(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV DVDPHWKRG WRDVVHVVVDIHW\LQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\
&RS\ULJKWE\-/5RXYUR\H $OOUL...
22 downloads
568 Views
5MB Size
Report
This content was uploaded by our users and we assume good faith they have the permission to share this book. If you own the copyright to this book and it is wrongfully on our website, we offer a simple DMCA procedure to remove your content from our site. Start by pressing the button below!
Report copyright / DMCA form
(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV DVDPHWKRG WRDVVHVVVDIHW\LQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\
&RS\ULJKWE\-/5RXYUR\H $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG1RSDUWRIWKLVSXEOLFDWLRQPD\EHUHSURGXFHGVWRUHGLQDUHWULHYDOV\VWHPRU WUDQVPLWWHGLQDQ\IRUPRUE\DQ\PHDQVHOHFWURQLFPHFKDQLFDOSKRWRFRS\LQJUHFRUGLQJRU RWKHUZLVHZLWKRXWSULRUZULWWHQSHUPLVVLRQRIWKHFRS\ULJKWRZQHU &,3'$7$/,%5$5<7(&+1,6&+(81,9(56,7(,7(,1'+29(1 5RXYUR\H-RKDQQHV/
(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLVDVDPHWKRGWRDVVHVVVDIHW\LQWKHSURFHVV LQGXVWU\E\-RKDQQHV/5RXYUR\H(LQGKRYHQ7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW (LQGKRYHQ 3URHIVFKULIW,6%1 18*, 7UHIZRRUGHQ YHLOLJKHLGVV\VWHPHQEHWURXZEDDUKHLGHQYHLOLJKHLGYHLOLJKHLGVV\VWHPHQ 0DUNRYDQDO\VH 6XEMHFWKHDGLQJV VDIHW\V\VWHPVUHOLDELOLW\DQGVDIHW\VDIHW\V\VWHPV0DUNRY$QDO\VLV 3ULQWHGE\8QLYHUVLW\SULQWLQJRIILFH(LQGKRYHQ
(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV DVDPHWKRGWRDVVHVVVDIHW\LQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\
352()6&+5,)7
WHUYHUNULMJLQJYDQGHJUDDGYDQGRFWRUDDQGH 7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW(LQGKRYHQRSJH]DJYDQGH 5HFWRU0DJQLILFXVSURIGU05HPYRRUHHQ FRPPLVVLHDDQJHZH]HQGRRUKHW&ROOHJHYRRU 3URPRWLHVLQKHWRSHQEDDUWHYHUGHGLJHQ RSPDDQGDJPHLRPXXU
GRRU
-RKDQQHV/RXLV5RXYUR\H
JHERUHQWH(OVORR
'LWSURHIVFKULIWLVJRHGJHNHXUGGRRUGHSURPRWRUHQ SURIGULU$&%URPEDFKHU HQ SURIGU3&6DQGHU &RSURPRWRU '0.DU\GDV3(3K'
6XPPDU\
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
,
,,
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
9HLOLJKHLGVV\VWHPHQZRUGHQLQGHSURFHVLQGXVWULHJHEUXLNWRPULVLFR¶VYDQZHJHKHW XLWGHKDQGORSHQYDQSURFHVVHQWHYRRUNRPHQRIWHEHSHUNHQELMYRRUEHHOGGRRUGH SURFHVLQVWDOODWLHV GRRU PLGGHO YDQ HHQ QRRGVWRS DI WH VFKDNHOHQ 9DQZHJH GH]H IXQFWLH ZRUGHQ HU KRJH HLVHQ JHVWHOG DDQ GH EHWURXZEDDUKHLG ZDDUPHH GH]H V\VWHPHQKXQIXQFWLHYHUYXOOHQ 2SGLWPRPHQWLVHUHHQ]HHUVQHOOHWHFKQLVFKHRQWZLNNHOLQJJDDQGHRSKHWJHELHG YDQ YHLOLJKHLGVV\VWHPHQ RQGHU DQGHUH YDQZHJH KHW JHEUXLN YDQ LQIRUPDWLH WHFKQRORJLH7HJHOLMNHUWLMGZRUGHQGHHLVHQDDQKHWWRHJHVWDQHULVLFRWHQJHYROJHYDQ LQGXVWULsOH DFWLYLWHLWHQ VWHHGV VWUHQJHU +HW HIIHFW KLHUYDQ LV GDW GH IRFXV YDQ YHLOLJKHLGVDQDO\VHYHUVFKXLIWYDQDQDO\VHYDQGHLQGLYLGXHOHKDUGZDUHFRPSRQHQWHQ YDQHHQYHLOLJKHLGVV\VWHHPQDDUGHYHLOLJKHLGYDQKHWLQWHJUDOHYHLOLJKHLGVV\VWHHP ,QPRGHUQHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHVWDQGDDUGHQRSGLWJHELHGZRUGWVWHHGVPHHUJHs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sOHFDVHHQ JHwPSOHPHQWHHUG LQ HHQ SURWRW\SH WRRO ,QPLGGHOV LV GH (QKDQFHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VH RRNRSJHQRPHQDOVYRRUEHHOGWHFKQLHNLQGHJHQRHPGHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHVWDQGDDUGHQ
,,,
,9
&RQWHQWV
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
9
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
9,
/LVWRIV\PEROV
$
$YDLODELOLW\
&
&RYHUDJHIDFWRU
)
)DLOXUHSUREDELOLW\
0L
6WDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\IRUSDUDPHWHUL
3
3UREDELOLW\
S
3UREDELOLW\GHQVLW\IXQFWLRQ
3)'
3UREDELOLW\RI)DLOXUHRQ'HPDQG
3)'DYJ
$YHUDJH3UREDELOLW\RI)DLOXUHRQ'HPDQG
3)'DYJ
$YHUDJH3UREDELOLW\RI)DLOXUHRQ'HPDQG
5
5HOLDELOLW\
6))
6DIH)DLOXUH)UDFWLRQ
6U
6DIHUDWLR
W
7LPH
KU
b
&RPPRQFDXVHIDFWRU
l
)DLOXUHUDWH
KU
m
5HSDLUUDWH
KU
p
&RUUHFWLRQIDFWRU
6XSHUVFULSWV 6
6DIH
'
'DQJHURXV
68
6DIHXQGHWHFWHG
6'
6DIHGHWHFWHG
'8
'DQJHURXVXQGHWHFWHG
''
'DQJHURXVGHWHFWHG
&&
&RPPRQFDXVH
9,,
/LVWRIDEEUHYLDWLRQV
(0$
(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV
)0($
)DLOXUH0RGHDQG(IIHFW$QDO\VLV
)0(&$
)DLOXUH0RGH(IIHFWDQG&ULWLFDOLW\$QDO\VLV
)0('$
)DLOXUH0RGHDQG'LDJQRVWLFV$QDO\VLV
)7$
)DXOW7UHH$QDO\VLV
+,336
+LJK,QWHJULW\3UHVVXUH3URWHFWLRQ6\VWHP
+,36
+LJK,QWHJULW\3URWHFWLRQ6\VWHP
0,5
0DWXULW\,QGH[RQ5HOLDELOLW\
3)'
3UREDELOLW\RI)DLOXUHRQ'HPDQG
3)'DYJ
$YHUDJH3UREDELOLW\RI)DLOXUHRQ'HPDQG
5%'
5HOLDELOLW\%ORFN'LDJUDP
6,/
6DIHW\,QWHJULW\/HYHO
6,6
6DIHW\,QVWUXPHQWHG6\VWHP
9,,,
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
, ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN HYHU\RQH ZKR FRQWULEXWHG GLUHFWO\ RU LQGLUHFWO\ WR WKLV ZRUN +RZHYHUVRPHSHRSOHGHVHUYHDVSHFLDOµWKDQN\RX¶ )LUVWRIDOO,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNP\ILUVWVXSHUYLVRU$DUQRXW%URPEDFKHUHVSHFLDOO\IRU KLV HQFRXUDJHPHQW WR VWDUW WKLV UHVHDUFK DQG IRU KLV FUHDWLYLW\ DQG HQWKXVLDVP WKDW VXSSRUWHGPHLQZULWLQJWKLVWKHVLV)XUWKHUPRUH,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNKLPIRUEHLQJD µVSDUULQJSDUWQHU¶LQWKHODUJHQXPEHURIGLVFXVVLRQVZHKDGDQGJHQHUDOO\IRUEHLQJ DYDLODEOHZKHQ,QHHGHGKLVLQSXWPRVW,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNP\VHFRQGVXSHUYLVRU 3HWHU6DQGHUDQGP\FRVXSHUYLVRU'LPLWULRV.DU\GDVIRUWKHLUKHOSDQGFRPPHQWV HVSHFLDOO\ ZLWK WKH UHYLHZV )XUWKHUPRUH , ZRXOG OLNH DOVR WR WKDQN +DQV 1LHXZHQKXL]HQIRUKLVVXSSRUWLQWKHLQLWLDOSKDVHVRIWKLVSURMHFW $ QXPEHU RI SHRSOH KHOSHG LQ UHYLHZLQJ WKLV WKHVLV 0\ VSHFLDO WKDQNV JR WR 5ROI 6SLNHU RI
,;
;
&KDSWHU 6DIHW\LQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\ZK\"
$V LQGLFDWHG LQ WKH WLWOH WKH PDLQ VXEMHFW RI WKLV WKHVLV LV DVVHVVPHQW RI VDIHW\ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ %HIRUH JRLQJ LQWR PRUH GHWDLO WKLV FKDSWHU JLYHV VRPH EDFNJURXQGV RQ WKH UHOHYDQFH RI VDIHW\ DQG RQ WKH ZD\ LW LV DFKLHYHG LQ WKH SURFHVVLQGXVWU\
,QWURGXFWLRQ $QXPEHURILQGXVWULDODFFLGHQWVRIZKLFKDIHZDUHVKRZQLQWDEOHKDYHUHVXOWHG LQLQFUHDVHGLQWHUHVWRIERWKWKHDXWKRULWLHVDQGWKHSXEOLFLQWKHULVNRILQGXVWULDODQG RWKHUDFWLYLWLHV$FFLGHQWVOLNHWKHRQHVOLVWHGKDSSHQDOORYHUWKHZRUOGDQGFDXVHD FRQWLQXRXV WKUHDW WR WKH KHDOWK DQG OLYHV RI ODUJH JURXSV RI SHRSOH DQG WKH HQYLURQPHQWLQJHQHUDO 7DEOH/LVWRIVRPHZHOONQRZQLQGXVWULDODFFLGHQWV>$SH@ 'DWH
/RFDWLRQ
$FFLGHQWGHVFULSWLRQ
6RPHILJXUHV
)OL[ERURXJK8.
([SORVLRQDIWHUUHOHDVHRI F\FORKH[DQH
FDVXDOWLHV LQMXUHG HYDFXDWHG
6HYHVR,WDO\
5HOHDVHRIGLR[LQ
!LQMXUHG HYDFXDWHG
7KUHH0LOH,VODQG 86$
1XFOHDUUHDFWRUIDLOXUH
HYDFXDWHG
%KRSDO,QGLD
/HDNDJHRIPHWK\OLVRF\DQDWH
FDVXDOWLHV LQMXUHG HYDFXDWHG
&KHUQRE\O8665
1XFOHDUUHDFWRUH[SORVLRQ
FDVXDOWLHV LQMXUHG HYDFXDWHG
%DVHO6ZLW]HUODQG
:DUHKRXVHILUH 5HOHDVHRISHVWLFLGHVLQULYHU
8QNQRZQ HQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJH
3LSHU$OSKD1RUWK 6HD
([SORVLRQILUHRQRLODQGJDVGULOOLQJ DQSURGXFWLRQSODWIRUP
FDVXDOWLHV
$V D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKHVH DFFLGHQWV HVSHFLDOO\ WKH 6HYHVR DFFLGHQW D ORW RI FKDQJHVKDYHEHHQLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHPDQDJHPHQWRIULVNRILQGXVWULDOSURFHVVHV 7KHVHFRQVWLWXWHFKDQJHVUHTXLUHGE\QHZLVVXHVDQGDGDSWDWLRQVRI ODZVDVZHOO DVWKRVHGXHWRUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVREWDLQHGIURPWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHDFFLGHQWV7KLV
FKDSWHUGHVFULEHVLQWKHILUVWSDUWEULHIO\VRPHFRPPRQO\XVHGLQGLFDWRUVWRGHVFULEH WKH SHUFHLYHG GDQJHU IURP LQGXVWULDO DFWLYLWLHV DQG WKH ZD\ WKHVH LQGLFDWRUV DUH XVHGLQSUDFWLFH7KHUHPDLQGHURIWKLVFKDSWHUGHVFULEHVVRPHWKHEDVLFFRQFHSWV DQG EDFNJURXQGV RQ KRZ WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ WULHV WR SUHYHQW DFFLGHQWV OLNH WKH DERYH
5LVNDFFHSWHGULVNDQGULVNUHGXFWLRQ 7KHFRPPRQH[SUHVVLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGDQJHUDQGLWVFRQVHTXHQFHVLVULVN,QWKLV SDUDJUDSK VRPH EDFNJURXQGV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH FRQFHSW RI ULVN DFFHSWDELOLW\ RI ULVNDQGULVNUHGXFWLRQZLOOEHGLVFXVVHG &RQFHSWRIULVN $VLOOXVWUDWHGHDUOLHULQGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHVFDQGDPDJHWKHHQYLURQPHQWDQGWKHKHDOWK DQG HYHQ WKH OLYHV RI SHRSOH 7KH FRPPRQO\ XVHG H[SUHVVLRQ IRU WKLV GDPDJH LV
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¼ 6HYHULW\
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
VPDOO WR EH DFFHSWDEOH RU QHJOLJLEOH 7KLV PHDQV WKDW IRU WKLV W\SH RI DFWLYLWLHV QR IXUWKHUULVNUHGXFWLRQLVQHFHVVDU\ 3UREOHPVLQSUDFWLFDOO\XVLQJWKLVDSSURDFKDUHILUVWWKHGHILQLWLRQRIWKHDFFHSWDELOLW\ OLPLWVDQGVHFRQGWKHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVDERXWFRVWVLQUHODWLRQWREHQHILWV
,QWROHUDEOHULVN
5LVN
7ROHUDEOHRQO\LIULVN UHGXFWLRQLVLPSUDFWLFDEOH RUFRVWLPSURYHPHQWUDWLR JURVVO\GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH $/$53UHJLRQ 7ROHUDEOHLIFRVWRI UHGXFWLRQH[FHHGV LPSURYHPHQWJDLQHG 1HJOLJLEOHULVN
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µODUJHVFDOH¶ DFFLGHQW7KLVFULWHULRQLVEDVHGRQ WKHFRQVLGHUDWLRQWKDWHYHQZKHQWKHLQGLYLGXDOULVNFULWHULRQLVPHWDPDMRUDFFLGHQW FRXOGOHDGWRDODUJHQXPEHURIFDVXDOWLHVZKHQWKHKD]DUGRXVDFWLYLW\LVVLWXDWHGLQ DKLJKO\SRSXODWHGDUHD7KHULVNDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVPDMRUW\SHRIDFFLGHQWVVKRXOG DOVREHFRQVLGHUHG 7KHFXUUHQWDFFHSWDELOLW\FULWHULDIRUQHZKD]DUGRXVDFWLYLWLHVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVDUH >0LQ@ ,QGLYLGXDOULVNSUREDELOLW\RIDOHWKDODFFLGHQWIRUDQLQGLYLGXDOH[SRVHGIRUD\HDU WRWKHULVNVH[HUWHGE\WKHDFWLYLW\µRXWVLGHWKHIHQFH¶VKRXOGEHOHVVWKDQ 6RFLHWDOULVNSUREDELOLW\IRU1RUPRUHFDVXDOWLHVZKHUH1! SHU\HDUVKRXOGEH OHVVWKDQ1VHHILJXUH
3UREDELOLW\RIRFFXUUHQFH
(
(
8QDFFHSWDEOH
(
$FFHSWDEOH
(
1XPEHURIFDVXDOWLHV
)LJXUH$FFHSWDEOHVRFLHWDOULVNLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV 5LVNUHGXFWLRQ ,QWKH1HWKHUODQGVTXDQWLWDWLYHULVNFULWHULDDUHODLGGRZQLQODZDVVWDWHGEHIRUH7KH LQGXVWU\KDVWRREH\WKHODZDQGRIWHQKDVWRFRPSO\ZLWKVWDQGDUGVZKLFKLPSOLHV WKDWWKHULVNRILQGXVWULDODFWLYLWLHVKDVWREHEHORZDFHUWDLQOHYHO,IWKLVOHYHOFDQQRW EHDFKLHYHGE\WKHSURFHVVDQGLWVFRQWUROV\VWHPDORQHRWKHUDGGLWLRQDOPHDVXUHV IRUULVNUHGXFWLRQKDYHWREHDSSOLHGVHHILJXUH 3UREDELOLW\RID KD]DUGRXV HYHQW
,QKHUHQW3URFHVV5LVN 45$
'HPDQGVRQVDIHW\ *RYHUQPHQW
,QFOXGLQJ VDIHW\V\VWHP
H H H H H
5HTXLUHG VDIHW\ OHYHO
H H H
$GGHG VDIHW\ V\VWHP $GGHGRWKHU PHDVXUHV
3URFHVV RQO\
)LJXUH5LVNDQGULVNUHGXFWLRQ 7KHDFKLHYHGULVNUHGXFWLRQVKRXOGEHVXFKWKDWDOOULVNUHGXFWLRQUHTXLUHPHQWVDUH PHW 7KH SUHYLRXV SDUDJUDSK VKRZHG WKDW ULVN LV D FRPELQDWLRQ RI SUREDELOLW\ RI RFFXUUHQFHRIKDUPDQGWKHVHYHULW\RIWKDWKDUP7KLVOHDGVWRWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDW
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
7KHXVHRIVDIHW\V\VWHPVLQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\ $VGHVFULEHGEHIRUHVDIHW\V\VWHPVFDQEHXVHGDVRQHRIWKHPHDQVWRUHGXFHULVN IURPSRWHQWLDOO\GDQJHURXVDFWLYLWLHV,QLQGXVWU\JHQHUDOO\ULVNUHGXFWLRQLVREWDLQHG E\DQXPEHURILQGHSHQGHQWDFWLYLWLHVDQGV\VWHPVVHHILJXUH 7KLVSULQFLSOHLV
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
3 U R F H V V
0LWLJ DWLR Q OD \HU
2 SHUDWR U
6D IHW\6\VWH P
&RQW UR O6\VWHP
3 U R F H V V
0LWLJDWLRQ OD\HU
6DIHW\6\VWHP
&RQWURO6\VWHP
)LJXUH'LIIHUHQWDFWLYLWLHVDQGV\VWHPVXVHGWRFRQWUROULVN
2SHUDWRU
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
3RVVLEOH GDQJHU RFFXUV ZKHQHYHU WKH SURFHVV SDUDPHWHU H[FHHGV WKH SURFHVV HTXLSPHQWVDIHW\PDUJLQ,QWKLVVLWXDWLRQWKHPLWLJDWLRQOD\HULVGHVLJQHGWRUHGXFH WKHFRQVHTXHQFHV '$1*(5 SURFHVVHTXLSPHQWVDIHW\PDUJLQ
SURFHVVHTXLSPHQWXSSHUGHVLJQOLPLW
SURFHVVSDUDPHWHU
VDIHW\V\VWHPWULSOHYHO
VDIHW\V\VWHPDFWLRQ
FRQWUROV\VWHPKLJKOHYHODODUP
RSHUDWRUDFWLRQ
KLJKRSHUDWLQJOHYHO FRQWUROV\VWHPSUHDODUP
QRUPDORSHUDWLRQ
ORZRSHUDWLQJOHYHO
7LPH
)LJXUH3URFHVVSDUDPHWHUDQGDFWLYDWLRQOHYHOVRIGLIIHUHQWOD\HUV LQSURFHVVFRQWURO
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
&KDSWHU 6DIHW\LQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\UHFHQWWUHQGV
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
6ROLGVWDWH HOHFWURQLFV\VWHPV 5HOD\V
'HGLFDWHGVDIHW\ PLFURSURFHVVRU V\VWHPV 'HGLFDWHGVDIHW\VROLGVWDWH HOHFWURQLFV\VWHPV
'HGLFDWHGVDIHW\UHOD\V
'HGLFDWHGVDIHW\PHFKDQLFDOGHYLFHV
7LPH
)LJXUH7KHKLVWRU\RIVDIHW\V\VWHPWHFKQRORJ\
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
)LJXUH([DPSOHRIGHGLFDWHGVDIHW\UHOD\
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
)LJXUH([DPSOHRIORJLFVROYHULQVROLGVWDWHWHFKQRORJ\ FRXUWHV\RI
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
)LJXUH([DPSOHRIORJLFVROYHULQPLFURSURFHVVRUWHFKQRORJ\ FRXUWHV\RI
+LVWRU\RIPDQDJHPHQWDQGSUHGLFWLRQRIUHOLDELOLW\ 1RWRQO\WKHVDIHW\V\VWHPKDUGZDUHKDVFKDQJHGDORW$OVRWKHDQDO\VLVSUHGLFWLRQ DQG PDQDJHPHQW RI DFKLHYHG UHOLDELOLW\ KDYH LPSURYHG LQ WKH FRXUVH RI WLPH 7KLV SDUDJUDSKLOOXVWUDWHVWKHGHYHORSPHQWVRQWKHVHDVSHFWV 'XULQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW SURGXFWLRQ DQG XVH RI D SURGXFW OLNH D VDIHW\ V\VWHP D QXPEHURIIDFWRUVFDQLQIOXHQFHWKHDFKLHYHGVDIHW\LQWHJULW\RIWKDWV\VWHP7KHVH LQIOXHQFHV FDQ EH JURXSHG DQG UHSUHVHQWHG LQ D VRFDOOHG ILVKERQH RU ,VKLNDZD GLDJUDPVHHILJXUH & UR QP HQ
W
VH X
J ULQ WX
HU RP
F ID
Q LJ
X DQ
W XV
0
HV '
O
(Q YL
D 0
ULD WH
6DIHW\ LQWHJULW\
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µSURYHQ LQ XVH¶ PHDQLQJ WKDW D ORW RI H[SHULHQFH H[LVWV RI XVDJH RI WKHVH FRPSRQHQWV LQ VLPLODU DSSOLFDWLRQV %XW HYHQ LI WKH GHVLJQ LV SHUIHFW DQG WKH XVHG FRPSRQHQWV DUH µSURYHQ LQ XVH¶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
6\VWHPUHOLDELOLW\
&RPSRQHQW UHOLDELOLW\
1XPEHURIFRPSRQHQWV
)LJXUH6\VWHPUHOLDELOLW\DVIXQFWLRQRIQXPEHUDQGUHOLDELOLW\RIFRPSRQHQWV 'XULQJWKH¶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µEDWKWXE¶ VKDSH VHH ILJXUH 7KH ILUVW SKDVH LQ WKLV FXUYH DOVR FDOOHG µLQIDQW PRUWDOLW\ SKDVH¶ LV FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ D KLJK EXW GHFUHDVLQJ IDLOXUH UDWH 7KLV HIIHFW
ZDV DWWULEXWHG WR SURGXFWV FRQWDLQLQJ FHUWDLQ PDWHULDO DQGRU SURGXFWLRQ IODZV 7KH VHFRQG RU UDQGRP IDLOXUH SKDVH LV FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ D µIODW¶ RU FRQVWDQW IDLOXUH UDWH 7KLVLVGHVFULEHGDVWKHSKDVHIRUQRUPDOXVHXVHIXOOLIH RISURGXFWV7KLVSKDVHLV FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ D ORZ DQG FRQVWDQW IDLOXUH UDWH 0DLQ FDXVHV IRU IDLOXUHV LQ WKLV SKDVHDUHDVVXPHGWREHFDXVHGE\H[WHUQDOHYHQWVRIDUDQGRPQDWXUH7KHWKLUG SKDVH VKRZV DQ LQFUHDVLQJ IDLOXUH UDWH WKDW LV DWWULEXWHG WR HQGRIOLIH GHJUDGDWLRQ DQGZHDURXW
,QIDQWPRUWDOLW\ IDLOXUHUDWH
6\VWHPDWLFZHDURXW
5DQGRPIDLOXUHV lFRQVWDQW
7LPH
)LJXUH$µEDWKWXE¶FXUYHUHSUHVHQWLQJDWLPHGHSHQGHQWIDLOXUHUDWH ,Q 0,/+'%. >0,/@ VLPSOH PDWKHPDWLFDO FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUH UDWH PRGHOV DUH JLYHQ 7KHVH PRGHOV XVH SDUDPHWHUV ILWWHG WR DFWXDO GDWD 6\VWHP UHOLDELOLW\ LV FDOFXODWHGXVLQJSDUWVFRXQWWHFKQLTXHVVHHFKDSWHU 7KHPRGHOVXVHDFRQVWDQW IDLOXUH UDWH DSSURDFK :KHQ ORRNLQJ DW WKH µEDWKWXE¶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
)DLOXUHUDWHIDLOXUHVSHUPLOOLRQKRXUV
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
3UHGLFWHG 0,/+'%.
3UHGLFWHG %7+5'
$FWXDO SURGXFW$
$FWXDO SURGXFW%
3UHGLFWHGDFWXDOIDLOXUHUDWH
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µLQWHUQDO SURGXFW OHYHO¶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µDSSDUDWXV¶ DQGQRWURXEOHIRXQGSURGXFWSHUIRUPVDFFRUGLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQVDOWKRXJKFXVWRPHUUHSRUWHGIDLOXUH 7KLVVWXG\LVFRQVLGHUHGUHOHYDQW EHFDXVH LQ PRGHUQ FRQVXPHU SURGXFWV VLPLODU WHFKQRORJ\ DQG VLPLODU GHYHORSLQJ
SURFHGXUHVDUHXVHGDVWKRVHXVHGIRUVDIHW\V\VWHPVDOWKRXJKRQDIDUPRUHFRVW DQGWLPHGULYHQEDVH &RPSRQHQWV
$SSDUDWXV
&XVWRPHU 1RWURXEOHIRXQG
)LJXUH5HODWLRQRIFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHVWRRWKHUIDLOXUHV>%UR@ 6XPPDULVLQJWKHGLVFXVVLRQDERYHFRXOGEHVWDWHGWKDWWKHFODVVLFDORSLQLRQLVWKDW WKHUHOLDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPLVFRPSOHWHO\GHWHUPLQHGE\WKHUHOLDELOLW\SURSHUWLHVRIWKH FRPSRQHQWV RU VXEV\VWHPV LW FRQVLVWV RI 7KH DERYH GLVFXVVLRQ VKRZV WKDW WKLV RSLQLRQ LV QRW DOZD\V FRUUHFW DQG WKDW LQ RUGHU WR DFKLHYH D KLJK UHOLDEOH V\VWHP HVSHFLDOO\ D V\VWHP XVLQJ D ODUJH QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWV LW LV QRW VXIILFLHQW WR XVH YHU\UHOLDEOHFRPSRQHQWVRQO\ &RPSRQHQWDQGGHVLJQ V\VWHPEDVHG UHOLDELOLW\ 7KH FODVVLFDO ZD\ RI DFKLHYLQJ KLJK UHOLDELOLW\ DV GHVFULEHG EHIRUH LV EDVHG RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI D V\VWHP LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI LWV EXLOGLQJEORFNVFRPSRQHQWV7KHVHEXLOGLQJEORFNVDUHXVHGPRUHRUOHVVDVEODFN ER[HVKDYLQJFHUWDLQIL[HGUHOLDELOLW\SURSHUWLHV5HOLDELOLW\SUREOHPVRFFXUULQJLQWKH DLUFUDIW LQGXVWU\ DQG HVSHFLDOO\ GXULQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI EDOOLVWLF DQG PDQQHG URFNHW SURJUDPV OLNH WKH PHUFXU\ DQG JHPLQL SURJUDPV DFFHOHUDWHG WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RQ SUHGLFWLRQ RI V\VWHP UHOLDELOLW\ 'XH WR WKH ODUJH QXPEHU RI FRPSRQHQWVLWZDVQRWSRVVLEOHWRFUHDWHVXIILFLHQWO\UHOLDEOHV\VWHPV ,IWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIWKHV\VWHPFUHDWHGRIKLJKO\UHOLDEOHFRPSRQHQWVLVQRWVXIILFLHQW RWKHU ZD\V RI LQFUHDVLQJ WKH UHOLDELOLW\ IXUWKHU PXVW EH XVHG $ SRVVLEOH ZD\ WR LQFUHDVH V\VWHP UHOLDELOLW\ IXUWKHU LV WR FRPELQH UHGXQGDQW FRPSRQHQWV LQ VHULHV DQG SDUDOOHO FRQILJXUDWLRQV GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH IXQFWLRQ WKH FRPSRQHQWV KDYH WR SHUIRUP 7KLV DSSURDFK ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI UHOLDELOLW\ SUHGLFWLRQ PHWKRGVOLNHFRPSOH[ UHOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPVDQGODWHUEHFDXVHRIWKHLQFUHDVLQJ FRPSOH[LW\ RI EORFN GLDJUDPV WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI IDXOW WUHHV DQG )0($ )DLOXUH 0RGH DQG (IIHFWV $QDO\VLV VHH FKDSWHU 8VLQJ WKHVH WHFKQLTXHV WKH HIIHFWV RI FRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHVRQV\VWHPOHYHOFDQEHSUHGLFWHG,WZDV VRRQ UHDOLVHG WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI UHGXQGDQF\ RQ UHOLDELOLW\ LV UHGXFHG FRQVLGHUDEO\ E\ VRFDOOHG FRPPRQ FDXVH IDLOXUHV VLPXOWDQHRXV IDLOXUHV RI PXOWLSOH UHGXQGDQW FRPSRQHQWV GXH WR D VLQJOHIDLOXUHFDXVH 7KHV\VWHPVEXLOWDFFRUGLQJWRWKLVSKLORVRSK\DUHQRWRQO\EXLOW IURP KLJKO\ UHOLDEOH FRPSRQHQWV EXW DOVR XVH D GHVLJQ V\VWHP OD\RXW EDVHG RQ UHGXFWLRQRIV\VWHPOHYHOHIIHFWVRIFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHVDVZHOO
6DIHW\V\VWHPVXVLQJWKLVGHVLJQSKLORVRSK\DUHW\SLFDOO\UHGXQGDQW$QH[DPSOHLVD VRFDOOHGRRRXWRI V\VWHP7KLVPHDQVWKDWRXWRIFRPSRQHQWVPXVWEH LQZRUNLQJRUGHUIRUWKHV\VWHPWREHDEOHWRIXOILOLWVIXQFWLRQ$V\VWHPEXLOWLQWKLV ZD\ LV DEOH WR UHPDLQ SHUIRUPLQJ LWV IXQFWLRQ HYHQ LI RQH RI WKH FRPSRQHQWV KDV IDLOHG 8QWLOWKLVSRLQWUHOLDELOLW\KDVEHHQUHJDUGHGXSRQDVEHLQJDIXQFWLRQRIFRPSRQHQW UHOLDELOLW\ DQG V\VWHP OD\RXW 'HVSLWH DOO WKH LPSURYHPHQWV LQ UHOLDELOLW\ SUHGLFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHVDQGWKHLQFUHDVHGFRPSRQHQWUHOLDELOLW\DFFLGHQWVVWLOORFFXU2QHRIWKH UHDVRQV LV WKH YDVWO\ LQFUHDVLQJ FRPSOH[LW\ RI PRGHUQ PLFURSURFHVVRU EDVHG V\VWHPV OHDGLQJ WR DPRQJVW RWKHUV HUURUV GXULQJ RSHUDWLRQV 7KH HIIHFW RI WKLV LV D VKLIW LQ W\SH RI IDLOXUHV IURP VLQJOH KDUGZDUH FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUHV WR FRPSRQHQW LQWHUDFWLRQIDLOXUHVKDUGZDUH±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
6SHFLILFDWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQDQG PDLQWHQDQFH
,QVWDOODWLRQDQG FRPPLVVLRQLQJ
'HVLJQDQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
)LJXUH3ULPDU\FDXVHVRIFRQWUROV\VWHPIDLOXUHV>+6(@ 7KLVILJXUHVKRZVWKDWDOPRVWRIWKHDQDO\VHGDFFLGHQWVUHVXOWHGIURPIDLOXUHVRU RPLVVLRQVPDGHLQWKHGHVLJQSKDVHRIWKHVDIHW\V\VWHP DQGWKDWDOPRVWRI WKH IDLOXUHV ZDV µEXLOW¶ LQWR WKH V\VWHP EHIRUH LW ZDV DFWXDOO\ XVHG LQ QRUPDO RSHUDWLRQ 7KH PDMRU FRQWULEXWLRQ LQ WKLV SDUW FRQVLVWV RI IDLOXUHV GXH WR HUURUV DQG
RPLVVLRQV LQ WKH VSHFLILFDWLRQ 7KH IUDFWLRQ RI DFFLGHQWV UHVXOWLQJ IURP DFWLYLWLHV GXULQJ QRUPDO RSHUDWLRQV LV UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO EXW D VLJQLILFDQW IUDFWLRQ RI DFFLGHQWV KDSSHQHGGXHWRFKDQJHVGXULQJWKHQRUPDORSHUDWLRQVSKDVH $FRPSDULVRQRIWKHVHFRQFOXVLRQVZLWKWKHµEDWKWXE¶FXUYHVHHILJXUH UHYHDOV WKDW D ORW RI IDLOXUHV ZHUH DOUHDG\ SUHVHQW LQ WKH V\VWHPV EXW QRW \HW GLVFRYHUHG 7KLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHµLQIDQWPRUWDOLW\¶W\SHRIIDLOXUHVZDVVWLOOSUHVHQWDOWKRXJKWKH V\VWHP ZDV DOUHDG\ WHVWHG DQG RSHUDWLRQDO 7KDW DJDLQ LPSOLHV WKDW XVDJH RI WKH µFRQVWDQWIDLOXUHUDWH¶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µW9HOG>9HO@,Q¶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
RQWKHW\SHRIPRGLILFDWLRQVRPHRUDOOSKDVHVRIWKHOLIHF\FOHPXVWEHSDVVHGDJDLQ )LQDOO\LIWKHXVHIXOOLIHIRUWKHV\VWHPLVRYHULWZLOOEHGHFRPPLVVLRQHG7KHVDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ RI WKH VDIHW\ V\VWHPV PD\ EH DIIHFWHG E\ DOO DFWLYLWLHV WDNLQJ SODFH LQ DOO SKDVHVLQWKHOLIHF\FOH 'HYHORSPHQW
0RGLILFDWLRQ
3XUFKDVLQJ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
5HSDLU
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
)LJXUH6LPSOLILHGOLIHF\FOHIRUVDIHW\V\VWHPVDGDSWHGIURPLQµW9HOG>9HO@ $VGHVFULEHGEHIRUHWKHFXUUHQWIRFXVIRUDQDO\VLVRIVDIHW\KDVEHHQH[WHQGHGWRWKH FRPSOHWHOLIHF\FOH7KLVLVDOVRH[SUHVVHGLQWRGD\¶VUHJXODWLRQVDQGVWDQGDUGV7KH QH[W SDUDJUDSK ZLOO H[SODLQ LQ PRUH GHWDLO WKH GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI UHJXODWLRQV DQG VWDQGDUGV DQG WKHLU UROH IRU VDIHW\ DQDO\VLV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH QH[W SDUDJUDSK ZLOO GHVFULEHVRPHVWDQGDUGVXVHGLQWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\
5HJXODWLRQVDQGVWDQGDUGVGHYHORSPHQWRIVWDQGDUGV :KHQ D VDIHW\ V\VWHP LV GHYHORSHG EXLOW DQG XVHG LW KDV WR FRPSO\ ZLWK D ORW RI UHJXODWLRQVDQGODZVDQGPLJKWRUPLJKWQRWKDYHWRFRPSO\ZLWKFHUWDLQVWDQGDUGV $OOWKHVH UHJXODWLRQVODZVDQGVWDQGDUGVFDQ EH GLYLGHGLQWR D QXPEHU RI JHQHUDO JURXSV 7KHILUVWJURXSFRQVLVWVRIWKHUXOHVWKDWDUHUHJXODWRU\7KHVHDUHWKHUXOHVLVVXHG E\ JRYHUQPHQW 7KHVH UXOHV FDQ EH LQWHUQDWLRQDO IRU H[DPSOH WKH (XURSHDQ GLUHFWLYHV OLNH WKH 6HYHVR ,, GLUHFWLYH >6HY@ RU QDWLRQDO OLNH WKH 'XWFK PDMRU DFFLGHQWV GHFUHH µ%HVOXLW ULVLFR¶V ]ZDUH RQJHYDOOHQ¶ >6WD@ %HFDXVH RI WKH UHJXODWRU\QDWXUHRIWKLVJURXSWKHV\VWHPVPXVWEHFRPSOLDQWZLWKWKHUXOHVLQ WKH FRXQWU\LQZKLFKWKHV\VWHPZLOOEHXVHG $ VHFRQG JURXS FRQVLVWV RI WKH VRFDOOHG FRQVFLHQFH VWDQGDUGV 7KHVH DUH VWDQGDUGV WKDW KDYH D IRUPDO EDVLV EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH LVVXHG E\ VWDQGDUGV RUJDQLVDWLRQV OLNH ,62 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQLVDWLRQ IRU 6WDQGDUGLVDWLRQ &(1 (XURSHDQ &RPPLWWHH IRU 6WDQGDUGLVDWLRQ $16, $PHULFDQ 1DWLRQDO 6WDQGDUGV
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µDNWHYDQSHUPLVVLH¶ 'XHWRWKHODFNRINQRZOHGJH RI WKH SUREOHPV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH XVDJH RI VWHDP DW WKDW WLPH WKLV OLFHQVH ZDV LVVXHGE\WKHPLQLVWHURISXEOLFHGXFDWLRQQDWLRQDOLQGXVWULHVDQGFRORQLHVµPLQLVWHU YRRU KHW 3XEOLHN 2QGHUZLMV 1DWLRQDOH 1LMYHUKHLG HQ GH .RORQLsQ¶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
([WHQWRIGDPDJH 60LQRULQMXU\WRRQHSHUVRQPLQRU GDPDJHWRWKHHQYLURQPHQW 66HULRXVSHUPDQHQWLQMXU\WRRQHRU PRUHSHUVRQVGHDWKRIRQHSHUVRQ WHPSRUDU\PDMRUGDPDJHWRWKH HQYLURQPHQW 6'HDWKRIVHYHUDOSHUVRQV SHUPDQHQWPDMRUGDPDJHWRWKH HQYLURQPHQW 6&DWDVWURSKLFFRQVHTXHQFHV ([SRVXUHWLPH $6HOGRPWRUHSHDWHGO\ $2IWHQWRSHUPDQHQW 3UREDELOLW\RIXQZDQWHGHYHQW :9HU\ORZ :/RZ :5HODWLYHO\KLJK
:
:
:
*
* *
*
6 $ 6 $ 6 6
$ $
5HTXLUHPHQWFODVV
7KH *HUPDQ ',1 VWDQGDUGV UHODWHG WR VDIHW\ RI VDIHW\ V\VWHPV ',1 9 >',1D@ ',1 >',1@ DQG ',1 9 9'( >',1 ',1E@ VWLOO KDYH D PDMRU LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH VDIHW\ DQDO\VLV SURFHVV RI VXFK V\VWHPV 7KH ',19LQWURGXFHGWKHFRQFHSWRIULVNUHGXFWLRQVKRZQLQFKDSWHUZKHUHWKH ULVNRIDSURFHVVSODQWLVUHGXFHGE\WHFKQLFDODQGQRQWHFKQLFDOPHDVXUHVXQWLODQ DFFHSWDEOHULVNOHYHOLVUHDFKHG7KHVWDQGDUGDOVRLQWURGXFHGDTXDOLWDWLYHPHWKRG FDOOHG WKH ULVN JUDSK IRU WUDQVODWLQJ ULVN WR VRFDOOHG UHTXLUHPHQW FODVVHV *HUPDQ µ$QIRUGHUXQJVNODVVH¶DEEUHYLDWHGDV $. IRUWKHVDIHW\V\VWHPSUHYHQWLQJIURPWKLV ULVNVHHILJXUH
$YRLGLQJWKHKD]DUGV *3RVVLEOHXQGHUVSHFLILFFRQGLWLRQV *$OPRVWLPSRVVLEOH
)LJXUH5LVNJUDSKWUDQVODWHGIURP*HUPDQ',19VWDQGDUG>',1D@
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
)DLOXUHDYRLGDQFH
)DLOXUHFRQWURO
6LPSOH
1RQH
1RUPDO
6LPSOH
'HVLJQ 3ODQQLQJ
6LPSOH 6LPSOH
1RQH 1RWUHDVRQDEOH
3URGXFWLRQ
6LPSOH
1RQH
$VVHPEO\
+LJK
1RWUHDVRQDEOH
0DLQWHQDQFH
6LPSOH
1RWUHDVRQDEOH
0RGLILFDWLRQ
6DPHDVGXULQJGHVLJQ
2SHUDWLRQ 6\VWHPDWLFIDLOXUHV
5DQGRPIDLOXUHV ,QWHUQDO
6LPSOH +LJK
+LJK 6LPSOH
([WHUQDO
6LPSOH
6LPSOH
0HGLXP 0HGLXP
6LPSOH 6LPSOH
0HGLXP
6LPSOH
+LJK
6LPSOH
6RIWZDUHIDLOXUHV 6SHFLILFDWLRQ 'HVLJQ ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
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
0RGLILFDWLRQ
3XUFKDVLQJ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
&RYHUHGE\',1 DQG
5HSDLU
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIOLIHF\FOHFRYHUDJHE\*HUPDQ ',1VWDQGDUGV
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µ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
6WDUW
1R
&RQFHSWXDO3URFHVV 'HVLJQ
'HYHORS6DIHW\ 5HTXLUHPHQWV 6SHFLILFDWLRQ
(VWDEOLVK2SHUDWLRQ 0DLQWHQDQFH3URFHGXUHV
3HUIRUP3URFHVV+D]DUG $QDO\VLV 5LVN $VVHVVPHQW
3HUIRUP6,6&RQFHSWXDO 'HVLJQ YHULI\LWPHHWV WKH656
3UH6WDUWXS6DIHW\ 5HYLHZ$VVHVVPHQW
$SSO\QRQ6,6SURWHFWLRQ OD\HUVWRSUHYHQW LGHQWLILHGKD]DUGVRU UHGXFHULVN
3HUIRUP6,6'HWDLO 'HVLJQ
6,6VWDUWXSRSHUDWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFHSHULRGLF IXQFWLRQDOWHVWLQJ
6,6UHTXLUHG"
6,6,QVWDOODWLRQ &RPPLVVLRQLQJDQG 3UH6WDUWXS$FFHSWDQFH 7HVW
0RGLI\RU 'HFRPPLVVLRQ 6,6"
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
'HILQHWDUJHW6,/
6,6'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
6DIHW\/LIHF\FOHVWHSV FRYHUHGE\ $16,,6$6
0RGLI\
6DIHW\/LIHF\FOHVWHSV QRWFRYHUHGE\ $16,,6$6
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
7DEOH6DIHW\,QWHJULW\/HYHO6,/ DFFRUGLQJ$16,,6$6VWDQGDUG 6DIHW\,QWHJULW\/HYHO6,/
3UREDELOLW\RI)DLOXUHRQ'HPDQG $YHUDJH5DQJH3)'DYJ WR WR WR
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
0RGLILFDWLRQ
3XUFKDVLQJ
2SHUDWLRQ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
&RYHUHGE\ $16,6
5HSDLU
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIOLIHF\FOHFRYHUDJHE\$16,,6$6VWDQGDUG ,(& 7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO (OHFWURWHFKQLFDO &RPPLVVLRQ ,(& GHYHORSHG WKH ,(& VWDQGDUG HQWLWOHG ¶)XQFWLRQDO VDIHW\ RI HOHFWULFDO HOHFWURQLF SURJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLFVDIHW\UHODWHGV\VWHPV¶>,(&@,WLVDJHQHULFVWDQGDUGDLPHGDWSURYLGLQJ D IUDPHZRUN IRU PRUH DSSOLFDWLRQVHFWRU VSHFLILF VWDQGDUGV HJ PHGLFDO WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DQG SURFHVV LQGXVWULHV DOWKRXJK LW FDQ EH XVHG DV VWDQGDORQH VWDQGDUG 7KH GHULYHG VHFWRU VSHFLILF VWDQGDUGV OLNH IRU WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWULHV WKH GUDIW,(&>,(&@ ZLOOKDYHFRPPRQSULQFLSOHVWHUPLQRORJ\HWFWKXVFUHDWLQJ
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µ6DIHW\,QWHJULW\ /HYHOV¶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
/RZGHPDQGPRGHRIRSHUDWLRQ $YHUDJHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHWRSHUIRUPLWVGHVLJQ IXQFWLRQRQGHPDQG WR< WR<
WR<
WR<
7KHVWDQGDUGFRQVLVWVRISDUWVRIZKLFKSDUWVWKURXJKDUHQRUPDWLYH7KHRWKHU SDUWVDUHLQIRUPDWLYHDQGLQFOXGHH[DPSOHVDQGJXLGHOLQHVRQKRZWRFRPSO\ZLWKWKH PDQGDWRU\SDUW$SDUWRIWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVLVJHQHUDOIRUDOOOLIHF\FOHSKDVHVDQGLV UHODWHG WR GRFXPHQWDWLRQ VDIHW\ PDQDJHPHQW DQG VDIHW\ DVVHVVPHQW DQG VDIHW\ YHULILFDWLRQ$QRWKHUSDUWRIWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVLVVSHFLILFIRUHDFKOLIHF\FOHSKDVHDQG WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJLQSXWVDQGRXWSXWVRIWKHOLIHF\FOHSKDVHV &RQFHSW
2YHUDOO6FRSH 'HILQLWLRQ
+D]DUGDQGULVN DQDO\VLV
2YHUDOOSODQQLQJ 2YHUDOO RSHUDWLRQDQG PDLQWHQDQFH SODQQLQJ
2YHUDOO VDIHW\ YDOLGDWLRQ SODQQLQJ
6DIHW\ UHODWHG V\VWHPV ((3(6 5HDOL]DWLRQ
2YHUDOO LQVWDOODWLRQDQG FRPPLVVLRQLQJ SODQQLQJ
6DIHW\ UHODWHG V\VWHPVRWKHU WHFKQRORJ\ 5HDOLVDWLRQ
([WHUQDO ULVNUHGXFWLRQ IDFLOLWLHV 5HDOLVDWLRQ
2YHUDOO LQVWDOODWLRQDQG FRPPLVVLRQLQJ
2YHUDOOVDIHW\ YDOLGDWLRQ
%DFNWRDSSURSULDWH RYHUDOOVDIHW\ OLIHF\FOHSKDVH
2YHUDOO RSHUDWLRQPDLQWH QDQFHDQGUHSDLU
2YHUDOO PRGLILFDWLRQDQG UHWURILW
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ RUGLVSRVDO
7KHVHER[HVDUHQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJILJXUHVLQWKH,(& 7KH\UHSUHVHQWDFWLYLWLHVUHTXLUHGGXULQJDOOSKDVHVRIWKH,(&OLIHF\FOH
)LJXUH2YHUDOOVDIHW\OLIHF\FOHDVLQWURGXFHGE\WKH,(&VWDQGDUG
)XQFWLRQDOVDIHW\DVVHVVPHQW
6DIHW\ UHTXLUHPHQWV DOORFDWLRQ 9HULILFDWLRQ
0DQDJHPHQWRIIXQFWLRQDOVDIHW\
'RFXPHQWDWLRQ
2YHUDOOVDIHW\ UHTXLUHPHQWV
/LPLWDWLRQVRIWKH,(& $ FORVHU ORRN DW WKH VWDQGDUG UHYHDOV WKDW LW PRUH RU OHVV FRPSOHWHO\ FRYHUV WKH FRPSOHWH OLIHF\FOH RI D VDIHW\ V\VWHP &RPSDUHG WR WKH RWKHU VWDQGDUGV LW KDV RQH DGGHGOLIHF\FOHSKDVHLQWKHVLPSOLILHGOLIHF\FOH WKHSURFHVVKD]DUGDQDO\VLV 7KH VDIHW\V\VWHPKDUGZDUHLVFRYHUHGIURPµSLSHWRSLSH¶LQFOXGLQJSURFHVVFRQQHFWLRQ VHQVRUVDQGDFWXDWRUV 3URFHVV+D]DUG DQDO\VLV
'HYHORSPHQW
0RGLILFDWLRQ
3XUFKDVLQJ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
&RYHUHGE\,(&
5HSDLU
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
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
WDNHQGXULQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDV\VWHP7KLVPHDQVWKDWFHUWLILFDWLRQLQJHQHUDOLV RQO\SRVVLEOHIRUUHFHQWO\GHYHORSHGFRPSRQHQWVV\VWHPV
5HFHQWWUHQGV 6XPPDULVLQJ WKH DERYH D QXPEHU RI WUHQGV FDQ EH QRWLFHG RQ KDUGZDUH RQ UHOLDELOLW\PDQDJHPHQWDQGSUHGLFWLRQDVZHOODVRQVWDQGDUGV ,WFDQEHQRWLFHGWKDWWKHVDIHW\V\VWHPKDUGZDUHLVEHFRPLQJLQFUHDVLQJO\FRPSOH[ LQ WKH FRXUVH RI WLPH GXH WR WHFKQRORJ\ LPSURYHPHQWV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ FRPSXWHU WHFKQRORJ\7KHUHVXOWRIWKLVLVJURZWKRIWKHIOH[LELOLW\RIWKHV\VWHPVEXWDWWKHFRVW RI LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHUV RI LQWHUDFWLRQ IDLOXUHV DQG IDLOXUHV GXH WR IRU H[DPSOH LQFUHDVLQJO\ FRPSOH[ VRIWZDUH $QRWKHU GLVDGYDQWDJH LV WKH LQFUHDVLQJ GLIILFXOW\ LQ DQDO\VLQJ WKH VDIHW\ RI WKHVH V\VWHPV )RU VRPH RWKHU WUHQGV UHODWHG WR VDIHW\ V\VWHPKDUGZDUHVHHWDEOH 7DEOH6XPPDU\RIUHFHQWWUHQGVLQKDUGZDUH 7UHQG
)DFLOLWDWLQJDVSHFWV
&RPSOLFDWLQJDVSHFWV
)URPPHFKDQLFDOWR SURJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLF FRPSRQHQWV
,QFUHDVLQJIXQFWLRQDOLW\ DQGIOH[LELOLW\
,QFUHDVLQJFRPSOH[LW\
,QFUHDVLQJ LQQRYDWLRQVSHHG
3RVVLELOLW\IRUHUURU FKHFNLQJVHOIGLDJQRVWLFV UHVXOWLQJLQVDIHU FRPSRQHQWV
$GGHGVDIHW\IXQFWLRQDOLW\ HVSHFLDOO\E\LQWURGXFWLRQRI VRIWZDUH %HWWHUSULFHIXQFWLRQDOLW\ UDWLR
,QFUHDVLQJQXPEHURI LQWHUDFWLRQIDLOXUHV 'HFUHDVLQJDQDO\VDELOLW\ DQGWHVWDELOLW\ 'HFUHDVLQJSRVVLELOLW\IRU TXDQWLILFDWLRQRIDFKLHYHG VDIHW\LQWHJULW\ +DUGWRREWDLQ SURYHQLQ XVH V\VWHPFRPSRQHQWV *DWKHULQJRIUHOLDELOLW\GDWD GLIILFXOW 'LIILFXOWLHVLQUHXVLQJ SUHYLRXVH[SHULHQFH $GGHGQRQVDIHW\ IXQFWLRQDOLW\
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
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIUHFHQWWUHQGVLQUHOLDELOLW\PDQDJHPHQWDQGSUHGLFWLRQ 7UHQG
)DFLOLWDWLQJDVSHFWV
&RPSOLFDWLQJDVSHFWV
)URPFRPSRQHQWWR OLIHF\FOHVDIHW\ DSSURDFK
$OODVSHFWVLQIOXHQFLQJ VDIHW\DUHFRQVLGHUHG
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQGLIILFXOW
)URPTXDOLWDWLYHWR TXDQWLWDWLYHUHOLDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW
&RPSDUDELOLW\
$YDLODELOLW\RIUHOHYDQWDQG UHOLDEOHGDWD
7RROVLPSURYHGXH WRFRPSXWHUXVDJH
0RUHDFFXUDWHPRGHOV SRVVLEOH
0RVWWRROVVWLOOUHO\RQ KXPDQ H[SHUWLQSXW
0RUHFRPSOH[V\VWHPV FDQEHDQDO\VHG 6LPXOWDQHRXVO\ WKH IRFXV RI VDIHW\UHOLDELOLW\ DQDO\VLV KDV VKLIWHG IURP XVLQJ VDIHUHOLDEOH KDUGZDUH FRPSRQHQWV RQO\ WR PDQDJHPHQW RI VDIHW\ LQFOXGLQJ VDIHW\ DVVHVVPHQWDQGVDIHW\YDOLGDWLRQRYHUWKHFRPSOHWHOLIHF\FOHRIDVDIHW\V\VWHP7KLV LVLOOXVWUDWHGLQILJXUHZKLFKLVDQDGDSWHGYHUVLRQRI>+XL@
)RFXVRIUHOLDELOLW\VDIHW\DQDO\VLV
/LIHF\FOH VDIHW\DQGUHOLDELOLW\ 6\VWHP VDIHW\DQGUHOLDELOLW\
0RGXOHDQGVXEV\VWHP UHOLDELOLW\ &RPSRQHQW UHOLDELOLW\
)LJXUH(YROXWLRQRIIRFXVRIUHOLDELOLW\VDIHW\DQDO\VLVDGDSWHGIURP>+XL@ 7KLV FKDQJH RI HPSKDVLV LV DOVR UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW VWDQGDUGV 7KH ROGHU VWDQGDUGVDUHLQJHQHUDOYHU\SUHVFULSWLYHDQGSURGXFWRULHQWHG7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKH VWDQGDUGV SUHVFULEH H[DFWO\ ZKDW WHFKQRORJ\ VKRXOG EH XVHG DQG LQ ZKDW ZD\ WR DFKLHYH VXIILFLHQW VDIHW\ &XUUHQW VWDQGDUGV KRZHYHU DUH SHUIRUPDQFH EDVHG DQG
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
)DFLOLWDWLQJDVSHFWV
&RPSOLFDWLQJDVSHFWV
5LVNUHGXFWLRQ EDVHG
$ZDUHQHVVRILQWURGXFHG ULVN
$FFHSWDELOLW\FULWHULD
)URPSUHVFULSWLYHWR SHUIRUPDQFHEDVHG
/HVVWHFKQRORJ\ GHSHQGHQW
1RWDOZD\VXQDPELJXRXV
)URPFRPSRQHQW ORJLFVROYHURQO\ EDVHGWRFRPSOHWH ORRSLQFOXGLQJ VHQVRUVORJLFVROYHU DQGDFWXDWRUV EDVHG
0RUHEDODQFHGVDIHW\ ,QWHUIDFHRIVDIHW\V\VWHP V\VWHPVQRWRYHURUXQGHU IURPDQGWRSURFHVVKDVWR HQJLQHHUHGLQFHUWDLQSDUWV EHLQFOXGHGLQVDIHW\ DVVHVVPHQW
)URPTXDOLWDWLYHWR TXDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\ DVVHVVPHQW
/HVVVXEMHFWLYH
3UREOHPVTXDQWLI\LQJULVN $VVHVVPHQWSURFHGXUHV QRWDYDLODEOH\HW
5HVXOWLQJFDOFXODWHGVDIHW\ LQWHJULW\LVFRQVLGHUHG LPSRUWDQWDOWKRXJKUHVXOWV FDQQRWDOZD\VEH FRPSDUHGGLIIHUHQWPRGHOV DVVXPSWLRQVGDWD $YDLODELOLW\RIUHOHYDQWDQG UHOLDEOHGDWD 7RROVIRUTXDQWLILFDWLRQRI RUJDQLVDWLRQDODVSHFWVQRW DYDLODEOH\HW
)URPSURGXFW RULHQWHGWROLIHF\FOH RULHQWHG
$OODVSHFWVLQIOXHQFLQJ VDIHW\DUHFRQVLGHUHG
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQGLIILFXOW 8QDYDLODELOLW\RIJXLGHOLQHV
5HVHDUFKWRSLFDQGUHVHDUFKDSSURDFK 6DIHW\ V\VWHPV DUH XVHG LQ WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ WR UHGXFH WKH ULVNV RI SURFHVVHV UXQQLQJ RXW RI FRQWURO IRU H[DPSOH E\ VKXWWLQJ GRZQ WKH SURFHVV 'XH WR WKLV IXQFWLRQ VWURQJ UHTXLUHPHQWV DUH LPSRVHG RQ WKH IXQFWLRQDOLW\ DQG RQ WKH VDIHW\
LQWHJULW\ UHOLDELOLW\ ZLWK ZKLFK WKHVH V\VWHPV IXOILO WKHLU IXQFWLRQ 2QH RI WKH UHFHQW WUHQGVLQWKHILHOGRIVDIHW\V\VWHPVDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGVWDQGDUGVLVWKHVKLIWRIWKH IRFXVRIVDIHW\DQDO\VLVIURPµUHTXLUHPHQWVRQLQGLYLGXDOKDUGZDUHFRPSRQHQWVRID VDIHW\V\VWHP¶WRµDQDO\VLVRIWKHLQWHJUDOVDIHW\V\VWHP¶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
4XDOLWDWLYH
4XDQWLWDWLYH
7HFKQLFDO VDIHW\UHOLDELOLW\ 4XDOLWDWLYHUHOLDELOLW\DQDO\VLV WRROV &KHFNOLVWV 'HVLJQJXLGHOLQHV « 4XDQWLWDWLYHUHOLDELOLW\DQDO\VLV WRROV 3DUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLV 5HOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPV )DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV 0DUNRYDQDO\VLV «
%XVLQHVVSURFHVVUHODWHG VDIHW\UHOLDELOLW\ 7KHROG ,62IUDPHZRUN >,62@
6WDQGDUGLVHGWRROVQRWDYDLODEOH \HWDOWKRXJKWKH0,50DWXULW\ ,QGH[RQ5HOLDELOLW\ DSSURDFK >%URD@VHHPVSURPLVLQJ
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
&KDSWHU $YDLODEOHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVWKHLUFDSDELOLWLHVDQG VKRUWFRPLQJV
7KLV FKDSWHU ZLOO VKRZ WKDW D QXPEHU RI DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV DUH XVHG IRU VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\DQDO\VLVRIVDIHW\V\VWHPV6RPHRIWKHVHWHFKQLTXHVFDQEHFKDUDFWHULVHG DV EHLQJ RI D PRUH TXDOLWDWLYH QDWXUH RWKHUV FDQ EH FKDUDFWHULVHG DV EHLQJ RI D TXDQWLWDWLYH QDWXUH ,Q WKH QH[W SDUDJUDSKV WKH PRVW FRPPRQO\ XVHG DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHVZLOOEHGHVFULEHGEULHIO\$WWKHHQGRIWKLVFKDSWHUDOOGHVFULEHGDQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHVZLOOEHFRPSDUHGRQDQXPEHURIDVSHFWVDQGVRPHFRQFOXVLRQVZLOOEH IRUPXODWHG
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
4XDOLWDWLYH
$QDO\VLVE\ H[SHUWV )DLOXUH0RGHDQG (IIHFWV$QDO\VLV
6DIHW\ DVVHVVPHQW
)DXOW7UHH $QDO\VLV 3DUWVFRXQW DQDO\VLV 5HOLDELOLW\EORFN GLDJUDPV 4XDQWLWDWLYH +\EULG WHFKQLTXHV
0DUNRYDQDO\VLV
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
ZLOOFORVH)RUWKHDQDO\VLVLWZLOOEHDVVXPHGWKDWDOOFRPSRQHQWVH[FHSW WKHSRZHUVXSSO\FDQIDLOLQWZRPDLQIDLOXUHPRGHVGDQJHURXVDQGVDIH $ FRPSRQHQW IDLOV GDQJHURXV LI WKH FRPSRQHQW GXH WR WKH IDLOXUH LV QRW DEOHWRSHUIRUPLWVIXQFWLRQZKHQDGHPDQGIURPWKHSURFHVVRFFXUVLHLI WKHSUHVVXUHLVWRRKLJK $FRPSRQHQWIDLOVVDIHLIWKHFRPSRQHQWGXHWR D IDLOXUH SHUIRUPV LWV VDIHW\ IXQFWLRQ DOWKRXJK QR GHPDQG IURP WKH SURFHVVRFFXUV)RUWKLVH[DPSOHWKHSRZHUVXSSO\LVDVVXPHGWRIDLORQO\ LQ D VDIH PRGH ORVV RI SRZHU )RU HDFK FRPSRQHQW WKH IDLOXUH UDWH LV JLYHQERWKIRUVDIHDQGGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHPRGHV,WLVH[SUHVVHGDV IDLOXUH PRGH lFRPSRQHQW QDPH
7KH FRPSRQHQW QDPH LV WKH DEEUHYLDWLRQ XVHG IRU WKH QDPH RI WKH FRPSRQHQWHJ69IRUVDIHW\YDOYH 7KHIDLOXUHPRGHLVWKHDEEUHYLDWLRQ IRUWKHIDLOXUHPRGHHJ6IRU6DIHDQG'IRU'DQJHURXVIDLOXUHV&&IRU &RPPRQ &DXVH IDLOXUHV &RPSRQHQW IDLOXUHV DUH DVVXPHG WR EH LQGHSHQGHQWH[FHSWIRUFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHVRIUHGXQGDQWFRPSRQHQWV 6HQVRU 6 3RZHU 6XSSO\ 36
6HQVRU 6
3UHVVXUH 9HVVHO
6DIHW\9DOYH 69
)LJXUH/D\RXWRIWKHH[DPSOH
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
DQDO\VLV LV JLYHQ LQ WHUPV OLNH µKLJK¶ µPHGLXP¶ RU µORZ¶ IRU WKH YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI V\VWHP EHKDYLRXU 5HFRPPHQGDWLRQV DUH JLYHQ LQ WHUPV OLNH µGR QRW XVH¶ µUHFRPPHQGHG¶µKLJKO\UHFRPPHQGHG¶DQGµSUHVFULEHG¶,IVDIHW\LVPHDVXUHGXVLQJ WKLV W\SH RI DSSURDFK WKH UHVXOW ZLOO EH D UDQNLQJ IRU H[DPSOH WKH µ$QIRUGHUXQJVNODVVH¶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µIUHTXHQW¶ µRFFDVLRQDOO\¶ µXQOLNHO\¶ DQG WKH IDLOXUH FRQVHTXHQFHV VHYHULW\ H[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVOLNHµFDWDVWURSKLF¶µFULWLFDO¶µPDUJLQDO¶µPLQRU¶ LVGHWHUPLQHG)RU DQ )0(&$ WKH FULWLFDOLW\ LV FDOFXODWHG E\ DVVLJQLQJ D QXPEHU WR SUREDELOLW\ DQG VHYHULW\ FODVVHV DQG PXOWLSO\LQJ WKHVH QXPEHUV 7KLV OHDGV WR D UDQNLQJ IRU WKH FULWLFDOLW\WKDWFDQEHXVHGDVDSULRULW\OLVW,QJHQHUDODWHDPRIGLIIHUHQWVSHFLDOLVWV SHUIRUPVWKH)0($7KHUHVXOWVRIDQ)0($DUHH[SUHVVHGLQDZRUNVKHHW 7KH SURFHGXUH GHVFULEHG EHIRUH LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH )0($ LV D ERWWRP XS PHWKRG VWDUWLQJ IURP FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUH DQG HQGLQJ DW WKHLU FRQVHTXHQFHV DW V\VWHP OHYHO
7KH UHVXOW LV TXDOLWDWLYH LQ QDWXUH 7KH QXPEHUV XVHG JHQHUDOO\ GR QRW TXDQWLI\ V\VWHPEHKDYLRXUEXWJLYHDQLQGLFDWLRQRIWKHSULRULW\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFRQVLGHUHG FRPSRQHQWIDLOXUH7KH)0($PLJKWEHXVHGWRFROOHFWIDLOXUHGDWDZKHQIDLOXUHUDWHV DUHDGGHGLQWKHZRUNVKHHW&RPSXWHULVHGZRUNVKHHWVDUHDYDLODEOH $GYDQWDJHVRI)0($ SUHYLRXVH[SHULHQFHLVXVHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJDQGGRFXPHQWDWLRQRIWKHZD\WKHV\VWHPZRUNVPD\EHLPSURYHG JRRGVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHV 'LVDGYDQWDJHVRI)0($ FRPSOHWHQHVV RI DQDO\VLV FDQ EH TXHVWLRQHG LV HYHU\ IDLOXUH PRGH FRYHUHG" >,6$E@ QR TXDQWLILFDWLRQ LV SRVVLEOH DOWKRXJK UDQNLQJV DUH XVLQJ WKH VDPH WHDP RI VSHFLDOLVWV GLIIHUHQW WHDPV PLJKW JLYH FRPSOHWHO\ GLIIHUHQW DQDO\VLV UHVXOWV EDVHG RQ WKH PHPEHUVH[SHULHQFH GLIILFXOWIRUFRPSOH[V\VWHPVEHFDXVHRITXDQWLW\RILQIRUPDWLRQQHHGHG>,(&@ PXOWLSOHIDLOXUHVDUHLQJHQHUDOQRWLQFOXGHG>,(&,6$E@ FRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHVDUHLQJHQHUDOQRWLQFOXGHG>,(&,6$E@ UHVXOWVFDQEHPLVOHDGLQJGXHWRKXPDQLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ>,6$E@ 7DEOHSUHVHQWVSDUWRI D)DLOXUH0RGHDQG(IIHFWV$QDO\VLVZRUNVKHHW IRUWKHH[DPSOH 7DEOH3DUWRIWKH)0($ZRUNVKHHWIRUWKHH[DPSOH 1DPH &RGH )XQFWLRQ )DLOXUHPRGH )DLOXUHFDXVH )DLOXUHHIIHFW 3UHVVXUHVZLWFK 6 %UHDNSRZHU %UHDNVSRZHU :URQJVHWWLQJ )DOVHWULS LISUHVVXUHWRRKLJK EHORZVHWSUHVVXUH 9LEUDWLRQ )DOVHWULS )DWLJXH )DOVHWULS 'RHVQRWEUHDN &RUURVLRQ 6HQVRUFDQQRWWULS SRZHUVKRUWHG V\VWHP 3RZHUVXUJH 6HQVRUFDQQRWWULS V\VWHP 3UHVVXUHVZLWFK 6 %UHDNSRZHU %UHDNVSRZHU :URQJVHWWLQJ )DOVHWULS LISUHVVXUHWRRKLJK EHORZVHWSUHVVXUH 9LEUDWLRQ )DOVHWULS )DWLJXH )DOVHWULS 'RHVQRWEUHDN &RUURVLRQ 6HQVRUFDQQRWWULS SRZHUVKRUWHG V\VWHP 3RZHUVXUJH 6HQVRUFDQQRWWULS V\VWHP 6DIHW\YDOYH 69 &ORVHVXSSO\ 6WXFNRSHQ &RUURVLRQ 6\VWHPFDQQRWWULS WRYHVVHO 'LUW 6\VWHPFDQQRWWULS )DLOVFORVHG 9LEUDWLRQ )DOVHWULS )DWLJXH )DOVHWULS &RLORSHQ 3RZHUVXUJH )DOVHWULS &RLOVKRUW &RUURVLRQ )DOVHWULS 3RZHUVXSSO\ 36 6XSSO\SRZHU 1RSRZHU 1RLQSXWSRZHU )DOVHWULS &RUURVLRQ )DOVHWULS 6KRUW :LULQJIDLOXUH )DOVHWULS
5HPDUNV
6\VWHPGRHVQRWWULS LIERWKVHQVRUVIDLO 6\VWHPGRHVQRWWULS LIERWKVHQVRUVIDLO
6\VWHPGRHVQRWWULS LIERWKVHQVRUVIDLO 6\VWHPGRHVQRWWULS LIERWKVHQVRUVIDLO
,IFRLORSHQVYDOYHFORVHV ,IFRLORSHQVYDOYHFORVHV
4XDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHV 7KHQH[WSDUDJUDSKVZLOOGLVFXVVD QXPEHURIIUHTXHQWO\XVHG TXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHVWKDWDUHDOVRUHFRPPHQGHGLQWKHVWDQGDUGVGLVFXVVHGLQFKDSWHU 3DUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLV 3DUWV FRXQW DQDO\VLV RU FRPSRQHQW FRXQW DQDO\VLV LV DQ DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH WR FDOFXODWH WKH IDLOXUH UDWH RI D V\VWHP ZKHQ WKH IDLOXUH UDWHV RI LWV FRPSRQHQWV DUH NQRZQ>/HZ@7KLVWHFKQLTXHLVEDVHGRQDQXPEHURIDVVXPSWLRQV>%UR@ DOOVLPLODUFRPSRQHQWVDUHWRDODUJHH[WHQW LGHQWLFDO DOOVLPLODUVXE V\VWHPVDUHWRDODUJHH[WHQW LGHQWLFDO DOOFRPSRQHQWVLQDV\VWHPDUHWRDODUJHH[WHQW LQGHSHQGHQW WKHXVHRIDVXE V\VWHPLVWRDODUJHH[WHQW FRQVWDQWDQGWLPHLQGHSHQGHQW IDLOXUHRIDVLQJOHFRPSRQHQWVXEV\VWHPOHDGVWRIDLOXUHRIWKHWRWDOV\VWHPQR UHGXQGDQF\ %HFDXVHRIWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWDVLQJOHIDLOXUHRIDFRPSRQHQWOHDGVWRIDLOXUHRIWKH FRPSOHWH V\VWHP WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKH V\VWHP LV JLYHQ E\ WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW DOO FRPSRQHQWVKDYHQRWIDLOHGDVVXPHQFRPSRQHQWV
5V\VWHP (W ) = 3 2. (FRPS ¬ FRPS L ¬ FRPS Q )
%HFDXVH RI WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUHV DUH LQGHSHQGHQW WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW DOO FRPSRQHQWV DUH QRW IDLOHG FDQ EH ZULWWHQ DV WKH SURGXFW RI WKH SUREDELOLWLHVWKDWWKHLQGLYLGXDOFRPSRQHQWVKDYHQRWIDLOHG
5V\VWHP (W ) = 3 2. (FRPS ) 3 2. (FRPS ) L 3 2. (FRPS Q )
6LQFH WKH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW D FRPSRQHQW LV QRW IDLOHG LV HTXDO WR WKH UHOLDELOLW\ RI WKDW FRPSRQHQWLIWKHFRPSRQHQWLVQRWUHSDLUHG
5V\VWHP (W ) =
º5
FRPSRQHQW DOO FRPSRQHQWV
(W )
8VLQJWKHUHODWLRQRIIDLOXUHUDWHDQGUHOLDELOLW\ l (W ) = -
G 5(W ) 5(W ) GW
WKLVOHDGVWR
l V\VWHP (W ) =
Êl
FRPSRQHQW DOO FRPSRQHQWV
(W )
7KLV HTXDWLRQ VKRZV WKDW WKH V\VWHP IDLOXUH UDWH FDQ EH REWDLQHG E\ VXPPLQJ DOO FRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHUDWHV 8VLQJ WKH V\VWHP IDLOXUH UDWH SDUDPHWHUV OLNH V\VWHP UHOLDELOLW\ DQG V\VWHP DYDLODELOLW\ FDQ HDVLO\ EH FDOFXODWHG 2IWHQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ LV XVHG WKDW FRPSRQHQW
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p IRU HQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWV DQG RWKHU SDUDPHWHUV LQIOXHQFLQJFRPSRQHQWUHOLDELOLW\OLNHTXDOLW\SRZHUUDWLQJDQGDSSOLFDWLRQ
lFRPS = lEDVH (7 )
ºp
L DOO FRUUHFWLRQ IDFWRUV
)RUPLFURFLUFXLWVDPRUHFRPSOLFDWHGH[SUHVVLRQLVXVHG
lFRPS = (&p 7 + &p ( )
ºp
L DOO RWKHU FRUUHFWLRQ IDFWRUV
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l V\VWHP = lDOO + lDOO + lDOO + lDOO 36 6 6 69
)RU FRQVWDQW IDLOXUH UDWHV WKLV OHDGV WR UHOLDELOLW\ 5W DQG D IDLOXUH SUREDELOLW\)W JLYHQE\
5V\VWHP (W ) = H
- lV\VWHPW
)V\VWHP (W ) = - H
- lV\VWHPW
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¡ HW DO >$DU@ DQG LQ WKH VWDQGDUG ,(& SDUW >,(&@ )RU VHULHV V\VWHPV WKH V\VWHP IDLOV LI RQH FRPSRQHQW IDLOV WKH UHOLDELOLW\ FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG VLPLODU WR WKH FDOFXODWLRQLQWKHSDUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLVE\
5V\VWHP (W ) =
º5
FRPSRQHQW DOO FRPSRQHQWV
(W )
)RU DFWLYH SDUDOOHO V\VWHPV WKH V\VWHP IDLOV LI DOO SDUDOOHO FRPSRQHQWV IDLO WKH SUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHV\VWHPIDLOVFDQEHH[SUHVVHGDVDVVXPLQJQFRPSRQHQWV
)V\VWHP = 3 )$,/(' (FRPS ¬ FRPS L ¬ FRPS Q )
8VLQJWKHLQGHSHQGHQFHRIWKHFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHVWKLVFDQEHH[SUHVVHGDV )V\VWHP = 3 )$,/(' (FRPS )3 )$,/(' (FRPS ) L 3 )$,/(' (FRPS Q ) )V\VWHP =
º3
)$,/('
DOO FRPSRQHQWV
(FRPS )
7KHUHVXOWRIWKHDQDO\VLVLVDV\VWHPIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\DWDFHUWDLQWLPHZKLFKLVD PHDVXUHIRUVDIHW\LQWHJULW\ +\EULGWHFKQLTXHV 2IWHQ EORFN GLDJUDPV DUH XVHG LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK UHVXOWV IURP RWKHU DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV RQ FRPSRQHQW OHYHO 7KH UHVXOW LV D VWDQGDUGLVHG DSSURDFK WKDW UHVHPEOHVDORRNXSWDEOH7KHVHWHFKQLTXHVZLOOEHUHIHUUHGWRDVK\EULGWHFKQLTXHV LQ WKLV WKHVLV VHH IRU H[DPSOH ,(& SDUW >,(&@ RU 5HOLDELOLW\ 3UHGLFWLRQ +DQGERRN&RPSXWHU%DVHG3URFHVV6DIHW\6\VWHPV>$DU@
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
6DIHIDLOXUH6
6DIHIDLOXUH6
6DIHIDLOXUH69
)LJXUH5HOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPIRUVDIHIDLOXUHVIRUWKHH[DPSOH 7KLV GLDJUDP VKRZV WKDW D VDIH IDLOXUH RI DQ\ FRPSRQHQW ZLOO OHDG WR D VDIHIDLOXUHRIWKHV\VWHPYDOYHFORVHVDOWKRXJKQRGHPDQGRFFXUV 7KLV OHDGVWRWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQIRUWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDVDIHV\VWHPIDLOXUH XVLQJHTXDWLRQ
6 6 (W ) 3V\VWHP W = - 5V\VWHP
6 6 3V\VWHP W = - º 5FRPS L (W ) L =
(
6 6 3V\VWHP W = - º - 3FRPS L W L =
)
7KHFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVFDQEHFDOFXODWHGE\
(
6 6 3FRPS = - H[S - lFRPS W
)
)RUVPDOOFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDVDIHV\VWHP IDLOXUHFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGE\ 6 3V\VWHP W = 3366 W + 366 W + 366 W + 3696 W
7KHUHOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPIRUGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHVFDQEHVHHQLQILJXUH 'DQJHURXV IDLOXUH6 &RPPRQFDXVH IDLOXUH66
'DQJHURXV IDLOXUH69 'DQJHURXV IDLOXUH6
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
1H[W WKH V\VWHP FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV D VHULHV V\VWHP FRQVLVWLQJ RI D EORFNIRUWKHVHQVRUVXEV\VWHPDQGDEORFNIRUWKHYDOYH8VLQJHTXDWLRQ WKHSUREDELOLW\RIV\VWHPIDLOXUHFDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV
(
)(
' ' ' ' 3V\VWHP W = - - 36 W 36 W - 369 W
)
,IFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHVDUHLQFOXGHGWKHSUREDELOLW\LVJLYHQE\
' ' && ' ' && ' (W ) + 3V\VWHP (W )3V\VWHP 3V\VWHP W = 36 W - 36 W
7KLVFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGIRUVPDOOFRPSRQHQWIDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHVE\ ' ' && 3V\VWHP W + 36' W 36' W + 369' W W = 36
8VLQJWKHDERYHUHVXOWVWKHUHOLDELOLW\FDQFDOFXODWHGDV
(
' 6 5V\VWHP W = - 3V\VWHP W + 3V\VWHP W
)
)DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV )DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV>,(&@LVDWHFKQLTXHXVHGWRLGHQWLI\DQGDQDO\VHFRQGLWLRQVDQG IDFWRUV WKDW FDXVH RU FRQWULEXWH WR WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI D GHILQHG XQGHVLUDEOH HYHQW 7KLV XQGHVLUDEOH HYHQW LV UHIHUUHG WR DV µWRS HYHQW¶ 7KH IDXOW WUHH LWVHOI LV DQ RUJDQLVHGJUDSKLFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIV\VWHPEHKDYLRXU)DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLVLVDWRS GRZQPHWKRGDLPHGDWILQGLQJFDXVHVEDVLFHYHQWV RUFRPELQDWLRQVRIFDXVHVWKDW FDQ OHDG WR WKH GHILQHG WRS HYHQW 7KH DQDO\VLV LV PDLQO\ TXDOLWDWLYH KRZHYHU E\ XVLQJ %RROHDQ DOJHEUD DOVR TXDQWLWDWLYH UHVXOWV FDQ EH REWDLQHG ,Q JHQHUDO WKH FDOFXODWLRQ UHVXOW LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ IRU WKH WRS HYHQW WR RFFXU DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI WKH EDVLF HYHQWV )DXOW WUHH DQDO\VLV LV D ZLGHO\ XVHG DQG DFFHSWHG DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH ,I WKH IDXOW WUHH LV HYDOXDWHG TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ WKH UHVXOW LV D SUREDELOLW\WKDWTXDQWLILHVWKHVDIHW\LQWHJULW\ $GYDQWDJHVRIIDXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV FRPSOH[ V\VWHPV FDQ EH KDQGOHG E\ GHFRPSRVLQJ WKH V\VWHPV LQWR VHSDUDWH SDUWVHDFKZLWKWKHLURZQIDXOWWUHH QRW RQO\ KDUGZDUH DQG VRIWZDUH IDLOXUHV EXW DOVR RWKHU IDLOXUH FRQGLWLRQV DQG IDFWRUV LQIOXHQFLQJ IDLOXUHV OLNH KXPDQ IDFWRUV FDQ EH KDQGOHG PRVWO\ LQ D TXDOLWDWLYHZD\ WRROV DUH DYDLODEOH IRU HYDOXDWLRQ TXDQWLILFDWLRQ DQG HYHQ DXWRPDWLF JHQHUDWLRQ RIIDXOWWUHHV>.RF.XP@ PRGHOFDQEHXQGHUVWRRGE\QRQVSHFLDOLVWV XVHIXOIRUDQDO\VLVRIV\VWHPVFRQWDLQLQJUHGXQGDQF\ 'LVDGYDQWDJHVRIIDXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV JHQHUDOO\ DLPHG DW RQH VSHFLILF WRSHYHQW VR GLIIHUHQW PRGHOV DUH QHHGHG IRU GLIIHUHQWWRSHYHQWVOLNHVDIHVSXULRXVWULS DQGGDQJHURXVV\VWHPIDLOXUHV XVXDOO\ WKH FDOFXODWHG UHVXOW LV WKH SUREDELOLW\ IRU WKH WRSHYHQW DW D FHUWDLQ WLPH RIWHQVWHDG\VWDWH >1JR@ VHTXHQWLDO HYHQWV FDQQRW EH PRGHOOHG XVLQJ WUDGLWLRQDO IDXOW WUHHV >1JR@ 1HZ GHYHORSPHQWV OLNH µG\QDPLF IDXOW WUHHV¶ FDQ LPSOHPHQW VHTXHQFH GHSHQGHQW DVSHFWVRIVDIHW\EHKDYLRXU UHSDLUPRGHOVIRUH[DPSOHOLPLWHGUHSDLUUHVRXUFHVRUORJLVWLFFRQVWUDLQWV FDQQRW EHDGHTXDWHO\UHSUHVHQWHG>$VK@
LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ HYHQWV FDQQRW EH PRGHOOHG HJ RFFXUUHQFH RI RQH EDVLF HYHQWKDVHIIHFWRQWKHRFFXUUHQFHRIRWKHUHYHQWV >1JR@ 8VLQJIDXOWWUHHDQDO\VLVRQWKHH[DPSOH 7KH IDXOW WUHH IRU WKH VDIHW\ V\VWHP XVHG LQ WKH H[DPSOH FDQ EH EXLOW V\VWHPDWLFDOO\DVVKRZQLQILJXUH 6WDUWLQJ SRLQW LV WKH WRS HYHQW µWKH V\VWHP IDLOV LQ D VDIH PRGH¶ 7KLV PHDQVWKDWWKHVDIHW\YDOYHLVFORVHGZLWKRXWDGHPDQGIURPWKHSURFHVV 7KDW LV SRVVLEOH LI WKH VDIHW\ YDOYH LWVHOI IDLOV LQ D VDIH PRGH RU LI LW UHFHLYHVDFORVLQJVLJQDOSRZHUEUHDN 7KHFORVLQJVLJQDOFDQEHJLYHQ E\ VHQVRURUE\VHQVRU$QRWKHUUHDVRQIRUFORVLQJFDQ EH WKH ORVV RI SRZHU GXH WR D IDLOXUH RI WKH SRZHU VXSSO\ 7KH VHQVRUV LVVXH D FORVLQJ VLJQDOLIWKH\KDYHIDLOHGLQDVDIHPRGH 25 $1'
25JDWH
6\VWHPIDLOV 6DIH
$1'JDWH %DVLFHYHQW &RPPHQW
69FORVHG ZLWKRXW GHPDQG
25
69JRWFORVLQJ VLJQDO
69IDLOV6DIH
25
36IDLOV6DIH
6JLYHV FORVLQJVLJQDO
6JLYHV FORVLQJVLJQDO
36IDLOV6DIH
6IDLOV6DIH
6IDLOV6DIH
)LJXUH)DXOWWUHHIRUVDIHIDLOXUHVIRUWKHH[DPSOH
25 $1'
25JDWH
6\VWHPIDLOV 6DIH
$1' JDWH %DVLFHYHQW &RPPHQW
69FORVHG ZLWKRXW GHPDQG
25
36IDLOV6DIH
6JLYHV FORVLQJVLJQDO
6JLYHV FORVLQJVLJQDO
69FORVHG
36IDLOV6DIH
6IDLOV6DIH
6IDLOV6DIH
69IDLOV6DIH
)LJXUH5HGXFHGIDXOWWUHHIRUVDIHIDLOXUHVIRUWKHH[DPSOH 7KH IDXOW WUHH IRU VDIH IDLOXUHV FDQ EH VLPSOLILHG WR WKH IDXOW WUHH JLYHQ LQ ILJXUH 4XDQWLI\LQJ WKLV IDXOW WUHH OHDGV WR H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH HTXDWLRQV DV WKRVH XVHGLQWKHUHOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPIRUWKLVH[DPSOHIRUVPDOOFRPSRQHQW IDLOXUHSUREDELOLWLHV 6 3V\VWHP W = 3366 W + 366 W + 366 W + 3696 W
7KH IDXOWWUHHIRUGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHVFDQ EHFRQVWUXFWHGLQDVLPLODU ZD\ VHH ILJXUH 7KH WRS HYHQW LV µWKH V\VWHP IDLOV GDQJHURXV¶ ZKLFK LV HTXLYDOHQWZLWKWKHVDIHW\YDOYHGRHVQRWFORVHDOWKRXJKDGHPDQGIURP WKH SURFHVV RFFXUV 7KLV FDQ RFFXU LI WKH VDIHW\ YDOYH LWVHOI IDLOV LQ D GDQJHURXV PRGH RU LI WKH VDIHW\ YDOYH GRHV QRW JHW D FORVLQJ VLJQDO SRZHUEUHDN ZKHQDGHPDQGRFFXUV1RFORVLQJVLJQDOLVLVVXHGLIERWK VHQVRUV GR QRW LVVXH D FORVLQJ VLJQDO 7KLV FDQ RFFXU LI VHQVRU DQG VHQVRUKDYHIDLOHGLQDGDQJHURXVPRGHRULIERWKVHQVRUVKDYHIDLOHGLQ GDQJHURXVPRGHGXHWRDFRPPRQFDXVH
25 $1'
6\VWHPIDLOV 'DQJHURXV
25JDWH
$1'JDWH
69RSHQRQ GHPDQG
%DVLFHYHQW &RPPHQW
25
1RFORVLQJ VLJQDOIURP ERWKVHQVRUV
69GRHVQRW FORVHGHVSLWH FORVLQJVLJQDO
25
69IDLOV 'DQJHURXV
1RVLJQDOGXH WRFRPPRQ FDXVH
$1'
6GRHVQRW JLYHFORVLQJ VLJQDO
6GRHVQRW JLYHFORVLQJ VLJQDO
6IDLOV 'DQJHURXV
6IDLOV 'DQJHURXV
66IDLO 'DQJHURXV &RPPRQ FDXVH
)LJXUH)DXOWWUHHIRUGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHVIRUWKHH[DPSOH 7KHSUREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVV\VWHPIDLOXUHFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGIRUVPDOO FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUH SUREDELOLWLHV LQ D VLPLODU ZD\ WR WKDW XVHG IRU WKH UHOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPVE\ ' 3V\VWHP W = 36' && W + 36' W 36' W + 369' W
8VLQJWKHDERYHUHVXOWVWKHUHOLDELOLW\FDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV
(
' 6 5V\VWHP W = - 3V\VWHP W + 3V\VWHP W
)
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µ2.¶HYHU\FRPSRQHQWZRUNLQJSHUIHFW µLQWHUPHGLDWH¶RU µGHJUDGHG¶RQHRUPRUHFRPSRQHQWVKDYHIDLOHGEXWWKHV\VWHPLVRSHUDWLRQDOGXHWR UHGXQGDQF\ RU µIDLOHG¶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lLQDWLPHVWHSGWLVJLYHQE\ 3WUDQVLWLRQ = - H l GW
7KLVFDQEHDSSUR[LPDWHGIRUlGWE\ 3WUDQVLWLRQ = l GW
6\VWHP )DLOHG6DIH
l66 + l636 + l669 + l66 &&
l66 + l636 + l669
m UHSDLU
2.
,QWHUPHGLDWH 6RU6'
l'6 l'69
l'6 &&
l636 + l669
l'69
l'6 )DLOHG 'DQJHURXV 69'
' && 6
' 6
l
l
)DLOHG 'DQJHURXV 6' 6'
)DLOHG 'DQJHURXV 69' 6'
)DLOHG 'DQJHURXV 69' 6'
l'6
l'69
)LJXUH*UDSKLFDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKH0DUNRYPRGHOIRUWKHH[DPSOH 7KHVHWRIGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVIRUWKHH[DPSOHLV Ñ Ô Ô G3 (W ) 6 6 6 6 && 3 (W ) - l '6 && 3 (W ) Ô GW = - l 6 + l 36 + l 69 + l 6 Ô l '69 3 (W ) - l '6 3 (W ) + m UHSDLU 3 (W ) Ô Ô 6 6 6 6 && Ô G3 (W ) = - m 3 (W ) + UHSDLU 3 (W ) + l 6 + l 36 + l 69 + l 6 Ô GW Ô l 66 + l 636 + l 669 3 (W ) + l 636 + l 669 3 (W ) Ô ÔÔ G3 (W ) = - l 66 + l 636 + l 669 3 (W ) - l '6 3 (W ) - l '69 3 (W ) + l '6 3 (W ) Ò GW Ô Ô G3 (W ) ' && ' ' Ô GW = -l 6 3 (W ) - l 6 3 (W ) + l 69 3 (W ) Ô Ô G3 (W ) 6 6 ' ' && ' Ô GW = - l 36 + l 69 3 (W ) - l 69 3 (W ) + l 6 3 (W ) + l 6 3 (W ) Ô Ô G3 (W ) = -l ' 3 (W ) + l ' 3 (W ) + l ' 3 (W ) 6 69 6 Ô GW Ô Ô G3 (W ) = l ' 3 (W ) + l ' && 3 (W ) + l ' 3 (W ) 69 6 6 ÔÓ GW
(
)
(
( ( (
)
) )
(
)
)
7KHVWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQVDUHJLYHQE\WKHVWDWHWKHV\VWHPLVLQDWWLPHW $FRPPRQDVVXPSWLRQLVWKDWWKHV\VWHPLVZRUNLQJSHUIHFWO\DWWLPHW 7KLVLPSOLHVWKDWWKHSUREDELOLW\IRUWKHV\VWHPWREHLQWKH2.VWDWHLV OHDGLQJWRWWKHIROORZLQJVWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQV
Ñ 3 (W = ) = Ò Ó 3L (W = ) = IRU L :KHQWKHDERYHVHWRIGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVLVVROYHGWKHSUREDELOLW\IRU WKHV\VWHPWREHLQHDFKVWDWHLVNQRZQDVDIXQFWLRQRIWLPH 7KHSUREDELOLW\WKDWWKHV\VWHPLVLQDIDLOHGVDIHVLWXDWLRQFDQEHREWDLQHG E\VXPPLQJWKHSUREDELOLW\IRUDOOIDLOHGVDIHVWDWHV 6 (W ) = 3 (W ) 3V\VWHP
7KH SUREDELOLW\ WKDW WKH V\VWHP LV XQDEOH WR IXOILO LWV IXQFWLRQ FDQ EH REWDLQHGE\VXPPLQJWKHSUREDELOLW\IRUDOOIDLOHGGDQJHURXVVWDWHV ' (W ) = 3 (W ) + 3 (W ) + 3 (W ) + 3 (W ) 3V\VWHP
7KHUHOLDELOLW\FDQEHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKHDERYHUHVXOWVDV
(
)
6 ' (W ) + 3V\VWHP (W ) = 3 (W ) + 3 (W ) 5V\VWHP (W ) = - 3V\VWHP
&RPSDULQJDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHV 2QH ZD\ RI DQDO\VLQJ WKH DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV LV WR LQWHUSUHW WKHP DV D NLQG RI DQDO\VLVSURFHVVLQZKLFKLQSXWHJLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHV\VWHP LVFRQYHUWHGLQWR RXWSXWDFKLHYHGVDIHW\DFKLHYHGDYDLODELOLW\ E\PHDQVRIDFWLRQVSHUIRUPHGGXULQJ WKH DQDO\VLV SURFHVV 7KHVH DFWLRQV DUH SHUIRUPHG LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK D FHUWDLQ DQDO\VLVPHWKRGRORJ\VHHILJXUH
6\VWHP LQIRUPDWLRQ
$QDO\VLVSURFHVV
$FKLHYHG VDIHW\LQWHJULW\
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
)DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV
á
á
á
á
á
0DUNRYDQDO\VLV
+\EULGWHFKQLTXHV
6\VWHPIDLOXUHWREHDQDO\]HG &RPSRQHQWV )XQFWLRQDO
3DUWO\ &RPSOHWH
á
á
á
á
)DLOXUHPRGHVFRPSRQHQWVIXQFWLRQV
á
3RLQWYDOXHV
á á
á
'HVLJQUXOHVFKHFNOLVW
&RPSRQHQWIDLOXUHGDWD
á
á
6DIHW\WDUJHW
6WUXFWXUHRIV\VWHP
5HOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPV
3DUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLV
,QIRUPDWLRQQHHGHG IRUDQDO\VLVSURFHVV
)0($
([SHUWDQDO\VLV
$QDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH
4XDQWLWDWLYH
á
á á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
8QFHUWDLQGDWD
7HVWLQJSURFHGXUHV
á
á
á
5HSDLUSURFHGXUHV
á
á
á
á LQIRUPDWLRQRQV\VWHPOD\RXWLVQHFHVVDU\WRDVVHVVVDIHW\
á WKLVLQIRUPDWLRQLVQHHGHGRQO\LIWKHULVNSULRULW\QXPEHURUFULWLFDOLW\LVFDOFXODWHG
á SRZHUGHUDWLQJGHVLJQUXOHVPD\EHXVHG á RQO\WLPHDYHUDJHYDOXHVDUHQHHGHG á TXDOLWDWLYHDQGTXDQWLWDWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWHVWLQJDQGUHSDLUSROLFLHVUHTXLUHG
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
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRIDFWLRQVDQGWKHVHTXHQFHLQZKLFKWKH\DUHSHUIRUPHG GXULQJWKHDQDO\VLVSURFHVV
0DUNRYDQDO\VLV
)DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV
'HWHUPLQHV\VWHPIDLOXUHWREHDQDO\]HG 3HUIRUPIXQFWLRQDOV\VWHPDQDO\VLV
+\EULGWHFKQLTXHV
'HWHUPLQHVDIHW\WDUJHW
5HOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPV
$FWLRQVSHUIRUPHGGXULQJ DQDO\VLVSURFHVV
)0($
([SHUWDQDO\VLV
$QDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH
4XDQWLWDWLYH
3DUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLV
4XDOLWDWLYH
SDUWRIV\VWHP
FRPSOHWHV\VWHP
&KHFNGHVLJQUXOHVFKHFNOLVW
&UHDWHOLVWRIFRPSRQHQWVVXEV\VWHPV
'HWHUPLQHIDLOXUHPRGHVFRPSRQHQWVVXEV\VWHPV
'HWHUPLQHIDLOXUHHIIHFWFRPSRQHQWVVXEV\VWHPV
'HWHUPLQHIDLOXUHSUREDELOLW\FRPSRQHQWVVXEV\VWHPV
'HWHUPLQHULVNRIFRPSRQHQWVVXEV\VWHPVIDLOXUH
'HWHUPLQHSUREDELOLW\RIV\VWHPIDLOXUH
(YDOXDWHHIIHFWRIXQFHUWDLQSDUDPHWHUV )LQGGRPLQDQWSDUDPHWHUV
3UREDELOLW\RIV\VWHPIDLOXUHLVH[SUHVVHGRQRUGLQDOVFDOH 3RZHUGHUDWLQJGHVLJQUXOHVPD\EHXVHG )XQFWLRQDODQDO\VLVSHUIRUPHGRQO\RQWKHV\VWHPSDUWUHODWHGWRWKHDQDO\]HGV\VWHPIDLOXUH
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
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRIUHVXOWVREWDLQHGIURPDQDO\VLVSURFHVV
)0($
3DUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLV
5HOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPV
+\EULGWHFKQLTXHV
)DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV
0DUNRYDQDO\VLV
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
$QDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH 5HVXOWVREWDLQHGIURP DQDO\VLVSURFHVV 6DIHW\UDQNLQJFRPSDULVRQ
4XDQWLWDWLYH
([SHUWDQDO\VLV
4XDOLWDWLYH
3UREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUH
á
á
$YDLODELOLW\SUHGLFWLRQ
á
á
7ULSUDWHSUHGLFWLRQ á
8VHIXOGRFXPHQWDWLRQ
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á GLIIHUHQWPRGHOVIRUDYDLODELOLW\DQGSUREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUH
á RQO\ZRUNLQJSHUIHFWQRWGHJUDGHG
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
+\EULGWHFKQLTXHV
)DXOWWUHHDQDO\VLV
0DUNRYDQDO\VLV
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
á
&RPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHV
)0($
([SHUWDQDO\VLV
(IIHFWVRIUHGXQGDQF\
6\VWHPDWLFIDLOXUHV
á
á
(IIHFWVRIGLDJQRVWLFV
á
á
3DUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLV
á
$QDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH $VSHFWVFRYHUHGGXULQJ DQDO\VLVSURFHVV
4XDQWLWDWLYH 5HOLDELOLW\EORFNGLDJUDPV
4XDOLWDWLYH
(IIHFWVRIRQOLQHWHVWDQGUHSDLU (IIHFWVRIRIIOLQHWHVWDQGUHSDLU
á
á
7LPHVHTXHQFHGHSHQGHQWDVSHFWV (IIHFWVRIXQFHUWDLQGDWD
á RQO\WLPHDYHUDJH
á WLPHLQGHSHQGHQWDQGWLPHGHSHQGHQW
á RQO\OLPLWHG
á E\DGGLQJH[WUDEORFN
á E\DGGLQJH[WUDEORFNWLPHLQGHSHQGHQW
2EVHUYDWLRQVPDGHZKHQWDNLQJDFORVHUORRNDWWDEOHDUH 5HGXQGDQF\LVQRWWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWE\VRPHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHV)0($3DUWV FRXQWDQDO\VLV &RPPRQ FDXVH IDLOXUHV DUH QRW WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW E\ D QXPEHU RI DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV ,Q WKH RWKHU WHFKQLTXHV VSHFLDO FDUH PXVW EH WDNHQ ZKHQ FRPPRQ FDXVHIDLOXUHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG 6\VWHPDWLF RU IXQFWLRQDO IDLOXUHV DUH LQ JHQHUDO WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW YHU\ OLPLWHG HVSHFLDOO\LQWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVDOWKRXJKLWLVSRVVLEOHWRLQFOXGH WKLVW\SHRIIDLOXUHVLQVRPHRIWKHWHFKQLTXHV>%UR5RXE@ :KHQ WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW IDLOXUHV IRXQG E\ GLDJQRVWLFV DUH RIWHQ LQWHUSUHWHG DV VDIHIDLOXUHVEHFDXVHWKHRSHUDWRUFDQWDNHDFWLRQDFFRUGLQJO\7KLVDVVXPSWLRQ LVQRWDOZD\VFRUUHFWEHFDXVHWKHV\VWHPPLJKWQRWEHUHSDLUHGLPPHGLDWHO\VR RWKHUIDLOXUHVOHDGLQJWRDGDQJHURXVVLWXDWLRQFRXOGRFFXU (IIHFWV RI WHVWLQJ DQG UHSDLU DUH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW DV WLPHDYHUDJH YDOXH E\ DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV FDSDEOH RI KDQGOLQJ WKLV HIIHFW 2QO\ 0DUNRY DQDO\VLV FDQ KDQGOHUHSDLUSURFHGXUHV 7LPHDQGVHTXHQFHGHSHQGHQWHIIHFWVFDQ RQO\EHKDQGOHGE\0DUNRYDQDO\VLV DQGYHU\OLPLWHGE\VRFDOOHGG\QDPLFIDXOWWUHHV 1RQHRIWKHDYDLODEOHWHFKQLTXHVLVDEOHWRKDQGOHHIIHFWVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQXVHG PRGHOSDUDPHWHUV &RPSDULQJTXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVUHVXOWV 7KH SUHYLRXV SDUDJUDSKV VKRZHG WKDW GLIIHUHQW DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV FRYHU GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI V\VWHP EHKDYLRXU 5RXYUR\H HW DO >5RX@ KDYH VKRZQ E\ PHDQV RI D FDVH VWXG\ WKDW GLIIHUHQW TXDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV PD\ OHDG WR GLIIHUHQW UHVXOWV 7KH\ DSSOLHG D QXPEHU RI DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV RQ DQ H[DPSOH XVLQJ WKH VDPHVHWRIGDWDDQGFDOFXODWHGWKHDYHUDJHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG3)' DYJ 7KHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\ZHUHSDUWVFRXQWDQDO\VLVUHOLDELOLW\ EORFNGLDJUDPV5%' WZRVRFDOOHGK\EULGPHWKRGVEDVHGRQFRPELQDWLRQVRIEORFN GLDJUDPV DQG RWKHU DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV K\EULG ,(& DQG K\EULG 6,1 IDXOW WUHH DQDO\VLV)7$ 0DUNRYDQDO\VLVDQG(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV(0$ (QKDQFHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VLV ZKLFK FRQVLVWV RI 0DUNRY DQDO\VLV FRPELQHG ZLWK XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLVDQGVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVZLOOEHH[SODLQHGLQPRUHGHWDLOLQFKDSWHU 7KHFDOFXODWLRQUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQILJXUH 6RPHFRQFOXVLRQVIURPWKLVFDVHVWXG\DUH 'LIIHUHQW DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV PD\ OHDG WR GLIIHUHQW DYHUDJH SUREDELOLW\ RI IDLOXUH RQGHPDQG6,/ HYHQZKHQXVLQJWKHVDPHVHWRIGDWD &DOFXODWLRQ UHVXOWV VKRZ WKDW SDUWV FRXQW DQDO\VLV DQG UHOLDELOLW\ EORFN GLDJUDPV OHDGWRSHVVLPLVWLFUHVXOWV7KLVFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWRQO\RQHIDLOXUH PRGHLVSRVVLEOHLQWKHVHWHFKQLTXHVZKHQWKH\DUHDSSOLHGVWULFWO\DFFRUGLQJWR WKHGHILQLWLRQV
(
3)'DYJ
(
(0$
0DUNRY
)7$
+\EULG6,1
+\EULG,(&
3DUWVFRXQW
(
5%'
(
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
)DXOW7UHH $QDO\VLV 5HOLDELOLW\%ORFN 'LDJUDPV
$QDO\VLV &RPSOH[LW\
3DUWV&RXQW $QDO\VLV
)LJXUH5HODWLRQRIPRGHOOLQJSRZHUDQGDQDO\VLVFRPSOH[LW\IRUGLIIHUHQW TXDQWLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHV
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
&KDSWHU 3UDFWLFDOVDIHW\DQDO\VLVWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQV
,QWKHSUHYLRXVFKDSWHUDQXPEHURIDYDLODEOHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVIRUUHOLDELOLW\DQG VDIHW\ KDYH EHHQ GLVFXVVHG ,Q WKDW FKDSWHU WKH FRQFOXVLRQ ZDV PDGH WKDW 0DUNRY DQDO\VLV FRYHUV PRVW DVSHFWV EXW WKDW LW VWLOO ODFNV WKH FDSDELOLW\ RI KDQGOLQJ XQFHUWDLQGDWD 7KLV FKDSWHU LQYHVWLJDWHV LQ PRUH GHWDLO VRPH DVSHFWV RI PRGHOOLQJ RI V\VWHPV LQ JHQHUDOLQSDUDJUDSKDQGVDIHW\V\VWHPVLQ SDUWLFXODULQ SDUDJUDSK 2QH RI WKHIDFWVWRFRQVLGHUZKHQTXDQWLI\LQJVDIHW\LQWHJULW\RIVDIHW\V\VWHPVLVWKDWVRPH V\VWHPSURSHUWLHVFDQKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKHDFKLHYHGVDIHW\LQWHJULW\7KH UHVXOW LV WKDW WKH DVVRFLDWHG PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV FDQ LQIOXHQFH WKH FDOFXODWHG SUREDELOLW\ RI GDQJHURXV V\VWHP IDLOXUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ ,Q SDUDJUDSK WKLV LV GLVFXVVHG LQ PRUH GHWDLO $ FRPSOHWHO\ GLIIHUHQW SUREOHP RFFXUULQJ DIWHU WKH PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOLVFUHDWHGLVREWDLQLQJUHDOLVWLFFRUUHFWDQGYDOLGDWHGYDOXHV IRUWKHPRGHOSDUDPHWHUV$OWKRXJKDORWRIGDWDLVJDWKHUHGLQSUDFWLFHLWLVVWLOOYHU\ GLIILFXOWWRREWDLQWKHUHTXLUHGLQIRUPDWLRQIRUWKHPRGHOSDUDPHWHUV3DUDJUDSK ZLOOJLYHVRPHEDFNJURXQGVRQWKLVSUREOHP $OO WKHVH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV KDYH OHDG WR D VHW RI UHTXLUHPHQWV DSSOLFDEOH WR D EHWWHU DSSURDFKIRUTXDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\LQWHJULW\DQDO\VLV,QSDUDJUDSKWKHUHTXLUHPHQWV DUHIRUPXODWHG%DVHGRQVLPLODULWLHVZLWKRWKHUDUHDVLQWURGXFHGLQSDUDJUDSKD VROXWLRQ WR VDWLVI\ WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV FRQVLVWLQJ RI 0DUNRY DQDO\VLV FRPELQHG ZLWK XQFHUWDLQW\DQGVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVLVSURSRVHGLQSDUDJUDSK
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
8QFHUWDLQW\LQWUDQVODWLQJPRGHOUHVXOWVEDFNWRUHDOOLIH /DVWEXWQRWOHDVWLVWKHSUREOHPRIWUDQVODWLQJWKHFDOFXODWLRQUHVXOWVEDFNWRUHDOOLIH 7KLVWUDQVODWLRQFDQLQFUHDVHXQFHUWDLQW\EHFDXVHWKHUHVXOWVPXVWEHLQWHUSUHWHGIRU QRQH[SHUWV WR XQGHUVWDQG 7KLV UHVXOWV LQ DGGLWLRQDO VXEMHFWLYLW\ WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG ORVV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ QRW DOO GHWDLOV FDQ EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW LQ WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ %HFDXVHWKLVLVDFRPSOHWHO\GLIIHUHQWDUHDRIUHVHDUFKWKLVDVSHFWRI XQFHUWDLQW\ZLOOQRWEHGLVFXVVHGLQWKHUHPDLQGHURIWKLVWKHVLV
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
6DIH GHWHFWHG
6DIH
'DQJHURXV
6DIH XQGHWHFWHG
'DQJHURXV GHWHFWHG
'DQJHURXV XQGHWHFWHG
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
Êl Êl
VDIH IDLOXUH PRGH
6U =
DOO VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV IDLOXUH PRGH
DOO IDLOXUH PRGHV
Êl Êl
VDIH GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGH
& 6' =
DOO VDIH GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV VDIH IDLOXUH PRGH
DOO VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV
Êl Êl
GDQJHURXV GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGH
& '' =
DOO GDQJHURXV GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV GDQJHURXV IDLOXUH PRGH
DOO GDQJHURXV IDLOXUH PRGHV
7KLVUHVXOWVLQWKHIDLOXUHUDWHIRUGDQJHURXVXQGHWHFWHGIDLOXUHPRGHVDVDIXQFWLRQ RIWKHIDLOXUHUDWHIRUDOOIDLOXUHPRGHVDVJLYHQLQWKHHTXDWLRQEHORZ
(
)
l '8 = ( - 6U ) - & '' lDOO IDLOXUH PRGHV
1RWHWKDWVRPHWLPHVRWKHUGHILQLWLRQVIRUVDIHUDWLRDQGGLDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJHIDFWRUV DUH XVHG 7KHVH GHILQLWLRQV DUH EDVHG RQ WKH QXPEHU RI IDLOXUH PRGHV UDWKHU WKDQ WKHIDLOXUHUDWHVRIWKRVHIDLOXUHPRGHV 6U =
1 DOO VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV 1 DOO IDLOXUH PRGHV
& 6' =
1 DOO VDIH GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV 1 DOO VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV
1RWHWKDWDOWKRXJKDVDIHW\V\VWHPIDLOLQJVDIHOHDGVWRDVDIHVLWXDWLRQWKHUHVXOWLQJXQVWDEOH VLWXDWLRQRIVKXWWLQJGRZQDQGUHVWDUWLQJWKHVDIHJXDUGHGSURFHVVLVJHQHUDOO\FRQVLGHUHGOHVVVDIH WKDQDVWDEOHSURFHVV
& '' =
1 DOO GDQJHURXV GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV 1 DOO GDQJHURXV IDLOXUH PRGHV
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mV 'DQJHURXV XQGHWHFWHGIDLOXUHVDUHQRWIRXQGZLWKLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQWLPHSHULRGZKLFKLVFKRVHQ HTXDOWRWKHWLPHEHWZHHQSURRIWHVWV\HDU )XUWKHUWKHDVVXPSWLRQLVPDGHWKDW WKH V\VWHP VWDUWV DW WLPH LQ SHUIHFW FRQGLWLRQ UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH SUREDELOLW\ IRU WKH V\VWHPWREHLQWKH2.VWDWHHTXDOVDWWLPH7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJ0DUNRYPRGHO FDQEHVROYHGDQDO\WLFDOO\XVLQJWKHHLJHQYHFWRUHLJHQYDOXHDSSURDFKDVVKRZQLQ DSSHQGL[% l 6' + l68 + l''
)DLOHGVDIH
l = ( - KU 2.
m 6 = ( KU )
m6 l'8
SURRIWLPH = \HDU = KU )DLOHG GDQJHURXV
)LJXUH0DUNRYPRGHOIRUWKHRRV\VWHPXVHGWRGLVSOD\WKHHIIHFWRIWKH GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIIDLOXUHPRGHV 7KHUHVXOWRIWKLVFDOFXODWLRQVHHILJXUHDDQGE VKRZVWKDWERWKVDIHUDWLR DQG GLDJQRVWLF FRYHUDJH IDFWRU IRU GDQJHURXV IDLOXUHV LQIOXHQFH DFKLHYHG VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ )XUWKHUPRUH EHFDXVH RI WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQ WKH HIIHFW LV DPSOLILHG LI ERWK 6U DQG&''DUHFORVHWRWKHLUXSSHUOLPLWYDOXH
3UREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUH
''
&
6U
)LJXUHD7KHHIIHFWRIVDIHUDWLR6UDQGGLDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJHIDFWRU&''RQWKH SUREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHDWWLPH\HDUIRUWKHRRH[DPSOHV\VWHP ( 6U
3UREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUH
6U
(
6U 6U
( 6U
( 6U
(
(
''
'LDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJH&
)LJXUHE7KHHIIHFWRIVDIHUDWLR6UDQGGLDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJHIDFWRU&''RQWKH SUREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHDWWLPH\HDUIRUWKHRRH[DPSOHV\VWHP
2EWDLQLQJWKHVDIHUDWLRDQGWKHFRYHUDJHIDFWRUVFDQSURYHWREHGLIILFXOWVLQFHIRUDOO IDLOXUHPRGHVWKHIDLOXUHUDWHDQGIDLOXUHHIIHFWPXVWEHNQRZQ,IWKLVLVNQRZQLWFDQ EHFKHFNHGZKHWKHUWKHIDLOXUHLVGHWHFWHGE\WKHGLDJQRVWLFV*REOHLQWURGXFHGDQ H[WHQGHG YHUVLRQ RI WKH )0($ WKH VRFDOOHG )0('$ )DLOXUH 0RGH (IIHFWV DQG 'LDJQRVWLFV $QDO\VLV DSSURDFK WR DFFRPSOLVK WKLV >*REE *REF *RE@ 2QH RI WKH SUREOHPV XVLQJ WKLV DSSURDFK DV ZLWK DOO )0($ GHULYDWLYHV LV WKH FRPSOHWHQHVVRIWKHDQDO\VLVDUHDOOIDLOXUHPRGHVFRYHUHG ,Q WKH ,(& VWDQGDUG >,(&@ D GLIIHUHQW GHILQLWLRQ LV XVHG 7KLV VWDQGDUG GHILQHVWKHVRFDOOHGVDIHIDLOXUHIUDFWLRQ6))DV
Êl Êl
VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV
6)) =
DOO VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV
VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV
Êl Êl
GDQJHURXV GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV
+
DOO GDQJHURXV GHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV GDQJHURXV IDLOXUH PRGHV
+
DOO VDIH IDLOXUH PRGHV
DOO GDQJHURXV IDLOXUH PRGHV
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b IDFWRU7KLVUHVXOWVLQWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQV
l&RPPRQ &DXVH = bl
l 1RUPDO = ( - b )l
7KHHIIHFWRIFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHVZLOOEHGHPRQVWUDWHGXVLQJDVRFDOOHGRR RXWRI V\VWHP 7KLV LV D V\VWHP ZLWK FRPSRQHQWV DFWLQJ VXFK WKDW WKH VDIHW\ IXQFWLRQLVLQLWLDWHGLIRQHRUERWKFRPSRQHQWVLVVXHWKHLQLWLDWLQJVLJQDO7KLVPHDQV
WKDW WKH V\VWHP FDQ VWLOO IXOILO LWV IXQFWLRQ ZKHQ RQH FRPSRQHQW KDV IDLOHG GDQJHURXVO\ LH WKH FRPSRQHQW FDQQRW VHQG WKH LQLWLDWLQJ VLJQDO DQ\PRUH ,I RQO\ GDQJHURXV XQGHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PRGHV DUH UHJDUGHG WKH 0DUNRY PRGHO ZLOO ORRN OLNH ILJXUH'DQJHURXVXQGHWHFWHGIDLOXUHV HLWKHU GXHWR DFRPPRQFDXVH RU GXH WR QRUPDOIDLOXUHDUHQRWIRXQGZLWKLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQWLPHSHULRGZKLFKLVFKRVHQHTXDO WRWKHWLPHEHWZHHQIXQFWLRQDOSURRI WHVWV\HDU )XUWKHUWKHDVVXPSWLRQLVPDGH WKDWWKHV\VWHPVWDUWVDWWLPHLQSHUIHFWFRQGLWLRQUHVXOWLQJLQWKHSUREDELOLW\IRUWKH V\VWHPWREHLQWKH2.VWDWHHTXDOVDWWLPH7KH0DUNRYPRGHOPD\EHVROYHG DQDO\WLFDOO\ XVLQJ /DSODFH WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV DV VKRZQ LQ DSSHQGL[ & )LJXUH VKRZVWKHHIIHFWRIFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHVRQWKHRRH[DPSOHV\VWHP
( - b )l'8 2.
2QHIDLOHG
l'8 7ZRIDLOHG )DLOHG 'DQJHURXV
SURRIWLPH = \HDU = KU
bl'8 )LJXUH0DUNRYPRGHOIRUWKHRRV\VWHPXVHGWRVKRZWKHHIIHFWRI FRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHV (
3UREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUH
l'8 = ( - KU (
(
l'8 = ( - KU l'8 = ( - KU l'8 = ( - KU
(
(
l'8 = ( - KU
b
)LJXUH(IIHFWRIFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHVRQWKHSUREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHDW WLPHRQH\HDUIRUWKHRRH[DPSOHV\VWHP 2QH RI WKH SUREOHPV ZKHQ XVLQJ WKH EHWD IDFWRU PRGHO LV WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH YDOXHIRUb*HQHUDOO\LQOLWHUDWXUHRQO\UDQJHVDUHJLYHQ$WWHPSWVKDYHEHHQPDGH
WRREWDLQWKHEHWDIDFWRUE\XVLQJWDEOHVVHHHJ,(&>,(&@SDUW LQZKLFK EDVHGRQDQXPEHURITXHVWLRQVDVFRUHLVREWDLQHGZKLFKFDQEHWUDQVODWHGLQWRD YDOXHIRUWKHEHWDIDFWRU $FRPSOHWHO\GLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKIRUREWDLQLQJDYDOXHIRUWKHEHWDIDFWRULVWKHXVHRI WKHVWUHVVRUVXVFHSWLELOLW\FRQFHSWDVLQWURGXFHGE\%URPEDFKHU>%UR@DQGXVHGE\ *REOH >*REE@ 3UHUHTXLVLWH IRU XVLQJ WKLV DSSURDFK LV WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI VXIILFLHQW GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ ERWK RQ VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI WKH FRPSRQHQWV DQG RQ VWUHVVRUV DFWLQJ XSRQ WKHP ,Q WKLV DSSURDFK WKH EHWD IDFWRU LV REWDLQHG E\ VLPXODWLRQ RI WKH VXVFHSWLELOLW\ RI WKH UHGXQGDQW FRPSRQHQWV LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH VWUHVVRUV DFWLQJ XSRQ WKHP 2EWDLQLQJ WKH EHWD IDFWRU IURP UHDO OLIH GDWD SURYHV WR EH YHU\ GLIILFXOW HVSHFLDOO\ EHFDXVH FRPPRQ FDXVH IDLOXUHV DUH QRW DOZD\V LQWHUSUHWHG DV VXFK EXW HQWHU WKH ILHOG GDWD GDWDEDVH DV VLQJOH FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUHV 7KLV LV DOVR UHODWHG WR WKH ZD\ IDLOXUH LQIRUPDWLRQ LV JDWKHUHG LQ SUDFWLFH ZKLFK ZLOO EH GHVFULEHG LQ PRUH GHWDLO LQ SDUDJUDSK &RQFOXVLRQVPRGHOOLQJDVSHFWV 6XPPDULVLQJ WKH SUHYLRXV GLVFXVVLRQV FDQ EH FRQFOXGHG WKDW ZKHQ SHUIRUPLQJ D TXDQWLWDWLYH VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ DQDO\VLV WKH DVSHFWV GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV SDUDJUDSKV WKH HIIHFW RI GLIIHUHQW IDLOXUH PRGHV DQG WKH HIIHFW RI FRPPRQ FDXVH IDLOXUHV RQ DFKLHYHG VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ PXVW EH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW $OWKRXJK WKHVH DVSHFWV PD\ ORRN WULYLDO WKH\ DUH FHUWDLQO\ QRW 7KH\ SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH PRGHOV XVHG IRU VDIHW\ TXDQWLILFDWLRQ DQG WUHDWLQJ WKHP LQ D FRUUHFW PDQQHU LV QRW HDV\HVSHFLDOO\IRUPRUHFRPSOH[VDIHW\V\VWHPV 'DWDSDUDPHWHUDFFXUDF\ :KHQ WKH PRGHO KDV EHHQ FUHDWHG WKH PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV KDYH WR EH HVWDEOLVKHG 7KLVSDUDJUDSKH[SODLQVLQPRUHGHWDLOWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIFRPPRQSDUDPHWHUVIRU VDIHW\V\VWHPPRGHOVDQGKRZWKH\UHODWHWRDFWXDOUHDOOLIHXVDJHGDWD 6RPHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRISDUDPHWHUVLQVDIHW\TXDQWLILFDWLRQ ,Q VDIHW\ TXDQWLILFDWLRQ D QXPEHU RI SDUDPHWHUV SOD\ D UROH 7KLV SDUDJUDSK JLYHV VRPHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVHSDUDPHWHUV )DLOXUH UDWH l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±
'LDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJHIDFWRUV&6'DQG&''9DOXHVDUHEHWZHHQDQG*HQHUDOO\ YDOXHVLQWKHKLJKUDQJHDUHJLYHQIRUHOHFWURQLF VDIHW\V\VWHPFRPSRQHQWV ± 6RPH UHVHUYDWLRQV FDQ EH PDGH WR FODLPV RI D FRYHUDJH IDFWRU RI ZKLFKPHDQVWKDWDOOGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHVDUHIRXQGE\GLDJQRVWLFV &RPPRQ FDXVH b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±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µDVJRRGDVQHZ¶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
7DEOH&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIVRPHSDUDPHWHUVLQVDIHW\TXDQWLILFDWLRQ 9DULDEOH
5DQJH
7\SLFDOYDOXH
)DLOXUHUDWH l 6DIHUDWLR6U 'LDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJHIDFWRUV &6'&''
KU
KU
&RPPRQFDXVHbIDFWRU
KRXUVGD\V
KUGD\
PRQWKV\HDUV
\HDU
\HDUV
\HDUV
5HSDLUWLPH XQVFKHGXOHGPDLQWHQDQFH 3HULRGLFDOIXQFWLRQDOSURRI WHVWWLPHVFKHGXOHG PDLQWHQDQFH )XQFWLRQDOSURRI WHVW FRYHUDJHIDFWRU 7LPHWRFRPSOHWHRYHUKDXO
&RPPHQWV 2IWHQODUJHUDQJH *HQHUDOO\XQNQRZQ,VOLPLWYDOXH DFKLHYDEOH" 2IWHQODUJHUDQJHGLIILFXOWWR HVWLPDWH 'HSHQGLQJRQVSHFLILFDWLRQVLQ 6HUYLFH/HYHO$JUHHPHQW6/$ 2IWHQIL[HGVFKHGXOHGWLPHV *HQHUDOO\XQNQRZQ,VOLPLWYDOXH DFKLHYDEOH" 2IWHQUHTXLUHGE\OHJLVODWLRQ
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
'HYHORSPHQW
'HYHORSPHQW
0RGLILFDWLRQ 3XUFKDVLQJ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
'HYHORSPHQW
3XUFKDVLQJ 3XUFKDVLQJ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ
2SHUDWLRQ
5HSDLU
2SHUDWLRQ
6DIHW\V\VWHP LQWHJUDWRU
6XEV\VWHP PDQXIDFWXUHUV
'HFRPPLVVLRQLQJ
6DIHW\V\VWHPXVHU SURFHVVLQGXVWU\
)LJXUH'LIIHUHQWSDUWLHVLQYROYHGGXULQJVDIHW\V\VWHPOLIHF\FOH
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
RIHTXLSPHQW5HJDUGHGDVEHLQJPXFKPRUHLPSRUWDQWDUHWKHFRVWVRISURGXFWLRQ ORVVPDLQWHQDQFHDQGVSDUHSDUWV7KLVOHDGVWRWKHIDFWWKDWIDLOXUHLQIRUPDWLRQKDV WR EH FRQVWUXFWHG DUWLILFLDOO\ IURP GDWD JDWKHUHG IRU RWKHU SXUSRVHV 7KLV UHVXOWV IRU H[DPSOHLQLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWLVµSROOXWHG¶E\HIIHFWVRIPDLQWHQDQFH$QH[DPSOHLVD V\VWHP LV UHSODFHGPRGLILHG EHIRUH UHOLDEOH GDWD DUH FROOHFWHG HJ VRIWZDUH XSJUDGH $QRWKHUUHVXOWLVWKDWFRPPXQLFDWLRQRIVDIHW\UHODWHGDVSHFWVWRWKHRWKHU SDUWQHUV LQYROYHG LQ WKH VDIHW\ V\VWHP OLIHF\FOH EHFRPHV GLIILFXOW EHFDXVH LW LV DOUHDG\ GLIILFXOW WR JDWKHU WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH FRPSDQ\ RI WKH XVHU SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ LWVHOI (53GDWDEDVH
3XUFKDVLQJ
'HVLJQ (QJLQHHULQJ
6DIHW\SUHGLFWLRQ
3URGXFWLRQ
6DIHW\V\VWHPXVHU SURFHVVLQGXVWU\
6DOHV
)LQDQFH
/RJLVWLF
3URILWFDOFXODWLRQ
0DLQWHQDQFH
3HUVRQQHO
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
*HQHULF FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUHGDWD 0,/
6XEV\VWHP PDQXIDFWXUHU
6XEV\VWHP PDQXIDFWXUHUL
6HUYLFH FODLPV 6XEV\VWHP GDWD EHKDYLRXU
6DIHW\V\VWHP LQWHJUDWRU
6XEV\VWHP GDWD EHKDYLRXU 6HUYLFH FODLPV
6\VWHP OD\RXW EHKDYLRXU
6SHFLILF FRPSRQHQW IDLOXUHGDWD
6XEV\VWHP GDWD EHKDYLRXU
6\VWHP OD\RXW EHKDYLRXU 6HUYLFH FODLPV
6XEV\VWHP IDLOXUHGDWD 2SHUDWLQJSURFHGXUHV 2SHUDWLQJFRQGLWLRQV 5HTXLUHPHQWV
6XEV\VWHP GDWD EHKDYLRXU &RPSRQHQWVSHFLILF SURYHQLQXVHGDWD
4XDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\ DVVHVVPHQW
6DIHW\V\VWHPXVHU SURFHVVLQGXVWU\
6XEV\VWHP IDLOXUHGDWD
*HQHULF VXEV\VWHP ILHOGIDLOXUH GDWD 25('$
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
0DUNRY PRGHOV DV H[SODLQHG E\ 5RXYUR\H LQ >5RXE@ 7ZR GLIIHUHQW DVVXPSWLRQV FDQEHPDGHIRUWKHFRYHUDJHRILPSHUIHFW WHVWV
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
7KHILUVWDVVXPSWLRQLVWKDWGXULQJDWHVWDIUDFWLRQRIDOOIDLOXUHVDVLQGLFDWHGE\WKH IXQFWLRQDO SURRI WHVW FRYHUDJH IDFWRU LV IRXQG 7KLV OHDGV WR UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH SUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGSUREDELOLW\RIGDQJHURXVV\VWHPIDLOXUH DVFDQEH VHHQLQILJXUH
7LPH
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
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
7LPH
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
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
7LPHKRXUV
)LJXUH&RPPRQSUDFWLFHDSSURDFKIRUREWDLQLQJIXQFWLRQDOSURRI WHVWLQWHUYDO 7KLVPHWKRGLVYHU\VLPSOHEXWVRPHUHPDUNVFDQEHPDGHHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQORRNLQJ DW DVSHFWV RI XQFHUWDLQW\ ,I XQFHUWDLQW\ LV WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH JUDSK ZRXOG ORRN OLNHLQGLFDWHGLQILJXUH
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
7LPHKRXUV
)LJXUH'DQJHUVLQRSWLPLVLQJIXQFWLRQDOSURRI WHVWLQWHUYDOXVLQJFRPPRQ SUDFWLFHDSSURDFK ,Q WKLV JUDSK WKH UHVXOWLQJ UDQJH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ LV LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH GDVKHG FXUYHV :KHQ WDNLQJ D FORVHU ORRN DW WKLV JUDSK WZR LPSRUWDQW FRQFOXVLRQV FDQ EH PDGH 7KH ILUVW FRQFOXVLRQ LV WKDW WKH WLPH REWDLQHG IRU WKH IXQFWLRQDO SURRI WHVW LQWHUYDO FDQ EH XQGHU RU RYHUHVWLPDWHG FRQVLGHUDEO\ ±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
VSUHDG RU ERWK )RU WKLV UHDVRQ RIWHQ D UDQJH RU EDQGZLGWK LV XVHG IRU PRGHO SDUDPHWHUYDOXHVLQVWHDGRIDIL[HGSRLQWYDOXH ORQJWHUPVPDOOSUREDELOLW\HIIHFWVSOD\DQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQWKHPRGHOFDOFXODWLRQV DQGPXVWEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW RPLWWLQJ WR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ SDUDPHWHUV PD\ OHDG WR FRPSOHWHO\ LQYDOLGFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWDFKLHYHGVDIHW\LQWHJULW\DQGRWKHUGHULYHGTXDQWLWDWLYH FRQFOXVLRQV
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bIDFWRUDUHQRWZHOONQRZQ)RUSDUDPHWHU YDOXHV REWDLQHG IURP GDWDEDVHV ILOOHG ZLWK ILHOG GDWD OLNH 25('$ >2UH@ WKH SUREOHP RIWHQ LV WKDW PRVW WLPHV RQO\ D YHU\ ORZ QXPEHU RI UHOHYDQW UHFRUGV LV DYDLODEOH$VHFRQGDU\SUREOHPLVUHODWHGWRWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKRVHUHFRUGV $ELOLW\WRKDQGOHSDUDPHWHUVZLWKYHU\GLIIHUHQWVWDWLVWLFDODVSHFWV 7KH UDQJH RI XQFHUWDLQW\ RI SDUDPHWHUV FDQ YDU\ IURP ]HUR RU YHU\ VPDOO IRU ZHOO NQRZQ FRPSRQHQW SDUDPHWHUV WR YHU\ ODUJH GHFDGHV IRU SDUDPHWHUV RI QHZ RU XQNQRZQFRPSRQHQWV
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
DQG V\VWHPV QRW FRPSO\LQJ FDOOHG IDLOV 7KH VWDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLW\ IRU FRPSRQHQW SDUDPHWHU[,LVWKHQFRPSXWHGDV 0L =
+
×
S SDVV ([L ) - S IDLO ([L ) G[L
-
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
0RQWH&DUOR PHWKRG
0DUNRYPRGHO 8QFHUWDLQ SDUDPHWHUV
6DIHW\LQWHJULW\LQFOXGLQJXQFHUWDLQW\
8QFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLV
6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV
'RPLQDQW SDUDPHWHUV
6WDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLW\ PHWKRG
)LJXUH*HQHUDORXWOLQHRI(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV(0$
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
Ê 3 (W )
VWDWH L DOO VWDWHV ZKHUH V\VWHP LV IXQFWLRQLQJ
7KHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG3)'DVIXQFWLRQRIWLPH FDQEHFDOFXODWHGDV WKH VXP RI WKH SUREDELOLWLHV IRU WKH V\VWHP WR EH LQ VWDWHV ZKHUH LW FDQQRW IXOILO LWV IXQFWLRQGXHWRGDQJHURXVIDLOXUHV7KLVFDQEHH[SUHVVHGLQDQHTXDWLRQDV
3)'(W ) =
Ê 3 (W )
VWDWH L DOO VWDWHV ZKHUH V\VWHP LV IDLOHG GDQJHURXV
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
$W\SLFDOFDOFXODWLRQUHVXOWIRUWKHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHLQGHPDQGLVVKRZQLQILJXUH
7LPH
)LJXUH7\SLFDOUHVXOWRI0DUNRYDQDO\VLVSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGDV IXQFWLRQRIWLPH 7KHDYHUDJHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGIRUDJLYHQWLPHLQWHUYDO7DVUHTXLUHG IRU6,/FDOFXODWLRQVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH,(&VWDQGDUG>,(&@FDQEHFDOFXODWHG DV
3)'DYJ =
7
3)'(W ) GW 7 ×
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
HVSHFLDOO\VDIHUDWLRVDQGGLDJQRVWLFRUWHVWFRYHUDJHIDFWRUVWKDWPXVWDOZD\VKDYH DYDOXHLQWKHLQWHUYDO>@
WK
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
SHUFHQWLOH PHGLDQ
WKSHUFHQWLOH
7LPH
)LJXUH([DPSOHRIUHVXOWVRI(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLVSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUH RQGHPDQGDVIXQFWLRQRIWLPHLQFOXGLQJXQFHUWDLQW\
1XPEHURIVDPSOHV
1XPEHURIVDPSOHV
6,/ 6,/ 6,/ 6,/ 6,/ 6,/! $YHUDJHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
6,/ 6,/ 6,/ 6,/ 6,/ 6,/! $YHUDJHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
)LJXUH([DPSOHVRIUHVXOWVRI(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLVKLVWRJUDPVRI DYHUDJHSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGH[SUHVVHGLQWHUPVRI6,/
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
3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU 3DUDPHWHU
6WDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
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
6,/
6,/ 6,/ Stat. sensitivity per SIL
6,/
6,/!
)LJXUH([DPSOHUHVXOWVRIWKHSURWRW\SHFDOFXODWLRQ IRUVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLWLHVSHU6,/
&RQFOXVLRQV ,Q WKLV FKDSWHU LPSRUWDQW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI PRGHOOLQJ RI VDIHW\ V\VWHPV KDYH EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG 7KHPDMRUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIRXQGDUH $QXPEHURILPSRUWDQWHIIHFWVWKHHIIHFWRIGLIIHUHQWIDLOXUHPRGHVDQGWKHHIIHFW RI FRPPRQ FDXVH IDLOXUHV RQ DFKLHYHG VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ DQG WKH DVVRFLDWHG SDUDPHWHUV OLNH VDIH IDLOXUH IUDFWLRQ GLDJQRVWLF FRYHUDJH IDFWRU DQG FRPPRQ FDXVHEHWDIDFWRUPXVWEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW7KHVHSDUDPHWHUVDOWKRXJKWKH\ PD\ORRNWULYLDOPXVWEHWUHDWHGLQDFDUHIXODQGFRUUHFWZD\ZKHQSHUIRUPLQJD TXDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\LQWHJULW\DVVHVVPHQW :KHQ D PRGHO KDV EHHQ FUHDWHG H[FHSW IURP WKH FRQVLGHUDWLRQV DQG DSSUR[LPDWLRQV PDGH LQ FUHDWLQJ DQG VROYLQJ WKH PRGHO WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH PRGHOSDUDPHWHUVEHFRPHVLPSRUWDQW,QWKLVFKDSWHUDQXPEHURIFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV KDYH EHHQ GLVFXVVHG ,PSRUWDQW FKDUDFWHULVWLFV IRXQG LQFOXGH WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D ODUJH GLIIHUHQFH LQ WLPHVFDOHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH PRGHO SDUDPHWHUV VRPHSDUDPHWHUVIRUH[DPSOHGLDJQRVWLFFRYHUDJH WHQGWRJRWRWKHLUXSSHU OLPLWYDOXHVZKLFKFDQKDYHDPDMRUHIIHFWRQDFKLHYHGVDIHW\LQWHJULW\
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
VDPSOLQJFRQFHSWVVLPLODUWRWKH0RQWH&DUORDQDO\VLVOLNH/DWLQK\SHUFXEHVDPSOLQJ ,W LV FHUWDLQO\ FRQVLGHUHG ZRUWKZKLOH WR LQYHVWLJDWH ZKHWKHU WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV DV VWDWHG LQ SDUDJUDSK FDQ EH PHW XVLQJ RQH RI WKRVH DOWHUQDWLYHV SUHIHUDEO\ LQ D FRPSXWDWLRQDOOHVVH[SHQVLYHZD\
&KDSWHU ,QGXVWULDODSSOLFDWLRQ
,QWKHSUHYLRXVFKDSWHU(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV(0$ KDVEHHQLQWURGXFHG7KLV FKDSWHU VKRZV E\ PHDQV RI D FDVH VWXG\ WKDW (0$ LV D YHU\ XVHIXO PHWKRG WR HYDOXDWH WKH VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ RI D VDIHW\ V\VWHP DV XVHG LQ LQGXVWU\ 7KH FKDSWHU VKRZVDOOVWHSVPDGHGXULQJWKHDQDO\VLVDQGHQGVZLWKVRPHFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWWKH XVDELOLW\ RI (0$ DQG RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU LPSURYHPHQW 7KH DQDO\VLV GHVFULEHG LQ WKLV FKDSWHULVSDUWRIDSURMHFWGHVFULEHGLQPRUHGHWDLOLQ>%UR@
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
(PHUJHQF\ VKXWRIIYDOYH :HOOKHDG
5HOLHIYDOYH DQGIODUH )XUWKHU SURFHVVLQJ IDFLOLWLHV &RQWUROYDOYHV &KRNHYDOYH
3UHVVXUHUDWLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQEUHDN
)LJXUH%DVLFOD\RXWRIFRQYHQWLRQDOKLJKSUHVVXUHSURWHFWLRQ
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
:HOOKHDG
(PHUJHQF\ VKXWRIIYDOYH 4XLFNFORVLQJ VKXWRIIYDOYHV )XUWKHU SURFHVVLQJ IDFLOLWLHV &RQWUROYDOYHV &KRNHYDOYH
3UHVVXUHUDWLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQEUHDN
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
RII YDOYHV DQG VLQFH RIWHQ WKLV W\SH RI YHU\ ODUJH YDOYHV LV RQO\ DYDLODEOH DV RQH VLQJOH W\SH IURP RQH VLQJOH PDQXIDFWXUHU WKHUH LV D SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW ERWK OD\HUV IDLO GXHWRDVLPLODUFDXVHIRUH[DPSOHFRUURVLRQRIWKHYDOYHV
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
6ROHQRLG YDOYHV
36
4XLFNFORVLQJ VKXWRIIYDOYHV
37
3UHVVXUHUDWLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQEUHDN
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
'RXEOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ 7KH GRXEOH FRQILJXUDWLRQ VHH ILJXUH XVHV WKH VDPH W\SH RI FRPSRQHQWV DV WKRVH XVHG LQ WKH VLQJOH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RQO\ WKH VHQVRUV DQG WKH ORJLF VROYHUV DUH XVHGLQDUHGXQGDQWFRQILJXUDWLRQLQVXFKDZD\WKDWHDFKORJLFVROYHUFDQFORVHERWK TXLFN FORVLQJ VKXWRII YDOYHV 7KH UHGXQGDQW VHQVRU JURXSV KDYH VHSDUDWH SURFHVV FRQQHFWLRQVPDQLIROGV ,QWKLVFRQILJXUDWLRQWKHVHQVRUJURXSVDQGORJLFVROYHUVDUH GXSOLFDWHGUHGXQGDQF\ WRLPSURYHVDIHW\LQWHJULW\ ,QVWUXPHQWDLU RR /2*,& RR /2*,&
6ROHQRLG YDOYHV
36
4XLFNFORVLQJ VKXWRIIYDOYHV
37
36
37
3UHVVXUHUDWLQJ VSHFLILFDWLRQEUHDN
)LJXUH'RXEOH+,336FRQILJXUDWLRQ
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
3RZHU VXSSO\
3 5 2 & ( 6 6
3UHVVXUH VZLWFK
3UR[LPLW\ HOHFWURQLFV
,QSXW PRGXOH
2XWSXW PRGXOH
6ROHQRLG YDOYH
2XWSXW PRGXOH
6ROHQRLG YDOYH
RR ORJLF 3UHVVXUH WUDQVPLWWHU
7ULS HOHFWURQLFV
,QSXW PRGXOH
9DOYH
9DOYH
3 5 2 & ( 6 6
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
WHVWLQJDIWHUWKHUHSDLUDFWLRQ6LQFHWKHGHWHFWHGIDLOXUHLVNQRZQWKLVIDLOXUH ZLOO EH UHSDLUHG 7KH XQGHWHFWHG IDLOXUH PD\ RU PD\ QRW EH UHSDLUHG GHSHQGHQW RQ ZKHWKHU WKH V\VWHP LV WHVWHG DIWHU WKH UHSDLU RU QRW DQG ZKHWKHUGXULQJWKHWHVWWKHIDLOXUHLVIRXQGDQGUHSDLUHG )DLOHG6DIH
2SHUDWLRQDO
)DLOHG 'DQJHURXV
,QWHUPHGLDWH )DLOHG'DQJHURXV
8QGHWHFWHGIDLOXUH
'HWHFWHGIDLOXUH
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
'RXEOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ 7KH EORFN GLDJUDP RI WKH GRXEOH FRQILJXUDWLRQ FDQ EH IRXQG LQ ILJXUH ,W VKRZV WKDWWKHQXPEHURIFRPSRQHQWVKDVLQFUHDVHGVLJQLILFDQWO\,WVKRZVDOVRWKHZD\LQ ZKLFKWKHWZREUDQFKHVDUHFRQQHFWHGWRHQDEOHHDFKEUDQFKWRFRQWUROERWKTXLFN FORVLQJVKXWRIIYDOYHV,QWKLVFRQILJXUDWLRQERWKTXLFNFORVLQJVKXWRIIYDOYHVZLOOEH FORVHGZKHQRQHRUPRUHVHQVRUVGHWHFWWKHSUHVVXUHEHFRPLQJWRRKLJK 3RZHU VXSSO\
3UHVVXUH VZLWFK
3 5 2 & ( 6 6
3UR[LPLW\ HOHFWURQLFV
,QSXW PRGXOH
2XWSXW PRGXOH
6ROHQRLG YDOYH
RR ORJLF 3UHVVXUH WUDQVPLWWHU
7ULS HOHFWURQLFV
,QSXW PRGXOH
2XWSXW PRGXOH
6ROHQRLG YDOYH
3UHVVXUH VZLWFK
3UR[LPLW\ HOHFWURQLFV
,QSXW PRGXOH
2XWSXW PRGXOH
6ROHQRLG YDOYH
2XWSXW PRGXOH
6ROHQRLG YDOYH
RR ORJLF 3UHVVXUH WUDQVPLWWHU
7ULS HOHFWURQLFV
,QSXW PRGXOH
9DOYH
9DOYH
3 5 2 & ( 6 6
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
,QGX ,QGG
)DLOHG6DIH
,QGG
,QGX ,QGX /RJLFGG
/RJLFGG
)DLOHG6DIH
2SHUDWLRQDO
,QGX ,QGG ,QGG
9DOYHGG
,QGX
)DLOHG 'DQJHURXV
2XWGX 2WKHURXWGG
2XWGG
2SHUDWLRQDO
2XWGX
2SHUDWLRQDO
2XWGX 9DOYHGG )DLOHG 'DQJHURXV
,QGX /RJLFGG
,QWHUPHGLDWH )DLOHG'DQJHURXV
)DLOHG6DIH
8QGHWHFWHGIDLOXUH
)DLOHG 'DQJHURXV
'HWHFWHGIDLOXUH
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
6LQJOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ 7KHFDOFXODWLRQUHVXOWVIRUWKHVLQJOHFRQILJXUDWLRQDUHVKRZQLQILJXUHDQGILJXUH
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
7LPHKRXUV
)LJXUHWKWKDQGWKSHUFHQWLOHRISUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGDV IXQFWLRQRIWLPHIRUWKHVLQJOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ IDLOXUHUDWHV\VWHPDWLFIDLOXUHV EHWDIDFWRUFRPPRQFDXVH LQSXW FRYHUDJHIDFWRUSHULRGLFDOWHVWLQJHYHU\PRQWKV VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRSUHVVXUHVZLWFK FRYHUDJHIDFWRUGDQJHURXVGHWHFWHGSUHVVXUHVZLWFK FRYHUDJHIDFWRUGDQJHURXVGHWHFWHGSUHVVXUHWUDQVPLWWHU VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRLQSXWERDUG EHWDIDFWRUFRPPRQFDXVH YDOYH UHSDLUUDWHRXWRIVDIHIDLOXUHVLWXDWLRQ VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRSUR[LPLW\ERDUG FRYHUDJHIDFWRUGDQJHURXVGHWHFWHGYDOYH VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRIXQFWLRQDOIDLOXUHV FRYHUDJHIDFWRUGDQJHURXVGHWHFWHGSUR[LPLW\VZLWFK VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRSUR[LPLW\ERDUG IDLOXUHUDWHVROHQRLGYDOYH
6WDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
)LJXUH%DUJUDSKRIVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLWLHVVKRZLQJWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQW SDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHVLQJOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ
'RXEOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ 7KH FDOFXODWLRQ UHVXOWV IRU WKH GRXEOH FRQILJXUDWLRQ DUH VKRZQ LQ ILJXUH DQG ILJXUH
3UREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG
7LPHKRXUV
)LJXUHWKWKDQGWKSHUFHQWLOHRISUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGDV IXQFWLRQRIWLPHIRUWKHGRXEOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ IDLOXUHUDWHV\VWHPDWLFIDLOXUHV FRYHUDJHIDFWRUSHULRGLFDOWHVWLQJHYHU\\HDU VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRRXWSXWERDUG UHSDLUUDWHYDOYH VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRV\VWHPDWLFIDLOXUHV FRYHUDJHIDFWRUGDQJHURXVGHWHFWHGWULSDPSOLILHU VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRLQSXWERDUG VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRYDOYH VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRSUR[LPLW\ERDUG IDLOXUHUDWHVROHQRLGYDOYH UHSDLUUDWHRWKHUFRPSRQHQWV VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRORJLF IDLOXUHUDWHLQSXWERDUG VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRSUHVVXUHWUDQVPLWWHU VDIHIDLOXUHUDWLRWULSDPSOLILHU
6WDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
)LJXUH%DUJUDSKRIVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLWLHVVKRZLQJWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQW SDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHGRXEOHFRQILJXUDWLRQ
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¶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¶V MRE 7KLV SUREOHP FRXOG EH UHVROYHG E\ GHYHORSLQJDFRPSXWHULVHGWRROLQVXFKDZD\WKDWWKHXVHUGRHVQRWQHHGWRFUHDWH WKH 0DUNRY PRGHOV DQ\PRUH 7KH QH[W FKDSWHU GHVFULEHV WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D SURWRW\SHRIVXFKDWRRO
&KDSWHU 7RROVQHHGHGLQDQLQGXVWULDOHQYLURQPHQW
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
,QWURGXFWLRQ $V VWDWHG EHIRUH WKH PDMRU SUREOHP SUHYHQWLQJ WKH ZLGHVSUHDG XVH RI (QKDQFHG 0DUNRYDQDO\VLVLVWKHIDFWWKDWWKHPRGHOVKDYHWREHFUHDWHGE\KDQG7KLVSDUWRI WKH DQDO\VLV LV DQ H[SHUW¶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
3URFHVV ,QVWU'LDJUDP
$XWRPDWLF WUDQVODWLRQ
5HOLDELOLW\ %ORFN'LDJUDP
&DOFXODWLRQ
0DUNRY0RGHO
(YDOXDWLRQ 0DUNRY0RGHO
)LJXUH'LIIHUHQWSKDVHVLQWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\LQWHJULW\HYDOXDWLRQSURFHVV DGDSWHGIURP+RXWHUPDQV>+RXD@ ,QRUGHUIRUDWRROWREHXVHGE\DQRQH[SHUWLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRILQGDZD\WRWUDQVODWH WKH V\VWHP OD\RXW LQWR D V\VWHP GHVFULSWLRQ WKDW FDQ EH XVHG WR JHQHUDWH 0DUNRY PRGHOVDQGWKDWFDQEHRSHUDWHGE\DQRQH[SHUWVHHILJXUH
7UDQVODWLRQ E\QRQH[SHUW
3URFHVV ,QVWU'LDJUDP
$XWRPDWLF WUDQVODWLRQ
6\VWHP 'HVFULSWLRQ
&DOFXODWLRQ
6\VWHP0RGHO
(YDOXDWLRQ 6\VWHP0RGHO
)LJXUH'LIIHUHQWSKDVHVLQWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\HYDOXDWLRQSURFHVVXVLQJDWRRO XVDEOHE\QRQH[SHUWV 7KHQH[WSDUDJUDSKLQYHVWLJDWHVWKHOD\RXWRIPRVWVDIHW\V\VWHPVLQRUGHUWRGHILQH VXFKDV\VWHPGHVFULSWLRQ
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
FRQILJXUDWLRQVIRUERWKVHQVRUDQGDFWXDWRUSDUWDVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHLQGXVWU\FDQ EH FRYHUHG XVLQJ D OLPLWHG QXPEHU RI 0DUNRY PRGHOV RQ JURXS OHYHO $OVR WKH QXPEHURIFRQILJXUDWLRQVIRUORJLFVROYHUVLVOLPLWHG7KLVSURYLGHVWKHRSSRUWXQLW\IRU GHYHORSPHQWRIDWRROWKDWFDQEHXVHGWRDQDO\VHPRVWEXWQRWDOO SUDFWLFDOO\XVHG VDIHW\ V\VWHP FRQILJXUDWLRQV ,Q WKLV WRRO WKH UHVXOWV DW JURXS DQG SDUW OHYHO FDQ EH REWDLQHG E\ XVLQJ D OLPLWHG QXPEHU RI 0DUNRY PRGHOV $IWHU WKDW WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKHVHPRGHOVFDQEHFRPELQHGLQWRUHVXOWVDWV\VWHPOHYHO
*HQHUDOSULQFLSOHVRIDWRRO $VLQGLFDWHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVSDUDJUDSKLWLVSRVVLEOHWRXVHWKHPRGXODULW\RIVDIHW\ V\VWHPVWRGHYHORSDQDQDO\VLVWRRO9DQGHQ%OLHNSUHVHQWHGWKHJHQHUDOOD\RXWRI VXFKDWRROVHHILJXUH >%OLD@ 6\VWHP FRQILJXUDWLRQ )DLOXUHGDWD
0RGXOHORRNXS
0RGXOHV DYDLODEOH"
\HV
6\VWHPPRGHO JHQHUDWRU
&DOFXODWLRQ HQJLQH
6\VWHP FDOFXODWLRQ UHVXOWV
QR
6WDQGDUG PRGXOHV
$GGQHZ PRGXOH
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
3)' SDUW = 3)' JURXS 3)' JURXS L 3)' JURXS P 3)' SDUW =
Ê 3)'
L P
JURXS L
Ê (3)'
L < M < N P
+ (- )
P -
-
Ê (3)'
L < M P
JURXS L
(3)'
JURXS L
)
¬ 3)' JURXS M +
)
¬ 3)' JURXS M ¬ 3)' JURXS N + L
JURXS
¬ 3)' JURXS ¬ L ¬ 3)' JURXS P
)
)RULQGHSHQGHQWHYHQWVWKLVFDQEHUHZULWWHQDV 3)' SDUW =
Ê 3)'
L P
JURXS L
Ê (3)'
L < M < N P
+ (- )
P -
-
JURXS L
(3)'
Ê (3)'
L < M P
JURXS L
)
3)' JURXS M +
)
3)' JURXS M 3)' JURXS N + L
JURXS
3)' JURXS L 3)' JURXS P
)
$ZRUVWFDVHHVWLPDWHIRUVXIILFLHQWO\VPDOO SUREDELOLWLHVRIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQG IRUWKHJURXSVZKLFKJHQHUDOO\LVWKHFDVHIRUVDIHW\V\VWHPV FDQQRZEHREWDLQHG E\ 3)' SDUW =
Ê 3)'
L P
JURXS L
,IWKHFRQGLWLRQRIVXIILFLHQWO\VPDOOSUREDELOLWLHVRIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGIRUWKHJURXSV LVQRWPHWKLJKHURUGHUHVWLPDWHVFDQEHXVHG 7KH VDPH DSSURDFK JLYHQ DERYH IRU WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI SUREDELOLWLHV IURP JURXS WR SDUWOHYHOFDQDOVREHXVHGIRUWKHFRPELQDWLRQRISUREDELOLWLHVIURPSDUWWRV\VWHP OHYHO7KLVOHDGVIRUVXIILFLHQWO\VPDOOJURXSDQGSDUWSUREDELOLWLHV WRWKHZRUVWFDVH HVWLPDWHRQV\VWHPOHYHOJLYHQE\ 3)'V\VWHP =
Ê 3)'
DOO SDUWV
SDUW
=
Ë Û Ì Ü 3)' Ê JURXS Ì Ü DOO SDUWV Í DOO JURXSV LQ SDUW Ý
Ê
3URWRW\SHWRRO 8VLQJ WKH FRQFHSWV GLVFXVVHG DERYH YDQ GHQ %OLHN YDQ 2V KDYH GHYHORSHG D SURWRW\SH WRRO >%OLE 2V@ 7KH WRRO LV LQWHQGHG DV D SURWRW\SH IRU D PDUNHWLQJ LQVWUXPHQW 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW LW LV PDLQO\ GHYHORSHG IRU HYDOXDWLQJ DQG FRPSDULQJ YDULRXVV\VWHPOD\RXWDOWHUQDWLYHV 5HTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKHSURWRW\SHWRRO 7KHUHTXLUHPHQWVWKDWWKHWRROPXVWFRPSO\ZLWKDUH>%OLE@ 7KHWRROPXVWEHDEOHWRDQDO\VHPRVWVDIHW\V\VWHPVDVWKH\DUHLPSOHPHQWHGLQ LQGXVWULDOFRQILJXUDWLRQV 7KH WRRO PXVW EH XVDEOH IRU QRQH[SHUWV RU RWKHU XVHUV ZLWK OLPLWHG EDFNJURXQG NQRZOHGJHRI0DUNRYDQDO\VLVIRUH[DPSOHVDOHVSHUVRQV 7KHWRROPXVWEHDEOHWRKDQGOHERWKSRLQWDQGLQWHUYDOXQFHUWDLQ HVWLPDWHVIRU SDUDPHWHUV 7KH WRRO PXVW LQGLFDWH LPSRUWDQW SDUDPHWHUV LQ RUGHU WR IDFLOLWDWH VDIHW\ V\VWHP LPSURYHPHQWGXULQJWKHV\VWHPGHVLJQSKDVH 7KHUHVXOWVREWDLQHGE\XVLQJWKHWRROVKRXOGRIFRXUVHEHYDOLGDQGVXIILFLHQWO\ DFFXUDWH 7KH WRRO VKRXOG EH HDV\ WR XVH 7KLV UHTXLUHPHQW LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH WRRO VKRXOG KDYHDQHDV\SUHIHUDEO\JUDSKLFDOXVHULQWHUIDFH %DVLFOD\RXWSURWRW\SHWRRO 7KH EDVLF OD\RXW RI WKH WRRO DV GHYHORSHG E\ YDQ GHQ %OLHN DQG YDQ 2V >%OLE 2V@ FDQ EH VHHQ LQ ILJXUH 2Q WKH OHIWKDQG VLGH WKH LQSXW IURP WKH XVHU LV LQGLFDWHG7KHXVHUKDVWRVXSSO\DQXPEHURIJHQHUDOVHWWLQJVIRUH[DPSOHSURMHFW QXPEHUDQGRWKHUDGPLQLVWUDWLYHGDWDDQGWKHQXPEHURI0RQWH&DUORVDPSOHVWREH XVHGLQWKHFDOFXODWLRQV %HVLGHVWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQDOVRV\VWHPOD\RXWGDWDQXPEHU RIJURXSVSHU SDUWYRWLQJ SHUJURXS DQG IDLOXUH GDWD SHU FRPSRQHQW LQ WKH JURXSV PXVWEHVXSSOLHG$OOLQSXWDQGRXWSXWLVSHUIRUPHGXVLQJDJUDSKLFDOXVHULQWHUIDFH :KHQ DOO UHTXLUHG LQIRUPDWLRQ LV VXSSOLHG WKH WRRO FDQ ORRNXS WKH UHTXLUHG PRGXOH JURXS PRGHOVVROYHWKHPRGXOHPRGHOVDQGFDOFXODWHWKHSDUWDQGRYHUDOOV\VWHP UHVXOWV 7KH UHVXOWV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ JUDSKV VLPLODU WR WKRVH JLYHQ LQ WKH SUHYLRXV FKDSWHUWKWKDQGWKSHUFHQWLOHFXUYHVIRUSUREDELOLW\RIIDLOXUHRQGHPDQGDQG D EDU JUDSK RI WKH VWDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLWLHV 7KH UHVXOWV FDQ EH REWDLQHG DW V\VWHP OHYHOIRUWKHORJLFVROYHUSDUWRQO\DQGIRUWKHVHQVRUDQGDFWXDWRUSDUWDWJURXSOHYHO LQGLFDWHGDVPRGXOHOHYHOLQILJXUH
0RGXOH FRQILJXUDWLRQ
0RGXOHIDLOXUH GDWD
*HQHUDO VHWWLQJV
6\VWHP FRQILJXUDWLRQ
0RGXOH 0DUNRYPRGHO ORRNXS
0RGXOH 0DUNRY FDOFXODWLRQ HQJLQH
0RGXOH 0DUNRY PRGHOV
0RGXOH FDOFXODWLRQ UHVXOWV
6\VWHPPRGHO JHQHUDWRU
6\VWHP FDOFXODWLRQ HQJLQH
3DUW FDOFXODWLRQ UHVXOWV
6\VWHP FDOFXODWLRQ UHVXOWV
)LJXUH%DVLFOD\RXWRIWKHSURWRW\SHWRRO
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
&KDSWHU &RQFOXVLRQVDQGUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
7KLV FKDSWHU VXPPDULVHV WKH PDLQ UHVXOWV DQG GLVFXVVLRQV DQG JLYHV UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKERWKRQ(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLVDVZHOODV RQDPRUHJHQHUDOOHYHO
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
7KHDERYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVOHDGWRWKHILUVWFRQFOXVLRQ 4XDQWLILFDWLRQRIVDIHW\LQWHJULW\DVUHTXLUHGE\PRGHUQVWDQGDUGVOLNHWKH,(& >,(&@ RU ,6$6 >,6$D@ GRHV QRW SUHGLFW WKH DFKLHYHG VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\RIWKHDFWXDOV\VWHPV ,Q WKH VWDQGDUGV ,(& >,(&@ RU ,6$6 >,6$D@ QR UHTXLUHPHQWV EXW RQO\UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVDUHJLYHQRQKRZWRFRQGXFWWKHVDIHW\LQWHJULW\DQDO\VLV$V VKRZQ LQ WKLV WKHVLV WKH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG LI VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ LV SUHGLFWHG PD\ GLIIHU GHSHQGLQJRQWKHDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHXVHG6LQFHLQWKHVWDQGDUGVQRUHTXLUHPHQWV DUHPDGHRQWKHW\SHRIDQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHWREHXVHGFRPSDULVRQRIWKHREWDLQHG DQDO\VLV UHVXOWV PD\ EH LPSRVVLEOH (YHQ LI WKH VDPH DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH LV XVHG GLIIHUHQW DVVXPSWLRQV LQ WKH XQGHUO\LQJ PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHO PD\ OHDG WR GLIIHUHQW UHVXOWV $Q H[DPSOH LV WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RQ GDQJHURXV EXW GHWHFWHG IDLOXUHV WKDW VRPHWLPHV DUH WUHDWHG DV EHLQJ VDIH IDLOXUHV EXW WKDW VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG GDQJHURXV XQWLO UHSDLUHG 7KLV IUHHGRP RI FKRLFH FDQ EH PLV XVHG IRU FRPPHUFLDO PRWLYHV 7KLVOHDGVWRWKHVHFRQGFRQFOXVLRQ 6DIHW\LQWHJULW\TXDQWLILFDWLRQDVSHUIRUPHGDFFRUGLQJWR,(&>,(&@RU ,66>,6$D@LVQRWXQDPELJXRXV $V VKRZQ LQ FKDSWHU WKH 0DUNRY DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH WKDW LV XVHG DV D EDVLV IRU (QKDQFHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VLV FRYHUV PRVW DVSHFWV FRQVLGHUHG LPSRUWDQW IRU VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ FDOFXODWLRQV :LWK WKH DGGLWLRQ RI 0RQWH &DUOR DQDO\VLV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ IRU XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVLVLQFRUSRUDWHG$GGLWLRQDOO\WKHVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\UHVXOWVFDQ EH XVHG WR ILQG LPSURYHPHQW RSSRUWXQLWLHV $V VKRZQ LQ WKLV WKHVLV LW LV SRVVLEOH WR DSSO\ (QKDQFHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VLV LQ DFWXDO LQGXVWULDO V\VWHPV 7KH SURWRW\SH WRRO VKRZVWKDWLWLVSRVVLEOHWRGHYHORSDWRROIRUDQLQGXVWULDOHQJLQHHULQJHQYLURQPHQW EDVHGRQ(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV 7KHUHIRUHWKHWKLUGFRQFOXVLRQLV (QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLVDVSURSRVHGLQWKLVWKHVLVLVDJRRGFDQGLGDWHIRU DQ XQDPELJXRXV VDIHW\ LQWHJULW\ TXDQWLILFDWLRQ WHFKQLTXH IRU WKH WHFKQLFDO DVSHFWVRIVDIHW\V\VWHPV
)XWXUHHQKDQFHPHQWVIRU(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV 7KH QH[W SDUDJUDSK H[SODLQV D QXPEHU RI SRVVLEOH HQKDQFHPHQWV DQG UHVHDUFK WRSLFVFORVHO\UHODWHGWR(QKDQFHG0DUNRY$QDO\VLV 8VDJHRIRWKHUXQFHUWDLQW\DQGVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\WHFKQLTXHV $V DOUHDG\ LQGLFDWHG EHIRUH (QKDQFHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VLV LV RQO\ RQH VROXWLRQ IRU WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV JLYHQ 0RUH JRRG VROXWLRQV PLJKW EH SRVVLEOH )RU DW OHDVW WZR EDVLF SDUWV LQ (QKDQFHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VLV XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXH DQG VHQVLWLYLW\
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
$SSHQGL[$ 6ROYLQJ0DUNRYPRGHOV
,QOLWHUDWXUH>*RED.XP(OV@GLIIHUHQWZD\VWRVROYH0DUNRYPRGHOVFDQEH IRXQG7KHQH[WSDUDJUDSKVGHVFULEHWKHJHQHUDODSSHDUDQFHRI0DUNRYPRGHOVDQG JLYHDVKRUWLQWURGXFWLRQLQWKHPHWKRGVIRUVROYLQJWKHP
$0DUNRYPRGHOVJHQHUDODSSHDUDQFH ,QJHQHUDOD0DUNRYPRGHOFRQVLVWVRIDVHWRIFRXSOHGGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVIRUWKH VWDWHSUREDELOLWLHV3LDQGDVWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQIRUWKHVWDWHSUREDELOLWLHV3LDWWLPHW ,IWKHDVVXPSWLRQLVPDGHWKDWWKHPRGHOKDV1VWDWHVDQGWKDWWKHWLPHFRQVWDQW WUDQVLWLRQ UDWH IURP VWDWH L WR VWDWH M LV JLYHQ E\ $LM WKH VHW RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV ZRXOGORRNOLNH G3 = $ 3 + $ 3 + L + $1 31 GW G3 = $ 3 + $ 3 + L + $ 1 31 GW M M M G31 = $1 3 + $1 3 + L + $11 31 GW
$
,QDVKRUWHUQRWDWLRQWKLVFDQEHZULWWHQDV G3 = $3 GW
$
:KHUH3LVDYHFWRUFRQWDLQLQJDOOWKHVWDWHSUREDELOLWLHVDQG$LVDPDWUL[FRQWDLQLQJ DOOWKHWUDQVLWLRQUDWHV7KHHOHPHQWVRIPDWUL[$DUHGHILQHGE\ $LM = WUDQVLWLRQUDWHIURPVWDWHLWRVWDWH MIRUL M $ LL = -Ê $LM
$
L M
7KHVWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQVFDQEHZULWWHQDV 3 (W = ) = 3
3 (W = ) = 3 M
$
M
31 (W = ) = 31
,QVKRUWWKLVFDQEHZULWWHQDV 3 (W = ) = 3
$
2EYLRXVO\DWDOOWLPHVLQFOXGLQJW WKHSUREDELOLW\RIWKHV\VWHPEHLQJLQDQ\RIWKH V\VWHPVWDWHVLV 1
Ê 3 (W = 7 ) = L =
L
$
IRUDOO7
7KH HIIHFW RI WKLV ODVW HTXDWLRQ LV WKDW WKH VHW RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV LV QRW LQGHSHQGHQW7DNLQJRQO\1RIWKHGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVDQGFRPELQLQJWKHVHZLWK WKH HTXDWLRQ WKDW WKH VXP RI DOO SUREDELOLWLHV HTXDOV FDQ JHQHUDOO\ VROYH WKLV SUREOHP7KLVUHVXOWVLQWKHVHWRIHTXDWLRQVWREHVROYHG G3 = $ 3 + $ 3 + L + $1 31 GW G3 = $ 3 + $ 3 + L + $ 1 31 GW M M M
$
G31 - = $( 1 -) 3 + $( 1 -) 3 + L + $( 1 -)1 31 GW = 3 + 3 + L + 31
$)LQGOLPLWLQJVWDWHSUREDELOLWLHV 7KHOLPLWLQJVWDWHSUREDELOLWLHVWKHVWDWHSUREDELOLWLHVDWDQLQILQLWHWLPH FDQEHIRXQG E\ XVLQJ WKH DSSURDFK WKDW DW LQILQLWH WLPH WKH FKDQJHV LQ SUREDELOLWLHV GHULYDWLYHV DUH7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKHOLPLWLQJVWDWHSUREDELOLWLHVFDQEHIRXQGE\VROYLQJWKHVHW RIOLQHDUHTXDWLRQV $
$3 =
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
7ZR RU PRUH DEVRUELQJ VWDWHV H[LVW 7KH V\VWHP ZLOO DOZD\V HQG XS LQ RQH RI WKHVHDEVRUELQJVWDWHVVRWKHVXPRIWKHSUREDELOLWLHVRIEHLQJLQHLWKHURIWKHVH DEVRUELQJVWDWHVDWLQILQLWHWLPHLV7KHSUREDELOLW\RIEHLQJLQDQ\RWKHUVWDWHDW LQILQLWH WLPH LV 7KH VXEGLYLVLRQ RI WKH SUREDELOLWLHV RI EHLQJ LQ RQH RI WKH DEVRUELQJVWDWHVGHSHQGVRQWKHWUDQVLWLRQUDWHV
$6ROYLQJ0DUNRYPRGHOVXVLQJ/DSODFHWUDQVIRUPV 2QHZD\WRVROYHWKH0DUNRYPRGHOVLVXVLQJ/DSODFHWUDQVIRUPV,QWKLVDSSURDFK WKH VHW RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV LV WUDQVIRUPHG LQWR D VHW RI OLQHDU HTXDWLRQV IRU WKH /DSODFH WUDQVIRUPV RI WKH VWDWH SUREDELOLWLHV 7KLV VHW RI OLQHDU HTXDWLRQV FDQ EH VROYHG DIWHU ZKLFK WKH /DSODFH WUDQVIRUPV FDQ EH WUDQVIRUPHG EDFN LQWR WKH WLPH GRPDLQ :ULWLQJWKH/DSODFHWUDQVIRUPRIVWDWHSUREDELOLW\3,DVS,
SL (V ) = × H - VW 3L (W )GW
$
7KH VHW RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV DIWHU DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH /DSODFH WUDQVIRUP FDQ EH ZULWWHQDV
VS - 3 = $ S + $ S + L + $1 S 1 M
M
M
$
1
VS 1 - 3 = $1 S + $1 S + L + $11 S 1 RULQVKRUW VS - 3 = $S
$
RUXVLQJ,IRUWKHLGHQWLW\PDWUL[
($ - ,V )S = -3
$
7KLV OLQHDU VHW RI HTXDWLRQV FDQ EH VROYHG 7KH UHVXOW LV WKDW HDFK S, FDQ EH H[SUHVVHGDVDNQRZQIXQFWLRQI,RIV SL (V ) = I L (V )
$
7UDQVIRUPLQJEDFNWRWKHWLPHGRPDLQDVVXPLQJWKDWWKHLQYHUVH/DSODFHWUDQVIRUP RIIXQFWLRQI,V LVJLYHQE\),W UHVXOWVLQWKHVROXWLRQIRUDOOWKHSUREDELOLWLHV 3L (W ) = )L (W )
$
$QH[DPSOHRIWKHXVHRIWKLVDSSURDFKFDQEHIRXQGLQDSSHQGL[&
$6ROYLQJ0DUNRYPRGHOVXVLQJHLJHQYDOXHVDQGHLJHQYHFWRUV $GLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKLVXVLQJWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWDVROXWLRQFDQEHWULHGWKDWORRNV OLNH
3(W ) = 4HJ W
$
,QVHUWLQJWKLVLQWRWKHVHWRIGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVOHDGVWR J 4HJ W = $4HJ W
$
RU $
$4 = J 4
7KLV LV DQ HLJHQYDOXH SUREOHP ZKHUH q LV DQ HLJHQYDOXH DQG 4 WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ HLJHQYHFWRU ,I WKH HLJHQYHFWRUV DUH LQGHSHQGHQW WKH JHQHUDO VROXWLRQ FDQ EH JLYHQ E\ 3 (W ) = F4HJW + F 4 HJW + L + F 1 4 1 HJ1 W
$
ZKHUH 4, LV WKH HLJHQYHFWRU FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ZLWK HLJHQYDOXH qL DQG FL DUH FRQVWDQWV WKDWFDQEHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJWKHVWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQ 3 (W = ) = 3
$
$QH[DPSOHRIWKHXVHRIWKLVDSSURDFKFDQEHIRXQGLQDSSHQGL[%
$6ROYLQJ0DUNRYPRGHOVQXPHULFDOO\XVLQJPDWUL[PXOWLSOLFDWLRQ $GLIIHUHQWZD\RIVROYLQJWKH0DUNRYPRGHOLVE\XVLQJDQRQDQDO\WLFDOQXPHULFDO DSSURDFK ,Q WKLV DSSURDFK WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV DUH DSSUR[LPDWHG XVLQJ D GLVFUHWHWLPHVWHSDW 3(W + DW ) - 3(W ) = $3(W ) DW
$
6ROYLQJIRU3WDW WKLVFDQEHUHZULWWHQDV
3(W + DW ) = ($DW + , )3(W )
$
ZKHUH,LVWKHLGHQWLW\PDWUL[ 6ROYLQJVWDUWLQJIURPW QRZRQO\UHTXLUHVPDWUL[PXOWLSOLFDWLRQ
3 (DW ) = ($DW + , )3(W = ) = ($DW + , )3
3 (DW ) = ($DW + , )3 (DW ) = ($DW + , ) 3 M M M
$
3 (PDW ) = ($DW + , )3((P - )DW ) = ($DW + , ) 3 P
7KH WLPH VWHS DW KDV WR EH FKRVHQ VXIILFLHQWO\ VPDOO LQ RUGHU WR SUHYHQW QXPHULFDO HUURUVGXHWRLQVWDELOLW\SUREOHPV$VDUXOHRIWKXPEWKHWLPHVWHSVKRXOGEHFKRVHQ DV D IUDFWLRQ RI WKH VPDOOHVW UHOHYDQW WLPH LQ WKH VHW RI HTXDWLRQV ,Q WKH V\VWHPV GLVFXVVHGLQWKLVWKHVLVWKLVUHOHYDQWWLPHLVJHQHUDOO\WKHWLPHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHSDLU RIGHWHFWHGIDLOXUHVW\SLFDOO\WRKRXUV $QRWKHUQXPHULFDOSUREOHPWKDWPLJKWDULVHLVWKHIDFWWKDWLQWKHWUDQVLWLRQPDWUL[WZR YHU\GLIIHUHQWWLPHVFDOHVSOD\DQLPSRUWDQWUROHRQHWLPHVFDOHLVWKDWFRXSOHGWRWKH
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l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
$SSHQGL[% $QDO\WLFDOVROXWLRQ0DUNRYPRGHOXVHGWRGHPRQVWUDWHWKH HIIHFWRIVDIHIDLOXUHIUDFWLRQDQGGLDJQRVWLFV
7KH0DUNRYPRGHOXVHGLQWKHGHPRQVWUDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWRIVDIHIDLOXUHIUDFWLRQDQG GLDJQRVWLFVDVJLYHQLQILJXUHLV l 6' + l68 + l''
)DLOHGVDIH
l = ( - KU 2.
m 6 = ( KU )
m6 l'8
SURRIWLPH = \HDU = KU )DLOHG GDQJHURXV
)LJXUH%0DUNRYPRGHOIRUWKHRRV\VWHPXVHGIRUGHPRQVWUDWLQJWKHHIIHFWRI WKHVDIHIDLOXUHIUDFWLRQDQGGLDJQRVWLFV ,QWKLVPRGHOWKHIDLOXUHUDWHVIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWIDLOXUHW\SHVDVH[SODLQHGLQSDUDJUDSK DUHJLYHQE\ l6' = 6U& 6' l
(
)
l68 = 6U - & 6' l l '' = ( - 6U )& '' l
(
%
)
l '8 = ( - 6U ) - & '' l
7KLVPRGHOFDQEHGHVFULEHGE\DVHWRIFRXSOHGGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVDQGDVWDUWLQJ FRQGLWLRQDVJLYHQEHORZ7KHGLIIHUHQWVWDWHVDUHLQGLFDWHGE\DVXEVFULSWIRUWKH 2.VWDWHDVXEVFULSWIRUIDLOHGVDIHVWDWHDQGDVXEVFULSWIRUWKHIDLOHGGDQJHURXV VWDWH
G3 = - l6' + l68 + l'' + l'8 3 + m 6 3 = -l3 + m 6 3 GW G3 = l6' + l68 + l'' 3 - m 6 3 = l6 3 - m 6 3 GW G3 = l'8 3 GW 3 (W = ) = 3 (W = ) = 3 (W = ) =
(
)
(
)
%
$V DQ LOOXVWUDWLRQ WKLV VHW RI HTXDWLRQV ZLOO EH VROYHG XVLQJ WKH HLJHQYDOXHHLJHQYHFWRU DSSURDFK 6LQFH WKHVH HTXDWLRQV DUH GHSHQGHQW EHFDXVH 3W 3W 3W RQO\WKHILUVWDQGWKHVHFRQGGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQDUHXVHG 6XEVWLWXWLRQWKHSRVVLEOHJHQHUDOVROXWLRQLQWKRVHWZRHTXDWLRQVVHHDSSHQGL[$
Ë 3 (W ) Û Ë 4 Û J W ÌÌ ÜÜ = ÌÌ ÜÜH Í 3 (W )Ý Í 4 Ý
%
OHDGVWRWKHIROORZLQJVHWRIHTXDWLRQV
Ë- l Ì 6 Ìl Í
X6 Û Ü4 = J 4 - m 6 ÜÝ
%
7KLVLVDQHLJHQYDOXHSUREOHP7KHHLJHQYDOXHVFDQEHIRXQGE\VROYLQJ
m6 = - m6 -J
- l -J l6
%
7KLVOHDGVWRWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFHTXDWLRQ
(
)
(
)
%
)
%
J + m 6 + l J + m 6 l - l6 = 7KHVROXWLRQVDUH
J =
(
) (m
- m6 + l
6
+ l - m 6 l'8
8VLQJWKHVHVROXWLRQVWZRHLJHQYHFWRUVFDQEHIRXQG
Ë m6 Û Ë m6 Û Ì Ü Ì Ü 4 = Ì Ü DQG 4 = ÌJ + l Ü J + l Í Ý Í Ý
%
7KHJHQHUDOVROXWLRQIRU3DQG3FDQQRZEHZULWWHQDV
Ë m 6 Û JW Ë m 6 Û J W Ë 3 (W ) Û Ì Ü Ì Ü ÌÌ ÜÜ = F Ì ÜH + F Ì J + l Ü H ( ) 3 W J + l Í Ý Í Ý Í Ý
%
7KHFRQVWDQWVFDQGFFDQEHIRXQGE\DSSO\LQJWKHVWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGVROYLQJ WKHUHVXOWLQJHTXDWLRQV
7KHUHVXOWLQJYDOXHVIRUWKHFRQVWDQWVDUH
F = -
J + l J +l DQG F = 6 m (J - J ) m (J - J )
%
6
)LQDOO\3FDQEHFDOFXODWHGIURP 3 (W ) = - 3 (W ) - 3 (W )
%
ZKLFKDIWHUVRPHUHDUUDQJLQJUHVXOWVLQ 3 (W ) = +
l '8 + J JW l '8 + J JW H H J - J J - J
%
$SSHQGL[& $QDO\WLFDOVROXWLRQ0DUNRYPRGHOXVHGWRGHPRQVWUDWHWKH HIIHFWRIFRPPRQFDXVHIDLOXUHV
7KH 0DUNRY PRGHO XVHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKH HIIHFW RI FRPPRQ FDXVH IDLOXUHV DV JLYHQLQILJXUHLV
( - b )l'8 2.
l'8
2QHIDLOHG
7ZRIDLOHG )DLOHG 'DQJHURXV
SURRIWLPH = \HDU = KU
bl'8 )LJXUH&0DUNRYPRGHOIRUWKHRRV\VWHPXVHGIRUVKRZLQJWKHHIIHFWFRPPRQ FDXVHIDLOXUHV 7KLVPRGHOFDQEHGHVFULEHGE\DVHWRIFRXSOHGGLIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQVDQGDVWDUWLQJ FRQGLWLRQDVJLYHQEHORZ7KHGLIIHUHQWVWDWHVDUHLQGLFDWHGE\DVXEVFULSWIRUWKH 2.VWDWHDVXEVFULSWIRUWKHVWDWHZLWKRQHFRPSRQHQWIDLOHGDQGDVXEVFULSWIRU WKHVWDWHZLWKWZRFRPSRQHQWVIDLOHGIDLOHGGDQJHURXVVWDWH G3 = - ( - b )l'8 - bl'8 3 GW G3 = ( - b )l'8 3 - l'8 3 GW G3 = bl'8 3 + l'8 3 GW 3 (W = ) = 3 (W = ) = 3 (W = ) =
&
1RWH WKDW WKLV PRGHO LV RQO\ GHYHORSHG IRU GDQJHURXV XQGHWHFWHG IDLOXUHV 2WKHU IDLOXUHPRGHVDUHQRWWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW $V DQ LOOXVWUDWLRQ WKLV PRGHO ZLOO EH VROYHG DQDO\WLFDOO\ XVLQJ /DSODFH WUDQVIRUPV 8VLQJ WKHVH WUDQVIRUPV WKH VHW RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV LV WUDQVIRUPHG WR D VHW RI OLQHDUHTXDWLRQV,QWKHVHHTXDWLRQVWKH/DSODFHWUDQVIRUPRI3,W LVGHQRWHGE\S,V VS - = - ( - b )l'8 - bl'8 S VS = ( - b )l'8 S - l'8 S
&
VS = bl'8 S + l'8 S
)URPWKHILUVWHTXDWLRQSFDQEHVROYHG S =
V + ( - b )l'8 + bl'8
&
8VLQJWKLVUHVXOWLQWKHVHFRQGHTXDWLRQDQGUHDUUDQJLQJJLYHVWKHVROXWLRQIRUS ( - b )l'8 S = V + ( - b )l'8 + bl'8 V + l'8
(
)(
&
)
8VLQJSDUWLDOIUDFWLRQUHGXFWLRQWKLVFDQEHUHZULWWHQDV S =
- + '8 '8 V + ( - b )l + bl V + l'8
(
) (
&
)
7UDQVIRUPLQJWKH/DSODFHWUDQVIRUPVSDQGSEDFNLQWRWKHWLPHGRPDLQXVLQJWKH VWDUWLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQGXVLQJWKHIDFWWKDW3W 3W 3W UHVXOWVLQ 3 (W ) = H (-(- b )l
'8
) = H - l ( - b )W - bl )W + H - l W = -H - l - bl )W - H - l W = + H - l
- bl '8 W
3 (W ) = -H (- (- b )l
'8
3 (W ) = + H (- (- b )l
'8
'8
'8
'8
'8
'8
'8
( - b )W
'8
+ H - l
( - b )W
'8
- H - l
W
'8
& W
$SSHQGL[' 7UDQVODWLQJGDWDLQWRFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDORJQRUPDO GLVWULEXWLRQ
,QSUDFWLFHGDWDDUHDOPRVWQHYHUJLYHQLQWKHIRUPRIFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDGLVWULEXWLRQ WKDW FDQ EH XVHG IRU 0RQWH &DUOR DQDO\VLV 'DWD DUH RIWHQ JLYHQ LQ WKH IRUP RI D WULSOHW PLQLPXP W\SLFDO PD[LPXP DV GXSOH PLQLPXP PD[LPXP RU HYHQ DV D SRLQW HVWLPDWH 7KLV SDUDJUDSK H[SODLQV LQ EULHI KRZ WR WUDQVODWH WKHVH GDWD LQWR FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDORJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ6HHDOVR>/HZ.XP@ 7KHORJQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQLVJLYHQE\/HZLV>/HZ@E\ Ë Î Ë \ ÛÞ Û H[SÌ - ÏOQÌÌ ÜÜß Ü Ì V Ü p V\ Ð Í \ Ýà Ý Í
I (\) =
'
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
7)
×
7 )
Ë H[SÌ - Ì V p V\ Í
Î Ë \ ÛÞ ÏOQÌ 7 Üß Ð Í Ýà
Û ÜG\ Ü Ý
'
8VLQJWKHVXEVWLWXWLRQ ]=
Ë \Û OQÌ Ü V Í 7 Ý
'
DQGWKHGHILQLWLRQRIWKHVRFDOOHGHUURUIXQFWLRQ>.UH@
HUI ([ ) =
H[S - Z GZ × p
(
)
'
DQGVRPHPDWKHPDWLFVLWFDQEHVKRZQWKDW Û Ë 3 = HUI Ì OQ () )Ü Ý Í V
'
1RZVFDQEHFDOFXODWHGZLWKWKHKHOSRIWKHLQYHUVHIXQFWLRQRIWKHHUURUIXQFWLRQ
V=
OQ () ) LQYHUI (3 )
'
7KH HUURU IXQFWLRQ DQG LWV LQYHUVH IXQFWLRQ DUH DYDLODEOH LQ WDEOHV DQG LQ QXPHULFDO PDWKHPDWLFVVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHVOLNH0DW/DE ,QFDVHWKDWRQO\DPLQLPXPPDQGDPD[LPXP0DUHJLYHQDVLPLODUDSSURDFKFDQ EHIROORZHGXVLQJ
7 = P0
DQG
)=
0 P
'
$SSHQGL[( &DOFXODWLQJVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLWLHV
7KH PHWKRG GHVFULEHG LQ FKDSWHU XVHV WKH FRQFHSW RI VWDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLWLHV DV LQWURGXFHGE\(OLDV>(OL@DQGIXUWKHUGHYHORSHGE\6SHQFHDQGRWKHUV>6SH@ 7KHEDVLFLGHDRIWKLVFRQFHSWZDVWRILQGDQLQGLFDWRUIRUWKHHIIHFWRIVKLIWLQJRID FRPSRQHQW SDUDPHWHU GLVWULEXWLRQ RQ \LHOG V\VWHPV RU SURGXFWV SURGXFHG LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK VSHFLILFDWLRQV (OLDV GLYLGHG WKH VLPXODWHG V\VWHPV LQWR V\VWHPV FRPSO\LQJ ZLWK WKH VSHFLILFDWLRQV FDOOHG SDVVHV DQG V\VWHPV QRW FRPSO\LQJ FDOOHG
IDLOV 7KHVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\IRUFRPSRQHQWSDUDPHWHU[,LVWKHQFRPSXWHGDV 0L =
+
×
S SDVV ([L ) - S IDLO ([L ) G[L
(
-
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
5HVSRQVH
5HVSRQVH
3DUDPHWHUKDYLQJKLJKVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
3UREDELOLW\GHQVLW\SDVVHVIDLOV
3UREDELOLW\GHQVLW\SDVVHVIDLOV
3DUDPHWHUKDYLQJORZVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
3DUDPHWHUKDYLQJKLJKVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
3DUDPHWHUKDYLQJORZVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
)LJXUH(DWRSOHIW EWRSULJKW FERWWRPOHIW GERWWRPULJKW )RUIXUWKHUH[SODQDWLRQVHHWH[W $ IHZ DGYDQWDJHV RI WKLV FRQFHSW DV LQWURGXFHG E\ (OLDV DQG IXUWKHU GHYHORSHG E\ 6SHQFHDUH LWPHDVXUHV\LHOG FRPSOLDQFHZLWK DOOVSHFLILFDWLRQV VHQVLWLYLW\ UDWKHU WKDQ WKH VHQVLWLYLW\RIDQ\VLQJOHV\VWHPSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRU LW PHDVXUHV VHQVLWLYLW\ WR FRPSRQHQW SDUDPHWHU VWDWLVWLFV UDWKHU WKDQ WR FRPSRQHQWSDUDPHWHUYDOXHV LWFDQEHXVHGLQVLWXDWLRQVZLWKQRQOLQHDUV\VWHPEHKDYLRXUDVGHPRQVWUDWHGLQ ILJXUH(DDQGE )LJXUH(DVKRZVDVFDWWHUSORWIRUDYDULDEOHGLVSOD\LQJQRQOLQHDUEHKDYLRXU)URP WKHVFDWWHUSORWFDQEHVHHQWKHVROLGOLQHLQILJXUH(D WKDWDOLQHDULVDWLRQLQWKLV VLWXDWLRQ ZRXOG UHVXOW LQ D YHU\ ORZ VHQVLWLYLW\ VORSH ZKHUHDV WKH DSSUR[LPDWHG SDVVIDLO SUREDELOLW\ GHQVLW\ LQ ILJXUH (E VKRZV WKDW WKH UHVXOWLQJ VWDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLW\ZLOOEHYHU\KLJKFORVHWR
5HVSRQVH 3UREDELOLW\GHQVLW\SDVVHVIDLOV
3DUDPHWHUKDYLQJQRQOLQHDUUHVSRQVH
3DUDPHWHUKDYLQJQRQOLQHDUUHVSRQVH
)LJXUH(DWRS DQGEERWWRP )RUIXUWKHUH[SODQDWLRQVHHWH[W $ SUREOHP DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH FRQFHSW RI VWDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLWLHV LV UHODWHG WR WKH EHKDYLRXUIRUYHU\ORZQXPEHURISDVVHVRUIDLOVHYHQWXDOO\UHGXFLQJWRDVLQJOHSDVV RUDVLQJOHIDLO,QWKLVVLWXDWLRQWKHUHODWHGSUREDELOLW\GHQVLW\ZLOOUHGXFHWRD'LUDF GHOWD IXQFWLRQ d[L[L ZKHUH [L LV WKH YDOXH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH YDOXH IRU SDUDPHWHU[LRIWKHVLQJOHSDVVRIIDLO7KLVGHOWDIXQFWLRQLVGHILQHGDV
Ñ IRU[ = [ d ( [ - [ ) = Ò Ó IRU[ [
DQG
× d ([ - [ )G[ =
(
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
0L =
Ê
DOOELQV
Q SDVV (ELQL ) Q IDLO (ELQL ) 1 SDVVHV 1 IDLOV
(
,QWKLVHTXDWLRQQSDVVELQ, DQGQIDLOELQ, UHSUHVHQWWKHQXPEHURISDVVHVRUIDLOVLQ ELQ,UHVSHFWLYHO\1SDVVHVDQG1IDLOVUHSUHVHQWWKHWRWDOQXPEHURISDVVHVRUIDLOV$V DOUHDG\ LQGLFDWHG KLVWRJUDPV KDYH WR EH PDGH 7KLV LQFOXGHV WKH VHOHFWLRQ RI WKH ELQV6HOHFWLRQRIWKHELQVFDQLQIOXHQFHWKHFDOFXODWLRQUHVXOW$WRRORZQXPEHURI ELQVUHVXOWVLQLQVXIILFLHQWUHVROXWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWLQJVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\7RRPDQ\ ELQVUHVXOWLQVSLN\ JUDVVOLNH W\SHRIKLVWRJUDPV7KLVPD\OHDGGXHWRWKHVSLNHV WRDQLQFRUUHFWYDOXHIRUWKHVWDWLVWLFDOVHQVLWLYLW\
5HIHUHQFHV
>$DU@
$DU¡ 5DJQDU %RGVEHUJ /DUV +RNVWDG 3HU 5HOLDELOLW\ 3UHGLFWLRQ +DQGERRN &RPSXWHU%DVHG 3URFHVV 6DIHW\ 6\VWHPV 7URQGKHLP 7KH )RXQGDWLRQ IRU 6FLHQWLILF DQG ,QGXVWULDO 5HVHDUFK DW WKH 1RUZHJLDQ,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\6,17()
>$GD@
$GDPVNL 5REHUW 6 (VWDEOLVKLQJ SURFHGXUHV IRU $16,,6$6 WHVWLQJ DQG E\SDVVLQJ VDIHW\ V\VWHPV FRPSOLDQFH 3URFHHGLQJV ,6$ 7(&+(;32 1& 5HVHDUFK 7ULDQJOH 3DUN ,QVWUXPHQW 6RFLHW\ RI $PHULFD
>$SH@
$3(// $ZDUHQHVV DQG 3UHSDUHGQHVV IRU (PHUJHQFLHV DW /RFDO /HYHO/LVWRIVHOHFWHGDFFLGHQWV KWWSZZZXQHSLHRUJDSHOODFFLGHQWKWPO 81(3 'LYLVLRQ RI 7HFKQRORJ\,QGXVWU\DQG(FRQRPLFV81(37,( 3DULV
>$VK@
$VKWRQ 3 /HLFKW 5 0RGHOOLQJ ,QGXVWULDO 6\VWHPV XVLQJ )DXOW 7UHH DQG 0RQWH &DUOR $QDO\VLV 7HFKQLTXHV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3UREDELOLVWLF 6DIHW\ $VVHVVPHQW DQG 0DQDJHPHQW &RQIHUHQFH (65(/µ36$0,,, /RQGRQ6SULQJHU9HUODJ
>%HX@
,-:5- YDQ %HXUGHQ 5HOLDELOLW\ DQDO\VLV RI 4XDGORJ )LHOG IDLOXUH UHVHDUFK DQG VWXG\ RI WKH UHOLDELOLW\ LQIRUPDWLRQ IORZ 06F WKHVLV (LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
>%OL@
LU(*YDQGHQ%OLHNLU-/5RXYUR\HSURIGULU$&%URPEDFKHU 'DQJHURXVGHWHFWHGIDLOXUHV+RZWRGHFLGHZKHQWRUHSDLU"WREH SXEOLVKHGSURFHHGLQJV(65(/FRQIHUHQFHVHSWHPEHU 7RULQR,WDO\ %OLHN(*YDQGHQ$/$50$QDO\VLVRQ/HYHORI$5FKLWHFWXUHXVLQJ 0DUNRY PRGHOV 06F WKHVLV (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7HFKQRORJ\
>%OL@
>%OLD@
%OLHN LU (* YDQ GHQ $XWRPDWHG 0DUNRY $QDO\VLV RQ 6DIHW\ V\VWHPV WR (YDOXDWH WKH 5HOLDELOLW\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ KHOG GXULQJ ,6$7(&+FRQIHUHQFH3KLODGHOSKLD86$
>%OLE@
%OLHN YDQ GHQ (* 6SLNHU 57K( 5RXYUR\H -/ %URPEDFKHU $& $XWRPDWHG 0DUNRY DQDO\VLV RI VDIHW\ V\VWHPV WR HYDOXDWH WKH UHOLDELOLW\ SURFHHGLQJV ,6$7(&+ FRQIHUHQFH 3KLODGHOSKLD 86$
>%RQ@
%RQG .HQ 7 ,6$ DQG ,(& VWDQGDUGV +RZ DUH WKH\ LPSDFWLQJ WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWU\" SUHVHQWHG DW 6W DQQXDO V\PSRVLXP RI WKH 0DU\ .D\2¶&RQQRUSURFHVVVDIHW\FHQWHU³%H\RQGUHJXODWRU\FRPSOLDQFH PDNLQJVDIHW\VHFRQGQDWXUH´&ROOHJHVWDWLRQ7H[DV0DUFK
>%R\@
%R\G 0DUN $ :KDW 0DUNRY 0RGHOLQJ &DQ 'R IRU
>%UR@
$& %URPEDFKHU 'HVLJQLQJ UHOLDEOH SURGXFWV LQ D FRVW DQG WLPH GULYHQPDUNHWDFRQIOLFWRUDFKDOOHQJHLQDXJXUDOVSHHFK(LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\)HEUXDU\
>%UR@
%URPEDFKHU$& 5HOLDELOLW\E\'HVLJQ-RKQ:LOH\DQG6RQV8. &KLFKHVWHU
>%UR@
%URPEDFKHU3URIGULU$&5RXYUR\HLU-/6DIHW\$QDO\VLV1$0 +,336 V\VWHPV XVLQJ VWDWLVWLFDO VHQVLWLYLW\ WHFKQLTXHV 78( LQWHUQDO UHSRUW-XO\
>%UR@
%URPEDFKHU 3URIGULU $& +RXWHUPDQV LU 0-0 5RXYUR\H LU -/6SLNHU,QJ57K(6\VWHPDWLFIDLOXUHVLQ6DIHW\6\VWHPV+RZ WR DQDO\VH KRZ WR RSWLPLVH SURFHHGLQJV ,6$ FRQIHUHQFH &KLFDJR 5HVHDUFK7ULDQJOH3DUN,QVWUXPHQW6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD2FWREHU
>%URD@
%URPEDFKHU $& 3UHGLFWLQJ UHOLDELOLW\ RI KLJK YROXPH FRQVXPHU SURGXFWV VRPH H[SHULHQFHV 3UHVHQWHG DW V\PSRVLXP ³7KH UHOLDELOLW\ FKDOOHQJH´ RUJDQLVHG E\ )LQQ -HQVHQ &RQVXOWDQF\ /RQGRQ
>%UR@
%URPEDFKHU $& +DQGRXW FRXUVH 6 UHOLDELOLW\ RI PHFKDQLFDO HTXLSPHQW(LQGKRYHQ(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
>%URD@
$&%URPEDFKHU0DWXULW\LQGH[RQUHOLDELOLW\FRYHULQJQRQWHFKQLFDO DVSHFWVRI,(&UHOLDELOLW\FHUWLILFDWLRQ5HOLDELOLW\(QJLQHHULQJ 6\VWHP6DIHW\9RO1R1RYHPEHU
>%7@
+DQGERRN RI 5HOLDELOLW\ 'DWD IRU &RPSRQHQWV XVHG 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV6\VWHPV,VVXH%ULWLVK7HOHFRP
>&&3@
*XLGHOLQHV IRU 6DIH $XWRPDWLRQ RI &KHPLFDO 3URFHVVHV 1< 1HZ
>'DY@
'DYLGVRQ-RKQ+XQVOH\&DWK\7KHUHOLDELOLW\RIPHFKDQLFDOV\VWHPV /RQGRQ0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ3XEOLFDWLRQV/LPLWHG
>',1@
',1 9 9'( *UXQGVlW]H IU 5HFKQHU LQ 6\VWHPHQ PLW 6LFKHUKHLWVDXIJDEHQ %HUOLQ 'HXWVFKHV ,QVWLWXW IU 1RUPXQJ HY
>',1@
',1 065 6FKXW]HLQULFKWXQJHQ $QIRUGHUXQJHQ XQG 0DVVQDKPHQ]XUJHVLFKHUWHQ)XQNWLRQ%HUOLQ'HXWVFKHV,QVWLWXWIU 1RUPXQJHY
>',1D@
',1 9 *UXQGOHJHQGH 6LFKHUKHLWVEHWUDFKWXQJHQ IU 065 6FKXW]HLQULFKWXQJHQ %HUOLQ 'HXWVFKHV ,QVWLWXW IU 1RUPXQJ HY
LQ
>',1E@
',1 9 9'( $ *UXQGVlW]H IU 5HFKQHU LQ 6\VWHPHQ PLW 6LFKHUKHLWVDXIJDEHQ bQGHUXQJ $ %HUOLQ 'HXWVFKHV ,QVWLWXW IU 1RUPXQJHY
>(OL@
1- (OLDV 1HZ VWDWLVWLFDO PHWKRGV IRU DVVLJQLQJ GHYLFH WROHUDQFHV 3URFHHGLQJV ,((( LQWHUQDWLRQDO V\PSRVLXP RQ FLUFXLWV DQG V\VWHPV ,6&$61HZWRQ0DVV86$
>(OV@
(OVD\HG $ (OVD\HG 5HOLDELOLW\ (QJLQHHULQJ $GGLVRQ :HVOH\ /RQJPDQLVEQ
>)OH@
)OHPLQJ .1 $ SUREDELOLVWLF PRGHO IRU FRPPRQ PRGH IDLOXUHV LQ UHGXQGDQW VDIHW\ V\VWHPV 86 *HQHUDO DWRPLF UHSRUW &$
>*HH@
'&/ YDQ *HHVW 6LPXODWLRQ DQG RSWLPLVDWLRQ RI FLUFXLWOHYHO UHOLDELOLW\IRUORQJWHUPIDLOXUHPHFKDQLVPV3K'WKHVLV8QLYHUVLW\RI 7ZHQWH1HWKHUODQGV
>*RE@
*REOH:LOOLDP0(YDOXDWLQJ&RQWURO6\VWHPV5HOLDELOLW\7HFKQLTXHV DQG$SSOLFDWLRQV,QVWUXPHQW6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD
>*RE@
*REOH :0 6DIHW\ RI SURJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLF V\VWHPV &ULWLFDO LVVXHV GLDJQRVWLFV DQG FRPPRQ FDXVH SURFHHGLQJV RI WK FRQIHUHQFHRQDGYDQFHVLQSURFHVVFRQWURO,FKHP(
>*RED@
*REOH:LOOLDP0&RQWURO6\VWHPV6DIHW\(YDOXDWLRQDQG5HOLDELOLW\ VHFRQGHGLWLRQ,QVWUXPHQW6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD
>*REE@
:LOOLDP0*REOH7KHXVHDQGGHYHORSPHQWRITXDQWLWDWLYHUHOLDELOLW\ DQG VDIHW\ DQDO\VLV LQ QHZ SURGXFW GHVLJQ 3K' WKHVLV (LQGKRYHQ 8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\1HWKHUODQGV
>*REF@
*REOH :0 %XNRZVNL -9 %URPEDFKHU $& +RZ GLDJQRVWLF FRYHUDJH LPSURYHV VDIHW\ LQ SURJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLF V\VWHPV ,6$ 7UDQVDFWLRQV9RO1R
>*RE@
:0 *REOH $& %URPEDFKHU 8VLQJ D IDLOXUH PRGHV HIIHFWV DQG GLDJQRVWLF DQDO\VLV )0('$ WR PHDVXUH GLDJQRVWLF FRYHUDJH LQ SURJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLF V\VWHPV 5HOLDELOLW\ (QJLQHHULQJ 6\VWHP 6DIHW\9RO1R1RYHPEHU
>+HO@
-RQ & +HOWRQ 8QFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV DQG VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHVIRUXVHLQSHUIRUPDQFHDVVHVVPHQWIRUUDGLRDFWLYHZDVWH GLVSRVDO5HOLDELOLW\(QJLQHHULQJ 6\VWHP6DIHW\YRO
>+RXD@
+RXWHUPDQV LU 0-0 1LHXZHQKXL]HQ SURILU -. %URPEDFKHU SURIGULU $& $XWRPDWLF 6\QWKHVLV RI 0DUNRY 0RGHOV 3URFHHGLQJV RIWKH3UREDELOLVWLF6DIHW\$VVHVVPHQWDQG0DQDJHPHQW&RQIHUHQFH (65(/µ36$0,,, /RQGRQ6SULQJHU9HUODJ
>+RXE@
+RXWHUPDQV 0-0 *REOH :0 %URPEDFKHU $& &UHDWLQJ 0DUNRY0RGHOVIRU$SSOLFDWLRQVLQWKH3URFHVV,QGXVWU\3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ &RPSXWHU 6DIHW\ 5HOLDELOLW\ DQG6HFXULW\6$)(&203 1HZ
>+RX@
+RXWHUPDQV LU 0-0 %URPEDFKHU SURIGULU $& $XWRPDWHG 6DIHW\ DQG 8SWLPH $QDO\VLV RI 6DIHW\ ,QVWUXPHQWHG 6\VWHPV 3URFHHGLQJV ,6$ 7(&+(;32 1& 5HVHDUFK 7ULDQJOH 3DUN ,QVWUXPHQW6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD
>+RX@
+RXWHUPDQV 0-0 5RXYUR\H -/ 7KH ,QIOXHQFH RI 'HVLJQ 3DUDPHWHUV RQ WKH 3HUIRUPDQFH RI 6DIHW\5HODWHG 6\VWHPV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH 6DIHW\ RI ,QGXVWULDO $XWRPDWHG6\VWHPV2FWREHU0RQWUHDO
>+6(@
+HDOWKDQG6DIHW\([HFXWLYH2XWRIFRQWUROZK\FRQWUROV\VWHPVJR ZURQJ DQG KRZ WR SUHYHQW IDLOXUH +6( ERRNV ,6%1
>+XL@
+XLMEHQ $-0 5HOLDELOLW\ LPSURYHPHQW LQ KLJKYROXPH FRQVXPHU HOHFWURQLFV SUHVHQWHG DW V\PSRVLXP ³7KH UHOLDELOLW\ FKDOOHQJH´ RUJDQLVHGE\)LQQ-HQVHQ&RQVXOWDQF\/RQGRQ
>,(&@
,(& )XQFWLRQDO 6DIHW\ RI HOHFWULFDOHOHFWURQLFSURJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLF VDIHW\UHODWHG V\VWHPV *HQqYH %XUHDX &HQWUDO GH OD &RPPLVVLRQ(OHFWURWHFKQLTXH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
>,(&@
,(& $QDO\VLV 7HFKQLTXHV IRU V\VWHP UHOLDELOLW\ ± 3URFHGXUH IRU IDLOXUH PRGH DQG HIIHFWV DQDO\VLV )0($ *HQqYH %XUHDX &HQWUDO GHOD&RPPLVVLRQ(OHFWURWHFKQLTXH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
>,(&@
,(&)DXOW7UHH$QDO\VLV)7$ *HQqYH%XUHDX&HQWUDOGHOD &RPPLVVLRQ(OHFWURWHFKQLTXH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
>,(&@
,(& $QDO\VLV 7HFKQLTXHV IRU 'HSHQGDELOLW\ ± 5HOLDELOLW\ %ORFN 'LDJUDP 0HWKRG *HQqYH %XUHDX &HQWUDO GH OD &RPPLVVLRQ (OHFWURWHFKQLTXH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
>,(&@
'UDIW VWDQGDUG ,(& )XQFWLRQDO VDIHW\ VDIHW\ LQVWUXPHQWHG V\VWHPVIRUWKHSURFHVVLQGXVWU\VHFWRU*HQqYH%XUHDX&HQWUDOGH OD&RPPLVVLRQ(OHFWURWHFKQLTXH,QWHUQDWLRQDO
>,6$D@
$16,,6$6$SSOLFDWLRQRI6DIHW\,QVWUXPHQWHG6\VWHPVIRU WKH 3URFHVV ,QGXVWULHV 1& 5HVHDUFK 7ULDQJOH 3DUN ,QVWUXPHQW 6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD
>,6$E@
G75 GUDIW 7HFKQLFDO 5HSRUW (OHFWULFDO ( (OHFWURQLF ( 3URJUDPPDEOH HOHFWURQLF 6\VWHPV 3(6 6DIHW\ (YDOXDWLRQ 7HFKQLTXHV 1& 5HVHDUFK 7ULDQJOH 3DUN ,QVWUXPHQW 6RFLHW\ RI $PHULFD
>,62@
,62 4XDOLW\ PDQDJHPHQW DQG TXDOLW\ DVVXUDQFH VWDQGDUGV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO2UJDQLVDWLRQIRU6WDQGDUGLVDWLRQ
>-RQ@
-RQHV -HI DQG +D\HV -RVHSK $ FRPSDULVRQ RI HOHFWURQLFUHOLDELOLW\ SUHGLFWLRQ PRGHOV ,((( WUDQVDFWLRQV RQ UHOLDELOLW\ 9RO 1R -XQH
>.DS@
.DSODQ6WDQOH\DQG*DUULFN%-RKQ2QWKHTXDQWLWDWLYHGHILQLWLRQRI ULVN5LVNDQDO\VLV9RO1R
>.QH@
.QHJWHULQJ%HUW%URPEDFKHU$DUQRXW& *HQHUDWLQJ PLFUR 0DUNRY PRGHOV IRU TXDQWLWDWLYH VDIHW\ DQG UHOLDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQW IRU DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ 3URFHHGLQJV ,6$ 7(&+(;32 YROXPH+RXVWRQ
>.RF@
.RF]D *DERU 0RGHOV DQG DOJRULWKPV IRU DXWRPDWLF UHOLDELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQWRIFRPSOH[V\VWHPV'HOIW7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWHLW'HOIW
>.UH@
(UZLQ .UH\V]LJ $GYDQFHG HQJLQHHULQJ PDWKHPDWLFV -RKQ :LOH\ 6RQVLQFLVEQ
>.XP@
.XPDPRWR + DQG +HQOH\ (- 3UREDELOLVWLF 5LVN DVVHVVPHQW DQG 0DQDJHPHQW IRU (QJLQHHUV DQG 6FLHQWLVWV VHFRQG HGLWLRQ 1HZ
>/HZ@
/HZLV (( ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR 5HOLDELOLW\ (QJLQHHULQJ 1HZ
>/HZ@
/HZLV (( ,QWURGXFWLRQ WR 5HOLDELOLW\ (QJLQHHULQJ VHFRQG HGLWLRQ 1HZ
>/X@
/X <XDQ /RK +7 ,EUDKLP < 6DQGHU 3& %URPEDFKHU $& 5HOLDELOLW\LQDWLPHGULYHQSURGXFWGHYHORSPHQWSURFHVV4XDOLW\DQG 5HOLDELOLW\(QJLQHHULQJ,QWHUQDWLRQDO9ROXPH,VVXH
>0DU@
0 $MPRQH 0DUVDQ * %DOER * &RQWH 0RGHOOLQJ ZLWK JHQHUDOL]HG VWRFKDVWLF3HWULQHWV-RKQ:LOH\ 6RQV/WG&KLFKHVWHULVEQ
>0,/@
86 0,/67'$ 3URFHGXUHV IRU 3HUIRUPLQJ D )DLOXUH 0RGH (IIHFWV DQG &ULWLFDOLW\ $QDO\VLV 9$ 6SULQJILHOG 1DWLRQDO 7HFKQLFDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ6HUYLFH
>0,/@
86 0,/+'%.) 0LOLWDU\ +DQGERRN 5HOLDELOLW\ 3UHGLFWLRQ RI (OHFWURQLF (TXLSPHQW 1DWLRQDO 7HFKQLFDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6HUYLFH 9$ 6SULQJILHOG
>0LQ@
0LQLVWHU YDQ 9520 %LMODJH ELM EULHI DDQ GH 7ZHHGH .DPHU MXQL YHUJDGHUMDDUQU
>0XU@
7DGDR 0XUDWD 3HWUL QHWV SURSHUWLHV DQDO\VLV DQG DSSOLFDWLRQV 3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH,(((YROQR$SULO
>1JR@
1JRP / &DEDUED\H $ &ODXGH %DURQ & 7DNLQJ LQWR $FFRXQW RI 'HSHQGHQF\ 5HODWLRQV LQ WKH 0RQWH&DUOR¶V 6LPXODWLRQ RI QRQ FRKHUHQW )DXOW 7UHHV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3UREDELOLVWLF 6DIHW\ $VVHVVPHQW DQG 0DQDJHPHQW &RQIHUHQFH 36$0 1HZ
>2UH@
2UHGD SDUWLFLSDQWV 2IIVKRUH 5HOLDELOLW\ 'DWD +DQGERRN UG (GLWLRQ 25('$
>2V@
2V &OLI YDQ $SSOLFDWLRQ RULHQWHG VDIHW\ DQDO\VLV 06F WKHVLV (LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\1HWKHUODQGV
>3HF@
0LFKDHO3HFKW:K\WKHWUDGLWLRQDOUHOLDELOLW\SUHGLFWLRQPRGHOVGRQRW ZRUNLVWKHUHDQDOWHUQDWLYH"(OHFWURQLFVFRROLQJ-DQXDU\9RO QRKWWSZZZHOHFWURQLFV FRROLQJFRP5HVRXUFHV(&B$UWLFOHV-$1MDQBKWP
>3HW@
9DOLD73HWNRYD3HWHU&6DQGHUDQG$DUQRXW&%URPEDFKHU7KH XVH RI TXDOLW\ PHWULFV LQ VHUYLFH FHQWUHV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 3URGXFWLRQ(FRQRPLFV9ROXPH,VVXH$XJXVW
>3HW@
-DPHV / 3HWHUVRQ 3HWUL QHW WKHRU\ DQG WKH PRGHOOLQJ RI V\VWHPV (QJOHZRRG&OLIIV3UHQWLFH+DOOLVEQ
>3HW@
9DOLD73HWNRYD3HWHU&6DQGHU$DUQRXW&%URPEDFKHU7KHUROH RI WKH VHUYLFH FHQWUH LQ LPSURYHPHQW SURFHVVHV 4XDOLW\ DQG 5HOLDELOLW\ (QJLQHHULQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 9ROXPH ,VVXH 1RYHPEHU'HFHPEHU
>3RI@
3RIDKO(NNHKDUG8VHRIDSSOLFDWLRQVSHFLILFVWDQGDUGVDQGGLUHFWLYHV RI WKH (XURSHDQ FRPPXQLW\ LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK WKH XSFRPLQJ JOREDO VWDQGDUG ,(& IRU SURGXFW FHUWLILFDWLRQ 3URFHHGLQJV ,6$ 7(&+(;32YROXPH+RXVWRQ
>5RE@
'DYLG * 5REHUWVRQ $ VXUYH\ RI SUREDELOLVWLF PHWKRGV XVHG LQ UHOLDELOLW\ ULVN DQG XQFHUWDLQW\ DQDO\VLV DQDO\WLFDO WHFKQLTXHV , 6DQGLD UHSRUW 6$1' 6DQGLD 1DWLRQDO /DERUDWRULHV $OEXTXHUTXH1HZ0H[LFR86$
>5RX@
5RXYUR\H -/ 6WDYULDQLGLV 3 6SLNHU 57K( 1LHXZHQKXL]HQ -. %URPEDFKHU $& 8QFHUWDLQW\ LQ VDIHW\ 1HZ WHFKQLTXHV IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW DQG RSWLPLVDWLRQ RI VDIHW\ LQ SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ 3URFHHGLQJV :LQWHU $QQXDO 0HHWLQJ $60( 6DIHW\ (QJLQHHULQJ DQG 5LVN $QDO\VLV 6(5$9RO 1HZ
>5RX@
5RXYUR\H ,U -/ *REOH 06F :0 %URPEDFKHU 3URI'U,U $& $ FRPSDULVRQ VWXG\ RI TXDOLWDWLYH DQG TXDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI VDIHW\ LQ LQGXVWU\ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3UREDELOLVWLF 6DIHW\ $VVHVVPHQW DQG 0DQDJHPHQW &RQIHUHQFH (65(/µ36$0,,, /RQGRQ6SULQJHU9HUODJ
>5RX@
,U -/ 5RXYUR\H ,U 0-0 +RXWHUPDQV 3URI'U,U $& %URPEDFKHU 6\VWHPDWLF )DLOXUHV LQ 6DIHW\ 6\VWHPV 6RPH REVHUYDWLRQV RQ WKH ,6$6 VWDQGDUG 3URFHHGLQJV ,6$ 7(&+(;32YROXPH$QDKHLP
>5RXD@
5RXYUR\H ,U -/ %URPEDFKHU 3URIGULU $& 1HZ TXDQWLWDWLYH VDIHW\VWDQGDUGVGLIIHUHQWWHFKQLTXHVGLIIHUHQWUHVXOWV"3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH (XURSHDQ FRQIHUHQFH RQ 6DIHW\ DQG 5HOLDELOLW\ ± (65(/ 5RWWHUGDP$$%DONHPD
>5RXE@
5RXYUR\H-DQ/%URPEDFKHU$DUQRXW&2SWLPL]LQJDQG0RGHOLQJ 2II/LQH3URRI7HVWVIRU6DIHW\6\VWHPVXVLQJWKH(QKDQFHG0DUNRY $QDO\VLV 7HFKQLTXH $ 0RVOHK DQG 5$ %DUL (GV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3UREDELOLVWLF 6DIHW\ $VVHVVPHQW DQG 0DQDJHPHQW &RQIHUHQFH 36$0 6SULQJHU1HZ
>5RX@
5RXYUR\H-/%URPEDFKHU$&1HZTXDQWLWDWLYHVDIHW\VWDQGDUGV GLIIHUHQW WHFKQLTXHV GLIIHUHQW UHVXOWV" 5HOLDELOLW\ (QJLQHHULQJ 6\VWHP6DIHW\9RO1R1RYHPEHU
>6DQ@
3HWHU & 6DQGHU DQG $DUQRXW & %URPEDFKHU $QDO\VLV RI TXDOLW\ LQIRUPDWLRQ IORZV LQ WKH SURGXFW FUHDWLRQ SURFHVV RI KLJKYROXPH FRQVXPHU SURGXFWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 3URGXFWLRQ (FRQRPLFV 9ROXPH,VVXH$XJXVW
>6HY@
6HYHVR ,, GLUHFWLYH >((&@ &RXQFLO 'LUHFWLYH RI 'HFHPEHU RQ WKH FRQWURO RI PDMRU DFFLGHQW KD]DUGV LQYROYLQJ GDQJHURXV VXEVWDQFHV7KHFRXQFLORIWKH(XURSHDQXQLRQ
>6SH@
5REHUW6SHQFH5DQGHHS6LQJK6RLQ7ROHUDQFH'HVLJQRI(OHFWURQLF &LUFXLWV$PVWHUGDP$GGLVRQ:HVOH\LVEQ
>6WD@
%HVOXLWULVLFR¶V]ZDUHRQJHYDOOHQ0DMRUKD]DUGVGHFUHH 6WDDWVEODG
>6WR@
'LHQVW YRRU KHW 6WRRPZH]HQ 6WRRPEHGULMI HQ YHLOLJKHLG 6WDDWVGUXNNHULMHQ8LWJHYHULMEHGULMI
>9HO@
9HOG-LQµW$QDO\VHYDQRUJDQLVDWLHSUREOHPHQHHQWRHSDVVLQJYDQ KHW GHQNHQ LQ V\VWHPHQ HQ SURFHVVHQ H KHU]LHQH GUXN (OVHYLHU
>:RO@
:ROEHUW 30 &DULF '6 %URPEDFKHU $& 3UHGLFWLRQ DQG YHULILFDWLRQRIVWDWLVWLFDOSURGXFWEHKDYLRXUDSSOLHGWRWKH6DWLQHOOH,,, (SLODWRU 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 3UREDELOLVWLF 6DIHW\ $VVHVVPHQW DQG 0DQDJHPHQW&RQIHUHQFH(65(/µ36$0,,, /RQGRQ6SULQJHU 9HUODJ
&XUULFXOXP9LWDH
-DQ 5RXYUR\H ZDV ERUQ LQ (OVORR WKH 1HWKHUODQGV RQ 6HSWHPEHU +H REWDLQHGKLV06FLQDSSOLHGSK\VLFVLQDW(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\ -DQ5RXYUR\HKDVH[SHULHQFHLQLQGXVWULDOVDIHW\DQGUHOLDELOLW\LPSURYHPHQWSURMHFWV DQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVDIHW\DQGUHOLDELOLW\DQDO\VLVPHWKRGVDQGWRROV +H LV ZRUNLQJ DV OHFWXUHU LQ WKH JURXS 5HOLDELOLW\ RI 0HFKDQLFDO (TXLSPHQW GHSDUWPHQW0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHULQJDWWKH(LQGKRYHQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\+LV DUHDVRILQWHUHVWLQFOXGHUHOLDELOLW\RIPHFKDQLFDOHTXLSPHQWHVSHFLDOO\WKHUHOLDELOLW\ DQG VDIHW\ RI VDIHW\ V\VWHPV LQ WKH SURFHVV LQGXVWU\ GHVLJQ WRROV IRU SUHGLFWLQJ UHOLDELOLW\RIKLJKYROXPHSURGXFWVDQGDVSHFWVRIXQFHUWDLQW\LQVDIHW\DQGUHOLDELOLW\ HYDOXDWLRQ