Global Development Finance 2006 (Global Development Finance) (v. 1)

T H E

W O R L D

B A N K

Global Development Finance The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows I:

R E V I E W,

A N A L Y S I S,

A N D

O U T L O O K

2006

Global Development Finance The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows I: Review, Analysis, and Outlook

Global Development Finance The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows

I :

R E V I E W ,

A N A L Y S I S ,

T H E

A N D

W O R L D

O U T L O O K

B A N K

2006

© 2006 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved. 1 2 3 4 09 08 07 06 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and / or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover photo: Dennis Degnan/Corbis. Cover design: Drew Fasick. ISBN-10: 0-8213-5990-8 ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-5990-7 eISBN-10: 0-8213-6480-4 eISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6480-2 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-5990-7 ISSN: 1020-5454

The cutoff date for data used in this report was May 17, 2006. Dollars are current U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified.

Table of Contents

Foreword

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Acknowledgments

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Selected Abbreviations

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Overview and Policy Messages: The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows 1 The broad surge in private capital flows continues 2 Global growth has propelled the surge in capital flows, but serious risks remain 4 Capital flows are being transformed 5 Net official flows continue to decline 7 To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows effectively Multilateral cooperation is key to resolving global financial imbalances 10 Chapter 1 Prospects for the Global Economy 13 Summary of the outlook 13 Global growth 16 Regional outlooks 18 Commodity markets 22 Inflation, interest rates, and global imbalances World trade 30 Risks 32 Avian influenza 36 Notes 39 References 41

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Chapter 2 The Growth and Transformation of Private Capital Flows Private debt market developments in 2005 45 Structural changes in emerging market debt 59 Prospects for private capital flows 71 Annex: Commercial Debt Restructuring 73 Developments in 2005 and the first quarter of 2006 73 Notes 75 References 75 Chapter 3 Supporting Development through Aid and Debt Relief Recent trends and prospects for foreign aid 80 Debt relief: improving and maintaining debt sustainability

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79 87

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The challenge ahead: accessing external capital, while maintaining debt sustainability Annex: Debt Restructuring with Official Creditors 100 Notes 102 References 103

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Chapter 4 Financial Integration among Developing Countries 107 The growth of South–South capital flows 108 Foreign direct investment in the developing world 110 South–South banking 117 Developing-country stock exchanges 124 Conclusion 127 Chapter 4 Annexes 128 Annex 1: Data on South–South capital flows 128 Annex 2: Selected South–South M&A deals by southern multinationals in service sector, 2000–5 130 Annex 3: Model of determinants of bank ownership 131 Notes 131 References 133 Chapter 5 Challenges in Managing Capital Flows 139 Two booms in capital flows—what has changed? 141 The effect of the recent influx of capital flows on domestic investment and asset prices Lessons and policy agenda 159 Annex: Capital Flows and Domestic Investment 164 Notes 166 References 166 Statistical Appendix

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Tables

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1 2

Net capital flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 3 Net private capital flows to developing countries by region, 1998–2005

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8

The global outlook in summary 17 Estimated impact of three risk scenarios 34 Impact of a 400-basis-point increase in interest rates in selected developing countries Impact of a further $30 hike in oil prices in selected developing countries 35 Impact of a 15 percent fall in non-oil commodity 36 Impact of a widening of bird-bird flu 37 Possible economic impacts of flu pandemic 37 A breakdown of economic impacts of a potential human-to-human pandemic 38

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8

Net private debt flows to developing countries, 2002–5 45 Gross market-based debt flows to developing countries, 2002–5 45 Gross cross-border loan flows, 2005 49 Countries’ access to international capital markets by intermediaries, 2002–5 50 Asset allocation of major international pension funds, 2004 54 Net FDI flows to developing countries, 2000–5 55 Selected announced privatization and M&A deals in developing countries, 2005 57 International bonds and notes outstanding, by currency, 1999–2005 59

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T A B L E

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5A.1

Net ODA disbursements, 1990–2005 80 ODA and debt relief grants in 2005 81 Main components of bilateral ODA, 1990–2005 81 Net ODA disbursements to the ten largest recipient countries 83 Donors’ shares of ODA in 2005, projected 2010 84 General government financial balances in 2004, projected 2005–7 85 ODA as a percentage of fiscal expenditures and revenues in 2004, projected 2006 Debt relief grants provided by DAC donor countries, by income and region of beneficiary, 1990–2005 87 Debt-service reductions to be provided by the MDRI 92 Donors’ commitment to refinance IDA for debt relief provided under the MDRI, selected years 93 Net present value of external debt relative to GNI and exports, 2004 94 Credit ratings for decision-point HIPCs 97 Average annual real GDP growth, 1990–2005 97 Indicators of external position of the 29 decision-point HIPCs, 1990–2005 99

O F

C O N T E N T S

85

South–South FDI as a share of global FDI, 1999–2003 111 Regional FDI by multinationals from selected countries 112 Selected southern multinationals in the oil-and-gas sector, 2004 113 South–South cross-border syndicated lending, 1985–2005 119 Source of foreign bank assets, by region 120 Performance indicators for northern and southern foreign banks, selected aggregates, 2000–4 123 Stock exchanges in selected developing countries, December 2005 125 Ratio of short-term debt to total debt in major borrowing countries, 1996–2004 Profile of external financial policy for developing countries considered relatively open to capital movements 149 Current account aggregated by region, 1997–2005 150 Sources of reserve accumulation, 1997–2005 151 Changes in central bank balance sheets, 2001–5 153 Foreign currency reserves and foreign assets as shares of total central bank assets in countries with high reserve accumulations, 2005 154 Investment performance during the surge in capital flows, 2002–4 158 Indicators of overheating in selected developing countries, 2002–4 160 Stock market performance in emerging markets, 2002–5 161 Domestic investment and private capital flows 165

144

Figures 1 2 3 4 5

Financial flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 2 Benchmark spreads for emerging markets, 2001–6 4 Capital outflows by private entities in the developing world, 1981–2005 5 Net official lending and foreign aid grants to developing countries, 1980–2005 Net official lending, 1997–2005 7

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Industrial production remains robust 16 Inflation in high-income countries 16 Developing-country growth remains robust Regional growth trends 19 An end to the trend rise in oil prices? 22

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1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23

Higher prices slow oil demand 23 A disappointing supply response 23 Spare production capacity remains low 24 Commodity prices 24 Moderate increases in inflation 25 Flattening yield curve 26 Changes in real effective exchange rate 26 Developing countries’ current-account balances 27 Increased aid helped finance oil costs in 2004 27 Reserves in some countries are falling rapidly or worrisomely low Tensions associated with fast growth, the case of Turkey 28 Global imbalances 29 Interest rate spreads support the dollar 29 Funding the U.S. current account deficit 30 Healthy growth in world trade 30 Regional increases in market share 31 Increased product range explains most of Chinese export growth Exports of developing countries have diversified 32

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14

Net private debt flows to developing countries, 1991–2005 43 Emerging market bond issuers by type, 2002–5 48 Average spreads on new bond issues, 2001–5 48 Bond market financing by risk category, 2002–5 48 Concentration in bond and bank financing, 1993–2003 51 Comparative cost of bond and bank financing, June 2004–December 2005 51 Bank financing raised for core activities, 2002–5 52 Bank credit for high-risk borrowers: rising rates but longer maturities, 2001–5 52 IPO activities in emerging market countries 2001–5 54 Investment climate and FDI 55 The concentration of FDI, 1995–2005 56 Euro-denominated international bond issues, by region, 1999–2005 60 Yields on U.S. and German 10-year government bonds, 1999–2005 60 Comparison of euro-denominated and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bond issues 61 The global credit derivatives market in notional terms, 2001–5 62 Credit derivative participants, 2004 64 Five-year CDS and ASW spreads for selected countries, 2002–5 65 Trends in domestic debt securities in emerging markets, by region, 1997–2005 66 The size of the domestic bond market in selected countries 66 Bond market profile in selected countries, September 2005 67 Performance of local-currency bonds (ELMI+) against major indexes, 2002–5 69 Returns vs. volatility of selected bond indexes, 2000–5 69

2.15 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20 2.21 2.22 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7

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F I N A N C E

28

32

Net ODA to developing countries, 1990–2005 81 Bilateral ODA loans and grants, 1990–2005 82 Share of total ODA allocated to LDCs and other low-income countries, 1990–2004 82 Net ODA as a percentage of GNI in DAC donor countries, 1990–2005 and projected 2006–10 85 Debt-service payments and HIPC debt-service reduction for 28 “decision point” HIPCs 89 Debt-service reduction provided by the HIPC Initiative to 25 decision-point countries 89 Debt service paid by 25 decision-point HIPCs, 2000 versus 2005 89

T A B L E

3.8 3.9

3.12

Debt-service reduction to be provided by the MDRI, 2006–45 92 Debt-service reduction to be provided to 18 completion-point HIPCs under the MDRI, 2006–45 92 Donors’ commitment to refinance IDA for debt relief provided under the MDRI, 2006–45 93 Debt burdens in 18 completion-point HIPCs, before and after the HIPC and MDRI debt relief 94 Net official lending to 27 decision-point HIPCs as a percent of GDP, 1990–2004 96

4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

South–South capital flows by type, 2005 108 Growing openness of developing countries to trade and capital flows, 1995–2005 110 South–South FDI in infrastructure and by region, 1998–2003 113 Cross-border lending to all countries by banks in developing countries, 2000–5 120 South–South foreign bank entry in developing countries, by country income level 121 Developing-country firms shift away from ADRs 126

5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

Distribution of private capital flows across developing countries, 2002–4 142 Composition of financial flows to developing countries, 1992–7 and 2002–5 143 Ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short-term debt, by region 143 Changes in exchange rate flexibility, 1991–2004 145 Frequency distribution of daily percentage changes in exchange rates for selected developing countries, 1993–6 vs. 2003–5 146 Movements in real effective exchange rates in East Asia and Latin America, 1993–2005 147 Real exchange rates for selected countries that receive higher-than-average private capital inflows as a ratio to GDP, 1994–7 and 2002–5 147 Current-account balance, developing countries, 1990–2005 150 Value of oil imports, oil-importing countries, 2001–5 150 Foreign exchange reserves, by region, 1995–2005 153 Foreign exchange reserves as a share of trade, 1970–2003 153 Currency composition of developing countries’ foreign exchange reserves, 2000 and 2005 156 Market capitalization 160 Turnover on world stock exchanges, 2004 160 Ratios of debt to equity in selected countries, 1996–2004 161

3.10 3.11

5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15

O F

C O N T E N T S

Boxes 1

International migrant remittances

3

2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6

The emerging bond market enters the mainstream 46 Strong performance of emerging stock markets in 2005 53 Growing FDI in China’s banking sector 57 Accession to the European Union and FDI 58 Credit default swaps 63 The role of multilateral development banks in developing local-currency bond markets

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5

The Integrated Framework for Trade-Related Technical Assistance The HIPC Initiative 88 The Paris Club 90 The MDRI 91 The DSF for low-income countries 95

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4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

Developing countries as aid donors 109 South–South FDI and trade 111 The World Bank Group and South–South flows Determinants of South–South foreign bank entry

5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

Preconditions for capital-account liberalization 148 Capital flows are procyclical with respect to non-oil commodity markets Central bank debt in China 155 Optimizing allocations in reserve portfolios 157 Investment and private capital flows 159

116 122

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Foreword

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OBUST GLOBAL GROWTH AND A favorable financing environment provided the context for a record expansion of private capital flows to developing countries in 2005. These conditions now provide a unique opportunity for the international policy community to place development finance on a firmer footing before the tightening of global liquidity closes the window of opportunity. Most of the record $491 billion in net private capital bound for the developing world in 2005 went to a small group of middle-income countries. Many of those countries took advantage of the growing inflows to improve their external debt profiles and accumulate large holdings of official foreign exchange reserves. By contrast, many low-income countries still have little or no access to international private capital, and instead depend largely on official finance from bilateral and multilateral creditors to support their development objectives. With a decade remaining to attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), expectations of a “big push” in development assistance escalated during 2005. Donors enhanced their efforts by scaling up aid volumes and reallocating them to the poorest countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, the Multilateral Debt Reduction Initiative (MDRI) will provide additional debt relief to qualifying heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), reducing debt service and freeing up more fiscal resources for the MDGs. At the same time, the development finance landscape is being transformed. A growing number of countries are issuing longer-term maturities in international capital markets, in some cases even denominated in local currencies. Domestic debt markets have become a major source of finance in some countries, attracting international investors in search of higher yields and potential gains from currency appreciation. Structured financial instruments such as credit default swaps allow investors to better manage exposure to

credit risks associated with emerging market external debt portfolios. Financial integration among developing countries continues to deepen with capital flows between developing countries (socalled South–South flows) playing a prominent role. The role of the euro has evolved, gaining importance both as an international reserve currency and for debt issuance by governments and the corporate sector in developing countries. The emerging market asset class has matured far beyond the earlier dominance of U.S. dollar-denominated, high-yield, sovereign-debt instruments—indeed the Brady bonds issued in the 1980s that once exemplified this category have all but disappeared. Global growth has remained surprisingly resilient to the rise in world oil prices over the past few years. Developing countries led the way with GDP growth in 2005 of 6.4 percent, more than twice the rate of high-income countries (2.8 percent). While inflation has, on the whole, remained subdued, there are signs of a pickup in several rapidly growing countries, which raises the possibility of overheating and the need for a tightening of macroeconomic policies. More generally, current account balances in oil-importing countries have deteriorated significantly, leaving them more vulnerable to subsequent adverse shocks. Looking forward, while many of the external factors that have supported strong developingcountry growth are projected to weaken, economic growth is expected to remain relatively strong. However, downside risks predominate. Persistent global imbalances, elevated current account deficits in some developing countries, and asset price over valuation are potential sources of risks to growth prospects in developing countries. In addition, a sharp supply shock could send oil prices even higher, with serious consequences for the most energy-dependent developing economies. A fall in non-oil commodity prices could have similar consequences for some of the poorest countries, which have benefited from higher metals and mineral prices. Finally, the Doha Round stands at

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a critical juncture; governments need to agree on the key elements of a deal by mid-2006, but positions on the central issue of market access for agricultural and nonagricultural goods remain far apart. A key priority for developing countries going forward is to pursue policies that strengthen their capacity to weather whatever global storms may be brewing. Continued macroeconomic stability is vital to ensure effective management of capital flows to advance long-term investment and growth. Countries must preserve sound financial management, with monetary and fiscal policies working in tandem to maintain debt sustainability and price stability. They must also build a system of risk management robust enough to respond to the needs of a more flexible exchange rate and open capital markets. Regulators in developing countries need to build their capacity to monitor credit default swap transactions and define a clear line of responsibility and necessary expertise to better manage the associated risks. Oil exporters face the special challenges of managing the risks surrounding volatile export revenues and using those revenues productively. All countries would be affected by a disorderly unwinding of global imbalances, which would destabilize international financial markets and curtail global growth. But developing countries would suffer disproportionately, particularly if the imbalances were to foster a backlash of trade protectionism. With deepening economic and financial integration, all countries share responsibil-

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ity for ensuring that policies are pursued that permit imbalances to unwind in an orderly and timely manner. This requires cooperation. The key policy prescriptions are well-known—the challenge is to make meaningful progress in implementing those policies. Policy makers in the major economies understand the importance of a coordinated approach and therefore have endorsed the proposal for the International Monetary Fund to play a more prominent role in coordinating the required collective action. Global Development Finance is the World Bank’s annual review of global financial conditions facing developing countries. The current volume provides analysis of key trends and prospects, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves. A separate volume contains detailed standardized external debt statistics for 135 countries as well as summary data for regions and income groups. More information on the analysis, including additional material, sources, background papers, and a platform for interactive dialogue on the key issues can be found at www.worldbank.org/prospects. A companion online publication, Prospects for the Global Economy, is available in English, French, and Spanish at www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.

François Bourguignon Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank

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Acknowledgments

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HIS REPORT WAS PREPARED BY THE International Finance Team of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group (DECPG). Substantial support was also provided by staff from other parts of the Development Economics Vice Presidency, World Bank operational regions and networks, the International Finance Corporation, and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. The principal author was Mansoor Dailami, with direction by Uri Dadush. The report was prepared under the general guidance of François Bourguignon, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. The principal authors of each chapter were: Overview

Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Mansoor Dailami, with contributions from the International Finance Team and William Shaw Andrew Burns Mansoor Dailami, Ismail Dalla, Dilek Aykut, Eung Ju Kim Douglas Hostland, William Shaw, and Gholam Azarbayejani William Shaw, Dilek Aykut, Jacqueline Irving, and Neeltje Van Horen Mansoor Dailami, Johanna Francis, and Eung Ju Kim

Preparation of the commercial and official debt restructuring appendixes was managed by Eung Ju Kim, with inputs from Haocong Ren and Gholam Azarbayejani. The financial flow, debt estimates and the statistical appendix were developed in a collaborative effort between DECPG and the Financial Data Team of the Development Data Group (DECDG), led by Ibrahim Levent and including Nevin Fahmy, Shelly Fu, and Gloria R. Moreno. Background notes and papers were prepared by Paul Masson (University of Toronto), Michael Pomerleano (Operations and Policy Department of the Bank’s Financial Sector), and Ivan Zelenko (Banking, Capital Mar-

kets, and Financial Engineering of the Bank’s Treasury). The main macroeconomic forecasts were prepared by the Global Trends Team of DECPG, led by Hans Timmer and including John Baffes, Andrew Burns, Carolina Diaz-Bonilla, Maurizio Bussolo, Betty Dow, Annette de Kleine, Fernando Martel Garcia, Don Mitchell, Mick Riordan, Cristina Savescu, Shane Streifel, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe. Gauresh Rajadhyaksha managed and maintained the modeling and data systems. Mombert Hoppe, Denis Medvedev, Sebnem Sahin, and Shuo Tan provided research assistance and technical support. Contributors to regional outlooks included Milan Brahmbhatt (East Asia and Pacific); Asad Alam, Cheryl Gray, and Ali Mansoor (Europe and Central Asia); Ernesto May and Guillermo Perry (Latin America and the Caribbean); Mustapha Nabli (Middle East and North Africa); Ejaz Syed Ghani (South Asia); and Delfin Go (Sub-Saharan Africa). The online companion publication, Prospects for the Global Economy, was prepared by Andrew Burns, Sarah Crow, Cristina Savescu and Shuo Tan with the assistance of Roula Yazigi and Shunalini Sarkar and the Global Trends team. Technical help in the production of that Web site was provided by Reza Farivari, Sarubh Gupta, David Hobbs, Shahin Outadi, Raja Reddy Komati Reddy, Malarvizhi Veerappan, Cherin Verghese, and Kavita Watsa. The report also benefited from the comments of the Bank’s Executive Directors, given at an informal board meeting on May 4, 2006. Many others provided inputs, comments, guidance, and support at various stages of the report’s preparation. Charles Collyns (International Monetary Fund), Ishrat Husain (Former Governor, State Bank of Pakistan), Mark Sundberg, Michael Klein, and Stijin Claessens were discussants at the Bankwide review. In addition, within the Bank, comments and help were provided by Alan Gelb, Alan Winters, Ali Mansoor, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Barbara Mierau-Klein, Anderson

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Caputo Silva, Angela Gentile (MIGA), Brian Pinto, Cheryl Gray, Dan Goldblum, Deepak Bhattasali, Doris Herrera-Pol, Ekaterina Vostroknutova, Ellis Juan, Eric Swanson, Francis Jean-Francois Perrault, Frannie Leautier, Gianni Zanini, Jeffrey Lewis, Joseph Battat (IFC), Marilou Uy, Muthukumaras Mani, Punam Chuhan, Sergio Schmukler Shahrokh Fardoust, Sona Varma, Ulrich Zachau, and Vikram Nehru. Outside the Bank, several people contributed through meetings and correspondence on issues addressed in the report. These include Hiro Ito (Portland State University), Boubacar Trore (African

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Development Bank), Joyce Chang (JPMorgan Chase Bank), and William Cline (Institute for International Economics). Steven Kennedy edited the report. Maria Amparo Gamboa provided assistance to the team. Araceli Jimeno and Dorota Agata Nowak managed the production of the report, while communication guidance and support for the report were provided by Christopher Neal and Cynthia Carol Case McMahon. Book design, editing, production, and printing were coordinated by Susan Graham and Andres Ménèses of the World Bank Office of the Publisher.

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Selected Abbreviations ABF ABMI ADB ADRs AfDF ASEAN ASW BIS CDS CPIA DAC DRC DSF EBRD ELMI EMBI EMBIG EMCDS EMEAP EU FDI FLIRBs FoBF G-3 G-7

G-8 G-90 GDF GDP GEP GNI HIPCs

Asian Bond Finance Asian Bond Market Inititative Asian Development Bank American Depositary Receipts African Development Fund Association of Southeast Asian Nations asset swap Bank for International Settlements credit default swap Country Policy and Institutional Assessment Development Assistance Committee (OECD) Democratic Republic of Congo Debt Sustainability Framework European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Emerging Local Markets Index Emerging Markets Bond Index Emerging Markets Bond Index Global emerging market credit default swap Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks European Union foreign direct investment Front-Loaded Interest Reduction Bonds Fund of Bond Funds Group of Three (European Union, Japan, United States) Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) Group of Eight (G-7 plus Russian Federation) Group of Ninety (developing countries) Global Development Finance (World Bank) gross domestic product Global Economic Prospects (World Bank) gross national income heavily indebted poor countries

IABs IDA IDB IMF IPO LDCs mbpd MDGs MDRI MERCOSUR MIGA NAFTA NDF ODA OECD OPEC PAIF PPP ROSCs SAARC SADC SBI SME SOE UAE UNCTAD WDI WDR WHO WTO

interest arrears bonds International Development Association (World Bank Group) Inter-American Development Bank International Monetary Fund initial public offering least developed countries million barrels per day Millennium Development Goals Multilateral Debt Reduction Initiative Southern Cone Common Market (Mercado Común del Sur) Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency North American Free Trade Agreement nondeliverable foreign exchange forward market official development assistance Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund purchasing power parity reports on the observance of standards and codes (IMF and World Bank) South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Southern African Development Community State Bank of India small and medium enterprise state-owned enterprise United Arab Emirates United Nations Conference on Trade and Development World Development Indicators (World Bank) World Development Report (World Bank) World Health Organization World Trade Organization

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Overview and Policy Messages: The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows

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005 WAS A LANDMARK YEAR IN global development finance, in both the official and private spheres. International private capital flows to developing countries reached a record net level of $491 billion. The increase in private capital flows in 2005 was broad-based, with long-term bond issuance, bank lending, and portfolio equity showing strong gains. A wave of privatizations and cross-border mergers and acquisitions drew substantial foreign direct investment (FDI). Governments and private entities took advantage of favorable financial-market conditions to refinance outstanding debt and fund future borrowing, while local-currency bond markets in Asia and Latin America attracted substantial interest from international investors in search of higher yields and potential gains from currency appreciation. Meanwhile, financial integration among developing countries continued to deepen. Capital flows between developing countries (socalled South–South flows) are now growing more rapidly than North–South flows, particularly FDI. The strong gains in private capital flows have been supported by financial innovations, notably local-currency financing and structured financial instruments, such as credit default swaps and other derivatives, which have improved the ability of investors to manage their exposure to the risks associated with emerging market assets. Development finance took center stage at a series of major international forums in 2005. With a decade remaining to attain the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), expectations for a big push in development assistance escalated over the course of the year, with a strong focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, the only region not on track to meet any of the goals. There was broad agreement on the need

to scale up aid significantly and to further reduce the debt burdens of heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) to provide additional financial resources needed to make progress on the MDGs. In keeping with those objectives, donors have enhanced their aid effort over the past few years and taken steps to improve the allocation of aid by providing more development assistance to the poorest countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Donors also have provided targeted support for trade facilitation and developed a framework for improving the effectiveness of aid. Overall, aid in the form of grants and concessional loans has risen, while net lending by the official sector on nonconcessional terms has declined significantly. The global economy grew at a robust pace of 3.6 percent in 2005, with the developing world exceeding 5 percent growth for the third year running. Global economic and financial conditions remain favorable, on the whole, despite several potentially destabilizing developments, notably high and volatile oil prices, growing global financial imbalances, and rising short-term policy interest rates in some of the major industrial countries. International financial markets have remained resilient to the test of several major credit events, including the downgrading of two major U.S. automakers and the settlement of backlogged credit derivatives contracts that had come to the attention of U.S. regulatory authorities. The upward trend in private capital flows appears to have continued in the early months of 2006, and the short-run prospects are good. But the external environment could well prove less auspicious in the future than in recent years, depending critically on the course and dynamics of the necessary rebalancing of global savings and investment patterns to underpin

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the orderly unwinding of large and unsustainable global financial imbalances. The surge in private capital flows offers national and international policy makers a major opportunity to bolster development efforts if they can successfully meet three challenges. The first is to ensure that more countries, especially poorer ones, enhance their access to developmentally beneficial international capital through improvements in their macroeconomic performance, investment climate, and use of aid. The second is to avoid sudden capital flow reversals by redressing global imbalances through policies that recognize the growing interdependencies between developed and developing countries’ financial and exchange rate relations in the determination of global financial liquidity and asset price movements. And the third is to ensure that development finance, both official and private, is managed judiciously to meet the development goals of recipient countries while promoting greater engagement with global financial markets. These are the themes and concerns of this year’s edition of Global Development Finance.

The broad surge in private capital flows continues

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et capital inflows from official and private sources increased from $418 billion in 2004 to $472 billion in 2005. While net official lending was negative, net flows of private capital to developing countries swelled for the third consecutive year, reaching $491 billion in 2005, the highest level on record (figure 1 and table 1). Demand for emerging market debt and equities remained strong, spurred by improved fundamentals in many developing countries and investors’ search for higher yields in an environment where longterm interest rates remain low in major industrial countries, despite higher short-term interest rates. Developing countries’ finances also received a boost from workers’ remittances, which continued their steady increase of the past decade (box 1). The increase in private capital flows has been broad-based, extending across most debt and equity components and across most of the developing world. Long-term bond flows (up $19 billion over 2004), medium- and long-term bank lending (up $28 billion), and portfolio equity (up $24 billion) showed the strongest gains. The cost of bond

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Figure 1 Financial flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 $ billions 500 400 300

Total net capital flows

200

Net private flows

100

Net official flows

0 –100 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

issuance has dropped for many developing countries, as long-term interest rates in industrial countries remain low (despite increases in short-term rates in the Euro Area, the United States, and elsewhere) and spreads on emerging market sovereign bonds continue to decline. Those spreads reached a record low of 174 basis points in May 2006 (figure 2). Short-term borrowing remained at approximately the same level as in 2004 and about $14 billion higher than in 2003, in sharp contrast to the negative flows of short-term debt that were seen from 1998 to 2001. The rise in private flows also was widespread, with all regions experiencing an increase (table 2): •

•

•

A surge in flows to the Russian Federation and Turkey helped to boost flows to the Europe and Central Asia region to $192 billion in 2005, up from $160 billion in 2004. The region accounts for 39 percent of developing countries’ private flows, almost double the share it commanded in 2001. Stronger bond and equity activity increased private flows to Latin America and the Caribbean from $59 billion in 2004 to $94 billion in 2005. But the region’s share of private flows to the developing world plummeted from 45 percent in 2000 to 19 percent last year. Flows to East Asia and the Pacific increased to $138 billion from $125 billion the year before, despite lower FDI to China. A marked strengthening in flows to several regional economies explains the increase.

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Table 1 Net capital flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1998

Current account balance as % GDP

–84.5 –1.5

–89.4 –1.6

–4.0 –0.1

47.1 0.8

18.8 0.3

Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows

199.3 168.7 30.6 107.2 13.1 9.2 3.4 0.5 94.1 85.0 38.4 44.0 2.7 9.2

179.4 172.4 6.9 54.3 34.3 8.7 14.1 11.5 19.9 85.7 40.6 50.3 –5.2 –65.8

195.9 183.3 12.6 16.3 13.9 8.8 –2.2 7.3 2.5 22.0 30.6 –7.1 –1.5 –19.6

182.9 168.8 14.1 –1.0 –5.7 7.9 –10.7 –2.9 4.7 11.5 20.5 –5.2 –3.8 –6.8

–169.5 –52.4

–127.8 –16.4

–175.0 –33.2

25.3 293.5 38.3 71.2

26.7 199.3 61.1 73.1

28.5 198.4 42.4 77.0

Balancing itema Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt) Workers’ remittances

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

69.8 1.2

122.3 1.8

153.1 1.9

248.4 2.6

183.3 176.9 6.4 –1.5 27.4 7.5 19.5 0.4 –28.9 –6.2 11.0 –10.8 –6.3 –22.7

166.1 160.3 5.8 10.7 5.2 –0.2 14.0 –8.6 5.5 1.2 10.8 –2.8 –6.8 4.2

186.8 161.6 25.2 72.8 –12.3 –0.9 2.4 –13.8 85.1 30.2 26.4 9.8 –5.9 54.9

248.8 211.5 37.3 119.1 –28.7 1.3 –14.7 –15.4 147.8 77.8 43.0 39.4 –4.6 70.0

298.9 237.5 61.4 120.1 –71.4 0.7 –41.1 –31.0 191.6 122.3 61.7 67.4 –6.7 69.3

–183.6 –45.4

–118.8 –81.7

–74.7 –171.9

–90.3 –291.6

–116.2 –404.8

–274.5 –393.0

28.7 187.6 23.0 85.2

27.9 154.4 55.3 96.4

32.5 171.5 37.7 113.2

43.7 271.9 31.4 141.2

50.3 396.6 21.6 161.1

52.6 490.5 –18.8 166.8

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates. a. Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing-country private entities. e = estimate.

Box 1

International migrant remittances

R

emittances are the largest source of external financing in many developing countries. According to official statistics, in 2005 remittance flows—defined as the sum of workers’ remittances, compensation of employees, and migrant transfers in the balance-of-payments statistics collected by the International Monetary Fund—are estimated to have exceeded $233 billion worldwide, of which developing countries received $167 billion. Unrecorded flows moving through informal channels push the total far higher, as they are conservatively estimated to amount to at least 50 percent of the recorded flows. Remittances bring substantial benefits to developing countries: •

•

•

Household survey evidence, confirmed by crosscountry analyses, indicates that remittances can have a significant impact on reducing poverty. Remittances are associated with increased household investment in education, entrepreneurship, and health—all of which have a high social return under most circumstances. Remittances tend to be countercyclical and thus support economic activity in the face of adverse shocks.

•

By generating a steady stream of foreign exchange, remittances can improve a country’s creditworthiness and enhance its access to international capital markets.

Recorded remittance flows to developing countries have doubled over the past five years, for several reasons. Increased scrutiny of financial transactions since the terrorist attacks of September 2001 has made remittances more visible. With the growth of competition in the remittance industry, costs have dropped in major corridors, while networks have expanded. Recently, high oil prices have swelled remittance flows from oil-exporting countries. Bahrain, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the Russian Federation have been important sources of remittances to developing countries. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar (which raises the value of remittances denominated in other currencies) and growth in the number of migrants and their incomes have contributed further to the increase. Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2006; World Bank staff calculations based on various data sources.

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2 0 0 6

Figure 2 Benchmark spreads for emerging markets, 2001–6 Basis points 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-05

Source: JPMorgan Chase. Note: As of April 7.

The creditworthiness of most developing countries continued to improve in 2005, as upgrades by credit rating agencies handily outpaced downgrades. Moreover, the pace of credit upgrades rose to 46 in 2005, up from 31 in 2004. Many developing countries have taken advantage of the favorable financial conditions by issuing bonds with longer maturities in international markets—in some cases denominated in local currency. Others have been able to buy back existing debt using the proceeds of new bonds issued at lower rates. Also, many countries have pre-funded future financing requirements. Syndicated bank lending to developing countries set records in 2005. Gross bank lending of $198 billion, an increase of 77 percent over 2004, involved 1,261 transactions in a broad range of sectors, dominated by oil-and-gas projects and oil-import financing. Meanwhile, booming stock markets in

emerging market economies boosted portfolio equity flows to a record $61 billion, up from $37 billion in 2004. However, private capital flows remain concentrated in just a few countries. In 2005 about 70 percent of bond financing and syndicated lending went to ten countries; three countries (China, India, and South Africa) accounted for almost two-thirds of all portfolio equity flows. Rather than fueling domestic investment, the rise in net inflows of private capital in 2005 financed a substantial rise in developing countries’ official reserve assets (almost as large as the record increase in 2004) and a very sharp increase in the accumulation of foreign assets by private entities— to $258 billion, again a record level (see figure 3). The opening of capital accounts in the developing world has increased opportunities for capital outflows, enabling developing-country residents to improve their investment returns and reduce their risks through international diversification.

Global growth has propelled the surge in capital flows, but serious risks remain

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lobal growth has remained surprisingly resilient to the rise in world oil prices over the past few years. Despite a doubling of oil prices from early 2003 to late 2005, world GDP expanded by a robust 3.6 percent in 2005. Developing countries led the way, with GDP growth of 6.4 percent, more than twice the rate of high-income countries (2.8 percent). The impact of higher oil prices on economic growth and inflation has been more subdued than in previous episodes. Global growth was down only 0.5 percentage points, and the expansion among developing countries was 0.7 percentage points, slower than in 2004. The reduced impact

Table 2 Net private capital flows to developing countries by region, 1998–2005 $ billions

East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

6.5 66.7 98.9 8.1 5.3 13.7

28.8 50.9 95.8 2.6 3.5 16.7

28.0 51.5 85.2 3.3 9.7 9.9

39.2 33.1 59.5 4.8 5.8 12.1

58.9 59.7 28.2 8.3 10.1 6.3

81.5 101.1 49.9 7.8 15.8 15.8

125.4 160.2 59.3 8.3 22.7 20.7

137.7 191.7 94.4 14.6 23.6 28.4

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

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Figure 3 Capital outflows by private entities in the developing world, 1981–2005 $ billions 260

210

160

110

60

10

– 40 1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

Sources: International Financial Statistics, IMF; and World Bank staff calculations. Note: The size of the increase in private assets is hard to judge, since it is calculated as a residual and thus includes errors and omissions from elsewhere in the balance of payments.

reflects several factors, notably lower oil intensities, more flexible product and labor markets, exchange rate flexibility, and more credible monetary policy. Higher nonoil commodity prices have offset the impact of higher oil prices on the terms of trade of some countries. Higher oil prices have had a major influence on the external and fiscal positions of most developing countries, however. For net oil exporters, higher oil prices have meant significant increases in external and fiscal surpluses, and higher foreign exchange reserves. For net oil importers, healthy current-account surpluses and ample foreign exchange reserves made it possible to cover the sizable increase in oil-import bills. Considerable increases in foreign aid for some of the poorest countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, provided an additional source of foreign currency. But fiscal deficits have risen alarmingly in countries that subsidize domestic energy prices. Despite high oil prices, growth in developing countries is expected to remain above 5 percent per year during the period 2006–8, well above the performance of the past two decades, and with inflationary pressures in check. The main risks to this relatively benign outlook are broadly unchanged since the last edition of Global Development Finance. The possibility that global imbalances might

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unwind in a disruptive fashion remains a risk— particular for heavily indebted countries and those with close economic ties to the United States. A second risk is that a sharp supply shock might send oil prices even higher, with potentially serious consequences for the most energy-dependent developing economies. A fall in nonoil commodity prices could have similar consequences for some of the poorest countries, which have benefited from higher metals and mineral prices. There is also a possibility that the current glut of liquidity in global financial markets may have caused investors to underprice the risk of emerging market assets (both debt and equity). Political risk has reemerged as a key concern for investors in several emerging market economies, where elections could portend major changes in policy direction. Finally, there is a risk that avian influenza (bird flu) could mutate into a form that is easily transmitted between humans and for which the population has limited immunity. Depending on the severity of the eventual disease, such a pandemic could kill between 14 million and 70 million people and lower global GDP by between 2 and 5 percent (with the latter number implying a global recession).

Capital flows are being transformed Financial integration among developing countries For much of its postwar history, development finance has been characterized as a one-way flow of capital from industrial countries to the developing world. But as developing countries have become more integrated with the global economy, they have emerged as important sources of capital flows in their own right. In the past decade, with rising incomes in developing countries and increasingly open policies toward trade and financial markets, developing countries have become a significant source of FDI, bank lending, and even official development assistance (ODA) to other developing countries. Overall, growing FDI between developing countries in recent years has sometimes compensated for reductions in FDI flows from high-income countries. But South–South capital flows, in particular, have also opened opportunities for low-income countries, because developing-country investors are often possibly better able to handle the special risks

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encountered in poor countries. Banks from developing countries play an increasingly prominent role in cross-border lending to low-income countries— borrowers in low-income countries received 17 percent of total South-South cross-border syndicated lending flows in 2005, up from 3 percent in 1985. Moreover, 27 percent of foreign bank assets in low-income countries are held by developingcountry banks, compared to just 3 percent in middle-income countries. South–South FDI is significant for many low-income countries, particularly those located close to major investors. Although South–South capital flows remain relatively small compared to North-South flows, they have the potential to change the landscape of development finance over the next few years, particularly if growth in developing countries continues to outstrip that in advanced countries and the trend toward deeper trade and financial integration persists.

Financial innovations The market for debt issued by developing countries is expanding beyond the dollar-denominated, high-yield, sovereign debt instruments that had come to define the emerging market asset class, as exemplified by Brady bonds (which will drop to only 6 percent of the original amount outstanding once announced buybacks are completed). Today, the emerging market asset class includes a range of instruments in both local and foreign currency that offer the capacity to tap dollar and euro investors alike and cater to the funding needs of both sovereign and corporate borrowers on both the cash and derivatives sides of the market. Credit default swaps—derivatives that provide insurance against defaults—are being applied in new ways in emerging markets. This has potentially important implications for the pricing and supply of debt capital to developing countries, offering investors a new way to take on exposure and enhancing the markets’ ability to gauge credit risk. By transferring banks’ credit risk from lending and trading activities to other market participants, credit derivatives have altered, perhaps fundamentally, the traditional approach to credit risk management and the lending business. While the emergence of this market could improve the ability of financial systems to diversify risk across a greater number of market participants, it remains a relatively immature and potentially vulnerable

6

market because of infrastructural shortcomings, a lack of regulatory frameworks robust enough to cope with the market’s dynamic nature, and the concentrated participation of a small number of dealers in emerging markets, which carries the risk that failure of a single player could have a destabilizing impact on the market.

Domestic debt markets Local-currency bond markets in developing countries have, since the crises of the 1990s, emerged as a major source of long-term development finance. They are now the fastest-growing segment of emerging market debt. Driven largely by domestic institutional and individual investors, these markets grew from $1.3 trillion at the end of 1997 to $3.5 trillion in September 2005. Their rapid growth has enabled major developing countries to improve debt management by reducing currency and maturity mismatches. Robust domestic bond markets have also improved financial intermediation and contributed to domestic growth, as both the government and corporate sectors have readier access to long-term capital. However, bringing the local-currency bond markets in emerging economies up to the standards of mature markets will require concerted efforts akin to those of the East Asian countries, which have yielded early successes. But local-currency debt markets also present new challenges for policy makers. The development of domestic debt markets requires modern and professional debt management procedures— to manage debt on an integrated basis (that is, both local and international debt)—especially in countries with few capital controls.

The global role of the euro Since its introduction on January 1, 1999, the euro has assumed an increasingly important international role. It has emerged as a principal issuing currency in the global debt market, as a vehicle for foreign exchange transactions, and as an important reserve currency for official holdings of foreign-exchange reserves. The elimination of exchange risk within the Euro Area has created a pan-European market for euro-denominated securities, attracting both sovereign and private borrowers, not only from Euro Area countries, but also from other countries—among them emerging market economies such as Brazil, Colombia, China, Mexico, and Turkey. Today’s euro-denomi-

O V E R V I E W

nated bond market rivals the dollar-based fixed-income markets in important respects, including size, depth, and product range. The euro is used increasingly in debt issuance, because it is the home currency of a large set of investors. It is less popular as a currency of denomination for reserves, owing to the dominance of the dollar as a vehicle for foreign exchange transactions and currency interventions—as well as the greater liquidity of the market for U.S. Treasury securities. Nevertheless, if the deteriorating U.S. current-account deficit sufficiently undermines confidence in the dollar, more official reserve holdings could be moved into euro-denominated assets, with the potential for a period of financial instability if the shift is abrupt.

Net official flows continue to decline Official lending falling Net official flows of grants and loans continued to fall in 2005—for the fourth consecutive year—as a sharp decline in net official lending more than offset gains in bilateral aid grants (table 1 and figure 4). Net official lending came to –$71.4 billion in 2005, the third consecutive year of net outflows from developing countries. In three years, developing countries have repaid $112 billion in loans to creditors. This largely reflects repayments of nonconcessional loans mostly by middle-income countries. In contrast, aid (comprised of concessional loans and grants) has increased significantly during this period, particularly for low-income countries.

Figure 4 Net official lending and foreign aid grants to developing countries, 1980–2005 $ billions Bilateral aid grants

50 25 0 –25 –50 –75 1980

Net official lending

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

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Figure 5 Net official lending, 1997–2005 $ billions 20

Official bilateral creditors

10 0 –10

World Bank

–20 –30 –40

IMF

–50 1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

The dramatic decline in net official lending over the past few years reflects, for the most part, large repayments to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and large prepayments to bilateral official creditors (figure 4). In 2005 net debt outflows from developing countries to the IMF totaled $41.1 billion, down from a net debt inflow of $19.5 billion in 2001, implying a –$60.6 billion swing in net lending by the IMF over the period 2001–5. The sharp decline is due to large repayments on emergency assistance loans made to Indonesia and the Russian Federation in 1997/8, and to Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey in 2001/2. The sharp decline in 2005 reflects large repayments by Argentina ($2.4 billion), Brazil ($16.8 billion), Indonesia ($1.0 billion), the Russian Federation ($2.3 billion), and Turkey ($4.2 billion). Moreover, gross lending by the IMF has declined from about $30 billion in 2002–3 to only $4 billion in 2005. This reflects the marked improvement in international financial stability, supported by the favorable global economic and financial conditions. The IMF’s outstanding credit has declined from special drawing rights (SDR) 71 billion in 2002/3 to SDR 23.5 billion in March 2006. Despite the low level of IMF credit outstanding, net lending by the IMF could continue to decline over the next few years with large scheduled repayments by Indonesia, Turkey, and Uruguay. Net lending by the official bilateral creditors declined by $27.0 billion in 2005 mainly due to large prepayments to the Paris Club by the Russian Federation ($15 billion), Poland ($5.6 billion) and Peru ($2.0 billion). Russia financed a $15 billion prepayment to the Paris Club using domestic

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financial resources, as its fiscal revenues increased dramatically in the wake of higher world oil prices. The prepayments by Peru and Poland were financed by borrowing in private capital markets, effectively substituting private debt for official (Paris Club) debt. Large prepayments to the Paris Club are expected to continue into 2006. In May 2006, Algeria and the Russian Federation made offers to prepay all of its remaining Paris Club debt, totaling $22 billion and $8 billion, respectively. Paris Club creditors have indicated their willingness to accept the proposals. Poland has announced its intention to prepay some of its €12.3 billion debt to the Paris Club, which will be due between 2005 and 2009.

More aid for the poorest countries, and more debt relief Net disbursements of ODA by OECD DAC member countries increased dramatically in 2005, reaching $106.5 billion, up from $79.6 billion in 2004. Expressed as a share of gross national income (GNI) in donor countries, ODA has risen from 0.22 percent in 2001 to 0.33 percent in 2005, just below the 0.34 percent peak reached in the early 1990s. However, most of the record $27 billion increase in 2005 reflects debt relief provided by Paris Club creditors to Iraq (nearly $14 billion) and Nigeria (a little over $5 billion). Nevertheless, even excluding debt relief, ODA rose by 8.7 percent in real terms, up from a 5.6 percent average annual increase over 2002–4. ODA is likely to decline as a percentage of GNI in 2006–7, as the debt relief component falls to more normal levels, before increasing gradually through the end of the decade. Donors have made commitments to increase ODA by $50 billion by 2010, half of which is targeted to go to Sub-Saharan Africa. Based on those commitments, ODA should reach 0.36 percent of GNI in 2010. Extrapolating this rate of increase would mean that the UN target of 0.7 percent would not be attained until 2030, 15 years after the 2015 deadline set for attaining the MDGs. The international community made significant progress in 2005 to reduce debt burdens in some of the poorest countries. Debt relief provided under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Reduction Initiative (MDRI) will significantly reduce the

8

debt burdens of poor countries that qualify. The 18 countries that reached the completion point prior to May 2006, under the HIPC Initiative, will see their total debt stock fall from an average level of 55 percent of GDP (before HIPC debt relief) to 13 percent (after MDRI debt relief). Debt relief together with other special-purpose grants—for technical cooperation, emergency and disaster relief, and administrative costs—has accounted for a rising portion of ODA over the past few years. The increase in ODA as a share of GNI since 2001 reflects higher special purposes, rather than more flexible forms of funding. Donors have reallocated aid to the poorest countries, particularly those in Africa, and have continued to shift their resources from concessional loans to grants, with the goal of avoiding unsustainable increases in the debt burdens of aid recipients.

To ensure economic stability, developing countries must manage capital flows effectively

T

he current surge in private capital flows has occurred in the midst of much-improved domestic policies and global financial conditions compared with those that prevailed during the capital flows surge of the 1990s. This time around, governments have so far generally managed to avoid excessive expansion of aggregate demand, large current-account deficits, and sharp appreciations of the real exchange rate. However, the policy agenda for managing capital flows is broad and complex, and considerable challenges remain.

Effective macroeconomic policies The improved response to the surge in capital flows this time around has been supported by the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes and a monetary policy framework that favors price stability. Inflation has fallen dramatically in virtually all developing countries, from a median of 11 percent in the mid-1990s to a median of 4.5 percent during 2002–5. At the same time, the greater autonomy in monetary policy afforded by more flexible exchange rates has allowed authorities to lower local interest rates. Flexible exchange rates and lower interest rates have drastically reduced the incentive to resort to short-term exter-

O V E R V I E W

nal borrowing, a major vulnerability that contributed to the financial crises of the 1990s. Governments also have taken steps to accelerate development of domestic capital markets (especially local bond markets) to create more diversified financial markets that would be more capable of handling volatile flows in portfolio capital. These developments, along with the shift from debt finance to equity (particularly FDI), have contributed to the marked improvement in developing countries’ net external liability position. The ratio of external debt to GNI for developing countries as a whole fell from a peak of 44 percent in 1999 to about 34 percent in 2004, while since the mid1990s short-term debt has declined in most developing countries relative to long-term debt and foreign exchange reserves. Progress has been made in simplifying the very complex web of capital controls and exchange rate restrictions imposed by many countries. But the gradual opening of capital accounts must be accompanied by a further strengthening of macroeconomic policies, the development of local capital markets and the institutions needed to regulate them, and the establishment of a system of risk management robust enough to respond to the needs of a more flexible exchange rate and open capital account. Liberalization of the capital account once implemented is difficult to reverse. A return to capital controls should be seen only as a policy of last resort, to be used to dampen excessive exchange rate volatility or to moderate large inflows of capital when other policies, such as interest rates and intervention in foreign exchange markets, prove fruitless. Despite the considerable improvement in policies in recent years, the surge in capital flows still presents substantial risks to developing countries. Future risks to economic and financial stability will likely take a different form and character than those encountered in the past—and may expose institutional and macroeconomic weaknesses that cannot be anticipated at this juncture. One warning sign of potential troubles has been the surge in portfolio inflows that has been associated with a dramatic escalation of stock market prices and valuations in many developing countries, particularly in Asia, raising the risk of asset price bubbles. Other signs of possible trouble are appreciated exchange rates and current account deficits in some

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Eastern European countries. The impact of individual risks could be magnified if several were to occur simultaneously.

Prudent accumulation of reserves The current account in many developing countries, particularly major oil exporters and emerging Asia, has moved from deficit to sizable surplus, intensifying the demand for reserve accumulation. That many of these countries have accumulated foreign exchange reserves far in excess of the level required for intervention and liquidity purposes partly reflects a desire to self-insure against global financial shocks. As the volume of reserves increases, however, so does the importance of balancing their use for intervention, investment, and insurance purposes against their domestic resource costs. For countries with large holdings of foreign exchange reserves, allowing local institutional investors to diversify their investment portfolio globally—while ensuring their more effective regulation—could provide a viable channel of capital outflow, as well as an opportunity to further diversify risk. This would transfer currency risks, currently concentrated on the books of central banks, to domestic institutional investors with a longer investment horizon and a greater ability to manage such risks. Such an approach is also more desirable for many developing countries than inducing adjustments through the current account as a way of absorbing reserves. In addition to allowing institutional investors greater scope to invest overseas, consideration should be given to enabling local residents to invest in approved international assets, as the Republic of Korea has done.

Careful management of oil-export revenues Oil-exporting countries face particular challenges in managing volatile export revenues. Although high oil prices are now expected to persist, considerable uncertainty remains, and oil exporters should save a part of the windfall—for example, to reduce debt and make productive physical and social investments. Some countries have put aside a fraction of their oil revenues in a stable portfolio of diversified financial assets (referred to as “funds for the future”), thus reducing the risk of overconsumption of oil revenues and the potential for Dutch disease. Such funds require robust governance and legal frameworks to effectively insulate

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earmarked oil wealth from political decisions guided by short-term agendas. The government must set and adhere to clear objectives for their investment, protection, and eventual use. Countries that depend heavily on oil revenues should also consider using derivatives to reduce the volatility of future income.

Improvements in standards for the corporate sector A growing number of developing countries have made considerable efforts to meet international standards for transparency, corporate governance, and the regulation and supervision of financial systems. Although this is a global trend, individual countries take different approaches to adapting international standards to their corporate environment. Some, for example, are issuing codes that set compliance targets in tandem with laws setting minimum compulsory standards, while others are using codes to raise public awareness in advance of upcoming regulatory reform. The adoption of national codes of corporate governance in at least 60 countries by the end of 2005—including all of the Asian crisis countries, plus China, Colombia, Turkey, and Ukraine—underscores the growing recognition of the importance of corporate governance in enhancing investor confidence, a recognition that bolsters the resilience and stability of capital markets globally. Priority must now be given to effectively implementing and enforcing these new domestic policy and institutional reforms at the national level.

Multilateral cooperation is key to resolving global financial imbalances

D

eveloping-country policies must be reinforced by renewed international efforts to promote stability and maintain a financial environment conducive to a balanced expansion and deployment of capital flows in developing countries. One major risk to stability is the growing imbalance in global payments and the associated market anxiety about the possibility of a disorderly adjustment of the imbalance through sudden changes in exchange rates and global interest rates. Such changes could desta-

10

bilize and disrupt international financial markets, which would cause all countries to suffer. Although a coordinated policy of intervention in foreign currency markets—similar to the Plaza Agreement of September 1985—is neither desirable nor feasible (given the changes in global financial market conditions and actors over the past two decades); a degree of multilateral cooperation is needed to address the current global imbalances. That approach, based on the mutual interests of deficit and surplus countries, should reflect the structural asymmetry between international reserve currencies and other currencies. At its center must be consensus on a blend of exchange rate and aggregate spending adjustments adequate to rebalance global aggregate demand toward surplus countries without causing a global recession. Ordinarily, policy coordination among key players is unnecessary, because floating exchange rates, accompanying monetary policies (oriented primarily toward domestic targets for inflation and economic activity), and independent central banks do their job to facilitate adjustment to any shocks hitting the world economy. But when the sustainability of the sources of finance for global payment imbalances is in doubt, as it is at present, multilateral cooperation to prevent sudden and disorderly market reactions becomes highly desirable, especially if the growing global imbalances create pressure for protectionist trade policies in some countries. Developing countries, in particular, have much to gain from multilateral cooperation, and much to lose from its absence, and they would suffer disproportionately if instability were induced and a disorderly unwinding of global financial imbalances ensued. The world economy is moving toward a multipolar international monetary system in which the monetary and financial policies of the United States, Euro Area, Japan, and several key emerging market economies, including China, all exert substantial influence. Policymakers in emerging market economies should therefore strive to strengthen institutions and promote policies and mechanisms that will improve their ability to navigate in a world of increasingly integrated and interdependent financial and production systems.

.

1 Prospects for the Global Economy

Summary of the outlook

C

onfronted with capacity constraints in the resource sector, sharp rises in commodity prices, and a tightening of monetary policy among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, the global economy has slowed from the record pace posted in 2004. Nevertheless growth remains robust, especially among developing countries. Their GDP increased 6.4 percent in 2005 (4.3 percent for oil-importing developing economies, excluding India and China) as compared with 2.8 percent among high-income countries. The resilience of developing countries— which reflects a sustained improvement in the potential growth rate of many developing countries— has been heartening, especially given the magnitude of the oil-price shock. This brisk expansion is projected to continue, but slow towards a more sustainable pace of 5.9 percent by 2008. Such rapid growth argues against a sharp decline in oil prices, which are expected to remain above or close to $60 a barrel through 2008. This relatively benign soft-landing scenario for developing countries faces both internal and external risks. First, the high growth of the past several years is generating tensions within individual countries. In several East European countries this has taken the form of rising inflation, currency appreciation, and high current-account deficits, while in others it has expressed itself in rising asset prices, inflationary pressure, and growing domestic tensions between fast and slower growing regions and sectors. Second, many of the buffers that permitted countries to absorb higher oil prices with a minimum of disruption have been exhausted, and countries have yet to fully adjust to

higher oil prices. As a result, developing countries are much more vulnerable to potential external shocks, such as a disruptive resolution of global imbalances, a decline in nonoil commodity prices, or a hike in oil prices following a supply shock.

High oil prices have had only a limited impact on global growth Lower oil intensities, more flexible product and labor markets, exchange rate flexibility, and more credible monetary policy have all reduced the realside and inflationary impacts of higher oil prices. As a result, and in contrast to past episodes, monetary policy has remained accommodative and interest rates low. This, plus the fact that oil deliveries have continued to increase rapidly (as opposed to the 1970s and 1980s, when supply was cut), helps explain the resilience of output to higher oil prices. An additional factor for developing countries has been the substantial rise in the share of exports in GDP, which has increased the foreign currency inflows available to finance a given increase in the oil bill. Adjustment was facilitated by solid initial conditions. In particular, many oil-importing developing countries entered the period of high oil prices running current-account surpluses and building up foreign currency reserves. This, plus high nonoil commodity prices and a rapid expansion in trade, meant that finding foreign currency to pay higher oil bills was relatively easy. In addition, foreign currency inflows for the poorest countries were bolstered by increasing aid flows, which in many cases rose by more than 0.5 percent of GDP in 2004 (the last year for which data is available). While output has remained resilient, developing countries nevertheless have endured a large hit

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on their incomes. On average, the rise in oil prices between 2003 and 2005 reduced real incomes in oil-importing countries by 3.6 percent and by as much as 10 percent for some low-income oil importers. For developing oil importers the additional expenditure, some $137 billion annually, exceeds by a large margin official development assistance (ODA, $84 billion in 2005 net of additional debt relief) and is about one-half of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows ($234 billion). Unsurprisingly, some countries are having difficulty adjusting. Fiscal deficits have risen alarmingly in several countries that subsidize domestic energy prices. In many African countries, utility firms, unable to pay mounting energy bills, have imposed rolling blackouts. Moreover, a few countries appear to be financing their higher oil bill through an unsustainably rapid reduction in international reserves. Finally, rising food and transportation prices have pushed inflation to worrisome levels in several countries in Africa and, to a lesser extent, South Asia. While it is not clear that an inflationary spiral has begun, an eventual economic slowdown appears likely if policy makers are forced to use macro policy measures to bring inflation back under control.

Developing countries face further adjustment challenges over the medium term While the resilience of output to high oil prices is heartening, the initially comfortable current-account positions that allowed many developing countries to weather higher oil prices have now been absorbed. Moreover, many of the factors that allowed countries to deal with higher oil prices relatively easily in the short run imply that much real-side adjustment has yet to occur. Adapting to more or less permanently higher prices poses substantial challenges, especially for those countries where high oil prices are already generating economic strain, as evidenced by excessive increases in current-account or fiscal deficits or by unsustainable financing of oil import bills through the depletion of reserves or bank borrowing. Policy makers in these countries must take urgent steps to increase energy efficiency in general and reduce oil dependency in particular. Unwinding energy subsidization programs would simultaneously relieve pressure on government finances and also promote private sector energy conservation. For those countries that have managed the

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recent rise in oil prices more easily, similar policy steps would reduce their vulnerability both to further oil shocks and other shocks, including a decline in nonoil commodity prices. For countries benefiting from fixed-price contracts at what are currently below-market prices, policy should encourage energy conservation now before the contracts expire or are renegotiated. More generally, because higher prices are likely to be a more or less permanent fixture, countries need to take steps to improve their international competitiveness. Policies that stimulate productivity growth and investment in the domestic economy are most likely to be successful. Countries with flexible exchange regimes are likely to have more success in improving their export revenues and diminishing nonoil imports so as to reestablish a comfortable margin on the current account. Trade reform—domestic, behind-the-border reforms to improve competitiveness, accompanied by progress at the multilateral level—could further expand developing-country exports and the base upon which oil and other imports essential to development can be financed. For oil exporters the challenge will be to use petroleum revenues in a way that minimizes economic distortions and maximizes development gain. Even if oil prices remain high for an extended period, most countries do not have the capacity to absorb these huge inflows immediately. As a result, they should resist the temptation to use oil-related budgetary revenues for programs that are politically popular but developmentally unsound. Instead, they should consider introducing or expanding oil funds by sequestering that part of revenues that cannot be productively placed in the domestic market and investing it abroad, where it will generate a permanent income stream to support development even after current prices ease or oil supplies dwindle. Recent steps by some oil-exporting countries that have unwound structural reforms for short-term political gain are unlikely to be helpful.

Global imbalances may have been exacerbated by high oil prices The rapid rise in oil prices has contributed to global imbalances by increasing the U.S. currentaccount deficit by some $125 billion since 2002. It also has changed the nature of those imbalances by inducing a swing in the counterparts to the U.S. deficit away from oil importers and toward

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oil-exporting countries. Their oil-related export earnings are up some $400 billion since 2002. These are being recycled—partly through increased imports, approximately 65 percent of additional export revenues are being spent as additional imports, and partly via financial flows. As a result, there is little likelihood that an excess in oil exporters’ savings will lead to a global slowdown. Rather, increased financial flows—either directly or through third-party intermediaries, are contributing to low interest rates and, both directly and indirectly, to the financing of the U.S. currentaccount deficit. Despite the ease with which the U.S. deficit is being financed, the continued accumulation of foreign liabilities is not sustainable. Unwinding these imbalances will almost certainly take a long time. Indeed, given the magnitude of the required adjustment, a gradual approach is to be preferred to an abrupt one. However, the longer significant steps to resolve the issue are delayed the greater will be the tensions implicit in the disequilibrium and the risk that they will be resolved in a disorderly manner. Of particular concern is that some of the temporary factors holding down interest rates (including corporate balance-sheet restructuring and financial flows from oil revenues) will ease, increasing the servicing costs on U.S. liabilities. That would add to the deficit and possibly raise concerns about its sustainability, driving interest rates even higher. Resolving these imbalances is a common but differentiated responsibility requiring increased private and public savings in the United States, increased demand outside of the United States, and more flexible exchange rate management. Action on all fronts is required, particularly because in the absence of higher U.S. savings, increased foreign demand or exchange rate appreciation is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on imbalances.

The outlook for developing countries carries both internal and external risks Prospects for a soft landing among developing countries are good, but a hard landing is also possible. In particular, many countries, notably in the Europe and Central Asia region, now have currentaccount deficits that exceed 5 or 6 percent of GDP. In some instances those deficits are associated with high interest rates, strong capital inflows, and appreciating currencies. The future ability of these

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economies to finance current levels of consumption and investment is vulnerable to changes in investor confidence or additional external shocks. Elsewhere, rapidly rising incomes may be contributing to asset bubbles in regional real estate and stock markets. In other countries, tensions arising from localized labor market shortages, combined with significant disparity in the degree to which regions or segments of the population are benefiting from growth, could prompt a harder-than-projected landing. These internal risks could generate a hard landing on their own or they could be triggered by and exacerbate an external shock. In particular, growth in several countries in South Asia and a few in Latin America is generating significant inflationary pressures requiring a tightening of macroeconomic policy if an abrupt slowdown in the future is to be avoided. The principal external risks to the global economy have not changed much since the publication of the last edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects (2005). These include the possibility that persistent global imbalances will resolve themselves in a disorderly manner, either through a significant increase in interest rates or a sharp depreciation of the dollar; the possibility that a significant supply shock will send oil prices even higher; and the possibility that nonoil commodity prices will weaken. Should any of these risks be realized, they might reduce global growth by between 1 and 3 percent, depending on the shock, with much of the slowdown borne by developing economies. Even if the impact of the shock is relatively benign at the global level, the increased current-account deficits of many oil-importing developing countries make them vulnerable. For heavily indebted countries, the most serious risk stems from the possibility of higher interest rates. For small oil-importing African countries, the largest risk is that nonoil commodity prices, particularly for metals and minerals, will decline. The outturn from the Doha trade liberalization round poses a balanced risk to the outlook. The baseline scenario assumes an unambitious accord. However, an ambitious conclusion to the Round, including significant liberalization of trade in agricultural products and on-the-ground progress in the aid-for-trade agenda, could yield substantial benefits for developing countries. More importantly, a failure of Doha could go beyond this agreement by weakening the whole multilateral

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trade liberalization process—resulting in a more fragmented path forward with fewer benefits for developing countries.

While a remote possibility, an influenza pandemic could have serious consequences The continued spread of avian influenza (bird flu) among wild birds, with limited bird-to-human transmission, comprises part of the baseline forecast. A serious risk to the global economy is presented by the possibility that avian influenza mutates into a form of the flu that is easily transmitted between humans and to which the population has only limited immunity. The potential human and economic consequences of such a pandemic are very large. They depend importantly on the nature of the flu that emerges and on the reactions of people as it spreads. Even a relatively moderate flu in terms of transmission and mortality could have serious consequences for the world economy if the global population has limited immunity. Estimates suggest that, depending upon the severity of the eventual disease, a combination of lost output due to illness, additional deaths, absenteeism, and private and public efforts to avoid infection could lower global GDP by between 2 and 5 percent (with the latter number implying a global recession). More important, between 14 and 70 million people could be killed. Policy makers need to focus simultaneously on two critical tasks: (1) further strengthening efforts to monitor and curtail outbreaks of avian influenza at points (such as domestic poultry flocks) where the likelihood is highest of the disease mutating into a viable human-to-human form; and (2) developing and putting systems in place to minimize the human cost of a pandemic if one does emerge, whether by developing effective containment strategies or improving the world’s capacity to rapidly create and distribute vaccines.

Outturns and prospects in high-income countries Growth among industrialized economies in 2005 came in at 2.8 percent, substantially lower than the 3.3 percent recorded the year before. Industrial production and trade flows among these countries were particularly anemic. Industrial production growth declined from more than 5 percent in mid2004 to less than 1 percent in late spring. Growth has since accelerated, reaching 3 percent (yearover-year) in the first quarter of 2006 (figure 1.1). High oil prices, rising short-term interest rates, a cooling of the housing market, and an unusually disruptive hurricane season helped slow growth in the United States to 3.5 percent in 2005 as compared with 4.2 percent in 2004. Partly reflecting a bounce-back in activity following a weak fourth quarter, GDP expanded 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2006. Although inflation Figure 1.1 Industrial production remains robust % change in volumes year-over-year 10

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Developing countries (ex. China)

18 16

5

14 0

High-income countries

–5

12 10

China (right axis)

8 6

–10 2000

4 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: World Bank.

Figure 1.2 Inflation in high-income countries % change, year-over-year 5 U.S. all goods and services 4 EU all goods and services 3

Global growth

D

espite oil prices that reached $60 a barrel in the second half of the year, the world economy grew by a very robust 3.6 percent in 2005. Developing countries led the way, expanding by 6.4 percent, more than twice as fast as high-income countries (table 1.1).

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2 1 0 Jan. 2002

EU core inflation

U.S. core inflation July 2002

Jan. 2003

July 2003

Jan. 2004

Sources: World Bank, Datastream.

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Jan. 2005

July 2005

Jan. 2006

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Table 1.1 The global outlook in summary % change from previous year, except interest rates and oil prices

Global conditions World trade volume Consumer prices G-7 countriesa,b United States Commodity prices (US$ terms) Non-oil commodities Oil price (US$ per barrel)c Oil price (% change) Manufactures unit export valued Interest rates $, 6-month (%) €, 6-month (%) Real GDP growthe World Memo item: World (PPP weights)f High-income countries OECD Countries Euro Area Japan United States Non-OECD countries Developing countries East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Memorandum items Developing countries excluding transition countries excluding China and India

2004

2005*

2006**

2007**

2008**

10.6

7.1

7.6

7.7

7.8

2.1 2.7

2.6 3.4

2.2 2.9

1.8 1.9

1.8 2.0

17.5 37.7 30.6 6.9

13.4 53.4 41.5 0.8

5.8 64.2 20.2 1.6

–3.2 61.0 –5.0 2.8

–5.8 56.9 –6.8 1.2

1.6 2.1

3.6 2.2

5.1 2.6

5.2 3.1

4.9 3.9

4.1 5.3 3.3 3.2 2.0 2.7 4.2 6.2 7.1 9.1 7.2 6.0 4.7 6.7 5.2

3.6 4.6 2.8 2.7 1.4 2.8 3.5 5.5 6.4 8.8 5.7 4.4 4.8 7.7 5.2

3.7 4.6 3.0 2.9 2.1 2.8 3.5 5.1 6.3 8.3 5.5 4.6 5.3 6.8 5.4

3.5 4.5 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.0 8.2 5.4 4.0 5.2 6.5 4.9

3.5 4.5 2.8 2.8 2.2 1.8 3.3 4.7 5.9 8.1 5.1 3.7 5.1 6.2 5.4

7.2 6.1

6.6 5.0

6.4 5.1

6.1 4.8

6.0 4.5

Source: World Bank. Note: PPP = purchasing power parity; * = estimate; ** = forecast. a. Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. b. In local currency, aggregated using 2000 GDP Weights. c. Simple average of Dubai, Brent and West Texas Intermediate. d. Unit value index of manufactured exports from major economies, expressed in US$. e. GDP in 2000 constant dollars; 2000 prices and market exchange rates. f. GDP mesaured at 2000 PPP weights.

spiked following Katrina-related increases in gasoline prices, it has since declined and remains relatively muted at 3.4 percent in March 2006. Core inflation (price changes of goods and services other than energy and food) remains low at 2.1 percent, below the rate recorded in December 2004 (figure 1.2). The relatively low oil intensity of European economies, significant excess capacity, and a relaxed macroeconomic policy stance limited the slowdown in Europe. For the year as a whole, growth was a relatively weak 1.5 percent (1.4 percent for the Euro Area), but this reflected a fourth-

quarter pause in exports following a strong acceleration in the first nine months of the year. Since then economic activity has picked up with GDP in the Euro Area estimated to have increased by around 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2006. In Japan, growth has been strong, with industrial production ending the year up 5 percent and unemployment declining to 4.4 percent of the labor force. Overall, GDP increased by 2.8 percent, with both domestic and external demand contributing about equally to the overall result. As a result, both consumer and business confidence have improved.

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The increase in oil prices in 2005 and early 2006 are expected to slow growth in high-income countries by about 0.25 of a percentage point in 2006 compared with what it would have been had prices remained stable. In the United States, improved net exports are projected to maintain the pace of growth in 2006, despite weaker consumer demand due to higher interest rates and a cooling of the housing market. For 2007/8, the balance of these forces is expected to reverse somewhat, leading to a moderate easing of growth. Continued accommodative macroeconomic policy and pent-up investment demand following several years of very weak growth should maintain the recent acceleration of output in Europe during 2006. As a result, GDP is projected to expand by about 2.1 percent in 2006 and to continue growing at close to its potential rate in 2007/8. In Japan, vigorous growth in developing East Asia, renewed consumer and business confidence, and reduced drag from consolidation are all expected to keep the recovery strong in 2006. While the economy is projected to slow somewhat (partly because of less expansionary monetary and fiscal policies), GDP should expand at or above the economy’s potential rate of growth.

Developing economy outturns and prospects Notwithstanding high oil prices, economies in every developing region continued to grow at above-trend rates in 2005. Overall, the GDP of low- and middle-income countries expanded by an estimated 6.4 percent. The expansion was particularly robust in China and India, where output increased by 9.9 and about 8.0 percent, respectively. Excluding these countries, growth in other oil-importing developing countries came in at an estimated 4.3 percent, down significantly from 5.7 percent in 2004. At the same time, dwindling spare capacity in the petroleum sector caused the expansion of oil-exporting developing economies to ease from 6.6 to 5.7 percent, even though oil revenues continued to rise. High oil prices, rising interest rates, and building inflationary pressures are expected to restrain growth in most developing regions in 2006/8 (figure 1.3). As a group, however, lowand middle-income countries should again outperform high-income economies by a wide margin. Growth in five of the six developing regions

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Figure 1.3 Developing-country growth remains robust GDP growth 8 7

Developing countries

6 World

5 4 3 2 1

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: World Bank.

is projected to exceed 5 percent through 2008, with the Latin America and Caribbean region projected to expand 4.1 percent on average over the projection period.

Regional outlooks More detailed descriptions of economic developments in developing regions, including regional forecast summaries, are available at http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.

East Asia and the Pacific1 The economies of the East Asia and Pacific region continued to expand rapidly in 2005. Their GDP is estimated to have increased by 8.8 percent, down from 9.1 percent in 2004 (figure 1.4). Growth in China was very strong (9.9 percent), despite a substantial slowing in both private consumption and investment demand, because exports continued to grow rapidly, and imports slowed. For other countries in the region, output expanded by a more modest 5.3 percent, as the slowdown in Chinese imports, weak global high-tech demand, and elevated oil prices translated into reduced export growth and rapidly rising producer prices. Among larger oil-importing countries in the region, GDP growth slowed relatively sharply in the Philippines and Thailand. Among oil-exporters, growth slowed in Malaysia, but picked up in Vietnam and Indonesia. Strong exports and weak import demand in China meant that the region’s current-account bal-

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Figure 1.4 Regional growth trends % change, GDP 10

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 East Asia & Pacific

Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Oil exporters

Oil importers (ex. China)

Source: World Bank.

ance improved, reaching a surplus of $143 billion (4.9 percent of GDP). Of the larger economies, only Thailand and Vietnam are running current-account deficits, while the surpluses of China and Malaysia exceed 6 and 15 percent of their respective GDP. Output in the region continues to feel the effects of endemic bird-to-bird avian influenza. Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam are the countries most affected. So far some 200 million domestic birds (less than 1 percent of domestic bird production in the region but rising to 12 percent in Vietnam) have died or been killed to prevent the spread of the disease. As of early May 2006 no new outbreaks have been recorded among birds in Thailand and Vietnam, attesting to the effectiveness of preventive measures. However, new outbreaks have been recorded in China, East Java, Indonesia, Malaysia and Myanmar2. While the disease has had only a limited effect on GDP so far (depending on the country, the sector represents between 0.6 to 2 percent of GDP), its impact on incomes has likely been more acute. Poultry accounts for as much as 7 percent of the incomes of the poor. As higher oil prices take hold, reduced investment growth in China and reduced global liquidity are expected to slow regional growth to around 8.1 percent by 2008. This reflects a modest slowdown in China, as slower export growth is partially offset by stronger domestic demand. Excluding China, growth in the remaining economies in the region is expected to come in at about 5.5 percent in 2006 through 2008. Stronger domestic demand, terms of

trade effects and some currency appreciation are projected to result in about a $25 billion decline in the region’s current-account surplus.

Europe and Central Asia Economic activity in the Europe and Central Asia region grew by a robust 5.7 percent in 2005. High oil prices boosted demand in the region’s oil producers, particularly in the Russian Federation, where real GDP increased 6.4 percent. That, in turn, contributed to strong exports for other countries in the region, notably the Baltics and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Turkey and other Central European countries participated in the export boom to a lesser extent, as they reoriented exports away from a still weak European Union. The region received record capital inflows in 2005, reflecting favorable international credit conditions and the advancing EU accession process for new and candidate members. These flows contributed to rapid credit growth in the Baltics, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine, and a significant deterioration in current-account positions. High oil prices, substantial increases in the price paid for imported natural gas in some countries, and lax fiscal policy in the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Poland also boosted current-account deficits. About half of the region’s economies posted current-account deficits equal to or in excess of 5 percent of GDP in 2005. Current-account deficits exceeded 6 percent of GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Turkey.

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At the regional level these deficits were significantly offset by improved external positions of oil exporters, including Azerbaijan, where the deficit shifted from a 30 percent share of GDP in 2004 to 5 percent in 2005, as new oil capacity came on stream. This also propelled Azerbaijan’s growth to more than 25 percent. GDP growth is projected to slow slightly in 2006, coming in at 5.5 percent, as tighter international credit conditions and monetary policy are expected to slow domestic growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) subregion. Elevated energy revenues, investment expenditure, and the projected recovery of western European demand are expected to sustain growth at relatively high levels in 2007/8. High fiscal and current-account deficits in a number of countries, including Hungary and Turkey, pose serious risks to the outlook. For regional oil exporters, key challenges include the need to foster greater investment and productive capacity in the nonoil sectors so as to improve economic diversification, control inflation, and prevent excessive exchange rate appreciation.

Latin America and the Caribbean Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean is estimated to have increased by some 4.4 percent during 2005. Outturns were strong throughout the region, reflecting high levels of international liquidity, strong global demand, and high prices for the region’s exports. Macroeconomic policy has also played a role. Except in Brazil and Mexico, where rising interest rates contributed to a slowdown in 2005, monetary policy in the region has been generally accommodative. Fiscal policy, in turn, has been relatively neutral. Despite windfall revenues from high international commodity prices and reduced debt servicing charges (due to reduced interest rates and lower debt stocks) most countries, with the notable exception of República Bolivariana de Venezuela, have avoided a significant pro-cyclical surge in spending. As a result, government deficits in the region have declined and “structural” balances actually improved in some countries. Nevertheless, structural rigidities in public expenditures remain an issue in a number of countries. Increases in coffee, sugar, and metal prices largely offset the effect of higher oil prices and lower agricultural prices (notably soybeans) in

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many countries. High nonoil commodity prices and strong inflows of remittance prevented most countries in the region from experiencing a significant deterioration in their current-account positions. Indeed, with a few exceptions (Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay), the current-account balances of most countries in the region have either remained constant or improved since 2002. These favorable external conditions contributed to a general pressure toward exchange rate appreciation that has been checked by accumulation of international reserves. Looking forward, regional growth is projected to pick up in 2006 as easier monetary policy boosts output in Mexico and Brazil. Growth in most countries in the region is expected to be broadly stable in 2007 and 2008, slowing only somewhat in the face of a modest weakening in commodity prices and a gradual moderation in capital inflows. However, the expansion for the region as a whole is projected to slow toward 3.7 percent in 2008, reflecting a significant slowing in Argentina and República Bolivariana de Venezuela toward more sustainable growth rates. Growth trends in Central American countries are projected to improve, partly because of the recent Central American Free Trade Agreement. The agreement should boost both trade (the United States is these countries’ major trading partner) and investment, thereby lifting longer-term growth prospects. However, to reap the full benefits of this reform, further steps need to be taken towards improving road quality, increasing port and customs efficiency, boosting financial depth, and raising the quality and coverage of education. A central risk to this forecast remains the possibility that as growth slows and commodity prices ease, government deficits will rise, potentially raising inflation or increasing uncertainty. Either result could lead to higher-than-projected interest rates and slower growth.

Middle East and North Africa3 High oil prices and strong oil demand continue to be key drivers for the developing economies of the Middle East and North Africa4, where GDP is estimated to have increased by 4.8 percent in 2005. A 40 percent increase in oil revenues, to some $250 billion or (66 percent of their GDP), boosted public spending in oil-exporting developing countries in the region, causing their GDP to expand by 5.3

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percent. This had spillover effects for the region’s oil importers in the form of strong exports, tourism revenues, and inflows of investment and remittances. All of these factors helped to sustain robust growth among regional oil importers (4.2 percent), despite higher oil-import bills and relatively weak demand in Europe. Looking forward, high oil prices are expected to continue feeding domestic demand in oil-producing countries—outstripping domestic supply and causing imports to continue rising rapidly, even as growth of export revenues slows. As a result, GDP in developing oil-exporting countries should expand by 5.2 percent in 2006 before slowing to around 4.8 percent in 2008. Their current-account surpluses should decline from around 20 percent of GDP in 2005 to about 8 percent of GDP in 2008. In the oil-importing economies, growth is expected to accelerate to about 5.3 percent, supported by stronger European growth, continued exports of goods and services to regional oil exporters, and a weaker negative effect from the reduction in textile and clothing quotas. Prospects for the region remain clouded by geopolitical developments. For the region as a whole, western investors’ risk perceptions have worsened. For the moment, this has been offset by an intraregional recycling of oil revenues, which has contributed to a sharp inflation in asset prices.

South Asia Strong external demand and private consumption growth, supported by generally accommodative monetary policies, spurred growth in South Asia to a very robust 7.7 percent in 2005, led by India and Pakistan, which both expanded by about 8 percent. Excluding these two countries, regional growth was still a strong 5.3 percent. Robust regional clothing exports following the removal of quotas helped limit the overall deterioration of the current account, the deficit of which is estimated at 2.6 percent of regional GDP in 2005. Despite some efforts to raise retail energy prices, higher oil prices have not been completely passed through to consumers. Nevertheless, inflationary pressures in the region have been building. Consumer prices rose 9.1 percent in 2005 as compared with 3.6 percent in 2003. To a significant degree, higher inflation reflects fluctuations in food prices. However, rapid growth, particularly strong domestic demand in response to a relaxed

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monetary policy stance in both India and Pakistan also played a role. Because higher oil prices have not been passed through fully, there remains significant latent inflationary pressure from this source. In addition, implicit energy subsidies have raised fiscal deficits by as much as 0.7 percent of GDP between 2002 and 2005, apparently crowding out spending on education and health care in India (Devarajan and Ghani 2006).5 Moreover, by impeding the price mechanism from restraining energy demand, the pass-through policy (along with robust domestic demand) has contributed to a deterioration equal to 4.0 percent of GDP in the region’s currentaccount balance since 2003. Growth is projected to weaken to about 6.8 percent in 2006, reflecting continued above trend growth in Pakistan and India. However, domestic capacity constraints and rising inflation are projected to cause growth to decline to a more sustainable 6.2 percent by 2008. Notwithstanding this cyclical slowdown, growth is projected to remain robust with investment in both India and Pakistan expected to continue to benefit from strong external and domestic interest. This, plus a four-year infrastructure project (Build India) valued at 5 percent of GDP, are projected to augment capacity and support demand over the projection period. The services sector in India is expected to continue expanding rapidly, as a result of strong FDI inflows and outsourcing. Export growth throughout the region should remain strong, despite slower growth in the United States, partly because of increased demand from Europe. Solid domestic demand should cause the current-account deficit to grow further, reaching around 3.5 percent of GDP in 2006 before improving somewhat as demand slows.

Sub-Saharan Africa GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa expanded by an estimated 5.2 percent in 2005, bolstered by robust growth in resource-rich countries. Indeed, oilexporting economies grew an estimated 6.4 percent in 2005, while growth in South Africa came in at 4.9 percent, lifted by high metal prices, strong consumer confidence, and low nominal interest rates. Economic activity in small oil-importing economies expanded by a slower but still robust 4.3 percent, down from 4.7 percent in 2004.

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This strong performance marks a sharp departure from the weak and relatively volatile growth recorded by the region in the 1980s and 1990s. 2005 was the fifth year in a row that regional growth was at least 3.5 percent, and ended the first 5 year period since the 1960s that per capita growth remained positive in every year. Hearteningly this improved performance reflects stronger growth by many countries rather than very fast growth by a few. More than half of Sub-Saharan African countries have grown by 4 percent or more on average during the past five years, compared with fewer than one-quarter during the period 1980–95.6 Better subsistence and cash crops bolstered agricultural incomes and industrial production in many West African countries, while performance in East Africa was also good, despite drought in some areas. High metal prices bolstered growth in small resource-rich oil-importing economies. The current-account position of oil exporters improved significantly because of higher oil revenues. However, external balances in many oilimporting countries have come under pressure. Excluding South Africa, the current-account position of oil importers deteriorated by 2.8 percentage points in 2005, reaching 6.4 percent of GDP. In Ghana, for example, the current-account deficit is estimated to have more than doubled to reach 6.8 percent of GDP, while in Tanzania it surged close to 6.2 percent of GDP. In several other countries, a failure to fully pass through higher prices has placed fiscal accounts under serious strain (Madagascar, Mauritius, Rwanda, and Uganda) or forced utilities to ration energy consumption by imposing rolling electrical blackouts (Madagascar, Malawi). Looking forward, growth in established oilexporting countries is projected to average more than 6 percent as new oil production is expected to come online in Angola, Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Sudan. Moreover, Mauritania and São Tomé and Principe are expected to begin exporting oil in 2006. Small oil importers are also expected to do well, with growth remaining at about 4.5 percent in 2008 as many countries benefit from debt writeoffs and increased aid flows. Madagascar, Tanzania, and Uganda are expected to continue to profit from prudent macroeconomic policies and reforms implemented in previous years. In contrast, growth in sugar and textile producers (Lesotho,

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Mauritius, and Swaziland) is expected to weaken as European sugar preferences are withdrawn, while strong competition from low-cost textile producers in China and South Asia will continue to be a drag on regional exports. Continued rapid expansion in South Africa is expected to spill over into the Southern Africa Development Community. A more peaceful and stable sociopolitical environment will serve to accelerate growth in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and several other countries. On the other hand, should low-level conflicts, in places such as Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and the Sudan escalate, they could bring down regional growth to a significant degree.

Commodity markets The oil market The sharp rise in oil prices since 2003,7 which was driven by strong demand and dwindling spare capacity, showed signs of ending toward the end of 2005. Beginning in September 2005, the trend rise in oil prices marked a pause, with barrel prices fluctuating around $63. However, the market remains tight, and the pricing power of OPEC has increased. As a result, prices are volatile, and sensitive to small changes in perceptions such as concerns over future supply, which sent barrel prices toward the $73 mark in early May 2006, before declining once again (figure 1.5). Oil demand slowed to 0.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) in the second half of 2005, from 3.5 mbpd in the first half of 2004 (figure 1.6). While slower GDP growth played a role in this decline, the most important factor appears to have been higher oil prices. Econometric models suggest that

Figure 1.5 An end to the trend rise in oil prices? World Bank average, oil, $ per barrel May 15, 2006

75 65 55 45 35 25 15 Jan. 2002

July 2002

Jan. 2003

July 2003

Jan. 2004

Sources: Datastream, World Bank.

July 2004

Jan. 2005

July 2005

Jan. May 2006 2006

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Figure 1.6 Higher prices slow oil demand

Figure 1.7 A disappointing supply response

Change in apparent oil demand, millions of barrels of oil per day 4.5 Other 4.0 Other Asia

Change in global oil deliveries, millions of barrels of oil per day

3.5

China

3.0

OECD

2.5

E C O N O M Y

4 OPEC Other 3

FSU Total

Total

2

2.0 1

1.5 1.0

0

0.5 0.0

–1

–0.5

2002

2003

2004

2005

2005

–2

Source: International Energy Agency. –3 2001

had prices remain unchanged, oil demand would have increased by some 2–2.5 mbpd.8 Incremental oil demand declined in all regions. In addition to prices, a number of special factors were at work. In the United States, higher petrol prices in the wake of hurricane Katrina provoked a sharp decline in both vehicle miles and gasoline consumption in the autumn, while a mild winter has also eased demand. In Asia, growth in oil consumption slowed, due in part to subsidy cuts in countries such as Indonesia and Thailand. In China energy demand eased partly because new electricalgenerating capacity reduced the use of relatively inefficient diesel-fueled backup power generators. Notwithstanding some three years of higher prices9 and the coming on stream of new fields in Africa and elsewhere, there has been no discernible acceleration in aggregate oil supply (figure 1.7).10 This contrasts with the 1970s and 1980s, when increased output brought substantial new capacity online, helping to reduce prices.11 Aggregate supply has failed to respond, despite a sharp increase in investment activity among oilexporting developing countries. Output from those sources has increased just 2.7 percent, or 0.9 mbpd (4.2 percent, or 0.2 mbpd, for African producers). A number of factors have contributed to limit the response of aggregate oil supply: 1.

Existing fields in the United States and in the North Sea have entered into a period of de-

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: International Energy Agency.

2.

3.

4.

5.

clining yields and the rate of increase in production of fields in the former Soviet Union has slowed. A deterioration in the investment climate in some developing countries has lowered production levels and reduced investment, despite the existence of ample reserves. Low oil prices during the 1990s limited incentives to explore for new oil. More recently, uncertainty over the durability of higher oil prices led firms to be cautious about investing in new (relatively high-cost) capacity, especially given the long lead times (between three and six years) needed to develop new fields. Low investment in the past has contributed to a lack of skilled labor and equipment, further delaying the supply response. A large share of known reserves is located in countries to which major oil companies do not have access. Major oil firms have been offered service contracts to help countries develop their resources. Thus far, however, oil companies appear to have found share buybacks and increased dividends to be a more profitable use of their earnings. Recent decisions in some developing countries to renounce existing contracts are unlikely to increase firms’ willingness to invest further.

23

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 1.8 Spare production capacity remains low

Nonoil commodities

OPEC spare production capacity, millions of barrels per day

The rise in oil prices since 2003 has been accompanied by increasing prices for agricultural goods, metals, and minerals (figure 1.9). Reflecting continued strong growth in global output, metals and minerals prices increased by some 27 percent in 2005 and up an additional 24 percent in the first four months of 2006. Increases in 2005 were concentrated in industrial metals, such as iron ore (up 72 percent), zinc (up 38 percent), and copper (up 21 percent). Prices for other metals and minerals also rose, but by less. Tin, the price of which fell by 13 percent over the year, stands out as an exception. At the global level, prices of agricultural products have been relatively stable, up 9.3 percent between April 2006 and the same date a year earlier. High prices early in 2005 reflected a poor monsoon season in South Asia and drought conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa. Improved weather conditions, in combination with increased supply in some countries, contributed to an easing in agricultural prices through much of 2005, followed by a modest pickup in prices in the first quarter of 2006. Raw materials are up 11 percent since April 2005. The recent strength of nonoil commodity prices is primarily a reflection of strong world demand in recent years and low spare capacity brought on by low prices during the 1990s. Prices also have been influenced by strong energy prices, because energy is a major input in the production of many commodities (notably aluminum), and because several commodities are important substitutes for petroleum-based products (such as rubber and sugar used in the production of ethanol). Overall, about one-third of the increase in nonoil

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan. 2002

Jan. 2003

Jan. 2004

Jan. 2005

Jan. 2006

Sources: World Bank, International Energy Agency.

The combination of still growing demand and a weak supply response has meant that although spare production capacity has improved, it remains tight (figure 1.8). Looking forward, investments in new productive capacity are increasing (up some 15 percent in 2005). Moreover, continued high prices will increase incentives to adopt more petroleum-efficient technologies and conserve fuel. As a result, demand growth is expected to remain relatively moderate (at about 1.5–2 million barrels per day). Unless non-OPEC supplies rise much faster than expected (the International Energy Agency, 2005, projects non-OPEC supply to increase by 3 mbpd over the next three years), spare capacity will remain limited and OPEC’s pricing power high. The organization has signaled its willingness to reduce output in line with demand. Prices are expected to remain volatile but should gradually decline, reflecting the countervailing influences of continued strong growth in global output and limited increases in non-OPEC oil on the supply side, and increasing energy efficiency on the demand side. While the precise path to be taken in these conditions is largely unknowable, the forecasts reported in this chapter assume that barrel prices will begin moderating in 2006, averaging $64 for the year and decline gradually towards $57 in 2008. However, the market remains vulnerable to disruption, whether by natural disasters or geopolitical events.12 Hence, the possibility of sudden upward spikes in oil prices cannot be ignored, even if the general trend is one of stabilization or slight decline.

24

Figure 1.9 Commodity prices Index, 1990 = 100 300 Energy

250 200

Metals and minerals 150 Agricultural products

100 50 2001

2002

Source: World Bank.

2003

2004

2005

2006

P R O S P E C T S

Inflation, interest rates, and global imbalances Inflation Perhaps the most critical explanation for the limited impact of higher oil prices on output has been the weak response of inflation to higher oil prices—especially in high-income countries, where world interest rates are determined. While inflation is up in virtually every region, most of the increase appears to reflect the direct impact of higher oil prices. With perhaps the exception of South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (see discussion below), there is little evidence of the rapid price pass-through or the wage–price spirals that characterized the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980s (figure 1.10). Despite a pickup toward the end of 2005 in the United States, core inflation (the rate of price increase of goods and services, excluding food and energy) has increased relatively little (see figure 1.2). As a result, inflation expectations and interest rates have remained low, eliminating one of the principal mechanisms through which past oil shocks have slowed growth. Many factors explain this inflationary performance—among them more flexible labor and product markets in high-income countries, lower oil intensities, more credible monetary policy,

T H E

G L O B A L

E C O N O M Y

Figure 1.10 Moderate increases in inflation End of period, year-over-year monthly inflation rate 10 9 8

Mar. 2006

7

2005 2004

6

2003 2002

5 4 3 2 1

Ea st Pa As ci ia fic C Eu en ro tra pe lA & si La a t i n & A C ar me ib r ic be a M an id dl N e or E th as Af t & r ic a So ut h Su As bia Sa ha ra n Af ric a H ig h co -inc un om tr i e es

0

&

commodity prices between 2002 and 2005 was due to higher oil prices (Baffes 2005).13 Some of the very recent strength in the prices of precious metals may also reflect investor uncertainty in the face of a declining dollar and continued global imbalances. Improved supply should ease the prices of most agricultural commodities beginning in 2006. However, the prices of close energy substitutes and energy-intensive products are expected to rise further. Overall, agricultural prices are projected to rise by about 10 percent in 2006 before easing by about 3 percent in each of 2007 and 2008. Strong demand from China and other developing economies, low stocks, and high energy prices are projected to push metals and mineral prices up some 25 percent in 2006, before they begin easing by about 5 percent in 2007 and 12 percent in 2008. Demand-driven increases in energy prices represent an upside risk to energy-sensitive non-oil commodities including food stuffs, whose yields depend on energy-intensive fertilizers.

F O R

Source: World Bank.

and more prudent fiscal policies. In addition, the rapidly expanding role of Asia and, to a lesser extent, the countries of the former Soviet bloc as low-cost manufacturing centers have served to dampen price inflation in high-income countries, where many of these products are consumed. The pickup of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia is partly explained by food prices, which increased substantially in both regions during the course of 2005 and should be expected to ease in 2006 as crops improve. However, as is the case in a few Latin American countries, it also likely reflects overheating in those regions, which have been growing at historically high rates. This possibility is particularly worrisome in the case of Africa, because the credibility of monetary authorities is not yet well entrenched. Should an inflationary spiral develop, it could have serious consequences for macroeconomic stability and affect the ability of those economies to sustain the strong growth of the past several years. In the meantime, continued aid flows to finance improved governance and social and physical infrastructure investments will be essential to raising the trend growth rate that these countries can sustain.

Interest rates The subdued response of inflation has allowed monetary (and fiscal) policy to remain relatively accommodative. While short-term interest rates are

25

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 1.11 Flattening yield curve

Figure 1.12 Changes in real effective exchange rate Depreciation

Yield on 10- and 2-year U.S. Treasury bills 5

10-year Treasury bill yield

4

2 2-year Treasury bill yield 1

0 Jan. 2003

July 2003

Jan. 2004

July 2004

Jan. 2005

July 2005

Jan. 2006

Source: World Bank.

26

Resource Poor

rising, they remain low in real terms, and longterm rates have only recently begun rising in highincome countries. As a result, the yield curve has flattened significantly, with short-term bond yields virtually equal to longer term yields. Indeed, on several occasions during February and March 2006 the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds marginally exceeded that of the 10year bond (figure 1.11). Such yield-curve “inversion” has historically been a good indicator of a future recession (Estrella 2005).14 As such, these inversions may signal a slowing of the U.S. economy. However, they were very small and occurred with both short- and long-term real interest rates at low levels. Moreover, while the yield curve remains flat, long-term rates in April and early May were once again higher than short-term rates. In this context, the flattening of the yield curve reflects a broadly positive outlook for global growth, characterized by stable expectations for inflation, significant spare capacity in Europe, and an American economy that continues to expand quickly even as it slows in response to a more neutral monetary policy stance. Developing economies experienced a similar flattening of the yield curve. Bond spreads continued to decline, reaching a historic low of 174 basis points for sovereign borrowers in May 2006. However, the combination of relatively stable bank spreads (around 100 basis points) and rising rates in high-income countries means that the average interest rate paid by developing countries actually rose over the past 12 months (see chapter 2).15

Appreciation

Resource Rich

3

R.B. de Venezuela Ecuador Algeria Malaysia Mexico Chad Gabon Vietnam Cameroon Côte d’Ivoire Argentina Indonesia Trinidad and Tobago Iran, Islamic Rep. Kazakhstan Papua New Guinea Chile Colombia Equatorial Guinea Nigeria Russian Fed. South Africa Angola Brazil Zambia Lesotho Egypt, Arab Rep. of Bolivia Central African Rep. St. Kitts and Nevis Gambia, The Sierra Leone Bahamas, The Tunisia Mauritius Malawi Congo, Dem. Rep. Vatican Dominica Mozambique Costa Rica Jordan Belarus Uganda Grenada Latvia Netherlands Antilles Lithuania Belize China Guyana Antigua Nicaragua St. Lucia Taiwan, China Solomon Islands Morocco Macedonia, FYR Peru Slovenia Benin Burundi Jamaica Pakistan Paraguay India Poland Uruguay Hungary Croatia Slovenia Estonia Cyprus Thailand Fiji Malta Burkina Faso Kiribati Ukraine Dominican Rep. Philippines Togo Albania Guatemala Bulgaria Armenia Czech Rep. Ethiopia Namibia Western Samoa Tonga Moldova Ghana Kenya Romania Slovak Rep. Turkey

–45 –30 –15

0

15

30

45

60

75

% change, Jan. 2006–Dec. 2002

Sources: World Bank, IMF.

90

P R O S P E C T S

Most developing oil importers have financed higher oil bills successfully Another factor behind the resilience of growth has been the relative ease with which developing countries were able to finance higher oil bills. Many developing countries entered into this period of higher oil prices with positive or near-zero currentaccount balances. As a result, despite deteriorations of 2 or more percent of GDP in many cases, current-account positions for most countries remain at levels that should not pose serious financing difficulties (figure 1.13). In the poorest countries, substantial increases in ODA during 2004 and 2005 provided some of the foreign currency necessary to finance the increase in their oil bills (figure 1.14). For many African countries, the increase in foreign currency earnings from this source amounted to more than 0.5 percent of GDP in 2004 (data for 2005 are not yet available). Simulations suggest that for oilimporting poor countries, increased ODA inflows may have reduced the first-round impact of higher oil prices by as much as two-thirds (Diaz-Bonilla and Savescu, 2006) (figure 1.14).18 While some countries may have used the money directly to finance oil consumption, in

G L O B A L

E C O N O M Y

Figure 1.13 Developing countries’ current-account balances Current account balance (% of GDP), 2002 and 2005 8

2002 2005

6 4 2 0 –2 –4

O te il rs Ea & st A Pa s ci ia fic C Eu en r tra op l e La Asi & a t & in A C m ar e ib ric be a an & Mi N dd or le th E Af as ric t a So ut h As Su ia bSa h Af ara ric n a

–6

ex po r

A further factor limiting the real-side consequences of higher oil prices is the wider adoption of flexible-exchange-rate regimes over the past two decades (see chapter 5). Among oil-importing developing countries that have not benefited from high metals and minerals prices, there was a modest tendency toward depreciation.16 Unsurprisingly, among developing oil exporters the tendency toward appreciation was much more pronounced, with two-thirds of these countries appreciating by an average of 18 percent.17 Such exchange rate fluctuations contributed to the resilient response of these economies to higher oil prices by facilitating adjustment to the change in relative prices implied by higher oil prices (figure 1.12). For oil importers, the depreciation transfers the price shock over a wider range of tradable goods and services. Moreover, by making exports more competitive and imports less so, the depreciation increases net exports, reducing the impact on economic output that would otherwise be observed as a result of reduced incomes and lower consumption.

T H E

Oil importing developing countries

Source: World Bank.

Figure 1.14 Increased aid helped finance oil costs in 2004 Increases in net ODA in 2004, excl. debt relief; % of GDP 2

1

0

–1

–2

Bu Ug rk an in d a a F Se aso ne ga M oz Ke l am ny bi a q M ue M ala M au wi ad rit ag ius N as ic ca ar r Sr agu iL a H an on ka d M ura or s T oc Ba anz co ng an la ia d Pa esh k In ist do an n Et esia hi op ia

Exchange rates

F O R

Sources: OECD, World Bank.

most instances this was not the case. To the degree that projects financed by this aid had low import intensities, the foreign currency, after conversion to domestic currency, would be available to finance other imports—perhaps, but not necessarily, more expensive oil. Moreover, if there is a positive externality associated with domestic export activity (Frankel and Romer 1999; Ibrahim and

27

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

MacPhee 2003), the negative oil shock may actually have improved development prospects by partially offsetting the Dutch-disease effect associated with the increased aid.19 Despite these offsetting factors, several countries appear to be encountering difficulties financing their higher oil bills. In Africa, current account deficits among oil-importers (excluding South Africa) have soared and average more than 6 percent of GDP. Current-account deficits have also reached worrisome levels in many European and Central Asian countries. Many countries are experiencing fiscal difficulties because of less-thancomplete pass-through. Madagascar, Malawi, and Sierra Leone have been forced to ration electricity consumption through rotating blackouts in an effort to conserve energy, suggesting that they may have met binding current-account constraints and are unable to finance additional oil imports. Several other countries appear to be consuming international reserves at unsustainable rates (Benin, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Tanzania) (figure 1.15). In still others, reserves represent a dangerously low share of monthly import cover (Bangladesh, Madagascar, Namibia, Swaziland). In all of these countries, policy makers will need to take concrete steps, including currency depreciation and energy conservation measures, so that domestic demand and the country’s net revenue positions adjust to recent changes in relative prices.

Figure 1.15 Reserves in some countries are falling rapidly or worrisomely low Import coverage in months of imports

18.9

10 9 8 7 6

2004 2005 2003

5 4 3 2 1

Source: World Bank.

28

Ta nz an ia G u Bi ine ss a au

M al i Be ni n

Sw az ila nd N am ib ia Ba ng la de sh M ad ag as ca r M au rit iu s

0

Figure 1.16 Tensions associated with fast growth, the case of Turkey Sources of finance in Turkey’s balance of payments, US$ millions

25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 –5,000 –10,000 2002

2003

Private investment flows

2004

Bonds

Other

2005

Reserves

Fin req (CA Bal)

Source: IMF.

Of particular concern are a number of countries that combine high current-account deficits, significant capital inflows, high interest rates, and an appreciating currency, notably Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey (figure 1.16). These conditions pose serious problems for policy makers, as the capital inflows (initially in the form of direct investments) prompt an appreciation of the currency, increase domestic money supply, and raise inflationary pressures. In each of these countries monetary institutions have responded by raising interest rates, which reduces domestic money supply growth but has also induced additional financial inflows, adding to domestic liquidity and inflationary pressures.20 While tighter fiscal policy has helped combat these tendencies, external deficits continue to rise and currencies to appreciate in many of these countries. Should capital inflows slow or stop, financing current levels of expenditure could be very difficult, placing these currencies under significant pressure. A sudden depreciation could generate an inflationary push— partially undoing recent achievements in stabilizing currencies and controlling domestic inflation. More generally, the deterioration in the current-account position of oil-importing developing countries means that they are much more vulnerable now than they were in 2003. An important supply disruption that pushed oil prices even higher, or a decline in nonoil commodity prices, would be much more difficult to finance and could precipitate painful adjustments (see risks section).

P R O S P E C T S

Global imbalances persist The imbalances in global spending patterns that have characterized the world economy over the past five years, with the United States consuming significantly more than it produces and running a large current-account deficit, persisted in 2005 (figure 1.17). High oil prices both exacerbated imbalances and changed their nature, contributing to about 40 percent of the additional deterioration of the U.S. current-account deficit in 2005.21 At the same time, high oil prices caused the currentaccount position of almost all oil-importing countries to deteriorate and substantially boosted those of exporters. As a result, whereas in 2002 oil-importers in virtually every region except the United States were running a current-account surplus, now almost all are running deficits— with the notable exceptions China, Japan, Korea, and a few other high-income countries. The sustainability of these imbalances and their financing is a question of growing concern (IMF 2006; World Bank 2005a, 2005b). Persistent current-account deficits have transformed the United States from being the world’s most important creditor nation (with a net international investment position of 13 percent of GDP in 1979) to being the world’s largest debtor (with a net asset position of –21 percent of GDP in 2004). Unless savings in the United States increase substantially,

F O R

T H E

G L O B A L

E C O N O M Y

its net asset position is set to deteriorate sharply, reaching between 65 and 48 percent of GDP by 2015 (Higgins, Klitgaard, and Tille 2005).22 So far, financing of these deficits has not posed a serious problem for the United States, in part because of low interest rates and because of a generalized willingness of foreigners to hold American assets that yield lower returns than the foreign assets held by Americans.23 As a result, despite the deterioration of its net asset position, the United States has continued to earn a positive net return on foreign investments.24 If investor’s willingness to continue accumulating such assets changed, U.S. interest rates would rise and the current account balance would deteriorate (by about 0.5 percent of GDP for every 100-basis-point rise in U.S. interest rates relative to foreign rates).25 Over the past year, short-term interest rates in the United States have risen by about 100 basis points more than in Europe, bringing the overall difference to 220 basis points. The long-term differential is now some 100 basis points (figure 1.18). Although it is certainly too early to tell, this movement (and the decline in emerging-market risk premia against the dollar) could reflect a reassessment of the dollar as a safe haven. Independent of the reasons for these movements, the course of long-term interest rates continues to be sensitive to the willingness of nonmarket sources of finance (formerly developing-country central banks and now, increasingly, authorities in

Figure 1.17 Global imbalances Current account balance, $ billions, 2002 and 2005 400

2002

Figure 1.18 Interest rate spreads support the dollar

2005

3-month and 10-year bond yield, %

200

6

0

–200

10-year U.S. yield

5

–400 4

–600 10-year euro yield

3

–800

High-income exporters Low-income exporters

Other developing importers

Europe & Central Asia

Oil exporters

China

Japan

Europe

Other high-income importers

USA

Source: World Bank.

East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)

Oil importers

–1000

2

3-month euro yield

1 3-month U.S. yield 0 Jan. 2002

Jan. 2003

Jan. 2004

Jan. 2005

Jan. 2006

Sources: World Bank, Datastream.

29

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 1.19 Funding the U.S. current account deficit Net flows by asset class, US$ billions 1,000 800 600 400 200 0

ward pressure and that U.S. interest rates will continue to exceed those in Europe. Indeed, between January and early May 2006, dollar cross rates have been relatively sensitive to interest rate differentials. During this period, it has depreciated 7 percent against the euro (4 percent against the won and 0.7 percent against the renminbi) and 2.3 percent in real-effective terms. Looking forward these trends are expected to continue and the dollar to depreciate slowly by about 5 percent per year over the projection period.

–200 2004 U.S. corporate bonds FDI Equities

2005 Treasuries Banking Official assets

Source: World Bank.

oil-exporting countries) to purchase low-yield dollar-denominated assets. Lower reserve accumulation by oil-importing developing economies translated into a $130 billion decline in their purchases of U.S. Treasury bills and official assets (figure 1.19). This was only partly offset by a $14 billion increase in purchases by oil exporters. The need to meet this (nonmarket) financing shortfall may have been among the factors that pushed up long-term U.S. interest rates. The tensions implicit in the U.S. currentaccount deficit are building and need to be addressed. Reducing global imbalances is a shared international responsibility, requiring a tightening of fiscal policy in the United States, increased imports abroad and increased exchange-rate flexibility. Implementation must necessarily be gradual—to avoid excessive disruption, both within the United States as macro policy is tightened and in developed and developing Asia as currencies are allowed to appreciate. However, to be effective and preempt market jitters the effort must be credible. In particular, in the absence of increased savings in the United States, increased domestic demand abroad and greater exchange rate flexibility are unlikely to have a significant effect on global imbalances and would likely exacerbate global capacity constraints—reducing the likelihood of a soft landing. Although in the near term global imbalances are unlikely to provoke the serious currency crisis suggested by some (Roubini and Setser 2005), they do imply that the dollar will face further down-

30

World trade

O

verall, merchandise trade growth slowed somewhat in 2005, expanding by 8.9 percent, as compared with 11.8 percent in 2004 (figure 1.20). Most of the slowdown occurred during the first half of the year and among high-income countries. For 2005 as a whole, their export volumes increased only 6.0 percent, down from 10.2 percent the year before. However, toward the second half of the year and into 2006, outturns have improved, in part because of increased European exports to the Middle East. In contrast, China’s export volume expanded by 27.8 percent in 2005, almost exactly as fast as in 2004. Moreover, despite a slowing in the pace of Chinese foreign sales towards the end of 2005, export volumes have once again picked up—expanding by more than 25 percent during the first

Figure 1.20 Healthy growth in world trade % change, year-over-year 60

25 20

Developing countries (ex. China)

50

15

40

10 30 5 20 0 High-income countries

–5

10 0

–10 China (right axis) –15 2000

–10 2001

Source: World Bank.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

P R O S P E C T S

Can developing countries continue to gain market share at recent rates? The strong economic performance of low- and middle-income countries over the past several years reflects both rapid growth in world exports (up 90 percent since 1995) and an almost 50 percent increase in the market share of developing economies, up from 20 percent in 1995 to almost 30 percent in 2005. This improvement is due, in large part, to increases in the market share of China. Nevertheless, every developing region (except East Asia excluding China) has seen its global market share increase (figure 1.21).

T H E

G L O B A L

E C O N O M Y

Figure 1.21 Regional increases in market share % increase in global market share, 2005, since1995 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0

Ea st Pa As ci ia fic Ea ex st . C As hi ia na C E en ur tra op l e La Asi & a & tin A C m ar e ib ri be ca an & Mi d N or dle th E Af as ric t a So ut h As ia Su bSa h Af ara ric n a

–0.5

&

two months of 2006. Other developing countries also continued to expand their market share. Their export volumes increased 10.3 percent, only somewhat slower than the year before. Here, too, trade growth decelerated early in the second half of 2005 but has since picked up. Oil revenues of developing-country oil exporters nearly doubled between 2002 and 2005, increasing by some $215 billion. For all oil exporters, the increase was about $400 billion. However, oil exporters have increased their own imports markedly, and more than three-quarters of additional export revenues have been spent on additional imports. Oil exporters are also recycling petrodollars through financial markets. Between 2002 and 2005, oil-exporting developing countries increased foreign currency reserves by $255 billion (with $117 billion of the increase accounted for by the Russian Federation). In total some $245 billion has flowed into the United States as securities, bonds or bank deposits, while about $50 billion has been placed directly into the European banking sector. Unfortunately, because of the use of third-party intermediaries and reduced reliance on the banking sector (as compared with past episodes of high oil prices) it is particularly difficult to trace the destination of these funds (BIS 2005). Not all regions shared equally in the recycling of petrodollars. In particular, the share of the United States in the imports of oil-exporting countries fell from 25 to 20 percent during this period.26 In contrast, most developing countries increased their market share in the imports of oil-exporting countries. However, the increase in their export revenues paled in comparison with the increase in their oil bills.

F O R

Source: World Bank.

The export boom of China is similar to past booms in a number of countries that are now classified as high income (Israel, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan) in that it was mostly driven by an expansion in the range of goods exported. Thus, while technological progress, investment, and labor productivity growth contributed to a 290 percent increase in Chinese sales to the United States of products already on sale in 1992, more than 60 percent of the total increase came from the sale of goods that China did not export to the United States in 1992.27 This contrasts with Bangladesh, for example (figure 1.22). That country’s revenues from exports of traditional products to the United States increased by an impressive 173 percent between 1992 and 2005, but compared with China it managed only to generate one-tenth as much additional revenue from new products. While not as marked as in China, there is evidence that other developing countries are diversifying the range of goods that they export and moving up the value-added ladder. Today, the revenues of developing countries from exports to high-income countries depend much less on raw materials (figure 1.23) and much more on highervalue-added goods (and services). The rapid increase in the market share of China and other developing countries resulted from the exploitation of preexisting competitive

31

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 1.22 Increased product range explains most of Chinese export growth Index of the value of exports to the USA, 1992 = 100 China 1,000 New export products 900 Goods being sold in 1992 800 700 600 500 400

Bangladesh

300 200 100 0

1992

2005

1992

2005

Source: World Bank.

Figure 1.23 Exports of developing countries have diversified Product shares in exports of developing countries (ex. India & China) to high-income countries, % 100

Manufactures Electronics Machinery, equipment Motor vehicles, parts Lumber, paper Textiles, apparel, leather Beverages, tobacco Food products Metals, minerals Gas Oil Fishing Forestry Crops

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978

2002

Source: World Bank.

advantages that have been exposed by market liberalization and domestic policy reforms. These include trade liberalization (both multilateral and, importantly, autonomous liberalization [World Bank 2005]), and behind-the-border reforms, such as regulatory reform, liberalization of foreign investment regimes, and improved labor market regulations.28 The important role that expanding the range of goods exported has played in China's success suggests that trade expansion need not be bound by increases in productivity or lower wages. Rather, it reflects the exposure of preexisting com-

32

parative advantages to new markets, the application of lessons learned in existing sectors to new ones, and a widening of the product base. Long-term prospects for developing economies will depend importantly on their ability to continue increasing market share in this way. For countries and regions that, like Bangladesh, have yet to enjoy an export boom, trade liberalization and facilitation comprise key agendas. For China, the boost in exports associated with accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) may be easing (accession is estimated to have increased export growth by 12 percentage points). Nevertheless, China’s volume of exports can be expected to continue growing at around 18 percent.29 More generally, developing countries must establish and maintain low tariffs across the board, minimize administrative burdens associated with trade, and reduce transit times so that markets can be served in a timely manner (Newfarmer 2005). On the multilateral front, efforts need to be concentrated on agriculture, the most heavily protected sector and one where many developing countries enjoy a comparative advantage. Liberalization here would allow these countries to reap the same kind of benefits that have accrued to countries specialized in manufacturing following the liberalization of that sector. Second, countries need to reduce rigidities in product, labor, and financial markets so that firms can react with agility to new opportunities to expand the range of products they produce and sell.

Risks

T

he relatively benign soft-landing scenario for developing countries that is described above is subject to a number of important downside risks.

Managing fast growth Internal risks exist on both the upside and downside. Following several years of very fast growth, a number of economies are showing signs of strain, as capacity constraints appear in some sectors or as weaknesses in their infrastructure or institutional frameworks are exposed. In several countries in the Europe and Central Asia region, strong FDI inflows attracted by privatizations and the prospects of accession to the European Union have prompted an appreciation of domestic currencies,

P R O S P E C T S

high current-account deficits, and domestic monetary expansion. Subsequent increases in domestic interest rates have attracted further financial inflows, exacerbating the current account and exchange rate pressures. While, these pressures are projected to ease in our baseline projection, they carry with them the potential to prompt a currency crisis—possibly resulting in a hard landing— in one or more of these countries. The rapid expansion of investment and domestic credit in some Asian economies may be overextending the banking sector in these countries in ways that are not yet obvious, potentially resulting in a sharp reversal of fortunes. The rapid rise in stock-market valuations, housing prices, and prices of other assets in several oil-exporting countries may also spur a crisis if conditions change rapidly. Finally, the real-income shocks that developing countries have been subjected to are large, and adjustment to them remains incomplete. While inflationary pressures in most countries have been contained so far, pressures on wages are being felt in some. Rising inflation in a few countries in Latin America, South Asia, and, perhaps, Sub-Saharan Africa are suggestive of the beginning of an inflationary spiral. Unless fiscal and monetary authorities succeed in slowing growth, inflationary expectations may become engrained requiring a sharper slowdown later on as authorities intervene to contain them.

External risks The external environment of the past few years has been especially propitious for growth, characterized by ample liquidity, rapidly expanding demand for the exports developing countries. Looking forward, conditions will be less benign. Interest rates are rising, while very high current account deficits in a number of developing countries suggests that many have yet to adjust fully to higher oil prices and that they have become more vulnerable to additional shocks. The principal external risks facing the global economy have changed little over the past several years. They include: (1) the possibility that a supply shock will cause the price of oil to rise even further; (2) the possibility that interest rates demanded by foreign investors to finance the large U.S. current-account will rise, either gradually, in response to depreciation of the dollar, or more precipitously, because of a change in perceptions or

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behavior; and (3) the possibility that nonoil commodity prices will fall significantly. The effects on output in the global economy, should those risks be realized, have been presented in past editions of Global Development Finance and Global Economic Prospects. Rather than discuss them at length here (past results are summarized briefly below), this section explores their potential effects on the most vulnerable of low- and middle-income countries, particularly those that have significantly less room for maneuver than they did in 2002 because of the recent increases in oil prices. Table 1.2 summarizes the results from previous simulations of three hypothetical shocks: (1) a reduction of 2 million barrels per day in oil supply, resulting in a rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel for three months and $80 for a further nine months; (2) a 200-basis-point increase in long-term interest rates and risk premia; and (3) a 15-percent decline in the price of nonoil commodities. While for analytical clarity these simulations are presented independently, there are likely to be interactions between them. For example, were output to slow following a disruptive resolution of global imbalances both oil and non-oil commodity prices would likely decline. This kind of interaction is accounted for in table 1.2, but not in the more detailed impact analyses presented in tables 1.3–5. Similarly the probabilities of these external shocks differ. The probability of a disruptive resolution of global imbalances is low (but grows the longer corrective steps are not taken), while experts argue that there is a 70 percent chance of a 2 mbpd supply disruption sometime in the next 10 years (Beccue & Huntington, 2005). In the first scenario, a substantial disruption in global oil supply pushes oil prices to $100 for one quarter and to $80 for a further nine months. As a result, global growth slows by about 0.75 percent a year over two years. The impact is more severe in large low-income and middle-income countries, both because of higher energy intensities and a greater inflationary impact, which requires a larger contraction to eliminate. On average, the currentaccount position of oil importing countries would deteriorate by about 1.1 percent of GDP. In the second scenario, concerns over the U.S. current-account deficit push long-term interest rates up by 200 basis points. Heightened insecurity, especially because the dollar—the traditional

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Table 1.2 Estimated impact of three risk scenarios GDP (% change from baseline) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Scenario 1: a 2-million-barrels-per-day negative supply shocka World –1.0 –1.5 High-income countries –0.7 –1.5 Middle-income countries –1.6 –1.6 Large low-income countries –1.7 –2.8 Current-account-constrained low-income countries –0.3 0.1 Scenario 2: a 200-basis-point increase in interest ratesb World –1.7 –2.9 High-income countries –1.5 –2.7 Low- and middle-income countries –2.4 –3.5

–1.1 –1.3 –0.1 –1.8 0.0

–1.9 –2.5 –3.0

First-round impact, % of GDP

Scenario 3: a 15 percent decline in non-oil commodity prices High-income countries 0.0 Low- and middle-income countries –0.1 Low- and middle-income oil exporters 0.0 Low- and middle-income other –0.1 Low-income countries 0.0 Low-income oil exporters 0.2 Low-income other –0.1 East Asia & Pacific 0.1 Latin America & Caribbean –0.4 Europe & Central Asia –0.2 Middle East & North Africa 0.5 South Asia 0.2 Sub-Saharan Africa –0.7 Oil exporters 0.3 Oil importers –1.1 Oil importers less South Africa –1.1 HIPC –0.7 Oil exporters 0.0 Other –1.2

Source: World Bank. a. For more details see (World Bank 2005b, Table 1.5) b. For more details see (World Bank 2005b, Table 1.6)

safe haven currency—is the source of disruption, causes developing country risk premia to increase by an additional 200 basis points. World growth slows by about one-half for a period of two years, as higher interest rates cut into investment and consumption demand, both through classic transmission mechanisms and via the impact of interest rates on housing prices and consumer wealth. Slower growth eases inflationary pressure and global tensions, allowing monetary policy to loosen. Growth starts to pick up again. In the third scenario, a 15 percent fall in nonoil commodity prices affects global growth only marginally. The bulk of the impact is felt by Sub-Saharan African oil-importing countries, which sustain a terms-of-trade loss equal to 1 percent of GDP. In the context of already elevated current-account deficits, this translates into a substantial reduction in domestic demand but only a limited fall in output, because net exports increase as a lack of access to foreign currency forces non-oil import volumes to decline in line with the increased oil bill.

Potential impacts in the most vulnerable countries For the majority of developing countries, the fundamental improvements (increased globalization in both product and financial markets, improved

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credibility of monetary policy, and more flexible labor and product markets) that allowed them to absorb the recent hike in oil prices with limited effects on output should also permit them to deal with the kinds of shocks modeled above without too much difficulty. For other countries, however, the recent oil price hike caused a substantial deterioration in their current-account position. In addition to the real-side consequences of higher interest rates or a further increase in oil prices, the macroeconomic position of these countries could be placed under serious strain by the shocks assumed here—resulting in significant disruption. In the case of an interest rate shock, heavily indebted countries and middle-income countries would be most vulnerable, while a further increase in oil prices would strike the most oil-intensive economies hardest. A decline in nonoil commodity prices could also have important consequences for countries that are currently benefiting from strong nonoil commodity prices, notably metals and minerals. Tables 1.3 through 1.5 summarize these sensitivities by highlighting the expected first-round impacts of the three shocks outlined above on the current accounts of developing economies. These simulations are meant to be illustrative—not predicative. Both the likelihood of a shock and its

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eventual magnitude are very uncertain. As the results presented in these tables are estimates of the first-round impact for a given size shock, they can be scaled up or down to estimate the impact of a smaller or larger shock. Table 1.3 shows an estimate of the the cumulative impact of a 200-basis-point increase in U.S.

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interest rates and a 200-basis-point increase in risk premia for the most vulnerable developing countries30 (the most heavily indebted and those with high concentrations of short-term and other interest sensitive debt). Such a shock could represent as much as 3.5 percent of these countries’ GDP and could send their current-account deficits

Table 1.3 Impact of a 400-basis-point increase in interest rates in selected developing countries % of GDP Increase in debt servicing costs

Interest payments on external debt, 2004

3.8 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

3.4 2.3 2.2 3.5 2.4 1.2 1.8 0.4 2.2 2.1 1.5 3.6 4.4 0.7 1.3 1.8

Estonia Latvia Kazakhstan Croatia Moldova Argentina Hungary Sudan Slovak Republic Bulgaria Chile Uruguay Philippines Côte d’Ivoire Czech Republic Indonesia

Lithuania Jordan São Tomé and Principe Poland Romania Zimbabwe Mauritius Turkey Malaysia Paraguay Nicaragua Lebanon Peru Panama Colombia Jamaica

Increase in debt servicing costs

Interest payments on external debt, 2004

1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

1.6 1.6 5.0 1.4 1.5 0.5 1.4 2.3 1.8 1.9 1.0 6.6 2.1 4.8 2.5 3.8

Source: World Bank.

Table 1.4 Impact of a further $30 hike in oil prices in selected developing countries % of GDP Change in current account due to $30 hike in oil price

Guyana Mongolia Tajikistan Lesotho Togo Kiribati Solomon Islands Swaziland Tonga Cambodia Ghana Belize Honduras Moldova Nicaragua Samoa Jamaica São Tomé and Principe Macedonia, FYR Maldives Micronesia, Fed. States of Palau

–8.2 –6.4 –6.3 –5.8 –5.4 –5.3 –5.2 –5.1 –4.4 –4.4 –4.3 –4.3 –4.0 –3.8 –3.5 –3.5 –3.3 –3.3 –3.2 –3.2 –3.1 –3.0

Current account balance in 2005

–25.1 –2.8 –4.2 –2.9 –10.3 –13.6 –14.2 1.9 –0.5 –5.2 –6.9 –14.2 –4.4 –25.1 –18.6 –0.3 –11.3 –32.1 –6.0 –25.1 — —

Vanuatu Antigua and Barbuda Ukraine Paraguay Lebanon Mali Jordan Mozambique Malawi Bahamas, The Grenada Gambia, The Dominica St. Lucia Nepal Pakistan Mauritius Madagascar New Caledonia Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Armenia

Change in current account due to $30 hike in oil price

Current account balance in 2005

–3.0 –3.0 –2.9 –2.9 –2.8 –2.7 –2.7 –2.6 –2.6 –2.5 –2.4 –2.3 –2.2 –2.2 –2.2 –2.2 –2.2 –2.1 –2.1 –2.1 –2.1 –2.1

–44.4 –5.5 1.3 –0.8 –16.3 –8.5 –5.8 –5.1 –7.1 –11.6 –71.7 –12.4 –26.3 –10.1 –1.3 –1.9 –4.8 –9.1 — –5.0 –7.9 –2.3

Sources: World Bank; IMF. Note: — = not available.

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Table 1.5 Impact of a 15 percent fall in non-oil commodity % of GDP

Guyana Tajikistan Suriname Solomon Islands Belize Mauritania Mongolia Paraguay Papua New Guinea Kyrgyz Republic Mali Côte d’Ivoire Ghana Malawi Chile Zimbabwe Zambia Ukraine Jamaica

Change in current account balance

Current account balance (2005)

–8.3 –7.3 –7.0 –4.5 –3.8 –3.8 –3.7 –3.5 –3.5 –3.1 –3.0 –2.9 –2.9 –2.8 –2.5 –2.3 –2.2 –2.0 –2.0

–25.1 –4.2 –12.3 –14.2 –14.2 –29.6 –2.8 –0.8 10.0 –5.0 –8.5 2.2 –6.9 –7.1 –0.9 46.6 –10.3 1.3 –11.3

Source: World Bank; IMF.

to unsustainable levels. Depending on the availability of additional financing, this would require substantial retrenchment in these countries, likely implying large cuts in government spending and reductions in domestic demand that would likely translate into a period of sustained lower growth or a sharp recession. Encouragingly, a number of heavily indebted countries have taken advantage of favorable financing conditions to restructure their debt, reducing their sensitivity to changes in interest rates. As a result, countries that have experienced financial crises in the past, such as Brazil, Mexico and Thailand, appear to be much less vulnerable to a rapid rise in interest rates and do not appear in table 1.3. On average, for oil-importing low-income countries, the initial terms-of-trade shock of a further $30 hike in oil prices is estimated at 4.1 percent of their GDP. This would translate into a 2.7 percent decline in domestic demand, with potentially serious impacts on poverty. For the most oilintensive economies, this could amount to as much as 8 percent of GDP (table 1.4). While many countries throughout the developing world would be hard hit, most countries could be expected again to manifest the same resilience they showed during the previous oil hike. Problems are most likely to crop up in those countries that combine a large ex-

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pected impact with already large current-account deficits. Such countries are unlikely to be able to find additional financing for their oil bills and, as a result, could be expected to undergo significant real-side adjustments as the volume of domestic demand, as well as oil (and nonoil) imports, would have to be cut in order to finance the higher cost of imported oil. Table 1.5 reports the expected terms-of-trade impact from a 15 percent reduction in nonoil commodity prices, as well as estimates for the currentaccount deficit in 2005, for those countries where the impact would be greater than 2 percent of GDP. While countries throughout the developing world would be hard hit, large impacts are concentrated in developing Africa. Indeed, for the region as a whole, the negative impact would be 0.7 percent of GDP, or 1.2 percent of the GDP of heavily indebted poor countries. While many of these countries currently have healthy currentaccount balances (for example, Côte d’Ivoire, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, and Ukraine) and can be expected to absorb even such a large shock relatively easily, many others are already in a vulnerable state. For these countries, taking steps now to improve the competitiveness of their export industries and reduce reliance on imports is even more critical.

Avian influenza

T

he continued spread of the bird-to-bird version of avian influenza (or bird flu, also known by its scientific identifier H5N1), with limited bird-to-human transmission comprises part of the baseline forecast. A serious risk to the global economy stems from the possibility that avian influenza might mutate into a form of flu that is easily transmitted between humans and for which the population has limited immunity.31 The human and economic consequences of such a pandemic are potentially very large and depend importantly on the nature of the flu that emerges and on the reactions of people as it spreads.

Economic consequences of a further spread of bird-to-bird flu The principal economic impact of the H5N1 virus so far has come in the rural sectors of several Asian economies in which the disease is endemic.

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Table 1.6 Impact of a widening of bird-bird flu % change in GDP, relative to the baseline Bird-birda

World total High-income countries

–0.1 –0.1

Low- & middle-income countries

–0.4

East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

–0.4 –0.4 –0.7 –0.4 –0.4 –0.3

Source: World Bank. a. Assumes that 12 percent of domestic birds in each region die from the disease or are killed in efforts to prevent its spread.

Its appearance in a number of European and African countries suggests that the disease may become as prevalent among the wild birds of these continents as it is currently in Asia. Table 1.6 reports an effort to estimate the economic impact of such a spreading of the current bird-to-bird flu. The reported results are based on a scenario where bird-to bird flu becomes endemic throughout the world to the degree observed in Vietnam in 2004 (approximately 12 percent of all domestic birds died from the disease or were culled to prevent spread). While direct costs are small (only 0.1 percent of world GDP),32 differing degrees of international specialization and cost structures suggest that, allowing for interactions with other sectors, regional impacts could be as high as 0.7 percent of GDP.33 Because the sector is more important in developing countries and relatively labor intensive, job losses could represent about 0.2 percent of the global work force, or some 5 million jobs during the time it takes the global economy to adjust.

Possible economic consequences of a human pandemic Even a flu with “normal” characteristics in terms of transmissibility and deadliness could have serious consequences for the global economy if the world’s population has limited immunity. Estimates suggest that such a flu could infect as much as 35 percent of the world’s population (WHO 2005), spreading throughout the world in as few as 180 days (RTI, 2006). As compared with a normal flu season, where some 0.2–1.5 million die (WHO 2003),34 deaths from even a mild new flu might include an

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additional 1.4 million people worldwide. A more virulent form, such as the 1918-9 flu, which was more deadly for healthy adults than a normal flu, could have much more serious consequences, killing as many as 1 in 40 infected individuals (Barry 2005) or some 71 million, with some authors suggesting that as many as 180–260 million could die in a worst-case scenario (Osterholm 2005). Table 1.7 reports the results of three separate simulations of the economic consequences of a pandemic (McKibbin and Sidorenko 2006). The first (mild) scenario is modeled on the Hong Kong flu of 1968-9; the moderate flu has the characteristics of the 1957 Asian flu; and the severe simulation is benchmarked on the 1918-9 Spanish flu.35 Each of these scenarios assumes that efforts by individuals and official agencies to limit the spread of the disease are no more effectual than those observed during previous epidemics and reflects differences in population density, poverty, and the quality of health care available. For the world as a whole, a mild pandemic would reduce output by less than 1 percent of GDP, a moderate outbreak by more than 2 percent, and a severe pandemic by almost 5 percent, constituting a major global recession. Generally speaking, developing countries would be hardest hit, because of higher population densities, poverty and weaker health infrastructure.36 In addition, as modeled, less flexible market mechanisms accentuate the economic impacts in some countries. Table 1.8 shows an alternative modeling of a pandemic. It is based on a pandemic similar in terms of mortality to the Asian flu epidemic of 1958. This scenario is presented with a view to better understanding the factors driving the aggregate

Table 1.7 Possible economic impacts of flu pandemic % change in GDP, first-year

World High-income countries Developing countries East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Middle-East & North Africa South Asia Deaths (millions)

Mild

Moderate

Severe

–0.7 –0.7 –0.6 –0.8 –2.1 –0.7 –0.6

–2.0 –2.0 –2.1 –3.5 –4.8 –2.8 –2.1

–4.8 –4.7 –5.3 –8.7 –9.9 –7.0 –4.9

1.4

14.2

71.1

Source: World Bank calculations based on McKibbin & Sidorenko (2006).

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Table 1.8 A breakdown of economic impacts of a potential human-to-human pandemic % of GDP

World total High-income countries Low- and middle-income countries East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

Mortalitya

Impact of illness and absenteeismb

Impact of efforts to avoid infectionc

Total

Total ($ billions)

–0.4 –0.3 –0.6 –0.7 –0.4 –0.5 –0.7 –0.6 –0.6

–0.9 –0.9 –0.9 –0.7 –0.7 –0.9 –1.2 –0.8 –0.9

–1.9 –1.8 –2.1 –1.2 –2.3 –2.9 –1.8 –2.2 –2.2

–3.1 –3.0 –3.6 –2.6 –3.4 –4.4 –3.7 –3.6 –3.7

–965.4 –744.9 –220.4 –44.8 –21.7 –87.3 –32.2 –22.7 –11.8

Source: World Bank. a. Assumes a human flu pandemic similar to the 1958 Asian flu. Globally 1.08 percent of the world population dies, with regional mortallity rates varying from 0.3 percent in the U.S. to more than 2 percent in some developing countries. b. Assumes that for every person that dies 3 are seriously ill, requiring hospitalization for a week and absence from work for two weeks, 4 require medical treatment and are absent from work for a week and approximately 27 percent of the population has a mild bout of flu requiring two days absence from work. It assumes that in addition for every sick day another absentee day is registered either because people stay at home to care for a sick person or to avoid illness. c. Efforts to avoid infection are modelled as a demand shock, reflecting reduced travel, restaurant dining, hotels, tourism and theatre as individuals seek to avoid contact with others.

numbers in such simulations. The first column shows the impact in terms of GDP lost in the first year of the pandemic purely from additional deaths (here roughly equal to McKibbin and Sidorenko’s severe scenario). The second column builds in the impact on aggregate productivity resulting from the infection of some 35 percent of the population. Even though individuals are only temporarily unavailable from work, the impact on output here is more than twice as large as from the loss of life, because the affected population is so much larger. The third column shows the largest impact. Here individuals are assumed to change their behavior in the face of the pandemic by (a) reducing air travel in order to avoid infection in the enclosed space of a plane, (b) avoiding travel to infected destinations, and (c) reducing consumption of services such as restaurant dining, tourism, mass transport, and nonessential retail shopping. The degree to which such reactions would occur is necessarily uncertain. In this scenario it was assumed that for the year as a whole air travel would decline by 20 percent and that tourism, restaurant meals, and consumption of mass transportation services would also decline by 20 percent. This compares with a peak decline of 75 percent in air travel to Hong Kong during the SARS epidemic and an average decline of 50–60 percent during the four-month period the outbreak was active. Retail sales declined by 15 percent at the peak and by about 9 percent over the four month

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period—implying about 15 percent decline from trend (Siu and Wong, 2004). Higher declines on an annualized basis are assumed in these simulations because a flu pandemic would likely last more than a year (pandemics are typically experienced in at least two waves with a peak period of infection during the winter). The total impact of a shock combining all these elements is 3.1 percent for the global economy and ranges from 4.4 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.6 percent in the East Asia and Pacific region, mainly reflecting the relative importance and labor intensity of tourism and other services in each region. The modeling attempted to take into account the possibility that the economic effects of an outbreak would be greatest in the country where the human-to-human strain originates, the main factor here being private and public efforts to isolate and contain the disease by avoiding travel and imposing quarantines. However, simulations of an outbreak beginning in Thailand suggest that whatever additional costs the originating country may endure, these would be dominated by secondary effects as the disease spreads to other countries and global economic activity declines. Given the tremendous uncertainties surrounding the possibility and eventual nature of a pandemic, these simulations must be viewed as purely illustrative. They provide a sense of the overall magnitude of potential costs. Actual costs, both in

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terms of human lives and economic losses, are likely to be very different. That said, these simulations serve to underline the importance of mobilizing global efforts to meet this potential crisis. Monitoring outbreaks of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human infections and culling infected flocks appear to be effective strategies to reduce bird-to-human transmission and reduce the likelihood that the disease will mutate into a form that is easily transmissible between humans. The fact that there have been no reported cases of bird flu in Vietnam in the 2005-6 flu season suggests that such preventative efforts can be effective. However, even with such efforts, an eventual human pandemic at some unknown point in the future is virtually inevitable (WHO, 2004). Because such a pandemic would spread very quickly, substantial efforts need to be put into place to develop effective strategies and contingency plans that could be enacted at short notice. Much more research and coordination at the global level are required.

Notes 1. In addition to the Prospects for the Global Economy web site (http://www.worldbank.org/outlook) the World Bank’s East Asia update provides more detailed information on recent developments and prospects for the East Asia and Pacific region (http://www.worldbank.org/eapupdate/). 2. The World Bank’s East Asia Update provides additional detail on avian influenza in the region (http:// www.worldbank.org/eapupdate/). 3. In addition to the Prospects for the Global Economy web site (http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook), which provides more detail on the regional forecasts, the World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa Region’s Economic Developments and Prospects (http://www.worldbank.org/mena) provides country-specific analysis of economic developments, projections, and policy priorities. 4. For the purposes of this report, the developing countries of the region are Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Morocco, Oman, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen. A lack of data prevented inclusion of Djibouti, Iraq, Lebanon, and Libya from the projections. Important regional players include the highincome countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. 5. Fiscal and quasi-fiscal spending increased by 0.7 percent of GDP in Bangladesh, by 0.5 percent of GDP in India, and by significant, though lesser, amounts in other countries of the region. 6. More than one-third grew faster than 5 percent on average between 2000 and 2005, compared with less than 10 percent during the period 1980–1995.

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7. While large in percentage terms, the increase in oil prices from around $10 to $20 a barrel between 1999 and 2000 is not considered as part of the oil shock, because it merely reflected the reversal of a similar fall in prices the year before. 8. The short-term price elasticity of oil demand is estimated at between –0.01 and –0.2 percent (Burger 2005), implying that immediately following a 100-percent increase in oil prices, such as observed between 2002 and 2005, oil demand would be expected to decelerate by between 1 and 20 percent. Long-term elasticities are larger (between –0.2 and –0.6 percent), implying that the negative effect of higher prices over the past few years will continue to be felt. 9. The current rise in oil prices began in early 2003. 10. OPEC did increase its deliveries during 2004 by drawing down its spare capacity, but so far investments to increase that capacity have been limited. 11. In the three years following both the 1973 and 1979 oil price hikes, non-OPEC non-former Soviet Union oil producers increased their output by some 3.5 million barrels per day. In contrast, since 2002, production from these sources has actually declined. 12. Beccue and Huntington (2005) estimate the probability of a 2 mbpd supply shock occurring during the next 10 years as 70 percent for one lasting 6 months and 35 percent for one lasting 18 months. 13. Baffes (2005) estimates the elasticity of nonoil commodity prices to oil prices to be 0.15. 14. Normally, the yield curve is upward sloping, implying that bonds of shorter duration yield lower rates of return than longer term bonds. This upward slope is generally thought to reflect individuals’ time preference for money, on the one hand, and the increased risk associated with longer term lending. 15. For low- and middle-income countries as a whole, net bank lending actually exceeded bond emissions by a small margin. 16. About as many appreciated as depreciated. Overall, the unweighted average impact was a real effective depreciation of just 1 percent. 17. The unweighted average appreciation of oil and mineral exporters was smaller, at around 9 percent. 18. Simulations using the World Bank’s MAMS model (a computable general equilibrium model for studying the impact of aid on achieving the Millennium Development goals) indicate that a negative term-of-trade shock of 1 percent of GDP would reduce import volume growth in the first year by 2 percent. When combined with a 1 percent of GDP increase in aid flows, imports fall by only 0.7 percent. 19. The same simulations suggest that the real appreciation from a permanent increase in aid inflows equal to 1 percent of GDP would reduce exports by about 3 percent in the first year and .66 percent per annum over a 10-year period. When combined with a negative terms-of-trade effect equal to 1 percent of GDP, the appreciation is reduced by half and the impact on export growth rates reduced by 10 percent. 20. In the case of Turkey, the central bank has tightened policy rates, while in Bulgaria the rise in interest rates is an automatic response to capital inflows by the country’s currency board system.

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21. The current-account deficit of the United States came in at $805 billion or about 6.4 percent of U.S. GDP. 22. These estimates are based on three scenarios. In the first, the current-account deficit is assumed to remain constant at 6 percent of GDP; nominal GDP is projected to increase by 5 percent per annum; and exchange rates and rates of return of U.S. and foreign assets are to remain constant. Because net returns fall to –1.2 percent of GDP, this implies an improvement in the U.S. current-account deficit equal to 1 percent of GDP. A second scenario assumes that the current-account deficit declines to 2.5 percent of GDP, implying a substantial improvement in the U.S. trade balance equal to 0.5 percentage point per year. In the third scenario, the rates of return on U.S. and foreign assets are assumed to equalize, increasing net debt-servicing costs to 2.1 percent of GDP. 23. Empirically, this willingness takes three principal forms. First, foreigners hold a higher share of relatively low-yield dollar-denominated assets than do Americans— reducing the overall earnings on their assets. Secondly, as recorded in the balance of payments, American investments abroad earn a significantly higher rate of return than do foreign investments in the United States (6.9 percent vs. 2.5 percent over the past 10 years). Finally, foreigners hold large quantities of dollars in cash, which earn no return. These three factors, in combination, mean that despite the negative net international asset position of the United States, the country continues to earn a small but positive net income from capital services. 24. Haussman and Sturzenegger (2005), in a controversial article, take this observation to an extreme. They argue that if the United States earns a positive return on its net foreign asset position, in economic terms, it must be positive. They propose to measure it as the net present value of the income stream recorded in the balance of payments. They then redefine the current-account balance as the change in that net asset position (effectively 20 times the annual change in income flow). Finally, they define the difference between this measure and the normal current account of the balance of payments as exports of “dark matter,” or know-how services embodied in FDI, insurance services provided by less risky U.S. assets, and liquidity services deriving from the quality of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. On this basis they compute that the net asset position of the United States was actually a small surplus in 2004. 25. Interestingly, such a change in the willingness of investors to hold U.S. assets would cause Haussman and Sturzenegger’s (2005) definition of the net international investment position of the United States to deteriorate by 10 percent of GDP, and would imply an equal fall in their estimate of the current account—highlighting the sensitivity of their measures to interest rates and unmeasurable confidence factors. 26. While economic factors certainly have played a role (the erosion of market share among high-income countries mirrors earlier developments), political factors also played a role. In particular, the imports of oil importers from the United States declined substantially in the period 2001/2. While growth rates since then have been on a par

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with other high-income countries, the lost market share has not been recouped. 27. Between 1972 and 2004, China went from exporting 510 separate goods to 10,199 (Borda and Weinstein 2004). 28. In the case of China, many behind-the-border changes were precipitated by the country’s desire to join the World Trade Organization. Similarly, many reforms in the European transition countries were motivated by the desire of those countries to join the European Union. 29. Econometric estimates suggest that over the past three years the underlying trend growth in China was 11.7 percent. WTO accession contributed an additional 12 percent to Chinese export growth. Market growth was worth 6.3 percent. Relative price changes reduced the total by 4.2 percent (Martel Garcia, forthcoming). 30. Only countries where the estimated impact equals or exceeds 1 percent of GDP are shown. 31. There are a number of kinds of avian influenza that are carried by many wild bird species with no apparent harm. Some of these make other bird species, notably domestic poultry, sick. Typically, the birds are mildly sick, but the H5N1 virus that is currently circulating is relatively dangerous for domestic birds. Most forms of avian influenza viruses are highly species-specific and do not normally infect people. However, H5N1 has crossed the species barrier to infect humans on three occasions in recent years—in Hong Kong in 1997 and during the current outbreak, which began in December 2003. While deadly (115 human deaths among 208 confirmed cases as of May 12, 2006), the virus in its current form is not easily transmitted to or between humans (WHO 2006). 32. Direct costs are small. Six percent of the world population of domestic poultry amounts to some 170 million birds. At a retail price of $2 per bird, and assuming (based on the Vietnamese experience) 0.75 cents in costs associated with monitoring and culling infected birds, this would amount to about $760 million worldwide, or about 0.02 percent of world GDP. 33. While the poultry sector represents less than 0.2 percent of the GDP of high-income countries, its share in developing countries is about 1.2 percent of GDP, rising to 2.4 percent of GDP in the East Asia and Pacific region. 34. The World Health Organization (2003) estimates between 200,000 and 500,000 deaths each year. Osterholm (2005) reports a higher death toll of between 1 and 1.5 million people worldwide from influenza infections or related complications, making it the third most deadly infectious disease after AIDS and tuberculosis, but ahead of malaria. 35. McKibbin and Sidorenko also model an “Ultra” flu, which is not based on any known previous pandemic, but has the characteristics of the Spanish flu, plus higher mortality for older people. This simulation is not reported here. 36. McKibbin and Sidorenko’s model has relatively limited country coverage: 20 economies. comprised of 10 high-income countries and 1 residual high-income region; 5 low- and middle-income countries in East Asia and one in South Asia; and three additional developing regions. Regional aggregates in table 1.7 are approximations based on the countries and regions modeled.

P R O S P E C T S

References Baffes, John. 2005. “Oil Spills over to Other Commodities.” Unpublished paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. Barry, John M. 2005. The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague in History. London: Penguin. Beccue, Phillip C., and Hillard G. Huntington. 2005. “An Assessment of Oil Market Disruption Risks.” Energy Modeling Forum, Stanford University. October. http://www.stanford.edu/group/EMF/publications/doc/ EMFSR8.pdf Billings, Molly. 1997. “The Influenza Pandemic of 1918.” Stanford University. http://www.stanford.edu/group/ virus/uda/. Borda, C., and D. C. Weinstein. 2004. “Globalization and the Gains from Variety.” NBER Working Paper 10314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Buiter, Willem. 2006. “Dark Matter or Cold Fusion.” Global Economics Paper 136. Goldman Sachs, New York. January. Cline, William. 2005. The United States as a Debtor Nation. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. Devarajan, Shantayanan, and Ejaz Ghani. 2006. “Oil Price Shocks, Fiscal Adjustment, and Poverty Reduction in Asia.” Paper presented at the SAARC finance seminar on “Current Oil Price Shock and Its Implications on South Asian Economies,” Colombo, Sri Lanka. January. Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, and Cristina Savescu. 2006. “Simulations of Economic Impacts of Official Development Assistance and Oil Price Increases: Ethiopia.” Unpublished paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. Estrella, Arturo. 2005. “Why does the yield curve predict output and inflation?” Economic Journal. July. Frankel, Jeffrey A., and David Romer. 1999. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” American Economic Review 89 (3): 379–99. Higgins, Mathew, Thomas Klitgaard, and Cedric Tille. 2005. “The Implications of Rising U.S. International Liabilities.” Current Economic Issues (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) 11 (5). December. Hausmann, Ricardo, and Federico Sturzenegger. 2005. “Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations.” Unpublished paper, Harvard University. Hummels, D., and P. J. Klenow. 2004. “The Variety and Quality of a Nation’s Exports.” Unpublished paper. Purdue University and Stanford University. Ibrahim, Izani, and Craig MacPhee. 2003. “Export Externalities and Economic Growth.” Journal of International Trade & Economic Development 12 (3): 257–83. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2006. World Economic Outlook. IMF: Washington, DC.

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Kehoe, T. J., and K. J. Ruhl. 2003. “How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?” Research Department Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Laster, David, and Robert N. McCauley. 1994. “Making Sense of the Profits of Foreign Firms in the United States.” Quarterly Review (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) 19 (2). Martel Garcia, Fernando. 2006. “Understanding Long Export Booms: The Case of China.” Unpublished paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. Mataloni, Raymond J. 2001. “An Examination of the Low Rates of Return of Foreign-Owned U.S. Companies.” Survey of Current Business (March): 55–73. McKibbin, Warwick, and Alexandra Sidorenko. 2006. “Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza.” Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney Australia. Newfarmer, Richard, ed. 2005. Trade, Doha, and Development: A Window into the Issues. World Bank, Washington, DC. Osterholm, Michael T. 2005. “Preparing for the Next Pandemic.” New England Journal of Medicine 352 (May): 1839–42. Roubini, Nouriel, and Brad Setser. 2005. “Will the Bretton Woods 2 Regime Unravel Soon? The Risk of a Hard Landing in 2005–2006.” Paper presented at conference on “Revived Bretton Woods System: A New Paradigm for Asian Development,” San Francisco, February 4. Setser, Brad. 2006. “On the Origins of Dark Matter.” January http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/113810. Siu, Alan, and Y. C. Richard Wong. 2004. “Economic Impact of SARS: The Case of Hong Kong.” Hong Kong Institute of Economics and Business Strategy, Working Paper 1084. April. World Bank. 2005a. Global Development Finance 2005: Mobilizing Finance and Managing Vulnerability. World Bank: Washington, DC. ———. 2005b. Global Economic Prospects 2006: Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration. Washington, DC. World Health Organization. 2003. “Influenza.” Fact Sheet 211, Geneva. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/ fs211/en/index.html. ———. 2004. “World Is Ill-Prepared for “Inevitable” Flu Pandemic.” Bulletin of the World Health Organization 82 (4): 317–18. ———. 2006. “Avian Influenza (“bird flu”) Fact Sheet.” http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/index.html. February 2006.

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.

2 The Growth and Transformation of Private Capital Flows

I

n 2005, global capital flows to developing countries continued to grow at a record pace. Net private flows increased sharply by $94 billion, reaching $491 billion, reinforcing a trend underway since 2002. The sharp rise came despite lingering uncertainty about the impact of higher oil prices, rising global interest rates, and growing global payments imbalances. The flows have been broad-based, with bond issuance, bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), and portfolio equity all recording substantial gains (figure 2.1). During the year, governments and private entities took advantage of favorable financial-market conditions to refinance their debt or prefund future borrowing. As a result, foreign currency–denominated bond issuance by governments and the private sector rose to a record gross of $131 billion in 2005. The spread on emerging market debt dropped to historic lows, averaging 306 basis points for 2005, compared with the 2004 average of 423 basis points and the recent high of 832 basis points, recorded in September 2002. Meanwhile, local-currency bond markets in Asia and Latin America attracted substantial interest from international investors in search of higher yields and potential gains from currency appreciation. Accounting for the growth in recent years have been the policy responses to the financial crises of the 1990s, a favorable environment for mergers and acquisitions, a wave of privatizations, and innovations in the global marketplace. In the aftermath of the financial crises of the 1990s, many major emerging markets adopted more flexible exchange rate policies, while strengthening domestic financial markets and relaxing controls

on cross-border financial flows. Several countries, especially in East Asia, made concerted efforts to accumulate precautionary reserves and build their domestic bond markets to better manage risks associated with foreign portfolio flows. The favorable environment for cross-border mergers and acquisitions and a new wave of privatizations, particularly in the new member countries of the European Union (EU), pushed FDI to an all-time high of $238 billion. The increase raised the share of developing countries in global FDI flows from 13 percent in 2000 to 24 percent in 2005. During the year, share prices quoted on emerging market stock exchanges turned in a stellar performance, receiving record flows of portfolio equity. Stock issuance by emerging market countries in international financial markets also grew substantially. Figure 2.1 Net private debt flows to developing countries, 1991–2005 $ billions 500 Total net private capital flows 100 300 200 Net equity flows 100

Net debt flows

0 –100 1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System.

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Financial innovations in global financial markets—notably local-currency financing and structured finance instruments—have allowed investors to assume greater exposures in emerging markets. The euro has emerged as a major international reserve currency and as an increasingly important issuing currency for governments and the corporate sector in developing countries. This chapter provides updates on all types of private capital flows to developing countries, exploring some implications of the increased importance of the euro, the fast-growing credit derivatives markets, and the increasing reliance of many countries on local-currency funding. The key messages emerging from this review are highlighted below. •

•

44

Developing countries have benefited from strong economic growth and sounder macroeconomic policies, leading to marked improvements in their external payment positions. Despite the easing of financing conditions, however, developing countries’ access to international capital markets remains limited. Private capital flows to the developing world are concentrated in just a few countries. Of the 136 that report to the World Bank, 51 continue to rely primarily or entirely on official sources of cross-border finance. If they are to attract and absorb private capital effectively for long-term growth and development, they will need to, inter alia, further develop their domestic financial markets and institutions. Local-currency bond markets in developing countries have, since the crises of the 1990s, emerged as a major source of long-term development finance and are now the fastest growing segment of emerging market debt. Driven largely by domestic institutional and individual investors, these markets grew from $1.3 trillion at the end of 1997 to $3.5 trillion in September 2005. However, bringing the localcurrency bond markets in emerging economies up to the standards of mature markets will require concerted efforts. The East Asian countries may provide a case worth watching in this regard, given their early successes. Localcurrency debt markets also present new challenges for policy makers. Professionalism in debt management will be needed to manage currency and duration risks associated with

•

•

burgeoning government debt denominated in local currencies. Credit default swaps (CDSs)—derivatives that provide some insurance to the buyer against defaults and other adverse credit events—are being applied in new ways in emerging securities markets—among them those of Bulgaria, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, and the Russian Federation. This development has important implications for the pricing and supply of debt capital to developing countries, because it offers investors another way of assuming exposure to emerging market risk and enhances the markets’ ability to gauge credit risk. Also, by transferring to other market participants some of the credit risk that banks incur in their lending and trading activities, credit derivatives have altered, perhaps fundamentally, the traditional approach to credit-risk management. Presently, only a few banks engage in CDSs in emerging markets, posing the risk that a failure of a major player could create broader risks. Trading takes place largely in the private over-thecounter market and thus lacks transparency. Regulators in developing countries need to build their capacity to monitor CDS transactions and to define a clear line of regulatory responsibility and expertise so as to better manage the associated risks. The strong recovery of FDI in developing countries over the past two years reflects healthy global economic conditions and a better investment climate in developing countries. While increased corporate profits, favorable financing conditions, and higher stock-market valuations fueled cross-border investments globally, many developing countries managed to attract high levels of FDI through privatizations, mergers, and acquisitions. Almost all developing countries experienced higher FDI inflows, but the increase was especially notable in new members of the European Union. In China, liberalization of the financial sector and accession to the World Trade Organization led to several important privatization deals in the banking sector in 2005. Many middle-income countries received high levels of services-related FDI through privatizations, while FDI to low-income countries grew principally because of high commodity prices.

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In the years ahead, policy makers in developing countries will have to remain alert to certain risks and vulnerabilities. The current glut of liquidity in the global financial markets may lead to a buildup of risky exposures, as investors in search of higher yields settle for borrowers of lower creditworthiness. The locus of credit risk in developing countries is shifting as private corporates, rather than sovereigns, are emerging as the main borrowers in global credit markets. Political risk has emerged once again as a key concern for emerging market investors. In several countries, populist candidates will stand for election in 2006, raising the fear of policy changes that could reverse the gains from recent fiscal stabilization and liberalization measures. Meanwhile, the traditional policy discipline and frameworks agreed to with multilateral lenders are becoming less prominent with the dwindling need for official financing. The cumulative risks are particularly pronounced in oil-importing countries like Turkey and the Philippines, which have suffered from recent oil price increases without benefiting from the commodity price boom.

Private debt market developments in 2005

I

n 2005, net private debt flows to developing countries increased sharply to an estimated $192 billion, up from $148 billion in 2004 and $85 billion in 2003 (table 2.1). The net increase reflected an increase in gross financing through bonds and syndicated loans, which set record highs, with flows 54 percent higher in 2005 than in 2004 (table 2.2). New bank lending was particularly strong, swelling to $198 billion in 2005 from $112 billion the year before. Bank lending now accounts for 60 percent of gross debt flows and more than two-thirds of the increase from 2004 (table 2.2). Driving the strong upswing in foreign private debt flows are abundant global liquidity, steady improvements in developing-country credit quality, lower yields in developed countries, and continued broadening of the investor base for emerging market assets. Upgrades in credit ratings have outpaced downgrades for eight consecutive quarters, with 46 upgrades and 18 downgrades in

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2005. As a result, foreign private debt flows have become more soundly based and resilient to swings in external financing conditions.

Bond issuance set records in 2005 The investment community now accepts emerging market debt as a bona fide asset class that is becoming less volatile. The spread on such debt has dropped to historic lows, with an average of just 306 basis points in 2005, compared with 423 basis points in 2004 (box 2.1). In 2005, developing countries raised a record $131 billion in 367 bond issues, an increase in proceeds of 28 percent from 2004. Net issuance of foreign currency–denominated bonds last year amounted to $62 billion, less than half of the total raised. Table 2.1 Net private debt flows to developing countries, 2002–5 $ billions

Total net debt flows By region: East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa By component Bond financing Bank financing Other financing Short-term debt financing

2002

2003

2004

2005

5.5

85.1

144.8

191.6

–2.4 24.9 –21.4 4.8 2.4 –2.8

9.3 64.7 5.4 2.1 2.1 1.5

43.3 93.7 –1.0 2.3 6.7 2.8

45.8 113.8 20.5 4.6 3.0 3.8

10.8 –2.8 –6.8 4.2

26.4 9.8 –5.9 54.9

43.0 39.4 –4.6 70.8

61.7 64.4 –6.7 69.3

Source: World Bank Debt Reporting System.

Table 2.2 Gross market-based debt flows to developing countries, 2002–5 $ billions

Total gross flows

2002

2003

2004

2005

120.8

168.9

214.3

329.1

Bonds East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

51.7 12.5 13.8 21.1 2.7 0.2 1.5

82.2 11.6 26.5 38.8 1.0 0.5 3.9

102.4 15.7 38.2 35.9 5.6 5.1 2.0

130.9 20.3 54.7 43.0 5.4 5.3 2.3

Bank lending East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

69.1 21.5 16.8 18.5 5.8 1.7 4.9

86.9 26.9 22.2 20.6 4.6 4.0 8.5

111.8 19.5 37.8 29.9 9.7 7.0 7.9

198.1 34.5 77.6 46.3 15.7 12.2 11.9

Sources: Dealogic Bondware and Loanware and World Bank staff.

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Box 2.1 The emerging bond market enters the mainstream

E

merging market debt is heading firmly into the mainstream of global bond trading. The traditionally high idiosyncratic risk associated with emerging market bonds has declined significantly since 2002, a trend reflected in the spreads of such bonds over U.S. Treasuries. Four important features of this transformation are: •

•

•

First, emerging market bond spreads are moving increasingly in tandem with U.S. high-yield bonds (see figure at top left). In the midst of uncertainty about the fate of the Brazilian economy in 1998, emerging market spreads were 1,200 basis points. At the end of 2005 they were just over 200 basis points.a The decline occurred despite Argentina’s default in 2002, a period of tightening of U.S. monetary policy during 2004–5, and turmoil in the U.S. corporate bond market caused by downgrades of car makers. Second, volatility in emerging market bond spreads, as measured by the standard deviation of Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) spreads, has declined significantly since 1999 (see top right figure on next page). Third, emerging bond indices are becoming more strongly correlated with both global and U.S. bond indices (see figure at lower left). The strength of the correlation between emerging market and global bond markets has been increasing for five years.

•

Fourth, the extraordinary narrowing of spreads has been accompanied by a parallel move to smaller daily fluctuations—both lower variability and fewer extreme changes (see figure at lower right). The frequency distribution of changes in daily spreads seems to be best characterized as nonnormal, having fatter and asymmetric tails (kurtosis and skewness). A measure of the nonnormality, the Jacques-Bera test,b indicates that the distribution became more normal in 2002–2004 because of a decline in excess kurtosis, although non-normality was higher again in 2005 because kurtosis and skewness were both higher. Skewness was significantly negative in several years, including 2005, indicating that longer tails to the left were probably caused by the decline in spreads.c

Source: World Bank staff calculations based on various data sources. a. The EMBIG is affected by the removal of defaulted bonds from the index; adjusting for these changes, however, gives the same picture of a dramatic decline in spreads. b. The Jacques-Bera test statistic is (N/6)(.25K2+S2), where N is the number of observations, K is excess kurtosis, and S is skewness. It is distributed as a chi-square with 2 degrees of freedom, so that a value in excess of 6 indicates rejection of normality at the 5 percent level. c. The distribution of daily changes in EM bond spreads is becoming more normal, in the sense that the excess kurtosis displayed in changes in spreads has been declining roughly since 2001, although it has increased slightly in the 2004–5 period. The standard deviation has also declined significantly from a high of 21.8 in 2001 to 5.7 in 2005. Over this period, the distribution tended toward a normal distribution, since the Jacques-Bera test statistic has been declining, with the exception of 2005.

Bond issuance was concentrated. Ten countries (Brazil, China, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and República Bolivariana de Venezuela) accounted for 69 percent of the issuance.1 Forty developing countries accessed the international bond market, compared with 34 in 2002 and 2003. Countries from Europe and Central Asia accounted for 42 percent of total issuance in 2005, with Poland, the Russian Federation, and Turkey leading the pack. Three of the five largest issues in the region were by Russian firms, including two U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds issued by the financial entity Gazstream SA. In Poland, 13 sovereign issues, totaling $12 billion, were issued to refinance the country’s Paris Club debt. Four of these were publicly issued in the euro market, two in the global dollar market, and four in the Swiss franc market.

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Latin America and the Caribbean region accounted for about 33 percent of total issuance, with Brazil’s government being the most active borrower. In 2005, the Brazilian government exchanged its outstanding C-bonds for U.S.-dollardenominated global bonds having a face value of $4.5 billion and a maturity of 12 years, retiring a third of its Brady debt. The Southern Copper Corporation carried out a notable transaction in Mexico, issuing two U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds, one with a maturity of 10 years ($200 million), and the other 30 years ($600 million). The average maturity of fixed-rate issues by Latin American firms in 2005 was 13.2 years. Countries in East Asia and the Pacific issued bonds to borrow $ 20.3 billion, with China being the major issuer through government-owned banks. The Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank each issued $1 billion in

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Convergence of emerging market bond spreads with U.S. high-yield bonds, December 1998–December 2005

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Decline in emerging market bond volatility, 1994–2004 Rolling 36-month period; standard deviations Basis points 345 295 245 195 145 95 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Sources: JPMorgan Chase and World Bank staff calculations.

Sources: JPMorgan Chase and Merrill Lynch.

Correlation of emerging market bond indices with global and U.S. indices, 1998–2005

Distribution of daily changes in emerging market bond spreads

Rolling 36-month period, correlation

Frequency

1.0

160

0.8

EMBI, US Broad 120

0.6 EMBI, Global Broad 0.4

80

0.2 0.0 40

– 0.2 – 0.4 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Sources: JPMorgan Chase and World Bank staff calculations.

10-year U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds. In September 2005, the government of the Philippines completed its 2005 funding program by successfully issuing a 10-year U.S.-dollar-denominated bond for $1 billion at a spread of 430 basis points over 10-year U.S. Treasuries. Sovereign borrowers accounted for 46 percent of total issuance (figure 2.2) in 2005. They took advantage of favorable market conditions to refinance costlier debt and prefund future funding requirements. Private sector issues increased as well, accounting for a third of issuance in 2005. Private

2005

0 –55

–40

–25

–10

5

20

35

Sources: JPMorgan Chase and World Bank staff calculations.

sector issuers were able to borrow on better terms, thanks to the convergence of spreads for private and sovereign issuers since 2003 (figure 2.3). In 2005, bond issuance covered the entire credit spectrum, but almost half of the increase in 2005 was accounted for by borrowers rated below investment grade. Investment-grade-rated borrowers accounted for 36 percent of 2005 issues, compared to about 51 percent in 2002 (figure 2.4). Since late 2002, the favorable financing environment has reduced the burden of arranging new financing for many borrowers—among them

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Figure 2.2 Emerging market bond issuers by type, 2002–5

Figure 2.4 Bond market financing by risk category, 2002–5

$ billions

Share, $ billions

160

100

Others

140

Private

120

Public

Unrated

80

Sovereign/Govt.

Non-investment grade

60

100 80

40

60

20

Investment grade

40 0 2002

20

2005

Source: Dealogic Bondware and Loanware.

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: Dealogic Bondware; Bank of International Settlements.

Syndicated bank loans showed a cyclical recovery Figure 2.3 Average spreads on new bond issues, 2001–5 Primary market spreads (basis points) 600

Sovereign/Public Private

500 400 300 200 100

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Sources: Dealogic Bondware and World Bank staff calculations.

Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines, and Poland, all of which were able to prefund their 2005 financing needs before mid-year. By late 2005, some sovereigns were well advanced in financing their 2006 and 2007 requirements. Infrequent and first-time borrowers, such as Pakistan and Vietnam, were able to tap international debt markets at attractive rates during 2005. Large institutional investors (such as public pension funds and endowment funds) as well as Asian central banks are now interested in investing in emerging market debt because of fundamental improvements in the economies of major developing countries.

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Syndicated bank lending to developing countries set records in 2005. Gross bank lending of $198 billion, an increase of 74 percent over 2004, involved 1,261 transactions in a broad range of sectors, dominated by oil and gas projects and oil import financing. Europe and Central Asia accounted for about 39 percent of the gross flows (table 2.3), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (23 percent) and East Asia (17 percent). Like FDI and bond issues, lending was highly concentrated, with the top 10 countries (Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey) receiving 70 percent of the total bank lending to developing countries. Average gross flows to the top 10 grew by more than 107 percent, with lending to Thailand increasing by 455 percent in 2005. Sixty-seven countries, mostly lowincome countries rated below investment grade or unrated, received no new loans at all. In 2005, short-term debt to developing countries increased by $61.9 billion to $556.7 billion, an increase of 12.5 percent from 2004. China accounted for 41 percent of the increase, with Brazil, Malaysia, the Russian Federation, and Turkey accounting for most of the balance. During 2000–5, short-term loans grew considerably from the $316.4 billion recorded in 2000, with East Asia and Europe and Central Asia accounting for almost all of the increase, while Latin America experienced a drop of 16 percent. (In 2005, short-term lending to Europe and Central Asia increased by 21 percent). Although global short-term debt has

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risen, its size relative to developing countries’ foreign exchange reserves declined from 48 percent in 2000 to around 28 percent at the end of 2005. The uses of financing raised by syndicated bank loans vary considerably by region. Most lending to the Russian Federation, which accounted for half of all flows to Europe and Central Asia, was for oil and gas transactions, with the Gazprom acquisition ($13.1 billion) accounting for almost two-thirds of the Russian total. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the major borrowers were petroleum companies (Petrobras in Brazil and Pemex in Mexico) seeking to refinance existing loans or to finance trade. In East Asia, China received $18.5 billion (54 percent of the gross flows to East Asia and the Pacific) for a broad range of transactions including oil and gas, property, project finance, and purchase of aircraft. In Thailand, telecommunication companies and utilities were the major borrowers. In South Asia, India received $11 billion, or 91 percent of gross flows to the region. Proceeds, most intermediated through Indian banks, were used for projects such as a new airport in Bangalore and trade financing. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the major borrowers were central banks, which refinanced existing borrowing at more attractive rates. In the Middle East and North Africa, Turkey was the major borrower, with almost all borrowing moving through Turkish banks for use as trade financing. In several new EU member countries, including Hungary and Slovenia, large financial and nonfinancial borrowers were able to borrow from banks at spreads close to levels paid by their western European counterparts. Most loans were denominated in euros. Banks also invested in eurodenominated debt instruments issued by Poland and Hungary. In Latin America, the oil and cement sectors secured exceptionally cheap loans.

The gap in access to credit persists Developing countries can be divided into three categories based on their degree and nature of access to global capital markets (table 2.4): •

Countries with access to bond markets. These are countries that have issued bonds regularly since 2002. Included in this group are eight countries that are the developing-country “stars” of the bond market—Chile, China, Hungary, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, the Russ-

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Table 2.3 Gross cross-border loan flows, 2005

Total East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and N. Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

No. of loans

Amount US$ millions

Amount %

Avg. loan size US$ millions

1,261 215 368 432 89 101 56

198,135 34,470 77,586 46,316 15,726 12,151 11,887

100.0 17.4 39.2 23.4 7.9 6.1 6.0

158 162 215 107 177 121 203

Source: World Bank staff calculations based on Dealogic Loanware data.

•

•

ian Federation, and Thailand. All are rated investment-grade, have significantly lower spreads than the overall developing-country average, and exhibit low volatility in spreads. Countries with access to bank lending only. This category comprises countries that lack access to bond markets because of inadequate legal and institutional regulations or an unstable macroeconomic environment. Although perceived as posing high credit risks, they can access bank credit because of welldefined revenue streams (such as exports and remittances) or their ability to securitize borrowing (often thanks to the presence of extractive industries). Countries with limited access to capital markets. These are countries with no access to either bond markets or medium- and longterm bank lending. They may have access to other types of private international finance, such as short-term loans or FDI. Countries in this group rely mainly on official financing for their long-term capital needs.

Some 52 developing countries have accessed the global bond markets each year since 2002. The number has not risen, despite the favorable financing environment. Bond financing is more concentrated than bank financing (figure 2.5). In 2005, 15 countries alone accounted for about 80 percent of bond volume. Non-investment-grade and unrated borrowers, who accounted for some 49 percent of total gross bond flows to emerging markets in 2002, saw their share increase to about 64 percent in 2005. Borrowers in bond markets from 10 major emerging market economies, including Brazil, República Bolivariana de Venezuela, and Turkey accounted for the bulk of the rise in highrisk issuance in 2005.

49

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table 2.4 Countries’ access to international capital markets by intermediaries, 2002–5 Countries with access to bond markets

Credit ratingsa

Argentina Barbados Belize Brazil Bulgaria Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Czech Republic Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. El Salvador Estonia Grenada Guatemala Hungary India Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Malaysia Mexico Morocco Oman Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Poland Romania Russia Serbia and Montenegro Slovak Republic South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Ukraine Uruguay Venezuela, RB Vietnam

B3 Baa2 Caa3 Ba3 Ba1 Baa1 A2 Ba2 Ba1 Ba3 A1 B3 Caa1 Ba1 Baa3 A1 BBa2 A1 Baa3 B2 B+ B1 Baa3 Baa3 A2 B3 A3 BB+ A3 Baa1 Ba1 Baa1 B2 Ba1 Ba3 B1 A2 Ba1 Baa2 BBA2 Baa1 BBBaa1 Baa2 Baa2 Ba3 B1 B3 B2 Ba3

Countries with access to bank lending onlyb

Credit ratingsa

Albania Algeria Angola Azerbaijan Bangladesh Belarus Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Burkina Faso Cameroon Congo, Rep. Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Guinea Honduras Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Liberia Maldives Mali Mauritius Mozambique Nicaragua Nigeria Papua New Guinea Senegal Seychelles St. Lucia Sudan Tanzania Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Vanuatu Yemen, Rep. Zambia

NR NR NR BB NR NR B3 B3 A2 B BNR NR NR NR NR B+ NR B2 NR NR NR NR NR B Baa2 B Caa1 BBB1 B+ NR NR NR NR B2 NR NR NR NR

Countries with no access to private debt marketsc

Credit ratingsa

Armenia Benin Bhutan Burundi Cambodia Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Dominica Eritrea Fiji Gambia, The Georgia Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mauritania Moldova Mongolia Myanmar Nepal Niger Paraguay Rwanda Samoa São Tomé and Principe Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia St. Kitts and Nevis St. Vincent and the Grenadines Swaziland Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan Togo Tonga Uganda Zimbabwe

NR B+ NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR Ba2 NR B+ NR NR NR NR B NR NR Caa1 B1 NR NR NR Caa1 NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR

Sources: Dealogic Bondware and Loanware, Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, and World Bank staff calculations. Note: This table classifies the 135 countries that report to the World Bank’s Debtor Reporting System (DRS) by accessibility to international capital markets across bond and bank segments (based on data cover transactions on international loan syndications and bond issues reported by capital-market sources, including Dealogic Bondware and Loanware). Countries are divided into three main categories: countries with access to bond markets, including all the countries that have issued bonds between 2002 and 2005; countries with access to bank lending only; countries that have no access to either bond or bank lending, including countries that primarily rely on official financing for their financing needs. a. Long-term sovereign foreign currency debt ratings, as of February 3, 2006. Moody’s ratings were used for most of the countries. However, S&P and Fitch ratings were used for countries that are not rated by Moody’s, including Benin, Ghana, Grenada, Macedonia, FYR, Mali, Senegal, and Serbia and Montenegro. NR indicates countries that are not rated by either Moody’s or S&P. b. For analytical purposes, bank lending in this table is only referred to as medium- and long-term lending (excluding short-term lending that has less than 1 year of maturity). c. The use of the term, “no access to capital markets,” is not intended to imply that all countries in this category do not have access to other types of international private capital, such as FDI and portfolio equity. International capital defined here only refers to the bond and bank segments of the market.

50

T H E

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

Share of top five countries (% of total) Bond Bank 65

55

45

35 1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

basis points from June 2004 to December 2005. However, the underlying pricing benchmark, usually the six-month Libor rate, rose by almost 285 basis points, in step with the short-term U.S. interest rates. In the end, this led to an increase of about 235 basis points in absolute borrowing costs over the cost in June 2004. The vast majority of developing countries continue to rely on bank credit for their financing needs, despite rising costs. Information asymmetry is one reason why bank lending is so much more common than bond financing. Because of their close relations with clients and their ability to monitor clients’ businesses, banks are better positioned than bond investors to gather information on prospective borrowers, enabling banks to reach out to more borrowers. Higher-risk borrowers have no alternative to bank financing. Between 2002 and 2005, some 80 percent of bank loans were made to borrowers that had no credit rating or were rated below investment grade. High-risk borrowers use such loans to finance trade or specific projects, refinance debt, and fund day-to-day operations (figure 2.7). Using the bond markets for such core activities is not an option for high-risk borrowers. Since 2002, the share of bank credit attributed to financing core activities has been rising, partly because borrowers that could make the transition to bond financing did so, thereby increasing the share of core financing activities in remaining bank credit. Although the average cost of bank borrowing has increased, the average maturity of bank loans has grown as well—by about four years since

Figure 2.5 Concentration in bond and bank financing, 1993–2003 75

O F

2003

Source: World Bank staff calculations based on Dealogic Bondware and Loanware data.

The difference between the cost of bond and bank financing narrowed substantially in 2005 due to movements in spreads over benchmark pricing and changes in the benchmark rates (figure 2.6). For bond financing, spreads declined to an historic low in 2005, while the underlying benchmark longterm rate (10-year U.S. Treasury bonds) remained depressed despite 10 hikes in short-term rates since June 2004. At the end of December 2005, the longterm rate was about 4.48 percent, compared with 4.72 percent in June 2004, when short-term rates began their rise. These developments caused absolute borrowing costs to drop from 8.8 percent in June 2004 to 6.8 percent in December 2005. For bank lending, the decline in spreads was not as stark as for bond financing, falling only 50

Figure 2.6 Comparative cost of bond and bank financing, June 2004–December 2005 Spread and benchmark rates

Average cost of borrowing

Basis points

Percent

500

9

Bond benchmark

Bond market

400 Bank benchmark 7

300

Bond spread

200 5 100 0 June 2004

Bank spread

Sep. 2004

Dec. 2004

Mar. 2005

June 2005

Sep. 2005

Dec. 2005

Bank lending 3 June 2004

Sep. 2004

Dec. 2004

Mar. 2005

June 2005

Sep. 2005

Dec. 2005

Source: World Bank staff calculations based on Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan Chase data.

51

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 2.7 Bank financing raised for core activities, 2002–5 % of total bank financing raised 50 Acquisition Project finance 40

Refinancing debt

Portfolio equity showed major gains

General corp. purpose 30

Trade finance

20

10

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

Sources: Dealogic Loanware and World Bank staff calculations.

Figure 2.8 Bank credit for high-risk borrowers: rising rates but longer maturities, 2001–5

Sources: Dealogic Loanware and World Bank staff calculations.

2004 (figure 2.8). Loan maturities normally shrink as lending rates rise, suggesting that high-risk countries may now be willing to pay higher costs in return for longer maturities. Developing-country credit continued to improve in 2005, as rating agency upgrades handily outpaced downgrades. Moreover, the pace of credit upgrades is accelerating. Some 46 upgrades occurred in 2005, in contrast to 31 in 2004. Some countries enjoying upgrades are commodity exporters, (for example, Brazil, Mexico, the Russian Federation, and Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela). These economies paid down external

52

debt and built up substantial liquidity with commodity-driven windfall gains. Yet several net oil importers, such as Thailand and South Africa, also earned upgrades through strong growth and improved economic management.

Portfolio equity flows to developing countries made major gains in 2005. At $61 billion, flows were up sharply from $37 billion in 2004. The record gain was driven by a significant increase in international corporate equity placements in emerging markets and foreign investment in emerging market stocks. The revival of interest in emerging market equity can be traced to fundamental changes in emerging markets and to the growing popularity, among managers of large funds, of separate, actively managed emerging market portfolios. In 2005, as in the recent past, portfolio equity investments remained concentrated in major emerging markets. The Asia region continued to account for the lion’s share (about 63 percent) of total portfolio equity flows, with China, India, and Thailand together making up about 94 percent of the region’s total. Notwithstanding the fact that the Chinese stock market performed poorly over the last five years, China continues to attract portfolio equity flows through initial public offerings (IPOs). In 2005, China accounted for about 31 percent of the total equity flows to all developing countries and almost half of those to the Asia region. Greater investor interest in Brazil and Mexico increased the shares of Latin America slightly. Flows to Europe and Central Asia slumped to $2.3 billion from $4.2 billion the previous year, due to outflows from the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation. The volume of equity placements surged in 2005, as stock markets in emerging markets outpaced those elsewhere (box 2.2). Most of the portfolio equity investment in 2005 took place through international equity placements, which were up about 60 percent over the same period in 2004. After a slow period in the first quarter, issuance continued briskly throughout the year, on the strength of an expanded investor base and attractive valuations. Just 10 percent of the transactions, including a few large IPOs, accounted for 64 percent of the total volume. In 2005, IPOs accounted for about 63 percent of all emerging market equity transactions, up from 47 percent in

T H E

Box 2.2 in 2005

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Strong performance of emerging stock markets

E

merging stock markets performed exceptionally well in 2005. With an increase of about 32 percent in the MSCI Emerging Market Index, these stock markets outperformed most mature markets. However, stock prices were volatile, because of rising concern about inflation and the tightening of monetary policy in the United States and Europe. In 2005, emerging market equity eas-

ily outpaced other asset classes, including both bonds and equities. Stellar performers during 2005 included Brazil (43.5 percent), India (40.2 percent), Mexico (38.6 percent), the Russian Federation (69.8 percent), and Turkey (49.2 percent). Expectations of returns from emerging market equities in 2006 are subdued in the face of relatively high valuations.

Performance of global equity markets, 2002–5

Total returns from global capital markets in 2005

Jan. 2004 = 100

Topix MSCI Emerging Market

200

EM equities MSCI Eurozone

160

GLOBAL MSCI Topix

120

FTSE 100

EMBIG EURO gov. bond S&P 500

S&P 500

ELMI+

80

US gov. bond US HY

40 Jan. 2002

July 2002

Jan. 2003

July 2003

Jan. 2004

July 2004

Jan. 2005

July 2005

Sources: Bloomberg and World Bank staff calculations.

2004. Asian countries accounted for a majority of these transactions. China alone accounted for about 21 percent of global IPO activities in 2005 and almost 61 percent of the total in emerging markets (figure 2.9). Many of these IPOs involved sales of stakes in underperforming state-owned banks and other financial institutions. Among the efforts was a jumbo IPO by China Construction Bank, which raised $9.2 billion. Revival of interest in local equity placement was evident in Latin America, where more than $5.5 billion was raised on local equity markets in 2005. Issuance volume, although still relatively low, contrasted markedly with the negligible activity in the region’s equity markets over the past several years. Issuance in emerging Europe was dominated by the Russian Federation, which accounted for about 64 percent of the regional total. Most equity issues in emerging Europe took the form of depository receipts and IPOs issued by companies in the communications sector, along with a few of-

Dec. 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

% change in local currency

Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase, and World Bank staff calculations.

ferings by companies in the oil and gas sector. In Sub-Saharan Africa, only South Africa had equity offerings, where shares of mining companies that are world leaders in their sector were an attractive destination for foreign portfolio investment. In recent years, major institutional investors in the United States and elsewhere have gradually increased their international stock holdings, including stocks from emerging markets (table 2.5). The trend has accelerated since 2003, with international markets generating higher adjusted returns than the U.S. market. At the end of 2004, financial assets under institutional management (pension, insurance, and mutual funds) totaled $46 trillion,2 of which the United States accounted for $20.7 trillion. Allocation to international equity ranged from a low of 13 percent in the United States to 40 percent in the Netherlands. Because the United States accounts for such a large share of international financial assets, the recent increase in U.S. managers’ allocations to international markets,

53

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 2.9 IPO activities in emerging market countries 2001–5 $ billions

No. of transactions 140

35 Others 30

China

clude robust global growth, increased corporate profits, favorable financing conditions, and higher stock market valuations, which have fueled crossborder mergers and acquisitions. Factors specific to developing countries have also been at play:

120 No. of IPO offerings

25

100

20

80

15

60

10

40

5

20

0

•

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

•

2005

Source: Dealogic Loanware and World Bank staff calculations.

although small in percentage terms,3 represents a major increase in flows into emerging market equities. The year also brought a large increase in retail investments in emerging markets through emerging market stock funds. The availability of exchangetraded funds has made it much easier for private individuals to invest in emerging markets

FDI grew through privatizations and expansion of the European Union FDI flows to developing countries continued to grow in 2005, reaching a record level of $237.5 billion, or about 2.8 percent of developing countries’ aggregate GDP (table 2.6). Much of the momentum derives from the same factors that account for the strong recovery of FDI at the global level (which totaled $959.4 billion in 2005, up sharply from $666.5 billion in 2004).4 Those factors in-

Table 2.5 Asset allocation of major international pension funds, 2004 Share of total Country

Australia Japan Netherlands Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States

Domestic Equity

International equity

Domestic bonds

International bonds

Cash

Other

31 29 7 21 13 39 47

22 16 40 16 14 28 13

17 26 7 29 34 23 33

5 11 32 26 10 1 1

6 11 4 2 8 2 1

19 7 10 6 21 7 5

Sources: International Financial Services, London, Fund Management, August 2005.

54

•

Global economic growth has recently been much more favorable to the developing world, bringing with it a commodity price boom and generally higher developing-country growth. Rapid growth makes developing countries attractive destinations for global FDI, particularly the market-seeking investments that have become the largest share of global FDI flows since the late 1990s. Corporate profits have risen in developing countries (UNCTAD 2005). In 2005, income generated from FDI in developing countries climbed to $120 billion from $80 billion in 2002. Approximately $45 billion of the 2005 total was reinvested. The investment climate in many developing countries, including low-income countries, has improved over the years (World Bank 2005). Many countries have revised their policies toward FDI to make them more favorable (UNCTAD 2004). After a slow down, privatizations and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals gained momentum in 2005, bringing in large amounts of FDI.

The investment climate improved in many developing countries A better investment climate in many developing countries played a role in the recent rapid growth of FDI. Many low- and middle-income countries have taken steps, either unilaterally or in compliance with multilateral and regional agreements, to strengthen their foreign investment policies by easing sectoral restrictions and improving corporate governance (World Bank 2005; UNCTAD 2004). At the same time, better macroeconomic conditions, such as higher growth rates, increased openness to trade, lower external debt, and exchange rate stability made investments in developing countries less risky. Countries with a better investment climate managed to attract higher levels of FDI flows as a percentage of their GDP (figure 2.10). The key policy implications for countries attempting to attract FDI are to create a better in-

T H E

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Table 2.6 Net FDI flows to developing countries, 2000–5 $ billions

Total East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Low-income countries Middle-income countries Global FDI Flows

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

168.8 44.3 30.2 79.3 4.2 4.4 6.5 10.7 158.2 1,388.4

176.9 48.5 32.7 71.1 3.4 6.1 15.0 12.8 164.1 807.8

160.3 57.2 34.9 48.2 3.7 6.7 9.5 15.0 145.3 721.0

161.6 59.8 35.9 41.1 5.6 5.7 13.6 14.9 146.7 623.8

211.5 64.6 62.4 60.8 5.3 7.2 11.3 17.0 194.5 666.5

237.5 65.3 75.6 61.4 9.1 8.4 17.6 23 214.4 959.4

Sources: World Bank, Global Development Finance, various years, and World Bank staff estimates for 2005. Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. e = estimate.

vestment climate by (a) improving access to adequate infrastructural and institutional facilities; (b) providing a stable, consistent, and transparent legal and regulatory framework and decreasing red tape; and (c) engaging in international governance arrangements. More importantly, developing countries should identify and develop those national competitive advantages that are likely to be of particular interest to foreign investors. In this context, countries should promote local skills development and encourage private sector development in order to broaden the opportunities for entrepreneurial activity. Countries also should strengthen their investment-promotion activities by establishing a broad-reaching agency that can list and market investment opportunities as well as provide information about doing business in the country.5 Countries should focus not only on policies to attract FDI, however, but also on the policies that are necessary for FDI to generate a positive development impact in the recipient country (see chapter 5).

Figure 2.10 Investment climate and FDI Institutional Investor Ratings Less risky

FDI to GDP ratio, 2003–4

50

3.0

40

2.5 2.0

30

1.5

20

1.0

10

0.5

0

0.0 Low-income countries 1995

Middle-income countries 2000

Low

Average

Good

Investment climate, 2000–2

2005

Source: Institutional Investor Magazine, various years; Global Development Finance, various years. Note: Investment climate (Institutional Investor Rating) is the average for the 2000–2 period; FDI to GDP ratio is the weighted average for 2000–4 for 86 countries, excluding major oil exporting countries.

ence between FDI flows to the top 10 recipient countries (2.7 percent of GDP) and other developing countries (2.4 percent in other low-income and 2.3 percent other middle-income countries) declined significantly over the years (figure 2.11).

The concentration of FDI has declined in recent years

Regional differences remain important

Although the top 10 countries (China, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Mexico, the Czech Republic, Poland, Chile, South Africa, India, and Malaysia) accounted for almost 65 percent of FDI to developing countries in 2005, that concentration is considerably less than the 75 percent share of the late 1990s. In addition, the share of low-income countries has increased steadily to almost 10 percent, mainly due to increases in resource-seeking FDI. Relative to the size of the economies, the differ-

Europe and Central Asia absorbed much of the increase in FDI in 2005. Investment in the region reached a record $76 billion in 2005, up from the previous record of $62 billion in 2004. High commodity prices encouraged significant increases in FDI in the resource-rich countries of the region, notably the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, while FDI flows to EU accession countries in the region also rose significantly. Several of the countries in the first wave of the recent

55

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 2.11 The concentration of FDI, 1995–2005 FDI to GDP ratio (%) 4.5

Top 10

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5

Middle-income countries

2.0 Low-income countries (excluding India)

1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005p

Sources: Global Development Finance, various years; World Development Indicators, various years; World Bank staff estimates for 2005. Note: Top 10 countres include China, Russian Federation, Brazil, Mexico, Czech Republic, Poland, Chile, South Africa, India and Malaysia. Low and Middle Income averages exclude these countries. p = projected.

EU expansion (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) continued to receive high levels of investment due to buoyant corporate profits and substantial reinvested earnings. Romania and Bulgaria, which are expected to join the European Union in 2007, also received large amounts of investment. In Latvia, and the Slovak Republic, FDI levels were stabilized, mainly supported by reinvested earnings. Progress in privatization of the telecom and financial sectors, along with early talks on EU accession, brought FDI flows to Turkey to an all-time high. FDI in Latin America stabilized at $61.4 billion in 2005. The continuing economic recovery in the United States and resource-seeking investors were the principal forces behind the high level. The impact of improved competitiveness was discernible in the increase in investment in manufacturing, while FDI in services stalled (except in Mexico’s financial sector). In Brazil, FDI in manufacturing increased, even as overall FDI decreased slightly because of political problems. Both Brazil and Mexico were among the top developing-country recipients of FDI, absorbing $15 billion and $18 billion respectively. Colombia experienced strong growth in FDI because of investments in coal and the sale of a major beer company.6 FDI in East Asia and the Pacific rose only slightly in 2005, in contrast to more vigorous growth in previous years. As expected, FDI flows

56

to China showed their first-ever decline. Although economic growth remains high and income from FDI increased, investors worried about declining profit margins from increased competition (IMF–World Bank Global Investor Survey 2005) and overheating of the economy (A.T. Kearney 2005). Reinvested earnings declined significantly in 2004. FDI in services, particularly in the financial sector, is on the upswing, as China opens up to meet the requirements of WTO membership (box 2.3). The country’s financial sector received more than $13 billion in investment in 2005, as banks (including banks from Chile and Brazil) positioned themselves by opening branches or representative offices.7 In contrast to the situation in China, FDI inflows to other Asian countries increased sharply, with Indonesia receiving $2.3 billon, largely related to the continuing privatization of state assets and acquisitions of private firms. Malaysia and Thailand also received substantial flows. FDI in South Asia also grew in 2005. In India, investment rose in industries such as cement, sugar, plastics and rubber, and hotels. In Pakistan, as in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, privatization and resource-related FDI led growth in FDI. Both the Arab Republic of Egypt and Tunisia received significant levels of FDI in energy and energy services. FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa increased significantly in 2005, mainly because of two large acquisitions in South Africa.8 The other countries in the region that continued to receive high levels of FDI were resource-rich countries, notably Nigeria and Angola.

A new wave of privatizations and cross-border mergers and acquisitions is cresting An important factor in the recovery of FDI from its low point in 2002–3 has been the growing number of privatizations, mergers, and acquisitions in developing countries (table 2.7). In the late 1990s, FDI flows to developing countries were boosted by such deals, particularly in Latin America and Eastern Europe; similarly, the slowdown in activity since 2000 has been reflected in lower FDI flows. Since 2004, however, several important privatizations have been completed, but their full effect on FDI was not necessarily immediate because of the general lag between approval of the investments and actual implementation of the projects.

T H E

Box 2.3

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Growing FDI in China’s banking sector

S

ince China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, foreign banks have been positioning themselves in China’s market, where restrictions on localcurrency transactions are expected to be removed by December 2006. Foreign banks can enter the market in one of two ways: they may either invest in a domestic bank and hold a minority share (less than 25 percent) or open up fully owned branches. To gain immediate accesses to a large branch network, many foreign banks are increasing their holdings in domestic banks (see table below). They have invested an estimated $17 billion since 2001.

Despite the opportunities that come with such a large and untapped market, investing in the sector is risky. There remains some uncertainty about the financial health of some banks, including high non-performing loans, and credit allocation culture and standards. But foreign banks seem to be striving to replicate the success of Bank of America, which bought shares in China Construction Bank before its very successful public offering in October 2005 in the Hong Kong stock market. Sources: “Bankable Prospects,” Business China (October 10, 2005); “Only the Bravest of Bankers Boldly Go to China,” USA Today (January 19, 2005).

Chinese banks

Date

Foreign investors

Bank of Communications Bank of China Bank of China Industrial and Commercial Bank of China China Construction Bank Huaxia bank Bank of China China Pacific Life Insurance

Aug. 2004 Aug. 2005 Sept. 2005 Sept. 2005 Sept. 2005 Oct. 2005 Oct. 2005 Dec. 2005

HSBC Merrill Lynch, others Temasek (Singapore Gov. Fund) Goldman Sachs, American Express, Allianz Bank of America Deutsche Bank UBS Carlyle Group

Investment (US$ billions)

Stake %

$2.10 $3.10 $3.10 $3.00 $3.00 $0.33 $0.50 $0.41

20 10 10 10 9 10 — 25

Sources: JPMorgan Chase Securities (Asia Pacific); China Economic Review. Note: — = not available

Table 2.7 Selected announced privatization and M&A deals in developing countries, 2005 Target (location)

NBR (Ukraine) Texakabanka (Kazakhstan) Turk Telekom (Turkey) Telsim (Turkey) BCR (Romania) Cesky Telecom (Czech Republic) PTCL (Pakistan) Mobitel (Bulgaria) Turkcell (Turkey) Disbank (Turkey) Aval Bank (Ukraine) Varna and Rouse Thermal Power Plant (Bulgaria) Al Furat (Syria) Garanti Bank (Turkey) Jubanka (Serbia) Albtelecom (Albania) Telekom Montenegro MISR Romaina Bank Podgoricka Banka (Montenegro)

P P P P P P P P P

P

P P P P

Sector

Buyer (country)

Banking Banking Telecom Telecom Banking Telecom Telecom Telecom Telecom Banking Banking Energy Oil Banking Banking Telecom Telecom Banking Banking

Sberbank (Russia) Sberbank (Russia) Saudi Oger (Saudi Arabia) Vodafone (UK) Erste Bank (Austria) Telefonica (Spain) Etisalat (UAE) Austria Telekom Alfa Telecom (Russia) Fortis (Belgium) Raiffeisen International (Austria) RAO UES (Russia) CNPC (China) & ONCG (India) GE Consumer Finance (U.S.) Alpha Bank (Greece) A consortium led by Turk Telekom Matav (Hungary) Blom Bank (Lebanon) Société Générale (France)

Value (US$ billions)

$0.12 $0.13 $6.50 $4.50 $4.20 $3.60 $2.60 $1.97 $1.60 $1.28 $1.03 $0.97 $0.57 $0.25 $0.19 $0.17 $0.15 $0.09 $0.02

Date

Jan-06 Jan-06 Jul-05 Dec-05 Dec-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Dec-05 Aug-05 Jan-05 Jun-05 Mar-05 Dec-05 Oct-05

Sources: Country Reports Economist Intelligence Unit; Financial Times; other news media. P = privatization deals.

57

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

Box 2.4

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Accession to the European Union and FDI

T

he recent enlargement of the European Union (EU) has had a salutary effect on FDI flows to Eastern Europe. Seven developing countries (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and the Slovak Republic) have joined the European Union; two others (Bulgaria and Romania) are expected to join in 2007. Croatia and Turkey may join in the future. EU membership requires structural changes in national laws and regulations related to FDI. All member countries are expected to adopt a body of EU law (the acquis communautaire). Doing so improves the business environment in accession countries, and thus their attractiveness to investors, but it may also raise the cost of doing business because of higher environmental and labor standards. New EU members are also expected to amend their bilateral and multilateral treaties to comply with EU standards. Arrangements such as special zones and tax incentives must be gradually eased, which may lead some multinationals to decrease their investments. On the plus side, full membership in the European customs union reduces the cost of trade with the rest of Europe, a significant advantage in terms of attracting investors wishing to produce for the EU market. Adoption of the euro will reduce exchange rate risk, though it may also make the accession countries less cost-competitive. Finally, in some of these countries, privatizations related

to the liberalization of the economy can be expected to continue to attract FDI. The accession countries have access to EU Structural Funds intended for basic infrastructure development, human resources development, competitiveness and enterprise development, rural development, and environmental protection (Kalotay 2006). Use of such funds can be expected to bring significant improvements in the investment climate of these countries. Although implementation of structural changes is at a different stage in each accession country, all are expected to comply eventually with EU standards as highlighted above. The impact of accession on FDI inflows varies with the degree of implementation of the new policies. FDI surged in Ireland, Portugal, and Spain following their accession, thanks to trade integration, whereas FDI in Greece did not increase (left figure). Despite the adoption of EU standards and improved investment climate, Greece lagged behind the other EU members even after accession. In newly acceding countries, particularly Romania, as well as candidates (Croatia and Turkey), progress in privatization has been providing opportunities for foreign investors. An example is the sale of the Romanian state bank, the largest privatization deal in the banking sector in 2005. In Turkey, recent privatizations raised the country’s FDI to new heights in 2005 (right figure).

FDI as share of GDP (%)

FDI stock as a percentage of GDP

4.0

120

3.5

100 Portugal

3.0

2000 2005

80

Ireland

60

Spain

40

2.5 2.0

20 1.5

0.5

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System. 0 n–5

n–4

n–3

n–2

n–1

n

n+1

n+2

n+3

n+4

n+5

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System. Note: Accession year (n) = 1973 for Ireland, 1981 for Greece, and 1986 for Portugal and Spain.

58

ga ria om an ia Tu rk ey C ro at ia

Bu l

R

Greece

EU

1.0

Es to ni a H un ga C ze r ch y R Sl e ov p ak . R ep . La tv i a Li th ua ni a Po la nd

0

T H E

G R O W T H

A N D

The impact of privatizations on FDI was particularly evident in many eastern European countries, particularly where upcoming or possible EU accession promises better investment climates, investment-related regulations and policies, and trade integration (box 2.4). However, even countries in the region that are not slated to join the European Union received notable levels of privatization-related FDI in 2005. As in the 1990s, most large privatization deals occurred in banking or telecommunications. The sale of BCR, a Romanian bank, was the largest privatization deal in the banking sector in 2005 and the second-largest cross-border bank merger in a developing country since the Mexican Banamex deal of 2001.

Structural changes in emerging market debt

E

merging market debt markets are evolving. No longer are they dominated by the sort of dollar-denominated, high-yield sovereign debt typified by the Brady bonds of the 1980s. Today, the emerging asset class includes a cluster of instruments in both local and foreign currency that offer the capacity to tap dollar and euro investors alike and cater to the funding needs of both sovereign and corporate borrowers. Active trading is occurring on the cash and derivatives sides of the market. In this section, we take stock of three structural changes that are making emerging debt markets a more diversified, robust, and liquid funding source for both sovereign and corporate borrowers in developing countries. Those forces

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

are the euro, credit default swap markets, and local-currency bond markets.

The euro’s role is growing Since its introduction on January 1, 1999, the euro has assumed an increasingly important international role. It has emerged as a principal issuing currency in the global debt market, as a vehicle for foreign exchange transactions, and as an important reserve currency for official holdings of foreignexchange reserves. The elimination of exchange risk within the Euro Area has created a wide European market for euro-denominated securities, attracting both sovereign and private borrowers not only from within the Euro Area but also from other countries—among them emerging market economies such as Brazil, Colombia, China, Mexico, and Turkey. Today’s euro-denominated bond market rivals the dollar-based fixed-income markets in several respects, including size, depth, and product range. As of June 30, 2005, outstanding international bonds (debt securities marketed and sold outside a borrower’s own country) and notes issued in euros amounted to $6.2 trillion, or 45 percent of outstanding debt obligations (table 2.8). The share of international dollar-denominated bonds and notes, meanwhile, has steadily declined— from 49.4 percent in 1999 to 38.3 percent at the end of June 2005. The popularity of the Japanese yen as an issuing currency has dwindled; its share was only 3.6 percent in June 2005. Thus far, the major beneficiaries of the rise of the euro bond market have been the new countries of the European Union. But although Poland, Hungary, and the EU accession countries have been especially active in the euro-denominated

Table 2.8 International bonds and notes outstanding, by currency, 1999–2005 $ billions

Euro U.S. dollar Yen Pound sterling Others Total Issues Euro as % of total U.S. dollar as % of total Yen as % of total

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005 (June)

1,500.1 2,610.6 478.3 402.3 291.5 5,282.8

1,862.1 3,243.9 417.4 448.4 275.4 6,247.2

2,429.1 3,870.9 389.3 503.6 302.2 7,495.1

3,610.5 4,202.4 429.1 621.6 398.2 9,261.8

4,930.3 4,709.4 508.1 829.6 530.4 11,507.8

6,233.3 5,020.8 518.7 1006.3 662.6 13,441.7

6,166.4 5,199.1 486.0 1019.4 717.3 13,588.2

28.4 49.4 9.1

29.8 51.9 6.7

32.4 51.6 5.2

39.0 45.4 4.6

42.8 40.9 4.4

46.4 37.4 3.9

45.4 38.3 3.6

Source: Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, December 2005, World Bank staff calculations.

59

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 2.12 Euro-denominated international bond issues, by region, 1999–2005

Source: Bank for International Settlements.

market, other developing countries, too, have found it a viable funding alternative. Among the emerging market entities that have issued sizable euro-denominated bonds are Mexico’s PEMEX, the Korea Development Bank, and the governments of China and the Republica Bolivariana de Venezuela. In 2005, sovereign and corporate borrowers in emerging markets issued $33.7 billion in euro-denominated bonds in the international market, up from $21.7 billion in 2004 (figure 2.12). Much of the growth came from Argentina’s issuance of $9.9 billion in bonds as a part of its debt workout. No euro-denominated issues came from Asia in 2005. Several factors account for the increase in euro issues. The decision to issue bonds in foreigncurrency markets is shaped chiefly by considerations of risk and cost, but also by a desire to diversify funding sources (for example, to match the issuer’s trade patterns). Most prudent borrowers wish to match the currency denomination of their bonds to their assets and cash flow over the duration of the bonds. (The risk of a mismatch may also be covered using an appropriate derivative, such as a currency swap.) Borrowing costs are influenced by regulatory requirements (related, for example, to the withholding of tax from payments to investors) and market liquidity. Otherwise, the quantity of bond issues in a given currency is limited only by the funding requirements of borrowers, the preferences of institutional investors, and interest rate differentials or prospective exchange rate trends. The cost of issuing bonds in euros is determined by the cost of the benchmark (10-year Bunds) plus a spread (figure 2.13) over the benchmark.

60

Emerging market issuers from China, Colombia, Lebanon, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Turkey, and Ukraine have issued bonds in euros because of lower interest rates on euro-denominated bonds than on comparable U.S.-dollar bonds.9 Most of the difference is explained by the fact that 10-year euro interest rates have been lower than corresponding dollar rates. Spreads over the benchmarks are about the same for comparable issues in the two currencies. For eastern European countries, the extent of present and future trade with Euro Area countries, and the prospective adoption of the euro by the accession countries, has undoubtedly played a part in the choice to issue debt in euros. Poland, for example, is part of the Euro Area, and its future assets will be denominated in euros; it trades already primarily with other EU countries. Decisions to issue in euros also depend on the terms of issuance and the liquidity of the market. Underwriting fees are roughly comparable for dollar and euro issues and may in fact be lower for euro issues.10 Market liquidity for comparably sized issues is also similar. These factors all help to explain the dramatic growth in international debt denominated in euros since 1999.

Credit default swap markets have grown substantially As anticipated in the 2003 edition of Global Development Finance, trading in credit default swaps (CDSs), and especially Emerging Market Credit Figure 2.13 Yields on U.S. and German 10-year government bonds, 1999–2005 Yield 8 7 6 5

United States

4 3

Germany

2 1 0

n. Ju 199 ly 9 1 Ja 99 n. 9 20 Ju 0 ly 0 2 Ja 00 n. 0 2 Ju 00 ly 1 2 Ja 00 n. 1 2 Ju 00 ly 2 2 Ja 00 n. 2 20 Ju 0 ly 3 2 Ja 00 n. 3 2 Ju 00 ly 4 2 Ja 00 n. 4 2 Ju 00 ly 5 20 05

D E V E L O P M E N T

Ja

G L O B A L

Source: Bloomberg.

T H E

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Figure 2.14 Comparison of euro-denominated and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bond issues

Source: Bloomberg.

61

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Default Swaps (EMCDSs), has grown substantially over the past three years, extending beyond the Republic of Korea, Mexico, and the Russian Federation to several new countries (Bulgaria, Peru, and the Philippines). A CDS contract, like an insurance contract, provides the buyer some protection against a specific risk, namely the risk of default. As a derivative, CDSs, the most popular type of credit derivatives, make it possible to trade credit risks separately from the underlying bonds or loans (box 2.5). They can help diversify risks in financial markets by allowing financial institutions to hedge risks embedded in their loan portfolio by transferring credit risks to other market participants, such as insurance companies and hedge funds. CDSs also enable institutional investors to take a position on a given credit without acquiring underlying assets in the cash market. The growth of the global credit derivatives market since the early 1990s represents a major story of financial innovation, comparable, in many respects, to the development of the interest rate derivatives markets developed to manage financial risk in the 1980s. At the end of June 2005, the market had a total notional amount outstanding of around $12 trillion, representing an increase of almost 48 percent from $8.42 trillion at the end of 2004 (figure 2.15). The CDS market is divided into various sectors defined by their underlying credit: corporates, banks, sovereigns, and emerging market sovereigns. A CDS may be based on a single credit or several. So-called single-name CDSs account for 60 percent of the market in credit derivatives. Their outstanding notional value was approximately $7.3 trillion at the end of June 2005 (BIS 2005). Emerging market credit default swaps (EMCDS) have grown with the global expansion of CDS markets, although at a slower pace. But with a notional outstanding value of $350 billion, the EMCDS market is now larger than the cash segment of the EMBI Global (estimated to be around $250 billion). EMCDSs currently cover a broad range of sovereign credits and are actively traded. In 2003, annual trading volumes in EMCDSs were estimated at almost $200 billion, approximately 5 percent of total trading in emerging market credit (Emerging Market Traders Association 2003). In the same year, three-quarters of the volume of transactions concerned 10 countries: Brazil, Hong Kong (China), Republic of Korea,

62

Figure 2.15 The global credit derivatives market in notional terms, 2001–5 $ trillions 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005*

Source: International Swaps and Derivatives Association Market Survey, 1987–present. * = as of end-June 2005.

Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, the Russian Federation, Taiwan (China), Turkey, and Uruguay. Quotes are now available on debt issued in more than 29 countries. Dealer banks estimate that trading volumes in EMCDSs now rival those in emerging cash bonds. For some countries, such as Hungary and Lithuania, the amount of outstanding CDSs dwarfs the amount of outstanding cash bonds by a factor of 10. The growth of the EMCDS market has coincided with the sharp increase in emerging market financing over the 2003–5 period and has been driven largely by the same forces. It has also been aided by standardization of documentation and the development of CDS indices and index-related products that improve liquidity and price transparency (box 2.5). In 1999 and 2003, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association published standard CDS documentation that appears to provide a robust legal framework for the instruments. Although the CDS market has begun to mature, it has not yet been subjected to major stress testing. Investor demand. The market is presently dominated by institutional investors seeking to invest in emerging markets by selling protection in the CDS market as an alternative to purchasing cash bonds. CDSs are not subject to special features that may affect the yield of a particular bond, and the standardization of CDS contracts makes it easier to compare

T H E

Box 2.5

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Credit default swaps

A

credit default swap (CDS) is a derivative contract transacted using standard documentation developed by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. In a contract, one party (the protection buyer) pays a periodic fee to another party (the protection seller) in return for a promise of compensation in the event of default (or other adverse credit event) by a specified firm or sovereign, known as the “reference entity,” which is not a party to the CDS. The CDS transfers the credit risk of that entity from one party to another. Corporate bond investors generally buy CDSs to insure against default by the issuer of the bond, but these flexible instruments can be used in many ways to customize exposure to corporate credit. CDSs now exist for more than 1,500 “reference names” in every bond category. Liquidity is provided by the market makers, which include commercial banks, insurance companies, asset managers, and, more recently in a significant manner, hedge funds. Standard trading sizes range from $10–20 million (notional value) for investment-grade credits and $2-5 million for high yield. The most liquid CDS contracts carry a maturity of five years. The single-name CDS applies to a single entity and is the most common form of this instrument. Other

credit risk across countries. EMCDSs are also more liquid than emerging market cash bonds. And, since a large segment of emerging market investors tend to buy and hold, investors wishing to enter the market may find it difficult to invest in a specific country’s bonds. In the context of buoyant demand, investors can establish a position more quickly by buying EMCDSs than by going through the underlying cash markets. Furthermore, EMCDSs are not subject to withholding or capital gains taxes in the United States. In sum, for actively traded issues, EMCDSs tend to enjoy a status similar to that of emerging economies’ benchmark bonds, with a yield curve for maturities up to 10 years. EMCDSs also provide investors with a slightly higher yield than bonds. Market participants. The chief buyers of protection in CDS markets are major international commercial banks, hedge funds, and other institutional investors seeking to eliminate credit risk from their portfolios (figure 2.16). Commercial banks are attracted by the fact that banking regulators in most developed countries do not require

forms include tradable indices, options, first-to-default or tranched basket products, cash collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), and synthetic CDOs. There are two families of tradable CDS indices: the Dow Jones CDX indices for North America and the emerging markets, and the Dow Jones iTraxx for Europe, Japan, and Asia. The first comprises equally weighted CDSs on 125 reference entities. A CDS transaction depends on a clearly defined credit event and on valuation methodology. The market generally uses three credit events (failure to pay, restructuring, and bankruptcy) as triggers for contractual protection payments. Market practitioners are converging in their views on modeling and valuing single-name CDSs. Pricing techniques currently in use are derived from reduced-form models that apply to defaultable bonds, as presented in Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) and Duffie (1999). There have been disputes in the past over whether a debt restructuring was to be considered a default. According to definitions provided by ISDA in 2003, a restructuring is deemed a default if the obligations become less favorable to the holders.

loans hedged with purchases of CDSs to be fully backed by capital reserves, thus freeing capital for other uses. Institutional investors like the fact that CDSs enable them to take a position on an operation without subjecting themselves to the regulatory restrictions that would govern a cash investment in the underlying credit. The key sellers include most institutional investors such as insurance companies, monoline insurers (financial guarantee companies), hedge funds, and mutual funds. Liquidity. The top 10 dealers, all large investment banks, account for about 70 percent of CDS sales (Fitch Ratings 2004). Trading in the EMCDS market is influenced by liquidity in the repo markets for the underlying bonds. The market practice is for dealers to intermediate in a two-way market without taking a position and without the need to rely on the cash market to hedge themselves. Advances in credit-risk management have enabled dealers to take selected positions and hedge their position on a portfolio basis, relying heavily on correlations between classes of emerging market issuers. Although there is no direct relation between

63

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 2.16 Credit derivative participants, 2004 Sellers

Buyers 9%

11% 16%

15%

38% 51%

7% 20% 16%

16%

Banks Securities firms Insurance companies Hedge funds Other

Source: British Bankers Association 2003/2004, Credit Derivatives Survey.

prices in cash markets and the prices of CDSs, the underlying bond prices provide essential references for the determination of EMCDS premiums. Liquidity in EMCDS markets is driven by the large and growing number of participants—hedge funds in particular. Liquidity has been improving over the past two years for CDSs based on issues in a broad range of countries. There are now 29 names in the liquid EM.CDX Diversified CDS index, a good indication of the number of names that are particularly easy to trade. The bid–ask spread is typically around 10 basis points, with a transaction size in the range of $10 to $20 million. For liquid names such as the Republic of Korea, Mexico, and the Russian Federation, the spread narrows to 5 basis points; it can reach 20 to 30 basis points for less traded names such as Chile, Morocco, and the Philippines. Price discovery. EMCDS and bond prices tend to move in tandem, although they can deviate for short periods (figure 2.17).11 The default swap basis is the difference between default swap spreads and bonds’ asset swap spreads (spreads relative to the Libor).12 There are several fundamental reasons why the default swap basis is normally positive. The most compelling is the traditional principle of “absence of arbitrage opportunity.” Were the basis to become negative, it would offer a risk-free gain to anyone investing in a country’s bond while buying protection for

64

the same maturity.13 It is not clear whether the CDS price or the cash price of the underlying bonds is the leading price. This will vary depending on the market context and the difference among the participants in the markets. When spreads follow the long-term spread-narrowing trend, traditional investors in emerging bonds will set the price. If new information emerges that justifies a reappraisal by the market, CDS premiums may be adjusted much more rapidly than the bond spread, resulting in a sudden, if temporary, widening of the basis. The explanation offered here is that hedge funds will react—and perhaps overreact—more promptly to news than will traditional cash investors. With the broadening of the market and the increasing presence of hedge funds and banks’ proprietary trading desks, the bias is toward active trading, which should improve price discovery in the CDS market. The growing EMCDS market, while immature, has the potential to benefit emerging economies. EMCDSs are very liquid and more available than emerging market cash bonds, most of which are held until maturity. Many participants with strong views on emerging names, including hedge funds and banks’ proprietary desks, have joined the EMCDS market so as to engage in active value trading in credit-risk premiums. Market data show that CDS spreads react more promptly to market developments than do corresponding cash market spreads (and may even overreact to adverse news). On balance, that alertness means greater efficiency in credit pricing and stronger market discipline—in other words, a reduction in the asymmetry of information between lender and borrower, something from which emerging market finance can benefit. EMCDS markets are highly liquid and have shown strong resilience to idiosyncratic shocks, such as Argentina’s default. However, despite considerable improvement in transparency under the auspices of ISDA, transparency in CDSs still lags behind emerging bond markets where, similarly trading takes place only in the private, over-thecounter market. The market has expanded to include new names, such as Peru, the Philippines, Slovakia. It is reasonable to expect corporate names to join as well, as private entities in emerging market economies tap increasingly global debt markets. The great concentration of the market in

T H E

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Figure 2.17 Five-year CDS and ASW spreads for selected countries, 2002–5 5-yr CDS & ASW Spreads for Mexico

5-yr CDS & ASW Spreads for Russia

Basis points

Basis points

450

700 CDS spreads

400

CDS spreads

600

350 500

300 250

400

200

300

150

200

100 50

ASW spreads

100

ASW spreads

4

4

Ja 4 n. Ap 20 4 r. 2 02 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 2 O 0 c 4 t. 2 02 Ja 0 4 n. 2 02 Ap 0 4 r. 2 03 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 3 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 3 Ja 0 4 n. 03 Ap 20 4 r. 2 04 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 4 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 4 Ja 0 4 n. 2 04 Ap 0 4 r. 2 05 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 5 O 0 ct 05 .2 00 5

0

Ja 4 n. Ap 20 4 r. 2 02 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 2 O 0 c 4 t. 2 02 Ja 0 4 n. 2 02 Ap 0 4 r. 2 03 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 3 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 3 Ja 0 4 n. 03 Ap 20 4 r. 2 04 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 4 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 4 Ja 0 4 n. 2 04 Ap 0 4 r. 2 05 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 5 O 0 ct 05 .2 00 5

0

5-yr CDS & ASW Spreads for Turkey

5-yr CDS & ASW Spreads for Philippines

Basis points

Basis points

1600

700 CDS spreads

1400

CDS spreads

600

1200

500

1000

400

800 300 600 200

400 200

ASW spreads

100

Ja 4 n. Ap 20 4 r. 2 02 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 2 O 0 c 4 t. 2 02 Ja 0 4 n. 2 02 Ap 0 4 r. 2 03 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 3 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 3 Ja 0 4 n. 03 Ap 20 4 r. 2 04 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 4 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 4 Ja 0 4 n. 2 04 Ap 0 4 r. 2 05 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 5 O 0 ct 05 .2 00 5

0

4

Ja 4 n. Ap 20 4 r. 2 02 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 2 O 0 c 4 t. 2 02 Ja 0 4 n. 2 02 Ap 0 4 r. 2 03 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 3 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 3 Ja 0 4 n. 03 Ap 20 4 r. 2 04 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 4 O 0 c 0 4 t. 2 4 Ja 0 4 n. 2 04 Ap 0 4 r. 2 05 Ju 0 0 4 ly 2 5 O 0 ct 05 .2 00 5

0

4

ASW spreads

Sources: Bloomberg and World Bank staff calculations. Note: ASW = asset swap; CDS = credit default swap.

the hands of a small number of dealers poses a risk, however, that an adverse credit event in a major financial center would have potentially serious repercussions on CDS market liquidity.

Local-currency bond markets provide important new sources of capital The rapid development of local-currency bond markets in emerging market economies signifies governments’ successful responses to the string of financial crises of the 1990s. Local-currency bond markets, now the fastest growing segment of emerging market debt, are in many cases helping to correct mismatches of currencies and maturities in the countries affected, thereby contributing to greater financial stability. From a global perspective, the local-currency bond markets in emerging

economies are still relatively small, accounting for just 7.9 percent of global domestic debt market as of September 30, 2005. Local currency bond markets are concentrated in eight countries (Brazil, China, India, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Turkey, and South Africa) that together make up three-quarters of the entire market. Robust domestic bond markets enable monetary authorities to conduct monetary policy through open-market operations. It is widely understood that well-developed capital markets enhance financial stability by diversifying both the avenues for investing savings and the sources of funding for investment activities beyond the banking sector. A vibrant bond market, supported by well-functioning and well-regulated derivative markets, enables market participants to better

65

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

manage their financial risks through swaps and futures and attract foreign investors. Furthermore, domestic debt instruments with long duration are also ideally suited for infrastructure projects, especially those conducted by subsovereign borrowers earning revenues in local currencies. Driven largely by domestic institutional and individual investors, local-currency debt markets have grown rapidly, moving from an aggregate outstanding level of $1.3 trillion at the end of 1997 to $3.5 trillion in September 2005 (figure 2.18). The countries of East Asia have led the way—the region accounts for 51.7 percent of total

Figure 2.18 Trends in domestic debt securities in emerging markets, by region, 1997–2005

Sources: Bank for International Settlements data and World Bank staff calculations.

Figure 2.19 The size of the domestic bond market in selected countries

Sources: Bank for International Settlements data and World Bank staff calculations.

66

local-currency debt in emerging markets, followed by Latin America (24.3 percent), Eastern Europe (12.2 percent), South Asia (9.1 percent), and Africa (2.8 percent). Local currency bond markets in developing countries are diverse in their size, issuers, liquidity, supporting infrastructure, and degree of openness to foreign investors. Ten of the fifteen largest local-currency bond markets in the world (measured as a percentage of GDP) in 2004 were in emerging markets (figure 2.19). The three largest markets (China, India, and Mexico), while small relative to GDP (below 35 percent), have substantial growth potential in light of recent reforms undertaken by these countries. Governments are the largest issuers in emerging local-currency bond markets, accounting for 65 percent of local-currency bond markets in September 2005. Governments are followed by financial institutions (25 percent) and corporations (10 percent). Relative to the United States—the world’s most diversified local bond market—bond markets in emerging economies are still highly concentrated in government bonds (figure 2.20). The challenge for emerging market countries is to further diversify their markets by building up other segments. The bond markets in East Asia grew rapidly from $400 billion in 1997 to $1.6 trillion by September 30, 2005. Since 1997, governments in East Asia have issued large amounts of local-currency bonds to restructure the banking system and revive the corporate sector. This has helped establish risk-free interest rate benchmarks that enabled the corporate sector, seeking to restructure its balance sheets, to issue bonds in the local market. Bondmarket development in East Asia gained further momentum in December 2002 with the launching of the Asian Bond Market Initiatives (ABMI) by the ASEAN+3 group. Corporate bond markets have been more difficult to establish than government bond markets in emerging markets because of the small issue size, lack of a yield curve, difficulties with proper disclosure of accounting information, and general weakness in corporate governance. However, several countries, including Chile, the Republic of Korea, and Malaysia have been able to build relatively large corporate bond markets over the past decade. In the Republic of Korea, the stimulus for developing a functioning corporate bond market

T H E

G R O W T H

A N D

T R A N S F O R M A T I O N

O F

P R I V A T E

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Figure 2.20 Bond market profile in selected countries, September 2005 Korea, Rep. of

Malaysia

Turkey

Gov't 43%

Corporate 39%

Corporate 24%

FIS 43%

FIS 18%

Gov't 100%

Gov't 33%

India

US

China Corporate 2%

Treasury 16%

Corporate 20% Gov't 58%

FIS 40%

FIS 2%

Gov't 96%

Federal agency 10%

Money market 13%

Corporate 2%

Municipal 9% Assetbacked 8%

Mortgagerelated 24% Brazil

Mexico

South Africa

Corporate 1% FIS 21%

Corporate FIS 10% 3% Gov't 87%

Corporate 14% Gov't 78%

FIS 12%

Gov't 74%

Sources: Bank for International Settlements Quarterly Review, December 2005, Bond Market Association, and World Bank staff calculations. Note: FIS = financial institutions.

came in the aftermath of the 1997–8 crisis. Before 1997, all corporate bonds in Korea had been guaranteed by commercial banks, which masked the differential credit risk of corporate bonds. The development of municipal bond markets is likely to become more important, given the growing role of subnational bodies in financing infrastructure projects, which have revenues and expenses in local currencies.

The investor base widens for local-currency bonds Foreign investors. Until recently, the domestic bond markets of major emerging markets were largely closed to foreign investors. The obstacles to investment took many forms—administrative, regulatory, fiscal, infrastructural, and informational. Since the East Asian crisis of 1997, however, these markets have become much more open,

67

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Box 2.6 The role of multilateral development banks in developing local-currency bond markets

M

active issuers. The Asian Development Bank (ADB), which recently became active, has issued bonds denominated in Indian rupees, Malaysian ringgits, Chinese yuan, Philippines pesos, and Thai baht. Overall, most of the local-currency borrowing by the MDBs occurred in Hong Kong dollars, Taiwanese dollars, South African rand, Turkish lira, and Polish zlotys. Successful bond issuance by MDBs requires several supporting policies as well as market infrastructure. These include: (i) the existence of a clearly defined and sound regulatory framework; (ii) a disclosure-based regulatory system; (iii) an efficient clearing and settlement system; and (iv) the existence of an investor base, particularly institutional investors such as pension funds and insurance companies. Success in local markets also requires a nondiscriminatory tax structure and exemption from exchange controls. The experience of Malaysia, and Mexico in facilitating issuance of bonds by MDBs should be of interest to other emerging economies.

ultilateral development banks (MDBs) meet part of their general funding requirements by issuing bonds denominated in the currencies of emerging markets. Such issues by MDBs can be standard setters in local-currency bond markets. Although they are likely to be small relative to the size of the domestic bond market, they can play a catalytic role by removing the policy and regulatory impediments to foreign investment and accelerating the development of necessary market infrastructure. They can also help create a longterm benchmark, which in turn may facilitate issuance of local-currency bonds by corporations. During 2000–5, the total raised by MDBs in 24 markets through 534 bond issues was $21.4 billion (see figure and table). MDB issuance gained momentum in 2005, with 121 issues totalling $5.2 billion. The largest issuer was the European Investment Bank, which accounted for $10 billion, or 47 percent of total issuance, followed by the World Bank ($2.7 billion). The InterAmerican Development Bank (IDB) and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) were also

Source: Dealogic Bondware.

Local-currency bond issuance by multilateral development banks, 2000–5

Bond issuance in non-G-10 currencies by supranationals, January 2000–October 2005 Issuers

European Investment Bank—EIB World Bank Inter-American Development Bank—IDB European Bank for Reconstruction & Development—EBRD International Finance Corp.—IFC Nordic Investment Bank Asian Development Bank Council of Europe Development Bank African Development Bank—AfDB Central American Bank for Economic Integration—CABEI Eurofima Total Source: Dealogic Bondware.

Amount ($ millions)

256 91 49

10,054 2,722 2,257

47.0 12.7 10.5

50 19 38 9 4 4

1,628 1,550 1,490 808 348 221

7.6 7.2 7.0 3.8 1.6 1.0

9 5 534

164 152 21,395

0.8 0.7 100

Percent

Source: World Bank staff estimates based on Dealogic Bondware.

especially in East Asia, where many impediments to foreign investment have been removed (Takeuchi 2005). The only major markets in Asia that still limit access are China and India, where fixed-income investments are allowed only by qualified foreign institutional investors up to a

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No. of Issues

ceiling of $10 billion. Several multilateral development banks played key roles in removing obstacles to foreign investment in developing markets by issuing bonds in the currencies of China, Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, and the Philippines (box 2.6).

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Gradual but steady liberalization of capital accounts in several developing countries has led to a general increase in investment interest by foreign investors (see chapter five). In the past, institutional investors in developed countries, especially the United States and United Kingdom, did not view emerging market equity or bonds, regardless of their denomination, as a separate asset class. Instead, they were considered as a small component of broad indexes such as Morgan Stanley’s All Country World Index. Most institutions would allocate a small amount of their investments to emerging market equity. In the case of emerging market debt, the allocation was usually made as a part of the Lehman Aggregate Plus Index or the High Yield Index. However, returns from U.S.-dollar-denominated emerging market debt were attractive, and some investors have been willing to assume the associated risks to obtain attractive risk adjusted returns. Local-currency bonds were rarely considered by institutional investors, since they involved high currency convertibility risk, on top of the interest rate and credit risks associated with fixed-income investments. However, efforts by several countries to build their domestic bond markets have begun to bear fruit. Their recent performance, as well as the potential for currency appreciation in several markets, is drawing the attention of growing numbers of fund managers. Investments by foreign institutional investors in local-currency bond markets have been facilitated by the introduction of several local-currency bond indexes such as JPMorgan Chase’s Emerging Market Local Currency Index (ELMI) and the Lehman Global Aggregate Index, which includes a small percentage of emerging market bonds. During 2000–5, the JPMorgan Chase ELMI+ (Local Currency) index generated an annual average return of 9.9 percent, well above the average return of 1.91 percent on the U.S. Treasury’s one-year, constant maturity bills (figure 2.21). Investment in U.S. dollar–denominated debt, as measured by the EMBI Global index, outperformed the ELMI+ (Local Currency), with an average annual return of 15.31 percent from 2000 to 2005. However, the volatility of the local-currency bond was less than that of the EMBI Global during the same period (figure 2.22). Although data are limited, it appears from the IMF’s 2003 consolidated portfolio survey that foreign flows to local-currency bond markets have

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Figure 2.21 Performance of local-currency bonds (ELMI+) against major indexes, 2002–5 Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 –10 –20 –30 2002

2003

EMBIG (US$) ELMI+ (US$) S&P 500 UST (1-yr constant maturity)

2004

2004

ELMI+ (Local currency) JPM-HY (JULI) EM equities (MSCI EM Free, US$)

Sources: JPMorgan Chase, Datastream, Bloomberg.

Figure 2.22 Returns vs. volatility of selected bond indexes, 2000–5 Return (%) 30 25 20 EMBIG (US$)

15

ELMI+ (US$) 10

JPM-HY (JULI)

ELMI+ (local currency)

S&P 500

5

UST (3mo)

0 0

5

15

10

20

25

Risk (%)

Sources: JPMorgan Chase, Datastream, Bloomberg.

been relatively modest in comparison with the size of these markets. Flows are reported to be higher in 2005, but no segregated information is available. In contrast to the East Asian approach of opening domestic bond markets to foreign investors, the major countries of Latin America and the Russian Federation have taken a different approach, issuing bonds denominated in local currency in the international markets (Tovar 2005). In November 2004, the Colombian government raised the equivalent of $375 million by issuing a

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six-year bond. This was followed in January 2005 by a second issue for $124 million. In September 2005, Brazil issued global bonds totaling 3.4 billion reals ($1.5 billion) with a maturity of 10 years and a 12.5 percent coupon. By issuing local-currency bonds in international markets, these Latin American countries have tried to tap international investors while changing the currency mix of their debt portfolio. The barriers facing foreign investors seeking to enter the domestic bond markets of countries (such as Brazil and Colombia) that have opted to issue local-currency bonds in international markets include registration requirements and withholding taxes. In February 2006, Brazil took several steps to increase the attractiveness of its domestic bond markets to foreign investors. These included exempting investors from transaction taxes and withholding tax on interest income, and permitting tax-free migration between equities and fixed-income instruments. Domestic investors. Domestic investors, both institutional and individual, thus far have been the major investors in local-currency bond markets, especially government bonds. Bond investments have become an acceptable and preferred asset class in the portfolios of institutional investors (pension funds, insurance, and mutual funds) in emerging markets because of the high volatility experienced in emerging equity markets after 1997. Pension funds and insurance companies have longterm liabilities, best funded by high-quality debt instruments such as long term government bonds. Retail investors, too, look for relatively safe instruments that will nevertheless bring them higher yields than bank deposits. The funds managed by institutional investors in emerging markets have grown in recent years because of several factors—among which are the excess of national savings over national investment, particularly in several East Asian countries; pension reforms (in Chile, Mexico, and Thailand, for example); rapid growth of the insurance industry in many countries, especially China and Thailand; and growth of collective investment schemes (mutual funds and other similar arrangements) in most emerging markets covered in this chapter. At the end of June 2005, the East Asian central banks, through the Executives’ Meeting of EastAsia and Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP), had in-

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vested $3 billion in the Asian bond markets through two funds. Although they represent a relatively small share of official reserves, these investments are expected to play a catalytic role in the development of domestic bond markets. The larger of the funds, the Asian Bond Fund (ABF2), was launched in December 2004 to invest $2 billion in local currency bonds. ABF2 has two components: a Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund (PAIF) and a Fund of Bond Funds (FoBF). The PAIF is a single bond fund investing in sovereign and quasi-sovereign localcurrency-denominated bonds issued in the eight EMEAP markets. The FoBF is a two-layered structure with a parent fund investing in eight subfunds, each of which will invest in sovereign and quasisovereign local-currency-denominated bonds issued in the EMEAP economies. The ABF2 has started to invest in domestic bond markets, helping in the process to create eight local-currency bond market indices.

Local-currency bond markets present new opportunities and new challenges Bringing local currency bond markets in emerging economies up to the standards of markets in developed countries will require concerted efforts in several areas. Countries at an early stage of bondmarket development should focus on the infrastructure of the primary market (issuance) and related markets. The pertinent areas include: (1) risk-free interest rate benchmarks; (2) a well-functioning primary dealer system (a network of financial intermediaries); (3) credible credit ratings; (4) efficient trading platforms; (5) sound and safe clearing and settlement systems; and (vi) a diversified investor base. Countries at an advanced stage of market development will need to undertake additional reforms to improve the efficiency of their bond markets. These reforms include: (1) strengthening primary dealer systems by offering them liquidity supports through repurchase agreements, in return for market making; (2) creation of a securities borrowing and lending facility to enable primary dealers to borrow securities from institutional investors for trading purposes; (3) establishment of a central information system to disseminate bond-market information similar to those functioning in the Republic of Korea, which enable implementation of market-to-market valuation of fixed-income instru-

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ments; (4) diversification of local-currency bond markets through promotion of corporate and municipal bonds; (5) expansion of an investor base for bond markets; (6) development of derivatives markets to facilitate risk management; (7) increased participation of foreign investors through removal of impediments such as withholding tax and capital controls. The efforts made by the East Asian countries in developing their domestic bond markets have met with some early success and could provide a case worth watching by other emerging economies. Foreign institutional investors provide benefits to local bond markets in several ways. First, they can increase liquidity. Second, given their large capital base and experience in fixed-income markets, they can play the role of primary dealers and market makers, the absence of which is a major gap in most emerging markets. Third, they can improve the efficiency of the market by deploying state-of-the-art technology and services available in the international capital markets. Finally, they can introduce new investors to the domestic market, help broaden the investor base, and play a key role in developing capacity in domestic capital markets. However, growing local-currency debt markets present new challenges to decision makers. Government debt denominated in the local currency will need to be managed with as much care as debt denominated in international currencies and on an integrated basis. The establishment of an independent debt-management office should be considered to manage both domestic and international debt within the country’s overall macroeconomic framework. In this regard, the experiences of Sweden and New Zealand could be of interest to developing countries. Capacity building in risk management (currency, interest rate, and duration) will also be needed to ensure that public debt is properly managed.

Prospects for private capital flows

P

rivate capital flows to developing countries increased sharply in 2005, but the outlook through 2007 is mixed. Debt flows are likely to remain subdued because of accumulated foreign exchange reserves, substantial repayments, and pre-

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funding of future requirements by developing countries during 2005. In February 2006, Brazil, Colombia, and República Bolivariana de Venezuela announced debt-buyback programs that together could lower their foreign currency–denominated external debt by about $16 billion (see the annex to this chapter for a discussion of buybacks). Meanwhile, Mexico announced another buyback in March, repurchasing $2.9 billion of its lesstraded global bonds. These buybacks are in line with the liability-management and deleveraging practices that many developing countries have pursued over the past few years to improve the terms and risk profile of their external debt. Buybacks could be especially significant for Brady debt—only about $9 billion of Brady bonds (about 6 percent of the original issue) will remain outstanding after Brazil and República Bolivariana de Venezuela conclude their buybacks. The supply of foreign currency bonds is likely to be limited, except from a few countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Turkey) with large external financing requirements. Turkey alone is expected to account for one-third of the external financing demands of emerging markets. In 2005, several countries were successful in altering their debt profile by refinancing foreign debt through domestic bond markets. In coming years, some developing countries—among them Brazil, Colombia, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand—are likely to raise most of their funds in domestic bond markets. Therefore, sovereign issues in the international bond market are likely to become more scarce. Banking flows are also likely to taper off from their record level in 2005, as mergers and acquisitions in the oil industry are completed. However, the supply of bonds from corporate issuers is likely to increase with the revival of private investment in Asia and Latin America. Demand from international investors is likely to be buoyant, because yields on corporate bonds are higher than those on sovereign issues. Foreign flows into some local-currency bond markets are likely to increase because of the limited supply of external debt denominated in foreign currency, and because of the potential for currency appreciation. FDI flows are expected to grow, although at a slower rate than the last year. High commodity prices are likely to boost investment in extractive industries, while ongoing liberalization in China,

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India, and other countries should increase FDI in the services sector. Given fundamental macroeconomic improvements in several developing countries and projected annual growth of around 5 percent, the prospects for equity mar-

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kets in developing countries are better than for those of the developed countries. This bodes well for future equity flows into emerging markets in 2006–7. However, the pace will be more measured than in 2005.

Annex: Commercial Debt Restructuring

Developments in 2005 and the first quarter of 200614

T

he period under review saw major debtmanagement activities in developing countries, some of which were resolutions of previously defaulted debts, such as the conclusion of Argentina’s debt-restructuring program and Iraq’s restructuring of debt incurred under Saddam Hussein’s reign. Some of these debt-management activities involved stressed-debt restructuring, such as the Dominican Republic’s $1.1 billion debtexchange operation. Others involved another wave of Brady buyback operations and announcements, which will retire most of the remaining Brady bonds outstanding. Brady retirements are in line with the liability-management practice and deleveraging that many developing countries have pursued over the past few years to improve their external debt terms and risk structure.

Brady bond restructuring Brazil. Two buyback operations in 2005 retired $5.6 billion of Brazil’s Brady bonds. In July 2005, Brazil used the proceeds from a new 12-year global bond (A-bond) to buy back $4.5 billion of its outstanding C-bonds (or capitalization bonds). The global A-bond issue was priced at a premium and carried a coupon of 8 percent. In October 2005, Brazil completed its second buyback operation, retiring the remainder of its C-bonds (worth about $1.1 billion). In February 2006, Brazil announced that it will buy back all of its remaining Brady bonds by exercising the embedded call options, effectively marking the end of the country’s restructured debt era. Bulgaria. Two buyback operations in 2005 retired all of Bulgaria’s remaining Brady debt out-

standing (about $1.5 billion). In January 2006, Bulgaria exercised embedded call options to fully retire just under $938 billion of interest arrears bonds (IABs) that were to expire in 2011. In July 2005, Bulgaria also bought back all of its frontloaded interest reduction bonds (FLIRBs), worth about $608 million, in an operation generating a $648 billion reduction in outstanding debt and about $120 million in debt-service expenses over the next 7 years. By retiring the entire outstanding FLIRBs and IABS, Bulgaria fully redeemed its Brady bonds, issued in 1994 to restructure its debt to the London Club of commercial creditors. República Bolivariana de Venezuela. In February 2006, República Bolivariana de Venezuela announced plans to buy back $3.9 billion worth of outstanding Brady bonds, leaving only $487 million outstanding in the market, in an operation to be financed by the country’s large oil revenues and international reserves. According to the government, the deal will reduce external debt to 21 percent of GDP by end-2006, down from 23.4 percent at end-2005. This operation will also enable the government to realize $670 million in interest payment savings in 2006, and a further $600 million per year in interest and principal savings through 2020. The country had previously bought back $3.8 billion of Brady bonds in 2003 and an additional $2.2 billion in 2004.

Other bond market restructurings Argentina. In June 2005, Argentina finally completed a debt-restructuring operation involving more than $100 billion in defaulted bonds and interest arrears. Argentina swapped about $62.3 billion in defaulted bonds and $680 million in interest payments for $35.3 billion in 11 new bond issues

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denominated in yen, euros, dollars, and pesos. This operation resulted in a 75 percent net present value reduction in principal for bondholders, with about 76 percent of bondholders accepting the deal. According to government estimates, the transaction is expected to result in debt-payment savings of more than $67 billion. Colombia. Two buyback operations in 2005–6 retired about $1.1 billion of Colombia’s external debt. In September 2005, Colombia used the proceeds from a reopening of its 20-year global bond to buy back $497 million of dollar-denominated bonds maturing in 2007, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2027, and 2033, and 136 million in bonds maturing in 2008 and 2011. This operation yielded savings of $135 million in interest payments and improved the country’s dollar yield curve. In March 2006, the Colombian government bought back about $601 million of dollar- and euro-denominated bonds maturing between 2006 and 2011, using $365 million of cash on hand and $306 million of the proceeds from the reopening of a 2015 peso bond. Dominican Republic. In May 2005, the Dominican Republic restructured about $1.1 billion of its external debt through two exchange offers, which converted $500 million of 2006 bonds into new 5-year amortizing bonds, and $600 million of 2013 bonds into new 11-year amortizing bonds. The new 5-year and 11-year bonds carry coupons of 9.5 percent and 9.04 percent, respectively. The exchange deal extended the maturities of the country’s outstanding bonds by 5 years and resulted in about $100 million of interest savings in 2005 and 2006. Approximately 94 percent of eligible bondholders participated in the exchanges. In July 2005, the Dominican Republic reopened the exchange offer, which boosted participation to about 97 percent. Iraq. In October 2005, Iraq concluded a twophase commercial debt restructuring with small creditors holding $35 million or less of debt incurred under Saddam Hussein’s reign. Of about $1.6 billion in eligible claims, it is estimated that 71 percent of creditors accepted the deal and only 8 percent of creditors elected to reject. In January 2006, the government of Iraq completed a debtexchange operation with commercial creditors holding more than $35 million of debt incurred under Saddam Hussein’s reign, swapping about

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$14 billion in defaulted debt for a new eurobond issue worth bout $2.7 billion. In accordance with a December 2005 agreement, the holder of each $100 of tendered claims received a new bond with a $20 face value, carrying a coupon of 5.8 percent and amortizing between 2020 and 2028. Some creditors received a floating rate note paying 50 basis points over Libor in lieu of the new bond. Further notes up to an additional $800 million may be issued for other eligible outstanding claims on the same terms. Mexico. In October 2005, the Mexican government carried out a debt-management operation to retire about $1.4 billion of global bonds with 10 different maturities between 2007 and 2033 through open-market repurchase. In November 2005, Mexico became the first developing country to issue warrants that allow investors to exchange dollar-denominated bonds for peso-denominated debt at specific strike dates in 2006. The exchange operation involved three series of warrants, which can be exercised up to a maximum of $2.5 billion in bonds potentially exchanged for domestic peso bonds. The transaction was part of the government’s continuing effort to shift its financing to local-currency debt markets. In March 2006, Mexico retired $2.9 billion worth of global bonds due to mature between 2007 and 2031, and issued $3 billion of new global bonds due in 2017. The new global issue carried a coupon of 5.63 percent, and was priced to yield 5.74 percent, or 105 basis points above comparable U.S. Treasuries. Panama. In November 2005, Panama exchanged $820 million of short-dated dollar bonds for a new $980 million global bond due in 2026. The new issue was priced at a discount with a coupon of 7.13 percent, yielding 7.42 percent, or 263 basis points over the U.S. Treasury rate. In a transaction intended to improve the long end of the government’s yield curve, in January 2006 Panama exchanged about $1.1 billion of global bonds due in 2020, 2023, and 2034 for a new $1.4 billion global bond due in 2036. This exchange operation retired $117 million of 2020s, $617 million of 2023s, and $327 million of 2034s. The new issue was priced at 98.4 percent of face value to yield 6.94 percent, or 230 basis points over the U.S. Treasury rate.

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Notes 1. The concentration pattern was similar to bank lending except for the Philippines, which attracted very little bank lending. 2. International Financial Services, London, 2005. 3. InterSec reports that U.S. fund managers’ allocations to international stocks rose from 13 percent in 2004 to 15 percent in 2005. 4. The growth in FDI was led by the United Kingdom, where FDI inflows almost tripled to a record high after almost $100 billion worth of asset restructuring of a large oil company. Because of the restructuring of the Shell Transport and Trading Company and Royal Dutch Petroleum Company into Royal Dutch Shell, Royal Dutch Shell was classified as a foreign company for UK balance-of-payments purposes. That resulted in a sharp increase in FDI into the United Kingdom. FDI flows to Canada, Germany, and United States also increased in 2005 after significant reductions since 2000. In 2004, after a continuing decline, FDI flows to Germany slumped into negative numbers as changes in corporate tax laws led to large repayments of intercompany loans (OECD 2005). 5. The Foreign Investment Advisory Service (FIAS), part of the International Finance Corporation, advises governments on how to attract and retain FDI by providing investment climate diagnostics and developing customized long-term FDI promotion strategies that fit each client country’s needs, objectives, and capacity. 6. In 2005, SAB-Miller bought a brewery company for $7.8 billion bringing approximately US$1 billion worth of FDI into Columbia. In addition, Philip Morris bought a local tobacco producer for $350 million. 7. Itaú BBA has opened its first office in China. Brazil’s second-leading commercial bank is targeting Chinese and Brazilian companies doing business in both markets. 8. French Vodafone increased its share in Vodacom from 35 percent to 50 percent. The deal represents the second-largest inflow of foreign direct investment into South Africa after the Barclays-ABSA deal. 9. In a perfect international market, covered interest arbitrage implies that spreads on bonds issued by the same issuer in different currencies are just a function of respective

 1 + re  Sd interest rates and net exchange rates. Thus Se =   1 + rd  where Se and Sd are spreads on the euro and the dollar, respectively and re and rd are corresponding interest rates in euros and dollars. See Kercheval, Goldberg, and Berger (2003) and Berger and Stovel (2005) for more detail. 10. See “Deutsche Bank Ousts Citigroup: Demand for euro-denominated issues puts sales on a record pace for 2005,” Bloomberg Markets, November 2005. 11. Some studies have provided empirical evidence of the comovement of the two asset prices for investmentgrade bonds (Blanco, Brennan, and Marsh 2005). 12. In theory, under the absence-of-arbitrage-opportunity hypothesis, a par floating rate note and a CDS on the same issuer should have the same spread. If the spread of the latter was strictly larger, a risk-free gain would be possible by entering into the following trade: (i) purchase of a par

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floating rate note paying a coupon of Libor plus a spread; (ii) fund the purchase in the repo market, paying the general-collateral repo rate, which is typically close to Libor; and (iii) buy protection on the issuer’s name in the CDS market, paying the premium. 13. However, in practice, the arbitrage cannot be implemented at all times and under all market conditions. 14. As of April 7, 2006.

References A.T. Kearney. 2005. “2005 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index.” www.atkearney.com. BIS (Bank for International Settlements). Various issues. BIS Quarterly Review. Basel. www.bis.org. Blanco, Roberto, Simon Brennan, and Ian W. Marsh. 2005. “An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps.” Journal of Finance 60 (5): 2255–81. Bloomberg Markets. 2005. “Deutsche Bank Ousts Citigroup: Demand for Euro-Denominated Issues Puts Sales on a Record Pace for 2005.” November. http:// www.bloomberg.com/media/markets/index.html Breger, Ludovic, and Darren Stovel. 2005. “Global Integration of Developed Credit Markets.” Journal of Portfolio Management (Spring). Business China. 2005. “Bankable Prospects.” October 10. Duffie, Darrell. 1999. “Credit Swap Valuation.” Financial Analysts Journal (January–February). Emerging Market Traders Association. 2003. “2003 Annual Debt Trading Volume Survey.” New York. www.emta.org. Fitch Ratings. 2004. “Global Credit Derivatives Survey 2004.” http://www.fitchratings.com IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2003. “Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey 2003.” Statistics Department, Washington, DC. ———. 2005. Global Investor Survey 2005. Washington, DC. International Financial Services. 2005. “Fund Management.” London. August. Jarrow, Robert A., and Stuart M. Turnbull. 1995. “Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk.” Journal of Finance 50 (1). Kalotay, Kalman. 2006. “The Impact of EU Enlargement on FDI Flows.” International Finance Review 6: 473–99. Kercheval, Alec, Lisa Goldberg, and Ludovic Breger. 2003. “Modeling Credit Risk: Currency Dependence in Global Credit Markets.” Journal of Portfolio Management (Spring): 90–100. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2005. “Recent Trends in Foreign Direct Investment in OECD Countries.” Investment Division, Paris. http://www.oecd.org/investment Takeuchi, Atsushi. 2005. “Study of Impediments to Crossborder Bond Investment and Issuance in Asian Countries.” Paper prepared for discussion at the working group of the ASEAN+3 Asian Bond Market Initiatives. December.

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Tovar, Camilo E. 2005. “International Government Debt Denominated in Local Currency: Recent Developments in Latin America.” BIS Quarterly Bulletin (December): 109–18. http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0512.pdf UNCTAD. (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development). 2004. World Investment Report 2004. New York: UNCTAD. ———. 2005. World Investment Report 2005. New York: UNCTAD.

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USA Today. 2005. “Only the Bravest of Bankers Boldly Go to China.” January 19, 2005. World Bank. 2005. World Development Report 2005: A Better Investment Climate for Everyone. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. Various years. Global Development Finance. Washington, DC: World Bank.

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3 Supporting Development through Aid and Debt Relief

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evelopment finance moved to center stage at a series of major international forums in 2005. The High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness held in Paris in March set out to change how aid is delivered and managed. The Commission for Africa issued a report in March urging donors to scale up aid for Africa significantly. Expectations for a big push in development assistance with a strong focus on Africa escalated over the course of the year, leading up to the G-8 Summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, in July, where “Africa and Development” was one of two main themes. The United Nations World Summit followed in New York in September to assess progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and reinforce commitments on the part of donor and recipient countries. Multilateral trade liberalization also played a central role in the development agenda in 2005. Although the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong (China) in December did not complete the Doha Development Round as planned, “aid for trade” surfaced as a major policy initiative, with new commitments by advanced countries to enrich development assistance. Broad agreement surfaced at the international forums about the need to provide more aid resources, particularly to poor countries in Africa, and to further reduce the debt burdens of heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) in order to free up financial resources for meeting the MDGs. There was also strong emphasis on the importance of debt sustainability in underpinning growth, and thereby alleviating poverty over time. This chapter addresses these broad objectives—namely, enhancing the aid effort, particularly in the context of Africa; provid-

ing further debt relief to HIPCs; and helping to ensure that developing countries can maintain sustainable debt levels over time. It highlights recent trends in each of these areas and reflects on how the policy initiatives announced over the course of 2005 are likely to influence development finance over the balance of the decade. The main messages are: •

•

Official development assistance (ODA) increased sharply in 2005, reaching 0.33 percent of gross national income (GNI) in donor countries, up from a low of 0.22 percent in 2001, just below the 0.34 percent level attained in the early 1990s. Although most of the record $27 billion increase in 2005 is accounted for by debt relief grants provided to just two countries (Iraq and Nigeria), the underlying trend indicates that donors have continued to enhance their aid effort. Based on existing commitments, ODA is expected to decline in 2006–7, as debt relief falls to more normal levels, but then to rise gradually through the end of the decade to reach 0.36 percent of GNI in 2010. Donors have taken steps to improve: (1) the allocation of aid, by providing more aid resources to the poorest countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the amount of aid may double by the end of the decade; (2) the composition of aid, by providing more grants in place of concessional loans in an effort to reduce countries’ debt service burden and improve debt sustainability; and (3) the effectiveness of aid, by developing a framework that includes tangible indicators and targets designed to gauge development progress over time.

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Debt relief provided under the HIPC Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Reduction Initiative (MDRI) will significantly reduce the debt burdens of poor countries that qualify. The debt of 17 countries that have already reached the completion point under the HIPC Initiative will fall from 55 percent of GDP (before HIPC debt relief) to 13 percent (after MDRI debt relief). Other poor countries have made considerable progress in reducing their debt burdens from very high levels, but much more needs to be done, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Debt sustainability in many of the HIPCs has been enhanced by other factors, including stronger economic growth, foreign reserve accumulation, improved external balances, and higher inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and remittances. Going forward, lowincome countries, HIPCs and non-HIPCs alike, face the challenge of financing their development plans without compromising debt sustainability over the long term. Countries can enhance debt sustainability by pursuing macroeconomic policies that maintain economic and financial stability and by making progress on structural reforms to improve their policy and institutional frameworks.

Recent trends and prospects for foreign aid ODA continues to rise At the United Nations World Summit in September in New York countries reaffirmed the Monter-

rey Consensus, recognizing that a substantial increase in foreign aid was required to achieve internationally agreed goals, including the MDGs. Donors continue to deliver on their promise. According to the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), net ODA disbursements by DAC member countries increased by a record $27 billion in 2005, reaching $106.5 billion (table 3.1). Relative to gross national income (GNI) in DAC member countries, ODA increased to 0.33 percent in 2005, up from a low of 0.22 percent in 2001, but still remains slightly below the 0.34 percent level reached in the early 1990s (figure 3.1).

The rise reflects debt relief and other special-purpose grants However, much of the increase in ODA was due to debt relief grants, which totaled $23 billion in 2005, up from $4 billion in 2004 (table 3.2). This largely reflected nearly $14 billion in debt relief provided to Iraq and a little over $5 billion to Nigeria by their Paris Club creditors. Excluding debt relief, ODA increased by 8.7 percent in real terms, up from average annual rate of 5.6 percent in 2002–4. At the UN Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey in 2002, donors pledged that debt relief would not displace other components of ODA. It is difficult to assess whether donors have honored their pledge in the absence of an explicit counterfactual demonstration of the amount of ODA that would have been provided in the absence of debt relief. The share of debt relief

Table 3.1 Net ODA disbursements, 1990–2005 $ billions 1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005a

DAC donors G7 countries United States Japan United Kingdom France Germany Canada Italy

54.3 42.4 11.4 9.1 2.6 7.2 6.3 2.5 3.4

58.8 44.7 7.4 14.5 3.2 8.4 7.5 2.1 1.6

53.7 40.2 10.0 13.5 4.5 4.1 5.0 1.7 1.4

52.4 38.2 11.4 9.8 4.6 4.2 5.0 1.5 1.6

58.3 42.6 13.3 9.3 4.9 5.5 5.3 2.0 2.3

69.1 50.0 16.3 8.9 6.3 7.3 6.8 2.0 2.4

79.6 57.6 19.7 8.9 7.9 8.5 7.5 2.6 2.5

106.5 80.1 27.5 13.1 10.8 10.1 9.9 3.7 5.1

Memo item: EU countries

28.3

31.2

25.3

26.4

30.0

37.1

42.9

55.7

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC). a. Preliminary.

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S U P P O R T I N G

Figure 3.1 Net ODA to developing countries, 1990–2005

D E V E L O P M E N T

T H R O U G H

A I D

ODA excluding debt relief

ODA excluding special purpose grants

0.1

0.0 1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

R E L I E F

$ billions

ODA

Debt relief grants

ODA excluding debt relief grants

106.5 80.1 27.5 13.1 10.8 10.1 9.9 3.7 5.1

23.0 20.2 4.1 3.6 3.7 3.2 3.6 0.5 1.7

83.5 59.9 23.4 9.5 7.1 6.9 6.3 3.2 3.4

8.7 8.9 16.2 12.1 –1.7 0.0 –9.8 17.8 40.0

55.7

27.9

27.8

3.8

Total ODA

0.2

D E B T

Table 3.2 ODA and debt relief grants in 2005

Percent

0.3

A N D

2004

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC).

in ODA has risen from an average of 3.7 percent in the 1990s to 6.6 percent in 2002–4, followed by a sharp increase to 22 percent in 2005. ODA, net of debt relief, has risen relative to GNI in donor countries, but at a more modest pace than overall ODA (figure 3.1). Thus, some, but not all, of the scaling-up in aid can be attributed to debt relief. Debt relief together with other special-purpose grants—for technical cooperation, emergency and disaster relief, and administrative costs—accounted for three-quarters of the bilateral portion of ODA in 2005, well above the 53 percent average of the 1990s (table 3.3). Excluding the $19 billion in debt relief provided to Iraq and Nigeria, special-purpose grants still accounted for two-thirds of bilateral ODA in 2005. Emergency and distress relief grants increased by $5 billion in 2005, $2.2 billion of which was provided in response to the December 2004 tsunami. However, part of remaining $2.8 billion increase reflects a modification in the definition to include reconstruction grants.1

DAC donors G7 countries United States Japan United Kingdom France Germany Canada Italy Memo item: EU countries

Percent change in ODA excluding debt relief grants in real termsa

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC). a. Takes into account inflation and exchange-rate movements.

ODA net of special-purpose grants totaled $45 billion in 2005, unchanged from 2004, but up significantly from a low of $30 billion in 2001. However, relative to GNI in DAC member countries, ODA net of special-purpose grants has shown little increase over the past 10 years (1996–2005), averaging 0.14 percent, remaining well below the 0.23 level attained in the early 1990s (figure 3.1). Thus, the increase in the ODA as a percent of GNI over the past few years reflects higher special purpose grants.

The shift from concessional loans to grants continues Bilateral donors have continued to shift their resources from concessional loans to grants, with the goal of limiting the rise in the debt burdens of aid recipients and thereby prevent a recurrence of

Table 3.3 Main components of bilateral ODA, 1990–2005 $ billions

Total ODA Bilateral ODA Debt relief Technical co-operation Emergency/distress relief Administrative costs Special purpose grants: Multilateral ODA Total ODA less debt relief Total ODA less special purpose grants

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005a

54.3 38.5 1.5 11.4 1.1 2.0 15.9 15.8 52.7 38.4

58.8 40.5 2.7 14.3 3.1 2.9 23.0 18.3 56.1 35.8

53.7 36.1 1.6 12.8 3.6 3.1 21.0 17.7 52.2 32.7

52.4 35.1 2.0 13.6 3.3 3.0 21.8 17.3 50.5 30.6

58.3 40.8 3.7 15.5 3.9 3.0 26.1 17.5 54.6 32.2

69.1 49.8 6.8 18.4 6.2 3.5 34.8 19.3 62.3 34.2

79.6 54.4 4.2 18.8 7.3 4.0 34.3 25.1 75.4 45.2

106.5 82.0 23.0 21.6 12.7 4.0 61.3 24.5 83.5 45.2

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC). Note: a. Preliminary.

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Figure 3.2 Bilateral ODA loans and grants, 1990–2005 $ billions 85 75 65 55 45 35 25

Bilateral ODA Bilateral grants

15

Bilateral loans

5 –5 1990

1995

2000

2005

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC).

lending/debt forgiveness cycles that have occurred over the past few decades. Net concessional lending from bilateral donors has averaged close to zero over the past five years (2001–5), implying that disbursements of new concessional loans equaled repayments (interest and principle) on existing loans on average, whereas in the early 1990s new lending exceeded repayments by about $6 billion on average (figure 3.2).

Donors are providing more assistance to the least developed countries and those affected by conflict Donors have been reallocating development assistance to the poorest countries. The amount of ODA allocated to the least developed countries (LDCs) has increased substantially since the late 1990s, while that allocated to other low-income countries has been relatively constant in nominal terms. The share of total ODA allocated to the LDCs grew from a low of 30 percent in 1999 to a high of 45 percent in 2003, while the share allocated to other low-income countries declined from 29.5 percent to 19 percent in 2004 (figure 3.3).2 From a regional perspective, donors have been reallocating development assistance to countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The share of total ODA allocated to Sub-Saharan Africa increased from a low of 25 percent in 1999 to 40 percent in 2004,3 while that allocated to Asia declined from 44 percent to 35 percent. Donors are committed to continued increases in Africa’s share of ODA over the balance of the decade. A portion of the rise in ODA over the past two years reflects increased assistance for countries affected by conflict. The share of total ODA

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allocated to the Middle East rose from 4.5 percent in 2002 to 11.6 percent in 2004, with most of the increase going to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Jordan (table 3.4). Aid to Iraq rose from an average of only $90 million in 2000–2 to $3.2 billion in 2003–4, making it the largest recipient of ODA. Aid to Iraq is likely to rise further, as its agreement with Paris Club creditors in November 2004 included $30 billion in debt relief that that will result in a major increase on Iraq’s share of ODA beginning in 2005. Similarly, aid to Afghanistan increased from $0.5 billion to $1.4 billion over the same period. Increases in aid to Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo account for over two-thirds of the increase in total ODA in 2003–4.

More “aid for trade” is on the way Donors also are focusing more aid resources to bolster the capacity of the poorest countries to participate in trade and manage the adjustment costs of liberalization. This entails providing assistance for trade policy and regulations (technical assistance for product standards, integration of trade with development plans, trade facilitation), trade development (trade promotion, market development activities) and building infrastructure (transport, energy, and telecommunications). The amount of aid devoted to trade-related assistance has risen over the past few years, increasing from 3.6 percent of total aid commitments in 2002 to 4.4 percent in 2003, with infrastructure accounting for a further 25 percent.4 The G-8 Summit in Gleneagles gave important high-level endorsement for “aid for trade” initiatives that aim to build the physical, human, and Figure 3.3 Share of total ODA allocated to LDCs and other low-income countries, 1990–2004 Percent 45

LDCs

40 35 30 25 20

Other low-income countries

15 1990

1995

2000

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC).

2004

S U P P O R T I N G

D E V E L O P M E N T

T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

D E B T

R E L I E F

Table 3.4 Net ODA disbursements to the ten largest recipient countries $ billions, average over period 1990–9

2000–2

2003–4

Egypt

2.23

Indonesia

1.35

Iraq

3.24

China Indonesia Poland India Philippines Bangladesh Mozambique Thailand Tanzania

1.82 1.47 1.33 1.07 0.90 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.68

China Egypt Serbia & Montenegro Mozambique Vietnam Tanzania India Pakistan Bangladesh

1.18 1.12 1.05 1.00 0.94 0.88 0.78 0.76 0.57

Dem. Rep. of Congo Afghanistan China Vietnam Ethiopia Tanzania Egypt Indonesia Jordan

3.09 1.45 1.36 1.07 1.03 1.00 0.98 0.85 0.76

Memo items: Iraq Afghanistan Dem. Rep. of Congo

0.16 0.11 0.18

Iraq Afghanistan Dem. Rep. of Congo

0.09 0.47 0.20 Russian Fed. Israel

1.03 0.46

Net offical assistance disbursements by largest recipientsa Russian Fed. 1.22 Russian Fed. Israel 1.33 Israel

1.12 0.57

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC). a. Included in official aid (OA), but not official development assistance (ODA).

institutional capacity of poor countries so that they can play a more prominent role in the negotiation of multilateral trade agreements and benefit more fully from the outcomes. The G-8 asked multilateral institutions to provide additional assistance to poor countries to develop their trade capacity and ease the adjustment costs arising from trade liberalization. In response, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposed to enhance the Integrated Framework for Trade-related Technical Assistance for the LDCs (box 3.1), a move endorsed at the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in September and at the WTO Hong Kong Ministerial in December. Although the Doha Development Round was not completed as planned at the WTO Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong in December 2005, modest progress was made. In particular, participants agreed to phase out agricultural subsidies by 2013, and developed countries agreed to provide market access (free from quotas and duties) to the LDCs on 97 percent of their tariff lines.

Donors have enhanced their commitments to scale up aid At the G-8 Summit in Gleneagles, Scotland, donors announced their commitment to increase ODA by $50 billion by 2010 (in real terms) from 2004 levels. Many donor countries have made explicit commitments to scale up aid significantly

over the medium term. Five of the 22 DAC member countries have already increased ODA to levels that exceed the UN target (Norway, 0.87 percent of GNI; Denmark, 0.85 percent; Luxembourg, 0.83 percent; Sweden, 0.73 percent; the Netherlands, 0.73 percent). The European Union has pledged to increase ODA provided by its member countries from 0.35 percent of GNI in 2004 to 0.7 percent by 2015, with an interim target of 0.56 percent by 2010.5 Moreover, six EU member countries announced commitments to attain the 0.7 percent UN target prior to 2015 (Belgium and Finland by 2010; France, Ireland, and Spain by 2012; and the United Kingdom by 2013). Other donors have made commitments that are not linked to the UN target. For example, ODA provided by the United States is projected to decline from $27.5 billion in 2005 ($23.4 billion excluding debt relief grants) to $24 billion in 2006 (in real terms) and remain at that level to 2010, based on commitments announced on the margins of the G-8 Summit.6 At the G-8 Summit, Japan announced its intention to increase ODA by $10 billion over the next five years. Projections based on these commitments imply that the share of total ODA provided by the United States will decline from 26 percent in 2005 to 19 percent in 2010, while that provided by the EU member countries as a group will increase from 54 percent to 63 percent (table 3.5).

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Box 3.1 The Integrated Framework for Trade-Related Technical Assistance

T

he Integrated Framework for Trade-Related Technical Assistance (IF) brings together the International Monetary Fund, International Trade Centre, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, United Nations Development Programme, World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and bilateral donors to: (i) integrate trade into the national development plans of LDCs; and (ii) assist in the coordinated delivery of trade-related technical assistance. The IF is built on the principles of country ownership and partnership. It consists of diagnostic studies, technical assistance projects, and capacity-building projects valued at up to $1 million per country. By the end of 2005, diagnostics had been completed in 20 countries, with a further 17 countries in the process

or applying to join. As of September 2005, 30 capacitybuilding projects had been approved in 12 countries, amounting to $10 million, and 17 donors, including the World Bank, had pledged a total of $34 million to the IF Trust Fund. To date, the IF has completed several capacity-building projects; made solid progress in the difficult task of coordinating donors and international agencies; contributed to increased understanding of the constraints facing poor countries; and brought IF governments to the table on trade. Of the eight IF countries that had completed diagnostics at the time of their poverty reduction strategy, three incorporated the recommendations, and two were working to do so for their next poverty reduction strategy.

Table 3.5 Donors’ shares of ODA in 2005, projected 2010 Percent 2005

2005 (excluding debt relief)

2010

United States Japan United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands Italy

25.8 12.3 10.1 9.4 9.3 4.8 4.7

28.0 11.4 8.5 8.2 7.6 5.7 4.0

18.7 9.3 11.4 11.0 12.1 4.0 7.2

Sum:

76.5

73.4

73.7

Memo item: EU Members

53.9

49.2

63.4

Source: Projections by the OECD DAC Secretariat.

ODA is expected to decline as a percentage of GNI in the short run and then increase gradually over the balance of the decade ODA is expected to decline in 2006 as the debt relief component falls to more normal levels (figure 3.4). ODA will continue to be affected by further debt relief to be provided to Iraq and Nigeria by its Paris Club creditors over the coming few years, but in smaller amounts than in 2005. This explains the transitory nature of the ODA surge in 2005. Based on current commitments of DAC donors, the OECD DAC Secretariat is projecting that ODA will decline from 0.33 percent of GNI in 2005 to

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about 0.29 percent in 2006–7 and then rise gradually over the balance of the decade as a percent of their GNI, reaching 0.36 percent in 2010, just slightly above levels attained in the early 1990s. The projections imply that ODA as a ratio to GNI in donor countries will increase by about 0.017 of a percentage point per year on average over the period 2005–10. Extrapolating this rate of increase would mean that the UN target of 0.7 percent would not be attained until 2030, 15 years after the 2015 deadline set for attaining the MDGs. The UN Millennium Project (2005) estimates that financing the MDGs requires an increase in ODA (excluding debt relief) to 0.46 percent of GNI by 2010, suggesting that current commitments fall short. There is, however, a high degree of uncertainty surrounding such estimates.7 Moreover, the quality of aid, is as, or perhaps even more, important than the quantity of aid for supporting developing countries progress on the MDGs. For example, enriching special purpose grants rather than direct budgetary support could have quite different implications for the ability of developing countries to fund programs that are deemed to be critical for accelerating progress of the MDGs. Commitments to increase ODA have been made despite the very high level of general government deficits in many donor countries. Fiscal deficits are expected to exceed or be close to 3 per-

S U P P O R T I N G

Figure 3.4 Net ODA as a percentage of GNI in DAC donor countries, 1990–2005 and projected 2006–10

D E V E L O P M E N T

T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

D E B T

R E L I E F

Table 3.6 General government financial balances in 2004, projected 2005–7 Percent of GDP

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC); projections by the OECD DAC Secretariat.

cent of GDP in 2005/6 in six of the seven largest DAC donor countries, which together accounted for three-quarters of total ODA in 2004 (table 3.6). However, ODA makes up less than 1 percent of fiscal revenues and expenditures in six of the seven major donor countries (the Netherlands being the exception) (table 3.7). Donors have examined several innovative financing mechanisms that could augment aid flows, including the International Finance Facility for Immunization, advance market commitments for vaccines, and airline departure taxes.8

Donors have agreed to provide significant increases in aid for Africa With 10 years remaining for developing countries to meet the MDGs, Africa is the only continent not on track to meet any of the goals. The past year was to be the year of Africa. It began with a report issued by the Commission for Africa in March. British Prime Minister Tony Blair had launched the commission in February 2004 to take a fresh look at Africa’s past and present, as well as the international community’s role in its development path. The report called for a doubling of aid by 2010, while recognizing the need for African countries to improve governance and accelerate policy reforms so that higher amounts of aid could be absorbed effectively. Countries at the African Union Summit in June reaffirmed their commitment to promoting economic growth and reducing poverty. In turn, at the G-8 Summit in July, “Africa and Development” was adopted as one of two main themes. The G-8 leaders supported the

2004

2005c

2006c

2007c

United Statesa Japana United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands Italy

–4.7 –6.5 –3.2 –3.6 –3.7 –2.1 –3.3

–3.7 –6.5 –3.1 –3.2 –3.9 –1.6 –4.3

–4.2 –6.0 –3.0 –3.2 –3.6 –1.8 –4.2

–3.9 –6.0 –3.2 –3.0 –2.6 –1.5 –4.8

Weighted average:b

–4.3

–3.9

–4.0

–3.8

Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 78 Annex Table 27. a. Including social security. b. Weighted using shares of ODA in 2005 listed in Table 3.5. c. Projected.

Table 3.7 ODA as a percentage of fiscal expenditures and revenues in 2004, projected 2006 Percent Expendituresa

United States Japan United Kingdom France Germany Netherlands Italy

Revenuesb

2004

2006c

2004

2006c

0.46 0.51 0.84 0.79 0.59 1.56 0.30

0.49 0.55 0.90 0.87 0.72 1.65 0.64

0.53 0.51 0.90 0.85 0.64 1.64 0.32

0.55 0.55 0.97 0.93 0.78 1.71 0.70

Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 78 Annex tables 2 and 26. a. General government total outlays. b. General government total tax and nontax receipts. c. Projected.

recommendations of the Africa Commission (including the doubling of aid to Sub-Saharan Africa by 2010), while underlining the importance of good governance, democracy, and transparency on the continent. Building on this momentum, the World Bank presented its Africa Action Plan in September, setting out a program of concrete, results-oriented actions for the Bank and development partners to assist all African countries to meet as many MDGs as possible. Current commitments by donors imply a significant scaling-up in aid to low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Donors have committed to increase total ODA by about $50 billion by 2010 (in real terms), at least half of which is slated for Sub-Saharan Africa. This would double the amount of aid to the region by 2010 and raise its share of total ODA from 40 percent in 2004 to almost 50 percent in 2010.

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The new commitments have raised concerns about absorptive capacity The commitment by donors to double the amount of aid to Sub-Saharan Africa by 2010 raises the question of absorptive capacity. There is a concern that a substantial increase in aid flows to some countries could have unfavorable macroeconomic repercussions. Specially, there is a risk that a surge in aid flows could lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate (either through inflation or the nominal exchange rate), which could in turn undermine competitiveness and thereby curtail exports. This so-called Dutch disease could undermine growth, particularly in countries where the export sector provides a key source of productivity growth (because of dynamic externalities such as learning by doing). Assessing the overall consequences of a surge in aid flows requires considering the potential benefits, along with the costs. For example, investments in public infrastructure could boost productivity and thereby improve competitiveness, offsetting the impact of a real exchange rate appreciation. Moreover, higher spending on programs needed to accelerate progress on the MDGs could also enhance growth over the longer term (education and health being prime examples). The empirical evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of aid surges is inconclusive.9 Recent aid surges in a number of African countries have coincided with a depreciation of the real exchange rate, contrary to theory.10 It is unclear, however, whether that outcome reflected productivity-enhancing benefits of higher aid, or whether the higher aid was not spent or “absorbed” by recipient countries.11 Donors and recipient countries need to pay careful attention to the macroeconomic consequences of higher aid flows for inflation, domestic interest rates, and fiscal balances, taking into account the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the effects on competitiveness and productivity. Moreover, Bourguignon and Sundberg (2006a and 2006b) stress that absorptive capacity is a dynamic concept that depends on the composition and sequencing of aid, as well as characteristics of the local economy (labor markets, institutions, demand side constraints, etc.). And as such, a country’s absorptive capacity can be enhanced by strategic planning that aims to identify key constraints to growth and expand its productive capacity through targeted and carefully sequenced

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investments (developing public infrastructure and labor market training initiatives being prime examples) and through improvements in governance. Current proposals under study involve scaling up aid significantly with predictable flows of grantfinanced aid to selected countries that have relatively strong institutions and governance. The historical record provides few examples along these lines and, hence, it is difficult to estimate the response of key macro variables—the real exchange rate, interest rates, inflation, and output growth— under such circumstances. Researchers have developed modeling frameworks that can provide insights into the complex linkages between the sequencing and components of aid and the growth process, taking into account some of the constraints that can hinder development. As an example, model simulations reported by Sundberg and Lofgren (2006) indicate that a cost-minimizing strategy for achieving the MDGs in the case of Ethiopia entails a front-loaded expansion in infrastructure spending with constantly growing social spending.

Improving aid effectiveness plays a critical role in the development agenda In addition to their commitments to scale up the volume of aid, donors promised to improve the effectiveness of aid. Ministers of developed and developing countries responsible for promoting development, along with heads of multilateral and bilateral development institutions, together representing 90 countries and 26 multilateral organizations, participated in the OECD HighLevel Forum in March. Participants at the Forum recognized that while the volumes of aid and other development resources must increase to achieve the MDGs, aid effectiveness must increase commensurately to support partner-country efforts to strengthen governance and improve development performance. To this end, the “Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness” committed donor countries, partner countries, and multilateral institutions to: •

•

Strengthen partner countries’ national development strategies and associated operational frameworks Increase alignment of aid with partner countries’ priorities, systems, and procedures, and help to strengthen their capacities

S U P P O R T I N G

•

•

•

•

Enhance donors’ and partner countries’ respective accountability to their citizens and parliaments for their development policies, strategies, and performance Eliminate duplication of efforts and rationalize donor activities to make them as costeffective as possible Reform and simplify donor policies and procedures to encourage collaborative behavior and progressive alignment with partner countries’ priorities, systems, and procedures Define measures and standards of performance and accountability of partner-country systems in public financial management, procurement, fiduciary safeguards, and environmental assessments, in line with broadly accepted good practices and their quick and widespread application.

Tangible indicators and targets were established so that progress toward the commitments could be tracked. To this end, donor and partner countries are working together to develop an international monitoring system that will enable them to measure progress toward the targets identified in the Paris Declaration.

Debt relief: improving and maintaining debt sustainability

P

rogress continues on reducing the debt burdens of the poorest countries, particularly those in Africa. Debt relief is provided under the HIPC Initiative, through the Paris Club, and on a bilateral basis. According to the data reported by OECD DAC donors, grants provided for debt relief from all three sources have increased significantly over

D E V E L O P M E N T

T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

D E B T

R E L I E F

the past few years, reaching $23 billion in 2005, largely due to $19 billion in debt relief provided by the Paris Club to Iraq and Nigeria. In the three years prior to 2005, debt relief grants averaged $6.7 billion, well above the $3.4 billion average in 1990–2002, with most of the additional resources going to the poorest countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa (table 3.8). Of the total $20 billion in debt-relief grants provided by DAC donors over the period 2002–4, more than half was allocated to the LDCs, up from an average share of 29 percent over the period 1990–2001. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa received almost three-quarters of debt relief provided in 2002–4, up from just over a third during the period 1990–2001.

The HIPC Initiative is significantly reducing the debt service burdens of some poor countries The HIPC Initiative has substantially eased the debt-service burden of a small group of poor countries, most of which are in Africa (box 3.2).12 The 28 countries that reached the “decision point” for debt relief under the initiative prior to 2006 received $2.3 billion per year in debt relief from 2001 to 2005, equal to 2.2 percent of their GDP and 9.2 percent of their exports.13 The HIPC Initiative has provided debt relief equal to about half of the debt service due from the group. Debt-service payments for the 28 countries equaled 1.8 percent of their collective GDP in 2005 (down from 3.2 percent in 2000); were it not for debt relief under HIPC, they would have been an estimated 3.8 percent of GDP in 2005 (figure 3.5). The amount of debt relief provided has varied considerably across countries. In 4 of the 28 countries that reached the decision point prior to 2006, HIPC debt-service reduction exceeded 5 percent of GDP on average over the period 1998–2006, but

Table 3.8 Debt-relief grants provided by DAC donor countries, by income and region of beneficiary, 1990–2005 $ billions 1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Debt relief grants

4.3

3.7

2.0

2.5

4.5

8.3

7.1

23.0

Allocation across income classifications Least-developed countries Other low-income countries

0.9 1.1

0.9 0.6

1.2 0.3

1.1 0.8

2.2 1.1

5.6 2.2

3.4 2.7

— —

Allocation across regions Sub-Saharan Africa Other regions

2.2 2.2

1.2 2.6

1.2 0.8

1.3 1.2

3.0 1.6

6.5 1.9

5.0 2.1

— —

Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC).

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The HIPC Initiative

T

he HIPC Initiative was launched by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1996, amid growing concerns that excessive debt was crippling efforts to reduce poverty in some of the poorest countries. It was based on agreement by multilateral organizations and governments to offer a fresh start to countries that were making efforts to reduce poverty by reducing their external debt burdens to sustainable levels. The HIPC Initiative was enhanced in 1999 to provide deeper and faster debt relief to a larger group of countries and to increase the links with poverty reduction efforts in those countries. There are currently 40 countries eligible for the HIPC Initiative, 33 of which are in Sub-Saharan Africa. So far 29 countries have reached the “decision point” at which donors make a commitment to provide the debt relief necessary to meet a specified debt ratio. The Republic of Congo reached the decision point in March 2006. Of these, 19 have reached the “completion point,” at which they receive irrevocable debt relief. Honduras, Rwanda,

and Zambia reached the completion point in 2005, followed by Cameroon in May 2006. The debt relief accorded the remaining 10 decision-point countries will not become irrevocable until they pass the completion point. All 10 decision-point countries are expected to reach the completion point by the end of 2007. The 11 remaining countries that are already eligible for the HIPC Initiative are referred to as the “pre-decision” countries. All 11 countries are expected to reach the completion point by the end of 2010.* The HIPC initiative is estimated to cost about $41 billion in debt relief to the 29 countries that have reached the decision point, measured in net present value terms at the end of 2004. Most of the debt relief will be provided by multilateral creditors (50 percent) and official bilateral creditors (47 percent). Commercial creditors (3 percent) have played a relatively minor role. *See World Bank 2006b (p. 20 Annex 2.3) for a list of estimates for completion-point dates.

Estimated costs of the HIPC Initiative $ billions, net present value at end-2004 Completion point (18 countries)

Decision point (11 countries)

Total (29 countries)

Multilateral creditors of which: World Bank IMF AfDF/AfDB IDB Other

14.5

5.8

20.3

7.0 2.2 1.9 1.3 2.1

2.3 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.9

9.3 3.0 3.4 1.3 3.0

Official bilateral creditors of which: Paris Club Other

12.3

7.0

19.3

8.9 3.3

5.8 0.3

14.7 3.7

Commercial creditors Total

0.7 27.5

0.8 13.6

1.5 41.1

Sources: World Bank and IMF 2005 (table 2) and World Bank Staff estimates.

less than 1 percent in 4 other countries (figure 3.6).14 There are also large differences between countries’ debt-service burdens. In 2005, debtservice payments exceeded 5 percent of GDP in 4 countries, but was less than 1 percent in 4 other countries (figure 3.7). This reflects the fact that some countries had higher debt-service burdens prior to HIPC debt relief and that some countries received more HIPC debt relief than others. Debt relief provided under the HIPC Initiative will free up additional resources in recipient coun-

88

tries only if it does not displace other components of foreign aid. As with the more general case of debt relief mentioned above, it is difficult to assess whether HIPC debt relief has been additional in the absence of an explicit counterfactual showing. The share of ODA allocated to the 29 decisionpoint HIPCs has increased substantially over the past few years, rising from 19 percent in 1999 to 28.5 percent in 2004. This suggests that HIPC debt relief has not displaced other components of ODA. However, the share of ODA allocated to

S U P P O R T I N G

countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and to the LDCs increased by even more during this period.

D E V E L O P M E N T

T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

D E B T

R E L I E F

Figure 3.5 Debt-service payments and HIPC debt service reduction for 28 “decision point” HIPCs % of GDP

The Paris Club plays an important role in the HIPC Initiative The Paris Club has made an important contribution to the debt relief provided to HIPCs. Initially, the Paris Club provided cash-flow relief to distressed debtors (debt restructuring), but no debt relief in the sense of reducing the net present value of the debt (box 3.3). However, in the mid-1980s it became apparent that debt burdens in many low-income countries were unsustainable and that debt relief was needed. Beginning in 1988, the Paris Club began providing concessional debt relief to poor countries, first under Toronto Terms,

5 4 3 2 1 0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

HIPC debt service reduction/GDP Debt service paid/GDP

Sources: World Bank and IMF 2005 (table 1A) and staff estimates.

Figure 3.6 Debt-service reduction provided by the HIPC Initiative to 25 decision-point countries % of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2

G u N ya ic n a a M rag au u rit a an G ia H han M ond a ad u ag ras as ca Be r Se nin ne Za gal C m am bi er a R oon w Sã T an o Bu an da To rk za m ina nia é & Fa Si Pri so er nc ra ip Le e o M ne al Et aw hi i op ia M al M oz Ch i am a bi d q G ue ui U nea ga n Th N da e ig G er am b Bo ia liv ia

0

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

Figure 3.7 Debt service paid by 25 decision-point HIPCs, 2000 versus 2005 % of GDP

2000

2005

15 12 9 6 3

Sã

o

To m

é & P Th rin e cip G am e b Bo ia liv M ia al G awi uy a G na M uin au ea r C itan am ia er oo Si Za n er m ra bia Le Se one N neg ic ar al ag ua M G ali H han un a du r M Ug as oz an a d M mb a ad iq ag ue as ca C r ha d N Ta ige Bu n r rk zan in a ia Fa s Be o Et nin hi o R pi a w an da

0

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

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Box 3.3

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

The Paris Club

T

he year 2006 will mark the fiftieth anniversary of the establishment of the Paris Club of Creditors. Historically this informal body has met in Paris to: (i) review the external debt-servicing performance of debtor countries; (ii) develop rules and mechanisms that may be used to resolve debt-payment difficulties; and (iii) negotiate debt rescheduling or reduction agreements with debtor countries. Since 1956, the club’s 19 creditor members (along with about a dozen invited creditor countries) have reached more than 400 agreements with debtor countries. Initially, the Paris Club provided only cash-flow relief to countries experiencing temporary balance-of-payments difficulties, while maintaining the present value of creditors’ claims. In the past 15 years, however, the club has engaged increasingly in debt-reduction operations covering not only debt flows but also debt stocks. The Paris Club took on greater importance with the onset of the 1980s debt crisis. The number of agreements concluded by the club since the early 1980s has been almost three times the number reached during the first 25 years of its existence. Since 1983, the total amount of debt covered in agreements concluded by the Paris Club or ad hoc groups of Paris Club creditors has been $504 billion. The activities of the Paris Club have been governed by five basic principles: 1.

2.

Creditor solidarity. The members of the Paris Club act as a group in their dealings with a particular debtor country. For debtors this implies that any country seeking a debt rescheduling from the club must agree to treat all its members in the same way; for creditors it implies that club members will refuse to consider a request from a debtor to reschedule debt on a purely “bilateral” basis, that is, outside of the Paris Club framework. Commitment to economic reform. Debt rescheduling requires an economic policy plan aimed at correcting

3.

4.

5.

deficiencies that have brought about the need for debt treatment. As a general rule, such a plan takes the form of an economic adjustment program officially supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) although in a few cases the Paris Club did not require an IMF program. Comparable treatment. The debtor country must secure from all other creditors debt relief terms that involve treatment comparable to those agreed with the Paris Club. Formerly private creditors were not affected by the comparability-of-treatment clause. However, beginning in 1998 (for Pakistan) the Paris Club has asked some debtors to obtain comparable debt relief from bondholders. Agreement by consensus. This principle requires that the Paris Club act only with the concurrence of all of its participants. Case-by-case approach. Paris Club members reserve the right to apply the principles in a flexible manner so as to meet the particular requirements of a specific debtor.

In October 2003, the Paris Club adopted a new approach to treating debt in countries that were not eligible for the HIPC Initiative. The Evian Approach was designed to ensure that debt restructuring was granted only in cases of imminent default and that the debt treatment provided reflected countries’ financial needs and the objective of ensuring debt sustainability. Debt sustainability therefore plays a central role in determining whether and to what extent countries receive debt relief. The adoption of the Evian Approach was followed by two major agreements that provided record amounts of debt relief. In November 2004, the Paris Club agreement with Iraq considered $37 billion in debt, canceling $30 billion (80 percent) and rescheduling the rest. In October 2005, the Paris Club reached an agreement with Nigeria concerning $30 billion in debt, $18 billion (60 percent) of which was canceled.

which provided for a 33 percent reduction in the net present value of the debt. It soon became evident that even more relief was required to reduce debt burdens to sustainable levels. The terms offered by the Paris Club were made more generous in a series of steps. In 1991 London Terms allowed for a 50-percent reduction in net present value; in 1994, Naples Terms allowed for debt relief of as much as 67 percent. Since 1997, debt relief provided by the Paris Club has been an integral part of the HIPC Initiative. To be eligible for the HIPC Initiative, a coun-

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try’s debt must exceed certain threshold levels. Either external debt must be at least 150 percent of exports, or public debt must be at least 250 percent of revenues (in net present value terms), after receiving debt relief from the Paris Club under Naples Terms.15 Under the HIPC Initiative, countries benefit from debt reduction from all creditors (which include the Paris Club and other bilateral official creditors, multilateral creditors, and commercial creditors) in an amount that reduces their debt burden to the threshold levels. In principle, the burden of debt relief is to be shared equally among all cred-

S U P P O R T I N G

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T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

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itors. However, participation is voluntary. In practice, most commercial creditors have not participated,16 while the Paris Club creditors have provided much more than their share of the debt relief. In most cases, Paris Club creditors have cancelled all of the debt owed to them by countries that have reached the completion point.17 In contrast, other official bilateral creditors have committed so far to less than half of their share of debt relief.18

though the amounts paid are small relative to the total amount of debt relief committed by the HIPC Initiative ($38 billion in net present value terms), judgments in favor of creditors set a precedent that could lead to more litigation. Debt relief frees up financial resources, leading creditors to reassess their chances of obtaining a significant judgment in their favor. Thus further debt relief could make the litigation strategy even more alluring.

HIPC debt relief could lead to more litigation by commercial creditors

Further debt relief is envisioned under the HIPC Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

Sharing the burden of debt relief equally across all creditors is complicated by the “collective action” problem. Some commercial creditors have an incentive to “hold out” of an agreement, preferring to pursue their claims through litigation in hopes of obtaining more favorable terms. In corporate bankruptcies, the legal system prevents creditors from engaging in such “free-riding” and imposes rules for collective action. But in the case of sovereign debt restructuring, there is no overriding legal system that has such jurisdiction over all creditors. Hence, collective action cannot be imposed through legal means. Some commercial creditors have prevailed in litigation against HIPCs. There are currently 24 litigation cases on record against HIPCs, 4 of which were new in 2005; court awards to creditors total $586 million, of which countries have paid only about $35 million.19 Al-

Box 3.4

T

R E L I E F

The HIPC initiative will continue to reduce debtservice burdens. In 2006/7, some $2.6 billion in relief will be provided annually to the 29 decisionpoint countries, up from an average of $2.3 billion provided during 2001–5. Debt service by these countries is projected to remain unchanged in 2006/7 relative to their GDP and exports, but the total amount of debt relief provided under the HIPC Initiative will increase over time as additional countries reach the decision point and completion point. Following on the HIPC initiative, the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) will achieve further, significant reductions in the debt burden of poor countries (box 3.4). The MRDI calls for complete cancellation of debt owed to the International Development Association (IDA), the IMF,

The MDRI

he Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) was proposed in June 2005 by the G-8 Finance Ministers as a way to free up additional resources to help poor countries with high debt levels make progress toward the Millennium Development Goals. Under the MDRI, three multilateral institutions—the International Development Association (IDA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the African Development Fund (AfDF)—will cancel all claims on countries that reach the completion point under the HIPC initiative. The IMF and IDA have approved debt relief under the MDRI for 17 of the 18 HIPCs that have already reached the completion point. The exception, Mauritania, will qualify for debt relief under the MDRI after implementing key public expenditure management reforms. (Approval by the AfDF is expected to come in April 2006.)

Although the MDRI is a common initiative, the approach to coverage and implementation varies somewhat across the three institutions.* The IMF Executive Board modified the proposal to reflect the Fund’s requirement that the use of IMF resources be consistent with uniformity of treatment. Thus, it was agreed that all countries with per capita income of $380 a year or less (HIPCs and non-HIPCs) would receive MDRI debt relief financed by the IMF’s own resources. Two non-HIPCs— Cambodia and Tajikistan—were certified as eligible for MDRI debt relief from the IMF on this basis. HIPCs with per capita income above that threshold would receive MDRI relief from bilateral contributions administered by the IMF. *See World Bank (2006a) for a more detailed discussion of the implementation of the MDRI.

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and the African Development Fund (AfDF) by countries that reach the HIPC completion point. The process of reaching the HIPC completion point includes conditions relating to governance, accountability, and transparency. The MDRI can be interpreted as an extension and a deepening of the HIPC Initiative. Eligibility will require meeting the HIPC completion-point criteria, which include (i) satisfactory macroeconomic performance under an IMF poverty reduction and growth facility program (PRGF) or equivalent; (ii) satisfactory performance in implementing a poverty reduction strategy; and (iii) the existence of a public expenditure management system that meets minimum standards for governance and transparency in the use of public resources. The objective of the MDRI is to provide additional support to HIPCs to reach the MDGs, while ensuring that the financing capacity of the international financial institutions is preserved. Debt stocks in the 18 countries that reached the HIPC completion point prior to 2006 will be reduced by an estimated $17 billion (in net-present-value terms, valued at end-2004), with most of the reduction coming from cancellation of IDA credit repayments of $12 billion (table 3.9).20 If all 11 decision-point countries were to reach the completion point by the end of 2007, the total amount of debt relief would be almost $22.4 billion, an amount equal to 56 percent of the debt relief provided under the HIPC initiative to the same set of countries ($40 billion). For the 18 HIPCs that reached the completion point prior to 2006, the MDRI will reduce debt service payments by $0.9 billion on average in 2007–17 and then rise to a peak of $1.5 billion on average in 2022–4 (figure 3.8). The total amount of debt relief provided by the MDRI will rise over time as additional countries reach the completion point.21 The modest increase in 2006 reflects the fact that the MDRI will not be implemented by IDA until July 2006 (the beginning of its fiscal year).

Figure 3.8 Debt-service reduction to be provided by the MDRI, 2006–45 $ billions 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2006

2012

2018

2024

2030

2036

2042

2048

11 pre-decision-point HIPCs 11 decision-point HIPCs 18 completion-point HIPCs

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

The two-humped shape of the debt-service-reduction profile is due to the fact that the bulk of outstanding IMF loans to these countries are scheduled to mature within three to six years (figure 3.9). Outstanding IDA and AfDB loans have a much longer duration (extending out to 40 years), so the debt-service-reduction profile is much more gradual once the IMF loans have disappeared from the picture. The MDRI will affect flows of assistance from IDA and the AfDF to recipient countries in two ways. First, annual gross assistance from IDA and the AfDF to a given country will be reduced by the amount of debt relief provided that year. Second,

Figure 3.9 Debt-service reduction to be provided to 18 completion-point HIPCs under the MDRI, 2006–45 $ billions 2.0 IDA 1.5

Table 3.9 Debt-service reductions to be provided by the MDRI $ billions, net present value at end-2004

1.0

Completion-point countries (18)

Decision-point countries (11)

Total for 29 countries

Pre-decision point countries (9)

Total for 38 countries

12.1 2.8 2.3 17.2

2.8 1.4 1.1 5.3

14.9 4.2 3.4 22.4

1.2 0.3 0.3 1.8

16.1 4.5 3.6 24.2

IMF

0.5

IDA IMF AfDF Total

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

92

2054

AfDF

0.0 2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

2031

2036

2041

S U P P O R T I N G

donors will make additional contributions to compensate IDA and the AfDF for the total reduction in gross assistance flows in each year. Donors have specified that the additional contributions are to be calculated relative to a baseline that maintains current contribution levels in real terms (adjusted for inflation). Under the current replenishment of IDA (IDA14) donors have agreed to make contributions of almost $15 billion between July 2006 and June 2008, or about $5 billion per year. Debt relief on IDA loans under the MDRI will be financed by donors over and above the $5 billion level, measured in real terms to compensate for the effect of inflation.22 If the annual inflation rate were constant at 2 percent, the baseline contribution level would rise to $5.4 billion in 2010 and $8.0 billion in 2030 in nominal terms (figure 3.10 and table 3.10). Donors’ commitment to compensate IDA for the total reduction in gross assistance flows is equal to the debt service reduction provided to the recipient countries (figure 3.8). Donors’ total financing commitment comprised of compensation for the effect of inflation and for the reduction in gross assistance flows rises to $7.0 billion in 2010 and $9.7 billion by 2030. Donors’ commitment to preserve financing of the AfDF is specified in a similar manner. The additional resources provided to refinance IDA and the AfDF will be reallocated to recipients using each institution’s existing performance-based allocation mechanism, thereby alleviating the risk of “moral hazard” associated Figure 3.10 Donors’ commitment to refinance IDA for debt relief provided under the MDRI, 2006–45 $ billions 12 10 8 6

T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

D E B T

R E L I E F

Table 3.10 Donors’ commitment to refinance IDA for debt relief provided under the MDRI, selected years $ billions

Baseline for IDA replenishments Compensation for reduction in gross assistance flows (equal to debt service reduction) Total financing commitments

2006

2007

2010

2020

2030

5.0

5.1

5.4

6.6

8.0

0.8 5.8

1.2 6.3

1.6 7.0

1.7 8.3

1.6 9.7

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

with providing debt relief to countries with the highest debt burdens. In other words, debt relief provided under the MDRI will result in an increase in aid (above countries’ initial allocation), only to the extent that the country shares in the performance-based allocation. Countries that do not qualify for debt relief under the MDRI may qualify for the reallocated resources and thereby benefit from the initiative. Although the amount of debt relief provided under the HIPC Initiative has been small relative to the total amount of foreign aid received by all developing countries, it is substantial for many of the individual countries that qualify. In 2004, HIPC debt-service reductions provided to the 27 countries that reached the completion point prior to 2005 totaled $2.3 billion, an amount equal to just 3 percent of total ODA ($79.6 billion), but 12 percent of ODA received by the 27 countries ($18.6 billion). Moreover, HIPC debt-service reductions exceeded 20 percent of ODA received by 8 of the 27 countries. Additional debt service reductions provided by the MDRI are expected to keep pace with the scaling up of aid to the HIPCs. In 2007, debt-service reductions provided by the HIPC Initiative and MDRI combined are projected to remain at about 12 percent of the amount of ODA received by countries that reach the completion point.

A gap is opening between countries that qualify for debt relief and those that do not

4 2 0 2006

D E V E L O P M E N T

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

Compensation for reduction in gross assistance flows (equal to debt service reduction) Baseline for IDA replenishments

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

Taken together, debt relief provided by the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI will substantially reduce the debt burdens of qualifying countries. For the 18 countries that reached the completion point prior to 2006, the HIPC Initiative reduces their total debt stock from 55 percent of their GDP to 30 percent; the MDRI then reduces it further to 13 percent (in net present value terms). In 4 of the 18

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countries the debt-to-GDP ratio will decline by more than 90 percentage points. Debt stocks will fall below 30 percent of GDP in all countries except one (Guyana), and in 10 of the 18 countries, debt will fall below 10 percent of GDP, well below the average for developing countries ([32] percent in 2005) (figure 3.11).23 Similar reductions would result for other countries that reached the HIPC completion point. For the 11 HIPCs that have reached the decision point, but not the completion point, the median debt burden was 41.2 percent of GDP in 2004 (in present value terms), which is below that for middleincome countries (44.8 percent) (table 3.11). Similar results hold for the low-income countries that are not currently eligible for the HIPC Initiative (the “other low-income countries” reported in table 3.11). Relative to exports, however, the debt burden in the 11 decision-point HIPCs is significantly higher than in other low-income countries (183.7 percent Figure 3.11 Debt burdens in 18 completion-point HIPCs, before and after the HIPC and MDRI debt relief

Source: World Bank staff estimates.

Table 3.11 Net present value of external debt relative to GNI and exports, 2004 Percent Number of countries

Completion-point HIPCs after HIPC debt relief, prior to MDRI after HIPC debt relief and MDRI Decision point HIPCs Pre-decision-point HIPCs Other low-income countries Middle-income countries

Median of present value of debt/exports

Median of present value of debt/GNI

102.2 41.1 183.7 150.4 99.5 98.0

27.6 8.6 41.2 67.1 46.3 44.8

18

11 9 18 76

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

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compared to 99.5 percent). All 11 countries are expected to reach the completion point by the end of 2007, which will reduce their debt burdens significantly (to less than 15 percent of GDP and 50 percent of exports in most cases). For the 11 countries that are currently eligible for the HIPC Initiative but have not yet reached the decision point, the median debt burden was 67.1 percent of GDP and 150.4 percent of exports in 2004. These countries therefore have a very strong incentive to reach the decision and completion points, in order to qualify for debt relief under the HIPC Initiative and the MDRI.

Debt relief raises concerns about excessive borrowing in the future The low debt burdens in countries receive MDRI debt relief will improve their creditworthiness significantly, raising concerns that they might borrow excessively from nonconcessional sources. This could offset the efforts made to improve debt sustainability, leading to yet another lending-forgiveness cycle. But why would countries borrow “excessively”? And why would private creditors be willing to lend “excessively”? Determining whether countries are borrowing excessively is not straightforward. Loans used to finance investment projects that generate revenues will not erode debt sustainability if the rates of return cover the cost of financing. From this perspective, debt sustainability is determined by the quality of the investments made, not by the quantity borrowed. Accessing external private capital entails significant risks, but it also provides potential benefits. Financial crises have led to major setbacks in many emerging market economies over the past few decades. On the other hand, external private capital can play a valuable role in the development process, particularly for countries in which domestic savings are inadequate to finance productive investment projects with high private and social rates of return. Countries therefore face the challenge of balancing the potential risks and benefits. Part of the concern about excessive nonconcessional borrowing stems from the incentive problems associated with providing publicly funded debt-relief initiatives. The public funding introduces an element of moral hazard into borrowing and lending decisions. If borrowers and lenders perceive publicly funded debt relief as an

S U P P O R T I N G

ongoing feature of the development agenda, countries have an incentive to increase borrowing beyond prudent levels, under the expectation that debt relief will be provided by donors if they encounter difficulties in meeting their debt-service obligations. Similarly, some investors might believe that their exposure to poor countries is reduced by an implicit guarantee of publicly funded debt relief, which would limit their downside risk, making them willing to lend at a lower rate. Another factor underlying the concern about excessive nonconcessional borrowing stems from the inherent trade-off in scaling up the financial resources required to accelerate progress on MDGs while maintaining debt sustainability. Grants provide countries with financial resources without sacrificing debt sustainability. But the availability of grants is limited. Loans provide additional financial resources, but raise the risk of debt distress, particularly when loans are made on nonconcessional terms. Countries may be more willing to accept a higher risk of debt distress in order to gain additional resources. Official creditors may prefer a more prudent approach to borrowing; one

Box 3.5

T

D E V E L O P M E N T

T H R O U G H

A I D

A N D

D E B T

R E L I E F

that puts more weight on debt sustainability, with the aim of preventing a recurrence of lendingforgiveness cycles. The Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) for low-income countries developed jointly by the IMF and the World Bank provides a framework for managing the risks associated with additional borrowing (box 3.5). The DSF captures the distinction between concessional and nonconcessional borrowing by measuring debt in net present value terms. Nonconcessional borrowing raises the debt burden by more (in net present value terms) for the same amount of financial resources. In other words, borrowing on concessional terms improves the trade-off between debt sustainability and resource flows. More generally, it is the overall degree of concessionality in a country’s loan portfolio that determines how many more resources can be provided without sacrificing debt sustainability. The DSF can be used to assess the risks associated with additional borrowing. Assessing the risks are complicated by the high degree of uncertainty surrounding economic projections over long time horizons (measured in decades), especially when the

The DSF for low-income countries

he International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank jointly assess debt sustainability in countries that receive credits and grants from the International Development Association (IDA) and that are eligible for resources under the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The DSF is used by IDA and the African Development Fund (AfDF) to allocate credits (not loans) to countries. It is also used by the Paris Club to help determine whether a country’s debt is sustainable and, if it is not, how much debt relief would be required to attain debt sustainability over the long term. The objective is to monitor the evolution of countries’ debt-burden indicators and to guide future financing decisions. The DSF traces the evolution of external and public debt and debt-service indicators over the long term with reference to a baseline projection based on realistic assumptions. Stress tests are conducted to illustrate the implications of adverse shocks to key macroeconomic variables (typically lower growth, higher interest rates, and an exchange rate depreciation), along with other selected scenarios of specific interest to the country under study (for example, an increase in a contingent liability of the public sector).

The external debt burden of each country is assessed over the projection horizon with reference to threshold levels that depend on the quality of a country’s policies and institutions. The World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) is used to classify countries into three performance categories (strong, medium, and poor). Debt thresholds for strong policy performers are highest. The risk of external debt distress is then assessed with reference to four risk classifications: low, medium, high, and “in debt distress.” Empirical studies indicate that low-income countries with better policies and institutions have a lower risk of debt distress (see IMF and World Bank 2004 and the references therein). The risk classifications do not fully capture the complexity of the assessment. For example, in cases where the various indicators give different signals, there is still a need for careful interpretation and judgment. Furthermore, vulnerabilities related to domestic public debt should also be taken into account. The past record in meeting debt-service obligations may also be a factor in determining the classification, especially for countries at high or moderate risk of debt distress.

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additional borrowing is used to fund projects and programs that have the potential to enhance economic growth significantly over the long term. Managing the risks by setting limits on additional borrowing would require agreement among all creditors on the assessment of debt sustainability and the degree of risk to be tolerated. In the case of the main multilateral creditors, there is typically some scope for agreement on the major issues, and moral suasion can be used to enforce limits on additional borrowing. However, reaching agreement among all prospective creditors is generally be problematic, and, under such conditions, moral suasion is likely to be ineffective in enforcing borrowing limits. For countries with IMF programs, the collective-action problem is addressed by setting limits on additional borrowing, which help ensure that additional resource flows do not endanger debt sustainability. However, for countries without an IMF program, it will be difficult to monitor and set limits on nonconcessional borrowing. What has been the experience so far for countries that have already received HIPC debt relief? Has their borrowing increased significantly?

Net official lending to decision-point HIPCs has been stable Net concessional lending from the official sector to the 27 HIPCs that reached the decision point prior to 2005 declined significantly in the mid1990s (figure 3.12).24 The transitory increase in 2002 was partly due to a resumption in concessionary lending to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2002.25 Non-concessional lending from the official sector to the 27 countries has

Figure 3.12 Net official lending to 27 decisionpoint HIPCs as a percent of GDP, 1990–2004

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System.

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been declining for several years, resulting in lower debt service costs. Since 1990, repayments on outstanding loans have exceeded disbursements of new loans by 0.4 percent of GDP on average. Net private debt inflows to 27 HIPCs that reached the decision point before 2005 contracted by $0.75 billion (0.7 percent of GDP) on average over the period 2000–3, before rebounding to $0.5 billion in 2004 (0.4 percent of GDP).26 The rebound in 2004 was lower than in other low-income countries, where net private debt inflows increased from an average level of $0.4 billion (0.05 percent of GDP) in 2000–3 to $7.2 billion (0.7 percent of GDP) in 2004. The rebound in 2004 was mainly concentrated in 4 of the 29 decision-point HIPCs: Tanzania ($168 million, 1.5 percent of GDP), Honduras ($151 million, 2.0 percent of GDP), Cameroon ($133 million, 0.9 percent of GDP), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo ($88 million, 1.3 percent of GDP). The private debt burden of the 27 countries as a group has declined significantly, falling from more than 20 percent in the early 1990s to less than 9 percent in 2004, comparable to the level in other low-income countries but well below that for middle-income countries (25 percent in 2004). Private debt exceeded 20 percent of GDP in only 2 of the 27 countries in 2004 (Nicaragua at 25 percent and Mozambique at 23.4 percent), while 13 countries recorded ratios of private debt to GDP of under 5 percent. International credit-rating agencies have recently begun issuing sovereign debt ratings for some low-income countries. Credit ratings enhance transparency and help private investors assess the risk of holding sovereign debt. Thirteen of the 29 decision-point HIPCs are currently rated by international agencies (table 3.12). Benin, Ghana, and Senegal are rated B+ by Standard and Poor’s; Ghana and Mozambique are rated B+ by Fitch. These ratings, the highest among low-income countries, are three notches below investment grade, making it difficult for countries to expand their access to international bond markets. Bank loans and short-term debt account for most of the outstanding private debt (90 percent in 2004) issued by the 29 countries. Medium- and long-term bonds account for a negligible portion, less than 0.1 percent in 2004, down from almost 4 percent in 1993. In 2004, net inflows of medium- and long-term bonds to the 29 countries totaled only $345 million (0.3 percent of GDP), and were con-

S U P P O R T I N G

Table 3.12 Credit ratings for decision-point HIPCs Rating of foreign currency long-term debta Moody’s

Benin Bolivia Burkina Faso Cameroon Ghana Honduras Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Nicaragua Senegal Uganda

B3

Standard & Poor’s

Fitch

B+ B B CCC B+

B B– B– B+

B2 B B B

CCC B– B+

Caa1 B+ B

Sources: Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch. a. As of March 8, 2006.

centrated in just three countries: Honduras ($162 million, 2.2 percent of GDP), Senegal ($92 million, 1.2 percent of GDP), and Ethiopia ($71 million, 0.9 percent of GDP). The creditworthiness of HIPCs that reach the completion point will be enhanced by further debt relief under the MDRI. However, other factors such as the quality of policy and institutional frameworks, and political risk, will continue to have an important influence on credit ratings by international agencies.

The decline in debt service burdens is supported by stronger economic growth Growth has picked up over the past few years in most HIPCs, helping reduce their debt service burden, measured relative to GDP (table 3.13). Real GDP growth in the 27 HIPCs that reached the decision point before 2005 averaged 4.6 percent over the period 2000–5, up considerably from an average rate of 2.6 percent in the 1990s and just 1.8 percent in the 1980s. The pickup in growth has been broadly based across countries—real GDP growth exceeded 4 percent in 16 of 27 decisionpoint HIPCs in 2000–5. It is important to recognize, however, that the range of outcomes was broad—annual per capita real GDP growth declined in 9 of the 27 countries. Moreover, the average increase in real GDP growth in 27 decision-point HIPCs over the sub-periods 1990–9 versus 2000–5 (1.9 percentage points) was the same as in “other low-income countries” (countries that currently are not eligible for the HIPC Initiative) and in middle-income countries. Furthermore, the increase in growth also reflects

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the fact that HIPCs are required to establish a track record of macroeconomic stability in order to reach the decision point. Real GDP growth increased by only half of a percentage point during this period in the 11 countries that are eligible for the HIPC Initiative but had not yet reached the decision point by the end of 2004 (these are the “predecision-point HIPCs” in table 3.13). Clearly, growth has been influenced by many factors beside debt relief. According to the “debt overhang” hypothesis, excessive debt can seriously impede countries’ growth potential.27 Much of the theoretical literature has focused on the adverse incentive effects of excessive debt. Excessive debt raises concerns that the government may resort to inflationary finance or large tax increases to meet its debt-service obligations or that it may default on its obligations at some point in the future. These concerns deter private investment, which curtails growth. Moreover, in countries that are unable to meet their debt-service obligations, governments can be discouraged from carrying out structural reforms if most of the benefits were used to augment debtservice payments. The theoretical literature suggests that external borrowing may foster growth up to some threshold level, beyond which adverse incentives begin to dominate. But empirical research on this issue has been inconclusive, on the whole. There is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding estimates of threshold levels and the effect of debt relief on growth. Recent empirical studies by Clements and others (2003) and Pattillo and others (2004) suggest that the amount of debt relief provided by the

Table 3.13 Average annual real GDP growth, 1990–2005 Percent Average real GDP growtha

Decision-point HIPCsb Pre-decision-point HIPCsc Other low-income countries Middle-income countries

No. of countries

1980–9

1990–9

2000–5

27 11 19 77

1.8 2.6 4.7 3.5

2.6 1.7 2.7 2.8

4.6 2.2 4.6 4.8

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates. a. Real GDP growth rates are first averaged over indicated sub-periods for each country and then unweighted averages are calculated across countries. b. Burundi and Congo reached the decision point prior to 2005 and are therefore classifed as pre-decision-point HIPCs for the purpose of these calculations. c. Real GDP data is unavailable for 2 of the 11 pre-decision-point HIPCs (Myanmar and Somalia).

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HIPC Initiative should raise countries’ annual per capita real GDP growth rates by about 1 percentage point.28 That estimate is broadly consistent with recent trends—annual per capita real GDP growth increased by about 2 percentage points on average for the HIPCs over the periods just before and just after reaching their respective decision points.29 The “debt overhang” literature stresses that debt relief can strengthen incentives to promote domestic investment and structural reforms. Providing more aid in the form of grants in place of concessionary loans can provide the same incentive effects (because it reduces the net present value of debt), but this may not be the case for greater aid in the form of grants allocated to reduce debt-service payments. In the absence of a credible multiyear commitment, recipient countries face uncertainty about their ability to use grants to service debt. The irrevocable nature of HIPC debt relief upon reaching the completion point provides such a commitment. Debt burdens are not the only indicator of sustainability; other factors are important, as well. Episodes of debt distress often have occurred in emerging market economies with moderate, or even low, debt.30 Moreover, adverse shocks to economic growth and the terms of trade have had a greater influence on debt burdens in low-income countries than has the amount of borrowing undertaken (IMF 2003). Various indicators of countries’ external positions can provide additional insights into debt sustainability.

Debt sustainability in some countries has been enhanced by reserve accumulation, higher exports, and higher inflows of FDI, remittances, and aid Foreign reserves enable countries to meet their debt-service obligations in the event of adverse financial or economic developments, thereby reducing of the risk of a liquidity crisis. Reserves in the 29 decision-point HIPCs as a group have increased substantially since the early 1990s, rising from 2.6 percent of GDP in 1990 to a high of 13.3 percent in 2004, before declining to 11.9 percent in 2005 (table 3.14). In 2004, reserves provided cover for more than six months of imports in one-third of the countries, whereas in 1990 none of the countries had enough reserves to cover six months of imports.

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The external position of the 29 decision-point HIPCs has also been strengthened by an expansion of trade. More open economies are better able to adjust to external shocks. Exports by the 29 countries as a group have increased from 20 percent of GDP in the early 1990s to almost 30 percent in 2005, but the figure remains well below the level in middle-income countries (estimated at 40 percent in 2005). Non-debt-creating resource flows, notably from FDI, workers’ remittances, and foreign aid, can help countries meet their external financing needs by generating a relatively stable stream of foreign exchange earnings. FDI and remittance inflows to the 29 decision-point HIPCs as a group have risen considerably since the early 1990s (table 3.14). FDI and remittance inflows provide important sources of external finance to most countries, with FDI inflows exceeding 3 percent of GDP in one-half of the countries, and remittances exceeding 3 percent of GDP in about one-third. ODA has risen from a low of 12 percent of GDP in 29 decision-point HIPCs as a group to 20.5 percent in 2003–4, which is comparable to the level received in the early 1990s.

Sizable external and fiscal imbalances remain The current-account deficit for the decision-point HIPCs as a group narrowed from 8.9 percent of GDP in 1999 to 5.1 percent in 2005. But large imbalances remain in some countries: deficits exceed 10 percent of GDP in one-third of the 29 countries. Those countries still rely heavily on external financing, making them vulnerable to external shocks. In 2005, current-account deficits widened by more than 3 percent of GDP in 6 of the 29 countries, mainly due to higher oil-import bills. The value of oil imports increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in decision-point countries in 2002 to 7.6 percent in 2005. The analysis to this point has focused mainly on external debt burdens. However, there is growing concern about fiscal imbalances and rising domestic debt burdens in some countries. Data limitations make this issue difficult to analyze. Nonetheless, the available data indicate cause for concern in some HIPCs. General government budget balances have improved over the past few years for the decision-point HIPCs as a group, reaching –3.2 percent of GDP in 2005, up from –4.3 percent in 2003. However, fiscal deficits ex-

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ceed 5 percent of GDP in 8 of the 26 countries for which data are available. Gross domestic debt issued by the public sector increased by more than 5 percent of GDP over the period 1998 to 2004 in 4 of the 11 HIPCs where data are available.31 In 2004 gross domestic debt exceeded 20 percent of GDP in 5 of the 11 HIPCs. For countries where the public debt burden is high and rising, the gains in debt sustainability provided by HIPC debt relief have been eroded by financing public debt in the domestic market.

The challenge ahead: accessing external capital, while maintaining debt sustainability

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ow-income countries, HIPCs and non-HIPCs alike, face the challenge of balancing the potential risks of external borrowing against the benefits. The debt burden is an important factor in assessing those risks, but it is not the only factor. Much of the buildup in the debt burden in the HIPCs from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s can be explained by their weak policy and institutional frameworks, low capacity for debt management, lack of export diversification, and limited fiscal revenue capacity (Sun 2004). To the extent that these factors have not improved significantly in countries that reach the HIPC completion point, debt sustainability will be an ongoing concern, despite the substantial amount of debt relief pro-

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Table 3.14 Indicators of external position of the 29 decision-point HIPCs, 1990–2005 Percent

Foreign reserves/GDP Exports/GDP Current account/GDP FDI/GDP Remittances/GDP ODA/GDP

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2.6 21.1 –4.8 0.5 1.2 21.2

6.8 23.9 –6.0 1.8 1.4 18.1

8.2 28.3 –7.1 3.6 2.0 15.3

8.9 25.3 –7.0 3.7 2.3 17.2

11.5 24.9 –7.9 4.0 2.5 16.0

12.8 25.6 –5.9 3.3 2.7 20.3

13.3 28.4 –5.4 3.1 2.8 20.7

11.9 29.5 –5.1 — — —

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

vided to the countries. Countries can enhance debt sustainability by building up foreign reserves to levels that provide adequate insurance against external shocks, and by pursuing macroeconomic policies that aim to maintain a low and stable inflation environment, along with a sound fiscal framework. Debt sustainability can also be enhanced by implementing structural reforms designed to improve institutional frameworks. This includes initiatives aimed to promote trade, FDI, and remittance inflows; advance export diversification; augment capacity for debt management; raise fiscal revenue capacity; and improve the investment climate through better governance and sound institutions. In addition to helping to maintain debt sustainability over the long term, improving policies and institutional frameworks along these lines will play a critical role in improving aid effectiveness and more generally, in helping countries attain their development objectives.

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Annex: Debt Restructuring with Official Creditors

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his appendix lists official debt restructuring agreements concluded in 2005. Restructuring of intergovernmental loans and officially guaranteed private export credits take place under the aegis of the Paris Club. These agreements are concluded between the debtor government and representatives of creditor countries. The terms of Paris Club debt treatments are recorded in an agreed-upon minute. To make the terms effective, debtor countries must sign a bilateral implementing agreement with each creditor (see box 3.3). Burundi On July 29, 2005, Burundi reached its decision point under the enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (enhanced HIPC Initiative). In accordance with the agreement reached in March 2004,32 Paris Club creditors increased debt reduction to 90 percent of the net present value of eligible external debt (Cologne terms), from 67 percent (Naples terms, or “traditional relief”), for maturities falling due between July 29, 2005, and December 31, 2006. Dominican Republic In October 2005, the Paris Club creditors reached agreement with the Dominican Republic to consolidate around $137 million of debt service payments falling due in 2005, of which $50 million related to ODA loans. The rescheduling was conducted according to “classic terms,” whereby claims are to be repaid progressively over 12 years, including a 5-year grace period, with 14 semi-annual repayments increasing from 5.5 percent of the amount rescheduled to 9.08 percent. ODA loans were to be rescheduled at interest rates at least as favorable as the original concessional rates and no higher than the appropriate market rate, and non-ODA loans

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were to be rescheduled at the appropriated market rate. Paris Club creditors also agreed to review the external financing needs of the Dominican Republic in December 2005 in connection with satisfying the conditions for the third review under the IMF Stand-by Arrangement, with a view to providing additional relief in 2006, if needed. Honduras In May 2005, the Paris Club creditors reached agreement on debt reduction for Honduras, which had reached its completion point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative on April 5, 2005. Of the $1.474 billion due to the Paris Club creditors as of March 31, 2005, $1.171 billion was treated on Cologne terms (debt reduction to 90 percent of the net present value [NPV] of eligible external debt), of which $206 million was cancelled as the Paris Club share of the effort in the enhanced HIPC Initiative, $110 million was rescheduled, and $855 million was cancelled on a bilateral basis. As a result of the agreement and additional bilateral assistance, Honduras’ debt to Paris Club creditors was reduced from $1,474 million to $413 million. Kyrgyz Republic In March 2005, Paris Club creditors agreed with the government of the Kyrgyz Republic to a reduction of its public external debt. The comprehensive debt treatment under the Evian Approach covered $555 million of debt due to the Paris Club creditors as of March 1, 2005, of which $124 million was cancelled and $431 million rescheduled. According to the agreed rescheduling terms, non-ODA commercial credits were cancelled by 50 percent ($124 million) and the remaining 50 percent will be repaid over 23 years, with a 7-year grace period at the appropriate market rate. ODA credits ($306 million) will be repaid over 40 years with a 13-year grace period at inter-

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est rates at least as favorable as the concessional rates applying to these loans. Moratorium interest due under the agreement will be capitalized at 85 percent in 2005, 75 percent in 2006, 70 percent in 2007 and 65 percent in 2008. The capitalized interest amounts will be repaid over 23 years including a 7-year grace period. Nigeria The October 2005 debt deal with Nigeria was the single largest debt relief granted to any African country, effectively providing debt cancellation estimated at $18 billion (including moratorium interest), which represents about 60 percent of its debt owed to Paris Club creditors (an overall reduction in its debt stock by an estimated $30 billion). This Paris Club agreement was made possible following the achievement by Nigeria of (1) progress in pursuing an ambitious economic reform program, which aims to accelerate growth and reduce poverty; (2) the World Bank’s reclassification of the country from “blend” to “IDA only,” paving the way for Paris Club creditors to grant debt relief along the Naples terms; and (3) negotiation of an agreement with the IMF for a non-lending Policy Support Instrument (PSI), which formalizes continuing IMF surveillance. The debt relief agreement was to be implemented in two phases in consonance with the implementation of the IMF PSI approved on October 17, 2005. In the first phase, Paris Club creditors grant a 33 percent cancellation of eligible debts after payment of arrears estimated at $6.3 billion by Nigeria. In the second phase, after approval of the first review under the PSI by the IMF and repayment of post-cutoff-date debt, Paris Club creditors would grant an additional tranche of cancellation of 34 percent on eligible debts and Nigeria will buy back the remaining eligible debt. Paris Club creditors are to be paid $12.4 billion in total, with $6.3 billion to clear arrears and $6.1 billion for the buyback. Full implementation of the Paris Club deal, scheduled to be completed in April 2006 and following the IMF first review of the PSI, would reduce Nigeria’s total outstanding external debt from $35 billion to $5 billion. Peru In June 2005, the Paris Club creditors agreed on Peru’s offer to prepay up to $2 billion of its non-ODA debt falling due between August 2005 and December 2009. Under the agreement, prepayment would be made at par and offered to

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all creditors. Participation by Paris Club members was voluntary, although a majority of the group’s creditors agreed to accept the prepayment offer. Poland In January 2005, Poland announced its intention to prepay portions of its €12.3 billion debt falling due to the Paris Club between 2005 and 2009. Although Poland had prepaid around €4.5 billion of its Paris Club debt by end-May 2005, because the prepayment was financed by sovereign bond issues, it did not contribute to any appreciable reduction of external debt. However, the deal lengthened the average maturity terms of Poland’s external debt, removing the bulge in the country’s debt repayments in 2005–9 and reducing refinancing risk. Russian Federation In May 2005, the Paris Club creditors agreed on the Russian Federation’s offer to prepay $15 billion of its debt at par. Participation by Paris Club members was voluntary, although an overwhelming majority of the group’s creditors agreed to participate. This prepayment offer translates into major interest savings for Russia and is the largest such offer by a debtor country to the Paris Club creditors. Rwanda The Paris Club creditors agreed on 100 percent cancellation of Rwanda’s debt in May 2005, following a month after Rwanda reached its completion point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative. Around $90 million in debt due to Paris Club creditors as of March 31, 2005, was treated on Cologne terms (debt reduction to 90 percent of the NPV of eligible external debt), of which $82.7 million ($61.7 million in ODA loans and $21 million in non-ODA commercial credits) was cancelled as the Paris Club share of the effort in the enhanced HIPC Initiative. A further $7.7 million in ODA loans was to be cancelled as a result of additional debt relief granted by creditors on a bilateral basis. São Tomé and Principe In September 2005, the Paris Club creditors reached agreement on the retroactive rescheduling of São Tomé and Principe’s debt service payments falling due between May 01, 2001, and December 31, 2007. The treatment was on Cologne terms (cancellation of 90 percent of the NPV of eligible external debt), with ODA credits to be repaid over 40 years with a 16 year-grace period. Zambia In May 2005, the Paris Club creditors agreed to reduce Zambia’s debt stock under the Enhanced HIPC Initiative, a month after Zambia had

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reached its completion point. Of the total $1.92 billion due to the Paris Club creditors as of March 31, 2005, $1.763 billion was treated on Cologne terms (90 percent cancellation rate). Of this latter amount, $1.403 billion in pre-cut-off date debt ($461 million in ODA loans and $942 million in non-ODA commercial credits) was cancelled as the Paris Club share of the effort in the enhanced HIPC Initiative. A further $360 million ($298 million in pre- and post-cutoff-date ODA loans and $62 million in post-cutoff-date non-ODA commercial credits) was to be cancelled on a bilateral basis. As a result of the agreement and additional bilateral assistance, Zambia’s debt to Paris Club creditors was reduced from $1.92 billion to $124 million. Paris Club creditors also agreed to reschedule 50 percent of the debt service payments due in 2005, 2006, and 2007 on the debt remaining due after additional bilateral cancellation.

Debt treatment for countries affected by the tsunami Following meetings in January and March 2005, Paris Club creditors reviewed the debt treatment of the tsunami-affected countries and agreed not to expect any debt payments on eligible sovereign claims from these countries until December 31, 2005. Two countries, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, took up the offer. According to the terms of treatment set in May 2005, these two countries were to repay the deferred debt over 5 years with 2-year grace periods. Under treatment were 100 percent of the amounts of principal and interest due between January 1, 2005 and December 1, 2005 on loans from Paris Club creditors having an original maturity of more than one year. For Indonesia, the total amount treated was $2.704 billion, including $2.056 billion of principal and interest on ODA loans and $648 million of nonODA credits. For Sri Lanka, the total amount treated was around $227 million, including $213 million of principal and interest on ODA loans and 15 million of non-ODA credits.

Notes 1. The definition of emergency and distress relief grants was modified in 2005 to included reconstruction grants. The modification was not applied to previous years. The amount of reconstruction grants reported by donors in 2005 will not be known until the OECD DAC reports the components of ODA in December 2006.

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2. OECD DAC data on the allocation of ODA across income classifications and regions in 2005 will not be available until December 2006. The calculations refer to the portion of ODA that is allocated across income classifications and regions. In 2000–4, 26 percent of ODA was not allocated across income classifications and 17 percent was not allocated across regions, on average. 3. The United Nations’ LDC income classification overlaps the World Bank’s Sub-Saharan Africa region, but not completely—32 of the 49 LDCs are in the Sub-Saharan Africa region; 32 of the 43 low-income countries in the SubSaharan Africa region are LDCs. 4. As measured by the WTO/OECD-DAC Trade Capacity Building Database. 5. The collective interim target of 0.56 percent in 2010 entails individual targets of 0.51 percent for the 15 “original” EU countries, along with 0.17 percent targets for the 10 countries that joined the European Union in 2004. 6. Projections of ODA based on donor commitments are reported by OECD (2006, table 1.1). 7. See World Bank (2004, chapter 11) for a discussion of the difficulties entailed in estimating the amount of aid required to finance the MDGs. 8. See World Bank (2006, pp. 77–8) for a detailed discussion of innovative financing mechanisms. 9. See IMF (2005a, annex 2, and 2005b) and Isard and others (2006) for a survey of recent studies. 10. Documented in IMF (2005b). 11. See IMF (2005b) for an analysis of whether recent large aid surges in five African countries were “spent” or “absorbed.” 12. All but 4 of the 29 HIPCs that have reached the decision point are in Sub-Saharan Africa. 13. The Republic of the Congo only reached the decision point in March 2006 and hence did not receive any debt service reduction from the HIPC initiative over the period 2000–5. 14. The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gineau-Bissau are both excluded from the calculations underlying figures 3.6 and 3.7 because they did not service their debt payments in 2000–3. 15. To qualify for “traditional debt relief” provided by the Paris Club, countries must generally have a Poverty Reduction and Grant Facility (PRGF) program with the IMF. 16. Commercial creditors account for only 2 percent of debt relief due under the HIPC Initiative. 17. See IMF and World Bank (2005, section III). 18. See IEG (2006: 8–9) for a more detailed discussion of creditors’ commitments to HIPC debt relief. 19. World Bank and IMF (2005: 18–20). 20. Mauritania has reached the completion point under the HIPC Initiative but has not yet qualified for debt relief under the MDRI, pending implementation of key public expenditure management reforms. The calculations reported in the text assume that Mauritania will qualify by the end of 2006. 21. The calculations underlying figure 3.8 assume that countries will reach their respective completion points on the dates listed in World Bank 2006b (annex 2.3). 22. The baseline for refinancing IDA is specified in SDRs with an inflation adjustment factor based on a three-

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year moving average, so the U.S. dollar equivalent will vary over time. 23. The higher debt burdens in Guyana, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras largely represent debt owed to the Inter-American Development Bank, which is not forgiven under the MDRI. 24. Burundi and the Republic of Congo are excluded from these calculations because they reached the decision point after 2004. Net official lending in figure 3.12 includes concessional and non-concessional loans from official creditors, whereas all bilateral loans discussed in the context of ODA (figure 3.2) are concessional (by definition). 25. Prior to 2002, the DRC was in arrears with multilateral institutions and hence did not receive any concessional loans from official sources. In 2002 the DRC received $607 million in net concessional lending from official sources, an amount equal to 11 percent of GDP. 26. Net private debt inflows are comprised of net changes in public and publicly guaranteed debt, private nonguaranteed debt, commercial bank loans and other private credit. 27. See Clements and others (2003) and Pattillo and others (2004) for recent reviews of the theoretical and empirical literature on “debt overhang.” 28. The empirical results reported by Clements and others (2003) also imply that the impact on growth could be stronger if some of the debt-service reduction were allocated to public investment. For instance, annual per capita GDP growth would be augmented by an additional 0.5 percentage point if half of HIPC debt relief were allocated to public investment. 29. This result is strongly influenced by large increases in just a few countries, notably Chad, where real GDP per capita increased from an average rate of –0.9 percent over the period 1991–2000 to 13.6 percent in 2001–04. The median increase is only 1.5 percentage points. 30. This is documented by Reinhart, Rogoff, and Savastano (2003), who coined the term “debt intolerance.” They examined 33 debt-distress episodes in emerging market economies over the period 1970–2001. Of these, four involved countries with ratios of external debt to GDP of less than 40 percent; another seven involved ratios of less than 50 percent. 31. Calculations are based on World Bank staff estimates of gross general government debt. 32. The March 2004 agreement treated $85 million in arrears in principal and interest as of December 31, 2003 and of maturities in principal and interest falling due from January 1, 2004 to December 31, 2006. The rescheduling was on Naples terms (67 percent NPV debt reduction of eligible external debt), with non-ODA credits cancelled by 67 percent (around $4.4 billion) and the remainder rescheduled over 23 years with a 6-year grace period, at market interest rates, and ODA credits rescheduled over 40 years with a 16year grace period.

References Bourguignon, François, and Mark Sundberg. 2006a. “Constraints to Achieving the MDGs with Scaled-Up Aid”

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DESA Working Paper ST/ESA/2006/DWP/15, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. March. http://www.un.org/esa/desa/ papers/2006/wp15_2006.pdf Bourguignon, François, and Mark Sundberg. 2006b. “Absorptive Capacity and Achieving the MDGs.” Unpublished paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. March. Clements, Benedict, Rina Bhattacharya and Toan Quoc Nguyen. 2003. “External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries” IMF Working Paper 03/249, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2006. “Debt Relief for the Poorest: An Evaluation Update of the HIPC Initiative.” World Bank, Washington, DC. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2003. “Fund Assistance for Countries Facing Exogenous Shocks.” Policy Development and Review Department, Washington, DC. August. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/ sustain/2003/080803.htm. ———. 2005a. The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa—A Checklist for Practitioners. SM/05/179. Washington, DC: IMF. www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/afr/aid/2006/eng/index.htm. ———. 2005b. “The Macroeconomics of Managing Increased Aid Flows—Experiences of Low-Income Countries and Policy Implications.” SM/05/306, Policy Development and Review Department, Washington, DC. August. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/ 2005/080805a.pdf IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank. 2004. “Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries: Further Considerations on an Operational Framework and Policy Implications.” September. http://www.imf .org/external/np/pdr/sustain/2004/091004.htm. ———. 2005. “Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative—Status of Implementation.” August. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDEBTDEPT/Re sources/081905.pdf Isard, Peter, Leslie Lipschitz, Alexandros Mourouras, and Boriana Yontcheva, eds. 2006. The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Washington, DC: IMF. OECD. 2006. 2005 Development Cooperation Report. Paris: OECD. Pattillo, Catherine, Hélène Poirson, and Luca Ricci. 2004. “What Are the Channels through Which External Debt Affects Growth?” Working Paper 04/14, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Reinhart, Carmen, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano. 2003. “Debt Intolerance.” Brookings Papers of Economic Activity 1: 1–74. Sun, Yan. 2004. “External Debt Sustainability in HIPC Completion Point Countries.” Working Paper 04/160, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Sundberg, Mark, and Hans Lofgren. 2006. “Absorptive Capacity and Achieving the MDGs: The Case of Ethiopia.” In The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid: Opportunities and Pitfalls, ed. Peter Isard, Leslie Lipschitz, Alexandros Mourouras, and Boriana Yontcheva. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

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UN Millennium Project. 2005. Investing in Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Overview. http://www.unmillenniumproject .org/reports/index.htm. World Bank. 2005. Global Economic Prospects 2006. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2004. Global Monitoring Report 2004. Washington, DC: World Bank.

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World Bank. 2006a. Global Monitoring Report 2006. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2006b. “IDA’s Implementation of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative.” Resource Mobilization Department, Washington, DC. March.

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4 Financial Integration among Developing Countries

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eveloping countries have become important sources of lending and investment to other developing countries. In years past, most of the capital exported from developing countries found its way to industrial countries, usually to help wealthy individuals safeguard their assets. During the past decade, however, developing countries have become a significant source of foreign direct investment (FDI), bank lending, and even official development assistance (ODA) for other developing countries. This expansion in South–South capital flows reflects developing countries’ increasing integration into global financial markets. As developing countries’ incomes rise and their banks and firms become increasingly sophisticated, it is natural that they should become more important sources of foreign lending and investment and that a portion of these flows should go to other developing countries. At the same time, South–South capital flows may have implications for developing-country recipients that differ from the implications of capital flows coming from rich countries. The purpose of this chapter is to present data on this growing trend and to evaluate its implications for development. The principal issues are (i) the forces that have propelled South–South financial integration, and (ii) the differences between South–South interactions and financial integration between developing and high-income countries. The main messages are: •

Capital flows among developing countries increased rapidly over the past 10 years, driven by the technological innovations that support globalization generally, rising incomes in developing countries, and increasingly open policies toward trade and financial markets. South–South finan-

•

•

•

cial integration has progressed more rapidly than North–South integration, as South–South trade has expanded more rapidly than NorthSouth trade (capital flows often follow trade) and developing countries have eased constraints on outward investment. Developing-country multinationals enjoy some advantages over industrial-country firms when investing in developing countries because of their greater familiarity with technology and business practices suitable for developing-country markets. However, developing-country multinationals also face greater impediments in their home countries than do industrial-country multinationals. Impediments may take the form of bureaucratic constraints on outward investment, other financial constraints, and a paucity of institutional support and business services. South–South capital has helped to sustain FDI flows in developing countries even as FDI from industrial countries has declined. It has made more capital available to low-income countries, because developing-country investors are often more willing to handle the special risks encountered in poor countries. In some cases, South–South investment may also confer benefits because firms in receiving countries may find it easier to absorb technology from a developing-country investor than from an industrial-country investor, as developing-country investors are likely to rely on technology appropriate for a developing-country setting. Most South–South capital flows occur within the same geographic region, both because they follow trade (and a large share of trade is regional) and because proximity, common

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language, and cultural and ethnic ties reduce the risks of lending and investment. Developing-country banks are more likely than industrial-country banks to invest in small developing countries with weak institutions. Especially in low-income countries, the performance of foreign banks from developing countries (both in terms of asset quality and efficiency) does not differ from that of foreign banks from rich countries, suggesting that developing-country banks do not pose an additional risk to vulnerable low-income countries because of poor management or weak finances. Initiatives to promote the integration of developing countries’ stock exchanges have made little progress, and many developingcountry capital markets remain more integrated with major international financial markets than with other developing-country markets. Nevertheless, there are recent signs of change, with fewer new issues on U.S. exchanges, in particular, and increased local issuance. Many exchanges may benefit from closer South–South cooperation, including by encouraging cross-border listings and investment, and information/technology sharing.

The growth of South–South capital flows

country stock markets have shown little integration in the form of cross-border listings or establishment of regional stock exchanges.3 The growing financial integration of developing countries is driven by the same forces that are increasing integration between developing and high-income countries. Technological advances have reduced the costs of transport and communications, facilitating greater cross-border integration and encouraging the growth of cross-border production networks that involve expanded trade and financial transactions. Income growth has been accompanied by increased sophistication in financial systems, facilitating outward investment. Income growth also is associated with more diverse consumption choices, stimulating international trade. In turn, the rise in international trade has provoked greater cross-border financial transactions. The very large differences in wage levels and capital intensity of production within the developing world also have stimulated South–South flows. The rise in capital flows among developing countries also reflects the increased importance of developing countries in the global economy. The developing world’s share of global GDP rose modestly from about 18 percent in 1990 to 20 percent in 2004, but its share in international trade grew more quickly—from 15 percent in 1991 to 26 percent in 2004. The growing importance of some of the larger developing countries is reflected in their increasingly prominent role in global economic negotiations, particularly within

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Figure 4.1 South–South capital flows by type, 2005

•

•

inancial transactions among developing countries increased substantially in the past decade (see annex 1).1 South–South FDI, for example, increased from $14 billion in 1995 to $47 billion in 2003. The share of South–South flows in total FDI to developing countries rose from 16 percent in 1995 to 36 percent in 2003, a higher share than that of South–South exports in developing countries’ total trade and of South–South remittances in their total remittance receipts (figure 4.1).2 Syndicated loans grew from $0.7 billion in 1985 to $6.2 billion in 2005. The share of South–South flows in total cross-border syndicated lending was 3 percent in 1985, during the Latin American debt crisis, when syndicated loans to Latin America and other major debtors plummeted. That share fell to 1 percent in 1995, with the recovery from the debt crisis, and then rose to 3.4 percent in 2005. By contrast with FDI and bank lending, developing-

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% of total flows to developing countries 100 90

South–South North–South

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Export revenues

Remittances

Syndicated Loans

FDI

Sources: UN Comtrade database; World Bank staff estimates. Note: Data are for 2005, except for FDI (2003).

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the World Trade Organization (WTO). WTO’s Ministerial Meeting in Cancun in 2003 showed that coalitions of developing countries (notably the G-20, but also the G-90 group of the poorest countries4), if they maintained solidarity, could play a major role in determining the outcome of

Box 4.1

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negotiations on issues of concern to them (Narlikar and Tussie 2004). The emergence of the G-20 has been characterized as moving the WTO from a group dominated by the Quad (Canada, the European Union, Japan, and the United States) to a multipolar environment (Amorim

Developing countries as aid donors

he Millennium Development Goals call for a global partnership for development. Historically, that partnership has been understood as a matter of North–South cooperation, but that interpretation fails to acknowledge the growing role of developing countries as sources of official development assistance (ODA). In recent years, however, recognition of the importance of South–South cooperation has come from several quarters—among them the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Union, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Brazil, Chile, China, India, South Africa, and Thailand are among the developing countries that now provide aid to others in the developing world. There is evidence that the resources involved in South–South aid initiatives may be increasing. China recently announced an increase in its assistance to developing countries over the next three years, including $10 billion dollars in concessional loans and preferential export credits. In February 2006, Turkey became a member of the OECD Development Centre, demonstrating its commitment to providing development assistance to developing countries. Developing countries often provide aid through partnerships with traditional donors and international institutions (so-called triangular cooperation). For example, in cooperation with Britain’s Department for International Development (DFID) and the U.N. Aids Program, the government of Brazil launched the International Centre for Horizontal Technical Cooperation to fight HIV/AIDS in Latin American countries. The center has allowed Brazil, which already has the region’s best record in fighting HIV/AIDS, to strengthen its capacity to provide AIDS-related technical assistance to other Latin American countries. Data on the magnitude of South-South development assistance are scarce, although initiatives to improve collection are underway.a DAC, the South-South Unit of the UNDP, and the World Bank have formed a partnership to collect information about South-South aid and provide a platform for developing countries to share their experiences. Data from the World Bank Debtor Reporting System indicate that concessional loans from developing countries have shown no clear trend over the past decade, but tend to

be dominated by disbursements from just a few countries and show large variability from year to year because of substantial, one-time loans. China accounted for 58 percent of concessional lending from developing countries from 1994 to 2004, and Turkey (due to one disbursement in 1996), the Russian Federation, and Mauritius (due to one disbursement in 2004) for another 30 percent. Fifteen (mostly lowincome) countries received some 70 percent of South–South concessional loans during 1994–2004. Sub-Saharan Africa received the greatest amount of South-South concessional loans (47.5 percent), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (26.5 percent) and Europe and Central Asia (19.1 percent). In 2004 South–South concessional loans made up just 2 percent of all concessional lending to developing countries. Data on grants are not available. Like other South–South flows, South–South concessional loans are, once we exclude disbursements by China, mostly intraregional (78 percent). Case studies confirm the strong intraregional pattern of South–South development assistance. For example, 90 percent of Thailand’s ODA supports infrastructure projects in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and the Maldives (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Thailand), and 73 percent of India’s non-plan grants and loans from 1997–2004 went to neighboring countries (Ministry of Finance of India). Most emerging donors appear to have a special interest in providing development assistance to African countries. Long a donor in Africa, China, since 2000, has formalized its relationship with the continent through the Forum for China-African Cooperation. Brazilian cooperation with Africa encompasses many areas, including agriculture, infrastructure, trade, and public administration. The country has written off more than $1 billion in debts of African countries. The Russian Federation, too, has written off a substantial amount of African debt, partly under the HIPC initiative. It is studying the possibility of a full HIPC debt write-off for loans not falling under ODA. a. DAC provides data on official development assistance for its members and for some non-DAC donors. These include high-income donors, such as Saudi Arabia, where development assistance has accounted for more than 1.3 percent of GDP over the past five years, and some developing-country donors, mostly in Eastern Europe. Since the most prominent emerging donors are not included in the DAC database, however, the numbers do not provide an accurate picture of South–South aid.

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2005). More than any previous round of trade negotiations, the Doha Round has been shaped by the actions and positions of developing countries (Zedillo, Messerlin, and Neilson 2005). Another indication of their increasing importance is that a few developing countries have become sources of official development assistance (box 4.1). South–South financial integration has been given a boost by the rapid opening of developing economies. About half of 77 developing countries rated on a leading index of openness to trade showed some improvement from 1995 to 2005, whereas only 5 showed deterioration (figure 4.2). The rest were unchanged.5 By contrast, nearly all high-income countries showed no major change in their trade policies over this period, because they already were relatively open economies: the average trade index of high-income economies was more than two points better (on a 1-to-5 scale) than that of developing countries.6 Moreover, South–South trade expanded more quickly than North–South (box 4.2). Because capital flows often follow trade, this has meant more rapid South–South financial integration as well. Similarly, a majority of 76 rated developing countries became more open to foreign investment over the past 10 years, while only 8 instituted more restrictive policies. In part this reflects an easing of constraints on outward investment, leading to increased South–South capital flows. The difference Figure 4.2 Growing openness of developing countries to trade and capital flows, 1995–2005

between high-income and developing countries is less stark for foreign investment than for trade, as high-income countries in 1995 were only slightly more open than developing countries, and 9 of the 21 rated high-income countries adopted more open regimes over the past 10 years. However, the major sources of outward investment and lending from high-income countries, such as the United States and Germany, already had relatively open regimes in the early 1990s, so their outward capital flows did not receive any further impetus from policies becoming more open. Another spur to South–South capital flows has been the rise of regional trade agreements (RTAs) among developing countries. RTAs have mushroomed: since 1990, their number rose from 50 to nearly 230.7 Activity has been particularly intense in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. •

•

•

In Latin America, Mexico and Chile have concluded a series of agreements since the launch of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. In Africa, the countries of eastern and southern Africa established a common market in 1993; the East African Community was formed in the mid-1990s; and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) signed a trade cooperation protocol in 1996. In Asia since 2000, India has made agreements with the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and Thailand; China has concluded bilateral trade accords with the countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); and the countries of South Asia reached a free trade agreement in 2004.

It is unclear whether such agreements have made a major contribution to South–South trade and capital flows—or simply reflect their increase.

Foreign direct investment in the developing world South–South FDI is increasing Source: Heritage Foundation. Note: Number of countries rated more open, unchanged, or less open on Heritage Foundation index of openness for period 1995–2005.

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FDI flows from developing countries to other developing countries increased from an estimated $14 billion in 1995 to $47 billion in 2003 (table 4.1). Increased South–South flows have provided

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Box 4.2

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South–South FDI and trade

T

rade and FDI flows are closely linked (Aizenman and Noy 2005; Albuquerque, Loayza, and Serven 2005; Swenson 2004). At times FDI is a substitute for trade, as when the investment is designed to serve the host market while reducing transport costs or circumventing tariff barriers. However, as trade barriers have come down and the importance of global production networks has risen, FDI and trade have become increasingly complementary (World Bank 2005a). Trade flows also can facilitate FDI by increasing investors’ access to information (Portes and Rey 2005). South–South trade grew rapidly over the past decade, reaching $562 billion in 2004 compared to $222 billion in 1995. From 2000 to 2004, South–South trade grew at an annual rate of 17.6 percent, faster than South–North and North–South exports (12.6 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively). South–South trade made up 26 percent of developing countries’ exports in 2004. Most South–South trade occurs within the same region, although cross-regional trade has also been growing rapidly. In 2004, for example, China was the fourthlargest export destination for Argentina and Brazil. The rapid growth in South–South trade is linked to high growth rates in developing countries, substantial reductions in tariff barriers, and falling transport costs.

partial compensation for the decline in FDI flows from high-income countries—from $130 billion in 1999 to $82 billion in 2003. More than 50 developing countries have reported FDI outflows over the past decade, although the data are notoriously understated (World Bank 2004). It is clear that most developing-country FDI comes from the same middle-income countries that account for the lion’s share of developing-country economic activity. The 10 countries that accounted for 73 percent of FDI inflows from 2000 to 2004 also were the source of 87 percent of the total outflows (both to developed and developing countries) during the same period. The expansion of FDI outflows has been driven by developing countries’ increasing openness to capital and trade, and by their increasing participation in international production networks. Because of increased globalization of economic activities, developing-country companies face growing competition in sales and in access to resources and

The impact of increased investment on South–South trade is hard to measure. However, the surge in trade in raw materials (126 percent from 1995 to 2003) was in line with increasing South–South FDI flows in extractive sectors (see figure). Also, the growth in trade in intermediate goods (91 percent) and capital goods (213 percent) reflects the increased integration of production networks among developing countries, which is stimulated both by North–South and South–South investments. Composition of South–South exports, 1995 and 2003 $ billions 140 120 100

1995 2003

80 60 40 20 0 Raw materials

Intermediate goods

Consumer goods

Capital goods

Source: UN Comtrade database.

Table 4.1 South–South FDI as a share of global FDI, 1999–2003 $ billions

Total inflows (1) from high-income OECD (2) from high-income non-OECD (3) South–South FDI (1)-(2)-(3) South–South FDI (percent)

1995

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003e

90.3 48.1 28.2 14.0 15.5

163.5 95.4 35.0 33.1 20.2

154.7 93.7 22.7 38.3 24.8

159.3 84.8 24.8 49.7 31.2

135.3 55.1 27.2 53.0 39.2

129.6 59.4 22.8 47.4 36.6

Source: World Bank staff estimates. Note: The South–South estimates are based on 35 countries that account for 85 percent of total FDI flows to developing countries. The estimates are based on the World Bank’s classification of developing countries. e = estimate.

strategic assets. As many developing-country governments have eased their policies toward capital outflows, their companies, like industrial-country multinationals, have expanded their operations abroad. South–South FDI flows have also increased in response to the significant rise in South–South trade.

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Most South–South FDI goes to countries in the same region Many expanding developing-country firms tend to invest regionally before taking on the rest of the world because of familiarity gained through trade or ethnic and cultural ties. The regional agreements that began to proliferate in the mid-1990s (World Bank 2005b) also have encouraged intraregional trade and investments. For example, 75 percent of the outward investments of Hungarian firms were within Europe (Elteto and Katalin 2003 and table 4.2); almost 40 percent of Russian firms’ investments abroad have been in Europe and Central Asia (Vahtra and Liuhto 2004); and the Russian Federation accounts for one-third of Turkey’s recent FDI outflows. Encouraged by cooperation arrangements, ASEAN countries have been the top destination for Thai companies (Mathews 2005). South African investments in other developing countries are largely in the southern part of Africa (Goldstein 2003). Following trade liberalization in Latin America, multinationals from Argentina, Brazil, and Chile expanded their regional operations (Chudnovsky and Lopez 2000). Nevertheless, some developing-country multinationals are venturing beyond their region. For example, in 2004 about half of China’s outward FDI went to natural resources projects in Latin America; Malaysia has emerged as a significant new source of FDI in South Africa (Padayachee and Valodia 1999); and Brazil has considerable investments in Angola and Nigeria (Goldstein 2003).

South–South FDI is concentrated in services and extractive industries While data on the sectoral composition of SouthSouth FDI are not available, a substantial amount of South-South FDI is known to be in services (inTable 4.2 Regional FDI by multinationals from selected countries Share of total investment occurring within region Regional (South–South)

China India Hungary Thailand Turkey Russian Fed. Source: Goldstein (forthcoming).

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20.7 25.4 75.1 58.8 32.0 37.0

frastructure, in particular) and the extractive industries, as shown by data on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and privatization transactions (annex 2). South–South FDI in services increased over the last decade, in tandem with the global surge in services sector FDI and the liberalization of the services sector in many developing countries.8 Developing economies attracted substantial FDI flows from both high-income and other developing countries through the privatization of stateowned assets. Developing-country firms enjoy some advantages in services sector FDI, because services often require proximity between producers and consumers, and often favor cultural and ethnic familiarity.9 Moreover, developing-country firms can take advantage of their experience in managing the regulatory process (De Sol 2005; Lisitsyn and others 2005) and create regional networks. Nevertheless, FDI from high-income countries is also highly concentrated in the services sector. The significant rise of South–South FDI in the infrastructure sector, which began in the late 1990s, often was achieved through partnerships between developing- and industrial-country firms. This expansion by northern investors slowed following stock market declines in the industrial countries and in response to problems of corporate governance in some companies and poor regulation in many developing countries. But developing-country firms continued their expansion through buyouts of the assets of their northern partners, privatization and acquisitions deals, and licenses (annex 2).10 Between 1998 and 2003, developing countries received almost $160 billion in foreign investment in infrastructure, while developing-country firms invested more than $30 billion in developing-country infrastructure projects. These data represent commitments for selected projects, and thus the totals cannot be compared to the net-flows data usually shown for FDI (see World Bank 2005a for details). Nevertheless, the commitments data do show that a very significant proportion of FDI flows to developing countries (from both the North and the South) is devoted to infrastructure. South–South flows were greatest in telecommunications and, geographically, in Africa (figure 4.3). Almost 30 percent of FDI in developing countries’ telecommunications during 1998–2003 came from southern telecommunications companies, more than 85 percent of it intraregional. Financial

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and equity investors from the South—such as investment banks, private equity funds, and mutual funds—also have become direct investors in the sector, in addition to participating through South–South cross-border lending and syndicated loans, as discussed in detail later in the chapter (World Bank 2006). Developing-country multinationals also invest in noninfrastructure services, taking advantage of brand-name recognition, physical proximity, regional distribution networks, taste similarities, and advantages offered by bilateral arrangements. Considerable South–South investment has occurred in banking, as we shall see later in this chapter. Other examples include the growing number of supermarket chains, food companies, pharmaceutical firms, hospitals, and airline carriers from developing countries.11 In some cases, northern investors undertake investments in developing countries through their subsidiaries in another developing country—for example, Wal-Mex, WalMart’s joint venture with a Mexican company. Developing-country firms (mainly in Asia) have made a small but increasing number of investments in research and development (R&D) in other developing countries (UNCTAD 2005a). China and India are among the largest recipients of R&D-related investments from developing countries, with investment from one another and from Malaysia and Thailand.12 The extractive sector (particularly oil and gas) also attracts increasingly large amounts of South–South FDI, mostly through state-owned companies (table 4.3). In recent years, high-

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Figure 4.3 South–South FDI in infrastructure and by region, 1998–2003 By sector

By region

% of total foreign investment

% of total foreign investment

30 25 20 15 10 5 0

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Telecom Transport Energy

Water

a an ific sia ric be ac lA Af b P a i r r h n & rt nt ra Ca ia No Ce ha & As & & a Sa t t c i s e s b p er Ea Ea ro Su Am Eu dle in d t i M La

a ric Af

h ut So

ia As

Source: World Bank (2005c).

growth economies, such as China and India, have acquired oil-and-gas assets or licenses in other developing countries (annex 2). Developing-country companies also are investing in exploration projects. For example, Petronas (Malaysia), which has strong technical competencies in deep-water exploration, has invested in exploration and production projects in more than 20 developing countries (Goldstein forthcoming). Countries that are large oil-and-gas producers, such as República Bolivariana de Venezuela, invest in other developing countries as they integrate their downstream operations such as refining, distribution, and retailing. South–South FDI in the nonoil mining sector is also increasing. The resource-rich African region has attracted the interest of companies from China, India, South Africa, and other developing countries.13 Chinese investments in nonoil mining

Table 4.3 Selected southern multinationals in the oil-and-gas sector, 2004 Total assets in 2004 ($ billions)

Corporation (home country)

Ownership

CNPC (China)

State

Indian Oil Corp. Lukoil (Russian Federation) PDVSA (R. B. de Venezuela)

State Private State

10.9 29.8 13.4

PEMEX (Mexico) Petrobras (Brazil) Petro China (China) Petronas (Malaysia)

State State State State

84.1 19.4 58.8 53.5

Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia)

State

110.6

Areas of activity

Canada, Ecuador, Kazakhstan, Mauritania, Myanmar, Sudan, R. B. de Venezuela Islamic Rep. of Iran, Libya Iraq, Romania, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Canada, Uzbekistan Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Chile, Germany, Paraguay, United States (Citgo) Argentina Libya, Mexico, Nigeria, Tanzania Nigeria, Sudan, R. B. de Venezuela Cambodia, Chad, Islamic Rep. of Iran, Myanmar, Sudan, Turkmenistan Canada, China, United States

Sources: UNCTAD, ECLAC, and Oil & Gas Journal Special Report 2001, company annual reports, company Web sites.

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projects have been growing in Latin America, and several Russian companies have investments in Central Asia and the Middle East (Vahtra and Liuhto 2004).14 Recent bilateral and regional initiatives among developing countries are centered on cooperation in resource-seeking projects, including a proposal to create a regional state-owned energy company in Latin America; joint-venture projects involving India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand; China’s agreements with Argentina and Brazil to cooperate in mining, oil, and infrastructure projects (UNCTAD 2005b); and partnerships between China and India for the acquisition of energy assets. Manufacturing also receives considerable South–South FDI flows, although projects tend to be smaller than the large privatization and M&A deals in services and the extractive industries. Developing-country multinationals have invested in efficiency-seeking activities abroad following erosion in their competitiveness, at home and in export markets, because of currency appreciation, increased labor costs, or other causes (Mirza 2000). In many middle-income countries, higher living standards are reflected in increased labor costs.15 Developing-country manufacturing firms also invest abroad to sell into the target markets or to access other markets, sometimes through special arrangements. Examples include the investments in India and Thailand of Chinese white goods producer Haier, and the plants in China, Egypt, India, and Ethiopia of Russian automobile manufacturer UralAZ plants (Vahtra and Liuhto 2004). Special arrangements play an important role in attracting South–South FDI to low-income countries. Chinese, Indian, Malaysian, and Sri Lankan textile companies have investments in Africa to export garments to U.S. and European markets through free trade agreements. Some developing-country firms are investing in the manufacture of generic drugs in Africa because WTO provides that patents may be broken in cases of national emergency. A few Indian and Chinese companies are introducing anti-malarial and AIDS drugs under such arrangements (Goldstein and others 2006).16 In some cases, FDI from high-income countries has facilitated South–South flows in the manufacturing sector. For example, Mexican Bimbo, a food producer, has invested abroad since becoming McDonalds’ exclusive supplier in Latin America and more recently in Europe.

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State-owned and small and medium enterprises are investing abroad State-owned enterprises (SOE) in extractive industries and infrastructure are a considerable source of South–South FDI flows.17 The role of SOEs in overseas investments is significant in China, where 43 percent of outward FDI stock in 2003 was held by SOEs (Giroud 2005). This indicates that a considerable portion of South–South FDI may be driven not only by economic but also by political and strategic factors.18 SOEs usually have an advantage over privately owned firms, since they enjoy better financing terms when funded by stateowned banks. In some cases, governments negotiate packages of investment deals that may give additional bargaining power to SOEs.19 Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) also provide a significant amount of investment in other developing countries.20 In India, for example, SMEs accounted for 26 percent of overseas projects (6.7 percent of the value) in manufacturing and 41.1 percent (47.1 percent of the value) in the software industry (Pradhan 2005). Almost three-fourths of companies investing abroad in Poland and Estonia, and about onethird in the Czech Republic and in Hungary, are SMEs (Sevtlicic and Rojec 2003).

Southern multinationals are supported by government incentives In addition to easing restrictions on capital outflows, some developing-country governments have provided fiscal and other incentives for outward investment, particularly South–South FDI. China’s Export-Import Bank, for example, provides loans for investments in resource development and infrastructure, as well as for projects that facilitate trade. If the investment is in an aid-receiving country, firms can receive preferential loans under Chinese aid programs or projects (UNCTAD 2005b). Malaysia supports special deals for FDI outflows to countries such as India, the Philippines, Tanzania, and Vietnam (Mirza 2000). The Thai government promotes Thai firms’ involvement in infrastructure projects in selected developing countries in the region (UNCTAD 2005b). Some regional arrangements, such as SADC, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, and the Andean Community offer various incentives for outward investment within the region, including lower tax and tariff rates and easier profit repatriation. Some

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members of the regions maintain bilateral investment agreements and double-taxation treaties. Whether these incentives encourage or direct FDI outflows, and at what fiscal cost, is unclear. UNCTAD (1998) found that incentives had a positive, but minimal, effect. On the other hand, Hallward-Dreimeier (2003), using only OECD countries, and Tobin and Rose-Ackerman (2005), using a larger sample of countries, found that incentives can further increase FDI flows in countries only where the environment for FDI is already strong. Banga (2003) shows that India’s fiscal incentives and lower tariff rates attracted investors from developing countries only; the removal of restrictions was necessary to attract investments from developed countries. Interviews with Malaysian investors suggest that tax and fiscal incentives were not important (UNCTAD 2005a). In some cases, incentives simply generate so-called round-tripping (capital outflows to finance investment back in the home country). For example, India’s advantageous tax treaty with Mauritius encourages many Indian investors to incorporate in Mauritius in order to benefit from this tax treatment (Shah and Patnaik 2005).

Developing-country multinationals may enjoy some advantages over industrial-country firms when investing in developing countries Compared to their northern counterparts, developing-country multinationals may enjoy some advantages when investing in developing countries. Companies with a significant regional presence often benefit from well-established distribution networks. Because of their experience in their home markets, they are often in a position to use locally available inputs more efficiently. And some developing-country firms are more familiar than northern firms with lower-cost production processes that are appropriate for developing-country markets. For example, India’s Tata Group produces a car that is significantly less expensive than those of the major automobile companies.21 While the car lacks some of the qualities desired by industrial-country consumers, it has found a ready market in India and several other developing countries. Finally, developing-country firms may also use technologies that are better suited to conditions in developing countries. For example, in Vietnam, TVs made by China’s TCL are the most popular brand, as their powerful color TV receivers provide clear reception even in remote areas (Yi 2004).

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Geographical proximity and cultural similarities can make coordination of foreign operations more effective (IMF–World Bank 2005; UNCTAD 2005b). Developing-country firms may have a comparative advantage over companies from developed countries in doing business in challenging economic and political conditions because of their experience in their home economies (Claessens and Van Horen 2006). This sort of advantage brought higher rates of return for northern investors that partnered with Chilean companies to invest in Latin America than for those that invested alone (De Sol 2005). The relative success in Uganda of MTN (the South African telecommunications company), compared with its competitors from developed countries, was traceable to its inhouse expertise in managing pertinent economic and political risks (Goldstein 2003). Developing-country firms may also be more willing to assume the risks of postconflict and other politically difficult situations (Sull and Escobari 2004). For example, Chinese companies (not all of them SOEs) are the only foreigners that have invested in Sierra Leone since the end of the civil war. Egypt’s Orascam is the only foreign telecom company operating in Iraq (EIU 2005).

Institutional, financial, and operational impediments constrain FDI from developing countries Despite these advantages, developing-country firms face institutional procedures, financial restrictions, and operational problems in their home countries that can make it difficult for them to invest abroad. Institutional procedures. Many developing countries still have various levels of capital controls, and firms may be subject to regulatory burdens to obtain access to foreign exchange. For example, in addition to several capital-control procedures, China’s regulations require its multinationals (state-owned or private) to submit a certificate of establishment of the firm in China, contracts and agreements relating to the overseas project, various elements of a project feasibility study, assessments of the project made by the Chinese embassy in the host country, and audited financial reports and bank statements—all before proceeding with an overseas investment (FIAS 2005). Such requirements have increased costs and in some cases prevented SMEs from investing

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abroad, while some larger firms have used offshore platforms for their foreign investments. For example, many Chinese companies use their Hong Kong affiliates as a base from which to expand overseas (UNCTAD 2003). Developing countries often lack the institutional infrastructure needed to provide foreign investors with the support services that their counterparts in developed countries take for granted. Access to knowledgeable consulting firms, business associations, banks, and other sources of information about overseas markets and practices is more difficult to obtain in most parts of the developing world. Unlike in developed economies, services that promote outward investment are nonexistent or in their infancy in most developing countries. These handicaps have affected the development and operations of overseas projects, particularly for companies relatively new to outward FDI. Financial restrictions. Developing-country firms, particularly SMEs, face more severe financial constraints than do their industrial-country counterparts, because local financial markets are less developed. And access to international financial markets is limited and costly for many of these firms, since they carry the sovereign risk of the home country in addition to their company risks (IMF–World Bank 2005). These challenges sometimes lead large and successful developing-country multinationals to migrate to industrial countries. For example, South African Brewery moved its headquarters to Britain in 2001 to improve its risk rating and position itself for global expansion. India’s Ispat Corporation moved to the Netherlands for similar reasons. Operational challenges. Developing-country firms that invest abroad face operational issues

Box 4.3

T

South–South FDI may generate important benefits for developing countries The emergence of the South as a substantial source of FDI for developing countries may have significant implications for economic development. First, South–South FDI represents an opportunity for low-income countries. Except in the extractive sector, most northern multinationals are unlikely to invest in small markets, as market size is a major determinant of North–South FDI (Levy-Yeyati, Ugo, and Stein 2002; Stein and Daude 2001). In contrast, southern multinationals tend to invest in neighboring developing countries with a similar or lower level of development than their home country (World Bank 2005a). South–South FDI flows, however small, are significant for many poor countries, particularly those that are close to major investors. For example, India (in hotels and

The World Bank Group and South–South flows

he World Bank Group, particularly the International Finance Corporation, has several programs to help developing-country multinationals. IFC’s Foreign Investment Advisory Service (FIAS) is surveying firms and assessing the need for technical assistance to governments to enhance the investment climate as it affects outward FDI. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency

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that vary with the firm’s level of experience as a foreign investor and to some extent with the business environment in the firm’s home country. For example, with limited experience in FDI, some Chinese investors find it difficult to formulate projects that fit in with the culture, market characteristics, and regulatory environment of foreign countries (FIAS 2005). Some developing-country multinationals may have overbid for large assets due to lack of experience (IMF–World Bank 2005; Financial Times 2004). This is not an unusual phenomenon: Japanese firms experienced similar challenges when they started to venture abroad in the late 1980s (Goldstein forthcoming). The World Bank Group has made efforts to assist developingcountry multinationals in overcoming the institutional, financial, and operational challenges they face (box 4.3).

(MIGA) supports the efforts of local export-credit agencies to serve emerging South-South investors through coinsurance and reinsurance arrangements. In addition, MIGA’s recently launched Small Investment Program— which offers a streamlined insurance package and underwriting process—is designed to increase South-South investment.

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manufacturing) and China (in manufacturing) account for more than half of FDI in Nepal. Most FDI in Mongolia comes from China and the Russian Federation. An Indian company is securing approval for a $2.5 billion investment project in Bangladesh, which will be the largest foreign investment in the country. Moreover, low-income countries receive almost one-third of their banking sector FDI from other developing countries (see the section on banking in this chapter). Second, in some cases, developing countries may see greater positive spillovers from FDI originating in developing countries than from investments originating in industrial countries.22 To the extent that developing-country firms provide technologies that are more suitable for other developing countries (compared with more sophisticated technologies used by industrial-country firms), developing countries may be in a better position to absorb them. Baldwin and Winters (2004) find that a country’s absorption capacity is greater with a smaller technological gap between the foreign firm and domestic firms. Kabelwa (2004) finds that narrower technological gaps between developingcountry multinationals and host economies, compared with their industrial-country counterparts, foster positive spillovers. Schiff and others (2002) found that the extent of spillovers from participation in trade (as opposed to FDI) depends on the sector: companies in low R&D-intensive industries benefit more from trading with other developingcountry firms than with firms from industrial countries, while companies in high R&D industries benefit more from trading with firms from industrial countries. However, the importance of this advantage, which is most significant in manufacturing, is unclear, as South-South FDI is heavily concentrated in extractive industries and infrastructure, where such spillovers are limited. South–South FDI is not always more beneficial than North–South FDI. Over the years, many northern multinationals have participated in initiatives to improve the transparency of their foreign operations, as well as the environmental and labor standards observed in those operations.23 Such initiatives are less likely to have been implemented by southern companies, which also may have low environmental and labor standards (Goldstein forthcoming; IMF–World Bank 2005). That said, compliance with corporate governance standards by

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developing countries is increasing, although significant regional and sectoral variations in compliance remain (OECD 2005b). Ultimately, of course, it is the host country’s responsibility to improve its business environment and regulatory system to realize the development potential of FDI. Outward investment (including to highincome countries) may also generate benefits to the investing economy through increased competitiveness and exports. Surveys report that direct presence in foreign markets has enabled many Southern firms to increase their competitiveness and to respond better to consumer demand.24 Geographic risk diversification and market access can be crucial for some southern firms that are faced with volatile home markets.

South–South banking

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raditionally, banks have followed their clients overseas. Thus the growing importance of developing-country firms in overseas trade and investment has led to an expansion of cross-border activities by developing-country banks, both through lending and through investment carried out by branches and subsidiaries. As is the case with other financial flows to developing countries, foreign bank lending is dominated by industrialcountry banks. However, developing-country banks are playing a growing and already important role, especially in low-income countries. Because they are willing to penetrate markets where banks from industrial countries are reluctant to go, these banks may provide an important new source of external finance for low-income countries.

The rise in South–South cross-border banking is driven by several factors The recent increase in banks’ cross-border activities has come in response to global economic trends, liberalization of the financial sector in many developing countries, and advances in technology. Economic trends. The general expansion of syndicated lending to developing countries and the growing importance of developing-country lenders in such lending reflect a favorable external financing environment characterized by ample global liquidity, as well as improved economic conditions and greater openness to trade and capital flows in

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many developing countries. As South–South trade and FDI have expanded, many banks have followed their clients. FDI in banking is correlated with bilateral trade and FDI between source and host countries (Grosse and Goldberg 1991; Brealey and Kaplanis 1996; Williams 1998; Yamori 1998). Preferential trade agreements, which have burgeoned in number and scope since the 1990s (WTO 2003), are opening new opportunities for banks to provide trade finance. For example, Banco de Chile, the country’s second-largest bank in terms of assets, recently opened a branch in Beijing—reportedly to position itself to benefit from a new free-trade accord between the two countries (Latin Finance 2005). A number of Central American banks (e.g., Panama’s Banistmo, El Salvador’s Banco Cuscatlan) are seeking growth opportunities in other Central American retail financial markets to capitalize on regional trade integration and the recently concluded Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Standard Bank of South Africa has established a sizable presence in southern and eastern Africa, reflecting South Africa’s increased investment in and trade with the region. Migration. Banks have expanded cross-border activities to serve growing numbers of expatriates. For example, Pakistan’s Habib Bank has targeted a well-established customer base of expatriates through its branch network in South Asia. Financial sector liberalization. The liberalization of developing countries’ banking sectors and the sale of state-owned banks have increased opportunities for cross-border lending and investment by developing-country banks. Rules governing cross-border lending and the establishment of branches and subsidiaries by foreign banks have been eased—in many cases under the impetus of WTO commitments, notably in the Asia-Pacific region (Capital Intelligence and EIU, various issues). Technology. Advances in telecommunications and information technology are enabling banks and other financial institutions—including those based in developing countries—to better manage cross-border activities. Banks based in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and elsewhere have been investing heavily in electronic delivery systems and other technologies to enhance their ability to offer a wider array of financial services at a distance from headquarters.25 Sri Lanka’s Commercial Bank of Ceylon and Hungary’s OTP Bank, among others, have boosted their investment in technol-

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ogy to support a strategy of greater focus on serving SMEs and retail credit clients. The several motives behind the expansion of South–South banking can be illustrated by the experience of the State Bank of India (SBI) and ICICI Bank, India’s largest privately owned bank. Both are undertaking overseas expansions in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East to tap retail credit clients, to facilitate increasing trade and investment flows between India and other countries, to provide foreign currency–denominated loans to the overseas affiliates of Indian companies, and to provide remittance and retail credit services for Indian expatriates (Capital Intelligence, various issues; State Bank of India 2005; and ICICI Bank 2005).

South–South bank lending has grown There are two sources of data on developing countries’ foreign bank lending (see annex 1 for data sources and definitions). The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel publishes data on the foreign lending of banks from a few developing countries. Dealogic Loanware reports data on syndicated loan transactions, which are loans arranged by a group of banks (referred to as a syndicate). Syndicated lending. Most syndicated loans to developing countries are made by groups of banks in high-income countries. In the past 20 years, however, the volume of syndicated lending from developing countries and the number of banks participating in syndicates have grown sharply. South–South syndicated flows are estimated to have increased from $0.7 billion in 1985 to $6.2 billion in 2005, although the data have shown substantial variability across years and countries.26 The number of developing countries receiving such flows also has grown, from 19 in 1985 to 41 in 2005.27 The rise in South–South syndicated lending partly reflects the overall rise in syndicated lending to developing countries from all sources, which increased by almost the same amount from 1985 to 2005. Indeed, the share of South–South lending in total developing-country borrowing from the syndicated loan market equaled 3 percent in 1985 during the debt crisis. However, once lending from industrial countries picked up, the share of South–South lending fell to 1 percent in 1995, but then rose to 3.4 percent in 2005 (table 4.4). Borrowers in Europe and Central Asia and the Middle East and North Africa sourced the largest portion

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Table 4.4 South–South cross-border syndicated lending, 1985–2005 $ millions Borrower’s region of domicile

Eastern Europe & Central Asia Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Total Total syndicated lending to developing-country borrowers South–South share in syndicated lending to developing countries

1985

1995

2004

2005

234.4 326.8 8.7 15.0 56.4 54.2

31.2 109.1 130.0 12.9 431.6 165.1

1,420.0 694.2 986.8 349.7 470.5 301.7

2,719.7 1,120.9 364.0 463.8 872.0 686.1

695.5 22,895.6 3.0

879.9 91,943.2 1.0

4,222.9 112,238.2 3.8

6,226.5 184,034.7 3.4

Source: World Bank staff estimates based on loan syndicate transactions reported in Dealogic Loanware dataset.

of their syndicated loans from nonlocal developing-country banks (4.2 percent overall for both regions), while borrowers in Latin America continued to source the smallest portion (about 1.8 percent overall). The growing participation of developingcountry banks in syndicated lending also reflects the increasing size and sophistication of those banks. As syndicates typically are unwilling to include banks that are relatively unknown or unreliable, the growing role of developing-country banks in syndicates is one indication of their arrival as major players in global finance. For many banks, participation in recent South–South syndicated loans has been one element in a strategy of expansion into other developing countries through loans, acquisitions, and greenfield investments.28 Despite the growth of South–South lending, some aspects of developing countries’ participation have changed little over the years. Participation by local banks in syndicated loan transactions remains strong.29 Also, banks domiciled in developing countries tend not to be the lead arrangers or major participants in a syndicate, given their relative capital constraints compared with major industrial-country banks. Nevertheless, nonlocal developing-country banks participated in a mandated lead arranger role in nearly one-quarter of all South–South cross-border syndicated loan transactions in 2005 (49 of 206 transactions).30 South Africa’s Standard Bank was particularly active, as a mandated lead arranger for 28 transactions in 2005. The regional distribution of South–South syndicated lending flows as compared with syndicated lending flows to developing countries from all sources was broadly similar last year. Borrowers in

Eastern Europe and Central Asia attracted the highest share from both source groupings (35 percent and 44 percent, respectively), while borrowers in Sub-Saharan Africa attracted the lowest share (6 percent) from both source groupings. Notably, East Asia and Pacific attracted a much smaller share in 2005 from both source groupings (14 percent and 17 percent, respectively) compared with a decade earlier, just a few years ahead of the financial crisis. In 1995, East Asia and Pacific received nearly half of syndicated lending flows destined for developing countries—sourced both on a cross-border South–South basis and from all lending sources worldwide The share of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, in particular, was significantly smaller (at just 4 percent and 7 percent, respectively). Cross-border lending reported to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Cross-border lending by banks located in developing countries that report to the BIS (that is, countries with significant cross-border lending) has increased significantly, reaching $94 billion in 2005 (figure 4.4).31 While in 1999 no developing country reported to the BIS, by 2005 six developing countries (Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico, Panama, and Turkey) were reporting data; more are expected to follow soon. About 85 percent of the cross-border lending was to the banking sector (the average across all countries was 65 percent), indicating that a substantial share of this lending represents international transactions between affiliates of the same bank. The above data indicate the growing importance of certain developing countries as banking centers from which domestic and foreign banks operate, but they capture external positions in all countries (including high-income countries). Data

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Figure 4.4 Cross-border lending to all countries by banks in developing countries, 2000–5

South–South bank ownership is significant Banks from 40 developing countries (most of them middle-income) hold 5 percent of the $944 billion dollars in foreign bank assets in developing countries (based on Bankscope data; see annex 1).33 Excluding Panama (an important offshore center), the biggest investors are banks in South Africa, Malaysia, and Hungary. The pattern of ownership differs significantly by region. In South Asia, 20 percent of foreign bank assets are held by banks in other developing countries.34 In Europe and Central Asia the same share is just 2 percent (table 4.5).35 While these data indicate that participation by developing-country banks is significant, banks from high-income countries still account for 95 percent of total foreign bank assets in developing countries. Moreover, all foreign banks account for only 16 percent of total banking sector assets in developing countries. South–South bank ownership thus accounts for less than 1 percent of total bank assets in developing countries. Northern foreign banks in developing countries—with median assets of $361 million—tend to be larger than southern foreign banks—with median assets of $92 million. Southern bank participation is more important in terms of the number of banks.

Source: Bank for International Settlements. Note: Yearly data are averages based on quarterly data.

from countries that report the destination of their foreign claims (so far only Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Panama) indicate that the South–South component is growing.32 For example, foreign claims on developing countries reported by Brazilian banks rose from $1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2002 to $2 billion in the third quarter of 2003, while Chilean banks’ foreign claims on developing countries rose from $176 million to $891 million in the same period. The increase in South–South foreign claims by banks from Panama rose only by 10 percent, and foreign claims on developing countries by Mexican banks decreased in the last two years. However, on average the increase of South–South foreign claims reported by these four countries has been more significant than the 58 percent rise in total North–South foreign claims (from all high-income to all developing countries).

South–South banking increases opportunities for low-income countries Banks from industrialized countries and developing countries alike tend to invest in countries with which they have strong trade linkages, that share a common language and legal system, and that are nearby. But because developing-country banks have more experience doing business in a challeng-

Table 4.5 Source of foreign bank assets, by region % of foreign bank assets in host region owned by banks in other regions Source region

Host region

East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa

East Asia & Pacific

Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

High-income countries

Total

6.39 .. .. .. .. 0.07

.. 1.84 .. .. .. 0.03

.. .. 4.78 .. .. 0.02

.. 0.01 .. 8.91 .. 0.29

.. .. .. .. 0.74 1.99

.. 0.03 .. .. 19.51 14.12

93.57 98.11 95.26 91.19 79.83 83.54

100 100 100 100 100 100

Source: World Bank Staff estimates based on Bankscope. Note: Foreign assets are averages over the 2000–4 period. A foreign bank is defined to have at least 50 percent foreign ownership as of December 2005. .. = Negligible.

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ing economic environment, they have a comparative advantage over industrialized-country banks when entering low-income countries (box 4.4). As a result, low-income countries, which have problems attracting bank lending from industrial country banks, are benefiting disproportionately from the increased supply of banking services from other developing countries. Cross-border investment by developingcountry banks is more significant in low-income countries (27 percent of foreign bank assets and 47 percent of the number of foreign banks) than in middle-income countries (4 percent of foreign assets and 22 percent of foreign banks) (figure 4.5). The correlation between income level and the share of banks from developing countries in foreign bank assets is –0.37, which is statistically significant. In addition, low-income countries are also important in South–South syndicated lending; their share increased from 3 percent ($24 million) in 1985 to 17 percent ($1 billion) in 2005, although the vast majority of this latter amount was concentrated in a few countries in East and South Asia (notably, India).

South–South banking takes place largely within the region Foreign investment and lending by developingcountry banks is regionally concentrated. In East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa, practically all developing-country foreign banks are from the same region (table 4.5). In Sub-Saharan Africa, banks from other regions account for only 14 percent of developing-country foreign banks. By contrast, almost all developing-country foreign banks in South Asia are from Sub-Saharan Africa. However, these data reflect ownership by branches and holding companies of banks from OECD countries based in Mauritius (an offshore banking center) that own Indian banks. Intraregional transactions are becoming less dominant in South–South cross-border syndicated lending. In 2005, 52 percent of this lending was to borrowers in the same region as the lenders, down from 66 percent in 1985.36 Intraregional lending remained particularly important in East Asia (where 97 percent of South–South cross-border loans are intraregional) and Latin America (83 percent) in 2005. Cross-regional South–South lending

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Figure 4.5 South–South foreign bank entry in developing countries, by country income level Share of Banks in Total Foreign Banksa

Share of Assets in Total Foreign Assetsb

Percentage

Percentage

50

50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0 Lowincome countries

Middleincome countries

All developing countries

Lowincome countries

Middleincome countries

All developing countries

Source: World Bank Staff estimates based on Bankscope. Note: “Southern foreign banks” are those banks headquartered in a developing country. A foreign bank is one that had at least 50 percent foreign ownership as of December 2005. a. Number of southern foreign banks as a percentage of all foreign banks (left panel). b. Bank assets held by southern foreign banks as a percentage of total foreign assets, averaged over 2000–4 (right panel).

was particularly important in India (where 76 percent of South–South lending was cross-regional), Kazakhstan (83 percent), and the Russian Federation (77 percent). Important motivations for crossregional South–South bank lending include trade financing (which accounted for the vast majority of cross-regional loans in 2005) and the desire to serve expatriates. In addition to these purposes, major uses of intraregional loans were the financing of acquisitions and other expansion plans (particularly in East Asia) and infrastructural development projects in power, telecommunications, and transport (in both East Asia and Latin America). The dominance of intraregional cross-border banking in part reflects the importance of intraregional trade and FDI flows (discussed earlier) and the priority being given to regional cooperation and integration in policy agendas. In addition, geographic proximity often implies a common cultural heritage, language, or ethnic ties, making it easier for banks to assume more risk. Just as local banks have an advantage over foreign banks due to their greater knowledge of local conditions and their ability to screen and monitor local borrowers (Nini 2004), foreign banks from within the same geographic region may have an advantage over other nonlocal lenders. This greater familiarity means that banks from the same region can lend more than nonregional banks and are more likely to expand beyond the traditional focus on corporate banking

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Box 4.4 Determinants of South–South foreign bank entry

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he economic literature on the determinants of foreign bank entry has not distinguished between foreign ownership by banks from industrial countries and developing countries. (see, for example, Buch and DeLong 2004; Focarelli and Pozzolo 2000; and Galindo, Micco, and Serra 2003). However, country studies and anecdotal evidence suggest that industrial-country banks invest in developing countries for different reasons than do developing-country banks. To address this issue, we estimated a model of decisions by foreign banks to enter developing-country markets. We measure foreign bank penetration, the dependent variable, in terms of the level of total assets owned by foreigners. The model is explained in detail in annex 3. The results (see table) reveal some important similarities and differences between the determinants of foreign bank investment in developing countries by industrial-country and developing-country banks: •

•

•

•

• •

•

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FDI by both industrial-country and developing-country banks is strongly related to bilateral trade flows, one indicator of integration between source and host countries. Essentially, banks tend to follow their customers. Colonial ties are an important explanation of foreign bank penetration by industrial-country banks, but less so for developing-country banks. A common language, which reduces the cost of foreign banking, is a significant determinant of foreign bank entry for both industrial- and developingcountry banks. Distance is negatively related to foreign bank entry, but the effect appears to be smaller for banks from developing countries than for banks from industrial countries. After controlling for distance, a common border is not a significant determinant of foreign bank entry. Banks from industrial countries tend to go to large developing countries, while banks from developing countries tend to enter the smaller developing countries. In addition, the depth of the financial sector is negatively correlated with foreign ownership by industrial-country banks, but positively with ownership by developing-country banks Banks from industrial and developing countries are equally likely to be deterred from entering a developing country with a different legal system.

Determinants of foreign bank entry: northern versus southern foreign banks

Colonial linkages Border Common language Distance Trade GDP Financial sector depth Different legal system Quality institutions Observations

Northern bank

Southern bank

0.757* 0.297 0.338* –0.153* 0.014* 0.040* –0.048* –0.045* 0.006 5,532

0.699* 0.297 0.338* –0.123* 0.014* –0.009* 0.008* –0.045* –0.060*

Source: World Bank staff calculations. Note: Mean of dependent variable = 0.59 * = significant at level of at least 10 percent.

•

After controlling for all of the above determinants of FDI, the quality of institutions does not appear to influence the decision by an industrial-country bank to enter a developing country. However, banks from developing countries are more likely to enter developing countries with weak institutions. This result seems to indicate that banks from developing countries, being more familiar with working in domestic environments where institutional development is low, are more suited to investing in such markets.

The coefficients in the table express the marginal effects of the impact of the respective variable on foreign ownership by northern and southern banks. The marginal effects capture the combined effect of the impact of the explanatory variable on the probability of entering the host country and on the amount of FDI. Overall, the model provides support for the conclusions in the literature that FDI in foreign banking is strongly related to economic integration, common language, and proximity; this holds true for both industrial and developing-country banks. More interestingly, it appears that developing-country banks are more likely to invest in small developing countries with weak institutions, where industrial country banks are reluctant to go. These results indicate that FDI decisions are not so much influenced by the absolute amount of risk faced by firms, but rather by a given firm’s ability to bear that risk better than other investors. For a more detailed discussion, see Van Horen (2006).

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to sectors that require new and different sources of information. For example, in some developing countries, foreign banks from the same region have given more emphasis to providing retail financial services (mortgages, consumer loans, debt and credit card services, and remittance services for expatriates) and loans to SMEs.37

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and Mulaisho 1999). The directors of the bank were prosecuted for criminal charges for allegedly having received deposits while knowing that the bank was insolvent.39 The available data, however, do not indicate that, on average, developing-country banks investing in low-income developing countries are significantly weaker than industrial-country banks that do the same. The asset quality of developing-country banks in these countries is lower than that of banks from high-income countries, but the differences are not statistically significant (table 4.6). Similarly, indicators of efficiency and operational performance in low-income countries are slightly better for northern banks, but not by enough to be statistically significant. In middle-income countries there is some indication that banks from high-income countries seem to outperform developingcountry banks, both in asset quality and in efficiency and operational performance. However, since penetration of the banking sector by developing-country banks is especially prevalent in lowincome countries, the risks posed by southern foreign banks to their host countries because of possible poor capitalization or management are not significantly greater than similar risks posed by northern banks.

Developing-country banks are not a significantly greater source of poor asset quality or management Investments in the banking sector of developing countries by banks from other developing countries could create instability if those banks were poorly managed or if their asset quality were low. As with industrial-country banks, however, the record of entry into developing-country financial systems by banks from other developing countries is mixed. For example, Ecobank, a successful private sector banking group based in 13 countries in West and Central Africa, has strengthened the banks it has taken over. Standbic, a South African bank, greatly improved the soundness and efficiency of the United Commercial Bank of Uganda.38 By contrast, several branches of the Meridian Bank of Zambia were liquidated after a major run on its deposits (Rakner, van de Walle,

Table 4.6 Performance indicators for northern and southern foreign banks, selected aggregates, 2000–4 Ratios in percentages Asset quality Loan loss reserves/ gross loans

Efficiency and operational performance

Loan loss provision/net interest revenue

Net interest margin

Return on average assets

Cost-toincome ratio

Net income/ total assets

Memo No. of countries (banks)

Low-income countries

North foreign South foreign

7.05 6.92

15.54 26.11

9.47 8.94

1.88 0.84

65.80 90.90

1.77 0.77

30 (74) 30 (63)

Middle-income countries

North foreign South foreign

6.42 11.38

27.03 49.12

6.38 7.82

1.14 –0.35

73.73 76.04

0.81 0.17

53 (439) 53 (87)

All countries

North foreign South foreign

6.50 9.46

25.43 39.54

6.86 8.30

1.25 0.16

72.64 82.26

0.94 0.42

83 (513) 83 (150)

Source: World Bank staff estimates based on Bankscope. Note: Ratios are calculated for each bank in each country and then averaged for North and South foreign banks separately within an income level. Host and source countries that are offshore banking centers are excluded from the sample. Pairs of entries that are significantly different from each other at the 10% level of significance are shown in bold. The ratio of loan-loss reserves to gross loans indicates how much of the total portfolio has been provided for but not charged off. Given a similar charge-off policy, the higher the ratio, the poorer the quality of the loan portfolio. Loan-loss provision over net interest revenue is the relationship between provisions in the profit-and-loss account and interest income over the same period. This ratio should be as low as possible. Net interest margin is the ratio of net interest income to earning assets. The higher this figure, the cheaper the funding or the higher the margin the bank is commanding. Higher margins are desirable as long as asset quality is maintained. Return on average assets looks at the returns generated from the assets financed by the bank. The cost-to-income ratio measures the overheads and costs of running the bank as percentage of income generated before provisions. It is a measure of efficiency, although if the lending margins in a particular country are very high then the ratio will improve as a result. Net income to total assets shows the profitability of the bank.

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South–South banking can strengthen domestic financial services but may entail some risks Even if foreign bank entry does not generate a capital inflow (because subsidiaries may generate their funds locally), it can improve the quality and availability of domestic financial services. Increased competitive pressure can lead to stronger credit growth, more aggressive provisioning behavior, and higher loss-absorption capacity—all of which can help stabilize domestic banking systems (Crystal, Dages, and Goldberg 2001). Managerial and technology spillovers may benefit domestic banks, as well. Foreign banks also can help stimulate the development of the underlying supervisory and legal system by pressuring host-country governments to improve institutions, thereby enhancing the country’s access to the international capital market (see, for example, Levine 1996). Claessens, Demirguc-Kunt, and Huizinga (2001) find that greater presence of foreign banks (from high-income countries) is associated with reductions in profitability, lower noninterest income, and lower overall expenses of domestic banks. South–South foreign banking is too recent a phenomenon to permit a judgment about whether entry by banks from developing countries produces the same effects. It is possible that developing-country banks are less sophisticated in technology and banking practices, so that they would not generate the same degree of competition and hence not lead to the same efficiency gains. Alternatively, as argued elsewhere in this chapter, host countries may find it easier to adapt technology from other developing countries, thus increasing spillovers. In the absence of empirical work, one can only speculate on which effect may be more important. South–South banking has the potential to direct capital away from the source country, thus reducing the supply of credit available to market participants that are already credit deprived. This can happen when total lending by participating banks is constrained by their available capital or the availability of skilled staff (as opposed to being constrained by the lack of investment opportunities in the domestic market). As capital is scarce in most developing countries, it is widely presumed that domestic lending is constrained by capital availability, at least in countries where the investment climate is adequate to support increased economic activity. The fact is, however,

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that in some countries the poor investment climate severely reduces the availability of profitable investment opportunities; in such cases banks’ cross-border lending may not reduce the effective supply of domestic credit. Entry by developing-country foreign banks may increase credit volatility. In general, foreign banks increase credit volatility if they quickly decrease their exposure to the country when domestic conditions deteriorate (Caballero 2002) or reduce their lending when deteriorating economic conditions in their home country reduce their capital. On the other hand, foreign banks may reduce credit volatility because they are less reliant on erratic local deposits—their reputation for soundness may attract local deposits during a credit crisis, thus reducing outflows from the domestic financial system. Overall, developing-country banks may make a greater contribution to instability than industrialcountry banks. Developing-country banks are more likely to be subject to financial crises in their home country than are industrial-country banks, and thus are more likely to reduce credit due to sharp changes in their capital. For example, banks from Latin America are more likely to react with a reduction in credit when they experience a reduction in real deposits than are banks from developed countries (IDB 2002). Furthermore, the less secure reputations of developing-country banks indicate that they may play a less important role in attracting local deposits during a domestic credit crisis.

Developing-country stock exchanges Emerging trends in regional versus international integration A feature common to many nations’ efforts to develop their financial sectors over the past several decades has been the establishment of a national stock exchange—or the expansion of an existing one. It has been argued that such a development can be an important step toward a modern, wellfunctioning financial sector—as a means of increasing and improving the allocation of savings and investments.40 Many international organizations, including the World Bank, have supported these efforts (IFC 1991). As a result, there are currently some 85 stock exchanges operating in some

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75 developing countries.41 Many of the exchanges have very low ratios of market capitalization to GDP and are characterized by lack of depth (low turnover), inadequate transparency, operational inefficiency, and poor regulation, calling into question the notion that they contribute to efficient resource mobilization and allocation. 42 Consequently, in the past several years, there has been growing interest in the possible advantages of consolidating national stock exchanges in developing countries and so addressing the impediments of small size, illiquidity, and inadequate market infrastructure (table 4.7).

Limited progress toward regional integration, but some positive signs Stock exchanges across developing regions have introduced various initiatives over the past decade to forge closer regional links both intraregionally and, in some cases, extraregionally. Thus far, however, actual progress toward merging or integrating stock exchanges among developing countries has been limited. Many developing-country capital markets remain more integrated with the major international financial markets than with other developing countries. In part, this is due to a lack of intraregional harmonization of tax, accounting, disclosure, and other stock-market listing and trading regulations and procedures. In Asia, for example, stock markets remain fragmented and poorly integrated, and cross-border listings between developing-country exchanges remain uncommon.43 Overseas listings by companies domiciled in Asian developing economies are still more likely to take place via depositary receipt and other issues on developed-country exchanges, particularly in Hong Kong (China), Singapore, Japan, New York, London, and, increasingly for South Asian firms in recent years, Luxembourg.44 Cross-border listings by firms in southern Africa on the Johannesburg and other national exchanges in the subregion are not uncommon.45 However, many of the largest South African companies moved their primary listings from Johannesburg to the London Stock Exchange (particularly during the 1990s), citing a need for access to a much larger capital market. Neither Asia nor Latin America has taken a strong intraregional approach—at least in practice— toward developing national equity markets. In Asia,

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Table 4.7 Stock exchanges in selected developing countries, December 2005

Market

Botswana Ecuador Ghana Latvia Oman Philippines Sri Lanka Trinidad & Tobago Tunisia Ukraine

Company listings

Market capitalization ($ millions)

Market capitalization as % of GDP

Annual turnover ratio (%)

18 32 30 45 96 235 239 37 46 221

2,438 3,215 1,661 2,527 15,269 40,153 5,720 16,971 2,876 24,976

25 98 21 16 45 44 26 120 10 35

2.1 4.2 3.2 7.9 31.5 14.0 18.3 3.8 8.9 2.5

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Emerging Stock Markets Review (January 2006); Standard & Poor’s Global Stock Markets Factbook, 2005; World Bank database (for GDP data). Note: Annual turnover ratios are calculated by dividing the total value traded in 2004 by average market capitalization for 2003 and 2004.

the focus of intraregional initiatives in recent years has been bond markets—via the ASEAN+3 initiatives to develop an intraregional bond market. But, so far, although issues of foreign currency–denominated bonds by Asian sovereigns and private firms have increased, most tend to be denominated in U.S. dollars, and most of the investment in these issues is sourced from Europe or the United States—albeit with a significant amount coming from Asian investors residing there.46 In Latin America, by contrast, recent efforts to develop capital markets have focused on the equity markets and have included some plans that take an intraregional approach. The region’s two largest exchanges, in Mexico and Brazil, signed an agreement in 2005 that will soon allow cross-border investments in shares on their exchanges. Since the 1990s, the MERCOSUR countries have taken steps to encourage more cross-border trading in the markets of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Nevertheless, the actual volume of crossborder listings and investment in intraregional securities between developing countries in Latin America remains small.47 Steps to increase intraregional cooperation— rather than outright integration—as a means of developing national capital markets are increasingly evident, particularly in the form of an increase in agreements between developing-country stock exchanges to encourage more cross-border listings and investment, information and technology sharing, training, and staff exchanges. Some

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Figure 4.6 Developing-country firms shift away from ADRs No. of new ADRs/delistings on U.S. stock exchanges 30 Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia 25

Latin America Middle East & North Africa Europe & Central Asia

20

East Asia & Pacific 15

10

5

2000

2001

2002

2004

Delistings

New ADRs

Delistings

Delistings

2003

New ADRs

New ADRs

Delistings

New ADRs

Delistings

New ADRs

Delistings

New ADRs

0

2005

Source: Bank of New York Depositary Receipts Division.

of these agreements also promote joint efforts to develop new financial products and develop the stock-brokerage profession. A growing number of such cooperation agreements has been signed with exchanges outside the region—in developed as well as other developing countries.

Signs of a move away from American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and toward more local listings Developing-country firms may be less likely in the future to list on major international financial centers’ markets than on domestic markets. In part, this is due to the recovery of trading activity and share prices in developing-country stock markets—reversing the downturns of the late 1990s (see box 2.2). That recovery has been driven by rapid economic growth and greater corporate earnings, as well as by local stock-market regulatory reforms to increase local trading activity, attract more investors and issuers to local and regional markets, and improve efficiency and competitiveness. There also is an ongoing effort— apparent across all developing-country regions— to bring financial reporting and disclosure standards more in line with international standards.

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At the same time, increased regulatory and disclosure requirements in industrial-country markets, and their associated costs, are giving some impetus to local initiatives to develop capital markets, including those taking an intraregional approach. More costly and complicated documentation requirements, and significantly increased human resource and other capacity requirements for compliance with the more stringent reporting standards of Section 404 of the U.S. SarbanesOxley Act of 2003, have coincided with an apparent decline in the attraction of an overseas listing on a U.S. exchange in recent years—particularly for companies based in Latin America, and also for many companies based in Asia (see figure 4.6).48 New issues of depositary receipts by Latin American firms on U.S. exchanges declined from 11 in 2000 to none in 2005.49 Moreover, there were six delistings of ADRs in 2005, five of which involved Latin American firms. At the same time, more companies in middle-income countries in Latin America and elsewhere have made initial public offerings (IPOs) or other forms of share issues in recent years (see also figure 2.9).

More must be done to improve financial intermediation at the national level Regional cooperation and, possibly at a later stage, integration could improve the liquidity, efficiency, and competitiveness of securities exchanges in developing countries. But for many emerging markets, further progress in developing well-functioning national securities markets (and financial markets generally) is needed ahead of moves to integrate those markets. Hasty integration of several small, illiquid national stock markets would likely create nothing more than a large, illiquid regional market. Short of full integration, underdeveloped national exchanges could meanwhile benefit from the steps they have been taking to encourage closer cooperation, including through cross-border listings and investment, and through information and technology sharing.50 More intraregional trading activity could also facilitate the privatization of large corporations, by providing a market for large share issues that could not be absorbed on a national basis. Beyond general progress in strengthening national financial markets, several steps are important at the national level to facilitate eventual

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cross-border integration. Countries participating in cross-border trades must have convertible currencies and would have to liberalize those remaining controls and other restrictions on capital flows that impede cross-border trading, payments, and settlements. Harmonizing regulatory and policy frameworks would facilitate cross-border listing and investment and would be a prerequisite to actual integration.51

Conclusion

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vailable data indicate that more developing countries are lending to and investing in other developing countries. The expansion of South–South capital flows reflects both the general growth of cross-border financial transactions in the wake of globalization and the increasing size and sophistication of developing-country banks and multinationals. Greater South–South flows promise greater resources for low-income countries, a more efficient allocation of capital by lenders and investors familiar with developing-country conditions, and potentially greater transmission of technology and knowhow from FDI. The potential benefits of greater South–South integration are supported by anecdotes, a few empirical studies, and deduction and inference from the history of North–South capital flows, rather than by a large body systematic research. The fact is that the data on South–South capital flows are limited, and assem-

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bling those data from available sources is an arduous task (see annex 1). Moreover, very little research has been done on South–South financial integration. In part this reflects the relative novelty of developing countries as a significant source of capital, in part the absence of data, and in part the desire of development economists to focus their energies on the principal source of capital flows to developing countries (the high-income countries). We hope that this foray into South–South capital flows will draw greater attention to developing countries as a source of capital. Greater efforts to collect data are essential to progress. Further empirical research could focus on (1) the extent of spillovers from South–South FDI and how these differ from spillovers from North–South FDI; (2) the impact of government impediments to, and incentives for, outward investment in developing countries; (3) the impact of developing-country banks on macroeconomic instability in their foreign markets, including the extent to which developing-country banks transmit crises from source to host country and whether the quality of management and financial soundness of internationally active developing-country banks differs greatly from high-income country banks; (4) the circumstances under which efforts to increase the integration of regional capital markets are likely to improve their efficiency; and (5) circumstances under which regional trade agreements and other forms of regional integration have a positive impact on economic growth and development.

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Chapter 4 Annexes

Annex 1: Data on South–South capital flows

M

ost countries do not routinely publish data on capital flows by source country. Thus it is not possible to rely on official sources to calculate the portion of capital flows to developing countries that come from other developing countries. In constructing a database on South–South capital flows, we have relied on a variety of sources, including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Loanware, Bankscope, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank.

Measuring South–South loans BIS recently has begun publishing data on lending by banks domiciled in some developing countries. However, data are available only since 2000, and only for five countries (Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico, and Turkey). Moreover, data are available for all of these countries only since 2003. While the BIS data do provide some indication of the role of banks in developing countries as lenders, they cannot provide a very complete picture of South–South lending. Most of our analysis of South–South lending, therefore, is based on data on syndicated loans obtained from Loanware, although considerable work was required to calculate the share of South–South transactions. While many transaction entries detail the allocation of loans among all participating banks, others do not, depending on the disclosure practices of particular syndicates. Where participation by all banks is disclosed, nonlocal developing-country bank partici-

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pation in a loan is taken directly from Loanware. Where loan-allocation details for a particular loan transaction are not disclosed, an estimate of the cross-border South–South lending component for that transaction is derived by multiplying the total transaction amount by the average share of nonlocal South–South lending in syndicated loan transactions with some portion of developingcountry bank participation arranged for borrowers in the region that year.52

Measuring South–South foreign bank ownership Data on foreign banks in developing countries, as well as related financial variables, are based on Bankscope and include all active commercial banks, saving banks, cooperative banks, bank holding companies, and middle and long credit banks that were available in Bankscope as of December 2005. When ownership information is not available in Bankscope, information is gathered from banks’ Web sites or other Internet sources.53 We determine whether each bank is foreign-owned, that is, whether at least 50 percent of the bank’s shares are owned by foreigners. In addition, the percentage of shares are summed by country of residence of the shareholder, and the country with the highest percentage of shares is appointed as the source country. Ownership is based on the direct ownership structure; indirect ownership is not taken into account. Countries with fewer than five active banks in Bankscope were excluded from the sample. In addition, Guatemala was excluded, as ownership information was available for only a small portion of the country’s banks. We were left with a sample of 103 developing countries. In total, the database

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provides us with information on ownership and related financial variables for 2,297 banks, of which 35 percent are foreign owned.

Measuring South–South foreign direct investment Developing countries do not report the source of FDI inflows. Therefore, data on South–South FDI flows are calculated by comparing total FDI inflows to developing countries with FDI outflows from high-income to developing countries; the difference is South–South FDI flows. First, FDI outflows from high-income countries to developing countries are calculated. For high-income OECD countries, the OECD provides data on FDI outflows to 35 developing countries that account for 85 percent of all FDI inflows to developing countries. For high-income countries that are not part of the OECD, including several offshore centers, data on FDI outflows are taken from the IMF and UNCTAD. Since detailed destination data are not available, we assume that all of the FDI outflows from high-income non-OECD countries went to developing countries. (This assumption leads to an underestimation of South–South FDI flows.) Second, data on FDI inflows (to the 35 developing countries covered by the OECD database) are taken from the World Bank. South–South FDI

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flows (to the 35 developing countries) are then approximated by FDI inflows in developing countries that are not from developed countries (Aykut and Ratha 2004). The estimation technique suffers from the several weaknesses, some of which will lead to an underestimation, some an overestimation, of South–South FDI. First, FDI outflows to developing countries may be underreported by the high-income countries. It is likely that a portion of the FDI outflows that are not identified by country go to developing countries, which would imply an overestimation of South–South FDI. Second, FDI inflows are likely to be underreported by some developing countries, which would imply that our data are underestimates of South–South FDI. Third, round-tripping of flows (the export of capital to a foreign country for the purpose of investment back in the home country, often to benefit from tax incentives) will lead to overestimation of South–South FDI flows. Fourth, transactions channeled through offshore financial centers may be misclassified as FDI. Fifth, FDI from the North may be channeled through a developing country to another high-income country (indirect FDI flows), causing an overestimation of South–South flows. And finally, relying on a sample of 35 developing countries may lead to an underestimation of the level of South–South flows.

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Annex 2: Selected South–South M&A deals by southern multinationals in service sector, 2000–5 In services sector Year

Acquiring company

Country

Acquired company

Country

Sector

2005 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2002 2002 2001 2001 2001 2001 2000 2000 2000 1998

America Movil Anglogold Ltd Sinergy CEZA.S. Teléfonos de Mexico Teléfonos de Mexico Vempelcom YTL Power Teléfonos de Mexico Teléfonos de Mexico Vodacom Ressano Garcia Railways company MTN Teléfonos de Mexico Industrial Development Corporation Vodacom Orascom Teléfonos de Mexico Teléfonos de Mexico Teléfonos de Mexico

Mexico South Africa Brazil Czech Republic Mexico Mexico Russia Malaysia Mexico Mexico South Africa South Africa South Africa Mexico South Africa South Africa Egypt Mexico Mexico Mexico

TIM Peru Ashanti Goldfields Avianca Capital Electricity Colombia Telecomunicaciones Embratel Kar-tel Jawa Power Chilesat Techtel Vodacom Mozambique Caminhos de Ferro Mozambique MTN Comcel Mozal II Vodacom Congo Telecel ATL Conecel TelGua

Peru Ghana Colombia Bulgaria Colombia Brazil Kazakhstan Indonesia Chile Argentina Mozambique Mozambique Nigeria Columbia Mozambique Republic of Congo 12 African countries Brazil Ecuador Guatemala

Telecommunications Gold ores Air transportation Electric services Telecommunications Telecommunications Telecommunications Electric services Telecommunications Telecommunications Telecommunications Cyclical services Telecommunications Telecommunications Basic industries Telecommunications Telecommunications Telecommunications Telecommunications Telecommunications

Location of the acquired asset

Value ($ millions)

500 1500 400 400 400 400 400 200 130 100 260 78 285 257 160 142 413 345 153 700

In extractive sector Year

Acquiring company

Country

Acquired company

Country

2005 2005 2005 2005

Andes Petroleum CNPC CNOOC Sinopec Group (50%) and ONGC (20%)

China China China China-India

EnCana Petro Kazakh MEG Energy National Iranian Oil Company

Canada Canada Canada Iran

2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2002 2002 2002 2001 2000 1998 1997

CNPC Gazprom Metorex Rangold Resources Rangold Resources CNOOC CNPC Investor Group Sinochem Lukoil AngloGold Impala Platinum Impala Platinum Impala Platinum Sasol CNOOC PetroChina Corp Escom Holding Saso Oil AngloGold China National Petroleum Corp China National Petroleum Corp

China Russia South Africa South Africa South Africa China China China China Russia South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa China China South Africa South Africa South Africa China China

Plus Petrol Norte Lietuvos Ruashi Mining Loulo Concessions Licences and assets Tangguh LNG project Oil field Amerada Hess Ecuador Block 16 Beopetro Ashanti Zimbabwe Plat. Mes Hartley Platinum Mines Platinum mines Escravos gas to liquid plant Repsol YPF SA Devon Energy Grand Inga Falls Pande Teemanegasfields Ashanti Goldfields Oil Field Aktyubinskmunaygaz

Peru Lithuania D. R. Congo Mali Angola Indonesia Kazakhstan Indonesia Ecuador Serbia Ghana Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Zimbabwe Nigeria Spain — D. R. Congo Mozambique Tanzania R. B. de Venezuela Kazakhstan

Source: UNCTAD and news sources. Note: — denotes not available.

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Value ($ millions)

Ecuador 1420 Mainly in Kazakhstan 4180 Canada 120 Yadavaran Oil Fields $70–100 in Iran billion over 30 years 200 Lithuania 50 D. R. Congo 86 Mali 80 Angola 15 275 N Buzachi 200 164 100 Serbia 130 Ghana 274 Zimbabwe 85 Zimbabwe 80 Zimbabwe 19 Nigeria undisclosed Indonesia 591.9 Indonesia 262 D. R. Congo 1200 Mozambique 581 Tanzania 83 240.7 325

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Annex 3: Model of determinants of bank ownership

T

he following is an explanation of the model used in box 4.4. To test the differences between determinants of foreign bank entry in developing countries by banks from developing countries and from high-income countries, we estimate the following model using Tobit: FCij = α1Collinksij + α2Collinksij * DS + β1Borderij + β2Borderij * DS + γ1Comlangij + γ2Comlangij * DS + δ1Distij + δ2Distij * DS + κ1Tradeij + κ2Tradeij * DS + λ1GDP + λ2GDP S * D + µ1Findepth + µ2Findepth S S * D + ϕ1Legaldif + ϕ2Legaldif * D S + θ1Inst + θ2Inst * D + ρ1Entryres + ρ2GDPsource + ρ3GDPcapsource + ρ4Dregion + τ1constant + εij

The dependent variable is defined as the ratio of the sum of assets of banks in host country i of which a source country j owns 50 percent or more equity, divided by the total amount of banking assets in host country i. Collinks is a dummy with a value of 1 if the host and source countries have had colonial links either between colonizer and colony or between those countries colonized by the same colonizer. Ds is a dummy with a value of 1 if both host and source country are a developing country. Border is a dummy with a value of 1 if the countries share a border. Comlang is a dummy with a value of 1 if the countries share the same language. Dist refers to the log of the distance between the host and source countries. Trade is the log of exports plus imports in 2000 between the two countries. GDP is the log of the host country’s GDP in 2000. Findepth is the log of M2 as a percentage of GDP in the host country in 2000. Legaldif is a dummy with a value of 1 if the origin of the legal system of the host and source countries differs. Inst is the simple average of six indicators of quality of institutions in the host country in 2000 as measured by Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi (2005). Entryres is a dummy with a value of 1 if foreign bank entry is restricted. GDPsource and GDPcapsource are the logs, respectively, of GDP and GDP per capita in the source country in 2000. Dregion are dummies for each region.

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Notes 1. See annex 1 for the methods used to compile data on South-South transactions. 2. Data on bilateral remittance flows are not available. The estimate in figure 4.1 assumes that bilateral remittances are a function of the stock of migrants in the sending country. This estimate is consistent with the fact that nearly half of the migrant stock from the South migrate to another country in the South. 3. It is difficult to obtain data on foreigners’ purchases of stock issues. But see figure 2.14 on initial public offerings in emerging markets. 4. The G-20 and G-90 groups were formed at the time of the WTO ministerial in Cancun in September 2003. The G-20 includes some of the larger developing countries, while the G-90 is made up of countries from the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) group, the African Union, and the least developed countries. 5. According to the index published by the Heritage Foundation. See http://www.heritage.org/research/ features/index/downloads.cfm. 6. These are unweighted averages. The average for high-income countries includes non-OECD countries. 7. The discussion of RTAs is taken from World Bank (2005b). 8. World FDI in services quadrupled between 1990 and 2002 (UNCTAD 2004). By 2002, the services sector accounted for 70 percent and 47 percent of FDI stock in developed and developing countries, respectively (World Bank 2004). 9. The services sector includes electricity, gas, water, transport, communication, construction, wholesale and retail trade and repairs, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage and communications, finance and insurance, real estate, renting, and business services, public administration, defense, education, health, social services, social and personal service activities, and recreational, cultural, and sporting activities. Not all services are nontradable or require physical proximity. 10. For example, America Movil (Mexico) bought out the shares of its partners (SBC and Bell Canada) in Brazil and of its partner (Bell Canada) in Colombia in 2002. 11. See Goldstein (forthcoming) and Pradhan (2005). 12. Examples include the Indian R&D center of Chinese white goods producer Haier, and Russian design and R&D centers for the shipping industry and drilling platforms (Vahtra and Liuhto 2004). 13. The extractive industries also attract a large share of developed-country FDI in Africa. In 2002, 53 percent of FDI from four major developed-country investors in Africa (France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States) was in the extractive sector (World Bank 2004, figure 3.6). 14. China has partnerships or investments in oil and gas exploration projects in Cuba, Peru, and República Bolivariana de Venezuela. 15. For example, a Turkish soap and detergent producer (Evyap) opened factories in Egypt and Ukraine and is planning to open one in Russia to escape uncompetitive

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labor costs at home and growing competitive pressures in these markets (IMF–World Bank 2005). Mauritius has received significant FDI in the textile and clothing sector but moved part of its production to lower-cost neighboring Madagascar and Mozambique in response to cost pressures from Asia (Goldstein 2003). 16. In June 2005, India’s Ranbaxy won approval to make lamivudine tablets for Africa under the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. 17. Examples of SOEs in other sectors include Telekom Malaysia, Eskom, and Transet of South Africa. 18. For example, South African SOEs have invested in Africa in part to promote the New Partnership for African Development (UNCTAD 2005a). 19. In July 2005, China’s CNPC was awarded four oil blocks in Nigeria in exchange for investing in the construction of a hydropower plant (“China Goes Shopping,” Financial Times, March 8-16, 2005). 20. SMEs have 1,000 or fewer employees (OECD 2005a). 21. Since 1998, the Tata Group has been selling a family sedan for $4,000 to $6,000. It announced plans to introduce a $2,000 car by 2008 (“Getting the Best to the Masses,” Business Week, October 11, 2004). 22. Positive spillovers are benefits that the domestic economy enjoys but does not pay for, due to the presence of foreign firms. Such benefits may include the availability of information and technology or the increased supply of trained workers (where, because of job mobility, the foreign firm does not capture the full return to training). 23. Some of these initiatives are the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, the OECD Convention Against Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Transactions, and various initiatives that promote transparency in the extractive industries. 24. A survey of 200 outward investors from Eastern Europe and Central Asia (Sevtlicic and Rojec 2003) showed that most companies that have invested abroad—mainly in other developing countries—increased exports and improved their financial performance. In India, outward investment enhanced the export performance of SMEs in manufacturing, compared with those that did not invest abroad (Prahdan 2005). 25. See The Banker (2005), Global Finance (2004 and 2005), Capital Intelligence (2004 and 2005), EIU Country Finance (2004 and 2005), Latin Finance (2005), and information posted on various bank Web sites. 26. Data reflect participation by nonlocal developingcountry banks in cross-border syndicated lending to borrowers based in developing countries (see annex 1). 27. This increase is due in part to the rise in the number of countries following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Seven of the former Soviet republics received syndicated lending in 2005. 28. Examples include the State Bank of India and Oman’s Bank Muscat. 29. In a sample of 1,143 cross-border syndicated loan transactions, local banks in eastern Europe accounted for 13 percent of the total loan amount, and local banks in Latin America for 16 percent (Nini 2004).

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30. A mandated lead arranger is a bank (or banks) responsible for originating, structuring, and syndicating a loan transaction. 31. This includes international transactions of the banks with any of their own affiliates and with Panama, an offshore center. Excluding Panama, cross-border lending originating from developing countries amounted to $77 billion in 2005 32. Foreign claims include cross-border loans by the bank’s head offices or its affiliates, and local loans by affiliates located in another country 33. Total assets are averaged over 2000-4. These numbers include offshore centers. Excluding FDI in and from offshore centers, developing-country banks hold 3 percent of foreign bank assets in developing countries. 34. The data for South Asia reflect banks domiciled in Mauritius (an offshore banking center), most of which owned by banks from high-income countries that have set up subsidiaries in India. 35. Excluding FDI to and from offshore centers, SubSaharan Africa shows the highest percentage of developing countries’ banks in total foreign bank entry (13.3 percent), followed by East Asia and the Pacific (10 percent), and the Middle East and North Africa (6.6 percent). In the other regions South-South activity accounts for less than 2 percent of FDI in the banking sector. 36. Some banks, such as India’s Bank of Baroda and the State Bank of India, Jordan’s Arab Bank, and the Bank of China have been active participants in cross-border syndicated transactions for borrowers outside their regions since at least 1985. 37. Examples include plans by a number of Kazakh banks to offer financial leasing services (a growing financial product geared to SMEs) in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Evidence on the kinds of financial services provided by developing-country banks can be found in Capital Intelligence (various country reports through the end of 2005), The Banker (various issues in 2005), and information provided on the banks’ Web sites. 38. This discussion is based on conversations with World Bank staff. 39. The prosecution was reported in Zambia News Online. http://www.africa.upenn.edu/Newsletters/zno24.html 40. Engberg (1975) saw a role for capital markets in raising domestic savings and contributing to their more efficient allocation, even in less developed economies. Engberg also argued that the broader range of financial assets associated with capital market development could raise personal savings rates. Levine (1990) showed that a stock market can positively impact growth by providing a means of trading the ownership of firms (shares) without disrupting the operating and productive processes within those firms and by providing a way for investors to diversify their portfolios. See also Demirgüc-Kunt and Maksimovic (1996); Boyd and Smith (1998); Levine and Zervos (1998); Arestis, Demetriades, and Luintel (2001). 41. The number of countries with a stock exchange is actually greater than 75, but several exchanges are inactive or have negligible trading activity.

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42. Forty-six of the 80 stock markets categorized as “emerging markets” in Standard & Poor’s Global Stock Markets Factbook 2005 had a market capitalization of $10 billion or less in October 2004. In contrast, just 3 of the 29 developed-economy stock exchanges had a market capitalization of $10 billion or less. Stock markets in many developing economies rival those in developed economies when viewed in terms of the ratio of market capitalization to gross national income, however. Market capitalization is only one factor in determining the relative level of development of a stock exchange (Standard & Poor’s 2005). 43. According to the IMF’s Asia-Pacific Outlook, September 2005, at least 95 percent of the listings on Asian national stock exchanges are local listings. 44. Indian firms issuing global depositary receipts (GDRs) on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange (citing cost, time, and marketing advantages) accounted for the majority (23) of the 42 total depositary receipts newly issued on the main depositary receipt listing markets in 2005 (the United States, the United Kingdom, and Luxembourg). The issuance of GDRs by developing-country firms may improve efficiency in the home market due to increased competitive pressures on standards, procedures, and operations, but it may also impose costs due to diversion of order flow abroad. The net impact on market liquidity and capitalization from cross-border listings may depend on the proportion of trading volume that shifts overseas, relative sizes of the home and overseas markets, and changes, following the cross-border listing, in the extent of home-market segmentation due to investment barriers and intermarket information transparency (Hargis and Ramanlal 1996; Hargis 1997; and Domowitz, Glen, and Madhavan, 1998). More recent research (Karolyi 2004) found that an increase in issues of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) by firms in an emerging market economy may be a result, rather than a cause, of deteriorating local market conditions. 45. More than 70 percent of the equities listed on the Namibia Stock Exchange (NSX) are dual listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, and the vast majority of NSX trading takes place in these dual listed stocks (Johannesburg Securities Exchange 2005). For a region-specific assessment of whether cooperation and integration of stock exchanges in southern and eastern Africa could offer a way of overcoming impediments to the development of these exchanges, see Irving (2005). 46. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. 47. Despite a significant amount of foreign investment in securities traded on the region’s two largest exchanges, in Brazil and Mexico, the vast majority of it comes from developed economies. 48. In October 2005 China Construction Bank, which had reportedly been considering a listing on the NYSE, opted instead to list on the Hong Kong, China exchange, with an IPO of $8 billion—China’s largest to date and the largest worldwide since 2001. In the past few years, the international financial press has contained numerous additional reports of firms domiciled in developing countries that have abandoned plans to list on the major U.S. exchanges and, to some extent, on the London Stock Exchange, because of more onerous listing requirements and associated higher costs. The European Union also has been taking steps to increase the stringency of

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its reporting and disclosure requirements for companies that list on EU stock exchanges, including through a transparency directive slated to take effect in 2006. 49. Although a Chilean firm issued new ADRs in 2005, this transaction was an exchange of existing depositary receipts due to a company merger. 50. The impact of South–South cross-border listings on developing countries’ stock exchanges is an important area for research, given the increasing number of agreements between developing countries’ stock exchanges that encourage cross-border listings and investment. 51. This would involve harmonizing not only stockmarket regulations, listing requirements, and procedures for trading, clearing, and settlement, but also transaction fees, accounting and disclosure standards, corporate governance standards, common standards for stockbrokers, and national rules for capital gains and withholding taxes. Such efforts, as well as the development of common infrastructure and systems, may have to address limitations in national markets, such as poor institutional capacity for enforcing regulations, rudimentary stock-market infrastructure, poor and unreliable access to information and communications technology, and exchanges at significantly different stages of development. A regional securities regulatory body would be essential if integration were to proceed to the point of forming a regional exchange. 52. For example, the South–South cross-border lending component of a qualifying syndicated loan (“loan A”) for a borrower in East Asia in 2005 that does not reveal loan-allocation details is estimated by multiplying the average share (15 percent) of nonlocal South–South lending in all qualifying transactions for East Asia that reveal loanallocation details by the total “loan A” transaction amount. A qualifying transaction is defined for this purpose as a syndicated loan disbursed to a borrower in a developing country, whereby one or more banks domiciled in other (nonlocal) developing countries participate in the syndicate. In cases where loan-allocation details are unavailable for all qualifying syndicated transactions in a particular region, as in Latin America in 1985 and 1995 and in the case of all regions in 1985 (with the exception of two transactions), the estimate is derived from an average of all transactions that provide loan-allocation data for the region in the time series. 53. Currently our sample does not include Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, or Panama.

References Aizenman, Joshua, and Ilan Noy. 2005. “FDI and Trade— Two Way Linkages?” NBER Working Paper 11403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Albuquerque, R., N. Loayza, and L. Servén, L. 2005. “World Market Integration through the Lens of Foreign Direct Investment.” Journal of International Economics 66 (2): 267–95. Amorim, Celso. 2005. “Brazil Redraws the Trade Map.” Global Agenda. http://www.globalagendamagazine.com/ 2005/celsoamorim.asp.

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Arestis, Philip, Panicos Demetriades, and Kul Luintel. 2001. “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 33: 16–41. Aykut, Dilek, and Dilip Ratha. 2004. “South–South FDI Flows: How Big Are They?” Transnational Corporations 13 (1). Baldwin, Robert, and L. Alan Winters, eds. 2004. Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Banga, Rashmi. 2003. “Impact of Government Policies and Investment Agreements on FDI Flows.” Working Paper 116, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi. Bank for International Settlements. 2005. BIS Quarterly Review (June). Boyd, J., and B. D. Smith. 1998. “The Evolution of Debt and Equity Markets in Economic Development.” Economic Theory 12: 519–60. Brealey, R., and E. C. Kaplanis. 1996. “The Determination of Foreign Banking Location.” Journal of International Money and Finance 15: 577–97. Buch, Claudia M., and Gayle Delong. 2004. “Cross-Border Bank Mergers: What Lures the Rare Animal?” Journal of Banking and Finance 28: 2077–102. Capital Intelligence. Various years. “Country Banking Reports.” http://www.ciratings.com/. Caballero, R. 2002. “Coping with Chile’s External Vulnerability: A Financial Problem.” Unpublished paper, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. Chudnovsky, Daniel, and Andres Lopez. 2000. “A Third Wave from Developing Countries: Latin American TNCs in the 1990s.” Transnational Corporations 9 (2). Claessens, Stijn, Asli Demirgüc-Kunt, and Harry Huizinga. 2001. “How Does Foreign Entry Affect Domestic Banking Markets?” Journal of Banking and Finance 25: 891–911. Claessens, Stijn, and Neeltje Van Horen. 2006. “Location decisions of foreign banks and competitive advantage.” Unpublished paper. World Bank, Washington, DC. Crystal, J., G. Dages, and L. Goldberg. 2001. “Does Foreign Ownership Contribute to Sounder Banks in Emerging Markets? The Latin American Experience.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports 137, New York. Demirgüc-Kunt, A., and V. Maksimovic. 1996. “Stock Market Development and Firm Financing Choices.” World Bank Economic Review 10: 341–70. De Sol, Patricio. 2005. “Why Join a Chilean Firm to Invest Elsewhere in Latin America?” Unpublished paper, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. http://www.ingenieriaindustrial.cl/documentos/182.pdf Domowitz, Ian, Jack Glen, and Ananth Madhavan. 1998. “International Cross-Listing and Order Flow Migration: Evidence from an Emerging Market.” Journal of Finance 53 (December): 2001–27. EIU (Economist Intelligence Unit). Various dates. “Country Finance Reports.” http://www.eiu.com. ———. 2005. “Country Report for Iraq.” September. Elteto, Andrea, and Antaloczy Katalin. 2003. “Outward Foreign Direct Investments from Poland.” In Facilitating

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Transition by Internalization: Outward Direct Investment from Central European Countries in Transition, ed. M. Svetlicic and M. Rojec. Aldershot, Hampshire, UK: Ashgate. Engberg, H. L. 1975. “The Nairobi Stock Exchange: An Organized Capital Market in a Developing Country.” Journal of Management Studies 8. Erdilek, Asim. 2005. “Case Study on Outward FDI by Enterprises from Turkey.” Background paper for UNCTAD conference on “Enhancing the Productive Capacity of Developing Country Firms through Internationalization,” Geneva, December 5–7. FIAS (Foreign Investment Advisory Service). 2005. “Survey of Chinese MNCs.” International Finance Corporation, Foreign Investment Advisory Service, Washington, DC. Financial Times. 2004. “Chinese Companies Acquire a Taste of Western Targets.” October 19, 2004 Focarelli, D., and A. Pozzolo. 2000. “The Determinants of Cross-Border Bank Shareholdings: An Analysis with Bank-Level Data from OECD Countries.” Proceedings (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, May): 199–232. Galindo, Arturo, Alejandro Micco, and Cesar Serra. 2003. “Better the Devil That You Know: Evidence on Entry Costs Faced by Foreign Banks.” IADB Working Paper 477, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC. Giroud, Axele. 2005. “Chinese Outward FDI.” Background paper for UNCTAD conference on “Enhancing the Productive Capacity of Developing Country Firms through Internationalization,” Geneva, December 5–7. Global Finance. Various issues. http://www.gfmag.com. Goldstein Andrea. 2004. Regional Integration, FDI, and Competitiveness in Southern Africa. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. ———. Forthcoming. Emerging Multinationals in the Global Economy: Data Trends, Policy Issues, and Research Questions. London: Palgrave Macmillan. Goldstein, Andrea, Nicolas Pinaud, Helmut Reisen, and Michael-Xiaobao Chen. 2006. “The Rise of China and India: What Is in It for Africa?” Development Center Paper, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Grosse, R., and L. G. Goldberg. 1991. “Foreign Bank Activity in the United States: An Analysis by Country of Origin.” Journal of Banking and Finance 15: 1092–1112. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary. 2003. “Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Attract Foreign Direct Investment? Only a Bit—and They Could Bite.” Policy Research Working Paper 3121, World Bank, Washington, DC. Hargis, K. 1997. “ADRs in Emerging Equity Markets: Market Integration or Fragmentation?” Working Paper D97-17, Center for International Business Education and Research, University of South Carolina, Columbia. Hargis, K., and P. Ramanlal, 1998. “When Does Internationalization Enhance the Development of Domestic Stock Markets?” Journal of Financial Intermediation 7 (3): 263–92. ICICI Bank. 2005. http://www.icicibank.com. IDB (Inter-American Development Bank). 2002. Beyond Borders: The New Regionalism in Latin-America. Washington, DC: Johns Hopkins University Press.

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IFC (International Finance Corporation). 1991. “Financing Corporate Growth in the Developing World.” IFC Discussion Paper 12, International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2005. “Asia-Pacific Outlook.” Washington, DC. September. IMF–World Bank. 2005. “FDI Monitoring Working Project—interviews with major investors both from developing and developed countries.” Irving, Jacqueline. 2005. “Regional Integration of Stock Exchanges in Eastern and Southern Africa: Progress and Prospects.” IMF Working Paper 122, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Johannesburg Securities Exchange. “Dual Listed Company Information.” http://www.jse.co.za. Kabelwa, George. 2004. “Technology Transfer and South African Investment in Tanzania.” Globalisation and East Africa Working Paper 10, Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam. Karolyi, A. 2004. “The Role of American Depositary Receipts in the Development of Emerging Equity Markets.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86: 670–90. Latin Finance. 2005. “Daily Briefs.” http://www.latinfinance.com. Levine, Ross. 1990. “Stock Markets, Growth, and Policy.” Working Paper 484, World Bank, Washington, DC. ———. 1996. “Foreign Banks, Financial Development, and Economic Growth.” In International Financial Markets, ed. E. B. Claude. Washington, DC: AEI Press. Levine, Ross, and Sara Zervos, 1998. “Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth.” American Economic Review 88: 537–58. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo, Panizza Ugo, and Ernesto Stein. 2002. “The Cyclical Nature of North–South FDI Flows.” Business School Working Paper 15, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires. Lisitsyn, Nikita, Sergi F. Sutyrin, Olga Y. Trofimenko, and Irina V. Vorobieva. 2005. “Outward Internationalisation of Russian Leading Telecom Companies.” Electronic Publications of Pan-European Institute 1/2005, Turku School of Economics and Business Administration, Turku, Finland. http://www.tukkk.fi/pei Mathews, John. 2005. “Enhancing Productive Capacity of Developing Country Firms through Internationalization.” Discussion paper for UNCTAD conference on “Enhancing the Productive Capacity of Developing Country Firms through Internationalization,” Geneva, December 5–7. Mirza, Hafiz. 2000. “The Globalization Business and East Asian Developing Country Multinationals.” In The Globalalization of Multinational Enterprise Activity and Economic Development, ed. Neil Hood and Stephen Young. New York: St. Martin’s Press. Narlikar, Amrita, and Diana Tussie. 2004. “The G-20 at the Cancun Ministerial: Developing Countries and Their Evolving Coalitions in the WTO.” World Economy 27 (7): 947–1148. Nini, Greg. 2004. “The Value of Financial Intermediaries: Empirical Evidence from Syndicated Loans to Emerging Market Borrowers.” U.S. Federal Reserve International Finance Discussion Paper 820, Washington, DC.

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OECD 2005a. “Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, and Local Development.” http://www.oecd.org/department/0,2688,en_2649_33956792_1_1_1_1_1,00.html. ———. 2005b. “Corporate Responsibility Practices of Emerging Market Companies—A Fact-Finding Study.” OECD, Paris. Oil & Gas Journal Special Report. 2001. http://www.ogj.com Padayachee, Vishnu, and Imraan Valodia. 1999. “Malaysian Investment in South Africa.” Journal of Contemporary African Studies 17. Portes, R., and H. Rey. 2005. “The Determinants of CrossBorder Equity Flows.” Journal of International Economics 65 (2): 269–96. Pradhan, Java Prakash. 2005. “Outward Foreign Direct Investments from India: Recent Trends and Patterns.” Unpublished paper, Centre for the Study of Regional Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Rakner, L., N. van de Walle, and D. Mulaisho. 1999. Zambia. Washington, DC: World Bank. Schiff, Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga. 2002. “North–South and South–South Trade-Related Technology Diffusion: An Industry-Level Analysis.” Policy Research Working Paper 2861, Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC. Svetlicic, Marjan, and Matija Rojec. 2003. Facilitating Transition by Internalization: Outward Direct Investment from Central European Countries in Transition. Aldershot, Hampshire, UK: Ashgate. Shah, Ajay, and Ila Patnaik. 2005 “India’s Experience with Capital Flows: The Elusive Quest for a Sustainable Current Account Deficit.” NBER Working Paper 11387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Standard & Poor’s. 2005. Global Stock Markets Factbook. New York: Standard & Poor’s. ———. Various dates. Emerging Stock Markets Review. State Bank of India. 2005. “In the News.” http://www.statebankofindia.com. Stein, E., and C. Daude. 2001. “Institutions, Integration, and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment.” Unpublished paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department, Washington, DC. Sull, Donlad, and Martin Escobari. 2004. “Creating Value in an Unpredictable World.” Business Strategy Review 15 (3): 14–20. Swenson, D. L. 2004. “Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows.” Review of International Economics 12 (4): 609–29. The Banker. Various issues in 2005. http://www.thebanker.com/. Tobin, Jennifer, and Susan Rose-Ackerman. 2005. “Foreign Direct Investment and the Business Environment in Developing Countries: The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties.” Research Paper 293, Yale Law Centre for Law, Economics and Public Policy, New Haven, CT. UNCTAD. 1998. World Investment Report 1998. Geneva: UNCTAD. ———. 2003. “China: An Emerging FDI Outward Investor.” Geneva: UNCTAD. ———. 2004. World Investment Report—2004.” Geneva: UNCTAD.

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5 Challenges in Managing Capital Flows

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he surging flows of international private capital and favorable global economic environment present a significant opportunity for developing countries, particularly for the middle-income countries that are the major recipients of capital flows. These and other countries that have embraced sound macroeconomic fundamentals, open international trade, and financial integration must now find ways to leverage their gains, while building an institutional and policy environment that will maintain the confidence of investors and insulate the economy from external shocks. Few policy decisions would appear as important to future growth and financial stability as those capable of preventing a recurrence of the market and policy failures of the 1990s. Although initial conditions point to better management of capital flows this time around, significant downside risks remain. At an annual average growth rate of 5.4 percent over the past four years (2002–5), economic activity in developing economies has expanded more than twice as fast as in high-income countries. And as authorities have increasingly adopted price stability—often in the context of inflation targeting—as an integral part of their macroeconomic management, inflation has fallen dramatically in virtually all developing countries, from an annual median of 11.5 percent during 1993–6 to 4.5 percent during 2002–5. At the same time, greater autonomy in monetary policy, afforded by the widespread transition to flexible exchange rates, has allowed authorities to lower local interest rates, which, in many developing countries, are now converging to international levels. With lower local interest rates and greater exchange rate flexibility, the incentive to resort to short-term external

borrowing has been reduced, thereby addressing a major policy failure that accompanied the capital surge of the mid-1990s. These positive developments do not come without risk. Progress in macroeconomic stabilization and reform since the Asian financial crisis has not been fully matched by improvements in corporate governance; in many countries, adherence to global standards and norms is still a work in progress. Many countries still lack adequate capacity to manage risks associated with managed-float exchange rate regimes and partially liberalized capital markets. The large buildup of official foreign exchange reserves by many countries, particularly in Asia, has resulted in a high concentration of currency and interest rate risks on central banks’ balance sheets, with potentially adverse fiscal consequences. On the international front, growing uncertainty about the sustainability of the current pattern of global capital flows, in which developing countries export capital to the rest of the world, particularly the United States, constitutes a major vulnerability in international capital markets. The current episode of strong capital flows to developing economies coincided initially with a considerable easing of monetary policy in industrial countries; that period came to an end in the United States in mid-2004 and in the Euro Area more recently. Rising interest rates in the industrialized world may keep some investors closer to home. This chapter highlights the implications of recent changes in the macroeconomic and financial environment for policy makers in developing countries. It also maps out broad strategies for managing the influx of capital to serve long-term growth and development objectives. Given the differences among developing countries in their stage

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of economic development, and the considerable variation in the amount and impact of different kinds of private flows, policy makers will necessarily be guided by country-specific considerations in determining the course of policy. But overall, the three core dimensions of managing capital flows at the current juncture are likely to be (i) ensuring macroeconomic stability and sustaining the confidence of investors so that access to international capital markets is sustained and enhanced; (ii) implementing appropriate policies and riskmanagement strategies to encourage allocation of capital to long-term investment and growth; and (iii) designing appropriate safeguards to enhance resilience through self-insurance and adherence to global norms and standards. The key messages emerging from the analysis presented in this chapter are: •

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Policy responses in the current period of increased capital inflows have differed in important respects from those that prevailed during the previous boom in the mid-1990s. Governments have generally managed to avoid excessive expansion of aggregate demand and large current-account deficits. Their policies have supported modest allocations of foreign capital resources to domestic investment, although the major chunk has been used to build up foreign exchange reserves. So far, fewer countries have seen their real exchange rate appreciate than during the 1990s boom. In many countries, investment rates have not yet risen to the peaks they reached before the East Asian crisis. In Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, for example, investment rates remain lower than precrisis levels by 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP. At the same time, the surge in portfolio inflows has been associated with a dramatic escalation of stock market prices and valuations in many developing countries, particularly in Asia, raising the risk of asset price bubbles—and of reversals of capital flows should those bubbles burst. For oil-importing countries, higher oil prices and the consequent adjustment in the current-account balance have partly offset the impact of strong capital inflows. That many developing countries have accumulated foreign exchange reserves far in excess of the level required for intervention and

•

liquidity purposes reflects in part a clear proclivity to self-insure against global financial shocks. As the volume of reserves increases, however, so does the importance of balancing their use for intervention and insurance purposes against their domestic resource costs. Allowing local institutional investors to diversify their investment portfolio globally, while ensuring more effective regulation, could provide a viable channel of capital outflow, as well as an opportunity to further diversify risk. Further, permitting such investments would have the effect of transferring foreign exchange rate risks, currently concentrated on the books of central banks, to domestic institutional investors that have a long investment horizon and can benefit from a more diversified international portfolio. Moreover, opening up a channel for capital outflows would also help to avoid the excessive exchange rate appreciations that can result from surges in capital flows. As developing countries become more open to international financial markets, designing and building a sound regime of external financial policy making and regulation presents an urgent challenge. A consensus has formed around the three core components of such a new regime—membership in a credible currency union, such as the European Union, or an exchange rate that reflects market forces; gradual opening of the capital account; and a monetary policy framework that favors price stability. These elements are present to varying degrees in many developing countries involved in private capital markets. Roughly one-half of developing countries are now operating under a floating exchange rate regime (free or managed), while the 11 new and aspiring members of the European Union are taking steps to peg their currencies to the euro. Priority now must be given to two points. First, the complex web of capital controls and exchange rate restrictions that persists in many countries should be simplified and, as macroeconomic policies improve and local capital markets develop, eased gradually over time. During the transition, curbs on short-term debt inflows may need to be maintained, or even strengthened, while restrictions on outflows are eased. Second, authorities must build a system of risk manage-

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•

•

ment robust enough to respond to the needs of a more flexible exchange rate and open capital account. The development and partial application of a set of international norms and standards on transparency, corporate governance, and regulation and supervision of national financial systems has helped increase the confidence of foreign investors in emerging market economies. To promote stability and maintain a financial environment conducive to a balanced expansion and deployment of capital flows in developing countries, the international community must be assiduous in promoting the further application of those norms and standards. The world economy is moving toward a multipolar international monetary system in which policy interactions among the major industrial countries of the G-3—and with key emerging market economies—will be essential in securing an orderly adjustment of the prevailing global imbalances in external payments. One effect of inclusive interactions would be to lessen market anxiety over the course of global interest rates and capital flows. Emerging market economies, which would suffer disproportionately from the instability induced by a disorderly adjustment, share with the industrial countries the desire for a multilateral approach that will include corrective actions in deficit and surplus countries alike. In addition, policy makers in emerging market economies should take advantage of the opportunity presented by the current benign global financial market environment to build institutions and mechanisms that will enable them to navigate their economies in a world of increasingly open capital accounts and marketbased exchange rates.

Two booms in capital flows—what has changed?

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he present surge in capital flows to developing countries differs substantially from the previous episode in the mid-1990s. Greater global economic and financial integration, improved domestic macroeconomic conditions, and sounder domestic policies and institutions have enhanced the capacity of policy makers to deal with infusions of private capital. Compared with the situa-

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tion in the 1990s, many developing countries today have significantly lower external debt burdens, fewer currency mismatches in their debt structures, higher reserves of foreign exchange, a more flexible exchange rate regime, and more open capital accounts. But the benign external environment in which these improvements were made may become less so in the next few years, as the major industrial countries tighten their monetary policy and as markets come to reassess their views and expectations regarding the evolution of global interest rates and capital flows. Since the early 1990s, developing countries have experienced two episodes of heavy influx of private capital. The first, occurring in the middle of the past decade (1992–7), resulted in an increase in capital inflows from 3.2 percent of developing countries’ aggregate GDP in 1992 to 5.1 percent in 1997. The second began in 2002 and continues to date. So far, it has brought a cumulative total of $1,316 billion in capital to the developing world (approximately $350 billion annually averaged over 2002–5). This last episode has led to an increase in private capital flows from 2.8 percent of developing countries’ aggregate GDP in 2002 to 5.1 percent in 2005. The macroeconomic consequences and policy responses associated with the previous surge have been explored in a large body of academic literature (Johnson and others 2000; Radelet and Sachs 1998; Corsetti, Pesenti, and Roubini 1998). The data from that period reveal several interesting patterns for developing countries that had access to international capital markets: a considerable acceleration in economic growth, a rise of two percentage points in the ratio of investment to GDP, and a considerable and widespread appreciation of national currencies in real terms (19 percent). Moreover, about one-third of the inflowing capital was allocated to the accumulation of official reserves of foreign exchange, which rose, in aggregate, from $216 billion at the end of 1992 to $572 billion at the end of 1997. These facts provide a good point of comparison for the current influx in private capital to developing countries. Looking at the cross-country distribution of capital inflows during current episode (see figure 5.1), 67 percent of developing countries received private flows within the range of 2 to 10 percent of their GDP, and a further 16 percent received capital flows of more than 10 percent of their

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Figure 5.1 Distribution of private capital flows across developing countries, 2002–4 No. of countries 35 Mean = 4.4 Median = 3.0 SD = 5.5 Skew = 1.4

30 25

•

20 15 10 5 0 –4.5

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Private capital flows as a percenta ge of GDP

•

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates. Note: 134 developing countries for which we had data were used. Private capital flows to GDP were averaged over the 3 years.

GDP. The correlation between capital inflows and per capita income is positive but relatively low (0.18), reflecting the fact that many low–income countries also have attracted private capital flows, including The Gambia, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Vietnam. The Asian financial crises of the mid-1990s provide a cautionary example of the potential macroeconomic effect on recipient countries of large capital inflows. At that time, inflows generated a sequence of currency misalignment, asset price escalation, excessive expansion of aggregate demand, inflationary pressures, current-account imbalances, capital losses on central banks’ balance sheets, and financial instability—a calamitous chain of events that affected individual countries in very different ways. A large body of theoretical and empirical research over the past decade has attempted to identify confluences of global financialmarket conditions and specific developing-country characteristics that could lead to a recurrence of that sequence (World Bank 1997; Calvo and others 1996; Edwards 2001; Chinn and Ito 2002; Kletzer and Spiegel 2004). That literature, combined with recent experience, points to five important trends, domestic and global, distinguishing the present cresting of capital flows from the previous episode: •

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The pattern of private capital flows to developing countries has changed in two important respects: first, the share of short-term debt in

•

•

total debt flows has declined for virtually all major debtors, particularly in crisis-affected countries; second, the composition of flows has rotated toward equity, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI). The shift toward more flexible exchange rate regimes has helped overcome a major policy failure underlying the financial crises of the 1990s. That shift, in conjunction with improved macroeconomic conditions, has facilitated a continued process of relaxation or removal of formal controls on many capital-account transactions in many developing countries, despite the severity and global nature of the 1997 financial crisis. The current account in many developing countries, particularly major oil exporters and emerging Asia, has moved from deficit to sizable surplus, contributing to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. The initial impetus came from countries’ strenuous external adjustments to the crises of the 1990s, but high commodity prices, robust global growth over the past few years and intervention to maintain undervalued exchange rates for the purposes of export competitiveness have sustained and, in some cases, amplified the effect. These developments have combined to improve the external debt burdens of developing countries, as debt/export ratios and debt/GDP ratios have declined since their peaks in 1997–8. The accelerated development of local bond markets in many countries after the crises of the 1990s has been helpful to the development of a more balanced financial structure, reducing dependence on the banking sector and short-term foreign capital as sources of financing. The presence of a well-functioning government bond market facilitates the conduct of monetary policy through open market operations and helps improve debt management. (This development is discussed in chapter 2.) External changes that are likely to affect the climate for capital flows include the euro’s growing role as a major international reserve currency, which widens policy makers’ choices. Higher international interest rates and likely volatility in exchange rates, by contrast, will constrain policy making. The long and aggressive phase of monetary easing that started

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in the United States in 2001 came to an end in June 2004, with the Euro Area following suit a few months later. (See Chapter 1.)

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Figure 5.2 Composition of financial flows to developing countries, 1992–7 and 2002–5 Billions of current $ 400

The first three of those trends are discussed below.

Debt Portfolio equity 300

33%

FDI

The composition of capital flows is changing The composition of private foreign capital flowing to developing countries during the current surge has shifted decisively toward equity, predominantly FDI. The shift reflects government policies that encourage equity and aim to reduce dependence on external borrowing. Thus, on average, FDI accounts for 57 percent of private capital flows to developing countries (figure 5.2), much higher than portfolio equity (9 percent) and higher even than short- and long-term bank debt combined (33 percent). In the mid-1990s, by contrast, the same figures were 47 percent for FDI, 11 percent for portfolio equity, and 42 percent for debt. The trend toward equity in the composition of private capital flows has been particularly pronounced in the two regions (Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific) that were most directly affected by the string of financial crises in the 1990s. Greater reliance on equity financing also improves countries’ external liability profile, because equity flows are more focused on long-term economic prospects and offer better risk-sharing characteristics than debt flows. Moreover, FDI tends to be more stable than debt, in the sense that current FDI is strongly correlated to its past levels; the coefficient of persistence of FDI, using a simple autoregressive estimation for a sample of developing countries, is found to be on average 0.62, while it is 0.52 on debt (both short and long term).1 An indication of the improvement brought about by the changing composition of capital flows is the significant reduction in the ratio of external debt to gross national income (GNI) for developing countries as a whole—from a peak of 44 percent in 1999 to about 34 percent in 2004—and particularly for countries in East Asia and Latin America. In Europe and Central Asia, however, the ratios remain relatively high compared with those seen in the early 1990s. A further sign of improved external liability positions in the developing world can be found in the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short-

9%

200

42% 11%

100

57%

47% 0 1992–7

2002–5

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

Figure 5.3 Ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short-term debt, by region Ratio of reserves to ST debt 8

1992 –7

7

2002 –5 6 5 4 3 2 1

0 All

East Asia & Pacific

Europe & Central Asia

Latin America & Caribbean

Source: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

term debt. Developing countries as a group are now much better equipped than previously to deal with the potential volatility of private capital flows. Looking at reserve holdings on a regional basis, each of the regions holds in the form of reserves at least 1.5 times their short-term debt (figure 5.3). The ratio is particularly high in East Asia (8.3), largely because of China, whose accumulated reserves are 38 times greater than its shortterm debt. The rising ratio of reserves to shortterm debt reflects not only the spike in reserve holdings, but also the decline in short-term debt as a percentage of total debt in most developing countries since the mid-1990s (table 5.1). The rotation towards equity and reduced reliance on short-term debt flows have significant policy implications for the management of capital

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flows to developing countries, as they enhance the scope for monetary policy autonomy. Equity flows, in contrast to debt flows, tend to move countercyclically with local interest rates, increasing during periods of low domestic interest rates due to the positive impact of low interest rates on domestic growth and corporate profitability and valuation. The classical Mundell-Fleming model (Mundell 1963, Fleming 1962) of the open economy and the implied impossible trinity—that countries can pursue only two of the three objectives of fixed exchange rates, free capital mobility, and independent monetary policy—is predicated on the assumption that capital inflows are composed predominately of short-term debt. In an equity dominated pattern of capital flows, authorities have more autonomy in pursuing interest rate policies geared toward domestic goals.

Countries now have more flexible exchange rates and more open capital accounts Policies on exchange rates and capital controls are particularly important for developing countries, because external developments have a greater effect on domestic inflation, monetary transmission, and financial stability in developing countries than in industrial countries. Most developing countries are already more open to international trade in goods and services than are developed countries: from 2002 to 2004, developing countries’ trade averaged 54.5 percent of GDP, compared to 39 percent in developed countries. But developing countries as a group also face a potentially higher degree of volatility in capital flows, and changes in the exchange rate may translate more quickly into domestic inflation than in developed countries.2 Even with their recent progress in launching local-currency debt issues on global markets (see Chapter 2), developing countries still have much larger shares of their external debt denominated in foreign currencies than do industrial countries (Eichengreen and Hausmann 1999; Hawkins and Turner 2000). Such conditions predispose an economy to greater vulnerability to external financial shocks. Virtually all capital flow–related financial crises of the 1990s involved a fixed peg or crawling band exchange rate regime and considerable currency mismatch on the balance sheets of both public and private borrowers (Fischer 2001; Goldstein 2002). When countries maintain such exchange rate regimes (fixed pegs or crawling

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Table 5.1 Ratio of short-term debt to total debt in major borrowing countries, 1996–2004 Percent Short-term debt/total debt Country

1996

2004

Change

China Poland Czech Rep. Russian Fed. Hungary Venezuela, R. B. de Egypt Algeria India Turkey Argentina Nigeria Pakistan Malaysia Colombia Indonesia Chile Brazil Philippines Mexico South Africa Peru Thailand Averagea

19.7 6.1 28.5 9.5 12.3 7.9 7.4 1.0 7.2 21.7 21.2 18.1 9.4 27.9 20.4 25.0 25.7 19.8 18.1 19.1 41.6 22.2 42.3 18.8

47.2 17.0 37.5 17.8 19.5 12.2 9.7 2.0 6.1 19.7 16.2 12.8 3.5 21.9 14.2 17.4 17.5 11.4 8.3 6.6 27.8 8.0 22.4 16.4

27.5 10.9 9.0 8.4 7.2 4.3 2.3 1.0 –1.1 –2.0 –4.9 –5.3 –6.0 –6.0 –6.2 –7.6 –8.2 –8.4 –9.8 –12.5 –13.8 –14.2 –19.9 –2.4

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff estimates. Note: Major borrowing countries, based on the average volume of total debt stock over the period of 1996–2004 (in descending order). a. Excluding South Africa.

bands), investors and borrowers may believe there is less need to hedge currency movements, and the risk of borrowing in foreign currency appears to be reduced, encouraging excessive exposure. However, if a crisis does hit, and the central bank cannot maintain the peg or band, the costs to the banking system and corporate sector can be substantial and damaging. Partly due to this experience, several developing countries have adopted greater exchange rate flexibility, moving to a variety of managed-float regimes, with central banks retaining the ability to intervene in the market to influence the exchange rate and limit volatility. Since the early 1990s, nearly 50 developing countries have abandoned fixed or crawling pegs in favor of managed floats or fully flexible exchange rates (figure 5.4). Notable examples are Mexico (1994), Indonesia (1997), Colombia (1999), Brazil (1999), Chile (1999), and the Russian Federation (2002). In July 2005, the Bank Negara Malaysia adopted a man-

C H A L L E N G E S

Figure 5.4 Changes in exchange rate flexibility, 1991–2004

Sources: IMF Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions and World Bank staff estimates.

aged float for the ringgit with reference to a currency basket and the People’s Bank of China revalued the renminbi and announced that it would be determined with reference to a currency basket. Evidence also suggests that many developing countries pursuing a managed float are tolerating a greater degree of short-term fluctuation in their currencies.3 Figure 5.5 displays the frequency distribution of daily percentage changes in the bilateral exchange rates of currencies in several crisisaffected countries against the U.S. dollar during the current and previous surges in capital flows. The left panel shows movements during the 1990s surge; the right panel shows current movements. The bell-shaped daily fluctuations in exchange rates in the current episode indicate two-way movements in bilateral exchange rates. Successful management and operation of a flexible exchange rate regime requires proper policy frameworks, market microstructure, and institutions to ensure smooth functioning of foreign exchange markets. Policy decisions must be made about whether to rely on interest rates and intervention to stabilize exchange rates at times of high volatility or uncertainty. Such decisions require an assessment of the underlying sources of exchange rate volatility, which in the context of many developing countries often implies gauging the sustainability of capital flows. For example, policy makers might ask whether a surge in capital flows was composed primarily of volatile portfolio capital or speculative debt, on the one hand, or more stable and predictable FDI flows, on the other. When

I N

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C A P I T A L

F L O W S

pressure on the exchange rate stems from temporary shocks or volatile capital flows, intervention and interest rates, singly or in combination, should be considered as tools to limit short-run exchange rate fluctuations. There are institutional and microstructure requirements associated with managing a flexible exchange rate regime. The key steps involve the development of local money, capital, and cross-border derivatives markets to provide the necessary depth, sophistication, and hedging possibilities for managing currency risk, thereby providing stability for private agents and the economy as a whole.

Real exchange rate appreciation has been mild A significant, sustained, and rapid appreciation in a country’s real exchange rate is one of the precursors of a currency crisis.4 Figure 5.6 shows the movements in real effective exchange rates in two of the regions that experienced some of the largest exchange rate corrections during the crises of the 1990s. The appreciation in real exchange rates in the last few years has been much milder than during that period. Latin America shows stronger appreciation over 2004–5 than does East Asia. Looking at some individual countries, the real exchange rate appreciated in 60 percent of developing countries over the period 1993–6, while only about one-third experienced an appreciation in 2002–4. Moreover, the range of appreciations during the second surge has been significantly smaller (figure 5.7).5

Easing of capital controls Since the 1990s, the shift to floating exchange rates, the convergence of the currencies of Eastern Europe toward the euro, and the deepening of local capital markets have enabled many developing countries to ease capital controls and foreign exchange restrictions. Progress in formulating and implementing such liberalization measures across developing countries has been uneven, however, as countries have moved at different paces and with different degrees of rigor (see box 5.1). The clearest trend is in the liberalization of exchange rate restrictions. The number of countries that declared their currencies convertible on the current account, which often precedes capital-account convertibility, rose from approximately 62 in 1990 (or 40 percent of the IMF’s membership) to 164 in 2004 (or almost 90 percent of the IMF’s membership).

145

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 5.5 Frequency distribution of daily percentage changes in exchange rates for selected developing countries, 1993–6 vs. 2003–5

Sources: Bloomberg data service and World Bank staff calculations. Note: The figures show the frequency distribution of daily percentage changes in the exchange rate between local currency and U.S. dollars. Increases in the exchange rate represent depreciations against the U.S. dollar, and decreases represent appreciation.

146

C H A L L E N G E S

Figure 5.6 Movements in real effective exchange rates in East Asia and Latin America, 1993–2005 1990 = 100; regional GDP weights

145 135 125 115 East Asia & Pacific

105 95 85 75 1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff calculations.

F L O W S

South Africa Mexico Argentina Rep. of Korea Indonesia Thailand Hungary Croatia Malaysia Romania India Slovak Rep. Philippines Czech Rep. Turkey Poland Chile Brazil Latvia Bulgaria China Estonia Lithuania Russian Fed. –25

Three trends stand out in the liberalization of capital-account transactions:

•

C A P I T A L

1994–7 Latin America & Caribbean

155

•

M A N A G I N G

Figure 5.7 Real exchange rates for selected countries that receive higher-than-average private capital inflows as a ratio to GDP, 1994–7 and 2002–5

165

•

I N

The easing or removal of quantitative restrictions on residents’ issuance of securities, including debt, and outward FDI by private resident entities The relaxation of limits on nonresidents’ access to local money and securities markets The reduction or elimination of taxes on capital-account transactions.

In Chile, for example, the limit on outbound foreign investment by private pension funds was increased in 2003–4 from 16 to 30 percent, enabling local investors to hold diversified portfolios despite the small size of local capital markets. In Malaysia and Thailand, approved domestic institutional investors may now invest up to 10 percent of their assets abroad. In the Republic of Korea, residents are encouraged to invest in overseas mutual funds to mitigate the impact of foreign inflows. And in India, new measures have relaxed overseas investment restrictions on banks and mutual funds, allowing banks to invest in money market and debt instruments abroad and raising from $500 million to $1 billion the limit on mutual funds’ investments in companies listed abroad. In Brazil this year, foreign investors were exempted from a 15 percent withholding tax on local government debt investments.

–15

–5 5 5 Average annual % change

25

2002–5 Argentina China Mexico Malaysia Latvia Philippines Poland India Thailand Lithuania Chile Croatia Estonia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Brazil Rep. of Korea Romania Indonesia Hungary Russian Fed. South Africa Slovak Rep. Turkey –25

–15

–5 5 Average annual % change

5

25

Sources: Bank for International Settlements and World Bank staff estimates.

Many countries with open capital accounts have floating exchange rates The growing group of developing countries that are considered relatively open to capital movements appears in table 5.2. A variety of indices of financial openness were used to compile the list (Chinn and 2002; Miniane 2004; Edwards 2005; Quinn 1997; and Brune and others 2001). The countries in the table all have achieved currency

147

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F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Box 5.1 Preconditions for capital-account liberalization

B

y the early 1990s, under the Code of Liberalization of Capital Movements of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developed countries had moved to open their capital accounts fully to cross-border financial transactions, including capitalmarket securities, money-market operations, and derivatives instruments. Developing countries, by contrast, have continued to maintain, though in varying degrees, a wide range of administrative capital controls and foreign exchange restrictions. Capital-account regulation ranges from quantitative limitations on certain transactions (or on associated transfers of funds) to indirect measures intended to influence the economic incentives of engaging in certain transactions (IMF various years; Dailami 2000; and Eichengreen 2001). Although country circumstances vary, controls generally have three goals: to discourage short-term external debt flows in favor of longer-term investments, such as FDI (a motivation that gained momentum after the East Asian crises); to enhance monetary autonomy and exchange rate stability; and to allow time for the establishment of an institutional and policy framework within which capital-account liberalization will be successful (Rodrik 1999; Stiglitz 2002).

The liberalization of capital accounts must be accompanied by sound economic policies and institutions, so that governments are prepared to deal with the volatility inherent in capital markets. The preconditions for a safe transition to a more open capital account in most developing countries include a track record of fiscal prudence and stability (specifically, low inflation and a low fiscal deficit), a deep and well-regulated financial system, and adequate levels of reserves to provide the necessary buffer against adverse external shocks. Against such a backdrop, a deliberate and sequenced opening will signal to financial markets the government’s commitment to sound finance, thereby contributing to more stable capital flows. Once capital-account liberalization has progressed, it is very costly to reverse, and the reinstitution of capital controls should be considered a last resort, appropriate only when alternative policy options have been exhausted. Even then, authorities would have to consider the reputational costs of invoking controls and carefully assess the likelihood that the controls would meet their declared objectives in today’s large and rapidly changing global financial environment (Goldfajn and Minella 2005; Edwards 2005; Carvalho and Garcia 2005).

convertibility on the current account of the balance of payments—but they maintain some controls on capital-account transactions. The table also reports on three other aspects of these countries’ external financial profile: exchange rate regime, monetary policy framework, and the number of years that currency convertibility on current accounts (signifying acceptance of IMF Article VIII) has been in effect. It also indicates whether there exists an offshore nondeliverable foreign exchange forward market (NDF)6 for each currency. Most countries that are largely open to capitalaccount transactions maintain a flexible exchange rate arrangement. This affords policy makers a degree of autonomy in setting interest rates to achieve price stability, something particularly desirable for countries such as Brazil, Chile, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand, which have adopted inflation targeting as an anchor for monetary policy. Along with the shift to greater exchange rate flexibility, a number of developing countries have moved to inflation targeting regimes. Twelve of the 32 developing countries considered to be rela-

148

tively open to capital movements had adopted inflation targeting regimes by the end of 2005—several in the course of the year (table 5.2). Recent research (IMF 2006) indicates that a number of developing countries that have pledged to use inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework have had better macroeconomic performance and in particular have outperformed countries with other frameworks.7 Six of the same 32 countries allow offshore trading in their currencies through NDFs, which are similar to ordinary forward foreign exchange contracts, with the exception that at maturity they do not require physical delivery of currencies and are typically settled in U.S. dollars. NDFs are largely short-term instruments—one month to one year—and are increasingly relied upon by foreign investors to hedge their exposures against currencies that are not traded internationally and that are not convertible on capital-account transactions. Once a country permits convertibility and develops onshore foreign exchange markets, NDF markets tend to diminish. Although NDFs are helpful instruments for managing cross-border

C H A L L E N G E S

I N

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Table 5.2 Profile of external financial policy for developing countries considered relatively open to capital movements As of 2005 Largely open countries

Exchange rate regime

Monetary policy

Bolivia Botswana Costa Rica Croatia Czech Rep. Dominican Rep. Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Estonia The Gambia Guatemala Hungary Indonesia Jamaica Jordan Kenya Latvia Lebanon Mexico Nicaragua Panama Peru Philippines Poland Romania Slovak Rep. Thailand Trinidad & Tobago Turkey Uruguay Zambia

Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate Floating Floating Floating Hard peg Floating Hard peg Hard peg Floating Floating Intermediate Floating Floating Hard peg Floating Intermediate Intermediate Floating Intermediate Hard peg Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Floating Hard peg Floating Floating Floating

Exchange rate anchor Exchange rate anchor Exchange rate anchor IMF program Inflation target — Exchange rate anchor M aggregate Exchange rate anchor — — Inflation target Inflation target Inflation target M aggregate Exchange rate anchor IMF program Exchange rate anchor Exchange rate anchor Inflation target Exchange rate anchor Exchange rate anchor Inflation target Inflation target Inflation target Inflation target Inflation target Inflation target — Inflation target M aggregate M aggregate

Years since article VIII assumed

38 10 40 10 10 52 35 1 59 11 12 58 9 17 42 10 11 11 12 59 41 59 44 10 10 7 10 15 12 15 25 3

Offshore currency derivatives market

Yes

Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Sources: World Bank staff calculations based on Ito and Menzies 2002; Miniane 2004; Edwards 2005; Quinn 1997; Brune and others 2001 and Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, IMF, various years. Note: Monetary policy: Inflation target = Public announcement of medium-term numerical targets for inflation with an institutional commitment by the monetary authority to achieve those targets. M aggregate = Monetary authority uses its instruments to achieve a target growth rate for a monetary aggregate that becomes the nominal anchor or intermediate target of monetary policy. Exchange rate anchor = Monetary authority stands ready to buy and sell foreign exchange at quoted rates to maintain the exchange rate at its predetermined level or range. IMF program = Implementation of monetary and exchange rate policy within the confines of a framework that establishes floors for international reserves and ceilings for net domestic assets of the central bank.

currency risk, regulatory agencies in developing countries need to keep a close eye on them, given the illiquidity of the currencies that underlie NDF transactions and the potential for speculative behavior.

Many countries now show surpluses on both their current and capital accounts Developing countries as a group have undergone a significant turnaround in the past several years in their external payment positions, moving from an aggregate current-account deficit of $89 billion (1.6 percent of GDP) in 1998 to a sizable surplus of $248 billion (2.6 percent of GDP) in 2005 (fig-

ure 5.8). This stands in marked contrast to the pattern observed in the first capital boom of 1992–7, when developing countries as a whole ran an aggregate current-account deficit of 2 percent of GDP per year (or an aggregate deficit of $547.7 billion from 1992–7). Much of the current-account surplus accumulated during the present surge is attributable to oil exporters and emerging Asia, which are benefiting from high oil prices and strong export growth, respectively. The net oil-exporting countries as a group have seen large gains in their currentaccount surpluses, posting an aggregate surplus of close to $219 billion in 2005, up from $50 billion

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F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 5.8 Current-account balance, developing countries, 1990–2005 $ billions

Figure 5.9 Value of oil imports, oil-importing countries, 2001–5

3

200

Percent

$ billions

Percent

250

11

250

2

Percentage of GDP (right axis)

10

200

1

150

9 150

100

0

50

–1

0

–2

– 50

–3

–100

–4

Share of total imports (right axis)

8

100 7 50

–150 1990

0

1996

1999

2002

5 2001

–5 1993

6

2002

2003

2004

2005

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

2005

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff calculations.

Table 5.3 Current account aggregated by region, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Others

–84.7 17.2 –27.7 –65.3 4.5 –13.3

–89.4 59.8 –24.5 –89.4 –9.7 –25.4

–4.1 60.3 –1.3 –55.4 6.2 –13.2

47.1 53.7 16.3 –46.8 25.3 –0.7

18.8 39.8 17.6 –51.9 15.4 –0.2

69.8 61.2 5.6 –14.9 12.0 8.1

122.3 74.9 –2.0 8.4 28.3 14.3

153.1 93.6 4.2 19.0 41.0 –2.3

248.4 143.4 23.2 33.9 76.0 –23.5

Memo item Oil exporting countries Oil importing countries excl. China

–32.5 –52.2 –89.2

–47.5 –42.0 –73.4

26.9 –30.9 –52.0

87.4 –40.3 –60.8

41.4 –22.6 –40.0

49.3 20.6 –14.9

91.3 31.0 –14.9

131.2 21.9 –46.6

219.0 29.5 –97.2

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank data reporting system. e = estimate.

in 2002. By contrast, the current-account position of oil-importing developing countries has increased from a surplus of $21 billion in 2002 to a surplus of $30 billion in 2005. The rise in their oil import bills from an aggregate value of $91.2 billion in 2001 to $229.8 billion in 2005 (now equal to approximately 10 percent of their total imports of goods and services—figure 5.9) is substantially greater than the change in their current account, as the boom in non-oil commodity prices has cushioned somewhat the impact of rising oil prices. Meanwhile, the Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions have recorded a large surplus, largely because of strong oil exports from the Russian Federation that mask deficits elsewhere in the re-

150

gion. And in Latin America, thanks to favorable prices for many non-oil commodity exports and relatively strong global economic growth, the region’s surplus increased in 2005 to $33.9 billion (table 5.3)—the largest current-account surplus recorded for that region in 25 years. The overall surpluses appearing on the current and capital accounts of the balance of payments of many countries reflect an increase in holdings of foreign currency due to net inflows from trade, workers’ remittances, and financial transactions (table 5.4). For developing countries as a whole, these inflows have increased steadily since 2000. In 2005, the combined current accounts and recorded capi-

C H A L L E N G E S

I N

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Table 5.4 Sources of reserve accumulation, 1997–2005 $ billions

Change in reserves Current account balance Balance on goods & services Net workers’ remittances Capital account Net private capital flows Net official capital flows Residents’ foreign asset accumulation and errors & omissions

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

52 –85 –53 71 332 293 38

16 –89 –44 73 260 199 61

33 –4 33 77 241 198 42

45 48 76 84 211 188 23

82 21 48 96 210 154 55

172 72 86 113 209 172 38

292 124 107 141 303 272 31

405 158 128 160 418 397 22

392 246 146 167 464 483 –19

195

155

204

213

148

109

136

172

318

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank data reporting system. e = estimate.

tal accounts of the developing world amounted to $710 billion (7 percent of their aggregate GDP), of which $392 billion was channeled into reserves by the official sector and the rest invested abroad by residents in the form of FDI, portfolio holdings, and other vehicles. (The cited figures include errors and omissions in the balance-of-payments accounts.) The opening of capital accounts by many developing countries in recent years has increased opportunities for capital outflows by firms and other private investors seeking to improve their returns through international diversification. Policy responses to such influx of liquidity must take into account the difference in the dynamics and cyclical characteristics of current-account positions and private capital flows. Private capital flows to developing countries tend to move procyclically, in line with global economic activity as expressed in GDP, trade, and commodity prices. They increase during upswings in commodity prices, for example, and decrease during downturns, which tends to amplify balance-of-payment swings from oil and other commodities. Currentaccount positions, by contrast, are less volatile than capital flows; they move in a countercyclical fashion with respect to the business cycle (Lane 2003). Box 5.2 provides an estimate of the sensitivity of private capital flows to international commodity price movements from 1980 to 2005. For developing countries as a whole, private capital flows were twice as large during upturns as they were during downturns, averaging $237 billion (in constant U.S. dollars) during upswings in commodity prices, and $109 billion during downswings. While capital flows tend to rise during upswings of economic cycles and decline in bad times, remittances tend to be countercyclical rela-

tive to recipient countries’ economies. Remittances (which are the largest source of external financing in many developing countries) may rise when the recipient economy suffers a downturn in activity, or because of macroeconomic shocks due to financial crisis, natural disaster, or political conflict (Clarke and Wallsten 2004, Kapur 2003, Yang 2004 and 2005), as migrants may send more funds during hard times to help their families and friends.8 According to official statistics, in 2005 remittance flows are estimated to have exceeded $233 billion worldwide, of which developing countries received $167 billion.

Current-account surpluses have fed foreign exchange reserves Although the pace of foreign exchange reserve accumulation slowed somewhat in 2005 in several developing countries, including India, Thailand, and Malaysia, the conversion of current-account surpluses into official reserves has continued. For developing countries as a group, the stock of official foreign exchange reserves reached $2 trillion by the end of 2005, compared to $1.6 trillion in 2004 and $1.2 trillion in 2002. In 2005, 92 of 127 developing countries increased their reserves, with the largest accumulations occurring in China and oil-exporting countries (figure 5.10). In relation to the size of their international trade, developing countries’ reserve holdings are now twice as large as those in developed countries (figure 5.11). Demand for official foreign currency reserves in major industrial countries has been more subdued, given their free-floating exchange rates, well-developed capital markets, and less vulnerable economies. At the end of 2005, the Euro Area reported $167 billion in reserves (European Central

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2 0 0 6

Box 5.2 Capital flows are procyclical with respect to non-oil commodity markets

C

apital flows to developing countries tend to move procyclically with world commodity prices, increasing when commodity prices are high and decreasing when they are low. Two factors account for this. First, commodity prices typically are negatively correlated with fixed income and equity markets in advanced countries. Capital is pushed to the developing world when returns in mature capital markets are low (typically during upturns), and vice-versa. Second, commodities still account for a large share of developing-country exports and production, affecting their terms of trade and real exchange rates, and potentially influencing business-cycle fluctuations, particularly in countries characterized as having “commodity currencies” (Chen and Rogoff 2002; Mendoza 1995; Cashin and others 2003). Thus the rise in aggregate demand increases domestic borrowing. Equally, as developing countries tend to face quantitative constraints on their borrowing, the rise in creditworthiness that comes with higher earnings on commodity exports increases foreign lenders’ willingness to supply funds. The relationship between capital flows and commodity prices is displayed in the figure below, which shows the behavior of net private capital flows (deflated by the U.S. GDP deflator) to developing countries, and the world price (in real terms) of their non-energy commodity exports from 1980 to 2005. This co-movement poses a problem for the management of capital flows in developing countries because, when commodity prices are falling (signaling a downturn in economic activity), capital flows also tend to fall, potentially exacerbating the effects of an economic downturn for the developing country. Over the period 1980–2005, downswings in world commodity prices (for those commodities that form a sig-

nificant portion of developing-country exports) averaged 16 years, while upswings averaged 8.5 years. For developing countries as a whole, private capital flows were twice as large during upturns as they were during downturns, averaging $237 billion (in constant U.S. dollars) during upswings in prices, and $109 billion during downswings. This tendency is also confirmed by detailed regional analyses using region-specific commodity price indices (excluding energy) and capital flow data. The correlation between private capital flows and commodity prices is particularly pronounced in East Asia, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America. During the upturns in commodity prices, private capital flows in East Asia, for example, were 3.1 times larger than they were during downturns. Similarly, in Europe and Central Asia, private capital flows were 3.2 times larger during upturns than downturns. In the other three regions, private capital flows in total are more modest, although they also tend to move procyclically. The recent surge in private capital flows is a good illustration of this experience. Net private capital flows rose from $154 billion in 2001 to an estimated $483 billion in 2005, while non-oil commodity prices increased by 55 percent, and oil prices by 119 percent, in dollar terms. This raises an important issue for oil importers: because the non-oil commodity-price cycle may have reached a peak, while oil prices are likely to remain high (see chapter 1), oil importers face the prospect of further declines in their terms of trade, coupled with a fall in private capital flows. It remains to be seen whether the improved macroeconomic environment achieved in recent years will be sufficient to cope with a substantial fall in both export revenues and external finance.

Private capital flows in line with non-oil commodity prices

Volume of private capital flows during cycles, 1980–2005

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

Sources: World Bank Debtor Reporting System and staff estimates.

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C H A L L E N G E S

Figure 5.10 Foreign exchange reserves, by region, 1995–2005

Percent

2000

40

1995 1600

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Figure 5.11 Foreign exchange reserves as a share of trade, 1970–2003

$ billions

1999

I N

35

2004

Developing countries

30

2005 1200

25 20

800

World

15

400

10

Developed countries

5

0 Oil-exporting countries

Emerging Asia

Developing countries

0 1970

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff calculations.

Bank and Euro-System); the United States, $37.8 billion (combined reserves of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Account and the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund); the United Kingdom, $40.9 billion; and Japan, $828.8 billion, the largest amount among the developed countries. The large-scale reserve buildups in developing countries reflect central banks’ policies of intervening in foreign exchange markets. In practice, the central banks purchase from private and public entities part or all of their inward flow of foreign exchange, paying for them with a mix of local currency and debt instruments. Massive foreign exchange intervention, therefore, is very likely to have expansionary domestic monetary implications in many developing countries. The authorities in

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000 2004

Source: World Bank staff calculations.

many high-reserve countries have so far managed to contain expansionary outcomes through largescale and routine sterilizations using open-market operations and other means. In almost all countries included in table 5.5, the change in net foreign assets on the central bank’s balance sheets between 2001 and 2005 has been largely offset by a decrease in net domestic assets, leaving reserve money largely unchanged as a percentage of GDP.

The accumulation of reserves has concentrated risks on central bank balance sheets The effect of the sterilization of capital flows is to transfer much of the currency risk associated with the intermediation of capital flows to the public sector, particularly to the central bank. When the

Table 5.5 Changes in central bank balance sheets, 2001–5 % change relative to GDP Net foreign assets

Brazil China Czech Rep. India Malaysia Mexico Poland Russian Fed. Thailand Turkey Venezuela, R. B. de

Net domestic assets

Reserve money

2001

2005

Change

2001

2005

Change

2001

2005

Change

5.0 19.6 22.5 10.2 35.0 7.2 13.3 9.9 20.2 –3.1 10.5

5.2 34.4 25.0 20.2 57.4 9.6 14.3 24.3 30.0 6.2 24.9

0.2 14.8 2.5 10.0 22.4 2.5 0.9 14.3 9.8 9.3 14.5

10.8 22.0 –2.2 8.0 –6.8 –1.7 2.2 5.0 9.1 22.9 0.0

4.8 6.7 –5.0 0.2 –6.5 –0.6 –1.5 –8.5 10.1 4.9 –2.3

–6.0 –15.3 –2.8 –7.8 0.3 1.0 –3.7 –13.5 1.0 –18.1 –2.3

6.6 42.3 22.3 13.8 12.0 5.7 8.2 10.8 14.2 10.1 7.3

11.1 35.3 10.7 16.3 11.0 8.0 7.9 13.7 20.9 8.4 9.2

4.5 –7.0 –11.5 2.5 –1.0 2.3 –0.3 2.9 6.7 –1.8 1.9

Sources: World Bank Data Reporting System and World Bank staff estimates.

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F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

central bank carries out an open-market sterilized intervention, it finances its purchase of foreign exchange reserves by issuing an equivalent amount of domestic public debt in the form of government (or central bank) securities. Reserves are typically invested in certain classes of foreign assets deemed to be of “reserve quality” or are used to pay down existing external public debt. At the end of 2005, foreign exchange reserves accounted for about three-fourths of the average assets of central banks of the countries with the largest reserve holdings, ranging from 27 percent in Brazil to 93 percent in Malaysia (table 5.6). Since the interest rates on reserve-grade assets are seldom as high as those on domestic securities, the mismatch often represents a significant loss of revenue, so that more debt has to be issued to cover the shortfall. The chief domestic implication of high reserves is a large accumulation of public debt. As domestic securities are the counterpart liabilities to foreign assets on the central bank’s balance sheet, the bank must be concerned about the effects of a rise in local interest rates. Whether they are issued in the form of the central bank’s own obligations or drawn from its existing inventory of government securities, the securities issued to balance out foreign currency reserves must compete for the available supply of domestic savings with securities issued by the private sector. In some countries, such as China, the supply of domestic securities issued by the central bank has grown very rapidly in recent years, from 2.2 percent of GDP in 2003 to 11 percent of GDP in 2005 (box 5.3). Table 5.6 Foreign currency reserves and foreign assets as shares of total central bank assets in countries with high reserve accumulations, 2005 Percent Country

Brazil China India Malaysia Mexico Poland Russian Fed. Thailand Turkey Venezuela, R. B. de Average

Foreign reserves/ Total assets

Net foreign assets/ Total assets

27.9 84.8 79.2 93.1 86.4 91.8 84.8 63.8 62.9 73.9 74.9

20.9 79.4 88.7 90.8 86.3 93.1 89.7 67.1 27.3 95.1 73.8

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics, and World Bank staff calculations.

154

The upward pressure on local interest rates induced by reserve accumulation could have the perverse effect of reinforcing the need for more reserves, as higher interest rates could attract larger volumes of private inflows. Higher local rates may well conflict with the government’s policy of stimulating investment and growth. And they almost always cause an increase in the government’s public debt; such public finance issues arise even if these assets are held by agencies other than central banks. The fact that governments tend to entrust the responsibility for accumulation and management of official reserves to their central banks adds to the complexity of the problem at hand by bringing to the fore the unique institutional character of central banks, their role in monetary and exchange rate management, and their particular accounting and reporting norms and standards. Central banks have a monopoly position in issuing domestic currency and the rules and agreements governing the distribution of their profits and dividends to the treasury vary considerably and are often determined by negotiation (Courtis and Mander 2003).9

Countries are adjusting the currency composition of their reserves The range of foreign assets of reserve quality encompasses virtually all government securities issued by large industrial countries that are denominated in major currencies and traded in deep liquid markets. The two key qualifying conditions for reserve assets are that they need to be readily available to and controlled by national monetary authorities (IMF 2001). Official holders of reserves may need to access them quickly and under difficult market conditions, when the ability to turn reserve assets into cash for intervention purposes at the prevailing market price is of the first importance.10 Almost 93 percent of developing countries’ reported official reserve holdings as of the end of 2005 were invested in three major currencies: the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Japanese yen.11 The euro’s share increased from 20 percent of reserves held at end-2000 to 29 percent in 2005, while the share of U.S. dollar reserves declined from 68 percent to 60 percent during the same period (figure 5.12). The dominant role of the U.S. dollar is likely to have persisted into 2006, as much of the reserve

C H A L L E N G E S

Box 5.3

I N

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Central bank debt in China

I

n the face of large capital inflows, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has had to act to stabilize monetary growth, a challenge complicated by the fact that, until July 2005, the PBC pegged the Chinese currency to the U.S. dollar. A close examination of the PBC balance sheet reveals a significant level of sterilization in the form of PBC securities issued to offset the domestic monetary consequences of PBC’s purchases of foreign exchange. In 2004 and 2005, the PBC issued bonds worth 805 billion and 922 billion yuan, respectively, in local markets, raising the outstanding stock of such bonds from 303 billion yuan in 2003 to 2,033 billion yuan in 2005 (figure at left). In addition, the authorities have relied on administrative mea-

sures, including reserve requirement ratios on domestic banks and credit ceilings on overheated sectors, such as real estate and infrastructure, in order to tighten monetary conditions and contain the inflationary consequences of large reserve accumulation. Such measures, coupled with the closed nature of China’s capital markets, have enabled the PBC to follow a prudent course of monetary policy. The pace of growth in the money supply (M2) remained within PBC’s target of 15 percent for much of 2004–5, but the rate of growth seems to have accelerated since the third quarter of 2005, possibly because of PBC’s move to ease its efforts on sterilization so as to buffer the impact of a currency revaluation (figure at right).

Domestic bond issuance by China’s central bank, 2001–5

China’s money supply and reserve money, 2000–5

Billions of yuan

% change year/year

2500

25 Money supply (M2)

2000

20

1500 15

1000 10

500 5

Reserve money

0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

0

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff estimates.

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff estimates.

accumulation during the year was done by Asian and oil-exporting countries, whose main exports are priced in dollars and whose currencies are in many cases either linked to the dollar or to a basket of currencies in which the dollar is heavily weighted. Although models of optimal portfolio investment allocation call for more euros in developing countries’ reserve holdings (box 5.4), further shifts into euro reserves are likely to be hampered by several factors:

•

• •

Inertia. Holdings of reserve currency reflect the currency’s importance in other areas, such as trade, which evolve slowly. A prime example is the time it took for the U.S. dollar to overtake

the pound sterling as the world’s major currency, despite the fact that the U.S. economy had overtaken Britain’s long before (Cohen 2000). First-mover risks. Choosing an alternative currency is risky for any individual holder, since it depends for its success on others also deciding to use that currency. In other words, there are network externalities, and such externalities may justify historical dependence on the use of that currency as a medium of exchange. Effects on exchange rates. Switching out of the incumbent reserve currency may induce adverse movements in dollar/euro exchange rates, so large holders may be reluctant to switch from the existing reserve holdings.

155

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Figure 5.12 Currency composition of developing countries’ foreign exchange reserves, 2000 and 2005 2000

2005 2%

2%

20% 29% 60%

68% 4% 6% 5% 4% U.S. dollar Japanese yen British pound Euro Others

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff calculations.

•

Such a consideration may be important in the current context for official holders of U.S. dollars in Asia and for oil exporters, and any diversification is likely to be incremental through purchase of non-dollar assets in the future, depending on the pace of their reserve accumulation. Depth. No market in euro-denominated government bonds, or indeed in the world, is as deep and liquid as that for U.S. Treasury securities. Although the aggregate issuance of Euro Area government debt is of the same order of magnitude as that of U.S. Treasury issues, Euro Area debt is the debt of 12 sovereign entities, rather than one. So far, there has been only limited coordination of the schedule and structure of issues (Bernanke 2004). There is also a lack of debt instruments with short maturities, since Euro Area governments issue relatively few short-term bills.12

changes associated with that surge have already become clear. They are an increase in domestic investment in most recipient countries and a sharp escalation in asset prices in local equity markets. These effects must be considered to be the initial manifestations of the current surge—longer term consequences are still in the making. Our analysis of monetary aggregates, based on a sample of 72 developing countries with access to international capital markets, provided no clear signal of excess money supply growth associated with the surge in private flows.13 Simple correlation and cross-country regression analyses revealed no statistically significant relationship between private capital flows and indicators of domestic money and credit supply. One plausible explanation is the possibility of a shift in demand for real money balances, brought about as many countries have lowered their inflation while simultaneously experiencing robust economic growth. Higher demand for money has absorbed some liquidity reducing the pressure on domestic inflation. Such findings are also consistent with the conclusion that, to date, countries have elected to respond to the surge by accumulating (and sterilizing) large quantities of reserves. This policy response is understandable: authorities in recipient countries see the surge as temporary and seek to avoid adjustments in the current accounts of their balance of payments. Sustained access to capital flows over time, however, is necessary for capital inflows to have a tangible impact on economic growth—to the extent that they increase domestic investment or lead to increased domestic financial intermediation (Bailliu 2000) or to enhanced domestic firm productivity. Reserve accumulation and sterilization cannot be a long-term solution to capital inflows, particularly if developing countries remain attractive for foreign investment in the coming years.

Capital flows are sometimes associated with increased domestic investment

The effect of the recent influx of capital flows on domestic investment and asset prices

I

mproved macroeconomic fundamentals, increased exchange rate flexibility, and greater financial openness have enhanced the ability of national policy makers to deal effectively with the ongoing surge in capital flows. Two domestic

156

Private capital flows can contribute meaningfully to domestic investment, particularly if they are sustained. The influx of private capital flows is associated with increased domestic investment, on average, as well as for most of the 72 developing countries in our sample. Table 5.7 compares the investment performance (aggregate domestic investment as a percentage of GDP) of a large

C H A L L E N G E S

Box 5.4

I N

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Optimizing allocations in reserve portfolios

T

he currency composition of reserves can be viewed in terms of a mean-variance, or capital-asset-pricing, model. Such models typically quantify the attractiveness of reserve assets in optimal portfolios over the long run, in the absence of other factors. In the real world, the choice of reserve currency is subject to considerable inertia, that is, it evolves slowly. Thus portfolios based on an optimal reserve-portfolio model, when compared to actual reserve holdings, provide an indication of long-run trends in the composition of reserves (after inertia has worked itself out), rather than predictions of near-term reserves changes. The table below provides the optimal reserve allocation across four currencies (U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and the pound ster-

ling) for a representative country consuming a basket of goods with the same proportions as the SDR weights, on the basis of historical returns on government bonds since the euro’s introduction. A comparison of real SDR returns on the major reserve currencies since 1999 (table below) shows that the pound sterling had the highest ex post return. While the euro’s mean return was higher than the dollar’s, its standard deviation was considerably larger. As a result, the representative country would hold a proportion of its reserves in euros lower than its SDR weight, while the dollar’s proportion would be slightly higher. Source: IMF Annual Report 2005.

Real returns expressed in SDRs, January 1999–September 2005 % per annum Correlations

U.S. dollar British pound Japanese yen Euro

U.S. dollar British pound Japanese yen Euro

Mean

Standard deviation

Dollar

Pound

Yen

Euro

1.98 4.82 1.55 3.66

15.88 17.16 26.53 21.86

1.00 –0.33 –0.09 –0.82

–0.33 1.00 –0.24 0.19

–0.09 –0.24 1.00 –0.39

–0.82 0.19 –0.32 1.00

Optimal share

SDR weight

1.98 4.82 1.55 3.66

15.88 17.16 26.53 21.86

sample of recipient countries during the first three years of the current surge (2002–4) with the preceding three years (1999–1). On average, across countries, investment rates stand approximately at the pre–Asian crisis level, although many countries have not yet reached that level. In Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, investment rates remain lower than pre-crisis levels by 10 to 20 percentage points of GDP, suggesting that the over-exuberance in investor behavior during the previous capital flow surge has not yet materialized, although a few countries, such as China, exhibit potential signs of overheating. Simple cross-country regression of domestic investment on private capital flows or the components of those flows reveals that the FDI component of capital flows has the strongest correlation

with domestic investment during 2002–4.14 This result may reflect the higher share of FDI in capital flows in 2002–4, as compared with 1992–7, since inbound FDI adds directly to domestic investment (see box 5.5). In addition, FDI has the potential to generate positive spillovers in the form of technology transfers, knowledge diffusion, and forward and backward linkages, potentially adding stimulus to overall domestic investment spending (Razin 2003; Alfaro, Chanda, and others 2004).

The capital flows surge has not (yet) resulted in excessive demand expansion One of the questions that arises during the current surge in capital flows, particularly in the quickly growing economies of China and India as well as in some of the oil exporting Eastern European

157

G L O B A L

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F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table 5.7 Investment performance during the surge in capital flows, 2002–4 Investment as a % of GDP (averages) Average over Selected Countries

Azerbaijan Bangladesh Botswana Brazil Chile China Colombia Croatia Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Nigeria Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Russian Fed. South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Tunisia Turkey Venezuela, R. B. de Vietnam Zambia Total

Change

1994–6

1999–2001

2002–4

22.7 19.2 25.4 21.8 25.6 40.5 24.5 19.0 21.0 16.8 18.4 23.4 23.9 31.2 32.2 22.7 42.1 21.7 20.6 16.7 19.0 23.3 23.5 18.9 24.9 17.4 25.7 41.4 24.8 23.8 16.3 26.9 12.3 23.8

22.6 23.3 23.7 21.1 21.5 37.4 13.9 22.4 20.2 18.6 16.7 28.8 22.9 18.3 22.0 20.9 24.5 22.8 23.2 21.3 16.7 20.2 19.6 23.4 18.5 15.9 25.8 22.5 27.1 21.5 26.1 29.5 18.8 21.9

45.6 23.3 27.6 18.8 23.2 43.2 14.9 28.8 25.9 17.0 16.4 24.9 22.8 20.4 22.1 26.1 21.9 21.0 23.5 23.3 17.1 18.7 17.1 19.1 20.7 17.0 22.7 25.3 25.0 23.3 19.3 34.2 24.6 23.3

(2002/4–1999/2001)

23.0 0.0 4.0 –2.3 1.7 5.8 1.0 6.4 5.8 –1.6 –0.3 –3.9 0.0 2.1 0.2 5.2 –2.6 –1.7 0.2 2.0 0.4 –1.4 –2.5 –4.3 2.2 1.1 –3.0 2.9 –2.2 1.7 –6.8 4.7 5.8 1.3

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff calculations. Note: A selection of countries is presented; the overall average represents results for a sample of 72 developing countries with access to international capital markets. The countries in the sample account for more than 95 percent of private capital flows to developing countries.

countries, is whether private capital flows are contributing to overheating. Several traditional markers of overheating (acceleration in inflation, rapid increases in domestic investment, and consumer goods imports) have not been evident so far during this current surge. Inflation has decreased in many developing countries (table 5.8) and remained relatively low, and currencies have not experienced significant appreciation in terms of their real effective exchange rate (as noted earlier). Moreover, there is no sign so far of a run-up in consumption and imports, and thus of current-account deficits or of sharp rises in domestic investment. It does not yet appear that the current surge in private

158

capital flows has resulted in the kind of overheating of domestic economies seen just before the East Asian crisis. It is still early, however. Should the surge continue, it could result in higher inflation, currency appreciation, and declines in current-account balances over the next few years.

Capital flows are associated with escalation in asset prices Although inflation as a whole has remained subdued in most developing countries, one indicator of potential demand pressures is the sharp rise in stock prices. The stock market capitalization of countries included in the Standard and Poor’s/IFCI index15 rose from $1.7 trillion at the end of 2002 to $4.4 trillion at the end of 2005 (figure 5.13). In particular, market capitalization of Asian stock markets tripled during the same period, and stock prices in other major emerging markets saw large increases (more than 100 percent in some cases) in both local currency and U.S. dollar terms (table 5.9). For many countries, stock markets have now recovered to the levels they attained before the East Asian crisis. The sharp response of these markets to inflows of portfolio capital can be explained by their small size, limited liquidity, and high concentration in a few large issues. As shown in figure 5.14, turnover ratios, as a percentage of market capitalization, for most emerging stock markets in 2004 were less than 40 percent while for the NYSE and NASDAQ they were 90 percent and 249 percent, respectively. India and Thailand were the exceptions with turnover ratios over 100 percent. Trading in most emerging markets is also highly concentrated; for example, in Mexico, trading in eight stocks accounted for 62.7 percent of total trades on the exchange. Therefore, relatively small foreign portfolio inflows can have a major impact on the stock prices in these exchanges. One benefit of the rise in stock market valuation has been its contribution to corporate restructuring in several developing countries, especially in East Asia. The high market valuations combined with low local interest rates, have made it possible for many firms to pay off debt, thus reducing leverage. The two most highly leveraged corporate sectors—those of the Republic of Korea and Thailand—reduced their debt-to-equity ratios below 75 percent by 2004, down sharply from nearly 400 percent in 1997 (figure 5.15).

C H A L L E N G E S

Box 5.5

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Investment and private capital flows

I

n order to more carefully examine the relationship between private capital flows and investment, a more rigorous analysis is required. In principle, both capital flows and domestic investment are endogenous variables affected by third factors (such as the investment climate, productivity, international interest rates, and economic growth). Because factors that stimulate domestic investment also tend to attract private capital flows (and vice versa), the high correlation of capital flows with investment is not surprising. The influence of third variables also suggests that the relationship between capital inflows and domestic investment is nonlinear, so that capital inflows have a positive and significant effect on investment only once a threshold level of financial and economic development has occurred (Rioja and Valev 2004; Bailliu 2000; Alfaro and others 2004). Econometric analysis offers a more rigorous explanation of the dynamics of capital flows and domestic investment in recipient countries. The underlying methodology and estimation are summarized in the annex. Some key findings are presented below: •

I N

There is strong statistical evidence that suggests private capital flows contribute to increased domestic investment across developing countries with access to international capital markets.

Moreover, since the Asian financial crises, developing countries have made some progress in establishing the institutional and regulatory foundations they need to manage capital flows. At the same time, they have considerably improved corporate financial soundness, as firms in virtually all crisis-affected countries have reduced leverage, enhanced profitability, and undertaken financial restructuring. That progress needs to be set against still evolving reforms in the areas of corporate governance, risk management, and transparency. Weak governance results in poor financial reporting and disclosure, as well as insufficient management accountability, allowing resources to be used for personal or unrelated uses. It can also provide incentives for short-term gain rather than longterm stability. The links between financial soundness and good corporate governance are clear. Recent research has provided evidence that the quality of corporate governance is positively related to growth opportunities and the need for external fi-

•

•

•

Taking into account financial development and trade openness, while controlling for other determinants of domestic investment, econometric analysis indicates that for countries reaching a minimum threshold of financial development and capital-account openness, private capital inflows can have a positive and significant impact on investment. Financial development affects the ability of developing countries to attract private capital flows and use them for domestic investment. For example, our estimates indicate that in Ghana, where the ratio of M2 to GDP is 17 percent, a one-percentage-point increase in private capital flows (as a share of GDP) would result in an increase in investment of 0.40 percent of GDP, but only if Ghana’s domestic financial size (ratio of M2 to GDP) was developed to reach 74 percent, a level comparable to Malaysia’s. Similarly, a country like Brazil could experience an increase in investment of up to 1 percent of GDP as a result of a one-percentage-point (of GDP) increase in private capital flows—if it became as open to financial flows as Mexico (provided those resources were channeled into domestic investment and not reserve accumulation).

nancing (Pinkowitz and others 2003). Poor corporate governance limits the ability of firms to raise capital and grow, as capital markets place a lower value on poorly governed firms. Recent research has also highlighted the importance of the country-level dimension of corporate governance, including the relationship between the quality of a country’s institutions and the legal protection given to investors’ rights, on the one hand, and the effect on investors’ potential returns and overall decisions to invest in a particular country, on the other (Doidge and others 2004).

Lessons and policy agenda

I

n the last few years, many developing countries have deepened their integration into global capital markets through greater exchange rate flexibility, development of local capital markets, reduced dependence on short-term external debt, and gradual liberalization of cross-border trade in financial

159

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table 5.8 Indicators of overheating in selected developing countries, 2002–4 Change from immediately preceding 3 years: annual period averages in % Current account balance Selected countries

GDP growth

1999–2001

2002–4

Change

–5.7

–23.7

–17.9

11.3 –4.5 –0.9 1.8 0.1 –4.4 2.7

6.3 0.4 –0.3 3.4 –1.3 –7.1 –2.7

–2.1 –7.5 –0.5 4.4 –1.8 11.2 –3.0 0.9 8.1 0.3 –2.6 6.5 –5.5 13.9 –0.2 –3.8 7.7 –3.5 0.4 4.6 3.2 –14.4 0.4

Azerbaijan Bangladesh Botswana Brazil Chile China Colombia Croatia Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Hungary India Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Malaysia Mexico Morocco Nigeria Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Russian Fed. South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Tunisia Turkey Venezuela, R. B. de. Vietnam Zambia Total

1999–2001

Inflation

2002–4

Change

1999–2001

2002–4

Change

9.5

11.0

1.5

–5.0 4.8 0.6 1.6 –1.4 –2.7 –5.3

6.1 2.2 2.0 7.5 0.1 2.1 0.5

4.8 2.5 3.9 9.0 3.3 4.4 4.2

–1.3 0.4 1.8 1.5 3.2 2.2 3.7

–3.9 –8.3 0.9 2.9

–1.8 –0.7 1.4 –1.5

2.4 4.4 5.4 3.2

1.9 3.5 6.5 4.8

–0.5 –0.9 1.1 1.6

–1.2 11.0 –1.5 3.2 11.9 3.0 –1.1 3.3 –3.0 8.9 –1.4 –1.9 5.1 –2.8 0.1 11.5 –2.9 –6.3 1.7

0.5 –0.2 1.5 2.2 3.8 2.6 1.5 –3.2 2.5 –5.0 –1.3 2.0 –2.7 0.7 –0.3 6.9 –6.2 8.1 1.3

8.7 5.1 3.4 2.4 2.8 3.3 1.3 4.1 3.0 7.2 3.1 2.9 3.8 5.2 –1.6 0.4 6.2 3.6 3.4

9.5 5.5 2.2 4.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.7 3.5 6.4 3.4 5.3 6.1 4.3 7.6 0.3 7.3 4.4 4.9

0.8 0.4 –1.2 1.6 2.5 1.6 3.2 0.5 0.5 –0.8 0.3 2.4 2.3 –0.9 9.2 –0.1 1.1 0.8 1.5

–1.7 3.3 8.0 6.3 3.7 –0.3 9.3 4.3 62.0 2.7 2.3 9.7 4.3 12.0 1.3 9.7 2.0 10.7 1.3 11.0 3.7 3.0 5.7 7.7 42.7 5.3 8.3 1.3 2.7 58.0 17.7 0.7 24.7 15.9

3.0 4.0 8.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 6.3 2.0 7.7 6.3 2.7 5.7 4.0 8.3 2.3 6.3 1.3 5.0 2.0 14.0 4.3 2.0 4.0 2.3 13.7 5.7 8.0 2.0 3.3 26.3 25.0 5.0 22.0 10.4

4.7 0.7 0.0 3.7 –1.7 0.3 –3.0 –2.3 –54.3 3.7 0.3 –4.0 –0.3 –3.7 1.0 –3.3 –0.7 –5.7 0.7 3.0 0.7 –1.0 –1.7 –5.3 –29.0 0.3 –0.3 0.7 0.7 –31.7 7.3 4.3 –2.7 –5.6

Sources: IMF, International Financial Statistics and World Bank staff calculations.

Figure 5.14 Turnover on world stock exchanges, 2004 Figure 5.13 Market capitalization

Percent

$ billions

250

5000

Middle East & Africa

200

Emerging Europe 4000

Asia

150

Latin America

100

3000

50 2000

0 2002

2003

2004

2005

Sources: World Federation of Exchanges and World Bank staff calculations.

160

Ta iw an N , C Is as hi tan daq na bu Ko S l re E SE a C De Ex or ut ch p. sc an Sh he ge en Bo¨ zh rse Lo en n S Th don E ai S la E nd In SE di To a S ky E o Sh N SE an Y Au gh SE st ai Ho S ng in ralia SE Ko ga n S E n p JS g, ore E Ch SE So ina BS ut S h E E, Th Ja Afri e ka ca SE rta Sã M SE o u B P mb M urs ao ai ex a lo ica M SE n ala E y Ph xch sia ilip an g Sa pine e nt S ia E go SE

0 1000

Sources: World Federation of Exchanges and World Bank staff calculations.

C H A L L E N G E S

I N

M A N A G I N G

C A P I T A L

F L O W S

Table 5.9 Stock market performance in emerging markets, 2002–5 % increase in stock market valuation Local currency

Region/Country

Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Peru Asia China India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Europe Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey Middle East & Africa Egypt, Arab Rep. of Morocco South Africa

U.S. dollar

% change, 2002–5

Average annual change, 2002–5

% change, 2002–5

Average annual change, 2002–5

277.1 167.4 107.3 181.9 136.5

92.4 55.8 35.8 60.6 45.5

319.2 305.3 143.4 177.3 142.4

106.4 101.8 47.8 59.1 47.5

92.2 165.8 183.6 36.6 113.0 128.3

30.7 55.3 61.2 12.2 37.7 42.8

97.1 183.1 158.0 37.4 114.5 140.0

32.4 61.0 52.7 12.5 38.2 46.7

442.9 175.2 111.6 181.9 244.8

147.6 58.4 37.2 60.6 81.6

290.9 189.1 149.1 213.4 323.5

97.0 63.0 49.7 71.1 107.8

887.0 68.6 90.5

295.7 22.9 30.2

947.6 84.6 157.7

315.9 28.2 52.6

Sources: Standard & Poor’s IFCI index and World Bank staff calculations.

Figure 5.15 Ratios of debt to equity in selected countries, 1996–2004 Percent 500

Korea, Rep. of Indonesia Thailand Philippines Malaysia

400

300

200

100

0 1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Sources: Thomson Financial and World Bank staff calculations.

assets. Those developments, coupled with the shift from potentially volatile short-term debt to more stable FDI, have improved the context for capital flows, raising the likelihood that the economic outcomes of the present surge in capital flows will be better than those observed in the 1990s. The associ-

ated policy agenda for developing countries is broad and complex. However, several key themes are clear. Policy responses to the latest surge in private flows have included the buildup of large foreign exchange reserves. Governments have attempted to minimize the macroeconomic problems associated with large inflows of foreign capital by recycling those resources into official reserves. Central banks have purchased foreign exchange from local banks and other authorized financial intermediaries and invested the proceeds in liquid assets in major industrial countries, particularly in U.S. Treasuries. Recognizing that this process cannot continue indefinitely, policy makers in developing countries are exploring alternative policies, including improving the return on reserve holdings by asset diversification, transferring part of the currency risk to the private sector (notably by allowing institutional investors to invest some portion of their foreign-currency earnings overseas, rather than selling them to the central bank), relying more on the stabilizing role of exchange rate changes, and encouraging expansion in aggregate demand (both consumption and investment). In East Asia, efforts are being made to increase the size

161

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

and depth of regional financial markets to recycle reserves into productive investments within the region. Such policy responses need to be orchestrated carefully, taking into account the potential threats of macroeconomic imbalances, overheating, and asset-price escalation, as well as the need to improve risk management practices. For countries with large holdings of foreign exchange reserves, allowing local institutional investors to diversify their investment portfolio globally could provide a viable channel of capital outflow, as well as an opportunity for greater risk diversification. Allowing such investments would have the salutary effect of transferring foreign exchange risks, currently concentrated on central banks’ books, to domestic institutional investors, which have a longer investment horizon and can benefit from a more diversified international portfolio. Other vehicles for reducing the pressure on the central banks’ balance sheets might include the creation of specialized investment vehicles similar to the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore, the Korea Investment Corporation, and Kazanah in Malaysia to manage a portion of foreign exchange reserves for long-term investment. The assets of institutional investors in several developing countries, especially in East Asia and Latin America, have been growing at a fast clip due to rapid growth of pension funds and insurance companies. The establishment of corporate pension funds in countries such as the Republic of Korea and Thailand has contributed to that growth. Until recently, institutional investors in most developing countries have followed very conservative investment policies, with government securities accounting for the lion’s share of their assets. Institutional investors in most developing countries are generally prohibited from investing in foreign securities. Exceptions include Chile, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. At the end of 2004, Chile’s institutional investors held 27.3 percent of their assets in foreign securities, compared with just 2.8 percent for Thailand and Korea, which only recently have gained the right to make limited overseas investments. Oil exporters face a different set of policy challenges, including the need to design appropriate stabilization funds and to rely on market instruments to hedge against volatility in the oil market. Oil exporters, most of which are heavily dependent on a single commodity for foreign ex-

162

change, face opportunities and challenges distinct from those of other developing countries.16 Oil is a commodity with an active spot market, as well as a growing liquid futures market that offers up to 5year contracts, affording oil-exporting countries a broad range of options and market instruments, such as oil derivatives, to manage the future stream of foreign exchange revenues. But, in practice, governments have been reluctant to enter futures and derivatives markets for several reasons, including their limited capacity for large-scale hedging, insufficient expertise to trade successfully, and limited access for countries with poor credit. A high concentration in a single export commodity translates into a high degree of volatility in export earnings. In 2005, 14 of 31 oil-exporting countries depended on oil exports for more than 50 percent of their foreign exchange—among them Libya (94 percent), Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (85 percent), and Iran (73 percent). Several countries have put aside a fraction of their oil revenues in so-called stabilization funds or funds for the future. Experience with such funds has been mixed. To make the best of them, robust governance and legal frameworks are required to insulate the funds from political interference. The government must set clear investment objectives, adopt sound investment policies, and appoint professional managers to invest money with proper safeguards and transparency. The development of international norms and standards on transparency, corporate governance, and regulation of national financial systems has raised the confidence of foreign investors in emerging market economies. A hallmark of efforts to improve the international financial architecture in the late 1990s was the development, by the international financial community, of a set of international norms and standards on transparency, corporate governance, and regulation and supervision of financial systems. The new standards were designed specifically to guide the countries affected by the Asian crises of the late 1990s to return to international financial markets, and more generally to pave the way for the gradual and sequential liberalization of international capital movements. International scholars have argued that the adoption of open-door financial policies and practices tends to cluster in time and space (Simmons and Elkins 2004) and that governments comply with international norms

C H A L L E N G E S

and legal commitments if their peers do so and if the reputational cost of reneging is perceived to be high (Simmons 2000). Those arguments have provided a strong intellectual basis for a standardscentered approach to bolster market confidence. Building on the success of earlier norms embodied in the IMF’s safeguards assessments and the Special Data Dissemination Standards (adopted in 1996), international norms on transparency, financial infrastructure, and corporate governance were formulated on the basis of voluntary compliance, with monitoring responsibility assigned to multinational financial institutions. At the request of a member country, the IMF and the World Bank assess compliance with the international standards by preparing and publishing reports on the observance of standards and codes (ROSCs). International norms—standards of appropriate and broadly accepted behavior—enhance stability as investors are able to form accurate expectations of governments’ behavior. The world is moving toward a multipolar international monetary system in which the monetary and financial policies of the major industrial countries of the G-3—and of key emerging market economies that are important players in global trade and finance—are of predominant importance. One aspect of the new multipolar world is that the U.S. dollar is no longer without a serious competitor as an international currency. The emergence of a large and deep market for euro-denominated securities widens the opportunities for diversification available to developing countries as well as to other countries. Accumulating euro-denominated financial assets in proportion to the Euro Area’s share of global production and trade allows governments to hedge against real-side fluctuations. The euro also provides a potential anchor currency for economies closely linked to the existing Euro Area that wish to peg to a major and widely circulated currency. The emergence of the euro alongside the dollar may introduce some instability, however, as the lack of synchronization between the United States and the Euro Area may occasionally produce large movements in exchange rates that could have serious consequences for developing countries. Policy coordination may not be necessary in normal times, when floating exchange rates and monetary policies oriented primarily to domestic targets for inflation and economic activity facilitate adjustment to the shocks hitting the two regions. But at

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times of financial market instability, policy coordination may be needed to limit large swings in exchange rates.17 A second aspect of the multipolar world is that a wider set of countries now matter in the resolution of policy imbalances. Developing countries, which would suffer disproportionately from the instability induced by a hard landing, have a shared interest in seeing multilateral cooperation in international monetary relations. The scope of cooperation should cover global liquidity, the optimal mode of adjustment, and the role of key currencies. The large size of the U.S. current account deficit has as its counterpart large surpluses in Asia and among oil exporters. The anticipated need for a real effective depreciation of the dollar to help correct that deficit will have to occur against a wider set of currencies than those of the industrial countries (the Plaza Agreement involved the G-5 countries), which may well make policy coordination more difficult. However, it is clear that countries with large reserve holdings have a shared interest in a smooth adjustment of dollar’s exchange rate. Managing capital flows effectively will remain critical to ensuring economic progress in developing countries Private capital flows to developing countries hit an historic high in 2005, but there remains considerable room for growth, given developing countries’ demographic profiles, per capita investment levels ($400 in 2004, compared with $6,000 in developed countries), and economic prospects. Investors in developed countries invest less than 3 percent of their portfolios of common stocks in developing countries; and only 5 percent of global bonds issued in recent years originated in developing countries. As developing countries’ financial markets become increasingly integrated with global financial markets, those percentages are likely to rise (as are developing countries’ holdings of foreign assets). To take advantage of those opportunities and protect market access, it will be essential for developing countries to vigorously maintain macroeconomic stability. They also will need to strengthen domestic financial markets and institutions to cope more effectively with the risks associated with growing capital flows and to maximize the efficiency of capital allocation. Sustaining the economic policies and institutions that can effectively deal with capital flow surges is likely to remain a key issue for developing countries for many years to come.

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Annex: Capital Flows and Domestic Investment

B

ecause private capital flows may have a larger impact on investment where the financial sector is well developed and restrictions on capital movements are few (Bailliu 2000), we studied interactions between private capital flows, financial development, and capital controls. We tested the relationship between private capital flows and investment in a simultaneous equation system, where we were interested in both the direct effect of private capital flows on investment and the indirect effect, which was determined through the interaction of private capital flows with financial development and capital account restrictions, respectively. The dependent variables in our analysis are investment and private capital flows, each as a percentage of GDP. The explanatory variables include trade openness, financial development, capital controls, and a set of control variables. Trade openness (TO) is defined as exports plus imports divided by GDP. Financial development (FD) is measured using M2. Restrictions on movements of private capital (CC) are measured by the ChinnIto index (2002). The index is larger when there are fewer capital controls. Private capital flows (CF/GDP) include both debt and equity flows. The

control variables are: government size (measured by government expenditure) and institutional development (measured by the Freedom House index of political freedom). Several other control variables were tried (such as average years of schooling, inflation rates, and the extent of paved roads), but they proved insignificant in the analysis. The motivation for including these control variables comes from several theoretical relationships. Government size is a control for policy at the country level. Political freedom is a proxy for institutional quality. The data set consists of a panel of observations for a sample of 72 developing countries with access to international capital markets. The sample was drawn from all regions and includes countries in a broad range of developmental stages. China was excluded because of the size of its money supply in relation to GDP, which is far greater than any other developing country and might have biased the results. The data were averaged over five-year intervals over 1980–2004 to produce a set of five observations per country. The simultaneous equation model we used in our analysis takes into account the endogeneity of investment and private capital flows and is written as follows:

 FD   CF   CF   CC   1   CF   FD   CC   GDP  = α i + β1  GDP  + β2  GDP  + β3  GDP  + β4  GDP  ∗  GDP  + β5  GDP  ∗  GDP  + γ i Xit + εit it it it it it it it it

(5.1)

is the equation for investment and

 FD   CF   CC   GDP  = φi + δ1 (growth)it + δ 2  GDP  + δ3  GDP  + θ i Xit + ε it it it it is the equation for private capital flows.

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(5.2)

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Table 5A.1 Domestic investment and private capital flows Iterated 3SLS regressions Dependent variable is private capital flows Variables

GDP per capita GDP growth Trade openness M2 Capital controls Gov’t spending Political freedom

Constant

Dependent variable is investment

Regression 1

Regression 2

Variables

Regression 1

Regression 2

0.000005* 0.62* 0.12* –0.05* –0.002 0.021 0.001

0.000005* 0.62* 0.12* –0.05* –0.002 0.021 0.001

Private capital flows GDP per capita Trade openness M2 Capital controls PCF × M2 PCF × capital controls Gov’t spending Political freedom Constant

1.37* –0.000008* –0.04 0.10* 0.001

1.58* –0.000008* –0.15 0.14* –0.002 –1.2 0.11 0.11* –0.002* 0.15*

–0.03*

–0.02*

0.12* –0.002* 0.17*

Note: Regression 1 is without interaction effects; regression 2 is with interaction effects. Iterated 3SLS iterates over the estimated disturbance covariance matrix and parameter estimates until they converge. The technique does not require the assumption that errors are normally distributed. PCF = private capital flows. * = significance at the 5-percent level or better.

In each equation, X represents a vector of country specific characteristics: openness to trade, GDP per capita, government spending, and political freedom. We used an iterated three-stage least squares (3SLS) technique (Zellner and Theil 1962) to estimate the simultaneous equation system to take into account the nonlinearity of the investment equation and the endogeneity of the regressors. First, estimation of private capital flows (column 1) showed that GDP per capita, GDP growth, and trade openness had positive and significant effects on private capital flows, while financial development measured by M2 had a small negative effect. For the baseline regression (shown in the first column of the right-hand panel) of investment, we found that private capital flows, government spending, and financial development (measured by M2) had a positive and significant effect on domestic investment. Political freedom also had a significant effect—the coefficient is negative because higher values of political freedom in this index imply less freedom. Capital controls and trade openness were insignificant at the 10-percent level. (The coefficient estimates from the 3SLS are presented.) Next we performed a 3SLS regression that included, in the equation for investment, the interaction effects reported in column (2) in the table, which shows first that when interaction effects are included, private capital flows and M2 have positive, significant, and direct effects on domes-

tic investment, whereas GDP per capita and political freedom (the absence of freedom) have small negative effects. Turning to the interaction terms, private capital flows have both a direct and indirect effect on domestic investment. The indirect effect comes through the extent of financial development and capital controls, which is determined by the coefficient estimates on the interaction terms (PCF × M2 and PCF × capital controls). We then considered the marginal effects (obtained by differentiating investment with respect to capital flows using the coefficient estimates from our estimations) of capital flows on growth and investment. We calculated the net effect (both direct and indirect) of private capital flows on investment as:

 FD  β1 + β4   GDP  for the interaction with financial development and as

 CC  β1 + β5   GDP  for the interaction with capital controls. From this, we determined the effect that deepening the financial sector or loosening capital controls might have on investment through their interactions with private capital. (An example is discussed in the text.)

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Notes 1. The coefficient of persistence referred to here is measured as the coefficient on the lagged term in the regression of the annual ratios of FDI to GDP and debt to GDP, respectively, against a constant and their one-year lag values for each of the 72 developing countries with access to international capital markets over the period 1980–2004. 2. The conventional wisdom was that pass-through of exchange rate changes into import prices is relatively rapid and more complete in developing than developed countries (Ho and McCauley 2003). Rapid pass-through was cited as a rational for exchange rate management, as changes in exchange rates could translate into significant inflationary pressure. However recent research has shown that passthrough underwent a transformation during the 1990s for many developing countries and now is much slower and less complete (Frankel, Parsley and Wei 2005), although still faster and more pervasive than for developed countries. 3. Even when countries announce greater exchange rate flexibility as a policy, their day-to-day practice may be quite different. See Calvo and Reinhart (2002) for a discussion. 4. See for example, Schneider and Tornell (2004) and Fischer (2001). The increased vulnerability from real exchange rate appreciation comes through loss of trade competitiveness and possible worsening of current account balances. 5. During 2002–4, about half of the variation in the real effective exchange rate appears to have come from the nominal exchange rate, rather than from movements in relative prices. A simple variance decomposition of the real effective exchange rate into its components (nominal exchange rate and differences between relative prices) shows that the nominal rate accounts for about 53 percent of the variation in the real rate during this period. 6. The offshore nondeliverable forward market for selected currencies is typically used to hedge currency risks in markets where capital controls prevent effective onshore currency risk hedging. 7. The move to inflation targeting may be a consequence of the shift in many developing countries to policies that promote macroeconomic stability. If that is so, it cannot be credited directly with improving macroeconomic performance. As discussed in IMF (2006), the available evidence is only suggestive; the time series is too short and the number of countries with such targets are too few to make a definitive statement. 8. Yang (2005) found that the increase in remittances makes up for 13 percent of income losses in the current year and 28 percent within four years of a hurricane. In contrast, increases in ODA and FDI make up for roughly 26 and 21 percent within four years. 9. Also, despite considerable progress in recent years in achieving convergence of financial accounting standards between the United States and European Union, and in implementing the IMF’s safeguards assessment policy, there is yet no accepted international accounting standards that are suited to the nuances of central banks’ particular role and mandate. Important questions remain on the proper treatment of unrealized gains or losses, asset valuation, and reporting and disclosure of derivatives contracts that the cen-

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tral bank may be counterparty to either for risk management or foreign exchange intervention purposes (see, for example, Hawkins 2003). 10. In this regard, reserves need to be distinguished from other assets held by the official sector primarily for investment purposes, rather than for intervention in the foreign exchange market. 11. Swiss francs and several other currencies are used as foreign exchange reserves, but their shares are too small to be meaningful in this analysis. 12. It is possible to imagine innovative solutions that would increase the liquidity of European markets, for instance the creation of a single issuer of government shortterm paper, as proposed by Alexandre Lamfalussy (Speech at the European Central Bank, April 29–30, 2002). However, the prospect for such an institution, which presumably would buy up all the Euro Area governments’ issues, seems distant. 13. The 72 countries in our sample account for more than 95 percent of all private capital flows to developing countries. The countries in the sample range from large emerging markets (such as China, Malaysia, and Thailand) to small commodity-based economies. They were drawn from all regions and from both mid- and low-income categories. 14. The implication is that capital inflows and investment are correlated—at least some of the capital inflows are going to domestic investment. As the regression excludes other determinants of investment, the degree of this relationship may be overstated. 15. Excluding Bahrain, Israel, Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Taiwan (China). 16. In the last two years, oil-exporting countries have benefited from the sharp increase in oil prices. In 2005, total oil exports from developing countries increased to an estimated $522.7 billion, up 37.6 percent from 2004. Oil exports from the Middle East were estimated at $242.7 billion, 46.4 percent of the total. In addition to the Middle Eastern countries, the Russian Federation was one of the major beneficiaries of the hike in the price of oil. 17. In the mid-1980s, when the U.S. dollar was widely perceived to be overvalued, the Plaza Agreement of September 1985 helped bring it to a “soft landing”. In the current environment a coordinated policy of intervention in foreign currency markets is neither desirable nor feasible, given the changes in global finance market conditions and actors over the past two decades.

References Alfaro, Laura, Areendam Chanda, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Selin Sayek. 2004. “FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets.” Journal of International Economics 64 (1): 89–112. Bailliu, Jeannine. 2000. “Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries.” Bank of Canada Working Paper 2000-15. Bernanke, Ben. 2004. “What Have We Learned from the Euro at Five?” Remarks made at the conference on “The Euro at Five: Ready for a Global Role.” Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC, February 26.

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Brune, Nancy, Geoffrey Garrett, Alexandra Guisinger, and Jason Sorens. 2001. “The Political Economy of Capital Account Liberalization.” Paper prepared for presentation at the 2001 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, August 31. Calvo, Guillermo A., Morris Goldstein, and Eduard Hochreiter. 1996. Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets after the Mexican Crisis. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. Calvo, Guillermo A., and Carmen M. Reinhart. 2002. “Fear of Floating.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (2): 379–408. Carvalho, Bernardo S. de M., and Márcio G. P. Garcia. 2005. “Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties.” Paper presented at the Inter-American Seminar on Economics entitled “Strengthening Global Financial Markets,” December 1–3. http://www.nber.org/books/IASE05/. Cashin, Paul, Luis Cespedes, and Ratna Sahay. 2003. “Commodity Currencies: Developing Countries Reliant on Commodity Exports See the Fate of Their Exchange Rates Tied to Fickle Commodity Markets.” Finance and Development 40 (1): 45–48. Cavoli, Tony, and Ramkishen S. Rajan. 2005. “Have Exchange Rate Regimes in Asia Become More Flexible Post Crisis? Revisiting the Evidence.” CIES Discussion Paper 0503, Center for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide. Chen, Yu-chin, and Kenneth Rogoff. 2002. “Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles.” IMF Working Paper 02/27, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Chinn, Menzie D., and Hiro Ito. 2002. “Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence.” NBER Working Paper 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Clarke, George, and Scott Wallsten. 2004. “Do Remittances Protect Households in Developing Countries Against Shocks? Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Jamaica.” Unpublished paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. November. Cohen, Benjamin J. 2000. “Life at the Top: International Currencies in the Twenty-First Century.” Princeton Essays in International Finance 221, Department of Economics, Princeton University. http://www.princeton.edu/ ~ies/old_series-win.htm. Corsetti, Giancarlo, Paolo Pesenti, and Nouriel Roubini. 1998. “What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview.” NBER Working Paper 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Courtis, N., and B. Mander, eds. 2003. Accounting Standards for Central Banks. London: Central Banking Publications. Dailami, Mansoor. 2000. “Managing Risks of Global Financial Market Integration.” Managing Financial and Corporate Distress: Lessons from Asia. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press. Doidge and others 2004.

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Edwards, Sebastian. 2001. “Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Markets Different?” NBER Working Paper 8076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Edwards, Sebastian. 2005. “Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals.” NBER Working Paper 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Eichengreen, Barry. 2001. “Capital Account Liberalization: What Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?” The World Bank Economic Review 15 (3): 341–65. Eichengreen, Barry, and Ricardo Hausmann. 1999. “Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility.” NBER Working Paper 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Frankel, Jeffrey, David Parsley, and Shang-Jin Wei. 2005. “Slow Pass-Through around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?” NBER Working Paper 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Fischer, Stanley. 2001. “Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 15 (2): 3–24. Fleming, J. Marcus. 1962. “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates.” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 9 (November): 369–72. Goldfajn, Ilan, and André Minella. 2005. “Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?” NBER Working Paper 11640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. Goldstein, Morris. 2002. “Managed Floating Plus.” Policy Analyses in International Economics 66. Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC. Hawkins, John, and Philip Turner. 2000. “Managing Foreign Debt and Liquidity Risks in Emerging Economies: An Overview.” BIS Policy Paper 8, Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Hawkins, Andrew. 2003. “Accounting for Financial Instruments.” In Accounting Standards for Central Banks. London: Central Banking Publications. Ho, Corrinne, and Robert McCauley. 2003 “Living with Flexible Exchange Rates: Issues and Recent Experience in Inflation-Targeting Emerging Market Economies.” BIS Working Paper 130, Bank for International Settlements, Basel. International Monetary Fund. Various years. Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Washington, DC: IMF. ———. 2006. “Inflation Targeting and the IMF.” Monetary and Financial Systems Department, Policy and Development Review Department, and Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Johnson, Simon, Peter Boone, Alasdair Breach, and Eric Friedman. 2000. “Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis.” Journal of Financial Economics 58 (1–2): 141–86. Kapur, Devesh. 2004. “Remittances: The New Development Mantra?” G-24 Discussion Paper Series 29, UNCTAD/GDS/MDPB/G24/2004/5, United Nations

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Rioja, Felix, and Neven Valev. “Does One Size Fit All? A Reexamination of the Finance and Growth Relationship.” Journal of Development Economics 74 (2): 429–47. Rodrik, Dani. 1999. The New Global Economy and Developing Countries: Making Openness Work. Washington, DC: Overseas Development Council. Schneider, Martin, and Aaron Tornell. 2004. “Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees, and Financial Crises.” Review of Economic Studies 71 (3): 883–913. Simmons, Beth A. 2000. “International Law and State Behavior: Commitment and Compliance in International Monetary Affairs.” American Political Science Review 94 (4): 819–35. Simmons, Beth A., and Zachary Elkins. 2004. “The Globalization of Liberalization: Policy Diffusion in the International Political Economy.” American Political Science Review 98 (1): 171–89. Stiglitz, Joseph. 2002. Globalization and Its Discontents. New York: W. W. Norton. World Bank. 1997. Private Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Road to Financial Integration. New York: Oxford University Press. Yang, Dean. 2004. “International Migration, Human Capital, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks.” Policy Research Working Paper 3578, World Bank, Washington, DC. Yang, Dean. 2005. “Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970–2001.” Unpublished paper. Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan. Zellner, A., and H. Theil. 1962. “Three-Stage Least Squares: Simultaneous Estimation of Simultaneous Equations.” Econometrica 30 (1): 54–78.

.

Statistical Appendix

T

he summary statistical tables have been significantly revised for this edition of Global Development Finance. The tables in this statistical appendix are now divided into three sets (see the list of tables on the next page for full details): •

•

•

External financing. These tables combine the IMF’s current account, foreign exchange reserve, and net inward foreign direct investment data with the World Bank’s portfolio equity and debtor reporting system (DRS) data to produce an overall tabulation of how regions finance themselves externally. External liabilities and assets. These tables provide a summary of the DRS debt data that is provided on a country-by-country basis in volume II. Key external debt ratios and country classifications. These tables provide a summary of indicators typically used by country risk analysts to monitor and classify countries. The two key ratios found in table A.29 are the present value

of each country’s future debt-service streams (PV) to (a) gross national income (GNI) and (b) to exports of goods and services. These variables are especially important in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, where countries are classified based on the ratio of the present value of public and publicly guaranteed debt to exports of goods and services. These variables are averaged over three years, 2002–4. These indicators do not represent an exhaustive set of useful indicators of external debt. They may not, for example, adequately capture the debt servicing capacity of countries in which government budget constraints are key to debt service difficulties. Moreover, rising external debt may not necessarily imply payment difficulties, especially if there is a commensurate increase in the country’s debt servicing capacity. Thus these indicators should be used in the broader context of a country-specific analysis of debt sustainability.

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Contents External financing A.1 A.2 A.3 A.4 A.5 A.6 A.7 A.8 A.9 A.10 A.11 A.12 A.13 A.14 A.15 A.16 A.17 A.18 A.19 A.20

External financing: all developing countries, 1998–2005 External financing: East Asia and Pacific, 1998–2005 External financing: Europe and Central Asia, 1998–2005 External financing: Latin America and the Carribean, 1998–2005 External financing: Middle East and North Africa, 1998–2005 External financing: South Asia, 1998–2005 External financing: Sub-Saharan Africa, 1998–2005 Net inward foreign direct investment, 1997–2005 Net inward portfolio equity flows, 1997–2005 Net inward debt flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 Net inward short-term debt flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 Net inward debt flows to public sector and publicly guaranteed borrowers, 1997–2005 Net inward debt flows to private sector borrowers, 1997–2005 Net inward debt flows from public sector creditors, 1997–2005 Net inward debt flows from private sector creditors, 1997–2005 Gross market-based capital flows to developing countries, 1998–2005 Gross international equity issuance by developing countries, 1998–2005 Gross international bond issuance in developing countries, 1998–2005 Gross international bank lending to developing countries, 1998–2005 Change in foreign exchange reserves, 1998–2005

Page 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192

External liabilities and assets A.21 A.22 A.23 A.24 A.25 A.26 A.27 A.28

Total external debt of developing countries, 1997–2005 Total external debt of developing countries: medium and long-term, 1997–2005 Total external debt of developing countries: short-term, 1997–2005 Total external debt of developing countries: owed by public and publicly guaranteed borrowers, 1997–2005 Total external debt of developing countries: owed by private sector borrowers, 1997–2005 Total external debt of developing countries: owed to public sector creditors, 1997–2005 Total external debt of developing countries: owed to private sector creditors, 1997–2005 Gross foreign exchange reserves of developing countries, 1997–2005

193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200

Key external debt ratios and country classifications A.29 A.30

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Key external debt ratios for developing countries Classification of countries by region and level of income

201 204

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.1 External financing: all developing countries, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

–89.2 –1.6

–3.5 –0.1

47.8 0.8

20.5 0.4

72.0 1.2

123.8 1.8

158.3 2.0

245.8 2.6

179.4 172.4 6.9 54.3 34.3 8.7 14.1 11.5 19.9

195.9 183.3 12.6 16.3 13.9 8.8 –2.2 7.3 2.5

182.9 168.8 14.1 –1.0 –5.7 7.9 –10.7 –2.9 4.7

183.3 176.9 6.4 –1.5 27.4 7.5 19.5 0.4 –28.9

166.1 160.3 5.8 10.7 5.2 –0.2 14.0 –8.6 5.5

186.8 161.6 25.2 72.8 –12.3 –0.9 2.4 –13.8 85.1

248.8 211.5 37.3 119.1 –28.7 1.3 –14.7 –15.4 147.8

298.9 237.5 61.4 120.1 –71.4 0.7 –41.1 –31.0 191.6

85.7 40.6 50.3 –5.2 –65.8 –128.1 –16.4

22.0 30.6 –7.1 –1.5 –19.6 –175.6 –33.2

11.5 20.5 –5.2 –3.8 –6.8 –184.4 –45.4

–6.2 11.0 –10.8 –6.3 –22.7 –120.6 –81.7

1.2 10.8 –2.8 –6.8 4.2 –76.9 –171.9

30.2 26.4 9.8 –5.9 54.9 –91.8 –291.6

77.8 43.0 39.4 –4.6 70.0 –121.4 –404.8

122.3 61.7 67.4 –6.7 69.3 –271.9 –393.0

26.7

28.5

28.7

27.9

32.5

43.7

50.3

52.6

199.3 61.1

198.3 42.4

187.7 23.0

154.4 55.3

171.5 37.7

271.9 31.4

396.6 21.6

490.5 –18.8

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

173

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.2 External financing: East Asia and Pacific, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005e

59.8 4.5

60.3 4.2

53.7 3.4

39.8 2.4

61.2 3.2

74.9 3.5

93.6 3.8

143.4 4.9

54.7 57.8 –3.1 –33.5 14.7 2.8 7.0 4.8 –48.2

53.0 50.8 2.2 –11.7 12.5 2.4 1.9 8.2 –24.2

50.9 44.3 6.6 –16.0 7.0 1.8 1.2 3.9 –22.9

50.6 48.5 2.0 –8.2 3.2 0.9 –2.5 4.8 –11.3

61.3 57.2 4.0 –10.3 –7.9 –1.7 –2.7 –3.5 –2.4

72.2 59.8 12.4 1.9 –7.4 –1.5 –0.5 –5.4 9.3

82.1 64.6 17.6 37.8 –5.5 –1.9 –1.6 –1.9 43.3

91.8 65.3 26.5 43.9 –1.9 –1.2 –1.6 0.9 45.8

–3.5 1.0 –4.8 0.3 –44.7 –60.3 –20.7

–10.9 0.9 –12.0 0.2 –13.3 –72.3 –29.3

–13.1 –0.7 –11.3 –1.0 –9.9 –78.5 –10.1

–13.0 0.4 –11.8 –1.6 1.7 –34.5 –47.7

–12.5 0.1 –10.3 –2.3 10.1 –24.1 –88.0

–9.2 2.5 –8.6 –3.1 18.5 –12.3 –136.7

9.1 9.7 1.4 –2.0 34.2 23.4 –237.0

15.8 12.3 8.1 –4.6 30.0 –61.2 –217.9

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.7

6.5 17.1

28.8 15.0

28.0 9.5

39.2 5.3

58.9 –5.7

81.5 –4.9

125.4 –2.7

137.7 0.8

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

174

2004

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.3 External financing: Europe and Central Asia, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

–24.5 –2.5

–1.3 –0.2

16.3 1.8

17.5 1.8

5.6 0.5

–2.0 –0.1

4.2 0.3

24.8 1.2

31.4 27.4 4.0 42.9 7.5 1.5 5.3 0.6 35.4

31.7 29.7 2.0 18.6 –0.6 1.9 –3.1 0.7 19.2

31.5 30.2 1.3 20.0 0.0 2.1 –0.7 –1.4 20.0

33.0 32.7 0.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 6.1 –5.9 0.1

34.8 34.9 –0.1 27.6 2.7 1.0 4.6 –2.9 24.9

36.4 35.9 0.5 57.9 –6.8 –0.7 –2.0 –4.1 64.7

66.5 62.4 4.2 83.2 –10.5 0.4 –5.9 –5.0 93.7

77.9 75.6 2.3 82.9 –30.9 0.0 –9.7 –21.2 113.8

29.7 16.0 14.6 –1.0 5.7 –44.7 –5.1

17.6 8.2 10.1 –0.7 1.6 –42.6 –6.4

11.4 5.3 7.7 –1.6 8.6 –51.1 –16.6

5.5 1.6 6.1 –2.2 –5.3 –41.7 –11.1

21.1 3.9 18.7 –1.5 3.8 –24.2 –43.7

32.2 10.4 23.4 –1.6 32.5 –31.4 –60.9

64.6 25.7 40.6 –1.7 29.0 –74.6 –79.3

81.3 34.6 48.5 –1.8 32.4 –90.9 –94.7

5.4

8.2

8.6

7.1

8.5

8.6

10.3

9.7

66.7 12.9

50.9 7.6

51.5 8.5

33.1 9.3

59.7 11.2

101.1 1.8

160.2 –0.2

191.7 –21.2

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

175

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.4 External financing: Latin America and the Carribean, 1998–2005 $ billions

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

–89.4 –4.5

–55.4 –3.1

–46.8 –2.4

–51.9 –2.7

–14.9 –0.9

8.4 0.5

19.0 0.9

33.9 1.5

71.9 74.1 –2.2 37.9 10.9 2.4 2.5 6.0 27.0

84.7 88.3 –3.6 12.8 1.6 2.1 –0.9 0.4 11.2

78.8 79.3 –0.6 –4.7 –11.1 2.0 –10.7 –2.4 6.4

73.6 71.1 2.5 6.2 20.4 1.3 15.6 3.5 –14.1

49.6 48.2 1.4 –8.6 12.8 –0.3 11.9 1.3 –21.4

44.5 41.1 3.4 10.2 4.9 –0.4 5.6 –0.3 5.4

60.2 60.8 –0.6 –11.4 –10.5 –1.0 –6.3 –3.2 –1.0

73.9 61.4 12.5 –15.9 –36.5 –1.8 –28.8 –5.9 20.5

55.3 17.9 39.1 –1.7 –28.3 –29.6 9.2

19.5 20.1 –1.4 0.8 –8.3 –49.7 7.6

8.0 8.3 0.5 –0.8 –1.6 –24.3 –3.0

–0.6 2.9 –2.0 –1.4 –13.6 –25.1 –2.9

–11.4 –0.4 –9.1 –1.9 –10.0 –25.4 –0.8

3.2 11.3 –7.2 –0.9 2.2 –29.9 –33.2

–3.9 –1.1 –2.8 0.0 2.9 –42.9 –24.9

18.5 14.1 4.4 0.0 2.0 –59.7 –32.1

3.2

2.9

2.5

3.2

2.8

3.0

4.9

3.2

98.9 14.1

95.8 4.5

85.2 –8.6

59.5 23.6

28.2 15.6

49.9 7.9

59.3 –5.5

94.4 –33.3

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

176

2004

2005e

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.5 External financing: Middle East and North Africa, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

–9.7 –2.9

6.2 1.8

25.3 7.0

15.4 4.0

12.0 3.1

28.3 6.7

43.8 9.3

67.2 11.9

2.9 2.7 0.2 3.6 –1.6 –0.2 0.0 –1.4 5.2

3.1 2.4 0.7 –3.0 –2.5 0.2 0.0 –2.8 –0.5

4.4 4.1 0.2 –3.8 –2.7 –0.3 –0.2 –2.2 –1.1

3.3 3.4 –0.1 0.3 –1.2 –0.1 –0.1 –1.0 1.5

3.5 3.7 –0.2 2.3 –2.5 –0.3 –0.3 –1.9 4.8

5.7 5.6 0.1 –0.4 –2.5 –0.3 –0.6 –1.6 2.1

6.0 5.3 0.6 –1.8 –4.1 –0.6 –0.5 –3.0 2.3

10.0 9.1 0.9 2.2 –2.4 –0.2 –0.4 –1.8 4.6

1.8 1.3 2.0 –1.5 3.3 1.5 1.7

–1.4 1.4 –1.6 –1.2 1.0 –7.4 1.2

0.8 1.2 0.4 –0.9 –1.9 –21.1 –4.8

3.8 4.4 –0.1 –0.4 –2.3 –9.5 –9.5

4.5 5.0 –0.3 –0.2 0.3 –5.8 –12.0

0.2 0.7 –1.0 0.6 1.9 –11.6 –22.0

2.3 3.3 –0.8 –0.2 0.0 –33.7 –14.3

3.7 2.2 1.6 –0.1 0.9 –58.2 –21.3

3.5

2.7

3.1

2.2

2.4

3.6

4.5

4.1

8.1 1.8

2.6 0.2

3.3 0.3

4.8 1.1

8.3 –0.1

7.8 1.2

8.3 0.4

14.6 1.7

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

177

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.6 External financing: South Asia, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005e

–9.5 –1.8

–5.3 –0.9

–6.3 –1.1

2.2 0.4

11.4 1.8

10.6 1.4

–4.6 –0.6

–24.1 –2.6

2.9 3.5 –0.6 4.7 2.3 0.8 –0.4 2.0 2.4

5.5 3.1 2.4 0.5 2.5 1.0 –0.1 1.6 –2.0

6.7 4.4 2.4 3.5 0.5 0.7 –0.3 0.0 3.0

8.8 6.1 2.7 –0.9 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.4 –3.1

7.8 6.7 1.0 0.0 –2.4 –1.0 0.1 –1.5 2.4

13.7 5.6 8.0 0.3 –1.7 –0.2 –0.1 –1.5 2.1

15.9 7.2 8.8 7.7 1.0 2.0 –0.3 –0.7 6.7

20.6 8.4 12.2 6.4 3.4 1.6 –0.1 1.9 3.0

3.7 4.2 0.7 –1.1 –1.3 4.8 –3.0

–2.1 –1.2 –0.5 –0.4 0.1 4.3 –5.0

3.9 5.4 –2.0 0.5 –0.9 0.8 –4.7

–2.0 –0.2 –1.4 –0.3 –1.1 0.1 –10.2

0.6 –0.5 1.2 –0.1 1.8 7.8 –27.0

1.3 –3.0 4.4 0.0 0.7 10.4 –35.0

3.9 4.1 0.0 –0.2 2.9 8.2 –27.2

0.6 –1.6 2.2 0.0 2.4 3.4 –6.3

2.1

2.3

2.1

3.2

2.5

3.9

3.5

4.5

5.3 4.5

3.5 4.8

9.7 2.6

5.8 5.3

10.1 0.1

15.8 2.2

22.7 4.5

23.6 7.9

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

178

2004

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.7 External financing: Sub-Saharan Africa, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

Current account balance as % GDP Financial flows: Net equity flows Net FDI inflows Net portfolio equity inflows Net debt flows Official creditors World Bank IMF Others Private creditors Net medium- and long-term debt flows Bonds Banks Others Net short-term debt flows Balancing item * Change in reserves (– = increase) Memo items: Bilateral aid grants (ex technical cooperation grants) Net private flows (debt+equity) Net official flows (aid+debt)

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

–15.9 –5.1

–7.9 –2.6

5.7 1.8

–2.4 –0.8

–3.4 –1.0

3.8 0.9

2.4 0.5

0.6 0.1

15.5 6.9 8.7 –1.3 0.5 1.3 –0.3 –0.5 –1.8

18.0 9.0 9.0 –0.9 0.4 1.1 0.0 –0.7 –1.3

10.7 6.5 4.2 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.1 –0.8 –0.7

14.0 15.0 –1.0 –1.4 0.6 1.8 0.1 –1.3 –2.0

9.1 9.5 –0.4 –0.2 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 –2.8

14.3 13.6 0.7 2.8 1.2 2.2 –0.1 –0.9 1.5

18.0 11.3 6.7 3.6 0.8 2.5 –0.1 –1.5 2.8

24.7 17.6 7.2 0.6 –3.2 2.2 –0.4 –5.0 3.8

–1.3 0.3 –1.3 –0.2 –0.5 0.2 1.5

–0.7 1.2 –1.7 –0.2 –0.6 –7.9 –1.3

0.4 1.0 –0.6 0.0 –1.1 –10.2 –6.2

0.1 1.9 –1.5 –0.3 –2.1 –9.9 –0.3

–1.0 2.7 –3.0 –0.7 –1.8 –5.2 –0.3

2.5 4.6 –1.2 –0.9 –1.0 –16.9 –3.9

1.7 1.2 0.9 –0.4 1.1 –1.7 –22.2

2.3 0.0 2.5 –0.2 1.5 –5.3 –20.7

10.1

9.9

10.0

10.0

14.0

22.0

24.2

28.4

13.7 10.6

16.7 10.3

9.9 10.7

12.1 10.7

6.3 16.6

15.8 23.3

20.7 25.1

28.5 25.2

Note: e = estimate. * Combination of errors and omissions and net acquisition of foreign assets (including FDI) by developing countries.

179

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.8 Net inward foreign direct investment, 1997–2005 $ billions

All developing countries

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

168.7

172.4

183.3

168.8

176.9

160.3

161.6

211.5

237.5

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

62.1 44.2 4.7 5.1 1.2 3.9

57.8 43.8 -0.2 2.2 2.3 7.3

50.8 38.8 -1.9 3.9 1.7 6.1

44.3 38.4 -4.6 3.8 1.3 3.4

48.5 44.2 -3.0 0.6 1.0 3.9

57.2 49.3 0.1 3.2 1.8 1.0

59.8 53.5 -0.6 2.5 0.3 1.9

64.6 54.9 1.0 4.6 0.5 1.4

65.3 53.0 2.3 4.2 1.1 3.1

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Ukraine Turkey

24.6 1.3 4.2 4.9 4.9 0.6 0.8

27.4 3.7 3.3 6.4 2.8 0.7 0.9

29.8 6.3 3.3 7.3 3.3 0.5 0.8

30.2 5.0 2.8 9.3 2.7 0.6 1.0

32.7 5.6 3.9 5.7 2.7 0.8 3.3

34.9 8.5 3.0 4.1 3.5 0.7 1.1

35.9 2.0 2.2 4.1 8.0 1.4 1.8

62.4 4.5 4.6 12.6 12.5 1.7 2.7

75.6 11.0 4.0 7.7 14.6 7.8 7.2

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

66.7 9.2 19.7 5.3 12.8 6.2

74.1 7.3 31.9 4.6 12.4 5.0

88.3 24.0 28.6 8.8 13.4 2.9

79.3 10.4 32.8 4.9 17.1 4.7

71.1 2.2 22.5 4.2 27.7 3.7

48.2 2.1 16.6 2.6 15.5 0.8

41.1 1.7 10.1 4.4 12.3 2.7

60.8 4.1 18.2 7.6 17.4 1.5

61.4 4.7 15.2 7.2 17.8 3.0

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Morocco

2.1 0.3 0.9 0.0

2.7 0.5 1.1 0.0

2.4 0.5 1.1 0.0

4.1 0.4 1.2 0.2

3.4 1.2 0.5 0.1

3.7 1.1 0.6 0.1

5.6 0.6 0.2 2.3

5.3 0.9 1.3 0.8

9.1 1.4 3.1 1.0

South Asia India Pakistan

4.9 3.6 0.7

3.5 2.6 0.5

3.1 2.2 0.5

4.4 3.6 0.3

6.1 5.5 0.4

6.7 5.6 0.8

5.6 4.6 0.5

7.2 5.3 1.1

8.4 5.6 2.2

Sub-Saharan Africa Angola South Africa

8.3 0.4 3.8

6.9 1.1 0.6

9.0 2.5 1.5

6.5 0.9 1.0

15.0 2.1 7.3

9.5 1.7 0.7

13.6 3.5 0.8

11.3 1.4 0.6

17.6 1.5 6.3

Note: e = estimate. The data do not match GDF Volume II because of revisions of the estimates.

180

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.9 Net inward portfolio equity flows, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

30.6

6.9

12.6

14.1

6.4

5.8

25.2

37.3

61.4

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

4.1 5.7 –5.0 0.0 –0.4 3.9

–3.1 0.8 –4.4 0.0 0.3 0.3

2.2 0.6 –0.8 0.0 1.4 0.9

6.6 6.9 –1.0 0.0 –0.2 0.9

2.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4

4.0 2.2 0.9 –0.1 0.4 0.5

12.4 7.7 1.1 1.3 0.5 1.8

17.6 10.9 2.1 4.4 0.4 –0.3

26.5 19.0 –0.2 0.9 1.5 5.3

4.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.0

4.0 1.1 0.6 1.7 0.7 –0.5

2.0 0.1 1.2 0.0 –0.3 0.4

1.3 0.6 –0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5

0.3 0.6 0.1 –0.3 0.5 –0.1

–0.1 –0.3 –0.1 –0.5 2.6 0.0

0.5 1.1 0.3 –0.8 0.4 0.9

4.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 0.2 1.4

5.8 –1.5 0.0 1.3 –0.2 5.7

13.3 1.4 5.1 1.7 3.2 1.4

–2.2 –0.2 –1.8 0.6 –0.7 0.2

–3.6 –10.8 2.6 0.5 3.8 0.4

–0.6 –3.2 3.1 –0.4 0.4 –0.6

2.5 0.0 2.5 –0.2 0.2 0.0

1.4 –0.1 2.0 –0.3 –0.1 0.0

3.4 0.1 3.0 0.3 –0.1 0.1

–0.6 –0.1 2.1 0.0 –2.5 –0.2

8.5 0.0 6.5 1.7 3.4 0.1

Middle East and North Africa Egypt, Arab Rep. of

0.7 0.5

0.2 –0.2

0.7 0.7

0.2 0.3

–0.1 0.0

–0.2 –0.2

0.1 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.9 0.7

South Asia India

2.9 2.6

–0.6 –0.6

2.4 2.3

2.4 2.3

2.7 2.9

1.0 1.0

8.0 8.2

8.8 8.8

12.2 12.2

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

5.6 5.5

8.7 8.6

9.0 9.0

4.2 4.2

–1.0 –1.0

–0.4 –0.4

0.7 0.7

6.7 6.7

7.2 7.1

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

Note: e = estimate. The data do not match GDF Volume II because of revisions of the estimates.

181

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.10 Net inward debt flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

All developing countries

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

107.2

54.3

16.3

–1.0

–1.5

10.7

72.8

119.1

120.1

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

44.9 18.5 10.1 8.4 7.5 –1.3

–33.5 –14.2 –4.6 –3.6 –4.1 –7.9

–11.7 –1.6 –3.8 –0.7 3.7 –9.4

–16.0 –5.2 –0.7 0.3 2.6 –13.7

–8.2 0.0 –6.0 5.2 2.1 –10.0

–10.3 4.0 –7.5 3.4 –0.8 –10.0

1.9 13.5 –5.5 –1.5 0.6 –7.5

37.8 37.3 –3.0 3.5 –0.7 –1.4

43.9 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

35.6 1.0 3.3 –1.4 3.8 7.6 4.2

42.9 0.2 1.4 2.7 5.1 21.9 5.5

18.6 0.3 –0.2 2.0 4.8 –4.2 10.9

20.0 0.5 –1.7 0.4 0.8 –2.8 18.2

2.3 –0.2 –0.5 1.7 2.5 –3.9 –4.5

27.6 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.2 –2.6 13.2

57.9 1.0 3.5 4.4 7.0 12.8 4.9

83.2 1.7 5.2 14.6 –2.2 10.8 13.4

82.9 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

25.2 17.1 –1.3 1.8 3.6 –4.9 2.6

37.9 11.7 6.7 4.0 0.8 9.0 1.7

12.8 6.4 –4.9 1.7 1.3 6.9 0.2

–4.7 4.3 –1.0 2.9 –0.2 –15.8 0.9

6.2 –5.6 5.5 0.5 2.8 –2.9 –1.1

–8.6 –1.8 –1.6 1.6 –0.9 –8.2 –3.2

10.2 –0.1 3.9 1.9 0.6 –1.3 0.1

–11.4 –4.1 –11.2 0.5 0.6 –2.9 0.4

–15.9 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

–3.5 –0.4 0.6 1.1

3.6 –1.7 1.1 1.7

–3.0 –1.9 –0.6 1.5

–3.8 –1.6 –0.7 1.8

0.3 –2.0 0.1 2.7

2.3 –1.4 –0.7 4.4

–0.4 –1.3 –1.1 1.2

–1.8 –2.5 –2.0 3.4

2.2 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

0.7 –1.6 1.6

4.7 3.0 0.7

0.5 –1.1 0.7

3.5 3.4 –0.3

–0.9 –1.9 0.3

0.0 –1.4 0.6

0.3 0.0 –1.1

7.7 7.1 –0.8

6.4 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

4.4 –0.4

–1.3 –0.3

–0.9 –0.7

0.0 1.2

–1.4 –0.8

–0.2 –0.5

2.8 2.7

3.6 1.2

0.6 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

182

1998

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A P P E N D I X

Table A.11 Net inward short-term debt flows to developing countries, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

All developing countries

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

9.2

–65.8

–19.6

–6.8

–22.7

4.2

54.9

70.0

69.3

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

4.7 6.1 0.6 3.9 3.8 –9.9

–44.7 –14.1 –9.7 –6.5 –5.9 –8.2

–13.3 –2.2 –1.6 –2.5 –0.9 –6.2

–9.9 –2.1 1.5 –1.4 0.5 –8.5

1.7 1.8 –1.0 2.2 0.5 –1.7

10.1 9.6 0.2 1.6 –0.4 –1.3

18.5 18.4 –0.9 0.3 0.6 –1.0

34.2 29.3 1.6 2.8 –1.1 0.5

30.0 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

10.9 0.8 2.4 0.0 2.5 –1.4 0.6

5.7 –0.2 –0.5 1.4 3.3 –0.5 3.2

1.6 –0.3 1.1 –1.2 2.8 –1.0 2.3

8.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 –1.7 2.0 5.4

–5.3 –0.2 0.6 0.5 1.5 2.5 –12.6

3.8 0.6 –0.3 1.0 0.4 –1.6 0.1

32.5 0.6 1.6 2.5 4.8 9.6 4.4

29.0 0.6 3.2 3.3 –2.7 5.0 8.9

32.4 — — — — — —

–7.8 8.5 –16.0 –1.5 –0.1 –2.0 1.5

–28.3 –1.0 –24.0 –0.4 0.5 –1.5 –2.0

–8.3 –1.5 0.7 –0.8 –2.3 –2.3 –0.1

–1.6 –1.1 1.8 1.9 –1.1 –5.1 2.0

–13.6 –8.3 –2.5 –0.9 0.4 –4.4 0.7

–10.0 –0.4 –4.9 0.5 0.4 –4.7 –0.2

2.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 –0.1 –0.7 –0.2

2.9 –0.3 0.7 0.2 1.8 –0.1 0.0

2.0 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

0.0 –0.2 0.6 0.1

3.3 0.0 1.3 0.2

1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

–1.9 0.0 –0.2 0.3

–2.3 0.0 –0.7 0.1

0.3 –0.1 0.1 –0.1

1.9 0.0 0.3 0.6

0.0 0.3 –0.9 0.8

0.9 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

–2.1 –1.7 –0.3

–1.3 –0.7 –0.5

0.1 –0.4 –0.1

–0.9 –0.5 –0.3

–1.1 –0.7 –0.2

1.8 1.4 0.2

0.7 0.9 –0.3

2.9 2.5 0.0

2.4 — —

3.5 0.1

–0.5 0.5

–0.6 –0.6

–1.1 0.3

–2.1 –1.2

–1.8 –1.0

–1.0 0.0

1.1 0.6

1.5 —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

183

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.12 Net inward debt flows to public sector and publicly guaranteed borrowers, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

42.0

69.4

31.0

9.3

20.1

4.1

–11.2

–3.1

–36.5

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

29.0 11.1 3.6 1.7 1.8 9.4

19.1 2.5 9.0 0.5 1.6 4.6

11.1 1.6 2.0 0.9 4.6 1.9

4.7 –1.1 0.9 1.4 3.0 –0.2

–0.8 0.0 –2.2 3.1 0.2 –2.7

–11.7 –5.3 –3.1 2.0 0.7 –6.2

–12.4 –5.7 –0.9 –2.1 0.8 –5.4

–2.5 1.5 –4.4 0.0 1.4 –2.2

2.5 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

15.6 0.2 1.0 –1.8 0.5 7.1 2.5

21.8 0.3 1.0 –0.4 –0.1 16.2 –1.0

7.0 0.4 –1.0 1.5 –0.3 –3.5 4.6

5.2 0.2 –1.0 –1.4 –1.4 –3.9 11.3

–1.5 –0.1 –0.9 –0.8 –3.3 –7.0 9.2

3.6 –0.3 0.2 –0.8 0.1 –4.1 7.5

–4.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.7 –7.2 –1.7

–0.2 –0.7 1.7 3.2 0.5 –7.1 –2.1

–13.8 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

–2.0 4.9 –0.3 –0.3 1.1 –9.9 0.4

25.2 8.4 12.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2

12.4 8.7 1.5 0.6 3.4 –3.7 –0.6

–2.9 6.4 –3.4 –0.4 0.9 –9.1 –0.5

19.4 6.7 9.6 0.4 2.5 –3.0 –1.7

9.5 –1.5 10.4 1.1 –1.3 –1.9 –2.6

9.3 –0.9 3.1 1.1 1.7 –0.6 0.3

–2.5 –2.3 –5.2 1.3 0.4 –1.4 1.0

–20.0 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

–4.1 –0.3 –0.1 0.5

–1.9 –1.7 –0.5 1.7

–2.9 –2.0 –0.7 1.4

–2.6 –1.6 –0.6 1.4

2.3 –1.9 0.8 2.5

2.2 –1.4 –0.8 4.7

–2.3 –1.7 –1.1 0.6

–1.8 –2.8 –0.8 2.5

–1.4 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

0.8 –1.5 1.6

5.5 3.6 0.9

1.4 –0.1 1.2

4.5 3.8 0.3

0.5 –1.2 0.9

–2.4 –3.4 0.4

–2.8 –3.7 –0.5

0.8 0.5 –0.8

–1.8 — —

2.8 1.1

–0.4 –1.0

1.8 1.6

0.4 0.0

0.2 –0.4

2.9 1.4

1.6 0.0

3.1 1.1

–2.1 —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

184

1998

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.13 Net inward debt flows to private sector borrowers, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

All developing countries

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

65.2

–15.1

–14.6

–10.3

–21.6

6.6

84.0

122.2

156.7

15.9 7.4 6.5 6.7 5.8 –10.7

–52.6 –16.7 –13.6 –4.0 –5.7 –12.5

–22.8 –3.2 –5.8 –1.6 –0.9 –11.3

–20.6 –4.1 –1.6 –1.1 –0.5 –13.5

–7.4 –0.1 –3.8 2.1 1.9 –7.3

1.4 9.2 –4.4 1.4 –1.5 –3.7

14.3 19.4 –4.6 0.6 –0.1 –2.0

40.3 35.8 1.3 3.6 –2.1 0.8

41.4 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

20.0 0.8 2.3 0.5 3.3 0.5 1.8

21.0 –0.1 0.4 3.1 5.2 2.4 6.5

11.6 –0.1 0.8 0.5 5.1 –0.7 6.3

14.8 0.3 –0.6 1.8 2.2 1.1 6.8

3.8 –0.1 0.4 2.5 5.8 3.1 –13.7

24.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.5 5.7

62.4 1.0 3.0 5.8 5.3 20.0 4.7

83.3 2.4 3.5 11.4 –2.7 17.8 15.5

96.7 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

27.2 12.3 –1.0 2.1 2.5 5.0 2.2

12.7 3.4 –5.3 3.5 –0.2 8.3 1.5

0.4 –2.4 –6.4 1.1 –2.1 10.5 0.7

–1.8 –2.1 2.4 3.3 –1.1 –6.6 1.4

–13.2 –12.3 –4.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6

–18.1 –0.5 –11.9 0.5 0.4 –6.2 –0.6

0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 –1.1 –0.7 –0.2

–8.9 –1.8 –6.0 –0.9 0.2 –1.5 –0.6

4.1 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

0.6 –0.2 0.6 0.6

5.5 0.0 1.5 0.1

–0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1

–1.2 0.0 –0.1 0.4

–1.9 0.0 –0.7 0.2

0.1 –0.1 0.1 –0.2

2.0 0.5 0.0 0.6

0.0 0.4 –1.2 0.9

3.6 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

–0.1 –0.1 0.0

–0.8 –0.5 –0.2

–0.9 –1.0 –0.5

–1.1 –0.4 –0.6

–1.4 –0.7 –0.5

2.3 2.0 0.1

3.2 3.7 –0.6

6.9 6.6 –0.1

8.2 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

1.6 –1.5

–0.9 0.7

–2.7 –2.3

–0.4 1.3

–1.6 –0.4

–3.1 –1.9

1.2 2.6

0.5 0.1

2.7 —

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

185

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.14 Net inward debt flows from public sector creditors, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

13.1

34.3

13.9

–5.7

27.4

5.2

–12.3

–28.7

–71.4

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

17.3 4.3 3.6 –0.2 0.6 8.4

14.7 2.3 8.5 0.2 0.7 1.8

12.5 3.4 4.8 0.6 0.2 2.5

7.0 1.5 2.9 0.6 0.3 0.3

3.2 2.2 –0.8 2.1 –0.3 –1.5

–7.9 –1.2 –1.4 –0.2 –0.5 –5.5

–7.4 –3.2 –0.3 –0.1 –0.6 –4.5

–5.5 0.0 –3.7 0.7 –1.1 –2.6

–1.9 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

6.7 0.3 –0.1 –0.1 –0.1 4.2 –0.2

7.5 0.4 0.0 –1.1 –0.5 6.3 –0.4

–0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 –0.4 –3.0 –0.1

0.0 0.2 0.1 –0.2 –0.5 –3.3 4.4

2.2 –0.3 0.2 –0.2 –4.1 –4.8 10.4

2.7 –0.3 0.0 0.0 –1.1 –3.3 6.7

–6.8 0.1 0.1 –0.5 –1.7 –4.3 –1.3

–10.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 –2.8 –4.9 –3.4

–30.9 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

–8.7 –0.1 –1.2 –0.4 –0.5 –8.0 –0.3

10.9 1.1 9.5 –0.1 0.2 –1.9 1.0

1.6 –0.1 4.5 –0.1 1.0 –5.3 –0.1

–11.1 0.9 –8.5 –0.1 0.1 –4.8 –0.3

20.4 10.3 9.5 –0.1 1.1 –0.7 –1.1

12.8 –1.4 12.1 –0.3 0.0 0.2 –0.6

4.9 –0.9 3.0 –0.1 2.1 –0.3 –0.6

–10.5 –2.2 –7.3 –0.1 0.1 –1.2 –0.4

–36.5 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

–4.0 0.3 0.0 0.1

–1.6 –0.4 –0.2 0.2

–2.5 –0.4 –0.5 0.1

–2.7 –0.4 –0.6 0.1

–1.2 –1.0 –0.7 0.1

–2.5 –1.3 –0.8 0.0

–2.5 –1.3 –0.8 0.6

–4.1 –2.3 –0.9 0.0

–2.4 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

0.3 –1.0 0.7

2.3 0.6 0.9

2.5 0.8 1.2

0.5 –0.3 0.3

2.2 0.4 1.1

–2.4 –3.8 0.9

–1.7 –2.7 –0.3

1.0 0.9 –1.0

3.4 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

1.4 –0.4

0.5 –0.4

0.4 0.0

0.7 0.1

0.6 0.0

2.6 0.0

1.2 0.1

0.8 0.0

–3.2 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

186

1998

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.15 Net inward debt flows from private sector creditors, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

94.1

19.9

2.5

4.7

–28.9

5.5

85.1

147.8

191.6

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

27.6 14.2 6.5 8.6 7.0 –9.7

–48.2 –16.5 –13.0 –3.8 –4.8 –9.6

–24.2 –5.0 –8.6 –1.3 3.5 –11.9

–22.9 –6.8 –3.6 –0.3 2.3 –14.0

–11.3 –2.2 –5.2 3.1 2.4 –8.5

–2.4 5.2 –6.1 3.6 –0.3 –4.4

9.3 16.9 –5.1 –1.4 1.2 –3.0

43.3 37.3 0.7 2.8 0.4 1.2

45.8 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

28.8 0.7 3.3 –1.3 3.9 3.4 4.4

35.3 –0.2 1.4 3.8 5.6 12.3 5.9

19.2 –0.1 –0.2 1.8 5.2 –1.2 11.0

20.0 0.2 –1.7 0.7 1.3 0.5 13.8

0.1 0.1 –0.7 1.9 6.6 0.9 –14.9

24.9 0.9 1.7 0.6 2.2 0.8 6.5

64.7 0.9 3.3 6.8 8.7 17.0 4.3

93.7 1.6 5.2 14.2 0.6 15.7 16.8

113.8 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

33.8 17.3 –0.1 2.2 4.1 3.1 2.9

27.0 10.7 –2.1 4.1 0.6 10.8 0.7

11.2 6.4 –9.4 1.8 0.2 12.2 0.3

6.4 3.4 7.5 3.0 –0.3 –11.0 1.2

–14.1 –16.0 –4.0 0.6 1.7 –2.3 0.0

–21.4 –0.5 –13.6 1.9 –0.9 –8.4 –2.6

5.4 0.8 0.9 2.0 –1.4 –1.0 0.7

–1.0 –1.8 –3.9 0.6 0.5 –1.7 0.8

20.5 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

0.5 –0.7 0.6 1.0

5.2 –1.3 1.3 1.6

–0.5 –1.5 –0.1 1.4

–1.1 –1.2 –0.1 1.7

1.5 –1.0 0.8 2.6

4.8 –0.1 0.1 4.4

2.1 0.1 –0.3 0.6

2.3 –0.2 –1.1 3.4

4.6 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

0.4 –0.6 0.9

2.4 2.5 –0.2

–2.0 –1.9 –0.6

3.0 3.6 –0.7

–3.1 –2.3 –0.7

2.4 2.4 –0.3

2.1 2.8 –0.8

6.7 6.2 0.2

3.0 — —

3.0 0.0

–1.8 0.1

–1.3 –0.7

–0.7 1.2

–2.0 –0.8

–2.8 –0.5

1.5 2.6

2.8 1.1

3.8 —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

187

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.16 Gross market-based capital flows to developing countries, 1998–2005 $ billions

All developing countries

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

160.4

149.7

201.8

135.9

131.6

186.0

249.4

385.2

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

25.5 9.2 0.7 3.4 5.8 6.4

27.0 8.3 2.4 7.4 7.2 1.5

48.5 29.1 1.1 6.8 7.3 4.2

19.6 7.5 1.0 5.1 3.6 2.5

41.1 15.8 1.6 12.8 6.5 3.6

50.6 24.8 6.5 7.3 7.1 4.3

55.8 31.9 4.1 10.5 5.4 3.6

84.8 50.1 7.2 8.2 8.2 8.4

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

35.3 3.0 3.6 3.6 8.3 9.9

29.4 1.4 3.4 4.4 0.7 12.8

40.4 1.4 2.1 3.6 5.3 22.3

24.9 0.8 2.7 4.7 4.6 6.8

32.3 0.7 1.8 6.5 9.9 7.3

50.0 2.5 5.4 7.9 16.4 7.5

81.4 4.6 8.7 6.9 26.8 14.9

142.3 3.4 10.3 19.1 62.8 24.1

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

81.8 25.4 17.8 4.2 19.3 7.6

72.5 20.1 15.1 9.6 17.4 1.8

87.7 18.8 27.9 7.7 20.9 2.9

71.9 6.3 23.7 6.1 18.4 4.8

40.8 1.9 13.2 3.6 13.2 0.6

60.6 0.7 17.8 5.2 26.7 4.1

68.2 0.8 23.4 8.0 22.6 4.7

94.9 2.5 30.5 10.2 30.2 6.5

Middle East and North Africa Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

4.8 1.8 1.5

8.6 4.5 1.4

6.4 1.1 1.9

8.5 2.4 3.3

8.5 1.0 1.0

5.6 0.4 0.2

15.5 1.7 4.4

22.4 6.7 1.8

South Asia India Pakistan

5.3 4.3 0.9

4.1 3.7 0.0

5.8 5.4 0.0

3.0 2.6 0.2

2.1 1.6 0.4

5.8 4.1 1.5

16.7 15.1 1.3

25.8 24.1 1.3

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

7.7 4.9

8.1 6.0

13.0 10.4

7.9 4.9

6.9 3.7

13.6 8.3

11.9 6.2

15.2 8.4

Note: e = estimate.

188

1998

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.17 Gross international equity issuance by developing countries, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

8.0

10.1

35.5

5.6

10.7

17.1

35.2

56.2

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

4.3 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.3

6.0 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.8

21.5 21.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0

3.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2

7.2 5.4 0.3 1.3 0.1 0.1

12.1 8.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.5

20.6 17.7 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.1

30.0 26.6 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.3

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

2.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.8

1.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0

3.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4

0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0

1.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.1

1.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1

5.5 0.2 0.8 0.9 2.7 0.8

10.0 0.3 0.0 0.9 6.5 1.5

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico

0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2

6.5 0.4 2.7 1.7 1.6

0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0

1.2 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0

1.2 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.5

2.4 0.2 1.9 0.2 0.1

5.5 0.0 3.0 0.3 2.0

Middle East and North Africa Egypt, Arab Rep. of

0.4 0.1

0.3 0.3

0.4 0.3

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.2 0.1

1.2 0.7

South Asia India

0.1 0.1

0.9 0.9

1.8 1.8

0.5 0.5

0.3 0.3

1.3 1.3

4.6 4.6

8.3 8.3

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

0.7 0.7

1.2 1.2

2.0 2.0

0.7 0.7

0.5 0.5

1.2 1.2

2.0 1.9

1.0 1.0

Note: e = estimate.

189

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.18 Gross international bond issuance in developing countries, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

All developing countries

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

57.2

61.5

60.5

60.9

51.7

82.2

102.4

130.9

4.2 1.9 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.3

8.2 1.4 0.0 2.6 4.2 0.0

5.1 1.3 0.0 1.4 2.4 0.0

7.1 2.6 0.1 2.4 1.8 0.3

12.5 0.9 0.8 6.0 4.8 0.0

11.6 3.3 1.5 1.4 5.1 0.3

15.7 6.2 1.4 3.5 3.3 1.4

20.3 4.9 5.0 3.2 4.1 2.2

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

15.3 0.6 1.6 1.1 5.8 3.4

12.9 0.4 2.3 1.6 0.0 5.7

14.4 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.1 8.6

10.3 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.5 2.2

13.8 0.4 0.0 2.7 3.7 3.5

26.5 0.3 2.4 4.7 8.6 5.5

38.2 2.6 5.5 3.9 10.5 6.4

54.7 1.7 7.3 11.8 16.3 9.8

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

34.7 13.7 6.4 0.5 7.9 3.3

36.8 13.3 7.8 2.4 8.8 1.4

36.3 11.9 11.4 0.5 8.5 0.5

36.7 1.7 12.8 3.0 8.2 1.7

21.1 0.0 7.4 1.7 7.1 0.0

38.8 0.0 13.6 2.8 14.1 3.7

35.9 0.0 11.6 1.3 12.8 4.0

43.0 0.5 14.6 2.7 10.0 5.9

Middle East and North Africa Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

1.5 0.0 1.5

1.9 0.1 1.4

2.4 0.0 1.9

5.3 1.5 3.3

2.7 0.0 1.0

1.0 0.0 0.2

5.6 0.0 4.4

5.4 2.8 1.8

South Asia India Pakistan

0.4 0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.0

5.1 4.5 0.5

5.3 4.7 0.6

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

1.0 1.0

1.8 1.8

1.7 1.7

1.5 1.5

1.5 1.5

3.9 3.9

2.0 2.0

2.3 2.3

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Note: e = estimate.

190

1999

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.19 Gross international bank lending to developing countries, 1998–2005 $ billions 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

95.2

78.1

105.9

69.3

69.1

86.7

111.8

198.1

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

17.0 5.8 0.7 3.2 3.4 3.8

12.9 3.3 1.6 4.7 2.6 0.7

21.9 6.7 1.0 5.2 4.8 4.1

9.0 2.0 0.5 2.7 1.8 2.0

21.5 9.6 0.5 5.6 1.7 3.5

26.9 12.6 4.2 5.3 1.9 2.5

19.5 8.0 2.1 6.2 2.0 1.1

34.5 18.5 1.4 3.5 3.2 5.9

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

17.6 2.3 1.7 1.6 2.6 5.7

15.4 0.6 0.9 2.6 0.6 7.1

22.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 4.7 11.3

14.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.9 4.6

16.8 0.3 1.8 3.5 4.9 3.7

22.2 2.2 3.0 2.6 7.2 2.0

37.8 1.8 2.3 2.1 13.6 7.6

77.6 1.4 3.0 6.4 40.1 12.7

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

46.9 11.7 11.4 3.7 11.4 4.3

35.0 6.5 7.2 7.2 8.4 0.4

44.8 6.6 13.8 5.5 10.9 2.4

34.6 4.5 10.2 3.1 10.2 3.0

18.5 1.9 4.7 1.8 6.1 0.6

20.6 0.7 3.7 2.2 12.1 0.4

29.9 0.7 9.8 6.6 9.6 0.7

46.3 2.0 13.0 7.3 18.2 0.5

Middle East and North Africa Egypt, Arab Rep. of

2.9 1.6

6.5 4.2

3.6 0.8

3.2 0.9

5.8 1.0

4.6 0.4

9.7 1.6

15.7 3.2

South Asia India Pakistan

4.8 3.8 0.9

3.2 2.8 0.0

3.4 3.0 0.0

2.4 2.0 0.2

1.7 1.2 0.4

4.0 2.3 1.5

7.0 6.0 0.8

12.2 11.0 0.7

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

6.0 3.2

5.1 3.1

9.4 6.8

5.6 2.7

4.9 1.7

8.5 3.2

7.9 2.4

11.9 5.1

Note: e = estimate.

191

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.20 Change in foreign exchange reserves, 1998–2005 $ billions (– = increase) 1998

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

–16.4

–33.2

–45.4

–81.7

–171.9

–291.6

–404.8

–393.0

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

–20.7 –5.1 –6.3 –4.7 –2.0 –2.7

–29.3 –9.7 –3.8 –4.9 –4.0 –5.4

–10.1 –10.9 –2.0 1.0 0.2 1.9

–47.7 –46.6 1.2 –1.0 –0.4 –0.4

–88.0 –74.2 –3.7 –3.7 0.2 –5.7

–136.7 –116.8 –4.0 –10.2 –0.3 –2.9

–237.0 –206.7 0.0 –21.9 0.5 –7.5

–217.9 –208.9 2.0 –4.3 –2.8 –2.0

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Romania Russian Fed. Turkey

–5.1 –2.8 –0.9 –6.9 0.8 5.0 –0.8

–6.4 –0.3 –1.5 1.1 1.4 –0.7 –3.7

–16.6 –0.2 –0.2 –0.2 –1.0 –15.8 0.9

–11.1 –1.2 0.6 1.2 –1.4 –8.3 3.6

–43.7 –9.1 0.6 –2.8 –2.2 –11.5 –8.2

–60.9 –3.0 –2.3 –3.8 –1.9 –29.1 –6.9

–79.3 –1.6 –3.3 –2.8 –6.6 –47.6 –1.7

–94.7 –1.3 –3.0 –5.9 –5.3 –54.9 –14.9

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

9.2 –2.3 8.2 2.0 –3.3 2.4

7.6 –1.6 7.8 1.1 0.5 –0.1

–3.0 1.7 2.3 –0.5 –4.2 –0.9

–2.9 9.9 –3.2 0.6 –9.2 3.8

–0.8 4.1 –1.7 –0.8 –5.5 0.8

–33.2 –2.7 –11.7 –0.4 –7.8 –7.5

–24.9 –4.9 –3.6 –0.3 –5.0 –2.3

–32.1 –4.7 –0.8 –1.2 –10.2 –5.6

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

1.7 1.2 0.6 –0.6

1.2 2.4 3.6 –1.2

–4.8 –7.5 1.4 1.8

–9.5 –6.1 0.0 0.9

–12.0 –5.1 –0.3 –2.2

–22.0 –9.8 –0.2 –5.3

–14.3 –10.2 –0.7 0.8

–21.3 –13.1 –6.4 –0.2

South Asia India Pakistan

–3.0 –2.6 0.2

–5.0 –5.0 –0.5

–4.7 –5.3 0.0

–10.2 –8.0 –2.1

–27.0 –21.7 –4.4

–35.0 –30.6 –2.6

–27.2 –27.5 1.1

–6.3 –5.9 –0.3

1.5 0.2 0.5 0.6

–1.3 –0.3 1.7 –1.9

–6.2 –0.7 –4.5 0.3

–0.3 0.5 –0.5 0.0

–0.3 0.4 3.1 0.2

–3.9 –0.3 0.2 –0.6

–22.2 –0.7 –9.8 –6.6

–20.7 –1.8 –11.3 –5.5

Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Nigeria South Africa Note: e = estimate.

192

1999

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.21 Total external debt of developing countries, 1997–2005 $ billions

All developing countries

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

2,107.0

2,321.8

2,345.7

2,283.9

2,280.7

2,359.0

2,581.8

2,755.7

2,800.4

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

526.3 146.7 136.2 47.2 50.7 109.7

533.3 144.0 151.2 42.4 53.6 104.9

538.8 152.1 151.2 41.9 58.3 96.8

498.0 145.7 144.4 41.9 58.3 79.7

516.9 184.8 134.1 45.1 58.3 67.2

515.9 186.4 132.2 48.3 59.9 59.4

541.5 208.7 136.9 48.5 62.5 51.8

588.9 248.9 140.6 52.1 60.6 51.3

633.7 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

390.4 11.1 23.2 24.6 41.7 127.6 84.8

490.3 11.4 24.3 28.5 57.7 177.8 97.1

502.9 11.0 22.8 29.9 65.9 174.8 102.2

511.0 11.2 21.6 29.5 65.8 160.0 117.3

508.1 10.5 22.8 30.3 67.4 152.5 113.4

561.4 11.5 27.7 35.0 78.5 147.4 131.2

680.5 13.4 34.8 47.4 95.5 175.5 145.4

794.9 15.7 45.6 63.2 99.2 197.3 161.6

870.1 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

669.5 128.2 198.0 27.0 31.9 147.6 35.7

752.1 141.4 241.7 33.7 33.1 159.0 37.8

772.3 145.7 245.2 34.8 34.4 166.5 37.6

758.7 147.4 243.4 37.3 33.9 150.3 38.2

753.0 154.1 231.1 38.6 36.2 145.7 36.0

750.0 149.9 233.1 41.2 33.2 140.2 34.0

785.9 166.1 236.6 43.3 37.0 141.6 34.8

779.0 169.2 222.0 44.1 37.7 138.7 35.6

723.7 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

151.2 30.9 30.1 5.0

160.9 30.7 32.4 6.8

155.7 28.0 31.0 8.2

145.2 25.3 29.2 9.9

143.0 22.6 29.3 12.4

151.4 22.9 30.0 17.1

161.2 23.6 31.4 18.6

163.9 22.0 30.3 22.2

162.5 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

149.6 94.3 30.1

157.6 97.6 32.3

162.0 98.3 33.9

160.0 99.1 32.8

156.2 97.5 31.7

168.7 104.8 33.7

181.5 112.6 35.9

193.9 122.7 35.7

194.8 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

219.9 25.3

227.7 24.8

214.0 23.9

211.0 24.9

203.6 24.1

211.7 25.0

231.2 27.8

235.1 28.5

215.6 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

193

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.22 Total external debt of developing countries: medium and long-term, 1997–2005 $ billions

All developing countries

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

1,719.8

1,971.4

2,012.7

1,967.5

1,943.7

2,021.4

2,161.0

2,261.0

2,243.7

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

394.2 115.2 103.3 32.3 38.9 71.9

448.7 126.7 131.1 33.9 47.8 75.3

465.8 136.9 131.2 35.9 53.4 73.4

435.4 132.6 121.8 37.3 52.8 64.8

410.9 128.5 112.3 38.3 52.3 54.0

398.8 120.5 109.4 39.9 54.4 47.5

400.8 120.4 114.0 39.9 56.3 40.8

414.0 131.3 116.1 40.7 55.5 39.8

426.6 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

331.2 9.1 15.1 21.2 36.6 121.7 66.8

415.2 9.6 16.6 23.7 49.3 163.1 75.9

423.5 9.7 14.0 26.3 54.6 159.0 78.8

424.4 9.8 12.6 25.4 56.2 144.4 88.4

425.5 9.3 13.2 25.7 56.3 133.5 97.0

474.2 9.6 16.9 29.3 64.6 131.1 114.8

547.6 10.8 20.8 38.4 76.0 145.1 122.4

634.4 12.4 28.5 50.8 82.3 162.2 129.7

675.9 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

541.2 96.2 163.2 21.5 26.2 119.8 31.5

633.0 110.5 211.8 28.6 26.9 132.7 35.5

662.9 116.2 216.0 30.5 30.5 142.4 35.5

651.0 119.1 212.5 31.1 31.1 131.4 34.1

659.2 134.0 202.8 33.3 33.0 131.1 31.2

670.8 134.8 209.7 35.4 29.5 130.3 29.4

697.3 143.1 212.0 35.8 33.4 132.5 30.5

682.6 141.8 196.8 36.4 32.4 129.6 31.2

632.7 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

132.7 30.7 27.1 3.2

138.8 30.5 28.2 4.8

132.5 27.8 26.8 6.0

123.7 25.0 25.1 7.3

123.8 22.4 26.0 9.8

131.8 22.8 26.5 14.5

139.7 23.4 27.6 15.5

142.4 21.6 27.4 18.2

140.1 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

141.4 89.3 27.6

150.5 93.3 30.1

155.0 94.4 32.1

154.0 95.6 31.3

151.3 94.8 30.4

161.9 100.7 32.1

174.1 107.6 34.6

183.6 115.2 34.4

181.9 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

179.1 14.3

185.2 13.3

173.1 13.1

179.1 15.3

173.0 15.7

183.9 17.6

201.5 20.4

203.8 20.6

186.6 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

194

1997

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A P P E N D I X

Table A.23 Total external debt of developing countries: short-term, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1998

1999

2000

All developing countries

387.2

350.4

333.0

316.4

337.0

337.6

420.8

494.8

556.7

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

132.1 31.5 32.9 14.9 11.8 37.8

84.6 17.3 20.1 8.5 5.9 29.7

73.0 15.2 20.0 6.0 4.9 23.4

62.6 13.1 22.6 4.6 5.5 14.9

105.9 56.3 21.8 6.8 6.0 13.2

117.0 65.9 22.8 8.4 5.6 11.9

140.6 88.3 22.9 8.6 6.2 11.0

174.8 117.6 24.5 11.4 5.0 11.5

207.2 — — — — —

59.1 2.0 8.1 3.4 5.1 5.9 18.0

75.1 1.8 7.6 4.8 8.4 14.7 21.2

79.4 1.3 8.8 3.5 11.3 15.7 23.5

86.7 1.5 9.0 4.2 9.7 15.6 28.9

82.6 1.2 9.6 4.6 11.1 19.0 16.3

87.1 1.8 10.8 5.7 13.9 16.3 16.4

133.0 2.7 14.0 9.0 19.5 30.5 23.0

160.5 3.2 17.1 12.3 16.8 35.1 31.9

194.2 — — — — — —

128.3 32.0 34.9 5.5 5.8 27.9 4.2

119.1 31.0 29.9 5.1 6.2 26.3 2.2

109.5 29.4 29.2 4.3 4.0 24.1 2.1

107.7 28.3 31.0 6.2 2.9 18.9 4.1

93.8 20.0 28.3 5.3 3.3 14.6 4.8

79.2 15.1 23.4 5.8 3.7 9.9 4.6

88.6 23.0 24.6 7.5 3.6 9.2 4.3

96.3 27.5 25.3 7.7 5.3 9.1 4.4

91.0 — — — — — —

18.6 0.2 3.0 1.8

22.1 0.2 4.3 2.0

23.2 0.2 4.3 2.2

21.5 0.2 4.1 2.5

19.2 0.2 3.4 2.7

19.6 0.1 3.5 2.5

21.4 0.1 3.8 3.1

21.5 0.4 2.9 4.0

22.4 — — —

8.2 5.0 2.5

7.1 4.3 2.2

7.0 3.9 1.8

6.1 3.5 1.5

5.0 2.7 1.3

6.8 4.1 1.5

7.4 5.0 1.2

10.3 7.5 1.2

12.8 — —

40.8 10.9

42.4 11.4

40.9 10.8

31.9 9.6

30.5 8.4

27.8 7.4

29.8 7.4

31.2 7.9

29.0 —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon South Asia India Pakistan Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

195

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.24 Total external debt of developing countries: owed by public and publicly guaranteed borrowers, 1997–2005 $ billions

All developing countries

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

1,366.8

1,470.6

1,476.4

1,422.3

1,400.9

1,470.1

1,557.9

1,589.5

1,482.9

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

271.9 112.8 58.8 16.8 27.2 24.7

288.8 99.4 76.4 18.2 30.7 31.3

307.4 99.2 83.9 18.9 36.6 34.7

288.0 94.9 80.6 19.2 35.8 32.5

277.5 91.8 77.9 24.2 31.2 27.9

277.8 88.6 79.4 26.4 34.0 22.9

278.6 85.3 84.3 25.4 37.2 17.7

280.6 90.8 82.6 25.6 36.3 15.3

279.9 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

288.6 8.7 12.9 15.3 34.2 119.8 48.1

320.8 9.1 11.6 15.9 35.1 140.9 50.6

315.7 9.0 7.7 16.9 33.2 136.4 51.6

304.5 9.0 6.6 14.4 30.8 122.6 60.6

292.1 8.5 5.7 12.7 25.7 111.2 68.4

309.5 8.5 7.1 13.6 29.4 102.6 82.3

336.3 8.9 8.7 16.3 35.0 103.9 88.6

352.5 8.6 12.0 20.7 36.6 103.2 89.7

327.8 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

378.6 72.8 87.4 4.4 15.4 92.4 29.0

412.8 82.6 103.6 5.0 16.7 95.4 29.6

420.5 88.9 102.4 5.7 20.2 92.4 28.7

409.5 93.2 99.8 5.3 20.8 81.5 28.0

420.7 102.4 106.5 5.6 21.8 77.0 25.2

445.0 106.3 122.3 6.8 20.7 76.3 23.4

474.1 114.7 129.9 8.0 22.8 77.5 24.5

476.6 117.9 122.9 9.4 23.4 77.2 25.9

426.4 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

127.7 30.7 27.0 2.3

131.8 30.5 27.8 4.0

125.5 27.8 26.3 5.3

117.2 25.0 24.5 6.6

117.2 22.4 25.3 9.0

125.3 22.7 25.9 13.8

132.8 22.9 27.3 14.8

135.2 20.9 27.4 17.5

129.8 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

129.7 80.1 25.3

139.3 84.9 27.5

144.6 86.4 29.8

135.4 80.1 28.7

132.8 78.8 28.3

141.1 82.3 30.1

150.2 85.6 33.0

155.3 88.7 32.9

147.7 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

170.3 11.9

177.0 10.7

162.7 8.2

167.7 9.1

160.6 7.9

171.4 9.4

186.0 9.1

189.2 9.8

171.3 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

196

1997

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A P P E N D I X

Table A.25 Total external debt of developing countries: owed by private sector borrowers, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

740.2

851.3

869.3

861.6

879.7

889.0

1,023.9

1,166.2

1,317.5

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

254.4 33.9 77.3 30.4 23.5 85.0

244.5 44.6 74.8 24.3 22.9 73.6

231.4 52.9 67.3 23.0 21.7 62.0

210.1 50.9 63.8 22.6 22.5 47.2

239.4 93.1 56.2 20.9 27.1 39.3

238.1 97.8 52.8 21.9 25.9 36.5

262.9 123.3 52.7 23.2 25.2 34.1

308.3 158.1 58.0 26.6 24.2 36.0

353.8 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

101.8 2.4 10.2 9.3 7.5 7.8 36.7

169.5 2.3 12.7 12.6 22.6 36.9 46.6

187.1 2.0 15.1 13.0 32.8 38.3 50.6

206.5 2.2 15.0 15.2 35.1 37.4 56.7

216.0 2.0 17.1 17.6 41.7 41.3 45.0

251.9 2.9 20.6 21.4 49.1 44.8 48.9

344.3 4.5 26.1 31.0 60.5 71.6 56.8

442.5 7.0 33.5 42.4 62.6 94.1 71.9

542.3 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

290.9 55.4 110.7 22.7 16.5 55.2 6.7

339.3 58.8 138.0 28.7 16.3 63.5 8.2

351.9 56.7 142.8 29.2 14.2 74.1 8.9

349.2 54.2 143.7 32.0 13.1 68.8 10.2

332.3 51.6 124.6 33.0 14.5 68.6 10.8

305.0 43.6 110.8 34.4 12.5 63.8 10.6

311.8 51.4 106.7 35.3 14.2 64.1 10.4

302.3 51.3 99.1 34.6 14.4 61.5 9.7

297.3 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

23.6 0.2 3.1 2.7

29.1 0.2 4.6 2.7

30.2 0.2 4.8 2.9

28.0 0.2 4.7 3.3

25.8 0.2 4.0 3.5

26.0 0.2 4.1 3.2

28.4 0.7 4.1 3.8

28.7 1.1 2.9 4.7

32.7 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

19.9 14.3 4.8

18.3 12.7 4.8

17.4 11.9 4.1

24.6 19.0 4.1

23.4 18.7 3.4

27.6 22.6 3.5

31.3 27.1 2.9

38.6 34.0 2.8

47.0 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

49.7 13.3

50.7 14.1

51.3 15.7

43.3 15.8

43.0 16.1

40.3 15.6

45.2 18.7

45.8 18.7

44.3 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

197

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.26 Total external debt of developing countries: owed to public sector creditors, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

790.1

865.6

880.0

839.5

827.1

875.7

926.3

924.1

820.8

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

152.5 39.8 45.5 4.0 19.6 17.8

179.1 45.1 58.2 4.5 22.1 21.4

200.2 50.4 66.4 4.8 23.6 25.3

188.1 50.4 66.0 5.0 21.9 23.9

180.4 50.6 62.1 5.9 19.7 20.8

183.7 50.8 65.7 5.8 20.9 16.6

190.1 51.4 71.0 6.2 22.2 13.1

193.6 57.2 69.5 7.0 21.6 10.7

190.1 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

156.3 3.4 1.1 3.3 26.6 76.8 14.3

172.5 3.9 1.1 2.3 27.1 88.3 15.0

170.9 3.9 1.1 2.3 25.1 86.7 13.8

166.8 3.9 1.2 1.9 23.7 82.5 17.3

159.3 3.4 1.3 1.7 17.8 71.7 26.9

166.0 3.5 1.6 1.9 19.7 62.2 35.8

169.8 4.1 2.1 1.7 20.4 58.2 37.5

168.5 4.5 2.2 2.3 18.6 58.0 35.3

131.0 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

145.3 24.0 22.2 2.2 5.6 32.1 5.5

160.6 25.8 32.7 2.2 6.0 31.4 6.7

162.8 25.4 37.7 2.1 7.8 26.3 6.6

149.7 25.5 31.1 1.9 7.7 20.8 6.1

162.3 35.2 37.2 1.7 8.6 19.9 4.9

182.4 35.6 52.1 1.5 8.9 20.5 4.4

196.0 36.9 58.2 1.4 11.3 20.6 3.9

187.4 35.6 52.3 1.3 11.5 19.6 3.5

148.2 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

99.5 20.3 25.9 0.7

103.8 21.5 26.9 0.9

98.2 20.4 25.7 0.9

90.7 19.2 24.0 0.9

88.2 17.7 23.4 1.0

91.5 17.7 24.7 1.0

96.4 17.9 26.4 1.7

95.6 16.2 26.4 1.8

90.2 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

98.9 52.8 22.8

104.6 53.9 25.1

113.3 58.6 27.7

102.7 50.6 26.7

101.1 49.8 27.0

106.3 49.8 29.3

113.4 50.7 32.3

116.1 51.7 32.0

113.8 — —

137.6 0.4

145.0 0.0

134.5 0.0

141.6 0.1

135.8 0.1

145.9 0.1

160.7 0.2

162.9 0.3

147.5 —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

198

1998

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.27 Total external debt of developing countries: owed to private sector creditors, 1997–2005 $ billions

All developing countries

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

1,316.9

1,456.3

1,465.7

1,444.4

1,453.6

1,483.4

1,655.5

1,831.6

1,979.6

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

373.8 106.9 90.7 43.2 31.1 91.9

354.2 98.9 93.1 37.9 31.5 83.5

338.6 101.6 84.9 37.1 34.7 71.5

309.9 95.3 78.5 36.9 36.4 55.8

336.5 134.3 72.0 39.2 38.5 46.4

332.2 135.5 66.5 42.5 39.1 42.7

351.4 157.3 65.9 42.4 40.3 38.7

395.3 191.7 71.1 45.2 39.0 40.6

443.7 — — — — —

Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Russian Fed. Turkey

234.1 7.7 22.1 21.3 15.1 50.8 70.5

317.8 7.5 23.1 26.2 30.6 89.5 82.2

331.9 7.1 21.7 27.6 40.9 88.1 88.4

344.2 7.3 20.4 27.6 42.2 77.6 100.0

348.8 7.1 21.5 28.6 49.6 80.8 86.5

395.4 8.0 26.1 33.1 58.8 85.3 95.4

510.7 9.3 32.7 45.7 75.1 117.3 107.9

626.4 11.2 43.4 60.9 80.6 139.3 126.2

739.1 — — — — — —

Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

524.2 104.2 175.8 24.9 26.3 115.6 30.2

591.5 115.6 209.0 31.5 27.1 127.5 31.0

609.5 120.3 207.5 32.7 26.6 140.2 31.0

608.9 121.9 212.3 35.4 26.2 129.5 32.0

590.7 118.9 193.9 36.9 27.7 125.8 31.1

567.6 114.3 181.0 39.7 24.3 119.6 29.6

589.9 129.2 178.4 41.9 25.7 121.1 30.9

591.6 133.7 169.7 42.7 26.3 119.1 32.1

575.5 — — — — — —

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

51.7 10.6 4.2 4.3

57.1 9.2 5.5 5.9

57.5 7.6 5.3 7.3

54.6 6.1 5.2 8.9

54.8 4.9 6.0 11.5

59.9 5.2 5.3 16.1

64.8 5.7 5.0 16.9

68.3 5.7 3.9 20.4

72.3 — — —

South Asia India Pakistan

50.7 41.5 7.2

53.0 43.7 7.2

48.7 39.7 6.2

57.3 48.5 6.1

55.1 47.7 4.7

62.5 55.0 4.4

68.1 61.9 3.5

77.8 71.1 3.7

80.9 — —

Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa

82.4 24.9

82.7 24.8

79.5 23.9

69.4 24.7

67.8 23.9

65.8 24.9

70.6 27.6

72.2 28.2

68.1 —

Note: e = estimate; — = not available.

199

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.28 Gross foreign exchange reserves of developing countries, 1997–2005 $ billions 1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005e

All developing countries

571.6

588.0

621.2

666.6

748.3

920.1

1,211.8

1,616.6

2,009.5

East Asia and Pacific China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand

212.5 139.9 16.1 20.0 7.2 25.7

233.2 145.0 22.4 24.7 9.1 28.4

262.5 154.7 26.2 29.7 13.1 33.8

272.7 165.6 28.3 28.6 13.0 31.9

320.4 212.2 27.0 29.6 13.4 32.3

408.4 286.4 30.8 33.3 13.2 38.0

545.0 403.3 34.7 43.5 13.5 41.0

782.0 609.9 34.7 65.4 13.0 48.5

999.9 818.9 32.8 69.7 15.8 50.5

90.8 9.7 8.3 20.3 3.7 12.8 18.6

95.9 12.5 9.2 27.2 2.9 7.8 19.4

102.3 12.8 10.7 26.1 1.5 8.5 23.2

118.9 13.0 10.9 26.3 2.5 24.3 22.3

130.0 14.2 10.3 25.2 3.9 32.5 18.7

173.8 23.3 9.7 28.0 6.1 44.1 26.9

234.6 26.3 12.0 31.7 8.0 73.2 33.8

313.9 27.8 15.3 34.6 14.6 120.8 35.5

408.7 29.1 18.3 40.5 19.9 175.7 50.4

166.5 22.2 50.8 17.3 28.1 14.0

157.3 24.5 42.6 15.3 31.5 11.6

149.7 26.1 34.8 14.2 31.0 11.7

152.7 24.4 32.5 14.7 35.1 12.6

155.5 14.5 35.7 14.0 44.4 8.8

156.4 10.4 37.4 14.8 49.9 8.0

189.5 13.1 49.1 15.2 57.7 15.5

214.4 18.0 52.7 15.5 62.8 17.9

246.5 22.7 53.5 16.7 73.0 23.5

Middle East and North Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. of Lebanon

43.7 8.0 18.5 5.9

42.0 6.8 17.9 6.5

40.8 4.4 14.3 7.7

45.6 11.9 12.9 5.9

55.1 18.0 12.9 5.0

67.1 23.1 13.2 7.2

89.1 32.9 13.4 12.5

103.3 43.1 14.1 11.7

124.6 56.2 20.5 11.8

South Asia India Pakistan

30.0 24.3 1.2

32.9 27.0 1.0

37.9 32.0 1.5

42.6 37.3 1.5

52.8 45.3 3.6

79.8 67.0 8.1

114.8 97.6 10.7

142.0 125.2 9.6

148.3 131.0 9.8

Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Nigeria South Africa

28.1 0.4 7.6 4.8

26.6 0.2 7.1 4.2

27.9 0.5 5.5 6.1

34.1 1.2 9.9 5.8

34.4 0.7 10.5 5.8

34.7 0.4 7.3 5.6

38.6 0.6 7.1 6.2

60.9 1.4 17.0 12.8

81.6 3.2 28.3 18.3

Europe and Central Asia Czech Rep. Hungary Poland Romania Russian Fed. Turkey Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina Brazil Chile Mexico Venezuela, R. B. de

Note: e = estimate.

200

1998

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.29 Key external debt ratios for developing countries %, averages for 2002–4

Country

Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire Croatia Czech Republic Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Ghana Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary India Indonesia

Total external debt (EDT) to exports of G&S (XGS)

74 82 89 451 113 56 179 44 30 188 268 431 275 80 14 239 139 432 3,069 117 296 144 730 172 145 48 189 389 765 230 66 172 200 73 — 176 62 191 123 114 10 260 138 460 16 124 398 133 222 232 85 416 791 171 98 171 115 106 181

Present Value (PV) of EDT as a % of XGS

51 80 82 510 130 45 124 48 30 208 113 432 136 63 12 258 143 203 203 99 72 100 599 79 141 46 204 276 131 356 70 170 194 71 — 159 61 205 108 123 9 154 132 144 16 117 231 100 76 213 88 186 779 65 76 68 108 95 175

EDT as a % of gross national income (GNI)

PV as % of GNI

Total Debt service as a % of XGS

Interest service as % of XGS

25 33 74 141 43 29 37 27 20 99 56 99 77 44 8 44 81 48 227 80 81 67 91 73 58 15 45 99 208 214 34 91 113 53 65 93 39 65 36 50 — 90 116 97 9 80 186 49 95 115 22 100 331 189 37 95 80 21 63

17 32 68 159 50 23 26 29 20 109 24 100 38 34 6 47 83 23 15 68 20 46 75 33 57 15 49 70 36 331 36 90 110 51 45 84 39 70 32 54 — 53 111 30 9 75 108 37 32 106 23 45 326 72 29 38 76 18 61

4 22 19 33 10 7 6 6 3 65 9 9 23 4 1 58 22 13 195 1 20 7 12 5 32 5 38 4 8 14 8 8 33 13 — 14 7 42 9 10 — 7 20 7 1 7 20 14 8 16 8 20 46 6 11 9 31 16 26

1 4 2 6 1 1 2 3 1 15 3 4 6 1 0 16 5 4 37 0 8 2 2 1 5 1 12 1 4 5 2 1 8 2 — 6 3 14 3 5 — 3 5 3 0 1 5 2 3 10 4 5 10 2 4 3 3 3 6 (continued)

201

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.29 (continued) %, averages for 2002–4

Country

Iran, Islamic Rep. of Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia 1/ Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Samoa São Tomé and Principe Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Seychelles Sierra Leone Slovak Republic Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Swaziland Syrian Arab Rep. Tajikistan

Total external debt (EDT) to exports of G&S (XGS)

Present Value (PV) of EDT as a % of XGS

EDT as a % of gross national income (GNI)

PV as % of GNI

Total Debt service as a % of XGS

Interest service as % of XGS

33 126 108 193 185 240 365 243 470 88 1,891 95 107 330 584 42 58 251 526 70 69 117 143 96 310 233 180 283 452 141 30 194 106 87 109 245 120 126 138 117 964 451 1,655 165 216 101 903 87 169 — 58 134 217 109 143 478 24 250 78

31 141 101 182 136 173 276 239 488 64 2,133 96 94 170 186 42 46 98 186 69 77 108 108 91 54 176 119 78 156 140 29 156 129 80 104 265 124 121 136 120 150 400 459 61 209 104 188 86 129 — 54 111 212 105 129 625 25 249 55

10 79 77 107 47 114 101 112 116 60 674 53 45 74 188 52 52 83 161 44 22 81 114 41 98 — 56 127 74 72 18 44 77 72 54 52 71 47 52 45 96 177 666 60 80 94 177 68 76 — 18 61 96 64 71 116 26 102 58

9 89 72 101 34 82 76 110 121 44 760 53 39 38 60 53 42 33 57 43 24 75 86 39 17 — 37 35 25 71 18 35 94 66 52 57 73 45 51 46 15 158 185 22 77 96 37 67 58 — 17 50 94 62 64 151 27 101 41

5 16 9 52 10 18 9 26 92 6 0 18 13 8 10 7 5 8 13 8 25 15 4 16 6 4 6 7 12 9 8 23 16 19 16 21 23 44 22 13 14 17 44 14 13 9 14 20 16 — 8 9 32 7 12 8 2 4 9

1 7 2 5 2 3 2 6 30 2 0 3 3 3 4 2 1 2 5 3 5 4 2 3 2 1 2 3 3 4 2 4 7 3 5 11 7 4 5 5 6 13 14 3 5 2 7 4 6 — 3 3 15 4 4 2 1 2 2 (continued)

202

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.29 (continued) %, averages for 2002–4

Country

Tanzania Thailand Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Uganda Ukraine Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela, R. B. de Vietnam Yemen, Rep. of Zambia Zimbabwe

Total external debt (EDT) to exports of G&S (XGS)

398 52 242 125 49 148 213 379 70 338 130 81 106 75 95 530 264

Present Value (PV) of EDT as a % of XGS

115 50 191 90 53 147 221 162 71 351 123 64 125 65 66 112 264

EDT as a % of gross national income (GNI)

PV as % of GNI

Total Debt service as a % of XGS

Interest service as % of XGS

76 36 106 46 29 79 67 78 42 104 48 44 38 45 53 170 33

22 35 83 33 31 79 69 33 42 108 45 35 45 39 37 36 33

6 12 3 4 7 16 45 8 14 42 22 2 20 3 4 31 5

3 2 0 1 3 6 10 3 2 16 4 1 7 1 1 6 1

Note: For definition of indicators, see Sources and Definitions section. Numbers in italics include the effects of traditional relief and HIPC relief and are based on publicly guaranteed debt only. Under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), IDA, IMF and the African Development Fund are currently finalizing arrangements to provide debt stock cancellation to post-completion point HIPCs on debt owed to the three institutions. The IMF and ADF are providing 100 percent stock cancellation on debts outstanding as of year-end 2004, while IDA will provide 100 percent stock cancellation on debts owed as of year-end 2003. The present value of debt for HIPCs provided in the GDF does not incorporate debt reduction under the MDRI and may include penalty charges. Exports comprise the total value of goods and services exported, receipts of compensations of employees and investment income and worker’s remittances. In the ratios, the numerator refers to the 2004 data and the denominator is an average of 2002 to 2004 data. For exports and GNI averages, staff estimates are used when necessary. — = not available.

203

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table A.30 Classification of countries by region and level of income Sub-Saharan Africa

Income group

Subgroup

East and Southern Africa

Asia

Europe and Central Asia

West Africa

East Asia and Pacific

South Asia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Rest of Europe

Middle East and North Africa

Middle East

North Africa

Americas

Lowincome countries

Burundi Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Eritrea Ethiopia Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Mozambique Rwanda Somalia Sudan Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe

Benin Burkina Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Congo, Rep. of Côte d’Ivoire Gambia, The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Liberia Mali Mauritania Niger Nigeria São Tomé and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Togo

Cambodia Korea, Dem. People’s Rep. of Lao PDR Mongolia Myanmar Papua New Guinea Solomon Islands Timor-Leste Vietnam

Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan

Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Tajikistan Uzbekistan

Yemen, Rep. of

Middle- Lower income countries

Angola Namibia Swaziland

Cape Verde

China Fiji Indonesia Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia, Fed. Sts. of Philippines Samoa Thailand Tonga Vanuatu

Maldives Sri Lanka

Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Georgia Kazakhstan Macedonia, FYRa Romania Serbia and Montenegro Turkmenistan Ukraine

Iran, Islamic Rep. of Iraq Jordan Syrian Arab Rep. West Bank and Gaza

Algeria Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. of Morocco Tunisia

Bolivia Brazil Colombia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Jamaica Paraguay Peru Suriname

Botswana Mauritius Mayotte Seychelles South Africa

Equatorial Guinea Gabon

American Samoa Malaysia N. Mariana Islands Palau

Lebanon Oman

Libya

Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Barbados Belize Chile Costa Rica Dominica Grenada Mexico Panama St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela, R. B. de

Upper

Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Russian Federation Slovak Republic

Turkey

Haiti Nicaragua

(continued)

204

S T A T I S T I C A L

A P P E N D I X

Table A.30 (continued) Sub-Saharan Africa

Income group

Subgroup

East and Southern Africa

West Africa

HighOECD income countries

209

East Asia and Pacific

Europe and Central Asia

South Asia

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Australia Japan Korea, Rep. New Zealand

NonOECD

Total

Asia

23

36

Middle East

North Africa

Austria Belgium Denmark Finland Franceb Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom

Brunei French Polynesia Guam Hong Kong, Chinac Macao, Chinad New Caledonia Singapore Taiwan, China 25

Rest of Europe

Middle East and North Africa

8

Americas

Canada United States

Slovenia

Andorra Channel Islands Cyprus Faeroe Islands Greenland Isle of Man Liechtenstein Monaco San Marino

Bahrain Israel Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates

Malta

Aruba Bahamas, The Bermuda Cayman Islands Netherlands Antilles Puerto Rico Virgin Islands (U.S.)

27

28

14

7

41

Source: World Bank data. Note: For operational and analytical purposes, the World Bank’s main criterion for classifying economies is gross national income (GNI) per capita. Every economy is classified as low income, middle income (subdivided into lower middle and upper middle), or high income. Other analytical groups, based on geographic regions and levels of external debt, are also used. Low-income and middle-income economies are sometimes referred to as developing economies. The use of the term is convenient; it is not intended to imply that all economies in the group are experiencing similar development or that other economies have reached a preferred or final stage of development. Classification by income does not necessarily reflect development status. This table classifies all World Bank member economies, and all other economies with populations of more than 30,000. Economies are divided among income groups according to 2004 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $825 or less; lower middle income, $826–3,255; upper middle income, $3,256–10,065; and high income, $10,066 or more. a. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. b. The French overseas departments French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Réunion are included in France. c. On 1 July 1997 China resumed its exercise of sovereignty over Hong Kong. d. On 20 December 1999 China resumed its exercise of sovereignty over Macao.

205

he year 2005 was a landmark in global development finance. Private capital flows to developing countries reached a record net level of $483 billion, much of them going to middleincome countries that took advantage of the surge to improve their external debt profile and build official reserves of foreign exchange. For the poorer countries, which have limited access to market-based external finance, the development community stepped up efforts to enhance aid flows and to reduce debt burdens through new multilateral debt-relief initiatives endorsed by the G-8 group of industrial countries in July 2005. Global Development Finance 2006 highlights this unique opportunity to bolster development efforts and place development finance on a stable footing.

T

The global economy grew by 3.2 percent in 2005, with the growth rate in the developing world exceeding 5 percent for the third year running.While prospects are good for continued robust economic growth in developing countries, risks and vulnerabilities persist— including the possibilities of an abrupt and disorderly correction of global financial imbalances, external shocks leading to further sharp hikes in oil prices, and a buildup of borrowing by countries of lower creditworthiness. As the world economy moves toward a multipolar international monetary system, multilateral cooperation on international monetary relations and exchange rates have become essential for addressing the current imbalances. Developing countries have much at stake. Policy makers in emerging market economies should give priority to strengthening institutions and promoting policies and mechanisms that will improve their ability to navigate in a world economy of increasingly integrated and interdependent global financial and production systems. Favorable financing conditions and robust growth coincide with increasing financial integration among developing countries with South-South flows of capital, now growing more rapidly than North-South flows, mirroring trends in trade flows. Although South-South capital flows remain relatively small, they have the potential to change the landscape of development finance over the next few years, particularly if growth in these countries continues to outpace that in advanced countries. Global Development Finance 2006, I: Review, Analysis, and Outlook is the World Bank’s annual review of recent trends in and

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prospects for financial flows to developing countries. It discusses the structural transformation and mainstreaming of emerging debt markets, the increased importance of the euro, the fastgrowing phenomenon of credit default swap transactions on emerging sovereign and corporate names, and the greater reliance in developing countries on local-currency financing. It also highlights the difficult challenge that many emerging market economies and oil exporters now face in managing the large inflows of foreign exchange generated from capital flows and trade transactions. “Prospects for the Global Economy” is an online companion to Global Development Finance. It provides information on the global economic outlook, detailed regional forecasts, and additional features such as interactive graphs, analytical tools, and access to underlying data.This online publication is available in English, French, and Spanish at http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook. Global Development Finance 2006, II: Summary and Country Tables includes a comprehensive set of tables with statistical data for 135 countries that report debt under the World Bank Debtor Reporting System, as well as summary data for regions and income groups. It contains data on total external debt stocks and flows, aggregates, and key debt ratios, and provides a detailed, country-by-country picture of debt. Global Development Finance 2006 debt data are also available in electronic format: GDF Online (an electronic subscription database) and the GDF CD-ROM. Each of these electronic databases provides access to 217 historical time series indicators from 1970 to 2004, and country group estimates for 2005. The Little Book on External Debt is a new publication that provides a quick reference to key debt data in aggregate and individual country tables prepared for the convenience of users. With analysis and data extending from short-term bank lending to long-term bond issuance in both local and foreign currency, Global Development Finance 2006 is unique in its breadth of coverage of the trends and issues of fundamental importance to the financing of the developing world, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves.The report is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community.

For more information on the analysis, please see www.worldbank.org/prospects; further detail about the Summary and Country Tables can be found at www.worldbank.org/data. For general and ordering information, please visit the World Bank’s publications Web site at www.worldbank.org/publications, or call 703-6611580; within the United States, please call 1-800-645-7274.

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Global Development Finance The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows I I :

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Global Development Finance The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows I I :

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ISBN-10: 0-8213-5991-6 ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-5991-4 eISBN-10: 0-8213-6623-8 eISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6623-3 ISSN 1020-5454 DOI: 10.1596/ 978-0-8213-5991-4

Table of Contents

Preface

vii

Acknowledgments

ix

About data xi Methodology xi Metadata xiv Country notes xx Sources xx Symbols xxi Abbreviations

xxiii

Country groups

xxvii

Summary tables

xxix

Regional and income group aggregate tables 1 Country tables 29 Albania 30 Algeria 33 Angola 36 Argentina 39 Armenia 42 Azerbaijan 45 Bangladesh 48 Barbados 51 Belarus 54 Belize 57 Benin 60 Bhutan 63 Bolivia 66 Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana 72 Brazil 75 Bulgaria 78

69

Burkina Faso 81 Burundi 84 Cambodia 87 Cameroon 90 Cape Verde 93 Central African Republic 96 Chad 99 Chile 102 China 105 Colombia 108 Comoros 111 Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of 117 Costa Rica 120 Côte d’Ivoire 123 Croatia 126 Czech Republic 129 Djibouti 132 Dominica 135 Dominican Republic 138 Ecuador 141 Egypt, Arab Republic of 144 El Salvador 147 Equatorial Guinea 150 Eritrea 153 Estonia 156 Ethiopia 159 Fiji 162 Gabon 165 Gambia, The 168 Georgia 171 Ghana 174 Grenada 177 Guatemala 180 Guinea 183 Guinea-Bissau 186 Guyana 189 Haiti 192

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Honduras 195 Hungary 198 India 201 Indonesia 204 Iran, Islamic Republic of 207 Jamaica 210 Jordan 213 Kazakhstan 216 Kenya 219 Kyrgyz Republic 222 Lao People’s Democratic Republic Latvia 228 Lebanon 231 Lesotho 234 Liberia 237 Lithuania 240 Macedonia, FYR 243 Madagascar 246 Malawi 249 Malaysia 252 Maldives 255 Mali 258 Mauritania 261 Mauritius 264 Mexico 267 Moldova 270 Mongolia 273 Morocco 276 Mozambique 279 Myanmar 282 Nepal 285 Nicaragua 288 Niger 291 Nigeria 294 Oman 297 Pakistan 300 Panama 303 Papua New Guinea 306 Paraguay 309 Peru 312

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Philippines 315 Poland 318 Romania 321 Russian Federation 324 Rwanda 327 Samoa 330 São Tomé and Principe 333 Senegal 336 Serbia and Montenegro 339 Seychelles 342 Sierra Leone 345 Slovak Republic 348 Solomon Islands 351 Somalia 354 South Africa 357 Sri Lanka 360 St. Kitts and Nevis 363 St. Lucia 366 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 369 Sudan 372 Swaziland 375 Syrian Arab Republic 378 Tajikistan 381 Tanzania 384 Thailand 387 Togo 390 Tonga 393 Trinidad and Tobago 396 Tunisia 399 Turkey 402 Uganda 405 Ukraine 408 Uruguay 411 Uzbekistan 414 Vanuatu 417 Venezuela, República Bolivariana de 420 Vietnam 423 Yemen, Republic of 426 Zambia 429 Zimbabwe 432

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Preface

lobal Development Finance Volume II: Summary and Country Tables is part of a two-volume annual publication. Volume I: Analysis and Statistical Appendix contains analysis and commentary on recent developments in international finance for developing countries. Volume II: Summary and Country tables (GDF) contains statistical tables on the external debt of the 135 countries that report public and publicly guaranteed debt under the Debtor Reporting System (DRS). It also includes tables of selected debt and resource flow statistics for individual reporting countries as well as summary tables for regional and income groups. It is the culmination of a year-long process that requires extensive cooperation from people and organizations around the globe—national central banks, ministries of finance, major multilateral organizations, and many departments of the World Bank. GDF has been revised this year to make the information more easily accessible to users. The tables have been reduced to three pages to make the data easier to find. Country Notes, which previously appeared at the end of the book, are now included at the end of each country table. About Data has also been revised. Available for the first time this year, the Little Book on External Debt 2006 provides a quick reference to the data from the GDF. Global Development Finance 2006 on CD-ROM contains a database of 217 time series indicators, covering the years 1970 to 2004 in most cases, and to 2014 for “pipeline” data. It also contains the full contents of the print version of the GDF. Text providing country notes, definitions, and source notes is linked to each table. The general cutoff date for data is December 2004.

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This database is also available online (GDF Online) through the website of the World Bank. The database covers external debt stocks and flows, major economic aggregates, and key debt ratios as well as average terms of new commitments, currency composition of long-term debt, debt restructuring, and scheduled debt service projections for all countries reporting through the DRS. The charts on pages xxiv to xxvi summarize graphically the relation between debt stock and its components, the computation of net flows, aggregate net resource flows, and aggregate net transfers; and the relation between net resource flows and the balance of payments. Exact definitions of the terms used in the Summary and Country Tables volume of GDF are found in About Data Format and Definitions sections. The economic aggregates presented in the tables are prepared for the convenience of users. Although debt indicators can give useful information about developments in debt-servicing capacity, conclusions drawn from them will not be valid unless accompanied by careful economic evaluation. The macroeconomic information provided is from standard sources, but many of them are subject to considerable margins of error, and the usual care must be taken in interpreting the indicators. This is particularly the case for the most recent year or two, when figures are preliminary and subject to revision.

Shaida Badiee Director, Development Data Group

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Acknowledgments

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his volume was prepared by the Financial Data Team of the Development Data Group, led by Ibrahim Levent. The team consisted of Vinoda Basnayake, Nanasamudd Chhim, Nevin Fahmy, Shelley Fu, Nino Kostava, Yulia Makarova, Gloria Moreno, Olha Pryymak, and Alagiri Venkatesan. The team was assisted by Rosario Alipio. Abdolreza Farivari led systems support, Soong Sup Lee provided the macroeconomic data, and K. M. Vijayalakshmi provided worker remittances and compensation of employees data. Many others inside the World Bank provided helpful input, especially the staff of the International Finance Team of the Development

Prospects Group (DECPG), the staff of the Economic Policy and Debt Department (PRMED), and the country economists who reviewed the data. The work was carried out under the management of Shaida Badiee. The production of this volume was managed by Richard Fix, with the assistance of Azita Amjadi, Priya Pandya, and Gonca Okur. The team received substantial help in developing a novel feature of the report—the online publication website—from Shahin Outadi and Saurabh Gupta. The CD-ROM and database were prepared by William Prince. Staff from External Affairs oversaw publication and dissemination of the book.

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About data

Methodology

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he World Bank is the sole repository for statistics on the external debt of developing countries on a loan-by-loan basis. The Debtor Reporting System (DRS), set up in 1951 to monitor these statistics, is maintained by the staff of the Financial Data Team (FIN), part of the Development Data Group of Development Economics.

Methodology for aggregating data The DRS data are used, in combination with information obtained from creditors through the debt data collection systems of other agencies, the staff of the Financial Data Team calculates the total external indebtedness of developing countries. The data are also supplemented by market sources and estimates made by World Bank staff.

Converting to a common currency

Since debt data are normally reported to the World Bank in the currency of repayment, they have to be converted into a common currency (usually U.S. dollars) to produce summary tables. Because flow data are converted at annual average exchange rates and stock data at year-end exchange rates, year-to-year changes in debt outstanding and disbursed are sometimes not equal to net flows (disbursements less principal repayments); similarly, changes in debt outstanding including undisbursed debt differ from commitments less repayments. Discrepancies are particularly significant when exchange rates have moved sharply during the year; cancellations and reschedulings of other liabilities into long-term public debt also contribute to the differences.

Exchange rates

Data received by the World Bank from its members and major multilateral agencies are expressed in the currencies in

which the debts are repayable or in which the transactions took place. For aggregation, the Bank converts these amounts to U.S. dollars using the IMF par values or central rates, or the current market rates where appropriate. Service payments, commitments, and disbursements (flows) are converted to U.S. dollars at the average rate for the year. Debt outstanding and disbursed at the end of a given year (a stock) is converted at the rate in effect at the end of that year. Projected debt service, however, is converted to U.S. dollars at rates in effect at end-December 2004. Debt repayable in multiple currencies, goods, or services and debt with a provision for maintenance of value of the currency of repayment are shown at book value. Beginning with 1991 all ruble debt owed to the former Soviet Union is converted at a rate of $1 ⫽ 0.6 ruble, except in cases where a bilateral agreement specifying a different conversion rate is in place. This valuation method does not constitute an endorsement by World Bank staff of the appropriateness or validity of this method or the exchange rate used. The appropriate valuation is a matter to be resolved bilaterally between the Russian Federation and its debtor countries.

Adjustments

Year-to-year changes in debt outstanding and disbursed are sometimes not equal to net flows; similarly, changes in debt outstanding, including undisbursed, differ from commitments less repayments. The reasons for these differences are cancellations, adjustments caused by the use of different exchange rates, and the rescheduling of other liabilities into long-term public debt.

Public and publicly guaranteed debt

All data related to public and publicly guaranteed debt are provided on a loan-by-loan basis by debtors except

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for lending by some multilateral agencies, in which case data are taken from the creditors’ records. These creditors include the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the InterAmerican Development Bank, and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA). (The IBRD and IDA are components of the World Bank). Reports contain annual stocks and flows information as well as terms and conditions of individual loans contracted. Starting with the 1988–89 edition of World Debt Tables (the previous title of this book), all data pertaining to World Bank loans from 1985 onward are recorded at their current market value. Starting with the 1991–92 edition, all data pertaining to Asian Development Bank loans from 1989 onward are recorded at their current market value. Starting with the 1998 edition, all data pertaining to African Development Bank and African Development Fund loans from 1997 onward are recorded at their current market value as well.

Private nonguaranteed debt

The DRS was expanded in 1970 to incorporate private nonguaranteed long-term debt. Reports, submitted annually, contain aggregate data for disbursed and outstanding debt, disbursements, principal repayments, interest payments, principal and interest rescheduled for the reporting year, and projected payments of principal and interest. Data are usually presented in dollars, and currency conversion is not necessary. Although the reporting countries fully recognize the importance of collecting data on private nonguaranteed debt when it constitutes a significant portion of total external debt, detailed data are available only in countries that have registration requirements covering private debt, most commonly in connection with exchange controls. Where formal registration of foreign borrowing is not mandatory, compilers must rely on balance of payments data and financial surveys. This edition includes data on private nonguaranteed debt, either as reported or as estimated, for countries for which this type of debt is known to be significant. For private nonguaranteed debt that is not reported, the standard estimation approach starts from a calculation of the stock of debt outstanding, using data available from creditors.

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Amortization is estimated by making an assumption regarding the proportion of debt repaid each year and then applying these ratios to generate a first approximation of annual principal repayments. Disbursements are then estimated as a residual between net flows (equal to the change in the stock of debt, adjusted by the effect of the currency composition of the public debt) and estimated amortization. Interest payments are estimated by applying an assumed average interest rate to the stock of debt outstanding. Data on the balance of payments flows provide useful guidelines in the process of building a time series because private nonguaranteed debt can be treated as a residual between total net longterm borrowing and net long-term borrowing recorded in the DRS for public and publicly guaranteed debt.

Short-term debt

The World Bank regards the individual reporting country as the authoritative source of information on its own external liabilities. But for short-term debt, defined as debt with an original maturity of one year or less, accurate information is not widely available from debtors. By its nature, short-term debt is difficult to monitor; loan-by-loan registration is normally impractical, and most reporting arrangements involve periodic returns to a country’s central bank from its banking sector. Since 1982 the quality of such reporting has improved, but only a few developing countries have figures available for short-term debt. Where information from debtors is not available, data from creditors can indicate the magnitude of a country’s short-term debt. The most important source is the BIS’ quarterly series showing the maturity distribution of commercial banks’ claims on developing countries. Those data are reported residually. However, an estimate of shortterm liabilities by original maturity can be calculated by deducting from claims due in one year those that had a maturity of between one and two years 12 months earlier. There are several problems with this method. Valuation adjustments caused by exchange rate movements will affect the calculations, as will prepayment and refinancing of long-term maturities falling due. Moreover, not all countries’ commercial banks report in a way that allows the full maturity distribution to be determined, and the

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BIS data include liabilities only to banks within the reporting area. Even on this basis, however, the results need to be interpreted with caution. Where short-term debt has been rescheduled, the effect of lags in reporting and differences in the treatment of the rescheduled debt by debtors and creditors may result in double counting if short-term debt derived from creditor sources is added to longterm debt reported by the country to obtain total external liabilities. Some of the short-term debt estimates published are drawn from debtor and creditor sources, but most are from creditor sources. Only for a few countries can the data be regarded as authoritative, but they offer a guide to the size of a country’s short-term (and, hence, its total) external debt. Interest in arrears on long-term debt and the use of IMF credit are added to the short-term debt.

Use of IMF credit Data related to the operations of the IMF come from the IMF Treasurer’s Department and are converted from special drawing rights (SDRs) into dollars using end-ofperiod exchange rates for stocks and average over the period exchange rates for converting flows, as described earlier. IMF trust fund (TF) and operations under the enhanced structural adjustment (ESAF, renamed in 1999), poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF), and structural adjustment facility (SAF), are presented together with all of the Fund’s special facilities (buffer stock, extended fund (EFF), supplemental reserve (SRF), compensatory and contingency, oil facilities, and other facilities). Data are from the Treasurer’s Department of the IMF.

Treatment of arrears The DRS collects information on arrears in both principal and interest. Principal in arrears is included and identified in the amount of long-term debt outstanding. Interest in arrears of long-term debt and the use of IMF credit is included and identified in the amount of short-term debt outstanding. If and when interest in arrears is capitalized under a debt reorganization agreement, the amount of interest capitalized will be added to the amount of long-term debt outstanding and the corresponding deduction made from the amount of short-term debt outstanding.

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Treatment of debt restructurings The DRS attempts to capture accurately the effects of the different kinds of restructurings on both debt stocks and debt flows, consistent with the circumstances under which the restructuring takes place. Whether a flow has taken place is sometimes difficult to determine. In compiling and presenting the debt data, a distinction is made between cash flows and imputed flows. Based on this criterion, rescheduled service payments and the shift in liabilities from one financial instrument to another as a result of rescheduling are considered to be imputed flows. The imputed flows are recorded separately in the World Bank External Debt (WBXD) system, but these debt restructuring transactions are not evident in the main body of the debt data—only the resulting effect of these transactions is reflected. Changes in creditor and debtor status that can result from debt restructuring are also reflected. For example, when insured commercial credits are rescheduled, the creditor classification shifts from private sources to official sources (bilateral). This reflects the assumption of the assets by the official credit insurance agencies of the creditor countries. The debts to the original creditors are reduced by the amounts rescheduled, and a new obligation to the official creditor agencies is created. This shift also applies to private nonguaranteed debt that is reduced by the amounts rescheduled, which in turn are included in the public and publicly guaranteed debt owed to official creditors. On the debtor side, when a government accepts responsibility for the payment of rescheduled debt previously owed by private enterprises, the DRS registers a change in debtor categories in the DRS. Similarly, when short-term debt is included in a restructuring agreement, the rescheduled amount is shifted from short-term to long-term debt.

Methodology for projecting data The WBXD system of the DRS projects future disbursements of unutilized commitments and future debt service payments.

Future disbursements

Projections of disbursements help underpin future capital requirements in the implementation of externally financed projects. In addition, they help determine the interest

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portion of projected debt service. Future interest payments are based on projected debt outstanding that is itself determined by projected disbursements and repayments. The underlying assumptions of these projections are that loan commitments will be fully utilized and that the debtor country will repay all sums due. Future disbursements and debt service refer only to existing debt and do not reflect any assumptions on future borrowing. Disbursement projections use two methods: • Specific schedules. Debtor countries are requested to submit a calendar of future disbursements, if available, at the time individual loans are first reported. Country authorities are in a better position to provide estimated disbursement schedules when there is a solid public sector investment program in place. • Standard schedules. In the absence of specific schedules, the WBXD system projects disbursements by applying a set of profiles to the last actual undisbursed balance of individual loans. The profiles are derived under the assumption that specific sources of funds have some common characteristics that cause them to disburse, in the aggregate, in some observable pattern. Accordingly, some thirty profiles have been derived that roughly correspond to creditor type. Profiles exist for concessional and nonconcessional loans from official creditors. For bilateral lending, profiles have been developed for the Development Assistance Committee, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and other creditor groupings. For multilateral lending, specific profiles are available for major international organizations. An estimating equation for each profile is derived by applying regression analysis techniques to a body of data that contains actual disbursement information for each loan. Although these standard profiles are reestimated from time to time, under the best scenario they can only approximate the disbursement pattern of any single loan.

Future debt service payments Most projections of future debt service payments generated by the WBXD system are based on the repayment terms of the loans. Principal repayments (amortization) are based on the amount of loan commitments, and the amortization profile of most loans follows a set pattern. Using the first and final payment dates and the frequency of the payments,

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the system calculates the stream of principal payments due. If future payments are irregular, the WBXD system requires a schedule. Projected future interest payments are calculated similarly. Interest is based on the amount of debt disbursed and outstanding at the beginning of the period. Again, using the first and final interest payment dates and the frequency of payments, the system calculates the stream of interest payments due. If interest payments are irregular, the WBXD system requires a schedule. The published figures for projected debt service obligations are converted into U.S. dollars using the end-December 2004 exchange rates. Likewise the projection routine for variable interest rate debt, such as commercial bank debt based on the London interbank offer rate (LIBOR), assumes that the rate prevailing at the end of December 2004 will be effective throughout.

Metadata

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ll the tables throughout the print edition of GDF, including summary tables, regional and income group aggregate tables, and the country tables have been redesigned to better meet the needs of our clients. Summary tables present selected debt and resource flow statistics for the individual reporting countries and external debt data for regional and income groups. Country tables have been compressed to three pages primarily eliminating derived indicators. For the 135 individual countries that report to the World Bank’s DRS, tables are presented in a three-page layout containing 10 sections. The format of the regional and income group tables draws on the individual country table format and includes graphic presentations. As in the past, the database feeding the print edition continues to maintain all the derived indicator information. For all regional, income, and individual country tables, data definitions are presented below or footnoted where appropriate. Data definitions for other summary tables are, likewise, consistent with those below. 1. Summary debt data summarizes the stocks and flows of the major components of the external debt of the country. TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) consist of public and publicly guaranteed long-term debt,

A B O U T

private nonguaranteed long-term debt, the use of IMF credit, and short-term debt. Interest in arrears on long-term debt and the use of IMF credit are added to the short-term debt and are shown as separate lines. Arrears of principal and of interest have been disaggregated to show the arrears owed to official creditors and the arrears owed to private creditors. Principal in arrears on long-term debt are shown as memorandum items. The relation between total debt stock and its components is illustrated on page xxii. Long-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original or extended maturity of more than one year and that is owed to nonresidents and repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services. Long-term debt has three components: • Public debt, which is an external obligation of a public debtor, including the national government, a political subdivision (or an agency of either), and autonomous public bodies. • Publicly guaranteed debt, which is an external obligation of a private debtor that is guaranteed for repayment by a public entity. • Private nonguaranteed external debt, which is an external obligation of a private debtor that is not guaranteed for repayment by a public entity. Short-term external debt is defined as debt that has an original maturity of one year or less. Available data permit no distinction between public and private nonguaranteed short-term debt. Interest in arrears on long-term debt is defined as interest payment due but not paid, on a cumulative basis. Interest arrears are regarded as short-term debt. Thus, an increase in interest arrears will not be recorded as increase in LDOD. On the other hand, a clearing of interest arrears as payments of interest arrears will be allocated to the relevant flows, being long-term, or shortterm debt, depending on toward which flow the interest payments took place. It will be recorded as (1) a reduction of short term debt (Section 1); (2) a net change in interest arrears (Section 8). Similarly, the reduction of interest arrears through interest arrears restructured and interest arrears forgiven will also be recorded as a reduction of short-term debt (section 1) and as net change in interest arrears (section 8). In addition, interest arrears restructuring and interest restructuring will be recorded as interest capitalization (section 8).

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Principal in arrears on long-term debt is defined as principal repayment due but not paid, on a cumulative basis. Use of IMF credit denotes repurchase obligations to the IMF with respect to all uses of IMF resources (excluding those resulting from drawings in the reserve tranche) shown for the end of the year specified. Use of IMF credit comprises purchases outstanding under the credit tranches, including enlarged access resources and all special facilities, trust fund loans, and poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) and structural adjustment facility (SAF). • IMF purchases are total drawings on the general resources account of the IMF during the year specified, excluding drawings in the reserve tranche. • IMF repurchases are total repayments of outstanding drawings from the general resources account during the year specified, excluding repayments due in the reserve tranche. TOTAL DEBT FLOWS are consolidated data on disbursements, principal repayments, and interest payments for total long-term debt and transactions with the IMF and short-term debt. Disbursements are drawings on loan commitments during the year specified. Principal repayments are the amounts of principal (amortization) paid in foreign currency, goods, or services in the year specified. Net flows on debt are disbursements on long-term debt and IMF purchases minus principal repayments on long-term debt and IMF repurchases up to 1984. Beginning in 1985 this line includes the change in stock of short-term debt (excluding interest arrears for long-term debt). Thus if the change in stock is positive, a disbursement is assumed to have taken place; if negative, a repayment is assumed to have taken place. Interest payments are the amounts of interest paid in foreign currency, goods, or services in the year specified. Net transfers on debt are net flows minus interest payments (or disbursements minus total debt service payments). The concepts of net flows on debt, net transfers on debt, and aggregate net flows and net transfers are illustrated on pages xxiii and xxiv. Total debt service paid (TDS) is debt service payments on total long-term debt (public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed),

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use of IMF credit, and interest on short-term debt. 2. Aggregate net resource flows and transfers provides data series for aggregate net resource flows and net transfers (long-term). NET RESOURCE FLOWS (LONG-TERM) are the sum of net resource flows on long-term debt (excluding IMF credit) plus non-debt-creating flows: net foreign direct investment, portfolio equity flows, and official grants (excluding technical cooperation). Net foreign direct investment and portfolio equity flows are treated as private source flows. Grants for technical cooperation are shown as a memorandum item. Also available as memorandum items are official net resource flows and private net resource flows. Official net resource flows are the sum of net flows on long-term debt to official creditors (excluding the IMF) plus official grants (excluding technical cooperation). Private net resource flows are the sum of net flows on debt to private creditors plus net foreign direct investment and portfolio equity flows. Official net transfers and private net transfers are calculated as memorandum items as well. NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) are equal to net long-term resource flows minus interest payments on long-term loans and foreign direct investment profits. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is defined as investment that is made to acquire a lasting management interest (usually 10 percent of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in a country other than that of the investor (defined according to residency), the investor’s purpose being an effective voice in the management of the enterprise. It is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the balance of payments. FDI includes inter-company debt. Portfolio equity flows are the sum of country funds, depository receipts (American or global), and direct purchases of shares by foreign investors. Grants are defined as legally binding commitments that obligate a specific value of funds available for disbursement for which there is no repayment requirement. The memorandum item technical cooperation grants includes free-standing technical cooperation grants, which are intended to finance the transfer of technical and managerial skills or of technology for the purpose of building up general national

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capacity without reference to any specific investment projects, and investment-related technical cooperation grants, which are provided to strengthen the capacity to execute specific investment projects. Profit remittances on foreign direct investment covers payments of direct investment income (debit side), which consist of income on equity (dividends, branch profits, and reinvested earnings) and income on the intercompany debt (interest). 3. Major economic aggregates provides data series for major economic aggregates. The five economic aggregates for the reporting economies are prepared for the convenience of users; the usual caution should be exercised in using them for economic analysis. Gross national income, or GNI (Gross national product, or GNP, in previous editions) is the sum of value added by all resident producers plus any product taxes (less subsidies) not included in the valuation of output plus net receipts of primary income (compensation of employees and property income) from abroad and uses yearly average exchange rates in converting GNI from local currency into U.S. dollars. Exports of goods, services and income (XGS) comprise the total value of goods and services exported, receipts of compensation of employees, and investment income. Workers’ remittances, a transfer and not an income entry in the balance of payments, are treated as compensation of employees in Global Development Finance because they are often difficult to distinguish from compensation of nonresident workers and migrants. Workers’ remittances and compensation of employees comprise current transfers by migrant workers, wages and salaries earned by nonresident workers. In addition, migrants’ transfers, a part of capital transfers, are treated as workers’ remittances in Global Development Finance. See GDF volume 1 for more details. Imports of goods and services (MGS) are the total value of goods and services imported and income paid. International reserves (RES) are the sum of a country’s monetary authority’s holdings of special drawing rights (SDRs), its reserve position in the IMF, its holdings of foreign exchange, and its holdings of gold (valued at year-end London prices).

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Current account balance is the sum of the credits less the debits arising from international transactions in goods, services, income, and current transfers. It represents the transactions that add to or subtract from an economy’s stock of foreign financial items. 4. Debt indicators The macroeconomic aggregates and debt data provided in the tables are used to generate ratios that analysts use to assess the external situations of developing countries. Different analysts give different weights to these indicators, but no single indicator or set of indicators can substitute for a thorough analysis of the overall situation of an economy. The advantage of the indicators in Global Development Finance is that they are calculated from standardized data series that are compiled on a consistent basis by the World Bank and the IMF. The ratios offer various measures of the cost of, or capacity for, servicing debt in terms of the foreign exchange or output forgone. The following ratios are provided based on total external debt: EDT/XGS is total external debt to exports of goods and services (including workers’ remittances). EDT/GNI is total external debt to gross national income. TDS/XGS, also called the debt service ratio, is total debt service to exports of goods and services (including workers’ remittances). INT/XGS, also called the interest service ratio, is total interest payments to exports of goods and services (including workers’ remittances). INT/GNI is total interest payments to gross national income. RES/EDT is international reserves to total external debt. RES/MGS is international reserves to imports of goods and services. Short-term/EDT is short-term debt to total external debt. Concessional/EDT is concessional debt to total external debt. Multilateral/EDT is multilateral debt to total external debt. 5. Long-term debt provides detailed information on stocks and flows of long-term debt and its various components. Data on bonds issued by private entities without public guarantee, compiled for major borrowers, are included in private

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nonguaranteed debt. IBRD loans and IDA credits are shown as memorandum items. Data on long-term debt include eight main elements, not all of which have been provided in the GDF print: DEBT OUTSTANDING AND DISBURSED is the total outstanding debt at year end. DISBURSEMENTS are drawings on loan commitments by the borrower during the year. PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS are amounts paid by the borrower during the year. NET FLOWS received by the borrower during the year are disbursements minus principal repayments. INTEREST PAYMENTS are amounts paid by the borrower during the year. NET TRANSFERS are net flows minus interest payments during the year; negative transfers show net transfers made by the borrower to the creditor during the year. DEBT SERVICE (LTDS) is the sum of principal repayments and interest payments actually made. UNDISBURSED DEBT is total debt undrawn at year end; data for private nonguaranteed debt are not available. Data are aggregated by type of creditor. Official creditors includes multilateral and bilateral debt. • Loans from multilateral organizations are loans and credits from the World Bank, regional development banks, and other multilateral and intergovernmental agencies. Excluded are loans from funds administered by an international organization on behalf of a single donor government; these are classified as loans from governments. • Bilateral loans are loans from governments and their agencies (including central banks), loans from autonomous bodies, and direct loans from official export credit agencies. Private creditors include bonds, commercial banks, and other private creditors. Other private creditors comprise trade-related lending. • Bonds include publicly issued or privately placed bonds. • Commercial banks are loans from private banks and other private financial institutions. • Other private includes credits from manufacturers, exporters, and other suppliers of goods, and bank credits covered by a guarantee of an export credit agency.

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Four characteristics of a country’s debt are given as memorandum items for long-term debt outstanding and disbursed (LDOD) in the electronic database. Concessional LDOD conveys information about the borrower’s receipt of aid from official lenders at concessional terms as defined by the DAC, that is, loans with an original grant element of 25 percent or more. Loans from major regional development banks—African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the Inter-American Development Bank—and from the World Bank are classified as concessional according to each institution’s classification and not according to the DAC definition, as was the practice in earlier reports. Variable interest rate LDOD is long-term debt with interest rates that float with movements in a key market rate such as the London interbank offer rate (LIBOR) or the U.S. prime rate. This item conveys information about the borrower’s exposure to changes in international interest rates. Public sector LDOD and private sector LDOD convey information about the distribution of long-term debt for DRS countries by type of debtor (central government, state and local government, central bank, public and mixed enterprises, official development banks, private banks, and private entities). 6. Currency composition of public and publicly guaranteed debt provides information on the currency composition of loans outstanding and disbursed based on repayment currency of individual loans. For major multilateral creditors, currency composition is based on reporting currency, which is mostly US$ and Unit of Account. The major currencies in which the external debt of low- and middleincome countries is contracted are separately identified, as is debt denominated in special drawing rights and debt repayable in multiple currencies. Beginning in 2001, debt denominated in the currencies of the 12 members in the European Monetary Union is included under the euro. 7. Debt restructurings provides information on restructurings of long-term debt starting in 1985. Debt restructurings include restructurings in the context of the Paris Club, commercial banks, debtequity swaps, buybacks, and bond exchanges. In the event of a swap of long term debt (debt-toequity, debt-for-nature, or debt-for-development),

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the face value of the debt swapped will be recorded as a decline in the long-term debt stock, but the operation will not be recorded as a principal repayment. For example, if a country swaps debt of face value D against equity, then LDOD will decline by D and a principal repayment will not be reported. Debt restructuring data capture the non-cash or inferred flows associated with rescheduling and restructuring. These are presented to complement the cash-basis transactions recorded in the main body of the data, which show both the stock and flows rescheduled each year. In addition, the amount of debt forgiven (interest forgiven is shown as a memorandum item) and the amount of debt stock reduction (including debt buyback) are also shown separately. Total amount rescheduled is the total amount of debt rescheduled, which includes the debt stock, principal, interest, charges, and penalties rescheduled. Debt stock rescheduled is the amount of debt outstanding rescheduled in any given year. Principal rescheduled is the amount of principal due or in arrears that was rescheduled in any given year. Interest rescheduled is the amount of interest due or in arrears that was rescheduled in any given year. Debt forgiven is the amount of principal due or in arrears that was written off or forgiven in any given year. It includes debt forgiven within and outside Paris Club agreements, principal forgiven and principal arrears forgiven, and excludes interest forgiven. Interest arrears forgiven and future interest obligations forgiven are recorded as a memo item under interest forgiven (section 7). Interest forgiven is the amount of interest due or in arrears that was written off or forgiven in any given year. Debt stock reduction is the amount that has been netted out of the stock of debt using debt conversion schemes such as buybacks and equity swaps or the discounted value of long-term bonds that were issued in exchange for outstanding debt. It includes the effect of any financial operation that will reduce the debt stock other than debt stock restructuring, repayment of principal and debt forgiven (which is recorded separately in section 7). In particular, “debt stock reduction” will include the face value of debt bought back, the face value of debt swapped for equity (or “nature”

A B O U T

or “development”), any face value reduction that might result as the consequence of a bond exchange, and any face value reduction resulting from an exchange of debt for discount bonds. Debt buyback is the repurchase by a debtor of its own debt, discounted or at par. In the event of a buyback of long-term debt, the face value of the debt bought back will be recorded as a decline in the long-term debt stock, and the cash amount received by creditors will be recorded as a principal repayment in Section 5. For example, if a country buys back long-term debt of face value B at a price p, then LDOD will decline by B, and principal repayment will go up by p*B. The difference between the secondary market price at which the debt was bought back and the face value is recorded as a debt stock write off (Section 8). Both debt buyback and debt stock write off are included in the debt stock reduction (Section 7). 8. Debt stock-flow reconciliation reconciles the stock and flow data on total external debt for each year, beginning with 1989. This section is designed to illustrate the changes in stock that have taken place due to five factors: the net flow on debt, the net change in interest arrears, the capitalization of interest, the reduction in debt resulting from debt forgiveness or other debt reduction mechanisms, and the cross-currency valuation effects. The residual difference—the change in stock not explained by any of the factors identified above—is also presented. The residual is calculated as the sum of identified accounts minus the change in stock. Where the residual is large it can, in some cases, serve as an illustration of the inconsistencies in the reported data. More often, however, it can be explained by specific borrowing phenomena in individual countries. These are explained in the Country Notes section. Not all components are provided in the GDF print. Total change in debt stock is the variation in the total debt stock between two consecutive years. Net flows on debt are disbursements on longterm debt and IMF purchases minus principal repayments, IMF repurchases and change in the stock of the short-term debt. Net change in interest arrears is the variation in the total amount of interest in arrears between two consecutive years. Interest capitalized is the interest that became part of the stock of debt due to a rescheduling operation.

D A T A

Debt forgiveness or reduction is the debt stock, principal and/or interest that will not be paid. Cross-currency valuation effect arises from movements in the value of the dollar against other world currencies, as well as debt forgiveness or reduction, and effect the value of developingcountry debt. Countries contract debt in various currencies. The debt data that countries report to the World Bank’s Debtor Reporting System is expressed in the currencies in which the original debt was contracted or in currencies in which it is repayable. For purposes of standardization and aggregation, the DRS converts these amounts into dollar values. The exchange rates used are generally the par values or central rates specified by the International Monetary Fund or market rates when necessary. Exchange rates in effect at the end of any given year are used to convert the stock of debt outstanding for that year in various currencies into the nominal dollar value. Residual is the change in the total debt stock that is not justified by the operations listed in this section. 9. Average terms of new commitments provides information on the average terms of new commitments on public and publicly guaranteed debt and information on the level of commitments from official and private sources. To obtain averages, the interest rates, maturities, and grace periods in each category have been weighted by the amounts of the loans. The grant equivalent of a loan is its commitment (present) value, less the discounted present value of its contractual debt service; conventionally, future service payments are discounted at 10 percent. Net Present Value (NPV) of debt—the nominal amount outstanding minus the sum of all future debt-service obligations (interest and principal) on existing debt discounted at an interest rate different from the contracted rate. The grant element of a loan is the grant equivalent expressed as a percentage of the amount committed. It is used as a measure of the overall cost of borrowing. Loans with an original grant element of 25 percent or more are defined as concessional. The average grant element has been weighted by the amounts of the loans. Commitments cover the total amount of loans for which contracts were signed in the year specified; data for private nonguaranteed debt are not available.

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G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Grace period—the grace period for principal is the period from the date of signature of the loan or the issue of the financial instrument to the first repayment of principal. The repayment period is the period from the first to last repayment of principal. Maturity is the number of years to original maturity date, which is the sum of grace and repayment periods. 10. Projections on existing pipeline provides anticipated disbursements and contractual obligations on long-term debt contracted up to December 2004. Projected debt service payments are estimates of payments due on existing debt outstanding, including undisbursed. They do not include service payments that may become due as a result of new loans contracted in subsequent years. Nor do they allow for effects on service payments of changes in repayment patterns owing to prepayment of loans or to rescheduling or refinancing, including repayment of outstanding arrears, that occurred after the last year of reported data. Projected disbursements are estimates of drawings of unutilized balances. The projections do not take into account future borrowing by the debtor country. (See the Methodology section for a detailed explanation of how undisbursed balances are projected.)

Country Notes

C

ountry notes at the end of each country table summarize major events that have taken place in the country in recent years and describe the sources of information for short-term and private non guaranteed debt and main issues on data collection process.

Sources

T

he principal sources of information for the tables in this volume are reports to the World Bank through the DRS from member countries that have received either IBRD loans or IDA credits. Additional information has been drawn from the files of the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Central Bank for Economic Integration, the Inter-American Development Bank, the IBRD and the IDA, and the

xx

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (The IBRD and IDA are components of the World Bank.) Reporting countries submit detailed (loan-byloan) reports through the DRS on the annual status, transactions, and terms of the long-term external debt of public agencies and that of private ones guaranteed by a public agency in the debtor country. This information forms the basis for the tables in this volume. Aggregate data on private debt without public guarantee are compiled and published as reliable reported and estimated information becomes available. This edition includes data on private nonguaranteed debt, either as reported or as estimated, for countries, when available. The short-term debt data are as reported by the debtor countries or are estimates. The principal creditor sources are the semiannual series of commercial banks’ claims on developing countries, published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). For some countries, estimates were prepared by pooling creditor and debtor information. Data on long-term debt reported by member countries are checked against, and supplemented by, data from several other sources. Among these are the statements and reports of several regional development banks, government lending agencies, and official government websites. Data on exports and imports (on a balance of payments basis), international reserves, and current account balances are drawn mainly from the files of the IMF, supplemented by World Bank staff estimates. Balance of payments data are presented according to the fifth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual, which made several adjustments to its presentation of trade statistics. Coverage of goods was expanded to include in imports the value of goods received for processing and repair (on a gross basis). Their subsequent re-export is recorded in exports (also on a gross basis). This approach will cause a country’s imports and exports to increase without affecting the balance of goods. In addition, all capital transfers, which were included with current transfers in the fourth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, are now shown in a separate capital (as opposed to financial) account, and so do not contribute to the current account balance. Gross national income (GNI) data for most developing countries are collected from national statistical organizations and central banks by

A B O U T

visiting and resident World Bank missions. Data on GNI are from the Macroeconomic Data Team of the Development Economics Development Data Group of the World Bank. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the debt statistics. Nevertheless, quality and coverage vary among debtors and may also vary for the same debtor from year to year. Coverage has been improved through the efforts of the reporting agencies and the work of World Bank missions, which visit member countries to gather data and to provide technical assistance on debt issues.

D A T A

Symbols

T • • •

he following symbols have been used throughout: 0.0 indicates that a datum exists, but is negligible, or is a true zero. .. indicates that a datum is not available. Dollars are current U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified.

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Abbreviations The following abbreviations are used in the principal ratios and indicator tables: BIS CRS DAC DDSR DRS EDT FDI GNI IBRD IDA IMF INT LDOD LIBOR MGS MYRA NPV ODA OECD OPEC RES SDR TDS WBXD XGS

Bank for International Settlements Creditor Reporting System (of the OECD) Development Assistance Committee (of the OECD) Debt and debt service reduction Debtor Reporting System (of the World Bank) Total external debt, including short-term and use of IMF credit Foreign direct investment Gross national income International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank International Development Association (of the World Bank) International Monetary Fund Total interest payments on long-term and short-term debt, including IMF charges Total long-term debt outstanding and disbursed London interbank offer rate Imports of goods and services Multiyear rescheduling agreement Net present value of debt Official development assistance Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries International reserves Special drawing right (of the IMF) Total debt service on long-term debt and short-term (interest only), including IMF Credits World Bank External Debt System Exports of goods and services

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G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Debt stock and its components

Total external debt (EDT)

Short-term debt

Long-term debt (LDOD)

Use of IMF credits

by debtor

Private nonguaranteed debt

Public and publicly guaranteed debt

by creditor

Official creditors

Multilateral

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Private creditors

Bilateral

Commercial banks

Bonds

Other

A B O U T

D A T A

Aggregate net resource flows and net transfers (long-term) to developing countries

Loan disbursements

minus

Principal repayments

equals

Debt service (LTDS)

Net resource flows on debt

plus

Foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio equity flows, and official grants

equals

Aggregate net resource flows

minus

minus

Interest payments

Loan interest and FDI profits

equals

equals

Net transfers on debt

Aggregate net transfers

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G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Aggregate net resource flows (long-term) and the balance of payments

Credits

Current account

Capital and financial account

• Exports of goods and services

• Imports of goods and services

• Income received

• Income paid

• Current transfers (including workers’ remittances and private grants)

• Current transfers

• Official unrequited transfers (by foreign governments)

• Official unrequited transfers (by national government)

• Official unrequited transfer (by foreign governments)

• Official unrequited transfer (by national government)

• Foreign direct investment (by nonresidents) (disinvestment shown as negative)

• Foreign direct investment (by residents) (disinvestment shown as negative)

• Portfolio investment (by nonresidents) (amortizations shown as negative)

• Portfolio investment (abroad by residents) (amortizations shown as negative)

• Other long-term capital inflows (by nonresidents) (amortizations shown as negative)

• Other long-term capital outflows (by residents) (amortizations shown as negative)

• Short-term capital inflow

• Short-term capital outflow

Reserve account

Aggregate net resource flows Net resource flows on debt (long-term)

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Debits

Net changes in reserves

Country groups Regional groups East Asia and Pacific Cambodia (A) China (P) Fiji (A) Indonesia (P) Lao PDR (P) Malaysia (P) Mongolia (A) Myanmar (E) Papua New Guinea (A) Philippines (A) Samoa (A) Solomon Islands (A) Thailand (P) Tonga (A) Vanuatu (A) Vietnam (P) Europe and Central Asia Albania (A) Armenia (A) Azerbaijan (A) Belarus (A) Bosnia and Herzegovinaa (A) Bulgaria (A) Croatia (A) Czech Republic (P) Estonia (A) Georgia (A) Hungary (A) Kazakhstan (A) Kyrgyz Republic (A) Latvia (A) Lithuania (A) Macedonia, FYR (A) Moldova (A) Poland (A) Romania (A)

Russian Federation (P) Slovak Republic (A) Serbia and Montenegroa (A) Tajikistan (P) Turkey (A) Ukraine (A) Uzbekistan (A) Latin America and the Caribbean Argentina (A) Barbados (E) Belize (A) Bolivia (A) Brazil (A) Chile (A) Colombia (A) Costa Rica (A) Dominica (A) Dominican Republic (E) Ecuador (P) El Salvador (A) Grenada (A) Guatemala (A) Guyana (A) Haiti (A) Honduras (A) Jamaica (A) Mexico (A) Nicaragua (A) Panama (A) Paraguay (A) Peru (A) St. Kitts and Nevis (A) St. Lucia (A) St. Vincent and the Grenadines (A) Trinidad and Tobago (A) Uruguay (A) Venezuela, R.B. de (A)

Middle East and North Africa Algeria (A) Djibouti (A) Egypt, Arab Rep. of (A) Iran, Islamic Rep. of (A) Jordan (A) Lebanon (A) Morocco (A) Oman (A) Syrian Arab Republic (E) Tunisia (A) Yemen, Republic of (A) South Asia Bangladesh (A) Bhutan (A) India (A) Maldives (A) Nepal (A) Pakistan (P) Sri Lanka (A) Sub-Saharan Africa Angola (P) Benin (E) Botswana (A) Burkina Faso (A) Burundi (A) Cameroon (P) Cape Verde (A) Central African Republic (P) Chad (P) Comoros (P) Congo, Dem. Rep. of (P) Congo, Rep. of (P) Côte d’Ivoire (E)

Equatorial Guinea (E) Eritrea (A) Ethiopia (A) Gabon (E) Gambia,The (A) Ghana (A) Guinea (E) Guinea-Bissau (P) Kenya (A) Lesotho (A) Liberia (E) Madagascar (A) Malawi (A) Mali (A) Mauritania (A) Mauritius (A) Mozambique (P) Niger (P) Nigeria (P) Rwanda (E) São Tomé and Principe (P) Senegal (P) Seychelles (A) Sierra Leone (A) Somalia (E) South Africa (P) Sudan (A) Swaziland (P) Tanzania (P) Togo (A) Uganda (A) Zambia (E) Zimbabwe (A)

Note: Letters in parenthesis indicate DRS reporters’ status: (A) as reported, (P) preliminary, and (E) estimated. The status “as reported” indicates that the country was fully current in its reporting under the DRS and that World Bank staff are satisfied that the reported data give an adequate and fair representation of the country’s total public debt. “Preliminary” data are based on reported or collected information but, because of incompleteness or other reasons, include an element of staff estimation. “Estimated” data indicate that countries are not current in their reporting and that a significant element of staff estimation has been necessary in producing the data tables. a. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, total debt before 1999, excluding IBRD and IMF obligations and short-term debt, is included under Serbia and Montenegro.

xxvii

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Income groups Low-income countries Bangladesh Benin Bhutan Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Côte d’Ivoire Eritrea Ethiopia Gambia,The Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Haiti India Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Moldova Mongolia Mozambique Myanmar Nepal

Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan Papua New Guinea Rwanda São Tomé and Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Somalia Sudan Tajikistan Tanzania Togo Uganda Uzbekistan Vietnam Yemen, Republic of Zambia Zimbabwe

Middle-income countries Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Barbados Belarus Belize Bolivia Botswana Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Cape Verde Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Czech Republic Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Estonia Fiji Gabon Georgia Grenada Guatemala Guyana Honduras Hungary Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. of Jamaica

Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Malaysia Maldives Mauritius Mexico Morocco Oman Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Romania Russian Federation Samoa Serbia and Montenegro Seychelles Slovak Republic South Africa Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Swaziland Syrian Arab Republic Thailand Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Ukraine Uruguay Vanuatu Venezuela, R.B. de

Note: Low-income countries are those in which 2004 GNI per capita (calculated using the World Bank Atlas method) was no more than $825; middle-income countries are those in which GNI per capita was between $826 and $10,065.

xxviii

Summary tables

xxix

G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table 1: External debt ratios 2002–2004 (US$ millions)

Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire Croatia Czech Republic Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Ghana Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary India

Total external debt 2004

Present value of debt 2004

1,549 21,987 9,521 169,247 1,224 1,986 20,344 703 3,717 959 1,916 593 6,096 3,202 524 222,026 15,661 1,967 1,385 3,377 9,496 517 1,078 1,701 44,058 248,934 37,732 306 11,841 5,829 5,700 11,739 31,548 45,561 428 226 6,965 16,868 30,292 7,250 291 681 10,008 6,574 202 4,150 674 2,082 7,035 433 5,532 3,538 765 1,331 1,225 6,332 63,159 122,723

1,056 21,322 8,801 191,462 1,412 1,586 14,064 758 3,672 1,062 807 595 3,007 2,499 445 239,389 16,111 925 92 2,869 2,309 358 885 781 42,808 241,695 40,780 218 2,032 9,007 6,031 11,602 30,686 43,834 297 204 6,799 18,179 26,775 7,828 245 405 9,584 2,061 197 3,923 391 1,567 2,396 397 5,720 1,577 754 508 949 2,516 59,742 109,852

Ratio of total external debt to exports of GS (%)

74 82 89 451 113 56 179 44 30 188 268 431 275 80 14 239 139 432 3,069 117 296 144 730 172 145 48 189 389 765 230 66 172 200 73 — 176 62 191 123 114 10 260 138 460 16 124 398 133 222 232 85 416 791 171 98 171 115 106

Ratio of present value of debt to exports of GS (%)

Ratio of total external debt to GNI (%)

Ratio of present value of debt to GNI (%)

51 80 82 510 130 45 124 48 30 208 113 432 136 63 12 258 143 203 203 99 72 100 599 79 141 46 204 276 131 356 70 170 194 71 — 159 61 205 108 123 9 154 132 144 16 117 231 100 76 213 88 186 779 65 76 68 108 95

25 33 74 141 43 29 37 27 20 99 56 99 77 44 8 44 81 48 227 80 81 67 91 73 58 15 45 99 208 214 34 91 113 53 65 93 39 65 36 50 .. 90 116 97 9 80 186 49 95 115 22 100 331 189 37 95 80 21

17 32 68 159 50 23 26 29 20 109 24 100 38 34 6 47 83 23 15 68 20 46 75 33 57 15 49 70 36 331 36 90 110 51 45 84 39 70 32 54 .. 53 111 30 9 75 108 37 32 106 23 45 326 72 29 38 76 18

(Table continues on next page)

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S U M M A R Y

T A B L E S

Table 1: External debt ratios 2002–2004 (Continued) (US$ millions)

Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. of Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Samoa Sao Tomé and Principe Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Seychelles Sierra Leone Slovak Republic Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Swaziland

Total external debt 2004

Present value of debt 2004

140,649 13,622 6,399 8,175 32,310 6,826 2,100 2,056 12,661 22,177 764 2,706 9,475 2,044 3,462 3,418 52,145 345 3,316 2,297 2,294 138,689 1,868 1,517 17,672 4,651 7,239 3,354 5,145 1,950 35,890 3,872 35,687 9,469 2,149 3,433 31,296 60,550 99,190 30,034 197,335 1,656 562 362 3,938 15,882 615 1,723 22,068 176 2,849 28,500 10,887 316 413 257 19,332 470

136,417 12,917 7,163 7,645 30,486 5,032 1,516 1,550 12,439 23,045 559 3,052 9,501 1,794 1,781 1,086 52,456 275 1,296 814 2,245 154,677 1,727 1,144 16,683 806 5,462 2,214 1,423 674 35,462 3,784 28,641 11,510 1,967 3,295 33,768 62,301 95,838 29,506 201,995 258 500 101 1,446 15,374 631 358 21,701 135 3,045 26,742 9,026 309 401 233 25,273 491

Ratio of total external debt to exports of GS (%)

181 33 126 108 193 185 240 365 243 470 88 1,891 95 107 330 584 42 58 251 526 70 69 117 143 96 310 233 180 283 452 141 30 194 106 87 109 245 120 126 138 117 964 451 1,655 165 216 101 903 87 169 .. 58 134 217 109 143 478 24

Ratio of present value of debt to exports of GS (%)

175 31 141 101 182 136 173 276 239 488 64 2,133 96 94 170 186 42 46 98 186 69 77 108 108 91 54 176 119 78 156 140 29 156 129 80 104 265 124 121 136 120 150 400 459 61 209 104 188 86 129 .. 54 111 212 105 129 625 25

Ratio of total external debt to GNI (%)

Ratio of present value of debt to GNI (%)

63 10 79 77 107 47 114 101 112 116 60 674 53 45 74 188 52 52 83 161 44 22 81 114 41 98 .. 56 127 74 72 18 44 77 72 54 52 71 47 52 45 96 177 666 60 80 94 177 68 76 .. 18 61 96 64 71 116 26

61 9 89 72 101 34 82 76 110 121 44 760 53 39 38 60 53 42 33 57 43 24 75 86 39 17 .. 37 35 25 71 18 35 94 66 52 57 73 45 51 46 15 158 185 22 77 96 37 67 58 .. 17 50 94 62 64 151 27

(Table continues on next page)

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G L O B A L

D E V E L O P M E N T

F I N A N C E

2 0 0 6

Table 1: External debt ratios 2002–2004 (Continued) (US$ millions)

Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Uganda Ukraine Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela, R.B. de Vietnam Yemen, Rep. of Zambia Zimbabwe

Total external debt 2004

Present value of debt 2004

Ratio of total external debt to exports of GS (%)

21,521 896 7,799 51,307 1,812 81 2,926 18,700 161,595 4,822 21,652 12,376 5,007 118 35,570 17,825 5,488 7,279 4,797

21,412 638 2,248 49,645 1,429 58 3,160 18,571 167,279 2,062 21,942 12,840 4,768 94 41,749 15,401 3,826 1,533 4,809

250 78 398 52 242 125 49 148 213 379 70 338 130 81 106 75 95 530 264

Ratio of present value of debt to exports of GS (%)

Ratio of total external debt to GNI (%)

Ratio of present value of debt to GNI (%)

249 55 115 50 191 90 53 147 221 162 71 351 123 64 125 65 66 112 264

102 58 76 36 106 46 29 79 67 78 42 104 48 44 38 45 53 170 33

101 41 22 35 83 33 31 79 69 33 42 108 45 35 45 39 37 36 33

—Not available Notes: For definition of indicators, see Sources and Definitions section. Country names in italics indicate HIPC countries. Numbers in italics include the effects of traditional relief and HIPC relief and are based on publicly guaranteed debt only. Under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), IDA, IMF and the African Development Fund are currently finalizing arrangements to provide debt stock cancellation to postcompletion point HIPCs on debt owed to the three institutions. The IMF and ADF are providing 100 percent stock cancellation on debts outstanding as of end-2004, while IDA will provide 100 percent stock cancellation on debts owed as of end-2003. The present value of debt for HIPCs provided in the GDF does not incorporate debt reduction under the MDRI and may include penalty charges. Exports comprise the total value of goods and services exported, receipts of compensations of employees and investment income and worker’s remittances. In the ratios, the numerator refers to the 2004 data and the denominator is an average of 2002 to 2004 data. For exports and GNI averages, staff estimates are used when necessary.

xxxii

S U M M A R Y

T A B L E S

Table 2: Composition of external debt (US$ millions) Total debt stock

Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire Croatia Czech Republic Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Ghana Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary India

Total debt / GNI (%)

Long-term debt / total debt (%)

Distribution of long-term debt (%) Multilateral

Bilateral

Private

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

709 27,997 10,299 145,657 902 1,073 16,567 444 2,199 396 1,687 184 5,546 .. 504 245,210 11,020 1,588 1,135 2,517 9,479 327 909 1,151 34,815 152,085 34,424 237 12,048 5,033 4,216 13,170 11,411 22,798 275 118 4,686 16,257 31,045 3,793 271 253 2,491 5,544 161 3,982 465 1,653 6,420 136 3,781 3,522 934 1,413 1,185 5,519 29,874 98,313

1,549 21,987 9,521 169,247 1,224 1,986 20,344 703 3,717 959 1,916 593 6,096 3,202 524 222,026 15,661 1,967 1,385 3,377 9,496 517 1,078 1,701 44,058 248,934 37,732 306 11,841 5,829 5,700 11,739 31,548 45,561 428 226 6,965 16,868 30,292 7,250 291 681 10,008 6,574 202 4,150 674 2,082 7,035 433 5,532 3,538 765 1,331 1,225 6,332 63,159 122,723

20 62 218 53 47 24 35 19 18 57 71 49 69 .. 11 47 86 57 161 73 109 57 88 76 49 14 41 106 279 306 30 112 58 40 50 49 29 106 34 31 65 35 46 86 9 104 113 56 85 39 21 104 444 221 29 105 66 22

20 27 55 117 39 25 34 26 16 90 47 90 73 37 6 38 66 41 216 72 68 55 82 63 48 13 40 84 186 178 32 80 94 45 60 89 40 59 39 47 .. 75 95 83 8 67 171 39 80 113 20 92 284 177 34 90 67 18

85 92 85 77 72 59 97 100 32 87 87 99 88 .. 96 84 77 86 93 91 84 94 91 92 88 90 88 91 69 78 82 86 92 61 90 84 76 93 86 72 77 100 65 97 89 83 93 80 84 83 71 87 89 80 88 88 88 96

94 95 91 75 80 83 94 100 21 100 95 100 93 85 93 77 72 93 96 89 90 90 86 93 83 53 86 90 89 87 70 92 93 62 92 95 83 89 90 75 84 98 70 97 63 92 92 82 83 80 71 90 96 86 97 90 80 94

57 16 4 14 70 45 70 60 36 37 65 51 57 .. 70 9 18 88 86 14 18 72 74 84 5 17 21 81 27 15 39 28 6 6 57 68 31 23 15 67 47 47 8 51 75 16 80 36 68 49 52 55 48 51 86 54 6 33

60 16 4 13 86 39 77 43 16 23 77 29 77 63 67 11 23 93 86 31 20 77 73 88 3 20 32 81 29 12 37 32 5 6 70 58 30 25 15 41 49 72 1 76 72 12 81 49 87 27 52 60 65 74 83 60 4 27

36 55 31 5 27 30 29 20 27 26 35 49 30 .. 24 5 14 12 14 86 73 25 22 15 2 19 5 19 66 65 20 36 8 2 43 31 50 16 81 22 46 53 2 47 8 80 20 62 20 44 24 44 52 45 14 32 3 29

35 58 35 4 11 41 20 12 46 8 23 71 5 27 30 4 6 7 14 69 71 18 24 10 1 23 3 19 67 71 8 37 3 2 29 19 19 16 82 11 44 28 0 20 23 81 19 45 7 14 13 39 35 24 17 28 1 17

7 29 66 81 3 25 1 20 38 37 0 0 14 .. 7 86 68 0 0 0 9 3 4 1 93 63 74 0 6 20 40 36 86 92 0 1 19 61 4 11 6 0 90 2 17 4 0 1 11 6 23 1 0 4 0 14 91 38

5 25 60 83 3 20 3 46 38 69 0 0 18 10 3 84 71 0 1 0 8 5 3 2 96 56 65 0 4 17 55 31 92 92 1 23 51 59 4 48 7 0 98 4 6 6 0 6 5 59 35 1 0 2 0 12 96 55

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Table 2: Composition of external debt (Continued) (US$ millions) Total debt stock

Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. of Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Samoa Sao Tomé and Principe Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Seychelles Sierra Leone Slovak Republic Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Sudan Swaziland

Total debt / GNI (%)

Long-term debt / total debt (%)

Distribution of long-term debt (%) Multilateral

Bilateral

Private

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

151,221 9,905 3,918 8,083 6,129 6,475 1,736 2,527 4,061 8,205 682 2,077 4,419 1,417 4,745 2,742 41,903 219 3,196 2,532 1,847 166,463 1,022 914 22,973 6,971 6,004 2,993 6,909 1,667 29,128 6,839 33,891 6,841 2,695 3,383 29,179 58,315 65,943 9,015 174,754 1,294 192 324 3,944 10,901 254 1,298 12,575 165 2,606 23,907 9,815 138 196 194 16,132 361

140,649 13,622 6,399 8,175 32,310 6,826 2,100 2,056 12,661 22,177 764 2,706 9,475 2,044 3,462 3,418 52,145 345 3,316 2,297 2,294 138,689 1,868 1,517 17,672 4,651 7,239 3,354 5,145 1,950 35,890 3,872 35,687 9,469 2,149 3,433 31,296 60,550 99,190 30,034 197,335 1,656 562 362 3,938 15,882 615 1,723 22,068 176 2,849 28,500 10,887 316 413 257 19,332 470

117 9 52 101 37 51 148 179 57 46 59 621 42 39 129 158 57 39 127 232 44 36 85 102 67 185 .. 59 195 83 87 45 54 64 83 44 58 73 40 26 93 67 84 766 85 107 43 203 63 51 .. 18 64 50 31 63 171 25

57 8 76 70 85 43 99 87 92 107 47 687 44 38 81 186 47 48 71 142 38 21 64 95 36 81 .. 50 118 64 59 17 38 75 61 47 48 67 42 42 35 91 150 612 52 67 92 164 54 69 .. 14 57 91 61 67 99 20

80 63 78 83 85 86 86 98 48 73 97 51 71 89 92 94 86 89 88 85 69 83 81 92 91 92 89 98 85 91 78 73 90 91 96 78 82 88 83 91 82 90 81 91 85 62 84 82 77 97 71 55 88 97 72 84 58 85

76 74 82 88 89 88 90 98 40 82 95 43 60 93 93 96 78 88 94 89 41 93 63 86 99 88 78 99 86 93 87 66 91 96 92 81 92 90 83 82 80 93 31 97 94 82 84 88 53 94 68 72 92 99 62 87 63 97

16 8 34 27 28 52 44 42 28 10 74 37 12 42 41 79 4 64 57 45 20 12 48 53 31 17 23 87 42 66 17 6 47 16 36 41 22 15 4 33 5 87 94 58 58 22 27 50 8 67 39 0 42 36 66 41 22 48

17 3 27 27 6 57 60 77 8 5 78 39 7 49 88 83 3 61 73 70 29 13 38 62 34 53 23 87 63 88 9 25 50 13 46 47 27 13 2 23 4 91 92 61 80 34 15 61 9 67 41 1 45 31 56 36 21 53

30 40 43 55 16 34 30 58 4 6 12 43 8 26 58 20 9 20 43 54 23 4 24 46 35 56 67 13 50 30 57 9 39 5 21 20 38 27 42 10 45 13 6 42 41 41 48 42 6 9 59 0 44 38 19 23 59 44

39 12 18 69 3 37 32 23 1 5 13 43 5 18 12 17 14 11 27 30 33 2 22 38 33 24 62 13 24 10 83 17 42 3 24 24 30 25 20 3 30 9 8 39 16 30 35 39 2 24 57 0 45 21 8 15 56 33

54 52 23 18 55 14 26 0 69 84 14 19 80 32 1 1 87 16 0 1 58 84 28 1 34 28 10 0 8 5 26 85 14 79 44 39 40 58 54 56 50 0 0 0 1 37 26 8 86 24 2 100 14 25 16 36 20 8

44 84 55 4 90 6 8 0 91 90 10 18 88 33 0 0 83 28 0 0 38 85 39 0 32 23 15 0 13 2 7 58 8 84 31 29 43 62 77 75 66 0 0 0 5 36 50 1 90 9 2 99 9 48 36 50 23 15

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Table 2: Composition of external debt (Continued) (US$ millions) Total debt stock

Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Uganda Ukraine Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Venezuela, R.B. de Vietnam Yemen, Rep. of Zambia Zimbabwe All developing countries East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Low income Middle income

Total debt / GNI (%)

Long-term debt / total debt (%)

Distribution of long-term debt (%) Multilateral

Bilateral

Private

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

1999

2004

22,369 1,275 7,655 96,770 1,523 63 2,462 11,860 102,242 3,498 13,951 7,479 4,923 66 37,576 23,210 6,194 5,859 4,323

21,521 896 7,799 51,307 1,812 81 2,926 18,700 161,595 4,822 21,652 12,376 5,007 118 35,570 17,825 5,488 7,279 4,797

147 124 90 81 101 37 38 60 55 58 45 36 29 27 39 82 89 197 76

92 45 72 32 90 38 25 69 54 72 34 98 42 39 33 40 46 143 103

72 84 83 72 84 100 66 86 76 86 78 74 83 98 93 88 87 78 74

73 86 80 78 88 100 52 87 67 93 84 62 96 69 88 86 87 86 75

4 15 52 8 62 84 40 35 7 85 22 32 9 85 9 8 33 51 46

3 63 77 3 60 83 40 38 7 91 14 40 15 88 10 30 46 54 45

89 49 44 23 38 14 3 27 10 14 35 7 39 15 8 74 66 47 36

90 32 22 24 40 17 1 20 6 8 15 2 42 12 1 60 53 33 41

7 36 4 69 0 2 58 38 83 1 43 61 52 0 83 18 1 2 19

7 5 2 73 0 0 59 42 87 1 71 58 43 0 89 10 2 13 15

2,345,735

2,755,725

44

17

18

24

20

58

62

538,808 502,870 772,332 155,745 161,982 213,997

588,888 794,943 778,970 163,935 193,933 235,056

35 59 45 43 28 69

22 46 40 33 22 48

83 79 83 83 94 78

68 76 82 86 93 84

14 9 14 19 41 34

16 8 17 19 39 38

27 28 8 55 31 43

29 15 6 48 24 41

59 63 78 26 27 23

55 77 77 33 37 21

385,468 1,960,267

426,945 2,328,780

48 43

36 34

87 82

89 77

37 13

41 13

42 21

36 17

20 66

23 70

34

83

79

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Table 3: Net flows from multilateral institutions, 2004 (US$ millions) World Bank

Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Azerbaijan Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belize Benin Bhutan Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Chile China Colombia Comoros Congo, Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Costa Rica Côte d’Ivoire Croatia Czech Republic Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, Arab Rep. of El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Fiji Gabon Gambia, The Georgia Ghana Grenada Guatemala Guinea Guinea-Bissau

Total

IBRD

159.6 ⫺1,221.7 16.1 ⫺2,316.3 62.1 119.5 683.1 ⫺14.3 ⫺0.2 10.2 51.8 19.6 264.1 253.4 ⫺21.5 ⫺6,052.1 303.6 182.8 19.1 102.8 64.4 16.9 4.2 81.7 7.3 247.6 221.1 1.1 274.4 ⫺57.6 25.2 ⫺149.3 258.3 ⫺29.6 19.7 14.7 323.6 ⫺240.1 ⫺22.2 ⫺55.0 ⫺1.9 52.8 ⫺32.2 286.1 3.9 79.5 22.5 86.0 321.8 13.0 125.2 ⫺51.4 23.0

0.0 ⫺149.2 0.0 ⫺61.0 ⫺0.6 0.0 ⫺7.3 0.0 ⫺13.5 ⫺3.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 ⫺24.4 ⫺1.7 ⫺116.3 123.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺29.7 0.0 0.0 5.9 18.8 306.3 200.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺3.2 ⫺8.7 ⫺38.4 36.0 ⫺18.9 0.0 0.0 29.3 ⫺52.9 ⫺51.8 ⫺24.3 0.0 0.0 ⫺4.1 0.0 ⫺2.3 ⫺11.7 0.0 0.0 ⫺1.6 1.5 50.0 0.0 0.0

IMF

Regional development banks

IDA

conc.

non-conc.

conc.

non-conc.

Others

64.3 0.0 12.9 0.0 77.8 49.2 474.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.5 8.4 116.6 208.5 ⫺0.5 0.0 0.0 128.6 29.3 46.3 96.9 12.7 0.0 69.9 ⫺0.7 ⫺116.7 ⫺0.7 1.4 166.6 23.6 ⫺0.2 33.1 0.0 0.0 8.7 4.0 ⫺0.7 ⫺1.1 36.2 ⫺0.8 ⫺0.8 35.1 0.0 189.2 0.0 0.0 19.4 64.4 218.3 1.1 0.0 31.2 24.9

2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 ⫺21.7 147.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺5.6 0.0 ⫺21.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 39.1 ⫺10.4 ⫺22.9 1.8 ⫺2.4 ⫺12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺0.2 79.1 7.5 0.0 ⫺126.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺0.3 0.0 0.0 21.9 0.0 0.0 ⫺11.2 ⫺20.4 15.5 4.3 0.0 ⫺19.1 ⫺3.1

0.0 ⫺371.6 0.0 ⫺2,035.0 ⫺8.3 ⫺38.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.6 ⫺29.8 0.0 ⫺4,356.8 ⫺55.1 0.0 ⫺28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 64.9 ⫺112.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.0 0.0 ⫺13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺2.2

0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺20.8 ⫺1.2 0.0 0.0 33.7 6.1 80.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 37.6 ⫺13.3 53.5 48.5 3.0 0.0 7.5 ⫺1.8 0.0 ⫺17.3 0.0 44.4 ⫺0.7 ⫺11.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 ⫺20.3 ⫺27.0 15.4 ⫺23.5 ⫺0.2 19.1 0.0 68.3 0.0 ⫺0.2 6.7 0.0 47.9 0.0 ⫺18.4 1.3 4.1

11.2 ⫺679.6 ⫺1.6 ⫺145.5 ⫺7.8 ⫺8.5 71.8 ⫺5.2 ⫺13.2 6.5 ⫺0.4 0.0 ⫺69.3 4.8 ⫺9.3 ⫺1,468.2 ⫺10.9 ⫺0.2 ⫺7.0 0.0 ⫺26.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺49.8 200.3 ⫺71.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺74.7 1.7 ⫺0.4 43.6 ⫺13.4 0.0 0.0 208.7 ⫺90.5 0.3 ⫺20.6 ⫺0.2 0.0 0.0 ⫺4.4 6.6 52.6 0.0 ⫺6.3 6.6 0.0 61.1 ⫺40.6 0.0

52.6 ⫺53.0 4.3 0.0 ⫺3.8 148.4 13.1 ⫺7.9 15.3 6.8 ⫺12.5 0.1 103.2 76.5 ⫺10.2 ⫺4.5 237.1 14.6 ⫺0.6 9.5 2.6 ⫺0.6 ⫺1.6 12.7 ⫺1.5 ⫺201.5 115.3 ⫺0.1 ⫺10.9 ⫺2.3 39.1 ⫺12.2 60.5 122.0 8.7 9.7 2.6 46.6 ⫺18.3 ⫺34.1 ⫺0.4 ⫺1.4 ⫺22.6 11.1 ⫺0.4 5.0 7.6 57.3 32.9 6.2 10.3 ⫺24.2 ⫺0.7

IFC

29.2 31.7 0.0 ⫺74.8 3.0 ⫺9.9 4.7 0.0 28.6 ⫺0.1 0.0 5.0 ⫺0.3 17.7 ⫺0.8 ⫺106.3 8.9 0.0 0.0 3.8 ⫺4.8 0.0 0.0 ⫺1.4 42.3 59.3 ⫺5.2 0.0 ⫺4.9 0.0 4.9 ⫺5.8 118.2 ⫺119.3 0.0 0.0 39.1 ⫺3.2 ⫺4.0 48.3 0.0 0.0 ⫺5.4 0.0 0.0 ⫺3.3 0.0 4.6 2.2 0.0 22.1 0.0 0.0

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Table 3: Net flows from multilateral institutions, 2004 (Continued) (US$ millions) World Bank Total

Guyana Haiti Honduras Hungary India Indonesia Iran, Islamic Rep. of Jamaica Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kyrgyz Republic Lao PDR Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Lithuania Macedonia, FYR Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Nepal Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Romania Russian Federation Rwanda Samoa Sao Tomé and Principe Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Seychelles Sierra Leone

57.6 ⫺60.6 223.1 600.2 1,437.1 ⫺1,693.1 ⫺32.3 ⫺20.2 ⫺218.2 88.5 10.0 72.7 53.5 ⫺241.3 ⫺7.5 24.5 ⫺0.7 ⫺84.3 73.5 327.1 57.6 ⫺63.3 9.9 104.7 79.2 ⫺21.8 ⫺751.4 ⫺18.8 80.7 ⫺155.8 280.6 ⫺1.7 40.6 310.2 111.3 ⫺120.0 ⫺136.8 ⫺768.8 ⫺73.5 ⫺80.8 ⫺28.0 465.5 ⫺840.8 ⫺642.7 496.8 ⫺1,371.2 97.2 1.1 7.2 254.6 336.7 ⫺2.3 113.5

IBRD

⫺0.9 0.0 ⫺15.1 ⫺39.5 616.2 ⫺825.6 ⫺34.3 ⫺40.7 ⫺56.7 ⫺27.4 ⫺4.8 0.0 0.0 ⫺8.0 14.2 ⫺2.4 0.0 ⫺92.8 32.2 0.0 ⫺0.5 ⫺69.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺9.0 ⫺1,153.3 ⫺10.4 0.0 ⫺338.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺216.4 0.0 ⫺303.1 ⫺25.4 ⫺13.0 ⫺16.7 45.4 ⫺226.4 ⫺676.5 142.0 ⫺608.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

IMF

Regional development banks

IDA

conc.

non-conc.

conc.

5.8 ⫺40.5 113.4 0.0 422.3 94.8 0.0 0.0 ⫺2.6 0.0 26.7 22.7 29.2 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 13.6 216.7 50.9 0.0 5.2 69.0 36.8 ⫺0.6 0.0 17.2 47.2 ⫺1.4 185.7 0.0 45.3 126.0 63.2 137.2 0.0 676.1 0.0 ⫺3.6 ⫺1.5 0.0 ⫺6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.2 1.7 3.1 158.0 161.9 0.0 30.6

2.7 ⫺4.4 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺14.1 ⫺3.9 ⫺7.8 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0 0.0 ⫺8.1 45.5 ⫺9.5 0.0 0.0 ⫺16.1 ⫺9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺7.2 0.0 ⫺6.7 0.0 9.8 32.7 5.8 0.0 0.0 146.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 ⫺29.4 0.0 0.0 40.2

0.0 ⫺2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺1,004.9 0.0 ⫺8.0 ⫺98.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺19.8 ⫺0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺21.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺460.5 ⫺9.9 ⫺59.9 0.0 ⫺39.6 ⫺472.5 0.0 ⫺170.9 ⫺1,656.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0

42.4 ⫺11.5 114.5 0.0 0.0 34.8 0.0 ⫺5.3 0.0 0.0 16.6 54.4 35.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.8 23.4 0.0 0.4 38.2 10.3 ⫺0.1 0.0 0.0 36.1 3.9 86.0 0.0 ⫺9.1 139.7 27.6 ⫺1.2 0.0 70.8 ⫺8.9 2.7 ⫺15.1 ⫺10.1 ⫺15.7 0.0 44.3 0.0 15.9 0.4 4.5 51.0 0.0 0.0 31.0

non-conc.

Others

⫺6.9 0.0 ⫺21.6 ⫺3.1 423.4 5.1 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.7 ⫺1.9 ⫺8.0 0.0 ⫺2.5 0.0 ⫺1.7 0.0 ⫺0.6 4.1 ⫺2.4 ⫺0.4 ⫺43.1 0.0 0.0 11.1 ⫺9.4 174.6 ⫺8.0 0.0 120.0 ⫺0.8 0.0 0.0 ⫺1.5 12.5 ⫺60.9 0.0 ⫺950.5 ⫺27.9 ⫺3.6 8.4 245.4 ⫺133.9 0.0 62.0 143.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺1.7 75.2 0.0 0.0

14.3 ⫺1.4 12.7 642.8 ⫺24.0 ⫺36.3 2.0 33.7 ⫺38.0 162.4 ⫺7.5 5.1 ⫺2.7 ⫺229.3 ⫺1.8 ⫺0.3 0.0 28.9 37.0 19.5 ⫺6.2 49.5 1.2 14.2 25.4 ⫺2.6 0.0 ⫺8.1 4.6 59.9 21.9 ⫺1.7 ⫺2.0 9.7 2.2 0.0 ⫺135.2 92.0 ⫺6.0 ⫺3.6 ⫺3.1 237.4 21.9 ⫺0.5 374.9 544.9 ⫺1.9 ⫺0.9 ⫺0.4 79.8 89.8 0.4 12.8

IFC

0.1 0.0 ⫺1.8 0.0 ⫺0.8 39.1 0.0 ⫺1.9 ⫺22.9 ⫺47.2 ⫺5.0 2.4 ⫺0.1 4.2 ⫺19.9 0.0 ⫺0.7 ⫺0.1 ⫺4.9 1.1 ⫺0.2 0.0 3.0 ⫺0.6 4.9 0.0 227.3 12.1 0.0 0.0 ⫺5.5 0.0 ⫺3.4 3.8 0.0 21.3 ⫺1.6 ⫺40.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 ⫺13.0 ⫺7.4 34.3 44.5 204.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺3.1 3.8 ⫺2.7 ⫺1.1

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Table 3: Net flows from multilateral institutions, 2004 (Continued) (US$ millions) World Bank Total

IBRD

IMF

Regional development banks

IDA

conc.

non-conc.

conc.

non-conc.

Others

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 ⫺16.2 0.0 ⫺16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺26.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺71.6 ⫺31.4 ⫺4.5 ⫺15.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺103.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺31.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺3,504.1 0.0 0.0 ⫺299.1 151.9 ⫺24.6 0.0 0.0 ⫺1.5 ⫺9.9 0.0 ⫺5.8

IFC

0.0 ⫺0.2 0.0 0.0 75.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺0.8 0.0 19.1 58.6 ⫺3.0 0.0 ⫺0.8 ⫺0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.9 0.0 ⫺2.4 2.6 ⫺0.4 0.0 145.6 0.0 9.2 ⫺1.1

⫺1.6 0.0 0.0 30.5 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺3.1 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺76.7 9.9 0.0 ⫺16.1 72.2 0.0 ⫺5.4 0.0 11.7 ⫺57.2 85.6 0.0 ⫺189.7 ⫺2.0 0.0 ⫺15.2 0.0

⫺185.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.5 3.7 17.0 ⫺1.4 45.2 7.9 ⫺47.2 16.8 6.3 ⫺15.0 7.1 ⫺0.3 ⫺6.1 223.0 285.1 ⫺4.1 ⫺0.6 ⫺5.3 ⫺0.5 ⫺8.0 ⫺0.5 100.1 4.4 11.7 28.3 5.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺14.8 ⫺4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺0.3 0.0 0.0 ⫺3.6 7.5 ⫺0.9 0.0 ⫺2.0 0.0 52.1 0.0 ⫺3.2 41.2 2.1 ⫺3.3 0.0 ⫺96.8 ⫺14.3 ⫺0.1 ⫺3.5 ⫺7.6

Slovak Republic ⫺112.2 Solomon Islands 0.2 Somalia 0.0 South Africa 22.7 Sri Lanka 37.2 St. Kitts and Nevis 5.0 St. Lucia 18.9 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.2 Sudan 8.9 Swaziland 25.1 Syrian Arab Republic ⫺53.1 Tajikistan 107.7 Tanzania 372.2 Thailand ⫺1,705.6 Togo 0.0 Tonga 0.1 Trinidad and Tobago ⫺39.5 Tunisia 204.5 Turkey ⫺2,253.4 Turkmenistan ⫺8.2 Uganda 143.5 Ukraine ⫺384.3 Uruguay 157.6 Uzbekistan 61.3 Vanuatu ⫺1.2 Venezuela, R.B. de ⫺377.8 Vietnam 496.3 Yemen, Rep. of 36.5 Zambia 151.8 Zimbabwe ⫺25.7

74.4 0.0 0.0 7.0 ⫺2.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 8.8 ⫺4.5 0.0 ⫺2.9 ⫺1,615.0 0.0 0.0 ⫺15.2 ⫺88.7 919.5 1.3 0.0 ⫺132.9 63.6 4.5 0.0 ⫺191.4 0.0 0.0 ⫺3.3 ⫺1.7

0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 29.9 0.0 1.7 1.2 ⫺1.8 ⫺0.3 ⫺1.5 54.6 329.9 ⫺3.4 0.0 1.2 0.0 ⫺2.1 ⫺5.9 0.0 120.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 ⫺0.3 0.0 435.7 66.2 140.7 0.0

⫺10,175.6

⫺4,794.5

6,133.9

72.1

⫺14,763.1

1,543.4

⫺2,281.4

3,415.7

498.3

⫺3,400.3 ⫺2,098.5 ⫺7,786.6 ⫺1,586.9 1,458.8 3,237.8

⫺2,445.8 ⫺323.6 ⫺1,314.4 ⫺709.2 303.8 ⫺305.4

525.6 732.8 323.6 103.5 1,661.6 2,786.7

⫺97.0 ⫺32.6 35.4 ⫺31.4 295.7 ⫺98.0

⫺1,538.8 ⫺5,858.5 ⫺6,291.7 ⫺479.6 ⫺564.0 ⫺30.5

287.9 120.5 202.0 21.8 122.7 788.4

⫺47.3 353.2 ⫺1,532.8 ⫺487.0 ⫺438.1 ⫺129.5

⫺172.8 2,490.5 702.0 11.9 113.9 270.3

87.9 419.3 89.2 ⫺16.9 ⫺37.0 ⫺44.2

5,696.5 ⫺15,872.2

⫺11.8 ⫺4,782.7

5,195.7 938.1

117.5 ⫺45.4

⫺648.3 ⫺14,114.9

1,309.1 234.3

⫺594.7 ⫺1,686.7

382.2 3,033.6

⫺53.2 551.5

All developing countries East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Low income Middle income

Note: Loans from major regional developments banks, the IMF, and the World Bank are classified as concessional according to each institution’s classification. Otherwise, concessionality of flows is as defined by DAC. IFC data are for loans to the private sector without government guarantees. Data include only debt flows.

xxxviii

Regional and income group aggregate tables

1

ALL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

929,173 757,088 672,213 84,876 38,166 133,919 12,063 7,538 4,526

1,336,673 1,098,884 1,038,888 59,996 34,652 203,138 52,724 19,636 33,088

1,970,198 1,564,489 1,344,977 219,513 61,101 344,608 44,182 26,063 18,119

2,283,950 1,909,082 1,363,872 545,210 58,448 316,420 31,578 21,518 10,060

2,359,026 1,925,638 1,374,254 551,384 95,809 337,579 35,769 18,553 17,215

2,581,793 2,054,118 1,451,036 603,082 106,865 420,810 46,381 20,531 25,850

2,755,725 2,164,919 1,493,438 671,482 96,044 494,762 50,304 20,895 29,409

2,800,396 2,194,458 1,433,677 760,781 49,253 556,685 .. .. ..

21,252 9,963 11,289

59,730 27,252 32,479

106,364 59,811 46,552

62,981 46,401 16,581

64,136 40,722 23,414

82,134 43,534 38,601

90,783 43,135 47,647

.. .. ..

91,193 87,256 3,937 54,624 50,764 3,859 38,205 1,636 65,821 51,270 2,843 11,707 -27,615 120,444 102,035 6,703 11,707

126,964 118,722 8,242 83,983 75,808 8,175 56,184 13,204 63,959 51,364 2,500 10,094 -7,775 147,942 127,173 10,675 10,094

224,489 196,575 27,914 131,566 120,475 11,091 152,390 59,467 90,930 72,532 2,791 15,607 61,460 222,496 193,007 13,882 15,607

262,131 252,017 10,114 256,337 235,571 20,766 -957 -6,750 120,647 100,684 2,881 17,082 -121,604 376,984 336,255 23,647 17,082

283,065 248,637 34,428 276,610 256,198 20,413 10,700 4,247 96,272 83,600 2,971 9,701 -85,571 372,882 339,798 23,383 9,701

334,987 305,366 29,621 317,061 289,818 27,243 72,807 54,880 103,303 88,986 2,424 11,893 -30,493 420,364 378,804 29,667 11,893

394,493 387,547 6,946 345,439 323,801 21,637 119,082 70,028 104,815 86,908 3,463 14,444 14,267 450,254 410,710 25,100 14,444

444,238 440,256 3,982 393,382 348,338 45,044 120,140 69,284 117,450 97,630 2,497 17,323 1,496 510,832 445,968 47,541 17,323

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

61,803 36,491 11,828 46 13,438 7,619

95,709 42,913 21,667 3,390 27,738 13,789

227,406 76,100 105,124 14,595 31,588 19,421

228,065 16,445 168,836 14,085 28,698 15,263

190,976 -7,560 160,290 5,776 32,470 18,820

246,055 15,548 161,606 25,199 43,701 20,564

362,964 63,745 211,385 37,558 50,275 20,711

443,418 91,918 237,500 61,400 52,600 24,800

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-1,222 51,270 11,755

27,480 51,364 16,864

116,187 72,532 38,687

50,395 100,684 76,986

28,117 83,600 79,259

53,589 88,986 103,481

159,138 86,908 116,917

214,788 97,630 131,000

6,102,831 2,018,568 112,516 1,980,698 974,562

6,901,864 2,429,917 140,473 2,362,312 1,277,716

8,119,980 3,110,168 160,350 2,983,034 1,684,393

.. .. .. .. ..

116.9 38.7 18.5 4.8 1.6 41.3 5.9 14.3 17.2 15.2

106.3 37.4 17.3 4.3 1.5 49.5 6.5 16.3 17.7 14.8

88.6 33.9 14.5 3.4 1.3 61.1 6.8 18.0 17.3 14.3

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 19.9 16.5 13.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

2,786,588 500,464 19,588 539,920 124,750

3,697,946 747,281 31,037 779,369 185,710

185.7 33.3 24.1 13.2 2.4 13.4 2.8 14.4 16.1 11.0

178.9 36.1 19.8 8.6 1.7 13.9 2.9 15.2 20.6 15.2

4,997,625 1,294,759 57,148 1,411,080 488,251

5,803,779 1,877,922 84,079 1,866,293 708,354

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

152.2 39.4 17.2 7.0 1.8 24.8 4.2 17.5 19.4 14.6

2

121.6 39.4 20.1 6.4 2.1 31.0 4.6 13.9 16.6 14.6

ALL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

757,088 672,213 289,976 102,440 36,910 187,536 112,455 382,237 28,717 261,634 84,876 0 84,876

1,098,884 1,038,888 551,037 203,358 68,483 347,679 206,941 487,850 104,277 248,897 59,996 347 59,649

46,612 24,160 668,794 88,295

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1,564,489 1,344,977 805,518 287,109 106,661 518,410 274,589 539,458 246,190 160,097 219,513 51,057 168,456

1,909,082 1,363,872 781,080 333,496 129,321 447,584 250,614 582,792 375,919 136,217 545,210 93,967 451,244

1,925,638 1,374,254 779,847 359,013 147,815 420,834 257,960 594,407 400,514 133,137 551,384 95,116 456,268

2,054,118 1,451,036 819,430 381,429 166,721 438,001 290,682 631,606 442,351 133,355 603,082 127,778 475,304

2,164,919 1,493,438 828,054 393,296 181,327 434,758 295,218 665,383 477,472 135,072 671,482 137,127 534,354

2,194,458 1,433,677 771,541 381,865 178,549 389,676 283,076 662,136 474,923 143,379 760,781 167,189 593,592

92,314 45,005 1,035,556 63,328

111,691 71,549 1,341,015 223,475

112,145 86,843 1,356,344 552,738

111,303 100,613 1,366,908 558,730

109,146 113,973 1,442,773 611,345

106,125 124,327 1,484,312 680,607

100,039 121,218 .. ..

87,256 81,074 33,424 16,538 4,402 16,885 10,044 47,650 5,084 23,999 6,182 0 6,182

118,722 101,450 49,408 27,310 6,825 22,098 13,344 52,042 5,176 16,156 17,271 291 16,980

196,575 138,284 66,454 32,371 8,837 34,083 14,357 71,830 25,448 26,142 58,291 14,099 44,192

252,017 142,183 54,150 35,145 8,243 19,005 13,172 88,033 59,161 20,184 109,833 11,757 98,076

248,637 113,898 46,280 32,250 9,912 14,030 8,949 67,618 40,350 22,428 134,739 11,471 123,268

305,366 132,212 49,800 37,861 10,453 11,939 9,620 82,412 53,105 24,056 173,154 22,483 150,671

387,547 150,922 46,159 33,856 12,042 12,303 10,194 104,763 66,963 33,916 236,624 37,251 199,373

440,256 176,382 47,854 31,443 10,764 16,411 13,560 128,528 78,767 45,261 263,875 46,104 217,771

7,915 2,875

13,438 4,345

13,094 5,476

13,430 5,219

10,288 6,768

11,521 6,528

10,464 7,679

7,817 6,015

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

50,764 42,840 11,795 4,230 362 7,565 2,476 31,045 1,420 17,194 7,924 0 7,924

75,808 68,526 23,043 11,896 898 11,147 4,821 45,483 4,386 22,691 7,282 0 7,282

120,475 92,400 44,128 20,755 1,565 23,373 8,848 48,272 12,095 17,824 28,075 4,042 24,034

235,571 122,211 49,184 23,238 2,459 25,946 12,563 73,027 35,322 25,204 113,360 15,060 98,300

256,198 123,768 55,061 30,891 2,510 24,169 10,615 68,707 28,467 28,608 132,430 12,516 119,913

289,818 145,753 64,475 36,468 2,818 28,007 13,399 81,278 38,955 31,170 144,065 10,263 133,802

323,801 139,303 60,194 31,438 3,278 28,756 14,909 79,109 36,647 34,001 184,499 24,571 159,928

348,338 171,840 78,211 29,195 3,661 49,016 15,973 93,629 47,476 34,917 176,498 15,739 160,760

2,814 117

7,939 248

11,673 542

9,827 949

16,022 1,243

17,628 1,322

15,258 1,546

11,645 1,537

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

51,270 43,050 10,513 4,842 356 5,670 1,926 32,537 1,623 25,347 8,221 0 8,221

51,364 46,789 18,359 10,504 621 7,856 3,324 28,429 4,376 17,440 4,576 3 4,573

72,532 61,093 29,191 13,719 1,013 15,472 6,136 31,901 16,431 8,453 11,439 3,172 8,268

100,684 67,623 27,077 15,625 1,215 11,453 5,247 40,546 26,857 9,908 33,060 8,042 25,019

83,600 57,697 24,136 13,698 1,341 10,438 4,805 33,561 23,097 8,090 25,903 6,911 18,993

88,986 61,181 23,822 12,228 1,411 11,594 5,782 37,359 26,439 8,478 27,805 7,841 19,964

86,908 59,435 22,711 11,079 1,717 11,631 6,336 36,724 27,369 7,279 27,473 8,986 18,488

97,630 66,359 24,873 11,110 1,758 13,762 7,382 41,486 30,539 8,801 31,271 11,339 19,932

3,262 188

6,868 301

7,969 504

7,682 578

6,392 695

5,134 698

4,136 896

3,806 836

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3

ALL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

15.8 10.7 1.0 0.4 62.7

18.5 10.9 1.2 0.5 60.3

19.7 10.4 1.3 0.5 60.0

.. .. .. .. ..

88,304 79,328 31,369 60,620 17,782 51,436 61,849 6,900 23,193 2,319 27,292 10,276 15,365 20,724 9,082 2,180 5,825 6,991 17,050 8,136 25,112 4,451 8,373 3,674 946 2,441 5,798 5,223 13,968 3,351 893 4,577 2,281 11,173 3,139 1,548 1,221 2,942 2,795 212 336 12,628 2,247 934 4,971 2 2,890 962 1,949 2,207 1,329 26,145 4,220 41,630 6,183 0 4,359 162 17,016 4,272 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 102,747 98,872 179,470 -61,785 78,344 38,205 56,184 152,390 -957 10,700 38,485 46,595 1,684 -53,188 71,816 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

11,300 3,491 6,084 5,463 621 1,148 1,027 121 1,941 683 13,895 0

8,139 854 4,390 4,300 90 1,378 991 387 4,701 1,520 5,676 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

222,767 72,807 89,435

173,932 119,082 38,857

.. 120,140 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 8.2 2.4 1.6 58.2

.. 10.7 2.4 2.0 43.6

.. 12.9 1.5 1.1 47.4

.. 11.6 1.0 0.4 62.0

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

7.6 15.7 5.3 14.9

7.0 17.0 5.8 20.4

6.1 14.0 4.6 21.4

7.0 13.8 7.2 15.2

5.1 15.5 6.5 29.2

4.7 13.4 7.1 28.2

4.4 14.8 7.5 31.6

.. .. .. ..

6.0 22.2 5.7 27.2

5.5 22.4 6.6 33.2

5.8 19.2 5.3 28.9

4.8 20.1 5.2 33.7

3.1 22.7 6.0 46.8

2.9 20.1 5.3 46.2

2.4 23.4 5.4 53.2

.. .. .. ..

8.8 8.5 6.6 8.1 6.7 10.4 11.4 7.8 10.5 9.6 4.9 4.9 3.8 8.2 7.0 5.1 7.0 12.5 5.7 14.7 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

5.6 9.9 8.0 18.4

5.5 10.2 8.5 20.3

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

500.0 450.0 400.0

2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

-100.0

0.0

100.0

200.0

Private non-debt flows

300.0

400.0

Private debt flows

4

-40.0

-20.0

Multilateral

0.0

20.0 Bilateral

40.0

60.0 Grants

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

124,352 93,592 79,849 13,743 2,970 27,790 68 3 65

234,078 194,619 172,984 21,635 2,085 37,374 1,885 1,135 751

455,618 345,442 255,392 90,050 1,337 108,839 2,952 2,374 577

498,029 418,940 271,503 147,438 16,452 62,637 5,334 657 4,677

515,857 387,231 266,147 121,084 11,618 117,009 7,316 856 6,459

541,471 388,696 266,437 122,259 12,131 140,644 8,447 979 7,468

588,888 403,085 269,630 133,455 10,964 174,839 8,461 987 7,474

633,749 417,859 271,224 146,634 8,708 207,182 .. .. ..

838 65 774

2,965 1,790 1,175

10,943 10,215 727

7,415 4,183 3,231

7,962 4,707 3,255

14,822 5,137 9,685

15,903 5,252 10,651

.. .. ..

19,623 18,954 670 11,583 10,564 1,020 9,300 1,259 8,559 6,143 187 2,229 741 20,142 16,707 1,206 2,229

29,503 29,445 58 18,662 17,377 1,286 18,636 7,795 12,509 10,154 245 2,110 6,127 31,172 27,531 1,531 2,110

59,109 58,907 203 32,257 31,866 390 54,074 27,221 20,625 15,541 69 5,015 33,449 52,882 47,407 459 5,015

41,816 40,323 1,493 47,919 47,652 267 -15,954 -9,850 25,215 20,407 793 4,015 -41,168 73,134 68,059 1,060 4,015

48,714 47,202 1,513 69,152 64,914 4,237 -10,310 10,127 18,466 14,508 360 3,598 -28,776 87,618 79,422 4,597 3,598

56,574 54,620 1,954 73,197 70,708 2,489 1,903 18,526 18,917 14,609 203 4,105 -17,014 92,114 85,317 2,692 4,105

62,382 62,382 0 58,771 57,135 1,636 37,792 34,181 20,042 15,153 285 4,603 17,750 78,813 72,288 1,921 4,603

74,837 74,837 0 60,951 59,324 1,626 43,899 30,013 21,103 15,251 302 5,551 22,860 82,054 74,575 1,928 5,551

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

12,510 8,390 2,948 43 1,129 1,173

24,914 12,068 10,325 440 2,081 2,400

82,751 27,041 49,013 3,616 3,081 3,273

46,068 -7,329 44,292 6,608 2,498 2,905

45,759 -17,713 57,245 4,013 2,214 2,874

58,607 -16,088 59,751 12,446 2,499 3,459

90,141 5,246 64,563 17,575 2,757 3,647

110,013 15,513 65,300 26,500 2,700 4,200

2,672 6,143 3,694

9,601 10,154 5,159

51,323 15,541 15,885

-5,952 20,407 31,612

2,423 14,508 28,829

15,194 14,609 28,804

50,189 15,153 24,800

67,762 15,251 27,000

1,993,053 718,153 27,160 669,241 426,666

2,256,880 909,826 35,870 854,512 566,210

2,622,131 1,154,112 41,243 1,078,176 803,130

.. .. .. .. ..

71.8 25.9 12.2 2.6 0.9 82.7 7.7 22.7 21.2 12.9

59.5 24.0 10.1 2.1 0.8 104.6 8.0 26.0 22.3 12.2

51.0 22.5 6.8 1.7 0.8 136.4 8.9 29.7 22.1 11.0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 32.7 20.4 10.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

503,151 91,743 2,129 110,654 33,450

654,813 178,480 3,258 184,432 71,348

135.5 24.7 22.0 9.3 1.7 26.9 3.6 22.3 16.5 12.5

131.2 35.7 17.5 7.0 1.9 30.5 4.6 16.0 29.4 14.9

1,284,227 420,976 9,694 455,882 167,801

1,678,441 644,257 16,675 598,836 284,237

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

108.2 35.5 12.6 4.9 1.6 36.8 4.4 23.9 21.6 11.8

5

77.3 29.7 11.4 3.9 1.5 57.1 5.7 12.6 20.9 13.2

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

93,592 79,849 39,522 15,485 2,934 24,037 17,568 40,328 8,346 17,965 13,743 0 13,743

194,619 172,984 104,716 34,975 7,347 69,742 61,559 68,268 11,814 35,213 21,635 160 21,476

9,625 2,081 79,801 13,791

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

345,442 255,392 159,555 53,614 13,449 105,941 84,918 95,837 23,690 39,430 90,050 15,574 74,476

418,940 271,503 171,657 65,798 17,433 105,859 86,679 99,846 35,943 32,603 147,438 22,077 125,361

387,231 266,147 172,033 66,291 19,716 105,742 89,432 94,115 38,247 27,138 121,084 19,493 101,591

388,696 266,437 177,975 66,133 22,615 111,842 98,225 88,462 42,290 21,322 122,259 18,425 103,834

403,085 269,630 182,640 64,955 24,347 117,686 105,991 86,989 46,524 17,505 133,455 20,432 113,023

417,859 271,224 181,379 63,529 23,697 117,850 105,659 89,845 54,045 18,258 146,634 24,692 121,942

20,176 5,130 172,517 22,102

27,912 9,692 254,111 91,331

30,476 12,520 271,218 147,723

28,656 14,108 265,512 121,719

26,968 16,119 265,136 123,560

24,686 17,355 268,143 134,942

23,078 16,538 .. ..

18,954 16,308 4,907 2,603 429 2,304 1,669 11,401 3,445 3,199 2,646 0 2,646

29,445 19,604 10,106 4,711 1,030 5,396 4,592 9,498 852 4,090 9,841 120 9,721

58,907 38,010 17,659 6,135 1,336 11,524 6,039 20,351 4,449 8,713 20,897 5,731 15,166

40,323 26,877 16,011 6,942 1,173 9,069 7,477 10,865 4,539 2,539 13,446 1,106 12,341

47,202 20,679 10,029 5,258 1,082 4,771 3,835 10,650 7,049 1,655 26,523 986 25,536

54,620 19,315 9,493 4,884 1,437 4,609 3,840 9,822 5,586 3,533 35,305 1,916 33,389

62,382 25,198 9,246 4,157 1,252 5,089 4,416 15,953 11,467 4,049 37,183 4,859 32,325

74,837 29,657 10,004 3,669 1,018 6,335 5,652 19,652 12,141 6,755 45,180 6,397 38,783

1,720 326

2,532 604

3,168 934

3,245 700

2,491 651

2,132 944

1,861 774

1,208 462

10,564 8,246 1,494 520 24 974 403 6,753 179 4,204 2,317 0 2,317

17,377 14,808 4,266 2,032 77 2,234 1,071 10,542 1,925 5,395 2,569 0 2,569

31,866 21,662 8,353 3,094 127 5,259 3,124 13,309 1,854 5,317 10,204 120 10,084

47,652 23,439 10,274 4,063 448 6,212 4,804 13,164 1,211 7,159 24,213 5,168 19,045

64,914 29,684 15,235 7,670 271 7,564 3,629 14,449 4,929 5,301 35,231 3,006 32,225

70,708 31,132 16,367 7,610 313 8,757 4,936 14,766 1,993 8,947 39,576 2,982 36,594

57,135 26,067 13,084 6,009 414 7,075 5,337 12,983 4,092 6,454 31,068 2,554 28,513

59,324 25,541 10,318 4,869 444 5,450 4,118 15,223 4,063 5,785 33,783 2,138 31,646

393 8

1,462 19

2,152 50

2,006 107

4,702 162

4,334 199

4,307 248

2,640 261

6,143 5,017 1,768 939 27 829 401 3,249 553 1,655 1,127 0 1,127

10,154 8,864 3,672 2,146 63 1,526 994 5,192 923 2,795 1,290 2 1,289

15,541 12,044 6,281 3,051 125 3,230 2,059 5,763 1,238 2,442 3,497 503 2,994

20,407 12,867 7,266 3,834 147 3,432 2,213 5,601 2,300 1,895 7,540 1,942 5,598

14,508 9,985 5,452 3,272 148 2,180 1,551 4,533 2,447 1,094 4,523 1,381 3,142

14,609 9,991 5,320 2,570 164 2,750 2,071 4,671 2,731 721 4,617 1,363 3,255

15,153 10,743 5,874 2,450 194 3,424 2,813 4,869 3,006 838 4,410 1,269 3,141

15,251 9,707 4,893 2,068 217 2,824 2,367 4,814 2,946 697 5,544 1,620 3,924

681 16

1,521 34

1,999 69

2,146 87

1,875 94

1,461 104

1,204 130

950 120

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6

EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

6.1 26.7 0.5 0.2 57.3

7.3 27.9 0.5 0.2 56.0

8.7 28.2 0.7 0.3 54.4

.. .. .. .. ..

785 1,478 314 2,468 4,281 230 0 0 0 1,002 284 848 170 2,268 2,441 109 172 156 1,541 1,836 176 676 14 727 604 270 186 104 1 675 180 107 104 1 551 90 80 0 0 124 6 0 44 5 1 0 0 7 1,631 0 0 1,803 0 8,759 0 0 721 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 16,651 30,302 71,918 -40,779 -1,005 9,300 18,636 54,074 -15,954 -10,310 7,955 10,348 -1,773 -13,901 13,126 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

3,086 0 2,515 1,949 566 408 342 66 2 0 12,019 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

25,614 1,903 16,106

47,417 37,792 5,434

.. 43,899 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 31.6 1.4 1.1 35.8

.. 29.1 1.0 0.9 23.6

.. 28.2 0.4 0.5 36.7

.. 28.2 0.5 0.2 55.9

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

7.6 15.9 7.5 14.7

6.5 19.6 5.4 24.3

5.9 15.8 5.0 23.8

5.7 16.2 5.2 25.3

5.0 15.7 6.9 30.3

4.1 13.1 5.9 30.8

4.3 14.2 7.0 32.9

.. .. .. ..

6.5 23.7 6.9 26.4

4.9 24.6 7.1 38.7

5.3 21.9 5.6 32.6

3.8 27.1 6.4 46.9

2.7 25.7 6.6 52.8

2.0 23.9 6.3 56.4

2.2 25.5 6.9 58.2

.. .. .. ..

8.2 8.3 6.4 6.9 6.3 11.7 13.9 9.6 9.8 9.8 7.8 3.5 4.4 4.5 7.1 8.3 8.1 14.9 12.5 16.8 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

5.0 7.9 5.7 18.3

5.4 8.4 7.0 19.8

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

120.0 2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

Private non-debt flows

60.0

80.0

100.0

Private debt flows

7

-6.0

-4.0

Multilateral

-2.0

0.0

2.0

Bilateral

4.0

6.0

8.0

Grants

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

141,794 115,009 106,671 8,338 5,065 21,721 2,073 627 1,446

217,224 176,378 171,457 4,921 1,305 39,541 13,041 6,573 6,468

348,705 287,795 269,630 18,165 16,942 43,967 8,053 2,133 5,920

511,010 402,408 282,510 119,898 21,950 86,651 8,734 7,077 1,657

561,371 439,991 275,241 164,750 34,245 87,136 5,918 4,502 1,416

680,522 512,251 300,956 211,295 35,315 132,956 5,494 3,460 2,034

794,943 603,687 321,739 281,947 30,735 160,521 4,035 3,152 883

870,104 656,252 308,145 348,107 19,644 194,209 .. .. ..

3,017 1,506 1,511

6,324 4,584 1,740

29,298 8,113 21,185

14,634 11,021 3,613

8,767 5,480 3,287

8,235 4,450 3,784

4,558 2,319 2,239

.. .. ..

17,999 17,740 259 13,578 12,735 844 5,604 1,183 10,184 7,852 534 1,798 -4,580 23,762 20,587 1,377 1,798

29,137 28,389 747 19,741 19,009 732 1,699 -7,697 12,146 9,548 128 2,470 -10,447 31,886 28,557 860 2,470

37,291 29,136 8,155 22,731 19,683 3,047 23,571 9,011 14,520 12,077 711 1,732 9,051 37,251 31,761 3,758 1,732

64,886 60,517 4,369 53,502 48,423 5,079 19,954 8,571 23,688 18,479 1,080 4,129 -3,733 77,190 66,902 6,159 4,129

99,660 86,179 13,481 75,911 67,066 8,845 27,557 3,808 23,535 19,989 1,164 2,382 4,021 99,447 87,055 10,009 2,382

115,876 113,387 2,489 90,474 85,991 4,483 57,886 32,484 26,204 22,152 803 3,248 31,686 116,677 108,143 5,286 3,248

178,338 176,695 1,642 124,195 116,662 7,533 83,166 29,024 30,085 24,188 1,201 4,696 53,081 154,280 140,850 8,735 4,696

196,986 194,177 2,809 146,508 134,041 12,467 82,916 32,438 34,482 27,775 615 6,093 47,411 180,991 161,816 13,082 6,093

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

5,376 5,005 129 0 242 121

11,266 9,380 777 89 1,020 421

37,674 9,453 17,357 1,638 9,226 4,673

52,170 12,094 30,229 1,262 8,586 3,043

62,457 19,113 34,928 -125 8,542 4,849

72,447 27,396 35,932 493 8,626 4,391

137,009 60,033 62,211 4,450 10,314 4,413

147,783 60,136 75,647 2,300 9,700 5,100

-2,575 7,852 98

1,500 9,548 218

23,647 12,077 1,950

26,067 18,479 7,625

28,724 19,989 13,744

21,838 22,152 28,457

75,500 24,188 37,321

76,008 27,775 44,000

1,109,110 483,150 13,276 491,299 185,759

1,358,822 614,889 15,125 633,495 249,275

1,711,218 787,692 19,431 798,101 328,929

.. .. .. .. ..

116.2 50.6 20.6 4.9 2.1 33.1 4.5 15.5 5.1 7.4

110.7 50.1 19.0 4.3 1.9 36.6 4.7 19.5 4.7 6.7

100.9 46.5 19.6 3.8 1.8 41.4 4.9 20.2 4.3 6.2

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 22.3 3.6 5.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

120,410 58,625 1,714 61,182 7,704

1,092,845 71,139 3,246 80,064 14,859

241.9 117.8 40.5 17.4 8.5 5.4 1.5 15.3 10.3 7.5

305.4 19.9 44.8 17.1 1.1 6.8 2.2 18.2 5.8 7.6

1,024,539 316,455 8,120 328,839 89,996

932,135 423,837 13,383 417,119 128,235

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

110.2 34.0 11.8 4.6 1.4 25.8 3.3 12.6 6.9 7.5

8

120.6 54.8 18.2 5.6 2.5 25.1 3.7 17.0 4.9 6.9

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

115,009 106,671 43,762 10,589 310 33,173 14,361 62,909 641 44,282 8,338 0 8,338

176,378 171,457 63,676 16,604 920 47,072 11,730 107,782 11,889 65,890 4,921 16 4,905

7,706 177 106,091 8,919

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

287,795 269,630 139,094 26,189 1,756 112,905 22,330 130,537 46,776 46,666 18,165 188 17,977

402,408 282,510 144,813 35,310 3,696 109,503 21,302 137,696 93,510 32,426 119,898 7,698 112,200

439,991 275,241 131,764 41,544 4,929 90,221 23,658 143,477 99,794 34,968 164,750 11,231 153,519

512,251 300,956 134,508 45,259 6,179 89,249 25,475 166,448 118,528 39,992 211,295 18,424 192,871

603,687 321,739 137,765 48,912 7,589 88,853 26,320 183,974 133,903 42,037 281,947 31,184 250,763

656,252 308,145 111,401 47,298 7,233 64,103 23,894 196,744 146,225 44,302 348,107 49,900 298,207

10,271 157 170,441 5,937

16,057 669 267,753 20,042

22,788 2,667 280,246 122,162

26,484 3,730 272,626 167,365

26,888 4,589 297,951 214,299

27,422 5,555 317,549 286,138

26,314 5,022 .. ..

17,740 17,144 4,104 2,257 25 1,847 922 13,040 495 9,287 596 0 596

28,389 26,628 6,349 2,298 14 4,052 940 20,279 1,959 4,084 1,761 0 1,761

29,136 22,452 6,762 4,474 413 2,288 1,218 15,690 5,791 5,451 6,684 36 6,648

60,517 26,072 8,031 5,011 471 3,021 1,354 18,041 10,709 6,308 34,445 1,513 32,932

86,179 20,605 6,139 4,157 777 1,982 961 14,465 8,143 5,662 65,575 3,993 61,582

113,387 27,747 5,730 4,114 788 1,616 1,030 22,017 15,402 5,502 85,640 8,028 77,612

176,695 37,555 8,555 6,917 1,124 1,637 995 29,001 21,718 6,957 139,140 16,065 123,075

194,177 47,459 7,554 5,871 584 1,683 1,297 39,905 31,683 7,679 146,718 19,796 126,922

1,141 0

1,218 0

2,696 370

3,102 351

2,171 603

1,445 494

2,978 745

2,742 296

12,735 11,926 2,052 583 31 1,469 343 9,874 22 7,046 809 0 809

19,009 17,512 3,143 1,455 23 1,688 434 14,368 66 8,751 1,497 0 1,497

19,683 16,786 5,014 3,033 66 1,981 524 11,771 3,764 4,130 2,898 0 2,898

48,423 20,209 7,365 2,834 33 4,531 2,273 12,844 5,966 4,237 28,214 958 27,256

67,066 21,684 8,101 2,924 57 5,177 1,410 13,582 7,424 3,961 45,383 845 44,538

85,991 30,315 10,549 3,984 43 6,566 1,715 19,766 11,764 5,319 55,676 1,301 54,375

116,662 31,820 13,160 5,202 47 7,958 2,340 18,660 10,823 5,790 84,842 1,222 83,621

134,041 51,559 28,762 4,888 53 23,873 2,147 22,797 15,596 4,876 82,482 1,279 81,203

462 4

1,133 4

1,191 6

1,357 6

1,804 6

2,678 8

3,302 13

3,014 22

7,852 7,124 2,209 667 5 1,542 493 4,915 10 3,842 728 0 728

9,548 9,107 2,228 1,199 39 1,029 246 6,878 737 4,675 441 1 440

12,077 11,363 4,773 1,535 49 3,238 757 6,591 3,301 1,889 714 13 701

18,479 12,601 4,009 1,910 44 2,099 633 8,592 5,967 1,982 5,878 570 5,308

19,989 13,954 4,851 1,594 50 3,257 610 9,104 6,940 1,687 6,034 827 5,208

22,152 14,827 5,171 1,553 60 3,618 654 9,655 7,499 1,752 7,326 1,884 5,442

24,188 15,001 4,731 1,493 80 3,238 678 10,270 8,239 1,747 9,187 1,390 7,796

27,775 16,408 4,091 1,620 97 2,471 522 12,317 9,400 2,605 11,367 3,103 8,264

557 1

809 1

938 3

1,297 19

1,097 23

986 30

865 42

889 38

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

9

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

31.4 5.1 0.8 0.3 55.9

34.8 4.8 0.7 0.3 53.7

37.4 4.2 0.9 0.4 52.6

.. .. .. .. ..

10,228 3,559 11,111 29,129 6,951 0 0 225 19,307 976 3,237 1,366 7,458 3,623 3,729 202 746 4,026 2,945 3,572 3,035 620 3,432 679 158 588 2,163 1,381 4,388 768 13 1,998 777 2,220 765 575 165 604 2,168 3 0 232 3 15 849 0 61 0 0 85 0 1,779 146 12,545 294 0 882 30 943 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 34,228 19,679 27,523 8,140 53,321 5,604 1,699 23,571 19,954 27,557 6,765 10,086 6,610 -10,042 18,562 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

3,286 4 2,915 2,909 6 357 357 0 7 81 46 0

3,354 736 1,998 1,996 2 366 17 349 34 570 1,497 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

119,151 57,886 24,588

114,421 83,166 10,034

.. 82,916 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.7 2.3 4.9 48.0

.. 7.6 1.8 6.5 32.4

.. 9.7 1.0 2.1 43.9

.. 6.2 0.6 0.3 58.4

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

8.2 10.0 4.3 7.4

8.4 11.9 6.1 8.7

6.3 12.0 4.9 18.7

7.4 11.7 6.6 11.9

5.3 11.3 5.6 24.5

4.6 10.7 5.5 26.3

4.5 10.9 7.5 28.4

.. .. .. ..

6.6 12.1 4.3 13.4

7.8 13.7 5.9 12.4

5.7 16.7 5.2 25.8

5.9 17.6 5.5 26.4

3.0 18.2 5.7 43.6

4.2 16.9 3.7 34.7

3.1 18.1 6.3 45.8

.. .. .. ..

8.6 8.6 6.7 8.0 6.5 9.3 11.1 8.7 9.2 7.6 4.3 6.2 4.6 7.0 5.6 5.5 7.2 13.6 5.9 14.4 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

4.8 7.9 6.3 22.6

4.8 9.1 7.8 24.0

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

Private non-debt flows

80.0

100.0

Private debt flows

10

-30.0

-20.0

Multilateral

-10.0

0.0 Bilateral

10.0

20.0 Grants

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

387,797 328,821 274,229 54,592 14,605 44,370 2,659 731 1,929

444,629 352,716 327,698 25,018 18,298 73,615 25,544 3,856 21,688

611,781 461,483 374,089 87,394 26,719 123,579 10,311 3,561 6,750

758,673 642,125 400,669 241,455 8,846 107,702 1,681 1,155 526

749,989 632,483 406,687 225,796 38,302 79,204 6,744 852 5,892

785,930 649,555 426,330 223,225 47,758 88,617 13,944 1,091 12,854

778,970 639,331 433,342 205,989 43,307 96,333 18,764 1,203 17,561

723,688 620,716 414,465 206,251 11,964 91,009 .. .. ..

6,817 1,195 5,622

24,401 7,370 17,031

16,001 6,069 9,932

3,762 1,902 1,859

9,978 1,443 8,536

18,878 2,266 16,611

30,615 3,288 27,327

.. .. ..

23,068 21,177 1,892 13,230 12,814 416 4,543 -5,296 34,741 28,498 1,091 5,153 -30,199 47,971 41,312 1,507 5,153

32,567 27,731 4,836 22,124 18,469 3,655 18,096 7,653 21,973 18,128 1,459 2,386 -3,877 44,096 36,597 5,114 2,386

89,877 74,105 15,772 43,475 40,581 2,894 60,994 14,592 36,137 28,604 1,107 6,426 24,857 79,612 69,185 4,001 6,426

121,405 117,895 3,510 124,524 110,287 14,237 -4,674 -1,556 55,376 48,031 777 6,568 -60,050 179,899 158,317 15,014 6,568

98,669 81,026 17,644 97,232 91,467 5,765 -8,650 -10,001 39,982 36,317 1,195 2,471 -48,546 137,214 127,784 6,960 2,471

120,035 95,907 24,129 112,007 93,448 18,559 10,241 2,213 41,200 36,487 1,323 3,390 -30,959 153,207 129,935 19,882 3,390

101,924 97,696 4,228 116,240 105,756 10,484 -11,421 2,895 40,483 34,870 1,881 3,732 -51,905 156,724 140,626 12,365 3,732

116,621 116,004 617 134,576 105,168 29,408 -15,917 2,037 42,963 37,744 1,502 3,718 -58,407 177,539 142,911 30,910 3,718

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

15,915 8,362 6,023 0 1,530 1,075

22,290 9,262 8,285 2,464 2,279 1,954

72,091 33,524 30,510 4,770 3,287 2,699

88,833 7,608 79,319 -566 2,471 2,934

41,998 -10,441 48,186 1,444 2,810 3,109

50,000 2,459 41,116 3,382 3,043 3,809

57,103 -8,060 60,843 -606 4,926 3,977

87,937 10,837 61,400 12,500 3,200 4,400

-17,409 28,498 4,827

-3,368 18,128 7,530

28,384 28,604 15,103

17,951 48,031 22,501

-13,044 36,317 18,725

-10,961 36,487 24,473

-11,442 34,870 33,675

12,193 37,744 38,000

1,633,329 447,728 28,081 467,622 164,661

1,693,780 490,404 34,803 487,952 200,795

1,940,649 593,957 41,031 580,938 226,725

.. .. .. .. ..

167.5 45.9 30.6 8.9 2.4 22.0 4.2 10.6 4.1 13.7

160.3 46.4 31.2 8.4 2.4 25.5 4.9 11.3 4.3 13.7

131.1 40.1 26.4 6.8 2.1 29.1 4.7 12.4 4.5 13.8

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 12.6 4.6 14.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

659,764 130,134 2,609 135,560 49,974

1,053,955 185,104 5,762 191,462 58,687

298.0 58.8 36.9 26.7 5.3 12.9 4.4 11.4 3.8 8.0

240.2 42.2 23.8 11.9 2.1 13.2 3.7 16.6 5.4 13.5

1,630,270 305,408 13,420 347,643 139,214

1,910,296 465,836 20,127 517,052 160,281

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

200.3 37.5 26.1 11.8 2.2 22.8 4.8 20.2 6.3 11.9

11

162.9 39.7 38.6 11.9 2.9 21.1 3.7 14.2 4.1 12.3

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

328,821 274,229 60,884 30,937 4,387 29,948 10,306 213,345 17,827 173,145 54,592 0 54,592

352,716 327,698 121,461 59,964 5,876 61,497 18,134 206,237 75,976 101,750 25,018 171 24,847

16,793 610 268,141 60,680

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

461,483 374,089 160,172 72,773 7,910 87,399 30,375 213,917 165,484 35,286 87,394 33,829 53,565

642,125 400,669 140,890 93,282 10,512 47,608 20,248 259,780 218,813 32,879 241,455 60,435 181,020

632,483 406,687 144,087 102,385 11,657 41,702 19,443 262,600 224,942 32,644 225,796 58,479 167,317

649,555 426,330 148,222 107,893 13,727 40,330 20,461 278,107 245,044 28,998 223,225 80,760 142,465

639,331 433,342 144,066 107,464 15,137 36,602 19,529 289,277 256,162 29,326 205,989 70,002 135,986

620,716 414,465 136,193 104,604 15,570 31,589 17,727 278,272 241,185 33,389 206,251 71,738 134,514

34,760 1,117 324,328 28,388

36,390 2,186 372,120 89,363

37,532 3,387 397,726 244,399

38,091 3,991 404,038 228,445

37,847 4,614 423,306 226,249

36,790 5,136 430,345 208,986

34,397 5,054 .. ..

21,177 19,704 9,147 5,509 429 3,638 1,139 10,557 274 7,347 1,472 0 1,472

27,731 23,033 13,183 8,986 450 4,197 1,950 9,850 1,938 4,803 4,698 171 4,527

74,105 46,575 23,722 10,023 812 13,699 1,325 22,853 13,694 7,449 27,530 7,412 20,118

117,895 60,072 16,492 13,609 681 2,883 1,602 43,580 35,604 7,209 57,823 8,312 49,512

81,026 43,235 16,094 11,963 814 4,131 1,562 27,141 16,616 9,973 37,790 4,558 33,232

95,907 54,737 19,162 17,448 1,589 1,714 1,233 35,575 26,680 8,209 41,170 7,994 33,175

97,696 48,839 12,341 10,576 1,380 1,765 1,360 36,498 22,935 12,676 48,857 11,623 37,234

116,004 62,035 11,495 8,788 773 2,707 1,574 50,540 31,352 18,207 53,970 12,875 41,095

3,136 26

6,139 119

4,642 277

5,609 202

4,390 250

6,376 323

4,334 391

2,316 300

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

12,814 9,260 3,504 1,830 81 1,674 190 5,756 1,058 2,588 3,554 0 3,554

18,469 16,254 6,452 4,751 148 1,701 185 9,802 2,008 5,219 2,215 0 2,215

40,581 27,857 14,627 8,337 281 6,290 1,042 13,231 5,839 4,333 12,724 3,922 8,802

110,287 52,238 16,883 9,848 259 7,035 1,266 35,355 26,718 7,047 58,048 8,849 49,200

91,467 45,572 15,140 9,749 238 5,391 1,490 30,433 13,928 14,044 45,895 7,670 38,224

93,448 50,997 19,871 15,105 308 4,766 1,438 31,125 18,139 11,396 42,451 5,262 37,189

105,756 45,112 16,548 12,151 403 4,397 1,500 28,564 15,470 12,208 60,644 20,175 40,470

105,168 53,227 19,156 11,906 430 7,249 2,689 34,071 19,481 13,615 51,941 10,636 41,305

1,239 5

3,310 9

4,984 21

3,811 18

4,921 20

7,119 22

5,649 67

4,340 71

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

28,498 22,721 3,017 1,898 71 1,119 149 19,703 974 17,595 5,777 0 5,777

18,128 15,867 5,497 4,124 103 1,373 135 10,370 2,398 6,697 2,261 0 2,261

28,604 22,768 8,926 4,887 151 4,038 886 13,842 11,289 1,630 5,836 2,597 3,239

48,031 29,988 8,584 6,365 163 2,219 659 21,404 17,345 3,264 18,043 5,193 12,849

36,317 22,458 7,133 5,497 120 1,636 539 15,325 11,711 3,315 13,859 4,296 9,562

36,487 22,827 6,697 5,281 171 1,416 520 16,130 12,819 3,125 13,660 4,123 9,537

34,870 22,895 5,709 4,460 243 1,249 522 17,186 13,933 3,104 11,975 5,712 6,263

37,744 25,664 6,151 4,787 256 1,364 551 19,513 15,681 3,671 12,080 5,770 6,310

1,122 4

2,538 8

2,657 23

2,810 17

2,298 18

1,898 21

1,480 46

1,414 49

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

12

LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

12.8 5.6 0.4 0.2 75.4

13.0 5.1 0.4 0.2 76.3

14.0 4.8 0.4 0.2 76.4

.. .. .. .. ..

72,010 63,739 7,922 5,167 127 48,942 59,026 3,355 3,783 0 21,623 3,055 1,023 852 61 1,093 1,533 823 734 59 20,530 1,522 200 118 3 968 1,507 2,481 236 42 411 960 641 217 41 556 547 1,840 18 1 22 180 534 98 382 1 259 734 20 202 1,329 21,301 3,701 19,728 4,553 0 2,756 102 15,851 3,820 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 11,808 19,792 63,233 -13,660 -2,988 4,543 18,096 60,994 -4,674 -8,650 9,754 11,548 1,920 -10,208 16,063 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

3,453 3,185 80 80 0 31 31 0 343 193 11 0

568 5 430 396 34 60 50 10 542 227 1,268 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

35,941 10,241 19,756

-6,960 -11,421 10,347

.. -15,917 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.4 0.9 0.8 74.9

.. 6.2 1.6 0.9 59.4

.. 8.3 1.1 0.6 62.4

.. 6.4 0.6 0.2 73.9

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

8.9 12.9 3.7 5.7

7.9 15.1 5.1 12.3

7.2 9.9 3.6 12.3

8.4 12.6 9.1 4.8

6.0 13.6 7.4 20.9

5.7 12.1 8.7 20.7

5.7 14.7 10.5 23.3

.. .. .. ..

7.8 16.4 4.2 12.2

7.0 18.1 5.0 18.8

7.6 14.2 4.1 15.7

5.9 12.6 3.1 18.7

3.9 17.6 4.4 35.3

3.1 13.8 4.4 37.7

3.3 15.9 4.6 38.3

.. .. .. ..

9.8 9.1 6.8 9.4 7.4 9.9 11.1 4.2 12.6 11.0 3.3 5.3 2.9 11.5 9.3 0.2 3.6 7.9 -0.6 11.4 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

6.6 11.5 10.1 14.9

6.6 14.3 12.6 17.9

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

120.0 2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

Private non-debt flows

60.0

80.0

100.0

Private debt flows

13

-10.0

-5.0

Multilateral

0.0 Bilateral

5.0

10.0 Grants

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

102,895 84,925 83,729 1,196 1,569 16,401 1,849 1,307 542

139,541 118,031 116,613 1,418 1,815 19,696 2,878 1,647 1,231

167,325 146,602 142,803 3,799 2,177 18,546 2,294 1,982 312

145,225 121,199 114,670 6,529 2,542 21,484 2,666 2,523 143

151,383 129,585 123,130 6,455 2,219 19,580 2,807 2,658 150

161,163 137,908 130,940 6,968 1,831 21,424 2,784 2,625 159

163,935 141,014 133,862 7,152 1,378 21,543 2,914 2,750 164

162,494 139,191 128,885 10,306 896 22,407 .. .. ..

5,270 3,508 1,763

8,187 3,579 4,608

8,667 6,645 2,022

11,095 10,033 1,062

12,542 11,456 1,086

12,794 11,676 1,118

13,504 12,366 1,138

.. .. ..

13,470 13,194 277 7,105 6,890 214 7,992 1,627 4,829 3,561 101 1,167 3,163 11,934 10,451 316 1,167

13,324 13,258 65 12,618 12,221 397 2,330 1,625 5,980 4,578 180 1,221 -3,649 18,598 16,799 577 1,221

12,123 11,534 590 12,081 11,691 390 3,683 3,640 7,773 6,670 112 991 -4,091 19,854 18,361 501 991

9,651 9,627 24 11,578 11,340 238 -3,794 -1,866 6,231 5,165 130 936 -10,025 17,809 16,505 368 936

14,101 14,002 99 12,089 11,693 396 2,306 294 5,778 5,173 60 545 -3,473 17,868 16,866 456 545

12,436 12,436 0 14,656 14,096 560 -353 1,867 6,195 5,548 35 611 -6,548 20,850 19,644 595 611

14,280 14,280 0 16,033 15,522 511 -1,763 -10 5,618 4,880 35 703 -7,381 21,650 20,402 546 703

16,368 16,368 0 15,070 14,660 410 2,189 891 6,017 5,056 29 932 -4,485 21,087 19,716 439 932

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

11,004 6,304 1,501 0 3,200 1,383

10,169 1,037 1,031 5 8,096 2,516

3,160 -157 950 32 2,335 2,311

5,729 -1,713 4,145 243 3,055 1,583

8,207 2,309 3,713 -236 2,422 2,166

7,633 -1,660 5,599 95 3,600 2,175

9,271 -1,242 5,340 649 4,523 1,815

15,808 1,708 9,100 900 4,100 2,600

6,521 3,561 922

4,587 4,578 1,004

-4,958 6,670 1,448

-1,950 5,165 2,515

-140 5,173 3,174

-1,684 5,548 3,769

273 4,880 4,119

6,752 5,056 4,000

391,317 183,066 14,865 168,183 74,163

436,079 213,836 17,852 196,559 97,676

491,132 204,166 19,651 185,610 112,307

.. .. .. .. ..

82.7 38.7 9.8 3.2 1.5 49.0 5.3 12.9 38.2 16.1

75.4 37.0 9.8 2.9 1.4 60.6 6.0 13.3 37.8 16.2

80.3 33.4 10.6 2.8 1.1 68.5 7.3 13.1 37.5 16.0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 13.8 37.9 14.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

261,013 64,858 6,184 71,638 13,321

233,805 90,100 11,432 89,890 17,195

158.6 39.4 18.4 7.4 1.9 12.9 2.2 15.9 30.1 9.1

154.9 59.7 20.6 6.6 2.6 12.3 2.3 14.1 31.2 11.2

290,767 103,705 12,732 103,501 39,882

377,729 138,425 12,069 117,757 51,587

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

161.3 57.5 19.1 7.5 2.7 23.8 4.6 11.1 33.8 13.8

14

104.9 38.4 12.9 4.5 1.6 35.5 5.3 14.8 39.6 16.1

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

84,925 83,729 53,781 9,403 3,894 44,378 27,122 29,948 847 10,005 1,196 0 1,196

118,031 116,613 71,044 15,606 3,573 55,437 40,005 45,569 1,683 15,236 1,418 0 1,418

4,274 1,393 83,613 1,312

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

146,602 142,803 105,670 23,112 5,375 82,559 51,213 37,133 2,036 11,891 3,799 50 3,749

121,199 114,670 88,132 23,359 7,840 64,773 49,670 26,538 7,600 10,134 6,529 836 5,693

129,585 123,130 89,259 24,435 8,545 64,824 49,241 33,871 16,335 8,842 6,455 801 5,654

137,908 130,940 94,527 26,164 8,997 68,363 51,982 36,413 17,466 8,462 6,968 796 6,172

141,014 133,862 94,258 26,236 9,298 68,022 52,209 39,604 20,533 8,377 7,152 1,296 5,856

139,191 128,885 89,320 24,108 9,579 65,212 51,970 39,565 20,922 8,456 10,306 2,815 7,492

8,300 1,774 116,448 1,583

10,671 2,105 142,375 4,227

7,667 2,685 114,304 6,895

7,502 2,916 122,821 6,763

7,827 3,196 130,618 7,290

7,434 3,415 133,584 7,430

6,743 3,351 .. ..

13,194 12,767 6,387 1,401 233 4,986 3,086 6,380 550 1,816 427 0 427

13,258 13,169 5,721 2,380 242 3,341 1,864 7,448 0 727 89 0 89

11,534 11,036 6,041 3,561 815 2,480 2,129 4,995 888 1,006 498 50 448

9,627 8,214 3,355 1,878 526 1,477 781 4,859 2,031 1,347 1,413 115 1,298

14,002 12,236 3,382 2,418 569 964 745 8,854 6,070 1,345 1,766 140 1,626

12,436 10,753 4,468 2,899 643 1,569 1,358 6,285 2,675 1,219 1,682 160 1,522

14,280 12,810 3,786 2,453 773 1,334 1,127 9,024 5,754 1,372 1,470 750 720

16,368 12,113 5,469 3,231 1,150 2,237 1,873 6,644 2,991 2,118 4,255 1,784 2,472

880 102

1,164 37

1,455 128

532 118

501 155

577 148

439 177

576 181

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6,890 6,702 2,079 564 45 1,516 501 4,623 132 1,049 188 0 188

12,221 12,044 4,257 1,304 141 2,954 1,597 7,787 76 1,956 177 0 177

11,691 11,184 7,393 2,049 186 5,343 710 3,791 278 790 507 0 507

11,340 10,565 5,861 2,037 377 3,824 1,478 4,704 896 1,474 775 50 725

11,693 9,694 5,589 2,668 442 2,920 1,884 4,106 925 1,525 1,998 275 1,723

14,096 12,515 6,359 3,288 570 3,070 1,843 6,156 1,981 2,340 1,581 165 1,416

15,522 14,076 7,359 3,504 562 3,855 2,324 6,717 2,941 1,684 1,445 250 1,195

14,660 13,067 7,472 3,396 650 4,076 2,216 5,595 2,314 1,644 1,593 265 1,328

330 6

761 14

1,118 28

872 45

854 61

958 68

1,148 73

889 69

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,561 3,477 1,470 403 46 1,068 299 2,006 56 783 85 0 85

4,578 4,474 2,077 860 56 1,217 438 2,397 124 851 104 0 104

6,670 6,446 4,271 1,373 116 2,898 962 2,176 88 721 224 0 224

5,165 4,852 3,120 1,307 188 1,813 755 1,733 474 656 313 69 244

5,173 4,952 3,155 1,223 218 1,932 1,105 1,796 1,101 323 222 83 139

5,548 5,308 3,278 1,118 234 2,160 1,391 2,030 1,372 281 240 73 167

4,880 4,538 2,524 1,022 244 1,502 761 2,014 1,352 272 342 87 255

5,056 4,612 2,538 957 257 1,581 846 2,074 1,437 319 445 133 311

291 11

598 12

750 15

603 20

454 21

392 22

323 28

269 26

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

15

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

23.9 9.6 1.3 1.1 51.1

29.0 10.3 1.3 1.2 45.6

30.7 9.5 1.4 1.2 45.3

.. .. .. .. ..

766 4,565 8,947 340 290 0 2,732 3,178 0 0 566 1,038 4,934 210 121 294 678 696 167 101 273 359 4,237 43 20 186 218 526 73 106 86 136 131 55 76 100 82 395 19 31 4 10,614 357 179 1 0 2,481 7 0 0 0 0 13 120 66 0 0 0 85 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 14,204 -3,781 6,966 -10,520 8,390 7,992 2,330 3,683 -3,794 2,306 5,166 5,331 2,151 -4,077 7,563 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

564 0 255 234 21 176 126 51 58 5 8 0

258 0 134 113 21 96 86 10 116 14 30 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

9,779 -353 8,810

2,772 -1,763 3,826

.. 2,189 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 6.2 1.0 0.9 59.6

.. 7.3 1.7 1.0 44.8

.. 9.8 1.1 0.8 42.6

.. 10.7 0.9 0.8 50.5

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

6.9 15.1 4.4 19.2

7.4 13.6 4.0 15.8

5.9 14.7 4.5 22.7

5.9 13.0 4.8 23.0

5.2 12.4 4.0 26.3

3.3 14.0 4.6 33.7

4.7 11.9 4.9 27.7

.. .. .. ..

5.0 20.6 4.6 34.2

5.5 21.5 6.3 32.4

5.3 18.1 5.0 28.7

4.6 18.7 5.3 34.5

3.3 17.7 4.8 39.3

3.6 17.5 4.5 38.0

2.7 20.2 5.0 47.0

.. .. .. ..

8.5 8.8 7.0 7.0 6.2 10.6 7.8 8.7 8.4 9.5 4.2 2.3 3.6 4.4 3.5 6.8 3.4 12.3 13.4 19.1 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

3.1 10.3 4.7 29.1

5.9 7.0 4.8 16.3

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0

2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

-5.0

0.0

5.0

Private non-debt flows

10.0

15.0

Private debt flows

16

-4.0

-2.0

Multilateral

0.0

2.0 Bilateral

4.0

6.0 Grants

SOUTH ASIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

65,296 52,004 50,383 1,621 7,226 6,066 0 0 0

124,396 107,527 105,800 1,727 4,537 12,331 17 7 11

151,693 137,396 129,094 8,301 5,252 9,045 53 17 35

160,011 152,042 133,529 18,514 1,918 6,051 112 14 98

168,724 159,507 138,693 20,814 2,416 6,801 126 37 90

181,479 171,476 147,577 23,900 2,586 7,416 0 0 0

193,933 181,227 152,895 28,332 2,423 10,283 0 0 0

194,758 179,791 145,606 34,184 2,136 12,831 .. .. ..

1 1 0

34 34 1

65 21 45

222 34 188

277 98 179

4 4 0

0 0 0

.. .. ..

7,322 7,219 103 2,866 2,270 596 5,533 1,078 2,786 1,791 528 466 2,747 5,652 4,061 1,125 466

12,098 10,223 1,875 5,259 4,104 1,155 8,389 1,550 6,048 4,596 249 1,202 2,341 11,306 8,700 1,404 1,202

12,065 11,863 202 11,599 9,601 1,998 2,503 2,037 6,520 5,663 233 624 -4,017 18,119 15,264 2,231 624

14,191 13,997 195 9,784 9,301 483 3,469 -938 5,655 5,273 58 323 -2,186 15,439 14,574 541 323

10,793 10,326 468 12,652 12,241 411 -45 1,814 5,052 4,782 48 222 -5,097 17,704 17,023 459 222

17,332 16,682 650 17,726 17,023 703 347 741 7,158 7,015 31 112 -6,810 24,883 24,038 734 112

25,391 24,976 414 20,557 19,874 683 7,701 2,866 4,423 4,128 30 264 3,278 24,979 24,002 713 264

24,655 24,399 256 20,610 20,216 395 6,418 2,373 5,197 4,711 19 466 1,104 25,807 24,927 414 466

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

7,058 4,949 264 0 1,845 859

8,748 6,119 299 1 2,330 1,494

9,126 2,262 2,932 1,585 2,347 1,521

13,537 4,696 4,358 2,381 2,102 1,099

8,366 -1,916 6,704 1,047 2,530 1,271

17,265 -341 5,646 8,049 3,912 1,539

24,584 5,102 7,151 8,789 3,543 1,475

29,283 4,183 8,400 12,200 4,500 1,800

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

5,156 1,791 111

4,060 4,596 93

3,071 5,663 392

3,375 5,273 4,889

-2,263 4,782 5,847

3,018 7,015 7,232

12,039 4,128 8,417

15,572 4,711 9,000

648,064 125,059 24,155 117,610 85,389

757,752 149,197 31,094 142,335 122,324

866,788 200,857 31,671 171,118 149,908

.. .. .. .. ..

134.9 26.0 14.2 4.0 0.8 50.6 8.7 4.0 52.2 37.4

121.6 23.9 16.7 4.8 0.9 67.4 10.3 4.1 52.8 36.8

96.6 22.4 12.4 2.2 0.5 77.3 10.5 5.3 51.2 36.3

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 6.6 49.6 35.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

290,552 26,209 5,801 34,392 11,914

397,190 41,118 5,572 53,243 8,258

249.1 22.5 21.6 10.6 1.0 18.2 4.2 9.3 56.3 29.6

302.5 31.3 27.5 14.7 1.5 6.6 1.9 9.9 54.5 30.6

469,273 70,932 10,005 86,222 30,705

595,711 105,660 17,212 116,396 47,222

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

213.9 32.3 25.5 9.2 1.4 20.2 4.3 6.0 54.8 37.5

17

151.4 26.9 14.6 5.4 0.9 29.5 4.9 3.8 50.2 38.1

SOUTH ASIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

52,004 50,383 41,184 19,358 15,936 21,825 20,830 9,199 647 6,375 1,621 0 1,621

107,527 105,800 81,496 38,068 26,757 43,427 41,070 24,304 2,613 16,811 1,727 0 1,727

2,947 13,799 53,968 -1,964

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

137,396 129,094 103,670 56,875 39,246 46,796 43,887 25,424 3,421 14,124 8,301 1,065 7,236

152,042 133,529 100,763 61,025 44,399 39,738 35,913 32,766 10,903 19,579 18,514 1,560 16,954

159,507 138,693 103,845 63,110 49,943 40,734 38,164 34,848 10,497 22,665 20,814 1,289 19,525

171,476 147,577 110,778 66,737 54,675 44,042 41,065 36,798 8,045 27,303 23,900 1,192 22,707

181,227 152,895 113,673 70,470 58,352 43,203 40,880 39,222 9,199 28,808 28,332 5,446 22,886

179,791 145,606 111,684 69,720 56,678 41,964 39,979 33,923 3,863 28,872 34,184 9,160 25,024

9,646 21,071 107,656 -128

13,035 29,001 130,796 6,600

10,210 31,963 132,765 19,277

7,848 36,501 138,090 21,417

6,943 40,257 147,155 24,321

7,326 43,139 152,508 28,719

7,431 42,201 .. ..

7,219 6,648 3,976 2,462 2,003 1,514 1,266 2,672 320 1,861 572 0 572

10,223 9,970 6,904 4,402 2,327 2,501 1,939 3,066 427 2,072 252 0 252

11,863 9,929 6,378 3,975 2,280 2,403 2,093 3,551 86 1,901 1,934 520 1,414

13,997 13,410 6,129 4,347 2,390 1,782 1,327 7,281 5,512 940 586 0 586

10,326 8,815 5,908 4,429 2,894 1,479 1,259 2,907 0 2,779 1,511 240 1,271

16,682 11,546 6,483 4,530 2,444 1,953 1,802 5,062 1,348 3,569 5,136 210 4,926

24,976 16,365 6,871 4,885 3,070 1,986 1,844 9,494 4,089 5,291 8,611 3,191 5,420

24,399 14,798 7,892 5,168 2,868 2,724 2,483 6,906 600 5,897 9,601 3,864 5,737

393 1,543

1,576 1,558

860 1,374

866 1,655

681 2,248

920 1,874

819 2,557

964 2,047

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,270 1,885 1,172 284 95 888 773 713 0 496 385 0 385

4,104 3,745 2,378 1,009 239 1,369 1,225 1,367 280 371 359 0 359

9,601 9,103 5,764 2,227 470 3,537 3,017 3,339 319 1,992 498 0 498

9,301 8,594 5,353 2,827 800 2,526 1,919 3,241 50 2,843 707 35 672

12,241 11,234 8,406 6,427 957 1,979 1,572 2,827 320 2,261 1,008 370 638

17,023 14,301 8,166 5,210 1,110 2,957 2,534 6,134 4,299 1,683 2,722 302 2,420

19,874 15,315 5,649 3,121 1,269 2,528 1,866 9,665 2,950 6,358 4,559 225 4,334

20,216 16,467 4,335 2,198 1,285 2,137 1,636 12,132 5,930 5,791 3,749 150 3,599

139 68

553 151

1,173 318

1,232 548

3,283 691

2,148 803

515 895

484 880

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,791 1,629 917 406 124 511 420 713 17 527 162 0 162

4,596 4,448 2,179 1,065 198 1,114 952 2,269 180 1,806 148 0 148

5,663 5,000 2,933 1,640 318 1,293 1,113 2,067 194 1,315 663 58 604

5,273 4,392 2,264 1,366 361 898 686 2,127 210 1,809 881 227 655

4,782 4,050 2,125 1,227 387 898 748 1,925 396 1,479 732 164 568

7,015 5,701 1,843 941 418 902 802 3,858 1,430 2,399 1,313 61 1,253

4,128 3,189 1,733 809 482 924 787 1,456 255 1,176 939 173 766

4,711 3,613 1,738 915 476 822 698 1,875 637 1,186 1,098 290 808

247 105

752 149

995 215

614 236

468 254

284 282

186 333

232 311

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

18

SOUTH ASIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

6.5 15.1 2.5 0.3 60.1

6.5 16.2 2.1 0.2 62.0

6.4 15.6 1.9 0.2 62.5

.. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 918 157 0 0 0 29 0 0 0 0 653 0 0 0 0 575 0 0 0 0 78 0 0 0 0 236 146 0 0 0 200 145 0 0 0 37 0 51 0 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 9,829 13,104 -4,311 -1,971 12,480 5,533 8,389 2,503 3,469 -45 2,866 1,586 -8,068 -8,300 7,796 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

10 0 1 1 0 7 7 0 115 13 703 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146 16 482 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

12,754 347 9,621

12,454 7,701 2,750

.. 6,418 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 9.9 11.0 0.2 51.4

.. 12.5 5.0 0.5 54.1

.. 16.8 3.6 0.6 46.2

.. 14.8 2.8 0.3 57.1

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

5.4 26.7 7.3 31.5

4.7 24.2 7.8 40.2

3.9 23.2 7.2 43.6

4.6 13.0 5.4 27.8

2.2 24.9 7.2 56.2

1.8 23.9 7.0 57.6

2.2 24.2 5.5 55.1

.. .. .. ..

4.5 31.3 7.3 39.3

3.7 28.9 8.1 51.0

3.6 26.1 7.7 48.4

5.0 23.4 6.3 36.5

2.1 26.5 7.4 58.7

1.5 26.9 7.4 63.3

1.8 28.6 5.7 62.7

.. .. .. ..

8.0 6.8 5.8 4.3 2.8 13.7 14.8 6.0 5.4 6.8 7.3 7.1 3.9 4.6 4.1 9.0 18.8 15.7 21.5 28.1 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

3.2 6.5 4.6 25.7

3.9 7.1 4.8 25.6

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

30.0 2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Private non-debt flows

15.0

20.0

Private debt flows

19

-4.0

-2.0

Multilateral

0.0

2.0 Bilateral

4.0

6.0 Grants

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

107,039 82,736 77,351 5,385 6,732 17,571 5,414 4,870 544

176,805 149,612 144,336 5,276 6,612 20,581 9,358 6,418 2,939

235,076 185,771 173,967 11,804 8,673 40,632 20,519 15,995 4,525

211,002 172,368 160,992 11,376 6,739 31,895 13,052 10,092 2,960

211,701 176,842 164,357 12,486 7,009 27,849 12,857 9,648 3,209

231,229 194,232 178,796 15,436 7,244 29,752 15,711 12,375 3,336

235,056 196,576 181,970 14,606 7,238 31,243 16,129 12,803 3,326

215,602 180,650 165,352 15,298 5,905 29,047 .. .. ..

5,308 3,689 1,619

17,818 9,895 7,923

41,390 28,749 12,641

25,854 19,227 6,627

24,610 17,540 7,070

27,402 20,000 7,401

26,203 19,910 6,293

.. .. ..

9,710 8,973 738 6,262 5,491 770 5,234 1,785 4,721 3,425 402 894 513 10,982 8,917 1,172 894

10,336 9,676 660 5,580 4,629 951 7,034 2,278 5,304 4,360 238 705 1,731 10,884 8,989 1,189 705

14,024 11,030 2,994 9,425 7,052 2,372 7,565 2,965 5,354 3,976 559 819 2,211 14,779 11,028 2,931 819

10,182 9,658 525 9,030 8,568 462 41 -1,111 4,482 3,329 43 1,111 -4,442 13,513 11,897 505 1,111

11,127 9,903 1,224 9,575 8,816 759 -243 -1,795 3,457 2,832 143 483 -3,700 13,032 11,647 902 483

12,734 12,336 399 9,001 8,552 449 2,782 -951 3,630 3,175 28 427 -848 12,632 11,727 478 427

12,180 11,518 662 9,643 8,852 791 3,608 1,072 4,165 3,689 30 445 -557 13,808 12,542 821 445

14,771 14,471 300 15,667 14,929 738 635 1,531 7,687 7,094 30 563 -6,987 23,354 22,023 768 563

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

9,940 3,481 963 3 5,493 3,007

18,321 5,047 951 393 11,931 5,003

22,604 3,978 4,361 2,954 11,312 4,944

21,726 1,090 6,494 4,157 9,987 3,699

24,188 1,087 9,514 -367 13,953 4,551

40,103 3,784 13,562 735 22,022 5,191

44,855 2,665 11,276 6,701 24,213 5,384

52,742 -458 17,600 7,200 28,400 6,700

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

4,412 3,425 2,103

11,100 4,360 2,861

14,719 3,976 3,910

10,552 3,329 7,845

12,417 2,832 8,939

26,182 3,175 10,746

32,580 3,689 8,586

36,648 7,094 9,000

332,516 118,473 4,980 127,871 37,924

403,586 147,527 5,730 153,642 41,436

486,689 174,319 7,323 181,508 63,395

.. .. .. .. ..

178.7 63.7 11.0 2.9 1.0 17.9 3.6 13.2 43.0 28.9

156.7 57.3 8.6 2.5 0.9 17.9 3.2 12.9 49.3 29.9

134.8 48.3 7.9 2.4 0.9 27.0 4.2 13.3 49.7 32.0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 13.5 50.9 33.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

197,759 59,136 1,151 60,069 8,387

279,171 80,405 1,767 86,542 15,363

181.0 54.1 18.6 8.0 2.4 7.8 1.7 16.4 29.6 15.6

219.9 63.3 13.5 6.6 1.9 8.7 2.1 11.6 33.1 21.6

299,940 90,456 3,177 106,513 20,652

312,253 116,887 4,613 116,542 36,792

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

259.9 78.4 16.3 5.9 1.8 8.8 2.3 17.3 34.4 23.2

20

180.5 67.6 11.6 3.8 1.4 17.4 3.8 15.1 39.0 25.9

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

82,736 77,351 50,844 16,668 9,448 34,175 22,269 26,507 410 9,861 5,385 0 5,385

149,612 144,336 108,645 38,141 24,011 70,504 34,443 35,691 301 13,997 5,276 0 5,276

5,268 6,100 77,179 5,557

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

185,771 173,967 137,357 54,547 38,926 82,810 41,867 36,611 4,784 12,701 11,804 350 11,454

172,368 160,992 134,825 54,722 45,441 80,104 36,802 26,167 9,150 8,596 11,376 1,360 10,016

176,842 164,357 138,859 61,248 53,024 77,611 38,020 25,498 10,699 6,881 12,486 3,823 8,662

194,232 178,796 153,418 69,243 60,528 84,175 53,474 25,378 10,979 7,278 15,436 8,180 7,256

196,576 181,970 155,653 75,260 66,605 80,393 50,288 26,317 11,150 9,018 14,606 8,766 5,839

180,650 165,352 141,565 72,607 65,791 68,958 43,847 23,787 8,683 10,103 15,298 8,885 6,413

9,160 15,756 144,166 5,446

7,626 27,895 173,859 11,912

3,473 33,621 160,085 12,283

2,721 39,368 163,821 13,021

2,674 45,198 178,607 15,626

2,467 49,726 182,183 14,393

2,077 49,052 .. ..

8,973 8,503 4,902 2,305 1,283 2,597 1,962 3,601 0 488 469 0 469

9,676 9,046 7,145 4,534 2,762 2,611 2,059 1,901 0 378 630 0 630

11,030 10,282 5,891 4,202 3,181 1,689 1,553 4,390 541 1,623 748 350 398

9,658 7,539 4,132 3,359 3,002 773 631 3,407 765 1,841 2,119 712 1,407

9,903 8,328 4,727 4,024 3,776 703 587 3,601 2,472 1,015 1,574 1,554 21

12,336 8,115 4,463 3,985 3,553 478 357 3,652 1,414 2,024 4,221 4,174 47

11,518 10,154 5,360 4,868 4,443 492 453 4,795 1,000 3,570 1,363 764 599

14,471 10,320 5,440 4,715 4,371 725 681 4,880 0 4,604 4,151 1,389 2,762

644 879

808 2,027

274 2,392

75 2,193

55 2,860

71 2,744

33 3,036

11 2,729

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5,491 4,821 1,494 450 87 1,044 265 3,327 30 1,811 671 0 671

4,629 4,164 2,546 1,346 269 1,201 311 1,617 31 999 466 0 466

7,052 5,808 2,977 2,015 434 962 430 2,830 40 1,261 1,245 0 1,245

8,568 7,166 3,447 1,629 542 1,818 823 3,719 480 2,443 1,402 0 1,402

8,816 5,900 2,590 1,453 546 1,137 630 3,310 941 1,516 2,915 350 2,565

8,552 6,494 3,163 1,271 474 1,891 933 3,332 780 1,483 2,058 250 1,808

8,852 6,913 4,393 1,451 584 2,942 1,542 2,520 371 1,507 1,940 145 1,795

14,929 11,980 8,169 1,938 798 6,230 3,168 3,811 91 3,205 2,950 1,270 1,679

252 28

719 51

1,055 120

550 226

459 304

391 223

339 250

279 234

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,425 3,083 1,132 530 84 602 165 1,951 14 945 343 0 343

4,360 4,029 2,706 1,110 162 1,596 559 1,323 13 616 331 0 331

3,976 3,471 2,008 1,234 254 774 358 1,463 322 457 505 0 505

3,329 2,923 1,834 842 313 992 301 1,089 561 302 406 41 365

2,832 2,298 1,420 885 420 535 253 878 500 192 533 160 373

3,175 2,526 1,513 765 366 748 344 1,013 589 200 649 338 311

3,689 3,069 2,140 846 475 1,294 776 929 584 144 621 354 267

7,094 6,355 5,463 762 456 4,701 2,398 893 438 324 738 422 316

364 51

649 97

629 178

213 199

200 285

113 238

77 317

51 292

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

21

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

14.8 3.9 1.8 1.2 61.9

23.1 5.7 4.3 1.7 49.2

21.7 4.7 4.2 1.7 51.1

.. .. .. .. ..

4,515 5,987 3,074 22,598 5,976 2,264 91 142 73 342 1,582 3,969 1,780 13,118 2,729 483 2,696 1,290 11,088 2,568 1,099 1,274 490 2,030 162 429 1,724 730 9,033 1,614 202 1,376 627 8,480 1,561 227 348 102 553 53 253 1,602 1,302 629 3,737 1 87 214 297 1,921 0 1,262 360 479 970 0 0 29 137 452 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 16,026 19,776 14,142 -2,995 8,146 5,234 7,034 7,565 41 -243 5,980 7,695 845 -6,661 8,705 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

901 302 319 290 29 169 165 4 1,416 391 1,108 0

3,958 113 1,827 1,794 33 855 838 18 3,859 693 2,398 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

19,528 2,782 10,553

3,827 3,608 6,467

.. 635 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.9 4.5 2.3 39.5

.. 3.9 5.4 2.1 36.6

.. 5.4 3.6 1.7 41.1

.. 4.0 1.9 1.1 61.7

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

5.8 22.3 5.8 31.4

4.3 25.4 6.9 43.3

3.7 22.4 5.4 42.9

3.2 24.1 6.0 47.6

3.8 24.5 7.1 44.4

2.6 23.7 6.8 49.2

2.0 22.1 3.1 47.9

.. .. .. ..

4.3 28.9 7.2 45.0

3.5 28.4 7.7 50.9

1.8 31.8 8.7 65.9

1.1 36.8 9.2 74.2

2.8 31.5 8.0 57.1

1.1 37.9 9.2 74.8

1.2 33.5 3.5 69.0

.. .. .. ..

8.8 8.1 5.7 5.9 6.2 9.9 11.6 12.4 7.7 8.7 3.0 2.7 1.9 2.0 5.1 5.6 7.8 18.4 13.3 15.7 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

4.3 7.2 4.1 19.5

3.2 6.4 2.5 18.7

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

60.0 2005

2005

2004

2004

2003

2003

2002

2002

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003

2004

Official flows

2005

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Private non-debt flows

15.0

20.0

25.0

Private debt flows

22

-10.0

0.0

Multilateral

10.0

20.0 Bilateral

30.0

40.0 Grants

LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

178,782 141,236 133,475 7,761 13,663 23,883 5,733 5,175 557

332,618 285,168 277,476 7,692 10,818 36,632 12,743 8,581 4,162

393,532 336,620 321,023 15,597 13,491 43,421 24,208 19,895 4,312

369,827 330,151 304,618 25,533 10,029 29,647 13,667 11,238 2,429

380,699 341,485 314,728 26,757 10,807 28,406 13,345 10,618 2,727

412,459 370,088 340,349 29,739 11,149 31,222 16,012 13,149 2,863

426,945 379,869 346,191 33,678 10,888 36,188 16,719 13,576 3,143

412,320 367,177 326,154 41,023 8,980 36,163 .. .. ..

5,737 4,037 1,700

23,352 13,442 9,910

53,824 42,189 11,635

28,669 23,649 5,021

27,226 22,104 5,122

29,875 24,508 5,367

30,106 24,409 5,697

.. .. ..

16,605 15,806 799 9,044 7,721 1,322 10,150 2,589 7,437 5,213 906 1,318 2,714 16,481 12,934 2,228 1,318

22,488 19,959 2,529 10,831 8,810 2,021 15,316 3,659 11,184 8,845 452 1,887 4,132 22,015 17,655 2,472 1,887

23,647 20,010 3,637 19,408 15,052 4,356 7,840 3,601 10,538 8,761 772 1,005 -2,697 29,946 23,814 5,127 1,005

22,325 21,483 842 15,983 14,881 1,102 5,161 -1,181 9,275 8,182 134 960 -4,115 25,258 23,063 1,236 960

18,460 16,763 1,697 18,723 17,393 1,330 891 1,155 7,578 6,894 203 482 -6,687 26,301 24,287 1,532 482

24,866 23,803 1,063 24,043 22,696 1,347 972 148 9,608 9,223 67 318 -8,637 33,651 31,919 1,414 318

34,262 33,151 1,112 27,190 25,548 1,642 11,330 4,258 7,623 7,063 65 496 3,707 34,813 32,611 1,707 496

36,076 35,603 473 31,118 29,869 1,249 7,165 2,208 11,798 10,971 53 774 -4,879 42,917 40,841 1,302 774

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

16,875 8,085 1,364 -1 7,426 3,962

27,025 11,149 1,544 7 14,325 6,689

28,312 4,958 6,465 1,596 15,293 6,942

32,862 6,602 10,681 2,381 13,198 5,468

32,573 -631 15,012 1,120 17,072 6,595

51,120 1,108 14,862 8,224 26,927 7,436

63,243 7,603 17,031 8,899 29,710 7,840

.. .. .. .. .. ..

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

10,291 5,213 1,371

16,590 8,845 1,590

16,110 8,761 3,441

15,159 8,182 9,521

14,205 6,894 11,474

29,081 9,223 12,815

42,856 7,063 13,324

.. .. ..

920,586 229,241 32,953 233,664 118,100

1,047,575 299,918 40,798 301,862 159,966

1,197,848 345,901 43,967 312,085 203,323

.. .. .. .. ..

166.1 41.4 11.5 3.3 0.8 31.0 6.1 7.5 52.9 35.0

137.5 39.4 11.2 3.2 0.9 38.8 6.4 7.6 56.9 35.6

123.4 35.6 10.1 2.2 0.6 47.6 7.8 8.5 56.4 36.9

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 8.8 56.1 37.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

450,998 73,293 6,626 88,009 17,406

592,937 98,612 8,115 122,567 17,364

243.9 39.6 22.5 10.1 1.6 9.7 2.4 13.4 41.3 21.0

337.3 56.1 22.3 11.3 1.9 5.2 1.7 11.0 46.5 23.5

658,510 140,002 13,278 174,642 42,497

826,058 200,254 22,564 213,140 75,150

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

281.1 59.8 21.4 7.5 1.6 10.8 2.9 11.0 49.0 29.0

23

184.7 44.8 12.6 4.6 1.1 20.3 4.2 8.0 49.0 33.2

LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

141,236 133,475 98,435 37,508 26,926 60,927 46,948 35,040 1,136 17,465 7,761 0 7,761

285,168 277,476 219,556 78,083 52,651 141,473 101,867 57,920 2,952 32,540 7,692 0 7,692

8,096 20,637 136,876 4,360

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

336,620 321,023 272,406 114,071 80,433 158,334 112,441 48,618 6,124 22,879 15,597 1,065 14,532

330,151 304,618 255,512 122,618 96,102 132,894 84,985 49,106 15,873 25,671 25,533 1,810 23,723

341,485 314,728 265,599 133,237 111,209 132,362 90,094 49,129 14,823 27,510 26,757 1,539 25,218

370,088 340,349 289,100 146,629 125,330 142,471 109,243 51,249 12,365 32,226 29,739 1,192 28,547

379,869 346,191 292,596 157,496 136,504 135,099 104,348 53,596 13,502 34,068 33,678 5,346 28,331

367,177 326,154 278,216 154,387 134,301 123,828 97,146 47,939 8,796 34,152 41,023 9,060 31,963

18,754 37,885 279,233 5,935

20,914 58,382 322,646 13,974

14,146 69,177 303,994 26,157

11,122 80,627 314,521 26,965

10,199 91,375 340,250 29,839

10,380 99,811 346,072 33,797

10,062 97,755 .. ..

15,806 14,516 9,552 4,781 3,369 4,771 3,744 4,964 341 2,331 1,290 0 1,290

19,959 18,791 14,401 8,970 5,122 5,430 4,258 4,390 427 2,394 1,168 0 1,168

20,010 17,658 13,097 8,918 5,933 4,179 3,610 4,561 86 2,471 2,352 520 1,832

21,483 20,476 12,313 8,683 6,257 3,630 2,899 8,163 5,512 1,172 1,007 0 1,007

16,763 14,990 11,722 9,288 7,544 2,434 2,118 3,268 0 2,954 1,773 240 1,533

23,803 18,294 12,627 9,642 7,164 2,986 2,578 5,667 1,348 3,740 5,509 210 5,299

33,151 24,131 14,188 10,980 8,802 3,208 2,817 9,943 4,089 5,549 9,020 3,091 5,929

35,603 23,393 15,033 10,857 8,159 4,175 3,618 8,360 1,350 6,435 12,209 3,864 8,346

992 2,462

2,422 3,586

1,364 3,920

1,006 4,275

731 5,546

1,006 5,359

865 6,384

1,004 5,208

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

7,721 6,546 2,679 726 194 1,954 1,073 3,867 31 2,206 1,175 0 1,175

8,810 7,800 4,899 2,327 550 2,572 1,551 2,901 311 1,449 1,010 0 1,010

15,052 13,977 9,145 4,350 1,007 4,796 3,518 4,832 381 2,479 1,075 0 1,075

14,881 13,336 8,667 4,488 1,381 4,178 2,575 4,670 46 3,605 1,544 35 1,509

17,393 15,739 11,085 7,931 1,515 3,153 2,272 4,655 816 3,044 1,654 370 1,284

22,696 19,147 11,728 6,537 1,614 5,190 3,797 7,420 4,302 2,157 3,548 552 2,996

25,548 20,202 9,731 4,692 1,941 5,039 3,055 10,471 2,965 6,580 5,346 225 5,121

29,869 25,555 12,675 4,274 2,186 8,401 5,028 12,880 6,047 5,950 4,315 150 4,165

376 97

1,223 207

2,200 459

1,780 783

3,745 988

2,563 1,020

877 1,188

794 1,173

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5,213 4,649 2,044 927 224 1,117 600 2,605 38 1,457 564 0 564

8,845 8,304 4,781 2,137 377 2,643 1,487 3,524 196 2,432 541 0 541

8,761 7,829 4,970 2,928 618 2,042 1,447 2,859 330 1,468 933 58 874

8,182 6,992 4,184 2,287 738 1,897 1,026 2,808 515 2,011 1,190 240 950

6,894 5,942 3,680 2,186 852 1,494 1,136 2,263 546 1,555 952 178 774

9,223 7,745 3,546 1,775 854 1,771 1,304 4,199 1,542 2,461 1,478 61 1,417

7,063 5,927 4,213 1,786 1,086 2,427 1,744 1,715 367 1,213 1,135 166 969

10,971 9,662 7,513 1,844 1,065 5,669 3,307 2,148 773 1,246 1,310 283 1,027

591 161

1,373 253

1,629 412

851 455

689 558

418 546

281 714

302 664

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

24

LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

10.5 10.3 2.0 0.8 59.0

14.3 11.8 3.1 1.0 53.9

13.3 11.1 3.0 1.0 55.1

.. .. .. .. ..

4,737 6,002 2,849 23,437 6,370 2,295 38 142 121 350 1,709 3,720 1,617 13,655 2,804 566 2,746 1,349 11,516 2,629 1,143 974 268 2,139 175 546 1,634 790 9,042 1,814 206 1,371 706 8,448 1,759 340 263 84 594 55 322 1,575 1,752 672 4,027 1 87 947 1,936 2,093 0 1,262 1,559 9,237 1,262 0 0 119 137 452 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 25,491 35,824 4,450 -15,641 20,885 10,150 15,316 7,840 5,161 891 9,213 11,100 -8,565 -15,806 17,466 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

873 168 384 353 31 207 202 4 1,716 563 13,829 0

2,478 117 867 861 6 376 372 4 4,334 863 4,333 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

31,760 972 21,499

14,486 11,330 9,377

.. 7,165 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.4 6.6 1.4 44.2

.. 7.5 4.6 1.3 40.6

.. 10.5 3.3 1.2 38.9

.. 10.0 2.2 0.7 57.6

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

5.3 24.4 6.5 32.8

4.5 24.6 7.3 41.3

3.3 25.6 7.5 49.7

3.5 20.9 6.6 43.0

2.4 28.9 7.8 58.2

1.6 28.2 7.6 62.4

1.8 29.1 6.1 62.5

.. .. .. ..

4.3 28.7 6.9 41.3

3.6 28.2 7.7 50.1

2.9 28.5 8.2 55.4

3.0 30.3 7.9 56.2

2.4 30.1 8.0 59.9

1.4 30.7 8.0 66.7

1.5 32.3 6.3 68.0

.. .. .. ..

8.1 7.2 6.0 4.4 3.1 11.8 14.1 6.6 5.5 7.0 5.1 5.9 2.9 4.6 3.7 8.4 15.9 13.5 21.4 26.7 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

3.0 7.2 3.7 26.2

3.9 7.8 4.4 25.8

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

70.0 2004

2004

2003

2003

40.0

2002

2002

30.0

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

60.0

50.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003 Official flows

2004

-10.0

0.0

10.0

Private non-debt flows

20.0

30.0

Private debt flows

25

-10.0

0.0

Multilateral

10.0

20.0 Bilateral

30.0

40.0 Grants

MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

750,391 615,853 538,738 77,115 24,503 110,036 6,331 2,362 3,968

1,004,055 813,715 761,412 52,304 23,834 166,506 39,981 11,055 28,926

1,576,666 1,227,869 1,023,953 203,916 47,610 301,187 19,974 6,167 13,807

1,914,123 1,578,931 1,059,254 519,677 48,419 286,773 17,911 10,280 7,631

1,978,327 1,584,153 1,059,526 524,627 85,002 309,173 22,424 7,935 14,489

2,169,334 1,684,030 1,110,687 573,343 95,716 389,588 30,369 7,382 22,987

2,328,780 1,785,050 1,147,246 637,804 85,156 458,574 33,585 7,319 26,266

2,388,075 1,827,281 1,107,523 719,758 40,273 520,522 .. .. ..

15,515 5,927 9,588

36,379 13,810 22,569

52,539 17,622 34,917

34,312 22,752 11,560

36,911 18,618 18,292

52,259 19,026 33,234

60,677 18,727 41,950

.. .. ..

74,588 71,449 3,138 45,580 43,043 2,537 28,055 -953 58,384 46,058 1,938 10,389 -30,329 103,964 89,101 4,474 10,389

104,475 98,762 5,713 73,152 66,998 6,154 40,868 9,545 52,775 42,519 2,049 8,207 -11,907 125,927 109,517 8,203 8,207

200,842 176,564 24,277 112,158 105,423 6,735 144,550 55,866 80,392 63,771 2,019 14,602 64,158 192,550 169,194 8,754 14,602

239,806 230,534 9,272 240,354 220,690 19,664 -6,118 -5,569 111,372 92,502 2,747 16,123 -117,489 351,726 313,192 22,411 16,123

264,605 231,875 32,730 257,887 238,804 19,083 9,809 3,092 88,693 76,706 2,768 9,219 -78,885 346,581 315,510 21,851 9,219

310,122 281,563 28,558 293,018 267,122 25,896 70,336 54,732 93,695 79,763 2,357 11,575 -21,856 386,713 346,885 28,253 11,575

360,231 354,396 5,835 318,249 298,253 19,995 107,752 65,770 97,192 79,846 3,398 13,949 10,559 415,441 378,099 23,393 13,949

408,162 404,654 3,508 362,264 318,469 43,795 112,975 67,076 105,651 86,659 2,444 16,549 6,376 467,915 405,128 46,239 16,549

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

44,928 28,406 10,464 47 6,012 3,657

68,684 31,764 20,124 3,383 13,413 7,100

199,095 71,142 98,659 12,999 16,295 12,479

195,203 9,843 158,156 11,704 15,500 9,794

158,403 -6,930 145,278 4,656 15,399 12,225

194,935 14,441 146,745 16,975 16,774 13,129

299,721 56,142 194,354 28,660 20,565 12,871

.. .. .. .. .. ..

-11,513 46,058 10,384

10,890 42,519 15,275

100,078 63,771 35,246

35,236 92,502 67,465

13,912 76,706 67,785

24,507 79,763 90,666

116,282 79,846 103,593

.. .. ..

5,183,255 1,843,982 79,563 1,803,679 856,462

5,855,754 2,223,664 99,675 2,160,196 1,117,750

6,916,687 2,766,474 116,383 2,666,855 1,481,070

.. .. .. .. ..

107.3 38.2 18.8 4.8 1.7 43.3 5.7 15.6 10.3 11.4

97.6 37.0 17.4 4.2 1.6 51.5 6.2 18.0 10.3 10.8

84.2 33.7 15.0 3.5 1.4 63.6 6.7 19.7 10.1 10.1

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 21.8 9.6 9.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES)

2,346,014 427,759 12,962 452,648 107,343

3,105,736 652,443 22,922 660,764 168,346

175.4 32.0 24.3 13.6 2.5 14.3 2.8 14.7 10.1 8.7

153.9 32.3 19.3 8.1 1.7 16.8 3.1 16.6 12.0 12.5

4,337,982 1,165,896 43,870 1,253,391 445,753

4,977,574 1,692,671 61,515 1,671,021 633,205

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

135.2 36.3 16.5 6.9 1.9 28.3 4.3 19.1 11.9 11.0

26

113.1 38.5 20.8 6.6 2.2 33.1 4.5 15.0 10.4 11.0

MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

615,853 538,738 191,541 64,931 9,984 126,610 65,507 347,197 27,582 244,169 77,115 0 77,115

813,715 761,412 331,481 125,275 15,832 206,206 105,074 429,930 101,326 216,357 52,304 347 51,957

38,515 3,523 531,918 83,935

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

1,227,869 1,023,953 533,113 173,037 26,228 360,075 162,148 490,841 240,066 137,218 203,916 49,992 153,924

1,578,931 1,059,254 525,568 210,877 33,219 314,690 165,630 533,686 360,046 110,546 519,677 92,157 427,521

1,584,153 1,059,526 514,248 225,776 36,606 288,472 167,865 545,278 385,691 105,628 524,627 93,577 431,050

1,684,030 1,110,687 530,330 234,799 41,390 295,530 181,439 580,357 429,986 101,129 573,343 126,585 446,758

1,785,050 1,147,246 535,458 235,799 44,823 299,659 190,870 611,788 463,969 101,004 637,804 131,781 506,023

1,827,281 1,107,523 493,325 227,478 44,248 265,847 185,930 614,198 466,127 109,227 719,758 158,129 561,628

73,560 7,120 756,322 57,393

90,777 13,167 1,018,368 209,501

97,999 17,666 1,052,350 526,581

100,181 19,987 1,052,387 531,765

98,947 22,598 1,102,523 581,506

95,745 24,516 1,138,240 646,810

89,978 23,463 .. ..

71,449 66,558 23,871 11,757 1,033 12,114 6,300 42,687 4,743 21,667 4,891 0 4,891

98,762 82,660 35,008 18,340 1,703 16,668 9,086 47,652 4,749 13,761 16,103 291 15,812

176,564 120,626 53,357 23,453 2,903 29,904 10,747 67,269 25,363 23,672 55,939 13,579 42,360

230,534 121,708 41,838 26,462 1,986 15,375 10,273 79,870 53,649 19,012 108,826 11,757 97,068

231,875 98,908 34,558 22,962 2,368 11,596 6,831 64,350 40,350 19,474 132,967 11,231 121,736

281,563 113,918 37,172 28,220 3,288 8,953 7,042 76,745 51,756 20,315 167,646 22,273 145,373

354,396 126,791 31,971 22,876 3,240 9,095 7,377 94,820 62,874 28,366 227,604 34,160 193,444

404,654 152,988 32,821 20,585 2,605 12,235 9,941 120,167 77,417 38,825 251,666 42,241 209,425

6,923 414

11,016 759

11,730 1,556

12,424 945

9,557 1,221

10,515 1,169

9,599 1,295

6,814 807

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

43,043 36,294 9,116 3,504 168 5,611 1,403 27,178 1,389 14,988 6,749 0 6,749

66,998 60,726 18,144 9,570 348 8,574 3,270 42,582 4,075 21,243 6,272 0 6,272

105,423 78,423 34,983 16,405 558 18,577 5,330 43,440 11,713 15,345 27,000 4,042 22,958

220,690 108,875 40,517 18,750 1,078 21,768 9,989 68,357 35,276 21,598 111,816 15,025 96,791

238,804 108,029 43,976 22,960 995 21,016 8,343 64,052 27,651 25,563 130,776 12,146 118,630

267,122 126,606 52,747 29,931 1,204 22,816 9,602 73,859 34,653 29,013 140,516 9,711 130,806

298,253 119,101 50,463 26,746 1,338 23,718 11,854 68,637 33,682 27,421 179,153 24,346 154,807

318,469 146,285 65,536 24,921 1,474 40,615 10,946 80,749 41,429 28,967 172,184 15,589 156,595

2,439 20

6,716 41

9,473 83

8,048 166

12,277 255

15,065 303

14,381 357

10,850 364

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

46,058 38,401 8,469 3,915 132 4,554 1,326 29,932 1,585 23,889 7,657 0 7,657

42,519 38,484 13,579 8,366 244 5,212 1,837 24,906 4,180 15,008 4,035 3 4,032

63,771 53,264 24,222 10,791 395 13,430 4,689 29,043 16,101 6,985 10,507 3,113 7,393

92,502 60,631 22,894 13,338 476 9,556 4,221 37,738 26,342 7,897 31,870 7,801 24,069

76,706 51,755 20,456 11,512 489 8,944 3,670 31,299 22,550 6,535 24,952 6,733 18,219

79,763 53,435 20,275 10,453 557 9,823 4,478 33,160 24,897 6,017 26,327 7,781 18,547

79,846 53,507 18,498 9,294 631 9,204 4,592 35,009 27,002 6,067 26,338 8,820 17,519

86,659 56,697 17,359 9,266 693 8,093 4,075 39,338 29,766 7,555 29,962 11,056 18,906

2,672 26

5,495 48

6,340 92

6,831 123

5,702 136

4,716 151

3,855 183

3,504 172

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

27

MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

2003

2004

2005

17.4 10.8 0.7 0.3 63.8

19.8 10.6 0.6 0.4 62.3

21.7 10.2 0.7 0.4 61.5

.. .. .. .. ..

83,567 73,326 28,520 37,184 11,412 49,141 61,811 6,758 23,071 1,969 25,583 6,556 13,747 7,069 6,278 1,615 3,079 5,642 5,535 5,506 23,969 3,477 8,105 1,534 771 1,895 4,164 4,432 4,926 1,537 687 3,206 1,574 2,725 1,380 1,208 958 2,858 2,201 157 14 11,053 494 262 944 1 2,803 15 13 115 1,329 24,883 2,661 32,393 4,921 0 4,359 43 16,879 3,820 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 77,257 63,048 175,020 -46,143 57,459 28,055 40,868 144,550 -6,118 9,809 29,271 35,494 10,249 -37,382 54,349 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

10,427 3,323 5,701 5,110 591 941 824 117 224 119 65 0

5,660 737 3,523 3,439 84 1,002 619 383 367 657 1,343 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

191,007 70,336 67,935

159,446 107,752 29,481

.. 112,975 ..

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF LONG-TERM DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 8.4 1.3 1.7 61.7

.. 11.9 1.6 2.3 44.7

.. 13.7 0.9 1.0 50.1

.. 12.1 0.6 0.3 63.3

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

8.2 13.3 4.9 10.0

7.6 15.0 5.4 14.9

6.5 12.3 4.2 17.4

7.5 12.7 7.3 10.9

5.6 12.8 6.3 23.3

5.0 11.7 7.0 24.1

4.8 12.4 7.7 26.4

.. .. .. ..

7.0 18.5 5.0 19.3

6.3 19.8 6.1 25.8

6.5 16.9 4.6 22.4

5.4 16.8 4.3 26.5

3.5 18.6 4.9 39.6

3.4 16.2 4.3 38.6

2.9 18.4 4.8 44.7

.. .. .. ..

8.9 8.7 6.6 8.4 6.8 10.3 11.1 7.8 11.0 9.7 4.9 4.8 3.8 8.5 7.0 4.8 6.0 12.5 4.4 14.5 10. GRAPH OF AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS

5.7 9.9 8.1 18.3

5.5 10.3 8.7 20.1

.. .. .. ..

(current prices, US$ billion) Aggregate Net Resource Flows

Private Flows

Official Flows

350.0 2004

2004

2003

2003

200.0

2002

2002

150.0

2001

2001

2000

2000

1999

1999

300.0

250.0

100.0

50.0

0.0 1999

2000

2001

Private flows

2002

2003 Official flows

2004

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

Private non-debt flows

150.0

200.0

250.0

Private debt flows

28

-20.0

-10.0

Multilateral

0.0

10.0 Bilateral

20.0

30.0 Grants

Country tables

29

ALBANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

456 330 330 0 65 62 2 2 0

1,061 936 921 15 88 37 3 1 3

1,096 982 971 11 83 31 4 1 3

1,119 1,008 995 13 81 29 1 0 1

1,485 1,245 1,233 12 90 149 1 0 1

1,549 1,451 1,404 46 97 1 1 0 1

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

27 18 9

271 255 16

271 255 16

16 0 16

16 0 16

16 0 16

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

80 70 11 2 0 1 -99 -178 9 5 1 3 -108 10 5 2 3

138 120 19 16 9 7 130 8 11 8 1 2 119 27 17 8 2

110 98 12 26 12 14 78 -6 12 10 1 1 66 38 22 14 1

157 152 5 36 22 14 122 1 23 22 1 1 98 59 44 14 1

148 136 11 38 28 10 230 120 19 16 0 3 211 57 44 10 3

197 185 12 51 42 9 -3 -148 23 21 0 1 -25 74 63 10 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

216 69 70 0 77 33

414 110 143 0 161 56

431 86 207 0 137 62

372 130 135 0 107 83

398 108 178 0 112 146

679 143 426 0 110 156

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

207 5 4

406 8 0

420 10 0

349 22 1

381 16 1

657 21 0

3,798 1,350 598 1,509 646 -156

4,249 1,616 699 1,789 771 -217

4,630 1,707 734 2,096 866 -408

5,884 2,140 889 2,610 1,038 -407

7,734 .. 889 .. 1,388 ..

78.6 27.9 2.0 0.8 0.3 60.9 5.1 3.5 52.2 40.2

67.8 25.8 2.3 0.8 0.3 70.3 5.2 2.8 54.8 40.1

65.5 24.2 3.5 1.4 0.5 77.5 5.0 2.6 76.7 52.0

69.4 25.2 2.6 0.9 0.3 69.9 4.8 10.1 71.6 49.8

.. 20.0 .. .. 0.3 89.6 .. 0.1 78.3 56.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

2,480 760 427 865 265 -12

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

60.0 18.4 1.4 1.2 0.4 58.1 3.7 13.7 57.1 25.1

30

ALBANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

330 330 305 115 110 190 151 25 0 0 0 0 0

936 921 899 426 368 473 186 22 0 0 15 0 15

982 971 950 440 396 510 204 22 0 0 11 0 11

1,008 995 974 581 518 392 341 22 0 0 13 0 13

1,245 1,233 1,210 739 640 470 424 23 0 0 12 0 12

1,451 1,404 1,381 876 748 505 465 23 0 0 46 0 46

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0 109 330 0

0 346 920 16

0 366 969 13

0 476 992 16

0 583 1,229 16

0 677 1,404 46

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

70 70 70 48 43 22 22 0 0 0 0 0 0

120 120 120 101 67 19 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

98 98 98 56 44 42 26 0 0 0 0 0 0

152 149 149 109 92 40 39 0 0 0 3 0 3

136 136 136 107 76 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0

185 149 149 113 84 36 36 0 0 0 36 0 36

.. ..

.. ..

0 43

0 64

0 34

0 79

0 61

0 67

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 8 2 1 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

12 8 8 3 1 5 2 0 0 0 4 0 4

22 20 20 8 2 12 8 0 0 0 2 0 2

28 26 26 13 3 13 7 0 0 0 2 0 2

42 36 35 15 5 20 14 1 0 0 6 0 6

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 1

0 3

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

5 5 4 1 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

8 7 7 4 3 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 1

10 10 9 6 3 4 3 0 0 0 1 0 1

22 17 17 6 3 11 9 0 0 0 5 0 5

16 15 15 8 5 7 6 0 0 0 1 0 1

21 20 20 12 7 8 7 0 0 0 1 0 1

.. ..

.. ..

0 1

0 2

0 3

0 3

0 4

0 5

31

ALBANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.5 0.0 0.0 60.9

.. 3.2 0.0 0.0 73.2

19.8 2.6 0.0 0.0 74.1

27.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 62.1

29.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 60.4

29.5 3.4 0.0 0.0 59.1

11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

75 0 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 180 0

15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

35 78 -31

23 122 78

366 230 116

64 -3 63

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 6 28 .. 225 0 .. 0 22 .. 0 21 .. 0 0 .. 0 2 .. 0 2 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 146 0 .. 30 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. -427 352 .. .. -99 130 .. .. 8 -35 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.3 25.2 7.6 50.6

3.5 29.7 10.5 54.5

3.2 29.3 9.0 54.8

1.2 32.1 9.4 70.0

1.8 27.1 11.9 66.6

2.3 19.8 7.6 52.6

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.4 25.3 7.5 50.4

3.5 29.7 10.5 54.5

3.2 29.3 9.0 54.8

1.2 32.1 9.4 70.0

1.8 27.1 11.9 66.6

2.3 19.8 7.6 52.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 3.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 22.7 0.0 0.0 .. .. 11.7 0.0 0.0 .. .. 55.9 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

49 25

66 29

60 31

72 32

77 31

91 30

97 28

90 25

48 23

56 27

57 30

66 31

70 30

83 29

90 27

84 25

29 10

30 10

26 11

28 10

29 10

30 10

32 9

30 8

19 13

26 17

31 19

38 20

41 20

54 20

57 18

54 17

1 2

10 2

3 2

6 1

6 1

8 1

8 0

6 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt as of 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004. Albania concluded a debt buyback operation in 1996.

32

ALGERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

18,260 16,398 16,398 0 0 1,862 0 0 0

28,149 26,688 26,688 0 670 791 0 0 0

33,042 31,303 31,303 0 1,478 261 3 0 3

25,272 23,332 23,332 0 1,718 222 0 0 0

22,587 20,870 20,870 0 1,518 199 0 0 0

22,881 21,443 21,336 107 1,330 108 0 0 0

23,573 22,440 21,881 559 988 146 0 0 0

21,987 20,913 20,249 664 643 431 0 0 0

0 0 0

1 0 0

1 0 1

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

3,905 3,905 0 3,477 3,477 0 531 103 1,526 1,398 0 128 -994 5,002 4,874 0 128

7,017 7,017 0 6,780 6,780 0 -811 -1,049 2,025 1,784 62 179 -2,836 8,804 8,564 62 179

4,157 3,683 475 2,419 2,248 171 1,361 -378 1,832 1,741 69 22 -471 4,250 3,989 240 22

1,215 1,215 0 2,815 2,722 93 -1,574 27 1,655 1,552 92 10 -3,228 4,470 4,274 185 10

1,037 1,037 0 2,964 2,823 141 -1,950 -23 1,419 1,334 76 9 -3,370 4,383 4,157 217 9

1,609 1,609 0 2,948 2,650 297 -1,430 -91 1,218 1,168 43 7 -2,649 4,166 3,819 340 7

1,923 1,923 0 3,227 2,788 439 -1,266 38 1,085 1,057 24 4 -2,352 4,312 3,845 463 4

1,963 1,963 0 4,721 4,350 372 -2,473 285 1,033 1,001 22 10 -3,506 5,754 5,351 393 10

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

469 428 0 0 41 44

283 237 0 0 45 106

1,505 1,435 0 0 70 101

-1,008 -1,508 438 0 62 76

-548 -1,786 1,196 0 42 77

118 -1,042 1,065 0 95 97

-161 -865 634 0 71 146

-1,407 -2,386 882 0 97 190

-1,126 1,398 198

-1,653 1,784 152

-236 1,741 0

-2,560 1,552 0

-1,882 1,334 0

-1,050 1,168 0

-1,218 1,057 0

-2,409 1,001 0

53,165 .. 670 .. 19,625 ..

53,683 .. 1,070 .. 25,151 ..

65,319 .. 1,750 .. 35,455 ..

81,049 .. 2,460 .. 45,692 ..

.. 42.5 .. .. 2.7 86.9 .. 0.9 12.2 17.7

.. 42.6 .. .. 2.3 109.9 .. 0.5 12.4 17.1

.. 36.1 .. .. 1.7 150.4 .. 0.6 12.9 17.5

.. 27.1 .. .. 1.3 207.8 .. 2.0 14.6 15.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

56,367 14,070 313 13,120 4,645 1,015

59,955 13,887 352 12,448 2,703 1,420

129.8 32.4 35.6 10.8 2.7 25.4 4.2 10.2 2.9 3.2

202.7 47.0 63.4 14.6 3.4 9.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 7.2

39,574 .. 1,120 .. 4,164 ..

50,745 .. 790 .. 13,556 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. 83.5 .. .. 4.6 12.6 .. 0.8 9.4 11.8

33

.. 49.8 .. .. 3.3 53.6 .. 0.9 12.4 16.3

ALGERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

16,398 16,398 3,837 582 14 3,255 509 12,560 680 4,240 0 0 0

26,688 26,688 5,866 2,031 76 3,835 784 20,822 1,420 5,851 0 0 0

31,303 31,303 15,685 3,915 317 11,770 2,792 15,618 0 4,653 0 0 0

23,332 23,332 17,480 4,123 453 13,357 2,688 5,851 0 2,763 0 0 0

20,870 20,870 16,197 3,999 436 12,198 2,320 4,673 0 2,219 0 0 0

21,443 21,336 16,368 3,912 417 12,456 2,427 4,968 0 2,212 107 0 107

22,440 21,881 16,864 4,137 498 12,727 2,538 5,017 0 1,967 559 0 559

20,913 20,249 15,599 3,422 564 12,177 2,656 4,650 0 1,586 664 0 664

479 0 16,398 0

1,208 0 26,608 80

2,049 0 31,214 89

1,425 0 23,210 122

1,329 0 20,758 112

1,203 0 21,193 250

1,056 0 21,708 732

909 0 20,071 843

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,905 3,905 562 184 4 379 2 3,343 500 1,023 0 0 0

7,017 7,017 1,835 612 9 1,223 282 5,182 0 206 0 0 0

3,683 3,683 1,596 932 169 664 501 2,087 0 222 0 0 0

1,215 1,215 795 349 41 446 152 420 0 0 0 0 0

1,037 1,037 464 340 50 124 79 573 0 3 0 0 0

1,609 1,532 495 390 33 105 80 1,037 0 251 77 0 77

1,923 1,472 636 566 128 70 62 836 0 29 451 0 451

1,963 1,679 799 337 120 462 444 879 0 10 285 0 285

148 0

300 0

554 0

58 0

83 0

70 0

50 0

40 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,477 3,477 674 143 1 531 115 2,802 71 851 0 0 0

6,780 6,780 1,174 312 6 862 97 5,606 16 1,330 0 0 0

2,248 2,248 671 454 13 217 42 1,577 278 220 0 0 0

2,722 2,722 1,056 349 53 707 223 1,666 0 458 0 0 0

2,823 2,823 1,281 524 66 757 226 1,542 0 391 0 0 0

2,650 2,590 1,497 642 61 855 234 1,093 0 367 60 0 60

2,788 2,777 1,546 530 54 1,015 263 1,231 0 394 11 0 11

4,350 4,134 2,706 1,219 54 1,487 431 1,428 0 419 216 0 216

42 0

130 0

260 0

172 0

177 0

200 0

202 0

189 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,398 1,398 271 49 1 222 20 1,127 42 445 0 0 0

1,784 1,784 312 117 6 195 17 1,472 105 526 0 0 0

1,741 1,741 823 251 8 572 82 917 13 251 0 0 0

1,552 1,552 1,131 297 17 834 108 421 0 153 0 0 0

1,334 1,334 1,011 248 23 764 96 322 0 122 0 0 0

1,168 1,164 966 304 17 662 87 198 0 68 5 0 5

1,057 1,055 875 253 18 622 87 180 0 46 3 0 3

1,001 984 813 217 25 596 78 171 0 40 17 0 17

30 0

73 0

137 0

128 0

119 0

104 0

85 0

60 0

34

ALGERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 16.9 0.8 1.3 37.1

.. 15.1 1.5 0.8 33.5

.. 13.1 0.9 0.7 38.0

.. 14.5 1.0 0.5 44.7

30.0 12.6 1.3 0.7 46.5

32.9 13.1 1.4 0.9 42.7

37.7 12.8 1.7 0.9 37.3

41.8 11.1 2.0 1.0 36.4

0 0 5,096 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,405 0 0 0 0 529 0 0 0 0 3,875 0 0 0 0 380 0 0 0 0 68 0 0 0 0 312 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,368 912 2,809 -2,725 -2,685 531 -811 1,361 -1,574 -1,950 1,751 1,669 687 -1,144 -916 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

294 -1,430 1,687

692 -1,266 1,958

-1,586 -2,473 925

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.4 11.5 5.1 8.3

8.4 9.1 2.5 6.9

6.5 10.8 2.8 14.9

6.2 11.1 3.0 16.8

3.2 12.0 3.2 31.5

2.9 14.8 3.9 35.5

2.6 10.0 2.4 29.9

3.6 12.0 2.3 28.3

8.1 13.0 3.7 14.9

7.0 16.8 4.0 19.5

6.2 11.7 3.3 17.1

6.2 14.9 4.1 20.8

4.3 18.5 5.9 35.7

2.9 22.4 6.5 49.8

1.9 14.3 3.8 43.0

2.5 12.7 2.4 35.8

8.5 8.9 7.1 6.2 2.8 3.0 11.4 6.5 8.9 7.2 9.7 7.8 5.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.5 7.8 2.8 10.4 12.6 30.1 22.5 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.2 6.7 1.3 20.1

4.3 11.5 2.3 23.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,328 881

3,046 769

3,000 645

3,146 515

3,145 375

2,020 246

1,904 155

477 90

2,046 696

1,985 622

2,148 532

2,400 430

2,482 315

1,647 207

1,654 128

309 70

1,310 540

1,499 488

1,746 415

1,983 328

2,112 229

1,303 136

1,391 70

87 22

737 155

486 134

402 117

417 102

370 85

343 71

262 58

222 48

1,281 185

1,062 147

852 113

747 85

662 60

374 39

250 27

168 20

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt, on long-term private nonguaranteed debt, and on short-term debt as of 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004 and the commercial bank agreement signed in July 1996.

35

ANGOLA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

8,592 7,603 7,603 0 0 989 204 52 152

11,500 9,543 9,543 0 0 1,958 1,232 276 956

9,408 8,085 8,085 0 0 1,323 874 252 622

9,234 7,783 7,783 0 0 1,451 1,006 266 740

9,189 7,981 7,981 0 0 1,208 961 287 674

9,316 8,194 8,194 0 0 1,122 938 351 587

9,521 8,631 8,631 0 0 890 705 433 272

.. .. ..

496 86 410

4,190 1,098 3,093

2,853 735 2,118

3,353 866 2,487

3,413 941 2,472

3,567 1,065 2,502

2,233 1,138 1,095

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

862 862 0 183 183 0 977 298 143 100 0 43 834 326 283 0 43

550 550 0 332 332 0 -90 -308 132 79 0 53 -222 464 411 0 53

1,045 1,045 0 1,530 1,530 0 -733 -248 175 149 0 26 -909 1,705 1,680 0 26

1,063 1,063 0 1,384 1,384 0 -325 -4 147 125 0 22 -472 1,531 1,509 0 22

822 822 0 1,285 1,285 0 -661 -198 159 140 0 19 -819 1,443 1,425 0 19

1,731 1,731 0 1,193 1,193 0 475 -63 166 159 0 6 310 1,358 1,352 0 6

2,506 2,506 0 1,875 1,875 0 632 1 175 169 0 7 457 2,050 2,044 0 7

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

536 679 -335 0 192 36

1,018 218 472 0 328 73

600 -485 879 0 206 52

2,037 -321 2,145 0 213 63

1,545 -463 1,672 0 336 68

4,455 538 3,505 0 412 84

2,438 631 1,444 0 363 72

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

122 100 314

553 79 386

-478 149 929

985 125 927

304 140 1,100

3,033 159 1,264

319 169 1,950

7,449 8,222 0 7,454 1,198 796

7,375 6,760 0 8,281 732 -1,431

9,194 8,552 0 8,734 376 -150

12,098 9,722 0 10,540 634 -720

17,255 13,831 0 13,151 1,374 686

114.4 126.3 20.7 2.1 2.4 12.7 1.9 14.1 19.0 3.1

136.6 125.2 22.7 2.2 2.0 7.9 1.1 15.7 17.1 3.0

107.4 100.0 16.9 1.9 1.7 4.1 0.5 13.2 18.0 3.4

95.8 77.0 14.0 1.7 1.4 6.8 0.7 12.0 18.5 3.7

68.8 55.2 14.8 1.3 1.0 14.4 1.3 9.3 23.4 4.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

8,214 4,003 0 4,161 .. -236

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

214.6 104.6 8.1 3.6 1.7 .. .. 11.5 13.9 0.7

3,688 3,852 0 4,302 213 -295

4. DEBT INDICATORS 298.6 311.9 12.0 3.4 3.6 1.9 0.6 17.0 13.0 1.7

36

ANGOLA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

7,603 7,603 1,839 57 20 1,782 1,177 5,765 0 143 0 0 0

9,543 9,543 2,226 191 119 2,035 1,371 7,316 0 873 0 0 0

8,085 8,085 2,703 294 253 2,409 1,538 5,382 0 2,625 0 0 0

7,783 7,783 2,440 276 253 2,164 1,328 5,343 0 2,679 0 0 0

7,981 7,981 2,893 316 292 2,577 1,366 5,088 0 2,248 0 0 0

8,194 8,194 3,099 349 323 2,750 1,403 5,095 0 2,678 0 0 0

8,631 8,631 3,435 379 367 3,055 1,857 5,196 0 3,396 0 0 0

.. .. .. ..

0 0 7,599 5

0 81 9,513 29

0 226 8,059 26

0 228 7,757 26

0 265 7,954 26

0 291 8,170 24

0 318 8,618 12

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

862 862 169 5 4 164 54 693 0 17 0 0 0

550 550 119 30 30 89 33 431 0 396 0 0 0

1,045 1,045 34 24 24 10 10 1,011 0 1,010 0 0 0

1,063 1,063 16 13 12 3 3 1,047 0 1,046 0 0 0

822 822 21 21 21 1 1 801 0 800 0 0 0

1,731 1,731 16 10 5 7 7 1,714 0 1,712 0 0 0

2,506 2,506 25 25 24 0 0 2,481 0 2,366 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 30

0 24

0 11

0 21

0 5

0 19

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

183 183 59 4 0 56 1 123 0 8 0 0 0

332 332 24 2 0 22 3 308 0 108 0 0 0

1,530 1,530 268 27 4 241 213 1,262 0 1,149 0 0 0

1,384 1,384 337 6 1 331 302 1,046 0 986 0 0 0

1,285 1,285 51 6 3 45 2 1,234 0 1,168 0 0 0

1,193 1,193 107 6 4 101 20 1,085 0 851 0 0 0

1,875 1,875 681 9 7 673 463 1,194 0 942 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 1

0 3

0 4

0 6

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

100 100 19 2 0 16 1 81 0 5 0 0 0

79 79 12 1 0 12 7 67 0 33 0 0 0

149 149 36 28 4 8 2 113 0 93 0 0 0

125 125 9 4 2 5 1 116 0 106 0 0 0

140 140 10 3 2 7 1 130 0 115 0 0 0

159 159 14 3 2 11 1 145 0 123 0 0 0

169 169 18 4 4 14 1 151 0 86 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 2

0 1

0 2

0 2

0 3

37

ANGOLA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.3 1.4 0.7 80.7

.. 0.3 0.9 0.1 81.0

.. 0.5 1.0 0.1 86.3

7.2 0.4 1.0 0.1 86.7

8.4 0.4 1.0 0.0 85.4

7.3 0.5 1.1 0.0 86.1

10.7 0.4 1.1 0.0 84.3

252 437 0 0 53 0 0 0 160 360 1 0 16 0 0 0 143 360 1 0 43 70 0 0 8 0 0 0 35 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. 1,303 207 -891 -174 .. 977 -90 -733 -325 .. 150 76 -78 -51 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0

196 138 5 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

985 0 681 656 26 254 243 11 159 40 2 0

-45 -661 154

127 475 189

205 632 79

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

6.9 10.2 2.6 14.3

8.1 8.7 0.4 5.4

4.9 4.3 1.6 11.4

5.0 4.0 0.5 9.2

5.1 3.6 1.1 9.2

3.5 6.5 0.8 16.4

1.8 8.8 1.2 28.0

.. .. .. ..

5.7 14.1 3.7 22.0

8.1 9.9 0.4 6.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 49.6 10.1 83.0

0.8 41.7 10.1 81.0

1.2 15.7 3.5 50.1

5.2 2.9 0.9 8.1

3.6 5.0 0.4 13.6

2.1 5.9 0.1 18.6

.. 7.7 8.1 5.0 5.0 .. 7.7 8.6 3.1 4.0 .. 1.8 0.4 1.3 0.5 .. 9.1 5.4 9.1 9.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,188 201

993 172

901 145

937 117

705 93

491 72

250 60

245 52

177 63

139 64

166 64

208 61

235 57

231 51

198 46

197 41

168 60

130 61

158 61

200 58

227 53

222 48

189 42

186 38

8 4

8 4

8 3

8 3

8 3

9 3

9 3

11 3

1,012 138

854 107

735 81

729 56

470 36

260 20

52 14

48 11

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are actual, based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004. In late 1996 Angola reached a debt restructuring agreement with the Russian Federation, receiving an upfront discount of 70 percent on the stock and interest arrears and a rescheduling of the remainder over 20 years.

38

ARGENTINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

50,946 41,902 37,327 4,575 2,312 6,731 778 5 774

62,233 48,676 46,876 1,800 3,083 10,473 7,590 132 7,458

98,482 70,997 54,930 16,066 6,131 21,355 0 0 0

147,403 114,031 88,122 25,909 5,056 28,315 0 0 0

154,050 120,070 88,442 31,628 13,976 20,004 4 0 4

149,890 120,461 91,982 28,479 14,340 15,089 5,473 165 5,307

166,086 127,579 99,192 28,387 15,523 22,984 12,637 356 12,282

169,247 127,661 103,850 23,811 14,091 27,496 17,496 533 16,963

128 19 109

4,372 224 4,147

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

8,540 471 8,069

17,258 1,167 16,091

29,103 2,349 26,754

4,584 3,584 1,000 1,017 1,017 0 876 -2,691 5,191 4,396 240 555 -4,316 6,209 5,413 240 555

1,587 1,150 437 3,443 2,745 697 -1,856 0 2,716 2,208 277 231 -4,571 6,158 4,953 975 231

11,319 8,954 2,365 3,542 3,057 484 21,962 14,185 5,324 4,322 274 727 16,639 8,865 7,379 759 727

21,126 19,032 2,094 15,700 14,421 1,280 4,326 -1,100 11,608 9,681 195 1,732 -7,282 27,308 24,101 1,475 1,732

13,448 3,048 10,399 10,772 9,591 1,181 -5,639 -8,315 4,858 3,405 416 1,036 -10,497 15,629 12,996 1,597 1,036

1,673 1,673 0 3,201 2,458 743 -1,912 -383 2,099 1,230 677 192 -4,011 5,300 3,688 1,420 192

11,155 5,554 5,601 11,946 6,202 5,743 -60 730 2,061 1,258 504 299 -2,121 14,007 7,460 6,247 299

6,282 2,813 3,469 10,023 4,519 5,504 -4,088 -347 2,354 1,542 554 258 -6,442 12,377 6,060 6,058 258

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

3,492 2,567 919 0 6 32

261 -1,595 1,836 0 21 71

12,633 5,897 5,609 1,091 36 84

11,833 4,611 10,418 -3,227 31 77

-4,319 -6,542 2,166 31 26 66

1,302 -785 2,149 -116 54 57

1,106 -648 1,652 65 37 67

2,320 -1,706 4,084 -86 28 67

-1,330 4,396 426

-2,584 2,208 637

6,181 4,322 2,129

-934 9,681 3,086

-9,121 3,405 1,397

-41 1,230 113

-1,210 1,258 1,058

-1,778 1,542 2,556

261,459 37,173 190 40,732 14,556 -3,290

94,557 32,133 189 23,851 10,492 8,673

121,626 37,091 256 29,773 14,157 7,658

144,130 43,462 288 40,531 19,660 3,353

414.4 58.9 42.0 13.1 1.9 9.4 4.3 13.0 0.9 11.6

466.5 158.5 16.5 6.5 2.2 7.0 5.3 10.1 0.8 11.2

447.8 136.6 37.8 5.6 1.7 8.5 5.7 13.8 0.8 9.9

389.4 117.4 28.5 5.4 1.6 11.6 5.8 16.2 0.8 9.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

83,672 10,329 27 11,281 4,703 -952

135,150 16,654 0 13,100 6,222 4,552

493.2 60.9 60.1 50.3 6.2 9.2 5.0 13.2 0.2 3.9

373.7 46.0 37.0 16.3 2.0 10.0 5.7 16.8 0.8 8.0

253,396 29,404 56 35,092 15,979 -5,175

276,656 38,645 86 47,987 25,152 -8,989

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

334.9 38.9 30.1 18.1 2.1 16.2 5.5 21.7 2.8 9.5

39

381.4 53.3 70.7 30.0 4.2 17.1 6.3 19.2 1.1 11.0

ARGENTINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

41,902 37,327 4,815 2,011 27 2,804 94 32,512 9,774 20,716 4,575 0 4,575

48,676 46,876 11,226 5,007 30 6,219 498 35,650 11,514 22,631 1,800 21 1,779

70,997 54,930 20,674 9,373 8 11,301 2,737 34,256 32,670 1,181 16,066 7,582 8,484

114,031 88,122 20,484 16,235 0 4,248 1,686 67,639 67,111 490 25,909 11,138 14,771

120,070 88,442 21,192 17,890 0 3,301 1,344 67,250 66,828 404 31,628 9,834 21,794

120,461 91,982 21,284 16,727 0 4,557 1,182 70,698 70,231 450 28,479 9,834 18,645

127,579 99,192 21,348 16,381 0 4,967 1,281 77,844 77,316 513 28,387 9,834 18,553

127,661 103,850 21,466 16,271 0 5,194 1,372 82,385 81,832 539 23,811 6,091 17,719

700 0 34,447 7,455

2,609 0 44,707 3,969

4,913 0 54,908 16,088

8,789 0 88,071 25,961

9,440 0 88,400 31,670

8,513 0 91,945 28,516

7,508 0 99,160 28,419

7,447 0 103,825 23,836

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,584 3,584 366 348 0 18 0 3,219 0 2,997 0 0 0

1,150 1,129 910 736 0 174 149 219 0 183 21 21 0

8,954 6,604 2,803 1,936 0 867 630 3,801 3,630 110 2,350 834 1,516

19,032 14,550 1,937 1,923 0 13 11 12,613 12,611 2 4,482 1,408 3,075

3,048 2,821 2,821 2,811 0 10 9 0 0 0 227 169 58

1,673 1,673 1,671 835 0 836 0 2 0 2 0 0 0

5,554 4,614 4,614 4,613 0 0 0 0 0 0 940 0 940

2,813 1,156 1,135 1,112 0 23 23 21 21 0 1,656 896 760

144 0

405 0

941 0

1,019 0

1,329 0

424 0

1,963 0

770 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,017 835 149 138 2 11 2 686 151 431 182 0 182

2,745 2,745 454 405 2 49 0 2,292 878 1,342 0 0 0

3,057 1,792 1,366 512 2 854 58 427 128 173 1,265 631 634

14,421 8,917 1,837 825 1 1,012 262 7,080 6,863 188 5,503 2,309 3,194

9,591 5,374 1,693 968 0 724 260 3,681 3,569 94 4,217 1,058 3,159

2,458 2,385 2,367 2,266 0 101 57 18 0 13 73 0 73

6,202 5,372 5,347 5,319 0 28 9 25 18 5 831 0 831

4,519 1,375 1,347 1,319 0 29 8 28 23 4 3,143 1,565 1,578

68 0

233 0

259 0

538 0

676 0

1,353 0

2,968 0

832 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4,396 3,430 138 133 1 4 1 3,292 174 3,072 966 0 966

2,208 2,064 456 375 1 81 0 1,608 973 621 144 0 144

4,322 3,437 1,375 617 0 758 113 2,062 1,960 72 885 641 244

9,681 7,640 1,589 1,256 0 334 92 6,051 5,909 137 2,041 1,109 932

3,405 2,174 1,477 1,208 0 268 67 698 568 127 1,231 1,033 198

1,230 1,174 1,078 1,006 0 71 24 96 0 95 56 0 56

1,258 1,139 1,006 983 0 22 1 134 132 1 118 0 118

1,542 693 665 660 0 5 2 28 27 1 848 675 173

46 0

181 0

306 0

701 0

713 0

517 0

382 0

233 0

40

ARGENTINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.3 0.4 1.5 79.6

.. 6.7 1.1 2.2 54.5

.. 9.3 0.2 1.6 59.6

.. 5.7 0.5 0.4 63.6

24.3 4.0 0.3 0.3 68.4

28.1 4.3 0.4 0.4 64.5

31.3 4.4 0.4 0.4 61.4

32.3 4.3 0.4 0.4 60.8

11,575 932 248 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10,784 512 198 0 0 302 381 158 0 0 10,481 131 40 0 0 431 420 50 0 0 184 382 22 0 0 246 38 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 467 7,202 863 3,434 191 0 1,232 0 2,745 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,089 -3,024 23,636 1,746 6,648 876 -1,856 21,962 4,326 -5,639 1,147 1,346 -160 -2,792 -2,528 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 586 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-4,160 -1,912 6,342

16,196 -60 6,424

3,162 -4,088 5,254

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

10.2 9.7 3.0 -1.6

6.4 17.1 3.5 19.3

6.9 11.2 4.7 14.1

9.9 11.7 11.5 -2.7

5.9 14.4 4.2 20.9

3.4 11.7 4.6 28.2

3.5 11.9 3.8 32.3

2.7 15.0 5.3 43.6

9.0 18.9 5.1 5.4

6.5 19.2 4.0 20.6

6.5 16.3 4.7 19.7

7.2 18.2 4.8 17.2

5.9 14.4 4.2 20.9

3.4 11.7 4.6 28.2

3.5 11.9 3.8 32.3

2.7 15.0 5.3 43.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.3 6.0 7.4 10.0 0.0 9.0 8.4 4.8 11.6 0.0 2.8 1.3 4.6 11.6 0.0 -2.2 14.1 7.2 -3.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

10,912 7,564

10,783 6,900

11,912 6,230

12,737 5,206

8,053 4,395

5,695 4,088

3,623 3,796

3,288 3,652

2,535 965

3,042 875

3,346 727

2,807 563

1,814 454

1,648 382

1,383 317

1,194 260

931 173

709 131

654 87

536 43

108 14

62 9

62 5

27 2

1,604 792

2,332 745

2,692 640

2,271 520

1,705 439

1,587 373

1,322 312

1,167 258

8,378 6,599

7,741 6,025

8,566 5,504

9,929 4,643

6,239 3,941

4,047 3,707

2,240 3,479

2,093 3,391

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are preliminary and based on partial reports provided by the country. Provincial debt, long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. The residual in debt stock-flow reconciliation is due to data revisions introduced in 1993. It includes the effects of the 2001 mega bond swap operation. Historical data revisions are due to the reversing process of converting to US$ the debt that was previously converted to Argentina Pesos.

41

ARMENIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

371 298 298 0 70 2 1 1 0

916 697 675 21 175 44 6 6 0

950 736 716 20 173 42 6 6 0

1,048 840 818 21 195 14 0 0 0

1,131 901 877 24 215 15 0 0 0

1,224 984 961 24 218 22 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

75 75 0

4 4 0

12 12 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

148 102 46 3 3 0 147 1 8 7 2 0 138 11 10 2 0

84 84 0 31 15 16 42 -11 15 9 3 2 28 46 25 19 2

96 83 13 33 24 9 61 -2 21 18 2 1 39 55 42 11 1

115 89 26 48 30 18 45 -23 22 19 1 1 23 70 49 20 1

123 95 28 83 56 26 41 1 13 11 1 0 28 96 67 28 0

132 104 28 96 61 35 44 7 11 9 1 1 32 107 70 36 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

215 100 25 0 91 39

235 69 104 0 61 94

173 59 70 1 44 88

241 60 111 0 71 123

212 38 121 0 53 94

325 43 219 1 62 99

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

209 7 0

203 9 22

152 18 4

209 19 13

166 11 35

178 9 139

1,964 560 87 1,017 331 -278

2,182 654 94 1,017 333 -200

2,455 844 131 1,155 440 -148

2,919 1,079 168 1,477 510 -189

3,120 1,327 336 1,788 576 -162

163.7 46.6 8.2 2.6 0.7 36.1 3.9 4.8 50.1 52.9

145.4 43.6 8.3 3.2 1.0 35.1 3.9 4.4 53.8 55.8

124.1 42.7 8.3 2.6 0.9 42.0 4.6 1.3 61.0 59.3

104.8 38.7 8.9 1.2 0.4 45.1 4.1 1.3 70.3 66.1

92.3 39.2 8.0 0.8 0.4 47.0 3.9 1.8 75.7 69.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,466 366 65 741 111 -218

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

101.1 25.3 3.1 2.3 0.6 30.0 1.8 0.6 28.6 56.1

42

ARMENIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

298 298 298 208 91 90 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

697 675 658 485 407 173 52 17 0 5 21 0 21

736 716 698 530 448 168 63 17 0 5 20 0 20

840 818 808 621 556 187 84 11 0 0 21 0 21

901 877 875 747 697 128 97 2 0 0 24 0 24

984 961 959 848 815 111 111 1 0 0 24 0 24

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5 91 298 0

8 388 675 21

7 428 716 20

8 530 818 21

8 662 877 24

8 773 961 24

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

102 102 102 102 88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

84 63 62 58 56 4 4 1 0 0 21 0 21

83 83 83 71 58 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

89 89 88 72 70 15 15 2 0 0 0 0 0

95 91 91 84 84 6 6 0 0 0 4 0 4

104 94 94 83 83 11 11 0 0 0 10 0 10

.. ..

.. ..

3 88

0 54

0 55

0 66

0 77

0 78

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 13 8 0 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 24 8 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 24 22 0 2 1 6 0 5 0 0 0

56 55 46 18 0 28 2 9 0 0 1 0 1

61 51 51 18 1 33 2 1 0 0 10 0 10

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

1 0

1 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 8 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 17 16 8 3 8 1 1 0 1 1 0 1

19 19 18 7 4 11 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

11 10 10 7 4 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

9 8 8 7 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

0 4

0 6

43

ARMENIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.6

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.3

5.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.4

5.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 92.1

7.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 90.5

7.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 87.7

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 61 -24

97 45 58

83 41 84

94 44 49

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 14 .. 0 0 .. 0 14 .. 0 14 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 156 15 .. .. 147 42 .. .. -6 -31 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1.3 32.6 9.2 72.4

0.8 35.7 10.2 79.1

0.8 36.0 9.4 74.7

0.8 38.0 10.3 80.0

0.8 39.7 10.4 80.7

0.8 39.4 10.2 80.3

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1.3 32.6 9.2 72.4

0.8 35.7 10.2 79.1

0.7 36.3 9.5 75.4

0.8 38.0 10.3 80.0

0.8 39.7 10.4 80.7

0.8 39.4 10.2 80.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 0.0 10.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 1.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 1.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

18 11

34 11

25 10

21 10

23 9

24 9

26 9

28 8

17 10

21 10

20 10

18 10

21 9

24 9

26 9

28 8

5 2

5 3

5 3

5 3

6 2

6 2

6 2

7 2

12 7

16 7

15 7

12 7

16 7

18 7

20 7

21 6

2 1

13 1

5 0

3 0

2 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are actual, based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004. In 1993, $30.8 million of technical credits were rescheduled with the Russian Federation, and in 1996, $34.0 million were rescheduled with bilateral creditors.

44

AZERBAIJAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

321 206 206 0 101 14 6 6 0

1,352 860 761 99 336 156 0 0 0

1,299 901 806 95 295 103 0 0 0

1,499 1,138 1,065 72 279 82 0 0 0

1,746 1,384 1,307 76 259 103 0 0 0

1,986 1,640 1,409 230 208 138 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

36 36 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

205 102 103 0 0 0 207 2 10 9 1 0 197 10 9 1 0

280 280 0 74 22 51 333 127 56 37 14 5 277 130 59 65 5

142 132 10 93 53 39 -4 -53 39 24 10 5 -44 132 77 50 5

268 258 10 145 96 49 102 -20 25 16 6 4 77 171 112 55 4

272 236 36 192 113 79 101 21 24 18 3 3 77 216 131 82 3

335 335 0 213 153 60 157 35 23 17 3 4 134 236 170 62 4

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

493 102 330 0 61 28

438 258 130 0 50 30

353 78 227 0 48 42

1,619 161 1,392 0 66 75

3,462 124 3,285 0 53 69

3,797 182 3,556 0 59 70

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

484 9 0

84 37 317

0 24 329

1,247 16 356

3,021 18 422

3,199 17 581

4,977 2,231 57 2,415 680 -168

5,375 2,514 104 2,539 897 -52

5,850 2,867 182 3,543 722 -768

6,833 3,263 171 5,264 821 -2,021

7,821 4,492 228 7,078 1,090 -2,589

60.6 27.2 5.8 2.5 1.1 50.3 3.4 11.6 29.4 24.0

51.7 24.2 5.3 1.6 0.7 69.0 4.2 7.9 35.4 26.7

52.3 25.6 5.9 0.9 0.4 48.1 2.4 5.5 46.1 29.1

53.5 25.5 6.6 0.7 0.4 47.0 1.9 5.9 53.8 32.7

44.2 25.4 5.2 0.5 0.3 54.9 1.8 6.9 57.7 32.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

3,039 795 3 1,306 121 -401

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

40.4 10.6 1.3 1.3 0.3 37.7 1.1 4.4 9.4 30.8

45

AZERBAIJAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

206 206 206 99 30 107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

860 761 649 324 232 324 166 113 0 65 99 0 99

901 806 717 347 254 371 206 88 0 52 95 0 95

1,138 1,065 944 435 336 508 355 121 0 98 72 0 72

1,384 1,307 1,199 571 456 628 484 108 0 97 76 0 76

1,640 1,409 1,318 644 533 674 614 91 0 89 230 0 230

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0 30 206 0

0 216 761 99

0 235 806 95

0 314 1,065 72

0 422 1,307 76

0 493 1,409 230

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

102 102 102 90 30 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

280 274 210 57 34 153 86 64 0 38 6 0 6

132 124 124 42 32 82 68 1 0 1 7 0 7

258 256 205 76 60 130 130 51 0 51 2 0 2

236 183 183 98 84 85 85 0 0 0 54 0 54

335 101 101 64 54 37 37 0 0 0 234 0 234

.. ..

.. ..

0 30

0 27

0 28

0 57

0 75

0 49

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 15 13 9 1 4 0 2 0 0 7 0 7

53 44 22 10 0 12 4 22 0 12 10 0 10

96 62 30 11 0 20 9 32 0 19 34 0 34

113 63 34 14 0 19 10 29 0 16 50 0 50

153 60 36 16 0 20 11 24 0 16 93 0 93

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

9 9 9 2 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

37 32 31 7 2 24 24 1 0 0 5 0 5

24 19 16 8 2 8 2 3 0 1 5 0 5

16 13 11 6 2 5 3 2 0 1 3 0 3

18 15 12 6 3 6 4 3 0 2 3 0 3

17 17 15 9 5 6 5 2 0 2 0 0 0

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 2

0 2

0 2

0 2

0 4

46

AZERBAIJAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4

.. 20.1 0.0 6.3 66.7

3.9 23.2 0.0 4.6 65.0

3.5 30.1 0.0 8.6 54.2

3.8 32.7 0.0 7.2 52.0

4.5 30.6 0.0 6.2 53.8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

87 0 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-53 -4 -44

200 102 80

247 101 119

240 157 60

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 208 279 .. .. 207 333 .. .. -7 -43 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1.4 32.2 9.4 71.8

5.8 17.2 3.3 28.1

1.4 33.4 9.9 72.8

0.8 34.8 10.3 78.8

1.6 31.8 8.4 68.6

2.5 16.2 4.5 41.4

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1.4 32.2 9.4 71.8

4.3 22.6 4.7 41.1

1.4 33.4 9.9 72.8

0.8 34.8 10.3 78.8

1.6 31.8 8.4 68.6

2.5 16.2 4.5 41.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 8.5 0.0 .. .. 0.0 7.3 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.8 0.0 .. .. 0.0 3.9 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

104 34

79 32

120 31

140 28

146 24

123 20

98 17

86 14

42 20

71 21

87 21

99 20

104 18

85 16

60 14

52 13

21 9

48 10

59 9

67 8

71 6

52 5

30 4

22 4

21 11

23 11

28 12

32 12

33 11

33 11

30 10

31 9

62 13

8 11

33 10

40 8

42 7

38 5

37 3

34 2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are preliminary based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

47

BANGLADESH (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

6,658 6,003 6,003 0 520 135 0 0 0

12,439 11,658 11,658 0 626 156 1 1 0

15,927 15,106 15,106 0 622 199 15 15 0

15,717 15,168 15,168 0 216 334 0 0 0

15,250 14,741 14,741 0 149 361 21 21 0

17,046 16,404 16,404 0 71 572 27 27 0

18,759 18,068 18,068 0 74 617 0 0 0

20,344 19,171 19,171 0 231 942 0 0 0

1 1 0

11 11 0

15 15 0

4 4 0

58 58 0

75 75 0

4 4 0

0 0 0

743 651 92 200 109 91 545 2 133 87 33 13 412 332 195 124 13

1,273 1,213 60 548 344 204 813 88 201 151 40 9 612 749 495 245 9

763 763 0 591 530 61 171 -1 189 176 3 10 -18 780 706 64 10

889 889 0 599 513 86 370 80 201 171 7 22 169 799 684 93 22

1,048 1,048 0 492 432 60 562 6 183 161 6 16 378 676 593 66 16

758 758 0 551 463 88 412 205 176 161 3 12 236 727 624 91 12

936 866 70 496 422 73 512 72 176 162 1 13 336 672 584 75 13

1,151 1,004 147 462 462 0 1,014 325 212 184 1 28 802 675 646 1 28

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,015 542 0 0 472 169

1,644 869 3 0 772 234

913 233 2 -15 693 293

1,249 376 280 1 592 212

1,294 616 79 -4 603 212

889 295 52 -1 543 215

1,191 444 268 2 478 248

1,816 542 449 4 822 216

928 87 0

1,492 151 0

737 176 0

929 171 149

958 161 175

599 161 129

852 162 178

1,386 184 247

48,635 9,008 2,105 10,017 1,306 -535

49,746 9,855 2,858 9,508 1,722 739

54,778 11,298 3,192 11,565 2,625 132

59,568 12,908 3,584 13,562 3,222 -279

169.3 31.4 7.5 2.0 0.4 8.6 1.6 2.4 93.4 70.2

173.0 34.3 7.4 1.8 0.4 10.1 2.2 3.4 92.8 71.0

166.0 34.2 5.9 1.6 0.3 14.0 2.7 3.3 93.2 72.4

157.6 34.2 5.2 1.6 0.4 15.8 2.9 4.6 91.1 72.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

21,990 1,781 502 2,918 356 -455

30,757 2,907 779 4,140 660 -398

373.7 30.3 18.7 7.4 0.6 5.3 1.5 2.0 86.5 42.8

427.9 40.4 25.8 6.9 0.7 5.3 1.9 1.3 90.7 51.8

39,097 5,903 1,202 7,790 2,376 -824

48,915 9,251 1,968 10,018 1,516 -306

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

269.8 40.7 13.2 3.2 0.5 14.9 3.7 1.3 92.9 60.8

48

169.9 32.1 8.6 2.2 0.4 9.6 1.8 2.1 94.8 69.9

BANGLADESH (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6,003 6,003 5,858 2,848 2,789 3,010 2,973 145 0 2 0 0 0

11,658 11,658 11,435 6,441 6,344 4,994 4,941 223 0 21 0 0 0

15,106 15,106 14,852 9,678 9,623 5,173 5,167 255 0 12 0 0 0

15,168 15,168 14,921 10,990 10,966 3,931 3,931 246 0 15 0 0 0

14,741 14,741 14,265 10,712 10,695 3,553 3,553 476 0 26 0 0 0

16,404 16,404 15,836 12,099 12,080 3,736 3,736 568 0 29 0 0 0

18,068 18,068 17,513 13,583 13,548 3,930 3,930 555 0 29 0 0 0

19,171 19,171 18,628 14,722 14,623 3,906 3,906 543 0 41 0 0 0

55 2,021 6,003 0

64 4,095 11,658 0

55 5,638 15,106 0

24 6,431 15,168 0

17 6,439 14,741 0

13 7,063 16,404 0

7 8,062 18,068 0

0 8,895 19,171 0

651 651 634 460 459 174 162 17 0 0 0 0 0

1,213 1,213 1,123 822 792 301 301 90 0 22 0 0 0

763 763 677 494 494 183 183 86 0 0 0 0 0

889 889 822 650 650 172 172 67 0 15 0 0 0

1,048 1,048 798 536 536 261 261 250 0 11 0 0 0

758 758 663 526 520 136 136 95 0 0 0 0 0

866 866 856 758 738 97 97 10 0 0 0 0 0

1,004 1,004 989 821 749 168 168 14 0 14 0 0 0

0 279

0 464

0 198

0 357

0 312

0 301

0 519

0 615

109 109 86 27 15 59 56 22 0 0 0 0 0

344 344 310 62 44 248 239 34 0 2 0 0 0

530 530 423 104 100 319 309 107 0 2 0 0 0

513 513 482 168 163 314 314 31 0 0 0 0 0

432 432 414 181 175 234 234 18 0 0 0 0 0

463 463 452 204 198 248 248 10 0 0 0 0 0

422 422 395 237 230 158 158 27 0 3 0 0 0

462 462 432 290 283 142 142 30 0 4 0 0 0

1 5

2 13

5 41

5 82

5 94

6 106

6 124

7 141

87 87 77 27 24 50 47 10 0 0 0 0 0

151 151 140 51 46 89 84 11 0 1 0 0 0

176 176 167 87 83 80 79 9 0 0 0 0 0

171 171 160 93 91 67 67 12 0 0 0 0 0

161 161 155 95 94 60 60 6 0 1 0 0 0

161 161 158 100 98 58 58 3 0 1 0 0 0

162 162 156 109 107 46 46 6 0 2 0 0 0

184 184 178 130 127 49 49 5 0 2 0 0 0

2 17

4 28

4 42

2 47

1 48

1 50

1 56

0 67

49

BANGLADESH (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 22.4 10.2 0.1 48.9

.. 24.8 5.0 0.1 48.1

.. 25.9 3.5 0.0 41.9

.. 20.4 3.0 0.0 44.7

0.5 18.4 3.0 0.0 47.8

0.6 17.5 2.6 0.0 48.1

0.7 17.0 2.3 0.0 50.1

0.6 16.0 2.0 0.0 50.1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 1,004 1,593 304 -850 -467 545 813 171 370 562 531 925 -244 -1,087 -1,042 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 103 13 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 146 16 0 0

1,796 412 1,166

1,712 512 1,546

1,585 1,014 695

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.5 37.6 9.4 70.5

1.8 34.1 9.2 68.5

1.9 38.2 10.0 69.5

2.6 24.9 6.8 54.2

2.0 26.2 6.5 57.4

1.4 33.6 8.5 70.6

1.2 31.9 8.3 70.3

1.0 36.3 9.5 76.0

1.3 39.5 9.7 73.3

1.1 37.6 10.2 76.1

1.9 38.2 10.0 69.5

2.4 28.2 7.4 59.2

1.2 31.9 8.2 68.7

1.3 33.9 8.6 71.2

1.2 32.1 8.4 70.8

1.0 36.4 9.5 76.3

3.7 5.4 0.0 3.3 3.6 3.3 14.7 14.1 0.0 13.0 14.0 15.5 5.2 3.5 0.0 4.8 3.2 3.1 37.5 25.0 0.0 36.4 33.6 37.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

2.7 4.7 1.5 19.3

3.0 17.3 5.8 45.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

863 213

815 221

827 229

876 226

864 218

875 209

888 199

899 187

645 187

669 198

723 209

777 209

791 205

801 198

814 190

827 181

346 57

343 53

342 49

339 45

309 40

288 36

266 32

251 28

299 131

326 145

382 160

438 164

481 165

513 163

548 159

576 153

218 26

146 22

104 19

99 16

73 13

74 11

74 9

72 6

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

50

BARBADOS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

457.2 354.9 354.9 0.0 47.9 54.4 6.4 0.3 6.2

683.0 504.1 504.1 0.0 0.7 178.1 0.2 0.2 0.0

473.8 371.5 371.5 0.0 37.1 65.2 0.2 0.2 0.0

548.2 548.2 548.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

700.7 700.7 700.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

712.2 712.2 712.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

721.2 721.2 721.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

702.5 702.5 702.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 0.0 2.1

0.7 0.7 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

71.4 71.4 0.0 23.8 23.8 0.0 53.6 6.0 27.8 20.0 3.6 4.1 25.8 51.6 43.8 3.6 4.1

90.6 90.6 0.0 92.2 88.4 3.8 18.8 20.4 48.6 39.3 0.4 8.9 -29.8 140.7 127.7 4.1 8.9

54.6 54.6 0.0 76.9 58.8 18.0 -147.2 -125.0 37.7 27.2 2.8 7.7 -184.9 114.5 86.0 20.9 7.7

125.3 125.3 0.0 22.3 22.3 0.0 103.0 0.0 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 63.1 62.2 62.2 0.0 0.0

183.0 183.0 0.0 24.3 24.3 0.0 158.7 0.0 44.2 44.2 0.0 0.0 114.5 68.5 68.5 0.0 0.0

35.6 35.6 0.0 37.4 37.4 0.0 -1.8 0.0 45.6 45.6 0.0 0.0 -47.4 83.0 83.0 0.0 0.0

32.0 32.0 0.0 38.7 38.7 0.0 -6.7 0.0 45.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 -51.6 83.7 83.7 0.0 0.0

17.4 17.4 0.0 45.2 45.2 0.0 -27.8 0.0 42.6 42.6 0.0 0.0 -70.4 87.8 87.8 0.0 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

99.1 47.6 49.0 0.0 2.5 2.9

113.4 2.1 110.0 0.0 1.3 2.4

9.0 -4.2 12.0 0.0 1.2 1.9

123.6 103.0 19.0 0.0 1.5 1.2

178.4 158.7 19.0 0.0 0.7 3.4

17.6 -1.8 17.0 1.1 1.3 2.9

147.9 -6.7 58.0 94.7 1.8 2.4

25.5 -27.8 50.0 0.3 3.3 3.2

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

74.6 20.0 4.5

65.0 39.3 9.1

-25.0 27.2 6.8

66.6 40.0 17.0

115.8 44.2 18.4

-46.9 45.6 18.9

82.0 45.0 20.9

-93.2 42.6 76.1

2,463.1 1,512.9 118.0 1,617.1 690.4 -110.6

2,482.5 1,459.8 109.0 1,620.3 668.5 -167.6

2,573.5 1,601.6 113.0 1,766.5 737.9 -169.1

2,686.3 1,692.3 109.3 2,017.0 579.9 -336.6

46.3 28.4 4.5 2.9 1.8 98.5 5.1 0.0 12.3 39.2

48.8 28.7 5.7 3.1 1.8 93.9 5.0 0.0 13.5 41.2

45.0 28.0 5.2 2.8 1.7 102.3 5.0 0.0 14.2 43.0

41.5 26.2 5.2 2.5 1.6 82.5 3.4 0.0 14.3 42.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,189.4 821.9 8.0 767.3 141.8 59.6

1,699.9 928.9 38.0 953.5 117.5 -7.8

55.6 38.4 6.3 3.4 2.3 31.0 2.2 11.9 19.0 24.3

73.5 40.2 15.1 5.2 2.9 17.2 1.5 26.1 13.2 26.5

1,809.2 1,202.7 53.0 1,150.4 219.1 43.6

2,495.4 1,530.9 102.0 1,670.1 472.7 -145.0

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

39.4 26.2 9.5 3.1 2.1 46.2 2.3 13.8 11.6 34.0

51

35.8 22.0 4.1 2.6 1.6 86.2 3.4 0.0 16.0 49.4

BARBADOS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

354.9 354.9 168.7 110.9 52.1 57.7 34.9 186.2 36.1 102.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

504.1 504.1 246.0 180.9 56.8 65.1 33.7 258.2 69.2 163.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

371.5 371.5 186.0 160.9 46.0 25.2 8.7 185.5 78.9 104.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

548.2 548.2 356.1 271.1 83.0 85.0 4.8 192.1 140.0 44.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

700.7 700.7 358.8 274.7 81.7 84.1 4.3 341.9 290.0 43.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

712.2 712.2 376.7 293.3 92.3 83.4 4.0 335.5 280.0 48.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

721.2 721.2 392.8 310.1 98.8 82.6 3.6 328.4 270.0 53.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

702.5 702.5 382.4 300.5 97.3 81.9 3.3 320.1 260.0 57.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

31.4 0.0 341.6 13.2

36.0 0.0 499.5 4.6

19.3 0.0 371.3 0.2

13.9 0.0 548.2 0.0

11.2 0.0 700.7 0.0

9.8 0.0 712.2 0.0

11.5 0.0 721.2 0.0

11.5 0.0 702.5 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

71.4 71.4 18.3 14.4 3.1 3.9 3.2 53.1 21.1 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

90.6 90.6 33.9 21.9 1.7 12.1 2.5 56.6 0.0 56.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

54.6 54.6 14.6 12.9 0.3 1.7 0.4 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

125.3 125.3 19.3 19.3 5.7 0.0 0.0 106.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

183.0 183.0 29.0 29.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 153.9 150.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

35.6 35.6 34.0 32.0 15.1 2.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

32.0 32.0 31.4 31.4 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.7 0.0

5.4 0.0

3.5 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.7 0.0

3.6 0.0

1.9 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

23.8 23.8 8.4 6.0 1.1 2.4 0.6 15.4 0.0 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

88.4 88.4 17.8 13.2 2.2 4.6 0.9 70.6 44.1 20.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

58.8 58.8 21.4 16.3 3.7 5.1 1.7 37.4 5.3 27.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

22.3 22.3 21.7 20.0 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

24.3 24.3 21.4 20.5 3.9 0.9 0.5 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

37.4 37.4 24.5 21.8 4.6 2.7 0.3 12.9 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

38.7 38.7 25.9 25.1 5.2 0.7 0.3 12.9 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

45.2 45.2 32.4 31.6 9.4 0.7 0.3 12.9 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.6 0.0

7.1 0.0

4.7 0.0

3.0 0.0

2.6 0.0

2.1 0.0

1.9 0.0

1.9 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

20.0 20.0 8.9 6.0 1.4 2.9 0.9 11.1 1.4 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

39.3 39.3 14.4 11.5 1.6 2.9 0.4 24.9 8.1 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.2 27.2 12.4 10.4 1.4 1.9 0.2 14.9 3.1 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

40.0 40.0 25.7 17.6 3.9 8.1 0.0 14.2 8.5 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

44.2 44.2 23.4 16.4 2.3 7.0 0.0 20.8 15.3 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

45.6 45.6 19.0 14.3 2.2 4.7 0.0 26.6 20.8 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

45.0 45.0 18.9 14.8 2.4 4.1 0.0 26.0 19.7 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

42.6 42.6 16.9 13.0 2.4 3.9 0.0 25.7 18.7 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 0.0

2.9 0.0

1.6 0.0

1.4 0.0

1.3 0.0

0.9 0.0

0.7 0.0

0.6 0.0

52

BARBADOS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.0 4.6 0.0 52.8

.. 13.7 13.6 0.0 35.3

.. 10.5 12.6 0.0 36.8

.. 0.0 8.2 0.0 65.3

0.0 0.0 6.2 0.0 72.4

0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 70.9

0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 69.0

0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 68.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 66.1 39.4 -143.5 104.3 152.5 53.6 18.8 -147.2 103.0 158.7 2.8 21.0 0.7 2.8 -6.9 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.4 -1.8 12.6

9.1 -6.7 14.3

-18.7 -27.8 8.8

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.0 11.8 5.1 12.3

10.2 18.6 15.3 -5.5

10.0 10.8 6.2 -1.1

5.7 9.9 9.1 24.3

7.0 19.7 17.9 24.2

5.4 20.0 5.0 29.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 30.7 7.1 41.2

6.5 15.4 4.9 21.7

6.3 18.1 3.6 20.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 17.5 4.5 29.0

5.4 20.0 5.0 29.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.9 11.7 10.4 5.7 7.3 6.2 19.8 10.0 9.9 20.0 4.6 19.3 6.5 9.1 20.0 3.8 -16.1 -3.6 24.3 23.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

65.3 43.8

59.3 41.6

56.5 39.7

56.0 37.5

33.9 35.4

132.4 32.0

28.6 26.8

27.7 25.6

53.2 18.9

59.3 17.5

56.5 15.5

56.0 13.4

33.9 11.3

32.4 9.9

28.6 8.7

27.7 7.5

11.5 5.1

22.2 4.1

22.2 2.8

22.2 1.4

0.7 0.3

0.7 0.2

0.5 0.1

0.5 0.1

41.7 13.8

37.1 13.4

34.3 12.8

33.9 12.0

33.2 11.0

31.7 9.8

28.1 8.5

27.2 7.4

12.2 24.9

0.0 24.1

0.0 24.1

0.0 24.1

0.0 24.1

100.0 22.1

0.0 18.1

0.0 18.1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on World Bank Staff estimates.

53

BELARUS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,694 1,302 1,301 0 283 110 19 0 19

2,043 690 689 1 114 1,239 14 12 2

2,056 666 664 2 81 1,309 5 2 2

2,434 750 749 1 56 1,629 1 0 1

2,723 723 710 13 26 1,975 2 2 0

3,717 772 744 29 9 2,936 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

140 0 140

29 28 1

10 8 2

1 0 1

19 19 0

1 0 1

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

441 258 182 108 108 0 369 36 74 59 10 4 295 182 167 10 4

144 144 0 190 135 56 -123 -76 106 38 7 61 -230 297 173 63 61

135 135 0 173 144 30 41 80 107 46 5 57 -66 281 190 34 57

152 152 0 154 124 30 322 324 90 36 2 51 232 244 160 32 51

58 58 0 171 139 33 141 254 87 32 1 54 56 258 170 34 54

231 231 0 215 198 17 978 963 111 37 0 74 867 326 235 18 74

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

302 150 15 0 136 27

155 9 119 1 27 14

112 -9 96 3 22 19

295 28 247 1 19 24

112 -81 172 3 18 18

222 32 169 1 21 26

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

243 59 0

113 38 5

61 46 5

242 36 17

55 32 26

148 37 38

12,376 8,503 149 9,052 391 -394

14,607 9,350 140 9,860 687 -311

17,790 11,699 222 12,345 637 -424

22,876 15,813 244 17,141 837 -1,043

24.2 16.6 3.3 1.3 0.9 19.0 0.5 63.7 0.0 8.9

26.0 16.7 2.6 1.0 0.6 28.2 0.8 66.9 0.0 6.8

23.3 15.3 2.2 0.7 0.5 23.4 0.6 72.5 0.0 5.4

23.5 16.2 2.1 0.7 0.5 22.5 0.6 79.0 0.0 3.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

13,967 5,300 29 5,805 377 -458

12,752 7,666 139 8,160 350 -338

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

32.0 12.1 3.4 1.4 0.5 22.3 0.8 6.5 0.0 11.1

54

26.6 16.0 3.9 1.4 0.8 17.2 0.5 60.6 0.0 10.6

BELARUS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,302 1,301 769 188 0 582 477 532 0 46 0 0 0

690 689 400 217 0 183 83 289 0 56 1 0 1

666 664 351 183 0 168 81 314 0 45 2 0 2

750 749 397 166 0 231 118 352 0 64 1 0 1

723 710 381 146 0 234 127 329 0 48 13 0 13

772 744 480 124 0 356 127 264 0 35 29 0 29

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

116 0 1,301 0

105 0 689 1

91 0 656 10

89 0 730 20

84 0 695 28

73 0 732 40

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

258 258 131 77 0 54 20 127 0 20 0 0 0

144 143 25 25 0 0 0 118 0 48 0 0 0

135 134 49 11 0 38 0 85 0 27 1 0 1

152 152 90 9 0 81 40 62 0 23 0 0 0

58 47 14 1 0 14 13 33 0 2 11 0 11

231 197 181 2 0 179 4 16 0 0 34 0 34

.. ..

.. ..

11 0

6 0

6 0

4 0

1 0

2 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

108 108 84 70 0 15 0 24 0 0 0 0 0

135 134 52 49 0 4 1 82 0 28 1 0 1

144 143 65 36 0 29 2 78 0 36 0 0 0

124 124 55 40 0 15 4 69 0 8 0 0 0

139 138 45 35 0 10 4 93 0 20 0 0 0

198 179 87 29 0 58 4 93 0 13 19 0 19

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

14 0

14 0

14 0

15 0

16 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

59 59 32 23 0 10 1 26 0 1 0 0 0

38 38 18 17 0 2 2 19 0 4 0 0 0

46 46 28 14 0 14 2 18 0 2 0 0 0

36 36 17 11 0 6 2 20 0 4 0 0 0

32 32 13 9 0 4 3 19 0 3 0 0 0

37 36 16 7 0 8 4 21 0 3 1 0 1

.. ..

.. ..

8 0

6 0

5 0

5 0

4 0

3 0

55

BELARUS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.3 0.0 0.7 50.8

.. 2.2 0.0 0.1 48.9

30.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 53.2

30.6 2.2 0.0 0.0 55.5

32.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 52.3

25.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 61.7

29 7 17 17 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0

3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 41 -22

378 322 57

289 141 63

994 978 22

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 50 .. 0 49 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 398 -156 .. .. 369 -123 .. .. 28 -26 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.7 14.0 4.8 25.8

7.0 3.7 1.5 5.9

3.9 7.3 2.3 21.0

2.6 10.6 2.5 28.7

3.8 5.1 0.6 14.2

3.4 6.7 2.0 21.7

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.1 16.0 5.6 30.6

6.8 5.9 2.4 9.9

3.0 8.3 3.3 27.3

3.5 16.6 4.6 39.3

0.0 4.6 0.8 22.3

3.4 6.0 1.8 19.6

.. .. 8.1 7.2 4.7 1.8 .. .. 5.8 2.5 6.4 5.1 .. .. 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.6 .. .. 5.9 3.6 15.2 19.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.9 5.1 0.6 14.0

3.5 8.4 2.4 26.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

187 26

161 22

137 16

132 11

75 8

65 5

17 4

17 3

96 15

68 13

86 10

69 7

52 5

50 3

9 2

8 2

52 10

41 10

63 8

48 6

46 4

46 3

5 2

5 2

44 5

27 4

23 2

21 1

6 1

4 1

4 1

3 0

90 11

93 8

51 6

63 4

23 2

15 2

8 1

8 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are actual, based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data have been revised from 1996, based on data from the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus. Rescheduling: In 1993, $385 million of technical credits were rescheduled with the Russian Federation.

56

BELIZE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

118.1 94.3 94.3 0.0 10.5 13.3 0.3 0.2 0.0

142.7 136.2 136.2 0.0 0.4 6.1 0.9 0.4 0.5

255.2 219.4 219.4 0.0 0.0 35.7 0.6 0.3 0.3

615.0 565.0 556.6 8.4 0.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

716.3 665.5 648.7 16.8 0.0 50.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

857.7 812.7 779.6 33.1 0.0 45.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

1,058.5 978.5 942.4 36.1 0.0 80.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

958.9 958.6 925.0 33.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1

0.2 0.2 0.0

2.0 0.8 1.2

1.0 1.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 0.0 1.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

29.0 24.2 4.8 10.1 10.1 0.0 15.9 -3.0 7.5 5.9 0.4 1.2 8.5 17.5 15.9 0.4 1.2

17.9 17.9 0.0 12.1 9.0 3.0 6.6 0.8 6.2 5.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 18.3 14.6 3.2 0.4

31.2 31.2 0.0 25.4 25.4 0.0 27.0 21.2 11.2 9.9 0.0 1.4 15.7 36.6 35.3 0.0 1.4

222.9 222.9 0.0 41.2 41.2 0.0 180.8 -1.0 35.0 31.6 0.0 3.4 145.8 76.1 72.8 0.0 3.4

167.3 167.3 0.0 48.0 48.0 0.0 120.1 0.8 48.3 46.0 0.0 2.3 71.8 96.3 94.0 0.0 2.3

244.5 244.5 0.0 139.3 139.3 0.0 99.3 -5.8 49.2 47.5 0.0 1.7 50.2 188.4 186.8 0.0 1.7

258.1 258.1 0.0 90.5 90.5 0.0 202.6 35.0 67.2 65.6 0.0 1.7 135.4 157.7 156.1 0.0 1.7

220.2 220.2 0.0 257.4 257.4 0.0 -117.2 -80.0 74.8 73.0 0.0 1.8 -192.1 332.2 330.4 0.0 1.8

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

19.7 14.1 3.7 0.0 1.8 6.9

30.2 8.8 17.0 0.0 4.4 12.9

34.4 5.8 21.0 0.0 7.6 11.9

215.8 181.8 23.0 0.0 11.0 4.6

202.0 119.3 60.0 0.0 22.7 6.3

138.9 105.2 24.0 0.0 9.7 5.1

175.1 167.6 -1.0 0.0 8.5 4.0

96.4 -37.2 127.6 0.0 5.6 5.1

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

12.3 5.9 1.5

17.1 5.6 7.5

16.6 9.9 8.0

153.7 31.6 30.5

122.7 46.0 33.3

58.4 47.5 33.0

78.6 65.6 31.0

-19.1 73.0 42.4

792.6 452.2 21.0 673.8 112.0 -189.9

850.5 485.1 17.0 700.2 114.5 -182.6

999.3 514.9 21.0 751.1 84.7 -207.4

1,062.4 531.6 25.4 744.5 48.3 -182.3

158.4 90.4 21.3 10.7 6.1 15.6 2.0 7.1 13.9 23.0

176.8 100.8 38.8 10.1 5.8 13.4 2.0 5.3 11.9 21.6

205.6 105.9 30.6 13.1 6.7 8.0 1.4 7.6 8.7 19.2

180.4 90.3 62.5 14.1 7.0 5.0 0.8 0.0 12.8 22.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

199.3 151.8 21.0 154.5 14.8 9.1

406.3 268.9 18.0 269.2 69.8 15.4

77.8 59.2 11.6 4.9 3.8 12.5 1.2 11.2 43.9 30.2

53.1 35.1 6.8 2.3 1.5 48.9 3.1 4.3 56.6 40.2

598.0 314.1 14.0 350.6 37.6 -17.2

775.2 469.8 22.0 662.7 122.9 -156.0

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

81.2 42.7 11.7 3.6 1.9 14.7 1.3 14.0 36.4 35.1

57

130.9 79.3 16.2 7.4 4.5 20.0 2.2 8.1 17.1 22.6

BELIZE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

94.3 94.3 78.5 35.7 22.9 42.9 28.9 15.8 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

136.2 136.2 118.0 57.4 30.0 60.6 50.9 18.2 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

219.4 219.4 175.0 89.5 43.0 85.5 49.9 44.5 0.0 38.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

565.0 556.6 228.4 139.1 39.7 89.3 65.4 328.2 74.9 244.7 8.4 0.0 8.4

665.5 648.7 245.7 164.7 40.2 81.0 59.5 402.9 71.9 317.5 16.8 0.0 16.8

812.7 779.6 251.0 185.3 43.6 65.7 58.1 528.5 210.9 303.3 33.1 0.0 33.1

978.5 942.4 260.5 203.7 45.6 56.8 46.6 681.9 307.9 371.4 36.1 0.0 36.1

958.6 925.0 297.0 219.8 53.2 77.2 69.4 628.0 304.9 321.1 33.6 0.0 33.6

5.4 0.0 94.3 0.0

17.5 0.0 136.2 0.0

29.5 0.0 219.4 0.0

40.0 0.0 556.6 8.4

43.2 0.0 648.7 16.8

44.4 0.0 779.6 33.1

41.7 0.0 942.4 36.1

38.7 0.0 925.0 33.6

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

24.2 24.2 21.4 4.7 0.3 16.8 13.6 2.7 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.9 17.9 13.2 5.8 2.2 7.5 4.6 4.6 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

31.2 31.2 25.8 12.4 3.4 13.4 3.5 5.3 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

222.9 218.1 26.6 22.3 3.9 4.3 1.5 191.5 86.0 95.7 4.8 0.0 4.8

167.3 158.9 34.9 32.9 3.7 2.1 1.0 124.0 0.0 117.0 8.4 0.0 8.4

244.5 228.2 31.2 27.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 197.0 143.0 48.0 16.3 0.0 16.3

258.1 253.1 36.6 29.6 2.6 6.9 0.9 216.6 100.0 116.6 5.0 0.0 5.0

220.2 220.2 43.3 24.6 7.6 18.6 18.2 176.9 0.0 176.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.4 0.0

3.4 0.0

5.6 0.0

2.3 0.0

6.6 0.0

5.3 0.0

2.1 0.0

1.6 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

10.1 10.1 4.9 2.1 1.8 2.8 0.2 5.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.0 9.0 6.6 2.7 1.5 3.9 1.1 2.4 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

25.4 25.4 17.8 7.2 3.2 10.6 2.6 7.6 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

41.2 41.2 19.5 8.8 3.3 10.7 6.9 21.6 11.1 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

48.0 48.0 18.3 8.4 3.0 9.9 6.3 29.7 3.1 24.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

139.3 139.3 20.5 9.1 2.9 11.5 7.2 118.7 4.0 106.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

90.5 88.5 24.3 14.6 2.5 9.7 6.2 64.2 3.0 49.5 2.0 0.0 2.0

257.4 254.9 24.1 14.3 3.3 9.8 7.0 230.8 3.0 227.2 2.5 0.0 2.5

0.0 0.0

0.6 0.0

2.5 0.0

3.6 0.0

3.4 0.0

4.1 0.0

4.9 0.0

4.6 0.0

5.9 5.9 3.6 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.2 2.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.6 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.0 1.5 0.6 1.4 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 9.9 7.7 4.0 1.1 3.7 0.8 2.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

31.6 31.6 11.6 7.4 1.0 4.2 2.4 20.0 1.3 18.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

46.0 46.0 12.9 9.2 0.9 3.8 2.1 33.1 8.3 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

47.5 47.1 10.9 8.2 0.7 2.7 1.9 36.2 7.9 27.4 0.4 0.0 0.4

65.6 65.1 12.0 9.3 0.9 2.7 1.9 53.1 26.8 25.7 0.5 0.0 0.5

73.0 72.6 11.8 9.1 1.1 2.8 2.2 60.8 37.8 22.9 0.4 0.0 0.4

0.3 0.0

1.1 0.0

1.9 0.0

3.4 0.0

3.4 0.0

2.9 0.0

2.3 0.0

1.7 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

58

BELIZE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 22.7 0.0 37.8

.. 0.0 23.6 0.0 45.3

.. 0.0 10.0 0.1 62.7

.. 0.0 1.8 0.0 92.6

4.1 0.0 1.3 0.0 93.1

3.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 93.8

1.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 96.1

2.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 95.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 19.4 5.5 56.5 219.4 101.3 15.9 6.6 27.0 180.8 120.1 4.4 6.9 1.1 -2.1 -1.2 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

141.4 99.3 6.4

200.7 202.6 7.0

-99.5 -117.2 2.2

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.9 18.6 6.2 43.6

5.0 10.0 2.5 21.2

6.0 17.6 3.9 23.0

8.6 12.0 3.7 7.7

5.0 10.1 3.8 14.2

8.4 9.8 8.7 4.8

9.1 7.8 6.3 2.8

6.4 10.2 7.4 22.0

3.4 19.6 6.7 47.6

5.0 10.0 2.5 21.2

5.9 17.9 3.9 23.3

6.3 21.1 5.3 24.0

5.8 20.5 5.1 27.1

6.1 19.4 4.1 23.5

3.6 15.3 3.3 30.9

2.8 20.4 4.6 47.4

8.6 9.1 9.0 3.3

9.5 7.3 6.5 0.9

7.2 8.0 8.0 16.5

9.5 0.0 8.6 9.5 4.6 7.0 0.0 4.8 8.1 5.4 0.8 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.2 -1.1 0.0 2.7 0.7 8.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

81.7 68.8

60.6 66.1

59.6 63.2

49.4 60.1

46.1 57.4

60.0 53.7

127.1 49.9

175.4 39.1

22.3 14.5

25.8 14.6

27.1 13.9

26.9 12.9

26.4 11.8

25.3 10.6

23.7 9.5

20.9 8.5

5.5 3.6

5.8 3.9

6.0 3.8

6.9 3.7

7.1 3.5

6.7 3.2

5.9 2.9

5.5 2.7

16.8 10.9

19.9 10.7

21.2 10.0

20.0 9.2

19.4 8.3

18.6 7.4

17.8 6.5

15.4 5.8

59.4 54.3

34.8 51.5

32.5 49.3

22.5 47.2

19.7 45.6

34.7 43.1

103.4 40.4

154.4 30.7

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

59

BENIN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

854 697 697 0 11 146 47 6 40

1,292 1,218 1,218 0 18 55 21 18 2

1,614 1,483 1,483 0 84 47 8 7 1

1,591 1,442 1,442 0 84 65 0 0 0

1,661 1,505 1,505 0 77 79 0 0 0

1,836 1,689 1,689 0 73 74 0 0 0

1,828 1,726 1,726 0 73 29 0 0 0

1,916 1,827 1,827 0 65 24 0 0 0

120 23 97

69 60 9

71 67 4

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

39 39 0 28 27 1 47 37 21 14 0 7 27 49 41 1 7

120 120 0 20 19 2 92 -8 18 14 0 4 74 38 33 2 4

115 101 14 26 24 2 105 16 23 21 0 2 81 50 46 2 2

39 30 9 55 45 11 -65 -48 20 15 0 4 -85 75 60 11 4

124 113 10 32 23 10 105 13 17 14 0 3 88 50 37 10 3

72 67 5 33 23 10 34 -5 26 22 0 3 9 58 45 10 3

69 60 9 42 32 10 -17 -45 18 16 0 2 -35 60 48 10 2

78 76 2 44 37 8 29 -5 19 18 0 1 9 64 54 8 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

38 11 0 0 26 30

274 102 62 0 110 49

239 77 13 0 149 61

198 -14 67 0 145 68

274 91 51 0 132 62

189 44 18 2 125 68

258 28 48 0 183 91

405 39 60 1 306 90

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

24 14 0

259 14 0

212 21 6

176 15 7

252 14 7

149 22 17

216 16 26

373 18 0

2,242 640 87 751 458 -81

2,351 628 84 788 578 -75

2,669 695 76 939 616 -156

3,531 789 55 1,137 718 -331

4,053 .. 55 .. 640 ..

248.5 70.9 11.8 3.1 0.9 28.8 7.3 4.1 84.3 59.7

264.5 70.7 7.9 2.8 0.7 34.8 8.8 4.7 84.9 59.6

264.1 68.8 8.4 3.7 1.0 33.5 7.9 4.0 86.2 62.6

231.7 51.8 7.6 2.3 0.5 39.3 7.6 1.6 90.1 70.8

.. 47.3 .. .. 0.5 33.4 .. 1.3 90.8 73.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,024 380 40 472 8 -39

1,806 465 101 492 69 -18

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

224.5 83.3 12.9 5.5 2.0 0.9 0.2 17.1 38.4 26.9

277.9 71.5 8.2 3.8 1.0 5.4 1.7 4.3 78.1 41.6

1,965 730 100 926 198 -167

4. DEBT INDICATORS 221.1 82.1 6.8 3.2 1.2 12.3 2.6 2.9 77.6 54.0

60

BENIN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

697 697 380 229 201 150 127 317 0 1 0 0 0

1,218 1,218 1,202 537 497 665 512 17 0 0 0 0 0

1,483 1,483 1,479 871 847 607 407 4 0 0 0 0 0

1,442 1,442 1,439 950 929 489 412 3 0 0 0 0 0

1,505 1,505 1,503 989 971 513 439 3 0 0 0 0 0

1,689 1,689 1,686 1,149 1,127 537 456 3 0 0 0 0 0

1,726 1,726 1,722 1,294 1,271 429 377 4 0 0 0 0 0

1,827 1,827 1,823 1,408 1,377 415 363 4 0 0 0 0 0

0 124 697 0

0 326 1,218 0

0 498 1,483 0

0 578 1,442 0

0 598 1,505 0

0 654 1,689 0

0 729 1,726 0

0 791 1,827 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

39 39 37 30 26 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

120 120 120 91 82 29 29 0 0 0 0 0 0

101 101 101 83 79 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 29 29 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

113 113 113 97 97 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

67 67 67 60 60 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 60 60 56 56 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

76 76 76 76 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 19

0 56

0 31

0 36

0 48

0 23

0 28

0 42

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

27 27 8 6 2 2 1 19 0 1 0 0 0

19 19 18 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 24 17 12 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

45 45 45 15 12 30 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 23 23 15 12 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 23 23 13 11 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 32 32 14 12 17 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

37 37 37 18 17 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 1

0 3

0 4

0 4

0 3

0 4

0 5

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

14 14 7 5 3 2 1 7 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 13 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 21 9 7 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 15 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 22 22 12 11 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 11 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 13 12 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 4

0 4

0 4

0 4

0 5

0 6

61

BENIN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 1.3 0.0 30.8

.. 0.0 0.9 0.0 50.8

.. 0.0 0.4 0.0 51.8

.. 2.3 0.3 0.0 60.9

9.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 61.4

8.9 3.7 0.3 0.0 58.6

7.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 59.7

7.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 58.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 12 5 53 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 37 0 0 4 0 37 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 3 0 0 3 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 122 137 4 10 0 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 142 50 25 -96 70 47 92 105 -65 105 67 62 -4 -53 -35 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 1 59 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 1 0 0

175 34 80

-8 -17 110

88 29 55

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.5 30.3 7.7 51.0

1.3 39.2 8.4 72.0

1.3 33.1 8.7 70.4

1.6 36.0 8.3 68.5

0.9 40.2 12.8 78.6

0.9 39.3 9.5 76.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 43.4 10.0 80.2

3.5 30.3 7.7 51.0

1.3 39.2 8.4 72.0

1.3 33.1 8.7 70.4

1.6 36.0 8.3 68.5

0.9 40.2 12.8 78.6

0.9 39.3 9.5 76.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 43.4 10.0 80.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

94 20

77 19

78 18

79 18

79 17

82 16

82 15

85 14

90 20

77 19

78 18

79 18

79 17

82 16

82 15

85 14

49 6

35 5

35 4

36 4

35 4

35 3

35 3

35 3

41 14

42 14

43 14

43 14

44 13

47 13

47 12

50 12

4 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

62

BHUTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

8.8 8.8 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

83.5 80.3 80.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.0

105.8 105.2 105.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0

203.8 202.2 202.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

265.2 265.2 265.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

377.9 376.9 376.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

485.9 481.5 481.5 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

593.3 593.3 593.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

1.5 1.5 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

5.5 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.4 8.4 0.0 2.9 2.9 0.0 6.5 1.0 2.3 2.0 0.0 0.2 4.2 5.2 5.0 0.0 0.2

9.9 9.9 0.0 7.2 7.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.8 9.8 0.0 0.0

34.8 34.8 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0 29.6 -0.5 2.0 1.8 0.0 0.2 27.6 6.7 6.5 0.0 0.2

79.5 79.5 0.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 73.4 -1.5 1.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 71.7 6.3 6.3 0.0 0.0

97.8 97.8 0.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 94.3 1.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 92.4 6.5 6.4 0.0 0.0

92.3 92.3 0.0 4.8 4.8 0.0 90.9 3.4 2.4 2.3 0.0 0.1 88.5 7.2 7.1 0.0 0.1

92.6 92.6 0.0 6.7 6.7 0.0 81.4 -4.4 5.2 5.2 0.0 0.1 76.2 12.0 11.9 0.0 0.1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

12.7 5.5 0.0 0.0 7.2 10.4

24.0 5.5 1.6 0.0 16.9 23.7

42.2 2.7 0.1 0.0 39.5 27.1

50.6 30.1 -0.1 0.0 20.6 21.9

105.2 74.9 0.3 0.0 30.0 17.1

125.8 93.3 0.3 0.0 32.2 19.7

130.2 87.5 1.1 0.0 41.7 22.8

128.2 85.8 1.0 0.0 41.4 23.3

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

12.7 0.0 0.0

21.9 2.0 0.0

39.6 2.6 0.0

48.8 1.8 0.0

103.5 1.7 0.0

123.9 1.9 0.0

127.9 2.3 0.0

123.1 5.2 0.0

427.9 139.7 0.0 258.4 317.6 -13.4

478.9 148.8 0.0 272.7 323.4 -40.0

531.0 138.6 0.0 262.7 354.9 -41.9

601.2 .. 0.0 .. 366.6 ..

656.9 .. 0.0 .. 398.6 ..

145.9 47.6 4.8 1.4 0.5 155.9 14.8 0.8 65.5 49.4

178.2 55.4 4.2 1.2 0.4 121.9 14.2 0.0 51.7 40.5

272.7 71.2 4.7 1.4 0.4 93.9 16.2 0.3 49.4 37.2

.. 80.8 .. .. 0.4 75.4 .. 0.9 43.7 30.7

.. 90.3 .. .. 0.8 67.2 .. 0.0 40.5 28.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

158.8 34.4 0.0 108.5 53.3 -74.1

266.0 94.9 0.0 122.9 88.8 -28.0

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

25.7 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 603.7 5.9 0.0 100.0 61.7

88.0 31.4 5.5 2.4 0.9 106.3 8.7 3.9 74.0 50.1

273.1 90.2 0.0 132.3 130.5 -34.1

4. DEBT INDICATORS 117.2 38.7 10.9 2.9 1.0 123.3 11.8 0.5 93.0 64.5

63

BHUTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

8.8 8.8 8.8 5.5 5.5 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

80.3 80.3 61.8 41.9 41.9 19.9 19.9 18.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

105.2 105.2 98.4 68.2 68.2 30.2 30.2 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

202.2 202.2 202.2 100.6 100.6 101.6 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

265.2 265.2 265.2 107.5 107.5 157.6 29.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

376.9 376.9 376.9 140.5 140.5 236.4 46.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

481.5 481.5 481.5 149.1 149.1 332.4 63.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

593.3 593.3 593.3 169.6 169.6 423.7 71.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.5 8.8 0.0

0.0 16.1 80.3 0.0

0.0 22.5 105.2 0.0

0.0 26.1 202.2 0.0

0.0 30.7 265.2 0.0

0.0 38.5 376.9 0.0

0.0 49.2 481.5 0.0

0.0 60.3 593.3 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5.5 5.5 5.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.4 8.4 8.4 7.2 7.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 9.9 9.9 5.8 5.8 4.1 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

34.8 34.8 34.8 11.8 11.8 23.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

79.5 79.5 79.5 13.5 13.5 66.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

97.8 97.8 97.8 23.0 23.0 74.9 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

92.3 92.3 92.3 12.7 12.7 79.6 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

92.6 92.6 92.6 16.4 16.4 76.1 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.5

0.0 2.0

0.0 1.2

0.0 3.6

0.0 6.0

0.0 5.5

0.0 6.9

0.0 9.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.2 7.2 4.9 0.6 0.6 4.3 4.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.7 4.7 4.7 1.3 1.3 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.5 4.5 4.5 1.2 1.2 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.5 4.5 4.5 1.2 1.2 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.8 4.8 4.8 1.3 1.3 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.7 6.7 6.7 1.8 1.8 4.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.5

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 2.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.6 2.6 2.0 0.6 0.6 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.9 1.9 1.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.3 2.3 2.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 5.2 1.6 1.6 3.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.6

64

BHUTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.1

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.6

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.7

4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6

8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3

10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.7

10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 6.1 9.7 1.3 20.0 61.4 5.5 6.5 2.7 29.6 73.4 0.3 1.1 -2.0 -10.6 -7.7 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

112.7 94.3 10.6

108.0 90.9 27.4

107.3 81.4 22.7

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.3 38.2 8.7 72.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 33.4 11.2 73.8

3.6 31.7 10.0 53.1

1.1 31.5 8.8 72.6

6.8 23.2 9.9 24.8

5.6 28.6 9.9 37.2

5.4 24.1 9.3 35.4

1.3 38.2 8.7 72.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 33.4 11.2 73.8

3.6 31.7 10.0 53.1

1.1 31.5 8.8 72.6

6.8 23.2 9.9 24.8

5.6 28.6 9.9 37.2

5.4 24.1 9.3 35.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

5.3 36.6

40.6 41.1

41.3 40.0

39.7 37.6

40.9 34.6

47.7 31.5

47.7 28.2

48.2 25.0

5.3 36.6

40.6 41.1

41.3 40.0

39.7 37.6

40.9 34.6

47.7 31.5

47.7 28.2

48.2 25.0

3.1 34.8

37.8 38.9

38.4 37.7

35.8 35.2

35.3 32.0

40.7 28.9

40.7 25.7

40.7 22.5

2.2 1.8

2.7 2.2

2.9 2.3

3.9 2.5

5.5 2.5

7.0 2.6

7.1 2.5

7.5 2.5

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

65

BOLIVIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,805 4,066 3,511 555 82 656 309 72 237

4,275 3,864 3,687 177 257 154 6 2 4

5,272 4,698 4,459 239 268 307 20 7 13

5,782 5,160 4,134 1,026 220 402 2 2 0

4,687 4,100 3,121 979 207 380 0 0 0

5,000 4,435 3,512 923 195 370 0 0 0

5,675 5,280 4,249 1,031 279 116 0 0 0

6,096 5,663 4,645 1,019 307 126 0 0 0

582 171 411

31 9 22

30 21 9

19 19 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

137 137 0 198 174 24 -51 10 168 157 5 5 -218 366 332 29 5

331 300 31 241 196 46 32 -57 144 117 13 14 -112 385 313 59 14

520 494 26 199 173 26 341 20 173 155 1 17 168 372 328 27 17

758 743 15 454 434 20 294 -10 180 159 1 20 113 634 593 21 20

571 547 24 360 340 21 191 -20 184 168 1 15 7 544 507 22 15

618 618 0 362 345 17 246 -10 115 100 1 15 130 478 445 18 15

1,031 941 90 303 284 19 474 -254 129 122 1 6 345 432 406 20 6

728 672 56 378 356 22 360 10 135 128 4 4 224 513 484 25 4

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

53 -37 19 0 71 43

333 104 27 0 202 108

1,042 321 393 0 328 217

1,266 309 736 0 221 150

1,265 207 706 0 352 232

1,549 273 677 0 600 213

1,305 657 197 0 451 266

1,199 316 116 0 768 243

-157 157 53

199 117 17

862 155 24

959 159 148

929 168 168

1,267 100 183

950 122 234

765 128 306

8,172 1,711 127 2,443 1,184 -446

7,930 1,749 135 2,312 1,146 -274

7,720 1,742 113 2,380 893 -352

7,788 2,143 142 2,422 1,097 62

8,388 2,760 158 2,794 1,271 285

338.0 70.8 37.1 10.5 2.2 20.5 5.8 7.0 53.9 48.4

268.0 59.1 31.1 10.5 2.3 24.4 5.9 8.1 47.8 62.3

287.1 64.8 27.4 6.6 1.5 17.9 4.5 7.4 52.7 65.6

264.8 72.9 20.2 6.0 1.7 19.3 5.4 2.0 58.2 70.8

220.8 72.7 18.6 4.9 1.6 20.9 5.5 2.1 61.1 71.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,874 738 6 1,099 492 -285

4,626 998 5 1,354 511 -199

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

651.3 167.2 49.5 22.7 5.8 10.3 5.4 13.7 21.3 15.1

428.6 92.4 38.6 14.4 3.1 12.0 4.5 3.6 44.2 37.2

6,494 1,264 7 1,809 1,005 -303

4. DEBT INDICATORS 417.1 81.2 29.4 13.7 2.7 19.1 6.7 5.8 51.7 48.9

66

BOLIVIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

4,066 3,511 2,088 724 373 1,364 651 1,424 38 901 555 0 555

3,864 3,687 3,362 1,589 882 1,773 1,006 325 35 4 177 0 177

4,698 4,459 4,396 2,579 1,397 1,817 1,327 63 17 9 239 0 239

5,160 4,134 4,100 2,801 1,966 1,300 1,150 33 0 3 1,026 0 1,026

4,100 3,121 3,101 2,921 2,077 180 162 20 0 0 979 0 979

4,435 3,512 3,488 3,281 2,439 207 194 24 0 0 923 0 923

5,280 4,249 4,224 4,015 3,100 209 204 25 0 0 1,031 0 1,031

5,663 4,645 4,619 4,337 3,445 283 282 26 0 0 1,019 0 1,019

207 94 3,507 559

194 393 3,687 177

95 770 4,459 239

0 1,096 3,757 1,403

0 1,146 3,078 1,022

0 1,321 3,466 969

0 1,571 4,213 1,067

0 1,750 4,617 1,046

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

137 137 135 73 46 61 48 2 0 0 0 0 0

300 300 291 204 90 86 85 9 0 0 0 0 0

494 427 427 383 174 45 45 0 0 0 67 0 67

743 275 262 237 151 25 21 13 0 0 468 0 468

547 374 370 324 191 46 41 3 0 0 173 0 173

618 498 495 460 300 36 34 3 0 0 119 0 119

941 717 716 696 502 20 20 1 0 0 224 0 224

672 494 492 407 294 85 85 2 0 0 177 0 177

11 2

0 49

0 113

0 61

0 102

0 104

0 143

0 124

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

174 149 136 73 3 63 22 13 1 3 26 0 26

196 172 163 117 14 46 9 9 0 2 24 0 24

173 155 147 120 22 27 3 8 0 4 18 0 18

434 153 149 118 21 32 22 4 0 1 281 0 281

340 143 140 116 15 24 18 2 0 0 197 0 197

345 147 147 130 14 16 10 1 0 0 198 0 198

284 189 188 169 24 19 11 1 0 0 95 0 95

356 181 179 170 23 9 5 2 0 0 175 0 175

12 1

21 2

26 2

12 0

0 1

0 7

0 6

0 8

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

157 100 77 36 5 41 11 23 1 0 58 0 58

117 103 101 69 10 32 6 2 0 1 14 0 14

155 137 133 100 17 33 24 4 0 1 19 0 19

159 112 111 82 15 29 23 1 0 0 47 0 47

168 99 97 72 10 25 22 1 0 0 69 0 69

100 68 68 61 12 6 5 0 0 0 32 0 32

122 85 85 81 32 4 3 0 0 0 36 0 36

128 82 82 79 37 3 2 0 0 0 46 0 46

16 1

15 3

9 6

1 1

0 1

0 7

0 8

0 12

67

BOLIVIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.0 0.5 0.1 70.6

.. 10.0 0.9 0.7 41.3

.. 13.2 0.7 0.0 32.7

.. 12.3 0.2 0.0 45.1

0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.1

1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.9

0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4

1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 153 196 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 81 138 0 0 0 69 137 0 0 0 12 1 0 0 0 63 46 0 0 0 59 46 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 92 74 28 99 0 60 8 8 18 0 20 0 18 1,050 0 4 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 488 143 396 237 -1,095 -51 32 341 294 191 100 114 -33 -212 -193 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 13 61 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 12 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 18 0 0

313 246 113

675 474 226

422 360 80

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.1 32.5 7.0 41.6

4.2 29.2 7.9 47.8

3.8 28.8 7.7 49.7

4.2 28.4 7.8 48.0

3.3 23.2 6.0 46.2

4.1 21.8 5.7 40.4

3.0 22.3 6.4 48.5

3.2 17.7 4.5 40.7

4.8 33.9 7.3 44.1

4.1 29.5 7.9 48.4

3.8 29.0 7.8 50.1

4.2 28.6 7.9 48.2

3.3 23.3 6.1 46.5

4.1 21.9 5.7 40.5

3.0 22.3 6.4 48.5

3.2 17.7 4.5 40.7

6.3 5.5 1.0 9.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.8 9.4 6.7 7.4 5.9 6.8 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.6 1.8 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 -3.3 1.0 8.2 5.9 10.5 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

368 217

472 203

382 181

379 161

426 139

360 116

350 95

304 77

229 133

267 131

261 124

248 115

268 105

269 94

264 83

261 73

28 8

28 8

25 8

25 8

27 7

29 7

30 6

29 5

200 124

239 123

236 116

223 107

241 98

240 87

234 77

232 67

139 85

205 71

121 57

131 46

158 33

90 22

86 12

44 5

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt and on private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are from BIS semiannual series of international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

68

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. 48 31 .. .. ..

2,110 1,956 1,949 7 105 49 1 1 0

1,942 1,772 1,760 11 111 60 0 0 0

2,519 2,031 2,011 21 139 349 2 2 0

2,585 2,338 2,294 44 134 113 0 0 0

3,202 2,734 2,644 90 109 360 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

2 2 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. 46 .. .. 28 .. .. .. .. 5 .. .. .. .. 33 ..

136 100 36 191 171 20 -44 11 97 89 5 3 -141 288 260 25 3

104 86 18 207 200 8 -92 12 75 67 5 3 -167 282 267 13 3

194 153 41 93 70 23 388 287 54 48 3 3 334 148 119 26 3

190 156 34 121 71 51 -166 -234 54 48 2 4 -220 175 119 53 4

347 329 18 120 73 48 474 247 56 48 3 5 418 176 120 51 5

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. 870 62

646 -71 146 0 570 103

436 -113 118 0 431 123

676 83 268 0 325 123

784 85 382 0 317 152

1,146 257 613 0 277 147

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

557 89 0

366 67 2

623 48 5

726 48 10

1,092 48 7

4,752 3,168 1,595 4,253 497 -463

5,045 3,175 1,521 4,457 1,221 -750

5,873 3,192 1,526 4,860 1,321 -1,201

7,346 3,951 1,745 6,169 1,796 -1,745

8,768 4,797 1,824 7,236 2,408 -1,918

66.6 44.4 9.1 3.1 2.0 23.5 1.4 2.3 43.5 60.0

61.2 38.5 8.9 2.4 1.5 62.9 3.3 3.1 48.4 57.1

78.9 42.9 4.6 1.7 0.9 52.4 3.3 13.8 45.4 50.0

65.4 35.2 4.4 1.4 0.7 69.5 3.5 4.4 51.2 55.1

66.8 36.5 3.7 1.2 0.6 75.2 4.0 11.2 50.4 53.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,625 .. .. .. .. ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

69

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,956 1,949 1,825 1,266 460 559 458 125 0 125 7 0 7

1,772 1,760 1,642 1,108 502 534 438 118 0 118 11 0 11

2,031 2,011 1,870 1,260 644 610 498 140 0 140 21 0 21

2,338 2,294 2,125 1,426 758 699 566 169 0 169 44 0 44

2,734 2,644 2,462 1,726 1,020 735 595 182 0 182 90 0 90

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

472 0 .. ..

562 398 1,949 7

540 443 1,760 11

538 578 2,011 21

540 683 2,294 44

527 927 2,644 90

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

100 95 95 90 62 5 5 0 0 0 5 0 5

86 74 74 72 62 1 1 0 0 0 13 0 13

153 135 135 107 98 27 15 0 0 0 19 0 19

156 115 115 92 49 23 23 0 0 0 41 0 41

329 268 268 260 223 8 8 0 0 0 61 0 61

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 44

0 62

0 97

0 48

0 209

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

171 170 170 166 0 4 4 0 0 0 1 0 1

200 191 191 186 1 5 5 0 0 0 9 0 9

70 58 58 32 2 26 13 0 0 0 13 0 13

71 47 47 34 2 13 11 0 0 0 23 0 23

73 50 50 35 2 15 12 0 0 0 22 0 22

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

5 0

23 0

24 0

24 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

89 89 86 74 4 13 8 2 0 2 0 0 0

67 66 64 54 5 10 7 2 0 2 1 0 1

48 48 44 30 5 14 9 4 0 4 1 0 1

48 46 42 28 6 14 8 5 0 5 2 0 2

48 45 40 28 8 12 6 5 0 5 3 0 3

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

33 3

31 3

22 4

17 5

15 6

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

70

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 2.3 27.7

31.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 33.5

32.6 0.2 0.0 2.4 36.2

35.0 1.1 0.0 2.3 36.2

34.5 1.2 0.0 2.0 40.3

.. .. 4 0 .. .. 0 0 .. .. 2 0 .. .. 0 0 .. .. 2 0 .. .. 1 0 .. .. 0 0 .. .. 1 0 .. .. 0 0 .. .. 0 0 .. .. 0 0 .. .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. .. -264 -168 .. .. .. -44 -92 .. .. .. -115 -78 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

577 388 184

66 -166 239

617 474 122

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.5 25.6 7.2 49.1

1.8 30.1 8.4 65.8

0.8 34.6 9.9 78.3

1.4 19.4 10.4 63.8

0.8 19.6 10.1 69.0

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.5 25.6 7.2 49.1

1.8 30.1 8.4 65.8

0.8 34.6 9.9 78.3

1.4 19.4 10.4 63.8

0.8 19.6 10.1 69.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. .. 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

94 61

121 59

132 56

123 53

129 50

122 46

125 43

120 40

71 51

80 50

94 49

98 47

107 45

106 42

110 39

106 36

31 15

31 15

31 14

31 13

30 12

30 12

30 11

30 10

40 35

49 36

64 35

67 34

77 32

76 30

80 28

75 26

23 10

41 9

37 7

25 6

21 5

16 4

15 4

14 3

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Prior to 1999 data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt include only the IBRD and IMF. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

71

BOTSWANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

345.7 343.7 343.7 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

552.9 547.1 547.1 0.0 0.0 5.8 2.6 1.3 1.3

717.2 707.0 707.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 6.2 0.2 6.0

452.8 437.8 437.8 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

399.9 378.9 378.9 0.0 0.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

488.4 472.4 472.4 0.0 0.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

513.6 484.6 484.6 0.0 0.0 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

524.0 488.3 488.3 0.0 0.0 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

2.7 0.9 1.8

9.0 3.0 6.0

1.0 1.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

71.8 71.8 0.0 26.7 26.7 0.0 42.1 -3.0 20.9 20.6 0.0 0.3 21.2 47.6 47.3 0.0 0.3

27.0 27.0 0.0 66.5 66.5 0.0 -39.4 0.1 38.8 38.6 0.0 0.2 -78.2 105.3 105.1 0.0 0.2

67.4 67.4 0.0 63.9 63.9 0.0 4.0 0.6 27.5 27.3 0.0 0.2 -23.5 91.4 91.2 0.0 0.2

28.0 28.0 0.0 52.1 52.1 0.0 -28.8 -4.7 16.6 15.2 0.0 1.3 -45.3 68.7 67.4 0.0 1.3

7.4 7.4 0.0 39.3 39.3 0.0 -25.9 6.0 12.9 11.9 0.0 1.0 -38.7 52.1 51.1 0.0 1.0

1.8 1.8 0.0 44.6 44.6 0.0 -47.8 -5.0 16.2 15.2 0.0 1.0 -63.9 60.8 59.8 0.0 1.0

13.5 13.5 0.0 38.0 38.0 0.0 -11.6 13.0 12.4 11.4 0.0 1.0 -24.0 50.5 49.5 0.0 1.0

22.1 22.1 0.0 36.6 36.6 0.0 -7.8 6.7 12.0 10.8 0.0 1.2 -19.8 48.5 47.4 0.0 1.2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

152.4 45.1 53.6 0.0 53.7 36.9

135.0 -39.5 96.0 0.0 78.4 59.1

107.5 3.4 70.0 5.5 28.6 51.4

45.1 -24.1 57.0 -5.9 18.1 18.2

12.6 -31.9 22.0 6.0 16.5 17.9

380.8 -42.8 403.0 7.1 13.5 38.7

418.5 -24.6 418.0 10.2 14.9 27.7

63.9 -14.5 46.8 9.5 22.1 34.4

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

9.6 20.6 122.2

-310.6 38.6 406.9

-335.5 27.3 415.7

-628.0 15.2 657.9

-342.9 11.9 343.7

-543.3 15.2 909.0

-596.5 11.4 1,003.5

-675.4 10.8 0.0

5,046.9 3,033.6 26.0 2,612.9 5,897.3 617.9

4,725.2 3,076.5 27.0 3,145.6 5,473.9 143.3

7,443.0 4,071.2 38.9 3,878.0 5,339.8 483.3

8,645.2 .. 38.9 .. 5,661.4 ..

13.2 7.9 1.7 0.4 0.3 1,474.8 27.1 5.3 66.9 65.0

15.9 10.3 2.0 0.5 0.3 1,120.7 20.9 3.3 60.6 66.6

12.6 6.9 1.2 0.3 0.2 1,039.6 16.5 5.6 60.3 64.8

.. 6.1 .. .. 0.1 1,080.5 .. 6.8 61.4 62.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

983.1 888.8 31.0 840.6 758.3 81.9

3,685.7 2,421.1 86.0 2,508.9 3,331.5 -19.3

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

38.9 35.2 5.4 2.3 2.1 219.4 10.8 0.6 30.5 65.1

22.8 15.0 4.3 1.6 1.1 602.5 15.9 1.0 32.9 70.0

4,741.4 2,903.8 59.0 2,565.3 4,695.5 299.7

4,899.6 3,378.6 26.0 3,050.2 6,318.2 545.2

4. DEBT INDICATORS 24.7 15.1 3.1 0.9 0.6 654.7 22.0 1.4 49.1 70.1

72

13.4 9.2 2.0 0.5 0.3 1,395.5 24.9 3.3 64.0 65.7

BOTSWANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

343.7 343.7 311.3 225.2 50.1 86.1 55.5 32.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

547.1 547.1 519.7 387.1 109.8 132.7 71.9 27.4 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

707.0 707.0 660.0 502.9 218.6 157.2 133.7 47.0 0.0 32.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

437.8 437.8 409.9 297.4 180.1 112.5 109.5 27.9 0.0 19.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

378.9 378.9 359.5 260.0 168.8 99.5 98.7 19.3 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

472.4 472.4 455.3 325.5 166.2 129.8 129.6 17.1 0.0 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

484.6 484.6 469.8 333.0 173.0 136.8 136.7 14.8 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

488.3 488.3 474.3 327.9 175.2 146.3 146.3 14.0 0.0 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

122.1 14.9 342.2 1.4

155.2 13.6 547.1 0.0

96.3 11.5 676.4 30.5

15.6 9.1 432.4 5.4

10.2 8.7 378.9 0.0

7.4 8.2 472.4 0.0

5.0 7.7 484.6 0.0

3.4 7.2 488.3 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

71.8 71.8 68.1 55.7 5.6 12.4 7.2 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.0 27.0 27.0 20.5 11.4 6.5 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

67.4 67.4 67.4 23.3 13.0 44.0 44.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

28.0 28.0 24.3 7.9 6.5 16.4 16.4 3.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.4 7.4 7.4 4.1 3.5 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 1.8 1.8 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.5 13.5 13.5 5.8 0.1 7.6 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

22.1 22.1 22.1 4.5 3.0 17.6 17.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

19.0 0.0

7.0 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

26.7 26.7 10.9 7.7 1.8 3.2 1.4 15.8 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

66.5 66.5 48.0 36.6 2.7 11.4 3.4 18.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

63.9 63.9 57.7 48.3 5.9 9.4 4.6 6.2 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

52.1 52.1 45.3 33.2 8.7 12.1 10.2 6.9 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

39.3 39.3 37.0 27.5 8.0 9.5 7.7 2.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

44.6 44.6 42.4 30.3 8.5 12.1 11.7 2.2 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

38.0 38.0 35.8 25.4 6.9 10.3 10.3 2.3 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

36.6 36.6 35.7 25.2 7.6 10.5 10.3 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.8 0.2

19.0 0.3

23.7 0.5

7.4 0.5

4.5 0.5

3.5 0.5

3.0 0.5

1.7 0.5

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

20.6 20.6 17.1 12.4 0.7 4.7 1.2 3.5 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

38.6 38.6 35.6 27.8 2.5 7.8 1.8 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.3 27.3 24.2 21.0 1.7 3.2 1.0 3.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.2 15.2 13.9 11.1 2.6 2.9 2.4 1.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.9 11.9 11.4 8.4 2.2 3.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.2 15.2 14.9 11.3 2.7 3.6 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.4 11.4 11.2 8.4 2.0 2.8 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.8 10.8 10.6 7.7 2.0 2.9 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.7 0.1

14.2 0.1

8.6 0.1

1.2 0.1

0.7 0.1

0.5 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.2 0.1

73

BOTSWANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 18.1 0.0 17.7

.. 4.4 10.1 0.0 11.9

.. 11.1 3.8 0.1 13.4

.. 11.4 2.3 0.1 18.0

8.6 10.7 2.0 0.1 19.8

6.1 17.4 5.5 0.2 23.8

6.9 17.9 5.5 0.2 21.7

7.2 17.4 5.3 0.2 19.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 78.8 3.1 16.8 -51.5 -52.9 42.1 -39.4 4.0 -28.8 -25.9 28.7 21.2 0.2 -10.5 0.1 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

88.6 -47.8 11.8

25.2 -11.6 0.3

10.3 -7.8 4.0

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.1 18.0 4.1 10.6

6.8 15.2 4.4 18.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.9 11.9 3.9 30.9

0.0 19.3 10.3 74.6

3.2 14.9 5.1 40.8

3.1 20.5 5.0 45.9

8.4 18.4 4.2 9.5

5.6 17.5 4.5 26.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.9 11.9 3.9 30.9

0.0 19.3 10.3 74.6

3.2 14.9 5.1 40.8

3.1 20.5 5.0 45.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.4 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

49.9 13.9

48.6 12.2

45.8 10.5

43.4 8.8

39.7 7.3

36.3 5.9

33.2 4.8

29.4 3.8

47.1 12.9

45.7 11.5

42.9 9.9

40.5 8.4

39.0 7.0

35.8 5.8

32.6 4.7

28.9 3.8

12.4 3.7

11.8 3.5

12.0 3.3

14.3 3.0

14.1 2.6

14.1 2.3

13.7 1.9

12.1 1.5

34.6 9.2

33.9 8.0

30.8 6.7

26.2 5.4

24.9 4.4

21.7 3.5

18.9 2.8

16.8 2.2

2.9 1.0

2.9 0.8

2.9 0.6

2.9 0.4

0.7 0.2

0.6 0.2

0.6 0.1

0.6 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

74

BRAZIL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

103,612 89,612 72,435 17,177 4,619 9,380 111 35 76

119,964 94,427 87,756 6,671 1,821 23,716 8,791 332 8,459

160,515 129,136 98,306 30,830 142 31,238 1,546 1,185 361

243,428 210,687 98,005 112,682 1,768 30,973 177 107 70

231,085 194,474 98,194 96,280 8,337 28,273 0 0 0

233,107 188,884 101,476 87,408 20,827 23,395 0 0 0

236,583 183,672 101,543 82,129 28,317 24,594 0 0 0

222,026 171,729 97,865 73,864 25,029 25,267 0 0 0

614 84 530

3,694 789 2,905

3,972 884 3,088

1,840 599 1,240

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

3,380 3,380 0 2,359 2,294 65 -658 -1,679 9,112 7,337 337 1,438 -9,770 11,471 9,630 402 1,438

4,087 4,087 0 5,913 5,147 765 -1,727 99 2,260 2,029 231 0 -3,986 8,172 7,176 996 0

20,216 20,216 0 11,054 11,005 49 8,804 -359 10,522 8,720 10 1,792 -1,718 21,576 19,724 59 1,792

44,926 44,926 0 47,726 41,033 6,693 -968 1,831 17,182 15,352 336 1,494 -18,150 64,908 56,384 7,029 1,494

45,308 38,590 6,718 37,332 37,332 0 5,453 -2,524 17,321 15,831 133 1,357 -11,868 54,653 53,163 133 1,357

40,556 24,663 15,893 37,249 32,603 4,646 -1,571 -4,878 15,170 13,938 467 765 -16,741 52,419 46,540 5,114 765

45,081 27,407 17,674 42,377 29,930 12,447 3,903 1,199 16,613 14,176 757 1,680 -12,710 58,990 44,106 13,205 1,680

26,661 26,661 0 38,570 34,213 4,357 -11,236 673 15,140 11,983 1,208 1,950 -26,376 53,710 46,196 5,565 1,950

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

2,561 1,086 1,441 0 34 73

72 -1,060 989 103 41 145

16,910 9,211 4,859 2,775 65 239

39,803 3,894 32,779 3,076 54 277

26,277 1,258 22,457 2,481 81 289

10,703 -7,940 16,590 1,981 72 304

10,676 -2,523 10,144 2,973 82 321

12,786 -7,552 18,166 2,081 91 329

-6,457 7,337 1,682

-3,849 2,029 1,892

5,376 8,720 2,814

20,213 15,352 4,238

5,441 15,831 5,006

-9,185 13,938 5,950

-9,484 14,176 5,984

-6,057 11,983 6,860

489,286 72,003 1,775 95,676 35,866 -23,215

443,005 74,919 2,449 83,235 37,835 -7,637

487,940 88,888 2,821 85,559 49,297 4,177

584,858 114,716 3,575 103,788 52,935 11,738

320.9 47.2 75.9 24.1 3.5 15.5 4.5 12.2 1.1 8.4

311.1 52.6 70.0 20.2 3.4 16.2 5.5 10.0 1.4 9.1

266.2 48.5 66.4 18.7 3.4 20.8 6.9 10.4 1.4 8.8

193.5 38.0 46.8 13.2 2.6 23.8 6.1 11.4 1.5 8.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

211,064 29,334 40 29,737 11,618 -280

449,672 36,854 573 40,949 9,200 -3,823

353.2 49.1 39.1 31.1 4.3 11.2 4.7 9.1 1.5 7.1

325.5 26.7 22.2 6.1 0.5 7.7 2.7 19.8 2.5 9.5

693,103 58,989 3,315 77,855 51,477 -18,136

583,804 69,317 1,649 93,950 33,008 -24,225

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

272.1 23.2 36.6 17.8 1.5 32.1 7.9 19.5 3.7 5.8

75

351.2 41.7 93.6 24.8 2.9 13.6 4.2 12.7 0.9 7.5

BRAZIL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

89,612 72,435 12,782 7,337 46 5,445 1,512 59,654 1,816 50,051 17,177 0 17,177

94,427 87,756 29,348 11,391 16 17,956 3,001 58,409 2,339 47,461 6,671 0 6,671

129,136 98,306 27,837 9,366 0 18,471 5,943 70,468 54,615 12,170 30,830 11,290 19,540

210,687 98,005 29,360 18,240 3 11,120 2,114 68,645 55,802 11,875 112,682 16,846 95,836

194,474 98,194 28,827 19,373 3 9,455 2,649 69,367 50,318 17,144 96,280 17,637 78,643

188,884 101,476 31,261 21,109 3 10,152 3,209 70,216 54,564 14,591 87,408 16,476 70,932

183,672 101,543 29,899 20,798 3 9,101 3,318 71,644 60,719 10,472 82,129 42,018 40,111

171,729 97,865 27,275 19,596 9 7,678 3,389 70,590 57,846 12,263 73,864 38,376 35,487

5,274 0 70,758 18,854

8,427 0 87,186 7,241

6,038 0 97,438 31,698

7,377 0 97,560 113,127

7,963 0 97,869 96,606

8,585 0 100,563 88,322

8,588 0 100,103 83,569

8,668 0 96,324 75,405

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,380 3,380 1,866 1,123 0 743 38 1,513 0 494 0 0 0

4,087 3,212 1,322 1,001 0 321 86 1,890 200 864 875 0 875

20,216 8,120 2,005 1,257 0 747 16 6,116 1,661 4,351 12,096 4,563 7,533

44,926 20,511 5,257 4,468 3 790 526 15,254 11,529 3,713 24,415 2,886 21,529

38,590 16,131 4,339 2,651 0 1,687 458 11,792 7,870 3,598 22,459 2,930 19,529

24,663 14,362 5,387 3,217 0 2,170 814 8,975 4,772 4,150 10,301 2,055 8,246

27,407 12,236 3,321 2,475 0 846 573 8,915 8,000 894 15,170 5,160 10,011

26,661 12,391 2,614 1,950 6 664 542 9,776 5,743 4,007 14,271 5,199 9,071

765 0

782 0

838 0

1,692 0

1,639 0

1,400 0

1,291 0

1,447 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,294 1,537 930 537 6 393 6 607 215 68 757 0 757

5,147 4,139 1,956 1,518 6 439 29 2,183 71 1,616 1,008 0 1,008

11,005 6,525 3,719 1,683 1 2,035 408 2,806 919 1,051 4,480 2,670 1,810

41,033 17,226 7,048 4,308 0 2,740 224 10,178 8,397 1,547 23,806 2,775 21,031

37,332 13,227 1,597 1,114 0 483 122 11,630 6,979 4,379 24,105 2,117 21,988

32,603 15,239 4,575 2,153 0 2,422 507 10,663 2,162 7,441 17,364 3,280 14,084

29,930 14,369 5,593 3,593 0 2,001 398 8,775 3,815 4,458 15,561 1,561 14,000

34,213 13,221 5,552 3,533 0 2,019 454 7,669 5,707 1,941 20,992 9,671 11,320

406 0

1,251 0

1,377 0

887 0

828 0

1,063 0

1,633 0

1,564 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

7,337 5,667 817 542 2 275 30 4,850 135 4,452 1,670 0 1,670

2,029 1,569 1,273 966 1 307 13 296 14 46 460 0 460

8,720 6,624 1,567 750 0 817 247 5,057 4,416 376 2,095 837 1,258

15,352 7,000 1,916 1,400 0 516 81 5,084 4,286 759 8,352 1,562 6,790

15,831 7,260 1,558 1,385 0 173 60 5,702 4,500 1,187 8,571 1,632 6,939

13,938 7,092 1,635 1,179 0 456 92 5,457 4,088 1,316 6,846 1,707 5,139

14,176 7,077 1,500 1,100 0 400 96 5,577 4,475 1,092 7,099 1,921 5,179

11,983 7,256 1,193 851 0 341 105 6,064 5,124 936 4,726 3,046 1,680

391 0

725 0

491 0

464 0

533 0

459 0

377 0

280 0

76

BRAZIL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.5 0.9 1.0 70.7

.. 7.4 1.8 1.0 60.3

.. 8.6 1.8 0.3 68.2

.. 7.3 1.0 0.3 69.2

16.5 8.4 0.8 0.3 68.5

15.0 8.3 0.6 0.2 71.0

13.4 6.5 0.5 0.2 74.8

14.7 6.8 0.4 0.1 73.9

6,552 1,316 234 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 6,322 1,064 0 0 1,047 183 212 0 0 40 6,139 852 0 0 1,007 230 274 0 0 63 92 69 0 0 1 138 205 0 0 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 530 1,259 0 6,479 4,531 0 776 0 6,342 4,531 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION -251 5,327 8,085 -1,782 -12,344 -658 -1,727 8,804 -968 5,453 3,532 3,031 664 -2,533 -2,117 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,022 -1,571 5,358

3,476 3,903 6,904

-14,558 -11,236 2,746

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.0 12.6 3.3 4.7

8.2 11.8 3.7 8.9

7.3 7.7 2.9 9.8

8.5 12.9 9.7 2.2

6.4 9.5 4.9 13.9

7.6 12.6 6.4 15.1

7.4 10.5 8.7 12.1

6.6 13.9 10.9 16.5

8.8 13.6 3.5 6.4

7.4 15.2 4.1 14.9

5.9 19.8 4.9 25.2

5.7 8.6 1.2 13.8

4.8 10.5 2.0 21.6

3.9 18.3 5.0 37.7

2.2 11.5 4.7 39.4

2.9 16.7 3.6 39.5

9.4 9.0 7.7 9.9 7.5 10.6 10.3 8.0 3.3 15.2 8.8 7.9 3.0 3.2 2.1 14.0 6.9 7.6 0.9 2.5 4.1 -3.8 8.4 -3.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

8.2 10.4 9.3 8.0

7.5 13.2 12.8 10.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

32,426 11,489

25,462 9,897

23,198 8,885

18,560 6,875

14,438 5,723

10,527 4,625

8,369 4,110

7,646 3,571

5,596 1,192

5,273 1,038

2,653 869

2,537 792

2,593 711

2,510 617

2,272 530

2,130 448

3,452 352

3,411 237

593 123

475 110

597 99

544 76

383 62

378 51

2,144 841

1,862 801

2,060 746

2,062 681

1,996 612

1,965 541

1,889 469

1,752 398

26,830 10,297

20,189 8,859

20,545 8,015

16,023 6,083

11,845 5,013

8,018 4,008

6,096 3,579

5,516 3,123

Notes: Data source. Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed debt, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Revised data were provided by the country.

77

BULGARIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

10,890 9,834 9,834 0 0 1,056 226 5 221

10,379 9,150 8,808 342 717 512 74 5 68

11,212 8,440 7,671 769 1,322 1,450 0 0 0

10,497 8,168 7,387 782 1,110 1,219 0 0 0

11,479 8,591 7,480 1,111 1,049 1,839 0 0 0

13,425 9,575 7,749 1,826 1,188 2,663 0 0 0

15,661 11,241 7,434 3,807 1,183 3,237 0 0 0

.. .. ..

356 1 354

227 25 201

1 0 1

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

875 875 0 865 865 0 -14 -24 510 452 0 58 -523 1,374 1,316 0 58

259 259 0 565 319 246 -194 113 575 501 50 24 -769 1,140 820 296 24

995 719 276 712 573 139 465 183 584 456 63 65 -119 1,296 1,029 202 65

839 706 133 803 502 301 -195 -232 572 457 58 57 -767 1,375 959 359 57

983 874 109 1,006 753 253 598 620 391 306 31 53 207 1,396 1,059 284 53

1,042 896 145 669 562 107 1,008 636 484 395 20 69 524 1,153 957 127 69

3,054 2,977 77 1,912 1,780 132 1,717 574 543 424 31 89 1,173 2,455 2,203 163 89

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

17 11 4 0 3 1

52 -61 90 0 22 91

1,282 145 1,002 5 130 150

1,182 204 813 -9 174 104

1,165 121 905 -23 161 138

2,619 334 2,097 -23 211 182

3,596 1,197 2,005 0 393 206

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

-434 452 0

-449 501 0

719 456 107

577 457 149

631 306 228

1,674 395 551

2,609 424 563

13,291 7,588 71 9,071 3,646 -984

15,300 8,377 72 9,751 4,846 -827

19,300 11,035 67 13,586 6,826 -1,855

23,708 14,329 103 17,476 9,337 -2,053

138.3 79.0 18.1 7.5 4.3 34.7 4.8 11.6 3.5 14.6

137.0 75.0 16.7 4.7 2.6 42.2 6.0 16.0 2.9 15.8

121.7 69.6 10.5 4.4 2.5 50.8 6.0 19.8 3.2 16.8

109.3 66.1 17.1 3.8 2.3 59.6 6.4 20.7 3.0 16.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

19,087 7,070 0 8,905 .. -1,710

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

154.0 57.1 19.4 7.2 2.7 .. .. 9.7 0.7 2.0

12,681 6,926 0 7,084 1,635 -26

12,289 7,321 58 8,314 3,507 -704

4. DEBT INDICATORS 149.9 81.8 16.5 8.3 4.5 15.8 2.8 4.9 1.8 11.9

78

153.2 91.2 17.7 8.0 4.8 31.3 5.1 12.9 3.4 13.8

BULGARIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

9,834 9,834 1,669 222 0 1,447 77 8,165 327 7,084 0 0 0

9,150 8,808 2,950 1,230 0 1,720 186 5,857 5,412 394 342 0 342

8,440 7,671 2,603 1,542 6 1,061 370 5,068 4,982 26 769 0 769

8,168 7,387 2,324 1,531 8 793 361 5,063 4,979 29 782 0 782

8,591 7,480 2,467 1,808 32 659 305 5,012 4,898 49 1,111 0 1,111

9,575 7,749 2,937 2,261 83 676 352 4,812 4,659 78 1,826 58 1,768

11,241 7,434 3,286 2,633 98 652 376 4,148 3,965 105 3,807 315 3,492

.. .. .. ..

0 0 9,834 0

444 0 8,808 342

824 0 7,671 769

844 0 7,387 782

958 0 7,480 1,111

1,266 0 7,749 1,826

1,498 0 7,434 3,807

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

875 875 80 44 0 36 0 795 65 652 0 0 0

259 259 129 38 0 91 32 129 33 96 0 0 0

719 405 381 156 1 225 225 24 0 24 313 0 313

706 454 226 163 2 63 43 229 224 5 252 0 252

874 145 127 99 22 28 28 19 0 19 729 0 729

896 342 317 291 43 26 26 25 0 25 554 52 502

2,977 435 400 373 10 27 27 35 0 35 2,542 253 2,289

.. ..

0 0

15 0

71 0

88 0

39 0

185 0

204 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

865 865 23 22 0 1 0 842 0 241 0 0 0

319 319 92 25 0 67 0 228 39 182 0 0 0

573 345 297 58 0 239 50 48 46 1 229 0 229

502 402 377 126 0 252 49 25 22 1 100 0 100

753 320 236 80 0 156 17 84 79 1 433 0 433

562 350 243 144 0 99 20 106 102 1 212 0 212

1,780 1,086 273 179 1 93 17 814 802 9 693 0 693

.. ..

0 0

0 0

27 0

32 0

37 0

50 0

80 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

452 452 14 13 0 0 0 438 15 337 0 0 0

501 501 178 61 0 118 4 323 315 7 0 0 0

456 424 139 81 0 58 10 285 284 0 32 0 32

457 425 135 83 0 51 9 290 289 1 32 0 32

306 263 102 76 1 26 7 161 159 2 43 0 43

395 349 100 79 2 21 8 249 246 2 46 4 42

424 351 94 75 2 19 9 257 253 4 73 5 68

.. ..

0 0

31 0

49 0

48 0

41 0

42 0

41 0

79

BULGARIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. 6.6 0.3 7.7 42.1

.. 9.0 0.2 1.1 66.1

.. 5.5 0.1 0.3 80.1

14.9 4.6 0.0 0.1 79.0

30.4 3.9 0.0 0.1 64.3

35.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 60.0

42.7 3.5 0.0 0.0 52.6

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 201 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-716 -195 -159

982 598 356

1,946 1,008 635

2,236 1,717 251

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0 84 0 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 33 0 0 5 0 0 10 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. 753 550 192 .. -14 -194 465 .. 617 107 -215 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

9.1 3.5 2.4 2.3

5.5 15.3 5.0 24.5

6.5 15.6 4.5 20.1

6.6 10.9 5.9 18.3

3.3 24.5 3.7 46.7

3.1 15.9 5.0 41.9

3.0 16.1 4.9 42.4

.. .. .. ..

9.3 7.2 3.0 2.8

5.9 17.3 5.4 25.0

6.2 15.5 4.4 21.6

5.5 18.6 5.5 28.2

3.3 24.5 3.7 46.7

3.1 15.9 5.0 41.9

3.0 16.1 4.9 42.4

.. 9.1 3.4 7.6 7.3 3.2 .. 3.2 4.7 16.0 6.2 10.3 .. 2.3 3.2 4.9 6.2 10.3 .. 2.3 21.7 13.2 12.2 42.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,275 632

1,461 583

1,756 526

1,438 432

1,145 341

525 276

504 243

292 213

551 130

362 109

349 96

344 84

243 72

216 64

199 56

195 49

277 24

70 13

37 12

37 11

37 11

34 10

26 9

26 8

274 106

292 96

312 85

307 72

206 61

182 54

173 47

169 41

725 502

1,100 474

1,407 429

1,093 348

902 269

309 212

305 187

97 164

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data have been revised from 1996 based on data from Bulgaria National Bank. Rescheduling: Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004. It includes the effects of the exchange of Brady Bonds for Global Bonds in 2002.

80

BURKINA FASO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

513 458 458 0 10 45 2 1 0

834 749 749 0 0 84 21 14 7

1,274 1,143 1,143 0 75 56 12 11 1

1,426 1,230 1,230 0 112 84 5 4 1

1,496 1,316 1,316 0 117 63 5 4 1

1,548 1,409 1,409 0 126 13 4 2 2

1,736 1,597 1,597 0 125 14 0 0 0

1,967 1,823 1,823 0 115 29 0 0 0

12 2 10

64 34 30

37 35 3

42 38 3

38 38 0

37 37 0

39 39 0

26 26 0

55 55 0 17 15 2 56 17 13 10 0 3 43 29 25 2 3

79 79 0 19 18 1 70 10 16 10 0 6 54 34 28 1 6

139 112 27 29 29 0 124 14 20 18 0 2 104 48 46 0 2

99 91 7 33 26 7 47 -19 14 12 1 1 33 47 38 7 1

162 141 21 25 18 7 116 -20 13 10 1 2 104 38 28 7 2

148 133 14 28 20 8 70 -50 17 14 1 2 53 45 34 9 2

127 122 5 32 28 3 100 5 16 15 1 0 84 48 43 4 0

221 216 5 42 39 3 194 15 17 16 1 1 177 59 55 3 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

126 40 -1 0 87 70

219 60 0 0 158 112

335 83 10 0 242 123

297 65 23 -3 212 77

332 123 9 1 200 84

363 113 15 0 235 81

444 94 29 0 321 105

589 177 35 0 377 105

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

116 10 1

203 10 6

317 18 0

282 12 3

318 10 5

348 14 0

428 15 0

572 16 0

2,596 313 67 691 244 -319

2,808 319 50 690 261 -291

3,196 330 50 726 313 -324

4,178 464 50 990 752 -449

4,821 .. 50 .. 669 ..

455.6 54.9 15.0 4.4 0.5 17.1 4.2 5.9 82.3 72.1

469.3 53.3 11.9 4.0 0.5 17.4 4.5 4.2 84.1 72.4

468.5 48.4 13.6 5.1 0.5 20.2 5.2 0.8 87.3 81.2

374.0 41.5 10.3 3.5 0.4 43.3 9.1 0.8 89.3 83.5

.. 40.8 .. .. 0.4 34.0 .. 1.5 91.2 85.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,608 293 126 496 143 -63

3,113 506 140 776 305 -77

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

174.8 31.9 10.0 4.4 0.8 27.9 3.5 8.7 66.8 53.1

164.6 26.8 6.8 3.1 0.5 36.6 4.7 10.1 71.6 67.7

2,453 .. 80 .. 347 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 51.9 .. .. 0.8 27.3 .. 4.4 79.1 77.2

81

BURKINA FASO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

458 458 422 272 244 150 98 36 0 2 0 0 0

749 749 711 565 460 147 138 38 0 1 0 0 0

1,143 1,143 1,139 984 916 154 92 5 0 0 0 0 0

1,230 1,230 1,226 1,028 992 198 182 3 0 0 0 0 0

1,316 1,316 1,316 1,083 1,049 234 209 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,409 1,409 1,409 1,258 1,224 151 128 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,597 1,597 1,597 1,450 1,418 147 132 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,823 1,823 1,823 1,689 1,663 134 131 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 149 456 1

0 282 749 1

0 608 1,143 0

0 593 1,230 0

0 636 1,316 0

0 745 1,409 0

0 861 1,597 0

0 1,027 1,823 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

55 55 54 36 32 18 17 2 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 79 45 34 34 34 0 0 0 0 0 0

112 112 112 106 104 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

91 91 91 76 74 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

141 141 141 117 113 24 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

133 133 133 126 123 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

122 122 122 109 108 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

216 216 216 202 198 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 21

0 15

0 85

0 38

0 71

0 68

0 55

0 132

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

15 15 4 3 2 1 0 11 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 13 10 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 29 29 24 16 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 26 26 20 16 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 14 11 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 20 20 17 13 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 28 20 18 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

39 39 39 21 19 18 17 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 1

0 4

0 1

0 2

0 2

0 3

0 4

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

10 10 8 3 2 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 7 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 11 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 10 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 7 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 12 11 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 15 12 11 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 13 13 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 4

0 4

0 2

0 4

0 5

0 7

82

BURKINA FASO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.7 0.0 37.7

.. 0.0 0.5 0.0 39.2

.. 0.0 0.3 0.0 55.6

.. 0.0 0.1 0.0 59.3

4.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 60.5

3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.4

3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.6

2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.8

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 17 3 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 15 4 12 0 0 0 5 7 0 0 0 161 0 0 0 0 92 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 103 116 139 -161 70 56 70 124 47 116 40 25 -20 -229 -56 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 2 47 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 3 12 0

119 113 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 2 0 0

52 70 84

188 100 97

231 194 51

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.2 37.7 8.4 64.6

2.5 27.6 8.7 59.1

0.8 39.9 10.4 80.8

1.4 37.1 7.8 70.2

0.9 39.0 10.0 76.8

1.4 33.6 8.1 69.6

0.8 43.5 9.9 79.8

0.8 35.9 8.5 73.4

2.2 37.7 8.4 64.6

2.5 27.6 8.7 59.1

0.8 39.9 10.4 80.8

1.4 37.1 7.8 70.2

0.9 39.0 10.0 76.8

1.4 33.6 8.1 69.6

0.8 43.5 9.9 79.8

0.8 35.9 8.5 73.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

58 19

58 22

58 22

63 22

68 21

69 21

71 20

79 19

58 19

58 22

58 22

63 22

68 21

69 21

71 20

79 19

14 2

17 4

15 4

15 4

17 3

16 3

15 3

14 2

45 17

40 17

43 18

47 18

50 18

52 18

56 17

64 17

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

83

BURUNDI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

455 409 409 0 15 32 1 0 0

907 851 851 0 43 13 0 0 0

1,162 1,099 1,099 0 48 15 2 2 0

1,108 1,036 1,036 0 7 65 20 20 0

1,076 986 986 0 2 88 27 27 0

1,214 1,104 1,104 0 13 96 36 36 0

1,328 1,252 1,252 0 29 48 48 48 0

1,385 1,325 1,325 0 41 19 19 19 0

7 6 0

0 0 0

3 3 0

82 81 1

79 79 0

96 96 0

114 114 0

62 62 1

72 72 0 16 12 3 75 19 11 9 0 2 64 26 21 3 2

96 96 0 28 28 1 65 -3 14 12 0 2 51 42 40 1 2

45 45 0 27 18 9 26 8 12 11 0 1 14 39 29 9 1

41 41 0 14 9 5 18 -9 8 4 0 3 10 22 14 5 3

15 15 0 16 12 4 14 16 7 5 0 2 8 23 17 4 2

55 43 12 17 14 3 38 -1 7 5 0 2 31 23 19 3 2

73 60 13 21 21 0 -8 -60 8 7 0 1 -16 29 28 0 1

86 47 39 71 43 29 14 0 17 16 0 0 -2 88 59 29 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

102 59 1 0 43 46

204 68 1 0 135 60

258 27 2 0 229 44

103 32 12 0 59 15

137 3 0 0 134 11

157 29 0 0 128 25

208 39 0 0 170 31

256 4 3 0 249 29

94 9 0

189 12 3

244 11 3

86 4 12

119 5 13

143 5 10

186 7 15

228 16 0

663 55 0 165 38 -50

679 46 0 162 18 -37

614 38 0 161 59 -5

575 44 0 194 67 -25

643 .. 0 .. 66 ..

1,999.7 167.0 39.4 14.2 1.2 3.4 2.7 5.9 91.0 80.4

2,327.9 158.6 49.7 14.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 8.2 88.9 80.2

3,182.4 197.7 61.1 17.8 1.1 4.9 4.4 7.9 88.2 78.9

2,992.1 230.9 66.0 17.8 1.4 5.1 4.2 3.6 90.9 81.4

.. 215.6 .. .. 2.6 4.8 .. 1.4 93.0 82.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,132 128 0 259 35 -41

1,117 98 0 341 112 -69

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

354.5 40.2 20.4 8.3 0.9 7.7 1.6 6.9 74.9 54.2

928.7 81.2 43.4 14.4 1.3 12.3 3.9 1.5 85.9 72.7

988 140 0 282 216 10

4. DEBT INDICATORS 831.6 117.6 27.6 8.5 1.2 18.6 9.2 1.3 90.5 80.1

84

BURUNDI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

409 409 382 247 210 136 131 27 0 22 0 0 0

851 851 842 660 597 182 182 9 0 1 0 0 0

1,099 1,099 1,098 930 884 167 167 2 0 0 0 0 0

1,036 1,036 1,032 890 866 142 142 4 0 0 0 0 0

986 986 980 863 840 117 117 5 0 0 0 0 0

1,104 1,104 1,101 958 932 143 139 4 0 0 0 0 0

1,252 1,252 1,241 1,081 1,051 160 156 11 0 0 0 0 0

1,325 1,325 1,318 1,137 1,112 181 177 7 0 0 0 0 0

0 140 409 0

0 398 849 2

0 591 1,099 0

0 600 1,036 0

0 582 986 0

0 648 1,104 0

0 732 1,252 0

0 793 1,325 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

72 72 70 43 36 27 24 1 0 1 0 0 0

96 96 93 64 60 30 30 2 0 0 0 0 0

45 45 45 41 40 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

41 41 38 38 38 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 13 13 13 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

43 43 43 39 39 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 60 49 49 49 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 0

47 47 47 47 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 19

0 49

0 27

0 36

0 12

0 36

0 41

0 43

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

12 12 8 5 4 4 4 4 0 4 0 0 0

28 28 19 11 6 8 8 8 0 5 0 0 0

18 18 17 12 8 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 11 11 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 12 12 12 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 18 17 17 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0

43 43 38 38 31 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0

0 2

0 1

0 3

0 9

0 10

0 11

0 14

0 14

9 9 7 4 2 3 2 2 0 2 0 0 0

12 12 11 9 5 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0

11 11 11 9 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 7 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 15 14 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 3

0 5

0 4

0 4

0 4

0 5

0 6

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

85

BURUNDI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.1 0.9 36.9

.. 2.0 0.0 0.0 50.3

.. 2.9 0.0 0.0 55.1

.. 2.8 0.0 0.0 59.4

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 105 16 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 107 18 35 -27 75 65 26 18 19 26 -30 -38 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

8.7 2.5 0.0 0.0 60.7

9.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 60.3

9.8 2.5 0.0 0.0 60.4

11.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 61.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

54 0 35 35 0 20 20 0 1 0 0 0

-32 14 -24

137 38 61

114 -8 77

57 14 45

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.4 37.8 9.2 69.2

0.9 40.1 10.3 78.7

0.8 38.0 9.9 78.4

1.8 34.2 8.8 68.5

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 40.3 10.5 80.9

1.3 38.4 9.3 70.2

0.9 40.1 10.3 78.7

0.8 38.0 9.9 78.4

1.8 34.2 8.8 68.5

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 40.3 10.5 80.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

43 11

43 12

43 12

40 11

43 11

41 11

43 10

44 10

41 11

41 12

41 11

38 11

41 11

39 11

42 10

42 10

13 3

13 3

11 3

9 3

8 2

5 2

5 2

4 2

28 9

29 9

30 9

30 8

33 8

34 8

37 8

38 8

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 0

2 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

86

CAMBODIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,845 1,683 1,683 0 27 136 103 102 0

2,284 2,110 2,110 0 72 102 90 90 0

2,628 2,328 2,328 0 73 227 131 131 0

2,697 2,393 2,393 0 80 224 145 145 0

2,900 2,587 2,587 0 96 217 192 192 0

3,139 2,814 2,814 0 104 221 207 207 0

3,377 3,016 3,016 0 97 264 228 228 0

.. .. ..

393 393 0

653 653 0

1,275 1,275 0

1,318 1,318 0

1,359 1,359 0

1,401 1,401 0

1,444 1,444 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 30 29 0 1 -15 30 29 0 1

123 80 42 5 5 0 100 -18 3 1 1 1 97 7 6 1 1

90 79 11 14 7 7 128 52 18 12 1 5 110 32 19 7 5

113 92 21 13 1 12 85 -16 9 5 1 4 76 22 5 13 4

169 147 22 14 1 12 101 -54 8 6 1 1 93 21 7 13 1

170 158 12 16 3 13 143 -10 9 8 1 0 134 25 11 14 0

161 161 0 15 5 10 167 21 12 11 0 1 155 27 16 11 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

23 0 0 0 23 19

539 75 151 0 312 143

421 72 148 0 201 102

435 91 149 0 194 122

472 146 145 0 180 136

428 155 84 0 189 164

462 156 131 0 175 157

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

-6 29 0

541 1 -4

286 12 123

294 5 136

307 6 159

260 8 160

247 11 205

3,533 2,557 121 3,310 611 -428

3,651 3,182 133 3,973 697 -506

3,914 2,529 140 2,920 913 -64

4,166 2,722 138 3,201 982 -128

4,659 3,435 177 3,950 1,118 -217

102.8 74.4 1.2 0.7 0.5 23.3 2.2 8.6 88.2 14.5

84.7 73.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 25.9 2.1 8.3 88.4 16.4

114.7 74.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 31.5 3.8 7.5 88.9 21.0

115.3 75.3 0.9 0.3 0.2 31.3 3.7 7.1 89.3 25.5

98.3 72.5 0.8 0.3 0.3 33.1 3.4 7.8 89.0 28.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,115 .. 0 .. .. ..

3,386 989 12 1,442 192 -186

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 165.5 .. .. 2.7 .. .. 7.3 91.2 0.1

230.9 67.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 8.4 1.6 4.5 90.4 5.2

87

CAMBODIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,683 1,683 1,683 1 1 1,681 1,681 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,110 2,110 2,097 118 118 1,979 1,946 13 0 0 0 0 0

2,328 2,328 2,328 381 381 1,947 1,938 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,393 2,393 2,393 442 442 1,951 1,942 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,587 2,587 2,587 609 609 1,978 1,969 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,814 2,814 2,814 801 801 2,013 2,002 0 0 0 0 0 0

3,016 3,016 3,016 950 950 2,066 2,055 0 0 0 0 0 0

.. .. .. ..

0 0 1,683 0

0 65 2,110 0

0 207 2,328 0

0 238 2,393 0

0 306 2,587 0

0 400 2,814 0

0 467 3,016 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

80 80 64 61 61 4 4 16 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 79 78 78 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

92 92 92 85 85 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

147 147 147 124 124 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

158 158 158 129 129 29 29 0 0 0 0 0 0

161 161 161 112 112 49 49 0 0 0 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 25

0 37

0 40

0 47

0 63

0 48

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 2 0 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

29 29 29 0 0 29 29 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 3 3 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 6 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 11 11 8 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 1

0 1

0 2

0 2

0 4

88

CAMBODIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.6

.. 0.4 0.0 0.0 27.2

.. 0.3 0.0 0.0 30.2

0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 31.6

0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 34.7

0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 38.0

0.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 40.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

69 85 -29

204 101 54

239 143 80

238 167 51

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 224 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 109 0 .. 0 108 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 103 0 .. 0 103 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 5 0 .. 0 7 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. 166 375 111 .. 15 100 128 .. 4 0 -28 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 37.5 9.7 69.8

1.3 30.3 8.2 68.6

0.9 34.5 9.9 76.8

1.1 30.5 8.8 71.6

1.0 33.0 9.6 74.8

0.9 30.3 8.9 73.1

.. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 37.5 9.7 69.8

1.3 30.3 8.2 68.6

0.9 34.5 9.9 76.8

1.1 30.5 8.8 71.6

1.0 33.0 9.6 74.8

0.9 30.3 8.9 73.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

51 23

52 24

53 26

59 26

60 26

62 26

68 25

68 24

51 23

52 24

53 26

59 26

60 26

62 26

68 25

68 24

45 11

42 11

40 11

40 11

36 10

31 10

33 9

28 9

6 11

10 12

13 15

19 15

24 16

31 16

35 16

40 16

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

89

CAMEROON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,167 2,593 2,212 381 27 546 31 4 27

6,657 5,577 5,347 230 121 960 191 87 105

9,425 8,338 8,050 288 51 1,036 395 247 147

9,294 7,758 7,441 317 235 1,301 282 144 138

8,399 7,197 6,971 226 244 958 178 94 84

8,553 7,467 7,290 177 307 779 186 75 111

9,414 8,660 8,045 615 347 407 123 78 45

9,496 8,557 7,924 632 333 606 213 83 130

27 2 25

350 103 246

619 243 376

564 265 299

263 148 115

319 182 137

258 209 49

296 225 71

330 330 0 474 468 6 -10 134 180 145 0 35 -190 654 613 6 35

713 713 0 268 267 1 682 237 250 197 11 42 432 518 463 13 42

175 162 13 216 210 6 119 160 214 173 2 38 -95 430 383 8 38

354 286 69 268 250 17 -18 -105 288 215 2 72 -307 556 465 19 72

170 150 20 183 181 2 -253 -239 152 117 1 34 -404 335 298 3 34

155 114 41 192 192 0 -223 -187 156 128 2 25 -379 347 320 2 25

167 145 22 263 252 11 -404 -308 185 171 2 13 -590 449 423 13 13

273 273 0 403 380 23 -22 109 242 228 2 12 -264 645 608 25 12

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

222 -138 316 0 43 63

646 447 -113 0 313 126

164 -48 7 0 205 124

208 36 0 0 172 94

187 -32 0 0 219 106

313 -77 0 0 391 115

693 -107 0 0 800 138

481 -107 0 0 588 152

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-265 145 342

311 197 139

-29 173 21

-7 215 0

71 117 0

185 128 0

522 171 0

253 228 0

8,284 .. 11 .. 220 ..

7,887 .. 11 .. 340 ..

9,223 .. 11 .. 640 ..

11,961 .. 11 .. 652 ..

14,017 .. 11 .. 842 ..

.. 112.2 .. .. 3.5 2.4 .. 14.0 45.9 15.2

.. 106.5 .. .. 1.9 4.0 .. 11.4 50.5 16.2

.. 92.7 .. .. 1.7 7.5 .. 9.1 53.1 16.6

.. 78.7 .. .. 1.6 6.9 .. 4.3 55.3 16.7

.. 67.7 .. .. 1.7 8.9 .. 6.4 56.9 18.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

7,894 2,173 12 2,706 142 -562

10,674 2,535 23 3,041 37 -551

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

145.7 40.1 30.1 8.3 2.3 4.5 0.6 17.3 34.2 21.8

262.6 62.4 20.5 9.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 14.4 27.4 19.5

7,435 2,062 11 2,032 15 90

4. DEBT INDICATORS 457.2 126.8 20.8 10.4 2.9 0.2 0.1 11.0 44.1 17.6

90

CAMEROON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,593 2,212 1,655 690 305 965 778 557 0 118 381 0 381

5,577 5,347 3,864 1,298 341 2,566 1,486 1,483 0 503 230 0 230

8,338 8,050 7,152 1,663 611 5,489 3,545 898 0 418 288 0 288

7,758 7,441 7,111 1,413 955 5,698 3,310 330 0 256 317 0 317

7,197 6,971 6,815 1,358 951 5,457 3,290 156 0 101 226 0 226

7,467 7,290 7,119 1,423 1,078 5,696 3,464 171 0 117 177 0 177

8,660 8,045 7,960 1,574 1,213 6,386 3,993 85 0 39 615 0 615

8,557 7,924 7,837 1,734 1,421 6,102 3,982 88 0 41 632 0 632

280 227 2,174 419

633 238 5,224 353

624 443 7,973 365

214 769 7,394 364

176 758 6,971 226

141 847 7,290 177

145 944 8,045 615

117 1,083 7,924 632

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

330 218 169 73 4 96 84 49 0 0 112 0 112

713 661 554 195 2 359 106 107 0 10 53 0 53

162 162 162 81 38 80 80 0 0 0 0 0 0

286 247 247 115 104 133 126 0 0 0 39 0 39

150 150 150 71 41 79 78 0 0 0 0 0 0

114 114 114 73 72 41 41 0 0 0 0 0 0

145 133 133 105 55 28 28 0 0 0 12 0 12

273 199 199 175 169 23 23 0 0 0 74 0 74

43 4

70 0

6 35

0 55

13 20

1 50

35 36

5 107

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

468 146 66 26 3 40 16 80 0 14 322 0 322

267 137 96 66 6 29 17 41 0 28 130 0 130

210 182 145 129 9 16 3 36 0 25 28 0 28

250 164 160 95 16 65 45 4 0 4 86 0 86

181 90 90 48 16 42 37 0 0 0 91 0 91

192 143 143 74 16 69 61 0 0 0 49 0 49

252 192 179 69 16 110 98 13 0 11 60 0 60

380 331 330 83 19 247 198 1 0 1 49 0 49

15 1

40 3

90 4

52 7

21 7

22 8

35 7

34 10

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

145 105 65 28 3 37 22 40 0 12 40 0 40

197 180 124 71 4 52 28 56 0 40 17 0 17

173 162 152 80 6 72 48 10 0 5 11 0 11

215 198 198 48 7 150 59 1 0 1 17 0 17

117 105 105 32 8 73 28 0 0 0 12 0 12

128 121 121 43 9 78 37 0 0 0 8 0 8

171 124 124 31 9 93 49 0 0 0 47 0 47

228 180 178 33 13 145 96 2 0 2 48 0 48

19 2

48 2

55 3

22 5

18 6

14 6

10 6

7 9

91

CAMEROON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 2.3 0.3 19.4

.. 0.3 2.3 1.1 11.1

.. 0.3 1.0 1.1 10.8

.. 0.5 1.8 0.7 27.3

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. 75 642 158 .. 0 0 0 .. 26 294 20 .. 7 204 9 .. 19 90 12 .. 22 154 16 .. 6 131 15 .. 16 23 0 .. 10 0 4 .. 0 0 2 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 266 1,233 1,171 -185 -10 682 119 -18 194 336 277 -420 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

58.9 0.9 1.5 0.7 29.5

59.4 1.1 1.5 0.8 29.1

61.3 1.1 1.3 0.8 27.6

59.8 1.1 1.2 0.7 28.7

263 0 138 61 77 83 44 39 411 244 0 0

41 0 30 29 1 22 22 0 193 82 0 0

73 0 37 37 0 21 21 0 308 104 0 0

53 0 32 32 0 21 21 0 222 26 0 0

-895 -253 -298

154 -223 892

861 -404 1,036

82 -22 468

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.6 17.4 5.0 14.8

6.6 15.2 5.3 21.4

2.6 23.3 7.7 53.7

0.7 42.6 9.8 80.2

2.5 30.3 9.7 59.7

0.9 33.9 9.0 74.5

0.9 22.5 6.2 63.7

1.5 41.5 9.0 72.4

7.2 19.2 5.4 17.6

6.6 15.3 5.3 21.4

2.6 23.3 7.7 53.7

0.7 42.6 9.8 80.2

2.5 30.3 9.7 59.7

0.9 33.9 9.0 74.5

0.9 22.5 6.2 63.7

1.5 41.5 9.0 72.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.5 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

602 311

617 288

526 258

517 234

480 214

404 191

356 172

323 159

537 260

510 238

440 220

439 205

407 193

337 179

342 166

310 154

446 231

422 211

363 195

361 181

325 173

267 160

274 150

249 140

91 28

88 27

77 26

78 23

82 21

70 18

69 16

60 15

65 51

107 50

86 38

78 29

73 21

67 13

14 5

14 4

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

92

CAPE VERDE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

94.9 93.9 93.9 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

133.8 129.1 129.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 2.3 1.9 0.4

214.3 185.0 185.0 0.0 0.0 29.3 4.7 4.0 0.7

327.2 314.6 314.6 0.0 0.0 12.6 4.0 4.0 0.0

360.7 341.3 341.3 0.0 0.0 19.4 3.7 3.4 0.3

413.5 385.0 385.0 0.0 3.3 25.2 3.3 3.1 0.3

486.3 441.4 441.4 0.0 7.3 37.6 3.0 3.0 0.1

517.0 463.0 463.0 0.0 9.6 44.5 3.1 3.0 0.1

0.4 0.4 0.0

11.1 10.4 0.7

20.0 18.5 1.6

34.1 32.9 1.2

26.4 25.8 0.6

24.4 23.4 1.0

24.3 23.2 1.1

24.2 23.4 0.7

17.7 17.7 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 16.6 1.0 3.0 2.6 0.0 0.4 13.6 5.1 4.7 0.0 0.4

12.1 12.1 0.0 3.7 3.7 0.0 10.7 2.4 2.0 1.9 0.0 0.1 8.7 5.7 5.6 0.0 0.1

21.4 21.4 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 34.5 18.7 4.1 3.4 0.0 0.8 30.4 9.6 8.9 0.0 0.8

28.8 28.8 0.0 11.1 11.1 0.0 10.7 -7.1 5.0 4.8 0.0 0.3 5.6 16.1 15.9 0.0 0.3

51.5 51.5 0.0 9.8 9.8 0.0 48.8 7.0 4.2 3.6 0.0 0.6 44.6 14.0 13.4 0.0 0.6

37.7 34.5 3.2 14.3 14.3 0.0 29.5 6.1 7.4 6.6 0.0 0.8 22.1 21.7 20.9 0.0 0.8

38.8 35.4 3.4 14.6 14.6 0.0 36.9 12.8 5.7 4.7 0.0 1.0 31.3 20.3 19.3 0.0 1.0

25.1 23.3 1.8 18.7 18.7 0.0 13.2 6.8 6.8 5.5 0.0 1.2 6.5 25.5 24.2 0.0 1.2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

52.6 15.6 0.0 0.0 37.0 19.1

85.8 8.3 0.0 0.0 77.5 18.0

103.2 15.9 26.0 0.0 61.4 40.4

94.3 17.7 33.0 0.0 43.6 29.6

74.2 41.7 9.0 0.0 23.5 18.2

76.8 20.2 15.0 0.0 41.7 21.4

93.0 20.7 15.0 0.0 57.2 56.7

96.4 4.6 20.5 0.0 71.3 43.3

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

50.0 2.6 0.0

83.9 1.9 0.0

99.4 3.4 0.5

84.4 4.8 5.1

69.2 3.6 1.4

66.1 6.6 4.1

86.1 4.7 2.2

88.0 5.5 0.0

520.0 236.6 87.0 343.6 28.3 -58.0

544.1 254.1 81.0 363.2 45.4 -55.7

604.6 285.7 85.0 438.4 79.8 -71.5

785.7 382.1 92.0 577.0 93.6 -77.2

937.4 .. 92.0 .. 139.5 ..

138.3 62.9 6.8 2.1 1.0 8.6 1.0 3.9 82.1 70.0

141.9 66.3 5.5 1.6 0.8 12.6 1.5 5.4 84.1 66.8

144.7 68.4 7.6 2.6 1.2 19.3 2.2 6.1 83.6 67.6

127.3 61.9 5.3 1.5 0.7 19.2 1.9 7.7 81.6 67.7

.. 55.2 .. .. 0.7 27.0 .. 8.6 81.9 69.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. 53.6 21.0 101.3 55.4 -8.9

340.5 119.3 59.0 153.1 77.0 -3.8

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

177.1 .. 9.6 5.6 .. 58.3 6.6 1.1 62.5 57.5

112.1 39.3 4.8 1.7 0.6 57.5 6.0 3.5 70.2 65.0

485.3 191.4 106.0 300.7 36.9 -61.6

4. DEBT INDICATORS 111.9 44.2 5.0 2.2 0.8 17.2 1.5 13.7 68.6 67.2

93

CAPE VERDE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

93.9 93.9 91.5 54.6 36.7 36.9 22.7 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

129.1 129.1 126.6 87.0 68.4 39.6 25.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

185.0 185.0 178.6 143.9 122.6 34.6 24.5 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

314.6 314.6 307.1 229.2 220.0 77.9 48.4 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

341.3 341.3 325.3 240.8 232.7 84.5 70.8 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

385.0 385.0 365.2 279.6 273.2 85.6 72.6 19.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

441.4 441.4 416.0 329.4 322.1 86.6 75.0 25.4 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

463.0 463.0 440.6 357.9 351.4 82.7 71.8 22.4 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 3.0 93.9 0.0

0.0 13.6 129.1 0.0

0.0 33.0 185.0 0.0

0.0 97.9 314.6 0.0

0.0 109.6 341.3 0.0

0.0 140.4 385.0 0.0

0.0 173.3 441.4 0.0

0.0 194.6 463.0 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

17.7 17.7 16.7 11.2 10.1 5.5 5.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.1 12.1 12.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

21.4 21.4 17.1 14.9 13.7 2.2 2.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

28.8 28.8 28.8 23.5 23.5 5.3 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

51.5 51.5 40.4 24.9 24.9 15.5 15.5 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

34.5 34.5 30.1 30.1 30.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

35.4 35.4 29.6 29.5 29.5 0.1 0.1 5.8 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.3 23.3 23.3 22.4 22.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.5

0.0 2.0

0.0 6.0

0.0 10.4

0.0 16.0

0.0 22.0

0.0 19.0

0.0 13.8

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.1 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.7 3.7 3.6 2.5 1.0 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.5 5.5 5.5 4.8 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.1 11.1 9.3 6.1 4.8 3.2 2.2 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.8 9.8 7.1 5.0 4.2 2.2 1.4 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.3 14.3 11.4 8.1 5.9 3.3 2.6 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.6 14.6 10.9 6.5 5.4 4.5 3.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

18.7 18.7 14.2 7.3 6.0 6.9 6.2 4.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.7

0.0 1.1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.6 2.6 2.5 1.3 0.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.9 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.8 4.8 3.9 2.7 2.3 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.6 3.6 3.2 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.6 6.6 5.5 3.7 3.3 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.7 4.7 4.4 3.0 2.8 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.5 5.5 5.1 3.7 3.5 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.9

0.0 1.1

0.0 1.

94

CAPE VERDE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.6

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.5

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.4

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 18.7 7.7 38.0 -0.2 16.6 10.7 34.5 10.7 -0.5 2.9 1.3 -7.0 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.0

12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.7

13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.4

12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.4

15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

33.5 48.8 -4.1

52.8 29.5 17.6

72.8 36.9 23.2

30.7 13.2 12.5

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.8 33.2 7.9 57.8

1.5 42.6 9.1 73.0

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

3.1 28.7 5.8 50.2

2.7 20.5 4.8 45.9

0.9 40.1 9.6 76.3

1.3 26.8 6.1 58.1

2.3 24.1 5.4 48.6

2.8 33.2 7.9 57.8

1.5 42.6 9.1 73.0

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.8 45.9 9.3 80.1

1.3 26.1 6.1 60.1

0.9 42.9 10.3 80.2

1.3 26.8 6.1 58.1

2.6 27.8 6.2 55.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 5.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 8.5 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.6 16.0 30.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.5 0.5 6.9

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

29.6 6.1

26.3 6.0

24.5 5.7

25.2 5.4

26.1 5.0

24.2 4.6

22.9 4.1

16.9 3.7

23.8 5.3

20.5 5.3

20.2 5.2

20.9 5.0

22.1 4.8

20.4 4.4

20.6 4.1

16.4 3.7

9.4 1.4

9.4 1.2

8.9 1.1

8.7 0.9

8.7 0.7

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.4

2.1 0.3

14.5 3.9

11.1 4.1

11.3 4.2

12.2 4.1

13.4 4.0

14.3 3.9

14.4 3.6

14.3 3.4

5.8 0.8

5.8 0.7

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.4

4.0 0.3

3.7 0.2

2.4 0.1

0.5 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are partially based on the reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

95

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

344 286 286 0 39 18 1 0 1

699 624 624 0 37 38 15 13 2

946 854 854 0 35 57 36 32 4

858 796 796 0 21 41 25 24 1

822 757 757 0 31 34 25 24 1

1,065 980 980 0 33 52 43 40 3

1,038 900 900 0 36 101 89 82 7

1,078 926 926 0 44 107 98 91 7

2 0 2

23 20 4

74 61 14

96 84 13

96 83 13

130 104 26

174 144 30

204 174 30

59 47 11 16 5 11 47 5 10 7 2 1 37 26 12 13 1

121 113 8 17 8 10 107 3 12 9 1 2 95 29 17 11 2

33 33 0 10 3 7 25 2 6 4 1 1 19 16 6 8 1

16 16 0 8 7 1 -14 -22 6 4 0 1 -20 14 12 1 1

11 0 10 9 9 0 -5 -6 4 4 0 0 -9 13 13 0 0

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0

8 0 8 15 12 2 -9 -3 3 3 0 0 -12 18 15 3 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

79 43 3 0 33 34

192 105 1 0 86 56

146 30 6 0 110 47

65 9 1 0 56 22

55 -9 5 0 59 22

51 0 6 0 45 21

36 0 3 0 33 24

54 -12 -13 0 79 35

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

72 7 0

181 9 2

142 4 0

61 4 0

51 4 0

51 0 0

36 0 0

51 3 0

942 .. 0 .. 136 ..

965 .. 0 .. 122 ..

1,039 .. 0 .. 127 ..

1,192 .. 0 .. 137 ..

1,318 .. 0 .. 153 ..

.. 91.1 .. .. 0.6 15.9 .. 4.7 83.3 68.0

.. 85.2 .. .. 0.4 14.8 .. 4.2 82.5 67.0

.. 102.5 .. .. 0.1 11.9 .. 4.9 69.9 54.9

.. 87.0 .. .. 0.0 13.2 .. 9.7 78.5 62.4

.. 81.8 .. .. 0.3 14.2 .. 10.0 78.2 62.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

858 184 0 290 53 -49

1,465 220 0 433 123 -89

186.2 40.1 14.2 5.4 1.2 15.5 2.2 5.3 54.2 36.0

317.0 47.7 13.2 5.3 0.8 17.6 3.4 5.4 73.1 65.2

1,101 .. 0 .. 238 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. 85.9 .. .. 0.5 25.2 .. 6.0 80.9 67.3

96

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

286 286 263 124 113 139 73 24 0 0 0 0 0

624 624 603 456 429 147 81 22 0 0 0 0 0

854 854 836 636 622 199 143 18 0 0 0 0 0

796 796 763 583 572 180 143 33 0 0 0 0 0

757 757 724 550 540 174 138 33 0 0 0 0 0

980 980 946 585 573 361 172 34 0 0 0 0 0

900 900 866 647 636 219 179 34 0 0 0 0 0

926 926 896 677 664 219 178 30 0 0 0 0 0

0 63 286 1

0 265 624 0

0 414 854 0

0 391 795 1

0 372 756 1

0 399 979 1

0 435 899 1

0 455 925 2

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

47 47 47 26 23 21 21 1 0 0 0 0 0

113 113 113 95 94 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 33 33 33 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 11

0 70

0 30

0 13

0 0

0 1

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5 5 4 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 7 3 2 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 7 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 8 2 2 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 1

0 6

0 6

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

7 7 6 2 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 8 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 3

0 3

0 3

0 0

0 0

0 0

97

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.2 3.4 28.0

.. 0.7 0.1 2.6 43.6

.. 0.7 0.0 2.8 56.2

.. 0.7 0.1 2.2 61.2

5.2 0.6 0.1 2.1 61.9

5.2 0.5 0.1 2.1 51.1

6.9 0.6 0.1 2.6 58.5

6.9 0.6 0.1 2.6 58.2

2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-36 -5 -19

243 0 46

-27 3 61

40 -9 33

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

10 4 8 3 0 0 0 0 10 3 4 2 9 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 153 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 80 5 58 -51 47 107 25 -14 23 38 -35 -34 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS 3.6 24.4 6.9 46.8

1.0 37.6 10.2 77.0

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.8 39.5 10.0 80.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.3 25.3 7.1 48.8

1.0 37.6 10.2 77.0

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.8 39.5 10.0 80.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

31 8

31 8

22 7

23 7

24 7

25 6

28 6

28 6

31 8

31 8

22 7

23 7

24 7

25 6

28 6

28 6

16 3

16 3

5 2

5 2

6 2

5 2

5 2

5 2

15 5

15 5

16 5

17 5

18 5

20 4

23 4

24 4

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

98

CHAD (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

216 184 184 0 12 20 17 10 7

529 469 469 0 30 30 6 4 2

912 843 843 0 49 20 12 12 0

1,138 1,031 1,031 0 78 29 14 14 0

1,136 1,024 1,024 0 89 23 10 10 0

1,323 1,191 1,191 0 107 26 12 12 1

1,590 1,462 1,462 0 106 23 14 13 1

1,701 1,582 1,582 0 96 23 15 14 1

42 21 21

16 14 3

36 36 0

57 54 3

51 49 3

62 58 3

60 57 3

40 35 5

17 10 7 15 10 5 4 2 2 2 0 0 1 17 12 5 0

112 104 8 7 3 4 108 2 5 3 0 2 103 12 6 4 2

73 61 13 10 3 7 64 0 6 4 1 1 58 16 7 8 1

59 46 14 15 14 1 43 -2 11 10 0 1 32 26 24 1 1

74 57 17 16 15 1 56 -2 7 7 0 1 49 23 21 2 1

122 105 17 15 10 5 108 1 11 10 0 0 97 26 20 5 0

188 181 7 33 20 13 151 -4 14 13 1 0 137 47 33 14 0

113 113 0 32 19 13 80 -1 14 13 1 0 66 46 32 14 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

179 -1 54 0 126 43

247 101 0 0 147 58

211 58 33 0 121 63

207 31 115 0 61 32

597 43 460 0 94 29

1,118 95 924 0 100 34

985 161 713 0 112 42

783 94 478 0 211 44

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

176 2 0

244 3 0

207 4 0

198 10 0

590 7 0

1,108 10 0

973 13 0

771 13 0

1,371 .. 0 .. 114 ..

1,646 .. 0 .. 125 ..

1,977 .. 0 .. 223 ..

2,335 .. 0 .. 192 ..

2,699 .. 0 .. 227 ..

.. 83.0 .. .. 0.8 10.0 .. 2.5 81.3 75.6

.. 69.1 .. .. 0.4 11.0 .. 2.1 81.6 75.9

.. 66.9 .. .. 0.6 16.8 .. 1.9 82.5 77.4

.. 68.1 .. .. 0.6 12.1 .. 1.4 81.8 79.5

.. 63.0 .. .. 0.5 13.3 .. 1.4 83.6 81.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,036 100 0 327 37 -87

1,721 274 0 511 132 -46

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

217.5 20.9 17.5 2.5 0.2 17.1 1.4 9.3 61.5 41.3

192.9 30.7 4.4 1.9 0.3 25.0 3.1 5.6 76.9 63.7

1,411 .. 0 .. 147 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 64.7 .. .. 0.4 16.1 .. 2.2 77.1 75.1

99

CHAD (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

184 184 155 89 88 65 45 30 0 0 0 0 0

469 469 460 337 327 123 80 9 0 0 0 0 0

843 843 841 685 635 156 69 2 0 0 0 0 0

1,031 1,031 1,016 861 835 156 90 15 0 0 0 0 0

1,024 1,024 1,010 863 830 147 97 14 0 0 0 0 0

1,191 1,191 1,178 1,024 987 154 105 13 0 0 0 0 0

1,462 1,462 1,428 1,264 1,188 165 113 33 0 0 0 0 0

1,582 1,582 1,549 1,387 1,309 162 114 33 0 0 0 0 0

0 40 184 0

0 186 468 0

0 379 843 0

0 515 1,031 0

9 516 1,024 0

9 623 1,191 0

31 773 1,462 0

37 874 1,582 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

10 10 10 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

104 104 104 72 70 32 25 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 61 61 61 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

46 46 46 36 36 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

57 57 57 50 41 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

105 105 105 100 98 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

181 181 161 147 111 14 14 20 0 0 0 0 0

113 113 113 110 104 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 4

0 48

0 42

0 18

9 26

0 72

22 94

6 74

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

10 10 4 4 4 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 11 9 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 14 9 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 9 7 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

20 20 20 11 8 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

19 19 19 14 10 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 4

0 1

0 1

0 4

0 5

0 2

0 2

0 4

2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 9 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 6 5 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 8 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 9 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 10 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 1

0 3

0 3

1 4

0 3

0 4

1 7

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

100

CHAD (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.1 0.0 29.7

.. 0.0 0.1 0.0 48.5

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.8

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.7

4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.4

4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 60.0

5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.8

5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.2

5 0 3 3 0 2 2 0 14 7 0 0

1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 12 4 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 0

-2 56 -25

187 108 63

267 151 95

111 80 48

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0 8 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 7 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 1 0 6 12 55 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 23 126 75 -13 4 108 64 43 2 8 -34 -43 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS 4.6 15.0 5.2 32.3

1.7 30.3 9.2 66.4

1.0 38.0 8.7 75.2

0.7 40.5 10.1 80.7

2.2 30.1 8.4 61.4

0.6 31.4 8.1 72.4

0.9 38.5 9.6 77.3

1.0 38.8 9.8 77.3

4.6 15.0 5.2 32.3

1.7 30.3 9.2 66.4

1.0 38.0 8.7 75.2

0.7 40.5 10.1 80.7

2.2 30.1 8.4 61.4

0.8 34.8 8.9 75.8

0.9 38.5 9.6 77.3

1.0 38.8 9.8 77.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

44 20

50 20

56 20

56 19

57 19

62 18

64 17

66 16

43 20

48 20

53 20

52 19

53 19

59 18

62 17

64 16

11 6

10 6

10 5

10 5

9 5

9 4

9 4

9 3

32 14

38 15

43 15

43 14

44 14

50 13

53 13

55 12

1 0

2 0

3 0

3 0

3 0

3 0

2 0

2 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

101

CHILE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

20,384 17,628 12,897 4,731 1,088 1,668 0 0 0

19,226 14,687 10,425 4,263 1,156 3,382 0 0 0

22,038 18,607 7,178 11,429 0 3,431 0 0 0

37,289 31,117 5,255 25,861 0 6,172 0 0 0

38,631 33,341 5,581 27,760 0 5,290 0 0 0

41,219 35,396 6,799 28,596 0 5,823 0 0 0

43,308 35,804 8,046 27,758 0 7,504 0 0 0

44,058 36,351 9,426 26,925 0 7,707 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

1,649 1,450 199 330 330 0 1,073 -246 1,942 1,637 64 240 -869 2,271 1,967 64 240

2,253 2,253 0 980 771 208 1,682 409 1,792 1,364 118 310 -110 2,772 2,135 326 310

3,821 3,821 0 3,671 3,369 303 -284 -434 1,293 1,114 13 165 -1,577 4,964 4,483 316 165

4,979 4,979 0 3,941 3,941 0 2,893 1,855 2,236 2,082 0 154 657 6,177 6,023 0 154

6,024 6,024 0 4,684 4,684 0 458 -882 1,964 1,809 0 154 -1,506 6,648 6,494 0 154

7,092 7,092 0 6,011 6,011 0 1,614 533 1,718 1,592 0 126 -104 7,729 7,603 0 126

6,841 6,841 0 6,578 6,578 0 1,944 1,681 1,485 1,286 0 200 458 8,063 7,864 0 200

8,388 8,388 0 8,136 8,136 0 455 203 1,430 1,276 0 154 -975 9,566 9,412 0 154

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

1,296 1,120 144 0 32 31

2,583 1,481 661 367 73 66

3,215 452 2,957 -249 54 97

5,489 1,038 4,860 -427 18 56

5,346 1,340 4,200 -217 23 58

3,333 1,081 2,550 -320 23 49

4,988 263 4,385 318 23 60

7,894 252 7,603 8 31 68

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-500 1,637 159

832 1,364 387

-78 1,114 2,178

868 2,082 2,539

1,287 1,809 2,250

-706 1,592 2,447

-909 1,286 4,611

-1,434 1,276 8,052

65,811 23,868 12 25,395 14,399 -1,100

64,729 23,679 12 24,842 15,344 -580

70,091 27,909 13 29,610 15,843 -1,102

91,809 39,491 13 39,153 15,997 1,390

161.8 58.7 27.9 8.2 3.0 37.3 6.8 13.7 0.9 3.4

174.1 63.7 32.6 7.3 2.7 37.2 7.4 14.1 0.8 2.6

155.2 61.8 28.9 5.3 2.1 36.6 6.4 17.3 0.8 2.4

111.6 48.0 24.2 3.6 1.6 36.3 4.9 17.5 0.7 2.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

14,403 4,697 1 6,257 2,950 -1,413

28,564 10,705 1 11,387 6,784 -485

433.9 141.5 48.4 41.3 13.5 14.5 5.7 8.2 2.4 7.5

179.6 67.3 25.9 16.7 6.3 35.3 7.1 17.6 1.9 21.5

62,504 20,226 0 21,883 14,860 -1,350

72,959 24,891 13 26,346 15,055 -898

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

109.0 35.3 24.5 6.4 2.1 67.4 8.1 15.6 1.5 13.0

102

149.8 51.1 24.8 9.0 3.1 40.4 6.9 16.6 1.0 3.8

CHILE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

17,628 12,897 2,106 1,532 43 574 449 10,791 92 10,012 4,731 0 4,731

14,687 10,425 5,182 4,143 33 1,039 334 5,242 39 4,747 4,263 0 4,263

18,607 7,178 3,582 2,871 23 711 308 3,596 0 3,509 11,429 866 10,563

31,117 5,255 1,915 1,406 13 509 348 3,341 0 3,273 25,861 6,339 19,522

33,341 5,581 1,746 1,317 11 429 318 3,835 650 3,182 27,760 7,173 20,587

35,396 6,799 1,477 1,088 9 389 300 5,322 2,390 2,906 28,596 7,174 21,422

35,804 8,046 1,437 1,049 10 388 319 6,609 4,254 2,329 27,758 4,529 23,229

36,351 9,426 1,335 1,015 7 321 314 8,091 5,362 2,704 26,925 4,951 21,974

487 18 12,841 4,787

1,860 14 10,421 4,267

1,372 11 7,178 11,429

808 7 5,175 25,941

727 7 5,501 27,840

556 6 6,719 28,676

422 5 8,020 27,785

441 4 9,426 26,925

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,450 1,364 501 501 0 1 0 863 0 701 86 0 86

2,253 708 650 583 0 67 0 58 0 37 1,545 0 1,545

3,821 342 194 146 0 48 48 148 0 141 3,479 500 2,979

4,979 382 161 113 0 47 17 221 0 221 4,597 672 3,925

6,024 1,295 122 108 0 14 14 1,174 650 524 4,729 1,281 3,448

7,092 2,404 126 126 0 1 1 2,277 1,708 544 4,688 0 4,688

6,841 2,255 156 141 0 15 8 2,099 1,800 299 4,586 330 4,256

8,388 2,561 378 371 0 7 7 2,184 1,250 934 5,827 1,125 4,702

231 0

251 0

83 0

48 0

39 0

30 0

37 0

259 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

330 233 66 31 2 35 18 168 0 58 96 0 96

771 500 356 263 2 93 32 144 7 32 271 0 271

3,369 2,277 2,003 1,884 2 119 29 273 0 240 1,092 11 1,081

3,941 760 280 177 2 103 34 480 0 479 3,181 0 3,181

4,684 931 242 178 2 64 31 688 0 624 3,754 404 3,350

6,011 1,270 438 376 2 62 30 832 0 831 4,741 94 4,647

6,578 1,129 246 199 3 47 13 883 0 882 5,449 434 5,015

8,136 1,217 485 406 2 79 17 732 171 560 6,919 752 6,167

19 1

119 1

704 1

115 1

119 1

202 1

173 1

240 1

1,637 998 115 98 1 17 10 884 6 821 639 0 639

1,364 1,112 384 313 1 71 9 729 2 688 252 0 252

1,114 653 387 348 0 39 6 266 0 258 461 26 435

2,082 377 139 112 0 27 9 239 0 234 1,704 440 1,265

1,809 299 121 105 0 16 6 178 0 175 1,510 499 1,011

1,592 213 101 88 0 14 6 112 0 112 1,379 552 826

1,286 364 76 65 0 12 6 287 192 95 922 351 571

1,276 400 52 44 0 7 5 349 265 84 875 349 526

18 0

130 0

137 0

70 0

63 0

50 0

35 0

18 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

103

CHILE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.0 0.8 1.4 78.0

.. 8.2 3.4 0.6 40.2

.. 9.5 2.9 0.9 42.3

.. 5.5 0.2 0.1 85.5

1.5 3.9 0.2 0.0 89.1

6.0 2.8 0.1 0.0 89.0

6.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 90.2

5.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 93.6

1,351 4,172 0 0 0 873 4,168 0 0 0 479 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 466 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 332 1,100 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 647 1,193 -117 2,474 1,342 1,073 1,682 -284 2,893 458 323 508 14 -61 -82 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,588 1,614 25

2,090 1,944 289

750 455 8

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.5 13.1 5.2 1.1

7.8 17.9 4.2 12.2

6.2 18.0 5.4 24.2

7.0 6.3 3.0 9.8

5.9 12.8 7.0 20.6

4.3 6.5 5.6 21.7

4.3 9.3 8.0 29.2

2.8 6.4 5.4 27.8

8.9 16.9 4.0 4.9

7.7 18.8 4.3 13.1

6.1 19.5 5.8 26.2

1.0 17.0 1.5 49.1

6.8 24.6 5.6 22.4

3.6 10.9 3.1 26.3

1.6 19.4 5.2 47.7

1.8 8.3 4.5 35.2

10.0 9.3 6.8 7.0 5.6 4.4 10.4 7.6 9.6 6.3 7.9 6.0 6.1 2.3 3.0 3.0 7.6 5.8 -1.5 1.7 13.6 9.7 19.8 21.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

4.4 9.1 8.0 28.7

2.9 6.2 5.6 26.7

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

6,193 1,385

4,191 1,310

4,474 1,198

3,961 941

3,554 785

1,926 672

2,161 569

2,485 440

183 53

91 53

105 52

308 46

112 40

149 36

128 31

82 28

55 7

33 6

30 6

30 5

32 5

32 4

17 4

17 3

128 46

58 47

75 46

278 41

80 35

117 32

111 28

66 24

6,010 1,332

4,100 1,257

4,369 1,147

3,654 895

3,442 745

1,777 636

2,033 537

2,403 413

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country.

104

CHINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

16,696 9,937 9,937 0 340 6,419 0 0 0

55,301 45,515 45,515 0 469 9,317 0 0 0

118,090 95,764 94,674 1,090 0 22,325 0 0 0

145,729 132,649 94,860 37,789 0 13,080 0 0 0

184,830 128,520 91,776 36,744 0 56,310 0 0 0

186,372 120,452 88,613 31,839 0 65,920 0 0 0

208,666 120,359 85,329 35,030 0 88,307 0 0 0

248,934 131,342 90,815 40,527 0 117,592 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

5,280 5,280 0 1,297 1,297 0 4,802 819 1,181 586 2 594 3,621 2,478 1,883 2 594

9,665 9,665 0 3,809 3,319 490 8,267 2,410 3,248 2,534 65 649 5,018 7,057 5,853 555 649

21,985 21,985 0 9,070 9,070 0 17,758 4,842 5,996 4,657 0 1,340 11,761 15,066 13,726 0 1,340

16,777 16,777 0 19,925 19,925 0 -5,248 -2,100 7,167 5,999 0 1,168 -12,415 27,092 25,924 0 1,168

14,781 14,781 0 16,643 16,643 0 -33 1,828 7,895 6,160 0 1,735 -7,928 24,538 22,803 0 1,735

19,058 19,058 0 24,715 24,715 0 3,953 9,610 6,371 4,232 0 2,139 -2,418 31,085 28,946 0 2,139

25,421 25,421 0 30,058 30,058 0 13,772 18,409 7,121 4,499 0 2,622 6,650 37,179 34,558 0 2,622

24,476 24,476 0 16,490 16,490 0 37,270 29,285 7,166 4,204 0 2,963 30,104 23,656 20,694 0 2,963

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

5,760 3,983 1,659 0 117 127

10,082 6,346 3,487 0 249 384

49,095 12,915 35,849 0 330 563

42,468 -3,148 38,399 6,912 305 541

43,485 -1,861 44,241 849 256 516

46,214 -5,657 49,308 2,249 314 568

56,929 -4,637 53,505 7,729 332 791

74,226 7,985 54,936 10,923 381 884

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

5,160 586 14

7,502 2,534 46

34,485 4,657 9,953

16,270 5,999 20,198

15,836 6,160 21,489

24,159 4,232 17,823

35,077 4,499 17,353

52,607 4,204 17,415

1,305,630 309,709 8,385 299,888 220,057 17,401

1,438,886 375,419 13,012 351,302 297,739 35,422

1,633,123 504,441 17,815 472,857 416,199 45,875

1,928,188 680,998 21,283 630,610 622,949 68,659

EDT / XGS (%) 56.0 91.4 77.3 49.8 59.7 49.6 41.4 EDT / GNI (%) 5.5 15.5 16.5 12.3 14.2 13.0 12.8 TDS / XGS (%) 8.3 11.7 9.9 9.3 7.9 8.3 7.4 INT / XGS (%) 4.0 5.4 3.9 2.4 2.5 1.7 1.4 INT / GNI (%) 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 RES / EDT (%) 101.1 62.3 68.0 117.9 119.1 159.8 199.5 RES / MGS (months) 4.9 8.5 6.3 7.4 8.8 10.2 10.6 Short-term / EDT (%) 38.4 16.8 18.9 9.0 30.5 35.4 42.3 Concessional / EDT (%) 14.7 17.6 15.2 20.7 16.0 16.1 15.6 Multilateral / EDT (%) 5.9 11.1 13.8 17.7 14.5 14.7 12.6 *Includes central government debt, other public sector which is not guaranteed, and private sector debt which is guaranteed by a public entity.

36.6 12.9 3.5 1.1 0.4 250.2 11.9 47.2 15.5 10.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

305,753 29,821 253 41,301 16,881 -11,417

355,699 60,515 210 48,668 34,476 11,997

716,237 152,781 1,053 152,248 80,288 1,618

1,183,815 292,668 6,244 277,904 171,763 20,518

4. DEBT INDICATORS

105

CHINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

9,937 9,937 4,724 983 468 3,741 1,989 5,213 1,234 776 0 0 0

45,515 45,515 14,514 6,111 3,119 8,403 6,599 31,001 5,425 14,520 0 0 0

95,764 94,674 36,982 16,302 7,180 20,680 10,792 57,693 10,684 23,869 1,090 1,090 0

132,649 94,860 50,393 25,811 8,821 24,582 21,397 44,467 11,371 10,619 37,789 1,068 36,721

128,520 91,776 50,566 26,861 8,693 23,705 20,796 41,210 11,852 6,760 36,744 1,536 35,208

120,452 88,613 50,822 27,421 9,457 23,401 20,466 37,791 10,568 6,062 31,839 1,540 30,299

120,359 85,329 51,385 26,236 10,350 25,149 22,220 33,944 11,167 5,119 35,030 1,620 33,410

131,342 90,815 57,232 26,488 10,670 30,745 27,876 33,582 13,769 3,433 40,527 2,326 38,201

498 431 9,937 0

2,865 3,016 45,449 66

7,209 7,038 93,573 2,192

11,118 8,771 94,860 37,789

11,550 8,654 91,776 36,744

11,254 9,423 88,613 31,839

10,657 10,314 85,329 35,030

11,035 10,670 90,815 40,527

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5,280 5,280 1,166 599 229 567 425 4,114 971 700 0 0 0

9,665 9,665 2,578 1,158 511 1,420 1,022 7,087 277 3,247 0 0 0

21,985 21,441 9,073 2,838 822 6,235 1,533 12,368 1,224 4,977 544 544 0

16,777 9,695 5,791 3,303 424 2,487 1,874 3,904 848 131 7,082 390 6,692

14,781 8,611 4,741 2,575 319 2,167 1,779 3,870 1,486 348 6,170 476 5,694

19,058 4,671 3,269 2,628 212 641 463 1,402 100 115 14,387 90 14,297

25,421 4,805 2,582 2,308 143 273 255 2,223 1,606 65 20,616 175 20,441

24,476 6,600 2,475 1,719 69 756 752 4,125 3,747 75 17,876 737 17,139

354 212

591 507

1,457 812

1,528 379

1,480 311

1,812 208

1,475 141

1,119 69

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,297 1,297 49 0 0 49 0 1,248 0 77 0 0 0

3,319 3,319 851 220 0 631 145 2,468 325 808 0 0 0

9,070 9,070 1,171 420 19 751 315 7,899 1,451 2,645 0 0 0

19,925 10,798 4,271 1,400 317 2,871 2,346 6,527 443 2,016 9,127 534 8,593

16,643 8,579 2,586 1,182 131 1,404 1,143 5,993 926 1,556 8,064 0 8,064

24,715 9,940 4,476 3,123 123 1,353 1,104 5,464 1,165 740 14,775 80 14,695

30,058 10,468 5,739 4,514 150 1,225 1,067 4,729 696 962 19,590 110 19,480

16,490 5,106 2,459 1,531 222 928 819 2,647 769 622 11,384 26 11,358

0 0

216 0

350 14

578 66

817 87

2,389 113

2,312 147

813 186

586 586 172 30 4 142 43 414 20 50 0 0 0

2,534 2,534 531 226 20 305 193 2,003 367 959 0 0 0

4,657 4,623 1,288 619 53 669 324 3,335 594 1,333 33 33 0

5,999 4,075 2,387 1,518 69 869 633 1,688 521 222 1,924 93 1,831

6,160 4,244 2,575 1,808 66 767 544 1,669 690 202 1,916 111 1,805

4,232 3,077 1,669 1,149 68 520 417 1,408 413 220 1,155 119 1,036

4,499 3,178 1,600 805 73 795 615 1,578 470 118 1,321 123 1,198

4,204 3,249 1,859 865 78 994 789 1,390 328 294 954 122 832

26 4

200 19

460 49

713 65

733 64

593 67

378 72

242 78

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

106

CHINA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 49.7 0.8 0.1 23.8

.. 30.4 0.7 0.2 29.1

.. 20.7 0.2 0.0 58.1

.. 16.9 0.1 0.1 71.4

4.8 14.5 0.1 0.1 74.1

5.7 15.4 0.1 0.1 72.4

7.2 16.7 0.1 0.1 71.2

8.9 15.7 0.1 0.1 71.1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 4,614 10,369 17,633 -6,356 39,101 4,802 8,267 17,758 -5,248 -33 1,025 1,415 -375 -3,118 -2,923 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,542 3,953 3,370

22,294 13,772 3,910

40,268 37,270 1,431

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.4 11.8 4.1 13.5

7.5 16.6 3.9 15.6

6.5 11.8 2.9 15.4

6.6 12.9 2.5 15.5

5.9 12.9 3.8 20.7

5.7 14.1 3.0 23.2

3.7 14.5 5.9 38.2

3.8 14.2 6.9 37.9

5.8 26.6 6.8 32.3

3.7 27.9 7.9 49.2

6.8 18.3 3.7 19.0

7.2 21.1 4.9 17.5

5.8 21.4 4.7 26.9

4.2 20.7 5.0 38.1

2.2 21.6 5.4 53.8

2.4 22.3 5.2 52.6

8.0 8.6 6.3 6.4 5.9 6.5 7.0 13.3 7.3 10.5 10.2 10.1 3.3 2.7 2.4 1.8 3.5 1.8 7.5 5.7 12.9 14.9 18.7 14.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

4.9 8.7 6.4 25.2

4.7 9.0 8.0 28.6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

19,970 5,236

19,250 4,271

17,284 3,528

14,595 2,756

12,077 2,244

9,611 1,830

8,410 1,493

4,782 1,254

5,413 2,033

5,316 1,914

5,019 1,770

4,359 1,616

4,229 1,469

4,180 1,315

3,983 1,164

3,922 1,015

3,896 1,223

3,670 1,071

3,323 924

2,553 794

2,380 685

2,211 578

1,956 486

1,880 402

1,518 809

1,646 843

1,697 845

1,806 822

1,850 785

1,968 736

2,027 679

2,041 613

14,557 3,204

13,934 2,357

12,265 1,759

10,236 1,140

7,848 775

5,431 515

4,427 329

860 239

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on aggregate information provided by the authorities and World Bank staff estimates. Short-term and private nonguaranteed debt data for 1999–2004 are reported by the country. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

107

COLOMBIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

14,248 11,144 9,576 1,568 0 3,104 5 0 5

17,222 15,784 14,671 1,113 0 1,438 28 17 11

25,048 19,503 13,950 5,553 0 5,545 2 0 2

33,933 31,062 20,803 10,259 0 2,871 0 0 0

36,248 32,961 21,777 11,184 0 3,287 0 0 0

33,204 29,545 20,669 8,876 0 3,659 0 0 0

36,997 33,441 22,783 10,657 0 3,556 0 0 0

37,732 32,391 23,372 9,019 0 5,341 0 0 0

11 0 11

409 42 367

177 85 92

8 0 8

7 0 7

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

2,050 2,050 0 749 749 0 1,531 231 1,222 863 0 359 309 1,972 1,613 0 359

1,994 1,994 0 2,189 2,189 0 -399 -204 1,701 1,558 0 143 -2,100 3,889 3,746 0 143

4,181 4,181 0 2,347 2,347 0 2,897 1,062 1,998 1,687 0 311 899 4,345 4,034 0 311

3,804 3,804 0 2,902 2,902 0 -192 -1,094 2,204 2,032 0 172 -2,396 5,106 4,934 0 172

6,016 6,016 0 3,622 3,622 0 2,810 416 2,690 2,528 0 162 121 6,311 6,150 0 162

3,319 3,319 0 4,621 4,621 0 -929 372 2,224 2,064 0 160 -3,153 6,845 6,685 0 160

6,935 6,935 0 6,198 6,198 0 634 -103 2,447 2,295 0 152 -1,813 8,645 8,493 0 152

4,041 4,041 0 5,248 5,248 0 578 1,785 2,440 2,262 0 178 -1,862 7,688 7,510 0 178

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

2,343 1,300 1,023 0 20 41

340 -195 500 0 35 79

3,041 1,834 968 165 74 98

3,394 903 2,395 17 79 183

4,966 2,394 2,525 -42 89 360

928 -1,301 2,115 17 98 414

2,591 737 1,801 -52 104 769

2,116 -1,207 3,052 130 141 479

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,085 863 395

-2,182 1,558 964

995 1,687 359

707 2,032 655

1,514 2,528 924

-2,168 2,064 1,033

-1,263 2,295 1,559

-2,458 2,262 2,312

79,397 17,973 2,056 19,400 10,244 -1,094

78,858 17,348 2,480 18,939 10,844 -1,340

76,642 19,333 3,076 20,593 10,920 -987

93,525 23,329 3,190 24,776 13,537 -967

201.7 45.7 35.1 15.0 3.4 28.3 6.3 9.1 2.5 20.0

191.4 42.1 39.5 12.8 2.8 32.7 6.9 11.0 2.8 22.9

191.4 48.3 44.7 12.7 3.2 29.5 6.4 9.6 3.0 27.3

161.7 40.3 33.0 10.5 2.6 35.9 6.6 14.2 2.8 27.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

33,181 4,721 110 6,886 2,197 -1,809

38,193 9,514 495 9,510 4,869 542

301.8 42.9 41.8 25.9 3.7 15.4 3.8 21.8 7.1 23.9

181.0 45.1 40.9 17.9 4.5 28.3 6.1 8.4 5.7 35.4

90,924 13,781 815 18,286 8,452 -4,516

81,463 18,400 1,610 17,734 9,006 761

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

181.8 27.5 31.5 14.5 2.2 33.7 5.5 22.1 3.9 21.2

108

184.4 41.7 27.8 12.0 2.7 26.5 6.1 8.5 2.8 18.5

COLOMBIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

11,144 9,576 5,302 3,411 213 1,891 793 4,274 16 3,406 1,568 0 1,568

15,784 14,671 8,540 6,103 219 2,437 769 6,131 275 4,208 1,113 0 1,113

19,503 13,950 7,066 5,320 164 1,747 814 6,883 1,733 4,163 5,553 717 4,836

31,062 20,803 7,726 6,278 104 1,448 860 13,077 8,201 4,245 10,259 762 9,497

32,961 21,777 8,591 7,255 90 1,336 798 13,185 10,226 2,270 11,184 658 10,526

29,545 20,669 8,941 7,607 75 1,334 853 11,728 9,623 1,516 8,876 658 8,218

33,441 22,783 11,332 10,085 273 1,247 838 11,452 9,664 1,292 10,657 376 10,282

32,391 23,372 11,462 10,410 373 1,052 701 11,910 10,342 1,143 9,019 370 8,649

2,401 18 9,510 1,635

3,859 14 14,630 1,154

2,548 11 13,945 5,558

1,920 7 20,798 10,264

2,006 7 21,772 11,188

2,348 6 20,668 8,877

3,241 5 22,782 10,658

3,490 5 23,371 9,020

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,050 1,814 1,215 829 20 386 30 599 0 374 235 0 235

1,994 1,847 697 559 3 139 26 1,150 0 874 147 0 147

4,181 1,571 687 397 2 290 70 885 535 257 2,610 592 2,018

3,804 2,940 661 509 0 152 97 2,279 1,804 469 865 0 865

6,016 5,255 1,602 1,520 0 82 54 3,653 3,045 379 761 0 761

3,319 2,025 980 912 0 68 56 1,045 500 465 1,294 0 1,294

6,935 5,654 3,312 3,288 180 24 15 2,342 2,047 268 1,281 0 1,281

4,041 2,509 1,173 1,169 118 4 4 1,336 1,000 292 1,533 170 1,363

589 0

213 0

238 0

266 0

368 0

480 0

987 0

455 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

749 645 291 210 5 81 30 354 1 258 104 0 104

2,189 1,875 737 527 12 210 36 1,138 4 849 314 0 314

2,347 2,200 1,110 647 13 463 39 1,090 119 723 147 0 147

2,902 2,069 558 441 14 116 44 1,512 469 839 832 110 722

3,622 2,721 519 402 14 117 47 2,202 985 1,031 900 98 802

4,621 3,327 960 853 15 108 43 2,366 1,190 990 1,294 0 1,294

6,198 3,944 1,260 1,118 15 142 84 2,683 2,070 491 2,254 282 1,972

5,248 2,083 1,089 943 19 146 87 994 441 437 3,165 176 2,990

165 0

434 1

414 1

242 1

232 1

231 1

211 1

255 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

863 762 346 215 4 131 19 416 0 358 102 0 102

1,558 1,240 627 476 6 150 19 613 27 461 318 0 318

1,687 962 506 388 4 118 25 457 58 310 725 15 710

2,032 1,414 541 470 3 71 26 873 515 298 618 84 534

2,528 1,690 561 493 2 68 26 1,128 867 199 838 79 759

2,064 1,569 503 449 2 55 24 1,065 932 92 495 75 420

2,295 1,630 537 489 2 49 22 1,093 998 61 665 75 590

2,262 1,636 540 497 10 43 19 1,096 1,009 58 625 38 587

153 0

318 0

190 0

126 0

133 0

115 0

146 0

152 0

109

COLOMBIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.9 0.1 0.2 53.4

.. 4.9 0.3 0.3 44.0

.. 5.6 0.1 0.2 53.3

.. 3.6 0.8 0.0 80.3

9.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 78.5

9.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 78.8

6.2 2.3 0.8 0.1 84.7

6.4 1.7 0.9 0.0 86.1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,210 336 3,108 -491 2,314 1,531 -399 2,897 -192 2,810 637 494 315 -364 -370 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-3,044 -929 643

3,793 634 704

736 578 428

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.6 12.0 3.5 0.9

8.0 16.5 4.6 12.2

4.8 11.7 4.3 23.6

7.9 10.7 6.2 4.7

8.7 12.5 8.0 8.1

7.7 9.2 6.0 9.2

5.4 12.4 8.4 23.0

5.8 16.2 9.8 26.9

9.4 17.9 4.8 2.5

7.5 18.7 5.4 15.5

6.4 20.4 4.8 23.3

8.6 12.6 3.7 7.4

5.5 18.7 6.0 28.8

4.1 13.6 3.9 30.9

3.7 10.7 4.8 32.1

4.3 17.2 6.5 36.1

8.9 7.7 6.6 1.9

8.8 16.0 15.8 4.1

8.0 14.8 14.6 13.6

9.7 9.3 3.8 7.7 10.4 8.8 10.2 6.0 10.1 9.2 2.8 2.2 4.0 7.0 9.1 0.1 2.3 23.8 3.9 -3.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,825 2,214

4,139 2,011

3,924 1,754

4,086 1,400

3,190 1,193

2,411 1,001

2,449 792

1,714 660

1,025 573

1,276 533

1,600 464

1,257 382

887 329

980 287

979 242

802 200

124 43

114 37

113 31

112 26

114 21

88 16

71 11

27 8

901 530

1,162 497

1,487 432

1,145 356

773 308

892 272

908 230

774 192

2,800 1,641

2,863 1,477

2,324 1,290

2,829 1,019

2,303 864

1,431 713

1,470 551

912 460

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

110

COMOROS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

134.2 129.6 129.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.6 0.5 0.1

188.5 176.1 176.1 0.0 0.0 12.4 12.2 12.2 0.0

215.5 202.1 202.1 0.0 3.3 10.1 8.1 8.1 0.0

237.6 207.9 207.9 0.0 1.5 28.3 19.3 19.3 0.0

248.1 223.1 223.1 0.0 0.8 24.1 21.1 21.1 0.0

275.6 245.4 245.4 0.0 0.6 29.6 23.6 23.6 0.0

293.1 265.3 265.3 0.0 0.2 27.7 26.6 26.6 0.0

305.8 275.2 275.2 0.0 0.0 30.6 30.6 30.6 0.0

1.7 1.6 0.2

25.5 25.5 0.0

26.9 26.9 0.0

60.8 60.8 0.0

64.1 64.1 0.0

67.6 67.6 0.0

68.3 68.3 0.0

80.2 80.2 0.0

22.2 22.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 22.9 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.3 21.0 2.2 1.9 0.0 0.3

5.4 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.2 -3.0 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.2

9.6 9.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 11.2 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.1 10.6 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.1

2.1 2.1 0.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 2.3 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.9 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.6

11.6 11.6 0.0 1.9 1.3 0.6 3.7 -6.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.3

12.2 12.2 0.0 4.2 3.8 0.4 11.0 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.1 10.1 5.1 4.6 0.4 0.1

8.6 8.6 0.0 2.1 1.8 0.4 1.6 -4.9 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 2.6 0.4 0.1

3.2 3.2 0.0 2.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 -1.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 3.2 3.0 0.2 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

36.2 21.9 0.0 0.0 14.3 11.1

32.9 5.2 0.0 0.0 27.7 15.8

27.9 9.2 1.0 0.0 17.8 14.6

11.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.7 8.4

22.4 10.2 1.1 0.0 11.0 8.4

21.8 8.4 0.4 0.0 13.0 10.4

15.2 6.9 1.0 0.0 7.3 12.0

15.6 1.3 2.0 0.0 12.4 13.2

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

34.6 1.5 0.0

31.5 0.7 0.6

27.3 0.5 0.2

11.0 0.8 0.0

21.8 0.6 0.0

21.0 0.8 0.0

14.3 0.8 0.0

14.6 1.0 0.0

204.2 .. 12.0 .. 43.4 ..

220.8 .. 12.0 .. 62.5 ..

246.0 .. 12.0 .. 80.1 ..

317.6 .. 12.0 .. 94.5 ..

364.4 .. 12.0 .. 104.0 ..

.. 116.4 .. .. 0.7 18.3 .. 11.9 83.9 70.2

.. 112.3 .. .. 0.4 25.2 .. 9.7 86.8 69.6

.. 112.0 .. .. 0.4 29.1 .. 10.7 85.9 70.6

.. 92.3 .. .. 0.3 32.3 .. 9.4 87.3 72.8

.. 83.9 .. .. 0.3 34.0 .. 10.0 86.8 73.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

113.3 24.7 4.0 66.1 11.9 -14.3

261.8 48.1 10.0 93.4 29.9 -10.5

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

543.2 118.4 8.8 7.4 1.6 8.9 2.2 3.4 90.7 51.5

392.0 72.0 2.3 1.8 0.3 15.9 3.8 6.6 86.1 61.2

232.9 61.4 12.0 105.7 44.9 -19.0

4. DEBT INDICATORS 350.8 92.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 20.8 5.1 4.7 90.2 73.0

111

COMOROS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

129.6 129.6 129.4 69.1 62.5 60.2 59.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

176.1 176.1 176.1 115.3 101.6 60.8 60.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

202.1 202.1 202.1 157.4 149.7 44.7 44.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

207.9 207.9 207.9 166.8 158.2 41.1 41.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

223.1 223.1 223.1 172.6 164.8 50.5 50.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

245.4 245.4 245.4 194.6 185.9 50.9 50.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

265.3 265.3 265.3 213.4 203.9 51.8 51.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

275.2 275.2 275.2 223.4 213.5 51.8 51.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 19.5 129.6 0.0

0.0 37.5 176.1 0.0

0.0 64.1 202.1 0.0

0.0 70.8 207.9 0.0

0.0 79.0 223.1 0.0

0.0 96.1 245.4 0.0

0.0 112.4 265.3 0.0

0.0 118.7 275.2 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

22.2 22.2 22.2 14.1 12.5 8.1 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.4 5.4 5.4 1.3 1.3 4.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 5.5

0.0 0.7

0.0 9.6

0.0 2.1

0.0 11.6

0.0 12.2

0.0 8.6

0.0 3.2

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.8 3.8 3.8 3.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.8

0.0 0.8

0.0 1.1

0.0 1.3

0.0 1.8

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.8

0.0 0.6

0.0 0.6

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.9

112

COMOROS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.1

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.2

14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.2

13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.6

13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.3

13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 29.4 11.1 11.9 0.6 10.5 22.9 2.2 11.2 2.3 3.7 3.1 2.5 -3.4 -9.5 -3.3 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.5 11.0 9.7

17.6 1.6 13.6

12.7 0.0 6.6

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.2 19.0 8.2 41.0

2.0 29.8 10.3 65.9

0.9 38.9 12.0 79.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

4.2 19.0 8.2 41.0

2.0 29.8 10.3 65.9

0.9 38.9 12.0 79.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

17.6 2.1

7.8 1.6

5.8 1.5

6.3 1.5

6.4 1.5

6.2 1.5

6.5 1.4

6.9 1.4

17.6 2.1

7.8 1.6

5.8 1.5

6.3 1.5

6.4 1.5

6.2 1.5

6.5 1.4

6.9 1.4

1.3 0.2

1.3 0.2

1.2 0.2

1.2 0.1

1.2 0.1

1.0 0.1

1.0 0.1

1.0 0.1

16.3 2.0

6.5 1.4

4.6 1.4

5.1 1.4

5.2 1.4

5.2 1.3

5.6 1.3

5.9 1.3

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

113

CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

6,183 4,963 4,963 0 807 413 104 25 79

10,259 8,994 8,994 0 521 744 265 166 99

13,239 9,636 9,636 0 485 3,118 2,937 2,611 326

11,692 7,880 7,880 0 391 3,421 3,042 2,863 179

11,519 7,587 7,587 0 377 3,555 3,174 2,997 177

10,060 8,845 8,845 0 571 643 340 287 53

11,254 10,161 10,161 0 703 390 363 300 63

11,841 10,532 10,532 0 818 491 372 308 64

254 88 166

1,050 376 674

4,569 3,752 817

4,949 4,461 488

5,279 4,798 482

721 578 143

907 768 139

938 797 140

313 141 172 229 105 124 149 65 269 195 50 23 -120 498 300 175 23

315 315 0 201 49 152 88 -27 147 88 38 21 -60 348 137 190 21

0 0 0 1 0 1 61 63 24 0 16 8 38 25 0 17 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 25 0 0 25 -4 25 0 0 25

0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 18 0 0 17 -16 18 0 0 17

959 415 544 637 248 388 244 -78 290 164 113 14 -46 927 412 501 14

265 190 75 56 56 0 -67 -276 91 85 1 5 -158 146 141 1 5

291 211 79 58 58 0 324 92 63 59 2 2 261 121 117 2 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

197 36 69 0 91 111

626 266 -14 0 374 146

139 0 -22 0 161 55

160 0 23 0 137 54

279 0 82 0 197 72

776 167 117 0 492 92

5,136 134 158 0 4,843 131

1,597 153 0 0 1,444 144

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-33 195 34

537 88 0

139 0 0

160 0 0

279 0 0

612 164 0

5,051 85 0

1,538 59 0

3,916 .. 0 .. .. ..

4,468 .. 0 .. .. ..

5,249 .. 0 .. .. ..

5,502 .. 0 .. .. ..

6,354 .. 0 .. .. ..

.. 298.6 .. .. 0.6 .. .. 29.3 26.8 18.5

.. 257.8 .. .. 0.4 .. .. 30.9 26.2 17.9

.. 191.6 .. .. 5.5 .. .. 6.4 61.5 24.3

.. 204.6 .. .. 1.6 .. .. 3.5 63.5 24.8

.. 186.4 .. .. 1.0 .. .. 4.1 62.1 26.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

6,626 .. 0 .. 335 ..

8,581 .. 0 .. 261 ..

4,878 .. 0 .. 157 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. 93.3 .. .. 4.1 5.4 .. 6.7 22.7 9.8

.. 119.6 .. .. 1.7 2.5 .. 7.2 31.0 18.6

.. 271.4 .. .. 0.5 1.2 .. 23.6 26.9 18.0

114

CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

4,963 4,963 4,071 603 490 3,467 913 892 4 147 0 0 0

8,994 8,994 8,105 1,912 1,439 6,193 1,737 889 5 118 0 0 0

9,636 9,636 8,758 2,382 1,704 6,376 1,859 878 5 117 0 0 0

7,880 7,880 7,384 2,164 1,541 5,220 1,598 496 3 81 0 0 0

7,587 7,587 7,098 2,065 1,489 5,033 1,525 488 3 80 0 0 0

8,845 8,845 8,504 2,446 1,892 6,058 4,299 341 2 0 0 0 0

10,161 10,161 9,789 2,796 2,180 6,993 4,965 372 2 1 0 0 0

10,532 10,532 10,156 3,098 2,457 7,058 4,898 376 1 1 0 0 0

46 372 4,963 0

49 1,112 8,994 0

92 1,321 9,621 15

81 1,188 7,867 13

81 1,151 7,587 0

0 1,504 8,845 0

0 1,771 10,161 0

0 1,993 10,532 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

141 141 141 98 75 43 36 0 0 0 0 0 0

315 315 312 222 125 90 88 3 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

415 415 415 410 410 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

190 190 161 160 160 1 1 29 0 1 0 0 0

211 211 211 211 211 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 58

21 89

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 410

0 160

0 167

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

105 105 69 17 5 52 3 36 0 22 0 0 0

49 49 34 28 4 6 4 15 0 5 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

248 248 248 248 167 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

56 56 55 17 17 38 4 1 0 0 0 0 0

58 58 54 11 9 43 18 4 0 0 0 0 0

8 1

5 2

0 0

0 0

0 0

82 135

0 12

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

195 195 132 13 5 119 2 63 0 4 0 0 0

88 88 76 40 9 36 8 12 0 2 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

164 164 164 164 102 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

85 85 85 77 10 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

59 59 58 48 13 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 3

1 7

0 0

0 0

0 0

51 86

0 9

0 11

115

CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.8 2.0 0.3 47.8

.. 3.0 1.2 0.2 41.5

.. 3.7 0.9 0.3 40.8

.. 4.8 1.1 0.2 44.6

33.1 4.3 1.1 0.2 45.8

34.7 7.6 1.2 0.4 43.2

36.9 7.5 1.2 0.4 41.7

35.7 7.6 1.2 0.3 41.5

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

364 446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 219 259 0 0 0 168 252 0 0 0 51 7 0 0 0 94 131 0 0 0 80 129 0 0 0 15 2 0 0 0 4 9 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 894 1,007 918 -356 -173 149 88 61 20 2 462 400 95 -373 -294 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

4,810 0 2,220 2,072 149 1,298 1,247 51 2,086 1,467 0 0

79 0 61 61 1 18 17 0 76 27 0 0

71 0 49 48 1 17 17 0 97 33 0 0

-1,460 244 643

1,195 -67 910

587 324 426

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.0 35.3 7.8 52.4

5.9 23.8 6.4 30.6

2.5 19.9 4.4 48.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.5 29.4 7.5 43.7

0.9 40.3 9.6 77.3

0.8 41.3 10.0 80.8

3.7 36.8 8.0 54.9

5.9 23.8 6.4 30.6

2.5 19.9 4.4 48.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.5 29.4 7.5 43.7

0.8 43.5 10.3 81.6

0.8 41.3 10.0 80.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 11.1 2.9 37.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

894 205

408 227

397 216

388 205

367 195

302 186

364 175

368 163

849 198

368 222

360 212

350 202

329 193

298 185

360 174

364 162

797 159

316 183

303 173

292 163

270 154

238 146

300 135

295 124

52 39

52 39

57 39

58 39

59 39

60 39

60 39

69 38

45 7

40 6

38 4

38 3

38 2

4 1

4 1

4 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004. Grants in 2003 include the debt forgiveness under the Paris Club reschedule agreement signed in 2002.

116

CONGO, REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,051 2,361 2,361 0 10 679 19 8 11

4,947 4,200 4,200 0 11 736 181 77 104

6,004 4,955 4,955 0 19 1,030 441 332 109

4,887 3,758 3,758 0 41 1,088 667 496 171

4,491 3,631 3,631 0 39 821 724 553 171

5,152 3,974 3,974 0 33 1,145 874 693 181

5,527 4,426 4,426 0 28 1,073 1,042 849 193

5,829 5,051 5,051 0 29 750 443 244 199

151 59 92

571 127 443

1,028 595 433

1,806 1,093 714

1,971 1,218 753

2,278 1,489 788

2,649 1,814 835

1,778 922 856

461 461 0 255 253 2 689 483 168 133 0 35 521 423 385 2 35

318 312 5 362 355 7 93 138 169 120 1 48 -75 531 475 8 48

15 15 0 84 82 2 166 236 97 61 1 35 69 181 142 3 35

14 0 14 5 5 0 -52 -61 37 7 1 30 -90 43 12 1 30

38 38 0 56 54 1 -341 -324 36 26 1 9 -378 92 80 2 9

2 2 0 18 10 8 158 174 7 3 1 3 151 25 13 9 3

24 24 0 31 24 8 -247 -240 30 28 0 2 -277 61 51 8 2

39 27 12 233 221 12 82 276 118 115 0 2 -35 350 336 12 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

245 208 13 0 24 31

7 -43 0 0 50 51

144 -67 125 0 86 41

193 -5 166 0 32 19

96 -17 77 0 35 20

384 -8 331 0 61 25

234 0 201 0 33 33

-115 -193 0 0 78 32

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

65 133 47

-113 120 0

-243 61 326

-280 7 466

-299 26 369

-191 3 572

-171 28 378

-514 115 0

2,275 2,644 10 2,013 225 648

1,954 2,217 1 2,228 72 -28

2,198 2,461 1 2,484 35 -34

2,681 1,550 1 1,545 39 -3

3,281 .. 1 .. 124 ..

184.9 214.8 1.6 1.4 1.6 4.6 1.3 22.3 33.7 11.7

202.6 229.9 4.1 1.6 1.9 1.6 0.4 18.3 36.2 11.9

209.4 234.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 22.2 34.9 11.0

356.6 206.2 4.0 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 19.4 37.0 11.3

.. 177.7 .. .. 3.6 2.1 .. 12.9 31.1 10.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,024 1,229 0 1,393 8 -161

2,324 1,503 0 1,757 10 -251

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

248.3 150.7 34.4 13.7 8.3 0.2 0.1 22.3 20.9 10.9

329.2 212.9 35.3 11.2 7.3 0.2 0.1 14.9 35.1 11.5

1,228 1,384 4 2,050 64 -625

4. DEBT INDICATORS 433.8 488.8 13.1 7.0 7.9 1.1 0.4 17.2 33.0 11.7

117

CONGO, REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,361 2,361 959 332 117 626 520 1,403 0 680 0 0 0

4,200 4,200 3,055 568 151 2,487 1,588 1,145 0 724 0 0 0

4,955 4,955 4,043 703 261 3,340 1,722 913 0 784 0 0 0

3,758 3,758 2,993 570 223 2,424 1,424 764 0 691 0 0 0

3,631 3,631 2,878 535 250 2,343 1,378 753 0 683 0 0 0

3,974 3,974 3,185 569 266 2,617 1,534 789 0 708 0 0 0

4,426 4,426 3,591 626 312 2,965 1,735 835 0 739 0 0 0

5,051 5,051 4,194 605 347 3,589 1,467 856 0 753 0 0 0

58 67 2,361 0

164 75 4,200 0

105 174 4,955 0

65 159 3,758 0

16 187 3,631 0

10 198 3,974 0

3 235 4,426 0

0 269 5,051 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

461 461 141 41 21 100 63 320 0 140 0 0 0

312 312 127 11 1 116 113 185 0 174 0 0 0

15 15 15 1 0 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

38 38 38 38 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 24 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 27 27 27 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 4

2 0

1 0

0 0

0 38

0 2

0 24

0 27

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

253 253 30 8 2 22 10 222 0 113 0 0 0

355 355 70 30 2 40 1 285 0 257 0 0 0

82 82 32 19 1 13 5 50 0 46 0 0 0

5 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

54 54 54 54 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 24 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

221 221 221 84 6 136 75 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0

6 0

18 1

2 1

48 5

6 2

6 2

3 4

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

133 133 26 13 1 14 10 107 0 59 0 0 0

120 120 68 30 1 38 28 52 0 44 0 0 0

61 61 20 11 1 9 8 40 0 39 0 0 0

7 7 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 26 26 26 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 28 23 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

115 115 115 75 3 40 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 1

12 1

10 1

1 1

22 4

1 2

1 2

0 2

118

CONGO, REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.2 6.4 0.4 23.7

.. 0.2 5.7 0.4 16.6

.. 0.2 4.9 0.5 23.7

.. 0.2 6.5 0.3 29.0

44.6 0.2 6.6 0.3 30.2

48.2 0.2 6.7 0.3 27.7

51.8 0.2 6.6 0.3 25.5

31.8 0.2 4.3 0.2 50.8

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 780 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 386 65 0 0 0 101 60 0 0 0 285 5 0 0 0 370 42 0 0 0 248 41 0 0 0 121 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 982 668 591 -146 -396 689 93 166 -52 -341 250 321 115 -163 -117 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,575 0 298 298 0 189 189 0 605 384 0 0

662 158 340

375 -247 444

302 82 209

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.9 7.4 2.5 3.3

5.1 15.7 6.8 32.0

2.2 31.8 9.0 63.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.8 39.4 9.9 80.2

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.8 42.4 10.4 81.4

5.9 18.1 5.8 28.4

4.3 16.9 7.2 37.3

2.2 31.8 9.0 63.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.8 39.4 9.9 80.2

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.8 42.4 10.4 81.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.6 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

219 78

211 107

129 104

136 112

137 104

55 98

54 97

67 95

219 78

211 107

129 104

136 112

137 104

55 98

54 97

67 95

192 73

184 102

105 100

118 109

120 101

38 95

37 94

48 92

28 5

26 4

25 4

18 3

17 3

17 3

17 3

18 3

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004.

119

COSTA RICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,400 3,835 3,533 302 189 377 13 10 3

3,756 3,367 3,063 304 11 377 77 76 2

3,802 3,348 3,133 214 24 430 32 28 4

4,456 3,500 3,264 236 0 956 20 17 3

4,650 3,489 3,273 216 0 1,161 20 16 3

4,834 3,335 3,139 196 0 1,499 16 16 0

5,424 3,797 3,622 175 0 1,626 16 16 0

5,700 4,013 3,859 154 0 1,687 17 16 0

45 9 36

173 167 6

118 114 3

78 76 2

75 73 2

76 74 2

77 75 2

77 75 2

355 321 35 166 145 22 284 95 360 343 14 3 -76 527 488 36 3

206 206 0 295 269 26 -108 -20 206 171 3 32 -315 501 440 29 32

211 211 0 399 355 44 -146 42 251 224 3 23 -397 650 580 47 23

508 508 0 387 387 0 300 179 261 205 0 56 38 648 592 0 56

444 444 0 416 416 0 234 206 282 239 0 43 -48 697 654 0 43

171 171 0 390 390 0 122 341 280 239 0 41 -158 670 629 0 41

885 885 0 525 525 0 487 128 316 254 0 62 171 841 779 0 62

511 511 0 479 479 0 92 60 208 142 0 66 -116 686 621 0 66

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

411 176 70 0 165 27

210 -63 163 0 110 73

223 -144 337 0 30 77

555 121 409 0 25 24

503 28 454 0 21 42

465 -220 662 0 22 29

957 360 574 0 24 29

682 32 620 0 30 30

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

41 343 27

-20 171 60

-110 224 109

-791 205 1,141

-332 239 596

-280 239 506

-7 254 710

-129 142 668

15,611 7,204 198 7,888 1,330 -713

16,307 7,692 251 8,555 1,497 -916

16,637 8,709 321 9,545 1,837 -929

17,979 9,400 320 10,145 1,919 -831

64.5 29.8 9.7 3.9 1.8 28.6 2.0 25.0 11.4 27.8

62.8 29.6 8.7 3.6 1.7 31.0 2.1 31.0 10.3 26.0

62.3 32.6 9.7 3.6 1.9 33.9 2.3 30.0 9.4 27.0

60.6 31.7 7.3 2.2 1.2 33.7 2.3 29.6 8.0 26.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

3,637 1,270 7 1,615 525 -126

5,460 2,094 12 2,709 525 -424

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

346.4 121.0 41.5 28.4 9.9 11.9 3.9 8.6 15.6 17.5

179.4 68.8 23.9 9.9 3.8 14.0 2.3 10.0 23.6 30.4

11,497 4,713 123 5,089 1,060 -358

14,694 8,113 136 8,793 1,318 -707

4. DEBT INDICATORS 80.7 33.1 13.8 5.3 2.2 27.9 2.5 11.3 24.2 35.6

120

54.9 30.3 8.0 3.2 1.8 29.6 1.8 21.4 13.1 29.1

COSTA RICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3,835 3,533 1,735 771 226 964 461 1,798 220 1,530 302 0 302

3,367 3,063 2,359 1,141 246 1,218 642 704 609 41 304 0 304

3,348 3,133 2,492 1,352 199 1,139 721 642 572 33 214 0 214

3,500 3,264 1,909 1,295 182 615 399 1,355 1,292 36 236 0 236

3,489 3,273 1,718 1,294 187 424 344 1,555 1,500 28 216 0 216

3,335 3,139 1,624 1,256 197 368 301 1,515 1,456 34 196 0 196

3,797 3,622 1,820 1,466 214 354 296 1,802 1,661 118 175 0 175

4,013 3,859 1,802 1,498 201 304 257 2,057 1,910 125 154 0 154

308 4 3,519 316

409 3 3,059 308

300 3 3,131 216

121 2 3,263 237

102 2 3,272 217

91 1 3,138 197

80 1 3,621 176

71 1 3,858 155

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

321 321 228 161 31 67 32 92 0 88 0 0 0

206 201 170 89 13 81 76 31 0 30 5 0 5

211 201 190 172 6 18 12 11 0 11 10 0 10

508 499 249 130 10 118 10 250 250 0 9 0 9

444 444 194 181 18 13 13 250 250 0 0 0 0

171 171 155 145 23 10 10 15 0 15 0 0 0

885 885 319 298 20 21 4 565 450 115 0 0 0

511 511 185 184 2 0 0 326 310 16 0 0 0

84 0

5 0

16 0

6 0

8 0

12 0

7 0

8 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

145 129 97 46 6 51 0 33 0 24 15 0 15

269 263 92 79 10 14 3 171 42 124 6 0 6

355 331 321 176 14 145 44 10 4 2 24 0 24

387 370 328 149 15 179 61 42 30 9 17 0 17

416 396 342 151 14 191 57 54 42 9 20 0 20

390 370 315 234 12 81 68 55 44 10 20 0 20

525 504 225 155 16 70 43 279 246 32 21 0 21

479 458 181 164 15 17 17 276 261 15 21 0 21

21 0

45 0

55 0

33 0

27 0

23 0

18 0

17 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

343 323 75 39 5 36 4 248 35 210 20 0 20

171 169 104 77 5 27 9 65 24 36 2 0 2

224 204 162 95 5 67 30 42 37 0 21 0 21

205 189 102 82 3 20 14 87 80 4 16 0 16

239 224 100 83 3 17 12 124 116 4 14 0 14

239 226 95 83 5 12 11 131 123 5 12 0 12

254 243 88 77 6 11 10 156 147 4 11 0 11

142 133 65 61 5 3 3 68 62 5 10 0 10

17 0

33 0

27 0

12 0

10 0

8 0

6 0

4 0

121

COSTA RICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.7 0.7 0.3 74.6

.. 3.0 0.2 0.0 58.2

.. 8.1 0.1 0.0 52.3

.. 4.5 0.0 0.0 77.4

1.5 3.7 0.0 0.0 81.0

1.7 3.8 0.0 0.0 81.3

1.6 3.4 0.0 0.0 84.9

1.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 88.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

554 641 0 0 0 0 469 0 0 0 488 20 0 0 0 69 19 0 0 0 419 0 0 0 0 33 151 0 0 0 28 10 0 0 0 5 141 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 187 0 0 0 0 668 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 401 -834 -107 240 194 284 -108 -146 300 234 93 52 24 -29 -63 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

184 122 57

590 487 66

276 92 29

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.6 18.4 5.0 14.7

6.9 15.4 4.4 18.2

2.6 7.2 1.2 16.8

7.9 11.3 9.9 3.5

7.2 12.0 6.1 14.0

5.6 22.2 2.1 26.8

6.5 8.2 5.0 12.6

6.4 8.7 7.8 18.6

6.7 20.4 5.3 20.7

6.4 17.6 5.0 21.1

2.2 7.3 1.2 17.4

6.3 4.3 1.8 6.2

5.9 17.2 2.0 22.5

5.5 26.6 2.1 30.2

6.0 9.0 2.3 11.6

6.3 5.7 2.7 11.4

9.9 9.5 6.9 10.0 7.7 5.9 13.3 3.2 6.0 20.4 10.3 12.3 4.0 1.1 1.5 20.4 7.4 2.3 -0.9 2.2 8.6 0.0 11.1 19.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

6.7 7.8 6.1 13.0

6.5 10.1 10.1 21.9

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

383 254

324 243

341 230

494 209

601 174

233 147

425 125

132 107

279 81

248 73

267 64

220 54

227 44

171 35

125 28

116 22

42 7

31 6

30 5

29 4

28 4

26 3

19 2

14 2

237 74

216 67

237 59

191 50

199 41

145 32

105 26

103 21

103 173

77 170

74 166

274 155

374 130

62 112

300 97

15 84

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

122

COTE D'IVOIRE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

9,659 8,255 5,791 2,464 665 739 14 6 8

17,251 13,223 10,665 2,558 431 3,597 819 66 753

18,899 14,562 11,902 2,660 427 3,910 1,020 34 986

12,138 10,546 9,063 1,482 549 1,043 79 70 8

11,618 9,975 8,603 1,372 464 1,179 376 216 160

11,791 10,369 9,110 1,259 491 932 267 60 207

12,187 10,844 9,700 1,144 425 917 359 115 245

11,739 10,837 9,828 1,010 311 591 483 198 285

56 6 50

1,727 16 1,710

2,686 32 2,655

169 125 44

466 375 91

284 179 105

375 222 152

633 434 200

403 342 61 357 251 106 142 95 757 643 56 58 -616 1,114 893 163 58

1,172 1,019 153 621 498 123 1,189 639 641 443 31 167 548 1,262 941 155 167

924 743 181 625 539 86 935 636 421 390 8 23 514 1,046 929 94 23

148 148 0 481 442 39 -617 -283 539 462 3 74 -1,156 1,020 904 42 74

12 12 0 369 302 67 -518 -161 252 215 3 34 -770 621 518 69 34

299 223 76 522 436 86 -362 -139 309 280 3 26 -671 831 716 89 26

57 57 0 430 325 105 -480 -106 142 121 2 18 -622 572 447 107 18

40 40 0 443 316 127 -853 -450 100 88 2 10 -953 543 404 129 10

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

136 92 29 0 15 44

855 521 48 0 287 129

871 204 211 1 454 123

180 -294 235 1 238 73

200 -291 273 2 216 70

677 -213 213 4 673 78

197 -269 165 16 284 76

113 -276 175 -1 216 79

-560 643 53

338 443 75

277 390 204

-566 462 284

-285 215 270

113 280 284

-259 121 335

25 88 0

9,723 4,512 119 4,423 668 -241

9,920 4,661 116 4,412 1,019 -61

10,802 6,001 120 4,771 1,863 768

13,014 6,623 142 5,841 1,304 295

14,703 7,830 148 7,065 1,694 303

269.0 124.8 22.6 11.9 5.5 5.5 1.8 8.6 34.0 24.4

249.3 117.1 13.3 5.4 2.5 8.8 2.8 10.1 33.4 23.7

196.5 109.2 13.9 5.1 2.9 15.8 4.7 7.9 38.4 25.8

184.0 93.6 8.6 2.1 1.1 10.7 2.7 7.5 40.9 27.0

149.9 79.8 6.9 1.3 0.7 14.4 2.9 5.0 43.7 29.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

6,296 3,199 24 2,879 19 68

9,209 3,561 44 4,594 21 -1,214

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

301.9 153.4 34.8 23.7 12.0 0.2 0.1 7.7 7.0 12.5

484.5 187.3 35.4 18.0 7.0 0.1 0.1 20.8 17.9 20.8

10,013 4,526 151 4,782 529 -492

4. DEBT INDICATORS 417.5 188.7 23.1 9.3 4.2 2.8 1.3 20.7 24.1 20.6

123

COTE D'IVOIRE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

8,255 5,791 2,612 1,206 121 1,406 557 3,179 4 2,256 2,464 0 2,464

13,223 10,665 7,686 3,585 1,149 4,101 1,946 2,980 0 2,640 2,558 0 2,558

14,562 11,902 9,217 3,900 1,286 5,317 3,277 2,685 0 2,630 2,660 0 2,660

10,546 9,063 6,669 2,958 1,676 3,711 2,450 2,394 2,343 14 1,482 0 1,482

9,975 8,603 6,211 2,758 1,622 3,453 2,257 2,392 2,343 14 1,372 0 1,372

10,369 9,110 6,752 3,040 1,973 3,712 2,553 2,358 2,343 0 1,259 0 1,259

10,844 9,700 7,341 3,289 2,146 4,052 2,841 2,359 2,343 1 1,144 0 1,144

10,837 9,828 7,467 3,449 2,281 4,018 2,853 2,360 2,343 1 1,010 0 1,010

965 7 5,780 2,474

1,913 7 10,663 2,560

1,573 813 11,901 2,661

599 1,366 9,063 1,482

499 1,318 8,603 1,372

479 1,589 9,110 1,259

481 1,786 9,700 1,144

479 1,904 9,828 1,010

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

342 296 157 82 4 75 38 139 0 111 46 0 46

1,019 769 758 460 21 298 283 11 0 2 250 0 250

743 670 669 340 239 329 309 1 0 1 73 0 73

148 148 148 148 131 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

223 223 223 223 211 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

57 57 57 57 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

40 40 40 40 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

70 0

261 0

19 226

0 76

0 5

0 174

0 52

0 38

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

251 159 65 58 2 7 5 93 0 45 92 0 92

498 319 247 230 70 16 5 72 1 25 179 0 179

539 514 479 286 46 193 19 36 0 5 25 0 25

442 329 283 143 34 140 97 46 46 0 113 0 113

302 192 192 106 3 86 67 0 0 0 110 0 110

436 322 322 229 16 93 79 1 0 0 114 0 114

325 210 210 99 12 111 98 0 0 0 115 0 115

316 182 182 57 11 125 115 0 0 0 134 0 134

44 0

125 0

199 0

57 0

72 0

90 13

82 8

38 5

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

643 436 137 89 1 48 13 299 0 247 207 0 207

443 205 187 176 3 12 2 18 0 7 237 0 237

390 257 252 172 7 81 40 5 0 1 133 0 133

462 342 189 78 11 111 47 153 153 0 120 0 120

215 113 113 70 9 44 38 0 0 0 102 0 102

280 184 184 144 19 40 36 0 0 0 96 0 96

121 92 92 47 13 46 43 0 0 0 29 0 29

88 65 65 22 8 43 41 0 0 0 23 0 23

82 0

141 0

135 5

32 8

38 8

49 15

31 11

11 6

124

COTE D'IVOIRE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.4 0.9 2.8 30.9

.. 0.9 1.3 2.3 15.5

.. 1.4 0.9 0.5 22.0

.. 1.4 0.6 0.2 53.7

33.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 54.6

31.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 56.8

31.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 56.9

29.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 58.7

734 930 381 72 40 0 0 0 0 0 611 590 192 45 28 41 407 189 44 28 570 183 4 0 0 48 286 131 24 11 22 257 129 24 11 26 29 1 0 0 0 50 292 22 12 0 0 30 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 1,113 2,430 1,503 -1,032 -520 142 1,189 935 -617 -518 718 829 17 -468 -278 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

325 0 173 165 7 153 151 1 323 140 0 0

197 0 107 107 0 91 91 0 185 79 0 0

182 0 110 110 0 72 72 0 184 41 0 0

173 -362 814

395 -480 940

-447 -853 397

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.7 15.9 4.9 2.1

5.9 20.0 6.3 27.5

1.9 29.8 8.5 63.7

0.8 46.2 9.6 81.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 42.6 9.9 81.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.9 19.4 5.7 6.2

5.9 20.0 6.3 27.5

1.9 29.8 8.5 63.9

0.8 46.2 9.6 81.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 42.6 9.9 81.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.9 0.0 14.5 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 19.6 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -8.8 0.0 -27.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

898 369

832 325

811 283

776 247

700 215

612 187

578 164

558 142

589 261

551 230

483 201

476 176

427 154

353 135

333 121

313 107

304 169

286 156

254 142

266 131

249 121

233 110

233 100

220 90

285 92

265 74

228 58

209 45

178 33

119 25

100 21

93 17

308 107

281 95

328 83

300 71

273 61

259 52

245 43

245 35

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004.

125

CROATIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,830 3,117 1,860 1,257 221 492 71 1 70

12,438 11,338 6,111 5,227 158 942 45 3 42

12,663 11,970 6,424 5,545 122 571 62 4 58

16,682 16,021 7,679 8,342 0 661 67 2 65

25,736 23,600 10,062 13,538 0 2,136 101 6 96

31,548 29,338 11,668 17,670 0 2,210 86 3 83

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

547 1 546

209 1 208

470 9 461

489 0 488

674 8 666

595 3 592

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

618 519 99 240 234 6 627 249 126 98 10 18 502 366 332 16 18

3,357 3,357 0 2,442 2,413 29 1,164 249 609 566 9 34 555 3,051 2,979 38 34

4,111 4,111 0 3,269 3,239 31 454 -388 830 791 7 32 -376 4,099 4,029 38 32

4,990 4,990 0 3,268 3,142 126 1,807 85 782 734 3 45 1,025 4,050 3,876 129 45

9,162 9,162 0 3,495 3,495 0 7,082 1,415 903 813 0 90 6,179 4,399 4,309 0 90

7,824 7,824 0 4,093 4,093 0 3,820 89 1,202 1,110 0 92 2,619 5,294 5,202 0 92

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

434 285 114 5 31 21

2,075 944 1,085 0 46 31

2,292 873 1,338 14 67 43

3,160 1,848 1,213 36 62 61

7,878 5,666 2,133 16 63 73

5,214 3,731 1,243 177 63 78

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

329 98 6

1,358 566 151

1,168 791 333

2,077 734 349

6,061 813 1,004

3,369 1,110 736

19,318 10,649 747 11,777 4,703 -727

22,286 11,697 885 14,027 5,885 -1,917

27,586 16,248 1,085 18,925 8,191 -2,066

33,539 19,483 1,222 21,756 8,758 -1,641

118.9 65.6 38.5 7.8 4.3 37.1 4.8 4.5 2.5 5.2

142.6 74.9 34.6 6.7 3.5 35.3 5.0 4.0 2.3 5.5

158.4 93.3 27.1 5.6 3.3 31.8 5.2 8.3 1.9 5.0

161.9 94.1 27.2 6.2 3.6 27.8 4.8 7.0 1.7 4.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

18,782 7,465 544 9,354 1,896 -1,592

18,030 9,516 641 10,333 3,524 -471

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

51.3 20.4 4.9 1.7 0.7 49.5 2.4 12.8 8.9 7.9

126

130.7 69.0 32.1 6.4 3.4 28.3 4.1 7.6 2.5 4.8

CROATIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,117 1,860 1,563 304 11 1,259 330 297 0 193 1,257 0 1,257

11,338 6,111 1,455 593 76 862 239 4,656 3,136 1,245 5,227 0 5,227

11,970 6,424 1,451 654 90 797 232 4,974 3,772 909 5,545 0 5,545

16,021 7,679 1,748 911 134 837 250 5,932 4,179 1,459 8,342 0 8,342

23,600 10,062 2,178 1,299 195 878 285 7,884 5,315 2,328 13,538 0 13,538

29,338 11,668 2,350 1,473 194 877 336 9,318 6,631 2,467 17,670 0 17,670

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

117 0 1,275 1,842

395 0 5,394 5,945

427 0 5,749 6,221

588 0 6,997 9,024

777 0 9,419 14,181

856 0 11,126 18,213

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

519 203 72 60 0 12 6 131 0 100 315 0 315

3,357 1,513 219 83 9 136 17 1,293 833 307 1,844 0 1,844

4,111 1,413 133 100 11 33 14 1,280 1,024 181 2,698 0 2,698

4,990 1,667 259 217 23 42 9 1,408 672 675 3,323 0 3,323

9,162 2,016 376 316 35 60 25 1,640 781 817 7,146 0 7,146

7,824 1,999 248 187 0 62 62 1,750 1,305 421 5,826 0 5,826

.. ..

.. ..

50 0

55 0

75 0

135 0

160 0

98 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

234 73 52 52 12 0 0 21 0 0 161 0 161

2,413 696 149 44 0 105 15 547 129 378 1,717 0 1,717

3,239 924 115 36 0 79 17 810 234 491 2,314 0 2,314

3,142 1,181 149 60 0 89 17 1,032 699 249 1,961 0 1,961

3,495 808 185 73 0 112 24 622 302 201 2,688 0 2,688

4,093 1,161 235 103 15 132 33 926 395 471 2,931 0 2,931

.. ..

.. ..

20 0

22 0

18 0

30 0

47 0

62 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

98 32 27 25 1 2 0 5 0 0 66 0 66

566 393 78 32 3 46 9 316 223 79 173 0 173

791 422 81 31 2 50 11 341 251 76 368 0 368

734 378 76 38 5 38 7 302 235 55 356 0 356

813 415 78 42 6 36 7 338 259 67 398 0 398

1,110 463 78 44 8 34 8 385 296 82 646 0 646

.. ..

.. ..

7 0

19 0

19 0

25 0

24 0

21 0

127

CROATIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 3.7 3.3 2.7 30.2

.. 9.6 0.6 2.0 40.8

47.4 10.9 0.5 1.8 35.5

56.2 10.1 0.4 1.8 28.2

61.3 10.9 0.4 1.4 23.5

69.5 9.6 0.3 1.1 17.3

.. 1,065 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 781 0 0 .. 719 0 0 .. 62 0 0 .. 70 0 0 .. 43 0 0 .. 27 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 1,776 1,028 225 .. .. 627 1,164 454 .. .. 29 -206 -214 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4,019 1,807 662

9,054 7,082 978

5,812 3,820 523

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

4.6 8.6 2.6 13.3

5.8 6.3 4.7 17.8

5.2 9.4 6.3 23.4

4.7 8.1 4.9 22.5

3.2 9.4 3.9 29.5

4.6 8.3 7.9 28.0

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

6.1 13.7 3.9 17.9

6.4 12.5 5.7 19.5

4.0 14.5 4.7 34.5

4.1 15.9 5.2 35.7

3.3 16.0 4.5 38.7

2.9 13.8 4.7 40.2

.. .. 2.7 5.8 5.5 4.8 .. .. 2.4 5.9 7.9 7.0 .. .. 1.2 4.6 6.8 4.8 .. .. 7.8 17.7 20.0 20.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.1 7.5 3.7 26.8

4.7 8.1 8.0 27.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

4,589 1,083

5,915 936

3,491 754

2,690 618

4,605 512

1,733 350

2,650 228

764 144

273 91

313 85

360 77

374 68

382 55

239 43

230 35

176 27

144 32

151 26

159 20

149 14

154 7

31 2

19 1

15 1

129 59

162 59

201 57

225 54

229 48

208 41

210 34

160 27

4,316 991

5,601 851

3,132 677

2,316 550

4,223 457

1,494 307

2,420 192

588 117

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public, publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed, and short term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Other: Croatia became a member of the World Bank in 1993. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004 and the London Club agreement signed in March 1996.

128

CZECH REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

16,290 11,220 9,760 1,460 0 5,070 28 0 28

21,602 12,585 6,557 6,028 0 9,018 59 0 59

22,805 13,224 5,708 7,515 0 9,581 50 0 50

27,664 16,906 7,090 9,816 0 10,758 90 0 90

34,807 20,831 8,735 12,096 0 13,976 109 0 109

45,561 28,470 12,020 16,450 0 17,091 32 0 32

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

105 0 105

128 0 128

127 0 127

248 0 248

84 0 84

55 0 55

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

4,383 4,383 0 1,667 1,667 0 4,870 2,154 744 506 0 238 4,126 2,411 2,173 0 238

1,566 1,566 0 3,443 3,443 0 -1,664 212 1,432 1,054 0 378 -3,097 4,875 4,497 0 378

2,276 2,276 0 3,366 3,366 0 -518 572 1,459 1,095 0 364 -1,976 4,824 4,461 0 364

5,108 5,108 0 3,072 3,072 0 1,724 -312 1,367 975 0 391 357 4,438 4,047 0 391

6,154 6,154 0 4,283 4,283 0 3,447 1,576 1,236 868 0 368 2,211 5,519 5,151 0 368

8,878 8,878 0 6,851 6,851 0 5,219 3,192 1,458 917 0 541 3,761 8,309 7,768 0 541

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

6,566 2,716 2,568 1,236 46 97

3,824 -1,877 4,987 619 94 20

5,260 -1,089 5,641 616 92 19

10,396 2,036 8,497 -265 128 32

5,222 1,871 2,021 1,105 225 38

7,461 2,027 4,454 738 243 37

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

5,994 506 66

1,390 1,054 1,379

2,036 1,095 2,129

6,213 975 3,207

132 868 4,222

1,662 917 4,883

58,682 42,728 257 46,471 14,464 -3,273

70,177 47,614 334 52,791 23,707 -4,265

86,317 59,176 498 65,510 26,955 -5,785

101,581 79,309 454 85,139 28,451 -5,595

53.4 38.9 11.3 3.4 2.5 63.4 3.7 42.0 1.3 4.1

58.1 39.4 9.3 2.9 1.9 85.7 5.4 38.9 1.2 4.2

58.8 40.3 9.3 2.1 1.4 77.4 4.9 40.2 1.2 4.5

57.4 44.9 10.5 1.8 1.4 62.4 4.0 37.5 0.9 3.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

55,159 29,399 191 31,345 14,613 -1,374

54,338 37,811 297 40,873 13,142 -2,690

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

55.4 29.5 8.2 2.5 1.3 89.7 5.6 31.1 0.5 5.6

129

57.1 39.8 12.9 3.8 2.6 60.8 3.9 41.7 1.1 3.9

CZECH REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

11,220 9,760 1,355 912 28 444 51 8,405 860 6,621 1,460 39 1,421

12,585 6,557 1,191 840 19 351 219 5,366 1,378 3,539 6,028 483 5,545

13,224 5,708 1,321 931 18 389 270 4,388 1,350 2,409 7,515 200 7,315

16,906 7,090 1,606 1,163 0 444 320 5,484 1,702 3,186 9,816 200 9,616

20,831 8,735 2,061 1,580 0 481 415 6,674 1,808 4,429 12,096 200 11,896

28,470 12,020 2,203 1,759 0 443 399 9,817 4,613 3,848 16,450 417 16,032

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

434 0 9,323 1,897

260 0 6,181 6,404

205 0 5,354 7,870

185 0 6,323 10,583

66 0 7,940 12,891

52 0 11,216 17,254

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

4,383 3,448 223 180 0 43 18 3,225 20 3,007 935 36 900

1,566 391 164 81 0 82 77 227 0 227 1,175 0 1,175

2,276 377 303 204 0 99 77 74 54 20 1,899 0 1,899

5,108 1,055 129 102 0 27 18 927 430 496 4,052 0 4,052

6,154 1,794 440 388 0 52 52 1,354 342 1,012 4,360 0 4,360

8,878 3,561 164 158 0 6 0 3,397 2,484 913 5,316 213 5,104

.. ..

.. ..

57 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,667 1,420 105 71 0 34 0 1,315 17 823 247 0 247

3,443 1,426 95 63 0 33 7 1,331 325 789 2,017 0 2,017

3,366 1,278 103 74 0 29 7 1,175 34 1,020 2,088 282 1,806

3,072 896 144 111 20 33 13 751 250 468 2,176 0 2,176

4,283 1,319 292 201 0 91 20 1,027 434 433 2,964 0 2,964

6,851 1,834 176 103 0 72 41 1,658 0 1,578 5,017 0 5,017

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

43 0

41 0

41 0

135 0

19 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

506 456 86 58 2 28 1 370 117 149 50 0 50

1,054 760 67 48 1 19 9 693 114 497 295 38 257

1,095 631 72 53 1 19 11 559 86 396 464 20 444

975 444 77 56 1 21 14 367 74 292 531 18 513

868 458 80 58 0 22 16 378 117 206 410 18 392

917 521 84 63 0 21 18 437 163 253 396 18 378

.. ..

.. ..

28 0

17 0

13 0

11 0

10 0

3 0

130

CZECH REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 8.1 0.0 3.1 65.6

.. 2.9 0.0 0.0 55.5

36.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 48.5

37.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 50.8

46.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 47.5

56.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 31.6

.. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 2 3 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 5,609 -1,196 1,202 .. .. 4,870 -1,664 -518 .. .. 144 -220 -139 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4,859 1,724 432

7,143 3,447 572

10,754 5,219 325

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

7.2 15.8 3.0 14.1

5.7 14.3 4.3 21.3

5.6 15.0 5.6 25.4

6.0 9.4 4.5 17.3

3.0 9.8 2.4 25.9

4.3 8.5 8.0 28.6

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

4.6 17.6 4.7 33.2

5.8 18.4 5.8 26.2

5.3 17.3 4.2 26.7

3.9 20.8 5.8 41.2

2.6 26.6 4.1 51.7

3.3 9.3 9.3 39.6

.. .. 7.7 5.6 6.2 6.3 .. .. 15.4 7.8 9.8 7.8 .. .. 2.7 1.9 8.6 4.3 .. .. 10.5 13.4 22.6 13.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.1 5.8 2.1 19.7

4.3 8.5 8.0 28.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

4,946 1,009

4,844 828

2,642 676

2,465 570

2,043 469

1,577 397

1,898 318

1,380 263

167 61

175 63

192 56

168 51

163 48

156 43

161 38

159 33

34 13

34 12

48 11

48 9

45 8

42 7

42 5

40 4

134 49

141 51

144 46

120 41

117 41

114 37

119 33

119 29

4,779 948

4,669 765

2,449 620

2,297 520

1,881 421

1,421 354

1,737 280

1,222 230

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt for 2004 are preliminary, based on reports provided by the country and World Bank estimates. Data for 1985–92 are based on preliminary information on the succession of the former Czechoslovakia (effective January 1, 1993). Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

131

DJIBOUTI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

144.0 96.0 96.0 0.0 0.0 48.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

205.3 155.2 155.2 0.0 0.0 50.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

281.8 268.9 268.9 0.0 0.0 12.9 3.5 3.5 0.0

262.2 237.9 237.9 0.0 13.4 10.9 6.9 6.9 0.0

262.7 235.7 235.7 0.0 15.5 11.5 7.4 7.4 0.0

335.3 305.2 305.2 0.0 20.5 9.6 6.2 5.6 0.6

396.1 366.5 366.5 0.0 20.4 9.2 8.3 7.6 0.7

428.5 393.9 393.9 0.0 21.2 13.4 8.7 8.0 0.7

0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 0.0

13.1 13.1 0.0

24.4 24.4 0.0

26.8 26.8 0.0

7.7 5.7 2.0

16.8 14.3 2.5

20.3 17.4 2.9

31.6 31.6 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 53.7 24.0 5.2 2.2 0.0 3.0 48.5 7.1 4.1 0.0 3.0

27.0 27.0 0.0 8.9 8.9 0.0 20.8 2.8 6.0 2.1 0.0 3.9 14.8 14.9 11.0 0.0 3.9

18.4 18.4 0.0 9.2 9.2 0.0 13.2 3.9 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.5 10.7 11.6 11.1 0.0 0.5

11.3 7.7 3.6 10.7 8.4 2.3 -2.2 -2.9 2.8 2.2 0.4 0.2 -5.1 13.5 10.6 2.7 0.2

16.9 12.2 4.6 8.9 6.8 2.0 8.0 0.1 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.2 6.3 10.6 8.1 2.3 0.2

36.8 30.9 5.9 9.5 7.2 2.3 26.6 -0.6 2.5 2.2 0.2 0.1 24.1 12.1 9.4 2.5 0.1

30.4 30.4 0.0 12.3 10.5 1.8 15.5 -2.6 3.3 3.1 0.1 0.0 12.2 15.6 13.6 2.0 0.0

26.4 26.4 0.0 13.5 13.3 0.2 16.7 3.8 4.5 4.2 0.1 0.2 12.3 17.9 17.5 0.3 0.2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

62.5 29.7 0.2 0.0 32.6 29.7

148.8 18.0 0.1 0.0 130.7 43.8

61.1 9.2 3.0 0.0 48.8 45.7

30.5 -0.7 3.3 0.0 27.9 23.6

27.6 5.4 3.4 0.0 18.8 25.1

55.7 23.7 3.5 0.0 28.6 23.8

57.3 19.9 11.4 0.0 26.0 27.8

76.4 13.1 33.0 0.0 30.3 30.1

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

60.3 2.2 0.0

146.7 2.1 0.0

54.5 2.0 4.6

28.3 2.2 0.0

26.3 1.3 0.0

53.5 2.2 0.0

54.2 3.1 0.0

72.2 4.2 0.0

568.7 .. 0.0 .. 67.8 ..

586.1 .. 0.0 .. 70.3 ..

602.4 .. 0.0 .. 73.7 ..

665.9 .. 0.0 .. 100.1 ..

716.0 .. 0.0 .. 93.9 ..

.. 46.1 .. .. 0.5 25.9 .. 4.2 90.5 52.8

.. 44.8 .. .. 0.3 26.8 .. 4.4 89.3 54.7

.. 55.7 .. .. 0.4 22.0 .. 2.9 87.8 58.7

.. 59.5 .. .. 0.5 25.3 .. 2.3 89.3 61.8

.. 59.8 .. .. 0.6 21.9 .. 3.1 89.1 64.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. 0.0 .. 50.9 ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. 35.4 .. 33.3 58.6 23.7

.. .. 0.0 .. 93.6 ..

515.0 211.8 12.0 300.8 72.2 -23.0

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. 45.6 .. 24.4 74.0 41.9

133.0 54.7 5.5 1.2 0.5 25.6 2.9 4.6 94.8 48.4

132

DJIBOUTI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

96.0 96.0 89.5 34.1 31.7 55.4 52.7 6.5 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

155.2 155.2 155.2 86.1 83.0 69.2 68.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

268.9 268.9 268.9 136.4 134.7 132.5 132.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

237.9 237.9 237.9 138.3 137.7 99.6 99.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

235.7 235.7 235.7 143.8 142.7 91.9 91.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

305.2 305.2 299.7 197.0 193.7 102.7 100.9 5.6 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

366.5 366.5 360.9 244.7 238.5 116.2 115.1 5.6 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

393.9 393.9 388.4 274.5 269.0 113.9 113.0 5.6 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 6.8 96.0 0.0

0.0 31.1 155.2 0.0

0.0 46.2 268.9 0.0

0.0 49.9 237.9 0.0

0.0 56.1 235.7 0.0

0.0 78.5 305.2 0.0

0.0 112.1 366.5 0.0

0.0 126.4 393.9 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

31.6 31.6 30.3 14.1 14.0 16.2 16.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

27.0 27.0 27.0 8.9 8.9 18.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

18.4 18.4 18.4 10.0 10.0 8.4 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.9 30.9 30.9 26.6 25.2 4.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.4 30.4 30.4 27.8 27.8 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

26.4 26.4 26.4 25.2 25.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 5.0

0.0 2.5

0.0 2.8

0.0 3.9

0.0 8.9

0.0 17.7

0.0 25.8

0.0 9.8

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.9 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.9 8.9 8.3 3.5 3.3 4.8 4.7 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.2 9.2 9.2 4.4 4.1 4.8 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.4 8.4 8.4 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.8 6.8 6.8 1.6 1.6 5.2 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.2 7.2 7.2 2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.5 10.5 10.5 3.4 3.1 7.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.3 13.3 13.3 5.3 4.4 8.0 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.6

0.0 0.6

0.0 0.9

0.0 1.2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.2 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 2.2 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.1 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.2 4.2 4.2 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.7

0.0 1.1

133

DJIBOUTI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2

18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.1

16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.3

16.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1

16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 58.0 26.8 18.7 -12.5 0.6 53.7 20.8 13.2 -2.2 8.0 5.8 3.0 1.8 -6.5 -3.9 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

72.6 26.6 16.0

60.7 15.5 20.9

32.4 16.7 11.0

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.2 31.6 7.0 59.8

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.3 29.9 6.9 59.5

1.9 31.9 8.0 64.9

1.6 30.7 7.6 64.9

0.9 25.3 6.1 61.1

2.2 31.8 6.9 60.8

2.2 31.6 7.0 59.8

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.3 29.9 6.9 59.5

1.9 31.9 8.0 64.9

1.6 31.2 7.7 65.2

0.9 25.3 6.1 61.1

2.2 31.8 6.9 60.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

22.6 5.3

24.0 5.5

24.0 5.5

25.0 5.4

24.6 5.8

23.2 5.7

24.2 5.4

24.0 5.1

22.5 5.2

24.0 5.5

23.9 5.4

24.8 5.3

24.3 5.7

22.9 5.6

23.9 5.3

23.7 5.0

14.1 1.8

14.5 1.8

14.0 1.7

14.3 1.5

12.4 1.3

9.9 1.2

9.9 1.0

8.9 0.8

8.3 3.4

9.4 3.6

9.9 3.7

10.4 3.8

11.9 4.4

13.0 4.5

14.0 4.3

14.7 4.2

0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.3 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are based on World Bank staff estimates. Data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004.

134

DOMINICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

54.3 44.3 44.3 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

88.0 80.2 80.2 0.0 5.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

107.0 98.6 98.6 0.0 1.7 6.7 0.2 0.2 0.0

166.8 147.8 147.8 0.0 0.0 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

215.5 193.4 193.4 0.0 0.0 22.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

228.7 200.4 200.4 0.0 2.8 25.6 2.1 0.1 1.9

283.8 202.8 202.8 0.0 7.9 73.0 3.0 0.1 2.9

225.7 213.3 213.3 0.0 9.2 3.1 3.1 0.0 3.1

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.1

1.8 1.8 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.0

0.8 0.3 0.5

2.6 1.4 1.2

5.8 4.3 1.4

6.2 6.2 0.0 2.3 0.8 1.5 3.9 0.0 1.5 0.6 1.0 0.0 2.4 3.8 1.4 2.5 0.0

11.5 11.5 0.0 3.8 2.5 1.4 7.8 0.1 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.2 5.9 5.8 4.1 1.6 0.2

9.5 9.5 0.0 4.6 3.7 0.9 4.4 -0.5 2.5 2.1 0.0 0.4 1.9 7.1 5.8 0.9 0.4

56.2 56.2 0.0 6.9 6.9 0.0 49.5 0.2 4.1 3.0 0.0 1.1 45.4 11.0 9.9 0.0 1.1

33.5 33.5 0.0 7.5 7.5 0.0 29.0 3.0 8.6 7.6 0.0 0.9 20.4 16.0 15.1 0.0 0.9

34.6 31.9 2.7 6.1 6.1 0.0 30.0 1.5 6.0 5.3 0.0 0.7 24.0 12.1 11.4 0.0 0.7

20.7 16.1 4.6 7.0 7.0 0.0 60.2 46.5 8.1 6.7 0.1 1.4 52.0 15.1 13.7 0.1 1.4

24.2 23.3 0.9 10.6 10.6 0.0 -56.4 -70.0 7.8 6.7 0.1 1.1 -64.3 18.5 17.3 0.1 1.1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

17.9 5.4 3.0 0.0 9.4 2.6

24.7 9.0 13.0 -0.4 3.1 2.9

84.4 5.8 54.0 0.0 24.6 3.6

65.3 49.3 11.0 0.0 5.0 3.3

46.8 26.0 12.0 0.0 8.8 2.8

58.3 25.8 11.0 0.0 21.4 2.7

32.1 9.1 20.3 0.0 2.8 2.3

48.7 12.7 18.5 0.0 17.5 2.9

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

17.3 0.6 0.0

17.7 1.6 5.4

70.1 2.1 12.2

35.9 3.0 26.3

25.6 7.6 13.6

43.3 5.3 9.6

17.9 6.7 0.0

31.8 6.7 0.0

239.2 149.2 3.0 220.1 29.4 -52.9

242.6 123.4 4.0 190.0 31.2 -49.1

231.9 125.4 4.0 177.3 45.5 -38.1

241.0 114.8 4.0 180.5 47.7 -50.1

254.2 .. 4.0 .. 42.3 ..

111.8 69.7 7.4 2.8 1.7 17.6 1.6 11.4 59.2 49.9

174.6 88.8 13.0 6.9 3.5 14.5 2.0 10.2 59.2 50.4

182.4 98.6 9.7 4.8 2.6 19.9 3.1 11.2 50.8 44.9

247.3 117.8 13.2 7.1 3.4 16.8 3.2 25.7 43.7 39.4

.. 88.8 .. .. 3.1 18.8 .. 1.4 60.2 55.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

93.4 49.7 11.0 65.7 3.3 -6.3

161.4 102.8 14.0 142.9 14.5 -43.5

109.3 58.2 7.7 3.1 1.7 6.0 0.6 0.0 80.9 61.2

85.5 54.5 5.6 1.9 1.2 16.4 1.2 2.3 87.3 65.7

210.7 114.9 3.0 163.5 22.1 -40.7

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

93.1 50.8 6.1 2.1 1.2 20.7 1.6 6.3 83.2 61.0

135

DOMINICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

44.3 44.3 44.3 33.3 33.0 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

80.2 80.2 80.2 57.8 54.4 22.4 22.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

98.6 98.6 98.6 65.3 55.7 33.3 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

147.8 147.8 115.9 83.2 67.0 32.7 31.8 31.9 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

193.4 193.4 149.8 108.7 87.2 41.1 40.3 43.6 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

200.4 200.4 140.1 102.6 84.5 37.4 31.6 60.3 35.6 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

202.8 202.8 152.6 111.8 91.4 40.7 32.5 50.3 36.9 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

213.3 213.3 164.3 124.1 103.6 40.2 32.2 49.0 36.9 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 4.6 44.3 0.0

0.0 10.4 80.2 0.0

0.0 12.2 98.6 0.0

2.4 13.6 147.8 0.0

2.7 13.8 193.4 0.0

3.7 16.6 200.4 0.0

4.1 18.2 202.8 0.0

4.1 23.2 213.3 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6.2 6.2 6.2 5.9 5.9 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.5 11.5 11.5 8.3 6.7 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.5 9.5 9.5 3.5 2.7 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

56.2 56.2 25.7 19.3 13.9 6.3 5.6 30.5 30.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

33.5 33.5 21.7 15.4 10.2 6.4 6.4 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

31.9 31.9 15.3 9.1 6.9 6.2 1.2 16.7 3.7 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.1 16.1 15.1 10.9 8.7 4.2 1.7 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.3 23.3 23.3 21.8 18.4 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.9

0.0 0.1

0.7 -0.1

0.3 0.9

1.0 1.8

0.7 0.3

0.4 4.3

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.7 3.7 3.7 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.9 6.9 6.9 3.8 3.2 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.5 7.5 7.5 5.4 4.8 2.1 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.1 6.1 6.1 4.4 3.9 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.0 7.0 6.8 5.2 4.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.6 10.6 10.6 8.1 5.9 2.6 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.2 0.2

0.4 0.2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.0 3.0 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.6 7.6 4.5 3.2 2.0 1.3 1.1 3.2 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.3 5.3 3.4 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.8 1.9 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.7 6.7 4.3 2.9 2.1 1.4 1.2 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.7 6.7 3.6 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.0 3.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.1 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.2 0.2

136

DOMINICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.5 21.5 0.0 53.7

.. 0.3 16.5 0.0 51.7

.. 1.0 12.8 0.0 58.5

.. 0.4 2.7 0.0 80.1

5.7 0.1 1.9 0.0 83.8

5.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 86.2

5.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 86.0

5.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 85.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 7.5 10.4 8.8 49.0 48.7 3.9 7.8 4.4 49.5 29.0 2.3 4.7 1.2 -2.7 -1.6 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.7 4.6 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.3 30.0 4.4

55.0 60.2 4.6

-58.1 -56.4 2.7

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.0 20.6 6.0 40.8

3.0 25.1 8.5 53.8

2.6 26.4 8.8 56.5

4.5 18.7 5.9 33.5

5.8 14.5 4.4 28.0

3.6 17.0 4.1 35.2

2.0 15.0 4.9 41.9

0.8 34.7 10.2 78.7

4.0 20.6 6.0 40.8

3.0 25.1 8.5 53.8

2.6 26.4 8.8 56.5

5.2 21.3 6.9 34.1

4.0 16.1 5.3 36.5

2.1 17.6 5.8 46.8

2.0 15.0 4.9 41.9

0.8 34.7 10.2 78.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 14.3 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 6.7 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.3 -12.9 16.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

26.8 8.1

12.4 7.6

11.5 7.3

12.0 7.0

14.4 6.6

11.5 6.1

10.8 5.7

9.8 5.4

22.6 4.3

11.9 4.0

11.0 3.7

11.5 3.4

11.7 3.1

10.6 2.8

10.3 2.5

9.3 2.2

10.1 1.4

4.7 1.1

3.5 1.0

3.7 0.9

3.7 0.7

2.3 0.6

2.3 0.5

2.0 0.4

12.4 3.0

7.2 2.8

7.5 2.7

7.8 2.6

8.1 2.4

8.3 2.2

8.0 2.0

7.3 1.8

4.2 3.8

0.5 3.7

0.5 3.6

0.5 3.6

2.7 3.5

0.9 3.3

0.5 3.2

0.5 3.2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Debt reduction: As part of its Caribbean initiative, Canada forgave all its official development assistance loans, about $1.7 million, in 1990.

137

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,502 2,841 2,691 151 297 364 39 7 31

4,372 3,518 3,419 99 72 782 506 304 202

4,447 3,672 3,653 19 160 616 214 157 58

4,541 3,311 3,311 0 52 1,178 28 22 6

5,135 3,790 3,790 0 50 1,294 24 17 7

6,251 4,201 4,030 171 27 2,023 32 24 8

6,295 5,081 5,081 0 130 1,084 43 25 18

6,965 5,815 5,815 0 204 946 29 17 11

299 24 275

614 444 169

320 261 59

56 52 4

48 45 3

82 75 6

119 93 26

84 62 22

329 251 78 117 84 33 246 34 185 139 18 28 61 302 223 51 28

138 138 0 146 88 58 15 23 86 59 9 19 -71 232 147 67 19

195 195 0 234 200 34 105 143 175 145 10 20 -70 409 345 44 20

303 303 0 257 257 0 311 265 263 211 3 50 48 520 468 3 50

894 894 0 377 377 0 637 120 245 193 2 50 392 622 570 2 50

735 735 0 404 378 26 1,052 721 267 212 1 54 785 671 590 27 54

1,478 1,356 122 617 589 28 -89 -950 305 244 0 61 -394 922 833 28 61

1,193 1,128 65 461 461 0 608 -124 290 246 5 39 318 750 707 5 39

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

300 167 36 0 97 20

213 50 133 0 29 44

451 -5 414 0 41 51

1,043 46 953 0 44 63

1,642 517 1,079 0 46 73

1,325 357 917 0 51 75

1,424 767 613 0 44 66

1,374 667 645 0 62 64

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

161 139 0

64 59 90

-318 145 624

-236 211 1,068

359 193 1,090

-40 212 1,153

-211 244 1,391

-117 246 1,244

20,511 10,466 1,982 11,426 1,105 -741

20,443 10,496 2,194 11,603 475 -798

15,297 11,341 2,325 10,580 261 1,036

17,203 11,799 2,471 10,698 806 1,399

49.1 25.0 5.9 2.3 1.2 21.5 1.2 25.2 25.8 24.1

59.6 30.6 6.4 2.5 1.3 7.6 0.5 32.4 20.5 21.7

55.5 41.1 8.1 2.7 2.0 4.1 0.3 17.2 19.7 24.0

59.0 40.5 6.4 2.5 1.7 11.6 0.9 13.6 16.4 25.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

4,725 1,586 242 1,808 346 -108

6,759 2,233 315 2,568 69 -280

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

220.8 74.1 19.0 11.7 3.9 9.9 2.3 10.4 26.9 16.1

195.8 64.7 10.4 3.9 1.3 1.6 0.3 17.9 27.5 19.6

11,774 6,653 839 7,034 373 -183

18,662 10,953 1,839 12,193 632 -1,027

4. DEBT INDICATORS 66.8 37.8 6.1 2.6 1.5 8.4 0.6 13.8 37.6 23.2

138

41.5 24.3 4.8 2.4 1.4 13.9 0.6 25.9 31.1 24.9

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,841 2,691 1,790 564 344 1,227 598 900 0 752 151 0 151

3,518 3,419 2,383 858 432 1,525 772 1,036 0 775 99 0 99

3,672 3,653 2,996 1,033 438 1,962 1,234 657 520 33 19 0 19

3,311 3,311 2,541 1,132 452 1,409 963 770 506 83 0 0 0

3,790 3,790 2,455 1,237 437 1,217 887 1,336 987 134 0 0 0

4,201 4,030 2,471 1,357 427 1,114 855 1,559 967 255 171 0 171

5,081 5,081 2,534 1,510 441 1,024 797 2,547 1,547 452 0 0 0

5,815 5,815 2,851 1,745 431 1,106 714 2,964 1,527 574 0 0 0

152 21 2,658 183

238 20 3,391 127

282 17 3,626 46

292 14 3,299 13

317 13 3,778 12

350 13 4,019 182

350 12 5,070 10

379 11 5,806 9

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

251 245 215 105 47 109 53 30 0 0 6 0 6

138 138 136 84 21 53 20 2 0 0 0 0 0

195 195 187 157 44 30 17 8 0 8 0 0 0

303 303 124 100 13 23 23 179 0 61 0 0 0

894 894 247 193 7 55 53 646 500 78 0 0 0

735 547 216 167 2 49 37 331 0 151 188 0 188

1,356 1,356 233 188 3 45 26 1,123 600 250 0 0 0

1,128 1,128 405 325 3 81 53 722 0 265 0 0 0

17 0

39 0

36 0

39 0

49 0

57 0

31 0

66 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

84 71 68 13 3 55 5 3 0 1 13 0 13

88 83 83 38 6 44 8 0 0 0 5 0 5

200 184 161 79 20 82 47 23 0 3 16 0 16

257 257 216 63 18 153 93 41 4 12 0 0 0

377 377 294 73 19 222 111 82 20 27 0 0 0

378 361 252 73 19 179 87 109 20 30 17 0 17

589 418 270 85 19 185 118 148 20 57 171 0 171

461 461 158 105 22 53 27 302 20 141 0 0 0

10 0

19 0

40 1

21 1

23 1

24 1

32 1

37 1

139 129 39 18 4 21 6 90 0 89 10 0 10

59 56 55 32 4 23 7 1 0 0 3 0 3

145 143 120 51 10 69 53 23 13 3 2 0 2

211 211 157 58 8 99 54 54 38 6 0 0 0

193 193 141 65 8 76 46 52 33 7 0 0 0

212 202 111 63 7 48 29 91 63 12 9 0 9

244 235 109 62 8 47 32 126 87 19 9 0 9

246 246 87 77 9 10 8 159 111 22 0 0 0

12 0

14 0

20 0

22 0

23 0

22 0

21 0

21 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

139

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 1.9 0.0 0.0 75.8

.. 6.4 0.0 0.0 68.4

.. 7.7 0.0 0.0 63.7

.. 5.0 0.0 0.0 73.8

2.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 79.0

2.4 4.2 0.0 0.0 79.9

2.1 3.7 0.0 0.0 83.5

2.3 2.9 0.0 0.0 86.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

279 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 1 1 0 0 142 1 1 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 83 2 0 0 0 63 2 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 391 334 173 -145 594 246 15 105 311 637 33 52 18 -51 -40 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0

210 0 173 167 6 37 30 7 0 0 0 0

1,117 1,052 54

43 -89 -126

670 608 9

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.1 17.1 6.5 10.9

5.9 24.5 6.4 31.3

6.6 19.8 5.1 21.2

6.6 9.3 2.1 12.9

6.5 9.5 3.4 14.1

2.6 12.1 -1.5 34.4

5.0 10.9 1.3 23.2

3.5 12.7 4.3 35.0

8.0 17.3 6.8 11.4

5.8 24.9 6.4 32.0

6.6 20.2 5.2 21.7

6.8 8.8 1.3 10.4

6.3 19.7 4.4 21.8

3.5 16.4 -12.1 32.7

3.4 13.4 -30.4 32.9

3.5 12.7 4.3 35.0

9.3 9.8 8.4 6.5 6.6 2.3 13.9 9.1 9.5 9.6 7.1 10.3 3.2 4.6 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 -0.2 5.8 14.9 12.3 35.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

5.2 10.5 5.6 21.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

892 300

1,242 282

723 211

574 186

516 165

406 150

325 138

300 128

514 123

362 115

399 103

329 89

302 76

257 66

197 58

182 51

232 39

234 32

177 23

113 18

110 14

109 11

54 8

46 6

282 84

128 83

222 80

215 71

192 62

149 55

143 50

136 45

378 176

880 168

324 107

246 97

214 89

149 84

128 80

118 77

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

140

ECUADOR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

8,703 7,354 7,199 155 360 989 9 2 7

12,107 10,029 9,865 164 265 1,814 1,522 10 1,512

13,994 12,508 12,068 440 173 1,312 13 8 4

13,717 12,772 11,337 1,435 148 797 3 1 2

14,481 12,907 11,251 1,656 190 1,384 2 1 2

16,452 13,829 11,244 2,586 308 2,314 1 0 0

16,864 14,702 11,372 3,331 390 1,772 1 0 0

16,868 15,062 10,629 4,433 290 1,516 1 0 0

54 33 22

1,096 6 1,090

10 8 1

6 0 6

6 0 6

6 0 6

5 0 5

5 0 5

742 656 86 271 271 0 201 -270 827 745 21 61 -626 1,098 1,016 21 61

638 606 32 610 495 115 0 -28 474 416 30 28 -474 1,084 911 145 28

1,049 1,049 0 750 721 29 -152 -451 665 574 10 81 -818 1,416 1,296 39 81

1,145 996 150 1,072 1,072 0 -181 -254 822 717 4 102 -1,003 1,894 1,789 4 102

1,401 1,353 48 1,074 1,074 0 915 587 982 879 7 95 -67 2,055 1,953 7 95

1,962 1,864 98 1,123 1,123 0 1,771 932 1,070 878 8 184 701 2,193 2,001 8 184

2,016 1,932 84 1,301 1,267 35 172 -543 1,116 901 6 209 -944 2,417 2,167 41 209

2,701 2,701 0 2,526 2,414 112 -81 -256 1,205 1,009 9 187 -1,286 3,731 3,423 121 187

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

472 385 62 0 25 34

290 110 126 0 53 65

864 328 452 13 71 110

712 -76 720 0 68 86

1,686 279 1,330 1 76 93

2,121 741 1,275 1 104 119

2,310 665 1,555 9 81 146

1,558 287 1,160 1 109 151

-399 745 126

-251 416 125

145 574 144

-284 717 280

475 879 333

941 878 302

1,043 901 367

189 1,009 359

19,689 7,106 1,421 8,025 1,074 -695

23,006 7,544 1,438 9,163 1,004 -1,399

25,736 8,645 1,546 9,349 1,165 -472

28,789 10,371 1,610 10,818 1,440 -157

203.8 73.5 28.9 13.8 5.0 7.4 1.6 9.6 13.4 25.1

218.1 71.5 29.1 14.2 4.6 6.1 1.3 14.1 12.0 21.8

195.1 65.5 28.0 12.9 4.3 6.9 1.5 10.5 12.7 22.9

162.6 58.6 36.0 11.6 4.2 8.5 1.6 9.0 12.4 22.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

10,781 3,331 3 3,335 854 76

9,145 3,337 51 3,754 1,009 -360

261.3 80.7 33.0 24.8 7.7 9.8 3.1 11.4 5.2 9.5

362.8 132.4 32.5 14.2 5.2 8.3 3.2 15.0 7.6 17.6

19,281 5,677 386 6,736 1,788 -1,000

14,530 7,374 1,322 6,488 1,179 921

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

246.5 72.6 24.9 11.7 3.5 12.8 3.2 9.4 12.9 21.7

141

186.0 94.4 25.7 11.2 5.7 8.6 2.2 5.8 14.8 26.0

ECUADOR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

7,354 7,199 1,801 823 283 978 172 5,398 0 4,887 155 0 155

10,029 9,865 4,065 2,127 451 1,938 468 5,800 0 4,884 164 0 164

12,508 12,068 5,302 3,041 647 2,261 1,159 6,766 5,999 394 440 10 430

12,772 11,337 6,196 3,568 613 2,628 1,417 5,141 3,950 1,045 1,435 0 1,435

12,907 11,251 6,148 3,642 595 2,506 1,339 5,103 3,950 1,035 1,656 0 1,656

13,829 11,244 6,209 3,579 577 2,630 1,391 5,035 3,950 979 2,586 0 2,586

14,702 11,372 6,484 3,858 666 2,626 1,482 4,888 3,950 834 3,331 0 3,331

15,062 10,629 6,244 3,764 663 2,480 1,426 4,384 3,950 339 4,433 0 4,433

269 35 7,199 155

816 32 9,865 164

1,082 26 12,068 440

840 21 11,337 1,435

889 20 11,251 1,656

829 19 11,244 2,586

888 17 11,372 3,331

835 16 10,629 4,433

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

656 653 258 170 60 88 13 395 0 235 3 0 3

606 575 329 227 24 101 31 246 0 39 30 0 30

1,049 839 751 610 62 142 128 88 0 61 210 10 200

996 615 544 444 9 100 99 71 0 71 381 0 381

1,353 630 534 444 9 89 82 97 0 97 723 0 723

1,864 430 367 231 5 137 40 63 0 54 1,434 0 1,434

1,932 642 581 559 85 22 18 61 0 45 1,289 0 1,289

2,701 310 279 277 20 2 2 31 0 22 2,391 0 2,391

40 0

47 0

319 0

69 0

124 0

25 0

152 0

29 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

271 233 75 57 3 18 0 159 2 76 38 0 38

495 470 276 164 8 112 2 194 0 27 25 0 25

721 711 486 235 23 252 46 225 10 59 10 0 10

1,072 555 376 300 22 76 55 179 0 146 517 0 517

1,074 574 440 324 24 116 78 134 0 107 499 0 499

1,123 616 485 363 27 122 77 131 0 109 508 0 508

1,267 728 520 378 30 142 84 208 0 190 539 0 539

2,414 1,124 590 402 31 188 95 534 0 517 1,289 0 1,289

25 1

41 1

98 1

89 1

75 1

85 1

92 1

82 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

745 712 120 50 4 71 5 592 0 554 33 0 33

416 404 212 140 8 72 8 191 0 132 12 0 12

574 573 330 172 13 157 47 243 147 50 1 0 1

717 544 290 253 11 36 28 255 140 102 172 0 172

879 701 337 221 11 116 44 364 258 96 178 0 178

878 682 313 200 12 114 38 369 285 77 196 0 196

901 634 263 174 12 89 37 371 312 54 266 0 266

1,009 663 276 166 16 110 41 387 339 43 346 0 346

22 0

62 0

69 0

74 0

63 0

54 0

41 0

31 0

142

ECUADOR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.1 1.1 0.4 56.9

.. 6.9 1.6 0.5 54.5

.. 5.0 0.7 0.0 70.5

.. 6.3 0.4 0.0 83.2

2.1 5.6 0.3 0.0 84.9

2.3 6.0 0.3 0.0 84.9

2.3 6.2 0.3 0.0 85.2

2.4 6.4 0.3 0.0 85.3

2,133 249 5,818 4,837 15 33 16 3,345 3,783 0 2,100 152 0 624 3 70 110 0 549 2 2,031 42 0 74 1 0 81 1,750 127 12 0 61 0 121 12 0 19 1,750 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 45 1,180 2,522 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 397 791 -1,067 -2,540 764 201 0 -152 -181 915 57 193 57 -173 -148 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

53 0 42 42 0 11 11 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,971 1,771 197

412 172 249

4 -81 91

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

6.9 13.8 3.5 14.2

6.4 17.4 4.2 24.1

6.4 15.8 5.5 21.9

7.0 16.6 5.0 17.8

5.6 10.7 2.7 17.6

4.7 13.1 3.1 24.8

1.6 21.4 5.3 57.2

5.0 12.5 3.2 24.4

8.1 18.8 4.9 12.1

5.2 22.2 6.0 35.1

5.9 17.0 6.3 25.7

6.9 17.1 5.2 18.3

6.0 11.8 3.5 18.3

4.8 13.1 3.1 24.4

1.4 22.1 5.4 59.6

5.1 12.9 3.6 25.2

5.6 8.6 8.1 7.5 5.1 3.9 8.5 8.7 11.2 9.9 8.7 13.3 1.9 1.0 2.7 2.5 1.4 5.0 16.4 4.0 8.0 10.0 16.4 33.5 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.0 16.6 4.6 42.6

4.7 10.0 0.6 19.7

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,789 899

1,491 796

1,126 714

1,095 731

844 638

643 587

664 556

1,845 523

644 280

619 256

582 230

521 205

492 182

450 160

448 140

426 119

203 105

200 96

178 86

158 78

164 71

130 65

141 59

154 53

441 174

419 160

405 144

363 127

328 110

321 95

307 80

271 66

1,145 619

872 540

544 484

574 526

351 456

193 427

217 417

1,420 403

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed and short term debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

143

EGYPT, ARAB REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

36,137 29,757 29,007 750 184 6,197 1,231 1,205 26

33,017 28,439 27,439 1,000 125 4,453 1,441 872 569

33,499 31,023 30,710 313 103 2,372 4 2 2

29,187 25,083 24,510 573 0 4,104 0 0 0

29,333 25,960 25,342 619 0 3,372 0 0 0

30,001 26,533 25,875 659 0 3,468 0 0 0

31,383 27,581 27,266 316 0 3,801 0 0 0

30,292 27,353 27,353 0 0 2,939 0 0 0

3,348 3,327 21

3,542 1,775 1,767

148 128 20

141 140 1

129 129 0

129 129 0

130 130 0

134 134 0

3,602 3,602 0 1,438 1,395 43 2,351 187 1,376 906 4 467 974 2,815 2,301 47 467

1,951 1,951 0 1,751 1,704 47 -1,301 -1,502 1,323 1,007 14 301 -2,624 3,073 2,711 61 301

642 642 0 988 894 94 92 438 1,393 1,252 9 132 -1,301 2,381 2,146 104 132

586 586 0 1,100 1,100 0 -702 -189 733 619 0 113 -1,435 1,832 1,719 0 113

1,915 1,915 0 1,111 1,111 0 73 -732 838 688 0 150 -765 1,949 1,799 0 150

498 498 0 1,248 1,248 0 -653 96 825 729 0 97 -1,479 2,073 1,976 0 97

576 576 0 1,980 1,980 0 -1,071 333 783 638 0 145 -1,854 2,763 2,618 0 145

465 465 0 1,561 1,561 0 -1,960 -863 756 621 0 135 -2,715 2,317 2,182 0 135

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

4,119 2,207 1,178 0 734 591

5,183 248 734 0 4,201 812

1,353 -252 598 0 1,006 744

1,955 -513 1,235 269 964 472

2,008 804 510 39 654 733

334 -749 647 -217 653 783

-579 -1,405 237 37 552 557

1,571 -1,097 1,253 26 1,389 201

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

3,199 906 14

4,162 1,007 14

-127 1,252 228

1,244 619 92

1,291 688 28

-484 729 89

-1,264 638 47

894 621 56

98,809 20,447 2,911 21,881 13,598 -388

87,947 20,029 2,893 20,474 14,076 622

82,814 23,600 2,961 20,494 14,604 3,743

78,589 30,429 3,341 27,733 15,339 3,922

143.5 29.7 9.5 4.1 0.8 46.4 7.5 11.5 68.5 12.6

149.8 34.1 10.3 4.1 0.9 46.9 8.3 11.6 70.6 12.9

133.0 37.9 11.7 3.3 0.9 46.5 8.6 12.1 71.9 13.1

99.5 38.5 7.6 2.5 1.0 50.6 6.6 9.7 74.6 13.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

31,406 10,489 3,212 13,451 1,587 -1,816

42,025 15,035 4,284 15,969 3,620 2,327

344.5 115.1 26.8 13.1 4.4 4.4 1.4 17.1 30.9 10.8

219.6 78.6 20.4 8.8 3.1 11.0 2.7 13.5 37.9 10.4

60,300 18,064 3,226 19,123 17,122 -254

103,159 21,587 2,852 23,878 13,785 -971

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

185.4 55.6 13.2 7.7 2.3 51.1 10.7 7.1 60.9 12.1

144

135.2 28.3 8.5 3.4 0.7 47.2 6.9 14.1 72.7 13.5

EGYPT, ARAB REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

29,757 29,007 23,990 3,895 2,440 20,095 8,736 5,017 59 243 750 0 750

28,439 27,439 21,190 3,427 1,297 17,763 11,224 6,249 0 624 1,000 0 1,000

31,023 30,710 28,957 4,045 1,651 24,912 18,764 1,753 0 516 313 0 313

25,083 24,510 23,970 3,942 2,264 20,028 18,940 540 0 312 573 100 473

25,960 25,342 23,355 3,696 2,218 19,659 17,876 1,987 1,500 326 619 100 519

26,533 25,875 24,658 3,876 2,316 20,782 18,858 1,217 746 334 659 100 559

27,581 27,266 26,372 4,114 2,390 22,258 20,159 894 695 64 316 100 216

27,353 27,353 26,367 4,002 2,389 22,365 20,220 986 695 159 0 0 0

1,048 802 28,993 764

1,480 921 27,418 1,021

1,320 1,035 30,708 316

639 1,266 24,508 574

550 1,242 25,341 620

542 1,316 25,874 660

539 1,386 27,265 317

503 1,465 27,351 1

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,602 3,277 2,005 294 56 1,711 483 1,272 50 1 325 0 325

1,951 1,900 1,198 269 56 929 647 703 0 170 51 0 51

642 642 602 392 164 209 195 40 0 31 0 0 0

586 379 235 174 104 61 50 144 0 132 207 0 207

1,915 1,754 194 169 66 25 20 1,560 1,500 60 162 0 162

498 323 278 262 82 16 12 46 0 46 175 0 175

576 576 556 534 62 22 16 20 0 20 0 0 0

465 465 329 310 120 20 15 135 0 134 0 0 0

217 52

92 8

42 83

6 49

17 32

25 54

29 33

26 75

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,395 1,253 371 89 9 282 127 882 40 13 142 0 142

1,704 1,572 884 282 55 603 214 687 1 34 132 0 132

894 832 542 310 30 232 121 290 0 73 62 0 62

1,100 984 863 299 82 564 497 121 0 57 116 0 116

1,111 995 904 295 87 609 539 91 0 44 116 0 116

1,248 1,112 1,029 345 93 685 603 83 0 43 136 0 136

1,980 1,637 1,326 544 98 782 689 312 0 293 343 0 343

1,561 1,246 1,198 328 98 870 766 48 0 38 316 100 216

68 2

176 7

198 14

87 23

72 29

72 34

77 37

77 38

906 846 556 99 10 458 138 289 3 22 60 0 60

1,007 918 719 184 14 535 196 199 0 45 89 0 89

1,252 1,228 1,121 232 23 889 547 106 0 40 24 0 24

619 603 573 147 34 425 338 31 0 16 16 12 4

688 671 575 137 34 437 325 96 63 23 17 12 5

729 713 567 127 34 440 298 146 127 13 16 12 4

638 623 548 104 33 444 301 75 65 6 15 12 3

621 607 540 98 34 442 302 67 61 2 14 12 2

78 6

138 7

114 7

41 9

34 9

28 10

24 10

22 12

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

145

EGYPT, ARAB REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.8 1.5 1.4 72.8

.. 8.2 2.5 3.0 41.8

.. 13.1 1.4 2.7 34.5

.. 13.7 1.2 2.1 40.1

29.0 11.3 2.0 1.9 43.7

32.6 11.9 2.1 2.1 39.3

36.1 12.3 2.1 2.2 35.1

37.6 12.4 2.3 2.3 33.4

0 0 309 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 260 13 3 0 0 50 2 2 0 0 210 11 1 0 0 49 1 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 39 1 0 0 10,576 35 25 0 0 2,481 7 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 3,935 -12,667 976 -1,858 146 2,351 -1,301 92 -702 73 1,252 1,460 795 -899 -943 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

669 -653 2,197

1,381 -1,071 2,494

-1,091 -1,960 1,087

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.9 13.1 3.7 12.5

5.3 25.5 6.9 36.0

3.1 21.8 6.6 47.9

5.3 16.4 4.7 27.9

8.4 8.5 8.4 8.1

2.2 10.1 3.1 31.7

2.7 12.2 3.9 37.7

2.0 16.1 4.9 46.8

7.1 18.7 4.6 22.4

4.7 28.2 7.6 41.8

3.1 22.0 6.6 48.2

4.7 21.8 5.5 36.0

0.8 49.8 10.3 83.2

2.2 10.1 3.1 31.7

2.7 12.2 3.9 37.7

1.7 17.9 5.2 51.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.2 2.9 2.8 13.3

8.6 8.4 6.5 6.8 8.5 8.4 11.5 4.3 3.0 8.4 2.8 3.4 2.4 2.9 8.4 4.0 6.9 7.7 7.8 7.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,927 735

1,911 699

2,143 665

2,139 615

2,192 565

2,250 515

2,926 438

2,292 359

1,877 659

1,895 625

2,015 595

2,130 549

2,184 500

2,242 450

2,223 404

2,284 356

1,488 556

1,601 530

1,608 498

1,714 464

1,758 426

1,838 388

1,919 348

2,007 306

389 104

294 95

407 97

416 86

426 73

404 62

304 55

277 49

50 75

17 74

129 70

9 66

8 65

8 65

703 34

8 3

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Data on private nonguaranteed debt are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

146

EL SALVADOR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,851 1,656 1,552 104 111 84 2 1 2

2,149 1,938 1,913 26 0 210 7 7 0

2,610 2,084 2,080 5 0 525 3 2 1

4,528 2,883 2,772 111 0 1,645 0 0 0

5,313 3,406 3,250 156 0 1,907 0 0 0

6,002 4,838 4,712 126 0 1,164 0 0 0

7,079 5,320 5,213 108 0 1,759 0 0 0

7,250 5,470 5,384 86 0 1,780 0 0 0

0 0 0

6 6 0

6 1 5

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

199 199 0 164 137 27 5 -29 95 81 7 6 -89 259 218 34 6

108 108 0 124 119 5 2 18 84 75 0 9 -83 208 194 5 9

195 195 0 160 160 0 372 337 124 102 0 22 249 284 262 0 22

362 362 0 153 153 0 801 592 221 147 0 73 580 374 300 0 73

730 730 0 168 168 0 824 262 216 160 0 55 608 384 329 0 55

1,565 1,565 0 190 190 0 633 -743 264 221 0 43 369 453 410 0 43

615 615 0 221 221 0 989 595 326 293 0 32 664 547 514 0 32

399 399 0 279 279 0 140 21 337 302 0 36 -197 617 581 0 36

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

277 61 12 0 203 35

151 -11 2 0 160 127

175 35 38 0 102 130

454 209 173 0 72 85

994 562 279 2 150 90

1,950 1,376 470 -2 107 107

669 394 172 0 103 123

698 119 466 0 113 138

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

162 81 34

44 75 31

73 102 0

247 147 60

760 160 73

1,640 221 89

291 293 85

315 302 82

13,547 5,675 1,926 6,213 1,723 -150

13,989 5,897 1,954 6,390 1,634 -405

14,518 6,252 2,122 7,025 1,988 -764

15,364 6,993 2,564 7,633 1,938 -612

93.6 39.2 6.8 3.8 1.6 32.4 3.3 35.9 20.3 37.3

101.8 42.9 7.7 4.5 1.9 27.2 3.1 19.4 17.9 36.6

113.2 48.8 8.7 5.2 2.2 28.1 3.4 24.8 15.8 32.9

103.7 47.2 8.8 4.8 2.2 26.7 3.0 24.5 15.0 30.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

3,684 1,078 157 1,324 333 -29

4,699 1,360 366 1,785 595 -152

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

171.8 50.2 24.0 8.8 2.6 18.0 3.0 4.5 42.8 33.2

158.0 45.7 15.3 6.2 1.8 27.7 4.0 9.8 56.3 36.6

9,404 3,154 1,064 3,744 940 -262

12,881 5,554 1,765 6,031 1,901 -431

4. DEBT INDICATORS 82.7 27.8 9.0 3.9 1.3 36.0 3.0 20.1 42.6 52.8

147

81.5 35.2 6.7 4.0 1.7 42.0 3.8 36.3 24.8 41.2

EL SALVADOR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,656 1,552 1,374 614 308 760 485 178 19 121 104 0 104

1,938 1,913 1,729 786 414 943 795 184 0 127 26 0 26

2,084 2,080 1,971 1,377 623 594 490 109 0 74 5 0 5

2,883 2,772 2,437 1,864 608 574 515 335 202 102 111 0 111

3,406 3,250 2,556 1,983 583 572 497 694 558 109 156 0 156

4,838 4,712 2,772 2,198 564 574 513 1,941 1,809 99 126 0 126

5,320 5,213 2,931 2,327 563 604 557 2,281 2,158 86 108 0 108

5,470 5,384 2,820 2,241 542 579 546 2,564 2,451 73 86 0 86

119 26 1,543 113

140 23 1,905 34

307 20 2,073 11

309 16 2,767 116

334 15 3,245 161

371 14 4,708 130

372 14 5,208 112

348 13 5,379 91

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

199 199 184 76 23 108 81 15 1 9 0 0 0

108 108 77 44 33 33 18 30 0 25 0 0 0

195 195 190 166 32 25 24 5 0 5 0 0 0

362 312 171 151 4 21 21 140 52 87 50 0 50

730 670 300 246 2 54 26 370 356 15 60 0 60

1,565 1,565 311 299 2 12 11 1,254 1,252 3 0 0 0

615 608 260 219 1 41 41 349 349 0 7 0 7

399 399 104 102 1 2 2 295 294 1 0 0 0

14 0

2 0

26 0

34 0

49 0

63 0

38 0

16 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

137 127 71 20 3 51 4 56 10 44 10 0 10

119 105 94 57 11 37 8 11 0 9 14 0 14

160 157 124 78 13 45 19 33 0 25 3 0 3

153 120 116 85 22 31 19 4 0 4 33 0 33

168 153 144 111 24 33 22 9 0 9 15 0 15

190 160 147 109 25 38 23 13 0 12 30 0 30

221 196 182 137 28 45 31 14 0 13 25 0 25

279 258 243 205 30 38 24 15 0 14 21 0 21

8 0

15 1

21 1

17 1

24 1

27 1

37 1

41 1

81 73 57 30 4 27 7 16 3 11 8 0 8

75 72 62 50 8 13 9 9 0 8 3 0 3

102 101 92 62 11 30 16 9 0 7 0 0 0

147 141 123 102 11 21 15 18 17 1 7 0 7

160 154 125 106 11 19 14 29 19 9 6 0 6

221 212 112 94 11 19 14 100 91 9 8 0 8

293 286 122 104 12 18 14 164 156 8 7 0 7

302 296 109 91 12 18 15 188 180 7 5 0 5

8 0

14 0

22 0

24 0

24 0

19 0

17 0

12 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

148

EL SALVADOR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.8 0.0 0.0 59.5

.. 1.3 0.0 0.0 56.5

.. 1.7 0.0 0.0 50.7

.. 5.3 0.0 0.0 71.1

2.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 76.5

2.2 3.4 0.0 0.0 83.3

2.4 3.5 0.0 0.0 84.2

2.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 84.9

60 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 42 0 0 0 0 39 0 0 0 60 3 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 20 67 400 735 785 5 2 372 801 824 23 7 49 -41 -39 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

689 633 52

1,077 989 65

171 140 24

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.8 26.8 6.5 38.2

4.6 29.8 7.2 45.5

6.5 22.6 5.2 22.6

8.2 15.2 3.8 10.4

7.9 15.7 6.1 12.0

7.5 20.6 17.8 17.2

6.7 20.1 14.5 23.2

7.3 28.5 27.9 23.5

4.8 27.1 6.6 38.7

3.2 35.6 8.8 56.6

6.5 21.9 5.1 22.6

7.1 19.9 4.5 18.0

7.3 22.0 2.0 16.6

5.3 17.3 4.7 29.0

4.9 20.5 5.8 32.5

1.7 14.4 4.9 48.6

7.3 10.4 6.4 9.7 8.5 8.1 12.2 5.0 29.0 8.8 9.9 21.4 0.9 0.5 6.7 3.0 9.8 21.4 10.4 -1.4 22.1 0.2 7.9 14.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

7.8 19.8 19.8 17.5

7.6 29.3 29.3 21.9

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

272 340

411 333

307 308

258 296

252 286

248 275

883 265

213 200

239 126

223 122

230 116

235 108

230 100

227 91

218 81

211 72

40 19

37 17

31 16

36 15

38 14

38 13

36 12

35 11

199 107

186 104

199 100

200 93

193 85

190 77

182 69

176 61

33 214

188 212

77 192

22 188

22 186

21 185

665 183

2 128

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

149

EQUATORIAL GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

132.3 112.9 112.9 0.0 12.8 6.6 0.6 0.3 0.3

241.1 209.2 209.2 0.0 5.8 26.0 19.7 17.3 2.3

291.8 229.6 229.6 0.0 18.9 43.4 41.4 35.9 5.4

247.8 198.9 198.9 0.0 4.9 44.0 36.0 32.0 4.0

238.9 192.1 192.1 0.0 2.2 44.6 35.5 31.6 3.9

260.4 209.1 209.1 0.0 1.1 50.1 39.5 35.0 4.4

319.3 227.7 227.7 0.0 0.3 91.3 44.3 39.1 5.2

290.9 244.4 244.4 0.0 0.0 46.6 46.6 41.0 5.6

4.1 1.6 2.4

28.4 24.4 4.0

94.5 77.8 16.7

94.7 82.4 12.3

96.2 84.2 12.1

106.9 93.2 13.7

117.4 101.3 16.1

122.2 105.0 17.3

14.7 9.2 5.5 8.2 1.2 7.0 -5.5 -12.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 -7.5 10.2 1.7 7.5 1.0

9.9 9.9 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.6 9.7 4.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 8.8 5.1 1.1 3.8 0.2

2.2 2.2 0.0 1.3 0.2 1.1 -8.1 -9.0 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 -8.9 2.1 0.6 1.2 0.3

1.7 1.7 0.0 4.1 1.4 2.7 -12.3 -10.0 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.4 -13.5 5.3 2.2 2.7 0.4

0.3 0.3 0.0 3.6 1.0 2.6 -2.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 -3.2 4.6 1.6 2.6 0.4

2.0 2.0 0.0 2.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.4 -0.1 3.6 2.0 1.2 0.4

1.1 1.1 0.0 4.7 3.8 0.9 32.7 36.3 2.6 1.0 0.0 1.6 30.1 7.3 4.8 0.9 1.6

0.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 3.7 0.3 -50.5 -47.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -51.5 4.9 4.7 0.3 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

17.6 8.0 2.4 0.0 7.2 6.1

63.8 9.4 11.0 0.0 43.5 12.9

144.0 2.0 127.0 0.0 15.0 17.2

126.0 0.3 107.8 0.0 17.9 7.9

959.7 -0.7 945.0 0.0 15.4 4.9

336.5 0.7 323.4 0.0 12.5 9.8

1,439.5 -2.7 1,430.7 0.0 11.6 12.6

1,697.9 -3.2 1,664.1 0.0 37.0 13.6

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

17.1 0.5 0.0

63.3 0.5 0.0

143.7 0.4 0.0

125.2 0.8 0.0

959.1 0.6 0.0

335.8 0.7 0.0

1,438.5 1.0 0.0

1,696.9 1.0 0.0

448.0 .. 0.0 .. 23.0 ..

454.3 .. 0.0 .. 70.9 ..

.. .. 0.0 .. 88.5 ..

.. .. 0.0 .. 237.7 ..

.. .. 0.0 .. 945.0 ..

.. 55.3 .. .. 0.3 9.3 .. 17.8 55.3 37.8

.. 52.6 .. .. 0.2 29.7 .. 18.7 55.3 37.3

.. .. .. .. .. 34.0 .. 19.2 55.0 37.5

.. .. .. .. .. 74.4 .. 28.6 48.2 33.4

.. .. .. .. .. 324.8 .. 16.0 54.0 41.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

75.3 .. 0.0 .. 3.5 ..

123.5 42.3 0.0 99.2 0.7 -19.0

.. 175.7 .. .. 2.6 2.6 .. 5.0 33.8 10.8

569.6 195.2 12.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 10.8 49.0 27.9

153.1 94.2 0.0 221.1 0.0 -123.4

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

309.8 190.7 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.9 50.7 34.7

150

EQUATORIAL GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

112.9 112.9 96.7 14.3 8.4 82.3 36.2 16.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

209.2 209.2 191.5 67.4 51.6 124.1 66.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

229.6 229.6 212.8 101.4 88.2 111.5 59.8 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

198.9 198.9 186.5 93.6 85.8 92.9 51.2 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

192.1 192.1 180.0 89.1 81.8 90.9 50.3 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

209.1 209.1 195.5 97.6 89.7 97.9 53.4 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

227.7 227.7 211.6 106.7 98.1 104.9 55.6 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

244.4 244.4 227.1 119.8 101.2 107.3 55.8 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 3.3 112.9 0.0

0.0 37.6 209.2 0.0

0.0 53.1 229.6 0.0

0.0 47.3 198.9 0.0

0.0 45.0 192.1 0.0

0.0 47.9 209.1 0.0

0.0 51.7 227.7 0.0

0.0 53.3 244.4 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

9.2 9.2 8.6 5.2 4.4 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 9.9 9.9 3.7 3.1 6.3 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 2.7

0.0 2.0

0.0 2.2

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.8 3.8 3.8 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.7 3.7 3.7 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.8

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

151

EQUATORIAL GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.1

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.8

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.7

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9

26.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.2

28.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.0

31.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.1

30.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

42.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 15.8 12.0 4.3 -23.3 -8.9 -5.5 9.7 -8.1 -12.3 -2.2 3.4 15.4 6.7 -7.9 -5.6 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

21.5 1.1 13.2

58.9 32.7 18.2

-28.4 -50.5 18.0

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.6 41.5 9.0 71.5

0.9 38.2 10.1 77.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 41.5 9.0 71.5

0.9 38.2 10.1 77.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3.8 0.9

3.9 0.9

4.2 0.9

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.7

4.0 0.7

4.0 0.7

3.8 0.9

3.9 0.9

4.2 0.9

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.7

4.0 0.7

4.0 0.7

0.9 0.2

0.9 0.2

0.9 0.1

0.8 0.1

0.8 0.1

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.1

2.8 0.8

3.0 0.7

3.3 0.7

3.6 0.7

3.7 0.7

3.7 0.6

3.3 0.6

3.3 0.6

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are estimates based on the original terms of the loans. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

152

ERITREA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

36.7 36.7 36.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

311.1 298.0 298.0 0.0 0.0 13.1 2.0 2.0 0.0

413.9 394.8 394.8 0.0 0.0 19.1 0.9 0.9 0.0

520.3 489.2 489.2 0.0 0.0 31.1 0.9 0.9 0.0

634.6 605.1 605.1 0.0 0.0 29.4 2.4 2.4 0.0

680.6 666.4 666.4 0.0 0.0 14.2 1.7 1.7 0.0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 4.9 0.0

3.2 3.2 0.0

7.0 7.0 0.0

13.8 13.8 0.0

28.0 28.0 0.0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

7.2 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0

50.7 50.7 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 61.2 11.0 2.8 2.5 0.0 0.3 58.4 3.3 3.0 0.0 0.3

103.9 103.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 110.3 7.0 6.1 5.4 0.0 0.7 104.2 6.8 6.1 0.0 0.7

75.9 75.9 0.0 2.6 2.6 0.0 85.4 12.0 6.7 6.3 0.0 0.4 78.6 9.4 8.9 0.0 0.4

89.4 89.4 0.0 5.8 5.8 0.0 80.4 -3.2 6.0 5.0 0.0 0.9 74.4 11.8 10.9 0.0 0.9

58.4 58.4 0.0 10.4 10.4 0.0 33.6 -14.5 9.0 8.6 0.0 0.5 24.6 19.4 18.9 0.0 0.5

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

110.4 7.2 0.0 0.0 103.2 42.7

182.6 50.2 28.0 0.0 104.3 22.3

262.7 103.3 12.1 0.0 147.3 31.9

215.4 73.3 20.0 0.0 122.1 32.4

310.6 83.6 22.0 0.0 205.0 41.3

265.4 48.1 30.0 0.0 187.3 32.0

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

110.3 0.2 0.0

175.7 2.5 4.4

257.3 5.4 0.0

209.1 6.3 0.0

305.6 5.0 0.0

256.9 8.6 0.0

669.0 137.7 0.0 496.7 50.5 -36.2

624.7 129.0 0.0 493.8 30.3 -42.6

745.5 83.6 0.0 562.5 24.7 -128.4

910.2 .. 0.0 .. 34.7 ..

300.5 61.9 4.9 4.4 0.9 12.2 1.2 4.6 91.6 56.9

403.5 83.3 7.3 5.2 1.1 5.8 0.7 6.0 90.9 60.1

758.9 85.1 14.1 7.1 0.8 3.9 0.5 4.6 92.7 65.1

.. 74.8 .. .. 1.0 5.1 .. 2.1 95.4 70.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

585.6 .. 0.0 .. 40.5 -31.6

634.1 106.9 3.0 510.3 36.1 -104.7

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. 6.3 .. .. 0.0 110.4 .. 0.0 100.0 66.3

153

291.1 49.1 3.1 2.6 0.4 11.6 0.8 4.2 90.5 48.8

ERITREA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

36.7 36.7 36.7 24.3 24.3 12.4 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

298.0 298.0 298.0 151.9 144.9 146.1 136.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

394.8 394.8 394.8 235.5 229.4 159.4 149.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

489.2 489.2 489.2 312.6 305.9 176.6 166.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

605.1 605.1 605.1 413.1 405.7 192.0 182.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

666.4 666.4 666.4 482.1 474.8 184.4 174.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 24.3 36.7 0.0

0.0 84.5 298.0 0.0

0.0 158.3 394.8 0.0

0.0 218.6 489.2 0.0

0.0 301.4 605.1 0.0

0.0 352.0 666.4 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

7.2 7.2 7.2 5.4 5.4 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

50.7 50.7 50.7 39.2 38.1 11.5 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

103.9 103.9 103.9 90.3 90.3 13.7 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

75.9 75.9 75.9 59.3 59.3 16.7 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

89.4 89.4 89.4 72.2 72.2 17.2 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

58.4 58.4 58.4 56.9 56.9 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. ..

.. ..

0.0 5.4

0.0 31.6

0.0 78.2

0.0 46.2

0.0 58.7

0.0 35.6

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.6 2.6 2.6 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.8 5.8 5.8 2.7 2.1 3.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.4 10.4 10.4 4.1 3.4 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. ..

.. ..

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.5

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.4 5.4 5.4 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.3 6.3 6.3 3.7 3.6 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.0 5.0 5.0 3.4 3.2 1.7 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.6 8.6 8.6 5.4 5.2 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. ..

.. ..

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.8

0.0 1.3

0.0 1.8

0.0 3.3

154

ERITREA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.3

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 57.0

1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.4

1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.4

1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.5

1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.5

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 7.6 58.4 102.8 .. .. 7.2 61.2 110.3 .. .. 0.4 -4.2 -5.6 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

106.4 85.4 17.3

114.2 80.4 30.2

46.0 33.6 15.1

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

2.0 23.9 5.6 56.6

0.7 39.7 10.4 80.8

1.2 34.6 9.2 69.8

0.9 37.5 9.4 77.1

0.8 40.0 10.5 80.9

0.8 36.3 8.8 76.2

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

2.0 23.9 5.6 56.6

0.7 39.7 10.4 80.8

1.2 34.6 9.2 69.8

0.9 37.5 9.4 77.1

0.8 40.0 10.5 80.9

0.8 36.3 8.8 76.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

14.7 7.1

15.4 7.4

17.0 7.4

18.2 7.3

19.1 7.1

20.9 6.9

24.2 6.7

24.8 6.3

14.7 7.1

15.4 7.4

17.0 7.4

18.2 7.3

19.1 7.1

20.9 6.9

24.2 6.7

24.8 6.3

9.0 2.6

9.4 2.6

10.4 2.5

10.1 2.3

10.3 2.2

11.6 2.0

11.8 1.8

11.6 1.7

5.7 4.5

6.0 4.8

6.5 4.9

8.1 4.9

8.8 5.0

9.2 4.9

12.4 4.8

13.2 4.7

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

155

ESTONIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

286 165 159 6 92 30 0 0 0

2,569 1,606 210 1,395 19 944 0 0 0

2,852 1,810 187 1,623 13 1,029 0 0 0

4,741 3,151 482 2,669 0 1,590 0 0 0

6,972 4,530 560 3,970 0 2,442 0 0 0

10,008 7,009 562 6,447 0 2,999 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

81 49 32 7 5 1 96 22 14 9 5 1 82 21 14 6 1

324 324 0 305 300 5 110 91 123 77 1 45 -13 428 377 6 45

284 284 0 247 242 5 122 85 136 93 1 42 -14 383 335 6 42

1,811 1,811 0 586 572 14 1,785 561 197 157 0 40 1,589 783 729 14 40

2,116 2,116 0 940 940 0 1,738 563 280 205 0 75 1,458 1,220 1,145 0 75

3,536 3,536 0 1,115 1,115 0 2,978 557 335 245 0 90 2,643 1,451 1,361 0 90

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

275 44 201 10 20 37

433 24 387 -29 50 12

661 42 542 32 45 10

1,626 1,238 285 53 49 9

2,278 1,176 919 111 73 12

3,767 2,421 1,049 176 120 17

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

240 9 26

151 77 205

257 93 311

1,072 157 397

1,445 205 629

2,582 245 939

5,268 4,928 3 5,338 923 -294

5,694 5,184 9 5,671 822 -339

6,716 5,453 17 6,278 1,003 -717

8,656 7,099 49 8,329 1,377 -1,116

10,525 9,240 164 10,825 1,792 -1,432

52.1 48.8 8.7 2.5 2.3 35.9 2.1 36.8 0.0 4.1

55.0 50.1 7.4 2.6 2.4 28.8 1.7 36.1 0.0 3.2

86.9 70.6 14.4 3.6 2.9 21.2 1.9 33.5 0.0 1.4

98.2 80.6 17.2 3.9 3.2 19.7 2.0 35.0 0.0 1.2

108.3 95.1 15.7 3.6 3.2 17.9 2.0 30.0 0.0 0.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

4,333 2,637 1 2,921 583 -158

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

10.9 6.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 203.5 2.4 10.4 0.0 37.7

156

ESTONIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

165 159 141 108 0 33 28 19 0 2 6 0 6

1,606 210 141 105 0 36 26 69 31 36 1,395 232 1,164

1,810 187 128 91 0 37 23 59 29 28 1,623 291 1,332

3,151 482 87 66 0 21 0 395 350 28 2,669 245 2,424

4,530 560 108 84 0 24 0 452 402 26 3,970 413 3,557

7,009 562 111 83 0 28 0 451 409 16 6,447 1,303 5,144

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

50 0 159 6

71 0 174 1,432

65 0 160 1,650

39 0 459 2,692

49 0 544 3,986

49 0 556 6,453

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

49 49 45 39 0 6 5 4 0 2 0 0 0

324 45 9 4 0 4 0 36 0 36 280 139 141

284 13 11 7 0 4 0 2 0 2 271 62 209

1,811 316 14 8 0 6 0 302 283 3 1,495 0 1,495

2,116 17 11 10 0 1 0 6 0 2 2,099 339 1,760

3,536 3 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3,534 912 2,621

.. ..

.. ..

18 0

4 0

6 0

5 0

6 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 3

300 27 25 22 0 3 2 1 0 0 273 28 245

242 28 19 16 0 3 2 9 0 8 214 0 214

572 81 71 47 0 25 24 9 0 8 492 65 427

940 34 7 6 0 1 0 27 17 10 906 249 657

1,115 42 8 8 0 1 0 33 22 11 1,073 33 1,040

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

14 0

9 0

40 0

4 0

4 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

9 8 7 6 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1

77 11 8 7 0 1 1 3 2 0 66 9 57

93 11 8 6 0 1 1 4 2 2 82 17 65

157 16 7 6 0 2 1 9 8 1 140 15 125

205 26 4 3 0 1 0 22 20 1 179 19 160

245 27 4 3 0 1 0 23 22 1 218 13 206

.. ..

.. ..

3 0

5 0

4 0

4 0

2 0

2 0

157

ESTONIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.3

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8

80.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2

96.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3

95.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2

95.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4

.. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 100 78 283 .. .. 96 110 122 .. .. 5 -8 -7 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,889 1,785 29

2,232 1,738 94

3,036 2,978 36

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

7.1 15.0 5.5 16.4

5.3 10.7 2.9 17.2

4.8 15.3 4.8 30.3

5.7 6.3 6.3 19.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

7.1 15.0 5.5 16.4

6.5 16.4 5.7 21.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 4.3 4.8 5.7 .. .. 0.0 6.0 15.3 6.3 .. .. 0.0 0.6 4.8 6.3 .. .. 0.0 13.9 30.3 19.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,411 199

1,657 155

905 120

618 94

1,673 78

394 26

318 16

30 3

11 4

13 4

17 4

17 3

16 2

11 2

9 1

9 1

1 1

1 1

4 1

4 1

3 1

3 0

3 0

3 0

11 3

12 3

13 3

13 2

13 2

8 1

6 1

6 1

1,400 195

1,644 151

888 117

601 91

1,657 76

382 24

308 14

20 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed and short-term debt data have been revised starting from 1996 based on official government statistics.

158

ETHIOPIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

5,206 5,057 5,057 0 71 77 0 0 0

8,630 8,479 8,479 0 6 145 43 39 3

10,308 9,774 9,774 0 73 460 437 418 19

5,483 5,327 5,327 0 77 79 65 60 5

5,727 5,561 5,561 0 106 60 48 43 5

6,526 6,319 6,319 0 143 64 46 41 5

7,187 6,943 6,943 0 157 87 45 40 5

6,574 6,351 6,351 0 183 39 39 38 1

1 0 1

236 197 40

3,628 3,457 172

651 612 39

597 555 41

587 554 33

586 551 34

566 550 15

660 660 0 110 74 36 560 10 49 37 6 6 511 159 111 42 6

374 374 0 177 152 25 203 7 59 48 2 8 145 236 201 27 8

232 232 0 91 91 0 133 -8 63 61 0 1 70 154 152 0 1

185 185 0 84 71 13 90 -11 53 52 0 1 37 137 123 13 1

576 532 44 120 108 12 454 -2 63 61 0 1 392 182 169 12 1

672 627 44 48 37 11 629 6 37 36 1 1 593 85 73 12 1

252 237 15 47 38 8 229 24 45 43 1 1 184 92 82 9 1

401 370 31 50 41 9 309 -42 47 46 1 1 262 97 87 10 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

1,101 586 0 0 515 104

838 222 12 0 604 250

630 141 14 0 476 164

674 114 135 0 425 127

1,186 424 349 0 413 141

1,351 590 255 0 505 175

1,846 199 465 0 1,183 171

2,297 329 545 0 1,422 180

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,064 37 0

789 48 0

569 61 0

613 52 9

1,113 61 12

1,304 36 11

1,786 43 17

2,223 46 28

6,468 1,062 53 1,673 363 10

6,465 1,013 18 2,199 490 -401

5,987 1,113 33 2,072 966 -170

6,424 1,323 47 2,647 956 -172

7,940 1,849 133 3,838 1,497 -751

516.5 84.8 12.9 5.0 0.8 6.6 2.6 1.4 87.7 50.0

565.2 88.6 18.0 6.2 1.0 8.6 2.7 1.0 88.3 54.1

586.4 109.0 7.6 3.3 0.6 14.8 5.6 1.0 89.2 59.3

543.1 111.9 7.0 3.4 0.7 13.3 4.3 1.2 88.3 61.1

355.5 82.8 5.3 2.6 0.6 22.8 4.7 0.6 86.5 73.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

6,670 646 14 1,151 216 106

8,541 606 5 1,349 55 -294

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

805.3 78.0 24.6 7.6 0.7 4.2 2.3 1.5 85.8 11.8

1,424.6 101.0 39.0 9.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.7 87.3 14.7

5,716 836 27 1,533 815 39

4. DEBT INDICATORS 1,233.1 180.3 18.4 7.5 1.1 7.9 6.4 4.5 84.6 22.7

159

ETHIOPIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

5,057 5,057 4,622 613 549 4,009 3,918 435 0 98 0 0 0

8,479 8,479 7,906 1,268 1,151 6,637 6,382 573 0 116 0 0 0

9,774 9,774 9,183 2,339 2,157 6,844 6,559 590 0 253 0 0 0

5,327 5,327 5,214 2,741 2,547 2,473 2,265 113 0 12 0 0 0

5,561 5,561 5,466 3,099 2,925 2,367 2,131 96 0 7 0 0 0

6,319 6,319 6,225 3,868 3,675 2,357 2,148 94 0 3 0 0 0

6,943 6,943 6,871 4,392 4,196 2,479 2,151 72 0 1 0 0 0

6,351 6,351 6,099 4,817 4,617 1,282 1,068 253 0 210 0 0 0

49 436 5,052 6

27 824 8,477 1

0 1,470 9,774 0

0 1,779 5,327 0

0 2,150 5,561 0

0 2,756 6,319 0

0 3,179 6,943 0

0 3,488 6,351 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

660 660 566 81 78 485 453 94 0 4 0 0 0

374 374 324 139 128 185 128 51 0 0 0 0 0

232 232 232 209 177 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

185 185 184 181 176 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0

532 532 532 519 509 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

627 627 627 583 560 44 44 0 0 0 0 0 0

237 237 237 237 232 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

370 370 293 293 288 0 0 78 0 78 0 0 0

0 50

0 74

0 84

0 137

0 455

0 465

0 204

0 202

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

74 74 39 9 4 30 21 35 0 13 0 0 0

152 152 45 16 7 29 13 107 0 45 0 0 0

91 91 43 40 22 3 3 48 0 39 0 0 0

71 71 62 55 31 6 6 10 0 4 0 0 0

108 108 98 65 42 33 33 10 0 5 0 0 0

37 37 33 19 12 14 13 4 0 4 0 0 0

38 38 32 21 13 12 12 6 0 2 0 0 0

41 41 34 28 18 5 2 7 0 3 0 0 0

4 2

7 4

4 12

0 21

0 22

0 5

0 9

0 13

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

37 37 20 8 5 11 8 17 0 11 0 0 0

48 48 24 13 7 11 9 24 0 11 0 0 0

61 61 32 23 14 9 6 29 0 27 0 0 0

52 52 48 33 20 14 11 4 0 1 0 0 0

61 61 58 27 17 31 30 3 0 1 0 0 0

36 36 35 27 19 8 7 1 0 1 0 0 0

43 43 41 31 24 10 9 2 0 1 0 0 0

46 46 44 39 31 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

3 4

2 6

0 11

0 13

0 14

0 12

0 17

0 23

160

ETHIOPIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.6 0.9 0.0 23.7

.. 0.5 0.3 0.1 24.2

.. 0.4 0.2 0.1 29.0

.. 0.3 0.3 0.1 76.0

4.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 78.0

5.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 77.2

6.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 76.6

4.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 75.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 30 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 0 14 0 0 12 0 12 0 0 11 0 2 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 66 7 0 25 0 0 1 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 985 789 245 -61 244 560 203 133 90 454 360 585 22 -105 -75 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

10 0 12 12 0 0 0 0 72 23 14 0

11 11 11 11 0 0 0 0 101 16 281 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 8 1,301 0

799 629 245

661 229 265

-613 309 154

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.3 19.6 4.4 39.6

6.6 21.7 3.5 23.7

1.0 36.3 9.3 76.1

0.8 38.8 10.1 79.5

0.9 43.0 11.4 80.2

1.0 39.6 9.9 77.0

0.8 45.1 10.4 82.1

0.7 40.9 9.6 79.8

2.3 24.0 5.5 49.2

1.9 32.7 8.0 59.0

1.0 36.3 9.3 76.1

0.8 38.8 10.1 79.5

0.9 43.0 11.4 80.2

1.0 39.6 9.9 77.0

0.8 45.1 10.4 82.1

0.7 40.9 9.6 79.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.4 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

129 69

121 70

120 68

204 67

403 59

200 54

159 51

166 49

116 58

109 57

117 57

133 56

144 54

146 53

159 51

166 49

10 10

7 10

8 10

9 10

10 9

11 9

12 8

12 8

106 47

102 47

109 47

124 46

134 45

135 44

147 43

153 41

13 11

12 12

3 12

71 11

258 5

54 1

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS debt data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club and commercial bank debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

161

FIJI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

443.7 410.2 302.2 108.0 14.5 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

403.1 391.1 296.4 94.7 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

246.1 231.2 163.2 68.0 0.0 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

134.2 118.6 99.5 19.1 0.0 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

114.3 98.4 85.4 13.0 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

140.1 103.5 96.0 7.5 0.0 36.7 0.1 0.1 0.0

203.1 117.0 110.5 6.4 0.0 86.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

201.8 126.6 119.6 7.0 0.0 75.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

38.7 33.9 4.8 36.3 31.2 5.1 -0.6 -3.0 27.3 24.6 1.1 1.6 -28.0 63.6 55.8 6.3 1.6

29.3 29.3 0.0 73.0 72.1 0.8 -45.6 -2.0 32.6 31.1 0.0 1.5 -78.2 105.6 103.2 0.8 1.5

15.2 15.2 0.0 50.7 50.7 0.0 -36.6 -1.1 15.6 14.7 0.0 0.9 -52.2 66.3 65.3 0.0 0.9

7.1 7.1 0.0 22.5 22.5 0.0 -17.1 -1.7 7.2 6.3 0.0 0.8 -24.3 29.7 28.8 0.0 0.8

4.4 4.4 0.0 17.1 17.1 0.0 -12.4 0.3 5.8 5.2 0.0 0.6 -18.2 22.9 22.3 0.0 0.6

13.7 13.7 0.0 16.3 16.3 0.0 18.2 20.7 5.4 5.0 0.0 0.5 12.7 21.7 21.2 0.0 0.5

16.3 16.3 0.0 11.7 11.7 0.0 54.1 49.6 6.6 4.5 0.0 2.1 47.5 18.3 16.2 0.0 2.1

11.8 11.8 0.0 8.9 8.9 0.0 -7.9 -10.8 5.7 3.9 0.0 1.8 -13.6 14.6 12.7 0.0 1.8

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

41.0 2.7 21.7 0.0 16.6 16.3

63.4 -42.8 92.0 0.0 14.3 36.2

56.0 -35.5 70.0 0.0 21.4 30.9

29.8 -15.4 35.8 0.0 9.3 21.9

35.6 -12.7 43.2 0.0 5.1 22.4

21.4 -2.5 18.0 0.0 6.0 22.8

44.2 4.6 22.8 0.0 16.8 27.4

20.2 2.9 -9.3 0.0 26.7 29.4

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-5.4 24.6 21.8

-17.1 31.1 49.4

-42.4 14.7 83.7

23.4 6.3 0.0

30.4 5.2 0.0

16.5 5.0 0.0

39.7 4.5 0.0

16.4 3.9 0.0

1,568.0 .. 24.0 .. 366.6 ..

1,736.8 .. 24.0 .. 359.1 ..

2,152.5 .. 24.0 .. 424.0 ..

2,489.4 .. 24.0 .. 478.5 ..

.. 7.3 .. .. 0.4 320.8 .. 13.9 15.2 66.3

.. 8.1 .. .. 0.3 256.3 .. 26.2 18.7 55.8

.. 9.4 .. .. 0.3 208.8 .. 42.4 16.5 41.5

.. 8.1 .. .. 0.2 237.1 .. 37.3 17.9 45.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,097.1 543.2 28.0 558.4 134.5 18.7

1,289.6 881.6 22.0 974.3 261.1 -94.0

81.7 40.4 11.7 5.0 2.5 30.3 2.9 4.3 4.5 32.5

45.7 31.3 12.0 3.7 2.5 64.8 3.2 3.0 7.4 50.1

1,918.7 1,139.1 33.0 1,254.7 349.3 -112.7

1,592.6 .. 24.0 .. 412.0 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

21.6 12.8 5.8 1.4 0.8 141.9 3.3 6.0 8.5 60.8

162

.. 8.4 .. .. 0.5 307.0 .. 11.6 14.0 66.1

FIJI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

410.2 302.2 220.1 144.0 9.1 76.1 10.9 82.1 0.1 57.1 108.0 0.0 108.0

391.1 296.4 269.5 202.0 14.7 67.5 15.3 26.9 0.0 12.1 94.7 0.0 94.7

231.2 163.2 162.7 149.7 11.6 13.0 9.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 68.0 0.0 68.0

118.6 99.5 99.5 88.8 8.2 10.7 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.1 0.0 19.1

98.4 85.4 85.4 75.7 7.7 9.7 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 0.0 13.0

103.5 96.0 96.0 78.2 8.6 17.7 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 7.5

117.0 110.5 110.5 84.3 7.3 26.3 26.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 6.4

126.6 119.6 119.6 91.0 7.5 28.6 28.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 7.0

63.4 0.0 302.2 108.0

67.8 0.0 296.4 94.7

35.3 0.0 163.2 68.0

19.7 0.0 99.5 19.1

14.8 0.0 85.4 13.0

12.0 0.0 96.0 7.5

11.1 0.0 110.5 6.4

9.3 0.0 119.6 7.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

33.9 33.9 6.1 3.9 0.2 2.2 0.0 27.7 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

29.3 15.1 14.4 13.2 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.6 14.2 0.0 14.2

15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 7.1 7.1 5.6 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.7 13.7 13.7 5.7 0.0 8.1 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.3 16.3 16.3 9.2 0.2 7.1 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.8 11.8 11.8 9.5 0.1 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

5.1 0.0

5.6 0.0

1.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

31.2 31.2 14.4 8.7 0.0 5.6 0.7 16.8 0.0 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

72.1 54.6 41.5 33.8 0.3 7.7 0.8 13.2 0.0 5.7 17.5 0.0 17.5

50.7 31.2 30.2 28.2 0.5 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.2 19.5 0.0 19.5

22.5 16.9 16.9 14.8 0.5 2.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 0.0 5.6

17.1 11.0 11.0 10.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0 6.1

16.3 10.8 10.7 9.8 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 5.5

11.7 10.6 10.6 9.6 2.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.1

8.9 6.4 6.4 5.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.5

5.5 0.0

9.1 0.0

11.5 0.0

7.7 0.0

3.8 0.0

3.8 0.0

2.1 0.0

2.3 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

24.6 24.6 17.6 10.7 0.1 6.9 0.5 7.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

31.1 23.7 21.1 15.0 0.1 6.0 0.3 2.6 0.0 1.1 7.4 0.0 7.4

14.7 10.3 10.2 9.5 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 4.4 0.0 4.4

6.3 5.5 5.5 5.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8

5.2 4.5 4.5 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.7

5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5

4.5 3.8 3.8 3.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.7

3.9 3.6 3.6 3.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3

5.0 0.0

5.6 0.0

3.0 0.0

1.4 0.0

0.9 0.0

0.7 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.4 0.0

163

FIJI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.1 15.8 0.0 21.3

.. 0.0 13.7 0.0 5.4

.. 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.8

.. 1.4 0.0 0.0 11.7

5.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 18.4

4.9 10.2 0.0 0.0 20.5

5.0 16.9 0.0 0.0 25.1

4.7 18.0 0.0 0.0 30.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 30.3 -6.9 -32.3 -26.4 -19.9 -0.6 -45.6 -36.6 -17.1 -12.4 12.2 24.5 -6.0 -7.9 -6.9 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

25.8 18.2 6.2

62.9 54.1 6.6

-1.3 -7.9 2.5

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.1 13.6 4.8 18.7

6.6 24.7 5.1 22.8

4.5 12.0 4.5 28.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 24.4 3.9 51.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.6 24.0 4.5 51.6

6.5 15.7 5.9 22.7

6.6 24.8 5.1 22.9

4.5 12.0 4.5 28.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 24.4 3.9 51.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.6 24.0 4.5 51.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.6 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11.3 5.6

12.2 6.3

11.7 6.1

11.1 5.8

13.5 5.5

11.8 5.1

12.7 4.8

11.4 4.3

9.0 5.4

10.9 6.2

10.7 6.0

10.3 5.8

12.9 5.5

11.8 5.1

12.2 4.7

10.8 4.3

1.9 0.8

1.9 0.8

1.9 0.7

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.6

1.9 0.5

1.9 0.4

1.7 0.4

7.1 4.5

8.9 5.4

8.7 5.3

8.4 5.1

11.0 4.9

9.9 4.6

10.3 4.3

9.2 3.9

2.2 0.2

1.3 0.2

1.0 0.1

0.8 0.1

0.6 0.1

0.0 0.0

0.5 0.0

0.5 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

164

GABON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,206 944 944 0 0 262 0 0 0

3,983 3,150 3,150 0 140 693 130 111 19

4,360 3,976 3,976 0 97 287 0 0 0

3,920 3,453 3,453 0 89 377 63 59 5

3,423 3,041 3,041 0 75 307 6 4 2

3,546 3,241 3,241 0 67 238 16 12 4

3,792 3,395 3,395 0 59 339 268 262 6

4,150 3,800 3,800 0 100 250 188 183 5

0 0 0

82 17 65

26 0 26

124 116 8

26 25 1

52 45 7

425 338 87

267 177 90

301 301 0 168 168 0 144 11 78 57 0 22 66 246 225 0 22

204 195 9 40 26 15 164 0 136 78 13 45 28 176 104 27 45

279 222 57 216 165 52 14 -49 240 217 5 17 -226 456 382 57 17

49 32 17 196 187 10 -341 -194 156 124 4 28 -497 352 311 14 28

18 18 0 273 262 11 -269 -13 181 166 4 12 -450 455 428 15 12

71 71 0 238 225 13 -245 -79 170 158 2 10 -415 407 382 15 10

29 29 0 241 226 14 -362 -151 134 129 1 4 -496 375 355 15 4

202 140 62 178 153 25 15 -9 45 42 2 2 -30 223 194 26 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

164 133 15 0 16 30

273 170 73 0 30 36

-171 57 -315 0 87 46

-159 -155 -43 0 39 26

-297 -244 -89 0 36 27

-51 -153 46 0 56 29

167 -197 279 0 85 42

341 -13 323 0 31 45

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-11 57 118

78 78 116

-625 217 236

-756 124 473

-656 166 193

-510 158 301

-548 129 587

-89 42 0

4,240 3,549 6 2,483 194 1,001

3,753 2,813 5 2,216 13 517

4,167 2,719 3 2,250 144 336

5,204 3,440 6 2,681 202 575

6,220 .. 6 .. 449 ..

110.5 92.5 9.9 4.4 3.7 4.9 0.9 9.6 35.0 11.8

121.7 91.2 16.2 6.5 4.8 0.4 0.1 9.0 37.6 11.2

130.4 85.1 15.0 6.2 4.1 4.1 0.8 6.7 37.2 11.3

110.2 72.9 10.9 3.9 2.6 5.3 0.9 8.9 25.7 10.6

.. 66.7 .. .. 0.7 10.8 .. 6.0 20.1 11.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

3,096 2,119 0 2,186 197 -162

5,336 2,750 0 2,448 279 168

56.9 39.0 11.6 3.7 2.5 16.3 1.1 21.7 10.4 7.8

144.8 74.6 6.4 4.9 2.5 7.0 1.4 17.4 10.6 8.0

4,241 2,984 4 2,473 153 465

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

146.1 102.8 15.3 8.0 5.7 3.5 0.7 6.6 16.2 13.5

165

GABON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

944 944 340 94 15 246 110 604 0 89 0 0 0

3,150 3,150 2,435 317 29 2,118 393 715 0 181 0 0 0

3,976 3,976 3,778 588 28 3,189 680 199 0 148 0 0 0

3,453 3,453 3,335 464 27 2,871 1,344 119 0 83 0 0 0

3,041 3,041 2,952 384 27 2,568 1,261 90 0 66 0 0 0

3,241 3,241 3,086 401 30 2,685 1,291 155 0 89 0 0 0

3,395 3,395 3,136 403 39 2,734 935 258 0 78 0 0 0

3,800 3,800 3,558 465 42 3,093 793 242 0 74 0 0 0

11 0 942 2

69 0 3,148 2

110 0 3,976 0

64 0 3,453 0

55 0 3,041 0

50 0 3,241 0

49 0 3,395 0

38 0 3,800 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

301 301 71 21 2 49 23 231 0 15 0 0 0

195 195 158 84 4 74 63 37 0 0 0 0 0

222 222 222 150 2 72 62 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 32 11 9 1 2 2 21 0 21 0 0 0

18 18 5 5 1 0 0 13 0 13 0 0 0

71 71 30 16 0 14 14 41 0 1 0 0 0

29 29 29 18 0 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

140 140 126 112 11 14 14 14 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

10 0

4 0

9 0

4 0

2 0

2 0

3 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

168 168 32 5 0 27 5 136 0 71 0 0 0

26 26 18 13 1 5 0 8 0 3 0 0 0

165 165 90 43 2 48 10 75 0 26 0 0 0

187 187 159 43 0 116 16 27 0 27 0 0 0

262 262 222 45 0 177 80 40 0 28 0 0 0

225 225 200 26 0 174 66 25 0 11 0 0 0

226 226 154 69 8 85 63 73 0 18 0 0 0

153 153 116 67 11 49 49 37 0 7 0 0 0

1 0

1 0

12 0

13 0

13 0

8 0

6 0

14 0

57 57 16 3 0 13 3 41 0 11 0 0 0

78 78 68 21 0 47 2 11 0 5 0 0 0

217 217 174 26 1 148 40 44 0 26 0 0 0

124 124 118 42 0 75 9 7 0 7 0 0 0

166 166 156 27 0 129 43 10 0 5 0 0 0

158 158 152 18 0 134 23 6 0 3 0 0 0

129 129 111 40 1 71 13 17 0 6 0 0 0

42 42 35 26 1 9 9 7 0 1 0 0 0

1 0

5 0

8 0

5 0

7 0

4 0

2 0

3 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

166

GABON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 1.5 7.8 1.2 17.7

.. 0.7 5.3 0.3 10.3

.. 0.9 5.0 0.8 11.5

.. 0.8 4.6 0.5 29.1

45.6 0.7 4.5 0.6 32.6

48.6 0.6 4.2 0.6 30.5

72.8 0.9 6.9 0.3 7.5

57.1 0.6 5.3 0.2 25.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 271 472 637 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 188 253 440 82 0 32 249 440 82 0 156 4 0 0 0 77 68 307 74 0 27 67 307 74 0 50 1 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 287 632 189 -62 -497 144 164 14 -341 -269 115 293 228 -196 -109 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 14 0 0

735 0 500 496 4 235 233 3 0 0 0 0

123 -245 309

246 -362 370

358 15 213

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

10.2 10.1 2.9 0.5

7.9 17.9 4.8 12.3

4.7 13.0 5.9 30.4

0.0 8.7 0.7 34.1

4.4 19.8 5.3 36.6

4.5 9.3 2.7 22.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 19.6 5.1 53.0

6.4 23.2 7.0 29.3

7.7 19.0 5.4 13.9

4.7 13.0 5.9 30.4

0.0 8.7 0.7 34.1

4.4 19.8 5.3 36.6

3.7 10.1 3.9 28.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 19.6 5.1 53.0

10.8 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 8.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 2.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -4.1 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

597 197

574 172

573 142

563 109

534 75

289 49

245 37

206 24

557 190

543 166

545 138

535 106

520 73

280 48

242 36

203 23

481 169

469 146

474 120

468 90

463 60

229 37

193 27

161 17

77 21

74 20

71 18

67 16

57 13

51 11

50 9

42 7

40 7

31 6

28 4

28 3

13 2

9 1

3 1

3 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

167

GAMBIA, THE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

245.1 176.7 176.7 0.0 33.0 35.4 8.4 4.1 4.3

369.1 308.4 308.4 0.0 44.9 15.7 0.6 0.6 0.0

426.1 385.5 385.5 0.0 25.8 14.8 0.7 0.7 0.0

483.3 437.9 437.9 0.0 18.1 27.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

487.9 435.3 435.3 0.0 25.9 26.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

576.5 507.1 507.1 0.0 31.9 37.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

634.6 567.0 567.0 0.0 34.9 32.8 2.8 2.7 0.1

673.7 622.0 622.0 0.0 24.8 27.0 3.0 2.9 0.1

11.1 5.6 5.5

0.9 0.9 0.0

2.2 2.1 0.1

2.0 2.0 0.0

4.0 4.0 0.0

7.9 7.9 0.0

14.7 13.9 0.8

18.4 17.3 1.1

13.7 13.7 0.0 4.0 0.4 3.6 -4.3 -14.0 5.0 0.5 1.6 2.9 -9.2 9.0 0.9 5.2 2.9

32.8 23.5 9.3 25.5 20.2 5.3 15.5 8.1 12.3 10.2 1.3 0.8 3.2 37.7 30.3 6.7 0.8

23.0 23.0 0.0 21.7 15.5 6.2 -7.6 -8.8 6.3 5.2 0.2 0.9 -13.9 28.0 20.7 6.4 0.9

29.7 20.7 9.1 14.3 12.7 1.6 20.6 5.2 7.3 6.0 0.1 1.2 13.3 21.5 18.7 1.7 1.2

32.4 23.7 8.7 9.8 9.6 0.2 22.1 -0.5 4.6 3.5 0.1 1.0 17.5 14.4 13.1 0.3 1.0

56.9 53.2 3.7 9.2 9.2 0.0 58.0 10.2 5.9 5.2 0.1 0.6 52.1 15.1 14.4 0.1 0.6

40.4 40.4 0.0 11.3 11.3 0.0 22.1 -7.0 9.1 8.6 0.1 0.4 13.0 20.4 19.9 0.1 0.4

49.3 49.3 0.0 24.7 13.5 11.2 18.6 -6.0 9.0 8.0 0.2 0.8 9.6 33.7 21.5 11.4 0.8

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

33.9 13.3 0.0 0.0 20.5 17.9

48.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 44.7 24.2

33.1 7.5 8.0 0.0 17.6 22.8

73.2 8.0 43.5 0.0 21.7 9.7

63.5 14.1 35.5 0.0 14.0 11.4

107.3 44.0 42.8 0.0 20.5 12.7

72.5 29.1 25.0 0.0 18.3 14.2

118.8 35.8 60.0 0.0 23.0 11.0

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

33.3 0.5 0.0

37.9 10.2 0.0

27.9 5.2 0.0

67.3 6.0 0.0

60.0 3.5 0.0

102.1 5.2 0.0

63.8 8.6 0.0

110.8 8.0 0.0

400.4 .. 14.0 .. 109.4 ..

394.8 .. 7.0 .. 106.0 ..

347.3 .. 7.0 .. 106.9 ..

347.1 .. 8.0 .. 59.3 ..

393.0 .. 8.0 .. 83.8 ..

.. 120.7 .. .. 1.8 22.6 .. 5.7 87.1 71.1

.. 123.6 .. .. 1.2 21.7 .. 5.5 86.5 70.4

.. 166.0 .. .. 1.7 18.5 .. 6.5 85.6 68.1

.. 182.8 .. .. 2.6 9.3 .. 5.2 87.2 71.1

.. 171.4 .. .. 2.3 12.4 .. 4.0 90.4 74.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

217.9 87.2 6.0 94.2 1.7 7.3

291.4 169.7 10.0 205.4 55.4 23.4

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

281.0 112.5 10.3 5.7 2.3 0.7 0.2 14.4 50.0 34.9

217.5 126.7 22.2 7.2 4.2 15.0 3.2 4.3 67.8 55.0

377.1 181.0 19.0 241.4 106.1 -8.2

4. DEBT INDICATORS 235.3 113.0 15.5 3.5 1.7 24.9 5.3 3.5 84.8 76.6

168

GAMBIA, THE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

176.7 176.7 138.6 85.5 69.6 53.1 53.1 38.1 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

308.4 308.4 290.1 203.1 183.3 87.0 66.8 18.3 0.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

385.5 385.5 385.2 326.2 305.4 59.0 55.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

437.9 437.9 436.2 343.7 333.6 92.5 87.3 1.7 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

435.3 435.3 434.1 343.5 335.6 90.6 86.5 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

507.1 507.1 506.0 392.8 385.4 113.2 108.1 1.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

567.0 567.0 565.7 451.2 444.8 114.5 108.9 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

622.0 622.0 620.7 502.6 497.0 118.1 111.9 1.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 35.2 172.1 4.6

0.0 101.6 306.6 1.8

0.0 161.6 385.3 0.2

0.0 170.7 437.9 0.0

0.0 169.9 435.3 0.0

0.0 194.5 507.1 0.0

0.0 220.1 567.0 0.0

0.0 247.4 622.0 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

13.7 13.7 13.7 10.4 6.6 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.5 23.5 23.5 17.7 16.6 5.8 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.0 23.0 23.0 19.0 18.9 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.7 20.7 20.7 17.1 17.1 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.7 23.7 23.7 19.6 19.6 4.1 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

53.2 53.2 53.2 29.3 29.3 23.9 23.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

40.4 40.4 40.4 35.5 35.5 4.9 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

49.3 49.3 49.3 42.1 42.1 7.2 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 4.3

0.0 9.8

0.0 11.6

0.0 7.7

0.0 7.5

0.0 15.0

0.0 11.4

0.0 20.8

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.2 20.2 12.7 4.7 2.7 7.9 7.9 7.5 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.5 15.5 15.1 6.7 3.4 8.5 4.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.7 12.7 12.2 7.9 6.4 4.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.6 9.6 9.1 4.0 2.9 5.1 4.1 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.2 9.2 9.0 4.0 2.9 5.1 5.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.3 11.3 11.3 5.1 4.7 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.5 13.5 13.5 8.3 7.1 5.2 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.8

0.0 2.3

0.0 0.6

0.0 0.7

0.0 1.0

0.0 1.4

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.2 10.2 5.5 2.9 1.5 2.6 2.6 4.7 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 5.2 3.5 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.0 6.0 5.8 3.6 3.3 2.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.5 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 5.1 3.2 3.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.6 8.6 8.6 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.0 8.0 8.0 5.7 5.7 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.7

0.0 1.2

0.0 1.2

0.0 1.1

0.0 1.2

0.0 1.4

0.0 1.9

169

GAMBIA, THE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 15.1 1.5 28.7

.. 0.0 8.5 1.3 39.1

.. 0.0 6.3 0.2 43.5

.. 0.0 4.8 0.0 51.3

5.8 0.0 4.7 0.0 52.4

5.6 0.0 3.9 0.0 54.9

5.1 0.0 3.2 0.0 53.9

4.6 0.0 2.8 0.0 54.8

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 14.8 31.4 3.1 18.7 4.6 -4.3 15.5 -7.6 20.6 22.1 4.6 3.3 -17.5 -9.5 -5.1 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.3 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.2 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0

88.5 58.0 20.3

58.2 22.1 21.4

39.1 18.6 12.2

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.1 14.3 3.8 15.5

0.8 42.1 10.0 79.7

3.5 21.3 6.2 45.7

1.7 27.4 6.8 61.3

1.2 36.6 8.5 72.3

1.9 31.0 8.3 64.8

0.6 22.3 5.7 66.5

1.8 25.7 5.9 59.9

7.1 14.3 3.8 15.5

0.8 42.1 10.0 79.7

3.5 21.3 6.2 45.7

1.7 27.4 6.8 61.3

1.2 36.6 8.5 72.3

1.9 31.0 8.3 64.8

0.6 22.3 5.7 66.5

1.8 25.7 5.9 59.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

23.9 7.8

22.1 8.1

23.1 8.3

23.8 8.3

26.8 8.2

29.8 7.9

31.5 7.5

31.9 7.1

23.7 7.8

22.1 8.1

23.1 8.3

23.8 8.3

26.8 8.2

29.8 7.9

31.5 7.5

31.9 7.1

9.6 3.1

7.5 3.1

7.3 3.0

7.3 2.9

7.8 2.8

8.4 2.6

8.1 2.4

7.9 2.2

14.1 4.7

14.5 5.0

15.9 5.2

16.6 5.4

19.0 5.4

21.4 5.3

23.4 5.1

24.0 4.9

0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004.

170

GEORGIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,240 1,039 1,039 0 116 85 61 54 8

1,638 1,316 1,274 42 278 44 1 1 0

1,729 1,364 1,311 53 287 78 18 18 0

1,839 1,496 1,445 51 310 33 0 0 0

1,935 1,608 1,564 44 289 38 7 7 0

2,082 1,710 1,611 99 266 106 7 7 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

211 203 8

179 179 0

247 247 0

302 302 0

314 314 0

191 191 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

174 98 76 0 0 0 -272 -446 20 17 3 0 -292 20 17 3 0

65 65 0 68 42 26 33 36 49 43 5 1 -17 118 86 31 1

142 108 34 43 27 15 117 17 35 29 3 2 82 77 57 19 2

128 99 29 86 56 30 16 -27 43 39 2 2 -27 129 95 32 2

89 89 0 139 91 47 -52 -2 42 39 2 1 -94 181 131 49 1

197 176 21 185 130 55 80 68 33 29 2 2 47 218 159 57 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

188 98 6 0 85 37

211 23 131 0 57 83

265 80 110 0 75 106

280 43 167 0 70 153

417 -3 339 0 81 108

683 46 499 0 138 102

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

171 17 0

167 43 0

225 29 11

188 39 53

309 39 69

574 29 80

3,175 939 274 1,248 109 -269

3,252 995 181 1,348 159 -212

3,435 1,229 230 1,569 198 -198

4,026 1,518 239 2,000 191 -367

5,296 1,947 303 2,646 383 -349

174.5 51.6 12.5 5.3 1.6 6.7 1.1 2.7 49.1 29.2

173.7 53.2 7.8 3.5 1.1 9.2 1.4 4.5 49.7 30.1

149.6 53.5 10.5 3.5 1.3 10.7 1.5 1.8 54.4 34.6

127.5 48.1 11.9 2.8 1.0 9.9 1.1 2.0 59.4 38.4

106.9 39.3 11.2 1.7 0.6 18.4 1.7 5.1 61.6 40.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

2,574 .. 0 .. 194 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. 48.2 .. .. 0.8 15.6 .. 6.9 6.9 19.7

171

GEORGIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,039 1,039 939 245 84 694 2 100 0 0 0 0 0

1,316 1,274 1,272 478 350 794 454 2 0 0 42 0 42

1,364 1,311 1,309 521 399 788 460 2 0 0 53 0 53

1,496 1,445 1,443 636 495 806 504 2 0 0 51 0 51

1,608 1,564 1,561 744 589 818 561 3 0 0 44 0 44

1,710 1,611 1,608 835 687 773 596 3 0 0 99 0 99

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0 84 1,039 0

0 347 1,264 52

0 396 1,303 61

0 491 1,439 57

0 583 1,559 49

0 678 1,609 101

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

98 98 98 96 85 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

65 37 37 25 19 13 13 0 0 0 28 0 28

108 91 91 74 63 17 17 0 0 0 17 0 17

99 93 93 73 63 19 19 0 0 0 7 0 7

89 72 72 50 45 22 22 0 0 0 16 0 16

176 102 102 73 67 29 29 0 0 0 74 0 74

.. ..

.. ..

0 85

0 18

0 63

0 61

0 43

0 65

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

42 41 41 5 0 35 22 0 0 0 2 0 2

27 24 24 12 0 12 0 0 0 0 4 0 4

56 33 33 7 0 26 0 0 0 0 23 0 23

91 58 57 12 0 46 0 0 0 0 34 0 34

130 119 119 21 0 98 1 0 0 0 11 0 11

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

17 17 17 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

43 42 42 8 3 34 17 0 0 0 1 0 1

29 27 27 10 3 17 17 0 0 0 2 0 2

39 37 37 10 3 27 16 0 0 0 2 0 2

39 38 38 9 4 28 17 0 0 0 1 0 1

29 26 26 10 5 16 9 0 0 0 3 0 3

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 3

0 3

0 3

0 4

0 5

172

GEORGIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.4 75.3

.. 0.2 0.0 0.2 82.3

15.6 0.7 0.0 0.2 83.2

17.0 1.5 0.0 0.2 80.5

19.3 2.3 0.0 0.2 77.0

20.2 2.7 0.0 0.2 73.8

.. 0 0 34 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 34 .. 0 0 34 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. -210 -16 91 .. .. -272 33 117 .. .. 18 -51 -36 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

48 0 48 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

123 0 115 115 0 8 8 0 0 0 0 0

110 16 97

96 -52 132

147 80 68

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1.5 32.3 9.6 71.3

1.1 32.0 8.9 72.2

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.8 39.4 9.9 80.1

0.8 39.7 10.4 80.7

1.3 33.3 9.9 71.6

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1.5 32.3 9.6 71.3

1.1 32.0 8.9 72.2

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.8 39.4 9.9 80.1

0.8 39.7 10.4 80.7

1.3 33.3 9.9 71.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

72 31

63 30

56 29

59 27

87 25

87 23

93 21

75 18

68 27

53 26

43 25

45 24

72 23

75 22

81 20

64 18

58 18

41 17

28 16

27 15

29 14

31 13

36 12

19 11

10 9

12 9

15 9

17 9

43 9

44 8

44 7

45 7

4 4

10 4

13 3

14 3

15 2

13 2

13 1

10 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

173

GHANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,243 1,352 1,312 40 701 190 15 14 2

3,734 2,670 2,637 33 745 320 56 45 11

5,495 4,227 4,200 27 648 620 26 21 5

6,116 5,251 4,994 257 293 572 10 7 3

6,343 5,508 5,253 255 284 551 14 4 10

6,962 6,009 5,756 253 363 590 18 7 11

7,551 6,402 6,401 1 453 696 21 7 14

7,035 5,861 5,861 0 468 706 19 8 11

29 25 4

77 50 27

86 45 41

25 11 14

36 7 29

53 22 31

53 18 35

35 9 26

307 185 122 72 65 7 179 -56 87 30 39 18 92 159 95 46 18

473 408 65 260 143 116 312 98 104 55 37 12 207 364 199 153 12

570 528 42 292 184 108 349 71 95 57 10 28 254 386 241 117 28

397 362 35 254 217 37 7 -136 134 95 1 38 -127 388 312 39 38

622 555 67 190 124 65 407 -25 90 61 1 27 317 280 186 67 27

316 248 68 88 83 5 263 34 90 71 2 17 173 178 154 6 17

409 335 74 368 366 2 144 104 89 66 2 20 55 457 433 4 20

455 416 39 154 130 24 314 12 86 58 2 25 228 240 188 26 25

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

201 120 6 0 75 31

728 265 15 0 449 61

690 344 107 0 238 108

537 144 166 0 227 126

827 431 89 0 308 115

587 165 59 0 363 127

567 -31 137 0 461 138

2,243 286 139 0 1,817 142

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

166 30 4

666 55 7

633 57 0

442 95 0

766 61 0

515 71 0

501 66 0

2,184 58 0

4,831 2,489 32 3,474 309 -387

5,201 2,461 46 3,699 376 -325

6,030 2,628 44 3,517 636 -32

7,459 3,279 65 4,358 1,470 255

8,797 3,614 82 5,598 1,750 -236

245.8 126.6 15.6 5.4 2.8 5.1 1.1 9.4 73.3 59.9

257.7 121.9 11.4 3.6 1.7 5.9 1.2 8.7 70.4 58.7

264.9 115.4 6.8 3.4 1.5 9.1 2.2 8.5 71.7 58.7

230.3 101.2 13.9 2.7 1.2 19.5 4.0 9.2 75.0 61.6

194.7 80.0 6.6 2.4 1.0 24.9 3.8 10.0 74.3 72.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

4,425 676 4 952 552 -134

5,774 955 6 1,583 309 -223

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

331.7 50.7 23.5 12.9 2.0 24.6 7.0 8.5 40.8 23.5

391.1 64.7 38.1 10.9 1.8 8.3 2.3 8.6 53.2 49.4

6,324 1,613 17 2,262 804 -144

4. DEBT INDICATORS 340.7 86.9 24.0 5.9 1.5 14.6 4.3 11.3 63.2 54.3

174

GHANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,352 1,312 1,145 527 358 618 556 167 0 0 40 0 40

2,670 2,637 2,424 1,846 1,510 578 475 213 0 10 33 0 33

4,227 4,200 3,847 2,982 2,670 865 802 352 0 97 27 0 27

5,251 4,994 4,703 3,663 3,515 1,039 970 292 0 51 257 250 7

5,508 5,253 4,870 3,725 3,600 1,145 863 384 0 125 255 250 5

6,009 5,756 5,382 4,085 3,973 1,297 1,021 374 0 144 253 250 3

6,402 6,401 6,047 4,654 4,550 1,393 1,117 353 0 173 1 0 1

5,861 5,861 5,545 5,110 5,005 435 223 316 0 247 0 0 0

118 259 1,308 44

113 1,310 2,637 33

59 2,375 4,200 27

9 3,130 4,994 257

6 3,172 5,253 255

5 3,471 5,756 253

4 3,950 6,401 1

2 4,309 5,861 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

185 177 137 104 85 33 28 40 0 0 8 0 8

408 400 351 274 214 77 68 48 0 9 8 0 8

528 528 414 284 269 130 124 115 0 64 0 0 0

362 362 340 223 222 117 88 22 0 14 0 0 0

555 555 352 261 258 90 58 203 0 91 0 0 0

248 248 227 158 155 69 36 21 0 21 0 0 0

335 335 296 274 269 23 16 38 0 38 0 0 0

416 416 354 334 318 20 20 62 0 62 0 0 0

8 62

0 201

0 242

0 204

0 193

0 99

0 198

0 230

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

65 65 51 15 2 36 29 14 0 0 0 0 0

143 135 64 29 6 35 33 71 0 17 8 0 8

184 179 108 73 17 34 32 72 0 2 5 0 5

217 214 141 68 35 74 59 73 0 25 3 0 3

124 122 83 65 45 18 10 39 0 16 2 0 2

83 81 46 30 18 15 14 36 0 5 2 0 2

366 114 61 33 21 28 22 53 0 21 252 250 2

130 129 99 29 21 70 6 30 0 9 1 0 1

9 1

10 2

15 8

8 25

3 34

1 10

2 8

2 11

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

30 30 25 14 4 10 9 6 0 0 0 0 0

55 53 42 30 10 12 10 11 0 2 2 0 2

57 55 50 40 18 10 9 5 0 0 2 0 2

95 80 64 39 26 26 21 16 0 3 14 14 1

61 47 40 33 27 7 6 7 0 2 14 14 0

71 57 42 34 25 7 6 16 0 3 14 14 0

66 66 52 32 26 21 15 14 0 5 0 0 0

58 58 47 38 33 9 4 11 0 4 0 0 0

8 2

9 8

6 17

1 22

1 25

0 20

1 21

0 28

175

GHANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.1 4.2 0.0 45.2

.. 5.4 3.0 0.7 60.5

.. 14.0 5.2 0.3 59.9

.. 16.2 2.1 0.1 67.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 83 102 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 284 440 394 -304 179 312 349 7 106 166 -120 -292 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

4.0 13.9 1.4 0.1 69.7

4.1 13.3 1.1 0.1 70.4

3.7 13.1 0.8 0.0 71.0

3.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 81.5

199 0 66 42 24 27 22 5 0 0 0 0

74 0 39 35 4 17 16 1 107 17 0 0

0 0 15 7 8 5 3 3 56 9 0 0

11 0 5 4 1 1 1 0 161 36 932 0

227 407 -238

619 263 361

589 144 471

-516 314 200

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.4 33.0 8.0 54.4

2.8 32.0 8.5 59.5

2.2 30.4 8.1 61.6

3.7 23.0 5.9 43.6

1.5 39.3 10.8 73.9

0.9 29.6 6.3 63.4

1.1 40.0 8.6 74.4

1.1 35.1 -47.8 70.0

3.0 35.9 8.7 59.9

2.1 35.4 9.4 67.2

1.5 34.8 9.4 71.1

1.4 34.7 8.9 69.8

0.8 41.1 11.9 81.3

0.8 40.2 8.5 73.8

1.1 40.7 8.8 75.5

0.9 37.4 -53.3 73.5

6.5 8.1 6.4 6.2 7.0 1.0 9.7 8.2 6.6 10.0 25.6 14.3 2.4 2.1 1.3 2.7 2.2 3.2 10.7 5.1 10.6 14.6 18.6 48.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.3 10.4 2.7 30.1

3.4 13.4 4.5 36.1

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

235 79

240 76

195 71

192 68

195 64

199 61

209 57

218 54

192 64

198 62

152 60

160 58

165 56

171 53

180 51

192 49

78 16

80 14

28 12

29 11

29 10

30 9

30 8

29 7

113 49

118 49

124 48

131 47

136 46

141 45

150 44

163 42

43 15

42 14

44 12

32 10

30 8

28 7

29 6

26 5

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

176

GRENADA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

58.1 52.2 52.2 0.0 4.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 0.0

110.8 97.9 97.9 0.0 0.0 12.9 6.9 6.5 0.3

127.0 112.4 112.4 0.0 0.0 14.6 6.6 6.3 0.3

201.4 179.8 179.8 0.0 0.0 21.6 4.5 1.6 2.9

239.6 183.9 183.9 0.0 0.0 55.7 4.7 2.9 1.8

366.0 294.1 294.1 0.0 0.0 71.9 4.9 2.8 2.1

376.9 300.1 300.1 0.0 4.4 72.5 6.5 3.7 2.8

432.9 347.1 347.1 0.0 9.1 76.7 13.7 4.5 9.3

2.6 2.6 0.0

17.0 15.4 1.5

20.8 19.7 1.1

10.6 7.3 3.2

8.2 7.4 0.8

7.0 7.0 0.0

6.0 5.9 0.2

8.0 7.5 0.5

4.4 4.4 0.0 4.6 2.1 2.5 -1.2 -1.0 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 -2.8 6.2 3.3 2.8 0.0

14.8 14.8 0.0 1.7 1.3 0.5 13.1 0.0 1.6 1.2 0.0 0.4 11.5 3.3 2.4 0.5 0.4

4.9 4.9 0.0 5.6 5.6 0.0 -1.7 -1.0 2.3 1.7 0.0 0.5 -4.0 7.9 7.4 0.0 0.5

77.6 77.6 0.0 10.1 10.1 0.0 63.4 -4.1 4.4 3.4 0.0 1.0 59.0 14.5 13.5 0.0 1.0

21.9 21.9 0.0 9.9 9.9 0.0 45.9 33.9 7.3 6.0 0.0 1.2 38.6 17.2 16.0 0.0 1.2

115.9 115.9 0.0 12.4 12.4 0.0 119.6 16.1 16.0 14.9 0.0 1.1 103.7 28.4 27.3 0.0 1.1

24.9 20.8 4.1 11.6 11.6 0.0 12.3 -1.0 19.3 18.4 0.0 0.8 -7.0 30.9 30.0 0.0 0.8

59.0 54.6 4.3 10.1 10.1 0.0 45.8 -3.0 19.0 17.0 0.1 1.9 26.8 29.1 27.1 0.1 1.9

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

18.1 2.3 4.1 0.0 11.7 20.5

30.8 13.5 13.0 0.0 4.2 2.8

27.4 -0.8 20.0 0.0 8.1 3.8

111.6 67.5 37.0 0.0 7.1 4.7

74.7 12.0 59.0 0.0 3.7 1.6

164.1 103.5 58.0 0.0 2.6 1.9

102.2 9.3 84.6 0.0 8.4 1.3

99.5 44.5 42.4 0.0 12.6 1.8

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

16.0 1.2 0.9

21.2 1.2 8.4

13.0 1.7 12.6

80.3 3.4 27.8

35.1 6.0 33.6

117.0 14.9 32.2

41.9 18.4 0.0

51.2 17.0 0.0

376.0 240.8 22.0 345.2 57.7 -84.3

352.7 200.7 22.0 320.9 63.9 -98.5

351.6 179.2 23.0 318.5 87.8 -116.2

389.0 171.4 23.0 354.6 83.2 -156.8

384.2 .. 23.0 .. 121.7 ..

83.6 53.6 6.0 1.8 1.2 28.6 2.0 10.7 47.0 31.4

119.4 67.9 8.6 3.6 2.1 26.7 2.4 23.2 42.2 27.9

204.3 104.1 15.8 8.9 4.5 24.0 3.3 19.7 29.4 20.9

220.0 96.9 18.0 11.3 5.0 22.1 2.8 19.2 28.6 22.4

.. 112.7 .. .. 4.9 28.1 .. 17.7 26.5 21.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. 54.3 0.0 89.7 20.8 2.8

208.9 105.5 18.0 153.2 17.6 -46.2

107.0 .. 11.4 2.9 .. 35.8 2.8 2.8 56.2 33.3

105.0 53.0 3.1 1.5 0.7 15.9 1.4 11.6 70.1 35.7

262.9 128.7 18.0 186.6 36.7 -40.8

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

98.7 48.3 6.1 1.8 0.9 28.9 2.4 11.5 68.7 39.6

177

GRENADA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

52.2 52.2 47.6 19.3 15.6 28.3 17.0 4.6 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

97.9 97.9 95.0 39.5 36.6 55.4 41.0 2.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

112.4 112.4 104.7 50.3 46.0 54.4 41.3 7.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

179.8 179.8 116.8 63.3 53.1 53.5 41.6 63.0 0.0 58.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

183.9 183.9 125.0 66.7 53.5 58.2 47.6 58.9 0.0 56.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

294.1 294.1 131.5 76.4 62.1 55.0 45.5 162.6 100.0 57.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

300.1 300.1 132.5 84.4 67.3 48.1 40.5 167.6 100.0 64.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

347.1 347.1 141.8 94.3 74.1 47.5 40.5 205.2 141.5 61.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 52.2 0.0

0.0 5.5 97.9 0.0

0.0 7.3 112.4 0.0

2.2 9.6 179.8 0.0

3.4 9.2 183.9 0.0

4.2 16.2 294.1 0.0

6.4 19.3 300.1 0.0

7.8 21.3 347.1 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4.4 4.4 4.4 1.7 1.5 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.8 14.8 14.3 2.9 2.9 11.4 11.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 4.9 4.9 3.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

77.6 77.6 19.8 11.7 7.0 8.1 7.2 57.8 0.0 56.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

21.9 21.9 21.9 7.4 3.5 14.6 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

115.9 115.9 12.1 12.0 10.2 0.1 0.1 103.8 100.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.8 20.8 12.2 12.1 8.9 0.1 0.1 8.6 0.0 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

54.6 54.6 12.8 11.9 7.8 0.9 0.9 41.9 41.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

1.9 0.8

1.1 0.1

0.8 6.1

2.2 1.6

1.8 1.1

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.1 2.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.6 5.6 3.9 2.8 2.6 1.1 1.1 1.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.1 10.1 6.3 3.2 2.1 3.2 2.6 3.7 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 9.9 6.2 3.1 2.2 3.1 1.9 3.7 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.4 12.4 8.1 3.6 2.8 4.5 3.3 4.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.6 11.6 7.7 3.3 2.1 4.4 2.3 3.8 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.1 10.1 5.8 3.2 2.2 2.6 2.0 4.4 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.3 0.1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.4 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.0 6.0 2.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 3.4 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.9 14.9 4.8 1.9 1.3 2.9 2.4 10.1 4.5 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

18.4 18.4 3.7 2.1 1.2 1.6 1.2 14.7 9.4 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.0 17.0 4.5 2.3 1.4 2.3 2.2 12.4 6.4 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.3 0.2

178

GRENADA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 32.3 0.0 54.3

.. 0.0 34.5 0.0 57.3

.. 0.0 33.7 0.0 59.7

.. 0.0 6.3 0.0 78.7

1.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 81.2

0.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 87.5

1.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 89.0

0.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 91.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 4.2 21.8 -2.0 65.6 38.2 -1.2 13.1 -1.7 63.4 45.9 4.0 6.3 0.2 -2.0 -1.1 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

126.4 119.6 2.6

10.9 12.3 3.3

56.0 45.8 2.2

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.9 35.9 7.4 74.5

4.6 16.6 2.4 29.7

2.6 28.2 5.6 52.2

4.5 18.0 7.2 35.7

1.9 19.0 3.0 46.4

3.4 13.0 9.3 42.2

3.5 20.9 5.8 43.6

4.2 15.1 9.6 39.2

0.9 35.9 7.4 74.5

4.6 16.6 2.4 29.7

2.6 28.2 5.6 52.2

3.8 24.4 7.2 45.8

0.9 23.6 3.6 57.9

3.3 24.1 7.2 48.8

3.5 21.2 5.7 44.2

2.4 26.6 8.7 58.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 5.6 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 1.1 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.4 13.1 40.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

7.6 10.0 10.0 14.9

5.0 10.0 10.0 30.7

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

17.2 13.1

13.1 13.0

13.3 12.8

14.0 12.5

13.8 12.1

14.3 11.7

14.1 11.2

122.2 9.2

12.5 4.7

9.0 4.8

9.4 4.8

10.7 4.7

10.7 4.5

11.2 4.2

11.0 3.9

10.8 3.5

7.1 1.7

3.3 1.5

3.3 1.4

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.2

3.8 1.0

3.6 0.9

3.2 0.7

5.5 3.1

5.7 3.3

6.1 3.4

6.9 3.4

6.9 3.3

7.4 3.2

7.4 3.0

7.6 2.8

4.7 8.4

4.0 8.2

3.9 8.0

3.3 7.8

3.1 7.7

3.1 7.5

3.1 7.3

111.4 5.7

Notes: Data source: Data on public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

179

GUATEMALA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,677 2,295 2,189 106 116 266 41 6 35

2,849 2,368 2,241 127 67 414 207 46 161

3,282 2,470 2,328 142 0 812 220 22 199

3,853 2,681 2,540 142 0 1,172 317 14 303

4,289 3,050 2,928 121 0 1,239 374 1 373

4,433 3,200 3,098 102 0 1,233 388 1 387

5,082 3,512 3,427 86 0 1,570 401 0 401

5,532 3,916 3,796 120 0 1,616 414 0 414

35 7 29

264 99 165

257 46 211

224 28 196

149 10 139

134 0 134

134 0 134

131 0 131

294 294 0 202 153 49 177 85 133 116 11 6 44 335 270 60 6

164 164 0 118 106 12 50 4 112 89 7 16 -63 230 195 19 16

200 200 0 211 211 0 142 153 145 113 0 32 -3 357 325 0 32

210 210 0 188 188 0 56 34 202 152 0 50 -146 390 340 0 50

512 512 0 214 214 0 308 10 206 157 0 49 102 420 372 0 49

327 327 0 215 215 0 92 -20 205 171 0 34 -113 420 386 0 34

478 478 0 240 240 0 562 324 221 191 0 30 341 460 430 0 30

675 675 0 289 289 0 419 33 257 222 0 36 162 546 510 0 36

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

229 140 62 0 27 24

175 58 48 0 69 87

170 -11 75 0 106 91

397 22 230 0 146 88

888 298 456 0 134 122

375 112 111 0 152 126

519 238 131 0 150 127

673 386 155 0 132 126

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

91 116 22

49 89 37

-39 113 95

-3 152 248

525 157 205

-82 171 287

10 191 319

160 222 291

20,894 4,814 634 6,472 2,352 -1,253

22,950 5,705 1,600 7,337 2,373 -1,235

24,401 6,404 2,147 7,799 2,925 -1,039

27,132 7,332 2,591 8,975 3,522 -1,188

89.1 20.5 8.7 4.3 1.0 54.8 4.4 28.9 22.2 37.9

77.7 19.3 7.4 3.6 0.9 53.5 3.9 27.8 20.9 41.9

79.4 20.8 7.2 3.4 0.9 57.6 4.5 30.9 18.5 38.1

75.5 20.4 7.4 3.5 0.9 63.7 4.7 29.2 15.7 37.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

10,984 1,191 1 1,457 472 -246

7,494 1,695 119 2,028 362 -213

224.7 24.4 28.1 11.2 1.2 17.6 3.9 10.0 16.4 26.8

168.1 38.0 13.6 6.6 1.5 12.7 2.1 14.5 24.9 36.4

14,484 3,228 358 3,933 783 -572

19,081 4,640 596 5,991 1,806 -1,050

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

101.7 22.7 11.1 4.5 1.0 23.9 2.4 24.7 30.7 30.4

180

83.0 20.2 8.4 4.3 1.1 46.9 3.6 30.4 25.1 38.0

GUATEMALA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,295 2,189 1,180 718 251 461 188 1,009 482 255 106 0 106

2,368 2,241 1,684 1,036 332 648 377 557 190 118 127 0 127

2,470 2,328 1,787 998 367 789 642 541 264 61 142 0 142

2,681 2,540 2,098 1,462 376 635 590 442 245 0 142 0 142

3,050 2,928 2,251 1,626 374 625 578 677 540 0 121 0 121

3,200 3,098 2,453 1,856 371 597 555 644 508 0 102 0 102

3,512 3,427 2,515 1,934 393 581 546 912 777 0 86 0 86

3,916 3,796 2,557 2,046 380 511 489 1,238 1,107 0 120 50 70

225 0 2,188 107

293 0 2,238 130

158 0 2,328 142

296 0 2,540 142

330 0 2,928 121

400 0 3,098 102

428 0 3,427 86

478 0 3,796 120

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

294 289 203 138 11 65 33 86 0 45 5 0 5

164 156 126 68 20 58 57 30 0 14 7 0 7

200 200 128 87 18 41 21 73 59 2 0 0 0

210 210 210 157 9 53 52 0 0 0 0 0 0

512 512 187 179 10 8 8 325 325 0 0 0 0

327 327 327 320 11 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

478 478 178 162 4 16 16 300 300 0 0 0 0

675 625 295 274 2 21 21 330 330 0 50 50 0

49 0

16 0

13 0

51 0

46 0

83 0

45 0

79 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

153 150 71 27 2 44 27 79 10 38 3 0 3

106 103 59 28 6 31 3 44 11 29 3 0 3

211 192 151 92 14 59 23 42 15 17 19 0 19

188 168 136 78 14 58 45 32 31 0 20 0 20

214 194 162 94 16 68 54 32 31 0 20 0 20

215 196 162 102 16 60 52 34 32 0 19 0 19

240 223 191 130 19 61 53 33 32 0 17 0 17

289 273 273 170 23 102 89 0 0 0 16 0 16

13 0

5 0

40 0

13 0

12 0

13 0

18 0

29 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

116 107 53 32 4 21 5 54 19 27 9 0 9

89 79 52 33 4 19 4 27 18 7 10 0 10

113 108 80 52 7 29 16 28 23 3 5 0 5

152 133 110 84 7 26 22 23 22 0 19 0 19

157 150 130 101 7 29 24 20 20 0 8 0 8

171 166 117 95 7 22 19 49 49 0 5 0 5

191 187 111 92 7 20 18 75 75 0 4 0 4

222 214 113 96 8 18 16 101 101 0 8 5 3

11 0

3 0

14 0

21 0

22 0

22 0

19 0

17 0

181

GUATEMALA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.0

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.6

.. 2.5 0.0 0.5 54.8

.. 2.9 0.0 0.2 75.0

3.1 3.4 0.0 0.1 79.3

3.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 80.7

3.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 81.5

3.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 83.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

17 30 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 17 13 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 299 245 178 72 435 177 50 142 56 308 42 36 10 -27 -26 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0

144 92 38

650 562 37

450 419 11

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.9 15.0 4.3 12.1

5.9 18.3 4.7 27.7

4.2 30.7 7.9 47.2

7.2 19.2 4.7 17.3

8.9 14.8 7.8 6.0

4.5 19.6 5.0 35.2

8.0 13.3 7.7 11.2

7.4 26.6 24.6 18.6

7.2 16.3 4.6 15.5

4.9 23.1 6.2 36.6

4.2 30.7 7.9 47.2

7.2 19.2 4.7 17.3

6.8 22.5 4.3 20.8

4.5 19.6 5.0 35.2

5.6 19.8 4.2 27.2

4.4 13.9 3.7 30.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.3 10.0 9.4 3.1

8.1 29.7 29.7 15.7

11.8 8.8 0.0 0.0 10.3 8.2 4.5 0.0 0.0 10.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.0 -6.5 2.1 0.0 0.0 -3.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are as reported by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

182

GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,465 1,302 1,302 0 31 132 56 27 29

2,476 2,253 2,253 0 51 172 55 49 6

3,242 2,987 2,987 0 94 161 82 71 10

3,388 2,940 2,940 0 113 335 118 114 4

3,254 2,844 2,844 0 123 287 111 107 4

3,401 2,972 2,972 0 139 289 110 106 4

3,457 3,154 3,154 0 136 166 110 106 4

3,538 3,188 3,188 0 122 229 111 107 4

205 91 114

190 164 26

371 314 58

566 537 29

552 524 29

554 525 29

555 527 29

560 532 29

109 109 0 46 42 4 84 22 25 19 1 6 59 72 61 5 6

196 196 0 110 96 14 86 0 59 53 2 4 27 169 149 16 4

200 169 31 129 121 9 98 27 49 44 0 5 49 178 164 9 5

70 70 0 98 90 8 -41 -12 57 41 1 15 -97 155 131 9 15

122 95 26 68 60 9 14 -40 37 29 0 7 -23 105 89 9 7

66 49 17 89 79 10 -21 2 36 31 1 3 -57 125 111 11 3

52 52 0 97 84 13 -167 -123 34 30 1 4 -202 131 114 13 4

43 43 0 128 108 19 -22 62 44 40 0 4 -66 172 149 19 4

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

112 66 1 0 45 20

212 100 18 0 93 61

285 49 1 0 235 72

101 -20 10 0 112 51

185 36 2 0 148 53

173 -30 30 0 173 56

215 -32 79 0 168 69

229 -65 100 0 194 72

93 19 0

98 53 61

218 44 23

52 41 8

110 29 46

140 31 1

106 30 79

155 40 0

3,035 759 1 973 168 -140

2,976 854 9 994 209 -60

3,170 820 15 1,051 263 -200

3,599 867 111 1,076 .. -185

3,830 862 42 1,001 .. -162

446.4 111.6 20.4 7.5 1.9 4.9 2.1 9.9 74.9 47.7

381.1 109.4 12.3 4.3 1.2 6.4 2.5 8.8 76.4 48.8

414.6 107.3 15.2 4.4 1.1 7.7 3.0 8.5 76.9 50.2

398.9 96.1 15.1 4.0 1.0 .. .. 4.8 80.6 54.2

410.3 92.4 19.9 5.1 1.2 .. .. 6.5 80.8 54.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

2,669 841 0 1,115 .. -203

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 9.0 62.7 17.5

294.3 92.8 20.0 7.0 2.2 .. .. 6.9 67.7 27.4

3,608 714 1 1,109 87 -216

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

454.3 89.9 25.0 6.8 1.4 2.7 0.9 5.0 75.8 45.0

183

GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,302 1,302 1,099 257 183 842 736 204 0 10 0 0 0

2,253 2,253 2,144 678 602 1,467 1,073 108 0 24 0 0 0

2,987 2,987 2,905 1,460 1,216 1,444 1,241 82 0 25 0 0 0

2,940 2,940 2,911 1,615 1,419 1,296 1,117 29 0 0 0 0 0

2,844 2,844 2,815 1,589 1,425 1,226 1,060 29 0 0 0 0 0

2,972 2,972 2,944 1,708 1,551 1,236 1,063 29 0 0 0 0 0

3,154 3,154 3,125 1,873 1,714 1,253 1,071 29 0 0 0 0 0

3,188 3,188 3,159 1,911 1,795 1,248 1,064 29 0 0 0 0 0

55 117 1,302 0

28 392 2,253 0

0 847 2,987 0

0 982 2,940 0

0 1,003 2,844 0

0 1,096 2,972 0

0 1,212 3,154 0

0 1,287 3,188 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

109 109 87 28 28 60 51 21 0 0 0 0 0

196 196 196 90 85 106 105 0 0 0 0 0 0

169 169 169 161 115 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

70 70 70 70 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

95 95 95 95 91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

49 49 49 49 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

52 52 52 52 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

43 43 43 43 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 22

0 52

0 59

0 29

0 70

0 32

0 33

0 38

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

42 42 39 9 3 29 27 4 0 0 0 0 0

96 96 77 21 6 56 48 19 0 7 0 0 0

121 121 106 35 26 71 60 15 0 0 0 0 0

90 90 90 51 29 39 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 60 59 33 22 27 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 79 36 21 43 41 0 0 0 0 0 0

84 84 84 39 22 45 44 0 0 0 0 0 0

108 108 108 76 27 33 30 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 0

12 1

0 2

0 11

0 8

0 4

0 7

0 7

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

19 19 17 6 1 11 9 2 0 0 0 0 0

53 53 47 12 5 35 23 6 0 5 0 0 0

44 44 43 15 9 28 20 1 0 0 0 0 0

41 41 41 24 13 17 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 29 29 19 12 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 31 31 22 13 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 21 14 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

40 40 40 23 15 17 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 1

2 2

0 6

0 7

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 8

184

GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.1 1.9 0.5 37.8

.. 2.2 1.8 0.6 33.1

.. 3.5 0.9 0.3 48.5

.. 2.8 0.6 0.2 54.1

8.5 2.2 0.6 0.2 56.2

8.8 2.2 0.6 0.2 57.1

9.1 2.2 0.5 0.2 57.8

9.0 2.1 0.6 0.2 58.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

6 110 130 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 94 0 5 0 71 93 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 16 0 3 0 0 15 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 53 0 36 0 0 8 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 209 300 132 -135 -134 84 86 98 -41 14 99 106 -16 -97 -72 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

5 0 3 3 0 3 3 0 31 14 0 0

5 0 2 2 0 3 3 0 28 14 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 6 0 0

147 -21 141

56 -167 168

82 -22 74

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.1 29.1 7.5 53.1

2.6 30.5 8.2 59.5

2.1 21.3 6.8 50.6

1.3 38.1 9.1 73.3

0.8 42.1 10.4 81.3

0.8 47.7 10.3 82.7

1.0 45.4 9.7 78.8

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

3.0 29.7 7.6 54.4

2.6 30.5 8.2 59.5

2.0 25.9 8.5 60.8

1.3 38.1 9.1 73.3

0.8 42.1 10.4 81.3

0.8 47.7 10.3 82.7

1.0 45.4 9.7 78.8

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.5 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

116 45

108 42

103 39

103 37

106 35

109 33

110 30

110 28

116 45

108 42

103 39

103 37

106 35

109 33

110 30

110 28

47 24

44 22

42 21

40 20

41 19

40 17

37 16

39 15

69 21

64 20

61 18

63 17

66 16

69 15

72 14

71 13

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

185

GUINEA-BISSAU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

318.4 275.0 275.0 0.0 3.1 40.3 6.0 4.2 1.8

692.1 630.4 630.4 0.0 5.3 56.5 29.9 27.5 2.4

898.3 797.7 797.7 0.0 5.9 94.6 88.6 82.6 6.1

804.4 715.5 715.5 0.0 24.7 64.2 51.2 51.1 0.1

668.3 627.2 627.2 0.0 23.2 17.9 7.8 7.8 0.0

699.4 662.3 662.3 0.0 23.4 13.7 7.7 7.7 0.0

745.1 712.5 712.5 0.0 20.5 12.1 8.1 8.1 0.0

765.0 737.9 737.9 0.0 15.8 11.2 8.2 8.2 0.0

31.3 23.1 8.1

112.8 107.0 5.9

252.0 221.1 30.9

114.7 114.1 0.6

27.5 27.5 0.0

26.7 26.7 0.0

27.4 27.4 0.0

27.7 27.7 0.0

60.6 60.6 0.0 3.5 2.6 0.9 45.0 -12.1 5.9 2.2 0.2 3.4 39.1 9.4 4.9 1.1 3.4

36.5 36.5 0.0 2.3 2.3 0.0 45.7 11.6 6.1 3.4 0.0 2.7 39.6 8.4 5.7 0.0 2.7

23.5 21.1 2.4 9.3 8.1 1.1 13.2 -1.0 6.1 5.7 0.0 0.4 7.2 15.3 13.8 1.2 0.4

22.2 13.6 8.6 9.6 9.4 0.2 22.5 10.0 10.3 9.6 0.3 0.5 12.2 20.0 19.0 0.5 0.5

5.9 5.9 0.0 13.4 13.4 0.0 -10.4 -2.9 9.9 9.2 0.3 0.5 -20.3 23.3 22.5 0.3 0.5

6.0 6.0 0.0 7.3 5.7 1.5 -5.3 -4.1 3.8 3.2 0.2 0.3 -9.1 11.0 8.9 1.8 0.3

19.5 19.5 0.0 10.7 5.8 4.8 6.8 -2.0 4.5 4.1 0.2 0.2 2.3 15.2 9.9 5.0 0.2

30.8 30.8 0.0 34.9 29.5 5.3 -5.1 -1.1 10.1 9.9 0.1 0.1 -15.2 44.9 39.4 5.5 0.1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

89.0 58.0 1.4 0.0 29.6 14.9

96.4 34.2 2.0 0.0 60.2 21.4

67.1 13.0 0.0 0.0 54.1 46.5

55.3 4.2 0.7 0.0 50.4 13.0

29.9 -7.5 0.4 0.0 37.0 15.3

43.3 0.3 3.5 0.6 38.9 17.5

127.1 13.6 4.0 0.3 109.2 18.9

46.4 1.3 5.0 0.0 40.0 16.7

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

86.7 2.2 0.0

93.0 3.4 0.0

61.5 5.7 0.0

45.7 9.6 0.0

20.8 9.2 0.0

39.4 3.2 0.7

122.8 4.1 0.2

36.2 9.9 0.0

203.1 .. 2.0 .. 66.7 ..

183.0 77.5 10.0 104.6 69.5 -11.1

194.9 79.6 18.0 96.0 102.7 -1.2

228.3 94.4 23.0 112.4 32.9 -0.3

269.5 .. 23.0 .. 73.1 ..

.. 396.1 .. .. 5.1 8.3 .. 8.0 75.4 48.6

862.7 365.1 30.1 12.8 5.4 10.4 8.0 2.7 85.1 54.6

879.1 358.9 13.9 4.7 1.9 14.7 12.8 2.0 86.8 55.8

789.5 326.3 16.1 4.7 2.0 4.4 3.5 1.6 89.5 58.6

.. 283.9 .. .. 3.7 9.6 .. 1.5 92.6 62.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

159.5 18.1 0.0 90.5 .. -75.8

233.4 27.1 1.0 110.5 18.2 -45.3

1,759.1 199.6 52.0 32.5 3.7 .. .. 12.6 48.3 33.8

2,554.0 296.6 31.1 22.5 2.6 2.6 2.0 8.2 56.7 39.5

235.9 29.6 0.0 110.3 20.3 -35.2

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

3,035.7 380.7 51.9 20.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 10.5 62.8 41.1

186

GUINEA-BISSAU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

275.0 275.0 235.0 107.6 86.6 127.4 67.1 40.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

630.4 630.4 597.4 273.3 244.3 324.1 148.2 32.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

797.7 797.7 766.2 369.6 340.0 396.7 224.6 31.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

715.5 715.5 714.7 390.5 377.4 324.2 229.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

627.2 627.2 627.1 364.7 356.2 262.4 212.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

662.3 662.3 662.3 390.6 382.7 271.7 224.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

712.5 712.5 712.5 436.4 429.0 276.1 237.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

737.9 737.9 737.9 477.6 471.2 260.3 237.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 44.3 275.0 0.0

0.0 145.5 630.4 0.0

0.0 209.9 797.7 0.0

0.0 227.6 715.5 0.0

0.0 219.9 627.2 0.0

0.0 237.1 662.3 0.0

0.0 267.3 712.5 0.0

0.0 300.5 737.9 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

60.6 60.6 40.2 21.2 15.6 19.1 4.5 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

36.5 36.5 36.5 30.3 30.3 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

21.1 21.1 21.1 18.8 18.5 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 14.6

0.0 15.5

0.0 8.8

0.0 13.6

0.0 3.9

0.0 3.8

0.0 11.7

0.0 24.9

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.6 2.6 2.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.3 2.3 2.3 1.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.1 8.1 8.0 7.8 4.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.4 9.4 9.4 2.7 2.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.4 13.4 13.4 4.1 3.0 9.2 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.7 5.7 5.7 1.6 0.4 4.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.8 5.8 5.8 1.8 0.4 4.1 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

29.5 29.5 29.5 2.4 1.2 27.1 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.9

0.0 2.4

0.0 1.5

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.2 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.4 3.4 3.1 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.7 5.7 5.6 4.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.6 9.6 9.6 1.7 1.7 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.2 9.2 9.2 1.0 0.9 8.1 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 3.2 3.2 0.6 0.5 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.1 4.1 4.1 1.5 1.4 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 9.9 9.9 2.4 2.3 7.5 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.4

0.0 1.1

0.0 1.6

0.0 1.6

0.0 0.8

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.9

0.0 1.6

187

GUINEA-BISSAU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 9.8 36.5

.. 0.0 0.0 8.6 27.3

.. 0.0 0.0 6.6 38.1

.. 0.0 0.0 12.7 37.9

10.4 0.0 0.0 10.6 43.8

11.4 0.0 0.0 10.6 43.3

12.3 0.0 0.0 9.1 43.6

12.5 0.0 0.0 7.5 45.5

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 16.1 13.7 0.0 44.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 29.3 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 29.2 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 15.3 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 15.3 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.5 11.0 92.0 70.7 0.0 0.6 3.7 32.5 32.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 64.9 98.9 45.8 -129.3 -136.1 45.0 45.7 13.2 22.5 -10.4 10.7 35.1 11.3 -20.3 -16.1 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

5.9 0.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 19.6 6.3 0.0 0.0

6.2 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 22.2 5.4 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 1.2 0.0 0.0

31.1 -5.3 44.7

45.7 6.8 40.7

19.8 -5.1 22.2

2.9 15.8 4.2 41.4

2.2 28.1 10.4 61.8

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.9 37.9 9.8 77.6

0.8 44.8 9.8 81.6

0.8 41.2 10.1 80.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

2.9 15.8 4.2 41.4

2.2 28.1 10.4 61.8

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.9 37.9 9.8 77.6

0.8 44.8 9.8 81.6

0.8 41.2 10.1 80.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

32.0 10.4

22.9 9.8

21.8 9.4

22.2 9.1

20.9 8.8

21.5 8.5

21.4 8.2

21.9 8.0

32.0 10.4

22.9 9.8

21.8 9.4

22.2 9.1

20.9 8.8

21.5 8.5

21.4 8.2

21.9 8.0

20.4 6.7

10.7 6.1

8.8 5.8

8.4 5.5

6.8 5.2

6.3 5.0

5.3 4.8

4.5 4.7

11.6 3.7

12.2 3.7

13.0 3.7

13.8 3.6

14.1 3.6

15.2 3.5

16.2 3.4

17.4 3.3

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

188

GUYANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,521 811 811 0 91 618 76 39 37

1,960 1,773 1,773 0 113 75 63 40 23

2,116 1,794 1,794 0 172 150 133 114 19

1,364 1,128 1,124 4 117 119 67 59 8

1,310 1,099 1,095 4 98 114 78 58 20

1,373 1,149 1,145 3 96 128 84 61 22

1,437 1,220 1,217 3 95 122 91 64 27

1,331 1,142 1,140 2 88 101 101 72 29

184 108 76

184 80 104

114 76 38

65 51 15

60 46 15

64 49 15

64 48 16

71 54 17

63 63 0 17 16 1 145 99 55 13 3 39 89 72 29 4 39

264 159 104 175 69 107 256 167 120 73 40 7 135 295 142 146 7

59 45 14 74 50 24 -8 7 35 31 3 1 -43 109 82 26 1

73 64 9 39 23 17 21 -13 30 26 1 3 -9 69 49 17 3

66 66 0 25 20 5 25 -16 20 17 1 2 5 45 37 6 2

48 41 7 34 25 9 22 8 30 28 0 1 -8 64 53 9 1

78 69 8 36 28 8 28 -13 22 21 0 0 7 58 49 9 0

83 74 9 35 29 6 17 -31 14 13 0 0 2 49 42 7 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

57 47 2 0 8 4

165 91 0 0 74 9

90 -5 74 0 21 16

147 41 67 0 39 18

139 46 56 0 37 21

77 16 44 0 17 21

73 41 26 0 5 33

149 45 30 0 74 25

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

42 13 2

92 73 0

58 31 0

115 26 6

117 17 5

45 28 4

50 21 2

133 13 3

660 711 27 813 305 -82

637 690 22 807 287 -96

667 721 51 776 284 -66

691 769 99 760 276 -47

751 852 100 829 232 -30

191.9 206.6 9.7 4.2 4.5 22.3 4.5 8.7 72.7 43.9

190.0 205.7 6.6 2.9 3.1 21.9 4.3 8.7 73.8 48.6

190.3 205.8 8.9 4.2 4.5 20.7 4.4 9.3 74.1 50.1

187.0 208.0 7.5 2.8 3.1 19.2 4.4 8.5 75.9 54.1

156.2 177.2 5.8 1.7 1.9 17.4 3.4 7.6 80.1 63.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

385 262 0 353 6 -97

275 .. 0 .. 29 ..

567 641 2 838 269 -135

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

580.3 395.1 27.7 21.2 14.4 0.4 0.2 40.7 26.4 17.7

.. 712.5 .. .. 43.7 1.5 .. 3.8 56.8 23.9

329.9 373.1 17.0 5.4 6.2 12.7 3.9 7.1 60.5 30.2

189

GUYANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

811 811 615 269 160 346 241 196 6 113 0 0 0

1,773 1,773 1,601 468 291 1,134 822 172 0 104 0 0 0

1,794 1,794 1,709 639 498 1,070 782 86 29 37 0 0 0

1,128 1,124 1,079 599 553 480 440 45 27 6 4 0 4

1,099 1,095 1,044 637 595 407 372 52 27 14 4 0 4

1,149 1,145 1,093 687 646 406 370 53 28 13 3 0 3

1,220 1,217 1,164 778 742 386 349 54 29 13 3 0 3

1,142 1,140 1,123 851 822 272 245 17 0 4 2 0 2

65 27 811 0

59 93 1,773 0

35 203 1,794 0

8 180 1,124 4

5 178 1,095 4

3 196 1,145 3

1 232 1,217 3

0 246 1,140 2

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

63 63 60 28 15 32 25 3 0 0 0 0 0

159 159 153 122 109 31 19 6 0 0 0 0 0

45 45 45 41 41 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

64 64 64 64 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

66 66 66 65 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

41 41 41 39 37 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

69 69 69 69 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

74 74 74 74 74 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 1

0 54

0 18

0 6

0 7

0 6

0 20

0 7

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

16 16 8 3 0 5 3 8 0 0 0 0 0

69 69 46 42 6 4 0 22 1 8 0 0 0

50 50 40 24 6 16 5 10 0 2 0 0 0

23 22 22 18 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 20 19 16 8 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 24 14 5 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 27 17 8 10 10 1 0 1 0 0 0

29 28 28 19 10 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 0

31 0

6 1

3 1

3 1

3 0

2 1

1 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

13 13 8 7 1 1 1 5 0 2 0 0 0

73 73 64 58 8 6 3 9 0 5 0 0 0

31 31 30 18 6 12 8 1 0 1 0 0 0

26 26 26 10 6 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 17 17 10 7 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 26 9 6 17 17 2 2 0 0 0 0

21 20 19 10 7 9 9 2 1 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 10 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0

31 0

3 1

1 1

1 1

0 1

0 1

0 2

190

GUYANA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.3 11.1 0.0 56.9

.. 0.3 10.4 0.1 68.0

.. 0.2 9.1 0.1 64.9

.. 0.0 5.6 0.0 69.3

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

11 474 1 0 0 320 0 0 11 89 1 0 0 88 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 38 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 0 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 213 303 67 -48 145 256 -8 21 36 43 -44 -61 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

4.8 0.0 5.3 0.0 66.7

5.5 0.0 5.5 0.0 66.8

6.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 69.2

4.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 73.4

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 5 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 115 0

-54 25 -15

62 22 38

65 28 48

-106 17 24

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.5 25.8 7.5 32.9

1.3 39.7 9.9 74.9

3.0 37.1 9.9 60.5

2.0 40.0 10.5 69.6

0.5 6.8 0.7 28.4

2.0 39.7 10.5 69.8

3.0 29.7 8.5 56.0

1.3 36.4 9.8 71.8

5.3 26.4 7.7 34.0

1.3 39.7 9.9 74.9

1.5 38.7 10.4 73.3

2.0 40.0 10.5 69.6

0.5 6.8 0.7 28.4

2.0 39.7 10.5 69.8

3.0 29.7 8.5 56.0

1.3 36.4 9.8 71.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.1 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

39 23

43 23

43 23

40 23

39 22

37 22

42 21

44 20

39 23

42 23

43 23

39 23

39 22

37 22

42 21

44 20

12 8

14 7

14 7

14 6

11 6

8 5

10 5

11 5

27 15

29 16

29 17

25 17

28 17

28 16

32 16

33 15

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004. It includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004. Some loans contracted in 1992 were reclassified as bonds in 2004. Bonds totaling US$28.8 million were transferred to domestic debt in 2004.

191

HAITI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

749 554 554 0 96 99 11 2 10

911 772 772 0 38 101 24 14 10

816 761 761 0 29 26 1 1 0

1,169 1,040 1,040 0 39 90 1 1 0

1,253 1,028 1,028 0 39 185 4 4 0

1,248 1,063 1,063 0 31 154 8 8 0

1,309 1,174 1,174 0 18 117 21 21 0

1,225 1,186 1,186 0 11 28 28 28 0

18 2 16

43 14 29

1 1 0

2 2 0

9 9 0

17 17 0

38 38 0

55 55 0

66 66 0 25 13 12 49 8 22 8 7 8 27 47 21 19 8

44 38 5 20 8 12 39 16 15 6 3 7 24 36 14 15 7

128 103 25 65 33 32 76 13 32 25 5 2 44 96 57 37 2

51 51 0 24 18 6 21 -6 20 15 1 5 1 44 33 7 5

14 14 0 11 11 0 95 92 14 10 1 3 80 26 21 1 3

4 4 0 16 7 9 -47 -35 12 8 1 3 -59 28 15 10 3

36 36 0 36 21 15 -51 -51 16 14 0 1 -67 52 35 15 1

21 21 0 87 80 7 -162 -96 46 45 0 1 -208 133 125 7 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

119 53 5 0 61 42

95 30 0 0 65 66

590 71 7 0 512 112

137 33 13 0 91 91

81 2 4 0 75 94

84 -3 6 0 81 78

117 14 8 0 95 87

134 -58 7 0 185 89

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

105 8 7

89 6 0

561 25 4

122 15 0

71 10 0

76 8 0

103 14 0

89 45 0

3,710 1,082 578 1,360 183 -85

3,598 1,068 624 1,307 142 -95

3,474 1,098 676 1,246 82 -48

2,903 1,280 811 1,389 63 -13

3,613 .. 876 .. 115 ..

108.1 31.5 4.1 1.9 0.6 15.6 1.6 7.7 88.8 77.2

117.3 34.8 2.4 1.3 0.4 11.3 1.3 14.8 82.0 71.4

113.7 35.9 2.5 1.0 0.3 6.6 0.8 12.3 85.2 74.7

102.2 45.1 4.0 1.2 0.5 4.8 0.5 8.9 86.8 74.7

.. 33.9 .. .. 1.3 9.4 .. 2.2 93.8 80.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,990 438 96 582 12 -95

2,836 325 61 540 10 -22

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

171.0 37.6 10.8 5.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 13.3 62.9 40.7

280.2 32.1 11.0 4.7 0.5 1.1 0.2 11.1 79.1 53.7

3,048 192 109 832 199 -87

4. DEBT INDICATORS 424.1 26.8 50.1 16.6 1.0 24.4 2.9 3.2 93.1 74.8

192

HAITI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

554 554 487 305 305 182 167 67 0 43 0 0 0

772 772 725 489 489 236 231 47 0 47 0 0 0

761 761 761 610 610 150 149 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,040 1,040 1,040 903 903 136 136 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,028 1,028 1,028 895 895 134 133 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,063 1,063 1,063 932 932 131 131 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,174 1,174 1,174 978 978 196 158 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,186 1,186 1,186 987 987 199 162 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 174 549 5

0 324 772 0

0 389 761 0

0 480 1,040 0

0 467 1,028 0

0 501 1,063 0

0 518 1,174 0

0 504 1,186 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

66 66 66 35 35 31 31 0 0 0 0 0 0

38 38 38 27 27 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

103 103 103 103 103 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

51 51 51 51 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

36 36 36 36 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 21 21 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 20

0 14

0 49

0 8

0 1

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

13 13 9 1 1 8 5 4 0 1 0 0 0

8 8 8 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 33 33 29 29 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 14 14 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 11 11 8 8 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 7 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 21 21 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

80 80 80 75 75 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 1

0 10

0 7

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 40

8 8 7 3 3 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 25 24 24 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 15 9 9 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 3 3 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 13 13 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

45 45 45 41 41 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 10

0 4

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 16

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

193

HAITI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 76.4

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.7

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.3

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.0

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.1

2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 82.8

3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.2

3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.7

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

83 95 -14

-4 -47 37

60 -51 22

-83 -162 30

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0 0 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 16 0 12 0 8 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 51 81 87 -16 49 39 76 21 4 23 -10 -33 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS 1.9 42.4 7.1 68.3

1.4 38.9 10.4 75.0

1.2 39.9 10.4 76.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.9 42.4 7.1 68.3

1.4 38.9 10.4 75.0

1.2 39.9 10.4 76.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

33 18

39 19

43 19

46 20

47 19

50 18

51 18

51 17

33 18

39 19

43 19

46 20

47 19

50 18

51 18

51 17

8 5

8 4

8 4

9 4

9 4

10 4

9 3

10 3

26 13

31 14

35 15

37 15

38 15

41 15

41 14

42 14

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt as of end-September 2004 are based on reports provided by the country and World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

194

HONDURAS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,730 2,280 2,139 141 147 303 44 8 36

3,718 3,487 3,420 66 32 199 89 34 55

4,791 4,310 4,187 123 99 382 63 31 31

5,570 4,981 4,421 560 216 374 35 9 26

5,050 4,501 3,995 506 220 329 10 2 8

5,376 4,655 4,188 468 197 524 45 34 12

5,617 4,981 4,571 411 172 464 62 50 12

6,332 5,692 5,124 568 195 444 53 43 10

241 18 223

190 63 128

197 108 90

72 15 56

21 0 21

74 45 29

164 115 49

224 119 105

348 348 0 101 82 19 337 90 127 100 11 16 209 228 182 30 16

457 429 29 211 176 35 129 -117 178 157 6 15 -49 389 333 41 15

379 349 31 376 332 44 66 62 231 209 5 18 -165 607 541 48 18

618 596 21 259 254 5 296 -63 131 107 4 20 165 390 361 9 20

402 381 21 249 241 7 134 -20 94 75 4 16 39 343 316 11 16

288 288 0 289 254 35 158 159 108 95 2 11 50 397 349 37 11

310 310 0 313 272 41 -79 -76 102 92 1 9 -181 414 363 42 9

619 588 30 216 206 9 392 -11 118 106 1 11 275 333 312 10 11

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

419 266 28 0 126 44

507 252 44 0 211 93

190 17 50 0 123 85

810 342 282 0 186 123

529 140 193 0 197 226

376 34 175 0 167 126

413 38 247 0 128 101

906 382 293 0 231 116

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

261 100 58

278 157 72

-59 209 40

634 107 70

349 75 105

174 95 108

152 92 169

591 106 209

5,808 3,019 416 3,519 1,319 -262

6,218 3,048 540 3,658 1,421 -339

6,308 3,277 718 3,678 1,531 -264

6,602 3,602 867 4,037 1,439 -314

7,074 4,250 1,142 4,758 1,980 -413

184.5 95.9 12.9 4.3 2.3 23.7 4.5 6.7 52.6 49.1

165.7 81.2 11.3 3.1 1.5 28.1 4.7 6.5 57.9 50.2

164.0 85.2 12.1 3.3 1.7 28.5 5.0 9.7 59.1 49.6

155.9 85.1 11.5 2.8 1.5 25.6 4.3 8.3 64.1 52.2

149.0 89.5 7.8 2.8 1.7 31.3 5.0 7.0 65.9 54.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

3,477 924 2 1,290 111 -220

2,848 1,103 63 1,384 47 -51

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

295.4 78.5 24.7 13.8 3.7 4.1 1.0 11.1 31.5 38.3

337.0 130.5 35.3 16.1 6.2 1.3 0.4 5.4 37.4 42.5

3,698 1,787 124 2,111 270 -201

4. DEBT INDICATORS 268.1 129.6 34.0 12.9 6.3 5.6 1.5 8.0 46.5 44.9

195

HONDURAS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,280 2,139 1,666 1,046 446 620 413 473 0 341 141 0 141

3,487 3,420 2,978 1,581 536 1,396 855 442 0 204 66 0 66

4,310 4,187 3,823 2,153 1,036 1,670 1,192 364 139 115 123 0 123

4,981 4,421 4,313 2,732 1,766 1,581 1,164 107 0 71 560 0 560

4,501 3,995 3,903 2,536 1,898 1,366 1,024 92 0 59 506 0 506

4,655 4,188 4,094 2,666 2,066 1,429 1,112 93 0 61 468 0 468

4,981 4,571 4,477 2,932 2,361 1,545 1,236 94 0 64 411 0 411

5,692 5,124 5,025 3,423 2,883 1,602 1,288 99 0 70 568 0 568

369 81 1,982 298

558 77 3,313 173

443 386 4,164 147

151 838 4,401 580

127 901 3,993 507

105 1,014 4,186 469

85 1,143 4,569 412

70 1,310 5,123 569

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

348 336 284 161 43 124 65 51 0 5 12 0 12

429 421 364 190 54 174 88 57 0 22 8 0 8

349 287 258 209 132 49 45 29 0 26 62 0 62

596 412 409 372 113 36 24 4 0 1 184 0 184

381 264 260 219 216 41 29 4 0 4 117 0 117

288 164 164 127 118 37 37 1 0 1 123 0 123

310 202 202 159 152 43 43 0 0 0 108 0 108

588 348 333 293 280 39 38 15 0 15 240 0 240

45 1

82 0

7 77

0 38

0 98

0 51

0 45

0 125

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

82 67 54 35 4 19 8 12 0 6 15 0 15

176 151 143 137 16 6 2 8 0 4 25 0 25

332 293 266 158 22 108 50 27 13 6 39 0 39

254 88 87 86 22 1 0 1 0 1 166 0 166

241 70 51 43 15 8 4 19 0 19 171 0 171

254 88 87 68 17 19 15 0 0 0 166 0 166

272 106 106 95 32 11 10 1 0 1 165 0 165

206 118 112 89 39 22 11 6 0 6 89 0 89

13 1

94 2

58 2

27 2

5 3

10 6

21 9

15 12

100 93 62 46 6 16 3 31 0 24 8 0 8

157 155 150 141 11 8 1 6 0 5 1 0 1

209 204 184 103 14 81 35 20 7 7 5 0 5

107 76 75 67 21 8 5 0 0 0 31 0 31

75 51 50 44 14 6 3 1 0 1 24 0 24

95 77 76 57 17 19 16 0 0 0 18 0 18

92 79 78 60 24 18 15 0 0 0 13 0 13

106 95 95 61 30 34 30 0 0 0 11 0 11

22 1

96 1

38 3

15 6

13 6

10 7

8 8

5 9

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

196

HONDURAS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.4 1.2 1.5 50.6

.. 8.4 0.9 2.1 45.2

.. 9.3 0.6 1.5 48.2

.. 8.2 0.4 0.9 66.5

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 308 25 181 0 0 0 0 0 151 17 134 0 68 7 103 0 83 9 31 0 140 8 47 0 78 4 38 0 62 4 9 0 10 10 14 0 11 0 5 0 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 445 332 96 52 337 129 66 296 59 48 -74 -143 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

5.9 9.7 0.0 0.1 65.1

6.4 9.7 0.0 0.2 65.6

7.1 9.3 0.0 0.1 66.2

7.1 7.9 0.0 0.1 68.0

163 0 117 107 10 46 40 6 52 23 13 13

25 0 17 15 2 6 5 1 30 11 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0

82 0 59 52 7 23 20 3 42 19 0 0

-520 134 -124

326 158 174

241 -79 222

715 392 102

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

6.4 24.3 5.6 29.0

6.5 21.2 5.9 26.5

2.3 29.8 7.3 58.1

5.1 30.9 19.1 42.3

1.6 37.1 9.4 71.5

1.8 39.4 10.4 71.3

2.1 25.3 6.7 55.6

1.2 36.1 9.6 73.6

5.6 28.2 6.6 36.6

6.1 22.7 6.5 29.3

2.1 29.8 7.5 59.6

5.1 30.9 19.1 42.3

1.6 37.1 9.4 71.5

1.8 39.4 10.4 71.3

2.1 25.3 6.7 55.6

1.2 36.1 9.6 73.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.5 7.3 2.8 31.6

9.2 9.9 7.5 3.6 0.0 10.5 7.1 29.8 7.5 0.0 2.0 0.6 2.3 3.0 0.0 2.0 -0.8 16.6 24.4 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

411 137

331 135

283 126

247 117

242 110

235 103

227 96

224 89

275 118

208 120

208 115

189 109

197 104

198 98

198 93

196 87

115 40

103 43

101 41

85 38

90 36

87 33

83 31

83 28

160 77

105 77

107 74

104 71

108 68

111 65

114 62

114 59

136 20

123 15

75 11

58 8

44 6

38 4

29 3

28 2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public, private nonguaranteed and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

197

HUNGARY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

13,957 9,967 9,967 0 971 3,019 0 0 0

21,201 17,931 17,931 0 330 2,941 0 0 0

31,650 28,063 23,974 4,089 385 3,203 0 0 0

29,520 25,368 14,355 11,014 0 4,152 0 0 0

30,305 25,682 12,697 12,985 0 4,623 0 0 0

34,958 29,289 13,551 15,738 0 5,668 0 0 0

47,376 38,360 16,343 22,018 0 9,016 0 0 0

63,159 50,829 20,725 30,103 0 12,330 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

5 0 5

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

4,513 4,513 0 2,670 2,581 90 1,884 42 1,019 825 82 112 865 3,689 3,405 172 112

2,455 2,282 173 2,546 2,216 330 -457 -366 1,678 1,528 35 115 -2,135 4,224 3,745 364 115

6,887 6,887 0 4,911 4,117 793 2,783 806 2,109 1,875 60 174 674 7,019 5,992 853 174

6,283 6,283 0 6,443 6,443 0 449 609 1,495 1,325 0 170 -1,045 7,938 7,768 0 170

13,455 13,455 0 12,275 12,275 0 1,651 471 1,453 1,287 0 166 197 13,729 13,562 0 166

13,056 13,056 0 13,560 13,560 0 542 1,046 1,230 1,100 0 130 -688 14,790 14,660 0 130

17,510 17,510 0 13,736 13,736 0 6,294 2,520 1,447 1,247 0 200 4,846 15,183 14,983 0 200

26,584 26,584 0 15,329 15,329 0 14,569 3,314 1,827 1,552 0 275 12,742 17,156 16,881 0 275

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

1,932 1,932 0 0 0 0

69 66 0 0 3 0

7,545 2,770 4,804 -62 33 158

2,388 -160 2,770 -369 147 39

5,445 1,180 3,944 134 187 35

2,497 -503 3,013 -137 125 39

6,419 3,774 2,177 269 199 52

17,608 11,255 4,608 1,491 254 49

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,107 825 0

-1,496 1,528 37

5,491 1,875 180

-960 1,325 2,023

1,820 1,287 2,338

-1,781 1,100 3,178

1,575 1,247 3,597

10,652 1,552 5,404

48,981 39,462 296 43,020 10,755 -3,205

61,980 43,485 279 48,630 10,383 -4,693

78,991 53,585 295 61,444 12,780 -7,231

94,616 68,212 307 77,345 15,951 -8,842

76.8 61.9 34.8 3.7 3.0 35.5 3.0 15.3 0.4 4.5

80.4 56.4 34.0 2.8 2.0 29.7 2.6 16.2 0.3 4.8

88.4 60.0 28.3 2.7 1.8 27.0 2.5 19.0 0.4 3.0

92.6 66.8 25.2 2.7 1.9 25.3 2.5 19.5 0.3 3.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

19,756 9,395 0 9,915 2,914 -455

31,601 12,315 0 12,724 1,185 379

148.6 70.6 39.3 10.8 5.2 20.9 3.5 21.6 5.5 3.0

172.2 67.1 34.3 13.6 5.3 5.6 1.1 13.9 0.2 11.8

42,966 20,754 152 22,600 12,017 -1,650

44,106 35,881 281 40,189 11,217 -4,004

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

152.5 73.7 33.8 10.2 4.9 38.0 6.4 10.1 1.3 11.1

198

82.3 66.9 22.1 4.2 3.4 38.0 3.3 14.1 1.0 4.8

HUNGARY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

9,967 9,967 1,328 421 0 907 768 8,639 601 6,446 0 0 0

17,931 17,931 2,656 2,497 13 160 19 15,275 4,645 9,642 0 0 0

28,063 23,974 4,459 3,511 0 947 415 19,516 15,814 3,372 4,089 0 4,089

25,368 14,355 1,948 1,424 0 524 285 12,407 10,652 1,741 11,014 188 10,826

25,682 12,697 1,669 1,367 0 302 112 11,027 10,079 949 12,985 184 12,801

29,289 13,551 1,882 1,666 0 216 95 11,669 10,601 1,068 15,738 199 15,539

38,360 16,343 1,705 1,410 0 295 203 14,638 12,385 1,758 22,018 255 21,763

50,829 20,725 2,263 1,982 0 281 197 18,462 16,038 1,891 30,103 467 29,636

372 0 9,967 0

1,512 0 17,931 0

2,218 0 23,756 4,306

582 0 13,874 11,495

564 0 12,261 13,421

517 0 12,928 16,361

253 0 15,394 22,967

220 0 18,815 32,014

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4,513 4,513 269 191 0 77 13 4,244 495 3,173 0 0 0

2,282 2,282 669 654 0 15 2 1,614 940 574 0 0 0

6,887 4,150 688 484 0 204 204 3,462 3,102 343 2,737 0 2,737

6,283 1,115 135 70 0 65 34 980 670 310 5,168 0 5,168

13,455 1,440 77 65 0 12 12 1,363 1,299 64 12,015 0 12,015

13,056 693 240 238 0 2 2 453 360 93 12,364 0 12,364

17,510 3,348 52 32 0 19 19 3,296 2,293 560 14,162 0 14,162

26,584 5,800 519 519 0 0 0 5,280 4,776 505 20,784 365 20,419

162 0

268 0

188 0

38 0

12 0

1 0

0 0

3 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,581 2,581 43 0 0 43 11 2,537 0 2,260 0 0 0

2,216 2,216 145 125 0 19 0 2,072 19 1,894 0 0 0

4,117 3,081 819 723 0 96 14 2,262 982 1,094 1,036 0 1,036

6,443 2,512 343 130 0 213 184 2,169 1,847 307 3,931 0 3,931

12,275 2,280 280 80 0 200 170 2,000 1,205 782 9,995 0 9,995

13,560 1,463 248 119 0 129 36 1,215 1,103 112 12,097 0 12,097

13,736 2,893 562 491 0 71 23 2,331 2,228 103 10,843 0 10,843

15,329 2,600 117 83 0 34 21 2,483 2,113 369 12,729 152 12,577

0 0

108 0

251 0

95 0

22 0

64 0

281 0

43 0

825 825 57 27 0 30 18 768 6 693 0 0 0

1,528 1,528 184 175 1 9 1 1,344 241 1,034 0 0 0

1,875 1,708 303 241 0 62 14 1,405 1,129 241 166 0 166

1,325 943 133 95 0 38 24 810 726 83 382 18 364

1,287 846 117 92 0 25 11 729 639 91 441 17 424

1,100 693 98 79 0 19 10 595 544 51 408 18 390

1,247 704 110 89 0 20 14 594 537 53 543 22 522

1,552 716 83 70 0 13 8 632 565 56 836 23 813

25 0

106 0

160 0

42 0

35 0

32 0

38 0

12 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

199

HUNGARY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 17.0 1.2 4.6 29.2

.. 25.4 0.3 3.9 18.5

.. 34.5 0.6 2.7 10.7

.. 26.4 0.7 0.6 23.3

55.1 22.8 0.8 0.6 19.2

62.8 18.9 0.8 0.6 15.6

74.7 17.5 0.0 0.5 6.5

76.5 12.2 4.7 0.4 5.7

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,964 805 3,346 -354 784 1,884 -457 2,783 449 1,651 463 1,113 638 -1,113 -849 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4,653 542 1,637

12,419 6,294 2,057

15,782 14,569 1,043

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.4 9.1 5.8 7.4

8.9 9.9 5.1 5.0

6.4 10.4 9.1 21.2

5.2 5.8 4.7 18.2

5.2 11.8 9.5 29.7

3.8 8.8 4.3 26.5

3.9 7.9 6.8 30.0

3.7 7.7 6.7 28.5

8.6 13.1 4.4 6.7

8.4 12.3 5.1 7.6

7.3 13.3 4.0 13.3

4.8 11.9 8.5 31.2

5.3 14.1 4.3 26.9

3.8 18.1 4.1 37.2

4.8 15.0 3.0 28.4

2.7 15.1 4.2 42.3

8.4 9.4 6.3 5.3 5.2 3.9 8.7 7.2 9.9 5.3 11.4 5.0 6.0 5.0 9.9 4.4 10.4 4.5 7.5 2.0 22.4 17.0 30.2 22.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.8 7.2 7.2 30.2

3.7 7.6 6.7 28.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

7,213 1,663

5,479 1,362

4,532 1,208

5,891 1,087

6,000 955

4,231 798

3,972 663

1,939 537

271 92

255 83

239 85

386 79

219 58

201 48

149 40

120 34

48 9

44 8

39 6

34 5

34 5

26 4

7 3

7 2

223 83

212 76

200 79

353 73

186 54

174 44

142 37

113 32

6,942 1,571

5,224 1,279

4,293 1,123

5,505 1,008

5,780 897

4,030 750

3,823 623

1,819 503

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

200

INDIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

40,951 31,761 30,264 1,497 4,832 4,358 0 0 0

83,628 72,462 70,974 1,488 2,623 8,544 0 0 0

94,464 87,040 80,422 6,618 2,374 5,049 0 0 0

99,098 95,636 80,050 15,586 0 3,462 0 0 0

97,517 94,775 78,818 15,957 0 2,742 0 0 0

104,836 100,743 82,256 18,487 0 4,093 0 0 0

112,630 107,590 85,578 22,012 0 5,040 0 0 0

122,723 115,199 88,699 26,499 0 7,524 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

5,003 5,003 0 1,573 1,308 264 4,116 686 1,959 1,272 360 326 2,158 3,531 2,581 625 326

8,344 6,590 1,754 3,376 2,650 726 6,011 1,043 4,811 3,778 134 899 1,200 8,187 6,429 859 899

7,134 7,134 0 8,648 6,929 1,719 -728 785 4,918 4,351 182 385 -5,646 13,566 11,280 1,901 385

10,527 10,527 0 6,686 6,661 25 3,371 -471 4,182 3,996 1 185 -811 10,868 10,657 26 185

4,274 4,274 0 5,477 5,477 0 -1,924 -720 3,849 3,737 0 112 -5,773 9,326 9,214 0 112

6,712 6,712 0 9,493 9,493 0 -1,430 1,351 3,785 3,639 0 146 -5,215 13,278 13,132 0 146

13,615 13,615 0 14,514 14,514 0 48 947 5,910 5,853 0 57 -5,862 20,424 20,367 0 57

20,517 20,517 0 15,891 15,891 0 7,110 2,484 3,203 3,015 0 188 3,907 19,095 18,906 0 188

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

4,250 3,695 106 0 450 178

4,452 3,940 0 0 512 341

4,505 206 2,144 1,591 565 437

10,262 3,867 3,584 2,345 466 309

7,675 -1,204 5,472 2,853 554 336

4,572 -2,781 5,626 1,022 704 351

12,508 -899 4,585 8,216 606 432

19,668 4,626 5,335 8,835 872 400

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

2,946 1,272 32

673 3,778 0

154 4,351 0

2,098 3,996 4,168

-1,337 3,737 5,275

-4,032 3,639 4,964

667 5,853 5,989

10,153 3,015 6,500

475,945 79,810 14,285 78,976 49,051 1,410

506,161 89,455 15,754 82,839 71,608 7,059

597,551 108,108 21,727 102,148 103,737 6,853

686,028 .. 21,727 .. 131,631 ..

122.2 20.5 11.7 4.8 0.8 50.3 7.5 2.8 37.8 31.8

117.2 20.7 14.8 4.2 0.7 68.3 10.4 3.9 38.2 28.1

104.2 18.8 18.9 5.5 1.0 92.1 12.2 4.5 37.8 26.4

.. 17.9 .. .. 0.5 107.3 .. 6.1 35.0 25.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

226,044 15,845 2,469 20,331 9,493 -4,141

312,732 25,699 2,384 33,220 5,637 -7,036

258.5 18.1 22.3 12.4 0.9 23.2 5.6 10.6 48.0 30.3

325.4 26.7 31.9 18.7 1.5 6.7 2.0 10.2 46.2 26.0

351,132 45,638 6,223 53,444 22,865 -5,563

453,587 75,196 12,890 80,487 41,059 -4,601

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

207.0 26.9 29.7 10.8 1.4 24.2 5.1 5.3 45.7 31.8

201

131.8 21.8 14.5 5.6 0.9 41.4 6.1 3.5 37.9 30.7

INDIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

31,761 30,264 22,714 12,401 9,999 10,313 9,649 7,550 647 5,567 1,497 0 1,497

72,462 70,974 48,337 21,768 13,657 26,569 25,006 22,637 2,613 16,130 1,488 0 1,488

87,040 80,422 57,112 30,048 17,814 27,065 25,378 23,310 3,271 13,412 6,618 1,020 5,598

95,636 80,050 50,626 30,463 19,168 20,163 18,341 29,424 10,215 18,071 15,586 1,515 14,071

94,775 78,818 49,795 31,054 19,742 18,741 17,083 29,023 10,101 18,228 15,957 1,313 14,644

100,743 82,256 49,803 29,497 21,328 20,306 18,674 32,453 9,987 21,887 18,487 1,289 17,198

107,590 85,578 50,690 29,719 23,123 20,971 19,481 34,888 7,655 26,684 22,012 1,192 20,820

115,199 88,699 51,662 31,606 23,994 20,056 18,937 37,037 8,526 28,226 26,499 5,346 21,153

2,396 9,750 34,085 1,967

7,685 13,312 73,059 2,026

9,849 17,499 82,338 7,077

7,080 18,888 79,574 16,062

7,010 19,458 78,352 16,423

5,082 21,011 81,845 18,898

4,238 22,781 85,219 22,371

4,865 23,642 88,379 26,820

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5,003 4,500 2,077 1,404 1,075 673 563 2,423 320 1,727 503 0 503

6,590 6,376 3,572 2,210 785 1,361 1,129 2,804 427 1,983 214 0 214

7,134 5,955 2,828 1,942 736 886 815 3,127 86 1,719 1,179 520 659

10,527 10,227 3,242 2,371 1,075 871 681 6,985 5,512 875 300 0 300

4,274 3,974 3,607 2,462 1,214 1,144 1,000 367 0 319 300 0 300

6,712 5,470 2,900 1,947 901 953 824 2,570 0 2,569 1,242 240 1,002

13,615 8,559 3,759 2,544 937 1,215 1,172 4,800 1,348 3,448 5,056 210 4,846

20,517 12,387 3,573 2,333 1,018 1,240 1,198 8,814 3,589 5,225 8,131 3,091 5,040

328 1,047

1,219 762

589 729

706 1,054

803 1,195

647 886

892 924

818 1,005

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,308 945 656 162 57 494 437 290 0 200 363 0 363

2,650 2,332 1,237 609 128 629 558 1,094 280 250 318 0 318

6,929 6,773 3,876 1,513 245 2,364 2,106 2,896 319 1,797 156 0 156

6,661 6,412 3,479 1,740 387 1,739 1,413 2,933 0 2,711 249 35 214

5,477 5,209 3,242 1,423 441 1,819 1,504 1,967 86 1,402 269 45 224

9,493 8,873 6,727 5,267 468 1,460 1,133 2,146 142 1,860 620 370 250

14,514 12,231 6,491 4,025 546 2,465 2,164 5,741 4,179 1,498 2,283 302 1,980

15,891 11,867 2,629 895 597 1,734 1,488 9,238 2,733 6,245 4,024 225 3,799

104 53

472 114

943 226

994 367

724 429

3,031 456

1,871 532

201 583

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,272 1,118 557 282 73 275 210 561 17 442 154 0 154

3,778 3,643 1,497 738 100 759 634 2,147 180 1,751 135 0 135

4,351 3,820 1,867 1,061 135 806 686 1,953 185 1,263 531 56 475

3,996 3,366 1,422 835 142 588 469 1,944 143 1,739 630 224 406

3,737 3,137 1,296 773 145 523 433 1,841 342 1,448 600 213 387

3,639 3,055 1,259 739 151 520 417 1,796 336 1,441 584 164 420

5,853 4,650 873 456 164 417 373 3,777 1,388 2,376 1,203 61 1,143

3,015 2,171 784 367 194 417 361 1,387 226 1,152 844 166 678

209 71

615 97

770 131

429 139

367 141

341 148

178 161

99 190

202

INDIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.3 15.0 0.1 52.2

.. 9.7 6.1 0.6 60.7

.. 14.8 4.7 0.9 52.4

.. 11.8 3.9 0.3 67.2

5.8 11.8 3.7 0.4 68.8

6.3 12.6 3.4 0.5 71.9

5.7 14.1 3.0 0.3 75.4

5.3 13.0 2.7 0.3 77.1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 6,916 8,222 -8,019 785 -1,582 4,116 6,011 -728 3,371 -1,924 1,474 -849 -7,898 -4,761 -1,713 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7,319 -1,430 3,540

7,794 48 3,917

10,093 7,110 441

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

6.2 23.9 7.1 21.6

5.4 21.9 7.9 33.9

3.7 23.3 7.7 45.2

4.7 11.5 5.4 25.6

3.6 23.7 6.6 45.7

2.3 23.8 7.1 54.8

1.9 21.2 6.8 54.2

2.7 20.6 6.0 48.2

5.2 29.6 6.7 29.0

3.9 28.7 8.4 49.1

3.3 27.2 8.4 51.5

5.5 24.0 6.6 33.5

3.5 24.4 6.7 46.9

2.2 26.1 7.5 58.1

1.5 25.9 7.5 63.2

2.2 26.7 6.6 58.3

8.1 6.8 5.7 4.3 5.4 2.6 13.8 15.0 5.9 5.1 3.7 5.0 7.7 7.3 4.8 4.8 3.7 4.7 8.4 18.9 16.7 21.5 13.8 27.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.4 5.5 4.7 24.2

3.8 7.5 4.8 26.2

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11,337 4,968

5,586 4,022

7,005 3,960

7,143 3,825

9,342 3,614

5,894 3,371

5,978 3,224

5,704 3,079

2,471 1,023

2,714 1,085

2,891 1,100

3,089 1,098

3,223 1,053

3,218 994

3,222 929

3,297 854

1,407 535

1,471 533

1,461 506

1,459 473

1,485 436

1,387 396

1,344 359

1,357 322

1,064 488

1,243 551

1,431 594

1,630 625

1,737 617

1,831 598

1,878 570

1,941 532

8,865 3,945

2,873 2,937

4,114 2,860

4,055 2,727

6,120 2,562

2,676 2,377

2,756 2,295

2,407 2,225

Notes: Data source: Data relate to the year ending in March (latest data are for the year ending in March 2005). Long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt as of the end of March 2005 are based on reports provided by the country. Revisions: At the country's request, data were revised to include the reclassification of the NRI deposits from Public and publicly guaranteed to Private nonguaranteed debt category beginning 2001.

203

INDONESIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

36,715 30,620 26,784 3,837 46 6,049 0 0 0

69,872 58,242 47,982 10,261 494 11,135 0 0 0

124,398 98,432 65,309 33,123 0 25,966 0 0 0

144,424 110,954 69,785 41,169 10,838 22,633 4,632 5 4,627

134,062 103,144 68,739 34,405 9,113 21,805 5,632 5 5,627

132,214 100,546 70,520 30,026 8,861 22,806 6,406 5 6,401

136,908 103,730 73,976 29,754 10,276 22,903 7,403 3 7,400

140,649 106,463 72,917 33,546 9,686 24,500 7,400 0 7,400

63 54 9

1 1 0

0 0 0

3,000 0 3,000

3,000 0 3,000

3,000 0 3,000

9,403 0 9,403

10,362 0 10,362

4,170 4,170 0 3,422 3,036 385 1,390 641 2,401 2,040 19 342 -1,011 5,823 5,076 405 342

10,024 10,024 0 5,969 5,812 157 7,216 3,160 3,978 3,413 59 506 3,238 9,946 9,224 216 506

13,628 13,628 0 10,197 10,197 0 9,941 6,509 6,219 4,935 0 1,284 3,722 16,416 15,132 0 1,284

7,165 6,043 1,123 9,296 9,296 0 -659 1,471 7,384 5,702 526 1,157 -8,044 16,681 14,998 526 1,157

4,683 4,289 394 9,633 7,881 1,752 -5,977 -1,028 5,900 4,566 470 863 -11,878 15,532 12,447 2,222 863

5,232 3,806 1,426 12,924 10,548 2,376 -7,465 227 4,004 3,141 263 600 -11,469 16,928 13,689 2,638 600

9,703 7,778 1,925 14,259 12,889 1,370 -5,456 -900 4,195 3,392 164 638 -9,650 18,454 16,282 1,534 638

10,960 10,960 0 15,599 14,594 1,005 -3,039 1,600 4,865 3,958 255 652 -7,904 20,464 18,552 1,260 652

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,581 1,134 310 0 137 202

5,589 4,213 1,093 0 283 401

9,521 3,431 4,346 1,493 250 494

-8,454 -3,254 -4,550 -1,021 371 422

-5,862 -3,592 -2,977 442 265 406

-5,418 -6,742 145 877 302 467

-4,294 -5,111 -597 1,131 283 483

-192 -3,634 1,023 2,129 290 430

-2,607 2,040 2,147

-16 3,413 2,192

3,868 4,935 718

-17,730 5,702 3,574

-13,586 4,566 3,158

-11,774 3,141 3,215

-10,441 3,392 2,754

-9,564 3,958 5,414

151,141 65,915 1,046 59,489 28,104 6,901

194,257 68,405 1,259 61,062 32,034 7,824

229,241 72,227 1,489 64,220 36,256 8,387

248,798 92,788 1,866 89,119 36,311 3,108

203.4 88.7 23.6 9.0 3.9 21.0 5.7 16.3 21.0 14.4

193.3 68.1 24.7 5.9 2.1 24.2 6.3 17.2 24.4 14.7

189.6 59.7 25.5 5.8 1.8 26.5 6.8 16.7 27.2 13.8

151.6 56.5 22.1 5.2 2.0 25.8 4.9 17.4 27.7 13.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

82,777 20,200 61 22,150 5,989 -1,923

109,209 29,870 166 33,110 8,657 -2,988

181.8 44.4 28.8 11.9 2.9 16.3 3.2 16.5 25.3 14.5

233.9 64.0 33.3 13.3 3.6 12.4 3.1 15.9 26.4 20.4

196,188 54,880 651 61,641 14,908 -6,431

154,077 74,269 1,190 66,903 29,353 7,992

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

226.7 63.4 29.9 11.3 3.2 12.0 2.9 20.9 22.5 16.1

204

194.5 93.7 22.5 9.9 4.8 20.3 5.3 15.7 21.0 13.8

INDONESIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

30,620 26,784 14,985 5,312 972 9,673 8,332 11,799 809 4,993 3,837 0 3,837

58,242 47,982 33,007 14,285 1,369 18,722 17,088 14,975 696 8,606 10,261 120 10,141

98,432 65,309 51,250 20,013 1,668 31,237 26,304 14,059 704 6,714 33,123 3,420 29,703

110,954 69,785 55,127 19,904 1,642 35,222 28,643 14,658 971 9,835 41,169 6,337 34,832

103,144 68,739 52,968 19,372 1,576 33,596 26,574 15,771 945 11,783 34,405 4,981 29,424

100,546 70,520 56,850 19,439 1,710 37,411 30,547 13,670 779 10,002 30,026 4,511 25,516

103,730 73,976 60,701 18,902 1,905 41,799 35,393 13,275 1,979 8,590 29,754 3,854 25,900

106,463 72,917 59,846 18,319 2,080 41,526 36,947 13,071 2,979 7,528 33,546 4,374 29,173

3,590 844 26,784 3,837

9,542 842 47,982 10,261

12,503 756 65,309 33,123

11,715 714 69,685 41,269

11,435 722 68,481 34,663

10,729 794 70,087 30,460

9,779 880 72,875 30,855

8,943 996 71,599 34,864

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4,170 3,550 1,602 951 55 650 442 1,948 0 740 621 0 621

10,024 5,009 3,969 1,794 145 2,175 1,979 1,041 0 487 5,015 120 4,895

13,628 6,665 4,254 1,777 80 2,477 1,923 2,411 605 938 6,963 1,763 5,200

6,043 3,693 3,424 1,750 108 1,674 1,134 268 0 262 2,350 350 2,000

4,289 2,289 2,129 1,126 75 1,003 981 160 0 112 2,000 0 2,000

3,806 2,156 1,792 1,198 111 594 587 364 300 41 1,650 150 1,500

7,778 3,647 1,510 804 148 706 687 2,137 1,200 924 4,131 250 3,881

10,960 4,129 1,844 1,124 177 720 656 2,285 1,000 1,252 6,831 620 6,211

739 38

987 0

1,045 0

1,051 59

546 39

332 87

317 91

537 122

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,036 2,344 622 160 10 462 279 1,722 40 986 692 0 692

5,812 4,588 1,586 677 24 909 611 3,001 94 1,718 1,224 0 1,224

10,197 5,714 3,125 1,289 46 1,836 1,271 2,589 0 1,678 4,483 120 4,363

9,296 3,896 1,616 1,116 69 500 334 2,280 0 2,106 5,400 2,400 3,000

7,881 3,123 1,523 1,174 65 349 296 1,600 26 1,526 4,759 1,350 3,408

10,548 4,320 2,237 1,489 66 748 606 2,083 235 1,727 6,229 621 5,608

12,889 5,082 2,402 1,726 67 676 414 2,680 0 2,571 7,807 850 6,957

14,594 7,494 4,531 1,851 69 2,680 1,764 2,962 0 2,438 7,100 100 7,000

127 6

551 11

955 20

761 26

826 27

1,038 27

1,267 27

1,363 27

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,040 1,644 692 329 8 362 232 952 79 440 396 0 396

3,413 2,808 1,585 990 16 595 451 1,223 62 699 605 0 605

4,935 3,773 2,666 1,403 26 1,263 875 1,108 6 656 1,161 139 1,022

5,702 3,767 2,604 1,383 25 1,221 810 1,162 72 845 1,935 735 1,200

4,566 3,585 2,664 1,357 26 1,307 807 921 71 642 980 546 434

3,141 2,245 1,806 1,295 21 511 332 439 32 351 896 462 434

3,392 2,323 1,948 1,121 20 827 625 375 65 230 1,069 447 622

3,958 2,855 2,350 913 22 1,436 1,157 505 142 243 1,103 413 690

256 6

731 6

921 6

950 5

927 5

867 6

736 6

575 8

205

INDONESIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 31.8 2.1 0.7 31.2

.. 34.6 1.4 0.4 20.9

.. 35.3 0.8 0.7 21.5

.. 32.9 1.2 0.6 50.6

7.6 27.9 0.9 0.6 57.4

9.0 28.0 1.3 0.6 55.4

10.4 28.4 1.2 0.6 53.9

13.4 32.5 1.9 0.7 45.9

0 0 0 2,461 2,769 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,262 2,733 0 0 0 1,534 1,885 0 0 0 727 848 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 4,690 10,470 16,574 -6,796 -10,362 1,390 7,216 9,941 -659 -5,977 2,998 3,078 -44 -4,577 -4,219 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

4,281 1,002 2,441 1,836 604 675 551 124 0 0 0 0

3,086 0 2,515 1,949 566 408 342 66 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-1,849 -7,465 4,181

4,695 -5,456 5,129

3,741 -3,039 1,969

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.2 17.5 6.1 18.2

6.0 21.6 6.0 28.9

5.7 18.1 5.1 27.1

4.1 19.2 6.8 41.4

4.8 22.6 5.6 36.5

3.7 21.7 6.0 41.4

4.6 12.9 5.6 29.5

4.1 16.2 7.4 38.9

6.7 23.3 7.0 24.4

5.6 23.1 6.6 32.8

5.1 21.3 5.8 33.3

2.7 25.9 7.9 56.8

4.8 23.1 5.7 37.0

2.4 25.0 5.4 51.7

2.1 19.8 4.6 50.1

2.4 23.4 6.9 55.0

8.3 9.4 8.0 3.8

6.5 7.9 6.3 14.6

5.9 8.2 8.0 21.0

7.7 7.6 6.8 6.7 4.4 11.0 16.3 12.2 6.9 8.0 5.1 4.1 3.9 4.7 1.7 11.2 15.5 15.6 13.2 19.8 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

13,785 3,687

12,206 3,219

11,312 2,824

10,601 2,342

6,588 1,948

7,481 1,637

4,416 1,335

4,971 1,169

5,371 2,115

5,183 1,967

4,950 1,806

5,064 1,628

5,187 1,439

4,731 1,254

4,071 1,088

3,886 937

3,264 1,192

3,210 1,124

3,024 1,038

3,211 951

3,376 852

3,054 755

2,532 670

2,452 595

2,107 923

1,973 844

1,926 768

1,852 678

1,811 587

1,678 499

1,539 418

1,434 342

8,414 1,572

7,023 1,251

6,362 1,018

5,538 714

1,401 509

2,750 383

345 247

1,085 232

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are preliminary based on partial reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

206

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

6,057 2,390 2,390 0 0 3,667 424 4 419

9,020 1,797 1,797 0 0 7,224 456 6 449

21,879 15,430 15,116 314 0 6,449 6 2 4

7,978 4,970 4,707 263 0 3,008 0 0 0

7,480 5,462 5,291 170 0 2,018 0 0 0

9,180 6,823 6,604 219 0 2,357 0 0 0

12,325 9,121 8,933 188 0 3,204 0 0 0

13,622 10,103 9,985 118 0 3,519 0 0 0

1,180 18 1,162

1,517 29 1,488

48 0 48

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

87 87 0 354 354 0 649 916 259 58 0 201 390 613 412 0 201

139 139 0 225 225 0 2,480 2,566 430 28 0 402 2,050 655 253 0 402

979 979 0 4,198 4,198 0 -305 2,914 1,627 1,132 0 494 -1,931 5,824 5,330 0 494

1,465 1,465 0 2,637 2,637 0 -1,780 -609 589 409 0 180 -2,369 3,225 3,045 0 180

1,917 1,917 0 880 880 0 46 -990 402 301 0 101 -356 1,282 1,181 0 101

1,951 1,951 0 1,103 1,103 0 1,187 339 357 298 0 59 830 1,460 1,401 0 59

2,538 2,538 0 1,269 1,269 0 2,116 847 395 315 0 80 1,721 1,663 1,583 0 80

2,202 2,202 0 1,473 1,473 0 1,044 315 465 377 0 88 579 1,938 1,850 0 88

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

-297 -267 -38 0 8 23

-9 -86 0 0 76 99

-3,161 -3,219 17 0 41 106

-1,096 -1,171 39 0 36 64

1,132 1,036 61 0 35 61

1,449 848 548 0 53 60

1,815 1,269 482 0 64 75

1,350 729 500 0 121 81

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-355 58 0

-37 28 0

-4,293 1,132 0

-1,505 409 0

831 301 0

1,151 298 0

1,501 315 0

973 377 0

115,148 28,174 682 22,343 .. 5,881

118,028 33,935 851 30,841 .. 3,961

139,737 43,094 1,178 39,626 .. 2,063

163,614 .. 1,032 .. .. ..

26.5 6.5 4.6 1.4 0.3 .. .. 27.0 0.0 6.2

27.1 7.8 4.3 1.1 0.3 .. .. 25.7 0.0 4.5

28.6 8.8 3.9 0.9 0.3 .. .. 26.0 0.0 2.9

.. 8.3 .. .. 0.3 .. .. 25.8 0.0 2.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

180,104 14,938 0 15,414 .. -476

120,782 20,197 0 22,370 .. 327

40.5 3.4 4.1 1.7 0.1 .. .. 60.5 0.0 5.7

44.7 7.5 3.2 2.1 0.4 .. .. 80.1 0.0 1.3

94,771 19,269 1,600 15,907 .. 3,358

101,114 30,131 536 18,107 .. 12,645

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

113.5 23.1 30.2 8.4 1.7 .. .. 29.5 0.0 1.7

207

26.5 7.9 10.7 2.0 0.6 .. .. 37.7 0.0 6.4

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,390 2,390 520 344 0 177 176 1,870 0 1,055 0 0 0

1,797 1,797 225 116 0 110 110 1,571 0 1,055 0 0 0

15,430 15,116 11,354 381 0 10,974 549 3,761 0 5 314 0 314

4,970 4,707 1,625 514 0 1,111 512 3,082 0 1,041 263 0 263

5,462 5,291 1,197 465 0 732 429 4,095 0 1,682 170 0 170

6,823 6,604 1,312 409 0 902 540 5,292 0 2,500 219 0 219

9,121 8,933 1,526 360 0 1,167 799 7,407 0 2,998 188 0 188

10,103 9,985 1,584 326 0 1,258 857 8,401 0 3,477 118 0 118

344 0 2,390 0

86 0 1,797 0

316 0 15,031 398

481 0 4,687 283

456 0 5,275 187

400 0 6,588 235

350 0 8,917 204

316 0 9,972 131

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

87 87 0 0 0 0 0 87 0 0 0 0 0

139 139 30 30 0 0 0 109 0 0 0 0 0

979 979 393 123 0 270 270 586 0 1 0 0 0

1,465 1,465 443 128 0 315 62 1,022 0 268 0 0 0

1,917 1,917 255 47 0 208 89 1,662 0 824 0 0 0

1,951 1,801 312 12 0 300 191 1,489 0 913 150 0 150

2,538 2,538 293 21 0 273 194 2,244 0 830 0 0 0

2,202 2,202 259 36 0 223 126 1,943 0 995 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

85 0

114 0

44 0

12 0

14 0

29 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

354 354 67 48 0 19 18 287 0 0 0 0 0

225 225 86 67 0 18 18 139 0 0 0 0 0

4,198 4,120 3,497 41 0 3,456 20 622 0 1 78 0 78

2,637 2,344 1,785 108 0 1,676 127 559 0 65 293 0 293

880 788 275 71 0 204 150 513 0 132 93 0 93

1,103 1,002 243 70 0 173 120 759 0 271 101 0 101

1,269 1,219 167 71 0 95 19 1,052 0 498 50 0 50

1,473 1,431 182 70 0 112 46 1,249 0 612 42 0 42

48 0

67 0

6 0

70 0

70 0

69 0

63 0

63 0

58 58 30 24 0 7 7 27 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 14 10 0 4 4 14 0 0 0 0 0

1,132 1,107 787 27 0 759 27 321 0 0 25 0 25

409 393 189 44 0 144 21 204 0 82 16 0 16

301 291 88 41 0 47 27 203 0 81 10 0 10

298 292 77 36 0 40 14 216 0 92 6 0 6

315 308 75 29 0 46 19 233 0 92 6 0 6

377 371 88 22 0 66 40 283 0 109 6 0 6

24 0

10 0

19 0

40 0

41 0

36 0

29 0

22 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

208

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 9.2 0.8 0.1 68.3

.. 4.2 0.0 0.0 88.6

.. 4.9 0.0 0.6 71.5

.. 9.4 0.6 3.8 68.3

23.8 7.5 0.5 6.0 61.5

34.6 9.5 0.5 6.4 48.7

46.6 11.9 0.4 6.3 34.7

50.5 10.5 0.3 5.4 33.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 3,178 0 0 0 0 3,178 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 897 2,502 -755 -1,928 -498 649 2,480 -305 -1,780 46 230 -6 -340 -139 -29 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,700 1,187 447

3,145 2,116 412

1,297 1,044 265

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.0 19.0 1.0 15.9

8.3 9.5 4.0 6.9

6.6 9.3 3.1 14.4

5.9 11.5 3.5 19.2

4.6 9.6 2.7 23.3

4.0 10.5 2.9 25.1

2.2 10.9 2.8 35.6

3.5 11.9 4.0 33.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.3 13.5 5.0 14.4

7.5 8.0 2.2 8.7

4.9 13.4 4.4 27.1

4.9 11.1 3.9 24.4

5.6 14.0 4.4 21.9

2.4 16.9 3.6 45.0

2.8 16.9 5.6 46.0

7.0 8.6 6.3 6.6 4.5 3.4 19.0 8.3 9.6 10.2 9.4 9.1 1.0 3.7 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.3 15.9 4.7 16.0 14.4 23.1 26.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

2.2 10.4 2.8 34.7

3.8 9.8 3.3 27.9

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2,702 535

1,992 456

1,945 380

1,795 297

1,618 228

1,410 170

1,151 122

956 81

260 70

281 67

280 63

274 58

278 52

290 45

241 38

232 31

173 50

203 47

205 41

198 35

194 28

193 21

158 15

150 9

87 20

78 20

75 22

76 23

84 24

97 24

82 23

82 22

2,442 465

1,711 388

1,665 317

1,522 239

1,340 176

1,120 125

910 85

724 50

Notes: Data source: Data relate to the year ending in March. Long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt as of end-March 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed and short-term debt are World Bank staff estimates.

209

JAMAICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,130 3,247 3,181 66 693 190 21 18 3

4,752 4,049 4,015 34 357 346 124 87 37

4,572 3,840 3,712 128 240 492 102 87 15

4,715 3,862 3,760 103 60 793 150 122 28

5,374 4,402 4,308 94 40 931 157 110 47

5,489 4,684 4,599 86 24 781 170 107 63

5,574 4,578 4,501 77 9 987 195 117 78

6,399 5,269 5,170 98 1 1,129 225 137 88

89 88 1

157 84 73

203 166 37

131 110 21

73 66 7

87 68 20

115 77 37

122 68 54

510 458 52 224 162 62 231 -55 287 211 55 22 -56 511 372 117 22

348 292 56 401 290 111 -99 -45 260 202 34 24 -359 662 492 145 24

316 305 11 436 340 95 -106 14 232 191 17 24 -337 667 531 112 24

904 904 0 443 424 19 440 -21 261 208 4 49 179 704 632 23 49

1,037 1,037 0 423 404 18 746 131 319 284 3 33 426 742 688 21 33

613 613 0 509 491 19 -59 -163 339 319 1 19 -399 849 810 20 19

215 215 0 510 494 16 -114 181 314 298 0 16 -429 824 792 16 16

1,099 1,099 0 497 489 8 714 112 338 307 0 30 376 835 797 8 30

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

343 297 -9 0 55 21

257 2 138 0 117 33

176 -35 147 0 64 51

994 481 468 0 45 32

1,317 633 614 0 70 37

642 122 481 0 38 46

471 -279 721 0 29 39

1,316 610 602 0 104 37

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

113 211 19

-135 202 189

-246 191 230

496 208 290

733 284 301

-112 319 434

-153 298 326

647 307 362

7,698 4,571 892 4,970 1,054 -367

7,779 4,510 1,058 5,243 1,901 -759

8,001 4,573 1,260 5,603 1,645 -1,074

7,744 5,010 1,398 5,703 1,195 -773

8,413 5,634 1,623 6,124 1,846 -509

103.2 61.3 15.4 5.7 3.4 22.3 2.5 16.8 22.4 25.8

119.2 69.1 16.5 7.1 4.1 35.4 4.4 17.3 17.4 22.6

120.0 68.6 18.6 7.4 4.2 30.0 3.5 14.2 17.1 25.4

111.2 72.0 16.5 6.3 4.1 21.4 2.5 17.7 18.5 25.2

113.6 76.1 14.8 6.0 4.0 28.9 3.6 17.6 15.5 22.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,832 1,359 146 1,789 161 -271

4,158 2,461 229 2,928 168 -312

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

304.0 225.4 37.6 21.2 15.7 3.9 1.1 4.6 24.3 18.0

193.1 114.3 26.9 10.6 6.3 3.5 0.7 7.3 30.0 24.7

5,569 4,123 653 4,246 681 -99

4. DEBT INDICATORS 110.9 82.1 16.2 5.6 4.2 14.9 1.9 10.8 34.8 27.0

210

JAMAICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3,247 3,181 2,516 745 152 1,771 850 665 0 421 66 0 66

4,049 4,015 3,454 1,174 180 2,280 1,244 561 0 331 34 0 34

3,840 3,712 3,354 1,234 148 2,120 1,445 358 25 269 128 55 73

3,862 3,760 2,440 1,218 155 1,222 900 1,320 1,004 265 103 0 103

4,402 4,308 2,250 1,213 144 1,038 791 2,058 1,810 191 94 0 94

4,684 4,599 2,400 1,392 157 1,008 781 2,199 1,943 188 86 0 86

4,578 4,501 2,440 1,407 192 1,033 836 2,061 1,821 172 77 0 77

5,269 5,170 2,389 1,420 203 969 791 2,782 2,524 201 98 0 98

468 0 3,173 74

672 0 4,015 34

595 0 3,712 128

415 0 3,758 104

443 0 4,307 96

495 0 4,598 87

476 0 4,500 78

439 0 5,169 100

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

458 448 350 123 5 227 112 99 0 17 10 0 10

292 292 253 110 9 144 103 39 0 0 0 0 0

305 250 193 125 10 68 36 57 13 42 55 0 55

904 904 311 255 18 57 25 593 553 24 0 0 0

1,037 1,037 173 138 5 35 23 865 819 31 0 0 0

613 613 265 236 15 29 18 348 300 32 0 0 0

215 215 141 69 27 72 59 74 50 12 0 0 0

1,099 1,069 127 110 16 17 7 942 859 84 30 0 30

75 0

35 0

61 0

98 0

91 0

84 0

15 0

6 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

162 148 100 28 4 72 3 48 0 5 14 0 14

290 281 205 100 8 105 19 76 0 1 8 0 8

340 335 255 127 10 129 29 80 0 73 5 0 5

424 360 273 122 10 151 76 87 13 47 64 55 9

404 396 281 109 15 172 80 115 0 103 9 0 9

491 482 205 109 8 96 68 277 230 37 9 0 9

494 486 212 119 8 93 63 273 226 32 9 0 9

489 481 214 120 10 94 66 267 218 35 9 0 9

18 0

62 0

85 0

60 0

52 0

44 0

46 0

47 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

211 206 118 46 4 72 13 88 0 68 5 0 5

202 200 165 85 5 79 16 35 0 20 3 0 3

191 181 158 83 3 75 37 23 2 19 11 5 6

208 195 120 65 3 55 25 75 50 18 13 2 11

284 273 114 70 5 43 28 160 142 14 10 0 10

319 310 98 66 4 32 23 212 197 10 10 0 10

298 297 99 67 4 32 23 198 191 5 1 0 1

307 304 89 61 5 28 22 216 207 7 3 0 3

34 0

58 0

47 0

22 0

22 0

21 0

20 0

18 0

211

JAMAICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.3 3.4 0.1 60.9

.. 4.8 5.8 0.0 49.9

.. 9.9 4.1 0.0 47.5

.. 7.1 2.0 0.0 61.6

13.5 5.3 1.8 0.0 65.9

14.8 5.1 1.8 0.0 66.2

12.1 6.6 2.3 0.0 67.4

20.7 5.5 2.1 0.0 62.8

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

500 469 105 0 0 0 314 0 0 0 446 99 85 0 0 178 96 84 0 0 268 3 1 0 0 28 54 16 0 0 27 54 16 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 513 120 -29 798 658 231 -99 -106 440 746 227 158 33 -91 -94 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

115 -59 190

85 -114 223

825 714 75

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.7 10.5 3.5 13.6

7.6 17.8 4.2 14.1

5.8 16.8 3.8 23.6

9.1 11.2 4.6 6.6

9.8 13.5 10.2 0.4

7.3 16.0 10.2 15.9

6.6 11.1 3.2 15.2

9.8 9.1 8.0 1.4

6.6 14.6 4.8 20.4

7.5 19.7 4.7 15.8

5.6 21.6 4.7 28.9

6.1 19.8 5.4 25.1

4.5 19.1 5.0 34.4

3.7 18.2 5.5 39.5

5.7 15.0 2.7 20.6

5.5 20.5 7.4 32.0

10.0 8.7 6.3 11.0 11.3 10.1 2.3 1.9 8.3 6.0 11.9 14.3 0.8 0.4 2.1 4.2 11.7 14.0 -0.3 0.6 14.2 -4.6 -9.2 -3.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

7.1 8.7 3.5 11.9

9.8 9.0 8.0 1.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

585 380

316 357

530 345

398 303

553 266

245 239

603 205

454 173

255 105

262 97

250 88

251 79

238 68

213 58

181 49

159 42

123 34

112 29

95 25

91 21

80 17

69 14

63 12

57 10

132 71

149 68

155 64

161 58

158 51

144 44

118 37

102 32

330 274

54 260

280 256

146 224

315 198

33 180

422 156

295 131

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

212

JORDAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,944 3,189 3,189 0 63 692 1 1 0

8,333 7,202 7,202 0 94 1,037 107 30 77

7,661 6,624 6,624 0 251 785 67 63 4

7,355 6,183 6,183 0 462 710 102 102 0

7,534 6,632 6,632 0 433 469 36 36 0

8,108 7,072 7,072 0 483 554 36 36 0

8,337 7,173 7,173 0 421 743 0 0 0

8,175 7,234 7,234 0 338 604 0 0 0

9 9 0

529 34 495

177 175 2

281 274 7

144 142 2

139 138 2

20 18 2

23 22 1

737 679 58 269 269 0 484 16 247 186 3 57 237 516 456 3 57

691 691 0 252 242 10 604 165 377 310 9 58 227 628 552 18 58

724 609 115 337 329 8 484 97 263 209 10 43 222 600 538 18 43

196 176 20 424 393 31 -399 -171 315 239 24 52 -715 740 632 56 52

653 614 39 401 349 51 77 -175 262 218 20 24 -185 663 567 72 24

433 340 93 390 311 79 128 85 199 173 14 13 -71 589 484 93 13

173 173 0 978 878 100 -580 225 180 157 9 14 -760 1,158 1,035 109 14

212 212 0 520 422 98 -447 -139 180 146 10 24 -627 700 568 108 24

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

888 410 25 0 453 27

1,159 449 38 0 672 68

513 280 13 0 219 160

953 -217 801 -17 386 120

565 265 120 -145 326 133

426 29 64 -52 385 156

805 -706 424 -58 1,144 115

786 -210 620 -120 495 109

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

702 186 0

849 310 0

303 209 0

713 239 1

346 218 2

253 173 1

646 157 2

639 146 1

8,595 5,867 1,845 6,331 3,441 59

9,162 6,236 2,011 6,489 3,174 -4

9,672 6,950 2,135 6,756 4,116 537

10,278 7,295 2,201 7,341 5,366 1,179

11,705 8,557 2,287 9,732 5,447 -18

125.4 85.6 12.6 5.4 3.7 46.8 6.5 9.7 47.8 23.2

120.8 82.2 10.6 4.2 2.9 42.1 5.9 6.2 43.2 24.2

116.7 83.8 8.5 2.9 2.1 50.8 7.3 6.8 41.9 24.8

114.3 81.1 15.9 2.5 1.7 64.4 8.8 8.9 46.1 24.3

95.5 69.8 8.2 2.1 1.5 66.6 6.7 7.4 48.4 24.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

5,031 3,079 1,022 3,903 770 -260

3,805 3,078 499 3,850 1,139 -227

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

128.1 78.4 16.8 8.0 4.9 19.5 2.4 17.5 35.4 10.7

270.8 219.0 20.4 12.2 9.9 13.7 3.5 12.4 29.8 10.6

6,449 4,838 1,441 5,297 2,279 -259

4. DEBT INDICATORS 158.3 118.8 12.4 5.4 4.1 29.8 5.2 10.2 41.4 15.5

213

JORDAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3,189 3,189 2,163 421 174 1,741 1,221 1,027 0 528 0 0 0

7,202 7,202 3,551 887 209 2,664 2,276 3,651 263 1,604 0 0 0

6,624 6,624 4,583 1,185 278 3,397 2,892 2,041 801 337 0 0 0

6,183 6,183 5,190 1,706 601 3,484 2,915 993 636 1 0 0 0

6,632 6,632 5,778 1,824 600 3,954 2,655 855 548 1 0 0 0

7,072 7,072 6,253 2,012 631 4,241 2,764 819 536 1 0 0 0

7,173 7,173 6,821 2,027 651 4,794 3,196 352 68 0 0 0 0

7,234 7,234 6,922 1,964 669 4,957 3,288 312 57 0 0 0 0

168 82 3,189 0

516 77 7,202 0

736 69 6,624 0

798 57 6,148 35

886 55 6,600 32

1,020 52 7,043 28

1,017 50 7,149 24

971 47 7,214 19

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

679 679 382 101 11 281 205 297 0 205 0 0 0

691 691 376 142 10 234 223 315 0 73 0 0 0

609 609 609 259 53 351 336 0 0 0 0 0 0

176 176 176 80 32 96 53 0 0 0 0 0 0

614 614 614 280 41 334 256 0 0 0 0 0 0

340 340 340 255 54 85 57 0 0 0 0 0 0

173 173 173 114 64 58 54 0 0 0 0 0 0

212 212 184 112 66 72 72 28 0 0 0 0 0

64 0

123 0

158 0

38 0

161 0

166 0

35 0

29 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

269 269 163 20 6 143 38 107 0 70 0 0 0

242 242 142 94 12 48 32 100 0 69 0 0 0

329 329 128 117 21 11 6 201 0 135 0 0 0

393 393 238 124 27 114 93 155 95 19 0 0 0

349 349 280 140 38 140 116 70 45 0 0 0 0

311 311 277 151 46 126 92 34 10 0 0 0 0

878 878 399 173 59 226 161 479 467 0 0 0 0

422 422 377 209 51 168 130 44 11 0 0 0 0

10 1

52 1

77 2

53 3

55 3

56 3

65 3

86 3

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

186 186 113 24 7 89 34 73 0 35 0 0 0

310 310 123 54 6 69 57 187 14 67 0 0 0

209 209 116 63 6 53 40 94 41 32 0 0 0

239 239 158 91 23 67 47 80 46 1 0 0 0

218 218 171 92 24 79 43 47 34 0 0 0 0

173 173 138 80 25 58 38 35 28 0 0 0 0

157 157 127 73 25 53 47 31 26 0 0 0 0

146 146 134 71 26 63 50 13 4 0 0 0 0

11 1

37 1

48 1

53 0

50 0

39 0

32 0

25 0

214

JORDAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 3.9 2.3 0.4 52.2

.. 5.8 7.9 0.8 45.7

.. 25.6 5.5 0.5 28.9

.. 27.5 3.4 0.4 29.3

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 350 365 194 0 0 0 0 0 350 269 90 0 193 117 60 0 157 152 29 0 0 97 62 0 0 53 45 0 0 44 17 0 0 322 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 0 0 0 85 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 657 1,017 107 -728 484 604 484 -399 136 309 57 -366 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

16.8 21.7 8.0 0.5 30.9

19.1 21.4 8.1 0.5 29.9

22.0 23.1 8.4 1.2 24.0

23.1 22.6 9.2 1.2 23.0

567 142 252 231 21 172 138 34 92 0 44 35

213 0 113 94 19 100 69 30 0 0 66 0

563 0 254 234 20 176 126 51 53 4 8 0

257 0 134 113 21 96 86 10 68 0 30 0

179 77 -314

574 128 508

229 -580 619

-162 -447 265

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.4 11.7 4.2 7.7

4.5 19.9 6.5 39.0

4.7 21.8 8.4 38.0

4.8 19.5 6.4 35.1

2.2 21.3 3.4 47.7

2.1 16.0 4.9 46.7

2.2 21.6 6.2 53.9

2.3 21.1 5.9 51.3

7.8 14.8 4.6 11.7

3.9 21.8 7.4 44.4

4.7 21.8 8.4 38.0

4.8 19.5 6.4 35.1

2.2 21.3 3.4 47.7

2.1 16.0 4.9 46.7

2.2 21.2 6.3 53.1

2.5 20.9 6.1 51.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 30.0 5.0 68.3

1.3 22.2 4.1 52.5

8.6 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

613 256

574 272

571 258

511 239

534 221

548 201

562 180

568 159

567 241

531 259

530 247

490 230

514 213

526 195

542 175

548 154

355 159

331 181

333 173

288 161

303 151

317 139

338 127

352 114

213 81

200 78

197 74

203 69

211 62

209 55

204 48

197 40

46 15

43 13

41 11

20 9

21 8

21 7

20 6

20 5

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

215

KAZAKHSTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,750 2,937 2,834 103 432 381 162 162 0

12,433 11,472 3,623 7,849 0 961 0 0 0

14,887 13,545 3,450 10,095 0 1,342 0 0 0

17,290 15,448 3,210 12,237 0 1,842 0 0 0

22,754 19,921 3,464 16,457 0 2,833 0 0 0

32,310 28,738 3,209 25,528 0 3,573 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

881 740 141 105 105 0 868 93 130 102 17 10 739 235 207 17 10

3,057 3,057 0 2,595 2,153 442 1,057 595 775 713 11 51 282 3,371 2,866 453 51

4,785 4,785 0 2,623 2,623 0 2,543 381 731 685 0 46 1,811 3,354 3,308 0 46

4,914 4,914 0 3,388 3,388 0 2,026 500 719 666 0 53 1,307 4,107 4,054 0 53

8,180 8,180 0 4,509 4,509 0 4,662 991 794 723 0 70 3,869 5,302 5,232 0 70

16,101 16,101 0 7,868 7,868 0 8,973 740 907 811 0 96 8,066 8,774 8,678 0 96

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,610 635 964 0 11 55

2,250 904 1,283 19 44 74

5,080 2,162 2,835 55 28 81

4,176 1,526 2,590 39 21 102

5,852 3,671 2,092 64 25 82

12,348 8,233 4,104 -14 24 121

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

1,434 102 74

491 713 1,046

3,254 685 1,142

2,503 666 1,007

3,697 723 1,432

9,265 811 2,272

21,013 10,494 171 12,041 2,506 -1,390

23,604 11,908 205 12,939 3,141 -1,024

29,091 15,239 148 15,308 4,962 -273

37,964 23,078 167 22,007 9,277 530

141.9 70.8 32.0 7.0 3.5 16.8 2.5 9.0 2.6 10.2

145.2 73.3 34.5 6.0 3.0 18.2 2.9 10.7 2.9 9.5

149.3 78.2 34.8 5.2 2.7 21.8 3.9 12.5 3.3 7.8

140.0 85.1 38.0 3.9 2.4 28.7 5.1 11.1 3.0 5.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

20,191 6,020 116 6,292 1,660 -213

17,150 10,544 122 10,362 2,099 366

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

62.3 18.6 3.9 2.2 0.6 44.3 3.2 10.2 2.7 10.4

216

117.9 72.5 32.0 7.4 4.5 16.9 2.4 7.7 3.3 11.9

KAZAKHSTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

2,937 2,834 2,293 392 0 1,901 100 541 0 17 103 0 103

11,472 3,623 2,239 1,482 60 757 356 1,384 1,000 263 7,849 100 7,749

13,545 3,450 2,156 1,512 58 644 336 1,294 1,000 251 10,095 100 9,995

15,448 3,210 2,299 1,647 81 653 412 911 650 240 12,237 400 11,837

19,921 3,464 2,615 1,770 87 845 663 849 650 189 16,457 1,125 15,332

28,738 3,209 2,738 1,767 94 971 866 472 350 122 25,528 4,500 21,028

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

295 0 2,834 103

1,057 0 3,619 7,852

1,070 0 3,449 10,097

1,178 0 3,141 12,306

1,265 0 3,423 16,498

1,275 0 3,176 25,562

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

740 671 421 171 0 250 108 249 0 17 69 0 69

3,057 623 168 95 5 73 69 455 350 105 2,434 0 2,434

4,785 228 193 159 3 34 34 35 0 35 4,557 100 4,457

4,914 261 189 137 16 52 52 72 0 72 4,653 300 4,353

8,180 351 351 148 5 204 204 0 0 0 7,828 725 7,103

16,101 367 367 174 4 193 193 0 0 0 15,734 3,475 12,259

.. ..

.. ..

107 0

50 0

114 0

92 0

71 0

60 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

105 95 27 0 0 27 0 68 0 0 11 0 11

2,153 216 133 31 0 102 9 83 0 30 1,937 0 1,937

2,623 254 161 71 0 90 10 93 0 37 2,369 100 2,269

3,388 644 176 83 1 93 11 468 350 91 2,744 0 2,744

4,509 272 200 118 1 82 14 72 0 58 4,237 0 4,237

7,868 690 311 218 1 93 15 379 300 69 7,177 100 7,077

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

20 0

47 0

56 0

75 0

87 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

102 100 59 15 0 44 2 41 0 0 1 0 1

713 235 124 82 1 42 10 112 90 14 477 11 466

685 245 111 78 1 33 11 134 109 17 440 11 429

666 229 104 77 1 27 11 125 109 14 437 27 411

723 195 105 73 2 32 19 90 80 10 528 99 429

811 186 96 70 1 26 17 90 80 10 624 96 528

.. ..

.. ..

14 0

62 0

53 0

51 0

48 0

44 0

217

KAZAKHSTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 8.9 0.0 0.0 6.9

.. 13.8 0.6 0.0 61.2

3.6 12.8 0.6 0.0 63.7

2.9 14.3 0.6 0.0 59.7

2.2 18.6 0.5 0.0 56.8

1.6 24.2 0.4 0.0 50.8

.. 0 0 152 .. 0 0 147 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 5 .. 0 0 5 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 18 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 961 6,304 2,455 .. .. 868 1,057 2,543 .. .. -222 -162 -125 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,403 2,026 154

5,464 4,662 177

9,557 8,973 65

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.5 13.4 4.3 22.4

8.3 13.2 6.5 14.6

3.8 16.8 4.3 36.3

4.9 6.7 3.2 20.3

1.9 22.1 6.7 56.0

1.8 24.6 5.1 58.8

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.5 14.3 4.5 23.8

3.0 27.6 8.4 55.2

3.8 17.3 4.4 37.0

3.2 5.1 5.1 25.8

1.9 22.1 6.7 56.0

1.8 24.6 5.1 58.8

.. .. 6.4 11.0 3.0 5.2 .. .. 5.9 6.0 8.2 7.0 .. .. 2.3 5.6 1.2 2.9 .. .. 10.4 -5.5 23.9 19.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,938 854

3,795 785

3,629 655

2,636 525

3,817 702

2,754 472

2,170 347

1,471 268

226 111

229 107

274 103

249 95

256 85

262 75

226 65

236 57

50 33

51 33

59 32

66 31

69 29

74 26

72 23

74 21

176 78

178 74

215 71

183 64

187 57

187 49

154 42

161 36

3,712 743

3,566 677

3,355 552

2,387 430

3,561 617

2,492 397

1,944 282

1,236 211

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed debt includes only registered private debt of National Bank of Kazakhstan. Short-term debt data have been revised from 2000 based on data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

218

KENYA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,181 3,189 2,670 519 522 470 11 11 0

7,055 5,639 4,759 880 482 934 95 49 46

7,309 6,302 5,857 445 374 634 31 23 9

6,145 5,220 5,045 175 127 798 47 18 29

5,561 4,854 4,745 109 99 608 40 26 14

6,169 5,316 5,268 49 88 765 66 57 8

6,860 5,821 5,797 24 112 927 38 36 2

6,826 5,988 5,978 10 103 735 3 0 3

4 0 4

72 22 50

6 2 4

142 41 101

159 80 79

196 138 58

49 38 11

18 3 14

572 447 125 383 304 79 279 90 238 164 39 35 41 621 469 117 35

777 640 136 457 352 105 613 294 333 230 26 78 280 791 582 131 78

677 677 0 605 566 39 78 6 299 261 2 36 -222 904 827 41 36

382 337 44 449 407 42 -27 41 142 100 1 41 -169 591 506 43 41

176 176 0 366 343 24 -373 -182 108 81 1 26 -480 474 423 24 26

367 367 0 393 375 18 104 130 111 91 0 19 -7 504 466 19 19

471 436 35 452 432 20 209 190 131 107 0 24 78 583 539 20 24

152 152 0 272 258 14 -276 -157 92 67 1 24 -368 364 325 15 24

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

366 143 29 0 195 117

1,322 288 57 0 977 207

391 111 32 6 242 221

238 -69 111 -6 202 138

110 -166 5 2 269 137

257 -8 28 3 234 168

407 4 82 1 321 175

317 -105 46 3 373 212

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

99 164 103

960 230 132

39 261 91

109 100 29

-19 81 48

90 91 76

268 107 33

219 67 31

12,911 3,027 517 4,171 1,065 -341

13,071 3,216 395 3,983 1,068 -137

14,870 3,625 494 4,374 1,482 68

15,958 4,247 494 5,274 1,520 -378

183.7 43.1 15.7 3.6 0.8 19.1 3.1 10.9 74.2 49.7

191.8 47.2 15.7 3.4 0.8 17.3 3.2 12.4 75.6 48.0

189.2 46.1 16.1 3.6 0.9 21.6 4.1 13.5 74.4 47.4

160.7 42.8 8.6 2.2 0.6 22.3 3.5 10.8 78.7 50.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

5,926 1,607 66 1,911 417 -115

8,224 2,233 139 3,128 236 -527

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

260.2 70.5 38.7 14.8 4.0 10.0 2.6 11.2 30.3 31.6

315.9 85.8 35.4 14.9 4.1 3.3 0.9 13.2 33.7 35.3

8,726 2,974 298 3,892 384 -400

12,575 2,821 538 3,941 898 -199

4. DEBT INDICATORS 245.8 83.8 30.4 10.1 3.4 5.3 1.2 8.7 52.7 39.7

219

217.9 48.9 20.9 5.0 1.1 14.6 2.7 13.0 66.7 46.1

KENYA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3,189 2,670 2,259 1,322 494 937 772 411 0 338 519 0 519

5,639 4,759 3,712 2,492 1,395 1,220 983 1,047 0 880 880 0 880

6,302 5,857 5,212 2,903 2,248 2,309 1,606 645 0 510 445 0 445

5,220 5,045 4,563 2,836 2,596 1,728 1,500 482 0 436 175 0 175

4,854 4,745 4,436 2,763 2,591 1,674 1,538 309 0 276 109 0 109

5,316 5,268 4,952 2,961 2,802 1,991 1,862 315 0 283 49 0 49

5,821 5,797 5,391 3,251 3,120 2,140 1,985 406 0 316 24 0 24

5,988 5,978 5,653 3,426 3,299 2,226 2,076 326 0 233 10 0 10

751 408 2,670 519

871 1,185 4,759 880

435 1,977 5,857 445

47 2,262 5,045 175

23 2,263 4,745 109

13 2,447 5,268 49

6 2,736 5,797 24

1 2,882 5,978 10

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

447 278 215 132 44 83 54 63 0 55 169 0 169

640 585 404 297 264 106 105 182 0 119 55 0 55

677 677 545 219 181 326 326 132 0 72 0 0 0

337 337 252 196 184 56 56 85 0 77 0 0 0

176 176 171 127 125 44 17 5 0 0 0 0 0

367 367 231 72 70 160 160 135 0 131 0 0 0

436 436 163 123 123 40 40 273 0 169 0 0 0

152 152 143 125 104 18 18 9 0 9 0 0 0

77 35

3 234

0 159

0 170

0 116

0 66

0 122

0 78

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

304 218 80 45 3 35 17 139 0 98 86 0 86

352 315 180 127 9 53 25 135 0 114 37 0 37

566 481 271 150 18 120 51 210 0 164 85 0 85

407 362 241 112 36 129 40 121 0 108 45 0 45

343 277 194 94 41 100 32 83 0 75 66 0 66

375 315 173 82 49 92 67 141 0 138 60 0 60

432 407 253 109 59 145 126 154 0 146 25 0 25

258 244 137 96 62 41 27 107 0 106 14 0 14

34 2

95 4

100 9

40 29

22 35

12 42

8 48

5 52

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

164 126 88 62 5 25 13 39 0 29 38 0 38

230 193 134 100 9 34 14 59 0 52 38 0 38

261 220 167 77 17 89 42 53 0 45 41 0 41

100 81 55 38 20 17 10 27 0 23 19 0 19

81 67 50 30 18 19 14 18 0 15 13 0 13

91 83 60 29 21 30 25 23 0 21 8 0 8

107 106 83 35 23 49 45 23 0 21 1 0 1

67 66 55 33 26 22 16 11 0 10 1 0 1

52 3

78 7

43 14

7 16

3 16

1 17

1 19

0 22

220

KENYA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 5.1 8.1 0.0 29.8

.. 8.4 8.7 3.4 30.9

.. 18.6 3.8 4.2 35.8

.. 20.1 2.5 1.4 49.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 122 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 83 0 0 0 79 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 27 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 1 0 84 0 10 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 669 1,166 185 -330 279 613 78 -27 241 89 -253 -302 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

13.7 18.7 1.8 0.9 51.5

14.3 21.2 1.4 0.6 50.0

14.5 20.8 0.8 0.3 51.6

14.6 19.6 0.7 0.3 52.4

114 0 83 74 9 12 10 2 0 0 0 0

9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 9 0 9 1 0 1 1 0 0 0

147 0 106 104 2 40 37 3 2 0 0 0

-584 -373 -267

608 104 393

691 209 521

-34 -276 229

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

6.7 19.4 5.6 23.0

4.3 24.9 7.4 44.6

2.9 25.9 6.8 49.3

1.1 38.6 9.9 76.2

3.5 23.5 5.4 45.6

3.8 11.0 2.3 25.4

1.9 27.1 6.4 56.5

0.8 40.1 10.0 78.4

4.1 24.9 8.1 42.8

3.1 29.6 8.4 56.7

2.1 35.7 9.8 66.8

1.1 39.0 10.0 77.1

1.9 34.1 8.7 67.7

0.9 31.0 8.0 69.6

1.4 35.1 8.9 71.2

0.8 40.1 10.0 78.4

4.8 3.7 0.2 9.2

3.0 6.8 0.3 19.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.5 7.4 4.8 7.5 4.9 13.6 12.8 5.2 5.9 13.4 3.0 4.9 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.4 13.2 12.4 6.7 24.8 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

342 105

320 102

316 99

305 92

276 86

275 80

292 74

300 68

262 93

264 93

273 92

275 86

251 81

256 76

278 71

285 66

166 60

161 60

168 60

169 55

146 51

140 47

151 43

150 39

97 33

102 33

105 32

106 31

106 30

116 29

126 28

134 27

79 12

56 9

43 7

30 6

25 5

19 4

15 3

15 2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are actual, based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

221

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

609 472 472 0 124 13 11 11 0

1,827 1,510 1,220 290 188 129 10 9 1

1,717 1,490 1,257 234 179 48 3 3 0

1,851 1,647 1,398 250 185 19 10 1 8

2,027 1,787 1,588 199 202 39 3 1 1

2,100 1,885 1,741 145 207 7 3 3 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

11 11 0

28 25 3

2 1 1

10 4 6

8 6 1

12 7 6

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

201 155 46 36 36 0 165 0 24 20 4 0 141 60 56 4 0

180 161 19 97 86 11 152 69 76 69 2 5 76 173 155 14 5

139 124 15 128 111 17 -64 -75 49 44 2 3 -113 177 155 19 3

156 141 15 99 76 24 22 -35 30 27 1 1 -8 129 103 25 1

142 112 30 131 99 32 38 27 28 27 1 1 10 159 125 33 1

154 126 28 131 99 32 -9 -32 30 28 1 0 -39 161 127 33 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

269 119 96 0 54 29

117 75 -2 0 44 38

53 13 5 0 35 42

111 66 5 0 41 72

105 14 46 0 46 68

155 27 77 0 51 111

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

249 20 0

10 69 37

-17 44 26

64 27 20

52 27 27

69 28 57

1,286 592 9 755 262 -78

1,462 577 11 647 287 -24

1,548 677 37 784 317 -49

1,857 821 78 943 399 -81

2,115 1,132 189 1,237 565 -75

308.7 142.1 29.3 12.8 5.9 14.3 4.2 7.1 48.1 39.5

297.7 117.5 30.7 8.5 3.3 16.7 5.3 2.8 56.6 44.9

273.5 119.5 19.0 4.4 1.9 17.1 4.9 1.0 62.5 47.9

247.0 109.2 19.4 3.5 1.5 19.7 5.1 1.9 68.0 50.1

185.4 99.3 14.2 2.6 1.4 26.9 5.5 0.4 74.5 53.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,626 453 1 765 134 -235

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

134.5 37.5 13.2 5.2 1.4 21.9 2.1 2.1 60.2 30.3

222

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

472 472 472 184 174 288 193 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,510 1,220 1,184 722 647 461 233 37 0 28 290 0 290

1,490 1,257 1,222 770 702 452 269 35 0 23 234 0 234

1,647 1,398 1,388 887 826 501 330 10 0 0 250 0 250

1,787 1,588 1,580 1,016 967 564 411 8 0 0 199 0 199

1,885 1,741 1,734 1,132 1,092 602 473 6 0 0 145 0 145

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0 141 472 0

0 377 1,220 290

0 389 1,257 234

0 454 1,398 250

0 530 1,588 199

0 579 1,741 145

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

155 155 155 124 115 31 26 0 0 0 0 0 0

161 153 149 107 97 42 42 4 0 0 8 0 8

124 115 113 92 91 20 20 2 0 0 10 0 10

141 80 80 67 67 13 13 0 0 0 61 0 61

112 80 80 65 65 15 15 0 0 0 32 0 32

126 93 93 83 83 10 10 0 0 0 32 0 32

.. ..

.. ..

0 81

0 52

0 27

0 33

0 32

0 25

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

36 36 36 30 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

86 17 13 8 0 5 1 4 0 2 69 0 69

111 30 22 8 0 13 1 8 0 5 82 0 82

76 32 9 9 0 0 0 24 0 23 43 0 43

99 13 13 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 86 0 86

99 13 13 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 86 0 86

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 1

0 2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

20 20 20 3 1 17 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

69 23 20 11 5 10 6 2 0 2 47 0 47

44 21 18 11 6 8 4 2 0 2 23 0 23

27 13 13 10 7 3 1 1 0 0 14 0 14

27 12 12 10 8 1 1 0 0 0 15 0 15

28 13 13 11 9 2 2 0 0 0 15 0 15

.. ..

.. ..

0 1

0 3

0 3

0 3

0 4

0 5

223

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 14.3 0.0 1.3 51.4

.. 15.0 0.0 0.0 67.9

2.2 13.6 0.0 0.0 69.8

2.5 14.1 0.0 0.0 68.7

3.1 14.5 0.0 0.0 67.7

3.3 14.4 0.0 0.0 68.2

.. 0 32 108 .. 0 0 45 .. 0 22 49 .. 0 22 49 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 1 13 .. 0 1 13 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 163 92 -110 .. .. 165 152 -64 .. .. -24 -67 -68 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

25 0 14 12 2 11 11 0 0 0 0 0

42 0 28 26 2 12 12 0 0 0 0 0

46 0 30 27 2 9 9 0 0 0 0 0

133 22 96

176 38 125

73 -9 67

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.7 28.9 8.1 50.4

1.0 35.8 9.5 76.4

1.3 28.2 9.0 68.7

1.2 31.4 8.4 70.9

1.2 34.2 8.8 71.8

1.2 34.4 8.8 73.6

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.7 28.9 8.1 50.4

1.0 35.8 9.5 76.4

1.3 28.4 9.1 69.1

1.2 31.4 8.4 70.9

1.2 34.2 8.8 71.8

1.2 34.4 8.8 73.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 0.0 3.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 8.4 .. .. 0.0 0.0 2.9 .. .. 0.0 0.0 28.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

114 39

74 35

68 36

73 36

80 35

103 33

70 31

75 29

49 31

52 33

58 34

69 34

78 34

76 32

68 30

69 29

30 18

32 18

32 18

34 17

37 15

37 14

26 13

26 12

19 13

21 15

26 16

36 18

40 18

40 18

42 17

43 17

65 8

21 3

9 2

4 2

2 2

26 1

2 1

5 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

224

LAO PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

619 606 606 0 10 2 2 1 1

1,768 1,757 1,757 0 8 2 0 0 0

2,165 2,091 2,091 0 64 10 0 0 0

2,502 2,453 2,453 0 42 7 0 0 0

2,495 2,456 2,456 0 37 1 0 0 0

2,665 2,620 2,620 0 43 1 0 0 0

1,941 1,896 1,896 0 44 1 0 0 0

2,056 2,013 2,013 0 38 5 0 0 0

5 2 3

1 1 0

0 0 0

1 1 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

40 40 0 6 4 2 34 0 1 1 0 0 33 7 5 2 0

152 152 0 6 5 1 147 1 3 3 0 0 144 9 8 1 0

110 92 18 19 17 2 90 -1 7 6 0 1 83 26 23 2 1

82 82 0 31 23 8 55 4 10 9 0 0 45 41 32 8 0

107 101 6 33 24 9 68 -6 10 10 0 0 58 44 34 10 0

97 85 12 34 25 9 63 0 11 10 0 0 52 45 35 9 0

110 104 6 38 29 9 72 0 12 12 0 0 60 50 40 9 0

81 81 0 39 31 8 47 4 14 14 0 0 33 53 45 8 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

50 36 -2 0 15 14

199 146 6 0 47 30

299 75 95 0 130 75

228 59 34 0 135 74

194 77 24 0 93 79

200 60 25 0 115 82

218 75 19 0 123 80

181 50 17 0 114 78

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

49 1 0

196 3 0

288 6 6

219 9 0

184 10 0

190 10 0

206 12 0

167 14 0

1,660 513 1 638 144 -8

1,694 483 1 599 151 -82

1,749 434 1 505 216 ..

2,018 481 1 551 257 ..

2,356 .. 1 .. 275 ..

487.5 150.7 7.9 1.9 0.6 5.7 2.7 0.3 98.0 41.6

516.4 147.2 9.0 2.1 0.6 6.0 3.0 0.0 98.4 42.0

614.3 152.4 10.3 2.4 0.6 8.1 5.1 0.0 98.3 45.9

403.3 96.2 10.3 2.5 0.6 13.3 5.6 0.1 97.7 72.8

.. 87.3 .. .. 0.6 13.4 .. 0.2 97.9 74.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,349 75 4 239 .. -114

864 105 11 215 8 -55

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

826.0 26.3 9.2 1.4 0.0 .. .. 0.3 97.4 10.3

1,690.3 204.5 8.7 2.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 99.1 15.1

1,763 415 22 761 99 -237

4. DEBT INDICATORS 521.5 122.8 6.3 1.6 0.4 4.6 1.6 0.5 96.4 28.7

225

LAO PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

606 606 603 64 64 539 539 4 0 0 0 0 0

1,757 1,757 1,757 266 266 1,491 1,485 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,091 2,091 2,091 620 620 1,471 1,466 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,453 2,453 2,453 1,041 1,041 1,412 1,410 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,456 2,456 2,456 1,049 1,049 1,407 1,406 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,620 2,620 2,620 1,223 1,223 1,397 1,397 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,896 1,896 1,896 1,412 1,412 483 483 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,013 2,013 2,013 1,540 1,540 473 473 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 27 606 0

0 131 1,757 0

0 285 2,091 0

0 403 2,453 0

0 415 2,456 0

0 473 2,620 0

0 561 1,896 0

0 616 2,013 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

40 40 40 9 9 31 31 0 0 0 0 0 0

152 152 152 78 78 74 74 0 0 0 0 0 0

92 92 92 92 92 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

82 82 82 73 73 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

101 101 101 88 88 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

85 85 85 85 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

104 104 104 104 104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

81 81 81 81 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 32

0 28

0 20

0 31

0 33

0 48

0 37

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4 4 4 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 17 17 4 4 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 23 23 9 9 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 24 11 11 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 25 12 12 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 29 29 16 16 13 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 31 31 20 20 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 1

0 4

0 4

0 6

0 7

0 8

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 9 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 1

0 2

0 3

0 3

0 3

0 4

0 5

226

LAO PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.0 0.0 0.0 5.0

.. 1.5 0.0 0.0 7.1

.. 1.1 0.0 0.0 13.1

.. 1.2 0.0 0.0 17.4

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 100 296 85 -25 34 147 90 55 56 141 -31 -73 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 19.1

0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 21.9

0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 38.1

0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 41.2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 905 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-8 68 -70

170 63 100

-723 72 134

115 47 67

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.2 31.2 26.8 91.7

0.9 39.9 10.0 79.0

2.5 37.1 9.7 62.0

1.4 31.6 8.1 69.9

1.2 32.9 8.8 72.4

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.5

1.2 32.2 8.5 71.5

1.1 35.6 9.1 75.2

0.2 31.2 26.8 91.7

0.9 39.9 10.0 79.0

2.5 37.1 9.7 62.0

1.4 31.6 8.1 69.9

1.2 32.9 8.8 72.4

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.5

1.2 32.2 8.5 71.5

1.1 35.6 9.1 75.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

58 15

49 19

53 22

63 22

68 22

73 22

79 22

82 21

58 15

49 19

53 22

63 22

68 22

73 22

79 22

82 21

35 0

22 0

22 0

22 0

22 0

22 0

22 0

22 0

23 15

27 18

31 21

41 22

47 22

51 22

57 21

60 21

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates and based on reports provided by the country and include both convertible and nonconvertible currency obligations. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

227

LATVIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

463 271 271 0 160 31 0 0 0

4,855 1,979 827 1,151 35 2,842 0 0 0

5,293 2,234 978 1,256 24 3,035 0 0 0

6,808 2,630 1,124 1,507 16 4,163 0 0 0

8,803 3,166 1,238 1,928 6 5,632 0 0 0

12,661 5,008 1,587 3,421 0 7,653 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

75 75 0 10 7 3 90 25 24 14 9 1 66 34 21 12 1

410 410 0 330 319 10 848 767 270 107 2 161 578 599 426 12 161

960 960 0 645 635 10 508 193 199 92 1 106 309 845 727 11 106

580 580 0 490 480 10 1,218 1,128 160 95 1 64 1,058 650 575 10 64

900 900 0 752 741 11 1,393 1,245 182 122 0 60 1,211 934 863 11 60

2,434 2,434 0 1,059 1,053 6 3,397 2,022 316 117 0 199 3,080 1,375 1,170 6 199

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

272 68 180 0 24 38

564 91 413 -7 68 15

537 324 132 1 80 13

445 100 254 23 68 10

589 159 292 39 99 15

2,252 1,381 699 23 149 17

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

257 14 0

365 107 92

347 92 99

245 95 105

265 122 201

1,607 117 528

7,752 3,447 72 4,011 919 -371

8,277 3,702 112 4,470 1,217 -626

9,197 4,075 138 4,960 1,327 -624

10,995 5,047 173 6,486 1,536 -910

13,761 6,503 230 8,952 2,021 -1,766

140.8 62.6 17.4 7.8 3.5 18.9 2.7 58.5 1.0 11.2

143.0 64.0 22.8 5.4 2.4 23.0 3.3 57.3 0.8 10.2

167.1 74.0 16.0 3.9 1.7 19.5 3.2 61.1 0.9 8.9

174.4 80.1 18.5 3.6 1.7 17.5 2.8 64.0 0.9 7.3

194.7 92.0 21.1 4.9 2.3 16.0 2.7 60.4 0.7 3.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

5,256 2,159 0 2,246 602 -16

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

21.4 8.8 1.6 1.1 0.5 130.1 3.2 6.7 12.7 30.1

228

LATVIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

271 271 200 139 0 61 59 71 39 0 0 0 0

1,979 827 591 543 0 49 48 236 209 2 1,151 0 1,151

2,234 978 582 539 0 43 42 397 375 2 1,256 0 1,256

2,630 1,124 660 606 11 54 53 464 446 1 1,507 0 1,507

3,166 1,238 687 640 29 47 47 551 537 0 1,928 0 1,928

5,008 1,587 453 407 38 46 46 1,134 1,124 0 3,421 6 3,414

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

55 0 252 19

242 0 818 1,160

243 0 964 1,270

263 0 1,103 1,528

185 0 1,215 1,950

187 0 1,565 3,442

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

75 75 26 23 0 3 1 49 43 0 0 0 0

410 94 91 91 0 1 1 3 0 0 316 0 316

960 242 61 57 0 4 4 181 179 0 718 0 718

580 55 55 44 11 11 11 0 0 0 525 0 525

900 60 60 57 17 3 3 0 0 0 839 0 839

2,434 559 62 62 7 0 0 497 497 0 1,874 6 1,868

.. ..

.. ..

9 0

63 0

22 0

14 0

3 0

6 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

7 7 4 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0

319 81 73 53 0 19 18 8 0 1 239 30 209

635 50 45 39 0 5 5 6 0 1 585 0 585

480 52 46 41 0 5 5 6 0 1 428 0 428

741 138 133 117 0 16 16 5 0 1 603 0 603

1,053 318 314 311 0 3 3 4 0 0 735 0 735

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

9 0

11 0

16 0

109 0

14 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

14 14 13 9 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0

107 50 34 31 0 3 3 16 15 0 57 2 55

92 47 34 32 0 2 2 13 12 0 45 0 45

95 48 31 29 0 2 2 17 16 0 47 0 47

122 53 36 34 0 2 2 18 17 0 69 0 69

117 55 36 34 1 2 2 19 19 0 62 0 62

.. ..

.. ..

3 0

12 0

13 0

11 0

13 0

6 0

229

LATVIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 26.2 0.0 0.0 45.0

.. 4.7 0.0 0.6 20.0

69.9 3.2 0.0 0.4 16.2

73.1 2.7 0.0 0.3 15.1

82.2 1.4 0.0 0.2 15.6

86.5 0.9 0.0 0.2 12.0

.. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 89 794 438 .. .. 90 848 508 .. .. 5 -49 -28 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,515 1,218 125

1,994 1,393 164

3,858 3,397 75

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.2 9.1 3.3 19.2

5.8 14.7 5.8 23.8

4.9 8.8 6.5 26.2

2.4 18.4 5.4 49.9

2.6 14.1 3.9 38.8

4.3 10.0 10.0 35.3

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.3 14.1 4.1 25.3

5.8 14.7 5.8 23.8

2.5 19.0 4.0 47.1

2.4 18.4 5.4 49.9

2.6 14.1 3.9 38.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.3 10.0 10.0 35.3

.. .. 5.1 0.0 5.4 .. .. 4.0 0.0 7.0 .. .. 2.5 0.0 7.0 .. .. 13.2 0.0 22.5 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

963 218

721 157

629 111

669 95

319 71

589 61

211 42

173 36

47 16

46 15

48 14

50 13

49 11

80 10

42 7

36 6

3 2

3 2

3 2

3 2

3 2

38 1

0 0

0 0

44 14

43 13

45 12

46 11

46 10

43 8

42 7

36 6

915 202

675 142

581 98

619 83

270 60

509 51

169 35

137 31

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country.

230

LEBANON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

870 400 400 0 0 470 6 0 6

1,779 358 358 0 0 1,421 39 16 23

2,966 1,600 1,550 50 0 1,365 10 0 10

9,856 7,315 6,579 736 0 2,541 0 0 0

12,446 9,788 8,952 836 0 2,658 0 0 0

17,077 14,530 13,829 701 0 2,547 0 0 0

18,598 15,474 14,778 696 0 3,124 0 0 0

22,177 18,206 17,460 746 0 3,971 0 0 0

31 0 31

132 28 104

43 2 41

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

36 36 0 60 60 0 -15 9 66 29 0 37 -80 126 89 0 37

12 12 0 27 27 0 726 742 72 11 0 61 654 99 38 0 61

907 907 0 104 104 0 830 26 121 54 0 67 709 224 158 0 67

2,315 2,315 0 876 876 0 1,778 339 593 461 0 132 1,185 1,469 1,337 0 132

3,261 3,261 0 684 684 0 2,694 117 778 646 0 132 1,916 1,462 1,330 0 132

5,649 5,649 0 1,114 1,114 0 4,424 -111 1,073 963 0 110 3,351 2,188 2,078 0 110

2,434 2,434 0 1,820 1,820 0 1,190 577 1,431 1,276 0 155 -241 3,252 3,097 0 155

5,499 5,499 0 2,922 2,922 0 3,424 847 1,429 1,244 0 185 1,996 4,350 4,165 0 185

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

37 -24 7 0 54 34

203 -16 6 0 213 39

883 804 35 0 44 94

1,870 1,439 298 0 133 55

2,939 2,577 249 0 113 63

4,939 4,535 257 0 147 78

1,078 614 358 0 106 101

3,006 2,577 288 0 141 111

8 29 0

192 11 0

829 54 0

1,408 461 0

2,293 646 0

3,976 963 0

-198 1,276 0

1,763 1,244 0

17,971 3,470 2,307 7,369 7,564 -3,407

17,875 3,802 2,500 7,209 10,405 -3,348

18,672 4,922 2,700 8,446 16,367 -3,382

20,686 .. 2,700 .. 15,774 ..

358.7 69.3 42.1 22.4 4.3 60.8 12.3 21.4 4.4 5.3

449.2 95.5 57.5 28.2 6.0 60.9 17.3 14.9 3.2 4.2

377.9 99.6 66.1 29.1 7.7 88.0 23.3 16.8 6.3 4.3

.. 107.2 .. .. 6.9 71.1 .. 17.9 5.6 3.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. 0 .. 4,089 ..

3,461 3,023 1,818 2,908 4,210 115

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. 470.3 .. 54.0 9.9 11.0

58.8 51.4 3.3 2.4 2.1 236.7 17.4 79.9 6.2 4.7

11,611 2,897 1,225 7,607 8,100 -4,665

17,474 3,385 1,582 6,484 8,475 -3,046

4. DEBT INDICATORS 102.4 25.5 7.7 4.2 1.0 273.1 12.8 46.0 9.2 6.7

231

291.2 56.4 43.4 17.5 3.4 86.0 15.7 25.8 5.7 6.2

LEBANON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

400 400 289 96 32 194 54 110 0 0 0 0 0

358 358 188 84 30 104 81 169 0 0 0 0 0

1,600 1,550 428 198 63 230 209 1,123 700 359 50 50 0

7,315 6,579 931 616 288 315 276 5,648 5,260 374 736 736 0

9,788 8,952 954 663 286 291 256 7,998 7,612 374 836 836 0

14,530 13,829 1,010 720 285 289 253 12,820 12,517 291 701 701 0

15,474 14,778 1,737 806 281 931 895 13,041 12,800 231 696 696 0

18,206 17,460 1,810 841 297 969 936 15,650 15,453 189 746 746 0

36 0 400 0

34 0 358 0

113 0 1,550 50

248 0 6,553 762

259 0 8,926 862

313 0 13,812 718

362 0 14,778 696

387 0 17,460 746

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

36 36 36 10 4 27 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 5 0 0 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0

907 857 213 80 21 133 125 644 300 340 50 50 0

2,315 2,200 118 102 52 16 15 2,082 2,031 51 115 115 0

3,261 3,061 123 107 31 16 15 2,937 2,900 37 200 200 0

5,649 5,509 88 79 14 10 9 5,421 5,420 1 140 140 0

2,434 2,274 679 102 14 577 577 1,595 1,590 4 160 160 0

5,499 5,299 102 87 38 15 15 5,197 5,195 2 200 200 0

4 0

0 0

51 0

42 0

48 0

65 0

57 0

49 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

60 60 30 9 2 20 4 30 0 27 0 0 0

27 27 27 6 0 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

104 104 93 10 3 83 10 11 0 9 0 0 0

876 826 66 39 18 27 21 760 400 358 50 50 0

684 584 49 29 2 20 16 534 500 32 100 100 0

1,114 839 95 66 22 29 25 744 659 84 275 275 0

1,820 1,655 99 75 25 23 18 1,557 1,477 78 165 165 0

2,922 2,772 109 74 22 35 29 2,663 2,612 49 150 150 0

4 0

6 0

4 0

17 0

24 0

29 0

34 0

35 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

29 29 23 7 2 16 2 6 0 2 0 0 0

11 11 9 4 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

54 54 19 11 3 8 3 35 20 12 0 0 0

461 405 45 33 13 12 8 360 300 58 57 57 0

646 582 28 20 2 7 5 554 536 16 65 65 0

963 892 39 28 8 12 7 853 806 46 71 71 0

1,276 1,215 61 34 11 27 20 1,154 1,118 35 61 61 0

1,244 1,187 79 34 11 45 38 1,108 1,080 27 57 57 0

3 0

4 0

7 0

14 0

15 0

14 0

15 0

14 0

232

LEBANON (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.3 0.6 0.4 65.5

.. 0.5 0.7 0.5 41.0

.. 0.0 0.1 0.0 69.2

.. 0.1 0.0 0.0 71.3

12.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 79.1

8.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.5

13.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 81.3

11.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 84.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 9 755 839 1,651 2,590 -15 726 830 1,778 2,694 22 17 19 -88 -76 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4,631 4,424 250

1,521 1,190 263

3,579 3,424 167

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.0 12.0 5.1 4.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.0 10.4 4.2 10.2

9.0 5.5 4.7 3.7

10.0 6.7 6.5 -0.9

7.1 9.8 3.5 17.9

3.4 11.2 3.9 25.9

7.1 5.7 5.7 11.7

9.0 12.0 5.1 4.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.6 18.6 3.8 26.7

7.5 14.7 5.2 14.0

3.2 17.0 1.8 37.3

3.5 17.6 7.2 43.3

4.8 15.3 3.8 29.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 9.0 9.1 10.1 7.2 0.0 0.0 7.2 4.9 6.6 9.5 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.7 6.6 3.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.0 -1.3 17.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

2.8 9.4 4.0 24.3

7.1 5.7 5.7 11.7

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2,684 1,185

2,522 967

972 862

2,005 772

2,605 651

2,167 425

1,586 294

1,152 230

140 83

224 80

207 74

209 68

223 62

222 54

210 45

176 37

37 44

66 44

94 41

93 37

97 35

93 31

91 27

86 24

103 39

158 36

113 33

116 31

126 27

129 23

119 18

90 14

2,544 1,102

2,298 886

765 788

1,796 704

2,382 589

1,945 371

1,376 249

976 193

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

233

LESOTHO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

175.3 167.4 167.4 0.0 3.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

395.6 377.7 377.7 0.0 15.1 2.8 0.8 0.5 0.3

684.4 642.0 642.0 0.0 38.4 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

671.8 656.7 656.7 0.0 11.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

597.7 578.5 578.5 0.0 15.2 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

657.8 631.8 631.8 0.0 22.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

706.5 676.0 676.0 0.0 26.6 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

763.6 725.6 725.6 0.0 38.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0

3.6 2.0 1.6

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

43.0 43.0 0.0 14.5 13.7 0.8 28.5 0.0 4.6 4.2 0.0 0.3 23.9 19.1 17.9 0.9 0.3

62.0 57.9 4.1 15.0 14.8 0.2 47.0 0.0 8.3 8.0 0.1 0.2 38.7 23.3 22.8 0.3 0.2

70.4 70.4 0.0 24.7 22.0 2.7 45.7 0.0 16.1 15.7 0.2 0.2 29.6 40.9 37.7 3.0 0.2

69.4 69.4 0.0 38.3 33.2 5.2 31.0 0.0 23.2 22.9 0.0 0.2 7.8 61.5 56.1 5.2 0.2

38.5 29.5 8.9 50.9 46.6 4.3 -12.4 0.0 17.8 17.5 0.1 0.1 -30.2 68.6 64.1 4.4 0.1

57.3 48.3 9.1 53.2 49.4 3.8 4.2 0.0 14.9 14.7 0.1 0.1 -10.7 68.0 64.1 3.9 0.1

31.3 26.4 4.9 52.7 50.2 2.5 -21.4 0.0 14.3 14.2 0.1 0.0 -35.7 67.0 64.3 2.7 0.0

42.8 32.5 10.4 37.9 37.3 0.6 1.0 -4.0 14.9 14.8 0.2 0.0 -13.9 52.8 52.1 0.7 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

74.1 29.3 0.0 0.0 44.8 31.3

120.0 43.1 17.0 0.0 59.9 44.5

382.2 48.4 275.0 0.0 58.7 36.8

181.8 36.2 118.0 0.0 27.6 11.3

130.5 -17.0 117.0 0.0 30.5 13.6

125.6 -1.1 84.0 0.0 42.7 12.1

143.1 -23.7 116.0 0.0 50.8 14.9

179.3 -4.8 123.5 0.0 61.2 15.0

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

65.8 4.2 4.1

99.3 8.0 12.7

295.0 15.7 71.4

143.8 22.9 15.0

96.9 17.5 16.0

99.2 14.7 11.7

114.5 14.2 14.4

144.0 14.8 20.6

937.8 555.7 209.0 784.2 386.5 -95.1

860.5 608.7 194.0 847.3 406.4 -126.7

1,324.2 840.6 288.0 1,133.8 460.3 -134.7

1,630.8 1,164.6 355.0 1,474.4 502.8 -76.0

107.6 63.7 12.4 3.2 1.9 64.7 5.9 0.7 72.0 77.8

108.1 76.4 11.2 2.4 1.7 61.8 5.8 0.6 74.5 75.2

84.1 53.4 8.0 1.7 1.1 65.2 4.9 0.6 76.0 74.8

65.6 46.8 4.5 1.3 0.9 65.8 4.1 0.0 77.0 73.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

520.6 282.8 224.0 368.5 43.5 -12.1

1,021.6 555.0 428.0 775.9 72.4 65.0

62.0 33.7 6.7 1.6 0.9 24.8 1.4 2.3 75.6 82.1

71.3 38.7 4.2 1.5 0.8 18.3 1.1 0.7 73.7 73.6

1,321.9 671.4 411.0 1,203.8 456.7 -323.0

1,078.7 542.7 252.0 832.8 417.9 -151.4

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

101.9 51.8 6.1 2.4 1.2 66.7 4.6 0.6 68.7 68.2

234

123.8 62.3 11.3 4.3 2.1 62.2 6.0 0.6 66.7 70.8

LESOTHO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

167.4 167.4 159.6 143.8 120.6 15.7 12.0 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

377.7 377.7 344.0 291.0 251.6 53.1 40.1 33.7 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

642.0 642.0 607.1 466.9 374.8 140.1 95.3 34.9 0.0 22.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

656.7 656.7 580.9 475.7 389.6 105.3 58.6 75.8 0.0 74.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

578.5 578.5 520.8 465.0 385.5 55.8 44.6 57.7 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

631.8 631.8 568.9 494.5 431.5 74.4 58.7 62.9 0.0 61.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

676.0 676.0 605.7 528.4 476.8 77.3 59.8 70.3 0.0 69.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

725.6 725.6 654.7 562.5 513.9 92.2 74.1 70.9 0.0 68.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 62.3 166.3 1.1

0.0 111.7 376.5 1.2

54.0 152.8 641.3 0.7

58.6 183.2 656.4 0.3

54.9 187.1 578.3 0.2

36.7 217.8 631.7 0.1

18.6 247.3 676.0 0.0

16.2 267.6 725.6 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

43.0 43.0 39.4 35.7 20.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

57.9 57.9 51.4 32.0 28.3 19.4 15.2 6.5 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

70.4 70.4 54.5 41.1 23.7 13.4 4.2 16.0 0.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

69.4 69.4 67.4 21.2 10.9 46.2 17.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

29.5 29.5 27.2 23.1 19.7 4.1 3.9 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

48.3 48.3 48.3 34.0 30.5 14.3 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

26.4 26.4 24.1 24.1 21.5 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 31.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 8.2

0.0 9.2

11.2 8.8

9.9 7.8

3.2 12.7

3.5 22.2

2.6 15.6

1.2 14.7

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

13.7 13.7 4.2 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 9.4 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.8 14.8 8.3 5.4 3.0 2.9 0.9 6.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

22.0 22.0 17.8 14.1 9.1 3.7 1.7 4.2 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

33.2 33.2 26.4 14.1 7.2 12.2 5.2 6.8 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

46.6 46.6 39.5 16.3 8.8 23.3 22.2 7.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

49.4 49.4 41.4 35.6 9.0 5.8 4.7 8.0 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

50.2 50.2 41.7 33.5 10.5 8.3 6.7 8.4 0.0 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

37.3 37.3 28.7 17.8 12.3 10.9 9.1 8.6 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.6

0.0 1.3

3.9 2.5

4.0 3.2

24.7 3.7

21.2 4.0

3.6 4.6

4.2 4.2 3.1 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.0 8.0 6.1 4.7 2.1 1.4 0.6 1.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.7 15.7 12.4 8.6 3.1 3.8 1.6 3.3 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

22.9 22.9 16.0 7.7 3.3 8.3 5.1 7.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.5 17.5 11.3 6.9 3.0 4.4 3.3 6.2 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.7 14.7 8.9 7.2 3.6 1.7 0.7 5.8 0.0 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.2 14.2 7.3 5.6 4.0 1.7 0.7 6.9 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.8 14.8 7.7 5.4 4.3 2.3 0.7 7.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.8

3.5 1.1

3.2 1.4

3.0 1.4

2.6 1.5

0.7 1.7

0.3 2.1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

235

LESOTHO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 5.0 0.0 33.6

.. 0.0 1.7 0.0 24.8

.. 0.0 0.8 0.0 22.1

.. 0.0 1.8 1.9 26.9

10.7 0.0 1.8 0.7 31.2

10.9 0.0 1.5 0.5 33.5

11.5 0.0 1.3 0.7 35.2

10.7 0.0 1.1 0.5 34.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 37.3 67.4 61.8 -10.2 -74.1 28.5 47.0 45.7 31.0 -12.4 -1.8 7.2 1.5 -27.0 -25.5 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

60.1 4.2 42.7

48.7 -21.4 34.2

57.1 1.0 22.4

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.4 34.1 7.1 51.7

1.3 24.3 6.0 63.2

6.3 22.0 4.8 26.8

0.4 17.6 5.2 50.3

0.8 42.9 13.4 82.8

1.5 40.9 8.6 71.3

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

1.3 34.7 7.8 69.8

3.5 38.1 8.0 55.4

1.0 25.1 6.2 65.9

5.9 27.5 5.7 33.7

0.3 18.0 5.4 51.6

0.8 42.9 13.4 82.8

1.5 40.9 8.6 71.3

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

1.3 34.7 7.8 69.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.0 8.4 6.5 4.6 0.0 11.2 5.9 17.6 2.0 0.0 1.7 1.8 4.1 0.5 0.0 30.3 4.3 21.2 5.9 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

56.2 15.6

54.7 14.6

33.7 13.7

31.1 13.0

27.8 12.4

26.3 11.9

27.1 11.5

28.1 11.1

46.9 7.9

45.7 7.6

28.3 7.2

27.6 6.8

27.1 6.4

26.0 6.0

26.9 5.6

27.9 5.1

23.7 2.4

23.6 2.1

7.1 1.9

6.4 1.6

5.9 1.3

4.7 1.1

4.4 1.0

4.3 0.8

23.2 5.5

22.1 5.4

21.2 5.4

21.2 5.2

21.2 5.0

21.4 4.8

22.4 4.6

23.6 4.3

9.3 7.7

9.0 7.1

5.4 6.5

3.5 6.2

0.7 6.0

0.2 6.0

0.2 6.0

0.2 6.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

236

LIBERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,243 885 885 0 253 105 55 23 31

1,849 1,116 1,116 0 322 411 355 251 104

2,154 1,161 1,161 0 336 657 613 458 155

2,032 1,040 1,040 0 292 699 665 516 149

2,164 1,012 1,012 0 281 871 841 697 144

2,324 1,065 1,065 0 304 956 926 778 148

2,567 1,127 1,127 0 332 1,108 1,076 922 153

2,706 1,168 1,168 0 347 1,191 1,146 991 155

126 35 91

722 530 192

961 754 208

1,053 856 197

1,175 986 189

1,137 941 196

1,236 1,032 204

1,296 1,089 207

62 62 0 15 8 7 55 8 25 10 11 4 30 40 19 18 4

0 0 0 2 1 1 -1 1 1 1 0 0 -2 3 2 1 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 -2 2 0 2 0

0 0 0 1 0 1 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 -5 1 0 1 0

0 0 0 1 0 1 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 -6 1 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 1 0 1 0 12 1 0 1 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

71 54 -16 0 34 29

59 -1 0 0 60 21

113 0 5 0 108 16

68 0 21 0 47 24

40 0 8 0 32 15

58 0 3 0 55 13

100 0 1 0 99 15

214 0 20 0 194 28

58 10 3

58 1 0

113 0 0

68 0 0

40 0 0

58 0 0

100 0 0

214 0 0

389 147 0 300 0 -84

403 153 0 305 0 -109

453 207 0 269 3 -6

358 147 0 209 7 -34

394 .. 0 .. 19 ..

1,382.2 523.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.4 27.9 19.5

1,416.1 537.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 40.2 25.7 17.7

1,125.1 513.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 41.1 25.0 17.5

1,751.4 717.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 43.2 23.9 16.9

.. 687.1 .. .. 0.2 0.7 .. 44.0 23.3 17.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

808 469 0 476 2 57

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. 28 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

265.1 153.9 8.6 5.3 3.1 0.1 0.0 8.4 36.8 23.9

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 22.2 32.1 23.4

.. .. .. .. .. 1.3 .. 30.5 29.5 21.0

237

LIBERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

885 885 713 297 125 417 332 171 0 156 0 0 0

1,116 1,116 924 433 184 491 410 192 0 172 0 0 0

1,161 1,161 954 453 214 501 421 208 0 187 0 0 0

1,040 1,040 843 395 194 448 374 197 0 180 0 0 0

1,012 1,012 823 383 191 440 366 189 0 172 0 0 0

1,065 1,065 869 407 197 462 385 196 0 177 0 0 0

1,127 1,127 923 434 204 488 410 204 0 184 0 0 0

1,168 1,168 961 460 209 501 421 207 0 186 0 0 0

101 76 885 0

143 105 1,116 0

161 108 1,161 0

130 100 1,040 0

123 98 1,012 0

137 102 1,065 0

152 108 1,127 0

152 111 1,168 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

62 62 62 48 20 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 12

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

8 8 8 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

10 10 10 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 1

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

238

LIBERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 5.2 1.4 0.0 60.5

.. 6.1 1.2 0.0 51.2

.. 7.7 1.2 0.0 49.4

.. 7.7 1.3 0.0 54.4

9.9 6.9 1.3 0.0 55.7

11.2 7.2 1.3 0.0 53.3

12.7 7.6 1.2 0.0 50.9

13.3 7.5 1.2 0.0 49.3

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 167 164 98 -46 132 55 -1 0 -5 -5 51 63 23 -32 -38 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

161 0 73

243 3 76

138 12 50

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.9 32.9 6.8 43.9

4.0 24.8 5.3 42.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 32.9 6.8 43.9

4.0 24.8 5.3 42.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20 4

20 4

17 3

16 3

14 3

13 2

13 2

13 2

20 4

20 4

17 3

16 3

14 3

13 2

13 2

13 2

12 2

12 2

9 1

8 1

6 1

5 1

5 1

5 1

8 2

8 2

8 2

8 2

8 2

8 1

8 1

8 1

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are estimates based on the original terms of the loans. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

239

LITHUANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

769 459 430 29 262 49 0 0 0

4,705 3,399 2,188 1,211 192 1,114 0 0 0

5,273 3,564 2,363 1,201 151 1,558 0 0 0

6,149 3,905 2,478 1,427 121 2,123 0 0 0

7,457 4,135 2,113 2,022 45 3,277 0 0 0

9,475 5,683 2,507 3,176 26 3,766 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

219 157 63 12 12 0 228 20 31 17 12 2 196 43 30 12 2

1,143 1,143 0 826 799 27 361 44 281 215 11 55 81 1,107 1,014 38 55

1,011 1,011 0 743 709 34 712 444 292 224 8 60 420 1,035 933 42 60

786 786 0 942 902 40 409 565 357 263 4 90 52 1,299 1,165 44 90

1,422 1,422 0 1,829 1,746 83 465 872 377 275 1 100 89 2,205 2,021 84 100

2,561 2,561 0 1,413 1,393 20 1,637 489 346 235 1 110 1,290 1,760 1,629 21 110

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

242 144 73 6 18 116

912 345 379 122 67 23

826 302 446 -16 94 21

716 -116 712 6 114 22

212 -324 179 4 353 26

2,186 1,168 773 8 237 27

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

216 17 8

574 215 124

457 224 145

329 263 124

-465 275 401

1,301 235 649

11,915 6,255 79 7,083 1,669 -574

13,884 7,719 109 8,633 2,413 -721

17,872 9,804 115 11,343 3,450 -1,278

21,559 12,267 325 14,288 3,594 -1,725

84.3 44.3 16.6 4.7 2.5 31.7 2.8 29.5 2.0 8.6

79.7 44.3 16.8 4.6 2.6 39.2 3.4 34.5 1.7 7.2

76.1 41.7 22.5 3.8 2.1 46.3 3.6 43.9 1.4 6.4

77.2 43.9 14.3 2.8 1.6 37.9 3.0 39.7 0.9 4.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

7,491 3,243 1 3,966 829 -614

11,188 5,297 50 6,212 1,363 -675

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

23.7 10.3 1.3 1.0 0.4 107.7 2.5 6.4 14.3 21.1

240

88.8 42.1 20.9 5.3 2.5 29.0 2.6 23.7 2.4 9.0

LITHUANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

459 430 317 163 0 154 110 113 0 0 29 0 29

3,399 2,188 651 425 0 227 113 1,537 1,130 186 1,211 37 1,174

3,564 2,363 660 453 4 207 104 1,703 1,258 255 1,201 37 1,164

3,905 2,478 679 440 7 239 99 1,799 1,258 378 1,427 39 1,387

4,135 2,113 771 476 11 295 94 1,342 714 500 2,022 0 2,022

5,683 2,507 672 408 11 264 70 1,835 1,532 200 3,176 0 3,176

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

62 0 424 34

253 0 2,111 1,288

273 0 2,295 1,269

280 0 2,423 1,481

280 0 2,069 2,065

197 0 2,474 3,209

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

157 157 92 38 0 54 25 64 0 0 0 0 0

1,143 457 124 117 0 7 2 333 300 31 686 37 649

1,011 399 68 67 4 1 1 331 179 151 612 0 612

786 228 111 34 3 77 0 117 0 117 558 0 558

1,422 200 121 44 2 77 0 79 0 79 1,223 0 1,223

2,561 825 57 51 0 6 0 768 746 22 1,736 0 1,736

.. ..

.. ..

12 0

66 0

40 0

16 0

16 0

22 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

12 12 3 0 0 3 0 9 0 0 0 0 0

799 310 81 62 0 19 7 229 25 146 489 0 489

709 178 59 26 0 33 7 120 0 78 531 0 531

902 402 136 84 0 52 7 266 200 36 500 0 500

1,746 862 78 51 0 27 7 784 718 30 884 45 839

1,393 589 184 146 0 38 24 405 50 330 805 0 805

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

9 0

13 0

26 0

36 0

115 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

17 17 13 9 0 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0

215 136 35 26 0 9 4 100 63 20 80 0 80

224 149 29 22 0 6 3 121 85 22 75 3 72

263 171 35 24 0 11 4 136 100 23 92 3 89

275 171 32 21 0 11 4 139 99 30 104 3 101

235 151 31 22 0 9 4 120 73 36 84 0 84

.. ..

.. ..

4 0

15 0

15 0

14 0

13 0

14 0

241

LITHUANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 9.8 0.0 3.2 34.4

.. 2.9 0.1 0.0 33.4

59.1 1.9 0.0 0.0 28.7

69.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 19.7

63.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 26.2

73.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 22.4

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 267 286 568 .. .. 228 361 712 .. .. 13 -95 -84 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

876 409 296

1,307 465 397

2,019 1,637 91

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

7.3 9.4 2.6 13.8

7.6 6.8 5.5 10.1

6.5 7.7 6.9 17.4

3.0 14.6 3.2 37.3

3.3 5.9 0.4 16.8

4.5 8.9 1.0 19.5

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

6.3 14.6 4.4 22.5

7.1 13.0 7.8 16.9

5.0 17.5 5.4 30.9

3.0 14.6 3.2 37.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.8 10.0 1.0 23.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.3 5.9 0.4 16.8

4.5 8.9 1.0 19.5

.. .. 8.1 7.8 6.6 .. .. 5.2 5.0 7.0 .. .. 1.2 4.8 7.0 .. .. 6.9 8.0 16.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,642 302

758 215

614 172

665 139

316 100

228 84

268 70

161 59

179 32

94 20

46 17

47 15

43 14

35 12

110 10

33 7

126 17

60 5

9 3

8 2

6 2

4 2

5 2

5 2

53 15

35 15

37 14

39 13

38 12

31 10

105 8

29 6

1,463 270

664 195

568 156

618 124

272 86

193 72

159 61

128 51

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data have been revised starting from 1996 based on government statistics.

242

MACEDONIA, FYR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,277 1,078 788 289 57 143 143 26 117

1,455 1,319 1,192 127 81 55 4 2 2

1,463 1,319 1,145 174 71 73 10 7 3

1,663 1,517 1,265 252 67 78 15 10 5

1,865 1,747 1,438 309 68 51 9 1 7

2,044 1,901 1,537 364 63 81 9 1 8

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

216 24 191

19 0 19

28 4 24

27 12 15

35 8 26

43 9 35

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

112 75 38 20 19 1 74 -18 11 9 2 1 63 32 28 3 1

149 145 4 93 74 19 53 -3 45 37 3 5 8 138 111 22 5

149 149 0 136 128 8 24 11 59 54 2 3 -36 196 183 10 3

247 247 0 186 177 9 62 1 52 49 1 2 10 238 226 10 2

237 220 17 192 170 22 24 -22 52 49 1 2 -28 243 219 22 2

275 263 12 192 172 20 113 30 51 48 1 2 61 244 220 21 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

73 56 0 0 18 16

420 71 175 0 174 31

620 20 442 0 158 59

321 70 78 0 173 70

284 50 96 1 137 101

405 91 157 15 141 105

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

64 9 0

376 37 7

553 54 13

248 49 24

201 49 34

290 48 66

3,541 1,760 81 2,366 460 -72

3,396 1,521 73 2,039 799 -244

3,762 1,509 106 2,273 790 -358

4,634 1,896 174 2,640 935 -149

5,316 2,326 213 3,371 991 -415

82.7 41.1 7.9 2.6 1.3 31.6 2.3 3.8 23.3 38.6

96.2 43.1 12.9 3.9 1.8 54.6 4.7 5.0 22.9 37.9

110.2 44.2 15.8 3.4 1.4 47.5 4.2 4.7 24.8 39.6

98.4 40.3 12.8 2.7 1.1 50.1 4.2 2.7 27.0 42.8

87.9 38.5 10.5 2.2 1.0 48.5 3.5 4.0 27.5 45.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

4,410 .. 0 .. 275 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. 29.0 .. .. 0.3 21.5 .. 11.2 8.2 22.6

243

MACEDONIA, FYR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,078 788 605 288 84 317 21 184 0 103 289 0 289

1,319 1,192 908 562 297 346 42 284 0 274 127 0 127

1,319 1,145 863 554 307 308 29 283 0 273 174 0 174

1,517 1,265 982 658 378 324 34 282 0 275 252 0 252

1,747 1,438 1,151 798 461 354 43 287 0 279 309 0 309

1,901 1,537 1,266 927 507 339 55 271 0 264 364 0 364

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

97 84 785 293

116 249 1,187 132

117 254 1,142 177

138 293 1,261 256

175 356 1,435 312

218 387 1,534 366

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

75 75 74 74 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

145 91 90 79 44 11 7 1 0 0 54 0 54

149 63 63 53 16 10 3 0 0 0 86 0 86

247 140 138 76 38 62 3 3 0 3 107 0 107

220 146 131 87 47 43 6 15 0 15 74 0 74

263 144 129 107 21 22 12 15 0 15 119 0 119

.. ..

.. ..

20 42

13 38

8 15

15 18

26 33

43 14

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

19 19 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

74 25 23 20 0 3 0 2 0 2 49 0 49

128 92 90 49 4 41 15 2 0 1 37 0 37

177 106 103 38 0 65 2 3 0 1 71 0 71

170 89 75 28 0 46 3 14 0 13 81 0 81

172 82 65 29 1 35 3 17 0 16 90 0 90

.. ..

.. ..

19 0

3 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

11 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

37 30 20 19 4 1 0 10 0 10 7 0 7

54 48 37 21 4 16 1 11 0 10 7 0 7

49 42 31 19 4 12 1 11 0 11 7 0 7

49 41 34 19 5 15 1 6 0 6 8 0 8

48 37 30 19 5 11 1 7 0 6 11 0 11

.. ..

.. ..

8 0

7 2

8 2

7 2

7 2

6 3

244

MACEDONIA, FYR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 6.5 1.1 0.9 49.7

.. 0.4 0.2 2.5 72.7

20.3 0.3 0.2 2.5 74.3

26.0 0.3 0.1 2.2 69.0

31.1 0.1 0.1 0.9 65.5

33.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 63.3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0

8 24 -26

199 62 72

203 24 98

179 113 53

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 256 44 .. 0 0 .. 242 29 .. 235 28 .. 7 1 .. 14 15 .. 13 14 .. 1 1 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 174 38 .. .. 74 53 .. .. -41 -36 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.7 23.2 6.8 46.8

5.5 17.8 5.8 30.4

2.1 24.0 10.2 61.6

3.5 18.5 7.2 44.3

2.3 18.6 5.5 48.0

2.2 20.4 6.0 51.5

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

3.8 23.0 6.7 46.2

5.5 17.9 5.9 30.7

2.0 24.4 10.4 62.6

3.4 18.5 7.2 44.6

2.1 20.7 6.3 53.3

2.2 20.4 6.0 51.5

.. .. 2.3 9.2 5.8 6.7 .. .. 29.7 3.4 2.1 15.3 .. .. 10.9 0.5 0.2 4.8 .. .. 64.1 1.0 4.7 18.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

3.7 4.8 0.0 12.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

177 62

167 59

180 50

174 43

194 36

170 28

138 21

124 17

91 39

85 36

86 33

97 30

109 26

114 21

85 17

76 15

53 15

43 13

43 11

43 9

43 6

46 4

19 2

7 2

38 24

42 23

43 22

54 21

66 19

69 17

67 15

69 13

86 24

82 23

94 17

77 14

84 10

56 7

53 4

49 2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Other: The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia became a member of the World Bank in 1993. Debt outstanding as of end-1993 reflect only loans used directly by Macedonian beneficiaries. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

245

MADAGASCAR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,520 2,217 2,217 0 184 119 33 27 6

3,689 3,320 3,320 0 144 225 126 116 10

4,302 3,687 3,687 0 73 542 486 468 18

4,691 4,286 4,286 0 104 301 203 190 14

4,153 3,787 3,787 0 127 239 146 133 13

4,511 4,130 4,130 0 150 231 142 129 13

4,952 4,616 4,616 0 172 164 143 130 13

3,462 3,232 3,232 0 226 4 2 2 0

55 33 22

266 245 20

1,194 1,141 53

665 635 30

618 585 33

597 560 36

605 568 37

26 26 0

222 193 29 91 55 36 134 3 59 39 12 7 75 150 94 49 7

231 213 17 121 69 51 194 83 102 85 10 7 91 223 155 61 7

90 90 0 38 24 15 59 7 20 16 0 3 39 58 40 15 3

200 150 50 79 74 5 45 -76 38 28 0 9 7 117 102 5 9

169 140 29 33 32 1 132 -4 32 28 1 4 100 65 60 1 4

201 186 15 30 28 2 167 -4 33 29 1 4 133 63 58 2 4

232 216 16 37 33 4 125 -69 32 30 1 1 93 69 64 4 1

525 473 52 50 44 6 457 -18 31 29 1 0 426 81 73 7 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

178 138 0 0 40 40

514 144 22 0 348 84

241 66 10 0 164 124

274 76 83 0 115 86

341 108 93 0 140 81

286 158 8 0 120 88

485 182 13 0 290 99

1,334 429 45 0 859 98

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

137 39 2

428 85 1

221 16 3

241 28 4

275 28 38

220 29 37

423 30 32

1,269 29 0

3,807 1,210 11 1,584 285 -260

4,470 1,303 11 1,572 398 -140

4,328 736 17 1,101 363 -270

5,394 1,150 16 1,749 414 -309

4,292 .. 16 .. 504 ..

387.6 123.2 9.6 3.1 1.0 6.1 2.2 6.4 61.1 39.0

318.8 92.9 5.0 2.5 0.7 9.6 3.0 5.8 67.2 44.6

613.1 104.2 8.6 4.5 0.8 8.1 4.0 5.1 69.0 47.2

430.5 91.8 6.0 2.8 0.6 8.4 2.8 3.3 72.0 50.4

.. 80.7 .. .. 0.7 14.5 .. 0.1 88.5 81.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,746 359 5 636 48 -184

2,958 490 8 985 92 -265

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

702.2 91.8 41.7 16.4 2.1 1.9 0.9 4.7 32.7 18.7

753.0 124.7 45.5 20.8 3.5 2.5 1.1 6.1 46.3 33.4

3,002 765 14 1,161 109 -276

4. DEBT INDICATORS 562.2 143.3 7.6 2.6 0.7 2.5 1.1 12.6 51.7 39.3

246

MADAGASCAR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,217 2,217 1,850 470 418 1,380 407 367 0 163 0 0 0

3,320 3,320 3,180 1,231 1,075 1,949 633 140 0 38 0 0 0

3,687 3,687 3,603 1,690 1,536 1,913 687 84 0 28 0 0 0

4,286 4,286 4,247 1,828 1,765 2,419 1,100 39 0 23 0 0 0

3,787 3,787 3,750 1,851 1,793 1,899 999 37 0 21 0 0 0

4,130 4,130 4,093 2,129 2,068 1,964 1,046 37 0 21 0 0 0

4,616 4,616 4,578 2,496 2,429 2,083 1,138 37 0 21 0 0 0

3,232 3,232 3,226 2,836 2,774 390 292 6 0 5 0 0 0

28 316 2,178 39

26 770 3,244 76

12 1,110 3,555 133

0 1,378 4,164 122

0 1,409 3,685 101

0 1,652 4,022 108

0 1,975 4,499 117

0 2,269 3,178 54

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

193 193 180 76 69 103 44 13 0 1 0 0 0

213 213 212 136 120 77 77 1 0 0 0 0 0

90 90 89 78 78 11 10 1 0 0 0 0 0

150 150 150 143 134 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

140 140 140 138 131 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

186 186 186 185 181 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

216 216 216 215 212 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

473 473 472 308 292 165 164 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 58

0 64

0 76

0 94

0 97

0 163

0 195

0 227

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

55 55 46 5 3 42 2 8 0 2 0 0 0

69 69 53 19 9 34 9 16 0 11 0 0 0

24 24 19 18 9 1 1 5 0 1 0 0 0

74 74 73 37 25 36 34 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 32 30 20 15 10 9 2 0 2 0 0 0

28 28 28 17 12 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

33 33 33 21 15 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0

44 44 41 27 20 14 1 2 0 2 0 0 0

1 1

3 3

4 7

0 17

0 10

0 6

0 9

0 10

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

39 39 36 5 3 30 2 4 0 2 0 0 0

85 85 72 18 7 54 11 13 0 10 0 0 0

16 16 15 12 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 28 17 14 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 27 13 11 14 3 1 0 1 0 0 0

29 29 29 16 14 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 16 15 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

29 29 29 22 21 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

2 2

2 5

1 8

0 10

0 9

0 10

0 12

0 16

247

MADAGASCAR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 6.1 0.1 1.4 49.1

.. 6.9 0.1 1.4 42.5

.. 7.7 0.1 1.3 45.0

.. 7.4 0.1 0.9 56.8

14.3 6.9 0.1 0.9 56.7

14.9 6.8 0.1 0.9 58.1

15.4 6.6 0.1 0.9 58.9

2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.4

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

128 88 0 0 36 0 0 0 0 0 88 65 0 0 12 38 49 0 0 12 50 16 0 0 0 36 16 0 0 24 23 14 0 0 24 12 2 0 0 0 5 185 0 0 82 0 0 0 0 69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 381 271 226 -53 -538 134 194 59 45 132 155 181 -45 -161 -149 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

20 0 9 9 0 11 11 0 80 38 0 0

15 0 6 6 0 11 11 0 51 35 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,385 59 0 0

358 167 244

441 125 322

-1,489 457 146

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.6 31.8 7.4 50.8

1.1 36.2 9.7 74.9

1.0 36.8 9.6 75.3

0.8 40.1 10.2 80.6

0.8 40.4 10.9 81.0

0.8 40.6 10.2 80.7

0.8 41.3 10.4 81.1

0.7 41.4 9.8 78.8

3.5 32.7 7.5 51.8

1.1 36.4 9.7 75.2

1.0 36.8 9.6 75.3

0.8 40.1 10.2 80.6

0.8 40.4 10.9 81.0

0.8 40.6 10.2 80.7

0.8 41.3 10.4 81.1

0.7 42.1 10.0 80.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.2 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.1 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

76 37

90 38

118 37

125 36

131 34

134 32

142 26

120 24

75 37

86 38

117 37

124 36

130 34

133 32

142 26

120 24

20 13

27 13

52 12

52 11

53 10

53 8

53 2

27 1

55 24

59 24

65 25

72 25

78 24

81 24

90 23

93 23

1 0

4 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Madagascar resumed providing the data after several years of not reporting to DRS, and all the long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt data prior to 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS debt data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club and commercial bank debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

248

MALAWI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,021 795 795 0 145 81 1 1 0

1,558 1,385 1,382 2 115 58 6 4 2

2,239 2,079 2,079 0 116 44 1 1 1

2,705 2,545 2,545 0 83 78 37 34 2

2,585 2,469 2,469 0 73 43 22 21 1

2,887 2,671 2,671 0 95 122 30 29 1

3,099 2,935 2,935 0 102 62 36 35 1

3,418 3,297 3,297 0 92 28 28 28 0

1 1 0

19 12 7

7 3 4

72 60 12

31 26 5

37 32 5

41 36 5

2 2 0

92 69 23 65 46 19 65 38 45 30 10 5 20 110 76 29 5

161 136 25 86 67 19 88 13 47 36 6 4 41 133 103 25 4

227 215 12 75 65 10 183 32 43 39 1 3 141 118 104 11 3

127 119 8 42 33 9 83 -2 21 18 0 3 62 63 51 9 3

118 118 0 30 26 4 67 -21 15 14 0 1 51 46 40 4 1

95 73 22 19 12 7 148 72 17 16 0 1 130 37 28 8 1

88 79 9 23 16 8 -2 -66 19 17 1 1 -20 42 33 8 1

86 86 0 35 25 9 25 -26 25 23 1 0 0 60 49 10 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

61 23 1 0 38 35

297 69 0 1 227 110

418 150 6 0 262 87

339 86 26 0 228 111

322 91 19 0 212 85

275 61 6 0 208 104

396 63 10 0 323 125

425 60 16 0 348 112

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

18 30 13

255 36 5

371 39 9

306 18 15

294 14 14

237 16 23

364 17 0

385 23 0

1,707 471 1 680 250 -73

1,683 484 1 686 210 -60

1,890 479 1 840 170 -201

1,723 462 1 685 132 -203

1,835 .. 1 .. 139 ..

573.9 158.5 13.3 4.5 1.2 9.3 4.4 2.9 90.2 75.6

533.5 153.5 9.4 3.2 0.9 8.1 3.7 1.7 92.6 79.6

603.1 152.8 7.6 3.6 0.9 5.9 2.4 4.2 89.7 78.2

670.3 179.9 9.0 4.0 1.1 4.3 2.3 2.0 91.6 81.4

.. 186.3 .. .. 1.3 4.1 .. 0.8 92.7 80.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,078 276 0 439 49 -126

1,837 452 0 638 142 -86

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

369.7 94.6 39.8 16.3 4.2 4.8 1.3 7.9 47.9 49.5

344.4 84.8 29.3 10.3 2.5 9.1 2.7 3.7 67.5 69.8

1,350 474 1 708 115 -78

4. DEBT INDICATORS 472.5 165.8 24.9 9.0 3.2 5.1 1.9 1.9 84.6 76.3

249

MALAWI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

795 795 699 505 380 194 108 96 0 72 0 0 0

1,385 1,382 1,305 1,088 902 217 149 78 0 35 2 0 2

2,079 2,079 2,051 1,708 1,573 343 321 28 0 0 0 0 0

2,545 2,545 2,527 2,044 1,974 482 467 18 0 0 0 0 0

2,469 2,469 2,460 2,058 1,999 401 394 10 0 0 0 0 0

2,671 2,671 2,661 2,259 2,195 402 395 10 0 0 0 0 0

2,935 2,935 2,924 2,521 2,443 403 397 11 0 0 0 0 0

3,297 3,297 3,289 2,741 2,639 548 530 8 0 6 0 0 0

69 322 787 8

91 764 1,372 13

55 1,251 2,076 3

9 1,592 2,542 3

4 1,624 2,466 3

2 1,770 2,668 3

1 1,958 2,932 3

0 2,075 3,295 2

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

69 69 63 49 39 14 4 6 0 0 0 0 0

136 136 128 118 109 10 10 7 0 0 0 0 0

215 215 215 97 93 118 118 0 0 0 0 0 0

119 119 119 119 116 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

118 118 118 118 118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

73 73 73 73 73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 79 79 79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

86 86 86 86 86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 33

2 99

0 73

0 97

0 108

0 51

0 56

0 62

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

46 46 11 5 1 6 2 35 0 30 0 0 0

67 65 61 20 3 41 4 4 0 0 1 0 1

65 65 43 28 9 14 7 23 0 10 0 0 0

33 33 33 30 19 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 26 26 16 10 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 8 6 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 12 10 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 23 18 15 5 5 2 0 2 0 0 0

1 1

8 3

12 7

8 16

4 9

2 5

2 9

0 11

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

30 30 19 11 3 8 2 11 0 10 0 0 0

36 36 30 19 6 12 3 6 0 3 0 0 0

39 39 35 25 12 10 7 4 0 1 0 0 0

18 18 18 17 15 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 14 12 11 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 14 13 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 17 17 15 14 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

23 23 23 20 18 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0

5 3

8 5

7 9

1 12

0 10

0 10

0 11

0 14

250

MALAWI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 4.5 21.8 0.0 40.0

.. 9.3 16.7 0.1 46.9

.. 12.3 9.0 0.1 53.6

.. 8.4 6.2 0.1 65.9

1.9 5.9 5.8 0.1 69.4

2.0 5.4 5.5 0.1 69.5

1.9 4.9 5.1 0.1 69.4

3.5 7.0 4.9 0.0 65.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

2 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 51 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 141 148 218 -37 -121 65 88 183 83 67 39 22 -91 -111 -96 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 39 7 0 0

2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 42 7 0 0

3 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 48 8 0 0

303 148 139

212 -2 167

319 25 78

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.9 44.4 9.3 70.6

1.3 38.9 9.2 74.8

1.0 38.6 9.6 78.2

0.8 44.7 10.1 81.8

0.8 41.2 11.7 81.6

0.8 45.1 9.9 80.7

0.8 41.3 10.3 81.0

1.0 37.6 8.5 75.2

1.6 45.5 9.6 73.2

1.1 39.5 9.4 76.2

1.0 38.6 9.6 78.2

0.8 44.7 10.1 81.8

0.8 41.2 11.7 81.6

0.8 45.1 9.9 80.7

0.8 41.3 10.3 81.0

1.0 37.6 8.5 75.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.0 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

123 38

127 36

130 33

108 31

115 30

116 28

119 27

120 26

120 37

125 35

129 33

107 31

115 30

116 28

119 27

120 26

60 14

60 12

60 10

35 9

34 8

31 7

30 6

29 6

59 24

65 23

69 23

72 23

81 22

85 22

89 21

90 20

3 0

2 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004.

251

MALAYSIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

20,269 17,466 14,506 2,960 118 2,685 0 0 0

15,328 13,422 11,592 1,830 0 1,906 0 0 0

34,343 27,069 16,023 11,046 0 7,274 0 0 0

41,874 37,300 19,234 18,067 0 4,573 0 0 0

45,089 38,337 24,156 14,181 0 6,752 0 0 0

48,272 39,903 26,415 13,488 0 8,369 0 0 0

48,534 39,909 25,376 14,532 0 8,625 0 0 0

52,145 40,713 25,560 15,153 0 11,432 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

3,791 3,791 0 3,793 3,635 158 152 154 1,606 1,437 16 152 -1,454 5,399 5,072 174 152

1,683 1,683 0 3,167 3,167 0 -1,851 -367 1,166 997 0 169 -3,017 4,333 4,164 0 169

8,503 8,503 0 4,450 4,450 0 5,138 1,085 1,591 1,150 0 441 3,547 6,041 5,600 0 441

5,921 5,921 0 4,146 4,146 0 337 -1,439 2,299 2,033 0 266 -1,962 6,445 6,179 0 266

7,129 7,129 0 4,091 4,091 0 5,217 2,178 2,140 1,946 0 195 3,076 6,231 6,036 0 195

7,793 7,793 0 5,973 5,973 0 3,437 1,617 1,965 1,731 0 235 1,472 7,938 7,704 0 235

5,627 5,627 0 7,408 7,408 0 -1,525 256 2,183 1,908 0 275 -3,708 9,591 9,316 0 275

7,815 7,815 0 7,099 7,099 0 3,523 2,807 2,088 1,782 0 306 1,435 9,187 8,881 0 306

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

859 156 695 0 9 94

890 -1,484 2,332 0 42 125

8,242 4,053 4,178 0 11 121

5,572 1,775 3,788 0 9 82

3,600 3,038 554 0 8 68

4,979 1,820 3,203 -55 12 67

2,046 -1,781 2,473 1,340 14 62

9,754 716 4,624 4,400 14 65

-1,776 1,437 1,199

-2,033 997 1,926

2,948 1,150 4,144

-3,633 2,033 7,173

-4,279 1,946 5,933

-2,872 1,731 6,121

-6,597 1,908 6,735

1,482 1,782 0

81,258 104,282 792 94,844 30,798 7,287

88,671 110,400 959 100,430 34,623 7,190

98,021 122,025 987 106,197 45,003 13,381

111,858 .. 987 .. 66,897 ..

43.2 55.5 6.0 2.1 2.6 68.3 3.9 15.0 7.0 2.7

43.7 54.4 7.2 1.8 2.2 71.7 4.1 17.3 6.7 2.5

39.8 49.5 7.9 1.8 2.2 92.7 5.1 17.8 7.3 2.4

.. 46.6 .. .. 1.9 128.3 .. 21.9 8.4 2.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

29,535 17,776 39 18,383 5,677 -600

42,152 34,514 325 35,486 10,659 -870

114.0 68.6 30.4 9.0 5.4 28.0 3.7 13.2 5.7 5.9

44.4 36.4 12.6 3.4 2.8 69.5 3.6 12.4 14.6 11.8

84,689 85,992 716 93,618 24,699 -8,644

82,712 114,356 981 103,944 29,844 8,488

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

39.9 40.6 7.0 1.9 1.9 71.9 3.2 21.2 10.6 4.8

252

36.6 50.6 5.6 2.0 2.8 71.3 3.4 10.9 7.0 3.1

MALAYSIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

17,466 14,506 3,185 1,195 9 1,990 1,155 11,322 4,731 4,592 2,960 0 2,960

13,422 11,592 4,191 1,812 9 2,378 2,225 7,401 4,090 2,285 1,830 0 1,830

27,069 16,023 5,489 1,644 1 3,845 3,651 10,533 6,062 4,171 11,046 1,765 9,281

37,300 19,234 4,950 1,314 0 3,637 2,939 14,284 9,945 2,292 18,067 3,402 14,665

38,337 24,156 5,877 1,236 16 4,641 3,159 18,279 10,804 5,573 14,181 3,825 10,356

39,903 26,415 5,821 1,184 39 4,637 3,194 20,594 13,464 4,752 13,488 3,260 10,229

39,909 25,376 6,170 1,158 59 5,011 3,462 19,207 13,698 3,402 14,532 4,157 10,375

40,713 25,560 6,966 1,081 90 5,884 4,280 18,594 13,754 3,106 15,153 6,271 8,882

776 0 14,491 2,976

1,102 0 11,592 1,830

1,059 0 16,023 11,046

812 0 19,135 18,166

788 0 24,010 14,327

719 0 26,283 13,620

708 0 25,253 14,656

639 0 25,464 15,249

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,791 3,143 251 107 0 144 119 2,892 2,310 143 648 0 648

1,683 798 737 273 2 464 460 61 0 57 885 0 885

8,503 4,150 837 135 0 702 604 3,313 2,100 1,205 4,353 480 3,873

5,921 3,460 1,446 61 0 1,385 1,141 2,015 1,061 672 2,461 361 2,100

7,129 5,539 2,920 90 19 2,830 2,084 2,619 1,700 820 1,590 550 1,040

7,793 6,293 1,234 90 27 1,144 435 5,059 3,838 597 1,500 0 1,500

5,627 2,294 857 113 24 744 248 1,436 0 1,436 3,334 906 2,427

7,815 3,946 1,510 71 53 1,438 1,083 2,436 915 1,522 3,868 3,218 650

76 0

205 0

88 0

15 0

60 0

56 0

87 0

17 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,635 3,079 186 90 0 96 41 2,893 57 2,590 556 0 556

3,167 2,697 365 216 2 149 123 2,332 1,239 664 470 0 470

4,450 1,701 455 261 2 195 188 1,245 140 420 2,749 0 2,749

4,146 2,017 840 139 0 701 666 1,176 200 864 2,129 745 1,384

4,091 2,460 832 123 3 710 679 1,628 676 840 1,631 110 1,521

5,973 4,297 1,416 171 5 1,246 403 2,881 1,327 1,311 1,676 549 1,127

7,408 4,382 933 163 4 770 239 3,449 0 3,061 3,026 65 2,961

7,099 3,986 818 135 4 683 344 3,168 960 1,811 3,113 1,110 2,003

72 0

164 0

194 0

100 0

83 0

126 0

98 0

87 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,437 1,219 173 90 0 84 37 1,046 325 591 218 0 218

997 956 232 145 1 87 75 724 414 199 41 0 41

1,150 805 284 128 0 155 146 522 251 190 345 28 318

2,033 1,171 259 98 0 160 94 912 611 189 862 159 703

1,946 1,278 267 88 0 179 102 1,011 664 235 668 158 510

1,731 1,189 266 80 0 186 119 923 669 165 542 152 390

1,908 1,397 223 65 0 158 112 1,174 892 195 510 190 320

1,782 1,298 236 54 0 182 136 1,062 802 184 484 187 297

56 0

86 0

83 0

66 0

59 0

54 0

47 0

39 0

253

MALAYSIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 25.5 1.8 1.9 50.4

.. 36.5 1.6 3.6 31.8

.. 34.6 1.0 3.1 48.5

.. 27.6 0.7 0.0 62.8

0.8 22.3 0.5 0.0 70.9

4.3 20.6 0.5 0.0 70.5

4.0 23.6 0.6 0.0 68.5

4.2 22.8 0.6 0.0 70.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 1,536 -949 4,007 -30 3,215 152 -1,851 5,138 337 5,217 1,135 926 -104 -689 -734 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3,183 3,437 623

262 -1,525 923

3,612 3,523 272

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.7 21.4 18.3 9.2

4.8 20.9 6.0 37.3

5.8 18.3 12.5 27.6

5.7 13.2 3.9 22.7

4.0 13.6 5.8 33.4

4.9 11.7 7.9 25.5

1.5 6.7 0.7 23.6

3.0 8.3 3.2 26.3

8.4 19.1 5.7 9.9

4.0 22.9 6.7 44.2

3.4 24.4 6.3 48.1

3.1 24.1 3.5 45.2

3.7 14.9 3.3 31.7

3.7 16.9 4.9 37.5

3.0 15.6 2.1 37.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.8 8.9 6.3 7.0 4.5 5.2 21.9 11.4 16.9 7.6 11.6 10.2 21.3 2.6 14.0 4.0 9.7 8.7 9.0 4.3 22.7 11.4 35.9 22.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

1.4 6.1 0.6 22.6

3.0 8.3 3.2 26.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

5,374 1,891

4,688 1,665

5,837 1,431

3,461 1,239

7,283 1,010

2,214 760

1,568 688

1,015 597

838 255

878 240

959 214

938 185

911 155

587 124

508 107

492 91

675 203

719 196

809 177

802 156

778 131

486 106

420 93

420 80

164 52

159 44

149 37

137 30

133 23

101 18

88 14

72 11

4,535 1,636

3,810 1,425

4,878 1,217

2,522 1,054

6,373 855

1,627 636

1,060 582

523 506

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt, private nonguaranteed debt and short-term debt for 2004 are based on information provided by the authorities and World Bank staff estimates. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

254

MALDIVES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

83.1 49.1 49.1 0.0 0.0 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

78.0 64.0 64.0 0.0 0.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

154.9 151.9 151.9 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

206.0 184.7 184.7 0.0 0.0 21.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

234.9 180.7 180.7 0.0 0.0 54.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

271.7 223.0 223.0 0.0 0.0 48.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

281.0 255.1 255.1 0.0 0.0 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

344.8 304.4 304.4 0.0 0.0 40.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

4.5 4.5 0.0 6.6 6.6 0.0 -1.1 1.0 3.6 1.9 0.0 1.8 -4.7 10.3 8.5 0.0 1.8

13.0 13.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 8.6 1.6 2.8 1.3 0.0 1.5 5.8 8.8 7.3 0.0 1.5

34.7 34.7 0.0 7.1 7.1 0.0 29.6 2.0 3.7 3.6 0.0 0.2 25.8 10.8 10.7 0.0 0.2

13.6 13.6 0.0 13.9 13.9 0.0 -3.8 -3.5 5.9 4.7 0.0 1.2 -9.7 19.8 18.7 0.0 1.2

20.1 20.1 0.0 15.8 15.8 0.0 37.2 32.9 6.0 4.6 0.0 1.4 31.3 21.7 20.4 0.0 1.4

42.6 42.6 0.0 16.6 16.6 0.0 20.4 -5.6 5.7 4.4 0.0 1.3 14.7 22.2 20.9 0.0 1.3

36.6 36.6 0.0 16.0 16.0 0.0 -2.2 -22.8 5.2 4.6 0.0 0.7 -7.4 21.2 20.6 0.0 0.7

51.3 51.3 0.0 23.8 23.8 0.0 41.6 14.1 8.5 7.6 0.0 0.9 33.1 32.3 31.4 0.0 0.9

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

2.1 -2.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.9

24.3 7.0 6.0 0.0 11.3 5.8

58.3 27.6 7.0 0.0 23.7 10.1

22.7 -0.4 13.0 0.0 10.0 7.6

31.0 4.3 12.0 0.0 14.6 5.4

48.1 26.0 12.0 0.0 10.1 6.5

40.0 20.6 14.0 0.0 5.4 6.8

50.7 27.5 14.7 0.0 8.2 6.4

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-5.1 1.9 5.4

9.1 1.3 13.9

34.9 3.6 19.9

-16.5 4.7 34.4

-13.3 4.6 39.7

8.4 4.4 35.3

-3.6 4.6 39.0

-1.2 7.6 44.3

594.3 467.5 2.0 492.0 123.3 -51.5

586.5 472.5 2.0 501.5 93.6 -58.7

604.2 500.8 2.0 496.9 133.8 -35.7

655.4 590.3 2.0 579.9 160.3 -31.8

719.2 696.5 2.9 776.2 204.4 -133.9

44.1 34.7 4.2 1.3 1.0 59.9 3.0 10.4 69.1 58.5

49.7 40.1 4.6 1.3 1.0 39.8 2.2 23.1 59.5 51.0

54.2 45.0 4.4 1.1 0.9 49.2 3.2 17.9 60.5 52.9

47.6 42.9 3.6 0.9 0.8 57.0 3.3 9.2 64.1 56.4

49.5 47.9 4.6 1.2 1.2 59.3 3.2 11.7 60.6 53.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

114.1 91.4 1.0 98.5 4.7 -5.5

193.8 183.8 2.0 177.7 24.5 9.9

90.9 72.8 11.2 4.0 3.2 5.6 0.6 40.9 45.7 17.3

42.4 40.2 4.8 1.5 1.4 31.4 1.7 18.0 71.0 41.7

379.0 322.4 2.0 337.0 48.5 -18.2

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

48.0 40.9 3.4 1.2 1.0 31.3 1.7 1.9 81.6 58.8

255

MALDIVES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

49.1 49.1 42.1 14.4 10.2 27.8 27.8 6.9 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

64.0 64.0 60.2 32.5 32.5 27.6 22.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

151.9 151.9 142.6 91.1 91.1 51.5 35.3 9.4 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

184.7 184.7 154.8 120.5 115.4 34.3 26.9 29.9 0.0 23.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

180.7 180.7 151.0 119.8 114.9 31.2 24.8 29.7 0.0 24.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

223.0 223.0 175.1 143.8 138.5 31.3 26.0 47.9 0.0 43.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

255.1 255.1 191.0 158.5 152.6 32.5 27.6 64.1 0.0 61.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

304.4 304.4 218.2 184.6 178.4 33.7 30.6 86.2 0.0 84.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 3.8 49.1 0.0

0.0 10.0 64.0 0.0

0.0 36.1 151.9 0.0

0.0 46.4 183.4 1.2

0.0 44.4 178.2 2.5

0.0 50.3 221.3 1.7

0.0 57.6 254.3 0.8

0.0 65.6 293.4 11.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4.5 4.5 4.5 1.4 1.4 3.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.0 13.0 9.6 3.6 3.6 5.9 1.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

34.7 34.7 30.9 18.7 18.7 12.2 12.2 3.8 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.6 13.6 6.3 6.1 5.4 0.2 0.2 7.3 0.0 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.1 20.1 10.2 9.6 9.6 0.7 0.7 9.9 0.0 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

42.6 42.6 18.5 15.0 14.9 3.5 3.5 24.1 0.0 24.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

36.6 36.6 16.5 12.8 12.8 3.8 3.8 20.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

51.3 51.3 16.7 10.9 10.9 5.9 5.9 34.6 0.0 34.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.7

0.0 1.2

0.0 3.9

0.0 3.3

0.0 0.1

0.0 3.2

0.0 3.2

0.0 6.1

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6.6 6.6 4.0 1.6 0.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.0 6.0 3.7 1.5 1.5 2.2 1.9 2.3 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 7.1 4.8 1.4 1.4 3.4 2.7 2.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.9 13.9 6.7 2.5 2.5 4.2 3.2 7.3 0.0 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.8 15.8 6.4 2.6 2.6 3.8 2.7 9.4 0.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.6 16.6 7.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 2.9 9.5 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.0 16.0 6.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.5 9.8 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.8 23.8 9.1 4.0 4.0 5.0 3.3 14.7 0.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.6

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.8

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.9 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.6 3.6 2.7 1.0 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.7 4.7 2.6 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.5 2.2 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.6 4.6 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.5 2.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.4 4.4 2.5 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 1.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.6 4.6 2.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.4 2.3 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.6 7.6 2.6 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.5 5.0 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.5

256

MALDIVES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 1.0 0.0 38.2

.. 0.0 0.4 0.0 25.4

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.3

.. 0.0 0.2 0.0 53.3

4.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 53.7

15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.1

15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.5

11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 0.3 11.2 31.3 -12.9 28.9 -1.1 8.6 29.6 -3.8 37.2 0.8 1.2 1.1 -6.5 -5.4 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

36.7 20.4 10.7

9.3 -2.2 8.5

63.8 41.6 21.3

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

6.0 25.3 5.9 34.5

0.8 37.3 9.2 77.2

3.2 31.3 9.1 56.1

3.7 26.6 6.9 47.7

5.1 14.9 3.5 27.3

3.9 14.7 2.9 31.9

6.3 11.0 1.5 15.0

1.0 23.3 -269.8 45.0

2.4 41.3 10.3 65.9

0.8 37.3 9.2 77.2

2.5 34.8 10.1 63.1

2.5 34.7 9.3 63.3

2.7 27.2 9.0 58.1

1.7 30.2 7.8 66.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 32.5 -394.7 61.4

9.9 0.0 7.9 6.6 5.9 4.4 7.3 0.0 6.0 7.4 10.8 11.5 1.0 0.0 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.9 -0.8 0.0 6.3 10.1 17.1 24.8 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

6.3 11.0 1.5 15.0

2.1 3.4 1.4 9.4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

29.5 9.5

26.9 9.6

25.7 9.0

26.0 8.1

26.3 7.0

27.6 6.0

27.4 5.1

26.0 4.1

11.9 3.4

12.2 3.4

9.6 3.4

9.3 3.3

9.8 3.1

11.2 2.9

11.4 2.8

11.4 2.6

5.0 0.8

5.0 0.7

4.7 0.6

3.1 0.5

3.1 0.5

3.2 0.4

3.2 0.4

2.7 0.3

6.9 2.6

7.2 2.7

4.9 2.8

6.2 2.8

6.7 2.6

8.0 2.5

8.2 2.5

8.7 2.3

17.6 6.1

14.7 6.2

16.1 5.6

16.7 4.8

16.5 4.0

16.5 3.1

15.9 2.2

14.6 1.4

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS debt data on international bank lending.

257

MALI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,456 1,289 1,289 0 98 69 8 4 4

2,468 2,337 2,337 0 69 62 9 9 0

2,958 2,739 2,739 0 147 72 28 28 0

2,980 2,671 2,671 0 176 134 42 42 0

2,910 2,642 2,642 0 171 97 57 57 0

2,827 2,518 2,518 0 166 144 7 7 0

3,114 2,910 2,910 0 169 35 6 6 0

3,316 3,132 3,132 0 145 39 6 6 0

91 76 14

63 63 0

342 340 2

541 541 0

540 540 0

108 108 0

115 115 0

135 135 0

120 106 13 30 22 8 91 1 23 13 5 5 68 53 34 14 5

195 167 28 44 25 18 159 8 24 17 4 3 135 68 43 22 3

238 193 45 62 55 7 200 24 25 22 1 2 175 87 77 7 2

109 100 9 66 50 16 -11 -53 27 18 1 9 -38 94 68 17 9

137 114 23 62 47 15 23 -52 19 15 1 3 4 80 62 16 3

152 143 9 58 40 18 191 97 25 21 1 2 166 83 61 19 2

216 198 18 56 38 18 51 -108 20 17 1 2 31 77 56 19 2

168 166 2 75 57 18 97 4 27 25 1 1 70 103 83 19 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

245 85 3 0 157 61

348 142 6 0 201 93

457 138 111 0 208 132

358 50 82 0 226 120

393 67 122 14 191 91

575 104 244 -2 229 123

602 159 132 1 309 128

771 109 180 1 481 122

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

232 13 0

327 17 4

430 22 6

265 18 76

238 15 141

326 21 227

464 17 120

583 25 0

2,392 734 73 1,046 381 -255

2,464 981 88 1,344 349 -310

3,103 1,207 138 1,376 594 -149

4,187 1,312 154 1,652 952 -271

4,644 .. 154 .. 861 ..

406.1 124.6 12.8 3.7 1.1 12.8 4.4 4.5 84.1 50.8

296.8 118.1 8.2 1.9 0.8 12.0 3.1 3.3 85.3 52.3

234.2 91.1 6.8 2.0 0.8 21.0 5.2 5.1 87.9 62.1

237.3 74.4 5.8 1.5 0.5 30.6 6.9 1.1 92.4 66.5

.. 71.4 .. .. 0.6 26.0 .. 1.2 93.4 68.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,288 305 67 611 29 -210

2,405 549 107 889 198 -221

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

477.0 113.1 17.4 7.6 1.8 2.0 0.6 4.7 83.5 27.0

449.3 102.6 12.3 4.4 1.0 8.0 2.7 2.5 91.1 36.3

2,419 650 112 1,040 323 -284

4. DEBT INDICATORS 455.2 122.3 13.4 3.8 1.0 10.9 3.7 2.4 89.9 47.2

258

MALI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,289 1,289 1,245 393 383 852 833 44 0 7 0 0 0

2,337 2,337 2,321 897 875 1,424 1,373 16 0 0 0 0 0

2,739 2,739 2,737 1,397 1,357 1,340 1,303 2 0 2 0 0 0

2,671 2,671 2,671 1,513 1,495 1,158 1,012 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,642 2,642 2,642 1,523 1,507 1,120 974 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,518 2,518 2,518 1,755 1,741 763 744 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,910 2,910 2,910 2,071 2,057 839 820 0 0 0 0 0 0

3,132 3,132 3,131 2,271 2,257 860 840 1 0 1 0 0 0

0 224 1,286 4

0 498 2,331 6

0 863 2,739 0

0 957 2,671 0

0 981 2,642 0

0 1,134 2,518 0

0 1,322 2,910 0

0 1,441 3,132 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

106 106 106 48 46 58 58 0 0 0 0 0 0

167 167 167 115 111 52 52 0 0 0 0 0 0

193 193 193 146 141 47 47 0 0 0 0 0 0

100 100 100 85 85 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0

114 114 114 104 103 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

143 143 143 127 127 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 0

198 198 198 174 173 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

166 166 166 155 153 11 11 1 0 1 0 0 0

0 29

0 43

0 85

0 49

0 70

0 91

0 95

0 76

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

22 22 19 9 8 9 9 3 0 1 0 0 0

25 25 24 14 13 11 10 1 0 0 0 0 0

55 55 55 23 20 32 25 0 0 0 0 0 0

50 50 50 26 23 24 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

47 47 47 23 20 24 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

40 40 40 21 19 18 17 0 0 0 0 0 0

38 38 38 26 23 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

57 57 57 33 31 24 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 6

0 7

0 6

0 3

0 5

0 7

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

13 13 12 6 5 6 5 1 0 1 0 0 0

17 17 17 10 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0

22 22 22 12 11 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 12 12 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 15 11 11 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 21 15 15 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

17 17 17 14 14 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 25 19 19 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 2

0 3

0 6

0 7

0 7

0 7

0 8

0 10

259

MALI (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.3 3.6 2.6 17.0

.. 0.3 2.6 2.3 14.8

.. 2.3 1.8 2.1 22.5

.. 2.9 1.8 1.5 33.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 74 0 0 0 45 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 219 340 264 -216 91 159 200 -11 102 119 -1 -182 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

14.2 2.5 1.7 1.5 35.8

16.8 2.8 2.0 1.9 43.8

16.4 2.6 1.9 1.8 44.2

15.9 2.4 1.9 1.8 45.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 2 1 0

350 206 124 124 0 0 0 0 451 44 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 5 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 2 0 0

-70 23 -74

-83 191 159

287 51 209

202 97 100

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.3 42.1 9.0 74.2

1.0 29.9 8.4 67.6

1.5 30.7 8.8 68.6

0.6 34.9 8.8 76.6

0.9 37.7 10.1 77.6

0.9 39.2 8.5 75.5

1.3 40.3 8.9 73.1

1.1 38.3 9.2 74.5

1.1 43.0 9.1 76.1

1.0 29.9 8.4 67.6

1.5 30.7 8.8 68.6

0.6 34.9 8.8 76.6

0.9 37.7 10.1 77.6

0.9 39.2 8.5 75.5

1.1 42.4 9.4 76.2

1.1 38.3 9.2 74.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 8.7 2.2 26.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

102 31

112 32

119 33

121 32

120 31

125 30

133 28

135 27

102 31

111 32

118 32

120 32

119 31

125 30

132 28

134 27

39 8

42 8

45 8

45 7

41 7

43 6

45 6

44 5

64 24

69 24

73 25

75 25

78 24

81 23

86 22

90 21

0 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

260

MAURITANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,454 1,303 1,303 0 46 105 21 18 3

2,113 1,806 1,806 0 70 238 63 57 7

2,396 2,127 2,127 0 100 169 79 77 3

2,378 2,029 2,029 0 98 251 112 112 0

2,263 1,914 1,914 0 105 244 93 93 0

2,240 1,913 1,913 0 113 214 101 101 0

2,328 2,049 2,049 0 104 174 110 110 0

2,297 2,046 2,046 0 90 160 95 95 0

40 36 3

142 121 21

174 169 5

337 337 0

264 264 0

316 316 0

232 232 0

194 194 0

114 105 10 65 48 17 50 1 37 27 3 7 13 102 76 20 7

148 136 12 98 83 16 102 53 47 35 3 9 55 146 118 19 9

133 111 22 79 70 9 68 14 38 32 0 5 30 117 102 9 5

123 115 8 52 46 6 62 -9 31 20 1 11 31 83 66 7 11

104 81 23 46 40 5 71 12 29 21 1 7 42 74 61 6 7

133 117 16 36 30 6 59 -38 18 14 1 4 41 54 44 6 4

126 124 1 39 31 8 38 -49 16 13 0 2 22 55 44 9 2

108 108 0 36 27 9 74 2 21 18 0 2 53 57 45 10 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

190 56 7 0 127 36

139 54 7 0 78 50

184 42 7 0 135 49

234 69 40 0 125 33

305 41 92 0 172 35

441 87 118 0 237 35

463 94 214 0 155 42

575 81 300 0 194 41

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

143 27 21

103 35 1

147 32 5

214 20 0

284 21 0

428 14 0

449 13 0

557 18 0

1,100 .. 2 .. 283 ..

1,075 .. 2 .. 288 ..

1,251 .. 2 .. 400 ..

1,405 .. 2 .. 420 ..

1,619 .. 2 .. .. ..

.. 216.2 .. .. 2.9 11.9 .. 10.6 71.8 41.8

.. 210.5 .. .. 2.7 12.7 .. 10.8 75.3 45.8

.. 179.1 .. .. 1.4 17.9 .. 9.6 78.2 50.5

.. 165.6 .. .. 1.1 18.0 .. 7.5 82.7 56.3

.. 141.9 .. .. 1.3 .. .. 7.0 83.6 62.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

631 403 1 632 63 -116

1,076 488 14 570 59 -10

360.4 230.5 25.3 9.2 5.9 4.3 1.2 7.3 66.1 23.1

432.9 196.4 29.8 9.7 4.4 2.8 1.2 11.2 60.8 31.0

1,015 511 5 559 90 22

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

468.8 235.9 22.9 7.5 3.8 3.8 1.9 7.1 70.6 38.6

261

MAURITANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,303 1,303 1,173 336 214 838 748 129 0 11 0 0 0

1,806 1,806 1,709 654 453 1,055 831 97 0 0 0 0 0

2,127 2,127 2,119 926 705 1,193 988 8 0 0 0 0 0

2,029 2,029 2,009 994 878 1,016 829 19 0 0 0 0 0

1,914 1,914 1,908 1,037 945 870 761 6 0 3 0 0 0

1,913 1,913 1,906 1,132 1,062 774 690 7 0 7 0 0 0

2,049 2,049 2,040 1,311 1,230 729 694 9 0 9 0 0 0

2,046 2,046 2,037 1,425 1,342 612 578 9 0 9 0 0 0

52 62 1,303 0

54 210 1,806 0

11 336 2,127 0

0 449 2,029 0

0 475 1,914 0

0 547 1,913 0

0 634 2,049 0

0 694 2,046 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

105 105 99 28 19 70 57 6 0 0 0 0 0

136 136 136 112 65 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

111 111 111 88 78 24 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

115 115 115 106 98 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

81 81 79 77 76 2 2 2 0 2 0 0 0

117 117 113 99 93 14 14 4 0 4 0 0 0

124 124 121 113 95 7 7 4 0 4 0 0 0

108 108 106 97 85 9 9 2 0 2 0 0 0

0 6

0 39

0 30

0 57

0 48

0 41

0 42

0 38

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

48 48 44 28 6 16 16 4 0 2 0 0 0

83 83 81 66 15 15 11 1 0 0 0 0 0

70 70 69 35 18 34 19 0 0 0 0 0 0

46 46 43 34 21 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 0

40 40 38 22 14 15 13 3 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 17 10 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 31 30 14 9 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 27 25 14 9 11 11 2 0 2 0 0 0

6 0

11 1

2 2

2 1

0 2

0 1

0 1

0 2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

27 27 25 15 4 10 9 2 0 2 0 0 0

35 35 34 20 7 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 0

32 32 32 15 8 17 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 20 18 14 10 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 20 12 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 13 11 8 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 11 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 17 14 11 4 4 1 0 1 0 0 0

4 1

4 1

1 2

0 2

0 3

0 3

0 4

0 5

262

MAURITANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.8 0.6 0.0 35.2

.. 1.3 0.6 0.0 34.3

.. 3.1 0.5 0.0 34.0

.. 3.6 0.4 0.0 40.9

14.1 3.3 0.4 0.0 41.0

9.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 43.1

3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 44.0

3.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 47.4

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

94 11 65 11 118 0 0 0 3 68 70 7 38 87 1 54 5 38 87 1 16 3 0 0 0 41 4 12 16 1 34 4 12 16 1 7 1 0 0 0 0 70 13 31 19 0 1 2 17 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 134 142 136 -155 -114 50 102 68 62 71 68 50 7 -71 -50 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

109 95 1 1 0 1 1 0 22 5 153 0

213 131 37 37 0 11 11 0 20 5 129 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 3 68 0

-23 59 114

87 38 111

-31 74 -9

2.1 29.8 7.3 59.1

3.1 31.2 8.5 56.8

1.1 34.7 9.7 75.1

1.5 33.7 8.7 69.5

1.7 34.0 9.3 68.7

1.8 26.5 7.3 61.9

1.3 33.8 8.0 67.2

1.9 31.2 8.3 64.9

2.1 29.8 7.3 59.1

3.1 31.2 8.5 56.8

1.1 34.7 9.7 75.1

1.5 33.7 8.7 69.5

1.6 34.7 9.5 70.3

1.8 26.5 7.3 61.9

1.3 33.8 8.0 67.2

1.9 31.2 8.3 64.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.8 9.8 1.8 16.6

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

61 25

60 26

55 26

57 26

61 25

63 24

66 23

75 22

60 24

58 25

54 25

56 25

60 25

62 24

65 23

75 22

21 7

18 8

14 9

14 9

17 9

17 9

17 9

23 9

39 17

40 17

40 17

42 16

43 16

45 15

48 14

52 13

2 1

2 0

2 0

2 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

263

MAURITIUS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

629 413 398 15 165 51 0 0 0

984 910 762 147 22 52 2 1 1

1,757 1,415 1,148 267 0 342 1 1 0

1,720 953 834 118 0 767 0 0 0

1,723 851 764 87 0 872 0 0 0

1,808 916 837 79 0 892 0 0 0

2,550 1,000 927 72 0 1,550 0 0 0

2,294 941 859 82 0 1,353 0 0 0

0 0 0

5 4 1

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

97 61 36 93 43 50 16 12 47 28 15 4 -31 140 71 66 4

161 161 0 103 60 44 76 18 52 43 5 5 23 156 103 48 5

409 409 0 154 154 0 312 58 72 56 0 16 241 225 210 0 16

132 132 0 402 402 0 -75 194 84 52 0 32 -159 485 453 0 32

71 71 0 133 133 0 43 106 69 38 0 31 -26 202 170 0 31

177 177 0 186 186 0 11 20 65 35 0 30 -54 251 221 0 30

112 112 0 141 141 0 629 658 94 37 0 58 535 235 177 0 58

74 74 0 174 174 0 -297 -197 85 35 0 50 -383 260 210 0 50

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

40 18 8 0 14 9

167 101 41 0 25 20

319 255 19 22 24 24

2 -269 266 -4 9 16

-88 -62 -28 -9 11 16

41 -9 32 -1 19 18

55 -29 63 8 13 21

-46 -100 14 19 21 23

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

11 28 1

102 43 23

248 56 16

-58 52 8

-130 38 5

-4 35 10

-5 37 24

-95 35 14

4,389 2,671 177 2,772 914 -37

4,538 2,925 215 2,717 853 276

4,534 3,030 215 2,872 1,249 249

5,239 3,225 215 3,184 1,603 93

5,998 3,512 215 3,669 1,633 -107

64.4 39.2 18.2 3.1 1.9 53.2 4.0 44.6 17.4 12.9

58.9 38.0 6.9 2.4 1.5 49.5 3.8 50.6 15.9 11.1

59.7 39.9 8.3 2.1 1.4 69.0 5.2 49.3 16.5 15.5

79.1 48.7 7.3 2.9 1.8 62.9 6.0 60.8 13.1 11.1

65.3 38.2 7.4 2.4 1.4 71.2 5.3 59.0 14.4 11.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

973 577 0 643 42 -30

2,363 1,778 0 1,994 761 -119

109.0 64.7 24.3 8.2 4.9 6.7 0.8 8.1 22.0 29.8

55.3 41.6 8.8 2.9 2.2 77.4 4.6 5.3 35.7 31.6

3,801 2,402 132 2,525 887 -22

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

73.1 46.2 9.4 3.0 1.9 50.5 4.2 19.5 25.1 15.4

264

MAURITIUS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

413 398 308 187 45 120 93 90 0 86 15 0 15

910 762 647 311 64 336 288 115 0 102 147 0 147

1,415 1,148 664 270 69 394 372 484 150 315 267 0 267

953 834 500 221 64 279 236 334 0 324 118 0 118

851 764 440 191 56 249 218 325 0 281 87 0 87

916 837 597 281 67 316 232 240 0 189 79 0 79

1,000 927 617 282 76 335 257 310 0 255 72 0 72

941 859 581 269 81 312 249 278 0 218 82 0 82

117 20 393 20

176 19 762 147

140 17 1,148 267

86 13 834 118

71 13 764 87

94 12 837 79

85 12 927 72

77 11 859 82

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

61 57 54 34 2 19 18 4 0 1 4 0 4

161 104 96 23 7 74 65 8 0 0 57 0 57

409 353 39 18 5 21 17 313 150 159 56 0 56

132 123 47 22 9 26 16 76 0 76 9 0 9

71 62 26 8 3 18 18 36 0 0 8 0 8

177 166 134 108 11 26 11 32 0 28 11 0 11

112 102 32 11 7 22 21 70 0 70 10 0 10

74 48 29 15 8 15 15 19 0 10 26 0 26

31 0

6 0

11 0

4 0

4 0

41 0

0 0

1 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

43 39 16 9 1 7 4 22 0 22 4 0 4

60 44 39 22 3 17 12 4 0 4 16 0 16

154 94 61 33 3 27 22 33 0 22 60 0 60

402 386 56 34 4 21 19 330 150 146 16 0 16

133 102 60 25 4 35 24 41 0 39 31 0 31

186 158 72 35 4 37 26 86 0 83 28 0 28

141 118 78 31 4 47 30 40 0 36 23 0 23

174 157 90 36 5 54 35 67 0 60 18 0 18

6 0

16 0

23 1

18 1

12 1

22 1

13 1

10 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

28 27 15 11 1 5 3 12 0 12 1 0 1

43 37 33 19 1 14 9 4 0 3 6 0 6

56 50 35 16 1 19 17 14 0 12 6 0 6

52 51 23 9 1 14 11 29 5 22 1 0 1

38 37 21 8 1 13 10 16 0 15 1 0 1

35 34 20 7 1 13 10 14 0 12 1 0 1

37 35 23 7 1 16 11 13 0 11 1 0 1

35 33 22 6 1 16 11 12 0 10 2 0 2

8 0

14 0

11 0

5 0

4 0

3 0

2 0

1 0

265

MAURITIUS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 9.8 0.9 29.2

.. 1.0 8.7 0.5 14.4

.. 1.2 1.8 0.2 42.3

.. 2.6 1.7 0.3 46.3

36.8 2.4 1.7 0.3 43.5

53.5 2.3 1.5 0.3 23.3

55.0 4.1 1.3 0.3 21.6

55.3 3.9 1.3 0.3 21.5

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 43 -23

85 11 59

741 629 96

-256 -297 42

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 80 138 374 -128 16 76 312 -75 36 40 21 -42 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS 4.7 18.8 6.8 35.7

6.0 17.9 6.3 26.7

6.0 9.6 4.7 19.2

6.4 6.1 2.7 13.8

3.9 13.6 3.4 32.2

2.8 11.6 2.9 32.6

2.5 7.7 1.2 22.4

2.6 10.5 2.5 28.6

4.5 17.1 6.1 36.8

6.0 17.9 6.3 26.7

5.2 17.5 5.6 30.5

3.9 15.7 4.7 36.5

3.7 14.7 4.1 35.3

2.7 11.9 3.2 34.1

0.0 19.1 10.1 74.1

2.6 15.7 3.9 41.3

6.5 0.0 6.3 7.5 4.2 3.8 30.0 0.0 6.1 1.9 11.1 8.8 11.0 0.0 4.3 1.9 1.8 0.5 28.3 0.0 14.3 3.7 24.8 21.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

2.6 7.3 0.9 20.7

2.5 1.0 0.0 5.1

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

201 40

173 34

159 28

131 23

124 19

110 15

89 11

69 8

103 23

105 21

91 19

94 17

88 14

78 11

64 9

56 7

69 15

68 12

50 10

49 8

48 7

45 5

33 4

28 3

34 8

36 9

41 9

45 8

41 7

34 6

31 6

29 5

98 17

68 13

68 9

37 6

35 5

31 3

25 2

12 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

266

MEXICO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

96,867 88,448 72,703 15,745 2,969 5,450 0 0 0

104,442 81,809 75,974 5,835 6,551 16,082 0 0 0

165,379 112,250 93,902 18,348 15,828 37,300 0 0 0

150,313 131,381 81,488 49,893 0 18,932 0 0 0

145,674 131,118 77,027 54,091 0 14,556 0 0 0

140,164 130,264 76,326 53,938 0 9,900 0 0 0

141,641 132,463 77,511 54,952 0 9,178 0 0 0

138,689 129,600 77,193 52,407 0 9,090 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

5,350 5,050 300 5,072 5,072 0 -712 -990 10,220 9,382 202 636 -10,932 15,293 14,454 202 636

14,229 12,045 2,184 4,012 2,821 1,191 17,637 7,420 7,301 5,797 522 982 10,336 11,313 8,618 1,712 982

42,966 29,678 13,288 15,309 14,165 1,144 25,635 -2,022 10,801 7,645 545 2,611 14,834 26,110 21,810 1,689 2,611

33,783 32,589 1,194 44,445 38,952 5,493 -15,792 -5,130 14,028 11,983 153 1,892 -29,820 58,473 50,935 5,646 1,892

36,137 36,137 0 34,683 34,683 0 -2,921 -4,376 12,622 11,785 0 837 -15,543 47,305 46,468 0 837

29,140 29,140 0 32,656 32,656 0 -8,172 -4,656 11,126 10,626 0 500 -19,298 43,782 43,282 0 500

30,929 30,929 0 31,493 31,493 0 -1,286 -722 10,671 10,331 0 340 -11,957 42,164 41,824 0 340

37,758 37,758 0 40,557 40,557 0 -2,888 -89 10,735 10,285 0 450 -13,622 51,292 50,842 0 450

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

2,040 -22 1,984 0 78 48

13,822 9,224 2,549 1,995 54 81

25,589 15,513 9,526 519 31 122

11,184 -6,363 17,077 447 23 111

29,312 1,454 27,687 151 20 121

11,901 -3,516 15,477 -104 43 179

11,617 -564 12,279 -123 25 160

12,096 -2,799 17,377 -2,522 40 140

-8,296 9,382 954

5,721 5,797 2,304

13,685 7,645 4,259

-6,730 11,983 5,932

12,025 11,785 5,503

-2,023 10,626 3,298

-2,060 10,331 3,346

-1,605 10,285 3,417

608,059 185,702 10,146 203,787 44,805 -17,642

636,989 187,651 11,029 201,603 50,671 -13,498

626,995 194,637 14,911 203,703 59,027 -8,604

665,559 223,665 18,143 231,450 64,202 -7,354

78.4 24.0 25.5 6.8 2.1 30.8 2.6 10.0 0.8 11.5

74.7 22.0 23.3 5.9 1.7 36.2 3.0 7.1 0.9 12.5

72.8 22.6 21.7 5.5 1.7 41.7 3.5 6.5 0.9 12.6

62.0 20.8 22.9 4.8 1.6 46.3 3.3 6.6 1.0 12.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

175,477 35,004 1,616 35,031 5,679 800

254,084 54,570 3,098 63,504 10,217 -7,451

276.7 55.2 43.7 29.2 5.8 5.9 1.9 5.6 0.4 6.2

191.4 41.1 20.7 13.4 2.9 9.8 1.9 15.4 0.8 13.7

273,409 96,707 4,368 98,571 17,046 -1,576

566,566 192,425 7,525 211,444 35,577 -18,598

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

171.0 60.5 27.0 11.2 4.0 10.3 2.1 22.6 0.9 11.3

267

78.1 26.5 30.4 7.3 2.5 23.7 2.0 12.6 0.8 11.5

MEXICO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

88,448 72,703 8,756 6,016 126 2,739 217 63,947 3,689 55,669 15,745 0 15,745

81,809 75,974 22,621 14,302 60 8,318 822 53,353 40,100 6,630 5,835 150 5,685

112,250 93,902 38,997 18,636 17 20,361 1,526 54,904 45,287 5,302 18,348 13,026 5,323

131,381 81,488 20,850 17,238 0 3,612 1,185 60,639 52,212 5,848 49,893 20,644 29,250

131,118 77,027 19,863 16,751 0 3,112 1,100 57,164 49,914 5,597 54,091 20,181 33,910

130,264 76,326 20,538 17,506 0 3,032 1,299 55,788 48,293 6,038 53,938 19,079 34,858

132,463 77,511 20,554 17,891 0 2,663 1,265 56,957 48,884 6,692 54,952 18,607 36,345

129,600 77,193 19,555 16,993 0 2,562 1,419 57,638 51,154 5,412 52,407 15,419 36,988

4,034 0 71,716 16,732

11,030 0 75,595 6,214

13,823 0 93,471 18,779

11,444 0 81,210 50,171

10,883 0 76,734 54,384

10,797 0 76,049 54,215

10,717 0 77,299 55,164

9,564 0 77,069 52,531

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5,050 3,935 1,590 1,144 0 446 6 2,345 43 1,878 1,115 0 1,115

12,045 9,985 5,454 3,647 0 1,807 636 4,532 975 2,552 2,060 150 1,910

29,678 23,399 13,426 2,663 0 10,763 10 9,973 7,059 1,699 6,279 843 5,435

32,589 11,483 2,855 2,534 0 322 4 8,628 6,826 1,658 21,106 3,346 17,760

36,137 13,827 1,639 1,388 0 252 10 12,187 9,600 2,418 22,311 1,685 20,626

29,140 10,646 2,629 2,244 0 386 231 8,017 4,367 3,556 18,494 2,504 15,991

30,929 14,848 2,438 2,276 0 162 99 12,409 7,676 4,508 16,081 2,505 13,576

37,758 16,753 2,148 1,734 0 414 297 14,605 8,103 6,305 21,006 3,922 17,084

840 0

3,326 0

1,732 0

1,748 0

749 0

1,247 0

1,258 0

764 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5,072 3,056 794 415 13 379 35 2,262 520 888 2,016 0 2,016

2,821 2,625 1,286 1,037 13 249 0 1,339 464 185 196 0 196

14,165 9,136 3,072 1,714 7 1,358 100 6,064 3,534 1,623 5,029 610 4,419

38,952 16,328 3,377 1,816 1 1,561 107 12,950 9,256 2,874 22,625 3,552 19,072

34,683 16,827 2,310 1,648 0 662 95 14,517 10,788 2,748 17,856 2,148 15,708

32,656 12,592 2,380 1,733 0 647 118 10,212 6,688 3,184 20,064 4,082 15,983

31,493 15,469 2,769 2,131 0 638 132 12,700 8,428 3,916 16,024 2,985 13,039

40,557 18,131 3,338 2,712 0 625 194 14,793 6,818 7,595 22,426 7,110 15,317

335 0

801 0

1,411 0

1,330 0

1,309 0

1,334 0

1,338 0

1,917 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

9,382 7,516 581 386 5 194 13 6,936 465 6,034 1,866 0 1,866

5,797 5,215 1,378 1,005 2 373 8 3,838 1,112 2,195 582 0 582

7,645 6,239 2,659 1,291 1 1,368 69 3,579 2,906 346 1,407 1,054 353

11,983 7,763 1,553 1,275 0 278 44 6,210 4,283 1,335 4,220 1,620 2,600

11,785 7,333 1,428 1,252 0 177 39 5,905 4,106 1,223 4,452 1,752 2,700

10,626 6,388 1,227 1,109 0 118 35 5,161 4,036 1,058 4,238 1,540 2,698

10,331 6,453 1,087 994 0 93 34 5,366 4,127 1,190 3,877 1,363 2,515

10,285 6,445 937 864 0 73 36 5,508 3,984 1,487 3,839 1,230 2,609

262 0

751 0

961 0

890 0

864 0

737 0

613 0

523 0

268

MEXICO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.6 1.4 0.7 83.1

.. 6.3 1.4 0.6 64.3

.. 8.3 0.7 0.4 65.2

.. 7.6 0.2 0.0 85.0

1.1 6.5 0.2 0.2 88.1

1.2 4.9 0.2 0.2 89.7

0.5 5.1 0.2 0.2 91.1

1.8 3.7 0.2 0.3 91.9

48,256 36,950 0 0 0 48,005 36,100 0 0 0 251 570 0 0 0 1 382 0 0 0 250 188 0 0 0 0 204 0 0 0 0 132 0 0 0 0 72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,145 306 7,122 8,832 0 0 13 6,644 8,400 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,037 10,601 26,833 -16,150 -4,639 -712 17,637 25,635 -15,792 -2,921 1,948 3,254 513 -2,376 -982 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,172 2,172

20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-5,511 -8,172 981

1,477 -1,286 2,101

-2,952 -2,888 505

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.5 12.7 3.1 2.9

8.6 13.4 5.4 7.3

8.0 7.1 2.7 6.6

7.7 10.9 7.8 10.7

7.1 15.5 13.1 15.1

5.8 16.0 10.1 23.3

4.9 12.2 10.4 22.5

5.3 14.8 10.5 26.0

9.1 14.8 3.4 4.6

7.8 15.6 4.5 12.3

9.1 9.3 2.9 5.5

5.4 14.7 4.8 27.0

5.6 19.0 5.0 26.2

4.1 17.9 4.8 34.6

2.4 13.6 7.3 44.2

2.1 12.1 3.6 38.7

9.8 9.4 6.2 8.4 7.3 6.6 11.1 11.5 3.6 9.7 14.9 15.1 2.8 6.1 2.5 8.7 14.4 12.6 1.7 2.9 8.4 5.5 13.4 17.7 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

5.0 12.1 10.5 21.4

5.8 15.3 11.6 24.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

20,649 9,143

19,047 8,068

12,185 6,959

15,942 6,019

13,164 4,820

6,513 3,983

5,737 3,349

4,762 2,966

2,380 887

2,483 795

2,039 694

1,882 610

2,740 533

1,518 429

1,860 356

1,503 286

594 92

540 76

296 61

310 53

234 46

188 39

184 33

178 27

1,785 795

1,942 719

1,743 633

1,572 557

2,506 488

1,330 390

1,676 323

1,326 259

18,269 8,256

16,564 7,273

10,146 6,264

14,060 5,409

10,424 4,287

4,995 3,554

3,877 2,993

3,259 2,680

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed debt, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. The increase in 1995 in long-term debt includes the stock transfer of the “Tesobonos.” Other: Data include partial Pidiregas debt beginning 2000.

269

MOLDOVA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

695 459 450 9 230 6 5 5 0

1,693 1,050 853 197 154 489 22 13 9

1,641 1,059 792 267 146 436 13 4 9

1,805 1,164 826 338 152 489 37 7 30

1,901 1,218 848 369 143 541 46 11 35

1,868 1,168 753 414 126 573 15 11 4

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

42 42 0

33 18 15

27 4 23

44 18 26

75 27 49

72 17 55

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

230 166 64 41 41 0 189 0 29 19 10 0 159 71 61 10 0

176 164 12 82 58 25 560 465 68 47 8 14 491 150 104 33 14

106 94 12 106 92 14 -45 -44 68 48 6 13 -113 175 140 21 13

139 127 12 185 167 18 -17 29 59 42 4 13 -76 244 209 21 13

95 95 0 110 88 22 28 43 49 32 2 15 -21 159 120 24 15

82 82 0 183 162 22 -38 63 64 47 3 15 -103 248 208 24 15

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

150 124 26 -1 0 0

274 107 127 3 37 44

111 2 53 3 54 41

126 -40 132 2 32 76

123 8 71 1 43 54

48 -80 81 -2 39 59

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

130 19 0

224 47 3

84 48 -21

47 42 37

63 32 31

-74 47 55

1,310 833 179 1,089 222 -98

1,576 990 243 1,167 229 -26

1,772 1,208 323 1,414 269 -66

2,215 1,553 486 1,839 302 -134

2,932 2,043 703 2,255 470 -69

203.2 129.2 18.1 8.2 5.2 13.1 2.5 28.9 12.2 24.0

165.7 104.1 17.6 6.9 4.3 13.9 2.4 26.5 12.6 24.2

149.4 101.9 20.2 4.9 3.3 14.9 2.3 27.1 14.6 23.7

122.4 85.8 10.3 3.2 2.2 15.9 2.0 28.5 16.1 23.6

91.4 63.7 12.1 3.2 2.2 25.2 2.5 30.7 18.7 24.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,724 899 1 1,038 257 -85

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

77.3 40.3 7.9 3.3 1.7 37.0 3.0 0.9 14.6 31.1

270

MOLDOVA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

459 450 430 216 0 214 101 19 0 4 9 0 9

1,050 853 746 406 104 340 102 107 75 12 197 0 197

1,059 792 725 397 114 328 93 67 40 12 267 0 267

1,164 826 767 428 147 339 116 59 36 7 338 0 338

1,218 848 794 448 180 346 126 54 34 9 369 0 369

1,168 753 711 449 209 262 140 42 32 10 414 0 414

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

152 0 450 9

191 103 842 208

181 113 783 277

186 145 822 342

190 175 847 370

185 201 753 414

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

166 159 139 81 0 58 58 19 0 4 7 0 7

164 54 52 50 30 1 0 2 0 0 110 0 110

94 30 30 30 15 0 0 0 0 0 64 0 64

127 36 36 35 24 1 1 0 0 0 91 0 91

95 24 24 22 18 2 2 0 0 0 71 0 71

82 24 24 21 19 2 2 0 0 0 58 0 58

.. ..

.. ..

50 0

6 30

4 14

4 22

2 16

2 17

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

41 39 39 35 0 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 2

58 30 27 22 0 5 5 3 0 0 28 0 28

92 61 32 24 0 8 6 29 25 0 31 0 31

167 85 41 32 0 9 5 44 44 0 82 0 82

88 47 41 36 0 4 2 6 2 1 41 0 41

162 79 74 36 0 38 0 6 2 0 83 0 83

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

5 0

7 0

9 0

11 0

13 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

19 19 19 11 0 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

47 40 28 18 1 10 3 11 7 0 7 0 7

48 40 32 18 1 14 3 9 7 0 8 0 8

42 26 23 13 1 10 3 3 2 0 16 0 16

32 20 17 11 1 5 2 3 2 0 12 0 12

47 32 28 10 2 18 3 4 2 0 14 0 14

.. ..

.. ..

8 0

11 1

10 1

8 1

7 1

6 2

271

MOLDOVA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 8.4 0.0 0.0 22.8

.. 3.4 0.0 0.0 66.9

10.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 68.4

10.6 2.9 0.0 0.0 68.3

10.3 3.0 0.0 0.0 68.5

10.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 66.0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 25

68 9 12 1 11 2 1 1 0 0 0 0

3 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 3 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 59 0

-52 -45 -24

164 -17 48

96 28 60

-33 -38 27

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 246 .. 0 19 .. 0 94 .. 0 76 .. 0 18 .. 0 6 .. 0 5 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 193 671 .. .. 189 560 .. .. -9 -32 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

6.9 9.8 3.0 13.1

1.1 35.4 9.4 74.8

0.8 36.1 9.2 78.0

0.8 39.9 10.4 80.8

0.8 39.9 10.4 80.8

0.9 37.5 9.6 77.7

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

6.9 10.6 3.3 14.0

0.4 39.7 10.2 83.4

0.8 36.1 9.2 78.0

0.8 39.9 10.4 80.8

0.8 39.9 10.4 80.8

0.9 37.5 9.6 77.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 7.0 5.9 0.0 .. .. 6.0 3.2 0.0 .. .. 1.5 3.2 0.0 .. .. 8.1 10.4 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

178 40

158 30

83 28

80 21

101 18

67 14

59 11

56 9

53 23

48 21

45 18

46 16

48 14

48 12

45 10

46 8

20 12

21 11

21 10

21 9

22 8

22 6

22 5

24 4

33 11

27 10

24 9

25 8

26 7

26 6

23 5

23 4

125 17

109 10

38 10

34 5

53 4

19 2

13 1

9 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are based on government statistics and World Bank staff estimates. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

272

MONGOLIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

530.7 472.1 472.1 0.0 47.0 11.7 0.5 0.0 0.5

896.4 833.4 833.4 0.0 50.3 12.8 1.7 1.6 0.1

885.0 823.7 823.7 0.0 46.8 14.4 3.3 3.3 0.0

1,035.8 949.0 949.0 0.0 42.6 44.2 3.0 3.0 0.0

1,472.3 1,137.5 1,137.5 0.0 49.6 285.2 3.2 3.2 0.0

1,517.0 1,305.7 1,305.7 0.0 44.3 167.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

3.6 0.8 2.9

17.3 17.0 0.3

14.9 14.9 0.0

15.3 15.3 0.0

15.3 15.3 0.0

27.3 27.3 0.0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

100.8 100.8 0.0 41.9 32.4 9.5 67.1 8.2 10.1 8.6 1.1 0.4 57.0 52.1 41.0 10.6 0.4

83.1 75.2 7.8 28.2 21.8 6.4 45.4 -9.5 10.5 9.4 0.3 0.8 34.9 38.6 31.2 6.6 0.8

87.7 82.5 5.2 34.9 28.1 6.8 52.8 0.0 10.4 9.8 0.2 0.4 42.3 45.3 37.9 7.1 0.4

82.0 82.0 0.0 39.9 32.2 7.7 72.2 30.1 12.5 11.8 0.2 0.5 59.7 52.4 44.0 7.9 0.5

122.5 111.1 11.4 273.9 265.4 8.6 89.3 240.8 14.3 12.1 0.2 2.0 75.0 288.2 277.5 8.8 2.0

127.5 127.5 0.0 20.2 12.9 7.2 -7.7 -115.0 20.9 14.0 0.2 6.7 -28.6 41.1 26.9 7.4 6.7

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

152.7 68.4 10.0 0.0 74.3 56.3

189.3 53.4 54.0 0.0 81.9 61.1

164.6 54.4 43.0 0.0 67.2 66.4

195.4 49.8 78.0 0.0 67.6 69.4

45.0 -154.3 132.0 0.0 67.3 76.9

279.6 114.5 92.9 0.0 72.1 74.6

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

126.3 8.6 17.8

171.1 9.4 8.8

148.9 9.8 5.9

178.5 11.8 5.1

27.9 12.1 5.0

256.2 14.0 9.5

934.2 638.5 12.0 790.7 202.1 -69.9

1,014.3 676.5 25.0 846.1 256.6 -62.1

1,113.0 778.3 56.0 964.6 398.5 -105.0

1,262.9 977.7 128.6 1,109.4 242.8 -98.7

1,601.2 1,422.5 202.5 1,432.3 250.4 63.4

140.4 96.0 6.1 1.6 1.1 22.5 3.1 1.4 91.2 51.5

130.8 87.2 6.7 1.5 1.0 29.0 3.6 1.6 91.5 54.6

133.1 93.1 6.7 1.6 1.1 38.5 5.0 4.3 90.3 54.8

150.6 116.6 29.5 1.5 1.1 16.5 2.6 19.4 76.3 46.7

106.6 94.7 2.9 1.5 1.3 16.5 2.1 11.0 85.2 53.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,203.9 511.3 0.0 549.5 157.5 38.9

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

103.8 44.1 10.2 2.0 0.8 29.7 3.4 2.2 68.3 32.0

273

MONGOLIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

472.1 472.1 404.2 169.9 169.9 234.3 192.8 67.9 0.0 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

833.4 833.4 830.8 462.1 462.1 368.8 355.8 2.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

823.7 823.7 822.8 483.4 483.4 339.4 326.4 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

949.0 949.0 948.3 567.3 567.3 381.0 368.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

1,137.5 1,137.5 1,136.9 688.0 688.0 448.9 435.9 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

1,305.7 1,305.7 1,305.3 808.7 808.7 496.6 483.6 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 58.7 450.5 21.6

0.0 137.1 831.9 1.4

0.0 154.9 823.7 0.0

0.0 180.5 949.0 0.0

0.0 227.0 1,137.5 0.0

0.0 287.0 1,305.7 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

100.8 100.8 95.2 58.3 58.3 37.0 33.4 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

75.2 75.2 75.2 47.3 47.3 28.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

82.5 82.5 82.5 54.6 54.6 27.9 27.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

82.0 82.0 82.0 41.9 41.9 40.1 40.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

111.1 111.1 111.1 72.4 72.4 38.7 38.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

127.5 127.5 127.5 91.8 91.8 35.7 35.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. ..

.. ..

0.0 8.4

0.0 14.1

0.0 23.5

0.0 13.9

0.0 28.6

0.0 48.7

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

32.4 32.4 13.2 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.4 19.2 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

21.8 21.8 19.1 0.0 0.0 19.1 15.6 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

28.1 28.1 26.8 0.0 0.0 26.8 26.8 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

32.2 32.2 32.1 1.3 1.3 30.8 30.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

265.4 265.4 265.2 1.7 1.7 263.6 263.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.9 12.9 12.8 4.0 4.0 8.8 8.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. ..

.. ..

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.7

0.0 1.5

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

8.6 8.6 4.7 1.1 1.1 3.5 2.1 3.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.4 9.4 9.1 4.1 4.1 5.0 4.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.8 9.8 9.7 4.1 4.1 5.6 5.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.8 11.8 11.8 4.7 4.7 7.1 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.1 12.1 12.1 5.6 5.6 6.4 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.0 14.0 13.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. ..

.. ..

0.0 0.4

0.0 1.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 1.2

0.0 1.4

0.0 2.3

274

MONGOLIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 26.5 0.0 2.3 38.1

.. 25.0 0.0 0.7 35.8

5.6 23.5 0.0 0.7 38.4

6.5 23.6 0.0 0.8 38.3

7.9 23.2 0.0 0.7 39.9

8.0 22.4 0.0 0.7 42.9

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 66.3 -17.7 -11.5 .. .. 67.1 45.4 52.8 .. .. 0.2 -60.3 -63.1 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

150.9 72.2 74.5

436.4 89.3 102.6

44.7 -7.7 50.5

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

2.2 35.3 10.1 65.4

1.2 31.9 9.3 72.6

1.0 34.0 9.1 74.4

1.2 33.5 8.5 71.8

1.2 19.4 5.4 53.9

0.8 39.9 10.0 80.5

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

2.2 35.3 10.1 65.4

1.2 31.9 9.3 72.6

1.0 34.0 9.1 74.4

1.2 33.5 8.5 71.8

1.2 29.3 8.8 70.5

0.8 39.9 10.0 80.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 10.4 2.4 38.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

24.9 15.7

31.9 18.9

39.3 20.0

44.8 20.0

48.6 19.9

50.9 19.5

56.9 19.0

59.9 18.2

23.2 15.7

28.6 18.9

36.0 20.0

41.7 19.9

45.4 19.7

47.8 19.4

53.8 18.9

56.8 18.1

16.4 6.6

18.7 6.7

22.1 6.7

22.7 6.5

23.8 6.3

23.8 6.0

27.1 5.7

27.5 5.3

6.9 9.1

9.9 12.2

13.9 13.3

19.0 13.4

21.6 13.5

24.0 13.4

26.7 13.2

29.3 12.8

1.7 0.0

3.3 0.0

3.3 0.0

3.1 0.1

3.1 0.2

3.1 0.1

3.1 0.1

3.1 0.1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Country data have been revised from 1999–2001. Rescheduling: Mongolia reached an agreement with Russia on December 30, 2003 to settle its Transferable Rubles (TR) debt valued at US$11.4 billion. The agreement consists of 97.8 percent up-front debt forgiveness, with a US$250 million residual cash settlement, much of which was borrowed either domestically or externally, and part of it was financed from the country's international reserves.

275

MOROCCO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

16,056 13,579 13,379 200 1,274 1,202 136 58 79

25,004 23,847 23,647 200 750 407 182 182 0

23,771 23,521 23,190 331 52 198 92 92 0

20,713 19,140 17,278 1,862 0 1,573 122 122 1

19,163 17,476 15,723 1,753 0 1,687 122 121 1

18,399 16,696 14,784 1,912 0 1,703 122 121 0

18,910 17,657 15,164 2,493 0 1,253 11 11 0

17,672 17,461 14,863 2,598 0 211 11 11 0

451 20 431

738 738 0

138 136 2

535 531 4

535 531 4

533 531 2

8 8 0

12 12 0

1,347 1,129 218 686 522 164 654 -7 743 549 93 102 -89 1,429 1,071 257 102

1,853 1,788 65 908 680 228 1,032 86 887 795 72 20 145 1,795 1,475 300 20

2,309 2,309 0 2,368 2,268 100 -81 -22 1,391 1,360 7 24 -1,472 3,759 3,628 107 24

1,638 1,638 0 1,627 1,627 0 -444 -455 1,075 949 0 127 -1,519 2,702 2,576 0 127

1,189 1,189 0 1,651 1,651 0 -348 114 1,004 934 0 70 -1,352 2,655 2,585 0 70

1,447 1,447 0 2,587 2,587 0 -1,124 16 1,122 1,078 0 44 -2,246 3,709 3,665 0 44

2,227 2,227 0 2,965 2,965 0 -1,077 -339 1,329 1,298 0 31 -2,406 4,294 4,263 0 31

1,208 1,208 0 2,378 2,378 0 -2,212 -1,042 618 592 0 26 -2,830 2,996 2,971 0 26

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,043 607 20 0 416 95

1,753 1,108 165 0 480 182

254 41 92 20 100 266

441 11 221 18 191 193

-151 -462 144 -7 174 211

-906 -1,140 79 -8 163 283

1,813 -738 2,313 8 230 351

584 -1,170 769 572 413 382

473 549 21

889 795 69

-1,207 1,360 101

-776 949 268

-1,486 934 401

-2,465 1,078 482

-79 1,298 594

-678 592 670

33,068 14,758 3,261 13,441 8,669 1,611

35,355 15,453 2,877 14,429 10,375 1,477

43,024 18,234 3,614 17,140 14,147 1,582

49,380 21,358 4,221 21,035 16,647 970

129.9 57.9 18.0 6.8 3.0 45.2 7.7 8.8 30.1 29.9

119.1 52.0 24.0 7.3 3.2 56.4 8.6 9.3 31.6 30.9

103.7 44.0 23.5 7.3 3.1 74.8 9.9 6.6 28.6 30.5

82.7 35.8 14.0 2.9 1.3 94.2 9.5 1.2 30.2 34.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

12,192 4,127 973 5,125 345 -891

24,798 8,328 2,006 8,853 2,338 -196

389.0 131.7 34.6 18.0 6.1 2.2 0.8 7.5 30.0 11.9

300.2 100.8 21.5 10.7 3.6 9.3 3.2 1.6 31.8 18.7

31,758 11,265 1,970 12,812 3,874 -1,186

32,462 12,890 2,161 13,686 5,017 -475

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

211.0 74.8 33.4 12.3 4.4 16.3 3.6 0.8 27.7 29.1

276

160.7 63.8 21.0 8.3 3.3 24.2 4.4 7.6 29.5 29.4

MOROCCO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

13,579 13,379 8,264 1,910 296 6,354 4,522 5,115 48 2,624 200 0 200

23,847 23,647 16,968 4,687 405 12,280 7,556 6,679 0 3,963 200 0 200

23,521 23,190 16,875 6,913 642 9,962 5,949 6,315 0 4,234 331 0 331

19,140 17,278 12,791 6,096 1,000 6,694 5,115 4,487 152 3,300 1,862 0 1,862

17,476 15,723 11,756 5,723 981 6,033 4,793 3,966 114 2,995 1,753 0 1,753

16,696 14,784 11,722 5,691 984 6,031 4,824 3,062 102 2,192 1,912 0 1,912

17,657 15,164 11,689 5,764 962 5,924 4,437 3,476 587 2,095 2,493 0 2,493

17,461 14,863 11,803 6,015 987 5,787 4,355 3,060 589 1,832 2,598 0 2,598

1,288 43 13,288 291

3,099 39 23,583 264

3,966 33 22,944 577

2,837 27 17,116 2,023

2,500 25 15,620 1,856

2,549 24 14,681 2,015

2,719 22 15,056 2,600

2,524 21 14,798 2,663

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,129 1,087 791 447 26 344 296 296 0 1 42 0 42

1,788 1,780 1,220 781 39 439 287 560 0 190 8 0 8

2,309 2,206 1,521 1,008 102 513 378 686 0 224 103 0 103

1,638 980 629 466 61 164 119 351 0 143 658 0 658

1,189 637 542 367 55 175 144 96 0 15 552 0 552

1,447 692 602 483 95 118 118 91 0 47 754 0 754

2,227 1,586 853 637 93 217 183 733 452 169 640 0 640

1,208 969 857 647 91 210 207 111 0 91 240 0 240

307 0

426 0

426 0

138 0

61 0

45 0

142 0

129 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

522 511 400 138 9 262 32 111 21 4 11 0 11

680 672 430 276 13 154 33 242 0 40 8 0 8

2,268 2,238 1,638 625 22 1,012 266 600 0 112 30 0 30

1,627 1,588 922 550 52 372 234 666 30 350 39 0 39

1,651 1,593 1,065 529 61 536 310 528 29 282 58 0 58

2,587 1,958 1,335 797 66 538 392 623 31 395 628 0 628

2,965 2,524 1,694 1,239 146 455 303 830 37 588 441 0 441

2,378 2,093 1,454 803 77 651 503 639 40 395 285 0 285

87 0

202 1

348 1

307 1

279 1

267 1

305 1

468 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

549 542 266 108 11 158 24 275 5 179 7 0 7

795 790 580 306 7 274 57 210 0 45 5 0 5

1,360 1,358 923 466 20 457 142 436 0 259 2 0 2

949 877 548 363 32 185 118 329 14 228 71 0 71

934 886 656 407 78 248 189 231 13 153 48 0 48

1,078 1,055 924 328 34 596 556 131 14 64 23 0 23

1,298 1,236 1,122 303 37 819 788 115 0 64 62 0 62

592 508 381 247 37 134 112 126 25 58 85 0 85

81 0

226 0

282 0

190 0

173 0

145 0

126 0

104 0

277

MOROCCO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.7 0.3 0.8 52.0

.. 2.2 0.1 0.2 40.1

.. 3.8 0.2 0.1 27.2

.. 3.3 0.1 0.1 37.6

36.1 3.4 0.1 0.2 37.1

38.4 4.0 0.1 0.2 34.8

47.6 4.8 0.0 0.2 28.0

49.8 5.1 0.0 0.1 25.2

738 4,118 0 0 0 0 2,732 0 0 0 540 590 0 0 0 269 388 0 0 0 271 203 0 0 0 184 218 0 0 0 84 136 0 0 0 100 82 0 0 0 1 31 0 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,148 2,773 798 -2,260 -1,550 654 1,032 -81 -444 -348 1,019 1,097 757 -735 -555 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-764 -1,124 1,357

511 -1,077 1,459

-1,238 -2,212 673

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.3 18.6 4.8 12.5

6.8 19.9 6.2 24.0

4.6 19.0 5.1 33.7

3.5 23.4 6.0 44.7

3.7 19.6 5.5 40.6

3.5 18.2 4.3 39.8

4.1 16.1 4.8 33.0

3.4 19.3 4.5 41.3

7.4 21.7 5.1 18.2

5.4 24.1 8.3 36.1

4.4 19.8 5.4 35.8

3.4 25.0 6.4 47.4

3.7 19.6 5.5 40.7

3.5 18.5 4.4 40.6

3.8 20.1 5.2 38.2

3.4 19.7 4.7 42.2

10.8 9.7 7.1 4.8 6.8 5.1 9.2 11.6 9.7 10.7 8.6 11.5 3.7 2.1 1.5 2.8 2.4 0.4 -4.8 0.0 10.5 23.5 8.0 18.7 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

4.5 8.5 4.1 23.2

4.2 12.4 0.5 24.8

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,028 774

2,314 697

2,147 627

2,618 554

2,099 449

1,810 370

1,156 302

1,058 260

1,818 550

1,406 517

1,298 481

1,278 439

1,315 391

1,283 339

1,092 289

1,001 250

856 255

677 230

626 214

617 195

632 173

634 149

498 125

455 109

962 295

729 287

672 267

661 244

683 218

649 190

594 164

546 141

1,210 224

908 180

849 146

1,340 115

785 58

527 31

65 13

57 10

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and on private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

278

MOZAMBIQUE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,871 2,712 2,701 11 0 158 78 25 54

4,650 4,231 4,211 19 74 345 207 76 131

7,458 6,978 5,209 1,769 202 279 250 245 5

7,000 6,217 4,500 1,717 219 564 399 390 9

4,443 3,751 2,201 1,550 196 497 225 216 9

4,592 4,025 2,512 1,513 200 367 240 239 1

4,543 3,998 2,809 1,189 209 336 274 270 4

4,651 4,108 3,157 951 197 345 293 288 5

227 122 105

725 373 352

1,086 1,074 12

519 507 13

189 186 2

186 184 2

192 191 2

188 186 2

404 404 0 34 34 0 371 0 30 23 0 7 341 63 57 0 7

242 230 12 41 41 0 173 -28 38 23 0 15 136 79 64 0 15

267 267 0 85 71 14 193 11 77 75 1 1 116 162 145 15 1

184 125 60 64 64 0 56 -64 32 20 1 11 24 96 84 1 11

145 134 11 71 71 0 181 107 19 8 1 10 163 90 79 1 10

284 273 11 51 46 5 87 -146 27 18 1 8 61 78 64 6 8

225 213 12 60 51 9 101 -64 25 22 1 3 75 85 73 10 3

312 310 2 52 43 9 250 -10 30 28 1 2 219 83 71 10 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

545 371 0 0 174 51

948 189 9 0 750 92

1,011 196 45 0 770 233

925 61 139 0 725 174

974 63 255 0 656 166

2,395 227 348 0 1,820 201

1,106 162 337 0 607 228

1,326 266 245 0 815 209

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

522 23 0

925 23 0

936 75 0

905 20 0

946 8 20

2,349 18 28

1,042 22 42

1,131 28 168

3,546 769 37 1,763 742 -764

3,393 1,073 42 1,906 727 -657

3,919 1,230 53 2,709 825 -869

4,588 1,434 69 2,443 948 -816

5,746 1,836 58 2,755 1,159 -607

910.6 197.4 12.5 4.2 0.9 10.6 5.1 8.1 49.2 15.8

414.2 131.0 8.4 1.7 0.5 16.4 4.6 11.2 46.0 26.4

373.2 117.2 6.3 2.2 0.7 18.0 3.7 8.0 51.4 32.3

316.9 99.0 5.9 1.8 0.6 20.9 4.7 7.4 58.2 39.8

253.2 80.9 4.5 1.7 0.5 24.9 5.0 7.4 64.3 46.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

4,357 184 41 624 46 -301

2,320 300 70 1,164 232 -415

1,562.6 65.9 34.5 16.2 0.7 1.6 0.9 5.5 47.7 4.4

1,550.9 200.4 26.2 12.6 1.6 5.0 2.4 7.4 44.8 10.0

2,069 470 59 1,254 195 -445

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

1,585.6 360.6 34.5 16.4 3.7 2.6 1.9 3.7 39.4 17.1

279

MOZAMBIQUE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,712 2,701 1,958 127 88 1,831 1,280 743 0 121 11 0 11

4,231 4,211 3,560 464 405 3,097 1,677 651 0 147 19 0 19

6,978 5,209 5,163 1,277 1,196 3,886 1,741 46 0 7 1,769 0 1,769

6,217 4,500 4,489 1,108 1,070 3,381 2,374 11 0 0 1,717 0 1,717

3,751 2,201 2,198 1,171 1,134 1,026 910 3 0 0 1,550 0 1,550

4,025 2,512 2,510 1,483 1,452 1,027 909 2 0 0 1,513 0 1,513

3,998 2,809 2,808 1,807 1,777 1,001 868 2 0 0 1,189 0 1,189

4,108 3,157 3,155 2,158 2,122 998 867 2 0 0 951 0 951

0 5 2,700 13

0 268 4,211 19

0 890 5,209 1,769

0 760 4,500 1,717

0 777 2,201 1,550

0 985 2,512 1,513

0 1,232 2,809 1,189

0 1,475 3,157 951

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

404 402 344 13 5 331 320 58 0 0 2 0 2

230 210 186 95 89 91 91 24 0 0 20 0 20

267 231 231 219 208 11 11 0 0 0 36 0 36

125 125 125 122 120 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

134 134 134 124 118 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

273 273 273 240 238 33 29 0 0 0 0 0 0

213 213 213 203 199 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

310 310 310 302 299 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 5

0 74

0 160

0 97

0 52

0 149

0 156

0 190

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

34 30 27 3 1 24 22 3 0 1 3 0 3

41 29 23 9 4 13 5 7 0 3 12 0 12

71 67 58 13 6 45 18 9 0 0 3 0 3

64 34 33 18 8 15 14 1 0 1 30 0 30

71 41 41 29 19 12 12 0 0 0 30 0 30

46 21 21 9 6 12 11 0 0 0 25 0 25

51 27 27 11 7 16 12 0 0 0 24 0 24

43 20 20 9 8 11 7 0 0 0 23 0 23

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 2

0 3

0 2

0 2

0 4

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

23 22 18 1 1 17 12 4 0 0 1 0 1

23 22 17 7 3 10 6 6 0 1 0 0 0

75 74 71 12 7 59 12 3 0 0 1 0 1

20 20 20 9 7 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 6 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 11 10 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 22 22 12 11 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 28 17 16 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 1

0 6

0 4

0 4

0 5

0 6

1 11

280

MOZAMBIQUE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 1.9 2.1 0.0 64.8

.. 1.8 2.4 0.0 52.8

.. 1.8 2.1 0.0 60.4

.. 1.9 2.2 0.0 67.5

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.3

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.8

3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.5

3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4

347 386 66 0 270 0 0 0 0 264 188 225 162 0 2 76 133 159 0 2 112 92 2 0 0 37 118 57 0 3 0 83 57 0 3 36 35 0 0 0 0 210 311 8 27 0 14 12 3 289 0 950 0 71 2,298 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 1,432 287 187 29 -2,557 371 173 193 56 181 37 176 86 -262 -91 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 2 29 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84 2 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 12 0

148 87 112

-48 101 147

107 250 64

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.6 28.8 8.8 56.9

1.4 34.6 9.2 71.2

0.9 36.8 9.3 76.4

0.8 46.7 12.9 82.9

0.7 40.8 10.8 81.5

0.9 35.7 9.3 76.0

0.8 41.4 9.8 79.2

0.7 38.7 9.1 75.8

2.6 29.2 9.0 57.6

1.3 34.8 9.2 71.7

0.9 36.8 9.3 76.4

0.8 46.7 12.9 82.9

0.7 40.8 10.8 81.5

0.9 35.7 9.3 76.0

0.8 41.4 9.8 79.2

0.7 38.7 9.1 75.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.5 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.6 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

119 49

124 47

128 46

129 44

127 42

134 40

142 38

151 35

101 44

103 43

108 42

106 40

105 38

113 37

119 34

126 32

68 23

69 21

69 19

65 17

60 15

60 13

59 11

60 9

33 21

34 22

39 23

42 23

45 23

54 23

60 23

66 23

18 5

21 4

21 4

22 4

22 4

21 3

23 3

25 3

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are preliminary, based on reports provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates and include private debt from Cahora Bassa. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004 and the 1999 rescheduling agreement with the Russian Federation.

281

MYANMAR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,098 2,903 2,903 0 108 86 0 0 0

4,695 4,466 4,466 0 0 229 200 168 32

5,771 5,378 5,378 0 0 393 351 285 67

5,928 5,242 5,242 0 0 686 488 442 46

5,670 5,007 5,007 0 0 664 500 454 46

6,583 5,391 5,391 0 0 1,192 632 577 54

7,319 5,857 5,857 0 0 1,461 745 684 61

7,239 5,647 5,647 0 0 1,593 774 710 63

4 4 0

376 291 85

1,359 1,100 259

1,738 1,516 222

1,802 1,583 218

2,203 1,958 245

2,613 2,343 270

2,724 2,446 278

310 310 0 144 115 29 237 71 79 70 6 4 158 223 185 35 4

122 122 0 46 44 2 91 14 14 13 0 2 76 60 57 2 2

86 86 0 180 180 0 -74 20 70 68 0 2 -144 250 248 0 2

15 15 0 71 71 0 -16 41 16 4 0 12 -31 87 75 0 12

9 9 0 70 70 0 -95 -34 13 5 0 8 -109 84 76 0 8

5 5 0 94 94 0 308 397 19 8 0 11 289 113 102 0 11

3 3 0 93 93 0 66 155 28 14 0 14 38 121 107 0 14

2 2 0 93 93 0 12 103 33 13 0 20 -21 125 105 0 20

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

255 195 0 0 60 47

278 78 163 0 37 34

350 -95 280 0 164 45

247 -56 258 0 45 51

212 -61 210 0 64 56

138 -89 152 0 75 60

231 -90 251 0 70 53

207 -91 214 0 84 40

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

185 70 0

118 13 147

282 68 0

106 4 137

-321 5 528

-452 8 583

-534 14 752

-567 13 762

.. 2,252 104 2,662 286 -212

.. 3,053 117 3,354 464 -154

.. 2,960 107 2,951 549 97

.. 3,047 85 3,102 647 -19

.. 3,303 118 3,244 773 112

263.3 .. 3.9 0.7 .. 4.8 1.3 11.6 70.4 19.4

185.7 .. 2.7 0.4 .. 8.2 1.7 11.7 70.7 20.0

222.4 .. 3.8 0.6 .. 8.3 2.2 18.1 66.9 18.5

240.1 .. 4.0 0.9 .. 8.8 2.5 20.0 66.5 17.9

219.2 .. 3.8 1.0 .. 10.7 2.9 22.0 64.6 17.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. 384 0 673 116 -208

.. 328 6 797 410 -436

807.3 .. 58.2 20.6 .. 3.7 2.1 2.8 80.3 22.5

1,433.2 .. 18.4 4.4 .. 8.7 6.2 4.9 87.6 26.3

.. 1,404 81 2,146 651 -261

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

411.0 .. 17.8 5.0 .. 11.3 3.6 6.8 84.7 23.1

282

MYANMAR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,903 2,903 2,552 697 692 1,855 1,796 351 0 17 0 0 0

4,466 4,466 4,216 1,234 1,228 2,982 2,884 250 0 0 0 0 0

5,378 5,378 5,011 1,331 1,328 3,680 3,558 367 0 0 0 0 0

5,242 5,242 4,262 1,148 1,148 3,114 3,024 980 0 546 0 0 0

5,007 5,007 4,095 1,133 1,133 2,962 2,876 911 0 546 0 0 0

5,391 5,391 4,506 1,216 1,216 3,290 3,188 884 0 546 0 0 0

5,857 5,857 4,979 1,308 1,308 3,672 3,556 878 0 546 0 0 0

5,647 5,647 4,794 1,285 1,285 3,508 3,390 853 0 546 0 0 0

0 411 2,903 0

0 716 4,466 0

0 777 5,378 0

0 684 5,242 0

0 693 5,007 0

0 729 5,391 0

0 762 5,857 0

0 774 5,647 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

310 310 289 64 64 225 223 21 0 1 0 0 0

122 122 119 68 68 51 51 3 0 0 0 0 0

86 86 17 0 0 16 16 69 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 12 1 1 11 11 3 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 7 2 2 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 1 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 41

0 57

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

115 115 38 3 3 35 32 77 0 7 0 0 0

44 44 33 15 14 18 18 11 0 0 0 0 0

180 180 147 25 24 122 122 34 0 0 0 0 0

71 71 2 2 2 0 0 69 0 0 0 0 0

70 70 6 2 2 4 4 65 0 0 0 0 0

94 94 34 2 2 31 31 61 0 0 0 0 0

93 93 57 2 2 55 55 35 0 0 0 0 0

93 93 61 2 2 58 58 32 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 3

0 9

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

70 70 44 7 6 38 34 26 0 1 0 0 0

13 13 10 10 10 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0

68 68 66 13 12 53 50 2 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 2 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 7 0 0 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0

14 14 13 0 0 12 12 2 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 12 0 0 12 12 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 3

0 5

0 6

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

283

MYANMAR (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 43.6 2.6 0.4 26.5

.. 46.8 1.7 0.0 24.3

.. 52.3 1.3 0.0 22.6

.. 45.3 1.2 0.0 34.9

10.4 44.2 1.3 0.0 35.5

12.0 45.1 1.3 0.0 32.8

12.2 46.9 1.4 0.0 30.6

11.9 46.4 1.5 0.0 31.5

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 760 504 -785 -76 -258 237 91 -74 -16 -95 495 306 -755 -577 -173 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

913 308 468

735 66 555

-79 12 -21

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.2 29.6 8.1 54.3

2.7 13.7 3.4 39.3

1.4 14.4 8.7 39.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.4 31.8 9.1 61.9

1.5 16.7 5.2 53.3

2.8 33.0 24.4 62.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 16.9 11.6 6.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 10.7 29.4 28.8 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

330 59

315 51

300 43

294 35

273 27

239 20

127 14

119 12

219 35

216 31

208 27

202 23

182 20

147 16

127 14

119 12

156 24

155 21

148 17

141 14

123 11

88 8

68 7

60 5

63 11

61 10

60 10

61 9

59 9

59 8

59 8

60 7

111 25

99 20

92 16

91 12

91 7

91 3

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data relate to the year ending in March. Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for end-March 2004 are estimates based on the original terms of the loans. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

284

NEPAL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

590 545 545 0 22 23 0 0 0

1,640 1,572 1,572 0 44 24 4 4 0

2,418 2,346 2,346 0 48 23 2 2 0

2,846 2,805 2,805 0 12 29 0 0 0

2,716 2,654 2,654 0 8 54 0 0 0

2,972 2,929 2,929 0 4 40 0 0 0

3,200 3,176 3,176 0 11 13 0 0 0

3,354 3,332 3,332 0 22 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

6 6 0

8 3 5

1 1 0

1 1 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

111 100 11 14 6 8 97 -1 9 7 0 2 87 23 13 8 2

168 168 0 41 29 12 129 2 29 25 2 2 100 70 54 14 2

164 164 0 53 45 8 71 -40 32 29 0 2 39 85 74 8 2

154 154 0 72 67 4 69 -14 30 28 0 3 38 102 95 4 3

112 112 0 65 61 4 71 25 28 26 0 2 44 93 87 4 2

70 70 0 74 70 4 -19 -14 28 27 0 1 -47 102 97 4 1

240 230 10 82 79 3 131 -27 30 30 0 1 101 112 109 3 1

118 107 11 84 83 1 20 -13 30 30 0 0 -10 114 113 1 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

173 95 1 0 78 70

282 139 0 0 143 106

290 119 0 0 171 142

230 86 0 0 143 108

234 51 0 0 183 123

198 0 -6 0 204 132

384 151 15 0 218 150

288 24 0 0 265 118

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

165 7 0

257 25 0

261 29 0

202 28 0

208 26 0

127 27 45

312 30 42

214 30 45

5,514 1,466 111 1,825 987 -131

5,598 1,351 147 1,759 1,080 -165

5,554 1,649 678 1,733 1,070 215

5,843 1,868 771 2,001 1,286 180

6,685 2,080 823 2,264 1,529 197

194.2 51.6 7.0 2.1 0.5 34.7 6.5 1.0 98.4 86.3

201.0 48.5 6.9 2.1 0.5 39.8 7.4 2.0 97.6 86.7

180.2 53.5 6.2 1.7 0.5 36.0 7.4 1.3 98.3 88.1

171.3 54.8 6.0 1.6 0.5 40.2 7.7 0.4 99.0 85.6

161.3 50.2 5.5 1.4 0.4 45.6 8.1 0.0 99.2 86.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,620 323 0 564 105 -122

3,640 447 0 845 354 -289

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

182.4 22.5 7.1 2.9 0.4 17.9 2.2 3.9 88.5 77.2

366.6 45.1 15.7 6.5 0.8 21.6 5.0 1.5 88.5 77.3

4,407 1,129 57 1,659 646 -356

4. DEBT INDICATORS 214.1 54.9 7.5 2.8 0.7 26.7 4.7 0.9 94.2 80.8

285

NEPAL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

545 545 528 455 450 72 72 17 0 0 0 0 0

1,572 1,572 1,461 1,268 1,259 193 193 110 0 0 0 0 0

2,346 2,346 2,281 1,952 1,949 329 329 65 0 0 0 0 0

2,805 2,805 2,800 2,457 2,457 343 343 5 0 0 0 0 0

2,654 2,654 2,650 2,354 2,354 295 295 5 0 0 0 0 0

2,929 2,929 2,923 2,619 2,619 304 304 5 0 0 0 0 0

3,176 3,176 3,170 2,738 2,738 432 432 6 0 0 0 0 0

3,332 3,332 3,326 2,890 2,890 436 436 6 0 0 0 0 0

0 236 545 0

0 667 1,566 5

0 1,023 2,346 0

0 1,132 2,805 0

0 1,122 2,654 0

0 1,210 2,929 0

0 1,388 3,176 0

0 1,491 3,332 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

100 100 94 84 82 10 10 6 0 0 0 0 0

168 168 166 146 146 20 20 2 0 0 0 0 0

164 164 164 151 151 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0

154 154 154 142 142 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0

112 112 112 103 103 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

70 70 70 65 65 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

230 230 230 116 116 114 114 0 0 0 0 0 0

107 107 107 92 92 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 33

0 68

0 82

0 49

0 43

0 34

0 102

0 72

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

29 29 13 10 10 3 3 16 0 0 0 0 0

45 45 40 24 24 16 16 5 0 0 0 0 0

67 67 60 37 37 22 22 8 0 0 0 0 0

61 61 61 38 38 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

70 70 70 45 45 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 78 51 51 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0

83 83 83 58 58 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 2

0 7

0 16

0 17

0 20

0 22

0 27

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

7 7 6 4 4 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 14 10 10 4 4 12 0 0 0 0 0

29 29 24 17 17 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 27 22 22 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0

26 26 26 21 21 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

27 27 27 22 22 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 23 23 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 25 25 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 2

0 5

0 7

0 8

0 8

0 9

0 9

0 11

286

NEPAL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 8.0 0.4 0.0 48.3

.. 8.4 0.2 0.0 49.6

.. 11.2 0.1 0.0 43.8

.. 8.5 0.1 0.0 38.7

2.2 7.4 0.1 0.0 41.2

2.4 6.9 0.1 0.0 40.4

2.5 10.5 0.1 0.0 42.9

2.4 10.1 0.1 0.0 42.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 120 272 90 -147 -130 97 129 71 69 71 14 126 9 -188 -174 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

256 -19 221

228 131 276

154 20 132

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.6 42.2 8.8 73.1

0.9 39.2 10.3 78.8

3.5 29.8 7.9 48.6

1.4 31.4 8.1 69.5

1.3 31.0 8.3 69.9

1.1 35.6 11.4 76.3

0.9 37.4 9.7 77.6

1.0 36.8 9.5 76.8

1.0 44.5 9.2 78.2

0.9 39.2 10.3 78.8

3.5 29.8 7.9 48.6

1.4 31.4 8.1 69.5

1.3 31.0 8.3 69.9

1.1 35.6 11.4 76.3

0.9 37.4 9.7 77.6

1.0 36.8 9.5 76.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.9 24.8 7.5 46.9

9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

90 36

99 39

113 44

124 44

134 44

144 43

149 41

153 40

89 36

98 38

113 44

123 44

134 44

144 43

149 41

153 40

26 7

27 7

35 6

35 6

34 5

35 5

35 4

32 4

63 30

71 32

78 38

88 38

100 38

109 38

114 37

121 36

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

1 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

287

NICARAGUA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

5,772 4,931 4,931 0 0 841 294 283 11

10,745 8,313 8,313 0 0 2,432 1,693 1,067 626

10,390 8,566 8,566 0 39 1,785 1,475 1,458 17

6,853 5,774 5,492 281 169 911 789 776 13

6,408 5,577 5,437 140 158 674 535 521 14

6,483 5,754 5,573 181 174 554 420 407 13

6,911 6,102 5,894 209 213 595 434 421 14

5,145 4,403 4,125 278 248 495 362 348 14

266 250 16

2,464 1,491 973

3,230 2,914 316

1,035 820 216

964 747 217

802 589 213

807 594 213

685 473 211

716 716 0 33 24 9 737 53 31 26 0 5 706 64 50 9 5

577 577 0 4 4 0 593 21 11 5 0 6 582 16 9 0 6

277 277 0 203 190 13 88 13 85 76 1 8 3 288 266 14 8

527 500 27 189 183 5 341 3 98 90 1 7 243 286 274 6 7

308 308 0 263 258 5 62 17 73 68 1 5 -11 337 326 6 5

296 287 9 104 100 4 188 -4 48 43 1 4 140 151 142 5 4

362 333 29 131 126 5 257 26 55 49 1 6 202 187 174 6 6

408 367 41 80 71 9 301 -28 46 39 1 6 254 126 110 10 6

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

740 693 0 0 47 29

813 572 0 0 241 73

587 87 89 0 410 132

838 317 267 0 255 116

838 50 150 0 637 140

617 187 204 0 226 112

903 207 201 0 495 103

1,675 296 250 0 1,129 107

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

709 26 5

808 5 0

482 76 29

678 90 69

693 68 77

503 43 71

778 49 77

1,556 39 80

3,735 1,453 320 2,377 492 -792

3,862 1,468 336 2,411 384 -796

3,826 1,528 377 2,381 453 -767

3,959 1,753 439 2,582 508 -749

4,362 2,181 519 3,053 668 -772

471.8 183.5 19.7 6.7 2.6 7.2 2.5 13.3 45.2 30.9

436.5 165.9 22.9 5.0 1.9 6.0 1.9 10.5 51.2 34.3

424.3 169.4 9.9 3.1 1.2 7.0 2.3 8.6 54.5 37.4

394.3 174.6 10.6 3.2 1.4 7.4 2.4 8.6 57.6 39.1

235.9 117.9 5.8 2.1 1.1 13.0 2.6 9.6 63.4 53.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,515 346 0 1,199 .. -771

988 404 0 911 166 -305

1,668.8 229.5 18.5 9.0 1.2 .. .. 14.6 31.2 12.2

2,659.6 1,087.8 3.9 2.8 1.2 1.5 2.2 22.6 30.6 8.8

2,821 744 75 1,529 142 -722

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

1,397.0 368.3 38.7 11.5 3.0 1.4 1.1 17.2 37.6 14.1

288

NICARAGUA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

4,931 4,931 3,502 705 357 2,798 1,441 1,428 0 1,319 0 0 0

8,313 8,313 6,767 940 355 5,827 2,929 1,545 0 1,305 0 0 0

8,566 8,566 7,556 1,464 769 6,092 3,136 1,010 524 383 0 0 0

5,774 5,492 5,138 2,119 1,778 3,019 1,319 354 0 326 281 0 281

5,577 5,437 5,093 2,200 1,890 2,893 1,392 344 0 321 140 0 140

5,754 5,573 5,227 2,424 2,125 2,803 1,406 346 0 324 181 0 181

6,102 5,894 5,543 2,704 2,427 2,839 1,555 350 0 327 209 0 209

4,403 4,125 3,811 2,752 2,643 1,059 620 314 0 291 278 0 278

163 59 4,918 13

239 60 8,313 0

65 276 8,566 0

5 654 5,547 226

0 691 5,512 65

0 811 5,680 74

0 998 6,011 91

0 1,167 4,125 278

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

716 716 697 16 11 681 398 20 0 4 0 0 0

577 577 554 7 0 546 370 23 0 0 0 0 0

277 277 258 177 117 80 67 20 0 20 0 0 0

500 215 213 170 168 43 34 2 0 0 285 0 285

308 235 231 184 184 47 21 3 0 0 74 0 74

287 220 212 202 202 11 11 8 0 7 66 0 66

333 259 252 227 227 25 25 7 0 6 74 0 74

367 299 299 285 285 13 13 1 0 0 68 0 68

0 0

0 0

0 18

0 87

0 63

0 72

0 112

0 126

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

24 24 17 1 0 16 2 7 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 1 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0

190 190 89 47 20 42 2 101 0 96 0 0 0

183 70 61 36 17 26 8 8 0 5 114 0 114

258 68 62 30 11 32 10 6 0 3 191 0 191

100 60 58 10 6 48 22 3 0 2 39 0 39

126 74 74 16 7 58 42 1 0 1 52 0 52

71 28 28 11 10 17 10 0 0 0 43 0 43

0 0

1 0

15 1

5 2

5 1

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

26 26 12 5 2 7 2 14 0 10 0 0 0

5 5 4 1 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

76 76 72 33 11 39 19 3 0 3 0 0 0

90 78 75 64 37 12 7 3 0 2 12 0 12

68 55 52 30 14 22 14 3 0 2 13 0 13

43 38 36 16 10 21 16 1 0 1 5 0 5

49 42 41 18 13 23 20 1 0 1 6 0 6

39 33 32 22 21 10 10 0 0 0 7 0 7

0 0

1 0

6 2

1 5

0 2

0 2

0 3

0 6

289

NICARAGUA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.5

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.9

.. 1.3 0.0 0.0 72.7

.. 2.3 0.0 0.0 71.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

259 30 263 149 31 0 0 0 141 0 210 94 68 0 148 82 73 0 61 12 127 30 77 62 7 30 40 58 120 0 37 3 0 0 438 28 0 0 723 7 0 0 1,200 0 0 0 89 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 965 1,060 -1,606 -56 737 593 88 341 61 83 -58 -119 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

11.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 73.3

12.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 72.7

12.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 72.6

1.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 80.4

190 142 20 18 2 29 28 1 79 346 87 0

78 0 42 42 1 36 35 1 289 172 0 0

110 0 37 37 0 19 19 0 251 173 0 0

176 0 177 177 0 1 1 0 423 179 1,154 0

-445 62 -127

74 188 166

428 257 244

-1,766 301 98

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.7 11.8 2.2 24.6

4.6 12.1 1.7 23.6

2.7 30.6 7.9 58.9

1.5 37.1 9.8 71.6

0.9 39.1 10.2 78.3

1.9 35.4 9.9 67.0

1.2 35.0 9.2 72.6

0.9 39.0 10.0 78.4

4.6 11.8 2.2 24.8

4.4 12.4 1.8 24.5

2.3 32.2 8.4 62.5

1.6 36.9 9.7 70.8

0.9 39.1 10.2 78.3

1.9 35.4 9.9 67.0

1.2 35.0 9.2 72.6

0.9 39.0 10.0 78.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.8 9.4 7.4 0.7 0.0 5.2 4.9 9.0 39.9 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.0 10.5 0.0 1.6 0.9 8.6 80.5 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

158 66

156 66

157 64

161 62

179 59

175 56

130 53

139 50

105 63

102 63

105 62

110 60

128 57

124 54

122 52

131 49

54 17

45 16

43 15

44 13

49 12

40 11

34 10

33 9

51 46

57 47

62 47

66 46

80 45

85 43

88 42

98 40

53 3

53 3

52 2

51 2

51 2

51 2

8 2

8 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are actual, based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2003. It includes the effect of agreements reached with Mexico ($950 million) and República Bolivariana de Venezuela ($159 million) in 1991, with Brazil in 1992 ($66 million), and with Argentina ($76 million) and Cuba ($7 million) in 1993 and agreements with the Russian Federation ($442 million), Czech Republic ($141 million), Honduras ($117 million), Mexico ($91 million), and El Salvador ($23 million) in 1996. It includes the 2002 Paris Club agreement under “Cologne Terms”. Debt reduction. In 1995 debt reduction was $1.2 billion using the IDA facility.

290

NIGER (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,195 1,018 819 199 78 99 1 1 0

1,726 1,487 1,226 261 85 154 31 16 16

1,572 1,448 1,314 133 52 72 53 53 0

1,673 1,527 1,459 68 74 72 60 60 0

1,583 1,470 1,408 62 81 32 27 27 0

1,791 1,658 1,604 54 106 27 26 26 0

2,084 1,944 1,898 46 131 9 6 6 0

1,950 1,811 1,772 39 135 3 3 3 0

8 2 5

80 39 41

74 74 0

97 97 0

77 77 0

67 67 0

54 54 0

52 52 0

123 107 16 56 54 2 104 37 52 41 3 7 52 107 95 6 7

148 139 9 63 47 16 123 38 36 23 3 9 87 99 71 19 9

28 28 0 41 31 10 -9 4 15 13 1 1 -24 56 43 11 1

87 76 11 16 14 2 52 -20 10 8 0 2 41 26 22 2 2

89 78 11 20 20 1 61 -7 8 7 0 0 54 28 27 1 0

140 118 22 17 15 2 119 -4 9 8 0 0 110 26 23 3 0

141 117 24 22 17 5 120 2 11 10 1 0 109 33 28 6 0

137 125 13 37 30 7 98 -3 14 13 1 0 84 51 43 7 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

222 53 -9 0 178 76

358 91 41 0 226 101

174 -3 7 0 170 109

183 62 8 1 112 48

215 58 23 1 133 51

243 103 2 0 138 53

396 100 15 0 281 59

524 94 0 0 430 61

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

174 41 6

312 23 23

158 13 4

173 8 2

211 7 -3

232 8 3

376 10 9

508 13 0

1,782 338 14 485 80 -104

1,930 355 22 506 107 -92

2,146 352 19 561 134 -165

2,718 444 26 724 260 -219

3,068 .. 26 .. 258 ..

494.7 93.9 7.7 3.0 0.6 4.8 2.0 4.3 72.9 60.9

445.5 82.0 7.9 2.1 0.4 6.8 2.5 2.0 77.4 65.0

509.0 83.5 7.4 2.4 0.4 7.5 2.9 1.5 80.4 67.9

469.4 76.7 7.5 2.5 0.4 12.5 4.3 0.4 79.8 68.8

.. 63.6 .. .. 0.5 13.2 .. 0.2 89.1 81.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,398 318 9 534 140 -64

2,423 566 14 803 226 -236

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

375.2 85.5 33.7 16.2 3.7 11.7 3.1 8.3 32.7 22.9

304.7 71.2 17.4 6.3 1.5 13.1 3.4 8.9 48.3 40.6

1,830 333 8 510 95 -152

4. DEBT INDICATORS 471.2 85.9 16.7 4.4 0.8 6.0 2.2 4.6 64.2 55.6

291

NIGER (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,018 819 653 273 225 379 166 167 0 98 199 0 199

1,487 1,226 1,115 701 656 413 178 111 0 109 261 0 261

1,448 1,314 1,314 874 835 441 174 0 0 0 133 0 133

1,527 1,459 1,459 1,019 991 440 229 0 0 0 68 0 68

1,470 1,408 1,408 1,029 1,010 379 216 0 0 0 62 0 62

1,658 1,604 1,604 1,216 1,202 387 238 0 0 0 54 0 54

1,944 1,898 1,898 1,433 1,418 465 244 0 0 0 46 0 46

1,811 1,772 1,772 1,589 1,565 184 173 0 0 0 39 0 39

0 147 814 204

0 461 1,223 264

0 598 1,314 133

0 723 1,459 68

0 753 1,408 62

0 867 1,604 54

0 1,007 1,898 46

0 1,106 1,772 39

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

107 77 76 39 38 37 25 1 0 0 29 0 29

139 96 90 69 69 21 21 5 0 5 43 0 43

28 28 28 28 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

76 76 76 76 71 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

78 78 78 73 73 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

118 118 118 115 115 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

117 117 117 117 117 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125 125 125 124 112 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 22

0 55

0 24

0 68

0 64

0 69

0 73

0 65

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

54 23 16 7 4 9 3 6 0 2 31 0 31

47 10 9 7 3 2 2 2 0 0 37 0 37

31 7 7 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 24

14 12 12 10 10 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 2

20 13 13 12 6 2 1 0 0 0 6 0 6

15 7 7 6 5 1 1 0 0 0 8 0 8

17 9 9 7 5 2 2 0 0 0 8 0 8

30 24 24 19 17 5 2 0 0 0 7 0 7

0 0

0 1

0 3

0 8

0 2

0 1

0 2

0 2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

41 29 17 6 2 11 2 12 0 10 12 0 12

23 7 7 6 4 1 1 0 0 0 16 0 16

13 7 7 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 6

8 8 8 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 6 6 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

8 7 7 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

10 10 10 8 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1

13 12 12 11 11 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

0 1

0 3

0 5

0 6

0 4

0 5

0 6

0 7

292

NIGER (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 1.2 0.0 16.6

.. 1.3 0.8 0.0 27.1

.. 4.5 1.0 0.3 37.2

.. 1.8 1.2 0.0 47.1

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

34 29 5 28 0 0 0 18 33 12 1 5 7 12 1 5 25 0 0 0 15 16 1 1 8 16 1 1 7 0 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 239 230 62 6 104 123 -9 52 79 36 -37 -62 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

25.4 1.6 1.0 0.0 50.1

22.2 1.4 1.0 0.0 52.0

23.1 1.3 0.9 0.0 51.2

12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.0

46 0 28 28 0 18 18 0 70 43 0 0

85 16 49 49 0 20 20 0 22 5 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 12 0 0

3 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 279 2 0 0

-90 61 -49

209 119 99

292 120 132

-134 98 69

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.9 31.3 7.2 55.4

1.9 31.9 9.2 65.0

0.6 33.5 8.4 70.9

0.7 36.5 9.4 74.7

1.0 38.9 9.4 76.9

1.3 33.7 8.2 70.0

0.9 40.1 9.3 75.3

1.0 40.7 10.0 78.0

2.9 31.6 7.3 56.2

1.9 31.9 9.2 65.0

0.6 33.5 8.4 70.9

0.7 36.5 9.4 74.7

1.0 38.9 9.4 76.9

1.3 33.7 8.2 70.0

0.9 40.1 9.3 75.3

1.0 40.7 10.0 78.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

122 17

59 15

63 15

66 15

69 14

63 13

59 12

63 12

115 16

52 14

57 14

60 14

62 13

56 13

59 12

63 12

62 3

7 1

7 1

7 1

6 1

5 1

4 1

5 1

53 13

45 13

50 13

53 13

57 13

52 12

55 12

58 11

7 1

7 1

7 1

7 1

7 0

7 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

293

NIGERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

18,643 13,649 12,233 1,416 0 4,994 78 12 66

33,439 31,935 31,545 391 0 1,504 1,040 465 575

34,092 28,441 28,140 301 0 5,651 4,717 4,211 506

31,355 30,235 30,020 215 0 1,120 44 43 0

31,042 29,399 29,218 181 0 1,643 415 415 0

30,476 28,206 28,057 149 0 2,270 1,475 1,475 0

34,963 31,563 31,563 0 0 3,400 2,658 2,655 2

35,890 31,304 31,304 0 0 4,586 3,235 3,233 2

162 1 161

1,091 194 897

8,102 6,545 1,557

117 114 3

116 113 3

957 953 3

1,360 1,357 3

1,886 1,883 4

1,639 1,639 0 2,704 2,704 0 -422 643 1,721 1,285 0 436 -2,143 4,425 3,989 0 436

927 927 0 1,180 1,180 0 -34 219 2,155 2,123 0 32 -2,190 3,336 3,304 0 32

433 433 0 918 918 0 -559 -73 915 859 0 56 -1,474 1,833 1,777 0 56

153 153 0 1,091 1,091 0 -696 241 754 690 0 64 -1,451 1,845 1,781 0 64

67 67 0 1,715 1,715 0 -1,497 151 828 804 0 24 -2,325 2,543 2,519 0 24

81 81 0 1,148 1,148 0 -1,501 -433 342 324 0 18 -1,842 1,490 1,472 0 18

181 181 0 1,217 1,217 0 -1,089 -53 419 409 0 10 -1,508 1,636 1,626 0 10

223 223 0 1,374 1,374 0 -543 609 1,038 1,024 0 13 -1,580 2,412 2,399 0 13

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

-576 -1,065 486 0 4 40

459 -253 588 0 125 94

626 -486 1,079 0 33 79

252 -937 1,140 0 49 80

-367 -1,648 1,191 0 90 105

912 -1,068 1,874 0 105 157

1,080 -1,036 2,006 0 111 178

872 -1,151 1,875 0 149 256

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-2,278 1,285 417

-1,799 2,123 135

-1,563 859 1,330

-2,717 690 2,279

-3,175 804 2,003

-1,349 324 1,937

-847 409 1,518

-1,226 1,024 1,074

43,728 21,011 1,167 18,733 10,647 2,478

40,287 19,530 1,209 18,651 7,567 1,083

49,908 27,247 1,063 17,731 7,415 9,504

60,325 29,423 2,273 17,138 17,257 12,264

147.7 71.0 12.1 3.9 1.9 34.3 6.8 5.3 4.3 9.3

156.0 75.6 7.6 1.7 0.8 24.8 4.9 7.4 4.8 9.5

128.3 70.1 6.0 1.5 0.8 21.2 5.0 9.7 43.7 8.5

122.0 59.5 8.2 3.5 1.7 48.1 12.1 12.8 43.2 8.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

27,385 13,520 10 10,647 1,892 2,604

25,585 14,771 10 9,858 4,129 4,988

137.9 68.1 32.7 12.7 6.3 10.1 2.1 26.8 1.9 7.7

226.4 130.7 22.6 14.6 8.4 12.3 5.0 4.5 1.6 11.2

25,888 13,246 804 15,820 1,709 -2,578

37,720 22,574 1,392 15,383 10,099 7,429

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

257.4 131.7 13.8 6.9 3.5 5.0 1.3 16.6 4.0 14.5

294

138.9 83.1 8.2 3.3 2.0 32.2 7.9 3.6 4.6 10.5

NIGERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

13,649 12,233 2,149 1,431 35 718 326 10,084 0 3,505 1,416 0 1,416

31,935 31,545 17,007 3,732 36 13,275 485 14,537 0 5,714 391 0 391

28,441 28,140 20,492 4,944 339 15,548 1,038 7,648 2,051 0 301 0 301

30,235 30,020 26,574 3,302 755 23,272 702 3,446 2,051 0 215 0 215

29,399 29,218 25,933 2,881 738 23,053 601 3,285 2,051 0 181 0 181

28,206 28,057 25,538 2,891 831 22,646 640 2,519 1,441 0 149 0 149

31,563 31,563 29,178 2,984 947 26,194 14,345 2,385 1,442 23 0 0 0

31,304 31,304 29,062 2,964 1,132 26,098 14,363 2,241 1,442 20 0 0 0

1,357 35 12,233 1,416

3,284 36 31,545 391

3,221 268 28,077 365

1,625 644 29,964 271

1,337 621 29,171 228

1,275 676 28,012 194

1,201 787 31,521 43

1,027 967 31,266 38

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,639 1,549 385 288 0 97 7 1,164 0 82 90 0 90

927 927 642 542 7 100 100 285 0 0 0 0 0

433 433 433 433 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

153 153 153 153 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

67 67 67 67 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

81 81 81 81 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

181 181 179 179 65 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

223 223 223 223 157 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

271 0

384 7

189 86

31 55

18 9

1 19

0 63

0 156

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,704 2,579 495 46 1 450 25 2,084 0 1,200 125 0 125

1,180 1,165 774 246 1 528 5 391 0 388 15 0 15

918 908 470 470 2 0 0 438 0 0 10 0 10

1,091 1,056 914 404 5 510 0 142 0 0 35 0 35

1,715 1,680 1,530 324 8 1,206 9 150 0 0 34 0 34

1,148 1,116 506 305 12 202 26 610 452 0 32 0 32

1,217 1,217 967 350 18 618 115 250 0 4 0 0 0

1,374 1,374 1,229 364 21 865 278 145 0 3 0 0 0

41 1

241 1

392 1

273 4

207 8

178 11

203 17

216 19

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,285 1,243 167 85 0 83 8 1,076 0 414 42 0 42

2,123 2,120 1,300 262 0 1,038 312 820 0 378 3 0 3

859 840 323 323 2 0 0 516 128 0 19 0 19

690 673 516 190 5 326 0 157 128 0 18 0 18

804 787 631 139 5 492 15 156 128 0 18 0 18

324 313 160 143 6 17 3 153 128 0 11 0 11

409 409 315 137 7 178 15 94 90 1 0 0 0

1,024 1,024 889 120 13 769 465 135 90 1 0 0 0

82 0

243 0

266 2

103 5

79 5

70 5

62 5

49 11

295

NIGERIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.5 7.9 1.4 48.8

.. 8.2 11.8 0.7 38.8

.. 12.6 9.9 0.6 29.6

.. 2.3 1.5 0.0 85.1

1.9 2.0 1.5 0.0 86.6

2.2 2.1 1.3 0.1 86.2

39.8 12.3 16.4 2.4 21.9

40.8 12.0 16.5 2.6 21.4

1,415 1,480 0 20,920 1,186 1,415 0 0 0 0 0 1,280 0 12,027 22 0 1,090 0 10,024 14 0 191 0 2,003 7 0 169 0 8,471 57 0 149 0 7,920 56 0 21 0 551 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 286 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 873 3,317 1,000 2,227 -313 -422 -34 -559 -696 -1,497 1,170 2,014 606 -1,189 -279 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 610 452

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-566 -1,501 392

4,487 -1,089 408

927 -543 1,641

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.5 13.2 3.7 6.9

6.6 19.0 5.2 23.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 34.7 10.2 78.7

1.0 34.9 10.3 75.5

1.3 20.5 5.2 48.3

0.8 35.6 9.9 78.6

0.8 34.8 10.1 78.6

8.8 14.9 4.2 5.4

5.8 22.4 6.1 30.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 34.7 10.2 78.7

1.0 34.9 10.3 75.5

1.3 20.5 5.2 48.3

0.8 35.6 9.9 78.6

0.8 34.8 10.1 78.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.3 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,159 1,350

3,037 1,208

2,420 1,071

2,405 954

2,237 839

1,806 733

1,688 651

1,641 571

2,924 1,224

2,803 1,096

2,186 972

2,171 868

2,003 766

1,643 673

1,596 596

1,551 522

2,490 1,113

2,398 1,005

1,848 900

1,848 812

1,794 725

1,477 641

1,483 572

1,476 502

434 111

405 90

338 72

323 56

209 41

166 32

113 24

75 20

235 125

234 112

234 99

234 86

234 73

163 60

92 55

90 49

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and private-nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country and World Bank staff estimates. Historical data from 1992 to 2002 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimtes, based on the BIS data on international lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004. It includes the effects of the 2002 buyback operation of the Brady Bonds.

296

OMAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,329 1,907 1,907 0 0 422 0 0 0

2,736 2,400 2,400 0 0 335 1 1 0

5,776 5,235 2,637 2,598 0 541 2 2 0

6,564 5,266 2,970 2,296 0 1,299 0 0 0

6,021 4,755 2,687 2,068 0 1,266 1 0 0

4,708 3,520 2,049 1,471 0 1,188 0 0 0

3,963 2,719 1,558 1,161 0 1,244 0 0 0

3,872 2,565 1,209 1,356 0 1,307 0 0 0

0 0 0

3 3 0

35 29 6

4 0 4

16 8 8

17 12 5

11 8 3

0 0 0

668 668 0 147 147 0 650 129 142 113 0 29 508 289 260 0 29

125 125 0 536 536 0 -425 -14 203 177 0 25 -627 739 714 0 25

637 637 0 583 583 0 116 62 370 349 0 20 -253 953 933 0 20

527 527 0 479 479 0 -489 -537 385 298 0 87 -874 864 777 0 87

700 700 0 1,310 1,310 0 -643 -33 356 297 0 59 -999 1,667 1,608 0 59

289 289 0 1,535 1,535 0 -1,323 -77 214 161 0 53 -1,537 1,748 1,696 0 53

278 278 0 1,114 1,114 0 -780 56 162 125 0 36 -941 1,275 1,239 0 36

633 633 0 796 796 0 -100 63 197 147 0 50 -297 993 942 0 50

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

723 521 161 0 41 9

-212 -411 142 0 57 13

115 54 46 0 15 17

154 48 82 -10 35 15

-213 -610 389 -3 11 10

-1,149 -1,246 25 34 38 5

-175 -836 528 94 39 6

9 -163 -17 147 42 9

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

58 113 552

-779 177 390

-741 349 507

-973 298 830

-1,498 297 988

-2,600 161 1,290

-1,944 125 1,644

-1,562 147 1,425

19,241 11,883 39 8,466 2,445 1,885

19,557 11,937 39 8,968 3,174 1,367

20,713 12,563 39 10,011 3,594 880

23,359 14,436 40 12,167 3,598 443

50.7 31.3 14.0 3.0 1.9 40.6 3.5 21.0 19.1 13.4

39.4 24.1 14.6 1.8 1.1 67.4 4.2 25.2 23.4 17.2

31.5 19.1 10.1 1.3 0.8 90.7 4.3 31.4 27.5 19.6

26.8 16.6 6.9 1.4 0.8 92.9 3.5 33.7 25.2 16.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

9,680 5,391 43 4,428 1,185 -10

11,380 5,990 39 3,971 1,784 1,106

43.2 24.1 5.4 2.6 1.5 50.9 3.2 18.1 10.6 4.2

45.7 24.0 12.3 3.4 1.8 65.2 5.4 12.3 8.9 4.7

13,406 6,442 39 5,734 1,943 -801

19,115 12,061 39 7,480 2,460 3,129

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

89.7 43.1 14.8 5.7 2.8 33.6 4.1 9.4 9.9 3.4

297

54.4 34.3 7.2 3.2 2.0 37.5 3.9 19.8 13.3 7.9

OMAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,907 1,907 384 97 19 287 228 1,524 0 820 0 0 0

2,400 2,400 327 129 49 198 194 2,073 0 1,720 0 0 0

5,235 2,637 665 199 108 466 461 1,972 0 1,470 2,598 0 2,598

5,266 2,970 983 520 457 463 417 1,987 225 1,480 2,296 0 2,296

4,755 2,687 1,291 804 753 487 399 1,396 225 781 2,068 0 2,068

3,520 2,049 1,214 809 766 406 336 834 0 510 1,471 0 1,471

2,719 1,558 1,205 778 742 426 349 353 0 133 1,161 0 1,161

2,565 1,209 1,079 646 634 432 341 130 0 23 1,356 550 806

43 0 1,907 0

52 0 2,400 0

25 0 2,637 2,598

3 0 2,970 2,296

1 0 2,687 2,068

0 0 2,049 1,471

0 0 1,558 1,161

0 0 1,209 1,356

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

668 668 75 28 10 47 47 593 0 404 0 0 0

125 125 34 22 12 13 13 91 0 0 0 0 0

637 322 117 58 37 58 58 205 0 132 315 0 315

527 394 89 23 21 66 20 305 0 263 133 0 133

700 486 368 308 308 60 18 118 0 26 214 0 214

289 119 99 13 13 85 85 21 0 0 170 0 170

278 49 39 5 5 34 34 9 0 0 229 0 229

633 43 36 4 4 33 22 7 0 0 590 550 40

9 0

9 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

147 147 55 9 0 47 32 91 0 6 0 0 0

536 536 46 30 10 16 15 490 0 370 0 0 0

583 281 48 23 10 24 24 234 0 178 302 0 302

479 234 64 24 14 40 39 170 0 32 245 0 245

1,310 643 68 24 14 44 43 575 0 462 667 0 667

1,535 769 186 25 13 162 162 582 225 271 766 0 766

1,114 574 84 52 43 33 33 490 0 378 539 0 539

796 401 171 139 115 32 32 230 0 109 395 0 395

6 0

16 0

9 0

3 0

1 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

113 113 17 5 0 12 4 97 0 61 0 0 0

177 177 14 6 0 8 8 163 0 133 0 0 0

349 184 29 11 6 18 18 155 0 109 166 0 166

298 155 32 14 10 18 18 123 16 79 143 0 143

297 152 45 28 22 18 16 107 16 64 145 0 145

161 97 53 41 36 12 12 44 8 17 64 0 64

125 76 55 44 38 11 11 21 0 10 49 0 49

147 61 52 40 36 12 11 9 0 1 85 19 67

3 0

5 0

2 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

298

OMAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 7.1 0.0 75.3

.. 7.3 5.5 0.0 75.5

.. 15.2 9.6 0.0 61.1

.. 5.2 1.0 0.0 76.7

0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 76.2

0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 71.3

0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 61.7

0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 57.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 698 -233 108 -275 -543 650 -425 116 -489 -643 50 39 -13 -38 -27 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-1,313 -1,323 32

-745 -780 27

-91 -100 9

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.1 10.5 4.0 3.2

7.5 14.7 4.0 13.1

4.6 16.8 3.3 31.7

5.4 10.6 2.4 20.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 6.1 1.5 24.6

4.3 20.3 4.0 36.7

0.0 17.0 5.0 62.8

4.9 13.9 4.4 25.2

1.9 16.7 4.5 45.1

4.6 16.8 3.3 31.7

4.3 15.4 3.4 31.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 6.7 1.8 27.0

4.3 20.3 4.0 36.7

0.0 17.0 5.0 62.8

9.6 8.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 2.4 10.1 14.5 0.0 4.2 0.0 3.3 4.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 10.2 0.0 6.7 0.0 12.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

678 120

462 113

415 108

375 98

859 76

235 55

226 44

163 33

278 58

276 66

277 69

266 65

224 57

173 49

165 41

161 33

195 29

192 40

193 45

192 43

146 38

94 33

92 28

89 23

83 29

84 26

84 24

74 22

78 19

79 16

73 13

72 10

400 62

185 47

139 39

109 33

635 19

62 6

62 3

2 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public, private nonguaranteed and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

299

PAKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

13,465 10,700 10,674 26 1,455 1,310 0 0 0

20,663 16,643 16,506 138 835 3,185 1 1 0

30,229 25,381 23,788 1,593 1,613 3,235 0 0 0

32,783 29,735 27,175 2,560 1,529 1,519 0 0 0

31,707 28,586 26,488 2,098 1,807 1,314 0 0 0

33,675 30,103 28,105 1,998 2,032 1,540 0 0 0

35,885 32,532 30,913 1,619 2,108 1,245 0 0 0

35,687 32,566 31,029 1,537 1,876 1,245 0 0 0

0 0 0

15 15 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

1,003 1,003 0 910 729 180 471 378 526 307 111 108 -54 1,435 1,036 292 108

1,746 1,746 0 1,071 905 166 1,089 414 831 515 52 264 258 1,902 1,420 218 264

3,288 3,086 202 2,013 1,837 176 2,572 1,297 1,203 955 45 202 1,369 3,216 2,792 221 202

1,838 1,644 195 1,869 1,586 282 -342 -311 985 858 49 78 -1,327 2,854 2,444 332 78

2,685 2,175 510 2,131 1,957 174 349 -205 865 755 52 57 -515 2,996 2,712 226 57

2,353 2,011 343 2,012 1,745 268 567 226 838 743 40 55 -271 2,850 2,488 307 55

1,435 948 488 2,194 1,599 595 -1,053 -295 848 788 25 35 -1,901 3,041 2,387 619 35

2,688 2,432 256 3,535 2,965 570 -847 0 750 697 21 32 -1,597 4,285 3,662 591 32

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

662 274 131 0 257 171

1,410 841 245 0 324 318

2,170 1,249 723 10 188 181

525 57 308 35 124 82

1,348 219 383 -130 876 92

1,452 266 823 79 284 209

1,177 -651 534 -26 1,320 144

923 -533 1,118 50 289 136

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

294 307 62

842 515 53

914 955 301

-762 858 429

122 755 470

133 743 576

-504 788 893

-1,260 697 1,487

69,336 12,164 1,461 14,260 4,218 1,878

69,166 15,943 3,554 15,083 8,796 3,854

80,140 18,980 3,964 17,676 11,816 3,573

93,908 20,242 3,945 24,639 10,718 -808

260.7 45.7 24.6 7.1 1.2 13.3 3.5 4.1 62.0 41.2

211.2 48.7 17.9 5.3 1.2 26.1 7.0 4.6 64.5 44.1

189.1 44.8 16.0 4.5 1.1 32.9 8.0 3.5 66.5 45.0

176.3 38.0 21.2 3.7 0.8 30.0 5.2 3.5 70.6 45.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

33,672 6,158 2,537 7,785 1,429 -1,067

41,735 8,937 2,006 11,386 1,046 -1,661

218.6 40.0 23.3 8.5 1.6 10.6 2.2 9.7 64.5 21.8

231.2 49.5 21.3 9.3 2.0 5.1 1.1 15.4 58.5 33.4

61,092 12,112 1,712 16,311 2,528 -3,349

71,389 11,312 1,075 14,484 2,087 -85

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

249.6 49.5 26.5 9.9 2.0 8.4 1.9 10.7 53.9 40.3

300

289.8 45.9 25.2 8.7 1.4 6.4 1.7 4.6 55.0 41.1

PAKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

10,700 10,674 9,864 2,940 2,055 6,924 6,635 810 0 421 26 0 26

16,643 16,506 15,791 6,894 3,887 8,897 8,207 714 0 401 138 0 138

25,381 23,788 22,691 12,179 6,894 10,512 9,392 1,097 150 371 1,593 45 1,548

29,735 27,175 25,124 13,481 8,196 11,643 9,844 2,051 623 1,099 2,560 45 2,515

28,586 26,488 25,175 13,075 8,202 12,101 11,442 1,312 623 601 2,098 0 2,098

30,103 28,105 27,228 14,857 9,929 12,371 11,799 876 445 357 1,998 0 1,998

32,532 30,913 30,240 16,162 10,816 14,078 13,048 673 325 213 1,619 0 1,619

32,566 31,029 30,122 16,324 12,046 13,799 13,148 907 608 144 1,537 0 1,537

434 1,391 10,454 245

1,816 2,106 16,374 269

3,082 3,321 23,694 1,687

3,093 3,828 26,997 2,738

2,796 4,245 26,390 2,196

2,749 5,394 28,024 2,079

2,695 5,869 30,857 1,675

2,460 6,818 30,993 1,573

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,003 990 826 391 269 435 309 164 0 114 13 0 13

1,746 1,708 1,629 978 360 651 325 78 0 8 38 0 38

3,086 2,331 2,199 1,167 677 1,032 804 132 0 87 755 0 755

1,644 1,527 1,522 1,043 382 479 255 4 0 0 117 0 117

2,175 2,002 1,669 1,629 1,118 40 16 333 0 331 173 0 173

2,011 1,790 1,684 1,619 1,174 64 63 106 0 96 221 0 221

948 868 785 678 259 106 97 83 0 0 80 0 80

2,432 2,052 1,508 1,378 992 131 123 544 500 0 380 0 380

59 109

356 135

271 255

159 141

70 599

33 928

28 118

1 781

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

729 715 383 81 15 302 248 332 0 266 14 0 14

905 866 725 307 43 418 359 141 0 88 39 0 39

1,837 1,497 1,267 559 81 708 462 230 0 138 340 0 340

1,586 1,142 1,104 828 165 276 13 37 0 30 445 0 445

1,957 1,451 922 809 174 113 6 529 0 451 506 45 461

1,745 1,444 903 840 179 63 0 541 178 340 301 0 301

1,599 1,220 931 820 208 111 4 288 120 147 379 0 379

2,965 2,503 2,193 1,792 248 401 1 310 217 69 462 0 462

30 9

73 19

219 35

227 64

232 68

242 76

268 88

304 105

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

307 304 238 81 17 157 133 66 0 43 3 0 3

515 505 450 247 30 204 174 54 0 38 11 0 11

955 825 759 445 59 313 259 66 9 32 130 2 128

858 641 527 383 73 144 57 114 61 38 217 2 215

755 579 468 361 70 107 29 110 62 33 177 1 176

743 638 555 332 82 223 184 83 58 18 105 0 105

788 698 650 317 89 334 285 48 40 6 90 0 90

697 622 588 246 97 342 273 34 27 5 75 0 75

31 12

126 15

217 24

182 29

159 28

125 35

105 42

87 47

301

PAKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 9.4 2.9 0.2 50.7

.. 13.6 1.5 0.3 35.7

.. 15.2 0.8 0.3 31.2

.. 16.9 0.7 0.3 41.5

12.6 13.7 0.5 0.2 41.5

10.8 17.6 0.5 0.1 41.7

12.1 18.2 0.4 0.3 41.1

13.0 18.7 0.4 0.3 38.7

0 0 0 918 13,268 0 0 0 29 11,395 0 0 0 653 1,325 0 0 0 575 1,187 0 0 0 78 138 0 0 0 236 129 0 0 0 200 109 0 0 0 37 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 1,237 2,315 2,846 -1,108 -1,076 471 1,089 2,572 -342 349 683 1,085 108 -1,669 -1,852 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

157 0 0 0 0 146 145 0 0 0 300 0

10 0 1 1 0 7 7 0 7 0 703 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 482 0

1,968 567 2,217

2,210 -1,053 3,012

-198 -847 1,085

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.7 26.8 6.5 34.1

5.3 22.5 6.1 34.6

5.2 17.4 5.0 30.5

6.3 12.5 3.0 19.9

2.8 19.9 5.4 46.7

1.9 23.7 6.5 56.9

1.7 19.9 4.8 52.7

2.2 22.7 6.8 54.4

5.5 28.0 6.8 36.1

5.2 22.9 6.1 35.5

5.0 18.7 5.5 32.8

6.2 12.8 3.1 20.7

1.9 24.3 6.8 57.7

1.9 23.7 6.5 56.9

1.7 19.7 4.7 52.4

1.8 26.0 7.2 60.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 30.0 9.0 66.5

4.4 5.0 5.0 21.3

8.6 8.8 7.0 8.0 5.2 10.6 11.3 4.4 5.3 7.1 2.4 4.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 5.4 5.1 8.1 4.5 14.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,797 758

1,498 733

1,515 723

1,402 679

1,758 632

1,220 584

1,216 552

1,201 520

1,156 650

1,099 648

1,196 654

1,204 626

1,119 599

1,106 571

1,134 542

1,151 514

246 361

264 355

302 369

295 360

221 352

233 345

276 337

281 328

909 289

835 293

894 286

909 266

897 247

873 226

859 205

870 187

641 108

399 85

320 68

198 52

639 34

113 14

81 10

50 5

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

302

PANAMA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,742 3,307 3,307 0 311 1,124 1 1 0

6,493 3,842 3,842 0 272 2,378 978 266 713

6,101 3,784 3,784 0 111 2,207 1,608 225 1,383

7,042 6,488 5,708 780 90 464 1 0 1

8,243 7,725 6,330 1,395 54 464 1 0 1

8,296 7,875 6,406 1,469 50 371 0 0 0

8,772 8,288 6,565 1,723 45 439 0 0 0

9,469 9,047 7,305 1,742 36 386 0 0 0

4 1 3

1,982 552 1,431

1,997 204 1,793

2 0 2

2 0 2

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

203 167 36 133 104 29 281 211 336 303 24 10 -55 469 407 52 10

6 6 0 121 51 70 -115 0 223 90 16 117 -338 345 141 87 117

112 99 13 172 133 39 -925 -866 144 101 7 36 -1,069 316 234 46 36

725 725 0 463 411 52 282 20 455 418 7 30 -173 918 830 58 30

1,913 1,913 0 661 628 33 1,252 0 514 481 4 30 738 1,176 1,109 37 30

1,325 1,325 0 1,154 1,146 8 79 -93 522 510 2 11 -443 1,676 1,655 10 11

701 701 0 407 397 9 363 69 548 534 1 13 -185 955 931 10 13

1,556 1,556 0 800 790 10 702 -54 601 589 1 10 101 1,401 1,380 11 10

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

156 63 67 0 26 15

216 -44 136 -1 126 -16

204 -34 223 0 15 43

948 314 624 0 10 23

1,762 1,285 467 0 10 28

288 180 99 0 9 31

1,094 304 771 0 19 37

1,788 765 1,012 0 11 46

-527 303 381

-70 90 196

-293 101 396

-33 418 562

713 481 569

-416 510 194

-90 534 650

246 589 953

11,205 9,442 73 9,766 1,092 -170

12,022 8,630 85 8,885 1,183 -96

12,043 8,450 85 9,105 1,011 -503

12,692 9,773 127 11,001 631 -1,127

87.3 73.6 12.5 5.4 4.6 13.2 1.3 5.6 3.9 12.7

96.1 69.0 19.4 6.1 4.3 14.3 1.6 4.5 4.1 13.6

103.8 72.8 11.3 6.5 4.6 11.5 1.3 5.0 3.9 13.5

96.9 74.6 14.3 6.1 4.7 6.7 0.7 4.1 3.9 12.4

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

5,206 6,423 99 6,468 98 75

5,051 5,595 110 5,588 344 209

73.8 91.1 7.3 5.2 6.5 2.1 0.2 23.7 7.4 15.7

116.0 128.5 6.2 4.0 4.4 5.3 0.7 36.6 5.9 15.5

7,542 9,271 112 9,878 781 -471

11,007 9,425 16 10,258 723 -673

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

65.8 80.9 3.4 1.6 1.9 12.8 0.9 36.2 6.9 10.0

303

74.7 64.0 9.7 4.8 4.1 10.3 0.8 6.6 5.1 14.6

PANAMA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3,307 3,307 1,173 744 172 430 179 2,133 269 1,763 0 0 0

3,842 3,842 1,489 1,006 188 483 194 2,353 260 1,970 0 0 0

3,784 3,784 1,262 612 134 650 285 2,522 3 2,467 0 0 0

6,488 5,708 1,293 1,027 113 266 245 4,415 4,141 262 780 266 514

7,725 6,330 1,262 1,050 111 212 209 5,067 4,882 176 1,395 520 875

7,875 6,406 1,357 1,128 109 229 228 5,049 4,920 121 1,469 427 1,042

8,288 6,565 1,420 1,183 105 237 237 5,145 5,034 105 1,723 510 1,213

9,047 7,305 1,406 1,177 142 229 225 5,899 5,803 92 1,742 503 1,238

310 0 3,307 0

462 0 3,842 0

175 0 3,784 0

283 0 5,708 780

282 0 6,330 1,395

287 0 6,406 1,469

270 0 6,565 1,723

245 0 7,305 1,742

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

167 167 104 90 25 15 8 63 20 40 0 0 0

6 6 6 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

99 99 95 93 5 2 0 5 0 5 0 0 0

725 487 99 88 7 11 11 388 370 17 238 0 238

1,913 1,235 106 97 8 8 8 1,129 1,123 6 679 267 412

1,325 1,079 141 117 12 23 23 938 930 8 247 0 247

701 426 139 128 10 11 11 287 275 12 275 0 275

1,556 1,310 121 104 54 17 12 1,189 1,176 13 246 0 246

26 0

0 0

3 0

22 0

26 0

30 0

16 0

12 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

104 104 47 33 7 14 3 57 40 3 0 0 0

51 51 45 43 0 2 0 6 2 1 0 0 0

133 133 116 84 10 32 10 17 0 3 0 0 0

411 386 109 57 9 52 33 277 120 156 25 0 25

628 558 108 58 10 49 32 450 356 92 70 20 50

1,146 951 84 69 14 15 13 867 802 63 195 115 80

397 293 121 107 17 14 13 172 143 28 104 0 104

790 570 135 123 17 12 12 435 407 26 221 0 221

21 0

41 0

43 0

24 0

26 0

27 0

35 0

37 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

303 303 69 47 4 22 4 234 26 199 0 0 0

90 90 87 85 8 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0

101 101 59 39 3 20 11 42 0 36 0 0 0

418 366 79 69 4 10 8 287 264 21 53 24 29

481 421 81 72 4 9 7 339 325 14 61 31 30

510 437 68 62 3 6 5 369 361 8 73 38 35

534 470 68 62 3 6 6 402 396 6 64 32 32

589 497 61 55 3 6 6 436 432 4 92 34 58

23 0

27 0

15 0

21 0

20 0

18 0

15 0

13 0

304

PANAMA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.0 0.0 0.0 65.3

.. 9.8 0.7 0.1 62.2

.. 10.4 0.4 0.1 70.8

.. 1.8 0.1 0.0 91.8

0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 93.6

0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 94.1

0.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 94.3

0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 95.3

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

225 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 221 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 221 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 154 361 0 0 0 120 337 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 394 274 -800 201 1,201 281 -115 -925 282 1,252 125 74 -52 -42 -29 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 531 445

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 11 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0

53 79 -16

477 363 -15

696 702 -43

8.6 14.4 4.6 8.9

5.0 8.3 4.8 22.6

5.0 17.8 3.8 28.5

9.3 19.9 15.8 1.4

8.6 11.1 9.3 7.5

5.1 23.0 4.3 32.3

7.9 26.7 22.9 15.1

7.8 17.4 16.6 14.6

7.5 19.3 5.1 17.6

5.0 8.3 4.8 22.6

6.9 21.2 4.6 20.0

5.8 22.8 4.6 29.2

5.2 19.7 4.8 28.8

5.1 24.4 4.5 33.7

5.7 19.4 4.8 27.1

3.5 18.9 4.9 41.9

9.6 0.0 3.3 10.4 9.1 4.4 10.0 0.0 14.7 19.0 9.9 6.7 4.2 0.0 3.1 19.0 9.9 1.0 1.1 0.0 36.4 -6.6 4.5 16.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

8.7 29.2 29.1 11.0

8.0 17.3 17.3 13.1

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

532 653

860 631

368 607

979 571

288 532

266 521

995 474

880 404

176 75

162 71

154 67

151 62

145 56

140 49

135 42

125 36

18 6

14 6

15 6

16 6

15 5

15 5

15 4

14 4

158 68

149 65

139 61

136 56

130 51

125 44

120 38

111 32

357 579

698 560

214 540

827 509

142 477

126 472

860 431

755 368

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Data on long-term private nonguaranteed debt are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS debt data on international bank lending. Data for 1996–2002 include debt buybacks.

305

PAPUA NEW GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,112 1,937 1,069 868 29 146 0 0 0

2,594 2,461 1,523 938 61 72 0 0 0

2,506 2,378 1,668 711 50 78 0 0 0

2,592 2,504 1,490 1,014 39 49 0 0 0

2,505 2,329 1,397 932 108 68 0 0 0

2,477 2,297 1,479 818 116 64 0 0 0

2,464 2,231 1,505 727 122 111 0 0 0

2,149 1,976 1,445 531 64 109 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

419 419 0 199 191 8 221 1 141 132 1 8 80 340 322 9 8

681 623 58 391 388 3 197 -93 162 156 0 6 35 553 544 3 6

240 189 51 509 493 16 -291 -21 117 111 1 5 -408 626 604 17 5

293 254 38 216 196 19 29 -48 90 85 1 4 -61 306 282 20 4

266 194 72 191 190 1 94 19 78 73 3 2 15 270 264 4 2

59 59 0 208 208 0 -154 -5 69 65 3 1 -223 277 273 3 1

40 40 0 222 217 5 -135 47 72 69 2 1 -207 294 286 7 1

35 35 0 390 330 60 -357 -2 84 78 3 3 -441 474 408 63 3

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

539 229 83 0 227 21

694 235 155 0 304 44

420 -304 455 0 269 89

252 58 96 0 98 144

137 4 63 0 70 133

-32 -149 18 0 99 136

29 -177 101 0 105 149

-160 -296 25 0 110 187

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

286 132 121

380 156 158

-99 111 409

-31 85 198

-142 73 206

-320 65 0

-283 69 0

-456 78 0

3,288 2,369 7 2,013 304 351

2,805 2,118 6 1,845 440 286

2,620 1,846 6 1,784 343 ..

2,948 2,473 6 2,291 520 ..

3,499 .. 6 .. 660 ..

109.4 78.8 12.9 3.8 2.7 11.7 1.8 1.9 35.4 33.3

118.3 89.3 12.7 3.7 2.8 17.6 2.9 2.7 32.1 34.0

134.2 94.6 15.0 3.7 2.6 13.9 2.3 2.6 34.9 36.1

99.6 83.6 11.9 2.9 2.4 21.1 2.7 4.5 36.2 36.4

.. 61.4 .. .. 2.4 30.7 .. 5.1 41.8 41.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,335 1,046 6 1,325 463 -122

3,098 1,487 5 1,719 427 -76

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

202.0 90.5 32.5 13.5 6.0 21.9 4.2 6.9 15.7 16.9

174.4 83.7 37.2 10.9 5.2 16.5 3.0 2.8 21.6 29.5

4,438 3,014 16 2,415 267 674

4. DEBT INDICATORS 83.1 56.5 20.8 3.9 2.6 10.6 1.3 3.1 32.1 37.4

306

PAPUA NEW GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,937 1,069 479 358 230 122 100 590 80 469 868 0 868

2,461 1,523 1,074 764 362 310 199 449 37 307 938 0 938

2,378 1,668 1,441 938 454 503 351 227 0 157 711 0 711

2,504 1,490 1,430 863 454 567 465 60 0 54 1,014 0 1,014

2,329 1,397 1,332 852 401 481 402 65 0 63 932 0 932

2,297 1,479 1,392 895 444 497 422 87 0 87 818 0 818

2,231 1,505 1,411 898 443 513 450 94 0 94 727 0 727

1,976 1,445 1,367 901 460 466 438 78 0 78 531 0 531

75 109 1,040 897

235 115 1,501 960

299 108 1,667 711

244 92 1,476 1,027

275 88 1,397 932

272 87 1,479 818

269 86 1,505 727

260 84 1,445 531

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

419 111 51 35 12 16 15 60 21 31 308 0 308

623 280 234 180 77 54 28 45 0 20 343 0 343

189 135 122 55 19 67 15 13 0 13 54 0 54

254 219 206 67 12 139 56 13 0 13 35 0 35

194 184 154 111 3 43 42 30 0 30 10 0 10

59 59 33 26 7 7 4 27 0 27 0 0 0

40 40 25 21 6 4 3 15 0 15 0 0 0

35 35 30 29 11 1 1 5 0 5 0 0 0

13 4

64 0

34 0

43 0

66 0

9 0

7 0

9 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

191 59 8 6 1 2 1 51 2 45 131 0 131

388 184 48 35 15 13 2 136 0 129 204 0 204

493 204 82 47 7 35 14 122 32 63 289 0 289

196 116 97 54 10 44 33 19 0 10 80 0 80

190 98 90 51 10 39 36 9 0 7 92 0 92

208 94 86 50 12 36 22 8 0 7 114 0 114

217 126 103 49 13 54 23 23 0 23 91 0 91

330 134 111 50 14 62 26 23 0 23 196 0 196

4 0

14 1

27 2

29 3

25 3

24 3

22 4

22 4

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

132 66 14 10 2 5 2 52 7 43 66 0 66

156 86 40 27 3 13 5 46 3 36 70 0 70

111 82 63 44 5 19 12 19 2 9 29 0 29

85 55 50 32 5 18 16 5 0 3 31 0 31

73 48 46 28 4 18 12 3 0 3 25 0 25

65 47 44 26 4 18 12 4 0 4 17 0 17

69 46 42 23 4 19 12 4 0 4 23 0 23

78 42 38 21 4 17 13 3 0 3 36 0 36

5 1

14 1

22 1

15 1

13 1

11 1

9 1

8 1

307

PAPUA NEW GUINEA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 14.2 1.3 4.7 39.0

.. 20.4 2.1 1.5 27.3

.. 21.3 0.6 0.0 19.4

.. 29.3 0.8 0.0 20.8

2.8 27.0 0.0 0.0 26.4

3.2 28.6 0.0 0.0 25.4

3.6 30.7 0.0 0.1 26.0

3.8 31.4 0.0 0.1 28.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 83 278 -287 -103 -88 221 197 -291 29 94 33 77 -26 -117 -118 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-28 -154 116

-13 -135 156

-315 -357 45

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.5 12.0 4.6 8.1

6.0 16.0 4.6 22.7

5.2 10.6 4.4 23.2

6.5 16.0 4.8 20.4

3.8 16.1 4.2 35.5

1.9 24.6 6.5 58.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 30.4 7.4 68.7

7.6 17.9 6.9 16.4

5.7 17.3 4.9 24.5

5.2 10.6 4.4 23.2

6.5 17.3 5.1 21.5

4.7 18.3 4.7 33.8

1.9 24.6 6.5 58.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 30.4 7.4 68.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.9 7.2 0.0 6.2 2.1 9.3 9.5 0.0 5.3 11.4 3.5 3.2 0.0 2.5 3.1 4.3 13.4 0.0 10.9 39.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

276 65

211 58

196 52

163 46

154 40

141 35

140 30

119 25

112 40

100 40

99 39

104 36

105 33

103 30

107 27

92 23

52 13

36 12

34 11

33 10

33 9

32 8

35 7

26 6

60 27

65 28

65 28

71 26

72 24

71 22

72 19

66 17

165 25

111 18

96 13

59 9

49 7

38 5

33 3

27 2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed debt data and short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

308

PARAGUAY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,817 1,638 1,534 104 0 179 28 7 21

2,105 1,732 1,713 19 0 373 115 29 86

2,574 1,791 1,453 338 0 784 7 4 4

3,090 2,510 2,060 450 0 580 11 5 6

2,810 2,349 1,989 360 0 461 12 6 7

2,958 2,472 2,055 417 0 486 18 10 8

3,202 2,651 2,217 434 0 552 24 15 9

3,433 2,765 2,453 312 0 668 2 1 1

36 14 22

321 61 259

60 16 44

55 30 26

47 22 25

59 33 26

78 52 27

31 18 13

243 243 0 78 78 0 218 53 79 79 0 0 139 158 157 0 0

77 77 0 235 235 0 -83 75 90 77 0 13 -173 325 312 0 13

224 224 0 159 159 0 261 196 135 93 0 42 126 294 252 0 42

192 192 0 204 204 0 -185 -173 148 116 0 33 -333 353 320 0 33

125 125 0 214 214 0 -208 -120 146 128 0 18 -355 360 342 0 18

274 274 0 231 231 0 61 18 109 101 0 8 -49 341 333 0 8

250 250 0 213 213 0 98 61 110 104 0 6 -13 323 317 0 6

139 139 0 337 337 0 -59 138 164 146 0 18 -224 501 483 0 18

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

172 165 1 0 6 23

-74 -158 77 0 7 40

204 65 103 0 36 64

117 -13 104 0 26 56

15 -89 84 0 20 46

71 42 10 0 19 48

88 37 33 0 18 48

-88 -197 92 0 18 50

93 79 0

-168 77 17

49 93 62

-82 116 84

-201 128 89

-70 101 39

-74 104 58

-341 146 107

7,722 3,336 278 3,524 772 -163

6,864 2,841 264 3,134 723 -266

5,531 2,721 202 2,645 641 93

6,038 3,034 222 2,956 983 132

7,349 3,715 260 3,757 1,168 20

92.6 40.0 10.6 4.4 1.9 25.0 2.6 18.8 28.0 36.9

98.9 40.9 12.7 5.2 2.1 25.7 2.8 16.4 28.0 40.3

108.7 53.5 12.5 4.0 2.0 21.7 2.9 16.4 27.3 39.5

105.5 53.0 10.7 3.6 1.8 30.7 4.0 17.2 26.4 40.7

92.4 46.7 13.5 4.4 2.2 34.0 3.7 19.5 25.9 37.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

3,133 687 10 946 545 -252

5,381 2,631 34 2,284 675 390

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

264.5 58.0 22.9 11.5 2.5 30.0 6.9 9.9 22.9 29.6

80.0 39.1 12.4 3.4 1.7 32.1 3.5 17.7 26.3 34.8

9,126 5,210 287 5,363 1,106 -92

4. DEBT INDICATORS 49.4 28.2 5.6 2.6 1.5 43.0 2.5 30.4 32.0 30.2

309

PARAGUAY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,638 1,534 1,030 538 178 492 239 504 0 347 104 0 104

1,732 1,713 1,182 732 229 450 325 531 0 258 19 0 19

1,791 1,453 1,320 778 332 543 491 133 0 56 338 0 338

2,510 2,060 1,612 1,141 409 471 455 449 0 424 450 0 450

2,349 1,989 1,540 1,133 390 407 398 449 0 420 360 0 360

2,472 2,055 1,610 1,168 376 442 432 445 0 417 417 0 417

2,651 2,217 1,757 1,302 401 454 446 460 0 426 434 0 434

2,765 2,453 1,950 1,299 384 651 504 503 0 479 312 0 312

248 46 1,534 104

279 41 1,713 19

154 36 1,453 338

201 28 2,060 450

205 27 1,989 360

216 25 2,055 417

256 24 2,217 434

246 22 2,453 312

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

243 243 200 91 25 108 11 44 0 41 0 0 0

77 77 50 31 7 19 18 27 0 2 0 0 0

224 216 204 129 41 75 72 11 0 11 8 0 8

192 192 192 166 11 26 26 0 0 0 0 0 0

125 125 117 92 2 26 24 8 0 0 0 0 0

274 103 103 67 1 35 35 0 0 0 171 0 171

250 153 135 127 0 9 9 18 0 11 97 0 97

139 139 121 82 4 39 26 18 0 15 0 0 0

40 0

16 0

26 0

47 0

27 0

14 0

42 0

17 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

78 72 30 20 3 10 5 42 0 22 6 0 6

235 226 198 62 6 137 20 27 0 10 9 0 9

159 157 123 76 10 47 40 34 0 10 2 0 2

204 111 104 61 15 43 39 7 0 4 93 0 93

214 124 117 70 19 47 40 7 0 3 90 0 90

231 122 116 78 19 37 37 6 0 4 109 0 109

213 133 129 86 18 43 40 4 0 3 80 0 80

337 215 190 124 28 66 60 25 0 11 122 0 122

16 1

40 1

41 1

19 1

14 1

15 1

19 2

33 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

79 78 40 27 3 13 4 38 0 28 1 0 1

77 77 57 47 4 10 10 20 0 2 0 0 0

93 87 71 41 6 30 22 16 0 2 6 0 6

116 100 70 52 8 18 17 30 0 29 16 0 16

128 105 74 58 9 17 16 31 0 30 23 0 23

101 79 62 54 7 9 9 17 0 16 22 0 22

104 79 67 54 7 13 13 12 0 11 26 0 26

146 125 104 63 10 41 36 21 0 14 22 0 22

17 0

25 0

15 0

11 0

11 0

10 0

12 0

14 0

310

PARAGUAY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 6.8 1.4 0.7 47.1

.. 15.6 2.0 0.3 17.2

.. 22.7 0.3 0.1 28.8

.. 15.0 0.1 0.1 60.1

3.2 13.5 0.1 0.1 62.5

3.4 14.0 0.1 0.1 62.7

3.5 13.4 0.1 0.1 64.0

2.7 14.0 0.1 0.0 66.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 436 0 0 0 0 111 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 347 -277 469 -293 -279 218 -83 261 -185 -208 111 778 -28 -97 -70 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

147 61 82

244 98 93

231 -59 47

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.6 14.8 3.9 9.1

3.5 34.4 10.1 53.9

5.6 19.0 5.5 28.1

6.4 21.8 3.0 22.1

4.8 19.5 5.6 34.1

2.4 18.5 3.7 46.5

2.6 17.7 4.9 46.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.3 18.1 4.2 17.0

3.5 34.4 10.1 53.9

5.5 19.3 5.6 28.8

6.4 21.8 3.0 22.1

4.7 20.4 5.9 35.6

2.4 18.5 3.7 46.5

2.6 17.7 4.9 46.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.6 0.0 7.9 0.0 5.7 9.6 0.0 9.8 0.0 8.8 3.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 2.3 -3.7 0.0 7.8 0.0 16.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

317 121

296 112

299 102

273 91

261 81

250 70

229 60

208 51

183 87

190 85

208 80

203 73

198 65

194 57

182 49

169 42

61 23

62 23

63 23

58 21

68 20

64 18

58 15

58 14

122 64

128 61

145 57

145 51

130 46

130 40

123 34

111 28

134 33

106 28

91 23

69 19

63 16

56 13

47 11

39 9

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

311

PERU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

12,884 10,223 9,816 407 702 1,959 867 233 635

20,044 13,959 13,629 330 755 5,330 3,713 1,386 2,326

30,833 20,219 18,931 1,288 955 9,659 4,584 211 4,373

28,661 24,175 19,237 4,938 558 3,928 14 11 4

27,560 24,157 18,901 5,256 387 3,016 24 14 10

28,047 25,509 20,391 5,118 236 2,302 28 14 14

29,822 27,158 22,037 5,121 139 2,525 0 0 0

31,296 28,679 23,500 5,179 104 2,513 0 0 0

1,474 351 1,123

8,345 3,215 5,130

4,150 1,016 3,134

29 21 7

42 32 10

23 13 10

0 0 0

0 0 0

782 782 0 573 523 50 -62 -270 524 361 47 117 -586 1,098 884 97 117

289 289 0 229 166 63 126 66 247 91 74 82 -121 476 257 137 82

880 880 0 521 521 0 3,148 2,789 721 485 52 184 2,427 1,242 1,006 52 184

2,065 2,065 0 1,138 997 141 289 -638 1,434 1,174 33 227 -1,145 2,573 2,171 174 227

1,721 1,721 0 839 686 153 -40 -922 1,358 1,155 23 180 -1,397 2,197 1,840 176 180

3,004 3,004 0 2,160 1,987 173 126 -718 1,225 1,147 10 68 -1,099 3,385 3,134 183 68

2,243 2,243 0 1,185 1,072 112 1,309 251 1,369 1,293 4 72 -60 2,553 2,366 116 72

2,669 2,669 0 1,304 1,264 40 1,354 -12 1,428 1,354 3 70 -74 2,732 2,618 43 70

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

349 259 1 0 90 79

344 123 41 0 180 127

3,365 359 2,557 171 279 127

2,161 1,068 810 123 159 154

2,425 1,036 1,144 43 202 223

3,328 1,017 2,156 -9 164 236

2,688 1,170 1,335 1 182 291

3,355 1,405 1,816 -47 180 292

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-87 361 76

238 91 15

2,046 485 835

642 1,174 344

1,139 1,155 131

1,702 1,147 479

283 1,293 1,112

-303 1,354 2,304

52,556 9,904 753 11,337 8,980 -1,144

55,081 10,319 705 11,720 9,721 -1,063

58,647 11,968 860 13,270 10,242 -935

65,217 15,984 1,123 16,333 12,665 -11

278.3 52.4 22.2 13.7 2.6 32.6 9.5 10.9 13.3 22.8

271.8 50.9 32.8 11.9 2.2 34.7 10.0 8.2 14.1 24.3

249.2 50.9 21.3 11.4 2.3 34.3 9.3 8.5 15.4 24.1

195.8 48.0 17.1 8.9 2.2 40.5 9.3 8.0 15.2 24.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

17,655 3,965 0 3,959 2,481 102

25,509 4,402 87 6,015 1,891 -1,419

324.9 73.0 27.7 13.2 3.0 19.3 7.5 15.2 9.0 10.4

455.3 78.6 10.8 5.6 1.0 9.4 3.8 26.6 9.3 11.0

51,885 7,796 599 12,653 8,653 -4,625

51,677 9,939 718 11,746 8,676 -1,526

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

395.5 59.4 15.9 9.3 1.4 28.1 8.2 31.3 18.2 12.1

312

288.4 55.5 25.9 14.4 2.8 30.3 8.9 13.7 13.8 19.3

PERU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

10,223 9,816 4,534 1,340 155 3,194 1,000 5,283 1 3,005 407 0 407

13,959 13,629 6,594 2,199 185 4,395 1,674 7,035 1 3,159 330 0 330

20,219 18,931 15,229 3,716 142 11,513 5,485 3,702 0 3,040 1,288 60 1,228

24,175 19,237 14,406 5,532 92 8,875 3,854 4,830 3,727 110 4,938 150 4,788

24,157 18,901 14,762 6,289 83 8,473 3,595 4,139 3,727 105 5,256 150 5,106

25,509 20,391 15,583 6,826 78 8,756 3,879 4,808 4,424 98 5,118 150 4,968

27,158 22,037 16,050 7,194 315 8,856 4,285 5,987 5,630 90 5,121 150 4,971

28,679 23,500 16,396 7,745 443 8,651 4,313 7,104 6,949 81 5,179 150 5,029

723 0 9,779 444

1,188 0 13,584 376

1,729 0 18,925 1,294

2,590 0 17,966 6,209

2,625 0 17,694 6,463

2,609 0 19,253 6,256

2,789 0 20,973 6,185

2,834 0 22,517 6,163

782 782 465 209 14 257 135 317 0 75 0 0 0

289 289 187 38 10 149 112 103 0 69 0 0 0

880 725 720 631 3 89 26 5 0 0 155 0 155

2,065 1,488 1,454 813 6 640 558 35 0 34 577 0 577

1,721 1,387 1,387 1,110 6 277 173 0 0 0 334 0 334

3,004 2,931 1,008 808 4 199 169 1,923 1,923 0 74 0 74

2,243 2,188 938 697 224 241 221 1,250 1,250 0 55 0 55

2,669 2,541 1,233 1,049 143 184 184 1,308 1,308 0 128 0 128

131 0

0 0

202 0

266 0

149 0

146 0

344 0

234 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

523 384 287 67 2 220 5 97 0 15 139 0 139

166 112 81 24 3 57 5 31 0 9 54 0 54

521 481 404 201 21 203 59 77 0 28 40 0 40

997 979 834 497 13 337 99 146 0 130 17 0 17

686 670 644 297 14 347 151 26 0 5 16 0 16

1,987 1,970 738 357 11 381 190 1,232 1,204 7 17 0 17

1,072 1,020 950 444 15 506 237 71 44 7 52 0 52

1,264 1,194 1,103 531 16 572 271 90 67 9 70 0 70

40 0

0 0

86 0

93 0

114 0

163 0

163 0

189 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

361 328 172 93 3 79 7 156 0 124 33 0 33

91 66 51 27 3 24 7 15 0 8 25 0 25

485 413 395 245 7 150 75 19 0 10 71 6 65

1,174 1,105 917 383 3 534 155 188 179 5 69 11 58

1,155 1,076 900 408 3 492 141 176 160 10 78 11 67

1,147 1,077 847 373 2 474 138 231 196 10 70 11 59

1,293 1,151 814 342 6 472 140 337 305 9 143 11 131

1,354 1,192 748 301 15 448 143 444 429 8 162 11 151

49 0

0 0

118 0

189 0

186 0

141 0

115 0

92 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

313

PERU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 5.7 0.8 1.3 56.7

.. 6.3 0.9 1.5 48.0

.. 14.6 1.2 1.2 41.9

.. 13.8 0.4 0.5 73.6

5.9 12.7 0.4 0.4 75.4

6.3 13.2 0.4 0.4 75.0

6.4 14.2 0.3 0.3 74.3

9.6 13.7 0.3 0.2 72.3

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

235 0 919 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 137 0 304 0 0 64 0 284 0 0 73 0 20 0 0 35 0 516 0 0 9 0 511 0 0 26 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 727 1,479 4,323 -518 -1,101 -62 126 3,148 289 -40 662 642 267 -517 -275 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 1,204 1,204

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0

488 126 602

1,775 1,309 655

1,474 1,354 251

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.5 20.9 7.0 8.7

6.7 8.6 2.1 13.2

6.2 17.4 4.6 23.2

5.8 22.1 5.0 30.8

6.5 16.6 4.1 20.8

7.9 11.8 7.7 11.8

6.0 17.7 12.8 24.6

5.8 13.2 7.9 25.5

8.3 17.4 4.8 11.3

7.1 9.1 2.4 14.1

6.2 17.4 4.6 23.2

5.8 22.1 5.0 30.9

6.5 16.6 4.1 20.8

5.2 18.1 4.6 29.6

2.0 16.0 5.5 49.0

3.6 16.0 4.7 38.5

9.1 9.0 9.0 3.7

9.4 19.2 19.2 3.4

7.8 10.8 10.8 13.7

9.1 5.5 0.0 9.0 0.0 28.9 6.7 0.0 5.0 0.0 12.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.6 10.5 0.0 1.7 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2,650 1,624

2,579 1,528

2,276 1,466

2,845 1,406

2,144 1,242

1,997 1,133

1,988 1,031

3,474 855

1,258 820

1,322 775

1,468 720

1,522 653

1,593 580

1,503 502

1,516 427

1,569 348

655 449

699 424

767 394

803 357

854 316

753 272

786 231

828 187

603 371

624 351

701 327

719 297

739 264

750 230

730 196

742 161

1,392 804

1,257 753

808 746

1,323 753

550 662

493 631

471 605

1,905 507

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Data on long-term private nonguaranteed debt are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS debt data on international bank lending. Data include the effects of the 2002 buyback operation on the Brady Bonds.

314

PHILIPPINES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

26,637 16,312 13,712 2,600 1,168 9,157 65 1 64

30,580 25,241 24,040 1,201 912 4,427 52 4 48

39,379 33,372 28,525 4,847 728 5,279 0 0 0

58,299 50,772 33,739 17,033 2,032 5,495 0 0 0

58,253 50,301 29,210 21,090 1,952 6,000 0 0 0

59,911 52,666 32,324 20,342 1,686 5,559 0 0 0

62,476 55,099 36,033 19,066 1,197 6,179 0 0 0

60,550 54,748 35,564 19,184 756 5,046 0 0 0

765 4 762

182 13 169

0 0 0

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

1 0 1

2,066 1,744 323 778 588 190 1,209 -80 1,756 938 68 750 -547 2,534 1,526 258 750

2,516 2,516 0 1,818 1,473 345 1,123 425 1,772 1,573 99 100 -649 3,590 3,046 444 100

2,840 2,840 0 3,099 2,737 363 -696 -437 2,264 1,859 55 351 -2,960 5,363 4,595 417 351

6,060 5,747 313 4,055 4,047 8 2,551 546 3,004 2,469 94 442 -453 7,059 6,516 102 442

7,563 7,563 0 5,953 5,946 8 2,115 505 3,410 3,039 92 279 -1,295 9,363 8,985 100 279

6,747 6,747 0 7,058 6,653 405 -752 -441 3,143 2,924 54 165 -3,895 10,201 9,577 459 165

7,323 7,323 0 7,338 6,730 608 606 620 2,855 2,695 29 132 -2,250 10,193 9,426 636 132

8,277 8,277 0 7,851 7,378 473 -706 -1,133 3,719 3,494 25 200 -4,426 11,570 10,872 497 200

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,307 1,156 12 0 139 106

1,934 1,043 530 0 362 243

1,859 104 1,478 0 277 381

3,020 1,700 1,345 -183 158 226

3,169 1,617 989 383 180 207

2,468 94 1,792 404 178 195

1,574 593 347 460 174 252

1,941 899 469 418 155 237

224 938 144

51 1,573 311

-515 1,859 515

372 2,469 179

-488 3,039 618

-1,365 2,924 909

-2,145 2,695 1,024

-2,547 3,494 994

75,566 41,667 6,164 40,667 15,683 1,323

81,842 45,570 7,381 41,498 16,321 4,383

83,185 50,180 10,767 49,387 17,084 1,396

90,656 55,339 11,634 53,894 16,234 2,080

139.8 77.1 22.5 8.2 4.5 26.9 4.6 10.3 19.0 11.5

131.5 73.2 22.4 6.9 3.8 27.2 4.7 9.3 20.7 11.6

124.5 75.1 20.3 5.7 3.4 27.3 4.2 9.9 22.5 11.7

109.4 66.8 20.9 6.7 4.1 26.8 3.6 8.3 23.6 11.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

29,635 8,028 806 8,331 1,098 -36

44,073 13,290 1,465 16,437 2,036 -2,695

331.8 89.9 31.6 21.9 5.9 4.1 1.6 34.4 7.5 13.1

230.1 69.4 27.0 13.3 4.0 6.7 1.5 14.5 20.0 20.5

76,166 33,294 5,360 35,722 7,781 -1,980

79,129 49,196 6,212 43,250 15,074 6,258

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

118.3 51.7 16.1 6.8 3.0 19.8 2.6 13.4 28.4 21.6

315

118.5 73.7 14.3 6.1 3.8 25.9 4.2 9.4 21.5 12.4

PHILIPPINES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

16,312 13,712 6,870 3,489 149 3,381 1,852 6,842 854 4,540 2,600 0 2,600

25,241 24,040 15,301 6,273 457 9,029 5,649 8,739 825 6,660 1,201 0 1,201

33,372 28,525 22,626 8,490 987 14,137 10,207 5,899 4,666 416 4,847 1,925 2,922

50,772 33,739 19,885 7,207 1,074 12,678 11,453 13,855 10,466 2,482 17,033 2,856 14,177

50,301 29,210 17,773 6,705 1,020 11,068 10,068 11,437 9,519 1,074 21,090 4,328 16,762

52,666 32,324 19,175 6,966 1,102 12,208 11,270 13,149 10,735 1,447 20,342 3,920 16,422

55,099 36,033 21,004 7,302 1,222 13,703 12,825 15,029 12,578 1,319 19,066 4,154 14,912

54,748 35,564 20,819 7,069 1,251 13,750 13,008 14,745 11,969 1,607 19,184 3,465 15,720

2,420 84 13,710 2,601

3,943 101 23,667 1,573

5,002 183 28,369 5,003

3,627 207 33,669 17,103

3,250 204 29,145 21,155

3,325 208 32,253 20,413

3,445 215 35,957 19,142

3,317 214 35,491 19,257

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,744 1,459 696 391 18 305 184 763 0 412 285 0 285

2,516 2,224 1,373 854 121 519 462 852 575 167 291 0 291

2,840 1,816 1,413 621 63 792 733 403 278 102 1,024 864 161

5,747 5,228 1,528 386 43 1,142 1,079 3,701 2,630 997 519 5 514

7,563 3,726 1,009 460 55 548 533 2,717 1,643 994 3,837 587 3,250

6,747 4,613 1,387 405 20 982 965 3,226 2,811 331 2,134 698 1,436

7,323 5,133 1,634 479 39 1,155 1,112 3,499 2,479 885 2,191 585 1,606

8,277 6,583 1,030 246 41 785 757 5,552 4,405 1,046 1,695 283 1,411

263 13

506 0

393 10

152 10

114 6

178 0

201 0

145 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

588 437 337 143 3 194 4 100 70 15 151 0 151

1,473 1,411 439 388 6 51 21 972 180 743 62 0 62

2,737 2,587 2,204 651 6 1,553 678 383 32 76 150 0 150

4,047 2,515 1,572 562 16 1,009 668 943 395 474 1,533 445 1,088

5,946 3,512 1,295 526 22 769 610 2,217 741 1,425 2,433 605 1,829

6,653 3,488 1,440 572 26 868 706 2,047 1,902 80 3,165 999 2,166

6,730 3,771 1,614 594 30 1,019 825 2,158 1,105 980 2,959 320 2,639

7,378 4,738 1,703 607 37 1,096 906 3,036 2,187 749 2,640 679 1,961

110 0

301 1

413 2

349 3

308 4

322 5

338 6

372 7

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

938 799 325 250 2 75 7 474 74 370 139 0 139

1,573 1,486 749 444 4 305 125 737 31 671 87 0 87

1,859 1,707 1,320 604 10 716 406 387 287 34 152 82 70

2,469 1,882 841 414 11 427 347 1,041 880 130 586 479 108

3,039 1,959 729 362 10 367 304 1,230 1,013 185 1,080 397 684

2,924 2,037 692 330 10 363 299 1,345 1,169 147 887 323 565

2,695 1,865 643 292 11 351 301 1,222 1,159 39 830 318 512

3,494 2,200 616 257 11 360 326 1,584 1,500 54 1,294 326 968

175 1

296 1

376 1

223 2

183 2

158 2

140 2

122 2

316

PHILIPPINES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 22.7 0.2 0.7 48.9

.. 31.0 1.0 0.5 36.2

.. 39.2 0.2 0.3 27.3

.. 38.2 0.1 0.1 42.2

4.4 38.7 0.1 0.1 40.6

4.6 40.0 0.1 0.1 40.7

5.7 39.7 0.1 0.2 41.4

5.9 40.7 0.1 0.3 40.9

785 1,068 0 0 0 230 0 0 0 0 284 848 0 0 0 109 172 0 0 0 176 676 0 0 0 270 186 0 0 0 180 107 0 0 0 90 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,803 0 0 0 0 721 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,281 1,927 -878 -17 -46 1,209 1,123 -696 2,551 2,115 1,170 1,542 -250 -2,207 -2,237 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,658 -752 1,948

2,565 606 2,454

-1,925 -706 767

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.5 10.7 2.8 7.7

6.2 21.9 7.4 28.2

4.8 24.1 8.2 39.7

6.8 16.4 9.8 19.6

5.2 10.4 4.9 25.2

6.3 12.9 9.1 23.6

5.7 9.2 6.9 17.5

6.7 10.0 8.0 13.9

7.4 14.9 4.2 16.2

5.1 24.4 7.3 36.8

4.3 26.7 7.8 43.6

3.3 28.1 7.3 51.4

1.8 26.2 7.6 59.9

1.7 29.2 8.8 65.0

1.8 24.0 7.3 60.0

2.8 21.9 6.6 50.7

9.0 9.2 7.1 8.3 6.5 7.3 8.9 15.1 10.9 11.4 4.7 9.4 2.2 7.6 10.2 10.8 3.9 9.2 4.1 4.1 19.0 6.2 12.7 14.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

6.0 8.3 6.9 14.8

7.2 8.5 8.2 9.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

5,492 2,715

5,591 2,557

5,255 2,195

4,938 1,922

4,909 1,739

4,006 1,531

4,140 1,318

2,695 1,146

2,079 700

2,111 662

1,965 610

1,877 560

1,888 505

1,682 446

1,617 394

1,496 344

1,272 397

1,319 387

1,228 366

1,133 344

1,111 319

1,085 293

1,089 267

1,010 240

807 303

792 275

738 244

745 215

777 186

597 153

528 127

486 105

3,413 2,015

3,480 1,895

3,290 1,584

3,061 1,362

3,022 1,234

2,324 1,085

2,524 924

1,199 802

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Total external debt is based on loan-level, public debt data provided by the Central Bank of the Philippines and includes the following monitored aggregate private-sector debt: unregistered debt, intercompany debt and capital leases.

317

POLAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

49,364 39,261 39,261 0 509 9,595 8,315 6,568 1,747

44,263 42,085 41,073 1,012 0 2,178 136 136 0

65,843 56,175 30,784 25,390 0 9,668 118 0 118

67,376 56,309 25,709 30,599 0 11,067 0 0 0

78,507 64,603 29,374 35,229 0 13,904 0 0 0

95,463 75,963 34,964 40,999 0 19,500 0 0 0

99,190 82,343 36,595 45,748 0 16,847 0 0 0

.. .. ..

5,670 4,284 1,386

624 619 5

3 0 3

3 0 3

2 0 2

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,025 540 485 635 635 0 423 33 332 203 23 105 91 966 838 23 105

1,279 1,279 0 2,279 885 1,394 335 1,335 1,868 1,719 47 102 -1,532 4,147 2,604 1,440 102

10,174 10,174 0 7,674 7,674 0 835 -1,665 2,559 2,223 0 336 -1,724 10,233 9,898 0 336

13,607 13,607 0 12,609 12,609 0 2,516 1,517 2,773 2,453 0 320 -258 15,382 15,061 0 320

11,685 11,685 0 10,978 10,978 0 1,155 448 2,511 2,263 0 247 -1,356 13,489 13,242 0 247

18,675 18,675 0 16,542 16,542 0 6,958 4,825 2,608 2,293 0 315 4,350 19,150 18,835 0 315

31,787 31,787 0 31,341 31,341 0 -2,207 -2,653 3,210 2,865 0 345 -5,417 34,551 34,206 0 345

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

20 -95 89 0 26 0

7,679 394 3,659 219 3,408 334

12,964 2,500 9,343 447 674 110

7,130 999 5,714 -307 724 76

5,111 707 4,131 -545 819 76

6,520 2,133 4,123 -837 1,100 110

13,853 446 12,613 1,913 1,424 121

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

-202 203 20

4,913 1,719 1,048

10,041 2,223 700

3,963 2,453 714

2,078 2,263 770

2,134 2,293 2,093

1,446 2,865 9,542

184,415 55,843 1,995 62,305 26,563 -5,375

189,590 60,452 1,989 67,014 29,784 -5,009

206,224 76,577 2,655 83,124 33,959 -4,599

237,727 99,786 2,710 113,440 36,773 -10,357

120.7 36.5 27.5 5.0 1.5 39.4 5.1 16.4 9.2 3.3

129.9 41.4 22.3 4.2 1.3 37.9 5.3 17.7 8.4 3.0

124.7 46.3 25.0 3.4 1.3 35.6 4.9 20.4 7.1 2.6

99.4 41.7 34.6 3.2 1.4 37.1 3.9 17.0 6.4 1.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

55,620 19,640 0 19,084 4,674 3,067

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

251.3 88.8 4.9 1.7 0.6 9.5 2.9 19.4 7.7 1.1

133,942 37,501 724 36,909 14,957 854

165,074 50,084 1,726 60,911 27,469 -9,981

4. DEBT INDICATORS 118.0 33.0 11.1 5.0 1.4 33.8 4.9 4.9 25.1 4.7

318

131.5 39.9 20.4 5.1 1.6 41.7 5.4 14.7 10.3 3.4

POLAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

39,261 39,261 27,919 524 0 27,395 3,822 11,342 1 9,759 0 0 0

42,085 41,073 32,232 2,067 0 30,165 11,097 8,841 8,110 556 1,012 0 1,012

56,175 30,784 23,655 2,229 0 21,426 6,786 7,129 6,660 456 25,390 3,462 21,928

56,309 25,709 17,810 2,211 0 15,599 6,183 7,899 7,738 155 30,599 3,784 26,815

64,603 29,374 19,747 2,385 0 17,362 6,582 9,627 9,611 13 35,229 3,740 31,489

75,963 34,964 20,368 2,453 0 17,915 6,734 14,596 14,191 403 40,999 3,993 37,006

82,343 36,595 18,586 1,912 0 16,673 6,331 18,009 17,605 402 45,748 1,954 43,793

.. .. .. ..

55 0 39,259 2

2,067 0 41,071 1,015

2,229 0 30,783 25,392

2,211 0 25,709 30,600

2,385 0 29,374 35,229

2,453 0 34,964 40,999

1,912 0 36,595 45,748

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

540 540 70 56 0 14 10 470 0 300 0 0 0

1,279 856 248 210 0 38 7 608 250 353 423 0 423

10,174 906 350 349 0 0 0 557 554 2 9,268 809 8,459

13,607 1,940 299 298 0 0 0 1,642 1,596 46 11,667 425 11,242

11,685 2,881 173 172 0 0 0 2,709 2,709 0 8,803 0 8,803

18,675 5,442 268 143 0 125 0 5,174 5,174 0 13,234 226 13,008

31,787 4,164 522 399 0 123 0 3,642 3,642 0 27,623 365 27,258

.. ..

54 0

210 0

349 0

298 0

172 0

143 0

399 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

635 635 147 46 0 101 43 488 0 400 0 0 0

885 611 332 158 0 173 44 279 0 192 275 0 275

7,674 2,278 805 199 0 606 205 1,473 1,224 235 5,396 0 5,396

12,609 5,193 4,428 205 0 4,223 262 765 430 328 7,415 0 7,415

10,978 2,750 1,240 206 0 1,034 348 1,510 1,352 154 8,228 50 8,178

16,542 3,784 1,966 352 0 1,614 498 1,818 1,808 9 12,758 0 12,758

31,341 3,650 3,346 1,076 0 2,271 713 304 302 1 27,691 335 27,357

.. ..

0 0

19 0

199 0

205 0

206 0

352 0

1,076 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

203 203 113 31 0 82 56 90 0 74 0 0 0

1,719 1,663 1,216 148 0 1,068 478 447 386 47 56 0 56

2,223 1,138 653 122 0 532 296 484 449 34 1,086 193 892

2,453 1,043 622 118 0 504 279 421 401 20 1,410 265 1,145

2,263 953 484 106 0 378 276 469 464 4 1,311 283 1,027

2,293 1,077 465 95 0 370 288 612 611 1 1,216 563 652

2,865 1,096 463 91 0 372 289 633 626 8 1,768 116 1,652

.. ..

1 0

133 0

122 0

118 0

106 0

95 0

91 0

319

POLAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.9 3.8 9.2 32.2

.. 3.6 2.5 0.0 45.9

.. 4.5 3.0 0.0 47.7

41.0 4.5 3.4 0.0 41.7

46.4 4.1 5.3 0.0 36.2

55.8 4.2 4.8 0.0 28.3

60.2 5.7 4.7 0.7 25.0

3,559 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,366 0 0 0 746 0 0 0 620 0 0 0 2,163 0 0 0 1,998 0 0 0 165 0 0 0 232 0 0 0 61 0 0 0 284 0 943 1,153 0 0 943 290 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. 6,279 1,710 -100 1,533 .. 423 335 835 2,516 .. 2,795 1,363 -1,243 -918 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11,131 1,155 2,363

16,956 6,958 3,471

3,727 -2,207 1,670

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

7.5 15.3 5.1 14.6

7.8 2.9 2.9 5.0

6.3 11.2 8.7 22.4

5.4 10.3 9.7 28.1

5.9 9.6 9.5 24.4

5.4 10.7 5.6 23.9

3.4 8.0 7.8 31.7

.. .. .. ..

7.2 17.8 5.6 18.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 14.5 5.2 16.3

4.7 12.3 7.6 31.6

2.5 16.1 5.1 46.1

6.9 12.7 0.7 12.8

2.6 11.0 9.2 45.6

.. 8.5 7.8 6.0 5.5 5.9 .. 7.4 2.9 10.0 10.0 9.6 .. 3.6 2.9 10.0 10.0 9.6 .. 3.9 5.0 24.5 27.7 24.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

4.3 9.2 9.2 32.1

3.5 7.7 7.7 30.1

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

13,045 2,736

12,196 2,325

8,314 3,210

9,984 1,712

7,451 1,352

3,983 1,146

5,219 1,038

3,900 788

2,886 514

3,357 429

3,893 331

4,409 217

2,655 82

201 38

357 30

198 21

2,717 451

3,167 371

3,690 279

4,229 171

2,487 42

35 4

36 3

37 2

170 63

190 58

203 52

180 46

168 40

166 34

321 27

160 19

10,158 2,222

8,839 1,896

4,422 2,878

5,574 1,496

4,796 1,270

3,782 1,108

4,862 1,008

3,702 766

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports by the country and include both convertible and nonconvertible debt. Short-term debt data based on World Bank Staff estimates. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004. It also includes the effect of the DDSR operation with commercial banks that was concluded in October 1994. The 1994 DDSR agreement restructured $14.3 billion of debt.

320

ROMANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

7,008 5,805 5,805 0 660 543 0 0 0

1,140 230 223 7 0 910 0 0 0

6,832 4,491 3,957 534 1,038 1,303 0 0 0

11,167 9,951 6,589 3,362 453 763 12 4 8

12,651 11,272 7,034 4,238 387 991 12 4 7

16,694 14,970 9,034 5,935 428 1,296 13 4 9

22,629 19,531 11,729 7,801 595 2,503 11 5 6

30,034 24,756 13,667 11,089 443 4,835 12 5 7

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

16 0 16

22 0 22

28 1 27

26 1 24

40 2 38

509 509 0 1,391 1,216 176 -905 -23 673 540 81 52 -1,578 2,064 1,756 256 52

26 26 0 4 4 0 44 22 14 0 0 14 30 18 4 0 14

1,513 1,455 57 675 302 373 1,174 337 321 206 69 47 853 997 508 441 47

3,258 3,144 114 1,803 1,707 96 1,841 386 698 632 24 42 1,143 2,501 2,339 120 42

3,323 3,257 66 1,896 1,779 117 1,656 229 665 606 19 40 991 2,561 2,385 136 40

4,840 4,733 107 2,514 2,416 98 2,628 303 670 627 11 32 1,959 3,184 3,043 109 32

5,035 4,804 231 2,703 2,592 111 3,542 1,210 866 815 9 42 2,677 3,569 3,407 120 42

7,843 7,843 0 3,575 3,404 171 6,598 2,330 1,150 1,006 14 130 5,448 4,725 4,410 185 130

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-707 -707 0 0 0 0

24 22 0 0 2 2

1,606 1,153 419 0 35 152

2,725 1,437 1,037 58 193 109

2,900 1,478 1,157 8 257 112

3,741 2,317 1,144 21 260 127

4,523 2,212 1,844 69 398 143

10,728 4,439 5,440 111 739 151

-1,247 540 0

24 0 0

1,373 206 28

2,021 632 72

2,177 606 117

2,917 627 197

3,454 815 254

8,601 1,006 1,121

39,883 13,876 116 17,244 4,858 -2,229

45,290 16,643 143 19,697 7,286 -1,525

55,866 21,032 124 26,190 9,449 -3,311

71,871 27,522 132 36,200 16,095 -5,589

91.2 31.7 18.5 4.8 1.7 38.4 3.4 7.8 2.4 28.0

100.3 36.9 19.1 4.0 1.5 43.6 4.4 7.8 1.6 25.0

107.6 40.5 17.0 4.1 1.5 41.8 4.3 11.1 1.7 21.5

109.1 41.8 17.2 4.2 1.6 53.6 5.3 16.1 1.7 18.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. 11,036 0 9,655 1,447 1,381

38,455 6,555 0 9,915 1,374 -3,254

63.5 .. 18.7 6.1 .. 20.7 1.8 7.7 2.1 23.3

17.4 3.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 120.5 1.7 79.8 19.2 0.0

35,222 9,489 9 11,628 2,624 -1,774

36,768 12,440 96 14,653 3,396 -1,355

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

72.0 19.4 10.5 3.4 0.9 38.4 2.7 19.1 6.2 24.7

321

89.8 30.4 20.1 5.6 1.9 30.4 2.8 6.8 3.1 30.1

ROMANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

5,805 5,805 2,737 1,633 0 1,103 148 3,068 0 2,620 0 0 0

230 223 218 0 0 218 218 5 0 0 7 0 7

4,491 3,957 2,998 1,685 0 1,312 424 959 0 250 534 0 534

9,951 6,589 4,149 3,364 15 785 329 2,440 736 1,157 3,362 0 3,362

11,272 7,034 4,274 3,540 19 734 282 2,760 1,064 1,271 4,238 0 4,238

14,970 9,034 4,894 4,176 22 718 251 4,140 1,101 2,643 5,935 0 5,935

19,531 11,729 5,578 4,862 42 716 332 6,152 2,210 3,594 7,801 0 7,801

24,756 13,667 6,273 5,577 183 696 333 7,394 2,179 4,963 11,089 0 11,089

1,633 0 5,805 0

0 0 223 7

844 0 3,899 592

1,898 0 6,440 3,511

1,876 0 6,901 4,371

2,173 0 8,891 6,079

2,296 0 11,531 8,000

2,522 0 13,250 11,507

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

509 509 259 49 0 210 0 250 0 150 0 0 0

26 23 19 0 0 19 19 5 0 0 3 0 3

1,455 1,185 873 361 0 511 286 312 0 165 271 0 271

3,144 1,937 1,083 932 8 151 57 854 139 674 1,207 0 1,207

3,257 1,886 650 521 4 128 40 1,237 672 532 1,371 0 1,371

4,733 2,595 724 610 2 114 29 1,871 142 1,649 2,138 0 2,138

4,804 2,674 686 578 12 108 60 1,988 792 1,147 2,130 0 2,130

7,843 2,829 1,111 953 132 158 52 1,717 0 1,684 5,014 0 5,014

49 0

0 0

128 0

384 0

132 0

335 0

131 0

305 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,216 1,216 320 146 0 174 0 895 0 694 0 0 0

4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 4

302 217 132 14 0 118 0 85 0 13 86 0 86

1,707 985 493 326 0 168 72 492 0 328 721 75 646

1,779 1,233 399 249 0 150 66 834 297 395 546 0 546

2,416 1,377 491 297 0 194 90 886 290 455 1,039 0 1,039

2,592 1,425 570 330 0 239 64 855 0 691 1,167 0 1,167

3,404 1,506 639 432 1 207 68 868 186 548 1,898 0 1,898

146 0

0 0

0 0

91 0

101 0

120 0

145 0

163 0

540 540 235 127 0 107 0 306 0 256 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

206 179 124 70 0 54 7 56 0 8 27 0 27

632 440 269 207 1 62 14 171 45 76 193 7 186

606 446 263 213 2 50 11 183 48 96 160 0 160

627 446 202 163 1 39 9 245 131 86 181 0 181

815 570 205 170 1 35 10 366 131 206 245 0 245

1,006 630 204 178 1 27 10 426 193 217 376 0 376

127 0

0 0

53 0

104 0

103 0

76 0

69 0

65 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

322

ROMANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 2.6 68.5

.. 0.0 0.0 89.5 9.8

.. 2.7 0.0 1.8 34.4

.. 5.3 0.0 0.9 42.4

43.2 1.7 0.0 0.9 38.9

49.8 1.6 0.0 0.9 34.8

57.6 2.3 0.5 0.9 27.1

58.6 2.4 1.0 0.8 27.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION -750 53 1,230 2,152 1,484 -905 44 1,174 1,841 1,656 373 39 123 -255 -206 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 85 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

4,043 2,628 696

5,936 3,542 1,036

7,405 6,598 610

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

9.1 18.2 3.4 3.5

7.6 10.7 4.5 13.2

6.1 12.2 4.0 18.7

7.4 11.4 3.3 14.2

7.0 11.6 4.8 16.8

5.5 10.8 4.8 20.6

3.6 10.8 4.2 31.0

3.9 9.5 3.4 26.8

8.5 26.5 0.5 8.3

2.7 25.5 10.0 57.3

6.0 13.3 4.3 20.5

5.9 16.9 4.2 24.5

3.3 24.9 6.7 49.4

3.6 17.5 4.8 39.3

1.6 19.7 5.5 56.5

5.9 12.2 5.0 30.9

9.4 8.4 6.9 9.1 8.5 6.0 15.1 8.2 7.2 5.7 6.3 9.2 4.5 3.6 2.7 2.5 4.0 4.8 1.6 5.8 10.5 3.5 4.0 15.8 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

4.3 7.4 3.7 21.3

3.0 8.2 2.7 24.8

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,084 1,209

2,950 1,103

3,254 977

3,339 879

2,395 703

3,064 618

1,979 487

2,836 374

811 302

931 289

678 238

704 222

721 203

640 182

604 163

576 144

292 28

69 18

56 17

57 15

56 14

38 12

42 11

41 10

519 273

863 271

623 221

647 207

665 189

603 170

562 152

535 134

2,273 907

2,018 814

2,575 740

2,635 657

1,674 500

2,423 436

1,375 324

2,261 230

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country.

323

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

121,401 101,582 101,582 0 9,617 10,201 5,851 1,236 4,616

160,023 132,780 111,018 21,762 11,613 15,630 4,530 4,454 76

152,488 126,083 103,757 22,326 7,433 18,972 5,372 5,304 67

147,427 124,627 96,113 28,514 6,481 16,319 4,319 4,251 67

175,523 139,996 98,875 41,121 5,069 30,457 3,257 3,190 67

197,335 158,624 99,646 58,978 3,562 35,149 2,949 2,882 67

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

22,417 4,138 18,279

7,368 6,602 766

5,456 5,206 250

4,853 4,603 250

4,057 3,807 250

2,159 1,795 365

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

8,536 3,083 5,453 3,273 3,273 0 4,913 -350 2,885 2,591 294 0 2,027 6,158 5,864 294 0

1,416 1,416 0 6,221 3,333 2,888 -2,805 2,000 5,604 4,284 691 630 -8,409 11,825 7,617 3,579 630

2,936 2,936 0 9,333 5,516 3,817 -3,897 2,500 7,937 6,806 507 624 -11,834 17,270 12,322 4,323 624

6,027 6,027 0 7,000 5,514 1,486 -2,572 -1,600 7,168 6,433 209 525 -9,740 14,168 11,947 1,695 525

14,099 14,099 0 10,952 9,055 1,897 12,747 9,600 8,243 7,462 113 669 4,504 19,195 16,517 2,010 669

18,576 18,576 0 12,812 11,156 1,656 10,764 5,000 8,369 7,551 112 705 2,396 21,181 18,707 1,768 705

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

2,871 -190 2,065 46 950 527

1,608 -1,917 2,713 150 662 587

1,068 -2,580 2,748 542 358 803

6,842 514 3,461 2,626 241 1,116

13,829 5,044 7,958 413 413 878

21,086 7,421 12,479 528 658 725

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

82 2,591 197

-3,563 4,284 887

-7,232 6,806 1,493

-2,561 6,433 2,969

-6,154 7,462 12,521

4,971 7,551 8,563

302,365 120,488 1,403 85,513 36,303 33,795

338,473 126,821 1,359 96,723 48,326 29,116

418,316 163,515 1,453 127,419 78,409 35,410

568,620 215,221 2,668 153,526 126,258 59,920

126.6 50.4 14.3 6.6 2.6 23.8 5.1 12.4 0.0 4.6

116.2 43.6 11.2 5.7 2.1 32.8 6.0 11.1 0.0 4.6

107.3 42.0 11.7 5.0 2.0 44.7 7.4 17.4 0.0 3.7

91.7 34.7 9.8 3.9 1.5 64.0 9.9 17.8 0.0 3.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

392,156 97,268 2,503 90,459 18,024 6,965

252,972 119,351 1,275 72,582 27,656 46,840

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

124.8 31.0 6.3 3.0 0.7 14.8 2.4 8.4 0.0 1.6

324

134.1 63.3 9.9 4.7 2.2 17.3 4.6 9.8 0.0 4.4

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

101,582 101,582 57,449 1,985 0 55,464 1,408 44,133 1,115 16,674 0 0 0

132,780 111,018 70,851 7,040 0 63,811 1,240 40,167 36,368 440 21,762 1,412 20,350

126,083 103,757 64,236 6,969 0 57,267 993 39,521 35,279 390 22,326 1,734 20,592

124,627 96,113 55,671 6,807 0 48,865 859 40,442 36,797 452 28,514 4,526 23,989

139,996 98,875 53,148 6,579 0 46,569 737 45,727 42,981 2 41,121 10,852 30,269

158,624 99,646 54,457 6,178 0 48,279 1,921 45,189 42,562 0 58,978 20,070 38,907

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1,524 0 101,582 0

6,844 0 111,018 21,762

6,746 0 103,757 22,326

6,599 0 96,113 28,514

6,289 0 98,875 41,121

5,743 0 99,646 58,978

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,083 3,083 1,092 855 0 237 133 1,990 0 20 0 0 0

1,416 1,036 746 574 0 172 0 290 0 0 380 75 305

2,936 912 738 432 0 306 21 174 0 0 2,024 528 1,496

6,027 829 643 246 0 397 8 187 0 0 5,198 3,493 1,705

14,099 610 418 348 0 69 0 192 0 0 13,489 6,686 6,803

18,576 445 396 347 0 49 6 49 0 0 18,131 9,675 8,456

.. ..

.. ..

824 0

540 0

378 0

229 0

233 0

172 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,273 3,273 917 434 0 483 0 2,356 810 51 0 0 0

3,333 2,031 1,206 312 0 894 41 825 268 19 1,302 825 477

5,516 4,104 1,740 382 0 1,359 166 2,364 1,000 29 1,412 207 1,205

5,514 3,449 2,491 557 0 1,933 142 959 17 9 2,065 730 1,335

9,055 5,935 2,788 752 0 2,036 122 3,147 1,688 485 3,120 576 2,544

11,156 5,845 3,684 811 0 2,873 152 2,160 1,341 2 5,311 430 4,881

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

266 0

355 0

526 0

719 0

780 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

2,591 2,591 1,245 132 0 1,113 19 1,346 140 600 0 0 0

4,284 3,207 1,227 431 0 796 1 1,979 1,845 4 1,077 165 912

6,806 5,861 3,212 399 0 2,812 24 2,650 2,414 43 945 80 865

6,433 5,405 2,441 245 0 2,195 27 2,964 2,756 34 1,029 281 748

7,462 5,600 2,745 179 0 2,566 22 2,855 2,697 36 1,862 966 897

7,551 5,431 2,427 145 0 2,282 50 3,004 2,911 0 2,120 954 1,166

.. ..

.. ..

57 0

412 0

384 0

238 0

175 0

137 0

325

RUSSIAN FEDERATION (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.0 0.8 2.8 52.1

.. 0.8 0.1 0.0 71.6

20.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 72.7

23.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 68.7

22.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 70.2

21.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 71.4

.. 7,166 26,526 2,171 .. 0 17,369 0 .. 5,427 3,188 2,171 .. 2,069 2,782 2,171 .. 3,358 406 0 .. 1,122 4,356 0 .. 547 2,198 0 .. 575 2,157 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 11,600 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. -374 -14,731 -7,535 .. .. 4,913 -2,805 -3,897 .. .. 3,391 -3,058 -1,896 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

2,123 0 2,123 2,123 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,940 0 2,595 2,595 0 345 345 0 0 0 0 0

1,900 0 1,765 1,765 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-5,061 -2,572 4,889

28,096 12,747 5,569

21,812 10,764 2,073

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

7.0 15.1 5.0 16.7

5.1 9.9 2.7 17.1

5.2 13.1 2.2 22.7

2.7 13.7 4.3 39.6

2.5 14.0 4.0 40.1

2.9 15.2 4.2 40.6

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

7.0 16.7 5.6 18.1

7.3 16.8 5.3 16.0

5.3 13.3 2.2 22.7

2.7 14.1 4.3 40.2

2.5 14.0 4.0 40.1

2.9 15.2 4.2 40.6

.. .. 7.0 4.3 3.0 2.8 .. .. 9.3 7.3 7.0 6.5 .. .. 2.5 1.7 2.0 3.5 .. .. 11.9 17.5 23.7 26.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

16,687 8,202

14,772 7,535

17,808 7,020

17,043 6,459

13,613 5,694

11,745 5,017

13,477 4,458

8,941 3,983

4,353 2,940

4,043 2,803

4,586 2,643

4,758 2,455

4,933 2,259

4,905 2,041

4,687 1,804

4,611 1,552

3,417 2,705

3,173 2,585

3,673 2,445

3,856 2,280

4,070 2,109

4,081 1,916

3,948 1,704

3,994 1,476

936 236

870 218

913 198

901 175

863 151

824 125

740 100

618 76

12,334 5,262

10,729 4,732

13,222 4,377

12,285 4,004

8,679 3,435

6,841 2,976

8,789 2,654

4,329 2,431

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and short-term debt for 2004 are estimates, based on data provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Data prior to 1992 are for the former Soviet Union. Beginning in 1993, the database has been revised to include obligations to members of the former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and other countries in the form of trade-related credits amounting to $15.4 billion as of end-1996. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004, as well as the February 2000 rescheduling with London Club creditors.

326

RWANDA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

366 329 329 0 10 27 0 0 0

712 664 664 0 0 47 2 2 0

1,031 972 972 0 26 32 18 18 0

1,273 1,148 1,148 0 86 39 17 17 0

1,285 1,165 1,165 0 84 36 17 16 0

1,437 1,307 1,307 0 85 45 17 17 0

1,540 1,418 1,418 0 92 30 18 18 0

1,656 1,545 1,545 0 92 18 18 18 0

0 0 0

8 8 0

46 44 2

74 73 1

73 72 1

78 77 1

81 79 2

82 80 2

78 78 0 11 9 2 57 -10 7 4 0 3 50 18 14 2 3

62 62 0 10 9 1 54 2 11 6 0 5 43 21 15 1 5

68 54 14 11 11 0 53 -4 9 8 0 0 44 20 20 0 0

65 40 25 24 13 11 25 -16 11 8 1 1 14 35 21 13 1

76 64 12 12 10 2 62 -2 7 5 1 1 55 18 15 3 1

85 85 1 11 8 2 84 9 6 6 1 0 77 17 14 3 0

32 31 1 13 12 2 3 -16 8 7 0 0 -5 21 19 2 0

102 100 2 13 13 1 77 -12 11 10 0 0 66 24 23 1 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

155 69 15 0 71 61

206 53 8 0 145 90

610 43 2 0 566 97

246 27 8 0 211 56

213 54 5 0 154 57

265 77 3 0 185 82

227 20 5 0 202 95

380 88 8 0 285 97

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

142 4 8

194 6 6

600 8 2

235 8 3

205 5 3

259 6 0

214 7 6

367 10 3

1,796 145 7 452 191 -94

1,680 179 8 468 212 -102

1,713 148 7 462 244 -126

1,653 151 10 453 215 -85

1,814 216 10 526 315 -6

877.0 70.9 24.1 7.7 0.6 15.0 5.1 3.0 90.1 78.4

718.8 76.5 10.3 3.7 0.4 16.5 5.4 2.8 90.5 79.1

970.8 83.9 11.5 4.4 0.4 17.0 6.3 3.2 90.8 80.5

1,017.9 93.1 14.0 5.2 0.5 13.9 5.7 2.0 92.0 82.4

767.5 91.3 11.2 5.1 0.6 19.0 7.2 1.1 93.2 84.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,707 172 3 351 113 -64

2,572 148 3 375 44 -85

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

213.2 21.4 10.4 4.1 0.4 31.0 3.9 7.4 86.2 63.5

481.1 27.7 14.2 7.6 0.4 6.2 1.4 6.6 92.6 76.2

1,299 99 21 391 99 57

4. DEBT INDICATORS 1,043.3 79.4 20.5 9.0 0.7 9.6 3.0 3.1 93.5 78.9

327

RWANDA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

329 329 317 232 230 85 85 12 0 0 0 0 0

664 664 661 542 541 119 118 4 0 0 0 0 0

972 972 971 814 813 157 150 2 0 0 0 0 0

1,148 1,148 1,147 997 997 150 150 1 0 0 0 0 0

1,165 1,165 1,164 1,016 1,016 147 147 1 0 0 0 0 0

1,307 1,307 1,305 1,157 1,157 148 148 1 0 0 0 0 0

1,418 1,418 1,416 1,269 1,269 147 147 2 0 0 0 0 0

1,545 1,545 1,543 1,402 1,402 141 141 2 0 0 0 0 0

0 152 329 0

0 340 664 0

0 512 972 0

0 692 1,148 0

0 713 1,165 0

0 826 1,307 0

0 909 1,418 0

0 1,020 1,545 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

78 78 76 46 46 30 30 2 0 0 0 0 0

62 62 62 37 37 26 25 0 0 0 0 0 0

54 54 54 54 54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

40 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

64 64 64 64 64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

85 85 85 85 85 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31 31 31 31 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 30

0 22

0 35

0 37

0 53

0 73

0 24

0 82

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

9 9 4 2 2 2 2 5 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 7 5 5 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0

11 11 11 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 10 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 6 6 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 3 3 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 4 4 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 4 4 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 1

0 6

0 6

0 3

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 7 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 7 5 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 8 8 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 7

0 5

0 3

0 2

0 3

0 6

328

RWANDA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.3 0.0 0.0 39.1

.. 1.5 0.0 0.0 38.6

.. 1.3 0.0 0.0 45.7

.. 0.4 0.0 0.0 60.1

7.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 61.8

7.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 63.4

7.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 63.9

6.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 64.7

5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 11 5 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 5 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 4 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 3 0 0

12 62 -30

152 84 61

103 3 69

116 77 34

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0 0 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 76 88 77 -21 57 54 53 25 10 9 -21 -37 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS 2.5 26.5 8.2 58.5

1.4 33.9 9.0 70.6

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.8 40.4 10.9 80.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

1.0 45.0 9.4 78.3

0.8 46.7 10.3 82.4

2.3 27.4 8.6 60.7

1.4 33.9 9.0 70.6

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.8 39.7 10.2 80.5

0.8 40.4 10.9 80.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

1.0 45.0 9.4 78.3

0.8 46.7 10.3 82.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

36 13

35 13

35 13

38 13

41 13

42 13

44 12

48 12

36 13

35 13

35 13

38 13

41 13

42 13

44 12

48 12

8 2

6 2

5 2

5 2

5 1

5 1

5 1

4 1

28 11

29 11

30 11

33 11

37 11

37 11

40 11

43 11

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004.

329

SAMOA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

76.1 63.8 63.8 0.0 10.9 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

92.0 91.0 91.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

170.4 168.1 168.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

197.4 147.3 147.3 0.0 0.0 50.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

204.3 143.3 143.3 0.0 0.0 61.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

234.4 156.8 156.8 0.0 0.0 77.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

365.0 169.3 169.3 0.0 0.0 195.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

562.1 177.1 177.1 0.0 0.0 385.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

4.2 2.5 1.7 5.3 3.6 1.7 -2.1 -1.0 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 -4.5 7.7 5.2 2.3 0.1

15.4 15.4 0.0 4.1 3.3 0.9 11.3 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.9 5.5 4.4 1.0 0.0

12.7 12.7 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 11.9 2.1 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.1 10.2 4.6 4.6 0.0 0.1

6.7 6.7 0.0 4.2 4.2 0.0 16.8 14.3 4.3 1.4 0.0 2.9 12.5 8.5 5.6 0.0 2.9

3.3 3.3 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.0 10.7 10.9 3.9 1.3 0.0 2.6 6.8 7.4 4.8 0.0 2.6

2.8 2.8 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.0 15.8 16.6 4.3 1.3 0.0 3.0 11.6 7.8 4.8 0.0 3.0

4.9 4.9 0.0 4.2 4.2 0.0 118.7 118.1 8.9 1.3 0.0 7.5 109.9 13.1 5.6 0.0 7.5

5.2 5.2 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0 189.8 189.4 16.4 1.6 0.0 14.8 173.5 21.1 6.3 0.0 14.8

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

9.1 -1.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 7.6

32.3 12.1 0.0 0.0 20.2 13.5

30.6 9.8 0.0 0.0 20.8 16.9

5.8 2.5 -1.5 0.0 4.9 17.6

20.9 -0.2 1.2 0.0 19.9 17.3

16.9 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 17.8 20.6

10.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 9.4 20.9

6.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 5.2 24.4

7.3 1.7 0.1

31.1 1.2 0.0

29.0 1.6 0.0

4.4 1.4 0.0

19.6 1.3 0.0

15.7 1.3 0.0

9.2 1.3 0.0

4.6 1.6 0.0

230.9 .. 45.0 .. 63.7 ..

238.3 .. 45.0 .. 56.6 ..

259.4 .. 45.0 .. 62.5 ..

317.2 .. 45.0 .. 83.9 ..

374.8 .. 45.0 .. 95.5 ..

.. 85.5 .. .. 1.8 32.2 .. 25.4 73.4 70.0

.. 85.7 .. .. 1.6 27.7 .. 29.9 69.2 63.3

.. 90.3 .. .. 1.6 26.7 .. 33.1 66.1 60.8

.. 115.1 .. .. 2.8 23.0 .. 53.6 45.9 42.6

.. 150.0 .. .. 4.4 17.0 .. 68.5 31.2 29.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

93.3 51.0 24.0 60.3 14.0 1.9

164.3 94.1 43.0 96.5 69.0 8.6

149.4 81.6 15.1 4.7 2.6 18.4 2.8 1.9 67.9 68.9

97.7 56.0 5.8 1.4 0.8 75.1 8.6 0.2 90.5 88.2

193.7 108.4 41.0 119.9 55.3 9.3

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

157.2 88.0 4.3 1.5 0.9 32.5 5.5 1.3 94.6 92.2

330

SAMOA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

63.8 63.8 60.5 52.4 49.5 8.1 2.2 3.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

91.0 91.0 89.6 81.1 76.5 8.5 6.7 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

168.1 168.1 168.1 157.1 150.3 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

147.3 147.3 147.3 138.2 135.8 9.1 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

143.3 143.3 143.3 129.3 127.4 14.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

156.8 156.8 156.8 142.5 140.6 14.2 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

169.3 169.3 169.3 155.3 153.5 14.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

177.1 177.1 177.1 163.7 162.1 13.3 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 10.1 63.8 0.0

0.0 18.3 91.0 0.0

0.0 44.7 168.1 0.0

0.0 47.3 147.3 0.0

0.0 47.9 143.3 0.0

0.0 51.4 156.8 0.0

0.0 57.6 169.3 0.0

0.0 61.7 177.1 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.4 15.4 15.4 15.0 14.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.7 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.7 6.7 6.7 6.0 6.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.8 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.6

0.0 3.5

0.0 0.7

0.0 5.7

0.0 3.0

0.0 1.3

0.0 3.0

0.0 2.7

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3.6 3.6 2.6 1.0 1.0 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.3 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.0 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.2 4.2 4.2 3.3 2.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.7 4.7 4.7 4.1 3.8 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.7

0.0 0.9

0.0 0.9

0.0 1.0

0.0 1.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.7 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.5

331

SAMOA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.3

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.6

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.8

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.3

2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.0

2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 38.9

2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3

2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 0.6 18.3 13.4 5.0 6.9 -2.1 11.3 11.9 16.8 10.7 1.2 6.0 -1.0 -10.2 -7.6 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

30.0 15.8 12.6

130.7 118.7 17.1

197.1 189.8 7.1

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.9 41.7 10.2 79.2

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.5

0.7 40.6 9.9 80.6

1.1 35.1 9.0 74.5

1.4 31.2 7.7 69.4

1.4 31.6 8.1 69.9

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

1.0 36.8 9.5 76.7

0.9 41.7 10.2 79.2

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.5

0.7 40.6 9.9 80.6

1.1 35.1 9.0 74.5

1.4 31.2 7.7 69.4

1.4 31.6 8.1 69.9

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

1.0 36.8 9.5 76.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

7.3 1.6

7.5 1.6

7.6 1.6

7.9 1.6

7.9 1.6

6.8 1.6

7.5 1.6

7.9 1.5

7.3 1.6

7.5 1.6

7.6 1.6

7.9 1.6

7.9 1.6

6.8 1.6

7.5 1.6

7.9 1.5

2.5 0.0

2.4 0.0

2.4 0.0

2.4 0.0

2.4 0.0

0.2 0.0

0.2 0.0

0.2 0.0

4.8 1.6

5.0 1.6

5.2 1.6

5.6 1.6

5.6 1.6

6.6 1.6

7.3 1.6

7.7 1.5

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

332

SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

62.6 61.9 61.9 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0

150.0 132.9 132.9 0.0 1.1 16.0 7.6 7.4 0.2

244.8 231.0 231.0 0.0 0.8 13.0 6.0 6.0 0.0

321.9 300.4 300.4 0.0 2.5 19.0 7.0 7.0 0.0

320.9 301.6 301.6 0.0 2.4 16.9 6.9 6.9 0.0

342.7 317.2 317.2 0.0 2.6 22.9 7.9 7.9 0.0

349.2 337.8 337.8 0.0 2.8 8.6 8.6 8.6 0.0

362.2 349.7 349.7 0.0 3.0 9.5 9.5 9.5 0.0

2.2 2.1 0.1

21.4 20.4 1.0

27.2 27.2 0.0

47.6 47.6 0.0

47.3 47.3 0.0

43.4 43.4 0.0

45.2 45.2 0.0

47.5 47.5 0.0

8.7 8.7 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 7.2 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 5.9 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.0

15.6 15.6 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 9.2 -5.3 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.5 7.4 2.8 2.3 0.0 0.5

13.0 13.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 12.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.3 11.7 2.3 1.8 0.2 0.3

13.9 11.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 0.0 11.7 0.0 2.1 1.2 0.0 0.9 9.5 4.3 3.4 0.0 0.9

9.6 9.6 0.0 1.7 1.7 0.0 5.9 -2.0 2.4 1.8 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.1 3.5 0.0 0.5

4.9 4.9 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.0 7.6 5.0 2.5 2.1 0.0 0.3 5.0 4.9 4.5 0.0 0.3

6.4 6.4 0.0 3.9 3.9 0.0 -12.5 -15.0 2.8 2.6 0.0 0.2 -15.3 6.7 6.5 0.0 0.2

10.2 10.2 0.0 6.5 6.5 0.0 3.7 0.0 3.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 9.6 9.6 0.0 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

15.6 7.2 0.0 0.0 8.3 3.1

41.1 14.4 0.0 0.0 26.7 7.0

36.7 12.2 0.0 0.0 24.6 20.5

26.5 9.2 4.0 0.0 13.3 11.9

25.0 7.9 3.0 0.0 14.1 10.5

17.3 2.6 3.0 0.0 11.7 11.8

29.3 2.6 7.0 0.0 19.8 12.7

74.5 3.7 54.0 0.0 16.8 15.3

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

14.3 1.3 0.0

39.9 1.2 0.0

35.8 0.9 0.0

25.3 1.2 0.0

23.1 1.8 0.0

15.1 2.1 0.0

26.7 2.6 0.0

71.4 3.1 0.0

42.5 16.7 0.0 39.7 11.6 -19.1

42.8 16.7 1.0 41.1 15.5 -21.0

47.4 19.2 1.0 46.2 17.4 -22.8

56.6 21.3 1.0 49.4 25.5 ..

59.2 .. 1.0 .. 19.8 ..

1,926.4 757.7 25.8 12.7 5.0 3.6 3.5 5.9 88.5 52.6

1,925.5 749.2 24.3 14.1 5.5 4.8 4.5 5.3 88.7 52.6

1,787.4 722.6 25.5 13.1 5.3 5.1 4.5 6.7 86.9 53.8

1,641.7 617.3 31.4 13.2 5.0 7.3 6.2 2.5 90.7 57.1

.. 612.4 .. .. 5.3 5.5 .. 2.6 90.7 58.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

52.0 9.6 0.0 30.3 .. -15.9

52.5 8.2 0.0 22.4 .. -12.0

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

650.0 120.5 29.0 13.4 2.5 .. .. 1.2 69.3 34.2

1,820.9 286.0 34.4 20.7 3.3 .. .. 10.7 71.7 48.4

40.0 .. 0.0 .. 5.1 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 611.9 .. .. 3.1 2.1 .. 5.3 90.1 62.1

333

SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

61.9 61.9 56.2 21.5 21.4 34.8 22.0 5.7 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

132.9 132.9 131.7 72.6 69.1 59.2 38.6 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

231.0 231.0 231.0 152.0 149.8 79.0 70.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

300.4 300.4 300.4 169.3 165.6 131.1 119.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

301.6 301.6 301.6 168.8 164.7 132.8 120.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

317.2 317.2 317.2 184.5 179.7 132.7 118.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

337.8 337.8 337.8 199.3 194.0 138.4 122.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

349.7 349.7 349.7 212.3 206.5 137.5 122.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 61.9 0.0

0.0 23.9 132.9 0.0

0.0 53.6 231.0 0.0

0.0 58.9 300.4 0.0

0.0 61.0 301.6 0.0

0.0 65.6 317.2 0.0

0.0 71.4 337.8 0.0

0.0 76.9 349.7 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

8.7 8.7 8.7 0.1 0.1 8.6 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.6 15.6 15.6 12.8 11.7 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.4 11.4 11.4 8.4 5.8 2.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.6 9.6 9.6 8.1 7.2 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 4.9 4.9 3.1 2.9 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.4 6.4 6.4 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 5.4

0.0 5.6

0.0 1.7

0.0 5.0

0.0 0.9

0.0 0.7

0.0 3.2

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.5 1.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.4 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.9 3.9 3.9 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.5 6.5 6.5 3.0 2.6 3.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.3 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.8 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.6 2.6 2.6 1.0 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.1 3.1 3.1 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.4

334

SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.6

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.3

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.8

.. 0.0 0.0 4.4 44.6

3.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 45.8

4.8 0.0 0.0 4.9 46.2

5.3 0.0 0.0 5.2 44.8

5.3 0.0 0.0 5.5 43.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 29.5 23.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 13.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 14.4 13.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 9.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 9.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 8.6 15.6 22.0 -1.8 -1.0 7.2 9.2 12.9 11.7 5.9 -0.1 2.3 1.3 -7.6 -7.6 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

3.5 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.0

1.9 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0

21.8 7.6 2.3

6.5 -12.5 7.8

13.0 3.7 4.4

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.4 29.3 7.3 56.2

0.8 35.8 10.1 76.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 38.7 9.3 76.6

0.8 41.1 11.3 81.1

1.4 22.6 6.6 60.7

0.8 49.9 10.4 83.3

1.0 37.5 9.7 77.0

2.4 29.3 7.3 56.2

0.8 35.8 10.1 76.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 38.7 9.3 76.6

0.8 41.1 11.3 81.1

1.4 22.6 6.6 60.7

0.8 49.9 10.4 83.3

1.0 37.5 9.7 77.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11.7 4.1

12.1 4.0

12.9 3.9

13.2 3.8

13.4 3.6

13.4 3.5

13.6 3.3

14.3 3.1

11.7 4.1

12.1 4.0

12.9 3.9

13.2 3.8

13.4 3.6

13.4 3.5

13.6 3.3

14.3 3.1

6.4 2.3

6.3 2.2

6.2 2.0

6.1 1.9

6.1 1.8

6.0 1.7

6.0 1.6

6.0 1.5

5.4 1.8

5.8 1.9

6.7 1.9

7.1 1.8

7.3 1.8

7.4 1.7

7.6 1.7

8.3 1.6

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

335

SENEGAL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,566 2,074 2,062 13 268 224 13 13 1

3,739 3,003 2,943 60 314 421 4 3 0

3,895 3,288 3,244 44 347 260 10 4 6

3,606 3,205 3,192 13 255 147 2 1 0

3,665 3,214 3,163 51 248 203 2 1 0

4,121 3,575 3,541 33 253 294 2 2 0

4,447 4,051 4,001 50 240 156 2 2 0

3,938 3,698 3,553 145 204 36 1 0 0

6 6 1

0 0 0

59 7 52

24 18 6

20 15 5

22 15 6

22 15 7

28 20 8

236 180 57 100 52 47 88 -49 90 51 19 20 -2 190 103 66 20

252 223 29 197 142 55 222 167 128 84 15 29 94 325 226 70 29

252 169 83 196 156 41 83 28 86 69 3 14 -3 283 225 43 14

161 142 19 148 127 21 -148 -161 77 58 1 17 -224 224 185 22 17

287 258 30 147 125 23 196 56 66 57 1 8 130 213 181 24 8

251 240 12 145 122 23 198 91 75 66 1 7 123 219 189 24 7

259 254 5 164 132 32 -44 -138 80 73 1 5 -123 244 206 33 5

519 514 5 259 224 35 142 -118 76 72 1 3 65 335 296 36 3

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

208 127 -16 0 96 92

693 81 57 1 553 175

423 13 32 4 373 185

323 15 63 -2 246 124

308 133 32 -5 148 141

392 117 78 3 194 159

333 122 52 4 156 205

1,120 289 70 4 757 219

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

140 51 17

548 84 60

291 69 62

189 58 75

184 57 67

236 66 90

171 73 89

958 72 0

4,294 1,562 233 1,929 384 -332

4,489 1,722 305 2,008 447 -245

4,885 1,885 344 2,273 637 -317

7,353 2,361 511 2,879 1,111 -437

7,546 .. 511 .. 1,386 ..

230.9 84.0 14.4 4.9 1.8 10.6 2.4 4.1 75.6 52.9

212.8 81.6 12.4 3.8 1.5 12.2 2.7 5.5 75.0 53.1

218.7 84.4 11.6 4.0 1.5 15.5 3.4 7.1 75.5 54.1

188.4 60.5 10.3 3.4 1.1 25.0 4.6 3.5 79.6 58.3

.. 52.2 .. .. 1.0 35.2 .. 0.9 85.8 74.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

2,452 910 79 1,296 15 -360

5,502 1,628 142 2,053 22 -363

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

281.9 104.7 20.8 9.9 3.7 0.6 0.1 8.7 37.5 22.6

229.7 67.9 20.0 7.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 11.3 52.7 36.5

4,321 1,680 146 2,033 272 -244

4. DEBT INDICATORS 231.9 90.1 16.8 5.1 2.0 7.0 1.6 6.7 58.6 47.9

336

SENEGAL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,074 2,062 1,784 581 400 1,203 562 278 2 161 13 0 13

3,003 2,943 2,762 1,366 1,153 1,396 818 181 0 129 60 0 60

3,288 3,244 3,164 1,864 1,577 1,300 704 80 0 74 44 0 44

3,205 3,192 3,182 1,908 1,762 1,274 966 10 0 10 13 0 13

3,214 3,163 3,144 1,945 1,815 1,199 933 19 0 17 51 0 51

3,575 3,541 3,519 2,230 2,107 1,288 1,004 23 0 19 33 0 33

4,051 4,001 3,976 2,595 2,445 1,382 1,094 25 0 21 50 0 50

3,698 3,553 3,530 2,941 2,788 589 589 23 0 20 145 0 145

89 232 2,055 19

88 747 2,906 97

35 1,126 3,212 76

1 1,330 3,192 13

0 1,384 3,163 51

0 1,578 3,541 33

0 1,806 4,001 50

0 2,040 3,553 145

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

180 174 159 52 36 107 74 14 0 6 6 0 6

223 208 207 136 127 72 72 0 0 0 15 0 15

169 168 168 139 132 28 28 0 0 0 1 0 1

142 141 136 121 114 15 15 5 0 5 1 0 1

258 202 193 170 165 23 20 10 0 7 55 0 55

240 230 227 185 180 42 42 3 0 1 10 0 10

254 240 237 196 179 41 41 3 0 2 14 0 14

514 404 404 357 344 47 47 0 0 0 110 0 110

4 29

0 117

0 107

0 92

0 119

0 114

0 107

0 173

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

52 48 27 13 6 14 4 20 0 9 5 0 5

142 130 111 58 29 53 25 19 0 8 12 0 12

156 150 129 98 59 31 14 21 0 12 5 0 5

127 124 124 67 49 57 39 0 0 0 3 0 3

125 108 108 44 32 63 50 0 0 0 17 0 17

122 112 111 44 31 67 50 1 0 0 10 0 10

132 119 116 42 37 73 52 3 0 2 14 0 14

224 209 207 63 56 144 39 2 0 2 15 0 15

4 2

13 3

12 6

3 11

1 10

0 6

0 13

0 15

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

51 50 30 9 2 21 1 20 0 15 1 0 1

84 82 71 26 9 45 20 10 0 7 3 0 3

69 68 65 38 14 27 8 3 0 2 1 0 1

58 58 58 25 16 33 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

57 53 53 19 15 34 20 0 0 0 4 0 4

66 65 65 28 18 37 25 0 0 0 1 0 1

73 72 70 26 19 45 27 1 0 1 2 0 2

72 64 64 36 31 28 25 0 0 0 8 0 8

6 2

6 4

3 8

0 8

0 9

0 10

0 12

0 15

337

SENEGAL (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.4 0.6 1.0 27.5

.. 1.5 0.2 0.9 32.9

.. 3.6 0.1 0.5 36.0

.. 3.1 0.1 0.2 45.1

19.6 2.5 0.1 0.1 47.6

20.1 2.2 0.1 0.1 48.0

21.0 1.9 0.1 0.1 48.6

11.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

100 111 261 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 76 173 0 0 38 57 166 0 0 36 18 7 0 0 19 27 49 0 0 12 23 48 0 0 7 4 1 0 0 0 18 14 12 21 0 0 5 10 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 363 465 222 -338 58 88 222 83 -148 196 178 30 -192 -163 -102 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 2 0 0

7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 2 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 350 4 82 0

456 198 253

326 -44 334

-509 142 172

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.4 23.5 6.0 34.7

1.9 33.5 8.7 66.2

1.2 37.8 9.2 74.8

0.9 38.2 9.5 76.9

1.4 32.4 7.9 68.4

1.8 34.1 9.5 68.0

1.4 37.9 8.8 72.2

0.8 35.5 9.3 76.7

4.2 27.3 6.9 44.5

1.9 33.8 8.8 66.8

1.2 37.8 9.2 74.8

0.7 39.3 9.8 79.3

1.3 32.9 8.0 69.5

1.8 34.2 9.5 68.2

1.3 38.1 8.8 72.8

0.8 35.5 9.3 76.7

9.9 8.3 0.0 5.4 7.1 3.0 10.1 10.1 0.0 8.7 7.3 9.3 2.7 2.6 0.0 2.0 0.5 2.8 -0.5 6.6 0.0 18.1 7.9 29.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

6.9 7.2 0.5 8.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

164 53

166 52

168 50

171 48

170 45

180 42

156 39

150 36

136 47

138 47

141 46

143 45

145 43

155 41

156 39

150 36

43 11

43 11

45 11

44 10

40 9

36 9

31 8

31 7

93 35

96 36

95 36

100 35

105 34

120 33

125 31

119 29

28 6

28 5

28 4

28 3

25 2

24 1

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

338

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

10,785 8,562 6,788 1,773 84 2,139 1,396 443 954

11,499 6,789 6,178 611 152 4,558 3,668 2,520 1,148

12,407 6,833 6,177 656 273 5,301 4,276 3,129 1,148

12,176 9,337 8,431 906 567 2,272 1,252 218 1,034

15,106 11,595 9,417 2,177 917 2,594 1,749 233 1,516

15,882 13,052 9,508 3,545 964 1,866 700 236 463

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

4,182 2,595 1,588

5,275 3,639 1,636

6,160 4,524 1,636

2,097 146 1,952

2,341 182 2,159

805 228 577

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 120 120 47 0 0 47 73 47 0 0 47

376 222 154 73 0 73 51 -252 47 0 29 18 4 120 0 102 18

314 187 127 30 30 0 419 135 76 16 7 52 343 106 46 7 52

888 629 259 79 79 0 804 -5 167 123 12 33 637 247 202 12 33

1,213 933 280 224 224 0 814 -175 301 258 13 30 513 525 482 13 30

2,313 2,072 241 643 409 235 1,990 321 337 281 24 32 1,653 981 690 259 32

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

532 0 45 0 487 57

1,545 222 25 0 1,298 125

1,537 157 165 0 1,215 223

3,034 550 137 0 2,347 317

3,066 709 1,360 0 997 312

3,366 1,663 966 0 737 318

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

532 0 0

1,545 0 0

1,520 16 0

2,911 123 0

2,808 258 0

3,085 281 0

8,604 3,732 1,132 4,046 .. -327

11,550 4,489 1,698 5,234 .. -528

15,417 5,392 2,089 7,030 .. -1,384

20,435 6,766 2,661 8,972 .. -2,121

23,704 .. 4,129 .. .. ..

308.1 133.7 3.2 1.3 0.5 .. .. 39.6 2.4 12.5

276.4 107.4 2.4 1.7 0.7 .. .. 42.7 2.2 11.0

225.8 79.0 4.6 3.1 1.1 .. .. 18.7 25.2 26.4

223.3 73.9 7.8 4.4 1.5 .. .. 17.2 23.6 25.6

.. 67.0 .. .. 1.4 .. .. 11.7 25.6 27.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 19.8 3.4 12.2

339

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

8,562 6,788 4,588 1,311 0 3,277 366 2,200 0 2,193 1,773 0 1,773

6,789 6,178 4,243 1,440 0 2,803 272 1,935 0 1,928 611 0 611

6,833 6,177 4,242 1,369 0 2,873 277 1,935 0 1,928 656 0 656

9,337 8,431 6,503 3,213 167 3,289 2,904 1,928 0 1,928 906 0 906

11,595 9,417 7,489 3,865 334 3,624 3,229 1,928 0 1,928 2,177 0 2,177

13,052 9,508 8,328 4,427 519 3,901 3,543 1,180 0 1,180 3,545 0 3,545

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

1,252 0 6,693 1,869

1,097 0 6,095 694

1,085 0 6,109 724

2,251 167 8,431 906

2,605 284 9,417 2,177

2,838 464 9,508 3,545

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

222 222 187 0 0 187 0 35 0 0 0 0 0

187 187 187 8 0 179 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

629 351 351 230 159 122 90 0 0 0 277 0 277

933 308 308 239 140 69 64 0 0 0 626 0 626

2,072 545 545 313 162 231 170 0 0 0 1,527 0 1,527

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 159

0 95

0 162

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

30 30 30 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

79 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 0 75

224 66 66 64 0 2 0 0 0 0 158 0 158

409 72 72 66 0 6 4 0 0 0 336 0 336

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

16 16 16 5 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

123 100 100 84 0 15 14 0 0 0 23 0 23

258 217 217 159 1 58 55 0 0 0 41 0 41

281 228 228 178 5 51 48 0 0 0 53 0 53

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

5 0

75 0

104 1

121 3

340

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.2 0.7 3.6 19.8

.. 2.0 0.5 2.8 24.6

18.2 1.7 0.5 2.7 27.0

19.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 54.8

22.8 0.0 0.2 1.7 54.5

27.5 0.0 0.2 1.8 69.4

215 0 52 52 0 134 134 0 0 0 0 0

4,433 957 1,287 1,284 3 756 754 2 838 0 114 0

0 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,180 733 0 0 0 349 0 349 0 569 1,196 0

908 419 -30

-232 804 369

2,930 814 870

777 1,990 -490

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. -315 599 .. .. 120 51 .. .. 215 -164 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.1 14.9 4.9 36.1

6.6 19.1 5.0 20.3

2.4 19.4 7.2 52.1

1.1 16.2 8.1 57.7

3.1 23.4 9.2 51.4

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 23.2 7.8 65.1

6.6 19.1 5.0 20.3

2.4 19.4 7.2 52.1

1.1 16.2 8.1 57.7

3.1 23.4 9.2 51.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 7.8 0.0 .. .. 0.0 6.4 0.0 .. .. 0.0 1.9 0.0 .. .. 0.0 6.4 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

756 450

600 1,114

800 420

728 398

839 366

535 374

538 354

523 332

226 298

255 297

319 290

386 278

408 262

342 247

346 236

390 224

45 149

40 148

96 146

162 142

182 136

165 129

164 123

171 117

180 149

216 149

223 143

224 136

227 127

178 118

182 112

219 106

530 152

344 817

480 131

342 120

431 104

193 126

192 118

133 108

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed debt and short-term debt for 2004 are based on the aggregate data reported by the country. Data includes old debt incurred by Kosovo and Montenegro prior to 2000. Debt reduction: The debt reduction of 1988–91 consisted of buybacks of $128 million in 1988, $610 million in 1989, $1.5 billion in 1990, and $554 million in 1991. Other: In 1992 the former Yugoslavia split into several republics; information on debt outstanding by the various republics are shown in the country pages for Croatia and FYR Macedonia. Debt includes the old debt of Kosovo incurred prior to 1999.

341

SEYCHELLES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

97.2 73.2 73.2 0.0 0.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

183.1 137.1 137.1 0.0 0.0 46.0 1.2 0.6 0.7

199.6 186.5 186.5 0.0 0.0 13.1 2.1 0.8 1.3

395.4 310.9 310.9 0.0 0.0 84.5 5.5 5.5 0.0

501.6 401.7 401.7 0.0 0.0 99.9 8.9 8.8 0.0

534.7 427.2 427.2 0.0 0.0 107.5 16.5 15.0 1.5

547.9 439.0 439.0 0.0 0.0 108.9 35.9 33.9 2.0

614.8 513.5 513.5 0.0 0.0 101.3 45.6 40.3 5.3

0.0 0.0 0.0

9.3 7.1 2.1

20.8 9.3 11.5

22.2 22.2 0.0

65.7 28.5 37.2

86.8 51.0 35.8

115.3 94.8 20.5

108.0 94.5 13.5

19.2 19.2 0.0 5.3 5.3 0.0 18.9 5.0 4.1 2.3 0.0 1.8 14.8 9.4 7.6 0.0 1.8

13.2 13.2 0.0 12.7 12.7 0.0 10.7 10.2 9.0 5.5 0.0 3.6 1.6 21.7 18.2 0.0 3.6

17.1 17.1 0.0 15.8 15.8 0.0 -8.8 -10.0 8.0 7.2 0.0 0.8 -16.8 23.9 23.1 0.0 0.8

127.4 127.4 0.0 9.6 9.6 0.0 160.1 42.2 11.2 6.8 0.0 4.4 148.9 20.7 16.3 0.0 4.4

125.4 125.4 0.0 28.6 28.6 0.0 108.8 12.0 12.2 8.2 0.0 4.0 96.6 40.7 36.7 0.0 4.0

72.8 72.8 0.0 71.5 71.5 0.0 1.3 0.0 14.9 11.9 0.0 3.0 -13.5 86.4 83.4 0.0 3.0

56.0 56.0 0.0 64.6 64.6 0.0 -26.6 -18.0 14.7 12.7 0.0 2.0 -41.3 79.3 77.3 0.0 2.0

102.7 102.7 0.0 39.6 39.6 0.0 45.8 -17.3 12.2 9.9 0.0 2.3 33.6 51.8 49.5 0.0 2.3

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

38.8 13.9 11.6 0.0 13.4 4.8

32.1 0.5 20.0 0.0 11.6 10.3

54.4 1.2 46.0 0.0 7.2 8.8

153.1 117.9 24.0 0.0 11.2 3.5

165.4 96.8 59.0 0.0 9.6 3.6

66.6 1.3 61.0 0.0 4.3 4.3

52.0 -8.6 58.0 0.0 2.6 6.3

127.9 63.1 37.4 0.0 4.8 6.2

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

31.8 2.3 4.7

18.3 5.5 8.3

33.1 7.2 14.1

134.2 6.8 12.1

129.3 8.2 27.9

-19.1 11.9 73.9

13.4 12.7 25.9

101.8 9.9 16.2

575.1 498.2 0.0 543.9 43.8 -40.5

587.0 522.4 2.0 643.3 37.1 -117.9

630.3 552.1 2.0 677.5 69.8 -124.1

661.2 629.9 2.0 651.1 67.4 -13.1

671.0 636.9 2.0 672.9 34.6 -24.7

79.4 68.7 4.2 2.2 1.9 11.1 1.0 21.4 27.1 14.6

96.0 85.4 7.8 2.3 2.1 7.4 0.7 19.9 20.9 11.6

96.8 84.8 15.6 2.7 2.4 13.1 1.2 20.1 23.3 12.0

87.0 82.9 12.6 2.3 2.2 12.3 1.2 19.9 25.1 13.0

96.5 91.6 8.1 1.9 1.8 5.6 0.6 16.5 23.6 12.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

163.0 118.8 0.0 151.5 8.5 -19.2

355.4 240.6 8.0 264.6 16.6 -13.0

81.8 59.6 7.9 3.5 2.5 8.7 0.7 24.7 39.3 19.7

76.1 51.5 9.0 3.8 2.5 9.1 0.8 25.1 45.0 23.8

488.6 344.8 1.0 350.0 27.1 1.4

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

57.9 40.9 6.9 2.3 1.6 13.6 0.9 6.6 46.4 31.7

342

SEYCHELLES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

73.2 73.2 57.5 19.2 6.6 38.4 31.6 15.7 0.0 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

137.1 137.1 117.8 43.6 19.8 74.2 62.6 19.3 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

186.5 186.5 150.2 63.3 23.6 86.9 69.0 36.3 0.0 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

310.9 310.9 160.7 57.6 23.7 103.1 83.3 150.1 0.0 138.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

401.7 401.7 161.0 58.4 24.3 102.6 80.6 240.7 0.0 230.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

427.2 427.2 201.9 64.3 25.7 137.6 98.8 225.3 0.0 191.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

439.0 439.0 249.7 71.4 27.7 178.2 110.0 189.3 0.0 142.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

513.5 513.5 256.8 74.7 28.9 182.2 116.4 256.7 0.0 213.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 0.0 73.2 0.0

5.8 0.0 137.1 0.0

5.4 0.0 186.5 0.0

2.9 0.0 310.9 0.0

2.3 0.0 401.7 0.0

2.5 0.0 427.2 0.0

2.7 0.0 439.0 0.0

2.7 0.0 513.5 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

19.2 19.2 12.0 6.2 1.7 5.9 5.8 7.1 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.2 13.2 11.6 3.4 1.2 8.2 4.1 1.6 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.1 17.1 16.8 9.4 0.9 7.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

127.4 127.4 19.1 7.4 3.3 11.6 11.4 108.4 0.0 108.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

125.4 125.4 8.2 3.8 1.0 4.4 0.9 117.2 0.0 117.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

72.8 72.8 19.5 1.7 0.2 17.9 3.6 53.3 0.0 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

56.0 56.0 33.6 1.5 1.1 32.1 2.5 22.4 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

102.7 102.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 101.8 0.0 101.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 0.0

1.4 0.0

1.3 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

5.3 5.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 0.7 2.2 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.7 12.7 4.8 2.9 0.3 2.0 1.8 7.9 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.8 15.8 7.2 4.1 0.8 3.2 2.8 8.6 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.6 9.6 5.0 2.4 0.3 2.7 1.6 4.6 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

28.6 28.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 1.8 1.6 26.0 0.0 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

71.5 71.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.0 0.9 69.9 0.0 69.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

64.6 64.6 5.5 0.3 0.0 5.2 1.4 59.1 0.0 53.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

39.6 39.6 4.7 0.4 0.3 4.2 0.1 34.9 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.8 0.0

0.7 0.0

0.4 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.3 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.5 5.5 3.5 2.5 0.3 1.1 0.9 1.9 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.2 7.2 4.8 3.6 0.5 1.2 1.1 2.4 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.8 6.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.8 4.8 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.2 8.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 7.5 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.9 11.9 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 10.7 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.7 12.7 3.0 0.2 0.1 2.8 0.3 9.6 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 9.9 3.0 0.5 0.3 2.5 0.1 7.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.4 0.0

0.4 0.0

0.2 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0

343

SEYCHELLES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 20.7 2.6 23.7

.. 0.0 16.8 7.2 8.5

.. 0.0 7.7 5.9 14.0

.. 1.5 4.6 3.2 53.8

11.8 2.2 3.5 2.2 61.6

13.3 2.0 3.6 2.6 58.3

16.2 2.1 3.9 2.8 53.7

15.1 1.0 3.6 2.6 59.1

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 26.7 23.9 -1.6 141.1 106.2 18.9 10.7 -8.8 160.1 108.8 5.1 9.8 6.1 -5.6 1.0 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

33.1 1.3 13.9

13.2 -26.6 9.4

66.9 45.8 7.3

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.7 16.1 4.0 13.5

5.4 19.1 8.4 35.0

4.3 18.2 4.7 33.1

7.7 7.0 1.0 8.0

7.5 8.2 2.1 9.5

6.8 7.1 0.9 9.4

4.1 10.1 1.6 21.6

8.6 5.7 0.7 3.0

7.6 18.4 4.7 14.8

4.9 20.4 9.0 38.2

4.3 18.2 4.7 33.1

3.6 15.0 2.8 33.9

6.2 9.1 2.5 17.6

5.8 12.3 2.0 19.3

4.3 21.2 6.2 39.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 5.6 0.6 6.6

4.1 6.8 0.3 16.4

8.6 5.7 0.7 3.0

7.9 11.5 0.0 8.3 7.5 10.5 4.8 0.0 5.6 8.1 2.5 0.9 0.0 0.7 2.1 10.3 -2.5 0.0 3.7 9.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

268.3 22.5

102.5 14.4

87.6 10.1

31.3 5.7

25.1 4.4

20.8 3.2

13.0 2.3

10.3 1.7

38.8 7.4

33.5 6.2

24.5 5.2

22.9 4.2

16.7 3.3

14.4 2.6

10.0 1.9

7.4 1.5

24.5 4.5

24.5 3.8

16.1 3.1

14.9 2.4

10.0 1.8

8.3 1.3

4.3 1.0

4.0 0.7

14.3 2.8

9.0 2.4

8.4 2.1

8.0 1.8

6.7 1.5

6.1 1.3

5.7 1.0

3.4 0.8

229.5 15.2

69.0 8.2

63.1 4.8

8.4 1.5

8.4 1.1

6.4 0.6

3.0 0.4

2.9 0.2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

344

SIERRA LEONE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

711 582 582 0 101 28 28 19 10

1,197 940 940 0 108 148 148 83 66

1,250 1,058 1,058 0 165 27 7 7 0

1,229 1,006 1,006 0 174 49 42 41 1

1,295 1,121 1,121 0 152 22 8 8 0

1,443 1,260 1,260 0 169 13 4 4 0

1,606 1,418 1,418 0 169 20 8 5 2

1,723 1,520 1,520 0 196 7 7 5 2

57 32 25

547 173 374

108 19 88

68 64 4

33 33 0

29 29 0

44 34 10

59 49 10

26 26 0 15 9 6 11 0 9 6 3 0 2 24 15 8 0

24 24 0 12 7 5 12 0 9 9 0 0 3 21 16 5 0

115 95 20 60 57 4 55 0 23 21 1 1 32 83 77 4 1

91 77 14 35 10 25 57 1 12 9 3 0 45 47 19 28 0

143 83 60 85 9 75 65 7 11 8 3 0 54 96 17 78 0

102 66 36 13 12 1 85 -5 9 8 1 1 76 22 20 2 1

63 44 20 15 13 1 51 3 11 9 1 0 40 25 23 2 0

122 80 41 14 13 1 96 -12 13 12 1 0 83 27 24 2 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

57 17 -31 0 72 22

78 17 32 0 30 28

132 38 7 0 87 24

222 67 39 0 116 23

276 74 10 0 192 32

279 54 2 0 223 45

259 30 3 0 225 69

334 68 26 0 261 38

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

72 6 -20

19 9 51

100 21 11

212 9 2

268 8 1

270 8 2

240 9 9

290 12 32

614 70 7 262 49 -112

779 92 7 291 51 -98

907 124 22 357 85 -73

963 204 26 421 67 -80

1,048 244 25 413 125 -74

1,765.0 199.9 67.1 17.0 1.9 4.0 2.3 4.0 66.4 46.9

1,413.2 166.2 104.6 12.2 1.4 4.0 2.1 1.7 72.7 47.7

1,164.4 159.0 17.5 7.2 1.0 5.9 2.8 0.9 73.9 50.1

786.3 166.8 12.4 5.2 1.1 4.1 1.9 1.2 74.5 51.1

705.5 164.4 10.9 5.1 1.2 7.3 3.6 0.4 76.8 53.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

828 160 0 176 11 3

580 210 0 287 5 -69

444.0 85.8 14.7 5.3 1.0 1.5 0.7 4.0 28.8 17.4

568.8 206.4 10.1 4.4 1.6 0.5 0.2 12.4 26.2 15.2

847 153 24 290 35 -118

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

818.4 147.6 54.3 14.9 2.7 2.8 1.4 2.2 56.1 34.7

345

SIERRA LEONE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

582 582 295 124 107 172 97 286 0 17 0 0 0

940 940 508 182 170 327 143 431 0 17 0 0 0

1,058 1,058 966 434 412 532 289 92 0 0 0 0 0

1,006 1,006 1,000 576 548 424 268 5 0 0 0 0 0

1,121 1,121 1,120 617 602 502 340 1 0 0 0 0 0

1,260 1,260 1,259 722 701 536 366 1 0 0 0 0 0

1,418 1,418 1,405 821 789 584 407 12 0 0 0 0 0

1,520 1,520 1,508 922 890 585 433 12 0 0 0 0 0

9 59 375 207

11 81 608 332

3 231 974 84

0 354 1,006 0

0 407 1,121 0

0 479 1,260 0

0 543 1,418 0

0 591 1,520 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

26 26 26 18 18 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 20 1 1 19 19 4 0 0 0 0 0

95 95 95 87 86 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

77 77 77 74 74 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

83 83 83 83 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

66 66 66 63 63 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

44 44 44 41 36 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

80 80 80 77 77 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 9

0 0

0 44

0 70

0 69

0 44

0 24

0 31

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

9 9 5 1 0 5 4 4 0 1 0 0 0

7 7 7 2 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

57 57 28 4 3 25 4 28 0 28 0 0 0

10 10 10 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 5 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 5 4 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

13 13 13 2 2 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

1 2

0 2

0 2

0 1

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

6 6 1 1 1 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 0

9 9 4 2 1 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0

21 21 21 3 2 18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 4 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 3 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

8 8 8 3 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 3 3 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 12 5 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 2

0 2

0 3

0 1

0 2

0 3

346

SIERRA LEONE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 5.0 2.2 6.2 59.0

.. 4.8 1.4 5.3 54.9

.. 7.4 0.5 2.8 42.5

.. 6.8 0.6 2.2 46.3

15.1 8.8 0.4 1.7 50.0

15.2 8.6 0.3 1.7 49.7

15.8 8.7 0.4 1.7 49.0

14.3 8.6 0.4 1.7 49.1

0 0 31 0 168 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0 34 0 0 25 0 34 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 23 0 0 4 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 26 0 0 119 0 19 0 0 222 0 0 0 0 29 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 95 107 -308 -70 66 11 12 55 57 65 30 44 18 -47 -35 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

15 0 9 9 0 5 5 0 11 6 0 0

8 0 4 4 0 4 4 0 19 6 0 0

17 0 6 6 0 5 5 0 29 2 0 0

148 85 92

164 51 110

116 96 49

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.2 23.9 8.2 59.0

2.3 26.6 8.9 60.9

0.6 32.6 7.8 70.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.7 39.5 11.5 81.3

1.4 35.8 7.6 69.9

0.7 39.0 9.7 79.3

0.8 40.9 8.0 73.9

1.2 23.9 8.2 59.0

1.1 30.6 10.2 71.2

0.6 32.6 7.8 70.4

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.6

0.7 39.5 11.5 81.3

1.4 35.8 7.6 69.9

0.7 39.0 9.7 79.3

0.8 40.9 8.0 73.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

59 28

54 27

49 26

51 25

52 23

53 22

54 21

56 19

58 28

54 27

49 26

51 25

52 23

53 22

54 20

55 19

39 21

33 20

28 18

29 17

29 16

28 15

28 13

28 12

19 8

21 8

21 8

22 8

23 7

25 7

26 7

27 7

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Major revisions to the data this year were made, based on information provided by the country. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

347

SLOVAK REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

5,744 3,573 3,488 85 457 1,714 0 0 0

12,140 9,725 6,304 3,421 0 2,415 0 0 0

11,154 8,081 5,531 2,550 0 3,073 0 0 0

13,112 8,875 4,295 4,580 0 4,237 0 0 0

18,172 10,117 4,508 5,609 0 8,056 21 0 21

22,068 11,603 5,163 6,440 0 10,465 17 0 17

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

244 0 244

36 0 36

42 0 42

140 0 140

95 0 95

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,013 1,013 0 862 662 201 629 478 404 282 32 90 224 1,267 944 233 90

2,004 2,004 0 2,022 1,895 127 -309 -291 768 569 6 194 -1,077 2,790 2,464 133 194

726 726 0 1,833 1,833 0 -449 658 813 687 0 127 -1,262 2,646 2,519 0 127

3,861 3,861 0 2,400 2,400 0 1,632 171 1,011 909 0 102 621 3,411 3,309 0 102

3,537 3,537 0 2,966 2,966 0 2,883 2,312 652 516 0 136 2,231 3,618 3,482 0 136

5,047 5,047 0 4,133 4,133 0 3,328 2,413 919 590 0 329 2,408 5,052 4,723 0 329

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

585 352 236 -16 14 68

2,045 109 1,925 -53 63 16

555 -1,107 1,584 0 78 17

5,688 1,462 4,094 10 122 29

1,419 571 669 59 120 31

2,291 914 1,122 60 184 29

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

303 282 0

1,433 569 43

-263 687 0

4,625 909 154

725 516 178

1,535 590 0

20,575 15,476 24 17,429 4,453 ..

23,778 17,614 24 19,767 9,196 -1,955

32,545 26,148 425 26,675 12,149 -282

40,685 .. 425 .. 14,912 ..

72.1 54.2 17.1 5.3 4.0 39.9 3.1 27.6 2.4 6.4

74.4 55.1 19.4 5.7 4.3 70.1 5.6 32.3 2.0 6.1

69.5 55.8 13.8 2.5 2.0 66.9 5.5 44.3 0.4 5.5

.. 54.2 .. .. 2.3 67.6 .. 47.4 0.3 4.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

19,389 11,219 26 10,922 3,863 390

19,865 14,405 18 15,219 4,376 -694

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

51.2 29.6 11.3 3.6 2.1 67.3 4.2 29.8 1.6 7.7

348

84.3 61.1 19.4 5.3 3.9 36.0 3.5 19.9 2.7 5.3

SLOVAK REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,573 3,488 617 442 0 175 91 2,871 581 399 85 0 85

9,725 6,304 1,136 649 0 487 323 5,168 2,780 900 3,421 0 3,421

8,081 5,531 1,131 714 0 417 268 4,400 2,379 694 2,550 0 2,550

8,875 4,295 1,213 802 0 411 262 3,082 2,512 478 4,580 0 4,580

10,117 4,508 1,238 995 0 243 79 3,270 2,814 448 5,609 0 5,609

11,603 5,163 1,211 987 7 224 59 3,952 3,701 245 6,440 0 6,440

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

263 0 3,361 212

184 0 6,199 3,526

205 0 5,457 2,623

204 0 4,219 4,657

293 0 4,414 5,703

401 0 5,054 6,550

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,013 945 161 84 0 78 77 784 0 67 68 0 68

2,004 1,013 88 51 0 37 0 925 748 177 991 0 991

726 244 152 145 0 7 0 92 0 92 481 0 481

3,861 36 36 33 0 3 1 0 0 0 3,825 0 3,825

3,537 1,043 153 126 0 27 9 890 848 42 2,493 0 2,493

5,047 1,633 345 301 6 44 21 1,288 1,243 45 3,414 0 3,414

.. ..

.. ..

8 0

1 0

54 0

0 0

81 0

104 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

662 658 54 42 0 13 0 604 0 194 3 0 3

1,895 567 118 95 0 23 12 449 199 95 1,327 0 1,327

1,833 624 92 51 0 41 15 532 283 88 1,208 0 1,208

2,400 597 114 54 0 60 32 483 189 266 1,803 0 1,803

2,966 1,502 318 79 0 239 207 1,184 973 121 1,464 0 1,464

4,133 1,339 457 381 0 76 42 882 622 259 2,794 0 2,794

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

23 0

22 0

22 0

24 0

29 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

282 282 38 29 0 8 2 244 53 51 1 0 1

569 317 58 38 0 20 11 259 160 47 252 0 252

687 337 81 38 0 44 9 256 168 43 349 0 349

909 281 56 37 0 19 10 224 187 28 628 0 628

516 296 58 44 0 14 6 238 212 17 221 0 221

590 217 45 35 0 9 2 173 161 11 372 0 372

.. ..

.. ..

17 0

11 0

10 0

9 0

10 0

11 0

349

SLOVAK REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.6 0.1 0.1 1.5

.. 8.7 0.0 0.0 17.2

47.5 6.3 0.0 0.0 17.1

66.3 8.2 0.0 0.0 17.1

84.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 8.4

89.6 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.8

.. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 986 -435 -987 .. .. 629 -309 -449 .. .. 66 -235 -229 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,958 1,632 549

5,060 2,883 664

3,895 3,328 264

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.8 8.8 3.3 19.0

7.1 8.0 6.9 13.1

5.2 11.8 4.3 23.4

4.6 20.0 6.1 35.3

1.6 4.6 2.3 20.2

4.5 10.2 10.1 33.5

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

4.1 14.6 3.8 32.6

7.4 11.1 3.8 12.1

5.0 15.6 5.3 29.8

4.6 20.0 6.1 35.3

1.4 16.0 3.6 45.2

4.5 14.9 13.9 40.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 2.0 2.0 14.6

4.5 9.7 9.7 32.8

.. .. 7.3 7.1 5.7 .. .. 3.8 7.7 1.5 .. .. 2.9 7.2 1.5 .. .. 7.3 13.2 5.7 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1,930 473

1,120 419

1,059 369

758 319

698 292

1,348 267

637 192

773 166

138 46

152 43

168 39

151 34

118 29

109 26

88 22

78 20

39 9

42 8

40 6

32 5

18 4

15 3

9 3

7 3

99 37

110 36

129 33

120 29

99 25

94 22

79 20

72 17

1,792 427

968 376

890 330

607 285

580 263

1,239 241

549 170

694 146

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are from the Annual Reports of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS). Other: The Slovak Republic became a member of the World Bank in 1993. Data for 1985–92 are based on preliminary information on the succession of the former Czechoslovakia (effective January 1, 1993).

350

SOLOMON ISLANDS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

65.5 53.5 53.5 0.0 3.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

120.5 103.2 103.2 0.0 0.7 16.6 0.1 0.1 0.0

158.7 149.1 100.3 48.8 0.0 9.7 8.4 0.5 8.0

155.4 152.1 120.7 31.5 0.0 3.2 1.8 0.4 1.4

163.2 158.8 130.9 28.0 0.0 4.4 2.4 0.9 1.5

179.8 175.5 150.2 25.3 0.0 4.3 3.9 2.3 1.6

178.0 169.9 151.3 18.6 0.0 8.1 6.7 1.9 4.8

176.0 166.3 155.3 11.0 0.0 9.8 9.8 1.9 7.8

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0

11.4 1.5 9.9

3.3 1.0 2.3

4.8 2.1 2.8

6.0 2.8 3.2

7.4 3.8 3.6

8.8 5.3 3.5

13.5 13.5 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.4 17.2 5.0 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.5 14.7 3.8 2.6 0.6 0.5

5.2 5.2 0.0 7.9 7.0 0.8 13.8 16.5 3.7 3.1 0.1 0.5 10.1 11.6 10.1 1.0 0.5

11.8 11.8 0.0 6.5 6.5 0.0 4.5 -0.8 1.6 1.5 0.0 0.1 3.0 8.1 8.0 0.0 0.1

3.4 3.4 0.0 6.2 6.2 0.0 -4.4 -1.5 2.9 2.7 0.0 0.1 -7.3 9.1 9.0 0.0 0.1

17.6 17.6 0.0 4.5 4.5 0.0 13.7 0.5 2.6 2.5 0.0 0.1 11.1 7.1 7.0 0.0 0.1

10.3 10.3 0.0 3.3 3.3 0.0 5.4 -1.6 2.4 2.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.7 5.7 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 -4.2 0.9 3.9 3.9 0.0 0.0 -8.1 9.4 9.4 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 0.0 10.4 10.4 0.0 -9.6 -1.3 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 -15.8 16.6 16.6 0.0 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

18.7 12.6 0.7 0.0 5.5 9.2

28.3 -1.8 10.0 0.0 20.2 19.5

27.9 5.3 2.0 0.0 20.6 26.0

47.2 -2.9 1.4 0.0 48.7 21.0

44.5 13.1 -11.6 0.0 43.0 18.9

17.8 6.9 -1.4 0.0 12.4 17.2

13.4 -5.1 -2.0 0.0 20.5 62.8

12.0 -8.2 -5.0 0.0 25.2 97.7

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

12.5 1.7 4.5

23.2 3.1 2.0

19.6 1.5 6.8

44.4 2.7 0.0

42.0 2.5 0.0

15.5 2.3 0.0

9.5 3.9 0.0

5.7 6.2 0.0

298.5 .. 2.0 .. 32.0 ..

274.3 .. 2.0 .. 19.3 ..

220.5 .. 2.0 .. 18.2 ..

222.7 .. 2.0 .. 37.2 ..

255.8 .. 2.0 .. 80.6 ..

.. 52.0 .. .. 1.0 20.6 .. 2.1 74.3 64.6

.. 59.5 .. .. 0.9 11.9 .. 2.7 77.1 58.6

.. 81.6 .. .. 1.1 10.1 .. 2.4 80.6 58.3

.. 79.9 .. .. 1.7 20.9 .. 4.5 81.9 60.3

.. 68.8 .. .. 2.4 45.8 .. 5.5 85.1 63.5

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

153.6 83.9 0.0 123.7 35.6 -27.8

207.3 97.8 0.0 163.6 17.6 -27.8

78.1 42.7 4.5 2.9 1.6 54.3 3.5 13.7 61.3 43.6

123.2 58.1 11.8 3.8 1.8 14.6 1.3 13.8 64.1 51.0

320.7 211.3 0.0 239.4 15.9 8.3

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

75.1 49.5 3.8 0.7 0.5 10.0 0.8 6.1 54.3 50.1

351

SOLOMON ISLANDS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

53.5 53.5 42.5 28.5 28.5 14.0 11.7 11.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

103.2 103.2 89.1 61.5 61.5 27.7 15.8 14.1 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

149.1 100.3 95.1 79.5 78.2 15.6 8.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 48.8 0.0 48.8

152.1 120.7 117.3 100.4 99.5 16.9 16.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 31.5 0.0 31.5

158.8 130.9 127.5 95.6 94.8 31.8 31.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 28.0 0.0 28.0

175.5 150.2 145.9 104.8 103.8 41.1 41.1 4.2 0.0 0.0 25.3 0.0 25.3

169.9 151.3 147.0 107.3 106.0 39.8 39.8 4.2 0.0 0.0 18.6 0.0 18.6

166.3 155.3 151.1 111.8 110.5 39.3 39.3 4.2 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.0 11.0

0.0 5.3 53.5 0.0

0.0 16.6 103.2 0.0

0.0 25.9 100.3 48.8

0.0 38.4 120.7 31.5

0.0 37.9 130.9 28.0

0.0 40.8 150.2 25.3

0.0 44.3 151.3 18.6

0.0 46.8 155.3 11.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

13.5 13.5 7.5 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.1 6.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.8 9.1 4.8 4.8 3.5 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 2.8

3.4 3.4 3.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.6 17.6 17.6 1.6 1.6 16.1 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.3 10.3 10.3 0.3 0.3 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.6

0.0 2.5

0.0 3.2

0.0 0.6

0.0 1.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.2

0.0 1.3

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.0 7.0 3.9 0.5 0.5 3.4 1.4 3.1 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.5 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 4.7

6.2 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 3.5

4.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 3.5

3.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 2.6

5.5 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 2.6

10.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 7.8

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.5

0.0 0.9

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.7 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6

2.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 1.9

2.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 1.7

2.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.6

3.9 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.4

6.2 2.2 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 4.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.4

352

SOLOMON ISLANDS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 22.2 0.0 57.7

.. 4.8 13.1 0.0 52.0

.. 3.8 6.4 0.0 53.9

.. 3.4 2.9 0.0 67.1

4.9 2.7 2.3 0.0 71.5

5.1 2.6 1.2 0.0 72.9

6.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 73.8

6.4 2.9 0.0 0.0 73.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 21.5 20.5 3.8 -9.6 7.9 17.2 13.8 4.5 -4.4 13.7 3.4 6.6 -0.5 -7.0 -5.3 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.6 5.4 8.1

-1.9 -4.2 11.5

-1.9 -9.6 4.5

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.3 29.2 6.2 40.0

2.2 17.7 11.5 56.9

4.9 15.9 2.6 29.4

0.8 40.0 10.5 80.9

2.9 26.6 4.9 51.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 48.0 9.7 81.0

2.2 17.7 11.5 56.9

3.4 18.9 3.6 40.8

0.8 40.0 10.5 80.9

2.9 26.6 4.9 51.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.5 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 12.0 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

10.7 2.5

6.5 2.3

7.1 2.3

9.3 2.4

7.7 2.4

8.2 2.3

8.3 2.2

8.0 2.0

5.5 2.2

5.4 2.1

5.6 2.1

8.5 2.1

6.9 2.2

7.4 2.1

7.5 1.9

7.4 1.8

2.4 1.3

2.4 1.2

2.4 1.2

2.4 1.1

2.4 1.0

2.4 0.9

2.4 0.8

2.4 0.8

3.1 0.9

3.0 0.9

3.2 0.9

6.1 1.1

4.5 1.2

5.0 1.2

5.1 1.1

5.0 1.1

5.2 0.3

1.1 0.2

1.5 0.2

0.8 0.3

0.8 0.2

0.8 0.2

0.8 0.2

0.6 0.2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

353

SOMALIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,639 1,412 1,412 0 154 73 38 35 3

2,370 1,926 1,926 0 159 285 255 249 5

2,678 1,961 1,961 0 166 551 521 504 17

2,562 1,825 1,825 0 146 591 569 554 15

2,563 1,795 1,795 0 141 627 603 589 14

2,689 1,860 1,860 0 152 677 644 628 15

2,838 1,936 1,936 0 166 735 702 686 17

2,849 1,949 1,949 0 174 726 726 709 17

150 140 9

674 646 28

1,135 1,098 37

1,241 1,208 33

1,295 1,263 32

1,370 1,336 34

1,451 1,415 36

1,483 1,446 37

149 113 35 11 2 9 123 -14 9 3 6 1 114 20 5 14 1

46 46 0 5 3 3 58 18 5 4 1 0 53 11 7 4 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 -7 -7 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 -33 -33 0 0 0 0 -33 0 0 0 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

224 111 -1 0 113 132

372 43 6 0 323 94

150 0 1 0 149 43

87 0 0 0 86 19

120 0 0 0 120 32

178 0 0 0 178 17

155 0 0 0 155 22

192 0 9 0 183 11

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

221 3 0

368 4 0

150 0 0

87 0 0

120 0 0

178 0 0

155 0 0

192 0 0

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 23.1 58.1 27.7

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 24.5 57.0 27.0

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 25.2 56.3 27.1

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 25.9 55.4 27.2

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 25.5 55.4 27.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

827 128 0 454 9 -103

835 .. 0 .. .. ..

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

1,284.7 198.1 15.7 6.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 4.5 64.7 25.0

.. 283.9 .. .. 0.6 .. .. 12.0 65.7 31.8

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 20.6 59.6 29.4

354

SOMALIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,412 1,412 1,328 410 397 917 665 84 0 0 0 0 0

1,926 1,926 1,889 754 735 1,136 822 37 0 0 0 0 0

1,961 1,961 1,924 786 767 1,138 828 37 0 0 0 0 0

1,825 1,825 1,792 709 693 1,083 794 33 0 0 0 0 0

1,795 1,795 1,763 692 676 1,071 784 32 0 0 0 0 0

1,860 1,860 1,826 727 710 1,099 803 34 0 0 0 0 0

1,936 1,936 1,900 771 752 1,129 822 36 0 0 0 0 0

1,949 1,949 1,912 793 772 1,119 806 37 0 0 0 0 0

0 186 1,400 12

0 419 1,926 0

0 432 1,961 0

0 396 1,825 0

0 386 1,795 0

0 405 1,860 0

0 431 1,936 0

0 444 1,949 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

113 113 107 63 59 43 40 7 0 0 0 0 0

46 46 46 46 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 39

0 35

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 3

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

355

SOMALIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.5 0.0 0.0 49.8

.. 2.4 0.2 0.0 50.5

.. 3.1 0.1 0.0 50.2

.. 3.0 0.1 0.0 52.0

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

126 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 65 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 11 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 141 211 62 -44 123 58 0 -7 14 30 -14 -36 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

4.4 2.6 0.1 0.0 52.3

5.0 2.8 0.1 0.0 51.5

5.8 3.0 0.1 0.0 50.8

6.2 3.1 0.2 0.0 51.2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 2 -24

126 9 59

149 0 62

11 -33 8

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

1.6 41.1 9.1 71.0

0.8 46.1 10.3 81.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 41.1 9.1 71.0

0.8 46.1 10.3 81.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

44 9

30 9

32 8

32 7

32 7

33 6

32 6

30 5

44 9

30 9

32 8

32 7

32 7

33 6

32 6

30 5

14 5

14 5

14 4

13 4

13 3

13 3

12 2

10 2

30 4

16 4

18 4

19 4

19 4

20 3

20 3

20 3

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are estimates based on the original terms of the loans. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

356

SOUTH AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. 0 .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. 0 .. .. .. ..

25,358 14,772 9,837 4,935 913 9,673 0 0 0

24,861 15,308 9,088 6,220 0 9,553 0 0 0

24,050 15,695 7,941 7,754 0 8,355 0 0 0

25,041 17,641 9,427 8,213 0 7,400 0 0 0

27,807 20,448 9,120 11,328 0 7,359 0 0 0

28,500 20,591 9,793 10,798 0 7,909 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

.. .. 0 .. .. 0 .. .. .. .. 0 .. .. .. .. 0 ..

.. .. 0 .. .. 0 .. .. .. .. 0 .. .. .. .. 0 ..

3,549 3,549 0 2,070 2,070 0 3,412 1,934 1,320 855 50 415 2,092 3,391 2,925 50 415

3,611 3,611 0 2,609 2,609 0 1,274 272 1,252 743 0 509 22 3,861 3,352 0 509

3,603 3,603 0 3,172 3,172 0 -767 -1,198 1,183 860 0 322 -1,950 4,355 4,032 0 322

4,033 4,033 0 3,596 3,596 0 -518 -955 1,096 859 0 236 -1,614 4,691 4,455 0 236

5,664 5,664 0 2,951 2,951 0 2,671 -41 1,359 1,138 0 221 1,312 4,310 4,090 0 221

3,108 3,108 0 2,490 2,490 0 1,169 550 1,336 1,086 0 250 -167 3,825 3,575 0 250

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

5,796 1,478 1,248 2,914 156 214

6,359 1,002 969 4,169 219 225

6,950 431 7,270 -962 211 221

1,068 437 735 -388 284 221

4,474 2,712 770 685 306 265

8,215 619 585 6,661 351 241

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

4,406 855 535

3,287 743 2,329

3,208 860 2,882

-2,157 859 2,365

-667 1,138 4,003

3,197 1,086 3,933

114,742 38,194 297 37,303 7,627 153

107,729 38,622 288 37,335 7,817 731

160,838 48,953 435 50,740 8,154 -2,605

208,447 59,939 521 65,436 14,886 -6,982

63.0 21.0 11.4 3.1 1.0 31.7 2.5 34.7 0.0 0.5

64.8 23.2 12.1 2.8 1.0 31.2 2.5 29.6 0.0 0.5

56.8 17.3 8.8 2.8 0.8 29.3 1.9 26.5 0.0 0.8

47.5 13.7 6.4 2.2 0.6 52.2 2.7 27.8 0.0 0.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

148,238 35,538 105 37,386 4,464 -2,493

129,704 39,507 344 38,771 7,702 -191

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

71.4 17.1 9.5 3.7 0.9 17.6 1.4 38.1 0.0 0.0

357

62.9 19.2 9.8 3.2 1.0 31.0 2.4 38.4 0.0 0.6

SOUTH AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

14,772 9,837 0 0 0 0 0 9,837 2,454 3,978 4,935 350 4,585

15,308 9,088 145 145 0 0 0 8,943 4,749 1,973 6,220 1,110 5,110

15,695 7,941 122 122 0 0 0 7,819 4,847 839 7,754 2,307 5,447

17,641 9,427 129 129 0 0 0 9,298 6,903 813 8,213 3,573 4,640

20,448 9,120 212 212 0 0 0 8,909 7,187 487 11,328 8,180 3,148

20,591 9,793 263 263 0 0 0 9,530 7,360 1,081 10,798 8,766 2,031

0 0 .. ..

0 0 .. ..

0 0 9,837 4,935

3 0 8,054 7,254

7 0 7,137 8,558

12 0 8,623 9,018

16 0 8,638 11,811

23 0 9,633 10,958

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

3,549 3,199 0 0 0 0 0 3,199 391 830 350 350 0

3,611 1,597 91 91 0 0 0 1,506 765 420 2,014 712 1,302

3,603 1,603 4 4 0 0 0 1,599 1,222 0 2,000 1,250 750

4,033 2,479 7 7 0 0 0 2,472 2,472 0 1,554 1,554 0

5,664 1,490 76 76 0 0 0 1,414 1,414 0 4,174 4,174 0

3,108 1,969 49 49 0 0 0 1,920 1,000 920 1,139 764 375

0 0

0 0

0 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

3 0

7 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

2,070 1,168 0 0 0 0 0 1,168 10 719 902 0 902

2,609 1,627 0 0 0 0 0 1,627 284 949 982 0 982

3,172 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 2,000 489 904 1,172 45 1,127

3,596 1,068 3 3 0 0 0 1,066 489 26 2,527 350 2,177

2,951 1,459 7 7 0 0 0 1,452 778 326 1,492 0 1,492

2,490 853 12 12 0 0 0 841 370 326 1,637 145 1,492

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

855 597 0 0 0 0 0 597 188 245 258 0 258

743 546 1 1 0 0 0 545 275 130 196 27 169

860 558 12 12 0 0 0 546 307 106 302 84 218

859 513 3 3 0 0 0 510 372 18 347 147 200

1,138 606 7 7 0 0 0 598 499 13 533 338 195

1,086 582 10 10 0 0 0 572 494 7 504 354 150

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

1 0

1 0

358

SOUTH AFRICA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 3.0 0.0 0.0 90.6

.. 3.8 0.0 0.0 92.0

2.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 91.9

2.8 3.5 0.0 0.0 92.4

17.3 4.1 0.0 0.0 76.4

17.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.2

.. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 3,687 954 -811 .. .. 3,412 1,274 -767 .. .. 63 -70 -80 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

991 -518 77

2,767 2,671 95

693 1,169 135

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.4 14.3 1.8 21.3

6.1 9.9 2.4 16.2

5.9 11.9 4.2 21.4

6.8 10.7 7.2 17.4

5.3 10.0 10.0 28.4

4.0 7.3 4.8 20.3

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.9 12.3 4.0 20.2

3.8 16.1 4.9 37.7

1.7 9.8 2.9 36.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.0 12.7 3.8 41.8

.. .. 5.4 6.1 6.0 6.9 .. .. 14.3 9.8 11.6 10.7 .. .. 1.8 2.3 4.2 7.3 .. .. 21.3 16.0 20.4 17.2 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

5.3 10.0 10.0 28.4

4.1 6.9 4.9 19.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,861 956

2,166 788

2,575 661

2,045 575

464 505

786 483

261 444

1,137 395

19 8

28 8

30 8

32 7

42 7

42 6

40 5

38 4

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

19 8

28 8

30 8

32 7

42 7

42 6

40 5

38 4

3,843 948

2,138 780

2,545 653

2,013 567

422 498

745 477

222 439

1,099 391

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and short-term debt for 2004 are based on aggregate information provided by the authorities and World Bank staff estimates.

359

SRI LANKA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,540 2,937 2,839 99 397 206 0 0 0

5,863 5,049 4,947 102 410 405 11 0 11

8,395 7,264 7,175 90 595 535 35 0 35

9,157 8,312 7,944 368 161 685 112 14 98

8,555 7,889 7,500 389 214 451 94 12 82

9,546 8,729 8,400 329 310 507 99 10 90

10,238 9,374 9,106 268 393 471 0 0 0

10,887 10,061 9,765 296 294 531 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

42 3 39

216 28 188

187 22 165

202 23 179

0 0 0

0 0 0

452 452 0 164 111 53 299 12 156 116 24 16 143 320 228 77 16

545 485 61 214 167 47 331 0 170 122 21 27 161 384 289 69 27

671 671 0 280 246 34 385 -6 172 145 3 24 213 452 391 37 24

735 735 0 541 455 86 -24 -218 249 214 1 34 -273 789 669 87 34

670 539 132 521 450 71 -66 -215 229 209 3 17 -295 751 659 75 17

760 635 125 501 450 51 310 50 218 205 5 7 92 718 655 56 7

977 895 83 420 388 31 621 63 186 175 5 5 435 605 563 37 5

772 772 0 552 441 112 281 61 214 190 8 15 67 766 631 120 15

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

518 341 26 0 151 55

582 318 43 0 221 104

655 425 56 0 175 115

562 280 173 0 109 78

327 89 172 -35 100 77

450 185 197 -53 121 73

730 506 229 -143 138 97

656 332 233 -100 191 77

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

390 116 11

435 122 25

439 145 72

240 214 109

14 209 104

147 205 98

464 175 92

370 190 95

15,502 7,436 1,185 7,501 1,357 -215

16,300 7,330 1,309 7,407 1,705 -236

18,183 8,128 1,438 8,025 2,334 -71

19,224 9,004 1,590 9,468 2,205 -648

115.1 55.2 10.1 3.1 1.5 15.9 2.2 5.3 75.6 37.9

130.2 58.6 9.8 3.0 1.3 17.9 2.8 5.3 76.4 39.3

126.0 56.3 7.4 2.3 1.0 22.8 3.5 4.6 80.4 41.3

120.9 56.6 8.5 2.4 1.1 20.3 2.8 4.9 80.9 42.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

5,953 1,936 292 2,506 472 -418

7,865 2,786 401 3,224 447 -298

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

182.8 59.5 16.5 8.1 2.6 13.3 2.3 5.8 59.2 19.6

210.4 74.5 13.8 6.1 2.2 7.6 1.7 6.9 71.9 27.7

12,894 5,630 809 6,342 2,112 -770

15,283 7,670 1,166 8,554 1,131 -1,044

4. DEBT INDICATORS 149.1 65.1 8.0 3.1 1.3 25.2 4.0 6.4 75.8 34.0

360

119.4 59.9 10.3 3.2 1.6 12.4 1.6 7.5 74.2 37.3

SRI LANKA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,937 2,839 2,169 694 628 1,474 1,469 670 0 379 99 0 99

5,049 4,947 4,349 1,623 1,536 2,726 2,681 598 0 259 102 0 102

7,264 7,175 6,493 2,858 2,806 3,635 3,554 681 0 324 90 0 90

8,312 7,944 6,934 3,412 3,396 3,522 3,394 1,010 65 371 368 0 368

7,889 7,500 6,623 3,239 3,227 3,384 3,240 876 65 301 389 0 389

8,729 8,400 7,502 3,754 3,709 3,748 3,579 898 65 348 329 0 329

9,374 9,106 8,494 4,228 4,147 4,266 4,085 612 65 316 268 0 268

10,061 9,765 9,123 4,574 4,451 4,549 4,352 642 65 312 296 100 196

61 397 2,823 114

82 864 4,854 194

49 1,463 7,055 210

13 1,610 7,836 476

8 1,570 7,399 490

4 1,734 8,291 438

3 2,051 9,100 274

1 2,167 9,746 315

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

452 397 335 119 114 216 216 61 0 20 55 0 55

485 485 396 234 233 162 162 89 0 59 0 0 0

671 671 469 197 197 272 262 201 0 92 0 0 0

735 565 348 123 123 225 207 218 0 44 169 0 169

539 439 424 128 128 296 264 15 0 11 100 0 100

635 587 476 233 196 242 214 111 0 89 48 0 48

895 895 746 408 368 338 307 149 0 101 0 0 0

772 672 584 234 192 350 329 88 0 17 100 100 0

5 73

1 127

0 106

0 47

0 39

0 91

0 202

0 68

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

111 103 39 10 4 29 28 64 0 27 8 0 8

167 165 88 21 13 68 64 76 0 29 2 0 2

246 244 148 26 19 122 116 96 0 54 2 0 2

455 441 216 50 45 167 150 224 50 96 14 0 14

450 372 226 60 56 166 150 145 0 79 78 0 78

450 363 244 67 63 177 160 119 0 53 87 0 87

388 328 260 73 71 188 174 68 0 26 60 0 60

441 368 296 80 78 216 203 72 0 26 72 0 72

4 0

7 3

7 8

5 18

4 27

4 32

2 36

2 38

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

116 111 38 11 5 27 27 73 0 41 5 0 5

122 120 77 19 11 58 55 43 0 16 2 0 2

145 144 112 29 24 84 81 32 0 19 1 0 1

214 179 125 32 30 93 86 54 6 29 35 0 35

209 168 118 30 29 89 81 50 3 21 41 0 41

205 162 122 31 30 91 83 41 2 18 43 0 43

175 155 130 33 32 96 89 25 2 12 20 0 20

190 170 145 39 37 106 98 25 2 13 20 7 13

5 3

8 5

5 11

1 12

1 12

1 12

0 13

0 16

361

SRI LANKA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 14.2 2.4 0.9 51.3

.. 22.7 3.2 0.9 36.2

.. 28.6 1.8 0.4 35.9

.. 29.8 0.5 0.2 38.9

6.7 29.1 0.4 0.2 40.0

6.8 29.6 0.3 0.2 39.4

7.4 30.4 0.2 0.0 40.2

8.2 30.8 0.2 0.0 39.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 547 682 435 -658 -602 299 331 385 -24 -66 164 296 -42 -579 -554 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

991 310 631

693 621 834

648 281 353

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.2 36.0 9.1 58.3

1.8 34.8 9.5 69.3

3.6 25.5 6.8 47.9

4.3 22.5 5.3 39.9

2.7 28.1 6.5 53.3

1.9 28.1 7.5 60.9

1.9 26.9 8.0 59.8

1.4 29.7 7.5 65.2

3.1 36.2 9.2 59.3

1.4 36.4 10.1 73.4

3.3 29.7 8.3 55.4

2.4 32.0 8.5 60.9

2.7 29.8 7.7 56.8

1.9 29.0 7.8 62.1

1.6 31.9 9.3 68.5

1.4 31.3 7.9 67.6

10.4 8.0 4.8 6.6 2.8 2.1 22.7 9.9 11.2 10.4 20.3 13.0 3.0 1.6 1.9 1.3 0.7 3.5 -4.0 8.1 22.9 13.2 37.0 41.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

2.7 9.1 3.2 29.1

2.3 13.4 3.9 41.8

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

541 216

524 223

527 221

605 216

622 204

531 188

551 178

555 166

365 173

373 185

395 189

438 190

460 184

478 177

497 169

507 160

263 125

266 130

275 130

282 127

288 121

294 115

296 108

293 101

101 48

107 55

119 59

156 63

173 63

183 62

201 61

215 59

177 43

152 37

132 31

166 26

161 19

53 10

54 9

48 7

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

362

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

12.8 12.8 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

45.2 44.2 44.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

56.8 54.2 54.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 1.2 1.2 0.0

156.6 152.7 152.7 0.0 2.1 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.0

218.1 214.7 214.7 0.0 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

263.9 260.9 260.9 0.0 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.5 0.0

316.7 314.9 314.9 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.3

316.4 313.5 313.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.4 0.3 1.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.3 0.4

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 0.9 0.0

2.4 2.4 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0

7.3 7.3 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 5.8 0.0 1.5 1.4 0.0 0.1 4.3 3.0 2.9 0.0 0.1

5.6 5.6 0.0 4.8 4.8 0.0 0.3 -0.6 2.0 1.9 0.0 0.1 -1.7 6.8 6.6 0.0 0.1

32.1 32.1 0.0 12.8 12.8 0.0 18.9 -0.4 7.3 7.1 0.1 0.1 11.6 20.1 19.9 0.1 0.1

71.8 71.8 0.0 9.5 9.5 0.0 61.8 -0.5 11.9 11.8 0.1 0.0 49.9 21.4 21.3 0.1 0.0

59.7 59.7 0.0 21.4 20.4 1.1 38.8 0.4 17.9 17.8 0.1 0.0 20.9 39.3 38.2 1.1 0.0

66.5 66.5 0.0 23.5 22.4 1.1 43.0 0.0 21.0 20.9 0.0 0.0 22.0 44.5 43.3 1.2 0.0

12.2 12.2 0.0 24.3 24.3 0.0 -12.1 0.0 22.5 22.5 0.0 0.0 -34.6 46.8 46.7 0.0 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

11.6 1.9 8.0 0.0 1.7 1.2

56.8 5.8 49.0 0.0 2.0 2.2

21.7 0.9 20.0 0.0 0.8 2.3

117.1 19.3 96.0 0.0 1.8 0.6

155.6 62.3 88.0 0.0 5.3 1.1

127.3 39.4 80.0 0.0 8.0 0.6

111.5 44.1 67.3 0.0 0.2 0.1

49.8 -12.1 61.7 0.0 0.3 1.1

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

11.2 0.4 0.0

50.3 1.4 5.0

5.4 1.9 14.4

88.8 7.1 21.2

120.5 11.8 23.4

86.8 17.8 22.7

69.4 20.9 0.0

5.2 22.5 0.0

299.3 155.5 4.0 284.3 45.2 -66.2

304.6 158.7 4.0 280.7 56.4 -105.9

310.8 160.5 3.7 300.9 65.8 -124.0

325.3 124.2 3.7 238.1 64.8 -90.4

348.3 .. 3.7 .. 78.5 ..

100.7 52.3 12.9 4.7 2.4 28.9 1.9 1.1 59.1 34.4

137.5 71.6 13.5 7.5 3.9 25.9 2.4 0.6 44.9 28.9

164.4 84.9 24.5 11.1 5.8 24.9 2.6 0.7 43.6 31.5

255.1 97.4 35.9 16.9 6.4 20.5 3.3 0.6 36.6 29.1

.. 90.8 .. .. 6.5 24.8 .. 0.9 36.6 30.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

76.6 44.5 1.0 58.6 7.4 -6.7

154.5 102.8 19.0 140.1 16.3 -47.0

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

28.7 16.7 1.8 0.8 0.5 57.9 1.5 0.0 90.0 73.9

44.0 29.3 2.9 1.5 1.0 36.0 1.4 2.3 76.7 44.2

219.8 125.3 2.0 189.9 33.5 -45.5

4. DEBT INDICATORS 45.4 25.9 5.4 1.6 0.9 58.9 2.1 4.7 73.1 52.1

363

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

12.8 12.8 12.8 9.5 8.8 3.3 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

44.2 44.2 41.4 20.0 15.1 21.5 19.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

54.2 54.2 48.6 29.6 23.7 19.0 17.8 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

152.7 152.7 102.7 53.8 43.9 48.9 48.7 50.0 0.0 42.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

214.7 214.7 116.4 63.1 49.8 53.3 48.2 98.4 0.0 92.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

260.9 260.9 134.7 83.1 68.5 51.6 46.4 126.1 0.0 121.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

314.9 314.9 166.4 92.1 73.3 74.3 42.6 148.5 19.1 126.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

313.5 313.5 164.2 97.8 77.9 66.5 38.0 149.2 19.1 128.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 11.6 1.2

0.0 0.0 40.7 3.4

1.1 1.6 52.9 1.3

4.5 1.4 152.7 0.0

6.6 1.4 214.7 0.0

8.7 1.4 260.9 0.0

11.9 1.5 314.9 0.0

13.2 1.6 313.5 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.4 2.4 2.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.3 7.3 7.3 2.4 2.3 4.9 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.6 5.6 5.0 3.8 3.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

32.1 32.1 7.9 7.2 5.5 0.7 0.5 24.2 0.0 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

71.8 71.8 19.7 12.0 8.0 7.7 2.9 52.1 0.0 51.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

59.7 59.7 24.6 22.1 19.9 2.6 1.9 35.1 0.0 34.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

66.5 66.5 39.9 9.7 5.6 30.2 1.6 26.6 19.1 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.2 12.2 9.4 9.0 6.9 0.5 0.5 2.7 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.3 0.0

1.1 0.0

2.1 0.0

2.2 0.0

3.8 0.0

2.1 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.8 4.8 3.3 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.8 12.8 4.8 2.1 1.6 2.7 2.6 8.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.5 9.5 5.7 2.5 2.0 3.2 3.2 3.7 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.4 20.4 6.7 2.0 1.6 4.7 4.2 13.7 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

22.4 22.4 10.4 2.9 2.0 7.4 5.4 12.0 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

24.3 24.3 12.3 4.0 2.6 8.3 5.1 11.9 0.0 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.7 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.4 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.9 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 7.1 4.1 2.0 1.5 2.2 2.1 3.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.8 11.8 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 7.6 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.8 17.8 5.6 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.0 12.2 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.9 20.9 8.0 3.4 2.6 4.6 2.2 12.9 0.8 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

22.5 22.5 8.3 3.3 2.5 5.0 2.5 14.2 1.6 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.3 0.0

0.4 0.0

0.5 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.6 0.0

364

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 11.8 0.0 9.7

.. 0.0 16.3 0.0 37.8

.. 0.0 7.4 0.0 51.4

.. 0.0 1.5 0.0 79.5

2.4 0.0 1.0 0.0 80.5

1.7 0.0 0.8 0.0 82.2

1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 83.5

1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 84.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2.2 8.6 -1.4 18.6 61.5 1.9 5.8 0.3 18.9 61.8 0.4 1.3 0.1 -0.8 -0.4 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

45.8 38.8 1.7

52.8 43.0 1.6

-0.3 -12.1 1.7

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.0 15.2 5.5 35.7

4.0 31.7 7.5 41.5

3.7 19.1 5.2 41.2

5.9 13.0 2.7 19.3

6.5 13.0 3.2 17.0

5.3 12.8 4.4 25.4

7.0 12.2 5.9 17.0

1.5 20.6 4.9 56.6

4.0 15.2 5.5 35.7

4.5 38.0 9.0 46.1

3.7 19.1 5.2 41.2

4.8 16.5 4.5 31.0

4.0 18.0 4.1 36.6

2.3 17.6 4.4 47.0

6.1 12.5 1.9 20.9

1.5 20.6 4.9 56.6

0.0 2.0 0.0 7.0 7.1 7.3 0.0 5.8 0.0 9.7 11.7 9.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.1 2.9 4.4 0.0 22.5 0.0 8.3 12.2 11.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

8.3 11.7 11.7 11.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

25.7 17.1

26.6 15.8

28.0 14.4

38.0 12.3

28.0 10.8

25.7 9.3

29.6 7.9

33.7 5.4

12.5 6.5

13.2 6.2

15.3 5.8

16.5 5.4

16.6 4.8

17.4 4.1

17.2 3.5

16.3 2.8

7.6 3.7

7.6 3.2

7.6 2.8

8.1 2.5

8.1 2.0

8.1 1.6

8.0 1.1

7.1 0.7

4.9 2.8

5.6 2.9

7.7 3.0

8.5 2.9

8.5 2.8

9.4 2.6

9.2 2.3

9.2 2.1

13.3 10.6

13.4 9.6

12.7 8.7

21.5 6.9

11.4 6.0

8.3 5.2

12.3 4.5

17.4 2.6

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

365

ST. LUCIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

23.1 23.1 23.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

79.2 72.1 72.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.8 0.8 0.0

128.3 111.3 111.3 0.0 0.0 16.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

235.3 167.6 167.6 0.0 0.0 67.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

235.7 166.0 166.0 0.0 0.0 69.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

414.9 210.7 210.7 0.0 0.0 204.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

368.3 235.0 235.0 0.0 0.0 133.3 1.3 1.2 0.1

413.3 256.7 256.7 0.0 0.0 156.6 2.6 1.8 0.8

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.0

1.1 1.1 0.0

4.0 4.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.0

8.0 8.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 0.0 7.0 2.2 3.1 2.8 0.0 0.3 3.8 6.3 6.0 0.0 0.3

11.5 11.5 0.0 6.2 6.2 0.0 12.3 6.9 5.7 4.8 0.0 0.9 6.6 11.9 10.9 0.0 0.9

50.9 50.9 0.0 20.9 20.9 0.0 42.5 12.5 10.3 7.5 0.0 2.8 32.2 31.2 28.4 0.0 2.8

16.7 16.7 0.0 13.9 13.9 0.0 4.7 2.0 11.5 9.0 0.0 2.5 -6.7 25.4 22.8 0.0 2.5

50.1 50.1 0.0 9.4 9.4 0.0 175.2 134.5 16.7 8.7 0.0 8.0 158.4 26.2 18.2 0.0 8.0

33.1 33.1 0.0 15.6 15.6 0.0 -54.8 -72.2 17.0 12.0 0.0 5.0 -71.7 32.6 27.6 0.0 5.0

28.6 28.6 0.0 9.8 9.8 0.0 40.8 22.0 16.6 11.4 0.0 5.2 24.2 26.4 21.2 0.0 5.2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

21.2 3.2 17.0 0.0 0.9 2.2

53.1 4.8 45.0 0.2 3.1 3.5

81.2 5.4 33.0 0.0 42.8 4.7

95.3 30.0 55.0 0.0 10.3 4.4

44.8 2.8 24.0 0.0 18.0 3.4

104.1 40.7 48.0 0.0 15.4 4.5

131.2 17.4 102.2 0.0 11.6 3.4

133.1 18.8 111.4 0.0 2.9 2.7

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

20.4 0.7 0.0

23.8 2.8 26.5

41.1 4.8 35.3

56.4 7.5 31.4

8.1 9.0 27.8

67.6 8.7 27.7

88.2 12.0 0.0

92.5 11.4 0.0

640.1 388.1 3.0 484.4 78.8 -78.8

611.4 340.4 4.0 429.5 88.9 -75.0

622.1 330.7 4.0 447.6 93.9 -103.9

644.7 372.9 4.0 506.2 106.9 ..

675.2 .. 4.0 .. 132.5 ..

60.6 36.8 8.0 2.7 1.6 33.5 2.0 28.8 32.9 42.3

69.3 38.6 7.4 3.4 1.9 37.7 2.5 29.6 30.7 40.3

125.5 66.7 7.9 5.1 2.7 22.6 2.5 49.2 20.6 26.1

98.8 57.1 8.7 4.5 2.6 29.0 2.5 36.2 25.4 33.3

.. 61.2 .. .. 2.5 32.1 .. 37.9 24.2 34.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

186.2 121.5 1.0 154.9 12.7 -12.5

369.2 301.2 16.0 352.1 44.6 -57.0

19.0 12.4 1.2 0.6 0.4 54.7 1.0 0.0 81.8 83.4

26.3 21.4 2.1 1.0 0.9 56.3 1.5 8.9 41.6 53.3

521.2 385.4 2.0 437.5 63.1 -33.1

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

33.3 24.6 3.1 1.5 1.1 49.2 1.7 13.2 57.6 61.6

366

ST. LUCIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

23.1 23.1 22.9 19.3 16.9 3.6 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

72.1 72.1 69.5 42.2 32.5 27.3 0.4 2.6 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

111.3 111.3 111.3 79.0 56.2 32.3 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

167.6 167.6 120.7 99.5 58.9 21.3 18.5 46.8 0.0 46.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

166.0 166.0 111.8 95.0 58.0 16.7 14.3 54.2 0.0 54.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

210.7 210.7 126.5 108.1 68.8 18.4 16.5 84.2 0.0 84.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

235.0 235.0 141.8 122.5 75.8 19.3 17.8 93.2 0.0 93.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

256.7 256.7 163.9 143.2 80.2 20.7 19.8 92.8 0.0 92.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 23.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 72.1 0.0

2.1 7.9 111.3 0.0

6.0 11.6 167.6 0.0

5.2 11.8 166.0 0.0

5.9 20.1 210.7 0.0

10.1 23.2 235.0 0.0

10.5 26.1 256.7 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.0 8.0 8.0 6.9 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.5 11.5 11.5 10.8 9.3 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

50.9 50.9 16.8 15.7 3.7 1.1 1.1 34.1 0.0 34.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.7 16.7 3.2 3.2 2.8 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.0 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

50.1 50.1 20.1 17.2 12.8 2.9 2.9 30.0 0.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

33.1 33.1 18.1 16.9 6.5 1.2 1.2 15.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

28.6 28.6 28.6 25.9 6.6 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.7 2.1

0.9 0.7

0.3 0.8

1.0 7.3

5.1 1.3

1.2 1.9

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 3.2 2.4 2.4 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.2 6.2 6.2 4.2 2.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.9 20.9 11.7 6.6 3.1 5.1 2.0 9.2 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.9 13.9 7.9 6.8 3.4 1.1 0.8 6.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.4 9.4 9.4 6.4 3.8 3.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.6 15.6 9.6 7.2 3.6 2.4 1.8 6.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.8 9.8 9.5 6.9 3.5 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.5 0.1

0.7 0.1

0.7 0.1

1.5 0.1

1.0 0.1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.8 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.8 4.8 4.8 3.0 1.6 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.5 7.5 5.2 4.0 1.7 1.2 0.9 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.0 9.0 4.1 3.8 1.5 0.3 0.3 4.9 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.7 8.7 4.2 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 4.6 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.0 12.0 4.5 3.7 1.7 0.8 0.8 7.5 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.4 11.4 4.7 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.8 6.7 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.0

0.3 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.4 0.2

0.5 0.2

367

ST. LUCIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 1.4 2.4 0.3 50.4

.. 4.0 40.3 1.1 32.8

.. 2.4 13.7 0.5 53.4

.. 0.3 1.9 0.0 50.3

4.6 0.0 1.7 0.0 53.1

5.2 0.0 1.0 0.0 58.7

5.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 62.4

4.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 66.1

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2.8 13.5 14.7 39.2 0.4 3.2 7.0 12.3 42.5 4.7 -0.4 5.8 2.2 -3.2 -1.8 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

179.2 175.2 3.7

-46.6 -54.8 5.5

45.0 40.8 3.3

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.0 17.9 4.7 37.1

4.3 24.1 8.2 42.8

4.7 24.8 7.1 38.4

7.3 18.0 9.3 17.9

5.5 18.4 5.2 29.0

5.2 15.9 4.4 30.1

3.2 18.8 6.5 45.3

1.7 23.4 7.3 59.7

4.0 17.9 4.7 37.1

4.3 24.1 8.2 42.8

4.7 24.8 7.1 38.4

6.0 22.7 5.5 26.7

3.9 23.5 6.4 43.9

2.4 21.6 6.1 52.1

3.2 18.8 6.5 45.3

1.7 23.4 7.3 59.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.5 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 9.2 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.2 2.8 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 2.1 9.8 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

14.8 13.2

19.4 12.8

21.5 12.1

39.0 11.1

21.7 9.0

21.7 8.0

20.2 7.1

18.0 6.2

10.9 5.7

14.2 5.6

15.3 5.3

15.7 5.0

15.6 4.5

15.6 4.1

14.0 3.6

11.9 3.2

2.2 1.1

3.6 1.1

3.5 1.1

3.5 1.0

2.9 0.9

3.4 0.8

2.6 0.7

1.6 0.6

8.7 4.6

10.6 4.4

11.8 4.2

12.1 3.9

12.6 3.6

12.2 3.3

11.5 2.9

10.3 2.6

3.9 7.6

5.2 7.2

6.2 6.8

23.3 6.2

6.2 4.4

6.2 3.9

6.2 3.5

6.2 3.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

368

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

27.2 24.8 24.8 0.0 0.3 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

61.0 58.9 58.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

119.3 92.3 92.3 0.0 0.0 27.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

195.6 164.3 164.3 0.0 0.0 31.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

194.6 163.3 163.3 0.0 0.0 31.3 1.3 0.3 0.9

205.9 173.6 173.6 0.0 0.0 32.4 2.4 0.3 2.0

227.9 194.6 194.6 0.0 0.0 33.2 3.2 0.4 2.9

256.9 223.4 223.4 0.0 0.0 33.5 3.5 0.4 3.2

0.1 0.1 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0

0.6 0.3 0.2

0.9 0.9 0.0

0.1 0.1 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.0

2.3 1.0 1.3

2.7 0.8 1.9

2.8 2.8 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.7 1.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.3 2.4 0.8 0.1

7.2 7.2 0.0 2.4 2.4 0.0 5.2 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.0 0.2 3.3 4.3 4.1 0.0 0.2

3.6 3.6 0.0 4.7 4.7 0.0 3.1 4.2 4.2 2.7 0.0 1.5 -1.1 8.9 7.4 0.0 1.5

8.5 8.5 0.0 6.2 6.2 0.0 1.5 -0.8 7.0 5.2 0.0 1.9 -5.5 13.3 11.4 0.0 1.9

7.8 7.8 0.0 6.7 6.7 0.0 0.2 -0.9 7.2 5.4 0.0 1.8 -7.0 13.9 12.1 0.0 1.8

18.0 18.0 0.0 7.6 7.6 0.0 10.4 0.0 5.6 4.4 0.0 1.2 4.8 13.2 12.0 0.0 1.2

26.5 26.5 0.0 9.4 9.4 0.0 17.1 0.0 5.8 4.6 0.0 1.2 11.3 15.2 14.0 0.0 1.2

39.9 39.9 0.0 13.2 13.2 0.0 26.7 0.0 7.7 6.5 0.0 1.2 19.0 20.9 19.7 0.0 1.2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

4.7 1.6 1.8 0.0 1.3 1.5

16.2 4.8 8.0 0.0 3.4 2.4

75.9 -1.1 31.0 0.0 46.0 2.7

43.9 2.3 38.0 0.0 3.6 1.2

26.8 1.1 21.0 0.0 4.7 1.3

46.8 10.4 32.0 0.0 4.4 0.9

76.1 17.1 55.1 0.0 3.9 1.5

91.4 26.7 55.7 0.0 8.9 2.4

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

3.5 1.2 0.0

1.2 1.7 13.3

62.1 2.7 11.1

26.1 5.2 12.7

10.2 5.4 11.2

31.0 4.4 11.4

60.8 4.6 0.0

72.7 6.5 0.0

316.9 181.1 3.0 226.8 55.2 -29.4

328.7 176.5 3.0 230.4 61.4 -41.3

347.4 180.3 3.5 234.8 53.2 -42.3

355.8 .. 3.5 .. 51.2 ..

380.6 .. 3.5 .. 75.0 ..

108.0 61.7 7.3 3.9 2.2 28.2 2.9 16.0 47.3 34.8

110.3 59.2 7.9 4.1 2.2 31.6 3.2 16.1 47.5 36.0

114.2 59.3 7.3 3.1 1.6 25.8 2.7 15.7 46.0 37.7

.. 64.0 .. .. 1.6 22.5 .. 14.6 41.7 34.3

.. 67.5 .. .. 2.0 29.2 .. 13.0 38.1 31.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

111.1 82.6 0.0 92.3 13.8 3.7

187.3 148.7 16.0 167.9 26.5 -23.6

32.9 24.5 4.0 1.7 1.3 50.8 1.8 7.6 73.8 82.9

41.0 32.6 2.9 1.3 1.0 43.5 1.9 3.5 82.5 81.0

254.8 140.3 2.0 190.2 29.8 -40.7

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

85.0 46.8 6.3 3.0 1.7 25.0 1.9 22.6 62.4 51.5

369

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

24.8 24.8 24.3 22.5 19.3 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

58.9 58.9 58.8 49.4 41.9 9.5 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

92.3 92.3 87.5 61.5 49.4 26.1 25.0 4.8 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

164.3 164.3 105.8 68.1 54.9 37.7 37.7 58.5 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

163.3 163.3 105.2 70.1 57.3 35.2 35.2 58.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

173.6 173.6 108.0 77.6 64.3 30.3 30.3 65.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

194.6 194.6 108.2 78.1 64.8 30.1 30.1 86.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

223.4 223.4 112.6 79.6 65.0 33.0 33.0 110.7 0.0 30.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.1 24.8 0.0

0.0 6.2 58.9 0.0

0.4 8.1 92.3 0.0

0.1 7.0 164.3 0.0

0.1 7.7 163.3 0.0

0.5 10.1 173.6 0.0

0.6 11.5 194.6 0.0

0.9 13.3 223.4 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.2 7.2 7.2 6.6 5.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.6 3.6 3.5 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.5 8.5 8.5 5.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.8 7.8 7.8 6.5 5.6 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

18.0 18.0 9.4 9.2 8.5 0.2 0.2 8.6 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

26.5 26.5 4.3 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.7 22.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

39.9 39.9 10.1 5.6 2.9 4.5 4.5 29.8 0.0 29.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.9

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 1.1

0.5 1.8

0.1 0.5

0.4 1.4

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.4 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.7 4.7 4.7 3.6 2.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.2 6.2 5.8 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.7 6.7 6.3 3.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.6 7.6 6.5 4.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.4 9.4 7.8 4.9 3.4 3.0 3.0 1.5 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.2 13.2 7.7 5.4 3.6 2.3 2.3 5.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.2 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.7 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 3.3 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.4 5.4 3.9 2.6 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.4 4.4 3.7 2.5 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.6 4.6 3.6 2.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.5 6.5 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.0 1.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.1 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

370

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.3 11.4 0.0 47.2

.. 0.2 4.6 0.2 67.5

.. 0.1 5.4 1.4 70.1

.. 0.0 2.8 0.3 82.7

6.2 0.0 2.2 0.3 84.3

6.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 82.9

7.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 72.8

7.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 69.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2.2 8.2 4.2 1.2 -1.0 1.9 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.9 -1.8 -1.0 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.3 10.4 3.4

21.9 17.1 3.7

29.0 26.7 2.2

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.7 15.3 3.9 29.8

4.0 20.7 4.9 39.8

3.5 19.9 4.2 41.0

2.5 30.1 10.3 61.6

3.9 16.6 3.4 34.1

2.4 20.7 6.1 51.6

6.5 14.8 0.1 13.1

5.3 13.7 3.0 25.8

4.7 15.3 3.9 29.8

4.0 20.7 4.9 39.8

3.5 19.9 4.2 41.0

2.5 30.1 10.3 61.6

3.4 23.1 6.9 47.2

2.4 20.7 6.1 51.6

4.9 22.4 0.0 28.8

2.2 20.3 6.0 51.8

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.4 10.1 0.1 3.2

7.0 9.9 1.3 11.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

17.4 7.9

18.3 8.1

17.9 7.7

18.9 7.2

19.9 6.6

20.4 5.9

19.4 5.2

19.4 4.5

11.5 3.2

9.7 3.4

9.4 3.4

10.4 3.3

11.4 3.1

11.9 2.8

10.9 2.5

10.8 2.2

3.5 1.0

3.1 1.0

3.0 1.0

3.4 0.9

4.2 0.8

4.4 0.7

3.7 0.6

3.7 0.6

8.0 2.3

6.7 2.4

6.4 2.4

7.0 2.4

7.2 2.2

7.5 2.1

7.2 1.9

7.1 1.7

5.9 4.7

8.6 4.7

8.5 4.3

8.5 3.9

8.5 3.5

8.5 3.1

8.5 2.7

8.5 2.3

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Starting from 1993, Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS debt data on international bank lending.

371

SUDAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

8,955 6,846 6,602 244 739 1,371 727 720 6

14,762 9,651 9,155 496 956 4,155 3,705 3,244 461

17,603 10,275 9,779 496 960 6,368 5,737 4,748 989

16,394 10,927 10,431 496 625 4,842 4,572 3,173 1,399

16,507 11,121 10,625 496 551 4,835 4,694 3,253 1,441

17,297 11,418 10,922 496 573 5,306 5,169 3,497 1,672

18,389 11,871 11,375 496 599 5,920 5,787 3,954 1,833

19,332 12,220 11,724 496 593 6,519 6,122 4,150 1,972

1,450 1,201 250

5,703 3,893 1,811

7,637 5,282 2,355

7,340 5,164 2,176

7,679 5,454 2,225

8,166 5,701 2,465

8,647 6,014 2,633

8,981 6,203 2,778

101 101 0 21 16 5 -174 -254 128 73 35 20 -302 149 89 40 20

185 185 0 16 15 1 169 0 34 9 0 25 135 50 23 1 25

51 51 0 54 15 39 0 3 15 2 13 0 -15 69 17 52 0

861 861 0 197 143 54 625 -39 42 42 0 0 583 239 185 54 0

465 465 0 190 138 52 145 -129 43 42 1 0 102 233 180 53 0

104 104 0 102 80 22 -2 -4 39 38 1 0 -41 141 118 23 0

111 111 0 214 188 26 -108 -4 58 58 0 0 -166 272 246 26 0

224 224 0 233 202 31 255 264 79 79 0 0 176 312 281 31 0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

857 85 -3 0 775 204

603 170 0 0 433 184

185 36 0 0 149 77

1,286 718 392 0 176 33

1,059 327 574 0 158 30

1,037 24 713 0 300 43

1,836 -77 1,349 0 564 58

2,325 22 1,511 0 792 78

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

784 73 0

595 9 0

183 2 0

1,244 42 0

1,016 42 0

366 38 633

899 58 879

1,124 79 1,122

12,176 2,462 740 2,627 118 -522

14,165 3,081 978 3,750 441 -974

16,347 3,807 1,224 4,246 848 -939

19,609 5,245 1,403 5,785 1,626 -818

670.6 135.6 9.5 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 29.3 31.3 13.3

561.5 122.1 4.6 1.3 0.3 2.5 1.4 30.7 29.4 13.3

483.0 112.5 7.2 1.5 0.4 4.6 2.4 32.2 28.7 13.3

368.6 98.6 6.0 1.5 0.4 8.4 3.4 33.7 28.2 13.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

11,935 1,091 261 1,039 12 154

12,395 573 62 1,025 11 -372

820.6 75.0 13.7 11.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 15.3 37.2 10.7

2,574.9 119.1 8.7 5.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 28.1 30.2 11.7

6,280 1,029 346 1,243 163 -500

10,304 2,477 641 2,594 247 -518

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

1,710.6 280.3 6.7 1.5 0.2 0.9 1.6 36.2 27.5 12.1

372

661.9 159.1 9.7 1.7 0.4 1.5 1.1 29.5 30.5 12.1

SUDAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

6,846 6,602 5,508 961 816 4,547 2,517 1,093 0 1,084 244 0 244

9,651 9,155 7,500 1,723 1,549 5,777 2,903 1,655 0 1,651 496 0 496

10,275 9,779 7,921 2,133 1,927 5,787 2,910 1,859 0 1,855 496 0 496

10,927 10,431 8,673 1,985 1,838 6,689 3,162 1,758 0 1,296 496 0 496

11,121 10,625 8,896 2,196 2,057 6,700 3,107 1,729 0 1,267 496 0 496

11,418 10,922 8,924 2,306 2,146 6,618 2,945 1,998 0 1,507 496 0 496

11,871 11,375 9,208 2,437 2,259 6,771 3,012 2,166 0 1,675 496 0 496

12,220 11,724 9,359 2,543 2,361 6,816 3,088 2,365 0 1,820 496 0 496

43 517 6,846 0

19 1,028 9,651 0

6 1,272 10,275 0

1 1,167 10,927 0

0 1,137 11,121 0

0 1,192 11,418 0

0 1,262 11,871 0

0 1,300 12,220 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

101 101 101 42 40 59 57 0 0 0 0 0 0

185 185 185 185 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

51 51 51 51 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

861 861 318 171 171 146 125 543 0 87 0 0 0

465 465 465 285 284 180 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

104 104 75 20 13 55 32 29 0 0 0 0 0

111 111 111 33 33 78 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

224 224 170 71 71 98 61 54 0 0 0 0 0

0 38

0 121

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

16 16 16 8 3 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 15 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 15 15 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

143 143 143 32 30 111 58 0 0 0 0 0 0

138 138 138 21 20 117 35 0 0 0 0 0 0

80 80 80 14 14 66 36 0 0 0 0 0 0

188 188 188 32 30 156 22 0 0 0 0 0 0

202 202 202 31 27 171 17 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 2

10 4

0 0

2 2

0 1

0 0

0 3

0 2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

73 73 32 8 4 24 4 41 0 41 0 0 0

9 9 9 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

42 42 41 16 15 26 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

42 42 42 13 13 29 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

38 38 38 10 10 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

58 58 58 22 20 36 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 79 20 17 59 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 4

2 6

0 0

0 2

0 1

0 0

0 2

0 2

373

SUDAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.2 4.8 16.8 49.1

.. 2.3 4.3 18.6 48.1

.. 2.9 3.4 19.6 47.6

.. 1.9 3.2 11.9 61.3

6.3 1.7 3.1 11.4 60.6

7.2 1.8 3.0 13.4 57.3

8.4 1.9 3.1 14.4 54.9

8.7 1.9 3.2 15.3 53.2

1,066 0 0 0 0 849 0 0 0 0 157 0 0 6 0 25 0 0 3 0 131 0 0 3 0 85 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 1 82 0 0 1 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 475 1,403 685 262 113 -174 169 0 625 145 237 518 274 -220 -161 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 2 2 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

790 -2 573

1,092 -108 542

943 255 338

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.5 37.3 8.7 60.6

0.8 49.9 10.4 83.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 24.8 4.7 56.4

5.0 16.0 3.4 28.8

2.5 22.9 7.0 53.7

2.8 17.7 4.9 45.2

2.5 19.9 5.8 46.5

2.5 37.3 8.7 60.6

0.8 49.9 10.4 83.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.7 24.8 4.7 56.4

5.0 16.0 3.4 28.8

2.4 23.9 7.0 54.9

2.8 17.7 4.9 45.2

2.5 19.9 5.8 46.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

316 101

302 96

265 92

268 89

262 82

301 72

276 64

256 56

316 101

302 96

265 92

258 86

251 79

290 70

266 62

246 54

229 69

213 64

174 59

164 53

154 47

181 39

149 33

135 27

87 31

89 33

91 33

94 33

97 32

109 31

117 29

111 27

0 0

0 0

0 0

11 3

11 3

11 2

11 2

11 2

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2000-2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

374

SWAZILAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

260.9 231.8 231.8 0.0 14.1 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

298.4 293.8 293.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.0

290.5 279.2 279.2 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.7 0.7 0.0

288.5 286.7 286.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

284.2 283.2 283.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

342.1 335.8 335.8 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.1 3.0 3.1

435.0 421.3 421.3 0.0 0.0 13.8 13.5 8.1 5.4

470.1 456.0 456.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 14.1 10.2 3.9

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0

4.0 3.8 0.3

0.2 0.2 0.0

0.2 0.2 0.0

4.0 4.0 0.0

7.7 7.7 0.0

8.2 8.2 0.0

28.5 28.5 0.0 17.3 15.7 1.7 19.2 8.0 9.8 8.3 0.7 0.9 9.3 27.2 23.9 2.3 0.9

14.1 14.1 0.0 36.0 35.7 0.3 -38.7 -16.7 10.5 10.0 0.0 0.4 -49.1 46.5 45.7 0.3 0.4

17.8 17.8 0.0 15.7 15.7 0.0 6.4 4.3 5.3 4.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 20.9 20.5 0.0 0.4

15.8 15.8 0.0 14.7 14.7 0.0 -49.8 -50.9 18.8 16.7 0.0 2.1 -68.6 33.5 31.4 0.0 2.1

35.7 35.7 0.0 14.1 14.1 0.0 20.7 -0.8 11.3 11.2 0.0 0.1 9.4 25.4 25.4 0.0 0.1

12.9 12.9 0.0 10.8 10.8 0.0 1.3 -0.9 8.2 8.2 0.0 0.0 -6.9 18.9 18.9 0.0 0.0

40.9 40.9 0.0 13.3 13.3 0.0 27.8 0.1 13.3 13.3 0.0 0.0 14.5 26.6 26.6 0.0 0.0

59.6 59.6 0.0 23.5 23.5 0.0 35.9 -0.3 20.8 20.8 0.0 0.0 15.1 44.3 44.3 0.0 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

32.0 12.8 11.7 0.0 7.5 17.1

26.2 -21.6 30.0 -2.2 20.1 27.3

73.8 2.2 52.0 0.8 18.9 28.1

103.4 1.1 91.0 1.4 9.9 9.5

58.0 21.6 28.0 -2.5 11.0 9.1

96.9 2.2 89.0 -2.0 7.8 9.5

-21.1 27.7 -61.0 -0.1 12.4 7.8

215.3 36.1 68.4 -0.3 111.5 11.5

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

11.9 8.3 11.9

-69.2 10.0 85.4

0.9 4.9 68.0

-1.1 16.7 87.8

6.3 11.2 40.5

-42.3 8.2 131.0

-154.4 13.3 120.0

107.6 20.8 86.9

1,363.6 1,312.9 74.0 1,404.0 271.8 -56.7

1,196.1 1,275.1 62.0 1,280.1 275.8 57.5

1,892.4 2,024.6 87.8 1,954.7 277.5 116.2

2,401.2 2,599.0 88.8 2,576.5 323.6 114.2

21.6 20.8 1.9 0.9 0.8 95.6 2.3 0.4 54.3 55.4

26.8 28.6 1.5 0.6 0.7 80.6 2.6 1.8 51.7 53.4

21.5 23.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 63.8 1.7 3.2 53.3 46.6

18.1 19.6 1.7 0.8 0.9 68.8 1.5 3.0 43.5 51.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

406.4 276.4 48.0 368.0 83.4 -38.5

941.1 819.6 113.0 870.4 216.5 50.7

94.4 64.2 9.8 3.6 2.4 32.0 2.7 5.7 41.4 38.5

36.4 31.7 5.7 1.3 1.1 72.5 3.0 1.5 68.4 38.9

1,445.0 1,182.2 83.0 1,355.9 298.2 -29.7

1,423.1 1,286.6 74.0 1,468.6 351.8 -74.9

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

24.6 20.1 1.8 0.4 0.4 102.6 2.6 3.9 74.7 41.4

375

22.4 20.3 2.6 1.5 1.3 121.9 2.9 0.6 54.3 51.9

SWAZILAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

231.8 231.8 209.0 100.5 22.9 108.5 85.0 22.8 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

293.8 293.8 287.0 116.2 42.7 170.8 161.5 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

279.2 279.2 279.0 120.3 59.7 158.7 157.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

286.7 286.7 266.9 149.9 59.7 117.0 96.9 19.8 0.0 19.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

283.2 283.2 261.0 157.4 62.4 103.6 91.9 22.1 0.0 22.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

335.8 335.8 304.8 182.6 71.3 122.2 105.7 31.1 0.0 31.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

421.3 421.3 380.8 202.6 75.0 178.3 156.8 40.4 0.0 40.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

456.0 456.0 389.6 241.2 79.8 148.4 124.8 66.4 0.0 66.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

43.5 7.6 231.8 0.0

36.9 6.8 293.8 0.0

19.2 5.9 279.2 0.0

9.0 4.7 286.7 0.0

9.0 4.4 283.2 0.0

9.1 4.2 335.8 0.0

14.8 3.9 421.3 0.0

23.7 3.7 456.0 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

28.5 28.5 13.9 3.9 1.2 10.0 4.3 14.6 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.1 14.1 14.1 8.2 2.6 5.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

17.8 17.8 17.8 7.2 2.7 10.7 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

35.7 35.7 21.7 18.4 6.4 3.3 3.3 14.0 0.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

12.9 12.9 12.9 9.7 6.4 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

40.9 40.9 40.9 9.1 0.5 31.9 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

59.6 59.6 42.3 38.2 5.2 4.1 4.1 17.3 0.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 0.0

1.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.7 0.0

1.0 0.0

1.0 0.0

6.8 0.0

10.2 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

15.7 15.7 10.3 6.8 0.5 3.5 1.4 5.4 0.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

35.7 35.7 33.7 26.8 1.1 6.9 4.2 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

15.7 15.7 15.4 8.2 1.4 7.2 6.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.7 14.7 14.7 8.1 2.4 6.6 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.1 14.1 14.1 8.9 1.9 5.2 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.8 10.8 10.8 7.5 1.6 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.3 13.3 13.3 9.7 1.8 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

23.5 23.5 22.5 12.8 2.8 9.7 8.2 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 0.2

20.4 0.2

3.5 0.3

0.9 0.3

1.0 0.3

0.9 0.3

1.0 0.3

1.4 0.3

8.3 8.3 7.6 6.0 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

10.0 10.0 9.2 6.5 0.5 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.9 4.9 4.8 3.1 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

16.7 16.7 10.8 5.2 0.5 5.7 1.5 5.9 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.2 11.2 8.7 5.4 0.5 3.3 0.7 2.5 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.2 8.2 7.2 6.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.3 13.3 9.2 8.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.1 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

20.8 20.8 13.8 9.4 1.4 4.4 1.6 7.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.4 0.1

3.6 0.1

1.2 0.0

0.8 0.0

0.7 0.0

0.7 0.0

0.6 0.0

0.7 0.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

376

SWAZILAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 11.4 0.0 13.8

.. 0.0 8.8 0.0 9.7

.. 0.0 3.9 0.0 7.0

.. 0.0 0.9 0.0 9.5

30.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 11.3

30.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 11.0

29.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 9.9

20.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 11.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 50.9 -10.5 18.8 -72.4 -4.3 19.2 -38.7 6.4 -49.8 20.7 29.0 19.3 10.9 -17.2 -17.3 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

57.9 1.3 31.5

92.9 27.8 28.1

35.0 35.9 23.2

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.7 19.4 5.2 30.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 19.5 5.0 18.1

3.0 40.2 27.2 66.3

6.7 23.8 8.0 26.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4.4 20.3 5.0 36.8

14.0 19.8 4.4 -28.4

5.7 19.4 5.2 30.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7.1 19.5 5.0 18.1

3.0 40.2 27.2 66.3

4.3 26.7 8.8 43.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.8 20.4 5.3 47.8

14.0 19.8 4.4 -28.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

13.4 19.5 3.8 -24.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -31.1 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

26.6 31.9

28.2 35.9

36.8 37.5

42.0 37.6

44.1 36.2

42.7 33.8

44.9 31.1

43.1 28.2

26.6 20.7

26.7 23.8

32.1 25.8

37.4 26.5

39.4 25.7

38.0 24.0

40.2 22.0

38.4 19.8

11.1 6.6

11.2 6.4

11.8 6.0

9.6 5.7

7.8 5.3

6.6 5.0

8.8 4.6

7.5 4.2

15.5 14.0

15.5 17.5

20.4 19.7

27.7 20.9

31.6 20.4

31.4 19.1

31.5 17.4

30.9 15.6

0.0 11.2

1.4 12.1

4.7 11.7

4.7 11.1

4.7 10.4

4.7 9.8

4.7 9.1

4.7 8.4

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

377

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

10,876 9,542 9,542 0 0 1,334 27 19 8

17,259 15,108 15,108 0 0 2,151 460 407 53

21,415 16,853 16,853 0 0 4,562 1,633 1,502 131

21,657 15,930 15,930 0 0 5,727 2,407 2,267 140

21,341 15,809 15,809 0 0 5,532 2,532 2,393 139

21,466 15,849 15,849 0 0 5,617 2,617 2,473 145

21,566 15,848 15,848 0 0 5,718 2,718 2,566 152

21,521 15,742 15,742 0 0 5,778 2,778 2,623 155

64 30 34

864 580 284

5,654 4,831 823

9,820 8,775 1,046

10,583 9,540 1,043

11,455 10,385 1,071

12,289 11,189 1,100

13,071 11,953 1,118

1,986 1,986 0 122 122 0 2,155 291 138 44 0 94 2,017 260 166 0 94

186 186 0 1,066 1,066 0 -672 208 123 41 0 82 -795 1,189 1,107 0 82

242 242 0 70 70 0 483 311 199 60 0 139 284 269 130 0 139

18 18 0 121 121 0 -708 -605 222 102 0 120 -930 343 223 0 120

0 0 0 102 102 0 -421 -320 179 64 0 115 -600 280 165 0 115

0 0 0 110 110 0 -109 0 172 49 0 123 -281 281 158 0 123

0 0 0 165 165 0 -165 0 174 55 0 119 -339 339 220 0 119

0 0 0 164 164 0 -164 0 164 49 0 115 -328 328 213 0 115

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

2,517 1,864 37 0 616 15

-259 -880 0 0 621 31

342 172 100 0 70 82

226 -103 270 0 59 42

74 -101 110 0 66 45

78 -109 115 0 73 51

78 -165 160 0 83 94

208 -164 275 0 97 71

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

2,473 44 0

-301 41 0

282 60 0

124 102 0

10 64 0

30 49 0

24 55 0

159 49 0

18,689 7,866 170 7,138 .. 1,221

19,382 8,477 135 7,516 .. 1,440

20,704 8,118 889 7,375 .. 752

23,267 9,250 855 9,029 .. 210

271.3 114.2 3.6 2.3 1.0 .. .. 25.9 68.9 2.6

253.2 110.8 3.3 2.0 0.9 .. .. 26.2 68.6 2.4

265.7 104.2 4.2 2.1 0.8 .. .. 26.5 68.2 2.2

232.6 92.5 3.5 1.8 0.7 .. .. 26.8 67.9 2.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

16,917 2,890 350 5,059 355 -958

11,955 5,460 385 3,786 .. 1,762

376.3 64.3 9.0 4.8 0.8 3.3 0.8 12.3 75.7 4.5

316.1 144.4 21.8 2.3 1.0 .. .. 12.5 76.1 5.2

11,591 6,201 339 6,545 .. 263

17,204 7,190 180 6,614 .. 1,061

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

345.3 184.8 4.3 3.2 1.7 .. .. 21.3 70.4 5.0

378

301.2 125.9 4.8 3.1 1.3 .. .. 26.4 68.4 2.7

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

9,542 9,542 8,640 492 124 8,148 8,110 902 0 0 0 0 0

15,108 15,108 13,830 901 205 12,930 12,929 1,277 0 0 0 0 0

16,853 16,853 15,646 1,077 517 14,569 14,567 1,207 0 0 0 0 0

15,930 15,930 14,862 575 528 14,287 14,286 1,068 0 0 0 0 0

15,809 15,809 14,751 557 521 14,194 14,193 1,058 0 0 0 0 0

15,849 15,849 14,766 518 489 14,248 14,246 1,082 0 0 0 0 0

15,848 15,848 14,739 475 455 14,264 14,262 1,109 0 0 0 0 0

15,742 15,742 14,620 424 412 14,196 14,193 1,122 0 0 0 0 0

311 46 9,542 1

479 44 15,107 0

428 44 16,853 0

25 30 15,929 0

15 28 15,809 0

11 27 15,848 0

4 25 15,847 0

0 24 15,742 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,986 1,986 1,825 52 14 1,773 1,773 161 0 0 0 0 0

186 186 157 29 8 128 128 28 0 0 0 0 0

242 242 242 123 122 118 118 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 12 12 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

122 122 61 24 1 37 36 61 0 0 0 0 0

1,066 1,066 1,029 24 8 1,005 1,005 37 0 0 0 0 0

70 70 64 48 17 16 16 5 0 0 0 0 0

121 121 117 70 44 48 48 4 0 0 0 0 0

102 102 100 53 41 47 47 1 0 0 0 0 0

110 110 108 57 46 51 51 1 0 0 0 0 0

165 165 161 56 44 105 105 4 0 0 0 0 0

164 164 160 53 45 106 106 4 0 0 0 0 0

18 1

1 2

13 0

14 1

8 1

6 1

8 1

4 1

44 44 35 23 2 12 12 9 0 0 0 0 0

41 41 32 14 5 18 18 9 0 0 0 0 0

60 60 58 38 20 20 20 2 0 0 0 0 0

102 102 102 82 23 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

64 64 64 45 21 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 0

49 49 48 31 21 17 17 0 0 0 0 0 0

55 55 54 21 20 34 34 0 0 0 0 0 0

49 49 49 18 18 31 31 0 0 0 0 0 0

20 0

1 1

12 0

57 0

23 0

9 0

1 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

379

SYRIAN ARAB REPUBLIC (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 1.3 0.0 0.0 89.0

.. 1.8 0.6 0.0 86.2

.. 3.5 1.0 0.0 81.9

.. 3.1 0.6 0.0 86.1

2.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 86.7

2.6 2.9 0.7 0.0 86.5

3.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 86.4

3.0 2.9 0.8 0.0 86.9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,308 -342 768 -712 -317 2,155 -672 483 -708 -421 135 157 57 -112 -98 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

125 -109 149

100 -165 167

-45 -164 60

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.1 23.1 4.2 53.6

3.7 22.7 6.1 43.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.9 23.4 4.2 54.7

3.8 23.0 6.2 43.9

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.3 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.4 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.1 36.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

883 72

872 52

128 32

118 28

111 23

109 19

103 15

92 11

880 72

871 52

128 32

118 27

111 23

109 19

103 15

92 11

838 57

833 38

92 20

82 17

75 14

73 11

69 9

58 6

42 16

38 14

36 12

36 11

36 9

36 7

34 6

34 4

3 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are estimates based on the original terms of the loans and include only civilian debt. Data on noncivilian debt, which is substantial and owed mainly to Eastern European countries, are estimates using creditor source information. Data on civilian debt do not reflect bilateral debt arrangements that have been agreed in recent years. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

380

TAJIKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

634 590 590 0 0 43 43 37 6

1,034 846 755 91 111 77 45 23 22

1,058 869 762 107 110 79 27 27 0

1,142 988 901 87 94 60 9 3 6

1,141 960 901 59 100 81 2 0 2

896 773 745 29 122 0 0 0 0

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

142 120 22

121 70 51

77 77 0

87 58 30

29 25 4

17 13 4

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

28 28 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0 0 0

62 37 25 37 28 10 -4 -29 25 21 2 2 -30 63 49 12 2

115 100 15 58 46 12 77 20 23 20 1 2 54 81 66 13 2

34 24 10 79 45 34 -46 -1 17 15 1 1 -63 96 60 35 1

66 55 11 73 58 15 21 28 16 15 0 1 5 89 73 16 1

131 102 29 77 65 12 -25 -79 23 22 1 1 -49 101 87 13 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

92 28 10 0 54 12

83 9 24 0 50 15

153 54 9 0 89 19

120 -21 36 2 104 52

108 -3 32 0 78 38

391 36 272 0 82 52

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

92 0 0

62 21 0

133 20 0

105 15 0

92 15 1

368 22 1

944 804 0 903 94 -63

1,032 703 0 860 94 -74

1,180 848 79 970 90 -15

1,464 1,142 146 1,218 118 -5

1,993 1,474 252 1,504 172 -57

128.6 109.5 7.8 3.2 2.7 9.1 1.3 7.5 65.3 18.0

150.6 102.6 11.5 3.2 2.2 8.9 1.3 7.5 70.6 25.0

134.7 96.7 11.3 2.0 1.4 7.8 1.1 5.3 68.7 26.8

99.9 77.9 7.8 1.4 1.1 10.3 1.2 7.1 74.9 33.1

60.8 44.9 6.8 1.6 1.2 19.2 1.4 0.0 79.5 54.2

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

1,193 779 0 893 .. -89

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

81.3 53.1 .. .. .. .. .. 6.8 3.3 0.0

381

TAJIKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

590 590 522 0 0 522 21 68 0 68 0 0 0

846 755 704 186 185 518 490 51 0 51 91 0 91

869 762 762 264 263 497 485 0 0 0 107 0 107

988 901 851 306 303 545 481 50 0 39 87 0 87

960 901 890 378 365 513 489 10 0 0 59 0 59

773 745 734 485 473 249 240 10 0 0 29 0 29

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0 0 590 0

0 143 755 91

0 172 762 107

0 195 894 94

0 228 894 66

0 296 737 36

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

28 28 28 0 0 28 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

37 36 36 36 35 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

100 52 52 41 39 11 1 0 0 0 48 0 48

24 24 24 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

55 55 55 48 37 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

102 98 98 89 87 9 9 0 0 0 4 0 4

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 23

0 35

0 10

0 13

0 55

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

28 15 15 0 0 15 15 0 0 0 12 0 12

46 15 15 8 7 8 8 0 0 0 31 0 31

45 24 24 8 8 17 17 0 0 0 20 0 20

58 34 18 9 9 10 4 16 0 15 24 0 24

65 39 38 2 0 36 34 1 0 0 26 0 26

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

21 7 4 1 1 3 3 4 0 4 14 0 14

20 17 6 3 3 2 1 11 0 11 3 0 3

15 10 7 4 4 3 3 3 0 2 5 0 5

15 11 10 4 4 7 4 1 0 0 4 0 4

22 20 20 5 4 15 15 0 0 0 2 0 2

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

0 1

0 1

0 1

0 2

0 2

382

TAJIKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.8

6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.4

6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.2

8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.1

67 62 56 13 43 11 0 11 18 2 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 242 0

25 77 -12

83 -46 34

-1 21 44

-245 -25 26

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 2 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 53 -241 .. .. 28 -4 .. .. -4 -12 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.8 26.4 6.7 48.0

1.5 30.6 8.0 67.4

1.1 34.2 9.0 73.5

1.5 26.4 6.8 62.0

1.5 29.2 6.8 65.6

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.8 26.4 6.7 48.0

1.5 30.6 8.0 67.4

1.1 34.2 9.0 73.5

1.5 26.4 6.8 62.0

1.5 29.2 6.8 65.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

.. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

54 14

54 14

59 14

65 13

65 13

65 12

64 11

52 10

48 12

50 13

53 13

57 13

61 12

63 12

62 11

50 10

42 6

45 6

46 6

46 5

47 5

47 4

42 3

13 3

5 6

4 6

7 7

10 7

15 8

16 8

20 8

37 8

6 1

4 1

6 1

8 1

4 0

2 0

2 0

2 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on partial reports provided by the country and World Bank Staff estimates. Private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Rescheduling: In 1993, $18 million of technical credits were rescheduled with Kazakhstan. In 1996, $505.8 million were rescheduled with bilateral creditors. A debt for asset swap was signed in October 2004 by Tajikistan and Russia involving US$242 million of Tajikistan's debt.

383

TANZANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

9,105 4,643 4,624 19 58 4,404 3,804 3,736 68

6,454 5,794 5,782 12 140 520 404 280 124

7,421 6,261 6,217 44 197 963 904 734 170

6,931 5,760 5,732 28 324 848 645 471 174

6,245 5,300 5,276 24 341 604 484 455 29

6,840 5,739 5,720 20 400 702 541 505 36

6,990 5,738 5,722 16 437 814 657 610 47

7,799 6,237 6,225 12 423 1,140 811 752 59

1,467 1,377 89

824 628 196

1,508 1,220 288

705 542 164

573 507 66

628 571 58

682 621 61

719 656 63

211 211 0 119 111 8 138 46 55 29 1 25 83 174 140 9 25

325 296 29 118 89 28 223 16 62 47 6 9 162 179 136 34 9

262 262 0 146 127 19 94 -22 86 82 1 4 8 232 208 21 4

261 208 53 108 98 10 197 44 64 52 2 10 134 171 150 12 10

225 175 51 105 103 2 39 -82 48 39 2 6 -9 153 142 4 6

240 188 52 66 61 5 215 41 43 35 2 6 172 108 96 7 6

501 476 25 51 44 7 445 -4 40 33 2 5 405 91 77 9 5

426 418 8 67 42 25 532 172 52 43 2 7 479 119 85 27 7

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

381 100 15 0 267 141

884 207 0 0 677 208

706 135 120 0 451 265

1,303 111 463 0 730 153

1,341 72 342 0 927 155

1,244 127 243 0 874 181

1,649 432 254 0 963 160

1,897 376 249 0 1,272 176

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

352 29 0

837 47 0

623 82 2

1,238 52 13

1,300 39 1

1,207 35 2

1,600 33 16

1,842 43 13

8,959 1,341 8 2,230 974 -499

9,356 1,585 16 2,450 1,157 -457

9,721 1,661 12 2,293 1,529 -217

10,244 1,955 9 2,907 2,038 -393

10,801 2,261 11 3,313 2,296 -437

516.9 77.4 12.8 4.7 0.7 14.1 5.2 12.2 72.2 47.1

393.9 66.8 9.6 3.0 0.5 18.5 5.7 9.7 76.2 51.8

411.9 70.4 6.5 2.6 0.4 22.4 8.0 10.3 76.3 52.2

357.5 68.2 4.7 2.1 0.4 29.2 8.4 11.7 76.7 61.0

345.0 72.2 5.3 2.3 0.5 29.4 8.3 14.6 75.1 61.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. 437 0 1,178 16 -375

4,072 544 0 1,665 193 -559

2,085.2 .. 39.9 12.6 .. 0.2 0.2 48.4 38.1 12.2

1,185.8 158.5 32.9 11.3 1.5 3.0 1.4 8.1 53.5 30.6

5,131 1,297 1 2,281 270 -590

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

572.2 144.6 17.9 6.6 1.7 3.6 1.4 13.0 60.0 37.6

384

TANZANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

4,643 4,624 4,201 1,107 752 3,094 2,714 423 0 62 19 0 19

5,794 5,782 5,295 1,976 1,619 3,320 1,832 487 0 83 12 0 12

6,261 6,217 5,796 2,791 2,603 3,005 1,848 421 0 73 44 0 44

5,760 5,732 5,526 3,267 3,209 2,259 1,797 206 0 80 28 0 28

5,300 5,276 5,188 3,233 3,198 1,955 1,559 88 0 17 24 0 24

5,739 5,720 5,646 3,570 3,542 2,076 1,677 73 0 17 20 0 20

5,738 5,722 5,630 4,263 4,238 1,367 1,119 92 0 38 16 0 16

6,237 6,225 6,132 4,778 4,749 1,353 1,106 93 0 39 12 0 12

266 568 4,590 53

243 1,250 5,725 70

87 2,182 6,119 141

11 2,593 5,679 80

8 2,588 5,240 60

6 2,869 5,691 48

3 3,474 5,721 17

0 3,916 6,225 12

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

211 208 161 78 65 82 60 47 0 0 3 0 3

296 296 279 200 187 80 50 17 0 4 0 0 0

262 261 220 187 173 33 28 40 0 5 1 0 1

208 208 203 185 185 18 18 5 0 5 0 0 0

175 175 174 147 145 26 26 1 0 0 0 0 0

188 188 188 188 188 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

476 476 456 452 452 4 4 20 0 20 0 0 0

418 418 418 418 406 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 34

0 186

0 160

0 142

0 119

0 148

0 397

0 343

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

111 108 107 31 4 76 14 1 0 0 3 0 3

89 89 77 45 13 33 24 12 0 0 0 0 0

127 122 100 78 23 21 14 22 0 0 5 0 5

98 94 77 29 18 47 34 17 0 0 4 0 4

103 98 80 44 29 37 20 18 0 7 4 0 4

61 57 39 22 14 17 8 18 0 1 4 0 4

44 41 40 21 14 19 15 1 0 0 3 0 3

42 38 38 28 20 10 10 0 0 0 4 0 4

25 3

26 6

34 12

4 9

3 19

2 5

3 9

3 13

29 28 27 21 5 6 6 1 0 0 1 0 1

47 47 44 27 9 17 11 3 0 0 0 0 0

82 80 77 56 18 20 11 3 0 0 1 0 1

52 51 49 23 19 26 17 2 0 0 1 0 1

39 39 38 24 17 13 11 1 0 0 1 0 1

35 35 34 23 22 11 4 1 0 0 1 0 1

33 32 32 26 26 6 5 0 0 0 1 0 1

43 42 42 36 34 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

15 5

17 8

8 16

1 15

1 16

1 17

0 20

0 28

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

385

TANZANIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 37.3 6.6 0.3 24.2

.. 8.5 11.7 0.6 35.7

.. 10.9 10.2 0.1 39.0

.. 8.3 9.2 0.0 50.3

5.9 7.8 9.1 0.0 50.7

5.9 7.8 8.5 0.0 52.3

1.9 8.8 6.0 0.0 56.2

1.9 8.2 5.3 0.0 56.6

32 0 15 13 1 7 7 0 214 182 69 7

76 0 13 13 0 4 4 0 87 20 0 0

38 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 131 3 617 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 3 1 0

-686 39 -210

595 215 311

149 445 402

810 532 146

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0 183 0 342 0 0 0 0 0 59 0 243 0 35 0 237 0 24 0 7 0 96 0 88 0 91 0 88 0 5 0 0 0 102 140 381 0 10 0 189 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 1,880 601 175 -724 138 223 94 197 423 118 -136 -286 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS 5.7 23.0 4.8 32.2

1.1 34.9 9.3 72.5

1.7 17.0 5.8 47.7

0.9 38.2 9.8 78.2

0.7 40.9 10.0 80.2

0.6 37.4 9.5 78.0

0.9 38.6 9.6 77.9

0.8 42.1 10.2 81.2

1.6 41.4 9.0 72.4

1.1 35.3 9.4 72.9

1.7 22.3 7.4 60.5

0.8 39.0 10.1 79.6

0.7 40.9 10.0 80.2

0.6 37.4 9.5 78.2

0.8 39.1 9.7 78.8

0.8 42.1 10.2 81.2

6.0 3.3 1.0 6.9

3.0 26.8 9.3 55.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.5 2.5 1.9 2.5 0.0 10.4 13.3 3.7 23.8 0.0 2.0 6.8 1.6 4.3 0.0 4.7 47.7 15.4 51.7 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

147 67

151 67

157 66

164 65

163 64

167 62

176 61

189 59

139 65

139 65

146 65

153 64

161 63

165 61

175 60

188 58

47 24

46 23

45 22

44 22

44 21

34 20

28 19

28 19

91 41

93 42

101 42

108 43

117 42

131 42

147 41

160 39

8 2

12 2

12 2

11 1

3 1

2 1

1 1

1 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are World Bank staff estimates. Long-term private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

386

THAILAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

17,509 13,187 9,817 3,370 1,122 3,200 0 0 0

28,094 19,771 12,460 7,311 1 8,322 0 0 0

100,039 55,944 16,826 39,117 0 44,095 0 0 0

79,710 61,768 29,453 32,316 3,062 14,880 0 0 0

67,181 52,277 26,208 26,069 1,681 13,223 0 0 0

59,371 47,061 22,524 24,537 391 11,919 0 0 0

51,783 40,827 17,702 23,125 0 10,956 0 0 0

51,307 39,819 15,323 24,496 0 11,488 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

3,477 3,137 340 1,900 1,661 239 1,226 -351 1,360 910 72 377 -134 3,260 2,571 312 377

4,569 4,569 0 3,264 2,983 281 3,515 2,210 2,026 1,355 21 650 1,489 5,290 4,338 302 650

10,715 10,715 0 4,398 4,398 0 21,233 14,916 4,189 2,646 0 1,543 17,044 8,586 7,044 0 1,543

4,021 4,021 0 9,142 8,945 198 -13,659 -8,538 4,849 3,776 168 905 -18,508 13,991 12,721 366 905

8,649 8,649 0 17,009 15,720 1,289 -10,016 -1,657 3,303 2,617 124 562 -13,319 20,312 18,337 1,413 562

8,523 8,523 0 17,171 15,811 1,360 -9,952 -1,304 2,549 2,094 37 419 -12,501 19,720 17,905 1,396 419

6,463 6,463 0 12,962 12,559 402 -7,462 -963 2,107 1,719 5 382 -9,569 15,068 14,279 408 382

8,786 8,786 0 10,722 10,722 0 -1,404 532 1,654 1,269 0 384 -3,058 12,376 11,992 0 384

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

1,803 1,476 163 44 120 143

4,663 1,586 2,444 440 193 230

10,608 6,317 2,068 2,123 99 267

-619 -4,923 3,366 901 38 197

-2,783 -7,070 3,892 352 44 168

-5,745 -7,288 953 539 51 178

-2,311 -6,097 1,949 1,787 50 170

-763 -1,936 1,412 -295 57 161

861 910 32

2,996 1,355 312

7,962 2,646 0

-4,395 3,776 0

-5,400 2,617 0

-7,839 2,094 0

-4,030 1,719 0

-2,032 1,269 0

113,622 79,940 1,252 74,349 33,041 6,192

124,814 84,836 1,380 78,425 38,903 7,014

140,243 96,897 1,607 89,885 42,162 7,953

158,551 117,138 1,622 112,654 49,847 6,632

84.0 59.1 25.4 4.1 2.9 49.2 5.3 19.7 13.0 8.1

70.0 47.6 23.2 3.0 2.0 65.5 6.0 20.1 16.6 5.8

53.4 36.9 15.6 2.2 1.5 81.4 5.6 21.2 18.6 5.8

43.8 32.4 10.6 1.4 1.0 97.2 5.3 22.4 17.6 2.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

38,252 10,222 877 11,925 3,003 -1,537

84,272 31,289 973 38,783 14,258 -7,281

171.3 45.8 31.9 13.3 3.6 17.2 3.0 18.3 11.2 17.6

89.8 33.3 16.9 6.5 2.4 50.8 4.4 29.6 15.2 13.2

165,160 74,093 1,695 88,133 36,939 -13,554

120,809 85,997 1,697 77,269 32,665 9,313

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

135.0 60.6 11.6 5.7 2.5 36.9 5.0 44.1 7.1 3.2

387

92.7 66.0 16.3 5.6 4.0 41.0 5.1 18.7 11.5 6.7

THAILAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

13,187 9,817 5,710 3,089 193 2,621 1,763 4,107 637 2,511 3,370 0 3,370

19,771 12,460 8,283 3,716 247 4,567 4,034 4,177 738 2,126 7,311 40 7,272

55,944 16,826 11,187 3,206 291 7,981 6,845 5,639 1,574 3,045 39,117 7,375 31,743

61,768 29,453 20,820 5,330 212 15,489 8,980 8,633 2,630 5,116 32,316 8,414 23,901

52,277 26,208 19,083 5,434 194 13,649 8,537 7,125 2,399 3,956 26,069 6,972 19,097

47,061 22,524 16,241 3,452 185 12,789 9,649 6,283 2,142 3,720 24,537 6,263 18,274

40,827 17,702 13,115 3,020 181 10,095 9,433 4,586 2,308 1,880 23,125 4,639 18,486

39,819 15,323 10,727 1,310 170 9,416 8,834 4,596 3,507 724 24,496 3,997 20,499

2,202 105 9,817 3,370

2,421 109 12,460 7,311

1,805 102 16,826 39,117

2,940 90 29,453 32,316

2,998 86 26,208 26,069

2,346 83 22,524 24,537

2,098 79 17,702 23,125

483 76 15,323 24,496

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

3,137 2,353 786 428 28 358 225 1,566 143 1,152 784 0 784

4,569 1,277 886 263 2 624 504 391 0 110 3,292 0 3,292

10,715 2,758 1,417 358 17 1,059 1,043 1,341 242 1,088 7,956 2,080 5,876

4,021 3,021 2,156 751 0 1,405 1,399 865 0 455 1,000 0 1,000

8,649 2,312 1,953 504 0 1,448 1,437 359 288 2 6,338 0 6,338

8,523 1,672 1,149 180 0 969 966 523 0 519 6,851 48 6,803

6,463 1,429 939 73 0 867 867 490 300 190 5,033 0 5,033

8,786 1,873 473 57 0 416 416 1,400 1,400 0 6,913 0 6,913

276 8

174 0

146 0

456 0

365 0

104 0

44 0

33 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,661 875 231 105 3 125 42 644 8 478 786 0 786

2,983 2,393 788 438 8 349 102 1,605 87 1,324 591 0 591

4,398 1,888 925 360 11 566 447 962 199 430 2,510 0 2,510

8,945 3,010 1,666 753 14 912 623 1,344 174 1,072 5,935 1,044 4,890

15,720 3,739 2,132 349 13 1,783 725 1,607 467 1,024 11,981 1,426 10,555

15,811 6,547 5,335 2,231 14 3,104 608 1,212 300 841 9,264 758 8,506

12,559 6,460 5,047 515 12 4,532 1,917 1,413 192 1,159 6,099 1,637 4,463

10,722 4,097 3,123 1,770 13 1,352 1,256 975 163 766 6,625 640 5,985

75 0

207 1

201 2

181 3

260 3

800 3

294 3

1,648 3

910 602 325 211 2 115 44 277 47 154 308 0 308

1,355 874 442 284 5 158 110 432 46 227 481 2 479

2,646 874 521 218 8 302 224 353 97 195 1,772 222 1,550

3,776 1,577 1,008 350 6 658 252 569 193 353 2,199 476 1,723

2,617 1,403 944 342 5 602 222 460 178 266 1,214 399 814

2,094 1,070 745 344 2 401 209 325 142 171 1,023 325 698

1,719 858 608 205 2 403 228 250 124 116 861 283 578

1,269 736 469 259 2 209 193 267 212 46 534 220 313

158 1

188 1

135 1

178 1

189 1

191 1

150 1

219 1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

388

THAILAND (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 35.9 0.6 2.6 24.7

.. 42.7 0.4 5.7 15.8

.. 47.7 0.2 0.9 27.2

.. 46.3 0.1 0.0 46.3

1.6 44.6 0.1 0.0 48.1

1.7 56.6 0.1 0.0 38.5

2.2 61.7 0.1 0.0 32.9

2.5 64.4 0.1 0.0 30.3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2,519 4,606 34,505 -17,060 -12,529 1,226 3,515 21,233 -13,659 -10,016 1,022 1,024 -182 -1,966 -1,917 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-7,810 -9,952 1,482

-7,588 -7,462 1,662

-476 -1,404 351

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.3 18.5 9.7 11.5

4.8 22.2 7.2 38.4

5.7 14.8 5.2 25.6

1.5 29.0 6.9 59.9

2.1 7.3 2.3 28.9

2.2 24.9 4.6 45.3

2.0 6.6 3.6 27.5

2.8 5.0 5.0 22.3

7.8 23.0 6.2 16.6

4.4 25.6 7.8 43.3

4.4 23.5 6.4 40.9

1.5 38.1 8.2 71.1

2.4 8.9 1.5 30.8

2.2 36.3 6.9 63.5

3.0 17.4 5.7 44.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.6 5.8 6.6 1.6 1.8 2.3 15.7 15.0 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.3 11.8 5.9 4.3 3.6 3.0 0.3 8.4 27.9 15.2 32.7 27.2 12.5 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

1.8 4.7 3.2 24.6

2.8 5.0 5.0 22.3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

11,812 930

6,370 731

7,030 615

3,333 504

1,940 414

1,706 372

1,637 331

610 191

778 271

806 262

926 249

983 231

714 196

740 176

703 156

581 138

662 211

687 200

806 186

562 168

588 155

609 141

571 126

464 114

116 60

119 62

120 63

421 63

126 41

131 36

132 30

117 25

11,034 658

5,564 470

6,104 365

2,350 273

1,225 218

966 196

934 175

30 53

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are based on official government data. Projected debt service is based on contractual obligations on debt outstanding at the end of 2004.

389

TOGO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

935 787 787 0 74 74 0 0 0

1,281 1,081 1,081 0 87 113 1 1 0

1,476 1,286 1,286 0 105 85 27 13 14

1,432 1,230 1,230 0 70 133 63 63 0

1,407 1,204 1,204 0 57 146 62 62 0

1,587 1,337 1,337 0 52 198 96 96 0

1,715 1,497 1,497 0 42 176 134 134 0

1,812 1,597 1,597 0 27 188 162 162 0

0 0 0

3 2 1

64 18 45

65 65 0

94 94 0

155 155 0

222 222 0

318 318 0

71 56 15 62 51 11 19 11 49 39 4 6 -29 111 90 15 6

110 89 21 43 27 16 16 -51 43 33 4 6 -27 86 60 20 6

59 26 33 18 7 11 39 -2 11 8 1 3 27 29 14 12 3

24 24 0 19 10 9 -44 -49 10 5 0 5 -55 30 15 10 5

32 32 0 22 11 10 24 14 11 6 0 5 13 32 17 11 5

11 11 0 10 1 9 20 19 3 0 0 2 17 13 1 10 2

3 3 0 14 1 14 -72 -60 3 0 0 2 -74 17 1 14 2

18 18 0 18 2 16 -16 -16 3 2 0 1 -19 21 4 16 1

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

168 4 16 0 147 30

204 62 18 4 120 60

168 19 26 0 123 32

111 14 42 6 49 23

119 20 64 2 33 24

103 10 54 6 32 27

79 2 34 10 33 34

112 16 60 3 37 35

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

120 39 9

156 33 15

159 8 2

89 5 17

88 6 25

84 0 19

60 0 19

91 2 0

1,302 472 34 664 152 -140

1,282 506 69 701 126 -169

1,426 627 103 772 205 -140

1,699 848 149 1,009 205 -162

2,024 .. 149 .. 360 ..

303.3 110.0 6.3 2.2 0.8 10.6 2.8 9.3 70.2 53.5

277.9 109.7 6.4 2.1 0.8 9.0 2.2 10.4 70.2 53.5

253.0 111.3 2.0 0.4 0.2 12.9 3.2 12.5 68.7 51.8

202.4 101.0 2.0 0.3 0.2 11.9 2.4 10.3 70.1 52.7

.. 89.6 .. .. 0.1 19.8 .. 10.4 67.3 52.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

725 408 15 497 301 -27

1,598 723 27 912 358 -84

229.3 128.9 27.3 12.0 6.7 32.2 7.3 7.9 30.4 31.1

177.2 80.1 11.9 6.0 2.7 28.0 4.7 8.8 55.1 43.7

1,265 489 15 713 130 -122

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

302.1 116.7 6.0 2.3 0.9 8.8 2.2 5.8 61.8 48.3

390

TOGO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

787 787 701 291 232 410 52 86 0 60 0 0 0

1,081 1,081 1,029 560 516 469 189 52 0 51 0 0 0

1,286 1,286 1,235 713 681 522 232 52 0 52 0 0 0

1,230 1,230 1,230 766 750 464 256 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,204 1,204 1,204 754 739 451 249 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,337 1,337 1,337 822 806 515 284 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,497 1,497 1,497 905 884 593 319 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,597 1,597 1,597 957 922 641 298 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 161 787 0

5 393 1,081 0

0 541 1,286 0

0 604 1,230 0

0 585 1,204 0

0 632 1,337 0

0 687 1,497 0

0 715 1,597 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

56 56 56 41 38 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0

89 89 89 45 44 44 44 0 0 0 0 0 0

26 26 26 26 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

24 24 24 21 21 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

32 32 32 24 24 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 11 11 9 9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

3 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

18 18 18 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 30

0 31

0 20

0 15

0 12

0 7

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

51 51 38 8 1 30 1 14 0 9 0 0 0

27 27 27 17 5 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

7 7 7 6 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

10 10 10 9 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

11 11 11 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 0

8 1

0 3

0 5

0 10

0 0

0 0

0 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

39 39 31 6 2 25 1 8 0 7 0 0 0

33 33 28 8 4 20 4 5 0 5 0 0 0

8 8 8 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

5 5 5 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6 6 6 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 1

1 3

0 4

0 3

0 5

0 0

0 0

0 0

391

TOGO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 3.9 10.4 35.0

.. 3.0 1.9 10.3 44.2

.. 3.3 1.7 10.9 47.4

.. 6.2 1.6 7.8 52.5

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

19 79 133 0 0 0 1 0 16 66 64 0 3 66 63 0 12 0 1 0 2 12 63 0 1 12 63 0 1 0 0 0 9 18 85 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 127 104 20 -91 19 16 39 -44 110 42 -20 -66 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

15.9 5.5 1.6 7.9 52.8

17.0 5.5 1.6 8.6 51.0

18.2 5.5 1.6 8.6 49.0

17.6 5.3 1.7 9.7 48.5

6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-25 24 -40

179 20 115

129 -72 138

97 -16 73

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.8 48.9 10.3 82.6

0.7 39.5 10.4 80.2

0.7 37.6 9.9 79.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 24.9 7.4 56.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 13.7 1.1 40.8

2.1 32.1 7.6 63.3

0.8 48.9 10.3 82.6

0.7 39.5 10.4 80.2

0.7 37.6 9.9 79.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 24.9 7.4 56.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.3 13.7 1.1 40.8

2.1 32.1 7.6 63.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

46 24

48 23

51 23

54 21

53 20

53 19

54 18

56 17

46 24

48 23

51 23

54 21

53 20

53 19

54 18

56 17

20 16

19 15

21 14

22 14

20 13

20 12

20 11

21 11

26 9

29 8

30 8

32 8

33 8

34 7

35 7

35 6

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on data provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004 and commercial bank arrangements until end-1996.

392

TONGA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

24.4 23.7 23.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

51.9 42.7 42.7 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

62.8 61.5 61.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

60.2 59.9 59.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

58.2 57.9 57.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0

67.6 67.2 67.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0

79.5 79.1 79.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0

81.0 80.7 80.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.3 0.3 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.0

0.9 0.9 0.0

1.4 1.4 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.1

3.2 3.2 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 10.4 8.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.4 9.5 1.9 1.5 0.0 0.4

6.2 6.2 0.0 2.3 2.3 0.0 4.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.1

5.2 5.2 0.0 3.1 3.1 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.8 3.8 0.0 0.0

2.7 2.7 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.0 0.0

5.6 5.6 0.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 0.0 0.0

11.2 11.2 0.0 1.9 1.9 0.0 9.3 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 8.6 2.6 2.6 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 0.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 -1.1 -0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 -1.8 2.9 2.9 0.0 0.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

7.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.0 6.5

19.0 2.2 0.0 -0.1 16.9 10.9

22.3 3.9 0.0 0.0 18.3 16.4

8.9 2.1 0.0 0.0 6.9 11.2

10.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 9.7 12.8

7.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 4.0 15.7

16.3 9.4 0.0 0.0 6.9 14.1

5.2 -0.9 0.0 0.0 6.1 15.1

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

6.7 0.2 0.0

18.2 0.5 0.3

20.6 0.7 0.0

7.3 0.7 0.0

10.2 0.5 0.0

6.2 0.6 0.7

15.6 0.7 0.0

4.4 0.7 0.0

154.0 .. 0.0 .. 27.0 ..

133.4 84.4 53.0 93.5 26.1 -10.8

144.8 109.3 66.0 109.1 27.7 -3.3

167.0 .. 66.0 .. 42.6 ..

212.1 .. 66.0 .. 58.3 ..

.. 39.1 .. .. 0.4 44.9 .. 0.4 97.1 84.2

68.9 43.6 2.6 0.6 0.4 44.9 3.3 0.5 97.5 79.8

61.9 46.7 2.5 0.6 0.4 41.0 3.0 0.6 97.5 82.0

.. 47.6 .. .. 0.4 53.6 .. 0.4 97.8 81.2

.. 38.2 .. .. 0.4 72.0 .. 0.4 97.8 82.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

62.7 45.5 22.0 46.5 27.5 1.6

116.5 66.5 24.0 75.0 31.3 5.8

53.8 39.0 1.8 0.6 0.4 112.6 7.1 2.9 88.0 39.3

78.1 44.5 2.8 1.3 0.7 60.4 5.0 17.8 74.8 40.3

168.6 .. 0.0 .. 28.7 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. 37.3 .. .. 0.5 45.7 .. 2.1 84.0 64.3

393

TONGA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

23.7 23.7 23.7 9.6 7.9 14.1 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

42.7 42.7 42.7 20.9 18.0 21.7 20.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

61.5 61.5 57.2 40.4 36.0 16.8 16.8 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

59.9 59.9 59.9 50.7 49.1 9.3 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

57.9 57.9 57.9 46.5 45.3 11.4 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

67.2 67.2 67.2 55.4 54.1 11.8 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

79.1 79.1 79.1 64.5 63.1 14.6 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

80.7 80.7 80.7 66.7 65.2 14.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 23.7 0.0

0.0 2.6 42.7 0.0

0.0 4.8 61.5 0.0

0.0 4.0 59.9 0.0

0.0 3.8 57.9 0.0

0.0 4.2 67.2 0.0

0.0 7.4 79.1 0.0

0.0 8.9 80.7 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.2 5.2 5.2 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.7 2.7 2.7 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5.6 5.6 5.6 5.2 5.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

11.2 11.2 11.2 8.7 8.7 2.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 1.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 2.6

0.0 1.2

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.3 2.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.1 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.1 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.2 2.2 2.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

394

TONGA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 12.9 0.0 3.3

.. 0.0 6.2 0.0 1.1

.. 0.0 1.6 0.0 11.0

.. 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.4

12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3

10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8

9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6

8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 5.2 14.3 5.5 -2.9 -2.0 0.9 10.4 4.2 2.1 1.1 3.1 2.9 1.0 -3.7 -2.9 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.4 3.6 4.5

11.9 9.3 6.3

1.5 -1.1 2.3

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 39.7 10.2 79.5

4.4 39.0 9.5 47.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 12.1 4.6 40.0

1.1 29.6 9.1 71.2

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 39.7 10.2 79.5

4.4 39.0 9.5 47.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.5 12.1 4.6 40.0

1.1 29.6 9.1 71.2

0.8 39.8 10.3 80.7

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3.1 1.4

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.3

3.7 1.2

2.9 1.2

3.3 1.1

3.6 1.1

3.7 1.1

3.1 1.4

3.3 1.4

3.3 1.3

3.7 1.2

2.9 1.2

3.3 1.1

3.6 1.1

3.7 1.1

1.1 0.2

1.7 0.2

1.7 0.1

2.0 0.1

1.2 0.1

1.2 0.1

1.0 0.0

1.0 0.0

2.0 1.3

1.6 1.2

1.6 1.2

1.6 1.1

1.7 1.1

2.1 1.1

2.6 1.1

2.8 1.1

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

395

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,448 1,299 1,299 0 0 149 0 0 0

2,511 2,055 1,782 273 329 127 0 0 0

2,596 1,890 1,800 90 50 656 7 2 5

2,546 1,695 1,585 110 0 851 1 0 0

2,506 1,645 1,535 110 0 861 1 0 0

2,522 1,657 1,547 110 0 865 0 0 0

2,601 1,711 1,601 110 0 890 0 0 0

2,926 1,531 1,421 110 0 1,395 0 0 0

0 0 0

37 6 31

111 9 102

49 1 47

47 1 46

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

299 299 0 155 155 0 133 -10 109 96 0 13 24 264 251 0 13

188 85 103 233 233 0 -45 0 216 177 24 15 -262 449 410 24 15

127 127 0 243 200 44 210 326 177 148 4 25 33 420 347 48 25

416 416 0 332 332 0 112 28 174 118 0 56 -61 505 449 0 56

61 61 0 78 78 0 -8 9 154 114 0 39 -161 232 192 0 39

44 44 0 68 68 0 -19 5 180 143 0 37 -199 248 211 0 37

82 82 0 73 73 0 35 25 157 130 0 26 -122 229 203 0 26

44 44 0 240 240 0 309 505 161 129 0 32 148 401 369 0 32

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

148 143 1 0 4 4

-26 -148 109 0 13 5

253 -72 299 17 10 5

765 84 680 0 1 5

819 -17 835 0 1 7

769 -24 791 0 2 8

820 10 808 0 2 6

808 -196 1,001 0 3 9

-238 96 290

-401 177 197

-81 148 187

297 118 0

310 114 0

461 143 165

324 130 366

360 129 0

7,526 4,963 38 4,419 1,403 544

8,286 5,028 41 4,604 1,924 416

8,381 4,700 79 4,599 2,049 76

10,149 6,055 87 5,042 2,477 985

11,771 .. 87 .. 3,195 ..

51.3 33.8 10.2 3.5 2.3 55.1 3.8 33.4 0.4 24.9

49.8 30.2 4.6 3.1 1.9 76.8 5.0 34.3 0.4 24.2

53.7 30.1 5.3 3.8 2.1 81.2 5.3 34.3 0.1 24.2

43.0 25.6 3.8 2.6 1.5 95.2 5.9 34.2 0.1 24.9

.. 24.9 .. .. 1.4 109.2 .. 47.7 0.1 21.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

7,026 2,602 3 2,625 1,146 -48

4,673 2,331 3 1,863 513 459

55.7 20.6 10.2 4.2 1.6 79.1 5.2 10.3 0.6 3.9

107.7 53.7 19.3 9.3 4.6 20.4 3.3 5.1 2.1 4.1

4,864 2,906 32 2,577 379 294

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

89.3 53.4 14.4 6.1 3.6 14.6 1.8 25.3 1.1 20.3

396

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,299 1,299 367 57 2 310 7 932 170 623 0 0 0

2,055 1,782 634 103 6 532 48 1,147 335 624 273 0 273

1,890 1,800 957 527 3 430 24 843 300 433 90 0 90

1,695 1,585 642 634 7 8 2 943 876 47 110 110 0

1,645 1,535 613 607 10 5 1 923 863 46 110 110 0

1,657 1,547 626 610 4 16 0 921 872 49 110 110 0

1,711 1,601 664 648 4 17 0 937 883 54 110 110 0

1,531 1,421 626 618 4 8 0 794 736 59 110 110 0

38 0 1,299 0

41 0 1,782 273

72 0 1,800 90

89 0 1,585 110

90 0 1,535 110

87 0 1,547 110

85 0 1,601 110

70 0 1,421 110

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

299 299 42 3 0 39 0 256 63 136 0 0 0

85 85 43 39 0 4 0 42 0 0 0 0 0

127 127 127 125 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

416 416 64 63 1 0 0 352 352 0 0 0 0

61 61 61 61 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44 44 44 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

82 82 82 82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

44 44 44 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0

19 0

15 0

13 0

11 0

8 0

12 0

2 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

155 155 51 6 0 45 1 104 7 60 0 0 0

233 189 13 10 0 3 0 176 52 99 44 0 44

200 172 82 13 1 69 6 91 0 51 27 0 27

332 298 104 71 1 33 2 194 122 56 34 0 34

78 78 74 71 1 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0

68 68 68 61 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

73 73 73 66 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

240 240 90 81 0 9 0 150 150 0 0 0 0

4 0

6 0

6 0

10 0

10 0

11 0

14 0

18 0

96 96 32 4 0 28 0 64 8 45 0 0 0

177 151 51 6 0 45 2 101 25 55 26 0 26

148 141 66 30 0 36 1 74 32 33 7 0 7

118 109 49 47 0 2 0 60 44 13 8 8 0

114 106 45 44 0 1 0 62 60 0 8 8 0

143 135 39 37 0 2 0 96 91 5 8 8 0

130 122 37 36 0 1 0 85 80 6 8 8 0

129 121 34 33 0 1 0 87 81 7 8 8 0

3 0

2 0

5 0

7 0

7 0

6 0

5 0

5 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

397

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 24.9 0.0 4.2 60.7

.. 34.8 3.4 0.0 44.9

.. 21.0 2.8 0.2 43.5

.. 7.7 2.9 0.1 62.6

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 262 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 262 0 0 0 56 0 0 0 206 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 226 374 241 84 133 -45 210 112 72 111 11 -15 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

1.5 6.6 2.9 0.0 66.1

0.0 7.0 3.2 0.0 68.3

0.0 7.5 3.4 0.0 69.9

0.0 8.0 4.1 0.0 68.9

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-40 -8 -33

16 -19 49

80 35 40

324 309 14

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.6 7.5 3.7 5.4

8.0 14.9 4.6 10.7

6.5 17.5 4.1 20.5

8.0 23.0 23.0 16.9

3.7 12.1 9.1 39.4

6.2 25.0 4.0 25.7

4.0 12.6 3.2 30.9

1.5 20.0 3.0 53.2

8.5 11.5 4.6 7.8

7.9 18.1 5.4 12.0

6.5 17.5 4.1 20.5

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.7 12.1 9.1 39.4

6.2 25.0 4.0 25.7

4.0 12.6 3.2 30.9

1.5 20.0 3.0 53.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

8.6 8.1 0.0 8.0 0.0 6.6 9.8 0.0 23.0 0.0 3.5 3.3 0.0 23.0 0.0 4.8 8.6 0.0 16.9 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

96 114

248 112

90 96

92 91

316 86

74 59

62 55

51 53

82 36

85 35

77 33

79 30

79 27

74 23

62 19

51 16

1 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

81 36

83 35

77 33

79 30

79 27

74 23

62 19

51 16

13 78

163 76

13 63

13 61

237 59

0 36

0 36

0 36

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

398

TUNISIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,883 4,700 4,454 246 0 183 1 1 1

7,688 6,878 6,660 218 176 634 0 0 0

10,818 9,215 9,022 193 293 1,310 0 0 0

11,307 9,684 8,884 800 32 1,590 0 0 0

11,739 10,187 9,069 1,118 0 1,552 0 0 0

14,003 12,316 10,930 1,386 0 1,687 0 0 0

16,736 14,784 13,228 1,556 0 1,952 0 0 0

18,700 16,243 14,574 1,669 0 2,457 0 0 0

16 12 3

15 8 7

1 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

794 794 0 475 475 0 332 13 271 250 0 20 61 746 725 0 20

1,017 1,017 0 984 872 111 292 259 447 394 23 30 -156 1,431 1,267 135 30

1,389 1,389 0 939 924 15 654 204 541 486 17 38 113 1,480 1,409 32 38

1,542 1,542 0 1,336 1,295 40 259 52 570 489 3 78 -312 1,906 1,785 43 78

1,892 1,892 0 897 866 31 956 -38 485 428 1 57 471 1,383 1,294 32 57

2,038 2,038 0 936 936 0 1,237 135 535 506 0 29 702 1,471 1,442 0 29

2,101 2,101 0 1,007 1,007 0 1,359 265 596 573 0 22 763 1,603 1,581 0 22

1,914 1,914 0 1,331 1,331 0 1,088 505 703 637 0 66 385 2,034 1,968 0 66

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

457 319 108 0 30 54

399 144 76 5 174 100

799 465 264 12 59 122

1,025 246 752 -18 44 96

1,563 1,026 457 -15 95 91

2,018 1,102 795 6 114 98

1,747 1,094 541 14 98 130

1,337 583 593 24 137 143

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

69 250 138

-92 394 97

139 486 175

68 489 468

656 428 480

1,039 506 473

636 573 537

22 637 678

19,033 10,562 927 11,457 2,050 -840

20,028 10,681 1,071 11,487 2,365 -746

23,964 12,295 1,250 13,082 3,036 -730

26,948 14,854 1,432 15,511 4,031 -555

111.1 61.7 13.1 4.6 2.5 17.5 2.1 13.2 22.2 30.9

131.1 69.9 13.8 5.0 2.7 16.9 2.5 12.0 21.1 31.9

136.1 69.8 13.0 4.8 2.5 18.1 2.8 11.7 20.2 32.4

125.9 69.4 13.7 4.7 2.6 21.6 3.1 13.1 19.4 32.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

8,058 2,983 271 3,606 294 -581

11,882 5,851 551 6,591 867 -463

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

163.7 60.6 25.0 9.1 3.4 6.0 1.0 3.8 38.1 17.1

131.4 64.7 24.5 7.6 3.8 11.3 1.6 8.2 36.2 29.0

17,113 8,778 680 9,646 1,689 -774

18,520 9,497 796 10,347 1,871 -821

4. DEBT INDICATORS 123.2 63.2 16.9 6.2 3.2 15.6 2.1 12.1 28.1 35.0

399

119.1 61.1 20.1 6.0 3.1 16.6 2.2 14.1 23.1 30.5

TUNISIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

4,700 4,454 3,040 836 134 2,203 1,728 1,414 60 491 246 0 246

6,878 6,660 5,240 2,233 229 3,008 2,551 1,420 0 339 218 0 218

9,215 9,022 7,398 3,783 425 3,616 2,612 1,624 535 236 193 0 193

9,684 8,884 6,065 3,452 475 2,614 2,134 2,819 1,327 809 800 0 800

10,187 9,069 6,159 3,627 539 2,532 2,072 2,911 1,642 695 1,118 0 1,118

12,316 10,930 7,219 4,470 662 2,748 2,296 3,711 2,433 738 1,386 0 1,386

14,784 13,228 8,540 5,427 765 3,114 2,620 4,687 3,315 898 1,556 0 1,556

16,243 14,574 9,364 6,136 893 3,229 2,741 5,209 3,740 1,028 1,669 0 1,669

558 65 4,443 256

1,347 59 6,660 218

1,717 49 9,016 200

1,211 39 8,884 800

1,297 37 9,069 1,118

1,464 35 10,930 1,386

1,779 33 13,228 1,556

1,824 30 14,574 1,669

794 734 415 158 10 257 136 320 0 182 60 0 60

1,017 987 699 430 45 269 177 288 0 88 30 0 30

1,389 1,359 611 467 48 145 130 747 588 56 30 0 30

1,542 1,242 707 427 93 281 278 535 0 489 300 0 300

1,892 1,542 1,013 702 107 311 247 529 453 42 350 0 350

2,038 1,738 988 772 128 216 168 750 650 88 300 0 300

2,101 1,899 1,050 753 111 297 221 849 632 167 202 0 202

1,914 1,759 1,036 741 155 295 222 723 559 140 155 0 155

109 0

213 0

138 0

136 0

293 0

117 0

251 0

138 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

475 440 195 61 2 134 62 244 0 77 36 0 36

872 835 357 168 7 189 142 478 60 113 37 0 37

924 889 639 363 18 276 189 250 0 63 35 0 35

1,295 1,263 661 408 31 253 172 602 371 134 32 0 32

866 834 636 362 37 274 168 198 0 103 32 0 32

936 904 718 451 40 267 172 186 0 94 32 0 32

1,007 975 775 482 42 292 208 201 0 112 32 0 32

1,331 1,289 876 527 37 349 236 413 277 62 42 0 42

47 1

111 1

203 2

150 2

146 2

154 2

205 2

226 2

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

250 233 133 52 3 81 47 100 6 38 18 0 18

394 384 249 149 6 100 73 136 5 35 10 0 10

486 478 368 255 13 113 76 110 14 18 8 0 8

489 479 295 213 16 82 53 184 99 38 10 0 10

428 419 261 179 20 82 53 158 87 33 9 0 9

506 468 294 226 22 68 51 174 119 23 38 0 38

573 529 308 233 28 75 56 221 163 29 44 0 44

637 559 322 245 27 78 64 237 182 34 78 0 78

41 1

103 0

129 0

79 0

80 0

79 0

81 0

77 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

400

TUNISIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 8.6 0.1 0.6 33.6

.. 8.6 0.1 0.6 21.8

.. 13.5 0.0 0.2 17.5

.. 21.6 0.5 0.7 30.0

25.1 23.9 0.4 0.6 26.9

27.1 21.9 0.4 0.7 28.2

32.9 22.4 0.3 0.6 23.0

38.5 18.7 0.3 0.6 20.5

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 789 715 1,205 -553 433 332 292 654 259 956 419 351 178 -409 -470 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,263 1,237 732

2,733 1,359 1,157

1,964 1,088 285

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

7.7 16.0 5.0 14.7

6.9 14.3 3.8 18.0

6.1 16.7 4.8 21.0

4.0 17.4 8.7 39.7

4.1 17.9 5.9 34.7

5.1 15.1 6.2 28.9

4.3 16.8 7.0 34.2

3.7 14.5 5.0 28.4

6.6 19.1 5.7 22.8

6.0 18.0 5.0 25.9

6.2 24.0 4.6 24.5

4.5 16.9 5.6 35.2

4.4 19.4 4.3 34.9

4.0 18.4 4.8 36.7

4.2 17.1 4.1 34.1

4.0 26.9 4.8 43.9

8.9 8.1 6.0 3.5 3.3 6.5 12.1 9.4 8.5 17.8 12.4 11.3 4.2 2.1 5.1 11.6 11.9 7.8 4.9 7.3 17.1 43.7 33.9 19.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

4.5 15.9 15.7 34.5

3.4 6.4 5.1 18.4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2,042 706

1,908 666

1,786 627

1,396 563

1,609 519

1,605 454

1,836 399

1,620 302

1,194 358

1,085 353

1,120 339

1,118 312

1,072 280

1,075 247

924 211

830 181

487 92

354 87

344 81

320 72

295 64

288 56

244 49

220 43

707 265

731 266

777 258

797 240

777 216

786 191

680 163

610 139

848 348

823 313

666 288

279 252

537 239

531 207

912 188

789 121

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Private nonguaranteed debt data are World Bank staff estimates based on information from the government. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

401

TURKEY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

26,013 19,927 19,568 359 1,326 4,759 0 0 0

49,424 39,924 38,870 1,054 0 9,500 0 0 0

73,781 57,396 50,317 7,079 685 15,701 0 0 0

117,335 84,247 56,419 27,828 4,176 28,912 0 0 0

113,351 82,889 54,237 28,652 14,117 16,345 0 0 0

131,185 92,675 60,220 32,455 22,086 16,424 0 0 0

145,411 98,306 64,507 33,799 24,092 23,013 0 0 0

161,595 108,188 68,212 39,976 21,507 31,900 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

2,803 2,803 0 2,630 2,379 251 1,752 1,579 1,971 1,332 161 479 -219 4,601 3,710 412 479

5,243 5,243 0 4,010 3,961 49 4,988 3,755 3,412 2,891 4 517 1,576 7,422 6,852 53 517

6,980 6,638 341 7,020 7,020 0 4,350 4,391 4,431 3,464 24 942 -80 11,451 10,485 24 942

26,580 23,122 3,459 13,864 13,777 87 18,157 5,440 6,867 5,015 52 1,800 11,289 20,731 18,792 139 1,800

24,288 12,963 11,324 16,180 15,075 1,105 -4,459 -12,567 6,185 5,165 432 588 -10,644 22,365 20,240 1,536 588

35,170 22,313 12,857 22,052 15,686 6,366 13,197 79 5,538 4,276 813 450 7,659 27,590 19,961 7,179 450

20,211 18,545 1,666 21,546 19,834 1,712 3,054 4,389 6,724 5,228 596 900 -3,670 28,270 25,062 2,308 900

30,709 29,533 1,176 26,155 21,475 4,681 13,441 8,887 7,785 5,326 959 1,500 5,656 33,940 26,801 5,639 1,500

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

638 424 99 0 115 26

2,859 1,282 684 89 804 148

1,137 -382 885 195 439 198

10,903 9,345 982 489 87 85

1,201 -2,112 3,266 -79 126 89

8,055 6,627 1,063 -16 381 96

1,513 -1,289 1,753 905 144 137

12,498 8,058 2,733 1,427 280 148

-792 1,332 98

-193 2,891 161

-2,639 3,464 312

5,609 5,015 279

-4,273 5,165 309

3,401 4,276 379

-4,318 5,228 603

6,256 5,326 916

143,674 55,971 2,786 52,788 19,911 3,390

182,204 59,348 1,936 61,369 28,348 -1,521

238,317 73,267 729 81,602 35,549 -8,037

301,675 94,503 804 110,369 37,304 -15,543

202.5 78.9 40.0 11.1 4.3 17.6 4.5 14.4 3.7 5.4

221.0 72.0 46.5 9.3 3.0 21.6 5.5 12.5 3.5 5.1

198.5 61.0 38.6 9.2 2.8 24.4 5.2 15.8 3.5 4.5

171.0 53.6 35.9 8.2 2.6 23.1 4.1 19.7 2.9 4.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

67,726 13,131 1,714 14,346 2,318 -1,013

152,220 25,205 3,246 28,949 7,626 -2,625

198.1 38.4 35.0 15.0 2.9 8.9 1.9 18.3 17.6 19.0

196.1 32.5 29.4 13.5 2.2 15.4 3.2 19.2 15.1 19.5

171,335 41,397 3,327 44,806 13,891 -2,338

200,887 58,546 4,560 68,579 23,515 -9,819

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

178.2 43.1 27.7 10.7 2.6 18.8 3.7 21.3 10.2 12.1

402

200.4 58.4 35.4 11.7 3.4 20.0 4.1 24.6 4.3 4.8

TURKEY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

19,927 19,568 12,274 4,949 276 7,325 4,310 7,295 17 6,150 359 0 359

39,924 38,870 18,150 9,627 825 8,523 6,625 20,720 4,976 13,403 1,054 16 1,038

57,396 50,317 17,324 8,962 1,145 8,362 6,413 32,993 13,646 15,643 7,079 149 6,929

84,247 56,419 13,171 5,672 468 7,499 4,530 43,248 21,993 19,411 27,828 1,784 26,044

82,889 54,237 12,767 6,078 271 6,689 3,894 41,469 20,800 19,117 28,652 1,652 27,000

92,675 60,220 13,680 6,658 257 7,021 4,334 46,541 23,130 22,014 32,455 1,882 30,572

98,306 64,507 13,401 6,591 267 6,810 4,784 51,106 26,677 23,338 33,799 1,529 32,271

108,188 68,212 13,843 7,889 330 5,954 4,282 54,370 29,067 24,549 39,976 2,050 37,926

3,432 177 19,441 486

6,272 157 38,570 1,354

4,939 130 50,131 7,265

3,634 101 56,401 27,846

4,707 95 54,233 28,656

5,367 89 60,220 32,455

5,214 83 64,460 33,846

6,153 77 68,076 40,112

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,803 2,761 1,416 770 21 646 215 1,345 0 1,023 42 0 42

5,243 4,700 2,138 1,083 12 1,056 900 2,561 644 1,435 543 0 543

6,638 4,862 808 466 8 342 117 4,053 2,343 1,256 1,777 0 1,777

23,122 14,241 2,764 1,505 1 1,259 362 11,477 7,114 4,258 8,881 454 8,427

12,963 6,725 2,246 1,793 11 453 148 4,479 2,138 2,171 6,238 0 6,238

22,313 7,462 1,792 1,161 0 631 370 5,670 3,148 2,390 14,851 200 14,651

18,545 6,902 884 445 25 439 273 6,019 4,171 1,786 11,643 0 11,643

29,533 10,010 2,176 1,914 68 262 188 7,834 5,668 2,137 19,523 700 18,823

636 0

627 0

422 0

1,291 0

1,537 0

1,031 0

276 0

1,499 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

2,379 2,245 993 197 6 795 168 1,252 6 938 134 0 134

3,961 3,677 1,920 825 23 1,094 364 1,758 47 1,204 283 0 283

7,020 5,987 1,991 1,229 54 762 465 3,996 1,716 1,579 1,033 0 1,033

13,777 6,301 1,770 1,044 32 726 440 4,531 1,869 1,808 7,476 0 7,476

15,075 7,696 2,066 1,301 182 764 407 5,630 2,507 2,614 7,379 124 7,255

15,686 6,474 1,568 676 25 892 412 4,907 2,553 1,993 9,211 0 9,211

19,834 8,532 2,103 710 27 1,394 429 6,429 2,939 3,028 11,303 431 10,872

21,475 8,569 2,053 715 15 1,338 880 6,516 4,086 2,043 12,906 172 12,734

155 4

620 4

882 6

486 6

432 6

437 6

496 6

580 6

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1,332 1,308 702 319 5 382 128 606 1 516 24 0 24

2,891 2,830 1,043 688 30 355 172 1,787 383 1,204 61 1 60

3,464 3,126 977 656 44 321 204 2,149 1,074 782 339 13 326

5,015 3,481 678 373 13 305 137 2,803 1,598 1,069 1,533 126 1,407

5,165 3,848 713 413 11 300 112 3,135 1,847 1,167 1,317 195 1,122

4,276 3,643 578 338 9 240 105 3,065 1,929 1,051 632 183 450

5,228 3,973 520 292 8 228 103 3,453 2,291 1,087 1,255 189 1,065

5,326 4,098 457 270 9 187 108 3,640 2,563 1,029 1,228 165 1,063

245 1

511 1

396 1

237 1

291 1

271 1

232 1

201 1

403

TURKEY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 5.4 1.7 5.5 47.2

.. 12.1 0.8 5.2 40.0

.. 23.3 0.9 2.9 38.3

.. 12.6 0.8 0.3 57.4

25.7 9.3 0.7 0.2 63.2

25.5 8.5 0.6 0.3 64.2

26.1 6.8 0.2 0.3 65.9

26.3 4.5 0.1 0.3 68.3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 4,404 7,847 7,532 15,093 -3,985 1,752 4,988 4,350 18,157 -4,459 1,935 1,874 675 -2,016 -1,838 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

17,834 13,197 4,332

14,226 3,054 5,831

16,184 13,441 2,542

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.6 11.5 3.7 6.6

8.4 10.2 4.6 9.2

6.2 5.4 2.9 11.5

8.2 11.6 7.7 5.7

6.6 9.8 4.3 17.9

6.2 9.4 4.8 17.0

7.2 9.5 6.5 13.4

5.5 13.8 10.3 24.8

7.8 16.6 5.2 12.5

6.7 17.0 7.3 23.4

5.4 17.7 5.7 27.6

6.9 15.1 5.0 17.9

4.3 14.8 5.0 32.7

3.4 14.8 5.1 36.4

4.0 17.8 5.5 36.8

2.7 17.8 5.3 45.4

7.6 6.7 4.6 7.3

7.5 8.7 6.6 11.3

6.4 12.6 11.9 18.3

9.3 9.4 6.3 8.5 8.6 7.8 6.5 4.5 10.8 5.6 2.6 3.2 2.7 8.3 3.6 2.3 1.5 10.3 2.7 5.4 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

23,008 6,171

14,289 5,477

11,198 4,760

9,835 4,020

8,748 3,461

6,621 2,902

5,422 2,810

3,438 1,838

1,728 526

1,635 500

1,568 466

1,505 421

1,592 371

1,398 311

1,277 263

1,172 220

860 181

706 160

664 141

605 123

665 105

474 78

366 66

323 56

867 345

929 340

904 324

900 298

926 267

924 233

911 197

849 164

21,280 5,645

12,654 4,977

9,630 4,295

8,330 3,600

7,156 3,090

5,223 2,591

4,145 2,547

2,266 1,618

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, private nonguaranteed, and short-term debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Long-term debt data include nonresident deposits made under the Dresdner Bank scheme, amounting to $14.2 billion at end-2004.

404

UGANDA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

1,231 886 886 0 305 40 18 10 9

2,582 2,160 2,160 0 282 140 83 32 51

3,582 3,072 3,072 0 417 93 59 47 12

3,497 3,051 3,051 0 316 129 58 56 2

3,731 3,305 3,305 0 275 151 78 77 2

3,992 3,577 3,577 0 257 158 74 73 2

4,555 4,170 4,170 0 236 148 73 73 0

4,822 4,497 4,497 0 192 133 74 74 0

41 8 34

215 93 122

211 147 64

124 108 16

187 164 23

207 186 21

198 198 0

205 205 0

184 184 0 105 38 67 75 -4 50 18 30 2 25 155 56 97 2

372 293 79 109 65 43 269 6 36 18 13 5 233 145 84 56 5

290 234 56 97 69 28 189 -4 38 34 2 2 150 135 103 30 2

230 219 12 48 26 21 177 -6 26 21 2 4 151 74 47 23 4

355 344 11 33 18 15 324 1 18 12 1 4 306 50 30 16 4

163 162 2 45 26 19 129 11 25 23 1 1 104 71 49 20 1

332 326 6 57 32 25 266 -9 27 25 1 1 239 84 57 26 1

214 211 3 66 37 29 132 -15 37 34 1 2 95 103 71 30 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

190 146 -4 0 47 37

485 227 0 0 257 91

687 165 121 0 400 147

881 192 161 0 527 131

850 326 151 0 373 139

815 135 185 1 494 156

1,031 294 202 1 534 178

1,313 174 222 1 916 214

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

172 18 0

466 18 0

593 34 60

841 21 19

772 12 66

730 23 63

923 25 83

1,183 34 95

5,785 954 238 1,574 808 -359

5,540 1,074 338 1,682 983 -368

5,716 1,153 415 1,746 934 -360

6,110 1,171 286 1,935 1,080 -352

6,684 1,494 306 2,362 1,308 -200

366.4 60.4 7.8 2.7 0.5 23.1 6.2 3.7 83.4 75.3

347.5 67.4 4.7 1.6 0.3 26.4 7.0 4.0 82.0 75.7

346.3 69.8 6.1 2.2 0.4 23.4 6.4 4.0 85.5 79.4

388.9 74.5 7.2 2.3 0.4 23.7 6.7 3.3 87.6 83.1

322.7 72.2 6.9 2.5 0.6 27.1 6.6 2.8 89.3 85.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

3,467 372 0 389 27 5

4,227 178 0 734 44 -263

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

330.7 35.5 41.6 13.3 1.4 2.2 0.8 3.3 38.5 39.9

1,452.4 61.1 81.4 20.2 0.8 1.7 0.7 5.4 56.2 49.2

5,698 682 0 1,603 459 -281

4. DEBT INDICATORS 525.2 62.9 19.8 5.6 0.7 12.8 3.4 2.6 77.4 61.8

405

UGANDA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

886 886 682 491 359 191 116 204 0 52 0 0 0

2,160 2,160 1,826 1,270 1,129 556 322 335 4 89 0 0 0

3,072 3,072 2,985 2,215 2,134 770 639 87 4 21 0 0 0

3,051 3,051 3,027 2,634 2,578 393 338 24 4 9 0 0 0

3,305 3,305 3,272 2,823 2,777 449 282 33 4 12 0 0 0

3,577 3,577 3,547 3,170 3,105 377 310 30 4 4 0 0 0

4,170 4,170 4,153 3,783 3,673 371 314 17 0 4 0 0 0

4,497 4,497 4,473 4,105 3,994 368 313 24 0 3 0 0 0

37 285 883 3

34 935 2,157 3

0 1,792 3,066 6

0 2,115 3,047 5

0 2,310 3,300 5

0 2,576 3,573 4

0 3,061 4,166 4

0 3,303 4,493 4

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

184 184 153 139 103 14 4 31 0 10 0 0 0

293 293 254 219 215 36 23 38 0 4 0 0 0

234 234 234 213 203 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

219 219 219 218 217 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

344 344 340 338 338 2 0 4 0 4 0 0 0

162 162 156 136 135 21 20 5 0 0 0 0 0

326 326 318 318 282 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0

211 211 203 203 203 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0

0 92

0 199

0 159

0 190

0 298

0 109

0 260

0 138

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

38 38 13 7 3 6 2 25 0 5 0 0 0

65 65 44 19 4 25 4 22 0 14 0 0 0

69 69 60 49 18 11 4 9 0 7 0 0 0

26 26 25 9 7 16 10 1 0 1 0 0 0

18 18 17 14 7 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0

26 26 26 21 17 4 3 1 0 1 0 0 0

32 32 31 26 19 5 4 1 0 1 0 0 0

37 37 36 30 21 6 4 1 0 1 0 0 0

1 0

4 2

12 8

0 3

0 5

0 14

0 16

0 17

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

18 18 13 9 4 4 1 5 0 2 0 0 0

18 18 17 13 6 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 0

34 34 32 22 16 10 7 2 0 2 0 0 0

21 21 20 10 9 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

12 12 10 10 10 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 0

23 23 22 20 19 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 25 23 22 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

34 34 34 32 30 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 3

2 5

1 13

0 6

0 9

0 15

0 18

0 24

406

UGANDA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.2 6.8 2.0 44.2

.. 0.3 6.7 0.0 53.4

.. 1.2 2.1 0.0 66.5

.. 1.8 0.6 0.0 62.5

1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 66.3

2.2 1.5 0.1 0.0 65.3

2.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 66.8

2.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 67.2

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 16 172 35 0 0 0 142 38 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 30 0 0 0 1 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 51 0 13 24 1 1 1 11 9 0 0 40 165 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 161 406 210 -1 234 75 269 189 177 324 34 201 49 -150 -122 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 3 108 0

24 10 8 2 6 1 0 1 26 5 9 0

3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 3 0 0

261 129 224

563 266 291

268 132 139

3.5 30.8 7.3 49.0

1.0 33.0 9.0 68.4

0.9 39.2 10.0 79.4

1.0 39.2 7.7 74.9

0.8 39.7 11.3 79.9

0.8 38.4 9.6 77.8

0.7 47.0 10.3 82.6

0.8 39.4 9.9 80.2

3.1 38.7 9.0 60.4

1.1 36.5 9.9 74.9

0.9 39.2 10.0 79.4

0.8 40.0 7.9 76.7

0.8 39.7 11.3 79.9

0.8 38.4 9.6 77.8

0.7 47.0 10.3 82.6

0.8 39.4 9.9 80.2

8.0 2.2 0.7 2.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

4.7 0.5 0.0 7.5 0.0 5.2 1.3 0.0 8.2 0.0 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.8 0.0 12.3 8.8 0.0 9.6 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

89 36

97 36

101 36

104 36

110 35

114 35

124 34

136 33

88 36

96 36

100 36

104 35

110 35

113 35

124 34

136 33

10 3

11 3

10 2

10 2

10 2

10 2

9 2

7 1

78 33

85 33

90 33

94 33

100 33

104 33

115 33

129 32

1 0

1 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

1 0

0 0

0 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Debt data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004. Debt reduction: As a result of the September 2000 Paris Club agreement on Lyon terms, the stock of debt was reduced by $165 million at the end of 2000.

407

UKRAINE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

8,429 6,664 6,581 84 1,542 223 35 5 30

12,190 9,670 8,142 1,528 2,073 447 183 25 159

12,713 10,060 8,099 1,961 1,911 742 149 17 132

13,478 11,024 8,272 2,752 1,876 578 8 0 8

16,207 13,140 8,891 4,250 1,836 1,230 158 0 158

21,652 18,279 10,729 7,551 1,605 1,767 185 0 185

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

88 17 71

567 143 424

611 294 317

351 282 69

257 0 257

288 0 288

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,997 801 1,196 636 636 0 1,337 -24 501 447 42 12 836 1,137 1,083 42 12

1,638 1,387 251 2,952 2,103 849 -1,287 26 709 573 122 14 -1,996 3,661 2,676 971 14

2,148 1,778 370 1,645 1,185 460 833 329 648 540 87 21 185 2,293 1,724 547 21

2,861 2,861 0 2,617 2,434 182 222 -23 627 550 55 22 -406 3,244 2,984 238 22

4,496 4,496 0 3,151 2,949 202 1,695 350 537 475 35 26 1,159 3,688 3,424 238 26

8,333 8,333 0 3,524 3,225 299 5,319 510 777 693 45 40 4,542 4,301 3,918 344 40

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

497 165 267 0 64 120

-14 -716 595 -193 299 241

867 593 792 -734 216 303

-717 427 693 -1,958 122 371

1,400 1,548 1,424 -1,705 133 200

4,778 5,108 1,715 -2,204 159 210

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

49 447 0

-630 573 43

248 540 79

-1,371 550 105

834 475 90

3,905 693 180

37,342 21,337 141 21,307 3,089 1,402

41,787 23,649 209 22,263 4,414 3,174

49,552 29,392 330 28,500 6,938 2,891

64,183 40,301 411 35,880 9,526 6,804

59.6 34.0 10.7 3.0 1.7 24.3 1.7 5.8 0.0 20.8

57.0 32.3 13.7 2.7 1.5 32.7 2.4 4.3 0.0 19.2

55.1 32.7 12.5 1.8 1.1 42.8 2.9 7.6 0.0 16.7

53.7 33.7 10.7 1.9 1.2 44.0 3.2 8.2 0.0 12.0

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

47,438 17,337 0 18,961 1,069 -1,152

30,320 19,665 33 19,032 1,477 1,481

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

48.6 17.8 6.6 2.9 1.1 12.7 0.7 2.6 0.0 7.8

408

62.0 40.2 18.6 3.6 2.3 12.1 0.9 3.7 0.0 19.5

UKRAINE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

6,664 6,581 4,346 659 0 3,687 64 2,235 1,200 130 84 0 84

9,670 8,142 5,005 2,377 0 2,628 2,257 3,136 2,379 134 1,528 0 1,528

10,060 8,099 5,537 2,638 0 2,899 2,361 2,561 2,211 93 1,961 0 1,961

11,024 8,272 5,529 2,594 0 2,935 2,327 2,743 2,523 62 2,752 0 2,752

13,140 8,891 5,580 2,708 0 2,872 2,238 3,311 3,150 74 4,250 0 4,250

18,279 10,729 5,313 2,600 0 2,713 2,122 5,415 4,096 1,259 7,551 100 7,451

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

491 0 6,581 84

1,991 0 8,117 1,553

2,248 0 8,092 1,967

2,233 0 8,268 2,756

2,271 0 8,883 4,257

2,168 0 10,718 7,561

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

801 732 550 525 0 25 25 182 0 0 69 0 69

1,387 183 151 129 0 22 16 32 0 14 1,204 0 1,204

1,778 497 489 477 0 12 8 8 0 0 1,281 0 1,281

2,861 501 101 98 0 3 1 400 399 0 2,360 0 2,360

4,496 1,212 212 208 0 3 0 1,000 1,000 0 3,285 0 3,285

8,333 2,646 108 104 0 4 0 2,538 1,358 1,180 5,688 100 5,588

.. ..

.. ..

401 0

113 0

364 0

45 0

95 0

33 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

636 595 165 127 0 38 0 430 200 2 40 0 40

2,103 1,257 1,215 70 0 1,145 1,100 42 33 2 845 0 845

1,185 413 260 154 0 106 98 153 133 14 772 0 772

2,434 697 361 249 0 112 110 337 298 1 1,737 0 1,737

2,949 1,038 393 224 0 169 126 645 555 1 1,911 0 1,911

3,225 1,124 493 288 0 205 128 632 601 0 2,101 0 2,101

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

24 0

60 0

121 0

130 0

166 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

447 440 306 13 0 293 1 134 87 3 7 0 7

573 502 149 141 0 8 3 352 344 8 71 0 71

540 456 176 134 0 42 9 280 240 6 83 0 83

550 446 160 93 0 67 30 286 228 7 104 0 104

475 324 137 76 0 61 16 187 177 2 152 0 152

693 440 109 68 0 41 15 331 314 13 252 0 252

.. ..

.. ..

8 0

118 0

111 0

77 0

62 0

56 0

409

UKRAINE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.3

.. 2.0 0.0 0.0 53.2

22.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 55.3

23.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 55.7

21.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 62.4

15.7 1.4 0.0 0.0 72.0

515 5 455 71 384 31 6 25 0 0 2 0

167 0 169 27 141 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

282 0 282 282 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

523 833 -232

765 222 587

2,728 1,695 659

5,445 5,319 267

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. 2,535 2,185 .. 0 1,870 .. 969 252 .. 969 0 .. 0 252 .. 165 8 .. 165 0 .. 0 8 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 .. 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 2,793 -1,760 .. .. 1,337 -1,287 .. .. 70 -369 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.2 12.2 4.2 23.8

7.3 15.2 4.5 14.9

4.0 20.1 5.6 40.1

9.6 6.8 4.5 4.2

6.0 13.5 8.3 25.0

7.5 6.9 4.4 9.7

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

4.7 13.4 4.8 27.2

7.3 15.2 4.5 14.9

4.0 20.1 5.6 40.1

3.1 18.9 5.3 45.1

3.0 19.8 5.3 46.3

2.5 19.6 5.1 49.2

.. .. 6.5 0.0 0.0 11.0 .. .. 8.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 .. .. 2.5 0.0 0.0 4.3 .. .. 12.6 0.0 0.0 -4.3 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

7.7 10.0 10.0 13.3

7.6 6.7 4.4 9.2

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,218 1,127

2,274 880

2,009 699

1,362 609

3,256 516

890 333

1,580 235

597 214

616 154

590 140

544 123

475 110

502 97

486 82

453 68

429 55

284 47

283 39

248 32

212 25

204 20

192 15

181 11

181 7

332 107

307 100

296 92

262 85

298 77

295 67

272 57

248 48

2,603 973

1,684 741

1,465 576

888 499

2,754 419

404 251

1,127 167

168 160

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

410

URUGUAY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,919 2,756 2,695 60 350 814 0 0 0

4,415 3,114 3,045 69 101 1,201 0 0 0

5,318 3,960 3,833 127 21 1,336 0 0 0

8,146 6,081 5,547 534 149 1,917 0 0 0

9,664 6,591 6,067 524 144 2,929 0 0 0

10,608 7,215 6,723 492 1,793 1,600 0 0 0

11,467 7,607 7,133 473 2,416 1,445 0 0 0

12,376 7,712 7,251 462 2,684 1,979 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

323 220 103 203 193 10 542 422 366 292 20 54 176 568 485 29 54

358 346 12 559 434 124 -134 66 428 318 16 93 -562 987 753 141 93

661 661 0 484 474 10 281 104 379 298 2 80 -98 862 771 11 80

1,053 1,053 0 669 669 0 507 123 635 504 8 123 -128 1,303 1,173 8 123

1,468 1,468 0 870 870 0 1,611 1,012 595 413 7 176 1,015 1,465 1,283 7 176

2,830 1,196 1,634 803 729 74 698 -1,329 470 395 24 51 228 1,273 1,123 98 51

999 489 509 551 471 80 293 -155 331 236 45 50 -38 882 706 125 50

794 241 552 956 556 401 372 534 587 415 95 77 -215 1,543 970 496 77

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

29 27 0 0 2 9

-78 -88 0 0 11 25

359 187 157 0 15 34

666 384 274 0 9 15

904 599 271 28 6 18

651 467 175 0 9 17

452 18 417 0 17 18

13 -314 311 0 16 17

-264 292 0

-396 318 0

8 298 54

73 504 89

374 413 116

458 395 -202

108 236 108

-532 415 131

18,180 4,094 0 4,611 3,099 -488

12,155 3,165 36 2,879 772 322

10,781 3,387 62 3,464 2,087 -56

12,661 4,422 57 4,557 2,512 -103

236.0 53.2 35.8 14.5 3.3 32.1 8.1 30.3 2.1 21.1

335.2 87.3 40.2 14.9 3.9 7.3 3.2 15.1 1.7 24.8

338.5 106.4 26.0 9.8 3.1 18.2 7.2 12.6 1.5 26.7

279.8 97.7 34.9 13.3 4.6 20.3 6.6 16.0 1.4 24.9

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

4,369 1,335 0 1,443 1,031 -98

8,949 2,417 0 2,239 1,446 186

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

293.7 89.7 42.6 27.4 8.4 26.3 8.6 20.8 1.8 7.8

182.7 49.3 40.8 17.7 4.8 32.7 7.7 27.2 2.3 15.8

18,059 3,911 0 4,200 1,813 -213

20,382 4,441 0 5,035 2,776 -566

4. DEBT INDICATORS 136.0 29.4 22.1 9.7 2.1 34.1 5.2 25.1 4.2 23.7

411

183.4 40.0 29.3 14.3 3.1 34.1 6.6 23.5 2.6 23.6

URUGUAY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,756 2,695 441 304 18 136 53 2,255 350 1,884 60 0 60

3,114 3,045 895 699 22 196 78 2,150 567 1,576 69 0 69

3,960 3,833 1,588 1,259 28 329 197 2,245 1,963 252 127 110 18

6,081 5,547 2,240 1,921 19 319 196 3,307 2,737 552 534 300 234

6,591 6,067 2,306 2,036 18 271 187 3,761 2,924 821 524 300 224

7,215 6,723 2,849 2,633 17 216 163 3,874 3,062 792 492 300 192

7,607 7,133 3,214 3,060 24 154 152 3,920 3,604 299 473 300 173

7,712 7,251 3,227 3,078 22 150 149 4,023 3,788 221 462 300 162

152 0 2,689 66

359 0 3,042 72

513 0 3,831 130

552 0 5,547 534

544 0 6,067 524

703 0 6,723 492

722 0 7,133 473

785 0 7,251 462

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

220 220 54 51 0 3 0 166 125 36 0 0 0

346 346 174 90 3 85 3 171 164 4 0 0 0

661 591 128 103 0 25 25 463 348 111 70 70 0

1,053 891 300 299 0 1 1 591 578 1 162 0 162

1,468 1,447 304 279 0 24 24 1,144 783 359 21 0 21

1,196 1,196 704 703 1 1 1 492 405 80 0 0 0

489 477 475 469 2 6 6 2 0 2 12 0 12

241 232 209 200 1 9 9 23 0 23 9 0 9

23 0

51 0

32 0

134 0

65 0

234 0

97 0

144 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

193 124 44 29 1 15 3 80 36 37 69 0 69

434 398 71 61 1 10 2 327 180 143 36 0 36

474 469 124 117 2 7 3 345 273 66 5 0 5

669 604 159 120 2 38 11 446 285 156 64 47 17

870 839 195 134 2 60 26 644 550 89 31 0 31

729 697 218 151 2 66 33 479 365 111 32 0 32

471 439 260 185 2 75 24 179 11 166 31 0 31

556 505 215 199 3 16 15 291 186 102 50 0 50

19 0

43 0

78 0

58 0

72 0

75 0

78 0

80 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

292 283 32 24 0 8 1 251 32 217 9 0 9

318 312 61 54 0 7 2 252 61 190 6 0 6

298 293 124 91 1 33 24 169 151 15 4 3 1

504 427 147 134 0 13 4 280 181 98 77 29 48

413 375 147 134 0 12 5 228 185 42 38 26 12

395 362 135 128 0 7 3 228 186 40 32 26 7

236 203 147 142 1 5 3 56 37 18 33 26 7

415 378 136 130 1 6 6 242 227 13 36 26 11

11 0

27 0

40 0

42 0

38 0

29 0

28 0

22 0

412

URUGUAY (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.2 2.1 0.7 84.0

.. 5.1 3.6 1.5 64.9

.. 6.4 1.9 0.0 53.8

.. 3.4 1.0 0.0 80.7

6.7 5.9 0.8 0.0 78.1

6.9 4.3 0.6 0.0 80.8

6.1 3.5 0.2 0.0 83.5

6.3 3.5 0.1 0.0 84.1

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 648 -33 243 668 1,517 542 -134 281 507 1,611 62 77 32 -94 -86 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

3,270 3,185 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

944 698 165

860 293 432

908 372 170

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

11.4 7.0 1.8 -5.7

9.1 12.9 2.4 5.1

6.8 7.6 3.4 12.1

7.7 8.4 6.8 10.7

6.3 12.3 7.9 20.2

3.0 10.0 4.6 30.7

1.6 16.9 4.9 49.9

5.2 18.4 4.8 29.8

9.9 9.3 2.9 0.6

7.8 20.1 5.0 12.9

3.9 14.9 5.5 36.4

7.2 14.8 5.2 15.7

6.3 20.8 5.3 23.8

2.2 10.1 3.9 33.9

1.6 17.0 4.9 50.0

5.0 19.6 4.2 31.1

8.3 9.0 8.9 8.4

6.3 6.5 2.0 11.7

6.4 8.8 8.8 20.4

11.5 9.8 7.0 7.8 6.3 6.9 8.7 7.1 7.5 8.9 1.7 1.0 3.3 7.0 8.9 -6.0 0.6 10.4 10.0 18.8 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

583 450

927 431

694 379

513 353

497 325

456 303

1,039 263

383 222

372 143

531 135

510 121

257 107

268 97

260 86

245 75

239 65

41 2

11 2

11 2

11 1

10 1

9 1

9 1

8 1

331 141

520 133

499 119

246 106

259 96

250 85

236 74

232 64

211 307

395 296

184 258

256 246

228 228

197 216

794 188

144 157

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public, publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. The voluntary debt exchange in May 2004 by the government covered foreign currency bonds due between 2004 and 2027 for new bonds with an average five-year extension and lower interest rates. The rate of acceptance was high about 90% and 98% among foreign and domestic holders, respectively. The total debt eligible was about $5.3 billion.

413

UZBEKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,799 1,430 1,415 15 157 212 0 0 0

4,618 4,209 3,764 445 127 282 3 0 3

4,856 4,274 3,904 370 78 503 4 0 4

4,776 4,384 4,003 380 62 331 85 0 85

5,012 4,748 4,257 491 43 221 7 0 7

5,007 4,810 4,302 508 19 178 8 0 8

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

0 0 0

17 0 17

16 0 16

47 0 47

34 0 34

39 0 39

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

791 630 161 149 149 0 563 -79 95 80 3 13 467 245 229 3 13

769 769 0 646 581 65 -221 -344 235 204 9 23 -457 882 785 74 23

824 824 0 635 590 45 410 221 227 206 5 16 183 862 796 50 16

454 454 0 580 559 22 -380 -254 180 164 2 14 -560 761 723 24 14

637 637 0 659 636 23 -53 -31 151 145 1 6 -205 810 780 24 6

612 612 0 700 675 25 -132 -44 148 141 1 6 -280 848 816 26 6

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

.. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

470 481 -24 0 13 28

296 188 75 0 34 39

354 234 83 0 37 47

23 -104 65 0 63 74

124 1 70 0 52 87

120 -63 140 0 43 103

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. ..

.. .. ..

390 80 0

93 204 0

148 206 0

-141 164 0

-21 145 0

-22 141 0

11,196 3,223 0 3,379 .. -113

9,543 3,020 0 3,023 .. 117

10,012 3,810 0 3,247 .. 882

11,912 .. 0 .. .. ..

150.7 43.4 26.7 7.0 2.0 .. .. 10.4 30.1 10.7

158.2 50.1 25.2 6.0 1.9 .. .. 6.9 32.7 11.9

131.5 50.1 21.3 4.0 1.5 .. .. 4.4 35.6 12.5

.. 42.0 .. .. 1.2 .. .. 3.6 37.6 14.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. ..

13,316 3,800 0 3,840 .. -21

13,541 3,400 0 3,198 .. 216

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

47.3 13.5 6.4 2.5 0.7 .. .. 11.8 10.4 13.7

414

135.8 34.1 25.9 6.9 1.7 .. .. 6.1 30.4 9.8

UZBEKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

1,430 1,415 1,023 246 0 777 188 393 0 0 15 0 15

4,209 3,764 2,117 454 2 1,663 1,401 1,647 0 345 445 0 445

4,274 3,904 2,238 520 6 1,718 1,454 1,667 0 319 370 0 370

4,384 4,003 2,338 570 13 1,767 1,550 1,666 0 344 380 0 380

4,748 4,257 2,563 628 18 1,935 1,766 1,694 0 294 491 0 491

4,810 4,302 2,745 740 31 2,005 1,851 1,557 0 212 508 0 508

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

157 0 1,288 142

217 0 3,607 602

237 0 3,773 501

275 0 3,896 488

298 0 4,146 602

312 5 4,160 649

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

630 619 399 246 0 154 46 219 0 0 12 0 12

769 713 409 121 1 288 266 304 0 59 56 0 56

824 763 424 117 4 308 229 339 0 52 61 0 61

454 373 158 78 7 80 67 215 0 71 81 0 81

637 478 173 87 4 85 84 306 0 16 159 0 159

612 463 289 163 12 126 117 174 0 1 149 0 149

.. ..

.. ..

162 0

31 0

40 0

31 0

17 0

23 5

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

149 148 119 0 0 119 0 29 0 0 1 0 1

581 441 148 29 0 119 37 293 0 66 140 0 140

590 454 172 38 0 133 62 282 0 74 136 0 136

559 488 189 44 0 144 69 299 0 61 71 0 71

636 588 201 52 0 150 83 387 0 81 48 0 48

675 543 192 61 0 131 96 351 0 54 132 0 132

.. ..

.. ..

0 0

5 0

8 0

9 0

14 0

19 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

80 79 52 4 0 47 0 27 0 0 1 0 1

204 181 75 26 0 49 31 107 0 27 22 0 22

206 186 79 32 0 47 30 107 0 25 20 0 20

164 146 74 27 0 47 31 72 0 16 18 0 18

145 136 71 27 0 44 32 65 0 15 9 0 9

141 118 67 27 0 40 33 51 0 10 23 0 23

.. ..

.. ..

2 0

12 0

11 0

12 0

12 0

11 0

415

UZBEKISTAN (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 3.1 0.0 0.1 66.5

.. 21.2 0.0 0.0 56.7

16.0 20.7 0.0 0.0 57.6

18.2 20.7 0.0 0.0 54.4

20.7 21.1 0.0 0.0 49.6

19.6 21.4 0.0 0.1 48.9

.. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 .. 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. .. 552 -305 238 .. .. 563 -221 410 .. .. -4 -144 -151 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-80 -380 228

236 -53 277

-5 -132 113

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.7 15.5 4.3 23.9

6.4 14.6 3.5 19.3

4.5 13.0 2.9 25.0

3.0 22.7 6.7 47.4

3.0 13.7 2.5 31.6

2.1 26.2 6.4 57.2

.. .. .. ..

.. .. .. ..

5.2 18.1 5.1 28.9

6.0 17.9 4.4 24.0

4.1 22.3 4.7 39.0

3.0 26.5 7.9 53.2

4.5 21.2 4.9 36.0

1.9 28.6 6.9 61.4

.. .. 7.1 7.3 4.8 3.1 .. .. 9.0 6.4 6.6 7.5 .. .. 2.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 .. .. 11.2 7.5 15.3 23.6 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

2.1 9.5 1.1 29.2

3.2 7.7 2.2 24.5

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

894 156

767 141

602 123

563 129

476 116

432 103

289 67

265 57

335 91

303 92

288 89

283 84

268 78

273 70

234 63

223 55

225 50

197 44

196 39

186 34

168 29

171 25

132 21

126 17

110 42

106 47

92 50

97 50

101 49

102 46

103 42

97 38

559 65

464 49

314 34

280 45

208 38

159 33

55 4

42 3

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

416

VANUATU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

15.8 6.8 6.8 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

38.2 28.6 28.6 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

48.9 43.9 43.9 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

74.5 73.1 73.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

71.6 70.2 70.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

90.5 76.5 76.5 0.0 0.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

94.8 79.8 79.8 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

118.3 81.2 81.2 0.0 0.0 37.1 0.1 0.1 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

0.4 0.4 0.0

1.3 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.8

6.5 6.5 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 5.7 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.4 1.7 0.0 0.7

3.2 3.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.0 0.3

14.2 14.2 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 13.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.3 12.6 1.9 1.5 0.0 0.3

2.8 2.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.0 0.1

0.5 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 12.3 12.6 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 11.2 1.9 1.6 0.0 0.3

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.4 -1.1 2.1 1.8 0.0 0.4

0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0 20.4 22.0 1.9 0.8 0.0 1.0 18.6 3.4 2.4 0.0 1.0

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

14.2 0.9 4.6 0.0 8.7 12.3

40.6 5.6 13.0 0.0 22.0 22.2

55.9 2.4 31.0 0.0 22.5 21.5

45.4 13.4 20.0 0.0 12.0 20.6

28.5 2.0 18.0 0.0 8.5 19.7

16.7 -0.4 9.0 0.0 8.0 19.6

21.0 -1.0 15.0 0.0 7.1 26.7

31.0 -1.6 21.9 0.0 10.6 29.6

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

3.0 0.2 11.0

24.7 0.7 15.2

19.8 0.5 35.6

22.8 0.6 21.9

13.8 0.7 14.0

2.6 0.7 13.4

-1.2 0.7 21.5

13.2 0.8 0.0

231.6 186.7 35.0 178.8 38.9 5.0

230.7 172.2 53.0 172.2 37.7 1.8

228.9 124.1 8.0 152.4 36.5 -17.7

264.4 145.9 9.0 182.0 43.8 -29.0

305.4 .. 9.0 .. 61.8 ..

39.9 32.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 52.3 2.6 1.9 91.4 86.1

41.6 31.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 52.6 2.6 1.9 91.5 86.4

72.9 39.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 40.4 2.9 15.5 78.4 74.8

65.0 35.8 1.5 0.7 0.4 46.2 2.9 15.8 77.4 74.3

.. 38.8 .. .. 0.6 52.2 .. 31.4 63.3 60.7

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

122.0 90.5 9.0 112.9 10.6 -10.4

162.6 112.7 8.0 136.5 37.7 -6.2

17.4 12.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 67.3 1.1 57.1 26.6 9.3

33.9 23.5 2.1 1.3 0.9 98.6 3.3 25.1 60.5 41.6

216.8 129.1 14.0 164.5 48.3 -18.2

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

37.9 22.6 1.2 0.6 0.4 98.7 3.5 10.2 86.1 63.7

417

VANUATU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

6.8 6.8 5.0 1.5 0.8 3.6 3.4 1.7 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

28.6 28.6 27.1 15.9 12.9 11.3 10.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

43.9 43.9 43.5 31.2 30.5 12.3 11.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

73.1 73.1 73.1 64.1 59.5 8.9 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

70.2 70.2 70.2 61.9 57.4 8.4 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

76.5 76.5 76.5 67.6 62.4 8.8 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

79.8 79.8 79.8 70.4 64.2 9.4 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

81.2 81.2 81.2 71.8 65.6 9.4 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2 6.8 0.0

0.0 4.0 28.6 0.0

0.0 13.2 43.9 0.0

0.0 12.9 73.1 0.0

0.0 12.2 70.2 0.0

0.0 12.9 76.5 0.0

0.0 13.9 79.8 0.0

0.0 14.2 81.2 0.0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

1.3 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

6.5 6.5 6.5 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.2 3.2 3.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.8

0.0 0.4

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.2

0.0 0.3

0.0 0.3

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

0.0 0.1

418

VANUATU (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 0.0 3.5 0.0 8.8

.. 0.0 0.6 0.0 22.4

.. 0.0 0.1 0.0 43.3

.. 0.0 0.0 0.0 56.8

12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.2

13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 53.4

14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.6

14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 2.8 7.9 3.4 8.8 -2.9 1.9 5.7 2.4 13.6 2.0 0.8 1.1 -0.1 -4.1 -4.3 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

18.9 12.3 5.8

4.3 0.0 7.8

23.5 20.4 3.1

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.9 19.3 4.3 37.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 23.0 16.1 86.0

2.0 14.5 3.5 44.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.9 19.3 4.3 37.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 23.0 16.1 86.0

2.0 14.5 3.5 44.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1.7 0.7

1.9 0.8

2.1 0.9

2.6 1.3

3.1 1.2

3.2 1.2

3.3 1.1

3.7 1.1

1.7 0.7

1.9 0.8

2.1 0.9

2.6 1.3

3.1 1.2

3.2 1.2

3.3 1.1

3.7 1.1

0.4 0.1

0.4 0.1

0.4 0.1

0.4 0.1

0.4 0.1

0.4 0.1

0.4 0.1

0.7 0.1

1.2 0.6

1.5 0.7

1.7 0.8

2.2 1.2

2.8 1.2

2.9 1.1

2.9 1.1

3.0 1.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

419

VENEZUELA, REPUBLICA BOLIVARIANA de (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

35,340 26,388 17,743 8,645 0 8,951 1 1 0

33,171 28,159 24,509 3,650 3,012 2,000 0 0 0

35,538 30,236 28,223 2,013 2,239 3,063 273 12 260

38,152 33,880 27,748 6,132 203 4,070 59 7 52

36,038 31,246 25,230 6,015 0 4,792 49 3 47

33,987 29,397 23,379 6,018 0 4,590 52 1 51

34,830 30,486 24,471 6,016 0 4,344 5 1 4

35,570 31,218 25,852 5,366 0 4,352 13 1 12

2,730 14 2,716

0 0 0

1,022 116 907

79 68 11

5 0 5

4 0 3

7 0 7

3 0 3

328 328 0 997 997 0 -1,119 -450 3,308 1,782 0 1,526 -4,427 4,305 2,779 0 1,526

4,069 2,226 1,843 1,749 1,749 0 2,036 -284 3,242 2,993 37 212 -1,206 4,991 4,742 37 212

1,717 1,717 0 2,739 2,278 462 -1,670 -648 2,431 2,095 142 193 -4,101 5,170 4,373 604 193

2,303 2,303 0 3,419 2,912 507 895 2,010 2,675 2,437 28 210 -1,780 6,094 5,349 535 210

3,043 3,043 0 4,885 4,687 198 -1,110 732 2,676 2,468 6 202 -3,786 7,561 7,155 204 202

2,227 2,227 0 5,207 5,207 0 -3,185 -205 2,245 2,115 0 130 -5,430 7,452 7,322 0 130

6,853 6,853 0 6,559 6,559 0 95 -199 2,302 2,194 0 108 -2,207 8,861 8,753 0 108

4,756 4,756 0 4,373 4,373 0 382 0 2,258 2,150 0 108 -1,876 6,632 6,524 0 108

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

-599 -669 68 0 2 15

933 477 451 0 5 24

713 -560 985 270 18 35

3,552 -608 4,701 -574 34 27

2,071 -1,644 3,683 31 1 39

-2,187 -2,980 782 -5 16 32

3,069 294 2,659 97 18 36

1,748 382 1,518 -170 17 36

-2,487 1,782 106

-2,284 2,993 224

-1,813 2,095 431

-309 2,437 1,424

-2,281 2,468 1,884

-6,217 2,115 1,915

-1,017 2,194 1,891

-3,664 2,150 3,261

120,890 30,646 19 28,515 12,264 1,983

90,134 29,268 19 21,512 12,107 7,599

81,025 29,777 21 18,349 20,821 11,448

106,219 41,410 20 27,491 23,408 13,830

117.6 29.8 24.7 8.7 2.2 34.0 5.2 13.3 0.1 8.9

116.1 37.7 25.5 7.7 2.5 35.6 6.8 13.5 0.2 10.1

117.0 43.0 29.8 7.7 2.8 59.8 13.6 12.5 0.3 9.7

85.9 33.5 16.0 5.5 2.1 65.8 10.2 12.2 0.3 8.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

55,703 17,189 1 13,691 13,998 3,327

46,253 21,464 1 12,883 12,733 8,279

205.6 63.4 25.0 19.2 5.9 39.6 12.3 25.3 0.1 0.3

154.5 71.7 23.3 15.1 7.0 38.4 11.9 6.0 0.3 4.9

72,946 22,620 2 20,715 10,715 2,014

115,760 37,760 17 25,737 15,899 11,853

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

157.1 48.7 22.9 10.7 3.3 30.2 6.2 8.6 0.3 9.3

420

101.0 33.0 16.1 7.1 2.3 41.7 7.4 10.7 0.2 8.3

VENEZUELA, REPUBLICA BOLIVARIANA de (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

26,388 17,743 426 111 34 316 0 17,317 850 14,876 8,645 0 8,645

28,159 24,509 1,933 1,640 12 293 73 22,577 19,644 363 3,650 0 3,650

30,236 28,223 4,703 3,300 4 1,403 96 23,520 20,745 1,158 2,013 114 1,899

33,880 27,748 5,924 3,158 0 2,766 63 21,823 16,532 3,377 6,132 3,880 2,252

31,246 25,230 4,927 3,201 0 1,726 46 20,303 15,877 3,149 6,015 4,357 1,659

29,397 23,379 4,400 3,428 0 972 57 18,979 15,276 3,084 6,018 4,271 1,747

30,486 24,471 3,888 3,390 0 498 88 20,582 16,381 3,940 6,016 4,327 1,689

31,218 25,852 3,513 3,139 0 375 89 22,338 18,121 3,955 5,366 3,682 1,684

42 0 17,623 8,766

974 0 24,509 3,650

1,639 0 27,648 2,588

972 0 27,298 6,581

839 0 24,793 6,452

670 0 23,133 6,264

484 0 24,159 6,327

294 0 25,574 5,644

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

328 328 4 0 0 4 0 324 0 138 0 0 0

2,226 2,226 1,103 1,035 0 69 15 1,122 599 26 0 0 0

1,717 1,637 529 267 0 262 16 1,108 349 586 80 0 80

2,303 2,303 782 399 0 382 24 1,522 462 639 0 0 0

3,043 2,543 486 418 0 68 7 2,057 763 1,183 500 500 0

2,227 1,653 597 532 0 65 14 1,057 212 777 574 0 574

6,853 5,888 406 357 0 50 32 5,482 3,763 1,639 965 0 965

4,756 3,531 409 296 0 113 5 3,122 2,500 476 1,225 260 965

0 0

840 0

47 0

50 0

78 0

42 0

23 0

16 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

997 947 92 30 4 62 0 855 65 536 50 0 50

1,749 1,576 50 9 4 41 0 1,526 254 706 173 0 173

2,278 1,775 375 202 1 173 11 1,400 817 45 503 0 503

2,912 2,256 613 356 0 257 7 1,643 1,119 370 655 0 655

4,687 4,074 1,382 330 0 1,052 7 2,692 1,018 961 613 20 593

5,207 4,207 1,225 384 0 841 4 2,982 1,178 1,077 1,000 100 900

6,559 5,589 1,016 473 0 543 5 4,573 3,074 1,045 970 0 970

4,373 2,503 817 577 0 240 5 1,687 988 552 1,870 900 970

22 0

0 0

116 0

208 0

211 0

211 0

210 0

207 0

1,782 1,440 33 6 1 27 0 1,407 68 1,244 342 0 342

2,993 2,593 71 59 0 12 0 2,522 135 2,198 400 0 400

2,095 1,984 296 231 0 66 3 1,688 1,534 65 111 10 101

2,437 1,869 325 255 0 71 3 1,544 1,327 169 568 304 264

2,468 2,110 384 237 0 147 1 1,726 1,325 285 358 303 55

2,115 1,771 326 230 0 96 1 1,444 977 393 344 339 5

2,194 1,843 275 220 0 55 9 1,568 1,051 487 351 337 14

2,150 1,846 180 158 0 22 1 1,666 1,289 352 304 290 14

3 0

19 0

120 0

91 0

75 0

53 0

33 0

17 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

421

VENEZUELA, REPUBLICA BOLIVARIANA de (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.6 0.0 0.0 89.6

.. 0.6 1.5 0.9 78.2

.. 4.2 1.2 0.7 69.0

.. 1.9 0.8 0.4 83.8

10.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 80.6

13.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 76.6

16.0 1.1 0.6 0.4 75.4

15.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 76.9

0 17,659 0 0 0 0 17,630 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,361 0 0 0 0 634 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION -1,554 792 -1,313 577 -2,115 -1,119 2,036 -1,670 895 -1,110 386 379 366 -328 -240 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-2,050 -3,185 681

843 95 815

739 382 371

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

8.6 12.8 3.5 6.3

8.2 14.5 5.6 9.5

7.4 7.3 3.6 9.5

8.1 8.0 2.6 6.2

8.1 8.9 5.3 2.5

5.1 8.7 1.7 17.2

7.5 9.7 8.3 10.6

6.0 16.2 14.0 18.1

8.1 20.0 5.0 11.4

7.8 15.6 4.9 11.8

6.8 17.2 5.2 19.1

8.0 12.7 2.6 9.9

5.6 11.3 3.4 19.0

4.6 12.9 2.3 25.1

4.5 10.5 1.8 22.9

5.0 7.9 2.2 18.0

8.7 8.5 7.7 8.2 8.5 5.4 12.1 13.6 3.3 6.3 8.5 7.0 3.3 6.1 3.0 2.6 5.6 1.4 5.8 7.8 5.6 5.0 -0.1 13.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT

7.6 9.6 8.7 10.0

6.4 18.9 18.0 18.1

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

3,501 2,380

2,610 2,191

2,769 2,092

2,981 1,941

1,140 1,743

3,269 1,677

2,290 1,434

1,439 1,341

832 209

666 197

672 177

628 147

557 119

518 91

446 65

360 46

210 26

148 39

169 43

186 40

180 33

154 25

114 18

101 13

623 183

518 158

503 133

442 108

377 86

364 66

332 47

260 33

2,669 2,171

1,944 1,995

2,097 1,916

2,354 1,793

584 1,624

2,751 1,586

1,844 1,368

1,079 1,295

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates.

422

VIETNAM (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

23,270 21,378 21,378 0 112 1,780 1,530 859 671

25,428 21,778 21,778 0 377 3,272 2,501 1,999 502

12,825 11,586 11,586 0 316 923 78 76 2

12,585 11,436 11,436 0 366 783 79 77 2

13,344 12,179 12,179 0 381 784 79 76 2

15,849 14,221 14,221 0 339 1,289 82 80 3

17,825 15,412 15,412 0 277 2,136 49 47 3

2,011 1,091 920

8,915 8,460 456

1,378 1,372 6

1,378 1,370 8

1,376 1,370 6

1,379 1,372 7

1,335 1,328 7

13 13 0 104 99 5 -95 -4 70 46 0 23 -165 174 146 5 23

730 639 92 225 225 0 823 317 139 81 11 46 683 364 306 11 46

1,273 1,273 0 958 937 21 473 158 352 298 3 51 121 1,310 1,234 24 51

1,296 1,191 105 835 791 44 320 -141 384 354 2 28 -64 1,219 1,145 46 28

916 863 54 895 827 68 23 2 301 276 2 23 -278 1,196 1,103 70 23

1,559 1,559 0 505 432 73 1,555 502 300 269 2 29 1,256 805 701 75 29

1,641 1,641 0 425 352 73 2,096 880 355 304 2 49 1,741 780 656 75 49

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

9 -86 0 0 96 98

762 414 0 0 348 229

1,870 336 1,298 0 236 246

1,963 399 1,300 0 264 250

1,678 36 1,400 0 242 248

2,895 1,127 1,450 0 318 291

3,286 1,289 1,610 0 387 314

-37 46 0

680 81 0

1,572 298 0

1,609 354 0

1,402 276 0

2,626 269 0

2,982 304 0

32,248 18,155 2,000 18,723 3,675 682

34,488 19,821 2,714 22,346 4,121 -604

39,041 23,542 2,700 27,877 6,224 ..

44,503 .. 3,200 .. 7,041 ..

69.3 39.0 6.7 2.1 1.2 29.2 2.4 6.2 66.4 17.6

67.3 38.7 6.0 1.5 0.9 30.9 2.2 5.9 72.4 21.5

67.3 40.6 3.4 1.3 0.8 39.3 2.7 8.1 73.9 24.8

.. 40.1 .. .. 0.8 39.5 .. 12.0 71.4 26.3

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. .. .. .. ..

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

6,060 .. 0 .. .. ..

20,510 .. 0 .. 1,324 ..

30,726 17,481 0 18,107 3,417 1,106

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 384.0 .. .. 1.2 .. .. 7.7 84.9 0.6

.. 124.0 .. .. 0.7 5.2 .. 12.9 78.2 1.3

423

73.4 41.7 7.5 2.0 1.1 26.6 2.3 7.2 61.3 14.8

VIETNAM (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

21,378 21,378 20,171 130 103 20,041 19,646 1,207 0 684 0 0 0

21,778 21,778 20,450 325 325 20,126 19,549 1,328 0 1,043 0 0 0

11,586 11,586 8,683 1,895 1,846 6,787 6,020 2,904 560 1,658 0 0 0

11,436 11,436 9,174 2,210 2,156 6,964 6,202 2,262 560 1,070 0 0 0

12,179 12,179 10,527 2,869 2,794 7,658 6,869 1,652 560 520 0 0 0

14,221 14,221 12,777 3,926 3,852 8,852 7,860 1,444 560 372 0 0 0

15,412 15,412 13,946 4,697 4,631 9,249 8,102 1,465 547 483 0 0 0

.. .. .. ..

0 59 21,378 0

0 231 21,778 0

0 1,113 11,586 0

0 1,344 11,436 0

0 1,715 12,179 0

0 2,472 14,221 0

0 3,039 15,412 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

13 13 13 4 0 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0

639 639 233 100 100 133 133 406 0 389 0 0 0

1,273 1,273 1,177 395 367 782 738 96 0 9 0 0 0

1,191 1,191 1,097 435 430 661 629 94 0 35 0 0 0

863 863 814 466 444 348 329 48 0 27 0 0 0

1,559 1,559 1,538 757 757 780 590 21 0 19 0 0 0

1,641 1,641 1,491 606 605 885 663 150 0 150 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 47

0 174

0 278

0 261

0 567

0 444

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

99 99 99 3 3 96 43 0 0 0 0 0 0

225 225 175 7 7 168 72 50 0 0 0 0 0

937 937 134 6 6 128 93 802 0 617 0 0 0

791 791 104 5 5 98 70 688 0 596 0 0 0

827 827 134 4 4 130 101 693 0 596 0 0 0

432 432 153 9 6 144 115 279 0 191 0 0 0

352 352 213 23 18 190 138 139 13 45 0 0 0

.. ..

0 1

0 1

0 2

0 2

0 2

0 2

0 8

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

46 46 26 2 0 24 3 20 0 4 0 0 0

81 81 50 2 2 47 19 32 0 24 0 0 0

298 298 77 14 13 63 48 220 23 153 0 0 0

354 354 184 20 18 163 145 170 23 115 0 0 0

276 276 188 22 20 166 148 88 22 37 0 0 0

269 269 203 29 27 174 155 66 22 19 0 0 0

304 304 248 46 43 202 176 56 22 14 0 0 0

.. ..

0 0

0 2

0 7

0 8

0 11

0 15

0 29

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

424

VIETNAM (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. .. .. .. ..

.. 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.5

.. 5.6 0.1 0.0 8.4

.. 23.5 0.1 0.1 43.3

6.9 24.9 0.1 0.0 41.4

8.0 27.6 0.1 0.0 38.4

7.9 29.0 0.1 0.0 40.0

7.0 28.2 0.1 0.0 42.3

.. 410 89 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 61 0 0 .. 0 48 0 0 .. 0 13 0 0 .. 0 1 0 0 .. 0 1 0 0 .. 0 0 0 0 .. 0 32 5 0 .. 0 0 1,631 77 .. 0 0 8,759 0 .. 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION .. 2,565 628 -10,385 -240 .. -95 823 473 320 .. 1,793 1 -457 -524 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0

759 23 674

2,505 1,555 951

1,976 2,096 431

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

.. .. .. ..

5.7 9.6 4.2 19.9

3.3 26.3 7.9 51.9

1.4 36.1 9.6 73.2

1.0 38.7 9.7 77.2

1.3 35.0 9.4 72.6

1.9 28.0 7.7 60.3

1.8 29.9 7.8 64.2

.. .. .. ..

5.7 9.6 4.2 19.9

2.3 31.5 9.5 63.3

1.4 36.1 9.6 73.2

1.0 38.7 9.7 77.2

1.3 35.0 9.4 72.6

1.9 28.0 7.7 60.3

1.4 32.9 8.7 70.1

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.9 12.2 2.3 28.8

.. 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 .. 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

470 342

508 356

583 377

691 370

735 361

786 345

811 327

833 310

296 277

356 296

451 324

560 322

611 320

678 309

715 295

741 282

258 225

300 237

377 256

467 251

490 241

535 229

553 214

560 202

39 52

55 59

74 68

92 71

121 79

143 80

162 81

181 80

174 65

152 60

133 53

131 47

124 41

109 36

96 31

92 28

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on partial reports provided by the authorities and World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club agreements signed until December 2004, other bilateral arrangements outside of the Paris Club, and the 1997 DDSR agreement. The effect of the memorandum of understanding of September 1997 on the debt outstanding and disbursed owed to Russia is reflected in the table.

425

YEMEN, REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

3,339 2,967 2,967 0 48 324 23 19 4

6,352 5,160 5,160 0 0 1,192 192 131 61

6,217 5,528 5,528 0 0 689 473 316 157

5,075 4,059 4,059 0 317 699 27 25 2

5,087 4,277 4,277 0 374 436 24 22 2

5,225 4,497 4,497 0 386 341 26 22 4

5,375 4,745 4,745 0 401 229 46 41 6

5,488 4,799 4,799 0 376 313 115 107 8

171 91 80

845 383 463

2,408 1,330 1,078

289 288 1

245 243 2

261 255 5

318 308 10

245 229 16

276 276 0 75 68 7 147 -54 56 26 2 28 91 131 94 9 28

305 305 0 81 79 1 386 161 88 28 0 60 297 169 108 1 60

118 118 0 65 65 0 36 -17 37 25 0 11 0 102 91 0 11

136 136 0 153 81 71 268 285 91 45 10 35 178 243 126 81 35

278 156 121 184 132 53 -167 -260 75 49 6 20 -241 259 181 59 20

149 149 0 110 92 18 -57 -97 61 47 3 11 -119 171 139 21 11

157 157 0 118 99 19 -94 -132 58 51 3 4 -151 176 150 22 4

157 157 0 154 113 41 18 15 69 62 3 4 -51 223 175 44 4

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

419 208 3 0 208 69

333 226 -131 0 238 106

-73 53 -218 0 92 65

223 55 6 0 163 51

274 25 155 0 94 57

283 57 114 0 112 57

98 58 -89 0 130 54

360 44 144 0 172 52

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

393 26 0

21 28 283

-532 25 433

-677 45 855

-575 49 800

-603 47 840

-897 51 945

-991 62 1,289

8,773 5,446 1,288 4,221 2,914 1,337

8,879 5,006 1,295 4,318 3,672 667

9,188 5,216 1,294 4,767 4,428 538

10,189 5,621 1,270 5,569 5,008 149

11,820 6,432 1,283 6,368 5,687 225

93.2 57.8 4.5 1.7 1.0 57.4 8.3 13.8 77.3 33.0

101.6 57.3 5.2 1.5 0.8 72.2 10.2 8.6 82.0 32.6

100.2 56.9 3.3 1.2 0.7 84.7 11.1 6.5 84.1 34.8

95.6 52.8 3.1 1.0 0.6 93.2 10.8 4.3 86.1 37.8

85.3 46.4 3.5 1.1 0.6 103.6 10.7 5.7 85.5 39.8

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

.. .. 0 .. .. ..

4,792 3,026 1,498 2,579 441 739

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. 9.7 72.3 20.8

209.9 132.6 5.6 2.9 1.8 6.9 2.1 18.8 50.7 16.2

3,678 3,277 1,080 3,069 638 184

4. DEBT INDICATORS EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

189.7 169.0 3.1 1.1 1.0 10.3 2.5 11.1 56.7 20.6

426

YEMEN, REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

2,967 2,967 2,563 695 629 1,868 1,785 403 0 0 0 0 0

5,160 5,160 3,502 1,026 990 2,476 2,231 1,658 0 80 0 0 0

5,528 5,528 3,810 1,278 1,240 2,532 2,287 1,718 0 80 0 0 0

4,059 4,059 3,996 1,676 1,636 2,320 2,289 63 0 53 0 0 0

4,277 4,277 4,227 1,658 1,630 2,569 2,542 50 0 50 0 0 0

4,497 4,497 4,438 1,820 1,800 2,618 2,596 59 0 59 0 0 0

4,745 4,745 4,673 2,032 2,015 2,641 2,613 71 0 71 0 0 0

4,799 4,799 4,723 2,185 2,185 2,538 2,509 77 0 77 0 0 0

0 348 2,967 0

0 602 5,160 0

0 827 5,528 0

0 1,216 4,059 0

0 1,237 4,277 0

0 1,384 4,497 0

0 1,567 4,745 0

0 1,701 4,799 0

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

276 276 265 113 85 151 128 12 0 0 0 0 0

305 305 139 56 55 84 84 166 0 0 0 0 0

118 118 118 109 88 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0

136 136 136 111 102 25 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

156 156 156 117 117 39 35 0 0 0 0 0 0

149 149 149 125 125 25 23 0 0 0 0 0 0

157 157 157 138 138 18 14 0 0 0 0 0 0

157 157 157 154 154 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 45

0 27

0 42

0 65

0 77

0 83

0 89

0 92

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

68 68 63 22 14 40 36 6 0 0 0 0 0

79 79 74 41 26 34 34 5 0 0 0 0 0

65 65 63 53 48 10 10 2 0 0 0 0 0

81 81 81 60 52 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

132 132 125 69 59 56 54 7 0 1 0 0 0

92 92 92 62 53 30 29 0 0 0 0 0 0

99 99 99 61 56 38 38 0 0 0 0 0 0

113 113 113 76 59 38 37 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 1

0 2

0 8

0 14

0 17

0 19

0 23

0 26

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

26 26 24 13 10 11 10 2 0 0 0 0 0

28 28 23 14 12 9 9 5 0 0 0 0 0

25 25 25 18 17 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0

45 45 45 21 19 24 22 0 0 0 0 0 0

49 49 48 21 19 27 25 1 0 0 0 0 0

47 47 47 21 20 25 24 0 0 0 0 0 0

51 51 51 23 22 28 27 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 62 61 27 26 35 33 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 3

0 3

0 6

0 9

0 9

0 10

0 11

0 15

427

YEMEN, REPUBLIC OF (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 2.0 1.2 0.6 25.0

.. 4.4 0.7 0.3 20.2

.. 6.1 0.6 0.3 21.2

.. 7.8 0.3 0.0 67.9

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

26 98 0 123 0 0 0 0 24 98 0 107 24 98 0 105 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 10 2 0 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 337 759 92 -1,118 147 386 36 268 146 233 -49 -139 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

2.7 5.9 0.1 0.0 64.6

1.5 7.3 0.1 0.0 65.2

1.8 7.6 0.1 0.0 65.4

1.9 7.5 0.2 0.0 66.4

619 0 231 231 0 1 1 0 24 0 35 0

77 0 7 7 0 6 6 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 14 0 0

11 -167 -110

138 -57 188

151 -94 234

113 18 78

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

3.0 15.7 3.5 37.7

1.8 28.6 7.2 61.3

5.1 12.5 3.3 23.5

0.9 36.5 9.6 76.7

2.3 29.9 7.8 60.9

1.3 36.5 9.6 74.2

1.7 31.4 8.4 66.9

1.6 30.9 7.4 65.2

3.0 19.9 4.6 43.1

1.8 28.6 7.2 61.3

5.1 12.5 3.3 23.5

0.9 36.5 9.6 76.7

2.3 29.9 7.8 60.9

1.3 36.5 9.6 74.2

1.7 31.4 8.4 66.9

1.6 30.9 7.4 65.2

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

150 57

153 59

158 60

170 60

181 59

186 58

189 55

192 53

146 55

148 58

153 59

165 59

176 58

181 57

184 55

187 52

87 29

86 28

84 27

88 25

87 24

85 23

83 22

80 21

59 27

62 30

69 32

77 34

89 34

96 34

101 33

107 31

4 1

5 1

5 1

5 1

5 1

5 1

5 1

5 1

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country and World Bank staff estimates. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

428

ZAMBIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

4,487 3,017 3,017 0 801 670 163 104 59

6,905 4,543 4,541 2 949 1,413 738 670 68

6,958 5,304 5,291 13 1,239 415 177 145 32

5,722 4,508 4,444 65 1,138 76 33 23 10

6,069 4,946 4,827 119 982 141 0 0 0

6,464 5,376 5,267 108 1,015 73 4 4 1

6,928 5,979 5,584 396 859 90 20 4 16

7,279 6,257 5,871 386 890 132 43 5 38

433 259 174

1,493 1,389 104

772 678 94

137 109 28

342 249 93

463 310 153

551 384 167

732 508 224

269 269 0 71 46 25 317 119 65 41 25 0 251 136 87 50 0

164 164 0 124 100 25 -125 -165 76 72 2 3 -201 201 171 27 3

2,606 352 2,253 2,067 242 1,825 435 -104 545 125 419 1 -111 2,613 367 2,244 1

287 261 26 98 98 0 159 -30 88 80 6 3 71 185 177 6 3

353 258 95 128 86 42 323 97 57 49 5 3 265 185 135 47 3

380 208 172 167 105 62 141 -72 60 53 5 2 81 227 158 67 2

150 150 0 359 288 71 -207 2 205 198 5 2 -411 563 486 76 2

445 200 245 344 94 249 120 19 81 74 4 2 40 424 169 253 2

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

397 223 52 0 122 75

931 65 203 0 663 128

569 110 97 0 362 164

699 163 122 -1 415 108

515 172 72 0 271 99

571 103 82 0 386 118

619 -138 172 0 585 123

1,192 106 334 0 752 144

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

283 41 73

745 72 115

444 125 0

619 80 0

466 49 0

518 53 0

422 198 0

1,118 74 0

3,080 918 0 1,484 245 -553

3,469 1,106 0 1,798 183 ..

3,542 1,138 0 1,752 535 ..

4,187 1,398 0 2,110 248 ..

5,098 .. 0 .. 337 ..

623.7 185.8 20.2 9.6 2.9 4.3 2.0 1.3 62.5 42.0

548.9 174.9 16.7 5.2 1.6 3.0 1.2 2.3 58.8 39.2

567.7 182.5 19.9 5.3 1.7 8.3 3.7 1.1 60.8 42.4

495.6 165.5 40.3 14.6 4.9 3.6 1.4 1.3 62.0 44.4

.. 142.8 .. .. 1.6 4.6 .. 1.8 62.7 46.1

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

1,986 868 0 1,239 201 -395

3,008 1,362 0 2,336 201 -594

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

517.1 226.0 15.7 7.5 3.3 4.5 1.9 14.9 27.2 15.8

507.0 229.5 14.7 5.6 2.5 2.9 1.0 20.5 29.9 20.1

3,235 .. 0 .. 223 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 215.1 .. .. 16.9 3.2 .. 6.0 47.3 30.5

429

ZAMBIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

3,017 3,017 2,478 710 213 1,768 1,007 539 0 70 0 0 0

4,543 4,541 4,097 1,389 579 2,708 1,487 444 0 70 2 0 2

5,304 5,291 5,080 2,120 1,715 2,960 1,579 210 0 16 13 0 13

4,508 4,444 4,412 2,403 2,252 2,009 1,326 31 0 0 65 0 65

4,946 4,827 4,342 2,381 2,174 1,961 1,394 484 7 0 119 0 119

5,376 5,267 4,749 2,739 2,498 2,010 1,434 519 7 0 108 0 108

5,979 5,584 5,158 3,077 2,811 2,081 1,483 426 5 0 396 0 396

6,257 5,871 5,435 3,355 3,082 2,079 1,481 437 4 0 386 0 386

370 105 3,009 7

539 274 4,541 2

163 1,270 5,259 45

25 1,823 4,413 95

17 1,869 4,821 124

10 2,144 5,264 112

3 2,405 5,581 398

0 2,637 5,868 389

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

269 269 256 165 82 90 80 13 0 0 0 0 0

164 162 117 106 41 11 9 46 0 0 2 0 2

352 351 327 251 237 76 72 24 0 8 1 0 1

261 251 251 249 244 2 2 0 0 0 10 0 10

258 198 198 151 143 46 10 0 0 0 60 0 60

208 208 208 182 171 26 6 0 0 0 0 0 0

150 141 141 116 106 25 10 0 0 0 9 0 9

200 194 194 193 173 1 1 0 0 0 6 0 6

46 63

0 3

0 209

0 210

0 126

0 141

0 74

0 141

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

46 46 37 25 1 12 1 9 0 0 0 0 0

100 100 43 37 2 5 0 57 0 0 0 0 0

242 241 180 120 15 60 32 61 0 2 1 0 1

98 79 79 51 22 28 18 1 0 0 18 0 18

86 81 76 30 10 46 10 5 0 0 5 0 5

105 94 92 19 5 73 26 2 0 0 11 0 11

288 270 148 19 6 129 72 122 2 0 18 0 18

94 78 65 33 8 32 8 13 1 0 16 0 16

20 0

5 0

50 2

8 4

8 5

6 0

7 0

3 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

41 41 37 28 3 9 2 4 0 0 0 0 0

72 72 43 33 3 10 9 29 0 0 0 0 0

125 125 116 65 16 51 16 9 0 1 0 0 0

80 76 76 33 19 42 22 0 0 0 4 0 4

49 45 44 11 8 33 8 1 0 0 3 0 3

53 50 50 10 7 40 15 0 0 0 3 0 3

198 169 85 17 12 69 47 84 0 0 29 0 29

74 43 42 26 18 16 4 1 0 0 31 0 31

23 1

1 0

15 9

3 13

2 7

1 5

1 9

0 14

430

ZAMBIA (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 7.3 6.8 0.4 33.6

.. 10.0 8.5 0.5 28.1

.. 11.2 7.7 0.1 39.6

.. 13.9 3.9 0.0 61.7

13.2 10.8 7.3 0.0 56.9

13.6 10.0 7.4 0.0 57.3

14.1 10.1 5.6 0.0 58.5

14.6 9.6 5.7 0.0 58.7

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

5 690 20 169 0 0 38 0 0 0 9 466 7 105 19 9 342 7 105 19 0 123 0 0 0 2 321 5 63 4 2 299 5 63 4 0 22 0 0 0 0 114 1 39 56 0 22 1 18 31 0 26 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 734 351 149 -137 347 317 -125 435 159 323 253 302 -103 -289 -232 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 37 37 0 71 71 0 60 27 0 0

0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 70 29 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 55 26 0 0

394 141 436

464 -207 545

351 120 208

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

2.5 38.8 9.8 64.4

8.1 15.8 4.7 14.5

1.8 36.3 10.1 70.2

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.7 32.8 11.0 65.5

0.8 26.2 7.0 58.3

2.2 29.8 7.6 60.5

0.8 41.5 10.1 80.6

2.4 39.1 9.9 65.2

6.5 20.7 6.6 24.8

1.5 37.3 10.3 72.9

0.8 39.6 10.1 80.4

0.7 32.8 11.0 65.6

0.8 26.2 7.0 58.3

2.2 29.8 7.6 60.5

0.8 41.5 10.1 80.6

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

9.9 11.0 10.5 0.0 2.1 6.7 6.9 9.2 0.0 32.2 2.2 1.4 2.9 0.0 0.5 -0.3 -4.1 -3.7 0.0 54.9 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

403 115

227 102

241 94

247 86

236 77

233 74

232 64

226 58

246 90

189 84

199 77

199 70

192 63

181 58

184 54

188 50

178 58

114 53

116 47

115 42

104 36

90 32

89 29

89 26

68 32

74 31

84 30

84 29

88 27

91 26

96 25

99 24

157 25

38 18

42 17

48 16

45 13

52 15

47 10

38 8

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed and private nonguaranteed debt 2001-2004 are based on the reports provided by the country. Short-term debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending. Rescheduling: Data includes the effects of all Paris Club debt restructuring agreements signed until December 2004.

431

ZIMBABWE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1. SUMMARY DEBT DATA TOTAL DEBT STOCKS (EDT) Long-term debt (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Private nonguaranteed Use of IMF credit Short-term debt of which interest arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors Memorandum items Principal arrears on LDOD Official creditors Private creditors TOTAL DEBT FLOWS Disbursements Long-term debt IMF purchases Principal repayments Long-term debt IMF repurchases Net flows on debt of which short-term debt Interest payments (INT) Long-term debt IMF charges Short-term debt Net transfers on debt Total debt service paid (TDS) Long-term debt IMF repurchases and charges Short-term debt (interest only)

2,414 1,842 1,777 65 264 308 0 0 0

3,279 2,681 2,496 185 7 591 0 0 0

4,988 3,842 3,461 381 461 685 3 1 2

3,827 2,979 2,774 205 281 567 54 40 14

3,589 2,807 2,679 128 262 521 149 117 31

3,886 3,104 3,021 83 280 502 271 223 48

4,483 3,448 3,388 60 302 733 398 334 64

4,797 3,604 3,558 46 293 900 487 407 79

0 0 0

0 0 0

21 8 13

166 107 59

502 366 136

932 725 207

1,425 1,133 291

1,696 1,342 353

243 243 0 247 197 50 -40 -36 175 126 22 27 -215 422 323 72 27

424 424 0 270 247 24 335 181 201 149 2 49 134 471 396 26 49

653 573 80 398 398 0 441 187 238 189 13 35 203 636 587 13 35

185 185 0 283 212 70 -331 -233 138 81 10 48 -469 421 293 80 48

44 44 0 117 108 9 -213 -141 51 29 2 20 -264 168 136 11 20

26 26 0 49 46 3 -164 -141 59 51 0 8 -223 109 97 3 8

41 41 0 41 36 4 104 104 14 7 0 6 90 54 43 5 6

56 56 0 71 50 21 64 79 23 9 0 13 41 93 59 21 13

2. AGGREGATE NET RESOURCE FLOWS AND NET TRANSFERS (LONG-TERM) NET RESOURCE FLOWS Net flow of long-term debt (ex. IMF) Foreign direct investment (net) Portfolio equity flows Grants (excluding technical coop.) Memo: technical coop. grants

163 46 3 0 114 53

364 177 -12 0 199 103

600 175 118 0 308 132

110 -27 23 0 114 77

26 -63 4 0 86 79

142 -20 26 0 136 66

173 5 30 0 138 63

223 6 60 0 157 57

NET TRANSFERS Interest on long-term debt Profit remittances on FDI

35 126 2

122 149 92

411 189 0

29 81 0

-3 29 0

91 51 0

166 7 0

213 9 0

7,145 .. 0 .. 321 ..

12,791 .. 0 .. 119 ..

30,764 .. 0 .. 132 ..

7,850 .. 0 .. .. ..

4,642 .. 0 .. .. ..

.. 53.6 .. .. 1.9 8.4 .. 14.8 37.1 35.3

.. 28.1 .. .. 0.4 3.3 .. 14.5 37.5 36.0

.. 12.6 .. .. 0.2 3.4 .. 12.9 39.8 36.4

.. 57.1 .. .. 0.2 .. .. 16.3 39.1 34.4

.. 103.4 .. .. 0.5 .. .. 18.8 38.4 33.6

3. MAJOR ECONOMIC AGGREGATES Gross national income (GNI) Exports of goods, serv. & inc. (XGS) Worker remit. & comp. of employees Imports of goods & services (MGS) International reserves (RES) Current account balance

5,501 1,453 1 1,548 345 -64

8,494 2,035 1 2,287 295 -140

EDT / XGS (%) EDT / GNI (%) TDS / XGS (%) INT / XGS (%) INT / GNI (%) RES / EDT (%) RES / MGS (months) Short-term / EDT (%) Concessional / EDT (%) Multilateral / EDT (%)

166.1 43.9 29.0 12.0 3.2 14.3 2.7 12.8 15.6 11.1

161.1 38.6 23.1 9.9 2.4 9.0 1.5 18.0 28.6 19.4

6,789 .. 0 .. 888 ..

4. DEBT INDICATORS .. 73.5 .. .. 3.5 17.8 .. 13.7 31.4 29.9

432

ZIMBABWE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

5. LONG-TERM DEBT DEBT OUTSTANDING (LDOD) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA Public sector LDOD Private sector LDOD

1,842 1,777 695 269 54 427 324 1,081 401 288 65 0 65

2,681 2,496 1,540 637 129 903 810 956 293 208 185 0 185

3,842 3,461 2,797 1,490 413 1,307 1,154 664 120 162 381 0 381

2,979 2,774 2,436 1,351 544 1,085 876 338 0 198 205 0 205

2,807 2,679 2,348 1,293 522 1,055 824 330 0 195 128 0 128

3,104 3,021 2,651 1,414 565 1,237 982 370 0 239 83 0 83

3,448 3,388 2,960 1,543 619 1,417 1,135 429 0 274 60 0 60

3,604 3,558 3,081 1,610 652 1,471 1,192 477 0 297 46 0 46

205 30 1,777 65

381 67 2,495 186

560 336 3,461 381

416 437 2,767 212

392 418 2,671 136

421 450 3,013 91

453 493 3,381 68

467 516 3,551 53

DISBURSEMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

243 243 130 62 13 68 64 113 0 37 0 0 0

424 297 158 72 7 86 76 139 0 29 127 0 127

573 344 230 124 26 106 92 114 0 72 229 0 229

185 139 125 44 15 81 35 15 0 11 46 0 46

44 39 33 -1 -1 34 0 6 0 6 5 0 5

26 26 26 2 2 23 23 0 0 0 1 0 1

41 39 24 1 0 23 9 15 0 1 2 0 2

56 48 20 9 5 11 11 27 0 3 8 0 8

42 4

40 0

32 15

19 8

0 -2

0 0

0 0

0 0

PRINCIPAL REPAYMENTS Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

197 197 15 0 0 15 2 182 29 113 0 0 0

247 229 78 46 4 32 17 151 30 46 18 0 18

398 307 166 77 7 89 54 142 30 32 91 0 91

212 147 114 77 1 37 14 33 0 12 65 0 65

108 26 23 11 0 12 5 3 0 3 81 0 81

46 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 46

36 11 10 3 1 7 1 1 0 0 25 0 25

50 27 21 6 1 15 4 6 0 0 22 0 22

0 0

33 0

47 1

46 0

11 0

0 0

0 0

2 0

INTEREST PAYMENTS (LINT) Public and publicly guaranteed Official creditors Multilateral Concessional Bilateral Concessional Private creditors of which: Bonds Commercial banks Private nonguaranteed Bonds Commercial banks and other Memo: IBRD IDA

126 126 35 18 1 17 6 91 14 47 0 0 0

149 141 67 43 1 24 15 74 13 28 9 0 9

189 163 115 81 4 34 22 48 6 11 26 0 26

81 64 51 37 2 14 6 13 0 5 17 0 17

29 15 11 4 0 7 3 4 0 3 13 0 13

51 7 2 1 0 2 1 4 0 2 44 0 44

7 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 0 6

9 6 6 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 3

16 0

33 0

46 2

26 1

4 0

0 0

0 0

1 0

433

ZIMBABWE (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 1985

1990

1995

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

6. CURRENCY COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC AND PUBLICLY GUARANTEED DEBT (PERCENT) Euro Japanese yen Pound sterling Swiss franc U.S.dollars

.. 1.3 17.1 0.7 41.9

.. 2.1 13.8 0.9 29.9

.. 3.6 6.7 0.9 26.2

.. 5.4 5.5 0.4 29.9

28.6 4.9 5.4 0.4 31.2

30.5 5.3 5.9 0.4 29.6

33.3 5.3 5.8 0.4 28.1

33.6 5.1 6.0 0.4 28.1

Total amount rescheduled Debt stock rescheduled Principal rescheduled Official Private Interest rescheduled Official Private Debt forgiven Memo: interest forgiven Debt stock reduction of which debt buyback

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8. DEBT STOCK-FLOW RECONCILIATION 234 459 502 -496 -237 -40 335 441 -331 -213 127 148 23 -167 -124 9. AVERAGE TERMS OF NEW COMMITMENTS

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

297 -164 265

597 104 316

315 64 154

7. DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS

Total change in debt stocks Net flows on debt Cross-currency valuation ALL CREDITORS Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Official creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%) Private creditors Interest (%) Maturity (years) Grace period (years) Grant element (%)

TOTAL Principal Interest Official creditors Principal Interest Bilateral creditors Principal Interest Multilateral creditors Principal Interest Private creditors Principal Interest

5.5 24.4 6.8 34.2

6.5 21.9 4.4 21.9

3.8 19.4 5.4 40.5

6.8 12.2 3.7 17.7

7.1 8.1 1.6 9.9

6.1 7.4 1.9 13.4

5.4 9.7 2.2 19.2

2.5 11.9 3.6 37.4

4.4 26.4 7.1 43.3

6.4 23.1 4.7 22.9

3.0 23.3 6.8 50.3

4.8 12.9 3.6 28.0

7.1 8.1 1.6 9.9

3.5 22.0 7.3 47.2

4.2 15.5 4.0 32.6

0.8 13.7 3.9 47.1

6.4 5.8 1.3 9.5

6.3 5.1 0.8 8.7

4.1 10.3 3.4 28.7

9.1 7.2 6.1 13.9 7.4 17.9 10.5 8.8 9.8 10.1 5.9 1.5 1.6 4.1 1.1 6.2 11.9 14.1 -19.5 9.7 10. CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS ON OUTSTANDING LONG-TERM DEBT 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

430 81

305 66

287 55

254 45

201 35

168 29

147 23

109 19

381 71

264 58

246 50

217 41

187 34

164 28

146 23

108 19

176 26

122 23

105 20

89 18

77 17

74 15

67 14

62 12

205 44

143 35

141 29

128 23

111 18

90 13

79 9

46 6

50 10

41 8

40 6

37 3

14 1

3 0

2 0

1 0

Notes: Data source: Data on long-term public and publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed debt for 2004 are based on reports provided by the country. Shortterm debt data are World Bank staff estimates, based on the BIS data on international bank lending.

434

he year 2005 was a landmark in global development finance. Private capital flows to developing countries reached a record net level of $483 billion, much of them going to middleincome countries that took advantage of the surge to improve their external debt profile and build official reserves of foreign exchange. For the poorer countries, which have limited access to market-based external finance, the development community stepped up efforts to enhance aid flows and to reduce debt burdens through new multilateral debt-relief initiatives endorsed by the G-8 group of industrial countries in July 2005. Global Development Finance 2006 highlights this unique opportunity to bolster development efforts and place development finance on a stable footing.

T

The global economy grew by 3.2 percent in 2005, with the growth rate in the developing world exceeding 5 percent for the third year running.While prospects are good for continued robust economic growth in developing countries, risks and vulnerabilities persist— including the possibilities of an abrupt and disorderly correction of global financial imbalances, external shocks leading to further sharp hikes in oil prices, and a buildup of borrowing by countries of lower creditworthiness. As the world economy moves toward a multipolar international monetary system, multilateral cooperation on international monetary relations and exchange rates have become essential for addressing the current imbalances. Developing countries have much at stake. Policy makers in emerging market economies should give priority to strengthening institutions and promoting policies and mechanisms that will improve their ability to navigate in a world economy of increasingly integrated and interdependent global financial and production systems. Favorable financing conditions and robust growth coincide with increasing financial integration among developing countries with South-South flows of capital, now growing more rapidly than North-South flows, mirroring trends in trade flows. Although South-South capital flows remain relatively small, they have the potential to change the landscape of development finance over the next few years, particularly if growth in these countries continues to outpace that in advanced countries. Global Development Finance 2006, I: Analysis and Outlook is the World Bank’s annual review of recent trends in and prospects for

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financial flows to developing countries. It discusses the structural transformation and mainstreaming of emerging debt markets, the increased importance of the euro, the fast-growing phenomenon of credit default swap transactions on emerging sovereign and corporate names, and the greater reliance in developing countries on local-currency financing. It also highlights the difficult challenge that many emerging market economies and oil exporters now face in managing the large inflows of foreign exchange generated from capital flows and trade transactions. “Prospects for the Global Economy” is an online companion to Global Development Finance. It provides information on the global economic outlook, detailed regional forecasts, and additional features such as interactive graphs, analytical tools, and access to underlying data.This online publication is available in English, French, and Spanish at http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook. Global Development Finance 2006, II: Summary and Country Tables includes a comprehensive set of tables with statistical data for 135 countries that report debt under the World Bank Debtor Reporting System, as well as summary data for regions and income groups. It contains data on total external debt stocks and flows, aggregates, and key debt ratios, and provides a detailed, country-by-country picture of debt. Global Development Finance 2006 debt data are also available in electronic format: GDF Online (an electronic subscription database) and the GDF CD-ROM. Each of these electronic databases provides access to 217 historical time series indicators from 1970 to 2004, and country group estimates for 2005. The Little Book on External Debt is a new publication that provides a quick reference to key debt data in aggregate and individual country tables prepared for the convenience of users. With analysis and data extending from short-term bank lending to long-term bond issuance in both local and foreign currency, Global Development Finance 2006 is unique in its breadth of coverage of the trends and issues of fundamental importance to the financing of the developing world, including coverage of capital originating from developing countries themselves.The report is an indispensable resource for governments, economists, investors, financial consultants, academics, bankers, and the entire development community.

For more information on the analysis, please see www.worldbank.org/prospects; further detail about the Summary and Country Tables can be found at www.worldbank.org/data. For general and ordering information, please visit the World Bank’s publications Web site at www.worldbank.org/publications, or call 703-6611580; within the United States, please call 1-800-645-7274.