The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 2010

The Gallup Poll Public Opinion 2010

Other Gallup Publications Available from SR Books: The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935–1997 ISBN 0-8420-2587-1 (1999) The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion Annual Series 2009 (ISBN 978-1-4422-0519-2) 2008 (ISBN 978-1-4422-0105-7) 2007 (ISBN 0-7425-6239-5) 2006 (ISBN 0-7425-5876-2) 2005 (ISBN 0-7425-5258-6) 2004 (ISBN 0-7425-5138-5) 2003 (ISBN 0-8420-5003-5) 2002 (ISBN 0-8420-5002-7) 2001 (ISBN 0-8420-5001-9) 2000 (ISBN 0-8420-5000-0) 1999 (ISBN 0-8420-2699-1) 1998 (ISBN 0-8420-2698-3) 1997 (ISBN 0-8420-2697-9) 1996 (ISBN 0-8420-2696-0) 1995 (ISBN 0-8420-2695-2) 1994 (ISBN 0-8420-2560-X) 1993 (ISBN 0-8420-2483-2)

1992 (ISBN 0-8420-2463-8) 1991 (ISBN 0-8420-2397-6) 1990 (ISBN 0-8420-2368-2) 1989 (ISBN 0-8420-2344-5) 1988 (ISBN 0-8420-2330-5) 1987 (ISBN 0-8420-2292-9) 1986 (ISBN 0-8420-2275-0) 1985 (ISBN 0-8420-2249-X) 1984 (ISBN 0-8420-2234-1) 1983 (ISBN 0-8420-2220-1) 1982 (ISBN 0-8420-2214-7) 1981 (ISBN 0-8420-2200-7) 1980 (ISBN 0-8420-2181-7) 1979 (ISBN 0-8420-2170-1) 1978 (ISBN 0-8420-2159-0) 1972–77 (ISBN 0-8420-2129-9, 2 vols.) 1935–71 (ISBN 0-394-47270-5, 3 vols.)

International Polls The International Gallup Polls: Public Opinion, 1979 ISBN 0-8420-2180-9 (1981) The International Gallup Polls: Public Opinion, 1978 ISBN 0-8420-2162-0-9 (1980) The Gallup International Opinion Polls: France, 1939, 1944–1975 2 volumes ISBN 0-394-40998-1 (1976) The Gallup International Opinion Polls: Great Britain, 1937–1975 2 volumes ISBN 0-394-40992-2 (1976)

The Gallup Poll Public Opinion 2010

EDITED BY FRANK NEWPORT

ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD PUBLISHERS, INC. Lanham • Boulder • New York • Toronto • Oxford

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Gallup Poll represents the efforts of a number of talented and dedicated individuals. I wish to express my gratitude to James Clifton, Chairman and CEO of Gallup, whose continuing vision and commitment to the value of social and economic analysis of poll data undergirds all that is in this volume. I also acknowledge the central role of the Poll staff, including Jeffrey Jones, Gallup Poll Managing Editor; Lydia Saad, Gallup Poll Senior Editor; Lymari Morales, Managing News Editor of Gallup.com; Elizabeth Mendes, Deputy Managing Editor of Gallup.com; and Tracey Sugar, who compiled the Chronology. Judith Keneman, Assistant to the Editor in Chief, edited the text, selected the graphs, and managed the assembly of materials and the publication process. Professor Fred Israel, City University of New York and George Gallup, Jr. deserve special credit for their contributions to the first 26 volumes in this series. Alec Gallup (1928-2009) was the co-editor of the Gallup Poll series for many years and was the key leader of the Gallup Poll for over 50 years. It is with deep appreciation that we remember Alec’s central role in the history of the Gallup Poll.

ROWMAN & LITTLEFIELD PUBLISHERS, INC. Published in the United States of America by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. A wholly owned subsidiary of The Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group, Inc. 4501 Forbes Boulevard, Suite 200, Lanham, Maryland 20706 www.rowmanlittlefield.com PO Box 317 Oxford OX2 9RU, UK Copyright © 2011 by The Gallup Organization All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

ISSN 0195-962X Cloth ISBN-13: 978-1-4422-0991-6 eISBN: 978-1-4422-0993-0

Printed in the United States of America

°°

™

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992.

CONTENTS Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. vii The Sample ............................................................................................................................................... ix Descriptions of Gallup Economic Measures Used in This Volume ........................................................ xiii About the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index .................................................................................... xv State of the States Polls ............................................................................................................................ xv Gallup Poll Accuracy Record: Presidential Elections ........................................................................... xvii 2010 Chronology .................................................................................................................................... xix Polls ........................................................................................................................................................... 1 Index ...................................................................................................................................................... 461

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INTRODUCTION The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 2010 contains the findings of the more than 500 Gallup Poll reports released to the American public during the year 2010. The latest volume reveals the attitudes and opinions of individuals and key groups within the American population concerning national and international issues and events of the year, and reports on Americans’ views of the economy, their personal financial situation and well-being, and the political arena. The 2010 volume is the most recent addition to the 36-volume Gallup collection, Public Opinion, 19352009, the largest compilation of public opinion findings ever published and one of the largest reference works produced on any subject. The Gallup collection documents the attitudes and opinions of Americans on national and international issues and events from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s second term to the present. In 2007 a new index volume was published, so that with the previous index volumes, readers can search for topics all the way back to 1935. Shown in detail are results of tens of thousands of questions that the Gallup Poll—the world’s oldest and most respected public opinion poll—has asked of the public over the last seven and a half decades. Results of the survey questions appear in the Gallup Poll reports reproduced in the 36 volumes. These reports, the first of which was released on October 20, 1935, have been provided on a continuous basis since that time, most recently as daily updates on Gallup’s website, gallup.com. The 36-volume collection documents public opinion from 1935 to the present in the following five separate and distinct areas: 1. Measuring the Strength of Support for the President, Political Candidates, and Political Parties. For over seventy years, Gallup has measured, on a continuous basis, the strength of support for the president, for the congressional opposition, and for various political candidates and parties in national

2.

3.

4.

5.

elections. This is the role most closely associated with Gallup in the public’s mind. Monitoring the Economy. An important Gallup Poll objective has been monitoring the U.S. economy in all of its permutations from the perspective of the American consumer. Gallup now measures unemployment and job creation and assesses American’s views on economic conditions, the job market, and personal financial concerns on a daily basis—providing a continuous record of this vital component of the U.S. economy. Gauging and Charting the Public’s Mood. From its earliest days the Gallup Poll has sought to determine, on an ongoing basis, Americans’ satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the direction in which the nation appeared to be headed and with the way they thought that their personal lives were progressing. This process also has involved regular assessments of the people’s mood regarding the state of the nation’s economy as well as the status of their personal finances, their jobs, and other aspects of their lives. Recording the Public’s Response to Major News Events. Gallup has recorded the public’s attitudes and opinions in response to every major news event of the last seven decades. Examples include Adolf Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union, the bombing of Pearl Harbor, the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima, the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, the moon landing, the taking of U.S. hostages in Iran, the O.J. Simpson trial verdict, the impeachment of President Bill Clinton, the 9/11/01 terrorist attacks, the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath, and the election of the nation’s first black president in 2008. Measuring Americans’ Views on Key Policy Issues. A primary ongoing Gallup polling activity has been to document the collective will of the American people in terms of major policy issues and initiatives under consideration by elected representatives. PUBLIC OPINION 2010

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Gallup routinely measures Americans’ priorities, including monthly assessments of the most important problem facing the nation, interest in and awareness of issues and pending legislation, and overall sentiments on pressing national issues. 6. Tracking America’s Well-being and Health. Since 2008, Gallup has tracked America’s subjective well-being and personal health assessments on a daily basis as part of the Gallup-Healthways Wellbeing Index. Two of the most frequently asked questions concerning the Gallup Poll are: Who pays for or provides financial support to the Poll? And who determines which topics are covered by the Poll or, more specifically, who decides which questions are asked on Gallup surveys? Since its founding in 1935 the Gallup Poll has been underwritten by Gallup itself, in the public interest, and by the nation’s media. In recent years, funding has come from the national daily newspaper USA Today. The Gallup Poll also receives financial support from subscriptions to the Gallup Brain, this annual volume, and partners with innovative businesses who are vitally interested in understanding human attitudes and behavior. Suggestions for poll questions come from a wide variety of sources, including USA Today, other print and broadcast media, from institutions as well as from individuals, and from broad editorial consideration of the key and pressing issues facing the nation. In addition, the public themselves are regularly questioned about the problems and issues facing the nation as they perceive them. Their answers establish priorities and provide an up-to-the-minute list of topic areas to explore through the Poll. The Gallup Poll, as it is known today, began life on October 20, 1935, as a nationally syndicated newspaper feature titled “America Speaks—The National Weekly Column of Public Opinion.” For brevity’s sake, the media quickly came to refer to the column as The Gallup Poll, after its founder and editor-in-chief, Dr. George H. Gallup. Although Dr. Gallup had experimented during the 1934 congressional and 1932 presidential election campaigns to develop more accurate techniques for measuring public opinion, including scientific sampling, the first Gallup survey results to appear in print were those reported in the initial October 20, 1935, column.

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THE GALLUP POLL

Although the new scientific opinion polls enjoyed almost immediate popular success, their initial efforts were met with skepticism from many quarters. Critics questioned, for example, how it was possible to determine the opinions of the entire American populace based on only 1,000 interviews or less, or how one knew whether people were telling the truth. The credibility of the polls as well as their commercial viability was enhanced significantly, however, when Gallup correctly predicted that Roosevelt would win the 1936 presidential election in a landslide, directly contradicting the forecast of the Literary Digest Poll, the poll of record at that time. The Digest Poll, which was not based on scientific sampling procedures, claimed that FDR’s Republican challenger, Alfred M. Landon, would easily win the election. Over the subsequent seven decades scientifically based opinion polls have gained a level of acceptance to where they are used today to investigate virtually every aspect of human experience in most nations of the world. To a large extent, this acceptance is due to the record of accuracy achieved by the polls in preelection surveys. For example, in the nineteen presidential elections since 1936, the average deviation between Gallup’s final pre-election survey figures and the actual election results is 2.2 percentage points and, since 1960, only 1.7 points. Correspondingly, in the fifteen midterm congressional elections measured since 1950, the deviation between Gallup’s final election survey figures and the actual election results is 1.2 percentage points. These tests of candidate strength or “trial heats,” which were introduced by Gallup in the 1930s (along with the presidential “approval” ratings), demonstrate that scientific survey techniques can accurately quantify public sentiment. In 2008 Gallup began an unprecedented program of daily tracking surveys, interviewing 1,000 national adults virtually each day of the year, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-being Index project. Daily interviewing allows Gallup to track important health, well-being, political, and economic indicators on a continuous basis, and also creates large databases used for detailed analysis of small demographic, political, and regional subgroups. The benefits of this major initiative in survey research procedures will be apparent to the reader as he or she reviews the content of this volume. Frank Newport

THE SAMPLE Most Gallup Poll findings are based on telephone surveys. The majority of the findings reported in Gallup Poll surveys are based on samples consisting of a minimum of 1,000 interviews. Design of the Sample for Telephone Surveys The findings from the telephone surveys are based on Gallup’s standard national residential and cell telephone samples, consisting of directory-assisted random-digit telephone samples utilizing a proportionate, stratified sampling design. The random-digit aspect of the residential telephone sample is used to avoid “listing” bias. Numerous studies have shown that households with unlisted telephone numbers are different from listed households. “Unlistedness” is due to household mobility or to customer requests to prevent publication of the telephone number. To avoid this source of bias, a random-digit procedure designed to provide representation of both listed and unlisted (including not-yetlisted) numbers is used. Beginning in 2008, Gallup began including cellphone telephone numbers in its national samples to account for the growing proportion of Americans who are “cell-phone only.” Cell-phone samples are also based on random-digit dial procedures using lists of all cell-phone exchanges in the United States. Telephone numbers for the continental United States are stratified into four regions of the country. The sample of telephone numbers produced by the described method is representative of all telephone households within the continental United States. Only working banks of telephone numbers are selected. Eliminating nonworking banks from the sample increases the likelihood that any sampled telephone number will be associated with a residence. Within each household contacted on a residential landline, an interview is sought with the adult eighteen years of age or older living in the household who

has had the most recent birthday (this is a method commonly employed to make a random selection within households without having to ask the respondent to provide a complete roster of adults living in the household). In the event that the sample becomes disproportionately female (due to higher cooperation rates typically observed for female respondents), the household selection criteria are adjusted to select only the male in the household who has had the most recent birthday (except in households where the adults are exclusively female). Calls made on cell phones do not use the same respondent selection procedure since cell phones are typically associated with a single individual rather than shared among several members of a household. A minimum of three calls (and up to six calls) is attempted to each selected telephone number to complete an interview. Time of day and the day of the week for callbacks are varied to maximize the chances of reaching a respondent . All interviews are conducted on weekends or weekday evenings in order to contact potential respondents among the working population. The final sample is weighted so that the distribution of the sample matches current estimates derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) for the adult population living in households with a landline or cellular telephone in the continental United States. Weighting Procedures After the survey data have been collected and processed, each respondent is assigned a weight so that the demographic characteristics of the total weighted sample of respondents match the latest estimates of the demographic characteristics of the adult population available from the U.S. Census Bureau. Gallup weights data to census estimates for gender, race, age, educational attainment, and region. Telephone

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surveys are weighted to match the characteristics of the adult population living in households with access to a telephone. The procedures described above are designed to produce samples approximating the adult civilian population (eighteen and older) living in private households. Survey percentages may be applied to census estimates of the size of these populations to project percentages into numbers of people. The manner in which the sample is drawn also produces a sample that approximates the distribution of private households in the United States. Therefore, survey results also can be projected to numbers of households. Sampling Tolerances In interpreting survey results, it should be borne in mind that all sample surveys are subject to sampling error—that is, the extent to which the results may differ from what would be obtained if the whole population surveyed had been interviewed. The size of such sampling errors depends largely on the number of interviews. The design of the survey methodology, including weighting the sample to population estimates, should also be taken into account when figuring sample error. The following tables may be used in estimating the maximum sampling error of any percentage. The computed allowances have taken into account the effect of the sample design and weighting upon sampling error for a typical Gallup poll. They may be interpreted as indicating the maximum range (plus or minus the figure shown) within which the results of repeated samplings in the same time period could be expected to

vary, 95 percent of the time, assuming the same sampling procedure, the same interviewers, and the same questionnaire. Table A shows how much allowance should be made for the sampling error of a percentage near 50% (which produces the largest uncertainty or sampling error; sampling error decreases as the percentages move further away from 50% in either direction). Let us say a reported percentage is 49% for a group that includes 1,000 respondents. We go to the column for a sample size of 1,000. The number here is 4, which means that the 33 percent obtained in the sample is subject to a maximum sampling error of plus or minus 4 points. Another way of saying it is that very probably (95 chances out of 100) the average of repeated samplings would be somewhere between 29 and 37, with the most likely figure being the 33 obtained. In comparing survey results in two samples, such as for men and women, the question arises as to how large must a difference between them be before one can be reasonably sure that it reflects a real difference. In Table B, the number of points that must be allowed for in such comparisons is indicated. Here is an example of how the table would be used: Let us say that 50 percent of men respond a certain way and 40 percent of women also respond that way, for a difference of 10 percentage points between them. Can we say with any assurance that the 10-point difference reflects a real difference between men and women on the question? The sample contains approximately 500 men and 500 women. Since the percentages are near 50, we consult Table B, and since the two samples are about 500 per-

TABLE A Recommended Allowance for Sampling Error of a Percentage In Percentage Points (at 95 in 100 confidence level)* Sample Size

Percentages near 50

1,000

750

500

250

100

4 (3.6)

4

5

7

11

*The chances are 95 in 100 that the sampling error is not larger than the figures shown.

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THE GALLUP POLL

TABLE B Recommended Allowance for Sampling Error of the Difference In Percentage Points (at 95 in 100 confidence level)* Percentages near 50

Size of sample 750 500 250

750

500

250

6 6 8

7 8

10

sons each, we look for the number in the column headed “500” that is also in the row designated “500.” We find the number 7 here. This means that the allowance for error should be 7 points, and that in concluding that the percentage among men is somewhere between 3 and 17 points higher than the percentage among women, we should be wrong only about 5 percent of the time. In other words, we can conclude with considerable confidence that a difference exists in the direction observed and that it amounts to at least 3 percentage points.

*The chances are 95 in 100 that the sampling is not larger than the figures shown.

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DESCRIPTIONS OF GALLUP ECONOMIC MEASURES USED IN THIS VOLUME Gallup’s Employment/Underemployment Index provides continuous monitoring of U.S. employment and underemployment and serves as a key adjunct to the U.S. government’s monthly tracking. This index— based on the combination of responses to a set of questions about employment status—is designed to measure U.S. employment accurately, in accordance with International Conference of Labour Statisticians standards. Based on an individual’s responses to the question series (some of which are asked of only a subset of respondents), Gallup classifies respondents into one of six employment categories: employed full time for an employer; employed full time for self; employed part time, but do not want to work full time; employed part time, but want to work full time; unemployed; and out of the workforce. Using these categorizations, Gallup further divides the workforce into those who are employed and those who are underemployed. Employed respondents are those in the workforce who are either employed full time or working part time but do not want to work full time. Underemployed respondents are those in the workforce who are either unemployed or employed part time, but want to work full time. Gallup interviews 1,000 Americans daily—or about 30,000 per month. Because of its daily tracking of other political, business, and well-being measures, Gallup provides insights not available from any other source on the health, well-being, optimism, financial situations, and politics of those who are working or seeking work. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is based on the combined responses to two questions asking Americans, first, to rate economic conditions in this country today and, second, whether they think economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse. The resulting index correlates at a .96 level with the Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and at a .84 level with the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. Gallup’s

Economic Confidence Index is updated daily, based on interviews conducted the previous night, as well as weekly, providing a far more up-to-date assessment than the monthly reports from the two traditional indices, which are often weeks old when issued. Further, Gallup’s monthly sample of about 15,000 consumers far exceeds the Reuters/Michigan sample of 500 and the Conference Board’s undisclosed but widely assumed-to-be sample of about 3,500 mail-in surveys. Gallup’s Job Creation Index is based on employed Americans’ estimates of their companies’ hiring and firing practices. Gallup asks its sample of employed Americans each day whether their companies are hiring new people and expanding the size of their workforces, not changing the size of their workforces, or letting people go and reducing the size of their workforces. The resulting index—computed on a daily and a weekly basis by subtracting the percentage of employers letting people go from the percentage hiring—is a realtime indicator of the nation’s employment picture across all industry and business sectors. Gallup analysis indicates that the Job Creation Index is an excellent predictor of weekly jobless claims that the U.S. Labor Department reports each Thursday. The index has about a 90% chance of predicting the direction of seasonally adjusted initial weekly jobless claims and a better-than90% chance of predicting the direction of seasonally adjusted initial claims on a four-week average basis. It also has a better-than-80% probability of projecting the direction of the unemployment rate as reported by the Labor Department on the first Friday of every month. In some ways, Gallup’s Job Creation Index is more meaningful than the government’s weekly new jobless claims measure, given that not everyone who is laid off files for unemployment. The index may also pick up hiring trends days or weeks before they are manifested in the official unemployment rate or other lagging indicators. Finally, the index measures job creation (hiring) and job loss (letting go) on a continuous basis. This

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provides additional real-time insight not available from broadly aggregated indicators and unemployment data. Gallup’s Consumer Spending measure is calculated from responses to a basic question asking Americans each day to estimate the amount of money they spent “yesterday,” excluding the purchase of a home or an automobile, or normal household bills. The result is a real-time indicator of discretionary retail spending, fluctuations in which are sensitive to shifts in the economic environment. Gallup’s average monthly estimate of spending is correlated at the .65 level with the U.S. government’s report of total U.S. retail sales (not seasonally adjusted) and exhibits similarly positive and substantial correlations to other government measures

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of retail sales. These positive correlations indicate that changes in Gallup’s spending estimates are related to changes in both direction and magnitude of actual consumer spending as reported by the government. Further, Gallup’s Consumer Spending measure provides estimates on a continuing basis, giving an early read on what the government eventually reports roughly two weeks after the close of each month. Gallup’s continuous surveying allows for analysis of spending patterns on a daily and a weekly basis, which is particularly important to understanding seasonal variations in spending. The spending measure allows business and investment decisions to be based on essentially realtime information.

ABOUT THE GALLUP-HEALTHWAYS WELL-BEING INDEX The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index measures the daily pulse of U.S. wellbeing and provides best-inclass solutions for a healthier world. To learn more, please visit well-beingindex.com. The Life Evaluation Index is based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks people to evaluate their present and future lives on a scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where 0 is the worst possible life and 10 is the best possible life. Those who rate today a “7” or higher and the future an “8” or higher are considered to be “thriving.” Those who rate today and the future a “4” or lower on the scale are considered to be “suffering.” The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated as the percentage of thriving Americans minus the percentage of struggling Americans. The Emotional Health Index measures daily smiling or laughter, learning or doing something interesting, being treated with respect, enjoyment, happiness, worry, sadness, anger, stress, and diagnosis of depression.

The Work Environment Index measures job satisfaction, ability to use one’s strengths at work, supervisor’s treatment (more like a boss or a partner), and the formation of a trusting work environment. The Physical Health Index is determined by sick days in the past month, disease burden, health problems that get in the way of normal activities, obesity, feeling well-rested, daily energy, daily colds, daily flu, and daily headaches. The Healthy Behavior Index includes four items: smoking, eating healthy, weekly consumption of fruits and vegetables, and weekly exercise frequency. The Basic Access Index is determined by access to clean water, medicine, a safe place to exercise, and affordable fruits and vegetables; enough money for food, shelter, healthcare; having health insurance, having a doctor, having visited a dentist recently; and satisfaction with the community, the community getting better as a place to live, and feeling safe walking alone at night.

STATE OF THE STATES POLLS A number of stories included in this volume are based on Gallup’s “State of the States” series, analyses which examine state-by-state differences on the political, economic, and well-being measures that Gallup tracks each day. State of the States stories are based on aggre-

gated data for six-month or full-year time periods, providing large enough samples for meaningful analyses of responses in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

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Gallup Poll Accuracy Record Presidential Elections Candidates

Final Gallup Survey

Election Result

Gallup Deviation

2008

Obama McCain Other

55 44 1

53 46 1

2 -2 0

2004

Bush Kerry Other

49 49 2

51 48 1

-2 1 1

2000

Gore Bush Nader Buchanan Other

46 48 4 1 1

48.4 47.9 2.7 0.4 0.6

-2.4 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.4

1996

Clinton Dole Perot

52 41 7

49.2 40.9 8.5

2.8 0.1 -1.5

1992

Clinton Bush Perot

49 37 14

43 37.5 18.9

6 -0.5 -4.9

1988

Bush Dukakis

56 44

53.4 45.7

2.6 -1.7

1984

Reagan Mondale

59 41

58.8 40.6

0.2 0.4

1980

Reagan Carter Anderson Other

47 44 8 1

50.8 41 6.6 1.6

-3.8 3 1.4 -0.6

1976

Carter Ford McCarthy Other

48 49 2 1

50.1 48 0.9 0.9

-2.1 1 1.1 0.1

1972

Nixon McGovern

62 38

60.7 37.6

1.3 0.4

1968

Nixon Humphrey Wallace

43 42 15

43.4 42.7 13.5

-0.4 -0.7 1.5

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2010 Chronology December 2009 December 1

President Obama announces that U.S. military will be deploying an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan to prevent Taliban insurgencies. This surge will begin in January 2010.

December 6

All but $42 million of the $370 billion that was loaned to banks and other companies has been repaid to the federal government. This is more than the Treasury Department expected.

December 15 The federal government will take over part of an Illinois prison for the transfer of prisoners from Guantanamo Bay. The closing of Guantanamo Bay was one of the president’s campaign promises. December 18 Five nations, including the United States, have reach an agreement on a deal to fight global warming. Leaders of the United States, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa will form an accord that will create a system for monitoring pollution reduction, require wealthy nations to provide billions of dollars to poor nations that are affected by climate change, and establish a goal of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 degrees celsius. December 21 Under a new law, “President Obama’s Passenger Bill of Rights,” the federal government announces new regulations on airline travel that will limit the amount of time that airlines can keep passengers waiting on the tarmac without giving them food or letting them off the plane.

December 25 A Nigerian man allegedly attempted to set off an explosive device hidden in his underwear on a flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. The explosive was a mixture of powder and liquid that did not alert airport security. The alleged bomber claims he was directed by Al Qaeda. January 2010 January 12

7.0-Magnitude earthquake strikes Portau-Prince, Haiti. This catastrophic quake is the worst in the region’s history in over 200 years, taking the lives of more than 200,000 people.

January 12

Internet giant Google threatens to sever their relationship with the Chinese government in response to the hacking of 34 email accounts. Google reached an agreement with China in 2006 to cooperate with the government’s censorship terms but security breaches of Gmail accounts has forced Google to rethink presence in China altogether.

January

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the government cannot restrict corporations to fund political campaigns. The Supreme Court cites First Amendment rights to support candidates as they choose. President Obama disapproves of the decision.

January 28

Ben Bernanke is confirmed for his second 4-year term as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. PUBLIC OPINION 2010

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February 2010 February 1

In his State of the Union address, President Obama declares that he wants an end to the military policy “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”. This policy forbids openly gay men and women from serving in the military. The Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, announces that repealing the policy is the “right thing to do.”

the bill include allowing children to stay on their parents’ health insurance plan until the age of 26 years and preventing insurance companies from denying coverage to people with “preexisting conditions.” March 24

February 18 Pilot Andrew Joseph Stack III crashes his plane into an IRS office in Austin, TX. Stack was apparently holding a grudge against the government and the tax system.

April 2010 April 1

The United States and Russia sign an arms reduction treaty and agree to cooperate against the threat of Iran’s nuclear program. This is a pact called The New Start.

April 4

Mexico and California are shaken by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake. It is the strongest quake experienced by California in the past 20 years.

April 5

A small West Virginia town is devastated by an explosion in the local coal mine. Twenty-five people are killed and 4 are unaccounted for. This mine has been cited for major safety violations eight times since ’09.

April 9

After serving 35 years in the U.S. Supreme Court, Justice John Paul Stevens announces his retirement. Justice Stevens is the most senior member of the court.

April 14

A volcano in Iceland erupts and causes massive delays in air travel worldwide. These delays were the result of a significant volcanic ash plume that spread over northern and central Europe. Millions of air travelers were stranded for several days.

April 20

A British Petroleum (BP) oil drilling rig explodes off the coast of Louisiana.

February 22 President Obama outlines his plan for a healthcare reform bill. Republicans are asked to submit their own ideas or agree to the President’s version of the bill. February 27 Chile is rocked by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake. Fatalities are relatively low, but as many as 1.5 million people are displaced. Strict building codes in urban areas helped to limit the casualties but adobe homes/buildings in outlying areas didn’t fare nearly as well. March 2010 Election day in Iraq is marred by explosions of two bombs that killed 38 people. Prime Minister Maliki and former prime minister Ayad Allawi are in a close race ahead of other candidates. Election results are not expected for several weeks.

March 7

March 17

Senate Democrats and Republicans alike approve a jobs bill that encourages small businesses to hire new employees who have been unemployed for 60 days.

March 21

The House of Representatives passes a bill that will change the healthcare system in the United States. Key items in

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THE GALLUP POLL

The United States and Russia report an agreement to lower the limit on deployed strategic warheads and launchers and will also employ a new inspection regime. President Obama and President Medvedev will sign a treaty that outlines this arms breakthrough.

Afghanistan, is killed in an American drone attack. American intelligence officers believed he was the third highest leader in the organization.

Eleven people are killed and 17 injured. Tens of thousands of gallons of oil are pouring out of the rig per hour into the Gulf of Mexico. April 23

April 30

Arizona signs into law the country’s toughest immigration bill. It states that illegal immigrants will be identified and deported if they cannot prove their citizenship or provide their visas.

NYC police evacuated Times Square after discovering a bomb in a parked vehicle. The bomb was made of propane, gasoline, and fireworks but did not explode. Instead the car started smoking and a t-shirt vendor notified the authorities.

May 5

American officials report that the Pakistani Taliban most likely played a role in the Time Square bomb plot.

May 10

Solicitor General Elena Kagan is announced as President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court. The court position is one that will be vacated by Justice John Paul Stevens in the summer.

May 10

June 1

After a scant nine months in office, Prime Minister of Japan Yukio Hatoyama announces his resignation from office, making him the fourth Prime Minister to leave in four years. He was believed to be a weak and indecisive ruler.

June 6

Two Americans are arrested at Kennedy International airport. They were on their way to Somalia with intentions of joining the Islamic extremist group Al Shabab, whose purpose was to kill American troops.

June 23

General Stanley McChrystal is fired from his position as commander of the American forces in Afghanistan. The firing is the result of a controversial interview in Rolling Stone magazine that included remarks that were demeaning to President Obama and his administration. General David Petraeus will step in to take McChrystal’s place.

June 28

In a close decision, the Supreme Court rules in favor of the right to bear arms applies to state and local governments. Speaking for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito said the right to self-defense is fundamental to American civil liberties.

The oil slick from the BP oil rig explosion is encroaching on the Gulf Coast shores of Louisiana. May 2010

May 2

June 2010

Gordon Brown, British Prime Minister, resigns as head of the Labor Party after Great Britain’s general election resulted in a hung Parliament.

July 2010 May 19

May 31

Major world parties including the United States, Russia, and China, among others, agree on a fourth set of sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. The sanctions are an attempt to deter Iran from enriching uranium. Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, the co-founder of Al Qaeda and top financial chief in

July6

U.S. Justice Department files lawsuit against the state of Arizona’s new immigration law. The law allows law enforcement officers to question suspected illegal immigrants about their immigration status. The Justice Department claims that immigration is a federal issue, not a state-by-state issue.

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July 15

July 15

U.S. Congress approves a landmark financial regulation bill which increases the number of companies that will be regulated by government oversight. This bill is supported by President Obama and the majority of the Democratic Party. The Republicans argue that the bill gives the government too much power in the business sector. British Petroleum (BP) caps its leaking well after 86 days of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico.

July 25

Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, is replaced by American businessman Robert Dudley.

July 30

Pakistan is devastated by massive flooding following two days of record rainfall. Hundreds are killed or left homeless. August 2010

August 5

Elena Kagan is confirmed as the U.S. Supreme Court nominee.

August 10

Ted Stevens, former senator of Alaska, is killed in a small plane crash in a remote area of Alaska.

August 17

Rod Blagojevich, former governor of Illinois, is found guilty of one of the 24 counts against him. After two weeks of deliberations, the jury claimed it was deadlocked on the remaining counts.

August 27

Continental Airlines and United Airlines merge. The U.S. Justice Department approves the $3 billion merger that creates the world’s largest airline.

August 31

Operation Iraqi Freedom ends. President Obama announces the withdrawal of combat troops seven years after the war in Iraq began. The remaining American troops are scheduled to leave Iraq by the end of 2011.

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September 2010 September 12 Sarah Shourd, an American hiker held prisoner in Iran for over a year, was released on $500,000 bail. Shourd and her two American companions were hiking in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq where they were arrested when they allegedly passed over into Iranian territory. September 16 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the percentage of Americans living under the poverty level is at a 15-year high. More than 44 million Americans are considered to be living in poverty, making this the worst economic period since the Great Depression. September 30 Rahm Emanuel announces his plan to leave his post as the White House Chief of Staff. Emanuel is expected to run for mayor of Chicago, his hometown. October 2010 October 8

The Obama administration’s National Security Advisor, Gen. James Jones, resigns after making statements to the media about Obama’s policies on Afghanistan and Pakistan. His deputy, Thomas Donilon, will be his replacement.

October 12

A moratorium on deepwater drilling is lifted by the White House. The U.S. government put the moratorium in place after the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and the subsequent oil spillage into the Gulf of Mexico so that it had the opportunity to address safety issues in the oil industry.

October 12

U.S. District Judge of California orders the U.S. government to stop enforcing the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Law.” This law forbids gays and lesbians from openly serving in the U.S. military.

October 12

The first of 33 Chilean miners is rescued. After 68 days trapped in a mine half a mile underground, a multi-million dollar operation pulls all 33 miners to safety via a capsule made for the rescue mission.

October 29

President Obama confirms that an airliner originating in Yemen on its way to the United States contained explosive materials. The U.S. government was tipped off about suspicious packages by the Saudi government. November 2010

November 3

Citing the slow economic recovery, the Federal Reserve announces its intention to buy $600 billion of the nation’s debt. The purchases will be complete by June 2011.

November 4

After the midterm elections, the Republicans gain control of the House of Representatives while the Democrats maintain control of the Senate. Representative John Boehner is on deck to replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

Cowen announces that he will dissolve his government and hold a new election after the 2011 budget passes. This announcement comes after the Irish government requested a $100 billion bailout package from the EU and IMF. November 22 A stampede kills over 300 Cambodians during the annual water festival. People began to panic and attempt to escape when a densely crowded bridge began to sway. November 24 Tom DeLay is convicted of money laundering and conspiracy to commit money laundering involving corporate campaign contributions. DeLay is the former House Majority Leader and faces up to 99 years in prison at his sentencing. December 2010

November 8

December 1

The moratorium on deepwater drilling is extended. The extension is announced by the Obama administration until stricter environmental and safety regulations are set in place.

December 2

The Child Nutrition bill, supported by Michelle Obama, is passed by Congress. This bill expands the breadth of the current school lunch program and implements improvements to the overall healthiness of the foods provided through that program. Mrs. Obama believes the program will help reduce both childhood hunger and obesity.

December 7

Julian Assange, founder of WikiLeaks, is arrested in Sweden for alleged sex offenses. He is denied bail by a London court.

President Obama announces his support of India receiving a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. It is presumed that a stronger relationship between India and the United States should help reduce the rapidly growing power of China. China and Pakistan are concerned about this relationship.

November 17 Nancy Pelosi is re-elected by the Democratic Party to lead her party in the next Congress. November 22 In an attempt to help save its flailing economy, Irish Prime Minister Brian

December 22 President Obama officially repeals the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” military policy.

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January 01, 2010 AMERICANS LESS HAPPY, MORE STRESSED IN 2009 Economy continues to heavily influence Americans’ mood by Dan Witters The percentage of Americans experiencing a lot of happiness or enjoyment without a lot of stress or worry declined slightly from an average of 48.2% in 2008 to 47.4% in 2009, according to data from the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Conversely, the percentage of Americans experiencing a lot of stress or worry but not a lot of happiness or enjoyment increased by about the same amount.

The Daily Mood Index: 2009’s Most Stressful and Worrisome Days As in 2008, the most stressful and worrisome days for Americans in 2009 tended to occur on or close to days when the nation was experiencing significant economic trials. On Jan. 29, Americans experienced the most stress and worry without happiness and enjoyment—the day after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the emergency economic stimulus bill. The day the bill passed (Jan. 28) and two days after the bill’s passage (Jan. 30) also made the list of the eight most stressful and worrisome days of the year.

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index surveys a random sample of at least 1,000 adults 350 days out of the year, or at least 350,000 adults each year, on a wide range of topics related to health and wellbeing. One of the questions asked each day is “Did you experience a lot of the following yesterday?” The question inquires about several personal experiences, including happiness, enjoyment, stress, and worry. Data are then compiled to determine the percentage of respondents who experience a lot of happiness and enjoyment each day but not a lot of stress and worry, and vice versa. The Daily Mood Index: 2009’s Happiest Days Americans’ happiest days of 2009 were on or close to holidays, consistent with previous mood index scores showing that days with more-than-normal time dedicated to socializing with family and friends enhance people’s happiness and enjoyment. Thanksgiving, 2008’s happiest day, slipped slightly to fourth place in 2009, replaced by 2008’s runner-up, Easter Sunday. Flag Day (June 14), which did not make the list last year, was the second happiest day in 2009, while Mother’s Day and Independence Day made the top five each year. As Flag Day is not a holiday that typically calls for any sort of out-of-the-ordinary celebration, it is important to note that it is possible that a day could rise to the top of the list without an obvious catalyst, which may be the case for June 14. This year, there is not a measure for Christmas Day as a major snowstorm that affected much of the country closed Gallup’s interviewing centers Dec. 26, but Christmas was the third happiest day in 2008.

Less than a month later, amid news of the U.S. government taking over nearly 40% of Citigroup’s common stock and with the Dow Jones industrial average falling to its lowest level in nearly 12 years, Americans’ collective stress level rose to the second highest point of 2009 on Feb. 23. The following day, President Obama spoke in a highly anticipated joint session of Congress, focusing heavily on the seriousness of the global recession. Included in the top eight most stressful and worrisome days of 2009 was one of the leading popular interest stories of the year, the July 7 memorial service for Michael Jackson, which finished third on the list. (June 25, the day of Jackson’s death, was the 31 st most stressful and worrisome day of the year.) Coinciding with Jackson’s

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service was news reporting that on July 8 seven U.S. troops were killed in Afghanistan, the deadliest day for U.S. forces in nearly a year. It’s important to note that it is not possible based on daily events to definitively determine the cause of unusual increases in stress and worry compared with normal levels. The events described in this article are simply noted to coincide with high stress/worry days as a potential source of effect on Americans’ mood. Survey Methods Results are based on annual samples that are greater than 350,000 per year and on daily sample sizes that are at least 1,000 per day. For annual results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.2 percentage point. Daily samples carry a maximum margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 04, 2010 MAJORITY OF AMERICANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT U.S. IN THE FUTURE Assessment of the future more colored by politics than in the past by Jeffrey M. Jones Sixty-three percent of Americans describe their outlook for the United States during the next 20 years as “very optimistic” or “optimistic.” Americans expressed greater optimism about the country’s future near the beginning of the 1990s and 2000s, but the current level of optimism exceeds that of Americans heading into the 1980s.

These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Dec. 11-13, 2009. In general, Americans are usually optimistic when asked about the future, in terms of the economy, their personal lives, or their personal financial situations. This is underscored by the fact that a majority still think good days lie ahead for the country as a whole— 2

THE GALLUP POLL

even at times such as the late 1970s and today when Americans faced difficult economic situations. However, that optimism has its limits, as 7% today say they are “very optimistic.” But that is not significantly different from the 8% who were very optimistic in 2000 and 10% who were very optimistic in 1991. Americans’ optimism about the future for the U.S. seems to be colored by their political preferences. With Democrats now controlling the federal government, 77% of Democrats are optimistic about the United States over the next 20 years, but half of Republicans are optimistic. Independents fall about midway between the two groups.

This 27-percentage-point Democratic-Republican gap in optimism is much greater than what Gallup measured in the past on this question. • In October 2000, near the end of Democrat Bill Clinton’s presidency, 83% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans said they were optimistic about the future of the country, an 8-point party difference. • In 1991, when Republican George H.W. Bush was president, 85% of Republicans versus 76% of Democrats were optimistic about the future of the United States, a 9-point difference. • In 1979—when a bare majority of Americans were optimistic about the future under Democratic President Jimmy Carter—the party gap was 7 points (59% Republican versus 52% Democrat). Republicans were more optimistic at that time even though Democrats occupied the White House and had the majority in both houses of Congress. It is possible that the larger partisan gap today could reflect a lack of consensus among Americans as to whether conditions in the country right now are generally improving. Americans were much more likely to say they were satisfied with the way things were going in the United States in 1991 (49%) and 2000 (62%) than they are today (25%). And Americans were quite a bit more pessimistic in 1979 (12%) than they are currently. However, Americans’ increasingly partisan evaluations of the future of the U.S. are more likely another outcome of the growing political polarization that has occurred in the United States in the last decade. The lack of a strong party difference in the 1979 data supports the idea that things are different today—one would have expected Republicans to be especially pessimistic about the future of the country in 1979 with the country struggling under Democratic control. In addition to political party, Americans’ optimism about the future of the U.S. varies by age and household income. Younger Americans tend to have a rosier outlook for the U.S. than older Americans. Whereas 75% of 18- to 29-year-olds say they are optimistic about the country’s future, 54% of those ages 65 and older agree.

January 04, 2010 STOCK OWNERS MORE POSITIVE ABOUT MARKET IN COMING YEAR Majority of Americans say stocks will be higher a year from now by Frank Newport Stock owners in the U.S. have become somewhat more optimistic about the stock market over the last 20 months. In December, 55% said it was a good idea to invest in the market—a turnaround from April 2008, when 55% said it was a bad idea. A majority of stock owners also at this point believe that stocks will be higher a year from now. Gallup has found similar differences by age in the past, though not to the same degree as in the current data. Lower-income Americans express less optimism about the country’s future than do middle- and upper-income Americans.

Again, the finding of less optimism among Americans residing in lower-income households has been consistent in past data on this question. Bottom Line Heading into a new decade, 63% of Americans are optimistic about the United States over the next 20 years. Any concern they have about the challenging economic environment the nation is still dealing with is perhaps overridden by their general tendency toward optimism. However, whether one is optimistic depends much more on their political leanings today than in the past. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 11-13, 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup has measured stock owners’ views of the market periodically over the last 15 years. This time period has encompassed a great deal of change, if not turmoil: the dot-com boom in the late 1990s, the drop in the market that followed, the uptick in the market in the mid-2000s, the stock crash of late 2008 and early 2009, and the recovery in more recent months. Stock owners’ views of the wisdom of investing in the market have generally followed the market’s pattern. • Stock owners were strongly positive about investing in the market in the late 1990s, with the net “good idea” minus “bad idea” percentage reaching a peak of +68 points in April 1998. • Owners’ views of the market dropped into net negative territory at several points in 2002 and 2003. • Investors became more positive about the market in Gallup measures in 2004 through 2007. • In April 2008, stock owners apparently saw the writing on the wall, and there was a concurrent change in views, with more saying it was a bad idea than said it was a good idea to invest in stocks. • In the current data, based on a Dec. 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll, stock owners have recovered some optimism. The current +12 net value on investment sentiment is not as high as it was at points in the 2004 to 2007 time frame, and not nearly as high as in the boom years of the 1990s, but is certainly higher than the -13 in April 2008. Investing Views Among All Americans Americans who do not own stock (37% of the adult population in December) are consistently more pessimistic about investing in the market than are those who do own stock. Hence, the trend line representing views on whether it is a good idea or a bad idea to invest in the market among all Americans—including both stock owners and those who do not own stock—is much less positive than the trend line among stock owners alone.

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Nevertheless, the general trend among all Americans follows the track of stock owners, with generally net positive readings in the late 1990s, a drop into negative territory in the early 2000s, a recovery from 2004 to 2007, the drop-off in investment sentiment in 2008, and a recovery in late 2009. At this point, the sentiments about the stock market among all Americans remain in negative territory, with 43% saying it is a good idea to invest in the market and 54% saying it is not. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 11-13, 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the 690 stock owners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 05, 2010 REPUBLICANS’ LIFE RATINGS DROP WHILE DEMOCRATS’ IMPROVE Election, economy influenced how Americans viewed their lives in 2009 by Steve Crabtree and Brett Pelham Throughout 2009, the percentages of Republicans and Democrats who rated their present and future lives highly enough to be classified as “thriving” were virtually equal, according to data from the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. This trend stands in stark contrast to 2008, when Republicans were more likely to be thriving than were Democrats. Gallup measures life evaluation using the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks survey respondents to evaluate their present and future lives on a “ladder” scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where 0 is the worst possible life and 10 is the best possible life. Those who rate their current lives on rungs 7 or higher and their future lives on rungs 8 or higher are considered thriving.

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THE GALLUP POLL

When news of the financial services meltdown first broke in the waning days of the Bush administration in September 2008, 57% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats were classified as thriving. In November, the month of the presidential election, Republicans’ life evaluations dropped much more sharply than Democrats’ or independents’. Then in January 2009, the month Obama took office, life ratings among Democrats and independents rose more sharply than among Republicans. By February 2009, the thriving percentages among Republicans (44%) and Democrats (45%) were virtually identical. Since then, the trends among Republicans and Democrats have tracked closely with one another, surging in March and April and then edging slowly upward throughout the remainder of the year. In December 2009, Gallup classified 53% of Republicans and 56% of Democrats as thriving. Independents, meanwhile, slightly lagged behind supporters of both parties through most of 2009—a change from 2008 when independents’ life evaluation scores were similar to those given by Democrats. Seeing the World Through Red- or Blue-Colored Glasses Ironically, these convergent trends clearly reflect the way partisan differences influence Americans’ outlook on life. Gallup research has consistently found that those whose party is in the White House tend to view a variety of national conditions (including the economy, national defense, and the nation’s schools) more positively than those in the opposing party. This effect even extends to Americans’ optimism about their own personal finances. Economic optimism has been particularly relevant to Americans’ life ratings over the past 16 months as they have struggled to regain their confidence in the wake of a severe recession. One of Gallup’s daily measures asks Americans whether they think their standard of living is getting better or getting worse. The likelihood to say “getting better” dropped steadily among all Americans for most of 2008 as economic conditions worsened. However, up until November, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to feel their standard of living was improving. After the election, though, optimistic responses began gaining ground again among Democrats, even as they continued to drop among Republicans. Since March 2009, Democrats have consistently been somewhat more likely than Republicans to say their standard of living is improving. This reversal holds true for party members of all races, though the improvement has been particularly dramatic among blacks. During 2009, perceptions of national economic conditions diverged even more dramatically between supporters of the two major parties. In December 2008, 15% of Republicans and 14% of Democrats said the U.S. economy was getting better; by December

January 06, 2010 OBAMA STARTS 2010 WITH 50% APPROVAL More than 8 in 10 Democrats but less than half of independents approve by Lydia Saad President Barack Obama begins his second year as president with 50% of Americans approving and 44% disapproving of his overall job performance. This is well below the 68% approval rating Obama received in his first few days as president, and matches his average for all of December—which included many days when public support for him fell slightly below that important symbolic threshold.

2009, that figure was dramatically higher (55%) among Democrats, but only modestly higher (25%) among Republicans. Did the economic fortunes of Democrats and Republicans take dramatically different turns over the course of 2009? Almost surely not, but their optimism levels did, and optimism can count for a great deal in the midst of an economic recovery. Bottom Line Life evaluation trends among all Americans have followed a rollercoaster route over the course of the economic downturn. Throughout the past two years, however, two factors—income and politics—were consistently related to respondents’ optimism about their lives. Political affiliation helps explain why the thriving gap between Democrats and Republicans closed in late 2008 and early 2009, and relative income levels help explain why Democrats aren’t more likely than Republicans to be thriving now. The importance of Americans’ personal financial status in the midst of a recession is obvious, but the differences by political party may be less so. Democrats at all income levels have developed a more upbeat view of economic conditions since Obama’s election, whereas Republicans have generally soured on the economy. These findings offer a stark demonstration of how politics influences our perceptions not only of how we view the world around us, but also how we view our own lives. Survey Methods Results are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted January 2008-December 2009. For results based on the total daily sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The latest job approval score is based on Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 2-4, 2010—the first Gallup Daily survey conducted entirely within the new year. President Obama has been walking the public opinion tightrope represented by the 50% job approval line since about mid-November, with his rating wavering between 47% and 53%. However, even when 47% of Americans approved of Obama’s overall job performance (in early December), slightly fewer Americans (46%) disapproved. Obama has yet to see his job approval rating descend to the point that more Americans disapprove than approve. Still, Obama’s initial approval rating in his second year as president is among the lowest for elected presidents since Dwight Eisenhower. Only Ronald Reagan—who, like Obama, took office during challenging economic times—began his second year in office with a lower approval score (49%). However, Obama’s disapproval rating is slightly higher than Reagan’s was (44% vs. 40%).

The 50% approval threshold is important because no sitting president whose average approval rating fell below this level in the year he ran for re-election succeeded in winning a second term. However,

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it may not have much significance relative to re-election at the beginning of year two, as the two presidents (other than Obama) with the lowest approval ratings at this stage of their White House careers were both re-elected, and one of those with the highest approval ratings (George H.W. Bush) was not.

more of a warning light that this initially muscular administration remains on the threshold of losing majority support. At the same time, 50% is symbolically superior to 49%, and perhaps offers some encouragement to Obama’s supporters that 2010 will bring some improvement in how Americans perceive the president.

Generation and Gender Gaps

Survey Methods

According to the Jan. 2-4 data, views of Obama among various population subgroups are similar to where they have stood in recent weeks. Obama enjoys 84% approval from Democrats, but closer to 50% approval from independents (currently 47%) and minimal support from Republicans (14%). A majority of nonwhites nationwide (76%) approve of the job he is doing, compared with fewer than half of whites (41%). Regionally, support for Obama ranges from a high of 58% in the Middle Atlantic states along the East Coast, down to 35% in the Rocky Mountain states.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 3,032 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-4, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 06, 2010 DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT DIPS BELOW MAJORITY LEVEL IN 2009 Had been above 50% in last three years by Jeffrey M. Jones Women overall are slightly more positive about Obama’s job performance than are men (54% vs. 47%), and adults under the age of 50 are more approving than those 50 and older. As a result, Gallup finds a stark difference in approval of the president between younger women and older men, with a solid majority of the former approving (58%), and a majority of the latter (55%) disapproving. By contrast, younger men and older women have generally similar views about the president.

Bottom Line The New Year’s tradition of resolving to make a fresh start in areas of deficiency doesn’t readily apply to public opinion of presidents. For President Obama, that means his position with the American public in 2010 starts about where it left off in 2009, which is to say hovering precariously around 50% approval. The meaning of the 50% threshold is somewhat relative. A 50% job approval rating would have been cause for major celebration by George W. Bush for much of his second term. But given the speed at which Obama descended to this level in his first year, today it is

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THE GALLUP POLL

The year 2009 marked the end of a three-year run of majority Democratic support among U.S. adults. Last year, an average of 49.0% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they leaned Democratic, the party’s first yearly average below 50% since 2005. Still, Democrats maintained an average eight-point advantage in support over Republicans last year, as 40.7% of Americans identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.

The 2009 results are based on aggregated data from all Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted last year, encompassing interviews with more than 21,000 Americans. In each poll, Gallup asks Americans whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Independents are subsequently asked if they lean to the Republican or Democratic Party. The 2009 yearly averages do not tell the whole story of changes in party support last year, as they to some degree obscure the sharp decline in the Democrats’ advantage over the course of the year. In the first quarter of 2009, coincident with the beginning of the Obama administration, Democrats enjoyed one of the largest advantages for either party since 1991, 13 percentage points (51.7% of Americans

identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, versus 38.7% who identified as or leaned Republican). In each subsequent quarter, the percentage of Democratic supporters declined, and by the fourth quarter, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to 5 points (47.2% to 42.2%).

The five-point party gap in the fourth quarter of 2009 represents the smallest Democratic advantage since the second quarter of 2005. Thus, the gains the Democratic Party made in public support during the last several years of the George W. Bush administration have disappeared. Gallup’s Daily tracking data showed similar trends in 2009. Though total Republican support did increase last year, this came mostly from what can be considered “soft support.” The increase in overall GOP support is owing to an increase in the percentage of Republican-leaning independents, from 11% in the first quarter to 15% in the third and fourth quarters. The percentage of Americans with a stronger attachment to the GOP—those who initially identify themselves as Republicans—was stable and, if anything, showed a slight decline over the course of the year. Also, there was a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic identifiers and a two-point drop in the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents.

Rise in Independence in 2009 One other notable development in the 2009 party identification data is an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying themselves initially as political independents (regardless of whether they subsequently said they leaned to either party). The 36.6% of Americans who identified themselves as independents in 2009 was up from 34.9% in 2008. It is not unusual for the percentage of independents to increase in a non-election year. But the 2009 average did mark the secondhighest percentage of Americans calling themselves independents in the just-completed decade, eclipsed only by the 38.6% average of 2007. Longer term, however, the 2000s showed a decline in political independence compared to the 1990s, with an average of 36.8% of Americans identifying as political independents from 1990-1999,

compared with 34.8% from 2000-2009. Meanwhile, the proportion of Americans identifying as Republicans was a point higher in the 2000s (30.9%) than in the 1990s (29.9%), while Democratic support was steady at 33.3% in both decades. Gallup did not begin regularly measuring leaned party identification until 1991. But the average percentage of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was similar in the 1990s (42.5%) and the 2000s (42.6%), as was the percentage of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (47.6% from 1991 to 1999, and 47.9% from 2000 to 2009). These decade-long averages suggest much long-term stability in party preferences, even though these preferences can move in the short term. Survey Methods Results are based on aggregated data from Gallup polls conducted in 2009, each based on telephone interviews with 1,000 or more national adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on the total sample of 21,905 national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 07, 2010 CONSERVATIVES FINISH 2009 AS NO. 1 IDEOLOGICAL GROUP Uptick owing largely to more independents calling themselves conservative by Lydia Saad The increased conservatism that Gallup first identified among Americans last June persisted throughout the year, so that the final yearend political ideology figures confirm Gallup’s initial reporting: conservatives (40%) outnumbered both moderates (36%) and liberals (21%) across the nation in 2009. More broadly, the percentage of Americans calling themselves either conservative or liberal has increased over the last decade, while the percentage of moderates has declined. Since 1992, there have been only two other years—2003 and 2004—in which the average percentage of conservatives nationwide

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outnumbered moderates, and in both cases, it was by two percentage points (in contrast to the current four points). The rather abrupt three-point increase between 2008 and 2009 in the percentage of Americans calling themselves conservative is largely owing to an increase—from 30% to 35%—in the percentage of political independents adopting the label. Over the same period, there was only a slight increase in professed conservatism among Republicans (from 70% to 71%) and no change among Democrats (at 21%).

as such starting in 2003. Across the same period, the percentage of Democrats calling themselves conservative dipped slightly, somewhat offsetting the increase among Republicans.

Partisans Shy Away From “Moderate” Label The proportion of independents calling themselves “moderate” held relatively steady in the mid-40s over the last decade, while the proportion of Republican and Democratic moderates dwindled. Between 2000 and 2009, the percentage of moderates fell five percentage points among Democrats (from 44% to 39%) and seven points among Republicans (from 31% to 24%). The 2009 findings come from an aggregate of 21 separate Gallup and USA Today/Gallup surveys, including nearly 22,000 interviews. The 1992 to 2008 trends also represent thousands of interviews compiled for each year. Thus, the margins of sampling error around the individual estimates are less than one percentage point. Trends of the Past Decade Just looking at the decade that ended in 2009, Gallup’s annual political ideology trends document a slight dip in the percentage of Americans calling themselves moderate (from 40% in 2000 to 36% in 2009), while, at the same time, the ranks of both liberals and conservatives expanded slightly. Gallup measures political ideology by asking Americans to indicate whether their political views are very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal. The detailed responses show a slight increase between 2000 and 2009 in the percentage of Americans calling themselves “very conservative” (from 6% to 9%) and less change in the percentage calling themselves “very liberal” (from 4% to 5%). Most conservatives continue to call themselves “conservative” rather than “very conservative,” and the same pattern is seen for liberals. Republicans Become More Solidly “Conservative” In addition to the very recent increase in conservatism among independents, a growing percentage of Republicans identified themselves

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Democrats Grow Increasingly “Liberal” Similar to the increased conservatism among Republicans, there was a gradual increase in the last decade in “liberal” identification among Democrats, from 29% in 2002 to 38% in 2007, and it has since remained at about that level. The effect of this shift among Democrats is most apparent when one reviews the trend in their ideological profile over the past decade. Whereas moderates constituted the largest bloc of Democrats in 2000, today they are about tied with liberals as twin leaders, and the proportion of conservatives has declined. By contrast, the expanded number of conservatives making up the Republican Party has merely strengthened the conservatives’ already strong hold on that party.

Survey Methods Results are based on aggregated data from Gallup polls conducted in 2009, each based on telephone interviews with 1,000 or more national adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on the total sample of 21,905 national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Other results are based on aggregated Gallup surveys of approximately 1,000 national adults 18 and older each. Sample sizes for the annual compilations range from approximately 10,000 to approximately 40,000. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 08, 2010 MORE AMERICANS WENT UNINSURED IN 2009 THEN IN 2008 Increase in number without health insurance spans across demographic groups by Elizabeth Mendes

And despite the recent uptick in conservatism among independents, the largest segment continues to be moderate (although by a smaller margin than previously).

While President Obama works with House and Senate leaders to hammer out a final healthcare bill before the State of the Union address, the legislation’s goal of expanding coverage to the uninsured will need to cover a larger pool of Americans who are without health insurance. According to the Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index, an average of 16.2% of American adults lacked health insurance coverage in 2009, up from 14.8% in 2008.

Bottom Line Political independents showed increased attachment to the “conservative” label in 2009, boosting the overall ranks of that group so that it now clearly outnumbers moderates in Gallup’s annual averages for the first time since 2004. Longer term, the proportions of Americans calling themselves conservative as well as liberal expanded slightly this past decade, largely because of increased partisan attachment to each label. At the same time, the percentage of “moderates” has dwindled, underscoring the heightened polarization of American politics as the nation heads into a new decade.

The number of uninsured was generally below 15% in 2008 until it began to increase in November of that year, coincident with the worst of the economic crisis. With some month-to-month fluctuations, the number of uninsured Americans has remained elevated since that time. Gallup and Healthways ask at least 1,000 Americans, aged 18 and older, each day if they have health insurance coverage. Each monthly average encompasses approximately 30,000 interviews. The yearly averages from 2008 and 2009 consist of approximately 350,000 interviews each.

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Demographics of the Uninsured Hispanics continue to be among the most likely demographic segment of the adult population to be uninsured, with 39.9% reporting in 2009 that they are without healthcare coverage, up from 37.0% in 2008, and more than double the current national average. Along with Hispanics, Americans aged 18 to 29 (28.4%) and those with yearly incomes of less than $36,000 (29.3%) rank among the segments of the population most likely to be uninsured, as they did in 2008. However, in 2009, the proportion of low-income Americans who are uninsured exceeded the proportion of those aged 18 to 29 who lack health insurance after both groups were equally likely to be uninsured in 2008.

monthly samples are near 30,000 per month. For monthly results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. Over 350,000 surveys were completed in each calendar year, yielding percentages with maximum expected error range of ±0.2%. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 11, 2010 MORMONS MOST CONSERVATIVE MAJOR RELIGIOUS GROUP IN U.S. Six out of 10 Mormons are politically conservative by Frank Newport Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, are the most conservative major religious group in the country, with 59% identifying as conservative, 31% as moderate, and 8% as liberal.

Groups who are among the most likely to be uninsured also, for the most part, experienced the largest increases in percentage uninsured in 2009 compared with 2008. From 2008 to 2009, the percentage of uninsured low-income Americans, Hispanics, and blacks increased by 2.9 percentage points. Americans aged 65 and older and those with yearly incomes of $36,000 or greater experienced essentially no change in the percentage of uninsured in 2009 compared with 2008. There was a slight decrease in the already low percentage of those without health insurance among those with $90,000+ household incomes. Bottom Line Despite marginal fluctuation from month to month, the percentage of uninsured in the United States clearly rose in 2009 from 2008 levels. Given the large sample sizes from both years, the change of 1.4 points is significant. While Hispanics continued to be among the most likely to be uninsured in 2009, they, along with almost every other demographic group, saw an upswing in the percentage of those without health coverage last year compared with 2008. The elderly and those with higher incomes were the two groups immune to significant year-over-year increases. Survey Methods For the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day. All

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THE GALLUP POLL

The ideological leanings of Mormons have become of greater interest in recent years as a result of Mormon positions on the moral issue of gay marriage. Mormon efforts on behalf of the successful November 2008 Proposition 8 in California—which restricted legal marriage to opposite-sex couples—were in particular subject to intense media focus. Although it is assumed that Mormons are conservative, their relatively small numbers in the U.S.—about 1.7% of the 18+ adult population in Gallup’s tracking—make routine survey analysis of their political and ideological leanings difficult. Gallup’s large database of Daily tracking interviews allows for the aggregation of enough Americans who identify as Mormons to conduct meaningful analysis. The current analysis of Mormon ideology is based on more than 350,000 Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted in 2009, including 5,819 interviews with Mormons. The 59% of Mormons who identify as conservative is the largest such percentage of any major religious group included in this analysis. The next-most-conservative group are Protestants (including nonCatholic Christians), with 46% identifying as conservative. (This review does not include analysis of specific denominations into which Protestants can be subdivided, of which there are hundreds.) Thirty-nine percent of Catholics are conservative. Less than a quar-

ter of Jews, Muslims, those who identify with other religions, and those with no religious identity identify as conservatives. Mormons’ conservatism is also apparent from a review of the more detailed self-categorization of ideology included in Gallup’s daily tracking.

Bottom Line Mormons are both the most Republican and the most conservative of any of the major religious groups in the U.S. today. Survey Methods The 16% of Mormons who categorize themselves as very conservative is the largest percentage for any of the major religious groups, while the 1% who are “very liberal” is the smallest. A recent Gallup analysis showed that Mormons have the highest percentage identification with the Republican Party of any major religious group. It is thus not surprising to find that the 49% of Mormons who self-identify as both conservative and Republican is the highest of any major religious group, significantly larger than the 31% of Protestants/other non-Catholic Christians who can be so categorized.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 353,845 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted in 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Results for Americans who identify as Mormon are based on telephone interviews with 5,819 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted during 2009. For results based on the sample of Mormons, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 12, 2010 HEALTHCARE BILL SUPPORT TICKS UP; PUBLIC STILL DIVIDED Forty-nine percent favor passage of bill; 46% oppose by Lydia Saad Mormons Living in Utah vs. Those Living Elsewhere Gallup’s 2009 data show that 34% of adult Mormons live in Utah. Utah became the major center of the Latter-day Saints when the Brigham Young-led group fled westward in the 1840s after being persecuted in New York state, Missouri, and Illinois. The headquarters of the Mormon church today remains in Salt Lake City. However, whether a Mormon lives in Utah does not appear to make a significant difference in his or her ideology. The percentage of Mormons living in Utah who are conservative is little different from the conservative percentage among Mormons living elsewhere in the United States. It is interesting to note that Mormons living outside of Utah are slightly less likely to be frequent church attenders than are Mormons living in Utah. The former group, however, still reports church attendance that is significantly above the U.S. average.

Americans’ support for U.S. healthcare legislation has crept up incrementally since early November. Now, slightly more Americans want their member of Congress to vote in favor of such legislation rather than against it, 49% vs. 46%—a first since October. More broadly, however, Americans remain closely divided on the issue, with neither position attracting majority support. The latest results are from a Jan. 8-10 Gallup survey. The framework for the Gallup question—which asks Americans about passing healthcare reform legislation “this year”—has changed with the turning of the calendar. Whereas last fall, “this year” meant passing the landmark legislation in the space of only a few months, in the latest poll it is associated with a full year—which could make it seem like a far less hasty effort. However, that contextual shift does not appear to have affected responses, as public support increased between November and December (despite the shrinking time frame) before the latest increase in January.

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months, although support is up slightly since late November among both Democrats and Republicans.

While overall public support for passing a healthcare bill currently outweighs opposition by a slight margin, the reverse is true among Americans who are seemingly more certain in their position. This is evident in the responses to Gallup’s initial question on the healthcare vote in which 37% of Americans say they would advise their member of Congress to vote for healthcare legislation this year and 41% would advise voting against it. In the follow-up question— in which respondents who don’t initially have a view are pressed to say which way they lean—more say they lean toward supporting the bill than opposing it. Hence, total support for the bill today is slightly greater than opposition.

In line with these partisan distinctions, support for passing healthcare legislation this year is higher among women than among men (54% vs. 42%), among nonwhites than among whites (67% vs. 41%), and among low-income Americans (63% of those earning less than $30,000 a year) compared to middle- (44%) and upper-income Americans (45%). Additionally, support is much higher among adults aged 18 to 34 (61%) than it is among those 35 to 54 (48%) and 55 and older (40%). Bottom Line Public support for passing healthcare reform legislation this year is marginally higher than it was three months ago, but still doesn’t rise to majority level. Thus, neither party in Washington can claim that advancing or, alternatively, defeating the legislation represents the will of the people on this important issue. However, the Democrats may have the politically riskier position (headed into a midterm election year), as more than half of political independents side with most Republicans in opposing the bill. Survey Methods

Independents and Republicans Still Cool on Reform Whereas a large majority of Democrats continue to want their member of Congress to vote for a healthcare bill this year, more than half of independents and a solid majority of Republicans favor a “no” vote.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 13, 2010 U.S. FEAR OF TERRORISM STEADY AFTER FOILED CHRISTMAS ATTACK Forty-two percent of Americans now worried, similar to 39% in mid-December by Lydia Saad This aligns with the basic pattern of partisan support for healthcare legislation that Gallup has observed over the past several

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THE GALLUP POLL

Gallup polls bracketing the 2009 Christmas Day terror incident—in which a Nigerian man attempted to explode a bomb hidden under his

clothes on a Northwest Airlines flight—document little change in U.S. public concern about being victimized by terrorism.

Just prior to the incident, a Dec. 11-13 Gallup survey found 39% of Americans either “very” or “somewhat” worried that they or a family member could be a victim of terrorism. In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Jan. 8-10, 42% are worried. Across the same period, the percentage saying they are “not worried at all” did fall slightly, from 28% to 22%. Americans’ current level of anxiety about terrorism is close to the average seen on this Gallup measure since Sept. 11, 2001 (which is 41%). Since then, the highest recorded percentage saying they were very or somewhat worried was 59% in early October 2001 and the lowest was 28% in January 2004 (a few weeks after Saddam Hussein was captured in Iraq).

of Americans in the same poll—including 73% of Democrats— approve of Obama’s overall handling of terrorism. When thinking longer term about U.S. anti-terrorism efforts, Americans offer a fairly positive review of the strides the country has made since 9/11. Twenty-one percent say the government has made a great deal of progress in protecting Americans from acts of terrorism since the Sept. 11 attacks and 53% say it has made a fair amount of progress. Far fewer—a combined 26%—say there has not been much progress (22%) or no progress at all (4%).

Anti-Terror Steps Get Mixed Reviews After his receipt of an intelligence report detailing failures that led to the Northwest Airlines incident, President Obama stated in a Jan. 7 speech that the U.S. is at war, and outlined several new anti-terrorism directives. Four in 10 Americans (42%) believe Obama’s prescriptions for preventing terrorism in the wake of the Christmas Day terror incident fall short of what is needed, but nearly as many (38%) say these measures are about right, and 4% say they go too far. No partisan group, including Democrats, is widely satisfied with the new actions being proposed. Among the three major groups, the percentage saying the measures are about right ranges from 50% among Democrats to 35% among independents and 27% among Republicans. Substantial segments of all three groups (including a majority of Republicans) think the measures don’t go far enough. Americans and, in particular, Democrats, are more supportive of Obama on the broader issue of terrorism. In contrast to the 38% who say Obama’s new anti-terrorism policies are about right, 49%

Bottom Line Although the Christmas Day bomber failed to bring down Northwest Airlines Flight 253, his attempt represented a clear act of terrorism against the United States nearly a decade after 9/11. Nevertheless, the level of public fear of terrorism today remains about average for the post-9/11 period, and close to where it stood in mid-December. Additionally, Americans are generally positive about the long-term progress the government has made on protecting the country from terrorism. Among the more visible anti-terrorism measures Obama ordered in his Jan. 7 speech is funding for body scanners for screening air-

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line passengers. While most Americans favor using this technology at airports, far fewer—38%—believe the entire set of new initiatives is sufficient to protect Americans. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Bottom Line While Americans’ wellbeing remained stable in 2009 compared with 2008, analysis of the six individual components of the composite index reveal that the Life Evaluation Index metric alone held up the overall score as each of the other sub-indexes declined. Lower monthly scores at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 pulled down the full-year results for both calendar years, creating somewhat of a mirror image of American wellbeing across the course of 24 months of uninterrupted measurement. A crucial question for 2010 is whether Americans’ wellbeing will reach new heights as the nation emerges from recession. The areas that suffered, including items in the Work Environment, Basic Access, and Healthy Behavior Indexes, are all areas that individuals and leaders can attempt to affect either through individual effort or policy action. Targeted efforts to improve these scores among the American public could pay significant dividends as the country continues efforts to rebound from the challenges of the past two years. Survey Methods

January 14, 2010 AMERICANS LOSE GROUND IN MOST AREAS OF WELLBEING IN 2009 Overall Well-Being Index score unchanged because of improvement in Life Evaluation by Dan Witters Americans’ overall wellbeing in 2009 precisely matched their overall wellbeing in 2008, with a Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index composite score of 65.9 for each year. However, how Americans got to that score was considerably different in 2009 than it was in 2008: 2009 scores fell behind for five of the six wellbeing sub-indexes, but the Life Evaluation Index score improved so much that it offset the declines in the other five areas.

Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 350,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2- Dec. 30, 2008, and Jan. 2- Dec. 29, 2009. For annual results based on the stated total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.2 percentage points. For monthly results based on the stated total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 15, 2010 AMERICANS BACK PROFILING AIR TRAVELERS TO COMBAT TERRORISM Seventy-one percent favor more intensive security checks on basis of age, ethnicity, gender by Jeffrey M. Jones

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, based on six subindexes comprising dozens of questions, provides a comprehensive measure of Americans’ emotional, physical, and fiscal health. The overall composite score and each of the six sub-indexes are calculated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 represents fully realized wellbeing. Gallup and Healthways initiated the Well-Being Index in January of 2008 and this report is the first spanning two complete years’ worth of data.

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THE GALLUP POLL

Americans widely endorse the use of profiling to single out airline passengers for more intensive security searches before they board U.S. flights, based on their age, ethnicity, or gender. Seventy-one percent are in favor of this practice and 27% are opposed. These results are based on a Jan. 8-10 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted in the weeks after the attempted Christmas Day bombing of a Northwest Airlines flight headed for Detroit. The incident sparked renewed discussion of ways to tighten security measures at airports, ranging from expanding the government‘s “no fly” list to more widespread use of body scan machines at airports.

The attempt has renewed debate over the use of profiling on the basis that terrorists generally have certain shared characteristics. The practice is used in Israel, a country noted for its tight airport security, but not in the United States. Two common objections to its use in the U.S. are the potential violation of individual civil liberties and unequal treatment for members of certain groups. The poll results suggest that Americans seem to give greater weight to protecting citizens against possible terrorism than to protecting against potential violations of individual liberties. The largest difference in support for profiling among key attitudinal or demographic subgroups is seen by political ideology. Eightythree percent of self-identified conservatives favor the use of profiling, compared with 47% of liberals. At 70%, moderates are much closer to conservatives than to liberals in their views.

Apart from liberals, other subgroups show majority support for profiling, although the level of that support does vary. For example, 87% of senior citizens (those aged 65 and older) favor the use of profiling, compared with 56% of young adults (aged 18 to 29).

Non-Hispanic whites (74%) are more supportive than nonwhites (63%), and men (77%) are more supportive than women (65%). The results by political party are generally similar to those for political ideology, though a majority of Democrats (59%) say they are in favor of profiling air passengers.

Bottom Line Each attempted terrorist attack seems to bring a renewed call for heightened security measures. It is not certain that the U.S. government would ever seriously consider adopting profiling of air passengers based on their personal characteristics as a means of preventing terrorism. But despite concerns about the practice, most Americans seem inclined to favor it. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 15, 2010 AMERICANS EXERCISE LESS IN 2009 THAN IN 2008 Having a safe place to exercise contributes to exercise frequency by Elizabeth Mendes With New Year’s resolutions aimed at slimming down and getting in shape top of mind for many Americans, Gallup-Healthways WellBeing Index data reveal that Americans have some ground to make up in 2010 in terms of exercise frequency. The percentage of Americans saying they exercised for at least 30 minutes 1 day or more per week decreased from an average of 69.1% in 2008 to 68.1% in 2009, with year-over-year comparisons down for 10 out of 12 months last year. Gallup and Healthways ask at least 1,000 Americans each day about their exercise frequency. Specifically, respondents are asked to report on how many days in the last 7 they exercised for at least 30 minutes. Monthly aggregates typically consist of 28,000 to 30,000 interviews. While many Americans may be recommitting to a more physically fit lifestyle at the start of the new year, Gallup data from 2008 and 2009 show that January is actually one of the months when Americans exercise the least. Exercise follows a typical seasonal pattern, with frequency picking up in the spring and summer and declining in the fall and winter.

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Parsing out the 2009 data shows that nearly half (49.6%) of Americans reported that they exercised for at least 30 minutes 3 or more days per week. Another 18.5% said they exercised 1 or 2 days per week for at least 30 minutes, and 31.3% reported they did not exercise on any day in a given week.

Frequent Exercise More Common Among Certain Demographics Looking specifically at frequent exercisers—defined as those getting at least 30 minutes 3 or more days per week—reveals that Americans making $90,000 or more per year (54.3%), those aged 18-29 (53.8%), and people living in the West (53.5%) are among those most likely to report this level of physical activity. Americans making less than $36,000 annually (46.6%), Midwesterners (47.9%), women (48.1%), and those 65 years old and older (48.3%) are somewhat less likely to report frequent exercise. Many Obese Americans Struggle to Exercise at All At 40.4%, Americans who are obese are far more likely than those in any other weight classification to report that they do not exercise for at least 30 minutes on any day in a given week. Normal weight Americans are more likely than those in any other weight group to report frequent exercise, with an average of 56.2% saying they exercised for at least 30 minutes 3 or more days per week in 2009. These findings add to Gallup’s previous reporting underscoring the importance of promoting regular exercise among obese adults that showed that even for the obese, engaging in some level of exercise decreases one’s likelihood of having been diagnosed with diabetes. Gallup determines weight categories based on respondents’ self-reports of their height and weight, which are then used to calculate standard Body Mass Index scores. Individual BMI values of 30 or above are classified as “obese.”

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THE GALLUP POLL

A Place to Workout In addition to asking about exercise frequency, Gallup and Healthways also survey Americans about whether it is easy to get a safe place to exercise in the city or area where they live. Those who do not have a safe place to exercise are far more likely than those who do to report that they did not exercise at all in a given week—42.4% vs. 30.0%. And likewise, those with a safe place to exercise are much more likely than those without such a place to say they exercise for at least 30 minutes, 3 or more days per week. The finding that those without a safe place to exercise are far more likely to report not exercising at all may point to one underlying factor contributing to the relationship between income and frequency of exercise. Lower income Americans, a group less likely to report frequent exercise, may tend to live in neighborhoods where there aren’t safe places to exercise. And lack of income would clearly be an obstacle to affording a gym membership. Bottom Line While the benefits of frequent exercise have long been proven and are widely understood among the public, many Americans have yet

low end, tied with Ronald Reagan’s, but better than Bill Clinton’s historical low of 49%.

to commit to a physically active lifestyle, with a consistent one-third of the adult population reporting that they are not exercising at all in a given week. Gallup and Healthways have been measuring exercise frequency in the United States since the start of 2008 and find that Americans reported exercising less often in 2009 than in 2008. Higher income Americans, 18- to 29-year-olds, those living in the West, and men all report exercising for at least 30 minutes 3 or more days per week at levels higher than the 2009 national average (49.6%). At the other end of the spectrum are the obese and lower income Americans, with the percentage of these groups reporting exercising at least three days per week falling significantly below the 2009 national average—9.9 points below and 3 points below, respectively. Additionally, Americans who say they lack a safe place to exercise are far more likely to avoid exercise completely than those who report they do have somewhere safe to workout.

When Obama took office, his initial approval ratings were among the highest Gallup has measured for a new president, and better than the early ratings for the more recent presidents. However, his public support dropped, with a sharp, nine-point decline in his approval rating from his second to his third quarter in office, marking one of the largest quarterly declines in Gallup polling history. More recently, Obama’s job approval ratings have hovered around 50%, averaging 51% for his fourth quarter in office.

Survey Methods For the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day. All monthly samples are near 30,000 per month. For monthly results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. Over 350,000 surveys were completed in each calendar year, yielding percentages with maximum expected error range of ±0.2%. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 18, 2010 OBAMA AVERAGES 57% APPROVAL IN FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE Third- and fourth-quarter slump drags average down after promising start by Jeffrey M. Jones Barack Obama averaged 57% job approval during his first year in office. Compared with the first-year averages of other presidents elected to office since World War II, Obama’s average ranks on the

Obama’s 51% fourth-quarter average ties Clinton’s and Reagan’s averages as the historical low fourth-quarter ratings for elected presidents. George W. Bush had the highest fourth-quarter average as a result of the rally in public support for government leaders after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Harry Truman (50%) and Gerald Ford (48%)—who were not elected to their first terms in office—had slightly lower fourth-quarter averages than did Obama, Clinton, and Reagan. Several factors likely contribute to Obama’s recent slump. Although U.S. consumers are more likely now than before Obama took office to say the economy is “getting better,” they continue to give a dour assessment of current economic conditions and are still more likely to say the economy is getting worse than getting better. Obama’s approval rating for handling the economy has declined over the course of the year and reached a new low of 40% in the most recent USA Today/Gallup poll. Poor economies may also have kept down Reagan’s and Clinton’s first-year ratings.

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The decline in Obama’s ratings seemed to accelerate when healthcare reform became the top domestic legislative priority in the late summer, and some members of Congress faced a backlash from angry participants at town-hall meetings to discuss the issue. The plan has struggled to gain majority public support, and Americans today give Obama a rather anemic 37% approval rating for handling healthcare. Obama’s attempts to improve the economy and expand health coverage have raised concerns among Americans about the dramatic increase in government spending and the federal budget deficit, and about the expansion of government power more generally.

successful conclusion of World War II before domestic challenges— including high inflation and widespread labor strife—took on greater importance in 1946. Lyndon Johnson (three points) and Gerald Ford (seven points) had more typical second year declines.

Survey Methods Results are based on more than 40,000 aggregated telephone interviews with national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between Oct. 20, 2009 and Jan. 19, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 20, 2010 APPROVAL TYPICALLY FALLS 5 POINTS IN A PRESIDENT’S SECOND YEAR Only two of last eight presidents have avoided second-year slump in approval rating by Jeffrey M. Jones Most of the last eight elected U.S. presidents, starting with Dwight Eisenhower, saw their approval rating drop in the second year of their presidency—on average by five percentage points. According to Gallup historical data, only George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush avoided a second-year drop; Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan experienced the greatest declines in public approval from year one to year two.

The average first-year to second-year drop is slightly higher— eight points—if presidents who were not elected to office are included in the analysis. This is mainly due to a steep drop totaling 37 points (from 79% to 42%) for Harry Truman. Truman took office upon the death of Franklin Roosevelt in 1945 and presided over the

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THE GALLUP POLL

Barack Obama begins the second year of his presidency Wednesday after averaging 57% job approval during his first year in office. But his recent approval ratings have generally hovered around the 50% mark, with his fourth quarter average (spanning Oct. 20 through Jan. 19) at 51%. This decline in Obama’s approval rating over the first year of his presidency is not an auspicious sign for his second year, based on historical patterns in Gallup’s data. The presidents who experienced the greatest declines in support from their first to second year in office had already shown clear signs of decay over the course of their first years in office (based on a comparison of their first and last quarterly approval averages of their first year in office). Specifically, Truman, Carter, Reagan, and Ford, who showed the four biggest declines in approval from their first to second years in office, also showed the biggest declines from the initial to the final quarter of their first year in office. In contrast, the two Bushes—who had higher average approval ratings their second year in office than in their first year— showed significant gains in public support over the course of their first year. Thus, it appears that if significant momentum in either direction is established over the course of a president’s first year in office, that momentum has carried over into the second year. However, two of the presidents who had difficult second years—namely, Truman and Reagan—were able to reverse that momentum in time to win re-election. If Obama’s support declines over the next 12 months, he could very well average below 50% job approval for his second year in office. That would not be unusual, as several recent presidents had approval ratings in the 40s their second year in office, including Truman, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bill Clinton. The obvious political peril for Obama—as was the case for Truman, Carter, Reagan, and Clinton—is that his second year coincides with midterm congressional elections. When presidents’ approval ratings have been below 50% in a midterm election year, their party has tended to suffer heavier seat losses. As was the case with his first year in the Oval Office, Obama faces a list of serious challenges. In fact, a recent USA Today/Gallup

Public opinion about the timeline for recovery is seemingly in conflict with recent economic reports suggesting the U.S. economy grew in the second half of 2009, possibly setting the stage for recovery this year. However, much of the current economic analysis is highly cautious, in part tempered by the continuing high rate of unemployment—thus, perhaps, contributing to Americans’ skepticism about a speedy return to business as usual. Americans’ outlook for recovery today is similar to what Gallup found in July 2009. Americans living in households earning $90,000 or more annually are more optimistic about when recovery will occur than are those in households with lower income levels; still, the majority of all income groups expect to wait at least two years before the economy starts to recover.

poll found 63% of Americans saying the challenges Obama faced when he became president were more serious than those confronting other new presidents when they took office. Obama’s ability to successfully meet these challenges—which probably begins with improving the economy and reducing unemployment—will help determine the trajectory of his second-year approval rating.

The extent to which the balance of power in Washington influences Americans’ economic optimism is evident in the partisan responses. Democrats—who generally have more confidence in the leadership of President Obama and the Democrat-controlled Congress—are much more optimistic about an economic recovery in the near term than are independents or Republicans.

January 20, 2010 AMERICANS SEE ECONOMIC RECOVERY A LONG WAY OFF Two-thirds (67%) believe it will be two or more years before recovery starts by Lydia Saad Americans are thinking in terms of years, not months, when pondering how much longer it will be before the U.S. economy starts to recover. The vast majority (67%) believe it will be at least two years before a recovery starts, and nearly half (46%) think it will be at least three years.

Much of the responsibility for economic recovery will be assigned—fairly or unfairly—to President Obama. Indeed, already more Americans disapprove than approve of the job he is doing on the economy. In general, Americans do believe presidents’ policies can influence the direction the economy takes. The poll finds about half of Americans—regardless of party affiliation—saying a president has “a great deal” of influence over national economic conditions. Another 35% say a president’s policies affect the economy “a moderate amount,” while 10% say they have little impact. Bottom Line

The findings are from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Jan. 8-9. With a full third of Americans (34%) saying it will be four or more years before a recovery starts, the mean response is 4 ½ years— putting the average predicted onset of recovery well into 2014.

The American public seems braced for a long road to economic recovery. Not only do most Americans expect to wait two or more years for a recovery to start, but the majority continue to believe the economy is getting worse. While such pessimistic views could help Obama in terms of keeping the expectations bar low, now that he is entering his second year, Americans are likely to

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increasingly judge his performance on the economy by his own economic policies. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 2,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-9, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 21, 2010 IN U.S., RELIGIOUS PREJUDICE STRONGER AGAINST MUSLIMS 43% of Americans admit to feeling some prejudice toward followers of Islam Analysis by the Gallup Center for Muslim Studies More than 4 in 10 Americans (43%) admit to feeling at least “a little” prejudice toward Muslims—more than twice the number who say the same about Christians (18%), Jews (15%) and Buddhists (14%). The findings are based on a new Gallup Center for Muslim Studies report, “Religious Perceptions in America: With an In-Depth Analysis of U.S. Attitudes Toward Muslims and Islam,” released Thursday. In a separate question asking Americans to express their overall view about each of the four religions evaluated, Islam is the most negatively viewed. Nearly one-third of Americans (31%) say their opinion of Islam is “not favorable at all” versus 9% who say their opinion is “very favorable.” This stands in contrast to Americans’ views of Christianity and Judaism, which are far more likely to be “very favorable” than “not favorable at all,” while Buddhism draws almost equally positive and negative opinions at the extremes. Gallup conducted the nationwide U.S. survey between Oct. 31 and Nov. 13, 2009, spanning the Fort Hood shooting in which a U.S.-born Muslim military doctor killed 13 people on the Army base on Nov. 5. The new report further explores variables that are associated with extreme prejudice (“a great deal”) toward followers of Islam as well as variables that may be related to lack of prejudice. To download the full report, go to www.muslimwestfacts.com. Key findings

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from the report will also be released next month in Cairo, Egypt. The Gallup Center for Muslim Studies conducts its Washington, D.C., and Cairo launches with its Muslim West Facts partner, the Coexist Foundation. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup Panel study are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct.31Nov.13, 2009. Gallup Panel members are recruited through random selection methods. The panel is weighted so that it is demographically representative of the U.S. adult population. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3.4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 21, 2010 “NEW NORMAL” PSYCHOLOGY DOMINATES CONSUMER BEHAVIOR Seven in 10 Americans report cutting back on how much they spend each week by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Consumer psychology continues to feel the aftershocks of the financial crisis, as the “new normal” still dominates self-reported spending behaviors. While it is encouraging that 48% of Americans say they are feeling better about their financial situations and 56% say they are feeling pretty good about the amount of money they have to spend, their behavior seems to reflect something different—a new normal. Seven in 10 consumers (70%) say they are cutting back on how much money they spend each week and 22% say they worried yesterday that they spent too much money.

spending and worrying about spending too much. These groups may be cutting back less, but continue to exhibit what may be thought of as “new normal” behaviors—spending less than they might have otherwise in the aftermath of the financial crisis. This is consistent with Gallup’s finding that consumer spending remained in a fairly tight “new normal” range during most of 2009. The pickup in spending—particularly among upper-income consumers in December—provides a hopeful sign that the “new normal” going forward could turn out to be somewhat higher than that experienced during most of last year. Consumer spending remains a key driver of private-sector economic growth in the U.S. “New normal” spending implies slower economic growth than in the past. It also suggests a continuing contraction in consumer credit, and further consumer and business deleveraging. In turn, this implies additional consolidation in the retail sector, including small businesses. Over time, consumer and business balance sheets will continue to strengthen, and spending will increase. However, in the short term, the key to increased consumer spending—especially among younger and middle-aged, and lower- and middle-income Americans—is an improvement in the jobs situation, particularly, the creation of fulltime quality jobs. Gallup’s data suggest that little or no improvement has taken place in the job market for many months. When jobs return to Main Street, average Americans will recognize that the recession is over and begin spending as they did before—not when economists pronounce it so. Survey Methods

Consumer “new normal” behaviors have remained largely consistent since Gallup began monitoring these consumer spending perceptions and behaviors on a daily basis since June 2009. The December 2009 results reported here essentially reflect the aggregated monthly trends. The degree of consumers’ optimism about their personal finances has remained about the same across age and income groups. At the same time, so have consumer “new normal” behaviors. New Normal Behaviors The greater optimism among older Americans concerning their personal finances and the money they have to spend makes sense since they are generally not as dependent on the job market as are those in other age groups. Older Americans tend to have fewer financial commitments. They also tend to be more dependent on the performance of their investment portfolios, and these have improved dramatically since the March 2009 lows. At the other extreme, younger Americans generally tend to be more optimistic across a number of attitudinal measures. Like older Americans, they also tend to be less dependent on the job market— many of them are students—and tend to have fewer financial commitments. Of course, upper-income Americans have reason to be more optimistic as they have benefited from the sharp recovery of their investment portfolios since March 2009. The second half of 2009 was much better for these Americans than the prior year. It appears that older and younger Americans are more likely than other Americans to feel better about the money they have to spend. What is stunning about these results is the way even older and upper-income Americans continue to report cutting back on their

For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup “new normal” consumer spending question results are based on random samples of approximately 125 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Results for December are based on telephone interviews with more than 3,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 22, 2010 IN U.S., MAJORITY FAVORS SUSPENDING WORK ON HEALTHCARE BILL Seven in 10 say Massachusetts election result reflects frustrations shared by Americans by Jeffrey M. Jones In the wake of Republican Scott Brown’s victory in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts, the majority of Americans (55%) favor Congress’ putting the brakes on its current healthcare reform efforts and considering alternatives that can obtain more Republican support. Four in 10 Americans (39%) would rather have House and Senate Democrats continue to try to pass the bill currently being negotiated in conference committee.

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The USA Today/Gallup poll was conducted Jan. 20 to gauge initial reaction from Americans to Brown’s victory in the special election to fill the remainder of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy’s term. Massachusetts voters elected a Republican to the Senate for the first time since 1972. Americans widely agree that the election result has national political implications—72% say it reflects many Americans’ frustrations, which the president and members of Congress should pay attention to, while 18% believe it is a reflection of political conditions in Massachusetts. Brown campaigned against the healthcare reform efforts and promised if elected to be the crucial 41st Senate vote against it, which would allow Republicans to successfully block its passage. According to the poll, most self-identified Democrats (67%) want Congress to continue working toward passage of the bill. However, an even larger majority of Republicans (87%) call for suspension of Congress’ current work on the bill. The majority of political independents, whose support has been crucial to recent Republican election victories in Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey, would also prefer to see the reform efforts put on hold rather than moved forward.

The public’s desire to slow down the Democrats’ healthcare reform efforts also appears to reflect doubts about whether the issue deserves the attention political leaders in Washington have given it over the past several months. A minority of 32% of Americans say President Obama and the Democratic leadership in Congress are right to make healthcare reform their top priority at this time. In contrast, 46% acknowledge healthcare reform as an important goal but believe other problems should be addressed first, and an additional 19% reject the idea that healthcare should be a major legislative priority. The poll attempted to gauge Americans’ political mood more generally by asking them to describe their feelings about the progress the Obama administration has made in its first year. Thirty-nine percent of Americans say they are pleased with the progress President Obama has made in addressing the problems facing the country, but nearly as many, 37%, say they are upset because they believe his

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policies are moving the country in the wrong direction. That leaves a middle group of 20% of Americans who describe themselves as disappointed with Obama’s progress because they thought he would have achieved more by now. Given Obama’s job approval rating of roughly 50%, clearly some Americans who express disappointment with the president’s lack of progress still generally approve of the job he is doing. For the most part, Democrats are pleased with the progress Obama has made in his first year, but 18% say they are disappointed and 8% believe he is moving the country in the wrong direction. Republicans’ views are nearly mirror images of Democrats’, with 75% upset with his policies but a relatively small group of 8% pleased with his approach. There are roughly as many independents pleased with Obama’s work (35%) as upset with it (35%), while one in four independents say they are disappointed.

Obama and the Democrats are on a bit of a losing streak heading into the midterm election year, having lost recent elections for high office in three states. However, even though these recent elections have gone in the Republicans’ favor, it’s not entirely clear that Americans are ready for a Republican takeover of Congress. The poll finds 40% of Americans saying the country would be better off if the Democrats controlled Congress, and 36% saying it would be better off if the Republicans controlled it. The remainder has no opinion or volunteer that it doesn’t make a difference which party controls Congress. That result is fairly typical of what Gallup has found historically, with Americans about equally divided as to which party is better to control Congress but showing a slight tilt in favor of the Democrats. However, it is important to note these opinions are based on all Americans, not necessarily those who will vote in November’s elections. Turnout in midterm elections typically favors the Republican Party. Bottom Line Brown’s election shook up the political world in both Massachusetts and Washington. President Obama has indicated he would like Con-

gress to hold off on healthcare reform until Brown is seated, which is consistent with the public’s wishes to suspend work on the bill. But the public is also not convinced that healthcare should be the top priority for the government at this time and endorses finding alternatives that can gain Republican support, which the bill under consideration has not received. Americans may therefore prefer a longer pause on the issue—one that stretches well beyond the time Brown is seated. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,010 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted January 20, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular telephones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

January 22, 2010 PUBLIC AGREES WITH COURT: CAMPAIGN MONEY IS “FREE SPEECH” But have mixed views on other issues at heart of new Supreme Court ruling

Public attitudes about the issues involved in the court’s Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision come from a nationwide Gallup survey sponsored by the nonpartisan First Amendment Center. The poll was conducted Oct. 1-2, 2009, shortly after the high court heard concluding arguments in the case. Americans Favor Limits on Contributions While corporations and unions are still barred under a 1907 law from making donations directly to federal candidates, the court’s decision Thursday allows organizations to run ads in direct support of or opposition to specific candidates; it also overturns 2002 McCain-Feingold restrictions on how close to elections corporate-sponsored ads can run. The 5-4 decision in the Citizens United case underscores the tension between protecting free speech and giving certain groups or individuals undue influence over election campaigns. Another poll question asked Americans to weigh the two considerations and say which is the greater priority for them: placing limits on how much individuals, corporations, and unions can contribute to campaigns or protecting the rights of these groups to freely support political campaigns. By 52% to 41%, Americans say placing limits on contributions is paramount for them.

by Lydia Saad Americans’ broad views about corporate spending in elections generally accord with the Supreme Court’s decision Thursday that abolished some decades-old restrictions on corporate political activity. Fifty-seven percent of Americans consider campaign donations to be a protected form of free speech, and 55% say corporate and union donations should be treated the same way under the law as donations from individuals are. At the same time, the majority think it is more important to limit campaign donations than to protect this free-speech right.

More specifically, 61% of Americans think the government should be able to limit the amount of money individuals can contribute to candidates and 76% think it should be able to limit the amount corporations or unions can give. Thus, it would appear that, regardless of Americans’ support for the principle that campaign donations are a form of political speech, and corporations and unions should get the same treatment as individuals, they are likely to have significant concerns about the practical effect of the court’s ruling, that is, more corporate and union money being poured into elections. The free-speech question elicits uncommon agreement across party lines. More than 6 in 10 Republicans and Democrats believe campaign donations are a protected form of free speech, but fewer than half of independents (48%) agree.

Bottom Line Prior to now, while corporations and unions could run issue-based ads, they could not spend a penny on candidates, except through

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political action committees. Now that they can run such ads, the country could be in store for major changes in the way campaigns are conducted. Does the ruling square with Americans’ views on campaign contribution limits? In some respects, yes. In others, it depends on whether Americans decide that independent expenditures are tantamount to political “contributions” or are merely free speech.

The second half of 2009 saw a significant improvement from 2008 in the percentage of Americans who reported eating healthy all day yesterday, ultimately resulting in a small but measurable net improvement for the metric in 2009. The reverse was true in 2008, when Americans reported healthier eating in the first half of the year before that number dropped off substantially in the fall and winter.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 1-2, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results for the sample based on 535 national adults in Form C and 488 national adults in Form D, the margin of error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

While more than 6 in 10 Americans consistently reported eating healthy all day yesterday in 2009 and 2008, they did not fare as well when asked to reveal the number of days in the previous week that they had at least five servings of fruits and vegetables. Generally, fewer than 6 in 10 said they did so on four or more days, and in this case, Americans generally did worse in 2009 than in 2008, only achieving year-over-year improvement in the last two months of the year.

January 22, 2010 IN U.S., UPTICK IN HEALTHY EATING, ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE PRODUCE But fewer report eating at least five servings of fruits and vegetables four days per week by Dan Witters As many Americans set an eye on healthier eating in 2010, GallupHealthways Well-Being Index data reveal mixed results on two key metrics in 2009 compared with 2008. While the percentage of Americans saying they ate healthy all day yesterday improved slightly in 2009 (to 66.4% from 65.9% in 2008), the percentage reporting eating five or more servings of fresh fruits and vegetables on at least four days in the previous week slipped to 55.6% last year from 56.4% in 2008. Gallup and Healthways ask at least 1,000 Americans each day about their eating habits. Specifically, respondents are asked to report on whether they ate healthy all day yesterday and in the last seven days how many days did they “have five or more servings of fruits and vegetables.” Monthly aggregates typically consist of 28,000 to 30,000 interviews.

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THE GALLUP POLL

The effect of the global recession, rapidly escalating unemployment, and a weak labor market on the consumption of fruits and vegetables is unclear, but could be a substantive underlying factor in the clearly suppressed levels of fruit and vegetable consumption recorded in the first several months of 2009. Bottom Line While the first half of 2009 bode ill for a strong year of healthy eating among American adults, the latter half of the year revealed improvement in healthy eating habits. Still, 2009 resulted in a net

decline in routine consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables. Underlying these trends, however, is the marked elevation of access to affordable produce, which serves as an important vanguard to healthy eating habits and has likely played a key role in the improvements seen in the latter part of the year. Given these results, the policy implications for leaders who care about wellness may be significant, as it appears that a substantial means of having an impact on people’s healthy eating habits is likely within our society’s grasp through enhanced portals of disseminating affordable, accessible produce to the American public.

support, with his approval rating among Republicans dropping below 30% in mid-February and below 20% in August. Throughout the year, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded 80%, and it showed little decline even as his overall approval rating fell from the mid-60s to roughly 50%.

Survey Methods For the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day. All monthly samples are near 30,000 per month. For monthly results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. More than 350,000 surveys were completed in each calendar year, yielding percentages with maximum expected error range of ±0.2 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Thus, the extraordinary level of polarization in Obama’s first year in office is a combination of declining support from Republicans coupled with high and sustained approval from Democrats. In fact, his 88% average approval rating from his own party’s supporters is exceeded only by George W. Bush’s 92% during Bush’s first year in office. Obama’s 23% approval among supporters of the opposition party matches Bill Clinton’s for the lowest for a first-year president. But Clinton was less popular among Democrats than Obama has been to date, making Obama’s ratings more polarized.

January 25, 2010 OBAMA’S APPROVAL MOST POLARIZED FOR FIRSTYEAR PRESIDENT Shows much greater party differences than approval for any prior first-year president by Jeffrey M. Jones The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats’ (88%) and Republicans’ (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton.

Overall, Obama averaged 57% job approval among all Americans from his inauguration to the end of his first full year on Jan. 19. He came into office seeking to unite the country, and his initial approval ratings ranked among the best for post-World War II presidents, including an average of 41% approval from Republicans in his first week in office. But he quickly lost most of his Republican

Obama still has three years left in his first term and possibly seven more as president, so there is much time for the polarization of his approval ratings to subside. However, if the current level of polarization persists through the end of his term, Obama would exceed Bush as the president with the most polarized approval ratings. Bush’s average Republican-Democratic gap for his eight years in office was 61 points. This included the record gap for a single approval rating: 83 points, which occurred twice—in September 2004 (95% Republican, 12% Democratic) and October 2004 (94% Republican, 11% Democratic). The political divide in Bush’s ratings is to some extent understated, though, given the rally in public support for Bush after the

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Sept. 11 terror attacks, when he received record-high approval ratings. Even with these approval ratings, he averaged a 55-point gap in approval by party during his first term. During his second term, the average party gap in his ratings was 68 points, higher than Obama’s to date. The accompanying graph makes clear how much the level of political polarization has grown in Americans’ evaluations of presidents in recent decades. Prior to Ronald Reagan, no president averaged more than a 40-point gap in approval ratings by party during his term; since then, only the elder George Bush has averaged less than a 50-point gap, including Obama’s average 65-point gap to date.

Bottom Line As a candidate and as president, Obama—like his immediate predecessor, Bush—sought to bring Americans together after periods of heightened political polarization in the United States. But despite their best intentions and efforts, both men’s approval ratings have been characterized by extreme partisanship—with high and seemingly unwavering approval from their own party’s supporters and very little from the opposition party. The way Americans view presidents has clearly changed in recent decades, perhaps owing to the growth in variety, sources, and even politicization of news on cable television and the Internet, and the continuing popularity of politically oriented talk radio. The outcome is that Americans evaluate their presidents and other political leaders through increasingly thick partisan lenses.

January 25, 2010 AMERICANS LEAN AGAINST LETTING MORE HAITIANS INTO U.S. Nearly two-thirds (63%) support keeping U.S. personnel there until basic services are restored by Lymari Morales With the situation in Haiti still dire after the Jan. 12 earthquake, and with a growing number of Haitians reportedly seeking entry into the U.S., a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds that the majority of Americans do not think the U.S. should increase the number of Haitian immigrants it accepts. There is a political divide, with 57% of Democrats in favor, and most independents (57%) and Republicans (67%) opposed. The results from the Jan. 23-24, 2010, survey come amid reports that immigration advocates and some members of Congress are urging the Obama administration to relax some of the restrictions on

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Haitian immigration. According to The Washington Post, discussions center on Haitians with relatives already legally in the U.S. and on injured children who are at risk of death without better medical care. The question used in this survey did not specify these types of special conditions; rather, it asked generally about increasing “the number of immigrants from Haiti allowed into the U.S.” Americans strongly support continued U.S. government assistance in Haiti, with 63% saying the U.S. should keep troops and government workers in the country as long as it takes to ensure basic services are restored and life is more or less back to normal for the Haitian people. Here, political adversaries agree, with majorities of Democrats (69%), independents (63%), and Republicans (56%) in favor.

Americans are for the most part satisfied with U.S. efforts to help in Haiti. The large majority (73%) think the U.S. is doing enough to help the victims. Two in 10 (19%) say it should be doing more, while 3% volunteer that it is doing too much. The question does not distinguish between public- and private-sector work.

Americans, according to The Chronicle of Philanthropy, have— as of Monday—donated more than $438 million to help with rescue, relief, and recovery efforts in Haiti. The majority of Americans, regardless of whether they have donated money to Haiti, say they worry that their money will not get to the victims fast enough or that it will not be used to directly assist the victims.

This finding comes from a Gallup survey sponsored by the nonpartisan First Amendment Center, conducted Jan. 20-21, 2010. The plurality of Americans (43%) say the news media’s performance as watchdog under Obama is on par with how they did during previous administrations; however, by 31% to 21% the remainder tilt toward believing the media have done a worse, rather than better, job under Obama.

Bottom Line Americans for the most part see the U.S. doing enough to help earthquake victims in Haiti, and nearly two-thirds support keeping U.S. troops and government personnel in the country until life is more or less back to normal. But Americans stop short of supporting increased immigration to the U.S. from Haiti as a means of assisting the earthquake victims. While the Gallup question does not ask about certain specific circumstances Haitians might face, the results suggest increasing immigration from Haiti would likely carry political risk. Survey Methods

More Republicans Than Democrats Crying Foul

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,067 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 23-24, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

In covering a presidential administration, reporters can adopt the tenacity of a pit bull or the affability of a lapdog. One way to gauge where the media as a whole actually fall on that spectrum is to do an objective analysis of all media content. Another may be to see how Republicans and Democrats react to the coverage. According to the new poll, nearly half of Democrats (45%) say the media have done an excellent or good job as a watchdog of the Democratic Obama administration, compared with 29% of independents and 30% of Republicans. Republican dissatisfaction with the media as watchdog in Obama’s first year is particularly great, evident in the relatively high percentage (39%) calling the media’s performance poor.

January 27, 2010 U.S. NEWS MEDIA GET TEPID RATINGS AS OBAMA “WATCHDOG” Barely one-third rate media well in their watchdog capacity during president’s first year by Lydia Saad Most Americans appear unimpressed by the media’s performance as government watchdog in the first year of the Obama administration. A third say the media have done an “excellent” or “good” job of filling this important role of a free press, 37% say their performance has been “fair,” and 27% rate it “poor.”

Additionally, a solid majority of Democrats (75%) believe the media are performing the same or better as a government watchdog

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with Obama than they did with previous administrations. Independents generally agree with this assessment, while Republicans are about evenly divided between those saying the media are doing the same or better, and those saying they are doing worse: 49% vs. 48%.

Appetite for Better Coverage of Economic Policies

10 Republicans, however, refuse to acknowledge that the media have done a good job on even one of the four issues rated.

Looking ahead, Democrats are particularly interested in seeing improved coverage of Obama’s healthcare policies, with the economy ranking a close second. Republicans and independents are largely focused on the economy.

The new poll also asked Americans to identify which one of several Obama administration policy areas they think the media did the best job of covering in the past year. Americans give the media the most credit on healthcare (24%) and the economy (20%), and somewhat less credit on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and terrorism. (This rank order may reflect the amount of media coverage devoted to each topic as much as it does the quality.) However, an even larger percentage—36%—do not choose any of these issues, or have no opinion about which has been best covered. Bottom Line

When asked which issue they would like to see the news media do a better job of reporting on going forward, the largest segment of Americans (40%) cite Obama’s policies on the economy, followed by healthcare (30%). Relatively few cite U.S. wars or terrorism.

Gallup polling in recent years has consistently shown Republicans harboring more skepticism than Democrats toward the mainstream news. In October 2009, Gallup found Democrats to be among the most confident of all major U.S. subgroups that the media report the news “fully, accurately and fairly” and Republicans to be the least confident (58% vs. 36%). The same poll found 74% of Republicans saying the news media are “too liberal” versus 20% of Democrats calling them “too conservative.” Still, both Republicans and Democrats are likely to be sensitive about the treatment President Obama gets from the press; given this, the best the media can probably achieve on the watchdog question is equal levels of criticism from both sides. A high proportion of Democrats saying they think the coverage of Obama’s administration has been excellent or good probably means it has been too lenient. A high proportion of Republicans saying the same probably means it has been too tough. With these figures currently registering 45% among Democrats and 30% among Republicans, the press may want to reflect on whether it did, in fact, fulfill its important role as government watchdog in 2009. And going forward, it may want to bear in mind Democrats’ concern about appropriate coverage of Obama’s healthcare plans, and Republicans’ and independents’ interest in better media oversight of his economic policies. Survey Methods

When identifying the best news coverage during Obama’s first year, all party groups rank healthcare relatively highly. About 4 in

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Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,026 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 20-21, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 27, 2010 AMERICANS ON THE STATE OF THE NATION: BETTER, BUT NOT GREAT Though up from January 2009, satisfaction with U.S. remains low by Lydia Saad Americans’ opinions about the state of the nation have improved in several respects since President Barack Obama took office a year ago. Still, today’s ratings are on the order of less bad rather than positive. Twenty-three percent of Americans are now satisfied with the way things are going in the country, up from 13% in early January 2009. However, 76% remain dissatisfied—well above the average 57% dissatisfied since 1979.

Consumer attitudes about the economy show a similar pattern. Americans’ confidence in the economy nearly collapsed during the Wall Street crisis in the fall of 2008, and has since rebounded some, but it remains profoundly negative. At the start of Obama’s term, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registered -52; today it is -28. But the high point for this indicator over the past two decades was +56 in January 2000.

Additionally, while the year-to-year comparisons show some improvement in public optimism about the country and the economy,

these levels actually peaked at various points in 2009, and have since declined. Hence, the recent momentum has not been in Obama’s favor. Americans are substantially less likely today to mention “the economy,” generally, when asked what they think is the most important problem facing the country: 25% now name it, compared with 57% in January 2009. However, this decline is partially offset by an increase in the percentage citing unemployment or jobs—currently 22%, up from 11%. Another reason the economy may be less top-of-mind for Americans is that the healthcare reform effort in Washington has steered a segment of the populace toward that issue. Nearly one in five Americans (18%, including 24% of Democrats) name healthcare today as the nation’s top problem, up sharply from 4% at the start of Obama’s term. The Gallup trend also documents slight increases over the past year in mentions of government/politicians, terrorism, and the federal budget deficit as the most important problem.

In line with Americans’ increased focus on unemployment over the past year, Gallup’s national Job Creation Index (based on the percentage of employed Americans saying their companies are hiring workers minus those saying their companies are laying workers off) suggests the job market is little better today than it was when Obama took office. The index for the most recent week (Jan. 18-24) stands at 0 (with equal percentages of workers saying their employers are expanding versus reducing their workforces), versus -3 for the comparable week in January 2009. Similarly, 9% of Americans today say now is a good time to find a quality job, compared with 13% in January 2009.

On a more personal level, Americans are slightly more upbeat about their own standard of living today than they were last January. The percentage of Americans now saying their standard of living is

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“getting better” exceeds the percentage “getting worse” by 9 points; this compares with a 0 score on the same index a year ago.

exception; the total lack of optimism about the prospects of finding a quality job in January 2010 is consistent across ages, incomes, genders, and regions of the country. Bottom Line In reviewing the state of the nation Wednesday night and charting his course for the coming year, President Obama can rightly point out real improvements in Americans’ evaluations of the country and the economy since he took office. However, his deteriorating approval ratings—dropping from 68% when he took office to 48% today—are a meaningful indicator that those improvements fall well short of what Americans expected from him. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 28, 2010 AMERICANS AGREE: QUALITY JOBS REMAIN HARD TO FIND One in 10 Americans think now is a “good time” to find a quality job by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist As the Obama administration and Congress shift their focus to the economy and jobs after the State of the Union, Gallup polling suggests they need to consider quality as well as quantity. One in 10 Americans (9%) believe now is a “good time” to find a “quality job”—a situation that has persisted over the past year, and a huge deterioration in job-market conditions from January 2007, when nearly half of Americans (48%) expressed optimism about finding a quality job. While Americans disagree about many things—and rarely reflect an overwhelming consensus about anything concerning the economy—their views about the lack of quality jobs are a clear

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Commentary Modeling based on Gallup’s Job Creation Index suggests that the U.S. unemployment rate is likely to exceed 10.0% when reported on Feb. 5, while Gallup’s consumer spending measure provides little reason to expect improvement in discretionary spending anytime soon. Hiring about three-quarters of a million census takers may temporarily help with the unemployment statistics, but these temporary, low-paying jobs reflect the much larger challenge: a lack of quality jobs.

Given this year’s approaching midterm elections, and the time it takes for policy changes to affect the economy, it may be tempting for the president and Congress to seek some kind of quick fix to create jobs and reduce the unemployment rate. And a 1930s-style jobs corps, like adding census takers, could have its supporters. However, Gallup’s quality job data show the real problem offers much more of a challenge than can be met by just increasing the number of part-time and low-paying jobs. The objective should not be simply to get the unemployment rate below double digits. Instead, it should be to return to the conditions of January 2007: a time when one in two Americans were optimistic about finding a “quality” job. In turn, this means the “pivot” in the nation’s capital should include not only an intense focus on creating high-paying private-sector jobs but also on improving education so there are highly educated employees to fill those jobs.

December of 2009, while those with employer-based health insurance declined over that period.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 28, 2010 MORE AMERICANS RELIANT ON GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE IN 2009 Three-quarters of insured seniors use Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits by Elizabeth Mendes With healthcare legislation hanging in the political balance, GallupHealthways Well-Being Index data find an increasing number of Americans are relying on government-based health insurance, while fewer are getting coverage through an employer. The percentage of Americans with Medicaid, Medicare, or military/veterans’ coverage increased to an average of 24.6% last year, from 23.3% in the year prior. The percentage with employer-based healthcare dropped to an average of 46.8% in 2009, from 49.2% in 2008. Also, as Gallup reported previously, more Americans went uninsured in 2009 than in 2008. Gallup and Healthways ask approximately 1,000 Americans each day if they have health insurance. Respondents who say that they do have health insurance are then asked if they get their primary health coverage through an employer or union, Medicare, Medicaid, military/veterans’ coverage, or through something else.

As would be expected, there is a distinct difference in health insurance type by age as Americans aged 65 and older qualify for Medicare. More than three-quarters of insured seniors report that they get their health coverage through a government plan (Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits). The majority of Americans aged 18 to 64 who have health insurance are covered through their employer or union. This number however declined slightly last year, as did the percentage of elderly Americans reporting employer-based health coverage. At the same time, the percentage of 18 to 64 yearolds reliant on a government plan for their healthcare increased somewhat from 14.5% in 2008 to 15.7% in 2009.

Snapshot of the Insured Monthly averages reveal that among Americans who report that they are insured, the percentage with Medicaid, Medicare, or military/veterans’ coverage increased fairly steadily from January of 2008 to

In addition to age, there are differences in reliance on government health insurance by several other demographic groups. Insured

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Americans who have annual incomes of less than $30,000 are among the most likely to say their primary health coverage is through Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits (46%). At the other end of the spectrum are those people who make $90,000 or more per year, 12.4% of whom report getting coverage through a government plan. When it comes to employer-based health insurance, 75.5% of higher income Americans and 36.7% of lower income Americans report they are covered through their employer or union.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 28, 2010 AMERICANS WITH POSTGRADUATE EDUCATION STILL BACK OBAMA Whites show greater disparity in support by education than blacks do by Jeffrey M. Jones Barack Obama’s job approval rating, which has averaged 50% since Dec. 1, continues to be significantly above that average among Americans with postgraduate education (58%). Among educational groups, only postgraduates show a rating above the majority level.

Bottom Line In his State of the Union address, President Obama said he took on healthcare reform to help the middle class and those Americans who are struggling to get coverage as well as to reduce costs. The president claimed healthcare reform could reduce the federal deficit by as much as $1 trillion over the next decade, an important selling point considering that the increasing number of citizens reliant on some form of government health insurance could put additional budget strain on the federal government. The Gallup data emphasize the extent to which the health insurance landscape can change in a relatively short period of time with more Americans relying on government care and fewer getting coverage through their employer from 2008 to 2009.

These findings are based on aggregated data from Gallup Daily tracking in December 2009 and January 2010, consisting of more than 25,000 interviews, and at least 4,900 in each educational group. Postgraduates were a key constituency in Obama’s winning 2008 presidential-primary and general-election coalitions, and have been Obama’s top supporters among educational groups throughout his presidency.

Survey Methods For the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide 350 days per year. All monthly samples are near 30,000 per month. For monthly results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones.

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Since July, when Obama last registered an approval rating of 60%, the gap in his approval rating between postgraduates and other educational groups has grown, with his support declining proportionately less among postgraduates than among the other groups.

Educational Relationship Varies by Group The relationship between educational attainment and support for Obama is not the same within all demographic subgroups. For example, the educational effects are quite pronounced among non-Hispanic whites, with double-digit gaps between postgraduates and those without postgraduate education. In contrast, there are essentially no educational differences among blacks. Roughly 9 in 10 blacks approve of Obama, regardless of their educational background.

part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 6,626 adults with a high school education or less, the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 8,009 adults with some college education, the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 5,709 college graduates with no postgraduate education, the maximum margin of error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 4,964 adults with postgraduate education, the maximum margin of error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 29, 2010 IN U.S., 35% WOULD RATHER WORK FOR GOVERNMENT THAN FOR BUSINESS Forty-four percent of Democrats, and 26% of Republicans, would prefer a government job Postgraduate men and women are Obama’s greatest supporters among gender and educational groups. Obama fares especially well among women with postgraduate education (64%). Whereas postgraduates are the only educational group among men that shows at least 50% approval for Obama, all four educational groups among women do. Also, there are essentially no gender differences among those with a high school education or less, but notable gender gaps at higher education levels.

Bottom Line The support of postgraduates, who tend to be more liberal and Democratic in their political orientation, was important to Obama’s being elected president. Since he has become president, postgraduates have been among his more reliable supporters, backing him at higher levels than do those in other educational groups. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 25,387 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 1, 2009-Jan. 26, 2010, as

by Frank Newport Given the choice, more than a third of Americans (35%) would rather have a job working for the government, while 59% would rather work for a business.

President Obama acknowledged in his State of the Union address Wednesday that “the true engine of job creation in this country will always be American businesses.” Obama did not suggest that government should directly hire more employees, and in fact proposed a freeze on government spending for three years, beginning in 2011. (Even so, at least one analysis suggests that since major segments of the government—Defense, Homeland Security, and Veterans Affairs, along with Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security—are exempt from the freeze, the government may continue to hire.) Still, the fact remains that a not-insubstantial segment of American society would find the government to be the most appealing place to work if new jobs are to be created. The 35% of Americans who would prefer to work for the government can be contrasted with the

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17% of adult workers whom Gallup estimates actually did work for a state, local, or federal government in 2009. The results of the question about preference for a government versus a business job are based on Gallup interviews with 972 Americans conducted Jan. 26-27. There are substantial viewpoint differences on this place-of-work choice across segments of the American population.

eral level. It may well be that the perceived attractiveness of a private-sector job will rise as the economy picks back up. As President Obama noted, business remains the true engine of job growth within the U.S., and the fact that fewer than one out of five employees now work for the government means that the substantial majority of jobs in the U.S. remain in the private sector. It is reasonable to assume that the future growth of the U.S. economy will depend on attracting the best and the brightest to America’s private business sector. Thus, it is unclear what the impact on this assumption will be if increasing numbers of Americans attempt to avoid business in lieu of a government job. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 972 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 26-27, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

January 29, 2010 THE STATE OF THE UNION SPEECH AND PUBLIC OPINION Gallup reviews public opinion on 22 issues raised in State of the Union • Supporters of Obama’s own party are more likely than Republicans to prefer the government over private business as an employer. • Whites prefer business over government by a 2-to-1 margin; nonwhites roughly break even in their preferences for the two types of employment. • Women are more likely to want to work for the government than are men, though majorities of both prefer working for a business. • There are only minor differences across age groups in preference for government versus business employment. • Similarly, there are only slight differences across educational categories. • Preferences for government employment are higher in the South and East, and lower in the Midwest and in the West. Gallup has not asked this question in the past. It is possible that interest in a government job is higher now than it would be in nonrecessionary times with lower overall unemployment rates. Government jobs may also look more attractive at this point, given their perceived “safeness” and their typically generous benefits—particularly at a time when there has been considerable focus on the lack of adequate healthcare coverage in many private businesses. In addition, news reports over the last year or two have documented the continuing workforce growth of government at the fed-

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by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad Gallup looks at how a number of key points and policy proposals that President Barack Obama made in his State of the Union address Wednesday night relate to the views of the American people. 1. Hope for the Future “I have never been more hopeful about America’s future than I am tonight.” Most Americans are optimistic about the future of the country, but they have been more optimistic at other times in the past, generally when the economy was doing well. 2. Bank Bailout “Our most urgent task upon taking office was to shore up the same banks that helped cause this crisis. . . . We all hated the bank bailout. I hated it. You hated it. It was about as popular as a root canal.” February 2009 polling showed that giving aid to U.S. banks and financial companies in danger of failing was the least popular of five different government steps to aid the economy. A majority of 59% of Americans opposed the idea of a bank bailout. The images of banks and bankers have also fallen significantly in recent years—Americans’ confidence in banks last year dropped to a record low (22%), as did the perceived honesty and ethics of bankers.

3. Economic Stimulus

7. Clean Energy

“Because of the steps we took, there are about 2 million Americans working right now who would otherwise be unemployed. . . . The plan that has made all of this possible, from the tax cuts to the jobs, is the Recovery Act. That’s right—the Recovery Act, also known as the stimulus bill.” As Obama signed the $787 billion stimulus bill into law in February 2009, 59% of Americans were in favor of the legislation. More recently, however, Americans seem to have doubts about the effectiveness of the plan. In August, fewer than half (41%) believed the stimulus plan was making the economy better, while the slight majority thought it was either having no effect (33%) or making the economy worse (24%). At that time, a slim majority also said the government should have spent less to stimulate the economy. Also at that time there was broad opposition to the government’s passing a new stimulus bill (29% in favor and 65% opposed). Asked about the best way to create jobs last November, very few Americans mentioned more stimulus spending.

“We should put more Americans to work building clean energy facilities and give rebates to Americans who make their homes more energy-efficient.” In March 2009, Gallup found three-quarters of Americans (77%) in favor of the government’s promoting energy production from alternative sources of energy. More recently, Gallup found a solid majority of Americans saying they had taken steps in the past year to make their homes more energy efficient, though most cited economic savings, not the environment, as the reason.

4. Economy Is Growing “After two years of recession, the economy is growing again.” The majority of Americans continue to say the economy is getting worse rather than better—although a greater proportion of Americans say it is getting better than did so when Obama took office. The percentage “getting better” is 38% today, compared with 18% in January 2009. The last time the majority of Americans said the economy was getting better was July 2004. 5. Jobs as No. 1 Focus “Jobs must be our No. 1 focus in 2010.” The percentage of Americans mentioning jobs or unemployment as the nation’s most important problem is double today what it was a year ago (22% vs. 11%) and now nearly ties mentions of the economy in general as the perceived top problem. Assessments of the job market are bleak and have been so for a long time. Only 9% of Americans say now is a good time to find a quality job. Gallup’s Job Creation Index is essentially the same now as it was when Obama took office, with no sign of meaningful job growth. 6. Small Business “We should start where most new jobs do—in small businesses . . . I’m proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat. I’m also proposing a new small-business tax credit . . . Let’s also eliminate all capital gains taxes on small business investment.” Americans have a much more positive view of small business than of big business. In fact, confidence in small business is second only to confidence in the military at the top of the list of Gallup’s annual Confidence in Institutions assessment. Confidence in big business is the lowest of any institution tested. From a slightly different perspective, new Gallup research also shows that almost twice as many Americans have a positive view of small business as they do of big business (95% vs. 49%). More than 8 out of 10 Americans also agree that when small businesses make a profit, it is good for the U.S. economy.

8. Bipartisanship “I’ve been told that addressing our larger challenges is too ambitious . . . I’ve been told that our political system is too gridlocked, and that we should just put things on hold for a while. . . . How long should we wait? How long should America put its future on hold?” The percentage of Americans believing Obama has made “a sincere effort to work with the Republicans in Congress” slid to 60% in September 2009 from 80% who expected Obama to make a sincere effort just after the November 2008 election. At the same time, barely a third believed either caucus in Congress was making the same effort toward the other party. 9. Nuclear Power “We need more production, more efficiency, more incentives. And that means building a new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants in this country.” Americans generally support the expanded use of nuclear power as a means of producing electricity. Last year, 59% of Americans— a new high—were in favor of more use of nuclear power. 10. Offshore Drilling “It means making tough decisions about opening new offshore areas for oil and gas development.” Americans have in the past supported drilling in areas—including off the coasts of the United States—that the U.S. is not currently using as a means of oil production. 11. Climate Change “I know that there are those who disagree with the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change.” Just a little over half of Americans believe the effects of global warming have already begun. Well under half say global warming will pose a threat in their lifetimes. Most Americans believe that the threat of climate change or global warming is generally correct or underestimated. But last year, the percentage who said the threat was exaggerated increased to 41%. Also last year, Americans’ reported concern about global warming dipped after showing a steady increase from 2005 to 2008. 12. Export and Trade “Third, we need to export more of our goods. Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America. So tonight, we set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years … To help meet this goal, we’re launching a National Export Initiative.”

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In recent years, Americans have been more likely to view foreign trade as a threat to the economy from foreign imports than as an opportunity to increase U.S. exports. Before that, however, Americans generally took the latter view. 13. Elementary and Secondary Education Act “We need to invest in the skills and education of our people. . . . we [will] renew the Elementary and Secondary Education Act.” Americans’ top two recommendations in 2009 for how to improve K-12 education in the U.S. are improving the quality of teachers (17%) and focusing more on basic curriculum (10%). Four percent mentioned improving standards for testing students, while 3% recommended abolishing the No Child Left Behind Act (which relies on extensive standardized testing). The Elementary and Secondary Education Act includes No Child Left Behind (NCLB). Gallup research from August showed that of those who are familiar with NCLB, a large majority say either that it has had no effect on students’ education or that it has made it worse. A bit of better news for supporters of NCLB is that parents of school-aged children are a little more positive about the impact of the law than are those who do not have children in school. Of potential importance is the fact that those who claim to be very familiar with NCLB are most strongly convinced that it has had a negative impact. 14. Healthcare Reform “We still need health insurance reform. . . . We are closer than ever to bringing more security to the lives of so many Americans. . . . I know that with all the lobbying and horse-trading, the process left most Americans wondering, “What’s in it for me?” . . . I want everyone to take another look at the plan we’ve proposed. . . . Here’s what I ask Congress, though: Don’t walk away from reform. . . . Let us find a way to come together and finish the job for the American people.” The healthcare reform Congress worked on in 2009-2010 struggled to gain public backing. While access to healthcare and affordability remain the most urgent health problems in the country in Americans’ eyes, less than a majority now say that ensuring all Americans have healthcare is the government’s responsibility. Fiftyfive percent of Americans favor shelving the current plan and beginning work on a new plan. Americans who object to passing healthcare legislation are not just focused on “what’s in it for me” but rather are most likely to object on the grounds of costs and too much government involvement. 15. The Federal Deficit “. . . a massive fiscal hole in which we find ourselves. . . . So tonight, I’m proposing specific steps to pay for the trillion dollars that it took to rescue the economy last year. . . . I’ve called for a bipartisan fiscal commission [to focus on the deficit].” Americans are concerned about the amount of money the government is spending, and say President Obama’s proposals to address the problems facing the country require too much spending. In fact, 58% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the deficit— tied with healthcare for his most negative issue rating. The deficit has increased as a problem in Americans’ eyes, but still ranks well behind the economy, unemployment, and healthcare. Obama has gotten poor marks for his handling of the federal budget deficit.

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16. Distrust in Government “We face a deficit of trust—deep and corrosive doubts about how Washington works that have been growing for years.” Only 17% of Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in Congress, almost at the bottom of a list of institutions tested in Gallup’s annual update of confidence in institutions. This lack of trust, however, has not been “growing for years” in a straight linear fashion. Confidence in Congress is actually up slightly from the previous two years, and is no worse than it was in the 1991-1994 time frame. 17. Lobbyists “We have to take action . . . to end the outsized influence of lobbyists.” Americans have no love lost for lobbyists. In 2007, when lobbyists were included in Gallup’s annual ratings of the honesty and ethics of professions for the first time, they were at the very bottom of the list. Additional research that year found that Americans believed that presidential candidates should refuse lobbyist money. 18. Campaign Finance and Lobbying Reform “With all due deference to separation of powers, last week the Supreme Court reversed a century of law that I believe will open the floodgates for special interests . . . to spend without limit in our elections. I don’t think American elections should be bankrolled by America’s most powerful interests.” It is highly likely Americans agree that elections should not be bankrolled by special interests. What’s unclear is whether Americans agree that this will be the effect of the recent Supreme Court decision, which gives companies broad latitude in funding independent expenditures on behalf of specific candidates. Gallup polling last fall found Americans in general agreement with the court’s rationale in this case, which is that campaign spending is a matter of free speech. However, by 52% to 41%, more think limiting campaign donations ought to be the greater priority over protecting this First Amendment right. 19. Iraq “As a candidate I promised that I would end this war, and that is what I am doing as president. We will have all of our combat troops out of Iraq by the end of this August.” Roughly 6 in 10 Americans believe sending troops to Iraq was a mistake. In September—several months after Obama had issued his plans to speed up the United States’ withdrawal from Iraq—Gallup found 56% of Americans approving of Obama’s handling of the Iraq situation, his highest issue rating of seven tested in that survey. 20. Haiti “Our destiny is connected to those beyond our shores. . . . That’s why, as we meet here tonight, over 10,000 Americans are working with many nations to help the people of Haiti recover and rebuild.” Most Americans (63%) are committed to the United States’ remaining in Haiti as long as necessary to ensure that basic services are restored and life is back to normal for the people there. Nearly three-quarters (73%) think the U.S. is doing enough to respond to the crisis, and, in line with this, the slight majority is opposed to increasing the number of Haitian immigrants allowed into the U.S.

21. Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell “This year I will work with Congress and our military to finally repeal the law that denies gay Americans the right to serve the country they love because of who they are.” Although 50% of Americans were opposed to lifting the ban on gays serving in the military at the time President Bill Clinton instituted the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy in 1993 (43% were in favor), 69% in November 2009 said that openly gay men and women should be allowed to serve in the military. 22. Immigration “We should continue the work of fixing our broken immigration system—to secure our borders and enforce our laws, and ensure that everyone who plays by the rules can contribute to our economy and enrich our nation.” Americans returned to a tougher stance on immigration in 2009, with a higher percentage saying immigration should be decreased

than said this in 2008, and a smaller percentage calling immigration a “good thing” for the country. In 2007—amid a major push for immigration reform laws in Washington—Gallup found 20% generally in favor of requiring illegal immigrants to leave the country and 78% in favor of some sort of path to citizenship. Survey Methods Gallup surveys 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, every day and also conducts additional surveys. In most cases, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 to ±4 percentage points. For detailed survey methods on any results reported here, please visit the original story. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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tic in their political orientation. (A table showing the full data for each state appears at the end of the article.) It is important to note that the classification of states reported here is based on the political affiliations of all residents, and does not necessarily indicate how a state might vote in a given election. Also, the partisanship figures include independents who have a partisan leaning with each party’s core identifiers. This makes the states more comparable because the percentage of independents varies widely by state, and can understate a party’s true strength in a state.

February 01, 2010 PARTY ID: DESPITE GOP GAINS, MOST STATES REMAIN BLUE Massachusetts, Rhode Island most Democratic; Utah, Wyoming most Republican by Jeffrey M. Jones Rhode Island and Massachusetts—along with the District of Columbia—were the most Democratic U.S. states in 2009, based on their residents’ stated political affiliations. Wyoming and Utah ranked as the two most Republican states in the nation.

These results are based on aggregated data from Gallup Daily tracking in 2009, including interviews with more than 350,000 adults in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Gallup conducted at least 1,000 interviews in every state except Wyoming (878), North Dakota (968), Delaware (997), and the District of Columbia (632). Gallup interviewed more than 20,000 residents each in California, Texas, New York, and Pennsylvania. Nationwide, party support shifted in a slightly more Republican direction in 2009 after a historically strong Democratic year in 2008. Overall, 49% of Americans in 2009 identified as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to the Democratic Party, while 41% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents. That 8-point Democratic advantage compares to a 12-point, 52% to 40%, Democratic advantage in 2008. Thus, even with the reduction in Democratic strength, the party still maintained a solid advantage over the Republicans nationally last year. It follows, then, that most states continued to be Democra-

In total, 23 states plus the District of Columbia can be classified as solidly Democratic, with a 10 percentage-point or greater advantage in party affiliation in favor of the Democrats. This includes most of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions, most of the Great Lakes region, and the Pacific Coast. Another 10 states can be considered Democratic leaning, in which the state’s Democratic supporters outnumber Republican supporters by at least 5 percentage points but less than 10 points. These are Missouri, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, and Tennessee. Four states are solidly Republican, with a better than 10-point advantage in Republican affiliation—Wyoming, Utah, Alaska, and Idaho. Alabama qualifies as the lone Republican-leaning state, with a 6-point advantage in Republican affiliation. That leaves 12 states that are competitive, with less than a 5point advantage for either party. Among these 13 states, 6 tilt in a Republican direction: Montana, Nebraska, Mississippi, Texas, North Dakota, and Kansas. Six tilt toward the Democratic Party: Georgia, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona, Oklahoma, and South Carolina. Party Trends by State, 2008 vs. 2009 As at the national level, most of the states showed movement in the Republican direction in 2009, with a reduction of the Democratic advantage in 39 states and the District of Columbia. The greatest movement toward the GOP occurred in the District of Columbia, Ohio, Louisiana, Montana, and Hawaii. Seven states showed at least a slight increase in the Democratic advantage, while four states showed no change. But these shifts were generally not large enough to fundamentally shake up the political map. In fact, the total number of Republican-leaning or solid Republican states was unchanged from the prior year. Rather, in 2009, there was an increase in competitive states and Democratic-leaning states, and a reduction in the number of solidly Democratic states, from 30 to 24.

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Bottom Line Despite the modest shift toward a decreased affiliation with the Democratic Party and an increased affiliation with the Republican Party in 2009 compared to 2008, the United States remained a Democratically oriented nation last year. In all, 33 states and the District of Columbia were either solidly Democratic or leaning Democratic in terms of the political party leanings of their residents. Twelve states were fairly evenly balanced between Democratic and Republican supporters, and 5 states were solidly or leaning Republican. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 353,849 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted in 2009 as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of error for most states is ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±4 percentage points for Delaware, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, and the District of Columbia. For the most populous states, the margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 02, 2010 AMERICANS LEERY OF TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT REGULATION OF BUSINESS Republicans in particular are worried about too much government regulation by Frank Newport The lists of top 10 Democratic and Republican states were also generally similar in 2008 and 2009. The membership of the 10 most Democratic states was the same in 2009 as in 2008, with a minor shuffling of the order of these. The District of Columbia, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts topped the Democratic list in both years. Last year, Utah ranked ahead of Wyoming as the most Republican state, but this year Wyoming has a slight edge. Arizona and South Carolina were among the top 10 Republican states in 2008 but were just outside the top 10 list in 2009. Texas is new to the list of top 10 Republican states.

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At a time of increasing debate over the optimal relationship between government and business in the U.S., new Gallup polling shows that 57% of Americans are worried that there will be too much government regulation of business, while 37% worry that there will not be enough. Half of Americans believe the government should become less involved in regulating and controlling business, with 24% saying the government should become more involved and 23% saying things are about right. Two questions Gallup asked on Jan. 26-27 measured the American public’s overall views toward government regulation of business.

have the opposite pattern of responses, and are inclined to see too little regulation as the bigger risk, although not by as great a margin.

The first asked directly about government regulation of business. The second asked Americans if they worried more about the prospect of too much or too little government regulation. Responses to both questions indicate that Americans remain leery of too much government regulation and control over business. This sentiment persists despite a significant loss of the public’s confidence in banks and skepticism about the honesty and ethics of bankers over the last two years, and with increased focus on the negative impact of the actions of some big banks and other businesses on the nation’s financial crisis. These results are generally consistent with a slightly different question that Gallup last updated in late August and early September of last year. Those results showed that about a quarter of Americans felt there was too little government regulation of business and industry. The majority of Americans believed that there was either too much regulation, or about the right amount. The current “worry” question measures these attitudes in a different way, but shows the same basic pattern of results. Given a choice, a little more than a third of Americans say they worry more about not having enough regulation of business, while 57% say their worry is that there would be too much regulation. Republicans Very Opposed to Government Regulation There are, as might be expected, significant partisan differences in response to these questions. Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) have very strong opinions on the question of government regulation. Over three-quarters say the federal government should become less involved in regulating and controlling business. Democrats’ (including Democratic leaners’) opinions are more varied, splitting across the three options roughly equally. A slight plurality (36%) favor government’s becoming more involved. Republicans are even more unified in their sentiments on the “worry” question, with 83% saying they worry more that there will be too much, rather than too little, government regulation. Democrats

Bottom Line Arguments over the optimal level of government involvement in the control and regulation of business are long-standing. The issue has become more front and center as the nation’s economic crisis has unfolded over the last two years. President Barack Obama in his recent State of the Union speech, for example, mentioned the need to institute a fee on the biggest banks in order to continue to recover money given to banks; a proposal to slash tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas; instituting new regulations for financial institutions in order to provide more information to consumers; financial reforms that would affect lobbyists; and the healthcare reform effort that entails a great deal of government involvement in the nation’s healthcare system. While the American public may favor some of these initiatives on an individual basis, the current results underscore the degree to which the average American in a general sense is concerned about too much government involvement in business. The issue has strong political overtones. Republicans are quite united in their opinions that the government should become less involved in controlling and regulating business, and also overwhelmingly express worry that the government may regulate too much. Democrats have somewhat more mixed opinions on the issue of government regulation and control of business, but are more concerned about too little government regulation rather than too much. The questions reviewed here did not specify “big” or “small” business. Gallup research has consistently shown that Americans are much more sympathetic to the latter than to the former. Apparently sensitive to these attitudes, President Obama in his recent State of the Union address included a number of positive references to small businesses and efforts to help small business. At the same time, the address and subsequent budget proposals have included regulatory efforts aimed at big banks and other large businesses. It is possible that Americans— while broadly disdaining the idea of more regulation in general—could favor more regulation of specific large businesses, such as banks.

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 972 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 26-27, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 03, 2010 IDEOLOGY: THREE DEEP SOUTH STATES ARE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE Only District of Columbia has more liberals than conservatives by Jeffrey M. Jones Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are the most conservative states, with just under half of the residents in each identifying as politically conservative. Massachusetts and Vermont—along with the District of Columbia—have the greatest percentage of self-identified liberals.

The top 10 liberal states are all in the Northeast or the West, with the exception of the District of Columbia. Half of the top 10 conservative states are in the South. These findings are based on aggregated data from Gallup’s 2009 Daily tracking survey. Gallup asked nearly 300,000 Americans last year to describe their political views as very liberal, liberal, moderate, conservative, or very conservative. The results here use the collapsed very liberal/liberal and very conservative/conservative figures. Nationwide, conservatives outnumbered liberals by nearly 2 to 1, 40% to 21%, in 2009, with 36% identifying as moderates. Although the proportion of self-identified liberals has increased in recent years, it still ranks well below the proportion of conservatives or moderates in the United States. Consequently, only in the District of Columbia did more residents identify as liberal than as conservative in 2009. The accom-

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panying table shows the relative strength of conservative versus liberal self-identification in each state. Again, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi top the list as having the greatest conservative-versusliberal advantage, with the District of Columbia, Vermont, and

Massachusetts near the bottom as having the smallest conservative advantages. Gallup reported earlier this week on party identification by state. Generally, there is a strong relationship between political ideology and party identification, but the two are not precisely parallel. Whereas all states (excluding the District of Columbia) have more conservatives than liberals, Democrats have a numerical (if not a statistical) advantage in most states. While there is a good deal of overlap between the 10 most conservative and the 10 most Republican states, as well as the 10 most liberal and the 10 most Democratic ones, it is not a perfect correspondence. Utah and Wyoming had the greatest Republican strength in 2009, but Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana had the most conservatives (Mississippi and Alabama ranked among the 10 most Republican states, but Louisiana did not; Utah was among the top 10 conservative states, while Wyoming was not). A total of 5 states appear in both the Republican and conservative top 10s.

The District of Columbia tops both the liberal and Democratic lists. But Rhode Island—one of the most Democratic states—does not rank in the top 10 liberal states (though, because of its high proportion of moderates, it does rank among the 10 least conservative states). In all, 6 states appear in both the Democratic and the liberal top 10.

Bottom Line Conservatives outnumber liberals nationally and in all U.S. states; only in the District of Columbia did more residents identify as lib-

eral than as conservative in 2009. The more liberal states in the union tend to be in the Northeast or the West, while many of the most conservative states are from the South, including the three most conservative ones—Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. While there is much overlap in how states rank according to party and ideology, the two are not the same. What is instructive, though, is the fact that most U.S. states lean conservative ideologically at the same time most lean Democratic politically. This helps explain why political leaders often have difficulty governing from either pole of the ideological spectrum, and why policies that gravitate more toward the ideological center can have more public appeal. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 291,152 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted in 2009 as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of error for most states is ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±5 percentage points for the District of Columbia. For the most populous states, the margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 03, 2010 ASIAN-AMERICANS LEAN LEFT POLITICALLY Asian-Americans more liberal than other racial/ethnic groups by Jeffrey M. Jones Gallup Daily tracking data reveal that Asian-Americans tend to be more Democratic and much less conservative than the general population in their political views.

These findings are based on aggregated data from Gallup’s 2009 Daily tracking survey, including interviews with more than 4,000 Asian-Americans. For the purpose of analysis, respondents are categorized as Asian-Americans if they self-identify their race as Asian. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Asians made up 4.5% of the U.S. population in 2008, and so, Asians rank as the fourth-largest racial or ethnic group behind whites, Hispanics, and blacks. Still, the

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number of Asian respondents in a typical public-opinion-poll sample is generally too small for analysis. However, the larger samples from aggregated Gallup Daily tracking provide an opportunity to examine the political dynamics of the Asian-American population. Overall, 41% of Asians identify politically as Democrats, 41% as independents, and 16% as Republicans. As a result, Asians are above the national average in terms of the percentage of political independents (37% nationwide) and Democrats (34%), and below average in terms of the percentage of Republicans (27%). Bottom Line In general, the larger group of Asian-Americans tend to be more Democratic and more liberal than average Americans. Exit-poll data from the 2008 presidential elections generally confirm this, with Asian-American voters having supported Barack Obama over John McCain by roughly a 2-to-1 margin. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 353,849 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 4,625 Asian-Americans, the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

In similar fashion, there is little distinction across ideological groups—conservatives, moderates, and liberals—in the ratings of several of these terms, but more significant differences in response to others, such as big business, the federal government, and socialism.

February 04, 2010 SOCIALISM VIEWED POSITIVELY BY 36% OF AMERICANS Majority of Americans positive on capitalism, entrepreneurs, free enterprise, and small business by Frank Newport More than one-third of Americans (36%) have a positive image of “socialism,” while 58% have a negative image. Views differ by party and ideology, with a majority of Democrats and liberals saying they have a positive view of socialism, compared to a minority of Republicans and conservatives. “Socialism” was one of seven terms included in a Jan. 26-27 Gallup poll. Americans were asked to indicate whether their top-ofmind reactions to each were positive or negative. Respondents were not given explanations or descriptions of the terms. Americans are almost uniformly positive in their reactions to three terms: small business, free enterprise, and entrepreneurs. They are divided on big business and the federal government, with roughly as many Americans saying their view is positive as say it is negative. Americans are more positive than negative on capitalism (61% versus 33%) and more negative than positive on socialism (36% to 58%). Democrats and Republicans agree in their ratings of several of the terms, but differ significantly in their ratings of others—in particular, capitalism, the federal government, and socialism.

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Bottom Line As most politicians and many in business have learned, the choice of words to describe a concept or a policy can often make a substantial difference in the public’s reaction. The current research confirms that assumption. “Socialism” is not a completely negative term in today’s America. About a third of Americans respond positively when they hear the term. Some of this reaction may reflect unusual or unclear understandings of what socialism means. Reaction to the term is not random, however, as attested by the finding that positive images are significantly differentiated by politics and ideology. It is apparent that “free enterprise” evokes more positive responses than “capitalism,” despite the apparent similarity between the two terms. President Barack Obama made frequent positive references to small business in his recent State of the Union address, perhaps

aware of the very positive associations Americans have with that term. In particular, this research underscores the fact that Americans’ image of business can vary substantially, depending on whether it is described as small or big. Along these same lines, it is perhaps not surprising to find that entrepreneurs are held in high esteem by Americans. The finding that Americans have mixed reactions to the term “the federal government” is not new. Much previous research has shown that at this point in history, a majority of Americans are not enamored with the federal government, particularly the legislative branch. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 972 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 26-27, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 05, 2010 OBAMA APPROVAL: AMONG STATES, HAWAII WARMEST TO OBAMA Wyoming the least approving of Obama in 2009 by Lydia Saad Of the 50 states, Hawaii gave its native son, President Barack Obama, the highest approval ratings in 2009, with an average of nearly 71% approving of his overall job performance from January through December. Only the District of Columbia delivered a higher average approval rating for Obama, at 90.2%. Neighboring Maryland also ranks high among state approval ratings for the president, with an average of 68.5%.

Obama’s home state—Illinois—was among the most favorable to him last year, with 65.2% approving. Aside from California and New York, the remaining states in Obama’s top 10 are all in New England (Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island).

Hawaii also delivered the highest share of the vote for Obama in the 2008 presidential election of any state (though D.C. was higher). However, all top 10 Obama approval states voted for him in that election, and all are solidly blue in the party identification of their residents. Obama’s overall average approval rating in 2009 was 57.6% (slightly different from the 57% Gallup calculated for his first year, spanning Inauguration Day through Jan. 19, 2010), and he averaged better than 50% approval in 41 states, including Washington, D.C. The states where no more than half approved also represent the bottom 10 states for him. Among these, Wyoming gave Obama his lowest average approval, 41.6%, followed by Idaho with 43.3%. Many of the other least-approving states were in the South (Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama) or West (Montana, Utah, Alaska). Oklahoma is the lone Midwestern state in this category, and West Virginia the lone Eastern state. All of these states voted for John McCain in 2008. A separate breakdown of the states into three categories finds 21 states giving Obama an approval rating within three percentage points of his national average for all of 2009 (between 54.6% and 60.6%). Thirteen states had an average approval rating of Obama above that range and 17 states fell below it. The 2009 state-level approval figures are based on combined data for Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 21 (the day after Obama was sworn in) through Dec. 31, 2009. The presidential approval question is asked of a random half-sample of approximately 500 national adults each night, resulting in more than 170,000 interviews for the entire year. The state sample sizes range from 301 in the District of Columbia and 422 in Wyoming to 17,887 in California. Forty-one states had more than 1,000 respondents. (See full table at the end of this report.) Extent to Which Approval Exceeds Democratic Party ID Varies Obama’s average state-level approval ratings are related to each state’s partisan makeup, as would be expected. States with a high proportion of self-identified Democrats tend to be more supportive of Obama than those with lower proportions of Democrats; however, there is not a 1-to-1 correspondence between the two figures. Because a certain proportion of non-Democrats (that is, Republicans and independents) approve of the president’s job performance, Obama’s approval rating in each state in 2009 was, on average, about 10 points higher than the percentage calling themselves Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic). However, his average approval rating was significantly more than 10 points ahead of Democratic Party ID in several states, and significantly less than 10 points ahead of it in others. More specifically, Obama’s average approval rating was more than 16 points greater than Democratic Party identification in Utah and Hawaii, and about 14 points greater in North Dakota and Connecticut. By contrast, his approval rating was less than 7 points ahead of Democratic Party ID in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oregon, and Colorado. And in West Virginia, Obama’s approval rating was nearly 7 points lower than the percentage of Democrats statewide, the only state showing this pattern. Bottom Line How the residents of each state view Obama continues to be strongly related to 2008 voting patterns. Approval toward him was particularly high in the states that gave him the most support in the 2008

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 170,370 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 21-Dec. 31, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of error for most states is ±3 percentage points, but is as high as ±7 percentage points for the District of Columbia. For the most populous states, the margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 05, 2010 DEMOCRATS TURN MORE NEGATIVE TOWARD CONGRESS Overall approval of Congress now 18%, the lowest in over a year by Lydia Saad Congress’ job approval rating from Americans fell six points in the past month, from 24% to 18%—the lowest reading in more than a year. Nearly 8 in 10 (78%) now disapprove.

This decline in congressional approval is largely explained by a sharp drop in approval among rank-and-file Democrats, from 45% in January to 30% today. The slight changes in approval among Republicans and independents are not statistically significant.

election—led by Hawaii and Washington, D.C. His lowest support as president came from states that voted strongly for John McCain— particularly Wyoming and a number of other Western as well as Southern states. 46

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In a related finding, among ideological groups, approval of Congress is down mainly among liberals (from 40% in January to 24% today). Support from moderates was already fairly low, at 28%, and is now 21%. There has been no change in approval among conservatives, at 14%. Looking at the partisan trends on congressional approval since the start of last year, it is clear that Democrats’ support for the body was restored shortly after President Barack Obama was sworn in, rising from 18% in January 2009 to 43% in February. It rose further to 57% in March and remained at or above 50% for the next several months. However, Democrats’ approval of Congress subsequently withered (with a brief dip to 36% last fall), and now stands at its lowest level since Obama took office. Approval of Congress has consistently been below 20% among Republicans and independents for several months.

The new poll was conducted Feb. 1-3, shortly after Obama’s Jan. 27 State of the Union address in which he leveled several criticisms at Congress (and particularly the Senate) for failing to advance his legislative agendas on healthcare, banking, jobs, energy, and other issues. He also pointedly called on both parties to support greater transparency for congressional earmarks and to tone down their partisanship. The all-time low Gallup reading on congressional approval is 14%, recorded in July 2008. Prior to this, 18% was the lowest in Gallup’s history of asking this question, which dates to 1974. In addition to the current measure, congressional approval was at 18% for several months in 2008 as well as in March 1992. It was only slightly higher in June 1979 (19%) and October 1994 (21%).

all of that heightened support among independents had peeled off by last fall, and now Democrats are breaking away. President Obama’s State of the Union speech may help explain Democrats’ heightened displeasure with Congress. With 86% of Democrats nationwide approving of the job Obama is doing as president in the latest poll, the president’s words clearly carry a great deal of weight with them: if Obama appears to be frustrated with Congress (albeit Democrat controlled), then many Democrats will follow suit. Still, it is not clear whether Democrats’ disapproval of Congress is directed more at the Republicans (for obstructing Obama’s agenda) or more at the Democrats (for allowing it to languish). That is something Gallup will explore in future polling. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 08, 2010 ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE: WYOMING, MICHIGAN MOST NEGATIVE All states rate conditions negatively; all but Wyoming were more confident in 2009 than 2008 by Jeffrey M. Jones In a difficult economic year in which residents of all states rated economic conditions negatively, those living in the District of Columbia and South Dakota expressed a greater degree of confidence in the U.S. economy than did residents in other states. Economic confidence was lowest in Wyoming, Michigan, West Virginia, and Nevada.

Bottom Line Congress enjoyed a bump in public approval at the start of last year as the Obama administration was getting underway—fueled mostly by enhanced approval among Democrats and independents. Nearly

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is an average of two measures—one asking respondents to rate current economic conditions as excellent, good, only fair, or poor, and the other asking respon-

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dents to assess whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The Index has a theoretical range of -100 to +100, with negative scores indicating respondents are more negative than positive about the economy. The results reported here are based on Gallup Daily tracking data from 2009, consisting of more than 170,000 interviews in all 50 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia. Though the questions that constitute Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index ask respondents to evaluate the national economy, their local experiences surely color their assessments. Many of the states that have been especially hurt by the recent economic downturn rank among the 10 least confident states. From a broad perspective, both the top 10 and bottom 10 states are diverse groups regionally and politically. However, half of the top 10 consists of states from the upper Midwest—North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota. Current Conditions Versus Future Expectations in the 50 States Looking at each component of the Economic Confidence Index separately, only as many as 17% of residents in any state (North Dakota) rated current economic conditions positively last year, underscoring the poor shape of the economy as perceived by the average American. In 22 states a majority described economic conditions as poor, including a high of 59% in Nevada and Michigan. Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota had the least negative ratings of current economic conditions last year, based on the percentage in each state rating the economy as excellent or good minus the percentage rating it poor. But even in these states, more than twice as many rated conditions poor as rated them excellent or good. Michigan and Nevada had the most negative ratings of current conditions by this measure. In terms of a forward look at the economy, residents of the District of Columbia were the most likely to believe that economic conditions were getting better—46% said this, easily the highest in the nation. Meanwhile, West Virginia and Wyoming residents were the least likely to say the economy was improving, with West Virginians having a slightly more negative view of the economy’s direction because a higher percentage said the economy was getting worse. Confidence Improves in 2009 Though Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index remained in negative territory throughout 2009 (and was negative for the year in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia), Americans were more optimistic about the economy in 2009 than they were in 2008. In fact, in all but one state (Wyoming), the 2009 index scores were improved from 2008, and in most of the states the improvement was substantial. The average increase in consumer confidence across all states was 14 points. The District of Columbia saw the greatest gains in economic confidence in 2009, 34 points, followed by Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maryland. Perhaps not coincidentally, these states tend to be Democratically oriented in their politics, and their much-improved economic outlook could be partly the result of the switch from a Republican to a Democratic presidential administration last year. In addition to Wyoming, whose score fell from -43 to -47, Montana and Idaho showed the least improvement. These three states ranked among the 10 most Republican in 2009 according to Gallup, with Wyoming the most Republican.

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Bottom Line Despite significant improvement last year, Americans remained downbeat in their economic evaluations. All states plus the District of Columbia had negative scores on Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index in 2009, with the District of Columbia and South Dakota being more optimistic than other states. The new year does not seem to have brought additional gains in consumer confidence thus far: a month into 2010, economic confidence remains in negative territory and similar to levels Gallup observed for much of 2009.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

February 09, 2010 SIX IN 10 OVERWEIGHT OR OBESE IN U.S., MORE IN ’09 THAN IN ’08 Obese are more likely to have chronic conditions and are missing more daily activities by Elizabeth Mendes More than 6 in 10 American adults (63.1%) were either overweight (36.6%) or obese (26.5%) in 2009, up a small but measurable amount from the 62.2% who were classified as overweight or obese in 2008. The shift is primarily because of fewer people reporting a normal weight BMI and more being classified as obese.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 173,567 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Margin of error for most states is ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±7 percentage points for the District of Columbia and ±6 percentage points for Delaware, North Dakota, and Wyoming.

Gallup and Healthways survey approximately 1,000 Americans each day, with more than 350,000 surveys completed in 2008 and in 2009. Obesity is assessed on the basis of respondents’ self-reports of their height and weight, which are then used to calculate BMI scores. Individual BMI values of 30 or above are classified as “obese,” 25 to 29.9 are “overweight,” 18.5 to 24.9 are “normal weight,” and 18.5 or less are “underweight.” Tracking obesity by quarter shows that despite minor fluctuations, the obesity rate in the United States remained elevated throughout 2009 in comparison to 2008. Across the eight quarters of measurement, obesity peaked in the first quarter of last year and then declined in each of the following quarters of 2009, though not to a statistically significant degree. Obese Less Likely to Exercise and Eat Healthy Along with collecting height and weight data of Americans, Gallup and Healthways measure healthy behaviors in the United States, including respondents’ self-reported exercise and eating habits. In terms of physical activity, the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index specifically asks Americans on how many days in the last seven days

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they exercised for at least 30 minutes. Obese Americans (59.2%) are significantly less likely than those who are overweight (69.9%) or of a normal weight (73.8%) to report exercising at least one day per week. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index includes a similar question about fruit and vegetable consumption. The obese are slightly less likely than those in every other BMI category to say they ate five servings of fruits and vegetables on at least three of the past seven days. Obese Americans are also less likely to say they ate healthy “all day yesterday.” The differences on healthy eating between obese and other Americans, however, are relatively small and not as great as the differences between these groups on exercise.

or overweight to report that poor health keeps them from doing their usual activities. The obese are almost twice as likely as those who are normal weight to miss out on eight days or more of activities per month because of poor health.

Demographics of the Obese

Chronic Conditions Rampant Among Obese The relationship between a high BMI and various health problems has been well-documented in traditional scientific literature, and Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index surveys from 2009 confirm these findings. Those who are obese are far more likely than those who are a normal weight and those who are overweight to report being diagnosed with high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, and to have had a heart attack. Gallup has also previously reported a rise in diabetes during the past two years in the U.S., concomitant with an increase in obesity, as well as a clear relationship between diabetes and obesity across states. The rate of depression is also higher among those who are obese, with 23.3% reporting they have been diagnosed with depression, compared with 15.0% of those who are normal weight. Poor Health Hinders Obese From Engaging in Everyday Activities Likely reflecting the effects of higher rates of chronic conditions, obese Americans are more likely than those who are normal weight

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In 2009, black Americans were among the most likely to be obese, at a rate (36.2%), which is nearly 10 percentage points higher than the national average of 26.5%. The obesity rate among Hispanics is also higher than the nation’s average, at 28.3%. Asians are significantly less likely to be obese than the general population, with 9.6% falling into the obese category. Examining obesity by age group reveals a distinct pattern. The rate among young Americans is 18.3%; it then increases among middle-aged groups, to 27.6% among 30- to 44-year-olds and 30.6% among 45- to 64-year-olds, before dropping off among seniors. Additionally, men are more likely than women to be obese. Bottom Line Year-over-year comparisons find the percentage of Americans who are obese is on the rise, with more than a quarter of the adult population falling into this unhealthy weight group according to GallupHealthways Well-Being Index data. With behavioral data revealing poor exercise and eating habits among most of those who are classified as obese, helping to reverse the current trend in obesity could require active involvement of communities, businesses, and the government in addition to motivating individuals themselves to improve

Since last fall, the two major parties have been closely matched on this important gauge of the 2010 midterm elections, with neither achieving more than a four percentage-point lead. In mid-2009, the Democrats led by six points.

their health habits. Each of these constituencies does stand to gain from decreasing obesity levels in the U.S., as obese Americans are more likely to report being unable to engage in normal activities because of poor health, the lost productivity and economic implications of which, at the personal and societal level, may be negative for the country as a whole. Further, communities, businesses, and the government may want to focus on the four groups with obesity rates higher than the national average: blacks, Hispanics, men, and middle-aged Americans. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 673,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2, 2008-Dec. 31, 2009, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Approximately 88,000-90,000 surveys are completed each quarter. For quarterly results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 09, 2010 PARTIES TIED IN 2010 MIDTERM ELECTION PREFERENCES Registered voters split at 45% in party preferences for Congress by Lydia Saad Republicans and Democrats are now tied at 45% in registered voters’ preferences for which party’s congressional candidate they would support “if the elections for Congress were being held today.”

The closeness of the two parties over the past several months on this “generic ballot” measure is similar to that found in most Gallup readings from 1994 through 2005 (spanning the period when Republicans won control of the U.S. House and subsequently maintained it for more than a decade). Closer to elections, Gallup bases its generic-ballot results on voters deemed most likely to vote. Because Republicans are generally more likely than Democrats to turn out to vote, particularly in midterm elections, their positioning improves by several points when the generic ballot is based on likely voters rather than registered voters. Thus, a tie between Democrats and Republicans among registered voters probably corresponds to a Republican lead among likely voters. Independents Currently in GOP Corner While Democrats outnumber Republicans nationwide among registered voters, it is independents’ preference for Republicans, 47% to 31%, that is responsible for the tie between the parties. However, a sizable 22% of independents are unsure or plan to vote for neither party—highlighting the potential for volatility in voter preferences in the months ahead. At the same time, the vast majority of Republicans and Democrats plan to vote for their own party’s candidate.

Republicans have tied or led Democrats among independents in every Gallup generic ballot measure for the 2010 midterms, starting with the initial measurement in July 2009. Although independents’ support for Democratic candidates slipped six percentage points in the past month (from 37% to 31%), the percentage favoring the Republican candidate also fell slightly, while the percentage undecided about their 2010 vote rose to 22%, the highest to date.

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say they are “more enthusiastic” about voting, compared with 41% of Democrats/Democratic leaners.

The congressional voting preferences of independents leading up to the 2010 midterms have thus far been markedly different from independents’ preferences prior to the 2006 elections—highlighting the changed political climate this year. In 2006 polling from January through early November, Gallup found independents consistently favoring the Democrats, in some cases by substantial margins. That year the Democrats recaptured control of the U.S. House, gaining 30 seats. (Independents also tended to prefer Democratic congressional candidates in 2008, a year when the Democrats expanded their majority status.)

The resulting levels of “net enthusiasm” are +25 for Republicans (55% more enthusiastic minus 30% less enthusiastic) and -4 for Democrats. This is a reversal from 2006, when Democrats were more enthusiastic than Republicans, and represents the widest enthusiasm gap seen for any midterm election since 1994. Differences in net enthusiasm between the parties usually indicate a stronger performance at the polls for the party with the advantage.

Voter Enthusiasm Apparent Early This Election Year

Bottom Line

Nearly half of all national adults today (46%) say that, compared to previous elections, they are “more enthusiastic” about voting. Another 39% are less enthusiastic, while 14% volunteer that they feel the same. The percentage more enthusiastic is similar to the levels seen through most of the 2006 midterm election year. However, it is higher than what Gallup found in 1994 and 1998, even right before those years’ elections.

As of now, Republicans are positioned to do well in the November congressional elections. Not only are registered voters evenly split in their preferences for Republican and Democratic candidates—an indication that Republicans would lead Democrats among likely voters if the elections were held today—but Republican voters are far more enthusiastic about voting this year than are Democrats. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

While voter enthusiasm today is fairly high, overall, more than half of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican)

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February 10, 2010 JOB CREATION: ENERGY STATES AMONG BRIGHTEST SPOTS FOR NATION Michigan and Nevada fare worst; all states saw deterioration from 2008 to 2009 by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Energy states were among the best job markets in the U.S. in 2009, along with states benefiting from federal jobs. States particularly hurt by the financial and housing crises were among the worst job markets. Every state and the District of Columbia saw job market conditions deteriorate between 2008 and 2009.

The results for Gallup’s Job Creation Index reflect aggregated data from approximately 100,000 Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted throughout 2009 with employed adults in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Gallup asks those who are employed whether their companies are hiring workers and expanding the size of their labor forces, not changing the size of their workforces, or laying off workers and reducing the number of employees they have. The Job Creation Index reports the net difference between the percentage reporting an expansion and the percentage reporting a reduction in their workforces. Energy-producing states such as North Dakota, Louisiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas were home to some of the top job markets in the U.S. in 2009, as they were in 2008. They were joined by Alaska and New Mexico, two other energy states; Nebraska, a farm state benefiting from ethanol and a strong commodities market; and Maryland and Virginia, two states benefiting from the presence of federal government employees. Despite the recent improvement in manufacturing and banking, economically long-depressed Michigan and financial-crisis states in the Northeast, including Rhode Island, Delaware, New Jersey, and Connecticut continued to be some of the worst state job markets in 2009. The housing-crash states of Nevada and California also remained near the bottom of the list, joined by Arizona, another state with housing problems, and two other Western states—Oregon and Idaho. New Hampshire, another financial state, was on the list of worst job market states, as was Minnesota. In 2009 nationwide, the figures were 24% hiring and 25% letting go. Least and Most Job Market Deterioration Every state and the District of Columbia saw job market conditions deteriorate between 2008 and 2009. Areas benefiting from the pres-

ence of federal government employees experienced comparatively stable job market conditions: the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. Also seeing the least deterioration were some of the best job markets in 2009—New Mexico, Nebraska, and Alaska. On the other hand, several states with the worst job markets in 2008 also saw the least change in 2009—presumably because they had declined so much already: Vermont, Rhode Island, and Florida. Montana was also among the job markets having the least deterioration between 2008 and 2009.

Among those experiencing the most deterioration were three states among the top 10 job markets in 2008: Wyoming, Utah, and South Dakota, probably reflecting the reduction in gas and oil exploration last year. Also included were several states that ended up with the worst job markets of 2009: Oregon, Idaho, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Others seeing big declines included Kansas, Alabama, Washington, and Hawaii. Bottom Line Many of the circumstances that dominated job market conditions during 2008 continued to do so during 2009: energy and commodity states continued to see their job markets do comparatively well, while job market conditions in housing- and financial-debacle states continued to fare relatively poorly. States with a significant number of federal employees also seem to be among the least affected as job market conditions deteriorated between 2008 and 2009. Of course, the annual data in these comparisons do not show the sharp deterioration of job market conditions in early 2009 or the comparative recovery later in the year. However, they do suggest that the deepening recession of 2009 had a significantly negative impact on job market conditions across the nation. In 2010, the factors that influence comparative job market conditions may change. For example, improving conditions in the manufacturing sector could mean comparative improvements in job market conditions in many long-depressed areas. Similarly, continuing improvements in the financial and housing sectors could help the job market in many currently depressed states. Still, improvements in some states are not enough to get the U.S. economy on a sustainable growth path for 2010-2011. Instead, widespread improvements in job market conditions will need to happen in every state.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 10, 2010 SIX IN 10 SAY OBAMA HAS SPENT TOO LITTLE TIME ON ECONOMY Democrats most satisfied, Republicans most critical of Obama’s time allocation by Frank Newport Six in 10 Americans (60%) believe that President Barack Obama has not devoted enough time to economic problems, 33% say he has spent the right amount of time on the issue, and another 5% say he has spent too much time. A majority of Americans are also dissatisfied with Obama’s time allocation on healthcare and foreign policy, but views are mixed on whether he has spent too much or too little time on each.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 94,018 employed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margins of sampling error range from ±1 percentage point for large states such as California to as high as ±9 percentage points for the District of Columbia.

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Of the three issues tested in the Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll, Americans are most likely to say Obama has spent the right amount of time on foreign policy problems, followed by economic problems and then healthcare policy. Still, the majority of Americans who are dissatisfied with Obama’s time allocation in each of the three areas have decidedly different views of whether he has spent too much or too little time on each. • Americans clearly believe that Obama has not spent enough time dealing with economic problems; 60% hold this view, while 5% say he has spent too much time on the economy. • A plurality of 41% of Americans say Obama has spent too much time on healthcare policy, while 31% say he has not spent enough time. • The reverse pattern prevails in regard to foreign policy problems, with slightly more Americans saying he has not spent enough time on foreign policy (30%) than say he has spent too much (20%). It is significant that less than half of Americans believe the president is spending the right amount of time on any of these three policy areas, and it may reflect the general lack of satisfaction with the way things are going in the country, as well as continuing and deep concerns over the economy, and divided opinions on the healthcare

reform effort. Additionally, Obama’s approval ratings on handling these three issues reflect a sharply divided public, with well less than half approving of his handling of the economy and healthcare. Looking ahead, these results suggest that Americans clearly want Obama to spend more time on the economy. Beyond that, the directions for Obama from the American people are less clear.

pendents currently show a greater preference for the Republican candidate than for Obama, by 45% to 31%, though about one in four do not have an opinion. However, even with independents leaning in the Republican candidate’s direction, Obama is tied among all voters because of the greater proportion of Democratic identifiers in the registered voter population.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 11, 2010 VOTERS DIVIDED OVER OBAMA VS. REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE IN 2012 Republicans most often mention Romney, Palin as preferred candidate by Jeffrey M. Jones Registered voters are about equally divided as to whether they would more likely vote to re-elect Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, or vote for the Republican candidate.

The re-election question pits Obama against an unnamed Republican candidate. Several prominent Republicans have already visited the early caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and later this year, some may announce their intention to seek the party’s nomination. The poll asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to name, without prompting, whom they would most like to see as the party’s 2012 presidential candidate. It is clear at this early date that most Republicans have not developed a preference, with 42% not having an opinion or volunteering that they do not prefer any candidate. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin are most frequently mentioned, by 14% and 11%, respectively. Seven percent mention Arizona Sen. John McCain, the 2008 nominee. Newly elected Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 candidate Mike Huckabee, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich are each mentioned by at least 3% of Republicans.

These results are based on a Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll. Forty-four percent of U.S. registered voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama, 42% for the Republican candidate, and the remaining 14% are undecided or would vote for another candidate. A year into his first term as president, Obama’s approval ratings are hovering around 50%. The 50% approval figure has been a strong predictor of an incumbent president’s re-election: presidents who averaged 50% or better from January of an election year through Election Day have all been re-elected. This includes George W. Bush, who averaged 51% in 2004, though his approval rating was 48% in Gallup’s final pre-election poll. Most Democratic voters and Republican voters plan to support their own party’s candidate for president in the 2012 election. Inde-

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Whereas conservative (15%) and moderate or liberal (14%) Republicans are about equally likely to mention Romney as their preferred nominee, Palin is much more likely to be mentioned by conservatives (14%) than by moderates and liberals (3%). Conservatives generally outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 within the Republican Party. When Gallup asked Republicans last July which of several candidates they would be most likely to support in the 2012 primaries, Romney, Palin, and Huckabee received the most support. Early tests of nomination preferences often reflect candidates’ name recognition as much as their potential viability as candidates. Historically, however, early Republican front-runners usually have won the party’s nomination. That did not hold in 2008, however, as Rudy Giuliani typically led early nomination tests but performed poorly in the primaries and caucuses, with McCain emerging as the eventual nominee.

February 11, 2010 AMERICANS SEE LIFE THROUGH ROSIEST LENS IN TWO YEARS New high in life evaluation pushes overall wellbeing in January to post-financial crisis high by Lymari Morales The Gallup-Healthways Wellbeing Life Evaluation Index reached a new high of 50.3 in January, pushing past the 50.0 threshold for the first time since Gallup and Healthways began tracking wellbeing daily.

Bottom Line American voters are at this point about equally divided as to whether they would re-elect Obama or the Republican candidate as president. The current data update Obama’s re-election prospects, but generally would not hold much predictive value for the actual election outcome more than two years from now. As the election draws near, such trial-heat races—in addition to his approval rating—become more predictive of the ultimate outcome. Obama’s re-election chances partly hinge on whom the Republicans nominate, because it is not clear whether a “generic” Republican (as measured in the current data) would perform better or worse than a specific candidate. At this point, Romney and Palin can be considered the early front-runners for the GOP nomination, a position that has proven advantageous in most past Republican nomination campaigns. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 942 registered voters, the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 490 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the maximum margin of error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The Life Evaluation Index, one of six sub-indexes in the GallupHealthways Well-Being Index, is calculated using two questions, based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Scale, which ask respondents to rate their present and future lives now on a ladder scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where 0 is the worst possible life and 10 is the best possible life. Depending on their responses, Americans are classified as “thriving,“ “struggling,” or “suffering.” Improvements in 2009 versus 2008 on this metric alone compensated for declines across each of the other five areas that together make up the WellBeing Index. Based on their responses, a new high of 53.3% of American adults were thriving in January, while a new low of 3.0% were suffering. January’s Life Evaluation Index score is not only a new high since tracking began in January 2008, but it is also a 10 point improvement from 40.3 in January 2009 and a 5.50 point improvement from 44.8 in January 2008.

The gains in life evaluation in January 2010 helped to push Americans’ overall wellbeing to its best showing since February 2008. The current 66.8 score also represents a significant improvement from 64.6 in January of last year and is still higher than the prefinancial crisis 66.3 of January 2008.

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February 12, 2010 STANDARD OF LIVING: NORTH DAKOTANS THE MOST SATISFIED Residents of all states more satisfied than dissatisfied; satisfaction up slightly from 2008 by Lydia Saad On a state-by-state basis, U.S. adults’ average satisfaction in 2009 with their own standard of living—that is, “all the things you can buy and do”—fell in a fairly narrow range, from 82.3% in North Dakota at the high end to 69% in Nevada at the low end.

Bottom Line The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index reveals some encouraging signs about Americans’ state of mind, even as hard indicators such as unemployment paint a bleak picture. When asked to rate their own lives, now and in the future, Americans give their best assessments since Gallup and Healthways started tracking wellbeing daily in January 2008. The new high in thriving and new low in suffering scores recorded in January serve as a powerful sign of Americans’ resiliency even as many still struggle with job loss and other consequences of the financial downturn that gripped the country in 2009. Three years of wellbeing tracking highlights that Americans are in many ways faring far better in January 2010 than they were a year ago, and in some cases, they are making gains over January 2008 when the recession was just beginning. In general, measures that individuals can have an effect on at the personal level are improving more so than measures employers and leaders can influence at the organization and community level. Because the sum total of these elements is the best measure of wellbeing, employers and leaders have the opportunity to join individuals in doing all they can to move these measures for the better. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 29,483 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 1-31, 2010, and similar samples in months prior to that. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Geographically, the states that were home to residents with the highest levels of satisfaction with their standard of living (77% or greater) in 2009 are concentrated in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, plus Alaska, Hawaii, and Virginia. Of the four least satisfied (all with satisfaction scores below 71%), two are in the ailing Rust Belt (Ohio and Michigan); the others are economically troubled Nevada and Rhode Island. The 2009 satisfaction results are based on combined data for Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 2 through Dec. 30, 2009, including more than 350,000 interviews for the entire year. The state sample sizes range from 632 in the District of Columbia and 878 in Wyoming to 37,203 in California. Forty-one states had more than 2,000 respondents. Several states showed a small, but statistically meaningful, improvement in satisfaction with their standard of living in the past year. Satisfaction in Mississippi, Delaware, and North Dakota increased by more than five percentage points between 2008 and 2009, and in Connecticut, Maine, and New York it increased by more than four points. Overall, 31 states showed an increase in satisfaction of at least one percentage point between 2008 and 2009, whereas 5 showed a decrease of at least one point (the greatest decrease, Hawaii’s, was less than four points). The remaining 14 states plus the District of Columbia changed by less than one point. Standard of Living Reviews Don’t Entirely Match Economic Confidence The public’s broad satisfaction with its standard of living in 2009, contrasts with state residents’ uniformly pessimistic views of national economic conditions (ranging from -16 to -47). In terms of rankings, there is a fair amount of consistency between states whose residents hold the most positive perceptions of their standard of living and states with the least negative perceptions of the economy. The reverse is also true—those highly negative (or

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• Conversely, South Carolina (71.4%) and Georgia (71.0%) were among the least satisfied with their standard of living, but registered about average levels of economic confidence. Additionally, Hawaii, Wyoming, Maine, Pennsylvania, and Arizona all rank much higher among the states according to satisfaction with standard of living than they do on the basis of economic confidence. Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Louisiana, the District of Columbia, and North Carolina all rank significantly lower on satisfaction with standard of living than they do on economic confidence. Bottom Line Despite the many serious economic problems facing the country in 2009—and consumers’ resulting pessimism about the economy—the great majority of residents of every state were upbeat about their own standard of living last year. This still left nearly 30% of Americans dissatisfied in many states, highlighting the clear need for improvement. However, in most states the 2009 readings were slightly improved over 2008. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 353,848 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2009, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of error for most states is ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±5 percentage points for the District of Columbia. For the most populous states, the margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 12, 2010 IN U.S., UNEMPLOYMENT JUMPS TO TOP PROBLEM STATUS Percentage mentioning unemployment highest since 1983 by Jeffrey M. Jones

less positive) on one measure tend to be among the most negative on the other. However, there are several major exceptions to this. • Two of the states reporting the highest levels of satisfaction with their standard of living—Montana (78.0%) and Idaho (77.6%)— had among the least positive outlooks on the U.S. economy last year (with Gallup Economic Confidence Index values of -38 and -42, respectively).

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The percentage of Americans mentioning unemployment as the most important problem facing the United States rose nine percentage points in the past month, from 22% to 31%, and has nearly doubled since December. As recently as November 2008, the figure was in the single digits. Gallup has not measured a higher percentage of Americans mentioning unemployment since October 1983, when 41% did. The increase comes after President Obama and congressional Democrats have stated that a jobs bill would be their top legislative priority. Now, unemployment ties the economy in general terms as the most important problem. Until this month, the economy in general ranked alone as the top issue on the list every month since February 2008, when it displaced the Iraq war. In the latest update, based on a Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll, healthcare is third at 23%, followed by the federal budget deficit (11%) and dissatisfaction with government (10%).

36% last August. Since that time, the percentage satisfied has generally trended downward.

February also saw an increase in mentions of the economy in general terms, from 25% in January to 31%, and the federal budget deficit, from 6% to 11%. This is the first time mentions of the federal budget deficit have reached double figures since July 1996. The increases in mentions of these specific economic issues result in an increase in the “net” percentage of Americans who named any economic concern (including unemployment, the economy in general, and the federal budget deficit, but also inflation, taxes, and wages) as the nation’s most important problem. In all, 72% of Americans mentioned some economic issue in response to the question this month, up sharply from 57% last month and the highest since the 76% recorded last April. The all-time high of 86% mentioning an economic concern was also reached last year, in February.

Satisfaction is low from a historical perspective. The historical Gallup average since 1979 is 40%. Democrats are currently not highly satisfied with the state of the United States, though, at 33%, they are considerably more satisfied than independents (20%) and Republicans (8%). Bottom Line Concerns about unemployment have surged to levels not seen since 1983 and, after subsiding to some degree in recent months, economic issues again dominate Americans’ perceptions of the most important problems facing the country. Although public satisfaction with the state of the nation is better than the historically low levels measured in 2008, it is generally trending downward and remains low from a historical perspective. The president and Congress have made job creation their primary focus as they try to boost Americans’ spirits heading into the important midterm elections. Survey Methods

Healthcare remains a prominent concern for Americans even as the fate of a reform bill in Congress is increasingly uncertain. In fact, mentions of healthcare actually rose from 18% last month to 23% this month, just below the recent peak of 26% in late August/early September 2009.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Satisfaction Drops to 21% The poll also finds 21% of Americans saying they are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, the lowest figure since March 2009, when it was 19%. Satisfaction was even lower for most of 2008 and the first few months of 2009, but climbed to as high as

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February 15, 2010 WELLBEING: HAWAII TOPS UTAH FOR NATION’S BEST Compared with 2008, 27 states improved, 18 deteriorated, and 5 unchanged by Elizabeth Mendes Hawaii’s residents had the highest wellbeing in the nation in 2009, pulling ahead of 2008 leader Utah, and coming in with a new high state Well-Being Index score of 70.2. Utah and Montana are also among the top wellbeing states in the country, sharing the same score of 68.3. Kentucky (62.3) and West Virginia (60.5) have the two lowest wellbeing scores, as they did in 2008.

access across each of the basic necessities asked about in the subindex, but that still leaves a large number who are in need, representing millions of people. Survey Methods

Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index 2009 state-level data encompass more than 350,000 interviews conducted among national adults aged 18 older across all 50 states. Gallup and Healthways started tracking state-level wellbeing in 2008. The Well-Being Index score for the nation and for each state is an average of six subindexes, which individually examine life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. The Well-Being Index is calculated on a scale of 0 to 100, where a score of 100 would represent ideal wellbeing. Well-Being Index scores among states vary by a narrow range of 9.7 points. The 2009 Well-Being Index score for the country is 65.9, unchanged from 2008. Nine of the top 10 wellbeing states—Hawaii, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, Kansas, Montana, Colorado, Utah, and Alaska—are in the Midwest and the West. Seven of the 11 lowest wellbeing states are in the South. The general geography of wellbeing in 2009 remained similar to 2008. In addition to having the highest overall Well-Being Index score, Hawaii was best in the nation on three of the six wellbeing subindexes, Life Evaluation, Emotional Health, and Physical Health. At the opposite end of the spectrum is West Virginia, which performed the worst on the same three sub-indexes. Utah does the best on the Work Environment Index, with a score more than 10 points higher than that of the worst state on this measure, Delaware. As in 2008, Mississippi is at the bottom on the Basic Access Index, and Kentucky scores the worst on the Healthy Behavior Index. Each state’s sub-index score reflects the average of the positive percentages found for each of the items detailed in the chart below. For example, Mississippi’s Basic Access Index score of 77.3 means that, on average, more than three-quarters of its residents do have

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THE GALLUP POLL

Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 353,849 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2009, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.2 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for most states is ±1 to ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±4 points for smaller states such as Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Hawaii. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index categorizes the District of Columbia as a congressional district. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 15, 2010 AMERICANS SEE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN U.S. GLOBAL IMAGE For first time since 2004, slim majority say world views U.S. favorably by Lydia Saad After five years when fewer than half of Americans believed the United States was seen favorably in the eyes of the world, Gallup’s decade-long trend lines on this measure have again crossed. Fiftyone percent now say the U.S. is viewed favorably, up from 45% a year ago.

Also positive with respect to U.S. attitudes about the country’s global image: 56% of Americans believe leaders of other countries around the world respect President Barack Obama. While this is lower than the soaring 67% who perceived this a year ago, shortly after Obama took office, it continues to far outpace the levels received by Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton during most of their terms. Only Bush achieved a similarly high percentage on this measure (in the first few months after 9/11), but that quickly eroded as international criticism of him over the Iraq war mounted after 2002. However, even prior to 9/11, fewer than half of Americans thought Bush was well-regarded internationally. The same was true for Clinton in the two measurements taken toward the beginning and toward the end of his presidency, in 1994 and 2000.

this year’s drop in the percentage believing that world leaders view Obama favorably. However, neither those improved attitudes nor Obama’s handling of foreign policy has elevated Americans’ reported satisfaction with the United States’ position in the world. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 16, 2010 IN U.S., 6 IN 10 VIEW IRAN AS CRITICAL THREAT TO U.S. INTERESTS International terrorism viewed as top threat to U.S. by Jeffrey M. Jones Both sets of findings are consistent with Gallup’s worldwide polling that shows a significant improvement since Obama took office in how residents of more than 100 countries view the United States. The global median job approval rating for U.S. leadership rose from 34% in 2008 to 51% in 2009. Although more Americans now than in the past believe the U.S. and its president are held in high regard by the world community, there has been little improvement in Americans’ satisfaction with the United States’ position in the world. Currently, 35% are satisfied, similar to the 32% found last year at the start of the Obama administration and only slightly better than the 30% in the last year of the Bush administration. Not since April 2003 have a majority of Americans been satisfied with the United States’ global position.

A Gallup poll finds 61% of Americans viewing the military power of Iran as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests over the next 10 years. An additional 29% say Iran is an important, though not a critical, threat to the United States. The findings come as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is seeking the support of several Arab nations for additional sanctions on Iran in a trip to the region this week.

Bottom Line Americans’ perceptions of how the U.S. is viewed internationally and, in particular, how the president himself is viewed, have grown more positive since the end of the Bush administration, even with

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The findings are based on a Feb. 1-3 Gallup poll that asked Americans to assess the threat of each of seven international issues to the United States. Only international terrorism was more likely to be rated as a critical threat to U.S. vital interests than Iran. Americans rated the military power of North Korea and Iran as equal threats.

The poll was conducted prior to Clinton’s trip, and it is unclear whether her remarks have changed Americans’ views on how serious a threat Iran is to the United States. Clinton warned that Iran is moving toward a military dictatorship as the United States and other nations seek to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Changes in Views of Issues as Threats Terrorism also ranked as the top issue in 2004, when Gallup last asked this question. Americans’ perceptions of the threat of international terrorism are essentially the same today as six years ago. In 2004, 82% said terrorism was a critical threat to U.S. interests, compared with the 81% in the latest poll. Similarly, there has been essentially no change in the perceived threat of the India-Pakistan conflict. However, since 2004, Americans have become more likely to view the military power of China as a critical threat (39% in 2004 vs. 46% today) and the military power of Russia as a threat (18% vs. 23%). The biggest change has been with respect to the conflict in the Middle East. The percentage of Americans believing the IsraeliPalestinian conflict is a critical threat to the U.S. has fallen from 58% to 47%.

Bottom Line It’s not clear whether the United States will succeed in getting the international community to impose additional sanctions on Iran. Nine in 10 Americans view Iran as an important threat to U.S. vital interests, including 61% who say it is a critical threat. That puts concern about Iran on par with North Korea, another nation with nuclear ambitions, and behind only international terrorism.

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THE GALLUP POLL

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 17, 2010 MISSISSIPPIANS GO TO CHURCH THE MOST; VERMONTERS, LEAST Overall, 42% of Americans attend church weekly or almost weekly by Frank Newport Mississippians were the most frequent churchgoers in the nation in 2009, as was the case in 2008, with 63% of residents attending weekly or almost every week. Nine of the top 10 states in church attendance are in the South; the only non-Southern state is Utah, with 56% frequent attendance. At the other end of the spectrum, 23% of Vermont residents attend church frequently, putting it at the bottom of the list of churchgoing states. Other states at the bottom of the church attendance list are in either New England or the West.

Gallup’s compilation of church attendance data is based on more than 350,000 interviews conducted among national adults, aged 18 and older, across all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2009. Gallup began tracking state-level church attendance on a daily basis in 2008, asking respondents how often they “attend church, synagogue, or mosque—at least once a week, almost every week, about once a month, seldom, or never.” Frequent church attendance for the purpose of this analysis is defined as those who report attending at least once a week or almost every week. Nationally, 41.6% of all Americans in 2009 said they attended church this often. Church attendance levels are widely dispersed across the states, with the highest levels generally occurring in the South and the Midwest, and the lowest in the Northeast and the West.

Nine of the top 10 states in church attendance—Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas—are in the South. Utah, with its high concentration of churchgoing Mormons, provides a Western exception. Six of the lowest church-attending states are in New England— Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut—while the others are in the West: Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon, Alaska, and Washington.

Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of sampling error for most states is ±1 to ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±4 points for smaller states such as Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Hawaii. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 17, 2010 ONE IN THREE CITE “AMERICAN PEOPLE” AS KEY U.S. ASSET Poor governance ranks as top perceived national weakness by Lydia Saad Bottom Line Despite the generally high degree of geographic mobility in the U.S. in recent decades, and the commonality of experience brought about by exposure to mass media and the Internet, substantial state differences in churchgoing behavior persist. Well over half of all residents in a number of Southern states and Utah report attending religious services weekly or almost every week, compared to below a third who attend frequently in New England and several Western states. At the extremes, the range in average church attendance between Mississippi and Vermont is 40 points. One explanation for these wide differences in religious behavior is the substantial differences by state in religious identity. The Southern states have high proportions of residents who identify as Protestant, non-Catholic Christians—faith traditions with high average church attendance levels. Residents of New England, the Northwest, and other Western states are more likely to have no religious identity, usually associated with low church attendance. And the majority of Utah residents are Mormons, a group with the highest average church attendance level of any major religious group in the country. Ethnic and racial differences may account for some of the stateby-state differences in churchgoing. Black Americans have the highest church-attendance averages of any major racial or ethnic group, and Southern states have a relatively high proportion of blacks in their populations. There also may be cultural differences across states that are related to religious behavior. These differences may be so strong that they help shape the behavior of newly arrived residents. Or, certain types of people may be attracted to certain types of states. Individuals, who are attracted to Vermont and Alaska, by way of example, may be the types of people who are less inclined to participate in religious services than are those attracted to Southern or Midwestern states. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 353,849 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted in 2009 as part of

Americans were asked in a recent USA Today/Gallup survey to name the one or two strengths of the United States that make them feel most optimistic about the future of the country and, conversely, the main weaknesses that make them the most pessimistic. The American people themselves, named by 35%, and the nation’s military (14%) dominate the list of perceived strengths.

The “American people” category includes a number of basic qualities that Americans cite in response to this question: their spirit, optimism, strength, will, resilience, cohesiveness, patriotism, and diversity. However, many of those citing Americans as the nation’s top strength simply say “the American people.” Other strengths in the top 10 include U.S. technology and innovation (6%), freedom (5%), and the economy (5%). At least 5% of Americans also mention government leadership generally, and President Obama specifically. Poor governance—including “politics,” poor leadership, Congress, corruption, and inefficiency—ranks as the leading weakness that Americans say makes them feel the most pessimistic about the country’s future. Twenty percent of Americans mention this. Other factors named by at least 10% are the military—including involvement in wars and vulnerability to terrorism (15%)—the economy (13%), lack of healthcare (11%), and lack of jobs (10%).

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14% from December’s $132, and essentially matching their $110 average of a year ago.

Bottom Line Americans are most likely to consider the qualities of the common people to be the nation’s best hope for the future. The 35% citing the spirit and will of Americans as a national strength far outweighs the 5% citing Americans’ apathy as a national weakness. The military is more of a double-edged sword: 14% cite the nation’s military strength and superiority as a national strength, but 15% cite military unpreparedness, lack of security from terrorism, and involvement in wars as a national weakness. While a small segment of Americans (5%) believe the government in general is a key strength—and an additional 5% cite President Obama as a strength specifically—20% see poor leadership in government as one of the country’s leading weaknesses, with an additional 9% citing the federal budget deficit.

Middle- and lower-income Americans (those making less than $90,000 a year) likewise reported 13% less spending in January ($54 per day) than in December ($62), and slightly less than in January 2009 ($58).

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Upper-income Americans’ spending in January returned to the relatively tight range ($107-$121) that, with the exceptions of October and December, characterized this group in 2009. Since upperincome households by definition have more disposable income and, thus, tend to do more discretionary spending than other Americans, this return to the 2009 range likely represents a resumption of the “new normal” spending patterns. The slight decline in middle- and lower-income spending confirms this. Spending New Normal

February 18, 2010 CONSUMERS’ SPENDING THIS JANUARY WAS JUST LIKE THE LAST Americans’ spending returns to “new normal” levels across nearly all demographic groups by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Contrary to the impression given by some recent government reports, Americans’ self-reported spending declined in January 2010 compared with December, returning to the seeming “new normal” levels of 2009. Americans in upper-income households (those making $90,000 or more a year) reported spending an average of $113 per day in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online in January—down

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Probably the most stunning aspect of January’s self-reported spending results is the way spending among upper-income Americans returned to the 2009 new-normal spending range. Evidently these Americans decided to use their discretionary income during the holidays, but pulled back once more in early 2010. Older Americans and women show a similar pattern, increasing their spending in December and pulling back once more in January 2010. Consumer spending during the first two weeks of February shows a similar pattern. Year-over-year comparisons show consumer spending returning to the new-normal range of last year. Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup consumer spending results are based on random half-samples of approximately

500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Results for January are based on telephone interviews with more than 14,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Results for the various breakouts reported here are based on interviews with more than 1,000 respondents with a maximum margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Compared with last year, slightly fewer Americans now say defense spending is about right, with small but equal gains in the percentages who say the United States is spending too much and too little.

February 18, 2010 AMERICANS MORE DIVIDED ON STRENGTH OF NATIONAL DEFENSE Nearly as many now say it is “not strong enough” as say it is “about right” by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are more likely now (45%) than they were a year ago (37%) to say the United States’ national defense is “not strong enough.” At the same time, fewer believe the nation’s defense is “about right.”

These results are based on Gallup’s annual World Affairs poll, conducted Feb. 1-3. Gallup has asked Americans to evaluate the national defense of the United States periodically since 1984 and yearly since 1999. Americans typically say the U.S. national defense is about right or not strong enough, with relatively few saying it is too strong. Currently, Americans are equally likely to say national defense is about right or not strong enough. The current figures are similar to the opinions Gallup measured from 2006 to 2008, and the 45% who now believe the nation’s defense is not strong enough is just two points shy of the 2008 high. Last year’s rosier assessment may have been a temporary shift owing to positive feelings toward the new president, as the poll was conducted during the initial weeks of Barack Obama’s administration. When asked about the government’s spending on the military and national defense, Americans do not show a great degree of consensus—36% say the government is spending “about the right amount,” 34% say “too much,” and 27% “too little.”

Gallup has asked this question since 1969, and the current results are similar to the historical average over this time. The high point in the percentage saying the U.S. is spending too much, 52%, came in that initial 1969 measurement, as the U.S. was engaged in the Vietnam War. The high point in saying the U.S. is spending too little on defense came at the very beginning of the Reagan administration, in January 1981. Reagan campaigned on strengthening the military, and greatly increased defense spending during his presidency. By November 1982, the percentage of Americans who said the U.S. was spending too little on defense dropped to 16%.

Bottom Line Americans are less likely this year than last year to say the nation’s defense, and the amount the government spends on it, is where they think it should be. Americans’ views on the two issues are not entirely consistent, though. Whereas 7% say national defense is stronger than needed, 34% say the government spends too much on defense. And while 45% say national defense is not strong enough, a smaller 27% believe too little is spent in this regard.

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These apparent inconsistencies may reflect Americans’ priorities for government spending as much as an assessment of the current situation, especially since Democrats tend to favor a reduction in military spending and Republicans an increase. Americans may also be reluctant to call for increased defense spending even if they think the military is not as strong as it should be because they have concerns over the amount of overall government spending in general and the growing federal budget deficit in particular. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 19, 2010 IN U.S., CANADA PLACES FIRST IN IMAGE CONTEST; IRAN LAST Favorable views of Russia, Palestinian Authority up slightly; views of Iraq down

Eight of the countries rated in this year’s World Affairs survey are viewed favorably by a majority of Americans. Great Britain nearly matches Canada in favorability, while smaller majorities hold positive views of Germany, Japan, Israel, India, France, and Egypt. Mexico and Russia are both about as likely to be viewed unfavorably as favorably, while 10 countries are generally viewed unfavorably. Yemen was included on the list for the first time this year, amid news that the Christmas Day underwear bomber had ties to a Yemenbased al Qaeda terrorist group. Its 21% favorable rating is among the lowest in the Feb. 1-3 poll, although about one in four Americans has no opinion of that country. Only Iraq saw a statistically significant, albeit small, drop in favorability over the past year on the basis of the combined percentages viewing each “very favorably” or “mostly favorably.” Most countries’ ratings are essentially unchanged, while favorability toward Russia and the Palestinian Authority is up slightly. Partial Rebound in Views of Russia After dipping to 40% in 2009—most likely in response to the 2008 military conflict between Russia and Georgia—favorability toward Russia has recovered somewhat to 47%; however, this remains lower than where it stood for much of the past decade. The historical high point for positive U.S. feelings toward Russia was 66%, first reached in 1991 and repeated in 2002. However, favorability toward Russia plummeted to 41% in March 2003, after that country sharply opposed the United States’ launching of the Iraq war. (U.S. public opinion of France and Germany, two other countries opposed to the war, also turned more negative in 2003.) By February 2004, Russia’s favorability score was back to 59%, and it remained above 50% until 2008.

by Lydia Saad Americans’ perceptions of 20 nations that figure prominently in the news or U.S. foreign policy held quite steady in the first year of the Obama administration. Canada retained its top position in Gallup’s annual country ratings, with 90% of Americans viewing it favorably, unchanged from 2009. Iran continues to rank last, with 10% this year.

Palestinian Authority Sees Slight Improvement Americans’ views of the official governing body of the Palestinian people—the Palestinian Authority—have been decidedly negative over the years. However, there was a slight improvement in views over the past year, from 15% viewing the Palestinian Authority favorably in 2009 (and just 11% after the Hamas group won the Palestinian elections in 2006) to 20% today. Favorability toward the Palestinian Authority was quite low for most of the Bush administration, except for February 2005, when the two sides had just announced an informal truce during Mideast peace talks. Favorability Toward Mexico Still Dampened Although the two-percentage-point decline in Mexico’s overall favorable rating between 2009 and today is not significant, the result

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is that, for the first time since 1993, fewer than half of Americans have a favorable view of the United States’ southern neighbor. Mexico’s image in the U.S. has generally been in decline since 2005. Heightened U.S. attention to illegal immigration from Mexico, as well as to intensifying violence in the Mexican drug war, could explain the deterioration of Mexico’s U.S. image in recent years.

Gallup first asked Americans to assess the job the United Nations is doing in 1953. Americans have never held the United Nations in particularly high esteem, with a historical average of 40% saying it is doing a good job. The all-time high rating was 58% in 2002 shortly after the Sept. 11 terror attacks produced a rally in Americans’ support for government institutions. Americans’ views of the United Nations have been particularly dour in recent years, coinciding with the U.S. military action in Iraq that began in March 2003. The U.S. government sought United Nations backing for the action, but ultimately the United States and its allies invaded Iraq without U.N. support when it was clear a U.N. resolution authorizing military action in Iraq would not pass. Since 2003, an average of 32% of Americans has said the United Nations is doing a good job, including last year’s historical low of 26%. The new Gallup poll finds Democrats (45%) are twice as likely as Republicans (22%) to evaluate the United Nations positively. At 25%, independents’ views are nearly the same as those of Republicans.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 19, 2010 AMERICANS’ RATING OF UNITED NATIONS IMPROVED, BUT STILL LOW Thirty-one percent of Americans say United Nations is doing a good job

Since last year, Democrats’ ratings have improved the most, from 34% to 45%, and most of the improvement in the United Nations’ image is due to higher ratings from Democrats. Positive ratings from independents (from 22% to 25%) and Republicans (from 20% to 22%) are also up, but not to a meaningful degree. Additionally, young adults give the United Nations a much more positive evaluation than older Americans. The poll finds 51% of 18to 29-year-olds saying the United Nations is doing a good job, while fewer than 30% in the older age groups do.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Thirty-one percent of Americans say the United Nations is doing a good job of solving the problems it has had to face, according to the Feb. 1-3 Gallup World Affairs poll. While still a negative review, the current U.N. rating is a significant improvement over last year’s 26% and the best since 2005.

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Higher ratings of the United Nations from young adults has been the norm in recent years, though the current rating from 18- to 29year-olds is the highest Gallup has measured since 2004 (53%). Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 22, 2010 HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE VARIES WIDELY BY AGE AND INCOME Regardless of age, those with lower incomes much less likely to have coverage

health insurance status of Americans on a year-to-year basis from ages 18-90. Nationally, an average of 16.2% of all Americans did not have health insurance when Gallup interviewed them in 2009. This marks a slight uptick from 2008, the first year Gallup collected comprehensive data on health insurance coverage. As is true with many aspects of American life today, the lack of health insurance is not distributed equally or randomly. There is a distinct age and income pattern when it comes to those who have health insurance. The data also show the role that the government’s national Medicaid, Medicare, and military health insurance programs play in patterns of healthcare coverage, germane to the current debate over healthcare reform. Health Insurance Coverage by Age Among 18-year-olds, the youngest Americans Gallup surveys, 84% have health insurance. This relatively high rate of coverage presumably reflects the fact that these young Americans are still covered under their parents’ insurance policies, something that apparently changes abruptly as they grow into their early 20s. Health insurance coverage reaches the lowest point of the entire age spectrum (66%) at age 22. From age 22 on, the percentage of Americans with health insurance begins to climb, albeit slowly, reaching the 95% level at age 65 when Medicare coverage is officially available.

by Frank Newport As White House and congressional leaders prepare for their bipartisan summit on healthcare on Feb. 25, a new Gallup Daily tracking analysis reinforces the wide degree of variability in health insurance coverage across U.S. population segments. Health insurance coverage is generally lowest in Americans’ mid-twenties and strongly related to income, ranging from a low of 44% among 35-year-olds making less than $24,000 a year to 100% among seniors in their 70s making more than $24,000 a year.

Health Insurance Coverage by Type

Gallup’s health insurance data are based on 353,849 interviews conducted among national adults, aged 18 and older, across all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2009 as part of the Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index. This large number of interviews provides an unprecedented opportunity to examine the

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Overall, 46.8% of Americans in 2009 reported having health insurance paid for privately (employer or union); 24.6% report having Medicaid, Medicare, or military/veterans’ insurance; and 11.1% report having some other type of insurance. The distribution of these sources of health insurance differs dramatically by age. In addition to their relatively high levels of no health insurance coverage at all, Americans in their early 20s are also above average in reporting that they have “some other source” of health insurance. No doubt this reflects coverage under parents’ plans and colleges or other school coverage. (There is also a relatively high percentage of the young group who report Medicaid, Medicare, or military coverage.) As age increases, the percentage of Americans with either no insurance or “other” insurance drops, and the percentage who have insurance paid for by an employer or union climbs. The high point for employer-paid insurance—64%—comes in Americans’ 40s.

February 24, 2010 SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL IN U.S. AT 63%, NEAR RECORD HIGH Near-record-low 30% optimistic about Arab-Israeli peace by Lydia Saad For the first time since 1991, more than 6 in 10 Americans—63%— say their sympathies in the Middle East situation lie more with the Israelis than with the Palestinians. Fifteen percent side more with the Palestinians, down slightly from recent years, while a combined 23% favor both sides, favor neither side, or have no opinion.

Government-paid and “other” insurance sources begin to rise among Americans in their 50s and early 60s. The effect of government-based healthcare is dramatically evident among Americans aged 65 and older. The percentage of Americans with Medicare, Medicaid, or military-paid insurance jumps from 20% at age 64, to 71% at age 66. Interestingly, the percentage of older Americans who report Medicare, Medicaid, or military insurance never quite reaches 80%, regardless of age. Small percentages of older Americans in their 70s and 80s continue to report having employer-paid or “other” insurance. Implications These data underscore the significant degree of variability in health insurance coverage across the American population landscape. About 16% of all Americans did not have health insurance when Gallup interviewed them in 2009. But the percentage without insurance is more than 50% among certain groups of Americans who are in their 30s and who have lower incomes, and drops close to 0% among older Americans who have higher incomes. The age differences in coverage, which occur even among those with higher incomes, suggest that some of the explanation for a lack of coverage is a voluntary decision to do without. At the same time, the basic data on income differences in coverage reinforce the explanation that the lack of insurance coverage to a significant degree reflects economic circumstances, including lack of access to employer-paid insurance.

The 63% sympathizing with Israel today is statistically unchanged from the 58% to 59% seen from 2006 to 2009; however, it is considerably higher than most of the previous readings on this Gallup measure since 1993. The trend includes two 38% readings in 1996 and 1997. Only in January 1991—shortly after Israel was hit by Iraqi Scud missiles during the Gulf War—did U.S. support for Israel register as high as it does today. Over the last five years, support for Israel has increased slightly among Republicans (rising from about 77% for each of the past several years to 85% today) and independents, but has stayed roughly the same among Democrats. Since 2001, however, there has been a more dramatic shift in partisan attitudes: a 25-point increase in sympathy for Israel among Republicans and an 18-point increase among independents. Even on this longer-term basis, support for Israel among Democrats has been relatively flat.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 353,849 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 2009, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The latest findings come from Gallup’s annual World Affairs survey, updated Feb. 1-3, 2010. In the same poll, Americans were asked to give their opinions of 20 countries, including Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Israel’s 67% favorable rating ranks among the

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highest and the Palestinian Authority’s 20% among the lowest. However, current favorability toward Israel is similar to where it has been for the last several years, and favorability toward the Palestinians is on the high end of the range since 2000.

Bottom Line

Outlook for Peace Additionally, the poll asked Americans about the chances that peace will eventually come to the Middle East. Currently, 30% think “there will come a time” when “Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace”; 67% are doubtful. Americans’ attitudes about the prospects for peace are little changed from last year, but are among the more pessimistic Gallup has found since initiating the question in 1997. The only time fewer Americans were optimistic about Arab-Israeli peace (27%) was in July 2006, during the Israeli-Hezbollah war in southern Lebanon. While public optimism has since remained low, it has shown longerterm variations, and has a history of rebounding—particularly after U.S.-brokered peace talks in 1999, 2003, and 2005.

With 39% of Democrats saying peace will come about, this group is more optimistic than either Republicans (25%) or independents (26%) are about Arab-Israeli peace. This has been the general pattern for the past decade; however, the gap between Democrats and others has expanded in recent years. Independents have become significantly less optimistic about the chances of peace since President Obama took office: the percentage believing peace will come about fell from 41% during the last year of the Bush administration (in February 2008) to 30% in May 2009, and stands at 26% today. Optimism among Republicans fell below 30% in 2007 and has since remained low. Democrats’ views have been fairly steady since 2001, except for a brief spurt of optimism in 2005—seen among all three party groups (a major Israeli-Palestinian peace summit that resulted in a truce agreement was underway at the time of that survey).

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In the ongoing Israel-Palestinian conflict, a striking 63% of Americans currently say their sympathies lie more with the Israelis, the highest level in nearly 20 years. Support for the Palestinians, at 15%, is about average for the same period. At the same time, Gallup finds Americans’ fundamental views of Israel no more favorable than they have been for the past several years. Israel does continue to enjoy a substantial advantage over the Palestinian Authority in its general image, a fact that clearly colors the ways Americans view the conflict. Americans are no more optimistic today than they were last year that peace can be reached between Israel and the Palestinians—and they are, in fact, less optimistic than they were toward the end of the Bush administration. This is largely owing to a drop in optimism among independents. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 25, 2010 AMERICANS TILT AGAINST DEMOCRATS’ PLANS IF SUMMIT FAILS Most doubt an agreement will result from Thursday’s summit by Frank Newport Americans are skeptical that lawmakers will agree on a new healthcare bill at Thursday’s bipartisan healthcare summit in Washington, D.C. If an agreement is not reached, Americans by a 49% to 42% margin oppose rather than favor Congress passing a healthcare bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama and Democrats in the House and Senate. By a larger 52% to 39% margin, Americans

also oppose the Democrats in the Senate using a reconciliation procedure to avoid a possible Republican filibuster and pass a bill by a simple majority vote.

These results are based on questions included in a USA TODAY/ Gallup poll of 1,009 Americans conducted Tuesday, Feb. 23. Much discussion has focused on what President Obama and Democratic leaders will do if—as the general public anticipates— there is no agreement on a new bill emanating from Thursday’s summit. President Obama promulgated his proposed healthcare plan on Monday, and one option for the Democratic leadership is to go ahead and attempt to pass this type of bill without Republican buy-in. The poll shows that American public opinion tilts against this option. Not only are 49% of Americans opposed to passing a bill similar to the one proposed by Obama and the Democrats in the House and Senate, compared with 42% in favor, those “strongly” opposed outnumber those “strongly” in favor by 23% to 11%. A follow-up question asked specifically about the use of a parliamentary procedure that would allow the Democratic leaders to avoid a Republican filibuster. Again, Americans are opposed by a slightly larger, 52% to 39% margin, and those opposed are more likely to feel strongly about their opinion than those in favor, 25% to 11%. The survey question defines the legislation in question as being similar to that proposed by President Obama and the Democrats in the House and Senate. It is thus not surprising to find strong partisan differences in response to both questions about passage of a new healthcare bill.

The same type of partisan split occurs in reference to the use of a parliamentary procedure to get passage of the bill through the Senate without a Republican filibuster. Independents again mirror the overall national average—53% oppose and 38% in favor. Of note is the finding that Republicans are more intense in their feelings than are Democrats in their responses to both measures. Republicans who oppose are more likely to say that opposition is strong rather than not strong. On the other hand, Democrats who favor are more likely to say their support is not strongly held. Americans Hold Little Hope That Agreement Will Arise From Summit More than three-quarters of Americans do not believe that the two sides will reach an agreement on a healthcare bill at Thursday’s summit.

Although the bipartisan summit was called by President Obama, more than 7 out of 10 rank-and-file Democrats across the country are pessimistic that an agreement will be reached. Nearly 9 out of 10 Republicans hold this view. Obama Has Edge on Sincerity of Bipartisan Efforts Despite the fact that Americans remain opposed to the passage of the type of healthcare bill President Obama has proposed, the American public gives Obama credit for his efforts at bipartisanship. Fifty-six percent believe that Obama and the Democrats will make a sincere effort at the summit to work with the Republicans in Congress on solutions to healthcare reform; 41% say that the Republicans in Congress will make a sincere effort to work with Obama and the Democrats in Congress.

Republicans are overwhelmingly against passing a bill similar to that proposed by President Obama. Democrats are in favor; although, about a fifth say they oppose such passage. Independents’ responses are roughly the same as the overall national average.

Bottom Line The American public—echoing the sentiment of many observers— is highly doubtful that Thursday’s healthcare summit at the Blair

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February 25, 2010 SPENDING LESS BECOMING NEW NORM FOR MANY AMERICANS An increasing percentage of Americans say they more enjoy saving than spending by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist The recession and financial crisis have resulted in a significant change in the way many Americans feel about spending and saving. Six in 10 Americans (62%) now say they more enjoy saving than spending—while 35% say the reverse. This reflects a shift that began in December 2008 and a marked change from the first half of the decade, when Americans were about evenly split regarding whether they more enjoyed spending or saving. House in Washington will result in a bipartisan agreement on healthcare legislation. By all accounts, President Obama and Democratic leaders have anticipated such an outcome, and they may subsequently attempt to pass healthcare legislation similar to what Obama proposed on Monday. The current poll results, reflecting data from most surveys on healthcare reform over the past several months, show that Americans would be more opposed than in favor of such an action, particularly if passage is based on a reconciliation type procedure designed to avoid a Republican filibuster. The public gives Obama some credit for his attempts at bipartisanship on this issue; more say that the president and Democratic leaders will make a sincere effort to work with the Republicans than say the Republicans will make a sincere effort to work with the Democrats. Still, with Obama’s job approval rating on handling healthcare below 50%, and evidence that opposition to new healthcare legislation is more firmly held than is support, the results underscore the difficult public opinion environment in which Democrats find themselves as they attempt to finalize their months-long efforts at creating new healthcare legislation. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,009 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 23, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

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Men and women are about equally likely to say they more enjoy saving rather than spending, and preferences are also essentially the same across income levels and regions. However, those who are not married (39%) are more likely than those who are married (31%) to say they more enjoy spending. Americans aged 18 to 29 (43%) are likewise more likely than those 50 and older (29%) to enjoy spending, as are liberals (45%), compared to moderates (35%) and conservatives (32%).

Spending Less Is the New Normal for Many Americans Nearly six in 10 Americans (57%) now say they are spending less money in recent months than they used to, up from 50% last July and 53% last April. Thirty-eight percent of all Americans say this reduced spending will be their new, normal spending pattern while 19% say their cutbacks are temporary.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

February 26, 2010 AMERICANS SEE U.S. MILITARY AS NO. 1 NOW, BUT NOT IN 20 YRS. Most also believe U.S. will routinely be involved in combat in next two decades by Frank Newport While 64% of Americans believe the U.S. is the No. 1 military power in the world today, many fewer (36%) believe that the U.S. will be No. 1 militarily in 20 years. At the same time, most Americans believe the U.S. will continue to have combat troops regularly involved in fighting around the world over the next two decades. These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Jan. 8-10. In addition to assessing Americans’ views of the status of U.S. military strength in 20 years compared with today, the poll asked Americans about their expectations of U.S. military involvement in combat situations over the next two decades. Given a choice between the two scenarios outlined in the question, more than two-thirds of Americans (67%) say they believe active military involvement of U.S. combat troops will be the norm over the next two decades. That’s more than twice as many as believe there will be long periods of time in which the U.S. is not actively involved in combat (30%).

Unlike many attitudes relating to national defense today, there are minor partisan differences in views of the level of U.S. military involvement around the world in the coming decades. Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to believe the U.S. will be involved in regular military engagements. There are also few significant differences by age. The youngest group of Americans is similar to the oldest group of Americans in its views about the future role of the military. The U.S. as No. 1 Military Power Internationally Gallup has asked Americans about the U.S. military’s “No. 1” status five times, beginning in March 1993, and with follow-ups in 1999, 2000, 2007, and January of this year. Thus, there is no record of how Americans felt on this issue immediately after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, nor in the first several years of the Iraq war. (And, of course, there is no historical record of how Americans would have perceived the comparative status of U.S. military strength during World War II, the Cold War, during the substantial military buildup in the Reagan administration, or in the aftermath of the successful first Persian Gulf War in 1991.) Still, based on the limited trend data available, the current 64% who say the U.S. is No. 1 militarily is—by one percentage point—the highest such reading across the five times the question has been asked. The low point for Americans’ views of their nation’s military standing came in May of 1999, when 51% said the U.S. was No. 1. Three years ago, in February 2007, 60% said the U.S. was No. 1 militarily. The current poll marks the first time Gallup has asked Americans to forecast the strength of the United States’ military standing

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As was the case for views of U.S. military involvement in the decades ahead, there are few partisan differences in views of the U.S. military’s “No. 1” status, either current or future. Bottom Line

20 years from now. The results show that many fewer Americans believe the U.S. will be No. 1 in two decades than believe it is today. Not surprisingly, most of those who do not believe the U.S. is No. 1 in the world now also believe the U.S. will not be No. 1 in 20 years. About half of those who say the U.S. is No. 1 today believe the U.S. will continue to enjoy that status in 20 years.

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Given the nature of these findings, it might be tempting to hypothesize that Americans’ pessimism about the nation’s military superiority is connected to their beliefs that the U.S. will be engaged in continuous combat situations over that period. This does not, however, appear to be the case. Analysis shows that Americans who think the U.S. will be regularly involved militarily are no less likely to say that the U.S. will be No. 1 militarily in 20 years than are those who believe the U.S. will not be regularly involved in combat. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 8-10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

as lawyers, doctors, teachers, and accountants, are the most likely to say their jobs are ideal. Manufacturing or production workers (61%), clerical or office workers (61%), and those in service jobs (60%), such as barbers, nurse’s aides, policemen, firefighters, and waiters, are the least likely to say their jobs are ideal.

March 01, 2010 SEVEN IN 10 U.S. WORKERS SAY THEIR JOBS ARE IDEAL Across job types, business owners the most likely to say their jobs are ideal by Jenny Marlar Gallup Daily tracking reveals that 7 in 10 employed Americans say their jobs are ideal, leaving nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce who feel their jobs aren’t exactly right for them.

In light of the relationship between income and ideal job status, it may come as no surprise that business owners and professional workers are two of the most likely groups to say their jobs are ideal, as these sectors also tend to receive higher pay than service and clerical workers do. However, differences between groups persist, even when controlling for household income. For example, when professionals and service workers are compared, differences in ideal job ratings are seen at nearly all income levels.

These results are based on interviews with more than 18,000 employed U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, conducted during January 2010. While majorities of respondents at all income levels report that their jobs are ideal, the percentage saying so increases with income. Americans with annual household incomes of at least $120,000 per year are the most likely to say their jobs are ideal (77%), while those making less than $12,000 per year are the least likely (57%). Bottom Line At a time when job growth remains stagnant and many are being forced to take on work below their qualifications, the majority of American workers evaluate their jobs favorably. Although household income is correlated with one’s ideal job, it isn’t the only factor driving “ideal” job evaluations. Demographics suggest that experienced, educated workers in specialized fields view their jobs most favorably, while those who are at the beginning of their careers and working in professions not generally associated with advanced educational attainment (clerical, service, retail, and manufacturing) are among the least likely to say their jobs are ideal. Survey Methods Ideal Job and Work Sector Perceptions of one’s job as “ideal” also differ by job sector. Business owners (87%), farmers (82%), and professional workers (79%), such

Results are based on telephone interviews with 18,269 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-31, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%

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confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Toyoda—testified at congressional hearings regarding safety and company practices last week. Toyota’s share of the U.S. auto market has already suffered because of the safety issues. The poll attempted to assess the longerterm impact of the recall by asking those who plan to buy or lease a car within the next three years whether they would consider Toyota vehicles. In all, 17% of prospective car buyers say they will no longer consider Toyotas because of the recalls. But three times as many likely car buyers, 53%, say they would still consider buying or leasing a Toyota, suggesting that there remains a potentially large market for Toyotas in the United States. Twenty-nine percent of likely U.S. car buyers say they would not have considered a Toyota even before the recalls.

March 02, 2010 AMERICANS, TOYOTA OWNERS STILL CONFIDENT IN TOYOTA VEHICLES One in six prospective car buyers say they will no longer consider Toyotas by Jeffrey M. Jones Sixty percent of Americans believe Toyota’s vehicles are safe, and 61% say they have not lost confidence in the automaker despite the safety issues that have resulted in large-scale recalls of Toyota vehicles. Current Toyota owners are even more positive about the company’s cars—74% say they have not lost confidence in Toyota vehicles and 82% think they are safe to ride in.

Among current Toyota owners who are likely to buy or lease a car in the near future, 11% say they no longer will consider buying or leasing a Toyota because of the recent recalls; 79% still would. This high degree of Toyota loyalty may stem in part from the fact that relatively few Toyota owners claim to be affected by the recalls. Just 14% say their vehicle appeared on the recall list for gas pedal problems, while 70% say their car was not on the list, and 16% are unsure. Bottom Line The safety concerns surrounding Toyota vehicles are surely not welcome news for the automaker. While Americans are generally critical of the company’s response to the matter, most believe the company’s vehicles are safe and say their confidence in the automaker has not been affected. Toyota’s sales likely will continue to suffer, but most Americans in the car-buying or leasing market— and about three-quarters of those who would have considered a Toyota before the recent recalls—say they will still consider buying or leasing a Toyota vehicle. Survey Methods

These results are based on a new USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 27-28, as Toyota confronts safety issues affecting some of its vehicles, most notably for unexpected acceleration. The company issued recalls for many of its models to address the problem, which has been attributed to the vehicles’ floor mats and to sticky gas pedals. Toyota executives—including company President Akio

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Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 2,021 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 27-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 495 adults whose household owns or leases a Toyota or Lexus vehicle, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 990 adults who plan to buy or lease a vehicle within the next three years, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 03, 2010 DEMOCRATS’ ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE TOPS INDEPENDENTS’, REPUBLICANS’ Confidence levels in February similar to those of previous months by Frank Newport Democrats were less negative than either independents or Republicans about the economy in February, as has been the case since shortly after President Barack Obama took office in early 2009. Democrats’ -10 reading on Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index in February compares to -34 among independents and -44 among Republicans.

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is based on Americans’ answers to two questions—one asking about current economic conditions in the country and the other about their economic outlook. Americans’ views of the economy clearly reflect their political orientation and can vary sharply, depending on which party controls the White House. Republicans are most positive when there is a Republican president. Democrats are the most positive when the president is a Democrat. This pattern is starkly apparent when one compares the trends in economic confidence by party identification over the past two years, spanning the transfer of the presidency from George W. Bush to Obama. Economic confidence dropped across all three partisan groups in 2008, but Republicans remained consistently less negative than independents or Democrats throughout the year. Obama became president in late January 2009. In the following month, February, economic confidence across the three party groups equalized, a fairly rare occurrence, with each group recording confidence in a narrow range between -56 and -60. From March 2009 to the present, however, Democrats have reported significantly more positive economic confidence levels than have either independents or Republicans. Democrats’ economic confidence reached its most positive point of the last two years (-3) in August 2009, and is currently at -10.

Independents and Republicans also became more positive through the first part of last year, but not nearly to the same degree as Democrats. Independents were at -31 in August and September (their most positive point during the last two years) and are at -34 today. Republicans improved to -36 in September and are at -44 today. Overall Trends in Economic Confidence From a broader perspective, economic confidence has been fairly stable for a number of months, after dropping from -32 in January 2008 to its low point of -60 in late 2008. Economic confidence last month (-29) is slightly more negative than it was in January and December, but slightly more positive than in November.

Bottom Line Americans’ views of the current economy and of the economy’s direction appear to reflect more than objective economic indicators such as joblessness, gross domestic product growth, and the business activity Americans see around them. Economic confidence clearly reflects political confidence as well. Within a month or two of Obama’s presidential inauguration in January 2009, Democrats became strikingly more positive about the economy, and have remained positive, on a relative basis. Republicans’ economic confidence had been dropping in the waning months of the Bush administration and, although it improved modestly in the first part of 2009, has remained well below the confidence of Democrats since then. Independents’ confidence was slightly more positive than Democrats’ in 2008 (but well below Republicans’ confidence) and has been slightly more positive than Republicans’ in 2009 and 2010 (but well below Democrats’ confidence). These data show that a rising and falling tide can lift and lower all ships to some degree, given that all three partisan groups’ confidence fell in 2008 and that all three increased in confidence at least

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slightly in 2009. The largest shifts occurred within partisan groups, however, with Republicans’ confidence falling dramatically between early 2008 and January 2009, and Democrats’ rising sharply in 2009 between January and the summer. The data make it clear that monthto-month shifts in confidence in the economy can reflect political factors as much as or more than economic factors. Survey Methods Results for February are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 13,832 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-28, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 03, 2010 UNDEREMPLOYMENT 19.8% IN FEBRUARY, ON PAR WITH JANUARY A majority of the underemployed are not hopeful about finding work

methodological differences between how Gallup calculates and how the government calculates its estimates. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the U.S. workforce aged 16 and older. Gallup data are not seasonally adjusted and are based on respondents aged 18 and older. No Burst of Hope, or Loss of Hope Hope for finding a job remained flat in February: 40% of the underemployed were hopeful that they would find a job in the next four weeks, compared to 39% in January. Gallup asks the unemployed whether they think they will have a job in the next four weeks, and asks those who are employed part time but want to work full time whether they think they will have a job in the next four weeks that requires them to work 30 hours or more per week. Hope among both the unemployed (47%) and part-timers wanting to work full time (32%) remained unchanged from January to February.

by Jenny Marlar Gallup Daily tracking finds that 19.8% of the U.S. workforce was underemployed in February, on par with January’s 19.9% reading.

Spending

These results are based on February interviews with more than 19,000 adults in the U.S. workforce, aged 18 and older. Gallup classifies respondents as “employed” if they are employed full time or are employed part time but do not want to work full time. Gallup classifies respondents as “underemployed” if they are employed part time but want to work full time or are unemployed. Unemployed respondents are not employed, looking for work, and available for work. February’s 19.8% underemployed estimate includes 10.6% who are unemployed and 9.2% who are working part time but wanting full-time employment (neither estimate is seasonally adjusted, and both are based on adults 18 and older). Both figures are similar to January’s estimates. Although Gallup’s data trend closely with figures put out by the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are important

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Underemployed respondents reported spending 35% less than fully employed respondents in February, almost identical to the 36% gap found in January. Employed respondents reported average daily spending of $71 in February, compared to $75 in January. Underemployed respondents’ February average daily reported spending was $46, compared to $48 in January. Bottom Line Despite indications that the U.S. economy may be recovering, underemployment remains high. Gallup estimates that nearly 30 million Americans continue to work less than their desired capacity, and the majority of these remain unhopeful that they will find work in the next four weeks. The underemployed also continue to spend significantly less than their employed counterparts, potentially costing the economy hundreds of millions of dollars each month.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 19,173 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 3,799 adults who are underemployed, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 04, 2010 AGE GROUPS DIFFER ON OBAMA MORE THAN ON BUSH, CLINTON Young adults much more likely than senior citizens to approve of Obama

ruary 2010. Clinton averaged 55% approval as president and Bush 49% among all U.S. adults; Obama averages 57% thus far. Clinton’s average approval ratings by age group were remarkably consistent, varying by only as much as three percentage points between groups. Clinton’s highest rating (57%) came from 18- to 29year-olds and his lowest (54%) from 50- to 64-year-olds. Bush’s approval ratings showed slightly more variation, but only as much as a six-point spread between age groups. Bush averaged 52% approval among 30- to 49-year-olds and 46% among both young adults and senior citizens. The greater age variation in Obama’s ratings results largely from his high approval ratings from young adults; his ratings among older age groups fall within a fairly narrow six-point range (51% to 57%). Obama’s approval ratings among young adults have consistently exceeded those among older Americans throughout his presidency. Even as his overall approval rating has declined to the 50% range in recent months, his support among young adults remains relatively strong, averaging 60% last month. By comparison, an average of 43% of senior citizens approved of the job Obama was doing in February.

Obama’s strong appeal to young adults was evident even prior to his becoming president. Young adults were one of his strongest constituencies in the 2008 general presidential election against John McCain and in Obama’s Democratic presidential nomination campaign against Hillary Clinton. Bottom Line

by Jeffrey M. Jones Barack Obama’s job approval rating averages 66% among young adults during his presidency, 15 percentage points higher than for senior citizens and at least nine points higher than for any other age group. During their presidencies, George W. Bush’s and Bill Clinton’s approval ratings showed much less variation by age.

While some patterns of support for presidents (such as by political party) are predictable, others are less so. That appears to be the case with support for President Obama by age group. Obama maintains a unique appeal to younger Americans while attracting considerably less support among senior citizens. The variation in Obama’s job approval ratings by age stands in contrast to the rather limited variation in approval ratings by age for his two immediate predecessors.

These data are based on the Gallup averages for the entire Clinton and Bush presidencies and for Obama’s presidency through Feb-

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March 05, 2010 OBAMA RETAINS MORE TRUST THAN CONGRESS ON HEALTHCARE Confidence in Obama and Democrats down since June; trust highest in doctors and hospitals by Frank Newport Americans remain more confident in the healthcare reform recommendations of President Obama (49%) than in the recommendations of the Democratic (37%) or Republican (32%) leaders in Congress. But these confidence levels are lower than those measured in June, suggesting that the ongoing healthcare reform debate has taken a toll on the credibility of the politicians involved.

Gallup from March 2-3 asked Americans a question first asked last June—whether they were confident or not confident in the healthcare recommendations of eight groups of potential influencers. The list of those measured includes not only Obama and the Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress, but also hospitals, doctors, pharmaceutical companies, health insurance companies, and university professors and researchers who study healthcare policy. As was the case nine months ago, Americans express the most widespread confidence in doctors, hospitals, and university professors and researchers. Americans are least likely to have confidence in health insurance companies and pharmaceutical companies— although these two institutions have only marginally lower confidence ratings than do Republicans in Congress.

In addition to Americans’ loss of confidence in the healthcare recommendations of Obama and Democrats in Congress (and a marginal drop in their confidence in Republicans in Congress), Americans’ confidence in pharmaceutical and health insurance companies also fell—by 10 and 9 points, respectively. Not every group has lost ground, however. Americans’ trust in doctors and hospitals has increased slightly since June, while their

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trust in “university professors and researchers who study healthcare policy” has stayed roughly the same. Partisan Differences It is no surprise to find that confidence in the political entities tested—Obama, Democratic leaders, and Republican leaders—is highly partisan. Of the three, rank-and-file Democrats are most likely to be confident in Obama and congressional Democrats. Republicans are most likely to be confident in congressional Republicans.

Obama elicits higher confidence (83%) than Democrats in Congress (67%) do from rank-and-file Democrats as well as from independents (44% vs. 30%), helping explain why Obama’s overall confidence ratings are higher than the Democrats’. Republicans in Congress get a 64% confidence rating from Republicans. Independents are less positive about either party’s leaders in Congress than they are about Obama. Politics don’t appear to make much of a difference in Americans’ ratings of doctors, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and health insurance companies. All have roughly similar confidence ratings across the three partisan groups.

In contrast, university professors and researchers receive sharply more negative ratings from Republicans (43%) than from independents (61%) or in particular Democrats (76%). Implications As the debate over healthcare reform legislation enters what could be its final month, the American public’s confidence in several of the

political players who have been at the heart of the fray has eroded. President Obama’s confidence ratings have slipped to the point where about half of Americans have confidence in what he recommends, and half do not. (This confidence rating is roughly on par with Obama’s overall job approval rating at this point.) Confidence ratings for Democratic congressional leaders and, to a lesser degree, Republican leaders, have also dropped, leaving Obama with the highest credibility of these three political groups. Americans remain highly confident in the healthcare reform recommendations of doctors, hospitals, and healthcare researchers—and these confidence levels have stayed the same or increased slightly since June. Both doctors and hospitals, of course, have major financial stakes in the outcome of any healthcare reform legislation that is passed. This doesn’t seem to affect Americans’ trust in them. On the other hand, two other entities with financial interests in the reform process—healthcare insurers and pharmaceutical companies—have quite low credibility with the public. It may be that the latter two organizations have been more overt in their lobbying and/or that Americans’ typical dealings with these organizations have more negative overtones than their dealings with doctors and hospitals. All in all, it appears that Obama remains the most influential political entity in terms of healthcare reform, albeit at a time when neither he nor congressional leaders of either party can claim more than a 50% credibility level on this topic. At the same time, if the country’s doctors or hospital administrators were to take a more public role in the debate, it appears that Americans would be quite willing to listen to their views.

protection to abortion—asks Americans to say whether they believe abortion should be legal “under any circumstances,” legal “only under certain circumstances, or “illegal in all circumstances.” In the broadest terms, the largest segments of Republicans and Democrats have consistently preferred the middle “legal only under certain circumstances” abortion position. What’s changed since 1975 is that the percentage of Republicans favoring the “illegal in all circumstances” position has grown and the percentage favoring the “legal under any circumstances” position has decreased. The reverse pattern is seen among Democrats.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 992 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 2-3, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 08, 2010 REPUBLICANS’, DEMOCRATS’ ABORTION VIEWS GROW MORE POLARIZED Republicans have grown more conservative on abortion since 1975; Democrats, more liberal by Lydia Saad With congressional passage of healthcare reform potentially hinging on a battle over abortion funding, Gallup finds that Americans’ views on the extent to which abortion should be legal in 2009 were nearly identical to their outlook in 1975—though support has fluctuated somewhat over time. However, the underlying trend by party shows that Republicans’ and Democrats’ views on the contentious issue have become increasingly polarized. Gallup’s long-term abortion question—instituted two years after the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade case gave sweeping constitutional

Among independents, the overall outline of views has been more stable. While most take the middle position, independents favoring the availability of legal abortion under any circumstances have consistently outnumbered those who favor keeping it illegal in all circumstances (albeit by a dwindling margin in recent years). Overall Views on Abortion Return to Base-Year Attitudes Among all Americans, the dominant view over the past 3 ½ decades has been the moderate “legal only under certain circumstances”

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In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 09, 2010 DEMOCRATS HOLD SLIGHT ADVANTAGE IN 2010 ELECTION PREFERENCES Republicans are significantly more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting position. Several changes occurred during the 1980s and 1990s in the balance of preferences for the two extreme views—always legal vs. always illegal—but in 2009, attitudes were back to their original 1975 levels.

by Frank Newport Democrats lead Republicans by a slight 47% to 44% margin when registered voters are asked which party’s congressional candidate they would support in their district “if the elections for Congress were being held today.”At the same time, Gallup’s inaugural weekly tracking update on the 2010 elections shows Republicans with a distinct advantage over Democrats in terms of enthusiasm about voting this year.

Bottom Line Among all Americans, public opinion on abortion appears to have been fairly stable since 1975, with modest changes in the percentages of Americans taking either of the two most extreme positions. This overall stability in views obscures a transformation that has taken place in the ways the two major parties approach the issue. Whereas Republicans and Democrats had similar outlooks on abortion in the 1970s and 1980s, that started changing in 1990; and by 2009, more Republicans believed abortion should be illegal than broadly legal (by a 21-point margin), while the reverse was true among Democrats (by 19 points). This is the first of a three-part series reviewing long-term changes in Americans’ abortion views. Parts 2 and 3 will review trends by gender, age, age cohorts (in which Gallup follows each age group in the trend data as its members age, beginning in 1975), and other population subgroups. Survey Methods The trends reported here are based on annual averages of Gallup’s abortion surveys, from 1975 through 2009. All individual surveys are based on interviews with a random sample of approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older. For annual results based on the total sample of national adults one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results based on subgroups can have higher margins of error depending on sample size.

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The relative closeness of the two parties on the “generic ballot” measure mirrors results found in separate stand-alone polls Gallup has conducted since October of last year. These results are based on registered voters. Closer to the 2010 fall elections, Gallup will base its generic ballot results on voters deemed most likely to vote. Republicans generally are more likely to vote in midterm elections than are Democrats, usually giving the former an advantage among likely voters. The current results, based on Gallup interviews with 1,585 registered voters conducted during the week of March 1-7, are the first installment of midterm election tracking updates, which Gallup will provide on a weekly basis between now and Election Day next November. Weekly results on the basic ballot and voting enthusiasm measures—plus partisan differences on both of these—will be released on Gallup.com each Tuesday. Strong Partisan Differences Both Republicans and Democrats show strong loyalty to their parties’ candidates, with 92% of Democrats saying they will vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, and 95% of Republicans saying they will vote for the Republican candidate. Independents tilt toward the Republican candidate, although one out of six independents has no preference at this point. The tilt toward the Democratic

candidate in the overall results is owing to Democrats’ outnumbering Republicans nationwide among registered voters.

Enthusiasm About Voting Gallup this week introduces a new measure of enthusiasm about voting, based on voters’ responses when asked if they are enthusiastic or not enthusiastic “about voting in this year’s congressional elections,” with a follow-up among those who are enthusiastic that asks whether they are “very” enthusiastic or “somewhat” enthusiastic. Approximately one-third of registered voters claim to be “very” enthusiastic about voting at this point, while almost 4 out of 10 are not enthusiastic. There are significant differences in enthusiasm by party, with an 18-point “very enthusiastic” gap between Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on the one hand, and Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents on the other.

Gallup will update the enthusiasm about voting measure each week, providing a continuing measure of any shifts in the relative enthusiasm advantage the Republicans now enjoy as the election nears and campaigning intensifies. Bottom Line Gallup’s inaugural weekly tracking update on Americans’ voting intentions for this fall’s important midterm congressional elections shows a narrow race, with Democrats holding a slight advantage among registered voters. Because Republicans generally enjoy higher turnout than Democrats, the closeness of the race among registered voters could mean that Republicans would be at parity or holding a slight advantage if actual voting were to take place now. Since 1950, when Gallup began using a “likely voter” model in congressional election estimates, the average Republican gain in moving from registered voters to likely voters in the final pre-election poll has been four points (because Democrats, on average, do not lose with the switch from registered voters to likely voters, the overall change in the Republican-Democratic gap has also averaged four points). Republican gains have ranged from no change to 11 points on the Republican share of the vote, and as much as an 11point gain in the gap. In only one election have Democrats gained after applying the likely voter model. The potential impact of turnout and motivation come November is underscored by the finding that Republicans hold a significant enthusiasm advantage over Democrats at this juncture. Survey Methods

A similar enthusiasm gap was evident in a February Gallup update of a slightly different enthusiasm question. The February results showed that 55% of Republicans and Republican leaners were more enthusiastic than usual about voting, contrasted with 41% of Democrats and Democratic leaners. One potential problem for Democrats is the lower enthusiasm about voting among young Americans. Twenty percent of registered voters aged 18 to 29 say they are very enthusiastic about voting this November. That compares with 31% to 39% of older age groups who are very enthusiastic. Younger Americans are decidedly more Democratic than the national average. Thus, their apparent lack of motivation to vote— if it continues until Election Day—could deprive Democrats of the full benefit they could in theory derive if all 18- to 29-year-olds were to vote.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,585 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 1-7, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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March 09, 2010 IN U.S., 45% FAVOR, 48% OPPOSE OBAMA HEALTHCARE PLAN Growing sentiment among opponents that bill would raise costs, not address real problems

sured and slightly fewer cited a moral obligation to provide health insurance.

by Jeffrey M. Jones As President Obama begins a final push on healthcare reform, slightly more Americans say they would advise their member of Congress to vote against rather than for a healthcare reform bill similar to the one the president has proposed.

These results, based on a new Gallup poll conducted March 4-7, confirm the generally divided nature of public opinion on healthcare legislation that Gallup has found in recent months. The high point in public support was 51% in October. President Obama has called for a final up-or-down vote on healthcare legislation, which has dominated the domestic agenda for much of his presidency. Most of the Republican leadership in Congress would prefer that Congress begin work on a new bill rather than try to pass Obama’s proposal, which is based largely on a bill the Senate passed last year with no Republican support. The poll finds that Americans who oppose passing a healthcare bill like the one Obama has proposed do so more because they disagree with that specific approach, rather than the efforts to reform healthcare more generally. Sixty-two percent of Americans who oppose the bill would prefer that Congress start over on new legislation, while 37% say Congress should not work on healthcare legislation at this time.

There has been greater change in opponents’ stated reasons for wanting to defeat the president’s proposed healthcare legislation. Now, 20% of opponents say it will raise insurance costs, up from 9% in September. Nineteen percent currently believe the legislation will not address the real problems in the system, up from 10% in September. Fewer Americans today than last fall cite a lack of information about the details of the legislation or cite general concerns about “big government.”

Reasons Behind Support or Opposition The poll sought to assess why Americans support or oppose healthcare legislation similar to President Obama’s by asking them to say in their own words why they hold the position they do. Supporters of healthcare legislation commonly cite a moral imperative as a reason for their support. The most frequent specific response—mentioned by 29% of supporters—is that people need health insurance and there are too many without it. Another 12% specifically cite a moral obligation to provide it. An additional 4% say it would help senior citizens and 3% say it would help the poor. Beyond moral concerns, 18% of supporters say more generally that the healthcare system is broken and in need of repair. About one in five cite cost or affordability, including 12% who say costs are out of control and 10% who believe the legislation would make healthcare more affordable. These views have not changed greatly since September, when Gallup last asked Americans to say why they supported healthcare legislation. At that time, slightly more said there were too many unin-

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Despite the drop in the percentage mentioning big government specifically, concerns about expanding government power are a

common theme in opponents’ responses. The cost of the legislation is another prominent theme. Two specific flash points concerning the reform efforts—that Democrats are rushing the legislation through the process and that federal funds would be used to pay for abortions—are each mentioned by a relatively small percentage of opponents in the poll. Bottom Line The president and Democratic leaders in Congress are trying to pass healthcare legislation in the coming weeks, and if they succeed, they will likely do so by a slim margin in the House and possibly the Senate. In some ways, this corresponds to Americans’ division over the legislation, though Gallup currently finds slightly more Americans wanting their member of Congress to vote against rather than for a reform bill similar to the one Obama has proposed. Over time, healthcare reform opponents have increasingly come to doubt whether the legislation Congress is considering will control costs and really fix the problems that plague the healthcare system. Supporters are more hopeful that it will make insurance more affordable, but much of their support rides on their belief that all Americans should have insurance. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the 436 Americans who would advise their member of Congress to vote for a healthcare reform bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the 513 Americans who would advise their member of Congress to vote against a healthcare reform bill similar to the one proposed by President Obama, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup classifies respondents as “employed” if they are employed full time or are employed part time but do not want to work full time. Respondents are considered “underemployed” if they are employed part time but want to work full time or are unemployed. Gallup categorizes Americans as thriving, struggling, or suffering according to how they rate their present and future lives on a ladder scale, with steps numbered from 0 to 10, based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. Majorities of the unemployed (57%) and those who work part time but want to work full time (52%) are struggling, while majorities of respondents working at their desired capacity are thriving. This finding illustrates that in terms of wellbeing, Americans working part time but wanting full-time employment are more similar to the unemployed than the employed.

Worry and Stress Pervasive Among Underemployed March 09, 2010 THE EMOTIONAL COST OF UNDEREMPLOYMENT Majority of underemployed Americans are “struggling” by Jenny Marlar Underemployed Americans are significantly more likely to be “struggling” (54%) than employed Americans (38%), according to the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Those who are underemployed are also less likely to be “thriving,” than those who are employed—42% versus 61%. These results are based on January and February interviews with approximately 40,000 adults in the U.S. workforce, age 18 and older.

In addition to a more pessimistic outlook on their present and future lives, underemployed respondents are also more likely than the employed to report experiencing negative emotions. Nearly half (46%) of underemployed Americans said they experienced worry the day before the survey, compared with 29% of the employed who said the same. The underemployed are also more likely than the employed to report experiencing sadness, stress, and anger. Underemployed Americans are also almost twice as likely to have been told by a doctor or nurse that they suffer from depression (21% versus 12% employed Americans). Underemployment does not appear to be taking as much a toll on the experience of positive emotions as it does on negative emotions. A significant majority of all respondents—regardless of

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opportunities for social time may buffer the underemployed from some of the ill effects of underemployment. What is not known is the amount of time that the employed spend interacting with business colleagues and how much of that interaction could be social and thus have the same benefits as interaction with friends and family.

The Bottom Line

employment status—reported positive emotions during the previous day. Underemployed individuals are slightly less likely than employed respondents to experience happiness and enjoyment, with nearly six percentage point differences in terms of happiness and enjoyment.

With approximately 20% of Americans currently underemployed, the daily negativity this group experiences could have an impact on their lives now and in the future. Gallup has previously reported that underemployed Americans report spending substantially less than the employed and that the majority of the underemployed are not hopeful about finding a job, trends that are sure to contribute to daily worry, sadness, stress, and anger. Gallup data also illustrate that, at least in terms of evaluative wellbeing, those working part time but wanting to work full time are more similar to those who are unemployed than they are to those who are fully employed. This finding highlights the need to move beyond traditional metrics such as unemployment and to adopt measures such as underemployment, which are more inclusive of the struggles Americans face each day. Still, although unemployment might isolate some individuals from social networks, the underemployed are more likely than the employed to spend at least six hours of time per day with family and friends, perhaps combating some of the stressors of underemployment. Gallup tracks the U.S. workforce daily and will continue to monitor the wellbeing of the more than 30 million underemployed Americans. Survey Methods

A Silver Lining One potentially favorable difference to emerge from the data is that the underemployed report spending more social time per day with family and friends than the employed. Fifty-one percent of the underemployed reported spending at least six hours socializing with family and friends on the day before the survey, compared with 43% of the employed who said the same. Previous Gallup research reveals that social time reduces stress and worry and increases the odds of having a good day. Increased

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Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 39,255 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Feb. 28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 10, 2010 FEWER AMERICANS SET ON BUYING FOREIGN CARS Older consumers remain strongest supporters of U.S. car brands

American brands—29% versus 19%. By contrast, a surge in “buy American” sentiment seen among middle-aged adults a year ago has tapered off somewhat in the latest poll.

by Lydia Saad In their car purchasing decisions, Americans are now less likely to show exclusive loyalty to foreign brands than they were in the recent past. Six percent in a March 4-7 Gallup survey say they would consider only foreign makes when buying a car, compared with 12% in February 2009 and 15% in December 2008. Meanwhile, the percentage who would consider only American cars has leveled off after showing gains from 2008 to 2009.

Despite these changes, older adults remain the most loyal to U.S. car companies, with 45% saying they would consider only American brands, vs. 32% of middle-aged adults and 29% of younger adults.

Gallup first asked Americans about their car-buying preferences as the government was considering a bailout of the struggling U.S. automakers in late 2008, and in its February 2009 update found a slight bump in the percentage of Americans who would consider American cars exclusively. The latest update shows no further momentum in Americans’ commitment to domestic cars, but as Japanese automaker Toyota struggles with safety issues, Gallup finds a significant drop in the percentage of Americans who would exclusively consider imports. The remainder of Americans (57%) say they would consider both foreign and domestic brands when making a car purchase. Preference for American Autos Still Skews Downscale Younger Adults Steering Toward U.S. Brands The decline in preference for foreign cars is especially pronounced among young adults, dropping from 20% to 7% since December 2008. This group, aged 18 to 34, had previously been the most likely to say they would consider only foreign brands when making an auto purchase; today, however, Gallup finds few Americans of any age group feeling that way.

Among income groups, willingness to rule out foreign car brands is highest among households earning less than $30,000 per year (46%) and lowest among those earning at least $75,000 (24%). However, over the past 15 months, most of the increase in loyalty to U.S. car brands is seen among middle-income households. Among this group, willingness to purchase only American cars rose from 26% in December 2008 to 37% in March 2009, and it remains at about that level today (39%). At the same time, all income groups have become less likely to say they would consider only foreign cars.

A corollary finding is that young adults are significantly more likely today than in December 2008 to say they would consider only

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Bottom Line Although the economic downturn has been devastating to the U.S. auto industry—bringing it to the brink of collapse barely a year ago—the silver lining for Detroit is that the crisis has helped draw Americans’ attention to its cars. And because Americans like what they have seen, or because they feel more compelled to support American brands, or perhaps because of Toyota’s highly publicized safety problems, Americans are showing a greater willingness to put themselves behind the wheel of an American vehicle. This is apparent in the February market data showing new car sales at Ford, Chrysler, and General Motors up compared to a year ago. It is also evident in Gallup polling showing more Americans willing to look at an American brand for their next car purchase. Currently, 93% of Americans say they would either consider American cars along with foreign cars, or consider only American cars. That’s up from 87% in February 2009 and 82% in December 2008. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 10, 2010 U.S. SATISFACTION DROPS BELOW 20% Gains made during early part of Obama presidency are essentially gone by Jeffrey M. Jones A new Gallup poll finds a continuing decline in Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States. Now at 19%, satisfaction has reverted to the levels seen in the first few months of the Obama presidency. Satisfaction was 13% when Obama took office in January 2009 but exceeded 30% during most of the summer.

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Americans’ satisfaction with the direction of the country began to decline in late August, after peaking at 36% earlier that month. Since then, satisfaction levels have continued to fall, now dipping below the 20% level. Gallup has tracked Americans’ satisfaction with national conditions since 1979. Since that time, there have been three other periods of sub-20% satisfaction ratings, all during difficult economic times for the United States. These include 1979 to 1981, when the nation dealt first with an energy crisis during the latter part of the Carter presidency and high unemployment in the early part of the Reagan presidency; 1992, as the U.S. was coming out of a recession; and 2008 to early 2009, during the economic downturn and the financial crisis, including a record-low 7% reading in October 2008. Current satisfaction levels among all party groups are low, including 11% among Republicans, 17% among independents, and 29% among Democrats. The recent decline in satisfaction has come almost exclusively among Democrats. In August, 59% of Democrats said they were satisfied with national conditions—twice the level of the current poll. Independents’ satisfaction has dipped from 31% in August to 17% in March, with most of that decline observed between August and September.

Democrats’ declining enthusiasm could reflect diminished hopes about what the Obama administration and the Democratic majority in Congress can accomplish. Although the government did pass Obama’s top priority, an economic stimulus bill, last year, it has so far been unsuccessful in enacting healthcare reform. And though the stimulus package may have helped prevent the economy from getting worse than it otherwise would have, unemployment has risen during the Obama administration, and the healthcare reform efforts have slowed work on a jobs bill. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 11, 2010 AMERICANS’ GLOBAL WARMING CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DROP Multiple indicators show less concern, more feelings that global warming is exaggerated by Frank Newport Gallup’s annual update on Americans’ attitudes toward the environment shows a public that over the last two years has become less worried about the threat of global warming, less convinced that its effects are already happening, and more likely to believe that scientists themselves are uncertain about its occurrence. In response to one key question, 48% of Americans now believe that the seriousness of global warming is generally exaggerated, up from 41% in 2009 and 31% in 1997, when Gallup first asked the question.

Fewer See Global Warming as Serious Threat In similar fashion, the percentage of Americans who believe that global warming is going to affect them or their way of life in their lifetimes has dropped to 32% from a 40% high point in 2008. Twothirds of Americans say global warming will not affect them in their lifetimes.

These results are based on the annual Gallup Social Series Environment poll, conducted March 4-7 of this year. The survey results show that the reversal in Americans’ concerns about global warming that began last year has continued in 2010—in some cases reverting to the levels recorded when Gallup began tracking global warming measures more than a decade ago. For example, the percentage of Americans who now say reports of global warming are generally exaggerated is by a significant margin the highest such reading in the 13-year history of asking the question. In 1997, 31% said global warming’s effects had been exaggerated; last year, 41% said the same, and this year the number is 48%. Fewer Americans Think Effects of Global Warming Are Occurring Many global warming activists have used film and photos of melting ice caps and glaciers, and the expanding reach of deserts, to drive home their point that global warming is already having alarming effects on the earth. While these efforts may have borne fruit over much of the 2000s, during the last two years, Americans’ convictions about global warming’s effects have waned. A majority of Americans still agree that global warming is real, as 53% say the effects of the problem have already begun or will do so in a few years. That percentage is dwindling, however. The average American is now less convinced than at any time since 1997 that global warming’s effects have already begun or will begin shortly. Meanwhile, 35% say that the effects of global warming either will never happen (19%) or will not happen in their lifetimes (16%). The 19% figure is more than double the number who held this view in 1997.

The shift in these views during the past two years has been particularly striking. The percentage who said global warming would pose a serious threat increased gradually from 1997 through 2008. The trend in these responses changed course last year, with slightly fewer Americans saying global warming would have a significant effect in their lifetimes. This year, that percentage is down even more, marking a six-point drop from 2009, and roughly similar to where it was nine years ago. Americans Divided on Causes of Global Warming In a sharp turnaround from what Gallup found as recently as three years ago, Americans are now almost evenly split in their views of the cause of increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century. In 2003, 61% of Americans said such increases were due to human activities—in line with advocates of the global warming issue—while 33% said they were due to natural changes in the environment. Now, a significantly diminished 50% say temperature increases are due to human activities, and 46% say they are not. Americans Less Sure About Scientists’ Beliefs Since last fall, there have been widespread news accounts of allegations of errors in scientific reports on global warming and alleged attempts by some scientists to doctor the global warming record.

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cold temperatures of this past winter. Additionally, evidence from last year showed that the issue of global warming was becoming heavily partisan in nature, and it may be that the continuing doubts about global warming put forth by conservatives and others are having an effect. A forthcoming analysis at Gallup.com will examine shifts in global warming attitudes in recent years among various demographic and political groups. Survey Methods

These news reports may well have caused some Americans to re-evaluate the scientific consensus on global warming. Roughly half of Americans now say that “most scientists believe that global warming is occurring,” down from 65% in recent years. The dominant opposing thesis, held by 36% of Americans, is that scientists are unsure about global warming. An additional 10% say most scientists believe global warming is not occurring.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 11, 2010 AMERICANS’ LIFE EVALUATION REACHES NEW HIGH At the same time, the Gallup-Healthways Work Environment Index falls to new low by Dan Witters More Americans are “thriving” and fewer are “struggling” now than at any time since Gallup and Healthways began tracking Americans’ life evaluation in January 2008. The percentage of “suffering” Americans remains low, at 3.4%. The percentage of Americans who think most scientists believe global warming is occurring has dropped 13 points from two years ago, and is the lowest since the first time Gallup asked this question back in 1997. Implications The last two years have marked a general reversal in the trend of Americans’ attitudes about global warming. Most Gallup measures up to 2008 had shown increasing concern over global warming on the part of the average American, in line with what one might have expected given the high level of publicity on the topic. Former Vice President Al Gore had been particularly prominent in this regard, with the publication of his bestselling book, “An Inconvenient Truth,” an Academy Award-winning documentary movie focusing on his global warming awareness campaign, and Gore’s receipt of a Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. But the public opinion tide turned in 2009, when several Gallup measures showed a slight retreat in public concern about global warming. This year, the downturn is even more pronounced. Some of the shifts in Americans’ views may reflect real-world events, including the publicity surrounding allegations of scientific fraud relating to global warming evidence, and—perhaps in some parts of the country—a reflection of the record-breaking snow and

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The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index classifies Americans as either “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering,” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale based on the

Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. The high percentage of “thriving” Americans coupled with the low percentage of “suffering” Americans also drove the overall Life Evaluation Index (determined by the difference between the two) to a new high of 50.4 in February. The Life Evaluation Index is one of six sub-indexes that comprise the overall Well-Being Index.

phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Work Environment Index Drops to a New Low While life evaluation is improving and the remaining Wellbeing subindexes show little change, the Work Environment Index dropped to a new low in February this year. The Work Environment Index measures job satisfaction, the ability to use one’s strengths at work, trust and openness in the workplace, and how one’s supervisor treats him or her. The Work Environment score of 48.0 this February compares negatively with the 48.7 in February last year and the 51.6 in February 2008, reflecting a long-term downward trend in American workers’ perceptions of their places of employment since tracking began in 2008.

The decline in the Work Environment Index is driven primarily by reduced job satisfaction, which has dropped more than two percentage points from 89.4% in February 2008 to 87.3% in February 2010.

March 11, 2010 CONSERVATIVES’ DOUBTS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING GROW Most subgroups show decline in global warming concern by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are less likely now (50%) than they were two years ago (61%) to believe the effects of global warming are already occurring. This shift is most evident among political conservatives, 30% of whom believe the effects are already happening, down from 50% two years ago. There has been essentially no change in liberals’ views over this time.

And though wide ideological differences remain, both liberals and conservatives are more likely now than they were in 2008 to believe the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated in the news.

Bottom Line Americans’ wellbeing is a mix of good and bad news in February. The American spirit shows resiliency as respondents’ attitudes regarding their life today and optimism for tomorrow continues to reach new heights. Inside of the workplace, however, American workers are expressing greater dissatisfaction compared with one and two years ago. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 350,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2008 and Jan. 2-Dec. 29, 2009 and 28,226 adults surveyed Feb. 1-Feb. 28, 2010. For annual results based on the stated total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.2 percentage points. For monthly results based on the stated total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

Gallup has documented a sharp drop in concerns about global warming on a variety of measures over the past two years. With only a few exceptions—most notably ideology and age—the decline in concern is evident among all key demographic and attitudinal subgroups. The following summarizes changes in views of global warming among key groups. Political Party Though ideology and political party are related, ideological and partisan groups do not show the same patterns of change in their views

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that global warming’s effects have begun to happen. Whereas conservatives show a great deal of change in their attitudes and liberals almost none, all three party groups show similar declines over the past two years, between 6 and 10 percentage points.

The net effect is that Democrats (66%) are now twice as likely as Republicans (31%) to believe the effects of global warming are already underway. Independents’ views (56%) are closer to Democrats’ than to Republicans’. There are similarly large party differences on whether the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated. Two-thirds of Republicans, compared with 25% of Democrats, hold this view. All three groups are more likely now than they were in 2008 to believe the news media exaggerate the seriousness of the issue, including a sharp 19-point increase among independents. As a result, independents’ views on this matter are now closer to Republicans’ than to Democrats’.

All age groups are more likely now than they were a few years ago to say global warming’s seriousness is exaggerated, but the gain is proportionately less among young adults.

Gender Women have typically expressed greater concern than men about the environment. While both groups express less concern now than they did in 2008, the decline has been somewhat greater among men. Thus, the gender gap on both measures has expanded, from 6 points to 14 points on whether the effects of global warming are occurring, and from 14 points to 17 points on whether the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated.

Age In addition to political liberals, young adults are the other major subgroup that shows no decline in the belief that global warming is already affecting the environment. Meanwhile, there have been double-digit declines over the past two years among Americans aged 30 and older in the belief that global warming’s effects have already begun. Knowledge About Global Warming The 26% of Americans who say they understand the issue of global warming “very well” are significantly less likely now than they were in 2008 to believe the effects of global warming are occurring today. Views among those who say they do not understand the issue well (18% of Americans) are similar now to what they were two years ago. Since 2008, more conservatives have said they understand the global warming issue very well while the percentage of liberals and moderates who claim a high level of knowledge about it has stayed relatively flat. The greater professed understanding among conservatives may account for the decline in the percentage of the

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March 12, 2010 GENERATIONAL DIFFERENCES ON ABORTION NARROW Support for making abortion broadly illegal growing fastest among young adults by Lydia Saad

highly knowledgeable who claim the effects of global warming are occurring. All three knowledge groups show similarly large increases in the belief that global warming’s seriousness is exaggerated.

Gallup analysis of U.S. public opinion trends on abortion shows that generational differences in support for broadly legal abortion have diminished over the past decade. In the mid-1970s, when Gallup started polling on the issue, adults aged 18 to 29 and 30 to 49 were the most supportive of legal abortion under any circumstances, and those 65 and older the least, with 50- to 64-year-olds falling in between. That pattern continued through the late 1990s. Since 2000, however, all age groups with the exception of seniors have shown similar levels of support for broadly legal abortion.

Bottom Line There has been a significant shift in Americans’ views on global warming in the past two years to a position of lessened concern compared with two years ago. Global warming attitudes have become more politically divided over time, and while the shifts toward diminished worry are evident among all party groups, ideological liberals’ views have been more stable than conservatives’ or moderates’ views. Given that conservatives outnumber liberals in the U.S. population by roughly 2 to 1, any significant change in the former group’s attitudes toward global warming is enough to move the needle on global warming attitudes among all Americans. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The convergence of younger adults’ (aged 18 to 49) and middleaged adults’ (aged 50 to 64) views occurred because support for legal abortion in all situations dipped among the youngest two age categories and increased slightly among middle-aged adults between the late 1990s and the early 2000s. Gallup’s long-term abortion question—instituted two years after the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling gave sweeping constitutional protection to abortion—asks Americans to say whether they believe abortion should be “legal under any circumstances,” “legal only under certain circumstances,” or “illegal in all circumstances.” The current analysis looks at the trends on the basis of six segmented time periods between 1975 and 2009, creating expanded sample sizes for stability in subgroup analysis. Seniors Remain Least Likely to Favor Legal Abortion In the most recent period, from 2005 to 2009, the majority of all age groups favored the middle “legal only under certain circumstances” position. However, there was some differentiation in support for the more liberal abortion view, as roughly a quarter of adults aged 18 to 29, 30 to 49, and 50 to 64—versus 16% of seniors—believed abortion should be legal under any circumstances. At the same time, young adults were slightly more likely than all other age groups, including seniors, to say abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. Americans Aged 18 to 29 Trending More Anti-Abortion The analysis above focused on public support for the “legal under any circumstances” option in Gallup’s abortion question. There is a

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somewhat different pattern in the trends by age for those choosing the “illegal in all circumstances” position. Two important changes are apparent. One is a significant drop in the percentage of seniors saying all abortions should be illegal. This fell from 32% in the earliest years of the trend to 16% in the first half of the 1990s, but has since rebounded somewhat to 21%. This long-term 11-point decline among seniors compares with a 9point increase—from 14% to 23%—in support for the “illegal in all circumstances” position among 18- to 29-year-olds since the early 1990s. As a result, 18- to 29-year-olds are now roughly tied with seniors as the most likely of all age groups to hold this position on abortion— although all four groups are fairly close in their views. This is a sharp change from the late 1970s, when seniors were substantially more likely than younger age groups to want abortion to be illegal.

since then. These shifts are consistent with Gallup’s trend in overall support for abortion. American adults who either turned 18 after 1975 or were born after that year now range in age from 18 to 51. Their views since they came of age have tracked very closely with those in the 1975 18 to 29 age cohort (aged 52 to 63 in 2009).

Unlike the pattern seen with the basic age trends, support for abortion by age cohort has varied consistently by age over time. The youngest adults in 1975 were then the most supportive of legal abortion under any circumstances and remain the most supportive today (tied with adults who came of age since 1975). Accordingly, middleaged and older adults in 1975 were incrementally less supportive of abortion at that time, and subsequently maintained those positions. Bottom Line

1975 Age Cohorts Apart from the trends in how Americans of various age groups have viewed abortion since 1975, a separate question is whether the positions held by members of each age group in 1975 remained steady or changed as they aged. For instance, did people who were 18 to 29 years old in 1975 become more liberal or more conservative on the issue as they reached their 30s, 40s, and 50s? Or more generally, do all age groups go through a predictable transformation in their beliefs about the legality of abortion as they move through various stages of life? Gallup tracked each age group through 2009 with a “cohort” analysis, using a base year of 1975. The trend lines are shortened for adults in Cohorts 3 and 4 (aged 50 and older in 1975), as their numbers dwindled in Gallup’s samples over time. The analysis finds no steady increase or decrease in support for abortion among any of the various age cohorts over the last 35 years. Rather, all age groups became more supportive of legal abortion under any circumstances in the early 1990s, and all subsequently shed some of that support in the late 1990s, with further decline seen 94

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Given the abortion issue’s status as a contentious social issue, the subject might be expected to spark different reactions from younger versus older Americans the way gay rights certainly does. That was somewhat true in the first few years after the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, when older adults were decidedly more conservative than younger adults in their preferences about legality. However, in recent years, the generational distinctions have blurred. Support for abortion that is “legal under any circumstances” is similar among age groups ranging from 18 to 64; only seniors show significantly less support for this. At the same time, young adults are now roughly tied with seniors as being the most likely age group to favor having abortion “illegal in all circumstances.” Gallup’s cohort analysis suggests that attitudes toward abortion grow neither more liberal nor more conservative with age, per se. While the views of each cohort have changed since 1975, those fluctuations in support for legal abortion have been consistent with broader cultural shifts on the issue. Survey Methods The trends reported here are based on annual averages of Gallup’s abortion surveys, from 1975 through 2009. All individual surveys are based on interviews with a random sample of approximately

1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older. For annual results based on the total sample of national adults one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results based on subgroups can have higher margins of error depending on sample size. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

other than Iraq or the economy in general has led Americans’ list of national concerns. More broadly, the economy’s struggles are apparent, as 66% of Americans mention some economic issue as the nation’s most important problem. At least half of Americans have done so each month since March 2008. In addition to asking about current problems facing the country, the March 4-7 poll also asked Americans to say what they think will be the most important problem facing the United States in 25 years. The federal budget deficit is mentioned most often in this regard, by 14% of Americans, slightly more than say the economy in general (11%) and the environment (11%).

March 12, 2010 AMERICANS SAY JOBS TOP PROBLEM NOW, DEFICIT IN FUTURE Economy, healthcare remain prominent concerns by Jeffrey M. Jones Unemployment now stands alone as the top issue in Gallup’s latest update on the most important problem facing the country. Thirty-one percent of Americans mention jobs or unemployment, significantly more than say the economy in general (24%), healthcare (20%), or dissatisfaction with government (10%).

This is the first time the federal budget deficit has topped the list of future problems, and indeed the first time it has exceeded 5% mentions. That likely reflects public concern over increased federal spending and expanding budget deficits. Typically, the environment and the economy figure prominently when Americans predict what the nation’s top problem will be 25 years from now. One of those two issues has been the most commonly mentioned in 7 of the 10 years Gallup has asked this question. Social Security topped the list in 2005 and 2006.

This month, unemployment overtook general mentions of the economy, as the percentage naming unemployment held steady at 31% while the mentions of the economy dipped from 31% to 24%. Unemployment, the economy, and healthcare have been the top three cited problems each month since last May.

Bottom Line

The economy had ranked No. 1 in Gallup’s monthly most important problem measure since February 2008, when it overtook the Iraq war. The war in Iraq had been the top issue (or tied for the top) each month since April 2004. Thus, unemployment’s position at the top of the list marks the first time in six years that something

The job market has overtaken the economy as the nation’s most pressing problem in Americans’ minds. Americans last ranked unemployment as the most important problem during the Reagan administration. Since many economists expect unemployment to remain high for much of this year, it would seem unlikely that the public’s concern about the issue will diminish anytime soon. President Obama has said a jobs bill is his top legislative priority— and though the push for resolution on healthcare reform has slowed progress, the Senate this week passed such legislation, with a House bill in the works. The irony, however, is that in an attempt to address

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Americans’ current most important problem, the legislation will add to the federal budget deficit—Americans’ prediction of the top problem for the United States in 25 years. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Public optimism about the environmental outlook surged among independents and Democrats in surveys bracketing the shift in presidential administrations from George W. Bush’s to Obama’s. Republicans’ views did not change.

March 15, 2010 AMERICANS MORE UPBEAT ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Fewer are worried about the environment by Lydia Saad Americans grew more content over the past year with the overall quality of the environment in the country. Their “excellent” or “good” ratings now total 46%, up from 39% in March 2009. Despite these shifts, the majority (53%) continue to rate current environmental conditions as only fair or poor.

This trend comes from Gallup’s annual Social Series Environment survey, with the latest installment conducted March 4-7, 2010. The current ratings are the most positive Gallup has measured since 2002. By contrast, Gallup finds no meaningful change in Americans’ responses to a separate question asking whether environmental conditions are getting better or getting worse. Forty-one percent believe conditions are improving, the same as last year. Roughly half (48%) now say they are getting worse, similar to the 51% saying this a year ago. The public’s environmental outlook in the last two surveys— dating to March 2009, just after the inauguration of Barack Obama as president—is far more optimistic than what Gallup found in the decade prior to his taking office.

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Positive ratings of the current quality of the environment have increased by five to eight points compared to a year ago among all three party groups. Republicans’ perceptions of environmental quality had declined between 2008 and 2009 before rising slightly this year. Democrats’ views were flat between 2008 and 2009, while the views of independents have grown slightly more positive each year.

With Contentment Up, Worry Is Down With more Americans today than in 2008 believing the environment is in good shape and improving, it is not surprising to find a decline over the same period in the percentage highly worried about the environment. Currently, Americans are split roughly into thirds, according to the degree to which they worry about environmental quality: 34% say they worry a great deal, 34% worry a fair amount, and 31% worry only a little or not at all. However, the highly worried group is down from 40% in 2008, and from a high of 43% in 2007.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Overall, Democrats worry most about the environment, and Republicans least. Independents show the greatest decline in worry since 2008 (down nine points, from 41% to 32%). This compares with three- and four-point drops among Republicans and Democrats, respectively.

March 16, 2010 IN U.S., MANY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES AT 20-YEARLOW CONCERN Worry about all eight measures tested is down from last year by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are less worried about each of eight specific environmental problems than they were a year ago, and on all but global warming and maintenance of the nation’s fresh water supply, concern is the lowest Gallup has measured. Americans worry most about drinking-water pollution and least about global warming.

The percentage of Americans forecasting that the environment will be the most important problem facing the country in future decades has also dipped slightly this year—from 14% in 2007 and 2008 to 11% today. It remains higher than in the several years prior to 2007. At no time in the past decade have more than a small percentage of Americans cited the environment as the most important problem facing the country today.

Bottom Line Americans are more upbeat about environmental conditions in the U.S. today than they were two years ago. This has happened in two stages. The first was seen a year ago, when increased percentages of Democrats and independents thought the environment was getting better. This year, Gallup finds gains in positive evaluations of current environmental conditions among all three party groups. Perhaps as a result of both shifts, public worry about the environment is lower today than it was two years ago. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010.

Over time, Americans’ concerns about environmental problems have generally declined. After this year’s drop, for six of the eight items, the percentage who worry “a great deal” is at the lowest point Gallup has measured, which in some cases dates to 1989. The two exceptions are global warming (low point was 24% in 1997) and maintenance of the nation’s fresh water supply for household needs (35% in 2001). One major reason Americans may be less worried about environmental problems is that they perceive environmental conditions in the United States to be improving. The decline in worry over time has been rather dramatic for some of these threats. For example, in 1989, 72% of Americans said they worried a great deal about pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs. Worry about this environmental issue averaged 62% in the 1990s, 54% in the 2000s, and is 46% today. Similarly, there has been a 25-point drop since 1989 in the percentage worried a great deal about air pollution, and an equal drop in worry about contamination of soil and water by toxic waste. Not all environmental problems show the same general downward trend over time. For example, concerns about global warming and loss of tropical rain forests were higher in 2000 than they had

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Survey Methods been prior to that. Concerns about both issues subsequently eased, before rising again until 2007. Now concerns are declining once again, including a sharp nine-point drop this year in concern about rain forests.

Gallup earlier reported declines in concern about global warming on several of its other long-term-trend questions. Water Pollution Usually of Greatest Concern Typically, Americans express greater concern about threats to water safety and quality than about other environmental issues. This year, the top four concerns all deal with water. Pollution of drinking water again is the top concern, and has been each year it has been included in the list of environmental problems. The year it was not (1989), pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs was the top concern. Bottom Line Americans are now less worried about a series of environmental problems than at any time in the past 20 years. That could be due in part to Americans’ belief that environmental conditions in the U.S. are improving. It also may reflect greater public concern about economic issues, which is usually associated with a drop in environmental concern. And greater action on environmental issues at the federal, state, and local levels may also contribute to a decline in Americans’ environmental worry.

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Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 17, 2010 OBAMA NOT MEETING AMERICANS’ LOFTY EXPECTATIONS ON ISSUES Slight majority still rates him positively for protecting the environment by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ ratings of the job President Barack Obama is doing in three key areas are much less positive than their expectations were for him shortly after he took office. Americans give Obama the best review for protecting the environment and the worst for making America prosperous. The declines are understandable, given the high expectations for Obama when he took office and the erosion in his overall job approval rating over the past year. Last March, he averaged 62% job approval, compared to ratings in the high 40% range today. On a proportional basis, however, the declines in his ratings on the environment, energy, and prosperity eclipse those for his overall approval rating. Gallup asked the same items about George W. Bush throughout his presidency. A comparison of Bush’s year 1 vs. year 2 ratings to Obama’s yields two important distinctions for Bush. First, expectations for how Bush would handle these issues were generally not as high at the outset of his presidency as they were for Obama. Second,

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Bush’s ratings did not decline nearly as much in his second year, probably due to the rally in public support Bush enjoyed after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks. Bush’s first- and second-year ratings were similar on the environment and the economy, though he did drop significantly on energy.

March 17, 2010 PERCENTAGE OF UNINSURED ADULTS IN U.S. REMAINS ELEVATED More Americans are getting health coverage through the government in 2010 than in 2008 by Elizabeth Mendes As President Obama and congressional Democrats make a final push this week to pass a healthcare bill, Gallup finds that more than 16% of American adults were without health coverage in January and February of this year, similar to the heightened number of uninsured recorded throughout much of 2009. This trend reflects a continuation of an increase that began as the economy worsened and layoffs accelerated in November of 2008.

Even though Americans’ ratings for Obama’s handling of these issues have dropped sharply over the past year, they are no worse than Bush’s ratings toward the end of his term. In his second term in office, from 2005 to 2008, Bush averaged 33% “good job” ratings on the environment, 27% on energy, and 39% on the economy. Obama’s current ratings are predictably much more positive among Democrats than among Republicans, with the largest difference of opinion (60 percentage points) in ratings of the job he is doing on the economy.

Bottom Line After more than a year in office, a slim majority of Americans say President Obama is doing a good job on the environment, and less than half say so about his handling of the economy and energy— marking declines from the large majorities of Americans who a year ago predicted he would do a good job. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010.

Averaging January and February of this year brings the current 2010 average number of uninsured to 16.2%, matching the 2009 average, but significantly more than in 2008. In terms of those who are insured, Gallup finds that so far in 2010 fewer are getting their health insurance through an employer and more are relying on government coverage (Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits) than in 2008. The 2010 averages for employerbased and government plans are currently similar to 2009 levels.

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While attention is now turned to vote counting and parliamentary procedures aimed at getting a healthcare bill passed through Congress, the healthcare system is already confronting a changing health insurance landscape. Survey Methods For the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide 350 days per year. All monthly samples are near 30,000 per month. For monthly results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

negative public perceptions about the economy (“only fair” or “poor” ratings of current economic conditions). Another factor could be Americans’ increased optimism about the environment. With more Americans believing the environment is improving (now 41%, up from 25% in 2007), perhaps fewer are willing to risk supporting environmental measures that might have a negative economic impact.

March 18, 2010 AMERICANS FIRM IN PRIORITIZING ECONOMY OVER ENVIRONMENT Fewer than half of Democrats now believe environmental protection the more important goal by Lydia Saad For only the second time in more than two decades and the second straight year, Americans are more likely to say economic growth should take precedence over environmental protection when the two objectives conflict (53%) than to say the reverse (38%). Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Just under half of Democrats (49%) now believe “protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth.” This is the lowest percentage of Democrats on record favoring the environment on this question, although not materially different from the 50% recorded in 2009. At 22%, the percentage of Republicans favoring the environment also marks a new low. The negative U.S. economic climate since 2008 is no doubt a significant factor behind Americans’ heightened willingness to say environmental concerns should take a back seat to economic growth. Since 2001, shifts in the percentages of Americans favoring the economy over the environment have mostly conformed with the trend in

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March 18, 2010 OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING LOWEST YET, CONGRESS’ DECLINES Slightly more disapprove than approve of Obama by Jeffrey M. Jones President Barack Obama’s job approval is the worst of his presidency to date, with 46% of Americans approving and 48% disapproving of the job he is doing as president in the latest Gallup Daily three-day average.

Results for congressional job approval are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Obama’s approval rating has hovered around 50% since November, but in the last two days has declined to the point that slightly more Americans now disapprove than approve of his performance in office. The new low ratings come during a week in which the White House and Democratic congressional leaders are working to convince wavering House Democrats to support healthcare reform, which they hope to pass using a series of parliamentary maneuvers in the House of Representatives and Senate. Americans hold Congress in far less esteem than they do the president—16% approve and 80% disapprove of the job Congress is doing, according to the latest update from a March 4-7 Gallup poll. That is just two points off the record-low 14% Gallup measured in July 2008. Gallup has been measuring congressional approval since 1974.

March 19, 2010 AMERICANS EXPECT HEALTH BILL TO MAINLY HELP POOR, UNINSURED Americans believe most groups will be worse off by Frank Newport The majority of Americans believe the healthcare bill Congress is currently considering will benefit those who lack health insurance and lower-income families. Americans tend to see more negative than positive effects on most other groups in society.

Congress’ image improved during the early part of the Obama administration, peaking at 39% in March 2009. But by last month its ratings were back to where they were before Obama took office, mainly due to a loss in support from Democratic identifiers. Bottom Line Public support for President Obama and Congress—both of which were running near their low points prior to the beginning of this month—continues to slip. That is an ominous sign heading into this year’s midterm elections. As of now, Gallup’s tracking of congressional election preferences suggests a close House race, and a much worse performance for Democrats than in the 2006 election that restored the party to majority status in Congress. Survey Methods Results for Obama job approval are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,478 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 15-17, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

The findings that more Americans believe the new legislation will make things worse rather than better for the U.S. as a whole, as well as for them personally, are consistent with previous Gallup polls showing a slight negative tilt when Americans are asked if they support the new plan. Some experts have argued that the medical establishment will benefit from the new legislation because millions of Americans will suddenly gain health insurance and therefore become healthcare consumers. Americans disagree, perhaps related to President Obama’s and congressional Democrats’ recent attacks on the insurance industry. By significant margins, Americans perceive that health insurance companies, doctors, and hospitals will be worse off rather than better off if the new bill becomes law. Gallup has also found that support for a new healthcare bill is highly partisan at the rank-and-file level, with Democrats supporting it and Republicans opposing it. The new data reinforce this partisan division in a slightly different way. Republicans are more

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negative than Democrats about the future impact of the new legislation on every group tested.

Obama’s support for nuclear power apparently hasn’t done much to change how Democrats view the issue, as a slim majority of 51% favor it, virtually unchanged from last year. Most of the increased support for nuclear energy over the past three years has come among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, who have consistently been more likely than Democrats and Democratic leaners to favor the use of nuclear energy.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,009 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 17, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

Bottom Line Last year, Gallup documented a significant increase in support for nuclear power, and that upward trend has continued this year. Although President Obama has announced his support for increased use of nuclear power, Republicans remain significantly more supportive than Democrats. Survey Methods

March 22, 2010 U.S. SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR POWER CLIMBS TO NEW HIGH OF 62% Twenty-eight percent strongly favor its use by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ support for the use of nuclear power has inched up to 62%, establishing a new high. A majority of Americans have typically favored using nuclear power to provide electricity for the United States since Gallup began asking about this topic in 1994. Support has edged up in the last two years, eclipsing 60% this year for the first time. In addition, 28% of Americans now say they “strongly favor” nuclear power, also the highest Gallup has measured since the question was first asked in 1994. This year’s results, from a March 4-7 Gallup poll, came after President Obama announced federal government loan guarantees to build the first nuclear power plants in the United States in three decades.

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Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 23, 2010 BY SLIM MARGIN, AMERICANS SUPPORT HEALTHCARE BILL’S PASSAGE Independents evenly split in their basic reactions, but more are “angry” than “enthusiastic” by Lydia Saad Nearly half of Americans give a thumbs-up to Congress’ passage of a healthcare reform bill last weekend, with 49% calling it “a good thing.” Republicans and Democrats have polar opposite reactions, with independents evenly split.

The findings, from a March 22 USA Today/Gallup poll conducted one day after the bill received a majority of votes in the U.S. House of Representatives, represent immediate reactions to the vote. Americans’ emotional responses to the bill’s passage are more positive than negative—with 50% enthusiastic or pleased versus 42% angry or disappointed—and are similar to their general reactions. Although much of the public debate over healthcare reform has been heated, barely a third of rank-and-file citizens express either enthusiasm (15%) or anger (19%) about the bill’s passage. However, only Democrats show greater enthusiasm than anger. Independents are twice as likely to be angry as enthusiastic, and Republicans 10 times as likely.

Bottom Line Passage of healthcare reform was a clear political victory for President Obama and his allies in Congress. While it also pleases most of his Democratic base nationwide, it is met with greater ambivalence among independents and with considerable antipathy among Republicans. Whether these groups’ views on the issue harden or soften in the coming months could be crucial to how healthcare reform factors into this year’s midterm elections. Given that initial public reaction to Sunday’s vote is more positive than recent public opinion about passing a healthcare reform bill, it appears some softening has already occurred.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 22, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

March 24, 2010 OBAMA FARES BEST AMONG HEALTHCARE POLITICAL PLAYERS Independents evenly split on the efforts of the president and Republicans in Congress by Jeffrey M. Jones President Obama gets higher ratings for the job he did on the healthcare reform process over the past year than either congressional party does, though none of the three primary political actors receives positive reviews from a majority of Americans.

These results are based on a March 22 USA Today/Gallup poll conducted after the House of Representatives passed historic healthcare legislation. Americans’ initial reaction to the bill’s passage was more positive than negative, but the fact that less than half of Americans give any of the three major players positive ratings underscores the divisive nature of the debate. Gallup over the past year found Americans expressing more confidence in Obama on healthcare reform than in either congressional delegation. These findings are consistent with Americans’ general tendency to give presidents higher ratings than Congress on matters such as political trust and job performance. Support for the healthcare legislation is strongly related to political party affiliation, so Democrats’ and Republicans’ ratings of the three primary political actors follow predictable patterns. Independents, on the other hand, divide evenly on the merits of the legislation, and their ratings of the president and Congress on healthcare could have implications for how they vote in November’s midterm elections. At this point, independents give more positive ratings to the Republicans in Congress (and President Obama) than to

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the Democrats in Congress, in terms of how each has handled problems with the healthcare system.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 22, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

March 24, 2010 MAJORITY OF POOR, YOUNG, UNINSURED BACK HEALTHCARE BILL A majority of seniors say passing it was a bad thing

Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

by Lydia Saad While 49% of Americans overall say Congress’ passing healthcare reform is a “good thing,” support is greater among Americans who currently lack health insurance. Passage of the bill also enjoys broad support among two of the populations least likely to have health insurance: younger adults and adults living in lower-income households. Older, higher-income, and insured Americans have more mixed reactions. The lone exception is seniors, 54% of whom see passage of the bill as a negative. A sharp divide is also seen by marital status—another demographic factor related to healthcare coverage. By 51% to 41%, married adults call the bill a bad thing. In contrast, unmarried adults call it a good thing by an even wider margin, 60% to 26%. Overall, the largest subgroup differences in support for the healthcare bill are seen by party identification. In a related finding, 73% of nonwhites (disproportionally Democratic in their party identification) say the bill’s passage was a good thing, compared with 40% of whites (who lean Republican). The average income of nonwhites is also lower than that of whites, which likely contributes to their higher support for the healthcare vote. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 22, 2010, as part of Gallup

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March 26, 2010 AMERICANS BACK FIVE-DAY-PER-WEEK MAIL DELIVERY Prefer that option to government funding for postal service, higher stamp prices by Lymari Morales As the U.S. Postal Service officially takes steps toward a reduced, five-day delivery schedule to help solve its financial problems, Gallup finds that 68% of Americans favor such a move—easily more than would like to see government funding for the postal service, higher stamp prices, or the closing of their local post office branches. Views on this issue are little changed from last year, save for Americans’ becoming slightly more supportive of reducing the number of days post offices are open—their preferred option overall. The March 16, 2010, Gallup poll was conducted just before the Postal Service’s official request this week that the independent Postal Regulatory Commission provide an opinion on dropping Saturday delivery. The Postal Service says the move would save more than $3 billion per year.

roughly a third of Americans with private insurance or Medicare, are politically independent.

Americans may not object to reduced mail delivery in part because they are more likely to send e-mails than letters in the mail (67% vs. 53%)—although they are still more likely to pay bills by mail than online (66% vs. 47%).

Given this finding from Gallup Daily tracking in March, passing healthcare legislation did not merely cater to the Democrats’ base, but could potentially expand it among the uninsured themselves, who may now have more reason to support Democrats. Gallup polling immediately after the healthcare vote found 58% of uninsured Americans, compared with 45% of insured Americans, favoring the bill. The net effect among all independents won’t necessarily be positive, however, as nearly 80% of that group currently has health insurance, and independents are almost evenly split on whether passage of the healthcare bill was a good thing or a bad thing. Uninsured More Independent at Every Age Level

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 999 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 16, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

March 29, 2010 UNINSURED AMERICANS SKEW INDEPENDENT, POLITICALLY But no more likely than those with private insurance/Medicare to be Democratic

Although the uninsured are clearly younger, on average, than the insured, age alone does not account for the tendency of the uninsured to be politically independent. At every age level, those without health insurance are more likely to be independent and less likely to be Republican than their insured counterparts.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 24,147 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 1-25, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The views of insured Americans (private health insurance or Medicare) are based on interviews with 17,101 national adults, and have an associated margin of sampling error of ±1 percentage point. The views of uninsured Americans are based on interviews with 2,531 national adults, and have an associated margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.

by Lydia Saad Uninsured Americans—those who stand to benefit the most from healthcare reform—are less Democratic and more independent than one might assume. Nearly half of the uninsured, compared with

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 29, 2010 ONE WEEK LATER, AMERICANS DIVIDED ON HEALTHCARE Structure of public reaction very similar to where it stood prior to bill’s passage by Lydia Saad Americans are now about evenly split in their reactions to the healthcare bill’s passage: 47% consider it a good thing and 50% a bad thing. The divided, but slightly negative, assessment is similar to what Gallup found in recent months prior to the final House vote, though a USA Today/Gallup one-night reaction poll conducted the night after it passed showed a more positive than negative evaluation.

Bottom Line The flurry of political activity and excitement surrounding the House of Representatives’ passage of healthcare reform last Sunday may have temporarily eased public opposition to the bill. Nearly a week after that vote, however, public opinion has settled back to a pattern that looks similar to Gallup’s final pre-vote reading in early March. At that time, 45% said they would advise their member of Congress to support the bill and 48% said they would advise voting against it. Americans’ views on passing the legislation were similarly divided in January and mid-December. Survey Methods

Democrats broadly hail passage of the new healthcare bill and Republicans mostly oppose it. Political independents also lean against the bill—by 11 points, with the majority opposed. This contrasts with the finding in USA Today/Gallup’s immediate reaction polling, from March 22, in which independents were closely divided.

Support for the bill across population segments in the latest poll reinforces Gallup’s earlier finding that the bill’s greatest champions are those it is most designed to benefit. Those without insurance are significantly more likely than those with insurance to say it is a good thing. There is a sharp divide in views between the lowest income earners and everyone else. And support for the bill continues to be higher among young adults—who are least likely to have insurance—than among middle-aged adults and seniors.

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Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 30, 2010 AMERICANS REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT COSTS OF HEALTHCARE BILL Americans more positive about effects of the bill on the nation than on themselves personally by Frank Newport One week after the passage of historic new healthcare legislation, Americans remain worried about the bill’s effect on costs—both for the nation as a whole and for them personally. A majority of Americans say healthcare costs in the U.S. and the federal budget deficit

will get worse as a result of the bill. Half of Americans believe that healthcare costs for themselves and their families will get worse.

stantially raise the costs of healthcare for the nation as a whole, or for them personally. Additionally, supporters face the fact that a majority of Americans believe the recently passed healthcare bill will either make no difference or make things worse for both the U.S. healthcare system in general and their personal healthcare situations. Americans do appear at least somewhat amenable to the argument that the bill will create a more positive situation for healthcare coverage in the U.S. This confirms previous findings showing that Americans are most likely to say new legislation would benefit lowincome families and those who currently have no insurance. Survey Methods

The March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll measured Americans’ views on four different ways in which the new bill could affect them personally, and six ways in which it could affect the nation as a whole. Americans gave the most negative responses to the cost dimensions tested in both sequences. These data underscore the results of previous Gallup research on healthcare reform legislation; costs have been the most frequently cited response when opponents have been asked to explain their opposition in their own words. The public does not view all aspects of the bill negatively. Americans are slightly more positive than negative about the bill’s impact on healthcare coverage in the U.S. and on the overall health of Americans in the U.S. Americans break even in terms of whether the bill will make their and their families’ overall health better or worse (although the majority says it will have no impact either way). Americans are more negative than positive when asked about the impact of the bill on their healthcare coverage and quality of healthcare received. In response to two broad questions about the impact of the bill, Americans clearly see more benefits from the bill for the country as a whole than for themselves personally. Even so, less than half of Americans say the benefit will be positive for the nation or themselves.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

March 30, 2010 UPTICK IN HIGH CHOLESTEROL AND HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE IN U.S. Seniors and black Americans continue to be the most likely to report high blood pressure by Elizabeth Mendes While policymakers spent much of 2009 focused on healthcare legislation, more Americans reported being diagnosed with high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, depression, and cancer. High blood pressure continues to be the most prevalent chronic condition in the United States, with 30.6% of adults reporting having been diagnosed with it in 2009, up 1.2 points from 2008. Rates of asthma and heart attack remain essentially unchanged.

Americans’ views on the impact of the new healthcare legislation are quite similar to those measured last November. Implications These data underscore a key challenge faced by proponents of the new healthcare bill: persuading Americans that the bill will not sub-

The increases in high blood pressure and high cholesterol parallel rises in diabetes and obesity in 2009, previously reported by Gallup. In 2009, Americans also reported exercising less on average

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than they did in 2008, an important point to note in assessing potential causes of the increases in chronic conditions. Increases in high blood pressure and high cholesterol are apparent across nearly all key demographic groups. The rates of high blood pressure increased by more than a percentage point among women, men, blacks, whites, those aged 45 to 64, those with annual incomes of less than $24,000 and more than $90,000, and in every region in the country. Blacks, whites, seniors (those aged 65 and older), those with annual incomes of $48,000 or more, and residents of the South, Midwest, and West had increases in cholesterol rates of a percentage point or more. In contrast, young adults (those between the ages of 18 and 29) had either decreases or no change across all chronic conditions in the 2009 compared with the 2008 survey.

March 31, 2010 POPE BENEDICT FAVORABLE RATING DROPS TO 40% IN U.S. Sharp drop evident among both Catholics and non-Catholics by Jeffrey M. Jones A new low of 40% of Americans view Pope Benedict XVI favorably amid new criticism about the Roman Catholic Church’s handling of child sex abuse by priests. Now, nearly as many Americans have an unfavorable view of the pope as have a favorable view.

High-Risk Populations: Key Findings • Seniors are the most likely to report high blood pressure (58.8%), high cholesterol (49.1%), diabetes (22.1%), and heart attack (12.7%). • Low-income Americans (those making less than $24,000 per year) have some of the highest rates of high cholesterol (30.2%), diabetes (15.9%), heart attack (7.3%), asthma (15.7%), and depression (29.4%). • Black Americans are disproportionately affected by high blood pressure (39.0%) and diabetes (15.6%). Bottom Line It is well-known that tackling the rising rates of high blood pressure and high cholesterol in the United States would have a significant impact on cutting healthcare costs and in reducing the prevalence of related issues such as heart attack and stroke. Gallup data suggest prevention and treatment efforts targeted toward low-income Americans and the black community, two groups that have among the highest rates of multiple chronic illnesses, could go a long way to improving the health of the nation as a whole. And although the battle over healthcare reform may have come to a conclusion, it is clear the country has a long way to go to improving disease prevention.

The current results represent a major shift from two years ago, when the pope’s favorable rating jumped to 63% as he was concluding a well-received visit to the United States that included personal meetings between the pope and victims of sex abuse by U.S. priests. The latest allegations of lax handling of abusive priests mostly concern past abuse cases in Europe, but they implicate the pope, who had a central role in the Catholic Church’s handling of sex abuse cases prior to his becoming pope. Pope Benedict’s image has deteriorated about equally among Catholics and non-Catholics from its 2008 high—by 20 and 23 points, respectively. Catholics continue to view him much more favorably than non-Catholics.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 350,000 national adults (aged 18 and older) each year, conducted between Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2008, and Jan. 2-Dec. 29, 2009. For annual results based on the stated total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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Pope Benedict’s predecessor, Pope John Paul II, also saw his U.S. favorable ratings drop in 2002 as the Catholic Church responded to similar criticism for its handling of priest sex abuse allegations, mostly from the United States—but only as low as 61% favorable and 26% unfavorable (compared to the current pope’s 40% favorable and 35% unfavorable). As the scandal faded, Pope John Paul II’s ratings improved, and Gallup’s final measurement on him showed a 78% favorable and 11% unfavorable rating. In general, Americans viewed Pope John Paul II more favorably than they view Pope Benedict XVI. That is partly because Pope John Paul II was a more familiar figure to Americans, with an average of 14% not having an opinion of him, compared with an average of 30% not having an opinion of Pope Benedict XVI.

These findings—in particular the large majority still desiring a public option—could explain why more advocates of the reform bill do not feel “enthusiastic” about it. According to Gallup polling conducted immediately after passage, most supporters of the bill said they were “pleased” rather than “enthusiastic” (66% vs. 29%). By contrast, nearly as many opponents of the bill were “angry” as “disappointed” (46% vs. 52%). Opponents of the plan—those calling passage a “bad thing”— are in near-total agreement that the bill goes too far in expanding the government’s role in the healthcare system and that it will cost the government too much. Survey Methods

Independents See the Most Flaws

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

In addition to sharing Republicans’ and Democrats’ concerns about the bill’s failure to address healthcare costs, and sharing Republicans’ concerns about government intervention and costs, the majority of independents agree with Democrats that the bill doesn’t do enough to regulate the healthcare industry. As a result, independents concur with four of the five critiques tested, one more than members of either political party do.

March 31, 2010 CONSENSUS: HEALTHCARE BILL FALLS SHORT ON CONTROLLING COSTS Otherwise, advocates and opponents of reform bill offer differing critiques by Lydia Saad Proponents, as well as opponents, of the new healthcare reform law think the legislation is less than perfect. Both groups agree that the bill didn’t do enough to deal with rising healthcare costs. Apart from this, however, they perceive very different types of flaws.

Implications A week after the voting ended, the partisan lines in the battle over healthcare reform are drawn as sharply as ever. However, the public consensus on the need to address the rising costs in healthcare may light the way forward. If Republican and Democratic leaders can agree on the best approaches for achieving meaningful efficiencies in the healthcare system, that could ultimately bring down the government’s costs and obviate the need for greater government involvement in healthcare, thereby bringing the two sides closer together. Survey Methods

Forty-seven percent of Americans polled by USA Today/Gallup March 26-28 say it is a good thing the plan passed, while 50% call it a bad thing. Three-quarters of the “good thing” group believe the law should include a government-run insurance plan, or public option. Also, 6 in 10 (59%) say it doesn’t go far enough in regulating the healthcare industry.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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April 01, 2010 REPUBLICANS MOVE AHEAD IN 2010 VOTE FOR CONGRESS Hold 47% to 44% advantage in registered voters’ preferences by Jeffrey M. Jones Registered voters now say they prefer the Republican to the Democratic candidate in their district by 47% to 44% in the midterm congressional elections, the first time the GOP has led in 2010 election preferences since Gallup began weekly tracking of these in March.

The USA Today/Gallup poll also shows a spike in voter enthusiasm in response to a different question, as now 62% of voters say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual,” up from 47% in early February. That is higher than Gallup has measured at any point in any of the past four midterm elections. The previous high of 49% was measured during the 2006 campaign. Supporters of both parties show similar gains on this enthusiasm measure, with a 14-point increase among Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) and a 16-point increase among Democrats (including Democratic-leaning independents). As a result, Republicans remain more likely to say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year, by 69% to 57%. Over the past four midterm elections, the party with the net advantage in enthusiasm has typically been the one to gain congressional seats in the election. Survey Methods

The March 22-28 results were obtained after the U.S. House’s passage of landmark healthcare reform legislation on March 21. The shift toward Republicans raises the possibility that the healthcare bill had a slightly negative impact on the Democrats’ political fortunes in the short run. A separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28 showed a similar result, with Republicans ahead by 46% to 45%. These results suggest the Republicans would have a strong showing if the midterm elections were held today. Since Republicans usually vote at higher rates than Democrats, the Republicans’ edge in voter preferences would likely exceed what the registered voter results indicate. A Republican advantage among all registered voters in midterm elections has been rare in Gallup’s 60-year history of tracking congressional voting preferences, happening only a few times each in the 1950, 1994, and 2002 election cycles—all years in which Republicans had strong Election Day showings. Voters More Enthusiastic Supporters of both parties are more energized about voting than they were before the healthcare bill passed. Fifty percent of Republicans and 35% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting this fall, up from the prior week’s 43% and 25%, respectively. Among all registered voters, the increase in the percentage very enthusiastic about voting was eight percentage points from last week, 32% to 40%.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,623 U.S. registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 22-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 01, 2010 CHRONIC CONDITIONS LINKED TO CANCER High blood pressure, high cholesterol, and diabetes all indicate elevated likelihood of cancer by Dan Witters Americans who report having been diagnosed with high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or diabetes are roughly twice as likely to report a cancer diagnosis as those who have not been diagnosed with these conditions, according to Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data. Americans who have experienced a heart attack are nearly three times more likely than those without a history of heart attack to have been diagnosed with cancer (18.1% to 6.5%). While each of these chronic health conditions become more common with age, the inter-relationships noted previously exist

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including liver, colon, and pancreatic cancer. However, researchers continue to investigate the directionality of the relationship. For example, as research has found that those with prolonged, longstanding diabetes appear to be more likely to also have pancreatic cancer, others who develop diabetes after age 50 are much more likely to be subsequently diagnosed with it. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index does not determine the type of cancer that respondents have been diagnosed with. The resulting relationships between all cancer diagnoses cumulatively and other health conditions, however, remain inescapable and compelling. Survey Methods

within every age bracket (18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+), and are thus preserved when controlling for age. Some of the conditions, however, are particularly pronounced when looking at specific age groups, most notably regarding heart attacks among respondents that are younger than 45.

Implications These measured links between health conditions do not necessarily imply that one directly causes the other, but can instead simply reflect shared high-risk behaviors. For example, tobacco smoke is considered a major risk factor of heart attack and lung cancer, and it can thus serve as a vanguard of both conditions at the same time. Cholesterol, in contrast, may be an example of a substance that is not a carcinogen, but rather something that may enhance the effects of carcinogens, thus resulting in some of the positive relationships that have been measured. Independent research in recent years has uncovered data that appear to link excess cholesterol to colon cancer and testicular cancer, while lower total cholesterol may reduce the risk of prostate cancer. Diabetes, too, has been clinically linked to some cancers,

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Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 350,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each year, conducted between Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2008, and Jan. 2-Dec. 29, 2009. For most results in this article, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum expected sampling error is no more than ±1.0 percentage point.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). The survey question asked respondents: “Have you ever been told by a physician or nurse that you have any of the following, or not? How about [in rotation]: cancer, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, heart attack, depression.” The diabetes incidence survey question that is asked does not differentiate between Type 1 (juvenile) and Type 2 (adult onset) diabetes. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 01, 2010 UNDEREMPLOYMENT RISES TO 20.3% IN MARCH Unemployment saw a slight but insignificant decline by Jenny Marlar Gallup Daily tracking finds that 20.3% of the U.S. workforce was underemployed in March—a slight uptick from the relatively flat January and February numbers.

capacity. It will continue to be important to track underemployment— to shed light on the true state of the U.S. workforce, and the millions of Americans who are searching for full-time employment. Survey Methods

These results are based on March interviews with more than 20,000 adults in the U.S. workforce, aged 18 and older. Gallup classifies respondents as underemployed if they are unemployed or working part-time but wanting full-time work. Gallup employment data are not seasonally adjusted. A rise in the percentage of part-timers wanting to work full time (from 9.2% to 9.9%) is responsible for the March increase in underemployment. Unemployment saw a slight, but insignificant, decline in March.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 20,504 national adults, who are part of the workforce, aged 18 and older, conducted March 1-31, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 4,164 adults who were underemployed in March, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 02, 2010 VIEWS OF PELOSI NOT FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED AFTER HEALTH VOTE Balance of opinion toward speaker still negative by Jeffrey M. Jones Underemployed Americans Still Not Hopeful Despite the Obama administration’s March 16 announcement that unemployment would remain high or increase in coming months, the underemployed in March became neither more nor less hopeful about finding work soon. Six in 10 underemployed Americans are not hopeful they will find work or move from part-time to full-time work in the next four weeks. That translates to 12% of the workforce that is both underemployed and not hopeful they will find their desired amount of work. The lack of change suggests that underemployed Americans anticipated long-term difficulties in finding work well before the administration’s formal announcement was made.

Bottom Line As unemployed Americans find part-time, temporary, and seasonal work, the official unemployment rate could decline. However, this does not necessarily mean more Americans are working at their desired

Americans’ views of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are not fundamentally changed after the passage of healthcare reform. Though more Americans now have an opinion of her, both her favorable and her unfavorable ratings are up from the last reading, to 36% and 54%, respectively.

The currently net-negative view of Pelosi from the March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll stands in stark contrast to opinions of her as she became speaker of the House in January 2007. At that time, twice as many Americans viewed her favorably (44%) as unfavorably (22%). Opinions of Pelosi grew more negative over the course of her first two years as speaker, such that about as many Americans viewed her favorably as unfavorably. During the last year, Americans’ views have become much more negative than positive. Americans’ views of the Democratic leader in the Senate, Harry Reid, are similar to those for Pelosi—29% favorable and 45% unfavorable. It is unclear whether the healthcare reform process hurt

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Reid’s image. The last time Gallup measured opinions of him, in November 2008, Americans were divided in their views, as they were for Pelosi at that time. However, it is clear that as Reid has become better known, his negative ratings have increased while his positive ratings have been relatively flat.

April 05, 2010 TEA PARTIERS ARE FAIRLY MAINSTREAM IN THEIR DEMOGRAPHICS Skew right politically, but have typical profile by age, education, and employment by Lydia Saad Tea Party supporters skew right politically; but demographically, they are generally representative of the public at large. That’s the finding of a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28, in which 28% of U.S. adults call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement.

Americans are less negative toward—but also less familiar with—the Republican congressional leaders. Opinions of House Minority Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are about equally positive and negative. More than onethird of Americans do not have an opinion of Boehner (39%) or McConnell (37%), compared with 26% for Reid and 10% for Pelosi.

Tea Party supporters are decidedly Republican and conservative in their leanings. Also, compared with average Americans, supporters are slightly more likely to be male and less likely to be lowerincome.

As is the case for Pelosi, Boehner is better known now than he was before the healthcare reform process heated up, but the balance of opinion on him is unchanged. In July 2009, 25% of Americans viewed the House Republican leader favorably, 23% viewed him unfavorably, and 52% had no opinion. The current poll marks the first time Gallup has measured opinions of McConnell. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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In several other respects, however—their age, educational background, employment status, and race—Tea Partiers are quite representative of the public at large. A Uniformly Negative Reaction to Health Bill Over the past year, Tea Party movement activists—originally kindled by grass-roots opposition to the economic stimulus bill and taxpayer bailouts of homeowners—came out strongly against the Democrats’ national healthcare reform plans. That stance is evident in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, in which 87% of Tea Party supporters— versus 50% of all Americans—say they consider passage of healthcare reform a bad thing.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 05, 2010 OBAMA APPROVAL ON HEALTHCARE RECOVERS TO 42% Ratings on economy, foreign affairs, deficit generally stable this year by Frank Newport President Obama’s approval rating for handling healthcare policy, now at 42%, has recovered from a downtick measured in January and February of this year—before the healthcare bill became law.

While opposition to the healthcare bill is perhaps the most distinctive characteristic of Tea Party supporters in the new poll, their views on abortion are also notable. Nearly two-thirds consider themselves “pro-life” on the abortion issue, compared with 46% of all national adults.

More generally, a separate question included in the March 26-28 poll showed that 37% of Americans view the Tea Party movement favorably and 40% unfavorably, with the remainder expressing no opinion. Predictably, Republicans and conservatives are most likely to have favorable opinions. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

Obama’s approval ratings on healthcare policy were in the 40% to 44% range in surveys conducted in the second half of 2009 but fell to the upper 30% range earlier this year as the debate on healthcare reform intensified. The current uptick suggests that the president regained some positioning on the issue as a result of the healthcare bill’s passage. Obama’s approval on handling healthcare policy has consistently been lower than his contemporaneous overall job ratings. His 42% rating on healthcare in the March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll is slightly below the 47% overall job approval rating he received in the same poll, and below his average in Gallup Daily tracking for the same period of time. Obama’s current approval ratings on other dimensions range from a high of 48% for his handling of foreign affairs to a low of 31% for his handling of the federal budget deficit and the situation between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Obama’s ratings on handling foreign affairs, the economy, and the federal deficit are roughly in line with readings earlier this year, albeit down significantly from several points in 2009. For example, as recently as November of last year, Obama’s approval on handling the economy was at 44%; today it is 37%. Obama began his administration back in February 2009 with a 59% approval rating on the economy. As noted, the trend on Obama’s handling of healthcare reflects a slightly different pattern. Although his January and February ratings on healthcare showed a modest decline from what was measured last summer and fall, his rating has rebounded to 42%, not significantly different from those readings.

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 06, 2010 AMERICANS PRIORITIZE ENERGY OVER ENVIRONMENT FOR FIRST TIME Data represent a continuing shift in opinion toward energy production by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are more likely to say the U.S. should prioritize development of energy supplies than to say it should prioritize protecting the environment, the first time more have favored energy production over environmental protection in this question’s 10-year history.

cans’ opinions have shown significant movement each year in the direction of prioritizing energy production. This change has been evident among nearly every major demographic subgroup, although self-identified liberals have remained relatively steadfast in saying the environment should be a higher priority. At the same time, Americans continue to advocate greater energy conservation by consumers (52%) over greater production of oil, gas, and coal supplies (36%) as a means of solving the nation’s energy problems. Americans have always come out in favor of greater consumer conservation, though this year marks the highest percentage favoring production (by a percentage point) in the last 10 years.

The movement toward pro-production attitudes comes at a time when Americans’ concerns about the U.S. energy situation have subsided. Thirty-three percent of Americans describe the energy situation in the United States as “very serious,” down from 42% last year and the lowest since 2005. Additionally, 45% expect the U.S. to face a critical energy shortage in the next five years, down sharply from 62% in 2008, when gas prices were soaring, and the lowest Gallup has measured in the last 10 years. One possible explanation for the greater public priority on energy production at a time of diminished concern about energy is that Americans typically become somewhat less likely to say they favor environmental protection during down economic times. In the same March 4-7 poll, Gallup also found a new high in the percentage of Americans favoring economic growth over environmental protection. Survey Methods

The March 4-7 Gallup poll was conducted a few weeks before President Obama came out in favor of oil exploration off some sections of the U.S. coast, and shortly after he advocated the expanded use of nuclear power in the United States. The current data represent a continuing shift in opinion toward energy production. Since 2007, when Americans’ preferences for environmental protection were the greatest (58% to 34%), Ameri-

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Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 06, 2010 AMERICANS’ CONFIDENCE IN BANKS REMAINS AT HISTORICAL LOW However, 58% continue to express confidence in their primary bank by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist As the Senate considers financial reform legislation, a new Gallup poll shows that Americans’ confidence in banks has not returned on Main Street as it has on Wall Street. The percentage of Americans saying they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in U.S. banks is now 20%—not much different from the 18% of a year ago or the 22% of last summer. Four in 10 Americans currently say they have “very little” confidence in U.S. financial institutions.

Gallup has measured banking confidence in various surveys dating to the late 1970s. Since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, Americans’ confidence has reached new lows, falling below the readings near 30% during the 1990-91 recession that reflected the fallout associated with the savings and loan debacle of the late 1980s. Most Still Have Confidence in Their Main Bank While most Americans profess comparatively little confidence in the banking industry, the majority continue to express confidence in their main or primary bank, where they do most of their banking business. As was the case last April, 58% say they have a great deal (31%) or quite a lot (27%) of confidence in their main bank. Only about 1 in 10 Americans express “very little” confidence in their primary bank.

Nor should it be alarming that confidence in banking has not surged back to its previous levels over the past year. Normally, confidence is built or lost slowly, over an extended period. It is likely to take many years before Americans’ confidence in the banking industry returns to anything close to its 2006 level of about 50%. Over the next several months, as Congress debates financial reform and the midterm congressional elections heat up, there will be potential political benefits to be gained by disparaging banks and bankers. Regardless of whether such derision may be deserved, it would be good for all involved to keep in mind that Americans’ confidence in banks remains fragile. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 24, 2010, as part of the Gallup Poll Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

April 07, 2010 VOTERS ISSUE STRONG REBUKE OF INCUMBENTS IN CONGRESS Fewer than half (49%) would re-elect own member, 28% for most members by Lydia Saad A record-low percentage of U.S. voters—28%—say most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected. The previous low was 29% in October 1992. The trend for previous midterm elections reveals that the 28% re-elect figure puts the sitting majority party in a danger zone. In the two recent midterm elections in which the congressional balance of power changed (1994 and 2006), the percentage of voters saying most members deserved to be re-elected fell below 40%, as it does today. By contrast, in 1998 and 2002, when the existing Republican majority was maintained, 55% or better held this view.

Commentary It should not be surprising that Americans have more confidence in their main or local bank than in the overall banking industry. Such a finding is consistent with what Gallup has found in local vs. national ratings of other areas such as education, healthcare, and crime.

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This strong rebuke of congressional incumbents comes from a March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup survey. The same poll finds 49% of voters, a near-record low, saying their own member of Congress deserves to be re-elected. This marks only the second time since Gallup began asking this question in 1992 that the figure has dipped below 50%, and the first on the doorstep of a midterm election. Bottom Line Voters’ anti-incumbent mood is like nothing Gallup has seen in the past four midterm election cycles. While that could have a negative impact on incumbents from both parties, the greater exposure of the Democrats by virtue of their majority status means greater risk for their candidates. Additionally, both parties have seen their majority control of Congress wiped out in midterm elections with less antiincumbent fervor than is seen today. Simply put, the party in power seems to take the brunt of voters’ wrath in these situations. Gallup’s latest generic ballot readings on the vote for Congress, in which support for Democratic candidates is precariously low for that party, point to a similar conclusion.

The top issues voters say they will take into account when voting this year are similar to the ones Americans currently cite as the most important problems facing the country. But they are quite different from those in the last midterm elections, in 2006, when international matters like Iraq and terrorism topped domestic concerns in voters’ minds. Today, as the United States continues its recovery from the economic downturn that developed in 2008-2009, the economy is the top issue for Democratic (58%), independent (57%), and Republican (54%) voters. Democrats also assign a high degree of importance to healthcare and unemployment. For Republicans, terrorism and the federal budget deficit are the next-most-important issues after the economy. The deficit ranks as the second-most-important issue for independents.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 968 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Healthcare Backlash?

April 08, 2010 VOTERS RATE ECONOMY AS TOP ISSUE FOR 2010 Majority of registered voters say it will be extremely important to their vote by Jeffrey M. Jones Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say the economy will be extremely important to their vote for Congress this year, making it the top issue in the 2010 elections. Healthcare, unemployment, and the federal budget deficit rank behind the economy in importance, with the environment the least important of the seven issues tested in the March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll.

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Much of Congress’ work this year has focused on healthcare, and Americans have been divided on the legislation both before and after it passed. But it is unclear how much of a voter backlash there may be against the Democratic Party this fall because of this issue. Republican and independent voters are much less likely than Democratic voters to say healthcare will be important to their vote for Congress. Moreover, among voters who say healthcare is extremely important to their vote, roughly equal percentages say they would vote for the Democratic (47%) and the Republican (48%) candidate in their district if the election were held today. Democratic candidates may be more vulnerable on government spending, as both Republicans and independents rate the federal budget deficit as a more important issue than healthcare. And among those who say the deficit is extremely important to their vote, 56% would vote for the Republican candidate and 36% for the Democrat.

Survey Methods

Partisan Ratings

Results are based on telephone interviews with 968 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The Democratic Party’s favorable image has dropped among all three partisan groups compared to August/early September 2009.

April 08, 2010 DEMOCRATIC PARTY IMAGE DROPS TO RECORD LOW Favorable images of Democratic, Republican Parties now tied

There has been little change by party in the Republican Party’s favorable image compared to the late summer 2009 measure, although the percentage of Republicans with a favorable image of their party remains significantly higher than it was in May 2009.

by Frank Newport Americans’ favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in a late March USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18year history of this measure. Favorable impressions of the Republican Party are now at 42%, thus closing the gap between the two parties’ images that has prevailed for the past four years.

Survey Methods

Gallup last measured party images in late August/early September of last year. At that point, the Democratic Party enjoyed an 11point favorable image advantage over the Republican Party. Now, the favorable ratings of the two parties are essentially tied. The images of the two major parties have particular significance in a midterm election year. For example, the favorable rating of the Democratic Party exceeded that of the Republican Party by 52% to 37% just prior to the 2006 midterm elections, in which the Democrats gained 30 House seats. Americans’ current 41% favorable rating of the Democratic Party is five points lower than the party’s previous low, recorded twice in 2005. By contrast, the Republican Party’s image reached its all-time low of 31% in December 1998—just after the House of Representatives voted to impeach President Bill Clinton. The Republicans’ current rating is improved from a pair of 34% ratings Gallup measured in late 2008 and in May 2009.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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April 09, 2010 YEAR-OVER-YEAR SPENDING UP 7% IN MARCH Biggest gains in the East and Midwest, and among older, lower-, and middle-income Americans by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist An early Easter, a surging stock market, better weather, and weak year-ago comparables combined in March to drive Americans’ selfreported spending up 7% compared with March 2009. While this is welcome news for the nation’s retailers and the economy as a whole, spending remains in the “new normal” range ($59-$67) established last year.

However, a closer look at the demographic groups responsible for the increased March spending provides reason for caution and at least partly explains the seeming contradiction between increased consumer spending and near-double-digit unemployment as well as declining use of consumer credit. The East and Midwest benefit from a much-improved jobs picture in manufacturing and finance compared with March of last year, when the stock market hit bottom, layoffs were soaring, and every business was cutting to the bone. But such year-over-year gains may not continue in future months. Also, March year-over-year spending actually declined in the West. Older Americans may not be relying as much on consumer credit as other consumers are, and they may not be as worried about unemployment, so their improved spending levels may continue. However, the same could be said about upper-income consumers, whose self-reported spending was down 7% in March. The lack of increased spending by upper-income Americans could be related to a wide range of concerns ranging from reduced home values and past investment losses to today’s nonexistent rates of return on safe investments and fears of higher taxes. Regardless, this lack of spending by those who have the resources to do so is a clear reflection of the spending “new normal.” In sum, there is reason for optimism that consumer spending in the U.S. is beginning to recover modestly from its levels at the depths of the recession. However, it seems far too early to assume that the spending new normal that has dominated over the past 15 months is no longer in effect.

Biggest Year-Over-Year Gains Spending increased 24% in the East and 21% in the Midwest over last March as the economy and employment in these two regions have shown marked improvement over the past year. The March stock market surge may have encouraged spending among older Americans, as those aged 50 to 64 (up 22%) and those 65 and older (up 12%) increased their spending. Spending among middle- and lower-income Americans (those making less than $90,000 a year) was 12% above year-ago levels.

Survey Methods

Spending “New Normal” Dominates The year-over-year spending increase for March that Gallup finds is consistent with the 9.1% sales gains Thomson Reuters reported and the 10% sales gains the International Council of Shopping Centers estimated for the month. Even taking the early Easter and improved weather into account, March spending represents a nice improvement from a year ago. 120

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For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup consumer spending results are based on random half-samples of approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Results for March are based on telephone interviews with more than 14,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Results for the various breakouts reported here are based on interviews with more than 1,000 respondents, with a maximum margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 09, 2010 GREEN BEHAVIORS COMMON IN U.S., BUT NOT INCREASING Nearly all recycle, making it the most common environmentally friendly action

engaging in any such actions, and again, those numbers have hardly changed over the past decade.

by Lymari Morales Americans are today no more environmentally friendly in their actions than they were at the turn of the century. While more than three in four recycle, have reduced household energy use, and buy environmentally friendly products, these numbers have barely budged since 2000.

Given that Americans name the environment as the least important of seven major issues to their vote for Congress, it is improbable that environmental activism will increase by any significant degree this election year. Such behavior is, however, more likely among those who view global warming as a serious threat in their lifetimes. Implications Americans in 2010 remain more likely to recycle newspapers, glass, aluminum, motor oil, or other items than to undertake any of the other environmentally friendly actions Gallup tests—with 9 in 10 saying they do so. Gallup asked about replacing standard light bulbs with compact fluorescent light bulbs and using reusable shopping bags for the first time this year, and it found Americans about as likely to take these actions as they are to take other steps, such as reducing household energy consumption and buying more environmentally friendly products. The stability of these findings stands in juxtaposition to the political and media attention paid to global warming and climate change over the past decade, particularly since Al Gore’s 2006 documentary “An Inconvenient Truth.” Gallup also finds Americans no more worried about the threat posed by global warming than they were at the start of the decade and that very few Americans name the environment as the most important problem facing the country. In fact, Gallup recently found Americans’ level of concern about many environmental problems at a 20-year low, and environmental quality ratings rebounding to where they were at the start of the decade. Those who perceive a serious threat from global warming in their lifetimes are often not any more likely to take environmentally friendly steps than are those not perceiving a global warming threat. Only in the case of buying more environmentally friendly products or using reusable shopping bags is there a meaningful difference. There are also few noteworthy differences by age, income, or party identification. Environmental Activism Also Steady Americans are also no more likely now than in the past to engage in activist behavior to promote environmentally friendly actions by organizations, politicians, or companies. Far less than half report

While most Americans continue to voluntarily take steps to help the environment, the likelihood that an individual will do so appears fairly fixed and largely unaffected by outside influences or even one’s own demographics. Stated more simply, those who are willing to undertake such measures are probably already doing so, while others may never be willing to do so. The entrenched nature of these findings suggests that those who seek to encourage even more environmentally friendly behaviors from the overall population have their work cut out for them, especially if the actions remain voluntary. It is possible that in these matters, only tangible incentives will inspire further action, such as the 5-cent bag tax recently levied in Washington, D.C., which cut plastic bag usage from 22.5 million to 3 million in its first month in effect. Still, policymakers should be mindful that with many Americans already voluntarily taking steps to help the environment and with the issue ranking very low on Americans’ overall policy priority list, such initiatives could be a tough sell. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the half sample of 519 national adults in Form A and 495 national adults in Form B, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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April 12, 2010 DEMOCRATS’ ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE IMPROVING Now have net positive score on Gallup Economic Confidence Index by Jeffrey M. Jones Democrats are substantially more positive about the economy than are Republicans or independents, and have become more so in recent weeks, underscoring the large political component evident in how Americans view the economy.

The results are based on weekly averages from Gallup Daily tracking. Economic confidence among all Americans has improved from -32 to -24 over the last four weeks. The Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair, or poor) and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or worse. Democrats’ confidence is improving in both regards. In the most recent week (March 29-April 4 interviewing), 60% of Democrats said the economy was “getting better,” up from 47% four weeks ago. And the percentage of Democrats who rate current conditions as “poor” dropped from 45% to 36% over the same time, with a slight increase from 12% to 16% in “excellent” and “good” ratings of the economy.

crats, whose party controls the White House and both Houses of Congress, are substantially more optimistic about the economy’s direction than are Republicans or independents, and have become more so in recent weeks. Republicans, at odds with the president and the Democratic leadership in Congress, are much less likely to agree that the economy is moving in a positive direction. The timing of the improvement in Democrats’ views suggests that passage of the healthcare bill may have helped brighten their economic outlook more generally. In addition to healthcare, there are positive economic signs that could reinforce the view that the economy is improving, including recent increases in consumer spending and retail sales, and the government’s March jobs report, which showed the largest job growth in nearly three years. As is often the case, there are still indications that the economy is not improving, given that the unemployment rate remains high. Additionally, Gallup’s Daily tracking of job creation in the U.S. does not yet show substantial improvement, and while self-reported consumer spending increased modestly last month, it is nowhere near as high as in 2008, before the major impact of the recession. Such mixed signs allow political leanings to exert more influence on one’s assessment of the economy than would be the case if all the data pointed in one direction. Survey Methods

Democrats are similar to Republicans and independents in having a net negative evaluation of current economic conditions, though Democrats’ assessment is less negative than that of the other party groups. Where the parties diverge, rather dramatically, is in their perceptions of whether the economy is improving. At this time, by 60% to 36%, Democrats say economic conditions are getting better. By 75% to 21%, Republicans say they are getting worse. Implications There clearly is a political component to how Americans view the economy, in particular in terms of their economic outlook. Demo -

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Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 2,953 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 29-April 3, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the samples of 903 Democrats, 839 Republicans, and 1,069 independents, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 13, 2010 EMPLOYEES AT GROWING COMPANIES MORE LIKELY TO BE THRIVING Regardless of income level, “thriving” is higher for U.S. workers at companies that are hiring by Elizabeth Mendes American workers who report that their companies are hiring are more likely to rate their current and future lives positively. Twothirds of workers at companies that are hiring are “thriving” versus about half of those working for employers that are letting go.

that are hiring and those at companies that are letting go exists across all key demographic groups. Some of the largest thriving gaps between workers at companies that are hiring versus letting go are found for low-income Americans, those with less than a high school education, and for those living in the South. Additionally, the gap in thriving between companies that are hiring and those that are letting go is larger among male workers than it is among female workers.

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index classifies Americans as either “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering,” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. In every quarter since Gallup began tracking American worker’s perceptions of hiring and letting go at their companies, there has been a thriving gap between the two groups, averaging 15 percentage points.

The gap in thriving began to shrink in the fourth quarter of 2008, the time period during which the job market in the United States began to rapidly deteriorate, perhaps pointing to a pervasive lack of job security during the worst of the recession. The thriving gap started to grow again during the second quarter of 2009. Since then, thriving among workers at companies that are hiring has continued to grow, while thriving at companies that are letting go has remained flat. More Workers Thriving at Hiring Companies Regardless of Demographic Differences The correlation between the hiring/letting go status of one’s company and personal thriving status does not in and of itself prove that there is a causal connection between the two. However, analysis of data from the January-March 2010 Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index finds that the gap in thriving between employees at companies

In March of this year, 53.1% of all Americans were thriving, the third highest thriving percentage found in any month since Gallup and Healthways began measurement in January 2008. Typically, Americans with higher incomes and those with more education are among the most likely to be thriving among key groups. While this is still true among employees at companies that are hiring and those that are letting go, the socioeconomic differences do not appear to explain the gap in thriving between the two groups. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of more than 20,000 employed adults, aged 18 and older, in each quarter from January 2008-March 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The Life Evaluation Index is based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks people to evaluate their present and future lives on a scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where “0” is the worst possible life and “10” is the best possible life. Those who rate today a “7” or higher and the future an “8” or higher are considered to be “thriving.” Those who rate today and the future a “4”

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or lower on the scale are considered to be “suffering.” The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated as the percentage of thriving Americans minus the percentage of suffering Americans. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 13, 2010 CONGRESS’ JOB APPROVAL RATING IMPROVES, BUT STILL LOW Americans rate Democrats, Republicans in Congress similarly by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ approval of the job Congress is doing remains low, at 23%, but has improved since Congress passed healthcare reform legislation.

The 16% approval rating in March was just two points above the all-time-low 14% approval recorded in July 2008. Even with the significant jump this month, the 23% reading from the new April 8-11 Gallup poll remains well below Congress’ 34% historical average approval rating. In the past month, approval ratings of Congress among self-identified Democrats have surged from 24% to 41%. Independents’ ratings also increased, from 13% to 20%. Meanwhile, Republicans’ ratings fell significantly, from 14% to 7%. The changes in ratings by Republicans and Democrats are consistent with the notion that the healthcare legislation has affected the way many Americans view Congress, given the increase in ratings among Democrats, who largely supported the legislation, and the decline among Republicans, who were largely opposed. The 7% approval rating for Congress among Republicans is the lowest Gallup has measured for any party group since it began tracking congressional approval by party in the early 1990s. Separately, a March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted the week after healthcare reform passed, asked Americans to rate the job each party in Congress is doing. Thirty-seven percent said they approved of the job the Democrats in Congress are doing, and 33% approved of congressional Republicans’ performance. Higher ratings for each party in Congress (37% and 33%) than for Congress overall (23%) are typical, since Americans generally rate their preferred party’s congressional caucus quite positively. The

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poll finds 65% of Republicans approving of the job the Republicans in Congress are doing and 75% of Democrats approving of the job the Democrats in Congress are doing. The data suggest that Republicans’ overall ratings of Congress are based largely on their feelings toward the Democratic majority— given Republicans’ 7% approval rating for Congress overall and 5% for the Democrats in Congress. On the other hand, Democrats’ ratings of Congress may take into account both their party’s majority status but also some frustration with the Republican minority, as their ratings for Congress overall (41%) are much lower than for the Democrats in Congress (75%).

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010, and 1,033 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on these total samples of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 14, 2010 AMERICANS SPLIT ON WHETHER THEIR INCOME TAXES ARE TOO HIGH Views since Bush tax cuts were implemented continue to be more positive by Frank Newport For the second straight year, slightly less than half of Americans say the amount of federal income tax they have to pay is too high, while almost as many say the amount they pay in taxes is about right.

Forty-eight percent of Americans in the $75,000 and higher income group say their taxes are too high, exactly the same as the overall average. This is only marginally different from those in lower income categories. (Sample-size considerations dictate that the top income group Gallup uses for its basic surveys is $75,000 and up. It is possible that the small numbers of Americans in higher income groups, in particular those making $250,000 and up, would be more likely to complain that their taxes are too high.) Republicans, who have generally been identified as favoring deeper tax cuts, are in fact most likely in the current survey to say their taxes are too high, albeit at a level (54%) that is only marginally above the overall average. Democrats are significantly less likely to say their taxes are too high, although 6% say the amount they pay in taxes is too low. Survey Methods

Gallup has been asking Americans about taxes in this format since 1956. For most of this time, the majority of Americans have viewed their taxes as too high. This includes the 69% who felt this way in 1969, marking the highest “too high” percentage on record. As recently as 1999, 68% of Americans told Gallup their taxes were too high. A big shift in these views came about in the last eight years, coincident with the implementation of the George W. Bush administration tax cuts. The “too high” percentage in Gallup’s polling fell from 65% in April 2001 to 47% in January 2003—after the first Bush tax cuts became law. Americans’ views on taxes have fluctuated modestly since then, rising slightly to 53% “too high” in 2007, before dropping to 46% last year and 48% this year. Last year’s percentage tied a reading from 1961—shortly after John F. Kennedy had been inaugurated as president—for the lowest in Gallup history. Throughout Gallup’s history of asking this question, no more than 3% of Americans have ever said they pay “too little” in taxes. There is not a great deal of differentiation in response to the tax question across major income groups.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 14, 2010 SIX IN 10 AMERICANS EXPECT THEIR TAXES TO INCREASE Majority of middle-, lower-income Americans expect a tax hike in next year by Jeffrey M. Jones Sixty-three percent of Americans believe their taxes will increase in the next 12 months, while 4% expect a change that will reduce their taxes. Majorities of all income groups share this view, though it is more common among Americans in upper-income households.

Americans in most demographic groups widely expect their taxes to increase over the next year, but there is pronounced variation among income groups, as noted, and by political party affiliation.

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Specifically, 74% of Republicans expect their taxes to go up, as do 64% of independents. A proportionately lower 49% of Democrats share that view, but it is still the most common response within the group. Forty-one percent of Democrats expect their taxes to remain unchanged, and 6% think theirs will go down.

April 15, 2010 AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON HEALTHCARE LAW REMAIN STABLE Latest poll shows 45% saying passage of law was a good thing, 49% a bad thing by Frank Newport Americans remain divided on the merits of the new healthcare law, with 45% saying it was a good thing that Congress passed the legislation and 49% saying it was a bad thing. This assessment from an April 8-11 Gallup poll shows little change from two weeks ago.

Expectations for a tax increase among the general U.S. population are much more common now than when Gallup last asked this question, in late 1994—after Republicans won control of both houses of Congress in that year’s midterm elections. At that time, 35% expected their taxes to go up, 20% expected them to go down, and the plurality of 41% expected no change. Gallup also asked the question during the Carter presidency, in April 1978—a year and three months into the Carter administration, which is the amount of time the Obama administration has been in office to date. At that time, Americans’ expectations for their taxes were similar to what Gallup finds today: 60% expected their taxes to go higher, 7% expected them to go lower, and 25% thought they would stay the same. Bottom Line President Obama cut federal income taxes for low- and middleincome Americans in the economic stimulus plan, and is looking to extend the Bush-era tax cuts on middle-income families in his 2011 budget; still, a majority of people in low- and middle-income households expect their taxes to be raised over the next 12 months. Although the question in the current poll does not specifically mention federal income taxes, it was (and has in the past been) asked after a series of questions on income taxes, such as those reported here. Thus, respondents are most likely thinking in terms of changes to their federal income taxes rather than state or local taxes. Despite the president’s tax policies to date and his plans for the future, middle- and lower-income Americans may perceive that the federal government will need to raise taxes to pay for its greater spending and rising deficits since Obama took office, including the recently passed healthcare legislation, with its price tag of just under $1 trillion. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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More generally, the current level of support mirrors what Gallup has found in polling conducted for months prior to the bill’s passage. Over the past year, Americans have been remarkably stable in their assessments of the bill, with neither supporters nor opponents able to generate sustained majority agreement with their position. Democrats and Republicans have totally different views of the healthcare law—as has consistently been the case over the last year. More than 8 out of 10 Democrats in the April poll say passage of the law was a good thing, while a similar percentage of Republicans say its passage was a bad thing. Independents are more negative than positive.

Americans Expect and Welcome Future Changes A late March USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted the week after the bill was passed, found that Americans hardly expect it to be the last word on healthcare legislation. Three-quarters predict that Congress will vote on additional new healthcare legislation within the next five years, and about the same percentage say this would be a good idea.

The wording of this particular question specified changes that would either expand or cut back on the legislation. As a result, support for the idea of altering the law ends up being almost identical across partisan groups. These findings underscore the fact that Democrats, who largely support the recently passed bill, are still not totally satisfied with it, and would welcome further changes to it in the years ahead. The fact that Republicans, who largely oppose the bill, would also welcome changes (most likely repealing it or cutting it back) suggests that the legislative struggle over healthcare reform is not yet over. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 16, 2010 VOTERS CURRENTLY DIVIDED ON SECOND OBAMA TERM Just under half say he deserves re-election

50%. The current results also echo what Gallup found recently when it asked voters whether they would be more likely to vote for Obama or the Republican candidate in the 2012 presidential election. Gallup has asked the public whether other recent presidents deserved re-election, and the results suggest that the question is not highly predictive this far out from a president’s re-election bid. For example, in late April/early May 2002, 69% of registered voters said George W. Bush deserved re-election. At that time, Bush’s job approval rating was 77% as he was still enjoying the post-9/11 rally. Bush did win re-election in 2004, although in a close contest with John Kerry. The current numbers for Obama are similar to what Gallup found for Bill Clinton at almost precisely the same point in his presidency, in late March 1994. In that poll, 46% of Americans (the survey did not identify registered voters) said Clinton deserved to be re-elected and 48% said he did not. Americans became somewhat less likely to say Clinton was deserving of re-election over the course of 1994. Gallup’s last measurement before the 1994 midterm elections, in October, showed 38% of Americans (and the same percentage of registered voters) saying Clinton deserved re-election, with the majority of 57% saying he did not. The Democratic Party suffered huge losses in the 1994 midterm elections, but Clinton was elected to a second term two years later by a comfortable margin over Bob Dole.

In late 1991 and early 1992, Americans were more inclined to say the elder George Bush deserved than did not deserve re-election. However, over the course of 1992, his approval rating dropped and voters ended up voting him out of office in favor of Clinton.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Registered voters are about evenly divided over whether President Barack Obama is deserving of a second term in office. Currently, 46% say he deserves re-election and 50% say he does not. Predictably, Democrats are one-sided for Obama’s re-election and Republicans are one-sided against it, while independents lean against a second Obama term.

Bottom Line

The 46% who say Obama deserves re-election is similar to his recent job approval ratings, which have been running just under

At this point, Americans are closely divided as to whether Obama should have a second presidential term, and independents—who were important to Obama’s election win in 2008—currently say he does not deserve re-election. However, data collected in the first

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terms of the prior three presidents suggest those attitudes can change—even in the same year in which a president is actively campaigning for re-election, as was the case for the elder George Bush. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 968 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2010. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 19, 2010 AMERICANS STILL MOST CONFIDENT IN OBAMA ON ECONOMY Obama, business leaders have confidence of majority of Americans

Obama still tops the list despite a sharp loss of public confidence in his recommendations for the economy over the past year. A year ago, 71% said they were confident in Obama on economic matters, including 38% who said they had a great deal of confidence in him. Americans’ confidence in most political leaders has dropped since last year, with the exception of the Republican leaders in Congress, for whom there has been a five-point increase in confidence.

Economic confidence in Obama has dropped among all three political party groups, with slightly greater drops among independents and Republicans than among Democrats.

by Jeffrey M. Jones President Obama and “business leaders” engender the most confidence from Americans for their ability to do or to recommend the right thing for the economy. These are the only political or economic leaders of eight rated in whom a majority of Americans have at least a fair amount of confidence on economic matters. Democrats maintain a very high level of confidence in Obama on the economy, with 87% expressing confidence in him, including 53% who have a great deal of confidence. A slim majority of independents remain confident in Obama’s ability to do the right thing for the economy. Bottom Line

Though the two are tied at 54% overall confidence, Obama has an edge over business leaders because a much higher proportion of Americans say they have a great deal of confidence in him on the economy (25% vs. 11%). The April 8-11 poll—Gallup’s annual survey on the Economy and Personal Finance—marks the first time Gallup has asked Americans to rate their economic confidence in business leaders, labor union leaders, and Tea Party movement leaders. The last two groups, along with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, rank at the bottom of the list.

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The decline since April 2009 in economic confidence in Obama parallels the drop in his job approval rating on the economy and, at a broader level, the drop in his overall approval rating over the past year. Nevertheless, Americans express at least as much confidence in Obama on the economy as they do in any other group of political or economic leaders. That has often been the case in the 10 years Gallup has asked this question. Obama has been atop the list in both of his years as president, and George W. Bush ranked first or second (behind former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) through most of his presidency. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 19, 2010 DEMOCRATS’ SATISFACTION SPIKES, REPUBLICANS’ REMAINS SCARCE Jump in satisfaction among Democrats coincident with healthcare bill’s passage by Frank Newport Americans have grown more satisfied with the way things are going in the United States over the past month, fueled by a jump in satisfaction among Democrats and a smaller increase among independents. Republicans remain largely dissatisfied.

August 2009, satisfaction was at 36%, in turn the highest reading since January 2006. The all-time lowest level of satisfaction in Gallup’s 31-year history of this measure—7%—occurred in October 2008. Bottom Line While it is impossible to pinpoint the exact cause of changes in broad measures such as satisfaction, it is reasonable to assume that the jump in satisfaction among Democrats over the last month directly reflects the passage of the new healthcare bill. All previous Gallup research has shown that Democrats have been overwhelmingly in favor of the new healthcare legislation. This same research has shown that Republicans have been overwhelmingly opposed to the new legislation. The finding of little change in Republicans’ satisfaction over the last month may reflect the fact that there is little room for further deterioration in Republicans’ already very low satisfaction levels. Survey Methods

The substantial uptick in satisfaction among Democrats follows the House’s passage of the new healthcare bill on March 21 and President Obama’s signing the bill into law on March 23 (Obama signed the revised healthcare bill on March 30). Democrats’ satisfaction had dropped from readings in the mid-40% range last fall to 29% in early March. By the time of Gallup’s March 26-28 survey this year, Democrats’ satisfaction had begun to move back up; it has recovered to the current 49% in Gallup’s April 8-11 survey. There has been less variation in satisfaction among independents and Republicans over this same time period. Independents’ satisfaction inched up in April compared to March. Republicans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. is unchanged over the period that includes the passage of the new healthcare bill, with essentially identical readings of 10% to 11% in March and April. Overall Satisfaction The upward shift in satisfaction among Democrats (and, to a lesser degree, among independents) was enough to increase the nation’s overall satisfaction reading to 27% in April, up from 23% in late March and 19% in early March. From a longer-range perspective, the current increase in satisfaction represents a reversal of the decline that began last fall. In

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 20, 2010 BANKING REFORM SELLS BETTER WHEN “WALL STREET” IS MENTIONED Americans favor regulating Wall Street banks by 50% to 36% by Lydia Saad Americans are about evenly divided on the merits of giving the federal government new powers to regulate large banks and major financial institutions; however, they offer greater support when the issue is more specifically framed as regulating “Wall Street banks.”

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When Wall Street is not mentioned, net public support (percentage in favor minus percentage opposed) for banking reform legislation is +3 points, but when it is mentioned, net support is +14. Gallup measured support for enhanced federal regulation of banking using both wordings in its April 17-18 Daily tracking. A random half-sample of respondents was asked the “Wall Street” wording; the other half was asked about banks and major financial institutions, generally. On both questions, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to support banking reform. Seven in 10 Democrats favor the proposed new federal regulatory powers, regardless of the wording. By contrast, Republicans show greater support for reform when “Wall Street” is invoked than when it is not (35% vs. 22%).

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,024 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 17-18, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Two of the questions were asked of a random half sample of respondents on the Gallup Daily tracking survey for two nights. Question 1, asked of Form A, is based on interviews with 484 national adults. Question 2, asked of Form B, is based on interviews with 540 national adults. Results for both forms have an associated margin of error of ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 20, 2010 OBAMA APPROVAL SLIPS FURTHER IN FIFTH QUARTER TO 48.8% Ranks among lowest fifth-quarter averages for elected presidents by Jeffrey M. Jones Democrats Enjoy Slight Political Edge Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd is crafting a major financial regulatory reform bill that seeks to prevent another financial meltdown; the bill is expected to come to the Senate floor within the next week. Dodd is reportedly angry that his bill has yet to earn any Republican support— Republicans say the bill does not close all the loopholes needed to prevent further financial bailouts—suggesting it could be headed for an acrimonious party-line vote. Gallup’s new polling suggests the Democrats may hold a slight advantage in the looming public relations battle over Senate Bill 3217, given that, by 42% to 34%, Americans favor congressional Democrats over congressional Republicans to handle “this type of financial regulation.” The Democrats’ advantage stems mainly from the slight preference political independents have for that party (34% vs. 25%). However, the largest segment of independents—41%— has no party preference on the issue. 130

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President Barack Obama averaged 48.8% job approval for his fifth quarter in office, spanning Jan. 20-April 19 Gallup Daily tracking. That is the lowest of his presidency to date, though not appreciably worse than his 50.8% fourth quarter average.

Obama’s approval ratings have generally been near the 50% mark since mid-November, although all of his weekly approval averages since late February have been below 50%. Obama’s latest quarterly score of 48.8% is below average by historical standards, ranking in the 35th percentile of all presidential quarters for which Gallup has data, dating to 1945. The average historical quarterly approval average is 54%. Additionally, Obama’s latest quarterly average does not compare favorably to other elected presidents’ averages at similar points in their presidencies. Obama joins Ronald Reagan (46.3%) and Jimmy Carter (48.0%) as the only elected presidents after World War II whose fifth quarter approval averages were below the 50% mark.

Two of the three non-elected presidents (Harry Truman at 44.0% and Gerald Ford at 46.0%) also had sub-50% approval averages during their fifth quarters in office. The other non-elected president, Lyndon Johnson, averaged 70.0%. Obama’s ratings have generally been stable over the last six months, but the sixth quarter has proved an unkind one to presidents, as all but one saw their average approval ratings decline from their fifth to their sixth quarter in office. Only Richard Nixon avoided a decrease in this quarter among post-World War II presidents, and 6 of the 11 had substantial declines of four points or more.

Bottom Line Obama began his presidency with some of the higher approval ratings for a new president in recent history. But the battle over healthcare reform and the continuing economic slump have apparently taken a toll on his popularity, and his averages for his third, fourth,

and fifth quarters have all ranked on the low end historically. The net effect is that Obama’s 56% overall approval rating for the first five quarters of his presidency is essentially the same as the historical average approval rating of 54%. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 45,159 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 20-April 19, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 21, 2010 GALLUP TRACKING SHOWS SIGNS OF ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT Economy added 1.5 million new full-time jobs during the last month by Dennis Jacobe, Jenny Marlar, and Frank Newport Gallup estimates that more than 1.5 million Americans who were underemployed became employed to full capacity over the last month. Gallup’s 30-day average underemployment measure (not seasonally adjusted) declined to 19.2% on April 18—a sharp improvement from the 20.2% reported on March 21—and essentially matching its best level of the year.

Gallup classifies Americans as underemployed if they are unemployed or are working part time but wanting full-time work. The decline in underemployment to 19.2% reflects a decrease in both components, with unemployment at 9.9% and those working part time but wanting full-time work at 9.3%. The highs for these measures since Gallup began tracking in January are 11.3% and 10.0%, respectively. Still, despite signs that the job market is improving, the underemployed in April became no more hopeful (39%) that they

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would find work or move from part-time to full-time in the next four weeks. Job Creation Best Since 2008 Gallup’s Job Creation Index (not seasonally adjusted) provides additional confirmation of the improving job situation, hitting +5 for the week of April 12-18—its best level of the year and its highest since November 2008. The 27% of American workers last week who said their companies are hiring matches the high for the year, while the 22% who reported that their companies are letting people go marks a new 2010 low.

The current job market situation is an improvement over last year at this time, when 25% of companies were hiring and 26% were letting people go. Still, it remains far worse than conditions in midApril 2008, when 38% were hiring and 15% were firing. Consumer Spending Ticks Higher One benefit of more Americans having full-time work is they have more money to spend. Americans’ self-reported spending increased 15% last week compared to the same week a year ago, averaging $70 or more per day for only the second time this year—and nearly matching the $72-per-day average during a similar mid-month paycheck week in March.

of gas prices that are higher today than they were a year ago. The surging stock market and stabilizing housing prices are likely another part of the explanation, as are an improvement in jobs and economic confidence. Economic Confidence Consumers are as optimistic about the economy in mid-April as they have been all year. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index for the week ending April 18 is -23, maintaining the more positive readings of the previous couple of weeks.

The most recent economic confidence levels, however, are not the lowest since the beginning of the recession. Gallup measured similar levels in the -20 to -23 range in late December and early January, and in August and September of last year. In both instances, confidence fell in the ensuing weeks. More generally, all of these economic confidence readings represent marked improvement from the “dark days” of 2008 and early 2009, when the Economic Confidence Index was routinely in the -50 range, with occasional more negative readings, including the low point of -65 (reached in October 2008). The most notable improvement in economic confidence came in the spring of 2009, when confidence increased rapidly from -58 in March to -25 in May. Since that point, as mentioned, Americans’ economic confidence levels have stayed reasonably more positive, with some up-and-down movement over the months. The recently improved confidence ratings are due in large part to Americans’ more positive assessments of the U.S. economy’s direction. At this point, 40% of Americans say the economy is getting better and 55% say it is getting worse. Although still negative, as recently as four weeks ago, the numbers were 35% getting better and 60% getting worse. Cautious Optimism

Spending continues to trail far behind where it was during the first year of the recession, with last week’s spending running 24% below the $92-per-day average during the comparable week in 2008. So far, April spending continues to run ahead of last year’s comparables despite this year’s early Easter. In part, this may be the result

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The improving picture painted by Gallup’s economic measures for the first half of April suggests the prospect of good news for American consumers, workers, and businesses. More jobs, increased spending, and increased optimism are the prescription for helping the U.S. recover from its longest recession since the Great Depression and in a way that is experienced on Main Street as well as on Wall Street. However, some caution is warranted in interpreting what are still modest signs of a nascent economic recovery. The U.S. government’s unemployment rate remains near double digits, consumer spending is barely above last year’s new normal range, and economic confidence has yet to turn net positive.

Although the economy is clearly looking stronger so far in April, when seasonal effects are taken into account and the current data are compared to those from April 2008 when the recession was just getting underway, it is clear that the recovery still has a long way to go.

in contrast, are 25% more likely to be diagnosed with depression and 21% more likely to experience daily physical pain than those without.

Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Gallup employment metrics are based on interviews with approximately 675 national adults who are part of the workforce. Results reported each day are based on a 30-day rolling average, aggregated from interviews with approximately 17,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day. The Gallup consumer spending and Economic Confidence Index results are based on random half-samples of approximately 1,000 national adults each day. Results are based on three-day rolling averages from interviews with approximately 1,500 adults; margin of error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

These results are consistent with previous Gallup findings that examined the relationship between cancer and decreased life evaluation across age groups. Implications

April 21, 2010 CANCER HISTORY LINKED TO 58% INCREASE IN DEPRESSION Cancer’s physical and mental toll greatest among young adults by Dan Witters Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data underscore the extent to which cancer relates to emotional and physical pain. Americans who report having been diagnosed with cancer experience depression and daily physical pain at a rate approaching two-thirds greater than what is found among the general population.

The measured links between cancer and physical pain do not necessarily imply that one directly causes the other, but can instead simply reflect shared experiences associated with each. Cancer treatments such as chemotherapy, radiation, and surgery, for example, can all lead to painful side effects. Direct cancer pain that is independent of treatment, however, is also common, as growing tumors apply pressure on bones, nerves, or other tissues in the body and can result in physical pain. Depression, in contrast, has long been observed in some cancer patients as fear of death, financial and end-of-life concerns, changes in body image and self-esteem, and changes in lifestyle can all be altered in cancer’s presence. The sharp increase in depression among those diagnosed with cancer, particularly for adults younger than 45, suggests a greater need for addressing this emotional health issue for these higher risk groups. Each of these scenarios may potentially have more of an impact on young adults simply due to a greater expectation of not being diagnosed with cancer at such a young age. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index does not determine the type of cancer that respondents have been diagnosed with. Survey Methods

The higher rates of depression and physical pain found among those who have a cancer diagnosis hold within every age group. However, young adults, those aged 18 to 29, appear to be the hardest hit by the side effects of cancer, with a 249% increase in depression and a 139% increase in daily physical pain among those with a cancer diagnosis relative to those without. Seniors with cancer,

Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 350,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2008, and Jan. 2-Dec. 29, 2009. For most results in this article, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum expected sampling error is no more than ±1.0 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

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of the public tends to believe the opposite—that movement has done more harm than good.

phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). The relevant survey question asked respondents: “Have you ever been told by a physician or nurse that you have any of the following, or not? How about [in rotation]: cancer, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, heart attack, depression.” “Did you experience the following feelings during a lot of the day yesterday? How about physical pain?” In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

On both questions, Americans who are most supportive of the environmental movement or its impact are the young (aged 18 to 34), those with college degrees, Democrats, and self-described liberals. While men and women are equally likely to believe the movement has done more good than harm, women are more likely to personally associate themselves with it. In recent years Gallup’s annual environment survey has documented increased political polarization over environmental issues, particularly regarding global warming. In line with Republicans’ and conservatives’ increasing skepticism about the seriousness of global warming, these groups are now significantly less likely than Demo crats, moderates, and liberals to be sympathetic toward the movement or to say it is doing more good than harm.

April 22, 2010 ON 40TH EARTH DAY, IMAGE OF GREEN MOVEMENT STILL POSITIVE Attitudes not quite as positive as they were a decade ago by Lydia Saad Nineteen percent of Americans say they are an active participant in the environmental movement, while 42% are sympathetic, but not active. The combined active/sympathetic group has declined some since Gallup first measured this in 2000, but, at 61%, it remains high. Currently, 28% are neutral and 10% are unsympathetic.

Survey Methods Current U.S. attitudes about the impact of the environmental movement show a similar level of support for it. Sixty-two percent of Americans—down from 75% in 2000—say the movement has definitely or probably done more good than harm. Just over a third

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Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,014 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 4-7, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 22, 2010 AMERICANS REMAIN DOWN ABOUT THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATIONS Slightly more likely to say their finances are getting better by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ evaluations of their current financial situations remain low, and the 41% who describe their personal financial situations as excellent or good is the lowest Gallup has measured in the past decade.

Gallup first asked Americans to rate their financial situations on the excellent/good/only fair/poor scale in August 2001, and has asked the question at least annually since then. From 2001 to 2007, a majority of Americans evaluated their finances positively, but in each of the last three years, less than 50% have. The April 6-9 poll also asked Americans whether their financial situations are getting better or getting worse. Roughly the same percentage now believes their finances are improving (39%) as declining (40%). That is a slightly more positive assessment than Gallup has found in the past two years, when Americans were more pessimistic than optimistic. Prior to 2008, Americans were typically more likely to say their finances were getting better than to say they were getting worse.

good, compared with 41% of those in middle-income households and 21% of those in lower-income households. Middle- and upper-income Americans are equally positive about the direction in which their finances are headed, while lower-income Americans are more pessimistic.

While there is a relationship between income and political party affiliation, with higher-income Americans more likely to identify as Republicans and lower-income Americans more likely to affiliate with the Democratic Party, personal finance ratings by party do not parallel the ratings by household income. Republicans and Democrats rate their current finances similarly; independents are less positive. More surprising is that Democrats are much more optimistic about the current course of their finances, with 50% saying they are getting better, compared with just 34% of Republicans and 35% of independents.

This suggests that there is a political component to how Americans rate their finances, with Democrats now more likely to be optimistic given that their party is in control of the White House. Democrats were also more optimistic last year (37% getting better and 38% getting worse, compared with 29% and 52%, respectively, among Republicans), though not to the same extent as this year. Republicans were more optimistic than Democrats about their finances in each year of the Bush administration. Bottom Line Americans became more pessimistic about their finances as the economy began to sour in 2008. Their ratings of their current financial situations have never been worse than they are today, and though their financial outlook is slightly better than it was in 2008 and 2009, it remains below the historical norm. The recovery in this latter measure is partly the result of an improved financial outlook among Democrats. Survey Methods

Predictably, higher-income Americans are much more upbeat about their current finances, with 65% rating these as excellent or

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 23, 2010 PARTY AFFILIATION GAP IN U.S. NARROWEST SINCE 2005 Democratic advantage shrinks as more independents lean to the Republican Party by Jeffrey M. Jones The advantage in public support the Democratic Party built up during the latter part of the Bush administration and the early part of the Obama administration has all but disappeared. During the first quarter of 2010, 46% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 45% identified as or leaned Republican.

The latest results, based on aggregated data from Gallup polls conducted from January to March of this year, show the closest party division since the first quarter of 2005, when the parties were tied at 46%. Democrats enjoyed double-digit advantages in party support in 11 of 12 quarters from the second quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2009. By the end of last year, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to five points (47% to 42%), and it narrowed further in the most recent quarter. The six-point rise in Republican support since the first quarter of 2009 is due entirely to a growing proportion of independents who lean to the Republican Party, rather than an increase in the percentage of Americans who identify as Republicans outright. (Gallup measures party identification by first asking Americans whether they identify as Republicans, Democrats, or independents. Those who are independent or express no party preference are then asked whether they lean more toward the Democratic or the Republican Party.) In fact, the 28% of Americans who initially identify as Republicans today is identical to the figure Gallup measured in early 2009, when the Democrats still had a double-digit advantage in support. Since then, there has been a three-point reduction in the proportion of Democratic identifiers, and a three-point decline in the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents. As the table shows, Democrats maintain an edge in initial party identification over Republicans, 32% to 28%. That advantage has 136

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also shrunk over the last year, from a 35% to 28% Democratic edge in the first quarter of 2009. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 4,095 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted from January to March 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 23, 2010 ONE IN FIVE AMERICANS FEAR JOB LOSS IN NEXT 12 MONTHS If laid off, 44% could go barely a month before experiencing significant financial hardship by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Even as Gallup’s underemployment measure shows that more people are getting full-time jobs, 21% of American workers think it is “very” or “fairly” likely that they will lose their jobs or be laid off during the next 12 months. That is nearly twice the 12% pre-recession level of 2007 and about the same as the 19% recorded in late 1982, during another deep recession.

Further reflecting today’s lack of job security, 38% of Americans employed full- or part-time say they are “not at all likely” to lose their jobs over the next year—down 19 points from April 2007, and by far the lowest level of self-professed job security Gallup has measured since 1975. Many Could Not Replace Their Current Jobs American workers are not optimistic about replacing their current jobs if they are laid off: 42% say they would be “very” (16%) or “somewhat” (26%) likely to find another job “just as good as the one [they] have now.” This is down from 64% in April 2007 and 70% in April 2001.

Commentary Today, Americans are feeling particularly vulnerable if they lose their job. Many don’t think they can replace their current job with one just as good. Also, nearly half can’t go more than a month without a paycheck before encountering significant financial hardship. This is the case even as Gallup’s Job Creation Index shows that the percentage of companies laying people off has recently declined. Evidently, the downturn in layoffs has not been good enough to make many Americans feel secure in their present jobs. Regaining personal job security is likely to take time and significant new hiring activity. Job fears raise the question of whether the modest uptick in spending seen in March and early April is sustainable. The actual “return of the consumer” may require not only that Americans see fewer layoffs, but that they also begin to feel secure again about their jobs and even their ability to get a similar new job if they are let go. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Many Would Encounter Financial Hardship Forty-four percent of employees say they could go up to a month after losing their job before experiencing significant financial hardship, and another 27% say they could last up to four months. This financial fragility is not much different than it was in April 2003 and February 2001, when 41% and 46%, respectively, said they could last up to a month. Paycheck dependency is more prevalent in the South as well as among those who have a high school education or less and those who make less than $30,000 a year.

April 26, 2010 AMERICANS’ PROJECTED RETIREMENT AGE CONTINUES TO CREEP UP Future retirees also less likely to expect to have the money to live comfortably in retirement by Frank Newport Americans’ projected retirement age has gradually increased over the past 15 years, with more than a third of non-retirees today saying they will retire after age 65, compared with 12% in 1995. This marks the first time Gallup has recorded more non-retirees saying they will retire after age 65 than before that age.

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Gallup first asked non-retired Americans “At what age do you expect to retire?” in 1995, and has asked the question every year since 2002. There has been a clear shift in retirement intentions over this period. In two 1995 polls, non-retirees were more likely to say they would retire before age 65 rather than either at 65 or after that milestone. Only 12% to 15% said they would extend their work life beyond age 65. Now, 15 years later, Americans’ retirement intentions are more dispersed. Thirty-four percent say they will retire after 65, while the percentage saying they will retire before that age has shrunk to 29%. Twenty-seven percent say they will retire at 65. Why the Shift? Many societal and economic forces may be causing this shift in retirement-age projections. The baby-boom generation is now approaching the traditional retirement age, and the expectations this large demographic group has about the nature and rewards of work may differ from the expectations of those who came before. Additionally, of course, the nation’s workforce has faced a major recession in recent years, perhaps increasing the perceived value of retaining a job, given decreasing expectations of money for retirement because of the declining value of 401(k) and other retirement accounts. Gallup’s Economy and Personal Finance surveys have included a question each year since 2002 that helps address this latter point. Currently, 46% of non-retired Americans believe they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. This is up slightly from last year but well below what Gallup measured through most of the prior decade, including 59% in 2002 through 2004 who thought they would have enough money.

ing helps older Americans stay active, mentally engaged, and fulfilled. Others could point to the positive psychological benefits of retirement—the traditional “golden” years during which Americans relax and enjoy family and leisure time. Future Gallup analysis will examine these hypotheses. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 666 non-retirees, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 26, 2010 YOUNGER VOTERS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT VOTING THIS YEAR Those under 30 skew disproportionately Democratic in their voting intentions by Frank Newport Younger voters remain less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s midterm elections than those who are older, underscoring the challenge facing the Democratic Party in its efforts to re-energize these voters, who helped President Obama win the presidency in 2008.

Those who do not expect to have enough money to live comfortably in retirement are somewhat more likely to anticipate working after age 65 than are those who expect to have enough money—although these differences are not large. Bottom Line It could be good news for the American economy if workers do follow through on their intentions, as measured in Gallup’s surveys, and continue to postpone retirement. Some economists have projected a need for additional labor to keep the economy going in the years ahead—and older workers could help fill that need. Additionally, the longer Americans work, the more they contribute and the less they drain from the Social Security and Medicare systems—good for the federal budget deficit situation. Working longer may also help Americans’ individual financials and thus, in turn, help increase overall consumer spending. The impact that working beyond traditional retirement age has on individual wellbeing is less clear. Some could argue that work-

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The fact that voters under age 50—and particularly those under 30—are less enthusiastic about voting this year is not a new phenomenon; voter turnout typically skews older. The current data, based on Gallup Daily tracking conducted April 1-25, confirm that so far, 2010 provides no exception to this traditional pattern. It thus is not surprising that President Obama and Democratic Party leaders on Monday launched an effort to stoke enthusiasm among young people and other voting groups that helped support Obama in the 2008 presidential election. Obama issued a new online video that includes this exhortation to his supporters: “It will be up to each of you to make sure that the young people, African Ameri-

cans, Latinos, and women who powered our victory in 2008 stand together once again.” Gallup Daily tracking data reinforce the value of younger voters for the Democrats, showing that 18- to 29-year-olds favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their local districts by a 12-point margin. In contrast, the Republican candidate is on top among all groups of voters aged 30 and older.

April 27, 2010 AMERICANS’ FAITH IN STOCKS AS BEST INVESTMENT PARTLY RESTORED Socioeconomic status predicts support for equities vs. traditional savings by Lydia Saad As Congress attempts to impose stiffer regulations on Wall Street to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, Americans express a greater preference for stocks or mutual funds as the best long-term financial investment than they did a year ago. Still, real estate and savings accounts/CDs continue to edge out stocks as the perceived best investment.

Bottom Line Younger voters have presented a good news-bad news scenario for Democratic candidates and campaign managers in recent elections. The good news is that younger voters disproportionately lean to Democratic candidates. The bad news is that younger voters have a historically bad track record in terms of turning out in big numbers on Election Day. The current data confirm that at this juncture, both of these patterns continue to play out in this year’s midterm elections. Democratic leaders have apparently recognized these realities, and are attempting to re-create the enthusiasm for Democrats among younger voters that was apparent in 2008. Gallup’s continuous monitoring of voting enthusiasm across the age spectrum in the months ahead will help document whether these efforts are successful. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 5,490 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 1-25, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The 22% of Americans who now say stocks or mutual funds constitute the best long-term investment is up from 15% a year ago, when the stock market was also much lower. It is similar to the 23% seen in September 2008—just prior to stock values tumbling amid the unfolding financial crisis. However, it remains a bit lower than in April 2008, and is significantly lower than in 2007. The close connection between perceptions of stocks as the best investment and the performance of the stock market is clear in the accompanying graph.

Real estate, at 50%, was the clear favorite in Gallup’s first measurement, taken in July 2002. At that time, the stock market was still ratcheting down after the bursting of the Internet dot-com bubble in 2000. But as surging home prices in the first half of the decade gave way to signs of a burst in the housing bubble by 2007, the preference for real estate fell and that for stocks swelled to 31%—the highest seen this decade.

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Upper-income and college-educated Americans tend to prefer stocks and mutual funds, while Americans with lower incomes and those with no college education favor savings accounts or CDs as the best investment.

April 27, 2010 “ENTHUSIASTIC” VOTERS PREFER GOP BY 20 POINTS IN 2010 VOTE Overall, congressional vote preferences are evenly divided by Jeffrey M. Jones Although U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their 2010 congressional election preferences, those who say they are “very enthusiastic about voting” this year show a strong preference for the Republican Party.

Bottom Line Despite the well-worn adage “buy low, sell high,” Americans’ belief about whether the stock market is the best long-term investment tends to follow price trends. It is certainly understandable that Americans’ confidence in equities was shaken last year, given the market weaknesses revealed in 2008 and 2009. But with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 11,000 in recent days, and perhaps given the government’s promise of greater oversight, that confidence appears to be rebounding. Notably, the majority of middle- and upper-income Americans favor giving the federal government new powers to regulate “Wall Street banks and financial institutions.”

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The analysis is based on interviews with more than 5,000 U.S. registered voters conducted April 1-25, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. Gallup has consistently found Republicans expressing a higher level of enthusiasm than Democrats about voting in this year’s election campaign. Theoretically, those who are enthusiastic about voting would be more likely to turn out to vote than those who are not enthusiastic. This fall, Gallup will be better able to measure the potential impact of turnout on the vote by applying its “likely voter” model to the generic ballot results. That model takes into account a more complete set of factors related to voting, including interest in the election, intention to vote, and past voting behavior. In addition to the enthusiasm divide, Gallup polling since the start of April reveals large gender and marital gaps in congressional voting preferences. Specifically, men are more likely than women to say they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today, while women would favor the Democratic candidate. Those who are currently married are more likely to support Republicans, and the unmarried are more likely to support Democrats.

There is a combined effect between gender and marriage, such that married men are decidedly Republican and unmarried women strongly Democratic. Marital status seems to be the more important of the two factors, since married men and married women prefer the Republican candidate, and unmarried men and unmarried women prefer the Democratic candidate. Both Republicans and Democrats show a high degree of party loyalty in their current congressional voting choices. Independents tilt in the Republican direction, though about one in five independents do not express a preference. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 5,490 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 1-25, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of sampling error for subgroups will be higher. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 28, 2010 INCOME, EDUCATION LEVELS COMBINE TO PREDICT HEALTH PROBLEMS Smoking responses independently related to both factors by Steve Crabtree Advocates of the new healthcare reform law touted it as a way to improve access to insurance coverage and medical care for millions of low-income Americans who are currently uninsured. The eventual result will be an expanded customer base for insurance companies, but the extent to which these new additions represent greater risk for medical claims is yet to be determined. Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data reveal that among Americans aged 30 to 64, those with lower household incomes and lower education levels are considerably more likely to say that they have health problems than their counterparts further up the socioeconomic ladder. These findings are based on an aggregate of 220,000 interviews with Americans aged 30 to 64 based on the Gallup-Healthways WellBeing Index data between April 2009 and March 2010.

Although Americans’ education and income levels are highly correlated with each other, the two factors are also independently related to respondents’ likelihood to report health problems. Within each income category, those with lower education levels are more likely to say they have problems, and within each education category, those with lower incomes are more likely to do so. The combined effect is sizeable: Those in the lowest education and income category are more than four times as likely as those in the top category for each variable to say they have health problems—48% vs. 10%, respectively. Healthy Behaviors One reason Americans in the lower socioeconomic categories more commonly report health problems may simply be that they have had less reliable access to healthcare services in the past. For example, 60% of Americans aged 30 to 64 with annual household incomes less than $24,000 say they have health insurance, vs. 95% of those with incomes of $36,000 or more. Once access among low-income Americans improves as the healthcare law is implemented, their likelihood to report health problems may decline to some extent. In terms of comparing the future likelihood of health problems across income and education levels, it’s more appropriate to examine specific health-related habits. A healthy diet and frequent exercise, two key factors in maintaining good health, are just as common among lower income and less educated Americans as among those with higher incomes and more education. Gallup asks Americans how many days in the last week they exercised for 30 minutes or more and how many days they had five or more servings of fruits and vegetables. Those 30 and older at all education and income levels report an average of about 2.5 days with exercise and about 3.5 with healthy amounts of fruits and vegetables. However, there is one important risk factor that is strongly related to education and income levels: the likelihood to smoke. Researchers have long known that the incidence of smoking is higher among Americans in lower income categories; however, the combined effect of income and education is greater than the relationship between smoking and either variable on its own. The data reveal a particularly sizeable gap in the likelihood to smoke between those who have and have not graduated from college. Among those in the lowest income category, for example, the percentage of smokers is fairly consistent across all age categories below college graduate, but drops sharply among those who do have a college degree. This finding doesn’t necessarily imply that the college experience itself makes Americans less likely to be smokers. College attendance may be a proxy for different aspects

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April 28, 2010 EDUCATION TRUMPS GENDER IN PREDICTING SUPPORT FOR ABORTION College-educated adults—and especially college-educated women—most supportive by Lydia Saad Educational achievement is much more important than gender in determining support for broadly legal abortion, with college-educated adults—and especially college-educated women—the most supportive. This has been the case since the 1970s.

of respondents’ lives such as different socialization experiences in youth or different types of jobs in adulthood. Implications Insurance companies taking on millions of previously uninsured customers over the next few years will invest considerable resources in revising actuarial models to account for the changing demographic makeup of their customer base. Gallup data stress the importance of putting emphasis on smoking cessation programs in managing the risk that customers with lower incomes and less education represent. Gallup analysts have just begun to explore the association between socioeconomic variables and major health outcomes. Further results on the incidence of common health problems such as colds, flu, headaches, and physical pain can be found in a recent study supervised by Gallup Senior Scientists Arthur Stone and Jim Harter, published in the Archives of Internal Medicine. Such research promises to offer a more nuanced understanding of how targeted health initiatives can improve the wellbeing of Americans in all walks of life. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of more than 220,000 national adults, aged 30 and older, conducted between April 1, 2009, and March 31, 2010, as part of the GallupHealthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup’s long-term abortion question—instituted two years after the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling gave sweeping constitutional protection to abortion—asks Americans to say whether they believe abortion should be “legal under any circumstances,” “legal only under certain circumstances,” or “illegal in all circumstances.” The current analysis is based on Gallup trends grouped into six time periods between 1975 and 2009. Over the past three decades, men and women have consistently held similar views about the extent to which abortion should be legal. Typically, majorities of both sexes have said abortion should be “legal only under certain circumstances.” Smaller percentages have believed it should be either legal under any circumstances or illegal in all circumstances—with those in favor of legality consistently the larger group. Support for legal abortion “under any circumstances” reached its peak among both sexes in the early 1990s but has since receded some.

Women have in recent years been more likely than men to hold the two absolute positions on abortion—saying it should be either legal under any circumstances or illegal in all circumstances—but these differences are not large. College Women Most Supportive of Legal Abortion Education is a strong correlate of support for abortion rights among both genders, with college graduates the most likely to say abortion

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Overall, women are a bit more likely than men to hold one of the more absolute views on abortion: that it should be either legal under any circumstances or illegal in all circumstances. However, majorities of both genders take the middle “legal only under certain circumstances” position. Within various age and partisan categories, men and women are mostly similar in their views. Only with respect to education, specifically those with a college education, is there a sizable gender gap. College-educated women are significantly more likely than college-educated men to believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances. should be legal in any circumstances. However, in line with the broader societal trend, support among college graduates has fallen markedly since the early 1990s. These educational differences and trends are evident among both men and women. Aside from the broader pattern, however, support for legal abortion in all circumstances among female college graduates has been about 10 percentage points greater than that among male college graduates. The gender gaps in views of adults who have lower education levels tend to be much smaller.

Survey Methods The trends reported here are based on averages of Gallup’s abortion surveys, from 1975 through 2009, by decade and half-decade. The individual surveys are based on interviews with a random sample of approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older. Aggregated sample sizes range from 4,078 for the period from 1980 to 1989 to 12,115 for 2000-2004. Aggregate sample sizes for men and women include at least 2,027 cases. For results based on this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results based on education and age subgroups within gender have higher margins of error depending on sample size. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 29, 2010 AMERICANS SHIFT EXPECTATIONS ABOUT RETIREMENT FUNDING 401(k)/IRA accounts down but still top list; Social Security moves up by Jeffrey M. Jones Non-retired Americans’ expectations for the financial resources they will draw on to fund their retirement have changed since 2007. Most notably, more expect to rely heavily on Social Security and fewer expect 401(k)s or IRAs, home equity, and pension plans to be major funding sources.

Gallup’s earlier reports detailing long-term demographic trends found that attitudes have somewhat converged over time among different age groups (with the exception of seniors, who remain the least supportive of legal abortion) but have grown more polarized by party (with Democrats becoming more accepting of legal abortion and Republicans less accepting). These age and partisan patterns are seen about equally among men and women. Bottom Line Gallup’s abortion polling since the mid-1970s finds few remarkable distinctions between men’s and women’s views on the legality of abortion.

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Overall, non-retirees still most commonly say IRAs and 401(k)s will be a major source of retirement income (45%), followed by Social Security (34%), work-sponsored pension plans (23%), saving accounts or CDs (22%), home equity (20%), and individual stock investments (20%). The 34% of non-retirees who say Social Security will be a major source of income in their retirement is the highest Gallup has measured since 2001, the first year the annual Gallup Economy and Personal Finance survey was conducted. Prior to 2008, between 25% and 29% of non-retired Americans expected Social Security to be a major source of retirement funding, but that number has been at or above 30% in each of the last three years.

That change coincides with declining stock and home values during the recent economic slump. The current survey also marks new lows in the percentage of non-retirees saying home equity (20%) and pension plans (23%) will be major sources of their retirement income. Last year’s survey marked the low point (42%) in the expectation that 401(k)s or IRAs would be a major source of funding; the number is somewhat better this year (45%) as the stock market is up compared with a year ago. The drop since 2007 in the percentage of non-retirees expecting to rely on pension plans is partly a result of the longer-term trend of fewer companies offering pensions at all. However, it also reflects some private- and public-sector employers’ more recent efforts to trim the size of pensions that future or current retirees receive. As Gallup has reported, non-retirees’ expectations for funding their retirement differ from current retirees’ experience. Among those who are retired, Social Security is easily the most common source of funds, with 54% saying it is a major source of income. Pension plans are the next most common at 37%, followed by 401(k)s and IRAs (22%), and home equity (20%).

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 666 non-retirees, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 354 retirees, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 29, 2010 MORE AMERICANS FAVOR THAN OPPOSE ARIZONA IMMIGRATION LAW Among those who have heard of law, 51% favor and 39% oppose it by Jeffrey M. Jones More than three-quarters of Americans have heard about the state of Arizona’s new immigration law, and of these, 51% say they favor it and 39% oppose it.

These results are based on a new Gallup poll conducted April 27-28, in the days after Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s signing the bill into law. The law makes it a state crime for illegal immigrants to be in the country, and allows Arizona law enforcement officials to detain those suspected of being in the country illegally unless they can prove otherwise. The law has sparked protests in Arizona and other parts of the U.S., and calls for economic boycotts of the state. Nationally, 62% of Republicans support the law (including 75% of Republicans who have heard about it). Democrats are more likely to oppose (45%) than favor (27%) the law, and a majority of Democrats familiar with the law (56%) oppose it. Independents are somewhat more likely to favor (37%) than oppose (29%) the law, with half of those who have heard about it in favor. A total of 78% of Americans say they have heard or read something about the law, with more than half reporting a great deal (24%) or fair amount (34%) of exposure. These figures are similar by party group.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

April 30, 2010 REPUBLICANS PRIORITIZE IMMIGRATION; DEMOCRATS, FINANCIAL REFORM Americans split more evenly; give energy legislation lowest priority overall by Frank Newport When asked which of three current legislative initiatives in Congress should be the priority, Americans who identify as Democrats favor a focus on financial reform, while independents and Republicans choose immigration. All three political groups give a new energy bill low priority.

Regardless of their level of self-reported familiarity with the Arizona law, Americans are generally more supportive of than opposed to it. Note that the poll did not attempt to measure actual knowledge about the law or describe the various provisions of the law to respondents.

Bottom Line Most Americans have heard about Arizona’s tough new immigration law, and they generally support it. The law was passed partly in response to a lack of federal action on the issue. Since the Arizona bill became law, congressional Democrats have considered taking up the issue in the coming weeks, though this initial read on public opinion toward the Arizona law suggests Americans may not necessarily back an attempt to supersede or otherwise undermine it.

This question was included in Gallup Daily tracking April 27-28, at a time of considerable disagreement in Washington, D.C., over the current legislative agenda. While debate continues on a financial overhaul bill, Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid and other Democratic senators have introduced the outlines of new immigration legislation. Meanwhile, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has reacted negatively to an apparent sidelining of the energy and climate change bill he has been working on with Democratic Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts and independent Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Overall, Americans are roughly split between giving priority to financial overhaul legislation and giving it to immigration legislation, 39% to 36%, respectively. About one in five Americans would give priority to legislation dealing with energy, climate change, and the environment.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,013 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 27-28, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

Relation to Views on Arizona Law Immigration has resurfaced as a hot issue in recent days after new and controversial immigration legislation has become law in the state

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of Arizona. The majority of those in the current poll who are aware of and favor the Arizona law say immigration legislation should be the highest priority for Congress. On the other hand, a much smaller 25% of those who oppose the Arizona legislation say Congress should give immigration the highest priority. These data suggest that those who prioritize immigration legislation at the national level may have in mind laws that are similar to the one enacted in Arizona. Or it may be that those who are concerned about illegal immigration as a national problem favor any legislation— at both the state and national levels—that deals with the issue.

because of a need to appeal to Hispanic voters in his home state of Nevada this election year. Whatever Reid’s reasons, however, the data show that rank-and-file Republicans across the country are more likely to give high priority to immigration legislation than are Democrats, who would rather have Congress focus first on financial overhaul legislation. It is not clear, of course, whether the type of immigration legislation Reid and other Democrats propose is exactly what Republicans have in mind.

Bottom Line

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,013 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 27-28, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The questions were asked of a random half sample of respondents on the Gallup Daily tracking survey for two nights. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Legislators looking to the public for guidance on prioritizing legislation will not find crystal clear direction. Americans give roughly equal priority to financial reform and immigration legislation. It is clear, however, that despite efforts to move energy and climatechange legislation forward, Americans at this point give it the lowest priority—consistent with previous Gallup research showing that Americans are less worried about the environment than they have been previously. Politically, these new data show how complex legislative prioritization can become. Some observers have noted that Sen. Reid is pushing immigration legislation onto the Senate’s front burner

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Survey Methods

prices in that part of the nation. Concern is greater among conservatives than among liberals or moderates, perhaps because, compared with the other groups, conservatives are less likely to say they enjoy spending (vs. saving) and, therefore, they may be more price sensitive; and more Republicans and independents than Democrats are very concerned, given current political predispositions. Few Escape Financial Concerns

May 03, 2010 INFLATION WORRIES PERMEATE U.S. More than half (55%) say they are “very concerned” inflation will climb

With today’s nearly double-digit unemployment rate, it is not surprising that among their other concerns, 68% of Americans are very concerned that unemployment will remain high. Largely consistent with fears of higher inflation, 45% are very concerned that interest rates will climb. Even after the sharp recovery on Wall Street over the past year, 35% are very concerned that the stock market will fall—possibly reflecting, at least in part, the percentage of Americans who are significant investors in the stock market.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Although the Federal Open Market Committee said “inflation is likely to be subdued for some time” after its meeting last Wednesday, 55% of Americans in an April 8-11 Gallup poll are “very concerned” inflation will climb, and another 29% are “somewhat concerned.” This level of concern about inflation also seems to reflect consumer inflation expectations contradictory to the FOMC’s assertion that “longer-term inflation expectations [are] stable.”

Commentary

A higher percentage of lower-income than of upper-income Americans are “very concerned” about inflation, likely resulting from lower-income families’ tendency to spend a much larger proportion of their income on the basic necessities experiencing the most pronounced price increases—food and energy. More Westerners than Easterners are very concerned, possibly reflecting the higher gas

The FOMC statement last week suggests that “the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time,” and goes on to note that “substantial resource slack [is] continuing to restrain cost pressures.” Gallup’s economic data support the idea of a moderate economic recovery. Gallup’s underemployment data also help explain why so many are concerned that unemployment will remain high. However, it is not clear that slack in the U.S. economy is going to keep prices low. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported two weeks ago that producer prices increased by 6.1% in March on a year-over-year basis. Gas prices, a component of producer prices, are up 80 cents per gallon, or 39%, compared with a year ago. While the FOMC might point to the relative stability of producer prices minus food and energy—these increased 0.8% in March year over year—to support its claims about inflation, Americans can’t simply exclude food and energy costs from their monthly expenses. Nor, it appears, do they exclude them from their expectations for future inflation. It is not difficult to justify keeping interest rates at historic lows, given 19% underemployment and subdued inflation. However, if Americans’ inflation fears are correct, then the Federal Reserve may face some increasingly difficult policy decisions. Flooding the economy with money when inflation is surging is a much easier decision politically than economically. Increasing interest rates as midterm elections approach is just the reverse. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on

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the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 03, 2010 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTPACES PRIVATE SECTOR IN JOB CREATION Both see more hiring than firing; the opposite is true in state and local governments by Frank Newport Gallup’s Job Creation Index for April reveals significantly more hiring within the federal government than in the private sector. Both show a substantially more positive picture than state and local governments, where firing far eclipses hiring.

Gallup’s Job Creation Index is based on the percentage of American workers who say their employers are hiring minus the percentage who say their employers are letting workers go. The overall Index value for American workers in April tilts positive, with 27% of workers saying their places of employment are hiring, and 22% saying their employers are letting people go—resulting in an overall +5 Job Creation Index. These overall numbers, however, mask significantly different patterns across employment sectors. Based on these reports from workers, the federal government is a growth industry, while employment at state and local governments is shrinking. By almost a 2-to-1 margin, federal employees say their employer is hiring rather than firing, giving the federal government a relatively robust +18 Job Creation Index for April. (Federal workers make up about 5% of the sample of workers Gallup interviewed in April.) This contrasts with Index values of -28 among state and -26 among local government workers (about 7% and 5% of Gallup’s workforce sample, respectively). The Job Creation Index among private-sector and other non-government workers is +9.

ing budgetary issues resulting from recessionary pressures on the tax (and other) revenue that funds these governments. Hiring at the federal level has apparently to date escaped these same fiscal pressures. Indeed, the federal government appears to be significantly outpacing the private sector in terms of the relative number of jobs created. How long this pattern will continue is difficult to project. The federal budget deficit is likely to become a prominent element of political debate in the months and years ahead, thus opening up the possibility of increased employment pressures at the federal level. At the moment, however, the federal government is one of the brightest spots in the nation’s hiring picture. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 16,171 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 1-30, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of sampling error for subgroups of the worker population will be proportionately larger. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 04, 2010 GALLUP: UNDEREMPLOYMENT FALLS TO 18.9% IN APRIL Unemployment falls to 9.7%; part-time workers wanting full-time, to 9.2% by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist More than 2 million Americans became fully employed in April, as Gallup’s “underemployment” rate fell 1.4 points to 18.9%—the lowest level for this new measure since Gallup began tracking it in December 2009. While part of this improvement is the result of the normal pickup in hiring at this time of year—and the addition of temporary census workers—it is good news both for those becoming fully employed and for the economy as a whole.

Bottom Line Gallup’s Job Creation Index clearly indicates that state and local governments are in the midst of significant downsizing, no doubt reflect-

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Gallup’s underemployment measure includes both the unemployed and those working part-time but wanting full-time work. It is

based on more than 17,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period and reported daily. Gallup results are not seasonally adjusted and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks. Fewer Are Unemployed or Part-Time Wanting Full-Time Work April saw improvements in both components of the underemployment rate. Gallup’s unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) declined to 9.7% in April from 10.4% in March, while the percentage of those working part-time who want full-time work fell to 9.2% from 9.9%.

Importantly, Gallup’s measure is also more timely than the measure the government reports. Friday’s jobs report will reflect job conditions as of mid-April, while Gallup’s includes results up to the last day of the month. Regardless, Friday’s jobs report is likely to show that the nation has a long way to go before it can make significant progress in changing the current job market psychology—increasing the hope of finding a job while simultaneously reducing the fear of losing one. Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Gallup’s underemployment results are based on more than 17,000 telephone interviews completed on a 30-day rolling basis. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Fewer Underemployed, but No Increase in Hope Despite the brighter jobs picture, Americans who remain underemployed are no more hopeful now that they will soon find work than they have been at any time this year. Sixty percent of the underemployed say they are not hopeful of finding a job in the next four weeks. This continued pessimism is consistent with many Americans’ fears that they may lose their current jobs over the next 12 months.

May 04, 2010 AMERICANS VALUE BOTH ASPECTS OF IMMIGRATION REFORM Strengthening the border and dealing with illegals already here both have appeal by Lydia Saad

Looking Ahead to Friday’s Unemployment Report

As President Obama and Congress consider whether and how to go forward with comprehensive immigration reform in an election year, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans placing about equal importance on the two sides of the immigration-policy coin. Roughly 4 in 10 Americans rate “controlling U.S. borders to halt the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S.” as extremely important for the government to deal with this year. Nearly as many, 36%, say “developing a plan to deal with the large number of illegal immigrants who are already living in the U.S.” is extremely important. Altogether, two-thirds say each goal is either extremely or very important.

On Friday, the government is likely to report a more modest improvement in job market conditions than is reflected by Gallup’s underemployment measure. In part, this results from seasonal adjustments. Gallup does not seasonally adjust its results, preferring to reflect actual results without adjustments. Because hiring tends to increase in April, seasonal adjustments will tend to moderate any improvement in the government’s report. Further, Gallup’s underemployment rate is a broader measure of job market conditions. For example, underemployment measures the improvement in market conditions that takes place as employers leverage their existing employees so they become fully employed or employed to capacity.

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Additionally, when asked to say which of the two goals the U.S. government should have as its main focus, Americans are generally divided, although the slight edge goes to halting the flow of illegal immigrants. The question did not ask about specific approaches that could be used to deal with immigrants now in the U.S., and thus, in respondents’ minds it could involve anything ranging from full amnesty to deportation, or any combination thereof. However, the preferences by party and ideology show that Democrats and liberals generally favor first dealing with immigrants who are already here, whereas Republicans and conservatives favor border control.

Senate Democrats who are reportedly pressing for quick action on comprehensive immigration reform. However, public opinion on the issue might not align as well with the policies these Democrats have in mind. While Americans seem to favor addressing both parts of the problem, the slight majority believe controlling the border to prevent further illegal immigration ought to be the priority—rather than developing policies to deal with immigrants already here. (Indeed, Gallup recently found more public support than opposition for Arizona’s tough new law directed at illegal immigrants.) Furthermore, Americans express more concern about the risks illegal immigration poses to the U.S. than about the potential problems that could ensue from stiffer immigration laws. Survey Methods

These views are fairly uniform by region of the country, with those in the West neither more nor less likely than those in other regions to consider each aspect of immigration reform extremely important, or to name it as a priority. Sympathy Has Its Limits By 64% to 34%, more Americans say they are sympathetic than unsympathetic toward illegal immigrants in the United States. Still, Americans are more likely to be “very concerned” about the potential detriment to the country resulting from illegal immigrants’ presence in the U.S. than they are about the potential harm that stricter new immigration laws would do to illegal immigrants themselves, or to Hispanics, generally. Residents of the West and, to a lesser degree, the South, are more pro-immigrant in their reactions to the various potential consequences of illegal immigration and immigration reform than are those in the East and Midwest. The former are less likely to be concerned about illegal immigrants’ having a negative impact on U.S. institutions or the economy, and they are more likely to be concerned that stricter laws would negatively affect illegal residents and Hispanics, generally. Bottom Line Recent Gallup polling found nearly as many Americans rating immigration reform as an important national priority as said this about financial reform for Wall Street. That aligns with the wishes of some

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Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,049 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 1-2, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 05, 2010 FEW AMERICANS OPPOSE NATIONAL DAY OF PRAYER Fifty-seven percent in favor; nearly 4 in 10 say it does not matter to them by Jeffrey M. Jones Most Americans either support or are not bothered by the annual National Day of Prayer, which President Obama proclaimed will be celebrated on May 6 this year. Those who say religion is important in their lives widely support the day, while the majority of those who say religion is not important say it doesn’t matter to them, rather than opposing it outright.

This year’s commemoration has involved some controversy as the National Day of Prayer Task Force, a private group organizing thousands of events across the country, has made it a goal to promote and publicize Christian prayer specifically. Americans generally endorse the task force’s goal, as 62% say promoting Christian prayer should be a major goal of the events while 36% disagree. Opinions on this matter diverge between religious and nonreligious Americans.

These results are based on a May 1-2 USA Today/Gallup poll. They are generally consistent with the religious and Christian orientation of Americans. The poll finds Americans in widespread agreement that prayers are heard and responded to—83% say there is a God who answers prayers, while 9% believe there is a God who does not answer prayers and 5% believe no God exists. Americans’ support for a National Day of Prayer may also stem from their belief that prayer can be effective for people regardless of what they believe in or how often they engage in the activity. Specifically, a combined 75% reject the notion that prayer is effective only if done regularly. While those who say religion is important to them are somewhat more likely to believe that only regular prayer is effective, the vast majority of this group still believes this is not the case. Additionally, 80% of Americans disagree with the idea that prayer works only for those who hold certain religious beliefs. This view is shared about equally by those who say religion is important and those who say it is not important in their lives, but is somewhat at odds with Americans’ endorsing the promotion of Christian prayer as a major goal of National Day of Prayer events. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,049 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 1-2, 2010.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the 497 national adults in the random “Form C” half sample and the 552 national adults in the random “Form D” half sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 06, 2010 U.S. JOB CREATION BEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2008 Job market conditions improved in all regions but the West, which was unchanged by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Job Creation Index finds current job market conditions nationwide to be the best they have been since November 2008. Nationally, the Job Creation Index for April—based on 16,171 U.S. employees’ self-reports of hiring and firing activity at their workplaces—shows that employees’ perceptions improved to +5— up 3 points from March, and 10 points better than a year ago. Despite its improvement in 2010, the Job Creation Index remains 17 points below its April 2008 level, meaning that job market conditions have a long way to go before they return to where they were early in the recession.

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this region’s job situation, although the recent oil-spill debacle may be detrimental in the months ahead. Midwest: Second Best Hiring in the Midwest increased to 26% and firing fell to 21%, improving the hiring-firing gap to 5 points in April. Improvements in the manufacturing sector have produced a growing job market in the Midwest, with the gap improving 5 points since January and 10 points since April 2009. East: Improving Hiring and Firing Have Both Improved Twenty-seven percent of U.S. workers report that their companies are hiring, representing a steady, 4-point increase since January, and a similar increase over April 2009. However, hiring remains 11 points below where it was in April 2008. Twenty-two percent say their companies are letting people go—down 2 points from January and 6 points from April of last year—but 6 points higher than April 2008’s 16%.

With 26% of employers hiring and 23% firing, April job conditions in the East are slightly worse than those in the Midwest. Improvements on Wall Street and in the financial sector overall have likely contributed to better job market conditions—with the hiring-firing difference up by 10 points from April 2009, but still trailing that of April 2008 by 17 points. West: Leveling Off Hiring and firing leveled off in the West during April, at 24% each. This follows sharp improvements in February and March that leave the hiring-firing difference 11 points better than in April 2009. Manufacturing and exports are helping, as is a modest improvement in housing conditions in some markets. Commentary

Job market conditions are improving in all regions with the exception of the West, which appears to be consolidating recent gains.

Gallup’s Job Creation Index suggests that layoffs were down across the U.S. in April, consistent with Wednesday’s Challenger report. The Index also shows a modest improvement in hiring, consistent with Wednesday’s ADP report. Further, April’s improvement in the Index tends to amplify the positive picture provided by the April improvement in Gallup’s underemployment measure. While much of today’s job creation may be seasonal—and therefore not reflected in the government’s April unemployment report to be released Friday—any improvement in job market conditions benefits not only those getting jobs but also the nascent economic recovery. On the other hand, hiring continues to trail far behind where it was two years ago at the outset of the recession, reflecting the huge challenge involved in getting people back to work. Regardless, Gallup’s underemployment and job creation data suggest that new jobs are being created—something everyone looking for a job in today’s tough job market should keep in mind. Survey Methods

South: Remains the Best Job Market Job conditions in the South remain the best of any region, with hiring reaching 30% and firing declining to 21%—this 9-point difference is better than the 1 point of a year ago, but far below the 26-point difference in April 2008. Continued high oil prices benefit

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For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup consumer spending results are based on random half-samples of approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day. Regional results for March are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews totaling more than 3,000 in each region. For each total regional sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 07, 2010 AMERICANS NO LESS WORRIED ABOUT HEALTHCARE COSTS Similarly, no drop in Americans’ worries about several other financial issues by Frank Newport Despite the passage of highly publicized healthcare legislation into law in March, Americans are no less concerned about paying the costs of a serious illness or accident, or normal healthcare costs, than they were last year. Sixty-one percent are worried about the former, and 48% are worried about the latter.

from 52% worry in 2004 to 66% now; concern over not being able to maintain one’s standard of living has risen from 35% in 2002 to 54% today.

Bottom Line

Most of the actual impact of the comprehensive healthcare legislation will not be felt for months or years, with few specific shortterm changes in the nation’s healthcare system. Gallup research conducted after the bill’s passage showed that the majority of Americans were not expecting the law to improve their personal healthcare cost situations, even in the long term. Still, the high visibility of the new law—and the fact that a substantial minority of Americans favored its passage—might have been expected to tilt Americans’ worries or concerns about healthcare-related financial matters in at least a marginally more positive direction. But Gallup finds no such shift to date. The healthcare issues constitute two of eight financial matters Gallup asked about in its annual Economy and Finance survey. Americans are most concerned about having enough money for retirement, followed by concern about unexpected medical costs, maintaining one’s standard of living, and paying normal medical costs. Americans became relatively more confident in the U.S. economy at about this time last year, but neither Gallup’s April 2009 survey nor the current April 2010 survey reflects any evidence of a concomitant decrease in worry about these eight financial matters. From a longer-term perspective, Americans’ concerns about the financial issues tested by Gallup each year since 2001 rose during the middle of the last decade, and have remained high since that time. Concern over retirement, at the top of list of concerns today, has gone

One of the major objectives of the new healthcare bill was to address healthcare costs in the U.S., as reflected in the bill’s official name, “Affordable Healthcare for America Act.” Proponents of the bill certainly may have expected that over time, Americans would become less worried about healthcare costs as a result of the legislation. In the short term, that has not happened. More generally, the lack of improvement on any of the eight financial concerns tested in this research comes despite positive signs on the economic front. Gallup’s economic tracking data find that American workers see more hiring at their places of employment, and that overall underemployment across the country has fallen. Economic confidence is also higher now than it was in the depths of the recession in late 2008 and early 2009. Nonetheless, there has been only a modest increase in Gallup’s measure of consumer spending—which may reflect the finding that Americans remain as concerned about a number of personal financial issues as they have been over the last several years. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,020 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 8-11, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

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In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Working Women Coping Despite Time Pressures Perhaps speaking to their coping skills, working mothers are slightly more likely than other workers to say they experienced a lot of stress “yesterday.” Additionally, they are as likely as working women without children to rate their current lives as 8, 9, or 10 on a 10-point life satisfaction scale. Working women, in general, are slightly more positive about their lives than are working men.

May 07, 2010 DESPITE LESS TIME AND REST, WORKING MOMS MANAGING WELL Among parents of young children, 41% of mothers lack time vs. 28% of fathers by Lydia Saad Among U.S. workers aged 18 to 60, women with children younger than 18 at home are more likely than men with children at home and women without children at home to say they lack the time and rest they need. Time and rest deficits are most common among mothers of young children.

Additionally, working mothers express high satisfaction with their paid job (88%). This is comparable to the satisfaction rates seen among working women without children, and it is similar to working men’s rates regardless of their parental status.

Key findings: • Of working mothers with children younger than age five, 41% told Gallup they didn’t have enough time to do what they needed to do “yesterday,” compared with 34% of working mothers with older children and 28% of working women with no children younger than 18. • No more than 28% of working men, regardless of their parental status, said they were short on time. In fact, the percentage of working men with young children who report lacking time and rest is identical to that among women without children. • Working mothers are five percentage points more likely than working women without minor-aged children to say they do not feel well-rested (36% vs. 31%). • The lack of rest gap increases to nine points when comparing working mothers of infants and toddlers to working women without minor children (40% vs. 31%). These findings are based on more than 27,000 interviews with Americans aged 18 to 60 from January through March 2010, conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The sample includes 8,972 working women, and 3,940 working women with minor children in the household. According to Gallup polling, nearly half of the U.S. adult workforce aged 60 and younger is composed of women, and approximately half of these women have a minor-aged child at home. Seventeen percent have an infant or toddler.

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Bottom Line Working mothers—and particularly mothers of young children— report more difficulty getting the time and rest they need than do other working women and men. While that’s not an enviable position to be in, these mothers appear to manage their lives (or, perhaps their expectations) well enough to keep their stress levels roughly in line with their coworkers. And, when they add up the pluses and minuses, working mothers are as likely as others to be highly positive about their life overall. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 27,016 national adults, aged 18 to 60, conducted Jan. 2-March 31, 2010, as part of GallupHealthways Well-Being Index Daily tracking. The aggregated data set includes interviews with 8,972 women who work full or part time, and 11,311 working men. The subsample sizes for working women with children are 3,940 for all working women with a child under 18, 1,206 for those whose youngest child is up to four years old, and 2,720 for those whose youngest child is between 5 and 17 years. For results based on the total sample of working mothers, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling

error is ±2 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples will have higher associated margins of error. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gender, Race, and Ethnicity Not Important Factors May 07, 2010 NO MANDATE FOR PROTESTANT JUSTICE; 42% WANT CONSERVATIVE PICK Americans also give no strong mandate for a female, Hispanic, or black justice by Frank Newport The majority of Americans say it doesn’t matter to them whether President Obama nominates a Protestant to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, the only Protestant now on the court. As has been the case with previous vacancies, a majority of Americans say the same about a potential minority or female nominee.

The 24% of Americans who say it is essential or a good idea that the next justice be a woman is slightly lower than the 32% who responded in similar fashion in a Gallup poll conducted last May— before Obama announced Sotomayor as his nominee. It is possible that the slight decrease in sentiment in favor of a female nominee reflects the fact that with Sotomayor’s confirmation, the court now includes two female justices. Thirty percent of women say it is essential or a good idea for the next Supreme Court justice to be a woman, compared to 19% of men; both percentages are down from last year. Seventy-six percent of Americans say it doesn’t matter to them whether Obama nominates a Hispanic, up from 68% last May. While this increase in indifference to the possibility of a Hispanic nominee may reflect the fact that Sotomayor’s appointment gave the court its first-ever Hispanic justice, Americans have also this year become less likely to say it matters to them whether the next nominee is black. Americans Prefer a Nominee Who Would Tilt the Court More Conservative

Justice Stevens announced his resignation from the court last month, and Obama is widely expected to announce his nominee to replace Stevens in the next several days. As is typically the case, there has been speculation about how a new justice would affect the composition of the court. At the moment, the court includes two female justices (Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor), one Hispanic (Sotomayor), and one black (Clarence Thomas). With Stevens’ departure, all of the eight remaining justices are Catholic or Jewish, fueling a call from some quarters for the appointment of a Protestant—the majority religious group in America.

Justice Stevens has been one of the Supreme Court’s more reliable liberal votes. Given Obama’s political leanings, it is likely that he will select a left-leaning replacement who would essentially keep the ideological composition of the court intact. Americans, however, would prefer a new Supreme Court justice who makes the court more conservative (42%) over one who would make the Court more liberal (27%). Gallup found essentially the same result last May prior to Obama’s nomination of Sotomayor to replace David Souter.

No Protestants on the Court? Respondents in Gallup’s May 3-6 survey were reminded that when Justice Stevens resigns, “none of the eight remaining Supreme Court justices will be of a Protestant religion.” Even with this direct statement, only 7% of those interviewed said it was essential that the new justice be a Protestant, while another 22% said it was a good idea, but not essential, and 66% said it didn’t matter. Sentiment in favor of Obama’s appointing a Protestant is higher among Protestants than among Americans who identify with another religious faith or have no religious identity at all. Four out of 10 Protestants say it is essential (10%) or a good idea (30%) that the next justice be a Protestant.

This tilt in preference for a more conservative makeup of the new court reflects the general balance in self-reported ideology in America. So far this year, 42% of those interviewed in Gallup surveys have

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identified themselves as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. Implications Politico reported Friday that President Obama will announce Solicitor General Elena Kagan as his nominee around the beginning of next week. Kagan is a woman, is not a Protestant, and is neither Hispanic nor black. As was the case a year ago, it appears that none of these demographic characteristics will matter to Americans if Kagan is in fact the nominee. However, her political orientation would most likely not fit with the plurality of Americans’ wishes to move the court in a more conservative direction. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

• His first-year ratings were the most polarized for a president in Gallup history, with an average 65-point gap between Republicans and Democrats. Obama’s approval ratings have become slightly more polarized thus far in his second year in office, with an average 69-point gap between Democrats (83%) and Republicans (14%) since late January. • Obama’s approval ratings among non-Hispanic whites slid below the majority level in July 2009, and have not returned to that mark, generally hovering around 40% since mid-November. Meanwhile, his approval ratings among blacks have been stable throughout his presidency, right around 90%. • Though the latest 58% weekly approval average among 18- to 29-year-olds is among the lowest Obama has registered to date, it remains his highest current rating among the four age groups and is significantly better than his rating among senior citizens. Older Americans last gave Obama an approval rating above 50% last July. The gap in ratings between young adults and senior citizens has averaged 16 points during Obama’s presidency. More broadly, Obama’s 50% approval average among all Americans for the week ending May 9 continues an extended run of stable ratings for him. Since mid-November, Obama’s approval ratings have narrowly ranged between 47% and 51%.

May 11, 2010 OBAMA APPROVAL CONTINUES TO SHOW PARTY, AGE, RACE GAPS Overall ratings remain stable near 50% by Jeffrey M. Jones President Barack Obama’s approval ratings remain polarized by political party and race, and continue to show a significant gap between younger and older Americans.

Thus, little Obama has done in recent months—including his work to help pass landmark healthcare legislation—and little that has happened recently on his watch have caused a significant, lasting shift in the way Americans evaluate the job he is doing as president. Although his second-year ratings have been highly stable, he is on pace to follow most other presidents in seeing a significant drop from his first-year to his second-year average. Obama averaged 57% approval his first year in office—mainly because his job approval scores during the initial months of his presidency were in the 60% range—and has averaged 49% thus far in his second year. Explore Obama’s approval ratings in-depth and compare to past presidents in the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center. Survey Methods

These party, race, and age gaps have been apparent throughout Obama’s presidency.

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Results are based on telephone interviews with 3,578 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-9, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 11, 2010 INITIAL REACTION: 40% POSITIVE TOWARD KAGAN NOMINATION Excellent/Good ratings below average for recent court nominees by Jeffrey M. Jones A Gallup immediate-reaction poll to President Barack Obama’s nomination of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court finds 40% of Americans rating the choice as “excellent” or “good,” and 14% rating it as “poor.” Overall, Kagan’s ratings are similar to those for Samuel Alito and Harriet Miers, but not as positive as those for Sonia Sotomayor and John Roberts.

men (43%) and women (44%) gave similar excellent or good ratings in 2005 to Bush’s choice of Miers, who later withdrew her nomination before a confirmation vote took place. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 10, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

The Gallup poll was conducted May 10, after Obama’s announcement of Kagan as his choice to fill the seat of retiring Justice John Paul Stevens. Gallup has conducted immediate-reaction polls to gauge initial public opinion for each of the last five Supreme Court nominees, dating back to George W. Bush’s choice of John Roberts in 2005. Kagan’s 40% combined excellent/good ratings are technically the lowest Gallup has measured, but this comparatively lower positive evaluation is tied to the fact that Americans are less likely to express an opinion about her (24%) than they were for the four prior nominees (with an average of 17% “no opinion”). Her “poor” rating of 14% is no worse than those of other recent high-court nominees. As would be expected for a nominee chosen by a Democratic president, Democrats rate Kagan much more positively than do independents or Republicans. Independents are, however, more positive (35% excellent/good) than negative (10% poor) about the choice, while Republicans are twice as likely to say the choice was poor as to say it was either excellent or good.

If confirmed by the Senate, Kagan would give the Supreme Court three female justices for the first time. The poll finds men (39%) and women (40%) equally likely to give the Kagan nomination a positive rating, though men are at the same time more likely than women to give it a “poor” rating. By contrast, women’s initial reaction to Sotomayor’s nomination last year was much more positive than men’s (53% to 41%). But

May 12, 2010 “JOBS” DROPS TO NO. 2 ON AMERICANS’ LIST OF TOP PROBLEMS Economy ranks No. 1, while mentions of immigration are up sharply by Lydia Saad After two months as the clear No. 1 perceived problem facing the country, unemployment/jobs dipped to No. 2 in May, while “the economy” in general moved back into the top position. At the same time, Americans grew more likely to name immigration (including illegal immigration) as the nation’s most important problem, moving that issue into fifth place.

Gallup measures public perceptions of the nation’s most important problem every month. The 10% citing immigration or illegal immigration in the latest poll, conducted May 3-6, is the highest Gallup has recorded in more than two years. Mentions of immigration last reached double digits in January 2008, and peaked at 19% in April 2006.

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The heightened concern about immigration comes as a new Arizona law designed to address illegal immigration has drawn nationwide attention. There is increased concern both across the country and across the political spectrum. However, increased mentions of immigration are most pronounced in the Western states, surging from 2% in April to 16% in May, as well as among Republicans and conservatives.

ing immigration as the top problem has swelled from 2% to 10%. The even steeper increases seen among Republicans and conservatives highlight a major aspect of that concern—the belief that illegal immigration needs to be curtailed. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 12, 2010 AMERICANS’ SELF-REPORTED YEAR-OVER-YEAR SPENDING UP 10% Lower- and middle-income spending up 13%; upper-income spending essentially unchanged Healthcare Still in Top Five Mentions of healthcare reached 26% last summer, as national debate over healthcare reform intensified, and registered 23% in February. Since the bill’s passage in March, concern about healthcare has subsided—down to 15% in the current poll—though it remains one of the leading public concerns. Of the top 10 “most important problems” named this month, the economy, unemployment, healthcare, government leadership, and immigration are each mentioned by at least 10% of Americans. Except for the federal budget deficit/federal debt, at 9%, all other issues in the top 10 receive fewer than 5% of mentions.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Americans’ self-reported spending rose to $66 per day in April—up 10% year over year. The impetus behind the increase was a 13% rise in middle- and lower-income spending, to $59 per day. Although high gas prices and last year’s weak recession-based comparables probably played a key role in April’s spending increase, the improving jobs situation likely also contributed.

Not all Americans contributed to the April year-over-year increase. Upper-income spending was essentially unchanged at $109 per day. Still, even this weak number represents an improvement over the record-low upper-income spending of February and March 2010. Year-Over-Year Gains in All Regions but the East Bottom Line Americans continue to view unemployment as one of the nation’s leading problems, but they put slightly less emphasis on it today than they did in April. At the same time, the percentage of Americans cit-

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Spending was highest in the West, at $72 per day, and lowest in the East, at $56. Spending increased 18% in the West, 14% in the Midwest, and 10% in the South compared to a year ago. Year-over-year spending was essentially unchanged in the East.

Upper-Income Spending Pattern Supports New Normal The year-over-year increase in self-reported spending seen this April is good news, particularly given that this year, most of the week before Easter—which usually brings a spike in spending—was in March. The 5% increase in April spending compared to that of March is also welcome news. Gallup’s modeling suggests that job increases lead to increased spending—especially among middle- and lower-income consumers. More importantly, the finding that upper-income Americans are still not spending more than they were a year ago suggests that the 2009 spending “new normal” continues to dominate. These consumers, who have disposable income, are choosing to spend at the lower part of the new normal range ($107 to $121) they established during 10 of 12 months in 2009. If these upper-income spending trends persist, they suggest a slower-than-average U.S. economic recovery during the second half of 2010.

Gallup and Healthways launched the Well-Being Index in January 2008 to provide a comprehensive measure of Americans’ physical, emotional, and fiscal health. The index reached a low of 63.3 in December 2008, but has since recovered to pre-economic crisis levels.

Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup consumer spending results are based on random half-samples of approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Results for April are based on telephone interviews with more than 14,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Results for the various breakouts reported here are based on interviews with more than 2,000 respondents, with a maximum margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 13, 2010 U.S. WELLBEING TIES HIGHEST LEVEL RECORDED At 67.0, April’s wellbeing score ties August 2009 and February 2008 scores by Elizabeth Mendes Americans’ wellbeing score climbed to 67.0 in April, the highest level so far in 2010 and tying the all-time high scores found in August 2009 and February 2008 for this measure initiated in January 2008. The April Well-Being Index score is an improvement from the 65.8 in April 2009 and the 66.7 in April 2008.

The Well-Being Index is an average of six sub-indexes. Scores for five of these—Emotional Health, Physical Health, Healthy Behavior, Work Environment, and Basic Access—rose in April to drive the overall index to its high point for the year. Americans evaluated their lives slightly less positively in April than they did in March, though not significantly so.

Scores for all but one of the six sub-indexes in April show significant improvement compared with the same month one year ago, when the United States was still in the depths of recession. The Work Environment Index, a monitor of Americans’ satisfaction with and treatment in their workplace, is yet to recover to pre-crisis levels, having crested above the 50.0 mark twice since 2008. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 30,201 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted April 1-30, 2010, and similar

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samples in months prior to that. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage points. The Life Evaluation Index is based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks people to evaluate their present and future lives on a scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where “0” is the worst possible life and “10” is the best possible life. Those who rate today a “7” or higher and the future an “8” or higher are considered to be “thriving.” Those who rate today and the future a “4” or lower on the scale are considered to be “suffering.” The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated as the percentage of thriving Americans minus the percentage of suffering Americans. The Work Environment Index includes four items: job satisfaction, ability to use one’s strengths at work, trust and openness in the workplace, and whether one’s supervisor treats him or her more like a boss or a partner. The Work Environment Index is the percentage of respondents who give positive response to all four items, and Gallup only asks these item questions of respondents who are currently employed by others. (Job satisfaction is also asked of those who are self-employed.) Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

found more Americans taking the pro-life than pro-choice position on this measure since May 2009, suggesting a real change in public opinion. By contrast, in nearly all readings on this question since 1995, and each survey from 2003 to 2008, more Americans called themselves pro-choice than pro-life. Shift Limited to Republicans and Independents According to two-year averages of these results since 2001, Republicans have become more likely to call themselves pro-life since polling conducted in 2003/2004, as have Republican-leaning independents since 2005/2006. Independents who lean to neither party also became more likely to call themselves “pro-life” between 2003/2004 and 2005/2006, but have since held steady. Democrats’ self-identification with the pro-life position has moved in the other direction, declining from 37% in 2003/2004 to 31% in 2009/2010. Among independents who lean Democratic, there has been no movement in either direction.

Age and Gender Trends Mirror Overall Pattern May 14, 2010 THE NEW NORMAL ON ABORTION: AMERICANS MORE “PRO-LIFE” For second year straight, “pro-life” and “pro-choice” closely matched

All age groups have become more attached to the pro-life label since 2005, with particularly large increases among young adults and those aged 50 to 64 years in the latest period between 2007/2008 and 2009/2010.

by Lydia Saad The conservative shift in Americans’ views on abortion that Gallup first recorded a year ago has carried over into 2010. Slightly more Americans call themselves “pro-life” than “pro-choice,” 47% vs. 45%, according to a May 3-6 Gallup poll. This is nearly identical to the 47% to 46% division found last July following a more strongly pro-life advantage of 51% to 42% last May.

Both genders have also become more likely to identify as prolife, with the increase among women coming mainly since 2008, whereas the increase in men started after 2006. Underlying Moral Reaction to Abortion Is Unchanged

While the two-percentage-point gap in current abortion views is not significant, it represents the third consecutive time Gallup has

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It is not entirely clear why Americans have grown more likely to embrace the pro-life label when defining their own views on the issue, especially because there has not been an attendant increase in opposition to abortion on moral grounds. Half of Americans currently say abortion is morally wrong—in line with most of Gallup’s readings on this question since 2001,

although higher than the initial 45% recorded in 2001 and a one-time 44% reading in 2006.

to their pre-healthcare low of 13%. Democrats and Republicans are relatively steady compared with last month, at 38% and 10%, respectively.

Taken together, Congress is hanging on to most of the approval bump it enjoyed after the approval of healthcare reform, with approval among all Americans down marginally to 21% in May from 23% in April. Nonetheless, its job approval ratings trail most of last year and remain perilous for incumbents with just six months until Election Day.

Barring evidence that Americans are growing more wary about the morality of abortion per se, the trends by party identification suggest that increased political polarization may be a factor in Republicans’ preference for the “pro-life” label, particularly since Barack Obama took office. Whatever the cause, the effect is that the pro-life label has become increasingly dominant among Republicans and to a lesser degree among independents, while the pro-choice label has become more dominant among Democrats. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 14, 2010 CONGRESS HOLDS HEALTHCARE BUMP, SAVE FOR INDEPENDENTS Approval steady nationwide, among Democrats compared with a month ago by Lymari Morales Democrats continue to rate Congress more favorably than before it passed healthcare reform, but independents’ ratings have retreated

Since the passage of healthcare reform, Congress has been debating its next big priority, while also considering implications for the midterm elections. Another Gallup poll in April found that Democrats want Congress to prioritize financial reform, while independents and Republicans would prefer that Congress focus on immigration reform. Implications Approval of Congress is one of several indicators key to monitoring the political landscape leading up to the congressional midterm elections. Gallup analysis of historical data suggests that the party in control of Congress generally loses a relatively greater proportion of seats when approval is below 40%—a number this Congress has yet to hit. As a point of reference, 26% of Americans approved of Congress in November 2006, just before control shifted from Republicans to Democrats, and 23% approved in October 1994, just before control shifted from Democrats to Republicans. Gallup Daily tracking of registered voters’ generic ballot preferences has found an even split for the past three weeks in voters’ preference between the Republican and Democratic candidate in their district. Democrats and Republicans were tied 46% to 46% in the May 3-6 aggregate, with independents favoring Republicans to Democrats 44% to 38%.

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 17, 2010 AMERICANS’ OUTLOOK FOR U.S. MORALITY REMAINS BLEAK Three-quarters say moral values in U.S. are getting worse

To better understand what Americans mean when they say “moral values in the country” are getting worse, Gallup asks respondents who hold this view to describe some of the ways in which they see values deteriorating. Most commonly, respondents see a lack of respect for other people and a more general decline in moral values and standards. But the responses are quite varied. Specifically, some blame the perceived decline on poor parenting—specifically, parents not instilling proper values in their children. Some cite the poor examples of U.S. leaders in government and business who find themselves embroiled in ethical or moral scandals. And some reference larger societal factors, such as rising crime and violence, Americans turning away from God, church and religion, and the breakdown of the typical two-parent family. Another theme permeating through the responses is blaming individuals themselves for the moral decline, either by not taking responsibility for their own behaviors (7%), not caring (6%), being out for themselves (4%), and for their greed (3%).

by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are three times more likely to describe the current state of moral values in the United States as “poor” than as “excellent” or “good.” Americans’ assessment of U.S. morality has never been positive, but the current ratings rank among the worst Gallup has measured over the past nine years.

Additionally, Gallup’s annual poll on moral values, conducted May 3-6, finds 76% of Americans saying moral values in the United States are getting worse; while 14% say they are getting better. Last year saw a slight improvement in these attitudes—with 21% saying values were getting better—but opinion has since reverted to near 2006-2008 levels.

As noted, a small minority of 14% of Americans believe moral values are getting better. The most common examples members of this group cite include a better understanding of people from different backgrounds and cultures—including a decline in racism—as well as Americans pulling together in tough times and helping those in need.

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May 17, 2010 LARGE METRO AREAS TOP SMALL TOWNS, RURAL AREAS IN WELLBEING Life evaluation, physical health much better in bigger metro areas by Dan Witters Adult residents living in large metropolitan areas enjoy better wellbeing than do residents living in small towns and rural areas according to the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Across six domains of wellbeing, only in the Work Environment domain do inhabitants living in small towns and rural areas have superior scores to their counterparts living in big metro areas.

Neither Republicans, Democrats, nor independents give very positive ratings of to the current state of U.S. moral values. The major party differences come in Republicans’ and independents’ greater tendency to rate moral values as poor and Democrats’ greater likelihood to describe them as “only fair.” This has been the basic pattern over the last several years.

Democrats are somewhat less negative about the trajectory of moral values—22% say values are getting better compared with 12% of Republicans and 9% of independents. Democrats are less optimistic this year compared with 36% who said values were getting better last year. The greater Democratic optimism in 2009 was likely a response to the change in presidential administration from Republican to Democrat. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index score measures six sub-indexes, which individually examine life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. The overall composite score and each of the six sub-indexes’ scores are calculated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 represents fully realized well-being. Gallup and Healthways initiated the Well-Being Index in January 2008. The large, medium, small/micropolitan, and rural areas categories are based on the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Large metro areas have at least 1 million residents; medium metro areas have 250,000 to less than 1 million residents; small metro and micropolitan areas have 10,000 to less than 250,000 residents; and rural areas are non-MSA areas. Smoking, Obesity, High Blood Pressure All Lower in Large Metro Areas Residents living in large metro areas enjoy decided advantages over residents living in small towns and rural areas on several individual wellbeing metrics, including obesity, smoking habits, regular use of a dentist, and having health insurance. While folks living in small towns and rural areas feel safer walking alone at night and have lower daily stress, people living in big metro areas have lower rates of diabetes, high cholesterol, cancer, and health issues that prevent normal activities. Job satisfaction, however, is somewhat higher in small towns and rural areas.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 18, 2010 VOTE FOR CONGRESS REMAINS TIED AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS Rare in Gallup trends to see a change in party support between May and October by Lydia Saad Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending May 16 finds the two major political parties essentially tied in the congressional voting preferences of registered voters nationally. Of voters surveyed, 46% favor Republican candidates and 45% Democratic candidates. Bottom Line Leaders of large metro areas should take notice that wellbeing is not only as attainable in big cities as it is in small towns; it is in fact higher on average. With this realization comes greater urgency for low-performing cities to address head-on deficiencies in wellbeing among the citizenry of their municipalities. Residents living in small towns and rural areas, in turn, should recognize that quieter, calmer settings do not necessarily translate to better wellbeing, and they should make more aggressive efforts to overcome lower overall performance. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with more than 353,000 American adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2- Dec. 29, 2009. The large, medium, small/micropolitan, and rural areas categories are based on the Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Each respondent is attributed to his or her MSA based on the self-report of his or her ZIP Code. In many cases, more than one city is included in the same MSA. The San Jose, Calif., metropolitan statistical area, for example, also includes the smaller nearby cities of Sunnyvale and Santa Clara in addition to San Jose itself, but residents of all three cities would be considered a part of a “large metro area” because the combined population is estimated at more than 1.8 million. For the four groups of respondents in this article, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is no more than ±0.5 percentage points.

This is the eighth straight week that support for Republican candidates matches or exceeds support for Democratic candidates, and it is in line with the rough parity between the two parties seen since January. Historically, Republicans have had a significant turnout advantage in midterm elections, shifting the gap in voter support for the two parties by five percentage points, on average, in their direction. This means that if Republican and Democratic candidates still enjoy equal support from all registered voters by Election Day, Republican candidates would most likely receive a higher percentage of the actual votes cast, given the typical 40% voter turnout rate. Republicans would also be virtually guaranteed major seat gains, possibly putting them in range of recapturing majority control of the U.S. House. Stability Is the Name of the Game With six months remaining before the election, it is too soon to be making such predictions—Gallup typically does not begin to identify likely voters and measure probable turnout until the fall of a midterm election year. However, history does suggest that the underlying voting preferences in place today are more likely than not to continue. According to Gallup generic ballot trends, for each midterm election from 1950-2006 (excluding 1986 for which limited trends

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are available), the structure of voting preferences seen in the first three months of the year generally carried through to the end. In recent years, the only twist on that came in 2002. While the Republicans won that election, and Republicans enjoyed an edge in voter support at the beginning of the year, support for the Democrats increased in the summer and fall, suggesting a possible turnaround for that party. However, any real gain in voter support by the Democrats either was not maintained through the end, or it was not enough to compensate for the Republicans’ turnout advantage.

Implications The competitive nature of the vote for Congress among all registered voters today is highly positive for the Republicans. Not only do Gallup trends suggest this would likely translate into a GOP lead among actual voters if the election were held today, but there is a certain amount of inertia to these numbers. Unless something happens to significantly alter the political environment, the odds are that preferences among registered voters will continue to be closely split in the coming months. The midterm elections from 1970 to 1990 all resulted in solid Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The Democrats’ ultimate advantage in the national two-party vote in each of these elections was previewed early on in each election year.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,574 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted May 10-16, 2010 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 18, 2010 CONSERVATIVES MOST ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT VOTING IN 2010 MIDTERM Nearly half say they are very enthusiastic by Frank Newport and Jeffrey M. Jones Prior to 1970, the earliest Gallup generic ballots in each midterm year were not conducted until April or later. However, for the most part, Gallup’s polls showed the Democrats leading, consistent with the final outcome in all of those years.

Registered voters who identify themselves as conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s congressional elections than are liberals or moderates. Those who say they are “very” conservative are the most enthusiastic of all, with substantially higher enthusiasm than those who say they are “very” liberal.

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Bottom Line

These data are based on Gallup Daily interviewing May 1-16. Gallup’s generic ballot throughout May has been closely divided, with roughly the same proportion of all registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican versus the Democratic candidate in their district. Thus, at this point, it appears turnout among supporters of both parties’ candidates will be an important factor in the eventual Election Day outcome. Enthusiasm on the “Left” and “Right” Gallup data since March of this year have consistently shown that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats. The data presented here on ideology confirm the conclusion that, at this time in the campaign, those to the right of the political spectrum appear to be most motivated to turn out and vote on Nov. 2. The challenge for those on the political left is that, not only are there proportionately few self-identified liberals—20% of registered voters interviewed so far in May identify as liberals, compared to 42% who say they are conservatives—but liberals remain relatively apathetic about voting. The 26% of liberals who say they are very enthusiastic about voting is similar to the percent of those who don’t lean either direction ideologically speaking (moderates) who say the same, and at a far lower level than those who are conservative. A relatively small percentage of registered voters define themselves as “very” conservative (10%) or “very” liberal (4%). Despite their modest size overall, these voters could have a disproportionate influence on Election Day. They are significantly more enthusiastic about voting than those who share the same ideological identity, but who do not use the adjective “very” to describe their leanings. In short, those who have very strong ideological commitments are also the most eager to register that commitment through voting on Election Day this year. Conservatives More Enthusiastic Regardless of Party Affiliation The higher enthusiasm among conservatives is evident among both conservative Republicans and conservative Democrats. However, conservative Republicans are still much more enthusiastic than conservative Democrats. Conservatives who support either party are more enthusiastic about voting than moderates or liberals who support either party, as well as the largely apolitical group of “pure independents” who do not identify with or lean to either major party.

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Ideology at this point in the election cycle appears to be a major driver of enthusiasm about voting in this fall’s congressional election. Conservatives are significantly more enthusiastic than liberals or moderates, and those Americans who define themselves as “very” conservative—about 10% of the registered voter population—are the most enthusiastic of all. These data underscore the potential power of conservatives at the ballot box this fall—including those who identify with the highly publicized Tea Party movement. The generic ballot currently shows an overall close candidate preference among all registered voters right now in the election cycle, but in low-turnout midterm elections disproportionate enthusiasm, such as is the case now, could give right-leaning candidates a significant boost in terms of actual voters at the polls. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 3,594 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted May 1-16, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 1,577 registered voters who self-identify as conservative, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 1,221 registered voters who self-identify as moderate, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 691 registered voters who self-identify as liberal, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 19, 2010 FEWER AMERICANS ARE CUTTING BACK ON SPENDING Forty-seven percent say they are cutting back, down from 57% in February by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist In line with Gallup’s reports of recent consumer spending increases, 47% of Americans say they have been spending less money in recent months than they used to—still a fairly high number, but down significantly from 57% in February. Twenty-two percent say they have been spending more money—up from 17%.

Gallup has asked Americans this question about their spending intentions four times since April 2009. The current 47% who say they are “spending less” is lowest of the four readings by a few points. However, the percentage who say they are “spending more” is no different from what was registered last July. Fewer Americans Spending Across Demographic Groups Women and men are about equally likely to say they are cutting back on their spending, but both groups are doing so to a lesser degree than was true just three months ago. Younger Americans aged 18 to 29 are less likely to say they are cutting back than are their older counterparts. Liberals are less likely than conservatives to say they are cutting back. Fewer upper-income than lower-income Americans are cutting back, as are fewer of those who are not married.

Spending and Saving Preferences May Be Changing Once More Throughout 2009 and into February 2010, a Gallup measure of saving vs. spending preferences suggested that the recession and financial crisis resulted in a significant change in the way many Americans feel about spending and saving. However, based on May’s results, spending and saving preferences may once again be shifting. Forty-four percent of Americans now say they more enjoy spending than saving—up from as low as 35% in February. Similarly, 50% now say they more enjoy saving, down from 62%. May’s spending and saving preferences are now back to where they were in December 2008 and in prior years of this decade.

Shifting Consumer Psychology Gallup’s May results, which show that fewer consumers have been cutting back on their spending, are consistent not only with recent findings from Gallup’s spending measure but also with the improvement in job market conditions compared with earlier in the year. Gallup’s modeling suggests that an improvement in Gallup’s Job Creation Index leads to increased spending, with some lag. While this is clearly good news for the nation’s retailers, it is tempered by the fact that after two years of recession, nearly half of all Americans across most demographic groups continue to say they are cutting back on their spending. On the other hand, these survey results also suggest that not only are fewer Americans cutting back, but also an increased percentage say they more enjoy spending than saving. Over the past decade—but prior to the full impact of the recession and financial crisis in early 2009—nearly half of all Americans acknowledged their enjoyment of spending. For more than a year since then, that consumer psychology seemed to have changed, with a significant shift away from spending toward saving. Although one month’s survey results are far from conclusive, May’s results suggest the old pre-recession psychology could be returning, at least in part. Still, 30% of all American consumers continue to say cutting back on their spending will become their new, normal pattern for years ahead—not much different from the percentage during most of 2009—and a marked change in consumer psychology from the past. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 19, 2010 SATISFACTION WITH U.S. HISTORICALLY LOW FOR MIDTERM YEAR An average of 23% of Americans satisfied with way things are going in U.S. by Jeffrey M. Jones So far in 2010, an average of 23% of Americans have been satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. That is well below the 40% historical average Gallup has measured since 1979, when it began asking this question. The 2010 average is also the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, dating to 1982.

This continues the relatively poor ratings Gallup has measured for most of the year, after a recent peak of 36% in early August 2009.

The 2009-2010 trend continues a long slump in national satisfaction. The percentage of Americans satisfied with the way things are going in the United States has consistently been below the historical average of 40% since July 2005, and has not exceeded 50% in more than six years, since January 2004. The all-time-high satisfaction rating of 71% was measured in February 1999, while the all-time low of 7% occurred in October 2008. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Satisfaction with the way things are going is a key indicator to watch leading up to Election Day in November. Low satisfaction ratings have typically been associated with greater net seat change between parties in Congress in midterm election years, as was the case for the 1982, 1994, and 2006 elections. In each of those years, the average satisfaction rating was no higher than 33%. In 1994 and 2006, as is the case this year, the same party controlled the presidency and Congress heading into the elections, and party control of Congress changed hands after Election Day. In years with higher satisfaction ratings, such as 1986 and 1998, the number of congressional seats changing parties was low. Democrats are clearly vulnerable to losing their majority this year—Gallup’s generic ballot tracking shows that registered voters are divided in their current vote preferences for Congress, but given the usual Republican turnout advantage, the Republicans appear to hold the upper hand at this point. The low satisfaction ratings could explain the significant antiincumbent attitudes apparent in opinion polls and manifested in recent primary election results, which have seen incumbents or party establishment candidates defeated by political outsiders. Gallup’s latest update on satisfaction, from a May 3-6 poll, finds 24% of Americans satisfied. After a slight increase from 19% in early March to 27% in early April—perhaps tied to the passage of healthcare reform legislation—satisfaction ratings are moving lower again.

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May 20, 2010 SMOKING AND AGE: THE BABY BOOMER BULGE Men more likely than women and blacks more likely than whites or Hispanics to smoke by Frank Newport Older Americans are generally less likely than those who are younger to report that they smoke, but the age/smoking relationship is not uniform. Smoking is higher among younger baby boomers between the ages of 44 and 54 than it is among those in their 30s and those 55 and older. These statistics are based on responses to the question “Do you smoke?” asked of more than 350,000 Americans, aged 18 and older, in 2009 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. This large aggregate sample size provides a more detailed portrait of the relationship between smoking and age than is usually available from the government or from other sources. The general conclusion that smoking is less prevalent among older Americans has been well-established. Gallup data, however,

The highest rate of smoking among men occurs at age 23, when about a third report smoking. Unlike women, the rate of smoking among men never again breaks the 30% barrier even among those in their 40s and early 50s, though it is higher for men in this age range than for men in their 30s. Across Age Spectrum, Smoking More Prevalent Among Black Americans Black Americans are more likely than whites or Hispanics to smoke at most age points, with the largest gap among those in their 50s. Hispanics are less likely to smoke than whites or blacks at all age points up until about age 70. demonstrate that this drop in smoking is not uniformly lower as age increases, but it is a pattern that has specific variations across the age spectrum. Of particular interest is the finding that baby boomers between the ages of 44 and 54 report higher levels of smoking than either those immediately younger or those who are older. After peaking in the high 20% range for Americans in their 20s, smoking rates drop to 21% at age 40. After that point, instead of continuing to drop, smoking prevalence rises, climbing back to 27% among Americans age 51. Smoking then decreases again, eventually reaching 20% among those age 59, and typically well below that for those age 60 and older. It is not clear why smoking bumps up among 44- to 54-year-old Americans. These individuals, for the most part born between 1956 and 1966, are at the tail end of the baby boom (usually classified by demographers as those born between 1946 and 1964). They would have moved through their teenage years—when most smokers begin their habit—in the 1970s and early 1980s. It is not clear what happened during this time period that might have resulted in a higher rate of taking up the smoking habit. Or, it may be that something more general about life for Americans within the 44-to-54-year age range, such as children growing up and leaving the home, is more conducive to smoking.

Smoking is particularly prevalent among black men, reaching 40% among those aged 25 to 29, and stays at or above the 30% level up until age 60.

Men More Likely Than Women to Smoke at Almost Every Age Men are more likely to report smoking than women at almost every age point, although both genders follow the same upward and downward smoking patterns across the age spectrum. The gender gap is particularly large for Americans who are now in their 20s and 30s. Implications

The increased rate of smoking among young baby boomers is evident among women. The highest rate of smoking among women— 26%—occurs not only in their 20s, but also among women at age 48.

The average level of adult smoking in 2009 across the 353,849 interviews conducted in Gallup Healthways’ daily interviewing was 21%. This average represents substantial differences in smoking across age groups. Smoking is significantly below average among Americans currently in their 60s, 70s, and 80s, while above average at most age points between 18 and 59. The drop-off in smoking rates among older Americans no doubt has multiple causes. One unfortunate epidemiological truth arises from the fact that older Americans who persist in the habit are more likely than those who don’t smoke to have died, leaving nonsmokers as an increasingly higher percentage of the older population. It may also be that older Americans stop smoking as its associated health problems become more manifest, and/or that older Americans have become more health conscious and thus more likely to take heed of warnings about the deleterious effects of smoking.

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That smoking rates are lower among Americans in their 30s and early 40s than those currently in the 44-to-54-year age range provides an interesting causal puzzle. There may be cohort explanations focusing on the specific social or political environment those born in the late 1950s and early 1960s encountered as they grew up. Or it could be that something about the life circumstances of those in their late 40s and early 50s is more conducive to smoking. The Gallup and Healthways Daily tracking project began in January 2008, so there are no comparable historical data to use to analyze smoking patterns across individual ages from decades ago, which could have helped to determine if this is a recurring pattern. Of interest will be the fate of these 44- to 54-year-old smokers as they continue to age. Will this smoking “bulge” continue to move through the age pipeline in the years ahead? Will this age cohort begin to smoke less frequently as they age? Will Americans now in their 30s begin to increase in smoking incidence as they move into the 44-to-54-year age range?

graduates. By contrast, approval among white men is fairly steady up to the college graduate level, and then it increases significantly among postgraduates.

Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup smoking results are based on the aggregated sample of 353,849 national adults, aged 18 and older, interviewed in 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

One might ask how much these differences have to do with Obama himself—as opposed to his Democratic Party affiliation. The ratings of President Bill Clinton provide some insight into this. In the fall of 1993, when Clinton’s approval rating among whites (then 44%) was similar to Obama’s today, approval for Clinton among whites ranged from 36% among men with a college degree to 62% among postgraduate women—almost identical to the pattern now seen for Obama.

May 21, 2010 WHITE GENDER GAP IN OBAMA APPROVAL WIDENS WITH EDUCATION Clinton trends suggest pattern may be typical for Democratic president by Lydia Saad Approval of President Barack Obama among white U.S. adults has held fairly steady around the 41% mark in 2010, after a gradual decline from 62% in January 2009. At the same time, a gender gap among whites, averaging six percentage points, has persisted throughout Obama’s presidency. Thus far in May, his approval rating is 44% among white women vs. 39% among white men. The white gender gap in views of Obama is not evident among all demographic subgroups. Rather, there is a distinct socioeconomic cast to it. Gallup Daily data collected thus far in May find white men and white women with no college background holding similar views on Obama. The slight gender gap that exists among whites with some college experience (41% approval among women vs. 37% among men) expands moving up the educational ladder to 10 points among those with at least some postgraduate education. The widening gender gap that occurs among whites as education increases is mainly the result of increasing approval among women at each educational threshold—surging to 62% among post-

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By contrast, on average over the course of George W. Bush’s entire presidency, approval of Bush among white men and women varied relatively little by education, although approval among men was consistently higher at each level.

Income Also Separates White Men and Women White men and women of different household income levels also differ in their reactions to Obama. His approval rating is similar among men and women in the lowest income group, but moves in opposite directions as household income increases. Approval among white men decreases with household income (up to the $90,000 level) while approval among white women generally increases. The result is 12- to 13-point gender gaps in approval among upper-income whites.

Approval of President Obama among whites (averaging 41% thus far in May) lags well behind that of all nonwhites (68%), and particularly that of blacks (91%). However, the gender differences among whites of different income and educational levels are quite large. These produce an approval range for Obama that spans from 36% among white males without a college education (as well as upper-middle-income white males) to 62% among postgraduate-educated women. While stark, the differences appear to be typical for a Democratic president.

This upward trend in the percentage having no religious identity has been evident for a number of years in Gallup and other surveys. Gallup began systematically tracking religion using this measure in 1948, asking Americans to name the major religion with which they personally identified. At that point, 2% of Americans volunteered “no religion” and another 3% had an otherwise undesignated religious identity. In 1949 and in the 1950s and 1960s, these percentages stayed low. The number of Americans with no formal religious identity began to increase in the 1970s, reaching 11% by 1990. After some fluctuations over the last two decades, 16% of Americans now say they have no religious identity or have an otherwise undesignated response. Gallup’s 53-year trend on this measure represents nearly a quarter of the history of the United States as an independent country. There is no systematic way of comparing this trend with what may have been the case stretching back to the earliest post-Revolutionary War days. The best conclusion therefore is that Americans are more likely now than at previous times since World War II to say “no religion” when queried in traditional fashion about their religious identity.

Survey Methods

Religion Old-Fashioned and Out of Date?

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 9,774 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 1-19, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

An additional measure Gallup has tracked over time asks Americans if they believe that religion can answer all or most of today’s problems, or if they believe religion is largely old-fashioned and out of date.

Bottom Line

May 21, 2010 IN U.S., INCREASING NUMBER HAVE NO RELIGIOUS IDENTITY Modest increase since 1990s in percentage who believe religion is out of date by Frank Newport Americans have become increasingly less tied to formal religion in recent decades, with the percentage saying they do not have a specific religious identity growing from near zero in the 1950s to 16% this year and last.

The percentage of Americans who believe religion can answer all or most of today’s problems has fluctuated since the mid-1970s, as has the number who believe religion is old-fashioned and out of date. When Gallup first asked this question in 1957, 7% of Americans said religion was old-fashioned. That percentage was generally at or around 20% during much of the 1980s and 1990s, but has risen to 29% last year and 28% this year. Thus, although clearly still a minority, the segment of Americans who believe “religion is largely old-fashioned” is now modestly higher than it was a decade or two ago.

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Bottom Line Gallup surveys confirm a downward drift in religious identity among Americans, as well as a slight increase in the number of Americans who view religion as old-fashioned and out of date. Lack of identification with a formal religious group does not necessarily mean religion is irrelevant in a broad sense in a person’s life. One can remain quite religious, or at least spiritual, while at the same time eschewing attachment to or identity with a formal religion or denomination. Still, trends on an additional Gallup question indicate that there has in fact been a slight uptick in the percentage of Americans who say religion is not very important in their daily lives—from a range of 11% to 14% through most of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s to 19% over the past two years. This suggests that there may be some diminution of “inner” religion accompanying the reduction in explicit religious identity and the increased perception that religion is largely old-fashioned and out of date.

since 2004. When Gallup first asked about the legality of gay marriage in a 1996 poll, 68% of Americans were opposed and 27% in favor. Since that time, support has increased among the major political and ideological subgroups, though more among those on the left of the political spectrum than among those on the right. Currently, a majority of Democrats favor legal gay marriage, as do a majority of moderates and liberals, with liberals the most supportive of these groups, at 70%.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,029 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted May 3-6, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 24, 2010 AMERICANS’ OPPOSITION TO GAY MARRIAGE EASES SLIGHTLY Forty-four percent favor legal recognition; 53% are opposed by Jeffrey M. Jones Opponents of legalizing same-sex marriage continue to outnumber supporters in the United States, by 53% to 44%. However, opposition is now tied for the lowest Gallup has measured. Support was slightly higher, at 46%, in 2007.

These political differences in support for gay marriage may stem from even larger differences by religion. Americans who say religion is “very important” in their lives oppose legal same-sex marriage by 70% to 27%. In contrast, Americans who say religion is not important to them support gay marriage by just as wide a margin.

Differences on the issue are also apparent by religious affiliation. Notably, 81% of Americans who claim no religious affiliation favor legal same-sex marriage. That compares to 48% support among Catholics and 33% among Protestants (including those who identify as Christian but do not specify a particular Christian denomination). The May 3-6 poll data also reveal interesting regional differences, with a majority of Eastern and Western residents in favor of gay marriage, and roughly 6 in 10 Midwestern and Southern residents opposed.

Currently, gay marriage is legal in the District of Columbia and five states, almost all of which are in the Northeast (Vermont, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts; Iowa is the other state). Bottom Line These results are based on Gallup’s Values and Beliefs Poll, which has tracked attitudes toward legal same-sex marriage annually

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Over time, Americans have become more accepting of legal samesex marriage, and a growing number of subgroups now show majority support for it. However, religious and conservative segments of

the U.S. population remain largely opposed—even though their support for gay marriage has also increased in recent years. Because religious and conservative groups are larger than nonreligious and left-leaning groups in the United States, overall, more Americans remain opposed to, rather than in favor of, same-sex marriage. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-6, 2010, with a random sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

weeks. Though the Democrats’ current one-point edge is not a statistically meaningful lead, it does represent the first time the party has had a numerical advantage in registered voter preferences since mid-March.

May 25, 2010 U.S. VOTER ENTHUSIASM DECLINES AFTER PEAKING IN LATE MARCH Generic-ballot preferences remain closely divided by Jeffrey M. Jones Registered voters’ enthusiasm about voting in this fall’s midterm elections has steadily declined since peaking in late March after the passage of healthcare reform. The 30% of registered voters who now say they are very enthusiastic about voting is down 10 points from late March and is tied for the lowest Gallup has measured so far during the campaign. Enthusiasm is lower among both Republicans and Democrats— down 15 and 10 points, respectively, from its peak. Still, Republicans continue to hold a double-digit advantage in voting enthusiasm, a key measure in forecasting past election outcomes. According to the same Gallup Daily tracking data for the week of May 17-23, registered voters’ candidate preferences are closely divided, with 47% saying they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 46% for the Republican if the election were held today. Gallup’s weekly tracking of congressional voting preferences has shown no more than a one-point spread in any of the last five

Because Republicans usually have an advantage in voter turnout over Democrats on Election Day, a close division on the generic ballot among all registered voters would generally predict a greater ultimate vote share for Republicans than for Democrats. That has been the case in past years when Republicans had strong showings on Election Day, such as in the 1994 and 2002 midterm elections. In years when Democrats fared better in midterm elections, such as in 1982 and 2006, they enjoyed large leads on the generic ballot among all registered voters. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 17-23, 2010, with a random sample of 1,335 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The findings are from Gallup’s annual Values and Beliefs survey, conducted May 3-6, 2010. While doctor-assisted suicide is the most controversial of the issues tested, with the public tied at 46% over its moral acceptability, Americans are fairly unified in their opposition to another life-ending choice—suicide—with 77% calling this morally wrong. The morality of gay or lesbian relations is also relatively divisive in comparison with other issues Gallup tested; however, for the first time since this question was established in 2001, a slight majority, 52%, now finds them morally acceptable. Prior to a transition period from 2007 to 2009, when Americans were closely split on the issue, the majority had considered these relations morally wrong. Political Divisions Greatest on Gay Relations and Abortion Perhaps of some relevance to the 2010 midterm congressional elections, Gallup finds Republicans and Democrats the furthest apart in their reactions to several cultural matters related to sex and reproduction: gay/lesbian relations, abortion, embryonic stem cell research, having a baby outside of marriage, and premarital sex. Majorities of Democrats, compared with fewer than half of Republicans, consider each of these morally acceptable. While there is also a wide gulf in attitudes toward the death penalty, majorities of Democrats as well as Republicans consider that policy acceptable.

May 26, 2010 FOUR MORAL ISSUES SHARPLY DIVIDE AMERICANS Partisan disagreement drives national controversy on gay relations, abortion by Lydia Saad Americans generally agree about the morality of 12 out of 16 behaviors or social policies that sometimes spark public controversy, with sizable majorities saying each is either “morally acceptable” or “morally wrong.” By contrast, views on doctor-assisted suicide, gay and lesbian relations, abortion, and having a baby outside of marriage are closely divided—the percentage supporting and the percentage opposing are within 15 points of each other.

Largest Gender Gaps Involve Animal Rights The sharpest differences between men and women on these issues are not found on abortion or other reproductive matters, but on three issues that involve the ethical treatment of animals. Majorities of men, but less than half of women, consider the use of animal fur for clothing, and medical testing on animals to be morally acceptable. Also, there is a 24-point gap between men and women in their belief that cloning animals is acceptable. Men are more accepting than women on nearly every item, but the differences on many are minimal, including on abortion, embry-

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onic stem cell research, extramarital affairs, and having a baby out of wedlock.

May 27, 2010 AMERICANS GET BACK TO EXERCISING OFTEN IN 2010 Frequent exercise up compared with last year, but still trailing 2008 levels by Elizabeth Mendes More Americans report exercising at a high frequency every month so far this year compared with 2009. This is a turnaround from last year, when the percentage of Americans who reported exercising frequently was down during each month compared with 2008. Even with the increase, however, 2010 levels still remain below those from 2008.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-6, 2010, with a random sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

As part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, Gallup asks 1,000 American adults each night on how many days, in the past seven days, they exercised for at least 30 minutes. Americans typically report exercising most frequently during the summer months and less so in the winter. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “2008 Physical Activity Guidelines,” adults need at least 150 minutes of “moderate-intensity aerobic activity” per week and “muscle-strengthening activity” on two or more days each week. While the Gallup-Healthways question cannot measure the specific type or total number of minutes of exercise, it does provide a consistent and always up-to-date broad gauge of physical activity levels in America. Yearly averages from 2008, 2009, and 2010 so far reveal a general consistency in exercise frequency. On average, slightly less than a third of Americans say they do not exercise for at least 30 minutes on any day in a given week, slightly more than 40% report exercising for at least 30 minutes on one to four days per week, and about a quarter exercise on five or more days.

The number of Americans who do not exercise for at least 30 minutes on any days of the week is up about one percentage point since 2008, while the number who report exercising five or more

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days per week is down by close to two percentage points. However, more people are now falling into the one-to-four day range than did so two years ago. The averages for 2010 so far will most likely change in accordance with the seasonal trends in exercise. Because Americans exercise more in the spring and summer months and frequent exercise is already on the upswing compared with last year, the complete data for 2010 will likely show a positive increase in exercise on five or more days per week. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 30,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, per month. For monthly results based on the stated total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage points. More than 350,000 surveys were completed in 2008 and in 2009, yielding percentages with maximum expected error range of ±0.2%. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Americans’ dissatisfaction with BP’s efforts is particularly strong. Looking at the extreme responses, 39% of Americans earlier this week called BP’s response “very poor” compared to 21% for the federal government and 19% for Obama. “Very good” ratings were almost non-existent for all three players—with 11% saying so about Obama’s efforts, compared with 6% for BP and 5% for the federal government. The federal government said Monday it had no plans to take control of the efforts from BP, a decision Americans appear to support. More than two-thirds (68%) say the oil company should be in charge of efforts to clean up and contain the spill, while 28% say so about the federal government. With the ultimate long-term impact far from clear, Americans agree the situation is a “disaster.” Nearly 4 in 10 (37%) say it will be “the worst environmental disaster in 100 years,” while about the same number (35%) call it a disaster, but not the worst in 100 years. Fewer call it a major problem (23%) or a minor one (3%). These views appear to be based on a close level of awareness of exactly what is happening. With 87% saying they are following news of the oil spill closely including 47% “very closely,” it ranks among the top 10 most closely followed news stories Gallup has measured since 1991.

May 27, 2010 AMERICANS CRITICAL OF OIL SPILL RESPONSE; KEEPING CLOSE TABS President Obama’s efforts rated more positively than BP’s by Lymari Morales With President Barack Obama and BP taking their most aggressive steps yet in response to the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the majority of Americans express clear displeasure with their efforts so far.

Those who are following news of the oil spill very closely are more likely to predict it will be the worst environmental disaster in at least 100 years and to more negatively rate the job BP, Obama, and the federal government are doing in response to the spill. Bottom Line

The results are from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted May 24-25, 2010—just before BP began its aggressive “top kill” effort to plug the massive leak in the Gulf of Mexico and as Obama prepared a White House press conference and Gulf Coast visit to amplify the government’s involvement. Since the oil rig explosion and resulting spill April 20, BP has been unable to stop the flow of oil into the Gulf while drilling regulators have been accused of having dangerously close ties to the oil and gas industry.

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With Americans clearly displeased with the oil spill response so far, the success of the “top kill” procedure BP initiated Wednesday and Obama’s visit to the region on Friday have the potential to play a pivotal role in how Americans view the situation going forward. With so many Americans watching the news closely, it’s a fair assumption that they’re watching and waiting for news that the oil has, at the very least, stopped gushing, but the work to be done—both in the Gulf and in terms of public opinion—certainly won’t end there. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older,

living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the age 18+ non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Democrats had already put more emphasis on environmental protection than on energy production in March, but that position has gained strength among Democrats today. Independents’ views have flipped from a majority pro-energy stance in March to a majority proenvironment one today. In contrast, Republicans’ opinions have not changed since the oil spill occurred; they continue to prioritize energy production over environmental protection by a 2-to-1 margin.

Americans’ shift toward a more pro-environment point of view is also evident in a separate trade-off question, which pits environmental protection against economic growth. After the oil spill, the balance of opinion tips toward the environment by seven points, 50% to 43%. Just over two months ago, Americans favored economic growth by a 15-point margin, 53% to 38%.

May 27, 2010 OIL SPILL ALTERS VIEWS ON ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION Majority now favors protecting environment over developing energy supplies by Jeffrey M. Jones Between March and today, with the Gulf of Mexico oil spill intervening, Americans’ preferences for prioritizing between environmental protection and energy production have shifted from a somewhat pro-energy stance to an even stronger pro-environment stance.

The new results are based on a May 24-25 USA Today/Gallup poll. In March, by 50% to 43%, Americans said it was more important to develop U.S. energy supplies than to protect the environment, continuing a trend in the direction of energy production seen since 2007. Now, the majority favor environmental protection, by 55% to 39%—the second-largest percentage (behind the 58% in 2007) favoring the environment in the 10-year history of the question.

These shifts on the environment vs. economy trade-off are more pronounced among Democrats and independents, but on this question even Republicans have shown slight movement in the direction of the environment.

Bottom Line The recent oil spill has spurred a significant shift in Americans’ environmental attitudes. For the last few years, Americans’ environmental concerns declined as the public placed a higher priority on pocketbook concerns like the economy and energy, likely due to the poor U.S. economy. However, in just two months’ time, that trend

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has reversed, and the pro-environment position has regained the strength it showed for most of the last decade. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

support has also declined significantly, but remains just above a majority in the latest poll. Meanwhile, there has been just a slight decline in the percentage of Republican voters who are in favor of increased drilling.

May 28, 2010 AMERICANS DIVIDED ON INCREASED COASTAL OIL DRILLING Support has continued to drop since oil spill occurred by Jeffrey M. Jones President Barack Obama’s decision to extend a moratorium on new deepwater ocean drilling comes at a time when Americans are divided, with 50% in favor and 46% opposed, on increased drilling for oil and gas off U.S. coasts. However, most stop short of favoring a prohibition on drilling, as, on a follow-up question, 19% of Americans say they are opposed to all drilling in U.S. coastal areas. The poll indicates that public support for increased oil drilling has eroded as the oil spill crisis has dragged on. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted in early April—before the spill occurred—asked the same question of registered voters and found 70% favoring increased drilling in U.S. coastal areas. That number dipped to 60% in early May, shortly after the oil spill occurred. In the new USA Today/Gallup poll, 52% of registered voters support drilling, suggesting support has slipped further as the oil spill has expanded in size and begun to come ashore. Since April, Democratic voters’ support for increased coastal oil drilling has fallen well below the majority level. Independent voters’

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Bottom Line Americans’ support for increased offshore drilling has declined significantly since April, to the point that the public is now about evenly divided on the issue. President Obama’s decision to extend the moratorium on new offshore drilling is now more in line with Americans’—and particularly Democrats’—current views on drilling after the oil spill than before it, when Obama called for more drilling. The oil spill has also changed Americans’ attitudes on the trade-off between energy production and environmental protection—underscoring the challenges U.S. leaders will face in addressing such issues going forward. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 946 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

May 28, 2010 ONE IN FOUR AMERICANS PLAN TO TRAVEL LESS THIS SUMMER However, Americans expect to spend more on transportation and other vacation costs by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist When asked about their summer travel plans—including vacations and weekend trips—in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll, 27% of Americans say they will travel less this year than last while 18% say they will travel more. Another 37% say they will travel the same amount, and 18% say they don’t travel much. These travel intentions appear to be highly influenced by consumers’ economic confidence.

omy “excellent/good” or “only fair.” Similarly, those who say the economy is “getting worse” are much more likely to say they intend to travel less than those who say it is “getting better.” It appears that consumer expectations about the future of the economy play a role in their comfort with spending money on travel this summer. Just about as many men under 50 years of age say they will travel more as say they will travel less. On the other hand, many more women of the same age say they will travel less than say they will travel more. While more men and women over 50 say they intend to travel less rather than more this summer, the intention to cut back on travel is particularly strong among women over 50. In the East, just about as many Americans say they will travel more as less. In the other three regions, far more say they will travel less this summer than travel more.

Americans Plan to Spend More on Transportation and Other Vacation Costs While many Americans say they plan to travel less this summer, one in three say they expect to spend more on transportation to and from their vacation destinations while one in five expects to spend less. Similarly, 27% expect to spend more on food, lodging, and entertainment this summer than last summer. Twenty-one percent plan to spend less and 34% the same amount.

Traveling Less but Enjoying It More

Those who rate the current economy “poor” are much more likely to say they intend to travel less than those who rate the econ-

According to the authors of Gallup’s new book Wellbeing, a key to financial wellbeing is to “buy experiences—such as vacations and outings with friends or loved ones.” While current economic circumstances may allow Americans fewer trips this year than last, it appears they intend to spend more on transportation and other vacation expenses. It may be that when they do take a trip, Americans will be going farther away or staying longer. That is, they may be

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enhancing their wellbeing by buying richer experiences, even if they feel they can do so less often. For those in the travel industry, this may mean that getting the potential customer to a particular destination or location may be even more important than in past years. Fewer travelers will result in more intense competition for each customer. However, since Americans intend to spend more on recreation this summer, the benefits of getting consumers to your desired destination should be greater than in the past. Finally, consumer perceptions of the economy in the near term may be significant in determining how much travel Americans actually engage in. The recreation industry could benefit if perceptions of the economy improve in the weeks ahead—something one can monitor daily by checking out Gallup’s economic confidence measures.

ing, and that continues today. The finding is on the basis of eight Gallup surveys since March 2009 in which the two measures were asked at the same time. In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted May 24-25, 48% of Americans approved of the job he is doing as president, six points below his favorable rating. That is the same average as Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending May 23.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 18, 2010, with a random sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using a randomdigit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup finds all three party groups giving Obama a higher favorable rating than job approval score. Among Democrats his favorable rating is 89% and his approval rating 82%. Among independents the difference is 51% vs. 44%, respectively, and among Republicans it is 20% vs. 15%. A Familiar Pattern The average six-point gap between Obama’s favorable and job approval ratings, thus far, is very close to the ratings gap seen for former president George W. Bush during his two terms in office. From 2001 through January 2009 Bush’s favorable rating was consistently higher than his approval rating, by an average of five percentage points.

May 31, 2010 OBAMA FAVORABILITY SIMILAR TO IMAGE PRE-HEALTHCARE VOTE His six-point edge in favorability vs. approval is typical for recent presidents by Lydia Saad President Barack Obama is viewed favorably by 54% of Americans and unfavorably by 43%, similar to the favorability ratings he received last fall. Gallup polling in March—barely a week after the passage of healthcare reform in Congress—showed Obama’s unfavorable score rise to 48%, but that has since reverted to the low 40s.

The picture is a bit different for former president Bill Clinton. For the first five years of his presidency, his favorability rating averaged six points higher than his approval score. Then, subsequent to revelations in January 1998 about his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, his favorable rating dipped below his approval score and remained an average of eight points lower for the duration of his presidency. Gallup started measuring presidential favorability in the current format in 1992, the last year of George H.W. Bush’s presidency. However, in that time frame (when Bush generally suffered weak job approval), the elder Bush’s favorable rating averaged nine points higher than his approval rating. Bottom Line

Throughout his presidency, Obama’s favorable rating has mostly tracked five to seven percentage points above his job approval rat-

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Obama’s favorable scores to date are generally in line with the expectations established by Gallup’s ratings for the previous three

presidents. Favorability for a sitting president typically runs a few points higher than overall job approval, with the average gap for recent presidents ranging from five to nine points. Only a year into Bill Clinton’s second term, when his personal image was tainted by scandal, did Gallup find favorability lagging approval for a sustained period. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, liv-

ing in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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June 01, 2010 BOTH PARTIES’ FAVORABLE RATINGS NEAR RECORD LOWS Republicans’ rating down from March, Democrats’ appears to have stabilized by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ favorable ratings of the Democratic and Republican parties are near record lows for each. The current 36% favorable score for the Republican Party is five percentage points above the low established in December 1998 as the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Clinton. The Democratic Party’s 43% is two points higher than its record low measured in March.

The current poll marks the second successive sub-50% rating for the Democrats after the party had been consistently above that mark since July 2006. With the decline in Republican favorable ratings and stabilization of Democratic ratings, the net result is that the Democratic Party once again has an advantage over the Republican Party on this measure, 43% to 36%, after the parties were essentially tied in late March. The relatively low ratings for both parties simultaneously is somewhat unusual; typically when one party’s ratings are down the other’s are up, as in 1998, late 2002, and 2006-early 2009. The current poor ratings for both parties are likely an extension of the more general frustration with government institutions—as evidenced by low approval ratings of Congress and widespread anti-incumbent sentiment—as well as overall dissatisfaction with current conditions in the United States. Even though Democrats currently maintain higher favorable ratings than Republicans, the Republicans still seem poised for a strong showing in the fall midterm elections. Registered voter preferences in Gallup’s generic ballot are divided equally between the parties, which would generally indicate a stronger Republican year given the party’s usual advantage in voter turnout. Survey Methods

Gallup has tracked favorable ratings of the major U.S. political parties since 1992. The latest updates are based on a May 24-25 USA Today/Gallup poll. After showing improvement in recent months, Republican Party favorable ratings are down again. The current 36% rating represents a significant decline from the 42% measured in late March, and is nearly back to the 34% readings from late 2008 and early 2009.

Favorable ratings of the Democratic Party are down from last year, but after a sharp 10-point drop in late March to a record-low 41%—perhaps in response to the passage of healthcare reform— its rating appears to have stabilized now at a still low 43%.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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June 01, 2010 U.S. WORKERS REPORT MOST JOB CREATION IN 19 MONTHS Job market conditions improved as May came to a close; hiring exceeded firing in all regions by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Job Creation Index hit its best level in 19 months in May. Based on 16,395 U.S. employees’ self-reports of hiring (28%) and firing (21%) activity at their workplaces, the Index improved to +7— up steadily this year and a total of eight points since January.

Both Hiring and Firing Continue to Improve

Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day. National results for May are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 16,395 employees. For this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Regional results for May are based on interviews totaling more than 3,000 in each region. For each total regional sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Twenty-eight percent of U.S. workers report that their companies are hiring, a total increase of five points since January, while 21% say their companies are letting people go—an improvement of three points. June 03, 2010 HOPE OF FINDING WORK HALVED AFTER 6 MONTHS OF UNEMPLOYMENT One in four unemployed Americans has been actively looking for work for a year or more by Jenny Marlar Unemployed Americans’ hopes for finding work in the next four weeks drop sharply as their length of unemployment increases, from 71% for those who have been unemployed less than a month to 36% among those unemployed for more than six months.

Commentary Gallup’s Job Creation Index for May suggests that more new jobs are being created while layoffs continue to decline across the U.S. The Index also shows that job market conditions improved further as May came to a close. There are numerous events—the plunging euro, falling stock market, the oil spill debacle, international tensions—taking place that could in theory make employers more hesitant to hire going forward. Further, some of today’s job creation gains may be seasonal—and others may be due to the expected sharp increase in government census takers. Regardless, any improvement in job market conditions benefits not only those getting jobs but also the overall economic recovery. Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day The Gallup Job Creation

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These results are based on April 19-May 23 interviews with 2,096 unemployed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking. Gallup classifies respondents as unemployed if they are not working, are actively looking for work, and are available for work. During this time, Gallup found that currently unemployed Americans have been actively looking for work for a median of 14 weeks,

including 25% who have been doing so for a year or more. The majority of the unemployed (51%) have been out of work more than a month but less than a year.

Gallup’s unemployment rate during this time frame was 9.5%, and it is not seasonally adjusted. Older, Highly Educated Americans Unemployed Longest Job seekers aged 50 to 65 report the highest median length of unemployment, at 28 weeks, while 18- to 29-year-olds report the shortest length of unemployment, at 6 weeks. Length of unemployment for men, non-Hispanic whites, 30- to 49-year-olds, and those with college degrees or postgraduate work also exceeds the median.

of Gallup Daily tracking April 19-May 23, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ± 2.6 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. There are important methodological differences between Gallup daily tracking and the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These differences include, but are not limited to, question wording, Gallup daily tracking versus CPS panel design, Gallup respondent level surveys versus CPS household level surveys, and BLS seasonal adjustments.

June 04, 2010 SUPPORT FOR CONFIRMING KAGAN TRAILS THAT OF RECENT NOMINEES Forty-six percent want Senate to vote in favor of her nomination by Jeffrey M. Jones A USA Today/Gallup poll finds just under half of Americans, 46%, in favor of the Senate’s confirming Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. That level of support is generally lower than what Gallup has found when it first polled about other recent court nominations, trailing all others except Harriet Miers and Robert Bork.

Bottom Line Unemployment remains high and millions of Americans face longterm joblessness and the loss of hope that they will find work soon. Gallup will continue to track length of unemployment and will explore the physical and psychological effects of long-term unemployment in future articles. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 2,096 national adults, aged 18 and older, who are not working, are actively looking for work, and available for work, conducted as part

Generally, initial public support for Supreme Court nominees has not been high, reaching only 59% for John Roberts. This is partly

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because substantial proportions of Americans do not have opinions of the men and women chosen for the court. The level of unfamiliarity with recent nominees has varied from a low of 19% for Roberts and Sonia Sotomayor to a high of 44% for Bork. The variation in the percentage of Americans who have no opinion of the nominees complicates historical comparisons. However, Kagan’s relatively low historical ranking holds up even when one calculates the percentage in favor of her nomination only among those who have an opinion. The 59% of those with an opinion of the Kagan nomination who support her confirmation exceeds only the 55% of those with an opinion of the Miers and Bork nominations who supported their confirmations. Using this standard, Americans were initially most supportive of the nominations of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Clarence Thomas, and Roberts.

The generally tepid response to Kagan’s nomination echoes what Gallup found in its immediate-reaction poll to her nomination last month, when 40% rated President Obama’s choice of her positively. Support for Kagan Nomination by Subgroup

The two other nominees who began the process with less than majority public backing ultimately were not confirmed: Miers’ nomination was withdrawn and Bork’s nomination was rejected in the Senate confirmation vote. At this point in the process, however, there does not seem to be much in Kagan’s background or in the political environment that would prevent her from becoming the first nominee to win confirmation with less than majority initial public backing. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the age 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Democrats largely support Kagan’s nomination, with 68% in favor and 12% opposed. On the other hand, a slim majority of Republicans, 51%, are opposed, with 26% in favor. Independents are more likely to favor than oppose the nomination.

June 04, 2010 WELL-BEING INDEX DOCUMENTS HEART ATTACK PATTERNS IN U.S. Men, older Americans, those with little formal education most likely to report heart attacks by Frank Newport Kagan, seeking to become the third woman on the current Supreme Court, and the fourth in history, receives about equal support from men (45%) and women (47%), though men are more likely than women to oppose her confirmation (36% to 28%). Implications Kagan’s Senate confirmation hearings are set to begin later this month. In its history of polling about Supreme Court nominees, Gallup has generally found little change in the percentage favoring their confirmation during the confirmation process. To the extent that opinions change, it is generally in terms of a reduction in the percentage with no opinion and an increase in the percentage opposed.

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The incidence of heart attacks, virtually nil in Americans’ 20s and early 30s, begins to rise steadily among those aged 40 and older. By age 67, more than 10% of the adult population reports having had a heart attack, and by age 81, more than 15%. The heart attack data used in this analysis are based on 707,527 interviews conducted in 2008 and 2009 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. This large sample provides the unique ability to document reports of having had a heart attack on a year-by-year basis from age 18 to age 90. Each night, random samples of 1,000 American adults, aged 18 and older, are interviewed as part of the Gallup-Healthways WellBeing Index and asked, “Have you ever been told by a physician or nurse that you have any of the following, or not?,” with “heart

Those Without a High School Diploma More Likely to Report Heart Attacks The data also show that education is significantly related to selfreported heart attack incidence.

attack” included as one of a list of seven conditions. (The other conditions are high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, depression, asthma, and cancer.) The results may understate the real-world incidence of heart attacks. By definition, all reports are based on respondents still living at the time of the interview; those who died either as an immediate or longer term result of a heart attack before the time of the interview are not included in this study. This analysis is also dependent on respondent self-reports and not official diagnoses as reported by clinicians. Even with the rigorous question wording, which asks respondents if they have been given an official diagnosis of a heart attack by a physician or nurse, it is possible that some respondents may report having had a heart attack who in a strict clinical fashion did not have actually have one. It is also possible that some respondents may have had a heart attack but were unaware of its occurrence.

Beginning in their 30s, those without a high school degree are significantly more likely to report having had a heart attack than those of the same age who have higher levels of education. Americans who are college graduates and those with postgraduate education are less likely than others to report having had a heart attack up until about their mid-70s, at which time heart attack incidence converges among all but those with less than a high school degree. Overall, the incidence of heart attacks among Americans who have less than a high school diploma are more than three times as high as among those with a postgraduate education.

Heart Attack Reports Higher Among Men At each specific age point from Americans’ mid-30s on, men are consistently more likely than women to report having had a heart attack, confirming one of cardiology’s most basic epidemiological facts of life.

Bottom Line

Although the same age-related trends occur among men and women, the gender gap in heart attack rates widens with each increasing year of age beyond Americans’ mid-30s. Men who are in their late 60s and older are more than twice as likely as women of the same age to report that they have had a heart attack. Overall, 5.7% of all men interviewed as part of this study report having had a heart attack, compared with 3.6% of women.

These findings, based on a random sample of more than 700,000 adult Americans interviewed in 2008 and 2009, provide specific documentation of the self-reported, cumulative incidence of heart attack on a year-to-year basis in the contemporary American population. The findings make it clear that heart attack incidence climbs steadily and continually from about age 40 on. Additionally, men are increasingly more likely than women to report having had a heart attack at each age point from Americans’ 30s on. Those who do not have a high school degree are considerably more likely than others to report having had a heart attack at all ages. Americans with college degrees are less likely than others to report having had a heart attack.

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with an aggregated random sample of 707,527 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking/Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index in 2008 and 2009. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than 1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 04, 2010 FEDERAL DEBT, TERRORISM CONSIDERED TOP THREATS TO U.S. Republicans perceived as best party to deal with both by Lydia Saad Terrorism and federal government debt tie as the most worrisome issues to Americans when they consider threats to the future wellbeing of the U.S. Four in 10 Americans call each an “extremely serious” threat, with healthcare costs ranking a close third. On a broader basis, a majority of Americans consider all but 1 of the 10 issues rated in the May 24-25 USA Today/Gallup poll as either “extremely serious” or “very serious” threats. Discrimination against minority groups is the sole exception, with 46% calling it extremely or very serious. Partisans Rank Issues Differently The overall scores for terrorism and the federal debt are boosted by the relatively high percentages of Republicans—50% or more—who consider each of these extremely serious, putting these at the top of the Republicans’ list. The size and power of the federal government ranks third among Republicans. The top three issues for Democrats are healthcare costs, the environment/global warming, and terrorism. However, no more than 37% of Democrats call any of these issues “extremely serious.” 188

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The federal budget deficit ranks as the top issue concern for independents—42% call it extremely serious—thus aligning independents closer to Republicans than to Democrats on this issue. By contrast, independents’ 36% rating for terrorism is closer to Democrats’ than to Republicans’ rating.

The greatest gaps between Republicans and Democrats— exceeding 20 percentage points—are seen for the environment/global warming (about which Democrats are more concerned), and the federal debt and the size of government (issues for which the Republicans show greater concern). Republican Party Preferred on Top Issue Concerns The Republican Party is preferred over the Democratic Party for handling the two top-ranking issues of public concern—terrorism and federal government debt. The Democratic Party is preferred by much wider margins for the environment and discrimination against minority groups—but these are among the least worrisome issues to Americans. Bottom Line Of several potential threats to the future wellbeing of the United States, Americans seem most concerned about terrorism and several economic matters—the federal budget debt, healthcare costs, and unemployment. Americans are far less likely to consider other domestic issues, including illegal immigration and the environment, as serious threats.

Regarding the current immigration debate over balancing U.S. security concerns with fair treatment of illegals, however, many more Americans say illegal immigration is an extremely serious threat than say this about discrimination against minority groups. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using a random-digit-dial sampling technique. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 07, 2010 HISPANICS’ APPROVAL OF OBAMA DROPS IN 2010 By contrast, whites’ and blacks’ views have been highly steady by Lydia Saad Hispanics’ approval of President Barack Obama’s job performance slipped to 57% in May, after falling from 69% in January to 64% in February. By contrast, whites’ and blacks’ approval of the president has been steady throughout 2010.

These trend figures are based on monthly averages of Gallup Daily tracking for 2010, including interviews with approximately 1,000 Hispanics each month. Taking Reform Off the Table The two major drops in Hispanics’ approval of Obama this year—in February and May—coincide with two periods when the president was under fire for not doing enough to promote comprehensive immigration reform in Congress. After Obama’s State of the Union speech in January, several leading Hispanics and Hispanic groups criticized Obama for not devoting more attention to immigration reform in the speech—and, more specifically, for not fulfilling his campaign promise of making comprehensive immigration reform a top priority. As one Hispanic activist wrote at the time, “For those looking for a strong statement in support of comprehensive immigration reform, the speech was a big disappointment.” Illinois Rep. Luis Gutierrez was also publicly critical of Obama after the speech. Gallup Daily tracking showed Obama’s approval rating among Hispanics falling nearly 10 percentage points in the week after his State of the Union address compared to the week prior to the speech. And Obama’s ratings remained subdued in February, resulting in the five-point drop in Hispanics’ approval between the two months. Obama also drew considerable ire from Hispanic groups—as well as from New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez—after making statements at the end of April in which he essentially removed comprehensive immigration reform from his legislative agenda for 2010, citing political obstacles. Again, there appeared to be an almost immediate impact: Obama’s approval rating from Hispanics dropped seven points in the week after he made the statements, compared with the week prior to those statements. Publicity about Arizona’s passage of a controversial immigration law around the same time may have only intensified Hispanics’ desire to see quick action on comprehensive national reform legislation, thus keeping their approval rating of Obama below 60% throughout May. Decline Steeper Among Spanish-Language Respondents The decline in Obama’s approval rating with Hispanics is seen mainly among those interviewed in Spanish: an 11-point drop in the past month and a total of 21 points since January. By contrast, his approval among Hispanics interviewed in English is down just 5 points since January. About a third of Gallup’s interviews with Hispanics are conducted in Spanish, accommodating respondents who are not proficient in English. Prior Gallup research clearly shows that Hispanics

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Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the age 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

interviewed in Spanish are much more likely to be immigrants to the U.S. than are those interviewed in English, supporting the idea that the immigration issue may be a factor in Hispanics’ dwindling approval of the president. Despite the widening gap in approval of Obama between Hispanics interviewed in Spanish and those interviewed in English, Gallup finds little difference in the trends on the basis of voter registration. His approval rating is down nine points since March among Hispanics who are registered to vote, as well as eight points among Hispanics who are not registered. While Hispanics’ reduced support for Obama may or may not have a direct impact on their vote for Congress this fall, it could certainly make it harder for Obama to personally boost midterm turnout among Hispanics as part of the Democrats’ get-out-the-vote initiative. Bottom Line

June 08, 2010 U.S. VOTERS FAVOR CONGRESSIONAL NEWCOMERS OVER INCUMBENTS Sixty percent say they would rather vote for candidate with no congressional experience by Jeffrey M. Jones Registered voters are nearly twice as likely to say they would rather vote for a congressional candidate with no prior experience in Congress as to say they would vote for one who has previously served in Congress. This view, however, is not shared by all party groups, as Democrats are slightly more likely to favor a candidate with congressional experience.

Hispanics—and particularly Hispanics who appear to be more closely associated with Hispanic immigrants—have become increasingly disenchanted with President Obama this year. That said, it is important to note that in all instances a majority of Hispanics continue to say they approve of the president’s job performance, exceeding approval among non-Hispanic whites. While Obama has tried to show strong moral support for the idea of comprehensive immigration reform, his reluctance to expend any real political capital to make it happen may be taking a toll on his approval rating in the Hispanic community. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with random samples of national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-May 31, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking. For results based on the monthly samples of whites (approximately 12,000 each month), one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the monthly samples of blacks (approximately 950 each month), one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the monthly samples of Hispanics (approximately 1,000 each month), one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

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These party differences may reflect the fact that Democrats currently hold the majority of seats in Congress, so the more incumbents who are re-elected, presumably the better for the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, only as many as one in four independents or Republicans seem to place a high value on congressional experience this year. The pro-newcomer point of view has already been apparent in nominating primaries or conventions this election year, as voters have defeated several long-serving senators and House members from both parties. Because the question asking voters to choose between a candidate who has served and one who has not served in Congress had not been asked prior to the recent May 24-25 USA Today/Gallup poll, it is not clear whether the preference for congressional newcomers is higher or lower than it has been in the past. However, the poll did include two questions Gallup has tracked since the 1992 elections,

and the results of these questions reveal that anti-incumbent sentiment is near record highs. Specifically, 32% of voters say “most members of Congress” deserve re-election, historically one of the lowest levels Gallup has measured. The latest update is, however, a slight improvement from the record-low 28% Gallup measured earlier this year.

Again, this sentiment is not shared across the political spectrum, as 53% of Democrats, compared with 16% of Republicans and 18% of independents, believe most members of Congress should be reelected this year. As is usually the case, voters are more charitable when rating their own members of Congress than they are when rating “most members.” Whereas 32% of voters say most members deserve reelection, 50% say their own member does. Still, this latter number ranks among the lowest percentages endorsing their own representative for another term that Gallup has measured, just two percentage points above the all-time low of 48% from October 1992.

given election year, it has usually been toward a more negative rather than a more positive view of incumbents. Survey Methods Results from this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 946 registered voters aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 08, 2010 WORRY, SADNESS, STRESS INCREASE WITH LENGTH OF UNEMPLOYMENT Majority of unemployed are “struggling” by Jenny Marlar

Party differences are less pronounced when it comes to evaluating one’s own representative, as 61% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans, and 40% of independents think their own member of Congress deserves re-election. Implications A stronger-than-usual anti-incumbent bias is another challenge for a majority Democratic Party that is trying to minimize the losses usually dealt to the president’s party in a midterm election year. Gallup’s Daily tracking of registered-voter candidate preferences this year has typically shown Republicans and Democrats tied or the Republicans with a slight lead, either of which would generally predict a strong Republican showing at the polls on Election Day. That day is still nearly five months away, but typically, voters’ attitudes toward incumbents do not change dramatically over the course of an election year. To the extent change has occurred in a

Americans who are unemployed for more than six months are much more likely to experience daily negative emotions, including worry, sadness, and stress and somewhat less likely to report positive emotions, such as happiness, than are those who are unemployed for a shorter time. As an example of the emotional toll of longer term unemployment, of those out of work for more than six months, 55% say they experienced worry during the previous day. This compares with 46% among those unemployed for a month to six months and the 40% for those without a job for less than a month who said the same. The longer term unemployed are also more likely than those unemployed less than six months to report having at some point been told by a doctor or nurse that they suffer from depression, and they are more than twice as likely as the employed to have a depression diagnosis. While it is reasonable to assume that unemployment contributes to depression, it is also possible that individuals suffering from depression may be more likely to lose their job and to struggle to find new employment.

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Bottom Line These findings suggest that emotional wellbeing deteriorates with length of unemployment, and even those unemployed for less than a month are not immune from the stressors of joblessness. However, it is important to note that the data do not prove causality and that other explanations could exist. For example, individuals who experience lower emotional wellbeing may be more likely to become unemployed or to have difficulty finding new employment. Still, as unemployment drags on and optimism for finding a job in the near future declines, being without a job appears to be taking an emotional toll on unemployed individuals. Survey Methods

These results are based on April 19-June 3 interviews with 2,843 unemployed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking and the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Gallup classifies respondents as unemployed if they are not working, are actively looking for work, and are available for work. Gallup classifies respondents as employed if they are working full time or are working part time but do not want to work full time. Gallup previously reported findings regarding the length of unemployment and revealed that 35% of unemployed Americans have been actively looking for work six months or more, while approximately 25% have been looking one month or less. The majority of the unemployed are “struggling” (56%), which stands in contrast to the less than half of the employed who are struggling (38%). The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index classifies Americans as either “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering,” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. As length of unemployment increases for those who are unemployed, the percentage of those struggling also increases. Relatively few of the unemployed are classified as suffering, regardless of length of unemployment.

Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 2,843 national adults, aged 18 and older, who are not working, who are actively looking for work, and who available for work, as conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 19-June 3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2.3 percentage points. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted on the basis of gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 09, 2010 FOR MAJORITY OF VOTERS, NATIONAL ISSUES PARAMOUNT IN 2010 VOTE Republicans especially likely to consider national issues more important in vote for Congress by Lydia Saad By 55% to 39%, more registered voters say a candidate’s stand on national issues—rather than his or her ability to help people at the district level—is what matters more to them in voting for Congress. The percentage naming issues as the more important factor is the highest recorded on this measure in the nearly two-decade-long Gallup trend, although similar to that seen at points in the last two midterm election years.

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Politics Are More Local for Democrats Than for Republicans Republicans are considerably more likely than Democrats to emphasize national issues in their assessments of candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives. Whereas a solid majority of Republican registered voters, 63%, say a candidate’s positions on national issues are paramount to them, Democratic voters are evenly split at 46% in their emphasis on issues vs. district performance. Notably, the majority of political independents share Republicans’ greater concern for national issues.

Gallup trends document an increase in the percentage citing national issues among all three party groups since 1994, but the increase has been particularly steep among Republicans and independents.

Additionally, even along ideological lines, the right side of the political spectrum puts more emphasis on national issues in voting for Congress than does the left. According to the May 24-25, 2010, USA Today/Gallup survey, the percentage of conservatives citing issues is 10 points higher than that of liberals, 61% vs. 51%. Bottom Line The maxim that “all politics is local”—most famously advanced by the late House Speaker Tip O’Neill—may have once been an accu-

rate characterization of the relationship that congressional candidates had with their constituents. In that vein, as recently as 1994, significantly more registered voters said that delivering for their district was more important to the way they viewed congressional candidates than were national issue stances. However, since 1994—perhaps because of the nationalization of that election with the Republicans’ Contract With America—Americans’ voting priorities have flipped. In a year when voters rank the federal budget deficit as high as terrorism as a top concern, the implications are clear. Twenty years ago, candidates for Congress might have ingratiated themselves with voters by bulleting all of the federal spending projects they either had delivered to the district, or would support if elected. Today, such messages may be more likely to spark constituents’ concerns about the effect the spending involved could have on the national debt. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of 946 registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 10, 2010 RENEWED POSITIVITY DRIVES U.S. WELL-BEING INDEX TO NEW HIGH Life evaluation ratings show psychological recovery from economic collapse is well underway by Elizabeth Mendes Americans rated their lives better in May than in any other month since Gallup and Healthways began tracking life evaluation. This improvement to 50.7 on the Life Evaluation Index helped promote a new high overall Well-Being Index score of 67.4 in May, surpassing the previous high of 67.0 found in three separate prior months. Americans’ wellbeing has clearly rebounded since the depths of the financial crisis when the Life Evaluation Index deteriorated to a

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low point of 33.1 in November 2008 and the Well-Being Index dropped to a low of 63.3 in December of that same year. The Well-Being Index is an average of six sub-indexes: Life Evaluation, Emotional Health, Healthy Behavior, Physical Health, Basic Access, and Work Environment. Gallup and Healthways track each of these indexes daily and publish monthly updates on Gallup.com. The Life Evaluation Index classifies Americans as either “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering,” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale based on the Cantril SelfAnchoring Striving Scale. More Americans were thriving in May 2010 and fewer were struggling than in any previous month Gallup and Healthways has measured.

The new high number of Americans who are thriving comes at a time when Gallup is also finding improvements in its Job Creation Index and Consumer Spending measures. In addition to the improvement in the Life Evaluation Index, an increase in the Healthy Behavior Index score also contributed to the overall Well-Being Index increase. The Healthy Behavior Index, which tracks Americans’ exercise, eating, and smoking habits, was also higher in May (65.2) than in April (64.9), consistent with seasonal effects. Importantly, the latest Healthy Behavior Index score is significantly higher than the 63.1 from May of last year and similar to the 65.0 found in May 2008. The improvement in healthy behaviors in 2010 compared with 2009 is consistent with specific findings on exercise. More Americans are exercising frequently this year than last year when exercise levels dropped far below those reported in 2008. Bottom Line More than a year and half after the September 2008 economic collapse, Americans are proving ferociously resilient. Even amid con-

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tinued high unemployment—15 million were out of work in May— more Americans are now thriving in terms of their outlook on their lives than were at any point since Gallup and Healthways began tracking, including the months before the financial meltdown. This psychological recovery could be key to further improvement in tangible economic outcomes such as spending and hiring. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index survey May 1-May 31, 2010, with a random sample of 29,199 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 10, 2010 AMERICANS LACK CONSENSUS ON DESIRABILITY OF DIVIDED GOVERNMENT Preferences usually depend on current power arrangement in Washington by Jeffrey M. Jones A plurality of Americans, 39%, say it makes no difference whether Congress and the presidency are controlled by the same or different parties, while the remainder show nearly equal support for divided (30%) and unified (27%) party government. Bottom Line

The lack of consensus on divided versus unified party government has been the norm in the eight years Gallup has asked this question, with “no difference” usually the plurality response. Americans’ relative preferences for divided or one-party government have shifted during this time, reflecting the popularity of the president, and current party control of Congress and the presidency at the time of the survey.

Thus, it appears Americans’ attitudes toward divided or oneparty government are not fixed but vary to some degree in response to the prevailing political environment. A look at Americans’ preferences by party affiliation makes this clearer. Currently, with a Democratic president and Democratic control of Congress, Americans who identify politically as Democrats show a decided preference for same-party control of the presidency and Congress (41%) over divided control (13%). However, Democrats are about as likely to say it makes no difference as to say it is better to have one-party control. In contrast, Republicans clearly prefer divided control over unified government, 44% to 20%. And though independents are most likely to say it makes no difference whether the executive and legislative branches are controlled by the same or different parties, more independents prefer divided party control than unified control. The current preferences by party are essentially the reverse of what was seen in June 2006, when Republicans had control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, and George W. Bush’s popularity was sagging.

Americans have not shown a consistent preference for divided or unified party government in recent years—typically, the greatest percentage say it makes no difference to the country. This lack of consistency is in part because partisans’ preferences appear to be largely contingent on whether divided or unified government would help their party gain the greatest amount of political power they could reasonably expect it to gain in the next election. Republicans may attempt to promote divided government to encourage votes for Republican candidates in this fall’s midterm elections and to serve as a check on President Obama and the Democratically controlled Congress. However, it is not clear from the Gallup data that Americans necessarily view divided government as desirable or unified party control as undesirable. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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June 11, 2010 HISPANIC VOTERS’ PREFERENCES UNCHANGED POST-ARIZONA LAW Two-to-one preference for Democrat is nearly identical to intentions before passage by Frank Newport Hispanic voters nationwide haven’t shifted their congressional voting preferences since the signing of Arizona’s new immigration law on April 23. Their preference for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate, 61% to 32%, in April 23 to June 8 interviewing almost identically matches the 60% to 32% margin recorded between March 1 and April 22. White voters and black voters also haven’t changed their voting intentions.

The Arizona immigration statute generated substantial news coverage during the time when it first became law, including critical commentary from President Obama himself. Some news coverage focused on the possible political implications of the law for the Hispanic vote this fall. Because the Arizona legislature that passed the law was Republican-controlled and because Democrats have been among the most vocal critics of the law, some observers hypothesized that Democrats could gain and Republicans could lose among Hispanic voters as a result. But that does not appear to be the case—at least to this point in time. That said, President Obama’s job approval rating is down among Hispanics this year. This drop appears to have begun prior to the April 23 signing of the new Arizona law. It should be noted that the drop in Obama’s approval rating between January and May of this year was primarily among Hispanics who chose to be interviewed in Spanish, while the current sample of registered-voter Hispanics includes significantly fewer of this group. Enthusiasm Hispanics are slightly less likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, compared with whites or blacks. Enthusiasm among Hispanics ticked up very slightly between the two periods, while enthusiasm dwindled slightly among whites and blacks. These changes are not substantial enough to suggest major changes in the political climate, although they deserve monitoring between now and the election on Nov. 2. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking March 1-June 8, 2010, with a random sample

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of Hispanic registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of 548 Hispanic registered voters interviewed March 1-April 22, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 459 Hispanic registered voters interviewed April 23-June 8, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 14, 2010 NEAR-RECORD 49% SAY DEMOCRATIC PARTY “TOO LIBERAL” More Americans than in 2009 say Republican Party’s views are about right by Jeffrey M. Jones In the past two years, Americans have become increasingly likely to describe the Democratic Party’s views as “too liberal” (49%), and less likely to say its views are “about right” (38%). Americans’ views of the Republican Party, on the other hand, have moderated slightly, with a dip in the percentage saying the GOP is too conservative from 43% last year to 40% today, and an increase in the percentage saying it is about right, from 34% to 41%.

ceived as too ideologically extreme. Indeed, a common strategy in U.S. electoral politics is for Republican candidates to try to paint their Democratic opponents as too far left, and Democratic candidates to try to convince voters that their Republican opponents are too far right. Currently, by 49% to 40%, more Americans perceive the Democratic Party as too liberal than say the Republican Party is too conservative, giving the Republicans an advantage in an important election year. With Election Day more than four months away, however, the Democratic Party has an opportunity in the 2010 campaign to try to alter voters’ perceptions of the party’s ideology. Survey Methods

The recent increase in perceptions of the Democratic Party as too liberal could be a response to the expansion in government spending since President Barack Obama took office, most notably regarding the economic stimulus and healthcare legislation. The 49% of Americans who now believe the Democratic Party’s views are too liberal is one percentage point below the 50% Gallup measured after the 1994 elections, the all-time high in the trend question first asked in 1992. Since February 2008, the percentage calling the Democratic Party “too liberal” has increased by 12 points among independents and 8 points among Republicans, with little change among Democrats.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25, 2010, with a random sample of 1,049 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 15, 2010 AMERICANS WANT BP TO PAY ALL LOSSES, NO MATTER THE COST Americans of all political identifications agree that Obama has not been tough enough with BP by Frank Newport While significantly more Americans now view the Democratic Party as “too liberal” than “about right,” the net result of the changes in Americans’ perceptions of the Republican Party is that now about as many Americans say the GOP is “about right” as say it is “too conservative.” Even so, the percentage saying the Republican Party is too conservative remains near the upper range of what Gallup has measured since 1992. Bottom Line In their efforts to attract widespread voter support in general elections, parties and their candidates generally want to avoid being per-

The majority of Americans (59%) say BP should pay for all financial losses resulting from the Gulf Coast oil spill, including wages of workers put out of work, even if those payments ultimately drive the company out of business. Seven out of 10 Americans (71%) say Obama has not been tough enough in his dealings with BP. The results are from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted June 11-13 as President Obama made a two-day trip to the Gulf area and prepared to speak to the nation on the oil spill situation Tuesday. Obama on Monday talked to oil spill cleanup workers, political leaders, and average citizens in the Gulf area, expressing concern and pressing those involved to step up efforts to control the effects of the

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spill. Obama will meet in person with BP executives on Wednesday to discuss the spill. These efforts come at a time when neither Obama nor BP gets stellar ratings for their handling of the oil spill, although Obama’s ratings are clearly less negative than BP’s.

The majority of Americans (53%) rate Obama’s handling of the spill as “poor” or “very poor,” compared with 81% who give BP the same rating. Obama’s ratings have not changed significantly over the past two and a half weeks, although slightly more Americans now rate the job he is doing as “very poor.” At the same time, more Americans (49%) now say BP is doing a very poor job of handling the spill, up from 39%. A separate Gallup poll conducted June 5-6 found that Obama’s job approval rating on handling the oil spill was 40%. Democrats More Positive About Obama’s Handling of Spill Partisanship is very much evident in Americans’ views about Obama’s response to the oil spill, with 79% of Republicans, compared with 59% of independents and 27% of Democrats, rating his efforts as poor or very poor. Americans regardless of political identification for the most part agree that BP has done a poor job. Remarkably, there is little difference across Democrats, independents, and Republicans in their feelings about Obama’s “toughness” in his dealings with BP. In fact, an identical 73% of Democrats and Republicans say Obama is not being tough enough with BP (while 68% of independents agree). This unanimity of opinion among those who identify with the two major parties is highly unusual in the generally very partisan environment in which a president operates in contemporary America. Republicans are more lenient in their views on the liability BP should be expected to sustain as a result of the spill. Forty-nine percent say BP should pay for as much of the financial losses as it can afford while still remaining viable—compared with 32% of Democrats and 36% of independents. Democrats and independents are more likely to say BP should pay for damages even if it forces the company out of business.

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Bottom Line President Obama’s very public efforts this week to show his concern about the oil spill and to be harsher with BP appear to be generally responsive to Americans’ concerns evident in recent polling on the issue. Most Americans say the president to date has not been tough enough with the oil company, and a majority say he has done a poor job of responding to the spill. A majority also want BP to pay for the damages and lost wages caused by the spill, even if the company is forced to go out of business. Trends in Obama’s overall job approval rating in recent weeks suggest that he has yet to suffer politically concomitant with the period after the spill. At the same time, the president’s ratings on handling the spill are below his overall approval rating. Obama and his advisers’ decisions to have the president focus directly on the spill for much of this week—even canceling a planned trip to Australia and Indonesia—would appear to be at least partially designed to bolster his standing with the public. Gallup Daily tracking of Obama’s job approval rating over the weeks and months ahead will document the extent to which this strategy succeeds. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 515 national adults in Form A and 499 national adults in Form B, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 16, 2010 MANY AMERICANS SAY GULF BEACHES, WILDLIFE WILL NEVER RECOVER Nearly all agree that full recovery will take 10 years or more by Lydia Saad From what they have seen of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill rolling onto America’s shores, nearly half of Americans (49%) believe that at least some of the affected beaches will never recover. Even more, 59%, believe normal levels for some animal species will never be restored.

More generally, Americans foresee a very long road to recovery for both the U.S. beaches and wildlife affected by the BP oil spill. The vast majority believe it will be a decade or more, if at all, before either aspect of the Gulf environment is back to normal; few think a full recovery will happen within four years. Separately, Americans broadly agree that the oil spill will negatively affect the U.S. economy and the U.S. consumer. Roughly four in five believe the overall U.S. economy will be hurt, that gas prices will go up, and that food prices will increase.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 16, 2010 AT 18.6%, UNDEREMPLOYMENT AT LOWEST LEVEL OF THE YEAR Unemployment falls to 9.1%; part-time workers wanting full-time work falls to 9.5% by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist The underemployment rate, as measured by Gallup, fell from 19.2% in mid-May to 18.6% in mid-June, its lowest level of the year.

Bottom Line In his remarks when visiting the Gulf shoreline this week, as well as in his Oval Office address Tuesday night, President Obama has stressed the need for a long-term commitment to the oil spill cleanup. Americans may be getting impatient with BP and the federal government for not doing enough to cap the gushing oil rig and contain the leaked oil, but it appears they are resigned to a lengthy process to restore the beaches and wildlife, with perhaps limited success.

Gallup’s underemployment measure includes both the unemployed and those working part time but wanting full-time work. It is based on more than 17,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period and reported daily and weekly. Gallup’s results are not seasonally adjusted and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

Fewer Unemployed, Fewer Part-Time Employees Wanting Full-Time Work The unemployment component of Gallup’s underemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) continues to improve, declining to 9.1% in

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mid-June from 9.4% in mid-May. Gallup’s unemployment rate was as high as 10.3% just two months ago. At the same time, the percentage of employees working part time who want full-time work fell to 9.5% in mid-June from 9.8% in mid-May.

However, Job Creation May Be Slowing Gallup’s Job Creation Index, a separate measure of the job market based on the self-reports of working Americans, is at +6 for the week ending June 13. This is a relatively positive read compared with the beginning of the year, but is down from +8 the prior week and +9 in late May. As of mid-June, 28% of employees report that their companies are hiring, while 22% say their companies are letting people go.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 17, 2010 IN U.S., ECONOMY, OIL SPILL RANK AS MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS Spike for “disaster response” mentions is second only to that for “terrorism” after 9/11 by Jeffrey M. Jones The ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has catapulted “natural disaster response and relief” into the top five of Gallup’s monthly “most important problem” list. At 18%, disaster response now trails only the economy and unemployment as the United States’ most important problem. Dissatisfaction with government and healthcare are also cited by at least 10% of Americans in the June 11-13 Gallup poll.

Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Gallup’s underemployment results are based on more than 17,000 telephone interviews completed on a 30-day rolling basis. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Gallup’s Job Creation Index is based on more than 3,000 telephone interviews completed on a weekly basis. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

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Though the explosion of the BP rig that caused the oil spill occurred in late April, the issue did not appear as a major concern among a large percentage of Americans until this month. In the May 3-6 update on the most important problem, only 1% of Americans mentioned natural disaster response, compared with the current 18%. The 17 percentage-point increase from May to June ranks among the largest one-month changes in the percentage mentioning any issue as the most important problem since Gallup began asking this question on a monthly basis in 2001. In fact, the only larger onemonth increase was the 46-point spike in the percentage mentioning terrorism after the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001. There was a 13-point increase in the percentage mentioning natural disasters (from 0% to 13%) after Hurricane Katrina in September 2005.

The increased concern about the oil spill is the most notable change from last month; however, there were also slight declines in the percentages mentioning healthcare and immigration. The percentages mentioning economic issues—the top issues in May—were generally steady.

Democrats generally rate the economy as a greater problem than do Republicans, particularly in terms of unemployment. Republicans, on the other hand, are more likely to be concerned with the federal budget deficit and to express frustration with government and the people who run it. Party groups are equally likely to mention disaster response and healthcare as the most important problem.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 17, 2010 AMERICANS BACK MORE STIMULUS SPENDING TO CREATE JOBS Republicans and independents favor repealing healthcare reform by Lydia Saad Among four pieces of legislation Congress could consider this year, Americans are most supportive of authorizing more economic stimulus spending. Specifically, according to a June 11-13 USA Today/ Gallup poll, 60% of Americans say they would favor “additional government spending to create jobs and stimulate the economy.”

Implications The oil spill has been the dominant issue over the last two months, with Americans keeping close tabs on it and, as a result, they now recognize it as one of the most important problems facing the country. Nevertheless, economic concerns persist and are more commonly mentioned than the oil spill. It is possible that the oil spill may rank as a greater priority now, in the days since the poll was conducted, given President Obama’s nationally televised address on the issue Tuesday night—particularly the government’s focus on the efforts needed to ensure that the damage the oil spill has caused is repaired. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Nearly as many Americans—56%—favor regulating energy output from private companies, a key element of the “cap and trade” bill that has been stalled in Congress and that President Obama alluded to in his Tuesday night Oval Office address. However, it should be noted that the question highlights the positive goal of reducing global warming, but not any of the potential costs for business and consumers. Independents Open to All Proposals Republicans and Democrats are diametrically opposed in their reactions to the proposals tested in the new poll, while a slim majority of independents favor all four—including repealing healthcare reform. Large majorities of Democrats would like to see increased regulation of financial institutions, new laws regulating energy use by

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private companies, and more economic stimulus spending; smaller majorities of Republicans oppose each of these. Conversely, Republicans broadly favor repealing the new healthcare reform law, while two-thirds of Democrats are opposed. Stimulus spending emerges as the most widely favored proposal of the four, overall, because of support that is particularly high from Democrats (83%) and relatively high from Republicans (38%) compared with the other Democrat-favored items.

850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 18, 2010 PHYSICAL HEALTH KEY TO WORK STATUS, WELLBEING FOR THOSE 60-69 Among those who are healthy, work status has little relationship to emotional wellbeing by Frank Newport and Jenny Marlar

Bottom Line

Working Americans aged 60-69 have slightly better emotional health than those who do not work, according to the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. This relationship is primarily evident among the relatively small numbers of Americans aged 60-69 who have fair or poor health. Among the 75% of the 60- to 69-year-old population who have excellent, very good, or good health, however, there is virtually no difference in emotional health by work status.

The American public has a generally positive reaction to each of four varied pieces of legislation Congress might consider this year, with slim majorities of political independents in favor of all of them. While none of the four proposals bridges partisan disagreement, the idea of new economic stimulus spending to create jobs generates the most crossover appeal from Republicans while achieving particularly high support from Democrats. Americans’ support for jobs-directed stimulus spending may seem at odds with separate Gallup polling showing significant public concern about the federal debt. However, it should be noted that the stimulus question wording highlights the economic benefits of new spending. In line with this, recent Gallup polling has found that despite their debt concerns, more Americans choose the economy than the federal budget deficit when asked how important each will be to their vote for Congress this fall. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and

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The current analysis is based on more than 70,000 interviews with those aged 60 to 69 conducted between May 2009 and April 2010 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index and Gallup Daily tracking. Gallup classifies respondents as “employed” if they are employed full time or are employed part time but do not want to work full time. Those “not in the workforce” are not working and are not looking for or available for work. A third category, those classified as “underemployed” because they are employed part time but want to work full time or are not working but would like to work, is not included in this analysis. According to Gallup surveys, working Americans expect to retire at older ages now than they did 15 years ago. The question

remains as to whether working longer is good for these Americans’ emotional wellbeing, or if it is a negative, particularly if those who work in their 60s are doing so primarily out of economic necessity. For some people, working provides life meaning, and retirement before it is absolutely necessary is anathema. For others, work is a negative aspect of life and they look forward to retirement as a pending psychological nirvana. Even if modest, the overall relationship between working and emotional wellbeing noted previously might lead to the conclusion that working causes better emotional health. But further analysis shows that physical health is a major intervening variable in the relationship, making conclusions about causality more difficult to establish. By way of background, the data clearly show a direct relationship between physical health and the likelihood of working among 60- to 69-year-olds.

Implications According to Gallup surveys, more than a third of non-retirees say they will retire after age 65, compared with 12% who planned on waiting that long to retire back in 1995. There are many reasons why people decide to retire when they do, including in particular economic necessity. Whatever cause, the question of whether working is emotionally good or bad for Americans in their 60s is an interesting and important one. Some workers look forward to retirement as a surcease from the daily toll of their work, and for them, being out of the labor force could have a salubrious effect on their emotional wellbeing. Other workers derive much of their self-worth and meaning from work, and for them, leaving the workforce could cause a drop in their emotional wellbeing. The current research suggests that for healthy workers, there is no evidence that such attitudes toward work make a difference, at least as measured by emotional health. Workers in the 60- to 69-year age range with good health have essentially the same emotional health as those who are not working. For those with fair or poor health, working does appear to be associated with slightly higher emotional health—suggesting that for these individuals working may provide meaning or a focus outside of their physical problems. Survey Methods

Better physical health is also associated with better emotional health among this age group.

Both relationships hold across genders and across income groups. These data help explain why there is little difference by work status in emotional health among those who have good physical health. Those who are physically healthy are more likely to work and more likely to have higher emotional wellbeing. There is a slightly different pattern among the 25% of the 60- to 69-year-old population who have fair or poor health. The relatively small percentage of this group who are working (24% of those with fair health and 11% of those with poor health) do have better emotional health than those in these health segments who are out of the workforce. Emotional health is lower among all of these individuals in general because physical health is related to emotional health. But there appears to be a modest positive benefit of working among those with fair or poor health.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking with a random sample of 73,173 national adults, aged 60 to 69, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Interviews were conducted May 1, 2009-April 30, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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June 21, 2010 REPUBLICANS’ MIDTERM VOTING ENTHUSIASM TOPS PRIOR YEARS Relative enthusiasm advantage for GOP over Democrats largest in Gallup history dating to 1994 by Jeffrey M. Jones An average of 59% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have said they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year compared with past elections, the highest average Gallup has found in a midterm election year for either party since the question was first asked in 1994.

The enthusiasm question has generally provided an accurate indication of which party will fare better in the midterm elections. Since 1994, the party that has had a relative advantage on the enthusiasm measure has gained congressional seats in that midterm election year. Specifically, Republicans gained seats in 1994 and 2002, while Democrats gained in 2006. In 1998, Democrats gained seats even though Republicans had an advantage on enthusiasm for most of the year. In the final poll before the 1998 midterm elections, Democrats held a slight two-point advantage in net enthusiasm. Aside from 1998, party advantages in enthusiasm have been established early in a midterm election year and have persisted throughout the year. Thus, it would be unlikely, though not unprecedented, for political conditions to change enough between now and Election Day to wipe out the Republican advantage in enthusiasm. And if that advantage persists, the Republican Party will likely be celebrating gains in congressional seats after Election Day. Survey Methods

The prior high for a party group was 50% more enthusiastic for Democrats in 2006, which is the only one of the last five midterm election years in which Democrats have had an enthusiasm advantage. In that election, Democrats won back control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. The current average is based on four measures of this enthusiasm question since February, including the recent June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll. In that poll, 53% of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting and 39% were less enthusiastic, while 35% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting and 56% were less enthusiastic. Republicans’ net score of +14 more enthusiastic in the latest poll compared with the Democrats’ net score of -21 represents the largest relative party advantage Gallup has measured in a single midterm election-year poll. More generally, Republicans have shown a decided relative advantage in enthusiasm throughout 2010, averaging a net score of +28, compared with Democrats’ net score of 0. The 28 percentage-point party difference in net scores on the “more enthusiastic than usual” question in 2010 is the highest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year, with 1994’s 17-point Republican advantage the only other midterm election-year gap coming close.

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Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 458 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 466 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 21, 2010 OBAMA RECEIVES 44% APPROVAL ON OIL SPILL WHILE BP GETS 16% Obama’s overall job approval rating, at 47% last week, is little changed by Frank Newport Americans give President Obama a 44% approval rating on his handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, up slightly from 40% in early June. Meanwhile, 16% of Americans approve of BP’s handling of the spill.

These data are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted June 19-20. During the three-day period of June 18-20, President Obama’s three-day job approval rating was 49%. Obama’s approval on the oil spill trailed his overall approval rating by seven percentage points in polling conducted during the period of June 4-6, 40% to 47%, meaning approval on both measures has increased at least marginally over the past two weeks. In the current poll, 40% of Americans disapprove of how both Obama and BP are handling the spill. The next-largest group of 32% approve of Obama’s actions relating to the oil spill, but not BP’s. Ten percent approve of both; 6% approve of BP but not Obama.

19-20 poll. These results suggest a possibly slight benefit to Obama from his recent visits to the Gulf region, culminating in his nationally televised address from the Oval Office last Tuesday. There is less evidence that the oil spill has affected Obama’s standing in the public’s eye from a comparison of his weekly overall job approval average before the BP spill on April 20 with his average after the spill. Obama’s ratings have been slightly lower in the last four weeks than they were in the four weeks prior to that, but his average in either time period is not much different from his 48% average in the four weeks immediately prior to the spill.

Bottom Line President Obama gets substantially higher approval ratings for handling the Gulf Coast oil spill than does BP, and Obama’s approval ratings both on the spill and overall have edged up slightly over the last two weeks. However, weekly trends in Obama’s overall job approval rating show no significant impact from the oil spill; his weekly average now is little different from what it was in the weeks prior to the spill. Survey Methods

These views are highly partisan. • Sixty-one percent of Republicans and independents who lean Republican disapprove of both Obama’s and BP’s handling of the spill. The percentage of Republicans who approve of BP’s actions and disapprove of Obama’s is about the same as the percentage who approve of Obama but disapprove of BP. • The majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (56%) approve of Obama’s handling of the oil spill while disapproving of BP’s, but a not insubstantial 24% disapprove of both. No Sign That Obama’s Overall Job Approval Rating Has Been Significantly Affected The trend data show a four-point increase in approval of Obama’s handling of the oil spill between Gallup’s June 5-6 poll and the June

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking June 19-20, 2010, with a random sample of 1,046 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting

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targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Republican year in recent memory, the generic ballot results among all registered voters generally showed a tied race or a Republican advantage for most of that election year. Thus, this year’s generic ballot results suggest a better Republican year than Democratic year. If polling continues to show a close race, Democrats would need unusually strong turnout to be competitive in the fall. Perhaps in recognition of these patterns, the Democratic Party has announced an unprecedented voter mobilization effort to try to turn out sympathetic voters in an attempt to hold on to the gains they have made in the past two elections. GOP Voters Continue to Be More Enthusiastic

June 22, 2010 REGISTERED VOTERS’ HOUSE VOTING PREFERENCES TIED AT 46% Preferences have been closely divided for much of the year

Republicans also continue to hold an advantage in expressed enthusiasm about voting. Currently, 42% of Republicans say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 27% of Democrats. That 15-point gap in enthusiasm is typical of what Gallup has measured this year.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Registered voters divide evenly when asked which party’s candidate they would vote for if the congressional elections were held today, with 46% preferring the Republican candidate and 46% the Democratic candidate. Registered voters’ preferences have generally been closely divided since Gallup began tracking preferences in March.

Republicans continue to hold an edge in enthusiasm even though overall voter enthusiasm is down from earlier in the campaign. In late March, 40% of all registered voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting. In the latest data, 31% are, and since mid-May the number has been no higher than 33%.

Gallup tracks U.S. House voting preferences using the generic ballot for Congress. The generic ballot has proven an accurate predictor of the actual vote for the U.S. House in midterm elections. The latest results are based on interviews with U.S. registered voters conducted June 14-20 on the Gallup Daily tracking survey. In recent weeks there have been some fluctuations within a three-point range in the percentages preferring the Republican (from 46% to 49%) and Democratic (from 43% to 46%) candidates. All of these fluctuations are within the margin of sampling error. Nevertheless, all of the recent results are more favorable to Republicans than Democrats. Historically, Democrats have almost always led on the generic ballot among all registered voters. But the size of that lead usually shrinks once turnout is factored in (something Gallup typically does in the fall of a midterm election year), given usual Republican advantages in voter turnout. Democrats typically need a cushion of at least five percentage points among registered voters to maintain an advantage once turnout is taken into account. For example, Democrats consistently led by double digits among voters in 2006 before winning enough seats to take party control of the U.S. House, so they still held an advantage even with a Republican edge in turnout. In 1994, however, the best 206

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Bottom Line Though there have recently been some minor fluctuations in Gallup’s weekly tracking results of registered voters’ congressional voting preferences, these have generally been fairly closely divided this year, and they point to a better year for Republicans than for Democrats. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking/the Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index survey June 14-20, 2010, with a random sample of 1,612 adults, aged

18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

number of consumer-oriented healthcare regulations under the umbrella of a “patients’ bill of rights.” However, highlighting the anemic nature of public support for the new healthcare legislation, the June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll also shows 50% of Americans in favor of Congress’ repealing all or much of the law. Public reviews of the healthcare reform bill continue to be highly partisan. Roughly three-quarters of Democrats (76%) and liberals (78%) call its passage a good thing, compared with 17% of Republicans and 22% of conservatives. Independents lean against the bill by an eight-point margin, 51% to 43%, largely unchanged from April.

On the basis of age, the largest well of opposition is found among seniors, 60% of whom call passage of the bill a bad thing, similar to the 57% in April. By contrast, attitudes are more favorable than unfavorable among young and middle-aged adults.

June 22, 2010 VERDICT ON HEALTHCARE REFORM BILL STILL DIVIDED Among age groups, seniors continue to be the most opposed by Lydia Saad The healthcare reform legislation Congress passed in late March divided the public then and has not gained significant support in the three months since.

Bottom Line New Gallup polling finds that Americans remain about equally divided in their reactions to Congress’ passage of healthcare reform legislation earlier this year. Seniors—who were among the most widely opposed to the legislation prior to passage, given their broad satisfaction with the status quo under Medicare—have not relented in opposing the bill. And while one might expect the highly charged views of partisans to remain fixed, as they have, it is noteworthy that support among independents has not grown. The 49% of Americans who today say passage of healthcare reform was a good thing, compared with 46% calling it a bad thing, is a bit more positive than the two prior readings in which the slight plurality called it a bad thing. However, the four percentage-point increase since April in favorability toward the law, from 45% to 49%, is not statistically significant. President Obama on Tuesday marked the 90-day anniversary of his signing of the healthcare reform bill into law by announcing a

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 23, 2010 AMERICANS SEE CONGRESS AS INEFFECTIVE, SELFSERVING, ENTRENCHED Americans want most members of Congress ousted by Frank Newport Americans who believe most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected support their position by saying representatives are simply doing a bad job, that they have been in office too long, that they are not making decisions based on what’s best for the country, or that they are too focused on self-interest, special interests, and partisanship. Relatively few cite Congress’ performance on specific issues.

More than 6 out of 10 Americans in Gallup polls conducted this year have consistently said “most members of Congress” do not deserve re-election. These are the highest numbers in Gallup’s history of asking this question. These data underscore this year’s conventional wisdom that 2010 is a particularly bad time for congressional incumbents. Americans’ approval of Congress in the same June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll is at 20%, at the low end of the historical range of that measure. Favorable ratings of both political parties are also near record lows. A recent Gallup poll also found that, by about a 2-to-1 ratio, Americans prefer a candidate who has never been in Congress to an incumbent. There are a number of theories as to why Americans are so down on their elected representatives, but there is little empirical evidence that addresses the issue directly. In the June 11-13 poll, the 659 respondents who said most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected were asked to explain in their own words why they felt that way. The responses were recorded verbatim and coded into categories. Although there are some specific complaints about issues, the most prevalent explanations for why Americans think most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected deal with broader concerns. • The most frequently given response, mentioned by 29%, is fairly straightforward and direct, if not a bit tautological: Members of Congress are doing a bad job or just are not doing their job, period. • The next-most prevalent responses focus on the perception that members of Congress are making decisions based on inappropriate or ineffective criteria (self-interest, partisanship, special interests), with the result that they are not working for all Americans and the interests of the entire country. • Fifteen percent of those who believe most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected say it is because they have been there too long and that there is a need for new blood. This is not a new complaint. In 1996, for example, 74% of Americans were in favor of a constitutional amendment to limit the number of terms that members of Congress and the U.S. Senate could serve. • The final category of responses—representing only a minority of all anti-incumbency explanations given—contains a broad list of specific criticisms, including debt, economic issues, healthcare legislation, financial bailouts, wars, and immigration issues. Partisan Differences Differences between the two partisan groups are minor, with a few notable exceptions: • Republicans are more likely to say members of Congress do not act in the interests of the country as a whole and are not listening to the American people. Democrats are more likely to say that members are too partisan. • Republicans are slightly more likely to mention the federal debt and healthcare legislation. Bottom Line Americans are not enamored with the job members of Congress are currently doing in representing the public’s interests in Washington, D.C. A Gallup open-ended question probing the reasons for this helps explain why a majority say most members do not deserve

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phone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 24, 2010 LOW APPROVAL OF CONGRESS POINTS TO HIGH SEAT CHANGE IN NOV. President’s party on average loses 29 seats when Congress approval is below 40% by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans continue to give Congress low approval ratings this year, with 20% approving in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. Recent ratings of Congress are only slightly improved from the near-record low obtained in March.

to be re-elected. Americans’ anti-incumbent sentiment focuses more on general, philosophical concerns rather than on specific issues. How incumbent representatives can alter these perceptions in time to stave off a major turnover in Congress in this fall’s midterm election is a question whose answer is not immediately clear. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 659 national adults who say most members of Congress do not deserve to be re-elected, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. tele-

From a historical perspective, Americans’ job approval ratings of Congress in 2010 rank among the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year. The 16% recorded in March is the lowest single reading in a midterm election year, just above the low from all years of 14% in July 2008. This year’s low approval ratings for Congress are a potentially ominous sign for President Obama and the Democratic majority in Congress. Gallup has found greater party seat change in Congress in midterm elections when Congress has had low approval ratings. Specifically, in the five midterm elections in which Congress’ approval ratings at the time of the election were below 40%, there was an average net change in seats of 29 from the president’s party to the opposition. That includes the 1994 and 2006 elections, when the net change in seats was large enough to pass control of the U.S. House from one party to the other. There has been far less party seat change when Congress’ approval ratings exceeded 40%. This has been the case in only three midterm elections (1986, 1998, and 2002); Americans typically do not rate Congress all that positively. In each of these elections, the net seat change by party was five or six seats. There is little in the historical record to suggest that Congress’ approval rating could reach the 40% level this year. In 1990, 1994, and 2006, Congress’ approval ratings began the year under 30% and stayed below that mark for the entirety of those election years. Only in 1974 did Congress’ approval rating start low and show significant improvement. Richard Nixon’s resignation as president due to the

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Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Watergate scandal sparked a brief rally in support for government leaders, which moved Congress’ approval score from 30% in April to 47% in August. However, by the time of the 1974 elections, Congress’ approval rating had fallen back to 35%. (Gallup asked about Congress approval only once each in 1978 and 1982.) In 1998 and 2002, two years in which Congress’ approval ratings were above 40%, its ratings started the year above 40% and never fell below that mark. (Gallup asked about Congress approval only once in 1986.)

June 24, 2010 U.S. ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DEPRESSED IN JUNE Percentage of Americans rating the economy as “getting worse” is similar to year ago by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index worsened in late May through mid-June. Weekly averages were in the -26 to -29 range, compared with -21 to -24 in April and early May. This suggests that Friday’s Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index should decline, although that is far from certain given its relatively small sample size.

Bottom Line Low congressional approval ratings are usually associated with greater party turnover in House seats in a midterm election, and this year’s job approval scores for Congress rank among the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year. Nevertheless, Gallup has found that presidential approval ratings seem to be more predictive of midterm election outcomes than congressional approval is, when the two are at odds. That was the case in 1990, for example, when 26% approved of Congress but 58% approved of President George H.W. Bush, and only eight seats changed party hands. This year, however, President Obama’s approval ratings have mostly been tracking below 50%, and, unlike 1990, both Congress and the presidency are now controlled by the same party. Together, these findings suggest that under the current environment, Democrats could expect to lose a significant number of U.S. House seats on Election Day. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

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Economic Outlook Deteriorating, Matching Bleak View of a Year Ago There has been a steady increase during most of the past seven weeks in the percentage of lower- and middle-income Americans saying economic conditions are “getting worse” in the U.S. as a whole, matching the recessionary levels of a year ago.

Upper-income Americans have also tended to say economic conditions are “getting worse” in larger numbers—percentages similar to those from this time in 2009.

Americans’ worsening economic expectations make sense given recent signs of economic weakness, poor job market conditions, a weak and volatile stock market, and the continuing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is still somewhat disconcerting that expectations are no more hopeful than they were 12 months ago. Monetary and fiscal authorities have taken unprecedented actions to stabilize and stimulate the U.S. economy over the past two years. The fact that Americans are not more optimistic now than they were a year ago says much about the magnitude of the financial and economic crisis, and about how long it will take the economy to recover fully. Survey Methods

“Poor” Ratings of U.S. Economy Approaching Last Year About 44% of lower- and middle-income consumers over the past seven weeks rated current economic conditions as “poor”—slightly below 2009 levels.

More than a third of upper-income consumers also rated current economic conditions as “poor”—generally not as high as in 2009, but not too far distant.

Bottom Line The University of Michigan in its preliminary estimate for June reported that consumer sentiment was up from May and at its highest level since January 2008. Gallup’s Daily tracking of economic confidence suggests just the reverse is the case—confidence has been declining in late May and early June. Significantly, the deterioration has been more pronounced in terms of consumers’ future economic expectations, with consumers of all incomes more negative about the economy’s direction than they were in April and early May. Today’s consumer expectations are close to those of a year ago.

For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup economic confidence results are based on random half-samples of approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Weekly results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,500 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 25, 2010 IN 2010, CONSERVATIVES STILL OUTNUMBER MODERATES, LIBERALS Last year’s increase in conservatism among independents is holding by Lydia Saad Conservatives have maintained their leading position among U.S. ideological groups in the first half of 2010. Gallup finds 42% of Americans describing themselves as either very conservative or conservative. This is up slightly from the 40% seen for all of 2009 and contrasts with the 20% calling themselves liberal or very liberal. The 2010 results are based on eight Gallup and USA Today/ Gallup surveys conducted from January through June, encompassing interviews with more than 8,000 U.S. adults. The 42% identifying as conservative represents a continuation of the slight but

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statistically significant edge conservatives achieved over moderates in 2009. Should that figure hold for all of 2010, it would represent the highest annual percentage identifying as conservative in Gallup’s history of measuring ideology with this wording, dating to 1992. The recent rise in conservatism’s fortunes follows a decline seen after 2003; liberalism has experienced the opposite pattern. From 1993 to 2002, the ideological trend had been fairly stable, with roughly 40% identifying as moderate, 38% as conservative, and 19% as liberal. Before that, the presidential bid of independent candidate Ross Perot may have contributed to a heightened proportion of Americans (43%) calling themselves moderate in 1992.

it is maintained for the full year. This follows an increase in the percentage of conservatives in 2009 that was fueled by heightened conservatism among independents, a pattern that continues today.

Partisans Maintain Their 2009 Ideological Leanings There are no significant changes so far in 2010 compared with 2009 in how Republicans, Democrats, and independents characterize their respective political views. Consistent with the patterns seen last year, nearly 4 in 10 Democrats call themselves liberal and a similar proportion of Democrats say they are moderate. Longer term, Democrats have grown increasingly liberal in their political orientation.

Seven in 10 Republicans continue to call themselves conservative, similar to 2009, while most of the remaining Republicans identify as moderate. Since 2002, however, the percentage conservative has increased by 10 points. Independents today are slightly more likely to say they are moderate than conservative, with fewer than 20% identifying as liberal. While this is similar to 2009, it represents an increase in conservatism among this group since 2008. Bottom Line The ideological orientation of Americans seen thus far in 2010 would represent a record-high level of conservatism (since at least 1992) if 212

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Survey Methods Results are based on the combined findings of eight separate Gallup and USA Today/Gallup surveys conducted from January through June 2010. For results based on the total sample of 8,207 national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Party breakdowns for 2010 are based on 2,395 Republicans, 3,134 independents, and 2,565 Democrats. For results based on samples of these sizes, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 25, 2010 AMERICANS’ CHURCH ATTENDANCE INCHES UP IN 2010 Increase accompanies rise in economic confidence by Frank Newport Americans’ self-reported church attendance has continued to inch up in 2010, with 43.1% of Americans reporting weekly or almost weekly attendance. This is up slightly from 42.8% in 2009 and 42.1% in 2008. The increase comes as Americans’ economic confidence has also risen, suggesting that, instead of church attendance rising when economic times get bad, as some theorize, the opposite pattern may be occurring.

Gallup’s measure of church attendance is based on more than 800,000 interviews collected as part of Gallup Daily tracking between February 2008 and May 2010. The measure asks respondents to report their church, synagogue, or mosque attendance in one of five categories of frequency.

Major correlates of church attendance include politics (with Republicans and conservatives more likely than others to attend), race (with blacks more likely to attend), age (with older Americans more likely to attend), region (highest in the South), marital status (married adults more likely to attend), and gender (women more likely than men to attend). Discussion There has been well-publicized speculation about the possibility that church attendance has risen over the past two years as Americans became more despondent and worried as a result of the economic recession. However, trends in Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, an ongoing measure of perceived economic confidence, reflect just the opposite pattern, with both church attendance and economic confidence increasing from 2008 to 2009, and now into 2010. Such correlations do not prove causality, and it is possible that despite the more positive economic confidence, other economic realities such as unemployment could be related to the increase in church attendance. Still, these particular population-level data do little to directly support the theory that people seek out the solace of religion, as measured in religious service participation, when economic times turn tough. Church Attendance Among Subgroups Gallup Daily tracking also documents the extent to which church attendance varies significantly across subgroups of the U.S. adult population.

Church attendance as measured by these self-reports is generally a very stable measure. Still, given the large sample sizes involved in Gallup Daily tracking, the small increase in attendance between 2008 and so far in 2010 is statistically significant, suggesting that there has in fact been an uptick in religious service participation in the real world over the last 2 ½ years. The fact that economic confidence has also increased over this time period confirms previous findings showing little evidence that increased church attendance is a reaction to perceptions of economic woes. Gallup has also found Americans becoming slightly more conservative in 2009 and so far in 2010. As noted above, conservatives are substantially more likely to attend church than are moderates or, in particular, liberals, suggesting a relationship between this evidence of increasing conservatism and increasing behavioral religiosity. It is possible that demographics could be affecting church attendance. Gallup analysis documents that Americans in their 60s, 70s, and 80s are significantly more likely to attend church than those who are younger. The oldest of the large group of baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) are now entering their 60s. Thus, with each advancing year, more and more baby boomers enter the age range

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that traditionally has been associated with higher religious service participation. If baby boomers do in fact attend church more frequently as they age, it follows that church attendance would increase steadily in the years ahead. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking February 2008-May 2010, with a random sample of a total of 811,895 national adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 311,591 adults interviewed in 2008, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 353,849 adults interviewed in 2009, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 117,156 adults interviewed January-May 2010, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

week, a Rolling Stone magazine article quoted McChrystal and his aides making disparaging comments about members of the Obama administration. Sixty-three percent of Americans say they are following the news of the story closely, including 28% who say very closely. Though most Americans approve of Obama’s decision to oust McChrystal, they don’t necessarily agree that removing the general from his duties was the best way to handle the matter. Specifically, 37% say Obama ideally would have reprimanded McChrystal but not removed him from his command, about the same as the proportion who say removing McChrystal was the best way to handle the situation (38%). Another 12% say Obama should not have taken any action against McChrystal. Fourteen percent do not express an opinion. The vast majority (68%) of those who approve of Obama’s decision agree that removing McChrystal was the best way to handle the matter. Still, more than one-quarter of this group believe a lesser punishment would have been a better course of action. Those who disapprove of Obama’s ouster of McChrystal would generally have preferred that the president reprimand the general.

The more closely Americans are following the story, the more likely they are to view dismissing McChrystal as the best way to handle the situation. June 28, 2010 MOST APPROVE OF OBAMA DECISION TO REMOVE GEN. MCCHRYSTAL Those following story closely back Obama by roughly 2 to 1 by Jeffrey M. Jones A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds a majority of Americans approving of President Obama’s decision to remove Gen. Stanley McChrystal as commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Those who say they are following news of the story “very” or “somewhat closely” approve by close to a 2-to-1 margin. The poll was conducted June 25-26, just days after Obama announced he was relieving McChrystal of his duties. Earlier in the

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The relationship between paying greater attention to the story and a greater likelihood of believing McChrystal’s removal was the

best option is not merely a function of partisanship. Democrats (31%) and Republicans (29%) are about equally likely to be following the story very closely. Partisan Differences Seventy-four percent of Democrats approve of Obama’s decision to remove McChrystal as U.S. commander in Afghanistan, compared with 49% of independents and 34% of Republicans. Though more than 7 in 10 Democrats approve of Obama’s actions, significantly fewer, but still a majority (57%), say removing McChrystal would have been the best way to handle the matter. Most Republicans would have preferred a lesser punishment for McChrystal, with 56% preferring a reprimand.

June 28, 2010 REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS STILL FIERCELY DIVIDED ON ROLE OF GOVERNMENT Majority of independents say the government is doing too much by Frank Newport and Elizabeth Mendes A USA Today/Gallup poll finds that 81% of Republicans say the government is trying to do too much that should be left to individuals and businesses, while 63% of Democrats say government should do more to solve the country’s problems—underscoring what will certainly be one of the most contentious issues facing voters in this fall’s midterm elections. Independents on average tilt in favor of saying the government is doing too much, making this also the majority view of all Americans.

Bottom Line Americans generally back President Obama’s decision to remove Gen. McChrystal from his position as the U.S. military commander in Afghanistan, even though a significant proportion of those who approve of Obama’s action say a less severe course of action such as a reprimand would have been better. It is telling, though, that Americans who are closely following the story back the president by rather solid margins and show a greater tendency to believe that dismissing McChrystal was the best way to handle the matter. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 25-26, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,044 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The 53% of all Americans who say the government is doing too many things that should be left to others is down slightly from a survey conducted in late August/early September of last year, but is generally on par with Gallup’s historical trend. In the 18year history of this question, there have been only three points when a plurality thought the “government should do more”: in 1992 and 1993, and immediately after the Sept. 11 attacks, in October 2001.

The highest percentage favoring the “government doing too much” option was 60%, recorded in December 1995. Bottom Line The issue of government involvement in social and economic policy will almost certainly arise at the confirmation hearings of Elena Kagan, President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court, which began Monday. The issue will also be of major significance in this fall’s midterm elections, as evidenced by the heated debate already

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underway on the role of the federal government in the nation’s healthcare system. Despite the fact that a majority of Americans say the government is doing too much, recent Gallup surveys show that Americans do favor legislation that would increase government stimulus spending to help create jobs, to regulate major financial institutions, and to regulate energy output from private companies in an effort to reduce global warming. These somewhat conflicting sentiments underscore the complex nature of the relationship between the average American citizen and his or her government. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Obama reiterated that the July 2011 date would mark the beginning of withdrawal but that it would not mark the end of the U.S. military presence there, adding that the U.S. would be assisting the people of Afghanistan for “a long time to come.” Most Democrats, and the majority of independents, favor the timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops beginning in July of next year. Republicans, on the other hand, oppose it by a better than 2-to-1 margin.

More generally, Americans are somewhat divided in their views of Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan. The poll finds 50% saying Obama is doing a “very good” or “good” job, while 44% believe he is doing a “very poor” or “poor” job. Democrats give Obama high marks on Afghanistan, while Republicans mostly say he is doing a poor job.

June 29, 2010 MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVOR OBAMA’S AFGHANISTAN TIMETABLE Opponents generally reject idea of setting any timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops by Jeffrey M. Jones A majority of Americans (58%) favor President Barack Obama’s timetable that calls for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan beginning in July 2011. Most of the 38% of Americans who are opposed reject the idea of setting any timetable rather than setting one with an earlier or later date. These results are based on a June 25-26 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted in the days after the president announced he was relieving Gen. Stanley McChrystal of his command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and replacing him with Gen. David Petraeus. A majority of Americans approve of Obama’s decision to remove McChrystal. Obama said the change in command would not signal a change in U.S. policy in Afghanistan. On Sunday at the G-20 summit,

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Bottom Line Americans generally support the timetable Obama has laid out for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Most of the opposition stems from philosophical disagreements as to whether any timetable should be set as opposed to the specifics of the July 2011 date Obama has set. At the G-20 summit Obama decried “the obsession” with the timetable, saying he was more focused on the mission’s success, and refused to say whether the five-year exit strategy put forth at the summit was a reasonable timeline for getting all troops out of Afghanistan.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 25-26, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,044 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 30, 2010 DEMOCRATIC AFFILIATION STABLE IN SECOND QTR. AFTER RECENT SLIDE Democrats hold three percentage-point edge in party affiliation by Jeffrey M. Jones

hold a three percentage-point advantage in party affiliation. The gap between the two parties had shrunk from 13 points when Obama took office to just 1 point in the first quarter of this year. That one-point gap in the first quarter of 2010 was the smallest Gallup had recorded in five years. The current results are based on an average of four Gallup and USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in the second quarter of 2010, including interviews with more than 4,000 U.S. adults. Gallup’s Daily tracking survey, which also includes a measure of party identification and leaning, shows a similar four-point Democratic advantage (44% to 40%) in the second quarter of 2010 through June 28 interviewing. Republicans’ Recent Rise in Support Remains “Soft” While the total percentage of Republicans, including independents who lean Republican, has increased since the start of 2009 (from 39% to 43%), this increase is exclusively the result of a greater percentage of Republican-leaning independents. Over the past 15 months, the percentage of Americans who initially identify as Republican, the party’s core supporters, has held steady at 27% or 28%.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s losses since early 2009 have occurred about equally among Democratic identifiers (down from 35% to 32%) and Democratic-leaning independents (down from 17% to 14%).

For the first time since President Barack Obama took office, the percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats or leaning Demo cratic held steady in a quarter’s worth of Gallup poll data. Prior to the second quarter of 2010, the percentage aligning themselves with the Democratic Party had declined at least slightly each quarter since early 2009.

The net result is that Democrats still claim a higher, though reduced, proportion of solid supporters or outright identifiers with the party (32%, compared to 28% Republican identifiers). With 46% of Americans identifying either as Democrats or as independents who say they lean to the Democratic Party, and 43% identifying as Republican or leaning Republican, Democrats now

Bottom Line The Democratic Party was riding high when Obama took office. In addition to reclaiming the presidency, the party increased its majori-

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ties in both houses of Congress and enjoyed a double-digit lead in party support among the American public. But over the past 15 months, the Democrats’ advantage in party affiliation has decreased and the parties are now more competitive in this regard, though the decline stopped in the second quarter. At this point, some four months before the 2010 midterm elections, Gallup finds registered voters about equally divided between the two major parties in their vote choice for the candidate in their local district. With neither party holding a significant advantage in voter support, the outcome in total seats won by each party may eventually be decided on the basis of turnout among each party’s supporters, an area in which Republicans usually have an advantage. Survey Methods Results are based on combined telephone interviews from Gallup polls conducted in April, May, and June 2010, with a random sample of 4,112 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

June 30, 2010 ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY LEADS U.S. IN WELLBEING; VETERANS LAG Active duty military personnel are more likely to be thriving than U.S. workers overall by Dan Witters Active duty U.S. military personnel on average enjoy higher wellbeing than American workers overall, as measured by the GallupHealthways Well-Being Index. Employed veterans, however, fare worse than the general workforce. These findings are based on 86,262 interviews with employed Americans, aged 18 to 64, from Aug. 1, 2009-June 15, 2010, and conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Of

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these surveys, 1,451 were completed with active duty military personnel residing in the United States at the time they were interviewed and another 10,092 were completed with veterans (discharged and retired). The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index score is composed of six sub-indexes, which measure how Americans rate their lives, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. Military Personnel Rate Their Lives Better Active duty military personnel are significantly more likely to be thriving than are American workers overall—68.1% vs. 58.2%—and less than half as likely to be suffering—0.9% vs. 2.2%. Veterans, however, are far less likely to be thriving and more likely to struggling and suffering than current military personnel and the general working population. Gallup and Healthways categorize Americans as “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering” based on how they rate their current and future lives and use these groupings to calculate the Life Evaluation Index. Further analysis finds that these relationships hold regardless of age and also become more profound over the age of 45.

Emotional Health Better for Active Duty Military Personnel Active duty military personnel who are younger than 45 report considerably less depression and stress than do employed veterans and U.S. workers in general. Underscoring this, veterans aged 18 to 29 and those aged 30 to 44 have nearly double the rates of clinically diagnosed depression than their counterparts who are still enlisted. These advantages for military personnel, however, are mostly or entirely eliminated for those over the age of 45. Controlling for age is of particular importance when reviewing clinical depression diagnoses, as the incidence of lifetime depression

highlights the need for enhanced involvement in improving life after the military for America’s veterans, both discharged and retired alike. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 86,262 national employed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 1, 2009-June 15, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Of those surveyed, 10,092 were veterans (discharged and retired) of the U.S. military and 1,451 were currently active duty in the U.S. military. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.4, +1.2, and +3.0 percentage points, respectively. Margin of sampling error ranges are higher for individual age groups within each category.

increases with age and would be expected to be lower overall in a disproportionately young population such as the military. Still, after controlling for age, substantial differences with the comparison groups prevail. Bottom Line Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index findings reveal that while American military personnel surpass American workers in wellbeing, veterans lag behind. Once out of the military, even when employed, veterans’ wellbeing and life evaluation fall below that of the overall working population, while clinical depression climbs higher. These findings underscore two points for consideration for U.S. military leadership. The first is that military service may be beneficial for the wellbeing of active military personnel. At the same time, these personnel tend to suffer after leaving the military. While the first point could serve as a strong recruiting tool, the second point

Questions used to discern military involvement include: Have you, or has any member of your household, ever served in the U.S. military? Are you currently on active duty, or not? Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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July 02, 2010 TEA PARTY SUPPORTERS OVERLAP REPUBLICAN BASE Eight out of 10 Tea Party supporters are Republicans

80% of Tea Party supporters say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district, slightly lower than the projected 95% Republican vote among conservative Republicans. This suggests that the potential impact of the Tea Party on Republican chances of winning in congressional and senatorial races this fall—even if supporters turn out in record numbers—may be slightly less than would be expected.

by Frank Newport There is significant overlap between Americans who identify as supporters of the Tea Party movement and those who identify as conservative Republicans. Their similar ideological makeup and views suggest that the Tea Party movement is more a rebranding of core Republicanism than a new or distinct entity on the American political scene. Both Tea Party supporters and conservative Republicans are highly likely to hold unfavorable views of President Barack Obama and Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

Conservative Republicans outnumber moderate/liberal Republicans in the general population by about a 2-to-1 margin; among Tea Party supporters, the ratio is well more than 3 to 1. More generally, almost 8 out of 10 Tea Party supporters are Republicans, compared with 44% of all national adults. These findings are based on three surveys Gallup conducted in March, May, and June of this year. Thirty percent of Americans, on average, identify as Tea Party supporters—a percentage remarkably consistent across the three surveys. The Tea Party and the 2010 Vote One reason for interest in the burgeoning Tea Party movement this year has been its potential impact on the midterm elections in November. Already the Tea Party is viewed as affecting Republican primaries, with its chosen candidates prevailing or poised to do so in several contests, including the withdrawal or defeat of well-funded “establishment” Republican candidates in the Florida and Kentucky Senate races. This potential impact is clear from data showing that Tea Party supporters are more enthusiastic about voting this year than are Americans overall, and more likely to say they are certain to vote. At the same time, Tea Party supporters are no more enthusiastic or certain to vote than the traditional Republican base—conservative Republicans. While Tea Party supporters are not universal in their backing of Republican candidates, they skew heavily in that direction. About

Same Cup of Tea? The Tea Party movement has received considerable news coverage this year, in large part because it appears to represent a new and potentially powerful force on the American political scene. Whether Tea Party supporters are a voting segment that is unique and distinct from the more traditional Republican conservative base, however, appears questionable. There is significant overlap between Tea Party supporters and conservative Republicans, both groups are highly enthusiastic about voting, and both are heavily skewed toward Republican candidates—although the latter somewhat more so than the former. Republican leaders who worry about the Tea Party’s impact on their races may in fact (and more simply) be defined as largely worrying about their party’s core base. Additionally, GOP leaders eager to maximize turnout this fall may do just as well by targeting the more traditional voting category of conservative Republicans as by expending energy and effort to target those who identify with the Tea Party movement. Survey Methods Results are based on combined telephone interviews from USA Today/Gallup polls conducted March 26-28, May 24-25, and June

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11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 3,095 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 1,008 Tea Party supporters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

At least 7 in 10 Americans since 2002 have consistently said they are “extremely” or “very” patriotic; 74% say so this year. This is up slightly since the 1990s.

The increase in the overall percentage of Americans calling themselves “extremely patriotic” is driven largely by seniors, Republicans, and conservatives—all of whom are significantly more likely to say so than they were in 2005. Republicans’ relatively higher identification with the “extremely patriotic” label is particularly intriguing when one considers that Democrats are currently far more likely than Republicans to say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country (41% vs. 7%, respectively). Still, the majority of Americans in each of these subgroups say they are “extremely” or “very” patriotic.

July 02, 2010 ONE IN THREE AMERICANS “EXTREMELY PATRIOTIC” Republicans, conservatives, and seniors most likely to say so by Lymari Morales One in three Americans (32%) now say they are “extremely patriotic,” up from 26% in 2005 and 19% in 1999. As the nation celebrates the Fourth of July, some Americans do so with more fervent patriotism than they have in recent years. Selfexpressed patriotism runs high across most segments of the population. The widespread willingness to describe oneself as patriotic is particularly noteworthy with the U.S. continuing to face serious economic challenges at home and approval challenges abroad. Survey Methods

These findings are from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted June 11-13, 2010, Gallup’s first update of this question since 2005. The overall percentage of Americans describing themselves as “extremely patriotic” is now measurably higher than at any point in this Gallup trend, including in the months after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. The difference between “extremely” and “very” patriotic is left to respondents to interpret.

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Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample

includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 05, 2010 DEBT, GOVERNMENT POWER AMONG TEA PARTY SUPPORTERS’ TOP CONCERNS Eight in 10 say government is doing things that should be left to businesses, individuals by Jeffrey M. Jones Self-described Tea Party supporters differ from those neutral or opposed to the movement on the issues they perceive as threats to the future of the United States, most notably federal government debt and the size and power of the federal government. They are essentially indistinguishable from those who do not support the Tea Party in their perceptions of unemployment and racial discrimination as future threats to the country.

as Tea Party supporters are in many ways indistinguishable from, and largely a subset of, Republican identifiers more generally. As a result, Tea Party supporters’ issue concerns are not decidedly different from those of Republican identifiers. The two groups differ only slightly in their views of federal government debt and the size and power of the federal government among the 10 issues tested.

Tea Party Supporters Adamant About Role of Government Tea Party supporters’ concerns about government power are apparent, as 8 in 10 say the government is doing too much that should be left to individuals and businesses. Those who are neutral toward the movement are far less likely to hold this view, and Tea Party opponents reject it.

Tea Party supporters are much more unified in their views of the government’s role in economic matters than in matters of morality. Just over half of supporters believe the government should promote traditional values. And though the Tea Party’s concerns seem more grounded in economic issues, its supporters are significantly more likely than those neutral or opposed to the movement to want government to promote traditional values.

Tea Party supporters’ heightened concerns about federal debt help make that issue the top perceived threat among all Americans. At the same time, the size and power of the federal government is only a middling concern among the general public. Thirty percent of Americans identify as Tea Party supporters, 28% are opponents, and 36% are neutral to the movement, according to combined data from three USA Today/Gallup polls conducted in March, May, and June 2010. The Tea Party movement has been the focus of media attention during the past year, and has had some success in getting its preferred candidates nominated or elected in the 2009-2010 election cycle. However, as Gallup has pointed out, those who describe themselves

Tea Party supporters and Republicans more generally hold nearly identical views on government power in the economy, and largely similar views on the role of government in promoting traditional values. Bottom Line Americans who say they support the Tea Party movement share a common concern about government and its scope, particularly with

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July 06, 2010 AMERICANS CLOSELY DIVIDED OVER IMMIGRATION REFORM PRIORITY Most Republicans would halt flow; majority of Democrats would address current immigrants by Lydia Saad

regard to deficit spending. Their views do set them apart from those who are neutral or opposed to the Tea Party movement, but hardly distinguish them from supporters of the Republican Party more broadly. Still, the more active elements of the Tea Party movement have succeeded to some degree in pushing the Republican Party more to the right this year by working to nominate candidates more to their liking. The fate of these candidates, such as Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, and Marco Rubio, in the fall elections will go a long way toward determining the future influence of the Tea Party movement, both in the Republican Party and the larger U.S. political system.

As President Barack Obama renews his call for a comprehensive approach to addressing illegal immigration, Americans are about equally divided—50% to 45%—over whether the government’s main focus should be on halting the flow of illegal immigrants coming into the U.S., or on developing a plan to deal with those already here.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 24-25 and June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 2,063 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 697 Tea Party supporters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The latest results come from a June 11-13 USA Today/Gallup poll following several months of public discourse over Arizona’s new immigration law. In the same poll, by 62% to 32%, Americans are more likely to believe illegal immigrants are a burden on taxpayers by virtue of the social services they receive, rather than people who become productive citizens and eventually contribute their fair share of taxes.

Americans’ current attitudes on both questions are similar to June 2006, a month after President George W. Bush delivered an Oval Office address calling on Congress to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill. Currently rank-and-file Republicans and Democrats differ significantly in their opinions about which aspect of immigration reform should be the priority. More than two-thirds of Republicans want the government’s main focus to be on halting the flow of illegal immigrants, while 55% of Democrats want it to be on dealing with illegal immigrants already in the country. Still, this partisan divide is not quite as strong as has been seen over the past year for other issues such as healthcare reform, labor organizing, and oil drilling. At the same time, the plurality, if not majority, of all three political parties believe illegal immigrants cost taxpayers more than they contribute to the tax rolls.

Illegal Immigration a Mid-Ranking Concern Illegal immigration is positioned fairly high as a public concern on two additional Gallup questions included in the latest poll. At 5%, it receives fewer spontaneous mentions from Americans as the nation’s “most important problem“ than the economy, unemployment, Gulf oil disaster, poor leadership, healthcare, and the federal budget deficit. However, it scores higher than the environment, education, crime, and a host of other issues. Similarly, in a separate question, the 64% of Americans rating illegal immigration as an “extremely serious” or “very serious” problem is less than the serious ratings for the federal debt, terrorism, healthcare costs, and unemployment. However, it essentially ties U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq and leads the environment, government power, corporate power, and discrimination against minorities issues.

adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 07, 2010 DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS STILL TIED ON 2010 GENERIC BALLOT Republicans’ voting enthusiasm advantage continues apace by Lydia Saad Republicans maintain their competitive position on the generic congressional ballot, with 46% of U.S. registered voters preferring the Republican candidate in their district and 44% the Democratic candidate. The Republicans have statistically tied or led the Democrats on this measure in every Gallup weekly average since mid-March.

Eight in ten Republicans (79%) compared with half of independents (51%) consider illegal immigration an extremely or very serious threat. Bottom Line Americans are clearly concerned about the illegal immigration problem. To succeed in addressing the issue, however, policy-makers may need to be aware that Americans want to see at least as much emphasis on sealing the border as on addressing the status of current illegal residents. Any bill that is perceived as leaning too far in either direction is bound to produce a political backlash. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014

The latest results are based on Gallup Daily tracking for the week ending July 4, with no interviewing on the Independence Day holiday. Gallup historical trends suggest that a slight Republican lead on the generic ballot among registered voters—or even a statistical tie—would translate into sizable Republican seat gains in Congress on Election Day, given their typical advantage in voter turnout.

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Republicans’ Enthusiasm Lead Persists Overall enthusiasm for voting in the 2010 midterm elections held steady in the latest weekly average, with 30% of registered voters saying they are very enthusiastic, although this is down from the higher enthusiasm levels of late March and April. Republicans continue to hold a significant edge on this potentially important indicator of voter turnout rates. The current 13 percentage-point GOP enthusiasm lead is similar to the average 17-point lead the party has held since March.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 08, 2010 ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE SINKS EVEN AS JOBS PICTURE HOLDS STEADY Fewer say the economy is “getting better” than at any time in the past year by Frank Newport Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell to -34 last week, the lowest weekly average since last July. At the same time, Gallup’s Job Creation Index remains relatively positive. Monthly Preferences Highly Stable Voter preferences for Congress have been highly stable on a monthly basis since Gallup began Daily tracking of the generic ballot in March. The gap between Democrats and Republicans has been either one or two points each month, including June, when an average of 47% preferred the Republican candidate in their district and 45% preferred the Democrat. Each month that Republican parity with the Democrats is maintained reduces the likelihood that the Democrats will move into a substantial lead before November. Prior Gallup analysis has found that the party preferences for Congress seen in the first quarter of a midterm election year generally carry through to Election Day. The only recent example of a major change as late as the summer or fall came in 2002, when Democratic support surged in July and August, but diminished by Election Day; indeed, that year, the Republicans retained their majority status in Congress. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking June 28-July 3, 2010, with a random sample of 1,354 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. 226

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Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is based on responses to two questions, one asking about perceptions of current economic conditions and the other about views of the economy’s direction. The combination of the answers results in an Economic Confidence Index of -39 for July 3-6, the lowest three-day average since April 2009.

Despite the decline in economic confidence over the last several weeks, Americans’ confidence in the economy remains substantially higher than it was during most of 2008 and early 2009 (the Index reached its lowest weekly average of -65 in October 2008).

ing in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Americans take into account a number of factors when asked to assess the current status and direction of the U.S. economy, including what they hear, see, and read in the news. In recent weeks, a good deal of economic news has been negative—in particular, coverage of the substantial drop in the U.S. stock market. Additionally, last week’s government jobs and employment data report was met with generally negative interpretation in the news media. Although downplayed by some economic observers, the overall unemployment rate the government reported last week fell, in line with Gallup’s own employment data. Gallup’s Job Creation Index has remained more positive in recent weeks than at any point since the fall of 2008. These findings underscore the need for care in interpreting measures of consumer confidence in the context of the real-world economy. The availability of jobs is a key component of the nation’s economy. Even while the average American has become more negative when asked to assess the state of the economy, U.S. workers remain more likely to report that their employers are hiring rather than firing. Along these lines, it should be noted that Gallup’s consumer spending measure is generally holding its own and does not reflect any of the sharp deterioration some might expect to accompany a drop in economic confidence. This further bolsters the view that consumer confidence has its limitations as an indicator of what is happening or will happen in the actual economy. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking, including the most recent weekly sample, June 28-July 4, 2010, with a random sample of 3,003 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population liv-

July 08, 2010 BLACKS’ OPTIMISM ABOUT THEIR STANDARDS OF LIVING TOPS WHITES’ Nearly two-thirds of blacks say their living standards are improving by Jeffrey M. Jones Blacks’ ratings on Gallup’s Standard of Living Index continue to exceed those for whites, a pattern that has persisted since early 2009.

Gallup tracks its Standard of Living Index daily, based on how respondents rate their satisfaction with their standards of living and their assessments of whether they are getting better or getting worse. These Index scores—reported as monthly averages here—are usually positive because Americans tend to rate their standards of living more positively than negatively on both counts. Both blacks’ and whites’ evaluations of their standards of living declined during the financial crisis in 2008, and the Index score for blacks dipped into negative territory in October 2008. Whites’ scores remained higher than blacks’ throughout 2008. But blacks’ evaluations of their standards of living recovered more rapidly than whites’, and by February 2009, the score for blacks overtook that for whites and has remained higher ever since. The improvement in blacks’ ratings of their standards of living is evident in both items that make up Gallup’s Index. Satisfaction With Standards of Living An average of 70% of blacks this year say they are satisfied with their standards of living. That compares with an average of 64% in 2009 and the low point of 52% satisfaction in November 2008. Meanwhile, whites’ satisfaction with their standards of living has remained relatively flat, even during the height of the financial crisis. Whites continue to be more likely than blacks to say they are satisfied with their standards of living, though the gap has shrunk, from 20 percentage points in late 2008 to 7 points today.

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The latter explanation seems more likely, given that blacks began to be more optimistic around the same time that Barack Obama was inaugurated as president, but before his economic policies could have had a tangible impact on Americans’ lives. Blacks voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 and continue to support him at high levels today even as his overall approval rating has declined. Survey Methods

Standards of Living Getting Better or Worse More than 60% of blacks each month in 2010 say their standards of living are getting better. Those assessments are improved from 2009, and represent a dramatic turnaround from the height of the financial crisis, when 37% of blacks said their standards of living were improving (at that time, 49% of blacks said theirs were getting worse). The percentage of whites who say their standards of living are getting better has improved much less than that of blacks, at 43% today compared with 32% in October 2008. Whites have been consistently less likely than blacks to say their standards of living are getting better since Gallup tracking began in January 2008.

Blacks’ higher average Standard of Living Index score, then, is the result of greater optimism among blacks than among whites that their standards of living are improving, a gap that has expanded, coupled with the narrowing of the white-black gap in the percentage satisfied with their living standards. The pattern in which whites are more likely than blacks to express satisfaction with their standards of living, but blacks are more likely than whites to say their living standards are getting better, may reflect U.S. economic realities. Whites as a group have higher average standards of living than blacks, so while more whites are probably now at a place of relative financial security, it is not one from which they see much room for improvement. On the other hand, blacks may see more room for improvement because they are in general a group with more room to move upward. Gallup has also found Hispanics to be quite optimistic about improvements in their standards of living. Bottom Line Blacks have become more optimistic about their standards of living since the financial crisis of 2008. It is not clear whether this is grounded in real economic gains for blacks over this time, or whether it is merely the result of greater optimism among blacks in general about the economic climate for the United States and their own families.

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Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking June 1-30, 2010, with a random sample of 30,189 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 1,914 blacks, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 09, 2010 AMERICANS OPPOSE FEDERAL SUIT AGAINST ARIZ. IMMIGRATION LAW Republicans are highly opposed; a majority of Democrats are in favor by Frank Newport Americans’ initial reactions to the U.S. Justice Department lawsuit against Arizona’s new illegal immigration law are more negative than positive, by a 50% to 33% margin. The Justice Department lawsuit asks for a preliminary injunction to prevent the Arizona law from taking effect, arguing that Arizona’s law “pre-empts” the federal government’s responsibility to deal with immigration issues. President Obama publicly opposes the Arizona legislation, and the lawsuit thus becomes the latest part of a debate that may have ramifications for this fall’s midterm elections.

dates running on an anti-administration platform, while Democrats may hope that the lawsuit solidifies support among Hispanic voters in key congressional districts and states with close Senate and gubernatorial races. Survey Methods

Emotions run high on both sides of the issue. The substantial majority of those in favor and those opposed to the lawsuit say they feel strongly about their position. The margin of opposition to the lawsuit is highest among those who are following news about the law most closely.

A Republican-controlled Arizona House and Senate passed the law, a Republican governor signed it, and both of the state’s Republican U.S. senators (John McCain and Jon Kyl) support it. Official opposition has been centered primarily among Democrats (including President Obama and current Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, who as governor of Arizona vetoed similar bills passed by the state legislature), and a Democratic administration filed the lawsuit against the Arizona law. The general public’s reaction to the lawsuit reflects this partisan divergence. Almost 8 out of 10 Republicans are opposed, while 56% of Democrats are in favor. Independents tilt toward opposition.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking July 7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

July 12, 2010 AMERICANS UNSURE ABOUT “PROGRESSIVE” POLITICAL LABEL More than twice as many say label does not describe them as say it does by Lydia Saad Bottom Line The fact that Americans are more likely to oppose than favor the federal government’s lawsuit against Arizona’s controversial immigration law is in line with previous polling showing that Americans generally favor the Arizona bill. This means the Obama administration is sailing against the tide of public opinion in its efforts to block the law, although members of Obama’s own party certainly support the administration. The political implications of the lawsuit are difficult to predict with precision at this juncture. Republican leaders will hope that reaction against the lawsuit generates more support for GOP candi-

Gallup polling reveals widespread public uncertainty about the “progressive” political label—a label recently embraced by no less than Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan. While Kagan described her political views as “generally progressive” during her Senate confirmation hearings, fewer than half of Americans can say whether “progressive” does (12%) or does not (31%) describe their own views. The majority (54%) are unsure. This measure of the progressive label was included in a June 1113 USA Today/Gallup poll, which also assessed Americans’ political ideology using Gallup’s standard liberal-moderate-conservative scale. Large segments of all three ideological groups are unsure what “progressive” means, though liberals are more likely to embrace than

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using it either as a substitute for “liberal” or as a nuanced alternative to it. Given the high degree of public uncertainty about what the term means—as well as the lack of opposition to it from the political center—that could be a successful strategy, at least if the goal is to avoid being pigeonholed. Survey Methods

reject the label (26% vs. 17%), while conservatives are more likely to reject than embrace it (48% vs. 7%). Democrats are evenly divided on whether the term applies to their views, while Republicans overwhelmingly reject it. Today’s findings are consistent with those from a Gallup Panel poll conducted four years ago in which Americans rated their familiarity with “progressive” and five other political terms. At that time, 22% said they were very familiar with the progressive label and another 37% were somewhat familiar, while 40% were not too or not at all familiar—much higher than the levels not familiar with “conservative” (8%) and “liberal” (10%). Progressives Have a Diverse Political Profile Close to half of Americans (45%) who identify with the progressive label separately describe their political views as either very liberal or liberal. At the same time, a third of progressives call themselves moderate and nearly a quarter, conservative—indicating that Americans’ definitions of the term may vary widely or perhaps that Americans lack clarity about its current meaning in U.S. politics. Notably, the 22% of progressives calling themselves “very liberal” is much higher than the 7% of all Americans who do so.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 11-13, 2010, with a random sample of 1,014 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 12, 2010 UPPER-INCOME AMERICANS SEE LIVING STANDARDS IMPROVING Optimism among all income groups is highest since March 2008 by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

Bottom Line The progressive label seems to be gaining popularity in American politics, with numerous high-profile political players and groups 230

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Despite the generally disappointing economic data of the past month, 55% of upper-income Americans in June said their standards of living were “getting better”— the highest since March 2008. Similarly, 48% of lower- and middle-income Americans said their standards of living were getting better, matching the 2010 high of the past two months, and the highest since March 2008. Over the past 15 months, upper-income Americans have become comparatively more likely than other Americans to say their standards of living are getting better, restoring this group to its customary, more optimistic position in comparison with lower- and middle-income Americans. For all income groups, optimism about living standards has rebounded from the more depressed assessments seen during late 2008 and early 2009 as the financial crisis worsened. At one point, upper-income Americans’ optimism declined to the point that it matched the optimism of their lower- and middle-income counterparts.

Optimism About Living Standards Up Across Ages and Regions More Americans, regardless of age, in June said their standards of living were “getting better” than did so in June 2008 and June 2009. Optimism about future living standards is highest among younger Americans and tends to decrease among older age groups.

Optimism about living standards also shows an increase across regions in June compared with the past two years, but with minimal differences by region.

Standard-of-living optimism in June was up across races, compared with June 2008 and June 2009. A higher percentage of blacks than whites since the inauguration of President Obama say their standards of living are getting better. Americans’ Personal Balance Sheets Are Healing In Gallup’s new book “Wellbeing: The Five Essential Elements,” the authors state, “People with thriving Financial Wellbeing are satisfied with their overall standard of living. They manage their personal finances well to create financial security. This eliminates day-to-day stress caused by debt and helps build financial reserves.” While always good financial advice, these ideas are particularly appropriate for today’s economic environment. Uncertainty about jobs, investments, and government policies—on top of the recession and financial crisis of the past two years—have consumers pulling back on their spending and reducing their use of credit. Businesses and lenders are doing likewise.

This suggests that the U.S. economic recovery may be much slower than many had hoped. A sharp drop in economic activity, such as the one the U.S. experienced during 2008-2009, is usually followed by a sharp rebound. A slow recovery is likely to prove a big disappointment to everyone on Wall Street as well as on Main Street and—what is politically most important—generate little or no job growth. On the other hand, Gallup’s standard-of-living measure provides insight into one of the more positive aspects of consumer deleveraging: consumer credit fell by more than $9 billion in May. As consumers build their personal balance sheets—increasing their savings and decreasing their debt—they increase their financial security and build their financial reserves. As they increase their standards of living, they benefit from doing so, on a firmer, more sustainable basis. And as they do so, they improve their Financial Wellbeing and their potential to thrive. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking June 1-30, 2010, with a random sample of 30,189 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 4,994 upper-income Americans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 16,342 lower- and middle-income Americans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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July 13, 2010 AMERICANS BEHIND PETRAEUS; SEE TOUGH JOB IN AFGHANISTAN Majority see the conflict going badly for the U.S.

At the same time, Americans largely support the war effort. Less than a majority of Americans—38%—say it was a mistake for the U.S. to have sent military forces to Afghanistan in the first place; 58% disagree.

by Frank Newport As Gen. David Petraeus takes charge of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the majority of Americans like him personally while at the same time viewing the conflict there as going badly for the U.S.

President Obama appointed Petraeus as commander of U.S. and International Security Assistance forces in Afghanistan on June 23, shortly after Gen. Stanley McChrystal was removed from the same position. The new Gallup data, from a poll conducted July 8-11, underscore Americans’ positive opinions of the new commander, even as they recognize the challenge he faces in his new position. Petraeus spent the last two years as commander of the U.S. Central Command. His overall name recognition (the percentage of Americans who know enough about him to have an opinion) is down from where it was in 2007, when he was commander in Iraq, overseeing the highly visible and controversial “surge” in American troops. Still, Petraeus’ image is now more positive on a relative basis among those who have an opinion of him.

This “mistake” percentage is largely unchanged from several polls conducted in the summer and fall of 2009. In January 2002, shortly after troops were initially sent to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, a much smaller 6% of Americans said U.S. involvement there was a mistake. Bottom Line Gallup finds both good news and bad news for Gen. Petraeus in this July 8-11 poll. He takes his new job as commander of U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan with a remarkably positive image among Americans who know who he is. At the same time, Petraeus now faces the additional challenge of commanding a mission that the majority of Americans say is going badly. Americans’ views of the situation in Iraq improved during and after Petraeus’ tenure as commander in that country. The degree to which Petraeus will be able to shift Americans’ perceptions of the war in Afghanistan in similar fashion will have important consequences in many arenas, including the politics of the war in the U.S. Survey Methods

Things Still Going Badly in Afghanistan The majority of Americans believe that things are going badly for the U.S. in Afghanistan, as has been the case in most Gallup polls conducted over the past four years.

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Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 492 national adults in Form B, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and

older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 14, 2010 VP FAVORABLE RATINGS: GORE DOWN; CHENEY, BIDEN FLAT Americans more negative than positive toward Gore, Cheney

Americans’ views of Cheney, but similar to Gallup’s last measurement in May 2009.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ current views of former Vice President Al Gore have become significantly more negative compared with three years ago, and are among the worst for him in more than a decade.

Survey Methods

The July 8-11 Gallup poll, finding 44% of Americans viewing Gore favorably and 49% unfavorably, was conducted after the announcement that he and his wife were separating, and amid a police investigation into allegations that he committed sexual assault in 2006. Gallup last measured Gore’s image in October 2007, after he was named winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, when 58% of Americans had a favorable view of him. All three party groups are less favorable toward Gore now compared with 2007, though his rating has declined more among Republicans (from 32% to 16%) and independents (from 57% to 43%) than among Democrats (from 79% to 72%). The only other time Americans were significantly more negative than positive toward Gore was in early December 2000, as he was disputing the election result in Florida that would make him or George W. Bush president, though he also had sub-50% favorable ratings from 2002-2006. Gore’s vice presidential successors are not viewed very positively, either. Current Vice President Joe Biden’s 43% favorable and 41% unfavorable ratings are the best on a relative basis, and Dick Cheney’s 36% favorable/52% unfavorable score is the worst. Biden’s ratings are essentially the same as they were last fall, but not as positive as they were during 2008 and most of 2009, spanning the presidential election campaign and the beginning of the Obama administration. Though Cheney is viewed the least positively of the three most recent vice presidents, his current favorable ratings are improved from 30% in July 2007 (while he was still in office) and March 2009 (shortly after serving out his term), which were the low points in

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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July 14, 2010 ECONOMY DOMINATES AS NATION’S MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM Fewer Americans mention natural disaster response and relief by Frank Newport Americans name the economy in general and the jobs situation specifically as the top problems facing the country today. Top-ofmind mentions of “natural disaster response and relief” efforts are down significantly after spiking in June.

• Republicans are much more likely than independents or Democrats to mention dissatisfaction with government as the top problem. • Both Republicans and independents are more likely to mention immigration than are Democrats. Bottom Line

Americans’ perceptions that the economy or jobs are the nation’s top problem have been a constant since early 2008. At this point, 64% of Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the top problem, compared with 22% as recently as October 2007. While the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico certainly remains in the news, the percentage of Americans mentioning natural disaster relief as the nation’s top problem settled to 7% this month, after jumping to 18% in June from 1% in May. Americans’ reduced likelihood to see the spill as the top problem could reflect the reality that the spill is no longer “new” news or perhaps that Americans are becoming more confident that the spill will be fixed. Other significant findings this month: • The only non-economic issue that 10% or more of Americans mention is dissatisfaction with government and politicians (11%). • Mentions of fuel and oil prices (5%) as the nation’s top problem are the highest since October 2008. • The percentage of Americans mentioning healthcare is down to 7%, continuing a recent downtick in top-of-mind concerns about healthcare, and the lowest reading since April 2009. During the congressional battle over healthcare reform legislation in February, 23% of Americans named healthcare as the top problem. • Economic issues top the list of most important problems across all political groups. Republicans and independents are most likely to mention the economy in general, while Democrats tilt toward mentioning jobs.

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Americans’ views of the most important problem facing the country continue to reflect significant worries about the economy. This confirms Gallup’s ongoing economic confidence measures, which in recent weeks have become more negative. Although the precise percentage of Americans mentioning economic concerns varies from month to month, these issues have dominated the public’s consciousness for well over two years. This fact should serve as a sharp reminder to politicians and challengers involved in House and Senate races this fall; failure to address economic issues will be at the candidate’s own peril. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S.

telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 14, 2010 MILITARY WELLBEING REMAINS HIGH AMONG PREVIOUSLY DEPLOYED Wellbeing slips slightly, however, among deployed under the age of 30 by Dan Witters Active duty military personnel who have ever been deployed to a foreign war have strikingly similar wellbeing levels as active duty personnel who have never been deployed. In both cases, these levels exceed the wellbeing scores found among U.S. workers in general.

Active duty military personnel who have been deployed are also as likely to rate their lives well enough to be considered “thriving” as those who have not been deployed. Both groups are significantly more likely to be thriving than are American workers overall. These findings are based on 86,262 interviews with employed Americans aged 18 to 64, from Aug. 1, 2009-June 15, 2010, which were conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Of these completed surveys, 1,451 were with active duty military personnel between the ages of 18-64 who were residing in the United States at the time they were interviewed, 1,004 of which that had previously been deployed to a foreign war. (Actual combat experience is not determined.) Young military personnel who have been deployed, however, suffer from a slight drop in wellbeing scores compared with their counterparts who have never been deployed, but they still maintain higher wellbeing scores than U.S. workers in general. Those deployed older than 30, who ordinarily would experience a decline in life evaluation as a result of advancing age, instead demonstrate resilience on this metric not found among U.S. workers in general and match their younger counterparts’ scores.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 86,262 national employed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 1 2009-June 15, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Of those surveyed, 1,451 are currently active duty in the U.S. military, including 1,004 who have been deployed to a foreign war and 428 who have never been deployed. (The deployment status of the remainder is unknown.) For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.4, +3.0, +3.7, and +5.6 percentage points, respectively. Error ranges will climb higher for individual age groups within each category.

Questions used to discern military involvement and deployment to foreign wars include: “Have you, or has any member of your household, ever served in the U.S. military?” “Are you currently on active duty, or not?” “Which war or wars, if any, have you been deployed to?” Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Bottom Line Despite the challenges of serving abroad in a foreign war, American military personnel surpass American workers in overall wellbeing levels regardless of deployment status. While life evaluation clearly holds up regardless of age, the drop in overall wellbeing among those aged 18 to 29 indicates that foreign war deployment is having an impact on wellbeing overall.

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July 15, 2010 ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE HEADING FURTHER DOWN IN JULY Americans’ outlook for the economy has grown progressively worse since April by Lydia Saad Gallup Daily tracking finds Americans’ confidence in the economy significantly lower so far in July than in June. And confidence in June was, in turn, down from May. The Gallup Economic Confidence Index for July 1-13, at -35, is lower than any monthly average in more than a year.

its largest one-month drop since October 2008, when the country was reeling from the emergent Wall Street financial crisis. Given the high correspondence between Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index and the consumer confidence polls put out by the Conference Board and Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan— both of which are skewed toward interviews conducted in the first half of the month—it is quite likely that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary report due this Friday, and the Conference Board’s preliminary report to be released later this month, will show similar declines. Gallup first reported on this month’s depressed economic confidence last week, and the subdued figures from the first week of July have persisted through July 13 interviewing. At the same time, despite the souring consumer mindset, American workers continue to report more positive than negative news about hiring at their places of employment. Also, while not showing much of an increase, consumers’ self-reported spending is at least flat compared with 2009. Economic Pessimism Is Mounting The decline in confidence seen in recent months is owing primarily to mounting public skepticism with the economy’s direction. Thus far in July, 30% of Americans, on average, have said the economy is getting better and 65% have said it is getting worse, for a net -35 economic outlook score. This is down sharply from -13 in April. By contrast, the net percentage of Americans calling current economic conditions “excellent” or “good” rather than “poor” is averaging -36 so far this month. This is only slightly below the -30 recorded in April and is comparable to the level seen for much of 2009 and early 2010. According to the nightly results of Gallup Daily tracking, the decline in economic confidence evident in July actually began in late June, immediately following the sharp drop in the U.S. stock market that occurred on June 29. At that point, Gallup’s overall Economic Confidence Index dropped to -35, having been above -30 for most of the month. Then in early July, the government’s June employment report was widely reported as representing more bad economic news, given the lack of new jobs created. Although the stock market has since rebounded, economic confidence has not. Bottom Line Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index—measured daily since January 2008 and monthly since October 2000—is on its way to registering

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Survey Methods The most recent results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking July 1-13, 2010, with a random sample of 5,901 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 15, 2010 AMERICANS FAVOR CONFIRMING KAGAN TO HIGH COURT, 44% TO 34% Would be first recent nominee to win approval with less than majority public support by Jeffrey M. Jones More Americans want the Senate to vote for rather than against Elena Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court, but the percentage in favor is less than a majority. Support for Kagan’s confirmation remains essentially the same as it was before her June confirmation hearings.

Typically, support for nominees does not change much after their hearings. Instead, Gallup usually finds increases in the percentage of Americans opposed and decreases in the percentage with no opinion. The percentage without an opinion on the Kagan nomination was the same before and after her hearings, which may indicate these were not widely followed by the average American. The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote on Kagan’s nomination next week, with the full Senate voting later this summer. Kagan is expected to be confirmed, given the Senate’s large Democratic majority. Among the general public, a majority of self-identified Democrats, 68%, favor Kagan’s confirmation, compared with 43% of independents and 21% of Republicans. A majority of Republicans, 60%, are opposed. If confirmed, Kagan would be the first successful nominee in recent years whose nomination was backed by less than a majority of Americans in the final poll before the Senate confirmation vote (or, in the case of Harriet Miers, before her nomination was withdrawn).

In addition to Miers, Robert Bork is the other recent nominee whose support was less than 50%; the Senate voted against his nomination. Though Kagan’s support, like that of Bork and Miers, is below 50%, Americans were more divided in their views of Bork and Miers. Also, Samuel Alito’s support dipped to 49% after his nomination, but recovered to 54% just before his Senate confirmation vote.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 16, 2010 PALIN’S 76% FAVORABLE AMONG REPUBLICANS TOPS OTHERS IN GOP Former Alaska governor’s image more mixed among all Americans by Frank Newport Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is the best known and most positively rated of five possible contenders for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Her 76% favorable rating among Republicans is higher than those for Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Bobby Jindal.

Huckabee and Gingrich have similar 64% to 65% favorable ratings among Republicans, Romney has a lower 54% rating, and Jindal, less well known even to Republicans, has the lowest positive rating of the five. None of these politicians has officially announced a bid for the 2012 Republican nomination, although Gingrich has recently indi-

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cated that he is thinking seriously about it. Still, the other four have maintained visible public profiles: Palin, Huckabee, and Romney, through media appearances and endorsing 2010 GOP candidates for Congress; and Jindal, in managing his state’s response to the Gulf oil spill. All but Jindal have political action committees that have been actively raising money in recent months. At this point, Palin, Romney, and Gingrich have similar unfavorable ratings among Republicans, while Huckabee’s and Jindal’s are slightly lower.

One consideration in any party’s choice of a candidate is how well he or she would do in the general election. At the moment, three of these Republicans—Jindal, Huckabee, and Romney—have net positive images among all Americans. Palin and Gingrich are saddled with more mixed reactions from the public. As history shows, however, images can change. Romney, for example, had a net negative national image at some points in 2007 as he campaigned for the GOP nomination, significantly different from his more positive image today.

Among All Americans, a Slightly Different Picture Palin is the best known of the five to all Americans, but with a decidedly mixed image: 44% rate her favorably and 47% unfavorably. Her image is similar to that of former Speaker Gingrich, who has lower name recognition, but similar closely divided favorable and unfavorable ratings. The other three Republicans are not as well known, but are viewed more positively than negatively.

Palin was catapulted into national prominence as the Republican vice presidential nominee in 2008, and has been highly visible since— with her visibility fueled by a best-selling memoir, continuing appearances on television, and speculation about her political future. Her image was generally more positive than negative during most of the 2008 campaign, but has tilted more negative last year and this year. Gingrich is less well known to the average American now than he was in the 1990s, when at some points his name identification reached about 90%. Today, 74% of Americans have an opinion of him. Those opinions—although mixed—are relatively more positive than the generally negative ratings he received throughout the 1990s and, in particular, in 2007, when he was considered a possible contender for the Republican Party’s 2008 presidential nomination. Romney’s current image is somewhat more positive than negative, but ranks among his most positive since 2007. Huckabee’s image is also more positive than negative. Bottom Line Potential candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination are crisscrossing the nation, making speeches, appearing on television, raising money for their PACs, and in general doing everything short of formally announcing their candidacies as they test the 2012 waters. Palin has the strongest name identification and positives among Republicans at this juncture. Only 4% say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion, and, by more than 3-to-1, those opinions are positive rather than negative. At the same time, the other four potential candidates measured also have positive images among Republicans, even if their name recognition is lower. Huckabee and Jindal have the least baggage among Republicans, with lower unfavorables than the other three, but the differences in these negatives are relatively small.

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Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 16, 2010 ONE IN SIX AMERICAN ADULTS REMAIN UNINSURED More Americans covered by Medicare in April, May, and June compared with past months by Elizabeth Mendes Approximately one in six American adults were without health insurance in June, on par with the same month one year ago, but up significantly from June 2008, according to data from the GallupHealthways Well-Being Index. The current 2010 average number of uninsured for January-June is 16.3%, similar to the 2009 average, but significantly higher than in 2008. So far in 2010, the percentage of Americans with health insurance from an employer or union is slightly lower than in 2009, and both years’ figures are down significantly from 2008. At the same time, slightly more Americans are relying on government coverage, including Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits.

July implementation of transitional high-risk insurance pools, come to fruition. Survey Methods

This small, yet measureable increase in the average percentage of Americans with government health insurance in 2010 compared with previous years is driven primarily by increases in April, May, and June.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey June 1-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 30,189 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 19, 2010 OBAMA’S HIGHEST HALF-YEAR APPROVAL RATINGS IN D.C., HAWAII Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and West Virginia residents were least likely to approve The consistent increases in government health insurance found in recent months are mainly the result of more Americans reporting that they have Medicare coverage. The increases also coincide with the April 1 roll out of additional federal funding to states to expand their Medicaid programs. However, a direct connection between the increases and the government program cannot be determined, and Gallup does not find a significant increase in Medicaid coverage during those three months. As part of the healthcare overhaul passed earlier this year, the government is requiring all states to expand their Medicaid programs to cover most nonelderly Americans with incomes below 133% of the federal poverty level by 2014. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this change in the government health program for lowincome Americans will result in an increase in coverage for an additional 15 million people, including children. Gallup will continue to monitor Americans’ insurance coverage and type to measure the law’s impact on Americans as additional provisions, including the

by Jeffrey M. Jones During the first half of 2010, residents of Hawaii and the District of Columbia were most likely to approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. His lowest approval ratings came from Wyoming residents. All told, there is a 56 percentage-point gap between Obama’s highest and lowest state ratings. In general, Obama’s greatest support is concentrated in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, including his current home (District of Columbia), but his past homes (Illinois and Hawaii) also rank among the top 10. Many of his lower approval ratings come from Mountain West and Southern states. New Hampshire stands apart from its Northeastern neighbors in giving Obama one of his lowest state job approval ratings. These results are based on aggregated data from January-June 2010 Gallup Daily tracking, and includes interviews with more than 90,000 adults nationwide, including all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Each state’s data are weighted to ensure they

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are representative of the adult population for that state, in terms of demographic characteristics. Obama averaged 49% job approval on a nationwide basis in the first half of the year. He received at least 50% approval in 15 states and the District of Columbia, including four states with 60% or more approval. In nine states, his average approval rating was 40% or below.

margins of error are as high as ±9 percentage points in the District of Columbia and ±8 points in Wyoming, Hawaii, and North Dakota. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150-cell phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 20, 2010 SIX IN 10 WORKERS HOLD NO HOPE OF RECEIVING SOCIAL SECURITY Americans aged 18 to 34 are least likely to believe they will ever see benefits by Frank Newport

Obama’s job approval has trended down since he took office— his 49% nationwide approval average in the first half of 2010 compares with a 57% average for all of 2009. So far in 2010, his average approval ratings are down from the full 2009 averages in all states except Delaware, where the rating is similar (61% in 2009 and 62% thus far in 2010). In general, the highest- and lowest-approving states for Obama in the first half of 2010 are similar to those for all of 2009. In 2009, his highest approval ratings were in the District of Columbia, Hawaii, and Maryland, and his lowest in Wyoming, Idaho, West Virginia, and Alaska.

Six in 10 Americans who have not yet retired believe they will get no Social Security benefits when they retire, more pessimistic than at any time since Gallup began asking this question in 1989. Similarly, retired Americans are now significantly more likely than they were five years ago to believe their existing Social Security benefits will eventually be cut.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 90,941 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of sampling error for individual states are higher. Most states have a margin of error of ±3 percentage points or less, though

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Social Security issues have been a relatively low priority this year as the Obama administration and Congress have focused on healthcare, financial reform, energy legislation, jobs, and, in recent months, the Gulf oil spill. Still, with the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Social Security system approaching on Aug. 14, policymakers are likely to refocus soon on the future of the program, increasingly important as the leading edge of the huge baby boom generation begins to reach retirement age.

Non-retirees’ confidence in the Social Security system has been relatively low over the last 21 years; 49% said they would receive benefits when Gallup first used the current question wording in 1989, ticking up to a high of 52% in March 2001. The 36% who in the current July 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll say they expect to receive benefits marks a significant downturn in the last five years.

Gallup research earlier this year found that non-retirees have become slightly more likely since 2007 to project Social Security as a major income source in their retirement, concomitant with a drop in projected reliance on pensions, 401(k) plans, and other investments. Americans thus appear to be in a bind, perceiving an increased need for Social Security while at the same being less sure it will be there when they need it. Americans aged 18 to 34 are least likely to believe they will receive Social Security benefits when they retire. By contrast, a substantial majority of non-retired Americans 55 and older are confident they will receive benefits, perhaps because much of the discussion about changing Social Security has suggested that older Americans would be exempted from changes in the program.

Gallup’s update on retirees’ actual sources of income earlier this year underscored the potential impact of any cut in benefits; 54% of retirees said Social Security was a major source of income, more than any other source tested. A quarter of Americans believe the Social Security system is in a state of crisis, the highest in Gallup’s 12-year history of asking this question. Most Americans who do not think Social Security is in a state of crisis believe it has major problems.

Americans 65 and older, most of whom are retired and presumably receiving Social Security benefits, are the least likely to say the system is in a state of crisis. Bottom Line Americans who are not yet retired have become increasingly pessimistic about receiving Social Security benefits when they retire. This comes even as Gallup research shows Americans are more likely to project that Social Security will be a major income source in their retirement. Younger Americans are most pessimistic, which could suggest somewhat paradoxically that if policymakers reduce Social Security benefits in the long run, Americans will not be as angry as might be thought, given their low expectations. Social Security is presumably more politically potent among currently retired Americans, the majority of whom depend on it as a major income source. Still, more than half of these retirees expect to see a cut in benefits; whether that could actually become reality from a political viewpoint remains to be seen. Survey Methods

Gallup has asked retired Americans only twice in recent years if they expect an eventual cut in benefits. The pessimism seen in 2010 marks a flip in attitudes from 2005, when the majority of retirees thought the system would continue without such cuts.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 675 non-retirees, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 345 retirees, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and

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850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 20, 2010 OBAMA AVERAGES 47.3% APPROVAL IN SIXTH QUARTER New low for Obama ranks in bottom half of presidential sixth quarters historically by Jeffrey M. Jones President Obama averaged 47.3% job approval during his sixth quarter in office, spanning April 20-July 19—his lowest quarterly average to date. Americans’ approval of Obama has declined at least slightly in each quarter of his presidency. The latest quarterly results are based on interviews with more than 45,000 U.S. adults as part of Gallup Daily tracking. During this period, Obama saw a high of 52% approval in his three-day rolling average in mid-May, and several times saw a new low of 44%, including in mid-July. His sixth quarter in office was a period of continuing economic difficulty in the United States and coincided with the beginning of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

This was particularly true for Reagan and Clinton, whereas the loss of 11 Democratic seats in the 1978 midterm elections under Carter was not extraordinarily high. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking April 20-July 19, 2010, with a random sample of 45,148 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 21, 2010 ENERGY, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT STATES PROVIDE BEST JOB MARKETS The finance states of the Northeast and housing states of the West have the worst job markets by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist More than half of the 10 best job markets in 2010 are energy- and commodity-producing states, indicating how valuable these natural resource-based industries are to the U.S. economy at this time.

Obama’s Sixth Quarter in Historical Perspective The average presidential job approval rating across all presidents in Gallup’s trends since Franklin Roosevelt is 54%, about seven points above Obama’s sixth quarter average. Others with sixth quarter averages below the historical approval norm are Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Dwight Eisenhower, John Kennedy, Richard Nixon, and both George Bushes had sixth quarter ratings above the norm. Elected presidents with sub-50% approval ratings in their sixth quarters in office—Carter, Reagan, and Clinton—tended to see more significant midterm congressional seat losses than other presidents. 242

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Gallup’s Job Creation Index shows that the energy-producing states of North Dakota, Louisiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas are in the top 10 state job markets for the first half of 2010, as they were in 2008 and 2009. They are joined by Alaska, another energy state; the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia, all of which benefit from the presence of federal government hiring; several farm states—Arkansas, Iowa, and South Dakota—that benefit from ethanol and a strong commodities market; and Pennsylvania—possibly reflecting the steady improvement in manufacturing. Despite an overall improvement in job market conditions, 5 states in the bottom 10 during the first half of 2010 were also on the list in 2008 and 2009: Nevada, Connecticut, Rhode Island, California, and Michigan. Additional financial-crisis states in the Northeast, including New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire, are some of the worst job markets. Other Western states in the bottom 10 include Idaho and Wyoming. Although Michigan’s job market has improved substantially from 2009, it remains in the 2010 bottom 10. These results are based on aggregated data from nearly 100,000 interviews with employed adults during the first half of 2010, conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking. Gallup asks those who are employed whether their companies are hiring workers and expanding the size of their labor forces, not changing the size of their workforces, or laying off workers and reducing their workforces. The figures reported here represent the net difference between the percentage reporting an expansion and the percentage reporting a reduction in their workforces.

Job Market Outlook State job market conditions for the first half of 2010 are similar to those of the recession years of 2008 and 2009: energy and commodity states, as well as those dominated by the federal government, continue to see their job markets do comparatively well, while job market conditions in housing-crash and financial industry states continue to fare comparatively poorly. The relative improvement in the U.S. manufacturing sector is not fully reflected in these six-month measurements. However, Pennsylvania’s entry into the top 10 list and Michigan’s near-exit from the bottom 10 may illustrate the manufacturing recovery. The key factors that drive comparative job market conditions across the nation may be changing. For example, although China continues to enjoy robust economic growth, that growth seems to be slowing somewhat. In turn, the demand for energy and commodities could moderate. At the same time, the oil spill in the Gulf and U.S. efforts to limit carbon emissions could also have a negative effect on the traditional energy sector. As a result, the energyproducing states may not continue to dominate the top 10 job markets by 2011. Similarly, the expected economic slowdown in Europe and China could lead to a renewed slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It won’t take much in many long-depressed areas to send those areas back to the bottom 10. And the continuing housing difficulties suggest job market conditions in the West may keep several states in this region at the bottom of the list. Still, Gallup’s Job Creation Index results suggest that job market conditions improved during the first half of 2010, and are now better than they were in 2009—and not just in the federal government’s District of Columbia hiring area. More companies are hiring

and fewer are letting people go right now, although overall new job growth remains relatively anemic. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 98,755 employed adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

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For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margins of sampling error for the individual states range from ±1 percentage point for large states such as California to ±8 percentage points for the District of Columbia. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

since the 2008 presidential election campaign (and before Hillary Clinton assumed the role of secretary of state), rising to 61% from 52% in August 2008.

Since 2008, Clinton’s favorable rating is up 10 percentage points among Democrats (from 79% to 89%), 9 points among independents (from 51% to 60%), and 12 points among Republicans (from 18% to 30%). At the same time, Obama’s 52% favorable rating now ties his lowest since he entered the White House. Obama’s favorable rating first fell to 52% in March, and has since stayed in that range.

July 21, 2010 BILL CLINTON MORE POPULAR THAN BARACK OBAMA George W. Bush’s favorable rating is up slightly by Lydia Saad Former President Bill Clinton is currently more well-liked by Americans than both of his successors. Sixty-one percent view him favorably, compared with 52% for President Barack Obama and 45% for former President George W. Bush.

Democrats view Clinton and Obama similarly, but independents and Republicans have more positive views of Clinton than of Obama. Partisan impressions of Bush and Obama are mirror images. Independents, however, view Bush less favorably than Obama (37% vs. 50%). This is the first time in Gallup polling that Clinton’s favorable rating exceeds Obama’s. Clinton’s rating has increased considerably

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Bush’s current 45% favorable rating is 10 points higher than in March 2009, when Gallup last asked about him, and is his highest since January 2007. Bush has remained largely out of the news since leaving office in January 2009. However, as recently as March, he was still seen as more responsible than Obama for the nation’s economic problems. When Bush was president, his favorability sharply descended in 2005 amid mounting public dissatisfaction with the course of the Iraq war. It has since remained well below 50%.

Bottom Line As was evident during the Clinton and Bush presidencies, the challenges of public office can take a toll on the personal images of

elected leaders. This is now the case for President Obama, whose job approval score and favorable rating from Americans have dropped from their post-inauguration heights. All presidents generally hope history will judge them well and that their legacy ratings will improve over time. That process may be starting for Bush. Clinton’s post-presidency favorability has been somewhat volatile, reflecting his various forays into public affairs over the years, but has certainly improved. Whether that is the result of his own actions of late, or reflects Americans’ positive views of his equally visible wife, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, is not clear. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 22, 2010 CONGRESS RANKS LAST IN CONFIDENCE IN INSTITUTIONS Fifty percent “very little”/“no” confidence in Congress reading is record high by Lydia Saad Gallup’s 2010 Confidence in Institutions poll finds Congress ranking dead last out of the 16 institutions rated this year. Eleven percent of Americans say they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress, down from 17% in 2009 and a percentage point lower than the previous low for Congress, recorded in 2008. The Gallup poll was conducted July 8-11, shortly before Congress passed a major financial regulatory reform bill, which President Obama signed into law this week. Underscoring Congress’ image problem, half of Americans now say they have “very little” or “no” confidence in Congress, up from

38% in 2009—and the highest for any institution since Gallup first asked this question in 1973. Previous near-50% readings include 48% found for the presidency in 2008, and 49% for the criminal justice system in 1994. This year’s poll also finds a 15-point drop in high confidence in the presidency, to 36% from 51% in June 2009. Over the same period, President Barack Obama’s approval rating fell by 11 points, from 58% to 47%. However, confidence in the presidency remains higher than in 2008—the last year of George W. Bush’s term—when the figure was 26%.

Military Still No. 1 The military continues its long-standing run as the highest-rated U.S. institution. Small business and the police occupy second and third places, respectively. These three top-tier institutions all earn high confidence from a majority of Americans, something no other institution achieves this year. The military has been No. 1 in Gallup’s annual Confidence in Institutions list continuously since 1998, and has ranked No.1 or No. 2 almost every year since its initial 1975 measure. The high level of confidence in small business contrasts with the low level of confidence in big business; the latter is tied with HMOs at 19% for next-to-last place. Confidence in organized religion is similar to where it has been since 2002, but is significantly lower than in prior years.

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July 22, 2010 MICHELLE OBAMA OUTSHINES ALL OTHERS IN FAVORABILITY POLL Remains more popular than her husband and Hillary Clinton by Lymari Morales First lady Michelle Obama’s favorability rating among Americans tops that of several major political players who have called or might someday seek to call the White House home—including her husband and his two predecessors, former first lady Hillary Clinton, three vice presidents, and a number of potential Republican presidential hopefuls.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The above are the complete results from a Gallup poll conducted July 8-11, 2010, assessing the favorability of several key public fig-

ures; segments of that poll have already been reported on Gallup.com. While Obama does best overall in the current poll, her 66% favorable rating is not remarkable for a current first lady, who is generally subject to less news coverage and controversy than active politicians. First lady Obama’s favorable rating is up slightly from last October but down from a peak of 72% in March 2009, just after her husband took office. Mrs. Obama embarked on her high-profile campaign to reduce childhood obesity in America in February 2009. The current first lady’s favorable rating has yet to match those enjoyed by her predecessor Laura Bush, who left the White House in 2009 with a 76% favorable rating, down marginally from her high of 80% in 2005.

Former first lady Clinton is also not far behind Obama, as she is enjoying some of her best ratings yet during the 17 years in which she has been first lady, U.S. senator from New York, presidential candidate, and now secretary of state. Clinton received her highest favorable ratings in 1998 and early 1999, as her husband was undergoing impeachment. Her current 61% rating is down slightly from 65% in January 2009, but well above the numbers seen in much of the past decade.

Despite their many differences, in terms of time as a public figure and roles held, Obama and Clinton are currently quite similarly liked by most demographic segments of the population. Obama in most cases holds a slight edge similar to that seen in the national average. Republicans give Obama a nine-point edge over Clinton (37% to 28%), while her ratings among independents (67% to 61%) and Democrats (91% to 88%) are closely matched. Clinton’s work as a politician in her own right makes her image more vulnerable than that of Obama, whose public career to date remains more tethered to her role as first lady. That said, Americans have 14 times named Clinton as their “Most Admired Woman,” including in 2009, when she easily won more mentions than Obama. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 23, 2010 HAWAII LEADS IN WELLBEING; WEST VIRGINIA RANKS LAST Across the majority of states, wellbeing is improving so far in 2010 compared with 2009 by Elizabeth Mendes Residents of Hawaii led the nation in wellbeing in the first half of 2010, holding on to their 2009 top spot and delivering the highest Well-Being Index score on record for any state since Gallup and Healthways began tracking scores in 2008. West Virginia had the lowest Well-Being Index score, as it did in 2008 and in 2009.

During the first six months of 2010, the Well-Being Index score for the nation as a whole was 67.0, up significantly from 65.9 in 2009 and 2008. U.S. wellbeing has been inching up on a monthly basis throughout 2010, with the increases primarily driven by Americans’ improved ratings of their current and future lives. And while the midyear state Well-Being Index scores provide a preliminary reading ahead of the year-long rankings, so far in 2010 the large majority of states are trending in a positive direction compared with 2009. These results are based on an aggregate of January-June 2010 Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data, which includes interviews with more than 170,000 adults nationwide in all 50 states, excluding the District of Columbia. Nine of the 12 states in the top 10 in wellbeing are located in the West and Midwest, as they were in prior years. And half of the bottom 10 wellbeing states are in the South: Mississippi, Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee. The Well-Being Index score for each state is an average of six sub-indexes, which individually measure Americans’ life evaluation, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. The Well-Being Index is calculated on a scale of 0 to 100, where a score of 100 represents ideal wellbeing. Residents of Hawaii have the best scores in the nation on three of the six wellbeing sub-indexes: Life Evaluation, Emotional Health, and Physical Health. Residents of Vermont boast the best healthy behavior so far in 2010, and Minnesotans are reporting the best access to basic necessities this year as they did in 2009. During the first half of the year, Nebraska held the high score on the Work Environment Index. West Virginia maintains its worst-in-the-nation position on the Life Evaluation, Emotional Health, and Physical Health indexes. And residents in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Delaware continued to have

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the lowest scores in the Healthy Behavior, Basic Access, and Work Environment indexes, respectively, in America. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 176,193 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

July 23, 2010 AMERICANS’ CONFIDENCE IN BANKS NOT IMPROVING Fewer than one in four (23%) express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in banks by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist The percentage of Americans saying they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in U.S. banks is at 23% this year—essentially unchanged from 22% last year, and far below the pre-recession level of 41% in June 2007.

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For the second year in a row, the percentage of Americans expressing very little or no confidence in U.S. banks exceeds the percentage expressing a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. This was not the case as recently as June 2007, before the recession began, and even June 2008, just prior to the financial crisis later that year.

In sum, these results suggest that much needs to be done to restore Americans’ trust in the U.S. banking system. For example, this poll was taken prior to the passage and signing of the Wall Street reform legislation. The politics surrounding that legislative effort as it worked its way through Congress probably did not help build confidence in U.S. banks. It remains to be seen whether the regulatory decisions that follow will do more to build confidence in the U.S. banking system than hurt it. The U.S. needs a healthy financial system to achieve a sustainable economic recovery going forward. While it will take time, restoring Americans’ confidence in U.S. banks is an essential element in achieving that goal. Survey Methods

Confidence Down in All Regions From Pre-Crisis Levels The degree of confidence in banks has fallen in all regions of the country compared with the pre-recession/financial crisis days of 2007. The difference between then and 2010 shows the degree to which confidence is recovering in various parts of the nation. The largest decline is in the West, probably reflecting the continued problems in the housing sector in many Western states. The smallest is in the East—but this includes an improvement from the financial crisis days of 2009—even as confidence levels in the West continued to decline.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Confidence in U.S. Banks Remains Fragile As Europe struggles with its bank “stress tests,” U.S. banks can take some solace in the success of their own tests of a little more than a year ago. In this regard, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Wednesday that, “Like financial conditions generally, the state of the U.S. banking system has also improved significantly since the worst of the crisis. Loss rates on most types of loans seem to be peaking, and, in the aggregate, bank capital ratios have risen to new highs.” On the other hand, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and banking regulators still have a challenge ahead of them. Bernanke also noted that “many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight.” Further, Gallup’s polling shows Americans’ confidence in U.S. banks is stabilizing, although it has done so at historically low levels. Americans still have higher confidence levels in banks than in Congress, HMOs, big business, and organized labor; however, banks trail small business, the medical system, newspapers, and more.

July 26, 2010 MORE STATES “COMPETITIVE” IN TERMS OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrats lose ground, while Republicans gain by Frank Newport More states are politically competitive this year than was the case in 2009, as fewer Americans nationwide identify with the Democratic Party. Vermont—along with the District of Columbia—is the most Democratic state in the U.S. in 2010 so far, while Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho are the most Republican. These results are based on interviews with more than 175,000 U.S. adults, conducted between January and June 2010 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. The accompanying map shows each state’s relative party strength in the first half of 2010. States in which one of the parties

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It is important to note that the classification of states reported here is based on the political affiliations of all residents, and does not necessarily match the party preferences of registered voters or indicate how a state might vote in a given election. Also, the partisanship figures include independents who have a partisan leaning along with each party’s core identifiers. This makes the states more comparable because the percentage of independents varies widely by state, and can understate a party’s true strength in a state. National Democratic Advantage in Party Identification Narrows

enjoys at least a 10 percentage-point advantage in leaned identification are considered solid supporters of that party. States in which a party has between a five- and a nine-point advantage are considered leaning toward that party, and states with less than a five-point advantage for one of the parties are considered competitive.

Nationwide, Democrats have a 4-point party identification advantage over Republicans in 2010 (44% to 40%), down from an 8-point advantage in 2009 and a 12-point advantage in 2008. While Democrats’ party strength fell in each of the last two years, Republicans have not gained concomitantly. Instead, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with or lean toward either political party has increased.

Bottom Line

Solidly Democratic states tend to cluster in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with a few exceptions in the far West (California, Hawaii, and Oregon), one in the Midwest (Illinois), and one in the Southwest (New Mexico). Solidly Republican states are all West of the Mississippi, including Alaska and states in the Mountain West (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana) and the Midwest (Nebraska and Kansas). The most politically competitive states in the Union, all of which have Democratic-Republican gaps of less than one point, are Colorado, Mississippi, Missouri, and Virginia. There are 10 fewer states in the solid Democratic category thus far in 2010 than there were in 2009, and one fewer state in the leaning Democratic category. At the same time, there are three more solid Republican states, and four more in the leaning Republican category. Sixteen states can be classified as competitive, four more than last year.

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Democrats’ advantage in party identification continues to dwindle this year. Fewer Americans identify as Democrats, and more say they don’t identify with or lean toward either party. On a state-by-state level, this means more states are now classified as competitive or leaning/solidly Republican than has been the case over the past two years, and fewer as leaning/solidly Democratic. Some shift toward independent party identification is to be expected in the years between presidential elections; in presidential election years, party allegiance tends to be at its height. The key finding at this juncture is that Democrats, not Republicans, have been the net losers as Americans shift away from the major parties. The overall result is a more competitive partisan environment this year than has been the case in the last two years, underscoring the potential for Republicans to do well and pick up seats in this year’s midterm elections. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking, with a random sample of 176,545 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

cans are the most likely to favor reduced immigration, but views by party do not diverge to the extent they do on other issues. July 27, 2010 AMID IMMIGRATION DEBATE, AMERICANS’ VIEWS EASE SLIGHTLY Preference for decreased immigration remains, but to a lesser degree than a year ago by Lymari Morales Americans remain more likely to say immigration should be decreased (45%) rather than kept at its present level (34%) or increased (17%), but the gap between the two most popular options has narrowed from a year ago. The shift comes amid continuing political and legal wrangling over comprehensive immigration reform and the passage of Arizona’s contested immigration law.

The Gallup survey conducted July 8-11, 2010, marks an easing of views from last year, when Americans more clearly favored less immigration over the status quo, and a return to the more divided views of 2007. The national debate over immigration, plus Arizona’s new law and an improving but still struggling economy are likely all in play as Americans assess the issue. Americans have generally been tougher on immigration since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, than they were immediately before them, in most instances supporting less immigration rather than the same amount or more, but rarely providing a clear mandate. The majority of Americans continue to say immigration, on the whole, is a good thing rather than a bad thing for the country— though they are less positive about it now than they have been at most points in the last decade. All three party groups follow the same pattern as the national averages, with at least a plurality preferring decreased immigration and a majority saying immigration overall is a good thing. Republi-

Implications Gallup continues to find Americans expressing fairly nuanced views on immigration. While Americans are consistent in saying they do not want immigration increased, they are more divided and wavering about whether immigration should be decreased or kept at its present level. Americans see value in both halting the incoming flow of illegal immigrants and dealing with those currently in the United States. They are also more likely to favor than oppose Arizona’s new immigration law and more likely to oppose than favor the federal government lawsuit to block that law. Federal action to date reflects a sense of the complexities involved. While immigration reform has yet to become a near-term legislative priority, President Obama earlier this month said his administration would demand more accountability for enforcing existing immigration laws, and urged all parties to move beyond “the two poles of this debate.” According to a report in Monday’s Washington Post, the administration is deporting record numbers of illegal immigrants and performing more audits of businesses believed to be hiring illegal workers. Immigration ranks fourth among the most important problems facing the country in the same July 8-11 Gallup poll, conducted prior to the passage of financial reform legislation—which up to now presented a competing priority. As lawmakers consider how to address the immigration issue going forward, they would be wise to remember that Americans tend to see immigration as a good thing but at the same time tend to want less of it. Taken together, their views suggest widespread support for policies to make legal—rather than illegal— immigration the norm. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020

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adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Confidence in Small Business Stays High Americans’ current confidence in small business is essentially unchanged from last year’s level, though it is up from the prefinancial-crisis days of June 2007 and June 2008.

Gallup first asked about confidence in small business in 1997, and has done so every year since 2007. Confidence was highest last year, at 67%, and has never been lower than 57%. Six percent of Americans express “very little” or “no” confidence in small business—essentially unchanged since the pre-recession days of 2007. Confidence in Big Business Little Improved From 2009 Low

July 27, 2010 AMERICANS THREE TIMES AS CONFIDENT IN SMALL VS. BIG BUSINESS Confidence gap greater now than prior to the recession and financial collapse

At 19%, Americans’ confidence in big business is up slightly from last year’s record low of 16%; still, big business outperforms only Congress in this year’s rankings. Similarly, the 38% saying they have very little or no faith in big business is down slightly from last year, but trails only Congress, at 50%.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist During the ups and downs of this U.S. recession, Americans’ faith in small business has grown, while their faith in big business has not. Three times more Americans now say they have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in small business (66%) than say this about big business (19%). And this gap has grown since the global financial collapse.

The high level of confidence Americans have in small business gives it a second-place ranking among the 16 institutions rated this year, while big business ties for second to last with HMOs.

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Gallup trends suggest that Americans have never shown much confidence in big business. Since the 1930s, many Americans have held a certain degree of skepticism about the market power wielded by big companies—the basis of many antitrust laws. In turn, this has made those companies easy political villains. Confidence in big business peaked in 1975, at 34%, up from 26% in the initial confidence survey in 1973. Far more Americans today are not confident than are confident in big business: 38% express very little or no confidence, slightly improved from a year ago (41%). Since 2007, nearly twice as many Americans have expressed very little or no confidence in big business as opposed to a great deal or quite a lot of confidence.

Leveraging Americans’ Confidence in Small Business It is not surprising that so many Americans have more confidence in small business than in big business. People often know the small business owners in their communities as friends and neighbors. Rightly or wrongly, big businesses are often perceived as distant and having little or no interest in the many local communities they serve. These negative perceptions of big business have been exacerbated by globalization and the failure and then bailout of big businesses during the past couple of years. Right now, Congress has before it a new legislative effort to help small businesses get credit and expand in the current economic environment. In part, this may reflect a general recognition that small businesses drive U.S. job growth and, thus, that the government needs to find ways to encourage them to expand. Another reason may relate to the political appeal of Gallup’s findings that Americans across gender, age, income, and ideology categories have much more confidence in small businesses. Despite Americans’ ongoing support, America’s small businesses continue to struggle in the current economic environment. While government might try to help, the best thing it could do to help small businesses deliver might simply be to get the overall U.S. economy growing more rapidly.

July 28, 2010 ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN D.C., IOWA, MINN., N.D. W. Va. scores lowest on Gallup Economic Confidence Index by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans as a whole remained more pessimistic than optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy in the first half of 2010, though residents of the District of Columbia, Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota were relatively more upbeat. West Virginians were the most negative about economic conditions during this time.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup Daily tracking each day asks Americans to assess the current state of the U.S. economy and to say whether the economy is getting better or worse. The responses to these two questions are combined into Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, which has a theoretical range of -100 to +100. Negative scores indicate Americans are more pessimistic than optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy. The average nationwide score in the first half of 2010 was -26, and each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia scored below zero during this time. The states in the top and bottom 10 are regionally diverse. The Midwest claims 4 of the top 10 states, and 2 more plus the District of Columbia are in the Mid-Atlantic, but at least 1 state from each of the four major regions of the country is represented. Five Mountain West states (Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona, and Montana) and three New England states (Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island) make up most of the least economically confident states, but again, at least one state from each of the four major regions ranks in the bottom 10. Job Creation and Economic Confidence Though Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index items ask specifically about national economic conditions, local economic conditions surely color respondents’ perceptions of the national economy. These include working Americans’ observations of hiring activity at their places of business; thus, there is much overlap between the top- and bottom-ranking states on Gallup’s Economic Confidence and Job Creation Indexes. Five states and the District of Columbia ranked in the top 10 in the first half of this year for both job creation and economic confidence—Iowa, North Dakota, Texas, Maryland, and Virginia. The higher job creation and economic confidence scores in the District of

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the disconnect could be explained on the basis of politics, as West Virginia is one of the states least likely to have approved of the job Barack Obama did as president during the first half of this year, and economic confidence is influenced by one’s political leanings. Wyoming and Idaho also rank near the bottom in terms of both economic confidence and Obama job approval. Likewise, some of the states most likely to have approved of Obama in the first half of 2010 (Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia) were also among the most economically confident states during this time. Thus, states’ economic confidence rankings reflect a mix of economic conditions and political leanings within each state. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 86,613 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of sampling error for individual states are higher. Most states have a margin of error of ±4 percentage points or less, though margins of error are as high as ±9 percentage points in the District of Columbia and ±8 percentage points in Wyoming, Hawaii, North Dakota, and South Dakota. Each state’s data are weighted to ensure they are representative of that state’s adult population on demographic characteristics. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia likely reflect expanded federal government employment that has benefited residents in that area. Seven states—Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Wyoming—ranked in the bottom 10 in both job creation and economic confidence. Though the two ratings are related, there is more to how Americans rate the economy than just perceptions of the job market. This is apparent in the case of West Virginia, which is tied for eighth in job creation but ranks last in economic confidence. To some degree,

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July 29, 2010 AMERICANS LOOK TO WEALTHY TO HELP SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY Favor expanding Social Security taxes, limiting benefits for high-income Americans by Jeffrey M. Jones Of six possible ways to address concerns with the Social Security system in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll, a majority of Americans favor two, both of which would affect only wealthy Americans. Less than a majority favor proposals that would involve increasing taxes, reducing benefits, or increasing the eligibility age for larger segments of the general public. favor the proposals affecting upper-income Americans, and increasing Social Security taxes on all workers. Still, a majority of Republicans favor the proposals that would target wealthier Americans, and less than a majority of Democrats think raising Social Security taxes on all workers is a good idea.

The July 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll testing these ways to fix Social Security found growing doubts among both retired and nonretired Americans about the future of their own Social Security benefits. The poll also found the highest percentage of Americans in a Gallup survey to date saying the Social Security system is “in a state of crisis” or has “major problems.” The lack of support for most proposals to address problems with the Social Security system underscores the difficulty U.S. lawmakers will have in reforming it. Even the Democratic leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives are themselves divided on some of these, such as whether to raise the age at which people could receive full Social Security retirement benefits. Sixty-three percent of Americans believe this approach is a bad idea, making it (along with increasing Social Security taxes on all workers) the least popular of the six proposals tested in the poll. Americans’ opinions on various ways to ensure the future of Social Security have not changed much since 2005, when President Bush sought unsuccessfully to modify the system. At that time, as now, the proposals aimed at the wealthy were the only ones to garner majority support. Over the past five years, the only idea to receive a significant uptick in support is reducing retirement benefits for people currently under age 55, though still well less than a majority think this is a good idea. There is general consensus on the Social Security proposals by age—those that would primarily affect high-income Americans are the most popular among both young and old. The only notable difference by age concerns the idea of increasing the age at which people are eligible to receive full retirement benefits, which is endorsed by 50% of senior citizens but only 31% of all those under age 65. Political differences exist on some, but not all, of the proposals. Democrats are more likely than independents and Republicans to

Bottom Line The future health of the U.S. Social Security system is likely to be a topic of increasing discussion in the next few weeks as Americans acknowledge the 75th anniversary of its signing into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. President Obama’s deficit commission may consider changes to Social Security and other entitlement programs as ways to reduce the federal budget deficit. Americans recognize the future of the Social Security system is in some peril but find few methods for attempting to fix it to their liking, other than those aimed at wealthy Americans. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

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Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

sumption is church attendance. Those who seldom or never attend church are substantially more likely than more frequent church attenders to say they drink; and those who have no religious identity, Catholics, and non-Christians are more likely to drink than Protestants. Medical research shows that moderate drinking is associated with a lower probability of heart trouble, and Gallup has recently confirmed that the incidence of heart attacks increases substantially with age. Still, the data indicate that many older Americans are not taking advantage of the prophylactic benefit of drinking; 59% of older Americans drink alcohol, substantially lower than the percentages among those who are younger. Additionally, those with the lowest education levels and lowest incomes are less likely to drink than others.

July 30, 2010 U.S. DRINKING RATE EDGES UP SLIGHTLY TO 25-YEAR HIGH Beer remains beverage of choice for drinkers by Frank Newport Sixty-seven percent of U.S. adults drink alcohol, a slight increase over last year and the highest reading recorded since 1985 by one percentage point. Beer remains the favorite beverage among drinkers, followed by wine and then liquor.

Beer Remains Dominant as Preferred Beverage Beer remains the preferred beverage of choice among Americans who drink alcohol, as it has every year since 1992—with the exception of 2005, when wine edged into the top spot.

Despite some yearly fluctuations, the percentage of Americans who say they drink alcohol has been remarkably stable over Gallup’s 71 years of tracking it. The high point for drinking came in 19761978, when 71% said they drank alcohol. The low of 55% was recorded in 1958. When Gallup first asked Americans about drinking, in the waning days of the Great Depression in 1939, 58% of adults said they were drinkers. A majority of Americans in most demographic subgroups of the population drink, though in some groups drinking is more prevalent than in others. One of the most significant predictors of alcohol con256

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Beer’s popularity has slipped slightly over the years. In 1992 and 1994, 47% of drinkers named it as their preferred drink, compared with 41% this year. Beverage preferences vary widely across demographic groups, with beer most preferred among men, younger drinkers, and those in the Midwest. Wine ranks as the preferred beverage among women and older Americans.

beer as their preferred beverage, and among whom wine is slightly behind even liquor. By contrast, drinkers 55 and older clearly choose wine as their preferred beverage. Although beer is the top choice in all four major regions of the country, residents on the two coasts are somewhat more likely to prefer wine than are those living elsewhere. Beer remains most popular in the Midwest. Survey Methods

Men under 50 are among those who most strongly prefer beer, which does not come as a surprise to those who observe the preponderance of beer ads embedded in sports and other programming aimed at young men. Older women are the biggest fans of wine, while roughly equal numbers of women under 50 choose wine and beer. The older skew in preference for wine is starkly apparent when one looks at drinkers aged 18 to 34, who are highly likely to choose

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 685 adults who drink alcoholic beverages, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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August 02, 2010 WYOMING, MISSISSIPPI, UTAH RANK AS MOST CONSERVATIVE STATES The District of Columbia and four New England states rank as most liberal by Jeffrey M. Jones A majority of Wyoming, Mississippi, and Utah residents identified as conservative rather than moderate or liberal during the first half of 2010, making these the most politically conservative states in the U.S. The District of Columbia had the greatest percentage of liberals, along with four New England states: Rhode Island, Connecticut, Vermont, and Massachusetts.

The group of most conservative states includes five Southern states, three Western states, and three states from the Midwest. The 10 most liberal states are primarily made up of Northeastern states, but also include the Pacific Coast states of Oregon and Washington. In general, Americans are much more likely to identify politically as conservative than as liberal, and this has been the case for many years. As a result, the 10 most conservative states have no fewer than 46% of their residents identifying as conservative. In contrast, the 10 most liberal states have a much lower threshold of 25% liberal identifiers in their states. On average, conservatives outnumber liberals by about 20 percentage points across all states. Only in the District of Columbia and Rhode Island did liberals outnumber conservatives during the first half of 2010. Ideology and Partisanship As one would expect, there is overlap between the most liberal and Democratic states and most conservative and Republican states. The

five most liberal states and New York all appear in the top 10 most Democratic states. Likewise, six of the most conservative states (Wyoming, Utah, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, and Nebraska) also rank among the most Republican. Notably, whereas Southern states comprise half of the 10 most conservative states, only Alabama from that region ranks among the most Republican. This dichotomy likely stems from the South’s conservative political roots but also its historical affiliation with the Democratic Party. Southerners’ affiliation with the Democratic Party has weakened in the past few decades as Southern states have become reliably Republican in voting for president and have elected increasing numbers of Republicans to Congress, governor, and state legislatures.

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 90,942 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of sampling error for individual states are higher. Most states have a margin of error of ±3 percentage points or less, though margins of error are as high as ±9 percentage points in the District of Columbia and ±8 percentage points in Wyoming, Hawaii, and North Dakota. Each state’s data are weighted to ensure they are representative of that state’s adult population on demographic characteristics. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

One reason Americans’ views on U.S. progress may have not changed in recent weeks is because the story of the leaked documents has not captured the public’s attention to a large degree. Fifty-three percent of Americans claim to be following news about the leaked documents “very” (16%) or “somewhat closely” (37%), a belowaverage level of national attention for news events Gallup has tested over the past two decades. Americans generally agree the leaked documents should not have been published on the Internet, with 66% saying it was wrong for the website WikiLeaks to have done so; 25% believe the website was right. This general assessment holds among those paying high as well as low levels of attention to the story. Obama Approval on Afghanistan Falls

August 03, 2010 IN U.S., NEW HIGH OF 43% CALL AFGHANISTAN WAR A “MISTAKE” Obama’s approval rating on Afghanistan at 36% by Jeffrey M. Jones After the Internet publication of tens of thousands of leaked classified documents on the war in Afghanistan, 43% of Americans now say the United States made a mistake in sending troops there, up slightly from just before the release (38%). While Americans are still more likely to support than oppose the war, the percentage who say it was a mistake to get involved is at a new high. The publication of the documents on the website WikiLeaks revealed the ongoing struggles the U.S. military has faced in Afghanistan trying to weaken terrorist elements in the region. But the release of these documents alone does not seem to have changed Americans’ assessments of U.S. progress in the war, which were already pessimistic in a Gallup poll conducted early last month. In fact, Americans’ views of U.S. progress have been decidedly negative since late last summer. 260

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The July 27-Aug. 1 USA Today/Gallup poll also finds a sharp decline in President Obama’s approval rating for handling the war in Afghanistan, to 36%, down from 48% in February. Given the roughly six-month span between measures, it is not clear how much of a role the leaked documents played as opposed to more general dissatisfaction with the president’s policies or management of the war. The current reading is one percentage point higher than the president’s lowest Afghanistan approval rating to date, 35%, from last November when Obama was in the process of finalizing his new policy toward the conflict. The decline in Obama’s Afghanistan approval rating since February is evident among all party groups, though slightly greater among Republicans and independents than Democrats. Obama’s current rating for handling Afghanistan is below his overall job approval rating, which was 41% in the July 27-Aug. 1 poll and 45% in the latest Gallup Daily tracking weekly average. Implications The 43% of Americans calling the decision to send U.S. military forces into Afghanistan a mistake marks the high point in the nearly

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 03, 2010 BLACKS AND WHITES CONTINUE TO DIFFER SHARPLY ON OBAMA Obama’s approval ratings among these groups are at or tied with their lowest levels to date by Frank Newport

nine-year war, although a slight majority continue to support the decision. Public support persists even though for most of the last several years Americans have generally thought the war has been going badly for the United States, and many more currently disapprove than approve of President Obama’s handling of the situation. Thus, the leaking of the documents may not be providing new information to the general public about the progress of the war. And given Americans’ subdued attention to the story, it’s also not clear that Americans are highly familiar with what information those documents reveal. But the documents do remind Americans of the challenges the United States is facing in Afghanistan, and they may have caused an increasing number to question whether the efforts there are worth it. Last week, Congress approved President Obama’s request for continued funding of the war, though by a narrower margin than last year. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 27-Aug. 1, 2010, with a random sample of 1,208 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). The sample included a minimum quota of 180 cell-phone-only respondents and 1,020 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

President Obama’s job approval rating averaged 88% among blacks and 38% among whites in July, a 50-percentage-point difference that has been consistent in recent months but is much larger than in the initial months of the Obama presidency. Obama’s job approval ratings among blacks, whites, and Hispanics in July are all at their lowest levels to date, although the overwhelming majority of blacks still approve.

Issues of race and the Obama presidency have been in the news again in recent weeks with the situation involving Shirley Sherrod, the black Department of Agriculture employee who was fired and then offered a new position at the agency after edited videos of a speech she made dealing with racial matters were widely circulated on the Internet. Blacks’ approval of the job Obama is doing dipped below the 90% threshold for the second month in a row in July; the 88% July average is the lowest monthly average approval rating blacks have given Obama yet, although not significantly lower than the 89% recorded in June. The slight drop in blacks’ ratings since May matches the pattern among whites and Hispanics. Obama’s June and July ratings among whites are the lowest monthly ratings of his administration among that group, as is his 54% July rating among Hispanics. Whites’ approval of Obama is down 24 points from the high of 62% in January 2009. Hispanics’ approval has dropped 28 points from its 82% peak in May 2009. Blacks’ approval has been much more stable, falling seven points from the high of 95% in June 2009. Clinton Also Had 90% Job Approval Among Blacks Obama’s high ratings among black Americans are not unprecedented. Fellow Democrat Bill Clinton averaged 81% approval among

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blacks during his term in office, including 89% or 90% average approval in the last three years of his presidency.

However, the job approval gap between blacks and whites has become significantly larger in the Obama administration than it was in any year of the Clinton administration. Clinton received relatively low ratings among whites during his first years in office, but he also received ratings as low as 71%, on average, among blacks from 1995 to 1996. By contrast, Obama has consistently received much higher ratings among blacks even while his ratings among whites have been as low as or lower than those that Clinton received.

For results based on the total sample of 1,018 Hispanics, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Overall, Obama Job Rating at 46% Obama’s overall job approval rating in July is 46%, unchanged from June, and down four points from February of this year. Obama enjoyed his highest monthly average of 66% in January 2009, spanning his first 11 days in office, and was still at 65% in May 2009. His approval ratings then fell sharply between May and September of last year, down 13 points from 65% to 52% over a five-month span.

August 04, 2010 ONE IN THREE ADULTS OBESE IN AMERICA’S MOST OBESE STATES Obesity rates are higher in most states so far in 2010 compared with 2008 by Dan Witters West Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Arkansas have the highest obesity rates in America in the first half of 2010. Colorado, Massachusetts, Utah, and Hawaii have the lowest rates. Obesity rates are more than nine percentage points higher, on average, in the 10 most obese states compared with the 10 least obese states (31.4% vs. 22.3%, respectively).

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking July 1-31, 2010, with a random sample of 15,467 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 12,347 non-Hispanic whites, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 996 non-Hispanic blacks, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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According to Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index midyear results, an average of 26.7% of Americans were obese in the first six months of 2010, similar to the 26.5% average for all of 2009, but up significantly from 25.5% in 2008. These midyear results for the

nation and for each state are based on respondents’ self-reports of their height and weight, which are then used to calculate standard Body Mass Index (BMI) scores. Individual BMI values of 30 or above are classified as “obese.” Across the U.S., Gallup finds the highest obesity rates in the South and Midwest and the lowest in the West and Mountain West. The Northeast has a mixture of states with high and low levels of obesity.

Obesity is also generally increasing at a faster rate among the states that already have the highest percentage of obese residents, with 5 of the 10 most obese states also appearing on the top 10 list of greatest increases in obesity rates since 2008. Collectively, obesity rates rose by 2.2 points in the 10 most obese states in the first half of 2010 compared with 2008. In the 10 least obese states, obesity rates increased 0.7 points over the same time period. Among all states during this time, obesity rates have increased the most in New Hampshire (+6.0 points), Wyoming (+5.7), Maine (+4.6), and South Dakota (+4.5).

Delaware (down 2.7 points) and Rhode Island (down 1.2 points) are the only two states with at least one-point declines in obesity since 2008. High Blood Pressure Diagnosis Rampant in High Obesity States The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data underscore the extent of the relationship between obesity and high blood pressure. On average, 26.1% of residents in the 10 states with the lowest obesity rates report having ever been diagnosed with high blood pressure, compared with 35.7% of those living in the 10 states with the highest obesity rates. Diagnoses of high cholesterol, diabetes, and heart attack are all also higher in the states with the highest obesity rates as are days missed of normal activity due to health problems.

Implications Taken together, these data reveal where America’s obesity crisis is hitting the hardest. The most obese states in America have higherthan-average rates of residents facing serious health challenges, thus

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likely elevating healthcare costs. It is also alarming that even in the least obese state in the country, Colorado, one in five residents are obese and that nationwide obesity is on the rise. These data call into question whether efforts to fight obesity are paying off at significant rates, though these efforts may have received a boost when First Lady Michelle Obama launched her own campaign to combat childhood obesity earlier this year. As new laws for “sugar taxes” are passed and implemented in states such as Washington, Colorado, and Iowa, the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index will help to ascertain whether they are able to create any measurable improvement in obesity. In the meantime, it is clear that every state in the nation has work to do to reverse an alarming trend with implications for America’s collective physical health and financial bottom line. Survey Methods

ago, but it is higher than the rates of opposition Gallup found to both of George W. Bush’s successful nominees—Samuel Alito and John Roberts.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 176,193 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.3 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for most states is ±1 to ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±4 percentage points for smaller states such as Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Hawaii. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Support for Kagan Lower Across the Board

About the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index measures the daily pulse of U.S. wellbeing and provides best-in-class solutions for a healthier world. To learn more, please visit well-beingindex.com.

August 04, 2010 SUPPORT FOR CONFIRMING ELENA KAGAN REMAINS IN MID-40S The 36% opposed matches the highest recorded for successful nominees by Lydia Saad Just under half of Americans—46%—would like to see the U.S. Senate vote to confirm Solicitor General Elena Kagan to the U.S. Supreme Court, a bit more than the 36% who disagree. Public support for Kagan has been fairly steady at this level since May, just prior to the start of her Senate confirmation hearings. Kagan has reportedly won over enough Senate Republicans to assure her confirmation this week as the fourth female U.S. Supreme Court justice. If confirmed, she will be the first Supreme Court nominee in recent polling history to succeed with less than half of Americans in favor. The 36% who oppose Kagan is identical to the percentage who opposed confirming Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor a year

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Compared with public support for Sotomayor at a similar point on her path to the high court, support for Kagan is lower across the board—including across gender, age, and political lines. Notably, while both women were nominated by Democratic President Barack Obama, Democrats are less likely to say the Senate should vote in favor of Kagan (70%) than they were to say this about Sotomayor (80%). However, Democratic opposition is identical, at 13%. Democrats are simply much more likely to have no opinion of Kagan than they were of Sotomayor (17% vs. 7%)—similar to the pattern among all Americans. Bottom Line Americans generally favor Senate confirmation of Elena Kagan to replace the retiring Justice John Paul Stevens on the U.S. Supreme Court, but the 46% to 36% margin in favor is weak by historical standards. To some extent this is due to Americans’ lack of familiarity with her, but the 36% opposed is also high for a successful nominee. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 27-Aug. 1, 2010, with a random sample of 1,208 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

icans’ evaluations of the situation in Iraq turned more positive. Americans gradually viewed the surge itself as making conditions in Iraq better rather than worse. Republicans are more positive than Democrats about the United States’ progress in Iraq, though the difference between these party groups is not huge. In fact, the partisan gap in assessments of the war has shrunk considerably over the past two years. phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). This sample includes a minimum quota of 180 cell-phone-only respondents and 1,020 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 05, 2010 AMERICANS DIVIDED ON HOW WELL IRAQ WAR IS GOING FOR U.S. Majority continue to believe U.S. made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq

Most Continue to Oppose War The poll finds 54% of Americans saying it was “a mistake” for the United States to send troops to Iraq, while 44% disagree. In most polls over the past five years, Gallup has found a majority calling the decision to send troops a mistake, with a high of 63% opposition in April 2008. In contrast, Gallup has yet to find a majority calling the war in Afghanistan a mistake. Opposition to the war in Iraq has eased somewhat in the last two years as Americans have become more optimistic about how the U.S. has been doing in Iraq.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are about evenly divided as to whether things are going “well” or “badly” for the United States in Iraq. Since the fall of 2008, Americans have been a bit more positive than negative in their evaluations, after being largely negative for most of the period from September 2003 to August 2008. The July 8-11 poll was conducted as the United States continues to reduce its military presence in Iraq, in preparation for ending its combat operations there on Aug. 31. It was not long ago—January 2007—that positive perceptions of the way things are going in Iraq hit their all-time low of 28%. However, after the U.S. implemented a major surge in its forces in 2007, and began to see a reduction in violence later that year, Amer-

There continue to be large partisan differences in support for the war—in the latest poll, 74% of Democrats say the war is a mistake,

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compared with 25% of Republicans. Fifty-seven percent of independents hold this view. These party gaps are typical of what Gallup has found in recent years. To the extent opposition has eased, it is evident mostly among Democrats and, to a lesser extent, independents. Bottom Line The Iraq war remains unpopular with the majority of Americans, though in recent years there has been a growing belief that things are going better for the U.S. in Iraq than was the case before the surge of U.S. troops. The Aug. 31 deadline for drawing U.S. troops down to 50,000 and handing over responsibility for maintaining security in Iraq marks a major turning point in the war. It is unclear whether this transition will alter Americans’ views of the war. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 06, 2010 GOV’T. EMPLOYMENT RANGES FROM 38% IN D.C. TO 12% IN OHIO Federal, state, or local government employs 17% of U.S. workers nationally by Lymari Morales Seventeen percent of U.S. workers say they work for federal, state, or local government, ranging from 38% in Washington, D.C., to 12% in Ohio. More than a quarter of workers in Washington, D.C., Alaska, Virginia, and Maryland work for government, as do upwards of 15% in the vast majority of states. The findings reflect interviews with 98,755 adults, employed full time or part time, conducted Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, as part of Gallup

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Daily tracking. Gallup asks employed Americans first if they work for the government, then whether they work for federal, state, or local government. The five states with the highest percentage of government workers also have the highest percentage of federal workers, which is much of what sets them apart from the rest of the nation. The U.S. Postal Service is the nation’s top federal employer, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, accounting for 23% of government jobs across the country. The U.S. military is another major government employer, with bases spread throughout the nation, including in several of the states with high percentages of government workers. North Carolina, for example, is home to Ft. Bragg, one of the nation’s largest U.S. military bases. A separate Gallup question confirms that many of these states with high government employment, including Alaska, Hawaii, Virginia, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, have above-average percentages of active duty military. Other federal government jobs likely to be geographically dispersed include work in the U.S. justice system, agriculture, homeland security, transportation, and the administration of health services, such as Medicare and Medicaid. Alaska and Hawaii, along with South Carolina, have the highest percentages of state government workers (11%). In general, however, the percentages of state and local workers are in the single digits. State workers vary widely by profession, and include, for example, correctional officers, while local government workers include teachers, firefighters, and police. The Midwest stands out clearly as the region with the smallest proportions of government workers, though they still make up at least 12% of workers in every state. Gallup has found more job creation in the federal government than in the private sector, but the government employment results do not show a strong relationship to Gallup’s Job Creation Index. While the four states with the highest percentage of government workers also have some of the best job markets, other states with high government employment do not fare as well. Nevada, for example, ranks last in Gallup’s Job Creation Index despite having higher-range government employment. And Pennsylvania has one of the best job markets despite having lower-range government employment. Together, the data showcase the dispersion of government workers across the nation. While Washington, D.C., has by far the most government workers, no less than 12% of workers in any U.S. state report working for the government. The findings underscore the

For results based on the total sample of workers, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of sampling error for most states is ±3 to ±4 percentage points, but is as high as ±8 percentage points for the District of Columbia and ±7 percentage points for smaller states such as Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Hawaii. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 06, 2010 AMERICANS WANT SMOKING OFF THE MENU AT RESTAURANTS More than half believe workplaces and hotels should accommodate smokers by Lydia Saad When it comes to smokers lighting up in public, Americans are most accepting of smoking in bars and least accepting of it in restaurants. Fifty-nine percent this year say smoking should be banned in restaurants, up from 54% in 2007.

extent to which government employment represents a crucial part of the U.S. economy. The potential for growth and for contraction within key sectors of the federal government, along with cutbacks in state and local government, have clear implications for the U.S. employment picture overall—and far beyond the nation’s capital. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 1-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 98,755 adults employed full or part time, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

While Americans generally believe smoking and eating out don’t mix, they do favor accommodating smokers in hotels/motels and the workplace via designated smoking areas. Americans are particularly tolerant of smoking in bars, as a substantial minority, 23%, say there should be no restrictions in bars—in addition to the 43% favoring designated smoking areas.

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Tide of Opinion Moving Against Smokers Opposition to smoking in restaurants, hotels/motels, and the workplace has hardened significantly since Gallup first asked Americans about it in 1987. The percentage in favor of banning smoking in restaurants and hotels/motels has more than tripled, and has more than doubled for the workplace. “Bars” was added to the list in 2003. Since then, the percentage who favor banning smoking in bars has grown at a rate similar to that seen for restaurants.

From 1987 to today, the percentage of regular cigarette smokers among the U.S. adult population as measured by Gallup has declined from 30% to 22%, explaining some of the decline in support for public smoking. Gallup has consistently found nonsmokers much more likely than smokers to favor bans in restaurants and other locations, including in the current poll. Additionally, the percentage who believe secondhand smoke poses a significant health risk for nonsmokers has increased to 55% today, up from 36% in Gallup’s first measure of this in 1994. However, the major shift in attitudes about secondhand smoke occurred in the second half of the 1990s. Thus, it is not clear that the increased opposition to public smoking more recently is related to heightened concern about the health risks to nonsmokers.

the American public would prefer, while others don’t go nearly far enough. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 09, 2010 AVG. MIDTERM SEAT LOSS 36 FOR PRESIDENTS BELOW 50% APPROVAL Presidents above 50% lose average of 14 House seats in midterm elections by Jeffrey M. Jones

Bottom Line Currently, half of U.S. states have broad bans on smoking in enclosed public places, including workplaces, restaurants, and bars. The rest have more limited restrictions, such as requiring designated smoking areas in restaurants and workplaces, or prohibiting smoking only in government buildings and schools. A careful review of these laws could reveal that some states go further in restricting smoking than 268

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Presidents who retain majority job approval from Americans at the time of midterm elections are much less likely to see their party suffer heavy seat losses than are those with sub-50% approval ratings. Since 1946, when presidents are above 50% approval, their party loses an average of 14 seats in the U.S. House in the midterm elections, compared with an average loss of 36 seats when presidents are below that mark. The clear implication is that the Democrats are vulnerable to losing a significant number of House seats this fall with Barack Obama’s approval rating averaging 45% during the last two full weeks of Gallup Daily tracking. The Republicans would need to gain 40 House seats to retake majority control. On a historical basis, the Democrats under Jimmy Carter suffered the slimmest seat loss of a party whose president was below 50% approval, losing 11 seats in the 1978 midterms. More recently, Bill Clinton in 1994 and George W. Bush in 2006 saw their parties lose enough seats in the House to turn party control over to the opposition party when they had less than majority approval. The president’s party nearly always loses seats in midterm elections, regardless of how well the president is rated by the public.

are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Since World War II, only Clinton in 1998 and Bush in 2002 saw their parties gain seats in a midterm. Both men had approval ratings above 60% at the time of those elections. However, the parties of the other three presidents with ratings above 60% (Eisenhower in 1954, Kennedy in 1962, and Reagan in 1986) lost seats. In general, though, the more popular a president is, the fewer seats his party loses, as presidents with approval ratings above 60% have averaged just a three-seat loss. Bottom Line With the Democratic Party in control of the White House and Congress, and key predictors of midterm seat change—including presidential approval, congressional approval, and national satisfaction—below average historically, the Democrats are clearly fighting an uphill battle this midterm election year. In its latest weekly update on midterm voting preferences, Gallup found more registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district than for the Democrat, though Democrats had better showings the prior two weeks. As the midterm campaign kicks off in earnest after Labor Day, the Democratic Party will do its best to convince voters to keep it in the majority. It is unclear to what extent they will employ the president to help them make that case, though his ability to make a positive impact could be limited if his approval ratings continue to register below 50%. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking July 26-Aug. 1, 2010, with a random sample of 3,544 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents

August 09, 2010 AMERICANS’ CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDICAL SYSTEM ON THE REBOUND Confidence in HMOs continues to hover below 20% by Elizabeth Mendes Providing a benchmark as America’s new healthcare reform law begins to take effect, 40% of Americans express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the U.S. medical system, the highest percentage since 2005. Americans’ confidence in the medical system hit a low of 31% in 2007, at a time when confidence across almost all institutions was down, but has been steadily rebounding in the years since.

The medical system ranks fifth out of 16 institutions tested in Gallup’s annual Confidence in Institutions poll, faring better than the U.S. Supreme Court and the presidency but inspiring confidence from less than half of all Americans. Americans’ confidence in the medical system has now returned to the general levels found between 1995 and 2006, although still below the high point of 44% confidence in 2003 and 2004. Americans’ Confidence in HMOs Remains in Low Range Americans’ confidence in health maintenance organizations (HMOs) is less than half that of the medical system as a whole, and exceeds only confidence in Congress among the 16 institutions tested in this year’s poll. While low on an absolute basis, the 19% who express a high level of confidence in HMOs is the highest Gallup has measured

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for this institution, though not significantly better than last year’s 18%.

August 11, 2010 LOW APPROVAL OF CONGRESS NOT BUDGING, NOW 19% Democrats’ approval is up slightly to 38%; Republicans’ hits record-low 5% by Lydia Saad Congress’ job rating from the American people in August remains near the historical lows seen in recent months. Nineteen percent of Americans now approve of the overall job Congress is doing, while 75% disapprove.

At the same time, 32% have “very little” or no confidence in HMOs, a new low. Bottom Line Gallup’s most recent measures of Americans’ confidence in the medical system and HMOs come nearly four months after President Obama signed the new health reform bill, the Affordable Care Act, into law. Major provisions that will affect the way health insurance plans work, including the elimination of lifetime limits on coverage and prohibiting insurance companies from rescinding coverage, have yet to be implemented. These changes and others could have a significant impact on Americans’ perceptions of HMOs and the medical system as a whole. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Congress’ average approval rating thus far in 2010 is 20%— down from 30% in 2009, the first year of the 111th Congress. This year’s average easily trails the 36% average approval Gallup has recorded for Congress since the measure was established in 1974, and is the lowest seen in any midterm congressional election year since then. The record-low single rating for the measure is 14% in July 2008.

With just three months remaining before the congressional midterm elections, public opinion of Congress may be growing slightly more polarized. Democrats’ approval of Congress now stands at 38%, a bit higher than its June and July levels. In contrast, approval among Republicans, as well as independents, is down from where it has been since June. The 5% of Republicans who currently approve of Congress is also the absolute lowest approval rating from members of either party that Gallup has found since at least 1993. Bottom Line The persistently low approval of Congress this year is a strong signal of public discontent with the legislative branch. While it is understandable that Republicans would be unhappy with a Congress that has passed some major legislation initiated by the Democratic Obama administration, it is noteworthy that approval is also low among

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his worst scores for his handling of immigration and the federal budget deficit.

Democrats. A year ago at this time, 55% of Democrats approved of the job Congress was doing. Low congressional job approval is generally associated with large seat losses by the majority party in midterm elections, a sign of potential trouble for the Democrats in 2010. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 27-Aug. 1 and a separate Gallup poll conducted Aug. 5-8, which asked Americans to say whether they approve or disapprove of the way the president is dealing with each of several issues. Both polls measured Obama’s handling of the economy, which Americans rated essentially the same in each (39% and 38%, respectively). Obama’s generally tepid evaluations on issues are not surprising considering his overall job approval rating has consistently been below 50%. There is no clear pattern for how Americans rate the president on international versus domestic issues. For example, on the international side, respondents rate him relatively well for how he has handled terrorism but poorly for his handling of the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan. On the domestic side, Obama gets fairly high ratings for handling race relations and education but respondents rate him poorly for handling immigration, the federal budget deficit, and the economy. Economic Ratings Remain Depressed With the economy ranking as the top problem in Americans’ minds, Obama’s ratings for handling the economy are important to his and his party’s political fortunes. His economic approval ratings are generally weak, at 38% approval. Although these are down significantly from last year, they have not gotten appreciably worse in 2010.

August 11, 2010 ON THE ISSUES, OBAMA FINDS MAJORITY APPROVAL ELUSIVE Scores best on race relations, education by Jeffrey M. Jones Barack Obama’s 52% approval rating for handling race relations is the only issue among 13 tested in two recent Gallup polls for which the president receives majority-level approval. In fact, a majority disapprove of the job the president is doing on eight of these issues, with

That same general pattern of declining ratings in 2009 and flat ratings in 2010 also applies to Obama’s ratings on terrorism and the

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federal budget deficit, two other issues Gallup has measured on a regular basis during Obama’s presidency.

In contrast, Obama’s ratings on international issues—including the two ongoing wars—have deteriorated this year. In the case of Afghanistan, the decline is due in part to a bump in his rating after he announced his new strategy for that war late last year.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents per 1,000 interviews, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 12, 2010 AMERICANS’ WELLBEING LOSES MOMENTUM IN JULY Life evaluation, overall wellbeing down compared with June, but still up from 2008 and 2009 Implications Less than a majority of Americans give Obama a positive review for the job he is doing as president overall, and the same applies to their opinions of how he is handling most of the issues he is having to contend with as president. In general, the public could rate the president poorly on issues for three major reasons. One is a perception that the president is not doing enough to address a problem facing the country, which some could argue applies to the Obama administration handling of immigration and the federal budget deficit. A second possibility is the president has taken obvious action to address a problem but Americans do not necessarily agree with the approach he has taken, which could apply to Obama and the healthcare policy. A third possibility is that Americans may support the president’s policies but are disappointed by the lack of progress on an issue, which could apply to Obama and Afghanistan and possibly the economy as well. Survey Methods Results are drawn from two surveys: A USA Today/Gallup poll consisting of telephone interviews conducted July 27-Aug. 1, 2010, with a random sample of 1,208 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. A Gallup poll consisting of telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. 272

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by Elizabeth Mendes Fewer Americans rated their lives positively in July than did so in any other month so far in 2010, resulting in the Gallup-Healthways Life Evaluation Index score dropping to 49.6, after reaching a record high of 50.8 in June.

Despite the recent decline, the July Life Evaluation Index score remains higher than the 46.7 found in the same month a year ago and the 40.6 found in July 2008. The findings suggest Americans are still feeling better about their lives now than they were during the depths of the recession. The Life Evaluation Index, part of the Gallup-Healthways WellBeing Index, classifies Americans as either “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering,” according to how they rate their current and future lives on a ladder scale based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale. The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated by subtracting the percentage of thriving Americans from the percentage of suffering Americans. The Gallup-Healthways overall Well-Being Index score for the nation also dropped slightly from 67.3 in June to 67.1 in July. This

is the second month in a row that the score decreased, following three consecutive months of gains. The Well-Being Index score reached an all-time high of 67.4 in May of this year. Gallup and Healthways began tracking the Well-Being Index, which is composed of six subindexes including life evaluation, in January 2008. In addition to life evaluation, each of the wellbeing sub-index scores declined in July, with the exception of the Physical Health and Healthy Behavior indexes. Both indexes’ scores typically trend up in the spring and summer as a result of seasonal factors, including better eating, increased physical activity, and far fewer incidences of colds and flu.

and future lives on a scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where “0” is the worst possible life and “10” is the best possible life. Those who rate today a “7” or higher and the future an “8” or higher are considered to be “thriving.” Those who rate today and the future a “4” or lower on the scale are considered to be “suffering.” The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated as the percentage of thriving Americans minus the percentage of suffering Americans. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 12, 2010 U.S. APPROVAL OF LABOR UNIONS REMAINS NEAR RECORD LOW More Americans want unions to have less influence than more by Jeffrey M. Jones

Overall, all of the sub-indexes’ scores are higher when compared with the scores for the same period one and two years ago, with the exception of the Work Environment Index. Americans’ perceptions of their work environment started to steadily worsen in November 2008, with the Work Environment Index score dropping below 50 for the first time in January 2009. Since then, scores for the index have for the most part hovered below 50, making Work Environment Index scores the only scores that have yet to recover to pre-economic crisis levels.

A slim majority of 52% of Americans say they approve of labor unions, the second lowest approval rating in Gallup’s 70-year history of this trend, behind only last year’s 48%.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index survey July 1-31, 2010, with a random sample of 30,277 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. The Life Evaluation Index is based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks respondents to evaluate their present

The update of one of Gallup’s longest standing trend questions is based on results of Gallup’s annual Work and Education poll, conducted Aug. 5-8. Gallup first asked Americans to evaluate labor unions in 1936, at which time 72% approved. The all-time high of 75% approval came in 1953 and 1957 surveys. Support for unions declined in the late 1960s and early 1970s, but mostly hovered around the 60% mark until last year, when it dropped below the majority level for the first time. In the poll, 10% of Americans identify themselves as union members, and an additional 6% say another member of their household belongs to a union. Seventy-two percent of Americans who are union members or live in a union household approve of unions, compared with 48% of those in non-union households. Union approval varies widely by political party affiliation—it is 71% among Democrats compared with 34% of Republicans and 49% among independents. All three party groups expressed their lowest approval of unions last year and, although views improved slightly, they remain less positive than before. The Future of Union Power Gallup finds significantly more Americans saying they want labor unions to have less (40%) rather than more (29%) influence than they

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benefit or are benefitting from the policies of the Obama administration, including recent legislation providing aid to states that will preserve thousands of education and public sector jobs. Survey Methods

have today. Twenty-seven percent say their influence should stay about the same. Prior to last year, Americans were about equally divided in saying they wanted labor unions to have more versus less influence, or showed a tendency toward wanting unions to have more influence.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Regardless of their preference, Americans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin predict union influence will decline in the future. The poll finds 46% of Americans saying unions will become weaker in the future compared with 25% who say stronger. This general pattern has held each time Gallup has asked the question since 1999. August 13, 2010 ECONOMY REMAINS TOP CONCERN AS NOV. ELECTIONS DRAW NEARER Two-thirds of Americans mention aspects of the economy as the nation’s top problem by Frank Newport

Implications Labor unions are less popular now in the United States than they have been for most of the last 70 years. One reason for this could be the economic downturn. With many Americans out of work and struggling to find work, organized labor groups’ missions may not seem appropriate or even fair as they might have when jobs are more plentiful. There is some precedence for an economic-related downturn in union approval, as Gallup found a mild drop in union approval during the late 1970s and early 1980s when the U.S. economy was in poor shape. The more negative appraisal of unions the last two years could be due to the belief from union opponents that unions are likely to

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Americans of all political persuasions say the economy and jobs are the most important problems facing the country today. These concerns easily outpace all others, thus providing politicians seeking office in this fall’s midterm elections with clear marching orders from their constituents: Fix the economy. Economic concerns have dominated Americans’ views of the nation’s top problems since early 2008. In the Aug. 5-8 Gallup poll, 65% of Americans mention some aspect of the economy as the top problem facing the country, down only slightly from the beginning of this year. Other problems 5% or more of Americans mention include dissatisfaction with government and Congress, healthcare, immigration issues, and the decline in ethics/morals/family values. Immigration—in the news recently as a result of Arizona’s controversial new immigration law—is tied for fourth on the list of problems. Other specific issues receiving significant news coverage recently do not appear to be highly top of mind with Americans. These include gay marriage, the war in Afghanistan, and global

concerns. Immigration issues are on Republicans’ and independents’ top five list, but not on Democrats’. On the other hand, Democrats’ list of top concerns includes healthcare and fear of war, neither of which appear among the top five of the other two partisan groups. Survey Methods

warming—none of which more than 2% of Americans specifically mention as the nation’s top problem. Americans are much less likely to mention healthcare as the nation’s top problem than they were likely to in February, in the middle of debate over President Obama’s new healthcare reform law. Additionally, 3% of Americans mention natural disaster recovery today compared with 18% in June, when the Gulf of Mexico oil spill dominated the news. The current political environment is substantially different than prior to the last midterm election four years ago. The most frequently mentioned concern in August 2006 was Iraq (which 26% of Americans then considered the nation’s most important problem), followed by 15% who named the price of gas and fuel, and 10% who mentioned terrorism. Four years ago, 8% of Americans named the economy as the top problem, while 4% mentioned jobs.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Economy and Jobs Dominate Across Political Groups There are many political and ideological differences in the way Republicans, independents, and Democrats view the world in today’s highly partisan political environment, but there is general agreement across these three groups that the economy and jobs are the nation’s top problems. August 13, 2010 IN U.S., CONFIDENCE IN NEWSPAPERS, TV NEWS REMAINS A RARITY No more than 25% say they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in either by Lymari Morales

Republican politicians have been highly critical of the role of the federal government in American society, and 16% of rank-andfile Republicans list dissatisfaction with government as their top concern, putting it third on their list behind the economy and jobs. These concerns are also on independents’ and Democrats’ lists of top five

Americans continue to express near-record-low confidence in newspapers and television news—with no more than 25% of Americans saying they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in either. These views have hardly budged since falling more than 10 percentage points from 2003-2007. The findings are from Gallup’s annual Confidence in Institutions survey, which found the military faring best and Congress faring worst of 16 institutions tested. Americans’ confidence in newspapers and television news is on par with Americans’ lackluster confidence in banks and slightly better than their dismal rating of Health Management Organizations and big business. The decline in trust since 2003 is also evident in a 2009 Gallup poll that asked about confidence and trust in the “mass media” more

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Americans’ low trust in newspapers and television news presents a critical barrier to success. The Pew report asserts that 80% of new media links are to legacy newspapers and broadcast networks, making clear that traditional news sources remain the backbone of the media. But so long as roughly three in four Americans remain distrustful, it will be difficult to attract the large and loyal audiences necessary to boost revenues. Survey Methods

broadly. While perceptions of media bias present a viable hypothesis, Americans have not over the same period grown any more likely to say the news media are too conservative or too liberal. No matter the cause, it is clear the media as a whole are not gaining new fans as they struggle to serve and compete with growing demand for online news, social media, and mobile platforms. The Pew Project for Excellence in Journalism’s annual report on the State of the News Media, released in March, found for a third straight year, only digital and cable news sources growing in popularity, while network news, local news, and newspaper audiences shrink. These findings align with a similar 2008 Gallup poll that found cable and Internet news sources growing in popularity while all others held steady or declined. While it is unclear how much respondents factored in the online and cable offshoots of “newspapers” and “television news” when assessing their confidence in these institutions, their responses do not provide much encouragement for the media more broadly. Confidence is hard to find, even among Democrats and liberals, who have historically been the most trusting of the news media. While 18- to 29-year-olds express more trust in newspapers than most older Americans, Gallup polling has found they read national newspapers the least. Younger Americans also expressed more confidence than older Americans in several other institutions tested, including Congress, the medical system, and the criminal justice system, suggesting younger Americans are more confident in institutions in general.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 13, 2010 WELLBEING LOWER AMONG WORKERS WITH LONG COMMUTES Back pain, fatigue, worry all increase with time spent commuting by Steve Crabtree

Implications With nearly all news organizations struggling to keep up with the upto-the-minute news cycle and to remain profitable in the process, 276

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American workers with lengthy commutes are more likely to report a range of adverse physical and emotional conditions, leading to lower overall scores on the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. American employees report an average commute from home to work of 23 minutes, with average times higher in most of the country’s largest metro areas. About one in five U.S. workers (19%) spends more than half an hour getting to work, and 3% commute for more than an hour each way. Those who do report long commutes are more likely to complain of several health problems. For example, one in three employees with a commute of more than 90 minutes say they have had a neck or back condition that has caused recurrent pain in the past 12 months; among those with commutes of 10 minutes or less, the figure drops to roughly one in four. Those with long commutes are also more likely to say they have at some point been diagnosed with high cholesterol

The results imply that many employers may need to reevaluate their options for helping workers manage those effects, particularly in light of the costs associated with low wellbeing. Those who are hesitant to allow telecommuting, for example, may need to consider balancing the physical and emotional toll of long commutes against the social benefits of having employees together in the workplace. Employers should also recognize that it’s not just the time lost in commuting that may have adverse effects. Particularly in tough economic times, commuting expenses—whether they go to gas and parking or mass transit fees—may contribute to elevated worry levels. Helping defray those costs may help employees make the long trek to and from work with greater peace of mind. and are more likely to have a Body Mass Index that classifies them as obese.

The psychological toll of long commutes may be as detrimental to individuals’ wellbeing as the physical effects. Behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Alan Krueger in 2004 tracked the emotional states of employed women in Texas during their daily activities. They found that respondents’ ratio of positive to negative emotions was particularly low during time spent commuting. Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index results also point to a connection between commuting and emotional wellbeing. Among employees who take more than 90 minutes getting from home to work, 40% experienced worry for much of the previous day—significantly higher than the 28% among those with negligible commutes of 10 minutes or less. Conversely, workers with extremely long commutes were less likely to have experienced enjoyment for much of the previous day or to say they felt well-rested that day.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 173,581 employed national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 1, 2009-June 30, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 16, 2010 U.S. WORKERS STILL ON ELEVATED ALERT FOR POTENTIAL JOB, PAY CUTS Roughly one in four is worried they could lose their job, see pay or hour reductions by Lydia Saad U.S. workers’ worries about job and pay cutbacks have eased slightly since 2009, but they continue to be high compared with prior years. In particular, roughly one in four Americans employed full or part time is currently worried about being laid off in the near future. That is nearly double the rate seen in August 2008, just prior to the start of the Wall Street financial crisis that sent consumer confidence and perceptions of the job market tumbling.

Implications Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data add to the growing body of evidence that long commutes have negative effects on workers’ wellbeing. These effects are present among full-time and part-time workers, and they hold up after controlling for respondents’ age, education, and income levels.

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The same pattern is seen with respect to having one’s hours cut back and wages reduced. Workers are less concerned this year than last year, but still more than at other times since Gallup first measured this in 1997.

Bottom Line U.S. workers’ sense of job and income security was seriously rattled in 2009 following the financial crisis that kicked off in September 2009. While fear of losing one’s job and seeing benefits or pay reduced is less prevalent now than it was a year ago at this time, these perceptions have not recovered to pre-crisis levels and may partly explain why consumer spending also continues to lag behind spending in early 2008. Survey Methods

Fear of having one’s benefits reduced also dipped this year after spiking to 46% in 2009. However, it remains roughly 10 percentage points higher than the levels seen from 2003 through 2008. By contrast, relatively few workers are worried their company is likely to move jobs overseas, a concern that has shown little variation since Gallup first measured it in 2003.

The latest findings are from Gallup’s annual Work and Education survey, conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010. Of the five potential cutbacks measured, workers are most likely to believe they will experience reduced benefits—a finding that crosses all income levels, although it is particularly high among middle-income earners. Fear of having one’s hours cut back is much more prevalent among workers in low- and middle-income households—many of whom are likely paid on an hourly basis—than among those living in households with $100,000 or more in annual income. Fear of having one’s wages reduced is even across all income levels.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 499 adults employed full or part time, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 18, 2010 AMERICANS DIVIDED ABOUT FUTURE GULF DRILLING Nearly even split found on lifting the drilling moratorium and on BP’s future in the area by Lydia Saad With the BP oil well in the Gulf of Mexico seemingly capped, Americans are split down the middle over whether the federal government should maintain a moratorium on most offshore oil drilling in the Gulf, or lift it and allow drilling to resume before November. Should BP be allowed to drill again in the same area? 49% 46%

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YES should be allowed NO should not be

The Obama administration first issued the six-month moratorium in May to allow for the implementation of new deepwater drilling safety measures. Opponents of the moratorium argue that it could drive oil rigs overseas and do permanent damage to Louisiana’s oil industry. More than half of men (54%) favor lifting the moratorium, compared with 41% of women—a significant gender gap consistent with women’s generally more pro-environmental views. Also, two-thirds of Republicans (66%) would lift the ban, while nearly as many Democrats are opposed to doing so (64%). Americans as a whole are also divided over whether BP should be allowed to drill for oil in the same area again in the future. The gender and partisan differences on this question are similar to those seen for lifting the Gulf oil drilling moratorium. BP’s Ratings Improved, but Still Negative Despite Americans’ divergent views about future oil drilling in the Gulf, they share a common reaction to BP’s handling of the 2010 oil spill—one that is overwhelmingly negative. While more Americans approve of BP’s handling of the situation than did so in June, 64% still disapprove.

Over the same two-month period, there has been no change in Americans’ reactions to the way President Barack Obama has handled the situation. Close to half disapprove (48%), while slightly fewer (44%) approve. Few Americans Celebrating the Outcome

In early August, just as BP was stopping the oil spill with a “static kill” procedure and successfully sealing the well with cement, the Obama administration issued reports saying that most of the leaked oil in the Gulf has been captured, dispersed, or evaporated. However, this upbeat assessment has recently been challenged by teams of independent scientists. Americans’ own views of the damage are more negative than upbeat. Forty-four percent say the extent of damage caused by the oil spill is worse than they thought it would be, twice the number who say it is not as bad as they expected. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 14-15, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,074 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 554 national adults in Form C, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 520 national adults in Form D, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. The questions reported here were asked of a random half-sample of respondents for two nights on the Gallup Daily tracking survey. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gulf Oil Spill Damage How does the damage compare to what you thought it would be? 44% Worse 29% About the same 22% Not as bad

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August 18, 2010 DEPLOYMENT TAKING GREATEST TOLL ON YOUNG SERVICE MEMBERS Young who have served in foreign war twice as likely to report chronic pain as never-deployed by Dan Witters Active duty U.S. military personnel who have been deployed to a foreign war are more likely to have been diagnosed with depression at some point in their lives than those service members who have never deployed, with the largest percentage of diagnoses among those aged 18 to 29.

Among those 18- to 29-year-olds who’ve been deployed, 86% say they’ve served in either Iraq or Afghanistan, as have 80% of 30to 64-year-olds. Still, the younger service members are far more likely than the older military personnel and more than twice as likely as their non-deployed counterparts to say they have ever been diagnosed with depression. These findings are based on 1,432 interviews with active duty military personnel conducted Aug. 1, 2009 through June 15, 2010 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Among these respondents, all of whom were living in the U.S. at the time, 1,004 reported having been previously deployed to a foreign war, 818 of which were deployed to either Iraq or Afghanistan. Daily Physical Pain Doubles for Young, Previously Deployed Active duty military personnel who have been previously deployed are also more likely to report experiencing physical pain daily than those active duty service members who have never deployed. Again, the difference is more pronounced in the younger age group, with young military personnel who have returned from deployment showing a rate of chronic pain that is double the rate of their counterparts who have never deployed.

Even though they have experienced the difficulties of serving in a foreign war, previously deployed American military personnel under the age of 30 are still less likely to report ever having been diagnosed with depression than U.S. workers as a whole (9.6% vs. 11.9%). 280

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Much of this difference, however, can be accounted for as a result of the disproportionately high percentage of male service members when compared with U.S. workers generally, as women are about 70% more likely to be diagnosed with depression than are men. Still, the findings suggest that deployment to war can take an emotional and physical toll, especially for those under 30, as active duty personnel return state-side hampered with daily physical pain and depression diagnoses that are sharply higher than their nondeployed counterparts. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,432 currently active U.S. military personnel, including 1,004 that have been deployed to a foreign war and 428 that have never been deployed. Interviews were conducted with those aged 18 and older from Aug. 1, 2009-June 15, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is +3.0, +3.7, and +5.6 percentage points, respectively. Error ranges will climb higher for individual age groups within each category.

Questions used to discern military involvement and deployment to foreign wars include: “Have you, or has any member of your household, ever served in the U.S. military?” “Are you currently on active duty, or not?” “Which war or wars, if any, have you been deployed to?” Questions used to discern the clinical diagnosis of depression and daily physical pain include: “Have you ever been told by a physician or nurse that you have depression?” “Did you experience physical pain a lot of the day yesterday?” Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 18, 2010 MORE DISAPPROVE THAN APPROVE OF OBAMA MOSQUE REMARKS Four in 10 do not have an opinion by Jeffrey M. Jones More Americans disapprove than approve of President Barack Obama’s recent comments concerning the planned construction of a mosque near where the Sept. 11 terror attacks occurred in New York City, but 4 in 10 do not have an opinion on the matter. The vast majority of those with an opinion hold it strongly.

The results are based on a one-night Gallup reaction poll conducted Tuesday, Aug. 17. Four days earlier, President Obama, at a White House dinner celebrating the beginning of the Ramadan holiday, remarked that those planning to build a Muslim center and mosque two blocks from the site of the 9/11 terror attacks in New York City had a legal right to do so. Obama later attempted to clarify that those comments were meant to endorse only the legality of building the mosque at that location, not the wisdom of doing so. Opponents of the project believe placing an Islamic center or mosque close to ground zero is insensitive to the victims of the terror attacks and their families. Two in three Americans say they are paying a great deal (34%) or fair amount (32%) of attention to the issue, suggesting Obama’s remarks may be playing a part in the recent dip in his approval rating. The latest Gallup Daily three-day rolling average, based on Aug. 15-17 polling, shows Obama with a 41% approval rating, the lowest of his presidency. Republicans (44%) are more likely than Democrats (31%) or independents (29%) to be paying a great deal of attention to the story about the planned ground zero mosque. Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove of Obama’s remarks on the matter, including 63% who do so strongly. Democrats generally approve of Obama’s remarks, while independents tilt toward disapproval, but close to half of each group does not have an opinion (compared with 26% of Republicans). Together, the data show that those who generally support Obama or are perhaps more neutral toward him are not highly engaged in the controversy over his remarks about the planned New York City mosque. At the same time, his opponents are engaged, leading to the more negative than positive evaluation of his statements. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 17, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a

random sample of 1,009 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.

August 19, 2010 ONE IN THREE U.S. PARENTS SEE CHILD’S SCHOOL MAKING MAJOR CUTS Vast majority expect spending cuts to hurt the quality of their child’s education by Lymari Morales With many state and local governments facing crisis-level budget cutbacks, Gallup finds 32% of parents saying their child’s school is having financial difficulties and having to make major spending cuts, and 59% saying their child’s school has been able to avoid making such cuts. Of those who see their child’s school making major cuts, the vast majority believe the cuts will harm their child’s education. The results are from a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, just before President Obama on Aug. 10 signed a $26 billion stimu-

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August 19, 2010 MORE WORKERS OK WITH THEIR PAY IN 2010 Majority now say they are paid about right, while 43% believe they are “underpaid” by Lydia Saad Fewer than half of U.S. workers today, 43%, believe they are underpaid for the work they do, down from 51% in 2008. The slight majority, 53%, now say they are paid the right amount.

lus package, which includes $10 billion to help public schools rehire teachers and take other steps to counter shrinking state budgets. While one might assume that wealthier communities are faring best in this regard, parents with annual household incomes above $75,000 are no less likely than those with lower incomes to say their child’s school is facing major cuts. Interestingly, however, there is a partisan divide among parents, with Republicans and those who lean Republican significantly more likely than Democrats or Democratic leaners to say their students’ schools are avoiding spending cuts. While other demographic factors may be in play, Republicans’ general aversion to federal government spending may also play a role in their responses. Overall, the data provide a benchmark for where schools go from here. While school districts are likely grateful for any extra money they receive, The New York Times reported Wednesday that many administrators are hesitant to rehire laid-off teachers or make other long-term moves with what they perceive to be a short-term cash influx. Thus, it remains to be seen whether the new stimulus money results in measurable changes that parents notice—both in the financial solvency of their schools and, most importantly, their own child’s education. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 218 parents with children in kindergarten through grade 12, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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These results, from Gallup’s Aug. 5-8 Work and Education poll, are based on interviews with adults aged 18 and older who are currently employed either full time or part time. U.S. workers’ heightened appreciation for their pay likely reflects today’s challenging job market. National unemployment has registered roughly 9.5% in recent months, significantly higher than the 6.1% jobless rate at the time of Gallup’s prior measure in August 2008. Gallup also finds roughly a quarter of workers worried that they could soon lose their job or see a pay reduction—nearly twice the August 2008 level. Separately, Gallup finds 31% of workers saying they are “completely satisfied” with the amount of money they earn. That matches the record-high level of satisfaction with pay Gallup recorded in 2006, and is slightly higher than the average 28% satisfaction seen on this measure over the past decade.

When those who are “somewhat satisfied” are factored in, a combined 74% of workers today are generally satisfied with what they earn, while 26% are dissatisfied. Bottom Line Shock waves from the global financial crisis that started with the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 are still reverberating

through public attitudes. Today’s workers continue to express heightened concern about being laid off or having their pay or benefits cut back, and only 10% say it’s a good time to find a quality job (compared with 20% before the crisis). These findings help explain why workers may now be happier to hang on to the jobs they have than they were only two years ago, without looking for greater financial rewards. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 499 adults employed full or part time, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 20, 2010 IN U.S., SLIM MAJORITY SAYS IRAQ WAR WILL BE JUDGED A FAILURE Most doubt that Iraqi forces can maintain order in Iraq by Jeffrey M. Jones More Americans believe history will judge the Iraq war as a failure (53%) rather than a success (42%). These views have varied little over the past few years even as Americans have become more positive in their assessments of how the war is going. To a large degree, Americans’ predictions on how history will judge the war mirror their basic support for the war—55% say the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, while 41% disagree. War opposition has eased only slightly in recent years from a high of 63% in April 2008. Despite their more negative than positive evaluations of the war effort, Americans think Iraq is better off now than it was before the war started. Sixty-four percent hold this view, though this is down from prior Gallup measurements.

These results are based on an Aug. 5-8 Gallup poll, conducted as the U.S. was in the process of transferring responsibility for combat operations to the Iraqi military. On Wednesday, the last U.S. combat troops left Iraq. About 50,000 U.S. troops remain to provide logistical support to the Iraqi forces. Americans are not optimistic that Iraqi security forces are up to their new task. By 61% to 34%, the public believes Iraqi security forces will be unable to limit insurgent attacks and generally maintain peace and security in Iraq. Nevertheless, Americans prefer that the U.S. stick to its timetable for withdrawing all troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. Fifty-three percent say U.S. withdrawal should proceed regardless of what is going on in Iraq at the time, while 43% think the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq beyond the deadline if Iraqi security forces cannot maintain order in Iraq. War Views Are Highly Partisan The war, one of the longest military conflicts in U.S. history, began under a Republican president and is being concluded under a Democratic one. As has been the case for much of the war’s history, there is a clear partisan divide among the public, with Republicans generally supportive of the war and Democrats generally opposed. Two areas on which there is some cross-party agreement are that Iraq is better off now than it was before the war (though only a slim majority of Democrats believe it is) and that Iraqi forces will be unable to maintain order in Iraq (Republicans are more pessimistic than Democrats on this count). Implications The transfer of combat operations to Iraqi forces marks a major milestone in the more than seven-year war in Iraq. The war proved more challenging for the United States than may have initially appeared to be the case after the U.S. toppled the Saddam Hussein regime in the spring of 2003. Americans’ opinions of the war began to sour as

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August 20, 2010 HEALTH SITUATION MAY PRESENT BARRIER FOR MANY JOB SEEKERS Twenty-two percent of Americans smoke and 45% say they are “very” or “somewhat” overweight by Elizabeth Mendes If you are looking for work and you either smoke or are overweight, you may face a tougher time getting hired. About one in four Americans say they would be “less likely” to hire a person if they found out that he or she smoked. Nearly one in five say the same about hiring an overweight person.

progress became less obvious and U.S. casualties rose. For most of the last five years, a majority has opposed it, even as the United States began to make strides after the surge of U.S. troops in 2007. For now, Americans believe history will be more harsh than kind in judging the war. Of course, the final chapters have not been written, as the U.S. will maintain a presence in the country for at least another year. The Iraqis’ ability to keep the country secure will likely also factor into historical evaluations of the war. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The large majority of Americans say a person’s smoking habits or weight would make no difference to them in a hiring situation. These results are based on the attitudes of all Americans, few of whom are actually in a position to make a hiring decision, so it is not clear to what extent hiring discrimination occurs based on smoking or weight. But at a time when jobs are scarce and employers are hesitant to hire, the sizable minority of Americans who say they personally would discriminate based on these health factors suggests general norms that could at some point trickle down to the actual hiring process. Even though companies face more pressure today to decrease their healthcare costs compared with the beginning of the decade, the percentage of Americans who say they would be less likely to hire a person based on these health factors is the same as when Gallup last asked the question in 2003. Over the same time period, the number of Americans who think secondhand smoke is “very harmful” has also remained essentially the same, with 55% saying so this year. Another 44% of Americans want a total ban on smoking in the workplace, unchanged from last year, but a figure that has increased significantly over the past two decades. In the same July 8-11 poll, 22% of Americans identified themselves as smokers and 45% say they are “very” or “somewhat” overweight. Bottom Line Despite some Americans’ stated bias against hiring a person who smokes or is overweight, the legality of them actually doing so is not so straightforward. Many states have laws that protect smokers’ rights, but some do not, and the federal anti-discrimination law contains no specific language regarding smoking. The legal viability of not hiring someone based on his or her weight is even more ambiguous. However, with employers becoming increasingly sensitive to individuals’ healthcare costs, applicant health habits may be even more pertinent in the future. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 8-11, 2010, with a random sample of 1,020 adults, aged

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18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Three automakers in 2009, General Motors and Chrysler, to prevent them from going under. U.S. automakers have had a stronger year in 2010, and GM is now planning to sell back much of its publicly held stock to private investors. The automobile industry now ranks in the middle of the list of 25 business industries and sectors rated Aug. 5-8 in Gallup’s annual Work and Education Poll. The computer and restaurant industries are rated most positively, while the oil and gas industry receives the worst ratings. In addition to the computer and restaurant industries, farming and agriculture, grocery, and the Internet get at least 50% positive ratings. Healthcare, banking, and the federal government join the oil and gas industry with majority negative ratings.

August 23, 2010 RECORD SURGE IN POSITIVE RATINGS OF AUTO INDUSTRY Computer industry rated most positively; oil and gas industry least positively by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ opinions of the automobile industry brightened considerably after reaching an all-time low last year, and now tilt more positive than negative for the first time in three years. The 15-point increase in the percentage rating the auto industry positively ties the largest one-year improvement in Gallup’s 10-year history of measuring public opinion on major U.S. business industries.

Despite the improvement, the image of the auto industry has merely recovered from the losses of the past two years, and is much less favorable than it was in 2001-2005, when positive ratings significantly outnumbered negative ones. The automobile industry’s image suffered as the three major U.S. automakers struggled during the economic downturn, with all three asking the federal government for assistance in November 2008. The federal government eventually bailed out two of the Big

Either the computer or the restaurant industry has been the most positively rated industry each year Gallup has conducted the poll (though in 2005 both industries tied for the top spot with grocery, and farming and agriculture). Oil and gas has been the least positively rated industry each year except 2002, when the legal field held that unwelcome distinction. The oil and gas industry has been the subject of negative news coverage this year as a result of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Still, the industry’s image is unchanged, perhaps because its ratings were so negative to begin with. The oil and gas industry’s image has been worse, including in 2006 and 2008, when gas prices were high. Bottom Line Americans’ opinions of major U.S. industries and sectors have varied over the years in reaction to news events affecting a particular sector. For example, the accounting industry’s image took a big hit in 2002 after several corporate accounting scandals, including Enron, came to light. Views of industries linked to energy production

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declined as gas prices rose in 2006, and the real estate industry’s ratings tanked as the subprime mortgage crisis intensified. Automobile and banking were the two industries most adversely affected by the recent recession, and Gallup documented significant decreases in the percentage of Americans viewing each positively. Positive views of the banking industry remain depressed, but the auto industry has regained much of the luster it lost over the past two years after an encouraging performance in the first half of 2010.

The July confidence numbers are the lowest of the year so far; thus, even with the slight uptick in early August, confidence remains below the levels seen during much of 2010 and below its depressed levels of a year ago. “Poor” Ratings of Economy Are Near 2010 High

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 508 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 24, 2010 U.S. ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE DOWN IN RECENT WEEKS More Americans rate the economy “poor” and say it is “getting worse” by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist After improving slightly earlier this month, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index declined over the past two weeks to its current -33, matching the average for all of July.

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Forty-eight percent of Americans rated current economic conditions as “poor” during the week ending Aug. 22—approaching the highest levels of the year. This is marginally worse than the early August reading, is in line with the full July average of 47%, and is marginally worse than at this time in 2009.

Expectations Deteriorate During recent weeks, slightly more consumers told Gallup they think economic conditions are “getting worse” than thought that was the case earlier this month. These expectations for the economy basically match the average for all of July and are worse than those consumers held at this time a year ago. Economic Confidence Worse Than a Year Ago Gallup’s economic confidence data show consumer confidence giving up its modest gains of late July and early August during recent weeks. These declines in consumer confidence are not surprising given the downturn on Wall Street, all the talk of an economic slowdown, and the growing fears of a double-dip recession. In turn, the decline in Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index suggests that Friday’s Consumer Sentiment report is likely to show a decline from its earlier estimate for August—but still exhibit a modest improvement compared with the average for all of July. As a

August 26, 2010 AMERICANS OPPOSE RENEWING U.S. COMBAT OPERATIONS IN IRAQ More Americans see U.S. as less safe, and Middle East as less stable, as a result of war by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are about twice as likely to oppose as they are to favor renewing U.S. combat operations in Iraq if Iraqi forces are unable to maintain security there. These views are shared by Democrats and independents, but a slight majority of Republicans disagree.

result, Friday’s report for the month may already be somewhat out of date even as it is released. Gallup’s underemployment measure suggests there has been little or no recent improvement in the job market, while Gallup’s consumer spending measure shows essentially no improvement from a year ago. The stagnation in these measures, along with the decline in consumer confidence, seems consistent with another weak backto-school season. Of course, the nation’s retailers can still hope that many consumers are simply delaying their purchases until the last minute because of the current weak economy, not deciding to forgo them altogether. Regardless, probably the most troubling aspect of the current economic confidence data is that they show no improvement from a year ago. In fact, Americans are slightly less optimistic about the future direction of the economy today than they were at this time in 2009. This is not good news for retailers or for incumbents facing reelection this November. Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup economic confidence results are based on random half-samples of approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Weekly results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

These results are based on an Aug. 21-22 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted in advance of the official transfer of combat operations in Iraq from the U.S. military to Iraqi forces. The last remaining U.S. combat forces actually left Iraq last week. The United States plans to keep a smaller force in the country through the end of 2011. A Gallup poll conducted earlier this month found Americans pessimistic that Iraqi forces would be able to limit insurgent attacks and maintain order in the country. That poll also found a majority of Americans in favor of sticking to the timetable for complete withdrawal from Iraq regardless of the situation there at the time. Taken together, the results of the two recent polls on Iraq suggest Americans have little appetite for a continuing major U.S. presence in Iraq even though they believe Iraqis will not be able to handle the situation themselves. These views exist even though Americans do not believe the war has met two of its stated objectives: making the U.S. safer from terrorism and stabilizing the political situation in the Middle East. On both counts, more Americans believe the situation is now worse rather than better, although substantial minorities believe there has been no change in either situation. Even Republicans, who tend to be most supportive of the war, are dubious the U.S. has achieved these goals.

Americans do, however, acknowledge that Iraqis are better off because of the war—52% say this, while 20% believe they are worse off and 21% say there has been no change.

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In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. The questions reported here were asked of a random half-sample of respondents for two nights on the Gallup Daily tracking survey.

August 26, 2010 AIRLINE INDUSTRY IMAGE GROUNDED IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY More Americans are “very negative” on airlines than they were a year or five years ago by Lymari Morales Americans’ general displeasure with the airline industry continues for a fourth straight year, with 41% viewing it negatively and 30% viewing it positively. The poll finds 60% of Americans saying the situation in Iraq was not worth going to war over, while 34% believe it was. In recent years, Gallup has also found a consistent majority of Americans saying the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq. Bottom Line Americans are eager to end their more than seven-year involvement in Iraq, even if that could leave Iraqis in charge of a situation they are not equipped to handle, and even if that means the United States has not met some of its stated objectives for going to war. Americans have been negatively disposed to the war for more than five years, and that has changed little even as they have become more optimistic about U.S. progress in the war since the surge of U.S. troops in 20072008. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 21-22, 2010, with a random sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

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The findings are from an Aug. 5-8 Gallup poll that asked Americans to rate 25 business and industry sectors. The airline industry’s net positive rating of -11 puts it toward the bottom of the pack. Americans have been lukewarm on the airline industry since Gallup began measuring opinions about major U.S. industries in 2001. Despite the security and financial challenges that followed the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, airlines managed a slightly more positive than negative image from 2003 to 2007, when Americans became more negative than positive. The sharp rise in negativity in 2008 likely stemmed from higher airfares put in place amid high gas prices and the worsening U.S. recession at the time. Airfares remain high on a relative basis, with reports this week that they are as much as 20% higher than they were a year ago, and are climbing. What’s more, the additional fees imposed by airlines have proven highly unpopular. As recently as January of this year, 76% of Americans who had flown at least twice in the past year said they were dissatisfied with the fees charged for checking baggage and rebooking flights. This was far more than were dissatisfied with the procedures for going through security, the price they paid for tickets, and airlines’ efforts to deal with delays and cancellations. In this climate, 14% of Americans say their views of the airline industry are “very negative,” more than said so a year ago, but less than the 23% who said so in 2008. Overall, Americans have become less neutral and more negative on the industry since 2005. The International Air Transport Association reported Wednesday that U.S. airlines are set to post $2.5 billion in profits in 2010, after having lost $9.9 billion in 2009. With overall demand up only

slightly, the projection suggests that airlines’ efforts to boost revenues are paying off in their own bottom lines. Still, the Gallup data indicate the additional cost of flying, amid depressed economic confidence and consumer spending, have likely helped keep Americans’ ratings of airline industries more negative than positive. Airlines should be mindful of these perceptions, and the balance between cost and quality of service, as they seek to re-enter positive territory, both financially and in Americans’ eyes. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. Industry rating results are based on a half sample of 508 adults, for which the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 26, 2010 ADULT SMOKING RANGES FROM 13% TO 31% ACROSS U.S. STATES Rates tend to be lower in states where cigarette taxes, education levels are higher by Lydia Saad Roughly one in five adult Americans smokes, according to GallupHealthways Well-Being Index data from 2009. At the state level, the percentage of adult smokers ranges from 13% in Utah to 31% in Kentucky and West Virginia.

There is a strong regional aspect to smoking. All 11 states where a quarter or more of the population smokes—the “well-above average” group—are in the South or Midwest. All but one of the 11 states (including the District of Columbia) where fewer than 20% of adults smoke—the “below average” and “well-below average” groups— are in the East or West, the exception being Minnesota. Utah and California have particularly low rates, at 13% and 16%, respectively. In seven states, between 23% and 24% of the adult residents smoke, making these “above average” in smoking rates, though not well-above average. The remaining 22 states fall close to the 21% national average smoking rate. These data are based on a question asking, “Do you smoke?” The 21% average for 2009 is similar to the 20% smoking rate Gallup found in its July 2009 Consumption Habits survey with a slightly different question asking, “Have you, yourself, smoked any cigarettes in the past week?” Both questions are based on national adults, aged 18 and older. Education Helps Explain State Differences Gallup research has shown that smokers generally have less formal education than nonsmokers, and this pattern is evident at the state level. States with the lowest levels of formal education—those where fewer than a quarter of adults have a college degree—tend to have above-average smoking rates. These include West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, among several other Southern states. Conversely, states with the highest average levels of formal education, such as Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia, tend to have average or below-average smoking rates. Beyond educational differences, state tobacco control policies also appear to be related to state smoking rates. Indeed, states have enacted many of these policies for the express purpose of preventing young people from starting to smoke, and encouraging current smokers to quit. State cigarette taxes currently average $1.34 nationwide, but range from 7 cents in South Carolina to $3.46 in Rhode Island. Gallup finds the smoking rate inversely related to the state cigarette tax, meaning that adults in states with high cigarette taxes are less likely to smoke than those in states with low cigarette taxes. This relationship is generally linear, except for the well-below average group of states for smokers—composed of California and Utah— which has an average state cigarette tax of 78 cents. While Utah’s large Mormon population, which eschews smoking for religious purposes, helps explain Utah’s 13% smoking rate, it is unclear from these data why the rate is nearly as low in California.

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In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Another way in which the states have attempted to reduce smoking is through restrictions on smoking in public places such as government buildings, schools, workplaces, restaurants, and hotels. States have broad latitude in this area, and as a result, there is a patchwork of laws nationally, ranging from relatively minor limits in some states to highly restrictive policies in others. The American Lung Association has summarized these with a grading system of the states from A to F, for what they call “Smokefree Air Challenge.” As with cigarette taxes, Gallup finds a fairly strong relationship between state smoking rates and the states’ Smokefree Air Challenge grades from the American Lung Association. States with smoking rates that are above average and well-above average receive an average grade of D for their enactment of laws that restrict smoking across various public venues. The average grade rises to a B for states with average smoking rates and to an A for those in the above-average categories.

Bottom Line The rate of adult smoking has been declining since the mid-’70s, but it has stalled at just above 20% in recent years despite the proliferation of anti-smoking policies. The variation in smoking rates seen across the states could help to pinpoint which factors could be most effective at helping to push the rate lower. Gallup data suggest that raising cigarette tax rates and enacting comprehensive public smoking bans could be effective. However, it is also possible that it is much easier to pass such taxes and laws in states where smoking rates are lower to begin with, and thus the causal relationship is not clear. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with 353,849 employed national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2-Dec. 30, 2009, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

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August 27, 2010 MUSLIMS GIVE OBAMA HIGHEST JOB APPROVAL; MORMONS, LOWEST Jews and those with no religious affiliation also give Obama above-average ratings by Frank Newport Muslim Americans continue to give President Barack Obama the highest job approval rating of any major religious group in the U.S., while Mormons give the president the lowest ratings.

The differences in Obama’s approval ratings across the religious groups included in this analysis have held fairly constant across time, even as Obama’s overall rating has fallen by 15 percentage points between the first half of 2009 and the first seven months of this year. American Muslims—in the news recently with the controversy over proposed plans to build an Islamic center and mosque near ground zero in New York City—have given Obama his highest ratings in all three time periods: 86% in the first half of 2009, 83% in the second half of 2009, and 78% so far this year. Mormons have given Obama his lowest ratings across time, dropping from 43% in the first half of 2009 to 24% this year. In addition to Muslims, Obama receives above-average ratings among Jews, those who identify with other non-Christian religious groups, and those with no formal religious identity. Obama gets lowerthan-average ratings among Protestants. Catholics have given Obama slightly higher-than-average ratings last year and so far this year. Obama has lost slightly more ground than average so far among Mormons, and has lost the least among Muslims. These findings are based on interviews with more than 275,000 adult Americans conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 21, 2009, through July 31, 2010. Protestants and other nonCatholic/unaffiliated Christians are by far the largest religious group in America, representing about 55% of the adult population, followed by Catholics, at roughly 22%. About 13% of Americans do not have a formal religious identity or are explicitly atheists or agnostics. Jews, Mormons, and Muslims each represent no more than 2% of U.S. adults interviewed in Gallup’s tracking.

Bottom Line President Obama’s job approval ratings have fallen significantly between his first six months in office and this year so far, and his ratings among major religious groups have fallen in rough lock step. The pattern that pertained when Obama first took office—high ratings among Muslims, those with no religious identity, those identifying with non-Christian religions, and Jews; and lower ratings among Protestants and Mormons—continues today. Although his standing has dropped among Americans in each of these groups, Obama has retained a little more strength among Muslims, the group giving him the highest ratings, and has lost a little more among Mormons, the group giving him the lowest ratings.

August 27, 2010 AMERICANS CONTINUE TO RATE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY NEGATIVELY Forty-eight percent rate it negatively, 26% positively by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans rate the real estate industry much more negatively than positively, the third year in a row Gallup has found a net-negative evaluation of this industry.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 21, 2009-July 31, 2010, with a combined random sample of 276,173 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. Interviews were conducted with 151,912 Protestants/Other Christians, 65,244 Catholics, 4,672 Mormons, 6,746 Jews, 909 Muslims, 5,996 who identify with other, non-Christian religions, and 33,273 with no religious identity/atheists/agnostics. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of error will vary for each individual religious group, depending on sample size. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Real estate industry ratings began to decline sharply in 2007 before bottoming out in 2008. Nearly all of the 25 industries included in Gallup’s annual ratings saw their images decline that year as the recession took hold, but the 18 percentage-point drop in real estate ratings was the largest. In fact, it is the largest one-year drop Gallup has measured for any industry in the 10-year history of this question. That drop coincided with the subprime mortgage crisis that led to sharp increases in foreclosures and sharp decreases in home values.

The image of the real estate industry recovered somewhat last year, but is essentially flat in the latest update, based on an Aug. 5-8 Gallup poll. Home sales picked up a bit in late 2009 and early 2010, thanks to the government’s first-time homebuyer tax-credit program. But since that program expired, sales have slowed considerably. The real estate industry’s ratings remain well below where they were from 2001-2006, when Americans viewed the industry on balance positively, during an era of continually rising housing prices. On a relative basis, the real estate industry ranks near the bottom of the list of 25 industries Gallup routinely tests. In fact, this year only the oil and gas industry receives a lower percentage of positive ratings (20%). However, a total of four industries (oil and gas, the federal government, banking, and healthcare) receive a greater proportion of negative ratings than does real estate.

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Bottom Line Though Americans’ views of the real estate industry have improved from their low point two years ago, they remain well below where they were when the housing market was booming. When Gallup has seen sharp one-year drops in the way Americans rate certain industries, they are usually in response to real-world events that affect the industry. In some cases, the industry’s image has recovered within a year, as with the accounting industry in 2003 and the grocery industry last year. However, some industries (such as banking) have seen sustained lower ratings, suggesting a more fundamental alteration in the way Americans view them. That appears to be the case with the real estate industry, and its ratings are likely to remain depressed as long as the housing market remains troubled. The real key for the real estate industry is whether Americans will revert to a more positive than negative evaluation of it once the housing market improves. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 508 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample of 1,000 includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 30, 2010 ON-THE-JOB STRESS IS U.S. WORKERS’ BIGGEST COMPLAINT Worker ratings largely unchanged in recent years by Lydia Saad The majority of U.S. workers are completely satisfied with several aspects of their work environment, including their relations with coworkers, the flexibility of their hours, and the amount of work required of them. Of 13 job characteristics rated, they are the least satisfied with their on-the-job stress, followed by their pay.

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No more than 32% of workers are dissatisfied with any of the job aspects rated in the Aug. 5-8 Gallup poll; however, the number completely satisfied does dwindle well below 50% for several. Aside from stress, these include the important material rewards that come from working: pay, company retirement plans, health insurance benefits, and one’s opportunity for promotion. Worker Satisfaction Higher Than Decade Ago Worker satisfaction ratings have not changed appreciably over the past year, or even since August 2007, a full year before the start of the global financial crisis. However, workers do appear to be more satisfied today than they were at the beginning of the decade, when Gallup launched the annual measure. This is seen in the trend for overall job satisfaction, in which 48% are now completely satisfied, similar to the 50% recorded last year, but higher than 39% to 43% readings in most years from 2001 through 2006.

Workers also appear to be more satisfied today than in 2001 with several specific aspects of their jobs. Ratings for physical safety at work, recognition for work accomplishments, the amount of work required, vacation time, and chances for promotion all show significant improvement since 2001. Over the same period, workers have become no more satisfied today with their job security, their companies’ retirement plans or health insurance benefits, or on-the-job stress.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 30, 2010 GOP TAKES UNPRECEDENTED 10-POINT LEAD ON GENERIC BALLOT Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting by Frank Newport Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress. Bottom Line Despite severe turbulence in the U.S. economy and labor market in recent years, working Americans’ satisfaction with their job conditions has changed little since 2007. The long-term comparison is more mixed. Workers are more satisfied today than they were in 2001 with the amount of work required of them, the recognition they receive, their chances for promotion, and pay, among others. Thus, either employers have become more generous in these areas, or employees—perhaps more grateful to have a job—have become easier to please. At the same time, there has been little or no improvement in worker satisfaction in three important areas: health insurance benefits, retirement plans, and job security. Stress has consistently ranked near the bottom in Gallup’s annual worker satisfaction ratings, trading off with pay for last place. The potentially good news offsetting this is that workers continue to be largely content with their bosses, and with their coworker relations. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of 499 adults employed full time or part time, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats—one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points. The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup’s history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

Large leads on the generic ballot are not unprecedented for Democrats. The widest generic ballot lead in Gallup’s history was

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32 points in the Democrats’ favor, measured in July 1974, just prior to Republican President Richard Nixon’s resignation over the Watergate scandal. This large margin illustrates Democrats’ historic dominance over Republicans in registered voters’ party identification in the decades since World War II. Democrats controlled the House of Representatives continually between 1955 and 1995, and routinely held generic ballot leads in the double digits during that period. Republicans Have 25-Point Lead on Enthusiasm Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be “very” enthusiastic about voting, and now hold—by one point—the largest such advantage of the year.

for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

August 31, 2010 U.S. CONSUMERS PULLING BACK ON SPENDING IN AUGUST Consumer spending of $61 per day is down from the prior week’s average of $66 Republicans usually turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections than do Democrats, and Gallup’s likely voter modeling in the final weeks of an election typically reflects a larger GOP advantage than is evident among registered voters. The wide enthusiasm gaps in the GOP’s favor so far this year certainly suggest that this scenario may well play itself out again this November.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Americans’ self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $61 per day during the week ending Aug. 29. So far, August and back-to-school 2010 spending trends appear no better than those of August 2009.

Bottom Line The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House. One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day. Survey Methods

Self-Reported Spending Suggests “New Normal” Continues

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking survey Aug. 23-29, 2010, with a random sample of 1,540 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish

Gallup’s consumer spending measure averaged $68 per day in July and $67 in June—up $6 on average from prior-year comparables, and at the upper end of the 2009 “new normal” monthly spending range of $59 to $67. The July results seem consistent with Monday’s report of a 0.4% increase in personal spending in July 2010. At this point, consumer spending in August is running below that of June and July, falling back to roughly the $65-per-day average of August 2009. This is consistent with perceptions of a continued weakening of the U.S. economy and tepid back-to-school sales.

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August 31, 2010 IN U.S., OBESITY PEAKS IN MIDDLE AGE About 4 in 10 middle-aged blacks obese, more than any other race/age group by Elizabeth Mendes Roughly 3 in 10 Americans aged 45 to 64 are obese, more than in any other age group, according to data from the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index.

It is also consistent with a recent downward trend in consumer confidence as reflected by Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index. Gallup’s index predicted the slight uptick in last week’s Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and suggests a similar upward nudge in Tuesday’s consumer confidence index report from the Conference Board. However, Gallup’s index already shows confidence continuing to decline late in August—falling below its average July levels. A disappointing back-to-school sales season, declining consumer confidence, and a weak job market suggest that the perceived weakening of the U.S. economy is the reality on Main Street. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “I’ve got your back” speech on Friday may have made Wall Street feel better for a day or so. However, it will likely take concrete, measurable action—not just the Fed’s announcement of its good intentions to help if necessary—to build Americans’ consumer confidence, stimulate consumer spending, and help small businesses increase their revenues and cash flow. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking with a random sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the weekly sample of national adults averaging 3,500 interviews, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Among Americans aged 18 to 29, 18.2% are obese. This shoots up 10 percentage points to 28.3% among 30- to 44-year-olds. Obesity then creeps slightly higher among middle-aged Americans to 30.8% before dropping off among seniors. According to Gallup-Healthways Daily tracking data collected between January-August 2010, an average of 26.7% of adult Americans are obese, based on their self-reported height and weight. This is on par with the 26.5% in 2009, but up significantly from 25.5% in 2008. Obesity Disproportionately High Among Black Americans of All Ages No matter their race, middle-aged Americans are consistently the most likely to be obese when compared with those in other age groups. Also, black and Hispanic Americans within every age group are more obese than Americans overall, while whites and Asians are below the national average. More broadly, black Americans aged 45 to 64 are the most likely of any of the racial and ethnic groups used in this analysis, at any age, to be obese, at 41%.

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Previous Gallup findings have confirmed that black Americans in general are among the most likely of all key demographic and socioeconomic groups to be obese. Middle-aged Americans rank among the subgroups with the highest levels of obesity in the country. Bottom Line While Gallup finds obesity rates on the rise across the United States, certain key groups bring up the high national average of 26.7%. Helping black, Hispanic, and middle-aged Americans reduce their weight is thus critical to meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s goal of lowering obesity prevalence to 15%. Only Asian Americans currently meet this goal. High obesity rates among black and Hispanic Americans are in part reflective of socioeconomic differences apparent within these groups. Access to healthy foods, a place to exercise, and increased education are all important targets for decreasing obesity levels among these groups.

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Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 218,256 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 1-Aug. 25, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the samples of 176,445 white, 13,995 black, and 13,307 Hispanic Americans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. For results based on the sample of 2,816 Asian Americans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The Economy Matters Most The Democrats’ advantage on the issue of the environment is likely not something the party can leverage to improve its 2010 electoral fortunes, as Americans rank it at the bottom of the list in terms of its importance to their vote. Rather, economic concerns are paramount, with a majority of Americans rating the economy, jobs, and federal spending (along with government corruption) as extremely important.

September 01, 2010 AMERICANS GIVE GOP EDGE ON MOST ELECTION ISSUES Greatest Republican advantages on terrorism, immigration, federal spending by Jeffrey M. Jones A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans saying the Republicans in Congress would do a better job than the Democrats in Congress of handling seven of nine key election issues. The parties are essentially tied on healthcare, with the environment being the lone Democratic strength. The Republican advantages on these economic matters range from a low of +5 on jobs to a high of +15 on federal spending. Terrorism— the issue on which Republicans have the greatest advantage over Democrats—is rated as very important by 47% of Americans, putting it in the middle of the list. Bottom Line

The Republicans’ advantage on most issues is an indication of the currently favorable political environment for the party. Of particular note is the parity between the two parties on healthcare, an issue on which Americans historically have viewed the Democrats as superior. A similar USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in October 2006, just prior to Democrats’ major gains in that fall’s elections, highlights the potential implications of these findings. That poll, which includes several issues measured in the current survey, found the Democrats leading on all eight issues tested at that time, including some usual Republican strengths like terrorism and moral values. With Republicans now having the advantage on most issues, the party may be poised to make major gains in congressional seats, just as the Democrats did in 2006. Indeed, Gallup tracking of registered voters’ preferences in the 2010 generic ballot for Congress continues to find the Republicans ahead of the Democrats, as it has for the past five weeks.

Republicans’ perceptual advantage on most key election issues reinforces the party’s advantageous positioning heading into the stretch run of the 2010 election campaign. It is not clear whether Americans give the Republicans the edge on these issues because they have confidence in the GOP to make progress in addressing the major problems facing the country, or whether the ratings have more to do with the public’s frustration with the incumbent Democratic Party’s performance to date. The Democrats’ hopes for improving their fortunes may hinge on convincing voters they have superior plans for jump-starting the economy, the issue of uppermost importance in Americans’ minds. That could be tough to do when, after nearly 20 months of Democratic leadership in Congress and the White House, Americans’ opinions of the economy remain negative and have become more pessimistic in recent weeks. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

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phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

and positions on the issues brought a political perspective to the event. Gallup Daily tracking data reviewed in this analysis confirm that religion, along with race, is a significant factor in defining Republicans, independents, and Democrats. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans are white, compared with 71% of independents and 62% of Democrats. The majority of white Republicans are highly religious, while the substantial majority of white Democrats are less religious. All in all, 47% of Republicans in the U.S. today can be classified as highly religious whites, compared with 24% of independents and 19% of Democrats. Religious distinctions in the American political landscape today are underscored when one examines the political spectrum by both party and ideology. The percentage of highly religious white Americans within each of the resulting political groups ranges from a high of 50% among conservative Republicans to 13% among liberal Democrats.

September 01, 2010 REPUBLICANS REMAIN DISPROPORTIONATELY WHITE AND RELIGIOUS Democrats are more racially and ethnically diverse, and less religious by Frank Newport About 9 out of 10 Republicans are non-Hispanic whites, and more than half of these are highly religious. That compares with 62% of the Democratic rank-and-file that is white and largely less religious, with blacks and Hispanics making up a much more substantial part of that party’s base. Of note is the substantial difference in the religious composition of conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans. White conservative Republicans are more likely to be highly religious than less religious, while white moderate/liberal Republicans are more frequently in the latter category. In similar but less dramatic fashion, both conservative and moderate/liberal white Democrats are more likely to be highly religious than are liberal white Democrats, although in all Democratic groups, less religious whites predominate over highly religious whites. Implications

These results are based on aggregated data from more than 220,000 Americans surveyed from early January through Aug. 15 of this year as part of Gallup Daily tracking. Whites classified as highly religious are those who say religion is important in their daily lives and who report attending religious services weekly or almost every week. Hispanics include everyone who identifies as Hispanic, regardless of race. The mixture of religion and politics in the United States came to the fore again this past weekend at Glenn Beck’s high-visibility “Restoring Honor” rally in Washington, D.C. Beck mentioned God and religion frequently in his remarks. The rally was billed as nonpolitical, but the presence of former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, Beck’s involvement with the politically oriented Tea Party movement, and Beck’s own avowedly conservative persona

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Americans who identify as Republicans in America today, particularly those who identify as conservative Republicans, are disproportionately likely to be highly religious whites, in contrast with both the population as a whole and the other political segments. Republicans are not monolithically white and religious, however; half are either less religious whites or people of other racial or ethnic groups. But conservative Republicans have the highest proportion of religious whites of any of the six major partisan/ideological groups— including almost four times as many on a proportionate basis as is the case among liberal Democrats—which highlights the significance of religion in today’s political landscape. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-Aug. 15, 2010, with a random sample of 222,743 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and

the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The analysis of party and ideology is based on a total sample of 113,533 adults, aged 18 and older; for this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 02, 2010 REPUBLICANS HOLD WIDE LEAD IN KEY VOTER TURNOUT MEASURE Republican advantage in “thought given to election” greatly exceeds that for past midterms by Lydia Saad

use closer to Election Day. The current gulf in thought between the parties mirrors the partisan gap in Gallup’s voter enthusiasm measure that is tracked weekly. Republicans’ current level of thought about the elections, from Gallup Daily tracking conducted Aug. 23-29, matches or exceeds that found in October/November of the last three midterm years. By contrast, Democrats are giving far less thought to the elections today than they did in the final weeks before the prior four midterms. As a result, Democrats are on par with independents in current attention levels—a sharp departure from recent years, when the Democrats exceeded independents on this measure. The large party gap in “thought” suggests the typical Republican turnout advantage could be larger than usual this year if that gap persists until Election Day. Attention normally spikes as elections approach, and this is likely to occur among Democrats. However, it is unclear whether the Republicans have reached the limit for how much attention they will pay to a midterm election, or whether their attention will rise to perhaps a historic level by November. How this plays out will determine Democrats’ ability to catch up to Republicans on this measure before Election Day, and will in turn determine the size of the Republican turnout advantage. Conservative Republicans on High Alert The extraordinary level of attention conservative Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) are paying to the election is much of the reason Republicans’ current attention dwarfs Democrats’. Sixty-three percent of conservative Republicans say they have given quite a lot of or some thought to the upcoming elections, roughly twice the proportion of moderate and liberal Republicans (34%), and liberal Democrats (32%). Conservative Republicans were much closer to moderates and liberals of both parties on this measure in October/November of prior midterms. Also, only in 1994 did Gallup find a higher percentage of conservative Republicans paying quite a lot of or some attention to the elections than are doing so today. But with two months to go before the 2010 midterms, conservatives will likely match or exceed that record by Election Day.

Two months before this year’s midterm congressional elections, Gallup finds 54% of Republicans, compared with 30% of Democrats, already saying they have given “quite a lot of” or “some” thought to the contests.

Bottom Line

This “thought” measure is an important variable in Gallup’s well-established classification of “likely voters,” which is put into

Gallup’s “thought given to the elections” indicator of voter turnout suggests that, if the midterm elections were held today, the Republicans would have a substantial advantage over the Democrats in turnout—largely because of the attentiveness of conservative Republicans. This would well exceed the typical turnout

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advantage Republicans enjoy in midterm elections, including 1994, when the GOP gained a historically large number of House seats. It’s a virtual certainty that voters’ attention to the election will increase in the coming months. If this increase is proportionate between Republicans and Democrats, then the Republicans will likely maintain a formidable turnout advantage. However, it’s also possible that Republicans have merely tuned in early to the elections, leaving less room for their attention to expand—and thus giving the Democrats an opportunity to narrow the gap by November. Survey Methods The latest results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Aug. 23-29, 2010, with a random sample of 7,075 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150-cell phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

also led on the generic ballot, by a slightly larger 51% to 41% margin, in Gallup Daily tracking the week of Aug. 23-29. The 44% of Republican voters who say they are voting more against the Democratic candidate exceeds the level of negative voting against the incumbent party that Gallup measured in the 1994 and 2006 elections, when party control shifted (from the Democrats to the Republicans after the 1994 elections and from the Republicans to the Democrats after the 2006 elections). In the fall of 1994, just prior to that year’s elections, 34% of Republican voters said they were voting against the Democratic candidate rather than for the Republican candidate. There was a slightly higher proportion of negative voting in 2006, when 38% of Democratic voters said they were casting a ballot against the Republican candidate.

More Democratic Voters Voting “for the Democrat”

September 03, 2010 ANTI-DEMOCRATIC SENTIMENT AIDS GOP LEAD IN 2010 VOTE Many Republican voters say they are voting “against the Democrat” by Jeffrey M. Jones The Republicans’ lead in the congressional generic ballot over the past month may be due as much to voters’ rejecting the Democrats as embracing the Republicans. Among voters backing Republican candidates, 44% say their preference is “more a vote against the Democratic candidate,” while 48% say it is “more a vote for the Republican candidate.” These results are based on the Aug. 27-30 USA Today/Gallup poll. Overall, the poll shows 49% of all registered voters preferring the Republican candidate in their district and 43% the Democratic candidate, using Gallup’s generic congressional ballot. Republicans

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On a comparative basis, there is much less negative voting among Democratic voters this year than among Republican voters. Sixtyone percent of Democratic voters say they are voting to support their preferred party, while 32% are voting Democratic to reject the Republican Party. These attitudes among Democrats are typical of what Gallup has found in past elections; the trailing/incumbent party’s supporters have been much less likely to engage in negative voting than the leading/opposition party’s supporters.

Specifically, there has been a maximum of 32% negative voting among the incumbent party’s supporters but a minimum of 34% negative voting among the opposition party’s supporters across the 1994, 2006, and 2010 elections. These differences in negative voting suggest that the opposition party was ahead in these elections because its natural base of supporters was supplemented with voters who were disaffected with the incumbent party’s performance. Meanwhile, the incumbent party’s voters mainly consist of the party’s core supporters, hence the lower degree of negative voting among this group.

March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Implications Gallup finds a higher proportion of voting against the incumbent party than in past midterm election cycles, with close to half of Republican voters saying their vote is based on opposition to the Democrats. This reflects frustration with the direction of the country under President Obama and the Democratic Congress—the poll finds 20% of Americans satisfied with the way thing are going in the country. Along the same lines, 35% of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who opposes President Obama, while a smaller 27% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports him. Thus, it would appear the outcome of the elections hinges on how voters evaluate the performance of President Obama and the Democratic Party. To the extent that Democrats can improve these evaluations, they may be able to reduce the proportion of negative voting against their party and reduce the share of the Republican vote as well. The Republicans may strive to give voters reasons to vote “for” them, but the examples of past midterm elections suggest that negative voting may be the pivotal factor.

September 03, 2010 BLACKS, YOUNG VOTERS NOT POISED FOR HIGH TURNOUT ON NOV. 2 Republicans—and conservative Republicans in particular— are already tuned in to midterms by Lydia Saad Minority and young voters made a significant mark on the 2008 presidential election with their high turnout; today, however, these groups appear to have reverted to previous levels of interest in voting in the context of midterm elections. Most notably, in contrast to 2008, when whites and blacks were about equally likely to say they were giving “quite a lot of” or “some” thought to the presidential election, whites are much more likely than blacks to be thinking about the 2010 elections: 42% vs. 25%, a gap exceeding those from recent midterm elections.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 928 registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 390 registered voters who would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 477 registered voters who would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress if the election were held today, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the

Gallup’s “thought given to the election” question is a key determinant of “likely voters” in Gallup’s multipart likely voter model. The full model will be implemented closer to Election Day; however, the “thought” question was asked as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Aug. 23-29, to get an early gauge on potential turnout among subgroups. Although public attention to elections is much higher in presidential than in midterm years, a comparison of the relative “thought” levels among various subgroups in 2008 versus today may be useful in determining whether the Democrats are on track to mobilize key elements of the coalition that helped them win the White House two years ago. These data suggest they are not. Young Adults’ Attention Is Low, Similar to Past Midterms The gap between young adults (aged 18 to 29) and older adults (aged 30+) in their election attention levels was relatively narrow in 2008—

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12 percentage points—but the 23-point difference today (42% vs. 19%) is similar to the average 26-point gap seen in October-November of prior midterms, from 1994 through 2006. Again, this suggests that the relatively higher turnout of young voters in 2008 may not be repeated in 2010.

Men and women have had similar turnout rates in recent elections, including in 2008—and this is reflected in the similar percentages giving quite a lot of or some thought to the elections each year. At this point in 2010, however, women are much less likely than men to be giving this level of thought to this year’s midterms, 31% vs. 45%.

Survey Methods The latest results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Aug. 23-29, 2010, with a random sample of 7,075 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 03, 2010 AMERICANS MOST LIKELY TO FAVOR GOP NEWCOMERS FOR CONGRESS Three in four believe influx of new members would improve Congress by Jeffrey M. Jones

Bottom Line Earlier this year, President Obama identified women, blacks, and young voters among the groups he highlighted as critical to a voter mobilization effort designed to help the Democrats hold their congressional majority. These groups made up a good portion of the “new voters” who propelled Obama to victory in 2008. However, Gallup data suggest they are not poised to provide the same kind of boost for Democratic candidates this fall. As a result, and because of the extraordinarily keen interest in the elections that conservative Republicans currently display, Republicans overall currently enjoy a 54% to 30% lead over Democrats in “thought given to the election.” If these numbers hold, the preservation of the Democratic majority in Congress would depend on the Democrats’ increasing their appeal to voters at large—recent Gallup polling shows the Democrats trailing the Republicans among registered voters— rather than counting on heightened turnout from their strongest backers. 302

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It appears that the best type of candidate to be this fall is a Republican challenger. Given a choice of four hypothetical candidates of differing party affiliations and experience, Americans are most likely to prefer “a Republican who has not served in Congress.” Those who would prefer a Democratic candidate opt for an incumbent over a newcomer. These results, based on an Aug. 27-30 USA Today/Gallup poll, underscore the advantageous political environment for Republicans and non-incumbents this midterm election season. Overall, a majority of Americans prefer a Republican candidate (regardless of experience) to a Democrat, 53% to 40%. And a majority also prefer a non-incumbent (regardless of party affiliation) to an incumbent, 54% to 39%. The fact that Americans who prefer a Republican candidate want one who is new to Congress suggests that these voters want both GOP control of Congress and the new perspectives that come from members with no prior Washington experience. Americans who favor Democratic candidates, on the other hand, apparently are more satisfied with the type of experienced representatives now in Congress. One would naturally expect Democrats to prefer Democratic candidates, and Republicans to prefer Republican candidates, and that is the case when looking at the data by party. But partisans’ pref-

Implications In a year when Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the nation and give relatively low ratings to the president and Congress, it is not politically beneficial to be either an incumbent or a member of the ruling party. That is reflected in Americans’ preference for a Republican newcomer over other types of candidates they may have a chance to vote for in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. It is also reflected in prior analysis of historical Gallup data showing greater seat turnover in Congress when the president and Congress are unpopular. Survey Methods

erences for incumbents versus challengers seem to be influenced by their knowledge that the Democrats currently have a majority in Congress, and thus, more Democrats will be defending House seats this fall. Democrats are more likely to prefer a Democrat who is in Congress to a Democrat who is not, and Republicans are more likely to prefer a Republican outside of Congress to one who is currently serving there. Independents also show a strong preference for Republican non-incumbents.

The data do not necessarily indicate how Americans would vote in the fall when presented with a choice of two specific candidates for Congress. This fall, voters will generally be asked to choose between one Republican and one Democratic candidate, one of whom may be an incumbent. When asked in the same poll whether they are more likely to vote for the Republican or the Democratic congressional candidate in their district if the elections were held today, 48% of Americans say the Republican and 43% the Democrat. The appeal of non-incumbents is apparent in another question in the poll that finds 75% of Americans saying Congress would be changed for the better if “most of the present members of Congress are replaced with new members.” Only 14% think that would make Congress worse. This is consistent with Gallup’s findings from earlier this year suggesting strong anti-incumbent sentiment. Americans across key demographic subgroups widely share the belief that Congress would be improved if most members were turned out of office. However, there is a significant gap by political party, with 89% of Republicans versus 63% of Democrats saying that replacing most members of Congress would be beneficial. Again, the difference likely stems from Democrats’ current status as the majority party in Congress.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Both questions reported here were based on a random half sample of approximately 500 national adults each. For results based on these samples of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 06, 2010 BUSINESS OWNERS STILL LEAD IN WELLBEING AMONG JOB TYPES Wellbeing improves among all occupational groups in 2010 compared with 2009 by Dan Witters Business owners once again lead all major occupational groups in overall wellbeing, according to the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, followed closely by professionals and managers/executives. Manufacturing and transportation workers have the lowest wellbeing scores. All occupational groups have seen a slight increase in wellbeing scores in 2010 compared with last year, as have Americans overall. While business owners remain the wellbeing leaders, their Well-Being Index score has improved the least so far in 2010, while

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workers and business owners are a distant second and third, respectively. For farmers/foresters in particular, the nature of their professions and general expectations regarding their occupational lifestyles likely play a significant role in such strong scores on these items. Those in sales are the least likely to report healthy eating habits, perhaps reflecting more challenging dietary choices when traveling for business or entertaining clients. And, possibly reflecting more sedentary work environments, clerical and manufacturing workers have the lowest scores in frequent exercise.

clerical, transportation, and manufacturing workers’ scores have improved the most. These findings are based on more than 120,000 interviews conducted from January-August 2010 with employed Americans at least 18 years of age.The Well-Being Index is composed of six subindexes that include 55 individual items that collectively measure Americans’ physical, emotional, and fiscal wellbeing. Several of these items provide a great deal of insight into the areas of wellbeing that are the most problematic or the most positive for people with lower or higher wellbeing job types. Business Owners Lead in Job Satisfaction, Using Strengths at Work Two key factors that contribute to business owners’ higher wellbeing score are related to how they view their workplaces. Business owners have the highest level of job satisfaction and the highest percentage who say they can use their strengths to do what they do best every day. Despite the inherent challenges of owning one’s own business, the opportunity to choose a vocation that is optimally aligned with the worker’s natural talent is likely a key factor in these results. Clerical workers have the lowest score on being able to use their strengths at work, while those in manufacturing have the lowest job satisfaction score.

Transportation Workers Lead in High-Risk Combination of Obesity, Smoking Transportation workers have the highest level of obesity and the thirdhighest smoking rate among the occupations measured, despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of having healthy eating and exercise habits. This combination arguably puts transportation workers at highest risk for developing chronic conditions such as diabetes and heart disease, and makes them more susceptible to cancer than workers in other occupations with lower incidences of obesity and smoking. Construction and installation workers—who have the highest smoking rates and fairly high obesity rates—are two other professions with heightened risk factors. Professionals, on the other hand, appear to be least at risk in this regard as they have the lowest smoking and obesity rates. For obesity and smoking, the patterns by occupation hold after controlling for income and race/ethnicity differences among occupations.

Farmers/Foresters Strongest in Healthy Eating, Exercise Outside of workplace-related issues, farmers/foresters lead all occupations in key healthy behaviors such as eating healthy and exercising for at least 30 minutes three or more days per week. Construction

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Bottom Line The multifaceted nature of wellbeing results in different strengths and problem areas for workers in different occupations. In some

cases, these positive and negative distinctions in areas such as job satisfaction or the ability to do what they do best every day may relate directly to the type of job they do. However, for some occupations, the apparent problems or strengths are in areas of wellbeing not directly related to their work function, such as smoking or healthy eating. For leaders in these industries and employers more generally, these results can provide useful insight for enhancing the overall wellbeing of the workers, which can ultimately lead to higher productivity and a more engaged workforce. Survey Methods Most results are based on more than 123,520 telephone interviews with national employed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 2, 2010-Aug. 19, 2010, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For the various occupation types discussed in this article, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is no more than ±2 percentage points, and in some cases (such as for professionals, those in the service industry, or managers), the error range is less than ±1 percentage point. Occupations are determined by the following open-ended question: “Could you tell me the general category of work you do in your primary job?” Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only and cell-phone mostly). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Job Market Perceptions Best in the Midwest, Worst in the West In every region of the country, more employees report that their companies are hiring than say they are letting people go. Job perceptions are best (+10) and most improved in the Midwest—up three percentage points from July, probably reflecting continuing relative strength in U.S. manufacturing. The South no longer leads in job conditions, as it has for most of 2010, having deteriorated slightly in July and August compared with June—possibly due to the job fallout associated with the Gulf oil spill. Job perceptions are worst in the West (+6)—although up one point from July—as this part of the nation continues to struggle with the fallout of the housing debacle.

High Levels of Federal Hiring Continue Gallup’s Job Creation Index shows that many more federal employees say the federal government (+14) is hiring, as opposed to letting people go. On the other hand, state (-20) and local (-15) government employees report just the reverse. This trend has persisted over several months.

September 07, 2010 U.S. JOB CREATION IMPROVES SLIGHTLY IN AUGUST Job market conditions are best in the Midwest and at the federal government by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Job Creation Index increased slightly to +9 in August from +7 in July and +8 in June. Current job market conditions are better than the -1 at this time a year ago but remain below the +19 found in the same month in 2008. Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day. National results for August are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 17,070 employees. For this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Regional results for August are based on interviews totaling more than 3,000 in each region. For each total regional sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish

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for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 08, 2010 JOB APPROVAL RATINGS LOW FOR BOTH PARTIES IN CONGRESS Only about one in three approve of job Republicans, Democrats in Congress are doing

being the majority party is not an obvious liability when it comes to these ratings. The Democrats’ typically higher ratings likely reflect that a larger number of Americans have historically identified as Demo crats than as Republicans. People who identify with a party tend to rate that party’s congressional delegation more positively, which is the case in the current poll.

The two parties’ similar job approval ratings are also notable because Republicans have recently been leading when voters are asked which party’s candidate they favor in this fall’s congressional elections (although Gallup’s latest generic ballot suggests this could be changing). In the same Aug. 27-30 USA Today/Gallup poll that included the congressional job approval questions, 49% of registered voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress in their local district, compared with 43% for the Democratic candidate. The parity in congressional Democrats’ and Republicans’ ratings underscores the conclusion that any Republican advantage in 2010 midterm voting is not primarily due to positive sentiments toward the GOP.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ frustration with Congress is directed at both sides of the aisle—with job approval ratings of 33% for the Democrats in Congress and 32% for the Republicans in Congress.

Bottom Line With both Republicans and Democrats in Congress suffering low approval ratings—in addition to the poor ratings for Congress as a whole, it is understandable why voters appear to be in a mood to oust incumbents this year. The relatively similar ratings of the congressional parties also suggest Americans may not be ready to embrace the Republicans’ way of doing things even if they vote them in as the majority party in Congress this fall. What is not clear, however, is why the ratings are so low. This could be due merely to frustration toward Congress in general this year. Alternatively, the ratings could be tied to more specific negative evaluations of the legislation the Democrats in Congress have passed, or the Republicans’ efforts to stop those bills from passing. Survey Methods

Both parties’ ratings are on the low end of what Gallup has measured since the question was first asked in 1999. The Democratic Party’s current job approval rating is just three points above its low of 30% measured in December 2007. The historical low rating for congressional Republicans is 25% in December 2008. Since early 2009, approval of the Democrats has generally trended downward, while the Republican approval rating has been mostly flat. This has resulted in a fairly notable situation in which the two parties in Congress currently receive similar ratings. Over time, Americans have tended to give the Democrats in Congress at least slightly more positive ratings than the Republicans in Congress. This has been the case when the Democrats were in the majority as well as when they were in the minority; thus,

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Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents

are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The same poll finds 54% of Americans dissatisfied with the quality of K-12 education in the United States today, the highest Gallup has recorded since August 2000.

September 08, 2010 AMERICANS SUPPORT FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT IN EDUCATION Democrats want more federal involvement in schools; Republicans want less by Lydia Saad Forty-three percent of U.S. adults want the federal government to be more involved in education than it is currently and 20% want it to keep the same level of involvement, while 35% want it less involved. Parents of school-aged children are particularly supportive of expanding the government’s role in education, with 56% favoring more involvement.

By contrast, American parents have remained largely satisfied with the quality of education their own children are receiving. The 80% currently saying they are either completely (35%) or somewhat (45%) satisfied is the most positive assessment Gallup has measured since the question was first asked in 1999. Bottom Line

Ten years ago, Americans were slightly more likely to favor greater government involvement in education over less involvement, 46% to 29%. The next year (in 2001), President George W. Bush and Sen. Ted Kennedy succeeded in passing the landmark No Child Left Behind education initiative through Congress. Among other things, this compelled states to meet extensive new testing and achievement standards in order to receive Title I federal education funding. The new findings, from Gallup’s Aug. 5-8 Work and Education poll, do not speak directly to public support for No Child Left Behind; however, they do suggest that Americans are, at a minimum, content with the current level of federal involvement in education. Still, views on this are highly partisan. Sixty percent of Republicans favor less federal involvement in education while 63% of Democrats want to see more. By 44% to 33%, independents tend to favor more involvement over less. Support for expanded federal government involvement in education is also higher among younger Americans than among older Americans.

President Obama has promised to rework federal education law in a way that gives more responsibility for meeting educational standards and improving outcomes back to state and local governments. However, the public may not immediately support this. A combined 63% of Americans want the federal government’s role in education either maintained at its current level or increased. The figure is 72% among parents of K-12 schoolchildren. The fact that a majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the status of education today may give added support to an expanded federal role. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 1,013 adults aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 218 parents with children in Kindergarten through Grade 12, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and

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850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 09, 2010 AMERICANS’ WELLBEING DECLINES FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH Lower scores in six key wellbeing areas contribute to decrease by Elizabeth Mendes The Well-Being Index score for the nation dropped slightly to 66.9 in August, declining for the third consecutive month after reaching a high of 67.4 in May.

Americans’ wellbeing score fell to a low of 63.3 in December 2008 amid a sinking economy and rising unemployment but recovered in the first half of 2009 and has remained higher in 2010. Gallup and Healthways began tracking wellbeing in the United States in January 2008. The Well-Being Index is composed of six sub-indexes that together measure Americans’ physical, emotional, and fiscal wellbeing. Lower scores across all six sub-indexes contribute to the lower August Well-Being Index score. The Life Evaluation Index score, one key measure of wellbeing, fell slightly again in August as it did in July, with fewer Americans rating their lives positively. The measure previously rose to a high of 50.8 in June. The Healthy Behavior Index score, which typically remains high throughout the spring and summer months due to seasonal factors, declined slightly and unexpectedly in August, as a result of fewer Americans reporting exercising frequently. American workers’ perceptions of their work environment also decreased last month, falling to an all-time low of 47.7. Despite the downward slides in August,

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each of the sub-indexes, excluding the Work Environment and Basic Access indexes, is now higher than or on par with where it was during the same month in 2009 and 2008. Americans’ access to basic necessities and attitudes toward their places of work are the only areas of wellbeing yet to recover to levels found prior to the economic crisis. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 31,261 adults in the United States, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 1-31, 2010, as a part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). The Life Evaluation Index is based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks respondents to evaluate their present and future lives on a scale with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where “0” is the worst possible life and “10” is the best possible life. Those who rate today a “7” or higher and the future an “8” or higher are considered to be “thriving.” Those who rate today and the future a “4” or lower on the scale are considered to be “suffering.” The overall Life Evaluation Index score is calculated as the percentage of thriving Americans minus the percentage of suffering Americans. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 10, 2010 AMERICANS OK ALLOWING TAX CUTS FOR WEALTHY TO EXPIRE One in three favor keeping tax cuts for all taxpayers by Jeffrey M. Jones A majority of Americans favor letting the tax cuts enacted during the Bush administration expire for the wealthy. While 37% support keeping the tax cuts for all Americans, 44% want them extended only for those making less than $250,000 and 15% think they should expire for all taxpayers. These results are based on an Aug. 27-30 USA Today/Gallup poll. The fate of the 2001 and 2003 federal income tax cuts that were

a centerpiece of Bush administration policy could be a significant campaign issue this fall. The tax cuts are set to expire after this year unless Congress votes to extend them. Congress plans to take up the issue next week when it returns to session. It appears as though Congress, like the American public, broadly agrees that the tax cuts should be extended for American families earning less than $250,000. The debate Congress will have this fall will be over whether to extend the tax cuts for wealthier Americans. Most Republicans and some Democrats in Congress are thought to favor extending them for wealthier Americans. President Obama said Wednesday that he is opposed to any plan that would extend the tax cuts for wealthier Americans. The president’s views on ending the tax cuts for wealthy Americans are in line with the views of the majority of rank-and-file Democrats. Meanwhile, the majority of Republicans want the tax cuts extended for all taxpayers, regardless of their income level. Independents’ views fall between those of the two groups, but a majority (56%) would seem to endorse the idea of not extending tax cuts for higher-income Americans, whether or not they want them extended for middle- and lower-income Americans.

adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 10, 2010 NINE YEARS AFTER 9/11, FEW SEE TERRORISM AS TOP U.S. PROBLEM One percent see it as the top problem today, down from 46% in 2001 by Frank Newport Nine years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, 1% of Americans mention terrorism as the most important problem facing the country, down from 46% just after the attacks.

Bottom Line With about one in three Americans, including a minority of independents and Democrats, in favor of extending the Bush-era tax cuts for all taxpayers, Democrats may not be putting themselves at great political risk by allowing the tax cuts to expire for wealthy Americans. In fact, the middle ground of extending tax cuts for low- and middle-income Americans but allowing them to expire for wealthy Americans—the Democrats’ most likely proposal—is the specific option the public prefers most. Gallup has typically found Americans unsympathetic to the argument that upper-income Americans are overtaxed. They generally believe upper-income Americans pay too little in taxes and favor higher taxes on wealthy Americans as a means to fund government programs, such as Social Security. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021

Just before the attacks, in a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 7-10, 2001, less than one-half of 1% of Americans mentioned terrorism as the nation’s most important problem. One month later, in October 2001, 46% named terrorism, the highest in Gallup’s history. From that point on, terrorism slowly faded as a response to this question. At the one-year anniversary of the attacks, in September 2002, 19% of Americans mentioned terrorism as the country’s top problem, already eclipsed by the economy at the top of the list. By the five-year anniversary of the attacks in September 2006, 11% of Americans mentioned terrorism. Terrorism continued to drop from

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that point, albeit with an uptick to 8% mentions in January of this year, reflecting the widespread news coverage of the “Christmas Day bomber” who allegedly attempted to detonate explosives on a Northwest Airlines plane headed for Detroit. As terrorism has faded, other concerns have risen in importance. Over the past nine years, Americans have most commonly mentioned the war in Iraq (from 2003 to early 2008) and the economy or jobs (from 2008 to the present) as the top problem facing the country. Despite the drop in top-of-mind mentions of terrorism, Americans still say it is an important issue when they are reminded of it. Gallup recently asked Americans to rate the importance of a number of issues to their vote in this year’s midterm elections, and 75% rated terrorism as an extremely or very important issue. Still, Americans rated economic issues such as the economy, jobs, and federal spending, as well as corruption in government and healthcare, even higher. They rated terrorism as more important than immigration, Afghanistan, and the environment. The Sept. 11 attacks took place during the Republican Bush administration, which soon thereafter launched a “war on terrorism.” Republicans have consistently been given more credit than Democrats for handling terrorism over the years since; in an August USA Today/Gallup poll, 55% of Americans say the Republicans in Congress are better able to handle the issue of terrorism, while 31% choose the Democrats.

phone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 13, 2010 AMONG RECENT BILLS, FINANCIAL REFORM A LONE PLUS FOR CONGRESS Most Americans oppose four other prominent legislative acts by Lydia Saad The financial reform bill President Obama signed into law in July is the most popular of five major pieces of legislation Congress has passed in the past two years—in fact, it is the only one tested in a recent USA Today/Gallup poll that a majority of Americans support.

Bottom Line The low top-of-mind salience of terrorism as the top problem facing the nation no doubt reflects the absence of major terrorist attacks on U.S. soil in the nine years since 2001, although there have been occasional news reports of thwarted attacks. It may also reflect the degree to which economic concerns are crowding out most other issues at this point in the nation’s history. The dramatic jump in perceptions of terrorism as the most important problem between September and October 2001, however, serves as a reminder of the potential for terrorism to reclaim its prominence as a concern should there be new terrorist incidents in the future. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. tele310

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Six in 10 Americans approve of the legislation to strengthen government regulation of the financial industry. By contrast, a majority disapprove of the 2009 economic stimulus package, the auto industry bailout, healthcare reform, and—most of all—the 2008 banking industry bailout. Financial reform does best due to a relatively high level of support from Republicans—42% approve of it—as well as majority support from independents. Independents join Republicans in mostly opposing the other four legislative initiatives tested. Democrats, on the other hand, approve of all five, although to varying degrees.

Of the five legislative acts, healthcare reform and the economic stimulus package are the most politically divisive. By contrast, finan-

cial regulatory reform, as well as aid to automakers and banks, sparks more similar reactions from Republicans and Democrats. Bottom Line Congress’ approval rating has been stalled at or below 20% for most of this year, down from 39% in March 2009—and recent Gallup polling finds Americans no happier with the Republicans than with the Democrats in Congress. While some of this may be due to unavoidable fallout from the prolonged economic downturn, it may also represent an accumulation of public discontent with the more prominent spending and policy programs Congress has made law. Wall Street regulatory reform stands alone as a major legislative accomplishment that congressional incumbents would be wise to tout as they campaign for re-election this fall. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 15, 2010 IN U.S., 13% MORE HAVE GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE SINCE RECESSION BEGAN Employer-based coverage down 9% since January 2008 by Elizabeth Mendes More than one-quarter of American adults reported having government health insurance (Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits) in August. This number is up 13% since Gallup and Healthways started tracking the measure in January 2008, a month after the recession began. At the same time, 9% fewer Americans are covered through their employer. Broadly speaking, government health coverage has been steadily rising since the start of the recession, while employer-based insur-

ance has been declining. Concomitantly, the number of uninsured Americans has gone up. The percentage of American adults who have government health insurance rose above the 23% range for the first time in August 2008 (24.0%), crept above 25% in May 2009, and then stayed mostly in the high 24% range. However, the figure has been higher than 25% for the past five consecutive months. The 45.5% of Americans with employer-based coverage ties June for the lowest on record and is lower than 47.9% in August 2009, 48.4% in August 2008, and 50% in January 2008. Comparing yearly averages reveals that Americans are slightly less likely so far in 2010 to have employer-based health insurance than they were in 2009 and significantly less likely than they were in 2008. The inverse is true for those with government coverage, with the percentage increasing each year. An average of 16.3% of Americans are uninsured so far in 2010, about the same as last year, but significantly more than in 2008.

Bottom Line One specific program is not driving the increase in the government’s healthcare rolls. Additional Gallup data show that the percentages of Americans with Medicare, Medicaid, and military/veterans’ coverage are each up so far in 2010 compared with past years, though the percentage with Medicare has risen slightly more than the other two programs. The new healthcare law passed in March of this year has yet to significantly affect these programs, but numerous provisions are getting underway, with others set to start Sept. 23 and more over the next several years. Increased access to Medicaid, banning discrimination against Americans with preexisting conditions, and the

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creation of health insurance exchanges, all of which are set to take effect in 2014, will have an impact on the state of healthcare coverage in the country. Gallup and Healthways track Americans’ healthcare coverage daily and will continue to monitor and report changes in the months and years ahead. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 1-31, 2010, with a random sample of 30,189 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 15, 2010 AMERICANS MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT EMERGING FROM RECESSION Majority see the economy staying the same or getting worse by Lymari Morales Most Americans see the U.S. economy as stuck in a recession and the majority don’t see or expect much improvement any time soon. A majority (54%) now expect the economy to be the same or worse in a year, up sharply from the 35% who expressed similar views a year ago. Americans are also now more likely to say the economy is staying the same or getting worse than to say it is getting better. The USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, echoes Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index, which, using slightly different questions, also shows greater pessimism about the economy now than a year ago. Americans’ negativity has increased sharply even as the economy has posted four consecutive quarters of—often meager—economic growth. The National Bureau of Economic Research has yet to declare an official end to the recession and Americans are following suit. The percentage of Americans who say the economy is in a recession, now 82%, has barely budged from a year ago. The Blue Chip Economic Indicators report, representing a group of U.S. economists, last week forecast that the U.S. economy

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would grow roughly 1.8% in the third quarter. Such a showing would barely beat the 1.6% growth from the second quarter, while falling well short of the 3.7% recorded during the first quarter. The sluggish and inconsistent growth, combined with continuing high unemployment and underemployment, helps explain why Americans are backpedaling on the relative optimism they expressed a year ago. At least three in four Americans across the political spectrum continue to say the economy is in a recession. Further, Republicans, independents, and Democrats alike are more pessimistic about the economy’s future direction than they were a year ago.

The findings no doubt illustrate the challenge for the Obama administration and others seeking to convince the American public that the billions of dollars spent to help revive the economy are generating results. With the midterm congressional elections approaching, the burden of proof falls on both President Barack Obama and Congress to show their work on this issue has not been in vain. Americans continue to see the economy as the most important problem facing the country as well as the most important issue to their vote—and it appears fewer this year than last are happy with what they see. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample

(73%). By contrast, relatively few Democrats, 19%, blame Obama. These patterns are consistent with Gallup’s findings on the same question in April.

includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Bottom Line

September 16, 2010 BUSH STILL TAKES BRUNT OF BLAME FOR ECONOMY VS. OBAMA Obama sees more blame now than a year ago, but 51% assign him little to no blame by Lydia Saad Nearly two years into his presidency, 51% of Americans say President Barack Obama bears little to no blame for U.S. economic problems, while 48% assign him a great deal or moderate amount of blame. More Americans now blame Obama than did so a year ago, but a substantially higher percentage, 71%, blame former President George W. Bush. More specifically, the Aug. 27-30 USA Today/Gallup poll finds 24% of Americans blaming Obama a great deal for the current economic problems, 24% a moderate amount, 25% not much, and 26% not at all. By contrast, 37% blame Bush a great deal, compared with 10% assigning him no blame. Bush fares poorly on this measure partly because a relatively high proportion of Republicans—48%—blame him a great deal or moderate amount, as do most Democrats (89%) and independents

Americans are far from charitable when it comes to their evaluations of Obama’s performance on the economy. Recent Gallup polling found 38% approving of the job he is doing in this arena—among his worst job scores on the nation’s top issues. However, that still exceeds Bush’s final approval rating on the economy of 27%, measured in February 2008. That was prior to the Wall Street financial crisis that rocked both the economy and consumer confidence later in the year, so Bush’s rating likely fell even further by the time he left office. Obama’s overall job approval rating was 46% at the time of his latest economic rating, in early August, and continues to hover in the mid- to high 40s in Gallup Daily tracking. The gap between his approval on the economy and his overall approval may be partly explained by Americans’ tendency to believe that the enduring economic problems are at least not of his own making. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 16, 2010 MAJORITY THINKS GOP HAS MOVED RIGHT SINCE OBAMA TOOK OFFICE Most say it’s for reasons other than the Tea Party’s influence by Jeffrey M. Jones The prevailing view among Americans is that the Republican Party has become more conservative since Barack Obama took office, but not necessarily because of the Tea Party movement’s influence. Among the 54% who say so, about a third—representing 19% of all Americans—think the Tea Party movement is the primary reason for this; the rest believe other factors are at work.

remainder neutral or not having an opinion, consistent with what Gallup has found in four separate polls this year. Those who describe themselves as Tea Party “opponents” widely believe the Republican Party has become more conservative, while those who say they are Tea Party “supporters” are closely divided in their views of whether a shift has occurred.

In contrast, views on the Republican Party’s ideology are similar among the three traditional party groups—59% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 50% of independents believe the GOP has become more conservative since Obama took office. Americans who believe the Republican Party has become more conservative are divided in their opinions of whether that is a “good thing” (50%) or a “bad thing” (48%). Predictably, conservatives and Republicans generally believe the perceived GOP shift is a good thing, and liberals and Democrats take the opposite view. Bottom Line Key indicators of the 2010 political environment, including the generic congressional ballot, indicate that the Republican Party is politically well-positioned heading into this fall’s midterm elections. This may be partly because Americans tend to disapprove of most of the major legislation passed under Obama and the Democratic Congress now in power. However, one possible weakness for the Republican Party during the fall campaign could be the perception that the party has become more conservative. Americans may be frustrated with the Democrats’ performance, but if the Democratic Party can convince voters that the Republican candidates are too extreme, it may be able to hold on to its majorities in the House and Senate. Survey Methods

The Tea Party has clearly affected Republican politics this year, with candidates backed by Tea Party activists defeating several incumbents or establishment figures in Republican U.S. Senate nominating contests. The Aug. 27-30 poll was conducted before the most recent Tea Party win in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday, but after earlier wins for the movement in GOP Senate primaries and conventions in states such as Alaska, Kentucky, Utah, and Florida. The poll finds 30% of Americans identifying themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement and 27% as opponents, with the

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Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error

include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 17, 2010 OBESITY LINKED TO LOWER EMOTIONAL WELLBEING Obese Americans also less likely to report experiencing positive emotions

weight Americans again report similar levels of positive emotions as obese Americans, while those who are overweight are similar to normal weight individuals.

While obesity is higher among low-income and middle-aged Americans, the differences between the obese and non-obese in negative and positive emotions persist regardless of income or age.

by Elizabeth Mendes Obese Americans, a group already grappling with many physical health problems, are also suffering in terms of their emotional wellbeing. The more than one in four American adults who are obese are significantly more likely than those who are normal weight or overweight to report having been diagnosed with depression and experiencing stress, worry, anger, and sadness.

The disparity in depression diagnoses is even more severe, with 23.2% of obese Americans reporting having been diagnosed with the condition compared with 14.3% of those who are a normal weight reporting the same. Carrying some extra weight does not appear to have the same effect as being obese, as negative emotion levels among those who are overweight are about the same as among those who are a normal weight. On the other hand, not weighing enough does link to higher levels of negative emotions. Underweight Americans’ emotional health is about on par or slightly worse than that of obese individuals, underscoring the clear benefits of maintaining a relatively healthy weight. At 1.7%, however, underweight Americans make up a small percentage of the adult population in the United States. These data, collected January-September 2010 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, encompass more than 250,000 interviews. The survey asks respondents if they experienced each of the emotions “yesterday” and if they have ever been diagnosed with depression. Body Mass Index (BMI) scores are based on respondents’ self-reported height and weight. A BMI of 30 or greater is considered obese, 25.0 to 29.9 is overweight, 18.5 to 24.9 is normal weight, and less than 18.5 is underweight. The analysis finds that the majority of Americans are either overweight (36.3%) or obese (26.7%) and 35.3% are a normal weight. Obese Americans also report less happiness and enjoyment versus those who are normal or overweight, although a large majority in each group report experiencing these positive emotions. Under-

Bottom Line The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data reveal a clear connection between obesity and increased negative emotions, higher rates of diagnosed depression, and decreased positive emotions/experiences. However, the direction of the relationship is not clear. It is possible that Americans with a history of diagnosed depression or who are more worried or stressed are more likely to become obese. But it could also be that those who are obese experience a decrease in their emotional wellbeing as a consequence of their personal weight situation. Most likely, the results reflect a combination of both possibilities. Either way, the obese population is clearly burdened by abnormally high levels of diagnosed depression and negative emotions. High levels of stress, worry, anger, sadness, and depression in particular decrease a person’s quality of life and can have an impact on his or her engagement in society and work. To add to the problem, the average number of Americans classified as obese is up to 26.7% so far in 2010, compared with 25.5% in 2008 when Gallup started tracking obesity levels. With such a sizeable obese population, the broader effect of this group’s decreased emotional wellbeing on communities and businesses is important and could be potentially costly in terms of healthcare and productivity. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 1- Sept. 14, 2010, with a random sample of more than 250,187 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status,

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cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 17, 2010 AMERICANS RENEW CALL FOR THIRD PARTY Fifty-eight percent of Americans, and 62% of Tea Party supporters, favor third party by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ desires for a third political party are as high as they have been in seven years. Fifty-eight percent of Americans believe a third major political party is needed because the Republican and Democratic Parties do a poor job of representing the American people. That is a significant increase from 2008 and ties the high Gallup has recorded for this measure since 2003.

The finding, based on an Aug. 27-30 USA Today/Gallup poll, comes at a time when Americans are widely dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States and give relatively weak approval ratings to the president and Congress. Though the rise in support for a third party could be linked to the Tea Party movement, Tea Party supporters are just about average in terms of wanting to see a third party created. Sixty-two percent of those who describe themselves as Tea Party supporters would like a third major party formed, but so do 59% of those who are neutral toward the Tea Party movement. Tea Party opponents are somewhat less likely to see the need for a third party. The desire for a third party is fairly similar across ideological groups, with 61% of liberals, 60% of moderates, and 54% of conservatives believing a third major party is needed. That is a narrower gap than Gallup has found in the past; conservatives have typically been far less likely than liberals and moderates to support the creation of a third party. Independents, as might be expected given their lack of primary allegiance to either of the two major parties, express a greater

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degree of support (74%) for a third party than do Republicans (47%) and Democrats (45%). Over time, independents have consistently been the political group most eager to see a third party formed. But each party group is more likely now than in 2008 to support the formation of a third major party. At that time, about two months before the presidential election, 38% of Democrats, 40% of Republicans, and 63% of independents thought a third party was necessary.

Bottom Line Election results in recent years and polls from this year indicate Americans are frustrated with the job the two major parties have been doing. In 2006, voters elected a Democratic majority in Congress to replace the Republican majority, and in 2008 they elected a Democratic president to replace an outgoing Republican president. Polling on voters’ 2010 voting intentions suggests that they may be poised to replace the Democratic majority in Congress with a Republican majority. But that seems to be as much because voters are rejecting Democrats as embracing Republicans. Given the lack of alternatives, it perhaps is no surprise that Americans’ desires for a third party are as high as they’ve been in at least the last seven years. And while the formation of an official third party is not imminent, that desire may be manifested in voters’ strong anti-incumbent sentiments this year.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

ratings subsequently leveled off, but fell slightly further this summer, and remain at the lower level today.

Congress’ current approval rating is now approaching Gallup’s record low of 14%, measured in July 2008, and is already worse than the lowest congressional approval score in a midterm election year, 21% in 1994 and 2006. Congress’ approval rating is strikingly low among both Republicans and independents, albeit largely unchanged from ratings of the past four months. While Democrats are more charitable in their reviews of the Democratically controlled Congress, barely a third now approve—a shift from a year ago at this time, when a majority approved.

September 20, 2010 CONGRESS ONLY GROWING LESS POPULAR WITH AMERICANS Fewer than 20% now approve, similar to August reading by Lydia Saad Public approval of Congress remains in short supply in September, with 18% of Americans now approving of the job it is doing, similar to the 19% approving in August. Congress’ approval rating has not been above 20% since May, and has not surpassed 30% since September 2009.

The latest findings are from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Sept. 13-16. The decline in approval of Congress since the beginning of 2009 has closely paralleled the drop in approval for President Barack Obama over the same period. Both the president and the Democratic-led Congress saw a sharp slide in their public approval ratings last summer, punctuated by a sharp drop in October. Their

Underscoring the difficulty the Democratic Congress is having in satisfying its political base, the majority of political liberals—those calling themselves “liberal” as well as “very liberal”—disapprove of the job it is doing. A year ago at this time, the majority of the very liberal group approved, as did close to half of liberals.

Bottom Line Americans show no signs of relenting in their broad disapproval of the job Congress is doing as the midterm elections draw near, setting

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the stage for major seat losses for the Democratic majority. It is not only Republicans and independents who are driving this, but rankand-file Democrats. Members of the 111th Congress can point to several major legislative accomplishments, including passing President Obama’s requested economic stimulus plan, healthcare reform, and, most recently, financial regulatory reform—all of which are widely popular with Democrats (although met with mixed reviews from the public as a whole). Still, even Democrats’ support for Congress has been ratcheting down. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 21, 2010 ECONOMY, JOBS EASILY TOP PROBLEMS IN AMERICANS’ MINDS Those citing these issues say Republicans would do better on the economy, Democrats on jobs by Jeffrey M. Jones The economy in general and the specific economic problem of unemployment or lack of jobs far outpace all other issues when Americans are asked to name the most important problem facing the country. Only one other issue—dissatisfaction with government—is mentioned by at least 10% of Americans. Although Americans may be inclined to disagree, the National Bureau of Economic Research on Monday announced that the recession that began in December 2007 officially ended in June 2009. Still, the economy remains sluggish and the unemployment rate continues to exceed 9%. President Obama made jobs the centerpiece of his televised town hall meeting on Monday. The economy and jobs have been the two most commonly mentioned problems each month this year. Healthcare and natural disas-

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ter response (related to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill) have at times approached the economic issues in frequency of mentions, and a fairly consistent percentage has mentioned dissatisfaction with the government.

Going further back, either the economy or jobs has been the top issue mentioned each month since February 2008, when the economy overtook Iraq. During this time, the economy usually has been the top issue, though jobs tied the economy in February 2010 and topped it in March and April 2010. Those Citing Jobs, Economy Differ as to Which Party Better on That Issue The Sept. 13-16 poll also asked Americans to say which party would better handle the problem they think is most important. Overall, Americans are divided as to which would better handle that problem, with 40% saying the Republican Party and 38% the Democratic Party. However, there is a difference of opinion as to which political party would better handle jobs and which party would better handle the economy among those who cite each as the most important problem. Those mentioning the economy believe the Republican Party would better address the issue than the Democratic Party, while those who say jobs is the top issue think the Democratic Party would better handle that issue. Bottom Line It is clear that economic concerns are paramount in voters’ minds with the midterm elections less than two months away. A poor economy makes re-election challenging for incumbents, especially those from the governing party. Consistent with this, Gallup’s tracking of

2010 election voting preferences continues to suggest that Republicans’ electoral prospects are better than Democrats’. However, the extent to which voters’ concerns center more around the specific issue of jobs and less around the economy more generally could provide an opportunity for Democrats to improve their party’s standing this fall. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 21, 2010 ON THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT, PARTIES’ RATINGS LOOK LIKE 1994 Americans more likely to see Republicans than Democrats representing their views and values by Lydia Saad Americans’ opinions about how well the Democratic Party represents their views on the role of government have soured in recent years. The percentage saying the party is doing either very or moderately well on this has dropped from 57% in October 2006 to 44% today. Over the same period, the Republican Party’s image on the role of government has held fairly steady and, as a result, the GOP now leads on this dimension, similar to its position in October 1994.

More specifically, according to the Aug. 27-30 USA Today/ Gallup survey, fewer than half of Americans, 44%, now say the Democratic Party represents their views on the role of government either very or moderately well, while 54% say it does this not very or not at all well. Americans are more evenly divided in their views of the Republican Party in this arena, with 52% generally saying it is doing well and 47% not well. After the 1994 elections, which saw the Democrats lose majority control of Congress to the Republicans for the first time in nearly a half century, the Democrats went on to lead the Republicans on this measure in 1999, 2005, and 2006. The current reversal is yet another sign that a shake-up of the political balance in Washington may be looming. Republicans Also Lead for Representing Values Americans’ perceptions of how well each party represents their values show a similar trend. Democrats have lost ground on this dimension in recent years while Republicans have maintained their ground or possibly gained a little ground, resulting in a distinct Republican advantage, 56% to 49%, again similar to the parties’ 1994 standing.

While the Republicans may have an edge on these two policyoriented image perceptions, the parties are about tied in perceptions of how well each understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives. In answer to this party image item, first asked this year, the slight majority of Americans believe the Republicans and Democrats understand Americans’ day-to-day problems either “not too well” or “not well at all.” Bottom Line Americans’ views on how well the two major parties reflect their views on the role of government and their values more broadly make clear that the Democrats’ image has suffered since they won back control of Congress in 2006. Republicans have not made comparable perceptual gains in these areas, but largely as a result of the Democrats’ losses, Republicans are now leading on both dimensions, similar to their standing in 1994.

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Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 27-30, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 22, 2010 RECESSION OR NOT, U.S. JOB MARKET WOES PERSIST Unemployment rate as measured by Gallup is increasing by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Even as Wall Street rallies on the National Bureau of Economic Research announcement that the recession ended in June 2009, Gallup finds—more than a year later—that 88% of Americans believe now is a bad time to find a quality job. The percentage of Americans holding these views about finding a quality job is as high now as it was a year ago, and higher than it was at this time in 2008, when the recession was fully underway. Three years ago, in September 2007—just prior to the official beginning of the recession that December—55% held this view of the job market. Unemployment Rate Increasing The unemployment rate component of Gallup’s underemployment measure continues to rise, with the latest 30-day average hitting 9.7% 320

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(not seasonally adjusted) on Tuesday, Sept. 20—up from 9.4% last week, 9.3% in August, and 8.9% at the end of July.

Underemployment was also up during this period, reaching 18.8% on Sept. 20—increasing from 18.6% readings last week and in August, and 18.4% at the end of July. Addressing the Non-Recession The National Bureau of Economic Research’s announcement that the recession ended more than a year ago may simply feed into many Americans’ feelings that traditional economic measurements do not reflect Main Street reality. Prior to the pronouncement, 82% of Americans saw the U.S. economy as still in a recession—essentially the same percentage as a year ago. Significantly, Gallup’s behavioral economic data tend to support the perception that the recession continues. As already noted, Americans’ views about the availability of quality jobs are worse now than they were at this time in 2008. The unemployment rate and underemployment, as measured by Gallup, are also increasing more than a year after the official end of the recession. Further, Gallup’s modeling, updated for the most recent increase in underemployment, suggests that the government will announce on Oct. 8 that the unemployment rate increased further in September. The Federal Open Market Committee’s Tuesday statement seems to support this Main Street view by implying that the U.S. economy is expanding so slowly that unemployment will remain unacceptably high for years to come. Further, any marginal improvements in growth are likely to be largely imperceptible to Main Street unless something is done. Recession or not, this sets up an interesting situation for the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting in November, which happens to take place at the time of the midterm elections.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Underemployment and unemployment results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Aug. 21 to Sept. 20, 2010, with a random sample of 18,057 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on this total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 22, 2010 IN U.S., CONSUMPTION OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES TRAILS ACCESS Most in U.S. report easy access to affordable fresh produce; few consume recommended amount by Lymari Morales On the heels of the news that Americans aren’t consuming as many fruits and vegetables as recommended, an analysis of Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index data from 2010 suggests access may not be the problem. Nationwide, 92% of Americans report easy access to affordable fresh produce where they live, as do at least 8 in 10 residents in all states but Alaska. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index asks Americans each day about their ease of access to affordable fresh fruits and vegetables in their community as well as on how many days in the past week they consumed five or more servings of fruits and vegetables. This analysis is based on 176,544 interviews conducted with adults nationwide between January-June 2010. Nationwide, less than half of Americans (46.6%) report eating five or more servings of fruits and vegetables on five or more days

per week, but 32.7% do so two to four days per week and 19.4% do so one or fewer days per week. Those who say they do not have easy access to fresh produce consume less fruits and vegetables than those who do. The findings make clear the gravity of the challenge for those who are encouraging Americans to eat more fruits and vegetables. Even among Americans with easy access to fresh produce, more than half are not consuming fruits and vegetables on a frequent basis on five or more days per week. The government’s Healthy People 2010 initiative in 2000 set out to get 75% of Americans to eat two servings of fruit and 50% to eat three servings of vegetables daily by 2010. A CDC report released last week, based on data collected in 2009, finds 32.5% hitting the target for fruits and 26.3% for vegetables, and consumption actually down in the past decade. Gallup also previously reported a decline in fruit and vegetable consumption from 2008 to 2009. The Gallup-Healthways question differs from the CDC question in that it gauges the number of days per week Americans consume five servings or more of fruits and vegetables rather than how many times per day they eat these foods. The CDC used to recommend five or more servings daily and now encourages consuming “generous amounts” of fruits and vegetables customized to individuals’ age, sex, and activity level. It contends doing so reduces risk of chronic diseases such as stroke, type 2 diabetes, some types of cancer, and perhaps heart disease. The Gallup-Healthways data suggest that making it easier to get affordable fruits and vegetables may not be enough to significantly increase consumption. Most states do a good job of providing easy access to fresh produce to the vast majority of their residents. Future analyses will explore access within cities and specific subgroups.

Implications While the vast majority of Americans nationwide and in most states report easy access to affordable fresh fruits and vegetables, more

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clear that influencing something as personal as what one eats on a daily basis is no easy task. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 176,544 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. The margin of sampling error for most states is ±1 to ±2 percentage points, but is as high as ±4 percentage points for smaller states such as Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Hawaii. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 23, 2010 AMERICANS TRUST U.S. MORE ON FOREIGN THAN ON DOMESTIC AFFAIRS Confidence in government on domestic affairs hits a new low point by Lydia Saad Gallup’s annual Governance survey finds 57% of Americans expressing a great deal or fair amount of trust in the U.S. government to handle international problems. That is down from 62% a year ago, but remains higher than the percentage trusting Washington to handle domestic problems, now at a record-low 46%.

than half of Americans are not yet consuming fruits and vegetables on a frequent basis on five or more days per week. While easy access to fresh produce does appear to be related to greater consumption at the national level, policymakers and community leaders should also recognize that even 100% access may not get Americans to eat as many fruits and vegetables as they should. While the health benefits of better eating are widely known, it is

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The American people’s trust in the federal government to handle international problems takes on particular relevance as President Barack Obama addresses the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Thursday. Americans’ confidence in the federal government to handle international problems has varied greatly over the past 13 years, from a high of 83% immediately after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 to 51% during the Iraq war in 2007. Confidence in the government on international problems also rose sharply in July 2000, coinciding with a major Palestinian-Israeli peace summit at Camp David sponsored by then-President Bill Clinton. Trust in the government’s handling of domestic matters has generally tracked below public trust on international matters but has mostly followed the same trajectory. In the last several years as the economy has struggled, fewer than half of Americans have trusted the government’s handling of domestic problems (with only one exception). The vast majority of Democrats today have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in the federal government on both policy dimensions, no doubt because the Democrats continue to control the White House and both houses of Congress. Accordingly, there has been little change in Democrats’ views over the past year. A slight majority of independents express confidence in the government on international problems, while 40% have confidence in the government on domestic problems, also similar to 2009 in each case. By contrast, fewer than 4 in 10 Republicans today are confident in the government on either issue, with a 12 percentage-point drop since 2009 in their confidence on international problems.

United States’ role should be in world affairs and to perhaps restore public satisfaction with America’s global position. To bolster Americans’ confidence in the government on international problems, he may also want to use the speech to make the case that, working with the U.N., the U.S. has been successful in addressing several important global matters. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 23, 2010 REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRATIC PARTY FAVORABILITY IDENTICAL AT 44% Majorities view both parties unfavorably Bottom Line Americans’ ratings of government efforts to solve international and domestic problems are now about where they were in early September 2008—in the last year of George W. Bush’s term, but shortly before the Wall Street financial crisis that sent consumer confidence plummeting. Trust in the government on both international and domestic affairs was slightly higher in September 2009—Obama’s first year in office—but has since receded. Other Gallup polling shows that Americans’ perceptions of the United States’ global reputation improved once Obama took office, after growing increasingly negative under Bush earlier this decade. At the same time, Gallup’s World Affairs survey in February of this year found Americans still more dissatisfied than satisfied with the country’s position in the world—63% vs. 35%. This mindset emerged in the early part of the Iraq war and has proved enduring since. President Obama’s speech this week at the United Nations presents an opportunity for him to articulate his vision for what the

by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ favorable ratings of the two major U.S. political parties are the same (44%), according to a Sept. 13-16 Gallup poll. In recent years, Republicans’ ratings have generally improved and Democrats’ have generally worsened.

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Gallup has asked Americans since 1992 to say whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each political party. Historically, the Democratic Party has averaged a 53% favorable rating, compared with 46% for the Republican Party. Thus, each party’s current 44% favorable rating is below average from a historical perspective, particularly so for the Democrats. And the fact that the ratings are the same for both parties is also a departure from the norm. As has been the case throughout this year, a majority of Americans view both parties unfavorably. Americans have had mostly negative views of the Republicans for the last five years. Prior to this year, though, a majority of Americans had never viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably.

aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Favorable Ratings by Political Affiliation The poll shows identical percentages of independents giving each party a favorable rating (36%). Those who identify with either of the two parties naturally rate their preferred party much more positively than the other party, but partisans are notably more extreme in their views of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party.

September 24, 2010 TRUST IN LEGISLATIVE BRANCH FALLS TO RECORD-LOW 36% Trust also down in executive and judicial branches by Frank Newport A record-low 36% of Americans have a great deal or fair amount of trust and confidence in the legislative branch of government, down sharply from the prior record low of 45% set last year. Trust in the judicial branch and trust in the executive branch also suffered sharp declines this year but remain higher than trust in the legislative branch.

That pattern has been evident in each of the last two party favorable updates, but is not typical. Bottom Line With the 2010 midterm elections fast approaching, Americans have similarly negative views of the two major political parties. That is a distinct departure from the 2006 midterms, when a majority of Americans viewed the Democratic Party positively and the Republican Party negatively prior to the Democrats’ regaining control of the House and Senate. Gallup has not historically asked party favorables prior to each midterm election, so it is not clear what the current results might predict for this fall’s contests. But this is another sign that the Republicans’ stronger positioning in voters’ preferences this year is probably due more to voters’ frustration or disappointment with the Democratic Party than to their embracing of the Republican Party. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults,

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Gallup has measured these trends each year since 2001 as part of its annual Governance survey, and prior to that on an occasional basis in the 1990s and the 1970s. While trust in the legislative branch has been steadily declining for years, trust in the other two branches of government—the executive and the judicial—had risen in 2009

compared with 2008. All in all, between last year and this, trust in the legislative branch fell 9 percentage points, trust in the executive branch fell 11 points, and in the judicial branch, 10 points. Trust in the legislative branch was highest, at 71%, in May 1972, and remained generally high from that point to the mid-2000s. It then dropped to 50% in 2007, 47% in 2008, and 45% in 2009, all record lows at the time they were measured. This year’s 36% legislative confidence rating marks still another record low, and is the lowest trust level in any of the three branches of government in Gallup’s history. Trust in the executive branch has shifted up and down with some frequency over the last four decades, generally in sync with movement in presidential job approval ratings. Gallup measured the lowest level of trust in the executive branch, 40%, in April 1974, in the midst of the Watergate scandal, which later that year resulted in Richard Nixon’s resignation. Trust was nearly as low in the waning years of the George W. Bush administration. Last year, the first year of the Barack Obama administration, trust in the executive branch shot up to 61%, but it has fallen back again this year, coinciding with the fall in Obama’s job approval ratings to below 50%. Trust in the judicial branch of government is at 66%, down from last year but roughly in line with readings since 2003. Gallup recorded the highest judicial branch trust reading, 80%, in February 1999, at about the time the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice William Rehnquist was presiding in the U.S. Senate over the impeachment trial of President Bill Clinton. Trust in Legislative Branch Remains Highest Among Democrats Trends in trust in the legislative branch over the last three years have differed among partisan groups. Democrats have evinced the most trust in all three years, but the 14-point drop for Democrats between 2009 and this year is much larger than the 3-point drops among independents and Republicans.

Shifts among partisan groups in ratings of the executive branch have been much more dramatic, reflecting the change from a Republican to a Democratic presidential administration between 2008 and 2009. Democrats’ trust in the executive branch jumped more than 80 points between 2008 and 2009, while Republicans’ trust fell almost as sharply. This year, ratings of the executive branch have dropped at least marginally across all partisan groups, with the 12-point drop among independents being the largest.

in low congressional job approval ratings and a number of other indicators underscoring the public’s disenchantment with its elected representatives. These trends are particularly important this year, given the midterm elections, which will almost certainly affect the composition and perhaps party control of both the House and Senate. The overall record-low levels of trust in the legislative branch undergird the expectation that voters this fall may be attempting to express their frustrations with Congress by voting out incumbents and/or members of the incumbent party. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Implications The substantial drop in Americans’ trust in the legislative branch of government reflects the same underlying attitudes that have resulted

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September 24, 2010 AMERICANS CONFIDENT IN OWN BANK, BUT NOT U.S. BANKS Six in 10 express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in their primary bank by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist The percentage of Americans saying they have a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in U.S. banks stands at 18%, continuing a trend of low confidence recorded throughout the economic downturn.

Today, most banks are making a major effort to increase customer service quality and build customer loyalty. Americans’ continued confidence in the bank they deal with most often—their main bank—reflects the success much of the industry is having in this regard. Of course, there is still room for considerable improvement. In order to have a strong and growing economy, the U.S. must have a vibrant banking system. Whether the implementation of financial reform will help achieve this goal and/or give a much-needed positive boost to the reputation of U.S. banks is yet to be seen. Survey Methods

This question was asked as part of the Gallup Daily tracking survey on Sept. 17-22. Gallup has measured banking confidence in separate surveys dating to the late 1970s, and since the 2008-2009 recession and financial crisis, Americans’ confidence has reached new lows. Confidence has fallen well below the low 30% range seen during the 1990-91 recession, which in turn was brought on by the fallout associated with the savings and loan bailout of the late 1980s. Americans’ Confidence in Their Main Bank Up Slightly In the same survey, 6 in 10 Americans express confidence in their main or primary bank, defined as the place where they do most of their banking business. This figure is up slightly from 58% in April 2009 and March 2010. At the same time, fewer than 1 in 10 Americans express “very little” confidence in their primary bank.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking survey Sept. 17-22, 2010, with a random sample of 5,052 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 27, 2010 CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE REPUBLICAN PARTY, SKEW OLDER Religion, age are key differentiators of conservatives and moderates/liberals by Lydia Saad

Confidence in U.S. Banks Remains Fragile Gallup data show that the reputation of America’s banks continues to suffer from the fallout of the financial crisis and bank bailout. On the other hand, bankers should take some solace in that the majority of their customers have a positive view of the place where they do most of their banking. 326

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Gallup Daily tracking thus far in 2010 finds 18% of Republicans describing their political views as very conservative and 53% as conservative while 29% are moderate or liberal. There are few demographic differences between Republicans who call themselves “very conservative” and those identifying as simply “conservative.” However, both conservative groups differ significantly by religious identification and by age from moderate and liberal Republicans, more so than on any other demographic characteristic analyzed. Seventy-three percent of very conservative Republicans are Protestant, as are 66% of conservative Republicans. In contrast, 59%

of moderate/liberal Republicans are Protestant. Moderate/Liberal Republicans are also more likely than conservatives to have no religious affiliation. Age separates conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans as well. Forty-three percent of very conservative Republicans and 42% of conservative Republicans are 55 or older, compared with 34% of moderate/liberal Republicans. A relatively small 16% of very conservative Republicans are aged 18 to 34, compared with 27% of moderate/liberal Republicans.

far in 2010 (through Sept. 23). That exceeds the 67% Gallup found in 2006 and the 62% in 2002—the last two midterm election years. Among Republicans today, conservatives are more likely to be Protestant, much more likely to be religious, and are, on average, older than moderate/liberal Republicans. They also consist more heavily of men, whites, and those living in the South—but the differences here are not as pronounced. In that voter turnout is generally much greater among middleaged and older Americans than among younger adults, it is likely that conservative (and religious) Republicans have had an even greater voice in Republican Party primaries this year than their numbers suggest. Coupled with the expanded proportion of conservatives within the Republican ranks over the past decade, this may help explain the success of several Tea Party-backed GOP candidates this year against establishment Republicans. It also highlights the turnout advantage conservatives will likely have in the upcoming general elections. Survey Methods

These findings are based on an aggregate of Gallup Daily tracking data collected thus far in 2010, and encompass interviews with more than 78,000 Republicans nationwide. Related to the age and religious differences between the different Republican factions, Gallup finds conservative Republicans much more likely than moderate/liberal Republicans to say religion is very important in their lives, and to say they attend their church or other place of worship weekly. In fact, those who are very conservative are nearly twice as likely as moderates/liberals to attend weekly— 61% vs. 32%—with conservatives falling about midway between the two, at 46%. This relationship between religiosity and conservative political values is as strong within the Republican Party as it is among Americans more generally. Conservative Republicans are also generally more likely to be white and male than their moderate/liberal counterparts. And very conservative Republicans are more likely to live in the South—40% of them do—than are conservatives (36%) and moderates/liberals (33%). Implications As reported on Gallup.com earlier this year, the conservative bloc may be growing in influence in the Republican Party. Whereas 62% of core Republicans called themselves conservative in 2000, the figure has been 70% or higher each year since 2008, including 71% thus

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-Sept. 23, 2010, with a random sample of 262,075 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than ±1 percentage point. For results based on the total sample of 78,556 Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is less than ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling

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error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 27, 2010 MIDTERM ELECTION LANDSCAPE STILL POINTS TO REPUBLICAN GAINS A summary of Gallup’s key indicators to date by Frank Newport Gallup’s analysis of key indicators relating to the 2010 congressional midterm elections continues to suggest that the Republican Party will make significant seat gains. President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is below 50%, and both congressional job approval and satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. are well below 40%—all levels that generally predict large seat losses for the party of the sitting president.

From a broader perspective, the generic ballot among registered voters so far this year has shown four phases in the election campaign. The two parties were roughly tied from March through June, Democrats did better in July, Republicans had a strong month in August, and in September the two parties have returned to parity. Given the usual Democratic advantages in party identification among the general public, it is rare for Republicans to lead on the generic ballot among registered voters. This was the case even when Republicans were the majority congressional party from the mid1990s to the mid-2000s. Turnout is crucial in midterm elections. With at least 80% of Americans registered to vote but only about half that number likely to vote in the midterm elections, registered voter and actual voter preferences can differ significantly. Turnout typically favors Republicans, and a tie in the generic ballot among all registered voters (as Gallup found in the final preelection poll in 1994) more than likely means Republicans have a lead among those likely to vote. Gallup will begin estimating voting preferences among the projected electorate using likely voter modeling beginning next week. At this point, it is probable that Republicans will do better among those estimated to be most likely to vote than among all registered voters. Enthusiasm About Voting

Gallup’s generic ballot for Congress for the week of Sept. 2026 shows the race tied among all registered voters. However, Republicans’ continuing higher enthusiasm coupled with the usual GOP turnout advantage suggest a significant Republican edge in the nationwide vote for the U.S. House, and, in turn, significant Republican House seat gains. With five weeks to go before the Nov. 2 elections, and campaigning intensifying, these indicators could shift, but it would require a major reorientation of voter sentiment to shift the probabilities significantly in the Democrats’ direction.

Republicans have maintained a significant advantage over Democrats in enthusiasm about voting since Gallup began tracking the measure weekly in March. In Gallup’s latest update, from Sept. 20-26, 48% of Republicans said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 28% of Democrats.

Generic Ballot for Congress Gallup’s generic congressional ballot provides a summary measure of Americans’ current voting intentions for Congress. The generic ballot has proven a highly accurate predictor of the national vote for the House of Representatives in midterm election years. At this point, the generic ballot shows 46% of registered voters choosing the Democratic candidate and 46% the Republican candidate, based on more than 3,000 interviews conducted Sept. 20-26. Three out of the last four weeks have found the generic ballot among registered voters essentially tied.

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Generally speaking, the party whose identifiers show an advantage on voting enthusiasm tends to fare better on Election Day. For example, Republicans had enthusiasm advantages in 1994 and 2002,

while Democrats had an advantage in 2006. In 1998, a very close election, neither party had an apparent advantage. Presidential Job Approval President Obama’s job approval rating averaged 44% for the week of Sept. 20-26. This is not an auspicious sign for Democrats, because history shows that presidents who have sub-50% approval ratings prior to midterm elections generally see their parties suffer large congressional seat losses.

If Obama’s job approval rating remains close to its current level through October, history would suggest that the Democratic Party will suffer significant losses in the Nov. 2 elections. Obama’s job rating has been fairly steady in recent months, within a relatively small 43% to 48% band since mid-May. Congressional Job Approval Congressional job approval is now at 18%. This is the lowest congressional approval Gallup has recorded before any midterm election dating to 1974. Everything else being equal, a congressional job approval rating at this level predicts major seat turnover in the midterm elections. Low congressional approval ratings have historically been associated with greater congressional seat turnover in midterm elections, and higher congressional approval ratings with less change, regardless of which party controls the legislative branch. The dividing line appears to be a 40% approval rating for Congress, with seat losses minimized when approval exceeds that level and seat losses generally large when approval is below that figure. Satisfaction With the U.S. Americans’ current satisfaction with the way things are going in the country, 19%, is significantly lower than any such measure in the month before a midterm election since 1982. This satisfaction rating, similar to the right track/wrong track measures used by other polling organizations, is less overtly politi-

cal than presidential job approval, but has an analogous relationship to election outcomes. Lower satisfaction levels—which usually reflect Americans’ assessments of the current political and economic situation—are associated with poorer performances for the president’s party in midterm elections, particularly when satisfaction is below 40%. Thus, satisfaction with the way things are going joins presidential and congressional job approval as an indicator of a projected poorer outcome for the president’s party on Election Day. Bottom Line Three key indicators of the political environment—satisfaction, presidential approval, and congressional approval—are low by historical norms just six weeks before this year’s midterm elections. Because the Democratic Party controls both the presidency and Congress, Democrats are vulnerable this year to incurring voters’ wrath that usually results from these levels of dissatisfaction. Even so, Democrats remain tied with Republicans on registeredvoter preferences for the U.S. House—both in Gallup’s latest weekly update, and based on more than 8,700 interviews conducted in September. However, a tie among registered voters does not factor in turnout, which usually favors Republicans. Estimates of voting among the probable electorate, which Gallup will begin to measure next week, may reveal a significantly stronger Republican tilt, as was the case in both 1994 and 2002. The GOP edge in turnout may be higher than usual this year, given heightened Republican enthusiasm about voting as well as generally higher turnout in Republican than in Democratic primary contests this year. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Sept. 20-26, 2010, with a random sample of 3,148 reg-

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istered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Results for Obama approval, congressional job approval, and U.S. satisfaction are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 28, 2010 GULF COAST RESIDENTS WORSE OFF EMOTIONALLY AFTER BP OIL SPILL Depression diagnoses, daily stress and worry all increase for Gulf residents by Dan Witters Residents of Gulf Coast-facing counties experienced a decline in their overall emotional health, as measured by the Gallup-Healthways Emotional Health Index, in the 15 weeks after the onset of the BP oil spill. Those living in inland counties in the same Gulf of Mexico states showed no such drops in emotional health in the oil spill’s aftermath. These findings are based on 2,598 interviews conducted from Jan. 2-Aug. 6, 2010, with residents of 25 Gulf Coast-facing counties from the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Texas. Of these interviews, 1,239 occurred after the April 20 oil spill. During the same period, 30,657 interviews were conducted with residents of inland counties of Gulf Coast states and 179,435 in nonGulf states as a part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, again split roughly equally on either side of April 20. The Emotional Health Index is one of six sub-indexes that make up the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, and includes 330

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10 individual items. Several of these items, including daily worry, stress, sadness, and clinical depression, provide insight into the potential negative emotional health effects of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Residents of Gulf Coast-facing counties reported 25.6% more clinical diagnoses of depression in the period after the oil spill compared with before it. It is important to note that this question is posed as a diagnosis occurring at any point in the respondent’s life, and it does not necessarily imply that the oil spill itself created new depression incidences. Still, the notable increase in diagnoses reveals that clinical depression along the Gulf coastline was climbing at a time when it was flat throughout the remainder of the country.

The Well-Being Index also measures daily mood in terms of stress, worry, and sadness experienced “a lot of the day yesterday.” Across each of these daily mood metrics, residents of Gulf Coastfacing counties experienced measurable increases in these negative emotions that their inland counterparts and residents of non-Gulf Coast states did not. The magnitude of these worsening daily emotional experiences, however, may be more modest than some might expect, given the severity of the oil spill itself and the extensive damage to local communities. City Satisfaction and Momentum Decline Post-Oil Spill in Gulf Counties In addition to a decline in emotional wellbeing, Gulf coast residents’ views of their communities also suffered. Satisfaction with the “city or area where you live” also declined modestly after the oil spill in the Gulf Coast-facing states, as did the percentage of people who believe that their city or area is “getting better as a place to live.” Again, Gallup did not find the same declines in emotional wellbeing among respondents who live further inland. Implications Taken together, these data document the extent to which residents living alongside the Gulf of Mexico have experienced a decrease in emotional health and satisfaction with their communities since the BP oil spill. Similar declines in these measures are not seen among populations further inland. These findings provide supporting evidence of the need for enhanced psychological assistance for residents

Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Mary, Iberia, Vermilion, Cameron, and St. Tammany. Alabama Gulf Coast-facing counties included: Baldwin and Mobile. Texas’ Gulf Coast-facing county was Jefferson. The collection of coast-facing and inland counties in these states is weighted to ensure that they are demographically representative of these counties. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 28, 2010 U.S. ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE REMAINS STEADY AT 2010 LOW As many rate the economy “poor” and say it is “getting worse” as did so in July and August by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Despite a terrific September on Wall Street, Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -33 over the first four weeks of September, essentially matching readings in July and August. There is thus little sign that the rising stock market has been met by a concomitant rise in Americans’ confidence in the economy.

of Gulf Coast-facing counties, and for the targeting of these efforts to residents living along the coastline itself rather than all residents living in the affected states. Survey Methods Results are based on 2,598 interviews conducted from Jan. 2- Aug. 6, 2010, with residents of 25 Gulf Coast-facing counties from the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and Texas. In addition to the collection of these data, 30,657 interviews were conducted with residents of inland counties of Gulf Coast states and 179,435 were conducted with non-Gulf states as a part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For results based on the three sample types for either before or after the oil spill event, one can say with 95% confidence that the typical margin of sampling error is ±3.0, ±0.9, and ±0.4 percentage points, respectively. Florida Gulf Coast-facing counties included: Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Bay, Gulf, and Walton. Mississippi Gulf Coast-facing counties included: Jackson, Harrison, Hancock, and Pearl River. Louisiana Gulf Coast-facing counties included: Orleans, St. Bernard,

The Economic Confidence Index is now more negative than the -23 of September 2009, but better than the -50 of September 2008. The Economic Confidence Index consists of the average of two consumer ratings: one involving current economic conditions and the other involving the economic outlook.

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Many Continue to Rate the U.S. Economy “Poor” Over the first four weeks of September, 47% of Americans called current economic conditions “poor”—identical to July and August.

Gallup’s confidence data also suggest that Americans’ perceptions of the economy continue to diverge from those on Wall Street. Economists’ declaration that the recession was over as of mid2009—and the perception that this eliminated the possibility of a double-dip—may have encouraged investors, who drove the Dow up to what may be its best September in 70 years. However, this seems to have done little to change perceptions on Main Street with the 82% who before the pronouncement saw the recession as ongoing. The possibility of further quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve as well as higher resource prices may also have a positive impact on Wall Street expectations in the short term. But until such Fed actions result in jobs, they are unlikely to have a similarly positive impact on Main Street economic expectations or to be of much help to incumbents in the midterm congressional elections. Survey Methods

Consumer ratings of current economic conditions are running slightly worse now than they were in September 2009, when 44% gave current conditions a “poor” rating, and are not much different than September 2008’s 46%. Six in 10 Say the Economy Is “Getting Worse” So far in September, 62% of consumers say economic conditions are “getting worse.” These future expectations for the economy are essentially the same as those of July and August—the 2010 lows— and substantially worse than the 54% in September 2009.

For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup economic confidence results are based on random half-samples of approximately 500 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. Weekly results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 3,000 adults. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Economic Confidence Not Improving Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index during the first four weeks of September remains essentially at July’s low level and not much different from August’s. In turn, this implies that the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index that improved in August will fall back to its July level when the September reading is announced on Tuesday. Similarly, Friday’s Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is likely to match its July level. However, given the differences in sampling methodologies between Gallup and these other organizations, and the marginal changes that have taken place over the past three months, there is an unusually high degree of uncertainty associated with the Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index reports this week. 332

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September 28, 2010 AMERICANS PREDICT GOP WILL WIN CONTROL OF HOUSE IN FALL Fifty-two percent think Republicans will win; 32% think Democrats will by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are much more likely to believe the Republicans rather than the Democrats will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in this fall’s midterm elections. More than 8 in 10 Republicans believe their party will win, while 62% of Democrats think their party will win. Independents by almost 2 to 1 (50% to 28%) think Republicans will win.

These results are based on a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 23-26. While Americans’ party preferences do influence their predictions to a large degree, the gap in the Republicans’ favor in terms of who Americans think will win the elections is much larger than the gap in voter preferences for Congress. In recent weeks, Gallup has found the 2010 vote to be tied or showing a slight Republican advantage among all registered voters. Americans have been quite successful in forecasting election outcomes, correctly predicting the winner of each of the four prior midterm elections when Gallup asked the same question in 1946, 1958, 1962, and 2006. The public also correctly predicted Barack Obama would win the 2008 presidential election. Though Americans may expect a Republican victory in the fall, they do not necessarily believe the country will benefit. The poll finds the largest number, 36%, saying the country will be better off if Republicans control Congress, but 24% believe the country will be worse off and 32% say it will not make any difference. These results are not necessarily problematic to the Republicans’ hopes of winning, as they are nearly identical to what Gallup measured when asking about a possible shift to Democratic control of Congress prior to the 2006 midterm elections.

In 2006, as now, about one in three Americans believed a change in party control would not make a difference, perhaps indicating some general cynicism about government in general. In the current data, even one in five Republicans say it will not make a difference if Republicans win back control of Congress. More generally, opinions on whether the country would benefit from Republican control are predictably partisan, with Republicans thinking the country would be better off if the GOP gained control, and Democrats believing the U.S. would be worse off. Independents are inclined to say it will not make any difference, though slightly more view it as a positive than a negative development. Bottom Line Americans generally believe the Republicans will wrest party control of Congress back from the Democrats in this fall’s elections, and the public has been accurate each time Gallup has asked it to predict the winner of an election. This track record may demonstrate a degree of sophistication on Americans’ part, in terms of their ability to read and process the signs in the political environment that point

to a particular election outcome. It could also be the result of a selffulfilling prophecy whereby Americans expect a party to win, and act in such a way (by voting for the party they think will win, or not voting if they think their favored party will lose) that helps make their expectation a reality. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 23-26, 2010, with a random sample of 1,036 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 29, 2010 DISTRUST IN U.S. MEDIA EDGES UP TO RECORD HIGH Perceptions of liberal bias still far outnumber perceptions of conservative bias by Lymari Morales For the fourth straight year, the majority of Americans say they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. The 57% who now say this is a record high by one percentage point. The 43% of Americans who, in Gallup’s annual Governance poll, conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, express a great deal or fair amount

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and more education. A subgroup analysis of these data suggests that three demographic groups key to advertisers—adults aged 18 to 29, Americans making at least $75,000 per year, and college graduates— lost more trust in the media in the past year than other groups, but the sample sizes in this survey are too small to say so definitively. Bottom Line

of trust ties the record low, and is far worse than three prior Gallup readings on this measure from the 1970s. Trust in the media is now slightly higher than the record-low trust in the legislative branch but lower than trust in the executive and judicial branches of government, even though trust in all three branches is down sharply this year. These findings also further confirm a separate Gallup poll that found little confidence in newspapers and television specifically. Nearly half of Americans (48%) say the media are too liberal, tying the high end of the narrow 44% to 48% range recorded over the past decade. One-third say the media are just about right while 15% say they are too conservative. Overall, perceptions of bias have remained quite steady over this tumultuous period of change for the media, marked by the growth of cable and Internet news sources. Americans’ views now are in fact identical to those in 2004, despite the many changes in the industry since then.

Democrats and liberals remain far more likely than other political and ideological groups to trust the media and to perceive no bias.

Gallup’s annual update on trust in the mass media finds Americans’ views entrenched—with a record-high 57% expressing little to no trust in the media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly, and 63% perceiving bias in one direction or the other. At the same time, the steady nature of these views stands in contrast to Americans’ views of the three branches of government, which are all down sharply this year. Thus, in an environment in which few institutions elicit high levels of trust, it appears the media are neither gaining nor losing significant ground—but are just managing to hold steady. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. The question on whether the media are too liberal, too conservative, or just about right is part of a USA Today/ Gallup poll series conducted as part of the same survey. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

September 29, 2010 U.S. CONSUMERS’ SEPTEMBER SPENDING MATCHES 2010 LOW $59-per-day average is down from August 2010 and September 2009 by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Lower-income Americans and those with less education are generally more likely to trust the media than are those with higher incomes

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Americans’ self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $59 per day during the first four weeks of September. Consumer spending is down from August ($63) and July

($68), and now matches its lowest level of 2010. Current spending is lower than that of a year ago and far below spending in September 2008, at the start of the financial collapse.

season or in anticipation of the coming holidays. It is possible that Gallup’s economic measures will see a course reversal and turn more positive just in time for the Christmas holidays. However, if the spending and jobs trends of the past two weeks continue, it could result in even less growth than economists’ revised projections suggest, and require further downward revisions, making for an extremely interesting Federal Reserve meeting in early November. Survey Methods

Weekly Self-Reported Spending Falls in Past Two Weeks Gallup’s consumer spending measure averaged $56 per day in the two weeks ending Sept. 26. This is down from $64 and $61 during the prior two weeks of September. The most recent two weeks are not only among the lowest spending weeks of 2010 but also below spending levels of the same weeks in 2009.

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking with a random sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the weekly sample of national adults averaging 3,500 interviews, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Hitting an Economic Wall Again Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noted earlier this year that the U.S. economy seemed to hit a wall in June. Since that point, Gallup and other economic data have shown the economy slowing, and economists have lowered their forecasts for the second half of 2010. Over the past couple of weeks in particular, Gallup’s consumer spending measure shows another drop-off—returning to the February lows for the year, and falling below year-ago “new normal” levels. At the same time, Gallup’s underemployment measure shows more people losing their jobs in recent weeks—with unemployment hitting 10% for the 30 days ending Sept. 27 and Sept. 28. Economic confidence is also running at its low point for 2010. It may be that today’s unusually high economic uncertainty has put Americans in a wait-and-see mode. Consumers and small business owners may simply be pulling back until the economic landscape is clearer. On the other hand, this may just be a couple of weeks’ economic pause that Gallup’s everyday measurement of the economic data has revealed. Perhaps people are spending less after the back-to-school

September 30, 2010 ROMNEY, PALIN AT FRONT OF GOP PRESIDENTIAL FIELD Preferences for leaders similar among conservative, moderate/liberal Republicans by Jeffrey M. Jones Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin lead other potential candidates in Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul also receive more than 5% support from Republicans nationwide. Gallup, in a poll conducted Sept. 25-26, asked Republicans and Republican-leaning independents which of 12 possible candidates they would be most likely to support for the party’s nomination. All 12 candidates are thought to be seriously considering a run for president, and many of them have already visited Iowa and New Hampshire, the states holding the first nominating contests. In addition to the 12 named candidates, 1% of respondents volunteered the name of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Christie, in

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Candidates Get More Support in Home Regions Typically, support for presidential nomination candidates varies geographically, with candidates generally faring best in their home regions. This appears to be the case with most of the current group of GOP contenders, as Palin’s support is highest in the West, and Huckabee gets somewhat higher support in the South. Romney shows particular strength in both the East, where he was governor of Massachusetts, and the West, where he served as chief executive of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympic games.

Bottom Line

his first year as governor of the state, has become a prominent GOP figure, though he is not expected to run for president in 2012. The current results are similar to prior Gallup polling on the 2012 nomination, using an open-ended format as well as a closedended format that offered a shorter list of candidates. Those polls also found Romney and Palin leading, with Huckabee and Gingrich next in line among likely candidates. Little Ideological Differentiation on Romney, Palin Romney and Palin are the top choices of both conservative and moderate or liberal Republicans, and in fact their support is similar among both groups. Of the top five candidates, Huckabee receives support that is most divided along ideological lines; he gets significantly more support among conservative Republicans.

Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, likely fares better among conservative Republicans because the group tends to be more religious. Among Republicans who say religion is important in their lives, Huckabee (14%) is essentially tied with Romney (17%) and Palin (16%).

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Generally speaking, the better-known candidates tend to fare best in early tests of support for presidential nominations. That helps explain why 2008 presidential candidates Romney and Huckabee, 2008 vice presidential nominee Palin, and former House Speaker Gingrich currently generate more support for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination than those who have not previously run for national office or held a high position in national government, such as Tim Pawlenty or Haley Barbour. Historically, Republicans have generally nominated the early front-runner as the party’s presidential candidate. The notable exception came in the last presidential election, when Rudy Giuliani led in most of the early nomination polls but had several poor early primary or caucus showings before withdrawing from the race. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 25-26, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 906 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of Republicans and Republican leaners, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey fig-

ures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. The questions reported here were asked of a random half-sample of respondents for 2 nights on the Gallup Daily tracking survey. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Ronald Reagan, and Carter by Edward Kennedy and Jerry Brown. Ford’s job approval rating had reached as low as 37% in 1975, the year before he ran for re-election, and Carter’s had reached 28% in 1979. Obama’s current weekly job approval rating is 44%, albeit with more than two years until the next presidential election. Obama’s strengths among Democrats in the hypothetical matchup with Clinton lie with college graduates and liberals, the latter of whom make up about 36% of this sample of 859 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Clinton does better among less well-educated Democrats and bests Obama among conservatives, who make up 22% of Democrats. Clinton does slightly better among women than among men.

September 30, 2010 OBAMA 52%, CLINTON 37% FOR 2012 DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION Clinton’s support highest among conservative, less well-educated Democrats by Frank Newport If Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were to challenge President Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2012, she would currently have the support of 37% of Democrats nationally, while 52% would support Obama.

Implications

NBC’s “Meet the Press” host David Gregory on Sept. 5 raised the possibility that Clinton might renew her battle against Obama for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, asking outside White House adviser David Plouffe, “Do you envision a primary challenge from another Democrat in 2012 against this president?” Gregory then asked more specifically, “Do you—can you rule out, based on actual information, that Secretary of State Clinton would not pursue the presidency again, would not challenge President Obama?” Clinton was Obama’s main challenger for the 2008 Democratic nomination in a long-fought and, at times, contentious battle. Once Obama clinched the nomination, Clinton and her husband Bill Clinton strongly supported Obama’s nomination, and Hillary Clinton now serves in Obama’s cabinet as secretary of state. President Obama has yet to announce his intentions for 2012, although Harry Truman in 1952 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968 have been the only presidents since Calvin Coolidge to decline to seek reelection when they were eligible to do so. Presidents with relatively low job approval ratings heading into a possible re-election bid are vulnerable to intra-party challenges. As two examples, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter were challenged for their respective parties’ nomination as sitting presidents—Ford by

As is the case for the 2012 Republican nomination, voter sentiments at this stage of the 2012 election cycle have low predictive validity. In late 2006, for example, Gallup polls showed that Clinton led Obama as the choice of Democrats for their party’s nomination, and Rudy Giuliani was tied with John McCain for the Republican nomination (Giuliani pulled further ahead of McCain through most of 2007). Even though most observers assume Obama will run for re-election, from time to time he has said he would be content to be a oneterm president if he accomplished his goals. There is also the very real question of whether Clinton, or any other Democrat, will mount a challenge to Obama as 2012 approaches. That decision will in turn depend in part on Obama’s perceived strengths and job approval ratings next year. These data show that conservative Democrats are the least likely to support Obama when Clinton is his hypothetical opponent, suggesting that Obama may be most vulnerable to a possible challenge from that wing of his party. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 25-26, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 859 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish

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for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the

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March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 01, 2010 IN MIDTERMS, DEMOCRATS GAIN WITH YOUNG VOTERS, SLIP WITH HISPANICS Barely half of Hispanics in September planned to vote Democratic by Lydia Saad Registered voters aged 18 to 29 were more likely in September than in August to favor the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, resulting in the widest generational gaps so far this year in the vote for Congress.

According to the September data, young registered voters favored the Democrats by 55% to 36% over the Republicans—a 19percentage-point margin. That was up from 9 points in August, and contrasts with a 12-point advantage for the Republicans in September among seniors (52% to 40%). While young adults have turned more Democratic in their voting preferences, seniors grew progressively more likely to favor the Republicans in July and August, and maintained that higher support level in September.

Gallup also finds that Democrats did sharply better in the East in September than in any month since the start of Gallup Daily tracking of the vote for Congress. Support for the Democrats in the other three regions was up a bit from where it stood in August, but remained slightly lower than it was earlier in the year. The Democrats trail the Republicans in all regions but the East.

Nationwide, Republicans and Democrats have been closely matched in Gallup’s monthly averages of the vote for Congress this year, although the Republicans enjoyed elevated support in August. The two parties were tied at 46% across the more than 8,000 interviews conducted with registered voters in September.

Hispanics’ Preferences Shift, While Whites’ and Blacks’ Are Stable Hispanic voters’ support for Democratic candidates waned in August and September. As a result, Hispanics in September favored Democrats by a 13-point margin (51% to 38%), compared with 32-point margins in June and July. Whites in September favored Republican over Democratic candidates by a 14-point margin, similar to their support level in most other months this year. The vast majority of blacks continued to favor Democrats.

Bottom Line President Barack Obama’s efforts this week to stir young voters to turn out in November on behalf of his party’s candidates come as Gallup finds support among this group—so important to the Democrats’ success in 2008—improving. Gallup’s September polling suggests that

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young voters remain in the Democrats’ corner, and show increased support at a time when seniors have shifted more to the Republicans. The key question is whether young adults will vote in big enough numbers to offset the impact of the senior vote. The most recent indications on this from Gallup polling are not promising for the Democrats. Hispanics present a different problem for the president’s party. While they voted strongly for Obama in 2008 and were supposed to be one of the building blocks of Democratic victory in 2010, Gallup’s recent polling suggests their support for Democratic congressional candidates is slipping. This is in line with Hispanics’ dwindling approval of Obama as president, with the initial decline seen in May possibly linked to the Democrats’ failure to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Sept. 2-26, 2010, with a random sample of 8,773 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

More Will Retire Later When asked about a target retirement age, 69% intend to retire at age 65 or older—up significantly from 41% in 2005 and 52% in 2007. At the same time, 21% of owners plan to retire between the ages of 60 and 64, while 11% intend to do so prior to age 60—both percentages representing significant declines from 2007.

Fewer Will Retire Comfortably October 01, 2010 NEARLY HALF OF SMALL-BUSINESS OWNERS MAY NEVER RETIRE More than 6 in 10 small-business owners changed retirement plans due to economic downturn by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Nearly half, 47%, of small-business owners now plan to never retire until forced to do so for health reasons—up from about 4 in 10 in 2005 and 2007—according to a recent Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index poll. Another 41% plan to cut back on work but stay involved with their business when they retire. Those planning to stop working in their business altogether fell to 1 in 10 during 2010 from nearly twice that level in 2005.

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Nearly 8 in 10 small-business owners prior to the recession in 2007 thought they would have enough money to live comfortably when they retire. By 2010, fewer than two in three felt that way. At least in part, this may be the result of the damage the recession and financial crisis have done to the assets small-business owners plan to rely on as a major source of income for their retirement. When asked to rate each of a list of 11 different sources of retirement income, small-business owners are most likely to say: a 401(k) or similar account, the value of their business, the equity in their home, and individual stock and stock mutual funds, followed by Social Security. Sixty-two percent of small-business owners look to Social Security as a minor source of retirement, followed by 56% pointing to part-time work and 52% relying on regular savings accounts or CDs.

With his public approval solidly below 50% in September, it follows that less than a majority in most key demographic subgroups approve of the job the president is doing. His staunchest supporters remain blacks (91%), self-identified Democrats (79%), and self-identified liberals (75%). Several other groups, all tending to be Democratic in their political orientation, give Obama approval ratings just above the majority level. These include young adults, Hispanics, Eastern region residents, political moderates, those who are unmarried, those with a postgraduate education, and those in the lowest income bracket. Obama’s approval ratings among whites (36%) and senior citizens (38%) continue to lag those from most other demographic groups. Survey Methods Results for the total data set are based on telephone interviews conducted July 6-12, 2010, with a random sample of 604 small-business owners. Small businesses are defined as companies having between $50,000 and $20 million in revenues or sales. Respondents are selected randomly from a sample provided by Dun & Bradstreet. Results are weighted to be representative of all businesses having $20 million or less in sales or revenues. For results based on the total sample of small-business owners, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 04, 2010 OBAMA APPROVAL AVERAGES 45% IN SEPTEMBER Blacks, Democrats, liberals show greatest support for Obama by Jeffrey M. Jones President Barack Obama’s job approval ratings remain below 50%, with an average 45% job approval score for the president in September. That is a slight improvement from his term-low 44% average in August. More generally, Obama’s approval rating has not exceeded 50% in any month this year. Also, he has not had an approval rating above 50% in any Gallup Daily tracking three-day rolling average since mid-May. These are troubling signs for the Democratic Party as presidents below 50% approval at the time of midterm elections typically see their party lose a substantial number of seats.

Bottom Line Presidents’ approval ratings at the beginning of October in their first midterm election year are generally similar to what they will be at

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the time of the election. Richard Nixon is the only president whose rating improved significantly (from 51% to 58%) in the final weeks leading up to his first midterm election. If Obama’s approval rating does not improve in the coming weeks, his support will be similar to that of Ronald Reagan (42% in 1982) and Bill Clinton (45% in 1994), both of whose parties suffered substantial congressional losses in the midterm election. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking survey Sept. 1-30, 2010, with a random sample of 15,200 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Margins of error for subgroups will be higher. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 04, 2010 GOP WELL POSITIONED AMONG LIKELY MIDTERM VOTERS Voting preferences remain close among registered voters by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad Gallup’s generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup’s first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios. These initial estimates are based on interviews with more than 3,000 national adults, including more than 2,700 registered voters, and more than 1,800 adults who demonstrate a high probability of voting this fall, based on their answers to Gallup’s standard likely voter questions that probe current voting intentions and past voting behavior. Among registered voters interviewed over this period, the parties continue to have rough parity on Gallup’s generic ballot for Con-

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gress, as they have since early September. If all voters turned out at this point, the national vote would be close, with Republicans having the slight edge.

However, not all voters will turn out. For this reason, Gallup identifies the subsample of registered voters most likely to vote in November, employing methods first used in the 1950 midterm elections. These estimates are based on respondents’ answers to seven separate turnout questions. The results are used to assign a “likelihood to vote” score to each registered voter and, in turn, to create hypothetical models of the electorate based on various turnout scenarios. For this initial estimate of those most likely to vote, Gallup has modeled a lower turnout estimate (40%, typical for recent midterm elections) and a higher turnout estimate. In both cases, the Republican share of the vote is above 50% and the Democratic share is 40% or less, underscoring the strong position in which the GOP would find itself were the election held today. Gallup has found Republicans, compared with Democrats, expressing higher levels of enthusiasm about voting and more thought given to the elections throughout 2010. It follows that models in which voting is restricted to those most likely to vote would show Republicans doing disproportionately well. Gallup’s historical election trends suggest that the race often tightens in the final month of the campaign. In September and October 1994, 2002, and 2006, Gallup’s likely voter estimates showed larger margins for the leading party than what the final estimate showed (with the final poll in 2002 moving from a slight Democratic advantage to a Republican lead in the final poll). At this point, four weeks remain until Election Day, and given the already-high levels of Republican enthusiasm, it is possible that Democrats could have relatively greater gains among likely voters over the next month. This history suggests that the likely voter model results at this point should be viewed as describing the current state of affairs, but not as predictive of the final party vote shares on Nov. 2. Within both likely voter pools, Republicans are highly likely to vote for the Republican candidate, and Democrats for the Democratic candidate. Independents in both likely voter models skew strongly toward the Republican candidate. Gallup has found independent reg-

istered voters consistently preferring Republican candidates throughout the campaign. Across both turnout scenarios, the overall vote results reflect the fact that Republicans become a larger part of the sample as turnout shrinks.

October 05, 2010 U.S. JOB CREATION STAGNANT IN SEPTEMBER Job market conditions have been essentially unchanged since May by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Job Creation Index remained at +9 in September—meaning employee hiring and firing perceptions are unchanged from August, and essentially flat for the past five months. The percentage of working Americans who say their companies are hiring has been 28% or 29%, and the percentage saying their employers are letting workers go has been 20% or 21% since May.

Based on statistical modeling of the historical relationship between the national vote and seats, any situation in which the Democrats have less than about 47% of the actual two-party national vote for Congress (i.e., 53% voting for the Republicans and 47% for the Democrats among those voting for one of the two parties) would strongly predict that Republicans would win enough seats to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. If there is a widely disproportionate skew in turnout toward Republican voters and their national vote lead ends up being in the double digits, the Republican gains would be very substantial. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 23-26 and Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2010, with a random sample of 3,037 national adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 2,764 registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 1,882 likely voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents per 1,000 respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Job market conditions are better now than they were at this time a year ago, when 24% of companies were hiring and 24% were letting employees go. They are still, however, far worse than in September 2008, as the first year of the recession was underway, when 35% of companies were hiring while 19% were letting workers go. Job Market Perceptions Worsening in the West In every region of the country, more employees continue to report that their companies are hiring than say their companies are letting employees go. This has been the case since May. However, it is getting to be a close call in the West, which continues to have the poorest job perceptions of any region, with 25% of employers hiring and 23% firing. This reflects a decline from August. Hiring and firing perceptions across the other three regions of the country are similar, with conditions improving slightly in the East and South, and unchanged in the Midwest.

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Job Conditions at State and Local Governments Continue to Suffer; Federal, Not Suffering Federal government employees report hiring and firing on par with the national average (+9). State (-9) and local (-17) government employees report less hiring and comparatively more employees being let go, although the state situation appears less negative than in recent months.

October 05, 2010 IN U.S., NEW HIGH OF 26.3% HAVE GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE The percentage of uninsured in September remains unchanged from recent months by Elizabeth Mendes More American adults reported having government healthcare— Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits—in September (26.3%) than in any previous month since Gallup and Healthways began tracking it in January 2008, at which time the figure stood at 22.5%.

Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day. National results for September are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 16,662 employees. For this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Regional results for August are based on interviews totaling more than 3,000 in each region. For each total regional sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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The increase in government insurance partially offsets the decline in employer-based insurance seen since January 2008—a decline that started in the fall of 2008 as the financial crisis exploded and large-scale layoffs began. The 45.4% of adults who reported they had employer-based coverage in September is statistically unchanged from the summer months, but down from earlier this year, and significantly lower than the 50% who said the same in January 2008. The percentage of Americans without health insurance was 16.1% last month, about on par with the 16.6% in August, but still higher than the 14.8% in January 2008. Gallup asks Americans about their healthcare coverage daily as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index and typically reports monthly and annual findings. The monthly data for September are based on interviews with more than 30,000 Americans. Looking at the data more broadly, the year-to-date average for employer-based coverage is 46% and trending down compared with 2009 and 2008, while the figure for government healthcare is 25.2% and trending up. President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law a little more than six months ago, and various parts of the bill have been trickling into action since. The Gallup trends indicate that the policy changes that have been implemented thus far have yet to significantly alter the pattern of healthcare coverage among Americans. But several provisions of the new healthcare law that will have a direct impact on Americans’ health coverage were initiated at the end of September and include: allowing children up to age 26 to remain on their parents’ plan, outlawing insurers from canceling a person’s coverage if they get sick, and eliminating lifetime dollar limits on coverage. These changes, along with several other provisions that have already been implemented, will over time affect how many Americans get their health insurance from the government or their employer, how many buy it on their own, and how many will

October 06, 2010 PARTY LOYALTY PRIMARY FACTOR IN DEMOCRATIC VOTE IN 2010 Republican voters offer more varied reasons for their vote by Jeffrey M. Jones One in three registered voters who are supporting the Democratic candidate in their congressional district say they are doing so because they “always vote Democratic.” This explanation far exceeds any other when Democratic voters are asked in an open-ended fashion why they are supporting their chosen candidate.

continue to go uninsured. The extent to which the coverage distribution will change is yet to be determined and Gallup will continue to monitor and report on health insurance in the United States. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Sept. 1-30, 2010, with a random sample of 30,248 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Aside from party loyalty, at least 1 in 10 Democratic voters in the Sept. 30-Oct. 3 Gallup poll say they are voting Democratic because they agree with the candidate’s agenda, because they are satisfied with the performance of their Democratic incumbent member of Congress, or because they dislike Republicans. Three percent say they are voting Democratic specifically to help support President Obama. Republican voters’ stated reasons for supporting the GOP congressional candidate are varied, with six different explanations offered by between 10% and 16% of respondents, the most common of which is that they favor the Republican candidate’s agenda. Fifteen percent of Republicans mention party loyalty, a figure half as large as that among Democrats. Republican voters are also more likely than Democratic voters to say they are dissatisfied with their incumbent member’s job performance (11% vs. 3%) and that they are voting for “change” (10% vs. 2%). While most voters’ responses revolve around general evaluations of the candidates or parties, 6% of Republican voters mention the specific issue of government spending as a reason they are casting their ballot for the Republican candidate in their district. Despite the usual strong association between presidential approval and midterm election outcomes at the aggregate level, relatively few Republican voters seem to have President Obama top-ofmind when explaining their probable 2010 vote choice.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Bottom Line Democrats’ greater reliance on party loyalty to explain their vote this year may be another indication of a challenging political environment for their party. Recently, Gallup found many more Democratic voters saying their choice was more a vote for the Democratic candidate than against the Republican candidate, and Republican voters about equally likely to say their vote was for the Republican candidate as to say it was against the Democrat. Typically, the party that attracts a greater share of voters voting against the other party fares better in a midterm election. Indeed, independent voters—particularly those with a high likelihood of voting—seem to be strongly inclined to vote Republican this year. It is not clear whether the vote explanations that Republican and Democratic voters offer this year are typical for a midterm election year. Although Democrats are more likely to mention party loyalty as a reason for their vote, in one respect they are no more likely than Republicans to demonstrate party loyalty: nearly equal percentages of partisans say they are voting for their own party’s candidate this year.

October 06, 2010 SUPREME COURT STARTS TERM WITH 51% APPROVAL High court’s approval rating is down from 2009, but exceeds that of other two branches by Lydia Saad The U.S. Supreme Court begins its 2010-11 term with 51% of Americans approving of the way it handles its job. This is lower than a year ago, when approval surged to 61%, but is similar to the court’s ratings in 2007 and 2008.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2010, with a random sample of 1,531 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 586 registered voters who would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 675 registered voters who would vote for the Republican candidate for Congress, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. 346

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The Supreme Court’s current approval rating is among the lowest Gallup has recorded for the court over the past decade. Its recordlow 42% rating came in June 2005, shortly after the court issued a decision broadening the government’s ability to seize private land. Still, the current rating exceeds approval for President Barack Obama (44%) and Congress (18%) in the same poll, a pattern mirrored in Americans’ trust level in the three branches of government. Last year’s near-record-high approval of the Supreme Court was driven mainly by Democrats—reflecting a partisan shift in views toward the court that accompanied the 2009 transition from a Republican to a Democratic president. It may also have been boosted by

Democrats’ strong support of then-Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, who was seated on the court in the summer of 2009. However, Democrats’ approval of the court has since receded some, as has approval among Republicans and independents. Still, for the second year in a row, Democrats are significantly more positive about the Supreme Court than are Republicans, marking a continued shift from the eight years of the Bush administration.

Obama has appointed two new justices to the Supreme Court. While most observers agree that these appointments have not altered the political balance of the court, in the past year, Americans have become more likely to believe the court is “too liberal.” The percentage saying this rose from 21% in 2008 to 28% in 2009, and 32% in a July/August 2010 USA Today/Gallup poll. Republicans are mainly responsible for this increase, and more than half of them (56%) now consider the court too liberal. The plurality of Americans, however, still consider the court to be “about right” ideologically.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 07, 2010 GALLUP FINDS U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT AT 10.1% IN SEPTEMBER Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of August by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September—up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month—the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September— and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government’s unemployment report on Friday.

Bottom Line A slight majority of Americans approve of the job the Supreme Court is doing as it begins the 2010-2011 session, during which it will look at cases dealing with such potentially fiery issues as free speech, information privacy, and illegal immigrant rights. The public’s assessment of the court is worse than it was a year ago, but this is consistent with the drops also seen in approval of President Obama (from 54% to 44%) and Congress (from 31% to 18%) over the same period. Americans’ satisfaction with the country, more generally, is also down— by 10 percentage points since last September, from 29% to 19%. While the sour national mood may have helped to push the court’s approval rating back to the 50% level, heightened concern among Republicans that the court is too liberal may also be a factor.

Certain groups continue to fare worse than the national average. For example, 15.8% of Americans aged 18 to 29 and 13.9% of those with no college education were unemployed in September.

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The increase in the unemployment rate component of Gallup’s underemployment measure is partially offset by fewer part-time workers, 8.7%, now wanting full-time work, down from 9.3% in August and 9.5% at the end of July.

As a result, underemployment shows a more modest increase to 18.8% in September from 18.6% in August, though it is up from 18.4% in July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to fall below 18.3% this year.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 07, 2010 VIEWS OF GOP’S ABILITY TO GOVERN SIMILAR TO 1994, 2006 Americans are much less optimistic about the Democratic Party now than they were in 2006 by Jeffrey M. Jones While views regarding several facets of Democrats’ ability to govern are down sharply since 2006, views about Republicans remain similar to those from the last midterm elections, when the GOP lost majority control of Congress—but also similar to 1994, when it won majority control. In general, Americans do not rate the Republican Party that highly on any of the four attributes tested, ranging from a low of 32% who think it has a clear plan for solving the country’s problems to a high of 43% who believe it can bring about needed change.

Survey Methods Gallup classifies American workers as underemployed if they are either unemployed or working part time but wanting full-time work. The findings reflect more than 18,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period. Gallup’s results are not seasonally adjusted and tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks. Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Sept. 1-30, 2010, with a random sample of 18,146 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. 348

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Thus, the public does not appear to have a great deal of confidence in the Republican Party’s ability to govern. And these perceptions have not changed much over the years even as voters have rendered very different judgments on the party’s fate in Congress in recent midterm elections. What have changed over the years are Americans’ opinions of the Democratic Party on the same attributes. On all four, Americans were far more positive in their evaluations of the Democratic Party in 2006 than in 1994. An ominous sign for the Democratic Party is that the current results are similar to those from 1994, when Americans ended four decades of Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In general, party groups are now less likely than four years ago to believe the various attributes apply to the Democratic Party, with sharp declines among independents and Republicans on most of these. Most notably, the percentage of independents who believe the

are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Democratic Party can bring about needed change has fallen from 59% in 2006 to 34% today.

October 08, 2010 FOUR IN 10 U.S. WORKERS SAY THEIR COMPANY IS UNDERSTAFFED Relatively few think their company is overstaffed by Frank Newport Even as millions of Americans are searching for work, 38% of those who do have a job say their company is understaffed, while 52% say their company has about the right number of employees. Few American workers believe their company has too many employees.

Bottom Line Polling on voters’ 2010 vote intentions suggests Republicans are within range of taking back control of the U.S. House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. This is surely attributable to the decline in Americans’ perceptions of the Democratic Party in recent years, although this has not been accompanied by a surge in positive perceptions of the GOP. Heading into the elections, Americans view both parties about equally unfavorably. This is yet another indication that potential Republican gains may not indicate a Republican mandate as much as a rejection of the Democrats. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2010, with a random sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents

The relatively high percentage of workers who say their company is understaffed may partly reflect the residual impact of the economic recession, which sharply changed the employment picture in the United States in recent years. Many companies laid workers off, did not hire new workers to replace those who left, or did both. Gallup’s Job Creation Index—based on workers’ reports of employment at their companies—was in negative territory for most of 2009 and the first part of 2010, with workers reporting more firing than hiring. The Index is now back in positive territory, but nowhere near as positive as it was throughout the first half of 2008, before the recession’s impact was fully felt. Given these trends, it may not be surprising that a sizable percentage of workers who still have jobs at this point feel their company is understaffed. This year marks the first time Gallup has asked this question, so there is no trend for comparison to previous time frames in which unemployment was much lower and companies were more steadily hiring. It may be that some percentage of workers will always feel their company is understaffed. At the other end of the spectrum, it may also be that some employees are reluctant to admit that their company is overstaffed, even if they perceive that to be the case. There are few major differences in perceptions of staffing at companies across workers’ demographic categories, including gender, age, education, and income. Workers who perceive that their companies are understaffed tend to be slightly less satisfied with their jobs, more

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stressed, and more likely to feel underpaid—but it is not possible to determine which of these attitudes may be causing the other. Implications Companies may have reached a time of a new normalcy in hiring, attempting to get by with fewer employees than they might have in the past, even as business picks back up. If so, the number of workers who perceive their company to be understaffed may remain at its current level or go even higher in the months and years ahead. On the other hand, the relatively high number of workers who today say their company is understaffed may turn out to be a positive indicator, reflecting a pent-up need for companies to hire more workers, and thus foreshadowing a more positive jobs picture for the future. Gallup will monitor this measure in the future in order to see whether workers’ views of their companies’ relative level of staffing move in sync with employment trends. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 5-8, 2010, with a random sample of 499 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S. who are employed full or part time, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of employed adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 08, 2010 IN U.S., OBESITY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BUT STABLE IN 2010 Black Americans continue to be the most obese group in the United States by Elizabeth Mendes American adults are more likely to be at an unhealthy weight than they are to be at a normal weight, with a combined 62.6% either overweight (36.0%) or obese (26.6%). But obesity levels are steady so far in 2010, with the percentage of Americans who were obese in the third quarter of this year on par with the previous two quarters.

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Another 35.6% of adults were at a normal weight in the third quarter of the year, more than in the first two quarters of 2010, but fewer than in 2008. These findings are based on surveys of 86,664 Americans aged 18 and older, conducted in July through September 2010 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Gallup and Healthways categorize Americans as underweight, normal weight, overweight, or obese according to their Body Mass Index (BMI) scores, which are based on self-reported height and weight. Demographics of the Obese Unchanged To assess the weight situations of various demographic groups, Gallup combined data from January through September 2010. Black Americans, with an average obesity level of 35.8% in 2010 to date, remain one of the more obese groups in the United States, as they were in 2009 and 2008. Americans who make less than $36,000 per year and those aged 45 to 64 follow close behind at 31.3% and 31%, respectively. Asian Americans are still among the least obese at 7.8%—three times less than the national average—and down from 2009. Young adults, those aged 18 to 29, also continue to be among the least likely to be obese, with an obesity level of 18.1%. Obesity levels across other demographic groups are for the most part unchanged in comparison with 2009, though still higher than in 2008. Last year, obesity levels rose by about one percentage point across all demographic groups. This year, the largest increase in any group is 0.5 percentage points, reflecting the stabilization seen in the population overall. Implications The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index tracks Americans’ BMI daily, providing a near real-time estimate of the nation’s weight problem. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported in August of this year that obesity increased in 2009, confirming what Gallup reported in February. Further, Gallup has previously noted and reported on the rise in obesity levels in 2009, as they were increasing. The CDC data are an important and long-trended measure of obesity in the United States, but the Gallup-Healthways data give policymakers and public health officials at the federal, state, and local levels an edge in tracking and understanding the shifts in the numbers of Americans who are normal weight, overweight, and obese as they are happening. Leaders should note that adult obesity has not increased so far in 2010 compared with 2009, not exactly great news, but no change is better than rising obesity. Still, a recent study put the cost of obesity to the U.S. at around $147 billion per year in direct medical costs, and a newly released report found the price tag for obese work-

850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 11, 2010 AMERICANS’ IMAGE OF “FEDERAL GOVERNMENT” MOSTLY NEGATIVE More than 7 in 10 describe government in negative terms by Jeffrey M. Jones

ers to be as much as $73.1 billion per year for employers, highlighting the urgent need to reduce the 26.6% obesity level. The issue of obesity has bounded to the forefront after First Lady Michelle Obama announced in February of this year her nationwide Let’s Move! campaign to combat childhood obesity. Whether Mrs. Obama’s initiative has played a role—big or small—in halting the increase in obesity among U.S. adults this year cannot be known for sure at this point. Gallup, however, will continue to monitor obesity levels, and if longer-term changes are found, the role of the first lady’s program may prove to be an important factor in reducing these levels.

More than 7 in 10 Americans use a word or phrase that is clearly negative when providing a top-of-mind reaction to the federal government. A Sept. 20-21 USA Today/Gallup poll asked respondents what they would say “if someone asked you to describe the federal government in one word or phrase.” The accompanying chart shows the results in graphic form, with the words or phrases displayed according to how frequently they are mentioned.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey July 1-Sept. 30, 2010, with a random sample of 86,664 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Results for 2010 to date are based on interviews with 253,503 national adults conducted Jan. 1-Sept. 30, 2010, and have a margin of sampling error of ±1 percentage point. Margins of error for demographic subgroups will be larger. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and

Overall, 72% of responses about the federal government are negative, touching on its inefficiency, size, corruption, and general incompetence, with the most common specific descriptions being “too big,” “confused,” and “corrupt.” Ten percent of responses are clearly positive, using words such as “good,” while the remaining 18% are neutral or mixed. The generally negative top-of-mind images of the federal government are consistent with the poor ratings the government receives in Gallup’s annual update on the images of business and industry sectors. In the most recent update, from August, 58% rated the federal government negatively and 26% positively. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 20-21, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking sur-

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vey, with a random sample of 981 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Even among specific ideological and political groups the picture is hardly one of consensus and unity. Though conservatives tend to prefer limited government and liberals tend to prefer active government, among each group, slightly above 50% hold those views. In fact, about one in five conservatives indicate they want a fairly active government, and about one in eight liberals indicate they want a more limited one. The plurality of moderates places themselves at the midpoint of the scale, with more tending toward active government than limited government.

The results are largely similar by political party, though independents tend more toward preferring limited rather than active government.

October 12, 2010 AMERICANS’ VIEWS VARY ON HOW ACTIVE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE Party and ideological groups also show range of opinions about government by Jeffrey M. Jones These results are based on a Sept. 13-16 USA Today/Gallup poll designed to help better understand what Americans want the federal government to do at a time of record- or near-record low levels of trust in the nation’s political institutions and in the government’s ability to deal with the problems facing the country.

Bottom Line While Americans have expressed concerns with the Obama administration’s reliance on government to address the problems facing the country, they may be equally uncomfortable with the reaction against government that has emerged in the last two years, as embodied by the Tea Party movement. Rather, opinions are more nuanced. Americans don’t necessarily hold a moderate view of how active government should be—one-third pick the midpoint of a fivepoint scale—but rather array themselves about equally along the continuum. Thus, the answer of how active government should be may not be one that can be answered on a general, philosophical level, but may be decided on more of a case-by-case basis. Gallup will further explore the complex picture of what Americans want their government to do this week on Gallup.com. Survey Methods

The basic conclusion from the five-point scale question is that Americans are hardly unified in their views of what role they want the government to take, but rather array themselves about equally along a continuum ranging from very limited to very active government. Thus, although Americans have generally negative top-of-mind reactions to the federal government as a brand or concept, the minority want government to limit itself to performing only a few basic functions. 352

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Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

These results are based on a Sept. 13-16 USA Today/Gallup poll that explored Americans’ views of government. The vast majority of respondents, 83%, offer at least one specific issue or general direction in response to the open-ended question about what the government is not doing that it should be. Americans’ responses focus mostly on specific domestic issues such as job creation, the economy, government spending, healthcare, taxes, and education. Relatively few mention international issues aside from immigration and bringing the U.S. troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan. The poll also asked the reverse question—what is the federal government currently doing that it should not be doing? Overall, Americans are somewhat less likely to offer a specific response on this question (71% do), with healthcare legislation most commonly mentioned, by 18%. The next-most-common issues or areas in which Americans would like to see the government pull back are government spending, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, tax increases, bailouts of large corporations, and being too involved in business affairs in general.

October 12, 2010 JOB CREATION, SECURING BORDERS TOP LIST OF WHAT GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO Healthcare most often cited as something government is doing that it should not be by Jeffrey M. Jones Creating jobs and securing the country’s borders are most top-ofmind when Americans are asked what the federal government is currently not doing that it should be doing. Americans are also likely to mention that government should focus more on the country’s problems or the people’s problems in general.

Americans’ partisanship to a large degree influences their views of what they want the government to be doing or not doing. For example, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to believe the government should be active in securing the country’s borders and in balancing the federal budget. Meanwhile, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think the government should take action to create jobs and should focus more generally on the problems affecting the people and the country. The one in three Republicans who mention healthcare legislation as something the government is doing but should not be helps make it the top response to that question. Healthcare ranks no better than third among Democrats, with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

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include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

the area in which Democrats are most likely to say the government should not be involved.

October 13, 2010 MAJORITIES IN U.S. VIEW GOVERNMENT AS TOO INTRUSIVE AND POWERFUL Independents largely side with Republicans in denouncing big government by Lydia Saad Record- or near-record-high percentages of Americans are critical of the size and scope of government, as measured by four Gallup trend questions updated in September. This sentiment stretches to 59% of Americans now believing the federal government has too much power, up eight percentage points from a year ago.

Bottom Line Gallup has documented that Americans view the government negatively from a broad perspective, but at the same time, they generally do not want the government to be very limited in its activity. Notably, even the vast majority of those who express a preference for very limited government still offer an opinion of something they think government should be doing that it is not. To a significant degree, people’s opinions about what government should or should not be doing are influenced by their political partisanship. This suggests that they are generally OK with government activity as long as those actions are consistent with their own point of view on how government should address certain issues. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error 354

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Nearly as many Americans also give the antigovernment response to a question asking whether government should do more to solve the country’s problems or whether it is doing too many things that should be left to businesses and individuals. Today’s 58% saying it is doing too much is just slightly below the 59% to 60% levels recorded in the mid- to late ‘90s.

The latest results are based on Gallup’s annual Governance survey, cosponsored this year by USA Today, and conducted Sept. 13-16. Americans are about evenly split over whether the government is overreaching with its regulation of business and industry versus doing too little or the right amount in this area. However, the 49%

Today/Gallup Governance survey, and they turn out to be fairly moderate. On a 5-point scale ranging from extreme activism on the part of government to extreme minimalism, Americans are evenly distributed around the midpoint, with relatively few picking either extreme. Thus emerges a picture of a populace that wants a certain amount of government involvement in promoting the wellbeing of Americans—certainly not too much, but also not too little. Survey Methods

now saying there is too much government regulation is the highest seen in the past decade. Americans continue to disagree rather than agree that the federal government poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens. However, the current 51% to 46% split on this question represents the narrowest margin since Gallup first asked it in 2003.

Independents Join Republicans in Rebuking Government Solid majorities of Republicans are critical of government on all four government role questions reviewed here, while equally large majorities of Democrats defend the government’s size and influence. Consistent with independents’ ongoing preference for Republican congressional candidates this year, majorities of independents side with Republicans in saying the government has too much power, is doing too many things, and is going too far with regulation of the private sector. Independents are divided at 49% to 49% over whether the government represents an immediate threat to citizens’ liberty.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 13, 2010 AMERICANS CHOOSE MIDDLE OVER EXTREMES ON GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONS Views lean toward “more responsibility” rather than less for 7 of 11 functions tested by Frank Newport

Bottom Line An expanded proportion of Americans in 2010 believe the government has overstepped its bounds—growing too intrusive and too powerful. Also, nearly half now consider the government a threat to individual liberty. However, the boundaries Americans want government to operate within are well described in the 2010 USA

Americans are more likely to choose middle-ground responses rather than extremes when asked about the degree of responsibility the federal government should take for a number of social and economic functions it could in theory perform. For only two functions—protecting Americans from foreign threats and protecting consumers from unsafe products—does a majority say the government should be totally responsible. These results are based on Gallup’s annual Governance survey, cosponsored this year by USA Today and conducted Sept. 13-16. Americans were asked to rate each of 11 government functions on a 5-point scale, anchored at one end by the view that the federal government should have no responsibility for a given function, and on the other end by the view that the government should have total responsibility for the function.

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Americans tend to use the middle 2, 3, and 4 points on the 5point scale in their answers, avoiding the two extreme end points. This suggests that Americans are not monolithically set in stone in their views of the role of their federal government, but instead recognize that the government has some responsibility, even if limited, in most areas of society. Overall, a majority of Americans give a 4 or a 5 rating for 7 out of the 11 functions tested, meaning that their views for each of these range toward the “more responsibility” end of the scale rather than the “less responsibility” end. These seven functions include foreign threats, protection against unsafe products, preventing discrimination, protecting the environment, developing and maintaining the nation’s transportation system, making sure Americans have healthcare, and making sure all who want jobs have them. The only function on which a majority of Americans give a 1 or a 2 rating is “protecting major U.S. corporations that are in danger of going out of business.” Democrats More Likely to Say Government Should Be Responsible Today’s political environment is highly partisan, making it less than surprising to find sharp partisan differences in views on the responsibility that the federal government should have for the 11 functions tested in this research. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to give a 4 or a 5 rating (that is, responses on the “more responsibility” end of the scale) to all of the functions except one—protecting Americans from foreign threats. The gap between Democrats and Republicans on one additional function—upholding moral standards—is one percentage point. The partisan gap is largest on the healthcare dimension, with 84% of Democrats placing themselves on the “more responsibility”

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end of the scale, compared with 32% of Republicans. Other functions with a 30 point or higher partisan gap include: providing a minimal standard of living for all, protecting the environment from human actions, and making sure that all who want jobs have them. These data underscore the general conclusion that Democrats are significantly more inclined to see government as being responsible for addressing or ameliorating society’s problems than are Republicans. Views of the government’s role in protecting the country from foreign threats and upholding moral standards provide the lone exceptions. Implications Americans today see the federal government neither as an entity that should be totally responsible for protecting and providing for its citizens, nor as an entity that should have no responsibility for these functions. Instead, the public tends to operate in a “middle zone,” believing that while government should have at least some responsibility for many functions, it is not to be totally responsible. Much of the current debate on the role of government has been focused on the actions of conservatives and Tea Partiers who argue for a much more limited government, and also on the actions of President Obama and Democratic leaders who argue that government has a major responsibility for helping solve society’s problems. These data suggest that the American public, taken as a whole, operates somewhere in the middle between these two extreme perspectives. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019

October 14, 2010 AMERICANS STILL TRUST OWN JUDGMENT MORE THAN POLITICIANS’ Both trust levels continue to drift downward by Frank Newport Americans continue to have more trust in themselves to make judgments under the country’s democratic system than they do in the men and women who are in political life, with 69% of Americans expressing “a great deal” or “a fair amount” of trust in the former, and 47% in the latter.

This year’s readings on both measures are the lowest in Gallup’s history of asking these questions, and reflect a continuing general downward drift in trust over the last three decades.

adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

When Gallup first asked both questions in April 1974, Congress was embroiled in the Watergate investigation that culminated in President Richard Nixon’s resignation a few months later. Public sentiment about the men and women in political life and Americans’ own judgment was significantly higher than it is today, at 68% and 83%, respectively. Trust in politicians is now 21 percentage points lower than it was then, and Americans’ trust in themselves is 14 points lower. Implications These two questions speak to issues at the heart of the system of representative democracy in this country. The people of the United States are in ultimate charge of the political system, but they exercise that control indirectly for the most part, through electing their congressional representatives and the president. Despite this system of representation, Americans have consistently over the last 36 years expressed more trust in themselves to make judgments “under our democratic system about the issues facing our country” than they do in the men and women in political life who represent them.

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Gallup’s question does not define “men and women in political life” in any detail, so respondents may have answered it with stateand local-level politicians, as well as national politicians, in mind. Gallup data show that Americans are generally more positive about the political system at state and local levels than nationally. The question results may thus reflect a higher trust level than would be the case if the question had specified “national” politicians. The question also includes a reference to men and women who are “running for” political office, which, in the current political election environment—with its ubiquitous negative ads and personal attacks—may have affected respondents’ answers. And it would perhaps not be surprising to find Americans expressing more trust in themselves than in other people, regardless of who these others might be. Still, the responses to these two questions suggest that, as far as the average American is concerned, politicians would do well to heed the sentiments of the average citizens they represent—since Americans appear to trust their own judgment more than they do the judgment of their elected representatives. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 14, 2010 AMERICANS’ WELLBEING DROPS TO 2010 LOW Wellbeing down for fourth straight month, but still matching pre-recession levels by Dan Witters Americans’ wellbeing fell for the fourth straight month in September to 66.4 after reaching an all-time high of 67.4 in May. The current Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index score, however, slightly

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exceeds the 65.9 measured in September 2008 at the start of the financial crisis.

These findings are based on approximately 30,000 interviews conducted each month with Americans, aged 18 years and older, as a part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The index is composed of six sub-indexes that include 55 individual items that collectively measure Americans’ physical, emotional, and fiscal wellbeing. Life Evaluation Slips to Lowest Point Since August 2009 Fewer Americans evaluated their lives positively in September, sending the Life Evaluation Index and the overall Well-Being Index scores lower. The Life Evaluation Index score dropped slightly in September to 48.4, its lowest point since August 2009 (47.8) and lower than the comparable month in year-over-year trending for the first time since March 2009. However, the 2010 scores remain well above the low point of 33.1 in November 2008.

The Life Evaluation Index is based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks people to evaluate their present and future lives on a ladder scale, with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where 0 is the worst possible life and 10 is the best possible life. Americans’ evaluations about their lives today, rather than their anticipation for the future, are driving down the Life Evaluation Index score. This is common because future life ratings tend to remain more stable over time. Bottom Line Americans’ wellbeing is now clearly in decline, after reaching new highs in the late spring and early summer of this year. Some of this decline can be explained by the seasonal effects of fall during which

people tend to exercise less, eat less fresh produce, and report more cases of cold and flu, topics that future articles will explore. Rising anxiety regarding the pace of economic recovery could be a factor in the recent erosion in life evaluation, a measure that tends to relate to economic conditions. Despite the decline, however, wellbeing scores continue to track better than in 2008, positive news amid a slow recovery from the recession. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2, 2008-Sept. 30, 2010, with a random sample of nearly 1 million adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 15, 2010 OBAMA PERFORMING WELL RELATIVE TO CONGRESS’ LOW RATINGS Obama’s 26-point average lead in approval is high versus past presidents’ margins by Lydia Saad Since he took office, President Barack Obama’s job approval ratings have averaged 26 percentage points higher than Congress’ approval ratings in surveys where both were measured at the same time. This is a greater presidential approval edge than what Gallup found for four of the previous five presidents, with the exception being the elder George Bush. More specifically, across 21 polls conducted since Obama took office in which Gallup measured both presidential and congressional job approval, 52% of Americans approved of Obama and 26% approved of Congress—a 26-point gap. George W. Bush’s average lead in approval over Congress during his eight years in office was

11 points, 49% to 38%. Bill Clinton had an average 18-point edge and Ronald Reagan a 14-point edge. By contrast, the elder George Bush’s average approval rating was 30 points higher than Congress’ approval rating in seven contemporaneous readings of the two measures conducted between 1990 and 1992. It should be noted that congressional approval was measured fairly infrequently prior to 1993, and thus, the average ratings calculated for presidents Carter, Reagan, and George H.W. Bush are based on relatively few cases. However, Gallup initiated more frequent updates of the measure in 1993 and implemented monthly updates in 2001—thus providing robust comparative statistics for the Clinton, G.W. Bush, and Obama presidencies. A Steady Picture From 2009-2010 Obama’s average 26-point approval lead over Congress is typical of the size of the individual Obama-congressional approval gaps measured during the past two years. Most recently, Obama had a 45% job approval rating in Gallup’s early October Crime poll, compared with Congress’ 21% approval rating—a 24-point gap.

Bottom Line Today and throughout his time in office, President Obama has received a substantially higher approval rating from the American people than has Congress. The average 26-point gap between the two thus far into Obama’s term is substantially higher than Gallup has found during most recent administrations. Obama’s approval ratings have also been running substantially higher than Americans’ satisfaction with the direction of the country. Currently 21% of Americans are satisfied, identical to congressional approval. Given all this, it appears that Obama is performing above par relative to the broader negative political climate, although the reason is not clear. His approval rating has been below 50% for most of this year—not good for his party heading into midterm elections—but

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given that Congress’ ratings are hovering around 20%, it could be much worse. Some Democratic candidates have avoided associating their campaigns with President Obama and even shunned presidential visits to their districts. But Americans’ anger seems directed more at Congress than at Obama, and given Obama’s continued high approval from members of his own party, it is likely that he could, at the very least, be effective at motivating the Democratic base to turn out. Survey Methods The latest results are from a Gallup poll based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 15, 2010 AMERICANS DISAGREE ON HOW TO FIX ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS Do not provide a mandate for raising taxes or cutting benefits to address economic problems by Lymari Morales More than three in four Americans believe the cost of the government’s major entitlement programs, including Social Security and Medicare, will create major economic problems for the U.S. in the next 25 years if no changes are made to them. At the same time, Americans do not provide a mandate for raising taxes or cutting benefits to address the situation. While fewer than half of Americans say they favor raising taxes or cutting benefits to address the economic problems they foresee from the government’s major entitlement programs, 62% do support one approach or the other. Specifically, 12% favor both options, 30% favor a tax increase but not benefit cuts, and 20% favor benefit cuts

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but not a tax increase. Still, the data show that there is little consensus on how to address a problem most Americans see looming, and more than one-third of Americans (35%) oppose both options. Social Security alone, the federal government’s largest single program, is expected to pay $703 billion in benefits this year to nearly 53 million Americans. The Social Security Administration says costs will exceed revenues in 2010 and 2011, and every year beginning in 2015—so much so that it will become unable to pay full benefits in 2037. Social Security and Medicare outlays are each up about 5% this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index also suggests a growing crunch on resources, having found more Americans on Medicare and Medicaid in September than in any month since it began tracking insurance coverage in January 2008. While large majorities of Americans in every subgroup say the cost of the government’s major entitlement programs will cause major problems, those under 50 and Republicans express the most widespread concern. Democrats are most likely to favor raising taxes and Republicans most likely to favor a cut in benefits.

Increasing Social Security taxes and reducing initial benefits are two of five approaches the CBO has identified to manage the shortfall in that program. Increasing benefits for low earners, increasing the full retirement age, and reducing cost-of-living adjustments applied to continuing benefits are the others. A Gallup poll conducted in July asked about potential options to address Social Security’s balance sheet, and found only minority support for increasing the retirement age, or for increasing Social Security taxes or reducing benefits unless those changes were limited to the wealthy. Gallup has not asked about cost-of-living adjustments, which the government Friday announced would not be made for a second straight year due to low inflation, as measured by the U.S. Consumer Price Index, stemming from the weak economic climate.

Implications While few Americans name Social Security specifically as one of the most important problems facing the country today, the vast majority of Americans agree that the government’s major entitlement programs are likely to cause major economic problems in the next 25 years. Americans’ views on the topic are particularly noteworthy in a climate in which there is little consensus about what the government should be fully responsible for—including providing a minimum living standard for all—and a high level of concern about government debt. Americans under 50 are most likely to foresee major economic problems for these programs, but even they do not express a strong mandate to raise taxes or cut benefits as a solution. Nonetheless, the need for action is clear, considering that more non-retirees in 2010 than in 2007 said they expect to rely on Social Security as a major source of income in retirement, and at the same time 60% already do not expect Social Security to be able to pay them a benefit once they retire. Legislators should note that while the issue is a widespread source of concern and draws clear political battle lines, Americans aren’t clamoring for the main options on the table.

October 18, 2010 REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS SHIFT ON WHETHER GOVERNMENT IS A THREAT Republicans more likely to view government as threat now, Democrats more likely in 2006 by Jeffrey M. Jones Overall, 46% of Americans believe the federal government “poses an immediate threat to the rights and freedoms of ordinary citizens,” little changed from the prior reading in 2006. However, during that time, Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of the government as a threat have shifted dramatically.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The results suggest that Americans’ perceptions of the government as a threat may be less dependent on broader, philosophical views of government power, and instead have more to do with who is wielding that power. Throughout the Bush administration, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to perceive the government as a threat. Now that a Democratic president is in office, the reverse is true. Since 2003, when the question was first asked, independents’ views have been more consistent, although independents have been somewhat more likely to perceive the government as a threat since 2006 than they were before that year.

The increase in the percentage of independents believing the government is a threat has helped to push the overall percentage of Americans holding this view to new highs in 2006 and 2010. Gallup this year for the first time asked Americans who believe the government is a threat to explain the ways in which they see this occurring. Many of the responses were fairly general in nature—the government is too big, too involved in people’s private lives, or is socialist. However, some mention very specific reasons, such as perceived violations of their First and Second Amendment rights, and the healthcare law. The reasons people give for viewing the government as a threat would likely differ if the question were asked while a Republican was in the White House, given that relatively few Democrats currently

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are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 19, 2010 BILL CLINTON’S IMPACT MORE POSITIVE FOR DEMOCRATS THAN OBAMA’S Obama’s impact significantly more negative among independents by Frank Newport view government as a threat and their ideas about the types of threats government could pose are likely not the same as Republicans’. Implications Americans who see the government as a threat today are very different politically from the people who did so four years ago. Gallup has previously documented similar shifts in the way partisans view national conditions when the party of the president changes. This phenomenon extends even to measures of Americans’ own lives. The partisan shift in views of government as a threat may explain why there hasn’t been a large increase since 2006 in the overall percentage viewing the government as a threat, even as the federal government under both George W. Bush and Barack Obama has been more active in trying to solve the problems confronting the nation. While Republicans may see higher taxes or government involvement in healthcare as threatening to individual rights and freedoms, Democrats may not. On the other hand, Democrats may see involvement in wars or anti-terrorism activities as threatening, while Republicans may not. In other words, people’s perceptions of the government as a threat may not be based as much on how much it is doing but rather on what it is doing.

Former President Bill Clinton has the potential to do more good for Democratic candidates on whose behalf he campaigns than does President Barack Obama. The net positive impact of Clinton’s campaigning among Democratic registered voters is +48, while the number is a slightly lower +42 for Obama. Clinton, however, has a significantly more positive impact than Obama does among independents—and among Republicans.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents

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Voters were asked in Gallup’s Oct. 14-17 poll to indicate whether Clinton’s or Obama’s campaigning in their area on behalf of a local candidate would be a plus, would be a minus, or would make no difference. The “net impact” score is based on subtracting the percentage who said such campaigning would make them less likely to vote for the candidate in question from the percentage who said it would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. While Clinton does modestly better than Obama among Democrats, his net positive impact becomes comparatively larger compared with Obama’s among independents and Republicans. This almost certainly reflects the fact that Clinton has been out of office for 10 years, and thus has become a more benign figure to those who are independent or who identify with the Republican Party. Obama, of

course, is the current Democratic president, and thus more likely to generate strong feelings at this point in his career. Among independents, Clinton’s impact breaks about even, while Obama’s is -27, a net negative, with 39% saying Obama would make them less likely to vote for a candidate and 12% saying he would make them more likely to do so. Few Republicans say either of these Democratic politicians would make them more likely to vote for a candidate for whom the politician campaigned. But, while 71% say Obama would turn them in the opposite direction, 46% of Republicans say this about Bill Clinton. Implications President Obama, former President Clinton, and other high-visibility politicians are out on the campaign trail at this point in the election cycle primarily to increase enthusiasm and turnout among the faithful who are already inclined to vote for their party’s candidate. Indeed, in Gallup polling, most Democrats say they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Thus, given that around half of Democrats say either Obama or Clinton would make them more likely to vote for a local candidate, there appears to be some value to their party in having the two campaign—assuming the “more likely to vote” sentiment translates into motivation and enthusiasm about actually casting a ballot. The data make it clear that Clinton is in a position to have at least a modestly more positive net impact on a House, Senate, or gubernatorial campaign than Obama. Clinton generates a slightly higher self-reported “more likely to vote” response among Democrats. He also generates a substantially more positive impact among independents and Republicans. Of course, few Republicans are going to vote for a Democratic candidate in any case. It is possible, however, that Obama’s negative impact as recorded in these data could have the effect of increasing GOP voters’ motivation to vote when Obama campaigns in a given district or state. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17, 2010, with a random sample of 935 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 19, 2010 U.S. SATISFACTION ON PACE TO BE LOWEST IN MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR Twenty-one percent of Americans satisfied with way things are going in U.S. by Jeffrey M. Jones Gallup finds 21% of Americans satisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. If that figure does not improve considerably in the next two weeks, it would be the lowest level of U.S. satisfaction Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election in more than 30 years of tracking this measure.

The latest results are based on an Oct. 7-10, 2010, Gallup poll. Gallup will measure satisfaction once more before the midterm in its final pre-election poll the weekend before the election, but the prospects for change seem slim. Satisfaction has registered in a narrow range from 19% to 21% since July, after descending from a 2010 high of 27% in April. A comparison of Gallup satisfaction ratings with the outcome of midterm elections suggests Americans tend to punish the president’s party when they are highly dissatisfied with the state of the nation at the time of a midterm election. In the four recent midterm elections in which satisfaction has been below 40%, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in the U.S. House. This includes losses of 30 seats in 2006 and 53 in 1994 when one party controlled both houses of Congress and the presidency. The 1990 election was an exception to the general pattern, likely due to President George H.W. Bush’s popularity at that time.

That pattern of steep Congressional losses for the president’s party when Americans are dissatisfied appears likely to occur in 2010 as well. Gallup’s latest estimates on 2010 voting preferences show voters strongly favoring Republican candidates.

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Indeed, among registered voters dissatisfied with the state of the nation, 58% currently prefer the Republican candidate for Congress and 33% the Democratic candidate. The preference for Republican candidates among those who are dissatisfied is due in part to the fact that Republicans are much less likely to be satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. (5%) than are Democrats (34%). Currently, 19% of independents are satisfied. Not surprisingly, independents are also showing a strong preference for voting Republican this year.

October 20, 2010 PELOSI’S FAVORABLE RATING AS SPEAKER DROPS TO 29%, A NEW LOW Nearly 6 in 10 independents now view her unfavorably by Lydia Saad Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s favorable rating is down seven percentage points since May to 29%, a new low for her since assuming the top congressional post.

Bottom Line On Election Day, Americans’ satisfaction with the state of the nation likely will be the lowest Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election. While low for a midterm election year, and low from a broader historical perspective, it would not be the lowest Gallup has ever measured. The all-time low rating of satisfaction was 7% in October 2008. In the presidential election that occurred shortly after that historical low point, Americans elected Barack Obama to the presidency and expanded the majority Democrats won in Congress during the 2006 elections. Now, with satisfaction still lagging two years later, Obama and the Democrats face the possibility of losing much of the Congressional gains the party made the last two election cycles. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Pelosi’s ratings were 2-to-1 positive, 44% to 22%, when she first assumed the speakership in January 2007, but they became closely divided by March of that year and remained so in November 2008. Views became more negative than positive for the first time in the first half of 2009, possibly because of Pelosi’s public stance against the CIA’s use of “enhanced interrogation” of terrorist suspects at Guantanamo Bay prison, and her dispute with the CIA over whether she had been briefed on the matter. Spanning the period these issues were in the news, her favorable rating fell from 42% to 32%. Pelosi’s favorable rating recovered slightly in the first half of 2010 to 36%, but it has since tumbled to the new low. Independents in particular have become more negative about Pelosi, with her favorability dwindling nine points among this group since May, to 21%. Nearly 6 in 10 independents (58%) now view her unfavorably, compared with 86% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats.

Pelosi’s negative image is apparently not simply a reflection of Americans’ dissatisfaction with the leadership in Washington, or with the economic climate more generally. President Obama’s favorable rating has also declined (the new figure will be released later this week), but continues to register well above Pelosi’s. The new poll also finds Pelosi significantly more unpopular with Americans than House Republican Leader John Boehner. Boehner

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is less well-known than Pelosi (58% of Americans have an opinion of him compared with 85% for Pelosi), but among those who know him, Boehner’s image is generally balanced: 27% view him favorably vs. 31% unfavorably. Boehner’s ratings are largely unchanged this year, although they are slightly more negative now than in 2009 as he has become more familiar to Americans.

are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 20, 2010 PALIN’S NOD A PLUS WITH REPUBLICANS, MINUS WITH INDEPENDENTS Negative impact on independents is less than Obama’s Pelosi is still more popular than former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was at his lowest point, however just barely. Gingrich’s worst favorable rating was recorded in April 1997, when 24% of Americans viewed him favorably and 62% unfavorably. It should be noted that Pelosi had a lower favorable rating in 2003 (23%) than she does currently, but that was at a time when the majority of Americans were not familiar with her, and her unfavorable rating was also low—registering 18% to 19%. The net view of Pelosi today is -27 (her favorable minus unfavorable ratings), worse than any prior reading on her.

by Lymari Morales Sarah Palin’s impact on Republican voters is more positive than negative, with 40% of registered Republicans saying they would be more likely to vote for a local candidate for whom she campaigns and 9% less likely to. At the same time, the impact of her campaigning is more negative than positive for independent voters—and overwhelmingly negative for Democratic voters.

Bottom Line Pelosi’s image has gone from bad to worse in recent months, with independents, in particular, growing more critical of her. Her resulting 2-to-1 negative to positive image presents a challenge for congressional Democrats as they try to convince voters to send them back to Washington for another term. While President Obama may be of some benefit on the campaign trail in terms of firing up the Democratic base to turn out, Pelosi’s subdued favorability among Democrats and highly negative image among independents suggest she is a far riskier person for Democratic candidates to be associated with—something Republicans who are using her in ads against their opponents have already concluded. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17, 2010, with a random sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents

Palin’s 31-percentage-point net positive impact on Republican voters is easily less than Bill Clinton’s 48-point net positive impact and Barack Obama’s 42-point net positive impact on Democratic voters. In this sense she is less of an asset to Republican candidates than the marquee Democratic campaigners are to Democratic candidates. On the other hand, her campaigning on behalf of a candidate is less likely to have a negative impact on independent voters than Obama’s, -16 vs. -27. Also, Palin’s -68 point net negative impact on Democratic voters is on par with Obama’s -69 net negative impact on Republican voters. The results are from a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 14-17, just before the former Alaska governor began a two-week road trip to campaign on behalf of Tea Party candidates leading up to the midterm congressional elections. Not surprisingly, Palin’s positive influence is greater among conservative Republicans than among moderate and liberal Republicans, including independents who lean Republican. Among conservative Republicans—62% of whom are Tea Party supporters—44% say

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Palin’s campaigning on behalf of a local candidate would make them more likely to vote for that candidate, and 6% say it would make them less likely to do so. This 38-point net positive impact narrows to 7 points among moderate and liberal Republicans, 25% of whom say Palin’s campaigning would make them more likely to vote for a candidate and 18% of whom say it would make them less likely to do so. Implications While Palin’s influence on Republican voters as a whole is more positive than negative, the concentration of this influence among conservative Republicans underscores the risk factor she brings to the campaign trail. Although her influence on moderate and liberal Republicans is more positive than negative, this is true to a much smaller degree and is more than doubly outweighed by her negative impact on independents. This reality is likely already clear to Republican candidates who have chosen not to appear with Palin on her trips through their area. Overall, Palin appears to be less of a helpful force on the campaign trail for Republicans than Obama and Clinton are for Democrats. While Palin’s influence on independents is less negative than Obama’s, the finding that Palin turns off Democrats as much as Obama turns off Republicans is certainly one to consider as Palin mulls the viability of a presidential run in 2012. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17, 2010, with a random sample of 935 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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October 21, 2010 OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING AT NEW LOW IN MOST RECENT QUARTER His favorable rating and re-elect figures are also at new lows by Jeffrey M. Jones Barack Obama averaged 44.7% job approval during the seventh quarter of his presidency. His average approval rating has declined each quarter since he took office, falling by more than two percentage points in the most recent quarter to establish a new low.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking surveys conducted from July 20-Oct. 19, including interviews with more than 90,000 Americans. The seventh quarter included Obama’s new low three-day average approval rating of 41% in mid-August. His approval rating has recovered somewhat since then, with his latest three-day average at 46% for Oct. 17-19 interviewing. Obama’s seventh-quarter average ranks on the low end of comparable averages among the nine presidents since Eisenhower, although it is similar to that of several of the more recently elected presidents, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton.

Obama’s decreased popularity is also evident in his favorable rating, updated in an Oct. 14-17 Gallup poll. For the first time, more Americans view the president unfavorably (50%) than favorably (47%), and his favorable rating is the lowest of his presidency. His all-time low favorable rating of 42% came in Gallup’s initial measurement of Obama in December 2006, at which time 47% did not know enough about him to give an opinion and 11% viewed him unfavorably. As he became more well-known over the course

of the 2008 presidential campaign his favorable rating gradually rose and hit a high of 78% in January 2009 just prior to his taking office. Since his inauguration, positive opinions of him have declined by 31 points. The Oct. 14-17 Gallup poll also finds that, at this point in his presidency, 39% of Americans believe Obama deserves re-election and 54% say he does not. Earlier this year, between 46% and 48% of Americans said Obama should be re-elected. The current results for Obama are remarkably similar to what Gallup measured for Clinton in October 1994, at which time 38% of Americans thought he was worthy of a second term as president and 57% disagreed. That was just before Clinton’s party lost its congressional majority in the 1994 elections, but two years later voters re-elected Clinton by a comfortable margin. By comparison, in September 2002, 62% of Americans thought George W. Bush deserved re-election. Two years after his party’s strong showing in the 2002 midterms, Bush won a narrow victory over John Kerry in the 2004 presidential election.

850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 22, 2010 RE-ELECTION MEASURES CONTINUE TO PREDICT MAJOR HOUSE SHAKEUP Majority of voters say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election by Frank Newport

Implications With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, Obama’s diminished public support means the Democratic Party is vulnerable to heavy losses in Congress. The president’s party has lost an average of 36 U.S. House seats when his approval rating is below 50%. However, both Clinton and Reagan were in similar poor standing at this point in their presidencies, and both recovered in time to win second terms as president.

Voters are not quite as negative now as they were earlier this year when asked if most members of Congress deserve re-election, with 33% saying they do, and 56% saying they do not. Still, the current sentiment about re-electing most members of Congress remains among the most negative Gallup has measured before midterm elections over the past 16 years, and continues to suggest the potential for a major shift in House seats on Election Day, Nov. 2.

Survey Methods Results for President Obama’s approval rating are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking July 20-Oct. 19, 2010, with a random sample of 91,762 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Results for the favorable and deserves re-election ratings are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17, 2010 with a random sample of 1,029 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and

Democrats currently control the House of Representatives, so it follows that Democratic registered voters are more likely than Republican voters to say most members deserve re-election. In the Oct. 14-17 Gallup poll, 59% of Democratic registered voters say

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most members deserve re-election, compared with 21% of Republicans. At 23%, independents’ views are consistent with those of Republicans. One reason for the modest uptick among all registered voters on this measure is the increase in positive responses among Democrats over the last several months. At one point in June, 45% of Democrats said most members deserved re-election, compared with 59% now. The percentage of Republicans who agree is also higher now than it was in March of this year, although little changed from May and June.

Regardless of the small fluctuations on this measure this year, the overall percentage saying most members deserve re-election remains well below 40%, a threshold that historically has been associated with major seat turnover in Congress. In the polls closest to the 1994 and 2006 midterms, 38% of voters said most members deserved re-election. In both of those years, the majority party lost a significant number of seats and control of the House. The current 33% reading thus can be interpreted as a signal of significant pending change as voters operationalize these sentiments in the voting booth on Election Day.

Voters More Positive About “Your” Member of Congress Registered voters are consistently more positive about re-electing their own member of Congress than they are about re-electing most members of Congress—a local versus national phenomenon that also occurs when the public is asked about such things as healthcare, education, and crime. Currently, 51% say their member deserves re-election, while 31% disagree. All four 2010 readings on this measure are the lowest of any midterm year since Gallup began systematically measuring this variable 18 years ago. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say their member deserves re-election, although the margin is not as large as in response to the “most members” question. 368

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Democrats are now slightly more positive in response to this question than they were earlier this year. Republicans became more negative in June, compared with a particularly high reading among GOP identifiers in May, and have remained at that level since. Implications The percentage of voters saying most members of Congress deserve re-election is 33%—below the levels measured in 1994 and 2006, years that brought about significant change in the partisan composition of Congress. These data provide more evidence that the Nov. 2 elections will bring about a significant decrease in the number of Democrats—the current majority party—in the House. Republicans and independents are substantially less likely than Democrats to say most members of Congress deserve re-election, which fits the ongoing body of evidence showing that non-Democrats express the greatest desire for changing control of Congress. At the same time, with the approaching elections, Democrats are now more likely than they were at times earlier this year to say most members deserve re-election, no doubt reflecting their growing focus on the elections and what is at stake. Despite larger currents of change, the majority of incumbents usually are returned to Congress election after election, and these data confirm the historical finding that American voters look more kindly upon their own representative than they do on Congress as a body. Still, just slightly more than half of registered voters say their member deserves re-election, a figure that all year has been lower than in previous midterms over the past 16 years. This too reinforces the conclusion that it is a tough year for anyone connected with Congress, local or national. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct 14-17, 2010, with a random sample of 935 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 22, 2010 DEMOCRATS, GOP AT ODDS OVER HARM OF UNREGULATED BUSINESS But majorities in all parties agree that business is more efficient than government

Democrats, independents, and Republicans agree that in general, businesses can do things more efficiently than government.

Similarly, more than 7 in 10 Americans across party lines believe there are some functions, such as building roads or funding research, that the government needs to pay for because there are no incentives for private institutions to do so.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Democrats and Republicans differ sharply over whether business will harm society if it is not regulated by government. Two in three Democrats believe business will do so, versus 23% of Republicans who say the same. Independents are split on the issue, as are Americans overall. Bottom Line

The Sept. 13-16, 2010, USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans about other issues relating to the interplay of business and government, and found similar partisan splits on the issue of the relative fairness of government as opposed to that of business. While 63% of Democrats feel government is fairer and more just than business in the way it does things, 78% of Republicans hold the opposite view. In this instance, independents tend to side more with the Republicans. Parties Agree That Business Is More Efficient Than Government Although there are also partisan differences in views of the relative efficiency of business versus government, at least a majority of

In recent months, many business leaders have voiced concerns that many in government are anti-business. Regardless of whether this is true, it appears that the large majority of Democrats—the party currently in power—believe business will actually do harm to society if it is not regulated by government, a viewpoint that perhaps reflects to some degree the fallout from the recession and financial debacle of the past several years. Americans as a whole are split over their fear that business will do harm if not regulated, with 45% agreeing and 53% disagreeing. At the same time, 60% of Americans overall disagree with the idea that government is fairer and more just than business in the way it does things, compared with 36% who agree with this statement. Most Americans also feel that businesses can do things more efficiently than government can. These views align with the recent rise in Americans’ perceptions that the government has too much power. Business leaders, however, might take some solace in the fact that just as many Americans see government as a threat (46%) as see business in that way (45%). These aspects of public opinion are vital to the ongoing debate over the best balance between business and government to create jobs.

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Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 25, 2010 CONSUMERS ISSUE A CAUTIOUS CHRISTMAS SPENDING FORECAST Average $715 shoppers plan to spend is similar to October 2009 forecast

The muted nature of this year’s decline is reflected in consumers’ own evaluations of their spending changes. According to the Oct. 710 poll, 27% of Americans intend to spend less on Christmas gifts this year than what they spent last Christmas—higher than the 11% who now say they will spend more, but down from the 35% and 33% in 2008 and 2009 saying they would spend less. Prior to the recent recession, Americans were much more closely divided over whether their holiday spending would exceed or trail their spending of the prior year, while more said their spending would be “about the same.”

Gallup will update this measure in early November and again in early December. The December forecast has historically been a strong indicator of the direction of holiday retail sales, forecasting the extent to which sales will be higher or lower than the previous year. The October figure is not always predictive of the December forecast, however. In 2002, consumers’ estimates of how much they would spend increased between October and December; in 2007 and 2008, their estimates decreased, while in 2009, they stayed about the same.

by Lydia Saad Gallup’s initial measure of Americans’ 2010 Christmas spending intentions finds consumers planning to spend an average of $715 on gifts, roughly on par with the $740 recorded in October 2009.

Bottom Line

The $25 decrease in Americans’ holiday spending intentions between October 2009 and October 2010 (not a statistically significant change) contrasts with a $61 year-over-year reduction in intended spending found last October and a $108 reduction found a year prior.

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Americans’ average prediction of the total amount they will spend on Christmas gifts this year is not highly encouraging for retailers, who may be hoping for a return to pre-recessionary buying habits. The good news, however, is that the $25 decline in this year’s October forecast is far less than what Gallup found in each of the prior two years at this stage in the season and, according to Gallup modeling, would point to a fairly flat year in holiday retail sales if it holds at this level through December. According to the National Retail

Federation, there was a steep 3.9% year-over-year decline in holiday spending in 2008. Compared with that, a repeat of the “flat” holiday sales seen in 2009 may be a tolerable, if unwelcome, outcome for retailers who have grown accustomed to the new, more budget-conscious consumer. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 26, 2010 ECONOMY TOP ISSUE FOR VOTERS; SIZE OF GOVERNMENT MAY BE MORE PIVOTAL Those concerned about size of government overwhelmingly say they are voting Republican by Jeffrey M. Jones U.S. registered voters choose economic conditions by nearly a 2-to1 margin over any of four other key election issues as the most important to their vote for Congress this year. Substantial proportions of voters, however, also place importance on healthcare and the size and power of the federal government. Together, the top three issues account for more than 80% of the total, suggesting the 2010 elections are being contested on a fairly narrow issue space. This is a departure from the past two midterm elections, when there was no dominant issue, and voters’ choice for the most important one spanned a greater number of issues. Specifically, in 2006, the Iraq war was the top issue, chosen by 26% of registered voters, but between 9% and 18% of voters regarded each of the five other issues tested in that poll as the top issue. In the 2002 midterms, economic conditions was the top issue, at 27%, but 9% to 16% of voters chose each of the other five issues (healthcare, Social Security and Medicare, the situation in Iraq, terrorism, and education) included in that poll.

This year, the economy is the top issue among all party groups, although the gap between the economy and the second issue is much greater among Democrats and independents than among Republicans. The size and power of the federal government is the secondranked issue among Republicans and independents, but is chosen by a small proportion of Democrats.

Compared with prior midterm election years, Republicans are now much more likely to name healthcare as the most important issue to their vote. The 20% of Republican registered voters who say healthcare is most important this year compares with 7% who did so in 2002, and 8% in 2006. In fact, in both of those years, healthcare was last or tied for last among Republicans. The change obviously reflects Republicans’ opposition to the healthcare overhaul that Congress passed this year. Healthcare usually ranks as a higher priority among Democrats, though they are also significantly more likely to mention it this year than in 2002 (9%) and 2006 (14%). How Issue Importance Relates to Voting Outcomes One way to gauge the potential impact of each issue on the 2010 election outcome is to see how voters’ candidate choices compare, based on which issue they choose as most important to their vote. Because many more Democrats than Republicans choose the economy as the most important issue to their vote, it follows that those ranking the economy as the top issue are more likely to say they are voting Democratic than Republican for Congress this year. Those naming healthcare as most influential to their vote are also largely voting Democratic, though the margin in favor of the Democratic candidate among this group is much smaller than Gallup found in 2006, and about the same as in 2002.

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Notably, voters who choose the size and power of the federal government as most important overwhelmingly say they are voting Republican. Though these voters constitute only the third-largest group overall, the Republican advantage on this issue is large enough to offset the Democratic advantages among those rating the economy and healthcare as their top issue.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 27, 2010 EARLY VOTING HIGHEST AMONG OLDER VOTERS, THOSE IN WEST More than a quarter of registered voters have already voted or plan to vote early by Frank Newport

Bottom Line

More than a quarter of registered voters say they have already voted or will vote before Election Day next Tuesday. Early voting is highest among those living in the West—about 60% of whom have voted or plan to vote early—and older voters. There are only small differences in early voting by party at this point.

Voters’ overwhelming choice of economic conditions as the most important issue to their vote for Congress this year is consistent with Gallup’s polling throughout the year showing that the economy and unemployment rank as the top issues when Americans are asked to name the most important problem facing the country. While the economy is the dominant issue, it may not be quite as pivotal in determining the election outcome. Republicans have led or tied Democrats in 2010 voting preferences among registered voters for most of this year, even though voters ranking the economy as the top issue are more likely to say they will vote Democratic rather than Republican. Republicans’ strength could be built upon voters who say the size and power of the federal government is the top issue, a group that is voting overwhelmingly Republican this year. That group is composed mostly of Republicans but also includes a substantial proportion of independents. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 21-24, 2010, with a random sample of 1,364 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents per 1,000 respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. 372

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These results are based on a question included in Gallup’s Oct. 21-24 interviewing, asking respondents if they had already voted, if they planned on voting before Election Day, or if they planned on voting on Election Day itself. Respondents could volunteer that they did not plan on voting at all. It is difficult to put these findings into historical perspective because Gallup does not have a measure of early voting from previous midterm elections. Gallup finds self-reported early voting to be slightly lower in this midterm so far than it was in 2008, when 32% of registered voters just before that presidential election said they had voted or still planned to vote early. Prior to the 2004 presidential election, 21% said they had voted or planned on voting early. Older Voters and Those in the West Most Likely to Vote Early There is a decided age skew in early voting, with 18% of those 65 and older saying they have voted early, and another 18% saying they plan on voting early. By contrast, only 4% of 18- to 29-year-olds

have already voted, with another 12% saying they plan on voting early. The fact that 28% of registered voters under 30—compared with only 5% of seniors—volunteer that they do not plan on voting is a telling indication of the reality that young people are disproportionately less involved in the election process than their elders. The differences in early voting intentions between the Eastern and Western portions of the country are substantial, as they have been in previous presidential election years. Fifty-nine percent of those in the West say they will be early voters. That compares with 6% in the East and 10% in the Midwest, where voting patterns are much more traditionally focused on Election Day itself. Few Political Clues While interested observers have been poring over reports of early voting in an attempt to get a handle on the direction of the election, Gallup’s current data do not show much of a difference in early voting by party affiliation. Thirteen percent of self-identified Republican registered voters say they have already voted, compared with 9% of independents and Democrats. The percentages of those in each party group who say they will vote between now and Election Day are roughly equal. Implications Gallup’s findings about early voting so far certainly suggest the election is already over—or will be within the next several days—for a significant number of residents in the Western part of the country. In the East and Midwest, on the other hand, most voters will cast their ballots on Nov. 2, meaning that 11th-hour campaigning and debates may still be relevant in these regions, even as they have less impact in the West. The finding that older voters have a higher propensity to vote early is not a new one, but confirms that many senior citizens, like residents in the West, are by this point in the election cycle essentially “out of the game” as far as the campaigning is concerned. A disproportionately high number of younger registered voters volunteer that they will not end up voting this year, also confirming what is well-known in American politics—that young voters are as a rule not highly involved in the election process. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 21-24, 2010, with a random sample of 1,364 registered voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and

older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 28, 2010 FEWER SWING VOTERS IN 2010 THAN IN PRIOR MIDTERM YEARS One in five likely voters could change their minds by Jeffrey M. Jones About one in five likely voters have yet to solidify their 2010 vote for Congress, including 4% who currently have no preference and 15% who express a preference but say they could change their minds between now and the elections. That is a lower proportion of swing voters than Gallup measured in the prior two midterm elections.

Republican voters are somewhat more committed to their vote choice at this point than are Democratic voters. Among voters who say they would choose the Republican candidate for Congress in their local district if the elections were held today, 86% say they will definitely vote that way, compared with 82% of Democratic voters who are committed to their choice. This higher level of commitment among Republican voters could be a positive sign for Republicans’ chances on Election Day. In both 2002 and 2006, the party with the greater proportion of committed voters eventually won the greater percentage of the vote on Election Day.

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Historically, swing voters have come disproportionately from the ranks of those without strong attachments to the political parties. That is the case in the 2010 data as well, with independents (32%) and moderates (29%) among the subgroups of likely voters with the highest proportions of swing voters. Young adults are also far less likely than older adults to have a firm commitment to a candidate.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 28, 2010 NEW HIGH OF 46% OF AMERICANS SUPPORT LEGALIZING MARIJUANA Liberals, 18- to 29-year-olds express the highest levels of support by Elizabeth Mendes While California’s marijuana ballot initiative is garnering a lot of attention this election cycle, Gallup finds that nationally, a new high of 46% of Americans are in favor of legalizing use of the drug, and a new low of 50% are opposed. The increase in support this year from 44% in 2009 is not statistically significant, but is a continuation of the upward trend seen since 2000. Bottom Line Roughly one in five likely voters—including about a third of independents—have yet to make a firm voting choice, providing some hope for the Democratic Party in the final days of the 2010 campaign. In 2002, when more than one in three likely voters had not made a firm choice roughly two weeks before the elections, a late surge propelled the Republican Party to gains in the House even though Gallup tracking of voter preferences showed the Democrats leading for much of the fall. Still, the lower proportion of swing voters this year, coupled with Republican leads in current 2010 voting preferences, is another good sign for the GOP’s chances of a strong showing on Election Day. The potential for change among swing voters may not be all that great. Past Gallup analysis using pre- and post-election panel data found that swing voters usually follow through on their initial voting preference. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 14-17 and Oct. 21-24, 2010, with a random sample of 1,989 likely 2010 voters, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

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These results are from Gallup’s annual Crime poll, conducted Oct. 7-10. Approximately 8 in 10 Americans were opposed to legalizing marijuana when Gallup began asking about it in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Support for legalizing the drug jumped to 31% in 2000 after holding in the 25% range from the late 1970s to the mid1990s. A separate question in the poll asked about legalizing marijuana for medical use, and found support significantly higher than it is for legalizing the use of marijuana in general. Seventy percent of Americans say they favor making marijuana legally available for doctors to prescribe in order to reduce pain and suffering. This figure is down, however, from 78% in 2005 and 75% in 2003. Political Leanings, Age Divide Americans’ Support for Legalizing Marijuana Across numerous subgroups, liberals’ support, at 72%, is by far the highest. There is widespread support for legalization among 18- to 29-year-olds (61%) as well. Majority support is also found among Democrats, independents, men, and political moderates.

A large majority of those living in the West, which encompasses California, are in favor of making the drug legal. Support is significantly lower in the South and Midwest. Political conservatives and Republicans are the least supportive of legalizing marijuana. Seniors express a similarly low level of support. Women are 10 percentage points less likely than men to favor legalizing the drug. These demographic, political, and ideological differences in support are much the same as they were in 2009.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 28, 2010 RELIGIOUS AMERICANS ENJOY HIGHER WELLBEING Relationship holds when controlling for key demographics by Frank Newport, Sangeeta Agrawal, and Dan Witters A new analysis of more than 550,000 Gallup-Healthways WellBeing Index interviews conducted over the last year and a half finds that Americans who are the most religious also have the highest levels of wellbeing. The statistically significant relationship between religiousness and wellbeing holds up after controlling for numerous demographic variables. Higher levels of healthy behaviors, life evaluation, work environment perceptions, and emotional health affect religious Americans’ high wellbeing.

Bottom Line Arguments for and against legalizing marijuana—for personal or medical use—are likely to continue for years to come. Even if Proposition 19 wins in California on Nov. 2, as state law it will still come up against federal law, which bans the growth and sale of marijuana. Support for making the drug legal in general, however, is growing among Americans. The public is almost evenly split this year, with 46% in favor and 50% opposed. If the trend of the past decade continues at a similar pace, majority support could be a reality within the next few years. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. Each question reported here was asked of a half-sample of approximately 500 national adults. For results based on these total samples of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

For the purposes of this analysis, an American’s relative degree of religiousness is based on responses to two questions asking about the importance of religion and church attendance, yielding three specific groups: • Very religious—Religion is an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs at least every week or almost every week. This group constitutes 43.7% of the adult population. • Moderately religious—All others who do not fall into the very religious or nonreligious groups but who gave valid responses on both religion questions. This group constitues 26.6% of the adult population. • Nonreligious—Religion is not an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs seldom or never. This group constitutes 29.7% of the adult population. Previous research has shown that religiosity, defined either as church attendance or self-reported importance of religion, is related to age, gender, race and ethnicity, region and state of the country, socioeconomic status, marital status, and child-bearing status. Because wellbeing is also related to these variables, all of these characteristics are controlled for in this Gallup analysis.

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The difference in wellbeing between the religious and nonreligious populations is highly statistically significant given the large sample size this research uses, and would occur by chance alone on an infrequent basis. The difference is also notable given that WellBeing Index scores do not vary widely across sub-groups of the U.S. population. For example, across all 50 states, the range in Well-Being Index scores from the highest scoring state to the lowest scoring state is about 10 points. Wellbeing Higher for Religious Americans Across All Six Well-Being Sub-Indexes The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index comprises six subindexes. Very religious Americans enjoy at least modestly higher scores across all six of the key wellbeing areas compared with moderately and nonreligious Americans.

promotes social interaction and friendship with others, and Gallup analysis has clearly shown that time spent socially and social networks themselves are positively associated with wellbeing. Religion generally involves more meditative states and faith in a higher power, both of which have been widely used as methods to lower stress, reduce depression, and promote happiness. Religion provides mechanisms for coping with setbacks and life’s problems, which in turn may reduce stress, worry, and anger. Many religions, including Christianity, which is by far the dominant religion in the U.S., embody tenets of positive relationships with one’s neighbors and charitable acts, which may lead to a more positive mental outlook. Highly religious Americans’ healthier behaviors may have multiple causes, including for example culturally negative norms against such behaviors as smoking and alcohol consumption in a number of religions. It may also be possible that the lower emotional wellbeing of less religious Americans puts them in a state in which they are more susceptible to non-healthy behaviors. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2, 2009-July 28, 2010, with a random sample of 554,066 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Of this sample, very religious respondents comprised the plurality (43.2%), with slightly more than onequarter each for moderately religious and nonreligious respondents.

The most substantial differences between the very religious and nonreligious groups are in the Healthy Behaviors, Life Evaluation, Work Environment, and Emotional Health indexes. Differences between the very religious and nonreligious on the Physical Health and Basic Access indexes are smaller, but statistically significant. In both of these cases, the larger gap exists between the very religious and moderately religious groups, rather than between the very religious and nonreligious groups. The large distinction between those who are religious and nonreligious on the Healthy Behaviors Index is largely because of differences in smoking habits, and to a lesser degree, healthy eating differences. Implications Americans who are very religious have higher wellbeing than those who are less religious, a relationship that holds even after controlling for several related demographic and geographic variables. This study does not allow for a precise determination of why this might be the case. It is possible that Americans who have higher wellbeing may be more likely to choose to be religious than those with lower wellbeing. It is also possible that some third variable could be driving certain segments of the U.S. population to be more religious and to have higher wellbeing. It is also possible that the relationship is straightforward, that something about religiosity, defined as a personal importance placed on religion and frequent religious service attendance, in turn leads to a higher level of personal wellbeing. Religious service attendance

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For results based on the religiosity groups of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.5 percentage point for each group. Generalized linear model analysis was used to estimate marginal scores for all of the six indexes after controlling for age (in years), gender, race/ethnicity, marital status, education (number of years), log of income, and region of the country. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 29, 2010 ONE IN 4 SAY CONGRESS ACCOMPLISHED MORE THAN USUAL THIS YEAR Fewer than half of Democrats agree by Frank Newport Despite the 111th Congress’ passage of a lengthy list of legislation, including a massive healthcare bill, 37% of Americans say it has accomplished less this year than in the past few years, and a smaller 23% say it has accomplished more.

This question is particularly relevant this year because the current Democratically controlled Congress has passed a series of highprofile legislative bills, including the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, and others. Nevertheless, the large majority of Americans do not perceive that what Congress has accomplished is more than it has done in previous years. These results may partly reflect the antipathy Americans have toward Congress in general, and may also reflect the weak approval for the content of these bills. Gallup research shows that the majority of Americans approve of only one of five specific “major pieces of legislation” Congress has recently passed: increased government regulation of banks and major financial institutions. Americans’ perceptions of what Congress has accomplished may also provide support for President Obama’s and other Democratic leaders’ contention that Americans are not familiar enough with what Congress has done, and thus are not giving Democrats the credit they deserve. Although current assessments of Congress’ accomplishments are not positive in an absolute sense, they are more positive than responses to the same question in October 1994. Democrats were in control of Congress at that time, as they are now, but lost control to the Republicans in the November 1994 elections. At the same time, when this question was first asked in December 1993, in a poll conducted by CNN/Time, Americans were more upbeat, with only 16% saying Congress had done less than in previous years. Democratic leaders in Washington have touted recent legislation as evidence of their legislative success, while some in the Republican Party and in the Tea Party movement have condemned these same acts as steering the country in the wrong direction. Americans of neither party, however, are highly likely to perceive that the 111th Congress has accomplished more than usual.

Slightly fewer than 4 out of 10 Democrats say Congress has accomplished more this year than in previous years, compared with 15% of both Republicans and independents. A majority of Republicans say Congress has done less than in previous years. The fact that well under half of Democrats say Congress has accomplished more than usual may be related to the finding that Democrats to this point have shown lower levels of enthusiasm or involvement in the election than have Republicans. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 21-24, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 29, 2010 U.S. CONSUMERS’ SPENDING ANEMIC IN OCTOBER Spending averaging $62 per day in October—up from September, but down from a year ago by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Americans’ self-reported spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $62 per day during the first four weeks of October. That figure is up from $59 in September and is about the same as the $63 figure from August. From a broader perspective, spending remains in the 2009-2010 new normal monthly average range of $59 to $72 and is far below the 2008 recessionary spending range of $81 to $114. Weekly Self-Reported Spending Up From 2010 Lows Gallup’s consumer spending measure over the last two weeks (ending Oct. 17 and Oct. 24) has averaged $67 per day and $65 per day, respectively, slightly higher than the estimate for all of October to

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date. The increase is likely a result of Halloween shopping, given that in the past, Gallup has seen increases in spending during the second half of October. The latest weekly figures are also up from late September, which saw some of the lowest spending weeks of 2010. Over the past four weeks, spending has averaged slightly below year-ago levels.

Another Tough Christmas for Retailers While spending is up slightly in October from September, year-overyear comparisons are not encouraging, with spending remaining in the new normal range established in 2009 and continuing into 2010. In turn, this is consistent with Gallup’s October Christmas spending estimate that suggests another anemic holiday season for the nation’s retailers. Continued high unemployment, at 10.0% on a not-seasonally adjusted basis, also suggests another weak Christmas spending season, as Americans who are unemployed or fearing job loss tend to spend less, even around the holidays. Further, the increasing cost of gas and other commodities may limit the ability of many Americans to spend in other areas. While retailers may be able to encourage consumer buying with aggressive discounting, they will do so at the cost of reducing their margins. At the same time, even as consumers enjoy price discounting, they may experience a reduced selection of goods as retailers try to keep their inventories lean. There could be better news ahead, perhaps if the Federal Reserve acts next week to promote economic growth and/or if the results of the midterm elections make some consumers feel better. Regardless, until there is an indication of significant change, Gallup’s data suggest another anemic holiday sales season ahead.

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Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking with a random sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the weekly sample of national adults averaging 3,500 interviews, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 29, 2010 SLIGHTLY FEWER SATISFIED WITH CONDUCT OF CAMPAIGNS IN 2010 Though more Americans are satisfied than dissatisfied by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are less satisfied with the way local congressional candidates are conducting their campaigns in 2010 than in any of the past four midterm election years. Though not appreciably different from the levels of satisfaction in 1998 and 2006, the current reading does mark the first time less than a majority are satisfied. Still, those who are satisfied continue to outnumber those who are dissatisfied.

These results are based on an Oct. 21-24 Gallup poll. Gallup has asked Americans to assess the congressional campaigns in late October in each of the last four midterm election years. Among political groups, independents (40%) are the least satisfied with the way congressional candidates are conducting their campaigns, with Republicans and Democrats (51% each) equally satisfied. That pattern of results has generally held in past election years, with 2002 a notable exception. In that year, independents were at least as satisfied as Republicans and Democrats.

Americans remain quite negative in their evaluations of a specific type of campaign activity: television commercials for candidates for political office. Seventy-nine percent say most of the ads they have seen have been negative, including 46% who say “very” or “extremely negative.” Only 14% describe the commercials as positive. The 46% of Americans who say the ads have been very or extremely negative is similar to what Gallup measured in the 2006 campaign, when 49% evaluated the ads this negatively. Americans were less likely to see the political ads as highly negative in 2002.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 21-24, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. Results for both questions here are based on interviews with a half sample of approximately 500 national adults each. For results based on these total samples of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

October 31, 2010 REPUBLICANS APPEAR POISED TO WIN BIG ON TUESDAY Lead in generic ballot large enough to give Republicans solid majority control of U.S. House by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad

Republicans, Democrats, and independents rate the political commercials they have seen about equally negatively. This has generally been the case in past midterm elections. Bottom Line The 2010 campaign has been intense, with Democrats trying to maintain the majority status in Congress they have enjoyed the last four years, even as Republicans—fueled in part by the Tea Party movement—see a real chance for winning control of the House and possibly the Senate. The campaign has also been notable for the ads sponsored by unaffiliated advocacy groups endorsing particular candidates. Americans do express slightly less satisfaction with the way local candidates for Congress are conducting their campaigns than they have in past midterm election years, but nothing too different from their satisfaction in the past. And more Americans continue to say they are satisfied than dissatisfied with the campaigns.

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House. The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot—depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided. Republicans’ 15-percentage-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP’s margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup’s final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters—an 11-point gain.

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These final estimates of the vote among registered and likely voters are consistent with Gallup polling since Sept. 23. Republicans have led by an average of 4 points among registered voters and by 16 points among a low-turnout estimate of likely voters since that time. Thus, while voter preferences could change in the final two days, perhaps resulting from Democrats’ final push to motivate their base to turn out, voter preferences appear to be quite settled in this final post-Labor Day phase of the campaign. A Republican Majority Very Likely Gallup models the number of seats a party will control based on that party’s share of the national two-party vote for the House of Representatives, using historical voting data in midterm elections from 1946 to 2006. The model takes into account the majority party in Congress entering the elections. Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible. It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained. Additionally, efforts by state legislatures in recent years have attempted to insulate incumbent members of Congress from strong partisan tides such as are in force this year. Congressional district lines have been drawn to make them safe for specific parties, which may reduce the impact of national trends on election outcomes. In the early part of the 20th century, it was not unusual for an election to bring about a change in party control of 50 House seats or more. In recent decades, the partisan shifts have been more modest, with the Republicans’ 54-seat gain in 1994 a rare exception. Turnout Holds the Key To the extent Tuesday does bring about a strong Republican wave, it will be to a significant degree the result of turnout. Republicans have a slender 4-point advantage in the preferences of registered voters, which expands to 15 points among likely voters. Republicans usually turn out at higher rates than Democrats, so the margin’s expansion is not unusual, but its size this year is. In general, Republicans’ advantage in the vote is strongest in an average turnout sce-

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nario, while higher turnout scenarios bring more Democrats into the likely voter pool and increase the Democratic share of the vote. Republicans’ turnout advantage is highlighted by two key questions used as part of Gallup’s likely voter model. One asks Americans how much thought they have given to the upcoming elections; the other asks those who say they plan to vote how certain they are about voting. The Oct. 28-31 poll finds that nationally, 75% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the 2010 midterms, compared with 68% of Democrats. While these figures are not the only indicator of relative turnout strength—this is just one question in Gallup’s seven-item likely voter model—the record-high seven-point gap between the parties is strongly indicative of a relative surge in GOP turnout. Similarly, 68% of Republicans and Republican leaners say they have given “quite a lot of” or “some” thought to the elections. This compares with 54% of Democrats giving the same amount of thought to the elections, resulting in a 14-point difference between the parties. That gap is greater than any Gallup has seen since and including the 1994 midterms. Overall, Gallup’s final likely voter pool consists of 35% of Americans identifying as Republicans, 32% as Democrats, and 32% as independents. Vote by Key Demographic Groups The structure of the vote among subgroups of the American population follows typical patterns. Republicans do best among the following groups: men, whites, those living in the South and West, higher-income households, those who are married, and those who attend church frequently, with Democrats generally doing better among the demographic counterparts in each instance. There is virtually no difference in the percentage of Republican and Democratic likely voters supporting their own party’s candidate. Ninety-two percent of Democrats are voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, and 96% of Republican likely voters are voting for the Republican candidate. Independents tilt toward the Republican candidate by a sizable 59% to 31% margin. The margin for Republican congressional candidates among independents is much greater among likely voters than among registered voters, suggesting independents voting Republican are significantly more likely to turn out than are those voting Democratic. Key Indicators on Election Eve The final pre-election survey continues to show that most key indicators assessing the political climate are not favorable toward the incumbent party. President Obama’s job approval rating among national adults is at 45% in this final pre-election survey. This is higher than the 38% job approval rating George W. Bush had just before the 2006 midterm elections, lower than Bush’s 63% approval before the 2002 midterms and Bill Clinton’s 66% approval before the 1998 midterms, and about the same as the 46% Clinton had before the 1994 midterms. Presidents whose approval ratings have been below 50% have suffered an average loss of 36 House seats in midterm elections since 1946. Twenty-one percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, and 22% of Americans say they are satisfied with the way

things are going in the country right now. Both of these measures are essentially tied with or lower than those before any previous midterm elections since Gallup began measuring them systematically. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews with 2,240 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 28-31, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 2,027 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on the subsample of 1,539 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2010 midterm elections, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Based on past voting history in United States midterm

elections and current interest in the election, turnout is assumed to be 45% of the voting-age population. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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November 01, 2010 OBAMA, NATIONAL ISSUES PLAY LARGE ROLE IN VOTER PREFERENCES Nearly half of likely voters say country will be better off if Republicans win

67% of Democratic backers saying they are voting for their candidate and 21% voting against the Republican candidate. Generally speaking, the party that has the advantage in “antivotes”—this year, the Republicans—is the party that wins the majority. The 32% of Republican likely voters who say they are voting mainly against the Democrat is similar to the percentage of Democratic supporters who were voting against the Republicans in 2006— then 38%. It is also similar to the 33% of Republican voters who were mainly voting against the Democrat in 1994. Even so, while antipathy toward the Democrats does account for some voting for Republicans, it is not overwhelming. The majority of GOP voters still say their vote is for their party’s candidate rather than against the other party’s candidate.

by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad By 38% to 24%, Tuesday’s voters are more likely to be using their vote for Congress to send a message that they oppose President Obama than to signal that they support him, while 37% say they will not be sending a message with their vote.

National Issue Voting Prevails for Second Time

Obama has been front and center in these midterm elections, both as a target for disaffected Republican voters and as a campaigner for Democratic candidates. The tendency of today’s likely voters to be sending a message against Obama rather than in support of him is similar to 2006 when more voters were issuing a message against President George W. Bush than for him. By contrast, in 2002 and 1998, voters were either mostly casting their vote as a show of support for the president or were evenly divided in their intentions. These results are based on likely voters for each election, using Gallup’s final pre-election polls. The 2010 results come from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Oct. 28-31, showing Republicans leading the Democrats among likely voters, 55% to 40%. Pulled Toward the GOP or Pushed Away From the Democrats? A compelling question about likely voters’ overall preference for the Republicans this year is whether their vote reflects more of an attraction to the Republican Party or a reaction against the Democratic Party. Among those supporting Republican candidates, 54% say their vote is more a vote for the Republican candidate, while 32% call it mainly a vote against the Democratic candidate. This compares with

Given four factors to consider when choosing a congressional candidate, 41% of voters this year cite national issues, making them the top factor. Another 23% choose the character and experience of a candidate, 21% choose local and state issues, and 12% choose the candidate’s political party. This emphasis on “national issues” is similar to what Gallup found in 2006—another election in which frustration with the party in power seemed to be driving the vote—but significantly higher than in the three previous elections. Prior to 2006, voters gave national issues relatively lower importance. In 2002, character/experience was the most-often-cited factor, while in 1998 and 1994, voters were most likely to say local and state issues were the most important. The responses to this question broken out by party support the general idea that for those identifying with the “out” party this year— or no party at all—the vote is more to send a message about national issues than it is to send a message on local issues, the candidate’s particular character and experience, or his or her political party. Republicans and, to a lesser degree, independents are most likely to name national issues as their top priority in voting, while Democrats give about equal weight to national issues, local and state issues, and character. Bottom Line If Republicans win the majority in the U.S. House on Tuesday, 2010 will join 2006 and 1994 as the most recent elections in which power changed hands in Congress. In addition to the indication of strong PUBLIC OPINION 2010

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member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 01, 2010 CONTROL OF CONGRESS MATTERS MOST TO TEA PARTIERS, REPUBLICANS Proportion of Republicans saying party in power matters has surged since 2002 by Lydia Saad

Republican gains provided by the generic congressional ballot results, several broader voter attitudes point to an impending change of power: • More voters currently say their vote is a message against the sitting president rather than for him, a pattern also seen in 2006, but not in 2002 and 1998. This question was not asked in 1994. • Voters backing candidates from the minority party (currently Republicans) are more likely to say their vote is mainly a vote against the other party than are voters who are backing the majority party’s candidates (currently Democrats). In 1994 and 2006, the winning party was the one more voters supported as a vote against the other party. • Voters are more likely to say the country will be better off with the Republicans in charge than the Democrats. In each of the last two midterms, 2006 and 2002, the party leading on this won the majority of U.S. House seats.

In Gallup polling conducted barely a week before the midterm elections, 49% of Americans say the issue of which party controls Congress matters a great deal to them, a sentiment that rises to 70% among Tea Party supporters, 67% among Republicans, and 63% among conservatives. Just over half of Tea Party opponents, as well as liberals and Democrats, say the political leadership of Congress matters greatly to them. Among registered voters who attach a great deal of importance

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 1,539 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2010 midterm elections, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Based on past voting history in United States midterm elections and current interest in the election, turnout is assumed to be 45% of the voting-age population. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which 384

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to the political balance in Congress, 55% say they intend to vote for the Republican candidate in their own district, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Among those who think the party in the majority is less important, the plurality (48%) intend to vote Democratic. Majority Power Relevance Is Up From ‘02 More Americans care a great deal about the political balance in Congress than did so eight years ago: the current 49% is up from 40% in 2002. The increase is mainly the result of a 20-point surge in con-

cern among Republicans, as the proportions of independents and Democrats saying party control matters a great deal to them have changed little. As a result of these differential party trends, Republicans are

November 02, 2010 U.S. JOB CREATION IMPROVES SLIGHTLY IN OCTOBER Federal hiring and improvement in the West create slightly better job market conditions by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Job Creation Index increased to +10 in October from +9 in September, indicating a slight improvement in employee hiring and firing perceptions last month.

now more likely than Democrats to rate control of Congress as highly important, whereas in 2002 the two parties had the same views on the measure. Bottom Line Republicans are more engaged in the 2010 midterms than Democrats, a finding evident in Gallup’s enthusiasm measure all year and, more recently, in voter turnout measures. Precisely why that is so is another question, perhaps answered in part by the finding that Republicans are more likely to believe the outcome of the elections is highly relevant. In other words, Republicans perceive that more is at stake. If that motivation indeed translates into higher turnout, Republicans will likely get what they want on Tuesday in the form of a strong Republican majority in the House. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 21-24, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The +10 index score for October reflects 30% of U.S. workers saying their employers are hiring and 20% saying theirs are letting workers go. From 28% to 30% of working Americans have said their companies are hiring and 20% or 21% have said their employers are letting workers go since May. In turn, this suggests that the October numbers do not reflect a significant change in job market conditions. However, job market conditions are better now than they were at this time a year ago, when the Job Creation Index was +2.

Federal Hiring Surge in October Federal government employees report a surge in hiring during October to +17, with 39% saying their employer was adding people and 22% saying it was letting people go. State (-8) and local (-12) government employees continue to report less hiring and comparatively more employees being let go, although the local government situation appears to have improved slightly last month. Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 02, 2010 MORE THAN 16% OF AMERICAN ADULTS REMAIN UNINSURED More Americans have government healthcare, fewer have employer-based care in 2010 vs. 2009 by Elizabeth Mendes While many voters cast their ballots for representatives who likely hold a strong position either for or against the healthcare legislation signed into law in March, Gallup finds more than one in six American adults remain uninsured, unchanged from prior months this year, but still significantly more than in 2008, when Gallup and Healthways began tracking it. The percentage of uninsured Americans shot up to 15.8% in November 2008, in the midst of the financial crisis, and entered into the 16% range in early 2009. Gallup asks Americans about their healthcare coverage daily as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The monthly data for October are based on interviews with more than 30,000 Americans. The close to 300,000 surveys Gallup has conducted so far in 2010 find an average of 16.3% of Americans reporting being uninsured at the time they were interviewed. More Americans on average have government healthcare and fewer have employer-based coverage so far in 2010 compared with 2009 and 2008. 386

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Bottom Line Several major provisions of the new healthcare law, which could significantly affect coverage in America, were initiated little more than a month ago. These include letting children up to age 26 remain on their parents’ plan, banning insurers from canceling a person’s coverage if they get sick, and ending lifetime dollar limits on coverage. Gallup trends reveal, however, that these new policies have yet to influence the health coverage situation for the average American, although the changes may take some time to permeate the population. Additionally, the more significant measures designed to reduce the ranks of the uninsured, such as the requirement that most Americans carry health insurance and the creation of health insurance exchanges, are not set to go into effect until 2014. The results of Tuesday’s midterm elections may ultimately affect whether the reforms in the Affordable Care Act may have a chance to help more Americans get healthcare. Numerous Republican and Tea Party candidates have campaigned against the healthcare overhaul and the official 2010 Republican Agenda pledges to “repeal and replace” the current version of the healthcare bill. Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s elections and the healthcare policies the new Congress pursues, Gallup and Healthways will continue to monitor health insurance coverage in the United States and regularly report updates on Gallup.com. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Oct. 1-31, 2010, with a random sample of 30,267 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents

are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 02, 2010 RECORD MIDTERM ENTHUSIASM AS VOTERS HEAD TO POLLS Republican enthusiasm exceeds that for either party in prior midterm election years by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ enthusiasm about voting exceeds the recent midterm election high set four years ago, with 50% of Americans and 53% of registered voters saying they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in 2010.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994. The party with the advantage in enthusiasm has won the greater share of the national congressional vote, and gained seats in the House, each election year since Gallup began tracking voter enthusiasm in 1994. The well-documented enthusiasm gap, reflected in pre-election polls consistently showing Republicans doing well in 2010 election voting preferences, may explain why more Americans think a shakeup in Washington is more likely than not on Election Day. A recent Gallup poll found 49% of Americans saying there is a better chance this election will bring about major changes in Washington, while 44% disagree. Gallup asked the same question prior to the 1994 elections— which saw the greatest net shift of U.S. House seats by party in the last 50 years—and Americans’ expectations for change were lower in 1994 than they are today. That year, 40% of Americans thought there was a better chance of major change after those elections and 53% did not. Gallup has not asked this question in other midterm election years. As one might expect with their party likely to gain seats in Congress on Election Day, Republicans (64%) are much more likely than Democrats (38%) to think the 2010 elections will bring about major change in Washington. Gallup has documented that national political conditions are ripe for significant change in Congress, given low presidential approval ratings, low congressional approval ratings, and low levels of satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States, at a time when the same party holds the presidency and controls both houses of Congress. Bottom Line The 2010 elections could be historic from the standpoint of producing unusually large Republican gains in Congress. But the elections are already historic for a midterm election in the levels of enthusiasm Americans, and particularly, Republicans, have for voting this year.

These results are based on the USA Today/Gallup final 2010 preelection poll, conducted Oct. 28-31. The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement—63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 28-31, 2010, with a random sample of 2,240 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Results for the question about chances for major change in Washington are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 2124, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random digit dialing. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample

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includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 03, 2010 DEMOCRATS FAVOR NEW STIMULUS; REPUBLICANS, HEALTHCARE REPEAL Few Americans prioritize extending Bush-era tax cuts by Frank Newport Given a choice of four priorities for Congress after Tuesday’s elections, Democrats overwhelmingly favor passing a new economic stimulus bill, while Republicans are most likely to favor repealing the new healthcare law and cutting federal spending. These partisan differences highlight the challenges that face the lame-duck Congress that will reconvene before the end of the year, as well as the new Congress that will take office in January.

Rank-and-file Democrats clearly look to the government as the appropriate agent to take further action to help the economy and generate jobs—overwhelmingly choosing a new economic stimulus bill as the highest congressional priority going forward. Rank-and-file Republicans are more interested in pulling back on what government does, in terms of dismantling the healthcare reform bill passed last March and cutting federal spending. Independents’ views are generally between those of the two major parties, and basically mirror the overall sentiments of all Americans. This question about congressional priorities was asked in an Oct. 28-31 pre-election USA Today/Gallup poll. Overall, Americans’ top choice among the four priorities for Congress is a new stimulus bill, chosen by 38%. More generally, most Americans choose one of three alternatives—a new stimulus bill, cutting federal spending, and

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repealing the new healthcare law, in that order—with relatively few prioritizing extending all Bush-era federal income tax cuts. None of the four priorities is chosen by a majority of Americans as their top priority, again illustrating the difficult challenges facing Congress in the post-election period. Implications Americans’ views about what the new Congress should prioritize underscore a consistent theme evident elsewhere in Gallup’s research this year—that Americans are deeply conflicted about the appropriate role of the federal government. Republicans and conservatives are generally negative about the role of the federal government in American life and want to see its influence diminished rather than expanded. Democrats are more positive about the government’s role and view it as an appropriate way in which society’s problems can be addressed. Nowhere is this more visible than in the finding that Republicans’ No. 1 priority for government after the elections is to dismantle the massive healthcare reform bill passed last March, while Democrats’ No. 1 priority is to increase government efforts to help the economy by passing a new economic stimulus bill. This particular question included only four alternative priorities for respondents to choose among; it is possible that some respondents would volunteer still different priorities for Congress after the elections. But Americans’ responses to this particular set of alternatives make it clear that Congress faces the challenge of coming to a consensus on exactly what the federal government should be expected to do and how extensive its involvement in American society should be. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 28-31, 2010, with a random sample of 2,240 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 04, 2010 AMERICANS SEE POSITIVE, NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF TEA PARTY MOVEMENT Nearly three in four believe it has gotten people more involved in the political process by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans believe that the Tea Party movement has had both positive and negative influences on the U.S. political process. They credit the movement with getting people more involved in the political process and making the parties more responsive to the views of ordinary citizens. At the same time, a majority believe the Tea Party has created deeper political divisions in the U.S.

Because Tea Party supporters are overwhelmingly Republican and opponents Democratic, the views of Republicans and Democrats on these issues largely mirror those of movement supporters and opponents, respectively. Bottom Line

These results are based on the USA Today/Gallup final pre-election poll, conducted Oct. 28-31, and reflect Americans’ views of the Tea Party before Tuesday’s election results were known. The election saw Republicans make gains in both houses of Congress, including a gain of more than 60 seats in the House of Representatives to take partisan control of that institution. Twenty-six percent of Americans describe themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement, and 27% as opponents, with the remainder neutral. These percentages were quite stable throughout the election year.

Tea Party supporters and opponents have differing views of the impact of the Tea Party on American politics. • Majorities of supporters and opponents agree that the movement caused people to get more involved in the political process, though supporters are much more likely to believe this. • Supporters and opponents diverge on the questions of whether the movement made the parties more responsive to the people and whether it created deeper political divisions. • Tea Party supporters are nearly unanimous in thinking the movement made the parties more responsive. Meanwhile more than 8 in 10 opponents think it made the country more divided politically, though even 44% of Tea Party supporters agree.

In politics, 2010 may best be remembered for the impact of the Tea Party movement on the year’s midterm elections. Tea Party-backed candidates had a significant say in determining which Republican candidates were nominated, upsetting GOP establishment candidates in many races. Some of the Tea Party-favored candidates eventually prevailed in the general election. In its short existence, Americans acknowledge that the Tea Party movement has had a measurable impact, most notably in terms of getting people more involved in the political process. Now that the 2010 elections are over, one of the key stories in the coming political year is whether the Tea Party will gain or lose influence in American politics. This will be evident in the effectiveness in Congress of its favored candidates who won election, as well as its influence over who is nominated as the Republican presidential candidate for the 2012 election. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 28-31, 2010, with a random sample of 2,240 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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November 05, 2010 AMERICANS’ STANDARD OF LIVING OPTIMISM FLAT VS. A YEAR AGO About half of all income groups said standard of living was “getting better” in October

error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Despite an 11% increase in the Dow during September and October, Americans’ standard-of-living optimism has remained flat over the same period, with 50% of upper-income Americans saying their standard of living is “getting better” in October—unchanged from the prior three months and a year ago. Similarly, 45% of lower- and middle-income Americans say their standard of living is getting better—essentially the same as readings from the prior three months and October 2009.

November 05, 2010 NEARLY 4 IN 10 AMERICANS STILL FEAR WALKING ALONE AT NIGHT Women more fearful than men at all income levels by Lydia Saad Nearly 4 in 10 Americans, 37%, say they would be afraid to walk alone at night within a mile of their home. That is close to the average level of fear on this measure across the 35-year Gallup trend.

The percentage of Americans saying their standard of living was getting better declined as the recession deepened in 2008. In fact, as the financial crisis worsened, making the recession even more pronounced during late 2008 and early 2009, upper-income Americans’ optimism about their standard of living declined to the point that it matched that of their lower- and middle-income counterparts. By October 2009, standard-of-living optimism had increased across income groups to the level at which it stands today. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Oct. 1-31, 2010, with a random sample of 30,267 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling 390

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The latest results are from Gallup’s annual Crime survey, conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010. According to the trend, the highest level of public fear about being victimized when walking alone at night was recorded in 1982. At that time, nearly half of adults, 48%, said they were afraid, while 52% were not afraid. Fear stayed fairly high through 1993, registering above 40%, but then descended to 30% by 2001. It has since increased slightly, although it has not returned to the record-high levels. This trend in Americans’ perceptions of their personal safety contrasts with federal crime statistics showing a sharp, steady decline in the rate of violent crime (including murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault) over the past 16 years. After two decades when violent crime registered at or near 50 victims per 1,000 population, crime plummeted during the 1990s and 2000s, and is now at its lowest level in recent history.

Fear Varies by Gender, Income

Survey Methods

Americans’ fear of crime victimization relates strongly to two distinct factors: household income and gender. Adults living in lowincome households are roughly twice as likely as those living in high-income households to be afraid, 48% vs. 23%. Women are more than twice as likely as men to say they are afraid to walk alone at night near their home, 50% vs. 22%. This 28point gender gap conforms to what Gallup found on this issue globally in 2009 with a different question asked in 105 countries. Additionally, women are more fearful than men at every income level. This confirms that the higher fear among women is not solely a function of their somewhat lower socioeconomic status compared with that of men.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 08, 2010 IN U.S., 64% SUPPORT DEATH PENALTY IN CASES OF MURDER Half say death penalty not imposed often enough by Frank Newport There are only slight regional differences in attitudes about personal safety from crime, with residents of the Midwest a bit less likely to be afraid to walk alone at night near their home than are those in the other three regions. Thirty percent in the Midwest are afraid, compared with 38% in the East, South, and West combined. From a political standpoint, it is interesting to note that Democrats are more likely to be concerned about their safety locally than are Republicans (46% vs. 32%); that could have implications for the anti-crime policies supported by each party. However, in contrast to the differences by gender, that fear gap is largely erased when household income is controlled for.

Gallup’s annual Crime Survey finds that 64% of Americans continue to support the use of the death penalty for persons convicted of murder, while 29% oppose it—continuing a trend that has shown little change over the last seven years.

Bottom Line The proportion of Americans afraid to venture out alone at night near their home is lower today than at points in the past, when the crime rate was significantly higher than it is today—such as in 1982 and 1993. However, it has not decreased as sharply as the drop in violent crime over the past decade. In fact, while the violent crime rate has dropped steadily each year and now stands at a record low, the percentage afraid to walk alone at night has rebounded somewhat, suggesting fear of crime is not necessarily dictated by reality. The degree to which media portrayals of crime factors into these perceptions, and how aware Americans are of the declining crime rate, is unclear.

Americans’ views of the death penalty are particularly significant at this time, with several high-profile cases involving the death penalty in the news, including the imminent sentencing of convicted murderer Steven J. Hayes in Connecticut, a state in which only one person has been executed in the last 50 years.

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Opponents of the death penalty continue to point out that DNA tests and other evidence have shown on numerous occasions that individuals sentenced to the death penalty were in fact innocent. Despite the continuing controversy over the use of the death penalty, the attitudes of the average American on this issue have hardly changed in recent years. The current 64% support level is roughly equal to what Gallup has found through most of this decade. This question about the death penalty in cases of murder is one of Gallup’s oldest trends—stretching back to 1936, when 59% of Americans supported the death penalty and 38% opposed it. Despite the similarity between today’s attitudinal structure and what was found in 1936, there have been significant changes in the decades in between. At one point in 1994, 80% of Americans favored the death penalty, the all-time high on this measure. In 1966, 42% supported it, the all-time low.

Similarly, 58% say the death penalty is applied fairly in this country today, while 36% say it is not, attitudes that have been stable in recent years. These beliefs persist even though one of the main arguments against the death penalty is that it is applied unfairly—that members of certain minority groups are more likely to receive the death penalty than others convicted of the same crimes, or that the arbitrary differences in trial procedures, judges, and jurisdictions can make a difference in who receives the death penalty and who doesn’t.

Americans Split on Death Penalty vs. Life Imprisonment With No Possibility of Parole Gallup from time to time asks a separate question on the death penalty that provides respondents with the explicit alternative of “life imprisonment, with absolutely no possibility of parole.” Given this choice, the public this year splits roughly evenly, with 49% saying the death penalty is the better penalty for murder, while 46% opt for life imprisonment. This split is roughly the same as in 2006, when this question was last asked. However, prior to 2000, support generally tilted more strongly toward the death penalty option.

Republicans, Men, Whites Express Most Support for Death Penalty Men, whites, and Republicans are among the most likely to support the death penalty—similar to previous years, although majorities of women, nonwhites, and Democrats also approve.

Half Say Death Penalty Not Imposed Often Enough About half (49%) of Americans in this year’s update say the death penalty is not imposed often enough and 26% say it is imposed “about the right amount,” while 18% say it is imposed too often. These attitudes are little changed since 2002. 392

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Bottom Line The use of the death penalty has been declining worldwide, with most of the known executions now carried out in five countries—

China, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. Anti-death penalty groups in the U.S. continue to fight the use of the death penalty, particularly when there are high-profile instances of its use, such as this year’s execution in Virginia of Teresa Lewis, the first woman to be executed in that state in almost 100 years. Despite this, Gallup’s latest update in October shows no diminution in the strong majority level of support for the death penalty in cases of murder within the U.S. Support for the death penalty can vary, depending on what the alternatives are, and also in reference to the specific circumstances of individual cases. For example, support drops to about half of the population when Americans are given the opportunity to choose the explicit alternative of life imprisonment with no possibility of parole. On the other hand, previous Gallup research has shown that in specific instances of highly visible, heinous crimes, support can rise to as high as 80%. That was the case when Gallup in 2001 asked Americans about the use of the death penalty for convicted Oklahoma City bomber Timothy McVeigh, whose actions resulted in the deaths of 168 people. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 09, 2010 AS BOOK TOUR BEGINS, GEORGE W. BUSH’S FAVORABLE RATING AT 44% Nearly two years after leaving office, Bush’s image remains more negative than positive by Frank Newport As he begins promoting his new memoir “Decision Points,” former President George W. Bush receives a 44% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating from Americans. This is up slightly from a 40% favor-

able rating in January 2009 when he left office, but far below the 87% he received in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Bush’s image in the eyes of Americans has been through sweeping changes over the past 11 years, encompassing one of the largest ranges in favorable ratings in Gallup’s history. Gallup first asked Americans about Bush in February 1999, when he was the governor of Texas and contemplating a run for the presidency. He was well-known even at that point, most likely in large part because of his famous name, and received a largely positive 69% favorable, 12% unfavorable rating. After the rigors of the presidential campaign, and just before the November 2000 election, Bush’s favorable rating fell to 55%. After his controversial and contentious recount battle with Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore, Bush’s favorable rating increased to 62% in January 2001. Bush’s 87% favorable rating in November 2001 is only one point below the highest favorable rating recorded for any individual since the early 1990s, when Gallup began measuring the public’s images of famous people using this format. Golfer Tiger Woods (June 2000) and Bush’s first secretary of state, Gen. Colin Powell (September 2002), registered 88% favorable ratings. Bush’s rating drifted down steadily and significantly from 2002 onward, particularly in his second term in office. Bush’s lowest favorable rating was 32%, recorded in April 2008, reflecting continuing concerns about the Iraq war and the recessionary economy. This 55-point difference between his personal high and low ties Tiger Woods for the largest such gap Gallup has measured. As he was leaving office in January 2009, Bush’s favorable rating was up slightly to 40%, and hit 45% in July 2010. His latest rating of 44% in the Nov. 4-7 USA Today/Gallup survey is essentially unchanged from the prior measurement. Bush’s immediate predecessor in the White House, Bill Clinton, had a 47% rating in September 2002, at a similar point in his postpresidency career. Perhaps providing some hope for a return to higher ratings for Bush, Clinton’s favorables have improved in more recent years, reaching 63% by February 2007 and remaining at a stillhigh 61% this past summer. Bush Remains a Highly Polarizing Figure Bush remains a highly polarizing figure in American society, with an 87% favorable rating among Republicans nationally, and an almost mirror-image 85% unfavorable rating among Democrats. Independents are more negative than positive.

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November 10, 2010 DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS DIFFER IN VIEWS OF COMPROMISE IN D.C. Democrats more likely to favor compromise; Republicans, holding firm to beliefs by Jeffrey M. Jones

Bottom Line Former President Bush returns to the public stage with a 44% favorable rating—above his record low of 32% from two years ago, but far below his record high of 87% recorded in November 2001. Bush has maintained a low-visibility lifestyle in Dallas, Texas, since leaving the White House, giving few interviews and making only the occasional public appearance. Now, the publication of his memoir has required the president to resume a more public existence. In the time-honored tradition of publishers’ demands for authors of books that involve multimillion-dollar advances, Bush is making the rounds of high-visibility talk shows, including the “Today Show,” “The Oprah Winfrey Show,” and “The Tonight Show With Jay Leno,” and is giving extensive newspaper interviews. It remains to be seen how this visibility, plus the impact of the book itself, will affect Bush’s image in the eyes of Americans in the weeks and months ahead.

Americans think it is generally more important for political leaders to compromise to get things done (47%) rather than sticking to their beliefs (27%), but Republicans and Democrats hold differing views on the matter. Republicans tilt more toward saying leaders should stick to their beliefs (41% to 32%), while Democrats more widely endorse compromise (by 59% to 18%).

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Nov. 4-7, after the midterm elections. The elections resulted in divided control of Congress, with Republicans set to become the majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives and Democrats holding on to a Senate majority. Because this was the first time Gallup has asked the question about compromise versus holding firm in one’s beliefs, it is not clear whether the partisan differences in the poll are typical or whether they reflect Republicans’ and Democrats’ responses to the current political situation. Republicans were able to make big electoral gains in the midterm elections largely by opposing President Obama’s agenda of the last two years. On the other hand, the president will now need to work with Republicans in order to get things done after having the luxury of Democratic control of both houses of Congress during his first two years in office. Americans are significantly more likely to think Obama will make a sincere effort to work with Republicans in Congress (64%) than they are to believe Republicans will make an effort to work with the president and the Democrats in Congress (43%). The difference could stem from Americans’ tendency to rate the president more positively than Congress. Americans are significantly more skeptical about the major political players’ willingness to compromise than they were in November 2008, just after Obama’s election. However, they are somewhat more positive than they were in September 2009, eight months into the Obama presidency, when Congress was intensely debating the president’s healthcare reform efforts. In order for compromise to occur, both sides will need to make an effort. An analysis of Americans’ responses to the two compromise questions finds 25% believing that both President Obama and

to being blamed for not making progress on the problems facing the country. Survey Methods

the Republicans in Congress will make a sincere effort to compromise with each other. Sixteen percent do not think either side will make an effort, while the remainder are more likely to think the president will make an effort while the Republicans will not.

If the two parties are unable or unwilling to compromise, Americans may prefer that the Republicans, rather than President Obama, prevail. When asked whom they want to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year, 49% say the Republicans in Congress and 41% say President Obama. These views are nearly identical to what Gallup measured in early 1995, the last time Republicans won a congressional majority while a Democratic president was in office. At that time, 49% wanted the Republicans in Congress to have more influence and 40% wanted President Bill Clinton to be more influential. In contrast, in 2006, after Democrats won back their congressional majorities while President George W. Bush was in office, 61% said they wanted the Democrats in Congress to have more influence, compared with 31% who favored Bush. Implications With the 2010 midterm elections now complete, the outcome of the 2012 elections for president and Congress may hinge largely on the ability of Congress and the president to work together to solve the nation’s problems over the next two years. The data suggest a possible dilemma for Republicans in Congress in this regard. Americans overall favor political leaders who seek compromise over sticking to their core beliefs, although to the extent Republicans in Congress take that approach, they may be straying from the views of their party’s core supporters. Indeed, many of the newly elected GOP members won the party’s nomination by promising to hold to core beliefs of limited government. President Obama may be in a slightly more comfortable position to compromise, given that his core Democratic supporters—as well as Americans overall—seem to favor that approach. Compromising on his part may also make Obama seem responsive to the will of the people as expressed in the 2010 midterms. However, he too has a delicate balance, as compromising too much could alienate his core supporters and open up the possibility of his being challenged by a liberal Democrat for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination; and not compromising enough could leave him vulnerable

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 10, 2010 BOEHNER’S IMAGE IMPROVES, REID’S DOES NOT AFTER MIDTERMS Four in 10 still unfamiliar with House Republican leader by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ opinions of House Republican Leader John Boehner, who is in line to be the speaker of the House in the new Congress, improved after the midterm elections. Though 4 in 10 Americans are still unfamiliar with Boehner, more Americans now rate him positively than negatively, a shift from three prior 2010 readings, including one taken in mid-October.

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These results are based on a Nov. 4-7 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted in the first few days after the midterm elections. Even after the big Republican gains in the House thrust Boehner into the national spotlight, 40% of Americans still do not know enough about him to have an opinion. However, that percentage has declined since July 2009. Boehner’s counterpart in the U.S. Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid, is somewhat better known, though one in three still do not have an opinion of him. Unlike Boehner, Reid is viewed much more negatively than positively. In the latest poll, 25% have a favorable opinion of Reid and 43% an unfavorable one. That is little changed from the prior measurement of Reid from May. Reid has been rated more positively in the past. Shortly after Democrats won control of the House and Senate in 2006, 27% of Americans had a favorable opinion of him and 19% an unfavorable opinion. That eight-point net positive rating matches Boehner’s current score. Positive opinions of Reid have been rather stable since November 2006, but his unfavorable ratings have grown considerably, moving to 30% after the 2008 elections and exceeding 40% in three separate readings this year.

That 20-point increase among Republicans for Boehner is twice as large as the increase Democrats gave Reid after the 2006 midterm elections, when his party moved from minority to majority status. Reid’s favorable ratings were unchanged among Republicans in 2006, while he had a slight increase of three points among independents. Implications Boehner will rise to the House speakership still relatively unknown, though that is sure to change as he attempts to govern along with a Democratic president and Democratic Senate. It is not clear what direction Boehner’s favorable and unfavorable ratings may take while he is speaker. Americans viewed past Speakers Nancy Pelosi and Dennis Hastert at least slightly more positively than negatively until frustration grew with their parties’ stewardship of the government. On the other hand, Americans’ opinions of Newt Gingrich quickly soured after he took over as speaker in 1995, and they remained that way throughout his tenure. Survey Methods

Republicans and Democrats have predictably different opinions of Boehner and Reid, with Republicans rating Boehner, and Democrats rating Reid, more positively. However, Republicans are far more negative toward Reid than Democrats are toward Boehner. Also, independents view Reid quite negatively, while they are more positive than negative in their views of Boehner.

The boost in Boehner’s image has come largely from Republicans, whose favorable ratings of him jumped by 20 points after the party’s successful election night showing. Independents’ views became slightly more positive, and Democrats’ opinions are largely unchanged.

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THE GALLUP POLL

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 11, 2010 AMERICANS’ WELLBEING REMAINS AT 2010 LOW Wellbeing has declined the most in the East by Dan Witters

Additionally, as thriving scores dropped, struggling scores increased in the East, Midwest, and West. While in May, Easterners were the least likely to be struggling, in October they are the most likely.

Americans’ Well-Being Index score of 66.5 in October statistically matches the 2010 low recorded in September, and is down from the three-year high of 67.4 in May. The nation’s wellbeing, however, exceeds the 66.1 found in October 2008, just after the onset of the financial crisis, and remains well above the levels from late 2008 and early 2009.

Gallup classifies Americans as thriving or struggling based on the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, which asks people to evaluate their present and future lives on a ladder scale, with steps numbered from 0 to 10, where 0 is the worst possible life and 10 is the best possible life. Those who are thriving rate their current life at least a “7” and their future life at least a “8,” while those who are suffering rate their current and future lives a “4” or lower, and those who are struggling are all others in between. Bottom Line

These findings are based on approximately 30,000 interviews conducted each month with Americans, aged 18 years and older, as a part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The index is composed of six sub-indexes that include 55 individual items that collectively measure Americans’ physical, emotional, and fiscal wellbeing. Greatest Declines in Wellbeing in the East Wellbeing scores dropped the most in the East in October compared with May, when the measure was at a 29-month high nationally. Wellbeing is down in all four regions, but the decline in the East is at least twice that in the Midwest, South, and West.

While certain seasonal aspects of wellbeing, such as exercising and reports of cold and flu, typically worsen throughout the country as winter approaches, Easterners’ declining wellbeing is also a result of more people downgrading how they rate their lives. Life evaluation scores—which Gallup uses to categorize Americans as “thriving,” “struggling,” or “suffering”—are eroding faster in the East than elsewhere in the country. The percentage of Americans living in the East who are thriving dropped 2.9 percentage points in October compared with May, roughly double the decline found in the Midwest and West and far more than the near absence of change in the South. In May, Americans living in the East were the most likely to be thriving and those in the South were the least likely; in October, the opposite is the case.

Americans’ wellbeing, particularly among those living in the East, has declined after reaching new highs in the late spring and early summer of this year. Some of the decline is the result of the seasonal effects of fall, during which people tend to exercise less, eat less fresh produce, and report more cases of cold and flu. Worsening evaluations of one’s own life, however, could reflect realities of and frustrations with other national or local conditions, including the economic or jobs situation. While wellbeing scores continue to track ahead of 2008, Americans are doing no better than they were in 2009. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2, 2008-Oct. 31, 2010, with a random sample of more than 1 million adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

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In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Currently, 29% of Democrats approve of the job Congress is doing, down from 38% in late October. Republicans’ current 9% approval is unchanged from late October, while independents’ rating, now at 13%, is down three percentage points. Approval Often Shifts as New Congresses Take Office

November 11, 2010 CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL AT 17% AFTER ELECTIONS Republicans’ approval likely to jump when GOP takes control of House by Frank Newport Congress’ approval is at 17% in November, down slightly from 21% before the midterm elections. Historical patterns from 1994 and 2006 suggest that congressional approval will remain relatively stable at these low levels until January, when Republicans can be expected to become more positive as their party takes control of the House.

Americans’ approval of Congress has remained relatively stable throughout 2010, ranging from a high of 24% in January to a low of 16% in March. The current 17% congressional approval rating, measured in Gallup’s Nov. 4-7 post-election survey, reflects a slight drop from two readings in October, but is little changed from the 18% and 19% ratings measured in September and August, respectively. The all-time low for congressional approval was 14% in July 2008. Democrats have consistently given Congress higher ratings than either Republicans or independents since President Obama and the then-newly elected Congress took office in February 2009. That pattern continues, although Democrats’ approval of Congress has now dropped to its lowest point since March, most likely in response to the Republican gains in the midterm elections.

Republicans won the House in the Nov. 2 elections, but history shows that the continuing low ratings of Congress among rank-andfile Republicans are likely to continue until the 112th Congress is seated in January. When the Republicans took over the House from the Democrats in 1994, Republicans’ approval of Congress remained low at 19% in December of that year, unchanged from October. But in January 1995, Republicans’ approval shot up to 45% and then rose further to 58% in February. As a result, and given fairly stable approval ratings of Congress among independents and Democrats across this time period, overall congressional job approval rose from 23% in December 1994 to 33% and 38% in January and February 1995, respectively.

Democrats wrested control of Congress back from the Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections, but there was little shift in Democrats’ approval of Congress from early November before the elections (12%) to mid-November, just after the elections (14%), and December (16%). But in January 2007, Democrats’ approval jumped to 39% and reached 44% by February of that year. In contrast to 1994, however, approval of Congress among those identifying with the party losing control of the House—Republicans, in this instance—began to slip immediately after the elections, dropping from 50% in early November to 32% by December. As a result, overall congressional approval dropped slightly, from 26% prior to the elections to 21% in December. Approval, however, jumped to 35% by January and 37% in February, fueled by the substantial increase in approval among Democrats.

In both 1994 and 2006, one party gained control of both houses of Congress; this year, the Republicans have won control of the House but the Democrats retain the Senate. Still, based on historical trends, it is probable that congressional approval will rise in January and in February, based on a projected increase in Republicans’ approval as their party officially takes control of the House.

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Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The healthcare law was a major achievement for this Congress but proved to be a symbol of anti-big-government sentiment that helped fuel the Tea Party movement and led to big Republican gains in Congress in the midterm elections. Republican leaders are now deciding what to do with the law after they take control of the U.S. House in January. Even if the House did pass legislation to repeal the healthcare law, the likelihood of its succeeding is slim, given a Democratic president and Democratic-controlled Senate. The Nov. 4-7 USA Today/Gallup poll finds that most Americans are generally dissatisfied with the law—20% describe it as “about right.” But less than a majority think it goes too far, and 10% favor repealing the legislation and not passing a new bill in its place. A substantial minority of 29% seem inclined to want to expand on what the current law does, saying it does not go far enough. That includes 46% of Democrats, but also 27% of independents and 12% of Republicans. Republicans are, not surprisingly, most likely to say the law goes too far. Half of Republicans would like to repeal the legislation and pass a new bill to replace it, while 20% favor repeal without new legislation.

November 12, 2010 FOUR IN 10 AMERICANS BELIEVE HEALTHCARE LAW GOES TOO FAR Twenty percent say the healthcare law is about right by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are most likely to say the healthcare law passed earlier this year goes too far (42%), while 29% say it does not go far enough and 20% say it is about right. Those who believe the law goes too far tend to favor repealing it and passing a new bill as opposed to scaling back the existing bill or repealing the law and not passing new legislation in its place.

Implications If the new Republican House majority attempts to repeal the healthcare law, it will be following the wishes of the party’s supporters. However, it is not clear whether the wider public would prefer that course of action. Americans in general do not seem to be overly satisfied with the healthcare overhaul, but the appetite for repealing it may not be as big as the midterm election results might suggest, given that less than a majority of Americans believe the legislation goes too far. Further, even most who think the bill goes too far still believe some new healthcare legislation should be passed in its place. Odds of a repeal effort’s succeeding in the next Congress are low, but the Republicans may decide not to fund key provisions of the bill to delay its implementation. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 12, 2010 AT 52%, PALIN’S UNFAVORABLE SCORE HITS A NEW HIGH Americans remain split in their reactions to Tea Party movement by Lydia Saad More than half of Americans, 52%, now view Sarah Palin unfavorably, the highest percentage holding a negative opinion of the former Alaska governor in Gallup polling since Sen. John McCain tapped her as the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee. Her 40% favorable rating ties her lowest favorable score, recorded just over a year ago.

The latest results come from a Nov. 4-7 Gallup poll, conducted shortly after the midterm elections delivered some big wins as well as losses for Tea Party movement candidates Palin had actively campaigned for in the past year. Palin’s image has consistently tilted negative since July 2009, and was nearly as negative in October 2009 as it is today. Public views on her were also more negative than positive just before the 2008 election, in which President Obama handily defeated the Republican ticket. By contrast, Americans’ initial reactions to Palin after her debut at the Republican National Convention that year were mostly favorable.

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Now that the 2010 midterms are over, the big question swirling around Palin is whether she will run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Given her high name recognition and broad popularity among Republicans, 80% of whom now view her favorably, she is clearly in a strong position to seek it. However, her negative image among the other party groups—81% of Democrats and 53% of independents view her unfavorably, while fewer than 4 in 10 view her favorably—casts some doubt on her viability in the general election.

After Midterms, More Americans Take a Stance on the Tea Party Although Palin is strongly associated with the national Tea Party movement, her decline in favorability is not mirrored in the post-election support Gallup finds for the Tea Party. About a third of Americans, 32%, now consider themselves to be Tea Party supporters, up slightly from the 26% saying this before the election, and one percentage point higher than the previous high on this measure. At the same time, 30% of Americans consider themselves opponents of the movement, tying the prior high.

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans, 65%, call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement in the latest poll, while 57% of Democrats are opponents of it. Independents are about evenly divided: 30% call themselves supporters and 25% say they are opponents. Bottom Line At the close of an eventful midterm election season that focused heavily on the Tea Party message and candidates, Americans remain broadly divided in their reactions to the Tea Party movement, while the majority now hold a negative image of Palin, one of the movement’s most visible proponents. In the process, Palin maintained her

already-positive image with Republicans while losing ground with independents and remaining widely unpopular with Democrats. The national Tea Party movement itself is also relatively polarizing, with about equal percentages of Americans calling themselves supporters and opponents. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Gallup did not measure party favorability shortly before the 1994 and 1998 midterm elections, so it is unclear whether those elections’ results altered Americans’ views of either political party. The current party ratings, from a Nov. 4-7 USA Today/Gallup poll, show that most Americans continue to view both the Demo cratic and Republican parties more negatively than positively. Americans’ recent ratings of the Democratic Party have been the worst for the party in this Gallup trend dating to 1992. Prior to 2010, Gallup had just one measurement (in February 2005) in which the Democratic Party’s unfavorable rating exceeded its favorable rating, and that was by one percentage point.

November 15, 2010 REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRATIC PARTY IMAGES STABLE AFTER MIDTERMS Americans’ views of both parties more negative than positive by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ opinions of the Republican Party are no better, and their opinions of the Democratic Party are no worse, after the recent midterm elections that saw Republicans make major gains in Congress. This contrasts with other recent midterm elections, in which at least one party’s favorable rating either improved or declined in the aftermath of the election. In 2006, after the Democrats took control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections, the party’s favorable rating increased from 52% to 57%, the highest Gallup has measured for the Democrats in the past seven years. The Republicans’ favorable rating did not drop significantly after the 2006 midterms, but their 37% rating in October was already down from 42% in September, likely the result of poor publicity surrounding the Mark Foley sex scandal. The Republican Party’s favorable rating did not improve after the party’s strong showing in the 2002 midterm elections, but the Democrats’ image took a big hit—falling from 58% to 48% favorable— after their party failed to gain seats, a rarity for the opposition party in a midterm election.

Americans’ opinions of the Republican Party have generally been worse than their opinions of the Democratic Party since 1992, particularly in the last five years. While the public continues to hold a net-negative view of the GOP, the current 45% favorable rating is one of its best since 2005, and is up 11 points since just after the 2008 presidential election.

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Implications Though it became clear early on that the 2010 midterm elections would likely favor the GOP, it was unclear whether Americans would be giving Republicans a mandate if their party became the majority party in Congress. Gallup data from the late summer and early fall suggested that Americans were more likely voting to register their frustration with the Democrats than as an endorsement of the Republican Party. Now that the elections are over, Americans are no more positive toward the GOP than they were before, further suggesting the public is not necessarily embracing the Republican Party. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 15, 2010 NOVEMBER CHRISTMAS SPENDING ESTIMATE OUTPACES 2009 Still, consumers are much more likely to say they will spend less than in 2009, rather than more

actual retail sales could improve by closer to 4%, similar to the longterm average.

A Relatively High 34% Will Spend “Less” on Gifts This Year Although the majority of Americans, 52%, say they will spend the same on gifts this year as in 2009, roughly a third of Americans, 34%, say they will spend less, compared with 12% saying they will spend more. That 22-percentage-point gap is nearly double the average 13point difference between these figures over the past 20 years—providing a note of caution to Americans’ dollar spending forecast. The current gap contrasts with a 39-point gap found in November 2008, amid the turmoil of the global economic collapse. However, in periods of relative economic prosperity, such as from 1995 through 2000, the figures were about even.

by Lydia Saad Americans currently predict they will spend $714 on Christmas gifts this year—well exceeding the $638 they forecast in November a year ago for the 2009 holiday season, but still trailing the pre-recessionary November forecasts recorded over most of the last decade. The findings are from a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, in which respondents were asked to predict the total amount they will spend on Christmas gifts this year. The current forecast is nearly identical to Americans’ October prediction of $715. According to Gallup modeling, if the figure holds at this level through December, that would point to a roughly 2% year-over-year increase in holiday sales. Further, if consumers’ spending estimate increases between November and December, as it typically does, 402

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Implications Consumers seem on track to increase their Christmas spending this year compared with 2009. The precise percentage increase is unclear,

and will likely be reflected in what Americans say about their giftbuying intentions in December. Historically, consumers’ estimates of their Christmas spending increase between November and December, and the amount of that increase will indicate whether retailers can expect modest growth or something closer to the average 4% increases enjoyed in the years prior to the latest economic downturn. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 16, 2010 JOBS CLIMB HIGHER ON AMERICANS’ TOP PROBLEMS LIST Economy, healthcare, dissatisfaction with government, and the deficit round out top five issues

The last time Americans named neither unemployment/jobs nor the economy as the nation’s top problem was January 2008, when Iraq topped the list. Concern About Unemployment and Jobs on the Rise Americans’ specific concern about unemployment has generally been on the increase over the last two years, from as low as 3% in October 2008 to the current 33%, concurrent with the rise in the U.S. unemployment rate, now at 9.6%. Mentions of unemployment also were high in 2003 and 2004, although not as high as in recent months.

by Frank Newport As the current Congress reconvenes this week for the first time since the midterm elections, the American people would most likely tell their representatives to focus on jobs, the economy in general, healthcare, the overall way the government works, and the federal budget deficit—in that order. These are the top five issues Americans name as the most important problems facing the country today. These results, from a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, mark the first time since April that mentions of jobs/unemployment have outpaced mentions of the economy in general when Americans are asked to name the top problem facing the nation. The employment situation and economic conditions have been the two most frequently mentioned problems in Gallup’s monthly updates all year, generally followed by healthcare and dissatisfaction with government. Americans’ concern about natural disasters flared up in the summer months as the BP oil spill dominated the news, but quickly faded.

More broadly, sizable proportions of Americans have named unemployment and jobs as the nation’s top problems at four historical points prior to the last decade. Two of these came just before and after World War II—in 1939 at the tail end of the Depression, and in the immediate post-World War II era from 1946-1948. The other two were in 1976 and 1977—the final year of Gerald Ford’s administration and the first year of Jimmy Carter’s—and in the early 1980s, the

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last time the nation’s unemployment rate was around 10%. At least half of Americans mentioned unemployment as the nation’s top problem in 1946 and in 1983.

November 16, 2010 NO EARLY FRONT-RUNNER FOR 2012 GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION Romney, Palin, Huckabee get greatest support at this point by Jeffrey M. Jones Rank-and-file Republicans have no clear favorite for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination when asked to choose among a large field of potential candidates. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are essentially tied for the lead, with Newt Gingrich close behind. Preferences have been largely stable since September, though Gingrich and Huckabee have seen modest increases.

Bottom Line Americans’ worries about jobs and the economy were clearly major factors in the outcome of the recent midterm elections, and will continue to be major factors in the public’s ongoing assessment of the job the new Congress is doing as it takes over in January. There is little doubt that elected representatives in Washington are aware of this stark reality. Still, there is a major distinction between recognizing that there is a problem, and figuring out what to do about it. One of the key challenges on Congress’ agenda will be the attempt to reconcile significant differences in approaches to fixing the economy, particularly including disagreement between partisan groups on just how involved the federal government should be in direct attempts to stimulate the economy and create jobs. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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Now that the midterm elections are over, the field for the Republican presidential nomination will begin to take shape. So far, no candidate has officially announced his or her intention to seek the nomination, though the 12 candidates Gallup tested are known or thought to be seriously considering a campaign, and none has ruled out running. Many have already made appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two states to hold presidential nominating contests. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has ruled out a run for president in 2012, but his name is nevertheless volunteered by 1% of Republicans. As is usually the case in early tests of candidate strength, the most well-known politicians fare best. Romney and Huckabee competed for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, and Palin was the party’s vice presidential nominee that year. Gingrich led the Republican efforts to win control of Congress in the 1994 elections and was speaker of the House. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels are among the Republicans who lack a strong national profile but could emerge as competitive candidates should they decide to run. None currently registers more than 4% support among Republicans nationwide. One way the candidates will attempt to distinguish themselves from their opponents in the campaign is by attempting to appeal to voters on the basis of ideology. At this early stage of the campaign,

there is little difference in support for the potential candidates by respondents’ political ideology. Huckabee and Gingrich currently have slightly greater appeal among conservative Republicans than among moderate or liberal Republicans, but not to a statistically significant degree.

In general, Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) are at least twice as likely to identify as conservative as they are to identify as moderate or liberal. Thus, it is crucial for any potential Republican candidate to appeal to conservatives, especially given the Tea Party movement’s influence in deciding nominations for Congress in 2010. The preferences of moderate and liberal Republicans could also prove important—if not decisive—to the extent that no candidate emerges as the favorite among conservative Republicans.

national adults includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 17, 2010 ACCESS STILL TOP HEALTH CONCERN IN U.S.; GOVERNMENT ROLE GAINS GROUND Government involvement in healthcare emerges as a relatively new concern by Lydia Saad Americans name healthcare access, followed by costs, as the most urgent health problems facing the country today, as they have in recent years. However, with the renewed debate over healthcare reform in 2009, and passage of President Obama’s reform bill in 2010, mentions of both issues have declined over the past two years, while a new concern—too much government involvement in healthcare—has emerged.

Implications The current results on Republicans’ presidential nomination preferences suggest the 2012 contest could be more wide open than any since the winners began to be determined largely through state primaries and caucuses in 1972. Since that time, there has typically been a clear Republican front-runner before the nominating campaign got underway, including Richard Nixon in 1972, Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and 1992, Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, and Rudy Giuliani in 2008. With the exception of Giuliani, the front-running candidate has prevailed. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 13-14, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 925 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample of 1,000

The latest results are from Gallup’s 2010 Health and Healthcare poll, conducted Nov. 4-7. The top five health problems Americans now mention as the most urgent are access to healthcare, healthcare costs, obesity, cancer, and government involvement in healthcare. Gallup formerly included mentions of government involvement in healthcare in the “access” category, but as of this poll established it as a separate issue and removed prior mentions of government involvement from the “access” trends. Beyond the top five issues, much smaller percentages of Americans mention heart disease, the flu, AIDS, diabetes, finding cures for diseases, or drug and alcohol abuse.

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phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

While debate over the 2009 healthcare bill was highly polarized, Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to cite healthcare costs as a top issue. Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic), however, are more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to mention access as the top health problem. Republicans are more likely to mention government involvement.

November 18, 2010 AMERICANS STILL PERCEIVE CRIME AS ON THE RISE Two-thirds say crime increasing in U.S., 49% in their local area by Jeffrey M. Jones Two-thirds of Americans say there is more crime in the United States than there was a year ago, reflecting Americans’ general tendency to perceive crime as increasing. Still, the percentage perceiving an increase in crime is below what Gallup measured in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but is higher than the levels from the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Gallup first asked Americans to name the most urgent health problem facing the country in 1987, when AIDS was the dominant answer and virtually no one mentioned access or costs. Regular updates since then, including annual measures since 1999, document the gradual decline of AIDS as a top problem during the 1990s and early 2000s, the rise of healthcare costs as an issue between 1991 and 1992, mounting concerns about healthcare access after 2001, and a gradual increase in concerns about obesity over the past decade. Cancer has also consistently figured among Americans’ toprated problems. The flu has twice emerged as a major concern, but only when specific flu strains have attracted widespread publicity, as with the bird flu scare in 2005 and the H1N1 virus in 2009. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

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Americans are somewhat more positive about the trend in crime in their local area, but still are more likely to see it going up than going down.

These trends, based on Gallup’s annual Crime survey, come at a time when both the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics recently reported drops in property and violent crime from 2008 to 2009 in separate studies, as well as documenting longer-term declines in both types of crime. Though the latest Gallup estimates, from an Oct. 710, 2010, survey, would reflect a more up-to-date assessment of the crime situation than those reports do, Americans were also likely to perceive crime as increasing both locally and nationally in the 2009 Gallup Crime survey. The apparent contradiction in assessments of the crime situation stems from Americans’ general tendency to view crime as increasing. That said, the percentage holding this view appears to be higher when crime actually is increasing, as in the late 1980s and early 1990s, than when it is not. Americans’ perceptions of crime may also be influenced by their general assessments of how things are going in the country. Americans generally believe the crime situation to be better when their satisfaction with national conditions is high, as in the late 1990s, when the economy was strong, and in the wake of the 9/11 terror attacks, when patriotism and support for political leaders surged. Thus, the current estimates of increasing crime may to some degree be inflated due to widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the U.S. today. Apart from whether the crime rate is increasing, 60% of Americans believe the crime problem in the U.S. is “extremely” or “very serious,” up from 55% in 2009 and tied for the highest Gallup has measured since 2000. A majority of Americans have typically rated the U.S. crime problem as extremely or very serious in the 11-year history of this question. As is usually the case, Americans are much less concerned about the crime problem in their local area, as 13% say the crime problem is extremely or very serious where they live.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 18, 2010 U.S. STILL SPLIT ON WHETHER GOVERNMENT SHOULD ENSURE HEALTHCARE But continues to support health system based on private insurance by Frank Newport Continuing a change in attitudes first seen last year, Americans remain split on the issue of whether it is the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. At the same time, 61% prefer a healthcare system based mostly on private insurance rather than a government-run system.

Americans who have been victimized by crime in the past 12 months are about twice as likely as those who have not been victimized to describe the crime problem in their local area as very serious (18% to 10%). Crime victims are also substantially more likely to perceive crime as increasing in their local area (62% to 43%). However, being a victim of crime bears little relationship to the way one perceives the crime situation in the U.S. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling.

These latest results, from the Nov. 4-7 Gallup Health and Healthcare update, come as the debate over the government’s role in providing healthcare remains a central issue confronting Congress. The new healthcare reform bill passed into law last March quickly became a symbol for many Republicans of an overextension of government

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power into Americans’ lives. Republican leaders have vowed to repeal the law in the next session of Congress—although recent Gallup polling shows mixed public sentiments on that front. These two broad questions on the government’s role in healthcare trend back to the early 2000s, and are not designed to measure reactions to the healthcare reform bill per se. They do, however, provide valuable insights into the attitudinal context surrounding the continuing debate about healthcare reform legislation. Americans for the first time shifted against the “government responsibility” stance last year, as the debate about the form and substance of healthcare reform was accelerating.

This question does not ask about direct government provision of healthcare, but rather about government responsibility for ensuring that Americans have healthcare coverage. It would in theory be possible for one to agree that the government should make sure all Americans have healthcare without favoring a government-run system—in similar fashion to the way the government requires motorists to have automobile liability insurance, even though it does not directly provide such insurance. Majority Favor a Private Health Insurance-Based System Gallup has asked Americans since 2001 if they preferred a government-run healthcare system or a private insurance-based system. Prior to this year, the question asked about “replacing” the current system with a government-run system. This year, the question was modified to ask more generally which type of system Americans prefer. Despite this change in wording, this year’s results are essentially identical to last year’s, with 61% preferring a system based on private health insurance. Before 2009, Gallup’s annual November updates showed some fluctuation in responses, although preference for a private health insurance-based system has always outpaced preference for a government-run system. Implications Support is not strong in America today for a broad, government-run healthcare system similar to those in operation in Canada, as well as Great Britain and other European countries. A clear majority of Americans continue to support the idea of a healthcare system based on private insurance. In that sense, the healthcare reform bill is in sync with American public opinion. In the end, supporters backed off from including in the broader bill a “government option” health plan that was advocated by some who wanted expanded government coverage. At the same time, some opponents of the bill continue to argue that taken as a whole, it moves the country significantly closer to a type of government-run system.

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The healthcare bill did mandate, in various ways, expanding healthcare coverage to tens of millions of Americans who otherwise would not be covered. That type of government action to ensure that Americans have healthcare coverage would be applauded by about half of Americans, but at this point, about the same percentage would argue that it is not the government’s role to see that all Americans are covered. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 19, 2010 RATINGS OF U.S. HEALTHCARE QUALITY, COVERAGE BEST IN 10 YEARS Three-quarters remain dissatisfied with costs by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ assessments of healthcare quality and coverage in the U.S. are the most positive Gallup has measured in the last 10 years. The public continues to be much more optimistic about quality than about coverage.

what Gallup measured last year and in most years since the question was first asked in 1994. The exception was in late 2001, when Americans’ surge in support for government leaders and public institutions after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks may have led to a more upbeat assessment of the healthcare system.

These results are based on Gallup’s annual Health and Healthcare poll, conducted Nov. 4-7 this year, and mark the first updates on these questions since the Obama administration and the Democrats in Congress passed major healthcare legislation earlier in 2010. Some of the provisions of this legislation have already taken effect, though many others will not be in place for a few years. The legislation’s passage does not appear to have had a large, short-term impact on how Americans view the U.S. healthcare system, given only at best modest increases since last year in ratings of U.S. healthcare coverage and quality. However, Americans’ perceptions of both healthcare quality and coverage are the best Gallup has measured since 2001, the first year the Health and Healthcare poll was conducted. The 62% of Americans who now rate the quality of healthcare in the U.S. as excellent or good is four percentage points higher than last year. A majority of Americans have consistently rated the quality of U.S. healthcare positively, though in 2005 and 2006, a low of 53% held this view. Meanwhile, the 39% of Americans who rate healthcare coverage as excellent or good is essentially the same percentage as last year (38%), though it is nearly double the 2005 percentage (21%). The increase in positive ratings occurred largely between 2008 (26%) and 2009 (38%), coinciding with the Democratic efforts to expand healthcare coverage to more Americans that began in earnest in the summer of 2009, though the legislation did not became law until March of this year. The poll also finds that healthcare costs remain a concern for Americans—23% are satisfied and 76% dissatisfied with the total cost of healthcare in the U.S. On a relative basis, Americans are somewhat more satisfied with U.S. healthcare costs than they have been in recent years, but only as many as 28% have expressed satisfaction with U.S. healthcare costs in the past 10 years. Lawmakers’ passage of healthcare reform has apparently done little to ease Americans’ minds about the problems facing the healthcare system. The 72% of Americans who this year say the system is in a state of crisis (17%) or has major problems (55%) is similar to

Implications Americans’ assessments of the healthcare situation in the United States have improved in comparison with prior years in some respects, particularly in terms of healthcare coverage. The new law should expand coverage to a larger percentage of Americans, though its impact on healthcare costs and quality is far less predictable. To the extent the law is implemented in the coming years, and depending on how effective it ultimately is in achieving its goals, it certainly could affect Americans’ perceptions of healthcare quality, coverage, cost, and whether the system continues to have major problems. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Hiring Also Much Higher at the Federal Government The federal government is hiring more employees than it is letting go, while the opposite is true for state and local governments. More than 4 in 10 federal employees (42%) say their organizations are adding people and 21% say they are letting workers go. In contrast, state and local government employees report a net loss of workers.

November 19, 2010 LARGER U.S. COMPANIES ARE HIRING; SMALLEST ARE NOT Federal hiring remains strong, while state and local governments continue to let people go

That pattern has been consistent throughout the year—with net gains in federal hiring and net losses in state and local government hiring.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

Gallup’s Job Creation Index, based on employees’ reports of hiring and letting go at their places of work, shows job market conditions keeping pace with the best monthly level of 2010 during the first two weeks of November. Still, improvement has been marginal at best since August, and the job situation remains about where it was in October 2008 as the financial crisis was underway. This is probably one reason unemployment tops Americans’ list of the most important problems facing the country today. Gallup data suggest that part of the jobs problem continues to be centered in state and local governments. Unlike the federal government, these entities need to adjust their employment to their declining revenues. As a result, their employment situation is likely to reflect the economic downturn for some time to come, because state and local revenues tend to trail economic upturns. Another part of the problem involves the nation’s smallest businesses. The entrepreneurs who tend to run these businesses appear to be having a particularly difficult time in 2010. Getting jobs growing in this area is essential to the achievement of a real jobs recovery. In turn, this suggests that encouraging entrepreneurship should be a top U.S. priority going forward. Finally, for those looking for a job, it appears larger companies are the best bet in the private sector, and the federal government in the public sector.

Gallup’s Job Creation Index was at +10 during the week ending Nov. 14, with 29% of employees reporting that their employer is hiring and 19% saying their employer is letting people go, matching the best monthly performance of 2010.

Gallup finds that larger companies are hiring more workers while the smallest businesses are shedding jobs. More than 4 in 10 employees (42%) at workplaces with at least 1,000 employees reported during the week ending Nov. 14 that their company was hiring, while 22% said their employer was letting people go. At the other extreme, 9% of workers in businesses with fewer than 10 employees said their employer was hiring, and 16% said their employer was letting people go. This Gallup question about company size is new, so it is unclear whether this pattern is a continuation of, or a change from, the past.

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Commentary

Survey Methods For Gallup Daily tracking, Gallup interviews approximately 1,000 national adults, aged 18 and older, each day. The Gallup Job Creation Index results are based on a random sample of approximately 500 current full- and part-time employees each day. National results for the week ending Nov. 14 are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 3,991 employees. For this

sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. Results for businesses by size for the week ending Nov. 14 are based on interviews totaling about 1,000. For each total segment sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 22, 2010 AMERICANS’ RATINGS OF OWN HEALTHCARE QUALITY REMAIN HIGH Positive evaluations of own healthcare increase with income and age by Lydia Saad Americans’ evaluations of the quality of their own healthcare are among the most positive Gallup has found over the past decade, with 40% rating their healthcare as excellent, slightly higher than the previous high of 38% as well as the average of 34% over the past decade. A combined 82% rate their healthcare as either excellent or good, which is on par with previous years.

The national debate over healthcare reform in the past two years focused mainly on improving access to health insurance as well as on lowering costs. As Congress considers further changes to U.S. healthcare policy, or possibly scaling back the new law, it is impor-

tant to bear in mind that the vast majority of Americans, overall, believe they are getting at least good quality healthcare under the current system. These results are from Gallup’s annual Health and Healthcare survey, conducted each November. An analysis of data from 2006 through 2010, encompassing more than 5,000 interviews with U.S. national adults, reveals that those with either private or government health insurance are far more upbeat about the quality of their healthcare than are those with no health insurance. Further, the slight majority of those with no health insurance also say the quality of care they receive is either excellent or good, although a relatively scant 14% call it excellent.

Higher-Income Americans Rate Their Healthcare More Positively Naturally, perceptions about the quality of one’s healthcare are related to household income, because household income is related to access to health insurance. However, even among adults with private health insurance, positive evaluations of one’s healthcare increase with income, from 77% among those making less than $30,000 a year to 92% among those making $75,000 or more. A similar income pattern is seen among Medicare/Medicaid recipients, as well as among the uninsured. This may be the result of either upper-income Americans’ ability to afford better plans, or their comparatively better health status. Still, the vast majority of insured Americans, regardless of income, as well as about half of uninsured Americans, give high marks to the quality of care they receive.

Beyond these factors, Gallup also finds that, regardless of income, older Americans are generally more satisfied with the quality of their healthcare than are younger Americans. This is particularly true among those living in low- and middle-income households.

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Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Rate of Delaying Treatment Remains Elevated Americans’ evaluations of their own healthcare are broadly positive, and, in terms of the percentage rating it “excellent,” have generally improved since 2001. Over the same period, however, the percentage reporting that they or a family member has put off treatment because of cost increased from 19% in 2001 to 30% in 2006, and has generally remained at that level since. A record-high 21% now say they put off treatment for a serious condition.

November 22, 2010 IN U.S., CONTINUING RECORD-LOW SUPPORT FOR STRICTER GUN CONTROL Fewer than 3 in 10 support law banning handguns except for police and authorized personnel by Frank Newport For the second year in a row, a record-low 44% of Americans say laws governing the sale of firearms should be made more strict, while 42% say gun laws should be kept as they are now. Twelve percent say gun laws should be made less strict.

Bottom Line The U.S. healthcare system has come under scrutiny in recent years because of the high number of Americans who lack health insurance— a figure Gallup-Healthways puts at 16%—as well as rising costs. Nevertheless, the majority of Americans, including those without health insurance, appear content with the quality of care they receive, suggesting there is much to be preserved in the current system. Whether that persists if costs continue to rise, thus discouraging even some insured Americans from seeking needed medical attention, remains to be seen. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. 412

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Americans’ support for stricter gun control laws has gradually declined over the last two decades, from 78% when this question was first asked in 1990 to 49% in 2008, and 44% in 2009 and again this year. As support for stricter gun laws has decreased, support for keeping gun laws as they are now has increased, from 17% in 1990 to 42% now. The percentage of Americans favoring less strict gun control laws has remained relatively stable over the last 20 years, and is now at 12%. These results are based on Gallup’s annual Crime Poll, conducted Oct. 7-10 this year. Americans are also less likely to say there should be a law banning the possession of handguns except by the police and other authorized persons. The current 29% who favor such a law is within one percentage point of the low of 28% recorded last year, down from 60% when Gallup first asked this question in 1959—the only time when a majority favored such a ban. Support has been below 40% every year since 1993. Democrats, Liberals Most in Favor of Stricter Gun Laws The most significant differences in support for stricter gun laws are along political lines. More than 6 in 10 Democrats and liberals favor

stricter gun laws—compared with 31% and 26% among conservatives and Republicans, respectively. Other groups expressing greater-than-average support for stricter gun laws include women, those living in the East, nonwhites, those with postgraduate educations, and those living in households without guns.

the increased support among Americans for keeping gun laws as they are, the trend away from support for increased gun control was evident long before Obama appeared on the political scene. The drop in support for stricter gun laws does not appear to be related to perceptions of the crime situation in the U.S. Americans’ views that crime was increasing did abate in Gallup’s 1990 through 2002 research, even as Americans became less likely to support stricter gun control laws. But that pattern reversed itself thereafter, reaching a recent high of 74% in 2008—while support for stricter gun laws fell to its record low point. Only 1% of Americans mention gun control as America’s most important problem at this time, and even fewer mention crime. Thus, although there is majority support for stricter gun laws among both Democrats and liberals, it appears that there will not be pressure to make this a high-priority issue for the leaders of these political groups in the months ahead. The political agenda is instead likely to focus mainly on the economy and jobs, the issues that Americans overwhelmingly perceive as the top problems facing the country. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Implications Americans are holding firm to their record-low level of support for making gun laws stricter, with virtually no change from last year. Additionally, less than a third of Americans support a law banning possession of handguns for individuals beyond police and other authorized persons—similar to the record-low levels of support for this type of law found over the past three years. Gallup research last year showed that more than 4 in 10 Americans believed President Obama was planning to ban the sale of guns in the U.S. While this perception may be part of the explanation for

November 23, 2010 IN U.S., TAX ISSUES RANK AS TOP PRIORITY FOR LAME-DUCK CONGRESS Americans most likely to say extending tax cuts, dealing with estate tax very important by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are most likely to say it is important for Congress to pass legislation to keep the estate tax from increasing significantly next year and to extend the income tax cuts passed under George W. Bush

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before the end of the year. Just under half say it is important for Congress to extend unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed.

The Nov. 19-21 USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans to rate the importance of six possible actions Congress may take between now and the end of the year, during its “lame duck” session prior to the new Congress’ taking office at the beginning of 2011. Of these, taxes appear to be Americans’ highest priority. That could be in part because tax rates would change significantly for 2011 if Congress does not act by the end of this year. The income tax cuts that were a centerpiece of the Bush economic plan are set to expire at the end of this year unless Congress acts to extend them. Most in Congress seem to support at least a temporary extension, though there is disagreement as to whether any extension should apply to upper-income Americans, in addition to middle-income Americans. Also, Congress suspended the estate tax for this year, but it is scheduled to go back into effect in 2011 at a higher rate than previously was the case, unless Congress votes otherwise. Aside from taxes, Americans also believe it is important for Congress to extend unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, which will also expire without further congressional action. The House of Representatives last week defeated a bill that would have extended unemployment compensation before the benefits run out for some Americans on Nov. 30, because of concerns about how the bill would be funded. Americans seem somewhat less enthusiastic about other policies the Obama administration hopes to get passed by the end of the year, including repealing the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy that prohibits openly gay men and women from serving in the U.S. military, and passing the “DREAM” Act that would provide a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants living in the U.S. who were brought to the country as children. Fewer than one in three say it is very important for Congress to do each by the end of the year. Four in 10 believe it is very important for Congress to ratify the START treaty that would lead to reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons. Republican, Democratic Priorities Do Not Align Priorities for Congress differ significantly by party. Close to 7 in 10 Republicans say it is very important to extend the income tax cuts and to prevent the estate tax from increasing significantly. Only half

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as many Republicans rate any of the other issues as extremely important. Extending unemployment benefits is easily Democrats’ top priority. Half of Democrats say it is very important to ratify the START nuclear arms treaty with Russia.

Republicans’ and Democrats’ priorities differ most on extending the income tax cuts and extending unemployment benefits. In general, independents’ priorities mirror those for all Americans. Implications Americans appear eager for Congress to take action on tax issues and unemployment benefits before the end of the year. This lame-duck session for Congress promises to be eventful regardless of how the pressing issues it must address are ultimately decided. Until the end of the year, the Democratic Party will maintain large majorities in both houses of Congress, although the results of the midterm elections may give Democratic members pause as to how they choose to address some of these issues. There does appear to be consensus among both parties in Congress to extend unemployment benefits and to extend the income tax cuts, though currently not enough agreement on the details of how to accomplish these. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 23, 2010 MOST U.S. AIR TRAVELERS OK SACRIFICING PRIVACY FOR SECURITY Frequent travelers largely OK with body scans, more negative on pat-downs

them—suggesting that the prospect of the procedure is more bothersome than the reality. Americans’ greater comfort with the body scan procedure over the full-body pat-down is evident, as 75% of frequent air travelers say they would choose a full-body scan over a full-body pat-down when going through security; 22% would choose a pat-down. Regardless of their preferences and whether they had personally undergone one of these procedures, Gallup asked frequent air travelers how effective they perceived these tactics to be at preventing terrorists from smuggling dangerous objects or explosives on board airplanes. Frequent travelers tend to agree that the full-body scans are more effective than other search methods, but are evenly split on the pat-downs. This basic breakdown persists among those who have undergone the procedures.

by Lymari Morales Despite a reported uproar about full-body screening procedures now in broader use at U.S. airports and calls for a boycott, Gallup finds that relatively few frequent U.S. air travelers are angry about the new procedures or inclined to cut back on flying as a result. The large majority (71%) of air travelers who have flown at least twice in the past year say any potential loss of personal privacy from the fullbody scans and pat-downs is worth it as a means of preventing acts of terrorism. Overall, relatively few travelers appear fazed enough by the security screenings to change their travel plans. Fewer than 2 in 10 (19%) say they are more likely now than in the past to use alternative means of transportation to avoid the hassles associated with air travel, while 79% say they are just as likely to fly as in the past. These views are no worse than when the increased use of full-body scans began in January. The results are from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, in which 23% of respondents say they have flown two or more times in the past year. The majority of Americans (62%) say they have not flown at all in the past 12 months, and 15% have flown once. Gallup asked those who have flown two or more times in the past year about the full-body scans and pat-downs the Transportation Security Administration is now using at many U.S. airports as a means to prevent acts of terrorism. The majority (57%) say they are not bothered by the prospect of undergoing a full-body scan at airport security checkpoints. The same percentage, however, say they are bothered, if not angry, about the prospect of undergoing a fullbody pat-down. Still, fewer than one in three frequent air travelers are “angry” about undergoing either procedure.

About one in four (24%) frequent travelers Gallup surveyed say they have already undergone a full-body scan this year, and 15% say they have undergone a pat-down. Notably, more than two-thirds of those who had actually undergone the screening say it did not bother

Implications Attitudes among frequent U.S. air travelers suggest that the reported uproar over the use of full-body scans and pat-downs at U.S. airports does not reflect how most air travelers feel. The majority are not bothered by the use of full-body scans, which most travelers would choose over the full-body pat-downs they tend to find objectionable and less effective at preventing terrorism. Further, in both cases, those who have already undergone such procedures are less likely to have been bothered or angry than those who have not, suggesting that the prospect of such a screening is more upsetting than the reality. The large majority of frequent travelers say any potential loss of privacy is worth it to prevent acts of terrorism, which suggests that most Americans accept the Homeland Security Department’s rationale for using these tactics. Airlines can also find solace in that air travelers appear no less likely to use other means of travel than they were at the start of the year, when the use of these procedures was less common.

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Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 3,018 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points. For results based on the sample of 757 frequent air travelers (those who have flown twice or more in the past year), one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 24, 2010 TEA PARTY LEGISLATORS RIVAL OBAMA AS PREFERRED POLICY LEADER Americans prefer each more than Republican or Democratic leaders in Congress by Lydia Saad Americans are as likely to want Tea Party-backed Republican members of Congress to have the most influence over federal policies in the coming year as they are to prefer President Barack Obama. The Democratic leaders in Congress rank last in this regard, behind the Republican leaders.

The 27% of Americans preferring Tea Party Republicans on this measure roughly matches the percentage telling Gallup throughout 2010 that they are supporters of the Tea Party movement—26% in a recent pre-election survey. Looking more broadly at the partisan balance of the results, 50% of Americans want either the Republican leaders in Congress or the Republican members supported by the Tea Party movement to have the most influence on the nation’s policies. That is slightly more than the 44% choosing either Obama or the Democratic leaders. These results mirror the 49% to 41% split in favor of Republicans that Gallup recently found when asking Americans whether they want Obama or the Republicans in Congress to have more influence over the direction the country takes in the next year. Independents Boost Tea Party Strength Independents’ as well as Republicans’ views push Tea Party Republicans high on the list. While about a quarter of political independents would prefer that Obama have the most influence on policy matters, and a similar percentage choose the Republican leaders, the largest percentage, 32%, choose Tea Party Republicans. Rank-and-file Republicans are about evenly divided between wanting Republican members of Congress supported by the Tea Party and the Republican leaders in Congress to have the most influence: 44% vs. 42%, respectively. By contrast, Democrats clearly prefer President Obama to the Democratic leaders in Congress, in terms of who should prevail on policy.

A Risk of Overreaching The Tea Party movement’s manifesto includes rolling back many of President Obama’s domestic policy victories, particularly healthcare reform. However, slightly more Americans are concerned that the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives will go too far in reversing the Democrats’ policies than are worried it will not go far enough, 50% vs. 43%. Naturally, most Democrats worry that the Republicans will go too far in reversing the Democrats’ policies, and most Republicans worry that they will not go far enough. In a nod to the Democrats’ position, the slight majority of independents, 51%, say they are more concerned about the Republicans’ going too far. Also, the vast majority of Americans who want either Obama or the Democrats in Congress to have the most influence on policy are concerned that the Republicans will go too far in trying to reverse the Democrats’ policies. Roughly three-quarters of each group say this is their greater concern. By contrast, those who want the Republican leadership to direct policy are less resolute about undoing the Obama agenda than are those who back the Tea Party Republicans, 60% vs. 74%. Bottom Line As if having two political parties vying for power in Congress in the next session won’t be challenging enough, the Tea Party movement

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November 24, 2010 IN U.S., 62% EXCEED IDEAL WEIGHT, 19% AT THEIR GOAL Majority would like to lose weight, but 27% are seriously attempting to do so by Elizabeth Mendes More than 6 in 10 Americans weigh more than they would ideally like to, while fewer than 2 in 10 are at their ideal weight, according to their self-reports of how much they weigh. Few Americans are under their ideal weight. Americans, on average, report that they weigh 177 pounds, but would like to weigh 161.

has emerged as a potent third wheel with a legitimate claim for demanding a strong voice in decision making. While Americans’ preferences are generally splintered, they are more likely to want Tea Party Republicans, rather than either Republican or Democratic leaders, to direct the nation’s policy decisions—a fact the Republican leadership, in particular, apparently ignores at its peril. At the same time, the percentage of independents and traditional Republicans who are wary of an aggressive effort to reverse recently enacted Democratic policies is enough to result in more Americans fearing the Republicans will go too far in this regard than fearing they will not go far enough. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Women weigh an average of 19 pounds more than their ideal and men an average of 12, based on self-reports of how much they weigh. Gallup’s long-term trend on these measures has consistently found a bigger difference between the average woman’s actual and ideal weight than there is for the average man. These results are from Gallup’s annual Health and Healthcare survey, conducted each November. The poll assesses Americans’ attitudes about their weight and their weight-loss behaviors, and does not attempt to calculate obesity rates. In separate Daily polling, Gallup tracks Americans’ self-reported height and weight, and computes body mass index (BMI) scores, as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. These BMI calculations find that 62.6% of Americans are either overweight or obese (36% are overweight and 26.6% are obese)—essentially matching the 62% who are overweight, according to self-reports of actual versus ideal weight. Both figures, however, far exceed the percentage of Americans who personally describe themselves as overweight—38% in the Nov. 4-7 Health and Healthcare survey. The large majority of Americans describe their weight as “about right.”

Americans who are slightly overweight by objective measures may be less likely to go so far as to describe themselves as overweight, which could be why there is such a great disconnect between the percentage who are over their ideal weight and the percentage who describe themselves as such. In fact, 22% of Americans are over their self-reported ideal weight by only 1 to 10 pounds. Additionally, Americans may be reluctant to use the word “overweight” to describe their situation, even if they acknowledge that their actual weight is higher than their ideal weight. PUBLIC OPINION 2010

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More Americans Want to Lose Weight Than Are Seriously Trying To More than half of Americans (54%) say they want to lose weight, and 27% say they are seriously trying to do so. These figures are similar to those from past years. Significantly, more Americans say they want to lose weight than describe themselves as overweight. This discrepancy may again point to Americans’ reluctance to use the term “overweight” to describe their situation, even as they recognize that their actual weight is higher than their ideal weight, and acknowledge that they would like to lose weight. Women tend to be more likely to want to shed extra pounds and take action toward that goal. Sixty-one percent of women say they would like to lose weight, compared with 45% of men. And more women than men—32% vs. 21%—are seriously trying to lose weight.

The gender differences in weight-loss desires and intentions could reflect the higher percentage of women than men who exceed their reported ideal weight, but are also likely the result of societal norms or social pressures about weight and body image that are different for men than for women, or perhaps affect men and women differently. Bottom Line While the majority of Americans weigh more than their ideal and say they would like to lose weight, a minority report that they are seriously trying to drop pounds. Historically, far more Americans have reported being over their ideal weight than have said they are making a serious attempt to lose weight. This perpetual disconnect underscores the difficulties many Americans face in trying to slim down. It also highlights one of the key problems in reducing obesity nationwide: Although many Americans are aware that they weigh more than they should, most are not taking action to make a change. On the other hand, the 38% of Americans who choose to describe themselves as overweight is fairly close to the 27% who say they are seriously trying to lose weight. Indeed, 50% of those who say they are overweight also say they are seriously trying to lose weight—so those who are more likely to need to lose weight are also more likely to be trying to do something about it. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Gallup surveyed 520 men and 501 women. For results based on gender, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. 418

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Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 29, 2010 AMERICANS LESS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT U.S. PROGRESS IN AFGHANISTAN Forty-five percent say things are going well for the U.S. in Afghanistan by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are more positive about U.S. progress in the war in Afghanistan now than at any point in the past year. Forty-five percent say things are going well for the U.S. there, the highest percentage since July 2009, and one of the more positive evaluations in the last four years. Still, the majority of 54% believe things are going badly for the U.S.

The results are based on a Nov. 19-21 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted before the Pentagon’s Nov. 23 report characterized U.S. progress in Afghanistan as “uneven.” Americans’ current assessments of U.S. progress in Afghanistan are significantly better than the low point from last November. At that time, just before President Obama laid out his new policy on Afghanistan, 32% said things were going well for the U.S. there. Obama’s policy called for an increase in U.S. troops in Afghanistan in the short term, but a plan to begin withdrawal in July 2011. The administration now is shifting the emphasis to removing

U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 as opposed to the earlier emphasis on when withdrawal would begin. Given a choice, 20% of Americans favor the plan of having U.S. combat troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014, but roughly twice as many would prefer either a speedier U.S. exit (38%) or not setting a timetable at all (40%). Self-identified Democrats are most likely to back Obama’s timetable, but many more prefer withdrawing U.S. combat troops before 2014. Most Republicans would prefer that no timetable be set. Independents divide evenly between not setting a timetable and withdrawing troops before 2014.

Americans continue to be more supportive of the Afghanistan war than the war in Iraq. The last time Gallup asked the same “mistake” question about Iraq, in August, 41% said the Iraq war was not a mistake and 55% said it was. Afghanistan war support continues to vary significantly by party identification, with 75% of Republicans, 54% of independents, and 46% of Democrats saying the war was not a mistake. Implications Despite the long-term commitment of U.S. troops and resources, Americans continue to back the war in Afghanistan, even as they are more likely to believe things are going badly rather than well for the U.S. there. But Americans are more optimistic about U.S. progress now than at any point in the past year, perhaps owing to accounts of some recent U.S. successes there, some of which came after the time period (through the end of September) covered in the Pentagon report. Whether Americans’ greater optimism continues could depend on the White House review of Afghanistan policy scheduled for December. Survey Methods

More generally, 44% of Americans say they approve and 49% disapprove of the way Obama is handling the situation in Afghanistan. That is up from 36% approval in late July/early August, when support for the war dropped after there were leaks of classified military documents detailing some troubling accounts of the U.S. conduct of the war on an Internet site called WikiLeaks. But Obama’s Afghanistan approval rating is down slightly from the 48% registered in February, the first measurement after Obama’s new Afghanistan policy was announced. U.S. military action in Afghanistan, the initial military response to the 9/11 terror attacks, has become one of the longest U.S. military engagements in the nation’s history. The surge in troops has also increased the U.S. commitment significantly. Currently, 68% of Americans say they are very (31%) or somewhat (37%) worried that the costs of the war will make it difficult for the U.S. to address its domestic problems. More generally, support for the war effort overall is on the low end of what Gallup has measured since 2001, with 58% saying the United States did not make a mistake in sending troops to Afghanistan. That is, however, an improvement from the late summer, after the WikiLeaks controversy, when support dipped to 52%.

Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 29, 2010 THANKSGIVING WEEK SPENDING TOPS 2009 Daily spending during the three days spanning Black Friday higher than a year ago by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist American consumers reported spending more in the days spanning Black Friday and during Thanksgiving week this year than they did last year. Self-reported daily consumer spending in stores, restau-

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rants, gas stations, and online averaged $92 per day in the three days ending Saturday, Nov. 27—up from $83 a year ago, and essentially the same as the $90 of 2008.

Consumer spending in the days leading up to Thanksgiving this year was higher than at the same time in 2009, and remained higher during the Gallup three-day rolling average spanning Black Friday, from Thursday through Saturday. While spending in 2010 for these three days matches that of the same period in 2008, it trails 2008 comparables for the days immediately before Thanksgiving. Implications Self-reported consumer spending for the days leading up to Black Friday and for the first few days of the Christmas shopping season should be encouraging to retailers and for the economy as a whole. It is also consistent with Gallup’s early November finding that sales are likely to be better this holiday season than in 2009. Retailers have been aggressive this year. Some were open on Thanksgiving Day and most pursued heavy promotion and price discounting. Still, the ultimate success of this holiday sales season will depend on whether consumers continue spending throughout the weeks ahead. In this regard, holiday spending could get a boost if Friday’s jobs report contains good news.

cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 30, 2010 AMERICANS PRIORITIZE DEFICIT REDUCTION AS AN ECONOMIC STRATEGY Prefer deficit reduction to raising taxes on wealthy or tax cuts by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans are most likely to choose deficit and debt reduction as the best approach for dealing with the economy over three widely discussed alternatives: raising taxes on the wealthy, cutting taxes, and increasing stimulus spending.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking during the period of Monday to Saturday prior to Black Friday in 2008-2010, with random three-day samples averaging about 1,500 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the three-day samples averaging 1,500 or more national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, 420

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These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Nov. 19-21 as the U.S. economy continues to suffer from sluggish growth and high unemployment. Americans do not show a strong consensus for any of the approaches, but clearly reject additional economic stimulus spending. The increased government spending in late 2008/early 2009 to bail out major U.S. corporations and attempt to jump-start the economy concerned many Americans and helped fuel the Tea Party movement, leading to significant Democratic losses in Congress in the midterm elections. That concern is also reflected in

Americans’ endorsing deficit reduction as an economic strategy over generally popular approaches like tax cuts or tax hikes on the wealthy. Both independents and Republicans choose deficit reduction as the preferred economic approach. Republicans even choose it over tax cuts, a core Republican Party goal, by a 14-point margin. Democrats are less inclined to back deficit reduction, with a majority instead choosing to increase taxes on the wealthy.

President Obama, who has received low scores from the public for his handling of the federal budget deficit since last summer, made deficit reduction a priority earlier this year by establishing a bipartisan commission on reducing the deficit and national debt. The commission’s report is due in December, but a draft of the report has already outlined some of the commission’s proposed solutions, including changes to the major entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare that make up a large part of the budget each year. Gallup finds 75% of Americans saying that failing to address the costs of those programs would create major economic problems for the U.S. in the next 25 years. Among this group, more favor tax increases as the better solution than benefit cuts—30% vs. 19%; however, the largest segment, 46%, favors a combination of both.

even members of the president’s deficit commission do not agree on some of its likely proposals, and it is not clear the commission will have the supermajority needed to prompt congressional action on its recommendations. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

November 30, 2010 OBAMA GETS LOWEST MARKS ON DEFICIT, HIGHEST ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS Ratings on Afghanistan up since the summer by Frank Newport Americans continue to give President Obama low approval ratings for his handling of the federal deficit, the economy, and taxes, while giving him comparatively higher ratings for his handling of foreign affairs and the situation in Afghanistan. Implications Americans place a higher priority on deficit reduction than on changes to the tax structure or increasing government spending as a way to deal with the economy. Americans’ concern about the deficit is also apparent in the higher percentage who mention it as the most important problem facing the country today, averaging 8% this year, compared with 5% in 2009 and 2% from 2001-2008. Additionally, Americans were most likely to perceive the deficit as the most important problem the country will face 25 years from now. However, Americans in the past have not embraced some of the tough approaches the deficit commission is calling for, such as cutting Social Security benefits, raising the Social Security retirement age, and eliminating the mortgage interest tax deduction. Indeed,

These results are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Nov. 19-21, prior to the latest WikiLeaks release of classified U.S. government documents. The poll asked Americans to say whether

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they approve or disapprove of the way Obama is dealing with each of five issues. The president’s overall job approval rating in the poll, conducted separately from Gallup Daily tracking, is 42%. His ratings on three of the issues tested—foreign affairs, Afghanistan, and taxes—are within two to four points of that rating. Obama’s ratings on the economy and the federal budget deficit, however, are significantly lower than his overall approval—by 7 and 10 points, respectively. Obama’s approval ratings on four issues—foreign affairs, taxes, the economy, and the deficit—are essentially unchanged from August of this year, although all are down significantly from 2009. The exception to this pattern is Obama’s handling of Afghanistan, which is up by eight points. This change in how the public views Obama’s handling of Afghanistan is not unusual. Gallup has documented several changes of 10 points or more from measurement to measurement since 2009—most likely in response to real-world events relating to U.S. involvement in that war. Americans are also less pessimistic today about the war in Afghanistan than at any point in the last year.

lowest. Thus, the gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ ratings of Obama on Afghanistan is 33 points, substantially smaller than the gaps of at least 60 points between the partisan groups on Obama’s handling of each of the other four issues. Bottom Line Americans give President Obama lower approval ratings on economic issues, and somewhat higher ratings on foreign affairs and his handling of Afghanistan. The president’s low ratings on the economy are neither new nor unexpected. Americans overwhelmingly name economic matters as the nation’s top problem, express ongoing concern about jobs and employment, and continue to have low overall economic confidence ratings. There has been little meaningful change on most of these issue ratings since last summer; the exception is Obama’s handling of Afghanistan. His approval ratings on this issue have proven much more fluid over the past two years than his ratings on other issues— likely in response to developments in the war or in U.S. policy regarding the war. Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan also evokes unusual patterns of differences across party lines. Republicans give Obama a higher rating on handling Afghanistan than on any other issue tested, while Democrats give him their lowest rating. This distinction could reflect the historical fact that a Republican president initiated America’s involvement in Afghanistan, and that Republicans are much less likely to view the war in Afghanistan as a mistake than are Democrats. This survey was conducted prior to the latest, and controversial, WikiLeaks release of classified U.S. documents, whose impact on Obama’s issue approval ratings has yet to be determined. Survey Methods

Across Issues, Republicans Most Approving of Obama on Afghanistan Democrats, as would be expected, are much more likely to approve of the way President Obama is handling each of these five issues than are independents or Republicans. Democrats’ approval ratings across the issues are in the 64% to 79% range; approval among independents ranges between 24% and 42%; and among Republicans, it is between 7% and 31%.

On a relative basis, Republicans are significantly more positive about Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan than they are about his handling of the other four issues. Republicans’ 31% approval of Obama on Afghanistan is their highest for any of the issues tested, while Democrats’ 64% approval on Afghanistan is their

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Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Previous research has shown that religiosity, defined either as church attendance or self-reported importance of religion, is related to age, gender, race and ethnicity, region and state of the country, socioeconomic status, marital status, and child-bearing status. Because wellbeing is also related to these variables, this analysis statistically controls for all of these characteristics. In the first article in this series, Gallup examined the overall positive relationship between religiosity and wellbeing. Daily Negative Emotions Lower for Very Religious

December 01, 2010 VERY RELIGIOUS AMERICANS REPORT LESS DEPRESSION, WORRY Relationship holds when controlling for key demographics

Very religious Americans are also less likely to report experiencing the daily negative emotions of worry, stress, sadness, and anger than are their moderately religious and nonreligious counterparts.

by Frank Newport, Sangeeta Agrawal, and Dan Witters Very religious Americans in the United States are less likely to report having been diagnosed with depression over the course of their lifetime than those who are moderately religious or nonreligious. This relationship between depression and religion, based on an analysis of more than 550,000 Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index interviews, is statistically significant after controlling for major demographic and regional variables. All or Nothing?

Nearly one in six (15.6%) very religious American adults have been diagnosed with depression in their lifetime. This group is about 24% less likely to be diagnosed with depression than those who are moderately religious and 17% less likely to be diagnosed with depression than those who are nonreligious. It is important to note that Gallup asks Americans if they have been diagnosed with depression at any point in their life. These findings thus do not necessarily imply that the act of becoming religious will reduce or eliminate depression for those currently experiencing it. For the purposes of this analysis, an American’s relative degree of religiousness is based on responses to two questions asking about the importance of religion and church attendance, yielding three specific groups: • Very religious—Religion is an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs at least every week or almost every week. This group constitutes 43.7% of the adult population. • Moderately religious—All others who do not fall into the very religious or nonreligious groups but who gave valid responses on both religion questions. This group constitutes 26.6% of the adult population. • Nonreligious—Religion is not an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs seldom or never. This group constitutes 29.7% of the adult population.

The prevalence of depression and negative emotions among those who are not very religious does not follow a straight, linear path. Nonreligious respondents experience lower levels of these negative emotions than moderately religious respondents, suggesting a complex pattern of the interplay of religion and emotional wellbeing among those who are not at the top end of the religious scale. Across all emotional wellbeing dimensions tested, however, those who are very religious score higher than either those who are moderately or nonreligious. Implications While the Gallup analysis documents a significant relationship between high religiosity and lower levels of negative emotional wellbeing, the study cannot determine the precise cause. It is possible that Americans who exhibit lower emotional negativity may be more likely to choose to be religious than those with higher emotional negativity. It is also possible that some third variable could be driving certain segments of the U.S. population to be more religious and to have better emotional wellbeing. The best explanation for the observed relationship between religion and more positive states of emotional health may be the most straightforward—that being religious in fact produces a salutary effect on one’s mental health. There are many possible reasons why this could be the case. This might include the interpersonal and social interaction that accompanies religious service participation, the ability of religion to provide explanations for setbacks and problems, the positive benefits of meditative states, prayer and belief in a higher power, and the focus placed on others and charitable activities by many religions. It is also noteworthy that nonreligious Americans have slightly better emotional health than their moderately religious counterparts,

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revealing a non-linear relationship between religiosity and emotional wellbeing. It is possible that those who are steadfast in their religious beliefs are more psychologically positioned to yield superior emotional wellbeing outcomes than those that pursue religiosity less consistently. The greater religious ambivalence found in this latter group could be a leading and lagging factor in their more negative emotional health, as these Americans may be less prone to commit to one belief system fully because of their higher rates of depression, stress, and worry. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2-July 28, 2010, with a random sample of 554,066 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Of this sample, very religious respondents comprised the plurality (43.7%), with slightly more than one-quarter each for moderately religious and nonreligious respondents.

For results based on the religiosity groups of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.5 percentage point for each group. Generalized linear model analysis was used to estimate marginal scores for all six Indexes after controlling for age (in years), gender, race/ethnicity, marital status, education (number of years), log of income, and region of the country. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 01, 2010 VAST MAJORITY WANTS SOME ASPECT OF BUSH TAX CUTS EXTENDED More Americans would make tax cuts temporary than permanent by Lydia Saad As Congress considers what to do about the Bush tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of this year, Americans are sending a clear signal that they want them extended in some shape or form. Forty percent want Congress to maintain the tax cuts for everyone, while 44% support setting limits on how much of wealthy Americans’ income is eligible for the lower rates.

A follow-up question clarifies where Americans would draw that income line, using some widely discussed income thresholds. Relatively few Americans—5%—would set the cutoff for receiving the Bush tax rates at $1 million, but 12% would set it at $500,000. Combined with the 40% who want no income cutoff, this means a 57% majority of Americans believe the Bush tax cuts should fully apply to household income under $500,000. An additional 26% would set the income threshold at $250,000. Thus, 83% are in favor of retaining the tax cuts on income up to that figure.

Additionally, those who want to extend the Bush tax cuts are divided over whether to make the cuts temporary until the economy improves, or permanent. Among Americans overall, slightly more (45%) think the tax-cut extension should be temporary than say it should be permanent (37%). This is in addition to the 13% who want the tax cuts to expire. Income Differences Are Mild No more than 15% in any income group wants the Bush tax cuts to expire this year, while the rest are about evenly divided between wanting them extended for all versus extended with income limits

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on wealthy Americans. Also, similar percentages at each income level, between 50% and 57%, believe an extension of the Bush tax cuts should be temporary. There are greater differences among political groups. Still, even on this basis, relatively few Democrats, independents, or Republicans are in favor of having the tax cuts expire. The majority of Republicans want the tax cuts extended for everyone, while the majority of Democrats want them extended with income eligibility limits. Independents are evenly divided between the two alternatives.

Additionally, 56% of Republicans think the tax cuts should be permanent while an even larger majority of Democrats, 69%, say they should be temporary. The same USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Nov. 19-21, finds Americans putting relatively high importance on having the lame-duck Congress extend the Bush tax cuts by year’s end. Fifty percent rate this as a “very important” goal and another 31% call it “somewhat important.” The only goal that ranks higher among six pressing issues before Congress that were tested in the survey is passing legislation to keep the estate tax from rising. Of those who say extending the Bush tax cuts is very important to them, 55% are in favor of maintaining the tax cuts for all Americans. Additionally, 57% of this group wants the tax cuts extended permanently.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 02, 2010 GALLUP FINDS UNEMPLOYMENT DOWN TO 8.8% IN NOVEMBER Underemployment falls to a new 2010 low of 17.2% by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.8% at the end of November—down from 9.2% in midNovember and 9.4% at the end of October, and a new low for the year. While the government’s unemployment report on Friday will include seasonal adjustments and is less timely than Gallup’s Daily monitoring, Gallup modeling suggests that it will also show a decline.

Bottom Line With most Americans in favor of maintaining the Bush tax cuts at least for the middle class, the outgoing Congress has an uncommonly clear mandate in its final days. The challenge is in finding common ground on the details. Forty percent of Americans fundamentally agree with Republican congressional leaders who are striving to maintain the tax cuts for all income groups. Slightly more, 44%, are aligned with President Obama, who has said he is committed to setting limits on how much of wealthy Americans’ income is eligible for the reduced tax rates. As the two sides continue to work toward a compromise, they should bear in mind that the least popular outcome would be doing nothing, thus letting the tax breaks expire altogether. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work declined slightly to 8.4% of the workforce in November—also a new 2010 low. The smaller decline for this measure compared with the unemployment measure suggests that the jobs situation is improving primarily among the unemployed right now. Underemployment at Lowest Level of 2010 The decline in the unemployment rate and the slight decline in the percentage of part-time workers wanting full-time work combine to bring underemployment down to 17.2%. This is a third consecutive new 2010 low, down from 17.7% in mid-November and 18% at the end of October.

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Unemployment Situation Improving Gallup’s unemployment measure reflects what is actually taking place in the U.S. job market as more people are getting hired and fewer are being let go. However, it is not adjusted for seasonal trends, and companies hire more employees during the holiday season. For example, the new pop-up store phenomenon creates added employment for holidays like Halloween and Christmas. As a result, the decline in Gallup’s estimate of the unemployment rate is likely more pronounced than what the government will report on Friday. Further, Gallup’s Daily tracking is more up-to-date than the government’s measure, which is based on mid-month job market conditions. As a result, and as noted previously, Gallup estimates that the government’s unemployment rate for November is likely to show a decline, into the 9.3% to 9.5% range. This is below the 9.6% current government unemployment rate as well as the consensus forecast of 9.7% for November. On the other hand, it appears to be consistent with Wednesday’s ADP report showing increased private-sector job growth in November. If the decline in Gallup’s U.S. unemployment measure persists, it suggests that the government’s unemployment rate for December could show a further decline when reported in early January. In turn, prospects for an improving jobs situation suggest good things for the nation’s retailers—particularly late in the holiday sales season—and for the U.S. economy overall going forward.

tend to be a precursor of government reports by approximately two weeks. Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Oct. 31-Nov. 29, 2010, with a random sample of 18,272 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 02, 2010 MOST AMERICANS TAKE DOCTOR’S ADVICE WITHOUT SECOND OPINION Americans slightly more confident now than in 2002 by Frank Newport Despite the advent of health websites and other widely available sources providing medical research and information, 70% of Americans feel confident in the accuracy of their doctor’s advice, and don’t feel the need to check for a second opinion or do additional research. Americans’ confidence in their doctor is up slightly from eight years ago.

Survey Methods Gallup classifies American workers as underemployed if they are either unemployed or working part time but wanting full-time work. The findings reflect more than 18,000 phone interviews with U.S. adults aged 18 and older in the workforce, collected over a 30-day period. Gallup’s results are not seasonally adjusted and

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The latest results are from Gallup’s annual Health and Healthcare Survey, conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010. Older Americans are the most likely to be confident in their doctor’s advice, with 85% of those 65 and older expressing confidence.

This compares with 67% among those 50 to 64 and 65% among those under 50. While one might expect that interest in a second opinion and doing additional research would be higher among Americans with college degrees or postgraduate education, that is not the case. There is little difference in confidence in one’s doctor across the educational spectrum.

Implications The advent of health websites and other sources of health information have made it easier than in the past to seek additional medical information about a diagnosis or medical recommendation. Some insurance plans encourage or require second opinions before authorizing procedures. News media, magazines, and television programs increasingly focus on, and in many instances question, medical and health conditions and their remedies. The efficacy of common medical procedures such as mammograms, PSA tests, Vitamin D, and back surgery have been questioned in recent years. One might have expected all of these circumstances to increase the interest of average Americans in validating their doctor’s advice. But that has not occurred. This may in part reflect Americans’ continuing high level of confidence in the honesty and ethics of doctors, which has not changed significantly over the past eight years. In Gallup’s annual survey of the perceived honesty and ethics of professions, Americans’ confidence in doctors remains at roughly the same level now as it was in 2002—near, but not at the top of the list of professions tested. (Gallup released the complete results of this year’s honesty and ethics ratings of professions on Friday, Dec. 3.) All in all, these data suggest that doctors generally are in at least as good a position in their patients’ minds as they were eight years ago. This is despite anecdotal reports of doctors’ complaints about patients’ second-guessing their diagnoses and medical advice, and spending hours on the Internet researching what they have been told. The substantial majority of Americans seem content to generally accept their doctor’s advice without need for further research or a second opinion.

phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 03, 2010 NURSES TOP HONESTY AND ETHICS LIST FOR 11TH YEAR Lobbyists, car salespeople, members of Congress get the lowest ratings by Jeffrey M. Jones Nurses continue to outrank other professions in Gallup’s annual Honesty and Ethics survey. Eighty-one percent of Americans say nurses have “very high” or “high” honesty and ethical standards, a significantly greater percentage than for the next-highest-rated professions, military officers and pharmacists. Americans rate car salespeople, lobbyists, and members of Congress as having the lowest honesty and ethics, with the last two getting a majority of “low” or “very low” ratings.

Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 511 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular

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Gallup has asked Americans to rate the honesty and ethical standards of professions since 1976, and annually since 1991. Gallup first asked Americans to rate nurses in 1999, and that profession has topped the list since then in all but one year, 2001. Firefighters were added on a one-time basis in 2001 to test their image following reports of their heroism after the 9/11 terror attacks; they finished first, at 90%. Nurses still managed a strong 84% honesty and ethics rating that year, tying for their highest ever. Prior to 1999, clergy or pharmacists were usually the highest-rated professions. There has been little meaningful change in the ratings of professions that are measured annually, compared with last year. To the extent there was change—as in the case of pharmacists (+5), police officers (-6), bankers (+4), and lawyers (+4)—the ratings have generally returned to the levels of two years ago.

Implications Stability is generally the norm in Americans’ ratings of the honesty and ethics of professions, but Americans’ opinions do shift in response to real-world events, mostly scandals, that reflect poorly on a profession. For example, bankers’ ratings remain well below where they were before the financial crisis began (dropping from 35% in 2007 to 23% in 2008). Members of Congress’ ratings have never been high, but their recent ratings rank among the worst in the more than 30-year history of Gallup’s honesty and ethics question. Honesty and ethical ratings of the clergy remain depressed, compared with what they were prior to the Catholic priest sex-abuse revelations in the early 2000s. The consistently most positively rated professions, including nurses and pharmacists, have generally been able to avoid widespread scandals and, as such, Americans continue to hold them in the highest regard. Survey Methods

The remaining professions tested this year (aside from lobbyists) were last measured in 2007. Americans rate two of these, military officers and nursing home operators, significantly more positively than in 2007, but not necessarily higher than in 2004. Honesty and ethics ratings of grade-school teachers are down significantly (from 74% in 2007 to 67% today); Gallup’s only other measurement on that profession, from 2004 (73%), was also more positive than the current rating.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 06, 2010 KENNEDY STILL HIGHEST-RATED MODERN PRESIDENT, NIXON LOWEST Jimmy Carter’s retrospective approval rating and rank drop from 2006 by Lydia Saad State officeholders’ current 12% honesty and ethics rating is just one percentage point higher than its all-time low of 11% in 1977 and 1988, and remains down from its high of 24% in 2004.

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Of the nine U.S. presidents who have served in the past 50 years, John F. Kennedy continues to earn the highest retrospective job approval rating from Americans, now 85%. Ronald Reagan ranks second, with 74%. While these presidents’ ratings are largely

unchanged from 2006, Bill Clinton’s rating has improved, putting him in third place, while Jimmy Carter, at 52%, has dropped from third to sixth. Richard Nixon remains the lowest rated.

1999, followed by a slide during his son’s presidency. However, with George W. Bush now out of office, approval of the elder Bush has rebounded somewhat.

The Nov. 19-21 Gallup poll asked Americans to say, based on what they know or remember about the nine most recent former presidents, whether they approve or disapprove of how each handled his job in office. Kennedy has consistently ranked No. 1 in this Gallup measure initiated in 1990. Nixon has almost always come in last, although Lyndon Johnson had the lowest retrospective approval in 1993 and tied with Nixon in 1992. However, given that many Americans have no opinion of Johnson, his disapproval runs much lower than Nixon’s. The most notable changes in this year’s update are a ninepoint drop in Carter’s approval rating and eight-point increases in those for Clinton, George H.W. Bush, and Johnson. This is Gallup’s first retrospective approval measure of George W. Bush since he left office in 2009. His 47% approval and 51% disapproval rating puts him in Nixon’s company as the only two presidents whose retrospective disapproval exceeds their approval, although the balance is much more negative for Nixon: 29% approve and 65% disapprove. For Bush—whose job approval ratings as president descended into the 20s in his final year—a 47% retrospective approval is actually relatively positive, as his approval rating as president last reached that level in 2005.

Retrospective Approval vs. Approval While in Office Public attitudes about former presidents apparently tend to soften with time, but this is by no means assured. Six of the nine presidents are now more highly regarded than they were at the end of their presidencies. These include Kennedy, Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Carter, and George W. Bush. On the other hand, Clinton, Johnson, and Nixon are each currently rated on par with their final job approval rating before leaving office. An alternate way to evaluate how presidents have fared since they left office is to compare their retrospective approval ratings to their average job approval rating during their presidencies. Kennedy, Reagan, Ford, Carter, and Clinton all have a higher retrospective approval rating today than their average presidential approval ratings. The retrospective ratings for the two Bushes are about the same as their average presidential approval ratings, while those of Johnson and Nixon are lower.

Jimmy Carter Loses More Ground Carter’s retrospective approval rating peaked at 69% in 1999, dropped to 61% in 2006, and is now 52%. While he has maintained fairly high approval from Democrats (80% in 2006 vs. 77% today), he has lost support among Republicans (from 42% to 34%) and independents (from 57% to 47%). These changes may reflect Carter’s outspoken criticism of then-President George W. Bush over the Iraq war, at one time calling Bush’s presidency “the worst in history” on international matters. Whatever the reason for the decline, Carter remains better regarded today, overall, than he was in the early ‘90s. Perceptions of Clinton and George H.W. Bush Advance Former president Clinton’s retrospective job approval rating has steadily increased in the decade since he left office, from 51% in 2002 to 69% today. By contrast, the man he beat for the job, George H.W. Bush, enjoyed a surge of approval between 1993 and

Bottom Line Nearly 50 years after Kennedy’s assassination, the vast majority of Americans see his presidency in a positive light, much improved

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from how he was viewed in his final days. The 27-point difference between his final job approval rating and his latest retrospective approval rating far exceeds that of any subsequent president. However, Reagan, Ford, Carter, and George H.W. Bush have enjoyed substantial increases in public approval since leaving office, particularly when they have stayed out of partisan politics. George W. Bush also seems to be benefiting from this tendency in his initial retrospective approval reading, which is up 13 points from his last reading in office. By contrast, Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton are rated similarly to how they were viewed at the end of their terms. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 19-21, 2010, with a random sample of 1,037 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 07, 2010 MIDWEST LEADS WAY TO MOST U.S. JOB CREATION SINCE SEPT. ‘08 Job market conditions are best in the Midwest, at +15; worst in the West, at +5

firms were hiring and 24% were firing. Current job market conditions nationwide are also better than the +2 of November 2009 and the +6 of November 2008. However, they remain far worse than the +26 of January 2008—the point at which the recession was just getting underway.

Midwest Is Best and Improving Hiring in the Midwest increased to 32% in November and firing fell to 17%, improving the region’s Job Creation Index to +15 from +11 in October. This reflects both the largest increase and the best job-creation conditions of any region. Continued improvements in the manufacturing sector as well as for farm and other commodities have produced a sharp rise in job market conditions in this region from the +1 hiring-firing gap of November 2009 and the +2 of November 2008.

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Gallup’s Job Creation Index hit +11 in November—its best reading since September 2008—with job creation highest in the Midwest, at +15, and lowest in the West, at +5. The results, from Gallup Daily tracking, are based on 15,163 U.S. employees’ self-reports of hiring and firing activity at their workplaces. Hiring and Letting Go Have Each Improved Nationwide The 30% of workers nationwide who report their employer is hiring and the 19% who say their employer is letting people go represent an improvement from job market conditions in January, when 23% of

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South Job Market Nearly as Good Job conditions in the South are nearly as good as those in the Midwest, with hiring at 31% and firing declining to 18%. The region’s

Job Creation Index is +13, matching its best of the year and otherwise its highest reading since October 2008. The recent improvement of job conditions in the South may reflect some recovery from the effects of the BP oil spill and the continuing growth of U.S. exports.

East Is Stable at Best Level Since September 2008 In the East, 31% of employers have been hiring and 20% letting employees go for the past three months, for an index that matches the current national average of +11. Although stable, job market conditions here remain at their best since September 2008 and appear to reflect a return to stability on Wall Street as well as in the U.S. financial sector.

Commentary Employees nationwide report hiring and firing activity at their places of work that is the best it has been since September 2008. This stands in sharp contrast to the impression the government’s unemployment report gave on Friday—but is consistent with Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures. While much of today’s job creation may be seasonal, involving the holidays, and therefore may not be reflected in the government’s unemployment report, any improvement in job market conditions benefits those needing work and today’s fledgling economic recovery. Still, the U.S. job situation remains far worse than it was in January 2008, as the recession was getting underway. It appears as though the Congress will act to extend the Bush tax cuts and continue the extended unemployment benefits, and this could help improve things further. While jobs need to remain the primary policy focus during the months ahead, Gallup’s unemployment and job creation data suggest new jobs are being created at the best rate in more than two years— an encouraging finding for everyone looking for a job in today’s tough job market.

December 08, 2010 AMERICANS SUPPORT TWO MAJOR ELEMENTS OF TAX COMPROMISE Liberal vs. conservative/moderate Democrats disagree on extending tax cuts for all by Lydia Saad Two major elements included in the tax agreement reached Monday between President Barack Obama and Republican leaders in Congress meet with broad public support. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) favor extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for all Americans for two years, and an identical number support extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed.

West Shows Stability but Trails Other Regions Hiring and firing activity in the West continues to trail that of other regions, with 27% of companies hiring and 22% letting employees go, for an index of +5. The job market in the West has not improved since summer and may reflect some of the worst housing and real estate market conditions in the U.S.

According to Gallup polling conducted Dec. 3-6, the slight majority of Democrats, as well as most independents and Republicans, would vote for a two-year extension of the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003. This differs slightly from a November Gallup poll giving Americans three options for extending the Bush tax cuts. That poll found 40% in favor of extending the tax cuts for all Americans, 44% in

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favor of extending them with limits on tax breaks for the wealthy, and 13% in favor of letting the tax breaks expire altogether. Nevertheless, the results of the new question suggest that, while the compromise position on taxes may not be their ideal, most Americans would support congressional passage of it. In terms of extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, more rank-and-file Republicans say they would vote against this than for it; however, the vast majority of independents and Democrats are in favor. Opposition Limited to the Extremes Looking more specifically at the different ideological wings of each party, only liberal Democrats oppose extending the tax breaks for everyone: 39% are in favor, while 55% are opposed. Among the other groups, support ranges from 64% of conservative/moderate Democrats to 87% of conservative Republicans. Similarly, conservative Republicans are the only political/ideological group opposing the extension of unemployment benefits. The majority of moderate/liberal Republicans are in favor, as are most Democrats, regardless of ideology.

While Republicans generally don’t agree with extending unemployment benefits, they broadly support extending the tax cuts, and at least a slim majority of Democrats support both measures. In fact, the only groups not supporting both proposals are liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. The more moderate members of both parties join independents in generally supporting the proposals. Thus, if Congress ultimately passes the elements announced Monday, the compromise would likely satisfy more Americans than it dissatisfies. Survey Methods

Maintaining the income tax cuts for two more years and extending unemployment benefits are two of eight items included in a Gallup referendum-style question giving Americans the opportunity to say how they would vote on various proposals under review by the lame-duck Congress. Gallup has used this “for” or “against” format periodically since the early 1970s to measure public opinion on the issues of the day. Both issues are among the most popular measures tested in the new poll, tied with allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the U.S. military. The only item garnering more support is strengthening food safety regulations. Gallup will explore public views on these and the other referenda items in greater depth in future articles. Implications The White House reportedly agreed to extend the Bush tax cuts for all Americans partly to help lure independents back to the Democrats’ fold by 2012. That reasoning seems sound. By yielding on the tax cuts, Obama extracted Republican leaders’ support for extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed—and large majorities of independents support both measures. Additionally, according to a post-election Gallup poll, by 49% to 24%, independents are more inclined to favor partisan compromise over principled standoffs in Congress. Thus, rather than get mired in a partisan squabble that could result in higher taxes for the middle class come January, Obama can present himself as the architect of a new era of compromise.

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Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 3-6, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 08, 2010 IN U.S., WORKING CAREGIVERS FACE WELLBEING CHALLENGES Negative effects of caregiving greatest for those aged 18 to 29

substantially lower wellbeing than their counterparts who are noncaregivers reveals a risk group perhaps in the greatest need of support and resources to maintain their wellbeing. Survey Methods

by Dan Witters Americans who work a full-time job and say they care for an elderly or disabled family member, relative, or friend—16% of the full-time workforce—suffer from lower wellbeing than those who work a fulltime job but do not have additional caregiving responsibilities. Caregivers’ 66.4 overall wellbeing score is significantly lower than the 70.2 among non-caregivers.

These findings are based on 140,853 interviews with American adults employed full time conducted Jan. 2-Nov. 24, 2010 as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. Of these respondents, 23,520 self-identified as caregivers based on their response to the question “Do you currently help care for an elderly or disabled family member, relative, or friend, or not?” The Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index score comprises six sub-indexes, which measure how Americans rate their lives, emotional health, work environment, physical health, healthy behaviors, and access to basic necessities. Implications The one in six American adults who are employed full time and identify themselves as caregivers have significantly lower wellbeing compared with those who work full time but don’t carry the additional caregiving responsibility. The deleterious effects of caregiving on a person’s emotional and physical health may be because of the added responsibilities, physical demands, and emotional burdens associated with such a role. Furthermore, these effects likely vary based on the intensity of the need of the person requiring care and the nature of the condition, from Alzheimer’s and dementia to physical disability. A recent study of Well-Being Index data by Joseph Coughlin, Ph.D., the founder and director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology AgeLab, found that caregivers experience more daily stress and worry and less happiness and enjoyment than non-caregivers, and they are more likely to report having been diagnosed with depression. Coughlin also found that these conditions worsened substantially among the unemployed for both groups. At the same time, it is possible that caregivers are somewhat predisposed to lower wellbeing than non-caregivers, as they are slightly less educated and have somewhat lower income. These realities may reduce options regarding outsourcing caregiving and could increase the likelihood that people with lower wellbeing to begin with could ultimately end up serving in a caregiving role. Interestingly, Well-Being Index data suggest that the potentially negative impact of caregiving on wellbeing decreases with age, even as the demands of career, family, saving for retirement and college tuition, and declining physical health typically become more profound. That young people, particularly those younger than 30, have

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2-Nov. 24, 2010, with a random sample of 140,853 adults employed full time, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Of this sample of respondents, one-sixth self-identified as caregivers. Nearly two-thirds of all caregivers are between the ages of 45 and 64. For results based on the total sample of caregivers, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. For smaller groups, such as caregivers aged 18 to 29 and 65 years old and older, the maximum error range is about ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 09, 2010 IN U.S., 67% SUPPORT REPEALING “DON’T ASK, DON’T TELL” The most opposition comes from conservative Republicans by Lymari Morales Lawmakers seeking to repeal the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy have a large majority of Americans behind them. If they had an opportunity to vote on it, 67% of Americans say they would vote for a law that would allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in the U.S. military. The finding, from a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 3-6, 2010, is consistent with previous Gallup surveys on the issue. More than 60% of Americans since 2005 have said they favor allowing openly gay men and lesbian women to serve in the U.S. military, including majorities of the most conservative segments of the population. The current findings are based on a question in which Americans are asked whether they would vote for or against several proposals

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lawmakers are currently considering. It was asked after the release of a major Pentagon study on troops’ views about the current ban on openly gay service members and as the lame-duck Congress moved toward legislative action. Defense Secretary Robert Gates testified to Congress on Dec. 2, saying that troops’ concerns “do not present an insurmountable barrier” to ending the policy. The U.S. Senate Thursday, by a 57-40 vote, failed to advance a defense authorization bill considered the best chance for repeal. Still according to The Washington Post, senators who support repeal say they may introduce a separate bill on the matter, while gay-rights activists plan to ask President Obama to use his executive powers to keep U.S. courts and military officials from enforcing the current policy. Rank-and-file Republicans currently are evenly divided on the issue, with the most opposition coming from conservative Republicans. Large majorities of Democrats, independents, and moderate and liberal Republicans are in favor.

surveys and in a new question gauging support for a number of legislative proposals currently under consideration. With Defense Secretary Gates and a Pentagon report on the issue both supportive of repeal, arguments for maintaining the policy seem to be increasingly sparse. Still, despite their support, repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” ranks low on Americans’ priority list for the lame-duck Congress, suggesting there will likely be little consequence politically for not acting now. Survey Methods

Republicans—and conservative Republicans—are the only key demographic groups that do not express majority support for legislation allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly. Support for DADT Repeal on Par With That for Tax Cuts, Unemployment Benefits Americans express almost exactly the same level of support for allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the U.S. military as they do for extending the Bush tax cuts for all Americans for two years and extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed. It would also appear to be an easier sell to the American people than passing the DREAM Act, ratifying the START treaty, postponing Medicare cuts, or banning earmarks. Implications Americans demonstrate steady and widespread support for allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military—in previous Gallup

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Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 3-6, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 09, 2010 AMERICANS’ WELLBEING REMAINS AT 2010 LOW Drop in healthy behaviors are principal source of decline since May

or more days per week in November (50.5%) than did in May (53.6%). Americans have also been less likely to eat healthy foods and more likely to smoke.

by Dan Witters Americans’ Well-Being Index score of 66.5 in November is identical to October—essentially matching the 2010 low recorded in September—and still down from the three-year high of 67.4 in May. The nation’s wellbeing, however, continues to remain well above the levels measured from late 2008 to early 2009, during the worst of the economic crisis, and is similar to what Gallup measured for the latter part of 2009. Bottom Line

These findings are based on approximately 30,000 interviews conducted each month with Americans, aged 18 years and older, as a part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The index is composed of six sub-indexes that include 55 individual items that collectively measure Americans’ physical, emotional, and fiscal wellbeing. Healthy Behaviors Main Source of Wellbeing Decline Since May Peak Fewer Americans have been exercising and eating healthily since May of this year. This is a typical seasonal pattern the Healthy Behavior Index measures and is the primary reason for the decline in the nation’s overall Well-Being Index score in November. Americans have also been evaluating their lives less positively since May—a trend unrelated to seasonality—causing the Life Evaluation Index to drop slightly to 49.7 in November from 50.7 in May.

Americans Practicing Poorer Health Habits Across All Metrics The Healthy Behavior Index tracks four specific health habits, each of which has worsened since May, most notably weekly exercise. Significantly fewer Americans exercised for at least 30 minutes three

Although some of the decline in Americans’ healthy behaviors as winter approaches is likely because of seasonal effects, past data from the same two time periods reveal that the cold weather may not be the sole cause. In 2009, for example, there was virtually no decline in the Healthy Behavior Index between May (63.1) and November (63.0). A comparison of the same two months in 2008, however, finds a larger 3.6-percentage-point decline in healthy behaviors, but that came at the same time as the global economic crisis, which had a notable impact on wellbeing generally. Seasonal or not, the drop in healthy behaviors from May to November of this year, while not ideal, is not so great as to affect overall wellbeing relative to previous years, as the composite score continues to track similarly to what Gallup and Healthways found in 2009. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2-Nov. 30, 2010, with a random sample of more than 1 million adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. The total sample for the month of November 2010 was 27,218. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.6 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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December 10, 2010 SLIM MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WOULD VOTE FOR DREAM ACT LAW Fifty-four percent favor granting legal status to illegal immigrants brought to U.S. as children

Support varies by education and age, with younger and more educated Americans the most likely to say they would vote for such legislation, and older and less educated Americans least likely to do so.

by Jeffrey M. Jones

Americans are more inclined to support than oppose legislation similar to the DREAM Act now under consideration in the Senate. That legislation would begin to address the status of some illegal immigrants already in the country. The decision to postpone action on the bill could seal its fate. With the American public placing a lower priority on legislation like the DREAM Act, there may not be much external pressure for Congress to act on it before its session ends.

Americans are more likely to say they would vote for than against a law that would grant legal status to illegal immigrants brought to the United States as children if they join the military or attend college. This is the major thrust of the DREAM Act legislation Congress is now considering to provide a path to citizenship for thousands of young adults living in the United States illegally.

Implications

Survey Methods

The DREAM Act, whose formal name is the Development, Relief, and Education for Alien Minors Act, narrowly passed in the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday. The U.S. Senate delayed a scheduled vote Thursday on the bill because Senate leaders did not have the votes necessary to pass it. Its fate is now uncertain as the end of the lame-duck session nears. Congressional supporters, including most Democrats, see the bill as an opportunity for young adults who have proven to be productive members of society to gain legal status. Opponents, including most Republicans, are concerned that the legislation would grant amnesty to those here illegally and may encourage more illegal immigration in the future. It is not clear to what extent Americans are familiar with the particulars of the DREAM Act, because the legislation has not received as much attention as other issues Congress is dealing with, such as the extension of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. But the poll indicates Americans’ top-of-mind responses to a proposal similar to the DREAM Act are more positive than negative. Reflecting the political divides in Congress on the issue, most Americans who identify as Democrats say they would vote for such legislation if they could do so, while most Republicans would vote against it. Independents’ views are more similar to Democrats’ than to Republicans’ views.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 3-6, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 10, 2010 IN U.S., MAJORITY SUPPORTS RATIFICATION OF START TREATY Fifty-one percent would vote for and 30% against, 19% unsure by Frank Newport

Non-Hispanic whites are divided as to whether they would vote for legislation similar to the DREAM Act, while nonwhites favor it by a better-than 2-to-1 margin. The poll did not include a large enough sample of Hispanics to provide reliable estimates of that group’s support, though the data suggest they largely favor it.

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If given the opportunity to vote on the matter, 51% of Americans would ratify the START nuclear arms agreement with Russia and 30% would vote against it, while 19% are undecided. Maine’s two moderate Republican senators publicly announced their support for ratification on Friday morning, although it is still uncertain whether the Senate will vote on the treaty before the end of the year—as President Obama has urged. The START treaty is one of the potential issues on the lameduck Congress’ agenda, but has to a degree been overshadowed by

the focus on tax cuts and the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell“ legislation. Gallup’s question about the treaty was included in a series of referendum questions in Dec. 3-6, 2010, Gallup Daily tracking. The question did not measure the degree to which Americans are familiar with the particulars of the treaty, but nevertheless provides a measure of their top-of-mind reactions to the issue of its ratification when described as a “nuclear arms agreement with Russia.” Some Senate Republicans have expressed concerns about the treaty, although former Republican President George H.W. Bush and former Secretary of State Colin Powell have in recent weeks publicly endorsed it. While there are not major partisan differences in support among Americans by party, Democrats are slightly more in favor than Republicans.

Previous Gallup polling shows that Americans give the START treaty mid-range priority among a list of six issues that the lame-duck Congress could focus on. Forty percent say it is very important that Congress complete action on the START treaty before the end of the year. This places it well below the importance given to action on the estate tax, the Bush tax cuts, and extending unemployment benefits, but above the priority given to “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” and the DREAM Act. Implications In addition to the new Gallup referendum question, a number of questions asked by other polling organizations find majority support for the idea of ratifying the START treaty. As an example, a Nov. 29-Dec. 2 CBS News poll asked about the general concept of the U.S. and Russia “coming to an agreement to limit nuclear weapons,” and found 82% support. A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted in mid-November explicitly reminded respondents that “President Obama and the president of Russia recently signed a treaty to reduce the number of nuclear weapons of each country,” and found 73% support for Senate ratification. Americans attach mid-level importance to ratifying the treaty before the end of the year, suggesting that failure to do so would be less consequential than failure to act on legislation relating to taxes and unemployment. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 3-6, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,003 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50

U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 13, 2010 IN U.S., 11% OF HOUSEHOLDS REPORT COMPUTER CRIMES, A NEW HIGH Self-reports of other types of crime largely unchanged by Lydia Saad With the WikiLeaks affair and broader hacking incidents related to it highlighting the potential for disruption of the Internet, Gallup’s 2010 crime survey finds that computer-related crime is a growing problem for average Americans. Eleven percent of U.S. adults report that they or a household member was the victim of a computer or Internet crime on their home computer in the past year, up from the 6% to 8% levels found in the previous seven years.

Of the nine types of crime Gallup asked Americans about in the Oct. 7-10 survey, having money or property stolen received the highest mentions, at 16%, followed by having a home, car, or other property vandalized, at 14%. The trend for these has been fairly stable in recent years. Computer/Internet crime is the only other type of crime that registers in the double digits this year. However, the next-most common— identity theft, at 8%—is closely related by virtue of much of it

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occurring through hacking and fraudulent Internet transactions. This is down slightly from the 10% who reported identity theft in 2009, the first year Gallup asked about this type of crime. Fewer than 5% of Americans say that, over the past year, they or a household member was a victim in a home break-in, a car theft, a mugging or physical assault, a money or property theft by force, or a sexual assault.

Whether the increase in computer-/Internet-based crime can be curbed by new methods to thwart it, or only expands along with Americans’ use of the Internet, could have important implications for how positive the online experience is in the coming years, and how trusted it is by consumers. One-Third of Households Are Victims

Survey Methods

In the past year, a third of all U.S. households experienced at least one of the nine crimes Gallup measured, up slightly from previous years. When computer- or Internet-based crimes (including identity theft) are excluded, the figure is similar to prior levels, at 26%. Overall, 4% of Americans say they or a family member experienced some sort of violent crime, including a physical assault, mugging, or sexual assault.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 7-10, 2010, with a random sample of 1,025 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

The increase since 2009 in American households reporting computer- or Internet-based crimes comes mainly from Americans under age 55. Eighteen- to 34-year-olds are almost twice as likely to report these crimes as they were a year ago, and 35- to 54-year-olds are also significantly more likely to do so. In contrast, the rate is virtually unchanged among those 55 and older. Bottom Line At 11%, computer-/Internet-based crime is edging closer in reported frequency to the most common traditional forms of crime involving nonviolent theft of personal property and vandalism. Further, the increase is an exception in the overall crime picture, in that Americans’ victimization reports have been fairly steady over the past several years. Not only has the overall percentage of Americans experiencing any type of crime been fairly flat, but Americans’ reports of specific crimes have been flat as well.

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December 13, 2010 IN U.S., MORE THAN 8 IN 10 RATE NURSES, DOCTORS HIGHLY Health insurance companies receive highest poor rating by Elizabeth Mendes Americans rate nurses and doctors the best of eight different healthcare providers in the U.S., with more than 8 in 10 saying the medical care they provide is excellent or good. The other six entities

measured are institutions. Of these, nursing homes get the lowest positive rating (33%), partly because one in six Americans don’t have an opinion of them, while health insurance companies get the highest percentage of “poor” ratings.

Other than nurses and doctors, Americans are the most positive about hospitals, followed by hospital emergency rooms, pharmaceutical companies, and walk-in clinics. Even though health insurance companies have the highest percentage of “poor” ratings, 42% of Americans rate the medical services they provide as excellent or good. This may be higher than one would expect, given the negative press surrounding health insurance companies during much of 2009 and 2010, as the new healthcare law moved through the legislative process. These results are from Gallup’s annual Health and Healthcare Survey, conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010. Gallup asked this question once before, in November 2003, but the ratings of each of the eight aspects have not changed dramatically from that time. Americans in 2010 also rated nurses the most honest and ethical of several professions for the 11th year. Republicans, Seniors Give Health Insurance Companies Higher Ratings While Americans, regardless of political party, rate nurses and doctors the best on the list, Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to rate the medical services health insurance companies provide as excellent or good—63% vs. 28%. Independents, at 39%, are significantly less likely than Republicans to give health insurance companies positive reviews. Republicans also rate pharmaceutical companies more positively than do Democrats.

The partisan differences may in part reflect ideological differences between Republicans and Democrats regarding the role of health insurance companies in the United States.

There is also a significant difference in ratings of health insurance companies by age. Americans aged 18 to 44 are the least likely to rate health insurance companies as excellent or good, with 34% doing so. Seniors, at 66%, are significantly more likely than any other age group to rate health insurance companies this highly. Seniors in general rate most of the eight aspects more highly than do Americans in other age groups. The only provider that less than 50% of seniors rate as excellent or good is nursing homes.

Seniors are also more likely to be insured and to get their health insurance through Medicare, the U.S. government’s health insurance program for Americans aged 65 and older. Americans who have health insurance through Medicare or Medicaid are slightly more likely to give positive ratings to health insurance companies than are those who have private health insurance.

Bottom Line Over the next few years, the new healthcare law—if it remains in its current form—will require numerous changes to the health insurance system, and millions more Americans will gain access to care. Whether perceptions toward health providers improve in the coming years will be a big test for the law, which seeks to “end some of the worst abuses of the insurance industry.” Gallup’s current ratings of healthcare providers give a solid baseline from which to detect changes in Americans’ views on specific aspects of the U.S. healthcare system, even as the Affordable Care Act is fully implemented in the coming years. There has been little change in these ratings over the past seven years. It is clear, however, that Americans are currently and have in the past been highly satisfied with the care that nurses and doctors provide, and are largely satisfied with hospital care. The divergence between Americans’ more positive ratings of actual healthcare providers—doctors, nurses, and hospitals—and lower ratings of health insurance companies suggests that the latter could face the most significant public opinion challenges in the changing healthcare environment. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 510 adults, aged 18

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and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on this total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 14, 2010 AMERICANS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF PROPOSED TAX COMPROMISE Support is high among those paying close attention by Frank Newport Americans, and particularly those who are following the tax issue closely, are substantially more likely to believe Congress should pass the new tax agreement reached by President Obama and Republican congressional leaders than to think Congress should not do so. Among all Americans, 49% support passage, while 32% do not, and support rises to 60% among Americans following the news about the agreement very or somewhat closely.

These results are from a Dec. 10-12 USA Today/Gallup poll. The question asked Americans about “the agreement on taxes reached by President Obama and Republican leaders in Congress last Monday,” and did not specify or list the details of what is in the agreement. Two-thirds (66%) of Americans are following news of the agreement very or somewhat closely. This is modestly above the average 60% of Americans attentive to all news stories in Gallup’s database

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of national news stories measured this way over the past two decades. Republicans, independents, and Democrats are paying essentially the same level of attention. The new findings in favor of the tax legislation currently under consideration follow a previous Gallup measure of public support for two elements included in the agreement—extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for all Americans for two years and extending unemployment benefits for the long-term uninsured. Sixty-six percent of Americans favored each. Some lawmakers, who oppose the agreement reached by President Obama and Republican leaders, object specifically to the extension of the tax cuts to include the wealthy. The new poll confirms previous Gallup research, suggesting that Americans tilt toward agreement with this argument. When asked “if it were up to you,” 47% of Americans would favor extending the tax cuts but setting limits for the wealthy, while 41% would retain the tax cuts for everyone. Few would want them to expire for everyone.

The American public thus appears to be subject to some of the same cross-pressures on this issue that have been evident in the comments of President Obama and other Democratic leaders. The public tilts toward the Obama position that the wealthy should be excluded from the tax-cut extension. But given the choice between extending the tax cuts for all versus letting them expire for all—which may be the only practical choice if Republican leaders maintain their pledge to hold firm on the issue—Americans opt for the full extension. The majority of those who believe the tax cuts should be extended for all support the agreement between Obama and the Republican leaders—as would be expected. But those who say they would not extend the tax cuts for the wealthy also favor rather than oppose the proposed agreement—by a 13-percentage-point margin, 49% to 36%.

Implications Taken as a whole, the new Gallup data confirm previous findings that overall, the American people support the tax agreement proposed by

President Obama and Republican leaders. This is particularly the case among those who are paying attention to the debate. While the question wording used in this USA Today/Gallup poll did not specify what was in the proposed Obama-Republican tax deal, those following it closely are strongly in favor, by a 25-point margin. Among the roughly one in three Americans who say they are not following news about the agreement closely, about half venture an opinion, breaking roughly even on whether Congress should or should not pass the agreement. The Gallup findings also confirm that Americans tend to mirror the position on the agreement taken by President Obama and other Democrats who support it—that it is not optimal, but acceptable if the choice is the agreement or nothing. Even those who say tax cuts should be limited for the wealthy tilt toward support of the ObamaRepublican agreement. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 15, 2010 CONGRESS’ JOB APPROVAL RATING WORST IN GALLUP HISTORY Thirteen percent approve of the way Congress is handling its job by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans’ assessment of Congress has hit a new low, with 13% saying they approve of the way Congress is handling its job. The 83% disapproval rating is also the worst Gallup has measured in more than 30 years of tracking congressional job performance. The prior low approval rating for Congress was 14% in July 2008 when the United States was dealing with record-high gas prices and the economy was in recession.

The current results are based on a Dec. 10-12 Gallup poll, conducted as Congress is finishing work on an important lame-duck session. The session has been highlighted by the agreement on taxes forged last week by President Obama and Republicans in Congress. The tax deal preserves the 2001 and 2003 income tax rates for all Americans for two years, revises the estate tax, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed for a year, and reduces payroll taxes for American workers. It is expected to pass despite vocal opposition from some lawmakers. Americans are generally more positive than negative toward the deal, but many Democrats in Congress oppose it. Frustration with the tax deal among Democrats in the general population could be a major reason for Americans’ historically low approval rating of Congress. That frustration could be opposition to the bill’s particulars or frustration with the Democrats in Congress opposing the president’s deal. Democrats’ approval of Congress is down significantly, to 16% now, from 29% in November. The November poll was conducted after Republicans won control of the House of Representatives for 2011-2012 in the midterm elections, so the drop in this month’s numbers is not a reaction to the Democrats’ midterm losses. Meanwhile, independents’ and Republicans’ ratings of Congress are down similar to November.

For the year, Congress averaged 19% approval among all Americans, tied with the averages for 1979 and 2008, and one percentage point above the 18% average for 1992. Those years were all marked by difficult economic times for the United States. Despite the historic lows, the prospects for a recovery in Congress’ approval ratings in the short term appear good, based on what Gallup has measured in the past when control of Congress changed hands. Gallup documented a 10-point increase in Congress’ approval rating from December 1994 to January 1995 after the Republicans officially took control of the House and Senate after the 1994 midterm elections. There was a larger 14-point increase in congressional approval ratings after the Democrats’ taking control of Congress in January 2007.

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December 15, 2010 OBAMA GETS MIXED REVIEWS FOR BIPARTISANSHIP ON TAX DEAL Majority is less optimistic about leaders’ ability to solve nation’s problems by Lydia Saad

Both increases were fueled by spikes in congressional approval among supporters of the new majority party.

Americans are very much divided over whether President Obama compromised too much, not enough, or the right amount with Republican leaders on their recent tax agreement. The largest segment of Americans, 38%, believe he struck the right balance, while, by 26% to 21%, slightly more say he did not compromise enough than say he compromised too much. Another 15% are unsure.

Bottom Line Americans currently hold Congress in lower esteem for the job it is doing than at any point in the last 36 years. In the past month, many of the supporters it had, largely Democrats, appear to have become frustrated with its work. That frustration seems to be taken out more on the Democratic congressional majority than on the president, whose approval rating has been relatively stable between 44% and 46% since the election among all Americans, and between 78% and 81% among Democrats. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 442

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These findings are based on a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Dec. 10-12. Some of the strongest congressional opposition to the tax deal has come from the Democratic caucus, stirring media speculation about whether Obama could face a challenge from the left in 2012. About a third of rank-and-file Democrats believe Obama compromised too much, but the majority (55%) say he either did not compromise enough or was about right. Along the same lines, most Democrats (78%) say either that their respect for Obama has grown as a result of his work on the tax agreement or that their opinion of him has not changed. Fewer than one in five—17%—say they respect him less. The views of Democrats on this issue mirror those of the American public.

Handling of Tax Deal Compounds Americans’ Pessimism The poll was conducted amid heated political debate in Washington over the merits of the compromise, and prior to any votes being cast. The rancorous tone from Congress during this period may not have sat well with Americans, and this is possibly seen in the sharp drop in Congress’ approval rating in December to a record-low 13%. Obama’s approval rating is largely unchanged.

More specifically, 51% of Americans say the way the president and both parties in Congress have handled the tax matter makes them less optimistic about the government’s ability to solve the nation’s biggest problems, far outweighing the 20% who are more optimistic.

December 16, 2010 CONSERVATIVES CONTINUE TO OUTNUMBER MODERATES IN 2010 Long term, Republicans growing more conservative, Democrats more liberal by Lydia Saad The political composition of U.S. adults held fairly steady in 2010 compared with 2009. Conservatives remained the largest group, followed by moderates and then liberals. At 35%, the percentage of moderates has declined to a new low, highlighting the increased political polarization that has occurred over the past decade.

Republicans are a bit less pessimistic in their interpretation of the tax negotiations than independents and Democrats. This may reflect the fact that, by 57% to 48%, Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats to support congressional passage of the plan, and may therefore be more tolerant of the process that produced it. More generally, 49% of Americans think Congress should pass the compromise plan, 32% think Congress should not pass it, and 18% are unsure. Bottom Line Americans have told Gallup they value compromise over principled conflict. Now that President Obama and Republican leaders have, indeed, compromised over the extension of the Bush tax cuts, Americans seem to be saying “the compromise is fine, but next time, do it more gracefully.”

Gallup measures Americans’ political ideology by asking respondents to define their views as very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal. The trends represent annual averages of stand-alone, multiday Gallup surveys conducted each year, with more than 26,000 interviews in the 2010 data set. In 2010, as in prior years, relatively few Americans described themselves as either very conservative (10%) or very liberal (6%). The vast majority of Americans favor the more temperate political labels.

Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Fewer people in all three party groups call themselves moderate today than did so in 2002, but the decline is particularly steep among Republicans. The percentage of Republicans calling themselves moderate fell from 31% in 2002 to 27% by 2006, and now stands at 23%. There has been a commensurate increase in the percentage of Republicans calling themselves conservative, now at a record-high 72%. Among Democrats, Gallup trends document declines in the proportion of moderates as well as conservatives. At the same time, the percentage of Democrats identifying as liberal has climbed from 29% in 2000 to a record-high 40% today. The ideological orientation of independents was fairly steady from 2000 through 2008, but since 2009, their views have followed

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the same path as Republicans’, becoming less moderate and more conservative. Still, the slight plurality of independents remain moderate.

Conservatism in 2010 Peaked in Second Quarter Although the percentage of conservatives among U.S. adults averaged 40% in 2010, it varied slightly during the year, peaking at 42% in the second quarter (after a 41% reading in the first quarter), in the first few months after passage of the landmark healthcare reform act. The conservative ID subsequently fell to 40% and 39% in the third and fourth quarters, and will bear watching in 2011. Bottom Line While the political pendulum in Washington can swing widely, Americans’ political ideology, like their party identification, tends to shift more gradually. Such a shift has been underway in recent years. While the changes are not large, they are unmistakable. Moderates are growing fewer in number while the percentages of conservatives and liberals have expanded. Conservatism has gained ground among Republicans and independents, while the growth in liberalism is strictly among Democrats. Survey Methods Results are based on aggregated data from Gallup polls conducted in 2010, each based on telephone interviews with 1,000 or more 444

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national adults, aged 18 and older. For results based on the total sample of 26,417 national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Other results are based on aggregated Gallup surveys of approximately 1,000 national adults each, aged 18 and older. Sample sizes for the annual compilations range from approximately 10,000 to approximately 40,000. For these results, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 17, 2010 IN U.S., NEW LOW OF 44.8% GET HEALTHCARE FROM EMPLOYER Government healthcare up, employer-based care down in 2010 vs. 2009 by Elizabeth Mendes A new low of 44.8% of American adults report getting their health insurance through an employer in November, down from 50% in January 2008, when Gallup began tracking it. The percentage of Americans with government-based healthcare remains elevated, with the 26% who report having it last month similar to the high of 26.3% found in September. Half of Americans reported having employer-based health coverage in January and February 2008. The figure remained near the 49% mark throughout much of the rest of that year, before dropping to 48% in November 2008, as the financial crisis and unemployment worsened. Over the same time period, Gallup has tracked an increase in the percentage of Americans with government healthcare— Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits. Gallup asks Americans about their healthcare coverage daily as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. The monthly data for November are based on interviews with 27,218 Americans. Nearly one in six (16.1%) American adults report that they did not have health insurance in November, a figure that is down slightly from a high of 16.8% in May of this year.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Nov. 1-30, 2010, with a random sample of 27,218 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. The number of uninsured increased significantly in the fall of 2008 and rose above 16% for the first time in February 2009. Since that time, approximately one in six Americans continue to report that they are uninsured. Bottom Line Even as the Obama administration works to implement various aspects of the new healthcare law, many lawmakers in Congress and in numerous U.S. states are actively trying to reverse or change it. A U.S. District Court judge in Virginia on Monday declared a key part of the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional. The ruling against the provision requiring all Americans to buy health insurance starting in 2014 is the first to strike down any part of the law and has created additional uncertainty about its fate. The final decision on the matter could significantly affect whether the elevated number of the uninsured in America decreases over time, one of the primary goals of the legislation. Although up significantly from 2008, the average percentage of uninsured Americans so far in 2010 is essentially on par with 2009. The number of Americans who say they have employer-based coverage, however, is steadily declining this year compared with last, while the number of those with government healthcare is increasing. The increase in those with government healthcare likely stems from an increasing number of baby boomers becoming eligible for Medicare, as well as a continuing high unemployment rate, which is moving more Americans off employer-based plans and increasing the percentage relying on Medicaid. Gallup and Healthways will continue to monitor health insurance coverage in the United States and regularly report updates on Gallup.com.

December 17, 2010 FOUR IN 10 AMERICANS BELIEVE IN STRICT CREATIONISM Belief in evolutionary origins of humans slowly rising, however by Frank Newport Four in 10 Americans, slightly fewer today than in years past, believe God created humans in their present form about 10,000 years ago. Thirty-eight percent believe God guided a process by which humans developed over millions of years from less advanced life forms, while 16%, up slightly from years past, believe humans developed over millions of years, without God’s involvement. A small minority of Americans hold the “secular evolution” view that humans evolved with no influence from God—but the number has risen from 9% in 1982 to 16% today. At the same time, the 40% of Americans who hold the “creationist” view that God created humans as is 10,000 years ago is the lowest in Gallup’s history of asking this question, and down from a high point of 47% in 1993 and 1999. There has been little change over the years in the percentage holding the “theistic evolution” view that humans evolved under God’s guidance. Americans’ views on human origins vary significantly by level of education and religiosity. Those who are less educated are more likely to hold a creationist view. Those with college degrees and postgraduate education are more likely to hold one of the two viewpoints involving evolution.

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surprise many scientists is that 4 out of 10 Americans believe in the first of these explanations. These views have been generally stable over the last 28 years. Acceptance of the creationist viewpoint has decreased slightly over time, with a concomitant rise in acceptance of a secular evolution perspective. But these shifts have not been large, and the basic structure of beliefs about human beings’ origins is generally the same as it was in the early 1980s. Americans’ attitudes about almost anything can and often do have political consequences. Views on the origins of humans are no exception. Debates and clashes over which explanations for human origins should be included in school textbooks have persisted for decades. With 40% of Americans continuing to hold to an anti-evolutionary belief about the origin of humans, it is highly likely that these types of debates will continue. Survey Methods Americans who attend church frequently are most likely to accept explanations for the origin of humans that involve God, not a surprising finding. Still, the creationist viewpoint, held by 60% of weekly churchgoers, is not universal even among the most highly religious group. Also, about a fourth of those who seldom or never attend church choose the creationist view

The significantly higher percentage of Republicans who choose a creationist view of human origins reflects in part the strong relationship between religion and politics in contemporary America. Republicans are significantly more likely to attend church weekly than are others, and, as noted, Americans who attend church weekly are most likely to select the creationist alternative for the origin of humans. Implications Most Americans believe in God, and about 85% have a religious identity. It is not surprising as a result to find that about 8 in 10 Americans hold a view of human origins that involves actions by God—that he either created humans as depicted in the book of Genesis, or guided a process of evolution. What no doubt continues to

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Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 20, 2010 IN U.S., SATISFACTION DIPS TO 17% AT YEAR’S END Economy, jobs continue to rate as most important problems

Either the economy or unemployment has been the top problem each month since February 2008. Those two issues have ranked first and second each month this year.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Seventeen percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time, the low point in a year when satisfaction levels generally have been in the 20% range.

Implications

The current 17% satisfaction rating is low from a historical perspective, but still exceeds the all-time low, 7% in an October 2008 poll. Gallup first asked this trend question in 1979. More generally, satisfaction averaged 22% this year, lower than all but three yearly averages—2008 (15%), 1979 (19%), and 1992 (21%). The historical average across all years is 40%, and the yearly averages have been below that mark since 2006.

The United States’ continuing economic struggles are likely the reason behind the low satisfaction levels. Gallup’s “most important problem” question confirms this, as 30% of Americans say the economy in general is the top problem and 24% say unemployment or jobs specifically, easily the top two issues mentioned. Thirteen percent mention dissatisfaction with the government, 10% the federal budget deficit, and 8% healthcare.

Americans end the year in a rather sour mood, with only 17% satisfied with the way things are going in the United States. Satisfaction has been below the historical average in each of the last five years, and has recovered only modestly from the record lows of 2008. Satisfaction levels will probably not show sustained improvement until the economy turns around, as the economy typically weighs heavily in Americans’ assessments of whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with conditions in the United States. Survey Methods Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using randomdigit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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December 21, 2010 U.S. INTERNET USERS READY TO LIMIT ONLINE TRACKING FOR ADS However, many are amenable to being tracked by advertisers they choose

on websites they have previously visited. On the other, 9 in 10 say they pay little or no attention to online ads. These assessments vary little by age and income.

by Lymari Morales U.S. Internet users would likely welcome a “Do Not Track” measure like the one the Federal Trade Commission is currently considering to keep advertisers from tracking their movements online. Gallup finds Internet users largely aware that advertisers use their online browsing history to target ads to their interests, but largely opposed to such tactics—even if they help to keep websites free.

The results, from a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Dec. 1012, 2010, come as the Federal Trade Commission considers a measure that would allow Internet users to essentially opt out of online tracking, as they do with the telemarketing “Do Not Call” list. AdWeek in a recent editorial said such a measure would amount to an “apocalypse” for online advertisers, particularly for the fast-growing $1.1 billion industry that relies on these tactics to target content to users. In the Gallup survey, 50% of Americans reported using the Internet for more than an hour per day, including 68% of 18- to 34year-olds, 55% of 35- to 54-year-olds, and 69% of those making at least $75,000 per year. These highly sought-after Internet users are slightly more likely than the oldest and least affluent users to say tracking tactics should be allowed, though they are still largely opposed.

One bright spot for advertisers is that when given the choice, at least a plurality of both young and affluent Americans say they would prefer to allow the advertisers of their choosing to target ads to them—rather than allow all or no advertisers to do so. The oldest and least affluent Americans are the most likely to say they would prefer that no advertisers be allowed to target ads to them.

Implications

Internet users send a mixed message about how much these ads are influencing them. On the one hand, more than 6 in 10 say they have noticed that some ads are targeted specifically to them based

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Internet users are overwhelmingly negative about whether it is OK for advertisers to use their online browsing history to target ads to them, suggesting they would largely welcome regulation to limit the use of such tactics. The vast majority of Internet users—including the young and the affluent—say they do not pay much attention to online ads, though many will admit they have noticed the specific, customized nature of the content. Internet users’ attitudes do, however, provide useful intelligence for the online advertising industry to chart a more positive—and perhaps more influential—course of action. Because young and affluent Internet users appear amenable to targeted advertising from the advertisers they specifically choose, advertisers may be best advised

to consciously ask users if they are willing to get customized advertisements from them. Doing so would limit ads to those users want to see, thus likely increasing the amount of attention users pay to them and decreasing their displeasure with advertisers more broadly. If the FTC moves forward with a “Do Not Track” measure that is voluntary for advertisers, Internet users’ clear desire is for online advertisers to sign up—and leave decisions about who can track them squarely in users’ hands. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 840 Internet users, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 22, 2010 AMERICANS SEE U.S. AS EXCEPTIONAL; 37% DOUBT OBAMA DOES Majority believe U.S. at risk of losing status as greatest country in the world

The poll does not delve into possible reasons why Americans think the United States’ stature is at risk. It is possible this viewpoint reflects Americans’ tendency to see national conditions as getting worse rather than improving. Gallup has observed this pattern in a variety of areas, including the state of U.S. morals, the quality of the environment, the crime situation in the U.S., and the economy. Some Republican critics, however, imply that Barack Obama’s policies, including his approach to foreign policy, are a threat to the United States’ status as the world’s greatest nation. On the whole, Americans, by 58% to 37%, believe Obama thinks the U.S. is exceptional, consistent with what he and his advisers maintain. But Americans are less likely to believe Obama holds this view than they are to think the same about Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush.

Americans who identify as Republicans, likely reflecting the opinions of some of their party’s leaders, are especially dubious that Obama regards the U.S. as exceptional. Thirty-four percent of Republicans believe the president thinks the United States is the greatest country in the world, while 61% believe he does not. Democrats are much more confident that Obama regards the United States as exceptional, while the majority of independents agree.

by Jeffrey M. Jones Americans widely agree that the United States has a unique character because of its history and Constitution that sets it apart from other nations as the greatest in the world. This view, commonly referred to as “U.S. exceptionalism,” is shared by at least 73% of Americans in all party groups, including 91% of Republicans. At the same time that Americans believe the U.S. is exceptional, they also are inclined to believe that status is far from secure, according to the Dec. 10-12 USA Today/Gallup poll. Three-quarters of those who believe the U.S. is exceptional (62% of all Americans) also believe the U.S. is currently at risk of losing its unique character.

Americans Believe U.S. Has Responsibility to Lead in World Affairs One of the extensions of the belief in American exceptionalism is the notion that, because of its status, the United States has an obligation

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to be the leading nation in world affairs. Americans generally endorse this position, as 66% say the United States has “a special responsibility to be the leading nation in world affairs.” Republicans, Democrats, and independents generally agree, with fairly modest differences among party supporters.

December 22, 2010 CONSUMER SPENDING SHOWS A PRE-CHRISTMAS SURGE Overall self-reported consumer spending surged to an average of $99 per day from Dec. 19-21 by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist Overall self-reported consumer spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online jumped to an average of $99 per day from Dec. 19-21, suggesting there could be a last-minute spending surge during the week before Christmas.

Implications Some of President Obama’s potential Republican challengers are among those who have suggested that the U.S. is exceptional, but that this status is at risk. This could be an issue in the 2012 presidential campaign. Given that Americans already believe that the U.S. is exceptional and that its status as the greatest nation in the world is at risk, Republican candidates’ political challenges would be to convince voters that Obama’s policies and actions on the world stage are to blame, and that he does not share their values on this issue. On the other hand, Americans’ beliefs about U.S. exceptionalism may in general reflect a tendency to be patriotic when asked about the United States. And their views about the United States’ exceptional status being at risk could stem from their usually seeing conditions for the United States as getting worse rather than better in a variety of areas. Thus, it is not clear how entrenched their views of U.S. exceptionalism are, and, more importantly, how consequential these views may be to their 2012 vote. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted December 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 450

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Prior to this week, Gallup’s self-reported spending measure found spending during recent weeks trailing that of a year ago. While spending did spurt during the week ending Dec. 19, consumers’ self-reported outlays only matched those during the same week a year ago. In fact, even with what might be a last-minute spending spree, consumers’ December 2010 expenditures are not likely to greatly exceed the $72 average spending of December 2009. Commentary Many Americans may be spending more at the last minute this year simply because of the calendar and the psychology surrounding it. This year’s Saturday Christmas may be sneaking up on consumers because the combination of Thanksgiving coming late this year and the lack of a weekend just before Christmas may have made some consumers feel as though they had more time to make their holiday purchases than is really the case. Recognition that time is running out could create a somewhat greater-than-usual last-minute rush of Christmas spending this year. Further, the last-minute extension of the Bush tax cuts may encourage upper-income consumers to spend more freely now than they did a few weeks ago. The recent highs on Wall Street and the related so-called “wealth effects” would suggest these consumers have the resources to spend if they feel secure about doing so. Much of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to boost the economy and the immediate-term benefits of the new tax-cut-extension legislation that has economists so optimistic about 2011 have yet to be realized by the average American. Still, increased optimism on Wall Street and in corporate America might help Americans who have jobs feel more secure that they will not lose them in 2011. In turn, this may help many middle- and lower-income Americans feel better about spending as Christmas approaches.

Most importantly, Gallup’s most recent spending results suggest the nation’s retailers could be in for some surprisingly good days during this last week before Christmas—something everyone could use after a challenging year for consumers and retailers alike. Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking during the weeks ending Nov. 28, Dec. 5, Dec. 12, and Dec. 19, 2010, with random samples of approximately 3,000 adults each week, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total weekly samples of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

• Moderately religious—All others who do not fall into the very religious or nonreligious groups but who gave valid responses on both religion questions. This group constitutes 26.6% of the adult population. • Nonreligious—Religion is not an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs seldom or never. This group constitutes 29.7% of the adult population. Previous research has shown that religiosity, defined either as church attendance or self-reported importance of religion, is related to age, gender, race and ethnicity, region and state of the country, socioeconomic status, marital status, and child-bearing status. Because wellbeing is also related to these variables, this analysis statistically controls for all of these characteristics. Very Religious Smoke Less, Exercise More, and Eat Healthier Very religious Americans make healthier choices than their moderately religious and nonreligious counterparts across all four of the Healthy Behavior Index metrics, including smoking, healthy eating, and regular exercise. Smoking is one area of particular differentiation between the very religious and less religious Americans, with the nonreligious 85% more likely to be smokers than those who are very religious.

December 23, 2010 VERY RELIGIOUS AMERICANS LEAD HEALTHIER LIVES Relationship holds when controlling for key demographics by Frank Newport, Sangeeta Agrawal, and Dan Witters Very religious Americans are more likely to practice healthy behaviors than those who are moderately religious or nonreligious. The most religious Americans score a 66.3 on the Gallup-Healthways Healthy Behavior Index compared with 60.6 among those who are moderately religious and 58.3 for the nonreligious. This relationship, based on an analysis of more than 550,000 interviews, is statistically significant after controlling for major demographic and regional variables. For the purposes of this analysis, an American’s relative degree of religiousness is based on responses to two questions asking about the importance of religion and church attendance, yielding three specific groups: • Very religious—Religion is an important part of daily life and church/synagogue/mosque attendance occurs at least every week or almost every week. This group constitutes 43.7% of the adult population.

Very religious Americans also outperform the moderately religious and nonreligious in terms of eating healthy and getting frequent exercise. Implications There are a number of factors that could contribute to very religious Americans’ healthier lifestyle choices. Some of these factors are likely overt products of religious doctrine itself, including rules related to smoking and substance abuse. Seventh-Day Adventists, for example, strictly adhere to vegetarian lifestyles free of alcohol

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and smoking, while orthodox Mormons and Muslims do not drink alcohol. In some Christian denominations, gluttony and sloth are considered two of the seven deadly sins, and many evangelical faiths frown on drinking and smoking. The Bible indicates that one’s body is the “temple of God,” which could in turn help explain the relationship between religious orthodoxy and exercise and certain types of food consumption. It is possible, of course, that the noted relationship between health and religiosity could go in the other direction—that people who are healthier are the most likely to make the decision to be religious. This could be particularly relevant in terms of church attendance, one of the constituent components of Gallup’s definition of religiousness. Healthier people may be more likely and able to attend religious services than those who are less healthy. It may also be possible that certain types of individuals are more likely to make healthy lifestyle choices and more likely to choose to be highly religious. The most parsimonious explanation, however, may be the most intuitive: Those who capitalize on the social and moral outcomes of religious norms and acts are more likely to lead lives filled with healthier choices.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 24, 2010 CHRISTMAS STRONGLY RELIGIOUS FOR HALF IN U.S. WHO CELEBRATE IT Secular traditions more common among Americans than religious traditions by Jeffrey M. Jones Ninety-five percent of Americans celebrate Christmas, and of these, 51% describe the holiday as “strongly religious” for them, continuing an upward trend seen since 1989.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey Jan. 2-July 28, 2010, with a random sample of 554,066 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. Of this sample, very religious respondents comprised the plurality (43.7%), with slightly more than one-quarter each for moderately religious and nonreligious respondents.

For results based on the religiosity groups of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±0.5 percentage point for each group. Generalized linear model analysis was used to estimate marginal scores for all five reported metrics after controlling for age (in years), gender, race/ethnicity, marital status, education (number of years), log of income, and region of the country. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

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This trend toward greater religious meaning in Christmas is evident even as the percentage of Americans who say they celebrate Christmas has stayed consistent in recent years—ranging between 93% and 96% in six separate Gallup measurements since 1994. The poll finds a majority of Americans incorporating specific religious activities or symbols into their holiday celebrations. This includes 62% who attend religious services on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, 65% who display decorations with a religious meaning, and 78% who take time to reflect on the birth of Christ. However, Americans are much more likely to engage in secular Christmas traditions such as exchanging gifts (93%), spending time with family and friends on the holiday (93%), and putting up a Christmas tree (88%). The figures are slightly higher among Americans who celebrate Christmas, including exchanging gifts and spending time with family and friends, which are almost universal traditions, at 97%. Religious traditions are, not surprisingly, more common among those who say the holiday is strongly religious to them. Nearly all members of this group, 98%, say they take time at Christmas to reflect on the birth of Christ. More than 8 in 10 attend religious services on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, or display religious decorations. But even among those who say Christmas is a strongly religious holiday to them, many of the secular traditions are just as common if not more so than the religious ones. Generally speaking, those who say Christmas is not too religious a holiday for them are less likely to participate in most of the common traditions. But even those who attach little religious meaning to Christmas are just as likely as those who view Christmas as a religious holiday to exchange gifts, spend time with family and

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 27, 2010 ALL 10 STATES LOSING CONGRESSIONAL SEATS TILT DEMOCRATIC Five of the eight states that are gaining seats skew Republican by Frank Newport Each of the 10 states losing congressional seats as a result of the newly announced 2010 census reapportionment process is politically Democratic, based on a Gallup political identification measure from the first six months of this year. Five of the eight states gaining seats skew Republican. friends on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and attend Christmas parties. Implications Though it has Christian underpinnings, the Christmas holiday is celebrated nearly universally by Americans, including 80% of nonChristians. Part of the reason for this is Americans’ widespread involvement in nonreligious aspects of Christmas, including exchanging gifts and getting together with friends and relatives. Over the past three decades, the percentage of those who celebrate Christmas and describe it as a “strongly religious” holiday for them has increased. Thus, the religious aspect of the Christmas holiday may be growing in importance; however, Americans are more likely to participate in nonreligious Christmas traditions than in religious ones. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. For results based on the total sample of 970 national adults who celebrate Christmas, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

The results of the decennial census are used to reapportion the 435 House seats assigned to the 50 states. Each state receives a minimum of one congressional seat, with the remaining 385 seats apportioned according to the states’ relative population sizes. The results of this process are inherently political. States that gain congressional seats have more power in Congress, and—because electoral votes are directly related to the number of congressional seats held by each state—more election clout. Over the years, relative changes in population across the states have resulted in extraordinary shifts in political power. The traditionally

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Democratic state of New York, for example, has gone from 45 congressional seats after the 1940 census to 27 seats after the 2010 census. On the other hand, Texas, in recent decades a reliably Republican state, has gone from 21 to 36 seats during the same time frame. Nine of the 10 states that lost congressional seats as a result of this year’s census are in the Northeast or Midwest. The exception is Louisiana, whose population loss at least partly as a result of Hurricane Katrina cost it a seat. Politically, all 10 of these “losing” states skew Democratic in political orientation, based on Gallup’s latest state political identification data from January through June of this year. The two states that each lost two seats, Ohio and New York, have a net Democratic political identification of +7 and +19, respectively. The Democratic margin in the other eight losing states ranges from +20 in Massachusetts to +1 in Missouri. The eight states that gained congressional seats this year present a more mixed political picture. Texas was the big winner, gaining four seats as a result of its extraordinary growth from a population of almost 21 million in 2000 to 25 million in 2010. Texas has a net Democratic party identification of -3, meaning that more Texas adults identify as Republicans than as Democrats. On the other hand, Florida gained two seats, and has a net Democratic identification of +4. Party identification skews Republican in four of the remaining six states, all of which gained one congressional seat, ranging from a -32 net Democratic margin in Utah (Utah is the most Republican state) to -3 in Georgia. Both Nevada and Washington have net positive Democratic party identifications. Implications The full political implications of congressional seat losses in 10 Democratic states remain to be seen, and will in large part depend on the process of redistricting that will now get underway in each state. It is assumed that Democrats will lose some representation in the House as a net result of this process, but the precise way this will play out is not entirely clear. Similarly, although the majority of the states gaining seats are Republican in orientation, it is not clear whether the newly created House districts in each of those states will necessarily end up with a Republican representative, although it can be assumed that the net number of Republican seats in these states will increase. The impact of reapportionment on the presidential election process is more straightforward. Traditionally blue states are losing electoral votes, while traditionally red states are gaining them. Various calculations have shown that Barack Obama would still have won the 2008 election even if the electoral votes were divided based on the new census apportionment. But the shift in population between states could give a Republican candidate just enough of an edge to bring victory in a close 2012 presidential race.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 27, 2010 BARACK OBAMA, HILLARY CLINTON ARE 2010’s MOST ADMIRED Sarah Palin and Oprah Winfrey are closely matched behind Clinton by Lydia Saad President Barack Obama is Americans’ Most Admired Man of 2010, substantially ahead of the former presidents, iconic religious leaders, and others who fill out the top 10 list. Obama first became Americans’ Most Admired Man in 2008, shortly after his election as the nation’s 44th president, and has held the title since then.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Jan. 2-June 30, 2010, with a random sample of 176,545 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. The margin of sampling error varies from state to state depending on the number of interviews conducted in each state. 454

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Obama is the runaway favorite for Most Admired Man among Democrats nationwide: 46% choose him, followed by 7% who pick Bill Clinton and 5% Nelson Mandela. Obama also leads among independents, with 17%, but ranks second among Republicans behind George W. Bush. Sitting presidents have dominated Gallup’s Most Admired Man poll over the years, achieving No. 1 in 52 out of 64 measures since Gallup initiated the question in 1946.

The 22% of Americans naming Obama this year as the man they most admire of any living man in the world is typical for presidents in their second year of office. However, Obama does less well this year than in previous years. The 30% naming him in 2009 was among the highest for recent presidents in their first year in office. The 32% naming Obama in December 2008 was extraordinarily high for a president-elect, similar to the percentage seen for Dwight Eisenhower.

as president; Nancy Reagan, who achieved it three times in Ronald Reagan’s two terms; Barbara Bush, who achieved it twice in her husband’s single term; and Rosalynn Carter, who tied for or placed first in three years during her husband’s single term. No first lady has won the top overall ranking since Laura Bush in 2001. Thus far as first lady, Obama, like Laura Bush for most of her husband’s presidency, has not garnered high mentions as Most Admired Woman. Her single-digit performances on the list since Barack Obama took office are on the low side for other first ladies since Carter at this point in their husband’s first term.

Also notable is Billy Graham’s 54th appearance in the top 10, nearly double the number of appearances of Ronald Reagan, who has the second-most top 10s, at 31. Jimmy Carter made the top 10 this year after a two-year absence, his 27th appearance, tied with Pope John Paul II for third all-time. Clinton Continues Reign as Most Admired Woman Hillary Clinton is the Most Admired Woman this year, her ninth consecutive year at No. 1. In fact, the order of the top six women named in 2010 is identical to 2009, with Sarah Palin, Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Condoleezza Rice, and Queen Elizabeth following Clinton. Clinton has dominated the Most Admired Woman title for most of the past two decades, earning 15 No. 1 rankings since her first appearance on the list in 1992. She joins Eleanor Roosevelt and Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis as first ladies whose strong popularity has extended well beyond her husband’s presidency, although, given Clinton’s post-White House political career, perhaps for different reasons. Historically, first ladies have figured prominently on the list, typically appearing in the top three at some point during their White House tenure. However, they are much less likely than presidents to win the top spot. First ladies who have succeeded in placing first include Clinton, with six No. 1 rankings in Bill Clinton’s two terms

One reason Michelle Obama may not garner higher mentions is that many Democrats, who might otherwise name a Democratic first lady, instead name Hillary Clinton. However, Obama also trails Oprah Winfrey in mentions among Democrats.

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Queen Elizabeth makes her 43rd appearance in the top 10, the record for any woman. Winfrey enjoys both high ranking and longevity on the list, ranking second or third each year since 1997 (although never No. 1), and placing in the top 10 every year since 1988. Survey Methods Results for this USA Today/Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only). Each sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone-only respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, education, region, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in continental U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. Christmas Week Spending Surges Across the Nation Weekly spending ran slightly below year-ago levels in most regions of the country during the first two weeks of December. Spending matched that of 2009 during the week ending Dec. 19 before passing year-ago levels during Christmas week. December 29, 2010 UPPER-INCOME SHOPPERS LEAD STRONG CHRISTMAS WEEK SPENDING Upper-income and overall self-reported consumer spending tops same week last year by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist An upper-income spending splurge led the way to strong selfreported spending during Christmas week 2010. Upper-income Americans’ self-reported consumer spending in stores, restaurants, gas stations, and online averaged $183 per day during the week ending Dec. 26—up from $126 during the same week in 2009. After matching 2009 spending levels during the week ending Dec. 5, and trailing during the week ending Dec. 12, upper-income spending surpassed year-ago levels during the week ending Dec. 19 before surging during Christmas week. Overall Spending Jumped During Christmas Week Americans’ overall self-reported spending surged to an average of $85 per day during the week ending Dec. 26—up from $77 during the prior week and $66 during the first two weeks of December. As a result, spending during Christmas week 2010 exceeded that of 2009 and 2008.

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Implications Although Gallup’s consumer spending data are more a measure of whether consumers are spending or saving their disposable incomes, this late surge in upper-income spending is consistent with the sharp increase in weekly shopping center sales reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers, and with an increase in retail sales as projected by MasterCard SpendingPulse. Further, Gallup’s Christmas week results might be interpreted as reflecting an immediate-term success for the new legislation extending the Bush tax cuts signed a little more than a week ago. During the first two weeks of December, and prior to passage of this bill that also extended unemployment benefits and added new Obama tax cuts, upper-income Americans seemed to be holding back with their spending, lagging behind that of 2009. Although some might argue the Christmas week upper-income spending splurge is a coincidence, upper-income consumers report spending substantially more following the passage of the bill. Upper-income spending is essential to future economic growth and the creation of new jobs. Upper-income Americans are the consumers who have the disposable income to spend if they so choose and they have been holding back given the uncertainties surrounding the future course of the economy and, possibly, government tax policies. By increasing tax certainty for the next two years, the new legislation might have encouraged these better-off consumers to feel more comfortable spending more freely during Christmas week. The “wealth effects” associated with increasing stock values on Wall Street may have also encouraged upper-income spending late this year. Regardless, Gallup’s most recent spending results suggest that the nation’s retailers have had a surprisingly good Christmas—particularly, those who serve upper-income consumers. In turn, this lays the ground work for increased optimism about the economy as we enter 2011.

ures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 29, 2010 NEAR-RECORD HIGH SEE RELIGION LOSING INFLUENCE IN AMERICA Current 70% nears all-time high of 75% recorded in 1970 by Frank Newport Seven in 10 Americans say religion is losing its influence on American life—one of the highest such responses in Gallup’s 53-year history of asking this question, and significantly higher than in the first half of the past decade.

Survey Methods Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Daily tracking survey during the week ending Dec. 26, 2010, with a random sample of 2,464 adults, with weekly random samples of about 3,000 adults for each of the first three weeks of December, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For results based on the total monthly sample of more than 15,000 national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±1 percentage point. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey fig-

Americans’ views of the influence of religion in the U.S. have fluctuated substantially in the years since 1957, when Gallup first asked this question. At that point, perhaps reflecting the general focus on family values that characterized the Eisenhower era, 69% of Americans said religion was increasing its influence, the most in Gallup’s history. Views of the influence of religion shifted dramatically in the mid-1960s. By 1970, in the midst of the protests over the Vietnam War and general social upheaval, a record 75% of Americans said religion was losing influence in American society. These views moderated in the years thereafter. At several points during the Reagan administration, a plurality of Americans returned to the view that religion was increasing its influence. By the early 1990s, Americans became more convinced again that religion was losing its influence. These views persisted until a sharp reversal after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when a number of social and political indicators, including presidential and congressional approval and overall satisfaction with the way things were going, showed substantial increases. Views that religion was increasing in influence began to fade in the second half of the last decade. The 7 in 10 Americans who now say religion is losing its influence is tied with 2009 for the most who have held such a view since 1970.

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Personal Importance of Religion Broadly Stable in Recent Years Americans’ views about the influence of religion in their own lives have been considerably more stable over the past six or seven decades than their views about the influence of religion on American society. Fifty-four percent of Americans in 2010 say religion is “very important” in their lives. This is down slightly from the past two decades, but roughly equal with levels measured in the 1980s. Americans were much more positive about the effect of religion on their own lives in the 1950s and 1960s, including the historic high of 75% who said religion was very important in 1952.

Church and Synagogue Membership Reflects Slow Decline Self-reported church or synagogue membership has drifted slowly downward over the past 70 years. The current 61% of Americans who report church or synagogue membership is tied with 2007 and 2008 as the lowest in Gallup’s history and down significantly from a high of 76% in 1947.

Gallup’s trends reflecting more personal views of religion do not show the same patterns of fluctuation as the broader questions about American society. What trends there are provide a somewhat mixed message. While almost all measures show that Americans were more religious in the 1940s and 1950s than in recent decades, Americans appear to be as personally religious now as they were in the late 1970s and 1980s. Church and synagogue membership, on the other hand, has drifted downward in a more steady fashion. The current 61% of Americans who report being a church or synagogue member is as low as has been measured by Gallup since the 1930s. Survey Methods Results for the 2010 Gallup poll aggregate are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-6 and Dec. 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 2,048 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cellphone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

December 30, 2010 “SEASON OF PROGRESS” DOES LITTLE FOR OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING Latest 47% approval rating is close to post-midterm average by Lydia Saad Implications When Gallup asks Americans to opine about the influence of religion on American society in general, they most likely take into account a wide variety of social, political, and economic factors in arriving at their responses. Although views that religion was increasing its influence were highest during the Republican administrations of Eisenhower, Reagan, and George W. Bush, this political connection does not appear to be the primary explanatory factor. Views on the increasing influence of religion were quite low during the Republican administrations of Richard Nixon and George H.W. Bush. 458

THE GALLUP POLL

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating for Dec. 26-28 is 47%, down slightly from his post-midterm-election peak of 49% recorded last week, and close to his average level of approval since November. Currently, 46% of Americans disapprove of Obama’s job performance. The general stability in Obama’s approval rating since the Nov. 2 midterm elections—in which his party lost majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives—can be characterized as positive for Obama. Most presidents whose party suffers major midterm losses see their approval ratings fall. However, one might have

ton with 40% and Ronald Reagan with 43%) at the same point in their presidencies. Jimmy Carter (51%), George H.W. Bush (63%), and George W. Bush (61%) each had higher approval ratings at the close of their second year. Survey Methods

expected Obama to see a bump in approval from the flurry of legislation passed in Congress prior to the Christmas recess. These include a bipartisan agreement to extend the Bush tax cuts, repealing the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy for gay service members, passing a major food safety bill, and Senate ratification of the START arms reduction treaty with Russia. Recent Gallup polling shows that all of these measures were supported by at least a plurality of Americans and, in some cases, a solid majority. The president’s approval rating briefly rose to 49% last week, in Gallup Daily tracking from Dec. 20-22, as Congress wrapped up work on these bills. Obama held a news conference on Wednesday in which he touted the historic nature of the 111th Congress’ achievements, as well as his ability to work with Republicans to overcome gridlock, calling it a “season of progress.” However, in Gallup polling since Christmas, Obama’s approval rating slid back slightly to 47%, nearly matching his average 46% approval rating since the start of November. Thus, he is closing out his second year in office with a slightly lower approval rating than at the end of his first year. In 2009, his approval ratings between Christmas and New Year’s ranged from 51% to 53%. Obama’s approval ratings at the end of his second year in office are higher than approval of two of the last five presidents (Bill Clin-

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Dec. 26-28, 2010, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,531 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digitdial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 150 cell-phone respondents and 850 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell-phone-only status, cell-phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2009 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design. The questions reported here were asked of a random half-sample of respondents for 3 nights on the Gallup Daily tracking survey. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

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Index abortion age and, 93–94 consider yourself pro-choice or pro-life, 160–61 education and, 142–43 gender and, 142–43 healthcare reform and, 81 moral decline and, 162 as morally acceptable, 160–61, 174–75 new normal position on, 160–61 political affiliation and, 81–82 Tea Party and, 115 trends in views of, 81–82 accountability, moral decline and, 162 accounting, image of, 285 trends in, 292 acid rain, worry about, 97 advertising and public relations image of, 285 online tracking for ads, 448 practitioners of, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 Affordable Care Act. See healthcare reform Afghanistan opinion of, 66 U.S. military action in costs of, 419 how things are going, 232, 260, 418–19 McChrystal, Stanley, and, 214–15 media and, 28 as mistake, 232, 260, 353, 419 mood and, 2 as most important issue, 234 Obama, Barack, and, 271, 421–22 party preferred to deal with, 189, 297 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 timetable for, 216, 419 as voting issue, 118, 297, 371 withdrawal from, as priority, 353 African Americans. See blacks age abortion and, 93–94, 160 alcohol and, 256–57 cancer and, 111–12, 133 church attendance and, 213 computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 early voting and, 372–73

education and, 307 election of 2010 and, 339 enthusiasm for election and, 83, 138–39 entitlement reforms and, 360 environmental movement and, 134 exercise and, 16 foreign cars and, 87 global warming and, 92 government and, 307 government jobs and, 34 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 104, 106, 207 healthcare satisfaction and, 411–12 health insurance and, 10, 31–32, 68 jobs and, 30 Kagan, Elena, and, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 media and, 276 medical advice and, 426–27 military and, well-being and, 218, 235, 280 Obama, Barack, and, 6, 79, 156, 341 obesity and, 50–51, 295, 351 online tracking for ads and, 448 optimism and, 2–3 patriotism and, 222 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15 smoking and, 168–69 Social Security and, 241, 256 spending and, 21, 72, 120, 167 standard of living and, 231 swing voters and, 374 Tea Party and, 115 threats to country and, 62 travel plans and, 179 unemployment and, 185 United Nations and, 67–68 voter turnout and, 301–2 agriculture. See farms AIDS, as most important issue, 406 air, pollution of, worry about, 97–98 airline industry, image of, 285 trends in, 288–89, 292 Alabama church attendance in, 62 ideology in, 42, 259

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

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jobs in, 53 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 Alaska access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 well-being in, 60, 247–48 alcohol, alcoholic beverages, 256–57 abuse of, as most important issue, 406 aliens. See immigrants Alito, Samuel, 157, 185–86, 237, 264 American Lung Association, smoking policy ratings, 290 American people confidence in, 357–58 exceptionalism and, 449–50 as strength, 63 anger, BMI and, 315 animals cloning of, as morally acceptable, 174–75 extinction of, worry about, 97 fur of, buying and wearing clothing made of, as morally acceptable, 174–75 medical testing on, as morally acceptable, 174–75 annuities, as retirement income, 143–44, 341 apathy moral decline and, 162 as weakness, 64 approval ratings of Bush, George H. W., 5, 17–19, 25–26, 131, 180, 242, 269, 329, 359, 366, 459 of Bush, George W., 5, 17–19, 25–26, 79, 98–99, 131, 170, 180, 242, 269, 329, 359, 366, 459 of Carter, Jimmy, 5, 17–19, 25–26, 131, 242, 269, 329, 359, 366, 459 of Clinton, Bill, 5, 17–19, 25–26, 79, 131, 170, 180–81, 242, 261–62, 269, 329, 359, 366, 459 of Congress, 46–47, 210, 270, 317, 329, 359 of Democrats in Congress, 124 of Eisenhower, Dwight D., 5, 17–19, 25–26, 131, 242, 269, 329, 366 of Ford, Gerald, 17, 19, 25–26, 131, 269, 329, 429 of handlers of BP oil spill, 205 of Johnson, Lyndon B., 18, 25–26, 131, 269, 329, 429 of Kennedy, John F., 5, 17–19, 25–26, 131, 242, 269, 329, 366 of labor unions, trends in, 273–74 of Nixon, Richard, 5, 17–19, 25–26, 131, 242, 269, 329, 366 of Obama, Barack, 5–6 Afghanistan and, 216 age and, 79 versus Congress, 359 demographics of, 341

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THE GALLUP POLL

education and, 32–33 expectations and, 98–99 versus favorability ratings, 180 fifth quarter, 130–31 first year, 17–18 gender gap and, 170–71 healthcare reform and, 115–16 issues and, 271–72, 421–22 midterm elections and, 380 oil spill and, 205 partisan gap in, 25–26, 80 party identification and, 45–46 quarterly averages, 17 race and, 189 re-election chances and, 55 religion and, 290–91 second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366–67 sixth quarter, 242 states and, 239–40 trends in, 317 presidential, 428–29 versus Congress, 359 midterm elections and, 268–69, 328–29, 380 retrospective versus while in office, 429 second year, 18–19 trends in, 18–19 of Reagan, Ronald, 5, 17–19, 25–26, 131, 242, 269, 329, 359, 366, 459 of Republicans in Congress, 124 of Roosevelt, Franklin, sixth quarter, 242 of Supreme Court, 346–47 of Truman, Harry S., 17–19, 131, 269, 329 Arizona access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 Congressional reapportionment and, 453 economic confidence in, 253–54 immigration law, 144–46, 228–29 jobs in, 53 party identification in, 39–40 smoking in, 289 Arkansas church attendance in, 62 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 armed forces. See military Asian Americans church attendance and, 213 employment and, well-being and, 123 ideology and, 43–44 obesity and, 50–51, 295, 351 asthma, prevalence of, 107 atheists, atheism alcohol and, 256 identification with, 171–72

ideology and, 10–11 Obama, Barack, and, 290 Republican Party and, 327 Supreme Court and, 155 attentiveness to Arizona immigration law, 144–45, 229 to BP oil spill, 176 to McChrystal, Stanley, 214 to online tracking for ads, 448 to tax agreement, 440 top ten news stories, 176 Aung San Suu Kyi, admiration of, 455 automobile(s) foreign, would consider, 87–88 mechanics, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 Toyota, confidence in, 76 automobile industry bailout for, Congress and, 310–11 “Buy American” and, 87–88 image of, 285 trends in, 285 sales personnel in, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 baby boomers definition of, 169 smoking and, 168–69 banker(s), honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 banks and banking bailout of Congress and, 310–11 Obama, Barack, and, 34 confidence in, 117, 245–46, 326 trends in, 248–49 image of, 285 trends in, 292 primary/main bank, confidence in, 326 regulation of, 129–30, 140 Congress and, 310–11 as priority, 145, 201–2, 353 Barbour, Haley, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 bars, smoking policies for, 267–68 Basic Access Index, 273, 308, 435 religion and, 376 residence location and, 163 states and, 60 trends in, 14 Beck, Glenn, 298 admiration of, 454 beer, 256–57 Benedict XVI admiration of, 454 opinion of, 108 Bernanke, Ben, 249, 295 confidence in, 128 Biden, Joe, favorability ratings, 233, 246 big business confidence in, 245–46 trends in, 252–53 image of, 44

job creation and, 410 as weakness, 64 bill paying medium of, 105 worry about, 153 bipartisanship compromise and, 394–95 Obama, Barack, and, 35, 71–72 blacks church attendance and, 63, 213 Clinton, Bill, and, 262 election of 2010 and, 196, 339 employment and, well-being and, 123 enthusiasm for election and, 196 health conditions and, 108 health insurance and, 10, 32 Obama, Barack, and, 33, 156, 261–62, 341 obesity and, 50–51, 295, 351 party identification of, 298 satisfaction of, 227–28 smoking and, 169 standard of living and, 227–28 Supreme Court and, 155 Tea Party and, 115 thought given to midterm election, 301 blood pressure, high cancer and, 111–12 obesity and, 263 prevalence of, 107 residence location and, 163–64 BMI (body mass index), 16, 49, 263, 417 commuting time and, 277 emotional health and, 315 trends in, 350 Boehner, John favorability ratings, 395 opinion of, 114, 364–65 bonds, as best investment, 139 border security. See immigrants Bork, Robert, 185–86, 237, 264 BP oil spill, 176–77, 197–98 drilling and, 278–79 emotional health and, 330–31 handlers of, approval of, 205 as most important issue, 200–201 timeline of recovery from, 199 Brewer, Jan, 144 Brown, Jerry, primaries and, 337 Brown, Scott, 21–22 support for, 55 Buddhists, opinion of, 20 budget, federal, as priority, 353 budget deficit, federal Congress and, 208–9 healthcare reform and, 107 as most important issue, 29, 58–59, 158, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 403, 447 as most important issue in 25 years, 95 Obama, Barack, and, 36, 115–16, 271, 421–22 party preferred to deal with, 189

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as priority, 420–21 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 as voting issue, 118 as weakness, 64 Bush, Barbara, admiration of, 455 Bush, George H. W., 405 admiration of, 455 approval ratings, 5, 429 versus Congress, 359 versus favorability ratings, 180 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 re-election and, 127 START Treaty and, 437 Bush, George W., 405 admiration of, 454–55 approval ratings, 5, 429 age and, 79 versus Congress, 359 expectations and, 98–99 versus favorability ratings, 180 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 gender gap, 170 midterm elections and, 269, 329, 380 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 economy and, 313 education and, 307 favorability ratings, 180, 244, 246, 393–94 image of, 61 immigration and, 224 mid-term elections and, 383 re-election and, 127 tax cuts and, 308–9, 424–25 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449 Bush, Laura, 246 admiration of, 455 business and industry confidence in, 245–46 efficiency of, versus government, 369 environment and, 121 executives exercise and, 304

464

THE GALLUP POLL

healthy eating and, 304 honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 leaders confidence in, 128 moral decline and, 162 owners exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 303–4 regulation of, 355, 369 would rather work for, 33–34 See also corporations California access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 ideology in, 42 jobs in, 53, 242–43 marijuana legalization and, 374 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 250 smoking in, 289 campaign finance Citizens United v. FEC, 23–24 limits on, 24–25 Obama, Barack, and, 36 Canada, opinion of, 66 cancer chronic conditions linked to, 111–12 depression and, 133–34 as most important issue, 406 prevalence of, 107 Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, 4 capitalism, image of, 44 capital punishment. See death penalty caregivers, well-being and, 433 cars. See under automobile Carter, Jimmy admiration of, 454–55 approval ratings, 5, 429 versus Congress, 359 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18

second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 primaries and, 337 Carter, Rosalynn, admiration of, 455 Catholics alcohol and, 256 Benedict XVI and, 108 ideology and, 10–11 Obama, Barack, and, 290 Republican Party and, 327 Supreme Court and, 155 change, as voting issue, 345–46 charitable organizations, donations to, 27 Cheney, Dick, favorability ratings, 233, 246 child care providers, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 children, extramarital, as morally acceptable, 174–75 China death penalty and, 393 opinion of, 66 as threat, 62 cholesterol, high cancer and, 111–12 commuting time and, 276–77 obesity and, 263 prevalence of, 107 Christians/Christianity National Day of Prayer and, 151 opinion of, 20 Christie, Chris, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 Christmas employment and, 426 religion and, 452–53 spending on, 370, 378, 402–3, 450–51, 456 trends in, 370, 402 Christmas Day terror incident, 12–13 church, church attendance, 62–63, 213 alcohol and, 256 confidence in, 245–46 demographics of, 213 depression and, 423 election of 2010 and, 380 evolution and, 446 health and, 451 membership in, 458 moral decline and, 162 Mormons and, 11 well-being and, 375–76 cigarettes. See smoking cities satisfaction with, Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 330–31 strengths of, 163–64 wellbeing in, 163 civil unions. See gay marriage clergy, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 clerical workers exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75

job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 climate change. See global warming Clinton, Bill admiration of, 454–55 approval ratings, 5, 429 age and, 79 versus Congress, 359 versus favorability ratings, 180–81 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 gender gap, 170 midterm elections and, 269, 329, 380 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 race and, 261–62 second year, 18 second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 as campaign advantage, 362–63 favorability ratings, 244, 246, 393 mid-term elections and, 383 re-election and, 127 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449 Clinton, Hillary Rodham admiration of, 455 favorability ratings, 246–47 Iran and, 61 would support for Democratic nomination, 337 cloning, as morally acceptable, 174–75 college costs, worry about, 153 See also education Colorado government jobs in, 266–67 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40 well-being in, 60, 247–48 commuting time, well-being and, 276–77 computer industry, image of, 285 computers crime and, 437–38 moral decline and, 162 concerts, Christmas and, 453 Congress accomplishments of, 377 approval ratings, 46–47, 101, 124, 161, 209–10, 441–42 midterm elections and, 210, 329 versus presidency, 359 trends in, 317, 398 yearly averages, 270, 442 auto industry bailout and, 310–11 confidence in, 245–46, 324–25 earmarks and, 432

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

465

healthcare reform and, 70–72, 84–85, 310–11 members of honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 image of, 208 as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 party in control of, concern with, 384–85 priorities for, 145–46, 201–2, 388, 413–14 reapportionment of seats, 453–54 religion and, 151 stimulus package and, 310–11 tax cuts and, 309, 424 taxes and, 440 Wall Street and, 310–11 as weakness, 63–64 your representative deserves re-election, 368 See also Democrats in Congress; Republicans in Congress Congressional elections campaign conduct, satisfaction with, 378–79 enthusiasm for, 52, 82–83, 111, 140, 165–66, 173, 204, 206, 221, 226, 293–94, 328–29, 387 generic ballot, 51–52, 82–83, 111, 139–41, 164–65, 206, 225–26, 293–94, 328, 339, 342–43 race and, 196 rationale for, 299–300 trends in, 165 incumbents in, 117–18, 190–91, 208, 302–3, 345–46, 367–68 indicators and, 328, 380 issues in, 118–19, 192–93, 297, 371–72 predictions for, 332–33, 367–68, 379–80 satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 Tea Party and, 221 thought given to, 299 demographics and, 301–2 political affiliation and, 299 voter rationales in, 345–46, 383 Connecticut church attendance in, 62 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 conservatives Asian Americans and, 43 candidate matchups and, 336–37 church attendance and, 213 Congress and, 47, 317, 384 economic terminology and, 44 enthusiasm for election and, 165–66 environmental movement and, 134 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 352 gun control and, 413 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 7–9, 42–43, 211–12, 443–44 immigration and, 150, 158 inflation and, 147 Kagan, Elena, and, 265

466

THE GALLUP POLL

marijuana legalization and, 375 media and, 276, 334 Obama, Barack, and, 341 patriotism and, 222 progressive label and, 229–30 race and, 298 religion and, 10–11, 298 Republican candidates and, 56, 405 Republican Party and, 326–27 security measures and, 15 spending and, 72, 167 Supreme Court and, 155, 347 swing voters and, 374 tax cuts and, 432 Tea Party and, 114, 221 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections, 299 unemployment benefits and, 432 construction workers exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 consumers confidence of, 29, 132, 286–87 environment and, 121 protection of, government and, 356–57 spending and, xiv, 21, 64, 72–73, 120, 132, 167, 294–95, 334–35, 377–78, 420, 450–51, 456 year-over-year, 120, 158–59 Coolidge, Calvin, re-election and, 337 corporations bailouts of, as contraindicated, 353 Citizens United v. FEC, 23–24 government and, 356–57 offshoring, worry about, 278 party preferred to deal with, 189 regulation of, as priority, 201–2 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 Toyota, confidence in, 76 See also business and industry corruption as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 party preferred to deal with, 297 as voting issue, 297 as weakness, 63–64 Coughlin, Joseph, 433 courts. See judges; judicial branch creationism, 445–46 credit cards, worry about, 153 crime computer/Internet, 437–38 moral decline and, 162 trends in, 390

in U.S. more than a year ago, 406 seriousness of, 407 which, if any, of these incidents have happened to you or your household in past twelve months [list], 437–38 worry about, 390–91 in your area more than a year ago, 406 seriousness of, 407 criminal justice system, confidence in, 245–46 Cuba, opinion of, 66 Dalai Lama, admiration of, 454 Daniels, Mitch, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 day care providers, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 death penalty fairness of imposition, 392 frequency of imposition, 392 versus life imprisonment, 392 as morally acceptable, 174–75 support for, 391–92 trends in, 392 decorations, Christmas and, 453 defense spending on, 65 strength of, 65 See also national security Delaware access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 ideology in, 259 jobs in, 53 Obama, Barack, and, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 well-being in, 247–48 Democratic Party ability to govern, 348–49 abortion and, 81–82, 160–61 Afghanistan and, 216, 261, 419 age and, 139 Arizona immigration law and, 144–45, 229 Asian Americans and, 43 auto industry bailout and, 310–11 banks and, 130 Boehner, John, and, 396 Bush, George W., and, 313, 393–94 business regulation and, 41, 369 campaign conduct and, 379 campaign finance decision and, 24–25 candidate matchups and, 337 candidates, would support, 337 change and, 348–49 church attendance and, 213 Clinton, Bill, and, 362 compromise and, 394–95 Congress and, 46–47, 117–18, 124, 161, 201–2, 208–9, 270–71, 305, 310–11, 317, 377, 384–85, 398, 414, 441

Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 death penalty and, 392 divided government and, 195 domestic issues and, 323 DREAM Act and, 436 early voting and, 372 economic confidence and, 77, 122, 421 economic terminology and, 44 economy and, 19–20, 313 election of 2010 and, 51–52, 82–83, 111, 140–41, 164–66, 173, 204, 206, 221, 225–26, 293–94, 303, 332–33, 339, 342–43, 345–46, 379–80, 383–84 race and, 196 rationale for, 299–300 election of 2012 and, 55 energy and, 177 enthusiasm for election and, 52, 82–83, 111, 140, 166, 173, 204, 206, 226, 293–94, 328–29, 387 entitlement reforms and, 360 environmental movement and, 134 environment and, 96–97, 177 ethics and, 348–49 evolution and, 446 executive branch and, 325 favorability ratings, 183, 323–24, 401 fear of crime and, 391 foreign affairs and, 323 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 215, 319, 323, 352, 355, 361–62, 369 government jobs and, 34 government responsibilities and, 356–57 gun control and, 412–13 has clear plan for country’s problems, 348–49 healthcare and, 372 healthcare issues and, 406 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 12, 22, 70–72, 80, 101–3, 106, 109, 126–27, 207, 310–11, 399 health insurance coverage and, 105 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 6–7, 39–40, 136, 217, 249–50 ideology and, 8–9, 196–97, 212, 444 image of, 119 immigration and, 26, 150, 158, 224–25, 251, 436 incumbents and, 368 inflation and, 147 Iraq War and, 265, 283–84, 287–88 job creation and, 318–19 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 264–65 labor and, 274 legislative branch and, 325 marijuana legalization and, 375 McChrystal, Stanley, and, 215 media and, 27–28, 276, 334 Middle East and, 69–70 moral improvement and, 163 morality and, 163, 174 most admired man and, 454–55

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

467

most admired woman and, 455 most important issue and, 201, 275 New York mosque and, 281 nuclear power and, 102 Obama, Barack, and, 13, 22, 25–26, 45–46, 99, 128, 156, 198, 205, 216, 261, 313, 341, 362, 422, 449 oil and, 178, 198, 205 optimism and, 2 Palin, Sarah, and, 365–66, 400 patriotism and, 222 Pelosi, Nancy, and, 364 personal financial situation and, 135 policy leadership and, 416 priorities and, 100, 145, 201–2, 353–54, 388, 414 progressive label and, 230 race and, 298 rationale for support for, 345 Reid, Harry, and, 396 religion and, 11, 298 represents your values, 319 satisfaction with U.S. and, 88, 129, 168 school spending cuts and, 282 security measures and, 15 Social Security and, 255 START Treaty and, 437 stimulus package and, 310–11 Supreme Court and, 347 swing voters and, 373–74 tax cuts and, 309, 425, 431–32 taxes and, 125–26, 442–43 Tea Party and, 114, 221, 389 terrorism and, 310 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections, 299 threats to country and, 188–89 understands problems Americans face in daily lives, 319–20 unemployment and, 431–32 United Nations and, 67 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449–50 voter turnout and, 343, 380 voting issues and, 118, 193, 284, 297, 371–72 Wall Street and, 310–11 well-being and, 4–5 Democrats in Congress approval ratings, 124, 305 compromise and, 394–95 confidence in, 80, 128 ethics and, 348–49 healthcare reform and, 103–4 incumbents, 117–18, 190–91, 302–3, 368 as policy leader, 416 tax cuts and, 309 terrorism and, 310 voting issues and, 297 depression BMI and, 315 cancer and, 133–34 military and, 218–19, 280 prevalence of, 107

468

THE GALLUP POLL

religion and, 423 underemployment and, 85–86 unemployment and, 192 diabetes cancer and, 112 as most important issue, 406 obesity and, 263 prevalence of, 107 discrimination party preferred to deal with, 189 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 dishonesty moral decline and, 162 as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 District of Columbia economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 239–40 party identification in, 39–40, 249–50 smoking in, 289 diversity, moral improvement and, 163 divorce, as morally acceptable, 174–75 doctor(s) advice from, approaches to, 426–27 care provided by, rated, 439 confidence in, 80 healthcare reform and, 101 honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 doctor-assisted suicide, as morally acceptable, 174–75 Dole, Bob, 405 domestic issues, government and, confidence in, 322–23 Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy, repeal of, 432 Obama, Barack, and, 37 as priority, 414 support for, 433–34 DREAM Act as priority, 414 support for, 432, 436 druggists, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 drugs abuse of, as most important issue, 406 legalization of marijuana, support for, 374–75 moral decline and, 162 Easter, mood and, 1 economic conditions BP oil spill and, 199 Bush, George W., and, 313 church attendance and, 213 confidence in, xiii, 29, 47–49, 132, 210–11, 226–27, 236, 286–87, 331–32 political affiliation and, 77, 122 standard of living and, 58 states and, 253–54 trends in, 286–87 Congress and, 208–9

consumers and, 21 getting better/worse, 4–5, 49, 286, 312, 332 healthcare reform and, 107 leadership and, 128 media and, 28 mood and, 1 moral improvement and, 163 as most important issue, 29, 58–59, 95, 157–58, 200–201, 234, 274–75, 318, 403, 447 as most important issue in 25 years, 95 Obama, Barack, and, 17, 35, 54–55, 98–99, 115–16, 271, 313, 421–22 outlook for, 19–20, 122, 210–11, 226, 236, 312, 331–32 party preferred to deal with, 297 political affiliation and, 4–5 priorities for, 420–21 as priority, 100, 353 as recession, 312 perceptions of, 320 trends in, 312 spending and, 21 stimulus package Congress and, 310–11 mood and, 1 Obama, Barack, and, 35 as priority, 388, 420–21 as strength, 63 terminology on, images of, 44 travel and, 179 as voting issue, 118, 297, 371 as weakness, 63–64 See also financial situation, personal; stock market education abortion and, 142–43 alcohol and, 256 best investment and, 140 candidate matchups and, 337 church attendance and, 213 as contraindicated, 353 employment and, well-being and, 123 environmental movement and, 134 evolution and, 446 government and, 307 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 health problems and, 141 heart attack and, 187 image of, 285 media and, 334 medical advice and, 427 as most important issue, 59, 234, 275, 318, 403, 447 Obama, Barack, and, 32–33, 36, 170, 271, 341 as priority, 353 satisfaction with, 307 school spending cuts and, 282 smoking and, 141–42 as strength, 63 Tea Party and, 115 unemployment and, 137, 185

Egypt, opinion of, 66 Eisenhower, Dwight D. admiration of, 455 approval ratings, 5 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 Eisenhower, Mamie, admiration of, 455 elderly. See seniors election of 1982, satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 election of 1986, satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 election of 1990, satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 election of 1994 Congressional approval and, 398 satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 election of 1998 campaign conduct, satisfaction with, 378–79 satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 election of 2002 campaign conduct, satisfaction with, 378–79 party favorability ratings and, 401 satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 swing voters and, 373 election of 2006 campaign conduct, satisfaction with, 378–79 Congressional approval and, 398 party favorability ratings and, 401 satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 swing voters and, 373 election of 2010 campaign conduct, satisfaction with, 378–79 early voting in, 372–73 enthusiasm for, 52, 111, 138–40, 165–66, 173, 204, 206, 221, 226, 293–94, 328–29, 387 race and, 196 generic ballot, 51–52, 82–83, 111, 139–41, 164–65, 206, 225–26, 293–94, 328, 339, 342–43 race and, 196 rationale for, 299–300 incumbents in, 117–18, 190–91, 302–3, 345–46, 367–68 indicators and, 328, 380 issues in, 118, 192–93, 297, 371–72, 383–84 newcomers in, 302–3 Obama, Barack, and, 127–28 party favorability ratings and, 401 predictions for, 332–33, 367–68, 379–80 satisfaction with U.S. and, 168, 363 swing voters and, 373–74 Tea Party and, 221 thought given to, 299 demographics and, 301–2 voter rationales in, 345–46, 383

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

469

election of 2012 candidate matchups, 335–37 generic candidate, 55–56 Obama, Barack, and, 55–56, 127–28, 367 electric and gas utilities, image of, 285 trends in, 292 Elizabeth II, queen of Great Britain, admiration of, 455–56 emotional health, 159, 273, 308, 435 BMI and, 315 commuting time and, 277 employment and, age and, 202–3 Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 330–31 military and, 218–19 religion and, 376 residence location and, 163 states and, 60 trends in, 14 unemployment and, 191–92 employer-based health insurance, 444–45 prevalence of, 31, 99, 239, 311 employment, 78–79 age and, well-being and, 202–3 government and, 356–57 health situation and, 284 part-time, as retirement income, 143–44, 341 satisfaction with pay and, 282 Tea Party and, 115 well-being and, 85–86, 123 See also jobs; underemployment; unemployment energy alternative, Obama, Barack, and, 35 conservation versus production, 116 have made changes to help protect environment, 121 jobs and, 53 as most important issue in 25 years, 95 Obama, Barack, and, 99, 271 as priority, 116, 145, 177 regulation of, as priority, 201–2 as serious, 116 See also fuel; gasoline; oil enjoyment. See happiness entrepreneurs, image of, 44 environment actions taken, 121 activism, 121 in groups, 121 BP oil spill, 176–77, 197–98 drilling and, 278–79 emotional health and, 330–31 handlers of, approval of, 205 as most important issue, 200–201 timeline of recovery from, 199 business and, 121 concerns about, 97–98 contributed money to groups, 121 government and, 121, 356–57 as most important issue, 158 25 years from now, 97 as most important issue in 25 years, 95

470

THE GALLUP POLL

movement impact of, 134 orientation toward, 134 Obama, Barack, and, 98–99, 271 outlook for, 96 party preferred to deal with, 189, 297 as priority, 100, 116, 145, 177, 353 quality of, 96–97, 100 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 as voting issue, 118, 121, 297 worry about, 96–98 See also global warming ethics as most important issue, 158 rate honesty and ethical standards of people in different fields [list], 427–28 See also morality ethnic groups. See race; specific group euthanasia, as morally acceptable, 174–75 evolution, 445–46 executive branch. See president/presidency exercise obesity and, 49–50 occupation and, 304 participation in, last week, 16, 435 education and, 141 income and, 141 religion and, 451 safe place and, 16–17 safe place for, 16–17 trends in, 15–17, 175–76 extinction, worry about, 97 extramarital affairs, as morally acceptable, 174–75 family(ies) moral decline and, 162 moral improvement and, 163 as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 family values. See morality farms, farming exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 image of, 285 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 Father’s Day, mood and, 1 financial situation, personal better or worse today, 135 getting better/worse, 135 retirement and, 138 unemployment and, 137 well-being and, 231 worry about, 153 See also income; money; spending

fishing, as ideal job, 75 Flag Day, 1 Florida Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 economic confidence in, 47 government jobs in, 266–67 party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 flu, as most important issue, 406 food access to fruits and vegetables, states and, 321 ate fruits & veggies last week, 435 access and, 321–22 education and, 141 income and, 141 obesity and, 50 religion and, 451 trends in, 24–25 ate healthy yesterday, 435 obesity and, 50 religion and, 451 trends in, 24–25 grocery industry, image of, 285 trends in, 292 healthy eating, occupation and, 304 prices, BP oil spill and, 199 safety of, regulation of, support for, 432 Ford, Gerald, 405 approval ratings, 429 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 primaries and, 337 foreign affairs/policy as contraindicated, 353 government and, confidence in, 322–23 Obama, Barack, and, 54, 115–16, 271, 421–22 as weakness, 64 forestry, as ideal job, 75 France, opinion of, 66 freedom, as strength, 63 free enterprise, image of, 44 fuel, prices, as most important issue, 234 gambling, as morally acceptable, 174–75 gasoline industry, image of, 285 trends in, 285–86, 292 prices, BP oil spill and, 199 See also energy; oil Gates, Bill, admiration of, 454 Gates, Robert, 434 gay marriage, 172 government and, 353 Mormons and, 10 See also homosexuals and homosexuality Geithner, Timothy, confidence in, 128

gender abortion and, 142–43, 160–61 alcohol and, 257 candidate matchups and, 337 church attendance and, 213 computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 death penalty and, 392 election of 2010 and, 140–41, 380 employment and, well-being and, 123 environmental movement and, 134 exercise and, 16 fear of crime and, 391 global warming and, 92 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 healthcare reform and, 12 health insurance and, 10, 32 heart attack and, 187 jobs and, 30 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 morality and, 174–75 Obama, Barack, and, 6, 33, 170–71, 341 obesity and, 50–51, 351 patriotism and, 222 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15 smoking and, 169 spending and, 72, 167 Supreme Court and, 155 Tea Party and, 114 travel plans and, 179 unemployment and, 185 voter turnout and, 302 weight and, 417 working parents, time/sleep experiences, 154 gender gap morality and, 174–75 Obama, Barack, and, 33, 170–71 geographic region alcohol and, 257 banks and, 249 candidate matchups and, 336 church attendance and, 62–63, 213 early voting and, 372–73 economic confidence in, 253 election of 2010 and, 339, 380 emotional health and, oil spill and, 330–31 employment and, well-being and, 123 exercise and, 16 fear of crime and, 391 gay marriage and, 172 government jobs and, 34, 266 gun control and, 413 health conditions and, 108 health insurance and, 10, 32 immigration and, 150, 158 inflation and, 147 job market and, 343, 430–31

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

471

jobs and, 30, 152, 305 marijuana legalization and, 375 Obama, Barack, and, 6, 341 obesity and, 263, 351 Republican Party and, 327 smoking and, 289 spending and, 72, 120, 158–59, 456 standard of living and, 231 travel plans and, 179 unemployment and, 137 well-being and, 397 See also states Georgia church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 Germany, opinion of, 66 gift giving, Christmas and, 453 Gingrich, Newt favorability ratings, 237–38, 246 opinion of, 365 would support for Republican nomination, 55, 336, 404–5 Ginsburg, Ruth Bader, 185–86, 237, 264 Giuliani, Rudy, 405 global warming causes of, 89 ideology and, 91–92 Obama, Barack, and, 35 party preferred to deal with, 189 as priority, 145, 201–2, 353 reality of, 89 scientists and, 89–90 seriousness of, 89, 91–93 as threat, 89, 121, 188 Tea Party and, 223 timeframe of, 89, 91–93 understanding of, 92–93 as voting issue, 118 worry about, 89–90 See also environment God moral decline and, 162 moral improvement and, 163 Gore, Al, 90 favorability ratings, 233, 246 government ability to solve problems, tax agreement and, 443 activity level of, 352 assistance in Haiti, 26 versus business, 369 business regulation and, 130, 369 contraindications for, 353–54 dissatisfaction with, as most important issue, 58–59, 95, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 403, 447 divided, 195 education and, 307 environment and, 121 healthcare and, as most important issue, 406 healthcare reform and, 84–85

472

THE GALLUP POLL

health insurance and, 99, 239, 407–8, 444–45 health insurance coverage and, 31–32, 311, 344–45 image of, 44, 285, 351 jobs with, 148, 305, 385, 410 market conditions in, 344 prevalence of, 266–67 moral decline and, 162 as most important issue, 29, 158 oil spill and, 176 party preferred to deal with, 189 policy leader in, 416 power of, 354–55 as voting issue, 371 priorities for, 353–54 responsibility levels of, 355–56 role of, 41, 215, 354–55 political affiliation and, 319 some functions can’t be privatized, 369 Tea Party and, 223–24 spending by, 65 as contraindicated, 353 party preferred to deal with, 297 as priority, 201–2, 353, 388 as voting issue, 297 as strength, 63 as threat, 188, 355, 361–62 Tea Party and, 223 trust in issues and, 322–23 Obama, Barack, and, 36 as weakness, 63–64 worry about, 41 would rather work for, 33–34 Graham, Billy, admiration of, 454–55 Graham, Lindsey, 145 Great Britain. See United Kingdom greed, moral decline and, 162 greenhouse effect. See global warming green products, have made changes to help protect environment, 121 Greenspan, Alan, 335 Gregory, David, 337 grocery industry, image of, 285 trends in, 292 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, 176–77, 197–98 drilling and, 278–79 emotional health and, 330–31 handlers of, approval of, 205 as most important issue, 200–201 timeline of recovery from, 199 gun control handgun ban, 413 laws should be more/less strict, 412–13 Gutierrez, Luis, 189 Haiti assistance to, 26 donations to, 27 earthquake and immigration, 26–27 Obama, Barack, and, 36

Halloween, employment and, 426 happiness, 1–2 BMI and, 315 underemployment and, 86 unemployment and, 191–92 Hawaii access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 economic confidence in, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 239–40 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 Hayes, Steven J., 391 health, well-being, 159, 194, 273, 308, 397, 435 cancer and, 111–12, 133–34 caregivers and, 433 commuting time and, 276–77 conditions, prevalence of, 107–8 education and, 141 employment and, 123 age and, 202–3 heart attack incidence, 186–87 hiring and, 284 income and, 141 medical advice, approaches to, 426–27 obesity and, 50, 262–63 problems, prevalence of, 141 religion and, 375–76, 451 residence location and, 163–64 states and, 60 trends in, 14, 24–25 See also Well-Being Index healthcare access to, 405–6 reform and, 84 costs, 405–6 as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 party preferred to deal with, 189 reform and, 84, 107, 109 satisfaction with, 409 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 treatment delay and, 412 worry about, 153 coverage, 409 as priority, 353 government and, 356–57 industry, image of, 285 lack of, as weakness, 63–64 as major problem, 409 as most important issue, 29, 58–59, 95, 158, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 403, 447 most important issue in, 405–6 as most important issue in 25 years, 95

Obama, Barack, and, 54, 271 party preferred to deal with, 297 as priority, 353 providers, rated, 438–39 quality of, 409 reform and, 107 satisfaction with, 411 in state of crisis, 409 as strength, 63 as voting issue, 118, 297, 371 healthcare reform, 386 benefits for country versus self, 107 confidence in leaders on, 80, 103–4 Congress and, 124, 208–9, 310–11 as contraindicated, 353 costs of, 106–7 future modifications to, 126–27 goes too far/not far enough, 399 media and, 28 Obama, Barack, and, 18, 36, 115–16 opposition to, 207 reasons for, 84 passage of, 103, 106, 109 as priority, 22 repeal of, 399 as priority, 201–2, 388 support for, 11–12, 21–22, 70–72, 84–85, 103, 106, 109, 126–27 demographics of, 104, 106 reasons for, 84 Tea Party and, 114–15 health insurance coverage, 9–10, 31, 68–69, 99–100, 238–39, 345, 386, 444–45 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 reform and, 84, 104, 106 by type, 68–69, 344–45 employer-provided, 31, 444–45 satisfaction with, 292–93 government responsibility for, 407–8 government-sponsored plan, 31–32 See also uninsured health insurance companies care provided by, rated, 439 confidence in, 80 healthcare reform and, 101 responsibility of, 407–8 satisfaction with, 411 health maintenance organizations, confidence in, 245–46 trends in, 269–70 Healthy Behavior Index, 308, 435 religion and, 451 states and, 60 heart attack cancer and, 112 incidence of, 186–87 as most important issue, 406 obesity and, 263 prevalence of, 107 high blood pressure cancer and, 111–12 obesity and, 263

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

473

prevalence of, 107 residence location and, 163–64 hiring activity. See jobs Hispanics church attendance and, 213 DREAM Act and, 436 election of 2010 and, 196, 339 employment and, well-being and, 123 enthusiasm for election and, 196 health insurance and, 10, 32 immigration reform and, 150 Obama, Barack, and, 189–90, 261, 341 obesity and, 50–51, 295, 351 party identification of, 298 smoking and, 169 Supreme Court and, 155 holidays, mood and, 1 home equity, as retirement income, 143–44, 341 homosexuals and homosexuality Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy, repeal of, 432 Obama, Barack, and, 37 as priority, 414 support for, 433–34 gay marriage, 172 moral decline and, 162 as morally acceptable, 174–75 Mormons and, 10 honesty. See dishonesty; ethics hospitals care provided by, rated, 439 confidence in, 80 healthcare reform and, 101–2 as most important issue, 234, 275 See also healthcare hotels, smoking policies for, 267–68 House of Representatives. See Congress housing, worry about, 153 Huckabee, Mike favorability ratings, 237–38, 246 would support for Republican nomination, 55–56, 336, 404–5 humans, cloning, as morally acceptable, 174–75 hypertension cancer and, 111–12 obesity and, 263 prevalence of, 107 residence location and, 163–64 Idaho access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 249–50 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 identity theft, 437–38

474

THE GALLUP POLL

ideology Asian Americans and, 43–44 candidate matchups and, 336–37 church attendance and, 213 Congress and, 47, 317, 384 Democratic Party and, 196–97, 212 economic terminology and, 44 election of 2010 and, 345–46 enthusiasm for election and, 165–66 environmental movement and, 134 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 352 gun control and, 413 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 7–9, 42–43, 211–12, 443 trends in, 444 immigration and, 150, 158 inflation and, 147 Kagan, Elena, and, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 media and, 276, 334 Obama, Barack, and, 341 party identification and, 43, 259 patriotism and, 222 progressive label and, 229–30 race and, 298 religion and, 10–11, 298 Republican candidates and, 56, 405 Republican Party and, 326–27 security measures and, 15 spending and, 72, 167 states and, 259 Supreme Court and, 155, 347 swing voters and, 374 tax cuts and, 432 Tea Party and, 114 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections and, 299 trends in, 8–9 unemployment benefits and, 432 See also political affiliation illegal immigration. See immigrants, immigration Illinois Congressional reapportionment and, 453 government jobs in, 266–67 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 party identification in, 39–40, 250 immigrants, immigration Haitian, support for, 26–27 Obama, Barack, and, 37, 189, 271 Arizona law, 144–46, 228–29 reform as priority, 145 elements of, 149–50 border control, importance of, 149–50 plan for, importance of, 149–50 reform, priorities for, 150 sympathy toward, 150

worry about, 150 reform, worry about, 150 as most important issue, 157–58, 200–201, 234, 274–75, 318, 403, 447 moral decline and, 162 as threat, 188, 225 party preferred to deal with, 189, 297 Congress and, 208–9 as threat, Tea Party and, 223 as priority, 224–25, 353, 414 levels of, 251 as good/bad thing for country, 251 as voting issue, 297, 371 as contraindicated, 353 DREAM Act support for, 432, 436 as priority, 414 income alcohol and, 256 best investment and, 140 Christmas spending and, 456 economy and, 19, 211 election of 2010 and, 380 employment and, well-being and, 123 exercise and, 16 fear of crime and, 391 foreign cars and, 87 healthcare reform and, 12, 101–2, 104, 106 healthcare satisfaction and, 411 health conditions and, 108 health insurance and, 10, 32, 68 health problems and, 141 ideal job and, 75 inequality, government and, 356–57 inflation and, 147 jobs and, 30 job worries and, 278 media and, 334 Obama, Barack, and, 170–71, 341 obesity and, 351 online tracking for ads and, 448 optimism and, 3 personal financial situation and, 135 smoking and, 141–42 spending and, 21, 64, 72, 120, 167, 456 year-over-year, 158–59 standard of living and, 230–31, 390 tax cuts and, 309, 424–25 taxes and, 125–26 Tea Party and, 114 unemployment and, 137, 185 See also financial situation, personal; money; wages income tax expect to increase, 125–26 opinion of, 125 See also tax cuts; taxes Independence Day, mood and, 1 independents abortion and, 81–82, 160–61

Afghanistan and, 216, 261, 419 Arizona immigration law and, 144–45, 229 auto industry bailout and, 310–11 banks and, 130 Boehner, John, and, 396 Bush, George W., and, 313, 393–94 business regulation and, 369 campaign conduct and, 379 campaign finance decision and, 24–25 church attendance and, 213 Clinton, Bill, and, 362 compromise and, 394–95 Congress and, 46–47, 124, 161, 201–2, 270–71, 305, 310, 317, 377, 384–85, 398, 414, 441 Democratic Party and, 212, 349 divided government and, 195 domestic issues and, 323 DREAM Act and, 436 early voting and, 372 economic confidence and, 77, 122, 421 economy and, 19–20, 313 election of 2010 and, 51–52, 82–83, 141, 166, 303, 332–33 election of 2012 and, 55 energy and, 177 enthusiasm for election and, 82–83, 166, 206 entitlement reforms and, 360 environmental movement and, 134 environment and, 96–97, 177 evolution and, 446 executive branch and, 325 foreign affairs and, 323 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 215, 323, 352, 355, 361–62, 369 gun control and, 413 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 12, 22, 80, 103–4, 106, 109, 126–27, 207, 310–11, 399 health insurance coverage and, 105 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 7, 136, 217 ideology and, 8–9, 196–97, 212, 444 image of parties and, 119 immigration and, 26, 150, 158, 225, 251, 436 inflation and, 147 Iraq War and, 265, 287–88 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 265 labor and, 274 legislative branch and, 325 marijuana legalization and, 375 McChrystal, Stanley, and, 215 media and, 27–28, 276, 334 Middle East and, 69–70 morality and, 163, 174 most admired man and, 454–55 most admired woman and, 455 most important issue and, 201, 275 New York mosque and, 281 nuclear power and, 102

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

475

Obama, Barack, and, 13, 22, 99, 128, 156, 198, 216, 261, 313, 341, 362, 422, 449 oil and, 178, 198 optimism and, 2 Palin, Sarah, and, 365–66, 400 patriotism and, 222 Pelosi, Nancy, and, 364 personal financial situation and, 135 policy leadership and, 416 priorities and, 100, 145, 201–2, 353–54, 388, 414 progressive label and, 230 race and, 298 Reid, Harry, and, 396 religion and, 11, 298 satisfaction with U.S. and, 88, 129 security measures and, 15 Social Security and, 255 START Treaty and, 437 stimulus package and, 310–11 Supreme Court and, 347 swing voters and, 373–74 tax cuts and, 309, 425, 431–32 taxes and, 125–26, 442–43 Tea Party and, 114, 221 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections, 299 threats to country and, 188 unemployment and, 431–32 United Nations and, 67 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449–50 voter turnout and, 343 voting issues and, 118, 193, 284, 371–72 Wall Street and, 310–11 well-being and, 4–5 India opinion of, 66 as threat, 62 Indiana economic confidence in, 47 government jobs in, 266–67 party identification in, 39–40 smoking in, 289 industry. See business and industry inflation, worry about, 147 influenza, as most important issue, 406 infrastructure government and, 356–57 as priority, 353 inheritance, expectations of, 143–44 installation personnel exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304

476

THE GALLUP POLL

insurance plans, as retirement income, 143–44, 341 interest rates, worry about, 147 international issues. See foreign affairs/policy Internet crime and, 437–38 industry, image of, 285 moral decline and, 162 online tracking for ads, 448 investments, which type is best, 139–40 investors, optimism of, 3–4 Iowa Congressional reapportionment and, 453 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 242–43 well-being in, 60 Iran death penalty and, 393 as threat, 61–62 Iraq condition after war, 283–84, 287–88 death penalty and, 393 Obama, Barack, and, 271 opinion of, 66 Iraq War as contraindicated, 353 favor renewing combat operations, 287 history will judge as failure, 283–84 how things are going, 265 media and, 28 as mistake, 265, 284 as most important issue, 158, 234 Obama, Barack, and, 36 party preferred to deal with, 189 terrorism and, 287 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 withdrawal from, 284 as priority, 353 Islam. See Muslims Israel opinion of, 66, 69–70 as threat, 62 See also Middle East issues, most important, 29, 58–59, 95, 157–58, 200–201, 234, 274–75, 318, 403–4, 447 economy and, 318, 447 employment as, 318, 403–4 terrorism as, 309–10 unemployment and, 447 25 years from now, 95, 97 Jackson, Michael, 1–2 Japan, opinion of, 66 Jews ideology and, 10–11 Obama, Barack, and, 290 opinion of, 20

Jindal, Bobby favorability ratings, 237–38, 246 support for, 55 Job Creation Index, xiii–xiv, 29, 53–54, 132, 148, 151–52, 184, 200, 226, 305, 343, 385, 410, 430–31 employer type and, 344 states and, 242–43 jobs benefits, worry about, 278 companies are hiring/letting go, 53–54, 152, 184, 200, 305, 343, 385, 410, 430–31 well-being and, 123 could find job just as good if laid off, 137 good or bad time to find a quality job, 30–31, 320 government and, 356–57, 410 health situation and, 284 as ideal, 75 as most important issue, 29, 58–59, 95, 157–58, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 403–4, 447 Obama, Barack, and, 35 offshoring, worry about, 278 outlook, 137, 149, 184, 243 party preferred to deal with, 297 as priority, 201–2, 353 satisfaction with, 91, 292 occupation and, 304 states by, 60 trends in, 14, 292–93 working parents and, 154 states and, 242–43 underemployment, 78–79 as voting issue, 297 well-being and, 303–4 worry about, 277–78 would rather work for government/business, 33–34 See also employment; unemployment John Paul II, pope admiration of, 455 opinion of, 108–9 Johnson, Gary, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 Johnson, Lyndon B. approval ratings, 429 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 second year, 18 re-election and, 337 Jolie, Angelina, admiration of, 455 Judaism. See Jews judges, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 judicial branch confidence in, 324–25 See also Supreme Court Kagan, Elena, 156, 229 favor confirmation of, 185–86, 237, 264–65 initial reactions to, 157

Kahneman, Daniel, 277 Kansas jobs in, 53 party identification in, 39–40, 250 well-being in, 60 Kennedy, Edward, 307, 337 Kennedy, Jacqueline, admiration of, 455 Kennedy, John F. admiration of, 455 approval ratings, 5, 428–29 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 Kentucky economic confidence in, 253–54 Obama, Barack, and, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 Kerry, John, 145 Krueger, Alan, 277 labor (organized; unions) approval ratings, trends in, 273–74 confidence in, 128, 245–46 influence of, appropriate level of, 274 outlook for, 274 lakes, pollution of, worry about, 97–98 large metro areas strengths of, 163–64 wellbeing in, 163 Latinos/as. See Hispanics Latter-Day Saints. See Mormons law enforcement. See police and police officers lawyer(s) honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 image of, 285 leadership as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 policy and, 416 as strength, 63 as weakness, 63–64 legislative branch. See Congress Lewis, Teresa, 393 liberals Asian Americans and, 43 candidate matchups and, 336–37 church attendance and, 213 Congress and, 47, 317, 384 economic terminology and, 44

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

477

enthusiasm for election and, 165–66 environmental movement and, 134 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 352 gun control and, 412–13 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 7–9, 42–43, 211–12, 443–44 immigration and, 150, 158 inflation and, 147 Kagan, Elena, and, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 media and, 276, 334 Obama, Barack, and, 341 patriotism and, 222 progressive label and, 229–30 race and, 298 religion and, 10–11, 298 Republican candidates and, 56, 405 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15 spending and, 72, 167 Supreme Court and, 155, 347 swing voters and, 374 tax cuts and, 432 Tea Party and, 114, 221 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections, 299 unemployment benefits and, 432 Lieberman, Joe, 145 Life Evaluation Index, 56–57, 90–91, 159, 193–94, 272–73, 308, 358, 435 religion and, 376 residence location and, 163 states and, 60 trends in, 14 light bulbs, energy-saving, have made changes to help protect environment, 121 liquor, 256–57 lobbyists honesty and ethical standards of, 427 Obama, Barack, and, 36 local government jobs with, 148, 305, 385, 410 market conditions in, 344 prevalence of, 266–67 officeholders, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 Louisiana church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60

478

THE GALLUP POLL

Maine access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 economic confidence in, 253–54 jobs in, 242–43 obesity in, 262–63 managers exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 Mandela, Nelson, admiration of, 454 manufacturing workers exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 marijuana, legalization of, support for, 374–75 marital status church attendance and, 213 election of 2010 and, 140–41, 380 Obama, Barack, and, 341 spending and, 72, 167 marriage affairs outside of, as morally acceptable, 174–75 polygamy, as morally acceptable, 174–75 See also divorce; gay marriage Maryland access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 party identification in, 39–40, 250 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 247–48 Massachusetts access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453 economic confidence in, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 247–48 McCain, John, support for, 55 McChrystal, Stanley, 214–16, 232

McConnell, Mitch, opinion of, 114 McDonnell, Bob, support for, 55 McVeigh, Timothy, 393 media confidence in, 275–76 demographics of, 276 trends in, 333–34 economic conditions and, 28 ideology and, 334 moral decline and, 162 Obama, Barack, and, 27–28 Tea Party and, 223 watchdog role, 27–28 See also specific medium Medicaid healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 104, 106 prevalence of, 31–32, 68–69, 99, 239, 311, 344, 445 satisfaction with, 411 medical care advice, approaches to, 426–27 finding cures for diseases, as most important issue, 406 medical system confidence in, 245–46 trends in, 269 See also healthcare Medicare cuts in doctor payments, 432 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 104, 106 prevalence of, 31–32, 68–69, 99, 239, 311, 344, 445 reform of, approaches to, 360, 421 satisfaction with, 411 medium metro areas, wellbeing in, 163 men abortion and, 142–43, 160–61 admiration of, 454–55 alcohol and, 257 candidate matchups and, 337 church attendance and, 213 computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 death penalty and, 392 election of 2010 and, 140–41, 380 employment and, well-being and, 123 environmental movement and, 134 exercise and, 16 fear of crime and, 391 global warming and, 92 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 healthcare reform and, 12 health insurance and, 10, 32 heart attack and, 187 jobs and, 30 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 morality and, 174–75 Obama, Barack, and, 6, 33, 170–71, 341

obesity and, 50–51, 351 patriotism and, 222 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15 smoking and, 169 spending and, 72, 167 Tea Party and, 114 travel plans and, 179 unemployment and, 185 voter turnout and, 302 weight and, 417 working parents, time/sleep experiences, 154 Menendez, Robert, 189 metro areas satisfaction with, Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 330–31 strengths of, 163–64 wellbeing in, 163 Mexico, opinion of, 66–67 Michigan Congressional reapportionment and, 453 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53, 242–43 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 well-being in, 247–48 Middle East Obama, Barack, and, 115–16 opinion of, 69–70 outlook for, 70 as threat, 62 See also Iraq War Miers, Harriet, 157, 185–86, 237, 264 military active-duty pain and, 280 well-being and, 218–19 confidence in, 245–46 deployed, well-being and, 235 future of, 73–74 health insurance coverage, 31–32 prevalence of, 68–69, 99, 239, 311, 344, 445 homosexuals and, 37, 414, 432–34 jobs with, 266 as number one power, 73–74 officers, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 spending on, 65 as strength, 63 as weakness, 63–64 Minnesota economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53 obesity in, 263 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 minorities, racial. See Asian Americans; blacks; Hispanics; nonwhites; race

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

479

Mississippi church attendance in, 62 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40 well-being in, 60, 247–48 Missouri Congressional reapportionment and, 453 government jobs in, 266–67 Obama, Barack, and, 240 party identification in, 39–40 smoking in, 289 moderates Asian Americans and, 43 candidate matchups and, 336–37 church attendance and, 213 Congress and, 47, 317, 384 economic terminology and, 44 enthusiasm for election and, 165–66 environmental movement and, 134 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 352 gun control and, 413 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 7–9, 42–43, 211–12, 443–44 immigration and, 150, 158 inflation and, 147 Kagan, Elena, and, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 media and, 276, 334 Obama, Barack, and, 341 patriotism and, 222 progressive label and, 229–30 race and, 298 religion and, 10–11, 298 Republican candidates and, 56, 405 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15 spending and, 72, 167 swing voters and, 374 tax cuts and, 432 Tea Party and, 114, 221 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections, 299 unemployment benefits and, 432 money lack of, as most important issue, 59, 95, 158, 200–201, 234, 318, 403 See also financial situation, personal; income; wages Montana access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60

480

THE GALLUP POLL

morality abortion and, 160–61 acceptability of various issues [list], 174–75 getting better, 162 in what way, 163 getting worse, 162 in what way, 162 government and, 356–57 healthcare reform and, 84 as most important issue, 158, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 447 state of, 162 as strength, 63 Tea Party and, 223–24 as weakness, 64 See also ethics Mormons church attendance and, 63 ideology and, 10–11 Obama, Barack, and, 290 smoking and, 289 in Utah versus elsewhere, views of, 11 mosques New York, 353 Obama and, 281 See also church church attendance motels, smoking policies for, 267–68 Mother’s Day, mood and, 1 movies, industry, overall view of, 285 Muslims ideology and, 10–11 New York mosque, 281, 353 Obama, Barack, and, 281, 290 opinion of, 20 mutual funds. See stock market National Day of Prayer, 150–51 national pride, 222 national security as most important issue, 59, 158 as weakness, 63–64 natural disaster response/relief, as most important issue, 200–201, 234, 275 Nebraska economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 259 jobs in, 53 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 well-being in, 247–48 negative campaigning, dissatisfaction with, 379 Nevada church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53, 242–43 obesity in, 263

party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 well-being in, 247–48 New Hampshire church attendance in, 62 economic confidence in, 253–54 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 240 obesity in, 263 party identification in, 39–40, 250 New Jersey access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 Congressional reapportionment and, 453 ideology in, 42 jobs in, 53, 242–43 smoking in, 289 New Mexico government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53 obesity in, 262–63 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 newspapers confidence in, 245–46, 275–76 demographics of, 276 reporters, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 See also media New Year’s Day, mood and, 1 New York Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 party identification in, 39–40, 250 Nixon, Pat, admiration of, 455 Nixon, Richard, 405 admiration of, 455 approval ratings, 5, 429 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329, 342 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 No Child Left Behind Act, 36, 307 nonreligious persons. See atheists nonwhites computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 death penalty and, 392 DREAM Act and, 436 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 healthcare reform and, 12 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15 unemployment and, 185 See also Asian Americans; blacks; Hispanics

North Carolina church attendance in, 62 government jobs in, 266–67 party identification in, 39–40 North Dakota access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53, 242–43 party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 well-being in, 60, 247–48 North Korea opinion of, 66 as threat, 62 nuclear power Obama, Barack, and, 35 START treaty as priority, 414 support for, 432, 436–37 support for, 102 nurses care provided by, rated, 439 honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 nursing homes care provided by, rated, 439 operators, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 Obama, Barack admiration of, 454–55 Afghanistan and, 216, 260–61, 272, 418–19, 422 approval ratings, 5–6, 45, 100–101, 156, 205, 261–62, 341, 458–59 Afghanistan and, 216, 260–61 age and, 79 versus Congress, 359 demographics of, 341 education and, 32–33 expectations and, 98–99 versus favorability ratings, 180 fifth quarter, 130–31 first year, 17–18 gender gap and, 170–71 healthcare reform and, 115–16 issues and, 271–72, 421–22 midterm elections and, 380 oil spill and, 205 partisan gap in, 25–26, 80 party identification and, 45–46 quarterly averages, 17 race and, 189 re-election chances and, 55 religion and, 290–91 second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366–67 sixth quarter, 242 states and, 239–40 trends in, 317 bipartisanship and, 442 business regulation and, 41

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

481

as campaign advantage, 362–63 compromise and, 394–95 confidence in, 80, 128 Congress and, 208–9 economy and, 54–55, 77, 271–72, 313 education and, 32–33 election of 2010 and, 383 election of 2012 and, 55–56, 127–28, 367 expectations of, 98–99 favorability ratings, 180, 244, 246, 367 federal budget deficit and, 271–72 healthcare reform and, 22, 70–72, 80, 84–85, 103–4, 115–16, 207, 344 image of, 61 immigration and, 224, 228, 251 Iraq War and, 272 McChrystal, Stanley, and, 214–15 Middle East and, 70 moral improvement and, 163 nuclear power and, 102 oil spill and, 176, 197–98, 205, 279 Petraeus, David, and, 232 as policy leader, 416 race and, 261–62 religion and, 150 State of the Union address, 33–37, 189 as strength of nation, 63 tax cuts and, 309 taxes and, 440, 442–43 Tea Party and, 221 terrorism and, 13, 271–72 United Nations and, 323 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449 would support for Democratic nomination, 337 Obama, Michelle, 264 admiration of, 455 favorability ratings, 246 obesity, 49–50 age and, 295 commuting time and, 277 demographics of, 50–51, 351 emotional health and, 315 exercise and, 16 as most important issue, 406 occupation and, 304 prevalence of, 262–63, 417 race and, 295 residence location and, 163–64 trends in, 263, 350 See also weight occupations exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 honesty and ethical standards in, 427–28 job satisfaction and, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths in, 304 well-being and, 303–4

482

THE GALLUP POLL

offshore drilling BP spill and, 178 moratorium on, as contraindicated, 353 Ohio Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 oil favor offshore drilling, 178 industry, image of, 285 trends in, 285–86, 292 Obama, Barack, and, 35 prices, as most important issue, 234 spill, 176–77, 197–98 drilling and, 278–79 emotional health and, 330–31 handlers of, approval of, 205 as most important issue, 200–201 timeline of recovery from, 199 See also energy; fuel; gasoline Oklahoma government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60 O’Neill, Tip, 193 optimism Obama, Barack, and, 34 trends in, 29 for U.S., 2–3 Oregon church attendance in, 62 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53 ozone layer, worry about, 97 pain, physical cancer and, 133 commuting time and, 276–77 military and, 280 obesity and, 263 Pakistan opinion of, 66 as threat, 62 Palestinian Authority, opinion of, 66 Palestinians opinion of, 69–70 as threat, 62 Palin, Sarah, 298 admiration of, 455 as campaign advantage, 365–66 favorability ratings, 237–38, 246, 400

would support for Republican nomination, 55–56, 336, 404–5 parents moral decline and, 162 moral improvement and, 163 school spending cuts and, 282 working, time/sleep experiences, 154 parties, Christmas and, 453 partisan gap abortion and, 81–82 enthusiasm for election and, 204 healthcare reform and, 80 Obama, Barack, and, 156 party identification, 39–40, 136, 217, 249–50 Asian Americans and, 43 ideology and, 259 trends in, 39–40, 250 See also political affiliation patriotism, 222 Paul, Ron, would support for Republican nomination, 55, 336, 404–5 Pawlenty, Tim, would support for Republican nomination, 55, 336, 404–5 Pelosi, Nancy opinion of, 113, 364–65 Tea Party and, 221 Pence, Mike, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 Pennsylvania access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 Congressional reapportionment and, 453 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 242–43 pension plan, as retirement income, 143–44, 341 Petraeus, David, 216 favorability ratings, 246 opinion of, 232 pharmaceutical industry care provided by, rated, 439 confidence in, 80 healthcare reform and, 101–2 image of, 285 trends in, 292 pharmacists, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 physical health. See health plant species, extinction of, worry about, 97 plays, Christmas and, 453 Plouffe, David, 337 police and police officers confidence in, 245–46 honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 political affiliation, 6–7 abortion and, 81–82, 160–61 Afghanistan and, 216, 261, 419 Arizona immigration law and, 144–45, 229 auto industry bailout and, 310–11 banks and, 130 Boehner, John, and, 396 Bush, George W., and, 313, 393–94

business regulation and, 41, 369 campaign conduct and, 379 campaign finance decision and, 24–25 compromise and, 394–95 Congress and, 46–47, 124, 161, 201–2, 208–9, 270–71, 305, 310, 317, 377, 384–85, 398, 414, 441 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 death penalty and, 392 Democratic Party and, 349 divided government and, 195 domestic issues and, 323 DREAM Act and, 436 early voting and, 372 economic confidence and, 77, 122, 421 economic terminology and, 44 economy and, 19–20, 313 election of 2010 and, 51–52, 82–83, 140–41, 303, 332–33, 345–46 election of 2012 and, 55 energy and, 177 enthusiasm for election and, 52, 82–83, 166 entitlement reforms and, 360 environmental movement and, 134 environment and, 96–97, 177 evolution and, 446 executive branch and, 325 fear of crime and, 391 foreign affairs and, 323 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 319, 323, 352, 355, 361–62, 369 government jobs and, 34 government responsibilities and, 356–57 gun control and, 412–13 healthcare issues and, 406 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 12, 22, 80, 101–3, 106, 109, 126–27, 207, 310–11, 399 homosexuals in military and, 434 ideology and, 43, 197, 444 image of parties and, 119 immigration and, 26, 150, 158, 251, 436 inflation and, 147 Iraq War and, 265, 283–84, 287–88 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 265 labor and, 274 legislative branch and, 325 marijuana legalization and, 375 McChrystal, Stanley, and, 215 media and, 27–28, 276 Middle East and, 69–70 morality and, 163, 174 most admired man and, 454–55 most admired woman and, 455 most important issue and, 201, 275 New York mosque and, 281 nuclear power and, 102 Obama, Barack, and, 13, 22, 45–46, 99, 128, 156, 198, 205, 216, 261, 313, 341, 422, 449

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

483

oil and, 178, 198, 205 opposition party support trends, 299–300 optimism and, 2 Palin, Sarah, and, 365–66, 400 patriotism and, 222 Pelosi, Nancy, and, 364 personal financial situation and, 135 policy leadership and, 416 priorities and, 100, 145, 201–2, 353–54, 414 progressive label and, 230 quarterly averages, 7 Reid, Harry, and, 396 religion and, 11 satisfaction with U.S. and, 88, 129 school spending cuts and, 282 security measures and, 15 Social Security and, 255 START Treaty and, 437 stimulus package and, 310–11 Supreme Court and, 347 swing voters and, 373–74 tax cuts and, 309, 425, 431–32 taxes and, 125–26, 442–43 Tea Party and, 114 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections and, 299 threats to country and, 188 understanding and, 320 unemployment and, 431–32 United Nations and, 67 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449–50 voter turnout and, 343 voting issues and, 118, 193, 371–72 Wall Street and, 310–11 well-being and, 4–5 See also party identification; specific party politicians confidence in, 357–58 as most important issue, 29, 158, 234, 275 should stick to beliefs/compromise, 394–95 pollution as most important issue, 158 worry about, 97 See also environment polygamy, as morally acceptable, 174–75 pornography, moral decline and, 162 Postal Service as employer, 266 reducing services, 104–5 poverty, healthcare reform and, 84, 101 Powell, Colin favorability ratings, 393 START Treaty and, 437 prayer, effectiveness of, 151 president/presidency admiration of, 454–55 approval ratings, 428–29 versus Congress, 359 midterm elections and, 268–69, 328–29, 380

484

THE GALLUP POLL

retrospective versus while in office, 429 trends in, 18–19 confidence in, 245–46, 324–25 influence on economy, 19–20 presidential candidates Republican field, 55–56, 237–38 See also specific candidate primary process, Republican candidates, 55–56 prison, life imprisonment, versus death penalty, 392 problem, most important. See issues, most important production. See manufacturing workers professionals exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 progressives ideology and, 230 term, 229–30 prosperity. See economic conditions Protestants, Protestantism alcohol and, 256 ideology and, 10–11 Obama, Barack, and, 290 Republican Party and, 327 Supreme Court and, 155 public option, in healthcare reform, 109 public schools confidence in, 245–46 spending cuts and, 281–82 See also education publishing industry, image of, 285 quality of life. See Life Evaluation Index race church attendance and, 63, 213 computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 death penalty and, 392 DREAM Act and, 436 election of 2010 and, 196, 339, 380 employment and, well-being and, 123 enthusiasm for election and, 196 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 healthcare reform and, 12 health conditions and, 108 health insurance and, 10, 32 Obama, Barack, and, 156, 189–90, 261–62, 271, 341 obesity and, 50–51, 295, 351 party identification and, 298 Republican Party and, 327 satisfaction and, 227–28 security measures and, 15 smoking and, 169

standard of living and, 227–28 Supreme Court and, 155 Tea Party and, 115 unemployment and, 185 voter turnout and, 301–2 racism decrease in, 163 See also discrimination radio industry, image of, 285 See also media rain forests, loss of, worry about, 97 Reagan, Nancy, admiration of, 455 Reagan, Ronald, 405 admiration of, 455 approval ratings, 5, 428–29 versus Congress, 359 fifth quarter, 131 fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19 first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329 partisan gap in, 25–26 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 second year close, 459 seventh quarter, 366 sixth quarter, 242 and government spending, 65 primaries and, 337 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449 real estate as good long-term investment, 139 industry, image of, 285 trends in, 291–92 recession, 312 perceptions of, 320 trends in, 312 recycling, 121 region. See geographic region regulation as contraindicated, 353 as priority, 353 Reid, Harry, 145 favorability ratings, 396 opinion of, 113–14 religion alcohol and, 256 can answer today’s problems, 171 candidate matchups and, 336 Christmas and, 452–53 confidence in, 245–46 creationism and, 445–46 depression and, 423 gay marriage and, 172 health and, 451 identification with, 171–72 ideology and, 10–11 importance of, 458

influence of, 457–58 moral decline and, 162 moral improvement and, 163 as most important issue, 158, 234, 275 National Day of Prayer, 150–51 Obama, Barack, and, 290–91 party identification and, 298 prejudice about, 20 as strength, 63 Supreme Court and, 155 as weakness, 64 well-being and, 375–76 rent as retirement income, 143–44, 341 worry about, 153 Republican Party ability to govern, 348 abortion and, 81–82, 160–61 Afghanistan and, 216, 261, 419 age and, 139 Arizona immigration law and, 144–45, 229 Asian Americans and, 43 auto industry bailout and, 310–11 banks and, 130 Boehner, John, and, 396 Bush, George W., and, 313, 393–94 business regulation and, 40–42, 369 campaign conduct and, 379 campaign finance decision and, 24–25 candidates favorability ratings, 237–38 would support, 335–36, 404–5 change and, 348 church attendance and, 213 Clinton, Bill, and, 362 composition of, 326–27 compromise and, 394–95 Congress and, 46–47, 117–18, 124, 161, 201–2, 208–9, 270–71, 305, 310–11, 317, 377, 384–85, 398, 414, 441 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 death penalty and, 392 Democratic Party and, 212, 349 divided government and, 195 domestic issues and, 323 DREAM Act and, 436 early voting and, 372 economic confidence and, 77, 122, 421 economic terminology and, 44 economy and, 19–20, 313, 318–19 election of 2010 and, 51–52, 82–83, 111, 140–41, 164–66, 173, 204, 206, 221, 225–26, 293–94, 303, 332–33, 339, 342–43, 345–46, 379–80, 383–84 race and, 196 rationale for, 299–300 election of 2012 and, 55–56 energy and, 177 enthusiasm for election and, 52, 82–83, 111, 166, 173, 204, 206, 221, 226, 293–94, 328–29, 387

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

485

entitlement reforms and, 360 environmental movement and, 134 environment and, 96–97, 177 ethics and, 348 evolution and, 446 executive branch and, 325 favorability ratings, 183, 323–24, 401 fear of crime and, 391 foreign affairs and, 323 gay marriage and, 172 global warming and, 91–92 government and, 215, 319, 323, 352, 355, 361–62, 369, 372 government jobs and, 34 government responsibilities and, 356–57 gun control and, 413 has clear plan for country’s problems, 348 healthcare issues and, 406 healthcare provider ratings and, 439 healthcare reform and, 12, 22, 70–72, 80, 101–3, 106, 109, 126–27, 207, 310–11, 386, 399 health insurance coverage and, 105 homosexuals in military and, 434 identification with, 6–7, 39–40, 136, 217, 249–50 ideology and, 8–9, 196–97, 212, 314, 326–27, 444 image of, 119 immigration and, 26, 150, 158, 224–25, 251, 436 incumbents and, 368 inflation and, 147 Iraq War and, 265, 283–84, 287–88 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 265 labor and, 274 legislative branch and, 325 marijuana legalization and, 375 McChrystal, Stanley, and, 215 media and, 27–28, 276, 334 Middle East and, 69–70 morality and, 163, 174 as more conservative, 314 most admired man and, 454–55 most admired woman and, 455 most important issue and, 201, 275 New York mosque and, 281 nuclear power and, 102 Obama, Barack, and, 13, 22, 25–26, 45–46, 99, 128, 156, 198, 205, 216, 261, 313, 341, 362, 422, 449 oil and, 178, 198, 205 optimism and, 2 Palin, Sarah, and, 365–66, 400 patriotism and, 222 Pelosi, Nancy, and, 364 personal financial situation and, 135 policy leadership and, 416 priorities and, 100, 145, 201–2, 353–54, 388, 414 progressive label and, 230 race and, 298 rationale for support for, 345–46 Reid, Harry, and, 396 religion and, 11, 298 represents your values, 319 satisfaction with U.S. and, 88, 129, 168

486

THE GALLUP POLL

school spending cuts and, 282 security measures and, 15 Social Security and, 255 START Treaty and, 437 stimulus package and, 310–11 Supreme Court and, 347 swing voters and, 373–74 tax cuts and, 309, 425, 431–32 taxes and, 125–26, 442–43 Tea Party and, 114, 221, 223–24, 389 terrorism and, 310 third party and, 316 thought given to midterm elections, 299 threats to country and, 188–89, 223 understands problems Americans face in daily lives, 319–20 unemployment and, 431–32 United Nations and, 67 U.S. exceptionalism and, 449–50 voter turnout and, 343, 380 voting issues and, 118, 193, 284, 297, 371–72 Wall Street and, 310–11 well-being and, 4–5 Republicans in Congress approval ratings, 124, 305 compromise and, 394–95 confidence in, 80, 128 ethics and, 348 healthcare reform and, 103–4, 399 incumbents, 117–18, 190–91, 302–3, 368 as policy leader, 416 risks of, 417 tax cuts and, 309 taxes and, 440 terrorism and, 310 voting issues and, 297 researchers, confidence in, 80 reservoirs, pollution of, worry about, 97–98 respect, decline in, 162 as most important issue, 275, 403 responsibility, moral decline and, 162 rest, working parents and, 154 restaurants image of, 285 trends in, 292 smoking policies for, 267–68 retail industry as ideal job, 75 image of, 285 trends in, 292 retirement employer-provided plans, satisfaction with, 292–93 expectations of, 137–38, 143–44, 340 small-business owners and, 340–41 worry about, 153 See also Social Security Rhode Island access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 ideology in, 259

jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 well-being in, 60 Rice, Condoleezza, admiration of, 455 rivers, pollution of, worry about, 97–98 Roberts, John, 157, 185–86, 237, 264 Roe v. Wade. See abortion Roman Catholic Church. See Catholics Romney, Mitt favorability ratings, 237–38, 246 would support for Republican nomination, 55–56, 336, 404–5 Roosevelt, Eleanor, admiration of, 455 Roosevelt, Franklin, 242 royalties, as retirement income, 143–44, 341 rural areas strengths of, 164 wellbeing in, 163 Russia opinion of, 66 as threat, 62 sadness BMI and, 315 Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 331 religion and, 423 unemployment and, 191–92 sales personnel exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 Santorum, Rick, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 satisfaction with city, Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 330–31 with Congressional campaign conduct, 378–79 with education, 307 with employer-provided health insurance, 292–93 with healthcare costs, 409 with healthcare quality, 411 with health insurance companies, 411 with jobs, 91, 292 occupation and, 304 states by, 60 trends in, 14, 292–93 working parents and, 154 with Medicaid, 411 with Medicare, 411 with standard of living, 29–30, 57–58 race and, 227–28 with United States, 29–30, 59, 61, 88–89, 129, 168, 363, 447 midterm elections and, 329, 363–64 with vacation time, 292–93

with wages, 282, 292–93 trends in, 282 with work environment, 292 trends in, 292–93 See also approval ratings Saudi Arabia death penalty and, 393 opinion of, 66 savings (accounts) as best investment, 139 as retirement income, 143–44, 341 school(s). See education; public schools scientists, global warming and, 89–90 Senate. See Congress seniors abortion and, 93–94 church attendance and, 213 employment and well-being and, 202–3 foreign cars and, 87 healthcare reform and, 84, 104, 207 health conditions and, 108 health insurance and, 31 patriotism and, 222 as priority, 353 See also age service workers exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 as ideal job, 75 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 sex, sexual activity moral decline and, 162 between unmarried man/woman as morally acceptable, 174–75 See also homosexuals and homosexuality; marriage Sherrod, Shirley, 261 shopping bags, reusable, 121 small business confidence in, 245–46 trends in, 252–53 image of, 44 job creation and, 410 Obama, Barack, and, 35 owners, and retirement, 340–41 as priority, 353 regulation and, 41 small metro areas strengths of, 164 wellbeing in, 163 smoking cigarette tax, 289–90 demographics of, 168–69 education and, 141–42 hiring and, 284 income and, 141–42 occupation and, 304 prevalence of, 35

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

487

public venue policies, 267–68, 290 religion and, 451 residence location and, 163–64 secondhand smoke, as harmful, 268 states and, 289–90 socialism, image of, 44 Social Security expectations of, 143–44, 240–41, 340–41 as priority, 353 raising age for, 255–56 raising taxes for, 255–56 reform of, approaches to, 255–56, 360, 421 state of, 241 soil, contamination of, worry about, 97 Sotomayor, Sonia, 155, 157, 185–86, 237, 264–65 South Carolina access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 South Dakota access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 242–43 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 250 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 spending Christmas and, 370, 378, 402–3, 450–51, 456 trends in, 370, 402 consumers and, xiv, 21, 64, 72–73, 120, 132, 167, 294–95, 334–35, 377–78, 420, 450–51, 456 year-over-year, 120, 158–59 cutting back, 294–95 demographics of, 167 as new normal, 21, 64, 72–73, 120, 159, 294–95 post-Thanksgiving, 419–20 travel and, 179 underemployment and, 78–79 sports, industry, image of, 285 standard of living getting better/worse, 228, 230–31, 390 government and, 356–57 political affiliation and, 4 race and, 227–28 satisfaction with, 29–30, 57–58 worry about, 153 START treaty as priority, 414 support for, 432, 436–37 state government jobs with, 148, 305, 385, 410 market conditions in, 344

488

THE GALLUP POLL

prevalence of, 266–67 officeholders, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 states access to fruits and vegetables, 321 government jobs in, 266–67 job market and, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 239–40 obesity and, 262–63 smoking in, 289–90 well-being and, 60, 247–48 See also geographic region stem cell research, as morally acceptable, 174–75 Stevens, John Paul, 155 stimulus package Congress and, 310–11 mood and, 1 Obama, Barack, and, 35 as priority, 388, 420–21 stock market as good long-term investment, 139–40 investor optimism and, 3–4 as retirement income, 143–44, 341 worry about, 147 stress BMI and, 315 Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 331 job-related, 292–93 military and, 218–19 religion and, 423 trends in, 1–2 underemployment and, 85–86 unemployment and, 191–92 working parents and, 154 sugar taxes, 264 suicide doctor-assisted, as morally acceptable, 174–75 as morally acceptable, 174–75 summer, travel plans, 179 Supreme Court approval ratings, 346–47 characteristics of next justice, 155–56 Citizens United v. FEC, 23–24 confidence in, 245–46 ideology of, 347 Kagan and, 157, 185–86, 237, 264–65 swing states, party identification and, 250 swing voters, 373–74 demographics of, 374 synagogue. See church, church attendance tax cuts allowing to expire, 308–9 approaches to, 424–25 extension of, 431–32, 440 as priority, 353, 388, 414, 420–21 spending and, 457 taxes agreement compromise on, 442–43

support for, 440 as contraindicated, 353 entitlement reform and, 360 immigration and, 224 increases, on wealthy, as priority, 420–21 as most important issue, 447 Obama, Barack, and, 271, 421–22 as priority, 413–14 See also income tax; tax cuts teachers, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 Tea Party Beck rally and, 298 confidence in, 128 Congress and, 384 demographics of, 114–15 effects of, 389 enthusiasm for election and, 221 healthcare reform and, 399 ideology and, 221 Obama, Barack, and, 221 opinion of, 115 Pelosi, Nancy, and, 221 as policy leader, 416 Republican Party and, 314 support for, 114, 389, 400 third party and, 316 threats to country and, 223 technology, as strength, 63 teen pregnancy, moral decline and, 162 telephone industry, image of, 285 television commercials for candidates, dissatisfaction with, 379 industry, image of, 285 moral decline and, 162 news, confidence in, 245–46, 275–76 demographics of, 276 reporters, honesty and ethical standards of, 427–28 See also media Tennessee church attendance in, 62 Obama, Barack, and, 240 party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 terrorism Iraq War and, 287 media and, 28 as most important issue, 29, 59, 158, 309–10 Obama, Barack, and, 271 party preferred to deal with, 189, 297 progress in prevention of, 13 security measures air travel screenings, 415 profiling, 14–15 reviewed, 13 as threat, 62, 188 Tea Party and, 223 as voting issue, 118, 297

as weakness, 63–64 worry about, 12–14 Texas church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 jobs in, 53, 242–43 party identification in, 39–40 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 Thanksgiving mood and, 1 spending and, 419–20 Thatcher, Margaret, admiration of, 455 third party, desire for, 316 Thomas, Clarence, 185–86, 237, 264 Thompson, Fred, support for, 55 threats, most critical, 62, 188 Tea Party and, 223 See also issues most important Thune, John, would support for Republican nomination, 336, 404–5 time underemployment and, 86 working parents and, 154 tobacco. See smoking tourism. See travel town hall meetings, Obama, Barack, and, 18 toxic waste, worry about, 97 Toyoda, Akio, 76 Toyota, confidence in, 76 trade, Obama, Barack, and, 35–36 traditional values. See morality transportation commuting time, 276–77 government and, 356–57 as ideal job, 75 spending, 179 workers exercise and, 304 healthy eating and, 304 job satisfaction of, 304 obesity and, 304 smoking and, 304 use of strengths by, 304 well-being and, 304 travel air alternatives to, 415 privacy versus security and, 415 industry, image of, 285 spending, 179 summer plans, 179 tree, Christmas and, 453 tropical rain forests, loss of, worry about, 97 Truman, Harry S. approval ratings fifth to sixth quarter change, 131 first to second year change, 19

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

489

first year, 17 midterm elections and, 269, 329 quarterly averages, 17 second year, 18 re-election and, 337 trust, in government, Obama, Barack, and, 36 underemployment, 78–79, 112–13, 131–33, 148–49, 199–200, 348, 425–26 emotional cost of, 85–86 optimism and, 113 stress and, 85–86 trends in, 348 worry about, 278 See also unemployment unemployment, 112–13, 148–49, 320, 347–48, 425 actively looking for employment, 185 benefits extension of, 431–32 as priority, 414 demographics of, 185 economic confidence and, 227 financial hardship and, 137 index of, xiii moral decline and, 162 as most important issue, 29, 58–59, 95, 157–58, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 403–4, 447 as most important issue in 25 years, 95 optimism and, 184 outlook, 136–37 party preferred to deal with, 189 as priority, 353 stress and, 191–92 Tea Party and, 115 as threat, 188 Tea Party and, 223 as voting issue, 118 as weakness, 64 well-being and, 123 worry about, 147, 277–78 See also employment; jobs uninsured, 9–10, 99–100, 238–39, 344, 386, 444–45 demographics of, 10, 105 healthcare reform and, 84, 101–2, 104, 106 trends in, 31 United Kingdom, opinion of, 66 United Nations, opinion of, 67–68 United States exceptionalism and, 449–50 healthcare reform and, 101 image of, 60–61 outlook for, 2–3 prosperity of, Obama, Barack, and, 98–99 responsibility of, 449–50 satisfaction with, 29–30, 59, 61, 88–89, 129, 168, 363, 447 midterm elections and, 329, 363–64 strengths of, 63 weaknesses of, 63–64 university professors, confidence in, 80

490

THE GALLUP POLL

Utah church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 economic confidence in, 47 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 party identification in, 39–40, 249–50 smoking in, 289 well-being in, 60, 247–48 vacation spending, 179 time, satisfaction with, 292–93 Vermont access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 economic confidence in, 47 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 party identification in, 39–40, 249–50 well-being in, 60, 247–48 veterans health insurance coverage, 31–32 prevalence of, 68–69, 99, 239, 311, 344 as priority, 353 well-being and, 218–19 violence. See crime Virginia economic confidence in, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 jobs in, 53, 242–43 party identification in, 39–40 voters registered, generic ballot, 206, 342–43 turnout of, 301–2, 380 age and, 301–2 political affiliation and, 343 race and, 301–2 See also under election; swing voters voting campaigners, advantageous, 362–63, 365–66 early, 372–73 demographics of, 372 turnout, midterm elections and, 299, 342–43 See also under election wages satisfaction with, 282, 292–93 trends in, 282 worry about, 278 See also income; money walking alone at night, worry about, 390–91 Wall Street bailout of, Congress and, 208–9, 310–11 regulation of, 129–30, 140

Congress and, 310–11 as priority, 145, 353 war Congress and, 208–9 as most important issue, 59, 200–201, 234, 275, 318, 403, 447 outlook for, 73 party preferred to deal with, 189 as threat, 188 as weakness, 63–64 See also Afghanistan; Iraq War Washington (state) access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 church attendance in, 62 Congressional reapportionment and, 453–54 ideology in, 42, 259 jobs in, 53 well-being in, 247–48 water pollution of, worry about, 97–98 supply, worry about, 97 weather, global warming beliefs and, 90 weight classification of, 49 current, 417 demographics of, 351 difference between actual and ideal, 417 emotional health and, 315 hiring and, 284 ideal, 417 seriously trying to lose, 418 trends in, 350 would like to gain, 418 would like to lose, 418 Well-Being Index, xv, 1–2, 56–57, 90–91, 159, 193–94, 272–73, 308, 358, 397, 435 age and, 168–69 caregivers and, 433 commuting time and, 276–77 exercise and, 15–17 health insurance coverage and, 9–10, 31–32 heart attack incidence, 186–87 military and, 218–19, 235 obesity and, 262–63 occupations and, 303–4 political affiliation and, 4–5 religion and, 375–76 residence location and, 163–64 states and, 60, 247–48 trends in, 14 underemployment and, 85–86 unemployment and, 192 West Virginia access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 jobs in, 53, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 262–63 satisfaction with standard of living in, 57 smoking in, 289

well-being in, 60, 247–48 whites church attendance and, 213 Clinton, Bill, and, 262 computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 death penalty and, 392 DREAM Act and, 436 election of 2010 and, 196, 339, 380 employment and, well-being and, 123 enthusiasm for election and, 196 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 healthcare reform and, 12 health insurance and, 10, 32 Obama, Barack, and, 33, 156, 170–71, 261–62, 341 obesity and, 51, 295, 351 party identification of, 298 Republican Party and, 327 satisfaction of, 227–28 security measures and, 15 smoking and, 169 standard of living and, 227–28 Tea Party and, 115 thought given to midterm election, 301 unemployment and, 185 WikiLeaks, 260 wine, 256–57 Winfrey, Oprah, admiration of, 455–56 Wisconsin access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 government jobs in, 266–67 women abortion and, 142–43, 160–61 admiration of, 454–56 alcohol and, 257 candidate matchups and, 337 church attendance and, 213 computer-/Internet-based crime and, 438 death penalty and, 392 election of 2010 and, 140–41, 380 employment and, well-being and, 123 environmental movement and, 134 exercise and, 16 fear of crime and, 391 global warming and, 92 government jobs and, 34 gun control and, 413 healthcare reform and, 12 health insurance and, 10, 32 heart attack and, 187 jobs and, 30 Kagan, Elena, and, 157, 186, 265 marijuana legalization and, 375 morality and, 174–75 Obama, Barack, and, 6, 33, 170–71, 341 obesity and, 50–51, 351 patriotism and, 222 Republican Party and, 327 security measures and, 15

PUBLIC OPINION 2010

491

smoking and, 169 spending and, 72, 167 Supreme Court and, 155 Tea Party and, 114 travel plans and, 179 unemployment and, 185 voter turnout and, 302 weight and, 417 working parents, time/sleep experiences, 154 Woods, Tiger, favorability ratings, 393 work environment, 90–91, 159, 273, 308, 435 religion and, 376 residence location and, 163 satisfaction with, 292 trends in, 292–93 smoking policies for, 267–68 states by, 60 trends in, 14 as understaffed, 349–50 worry BMI and, 315

492

THE GALLUP POLL

Gulf of Mexico oil spill and, 331 religion and, 423 underemployment and, 85–86 unemployment and, 191–92 Wyoming access to fruits and vegetables in, 321 economic confidence in, 47, 253–54 government jobs in, 266–67 ideology in, 259 jobs in, 242–43 Obama, Barack, and, 45, 240 obesity in, 263 party identification in, 39–40, 249–50 well-being in, 247–48 Yemen, opinion of, 66 youth abortion and, 93–94 moral decline and, 162 moral improvement and, 163 See also age