Ekonomikos teorija

VILNIAUS GEDIMINO TECHNIKOS UNIVERSITETAS

EKONOMIKOS TEORIJA A.BuraþDV$-DNXWLV93HWUDãNHYLþLXV$6WHSDQRYDV /âHþNXW¡6=DLFHY ( 5 leidimas)

VILNIUS 2005

UDK 330.1(075.8) Ak 34

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Stepan Zaicev R E KOM E ND AV O SP AU DAI:

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ISBN 9955-501-79-0

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VIENETUKAI 1. Infliacija 2. Amortizacija 3. Kapitalas 4. Utilitarizmas

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DVEJETUKAI 5. Infliacija ir amortizacija

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35

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mechanizmu.

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3.

ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

3DNODXVRVLUSDVLÌORVHODVWLQJXPDV Elastingumo samprata ekonomikoje

$QNVWHVQLDPH VN\ULXMH DSWDU¡PH NDLQÐ LU SDNODXVRV EHL SDVLÌORV U\ãL ULQNRMH 'LG¡MDQWL NDLQD OHPLD SDNODXVRV PDå¡MLP LU SDVLÌORV GLG¡MLP LU DWYLUNãþLDL 7DþLDX NLHN NDLQRV NLWLPDV NHLþLD SDNODXV LU SDVLÌO" $NLYDL]GX NDG NDLQRV DXJLPDV GDU\V QHYLHQRG ³WDN REXROLÐ LU EHQ]LQR SDNODXVRV SRN\þLXL 3DNODXVRV LU SDVLÌORV SRN\þLDPV ³YHUWLQWL HNRQRPLNRMH YDUWRMDPD HODVWLQJXPR VYRND (ODVWLQJXPDV SDJDO MR DSLEU¡åLPR WLNVO QXVWDWRPDV GYHMRSDL * NDL QRULPD HODVWLQJXP SDDLãNLQWL MLV DSLEU¡åLDPDV NDLS SDNODXVRV DU SDVLÌlos kiekio kitimo procentas, kai kainos pakinta vienu procentu; • NDL QRULPD PDWHPDWLãNDL DSVNDLþLXRWL MLV DSLEU¡åLDPDV NDLS SDNODXVRV DU SD VLÌORV NLHNLR SURFHQWLQLR SDGLG¡MLPR LU NDLQÐ SURFHQWLQLR SDGLG¡MLPR VDQW\NLV Paklausos E = ¨'  ¨3 3DVLÌORV ( ¨6   ¨3 .

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Q SDVLNHLWLPDV QXR 3

39

3. ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

Santykinis elastingumas parodytas 12 pav. b. 7DP WLNUDV NDLQ Ð NLWL PDV QXR Px iki P2 OHPLD GLGHVQL SDNODXVRV LU SDVLÌORV NLHNLR SDVLNHLWLP QXR 4: iki 02. Skait

PHQLQLV HODVWLQJXPDV \UD GLGHVQLV Xå YLHQHW 

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³

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Santykinis neelastingumas. 

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3- ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

40

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e) Absoliutus neelastingumas 12

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41

3. ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

A

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c – E1 > 1

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Pi iki P2, pa-

liko toks pat kaip ir esant kainai Px - t. y. P1AQ1O.

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42

ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

Laikas

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esant rinkos pu-

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kuriame, esant naujai kainai

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43

3. ELASTINCUMO TEORIJA

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parodyta D kreiY¡V

a tai

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sa neelastinga. 3UDEDQJRV SUDPRJÐ SRLOVLR LOJR YDUWRMLPR SUHNLÐ SDNODXVD VSDUþLDL GLG¡MD DXJDQW SDMDPRPV .DLS PDW\WL  SDY  SDNODXVRV NUHLY¡ VSDUþLDL N\OD DXNãW\Q GLG¡-

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vartojimas kintant pajamoms 15

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PAKLAUSOS ELASTINGUMAS PAJAMOMS

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44

3. ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

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3.2. Elastingumo teorijos praktinis taikymas

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priklausomai nuo to, kuris iš

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45

3. ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

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Ì

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17

PAV .

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E LASTINGUMO TEORIJOS PRITAIKYMAS KONTROLIUOJANT KAINAS

46

ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

O b) elastingos paklausos SUHN¡

O

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J UODOSIOS RINKOS MODELIS

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kainos maksimumas. Efektyviai kontroliuoti juodosios rinkos negalima, nes tiek par¡

¡

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kampio P,P2BA plotas, 18 pav. b. Juodosios rinkos modelis DNLYDL]GåLDL

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47

ELASTINGUMO TEORIJA

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jas, kuri R

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b.

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litas

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48

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tenka gamintojui.

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kestinimas. Perskirstyti pajamas norima linkme galima irgi

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\ elas-

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Sveikas protas sako, kad, mDå¡MDQW

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kalbama apie pasitenkini-

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jas patiria juos visus suvartodamas. Tuo tarpu ribinis ketvirto obuolio naudingumas

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Ribinis naudingumas =

Bendrojo naudingumo pokytis Vartojimo kiekio pokytis

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produkto vartojimo QDXGLQJXPDV SDYDL]GXRWDV  OHQWHO¡MH 4.1 /(17(/ .

PRODUKT O

Produkto vienetai (Q)

VARTOJIMO NAUDINGUMAS

Bendrasis naudingumas
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Trumpojo laikotarpio gamybos funkcija Ryšys tarS

JDP\ERV YHLNVQLÐ VQDXGÐ LU JDP\ERV UH]XOWDWÐ YDGLQD-

PDV JDP\ERV IXQNFLMD -HLJX JDP\ERV UH]XOWDWXV SDVLHNWXV SHU WDP WLNU ODLN SDå\P¡VLPH UDLGH 4 SHU W ODLN VXQDXGRW NDSLWDO FLMD WXU¡V PDWHPDWLQ¡V O\JWLHV IRUP

- .

R GDUE

- L, gamybos funk-

Q - f (K, L).

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- QXR

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ji yra tik prielaida

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³

VNLUWLQJDV JDOLP\EHV NHLVWL ²YDLULÐ JDP\ERV YHLNVQLÐ VQDXGÐ DS-

LPW³ SHU WUXPSM³ LU LOJM ³ ODLNRWDUSLXV WLNVOLQJD DWVNLUDL QDJULQ¡WL JDP\ERV IXQNFLMDV SHU WUXPSM³ LU LOJM³ ODLNRWDUS³  7UXPSXRMX ODLNRWDUSLX NDSLWDOR VQDXGRV ODLNRPRV QHNLQWDPRPLV 7UXPSRMR ODL-

NRWDUSLR JDP\ERV IXQNFLMD WXUL DWLWLQNDP PDWHPDWLQ LãUDLãN 4

— f(L,K).

64

5. KASTAI

Trumpojo laikotarpio gamybos rezultatai

Ð SHU WDP WLNU ODLNRište k lia i. J e ig u vie n o iš ga m y b o s v eik s V  n a u d o s y r a f i k s u o to s , o k it o k in ta , t u o m e t b e n d r o jo p r o d u k to , p a g a m in t o p e r B e n d r a s is p r o d u k ta s ( B P )

³

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V id u tin i s p r o d u k ta s ( V P ) \UD O\JXV EHQGURMR SURGXNWR GDOLDL WHQNDQþLDL YLH n a m k i n t a m o j o v e i k s n i o s  QDXG Ð YLHQHWXL ãLXR DWYHMX - GDUER V  QDXG Ð  V P - %3/ þLD 93 - v id u t in is p r o d u k t a s ; B P - b e n d r a s is p r o d u k ta s ; L - k in ta m o jo



YHLNVQLR GDUER V QDXGRV

R ib in is p r o d u k ta s (R P ) y ra b e n d ro jo p ro d u k to p o k y tis , p a k itu s k in ta m o jo v e ik s n a u d o m s v ie n u v ie n e tu . R P - $%3$/ þLD 53 - rib in is p ro d u k ta s; A B P - b en d ro jo p ro d u k to p o k y tis; A L -

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NLQWDQW GDUER V QDXGRPV LU HVDQW ILNVXRWRPV NDSLWDOR V QDXGRPV UH]XOWDWDL NLQWD

K a rta is y ra a k tu alu s b e n d ro jo , o k a rta is v id u tin io a rb a rib in io p ro d u k to k itim a s.

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NUHLY V

65

5. KASTAI

33 PAV. B ENDROJO PRODUKTO KITIMAS TRUMPUOJU LAIKOTARPIU

34

PAV. V IDUTINIO IR R I B I N I O PRODUKTO KITIMAS TRUMPUOJU LAIKOTARPIU

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ir

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s u s k irs to

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ka taškas, kuriame L -  R 53  7DGD LU SUDGHGD YHLNWL PDå¡MDQþLR ULELQLR rezultatyYXPR G¡VQLV 7DLS \UD WRG¡O NDG HVDQW QHNLQWDPRPV NDSLWDOR VQDXGRPV EHW GLGLQDQW GDUER V QDXGDV WXULPDV NDSLWDOR SRWHQFLDODV SDQDXGRMDPDV YLV JHULDX LU WRG¡O DXJD UH]XOWDWDV 7DþLDX GLG¡MDQW GDUER VQDXGRPV YLV PDåLDX NDSLWDOR WHQ-

ka vienam darbuotojXL

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Trumpojo laikotarpio bendrieji kaštai Bendrieji kaštai

DSLPD YLVXV NDãWXV VXVLMXVLXV VX VQDXGRPLV SUR-

GXNWR JDP\EDL -LH WDLS SDW NDLS LU JDP\ERV YHLNVQLÐ VQDXGRV JDOL EÌWL SDGDO\WL

\ fiksuotus ir kintamus. Bendrieji kastai (BK)—bendrieji fiksuoti kaštai (BFK) +bendrieji kintamieji kaštai (BKK). Bendrieji fiksuotieji kaštai QHSULNODXVR QXR JDP\ERV UH]XOWDWÐ G\GåLR 1HVYDUEX NLHN SURGXNWR YLHQHWÐ JDPLQDPD SHU WUXPS M ³ ODLNRWDUS³ GDOLV NDãW Ð VXVLMXVL Ð

su nekintamomis kapitalo sQDXGRPLV

QHNLQWD

Bendrieji kintamieji kaštai. 3DSUDVþLDXVL VDYR IRUPD EHQGULHML NLQWDPLHML NDãtai - WDL NDãWDL VXVLM VX NLQWDPRMR YHLNVQLR VQDXGRPLV JDP\ERV SURFHVH .LQWDmieji NDãWDL DSVNDLþLXRMDPL SDGDXJLQXV NLQWDPRMR YHLNVQLR VQDXGÐ NLHNL Lã MÐ NDLnos. .DGDQJL NLQWDPRMR YHLNVQLR VQDXGÐ ULELQLV SURGXNWDV QXR DWLWLQNDPRV ULERV PDå¡MD

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ILNVXRWLHML

NDãWDL

O\JÌV

200 Lt, nekinta augant gamybos apimþLDL 7RG¡O

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35 pav. Fiksotieji, kintamieji ir bendrieji kaštai

K RU L ] RQ W D O L W L H V ¡

J

J

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5. KASTAI

5.2

D/

. BENDRIEJI IR RIBINIAI KAŠTAI

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Gamybos apimtis SHU ODLNR YLHQHW 4

Bendrieji

Bendrieji fiksuoti

Bendrieji kintamieji

Ribiniai

kaštai (BK)

kaštai (BFK)

kaštai (BKK)

kaštai RK/Q

0

200

200

0

-

1

280

200

80

80

2

350

200

150

70

3

415

200

215

65

4

476

200

276

61

5

534

200

334

58

6

590

200

390

56

7

645

200

445

55

8

702

200

502

57

9

766

200

566

64

10

946

200

646

80

11

966

200

766

120

12

1146

200

946

160

13

1406

200

1206

260

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Bendrieji kaštai -

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BKK per

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Vidutiniai fiksuotieji kaštai (VFK) VXRWXRVLXV NDãWXV Lã

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SDJDPLQWÐ SURGXNWÐ VNDLþLDXV

Vidutiniai kintamieji kastai (VKK)

9).

— BFK/Q.

DSVNDLþLXRMDPL GDOLMDQW EHQGUXRVLXV NLQ-

WDPXRVLXV NDãWXV Lã SDJDPLQWÐ SURGXNWÐ VNDLþLDXV

VKK~BKK/Q.

Vidutiniai bendrieji kaštai (VBK) DSVNDLþLXRMDPL GDOLMDQW EHQGUXRVLXV NDãWXV Lã SURGXNWÐ VNDLþLDXV 9%.—BK/Q, arba sudedant vidutinius fiksuotuosius ir vidutinius kintamuosius kaštus: VBK-VFK+VKK. 9LGXWLQLÐ NDãW Ð NLWLPR KLSRWHWLQL SDY\]GL JDOLPD SDYDL]GXRWL JUDILãNDL  SDY  7DP WLNVOXL SDQDXGRVLPH  OHQWHO¡MH SDWHLNWXV GXRPHQLV

5. KASTAI

5.3 /(17(/ . TRUMPO LAIKOTARPIO VIDUTINIAI KAŠTAI Gamybos apimtis SHU ODLNR YLHQHW 4

Vidutiniai bendrieji

Vidutiniai kintamieji

Vidutiniai fiksuotieji

kaštai (VBK) (Lt)

kaštai (VKK) (Lt)

kaštai (VFK) (Lt)

0

-

1

280,0

80,0

200,0

-

2

175,0

75,0

100,0

3 4

139,4 119,0

71,6 69,0

66,6 50,0

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106,8

66,8

40,0

6 7

98,4 92,2

65,0 63,6

33,4 28,6

8

87,8

62,8

25,0

9

85,0

62,8

22,2

10

84,6

64,6

20,0

11

87,8

69,6

18,2

12

95,4

78,8

16,6

13

108,2

92,8

15,4

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Trumpojo laikotarpio ribiniai kaštai Ribiniai kašWDL

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Kaštai produkto vienetui (Lt)

RK =

RK

VBK

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{36 pav.). 36 pav. matome, kad RK kreiY¡ NHUWD 9.. LU 9%. NUHLYHV MÐ minimumo

200

100

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10

15

36 PAV . V I D U T I N I A I B E N D R IE J I , VID U TIN IAI FIKSUOTIEJI IR VIDUTINIAI KINTAMIEJI KASTAI

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v id u tin iu s

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5. KAŠTAI

69

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dos kintamos, o kito (kapitalo) -

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ribiniai kaštai.

5.3. Ilgojo laikotarpio kaštai Gamybos funkcija ilguoju laikotarpiu 7UXPSXRMX ODLNRWDUSLX JDP\ERV IXQNFLMD LãUHLãNLD U\ã³ WDUS NLQWDPÐ Lã-

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pasirinkimo galimybHV NRNLRV WXUL EÌWL NLQWDPRMR YHLNVQLR VQDXGRV ,OJXRMX ODLNRWDUpiu pagrindiniai gamybos veiksniai - darbas ir kapitalas - ODLNRPL NLQWDPDLV LU WRG¡O QXR ³PRQ¡V VSUHQGLPÐ SULNODXVR GYLHMÐ YHLNVQLÐ VQDXGÐ NRPELQDFLMÐ SDVLULQNLPDV .LHNYLHQD ãLÐ JDP\ERV YHLNVQLÐ VQDXGÐ NRPELQDFLMD OHPLD WDP WLNU UH]XOWDWÐ G\G³

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litu, netampa lygus kito veikVQLR

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Bendrasis nacionalinis produktas

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2000

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gamino). 9LVD LQYHVWLFLMÐ VXPD YDGLQDPD bendrosiomis investicijomis. Jas sudaro dvi dalys: atstatymo investicijos, VNLUWRV VXVLG¡Y¡MXVLRPV GDUER SULHPRQ¡PV DWVWDW\WL ir grynosios investicijos, VNLULDPRV QDXMRPV SDSLOGRPRPV GDUER SULHPRQ¡PV ³VLJ\WL $WVWDW\PR LQYHVWLFLMRV DWOLHNDPRV DPRUWL]DFLMRV NDSLWDOR YDUWRMLPR VVNDLWD LU XåWLNULQD SDJULQGLQLR NDSLWDOR LãVDXJRMLP R JU\QRVLRV LQYHVWLFLMRV M³ LãSOHþLD 9LVD LQYHVWLFLMÐ VXPD VXGDUR %13 GDO³ QHV YLVRV LQYHVWLFLQ¡V SUHN¡V - tiek pagrindiniam NDSLWDOXL DWQDXMLQWL WLHN MDP SO¡VWL - \UD HLQDPÐMÐ PHWÐ JDP\ERV SURGXNFLMD NXUL QHSDNOLÌQD ³ WDUSLQLR SURGXNWR VXG¡W³

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PRVR HUGYLÐ W\ULPÐ SURMHNWXV WHLNLDQW WDP WLNURV VWUXNWÌURV SDJDOE XåVLHQLR YDOVW\E¡PV DU SOHþLDQW ELXURNUDWLQLR SREÌGåLR IXQNFLMDV

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laidas - SULYDWDXV YDUWRMLPR LQYHVWLFLMÐ

nacionalines iš-

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gas, ir pridedant amortizacinius atskaitymus bei netieVLRJLQLXV YHUVOR PRNHVþLXV 5LQNRV WHRULMRMH DNLYDL]GX NDG YLHQR HNRQRPLQ¡V RSHUDFLMRV DJHQWR LãODLGRV \UD WRV SDþLRV RSHUDFLMRV NRQWUDKHQWR SDMDPRV %ÌWLQD tik SDEU¡åWL NDG YLVRV HNRQRPLNRV PDVWX LãODLG Ð VWUXNW Ì UD WROL JUDåX QHVXWDPSD VX SDMDPÐ VWUXNW Ì UD

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1 61

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Atlyginimai.

7DL VWDPELDXVLD SDMDPÐ JUXS¡ -L DSLPD GDUER XåPRNHVW³ LU DOJDV

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ir kito nekilnojamojo turto pajamos.

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Pelnas.

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skirstytasis (sulaikytasis) pelnas; jis apskaitomas bruto, t. y. prieš sumokant benGURYLÐ SDMDPÐ PRNHVW³

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kuriam nors gamybos veiksniui kaip jo pajamos; jos

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1 62



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12.5

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Investicijos Grynasis eksportas (2)

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12.4. Kiti nacionalinio produkto rodikliai %HQGUDVLV QDFLRQDOLQLV SURGXNWDV %13 QXVDNR EDLJWLQLÐ SUHNLÐ LU

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bendrasis vidiSkirtingai nuo BNP, jis apskaitomas ne rinkos kaino-

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kuri lieka visuomenei vartoti bei ga-

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priemones ir

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yra naudojamas BNP rodiklis, o ne GNP

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iš GNP atimsime netiesioginius verslo PRNHVþLXV -LH NDLS MDX åLQRPH WHONLDPL YDOVW\E¡V ELXGåHWH  WDL LU EXV QDFLRQDOLQ¡V SDMDPRV âLWDLS DSVNDLþLXRWDV QDFLRQDOLQLÐ SDMDPÐ URGLNOLV LãUHLãNLD W YLVXRPHQ¡MH VXNXUW SDMDPÐ GDO³ NXUL  JDO ¡WXPH SDYDGLQti YLVXRPHQLQ¡V JDP\ERV JU\QMD LãHLJD (net output), VXGDUDQþLD JDP\ERV YHLNVQLÐ SDMDPÐ YHLNVQLÐ NDãW Ð VXP  .LWDLS VDNDQW QDFLRQDOLQ¡ V SDMDPRV QXVDNR YHUW 

NXUL DWLWHQND LãWHNOLÐ VDYLQLQNDPV NDLS VDPGRPÐMÐ GDUEXRWRMÐ DWO\JLQLPDL LQGLYL-

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diklis retai naudojamas.

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Disponuojamosios pajamos 1H YLVRPLV DVPHQLQ¡PLV SDMDPRPLV MÐ JDY¡MDV ODLVYDL GLVSRQXRMD 'DO³

MÐ MLV SULYDORPD WYDUND VXPRND YDOVW\EHL NDLS DVPHQLQ³ SDMDPÐ PRNHVW³ 'LVSRQXR-

164

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NXULDV LQGLYLGDV ãHLPD JDOL ODLVYDL YDUWRWL

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nei analizei. ,â %13 DW¡P WDV GDOLV NXULRV QHDWLWHQND LQGLYLGDPV ãHLPRPV  EHL DVPHQLQ³ SD-

MDPÐ PRNHVW³ LU SULG¡M VRFLDOLQLXV LãPRN¡MLPXV ãHLPRPV EHL LQGLYLGDPV JDXQDPH

GLVSRQXRMDPÐMÐ SDMDPÐ URGLNO³

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• bendrasis nacionalinis produktas; • grynasis nacionalinis produktas; • QDFLRQDOLQ¡V SDMDPRV • DVPHQLQ¡V SDMDPRV • disponuojamosios pajamos. 9LVÐ SHQNLÐ URGLNOLÐ GLQDPLND DSVNDLþLXRWD LOJHVQLDP ODLNRWDUSLXL SUDNWLãNDL \UD

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13.

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lyginus su ankstesniu periodu, o kitu - greitai kyla? .DG DWVDN\WXPH

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pusiausvyros kiekio (realaus nacionalinio produkto) sujungimas vadinamas agregaviPX 3DSUDVWR PDNURHNRQRPLQLR PRGHOLR URGLNOLDL VXGDUR NDLQÐ O\J³ R QH DWVNLURV SUHN¡V NDLQ LU UHDOLM  QDFLRQDOLQ¡V JDP\ERV R QH DWVNLURV SUHN¡V DSLPW³

7RG¡O PDNURHNRQRPLNRMH QDXGRMDPRV YLVXPLQ¡V DJUHJXRWRV SDNODXVRV LU YLVX-

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- YLGXWLQ³ NDLQÐ O\J³ 3 

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166

1 3 N A C IO N A L IN IO P R O D U K T O D IN A M IK A

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9LVXPLQ¡ SDNODXVD - WDL NUHLY¡ NXUL SDURGR VNLUWLQJ SUHNLÐ LU SDVODXJÐ NLHN³ W \ UHDOL QDFLRQDOLQ JDP\ERV DSLPW³ NXUL YDUWRWRMDL ³PRQ¡V LU Y\ULDXV\E¡ SLUNWÐ HVDQW EHW NRNLDP NDLQÐ O\JLXL 7DþLDX NXR PDåHVQLV NDLQÐ O\JLV WXR GDXJLDX UHDODXV QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR QRU¡V ³VLJ\WL ãDOLHV YDUWRWRMDL ³PRQ¡V Y\ULDXV\E¡ WDLS SDW XåVLHQLR SLUN¡MDL ,U DWYLUNãþLDL NXR GLGHVQLV NDLQÐ O\JLV WXR PDåHVQ³ QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR NLHNL MLH QRU¡V SLUNWL .ODVLNLQ¡V NU\SWLHV HNRQRPLVWDL PDQ¡ NDG YLVXPLQLV SHUNDPÐ SUHNLÐ EHL SDVODXJÐ NLHNLV GLG¡MD NULQWDQW EHQGUDP NDLQÐ O\JLXL åU  pav.). .DV OHPLD SDVWDUM³ U\ã³" 6DN\NLPH NDG YLVRV NDLQRV QXNULQWD  7DGD Xå NLHNYLHQ SLQLJLQ³ YLHQHW JDOLPD QXSLUNWL GDXJLDX QHV SDGLG¡MD SLQLJÐ SHUNDPRML JDOLD W \ UHDOXV SUHNLÐ LU SDVODXJÐ NLHNLV NXU³ JDOLPD ³VLJ\WL Xå YLHQ SLQLJLQ³ YLHQHW  6XSUDW  NDG Xå VDYR SLQLJXV JDOL QXSLUNWL GDXJLDX SUHNLÐ åPRQ¡V LU SHUND MÐ GDXJLDX 7DLJL YLVXPLQ¡V SDNODXVRV NUHLY¡ OHLGåLDVL åHP\Q LU ³ GHãLQ  7RNL NUHLY¡V IRUP OHPLD WU\V YHLNVQLDL • SDO ÌNDQÐ QRUPD • PDWHULDOLQ¡V YHUW\E¡V • importas.

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NDQ

QRUPD

13. NACIONALINIO PRODUKTO DINAMIKA

167

GRUDV 7DLJL GLGHVQLV NDLQÐ O\JLV GLGLQD SLQLJÐ SDNODXV .DL SLQLJÐ NLHNLV QHNLQWD SDNODXVRV SDGLG¡MLPDV VPDUNLDL SDGLGLQD SDOÌNDQÐ QRUP (VDQW GLGHO¡PV SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPRPV ³PRQ¡V LU DVPHQ\V VXPDåLQD LãODLGDV W \ JUHLWDL UHDJXRMD ³ SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPRV SDVLNHLWLP 6DN\NLP NDG ILUPD WLNLVL JDXWL  SHOQR LQYHVWLFLQ¡PV SUHN¡PV ³VLJ\WL 6LV SLUNLQ\V MLHPV EXV SHOQLQJDV MHLJX SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPD VXGDU\V SDY\]GåLXL 1%. Bet pirkinys bus QXRVWROLQJDV MHLJX SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPD LãDXJV LNL  '¡O SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPRV SDGLG¡MLPR YDUWRWRMDL QXVSU V QHSLUNWL QDPR DU DXWRPRELOLR 7DLJL SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPRV SDGLG¡MLPDV VXPDåLQV NDL NXULDV ³PRQLÐ LU YDUWRWRMÐ LãODLGDV 9DGLQDVL GLGHVQLV NDLQÐ O\JLV VXPDåLQD UHDODXV QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR SDNODXV Turto poveikis. .LWD SULHåDVWLV QXOHPLDQWL WRNL YLVXPLQ¡V SDNODXVRV NUHLY¡V IRUP \UD WXUWR SRYHLNLV (VDQW GLGHVQLDP NDLQÐ O\JLXL UHDOL YHUW¡ DUED SLUN¡MR SDM¡JXPDV VXNDXSWDV ILQDQVLQLÐ DNW\YÐ SDYLGDOX GDåQLDXVLDL WHUPLQXRWLHML LQG¡OLDL DUba REOLJDFLMRV  VXPDå¡MD 7RNLX DWYHMX J\YHQWRMDL QXVNXUVWD LU WRG¡O JDOLPD WLN¡WLV kad MLH VXPDåLQV VDYR LãODLGDV âHLPD MDXVLV QRUPDOLDL SLUNGDPD QDXM DXWRPRELO³ ar EXUODLYL MHLJX SLUNLQLR SDM¡JXPDV VXGDUR SDY\]Gåiui, 50 000 Lt. Bet jeigu infliacija VXPDåLQV ãLÐ DNW\YÐ SLUNLPR SDM¡JXP LNL   /W ãHLPD JDOL DWVLVDN\WL ãLR SLUNLQLR ,U DWYLUNãþLDL VXPDå¡MXV NDLQÐ O\JLXL UHDOL PDWHULDODXV WXUWR YHUW¡ DUED SLUNLPR SDM¡JXPDL LãDXJV LU LãODLGRV SDGLG¡V Importo poveikis. ,PSRUWDV \UD VYDUEXV YLVXPLQLÐ LãODLGÐ NRPSRQHQWDV ,PSRUWR LU HNVSRUWR NLHNLV SULNODXVR QXR NDLQÐ SDV PXV LU XåVLHQ\MH 7DLJL MHLJX NDLQÐ O\JLV ãDO\MH SDN\OD SDO\JLQXV VX NDLQRPLV XåVLHQ\MH DPHULNLHþLDL YDUWRV GDXJLDX LPSRUWLQLÐ SUHNLÐ 2 XåVLHQLHþLDL SLUNV PDåLDX OLHWXYLãNÐ SUHNLÐ LU WDL VXPDåLQV DPHULNLHWLãNÐ SUHNLÐ HNVSRUW 7LNVOLDX VDNDQW NDL NLWRV VO\JRV VNLUWLQJRV NDLQÐ O\JLR SDNLOLPDV PÌVÐ ãDO\MH SDGLGLQV LPSRUW LU VXPDåLQV HNVSRUW .DUWX VXPDå¡V JU\nojo eksporto kiekis (grynasis eksportas - eksportas - LPSRUWDV ãDOLHV YLVXPLQ¡MH paklausoje. 9DGLQDVL LPSRUWR NDLQÐ O\JLR SDNLOLPDV ãDO\MH VXPDåLQV YLGDXV SUHNLÐ LU SDVODXJÐ YLVXPLQ SDNODXV ,U DWYLUNãþLDL NDLQÐ O\JLR VXPDå¡MLPDV QXOHPLD LPSRUWR VXPDå¡MLP LU SDGLGLQD HNVSRUW NDUWX SDGLGLQGDPDV JU\QRMR HNVSRUWR NLHN³ ãDO\MH .HLQVDV PDQ¡ NDG NDLQÐ O\JLR NLWLPDV šaOLHV YLGXMH SDNHLþLD YDUWRWRMÐ ³PRQLÐ vyriauV\E¡V XåVLHQLR SLUN¡MÐ LãODLGDV NXULÐ G¡ND JDlima prognozuoti realios nacionalLQ¡V gamybos DSLPWLHV SDVLNHLWLP 7DL UHLãNLD NDG NDLQÐ O\JLR SDNLOLPDV NDL NLWRV VO\JRV nekinta, suPDåLQD UHDOL JDP\ERV DSLPW³ ,U DWYLUNãþLDL NDLQÐ O\JLR VXPDå¡MLPDV GLGLQD gamybos apLPW³ 7DL SDURG\WD  SDY SDNODXVRV NUHLY¡V pasislinkimu. Bet jeigu YLHQD DU NHOHWDV ÄOLNXVLDV VO\JDV³ LãVN\U¡ Keinsas.

168

1 3 . N A C IO N A L IN IO P R O D U K T O D IN A M IK A

.DG VXSUDVWXPH NDV SDNHLþLD QDFLRQDOLQLÐ LãODLGÐ DSLPW³  UHLNLD DWVNLUWL QDFLR-

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paklausos veiksniai.

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³

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GHãLQ

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- iš

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VD3. Šis poslinkis rodo, kad

åPRQ¡ V SLUNV PDåLDX SURGXNWÐ QHJX SLUNR DQNVþLDX HVDQW VNLUWLQJDP NDLQÐ O\JLXL .LWDLS VDNDQW JUDILNH SDURG\WL YLVXPLQ¡s

paklausos pasikeitimai atsiranda tada,

NDL NHLþLDVL YLHQDV DU NHOL YHLNVQLDL NXULH DQNVþLDX EXYR ODLNRPL SDVWRYLDLV 9LVXPLQ ¡V SDNODXVRV YHLNVQLDL NXULXRV LãVN\U¡ .HLQVDV SDURG\WL  OHQWHO¡ MH

1 3 .1 /(17(/  .

K E IN S O

V E IK S N IA I

1. A sm en in io v arto jim o išlaid o s 2. ,QYHVWLFLQ¡V LãODLGRV a) SURGXNFLMRV UHDOL]DYLPR VDQW\NLV VX HVDPDLV JDP\ELQLDLV SDM¡JXPDLV b) EÌVLPRV UHDOL]DFLMRV OÌNHVþLDL c) SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPD 3. 9\ULDXV\E¡V LãODLGRV 4. G ryn asis ek sp o rtas: a) SDMDPRV XåVLHQLR ãalyse; b) v aliu to s k u rsas. 1 3 .2

/(17(/  .

V A R T O JIM A S

IR

SANTAUPOS

(M LR D .

LT

ESANT

P A S T O V IO M S

K AIN O M S)

Grynosios

Vartojimo išlaidos C

Santaupos S

pajamos GP A 500 B 1000 C 1500 D 2000

600

-100

1000 1400 1800

+ 100 + 200

• Asmeninio vartojimo išlaidos. niniam vartojimui.

0

Ribinis polinkis

Ribinis polinkis

taupyti

vartoti

> 400:500 = 0,8 > 400:500 = 0,8 > 400:500 - 0,8

> 100:500 - 0,2 > 100:500 - 0,2 > 100:500 = 0,2

3DWL GLGåLDXVLD YLVÐ LãODLGÐ GDOLV WHQND DVPH-

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funkcija parodo, kiek pakinta vartojimo išODLGRV

SDVLNHLWXV JU\QÐMÐ SDMDPÐ NLHNLXL

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Santaupos - grynosios pajamos - vartojimo išlaidos.

13. NACIONALINIO PRODUKTO DINAMIKA

169

1DXGRGDPL ãL O\JWL JDOLPH DSVNDLþLXRWL VDQWDXSÐ G\G³  OHQWHO¡  3DY\]GåLXL ' HLOXW¡MH JU\QRVLRV SDMDPRV VXGDUR  POUG /W R YDUWRMLPDV

- 1800 mlrd. Lt. Vadinasi, santaupos sudarys 200 mlrd. Lt. Tai kiekis, kuris liko po vartojimo. 6DQWDXSÐ NLHNL WDLS SDW JDOLPD QXVWDW\WL UHPLDQWLV YDUWRMLPR WLHVH IXQNFLMD  NXUL SDURG\WD  SDY 1RULQW WDL SDGDU\WL UHLNLD QXEU¡ åWL ƒ NDPSX WLHV Lã QXOLQLR

taško. JeigX

SDY\]GåLXL JU\QRVLRV SDMDPRV VXGDUR  POUG /W WDL YDUWRMLPR Lã-

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išlaidos prilygsta

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sudaro 2000 mlrd.

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180

13. NACIONALINIO PRODUKTO DINAMIKA

F a ktiško s in vesticijos (I) - WDL NLHNLV

NXULV ³ WUDX-

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investicijos apima visas gaP\NOÐ ³UDQJRV QDPÐ VWDW\ERV LQYHVWLFLMDV -RV SDå\P¡WRV /1 DWNDUSRV YLUãXWLQ¡MH GDO\MH

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nori

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Faktiškos investicijos I -

WDL LQYHVWLFLMRV VNLUWRV QDXMRPV JDP\NORPV ³UHQJL-

PDPV LU QDPDPV ³VLJ\WL SHU WDP WLNU ODLN WDLS SDW DWVDUJRPV SDGLGLQWL ýLD ³WUDX-

kiamos visos sukauptos atsargos nepriklausomai nuo to, ar tos atsargos pageidautinos, ar ne. Pageidautinos investicijos I* dar vadinamos planuotomis investicijomis, arba invHVWLFLQH SDNODXVD \UD LQYHVWLFLMRV VNLUWRV QDXMRPV JDP\NORPV ³UHQJLPDPV LU QDPDPV ³VLJ\WL SHU WDP WLNU ODLN WDLS SDW SDSLOGRPRV DWVDUJRV NXULDV JDPLQWRMDL SDJHLGDYR WXU¡WL âLRPV LQYHVWLFLMRPV QHSULNODXVR QHSDJHLGDXWLQÐ DWVDUJÐ NDXSLPDV

NepageiGDXWLQ Ð

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(I)

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181

13. NACIONALINIO PRODUKTO DINAMIKA SLQLJÐ N o rint p aDLãNLQWL NRG¡O SXVLDXVY\UD SDVLHkiama tada, kai santaupos lygios LQYHVWLFLMÐ paklausai, reikia panag,ãODLG

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perka visas pagamintas prekes. *DPLQWRMDL Lã SUDGåLÐ SDUGXRGD SUHNLÐ Xå WDP WLNU VXP 7XRV SLnigus

'DUER XåPRNHVWLV LU NLWRV SDMDPRV

PAV . P $35$67$ 02.   -,0 Ï $3< TAKA (VISOS PAJAMOS IŠLEIDäIAMOS PLATAUS VARTOJIMO XåPRNHVþLR UHQWRV DU NLWÐ SDMDPÐ 35(. 06 %(, 3$6/$8*2MS PIRKTI)

jie

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105

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pavidalu. Be to, gyventojai gautas

SDMDPDV LãOHLGåLD SODWDXV YDUWRMLPR SUHN¡PV SLUNWL YLUãXWLQLV ODQNDV  'DU NDUW JDPLQWRMDL SDUGXRGD SUHNLÐ LU SDVODXJÐ Xå W VXP LU YLVDV SURFHVDV Y¡O SDVLNDUWRja, o

nacionalinis produktas lieka stabilus. %HW DWVLUDQGD NDL NXULÐ VXQNXPÐ 9LHQDV MÐ VXVLM V VX VDQWDXpomis. Sakykim, kad åPRQ¡V QHVXYDUWRMD VDYR SDMDPÐ LU GDO³_ MÐ VXWDXSR 7DGD SODWDXV YDUWRMLPR SUHN¡PV MLH LãOHLGåLD PDåLDX SLQLJÐ *DPLQWRMDL SUHNLÐ JDPLQD Xå W SDþL VXP NDLS LU DQNVþLDX R YDUWRWRMDL GDEDU MÐ QXVLSHUND PDåLDX WRG¡O GDOLV SUHNLÐ OLHNa neparduota. Gamintojai VXPDåLQD JDP\ERV DSLPW³ WRG¡O VXPDå¡MD LU GDUER XåPRNHVWLV LU NLWRV SDMDPRV 9DGLQDVL VDQWDXSRV \UD SLQLJÐ QXWHN¡MLPDV Lã FLUNXOLDFLQLR LãODLGÐ VUDXWR ,ãQDJULQ¡VLPH SDNODXV LQYHVWLFLMRPV

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SD-

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NP Pusiausvyra pasiekiama, kai santaupos susilygina su pageidautinomis investicijomis. Šiuo atveju NXR GDXJLDX ³GHGDPD LQYHVWLFLMÐ WXR GLGHVQLV EXV SDMDPÐ VUDXWDV

(106 pav.). Didesnis srautas skatina GLGHVQ³ SLQLJÐ QXWHN¡MLP ³ VDQtaupas. 'LG¡MDQW SDMDPRPV GLG¡MD ir taupymas. Srautai stabilizuojasi, kai susilygina „injekcijos" ir piQLJÐ QXWHN¡MLPDL

3DMDPÐ LãPRN¡MLPDL 106 PAV. APYTAKA ESANT SANTAUPOMS IR INVESTAVIMUI

1 82

1 3 . N A C IO N A L IN IO P R O D U K T O D IN A M IK A

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kaip ir santaupos esant vi-

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•

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ma pusiausvyrai nustatyti, ir išreiškiama tašku E (103 pav.). • Pusiausvyra pasiekiama, kai faktiškos investicijos (I) susilygina su pageidauWLQRPLV LQYHVWLFLMRPLV 3  W \ NDL DWVDUJRV \UD SDJHLGDXWR O\JLR 1¡ UD QHSD-

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tarasis nustatomai taip: Multiplikatorius - 1/1-RPV.

183

13. NACIONALINIO PRODUKTO DINAMIKA

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ir

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185

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14, CIKLINIAI SVYRAVIMAI

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190

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,QYHVWLFLMÐ VY\UDYLPDV

Investicijos yra itin nesuvaldomas ir didele amplitude kintantis reišNLQ\V 3HU LOJ ODLN JDOLPD QXVWDW\WL NDG LQYHVWLFLMRV VXVLMXVLRV VX EHQGUXRMX QDFLRQDOLQLX SURGXNWX LU NHLþLDVL DWLWLQNDPDL SDJDO MR NLWLP 7DL OHLGåLD GDU\WL LãYDG NDG LQYHVWLFLMRV LU MÐ VY\UDYLPDV ODELDXVLDL OHPLD QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR NÌULPR FLNOXV LU MÐ NRQNUHþLXV SDUDPHWUXV 7RG¡O LQYHVWLFLM Ð YHLNVQ³ UHLNLD SDQDJULQ¡WL DWVNLUDL

14. CIKLINIAI SVYRAVIMAI

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Investicijos ³ gamybos atsargas. .LHNLR DWåYLOJLX JDP\ERV DWVDUJÐ SDSLOG\PDV YLVDGD VXGDUR QHGLGHO GDO³ LQYHVWLFLQLÐ LãODLGÐ 7DþLDX GLGåLXOLV ãLRV UÌãLHV O¡ãÐ MXGUXPDV MÐ NLQWDPXPDV GDUR LQYHVWLFLMÐ DSLPþLDL QHPDå SRYHLN³ 1XVWDW\WD NDG DWVDUJÐ GLQDPLND VXVLMXVL VX SURGXNFLMRV UHDOL]DYLPX $XJDQW SURGXNFLMRV SDUGDYLPXL ILUPRV VLHNLD WXU¡WL GDXJLDX SDUXRãWRV SURGXNFLMRV DWVDUJÐ LU DWYLUNãþLDL âLWDLS SURdukcijos realizavLPR VY\UDYLPDL þLD SDW VXNHOLD LQYHVWLFLMÐ VY\UDYLPXV Investicijos ³ JDP\ERV DWVDUJDV \UD VXVLMXVLRV LU VX SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPD .XR ML DXNãWHVQ¡ WXR EUDQJLDX DWVLHLQD DWVDUJÐ GLGLQLPDV QHV MLV ÄVXULãD SDSLOGRPDV SLQLJLQHV O¡ãDV 7DLJL NXR DXNãWHVQ¡ SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPD WXR VPDUNLDX YHLNLD SDVNDWD QHSO¡VWL DWVDUJÐ ³PRQ¡VH .LQWDQWL SDOÌNDQÐ QRUPD YHLNLD NDLS LQYHVWLFLMÐ ³ DWVDUJDV GLGLQLmo veiksnys. Investicijos ³

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Taip, paveiks. Tai liudija akseleratoriaus principas (ekonomikos moksle jis reišNLD NDG NLHNYLHQDV SDMDPÐ SDNODXVRV DU SURGXNFLMRV SDGLG¡MLPDV DU VXPDå¡MLPDV

194

14 CIKLINIAI SVYRAVIMAI

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bos augimo poveiN³

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principas visada veikia. ËNLQ¡V YHLNORV YHUVOR FLNOR LQGLNDWRULDL $NLYDL]GXV

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at-

(serijomis).

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bet ir tiksliau

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%LXGåHWDV - tai ataskaita, kuri rodo:

• SUD¡MXVLÐ PHWÐ YDOVW\E¡V SDMDPDV LU LãODLGDV • planuojamas (numatomas) pajamas ir išlaidas kitais metais.

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menims. %LXGåHWR EDODQVDV JDOL EÌWL WUHMRSDV

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Ekonomistai iãVSUHQG¡

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Bet antiinfliacinis tokio poveikio efektas priklau-

VR QXR WR NDLS Y\ULDXV\E¡ ML QDXGRV

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augimo ribos, t. y. potencialaus BNP, ir eg-

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atveju turi tiek pat padidinti ir atitinkamas nominalias pajamas. Tam tikru mastu LQGHNVDYLPDV QDXGRMDPDV GDXJHO\MH ãDOLÐ - SLUPLDXVLD SURIVMXQJÐ VXWDUW\VH VX GDUEGDYLDLV G¡O GDUER XåPRNHVþLR LU NLWDLV DWYHMDLV 'DUER XåPRNHVþLR LQGHNVDYLPDV äLQRPL NHOL EÌGDL NDLS GDUEXRWRMDL JDOL DSVLVDXJRWL QXR LQIOLDFLMRV 9LHQDV EÌGDV - LãVLGHU¡WL NDG MÐ XåGDUELDL VXGDUDQW GDUER VXWDUWLV EÌWÐ SULWDLNRPL SULH LQIOLDFLMRV WHPSÐ 3DY\]Gåiui, jei infliacija sudaro 6%, tai UHLN¡WÐ GHU¡WLV G¡O XåGDUELR SDGLGLQLPR  7RNLX DWYHMX 6% ³YHUWLQWÐ LQIOLDFLMRV WHPSXV R  UHLNãWÐ UHDOÐ GDUER XåPRNHVþLR SDGLGLQLP 'DUEXRWRMÐ SRåLÌULX ãLV EÌGDV WXUL YLHQ DLãNÐ WUÌNXP -LV VDXJR WLN QXR LQfliacijos, kurios tikimasi, bet neapsaugo nuo QHWLN¡WRV LQIOLDFLMRV -HL LQIOLDFLMD QHWLN¡-

240

17. NEDARBAS IR INFLIACIJA. STABILIZAVIMO POLITIKA

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17, NEDARBAS IR INFLIACIJA. STABILIZAVIMO POLITIKA

2 41

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pamatys, kad nuosmukio meWX DXWRPRELOLDL SLQJD WDL NDLS WLN WXR PHWX MÐ GDXJLDX ir pirks. Dalyvavimo pelnuose sistema UHLãNLD NDG GDUEXRWRMDL ãDOLD SDJULQGLQLR GDUER XåPRNHVþLR JDXQD GDU LU NRPSDQLMRV SHOQR GDO³

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bet mikroekonominis stimuliavimas. Tokios politikos pranašumas yra tas, kad neV¡NP¡V DWYHMX YLVRV HNRQRPLNRV PDVWX QHLJLDPL SDGDULQLDL MDXþLDPL VLOSQLDX .LWD LQIOLDFLMRV OÌNHVþLÐ VORSLQLPR VO\JD

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!l7. NEDARBAS IR INFLIACIJA. STABILIZAVIMO POLITIKA

2 43

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mastu, o ne kasmet. /DLN\GDPDVLV PRQHWDULVWLQ¡V VWDELOL]DYLPR SROLWLNRV SULQFLSÐ FHQWULQLV EDQNDV WXU¡WÐ QXVWDW\WL SDVWRYL SLQLJÐ SDVLÌORV DXJLPR QRUP DWLWLQNDQþL JDOLP YLGXWLQ³ PHWLQ³ SDMDPÐ DXJLP GDUDQW SULHODLG NDG SDMDPÐ JDY¡MDL QHNHLþLD VDYR SDMDPÐ QDXGRMLPR VWUXNWÌURV 

244

17. NEDARBAS IR INFLIACIJA. STABILIZAVIMO POLITIKA

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18. EKONOMIKOS AUGIMAS t

(NRQRPLNRVDXJLPRHVP¡ Istoriškai ekonomikos augimas gyvuoja

WLN WULV ãLPWXV PHWÐ -R WHP-

SDL SDJUHLW¡MR JDP\ERMH SUDG¡MXV QDXGRWL PDãLQDV R PHLVWUDPV LU DPDWLQLQNDPV QH-

tekus savo darbo statuso. ŠLXRODLNLQLDL technologiniais pakitimais. Ekonomikos augimas -

DXJLPR WHPSDL WDLS SDW VXVLM VX NRQNUHþLDLV

WDL QXRODWLQLV JDP\ERV SDM¡JXPÐ GLG¡MLPDV SDVLUHLãNLDQ-

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grindiniai rodikliai: • realiojo bendrojo nacionalinio produkto (BNP) arba grynojo nacionalinio proGXNWR *13 DXJLPR WHPSDL QXVDNDQW\V NDLS GLG¡MD HNRQRPLNRMH VXNXULDPÐ SUHNLÐ LU WHLNLDPÐ SDVODXJÐ DSLPWLV

•

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•

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tai trumpalaikis augimas. Jei niekas nesikeis, tai vos tik ištekliai baigsis, nu stos augti ir gamyba. • 7DþLDX QHWJL YLVXV LãWHNOLXV LãQDXGRMXV HNRQRPLND JDOL DXJWL 'DUER LU NDSLWDOR GLGLQLPDV LU MÐ SDQDXGRMLPR HIHNW\YXPR GLGLQLPDV VXDNW\YLQV EHQGU JD P\ERV DSLPWLHV DXJLP 7DL YDGLQDPD LOJDODLNLX DXJLPX (NRQRPLNRV

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bus likviduotas,

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246

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5HFHVLQLR WDUSVQLR PDåLQLPDV VXNHOLD YLHQNDUWLQ³ QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR JDP\ERV SDGLG¡MLP ULERMDP JDOLPR QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR DSLPWLPL .LHNYLHQX PRPHQWX JDOLPD QDFLRQDOLQLR SURGXNWR DSLPWLV \UD DLãNLDL DSLEU¡åWD 7HRULãNDL M JDOLPD DSLEÌGLQWL JDP\ERV JDOLP\ELÐ NUHLYH -L JDOL SDNLOWL DXNãW\Q WLN SDGLG¡MXV JDP\ERV YHLNVQLÐ SURGXNW\YXPXL ,OJDODLN³ QXRODWLQ³ HNRQRPLNRV DXJLP VXNHOLD NLWRNLRV SULHåDVW\V - gamybos YHLNVQLÐ SDJULQGLQ¡V MÐ UÌã\V - GDUEDV NDSLWDODV LU åHP¡ DSLPWLHV LU MÐ SURGXNW\YXPR DXJLPDV 0DWXRMDQW LOJDLV ODLNR WDUSDLV YLVL HVPLQLDL ÌNLR SRN\þLDL SULVNLUWLni EÌWHQW ãLHPV YHLNVQLDPV -Ð G¡ND QHWJL VDLNLQJDV HNRQRPLNRV augimas, tarkime, 3%

per metus - per trejus metus padidina nacionalines pajamas dešimtadaliu, o per 24 PHWXV MRV SDGYLJXE¡MD .LWDLS WDULDQW HNRQRPLNRV DXJLPDV \UD LOJDODLNLR ÌNLR SO¡Wros VDY\E¡ DWLWLQNDPDL HNRQRPLNRV DXJLPR WHRULMD WLULD LOJDODLNLXV Srocesus ir atsiriboja QXR WUXPSDODLNL Ð JDP\ERV DSLPWLHV VY\UDYLPÐ (NRQRPLNRV DXJLPDV GDXJLDXVLD \UD VXVLM V VX LQYHVWLFLMRPLV %H WR LQYHVWLFLMRPLV ãLXR DWYHMX ODLN\WLQD QH EHW NRNLD LQYHVWLFLQ¡ YHLNOD NXUL QDFLRQDOLQ¡V VVNDLW\bos skiltyse kvalifikuRMDPD NDLS LQYHVWLFLMRV R WLN WRNLD NXUL Lã WLNUÐM Ð GLGLQD WDX-

tos gamybines galimybes. ,OJDODLNLÐ ODLNRWDUSLÐ SRåLÌULX NLW DVSHNW ²JDXQD LU SDMDPÐ WDXS\PDV QHYDUWRMLPDV  äLQRPH NDG WDXS\PR GDOLHV SDGLG¡MLPDV QDPÐ ÌNLR ãHLPÐ SDMDPRVH SHUNHOLD YDUWRMLPR IXQNFLM åHP\Q WDLJL PDåLQD YLVXPLQ SDNODXV LU SXVLDXVY\URV QDFLRQDOLQ³ SURGXNW 7DL EXYR YDGLQDPDVLV ÄWDXS\PR SDUDGRNVDV 3HU LOJ ODLN YDL]GDV NHLþLDVL - ãHLPÐ VDQWDXSRV VXNXULD O¡ãÐ IRQGXV LQYHVWLFLMRPV Iinansuoti. Kuo dauJLDX WDXSRPD W \ NXR VDQW\NLQDL PDåHVQLV ãHLPÐ HLQDPDVLV YDUWRMLPDV WXR GLGHVQ¡V LQYHVWLFLMRV JDOLPRV YDOVW\E¡MH .XR GLGHVQ¡V LQYHVWLFLMRV WXR GLGHVQL JDP\ERV DXJLPR WHPSDL 9DGLQDVL SHU LOJ ODLN WDXS\PR SDUDGRNVDV QHEHYHLNLD daugiau tauSDQþLRV YLVXRPHQ¡V UDLGD \UD VSDUWHVQ¡

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pitalas -

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Neatkuriamieji ištekliai.

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šalys sunaudos nuro-

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kainos.

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135 pav. Ribinis kapitalo efektyvumas (RKE) keiþLDQWLV LQYHVWLFLMÐ JDOLP\E¡V

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vi! investicij! galimybi!, ribinio kapitalo kreiv" persikelia # dešin$ - iš RKE0 # po to # RKE2. Augantis kapitalas K (investicij! d"ka did"jantis nuo Ko iki Kt ir toliau iki K2) tokiomis s%lygomis duoda atitinkam% pajam! prieaug#. Š# prieaug# nusako trys kapitalo ir išeigos santykio variantai, kuriuos grafike žymi rodykl"s pavidalo kreiv" maž"jan&iu, vienodu ir did"jan&iu santykiu. Skirtingas kapitalo - išeigos santykis grafike matomas kaip skirtingas kapitalo prieaugio dydis esant tokiam pat investicij! galimybi! pasikeitimo mastui, t. y. kaip skirtingi K^-K, ir K^Ka dydžiai esant vienodiems RKE kreiv"s persik"limo dydžiams. 135 pav. a dalis apib'dina pad"t#, kurios laikosi tie ekonomistai, kurie dar link$ pripažinti klasikin# maž"jan&i! pajam! d"sn# net ir tuo atveju, kai sutinka, jog ekonomikos raida kuria papildomas investavimo galimybes. Dalys b ir c orientuotos # mokslo ir technikos pažangos kuriamas investicij! galimybes. Gamybinis kaupimas. Gamybinio (produktyvaus) kapitalo kaupimas buvo ir lieka svarbiausiu gamybos ir nacionalini! pajam! didinimo veiksniu. Kuo daugiau mašin! ir #rengini! naudoja visuomen", kuo didesnis j! kiekis, tenkantis vienam darbuotojui, tuo didesnis nacionalinis produktas. Jei 'kis išlaiko neinfliacin# visišk% užimtum% ir kapitalo-išeigos santykis nekinta, nacionalinio produkto augimo tempai tiesiogiai priklauso nuo gamybinio kapitalo dalies nacionaliniame produkte. Kapitalo kokyb!. Dal# nacionalinio produkto pavertus gamybiniu kapitalu, vis didesn$ reikšm$ turi ne tik jo kiekis (investicij! apimtis), bet ir jo element! technin"s bei ekonomin"s savyb"s (kapitalo kokyb"). Galima #sivaizduoti ekonomikos augim% apskritai be kaupimo, t. y. be gryn!j! investicij!; taip bus, jei susid"v"j$ #rengimai bus atstatomi vien iš amortizacijos fondo l"š!, vietoj sen!j! pastatant naujus, tiek pat kainuojan&ius, bet produktyvesnius. Šiuo atveju savo vaidmen# atlieka mokslo ir technikos pažanga - pl"tojantis mokslui, gamybos priemon"s ir technologija tobul"ja, d"l to tas pats, bet fiziškai atnaujintas kapitalas teikia galimybi! gauti daugiau nacionalinio produkto skai&iuojant kapitalo vienetui. Nemenk% vaidmen# vaidina ir organizaciniai gamybos proces! veiksniai - gamybos ir darbo organizavimas, rinkodaros ir vadybos sistemos. Kapitalo kokyb"s augimo šaknys - mokslo pl"tra. (kin"je veikloje mokslo laim"jimai realizuojami inovacij! forma - kei&iant gamybos procesus pagal mokslo pasi'lytus ir eksperimentine tvarka pademonstruotus principus. Kuo grei&iau inovacijos išplinta tautos 'kyje, tuo labiau teigiamai jos paveikia 'kio rodiklius. (kio pl"tojimasis nesustos tik tuo atveju, jei kaskart vis nauji patobulinimai bus #diegiami # gamyb%. Darbo (darbo j!gos) kokyb! (žmogiškasis kapitalas). Visuomen" realiai skiria dal# savo nacionalinio produkto žmoni! sugeb"jimams ugdyti, lavinti, tobulinti ir realiai sulaukia atitinkamo efekto darbo našumo augimo pavidalu. Taigi išlai-

18. EKONOMIKOS AUGIMAS

251

das švietimui, kvalifikacijai !gyti, sveikatos apsaugai pagristai galima traktuoti kaip investicijas ! žmones, duodan"ias atitinkam# nacionalinio produkto prieaug!. Kuo geresn$ visuomen$s nari% sveikatos b&kl$, tuo daugiau laiko kiekvienas visuomen$s narys per savo darbing# amži% sunaudoja produktyviai. Kuo geresn! išsilavinim# žmogus 'gijo, tuo lengviau jis prisitaik$ prie šiuolaikin$s gamybos reikalavim%. Tiek sveikatos apsaugos, tiek švietimo ir profesinio rengimo s#lyg% gerinimas, žinoma, neapsiribojo teigiamu poveikiu vien ekonomikos rodikliams. Dar svarbesn$ yra j% socialin$ funkcija, kuri# realizuojant maž$ja socialinis visuomen$s nari% susiskaldymas, kyla bendras kult&ros lygis, pla"iau išsiskleidžia žmogaus gyvenimo !vairov$ ir pilnatv$. Darbo (darbo j!gos) kiekis. Darbo j$gos kiekis tiesiogiai priklauso nuo gyventoj% skai"iaus. Šalies gyventoj% skai"ius gali did$ti: • Kai gimimo koeficientas yra didesnis už mirimo koeficient# (tai vadinamasis nat&ralaus gyventoj% prieaugio koeficientas). • Kai imigrant% skai"ius viršija emigrant% skai"i%. Bendras gimimo koeficientas - tai per metus gimusi% gyv% k&diki% skai"ius t&kstan"iui gyventoj%. Bendras mirimo koeficientas - mirusi%j% skai"ius per metus t&kstan"iui gyventoj%. Nat&ralaus gyventoj% prieaugio koeficientas lygus iš gimimo koeficiento at$mus mirimo koeficient#. Vaik% mirties koeficientas - tai skai"ius mirusi% k&diki% (iki vieneri% met%) t&kstan"iui gimusi%j%. Tai svarbus gyvenimo lygio šalyje rodiklis. XX amžiuje Žem$s gyventoj% skai"ius auga labai greitai. Taip yra ne d$l didelio gimim% skai"iaus, bet d$l mirim% skai"iaus sumaž$jimo. Medicinos laim$jimai pad$jo pagerinti gyvenimo sanitarines bei higienos s#lygas. Jei kit% gamybos veiksni% apimtis bei visuomen$s žini% lyg! laikytume nekintamais, tai ekonomika tur$s vienintel! augimo veiksn! - darbo j$gos kiek!. Optimalaus gyventoj% skai"iaus koncepcija neišvengiamai iškelia dvi kitas s#vokas: ekonomika esant perd$tam gyventoj% skai"iui ir ekonomika, kai gyventoj% skai"ius nepakankamas. Pirmuoju atveju turime tok! &k!, kuriame papildomas gyventoj%, o kartu ir darbuotoj% prieaugis sumažina nacionalinio produkto kiek! gyventojui, antruoju - kai gyventoj% prieaugis t# rodikl! padidina. Strukt"riniai požymiai. Padid$j(s &kio dinamizmas išryškina santykinai savarankišk# strukt&rinio veiksnio vaidmen! ekonomikos augimo mechanizmui. Pavyzdžiui, visuotinis, dar tebesit(siantis žem$s &kio bei gavybos pramon$s lyginamojo svorio maž$jimas bendroje gamybos apimtyje ir darbo j$gos išlaisvinimas jose lemia darbuotoj% persik$lim# ! apdorojan"ios pramon$s šakas. Jose darbo našumas yra aukštesnis, tod$l toks &kio strukt&ros besit(siantis pakitimas paspartina ekonomikos augimo tempus.

18. EKONOMIKOS AUGIMAS

251

das švietimui, kvalifikacijai !gyti, sveikatos apsaugai pagr!stai galima traktuoti kaip investicijas j žmones, duodan"ias atitinkam# nacionalinio produkto prieaug!. Kuo geresn$ visuomen$s nari% sveikatos b&kl$, tuo daugiau laiko kiekvienas visuomen$s narys per savo darbing# amži% sunaudoja produktyviai. Kuo geresn! išsilavinim# žmogus !gijo, tuo lengviau jis prisitaik$ prie šiuolaikin$s gamybos reikalavim%. Tiek sveikatos apsaugos, tiek švietimo ir profesinio rengimo s#lyg% gerinimas, žinoma, neapsiribojo teigiamu poveikiu vien ekonomikos rodikliams. Dar svarbesn$ yra j% socialin$ funkcija, kuri# realizuojant maž$ja socialinis visuomen$s nari% susiskaldymas, kyla bendras kult&ros lygis, pla"iau išsiskleidžia žmogaus gyvenimo !vairov$ ir pilnatv$. Darbo (darbo j!gos) kiekis. Darbo j$gos kiekis tiesiogiai priklauso nuo gyventoj% skai"iaus. Šalies gyventoj% skai"ius gali did$ti: • Kai gimimo koeficientas yra didesnis už mirimo koeficient# (tai vadinamasis nat&ralaus gyventoj% prieaugio koeficientas). • Kai imigrant% skai"ius viršija emigrant% skai"i%. Bendras gimimo koeficientas - tai per metus gimusi% gyv% k&diki% skai"ius t&kstan"iui gyventoj%. Bendras mirimo koeficientas - mirusi%j% skai"ius per metus t&kstan"iui gyventoj%. Nat&ralaus gyventoj% prieaugio koeficientas lygus iš gimimo koeficiento at$mus mirimo koeficient#. Vaik% mirties koeficientas - tai skai"ius mirusi% k&diki% (iki vieneri% met%) t&kstan"iui gimusi%j%. Tai svarbus gyvenimo lygio šalyje rodiklis. XX amžiuje Žem$s gyventoj% skai"ius auga labai greitai. Taip yra ne d$l didelio gimim% skai"iaus, bet d$l mirim% skai"iaus sumaž$jimo. Medicinos laim$jimai pad$jo pagerinti gyvenimo sanitarines bei higienos s#lygas. Jei kit% gamybos veiksni% apimtis bei visuomen$s žini% lyg! laikytume nekintamais, tai ekonomika tur$s vienintel! augimo veiksn! - darbo j$gos kiek!. Optimalaus gyventoj% skai"iaus koncepcija neišvengiamai iškelia dvi kitas s#vokas: ekonomika esant perd$tam gyventoj% skai"iui ir ekonomika, kai gyventoj% skai"ius nepakankamas. Pirmuoju atveju turime toki &k!, kuriame papildomas gyventoj%, o kartu ir darbuotoj% prieaugis sumažina nacionalinio produkto kiek! gyventojui, antruoju - kai gyventoj% prieaugis t# rodikl! padidina. Strukt!riniai požymiai. Padid$j's &kio dinamizmas išryškina santykinai savarankišk# strukt&rinio veiksnio vaidmen! ekonomikos augimo mechanizmui. Pavyzdžiui, visuotinis, dar tebesit'siantis žem$s &kio bei gavybos pramon$s lyginamojo svorio maž$jimas bendroje gamybos apimtyje ir darbo j$gos išlaisvinimas jose lemia darbuotoj% persik$lim# ! apdorojan"ius pramon$s šakas. Jose darbo našumas yra aukštesnis, tod$l toks &kio strukt&ros besit'siantis pakitimas paspartina ekonomikos augimo tempus.

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18. EKONOMIKOS AUGIMAS

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19. TARPTAUTIN PREKYBA

19.1. Tarptautin prekyba ir jos privalumai Tarptautin s prekybos ekonomin s prielaidos Kiekvienos didel s ar mažos valstyb s kis yra pasaulinio kio dalis. Jis suprantamas kaip technologini , informacini , ekonomini , ekologini ir kult rini ryši visuma. Pasaulio kis prad jo formuotis tarptautin s prekybos d ka. Kiekvienos šalies nat ralus siekis - gauti ekonomin s naudos iš visuomeninio darbo pasidalijimo tarptautiniuose mainuose. Tiesa, galimas ir visiškas nepriklausomumas nuo užsienio prekybos bei tarptautinio darbo pasidalijimo - autarkijos. Tačiau autarkinis kis yra labiau teorinis nei praktinis klausimas, ypač dabartiniais spartaus ekonomikos augimo ir tarptautini ryši pl tojimo laikais. Šiuo metu vis akivaizdesni tampa tiek santykiniai, tiek absoliut s atskir šali pranašumai tarptautiniame darbo pasidalijime. vairesn ir užsienio prekybos politika. S kmingai funkcionuoja tarptautin s šias problemas sprendžiančios organizacijos. Šiuo metu n viena valstyb negali pasigaminti vis reikmen , reikaling gyventoj poreikiams tenkinti. Taip jau susiklost , kad kiekviena šalis gamina tas prekes, kurias jai apsimoka gaminti. Svarbiausia tarptautini main prielaida yra gamybos s lyg skirtingumas. Prie ši s lyg reikia priskirti: gamtos, klimato, ištekli apr pinimo, specializacijos ir kitas. Antroji tarptautin s prekybos prielaida pasireiškia skirtingais visuomeninio darbo našumo lygiais. Kiekviena pasaulio šalis gamina tai, kas pelninga ir efektyvu. Gaminamos ir eksportuojamos tos prek s, kuri technologijos lygis pralenkia pasaulio šalis. Tai padeda mažinti gamybos kaštus ir konkuruoti pasaulin je rinkoje. Ir atvirkščiai, kiekviena šalis importuoja tas prekes, kuri gamybos kaštai šalies viduje didesni negu pasauliniai tos prek s gamybos kaštai. Trečia tarptautin s prekybos prielaida gl di skoni , polinki , prioritet vairov je. Gamybos kaštai ir kainos gali b ti vienodi, o preki pirk j skoniai gali b ti skirtingi, ir tod l šalys tarpusavyje prekiauja. Jei kitos Šalys vienodos, madingos prek s brangesn s, nors j pagaminimo kaštai vienodi. Tai atskiras šalis skatina vykdyti tarptautin prekyb , tarptautinius mainus. Taip tarpusavyje prekiaujančios Šalys gali patenkinti daugiau ir vairesni poreiki . Antra vertus, Šalys siekia gamybos efektyvumo ir gamina specializuotas prekes. D l to atsiranda darbo našumo ir gamybos kašt skirtumai, o drauge galima gauti absoliuči tarptautin s prekybos naud . Bra-

1 9 . TARPTAUTINE PREKYBA

257

zilija gamina kavos pupeles, kuri 1 centnerio pardavimo kaina - 60 doleri . Kavos pupeli gamybos kaštai yra 120 doleri . Vadinasi, valstyb fermeriui dar sumoka 60 doleri kompensacij už centner . Europoje pagaminama ir parduodama 7 t kstančiai puodeli kavos po 1 doleri ir gaunama 7 t kstančiai doleri . Europos šalys gauna dar ir santykin naud . Taigi galima daryti išvad : • jokia Šalis netur s naudos, jeigu gamins visas reikalingas prekes: • gamtos ir darbo ištekliai bet kuriuo metu yra riboti, tod l pasirenkama efektyviausia gamyba; • preki sraut jud jimas yra priešingas pinigini sraut jud jimui, tod l valiu t keitimo kursai veikia tarptautin s prekybos naud ; • kiekviena pasaulio šalis specializuojasi gaminti pelning , efektyvi prek , kur darbo našumas pralenkia pasaulin lyg . Eksporto didinimas spartina visuminio nacionalinio produkto prieaug , tod l stengiamasi j visokeriopai remti ekonomin mis priemon mis. Prie j priklauso: valstyb s priemokos gamintojams už eksporto prekes; preki pardavimas užsienyje mažesn mis kainomis negu vidaus rinkoje. Labai svarbu ne tik eksportuoti, bet ir importuoti produkcij . Valstyb s naudoja tokias priemones kaip: importo licencijos, importo kvotos ir t. t. Kiekviena šalis, prekiaudama su užsieniu, stengiasi realizuoti savo kio pranašumus. Apie 1/5 pasaulyje sukurtos metin s produkcijos realizuojama per užsienio prekyb . Vakar Europos šalys eksportuoja 25-30% nacionalinio produkto, JAV - 16%, o Taryb S junga eksportuodavo tik 6%, Svarbi užsienio prekybos ypatyb yra ta, kad jos augimo tempai spartesni nei j bendrojo nacionalinio produkto kitimas. Didžiausia (70%) preki apyvartos dalis tenka išsivysčiusioms, apie 20% - besivystančioms ir apie 10% totalitarin ms valstyb ms. Pasaulio užsienio prekyba iš esm s remiasi rinkos ekonomika su visais jai b dingais bruožais. Žvelgiant pasaulio užsienio prekyb nat riniu aspektu, didžiausia ir dinamiškiausi jos dalis yra mašinos ir rengimai. Prieš por dešimtmeči ji sudar penktadal visos užsienio prekybos, o šiuo metu - jau daugiau kaip trečdal . Suprantama, kad ypač didel šios produkcijos r šies dalis yra išsivysčiusi šali eksporte. Pavyzdžiui, Japonijos eksporto strukt roje mašinos ir rengimai sudaro 65%, Vokietijos - 50%, JAV - 40%. Vienu iš svarbiausi mašin ir rengim užsienio prekybos stimul b tina laikyti tarptautin gamybin kooperacij . Neseniai kai kurios detal s ir mazgai buvo eksportuojami tik kaip atsargin s dalys. Šiuo metu jos gavo tvirt komplektuojam j detali status . Nuo 1968 iki 1970 met išsivysčiusi kapitalistini šali mašin gamybos produkcijos eksporte mazg , agregat , detali lyginamasis svoris išaugo nuo 22 iki 47%. Esmin reikšm gauna komplektuojam j rengim tiekimas nauj moni statybai, ypač naujose gamybos šakose. Labai spart s plastmasi ir medikament užsienio prekybos tempai. B tina pabr žti ir smarkiai did jant mokslui imlios produkcijos vaidmen užsienio prekybos ryšiams. Nuolat did ja ir paslaug dalis, kuri šiuo metu jau siekia beveik ketvirtadal bendros užsienio prekybos apimties.

258

19. TARPTAUTIN PREKYBA

Dar palyginti neseniai užsienio prekyba buvo suvokiama kaip paprasta preki ir paslaugu pasikeitimo tarp valstybi visuma. Šiuo metu tai nepalyginti sud tingesnis fenomenas. Jis suvokiamas kaip tarptautini integracini proces svarbiausia sfera. Integracinio pob džio prekybin s operacijos šiuo metu pl tojamos dviem pagrindin mis kryptimis. Pirma, auga tiekimai kooperuojančioms užsienio mon ms, kontroliuojamoms tos pačios korporacijos. Šiuo metu 500 stambiausi tarptautini korporacij vadovauja daugiau nei 30 t kstanči moni vairiose pasaulio šalyse. Antra, stambios kompanijos sudaro ilgalaikes tarpusavio sutartis. Taip konkurentai pasaulin je rinkoje tampa gerais partneriais, bendradarbiaujančiais tiek mokslo, tiek gamybos, tiek ir preki realizavimo sferose. Siekdamos kuo geriau pasinaudoti tarptautinio darbo pasidalijimo privalumais, daugelis šali savo teritorijoje k r ypatingas ekonomines zonas. Čia galima laisvai vežti kapital , statyti gamyklas, samdyti vietinius gyventojus, disponuoti didži ja pagamintos produkcijos ir pelno dalimi. Tokiuose rajonuose tiek importuojamos, tiek eksportuojamos prek s neapmokestinamos, o mon s, naudojančios naujas, perspektyvias technologijas, netgi skatinamos vairiomis ekonomin mis lengvatomis. Dabar pasaulyje yra daugiau kaip 600 toki ypatingos ekonomin s paskirties zon , beveik pus iš j - JAV teritorijoje. Šiose zonose investuojant kapital ekonomin veikl galima gauti kur kas didesn peln . Tai naudinga tiek vienai, tiek kitai pusei. Trumpai apžvelg užsienio prekybos situacij pasaulyje, pabandykime paieškoti atsakymo kelet labai domi klausim . Kod l vienos šalys vienu metu eksportavo vienoki produkcij , o dabar - kitoki ? K dav kai kurioms šalims bandymas atsiriboti nuo užsienio prekybos? Kokiu b du visos šalys gauna naudos iš užsienio prekybos?

Užsienio prekybos lyginamojo pranašumo teorija | š klausim atsako palyginam j kašt teorija. Jos k r jai D. Rikardas ir D. Milis nuosekliai paaiškina, kod l tarptautin specializacija turtina šal ; kaip ir kiekviena teorija, ji teisinga tam tikromis s lygomis. Pabandysime glaustai pateikti šios teorijos esm . Tarkime, kad viena šalis specializuojasi gamyboje ir eksporte toki preki , kurias gali gaminti santykinai mažesniais kaštais. Atvirkščiai elgiamasi tada, kai yra importuojama. Tuomet šalis pasirenka tokias prekes, kuri gamybos kaštai b t santykinai aukštesni palyginti su kit šali kaštais. Santykinai didesnius ar žemesnius kaštus apib dina pasirinktos galimyb s (šanso) kašt s voka. Jie nusako tam tikro pasirenkamo gamybos varianto kaštus kito, alternatyvinio varianto, atžvilgiu. Tokiu atveju, pavyzdžiui, vaizdo grotuvo gamybos kaštai yra toks Švark kiekis, kur reikia paaukoti tam, kad b t pagaminta vienu grotuvu daugiau. Lyginamojo pranašumo teorij iliustruosime pavyzdžiu. Paprastumo d lei paimsime dvi šalis - Lietuv ir Latvij , ir 2 prekes (vaizdo grotuvus ir švarkus). Tarkime,

19. TARPTAUTIN PREKYBA

259

kad efektyvumo lygi skirtum lemia technologija ir darbo našumas, o darbo j ga yra vienintelis gamybos veiksnys. 19.1 lentel je parodyti preki gamybos kaštai. Iš 19.1 lentel s matyti, kad Lietuvoje reikia 30 darbo valand vieno vaizdo grotuvo gamybai ir 5 - vieno švarko gamybai. Latvijoje darbas ne toks našus, tod l vieno vaizdo grotuvo gamyba truks 60 valand , o švarko - 6 valandas. Kadangi m s pavyzdyje darbas yra vienintelis gamybos veiksnys, tai vidutiniai kaštai bus lyg s darbo laiko s naud produkcijos vienetui ir valandinio uždarbio sandaugai. Jei neb t tarptautin s prekybos, kiekviena šalis gamint ir pardavin t prekes pagal kaštus, nurodytus 19.1 lentel je. 19.1 LENTELE. PREKI

GAMYBOS KAŠTAI

Reikia pabr žti, kad Lietuvoje, palyginti su Latvija, darbo poreikis yra kur kas mažesnis abiem prek ms. Tačiau Lietuvoje darbas santykinai našesnis gaminant b tent vaizdo grotuvus, o ne švarkus. Latvijoje vaizdo grotuvo gamyba užtrunka 2 kartus ilgiau nei Lietuvoje, o švarko gamyba 1,2 karto (6:5). Jeigu šalys susitaria prekiauti ir gaminti tas prekes, kurios kainuoja santykinai pigiau, tai jos abi bendrai pa mus pagamins daugiau preki . Kadangi šalys naudoja skirtingas valiutas (litus ir latus), turi b ti kuriama užsienio valiut keitimo rinka ir pasiekiama valiutos kurso pusiausvyra. Paprastumo d lei m s pavyzdyje paliksime nuošaly kapitalo kiek ir darysime prielaid , kad valiutos kurso pusiausvyra užtikrina prekybos s skait balans . Tokiu balansu vadinamas skirtumas tarp preki eksporto ir importo vert s, gal s b ti teigiamas (saldo), kaip m s pavyzdyje, arba neigiamas (deficitinis). 19.2 lentel je parodyti preki kaštai ir kainos t šali valiuta, taip pat kainos latais, esant trims galimiems valiut kursams: 2,5 lito už 1 lat , 2 Lt ir 1,5 Lt už 1 lat . Taip pat matyti, kad vietin s kainos paimtos iš 3 lentel s, o Latvijos preki kain (latais) neveikia valiut kain svyravimai. Aišku, kad, kylant lato kursui, mokama daugiau lit už lat . Tuomet Lietuvos prek s, vertintos latais, yra pigesn s. Pirmuoju valiut kurso atveju Lietuvos vaizdo grotuvai (latais) bus pigesni nei Latvijos, bet švark kainos sutaps. Jei bus keičiama santykiu, didesniu kaip 2,5 Lt už lat , tuomet ir Lietuvos švarkai bus pigesni. Visi Latvijoje nor s pirkti tik lietuviškas prekes, tačiau nepirks vietini . Tuomet vyks vienpus prekyba ir užsienio valiutos rinka negal s išlaikyti pusiausvyros. Trečiuoju atveju viskas atrodys priešingai:

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19. TARPTAUTINE PREKYBA

Lietuvos švarkai (latais) bus brangesni nei latvi , o vaizdo grotuv kainos sutaps. Keičiant santykiu, mažesniu nei 1,5 Lt už lat , abi lietuviškos prek s (latais) bus brangesn s ir Latvijoje niekas j nenor s pirkti. 19.2

LENTEL

. KAŠTAI,

KAINOS,

VALIUTOS KURS

Vietin s kainos šalies valiuta Prek s:

vaizdo grotuvai

Lietuvos Latvijos

švarkai 30 12

180 120

PUSIAUSVYRA IR DIAPAZONAS

Kaštai latais, kai valiut kursai:

vaizdo grotuvai

švarkai

vaizdo grotuvai

švarkai

12 12

90 120

15 12

72 120

vaizdo grotuvai

švarkai

120 120

20 12

Užsienio valiut keitimo rinkoje gali b ti pusiausvyra tik tuomet, jei Latvijos importo vert , taigi ir poreikis litais, už kuriuos ji gal s tai sigyti, bus lygi Latvijos eksporto vertei ir tuo pačiu lit pasi lai. Mat latviai eksportuoja, nori paversti savo pajamas latais. Vadinasi, aukščiausias galimas valiut pusiausvyros kursas yra pirmuoju atveju - 2,5 Lt UŽ lat , kai viena latvi prek (švarkai) yra dar konkurencin Lietuvos prekei (švarkams), o žemiausias kursas - trečiuoju atveju - 1,5 Lt už lat , kai vienos Lietuvos prek s (vaizdo grotuvai) yra dar konkurencin s latvi prek ms (vaizdo grotuvams). 19.3 lentel je palygintos Lietuvos ir Latvijos preki gamybos s naudos ir kaštai. Su mažesn mis darbo valand s naudomis Lietuva turi absoliut pranašum abiej preki gamyboje. Palyginamajam pranašumui nustatyti galima imti tiek darbo valand s naudas, tiek galimyb s kaštus. Paimkime darbo valand s naudas. Palyginti su Latvija, lietuviams reikia kur kas mažiau darbo valand gaminant vaizdo grotuvus negu švarkus. Lietuva turi palyginam j pranašum vaizdo grotuv , o Latvija švark atžvilgiu. Kada lyginame galimyb s kaštus, gauname, kad Lietuva per 30 vai. netekusi 6 švark , pagamina 1 grotuv . Dar paprasčiau tariant, 6 Švarkai kainuoja 180 Lt, o tai yra vieno vaizdo grotuvo kaina. Pastarojo galimyb s kaštai yra 6 Lietuvos švarkai arba 10 latvi švark . Tačiau iš 19.3 lentel s matyti, kad švarko galimyb s kaštai Latvijoje (1/10 vaizdo grotuvo) yra mažesni nei Lietuvoje (1/6 vaizdo grotuvo). Taigi darome išvad , kad Lietuva turi palyginam j pranašum vaizdo grotuv gamyboje, o Latvija - švark . 19.3

LENTEL

. PREKI

GAMYBOS S NAUD

IR KAŠT

PALYGINIMAS

Lietuvos prek s

Latvijos prek s

darbo valand s naudos (DVS)

darbo kaštai (DK)

galimyb s kaštai (GK)

darbo valand s naudos (DVS)

darbo kaštai (DK)

galimyb s kaštai (GK)

Vaizdo grotuvai

30 vai.

18 Lt

6 švarkai

60 vai.

120 lat

10 švark

Švarkai

5 vai.

30 Lt

1/6 vaizdo g.

6 vai.

12 lat

1/10 vaizdo g.

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19. TARPTAUTINE PREKYBA

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• Nepriklausomi plaukiojantys kursai. Nepriklausomas valiutos kursas remiasi vadinamuoju separatiniu valiutos plauNLPX NDL MR NXUVDV VXVLGDUR SULNODXVRPDL QXR GHYL]Ð SDVLÌORV LU SDNODXVRV

rinkoje santykio. Si sistema vadinama „valdomu" plaukiojimu, nes valiutos kurVDV VXVLGDUR QH WLN YHLNLDQW ULQNRV M¡JRPV EHW LU ³VLNLãDQW FHQWULQLDPV EDQNDPV âL YDOLXWRV NXUVR UÌã³ SLUPLDXVLD SDQDXGRMD ODELDXVLDL LãVLY\VþLXVLRV ãDO\V -$9 .DQDGD 'LGåLRML %ULWDQLMD NDL NXULRV 23(. âDO\V - Kataras, Sau-

do Arabija, Indija. • Bendri plaukiojantys kursai. Daugiausiai tokia sistePD QDXGRMDPD

(XURSRV YDOLXWLQ¡MH VLVWHPRMH - atsiskaiW\PDPV WDUSXVDY\MH ãDO\V QDXGRMD ILNVXRWXV YDOLXWRV NXUVXV VX DSLEU¡åWD VY\UDYLPÐ ULED .LWÐ ãDOLÐ DWåYLOJLX ãLÐ YDOVW\ELÐ YDOLXWRV SODXNLRMD W \ WDLNR SULQFLSXV EÌGLQJXV SLUPRV JUXS¡V YDOVW\E¡PV

• Netiesiogiai susijusieji valiutos kursai. âLDL YDOLXWRV NXUVR UÌãLDL EÌGLQJDV EUXRåDV - QXVWDW\WL JULHåWDL ILNVXRW G\G³ YLHQRV Lã YDGRYDXMDQþLÐ ãDOLHV YDOLXWRV DWåYLOJLX 7DL ODELDXVLDL SULNODXVRPDV YDOLXWRV NXUVDV LU M ³ QDXGRMD EHYHLN SXV ¡ 79) QDUL Ð 3ULH -$9 GROHULR SULULãWRV (JLSWR /LEHULMRV 3LHWÐ .RU¡MRV 3DNLVWDQR LU NLWÐ ãDOLÐ YDOLXWRV 3ULH IUDQNR SULULãWRV ãDO\V ³HLQDQþLRV ³ 9DNDUÐ $IULNRV HNRQRPLQ EHQGULM  LU &HQWULQ $IULNRV V  MXQJ   ² VYDU  VWHUOLQJÐ RULHQWXRMDVL *DELMD LU NW

• Krepšiu susijusieji valiutos kursai. Šie kursai numato santykinai SDR krepšio arba kito dirbtinai kontroliuojamo YDOLXWLQLR NUHSãLR ILNVXRW YDOLXWRV NXUV 3ULH 6'5 NUHSãLR SULULãWRV *YLQ¡MRV .HQLMRV =DLUR LU NW YDOLXWRV .LWÐ YDOLXWÐ NRPELQDFLMDV QDXGRMD $Xstri•

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kai skirtingose šalyse yra labai skirtingi infliacijos tempai. Realiosios deformacijos EÌQD WDGD NDL SDVDXOLQLV ÌNLV SDWLULD GLGåLXOLXV UHDOLXV VXNU¡WLPXV SDY\]GåLXL NHWXUJXE QDIWRV NDLQÐ SDGLG¡MLP 9LHQDV Lã ILNVXRWÐ YDOLXW Ð NXUVÐ UHåLPR WUÌNXPÐ \UD WDV NDG ãLV UHåLPDV YLVLãNDL DWPHWD YDOLXWRV NXUVR NHLWLPR JDOLP\E LãVN\UXV DWVLWLNWLQLXV DWYHMXV  9DGLQDVL ãL VLVWHPD QHJDOL SULVLWDLN\WL SULH QRPLQDOLÐMÐ DU UHDOLÐMÐ GHIRUPDFLMÐ 6DO\V NXULRVH LQIOLDFLMRV WHPSDL \UD DXNãWHVQL QHJX MÐ WDUSWDXWLQLÐ NRQNXUHQWÐ ODLSVQLãNDL tDSV PDåLDX SDM¡JLRV NRQNXUXRWL WDUSWDXWLQ¡VH ULQNRVH 7RNLRV ãDO\V SULYDO¡V Y\NG\ti JULHåW YLGDXV PRQHWDULQ LU ILVNDOLQ SROLWLN NDG VXPDåLQWÐ LQIOLDFLMRV WHPSXV SDO\JLQXV VX NLWRPLV SDVDXOLR YDOVW\E¡PLV DUED Y\NG\WL YDOLXWRV GHYDOYDFLM NDG DWsisWDW\WÐ YDOLXWRV NXUVDV LNL MR SHUNDPRVLRV JDOLRV SDULWHWR O\JLR ,U MHLJX WRMH ãDO\MH LQIOLDFLMRV WHPSDL LãOLNV DXNãWHVQL QHJX NLWRVH YDOVW\E¡VH MRV QRU¡GDPRV LãODLN\WL VDYR WDUSWDXWLQ ³ NRQNXUHQFLQJXP  WXU ¡V UHJXOLDULDLV LQWHUYDODLV NDUWRWL GHYDOYDFLM. 9DGLQDVL LãVN\UXV DWYHMXV NDL ãDO\V Y\NGR WRNL YLGDXV PRQHWDULQ SROLWLN NXUL VXNHOLD QHYLHQRGXV LQIOLDFLMRV WHPSXV ILNVXRWÐ YDOLXWRV NXUVÐ VLVWHPD QHJDOL VXVLGRURWL VX GHIRUPDFLMRPLV 7RG¡O HVDQW ILNVXRWÐ NXUVÐ UHåLPXL YLHQRV ãDO\V WXU¡MR reguOLDULDL Y\NG\WL YDOLXWÐ GHYDOYDFLM R NLWRV - UHYDOYDFLM -HLJX ãLH YDOLXWÐ NXUVÐ UHJXOLDYLPDL NDUWRMDVL GDåQDL MLH åOXJGR ILNVXRWÐ YDOLXWÐ NXUVÐ VLVWHP .DGDQJL ILNVXRWÐ YDOLXWÐ NXUVÐ VLVWHPD QHJDO¡MR VXVLGRURWL VX QRPLQDOLRVLRPLV LU UHDOLRVLRPLV SDVDXOLR ÌNLR GHIRUPDFLMRPLV ML EXYR SDNHLVWD SODXNLRMDQþLÐMÐ YDOLXWÐ NXUVÐ VLVWHPD 6L VLVWHPD EXYR SDM¡JL ³YHLNWL WXRV GLGåLXOLXV VPÌJLXV NXULXRV SDW\U¡ SDVDXOLQLV ÌNLV ãLR DPåLDXV DãWXQWDMDPH GHãLPWPHW\MH 9\UDXMD QXRPRQ¡ NDG YLHQDV Lã SODXNLRMDQþLÐMÐ YDOLXWÐ NXUVÐ UHåLPR WUÌNXPÐ -jo \SDWLQJDV QHSDVWRYXPDV  SDY SDURG\WDV GROHULR LU VYDUR VWHUOLQJÐ YDOLXWRV NXUVÐ NLWLPDV HVDQW SLDXNORMDQWLHVLHPV YDOLXWÐ NXUVDPV SUDGHGDQW QXR  P ^ÄQDItos NDLQÐ  PHW Ð  7DLS SDW WDLV PHWDLV EXYR DWVLVDN\WD ILNVXRW Ð NXUV Ð UHåLPR

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skolintis ir finansuoti

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Vudso institucijomis.

21.1. Tarptautinis valiutos fondas ir kitos WDUSWDXWLQ¡VUHJLRQLQ¡VYDOLXWLQ¡VNUHGLWLQ¡V EHLILQDQVLQ¡VRUJDQL]DFLMRV Tarptautinis valiutos fondas (TVF) -

WDL LQVWLWXFLMD ³ N ÌQLMDQWL %UH-

WRQR 9XGVR VLVWHP 6L VLVWHPD MXULGLQLX DVSHNWX ODEDL VNLULDVL QXR DXNVR LU DXNVR GHYL]Ð VWDQGDUWÐ QHV DQNVWHVQ¡V VLVWHPRV QHWXU¡MR WDUSWDXWLQLR MXULGLQLR SDJULQGR

TVF -

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valiutos ir kredito organizacija, skirta valiutiniams san-

W\NLDPV WDUS YDOVW\ELÐ UHJXOLXRWL LU VXWHLNWL WUXPSDODLNLÐ NUHGLWLQLÐ LãWHNOLÐ HVDQW YDOLXWLQLDPV VXQNXPDPV VXVLMXVLHPV VX PRN¡ MLPR EDODQVÐ QHWRO\JXPX 79) SUDG¡MR VDYR RSHUDFLMDV  P NDLS VSHFializuotas

SNO organas. 44 pasauOLR ãDO\V WDUSWDXWLQ¡MH YDOLXWLQ¡MH LU ILQDQVLQ¡MH NRQIHUHQFLMRMH  P %UHWRQR 9XGVH SDVLUDã¡ VXVLWDULP YDOLXWLQLÐ RSHUDFLMÐ NODXVLPDLV ,NL  P YLVRV 79) RSHUD-

286

21. TARPTAUTINE PINIGU SISTEMA

FLMRV EXYR Y\NGRPRV -$9 GROHULDLV R Y¡OLDX - 6'5  P SUDGåLRMH IRQGR NDSLWDODV VXGDU¡  POUG 6'5 âLXR PHWX  6'5 O\JXV  GRO 'HãLPW LãVLY\VþLXVLÐ ãDOLÐ YDOGR  YLVÐ NYRWÐ EHQGUR G\GåLR LU WXUL EHYHLN  EDLVÐ )RQGR YDOG\PR organuose. JAV dalis TVF kapitale 1947- P VXPDå¡MR QXR  LNL  R EHQGUDPH EDOVÐ VNDLþLXMH - QXR  LNL  WDþLDX -$9 WXUL YHWR WHLV VSUHQGåLDQW svarbiausius klausimus. 1988 m. TVF nariai buvo 151 šalis, TVF vadovaujantis organas - 9DOG\WRMÐ WDU\ED NXUL UHQNDVL NDUW SHU PHWXV ³ MRV VXG¡W³ ³HLQD YLVÐ ãDOLÐ DWVWRYDL 9\NGRPDVLV organas - GLUHNFLMD NXUL VXGDUR  QDULDL SDVNLUWL ãDOLÐ WXULQþL Ð GLGåLDXVLDV NYRWDV LU  QDULÐ LãULQNWÐ SDJDO JHRJUDILQ³ SRå\P³ 3DVWDUDVLV RUJDQDV \UD 79) 9DOG\WRMÐ WDU\ERV ODLNLQDVLV NRPLWHWDV ³ NXULR VXG¡W³ ³HLQD  ãDOLÐ ILQDQVÐ PLQLVWUDL TVF vieta - 9DãLQJWRQDV 7DL DWVSLQGL -$9 YDGRYDXMDQWL YDLGPHQ³ MR YHLNORMH Kiekviena 79) âDOLV QDU¡ WXU¡MR QXVWDW\WL VDYR YDOLXWRV SDULWHW SDJDO DXNV DUED SDJDO -$9 GROHU³ 9¡OHVQLHML YDOLXWÐ SDULWHWÐ SDVLNHLWLPDL WXU¡MR EÌWL VXGHULQWL DUba patvirtinti TVF. )RQGR LãWHNOLDL IRUPXRMDPL Lã SDJULQGLQLR NDSLWDOR LU NDXSLPR .XULDQW )RQG Euvo QXPDW\WD NDG MR NDSLWDODV EXV  POUG -$9 GROHULÐ ² 79) VWRMDQþLRV ãDO\V WXU¡MR SDSLOG\WL MR NDSLWDO DWLWLQNDPD VXPD - NLHNYLHQRV ãDOLHV SDVLUDã\WX NDSLWDOR ³QDãX DUED NYRWD 6L VXPD DSVNDLþLXRMDPD SDJDO IRUPXO  ³ NXUL ³UDã\WD ãDOLHV GDOLV SDsaXOLQLDPH LPSRUWH LU MRV DXNVR DWVDUJRV 9LHQDV NHWYLUWDGDOLV NLHNYLHQRV ãDOLHV ³QDãR EXYR PRNDPD DXNVX R NLWL WU\V NHWYLUWDGDOLDL VDYR YDOLXWD QHGXRGDQþLD SDOÌNDQÐ QHWHUPLQXRWR ³VLSDUHLJRMLPR IRUPD .YRWD WXUL WULJXE UHLNãP QXVWDWDQW • ³ QDãÐ G\G³ ³ ³ VWDWLQ³ NDSLWDO   • âDOLHV EDOVÐ NLHN³ VSUHQGåLDQW NODXVLQLXV YDOG\PR DSDUDWH • 79) LãWHNOLÐ SDQDXGRMLPR OLPLW 3HU 79) HJ]LVWDYLP NYRWRV NHLW¡VL GDXJLDX NDLS  NDUWXV $QNVþLDX NYRWRV EXYR SHUåLÌULPRV NDV SHQNHUL PHWDL R GDEDU ãLV NYRWÐ NHLWLPR ODLNotarpis sutrumpintas LNL WUHMÐ PHWÐ .YRWÐ QXVWDW\PR NULWHULMDL \UD ãDOLHV HNRQRPLQLV SRWHQFLDODV LU YLHWD SDVDXOLQ¡MH HNRQRPLNRMH 'LGåLDXVLDV NYRWDV )RQGR NDSLWDOH WXU¡MR -$9   ((% šalys (27,9%). 1XR NYRWRV G\GåLR SULNODXVR LU EDOVÐ NLHNLV NXULXRV WXUL ãDOLV QDU¡ VSUHQGåLDQW )RQGR NODXVLPXV .LHNYLHQD ãDOLV WXUL  EDOVÐ LU GDU YLHQ EDOV Xå NLHNYLHQ NYRW 'DXJLDXVLD EDOVÐ WXUL -$9 -  'LGåLRML %ULWDQLMD - 6,7%, Vokietija - 5,8%, 3UDQFÌ]LMD - 4,8%, Japonija - 4,6%. TVF regXOLXRMD QH WLN YDOLXWRV VLVWHP EHW LU NRRUGLQXRMD WDUSWDXWLQ³ NUHGLWDYLP 3DJULQGLQLV WDUSWDXWLQLV NUHGLWDYLPR RUJDQDV \UD 7DUSWDXWLQLV UHNRQVWUXNFLMRV LU SO¡WURV EDQNDV 753%  7DL SLUPDVLV WDUSYDOVW\ELQLV LQYHVWLFLQLV LQVWLWXWDV ³NXUtas kartu su TVF. TRPB tikslas - DNXPXOLXRWL YDOVW\ELÐ ELXGåHWLQHV O¡ãDV LU VNDWLQWL SULYDþLDV LQYHVWLFLMDV NLWRVH ãDO\VH %DQNR QDULDLV JDOL EÌWL WLN âDO\V ³VWRMXVLRV ³ 79) 6L QXRVWDWD DLãNLQDPD WXR NDG EDQNR ãDO\V QDU¡V SULYDOR Y\NG\WL YDOLXWLQ LU ILQDQVLQ SROLWLN SDJDO 79) ³VWDWXV 753% ³VWDWLQLV NDSLWDODV VXGDURPDV DNFLMRPLV .UHGLWDL VXWHLNLDPL ãDOLPV NXULRV DWVNOHLGåLD SODþL LQIRUPDFLM HNRQRPLQ¡PV EDQNR PLVLMRPV DSLH ãDOLHV HNRQRPLQ LU

21. TARPTAUTINE PINIGU SISTEMA

287

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metiniai procentai pasaulinio skolinamojo kapitalo rinkoje. $QWUD VYDUEL 7). \SDW\E¡ SDVLUHLãNLD WXR NDG ãL NRUSRUDFLMD WXUL WHLV QH WLN VXWHLNWL SDVNRODV EHW LU WLHVLRJLDL Y\NG\WL LQYHVWLFLMDV ³ DNFLQ³ NDSLWDO VWDWRPÐ DUED UHNRQVWUXRMDPÐ ³PRQLÐ R Y¡OLDX SDUGXRWL MÐ DNFLMDV SULYDWLHPV LQYHVWXRWRMDPV .UHGLWLQLÐ LU ILQDQVLQLÐ LãWHNOLÐ UHJXOLDYLPR IXQNFLMDV Y\NGR UHJLRQLQLDL SO¡WURV EDQNDL 3ULH MÐ SULVNLULDPL $]LMRV SO¡WURV EDQNDV $]3%  $PHULNRV SO¡WURV EDQNDV $3% LU $IULNRV SO¡WURV EDQNDV $I3%  âLÐ EDQNÐ \SDWXPDV \UD MÐ U\ã\V VX -72 UHJLRQLQ¡PLV HNRQRPLQ¡PLV NRPLVLMRPLV %DQNÐ ³VWDWLQLV NDSLWDODV IRUPXRMDPDV iš ³QDãÐ LU DNFLQ¡V YHLNORV 6YDUELD YDOLXWRV LU NUHGLWR EHL ILQDQVLQH RUJDQL]DFLMD 9DNDUÐ (XURSRMH tampa EuURSRV HNRQRPLQ ¡ EHQGULMD ((%  DUED Ä%HQGURML ULQND ³ NXUWD  P SDVLUD ãLXV VXWDUW³ 5RPRMH ² ((% ³HLQD  (XURSRV ãDOLÐ %HOJLMD ,WDOLMD /LXNVHPEXUJDV 2ODQGLMD 9RNLHWLMD 3UDQFÌ]LMD 'DQLMD $LULMD 'LGåLRML %ULWDQLMD *UDLNLMD ,VSDQija

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kia priskirti: • NRPSHQVDFLQHV ULQNOLDYDV NXULRV VXVLGDUR LPSRUWXRMDQW åHP¡V ÌNLR SURGXNFLM • •

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Kitos pajamos Absoliuti suma mln. EKIU

8,9 23,2 64,8 3,1 36 168

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2005 01 18. 23,25 sp. L Išleido leidykla Ä(XJULPDV âLOXW¡V J D /7-08212 Vilnius

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