Warming to Ecocide: A Thermodynamic Diagnosis

Warming to Ecocide Alan J. Sangster Warming to Ecocide A Thermodynamic Diagnosis 123 Alan J. Sangster Heriot-Watt...

48 downloads 787 Views 3MB Size Report

This content was uploaded by our users and we assume good faith they have the permission to share this book. If you own the copyright to this book and it is wrongfully on our website, we offer a simple DMCA procedure to remove your content from our site. Start by pressing the button below!

Report copyright / DMCA form

DOWNLOAD PDF

Warming to Ecocide

Alan J. Sangster

Warming to Ecocide A Thermodynamic Diagnosis

123

Alan J. Sangster Heriot-Watt University School of Engineering and Physical Science EH14 4AS Edinburgh UK e-mail: [email protected]

ISBN 978-0-85729-925-3 DOI 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0

e-ISBN 978-0-85729-926-0

Springer London Dordrecht Heidelberg New York British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of licenses issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms should be sent to the publishers. The use of registered names, trademarks, etc., in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. Cover design: eStudio Calamar S.L. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

To Eilidh-Rose Regrettably, my generation has treated Earth as if we were just passing through: hopefully your generation will set about taking up permanent residence.

Preface

Global warming, which is now suspected to be of anthropogenic origin, is a thermal phenomenon, and as such is subject to the laws of thermodynamics. These laws which were formulated over 150 years ago, have been well tried and tested over the intervening years. So much so, that scientists would judge, that they have been established, to a level and to a degree of solidity, which is little different to the laws of gravity. Given this very reliable instrument the aim of this book is to examine the extent to which planetary warming can be explained by thermodynamic principles. Perhaps I should profess, that although like all scientists and engineers I have obviously studied thermodynamics, I am not a thermodynamicist. My speciality is electromagnetism and electromagnetic waves. However, in pursuing research in this area, it is just not possible to address radar and communications problems raised by the propagation, confinement and manipulation of high power radio waves, without resorting to thermodynamics, and I have been obliged to do so on many occasions. The differential equations used in thermodynamic modelling are remarkably similar to those found in electromagnetism probably because James Clerk Maxwell contributed tellingly to both topics. In fact, most electromagnetic specialists would probably aver that so much of modern thermodynamics, at the theoretical level, is replicated in electromagnetics that once one gets to grips with the jargon and the e-words of thermodynamics, namely, entropy, enthalpy, exergy energy, efficiency and equilibrium, a decent level of competence can soon be acquired. So I do not feel too unqualified to write a book, which is predominantly thermodynamic in character, and in which I review and assess, both traditional and modern aspects of the subject. My aim in the ensuing chapters is to describe and illustrate the power of thermodynamics to furnish insights into the thermal behaviour of complex physical systems including living organisms (for example a leaf of a horse chestnut tree in summer converting incident solar rays into biomass) that burn energy and dissipate potential gradients. In so doing the book will attempt to broach a question which has become central to our times. It is namely this. Is our species culpable and deserving of censure, in relation to the recent onset of climate change? Are we poisoning the biosphere and wilfully terminating mankind’s sojourn on planet vii

viii

Preface

Earth? Are we committing ecocide? It is clear that mankind’s industrialisation, globalisation and exploitation proclivities are a contributory source of the problem of the ‘global greenhouse’, but was it inevitable or could we have averted or ameliorated it, much earlier. Also, is mankind capable of avoiding runaway climate change by reinstating the greenhouse thermostat to its full operational capacity? This issue will also be addressed. My previous book (‘‘Energy for a Warming World’’), which is directed at a related topic, considers the possibility that global warming could be forestalled if a rapid transition to renewable sources of energy were to be initiated now. In it I was prompted to observe that technology alone, no matter how good, is not capable of providing a cure for our feverish planet. I suggested that this is because we are seemingly paralysed by an inescapable paradox. As arguably the most successful species on the planet we have actually become too successful. There are now too many of us and we are, as a result, relentlessly despoiling the only habitat we will ever have. Despite the bountifulness of the planetary home, and despite the opportunities presented to mankind through science and engineering, the indications are that, because of ancient and ingrained habits, we are probably fated to fail to grasp them. Mankind’s tragedy is that notwithstanding all the possibilities that seem to exist to secure the future, provided we act quickly, we are unlikely to avail ourselves of them, because we appear to be trapped and immobilised by history, beliefs, misconceptions and ignorance. I then jokingly suggested that this tragedy would have been well understood by that renowned engineering cynic Edward A. Murphy Jr., who has evidently cogitated long and hard on the incompatibility of humans and complex systems. As an applied scientist it is intriguing to me that, one of the laws of thermodynamics, the second law, which implacably predicts progressive decay, and eventual death for the universe and all systems within it, is thought to be the stimulation, or inspiration, for a cynical, yet perceptive, collection of humorous epigrams, usually referred to as Murphy’s Laws. Most people in the English speaking industrial world will probably have encountered them, in one form or another, for example: When working toward the solution of a problem, it always helps if you know the answer

and It is impossible to make anything foolproof because fools are so ingenious.

Although in some quarters it is quite likely that Murphy’s more pithy witticisms are erroneously and unforgivably attributed to a certain cynic named Sod. Other parts of the world no doubt have equivalent forms of his perceptive truisms. The Chinese have the sayings of Confucius, which have Murphy like echoes—or should that be the other way round? The laws have evolved to the point where they are now accepted as giving expression to the unfortunate penchant of human beings to make ill judged or inappropriate choices, which then lead to the unnecessary failure of complex systems. The disastrous nuclear reactor meltdown at Chernobyl is a particularly notorious example, and the recent oil spill in the Gulf

Preface

ix

of Mexico is likely to become another one. Of the many renditions of the laws, probably the most familiar is: if something can go wrong, then inevitably it will.

Which has echoes of the second law. All trades and professions seem to have developed Murphyisms which are specific to their particular endeavour, with many of these becoming much more widely known since the spread of the internet and ‘blogs’. It goes without saying that a version of Murphy’s Law can be identified for almost any elaborate event where a disaster, catastrophe, calamity or debacle has the potential to occur, as a result of human intervention. The laws tellingly reflect the cynicism of a world weary observer of human nature—presumably emanating from the wide experience of Murphy and his collaborators. They are essentially a reflection of the not uncommon observation that when human intercessions occur, they inevitably seem do so with one or more individuals choosing, or conspiring, to exercise one or all of the following guaranteed routes to system failure: by exercising insufficient care, by displaying an absence of diligence, by applying precious little intelligence, by making decisions on the basis of sparse knowledge and understanding, by being brainwashed with inappropriate or useless knowledge and hence failing to act rationally. Murphy-like decision making has recently entered the global warming arena in relation to accelerating the development of renewables. A 2006 UK policy encouraged us to switch to biofuels—diesel or alcohol made from plants. By 2010, the government wanted 5% of all our transport fuels to be made this way. By 2020, the European Union wanted to raise this to 20%. But there are two massive problems, which the UK government, entrepreneurs and advocates of the policy, consistently failed to acknowledge, but which should have rung ‘Murphian alarm bells’. Firstly, global population is expanding massively, and all arable land will soon be totally committed to food production. Secondly, this means that the production of bio-fuels will obviously and very quickly be in direct competition with the production of food. A study conducted in 2006 by Sarasin, the Swiss bank, placed ‘‘the present limit for the environmentally and socially responsible use of biofuels at roughly 5% of current petrol and diesel consumption in the European Union and United States’’. Already, when only a tiny fraction of our transport fuel comes from plants, the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation reports that the demand for bio-fuels has helped to cause a ‘‘surge in the prices of cereals’’ to ‘‘levels not seen for a decade.’’ All over the world, this ill thought through policy has inevitably hit the poor, and quite unnecessarily, if Murphy avoiding applications of sound knowledge and intelligent cogitation had been employed in advance. Fortunately, common sense has prevailed and the policy has since been curtailed to a very significant extent. Allusions to Murphy appear sporadically throughout the book when this applied scientist/engineer is confronted with decision making and developments, which exhibit markers redolent of perverse and irrational human behaviour. Needless to say Murphy, with his seemingly profound knowledge of human nature, would probably conclude that our accident prone species has truly

x

Preface

‘screwed up’ the life-support systems of space-ship Earth. Mankind, he would assert, has dumbly precipitated, seemingly with little warning and apparently quite unforeseen by the vast majority of the populace, the potential failure of the ultimate complex system for life on Earth, namely our planetary eco-system. Is he correct? Have we foolishly instigated the looming disaster of run-away global warming, which possesses the latent possibility of propelling Earth towards a hot epoch which may be inimical to life as we know it? Some suggest that we may be initiating processes that could see it deteriorating prematurely into a lifeless Venus like orb. By inadvertently, and perhaps ignorantly, burning ‘ancient sunshine’, the scientific evidence clearly demonstrates that we have created a carbon dioxide greenhouse which is warming the atmosphere and acidifying the oceans. Although the global extent of the fossil fuel bonanza was obviously unknown two hundred years ago, it is arguable that the seemingly hasty adoption of this largely (at the time) uncharted energy store as our primary source of power, to lubricate our burgeoning, and increasingly ‘energy hungry’, societies, was really rather impetuous. But it was made easy because humans are, for whatever reason, irrationally inculcated with belief systems, which are rooted in the idea of an Earth of ‘infinite’ capacity, which can be exploited without limit. We treat the Earth as if ‘we were passing through’. The myth of the special place of the human species in the natural world, and a deeply embedded notion of our ownership of it, is part of this irrationality, and it has not helped those cautioning restraint. The religious worldview, which places humankind at the apex of creation, is hard to shake. Such concepts were certainly prevalent two hundred years ago, and sadly, despite our comprehensive knowledge of the workings of the Universe from quarks to quasars, they seem to be just as deeply entrenched in the human psyche even today, and continue to place an immense barrier in the way of those trying to foster the widespread acceptance of ecological limits. So how culpable is mankind? Have we been reckless in our stewardship of the planet and far too lethargic in getting to grips with the now apparent environmental deterioration, and the impending climate collapse, if that is what faces us? On present trends it seems very likely that there will be no abatement of greenhouse gas emissions before climate change and global heating reach a level which makes it inevitable that life for humans on this planet (other species will obviously suffer more) becomes increasingly difficult for many, and intolerable for some. The huge and widespread inertia to ‘greening’ the planet, which is described in this book, and is hinted at in many others, is firmly in the hands of the multinational corporations, which have ably demonstrated their power to brainwash the public that climate change is not a significant threat, and to neuter the environmentally friendly efforts of governments, even in the United States of America. There will be consequences as populations become aware of the deteriorating biosphere. Already there are local occurrences of people seeing their way of life or their dwelling places (e.g. Inuit people in Canada are pursuing a human rights case against the US government) destroyed by global warming, and in these cases legal redress and compensation is being sought from easily indentifiable culprits. In the future legal action by individuals and communities seeking redress for loss of

Preface

xi

livelihood and lifestyle as a result global warming will become commonplace, but such cases will be much more difficult to pursue, since the link between victim and perpetrator and climate change will not always be clear. Future legal actions will require strong, well founded, evidence, in order to ensure that those targetted corporations which find themselves in the dock are truly guilty. This book provides the evidence of corporate malfeasance by demonstrating very clearly that the science underpinning global warming has been well established for over a century, and that the scientists have been warning the establishment, of the greenhouse gas problem associated with fossil fuel combustion, for even longer. It shows, that many of the most powerful market driven organisations on the planet have been carried along by the flawed economics of endless growth, and have wilfully ignored all warnings of an impending biospheric reckoning for their energy wasteful and mineral profligate activities. Eight chapters are employed to explore the relevance of thermodynamics to any meaningful assessment of the advent, the growth and the potential harm to the planet, of anthropogenic global warming. In chapter one the development of thermodynamics in the late nineteenth century is revisited, while at the same time an attempt is made, hopefully successfully, to illuminate the basic scientific meaning of the four fundamental laws that underpin the subject. We explore, in Chap. 4, the thermodynamic implications for the environment, of the fossil fuel based economies of the world, after demonstrating the power of thermodynamics to explain the operation of complex systems, including life, in Chaps. 2, 3. The success of early pioneers in applying thermodynamics to steam engines and the benefits these brought to civilisation, undoubtedly hastened the onset of even bigger engineering achievements during the twentieth century. These technological accomplishments were not without deleterious effects and early and periodic warnings of a significant down-side to the wholesale use of fossil fuels have certainly not been absent. These are elaborated upon in Chap. 5 In the ‘West’ the civilising triumphs provided by engineering were commandeered much more successfully by the capitalist economic system, which arguably was the major reason for the eventual ousting of the communist system evolving in the ‘East’ (except of course, in Laos, North Korea, North Vietnam—and Cuba—in the ‘East’ for the USA). However the outcome has been an accelerating spread of a more dangerous ‘ism’, namely consumerism. The result, according to an accumulating compendium of scientific evidence, is a potential and growing disaster for the planet’s eco-system. In Chap. 6 the rather irrational resistance, and outright denial by some, to the revelations of climate science is pondered, while Chap. 7 is dedicated to the role of assessing the ‘state of play’ vis-a-vis the global greenhouse and ascertaining whether or not it is possible to ‘‘turn off the temperature destabilising heater and to restore the broken thermostat’’. Thence, Chap. 8 is dedicated to the possibility of repairing the thermostat and creating a symbiotic relationship between the needs of human civilisation and the ecosphere, and hopefully long term sustainability. Finally, Chaps. 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 are essentially appendices supporting developments in the main text.

xii

Preface

Naturally all views, assertions, claims, calculations and items of factual information contained in this book have been selected or generated by myself, and any errors therein are my responsibility. However, the book would not have seen the light of day without numerous personal interactions (too many to identify), with family, with friends, and with colleagues at the Heriot-Watt University, on the topic of global warming. So if I have talked to you on this topic, I thank you for your contribution, and the stimulus it may have provided for the creation of this book. I would, also, particularly like to thank my son Iain (Sangster Design) for three of the illustrations, and the members of staff, at the Heriot-Watt University library, who have been very helpful in ensuring that I was able to access a wide range of written material, the contents of some of which have been germane to the realisation of this project. Alan J. Sangster

Contents

1

Equilibrium Thermodynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Fossil Fuels: A Curse or a Benefit? . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.2 Technology Powers Civilisation. . . . . 1.1.3 Economic Misgivings . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.4 The Power of Steam. . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Heat Demystified . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Conservation of Energy is Established 1.2.2 Nascent Formulation of Second Law . 1.2.3 Entropy Defined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Thermodynamics: Laws Zero to Three . . . . . 1.3.1 The First Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2 The Second Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.3 Gibbs Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.4 Statistical Interpretation of Entropy . . 1.3.5 Entropy and Boltzmann . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.6 The Zeroth Law. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.7 The Third Law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 The Quintessential Heat Engine . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.1 Steam Engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.2 Internal Combustion Engine . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2

Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life . . 2.1 Bioenergetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 Thermodynamics and Complex 2.1.2 Negentropy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.3 Cellular Factory . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 2 3 4 7 8 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 20 21 22 23

....... ....... Systems . ....... .......

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

25 25 26 27 27

xiii

xiv

Contents

2.2 Photosynthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Energetic Aspects of Photosynthesis. . . 2.2.2 Gibbs Input to Photosynthesis . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Energy Conservation for Plants . . . . . . 2.3 Animal Metabolism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Foodstuffs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2 Energy Extraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3 Catabolism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.4 Divergence from Equilibrium . . . . . . . 2.3.5 Life and Equilibrium Thermodynamics. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

29 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 42

3

Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Gradient Degradation and Complex Structures. 3.1.1 Induced Order in Magnetic Materials . . 3.1.2 Electrically Induced Order . . . . . . . . . 3.1.3 Gravitationally Induced Order . . . . . . . 3.1.4 Thermally Induced Structure . . . . . . . . 3.1.5 Chemically Induced Order . . . . . . . . . 3.2 The ‘Stuff’ of Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 The Pre-Biotic ‘Primordial Soup’. . . . . 3.3 Emergence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Autocatalysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Solar Gradient and Life . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3 Embryonic Life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

43 43 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 53 54 54 56 58

4

Thermodynamics and Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Climate Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Greenhouse Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Problems with Burning Coal . . . . . . . 4.1.3 Solar Influences on Climate . . . . . . . 4.1.4 Infrared Absorption . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.5 Biosphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.6 Exploiting ‘Ancient Sunlight’ . . . . . . 4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming. . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Interpretation of Temperature Records 4.2.2 Efficacy of Future Projections . . . . . . 4.2.3 Tree-Ring Proxy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 Ice Cores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.5 Global Warming and Solar Activity . . 4.2.6 Climate Change Denial. . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

59 59 59 59 61 61 63 64 65 66 68 69 72 73 75

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Contents

xv

4.3 Ecological Succession. . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Cooperative Species . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Ecosystem Development . . . . . 4.3.3 Efficiency of Ecosystems . . . . 4.4 Gaia Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1 Trophic Levels . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.2 Climax Ecosystem . . . . . . . . . 4.4.3 Climate Controlling Biosphere. 4.5 Thermodynamics of the Greenhouse . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

78 78 79 80 82 83 84 86 87 89

5

Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system . . . . . 5.1 Thermodynamic Symptoms . . . . . . 5.2 Drifting Towards Ecocide . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Growth Based on Steam . . . 5.2.2 Electric Power . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.3 The Oil Bonanza . . . . . . . . 5.2.4 Mass Air Travel. . . . . . . . . 5.2.5 Computer Revolution . . . . . 5.3 The Evidence of Ecocide . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Urban Smog . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 Acid Rain . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Chlorofluorocarbons . . . . . . 5.3.4 Heat Waves. . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Nature in Retreat . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 Emergence of Agri-business 5.4.2 Artificial Food Chain . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

93 93 95 96 98 98 100 101 103 103 104 105 108 110 110 112 115

6

Eco-Blind Civilisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy . 6.1.1 Disreputable Beginnings . . . . 6.1.2 Gambling with Economics . . 6.1.3 NET Applied to Economics . 6.1.4 Environmental Economics. . . 6.2 Public Disengagement from Science . 6.2.1 Educational Decoupling . . . . 6.2.2 Parodied by the Media . . . . . 6.3 Inveterate Polluters. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1 Fossil-Fuel Pollution . . . . . . 6.3.2 Polluting Instinct . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3 Collapsing Civilisation . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

117 117 118 119 122 125 128 128 129 131 131 133 135

xvi

Contents

6.4 Ecocidal Tendencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.1 A Diagnosis of Ecocide . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

138 140 141

7

Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 Legacy of the Fossil Fuel Era . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1 Economic Juggernaut . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 An Earth of Infinite Capacity . . . . . . 7.2 Cures for Ecocide. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Dampening the Population Explosion . 7.2.2 Abandonment of Fossil Fuels . . . . . . 7.2.3 Demise of Global Capitalism. . . . . . . 7.3 Beyond Capitalism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 Fossil Fuel Crunch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Capitalism and Sustainability . . . . . . 7.3.3 Democratic Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

143 143 143 144 145 146 148 149 151 151 152 154 157

8

Sustainable Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 Resetting the Thermostat for Plus Two Degrees. 8.1.1 The Thermodynamic Limit . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.2 Thermostatic Malfunction . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.3 Thermostatic Correction . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 Breaking the Fossil Fuel Habit. . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Technofixes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.2 Carbon Capture and Sequestration . . . . . 8.2.3 Nuclear Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.4 Hydrogen for Fossil-Fuels . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 The Transition to Renewables . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 The Ecogrid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2 Power Supply Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.3 Eliminating Frivolous Energy Use . . . . . 8.4 Advanced Civilisation in Harmony with Nature . 8.4.1 Trophic Diagram for Sustainability . . . . 8.4.2 Virtually the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

159 160 160 162 165 166 167 167 170 171 174 174 176 179 181 181 183 185

9

Gibbs Equation for an Ideal Gas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

187

10 Formulation of the Gibbs Equation: Open Systems . . . . . . . . . . .

189

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Contents

xvii

11 Maxwell Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

191

12 Entropy According to Boltzmann . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

193

13 Otto Cycle Calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

195

14 Elementary Greenhouse Calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

199

Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

201

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

207

Chapter 1

Equilibrium Thermodynamics The second law giveth, and the second law taketh away. E.D. Schneider & D. Sagan You all know how powerful and varied are the effects of which steam engines are capable; with them has really begun the great development of industry which has characterised our century before all others. Hermann von Helmholtz

According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the year 2010 confirms a trend, which has seen a relentless breaking of global temperature records over the past decade, setting another one by matching 2005, the previous hottest year on record. Despite the recent minimum of solar irradiance, which would normally produce a cooling tendency, a recent NASA paper chooses to state quite uncompromisingly that: We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade

and there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.20 C/decade that began in the late 1970s.

This will not be lost on anyone, who has lived through, or taken an interest in, the unusually harsh and widely reported climatic events of 2010. From the massive rains in Pakistan, China and Iowa in the US, the drought, heat and unprecedented fires in Russia and western Canada, to the ‘biblical floods’ in Queensland, Australia, the evidence is stark, that year by year some part of the planet experiences weather of unprecedented severity. Although it is, perhaps, scientifically presumptuous to do so, it is hard not to conclude that these natural occurrences, which are obviously perilous for the affected human communities, indicate that the global warming trend is beginning to influence current weather patterns on planet Earth. It also seems that the most recent manifestations may be providing clear hints of impending danger for the myriad species, which inhabit this formerly safe haven in pitilessly cold and empty space. It is the aim of this book to probe and identify the causes of this phenomenon, and to achieve this we shall need to construct a diagnostic capability grounded in the science of thermodynamics, which underpins the evolution of energetic activity in Earth’s biosphere. This we shall do in the later sections of this chapter and in Chap. 2. But before we embark on this task, a brief reminder of the genesis of the ecological deterioration which faces the planet is perhaps apposite.

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_1, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

1

2

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

1.1 Fossil Fuels: A Curse or a Benefit? Sophisticated and elegant scientific analysis techniques have enabled the recording of many aeons of the climate history of Earth. It is done by measuring, the concentrations, the proportions, and the characteristics of gas molecules trapped within 1,000 to 3,000 m long ice core proxies, extracted mainly, but not exclusively, from the ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland. For all sorts of technological and mathematical reasons, to be explored later, this type of record cannot provide definitive values for the average global temperature in the distant past. Nevertheless, the temperatures, inferred from the proxy data, extracted from a multiplicity of sources, display trends which are consistent, predictable and repeatable over time intervals which span millennia. In the interglacial periods, temperatures were much as they are now, while in the ice ages they could sink to 8–10C below today’s level. The record shows that temperatures have never been too low, or too high, to be inimical to life—as we would expect since we are still here! This is despite the fact that over these aeons the sun has been getting hotter, as the young star ages. But because of the earth’s ‘biotic’ thermostat, provided by the rich biodiversity of the ecosphere, a thermodynamic equilibrium has been maintained, which has been and still is conducive to life. However, this stability is changing. About 10,000 years ago a hunter/gatherer species (one of many) now referred to as Homo-sapiens, learned the ‘trick’ of feeding itself by crop farming and animal husbandry. The descent towards ecocide had commenced. Since then the numbers of this species have mushroomed not unlike a virus in a sick animal. By 1900 the population of the globe was estimated to be about 1.65 billion (1,650,000,000), and it is difficult to get away from the fact that, over the intervening years, these rapidly expanding human societies were environmentally destructive, as human throngs are wont to be. From the ‘middle ages’, or perhaps earlier, populations in the northern hemisphere had managed to lay waste to most of the temperate zone forests mainly for building materials and to construct ships and instruments of war, but also to warm their humble abodes, their cathedrals, and their draughty castles. Fortunately, despite the resultant deforestation, planet Earth was not in any real danger of ecological harm because the population level was still tolerably low. It also seems safe to say that before the industrial revolution the ecological consequences of mankind’s activities remained insignificant due to the fact that their energy consuming technology, was not based on fossil-fuels, was quite limited in capacity and extent, and was rather restricted to local activities which could benefit from power assistance. Much of it was associated with the harnessing of the wind (wind-mills), accessing the power of water (water-wheels) and controlling the power of steam largely generated by burning wood. This early technology was actually of the renewable genre—that is, it employed power which had been extracted from planetary energy sources, such as wind, wood and water flows, sources created by direct sunshine daily warming the planet.

1.1 Fossil Fuels: A Curse or a Benefit?

3

History indicates that some municipal systems for extracting power from wind, rivers and tidal estuaries were surprisingly elaborate and sophisticated in engineering terms even by the sixteenth century [1]. Rather ironically, it has been suggested, that nascent human civilisations, mainly through farming and forest clearing, may have had a small positive ecological impact on the Earth’s climate by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide by just enough to ward off another iceage [2].

1.1.1 Population Growth Despite the immaturity of the technology, the benefits to civilisation provided by these early excursions into serious engineering, seem to have coincided with a sudden and rapid growth in population (see Fig. 1.1), in those parts of the world where it appeared. The curve labelled (Indust) shows population growth for the industrial world (USA, Europe, Australia), which by 1800 was powered by fossilfuels, and this curve, although initially at a low level (*170 million), rises faster than the rest of the world from about 1850 to 1950. Around 1950, while the population rise in the industrial world slows and peaks at about 1.2 billion, due in part to high levels of prosperity, female emancipation and availability of effective contraception, the population levels in Asia, South America and Africa ‘take off’, as these regions belatedly acquire the benefits of technology, but without the social advances. Since 1950 world population has risen much faster than the geometric rate (dotted line), which according to the theory of Thomas Malthus (1776–1834) is the natural response of a species, to improvements in access to food. Notwithstanding his position as an Anglican curate, Malthus regarded with considerable scepticism the ideals of those, who expressed the belief that this phenomenon meant that the lot of humanity would continue to improve into the foreseeable future, by observing that throughout history a segment of every human population has been relegated to poverty. He explained his theory by arguing that population growth generally expanded in times and in regions of plenty, until the size of the population eventually out grew its primary resources, causing hardship. Other species are certainly so restrained, but he omitted to take account of human ingenuity which has enabled humans to ‘buck this trend’—until now. He is quoted as saying: The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in comparison with the second.

The Malthusian rate is outstripped in Fig. 1.1 because humans have also discovered how to use energy both to relentlessly improve the efficiency and scale of food production methods, and to secure advances in medical techniques, practices and facilities, and this has further raised birth rates while lowering death rates.

4

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

Fig. 1.1 Population growth (actual ? projected) between 1750 and 2150 and measured global CO2 growth over the same period (IPCC)

Needless to say, the growing population has made, and is making, increasing demands on the planet, as Malthus predicted, because more and more communities are seeking access to the ‘fruits of technology’. Unfortunately the primary energy source for this burgeoning desire for the economic advances provided by technology has been fossil fuels, rather than renewable power. From an ecological perspective, the rapid withering of renewable technology has been unfortunate, but perhaps inevitable. The ecocidal expansion of CO2 in the atmosphere, which has accompanied industrial expansion founded on energy from fossil fuels, is shown as a blue chain-dotted curve in Fig. 1.1, for which the right hand scale is applicable. The correlation with population growth is clear. In fact, it is so irrefutable, that to suggest, as some do, that the problem of accumulating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not of anthropogenic genesis, surely verges on the perverse. The recently coined term ‘ecocide’ provides a cynical yet powerfully descriptive word for mankind’s apparent drift towards catastrophic climate change.

1.1.2 Technology Powers Civilisation The history of the spread of the human species over the land area of planet Earth is principally a story of the emergence and expansion of civilisation, although at very unequal rates in different parts of the world. Nevertheless, throughout the narrative, it is not too difficult to discern, even with the merest acquaintance with our human tale, that ‘progress’, however one chooses to interpret or define it, was

1.1 Fossil Fuels: A Curse or a Benefit?

5

everywhere a fluctuating affair. It still is. The ‘ups and downs’ in human societal development took many forms and guises, and was influenced by many events. Arguably a consistent thread of economic progress can be perceived there in, although not without some difficulty, because it is intermittently impeded by the enactment of some major dramas, which have featured in the journey of our species from hunter/gatherers to, for some, modern urbanised sophisticates. These have been at times, as is well known, quite traumatic and destructive. Notwithstanding the reversals, it is quite hard, in reading the history [1, 3], not to reach the conclusion that much of civilisation’s recent economic advance can be ascribed to a seemingly unending flow of innovative technological developments, powered by coal, oil and natural gas. Technology has certainly helped to satisfy some basic needs for humans such as immunity from the effects of bad weather, partial protection from severe climatic events, security from predators and reliability of food supply. Also for some, it has permitted time and space to pursue and acquire better health, education, political freedom, participation in democracy, time for family and friends, and creative expression. But the term ‘civilisation’ seems to be too grand a description for what humanity is haphazardly and incoherently constructing. It seems that we are ‘good’ at assembling financial structures to power national and global economies, at designing and building infrastructure in our towns and cities and at manufacturing the artefacts which make existence tolerably comfortable, but the term ‘civilisation’ suggests that ‘quality of life’ should be part of the mix. Unfortunately, except for a very few, namely the rich and powerful, recognisable advances in quality are hard to identify. For the vast majority of the global population, in those parts of the world considered to be ‘civilised’, the hard earned prizes of freedom and democracy, where they are available to them, are generally unappreciated and seemingly of little interest to many, as they have become seduced by the cult of consumerism and a desire for instant gratification. As Jonathan Porritt [4] has suggested, humans today are on a ‘hedonic treadmill’, which is: the great driving force of modern capitalism, with governments compelled to condone and even exhort ever higher levels of consumption in order to keep their tax revenues flowing, with business able to deploy ever more sophisticated marketing to reinforce a sense of permanent dissatisfaction on the part of individual consumers, and consumers themselves (for lack of evidence to the contrary, let alone any serious Plan B) seemingly persuaded that consumption as a proxy for living is probably the best thing on offer. Even though it leaves them no happier or more fulfilled, even as levels of personal consumption move relentlessly upwards.

Other groups within the ever scurrying, and consuming multitudes, aggravate this depressingly uncivilising trend, by drifting unthinkingly towards inappropriate and unhelpful fundamentalist and coercive religions. These organisations tend to have little difficulty in tolerating the notion that the masses can be pacified by means of a plentiful supply of ‘opiates’, in the form of consumer goods. With ever increasing numbers of humans on the planet demanding that their materialistic consuming instincts should be assuaged, and with governments of all persuasions making every attempt to gratify them.

6

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

This is not about to change any time soon, since, as Porritt correctly observes: Children the world over are brought up on the same evolutionary account: that it was humankind’s capacity to use tools that first helped us to establish our ecological niche, and that this slowly evolved into an increasingly powerful ability to assemble raw materials extracted from nature into objects, machines, buildings and so on. For most of our short history, this conversion process (from natural capital into manufactures capital) was relatively modest, localised and mostly low impact as far as the environment was concerned. But from the mid-18th century onwards, the Industrial Revolution transformed the balance of that relationship between the biosphere and the technosphere. The availability of cheap fossilised fuels from the middle of the 20th century onwards has further increased the dependence of human beings upon countless different sources of manufactured capital

Nevertheless it is clear that the current direction of ‘civilisation’ has the potential to render the planet uninhabitable in the not too distant future, because of uncontrollable environmental degradation. Humanity needs to articulate a ‘goal’ for its technology based civilisation. The ‘project’, including economic activity, surely has to follow a sustainable path. Unfortunately, neither the formulation nor the communication of new guiding principles for the future long term occupancy of the planet have been given serious attention, as far as I am aware, although this may be changing [4]. Any coherent religious meaning to ‘human progress’, which may have been posited in the past, is becoming more and more spurious in this modern world of over-population and planetary squalor for which most religions, with their immanent dogmas, which urge and facilitate population expansion rather than the opposite, have no answer. Of course, those propagating ideas of ‘rapture’ are totally unconcerned at the possibility of the habitable planet going ‘down the tubes’. They will be elsewhere! In ‘‘An Angel Directs the Storm’’, M. Northcott [5] quite clearly and concisely identifies this rather scary evangelical phenomenon, which has emerged in the USA, in the following quotation: Pre-millennialists believe they are living in the end time, and it is an era of growing lawlessness and dreadful wars which threaten to extinguish human life on Earth. Only after these events will Christ return to inaugurate a literal ‘thousand-year reign of peace’, which millennialists believe is predicted in the Book of Revelations. Pre-millennialists also believe that true believers will be ‘raptured’ or plucked off the planet by God before the Great Tribulation, so that only those ‘left behind’ will have to face the terrors of the end time - the last great conflagration of Armageddon, or World War III, which happen as a result of the escalation of crisis in the Middle East.

But for most of mankind a form of ‘civilisation’ which appears to involve pursuing economic progress, almost exclusively for ‘wealth’ creation of the material kind, to feed ‘consumerism’, continues to be the long term goal and little else seems to be of concern. Certainly while this is the case, scientists and engineers will continue to invent, and hence keep the process going. A good example is the evolving scientific discipline of nanotechnology which promises, in addition to applications with serious intent, all sorts of shiny new goodies and gadgets for the consuming masses in the not too distant future. All that the purveyors of technology seek are reliable sources of sponsorship. The moral or ethical implications, of the use or misuse of their discoveries and inventions, tend to bother only a very

1.1 Fossil Fuels: A Curse or a Benefit?

7

small proportion of the technological ‘whizz-kids’. Some, those very few attached to science and engineering institutions may perhaps express disquiet, but their influence is essentially negligible. As a result, in a world which has largely espoused global capitalism, it is clear that unrestrained consumerism or materialism is not a feasible option. It is certainly not a sensible aspiration, for one simple and over-riding reason. Since the global economy cannot be decoupled from the environment, and by extension the ‘real’ world, and since civilisation’s gains through economic growth are arguably dependent on technology powered by fossil fuels, endless ‘progress’ has the potential to be very dangerous for the ecological health of the planet, as we are now beginning to discover.

1.1.3 Economic Misgivings Long before the ecological ramifications of the current global economic system became known, wise heads were proffering warnings of a downside to unremitting economic progress. By the system we mean market capitalism, which now holds sway over most of the globe. In 1848, John Stuart Mill [6], an eminent philosopher and political theorist, who was born in London to Scottish parents, is quoted as saying, in his ‘‘Principles of Political Economy’’: I cannot… regard the stationary state of capital and wealth with the unaffected aversion so generally manifested towards it by political economists of the old school. I am inclined to believe that it would be, on the whole, a very considerable improvement on our present condition. I confess I am not charmed with the ideal of life held out by those who think that the normal state of human beings is that of struggling to get on; that trampling, crushing, elbowing, and treading on each other’s heels…. are the most desirable lot of mankind…. It is scarcely necessary to remark that a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the Art of Living, and much more likelihood of its being improved.

This is unbelievably prescient, yet the dash for growth in the intervening years, suggests that few economists can have bothered to read Mill’s output. That such warnings have been regularly and ignorantly dismissed by mankind is clear from observations such as this example, by Athanasiou [7]: Mitsubishi embodies to an extreme degree the fundamental process that sets the modern world apart from its predecessors. Our time - to use words the economic historian Karl Polanyi wrote fifty years ago - lies after the ‘‘Great Transformation’’, in which ‘‘the notion of gain’’ so overcame the social framework within which it was once embedded, and by which it was restrained, that ‘‘human society’’ was turned into ‘‘an accessory of the economic system’’. We live, as Polanyi put it, within the ‘‘stark utopia’’ of the ‘‘selfregulating market’’. Finding ourselves within a long movement of social and ecological decay, it is not difficult for us to appreciate his 1944 warning against economic forces so unrestrained that ‘‘the laws of commerce’’ come to seem ‘‘the laws of nature’’ - and consequently ‘‘the laws of God’’. As for Polanyi’s conclusion that ‘‘a self-regulating market’’ cannot exist for any length of time without annihilating the human and natural substance of society’’, what is it if not an early statement of a now open secret?

8

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

Sixty years later the economic system still powers ahead, with an occasional recessionary stumble, as if the planet had infinite capacity to absorb all mankind’s foolhardy misuse and abuse of its natural resources. Growth based on the combustion of increasingly copious volumes of fossil fuels to feed rampant consumerism seems to have become the raison d’etre of modern life. Civilisation has become equated with economic progress, and consequently, it is difficult for ‘rich world’ populations not to infer that unless there is growth economically we die! Yet historians will likely view the current headlong rush for growth and prosperity as merely a 200 year ‘blip’ on the graph of human evolution; life without any prospect of material advancement has, in fact, been the historical norm. We shall return to this issue in Chaps. 5 and 6.

1.1.4 The Power of Steam The story of the technology, which has underpinned civilisation’s physical development, is largely a saga of rapidly expanding exploitation of the power of the sun—but not, unfortunately, the power gifted by current sunlight, but power derived from ‘ancient sunlight’ in the form of the energy stored in the fossilised deposits of the flora and fauna of primordial forests. Inevitably, given human nature, it is also a tale of the use and misuse of this power. In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, in several parts of the world, but particularly in Britain, it was apparent that an agrarian revolution was under way, and that in tandem, an industrial revolution in the textile industry, in coal mining, in shipbuilding and in the manufacture of iron, tin and glass was taking root. A mercantile system was in place to facilitate internal markets and global trade [3]. Consequently the social, political, commercial, economic, manufacturing and technological conditions were ripe for a massive expansion of industry including food production. ‘‘Capitalism, with coal, iron, and engineering enterprise, gave rise to industry, and in the end to the forces, which led to modern technological civilisation’’ [3]. The iron and coal were required to construct and to energise powerful engines to turn the wheels of industry, which was thereby, unleashed from the limitations of water and wind power. But in order to mine coal and produce iron in sufficient quantities to meet demand it was necessary for the mines and the iron works themselves to have access to the power of steam. The first steam pumping-engine was invented [3] by Thomas Newcomen (1663–1729). By using jet condensation of steam in a cylinder, low pressure was generated in the space above a piston. Thus atmospheric pressure was enough to move the piston and do work on a beam attached to a pump. These engines could be large, as anyone who has visited an industrial museum will know. The working cylinder could be as much as 2 m in diameter with a 3 m stroke. Engines of this type were adopted widely in industrialising Europe. The Newcomen steam powered pump provided the solution to a major obstacle which was impeding the development of coal mining. The extraction of water from

1.1 Fossil Fuels: A Curse or a Benefit?

9

mines was becoming extremely expensive, if not impossible in some cases. That the pumping of water from deep mines could be done much more economically and effectively with the Newcomen engine was evident from the fact of its widespread adoption. With the increasing availability of coal, came the growth of iron making. This skill had come to Western Europe and Britain with the Romans and was used mainly to forge weaponry. By the eighteenth century there was a shortage of wood for making the charcoal which was essential to the smelting process. In Britain, the countryside had largely been denuded of its sea-to-sea forests to make way for farming and to provide building materials for growing towns and cities and for shipbuilding. Iron was being imported from Sweden. Smelting with coal, in the form of coke, appeared around 1600, and by 1709 an iron works at Coalbrookdale in England was producing about 5–10 tons of cast iron per week. At its peak Coalbrookdale employed 16 steam engines to service eight blast furnaces, nine forges, rolling mills and foundries. A mutually dependent trio of steam power, coal and iron had been created. It would be the pivotal motivator of early industrialisation, and in particular the industrialisation of the textile industry. The process was helped along by James Watt (1736–1819). This quintessential Scottish engineer was initially an instrument maker in London, before moving to Glasgow to become a laboratory technician at the university there. While there, he attended lectures on heat and was mentored by another Scot, Joseph Black (1728–1799), a physician, physicist, and chemist, known for his discoveries of latent heat, specific heat, and carbon dioxide. He is credited with being a founder of thermo-chemistry and developed many pre-thermodynamics concepts, such as heat capacity. Watt was given the task of repairing a model of a Newcomen engine and while doing so he determined how to improve its efficiency. His genius was to provide a separate condenser so that the expansive power of steam could be used in addition to the vacuum power used by the Newcomen engine. It led to push/pull motive power. Watt’s proposed design was three to four times more efficient than a Newcomen engine, and as a consequence he became a rich man in supplying it to the coal mines, with the help of his mentor Black and with the entrepreneurial guidance of John Roebuck and Matthew Boulton, both industrialists. By 1800 there were about 500 Boulton/Watt steam engines in Britain in mines, iron works and textile mills. In the United States industrial expansion based on steam was equally rapid. Between 1781 and 1790 the number of private companies or corporations involved in bringing about the ‘revolution’ in that part of the world grew from 33 to 328 [8]. It is interesting, and relevant only insofar as it illustrates Watt’s practical engineering skills, to recount that in 1783 Watt is said [9] to have: ‘‘tested a strong horse and decided it could raise a 150 lb weight nearly 4 feet in a second. He therefore defined a ‘horsepower’ as 550 foot-pounds/s.’’ How precisely the test was performed is not recorded. Nevertheless the definition still persists, although it is hardly used any longer in our modern world of SI units. By the end of the nineteenth century, the opportunities which seemed to be offered by the advent of steam power, encouraged scientist and engineers

10

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

empowered by entrepreneurs, to envisage the spread of industry into many activities beyond coal, steel and textiles. Sadi Carnot (1796–1832), a brilliant French applied scientist and engineer who pointed the way to a theory of thermodynamics, is quoted as saying [3] that: ‘‘steam engines will afford to the industrial arts a range the extent of which can scarcely be predicted, and that they can even create entirely new arts’’. The industrial revolution had begun and the potential to seriously damage the ecology of the planet had been incubated.

1.2 Heat Demystified Before 1800, science was at an elementary stage of evolution, so that even the very nature of heat was unknown to the early engineers endeavouring to comprehend and utilise the power of steam. Today, most people with just a smattering of school science would have little difficulty fathoming the basic thermodynamics of heat engines. Despite their difficulties, however, highly practical engineers such as Newcomen and Watt, scarcely seems to have been delayed or deflected in their endeavours, as we have seen. Their efforts had initiated the steam revolution. This was perhaps fortunate for the human species which had begun to grow uncontrollably, but in retrospect it has hardly been wholly beneficial for the planet! For ‘pure’ science, on the other hand, heat was undeniably a conundrum. Rather surprisingly, when viewed from a modern perspective, it was actually considered, by the scientists of the day, to be a form of chemical element. A. L. Lavoisier [10] (1743–1794) who is often described as ‘the father of chemistry’, certainly judged it to be so [11]. In fact he regarded heat as a fluid which he termed the caloric. The caloric clearly seemed to have troubled Carnot [12], who in expressing confidence, that he had established a fundamental law relating to the optimal efficiency of heat engines, makes the following perceptive observation in 1824: The fundamental law that we have proposed seems to us to require … new verification. It is based upon the theory of heat as it is understood today … (whose) foundation does not appear to be of unquestionable solidity.

Today, the Carnot engine is defined as an engine which operates with optimum efficiency between a high temperature reservoir and a low temperature sink. A heat engine employing an ideal gas and working between two temperatures is termed a Carnot machine. If these temperatures are Tlow and Thigh in Kelvin, then the optimum efficiency (g) is given by: g¼1

Tlow Thigh

ð1:1Þ

As such it is an ideal engine, which means that it operates by using only reversible processes. The engine itself is therefore reversible, acting as an engine or a refrigerator. The efficiency of the Carnot engine, provides a measure of the maximum possible efficiency of any real heat engine.

1.2 Heat Demystified

11

1.2.1 Conservation of Energy is Established However, by 1850 the caloric theory was totally undermined by three scientists largely working independently. Generally acknowledged to be among the ‘giants’ of thermodynamics, they were R.J. Mayer (1814–1878), J.P. Joule (1818–1889) and H.L.F. Helmholtz (1821–1894). By establishing the now axiomatic rule, that at all times energy is conserved, it became impossible to treat heat as anything other than energy, and as a consequence they were able to dismiss the caloric to history. Mayer is quoted as saying [10], somewhat unscientifically, ‘‘Let’s declare it, the great truth. There are no immaterial materials’’. Of course today, the law of conservation of energy is usually referred to as the first law of thermodynamics. It was arguably the greatest scientific revelation of the nineteenth century. Today, it is known that energy and mass are interchangeable, as expressed by Albert Einstein’s famous equation, and consequently scientists have now integrated mass into the statement of the first law.

1.2.2 Nascent Formulation of Second Law Something was still missing, however. The law of conservation of mass/energy does not expose the true nature of heat, and what it means physically for a substance to be hot. So, if heat was energy, what were the internal processes within a material that could explain the difference between a ‘hot’ substance and a ‘cold’ one? This step was made by R.J.E. Clausius (1822–1888) and led to the formulation of the second law of thermodynamics. The developments which appear to have intrigued and influenced Benoit P.E. Clapeyron (1799–1864), Clausius, and later William Thomson (Lord Kelvin—1824–1907), emanated from the work of Carnot on the optimum efficiency of a heat engine and in particular on the Carnot function, which was key to quantifying an optimum for any given engine [11]. Carnot, who died at thirty eight, was unable to provide the answer. The outcome of research, conducted by Carnot’s successors over several years, was the establishment of the absolute temperature scale (now named after Lord Kelvin), and the demonstration that in this scale the Carnot function is the reciprocal of temperature. This led to the realisation that a hot body must possess an internal energy and that this energy was associated with vibrating molecules. In other words heat is a form of kinetic energy. The end result was the observation, attributed to Clausius, that: ‘‘heat cannot pass by itself from a colder to a warmer body’’. This would be like a moving pendulum, when striking the bob of an identical pendulum hanging from a nearby suspension point, delivering to this second pendulum more than its own maximum kinetic energy. If the process was serially repeated for three or more pendulums, the swing amplitude of each succeeding pendulum would get larger and larger, which is patently impossible, as anyone will know who has watched the annoying,

12

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

yet ubiquitous kinetic ornament, comprising five (usually) steel spherical bobs suspended from a frame. The swing motion gradually decreases and dies out, in accordance with the first and second laws.

1.2.3 Entropy Defined The phenomenon of heat decay has become to be known as entropy (a word coined by Clausius), and the observation is a statement of the second law of thermodynamics. It really gives expression to a common sense principle that no process in nature, not just the physical, such as heat engines, but also chemical, biological and informational, can proceed without some sacrifice in energy. So while the first law informs us that the total quantity of energy in a closed system will be conserved, the second law addresses the quality of the energy, and how it inevitably becomes degraded and less capable of being converted into useful work. As Steven Weinburg [13] graphically puts it, the second law ‘‘forbids the Pacific Ocean from spontaneously transferring so much heat energy to the Atlantic, that the Pacific freezes and the Atlantic boils’’. In the irreverent style of the youthful, the first law and second laws, two supreme and far reaching statements from science, have been reduced by science students succinctly and not inappropriately to the following [11]. In the physical world that we humans inhabit ‘you cannot win’ (first law) and more importantly ‘you cannot even break even’ (second law). These laws are really a statement of the fact that the planet, the solar system and perhaps even the universe, are finite. This has been known now for almost 160 years. Yet, here on Earth, human economic developments are still (in 2009) predicated on the possibility that the finiteness of the planet and the limits of mother-nature can be circumvented, as if human beings and their activities are not part of the natural world. For example, the eminent American economist, Milton Friedman [14] is said as having opined quite recently: Most economic fallacies derive from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie; that one party can gain only at the expense of another.

The fact of mankind’s confinement on a finite planet, on which all natural processes are governed by the laws of thermodynamics, would rather seem to make fallacious, Friedman’s contention! It could only ever have been approximately true when human population could be counted in millions rather than billions. As fellow economist E. Cook has noted, rather undermining Friedman’s view: The concept of limits to growth threatens vested interests in power structures; even worse, it threatens value structures in which lives have been invested. Abandonment of belief in perpetual motion was a major step towards recognition of the true human condition. It is significant that mainstream economists never abandoned the belief, and do not accept the relevance to the economic process of the second law of thermodynamics; their position as high priests of the market economy would become untenable did they do so [15]

1.2 Heat Demystified

13

Seth Lloyd, a professor of mechanical engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who is known for contributions to quantum computing, was even nearer the truth about the importance of the second law, when he made the comment that: Nothing in life is certain except death, taxes and the second law of thermodynamics.

To persistently believe that modern global financial systems can be decoupled from the ‘real’ economy, in a real world which has to operate in accordance with the laws of thermodynamics, is quite clearly ‘moonshine’ as we shall see in Chap. 5. That many economists, rather incredibly still do so in 2010, is attested to by the global credit crunch of 2008.

1.3 Thermodynamics: Laws Zero to Three 1.3.1 The First Law The establishment of the first law of thermodynamics, or the law of conservation of energy, grew out of scientific pondering on the idea of a ‘perpetuum mobile’, or ‘perpetual motion machine’. Perpetual motion appears to have intrigued scientists and engineers in the nineteenth century, firstly since it seemed to defy common sense, and secondly since it was acknowledged that a demonstration of its impossibility would go a long way towards establishing that energy conservation represented a fundamental tenet of nature. Actually, even before the input of Helmholtz, the irrationality of the perpetuum mobile was slowly becoming accepted, especially in the case of energy at the macroscopic or human scale; that is kinetic energy, potential energy and elastic energy. This macroscopic law was gaining recognition under the banner of the law of conservation of mechanical energy [11]. Helmholtz’ contribution to the debate was to realise that the internal energy of the materials, from which a macroscopic system might be constructed, merely made it much more complicated in energy terms. He is recorded as observing [11]: what has been called … heat is firstly the … life force (kinetic energy) of thermal motion (of the atoms) and secondly the elastic forces between atoms. The first is what was hitherto called free heat and the second is latent heat.

Despite this additional complexity he was moved to observe that the impossibility of the perpetuum mobile should still apply. While the argument, that energy is conserved, had been accepted for elaborate macroscopic arrangements, provided that friction could be ignored and collisions could be assumed to be inelastic, Helmholtz argued that it must equally be true for such systems, even when friction is finite and collisions are elastic, and that this could be done by broadening the scope of the law to include the potential and kinetic energies of vibrating atoms. He averred that friction and elastic collisions simply have the effect of transferring

14

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

Fig. 1.2 Carnot efficiency demonstration

energy at the microscopic scale, into energy at the macroscopic level. The concept was reported to the Physical Society of Berlin in 1847, under the title ‘On the conservation of force’. At the time ‘force’ was the term used to identify what we would now define as energy. The presentation begins with the sentence [11]: We start from the assumption that it be impossible - by any combination of natural forces (energy)—to create life force (kinetic energy) continually from nothing.

The first law of thermodynamics had been established.

1.3.2 The Second Law The statement of the second law of thermodynamics (see above) formed by Clausius, is much too vague to form a scientifically workable law. Clausius’ initial steps towards a more robust formulation, involved giving deep consideration to what happens if two reversible Carnot machines, working in the same temperature range, compete (see Fig. 1.2). One is presumed to be operating as a heat engine, producing mechanical power (W’) from heat, and the other as a heat pump or refrigerator, employing mechanical power (W) to expand the working gas thus cooling it. The mechanical power from the heat engine is used to drive the refrigerator while the heat (QH) extracted from the refrigerator powers the heat engine. If the engine is assumed to be more efficient than the Carnot refrigerator, then Q’L \ QL and W’ [ W. But this implies that we have a system which is producing net work (W’–W) from a single reservoir at temperature TL, and this contravenes the second law. Therefore it is not possible to create an engine with more efficiency than the Carnot maximum. Perpetual motion would also require one or other machine to be more efficient than the Carnot optimum in converting heat to mechanical power or vice versa, and consequently it is equally unachievable. That the efficiencies of both

1.3 Thermodynamics: Laws Zero to Three

15

machines are equal [11] in such a system, had already been demonstrated by Carnot on the basis of the first law. Also, since nothing in the postulated experiment is said about the working agents or gases he could assert that the efficiency must be independent of the agent used, again confirming the work of Carnot. If one accepts the law of conservation of energy, it must be true that, for a Carnot engine, its efficiency is equal to the heat applied (power in) to the boiler (Qboiler ¼ QH ) minus the heat (power out) of the exhaust (Qout ¼ QL ) divided by the heat applied: out low i.e. g ¼ 1 QQboiler : But for a Carnot engine: g ¼ 1 TThigh as we have already seen (eq. 1.1). Hence, the following proportional relationship between heat and temperature ensues; namely that: Qboiler Qout ¼ Thigh Tlow

ð1:2Þ

This equation expresses the important fact that it is not heat that passes through a Carnot engine unchanged, as Lavoisier thought, but the quantity Q/T. This ratio is what Clausius termed entropy (S).

1.3.3 Gibbs Equation When the definition of entropy is combined with conservation of energy and applied to the case of an ideal gas, an equation results, which is named after J.W. Gibbs (1839–1903) of the University of Yale (for a detailed derivation see Chap. 9). The equation for entropy together with the Gibbs equation (see Chap. 9 Eq. 9.6) has the important consequence that for an adiabatic process, for which no free energy is available, entropy must be positive, since internal energy cannot be negative, and temperature on the Kelvin scale is always positive. Furthermore in time, as the cooling process continues internal heat energy and temperature tend to zero in such a way that their ratio, entropy, becomes a maximum, and all actions cease. In a closed system, for which there is no external source of energy (e.g. the universe perhaps), this implies that its internal energy must dissipate unremittingly. ‘‘So the world has a purpose, or a destination—the heat death [11]’’. Clausius is reported to have put it this way: It is often said that the world goes in a circle …. Such that the same states are always reproduced. Therefore the world could exist forever. The second law contradicts this idea most resolutely. The entropy tends to a maximum. The more closely that maximum is approached, the less cause for change exists. And when the maximum is reached, no further changes can occur; the world is then in a dead stagnant state.

Needless to say this claim caused not a little controversy at the time, from cosmologists to religious leaders [11]. While the Gibbs equation gives a useful indication of the import of entropy in some particular physical scenarios, it fails to provide an objective interpretation of the second law. To do this it is helpful to reconsider the nature of an ideal gas and

16

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

the movement of molecules within it. For such a gas, the thermal equation of state developed from the research of Robert Boyle (1627–1691) among others [11] applies. Today, it is generally referred to as Boyle’s law, which in words dictates that for an ideal trapped volume of gas the product of its pressure and volume is proportional to its temperature in Kelvin. The law can be stated as follows. The equation of state for all gases under low pressure is: pV ¼ NkT ¼ RT

ð1:3Þ

where p = pressure (N/m2): V = volume (m3): T = temperature (K): k = Boltzmann constant (1.1 9 10-23 J/s K): N = number of molecules in the gas. The universal gas constant R = 8.314 J/K for 1 mole of the gas. For such a gas the internal energy associated with the vibrating molecules [11] is given by: 3 2

U ¼ NkT J

ð1:4Þ

To establish a physical interpretation of the second law in such a gas, a major advance in the mathematical representation of the behaviour of gases was required. This step was furnished by James Clerk Maxwell (1831–1879) and reinforced by Ludwig Eduard Boltzmann (1844–1906). It was obviously known, from the work of earlier pioneers on gas behaviour, that gas pressure was simply a manifestation of vibrating molecules striking the containment vessel walls, thus producing pressure as a result of the change in momentum of each particle. What was not known was the distribution of the velocities of these molecules and how the distribution could change with time—an impossible problem for classical dynamics.

1.3.4 Statistical Interpretation of Entropy Clearly, it is statistically unlikely that all molecules will have the same velocity even in an ideal gas in equilibrium. The random nature of molecular fluctuations (Brownian motion) had already been demonstrated by Robert Brown (1773–1885) on the basis of microscopic studies of the irregular motion of minute grain particles suspended in a fluid. Maxwell, by simplifying the problem to a gas comprising N molecules, in a volume V, which is at rest as a whole, found a way to make the problem mathematically tractable. He further assumed that the gas was in equilibrium, and was therefore homogeneous, with an isotropic distribution of molecular velocities. A typical electron is supposed to be travelling in the i-direction. A gas of this description will have an internal energy of U = 1.5 NkT J, as demonstrated above. With each molecule having an arbitrary velocity (ci) with components in the three orthogonal space directions, it can readily be deduced that (see Chaps. 11 and 12) the fraction of molecules (D(ci)), with this velocity is given by: 1 E ð1:5Þ Dðci Þ ¼ qﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃ exp kT 2pkl T

1.3 Thermodynamics: Laws Zero to Three

17

where T is temperature in Kelvin and E is the kinetic energy of a molecule with velocity ci. Distributions such as the one above are sometimes referred to as Maxwellian, in acknowledgement of Maxwell’s role in the development of a kinetic theory for gases. In Fig. 1.3, Maxwellian distributions computed for a litre of air, at three different temperatures, are presented. The ‘bell shaped’ curves are typical of probability distributions and show that most molecules in the gas have low velocities, in the vicinity of ci = 0 where the peak occurs, while only a very small number have velocities which deviate significantly from zero near the base of the ‘bell’. The statistical interpretation would be to observe that a high value for D at ci = 0 implies that the probability of gas molecules having velocities close to zero, in all three cases, is much greater than for it possessing rapidly moving particles. When the temperature is lowered from 273 (0C) to 200 K the probability of molecules having a low velocity rises and vice versa for ‘fast’ molecules. This is in accordance with common sense expectations. The opposite happens if the temperature rises from 273 to 346 K. That the Maxwell distribution is essentially statistical in nature was known to Maxwell [11] but it was Boltzmann who made most headway in applying probabilistic arguments to the kinetic theory of gases. Needless to say Maxwell had got it right, and the statistical approach led to the same expression for the velocity distribution of molecules in a gas at equilibrium. The exponential term expðkET Þ which is the main component of the equation, has become to be known as the Boltzmann factor.

1.3.5 Entropy and Boltzmann The ‘bell’ curves depicted in Fig. 1.3 show clearly that for a gas, as the temperature drops, the distribution becomes sharper indicating that more and more molecules are losing kinetic energy and hence velocity. This suggests that, with time, the molecular velocity distribution in an isolated volume of gas diminishes, and hence its temperature falls, in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics. But what is the precise process? In a warm gas, as has already been indicated, the temperature is simply a measure of the mean kinetic energy of its molecules. These randomly moving molecules are continually colliding with each other and with the walls of the containment vessel. Crudely, the situation is analogous to a large number of moving snooker balls on a large flat table with hard cushions. If the distribution of velocities for the balls is Maxwellian then most will be moving slowly or not at all while a few will be rattling around with high kinetic energy. An elementary appreciation of dynamics suggests that these fast moving balls will not remain so for long, due to the slowing process of repeated collisions, whereby their energy is transferred to slower moving balls. The Maxwell distribution for the balls will gradually become ‘sharper’ reflecting the increasing probability of balls possessing a low or zero velocity.

18

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

Fig. 1.3 D(ci) as a function of particle velocity at three different temperatures, for a litre of air for which k = 1.1 9 10-23 J/K: l = 37.8 9 10-27 kg

So the Maxwell distribution patently changes with time as a result of slowing collisions, but what are the rules? The problem was addressed by Boltzmann, who realised that statistics provided the only feasible way of accommodating intractably large numbers into mathematical theory. For example, molecules in a finite volume of gas can number many millions or billions, and when dealing with such huge numbers, it was known that statistical averages tend to converge towards macroscopic measurements or macroscopic calculations based on conventional equations. For example, in the simple case of tossing a coin, the expectation or prediction of heads turning up for 50% of the throws becomes increasingly accurate, as the number of tosses tends to infinity. When considering the thermodynamics of gases, Boltzmann recast the problem in terms of the statistical distribution of energy microstates (Chap. 12). Qualitatively this can be understood by imagining a large number of tiny sealed and evacuated cubical boxes (microstates), arranged in an orderly way within a very large cubical box (macrostate). Now consider that one of the tiny boxes is filled with warm air, impregnated with smoke (for the purposes of visualisation), and that once filled, and at equilibrium, tiny apertures are simultaneously, and instantaneously, opened between all the boxes. If the boxes were transparent we would observe the distribution of smoke spreading from one box to all boxes. This dissipation of the air through all the boxes represents growing entropy, which becomes a maximum when all boxes are equally filled and the system is again at equilibrium. The warm air in a single box is much more capable of doing ‘useful work’ than the cooler air distributed through all boxes.

1.3 Thermodynamics: Laws Zero to Three

19

The mathematics [11] which describes this process is replicated in Chap. 12, and it leads to the following well known (at least in the science and engineering communities) formula for entropy: S ¼ klnW

ð1:6Þ

Here W is the number of possible realisations of the distribution {Nxc} associated with a gas containing N molecules. S = klnW is arguably one of the most important equations in physics, possibly ranking alongside E = mc2. It is engraved on Boltzmann’s tombstone in Vienna. The Boltzmann equation for S permits a physical interpretation [11]. It suggests that each state or realisation of a gas of N molecules is a priori considered to occur equally frequently, or to be equally possible. For example, the highly ordered state in which all molecules in our multi-box system were located in one box at the same velocity (at equilibrium) is presumed to be just as possible, but less probable, to all subsequent states as the air leaks through the system. At the beginning just at the instant the apertures are opened, the denominator in the equation for W (Eq. 12.9) is equal to N!, which means that we must have S = 0. At any subsequent time the denominator has to be less than N! and S increases monotonically as the logarithm of W. In a warm gas in which all molecules are in irregular thermal shuffling motion the equation predicts that the particle distribution will change inexorably to a form that accommodates more and more possible states which have similarly high probability. This, in turn, implies that, for a gas in a closed volume, entropy increases to a maximum. At this point equilibrium has been reached. This strategy of nature, does not just apply to gases, but to everything in the universe—hence the status which has been accorded to Boltzmann’s equation. Imagine, for example, a well shuffled pack of playing cards. It is highly disordered and hence exhibits high entropy. Further shuffling will, in all probability, merely maintain the disorder and high entropy. The probability of a shuffle resulting in the cards being properly sequenced within their suits (high order; low entropy) is absolutely negligible. Boltzmann’s interpretation of the second law is that an ordered closed system of low entropy will inexorably drift toward a state with higher probability; in other words, towards high entropy. Increasing entropy is essentially a measure of the growing degree of randomness inherent in a system. The second law is not absolute. It is possible for the entropy of a system to decrease, but not if it is ‘closed’ in the classical sense, as we shall see.

1.3.6 The Zeroth Law That the zeroth law of thermodynamics is so called, is clearly an indication that while it was formulated subsequent to the announcement of the first and second laws, it is considered to provide a basic underpinning of, or platform for, these two laws. Scientists at the time of Clausius were quite unaware of any need to define temperature. It is probable that they considered it to be self-evident that the temperature of the heat sensitive constituent of a thermometer was the same as the

20

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

material or substance being measured. That they are in such equilibrium, is the defining property of temperature. At the interface between two different substances the temperature on one side of the interface must be equal to the temperature at the other: temperature is described as being continuous across the interface. Once it is appreciated that temperature is a measure of atomic or molecular velocities within a material or substance, this property is not difficult to comprehend. It has been termed the zeroth law of thermodynamics.

1.3.7 The Third Law In the field of cryogenics, and in particular the nature of thermodynamics at temperatures close to absolute zero, the third law emerges. At very low temperatures atoms in a material find potential barriers very difficult to overcome because their thermal kinetic energies are so weak. For example hydrogen (H2) can become liquid or even solid at low enough temperatures. At these temperatures the kinetic energies of the individual molecules are too weak to overcome the intermolecular forces. While hydrogen molecules are on average unpolarised, the positive charge of the nuclei can be temporarily displaced from the ‘centre of gravity’ of negative charge of the orbiting electrons, thus forming a short lived dipole. The electric attraction between these short lived dipoles (the Van der Waals force) is generally insignificant unless their kinetic energies are so low that the vibrating molecules cannot resist this force and begin adhering to each other. When this happens the gas becomes a liquid or a solid if the temperature is low enough. If the temperature approaches zero Kelvin, no potential barriers (Van der Waals attractive forces) no matter how small can be overcome, and this means that the material must assume the state of lowest possible energy. All molecular action ceases, and entropy must be zero. In theory volume also shrinks towards zero. But nothing can exist in zero volume, therefore zero temperature must be unachievable. This is the essence of the third law of thermodynamics. It is attributed to Hermann W. Nernst (1864–1941) who summarised the laws one to three of thermodynamics thus [11]: It is impossible to build an engine that produces heat or work from nothing. It is impossible to build an engine that produces work from nothing else than the heat of the environment. It is impossible to take all the heat from a body.

1.4 The Quintessential Heat Engine A heat engine typically uses energy to do work, provided in the form of a hot gas at a higher temperature than the environment in which the engine resides. In so doing the gas loses heat and its molecules eventually possess insufficient kinetic energy to continue to do useful work. At this stage it is then expelled through an exhaust. The first law and second law of thermodynamics provide the fundamental

1.4 The Quintessential Heat Engine

21

constraints to the operation. The first law requires that the system should adhere to conservation of energy, while the second sets limits on the possible efficiency of the machine and determines the direction of energy flow.

1.4.1 Steam Engine Heat engines such as steam engines and internal combustion engines in automobiles operate in a cyclic manner, with the reciprocating motion of a piston being converted to rotary motion by means of a mechanical connecting rod attached to the piston and a crank in the rotating shaft housing a flywheel. The hot gases are introduced into a cylinder which is swept by the piston, and thereby provide power to the device. In an ideal engine operating with an ideal gas the operation can be illustrated by means of a pressure–volume (PV) diagram as illustrated in Fig. 1.4. The hot gas is introduced into the cylinder when it is at its minimum volume position (1), at which point there is a very rapid increase in pressure (1–2) before the piston starts to move; in a steam engine by opening a steam valve, or in an internal combustion engine by igniting a charge of hydrocarbon vapour. This pressure is a manifestation of the incessant bombardment of the walls of the cylinder by highly agitated molecules of the hot gas. Each molecule exerts a force on the wall proportional to its change of momentum. When the pressure becomes high enough at (2) the piston begins to move and the cylinder volume increases (2–3). The gas does work on the piston which, with all its connecting parts, gains kinetic energy. The gas in the cylinder obviously expands and becomes less dense thus exerting less pressure on the walls and the piston. It also becomes cooler (refrigerator action), and the degree of cooling, for an ideal gas at least, can be estimated from application of Boyle’s law Eq. 1.3. Once the piston reaches the end of its travel, a valve, or valves in the cylinder will be opened to exhaust the used gas. The pressure will drop almost instantaneously (3–4), and old gas will be ejected from the cylinder. On the return stroke (4–1) this gas will be compressed, in a simple single cylinder system by the force of inertia normally supplied by a fly-wheel. The cycle will then repeat. Pressure–Volume (PV) diagrams are a primary visualization tool for the study of heat engines. Since the engines usually involve a gas as a working substance, the ideal gas law relates the PV diagram to the temperature so that the three essential state variables for the gas can be tracked through the engine cycle. Since work is done, only when the volume of the gas changes, the diagram gives a visual interpretation of the work done. Furthermore, the internal energy of an ideal gas depends upon its temperature, consequently the PV diagram, along with the temperatures calculated from the ideal gas law, determine the changes in the internal energy of the gas. Thus the amount of heat added can be evaluated from the first law of thermodynamics. In summary, the PV diagram provides the framework for the analysis of any heat engine which uses a gas as a working substance. For a cyclic heat engine process, the PV diagram will be closed loop.

22

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

Fig. 1.4 Heat engine thermodynamics

The area inside the loop is a representation of the amount of work done during a cycle. Some idea of the relative efficiency of an engine cycle can be obtained by comparing its PV diagram with that of a Carnot cycle, the most efficient kind of heat engine cycle. A heat engine typically uses energy, provided in the form of heat, to do mechanical work, and then exhausts the cooler gases, which can no longer be used to do useful work within the engine. The relationship between heat and work can be studied by resorting to the science of thermodynamics. The first law and second law of thermodynamics constrain the operation of a heat engine. The first law is the application of conservation of energy to the system, and the second sets limits on the possible efficiency of the machine and determines the direction of energy flow. A schematic, which is commonly used, sometimes in conjunction with a PV diagram, to illustrate the operation of a heat engine, is the energy reservoir model (Fig. 1.4). The engine takes energy from a hot reservoir and uses a portion of it to do work, but is constrained by the second law of thermodynamics to exhaust the remainder to a cold reservoir. In the case of the automobile engine, the hot reservoir is the burning fuel and the cold reservoir is the environment to which the combustion products are exhausted. The efficiency expression, given on the schematic, is a general one, but the maximum efficiency is limited to that of the Carnot cycle. This limitation is often called the thermal bottleneck.

1.4.2 Internal Combustion Engine The internal combustion engine was first patented in 1861, but the first person to actually build a car with this engine was a German engineer named Nicolaus Otto (1832–1891). The four-stroke principle of operation is today commonly known as the Otto cycle and four-stroke engines using spark plugs are often referred to as Otto engines. The Otto cycle consists of (1) adiabatic compression, (2) heat

1.4 The Quintessential Heat Engine

23

addition at constant volume, (3) adiabatic expansion and (4) rejection of heat at constant volume. The power delivered by the internal combustion engine originates primarily from the expansion of gases in the power stroke. Compressing the fuel and air into a very small space increases the efficiency of the power stroke (see Chap. 14), but at the expense of increasing the heating of the fuel as the mixture is more highly compressed. This has ramifications for cylinder head and valve design. Diesel engines, invented by Rudolf Diesel (1858–1913], differ from Otto engines in that they rely on self-ignition, rather than spark ignition, for the engine to function. This engine solves several internal combustion engine problems associated with high compression. Firstly, air without fuel can be compressed to a very high degree without concern for self-ignition, and secondly the highly pressurized fuel in the fuel injection system cannot ignite without the presence of air. A sample thermodynamic calculation for an internal combustion engine based on the Otto cycle is provided in Chap. 14. Of course, modern engine design is today fully and accurately simulated in computer software, but it still remains useful (and most courses in thermodynamics would encourage students to do so) to perform ‘long hand’ calculations on idealised gas models in order to gain a thorough understanding of the thermodynamics. The exposition of the operation of the fundamental heat engine, developed in this section, will provide a good platform, as we will see, for examining the Earth’s environmental ‘heat engine’, which may, or may not be controlled by a selfcorrecting ‘thermostat’, as is suggested by the Gaia Hypothesis. This contention is addressed in Chap. 4.

References 1. Gregory MS (1971) History and development of engineering. Longman Group Ltd, London 2. Ruddiman WF (2003) The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Clim Ch 61:261–293 3. Ferguson N (2006) The ascent of money. Allen Lane Penguin Books, London 4. Porritt J (2007) Capitalism: as if the world matters. Earthscan, London 5. Northcott M (2004) An angel directs the storm: apocalyptic religion and american empire. I.B, Taurus, London 6. Mill JS (2004) A biography by Nicholas Capaldi. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 7. Athanasiou A (1996) Slow reckoning. Secker & Warburg, London 8. Bakan Joel (2004) The corporation. Constable & Robinson Ltd., London 9. Asimov I (1975) Biographical encyclopaedia of science and technology. Pan Reference Books, London 10. Lavoisier AL (1965) Elementary treatise on chemistry. Dover Publications, New York Reprinted 11. Muller I (2007) A history of thermodynamics. Springer-Verlag, Berlin 12. Thurston RH (1960) Reflections on the motive power of fire. In: Sadi Carnot (ed). Other papers on the second law of thermodynamics. In: E. Clapeyron and R. Clausius. E. Mendoza (eds), Dover Publication, New York

24

1 Equilibrium Thermodynamics

13. Weinburg S (1993) Dreams of a final theory. Vantage, New York 14. Friedman M (2002) Capitalism and freedom. University of Chicago Press, Chicago 15. Cook E (1982) The consumer as creator: a criticism of faith in limitless ingenuity. Energy Explor Exploitation 1(3):189–201 16. Joule JP (1857) Remarks of the heat and constitution of elastic fluids. Philosophical Mag Series IV(XIV):211

Chapter 2

Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life A transformation whose only final result is to transform into work, heat from a source which is at a single temperature is impossible. Lord Kelvin Just as the constant increase of entropy is the basic law of the universe, so it is the basic law of life to be ever more highly structured and to struggle against entropy. Vaclav Havel

2.1 Bioenergetics Ludwig Boltzmann was a scientist of not insignificant stature in the nineteenth century, as his contribution to the second law of thermodynamics attests, yet he was moved to suggest that it was ‘the century of Darwin’. Of course both evolution and thermodynamics made fundamental contributions to scientific knowledge during this period of burgeoning ideas. It has been termed the century of time, insofar as scientists, particularly in these two specialisations, had become tantalised and intrigued by the implications for their work, of the geological aeons of Earth’s existence—about 4.5 billion years at the last count. Nevertheless, for Boltzmann, the Darwinian revolution represented the outstanding scientific breakthrough of the age. He also appears to have believed that there was an affinity between evolution and thermodynamics, two sciences imbued with a sense of time. However, this notion has rather troubled scientists until recently, since for each, the arrows of time seem very different. While the former presages the progression toward organisational complexity in biological organisms, where time is related to the process of evolution, the latter points to entropy growth and statistical disorder where elapsed times are associated with the process of decay. This chapter attempts to show that the thermodynamic laws are by no means just restricted to the study of thermal effects in man-made artefacts and heat engines. The growing evidence is that, provided they are applied with suitable caution, these laws can also explain, elegantly and succinctly, complex systems in the natural world. But we need to be aware that they have their limits. Even in the case of the elementary thermal processes in a heat engine, the science of thermodynamics cannot be expected to provide a design manual for the engine, in much the same way as gravitational theory affords little help in the detailed design of a spacecraft, because there are many other influences. Nevertheless, the scientific understanding, which such theories encourage, certainly helps in comprehending the essential features of devices engineered to take advantage of

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_2, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

25

26

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

thermal energy, or in the case of gravitational theory, to travel in space. What thermodynamics can do, in accounting for the properties of heat engines, is give a plausible explanation of the relationship between mass, momentum, energy and entropy in a working device, and this is essentially what it can do for biological processes or life itself [1]. By demonstrating that thermodynamics has already been very successful in providing rational explanations for the complex forces driving life and the energy mechanisms sustaining it, or more precisely the metabolic processes in living organisms, we hope to justify the recruitment of thermodynamics to the examination of the complex biosystem, which maintains the ecological health of planet Earth. Beyond the wide ranging, but impenetrable, deliberations in the scientific literature little has been published on the relationship between thermodynamics and biosystems. Here, in a single non-specialist book, I have sought to bring the science of thermodynamics to bear on both biology and ecology in the hope that we can attempt, thereby, to address the nature of global warming, and perhaps to reveal its anthropogenic origins, which remains a debatable issue for many. The scientific literature emanating from biology and biochemistry is vast, and in recent years a not insignificant proportion of it has sought, and in fact still seeks, to correlate thermodynamics with the mechanisms of life. While an understanding and knowledge of the chemistry of life developed very rapidly, it took a surprisingly long time before thermodynamics began to be applied to biological processes–in fact almost 100 years after the appearance of the laws.

2.1.1 Thermodynamics and Complex Systems It is self-evident that some aspects of thermodynamics must apply to living organisms because life clearly depends critically on cell temperature. For humans death occurs for temperatures transgressing the quite limited range of 32–42C. But why should this be? Thermodynamics can provide the answer. While, as has been noted already, applying the laws of thermodynamics to life processes is really a rather recent scientific endeavour [2], the substantive literature goes back no further than 1970, it is known that Erwin Schrodinger (1887–1961) cogitated on entropy, and its relevance to cell biology, around the time of the Second World War [3]. He noted that life was comprised of two fundamental mechanisms: one ‘order from order’ and the other ‘order from disorder’. The inference was that living things, by reversing entropy, endeavour to defy the second law of thermodynamics. In a lecture delivered in Dublin in 1943, Schroedinger asked [3]: How does an organism concentrate a stream of order on itself and thus escape the decay of atomic chaos mandated by the second law of thermodynamics?

2.1 Bioenergetics

27

In examining life through the prism of thermodynamics, it is inevitable that the teleological ‘what is life?’ or the rather different ‘what is life for?’ question will also arise. Many writers of science, philosophy and theology, countless authors of fiction and a myriad of poets have attempted to answer such questions, with varying degrees of success. However, in ‘A History of Thermodynamics’, Ingo Muller1 boldly provides the following concise and pragmatic definition, ‘‘Life is the indefinite working of a complex machinery’’. As an applied scientist I find that it is not too difficult to sympathise with this utilitarian offering. Of course complexity has to be defined, otherwise a solar powered calculator, which arguably accords with the definition to a very minimal level, would have to be considered to be alive?

2.1.2 Negentropy On the theme of complexity, Schneider [4]1 has observed that: Organisms do not maintain their complexity, and become more complex, in a vacuum. Their high organisation and low entropy is made up for by pollution, heat, and entropic export to their surroundings.

Living organisms and plants cheat the second law by sustaining themselves on low entropy energy sources (negentropy) in their environment, while spreading disorder and raising the entropy of the local environment through waste products.

2.1.3 Cellular Factory In the study of energy flows in the interior of the cells of living organisms, the term cellular factory is often used to help make comprehensible the complex processes which are carried out within their miniscule volumes. Animal cells range in size (major dimension) from approximately 10 microns to about 100 microns, where a micron is one thousandth of a millimetre. They are small, but obviously not so small that elaborate molecular activity is not possible. The essential nature of the ‘cellular factory’, which has been attributed with the ability to seemingly defy the second law, can be found in many texts on biochemistry [5]. As a non-biologist I 1

A thorough and comprehensive exposition of the notion that complex life forms on this planet, and perhaps others, have evolved in response to thermodynamic imperatives in order to mitigate or dissipate gradients in their environment, much as a tornado, which is also a complex system, can develop to degrade temperature and pressure gradients in the atmosphere. The presentation style is disconcertingly variable but otherwise for a science text it is not a difficult read. It contains at least one minor error, which James Clerk Maxwell, if he were alive, might consider to be serious. He would be ‘hypercycling in his grave’ if he could know that he had been described as English.

28

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

Fig. 2.1 Chemical structure of adenosine triphosphate (ATP)

have no intention of delving, or even dipping, into the wide and deep ‘oceans’ of biochemistry. Here, I shall merely attempt to provide a prop for examining cellular energy processes, with the eventual aim of demonstrating that what happens within cells is entirely consistent with the laws of thermodynamics. The state-of-the-art in biological thermodynamics will be explored in this chapter, focusing particularly on its capacity to rationalise those energetic life processes, which were considered to be ‘mysterious’, and beyond science, in the not too distant past. Cellular activity results from the release of chemical binding potential stored in molecules such as adenosine triphosphate (ATP—see Fig. 2.1), or perhaps triphosphates of other nuclei. For a simple cell, such as in a bacterium (technically a prokaryote which possesses cells with no distinct nucleus) the formation of ATP and the use of its energy for macromolecular synthesis (biomass formation), for chemical transport and for other cellular functions, are core parts of its operation. For more complex organisms (eukaryotes–organisms whose cells are enclosed in a membrane and possess a nucleus—Fig. 2.2) the primary energy producing cellular constituents are the mitochondria which convert oxidation energy into the chemical potential, carried by the ubiquitous ATP, to the ‘machine tools’ of the ‘cellular factory’. It has been realised for some time that eukaryote cells are actually the composite result of ancient mutualistic relationships between more primitive organisms. In these mutualistic interactions individuals of two, or perhaps more, species cooperate to their mutual benefit. It seems clear from the genetic record, that originally independent energy-producing bacterial cells, were gradually incorporated into larger bacterial arrangements that were early ancestors of the cells of plants and animals. These energy-producing prokaryotes, as sub-units within the host cell, evolved into energy mobilising mechanisms–the mitochondria as illustrated schematically in Fig. 2.2. In size the mitochondria are typically 10–15 times smaller than the host cell and about 1,000–2,000 times smaller in volume. ATP is often called the ‘molecular unit of currency’ of intracellular energy transfer, because it, like money, facilitates work. By organic standards it is a small molecule. An oxygen atom is 0.06 nm (0.06 9 10-9 m) in radius, so a molecule such as ATP (Fig. 2.1) is unlikely to stretch over more than about 5 nm. ATP transports chemical energy within cells for metabolism. Metabolic processes that use ATP as

2.1 Bioenergetics

29

Fig. 2.2 Biological cell structure 1. Nucleolus; 2. Nucleus: 3. Ribosome: 4. Vesicle: 5. Rough endoplasmic reticulum: 6. Golgi apparatus: 7. Cytoskeleton: 8. Smooth endoplasmic reticulum: 9. Mitochondria: 10. Vacuole: 11. Cytosol: 12. Lysosome: 13. Centriole

an energy source convert it back into its primary constituents as energy is extracted. This means that it is continuously recycled within organisms. In the case of the human body, cells, on average, turn over their own weight in ATP each day. The proportion of mitochondria in a cell depends very much on its function. For example, 20% of the volume of the host cell could be occupied by mitochondria, in cells located in the muscular tissue of an animal, where energy is required quickly. The main elements of a eukaryote cell are detailed in Fig. 2.2 for completeness, but most are not significant contributors to the energy transport phenomenon and need not concern us further. It is perhaps relevant to note here that the discovery of ATP in 1929 is attributed to Karl Lohmann, but its precise structure was not determined until some considerable time later. In 1941 Fritz Albert Lipman (1899–1986) proposed that ATP was the main energy-transfer molecule in the cell, and the molecule was artificially synthesized for the first time by Alexander Todd (1907–1997) after the passage of another seven years [6, 7].

2.2 Photosynthesis In the industrialised world, where most children are lucky enough to attend a school or college, and receive an education with a smattering of science in the curriculum, few people will not know that living organisms are made up of mainly carbon, hydrogen and oxygen, and that the atoms of these elements cycle through plants and animals powered by energy from the sun. They will have been taught

30

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

that plants absorb water from the soil and carbon dioxide from the air to create tissue, through photosynthesis, thereby releasing oxygen. On the other hand, animals use oxygen to break down food—mainly plant tissue—releasing in the process, carbon dioxide and water. A symbiotic relationship between plant life and animal life has clearly evolved. It is probably true to say that a scientific theory, which fully explains all biological processes has yet to be established, but that one will, is just a matter of time. While some aspects of the thermodynamics of living things are not fully resolved, there is hardly any dubiety that the biological sciences [6], which concentrate largely on the organic chemistry, are to all intents and purposes fully formulated. As a result many text books now exist which comprehensively illuminate the structure and role of the complex macromolecules associated with organisms, how they are formed and their functions in the multitude of component parts embedded in, and composing, the structure of their cells and tissue. On the other hand, the thermodynamics governing the energetic processes, which ultimately drive the organic chemistry of living cells and organisms, is seldom fully developed in standard texts. This being the case we will concentrate here on the maturing thermodynamics and mostly leave the settled organic chemistry to others.

2.2.1 Energetic Aspects of Photosynthesis The chemistry of photosynthesis, whereby photon bombardment of plants, enables the plant to produce glucose (a form of sugar), and hence leaf tissue, from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) is well established [5]. The stoichiometric equation describing the process is as follows: 6CO2 þ 6H2 O ) C6 H12 O6 þ 6O2

ð2:1Þ

The first term on the right hand side is of course glucose, and helpfully for animals, the process also generates oxygen. In words, the equation expresses the fact that within the cellular spaces of the leaf, and facilitated by energy extracted from photon2 bombardment, six molecules of carbon dioxide and six molecules of water can be made to combine to generate one molecule of glucose and six of oxygen. For the above chemical reaction it is known that it generates or emits heat resulting in a change in chemical energy (dU) of an amount equal to 2,798 kJ/mol, while the entropy of the leaf decreases by –241 J/mol K. A mole of glucose is the weight in kilograms of an amount which contains the same number of molecules as there are carbon atoms in 12 g of carbon 12. The entropy decrease suggests that glucose is more ordered than the original constituents, which is not surprising since it is more complex than the original molecules. What is surprising is the 2 The word ‘photon’ is used here and throughout this book to imply power density flow in electromagnetic waves. It has a very specific frequency dependent magnitude only for atomic absorption and emission at the infrared and light portions of the spectrum.

2.2 Photosynthesis

31

expenditure or emission of energy. Using the above numbers, the basic Gibbs equation for T = 298 K and constant volume gives: dG ¼ dU TdS ¼ 2; 870 kJ=mol

ð2:2Þ

But a decrease in entropy requires that energy must be injected into the system– the free energy should be negative. So, at first sight, photosynthesis seems to disobey the laws of thermodynamics? The entropy decrease, sometimes referred to as negentropy, is possible because of the continuous supply of photon energy, which is absorbed by the plant. This energy is not reflected in the chemical reaction detailed above. As Schrodinger has noted: ‘‘These (the plants) of course have their most powerful supply of negative entropy in the sunlight’’. This supply comes from the solar photons and in particular those with frequencies in the orange/red end of the spectrum. Higher frequency photons in the green/blue spectrum are reflected by the plant leaf, and hence foliage is basically green.

2.2.2 Gibbs Input to Photosynthesis Actually, the Gibbs equation (Eq. 2.2) used above is incomplete for a system exchanging matter with its environment–an ‘open system’. Various forms of ‘free energy’ can enter a thermodynamic system, through the agency of chemical substances, through electrical and magnetic fields and even gravitational fields can be a source of energy. The general Gibbs equation has the form [5] dG ¼ dUs TdSs þ PdVs X li dni þ Ede þ Gg dm þ rdA þ Te d‘ þ R dm

ð2:3Þ

Here, dUs is the change in system energy, dQ = TdSs is the heat exchanged during the thermodynamic process and PdVs is work done (cf. Eq. 9.3). Terms 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 on the right hand of this equation represent respectively energy changes associated with electric charge, gravitational forces, surface tension, elasticity and magnetisation, and are generally insignificant in biological systems. The interesting addition to the equation is term 4 on the right hand side which represents material change [5]. In this term, li represents the chemical potential of each of the i materials involved and dni denotes the increase or decrease in moles of the material (see Chap. 10). For a plant, therefore, the thermodynamic equation becomes: X dG ¼ dUs TdSs þ PdVs li dni ð2:4Þ As we have seen from Eq. 2.2 the first two terms on the right of the equals sign give an energy expenditure in photosynthesis of 2,870 kJ/mol; so what about the third and fourth terms?

32

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

The plant, as a thermodynamic system, exchanges photons with its surroundings, it absorbs carbon dioxide and it is a conduit for water. The flow of thermal energy occurs in essentially three ways; through conduction, convection, and radiation. If a leaf is cooler than the surrounding air, the higher energy air molecules colliding with its surface will transfer heat to the leaf. Convection is the flow of thermal energy which is concomitant with the flow of matter. In the case of a plant this flow is water, drawn up through its roots and evaporating at the surface of its foliage. Finally there is absorption and radiation of electromagnetic waves, or photons, mainly at optical and infrared frequencies. The theory is encapsulated by the idea of a ‘black body’, which is non- reflecting. This is obviously not wholly true of a plant which reflects green light. The radiation from a black body is produced by the vibrating electric charges in the randomly agitated molecules within it. The hotter the body, the greater is the agitation. According to Max Planck (1858–1947) the re-radiated photons (as A.H. Compton (1892–1962) was later to call them) have much lower energy than the absorbed light, and must therefore have a lower frequency. In fact the approximate relationship is given by: fmax ¼ 103 T GHz

ð2:5Þ

where fmax is the frequency of maximum radiation and T is the temperature in degrees Kelvin. So for a leaf at about 35C or 308 K the radiation emitted is at a frequency in the vicinity of 31.7 THz, which is infrared. The solar photon striking the leaf and supplying the energy for photosynthesis exert pressure in the surface of the leaf (P) which contributes to a minute change in volume [6]. By estimating the change in momentum of the incident photons it is possible to determine that P ¼ 13u N=m2 where u is the energy density in W/m3 of the incident electromagnetic waves. The third term in Eq. 2.4 is no longer zero and has magnitude 13udV. It will be negative since dV is negative. Finally, the fourth term in Eq. 2.4, which is the material transference term, provides the means of accommodating, into the energy inventory, the movement of water through the plant.

2.2.3 Energy Conservation for Plants Given the average power density of the sun’s rays striking the Earth, which is well known from the solar constant (1,341 W/m2), it is not difficult to assess that a leaf receives 650 W/m2 of light. For a leaf at temperature T K black body radiation dictates an energy emission rate of: c 4 c aT W=m2 where a ¼ 5:67 108 W=m2 K4 ð2:6Þ 4 4 Therefore, at a typical temperature of 35C, it becomes possible to demonstrate that for a leaf, the power density conditions set out below are applicable. It is assumed that the leaf is efficiently using up energy to produce glucose, at a rate that absorbs power density p. Hence we have:

2.2 Photosynthesis

c Power density emitted ¼ aT 4 þ p ¼ 446:25 þ 4:3 ¼ 450:5 W/m2 4 Power density received ¼ 650 W/m2

33

ð2:7Þ

If power conservation and the first law are to be obeyed, as they must, the emitted power should equate to the received power. The indicated difference is solved by incorporating the latent heat of evaporation into the Gibbs equation through the ‘material’ term. A plant draws much more water (500 times more) from the ground than is required to form glucose. The rest is used to cool its leaves. Thus the photon power density absorbed by a leaf is largely counterbalanced by black body radiation and the latent heat of condensation. Just enough photon energy remains to power the negentropy, and hence the growth of the plant. In fact, of the solar radiation absorbed by the plant tissue, possibly as little as 1% of what is captured (in turn only a small fraction of the total radiation striking the leaves) is converted to biomass and hence into plant growth. About 15% of the radiation bombarding the plant is reflected, 18% is turned into sensible heat while of the order of 66% is used to provide the energy required by the plant to lift water up to the leaves where it evaporates. For plant metabolism the thermodynamic laws are thus satisfied, and we can conclude that for plants at least in quasi-equilibrium conditions, a ‘water tight’ scientific explanation exists as to how it can defy, for a while at least, the relentless march of decay and disorder, and hence of increasing entropy, as required by the second law. Negative entropy is not a unique property of life—but it seems to be a characteristic of life as we shall see. Decreasing entropy is also in evidence in the formation of, for example, diamond or coal, when carbon is exposed to very high pressures, and temperatures, deep within a planet such as the Earth—but considerable levels of energy are required and much more per unit weight than is needed by the mechanisms of life. Manifestly, a source of energy, ultimately the Sun in our solar system, is required to flout the second law [4].

2.3 Animal Metabolism Metabolism, the chemical and thermodynamic process associated with the maintenance of life in animals, can be described in energetic terms quite straightforwardly as follows. When air is drawn into the lungs, the mainly oxygen content is ‘burned’ to form carbon dioxide and water. Obviously carbon (in the exhaled CO2) and hydrogen (in the ejected H2O) must be present in the ‘substance’ which facilitates, or powers, the combustion. The substance, and the energy which it supplies, cannot be derived from anything other than the food eaten by the animal. If there were any other source starving people would not die! But how does the combustion proceed and how is the energy employed? And can this process be fully explained by chemistry and the laws of thermodynamics?

34

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

The organic chemistry of living creatures [5] was well established during the nineteenth century and, perhaps not surprisingly, some scientists, for example the chemist J.J. Berzelius (1779–1848), even considered that conventional chemistry and organic chemistry were quite distinct subjects. In fact in Berzelius’ time the notion had taken hold that a vis viva, or life force, or ‘spark of life’, permeated living bodies. Consequently, it is hardly surprising that science has been slow to recognise that the chemical reactions, which characterise life, are powered thermodynamically. We will concentrate on these processes here. The application of thermodynamics to metabolism in living organisms probably began with the discoverer of oxygen, Joseph Priestly (1733–1804), who was first to record that oxygen in the air was depleted by breathing animals, and that the air was refreshed by plants. This activity, termed respiration, was comprehensively investigated by Henry Cavendish (1731–1810) and others, with initial findings demonstrating that a kind of combustion proceeds within the cells of the body resulting in oxygen from the inhaled air being partly consumed and turned into carbon dioxide and water. Clearly the substance fuelling the ‘combustion’ had to contain carbon and hydrogen, and it had to be supplied to the living entity through its intake of food. Quite early in the study of respiration it became apparent that food comprised three main ingredients: carbohydrates, lipids and proteins.

2.3.1 Foodstuffs Carbohydrates comprise most of the organic matter on Earth because they form an essential component of the biological tissue of all forms of life. Typical food crops containing high levels of the material are cereals, vegetables and fruit. In organic terms they are actually relatively simple compounds. The basic carbohydrate units are called hexoses (monosaccharides); examples of which are glucose, galactose, and fructose. The general stoichiometric formula of an unmodified monosaccharide is (CH2O)n. The subscript n in this formula is a whole number which may be equal to three or greater; for example C6H12O6 for sugar. However, not all carbohydrates conform to this precise stoichiometric chemical formula (e.g., uronic acids and deoxy-sugars such as fucose), nor are all chemicals that do conform to this definition automatically classified as carbohydrates [5]. The three main phases of energy production are detailed in Table 2.1. Lipids are fats, and they exist in many forms. Chemically they are very complex, although still, as with carbohydrates, constructed from only carbon, hydrogen and oxygen atoms. A typical representative [1] of this compound is oleine C57H104O6, which is present in olive oil, palm oil, whale oil, and cod liver oil. On the other hand, protein (from the Greek pqxseimg meaning in the lead), differs from carbohydrates and lipids in that its molecules contain atoms of elements other than carbon, hydrogen and oxygen, such as nitrogen and miniscule amounts of

2.3 Animal Metabolism

35

Table 2.1 The three main phases of energy production from foodstuffs

sulphur and phosphorus. The simplest source of protein is egg white, but of course as a food, protein occurs mainly in meat. For an animal fed on sugar (C6H12O6), as a very particular, but limited example, if the respiratory process involves the chemical ‘combustion’ of the sugar with oxygen, to produce carbon dioxide and water, then the following stoichiometric formula should apply: 1 C6 H12 O6 þ O2 ) CO2 þ H2 O 6

ð2:8Þ

For fats and proteins, with more complex chemical structures, the corresponding formulae are obviously less simple, but they reflect similar interactions. The oxygen on the left side of the equation is inhaled in the respiratory process, while the carbon dioxide on the right is exhaled. The ratio of the exhaled carbon dioxide to the inhaled oxygen is termed the respiratory quotient (RQ). The formula above suggests that for a sugar diet it should be equal to unity [1]. Every molecule of oxygen is matched by a molecule of carbon dioxide. For a lipid, or a fat diet, the equivalent formula gives a value of 0.71—i.e., a 100 molecules of oxygen generate 71 molecules of CO2. A protein rich diet gives a number, which lies between these, in the vicinity of 0.8. This means that if basic chemistry is enough to account for the respiratory mechanism in animals the RQ must fall between 0.71 and 1.0, for

36

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

primary foodstuffs. Careful experimentation on animals and humans has demonstrated that this is in fact the case [1]. The biological chemistry of respiration is a large and complex topic [6–8] and only the mildest flavour of it is presented above, in order to provide some essential background for examination of metabolic energy flows, which is what concerns us here. We would like to know if metabolism can be explained mechanistically in terms of thermodynamic laws, much as the chemistry of respiration has been elucidated by chemical science. Metabolism emanates from the Greek lesabokg which means change. It describes the chemical and energy changes, taking place within living organisms, which are a prerequisite of them continuing to function.

2.3.2 Energy Extraction The basic energy content of the food materials listed above can be easily deduced from the heat generated by these substances, when burned in a closed vessel or calorimeter. The values obtained are 17.1 MJ/g for sugar, 39.5 MJ/g for lipids and 23.6 MJ/g for proteins, and represents the potential energy in the electrical forces binding the carbon, hydrogen and oxygen atoms together. So how is this energy accessed by metabolic ‘combustion’? Self evidently extraction of food energy in the digestive tract of an animal is quite different from burning in air. For one thing the process is much slower and proceeds at body temperature, typically 37C. This temperature is critical. It was Linus Pauling (1901–1994), winner of the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 1954, who discovered that hydrogen atoms in protein macromolecules are bonded weakly to their neighbours, and as a result such molecules can become quite unstable as the temperature climbs above 37C. Forty two degree celsius represents the upper limit for retention of molecular completeness, and once this temperature is reached cellular structure begins to disintegrate. To destroy the biological integrity in an organism by eradicating active protein requires a specific energy level termed the inactivation value. Some values for dU and dS for a range of biochemical proteins are shown in Table 2.2. The inactivation processes are exponential and can be modelled using: N ¼ N0 exp½k1 t

ð2:9Þ

where N is the current amount of active protein, N0 is the original amount, while t is time and k1 is a constant which is a function of internal chemical and thermal energy (enthalpy) and entropy. Consequently, by employing mean values for dU and dS (see Table 2.2), which can reasonably be presumed to represent protein biomass, it is possible [6] to compute the protein replacement rate as a function of temperature to maintain healthy cells. The result is shown in Fig. 2.3 together with some statistical numbers for animal and bird species which, not surprisingly, exhibit temperature regulation values which lie at specific values within the plotted range. The inference is that birds and animals function in accordance with the

2.3 Animal Metabolism

37

Table 2.2 Thermal inactivation of proteins and related systems in aqueous solution Substance DH (kJ/mole) DS (J/mole/K) Insulin Trypsin Catalase Pepsin Peroxidase (milk) Enterokinase Trypsin kinase Proteinase (pancreatic) Amalase malt Emulsin Leucosin Hemoglobin Hemolysin (goat) Vibriolysin Tetanolysin Rennen Egg albumin pH 5.7 pH 3.4 pH 1.35 Yeast invertase pH 5.7 pH 5.2 pH 4.0 pH 3.0 Inactivation of tobacco mosaic virus Inactivation of T1 bacteriophage Average

149.0 168.2 211.3 232.6 775.3 176.4 185.2 158.4 174.1 187.9 352.7 316.3 828.4 535.6 722.4 373.6 561.9 405.0 147.3

99.6 187.0 339.0 474.0 1,949.7 220.9 241.0 169.9 218.8 273.2 774.0 638.9 2,246.8 1,364.0 1,920.5 870.3 1,326.7 936.0 151.9

219.2 361.5 461.9 311.3

354.3 774.0 1,098.3 637.6

167.4 397.5 375.4

75.3 866.1 819.2

thermodynamic imperative and regulate at temperatures which are well below the range where their cells are endangered by a high rate of protein denaturation. To induce a quantity of sugar to burn in air requires a significant amount of energy of ignition, or activation energy. This is, of course, not possible in a biological process. The activation energy has to come indirectly from catalysers, termed ferments. More recently these ferments have been identified as enzymes, which are now known to be basically protein molecules. So, when an animal consumes sugar, lipids or protein, the energy contained in the molecules of these foods has to gravitate to the cells that need it. The requirement is that the chemical constituents of the food in the animal’s digestive system, such as glucose, fatty acids and amino acids should reach the liver, the blood and the muscles. The body cannot absorb the large molecules, which characterises food, so they must be dissembled in a process termed catabolism (from the Greek jasabokg, meaning break down).

38

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

Fig. 2.3 Number of species (mammals – chain-dotted curve: birds—dashed curve) regulating at defined temperatures plotted alongside protein turnover rate (molecules/second times 10-7) as a function of temperature (solid curve) on the right hand scale

2.3.3 Catabolism It is in the mouth that the catalytic action on food begins. Saliva contains the enzyme amylase which is able to decompose starch, disrupting links between glucose molecules. If kept long enough in the mouth bread develops a sweet taste as a result. Lower down the digestive tract other enzymes take over and by the time the food leaves the small intestine it is largely deconstructed into simpler molecules—starch into glucose, lipids into fatty acids and proteins into amino acids. Substances which fail to break down are excreted. The catalytic processes are exothermic (heat emitting) but the amounts of heat are small. The broken down products, namely glucose, fatty acids and amino acids, are now able to percolate through the intestinal membranes into the biological tissue which is seeking sources of energy. Further breakdown to extract energy eventually leads to carbon dioxide and water and urea. While glucose, and other simpler food derived molecules enter the biological tissue from the gut, oxygen enters from the lungs. It is then transported to tissue cells by means of blood, or more precisely the red blood cells or haemoglobin. The catalysed chemical reaction of glucose with oxygen is as follows: C6 H12 O6 þ 6O2 ) 6CO2 þ 6H2 O

ð2:10Þ

To make this reaction proceed, an energy absorption (dU) of –2,798 kJ/mol is involved, and a change in entropy of 241 kJ/mol K also occurs. The Gibbs free

2.3 Animal Metabolism

39

energy at 37C is therefore –2,873 kJ/mol. This negative free energy, representing energy absorbed, is contrary to the increase in entropy which the decomposition invites. Furthermore, rather than a sink, we are looking for a chemical source of power, which can provide enough energy to power cellular growth (entropy decrease) and to at least keep the animal alive—the basal metabolic rate. The catabolic chemical reaction is manifestly not the whole story in assessing the thermodynamics of life. The metabolic process evidently involves much more than the respiration, as summarised above [1]. In addition to burning energy animals grow. They are able to produce new tissue from their food intake in a process termed anabolism–from the Greek amabokg which means to build up.

2.3.4 Divergence from Equilibrium The manner in which oxygen is consumed in the respiratory process, the formation of lactic acid, the Krebs cycle, the role of ATP molecules and glucose phosphate in anabolism, have been gradually divulged by pioneering chemists such as Heinrich O. Wieland (1877–1957), Otto H. Warburg (1883–1970), Hans A. Krebs (1900–1981) and Fritz A. Lipman, among others. The decomposition of glucose in biological tissue clearly occurs in parallel with anabolic activity. In the ‘cellular factory’, glucose is the source of glucose phosphate which in turn is manufactured into glycogen and phosphoric acid, while the ATP’s carry their energy to the ‘machine tools’, where biomass is created by cell division. In thermodynamic terms, the large amount of energy contained in food is decomposed by tissue respiration into small parcels which are capable of being used in molecular level anabolic processes. The decrease in entropy associated with developing cells is related to the increasing molecular order which is provided by the formation of the chain molecules characteristic of glycogen. This is an exothermic process and so the thermodynamics can be shown to be in accordance with the dictates of Gibbs, when all the relevant terms are included. As Racker [9] has expressed it: ….a cell that wants to live economically must be able to control the consumption of energy yielding substrates. The basic principle of the control that governs both glycolysis and oxidation is brilliant and simple: ATP is generated only when it is needed.

In addition to its requirement for cellular maintenance and warding off denaturation, energy is also required for synthesis and muscle power. The bio-energetic calculations have been pursued by Morowitz [5] in ‘‘Foundations of Bioenergetics’’. Inadequacies in the available data on the energies involved in biological processes and on some aspects of macromolecular chemistry, forces Morowitz to note that it was not possible: to carry out the calculations in a completely satisfactory manner, nonetheless, the equipment is at hand with which to thoroughly study energetic and entropic book-keeping in living cells and organisms.

40

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

Part of the problem, is that conventional thermodynamics is directed towards understanding and analysing systems at equilibrium. The dilemma has been addressed by Morowitz and others, as we shall see. Interestingly, the incompatibility of life and equilibrium is succinctly expressed by making a quite simple cellular calculation [5]. Suppose that we are given a 1 litre jar containing a liquid soup replete with the monomer molecules necessary for a living cell to form. A monomer is a molecule capable of reacting repeatedly with other monomers to form a polymer. The question asked by Morowitz was—what is the probability that a living cell will appear spontaneously in this equilibrium ensemble? Using the probability formula (Boltzmann factor—see Sect. 1.3) expressed in the form: PL ¼ exp

dGcell kT

ð2:11Þ

he was able to calculate that, at normal atmospheric temperature, where the Gibbs free energy change for cell formation is known, the probability of a cell of mass 12 10–10 g evolving in the postulated fluid sample, is PL ¼ 103:410 : This is so vanishingly small that it suggests that life could never have arisen in an equilibrium ocean of the ‘primordial soup’ on the ancient Earth; not even in the entire time that the planet has existed.

2.3.5 Life and Equilibrium Thermodynamics Nevertheless equilibrium thermodynamics has established some important facts about life processes. Living organisms, must obey the laws of chemistry, but just as importantly, as we have seen, they are constrained by the laws of thermodynamics. In Chap. 1, we noted that the second law of thermodynamics states that in any system, which is detached from its environment, entropy (disorder) must increase as thermodynamic action progresses (dSs [ 0). While the complexity of living organisms appears to permit them to contradict this fundamental law allowing dSi \ 0, but this is not so. Organisms are open systems that exchange matter and energy with their surroundings, and for the system as a whole (organism ? surroundings) dS u= dSi + dSe [ 0, where dSi is the incremental entropy for the irreversible organic system, while dSe is the corresponding quantity for its environment. Furthermore, living systems are not in equilibrium, but instead are dissipative and irreversible systems that maintain their state of high complexity by causing a larger increase in the entropy of their environments than would otherwise have been the case in their absence. The metabolism of a cell accomplishes this by coupling the spontaneous processes of catabolism to the nonspontaneous, DNA controlled, processes of anabolism. In thermodynamic terms, metabolism maintains order by creating disorder. Even as far back as 1944, Schrodinger recognised that an organism stays alive in its highly organised state by

2.3 Animal Metabolism

41

taking energy from outside of itself, from a larger encompassing system, and processing it to produce, within itself, a lower entropy more organised state, while adding to the entropy of the environment as a whole in accordance with the second law. He answered his own question, recorded at the beginning of this chapter as follows [3]: … by eating, drinking, breathing and, in the case of plants, assimilating. The technical term is metabolism. The Greek word ….means change or exchange. Exchange of what? What then is that precious something contained in our food which keeps us from death? That is easily answered. Every process, event, happening – call it what you will; in a word, everything that is going on in nature means an increase of the entropy of the part of the world where it is going on. Thus a living organism continually increases its entropy – or as you might say, produces positive entropy – and thus tends to approach the dangerous state of maximum entropy, which is death. It can only keep aloof from it, i.e. alive, by continually drawing from its environment negative entropy – which is something positive as we shall immediately see. What an organism feeds upon is negative entropy. Or, to put it less paradoxically, the essential thing in metabolism is that the organism succeeds in freeing itself from all entropy it cannot help producing while alive.

The unavoidable conclusion is that, for all organisms, the life process itself can be fully explained in scientific and mechanistic terms. As Schneider and Sagan observe: The chemistry of our bodies obeys all the laws of thermodynamics; life, like the universe, flows thermodynamically downstream. We are whirling eddies in a thermodynamic sea, part of the process of a universe alive with energy [4].

Albert Szent-Gyorgi [10] has summarised the physical principles rather elegantly as follows: It is common knowledge that the ultimate source of all our energy and negative entropy is the radiation of the sun. When a photon interacts with a material particle on our globe, it lifts one electron from an electron pair to a higher level. This excited state as a rule has but a short lifetime and the electron drops back within 10-7 to 10-8 s to the ground state giving off an excess of energy in one way or another. Life has learned to catch the electron in the excited state, uncouple it from its partner, and let it drop back to the ground state through its biological machinery utilizing its excess energy for life processes.

It is probably fair to say that all the fundamental chemical and thermodynamic interactions in metabolism have now been identified, and that the available science plainly demonstrates that ‘life’, or the processes of life, can be explained coherently and accurately by the physical laws that govern these topics, and no more than these laws is needed to do so. No vis viva is required to make sense of it. The energetic processes, which are intrinsic to the existence of living organisms, are largely explicable, as we have seen, by intelligent application of the laws of thermodynamics. However, as is often the case in science, the solution of one conundrum merely leads to another. In bioenergetics the supervening question is this. What is the purpose of the emergence of complex energy

42

2 Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Life

processing organic molecules, on a planet in at least one seemingly unremarkable solar system, near the periphery of the Milky Way galaxy? Interestingly attempts to address this question through the agency of thermodynamics have been reported in the literature. In the next chapter we shall review this endeavour, and in so doing provide a gateway into the evolving topic of non-equilibrium thermodynamics, which is highly germane to the analysis of energy flows in living systems.

References 1. Muller I (2007) A history of thermodynamics. Springer, Berlin 2. Schneider ED, Kay JJ (1994) Life is a manifestation of the second law of thermodynamics. Math Comput Model 19(6–8):25–48 3. Schroedinger E (1945) What is life? The physical aspect of the living cell. Cambridge University Press, New York 4. Schneider, ED, Sagan, D (2005) Into the Cool. Chicago University Press, Chicago 5. Morowitz H (1978) Foundations of bioenergetics. Academic Press Inc. London 6. Sadava D, Craig Heller H, Orians GH, Purves WK, Hillis D (2008) Life: the science of biology, 8th edn. W.H.Freeman & Co, Boston 7. Rose S, Mileusnic R (1999) The chemistry of life. Penguin Press Science, London 8. Demirel Y, Sandler S (2002) Thermodynamics and bioenergetics. Biophys Chem 97(2–3): 87–111 9. Racker E (1976) A new look at mechanisms in bioenergetics. Academic Press Inc. London 10. Szent-Gyorgi A (1961) Light and life. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore

Chapter 3

Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics Major mysteries of the origins of life, evolutionary biology, and ecology become not only clearer, but fundamentally comprehensible, in the light of non-equilibrium thermodynamics E.D. Schneider & D. Sagan The more a system is moved from equilibrium, the more sophisticated its mechanisms for resisting being moved from equilibrium E.D. Schneider & J.J. Kay

3.1 Gradient Degradation and Complex Structures In his pioneering book on energy flow in biological systems Morowitz [1] postulates that: In steady state systems, the flow of energy through the system from a source to a sink, will lead to at least one cycle in the system.

This statement has, on occasion, been raised to the status of a fourth law of thermodynamics. It points to life resembling cycles existing in open thermodynamic systems wherever gradients, or energy flows, occur. Schneider and Sagan [2] also argue that cycles in open systems are precursors of ‘‘growth, complexity and ultimately evolution by the reproduction of variants’’. They suggest that: Replication only makes sense thermodynamically as part of a process of stable gradient degradation.

So what is meant by gradient degradation, gradient driven order, complexity and cycles, in physical systems? As an applied scientist with a major interest in electromagnetism it would be difficult not be cognizant of the existence of ‘order from disorder’ phenomena which are not unfamiliar in many aspects of electrical science. However, that such phenomena have implications relating to thermodynamics, and the second law, is not so commonly known. Two routine examples of order from disorder in an electromagnetic context ‘spring to mind’, and these are elaborated upon below.

3.1.1 Induced Order in Magnetic Materials Despite the ubiquity of magnets, from fridge door decoration, to door latches, to toys, some aspects of the properties of magnetic materials are still not fully resolved, because magnetic effects are almost entirely quantum mechanical [3]. A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_3, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

43

44

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

Fig. 3.1 Magnetising of a rectangular ferromagnetic bar by means of an axial magnetic field. a Arbitrary orbits in the unmagnetised material and ordered, b directed orbits, in magnetised sample

Nevertheless classical magnetic theory provides a more than adequate, although at best only an approximate, explanation of the phenomenon. What is known is that magnetism, or more specifically magnetic fields, are generated by moving electrons. Within all materials, not just magnets, electrons within the constituent atoms, both orbit the nucleus, and spin on their own axes. These motions generate magnetic fields. In all non-magnetic materials these electron motions within the atom are entirely random and the atom as a whole normally possesses no magnetic effect. On the other hand in ferromagnetic materials the electron motions are not random and the atoms of the material can become, in essence, tiny circulating currents each possessing what is classically termed a dipole moment. The atoms are, in effect, miniscule magnets. However, in an unmagnetised sample of the material, the tiny current loops are randomly orientated, and there is no net magnetic effect. The system is at equilibrium. The situation is depicted crudely but effectively for a square cross-section magnetic bar in Fig. 3.1a where orbiting and spinning electrons within atoms are shown as circular loci in arbitrary orientations. Some appear elliptical since the circles are orientated out of the plane of the page. The picture changes completely when a magnetic field (magnetic potential gradient) is introduced as illustrated in Fig. 3.1b. Now, in this non-equilibrium condition, the dipole moments of the atomic magnets are drawn into alignment with the applied axial field so that all the tiny current loops are in unison over the cross-section shown, and of course any other cross-section of the bar, which we might choose to view. Perhaps the vision of a large troupe of ballerinas bedecked in tutus and twirling in unison will help consolidate the concept! The magnetic potential gradient down the length of the magnet creates order from disorder, the dipole alignment producing an internal field which reduces the strength of the applied field within the material. In electrical engineering this ‘reluctance’ effect is referred to as Lenz’s law. Once the magnetic field (or gradient) is removed the demands of the second law of thermodynamics reintroduce disorder. If the bar is at

3.1 Gradient Degradation and Complex Structures

45

a temperature well above absolute zero thermal agitation of the atoms will gradually disrupt the orbital alignment. It should be noted that the process of magnetising and demagnetising is profoundly non-linear.

3.1.2 Electrically Induced Order Electric fields, which provide the means of depicting potential gradients between spatially separate locations differing in voltage, also produce ‘order from disorder’ in certain dielectric materials. A good example is water. If two flat metal plates, separated by a small distance with the flat surfaces parallel to each other (essentially a capacitor), are immersed in distilled water, the water molecules will be profoundly influenced by the application of a voltage between the plates. Water is a polar material, because the H2O molecule is asymmetric. While each hydrogen atom is strongly bonded by sharing electrons covalently with the oxygen atom, the electron cloud of the molecule tends to favour the oxygen nucleus leaving the hydrogen nuclei exposed. In her elegantly written book entitled ‘The Cannon’, Angier [4] expresses the relationship picturesquely as follows: the molecule ‘‘is best exemplified by the stridently unserious image of Mickey Mouse ….. with the head representing oxygen, the ears the two hydrogen atoms covalently linked to it’’. Because of the asymmetry ‘‘the ears of the Mickey molecule have a slight positive charge ….. the bottom half of the mouse face has a five o’clock shadow of modest negative charge’’. In a mass of water the ‘‘chins of one molecule are drawn to the ears of another’’ so that water molecules cling together just enough to give it its liquid properties. This dipole bond, or hydrogen bond as it is more commonly called, is only about one tenth as strong as the covalent bond binding the ‘ears to the head’. Under normal circumstances the loosely bonded water molecules are quite randomly orientated. However, these dipolar water molecules are very susceptible to electric field, so that when the flat metal plates are subjected to a voltage difference, the ‘ears’ are attracted to the negative plate, and the ‘chins’ to the positive plate. The dipoles become strongly aligned and the water becomes polarised. This alignment is in a direction which opposes the applied field, thus reducing the gradient. Furthermore, at the molecular level, the structure of the water between the plates has become highly ordered. In both of the above examples the second law of thermodynamics is ‘at play’. The degree to which a system deviates from equilibrium is defined by the gradients imposed upon it. Consequently, the second law for a non-equilibrium system can be restated as [5]: The thermodynamic principle which governs the behaviour of systems is that as they are moved away from equilibrium, they will utilise all avenues available to counter the applied gradients. As the applied gradients increase, so does the system’s ability to oppose further movement from equilibrium.

While an external source of energy is available (magnetic and electric respectively) a low entropy ordered molecular system can be imposed and

46

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

maintained. Note that for the entire system (magnet/capacitor ? energy source ? environment) energy is dissipated while the applied fields are in force. On removal of the external energy sources, a gradual molecular dis-alignment will ensue and the production of heat will be observed during the randomising process and the return to equilibrium. The entropy of the subsystem will increase as it progresses from non-equilibrium to equilibrium. On the other hand, the entropy of the subsystem plus its environment can only increase. It should be noted that these observations are fully supported by the results obtained from a recent study of the behaviour of an elaborate electrical network, comprising capacitors and resistors, which has been modelled by Mikulecky [6]. The computations have prompted him to make the following conclusion: Here we see how the second law of thermodynamics translates into the reduction of the gradient with time. This simple system and its network thermodynamics is simply translated into a tendency for gradient reduction which is manifest only when the system is isolated and allowed to come to equilibrium. In non-equilibrium steady states, this tendency persists in the steady flow [of power] through the system resulting in the continual dissipation of energy.

Gradient reduction in the natural world is also common in relation to pressure, gravitational fields, temperature, and chemical potential. The dissipation of a pressure gradient is a fairly commonplace experience, and most people would be able to predict what should happen when two gas-tight flasks linked through a valve containing an isolating stop-cock, is filled with air under pressure in one flask only. They would suggest that on removing the restraint on the gas, by opening the stop-cock, the air pressure in each flask will quickly equalise as the system comes to equilibrium. The general rule for the process, which emanates from the laws of thermodynamics, is that when an isolated system performs a process after the removal of a series of internal constraints, it will reach a unique state of equilibrium: this state of equilibrium is independent of the order in which the constraints are removed [7].

In the case of our linked flasks, it matters not how many valves there are, and how fully, and in what sequence, they are opened, the final equilibrium condition of the gas is always the same.

3.1.3 Gravitationally Induced Order The gravitational force (gradient associated with potential energy) exerted by the earth on any object on the surface or above it is straightforwardly degraded by the body falling to the ground, or by ‘flattening’ itself onto the ground, or even better, by falling down a mine-shaft. However, more complex and efficient degrading processes exist, particularly in the case of, for example, fluids falling towards the centre of the earth. Water spiralling out of the bath outlet pipe, when the plug is removed, is finding the most efficient way of degrading the gradient between the

3.1 Gradient Degradation and Complex Structures

47

Fig. 3.2 Tornado in a bottle. a Slow turbulent flow, b Swift flow due to gradient degrading vortex

bath water and the main drain of the house, in which it is located. The rotational movement of the water is initiated by the random movements of the water, incurred by removal of the drain plug, and perhaps the shape of the drain itself. It has little to do with the Coriolis force, which is sometimes recruited to explain the direction of rotation; it is in fact quite arbitrary. However, the speed of rotation of the water is governed by the thermodynamic imperative to efficiently dissipate the gradient. The process is easily demonstrated by an experimental artefact described as a tornado in bottle [2]. It comprises two large Coke bottles joined together at the neck by means of a plastic tube (Fig. 3.2), which ideally should form a tight fit in each bottle. One bottle is full of water while the other is empty. With the full bottle located vertically, and still, above the empty one, water will flow turbulently, noisily and slowly into the lower vessel, as trapped air bubbles up into the chamber above (Fig. 3.2a). Emptying can take 5–10 min depending on tube aperture and bottle size. However, if the upper bottle is given a slight rotational swirl the flow situation is completely different. A vortex, not unlike at the bath tub out-flow, forms in the fluid forming a spiralling column around an air core (Fig. 3.2b). Air escapes to the upper bottle through this airway and the water gushes out of the upper vessel in seconds rather than minutes! The organised system degrades the gravitational gradient many times faster that when the fluid is turbulent and disorganised.

48

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics Here is a graphic example of the superior effectiveness of cyclical gradient reduction. The rate of drainage is predictable…….. The gravitational (potential) energy gradient is degraded not by a simple structure but by a highly complex 1–100 billion trillion water molecules spontaneously interact to form a twirling tunnel [2].

There are many examples of cycling, complex, organised dissipative structures in nature, such as tornados, twisters and whirlpools. These phenomena will persist as long as there are gradients to degrade, and they can last or ‘live’ a very long time, with an ‘independent’ existence, almost like a living organism. A well known example is the vast 2,000 year old tornado on Jupiter feeding on huge gradients in the turbulent atmosphere of that planet. The exact nature of these gradients remains to be ascertained. Like tornados on earth, it even has a name, Great Red Spot, in recognition of its uniqueness like an organism, or its ‘selfhood’.

3.1.4 Thermally Induced Structure The dissipation of a simple temperature gradient can also generate an amazing degree of complexity. When a volume of fluid, such as water, is trapped between a heat source below it and a cooler heat sink above, heat is carried from the source to the sink through the fluid either by conduction or convection. In the former more energetic molecules near the hot source, in randomly colliding with molecules at a higher level, further from the source, affect a gradual transfer of heat upwards through the liquid. However the molecular motions in the water remain random. In contrast, when convection takes over, molecular motions are no longer entirely random. Molecules begin to move in unison setting up circulating currents within the fluid, resulting in more efficient heat transfer from the source to the sink. The transition from heat conduction to convection in fluids has been studied in great detail by Henri Bénard [5], Koschmeider [8] and others. Figure 3.3 shows a photograph, produced by Koschmeider, of a 1.9 mm deep thin layer of silicone oil subjected to a temperature gradient. The circular dish containing the oil is 10.5 cm in diameter warmed from below. Above the oil a 0.4 mm layer of cooled air is trapped between the oil and a transparent sapphire lid. The set up is shown schematically in Fig. 3.4a, with heat travelling upwards through the oil from the warm source to the cold sink. Initially when the temperature gradient is low (Fig. 3.4b—T1), the heat is carried upwards purely by conduction (dotted blue line) through the working fluid, and this continues until the linear gradient reaches a critical threshold (Fig. 3.4b—T2) when convection (solid brown line) takes over (at the junction of the linearised plots in Fig. 3.4a). At this juncture, the Bénard cells shown in the photograph, begin to form. These hexagonally shaped cells are about 6.26 mm across, and spring from warm spots in the oil surface where surface tension is weakened. Localised convection currents result in warm oil rising through the centre of the cell raising the local surface level, thus producing the dimpled effect shown in the photograph. Oil cooled at the surface of

3.1 Gradient Degradation and Complex Structures

49

Fig. 3.3 Bénard cells

each cell sinks down around the outer periphery as suggested in the sketch in Fig. 3.3. This ‘organised’ complex flow system is much more effective in gradient reduction than simple conduction, and dissipates much more energy. In fact, the evidence of Fig. 3.4c is that the more cells are displaced from equilibrium by incrementing the temperature gradient, the more capable is the sophisticated cellular structure in resisting any such change. They are quite robust once formed. The general observation is that complex kinetic structures of this type, only ‘pop up’ for gradients of the correct steepness—it must be steep enough but not too steep. Once the cycles start, of whatever physical description, if they have access to plentiful energy sources in their immediate environment they can grow. Moreover, complex systems may regulate gradients by reducing them to a point where they have to restrict their operations until the gradient or energy source is restored, whereupon the cycle is repeated—almost like a living organism.

3.1.5 Chemically Induced Order Cycling, which, as we have seen, can be accompanied by growth in physical systems, is also apparent in chemical processes. Alfred Lotka (1880–1949), who is generally recognised as being the first to study self-perpetuation in cycling chemical systems, coined the term autocatalysis (from Greek meaning selfbuilding and splitting) to describe such processes. In chemistry a cycling reaction

50

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

Fig. 3.4 Heat flow across a temperature gradient for Bénard cells. a System schematic. b Transition behaviours. c Heat flow across a temperature gradient for Bénard cells

could result if the process yields a product which subsequently permits its own further production. Just to emphasis the point, cycling behaviour is evident, in an intriguing fashion, in what are now known as Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reactions [9]. An example is oxidation of ceric acid by potassium bromide, with the reaction being catalysed by cerium. The observed autocatalytic reactions can result in different possible outcomes since it can follow more than one chemical pathway. For example if the chemicals are held in a reaction vessel for a long time with constant stirring, the process generally progresses toward a near equilibrium steady state. On the other hand, if the residence time of the chemicals in the vessel are made much shorter, the mixture comes ‘colourfully alive’, alternating from a pale

3.1 Gradient Degradation and Complex Structures

51

yellow colour when Ce4þ (an ionic form of cerium) predominates, to clear when Ce3þ takes over. With the right temperature, pressure and chemical concentrations, providing sustaining energetic gradients, an oscillating BZ reaction can be procured which changes several times a minute over long periods of time. It should be emphasised that this ceric acid reaction is simply one of many possible examples of complex chemical cycling. Modern non-equilibrium thermodynamics, some of which has been sampled above, informs us that complex gradient reduction systems demonstrably occur rather frequently and widely in the natural non-biological world. Gradient sustained cycles are present in the wind patterns of hurricanes or tornados, which are themselves initiated by pressure and temperature gradients in the atmosphere. They are clearly present in whirlpools in flowing water systems. They can be seen in fluids subjected to temperature gradients, electrical devices submerged in electric or magnetic fields, and they can be found in non-living chemical reactions. The inescapable affirmation from the natural world is that [3] ‘nature abhors a gradient’, and complex dissipative structures are formed to degrade it. Generally, it appears that the more complex the structure the more efficient is the degrading process. The corollary to these observations is that there is now a strong case for believing that the evolution, in the primordial soup of the early energetic earth, of complex molecules with highly efficient gradient reducing characteristics, was distinctly possible. That such molecules were probably the precursors of living organisms, is no longer difficult to imagine. We shall explore this intriguing thought in the next section.

3.2 The ‘Stuff’ of Life At a conference on irreversible thermodynamics in 1972, Aharon Katchalsky (1914–1972), an exceptional research scientist, who received the Israel prize for life sciences in 1961, used a quotation from an early version of Darwin’s, ‘On the Origins of the Species’, namely: But if (and oh, what a big if!) we could conceive in some little warm pond, with all sorts of ammonia and phosphoric salts, light, heat, electricity etc., a protein substance was created, capable of experiencing furthermore complex transformations—that at present time such a substance would have to be consumed or absorbed; which could not happen in the period preceding the formation of living creatures [10].

in order to make the observation that Darwin may have been aware, even if only vaguely, that a non-biological evolutionary process must have preceded the start of biological evolution. However, in Darwin’s time the notion that life could originate from complex, yet inanimate, carbon based substances would have been much too radical a step for the then scientific community. The ‘creative’ input, alluded to in the quotation, would undoubtedly have been ascribed to some form of divine intervention.

52

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

In the previous chapter you may recall that we digressed briefly to examine a Morowitz calculation which enabled us to assert that the statistical likelihood, of protein molecules forming in a ‘primordial soup’ of suitable chemicals, is vanishingly small if the mix is presumed to be at equilibrium. A similar calculation for a bacterium has been performed by bio-energeticist Mae-Wan Ho with essentially the same outcome. He explains the result as follows [11]: The living cell has a very large amount of energy stored in covalent bonds as electronic bond energies—considerably more that the thermal energies which exist in the equilibrium state. So large, in fact, that the probability of getting there by chance fluctuation around the equilibrium state is essentially nil. So how come there are living organisms at all? The immediate answer is energy flow. Energy flow greatly increases the probability for life, and is absolutely essential for its maintenance and organisation.

In order for the main elements of life, carbon hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and sulphur, suitably impregnated in the ‘primordial soup’, to fuse into a living organism such as a bacterium, Ho is suggesting that in the presence of energy flow associated with non-equilibrium conditions, that the probability of ‘getting there’ is greatly increased. An eternal wait, which contradicts experience, since we are here wondering about it all, is no longer predicted.

3.2.1 The Pre-Biotic ‘Primordial Soup’ The life emanating from the ‘soup’ is likely to be in its simplest forms, namely bacteria, which largely comprise organised collections of organic polymers; for example proteins, nucleic acids, membrane lipids, carbohydrates and metabolites [2]. Amino acids, which are the building blocks of proteins, are relatively easy to form. Experiments, which have been devised to simulate conditions on the early earth, demonstrate that amino acids develop naturally. Furthermore evidence, which has been gleaned from material extracted from comets, suggests that this material is probably rather abundant in space. On the other hand ribonucleic acid (RNA) and deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) the molecules essential to cell replication, are not produced in origins of-life experiments. Perhaps this is not too surprising since it is quite difficult to see how such complex molecules providing the tools for precise replication could come into being fully formed. More primitive manifestations of replication would seem to be necessary precursors. Nevertheless, the biological community has persisted with the idea that ‘in the beginning there was RNA’—sometimes referred to as ‘RNA World’. The notion was given a considerable impetus when Thomas Cech [12] was able to show that RNA can self-catalyse, thus facilitating replication by ‘naked’ RNA molecules. The implication is that RNA may have been more self-sufficient in the primordial past than had previously been considered to be possible. Freeman Dyson [13, 14] has more recently been prompted to observe that:

3.2 The ‘Stuff’ of Life

53

Once the mystery of the genetic code was understood, it became natural to think of the nucleic acids as primary and of the proteins as secondary structures.

In making this statement he was clearly suggesting that this was only true of scientists of a biological persuasion, since the thesis revealed in his own writings, which he seems to prefer, revolves around the possibility that the ‘stuff of life’ erupted spontaneously in the cosmic environment and that creatures exhibiting feeble metabolism and imprecise replication must have appeared first, on the primordial earth. The ‘RNA World’ concept has been dismissed rather incisively by Wicken [15], who questions how RNA molecules in a world of competing nucleotides (constituents of nucleic acid) would burden themselves with protein making machinery. Schneider and Sagan [2] have chosen to put it as follows: The cut-throat virus-like race is to the quick, when it comes to naked genes under natural selection.

Of course if genes are in a symbiotic, cooperative arrangement with purposeful gradient reducers possessing metabolic and homeostatic tendencies, as we observe in today’s natural world, then primordial evolution is less difficult to envisage. This is because ATP, the primary energy storing molecule in all known life, is almost identical to adenosine monophosphate, which happens to be a nucleotide of RNA [2]. It is difficult not to conclude from all of this, that the energy dissipating function of life, must have taken precedence over its replicating function, at least in its very primitive stages. The debate is aptly summarised by Wicken in the following quotation (see Weber [16]). The italics are his. Many physicists and chemists have applied thermodynamics to making sense of prebiotic evolution. In the biological realm, the randomising forces of the second law underlie the Darwinian principle of variation, from point mutations to chromosome rearrangements to sexual recombination. For its part, the principle of natural selection is inextricably connected with the competition for an effective utilisation of energy resources.

So can we ‘shine a light’ on the transition from molecular forms displaying complexity, order and organisation, which now seem to be not improbable in the pre-biotic primordial soup of the early energetic earth, to the emergence of early life forms.

3.3 Emergence There is no shortcut from thermodynamics and cosmology to phylogeny [historical development of species]. Connecting life with prelife requires a process of emergence.

Wicken, arguably one of the leading contributors to non-equilibrium thermodynamics, makes this possibly rather terse comment [17] in an article in 1988, but given what we know now about non-equilibrium systems and complex gradient reducing processes it now seems rather prescient.

54

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

3.3.1 Autocatalysis In Sect. 3.1, we saw in the presence of energy gradients, quite ‘simple’ physical systems can generate and maintain complex self-organised forms. The scientific literature can provide many examples of self-organised, cycling or dynamic, chemical systems, for which the thermodynamics is now well established [9]. The evidence is that wherever a chemical gradient exists a dissipative autocatalytic reaction can be initiated and maintained. More importantly, reactions of this kind are to be found in protein synthesis reactions and other organic reactions. The nature of reactions of this class is ably summarised by Schneider and Kay [5]: Autocatalytic reaction systems are a form of positive feedback where the activity of the system or reaction augments itself in the form of self-reinforcing reactions. Consider a reaction where A catalyses the formation of B and B accelerates the formation of A; the overall set of reactions is an autocatalytic or positive feedback cycle.

Generally, what this means, is that if the input of any element in an autocatalytic chemical reaction, encourages other elements to be more active, then the process as a whole is continually stimulated. Repeated testing indicates that selfreinforcing catalytic behaviour of this kind is self-organising and the end result is a process which improves the gradient reduction or the dissipative capacity of a system. In fact, non-equilibrium systems require feedback to prevent their degeneration to equilibrium in accordance with the second law. They would not be sustainable without their cycling and autocatalytic capabilities. Non-equilibrium dissipative systems of this category fully accord with the dictates of the laws of thermodynamics including the second law in its modified form [12]. This being so it is logical to conclude that dissipative structures will appear wherever gradients are to be found. Arguably, the emergence and evolution of species can be rationalised as a ‘‘solution to the thermodynamic problem of degrading the gradients induced on the earth by the daily influx of solar energy’’ [5]. The most significant gradient influencing the earth is due to the Sun. At the Sun’s surface the temperature is about 5800K while outer space, according to Stephen Hawking, is at 2.7K. As a result, high energy photons, in accordance with the Stefan-Boltzmann law, radiate out into space and thence continuously impinge on the earth’s atmosphere at the level of 1367 W/m2. About one-eighth of this power density reaches the surface. This flow of photons constantly replenishes, or recharges, the energy demands of any non-equilibrium systems, which may reside on the surface. On the early earth it is possible that gradients associated with geothermal sources may have played an equally important role.

3.3.2 Solar Gradient and Life A rational and convincing argument for emergence, based on thermodynamics, postulating the possible conditions whereby life might be connected with prelife,

3.3 Emergence

55

has been provided by Wicken [17]. It is summarised here. We have already noted at the end of Sect. 2.3 that the incremental entropy for an open, dissipative system can be expressed as: dS ¼ dSi þ dSe

ð3:1Þ

where dSi is the entropy change of the system itself (usually negative in the case of an organism) and dSe is the entropy change which the system or process exchanges with the environment. Now any energy flow from a source at temperature T1 to a sink at T2 is governed by the second law. That is: Q2 Q1 [0 T2 T1

ð3:2Þ

where Q1 is the supplied thermal energy or heat, while Q2 is expelled low quality heat. In relation to open systems embedded in an environment, the above implies that for its surroundings in isolation (notionally barren), heat Q1e from a source at T1 enters the environment from outside (making Q1e negative) and Q2e leaks out to a sink (Q2e positive) at T2. Therefore dSe ¼

Q1e Q2e T1 T2

ð3:3Þ

As a consequence of Eq. 3.2, the incremental entropy dSe is negative suggesting that the barren surroundings become hotter and hotter in the solar gradient. Hence, with some mathematical slight of hand involving an integration over time, Eqs. 3.1 and 3.3 can be combined to yield: Q1e Q2e DS ¼ DSi þ ð3:4Þ T1 T2 This equation represents the thermodynamic condition for evolutionary selforganisation, and in planetary terms the development of an ecosystem. On the early earth with its presumed oceans of ‘primordial soup’, the difference between Q1e and Q2e represents the ‘charging’ of the pre-biosphere, provided that mechanisms for storing this energy exist. Such mechanisms could range from electron excitation by energetic photons resulting in potential energy storage within chemicals in the soup, to heat absorbing endothermic reactions associated with geothermal temperature gradients. While the above thermodynamic equations outline the conditions for desirable negentropic processes to occur in the primordial soup, they give no guidance as to how the structural complexity, which is essential to promote the appearance of sophisticated biological molecules, could form. For the biosphere as a whole, whether nascent or mature, we essentially have a closed thermodynamic system, and the second law requires that DS [ 0. From Eq. 3.1 this implies that: dSi þ dSe [ 0

ð3:5Þ

56

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

But for a non-equilibrium system which is being sustained by the ‘charging’ energy DE we can form the following equation dSi = dSc+dSth and hence we must have: dSc þ dSth þ dSe [ 0

ð3:6Þ

where dSc is the entropy change in the non-equilibrium system associated with ‘charging’, while dSth represents the thermal influences on the entropy level. As Wicken [17] has observed, Eq. 3.6 links the evolutionary arrow of time to the thermodynamic arrow, the latter being ruled by the second law of thermodynamics.

3.3.3 Embryonic Life The generation of prebiotic molecular complexity in the proverbial ‘soup’ is presumed to have been a prerequisite of the emergence or formation of structured biopolymers. The thermodynamic logic favours the proposition that the source of the energy required to drive molecular structuring, is the chemical potential energy, resulting from photon bombardment, stored in more primitive monomer molecules within the ‘soup’. dSth would become negative in the process as the thermal energy in excited electrons is employed in the formation of structure. Equation 3.6 then requires that dSc should increase in response to the negativity of dSth, and the resultant entropy rise implies that more ‘charging’ energy is expended in growing and maintaining non-equilibrium complexity. Wicken suggests that this entropy production, of a configurational nature, is instrumental to the occurrence of Darwinian variation. He summarises the process as follows: Pulses of geothermal energy in the prebiotic soup generate thermal proteinoids, dissolution of a single gram of which gives birth to 10 billion microspheres. Since these microspheres have considerable catalytic power, including activities toward both amino acid and nucleotide polymerisation, they would seem reasonable settings for the emergence of functional relationships.

The microspheres, which he refers to here, are defined as ‘supramolecular’ structures presumably not unlike organic molecules. Emergence theory is generally in accordance with rules of science as we know them. Statistically the formation of prelife molecules is no longer highly improbable, as we discovered was the case for life emerging from an equilibrium prebiotic soup. The process of emergence will never be fully known since direct evidence is impossible to collect, but science can construct a rational framework based on scientific principles which narrows down the options. From the perspective of biological evolution it is generally accepted that anabolism or self-replication endows a selective advantage on complex forms which possess this capability. Therefore the emergence of life is qualitatively not unlike the emergence of species. What is required is that:

3.3 Emergence

57

an individual of a species will survive long enough to insure the survival of replacement offspring [and] the species as a whole will maximise its contribution to the degradation of energy by producing as many offspring as possible, who will survive to reproduce [5].

Thermodynamicists would aver that stochastic sampling in the primordial soup of the early energetic earth, where complex gradient degrading molecular forms are evolving, would preferentially select any persistent forms with a replicative tendency. Once the process starts complex life is inevitable as we now know, since we are here on a planet teeming with living organisms. The scientific literature on evolution and the origins of life is very extensive, given that the topic embraces chemistry, bio-chemistry, biology, genetics, biophysics, physics, thermodynamics and all disciplines in between. Inevitably ‘turf’ wars between competing disciplines, and between protagonists, have manifested themselves, as disagreements in the interpretation of new findings as they percolate into the scientific community. The arguments have sometimes been not a little acerbic, and heated, a not uncommon feature of scientific enquiry. Consequently, for the outsider trying to look in, it can be difficult to assess the overall ‘state of play’ in the origins debate. Suffice to say that the ‘origin of life’ is certainly deemed to be a legitimate problem for science to investigate, and the growing evidence, which we have touched upon in this chapter, has accumulated to the level where it is only a matter of time before all disciplines are united on an agreed biological and thermodynamic hypothesis for the beginnings of life—beginnings which require no assistance from the divine. The developing narrative for the transition from pre-biotic complexity to replicating molecules representing the origins of life on earth generally follows, as we have suggested above, the formula propagated by Wicken, requiring both thermodynamic imperatives and Darwinian evolution. It is still not fully established whether anabolism was the precursor to RNA or vice versa, but what is certain is that non-equilibrium thermodynamics has considerably advanced the journey towards a solution to the ‘origins’ conundrum. A casualty of this effort is clearly ‘intelligent design’, arguably the last bastion of those individuals of a religious persuasion who take a ‘creationist’ view of the natural world. Intelligent design (ID) is founded in the idea that DNA molecules, fully coded by the ‘Creator’, were seeded in the primordial swamp to promote life’s genesis, and the subsequent evolutionary process. However, the mounting evidence is that the degree of molecular complexity, which was required for life to commence, can certainly have formed naturally on the early earth, provided strong energy flows existed. On an earth powered by the sun this was undoubtedly the case. Cycling systems, leading to structural complexity, whether at the macroscopic or microscopic level, have been shown to be commonplace in the energetic universe and consequently pre-RNA or pre-DNA replicating molecules driven by energy gradients and the laws of thermodynamics are confidently predicted to be the pre-cursors of life by many biologists, eco-biologists, ecologists and biothermodynamicists.

58

3 Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics

References 1. Morowitz H (1979) Energy flow in biology: biological organisation as a problem in thermal physics. Ox Bow Press, Woodbridge 2. Schneider ED, Sagan D (2005) Into the cool. Chicago University Press, Chicago 3. Feynman R et al (1972) Lectures in physics II. Addison-Wesley Publishing Co, Massachusetts 4. Angier N (2007) The cannon. Houghton Mifflin, Boston 5. Schneider ED, Kay J (1994) Life as a manifestation of the second law of thermodynamics. Math Comput Model 19(6–8):25–48 6. Mikulecky D (1993) Applications of network thermodynamics to problems in biomedical engineering. New York University Press, New York 7. Hatsopoulos G, Keenan J (1965) Principles of general thermodynamics. John Wiley & Sons Inc, New York 8. Koschmeider L (1993) Benard cells and taylor vortices. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 9. Nicolis G, Prigogine I (1989) Exploring complexity. W. H. Freeman and Sons, San Francisco 10. Oster GF, Silver IL, Tobias CA (1974) Irreversible thermodynamics and the origins of life. Gordon & Breach, Science Publishers, New York 11. Ho M-W (1998) The rainbow and the worm. The physics of organism World Scientific, Singapore 12. Cech TR (1993) The efficiency and versatility of catalytic RNA: implications for an RNA world. Gene 135:33–36 13. Dyson F (1994) The universe as a home for life. Hibiya Hall, Tokyo 14. Dyson F (1999) Origins of life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 15. Wicken J (1987) Evolution, thermodynamics and information: extending the Darwinian program. Oxford University Press, New York 16. Weber BH et al (1988) Entropy, information, and evolution. a Bradford book. MIT Press, Cambridge 17. Wicken JS (1988) Thermodynamics, evolution and emergence. chapter 7 entropy information evolution. In: Weber BH (ed) A Bradford book. MIT Press, Cambridge

Chapter 4

Thermodynamics and Climate The urge to form partnerships, to link up in collaborative arrangements is perhaps the oldest, strongest and most fundamental force in Nature. There are no solitary free-living creatures; every form of life is dependent on other forms Lewis Thomas In the 1960s we were wholly unaware that we inhabit a live planet whose needs are in conflict with our own James Lovelock

4.1 Climate Science 4.1.1 Greenhouse Effect In the early eighteenth century, more than a century before the laws of thermodynamics were established, a brilliant French mathematician, Jean Baptiste Fourier (1768–1830), was motivated to ponder why the average temperature of the earth was not much higher than observed. He was puzzled as to why the planet didn’t just continue to heat up under the constant and bountiful radiation from the sun. By applying elementary optical transmission and reflection rules he would soon have realised that this could partly be explained by the sun’s rays being reflected or scattered back into space from the upper atmosphere, and that those which penetrated the atmosphere would be re-radiated from the surface of the earth. Surprisingly, his calculations seemed to predict that so much of the sun’s incident radiation was being reflected back into space, that the earth, instead of being over heated, should be an ice covered orb at about 15C. Being a good scientist, as well as a mathematician, he reasoned that a proportion of the solar power reaching the surface of the earth could not be returning to space—that somehow it must be trapped by the atmosphere. He did not know what the trapping mechanism was, but he correctly suggested that the atmosphere was behaving like the panes of glass of a greenhouse, letting the sunlight in with negligible attenuation, but then confining the heat generated within the glass enclosure [1].

4.1.2 Problems with Burning Coal Unfortunately, given what we know now about global warming, Fourier’s observation attracted little attention for about seventy long years. Not until the mid nineteenth century did the issue reappear through the research efforts of

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_4, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

59

60

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

John Tyndall (1820–1893) who attempted to explain the heat in the earth’s atmosphere in terms of the capacities of the various gases in the air to absorb radiant heat, in particular, infrared radiation. It is interesting to note that his measuring equipment represented a significant early step in the evolution of techniques, including spectroscopy, for measuring the absorption of gases. He was the first to correctly measure the infrared absorptive powers of the atmospheric gases such as nitrogen, oxygen, water vapour, CO2, ozone, and methane. His conclusion was that water vapour is the strongest absorber of radiant heat in the atmosphere and is consequently the principal gas controlling air temperature. In relative terms, the absorption by the bulk of the other gases seemed to be negligible. Prior to Tyndall many scientists had surmised that the earth’s atmosphere had a beneficial greenhouse effect, but he was first to establish it. By the late nineteenth century, the chemist Svante Arrhenius (1859–1927), in concert with many other scientists, was intrigued by the ice ages and what caused them. His painstaking calculations revealed that just a small reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere was enough to bring on an ice age. Furthermore he speculated that coal burning, at the rates perpetrated in the nineteenth century, could double the CO2 in the atmosphere in 3000 years bringing a much less harsh climate to Sweden. He apparently regretted that it would take so long. Perhaps, in so doing, he planted the seed that seems to prevail today, that global warming is a benign phenomenon. Despite his (as we now realise) immensely important observation as to the role of CO2 in earth’s climate, climatologist remained uninterested. Another opportunity had been missed. The issue was revisited in 1931 by Edward O. Hulbert a senior physicist at the Naval Research Laboratory [2]. He developed a ‘‘radiative-convective’’ model of the atmosphere using pioneering data, on the absorption bands of CO2 and water, which were far superior to what was known in Arrhenius’s time. By incorporating a crude model of heat transfer by convection from the lower to the upper atmosphere he got a figure for surface temperature that agreed with Arrhenius’s rough estimate that doubling or halving the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would raise or lower earth’s surface temperature several degrees. Later in 1938 a steam engineer, with a keen curiosity about the workings of the planetary engine, suggested to the Royal Meteorological Society in London, that the earth was warming [1]. And not just that it was warming. He also suggested that the cause was the burning of coal. However, Guy Callendar (1898–1964) was not a scientist and his paper was ignored as the mere speculation of an amateur, and was consigned to the archives. At that time, as it happened, the records indicate that the climate seemed to be cooling rather than warming, which rather precipitated the unwarranted and unfortunate dismissal of his contribution. Solid methods for dealing with radiative transfer through a gas were not really worked out until the 1940s. The great astrophysicist Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar and others, originally and primarily concerned with the way energy moved through the interiors and atmospheres of stars, began to apply their advanced physics to earth’s biosphere [3].

4.1 Climate Science

61

4.1.3 Solar Influences on Climate It is interesting to note, that another engineer, this time a civil engineer and mathematician, was also making inroads into the ice age mystery. By cogitating on planetary movements, particularly those of the earth relative to the sun, Milutin Milankovich (1879–1958) [4] identified three key cycles, which have an influence on earth’s climate. These were: (a) the time taken for the earth’s orbit to cycle from elliptical to circular and back (about 100,000 years); it is currently quite circular, so there is little difference between the solar energy at the Tropic of Cancer in July and the Tropic of Capricorn in January; when the orbit is at its most eccentric however, the difference can be as much as 30%: (b) the time taken for the tilt of the planetary axis, relative to the axis of its orbit, to complete a cycle from 21.8 to 24.4 tilt—about 42,000 years: (c) the time taken to complete an axis wobble which takes the direction of the axis from alignment with the Pole Star to alignment with Vega, estimated to be 22,000 years. These cycles are now known as the Milankovich cycles. Time-phase coherence of the ice ages and the Milankovich cycles is now well established, although the fact that the planetary temperature can change by as much a 5C, for a change in the solar power striking the planet of less than 0.1%, was not fully understood. Observed cycles of warm and cold periods between glacial epochs were also a puzzle. Greenhouse gases were suspected to play a major role in the process [5]. However, the riddle of the ice ages appeared to have been largely solved, but because Milankovich published his paper in Serbian, it was several decades later before his brilliance was recognised. By the time it was published in English in 1969, just over 100 years since the discovery of the key laws governing the evolution of climate, a catalogue of measurement and other evidence supporting his claims had already been collated and tabulated by scientists.

4.1.4 Infrared Absorption Real understanding of the relationship between the climate record, greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere and solar radiation cycles, was beginning to emerge by the 1950s, the workings of Fourier’s ‘greenhouse’ having been resolved as a result of Planck’s studies into thermal radiation and hence to the quantum theory of light [6].1 In 1894 Max Planck (1858–1947) began to investigate the

1

This book by Rapp represents an excellent review of the physical principles, which underpin the global warming debate, covering as it does proxies, measurement methods, modelling, climate history, solar effects, greenhouse effect and future impacts. The pejorative use of the term ‘alarmist’ to describe the IPCC and reputable scientists tends to grate somewhat, as does the mild term ‘naysayers’ when ‘deniers’ is usually implied. Apart from this idiosyncrasy, it is a very useful source of global warming science.

62

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

problem of black-body radiation. The problem had been stated by Gustav Kirchhoff (1824–1887) in 1859: how does the intensity of the electromagnetic radiation emitted by a black body depend on the frequency of the re-radiated electromagnetic waves and the temperature of the body? A black body is an object which does not reflect light. It totally absorbs it, thereby heating up in the process as required by the first law of thermodynamics. The question had been explored experimentally, but all attempts to explain the measured data failed to find a formula that was generally applicable. After several ‘false dawns’, in November 1900, by relying on Maxwell’s and Boltzmann’s statistical interpretation of the second law of thermodynamics Planck was able to gain a much more fundamental understanding of the principles behind his radiation law [7–9]. The curious aspect of this key development was that Planck, schooled in the deterministic science of Isaac Newton, was uncomfortable with the philosophical and physical implications of resorting to statistics, and was prompted to observe that in: ‘‘an act of despair… I was ready to sacrifice any of my previous convictions about physics.’’ The central assumption behind his new derivation, published in 1900, was the supposition, really first grasped and enunciated by Albert Einstein [8, 9] (1879–1955), that electromagnetic energy could be emitted only in quantized form, in other words, the energy (E in Joules) could only be a multiple of an elementary unit E = hf, where h is Planck’s constant, also known as Planck’s action quantum (introduced already in 1899), and f is the frequency of the radiation in Hertz. The radiation from a black body is produced by the vibrating electric charges in the randomly agitated molecules. The hotter the body, the greater is the agitation. According to Planck the re-radiated photons (as A.H. Compton (1892–1962) was later to call them) have much lower energy than the absorbed light, and must therefore have a lower frequency. In environmental terms the black body of interest is earth, where the re-radiated low energy, infra-red photons are at a frequency which can be absorbed by CO2 molecules. Climatologists such as Hansen and Lebedeff [10] talk about a process of ‘radiative forcing’ when quantifying the influence of atmospheric carbon on global warming. The earth is naturally warmed by radiation from the sun. If you were to try to gather this solar heat over a square metre of the earth’s surface in daytime (obviously you would collect much more at the equator than at the poles) you would garner on average about enough heat to boil a three litre kettle of water. The sun produces, as we have seen, high energy radiation, which impinges on the earth’s atmosphere in the form of electromagnetic waves at light and higher frequencies. Some of these are scattered back out to space while the rest penetrate to the surface of the planet, with little absorption by the CO2. On the other hand low energy radiation from the ‘hot’ earth is, as observed above, at a much lower frequency and can be absorbed by CO2 in the atmosphere. Man-made CO2 is now producing ‘forcing’ (greenhouse warming) equivalent to 0.7% of the natural level; about enough solar power over a square metre of the earth’s surface to boil a table-spoon full of water. What this means is that a small fraction of radiation from the planet, which would normally propagate back out into space, is not permitted to do so by the enhanced CO2 ‘blanket’, and adds 0.7% to atmospheric and surface warming.

4.1 Climate Science

63

Fig. 4.1 Absorption of electromagnetic waves by a range of gases in the atmosphere. Most of the ultraviolet light (above 1 THz) is absorbed by ozone (O3) and oxygen (O2). CO2 has three large absorption bands in the infrared region at about 0.01, 0.07, and 0.2 THz. Water has several absorption bands in the infrared, and even has some absorption well into the microwave region. There is already sufficient CO2 in the atmosphere to absorb almost all of the radiation from the sun or from the surface of the earth in the principal CO2 absorption bands (Data derived from Howard et al. [11] and Goody [12])

Absorption of the sun’s electromagnetic radiation by the main atmospheric gases is summarised in Fig. 4.1.

4.1.5 Biosphere By the 1950s it was evident that thermodynamics, when properly applied, was capable, as a result of inspired experiments from geology and climatology, of explaining many, if not most, of the climatic changes that had occurred during earth’s recorded history, which goes back many millions of years. But there is a paradox hidden in the records. Since life first appeared on earth the intensity of our Sun has increased by thirty per cent, a natural evolution in a young star. Yet the temperature on earth has remained relatively stable and conducive to life. So why, given that the earth has remained on a relatively stable orbit around the sun during all of this period, and once we account for the Milankovich cycles, has its surface temperature remained relatively constant as the sun has increased

64

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

in intensity? An answer to this question was proffered by Lovelock [13, 14] in the 1960s, and is elaborated upon in several of his recently published books on the subject. His Gaia hypothesis, which again was largely resisted by the scientific establishment, viewed: ‘‘the biosphere as an active, adaptive control system able to maintain the earth in homeostasis’’. The green and lush carpet of forest on a healthy earth adjusts responsively in density, diversity and extent to the photon bombardment thereby countering the intensifying Sun through the cooling produced by evaporation and cloud coverage imparted by the forest canopy. What this means is that the stability of our climate is in a delicate balance—like a rowing boat at sea it is conditionally stable—if pushed too far by a large wave it may flip into a new state which is inimical to the rowers! By destroying forests and burning fossil fuels man is upsetting the eco-balance here on earth. In essence we are adding, to the radiation supplied by today’s Sun, the energy stored in trapped sunlight which was collected by plants and animals growing on the planet for thousands of years, many millions of years ago. Furthermore this is happening on a planet with a ‘broken thermostat’, as we will see in Chap. 5.

4.1.6 Exploiting ‘Ancient Sunlight’ Mankind’s ‘ecologically illicit or unnatural’ access to ancient sunlight, in the form of fossil fuels, represents a huge advantage, almost a gift, for our species. No other species has access to such bounty from the past. Its discovery has certainly affirmed the dominant status of humans on planet earth, and has accelerated our ability to exploit the planet’s natural capital at a rate which was previously unimaginable. But unfortunately this capital cannot continue to be exploited so thoughtlessly, as we are doing, without incurring very severe environmental consequences, as we are now beginning to discover. When one considers the magnitudes involved, humanity’s current demand, for ancient sunlight (i.e. fossil fuels), is nothing short of incredible. Jeffrey Dukes of the University of Utah has provided a decent estimate [15]. Employing the knowledge that all the carbon and hydrogen in fossil fuels is derived from ancient plants using the power of sunlight, and given the low efficiency by which plant matter is converted to fossil fuel and the low efficiency of the extraction process, he calculates that 100 tonnes of prehistoric plant life is required to produce just 4 litres of petrol. It takes an awful lot of sunshine to generate 100 tonnes of plant matter. Needless to say therefore, given the alarming rate at which industrialised humans are burning fossil fuels, it has required several centuries of ancient sunlight to keep our economies going. Flannery [7] expresses the situation in the following stark and revealing fashion: The figure for 1997—around 422 years of fossil sunlight—was typical. Four hundred and twenty-two years of blazing light from a Carboniferous Sun—and we have burnt it in a single year.

4.1 Climate Science

65

There is, of course, no way of knowing whether or not science could have communicated earlier the seriousness of the global warming threat, posed by mankind’s prolifically wasteful combusting of fossil fuels. Clearly there were long periods when unfortunately little progress was made, but this is not unusual in any branch of science. Scientific progress is almost always spasmodic, intermittent and qualified. The result is that there is always plenty of ‘room’ for the alternative quasi-scientific hypotheses to take root, confusing the public, including politicians, because of growing scientific illiteracy. Since the latter have the responsibility to address the issue, progress towards a solution is snail like and hesitant. An example of the obfuscation that now permeates climate science is the persistent minority of scientists [16] who would like us to believe that global warming can be attributed to solar activity because, as they like to suggest, the correlation between global temperatures and solar events is much stronger than that between temperature trends and greenhouse gas concentrations. To make matters worse, climate change denial [17] has also become a well funded major ‘industry’ of the past twenty or so years, using all sorts of spurious disinformation to undermine climate science, by preying on the lack of certainty expressed by genuine scientists. We shall address these issues in more detail in the next section. Finally, given that it is now at least forty years since the risks to the ecological health of the planet from industrialisation and fossil fuel burning have become clear, it also seems pertinent to ask, why mankind has continued to consider economic ‘growth’ to be a civilising imperative, and why our species has forged ahead with increasingly energy intensive lifestyles, with no thought for the future? We will return to this question later.

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming The global population in 2009 has now climbed to 6.7 billion and is predicted to reach 9 billion by 2050. This is far beyond sustainability, when all, in our now highly interconnected world, are conspicuously striving to become ‘first world’ consumers. When faced with this huge number, Professor James Lovelock, author of ‘‘The Revenge of Gaia’’, is reported to have made the following rather trenchant observation [18]: Merely by existing, people and their dependent animals are responsible for more than ten times the greenhouse gas emissions of all the airline travel in the world.

As was shown in Chap. 1 the unprecedentedly large expansion of the global population, which we are currently experiencing, has really all happened since about the time of the industrial revolution. If one plots the phenomenon over a 2000 year timescale, the numbers are observed to have been relatively stable throughout this period then in the last 200 years they ‘take off’. The shape of the curve is not unlike a hockey stick, with its shaft horizontal and its blade pointing upwards. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere when plotted as a function

66

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

of time displays a similar shape, as Fig. 1.1 demonstrates, and it is not unreasonable to aver, and most rational people now do so, that the CO2 trend must be related to human numbers and human activities. But whether or not global warming also correlates with population and CO2 trends is for some an open question, which we will contemplate below.

4.2.1 Interpretation of Temperature Records The term ‘hockey stick curve’ is more commonly applied to graphs of global temperature depicted over several millennia, but in this case it seems to have been much less easy to attribute its shape to population growth and greenhouse gases. The difficulty resides partly in some unavoidable inaccuracies which are intrinsic to some of the methods used to reconstruct these graphs over periods of time which extend over centuries. Largely reconstruction is done by using proxy data (e.g. tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites) reaching back into the distant past, for which direct temperature measurements are obviously not available. For data of this kind to be meaningfully compared with the modern instrumentally procured temperature record, scientists have to mathematically adjust it, manipulate it, and calibrate it, using well founded statistical processing and standardisation techniques. But despite the great care which has been taken, even the way in which the processed results have been presented, has been open to dispute and debate in some sections of the quasi-scientific community. A typical set, of reconstructed temperature graphs generated both from proxy data and from direct instrumental measurements on the surface of the planet and in space, is presented in Fig. 4.2. It clearly shows the natural fluctuations of temperature over time (relative to the mean temperature between 1960 and 1990 which is set to zero) but also the extent of the discrepancies between different sets of proxy based reconstructions. Despite this, all of the curves in Fig. 4.2 indicate that for 800 years from the beginning of the last millennia (AD 1000), the general trend has been slightly but quite perceptibly downwards. This trend if extrapolated forward in time would point to an ice age in about 10,000 years. But this is not going to happen, because of the anomalous upwards spike from 1850, which is roughly coincident with the onset of the industrial revolution. All of the graphs display the hockey stick feature, but the validity of the rising trend since 1850, even in those plots which include more recent directly measured results, is still open to question. So why is this? Temperature records from tree-ring and ice-core proxies, and even from direct instrumental readings, are much more ‘spiky’ or much more ‘noisy’ than Fig. 4.2 suggests. In fact, over limited time periods they can be so ‘noisy’ (see Fig. 4.3) that underlying trends are obscured: for example between 1850 and 1880. This noisiness is attributable both to the vastness of the record and to its diversity and range. So a method of reconstruction of the record is required which retains all of the information in the original raw data, yet permits significant features ‘buried’

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming

67

Fig. 4.2 Reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the last 1,000 years according to various older articles (light lines in shades of blue and green), newer articles (dark lines in shades of red orange and brown lines), and instrumental record commencing in about 1850 (heavy black line) (see Wikipaedia)

Fig. 4.3 Relative temperature records over the period 1400–2000

within the raw material to be highlighted. Principal component analysis (PCA) is the favoured technique, although it is not the only one. The measured record is essentially a highly oscillatory curve of relative temperature versus time, and as such it can in principle by replicated by a Monte Carlo based, mathematical curvefitting procedure. For example, with data points distributed in less complex patterns the curve-fit can be procured by generating a polynomial, to which more and more terms are added until a match between the original points and the reconstruction is acquired, to within a prescribed margin of error. A set of points

68

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

on a linear path can be replicated with a two term polynomial, while points located on an arcing curve requires at least three. In PCA the processing is done automatically on a computer by software based on well established mathematical routines. In Fig. 4.3 the yellow curve (light grey in grayscale) is a plot of all of the raw temperature data points for tree-ring-widths from a diverse range of trees from widespread locations on the planet, while the green curve has some of the record missing (records removed for trees growing in a specific area of North America). The curves hardly differ at all since the overall data sets on which the curves are reconstructed are too large to be influenced by a partial removal of some records. The blue curve (or dark grey) is a PCA reconstruction extracted from MacKenzie [17], and it shows good correspondence with the raw data. But the real benefit of creating a reconstruction of a raw data set is that trends can immediately be discerned by simply curtailing the number of PC’s in the mathematical representation. ‘Smoothed’ curves such as those in Fig. 4.2 can then be generated by using a requisite number of principal components to retain major features of interest. Hopefully it is clear from the above resume of PCA that because it is statistically based and involves iterative searching for a fit between a measured data set and a representative curve [19], deviations between the original source data and the mathematical reconstruction are unavoidable. It is this very feature which has been latched on to by doubters to undermine the science of global warming. Important results presented in a paper by Mann et al. [20], which have significance to the science of global warming, have recently been questioned [6, 16] because of the particular PC convention used in their research. The suggestion is that by normalising the data, so that the zero mean is computed over just the twentieth century, the period of particular interest, the researchers were biasing their reconstruction. It was claimed that the ‘hockey stick’ shape was merely an artifact of this convention. However, this claim has since been quashed by re-running the reconstruction for a mean level calculated for the whole data set not just part of it. The ‘hockey stick’ does not disappear because it is built into the raw data!

4.2.2 Efficacy of Future Projections It is evident from Fig. 4.3, that the raw temperature data is ‘noisy’, in fact so noisy, that it is difficult to see how extrapolations into the future can be presented with any real confidence. This is an awkward aspect of the dangers of trying to bring the science to the public, and it is eagerly seized upon by deniers. The IPCC tries to get around the problem, to some extent, by providing a wide range of scenarios, as shown in Fig. 4.4. It shows projections of warming for four distinct scenarios. These are A2 which represents the results of computer models depicting high emissions—representing business-as-usual for the global economy—with the plotted result being the aggregate of 17 computer runs (indicated as a red number below the plot). The A1B curve (green) represents moderate emissions growth—

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming

69

Fig. 4.4 IPCC projections of global surface temperature rise over the next 300 years (from IVth IPCC report)

the nations of the world become enthusiastic about energy efficiency—and emissions stop growing after 2100 (21 models were run for 2000–2100 reducing to 17 between 2100 and 2200, reducing to 12 thereafter). The shaded region on either side of the bold line is the 1standard deviation range. The blue curve B1 follows a low emissions scenario until 2100—the world commits to rapid conversion to renewables. After 2100 emissions are again presumed to cease. The orange curve with the legend ‘constant composition commitment’ provides the results of 16 computer runs for a world which manages to hold greenhouse gas concentrations at year 2000 levels—obviously a now fictional scenario. At the present time, in 2010, we appear to be following the A2 or A1B scenarios. It should be emphasised that the extrapolations do not include positive feedbacks, since the sources of such feedback are too unpredictable to model—except for albedo, perhaps. The IPCC tactic of providing future projections, in order to engage the general public and politicians, is laudable, but it is risky, particularly in relation to the just as important task of ensuring that the science is seen by the outside world to be utterly rigorous, and that methods and motivations are beyond reproach.

4.2.3 Tree-Ring Proxy A recent paper by Salzer et al. [19] at the Laboratory of Treeline Research in Arizona, displays an ingenious way of circumventing the statistical ‘mine field’ by performing tree-ring measurements on bristlecone pines growing at high altitude in the mountains of California. These trees are well known to provide individuals of

70

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

great age, and have been used to assist in the calibration of the radiocarbon timescale. Growth rings are well defined in very old trees and ring-width chronologies (time records) are annually resolved and can reach back in time for thousands of years. The novelty of this particular bristlecone pine study lies in the examination of trees at the treeline on the mountains, a natural demarcation above which trees fail to grow. Results are compared with ring-width data obtained from similar trees at lower levels below treeline. It is well known that the treeline, while related to altitude, does not occur at the same height around the world. Also there is evidence of a temperature as well as a precipitation component to the location of the treeline [21, 22]. According to Koerner et al., natural climatic driven treeline positions follow a mean growing season temperature of around 6C, in seasonal as well as non-seasonal climates. The influence of temperature variability on growth at the treeline has been explored by experimentally exposing two-year-old seedlings of two montane conifer species to constant temperatures of 6C or 12C in one set of measurements, and to more realistic seasonally and diurnally changing temperatures oscillating around the same means of 6C and 12C in another set (covering a 13C amplitude variation across the season). For both species, the experiments strongly demonstrate that in the case of exposure to 6C during a growing season of 20 weeks, the seedlings can suffer dramatically reduced growth in constant, as well as variable, temperature treatments. Nevertheless, new biomass production is still measurable at 6C, indicating that a complete cessation of growth does not occur until an even lower mean temperature is reached. The biomass increment, by the end of the season, was found to be hardly influenced by the presence or absence of temperature cycling, for both species of evergreen. However, end of season, sugar and starch concentrations in different tissues revealed higher concentrations in those seedlings exposed to the colder mean temperature, and this was indicated at both constant and varying temperatures. In line with previous field data, low temperatures did not lead to carbon depletion (carbon limitation). The overall conclusion of the research is that cool temperatures have a stronger impact on cell division (meristematic) processes, usually referred to as sink activity, than on photosynthesis, a source activity in biological terms. These experimental observations on young trees are reportedly matched in field observations. In thermodynamic terms, the low or zero growth phenomena in trees at treeline can possibly best be explained by recalling the ‘cellular factory’ introduced in Chap. 3. When living things are functioning they accrete biomass. The ‘factory’ requires ‘construction materials’ produced by photosynthesis, transported by ATP, to the ‘machine tools’ provided by mitochondria. Until recently, it was believed that the retardation in plant growth associated with low temperature was related to a shortage of ‘construction materials’ (i.e. sugar produced by photosynthesis). However, much evidence now exists [23] that it is the formative processes (the machine tools), which control growth in low temperature conditions. While no plant has ever been shown to grow at 0C, and most stop at 5C, photosynthesis operates at 30% efficiency at 0C, and at 50% efficiency at 5C. The glucose is converted to starch within the plant when the ‘machine tools’ cease to operate. It is

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming

71

Fig. 4.5 Median ring widths (non-overlapping 50 year means) of upper forest border Pinus longaeva from three sites in western North America, plotted on first year of interval [19]

interesting that the low temperature growth limit should be delineated by trees rather than other plants. This is because of architecture. While small plants can decouple from the atmosphere by creating their own warmer micro-climate, trees cannot. The metabolic responses to temperature alluded to above are non-linear, and this implies an overall ‘quasi-linear’ response of growth to temperature in trees surviving at their lower temperature limit. The sink-limitation hypothesis of plant growth in treeline conditions is at the essence of the paper [19] referred to above. It uses it to isolate temperature influences on tree-ring growth from other possible causes such as increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and perhaps nitrogen enrichment of the soil although this is more likely at altitudes well below treeline. The measurement record, for bristlecone pines at three sites in North America, is presented in Fig. 4.5 over a 4000 year time window. Note that what is presented is not temperature, but raw ring-width data, which have not been subjected to statistical processing to remove tree age or tree size influences on ring growth. Each point on the graph represents a mean value of ring-widths for a 50 year period plotted at the beginning of the relevant period. It is clear from the graph that since 1800 the measured ring-widths have climbed inexorably to a peak of 0.58 mm (representing 8,910 width measurements) in the period 1951–2000. This is higher that anything than has gone before, within this 4000 year record. Even during the notoriously warm period enjoyed by the Pharaohs, running from 1900–900 BC, there is only one interval which shows ring-widths rivalling those currently being recorded. For the period 1500–2000, ring-width chronologies for bristlecone pines at those locations closest to the treeline show strong positive correlation with temperature records [19], whereas trees at sites below treeline this association is much less evident. In fact for trees below treeline the research suggests that ring-width growth is more positively linked to precipitation than to temperature, because once the ‘machine tools’ are operable it is photosynthesis, which depends on water, that controls biomass production and growth. The authors of this research conclude that

72

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

at the upper forest border bristlecone pine ring-widths are especially sensitive to temperature, and hence that: The unprecedented wide rings of the second half of the twentieth century, unique in the record extending for more than 3,500 years, suggest relatively recent environmental change in these mountainous regions of western North America that is unmatched during the last 3.5 millennia.

In other words the exceptional ring-width growth in bristlecone pine at treeline is clear evidence of temperature rise in the mountain environment, and by logical extension of the existence of global warming. Over this same period, unique growth levels, as we have seen, have also been recorded for human population and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, which seemingly point towards an association between population rise, burgeoning levels of man-made CO2, and global warming.

4.2.4 Ice Cores A valuable source of proxy data on ancient climates is also provided by ice cores. Successful implementation of the coring technique, which is critical to the acquisition of good samples, relies on modern and sophisticated drilling methods to extract the cylindrical cores. These can be many hundreds of metres (3000 m in Antarctica) long, drawn out of glaciers and ice sheets using hollow cylindrical drills (generally 4–6 m long). Obviously very many cycles of drilling have to be performed to accumulate a 3000 m core, which represents a journey back through time of about 400,000 years. The procedure has been applied in many glaciated locations around the world, from Kilimanjaro to Antarctica. Such cores are graduated like a bar code with each bar or layer representing a year of snow precipitation in the vicinity of the glacier. Falling snow can trap many chemicals or elements (e.g. CO2, isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, methane, nitrous oxide) within it as it falls through the atmosphere, and these are found within the ice itself or in trapped air bubbles. The proportions of these materials in the ancient atmosphere in any given year can be measured with little difficulty by employing modern, very accurate, chemical analysis techniques, including spectroscopy, although beyond 800 years into the past, separation of the layers, on an annual basis, becomes impractical. Decadal, or longer, periods are much easier to accommodate. Relative temperature data, in these ice core records, is provided by the isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen. For example, the ratio of the oxygen isotope 18O to the more natural 16O, and the ratio of the isotopes 2H to 1H, are influenced by both the rate of evaporation of water from ancient oceans and the rate of snow precipitation at the polar ice caps. These occurrences are related to temperature, which implies that the prevalence of heavy isotopes in sections of the ice core is likely to be indicative of particularly warm periods in the distant past. Consequently if the ice core rings can be accurately dated and if the isotope measurements can be calibrated in temperature, then a time elapsed graph of temperature (upper blue

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming

73

Fig. 4.6 Temperature and CO2 records as determined from an Antarctic ice core

trace), as shown in Fig. 4.6, can be generated. The cyclic nature of the record over a period extending from 420,000 years before the present (BP) until today, is very clear. These cycles provide strong visual evidence of the Milankovich cycles discussed in Sect. 4.1. As indicated earlier the greenhouse gas CO2 is also trapped in the ice and again modern measurement methods can determine with little difficulty its concentration in parts per million by volume (ppmv) in the ancient air. When this record (lower red trace) is superimposed on the temperature record in Fig. 4.6, the correlation between greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature is unmistakable. The phenomenon is not just an artefact of the recent interest in global temperature, which has been triggered by global warming worries, but has been a feature of climate behaviour for over half a million years.

4.2.5 Global Warming and Solar Activity Is it possible that current evidence of global warming could simply be associated with natural solar activity as it has in the past, according to the ice core records? Is our growing concern, that rising temperatures today are caused by inexorable increases in atmospheric CO2 due to the burning of fossil-fuels, largely unfounded? The vast majority of scientists represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change would flatly answer ‘no’, yet a small but well funded group of scientists, who do not dispute the existence of warming, are strongly committed to establishing an alternative solar hypothesis [23–25] in order to explain the currently observed global temperature rise. In an article published in 1991 in Science, two Danish climatologists [23] presented results which generated worldwide interest at the time. Firstly they claimed that they had been able to demonstrate ‘strikingly good agreement’ between solar cycle lengths (associated with sun-spots) and land/air temperatures

74

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

Fig. 4.7 Comparison of solar activity (crosses) with earth’s ground/air temperature (asterisks) for the period 1860–1990

in the northern hemisphere. Solar cycle lengths are related to fluctuating levels of cosmic rays (mostly protons) emitted by the sun. One cycle extends from a maximum of ray intensity [terrestrial solar insolation (TSI) in some papers] to the next nearest maximum, or alternatively from a minimum to a minimum. The published graph, which seemed most seriously to undermine the anthropogenic theory of warming, is replicated in Fig. 4.7. It shows solar cycle length over the period 1860–1990 (curve with crosses symbols—left hand scale) and temperature deviation from the long term average (curve with asterisks—right hand scale). The numbers 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 on the graph were inserted by Laut [26], who has studied the Danish results with admirable thoroughness. Figure 4.7, as Laut points out, is not all it seems to be, since it manifests a lapse into poor scientific method. The first 20 points (up to point 0) on the solar cycle graph are filtered, with each point representative of a running average performed over five measured cycles, so that each point encompasses an approximately 55 year time period (a cycle is typically 11–12 years long). The scale is then adjusted so that when superimposed on a graph of northern hemisphere temperatures the correlation seems quite impressive. However, the 1860–1970 time period covered by the twenty filtered points does not include the recent continuing rise in temperature, which has been recorded since about 1970. Consequently, some more recent solar cycle data points have been introduced [25, 26] which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 on the graph. Unfortunately these points are not averaged in the same way as the previous twenty, and the upward trend in the solar cycle length, which seems to follow the temperature rise, is therefore spurious. Points 1 and 2 are only partially filtered, while points 3 and 4 are not filtered at all. When appropriate filtering is applied to the post 1970 points [26] point 4 is no higher than point 3, and the attribution of recent global warming to solar activity is no longer sustainable.

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming

75

Fig. 4.8 Global temperature versus solar activity up to 2009

Adding data to a statistically processed graph, when this data is not treated in the same way as points on the original graph, is clearly bad science. It suggests carelessness, or at worst unscientific bias, on the part of the perpetrators. Instead of forming a theory around the facts, which is how science should be progressed, these researchers seem to have tried to make the facts support their theory—in this case a connection between global warming and cosmic rays. Unfortunately it is too easy for erroneous science of this calibre to be latched onto by writers of popular or quirky science [27], and once it reaches this level it can be very difficult to eradicate it from public memory. The solar hypotheses are rather well described and documented by Rapp [6]. But even for a scientist in the ‘naysayer’ camp he is forced to conclude that: ‘‘the connection of variable TSI to climate change since the Maunder Minimum (if any) is difficult to resolve’’. The Maunder Minimum defines a period in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries when the observational record appears to indicate that sun-spot activity was unusually low. This is clearly shown in Fig. 4.8.

4.2.6 Climate Change Denial Climate change deniers of today, if transported back to an environmentally friendly era when tall multi-masted wooden sailing ships were patently seen to disappear slowly over the horizon as they became increasingly distant from the

76

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

shore, would probably have been ‘flat-earthers’. There is a long tradition, or more accurately a disreputable habit, for supposedly intelligent humans to dismiss scientific findings with little serious enquiry. The list of examples of denialist causes is long. Recent cases range from modern ‘flat-earthers’ denying the moon landings, to vested interests denying the evidence of the links between HIV and AIDS, smoking and cancer, chlorofluorocarbons and the ozone hole, to conspiracy theorists denouncing the use of vaccines. Unlike misguided scientists who merely do a disservice to science, deniers are strongly motivated to dissemble, distort and undermine science, which seems perplexing to them and is viewed as harbouring sinister agendas. The phenomenon of denialism, as far as it has been studied [17], appears to be related to a need for people to regain a sense of control over uncaring nature, which science and scientists continue to reveal unhelpfully in their unemotional modus operandi based wholly on evidence. Many denialists would identify themselves as sceptics, but this is quite disingenuous. Good scientists would also describe themselves as sceptics, because the essence of science is to question and test new claims or findings and to accept them only if the evidence becomes unassailable. But whether the evidence is for or against, the scientist he will accommodate the facts which ever way they point. The denialist will not. He has his position staked out in advance, and merely sorts through the evidence looking for the confirmatory snippets which reinforce his belief. The phenomenon of denialism is typically propelled by ideology, and perhaps even religious dogma, so that for its adherents it is much more important to keep faith with the ideology than to properly weigh the evidence. The belief itself precedes and pre-empts the reasons for belief. Naturally, therefore, those reasons can be sifted in a preordained fashion, to ensure that the faith remains unsullied. Denialism is not intrinsically malicious, although it often appears to be so, nor is it necessarily targeted against science. In fact science of a sort is often used to form alternative explanations. While erroneous interpretations of scientific research may be employed by denialists to make their case, and while their intentions may be misguided and even mischievous, it is probably fair to say that most of the time they are not obviously dishonest. As a special report in recent issue of New Scientist (May 2010) puts it, denialism gains strength because it: only requires people to think the way most people do: in terms of anecdote, emotion and cognitive short cuts. Denialist explanations may be couched in sciency language, but they rest on anecdotal evidence and the emotional appeal of regaining control.

Climate change denialists are typically business orientated, fierce promoters of economic growth, admirers of the ‘free-market’ and globalisation, with a right wing political agenda which is distrustful of ‘big government’, as they tend to describe all government, and pathologically averse to taxes. The climate change campaign in particular is seen as a left wing conspiracy to undermine free-trade and to enlarge government through the imposition of massive ‘green’ taxes. Not surprisingly, few scientists have joined the ranks of deniers, but for those who have done so it is quite apparent that their powerful backers have been instrumental in ensuring that they become very ‘visible’ to the general public through the media.

4.2 Anthropogenic Global Warming

77

Several have written books supporting their views [28, 29]2 but generally the scientific rigour which one expects to find in the development of a coherent case, are absent. One such book has been scathingly and trenchantly reviewed by Michael Ashley, the professor of astrophysics at the University of New South Wales, who is quoted as observing: [the author] has done an enormous disservice to science, and the dedicated scientists who are trying to understand climate and the influence of humans, by publishing this book. It is not ‘‘merely’’ atmospheric scientists that would have to be wrong for [the author] to be right. It would require a rewriting of biology, geology, physics, oceanography, astronomy and statistics. [This] book deserves to languish on the shelves along with similar pseudoscience such as the writings of Immanuel Velikovsky and Erich von Daniken.

Many of the more outlandish effusions of the denial lobby, which are particularly strident and prolific on a number of internet sites, are countered with typical thoroughness by George Monbiot the author of ‘‘Heat’’ [30] in www.monbiot.com. A recent survey, conducted in December 2009 by Rasmussen Reports, has suggested that only 25% of Americans believe that there is a consensus among scientists on the existence of global warming, whereas 52% believe that there is significant disagreement among scientists on the question. A poll by the same organization in February 2010 found that 47% of voters in the United States are of the opinion that global warming is the result of long-term planetary trends, whereas only 35% accept that it is the result of human activity. It is rather discouraging to have to acknowledge, if these polling statistics can be believed, that the denial lobby has succeeded in spreading confusion, when there is none, in the public at large, and particularly in the USA. Virtually no reputable scientists dispute the evidence of anthropogenic warming. It is now patently clear that there are very few issues which are in any way still subject to fundamental debate among climatologists. Consensus is strong as to the existence of the greenhouse effect, the increase in CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) over the last hundred years and its human cause, and the fact the planet warmed significantly over the 20th Century are not much in doubt. The IPCC has described these factors as ‘virtually certain’ or ‘unequivocal’. That warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to human activity is also pretty well established, as we have seen. What this means is that serious scientists consider that warming and human activity are ‘highly’ correlated. Consequently, the prediction that further warming will continue as CO2 levels continue to rise is well supported. In answer to colloquial questions like: ‘‘Is anthropogenic warming real?’’, the scientific answer is ‘yes’ with high confidence. As Sir Nicholas Stern, the UK Government’s advisor on the economics of climate change, has put it:

2

The arguments that Plimer [29] advances in the 503 pages and 2311 footnotes in Heaven and Earth are largely non-science and nonsense. The book is largely a collection of contrarian ideas and conspiracy theories that are rife in the blogosphere. The writing is rambling and repetitive and to an applied scientist like myself, the arguments are flawed and illogical.

78

4 Thermodynamics and Climate If you look at all the serious scientists in the world, there is no big disagreement on the basics of this.

4.3 Ecological Succession In the discussion of the emergence of life introduced in Chap. 3, it was postulated that there must have been a transition from pre-life molecular complexity in the primordial soup, to the evolution of replicating molecules representing the beginnings of life. The argument was elegantly advanced with the aid of some astute mathematical developments due to Wicken, who reasoned that thermodynamically the process must be governed by an equation of the following form: Q1e Q2e DS ¼ DSi þ ð4:1Þ T1 T2 As has already been noted, this equation represents the condition for evolutionary self-organisation, but at the planetary level it also underpins the thermodynamic processes associated with the development of an ecosystem.

4.3.1 Cooperative Species From the perspective of the theory of evolution, which hypothesises that organisms are genetically constrained to function in accordance with the dictates of ‘survival of the fittest’, it is interesting that while this goal is essentially selfish at the genetic level, it has nevertheless clearly resulted in the members of some species acquiring characteristics which are complementary to those in other species, and that their survival depends on doing so—obvious examples being bees and flowers, ants and acacias, small tropical fishes and sea anemones. A particularly startling manifestation of ‘co-operators’, or ‘mutualists’, which is the more technical term, can be seen on coral reefs, or what’s left of them. Small cleaner fishes (a species of the wrasse genus Labroides) can easily be detected by the observant snorkeler picking parasites from the skin and jaws of large predators such as coral cod (Cephalopholis miniata). The predators have evolved recognition of the cleaners, while the cleaners recognise that they are recognised! In other words complex linkages and cooperative behaviours between species evidently exist for survival reasons, which at some level, presumably drives the evolution of ecosystems. The phenomenon is termed co-evolution. But are these relationships purely fortuitous and haphazard, or is there a cooperative unifying imperative imposed by the survival of the biosystem itself? As Lovelock [13] has observed ‘‘Perhaps there is wisdom in the workings of Gaia (the earth system) and the way she interprets the selfish gene’’. So can the earth system as a whole be considered to be a coherent living entity

4.3 Ecological Succession

79

with an essentially fixed set of ingredients (contributing species) and a thermodynamic goal (gradient reduction)? Equation (4.1) seems to suggest that thermodynamics can provide the answer.

4.3.2 Ecosystem Development That there is an inter-connectedness to life, and a pattern to species interaction, has been confirmed by measurement and observation over many years, although the significance of what was being recorded has not always been as clear, perhaps, as it is today. The existence of patterns in the way that landscapes change and develop has been chronicled by dedicated observers for over some 200 years. For example environment watchers [31] have painstakingly and meticulously set down in journals how abandoned fields if left long enough progress from grassland to shrub-land then to pine and birch covered landscape. Others have noted that, eventually the fast-growing but shade intolerant tree varieties are superseded by sturdy hardwoods leading to the establishment of mature forests of oak, maple and hickory. Repeated observations over generations by a myriad of chroniclers has demonstrated that this kind of successional sequence, which can occur over a century or more, is actually quite predictable. Furthermore, the record suggests that all ecosystems whether land based or lake based or ocean based, seem to adhere to successional rules. Evolution evidently progresses by cooperation and mutual dependence among organisms, and as Marqulis and Sagan observe, in Microcosmos [32]: Life did not take over the globe by combat, but by networking.

Succession in ecological systems takes many forms, but always, it seems, rapidly growing pioneering organisms are first to settle in an unoccupied space, followed by new species which enhance, establish and consolidate the nascent ecosystem. In the process of consolidation, diversity inevitably increases, the ecosystem becomes more complex, but the rate of growth diminishes. It is apparent from countless studies that the system is not just a random and heterogeneous agglomeration of organisms, coincidently establishing themselves in the same place and the same time, otherwise the seemingly ‘purposeful’ progress, which is consistently recorded, would not be apparent. Also it is difficult to argue that this purposefulness is genetically based, since ecosystems vary substantially in there composition, yet all seem to possess the same propensity to expand to a limit [31]. When viewed from a thermodynamic perspective, this behaviour becomes less mysterious. As it develops and matures the ecosystem is seeking to access all easily exploitable energy degrading paths, so by the time it gets to maturity it has optimised energy throughput. In terms of Eq. 4.1, it is possible to infer that for a growing and/or mature ecosystem DSi will be negative as energy is absorbed by the non-equilibrium living systems and converted to chemical potential or biomass. At the same time the energy wasted or dissipated by the ecosystem (Q2e)

80

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

will diminish and become less than the energy absorbed (Q1e). The difference between these two quantities, namely: DE ¼ Q1e Q2e

ð4:2Þ

represents the penetration energy which is converted to biomass. For an area of planet covered by a ‘climax’ or fully mature ecosystem, DS will ideally tend to zero, and Q1e Q2e ð4:3Þ DSi ¼ T1 T2 In this case, all penetration energy is converted to biomass. On the other hand, over desert DSi = 0, and the governing thermodynamic condition is Eq. 4.4: Q1e Q2e ¼0 ð4:4Þ T1 T2

4.3.3 Efficiency of Ecosystems In studies of the ecology of islands [33, 34], it has been noted that species diversity doubles for each ten fold increase in the size of the island, but more interestingly it has been observed that when new species settled on a given island possessing a mature ecosystem, other species tend to disappear or die out. The ecosystem seems to operate at an equilibrium level in terms of total number of species. To calibrate this process investigators have termed early island colonisers r species, while later arrivals in the successional process are referred to as K species [35]. The r species are thus fast growing varieties which reproduce by spawning vast numbers of offspring. On the other hand, K species are generally mature, long-lived and slow growing, and tend to invest significant energy in new life. All species can be characterised, or classified, as being in the r or K category—except homo-sapiens, which is long-lived and invests a high level of attention in its offspring (K behaviour), but is also breeding prolifically (r behaviour). As we shall see, this would not have been possible if mankind had not learned to ‘cheat’ nature by exploiting ancient sunshine. The first coherent analysis of ecosystems from the perspective of thermodynamics and energy flows seems to have been attributable to Margalef [35]. Much of his research, which relied on studying the behaviour of Mediterranean ecosystems, revolved around the determination of the time that energy endures within the system, from its arrival as solar photons until its expulsion to the external environment or energy sink. On the basis of these investigations, he ventures that, firstly, the average distance between the position of a photons arrival and absorption into the ecosystem and its ejection to the sink, is a measure of the

4.3 Ecological Succession

81

Fig. 4.9 Successional development of an ecosystem as a function of time, showing changes in basic characteristics. (adapted from Schneider and Sagan [31])

system’s complexity. Secondly, the persistence time of energy in the system is perceived to provide a measure of its maturity. Margalef also developed the concept of metabolic ratios as a measure of the efficiency of an ecosystem to generate biomass. This ratio (P/B), between primary production (of new growth (P)) and already existing biomass (B) within the ecosystem is a measure of the efficiency of the system in maintaining life and biodiversity. The situation is summarised in Fig. 4.9 which provides a qualitative depiction of the development of a forest ecosystem. Early in its development, primary production (P) is high, so P/B is high. But as the system matures and biomass accumulates (B) the P/B ratio shrinks indicative of an efficient system. The energy required by the system to maintain itself (respiration—Q2e) grows as the system expands then stabilises as it matures. Gross energy throughput (Q1e) including production of biomass is depicted by the dashed curve P. The difference between this curve and the respiration curve R is representative of the net production of biomass [DE in Eq. 4.2]. The emerging ecosystem is not unlike a growing human animal. At the infant and adolescent stages it requires lots of food as it builds muscle and bulk, but once it becomes a mature adult energy intake is used more efficiently to maintain basic functions and activities. The foregoing has been summarised rather neatly and potently by Clements [36], in the following paragraph: The unit of vegetation of the climax formation is an organic entity. As an organism, the formation arises, grows, matures and dies…. Furthermore, each climax formation is able to reproduce itself, repeating the essential fidelity of the stages of development. The life

82

4 Thermodynamics and Climate history of the formation is a complex definite process, comparable in its chief features with the life history of an individual plant… The climax formation is an adult organism, of which the initial and medial stages are but stages of development.

Furthermore, according to Schneider and Sagan [31], the successional growth of ecosystems is a manifestation of the fact that: ‘‘Life is connected to, contingent upon, and organised by energy’’. The conclusion seems inescapable, from these recent developments in ecological research, that ecosystems are not just random collections of diverse life-forms operating independently. The ecosystem as a whole is an energy-processing organised entity, seeking to use available energy as efficiently as possible. There is a cooperative cohesiveness to the life processes within it, enabling the ecosystem to progress to its optimum gradient reducing form. That an optimum or climax condition is reached merely emphasises the fact that the surface area of the planet, occupied by the ecosystem of interest, is irradiated by an unchanging level of solar power averaged over days—i.e. the energy flow to the system is bounded. Schneider and Sagan [31] express the evolutionary role of the ecosystem as follows: Systems that capture more energy and efficiently convert that energy into offspring are less apt to be eliminated in the selective process. Natural selection favours systems adept at managing thermodynamic flows. The most effective systems, be they organisms, ecosystems, or biospheres, appear to increase their diversity until they achieve local optima of energy flow.

4.4 Gaia Theory As we have seen earlier in this chapter the consensus scientific view on the link between the burning of fossil fuels and atmospheric warming has moved towards a level of assuredness probably equivalent to the degree of certainty expressed by medical practitioners on the relationship between smoking and cancer. This being so we need to understand the association between greenhouse gases (smoke) and ecosystems (lungs) as comprehensively as possible in order to find remedies for the problem, in much the same way as medical professionals have rapidly increased their knowledge of the smoking/lung cancer link in order to help their patients. Eco-thermodynamics has, by viewing living things and living communities as non-equilibrium gradient reducing systems, demonstrated that ecosystems, and the biosphere as a whole, represent natural coherent structures, full of biological diversity, which seek to optimise the energy flows through them, thus providing a stable habitat offering secure sustenance for the organisms and creatures forming and inhabiting them. To quote Schneider (see Weber et al. [37]) again: ‘‘every living organism’s success is dependent not only on its genetic heritage, and its life producing chemical reactions—but also on its ability to succeed in a sea of ever changing environmental variables’’. However,

4.4 Gaia Theory

83

in order to diagnose the ills, which may be afflicting the ‘global patient’ (our warming planet) we need to appreciate the nature of the metabolic processes in the ‘lungs of a healthy patient’.

4.4.1 Trophic Levels As we now know, it is the energy of photons flowing from the sun towards the earth, which by powering bio-chemical reactions has, with the proliferation of suitable chemicals here on earth, the capacity to set the process of life in motion and maintain it. But it is at a cost. The energy losses involved in the maintenance of diverse life forms is very high, as others have shown [38, 39]. Energy and material transmission up food chains, and their accompanying losses to heat and thereby entropy at each step, give rise to trophic (nutrition) levels [40] for an ecosystem, or for the biosphere as a whole, which can be represented in three dimensions by layered spherical shells (see Fig. 4.10). Figure 4.10 depicts a 2D-hemi-spherical slice of the postulated trophic shell structure. If we divide the hemisphere into four pyramidal segments this representation can be seen to be equivalent to the classical trophic pyramid, which is more commonly employed in descriptive texts. The diagram attempts to depict the energy flow (in the food chain) through an ideal environmentally sustainable system. The autotrophs or primary producers in the large outer shell 2 convert by photosynthesis about 1% of the solar energy impinging on them (inwardly directed arrows) into plentiful low energy biomass (food). Then herbivores from insect to elk (middle shell 3), consume autotrophs thereby generating a smaller volume (smaller shell) of higher energy biomass, and they in turn are eaten by carnivores (inner shell 4) and perhaps subsequently eaten by other carnivores. The second law exacts a metabolic toll which dictates that by far the largest mass of bio-energetic material accumulates at the outer shell produced by the autotrophs, but more concentrated energy—higher potential or chemical energy per unit of weight—is available in herbivores for consumption by the carnivores in the small inner shell. Each time food (chemical energy) passes up the food chain, 80–90% of its energy content is lost to heat (entropy increase in the environment)—shown in the diagram as red (three-line) outward pointing arrows. The energy or mass transfer efficiencies (‘metabolic’ process) between trophic levels range from 20% to approximately 0.01%. Of course, once nature generates metabolites at the lowest level through photosynthesis, it is selfevident that at the next level of the food chain, no more resynthesising is necessary but nature has to repackage these most basic biochemicals of life to meet the energy intense needs of organisms at a higher level. The CO2 produced by the heterotrophs is expelled to the atmosphere (represented by the outer shell 1), and this CO2 pool is accessed by the autotrophs in photosynthesis. In this ideal sustainable system humans share the pink shell with other

84

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

Fig. 4.10 Ideal biosphere illustrated in the form of trophic (nutrition level) shells. Shell 2 is the autotrophic component (plant growth), shell 3 contains the herbivores while the carnivores including mankind are accommodated in the inner shell (shell 4-heterotrophs). This small inner volume of carnivores requires huge numbers of herbivores and plants to sustain it, which is indicated by the increasing volumes of the encircling regions. The white region (5) represents the need to handle waste and detritus (D), and in this region, the associated micro-organisms (l), which break it down to produce CO2, O2, N2, H2O and C, exist. The CO2 produced by organisms and animals gravitates to the CO2 pool (shell 1) in the atmosphere to be used by the autotrophs (plants), while O2 generated by photosynthesis also gravitates there—to be used by the herbivores and carnivores. Also, in accordance with the first law, the energy supplied by the sun, for a system in thermal equilibrium, is balanced by the heat conducted and convected through the atmosphere and hence radiated into space

carnivores and are assumed to survive through hunting and simple farming, which perhaps ‘unnaturally’ increases the area of ‘grass’ land and the numbers of herbivores, but not enough to upset the ecological balance. They live, as a result, essentially in sympathy with nature, competing for energy gradients fostered and sustained by ‘current sunshine’.

4.4.2 Climax Ecosystem It is clear from Fig. 4.9 (Q1e curve) that as an ecosystem matures it degrades more and more of the solar energy it intercepts, which implies that energy dissipated

4.4 Gaia Theory

85

back into the external environment must have a high entropy level. This supports the assertion that the richness or maturity of an ecosystem also correlates with temperature-gradient reduction. It is well known that rain forests are cooler than grassland expanses or deserts. Technically it is possible to measure the gradient degradation, sometimes termed exergy drop, across ecosystems by making a comparison between the intercepted energy from the sun and the reradiated energy from the ‘warm’ surfaces of the system. More efficient or mature ecosystems will present a lower ‘black body’ temperature to the environmental sink. In simple terms, the ecosystem, or the biosphere for that matter, as it develops, is processing the energy content of the incident solar radiation to maximise its usefulness to the system while it expands to create an area on the surface of the earth where the temperature gradient between earth and outer space is minimised. So, according to Schneider and Sagan [31]: The ecosystem must be viewed as an active element with processes and structure, configuring itself to capture and degrade as much exergy as possible. In the rain forests, multiple canopies of leaves collect energy all the way to the forest floor, where broad-leaved ground-hugging plants extract as much of the remaining exergy as possible.

The term ‘active element’ in this quotation, I have italicised, because it is really rather significant. It implies that the ecosystem exercises some control over its environment, which is essentially the Gaia Hypothesis [13] when applied to the biosphere, or the earth system as Lovelock terms it. Actually, cybernetic control mechanisms are not uncommon in biology, nor in ecology. Control mechanisms, which achieve equilibrium in biological systems (homeostatic control), have long been studied in physiology while ecologists have been recording biochemical feedback and energy cycles for decades [39]. In the ‘wild’, that is in a natural ecosystem, the existence of feedback control is well documented. Prey and predator populations are regulated continually by such mechanisms [41]. The ecosystem is not, of course, hardwired like a computer to perform this cybernetic control, but nevertheless it does have recognisable informational attributes such as feedback, amplification and stability criteria [35, 38]. Schneider and Sagan [31] has made the following observation: ‘‘These processes not only control the biotic component of an ecosystem, but affect the non-biotic components as well’’. He uses the example of life in a small pond, which is known from close study, to control not only inorganic and organic chemical cycles in the water, but also to influence a distinctly physical parameter such as light and how much penetrates into the depth of the pond. In his Gaia hypothesis Lovelock [13] essentially applies this concept, of life controlling its environment, to the level of the earth system. He has proposed that living systems power, and their cybernetic control capabilities influence, the major geochemical cycles of the planet. So, it follows that the earth’s atmosphere and its composition must have been developed by nascent life, and that today it is maintained and controlled by terrestrial and marine ecosystems covering the planetary surface.

86

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

4.4.3 Climate Controlling Biosphere During the 3.5 billion years, since life has appeared on earth, the Sun has grown inexorably hotter, as the nuclear furnaces that power it, age. The Sun of course is also expanding and will consume earth in another billion years—this need not worry us given our present problems! So during the inter-glacials when the sun is at its closest to the earth, why does the earth’s temperature always stabilize at about 14C and atmospheric CO2 stabilize at around 280 ppmv according to ice core records? After all, the largely hot dead planet Venus, our close neighbour, has an atmosphere that is almost wholly CO2. The answer is the controlling mechanisms of the biosphere, or the earth system. Terrestrial vegetation and marine algae use CO2, in pursuing energy degradation as mandated by thermodynamics, thus removing it from the atmosphere. Lower abundance of this greenhouse gas means less of the sun’s radiation is trapped so cooling is achieved. In addition marine organisms produce gases that, when oxidised in air, make tiny particles, termed cloud condensation nuclei. Without these focal points water molecules in the air would not condense as droplets forming clouds. Clouds represent another mechanism by which the cooperating ecosystems forming the biosphere keep earth cool. In a warming scenario, the presumption is that, in a highly diverse ecosystem, those plants and organisms which favour high CO2 and high temperature will flourish, so pumping down CO2 and creating conditions for cloud formation until the planet cools to an equable level. The opposite will occur in a cooling scenario. The current era in the history of the planet, the earth system is close to a crisis point, because the sun is now too hot for comfort [13]. The system is required to work very hard, through the agency of its diverse and still extensive ecosystems, in order to continue pumping down CO2, so cooling earth to a point where the polar latitudes remain extensively ice covered and cloud covered. The resultant highly reflecting surfaces provides another cooling mechanism, by returning a high percentage of incident solar rays back into space. This glacial regime locks so much of earth’s fixed volume of H2O into anchored ice sheets on Greenland, Antarctica and in high mountain regions, that the sea level is more than 100 m lower than it would otherwise be. These processes no longer represent speculative interpretations about the workings of our climate. They are entering mainstream ecological science and the evidence is growing that the Gaia hypothesis itself is consolidating into a reliable theory. Lovelock [13] is of the opinion that the frosty view of the scientific community to the Gaia concept, began to melt at an international meeting in Amsterdam in 2001, which requested delegates to sign a declaration which contained the words: ‘‘The earth system behaves as a single self-regulating system comprised of physical, biological and human components’’. The ‘human components’ interfere with this thermostatic control system, as they are beginning to do, at their peril. Thermodynamics has taken us a long way in procuring an in depth understanding of earth’s climate, by viewing the biosphere and life as gradient degrading, energy flow systems. Through equilibrium and non-equilibrium

4.4 Gaia Theory

87

thermodynamics many previously mysterious, or unsatisfactorily explained, processes in biology and ecology are now comfortably understood, and the applications of the expanded laws have helped to demystify many of the seemingly arbitrary rules of ‘mother nature’. The interdependence of species and their interrelationships within ecosystems, which we have examined in this chapter, represent further examples of the power of thermodynamics to provide comprehensive and coherent explanations of complex energy driven systems, and gives further confidence that we can rely on this discipline to guide us toward an explanation of global warming and its source.

4.5 Thermodynamics of the Greenhouse The greenhouse effect in earth’s atmosphere is so called because it is likened to the process, which permits a glass enclosed greenhouse or solarium to heat up simply by trapping solar rays. But the two phenomena are actually subtly different. In the solarium or gardener’s greenhouse the optical rays for the sun on striking the enclosing panes of glass are minimally impeded from entering the structure because the glass has a low refractive index (typically 1.5, which gives a power transmission coefficient of about 85%). On striking the furnishings or plant racks within the building, the solar photons produce warming, and the warmed surfaces reradiate low frequency infrared rays. For an air filled greenhouse the infrared is absorbed and scattered by constituents of air such as CO2, water vapour and ozone, which are responsive to photons at infrared frequencies, thus warming the air and further warming the plant boxes etc. Some heat will be lost to the outside world by infrared radiation transmitting through the glass, although if the glass panes are arranged to be about a quarter or three-quarters of a wavelength thick (2–5 mm), this can be reduced significantly. In addition, the glass panes, are poor conductors of heat and prevent loss by conduction, although to achieve really low heat transmission an insulating inert gas layer sandwiched between panes (double glazing) is recommended—as any house holder living in a cold climate well knows. Consequently on a favourable day the enclosure will continue to warm up until heat loss (which increases with internal temperature rise) balances heat supplied, or until a controlling thermostat opens vents to admit cool air. The ‘global greenhouse’, showing heat flow magnitudes and directions, is depicted schematically in Fig. 4.11. Like the gardener’s greenhouse the main source of heating is the radiated power in the solar rays at an almost constant daily level of 342 W/m2. Approximately 30% of these rays are reflected back into space by the earth’s atmosphere, clouds and surface. Of the remainder about a third is absorbed by the atmosphere and the rest is absorbed in the ground where the photon energy striking the sea or land areas produces warming. The warmed surfaces then act as ‘black body’ sources of low frequency infrared rays (*390 W/m2). This figure is larger than the daily incoming photon bombardment because the planet has been warmed by the Sun for millennia and has settled along

88

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

Fig. 4.11 Illustration of the global greenhouse showing heat flow directions (from IVth IPCC assessment report [43])

with the atmosphere at an equilibrium temperature (at least before the industrial revolution) which results in a balance of heat flows at the surface and at the outer edge of the atmosphere. Note that at the edge of the atmosphere, in the vacuum of space, escaping heat (342 W/m2) can exist only in the form of radiation. The low frequency black body radiation from the earth’s surface is directed towards the atmosphere, which contains CO2, ozone and water vapour, all absorbers of infrared radiation (see Fig. 4.1). The absorption mechanism can be loosely described as follows. Photons at the requisite frequency, and hence with precise levels of energy, can trigger an energy transition or resonance in the CO2, H2O or O3 molecules, which become more energetic and thus warmer. A transition back to the original energy level will occur for those molecules, which are cooled by rising through the atmosphere by the agency of convection processes, when they will re-emit infra-red radiation into space or back toward earth. The result of these quantum mechanical processes is the greenhouse effect. Unlike the man made greenhouse, however, some of these secondary radiations are not contained by a glass enclosure, but pass out into space [42]. The above mechanism explains how the atmosphere forms an insulating ‘blanket’ around the earth which for aeons has prevented it from becoming a lifeless icy orb. However, fossil fuel burning activities by mankind are increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, from a level of 280 ppmv in 1800, to 370 ppmv today. In addition, as the proportion of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere gradually rises by burning fossil fuels, so the more insulating does the blanket become [5, 6]. The earth warms because the first law of thermodynamics requires that the power flow balance, which has been disturbed, must be restored [44]. The global thermal imbalance is further complicated by the presence in the atmosphere of aerosols and particulates [45, 46], which through a process termed nucleation accelerates the formation of reflective water droplets in

4.5 Thermodynamics of the Greenhouse

89

the upper troposphere. It is becoming clear that the enhanced cloud albedo, which results, is masking (termed ‘global cooling’) the warming effect of CO2. Measurements of temperature at key locations in the USA, when there were no ‘con trails’ following the grounding of all aircraft after 9/11, showed a marked jump in level, seemingly confirming the aerosol influence on the global warming. The fossil fuel energy, which was produced in ‘ancient times’, when burned today, is not dissimilar to the introduction of a heater into our ‘greenhouse’. This heat must go somewhere in our biosphere bounded planetary system and the ‘somewhere’ is anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere and the surface layers of the globe. This is hugely exacerbated by the increasing CO2 which is like double glazing the panes of glass forming the greenhouse so that they introduce a greater barrier to the transfer of heat to the outside world. Without a thermostat to control cooling vents, the greenhouse would obviously get too hot, as the temperature rises to restore equilibrium between heat input and heat loss. Likewise, without an earth system thermostat, which is provided by the biodiversity of the global eco-system, global warming would be uncontrolled. Unfortunately the effectiveness of the earth’s thermostat, which takes the form of the biosphere or Lovelock’s great earth system, is being degraded by man’s activities. In Lovelock’s [18] elegant language which masks a dire message: What makes global warming so serious and so urgent is that the great Earth system, Gaia, is trapped in a vicious circle of positive feed back. Extra heat from any source, whether from greenhouse gases, the disappearance of the Arctic ice or the Amazon forest, is amplified, and its effects are more than additive. It is almost as if we had lit a fire to keep warm, and failed to notice, as we piled on the fuel, that the fire was out of control and the furniture had ignited. When that happens, little time is left to put out the fire. Global warming, like a fire, is accelerating and almost no time is left to act.

The climate change problem which, unless it is addressed quickly, promises to bring considerable grief to future generations, will be pondered further in Chap. 5. There the activities of the dominant earthly species, which are contributing to ecological deterioration, are deliberated.

References 1. Weart SR (2003) The discovery of global warming: new histories of science technology and medicine. Harvard University Press, Massachusetts 2. Hulbert EO (1931) The temperature of the lower atmosphere on earth. Phys Rev 38:1876–1890 3. Chandrasekhar S (1950) Radiative transfer. Clarendon Press, Oxford 4. Milankovitch M (1941) Canon of insolation and the ice age problem. Zavod za Udz˘benike i Nastavna Sredstva, Belgrade 5. Plass GN (1956) The carbon dioxide theory of climate change. Tellus 8:140–154 6. Rapp D (2010) Assessing climate change. Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester 7. Flannery T (2007) The weather makers. Penguin Books, London 8. Kumar M (2008) Quantum. Icon Books, London 9. Muller I (2007) A history of thermodynamics. Springer, Berlin

90

4 Thermodynamics and Climate

10. Hansen JE, Lebedeff S (1955) Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J Geophys Res 92:13345–13372. http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1987/1987_Hansen_Lebedeff.pdf 11. Howard JN, Burch DL, Williams D (1955) Near-infrared transmission through synthetic atmospheres. Geophysics research papers number 40, geophysics research directory, Air Force Cambridge Research Center, 244 pp 12. Goody RM (1964) Atmospheric radiation: I. theoretical basis. Clarendon, Oxford 13. Lovelock J (1979) Gaia: a new look at life on earth. Oxford University Press, Oxford 14. Lovelock J (2006) The revenge of Gaia. Penguin Books, London 15. Dukes JS (2003) Burning buried sunshine: human consumption of ancient solar energy. Climate Change 61:31–44 16. McIntyre S, McKitrick R (2005) Hockey sticks, principal component, and spurious significance. Geophys Res Lett 32 17. MacKenzie D (2010) Whose conspiracy. New Sci 206(2760):38–41 18. Lovelock, J (2004) The Independent, University of London, UK (24th May) 19. Saltzer MW et al. (2009) Recent unprecedented tree-ring growth in bristlecone pine at the highest elevations and possible causes. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0903029106 20. Mann ME, Bradley S, Hughes MK (1998) Global scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over past six centuries. Nature 14:751–771 21. Koerner C, Paulson J (2004) A worldwide study of high altitude treeline temperatures. J Biogeogr 31:713–732 22. Koerner C, Gunter H (2009) Growth and carbon relations of treeline forming conifers at constant versus variable low temperatures. J Ecol 97:57–66 23. Friis-Christensen E, Lassen K (1991) Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254:698–700 24. Lassen K, Friis-Christensen E (1995) Variability of the solar cycle length during the past five centuries and the apparent association with terrestrial climate. Sol-Terr Phys 57(8):835–845 25. Kristjansson JE, Staple A, Kristiansen J (2002) A new look at possible connections between solar activity, clouds and climate. Geophys Res Lett 29(23):2107–2110 26. Laut P (2003) Solar and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys 65:804–812 27. Calder N, Svensmark H (2007) The Chilling Stars: a new theory of climate change. Icon Books Ltd, London 28. Michaels P (ed) (2005) Shattered consensus: the true state of global warming. Rowan and Littlefield, New York 29. Plimer A (2009) Heaven and earth: global warming—the missing science. Quartet Books, London 30. Monbiot G (2006) Heat. Penguin, London 31. Schneider ED, Sagan D (2005) Into the cool. Chicago University Press, Chicago 32. Marqulis L, Sagan D (1997) Microcosmos: four billion years of microbial evolution. University of California Press, Los Angeles 33. MacArthur RH (1958) Population ecology of some warblers of north eastern coniferous forest. Ecology 39:599–619 34. MacArthur RH, Wilson EO (1963) An equilibrium theory of insular zoo-geography. Evolution 17:373–387 35. Margalef R (1968) Perspectives in ecological theory. University of Chicago Press, Chicago 36. Clements FE (1936) Nature and structure of the climax. J Ecol 24:252–425 37. Weber BH, Depew DJ, Smith JD (1990) Entropy, information and evolution (Chap. 6). MIT Press, Cambridge 38. Odum E (1971) Fundamentals of ecology. W. B Saunders, Philadelphia 39. Odum HT (1971) Environmental power and society. Wiley-Interscience, New York 40. Lindeman RL (1942) The trophic-dynamic aspect of ecology. Ecology 23:399–418 41. Hutchinson GE (1978) An introduction to population ecology. Yale University Press, New Haven

References

91

42. Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, O’Dell C, Wong T (2010) Relationships between tropical sea surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere radiation. Geophys Res Lett 37:L03702. doi: 10.1029/2009GL042314 43. Synthesis Report of the IPCC (2007) IVth assessment report, IPCC 44. Haigh J (2007) The Sun and the Earth’s climate. Liv Rev Solar Phys 4 (http://www. livingreviews.org/lrsp-2007-2) 45. Lohmann U, Feichter J (2005) Global indirect aerosol effects: a review. Atmos Chem Phys 5:715–737 46. Mozukewich M, Chan T–W, Verheggen Y–A (2004) Aerosol particle size distributions in the lower Frazer valley: evidence of particle nucleation and growth. Atmos Chem Phys 4:1047–1062

Chapter 5

Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell Edward Abbey ‘‘The general public, businessmen, governments, and many business economists appear to believe that population and per capita consumption can grow indefinitely, and that eventually all economic inequities can be eliminated by growth itself. To me and my colleagues, this is an entirely unwarranted assumption—and debunking it may be the single most important task of environmental and resource economists Paul R. Ehrlich

5.1 Thermodynamic Symptoms The power of thermodynamics to provide insights into the nature of complex systems has been fully investigated in previous chapters and that exploration has furnished us, hopefully, with a platform to examine global warming and climate change. At the time of writing, in 2010, it is becoming rather difficult to refute the evidence for such change, when many indications, of an environmental nature, are increasingly being identified and reported. Nevertheless the topic is still considered to be controversial, certainly by the media, which seems to delight in maintaining and prolonging the misinformation storm, stirred up by well resourced nay-sayers and deniers. So to help consolidate conventional explanations of the nature of the observed climate anomaly we shall seek assistance from the laws of thermodynamics, which as we have seen, govern those equilibrium and non-equilibrium systems that in crude terms degrade energy. It may be useful at this juncture to very briefly recapitulate relevant aspects of the preceding chapters, in order to reinforce the message that the laws of thermodynamics represent rather powerful analysis tools. Firstly, it was observed in Chap. 1 that in a closed adiabatic system—an example would be a steam engine together with its energy source, housed within an insulated and isolated chamber— the overall quality of the energy in the fuel will over time be degraded inexorably, as the engine delivers mechanical power. Entropy rises steadily in the form of residue, greenhouse gases and low grade heat. Or more generally, we can say that in a closed thermodynamic system, heat always flows spontaneously from a hotter reservoir to a colder one, perhaps doing work on the way, until there is no longer a temperature difference or gradient. The thermodynamic engine can be said to operate by gradient reduction. Actually, this gradient reduction property is not exclusive to man-made machines but it also exists in nature, as we have seen in Chap. 2. There, we showed that equilibrium thermodynamics can be employed successfully to

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_5, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

93

94

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

rationalise and explain the energy flows associated with processes which are essential to life, such as photosynthesis and animal metabolism. The evidence is that these flows accord fully with the laws of thermodynamics, for systems operating close to equilibrium. However, in the context of equilibrium thermodynamics living organisms present a difficulty for thermodynamics in that, as closed systems, they appear to contravene the second law. Entropy is seen to decrease (negentropy) in the process of building biomass. This problem is resolved by treating living systems as ‘open’ in a non-equilibrium thermodynamic paradigm. In Chap. 3 it is established that by accessing low entropy radiant energy from the Sun plants temporarily defy the second law in creating low entropy biomass by photosynthesis. This biomass is then a source of food for further low entropy cellular build-up in animals, as well as being a source of muscular energy. The penalty is waste production, resulting in high entropy low grade energy percolating into the environment. The biosphere, on the other hand, when viewed as a complete thermodynamic system, does not flout the second law. But the laws of thermodynamics in a non-equilibrium context dictate that ecosystems, and the biosphere as a whole, accommodate biodiversity in a symbiotic, mutually reinforcing gradient degrading system, which benefits not just the individual plants and animals within it, but the surrounding environment, keeping the ecosystem, and even Lovelock’s ‘great Earth system’ as he terms it, in thermal equilibrium. To the satisfaction of most scientists and interested observers, with an affinity for rational solutions based on evidence, climate science has unequivocally demonstrated that current global warming patterns are not related to solar cycles or sun spots [1]. In fact, if they were, then on the basis of historical trends the Earth should be entering an ice age [2]. Core activity within the Earth’s magma itself, since volcanic activity has been relatively benign for a very long time, can also be ruled out. As an applied scientist with a long interest in thermodynamics, it is therefore difficult not ask—if the heat build up on Earth is not associated with changes in the Sun’s output, or Earth’s core, what is causing it? The first law of thermodynamics has to be satisfied, and the only rational answer is that the source must be ‘ancient sunlight’ released by the burning of fossil fuels. While the direct heat released into the atmosphere from homes, power stations, factories and vehicles is insignificant in global thermodynamic terms, the influence on the biosphere of added carbon from ancient forests is not. The warming mechanism can be illustrated, in simple terms, by the application of relatively elementary thermodynamics to a typical garden greenhouse (see Chap. 12). Straightforward calculations show rather clearly that the introduction of a heat insulating argon layer between the panes of glass (double glazing) has a very significant effect on the equilibrium temperature maintained by the greenhouse. Furthermore it illustrates that an argon layer, which in volume is just over 0.15%, or 1500 ppmv, of the volume of the greenhouse itself, produces a very substantial temperature increase of nearly 50%. The evidence from thermodynamics is that thermal systems such as the biosphere are likely to

5.1 Thermodynamic Symptoms

95

be sensitive to the introduction of insulating mechanisms in the guise of greenhouse gases. Of course, the biosphere is immensely more complicated than a greenhouse. Nevertheless the analogy indicates that by burning fossil fuels and returning carbon to the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide molecules, which act like thermal insulation, humans are introducing an additional warming mechanism into the biosphere. It would clearly have been better for the biosphere if much of this fossil fuel bounty had been left where it belonged, safely sequestered deep within the planet as it has been for millions of years. In medical terms we are functioning much like a ‘virus’ infecting the body of an animal (the Earth system) which, if we prolong the medical analogy, is naturally suffering from ‘a temperature’. So how did mankind attain the ability to interfere in such a major way with the global climate, and the ‘great Earth system’? Most of us would probably be inclined to judge that the planet is far too vast to be susceptible to insignificant humans on its surface, but is it?

5.2 Drifting Towards Ecocide If you have ever viewed night time satellite images of the Earth (they are available on the internet), when the surface is not shrouded in cloud, the evidence of the presence of mankind is staggering. Excess light now splashes over virtually all of the industrialised nations of the globe. Cities, towns, villages, motorways, trunk roads and other travel routes are easily identified. Because of the range of technology, which is now available to mankind, the footprint of each human being on the surface of planet Earth is by no means insignificant. It is quite clear, that the relentless advance of technology, since the industrial revolution, could not have occurred at the rate that it has, without copiously available, inexpensive fossil fuels. But, as we have seen, concern about the waste products generated by widespread fossil fuel incineration was being expressed very early in the steam age, in fact as far back as 1850. In particular, scientists at the time, such as Fourier and Arrhenius, were greatly exercised by the unprecedented levels of exhaust gases, and other products, which were being dumped into the atmosphere. So cautionary papers were emanating from the science community from a very early stage in the industrial revolution, but they did not become really coherent for several more decades. As Mooney and Kirshenbaum have noted, in their recently published book ‘Unscientific America’ [3]: Scientific warnings about global warming go back decades, yet our political system has repeatedly failed to take action. We now find ourselves in a harsh predicament: Even if we move quickly to address the problem, some effects of global warming could still be devastating and irreversible.

For over 150 years, economic and technological growth has proceeded as if ‘there were no tomorrow’, with no discernable concern for the environment, other

96

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

than in some small pockets of the scientific community and among scattered groups of agitated ‘greens’. While some of the reasons, why this should be, have already been addressed elsewhere [3], it is perhaps pertinent to review the process by which human civilisation has reached its current highly technological composition, to give us a platform from which to consider the problem of reversing the growth of greenhouse gases. Arguably five primary science/engineering developments have underpinned the advance of modern civilisation: these are the steam engine, the electric/motor/ generator, the internal combustion engine, the jet engine and the transistor. The contributions of these pioneering activities to the global heating saga will be summarised below.

5.2.1 Growth Based on Steam Following the sterling efforts of Newcomen, Watt and Carnot in establishing viability of the steam engine, it was soon being introduced to a range of applications beyond that of the industrial ‘work horse’, where it started. In both the UK and the USA it was not long before it was adopted to propel ships from ocean going liners to tugs, and of course the steam engine was the key to the creation of railways. In the UK the railway boom [4] began in the 1930s following both the success of the Stockton to Darlington railway, and the significant improvements in engine capability brought about with Robert Stephenson (1803–1859). His Rocket arguably marks one of the key advances in railway technology. It also confirmed Stephenson as one of the premier engineers of his age and as a major engineering contractor for the emerging railway network, both in Britain and abroad. The locomotive was built to compete in the Rainhill Trials in 1829, held by the new Liverpool and Manchester Railway, with the aim of choosing between competing designs. The Rocket, which proved to be substantially superior to its rivals, had as it turned out, established the design template for all subsequent steam locomotives. The basic design principles embodied in the Rocket were to persist right through to the building in Britain, during the 1960s, of the last steam locomotives. Soon railway systems were spreading out into the continent of Europe, into America and beyond, hugely increasing the demand for coal, which by the beginning of the twentieth century was also being used in factories, in steel making, in shipping, in heating, to form coal gas and to generate electrical power. The growth rate in coal use (see Fig. 5.1 and note the logarithmic scale) at this time became positively immense. By the turn of the century, atmospheric carbon dioxide had grown from its long term concentration level of 280–300 ppmv, a not insignificant 7% rise. Humans were beginning to ‘make themselves felt’ in ecological terms, and it had been noted by the science community. By this time Arrhenius had published evidence of the possible sensitivity of the climate to small changes in atmospheric CO2.

5.2 Drifting Towards Ecocide

97

Fig. 5.1 Growth of atmospheric carbon since 1850 (from Hansen [7])

As we discovered in Chap. 1, no heat engine can be more efficient than dictated by the theoretical limit of the Carnot cycle. For the greatest efficiency, steam engines should be operated at the highest steam temperature possible (superheated steam), and release the waste heat at the lowest temperature possible. In practice, a steam engine exhausting the steam to the atmosphere will typically have an efficiency (including the boiler) in the range of 1–10%. At these efficiency levels, 90–99% of the coal is being burnt purely to heat and pollute the environment! It takes considerable ingenuity to improve on this figure but with the addition of a condenser and a multiple expansion system, which is easier in very large engines, efficiency may be greatly improved to 25% or better. An electrical generating station delivering megawatt levels of power, for example, with steam reheat, economizer etc. can achieve up to 50% thermal efficiency. Even so half of the combusted coal is doing no more than generate waste heat and unwanted gaseous products. So, with no way of circumventing this inherent inefficiency of steam engines, particularly in the limited size engines required by transport (railway steam engines were typically 3% efficient [4]) alternatives were sought. For engineers, in the absence of economic imperatives, the motivation, which drives technological progress, is the search for more power, more speed, more efficiency, more reliability, and more control. So it is not surprising that technologists were soon looking elsewhere, for more efficient substitutes to the steam engine, not from concern for the environment, but to improve responsiveness and reduce running costs.

98

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

5.2.2 Electric Power One answer was furnished by electrical science. The early history of electrical engineering is well documented in many textbooks [5], and abundant information on past developments can be found on the internet. In relation to electrical power generation, suffice to say that following early pioneering work, by an extensive list of contributors, Michael Faraday (1791–1867) was the first to demonstrate a practical electric motor, and he did this in 1821. There followed a flurry electrical innovation and development over the next 40–50 years culminating in a direct current (DC) electric power generation system to supply mercury arc lighting in San Francisco. This appeared in about 1880. At about the same time more versatile alternating current (AC) electrical supply systems were being built in Europe, such as the 100 mile long, 30 kV AC transmission line which was erected in Germany in 1891. These early generators were either powered by water turbines in hydrosystems, or more commonly, by coal fired steam turbines. The growing availability of electricity spawned a whole new category of consumers of power. These included suppliers of lighting and heating systems, users of compact and versatile machine tools, and operators of electrical telegraphy and telephony, all this made possible by copiously burning coal, consumption of which continued to rise exponentially. In the transport sector, and in America, the first electrification of a steam railroad occurred in 1895, but it is doubtful if these early electric trains were any more efficient in their use of coal than the steam locomotives which they replaced. Coal power stations at the time were little more than 20–25% efficient, while steam turbines, electrical generators, transformers, electricity transmission lines, and the locomotives themselves all exhibit resistive heating losses. Consequently at the point of traction, between the locomotive’s wheels and the rails, the efficiency of the use of the energy in the original coal was likely to have been little more than 5%. So 95% of the incinerated coal was uselessly polluting and warming the local environment. In essence this was little different, in environmental terms, from burning all of the originally mined coal on open fires! But coal was so inexpensive, that this gross level of inefficiency was not considered to be a hindrance to continued development. Furthermore, the higher than necessary levels of atmospheric pollution, which accrued from lax engineering practices, were of no consequence to most people during the early part of the ninteenth century. As we shall see, from an economic perspective, plundering coal from the ground, and polluting the atmosphere with the waste products resulting from combustion, was largely an ‘off balance sheet’ externality.

5.2.3 The Oil Bonanza The inherent inefficiency of steam engines caused by the fact that the burning fuel only indirectly powers the mechanical parts—via steam—hastened the

5.2 Drifting Towards Ecocide

99

development of internal combustion engines, initially powered by coal gas. An early version appeared in France in 1860. However, these gas fuelled engines were short lived, since they still represented an inefficient use of the original coal. The picture changed completely with the establishment of the first petroleum well, in the summer of 1859, in the Oil Creek region of northern Pennsylvania. This well produced oil at the rate of eight to ten barrels a day, but this was soon to increase hugely with the sinking of wells in Texas. The first working oil powered internal combustion engine is attributed to George B. Brayton (1830–1892), a US mechanical engineer, who patented his two cycle continuous combustion engine in 1874. However the really significant breakthrough came with the German engineer, Karl F. Benz (1844–1929). In 1885 he revealed the first reliable internal-combustion engine—later incorporated into a three wheeled vehicle, which history records as being the first recognisable car. It actually looked more like a powered tricycle than a car [5], but it was the start of a transport revolution, which resulted in a major switch from coal to oil. The evidence can be seen in Fig. 5.1, where the rapid rise in oil consumption from just before 1900 coincides with a slowing in coal consumption. Thermodynamically, power is generated in an internal combustion (i.c.) engine by the exothermic (heat expending) chemical process of combustion, when fuel (mostly petrol) is mixed with air and ignited (usually, but not necessarily, by an electrical spark). The explosive chemical reaction develops a great deal of heat, as the hydrocarbons in the fuel react with oxygen in the air to produce steam and carbon dioxide and small proportions of other chemicals at high temperature. Chemical energy in the fuel is converted to thermal energy. The power in the rapidly forming heat, of course, drives the mechanical parts of the engine to yield useful output. The ratio of mechanical output to latent explosive power in the fuel is generally adopted as a measure of the thermal efficiency of an internal combustion engine. Since combustion chambers are formed predominantly from metals, which can withstand only so much temperature rise in the contained hot gases, the Carnot thermodynamic limit is dictated by the permissible ignition temperature. For an engine with steel lined cylinders for example the optimum efficiency is 37%, but is more likely to average at around 18–20% in mass produced automobile engines. A profligate 80% of the heat of the combustion merely warms the engine block and its surroundings, and together with waste gases, it also disappears down the exhaust pipe. Nevertheless, by comparison with steam locomotives and electric vehicles powered from coal fired power-stations, the improvement in thermal efficiency is still very substantial. Significantly, compact power units based on internal combustion were found to be much easier to realise. Needless to say the rapid evolution of our oil based economy, from 1900 onwards, was inevitable. Notwithstanding the attractions of electric power, electrification of the railways was undoubtedly sluggish. This was mainly due to the emergence of diesel electric locomotives. These prime movers brought to the railways the efficiency improvements inherent in the internal combustion engine. However because of the very high levels of power (typically 2 MW) which they were capable of

100

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

delivering, to haul heavy freight and passenger trains, speed control through gear trains or hydraulic transmission systems, as used in automobiles, was not possible. A gear train would soon be stripped of teeth in transmitting the huge torques involved. The solution was the diesel electric system in which the diesel engine drives an electrical generator. The generator is then coupled electrically to a highly controllable electric motor which drives the wheels. In engineering terms the marginal loss of efficiency is a very acceptable trade-off for the gain in control. Of course diesel engines were used much more widely than in the railways. In addition to industrial applications they became the ‘workhorse’ of the road haulage industry, contributing substantially to the demand for oil as Fig. 5.1 attests, and as a result of the poor thermal efficiency of heat engines much of it just percolates into the atmosphere. When one reviews the engineering history, it is a rather curious fact, that the poor efficiency and wastefulness of fossil fuel based prime movers has generated remarkably little interest or attention throughout most of the twentieth century.

5.2.4 Mass Air Travel Aircraft represent a strictly twentieth century phenomena: a success story for science and technology. The solution to the problem of demonstrating powered flight lay in bringing together early developments in engines with aerodynamic advances on primitive gliders. In 1876 a suitable four stroke internal combustion engine had been demonstrated by Nikolaus Otto (1832–1891), while a few years later Otto Lilienthal (1848–1896) had made considerable inroads into the science of gliding. These developments together with ideas from other groups investigating motive power and aeronautics were synthesised in the first propeller driven powered aircraft built in 1903 by the American brothers Wilbur (1867–1912) and Orville Wright (1871–1948). Over the ensuing twenty five or so years flying machines evolved rapidly from bi-planes to monoplanes, and from simple twocylinder four stroke engines to multi-cylinder radial engines. But it was soon realised that the propeller/piston engine combination was very limiting. Engineers were by 1940 seeking to circumvent the speed and altitude restrictions imposed by this mode of propulsion. The turbo-jet, which revolutionised air travel, can be considered to be an evolutionary development from the Brayton two cycle, continuous combustion engine. It has a thermal-air-jet format consisting of a compressor, a combustion chamber and a turbine. The compressor at the front of the engine, behind the air intake, is shaft driven by the turbine at the rear, and is designed to build up the pressure in the incoming air. The pressurised air then enters the combustion chambers where the oxygen in the air burns continuously with the injected fuel. Thermodynamically, this is more efficient than pulsed power delivery, as employed in the closed chambers of a reciprocating internal combustion engine. The explosively expanding hot gases, in the expansion chambers of the jet engine,

5.2 Drifting Towards Ecocide

101

power the turbine, while the spent products and unused hot air escape through the exhaust nozzle at the rear of the engine at very high velocity. The reaction force generated by the high speed ejection of gas propels the aircraft forward. This high speed, high altitude capability for aircraft, which the jet engine provides, comes at a penalty. It is less fuel efficient that an internal combustion engine of similar power. So its pollution potential in high flying aircraft is substantial, with more than 80% of the fuel carried by the aircraft simply being spewed into the stratosphere as spent gases. There, it does more harm than at ground level. The consequence is that the delivery of air travel to all parts of the globe, for very large numbers of people, has become an activity, which while popular, is immensely harmful to the biosphere. The ecological implications of lifting very large numbers of people into the stratosphere, by burning fossil fuel energy in relatively inefficient jet engines are clear. It would undoubtedly be much less polluting to move them around more slowly at surface level. However, this hardly accords with modern ‘high powered’ lifestyles.

5.2.5 Computer Revolution Modern manifestations of high speed communication, from radio to television to the internet, are all dependent on electronics. Electronic systems are now extremely complex in their functions and capabilities, largely in response to innovative design and development methods and clever use of sophisticated fabrication techniques relying on advances in material science. But at the outset this was not so, when Heinrich Hertz (1857–1894) began to experiment in 1886 on radio waves emitted by spark discharge tubes. As it turned out, his measurements of the nature of radio waves were to provide confirmation of the theories of James Clerk Maxwell, which had been published some 20 years earlier. While Hertz was sceptical of the communications possibilities of radio waves, nevertheless Oliver Lodge (1851–1940) persisted with the idea and demonstrated a primitive transmitter, which he termed a ‘coherer’, and a receiver (‘de-coherer’) in 1894. By this time, of course, due to the endeavours of the Scottish born Alexander Graham Bell (1847–1922) and many others, telegraph systems were already well established. Telephony was first demonstrated by Bell in 1876, and by 1877 there were 1300 commercial telephones in the USA [5]. At the same time that Lodge revealed his coherer, Guglielmo Marconi (1874–1937), by extending and improving the findings of Lodge and others, demonstrated the ability to transmit and receive radio waves over a distance of 1km. From this point on, radio communications and electronics ‘took off’. The fortuitously concurrent discovery of thermionic emission associated with Thomas Edison (1847–1931) and the later invention of the vacuum diode by John Ambrose Fleming (1849–1945) and the triode by Lee de Forest (1873–1961) soon permitted quite sophisticated processing and control of

102

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

signals by means of electronic circuits. However, the era of the vacuum tube was short lived, with the invention of the transistor, which is generally attributed to William Shockley (1910–1989), ‘the father of the transistor’, around 1947. Apart from applications which entail operation at high power levels, semi-conducting devices have now largely superseded the vacuum tube in control and processing circuits, and they have opened up the whole area of logic circuitry. This development has culminated in the evolution of computers and processors, and these in turn have spawned the internet. As a result, since the 1950s the growth, of electrical and electronic devices, components, circuits and systems, has been staggering, as a cursory perusal of the statistical records soon confirms. Thermodynamically, the relevance of this perusal of the unrestrained expansion of consumer electronics is that all electrical systems no matter how small, or large, require some power simply to push electrons through wires, in order to overcome resistance in conductors and circuits. This means electrical power loss and hence inefficiency is unavoidable and the losses must be supplied either from batteries or from the electricity grid. Either way, to supply this loss mechanism, fossil fuels have to be combusted to put energy into the batteries or to meet direct demands on the grid. Unfortunately, electrical goods, whether in the micro or macro category, are not as efficient as they could be—they generate not a little heat—as anyone who has handle a battery charger for a mobile phone will know. Every time a computer buff, or mobile phone user, switches on his/her machine the power station has to supply electrical power either directly or indirectly. If the electrical utility is coal based, the combusted coal drives an inefficient steam turbine which turns a generator with ohmic losses, which energises a transformer with ohmic losses, which stimulates power lines with ohmic losses, which feeds electricity to the end user through a step down transformer with more ohmic losses. So it is estimated that, for the whole chain, no more than 20% of the power extracted from the coal reaches the end user. The rest is used to pollute the environment. For every watt that the computer buff requires, to do useful computational work, when he powers-up his system, 4 W is wasted in simply generating heat. Furthermore for every watt which his machine draws from the mains, it dissipates about 0.1 W in its internal electronics. Consequently, with computer electronics in particular, but also many other electrical applications, growing globally at an exponential rate, more and more fossil fuel energised prime movers are needed to meet the rising demand. This is evident from Fig. 5.1 which shows total fossil fuel usage since 1950 increasing once more at almost 4.4%/year as it did between 1850 and 1900. Most of the ‘ancient sunlight’ stored deep in the earth’s crust where it has been safely sequestered for millions of years is being returned to the surface by mankind merely to pollute the atmosphere: very little of it (\5% at a guess) has been used constructively and intelligently to create significant artefacts or edifices, which are, or have been, of identifiable or lasting benefit to our species and our civilisation. The second law has reaped and continues to reap its inevitable harvest.

5.3 The Evidence of Ecocide

103

5.3 The Evidence of Ecocide When it is related in the highly summarised manner perpetrated above, the story of the technical innovation, which has propelled civilisation since the beginning of the ninteenth century, appears to be one of untrammelled engineering success. But the huge expansion in the demand for fossil fuels, which it has triggered, now presents a dilemma for our species. Thermodynamics, in accordance with Carnot, dictates, as we have seen, that manmade prime-movers are limited in their efficiency, and therefore much of the heat and the waste products, of combusting fossil fuels, end up in the atmosphere. It took almost half a century before this problem was recognised. In fact until, as we have already noted, Guy Callendar a steam engine designer, was sufficiently concerned at the levels of CO2 being exhausted into the air, that in 1938 he submitted a paper to the Royal Meteorological Society in London suggesting that planetary warming was a possible consequence of burgeoning CO2 build up in the biosphere. It is unlikely that he was the only cautionary voice, because by this time, and certainly by 1950, smog and acid rain were beginning to afflict major cities in Europe and the USA in a very serious way.

5.3.1 Urban Smog The dangers of air pollution were recognised by some perceptive humans at least 350 years ago, although admittedly it was experienced only at a very local level. A certain John Evelyn [6] highlighted the problem in a pamphlet with the quaint and old fashioned title ‘‘Fumifugium, Or the Inconvenience of the Aer, and the Smoake of London Dissipated’’. Wood and coal burning fires apparently produced such dense effusions, when the weather was conducive, that they could be detected miles away. He suggested that London reeked like the ‘suburbs of Hell’. Nevertheless the problem was not a trivial one, since it harboured a distinct health risk. Statistical studies, in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, indicated that town dwellers were considerably more likely than country folk, to suffer and die from respiratory problems and lung diseases. Despite the quite striking evidence that coal burning, in the heating of homes and buildings, and later in the powering of the steam revolution, was a serious threat to health, it was to take another hundred years, incredible as that now seems to be, until burgeoning industrial society acknowledged that action was necessary. The trigger was the great London smog. In early December 1952, contemporary reports describe a great mass of cold air expanding northwards from the English Channel and draping itself over London like a chilly blanket. It then simply stayed put. In trying to keep warm, Londoners chose to stoke their home and office fires more vigorously than usual, thus sending plumes of black, sooty smoke into the air, there mixing with clouds of exhaust gases billowing from the chimneys of

104

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

factories and coal-burning power plants. But instead of rising into the atmosphere and dispersing, the gas and smoke laden air stayed close to the ground, trapped by the still cold air blanket hovering above it. Over the next five days, a city already notorious for its smog experienced the worst air pollution it had ever seen. A thick sooty haze hung over the streets, seeping into homes and offices. News reports suggest that public transport virtually ground to a halt, and at night the visibility was so poor that it became impossible to navigate through some parts of the city. And as testament to how bad it really was, it is recorded that indoor concerts had to be cancelled because the audiences once in their seats, presumably those that lived locally and managed to find their way to the venues, could not see the stage! But when the smog eventually lifted its after-effects were even more serious than dislocation. When the registrar general published the mortality figures three weeks later it was soon realised that there had, in fact, been a major disaster. Some 4,000 people died of respiratory ailments in those five days, and it is now clear that a further 8,000 probably succumbed in the months that followed. Not surprisingly, most of the victims were individuals who were especially vulnerable by reason of age or illness. Recent studies based on lung tissue samples preserved from the victims of what became known as the Great Smog of 1952, have provided insights into why the smog proved so deadly, and in particular the role of particulates. For all sane and responsible citizens, clearly a Rubicon had been reached. The Great Smog is considered to be a turning point in environmental history. Although there had been other episodes where air pollution was held responsible for a spike in deaths—notably in the Meuse Valley in Belgium in 1930, and in Donora, Pennsylvania in 1948—the numbers were much lower than those in London. In the aftermath, British officials passed laws banning the emission of black smoke and requiring industry to switch to cleaner-burning fuels. The switch was largely to natural gas, and the contrasting global trends in gas and coal usage, after 1950, are manifest in Fig. 5.1.

5.3.2 Acid Rain It should be noted that smog is not the only evidence of harmful poisoning of the environment triggered by the burning coal and other fossil fuels. When coal is combusted, it creates residues from the breaking down of organic compounds, and these waste products are made up of binary nitrogen and oxygen, among others. These then mix with water vapour in the air which through natural processes eventually forms raindrops. The water vapour is penetrated by the sun’s rays, and if this occurs for a long enough time, it creates compound acids in the water droplets, also known as acid rain. Acid rain has been demonstrated to inflict longterm damage to trees and flowers. It also has a negative effect on plants, such as vegetables, fruits and other consumables. Acid rain can permeate rivers, streams and Earth’s water supply as well, putting harmful components into our water supply systems. When it is inhaled, acidic water vapour is not conducive to good

5.3 The Evidence of Ecocide

105

health. It begets many of the same ill effects which are ascribed to the exposure to smog. It is pertinent to note that respiratory problems not only debilitate people, but are present in animal life, too. This evident contagion of nature which has, and continues to be, accrued from burning ‘ancient sunlight’, will persist until alternate renewable sources of energy are adopted. However, the leviathan which is the ‘global carbon economy’ evinces huge inertia, and shows no sign of slowing down even in 2010.

5.3.3 Chlorofluorocarbons A particularly stark and potent warning of the dangers of polluting the atmosphere with ‘foreign’ substances was provided by the discovery, in the 1970s, of a ‘hole’ in the stratospheric ozone layer over Antarctica. Ozone (O3) is a form of oxygen, which shares three atoms in its molecule, whereas the ubiquitous oxygen (O2) emitted by plants and inhaled by animals, shares two. It was discovered in the 1830s, but the identification of the role played by ozone in the upper atmosphere did not occur until the 1920s and is attributed to Gordon Dobson (1889–1976) and F.A. Lindeman (1886–1957). In the early days of research into ozone, the gas was treated as a scientific oddity, but by 1948 its presence in the atmosphere needed to be better understood and an International Ozone Commission was set up to do this [7]. A substantially funded and sustained effort to measure atmospheric ozone began in 1957—the International Geophysical Year. Measurements by instruments attached to helium balloons, or carried in high flying aircraft, or in the case of recent monitoring, built into satellites, have been executed. Generally, these have relied on spectroscopic techniques employing equipment designed to detect solar photons as they are modified by absorption, emission and scattering by gases in the atmosphere. Instruments are mostly tuned to be maximally sensitive to infrared signals since the gases of interest exhibit their greatest influence in this frequency range. By the 1970s, the ozone concentration in the stratosphere, over the poles, in particular, and over other areas of the earth, had been well tabulated, and concentration levels were generally quite stable year on year. But from 1975 onwards scientists began to be rather concerned by apparent thinning of the ozone over Antarctica, and the emergence of a distinct ‘hole’ by 1995. By 2000 the ‘hole’ had become a crater extending over an area of 28 million km2—roughly the area of Mexico! That the phenomenon was not due to instrument error but was associated with ozone eating chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was eventually established in 1974 by Paul Crutzen, F.S. Rowland and M. Molina, recipients of a Noble prize in chemistry for their efforts. Chlorofluorocarbons, invented by industrial chemists in 1928, are organic compounds that contain carbon, chlorine, and fluorine. They are produced as a volatile derivative of methane and ethane. A profuse subclass is the hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which obviously also contain hydrogen.

106

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

Fig. 5.2 Incremental climatic forcing due to a range of greenhouse gases

These products are quite often referred to by their trade name Freon, DuPont being by far the most prolific manufacturer. The most common representative is dichlorodifluoromethane (R-12 or Freon-12). Acceptance by industry and users of these products was mainly attributable to the fact that they were non-reactive and stable, and therefore apparently very safe. As is quite well known now, CFCs were produced in large amounts for use as refrigerants, propellants (in aerosol applications), and solvents. In the lower atmosphere, CFCs act as powerful greenhouse gases as they percolate up through the atmosphere to the stratosphere. A CFC molecule released at ground level takes, on average, about five years to reach the edge of the biosphere. It is clear from Fig. 5.2 when CFC production was at its highest, between 1970 and 1990, that this gas contributed to the rate of increase of greenhouse gas ‘forcing’ by an amount which was almost 50% of the level attributed to CO2. Climatologists talk about a process of ‘radiative forcing’ (see Chap. 12) when quantifying the influence of atmospheric carbon on natural global warming [7]. The earth is continually warmed by radiation from the sun. In fact, if you were to try to gather this solar heat over a square metre of the earth’s surface in daytime (obviously you would collect much more at the equator than at the poles) you would garner on average about enough heat to boil a three litre kettle of water. The sun produces, as one might anticipate, high energy radiation, which impinges on the earth’s atmosphere in the form of photons at light and higher frequencies. Some of these are scattered back out to space while the rest penetrate to the surface of the planet, with little absorption by the CO2, and other greenhouse gases. On the other hand, as we have seen, low energy radiation from the ‘hot’ earth is at a much lower frequency and can be absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2008, man-made CO2 was producing ‘forcing’ (greenhouse warming) equivalent to 0.7% of the natural level; about enough solar power over a square metre of the earth’s surface to boil a table-spoon full of water. What this means is that a small fraction of radiation from the planet, which would normally propagate back out into space, is not permitted to do so by the enhanced CO2 ‘blanket’, and adds 0.7% to atmospheric and surface warming, as dictated by the laws of thermodynamics.

5.3 The Evidence of Ecocide

107

CFCs are long-lived in the lower atmosphere because the very stability, which was deemed to be an advantage for human use, prevents it breaking down and losing its potency as a greenhouse gas. However, when it reaches the stratosphere by natural convection processes, it becomes exposed to intense ultraviolet radiations which cause the CFC molecules to fracture and release chlorine atoms. Chlorine is very reactive and at temperatures below -43°C is particularly destructive to ozone. These conditions occur in the stratosphere over Antarctica and hence the alarming ‘ozone hole’ appeared here first. Sky blue ozone is this colour to the human eye because ozone molecules scatter electromagnetic waves at the blue end of the electromagnetic spectrum, all other light frequencies passing through the atmosphere undisturbed. While ozone does no more than scatter electromagnetic waves in the ‘blue’ region of the frequency spectrum, at slightly higher frequencies, namely in the ultra-violet range, ozone actually blocks the passage of electromagnetic waves—a ‘service’ which is critical to life on the surface of the earth. In fact a ‘healthy’ ozone layer protects us from 95% of the UV which reaches the earth. Consequently, the ‘hole’ which began to appear over Antarctica in the 1970s was beginning to cause alarm by the 1980s. Nevertheless, it took more than a decade from the appearance of Crutzen’s 1974 paper linking ozone depletion to CFCs, before urgent calls for CFCs to be banned, began to be taken seriously. Not surprisingly, the reason for the delay was denial of the science by vested interests supported by the largely right wing media in the industrialised West. DuPont, the company responsible for the bulk of CFC manufacture, in association with other producers, launched a virulent publicity campaign debunking the science and discrediting the scientists in order to distance their products from the ozone problem. The pattern is not unlike what is happening today with climate science and global warming. Fortunately however, on the basis of computer based reconstructions of the growing ozone hole appearing regularly on television and of nascent indications of rising rates of skin cancer, public pressure began to overpower, the industrially inspired, disinterest and disengagement evinced by politicians and governments, to such an extent that twenty nations met in Vienna in 1985 and signed the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer [8]. Initially it was thought to be no more than ‘a toothless expression of hopes’ [9], rather like the agreements emanating from Kyoto (2004) and Copenhagen (2009) on greenhouse gases. But it was followed up in 1987 by the ‘Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer’, which obliged governments around the world to phase out the use of CFCs. It came into force on the 1st January 1989, and interestingly it employs direct regulation to enforce the phase out of harmful gases, with specific timetables set for each chemical. Demonstrably, this protocol has been very effective. Looking back from 2010, the instrumental measurements indicate clearly that ozone depletion peaked in about 1990. This is confirmed by Fig. 5.2 which indicates that CFC concentration in the atmosphere fell markedly in 1990 as a result of the emissions restrictions enforced by the protocol, although the restoration of the ozone layer will not be complete until the end of the twenty first

108

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

century. This initial success was highlighted in a 2007 report of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency in the following way [8]: The 1987 Montreal Protocol––restricting the use of ozone-depleting substances––has helped to both reduce global warming and protect the ozone layer. Without this protocol the amount of heat trapped due to ozone-depleting substances would be double that of today. The benefits to the climate, achieved by the Montreal Protocol alone, at present greatly exceed the initial target of the Kyoto Protocol.

Sadly, this genuine record of achievement is not matched by the Kyoto Protocol [8], which was designed to procure reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of about 2 Gigatons/year of carbon dioxide and equivalent gases (Gt CO2 eq/year) by 2012. This compares very unfavourably with the 18–25 Gt CO2 eq/year, which will potentially be achieved by the Montreal Protocol. On current trends, even the risible Kyoto target will not be reached, and the shambolic Copenhagen treaty will have no significant effect on emission targets. As Tickell [8] expresses it: Th[e] relatively easy and rapid success of the Montreal Protocol in tackling greenhouse gas emissions stands in stark contrast to the slow, meagre and expensive gains achieved under the Kyoto Protocol.

It seems that until the mass of the population, in countries around the globe, becomes seriously concerned and noticeably agitated about global warming, as they did about the ozone hole, so making the issue politically important, governments will not give the problem the attention and consideration it deserves. Had scientists been predicting that human activities were inducing the onset of global freezing leading to a new ice age the response, one suspects, might have been very different. ‘Global warming’, does not seem threatening. It instils the illusion of a comfortable, warm future, which is a rather attractive notion for humans—being an essentially tropical species which in geological terms has quite recently emerged from Africa.

5.3.4 Heat Waves In the summer of 2007 Europe, and particularly Central-Eastern regions, suffered a prolonged and record breaking heat wave. In Hungary the summer was exceptional with the heat wave experienced there outstripping all previously events, becoming the longest and hottest on record. As it happens, European funding of research into the relationship between temperature and mortality, which was being pursued at the University of Birmingham in conjunction with institutions in Hungary, has led to the accumulation of copious statistical data for the period [10]. Temperature data for five summers, including 2007, are presented in Table 5.1. The recorded data is essentially for Budapest where temperature measurements were performed at a fixed site in the outskirts of the city. The first two rows in Table 5.1 show measured mean and maximum temperatures for Budapest taken over the period 1st June to 31st August for each of the

5.3 The Evidence of Ecocide

109

Table 5.1 Summer temperature and related data in Budapest 2003–2007 2003 2004 2005

2006

2007

Summer mean temperature (°C) Summer maximum temperature (°C) Number of days with mean temperature Number of days with mean temperature Number of days with mean temperature Number of days with mean temperature Number of heat waves Number of days of heat waves

21.5 37 51 30 11 0 5 30

23.3 41 46 29 12 5 3 19

less than 25°C greater than 25°C greater than 27°C greater than 30°C

Table 5.2 Excess mortality in central Hungary during 2007 June 19–23 second level alert 5 days Number of deaths Number of excess deaths Mean daily number of excess deaths Daily excess mortality rate (%)

400 -23 -4.5 -5.3

23.6 39 44 35 13 0 2 11

20.8 34 82 8 2 0 1 4

heat waves July 15–24 third level alert 10 days 1123 278 27.8 32.9

20.5 35 78 9 5 0 1 5

August 23–26 Heat warning 4 days 341 3 0.75 0.9

years tabulated. It is clear that 2007 was only slightly worse than 2003 on this criterion. However when numbers of days, when the temperature exceeded the 25°C, 27°C and 30°C levels, are examined, which tends to highlight the depth and severity of the heat waves, the 2007 event was clearly more severe than 2003 with five days when the temperature exceeded 30°C. There were three heat waves (daily mean temperature exceeding 25°C on at least three consecutive days) in the summer of 2007. The first, which was accorded a 2nd level alert, occupied five days (19–23 June) with a daily maximum of 35°C and a 5 day mean of 25.9°C. The second was classed as a 3rd level alarm and lasted ten days from 15 to 24 July during which daily maximum temperatures exceeded 40°C with the highest reading being 41°C on 21 July—a record for Budapest. During the 4-day long heat wave in August, which attracted a ‘heat warning’, the daily maximum temperature was 35°C while the mean over the four days was 27°C. These statistics undeniably represent conditions, which because of their longevity are very oppressive for humans to tolerate, and they took there toll. Table 5.2 records, on the first line, the total number of deaths in central Hungary during the period of the three heat waves in 2007, which are defined and delineated above. Taking the number of deaths, for a typical summer for which the temperature never rises above 25°C, as the norm (for example during 19–23 June, 423 deaths would be expected), line two of the table records excess deaths relative to the norm. Line three gives the daily figure, which is presented as a percentage in line 4. Although local extreme events are notoriously difficult to ascribe to climate

110

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

change, for many Hungarians who lived through this period it must have crossed their minds that global warming had touched them, and they could hardly help to be worried that this event was not indicative of a new and unpleasant climate pattern.

5.4 Nature in Retreat 5.4.1 Emergence of Agri-business The bonanza for humans of easy access to plentiful supplies of cheap energy created by ‘ancient sunshine’ has resulted in unimagined prosperity for many humans, although still a small percentage of the species as a whole, which numbers almost seven billion in 2010. It has occurred over the past century and a half—but this interlude may prove to have been a lucky aberration, thanks in large part to the massive boost in food and energy that our civilisation derived from fossil fuels. This same fossil energy boost, of course, while allowing our species to proliferate massively in numbers, and construct wonderful complex societies in little more than a historical instant—could in the longer term prove our undoing [11]1

Fossil fuels, more than any other exploitable planetary bounty, have procured extraordinary advancement for Homo sapiens. While all other species have to live within the constraints of, and are regulated in numbers by, their ecosystems, through variable food availability and predation, Homo sapiens has largely escaped from this ecological confinement. As Lovelock [2] observes: We have severed nearly all the natural physical constraints on the growth of our species: we can live anywhere from the Arctic to the Tropics and, while they last, our water supplies are piped to us: our only significant predator now is the occasional microorganism that briefly mounts a pandemic. If we are to continue as a civilization that successfully avoids natural catastrophes, we have to make our own constraints on growth, and make them strong, and make then now.

Our food supply is no longer constrained by what we can grow naturally or what we can acquire by foraging and hunting. We have discovered how to convert fossil fuels to food and to produce and deliver it to anywhere in the world by means of effective and successful, but hugely fuel dependent and planet ravishing,

1 If you were able to read only one book about the implications of global warming this would have to be it. It is comprehensively researched, beautifully constructed and well written, and it spells out clearly and graphically the consequences of warming for ecosystems, biodiversity, climate and local weather patterns around the world, at each one degree rise in temperature above that which prevailed before the industrial revolution. Needless to say, the implications for human civilisation are shown to be perilously hard and difficult, if the average global temperature should creep to 2°C or more, beyond the pre-industrial benchmark.

5.4 Nature in Retreat

111

Fig. 5.3 Growth in fertilizer use in the world as a whole, and in the developing world since 1950 (Worldwatch Institute 1999)

agri-businesses. But emerging evidence indicates that this success for humanity is reaching its limits. The trend in agricultural expansion is shown in Fig. 5.3 where fertilizer consumption per head of population is plotted over the period 1950–2000, for the world as a whole and for the developing world. Clearly up until 1990 the fertilizer consumption in kg/person, and hence farming output per person, has advanced ahead of population growth. Thereafter, rather worryingly, it slumps. This is because, while population continues to expand rapidly, land for agriculture in the industrialised world peaks, as the towns and cities housing burgeoning human populations, encroach into the countryside. Crop yield and fertilizer requirements plateau resulting in the observed levelling off in the per person statistics—although not yet, interestingly, in the developing world, where land for new agricultural enterprises still exists. In energy terms these modern agricultural practices are by no means efficient. According to one estimate [11, 12], agri-business in the United States uses at least ten units of fossil fuel energy to produce one unit of food energy! Further, as we have seen, most of this fossil fuel energy, by being combusted in inefficient engines, ends up as atmospheric pollution. Agribusinesses also cause indirect pollution by the clearing of climax ecosystems to provide land for mono-culture crop systems, which are much less effective environmental controllers. Climax ecosystems such as rain forests provide essential oxygen, cooling functions, pollution absorbing functions, reliable rain patterns and clean water etc. These are the ‘externalities’ which are invariably zero-costed by economists in formulating business plans and in developing national economies.

112

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

Fig. 5.4 The fundamental elements of the carbon cycle

5.4.2 Artificial Food Chain The intrusion of the industrialised world into the biosphere is represented in a familiar schematic depicting the well established carbon cycle (Fig. 5.4) and the food chain, in trophic form in Fig. 5.5, where the idealised trophic diagram previously shown in Fig. 4.10, has been modified by the presence of a second energy flow sphere representing human activity. While the natural trophic diagram represents energy, originating in the sun, flowing to the carnivores, including man, through the agency of food, the artificial diagram also incorporates energy from ancient sunshine flowing through the agency of fossil fuels—represented by a sun motif with an embedded dinosaur. This artificial sphere is shown abutted onto the sphere representing the natural world. The relative sizes of these spheres and the degree to which they are in contact is open to conjecture and debate. The criterion for judging these relativities has to be related in some way to the impact of human activities on the global environment. It is now largely unquestioned that modern humans are modifying the planetary atmosphere sufficiently strongly to be upsetting the ecological balance. As Fig. 5.4 suggests, the natural flux of carbon in the atmosphere, in the soil, in sea and ocean surface layers and in flora and fauna is essentially in balance, and has been for millenia. Needless to say, the additional contribution to the flux, by 6.7 billion people combined with their domestic/farm animals and their fossil fuel hungry economies, is very significant indeed. During the

5.4 Nature in Retreat

113

Fig. 5.5 Trophic diagram representing the natural ecosystem (upper half) in harness with modern man’s artificial ecosystem (lower half). The upper half of the diagram is largely a replica of Fig. 4.4.1, while the lower half represents energy flow, including fossil fuel energy, represented by the Sun with an embedded dinosaur

1990s the statistical data suggests that human activities generated 13.5 Gt/year of greenhouse gases, with 6.5 Gt/year coming from fossil fuel combustion. Consequently, in Fig. 5.5, the trophic-spheres have been chosen to be depicted as essentially equal in radius. It is presumed that in order to have the measurable degree of influence on the biosphere, which the artificial ecosystem created by humans displays, it cannot be too different in magnitude (whatever that means) to the Earth’s ancient and natural ecosystem. The volume of the artificial sphere could perhaps have been chosen to exceed that of the natural sphere, given pronouncements by Lovelock [2] and others that we need two additional planets to accommodate current economic activities. The degree of contact between the two systems is also debatable. Dividing a single trophic sphere into natural and artificial hemispheres would suggest that a level of interaction and coupling between the two worlds exists, which is simply not plausible. On the other hand, they certainly cannot be uncoupled (two independent spheres) as the economists obviously would prefer. The choice shown is essentially just an illustrative compromise, but hopefully it is also helpful and thought provoking. The portion of the trophic diagram (Fig. 5.5) which is representative of man’s artificial ecosystem, exhibits an additional shell (9) located just inside the outer O2 + CO2 shell. This shell represents industrial development. Here ‘ancient sunshine’ is consumed and digested, and in biospheric terms, this shell spews out unprecedented levels of CO2 and detritus—represented by the heavy arrow (marked-detritus) directed to the right from the centre of the artificial sphere. This thermodynamically produced waste inevitably finds its way into the natural world (right portion of Fig. 5.5) as is indicated on the diagram.

114

5 Mankind’s Artificial Eco-system

Fig. 5.6 Qualitative comparison of entropy production in climax and artificial ecosystems (adapted from Ref. [13])

In the artificial ecosystem, the trophic region which was occupied by the autotrophs in the natural world, has been taken over by crop farming (shell 6), while the heterotrophic shell (7) occupied by the herbivores, in Fig. 4.10, now represents animal husbandry. Within these shells, an inner spherical region (8) contains the carnivores, now represented wholly by mankind, which doesn’t just eat agricultural products, of course, but burns copious volumes of fossil fuel, creating large amounts of greenhouse gases and detritus for the natural world to absorb. This activity is represented by the aircraft and car symbols. Waste transmission between the artificial and natural systems is portrayed by the large rightwards directed heavy arrow as indicated earlier, while the large green (light shading) and blue (dark shading) coupling arrows on the right and left of the schematic depict the ‘trading’ of O2, clean H2O, and CO2 (‘externalities’ in economic terms) between the two systems. The four radially directed ‘triple-line’ arrows in each half of the diagram denotes heat loss in accordance with the first law. Quite clearly, man’s artificial ecosystem is inextricably linked to the natural biosphere, which being ‘finite’ places an unavoidable and impenetrable barrier to continuing economic development, particularly when it is considered in tandem with the dilemma presented by unsustainable population levels, a problem which is growing inexorably. It is perhaps relevant to ask, in relation to the artificial ecosystem, which today revolves around fossil fuel boosted agri-business, why it is unsustainable. Part of the answer is to be found in Fig. 5.6, where the entropy production of an artificial ecosystem is compared qualitatively with that of a natural, highly bio-diverse, climax ecosystem [13]. For the reference climax system in Fig. 5.6, it is presumed

5.4 Nature in Retreat

115

that the diversity of living organisms within it maximise the rate of entropy production relative to what would have occurred in the same area of the planet in the absence of life. Given our earlier discussion in Chap. 4, it can therefore be assumed that the maximum rate of entropy production by the climax ecosystem must be the optimum sustainable rate attainable for the solar flux on the area of the planet in question. Consequently, when the rate developed by an artificial ecosystem in the same corner of the planet becomes greater than the climax system, it has to be presumed that it is not sustainable in the long run. Prior to the industrial revolution and agri-business, agriculture with its limited crop range created a diminished ecosystem relative to the natural ecosystem which it replaced. In fact, the mono-culture crop stands on farmed land are not too different in character to an early successional stage in a climax ecosystem. Not surprisingly, therefore the entropy production of ‘artificial’ agriculture before 1,800 is never as high as is achieved by the climax system (Fig. 5.6). In addition, agriculture promotes soil erosion which is increasing and accelerating. This implies that farming practices may lead to a net loss of soil organic matter, because the input of new organic matter by natural recycling is reduced and because soil temperature is increased—it is cool within pristine forests. So, the opening of the entropy gap in favour of agriculture after 1850 is an obvious indicator of practices which deviate substantially from the sustainable level.

References 1. Lean JL (2010) Cycles and trends in solar radiance and climate. Climate change, 1 Issue 1. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews, London 2. Lovelock J (2006) The revenge of Gaia. Penguin Books, London 3. Mooney C, Kirshenbaum S (2009) Unscientific America. Basic Books, New York 4. Gregory MS (1971) History and development of Engineering. Longman Group, London 5. Kirkby RS, Withington S, Darling AR, Kilgour FG (1956) Engineering in history. McGrawHill, London 6. Flannery T (2005) The weather makers. Penguin Books, London 7. Hansen JE, Sato M (2001) Trends of measured climate forcing Agents. Proc Natl Acad Sci, USA, 98(26):14778–14783 8. Tickell O (2008) Kyoto2: How to manage the global greenhouse. Zen Books, London 9. Weart SR (2003) The discovery of global warming: new histories of Science Technology and Medicine. Harvard University Press, Massachusetts 10. Dincer I et al (2010) Global warming: engineering solutions. Springer, London 11. Lynas M (2007) Six degrees. Harper Perennial, London 12. Porritt J (2008) Capitalism: as if the world matters. Earthscan, London 13. Ruth M (1993) Integrating economics, ecology and thermodynamics. Kluwer, London

Chapter 6

Eco-Blind Civilisation A very Faustian choice is upon us: whether to accept our corrosive and risky behaviour as the unavoidable price of population and economic growth, or to take stock of ourselves and search for a new environmental ethic E.O. Wilson Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist K. Boulding

6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy Our primary endeavour in the preceding chapter was to identify, and enunciate from a purely engineering angle, the societal stimuli for the many technological advances, which have appeared since 1850, aimed at taking advantage of the energy bounty contained in fossil fuels. These advances have, in turn, provided much of the impetus for the emergence of the industrially propelled economies of the globe. At the same time an attempt has been made to emphasise that, from a thermodynamic perspective, the technology which transpired was inexcusably inefficient and wasteful, because minimising thermal losses was never a serious issue for engineers, in a world believed to possess limitless supplies of fossil fuels. Consequently, during the past 150 years of striving towards current levels of economic development, the growth in atmospheric carbon levels due to human activities has been much higher than it might otherwise have been the case, with wise scientifically informed leadership. In addition, scientists and engineers were motivated much more by the demands of the societies to which they belonged, as they strived for economic growth. They sought quick, effective and profitable solutions to these demands and were largely untroubled by inefficiency and energy wasteful practices, particularly when society in general was disinclined to place much in the way of price obstacles on the burgeoning use of fossil fuels. While this was probably excusable during the early part of the last century when the harm caused to the environment by combusting fossil fuels was largely unknown, it is certainly not true of the last 20–30 years. Allowing the market to determine price of fossil fuels in recent years has been extremely negligent given that the process of counteracting and reversing global warming, by engineering sustainable energy supplies, will place a considerable financial burden on global economies. Through sensible global rationing and taxing of fossil fuels, we should by now have accumulated a sizeable contingency fund to finance the replacement of fossil fuels. But Murphy-like, mankind has dithered, and as it becomes increasingly aware of the urgent need to usher in the

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_6, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

117

118

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

age of renewables, it will find that it is nowhere near ready to do so. Inexcusably, it could be getting too late to do so. One is forced to ask, given that thermodynamics has been around long enough, as we have seen, and that it has been understood well enough for nearly 150 years, why the indiscriminate burning of fossil fuels has never been questioned? Why is it proving so difficult, to get mankind to break the potentially deadly habit of conspicuous consumption? Why the Murphy-like procrastination? It is probably fair to say that there is more than one answer to these questions. Nevertheless, a major contribution must surely emanate from the widespread belief, which the financial community has planted and strongly nurtured in the populace at large, that the economy can be decoupled from nature. This is despite the fact that attempts to link economics to thermodynamics, which suggest otherwise, were being mooted as long ago as 1940 [1]. The decoupling concept is of course utterly false as we shall see in ensuing sections.

6.1.1 Disreputable Beginnings To the entrepreneurial and industrial world of the nineteenth century, the cautioning voices of Tyndall, Arrhenius and Callendar on the dangers of burning coal were totally unheard or unacknowledged. Plus ça change, plus c’est la meme chose—despite major technology advances the voice of reputable science is still a whisper even today! By the time that William Kelvin was helping to establish the science of thermodynamics, a nascent free market was already developing in the financial world, which at that time largely comprised Europe and North America. History suggests that healthy vibrant societies are created when the prevailing economic conditions are favourable, which implies the existence of production facilities, methods of exchange and distribution, consumer outlets for goods and services. Obviously, such societies seek to control and direct these haphazardly evolving economic activities. This became particularly true during the industrial revolution when engineering, as we have seen, placed great physical power in the hands of individuals and companies, and it was considered essential to harness, for the benefit and fulfilment of the majority of citizens, this power which could imprint on the face of the planet huge infrastructure alterations in a very short space of time. Man could literally move mountains. Towards the end of the eighteenth century, certainly in the UK, but also in parts of Europe and the USA, the rate of industrialisation, with its concomitant migration of rural workers to the new towns, grew rapidly. At this time there existed a range of regulations and legal restrictions to trade and industrial development—largely emanating from the Middle Ages. In Britain, these restrictions began to be irksome to those seeking progress. In contrast the free cities of Europe were becoming prosperous. This difference in outcome was surmised to be due not only to the political freedom which they enjoyed, but to their relative lack of economic restrictions. Inevitably,

6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy

119

the civilised world began expressing a degree of restlessness for political and economic emancipation, enthused and encouraged by growing notions of individual liberty. The seminal case for the free market is generally considered to be provided in the ‘Wealth of Nations’, by Adam Smith in 1776. In it he set down the principles which were to provide the philosophical ground rules for the economic system of the nineteenth century. Individual liberty was considered to be of paramount value, and a person pursuing his own interests was deemed to be improving the welfare of all. This ‘trickle down’ theory is viewed much less favourably today given the relentlessly growing discrepancy between the life chances of the ‘rich’ and the ‘poor’. It is perhaps pertinent to note that Smith was actually not too complimentary, even at that time, of the financiers and bankers charged with ‘oiling the market’s wheels’. He has presciently observed that their interests are: always in some respect different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from that order (i.e. the dealers) ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.

Why was he motivated to make such a comment? The answer is provided by the early history of economics which directs a depressingly unflattering spot light on some of the worst aspects of human nature. It is a largely unattractive story [2] of cupidity, avarice, slyness, cunning and theft, unremittingly propelled forward (if that is the correct word) by characters of dubious rectitude—gamblers, shysters, con-merchants—motivated by greed and desire to make ‘financial killings’. Liberty has its downside! At that time, these developments were harmless in planetary terms because little energy, other than the meagre levels that resided in muscle, water, wood and wind, was yet being expended to power nascent industries. But what was not so harmless was the fact that these early developments established an ethos for economic expansion which was irredeemably exploitative and singularly dismissive of ecological ramifications.

6.1.2 Gambling with Economics A good example of a financial ‘wheeler-dealer’, and part of that early history, was John Law (1671–1729), who was influential in the development of the stock market [2]. Despite this he was much less well known than his fellow Scotsman, born just after Law’s death, namely the quintessential engineer James Watt (1736–1819), whose contribution to the industrial revolution was unquestionably significant. Law was apparently an inveterate gambler, and seemingly motivated by greed. The historical record suggests that: ‘‘He spent some time in Venice trading by day, gambling

120

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

by night’’ [2]. How did he know the difference? In the ironically entitled book [3] ‘John Law: The History of an Honest Adventurer’, he is quoted as observing, in relation to his money making exploits: ‘‘I have discovered the secret of the philosopher’s stone—it is to make gold out of paper’’. Today his disciples are trying to make money out of ‘binary digits’ by gambling in cyberspace [4]. Economics and the formulation of economic science, if it can be called a science, have largely been advanced by men of Law’s ilk [2], and the financial world is, as a result, neither democratic, nor socialist. Neither is it particularly respectful of the wellbeing of human society, nor of the ecological health of the planet. As the following quotation from the chief economist of a Boston company makes clear the financial world remains, even today, addicted to doubtful practices. He claims he was employed to ensure that the money lent to countries such as Ecuador and Panama by the IMF and World Bank would be spent on goods supplied by US corporations—to consolidate American influence in the region. He is quoted as saying [2]: This empire, unlike any other in the history of the world, has been built primarily through economic manipulation, through cheating, through fraud, through seducing people into our way of life, through the economic hit men ….my real job…..was loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay…. So we make this big loan, most of it comes back to the United States, the country is left with debt plus lots of interest, and they basically become our servants, our slaves. It’s an empire. There’s no two ways about it. It’s a huge empire.

It is difficult in reading financial history not to be struck by the haphazard and incoherent development of the topic. The tale is littered by ups and downs, bubbles and busts, manias and panics, shocks and crashes [5]. Part of the problem is that economists have a vested interest in their theories; a smart economic ‘insight’ could make a theorist rich, thus assuaging his/her greed impulse which always seems to attach to those involved in the financial world. This situation whereby the scholar has a vested interest in the advancement of his topic is unique to economic science. It is essentially imperceptible in other sciences, apart perhaps for the establishment of a ‘reputation’. The historical development of the natural sciences is certainly not a ‘roller-coaster’ ride as with economics. Progress might be faltering and fitful, but it is always in the direction of advancing and expanding human knowledge. In the words of the historian Niall Ferguson [2], it is quite clear that: Even today, despite the unprecedented sophistication of our institutions and instruments, Planet Finance remains as vulnerable as ever to crises. It seems that for all our ingenuity we are doomed to be ‘fooled by randomness’ [6] and surprised by the ‘black swans’ [7].

The ‘black swans’, in this context, are the unavoidable random events that feature in everyone’s life. The conclusion seems to be that little advance in the practice of economics has occurred in 150 years. So it is hardly surprising that economic science has failed to heed the warnings of the physical sciences that a rampant, uncontrolled, fossil fuel combusting, consumer orientated, capitalist system is inimical to the biosphere and Earth. The 2008 credit crunch placed in sharp relief the capacity of a few greedy, avaricious, ill educated and power hungry men (mainly) to cause mayhem to the

6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy

121

global economy, when they were allowed by the ‘light regulatory touch’ of democratic governments, to apply their seemingly ingrained gambling instincts to financial transactions involving tranches of other people’s money, which dwarfed the GDP’s of most nations. The fundamental issue with the 2007–2008 crisis in the financial sector, commonly referred to as the ‘credit crunch’, was that the neo-liberal, weakly regulated, financial system that had been created was a giant Ponzi-style pyramid scheme that is now at, or approaching, its mathematical limits. It functions something like this. Banks create ‘money’ by providing loans which become debt entries in ledgers (these days computers). Quite simply, ‘money’ is issued as debt at interest. The system involves the creation by governments of only about 10% of the total money supply in the form of non-interest bearing notes and coins, raised against government bonds held by the banks, while the remaining 90%, over which they have little control, is created by the commercial banking system in the form of interest bearing debt. At the instant when this debt is credited to each and every borrower, and there are so many the accumulated debt is huge, there is at that point no ‘real money’ being created in the ‘real economy’ by which the interest on the debt might be effectively and fully repaid. If all of the debts were immediately called in, the economic system would collapse, because there is insufficient real money to cover them. The solution to this dilemma is of course unstoppable economic growth, a run-away process, which requires, period by period, the creation of yet more credit, from which increasing arrears of interest can be paid. In other words, the issue of ‘bank money’ through debt at interest, with its potential for infinite growth because of the exponential rate of interest, which has, in turn, to be serviced by the products of a finite real economy, carries within it the structural inevitability of ‘meltdown’. It is now estimated that the ‘value’ of this electronic debt mountain is many multiples of the global GDP upon which it makes its calls: hence the increasingly futile search for (real) value leading to speculative bubbles, including, in recent times, dotcom, junk bonds, subprime vehicles, oil (the latter a peaking asset) and now the credit crunch. The bonds are never paid off: the national debt is just payment of interest only—the banks hold the principal in perpetuity—so most taxation is raised to service government debt held in private hands. The mathematical limit (now being approached) is reached when revenues from productive economic activity are no longer able even to service the debt interest. That is when the house of straw collapses, and recent evidence suggests that global economies are nearing this point. Needless to say, this in turn wrecks the productive economy by destroying the real assets upon which it is based. All of this is well understood by everyone, except it seems classical economists, who believe—against all the available evidence and logic—in infinite growth! As has been noted by Underwood and King [8] in 1989, contemporary economics is ‘‘fundamentally neoclassical in that it rests on the possibility of virtually unlimited, technologically induced, resourceaugmenting substitution’’. In other words, technological wizardry will always compensate for resource depletion. The modern economic wisdom is, therefore, that the activities of the financial world of bankers, and manipulators of money,

122

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

can be decoupled from the real world. They are persuaded that the global economic system can be operated as a machine isolated from the natural world. They assume that the machine’s behaviour: is linear, predictable and reversible, so it can be managed by a planet-wide class of technocrats—including central bankers and government officials—trained in the arcane science of economics. [9]

It was this sector which did not see the 2008 crunch coming. How could they, isolated within their illusory casino, fervently attempting to make themselves rich by urging and driving the growth of unstable piles of digital money? As a result of their Murphy-like excesses the profession of banking, has in a quite literal sense, become de-moralised. In the leveraged boom years, self-interest and grossly inflated bonuses ruled. Whether the structure of regulation is tri-partite (as was the case in the UK during the ‘crunch’ years) or whether all roads should lead to the Bank of England as UK opposition politicians suggest, things really will not change unless participants rediscover a moral commitment to do the right thing. As Barry Schwartz [10] has pithily, and accurately observed: ‘‘Rules make war on moral skill. Incentives make war on moral will’’. Attempts by governments to achieve an equitable balance between freeing-up markets and avoiding monetary excesses, through the application of light regulation, have been hugely misjudged. Of course it would be wrong to heap all opprobrium for the recent crash on the bankers. We are all, in the industrialised West at least, to blame to some degree insofar as we democratically vote for and acquiesce in the capitalist system that has been constructed in our name. In so doing, we have sanctioned the growth of companies and corporations which have seized far too much power and have unwarrantedly acquired outrageous wealth; we have tolerated a largely corrupt media in thrall through advertising revenue to the unscrupulous corporations; we have permitted a generation of economists to preach to us the fiction of endless growth on a finite planet. In short, the root cause of our escalating difficulties has been clearly spelt out in this cogent paragraph written by David Korten [11]: The problem is this: a predatory global financial system, driven by the single imperative of making ever more money for those who already have lots of it, is rapidly depleting the real capital—the human, social, natural and even manufactured capital—upon which our well being depends. Pathology enters the economic system when money, once convenient as a means of facilitating commerce, comes to define the life purpose of individuals and society. The truly troubling part is that so many of us have become willing accomplices to what is best described as a war of money against life. It starts, in part, from our failure to recognize that money is not wealth. In our confusion, we concentrate on the money to the neglect of those things that actually sustain a good life.

6.1.3 NET Applied to Economics The classical model for describing economic activities emphasises material cycling, or circular processes of production and consumption, which are presumed to be endless. When this model of economic activity is viewed from a

6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy

123

thermodynamic perspective, it is clear that it is misguided, if not erroneous. This theory of continuous circular flow amounts to the assumption of inexhaustible resources and bottomless sinks, which is clearly in violation of the second law. Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen [12], who is a major player in the new field of evolutionary economics, has expressed profound disagreement with the notion that circular flows in economics accord with reality. He is quoted as saying: No other conception could be further from the correct interpretation of facts. Even if only the physical facet of the economic process is taken into consideration, this process is not circular, but unidirectional. As far as this facet alone is concerned, the economic process consists of a continuous transformation of low entropy into high entropy, that is, into irreversible waste or, with a topical term, into pollution.

While economies are seemingly haphazard and unpredictable, when one is seeing only the ‘trees’ as in classical economic thinking, the ‘forest’ view is actually quite different. In much the same way as ecosystems made up of diverse organisms, plants and animals exhibit organisation and are explicable through ecothermodynamics. Ecosystems, as we have seen, involve heat flows and the dissipation of energy gradients. On the other hand, economies describe money flows and the dissipation of financial pressures. The corollary is that they are also susceptible to thermodynamic interpretations. This is hardly surprising since: Humans, like all life-forms, dwell within ecological networks. These networks obey thermodynamic rules for complex dissipative systems. Conscious agents, we can reinforce or help disentangle the ecological networks of which we are part. Eating beef, for example, reinforces cycles involving agri-business cultivated corn, petroleum that fuels farm equipment to feed livestock, and antibiotics fed in massive amounts to the cattle so that they can digest this plant which is not their traditional food. Negative results from this interdependence include antibiotic-resistance transferred from cattle to humans and lowered sperm counts due perhaps to emasculating oestrogen-like compounds that fatten corn fed cattle. Hamburgers, petroleum theocracies, corn monocrops, antibiotic resistance: our minute daily choices, and the examples they set for others, have far reaching, cumulative, and ultimately biosphere-affecting consequences. When you buy products, you are casting an ecological vote. The election is continuous, and more than human [13]

None of this is new [2] but unfortunately the financial world still places its trust in classical economics, which is not unlike ecologists continuing to rely on equilibrium thermodynamics to explain life processes. In classical economics theoretical models are particularly selective in the way they formulate feedback processes to represent interactions between the economic system and the environment. The norm is to incorporate abstractions or simplifications which are deemed to be representative of real processes. Obviously, by neglecting to include genuine physical and biological representations of interactions between an economy and the environment, models can generate results which do not properly reflect vital issues. An example would be failure to gauge the earth’s capacity to support life, thus resulting in erroneous over optimistic estimates of economic welfare. Moreover, the treatment, classically, of important interdependencies between the economic system and the environment as zero-priced ‘externalities’, which are not fully incorporated into the economic model, even once they have

124

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

been identified as relevant and essential, leads to ‘‘ad hoc corrections introduced as needed to save appearances, like epicycles of Ptolmaic astronomy’’ [14]. In addition to resorting to externalities, economic models are invariably time independent or static, in order to minimise mathematical complexity. Equilibrium thermodynamics is similarly formulated to give a ‘snap shot’ in time of a thermal process independent of its environment such as an engine in a theoretically simplifying ‘closed’ adiabatic set up. Time dependent changes in the environment cannot be simulated except by altering the inputs to the model. Likewise, static economic models consider, machine like, an economic system at a particular point in time. Time dependency is accommodated by introducing progressive parameter changes in what are termed comparative-static simulations [14]. It is self evident that such models are not formulated to fully represent the complex time dependent interactions of an economy and its environment. An alternative theory would recognise that the economy is intimately connected with nature and its flows of energy. This larger economic-ecological system often does not act like a machine at all. Instead its behaviour is marked by threshold effects, and often neither predictable nor controllable. An alternative view would also recognize that there are no good substitutes for some of the most precious things nature gives us, like biodiversity and a benign climate [9]

So we can see that the principles of thermodynamics are not limited in their application to engineering systems, such as machines, and biological systems such as living organisms, which have been explored in preceding chapters. They are, with caution, applicable also to economic systems, such as a single company, a national economy or even the global economy [14]. This is because, as is suggested above, the ‘flows’ in an economy are not too dissimilar to energy and material flows in nature. For example, a machine receives material and energy inputs and generates output power and waste; an animal ingests food (energy), inhales oxygen, produces muscle power and biomass, while exuding waste and CO2. By comparison, an economy accepts raw material and energy inputs from its surroundings and generates products and waste, with money as the lubricant. The primary difficulty in applying thermodynamics to economic systems lies with the definition of boundaries. With the systems described in earlier chapters, boundaries are either closed or open and can be accurately defined. Economic system boundaries, on the other hand, are specified by institutions as they direct the allocation of resources and manage the production and consumption of goods and services. These institutions could be one or more of the following: companies, industries, markets, government regulations and prices. For example, goods traded on markets, goods with well established property rights or goods with non-negative prices are clearly elements within the economic system and within its boundaries [14]. Once the institutions are properly and fully defined the boundaries of an economic system become recognisable and it is then amenable to thermodynamic analysis. Regions out with the boundaries of the target system serve as sources and sinks of zero-priced goods and services. The environment, for example, serves as a provider of clean air or clean water, and as a dump for waste

6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy

125

products. The increasingly robust conclusion of many studies is that the fundamental energy transformations within any economy, embedded in a natural environment, can best be examined through the prism of thermodynamics. It is sobering to discover that when the US economy is examined through this prism, it is estimated to be only 2.5% efficient [15]. The level of waste (97.5%) is staggering, with most of it contributing to the degradation of the biosphere! This could have been known 40 years ago, given the level of understanding of NET which existed then, and would perhaps have halted the disastrous growth, during the latter part of the twentieth century, of free market global capitalism, with its irrational Murphy inspired assumption that human civilisation exists on an Earth of unlimited resources. However, thermodynamic modelling of production processes in economies is not the ‘whole story’. So to extend the influence of non-equilibrium thermodynamics in the financial arena, attempts have also been made, based on the quantity and the quality of energy used [14], to derive a value system permitting the quantitative ordering of economic activities. Such treatments are generally encompassed within the new discipline of environmental economics.

6.1.4 Environmental Economics The advance of environmental economics, or evolutionary economics as it is sometimes described, is predicated on the growing conviction that the energy flow patterns, as we have seen in the non-equilibrium thermodynamic examples found in abiotic and biotic science, are replicated in the financial sphere. It is clear that human economies and civilisations do not present for analysis the easily quantifiable parameters of a simple abiotic heat engine, and so they are generally much more difficult to model. Nevertheless markets and economies are open energetic systems and it is reasonable to expect that they will operate thermodynamically in ways which are not too dissimilar to some of those evaluated in Chaps. 2, 3 and 4. Markets reflect transactional processes, which if successful, dissipate gradients and create local equilibrium. Thus money flows are generated in much the same way as energy is made to flow across gradients in a biotic system. In fact the calculation of energy flows through ecosystems was inspired by the work of the Russian economist Wassily Leontief (1905–1999) whose studies of the flow of money through economic systems permitted the computation of such significant measures as the gross national product (GNP) [13]. It follows that if the total energy throughput of an ecosystem can be computed using calculations which also lead to the determination of the GNP of an economy, then a money driven economy, must be an analogue for processes in the natural world, which are known to be amenable to thermodynamic interpretation. In the natural world, the organisms which prosper and grow are those best able to gain access to the resources, essentially energy gradients, needed to sustain

126

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

viable numbers. In human economies, profitability and success tends to gravitate towards those individuals and companies, which are best able to annex materials, resources and money in order to selfishly exploit energy and financial gradients. In so doing they expand the economy by creating new gradients—money makes money. As Schneider and Sagan [13] have noted in relation to this phenomenon: ‘‘[it] is not only a truism of capitalism, but a reflection of the growth process typical of non-equilibrium systems’’

But since the industrial revolution, human economies have been fuelled and sustained from essentially a single energy source, and like an animal dependent on a single plant (e.g. the panda and bamboo shoots) for survival, it is vulnerable as we are beginning to see in the early twenty-first century, just like the panda which is on the edge of extinction. Whereas organisms prosper within an ecosystem by being increasingly innovative in competing for niche gradients and exploiting them, humans prosper by drawing increasing amounts of energy from there unique ‘treasure store’, supplied by an ancient Sun. Our species has become semi-detached from nature. If we were forced to depend on energy only from today’s Sun, as all other species do, economic expansion, and the maintenance of an advanced civilisation, would remain possible for humans only by the attainment of much more innovative energy efficient technologies than those that, in the main, have been enabled by fossil fuels. We would be forced to develop imaginative technologies (for example efficient photo-voltaic solar cells) capable of exploiting natural gradients, and creating new gradients. We would also be impelled to implement a global economic model fully committed to recycling and slowing entropy production, since we would have no alternative but to remain firmly within the finite envelope of solar energy supply. Conservation of raw materials and maintenance of ecosystems would be a fundamental requirement for a sustainable civilisation. The position is spelled out succinctly by P. Elkins in a treatise on economic growth and sustainability [16] (the emphasis in the quotation is mine): Economic activity increases entropy by depleting resources and producing wastes. Entropy on Earth can only be decreased by importing low entropy resources (solar energy) from outside it. This energy can renew resources and neutralise and recycle waste. To the extent that the human economy is powered by solar energy, it is limited only by the flow of that energy. Growth in physical production and throughput that is not based on solar energy must increase entropy and make environmental problems worse, implying an eventual limit to such growth. Gross National Product can free itself from these limits only to the extent that it ‘decouples’ itself from growth in physical production. Such decoupling has occurred to some extent; but the entropy law decrees that it can never be complete. Optimists believe that decoupling can be substantial and continuous, pessimists are more sceptical.

Current evolutionary economic thinking now indicates that global capitalism has been a huge mistake, and that the human race made a serious error in the 1960s in choosing unfettered credit driven capitalism, demanding endless growth in a

6.1 The Ecology/Economics Dichotomy

127

system presumed to be putatively decoupled from the natural world, rather than Keynesianism, which is, in principle, much more in accord with the dictates of thermodynamics. This is a typical example of a Murphian choice given that the discord between laws of economics and the laws of thermodynamics had been suspected at least 20 years earlier—yet thermodynamics are immeasurably more soundly based. Some have suggested that we probably need to return to fixed currencies as was envisaged for the original Bretton Woods globalised settlement after the last war. The broad architect of this, John Maynard Keynes, has reportedly observed that [17]: …that our absolute wants (those which we feel regardless of our position in society) are limited and finite; it is our relative wants (those which we feel in comparison to what others have in society) that are apparently insatiable—and it is these relative wants that keep the wheels of our growth machine spinning merrily away.

He wanted to prevent trade imbalances developing by making countries in trading surplus compensate those in trading deficit. Arguably, thermodynamic and ecological analogies of economic systems are telling us that we have to return to planned economies. Free market consumer orientated capitalism, particularly the ‘casino’ version, has to be modified, so that it is sensibly subordinated to the interests of the planet and its ecosystem. Uncontrolled markets are inimical to the global ecosystem and hence to the long term survival of the human species on Earth. J.R. Ehlrich, the author of ‘The Population Bomb’, has expressed this need to re-evaluate currently flawed economic principles in this way:: The general public, businessmen, governments, and many business economists appear to believe that population and per capita consumption can grow indefinitely, and that eventually all economic inequities can be eliminated by growth itself. To me and my colleagues, this is an entirely unwarranted assumption—and debunking it may be the single most important task of environmental and resource economists.

Unfortunately, the truth is that ecologically it is ‘getting late’, and this still remains the general perception. There is still no credible plan or strategy to create economically sustainable structures which will fairly accommodate potentially nine billion people, possibly more, in an energy limited world. As ‘Prosperity without Growth’, a report recently released by the Sustainable Development Commission [18], has observed ‘‘a macro-economy predicated on continual expansion of debt driven materialistic consumption is unsustainable ecologically, problematic socially and unstable economically’’. It suggests that the time is now apposite for our global community to start developing a new economic system which can ensure sustainable patterns of commercial and industrial activity. This implies that the system should be one which does not rely for its stability on ‘growth’ and the thermodynamically irreconcilable belief that we live on a planet of ‘infinite’ resources and unlimited capacity to absorb our detritus.

128

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

6.2 Public Disengagement from Science 6.2.1 Educational Decoupling Despite the overwhelming evidence for the success of science and engineering in furnishing the trappings of ‘civilisation’, for example medical advances, sophisticated transport systems, computers, personal and global communication systems, the internet, and space exploration, there is, arguably, a major fault line between perceptions of the scientists and technologists who have created this world, and the rest of the population. The reasons, why this should be, are multifaceted and complex, and have been ably addressed elsewhere [19, 20]. In this section the intention is merely to make some salient observations in order to try and explain the disturbing level of public resistance, which has arisen recently, to the climate change warnings emanating from the scientific community. Throughout the Western World there is evidence that inculcating in school pupils and college students the rudiments of science and mathematics is becoming an increasingly frustrating task. Unfortunately, effective teaching of science and mathematics requires that students should be prodded, cajoled and encouraged to grapple with ideas and concepts, which are often counter-intuitive, and which demand considerable mental effort, before understanding is secured. The joy of the ‘eureka’ moment, which makes the intellectual effort all worthwhile, is being experienced sadly, by fewer and fewer students. In the senior schools, not just in the UK, but in the USA and Europe, where students make decisions about the university or college courses they will pursue, there is an acknowledged shortage of teachers in mathematics and physics, the essential precursors of undergraduate engineering studies. My experience of many years teaching undergraduates in electrical engineering science, is that today, few students entering universities in the UK to study science or engineering have understood, or accept, the need to ‘sweat a little’ in order to gain mastery of an intellectually difficult topic. So if this is the trend for our more able 25–30% of pupils, and only a small percentage of these will enter a science or engineering course, the great majority of young people will depart education essentially ignorant of science. Anecdotal evidence suggests that diminishing technical skills among university entrants is also an issue in many other countries. There is little likelihood that this trend will reverse, since education systems throughout the prosperous industrialised world have begun to prefer the ‘soft’ disciplines, and to value self-expression and emotional intelligence, over problem solving and numeracy. The drift away from engineering and science has also been exacerbated by the lack of role models in the medium which arguably has most influence on the thinking and attitudes of youngsters—namely television. This is not just a UK phenomenon. Aspiring medical doctors, lawyers, financiers, and business men have plenty of programmes which extol their roles in society, but you will look hard to find a programme that depicts an engineer as other than a repair man. I am certainly not suggesting that repair men or women are not valuable, because they

6.2 Public Disengagement from Science

129

are, in our modern increasingly technological societies. But their depiction as the primary representatives of technology and science on the visual broadcast outlets is hardly going to inspire youngsters to develop an interest in the sciences. So the inevitable result is that populations throughout the industrial world have become largely uneducated in the language of science. Widespread occurrence of the Dunning–Kruger [19] effect is an unfortunate corollary. It can be experienced in its most virulent manifestation on the blogosphere. This phenomenon takes the form of a cognitive bias [20] in which ‘‘people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it’’. The unskilled in science therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than actuality; by contrast the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. ‘‘Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others’’. This leads to a perverse result where people incompetent in science will rate their own judgments over those of more knowledgeable scientists. The end result is that it is becoming almost impossible to convince non-scientists and the public in general of the need to acknowledge and accept scientific recommendations which impinge on their lives. In ‘Unscientific America’ this sentiment is expressed as follows [20]: —it is undeniable that the troubling disconnect between the science community and society stems partly from the nature of scientific training today, and from scientific culture generally. In some ways science has become self-isolating. The habits of specialization that have ensured so many research successes have also made it harder to connect outside the laboratory and the ivory tower. As a result, the scientific community simultaneously generates ever more valuable knowledge and yet also suffers declining influence and growing alienation. Too many smart, talented influential people throughout our society don’t see the centrality of science in their lives; and too many scientists don’t know how to explain it to them.

This difficulty has become particularly noticeable in relation to the frustrating attempts by scientists to relay to the general public, through the agency of the IPCC, the nature of the threat of global warming. In the industrialised world where the message most needs to be heard, the resistance to it is severe and not a little worrying.

6.2.2 Parodied by the Media The predicament for the science community in conversing with a public, which is scientifically illiterate, is exacerbated and compounded by the profound scarcity of ‘good’ science coverage in the media. Furthermore newsworthy ‘science’, when it does appear, is generally misreported, distorted and trivialised. As presented in the media, science stories tend to appear in three main categories, namely the ‘wacky’ stories, the ‘breakthrough’ stories, and the ‘scare’ stories [19]. Examples are

130

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

plentiful, with topics ranging from UFO’s, abduction by aliens, miracle cures, homeopathy, gene-therapy, genetic crops, autism, and MMR, and history shows that they have been treated in a manner, presumably in the interests of entertainment and amusement, which has been much to the detriment of serious science. There is good evidence which seems to indicate that the people who direct and control media output mainly originate from humanities backgrounds. This obviously implies that they are largely untutored in science, for reasons outlined above. It has been suggested, that they are possibly resistant to the mainstream scientific narrative, and even resentful of it, because of ‘‘the fact that they have denied themselves access to the most significant developments in the history of Western thought from the past 200 years’’ [19]. It is also true that well qualified scientists are notable by their absence from positions of influence, on those newspapers boasting wide circulation, and on popular television channels. The consequence is that all media coverage of science is prone, perhaps subconsciously, to lapse into implicit attack, both by the choice of stories and by the treatment of these stories, producing a result which, to a scientist, smacks strongly of parody. In addition to being surrounded by technology in their everyday lives, media folk are particularly reliant, in order to reach their audience, on sophisticated electronic equipment associated with radio communications and broadcasting, none of which could possibly have been realised without the efforts of Ampere, Faraday, Maxwell, Hertz, Marconi, Shockley and Baird, to name but a few. Their contributions, which continue to inform electrical engineers and scientists, having stood the test of time as science has progressed. Yet to journalists, despite being immersed in this wonderful technology, which is apparently invisible to them, the evidence of their output is that science is adjudged to be incidental to ‘real’ life. It is also viewed it seems, as being trivial, tenuous, tendentious, contradictory and incomprehensible. From this idiosyncratic and distorted position, they then proceed to attack scientists in the belief that they are actually critiquing the true nature of the discipline itself. Needless to say, it has become all too common these days to hear talk of public money being wasted on dumb research projects which get the ‘wacky’ treatment, or of the irresponsibility of scientists for publishing findings, which are then presented to the general public as ‘scare stories’. It is as if scientists have nothing else to do but pursue research which does little more than annoy or unsettle the public. In this environment, scientific findings are given little more import than the opinions of politicians, religious leaders, newspaper columnists and ‘twitterers’, as is clearly illustrated in a recent book entitled ‘L’Imposture Climatique’ (The Climate Swindle) by Claude Allegre. The end result is that any serious scientific findings, which could be important and could presage potentially significant lifestyle changes, can readily be dismissed, since they are given no more weight than malleable opinions. If unpalatable adjustments are demanded, the sceptical public can be dismissive with a clear conscience. Thus the combination, of media hype and misinformation, and public distrust in science, has made it, and still makes it, very much harder than it should be, for democratic governments and politicians to act sensibly and rationally, and for the public good, when science advises them to

6.2 Public Disengagement from Science

131

do so. In the case of climate change, such action is now required urgently for the good of the human species, and all other species, but it is inevitably meeting very stiff resistance. Arguably the climate change crisis is much more serious than say the supposed menace represented by the ‘Evil Empire’, in the form of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. At the time the media and the newspapers were hugely exercised by this apparent danger: the film industries poured out pro-western propaganda films; novelists wrote a plethora of books pitting the ‘free-world’ against communism; newspapers and the news media were full of articles decrying the perils of communism. There was no shortage of material educating the public as to the nature of the threat. When similar coverage is awarded to global warming, we will know that the public at large is beginning to get the message and that they want something done about it—hopefully before it is too late.

6.3 Inveterate Polluters 6.3.1 Fossil-Fuel Pollution In an article in The Observer, of 30th May 2010, John Vidal their environment editor penned the following description of a recent voyage through the Niger Delta: We reached the edge of the oil spill near the Nigerian village of Otuegwe after a long hike through cassava plantations. Ahead of us lay swamp. We waded into the warm tropical water and began swimming, cameras and notebooks held above our heads. We could smell the oil long before we saw it—the stench of garage forecourts and rotting vegetation hanging thickly in the air. The farther we travelled, the more nauseous it became. Soon we were swimming in pools of light Nigerian crude, the best-quality oil in the world. One of the many hundreds of 40-year-old pipelines that crisscross the Niger delta had corroded and spewed oil for several months. Forest and farmland were now covered in a sheen of greasy oil. Drinking wells were polluted and people were distraught. No one knew how much oil had leaked. ‘‘We lost our nets, huts and fishing pots,’’ said Chief Promise, village leader of Otuegwe and our guide. This is where we fished and farmed. We have lost our forest. We told Shell of the spill within days, but they did nothing for 6 months. That was the Niger delta a few years ago, where, according to Nigerian academics, writers and environment groups, oil companies have acted with such impunity and recklessness that much of the region has been devastated by leaks. In fact, more oil is spilled from the delta’s network of terminals, pipes, pumping stations and oil platforms every year than has been lost in the Gulf of Mexico, the site of a major ecological catastrophe caused by oil that has poured from a leak triggered by the explosion that wrecked BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig last month.

A tiny sample of the oily black devastation in the Niger Delta is shown in Fig. 6.1, and the wholesale irreversible destruction of a mountainous landscape in order to excavate the buried coal, which lies within, is shown in Fig. 6.2.

132

Fig. 6.1 Oil pollution in the Niger Delta

Fig. 6.2 Open-cast coal mining in West Virginia in the USA

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

6.3 Inveterate Polluters

133

Astonishingly, the majority of the local population in West Virginia does not find this gross destruction of the landscape controversial—although this is changing through the efforts of environmentalists such as James Hansen. It seems incredible that people can be convinced that there is no alternative to such devastation when there is. But of course, they are manipulated. The capitalist juggernaut, represented by global companies and corporations, has become so powerful that it can manoeuvre the democratic process to its own ends, and be dismissive of popular concerns. Perhaps, in this globalising age, on a planet supporting almost seven billion people, individuals feel increasingly powerless? This is a question for an anthropologist, not an applied scientist. However, even a scientist can see that a paradoxical quirk of modern democracies is that the weak and disadvantaged are easily persuaded to vote for parties with policies, which are under-written by the rich and powerful. In so doing, they are supporting vested interests which are patently inimical to their own. The result is that while the ‘tyranny of the state’ is neutered so also is the protection provided by the state from the possibly worse eco-tyranny of big business and corporations. It appears that democratic governments, and perhaps even governments of other hues, have essentially lost the ability to regulate the globe-spanning purveyors of environmentally harmful technology. Unfortunately the ecologically most risky developments are being pioneered by companies and corporations, which are so massive that national governments have become ill equipped to even question the validity of their activities, never mind restraining them.

6.3.2 Polluting Instinct The multi-national energy companies, while they are probably the most regular polluters of the planet, and have arguably the greatest potential to do irreparable damage, are by no means the only ones. Almost every city and town across the globe shows evidence of residents who are careless and uncaring of the pollution they cause. Several years ago I had occasion to write to a national newspaper (The Herald, UK) expressing my disquiet at the polluting habits of local school children. It went as follows: Dear Sir/Madam, In the increasingly windy capital of Scotland, I fear we are heading for suffocation by litter if the current school generation is a pointer to the future. At lunch time on any week day, a walker in the west end of the city would be bound to note the congregating seagulls on local roofs. An old mariner, if asked, would probably offer the answer that ‘there must be a storm at sea’. However, a local will know better. The seagulls gather to forage on discarded rubbish from the ‘human trawlers’ soon to pass by. Between the hours of 1.00 and 2.00 p.m. pupils from the nearby secondary schools, those intent on getting their fast-food fix, decamp to the local chip-shop and supermarket. The unhealthy diet purchased there is partly consumed on the way back to school, the rest is strewn over a half mile corridor, in a trail of half eaten bread rolls, chips, chip papers, half

134

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

empty tin cans, plastic bottles, plastic bags, and polystyrene cups and cartons with contents only partially consumed. I could go on! The seagulls have a field day. Any attempt to correct this anti-social behaviour by intervention will merely result in ‘dog’s abuse’. Representations to the headmaster to deter irresponsible pupils from leaving the school, get the response that this is not possible, because it interferes with their ‘human rights’. Parents apparently back this stance. While the council try to control the problem by sending out staff to collect the rubbish, needless to say in windy Edinburgh not of all of it gets collected, and it finds its way into the countryside. For a regular walker in the potentially beautiful surroundings of this city it is depressing not to be able to walk without encountering litter. To make matters worse, this city litter is made worse by fly tipping. At the entrance to almost any country lane or path that is not securely gated, heaps of ripped black plastic bags exposing their contents to the wind and weather, are sure to be found. If the planet is not going to be poisoned by carbon dioxide it will probably be choked by human detritus. Yours sincerely,

If one ignores the ‘tongue in cheek’ poetic license, the sentiment is clear. Since young people ape their elders in matters other than fashion, it is difficult not to conclude that this new generation perceives its predecessors as having been serial polluters and that they have been left a degraded planet. Consequently, it hardly seems surprising that they consider that discarding their rubbish and waste in local streets is somehow acceptable and not anti-social. In fact the relationship of homo-sapiens to environmental degradation goes surprisingly deep. As Schneider and Sagan [13] have hinted: Our human ancestors, who were much less numerous before the innovations of agriculture, tended to be nomads who did not worry about destroying their environment, because they moved on to the next campsite.

Early humans moving in small groups foraged and hunted like many other species for about 4 million years before turning to agriculture. The records suggest that they probably occupied and foraged for food in agreeable areas of the planet until these sites no longer supplied their needs, then moved on. Of course the groups were too small to cause serious damage to the local ecology, although a recent paper suggests that by helping to wipe out mammoths their influence may not have been negligible [21]. By their destruction they did little more than expose new sources of energy gradients for other species to exploit, thereby leading to rapid recovery of the flora and fauna. The worst they could do would be to initiate forest fires, but as we now know fires form part of the natural cycle, with many species able to take advantage of a charred and carbonised forest floor, so engendering speedy rehabilitation. As we have seen in Chap. 3 the thermodynamic imperative of the second law requires that energy and gradient depleting organisms produce waste, but in a climax ecosystem it is virtually all recycled, so there is clearly nothing unnatural about the generation of waste whether by humans or any other animal, as long as it is within the capacity of the ecosystem to absorb and recycle it. Unfortunately humans have long since progressed beyond this environmental ideal. Today, our deeply ingrained waste creating nomadic heritage is a huge impediment to the achievement of sustainable societies. When the human species

6.3 Inveterate Polluters

135

of nearly 7 billion individuals has rubbished its current home—the planet as a whole—beyond the ecosphere’s capacity to make accommodation, it cannot move on, or behave as if it is passing through, like its early ancestors. There is no galactic restoration scheme and there is nowhere else to go! While the nomadic instinct possibly helps to explain an evident element of carelessness and irresponsibility on the part of humans in general, in their treatment of their planetary home, it hardly explains the seemingly passive acceptance of wanton irreversible destruction and the irredeemably crass short-sightedness of the activities which produce the very visible scarring of the planet, as powerfully represented in the photographs shown in Figs. 6.1 and 6.2, and ignorant and inexcusable habitat destruction for other species. In democratic countries, this level of planetary poisoning and disfigurement can be carried out by governments, business moguls and many other high level, presumably intelligent officials, because popular resistance doesn’t seem to exist, or is unable or unwilling to express itself. So what sort of mind-set, or belief system, permits the mass of people to passively accept this mindless destruction at a level which is selfevidently irreversible and which we now know is ‘killing’ the planet, because the products of this vandalism are poisoning the ecosphere?

6.3.3 Collapsing Civilisation Population numbers are overwhelming the structures of civilisation. Governance systems were evolved in an earlier age when numbers were in their millions rather than billions. This change raises considerable difficulties for the human race. As sagely noted [22] in ‘‘One with Nineveh’’, Homo sapiens is a transformed chimp, struggling to update its ancient primal social system to deal with the governance and ethical problems of living in a global, half highly technological, half traditional society of more than 6 billion individuals.

In the technological realm, long before about 1800, when developments were mainly understood by, and were controlled by, those appointed to ensure that changes to civilisations’ infrastructure and artefacts were to the benefit of the citizens as a whole (one thinks particularly of the Romans) the societal planning, approval and monitoring systems could arguably be claimed to cope. But now, governments largely operate in ‘fire fighting’ mode. For example, in the more prosperous regions of the planet, road building can hardly keep pace with the unprecedented escalation of vehicle numbers, due in part to a poor understanding and a lack of anticipation by legislators of the rapid technology advances, which have made automobiles ridiculously cheap and hence unexpectedly plentiful. Airport building has been equally pell-mell, commandeering huge tracts of fertile land to accommodate burgeoning air travel. Again the process has been haphazard and largely reactive to unforeseen (by planners) developments in aircraft capabilities and capacities. Unplanned reactivity is also evident in handling

136

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

some of the unanticipated effects of mass global travel such as rapidly crumbling heritage sights overwhelmed by tourist numbers, such as global terrorism, and such as the spread of organisms to parts of the world where they have not naturally existed in the past, increasing the risk of disease and of more frequent pandemics. Overwhelmed planning and commissioning systems are common place in the energy sector, from ill advised hydroelectric schemes to ill considered allocations of oil and coal exploitation rights, largely because the science and technology is poorly understood by those making the decisions. Drilling for oil a mile below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico should never have been authorised by well informed technologically adept legislators. We are already reaping a painful ecological harvest from this and many other ill-advised schemes, with the most depressing and distressing ecological disaster still to come in the form of run-away global warming. While the ‘half highly technological’ evolution has tended to confound the traditional governance roles in society, traditional culture has been plodding along largely unchanged despite the emergence of a huge, highly mobile, global population. As the Ehlrich’s [22] express it, in referring to technological advances: There has been no parallel development of a worldwide social, ethical or religious system suited for a twenty-first century civilization that is occupying an ever more crowded and resource-depleted planet.

This is worrying because sustainability probably requires the forging of a set of ethics for Homo-sapiens which accommodates the natural world [22]. The current disconnect between the dominant human culture and the biophysical facts of life probably goes some way to explaining the lack of restraint, on the rich and powerful, in their gross exploitation of the environment. But the disconnect is sustained by a number of over-lapping cultural factors such as distrust of science and scientists, which we have already examined, mixed in with fear of change leading to denial, popular dislike of activism, a distinct inclination to trust in authority, and for some, religious beliefs allied to self-delusion. Anthropological studies on early fossils indicate that nascent man and possibly even Neanderthals buried their dead [22]. Furthermore they buried bodies along with primitive possessions suggesting that they ‘believed’ in some form of after death journey. The human propensity to believe, in the absence of evidence, the bedrock of religion, seems to have been ingrained from the earliest period in our development. Fortunately there is no evidence of a genetic source [23] for irrational belief. So we can have some hope that environmentally inconvenient beliefs can be modified. An education programme, referred to as ‘conscious cultural evolution’ is recommended in ‘‘One with Nineveh’’. The myth of the special place of the human species above and separate from the natural world, and a deeply embedded notion of our ownership of it, is part of religious irrationality, and it has not helped those cautioning restraint on our fossil fuel addicted societies, in order to preserve the health of the planet. Such supremacy concepts were certainly still prevalent a 100 years ago, and sadly, despite our comprehensive knowledge of the workings of the Universe from

6.3 Inveterate Polluters

137

quarks to quasars, they seem to be just as deeply entrenched in the human psyche even today, and continue to place an immense barrier in the way of those trying to foster the widespread acceptance of ecological imperatives. Arguably religious belief, which was almost universally practised by our ancestors, is the source of the human predisposition towards self-delusion. Modern persuasion techniques are primarily dependent not on crudely appealing to the conscious mind, but on taking advantage of this unfortunate human tendency. One of the biggest obstacles to social change is the presence of this propaganda system, working ceaselessly and undetected within our skulls. It is well described by Goleman [24] in a recent book in which he explains how humans deceive themselves by distorting the pictures of reality in their minds and by burying painful insights and memories, presumably arising out of the evolutionary process by which: The human nervous system has evolved to screen possible perceptions in certain ways so that individuals are cognizant of and influenced by only a small part of the potential stimuli that are ‘out there’. [22]

To function sanely in a complex world we tell ourselves ‘vital lies’. Goleman suggests that we do this on many levels, from that of the individual mind to the collective awareness of a group. In the interests of psychological self-preservation, there are things that we ignore, things that we fail to mention, things that we choose not to ask about. In fact, it seems that we internalise the barely conscious choice not to notice, and therefore suppress, our feelings of uneasiness and discomfort. They do not exist. The result of this is that we develop blind spots and slip into a state of self-deception. ‘‘We do not see what we do not want see and so it becomes non-existent’’. Goleman states that this is a self-preservation mechanism. Hence a society’s blind spot to environmental desecration. It preserves the psychological health of society and of the individual within it. The truth is too difficult to bear. The problem that looms large in relation to surmounting this cultural resistance to change and hence to moving civilisation away from the ecologically disastrous ‘business-as-usual’ economic model, is crystallised in the following postulate. If a single representative of the species Homo-sapiens can continue to pursue an activity (namely smoking), because it pleases him/her, in the full knowledge that the scientific evidence is incontrovertibly pointing to the fact that doing so is equated to a much increased risk of severe ill health in later life, or even of an early death, what chance is there of the whole species giving up pleasurable, carbon intensive, lifestyles for the benefit of future generations? One would like to believe the many optimistic urgings that humanity can be re-educated. These can be found in the literature [17] and particularly in anthropological texts [22, 23, 25], but given the past record of our species in ignoring scientific warnings, it is difficult to be sanguine about the prospects for life on Earth. That is not to say that nothing should be done. Technologically a great deal is possible as outlined in Chaps. 7 and 8. But the recommended massive transition to a fossil fuel free economic system is unlikely to happen without an answer to the population and cultural conundrums.

138

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

6.4 Ecocidal Tendencies The relevance of thermodynamics to the search for explanations and insights into the fundamental processes of life has been emphasised in this book, and thereby it has been possible to examine with some authority, hopefully, the growing climate change phenomenon, and mankind’s contribution to it. The point has been reached, where it is now feasible to present tolerably clear evidence, that Homo-sapiens displays ecocidal tendencies—that the vast majority of mankind chooses to travel sightless towards a precipice. As Flannery [26] has observed succinctly and cogently: We have known for some decades that the climate change we are creating for the twentyfirst century was of a similar magnitude to that seen at the end of the last ice age, but that it was occurring thirty times faster. We have known that the Gulf Stream shut down on at least three occasions at the end of the last ice age, that sea levels rose by at least 100 m, that the Earth’s biosphere was profoundly re-organised, and we have known that agriculture was impossible before the Long Summer of 10,000 years ago. And so there has been little reason for our blindness, except perhaps for an unwillingness to look such horror in the face and say, ‘‘You are my creation’’.

The state-of-the-art in science of climate change, as of 2010, can be quite briefly, but firmly, stated as follows: 1. Solar activity is not responsible for the recent growth of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. 2. Thermodynamic laws dictate that the introduction of heat into an equilibrium thermodynamic system such as the biosphere by burning fossil fuels produces a massive increase in entropy. 3. Combusting fossil fuel is returning ancient carbon to the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide and methane. The scientific methodology associated with the recording of the growth in greenhouse gases is well established. 4. The science is also firmly established in identifying these gases as greenhouse gases which are forming an increasingly effective ‘insulating blanket’ around the earth. 5. Average global temperatures are rising and will continue to soar for the blanketed earth as the biosphere in accordance with the first law attempts to restore equilibrium—i.e. to remove the imbalance between power input from the sun and the power re-radiated by the planet. 6. The degree of sensitivity in the ecological balance of the ‘great Earth system’ continues to be poorly defined. How easily could it tip from a rebalancing feedback process to a runaway feed-forward process? The literature suggests that scientists largely agree that a 2C average global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels could initiate runaway positive feedback processes. 7. Where the science is stretched to challengeable limits is in the use of climate models to project measured trends into the future; this is because models are necessarily simplifications of reality and important parameters such as the sensitivity of temperature to greenhouse gas concentration (in ppmv) in the atmosphere continue to be difficult to specify.

6.4 Ecocidal Tendencies

139

Almost all reputable scientists would accept that items 1–5 can be construed as ‘science-fact’, while item 6 continues to exercise climatologists greatly since it has considerable bearing on assessing future trends. The difficulties of prediction are also highlighted in item 7. Against this background of increasing scientific certainty about the existence and the processes of anthropogenic global warming, the inaction of our species in allowing it to happen is, at the very least, deserving of censure. If ‘a case for the prosecution’ of mankind for the ‘crime of ecocide’, were to be formulated, for whatever reason, it would surely encompass the statements enunciated below: 1. Ignored warnings: Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, as we have seen, a stream of cautionary scientific warnings, initially a ‘dribble’, but now a ‘steady flow’, has been available to the civilised world. From the very early musings of Fourier at the beginning of the century, with subsequent more substantial contributions from Tyndall, Arrhenius, Hulbert and Callendar, anthropogenic climate change was firmly on the scientific agenda by 1900, but it was otherwise ignored or unnoticed by the general public. By 1940, as a result of the research efforts of Kirchhoff, Planck and Chandrasekhar the physics of global warming had been solidly established, but it took till about 1970, as a result of promptings from Lovelock, Mann, Hansen and many others, before the media began to communicate the science, albeit somewhat incoherently and unconvincingly, to the outside world. The charge is compounded by the fact that direct evidence of the dangers of burning fossil fuels has been readily accessible, to those with open minds, in the form of smog, acid rain, disappearing glaciers, disappearing Arctic ice, desertification, and arguably hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the devastating floods in Pakistan in 2010. Sadly, despite the evidence, the ecocidal tendencies of deniers and naysayers are still, in 2010, predominant where it matters. 2. The fiction of decoupling: During the nineteenth and early twentieth century, history suggests that capitalists in the industrialised West, reared on classical economic theory, became increasingly supportive of the notion that financial processes in a market economy could be decoupled from the ‘real economy’ and from the natural world. The evidence indicates that their thermodynamically primitive theories were conditioned to regard material and energy flows as emanating from inexhaustible sources, and ‘externalities’ such as benign climates for agriculture, clean water, clean air, natural sinks for human detritus, as ‘free’ and could be treated as zero cost items. This ecocidal view, persistently entertained despite the evidence to the contrary, has led to the environmentally disastrous, yet unchallenged, market driven, global capitalist system which we have today—now teetering on collapse as Murphy would probably have predicted. 3. Grossly inefficient technology: Engineering developments during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries have been inordinately wasteful of power (see Sect. 5.2), not because engineers and scientists were unaware of the laws of thermodynamics—far from it! But they were, like the rest of mankind, strongly imbued with, and accepting of, the idea that non-renewable fossil fuels were cheap,

140

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

plentiful, and seemingly inexhaustible. Consequently the efficient use of energy in engineering design and development attracted very low priority. Science and engineering was focused almost exclusively on the requirements and demands of economic growth. This has begun to change, but only very recently. An example of energy profligacy is provided by the electrical supply industry, which at best converts only 10% of the energy contained in the combusted fossil fuel, to provide electrical power at consumer sockets! The rest poisons the atmosphere. In other words, we extract so little of the energy in fossil fuels to produce useful work that we could hardly have done much more environmental damage if we had simply combusted it all in open fires in the open air. Now surely that would be considered to be ecocidal! 4. Denial of science: Despite the existence of overwhelming evidence for the success of science/engineering in furnishing the trappings of ‘civilisation’, from medical advances, sophisticated transport systems, personal and global communication systems and the internet, to space exploration, the historical record indicates that the public in most industrialised countries have become increasingly illiterate scientifically. Furthermore they have become unjustifiably sceptical of the findings of, and the advisory pronouncements from, science. For this we have to indict both the ‘media’, which trivialises science, and modern education techniques, which have failed, for reasons outlined in Sect. 5.5, to maintain student interest in this increasing difficulty topic. The result is the creation, in the industrialised West, of science averse populations, and with precious little understanding of thermodynamics, they refuse to be persuaded of the seriousness of climate change. 5. Nomadic instincts: The human species has not cast off the nomadic instincts of our distant ancestors. The evidence is that mankind seems intent on rubbishing the planet as a whole to a point where it is beyond the ecosphere’s capacity to make accommodation. We do not seem to appreciate that we cannot move on, once our current home becomes ‘unfit for purpose’. There is no galactic restoration scheme and there is nowhere else to go! 6. Cultural barriers: The ethics of human society have not progressed much beyond, in Christian terms, the Ten Commandments. Reference to the biosphere is notably absent from the ethical rules of life. Without an ethical regime which under-pins the fact of a human species embedded within the natural world, and which properly establishes a meaningful long term relationship to it, it is hardly surprising that ecological concerns gain little attention in human discourse. Sustainability is not possible without an attitudinal ‘sea change’ in the bulk of humanity.

6.4.1 A Diagnosis of Ecocide Increasingly, signs are emerging that the tipping points, indicative of the onset of non-linear processes in the earth system thermostat, which are predicted to be the

6.4 Ecocidal Tendencies

141

precursors of run-away global warming, are being reached. One such sign is the rapid disappearance of the summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. The loss of albedo will undoubtedly accelerate warming through positive feedback. Most scientists would probably agree that there is now (at the end of 2010) no more than a 5–6 years ‘window’ for mankind to resolutely move the global economy from one dependent on fossil fuels to one dependent on renewable power, to make in-roads on population stabilization and reduction, and to ease humans whole scale, into a diet of fish, poultry, fruit and vegetables. But, we are currently on an ecocidal journey. By procrastinating, as we continue to do, on the need for action, mankind is gambling that non-linear behaviour of the eco-system can be avoided. The vast majority of our species believe that anthropogenic heating is too insignificant, if it exists at all, to discomfit the climatic workings of a huge planet. But, the records show that climate change can arise from small perturbations, and if non-linear processes are triggered, as global temperatures edge upwards, the changes incurred could be dramatic. They are likely to have an especially devastating effect on biodiversity and eco-system services on which humanity depends. Should we fail, which seems highly likely, the growing evidence from science is that the current 4.5 million years long biologically diverse epoch, leading to the emergence of mammals, including Homo-sapiens, will end. When asked what people should do given this seemingly bleak future, James Lovelock is attributed with the terse response: ‘‘Do not be under forty’’. The good news is that instigated by the remaining plant and microbial life, or perhaps insect life, evolution will be replayed, and ecological succession at the global scale, appears very likely to be the future for the planet. Of course, it may take 3–4 million years for intelligent beings, capable of making sense of the fossils from the first ‘age of intelligent life’ on the Earth, to again roam the surface of the planet. The presence of those fossils will hopefully caution them not to make the same mistakes that we made. It is interesting to note that anthropologists [22] pose a slightly different question: Will future hunters and gatherers, as writers are beginning to imagine, wonder over the origins of remains of skyscrapers, railroads and freeways, and invent religion to explain them?

Fortunately, a less dismal future for mankind is still possible, but the ‘window of opportunity is closing fast’. To grasp it will require a major and early refocusing of the global economy away from reliance on fossil fuels towards renewable forms of energy. A possible, tentatively offered, route map is presented in Chaps. 7 and 8.

References 1. 2. 3. 4.

Davis HT (1941) The theory of econometrics. Principia, Bloomington Ferguson N (2008) The ascent of money. Allen Lane (Penguin Books), London Mongomery Hyde H (1969) John law: the history of an honest adventurer. Allen, London Tett Gillian (2009) Fool’s gold: how unrestrained greed corrupted a dream, shattered global markets and unleashed a catastrophe. Little, Brown

142

6 Eco-Blind Civilisation

5. Neal L (2000) A shocking view of economic history. J Econ Hist 60(2):317–334 6. Taleb NN (2007) Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets. Penguin Books, London 7. Taleb NN (2008) The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. Penguin Books, London 8. Underwood DA, King PG (1989) The ideological foundations of environmental policy. Ecol Econ 1:315–334 9. Homer-Dixon T (2006) The upside of down. Island Press, Washington DC 10. Schwartz B (2005) The paradox of choice: why more is less. Harper Collins, London 11. Korten D (1998) Money versus wealth www.hackvan.com/pub/stig/articles/yes-magazinemoney-issue/Korten.html 12. Georgescu-Roegen N (1971) The entropy law and the economic process. Harvard Universtiy Press, Massachusetts 13. Schneider ED, Sagan D (2005) Into the cool. Chicago University Press, Chicago 14. Ruth M (1993) Integrating economics, ecology and thermodynamics kluwer academic publishers, London 15. Ayres RU (1989) Energy efficiency in the U.S. Economy: a new case for conservation. Internat. Instit. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 16. Elkins P (2000) Economic growth and environmental sustainability. Routledge, London 17. Porritt Jonathon (2008) Capitalism: as if the world matters. Earthscan, London 18. Prosperity without growth: sustainable development commission, March (2009) 19. Goldacre B (2008) Bad science. Harper Collins, London 20. Mooney C, Kirshenbaum S (2009) Unscientific America. Basic Books, New York 21. Doughty C (2010) Biophysical feedbacks between the Pleistocene megafauna extinction and climate. Geophys Res Lett 37:10–15 22. Ehrlich P, Ehrlich A (2008) The dominant animal. Island press, Shearwater Books, Washington, DC 23. Ehrlich P, Ehrlich A (2004) One with nineveh. Island press, Shearwater Books, Washington, DC 24. Goleman D (1996) Vital lies, simple truths: the psychology of self-deception. Simon and Schuster, London 25. Singer P (1997) How are we to live? Ethics in an age of self-interest. Oxford Paperbacks, New Edition, Oxford 26. Flannery T (2005) The weather makers. Penguin Books, London

Chapter 7

Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era The development of civilization and industry in general has always shown itself so active in the destruction of forests, that everything that has been done for their conservation and production is completely insignificant in comparison Karl Marx We are the first species (as far as we know) that is able to reflect on where we have come from and where we are headed. We are, therefore, able to conceptualise the necessary conditions for our own survival as a species and, in the light of that understanding, so shape our living patterns in order to optimise our survival chances Jonathan Porritt

7.1 Legacy of the Fossil Fuel Era 7.1.1 Economic Juggernaut In Chap. 4 it was noted in passing, that the evolution of advanced market economies based, not on fossil fuels, but on renewable energy, was certainly a feasible option for mankind and could undoubtedly have been initiated almost two centuries ago. However, once substantial deposits of coal had been discovered, the adoption of the fossil fuel route to ‘civilisation’ was inevitable. Since then, despite strong and clear scientific warnings, from as early as 1900, that over reliance on fossil fuel burning for much of our energy needs would lead inexorably to serious ecological ramifications for the planet, mankind persevered. Once the economic community became ‘hooked’ on cheap and plentiful coal, oil and natural gas, a juggernaut was unleashed, which soon began advancing along an irresistible coarse, leading to ‘growth’, ‘consumerism’ and ‘globalisation’. These activities are all predicated on the denial of the laws of thermodynamics, so needless to say environmental problems were the unavoidable corollary. By the late nineteenth century there is little doubt that the levers of power were in the hands of the scientifically challenged, namely lawyers, economists and industrial entrepreneurs and their sympathisers in the political arena, not because of a cultural change among leaders of the industrial world, but because science was, by then, advancing so rapidly that ruling elites could no longer ‘keep up’, and hence be sensitive to the looming environmental threats posed by increasingly powerful and sophisticated technology. As we have indicated in Chap. 6, the consequence of this dwindling of scientific awareness among the decision makers in the industrial world, was that technology was allowed to advance in an essentially blind and erratic manner, not unlike ‘a bull in a china shop’, when

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_7, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

143

144

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

viewed from an ecological perspective. To the ‘movers and shakers’ the cautioning voice of science was as futile as that of a metaphorical lamb vainly bleating on a storm lashed hillside. It still is, when in April 2010 it is possible for an oil company to drill for oil a mile below the surface in the Gulf of Mexico, and for others to be planning to drill in the Arctic with little genuine democratic control. Any experienced scientist or engineer would have known that without stringent and strictly enforced government safeguards, and there were virtually none following the Bush administrations ‘drill baby drill’ inclinations, these difficult activities, pushing at the limits-of-technology, are accidents waiting to happen. In such a complex operation, set up by a profit conscious and shareholder sensitive private company, a visit from Murphy was entirely predictable.

7.1.2 An Earth of Infinite Capacity Self-evidently, in the early nineteenth century, the global extent of the new resource, that was coal, was largely unknown. So it is arguable that the rapid adoption of largely uncharted and unquantified fossil fuel caches as our primary source of power, to lubricate our burgeoning ‘energy hungry’ societies, was foolhardy. But history suggests that this thought was hardly given ‘house room’ because humans are, for various reasons, as touched upon in the previous chapter, irrationally inculcated with belief systems, which are rooted in the idea of a planet of boundless capacity. Such an Earth can, of course, be exploited without limit. But how did this ‘infinite Earth’ concept persist for so long? While scientists and engineers may have been too slow in seeing the fallacy, by being tardy in getting to grips with climate thermodynamics, and hence in seeing the dangers in greenhouse gas emissions, the vast majority of people, even in 2010, still refuse to accept that there are limits. The literature suggests that the strictures of thermodynamics have only just filtered through to economists and the financial classes. The International Society for Ecological Economics, for example, was formed as recently as 1988. It is not an exaggeration to suggest that most politicians and economists—and hence the rest of the science averse human race—do not appreciate, even today, the dangers of climate change, despite warnings, which have become increasingly coherent and strident since about 1960. At 2009 G8 meeting in L’Aquila, Italy, leaders guaranteed that they would do all in there power to limit global warming to 2C and that carbon emissions would be reduced by 80% from the 1990 level by 2050. Gordon Brown, at the time the UK Prime Minister is quoted as briefing the media with the following words: ‘‘We have agreed for the first time that the average global temperatures must rise by no more than 2C. That’s an historic agreement’’. It is difficult not to be cynical when one hears such a statement. What politician cares about what happens when he/she is out of office (Brown already is), or is no longer functioning, and how on Earth does he/ she think that a 2C rise can be guaranteed. This is like starting a fire in the forest, and after it begins to spread into the undergrowth, promising that the forest will be saved by putting out the original fire, when the sparks have already started to fly.

7.1 Legacy of the Fossil Fuel Era

145

The dilemma for mankind, of attempting to form a sustainable civilised future around modern market capitalism, is aptly summarised as follows, by H. Daly in ‘Beyond Growth’: The forces propelling economic growth are simultaneously eroding the moral foundation of the very social order which gives purpose and direction to that growth. On the demand side of the market, the glorification of self-interest and the pursuit of ‘infinite wants’ leads to a weakening of moral distinctions between luxury and necessity. Moral limits constraining demand for junk are convenient in a growth economy because growth increases when junk sells. So the growth economy fosters the erosion of the values upon which it depends, such as honest, sobriety, trust, etc. On the supply side the ‘infinite’ power of science-based technology is thought to be capable of overcoming all biophysical limits. But even if this erroneous proposition were true, the very world view of scientism leads to the debunking of any notion of transcendental value and to undercutting the moral basis of the social cohesion presupposed by market society[1].

One is therefore impelled to ask—how much ‘unwinding’ of recent human progress is necessary to halt the ecocidal juggernaut? Thermodynamic considerations point to three quite recent, but significant human developments where reversal seems to be unavoidable. These are: the uncontrolled expansion in the human population to unsustainable numbers, the modern addiction to economic growth and rampant consumerism, and the mushrooming energy wasteful lifestyles made possible by ridiculously cheap fossil fuels. In this chapter each of these propositions will be assessed within the context of the thermodynamic straitjacket, and the ecocidal implications of breaching it, which is our concern in this book.

7.2 Cures for Ecocide The ecocidal proclivity of the human species originates from the discovery of huge stores of combustible fossil fuels in seams and wells below our feet, and has been stoked by the subsequent evolution of fossil fuel hungry agricultural practices and economic systems, which have resulted in unsustainable human numbers. Any effective ‘cure’ must surely contain the three elements identified in the preceding section: (1) addressing population growth, (2) ending mankind’s dependence on fossil fuels, (3) constructing a sustainable economic system. Items (1) and (3) are copiously treated in the literature. Without in any way wishing to enter the disciplinary ‘mine fields’ represented by population growth and sustainable capitalism, this chapter merely provides summarising comment on relevant aspects of these major topics, proffered from the perspective of someone with a concern for the thermodynamic and ecological realities that constrain us. The second item will be examined in considerable detail in Chap. 8.

146

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

7.2.1 Dampening the Population Explosion Human population continues to grow by more than 75 million individuals annually. Since 1970, global population and annual carbon dioxide emissions have both increased by about 70%. By 2050, reliable projections based on United Nations population statistics, suggest that there will be at least nine billion people on the planet, with the number perhaps climbing to ten billion before it levels off late in the current century (see Fig. 7.1). These are huge numbers. To get some idea of the magnitude, let us consider what nine billion grains of commonly available granulated sugar would look like. For the variety used in kitchens around the globe the average grain size, the last time I took notice, was typically 0.5 9 0.5 9 0.5 mm = 0.125 mm3 = 0.125 9 10-9 m3. Consequently we can easily calculate that nine billion = 9 9 109 grains will occupy a volume of 1.125 m3 if there were no gaps between grains—an unlikely scenario. Actually it is more likely that each grain will occupy a volume equal to about 1.5 times its actual volume in a loose random mix. So we have the nine billion grains taking up a volume of approximately 1.8 m3. Given that the ‘bog standard’ bath has a volume of 2 9 1 9 0.5 m = 1 m3 our nine billion grains would almost fill two baths! Just to reinforce the notion, let us consider that we had a clever robot that could select and count grains at one every second, how long would it take to complete the task? It is not difficult to work out that 9 9 109 s is approximately 286 years. This is an almost unimaginable number of grains—each one representing an energy hungry human being by 2050. Consequently, even with a successful technology-based transition, away from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy, as projected in Chap. 8, this will not be enough to secure a sustainable future, if population levels continue to develop as indicated in Fig. 7.1a. It has been depressingly observed, and it is quantified below, that even at today’s numbers for members of the species Homo-sapiens, which is close to seven billion: ‘‘the exhalations of breath and other gaseous emissions [by people] their pets and their livestock, are responsible for 23% of all greenhouse gas emissions’’ [2]. Ecologically and thermodynamically human numbers are at odds with the maintenance of biospheric equilibrium at the life tolerating level which has persisted for millenia. So, some form of ‘cap’ on human population seems to be unavoidable. It is just not possible to address the problem of ‘repairing the planetary thermostat’ without confronting the issue of population. In addition to the elimination of fossil fuel use, the ‘repair’ cannot be affected without the restoration of many natural forest and marine ecosystems. Large parts of the planet will have to be returned to nature–an impossibility without human withdrawal. It is undisputed that in those parts of the world where population growth is most rapid (in Africa, Asia and South America: see Fig. 7.1b), greenhouse gas emissions are lower than in the industrialised nations [3]. In many developing countries, where explosive population growth is occurring today, emission rates still remain well short of the per capita levels of the rest of the world. On current trends, this will not continue for long, if their justifiable desires for ‘modern

7.2 Cures for Ecocide

147

Fig. 7.1 Comparative population growth figures for the continents of the globe

standards of living’ are to be assuaged. Technology can, as we shall see, provide a part of the solution, but a continuing loss of ecosystems will stall planetary recovery. The implication is that it is not possible to secure significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions without population stabilisation and eventually diminishment, as rapidly as can realistically be achieved, by educational and voluntary means.

148

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

So, is it possible to introduce measures which will secure population stabilisation in the short term and perhaps reduction in the longer term? The currently available statistics from the United Nations anticipate that global population will probably peak at between nine and ten billion, based on the optimistic assumption that fertility rates in every country on the planet will (as in Europe) converge at 1.85 children per woman (below the 2.1 replacement fertility level), and that most countries will achieve this target, or close to it, by 2050. This critical assumption, adopted relatively recently by demographers, is largely based on a mathematical formula, bolstered by some wishful thinking about cultural convergence as women (in particular) become more educated. It is certainly not impossible, given the nature of the assumptions involved, that global population could burgeon well beyond even current projections, which would be ecologically disastrous for the planet. Much more proactive efforts at halting population growth are needed and soon. Otherwise, the planet will do it for us. Given our current trajectory, the disruptions, hardship, and conflict caused by climate change induced weather variability, flooding and drought, will likely increase death rates (and decrease life expectancy) before declining fertility stabilizes population. It is for others to cogitate how human fertility, and hence human numbers, can be controlled. But the best course of action for both human well-being and climate policy would seem to entail a rapid directing of as many resources as possible toward reducing unwanted pregnancies [4], so that we can be sure of reaching stabilization at the very least. Statistical evidence indicates that almost half of all pregnancies in the United States, and one-third globally, are unintended. Clearly improvements are possible if rationality is brought to bear on the subject. This will require the confronting, by governments, of well established but spurious religious objections, both to the rehabilitation of population policies and family planning initiatives. These laudable and important activities have been irrationally attacked, shunned, and splintered in recent decades [4].

7.2.2 Abandonment of Fossil Fuels Non-equilibrium thermodynamics as we have seen, when it is applied to the ultimate complex system, namely the biosphere, clearly yields the diagnosis that mankind is displaying ecocidal tendencies. So is there a cure? Well perhaps there is given that the condition is mainly caused by a restricted range of eco-poisons— generically classed as fossil fuels. It is obvious that if our species can be weaned off using these substances, quickly and soon, the problem can begin to be alleviated. According to the IPCC 2007 report (figure SPM-5) the termination of all fossil fuel combustion from 2010 onwards would ensure that global warming would slow gradually and that as a consequence the global average surface temperature would not exceed a ‘safe’ 1C above the pre-industrial long term mean value. By 2100 the ‘patient’ will no longer be ‘feverish’. However, it should, perhaps, be noted that the direct contribution of humans, and domesticated animals

7.2 Cures for Ecocide

149

to the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is unlikely to have been incorporated into the climate simulations employed by the IPCC. Consequently the models may be optimistic. Unfortunately, immediate cessation of fossil fuel production would be not unlike the hasty withdrawal of an addict’s drug supply. It represents a quite impossible scenario, because the global economy and national economies would collapse, resulting in untold misery for mankind. A more palatable detoxification procedure, involving a fully planned and well resourced transition taking the global economy away from a dependence almost exclusively on fossil fuels to a reliance on a power supply system constructed almost entirely from renewable energy sources backed up by massive electrical storage facilities, is postulated in Chap. 8.

7.2.3 Demise of Global Capitalism The overwhelming evidence emanating from thermodynamics and ecology, as we have seen, appears to suggest that sustainability and capitalism are quite incompatible. The epitome of sustainability, a climax forest, is a highly diverse ecosystem which maximises energy use, creates negligible waste and harbours life over long periods of time. The capitalist economic system seeks short-term gain, is dependent on non-renewable energy and materials, is energy wasteful, pollutes the environment mercilessly, and participants must ‘grow or die’. It has been postulated that sustainability is an anti-Darwinian concept, while capitalism predicated on greed is more in accord with our ‘selfish genes’ [5]. The corollary is that sustainability, which as we have discovered in Sect. 4.3 reflects species cooperation within a climax ecosystem, must therefore be more akin to socialism—or is that an analogy too far? Mankind has made an ecologically dumb choice, it seems, by ditching more ‘natural’ socialist values for the rampant short-term capitalist growth which some have enjoyed over the past 30–40 years. In fact, the descent toward an American inspired version of consumer capitalism, which is now a global phenomenon, has been alarming. The anger which exists in some quarters at the current harmful economic trajectory has been expressed by John Perkins [6] as follows: We prefer to believe the myth that thousands of years of human social evolution has finally perfected the ideal economic system, rather than to face the fact that we have merely bought into a false concept and accepted it as gospel. We have convinced ourselves that all economic growth benefits humankind, and that the greater the growth, the more widespread the benefits. Finally, we have persuaded one another that the corollary to this concept is valid and morally just: that people who excel at stoking the fires of economic growth should be exalted, and rewarded, while those born at the fringes are available for exploitation. The real story is that we are living a lie.

Left leaning ‘progressives’ here in the UK, and elsewhere, prefer to continue living with this lie, it seems. Economic growth remains sacrosanct. They refuse to

150

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

address the fraught issue of sustainability, which is viewed by the political classes as electoral suicide, particularly in the USA where the corporatocracy has most to lose. Of course, this stratum of American society holds such a powerful influence, if not a stranglehold, in the corridors of power in Washington, that the issue remains unaddressed there. Unwinding the tentacles of modern capitalism, which is touched upon in Sect. 7.3, will evidently be difficult. Of course, the politicians are well aware that consumerism is popular. It feeds into some of humanities deepest instincts [7]. A wealth of evidence from consumer research and anthropology tends to suggest that humans imbue their artefacts and material possessions with social and psychological meaning. It seems undeniable that consumer goods deliver a symbolic language which facilitates communication about those aspects of life that really concerns us, namely family, friendships, community, identity and social status. These consumer goods boosted interactions reflect our participation in the life of society which in the broadest sense of the word implies prosperity [8]. The communicative power of material possessions is acutely identified in this amusing observation furnished by Belk [9], whose research is focused on the role of desire in consumer behaviour. In response to a question as to what fashion meant to him, one of his young subjects remarked ‘‘No one’s gonna spot you across a crowded room and say ‘‘Wow! Nice personality’’’’. The pertinent fact is that consumerism satisfies deeply embedded social imperatives for human beings and it will be difficult to unpick. On the other hand, modern consumption which is promoted by incessant and persuasive advertising, and glamorised by the media, has largely been lubricated by cheap credit. Consequently, it is likely to wither, as the global market withers, when cheap energy is no more. The currently favoured model of global capitalism has already demonstrated its fallacious core. As is pointed out in ‘Prosperity without Growth’ [10] in alluding to the period stretching from about 1990 to 2008 when the global market overreached itself and went out of control: The age of irresponsibility demonstrates a long-term blindness to the limitations of the material world. This blindness is evident in our inability to regulate financial markets as it is to our inability to protect natural resources and curtail ecological damage. Our ecological debts are as unstable as our financial debts. Neither is properly accounted for in the relentless pursuit of consumption growth.

It has been clear, that to protect economic growth the global community has been prepared to employ questionable measures, and in so doing, it has been quite unconcerned about the uncontrolled expansion of financial liabilities which this has necessitated. In much the same way it has consistently chosen to treat ecological liabilities in an unforgivably laissez-faire manner. At the time of writing, the disastrous, yet avoidable oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico immediately comes to mind. Of course, all of this is totally unsustainable in the long term. But even in the short term, the 2008 ‘credit crunch’ has shown us that we are already in unsustainable territory. Consequently, it is difficult not to conclude that current responses to this crisis, which are directed towards restoring the ‘status quo’, are

7.2 Cures for Ecocide

151

deeply cynical, since all the evidence points to the fact that they are doomed to fail.

7.3 Beyond Capitalism 7.3.1 Fossil Fuel Crunch As is made clear in Chap. 8 the technological know-how already exists whereby mankind can secure a rational and ordered transition from the fossil fuel era to the age of renewables. A traumatic disruption of civilised life need not be an inevitable consequence of the abandonment of fossil fuels. However, reliance on the capitalist global market system to make this change happen would be ill advised since it is likely to be ineffective. A free market of global reach was not instrumental to the building of the Great Wall, to the building of the Suez Canal, to defeating the Third Reich, to getting Sputnik into space, to getting men to the moon. In ‘Slow Reckoning’, Athanasiou puts it this way [11]: As awareness of biophysical limits increases it will become difficult to keep faith with small remedies. It is not impossible that soon ecological deterioration will routinely inspire echoes of William James’s call for a moral equivalent of war [12], only this time as a war of cooperation, a war to save the earth. That is what it will take [13].

The short time scale and the intensity of the effort required to phase out fossil fuels will call for a global mobilization of resources and man-power of ‘third world war’ proportions. The $3 trillion injected into the banks to mitigate the effects of the credit crunch of 2007/2008 would not be too far distant [14] from the kind of financial resources, which are likely to be required to avoid the ‘fossil fuel crunch’. Any rational assessment of the scale of the effort required makes it difficult not to presume that such a mobilization is achievable only by governments working in unison, and presumably through the agency of the UN. Several comprehensive studies have appeared in recent years in which mechanisms for financing the transition to renewables are examined and these generally advocate a classic Keynesian spending programme [10]—sometimes referred to as a ‘green new deal’, in acknowledgment of the New Deal pioneered by Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s. This deal was evolved to lubricate a transition for the US economy, in order to lift it out of the effects of the ‘great depression’. It entailed massive financial investment in public sector modernisation, not unlike the investment strategy now needed in order to create a global electrical power industry based on renewable sources of energy. The aim would be to facilitate the birth of the new age of renewables, by smoothing the path to the inevitable, and not too far distant, energy transformation which civilisation must face, moving it away from dependence on fossil fuels towards reliance on renewables. It is interesting and encouraging to note that early in 2009 a strong international consensus began to emerge in support of the very simple idea that economic

152

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

recovery, following the 2007/2008 credit crunch, demands investment. Identifiable spending proposals generally converge on the targeting of available funds on energy security, low-carbon infrastructures and ecological protection. Furthermore, in a report published towards the end of 2008, the Deutsche Bank identified a ‘green sweet spot’ for stimulus spending, consisting of investment in energy efficient buildings, in renewable power and the electricity grid, and in electrified public transport [10]. Hopefully initiatives like these will gain support and hence acquire the political visibility to influence decision makers around the world.

7.3.2 Capitalism and Sustainability Beyond the transition years, civilization will have to evolve globally to accommodate a much smaller stable population. The ideal number is usually reckoned to be in the region of one or two billion [15]. Economic activity between nations and different parts of the world will obviously remain—but will humanity remain wedded to some version of capitalism? Even as a layman on economic matters, but with an obvious interest in knowing how human economic activity impinges on the ‘health’ of the earth, it is apparent that the many deficiencies of modern capitalism are beginning to be addressed. Debates as to how a capitalist system can, or cannot, deliver a sustainable future for mankind, are already well joined [10, 16–19]. Jonathan Porritt [16] takes an optimistic view suggesting: that it is still possible for capitalism today to self-correct (or, more accurately, to be corrected) before traumatic collapse.

On the other hand Kovel [19] is of a more gloomy persuasion, as the title of his book attests. He is quoted as observing: Growing numbers of people are beginning to realise that capitalism is the uncontrollable force driving our ecological crisis, only to become frozen in their tracks by the awesome implications of this insight.

Non-equilibrium thermodynamics, when applied to human economic activity (Sect. 5.4), furnishes clear evidence that classical economic systems, and in particular capitalism, which espouse ideas such as decoupling from the real word, infinite sources and sinks, and unlimited growth, are contrary to natural physical laws. Alternatively, any advanced civilisation, in the post fossil fuel era with sustainability as its long term goal, must embrace an economic system that operates in accordance with such laws. The fundamental problem with capitalism is not that individual companies and corporations succeed by expanding–this is natural, just as organisms within a climax ecosystem grow if energy is available to them–but that the economy as a whole must continue to grow. This is not natural—an eco-system stabilises at the climax level once all energy sources have been commandeered by the diverse forms of life which it supports. So why does a capitalist economy depend so

7.3 Beyond Capitalism

153

fundamentally on growth? The answer is quite simple: it relies on private investors for its financial support and these investors seek a worthwhile return on their investment. If money flow in the economic system is compared to energy flow in an eco-system then money expansion is unnatural. While organisms convert radiant energy from the sun to chemical energy in biomass, which is then accessed by other organisms and modified again repeatedly, it is important to stress that no overall growth in energy, above the solar supply, occurs, since this would violate the first law. Unlike a climax ecosystem which is robust, a capitalist economic system is fragile. Its ‘health’ is dependent on capricious and fickle ‘investor confidence’. Self evidently if such speculators do not foresee a meaningful return on their investment, commensurate with the risk that they perceive they are taking, then they will withdraw their stake. In the highly interconnected world of today, the nervousness of just a few investors can be highly infectious and lead to investor panic. The end result is a recession, which is much more damaging for workers, who have staked not just money, but their lives, in the capitalist system, than for the investors who at worst simply lose some of their original stake. The system is logically indefensible. Curiously, mainstream classical economists defend the system by turning this argument on its head. They would contend that we cannot create jobs, finance schools, maintain hospitals etc., unless we secure and sustain a healthy capitalist system, which tends to assume there is no alternative to capitalism? The maintenance of investor confidence which is the bedrock of a successful capitalist economy requires a steady expansion of consumption. If sales are not buoyant our nervous investors lose confidence. This, as David Schweickart [18] observes: means that a healthy capitalism requires what would doubtless strike a visitor from another planet (or from a pre-capitalist society) as exceedingly strange–a massive, privatelyfinanced effort to persuade people to consume what they might otherwise find unnecessary.

While those who advocate capitalism, and those who benefit from it, generally abhor government interference, they cannot survive without it. Governments must be prepared to borrow massively in order to stimulate the economy when recession looms. ‘Fiscal responsibility’, needless to say, goes out the window, no matter how conservative the government, when people stop buying. The losers in the capitalist system lose a second time by suffering tax increases. It is a system which is inimical to ‘the man in the street’ but all over the world he votes for it, because he is presented with no acceptable alternative! As we have already seen, the problem is not simply ‘growth’. A fully functioning capitalist economy depends, not just on rising consumption, but on a steady rate of growth. Investors panic when the growth rate declines. But a steady rate of growth, so essential to a vibrant system, implies exponential growth, and some simple mathematical calculations reveals the absurdity of this requirement. If an economy grows typically 3%/year consumption doubles every 24 years and this

154

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

translates into an inconceivable increase in consumption of 16 times its original starting level over the course of a century. Numbers such as these are utterly incompatible with our existence on a finite earth. The irrationality of capitalism seems undeniable—except to an old school economist. So surely there has to be something better? The kernel of an idea of ‘something better’ has been around for some time, having been enunciated by K.E Boulding [20], over 40 years ago. Needless to say his perceptive analysis hardly registered on the consciousness of his colleagues in the mainstream economic community. In describing the shift from a ‘cowboy economy’, which characterised many national economies 40 years ago, and the global economy today, to a resource limited ‘spaceman economy’, he observed that ‘‘[cowboys were] symbolic of the illimitable plains and also associated with reckless, exploitative, romantic and violent behaviour, which is characteristic of open societies’’. On the other hand he noted that the spaceman economy would lack ‘‘unlimited reservoirs of anything either for extraction or pollution… The difference between the two types of economy becomes apparent in the attitude toward consumption. In the cowboy economy consumption is regarded as a good thing and production likewise’’. In the spaceman economy he avers that the measure of success ‘‘is not production and consumption at all, but the nature, extent, quality and complexity of the total capital stock, including in this, the state of human bodies and minds …’’.

7.3.3 Democratic Economy Any economic replacement to capitalism has to be (a) economically viable, (b) independent of a steady growth rate for its stability, and (c) conducive to the kind of entrepreneurial innovation which we will need to achieve a smooth transition to an economy powered by renewables. Does such an alternative exist? The answer, which I find to be most satisfactory, and which I have chosen to rehearse below, originates with Schweickart [18]. His reply is a clear yes. In his view, theoretical analysis, based on reliable empirical evidence, strongly buttresses the notion that a truly democratic economy, as he terms it, could fulfil the above criteria. The term ‘market economy’ is often used as a synonym for capitalism, by both proponents and critics, but this is not really appropriate. Rather, capitalism should be viewed of as a blend of three distinct kinds of markets. In short, these are markets for goods and services, labour markets and financial markets. It is sensible to retain the markets for goods and services, certainly at the local level, since people will always require to trade, in any imaginable future, but democratisation of the other two offers real benefits. In the case of labour the change would mean, rather obviously, running businesses democratically. Such businesses are in effect communities of workers. They are not, as they are now, legal entities that can be bought or sold. Management is appointed by a worker council elected by the workforce, one-person, one-vote. Although individually they are democratic, these

7.3 Beyond Capitalism

155

enterprises, nevertheless, compete with one another in the market for goods and services. There is no reason not to expect such enterprises to be efficient. Workers, although they may not receive wages, would be rewarded with a specified share of the trading community’s profit. Hence everyone would have a direct, tangible financial stake in their enterprise performing well. Every worker is motivated, not only to work efficiently, but to monitor co-workers—thus reducing the need for external supervision. It is not surprising, then, that empirical studies that compare democratic community enterprises to comparable capitalist firms consistently find the former perform at least as well as the latter, and often better [16]. Of course, neo-conservatives, capitalists, and those attached to the business world, whose default position is that such organisations, being within the public sector, are bound to be incorrigibly inefficient, wasteful and over-manned, would contend that the Schweickart premise can never work. But, as an individual who has toiled since 1973 in a ‘democratic’ UK university, I don’t feel this and neither, as far as I can ascertain, do my colleagues. Any university has to be competitive in attracting students and research funding, in both the UK, and the EU context, to survive. Many also endeavour to be competitive in a global sense. So, in my experience the notion of workers avidly striving for success, despite the absence of capitalist financial incentives, is actually not as weird as the conservative controlled media in the industrialised world would have their readers believe! While democratic organisations and capitalist firms are equally motivated to produce efficiently and to satisfy consumer desires, the interesting difference is that they deviate significantly in their orientation toward growth. The requirement to achieve attractive returns for shareholders means that when conditions are favourable, capitalist firms are obliged to expand production and maximise profit by economies of scale. Democratic organisations, on the other hand, with no shareholders to satisfy, will choose to increase production to satisfy demand by expanding worker numbers, aiming at maximizing profit per worker. That is to say, if the owners of a capitalist firm can make £X under present conditions, they can make £2X by doubling production. But if a democratic firm doubles its output, it doubles its workforce, leaving its per-capita income relatively unchanged. Schweickart suggests that: ‘‘This is an enormously important structural difference, with implications that go well beyond environmental concerns’’. Here, we shall focus on those that have relevance to the question of sustainability. In our democratic system competition in the ‘market’ will remain meaningful and exhilarating without being ruthless. Organisations will compete for a fair share of the market, but will not seek to dominate it. This means that democratic trading communities—when in competition with others—will not face the ‘grow or die’ imperative that capitalist firms experience. This is precisely the position which applies to competing universities, and any other non-shareholder organisations, which are in competition with each other. Neither greed nor fear can distort working relations the way that it does in unfettered capitalist systems. No matter how greedy workers may be, they cannot

156

7 Dismantling the Fossil Fuel Era

increase their rewards simply by encouraging or enforcing expansion at the expense of competitors, as greedy shareholders would do, in a capitalist system. Democratic firms require economies of scale, which take time to engineer, in order to procure significant improvements in worker rewards. By the same token, participants in democratic trading do not have to worry too much about being driven out of business by a more innovative or efficient rival. They have more time to adjust, and to acquire whatever successful innovations their rival has introduced. (Non-profit institutions are similar to democratic firms in this regard. Successful universities, as already noted, do not keep expanding. They compete for students, but they do not drive their competitors out of business by grabbing their rivals’ market share. When educational innovations occur, they tend to spread, administrators being under pressure to adopt ‘best practices’.) An additional advantage of the proposed system relates to consumerism and the need to suppress its grip in a world which aims to be sustainable. When innovation brings about productivity gains, workers can be offered the option of extra freetime or leisure instead of increased income, which would normally lead to higher consumption. This leisure option is virtually non-existent in any capitalist firm. Private company owners do not increase their profits by allowing their employees to work less for the same pay. But if excess consumption and growing consumerism is the serious environmental threat that we know it is, and if market competition is essential to an efficiently functioning economy, then it is vital to have a system that offers incentives to its businesses that do not lead to unrestrained consumerism. As intimated earlier, democratisation should also be applied to investment. The impetus for making effective changes, which is difficult to elaborate upon in a few paragraphs [18], is mainly to ensure that any modified system must not depend on the ‘irrational responses’ and ‘herd instincts’ of private investors—and on the incredibly opaque financial instruments that banks and institutions have created to maintain economic stability. According to Schweickart: ‘‘Alternatives are really not so hard to imagine, although these possibilities are not discussed in polite company’’. The solution is to generate investment funds by taxing enterprises at the national level (a flat-rate capital-assets tax is suggested as being optimal), then returning the proceeds to predetermined regions on a per-capita basis to be reinvested in the local economy. Some consequences of this structural change are inevitable and arguably beneficial. Investors will no longer need to be kept happy for fear of recession. There will be no need to worry about capital flight because investment capital will be held by governments. Regions will no longer compete for capital since they will get their fair share every year. Investment funds can be channelled into projects consistent with the wishes of the citizenry. The inference which can be gleaned from the writings of Schweickart and others is that ecological sustainability can at least be consistent with a market economy, but that we need to get beyond capitalism. It is quite irrational to rely on an economic system that must continually grow to remain healthy [10]. The social market economy outlined above, in addition to being economically viable, also has

7.3 Beyond Capitalism

157

the potential to be, as it must to ensure sustainability, thermodynamically sound by eschewing the notion of ‘the infinite planet’. As Porritt [16] puts it—we surely need: an evolved, intelligent and elegant form of capitalism that puts the Earth at its very centre (as our one and only world) and ensures that all people are its beneficiaries in recognition of our unavoidable interdependence.

References 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20.

Daly H (1996) Beyond growth. Beacon Press, Boston Lovelock J (2009) The fight to get aboard lifeboat UK. The Sunday Times, UK, 8th February Flannery T (2005) The weather makers. Penguin Books Ltd, London Ehrlich PL, Ehrlich AH (2008) The dominant animal. Island Press, Shearwater Books, Washington Dawkins R (1989) The selfish gene. Oxford University Press, Oxford Perkins J (2004) Confessions of an economic hit-man. Berret-Keohler, San Francisco Bauman Z (2007) Consuming life. Cambridge Polity Press, Cambridge Berger P (1969) The sacred canopy—elements of a sociological theory of religion. Anchor Books, New York Belk R, Guliz G, Soren A (2003) The fire of desire—a multi-sited inquiry into consumer passion. J Consumer Res 30:325–351 Sustainable Development Commission (2009) ‘‘Prosperity without Growth’’ Athanasiou A (1996) Slow reckoning. Secker & Warburg, London Bressand F et al. (2007) Curbing global energy demand growth:the energy productivety opportunity. McKinsey Global Institute, May Report James W (1949) The moral equivalent of war. Essays of Faith and Morals, Longman Green, New York Sangster AJ (2010) Energy for a warming world. Springer, London Lovelock J (2006) The revenge of gaia. Penguin Books, London Porritt J (2008) Capitalism: as if the world matters. Earthscan, London Hawken P, Lovins A, Lovins PH (1999) Natural capitalism: creating the next industrial revolution. Little Brown & Co, Boston Schweickart D (2002) After capitalism: new critical theory. Rowmann & Littlefield, New York Kovel J (2007) The energy of nature: the end of capitalism or the end of the world. Zed Books, London Boulding KE (1966) The economics of the coming space ship earth. In: Jarrett H, Hopkins J (eds) Environmental quality in a growing economy. University Press, Baltimore, pp 3–14

Chapter 8

Sustainable Technologies Most geologists now believe that Earth’s atmosphere is essentially the Earth’s thermostat over long periods of geological time Geoffrey Boulton The Earth’s thermostat is a complex and delicate mechanism, at the heart of which lies carbon dioxide, a colourless and odourless gas Tim Flannery It would indeed be the ultimate tragedy if the history of the human race proved to be nothing more noble than the story of an ape playing with a box of matches on a petrol dump William David Ormsby Gore

Many of the denizens of the industrialized world, who have contemplated climate change and accept that it is anthropogenic in origin, would probably hold the opinion that since it has been caused by technology, we need look no further than technology for salvation. Even some in the USA may do so, but there, few are prepared to admit to the existence of global warming. This technological focus assumes that the phenomenon is wholly attributable to the prolific and inefficient combustion of fossil fuels. But it is not, as we have seen. Furthermore, it is not just climate change that threatens us, but a steady depletion of resources. One does not have to be: a rocket scientist to see that increased population size, all else being equal, means more greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere and thus more rapid climate change, more tropical forests cut down, more traffic jams, and more extensive and intensive agriculture.

While the disappearance of natural gas, oil and coal, can be welcomed because other less harmful energy sources exist, this is not true of fresh air and water, fertile soil and a host of minerals. For example, impending shortages are predicted for copper, tin, antimony, zinc, and uranium to name but a few. But warming is also caused by the destruction of the rain forests and other natural land and ocean habitats, which is resulting in an accelerating loss of biodiversity, and loss of fertile top soil by flooding and desertification. These are all caused by human activities. So, it is exceedingly difficult to dodge the import of troubling evidence which consistently indicates that there are too many of us, using too much, and using it much too rapidly. The human race, and civilization, has reached this impasse, not just because of an out-of-control technology juggernaut, but because of deep cultural prejudices, touched upon in Chap. 6. Climate change is clearly exacerbated by fossil fuel consumption, which has emerged as the most critical symptom of a growth binge largely founded on, and supported by, a temporary bonanza of cheap hydrocarbon energy. However, the core of the problem remains embedded in cultural attitudes to Earth and the biosphere, and unless this is addressed, run-away global warming is our future.

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_8, Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

159

160

8 Sustainable Technologies

Tackling the global warming issue means forsaking economic growth, and abandoning many religious and cultural prejudices in order to embark on a sustained period of contraction for our species, and retrenchment for human civilization. Given the basic dictates of ecology and thermodynamics, which emphasize the fundamental relationships between population, resources and carrying capacity, the journey that mankind has to make could not be clearer. Many still cling to the idea of a simple technofix, but as the well known cliché has it, they are failing to see the wood for the trees. Of course the shift to minimally polluting technologies must be part of our response to climate change and we will evaluate the options below. Nevertheless the warnings cannot be ignored that it is possibly even more important to seek changes in attitudes, habits and expectations [1] if an acceptance of the need for concerted human action to counter the climate change threat is to be secured. As we have seen, a fundamental reworking of economic policies and financial institutions is already being planned. It preaches that endless growth should no longer be seen as good, or even possible.

8.1 Resetting the Thermostat for Plus Two Degrees 8.1.1 The Thermodynamic Limit A 2C rise in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has, on the basis of well established scientific evidence, long been considered to be potentially dangerous for the biosphere. It is adjudged to be a critical level at which unstoppable nonlinear processes could be triggered. If this happened, future generations could see the climate accelerate towards a hot epoch which may be too hot for the survival of many mammals including mankind. So 2C is generally acknowledged as representing a ‘line in the sand’ which we should strenuously resist crossing. But, how do we ensure compliance without just immediately prohibiting fossil fuel combustion, which, even if it were possible, would be economically ruinous? The approach, which has been followed so far by the United Nations and national governments, has been the setting of goals, for greenhouse gas emission reductions by targeted nations usually by a specified date in the future. Generally the aim is to control the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, concentration levels are a poor guide to progress. The thermodynamics dictate that we need to restrict the total volume of greenhouse gases released by fossil fuel combustion. This includes those gases which have already been added to the atmosphere since the time of the industrial revolution, and those which will be introduced by further emissions into the distant future [2]. Current targets have nothing to say about the total accumulated amount of carbon which can prudently be exhausted into the atmosphere. Yet this controllable manifestation of the fossil fuel driven global economy is much more critical to the warming process.

8.1 Resetting the Thermostat for Plus Two Degrees

161

This topic has been addressed in two papers which were recently published in Nature [3, 4]. By examining the thermodynamics of warming, they have clarified and emphasised the fact that it is not greenhouse gas concentration today or tomorrow which governs the final temperature to which the earth’s biosystem will climb if we continue burning fossil fuels, but the total accumulated carbon in the atmosphere due to continued combustion for the next 50, 100, 200 years—or however long we have left! This means that to avoid triggering the positive feedback effects, which are predicted to follow if the two degrees limit to global warming is breached, the accumulated total has an upper bound. A sound knowledge of this ceiling is necessary if an orderly reduction in fossil fuel use by the global economic system is to be achieved. On the basis of thorough climate modelling of the biosphere, incorporating thermodynamics, hydrology and interactive carbon cycling, Allen et al. [3], suggest that if no more than 1000 billion tonnes of carbon were released between 1750 and 2050, we would have better than a 25% chance of not exceeding two degrees by 2100 and beyond. Since we have already released 500 billion tonnes (500 Gigatonnes = 500 Gt) of carbon through combustion in the past 250 years we are restricted to the same again in the next 40 years. This seems generous but given the exponential rate of growth in fossil fuel combustion, it is not. It is worth noting that 500 billion tonnes of carbon when combusted in air produces 1850 Gt of CO2. Knowing how much of the fossil fuel hoard we can burn in total without overstepping the +2C barrier, obviously tells us how much of the remaining, currently securely sequestered ‘ancient sunshine’, we can prudently extract and incinerate. If there is an unusable remainder and simple calculations show that there is, the delicate question for some then arises, of how on earth will the human race tolerate the thought of leaving billions of tonnes of perfectly serviceable energy untouched in the planetary crust? The figures are presented below, and are inspired by an essay on this topic contributed by George Monbiot [5]. Reserves of fossil fuels buried in the planet’s crust are well tabulated in statistical records [6], although there may be some issues of accuracy given the inherent secretiveness of the industry. The term ‘reserves’, specifically refers to that part of the earth’s fossil fuel resources, which has been clearly identified and quantified. However, taking the given figures at face value, global reserves of coal amount to 848 billion tonnes, where a tonne equates to 1000 kg. Global reserves of natural gas are estimated to amount to 177,000 billion cubic metres, while global reserves of crude oil are presented as being 162 billion tonnes. Unconventional sources of fossil fuel, such as tar sands, oil shales, bitumens and methane hydrates, as well as liquid natural gas resources could add a little to these figures but not enough to materially influence the global sum. On average, one tonne of coal contains 746 kg of carbon while one cubic metre of natural gas can be presumed to yield 0.49 kg of carbon. For oil the carbon released to the atmosphere is less certain, because not all users of the refined product are equally efficient. But a rough calculation based on figures taken from Ref. [7] suggests that the combusting of a barrel of oil releases 320 kg of CO2. Depending on the density of the oil, there are approximately 7

162

8 Sustainable Technologies

barrels to the tonne, which gives a figure of 2240 kg CO2, or 610 kg of carbon per tonne. We can therefore conclude that the carbon content of the known reserves of fossil fuels (CCF) is the sum of the content for coal (CCC) plus the content for gas (CCG) plus the content for oil (CCO). Expressing these in a common unit gives: CCC ¼ 848 109 0:746 ¼ 633 109 kg CCG ¼ 177; 000 109 0:00049 ¼ 87 109 kg CCO ¼ 162 109 0:610 ¼ 99 109 kg Hence CCF ¼ CCC þ CCG þ CCO ¼ 819 109 kg ¼ 819 billion tonnes: If we adopt Allen’s limit of 500 billion tonnes of carbon release between 2000 and 2050, this equates to burning no more than 60% of the known reserves, less of course what we have already burnt between 2000 and now (2010), can be combusted during mankind’s remaining occupancy of planet Earth. A massive 40% will have to be left permanently untouched and sequestered safely below ground! The interesting questions that this presents is why are power companies continuing to prospect for gas, oil and coal in ecologically sensitive and dangerously difficult locations, given that if sense prevails, the finds will be deemed unusable? Also, which fossil fuel reserves will the industrialised and industrialising worlds choose to leave in the ground, and how can we demand that the search for fossil fuels ends? How does mankind proceed towards an equable process of closing down their production? These are fraught questions which are not even on the political agenda in 2010!

8.1.2 Thermostatic Malfunction The global thermostat functions through the cycling of carbon, the hydrological cycle, and other thermodynamic and climatic trends. Carbon cycles continuously from the atmosphere to the oceans, and from the atmosphere into vegetation (*5 year turnover) and the soil (*25 year turnover), and thence back to the atmosphere, as is illustrated in Fig. 8.1a. The schematic also shows that very large carbon concentrations reside in surface water of the oceans and the carbon flux between deep and surface water is very significant [8]. This mechanism provides a sink for much of mankind’s emissions. During the 1990’s anthropogenic carbon emissions into the atmosphere amounted to about 13.5 Gigatonnes per year (Gt/yr) which compares with 102 Gt/yr from the oceans and another 50 Gt/yr from decaying vegetation. However, the ocean and biosphere emissions are later reabsorbed, along with some of the anthropogenic CO2. The biosphere [9] (soil and vegetation) takes a net 1.1–2.9 Gt/yr, the oceans 0.8–2.6 Gt/yr. In 2009 it is estimated, from measurements of the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, that roughly 4.2 Gt/yr of carbon dioxide was added to the atmosphere, unbalanced by the operation of the natural biospheric sinks. As time passes it is surmised that

8.1 Resetting the Thermostat for Plus Two Degrees

163

Fig. 8.1 Global carbon cycles for pre- and post- fossil fuel biospheres assuming a population of just under 7 billion. The figures (Gt/year) represent purely the anthropogenic portion of the carbon cycle. a Fossil fuel era. b Post fossil fuel era; no population reduction Carbon flows: In a up arrows to the left represent plant respiration, deforestation, human and animal respiration, fossil fuel burning: in the centre the cycle includes oceanic photosynthesis and respiration: on the right the down arrow represents plant photosynthesis: the below surface arrows suggest carbon flow due sinking organic matter and to fossilisation to form oil wells and coal seams. In b the contribution from fossil fuel combustion is removed

these sinks will become saturated or degraded and this atmospheric problem will accelerate unless humanity makes serious cuts in its emissions. Prior to the industrial revolution, according to ice core and other proxy records, the earth’s atmosphere had maintained for millennia the remarkably stable level for CO2 concentration of 280 ppmv. Since we know the volume of the atmosphere and since we can determine the gas concentrations at various altitudes with a high degree of accuracy, it is not difficult to demonstrate that this concentration equates to 590 Gt of CO2. (1 ppmv of CO2 = 2.11 Gt [10]). However, after 200 years of industrialisation and fossil fuel combustion, in order to support a rapidly expanding human population, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (in 2010) has climbed to 383 ppmv. This implies that today the atmosphere contains 808 Gt of CO2. Obviously not all of the CO2 released by burning 500 Gt of fossil fuel carbon accumulates in the atmosphere. The biospheric ‘thermostat’ for the fossil fuel era is depicted graphically in Fig. 8.1a, which is based on a version [8] first published in 1999. It showed a slightly lower number of 750 Gt for atmospheric CO2. As we have seen, to avoid by 2100 a rise of 2C in global average temperature, above pre-industrial levels, Allen suggests that the cumulative total of carbon which can be released to the biosphere by combustion is 500 Gt. Such a burn, over an extended period, if performed within a profile which demands significant reductions in carbon emissions to the atmosphere after 2030, would raise the CO2 concentration level [3] to a peak of about 490 ppmv, allowing for modelling uncertainties which are not insignificant. This equates to an increase in atmospheric CO2 to almost 1000 Gt. These figures are fully in accordance with

164

8 Sustainable Technologies

IPCC and other sources, where global temperature increases have been related to greenhouse gas concentrations, of this ‘ball park’ magnitude, in the atmosphere. In fact according to the latest science, it seems not to matter, given the inertia of the bio-system, whether the 1000 Gt of emissions occur all at once [11, 12] or gradually [13] the temperature rise after an extended period of 100 or more years will still be 2C. The worrying aspect of future projections, using earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMIC’s) [11], or more computationally intensive simulations such as general circulation models (GCM’s) [13], is that global temperature reduction is likely to be extremely sluggish. Even if emissions associated with fossil fuel combustion totally ceased by 2050, with CO2 concentrations at about 500 ppmv, the global average temperature rise above pre-industrial levels is predicted to equal or exceed 2C for at least another century. This inertia in the earth system thermostat, which is not too surprising, merely emphases the importance of achieving the 2C target, so avoiding exposing the system to raised temperatures over an extended period of time, with the high probability of triggering run-away effects. Some might argue that this biosystem inertia is a good reason to insist on a much more conservative target. Returning to the problem of the erroneous earth system thermostat—of the 13.5 Gt of CO2 emitted each year to the atmosphere due to human activity, almost half (*5.5 Gt/yr) emanated from the direct burning of fossil fuels [6]. Virtually all of this fossil fuel sourced CO2 is directly added to the atmosphere as Fig. 8.1a indicates, and this is easily accommodated into climate models. The remaining 8 Gt/yr is generated by all other human activities from breathing and rearing domestic animals, to clearing forests for farming and living space. A person breathes out something like 0.9 kg of CO2 daily, though the figures obviously depend on age, and fitness. If that figure is taken as representative of humans, it is not difficult to calculate that a global population of 6 billion (which it was about 10 years ago in 2000) equates to a combined exhalation rate of approximately 2 Gt/yr. This is clearly small by comparison with the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, as illustrated in Fig. 8.1a. These aggregate to almost 211 Gt/yr. But, people are not the only creatures breathing out CO2, and people currently require an awful lot of farm animals to survive and the company of domestic animals to remain sane. This ‘other human activity’ is largely included in models through ‘vegetation’ algorithms. Changes wrought by humans are modelled through the ability or otherwise of ‘vegetation’ to draw down atmospheric CO2, through the influence of ‘vegetation’ on albedo, and through its effect on hydrology. Logically if atmospheric CO2 has remained essentially stable at 280 ppmv for millennia before the industrial revolution, as records indicate, we can assume that the natural world (minus humans, domestic animals and farming) is contributing nothing to the current growth in greenhouse gas concentration. In a recent publication [14] James Lovelock has estimated that 23% of the yearly flux of CO2 into the atmosphere is generated by the exhalations of humans, farm animals, and pets. We can conclude, therefore, that of the 8 Gt/yr of yearly CO2 emissions attributable to human activities, 3.1 Gt is due to exhalations, while 4.9 Gt is associated

8.1 Resetting the Thermostat for Plus Two Degrees

165

with forest clearances, mono-culture agricultural practices, and concreted cityscapes and town-scapes, which reduce carbon absorption over otherwise fertile areas of the globe. These would originally have been efficient sinks. Animals, of course, also emit methane which is sixty times more effective in trapping heat than CO2, and the use of nitrogen based fertilizers produces nitrous oxide a greenhouse gas which is 270 times more efficient than CO2. Fortunately these greenhouse gases are much less long lasting in the atmosphere than CO2.

8.1.3 Thermostatic Correction On the basis of the preceding discussion, one element of the battle to gain control of, and to correct, the earth system ‘thermostat’ is clear. The thermostat has to be reset at a realistically achievable level. On all the available evidence, highlighted by the continued human denial of global warming, modern industrialised civilizations are not ready to contemplate giving up their fossil fuel addiction, and certainly not any time soon. The balance between industrial realism and scientific disquiet seems to lie in attempting to stabilize average global temperature at the level of +2C relative to the pre-industrial setting. As we have seen this means that from now and into perpetuity we can incinerate no more than 60% of known fossil fuel reserves. Furthermore, we must plan to severely cut greenhouse gas emission after 2030 so that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 peaks at just less than 500 ppmv. It is a scenario which in its predicted outcome is not unlike the IPCC projection (B1) illustrated in Fig. 4.4. It should give mankind the time and enough fossil fuel energy to embark on engineering the renewables revolution. How this might be progressed is pondered from a purely technological perspective in the next section. Restoration of the earth system thermostat cannot be realised without also addressing the population issue. As we have seen, just by existing 6 billion humans contribute 2 Gt/yr of CO2 to the atmosphere, which means that 6 Gt/yr has to be generated simply to keep them housed and in food. For the current population magnitude of almost 7 billion in 2010, then on a proportional basis this 17% increase from the 1990’s will add 1.17 9 3.1 ? 4.9 = 8.5 Gt/yr (as indicated in Fig. 8.1b) of atmospheric carbon, even if fossil fuel combustion is completely terminated. It is assumed for simplicity that the infra-structure element of the equation is much less susceptible to population changes. In the figure the carbon cycle is now in balance, with the ocean and other sinks drawing down completely the emissions of a renewables based civilization. This might seem like ‘problem solved’! But it isn’t–it has just been transferred to the oceans which are absorbing much more CO2 than is natural. It is already well documented that increased acidification of the oceans is having a drastic affect on marine organisms at the foot of the food chain. In 2004 Angus Atkinson of the British Antarctic Survey [15] was prompted to observe in relation to the marine food chain: These changes among key species have profound implications for the Southern Ocean food web. Penguins, albatrosses, seals and whales…..are prone to krill shortages

166

8 Sustainable Technologies

Furthermore, if the population rises to 9 billion by 2050 as it surely will do if current trends continue, then on a pro rata basis this 50% population rise will boost emissions to 9.55 Gt/yr, and carbon cycle balance is lost, despite the elimination of fossil fuels. In thermodynamic terms eliminating fossil fuel combustion by this time without addressing population represents only a partial adjustment of the global ‘thermostat’. While the ‘thermostat’ is no longer continuing to close the ‘greenhouse’ vents, it is still stuck on too high a setting. In IPCC terms [16] the scenario in Fig. 8.1b is equivalent to the ‘constant composition commitment’, but set at the 2050 level–resulting in a global temperature rise of well over 2C into the distant future (2100 and beyond). To adhere to the +2C target it will be essential to end population growth, and start bringing it down to a level which permits the restoration of the terrestrial and marine sinks which extract greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. On land this means re-establishing natural environments and biodiversity, in the oceans in means reducing acidification and hence allowing biodiversity to flourish. It is worth noting, that currently, nearly 40% of all land-based photosynthetic capability has been appropriated by human beings. In the United States more than half of the energy captured by photosynthesis is diverted to human use. By 2050, mankind will have taken over all the prime real estate on this planet. The rest of nature will be forced to make do with what little is left. Plainly, continued loss of species and persistent ecosystem stress seems to be the future. It is a trend that is inimical to any attempt to fully restore the earth system thermostat.

8.2 Breaking the Fossil Fuel Habit The conundrum for mankind represented by global warming is undoubtedly exacerbated by the ever expanding global population. Nevertheless, by coordinated action at the world level it remains possible, if we are not too dilatory, to ‘reset the greenhouse thermostat’ just enough to avoid disaster. It implies drastically curtailing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide so that we dodge breaching the cumulative carbon limit established above. This will dictate a serious throttling of fossil fuel production within the next 25–30 years. Full thermostat restoration will also entail the widespread re-introduction across the planet of bio-diverse ecosystems such as the rain forests. This latter goal will be immensely difficult without a significant reduction in population and a wholesale adoption of vegetarianism. The obvious, but uninformed, response to the ‘warming’ dilemma, which at the present time (2010) is strongly being pushed by the financial community and by our political leaders, is a switch away from our reliance on fossil fuels through the agency of a market led expansion of power generation from sustainable resources backed by greenhouse gas emission targets. But, as we have seen it will take much more than ‘the market’. The resources that are generally cited are in two categories: namely business-as-usual fixes such as ‘clean coal’, hydrogen and biomass,

8.2 Breaking the Fossil Fuel Habit

167

and the so called renewables, such as wind-power, wave-power, tidal-power, hydro-electric power, solar-power and geo-thermal power. Nuclear power is usually included in the ‘mix’ as a renewable but it is not, unless scientists can crack the nuclear fusion riddle, and that seems to be unlikely in the foreseeable future. Also, biomass is trumpeted as a ‘fix’ in some quarters, but has been excluded from further examination here because it is not really a viable solution using land based crops, if the swelling population of the planet continues to demand to be fed [17]. Europe has already announced (in 2008) cut-backs in recent targets for the percentage of vehicle fuels which should comprise bio-fuel. Seaweed cultivation has recently been mooted as a source of bio-mass but it is highly unlikely to be providing serious quantities of fuel by 2030, when the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable power sources will have to be well advanced.

8.2.1 Technofixes A third category of technology for averting global warming also exists–namely geoengineering or so called technofixes. These are ingenious, but fanciful, notions of alleviating global warming, which generally entail reflecting the suns rays back into space. While probably devised for the best of reasons, nevertheless they represent, quite frankly, rather inappropriate and misguided applications of geo-engineering. In this geo-engineering category the following schemes have been well reported: seeding space with 20 trillion metre-sized optically reflective mirrors [18]; seeding stratocumulus clouds over the oceans to make them whiter by spraying huge volumes of sea water into the upper atmosphere [19]; introducing sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight using high flying aircraft [20]. For mankind to pursue the application of any of these, and others, would be not unlike the crew of a ship on the high seas, which is listing dangerously due to a shifting cargo, and instead of correcting the problem by applying all their effort into restoring the cargo to its original position, they choose to try to counteract the list by following the much more risky course of attaching novel list-compensating bow planes to the keel of the ship. Needless to say, some advocated techno-fixes are rather too risky to be treated seriously. As Lovelock [14] has observed ‘‘geo-engineering schemes could create new problems, which would require a new fix–potentially trapping Earth into a cycle of problem and solution from which there was no escape’’.

8.2.2 Carbon Capture and Sequestration Governments around the globe have the responsibility to satisfy the needs of their large and growing populations, and not surprisingly they do so in a manner which ensures they are elected or stay in power. Mostly they achieve this aim by

168

8 Sustainable Technologies

reassuring their citizens that they will have access to what they all seem to want, if they don’t already have it, namely developed-world standards of living, which generally equates with rampant consumerism in today’s global market. The consequence of this business-as-usual pressure is that governments have little option but to relentlessly pursue fossil fuel powered economic growth. But with population numbers in the billions it is a policy which is ecologically ruinous without emissions containment. Even if containment could be achieved, it is also economically disastrous since coal, oil gas, uranium and many other minerals will run out if they are not already doing so. At this present moment in time, at the beginning of the 21st century, mankind seems determined to continue using fossil fuels until reserves are exhausted. This however promises to be foolish in the extreme since there is still almost 5000 Gigatons of carbon underground in the form of known and possible reserves of natural gas, coal and oil21. This is a much larger figure than given at the beginning of Sect. 8.1, since it includes highly speculative estimates of possible reserves still to be found. If this additional hoard is left untouched, it is safely sequestered. On the other hand, if it is all incinerated to provide energy, CO2 in the atmosphere will rise four times above pre-industrial levels. The best climate simulations suggest that this would result in a disastrous 6.3C rise in the average global temperature. Perhaps we could burn the remaining fossil fuels safely by employing carbon capture and sequestering it (CCS)? CCS has been postulated as providing a means of continuing to combust fossil fuels while diminishing the contribution to climate change by, in effect, capturing as much as possible of the CO2 exhausted from large concentrated sources of greenhouse gases such as fossil fuel power plants, rather than dumping it in the atmosphere, which is currently our wont. The technique cannot be applied to transport, so a large contributor to greenhouse gas emissions is completely bypassed by the proposal. Once captured it is planned to store or sequester the CO2, by different means, in receptive geological formations, or in the deep ocean, well away from the atmosphere. It should be noted that CCS has also been used to describe biological techniques such as biochar burial, which uses tree growth as the basic CO2 absorption mechanism. The accelerated growth of ocean organisms like plankton, which are also natural consumers of CO2, is also considered to be a form of CCS. However, it is more conventional to use the term in relation to non-biological processes in which CO2 from fossil fuel combustion products is chemically captured at the source of combustion. Although CO2 has been injected into geological formations for various purposes in the past, the long term storage of this gas is a relatively new concept. The first commercial example of pumping CO2 into a geological formation took place at the Weyburn oil field in Canada in 2000. The intention in this case was not storage but to force as much of the remaining oil as possible from the well. It is a technique which is being used increasingly widely today to boost oil and gas production. The first genuine CCS programme, on a pilot-scale, was set up in 2006 in a coal-fired power plant in East Germany. It was due to begin operating in September 2008, with the aim of answering questions about technological

8.2 Breaking the Fossil Fuel Habit

169

feasibility and economic efficiency. Today CCS is being investigated around the world but particularly in Europe and the USA. It is claimed that CCS applied to a modern conventional power plant could reduce its CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by a factor of about two [21]. However, this is at a considerable energy cost. The IPCC estimates that the increase in energy required to capture CO2 in a typical coal-fired power station is between 10 and 40%, depending on the technology used. (2005 IPCC report [21]). These and other system costs are estimated to increase the cost of energy from a new coal consuming power plant equipped with CCS by 21–91% [22]. It should be emphasised that these estimates apply to purpose-built plants near a storage location: applying the technology to pre-existing plants, or plants far from a storage location, will be even more expensive. Storage of the CO2 is envisaged mainly in terms of deep geological formations, but sequestration in deep ocean masses, or in the form of mineral carbonates is also being discussed. In the case of deep ocean storage, there is a risk of greatly increasing the problem of ocean acidification, a problem that also stems from the excess of CO2 already in the atmosphere and oceans. These well documented problems of simply pumping CO2 deep into the ocean as an effluent, or of sequestering it by chemical methods, seem likely to remain largely unsolved into the foreseeable future. Consequently, geological formations are currently considered to represent the most promising sequestration sites. The injection of CO2 at pressure into suitable formations, generally at depths of greater than 2500 feet (800 m), ensures that the CO2 remains liquid, and displaces the original liquids (mainly oil or water) in the pores of the encasing rock formations. Such formations must possess an impermeable ‘cap’, since CO2 is lighter than water and will tend to seep upwards. This requirement places a severe limitation on acceptable storage formations. Even if the capturing of carbon becomes feasible, and recent research results indicate otherwise, sequestering of CO2, at the global level, is of doubtful benefit [23]. While it may be possible to store some liquefied CO2 in worked-out coal mines, depleted oil and gas wells and perhaps natural caverns, most of the greenhouse gases produced by burning the remaining reserves of fossil fuels will have to be released into the atmosphere. This is because coal is almost pure carbon, while CO2 which is one part carbon and two parts oxygen occupies a volume close to three times greater than the original coal. This means that there is not enough suitable underground storage capacity globally to accommodate much more than about a third of the waste CO2, which would result from burning the coal that remains below ground. The IPCC has calculated that the capacity of known geological formations (using their most cautious estimates) could possibly permit the sequestering of 9 years worth of CO2 emissions at the current rate of fossil fuel combustion. Even if we can master the technology, it seems that viable storage formations will soon become saturated with CO2. The caution evinced by the IPCC is driven by the fact that furnishing guarantees for secure long term underground storage is likely to remain very difficult and uncertain for many possible sites. The possibility of a serious and unexpected leak of CO2 from a

170

8 Sustainable Technologies

storage site into the atmosphere has to be statistically insignificant because a dense smog of CO2 hanging over the ground is lethal for animals and humans alike. The veracity of this statement is provided by an unusual and tragic event in 1986 which engulfed life dwelling around Lake Nyos in Africa. Possibly triggered by a landslide, this lake suddenly emitted a large cloud of CO2, which hung over the landscape long enough to suffocate 1,700 people resident in nearby villages, and 3,500 livestock grazing on the surrounding countryside. It should also be added that so called ‘clean’ coal, as the spin merchants like to describe it, is by no means clean. A coal powered station incorporating CCS, is no better in environmental terms than a conventional gas powered station, which can hardly be described as ‘green’. CCS even if it can be demonstrated to be practicable, can never be more than a palliative in the search for true energy sustainability. Of course, as already intimated, the carbon capture hype ignores the fact that all of the harmful CO2 generated by transport, which is not insignificant, cannot be captured.

8.2.3 Nuclear Option The technology which is most often cited as the successor to fossil fuels, particularly in relation to the generation of electricity, is nuclear power [24]. A nuclear power station generates electricity in a manner which is very little different from a conventional coal powered station, except in the way in which the steam is produced to drive the steam turbines. In a conventional nuclear station it is a by product of the process of cooling the reactor—a device in which nuclear chain reactions are initiated, controlled, and sustained at a steady rate. In a nuclear bomb, by contrast, the chain reaction occurs in a fraction of a second and is uncontrolled thereby causing an explosion. There are three distinct alternatives and they shall be addressed in turn. They are nuclear fission reactors burning uranium, breeder reactors employing thorium, and fusion reactors. Currently, in most developed economies electric power represents only 10% of the total power consumed. In the post fossil fuel age, however, it seems likely that much nearer to 100% of our power will be supplied through the electricity grid, and on current trends the amount will be colossal. By 2050 reliable estimates, from a range of economic forecasters, are that global power consumption will reach 25 TW (25 million MW), if ‘business as usual’ growth patterns are assumed. This means that to totally replace fossil fuels by 2050 we will need 50,000 nuclear stations of typically 500 MW capacity. This is an utterly impossible target. At a very optimistic rate of build of two a week until 2050 we will achieve only 3,000 additional nuclear power plants. But what is even more inhibiting, is the fact that at this rate of build and operation, readily accessible reserves of uranium run out at about 2040 (www.wise-uranium.org/stk.html). So can breeder reactors make up the difference? Liquid metal breeder reactors fuelled by thorium, despite their potentially dangerous plutonium legacy, are

8.2 Breaking the Fossil Fuel Habit

171

seriously being assessed by Indian scientists to provide energy on the sub-continent. However, some simple calculations on the reserves of economically exploitable thorium (*6 million tones) suggests that at a two-a-week rate of build, if this were remotely possible, thorium would not last much longer than uranium. Forty years seems a not unreasonable estimate. This is because the breeding ratio of thorium reactors is very low. In referring to the disappointing breeding ratio, and the very poor economic prospects, the renowned scientist Edward Teller, a staunch advocate of all things nuclear, is quoted as saying: ‘‘Breeders don’t work’’. This still seems to apply, even today, although some evidence for limited progress is becoming discernable! Breeder reactors in various guises are being contemplated, such as integral fast reactors, in addition to the thorium reactors, but none (as of 2010) is close to full commercialisation. On the whole, it seems fair to assume that this technology will be largely irrelevant to the problem that faces us of achieving a massive growth in clean electrical generation capacity, over the next 20–30 years. The nuclear option, which would have to rely on the current generation of fission reactors, has no more than a limited role to play. Statistically it is quite clear that if nuclear power stations were allowed to grow remorselessly in numbers and become more widespread, the more likely is it that a major incident will occur, simply because, as pointed out earlier, a nuclear fission reactor is inherently unstable, and requires sophisticated, computer reliant, control systems to maintain a stable reaction. Human designed and operated control systems can go wrong. Even staunch believers in the benefits of nuclear technology would find it hard not to be disturbed by the idea of coast to coast nuclear power stations to counteract global warming. Certainly, engineers with some knowledge of the laws of Murphy would have great difficulty in viewing this prospect with any equanimity. Obviously, this increasing risk must be acknowledged in the planning process. In the long term there is of course the elusive promise of plentiful ‘clean’ energy from the fusion of hydrogen to form helium, as in the sun, but the science is very difficult, and the best estimates for a successful harnessing of this technology, is perhaps 50 years. This is too long for nuclear fusion to have any impact on the climate change dilemma.

8.2.4 Hydrogen for Fossil-Fuels What about the so called ‘silver bullet’ that is energy from hydrogen? There are many modern industrial and other processes which use hydrogen in relatively small amounts, and for these applications the gas is extracted from hydrocarbons. However in a post fossil fuel age this would not be possible and ‘clean’ hydrogen would have to be separated from water by electrolysis. Not surprisingly, water (H2O) is a very common source of hydrogen. It can be ‘split’ by electrolysis, which is a process of decomposing water into hydrogen and oxygen by using

172

8 Sustainable Technologies

electric current. The technology is mature and is generally used where very pure hydrogen is required. An electrolysis cell comprises five main elements. Firstly, the containment vessel, which is not unlike a very large car battery, is filled with an aqueous electrolyte (usually a dilute solution of water and potassium hydroxide). Secondly an anode plate and a cathode plate are inserted into the electrolyte and are connected to an external electrical circuit, which drives current through the vessel. The electrodes are preferably made from platinum, but since this is a scarce expensive metal, the cathode is more commonly formed from nickel ‘flashed’ with a coating of platinum, while the anode is either copper or nickel coated with trace layers of the oxides of metals such as manganese, tungsten and ruthenium to accelerate the anode interaction. Finally the vessel is divided by a barrier layer separating the cathode electrolyte from the anode electrolyte. This layer has to be permeable to the flow of ions from anode to cathode (e.g. a proton exchange membrane or PEM), but should be impermeable to the hydrogen formed at the cathode and the oxygen formed at the anode, so that these gases can be removed separately. The chemical process can be summarised as follows: at the anode hydroxyl ions (negative) give up an electron to the electrode resulting in the formation of oxygen and water. The electron travels around the external circuit to the cathode where it combines with a potassium ion (positive). This electron flow accords with the drive current supplied by the electrolyser power source. The highly reactive potassium molecules then combine with water molecules to generate hydrogen and hydroxyl ions which pass through the PEM to the anode, and so the process proceeds as long as current and water continue to be supplied [25, 26]. In an ideal electrolysis cell, a voltage of 1.47 V, if applied to the electrodes at 25C, will decompose the water into hydrogen and oxygen isothermally and the electrical efficiency will be 100%. A voltage as low as 1.23 V will still decompose the water, but now the reaction is endothermic, and energy in the form of heat will be drawn from the cell’s surroundings. On the other hand, the application of a voltage higher than 1.47 V will result in water decomposition with heat being lost to the surroundings [26]. The process becomes exothermic. Clearly maximum efficiency equates to the lowest voltage which results in hydrogen and oxygen being formed. But this operating regime draws a very low current from the source and hence a very slow rate of production of hydrogen per unit area of electrode surface, which means that impractically large cells would be required to produce commercial quantities of hydrogen. As with all engineering processes a compromise is called for; in this case between efficiency and production rate. Thus, practical cells are operated at high temperature (*900C) at voltages in the range 1.5–2.05 V. For example, a high temperature electrolysing cell operating at atmospheric pressure, with a power input of 60 kW, would generate 25 g/min or 280 l/min of gaseous hydrogen, together with half this amount again of oxygen (by volume) [27]. This conversion rate from input power to volume of hydrogen is calculated on the basis of negligible thermal losses. The electric current required is 40 kA for a cell voltage of 1.5 V.

8.2 Breaking the Fossil Fuel Habit

173

Individual cells can be combined in essentially two different ways to form a hydrogen production unit. These are tank type or filter press type [26]. In electrolysers of the tank type each cell, with its anode, cathode, its own source of water and separate electrical connections, is housed in a separate chamber; typically in the form of a rectangular container about 3 m deep by 1 m wide by 20 cm thick. These chambers are then stacked, book-like, into a unit containing about 20 cells, which are connected in parallel electrically from a low voltage, high current, busbar. The performance of an individual cell has little effect on its neighbours in this stacking arrangement, so it is a simple matter to replace faulty cells. Unfortunately, while the tank type electrolyser is electrically simple in concept, it requires the generation of very large currents. Conductors from the power supply to the tank have to be very robust, and highly conducting (usually heavy copper bus-bars), while massive step down transformers and rectifiers are required to supply the large DC currents. All of this drags down the efficiency of the electrolysing process. The alternative approach, termed filter press construction, is more efficient and less demanding in power supply terms. In this construction the electrodes are formed into rectangular panels, which are stacked together with suitable spacing, and with separators, like slices of bread forming a loaf. The back side of the cathode in one cell is the anode of the next cell, and the electrolysing unit will typically comprise 100 cells, electrically connected together in series. In this connection the voltages, rather than the cell currents, are additive, so that a 100 cell unit operating at 1.5 V per cell will require a supply voltage of 150 V, and a current equal to the single cell current (*40 kA). This is a much easier power supply requirement. However, there is a difficulty with the series connection, and that is the need for all cells to be identical, otherwise a cell can easily be overloaded and unit failure can occur because of the demise of one cell. At best, such a unit, producing 28,000 l/min could be in the region of 70% efficient in converting electrical power to pressurised hydrogen gas. In practice less than 50% can be expected. Including storage tanks, an electrolyser of this description would be about 6 m high by 5 m long by 2 m wide. Given that the exothermic process is less than 50% efficient, it means that a sustainable modern global economy with a 25 TW power demand, were it to be powered by hydrogen alone, would require in excess of 50 TW electrical power to drive the electrolysing hydrogen plants, when the inefficiencies involved in burning hydrogen are factored into the calculations. This huge level of power is just not going to be available from clean energy sources in the course of this century, or perhaps even the next. Furthermore, hydrogen has an energy content of 2.3 kW-h/litre, and since 25 TW for a year equals 220 9 1012 kW-h, we can deduce that the modern global economy of 2050 will require 95 9 1012 l (slightly more than the volume of water in the Caspian Sea) of the gas to be generated yearly. This massive volume of hydrogen would have to be stored, presumably in very frigid liquid form. The power required to do so is not insignificant and just adds to the problems of a hydrogen economy. It seems appropriate here to quote from the well known, recently published book [28] ‘The Hype about Hydrogen’. In it, the author is motivated to comment that it hardly makes ‘much sense to generate

174

8 Sustainable Technologies

electricity from renewable resources, then generate hydrogen from that electricity using an expensive and energy-intensive electrolyser, compress and liquefy it (using more energy) ship the hydrogen over long distances (consuming more energy), and then use that hydrogen to generate electricity again with low temperature fuel cells’. On all the available evidence it is hard to disagree.

8.3 The Transition to Renewables 8.3.1 The Ecogrid From an engineering perspective the sensible way forward for mankind is a whole scale rapid adoption of renewable power sources created by endlessly available, very reliable, daily doses of sunshine. The switch to renewable power for the bulk of our energy needs will have to incorporate a wide range of technologies. It will need to be coordinated using ‘smart’ communications and control techniques on a continental scale, and will probably employ superconducting DC grid connections where large distances are involved. The result would be the ecogrid [29] for want of a better name. It is interesting to note that a 600 m long grid connection recently installed and demonstrated by the Long Island Power Authority in the USA was super-cooled by forcing liquid nitrogen through an annular space in the connecting coaxial cable. The voltage was 138 kV and 2000 A flowed in the cable. This represents the same power carrying capacity of a conventional 345 kV overhead line, but with virtually no transmission loss. In the future, modern materials offering room temperature superconductivity may dispense with the cooling which is not easy to sustain over long distances. A feature of renewable power sources such as wind, wave and solar, which is raised repeatedly in debates about their capacity to replace fossil fuel powered electricity generators, is intermittency of supply. However, at the global, or continental level, the variability of renewables can be addressed much more easily. In the European sector of the globe, when the wind is not blowing in Scotland it will likely be blowing in Germany! Under the auspices of the European Community, several reports [30] have been generated to assess the feasibility of a direct current (DC) super-grid connecting geothermal power stations in central Europe, solar power stations in southern Europe and North Africa, wind farms in Western Europe, wave/tidal systems in Scandinavia and Portugal, and hydroelectric stations in Northern Europe. This system would be backed up by massive storage facilities based on pumped hydro-electric schemes, on pumped heat energy storage schemes, on compressed gas and hot water thermal storage using cathedral sized underground caverns, on massive flywheel farms, on battery storage barns the size of football pitches and on huge super-cooled magnetic storage devices. Prototype examples of all of these technologies already exist. In relation to long distance electricity transmission, undersea power lines from Scotland to the continent of

8.3 The Transition to Renewables

175

Europe, and across the Mediterranean, are seriously being evaluated at the present time. It should be emphasized that almost all of the renewable technologies listed above are relatively conventional. In principle, therefore, sustainable power systems based on these technologies could become available very quickly if implemented by an international community imbued with the drive, determination, and enthusiasm to give succour to the environment. It will entail the release of economic resources on a bank-crisis scale, and the recruitment and deployment of human resources on the level of a major military campaign. But where, at ‘short notice’, would the scientists, engineers and technicians required to implement the paradigm shift to renewables come from, and how could the required unprecedented expansion of manufacturing capability be achieved? The major components of renewable power stations, such as turbines, gear trains, generators, propeller blades, nacelles, control electronics, management systems, metering, solar reflectors, etc., are, in engineering terms, not unlike what is currently manufactured in considerable volume by the automobile and aeronautic industries. Consequently, the engineering answer to the above question is not too difficult to enunciate if we accept that the future is sans oil. We must commandeer these industries and shift their manufacturing emphasis away from the building of soonto-be-redundant road vehicles and aircraft, towards providing the infrastructure for renewable power plants, and we must use the capabilities of other fossil fuel dependent industries, such as those involved in chemicals and plastics, to develop storage systems and materials for a superconducting grid. The following quotation attributed to Richard Chartres, the Bishop of London seems appropriate: Given that we have an overriding imperative to walk more lightly upon the Earth, making selfish choices such as flying on holiday or buying a large car are symptoms of sin. Sin is not just a restricted list of moral mistakes, it is living a life turned in on itself where people ignore the consequences of their actions.

Once completed Earth will possess a notionally egalitarian electrical power systems providing power to all nations which are connected to it. Controlling, distributing and monitoring the power will not be particularly difficult with modern smart sensing and control, enabled by satellite communications and sophisticated computer techniques. On the other hand, putting political and economic mechanisms in place to ensure fair and affordable access may be much less simple. It also has to be said that this worldwide, renewable power, distribution system will be difficult to protect. It will be susceptible to sabotage by incorrigibly warlike humans and to intermittent localised storm damage. On the other hand, this disadvantage is far outweighed by the fact that the technology is conventional, well established, and therefore benign. This means that failures will not equate with disasters, as would be the case if vulnerable CCS coal stations, nuclear power stations, and hydrogen power plants were allowed to encircle the globe. As an applied scientist and engineer with a healthy regard for Edward A. Murphy Jr., who is famous for his observations on the incompatibility of human operators and complex systems, experience tells me that he was very perceptive when he opined

176

8 Sustainable Technologies

that ‘if there are two or more ways to do something, and one of those ways can result in catastrophe, then catastrophe is inevitable’. This maxim would make me be very wary of relying on sources of power which are complex, or incorporate untried technology, and are thus prone to catastrophic failure, especially if adopted on a large scale. Equally I would not entertain extreme geo-engineering schemes designed to mitigate the greenhouse effect, such as seeding space with millions of mirrors to scatter solar radiation into the heavens. A bright idea, but terminally disastrous, if it goes wrong–as it surely would according to Murphy’s law!

8.3.2 Power Supply Constraints Cautious estimates [29] suggest that globally 14 TW by 2050 is extractable from renewables. This is not enough to satisfy BAU growth but is more than enough to operate modern global economies at the level prevalent in 1990 when consumption was about 12 TW. It seems likely that energy will become very expensive and that as a result globalisation will wither. Once it is established, the era of renewables will be one in which high speed global travel by air will be essentially impossible for the large bulk of humanity. The large scale movement of cargo will probably be limited to solar and wind powered container ships, or to trans-continental electrified railways, and it is likely to be very expensive in an energy constrained world. Markets will surely become predominantly regional and local, as a result of the disappearance of the primary modus operandi for many businesses and companies of global reach, which have relied on cheap Third World labour, backed up by inexpensive and rapid transport, to undercut local production. So how much power can renewables really provide to a rapidly growing population of increasingly energy-hungry human beings? It is possible to show, by first assessing the magnitude of the resource as predicted by fundamental physics, followed by thermal efficiency calculations on the collected power as it is subsequently processed through various stages of electricity production–turbines, generators, up-conversion transformers, transmission over the grid, down-conversion transformers and distribution to consumers–that, despite the ‘hype’, the power available to users is by no means limitless [29]. ‘Firm’ estimates for ultimate electrical power levels, which can be extracted from realistically accessible renewable sources, are summarised in Table 8.1. These estimates are of an accuracy, which an engineer would describe as being of ‘ball-park’ reliability, since they are based mainly on engineering evaluations of the science and technology, although they are backed up by some less reliable geographical and geological guesstimates relating to the exploitable extent of the most suitable power collection sites. The following observations are apposite: Hydro. Hydroelectric schemes represent a mature renewable energy resource, and in the Western industrialised nations most of the viable sites for reservoirs and

8.3 The Transition to Renewables Table 8.1 Global potential for renewable power at customer sockets

177

Renewable resource

Available power at the point of consumption (TW) (2050 +)

Hydro Wind Wave Tidal Solar Geothermal Nuclear Total Fraction of (projected demand [31])

*2.0 7.5 0.022 0.2 4.5 0.14 1.8 *16.2 54% (*30 TW)

dams have been commandeered. Growth is occurring mainly in the new industrial nations of Asia, in particular China and India. It is difficult to assess to what extent mankind will exploit sites, which in the past might have been considered to be too difficult, too controversial, and too expensive, once fossil fuel derived energy is in very short supply. My guess is that about 2 TW, almost three times the 2009 level, is the best that could be achieved in the long term. This is of the order of 13.4% of the power (15 TW) currently consumed by mankind. Wind. Given the extent to which land is already being commandeered by the human population, it is estimated [29] that using currently available technology, an area of land and shore, about equal to the land area of Mexico, but spread across the globe, could possibly be identified for coverage by wind farms, if the desire for energy becomes sufficiently desperate. This results in the figure of 7.5 TW of power to the consumer from wind, after all loss mechanisms have been factored into the calculation. It is difficult to see how more could be extracted from wind in the long term, if we assume that the human population will continue to grow, and will require to maintain, at least at present levels, other forms of land usage. The figure is equivalent to 50% of current (2009) demand-a very significant contribution from wind–but it is predicated upon solving the variability issues. Wave. Wave power will contribute only a tiny fraction (0.14%) of man’s energy needs even in the very long term. Despite the fact that the power in the waves is vast, little is available for exploitation, unless we learn to extract it in the deep ocean. With current technology we are limited to shore based, or close to shore, collection schemes. In addition global coastlines that offer good waves, in sites which are not unfeasibly hostile, are estimated to be no more than 5000 km in extent. Even if all of this coastline were optimally employed as wave farms, the most that we can possibly harvest is about 22 GW. Tidal. The gravitational physics governing tidal movements indicate that the potential energy built into the ‘pull’ of the sun and moon on the seas and oceans of the globe, while large (equivalent to about 130 Aswan dams), is quite limited by comparison with hydro, wind and solar resources. Like wave activity it is also very difficult to access. Suitable sites for barrage and tidal stream methods of tapping

178

8 Sustainable Technologies

into the tides are scarce, and calculations suggest that, at best, 0.2 TW of electrical power could be extracted for tidal resources. This is 1.3% of current demand. Solar. Using basic geometry and the known radiant power of the sun it is possible to establish a figure for the radiant power density striking the earth’s disc. This quantity is termed the solar constant and is currently estimated to be 1367 W/ m2. From this the solar power density at the earth’s surface can be computed and is generally quoted as having a mean value of 170 W/m2. Used unwisely this statistic can generate hugely over-optimistic estimates of exploitable solar power levels. This is because, when delivery to the consumer is the criterion, and conversion, generation, transforming, transmission and distribution inefficiencies are factored into calculations, a figure of 4.5 W/m2 is obtained for the watts per square metre of land, which can be extracted from solar radiation, with currently available technology. The most effective locations for solar farms are hot, arid deserts, but even these locations have other uses and are not devoid of ecological importance. Land area available for massive solar farms is not ‘unlimited’ and reasoned deliberation suggests that an upper limit of 4.5 TW of electrical power is available from solar sources. In the long term, therefore, about 15% of projected global demand (30 TW [31]) could be met from solar power stations and other solar gathering activities. Geothermal. As with wave and tidal power, geothermal power represents a useful but small resource in global terms. Reliable estimates suggest that output from this resource, with current levels of technology, could over time possibly reach 15 times the power being delivered in 2005, which gives a ball-park prediction for geothermal power of 140 GW. Consequently geothermal sources could potentially add 0.6% of demand to the renewables ‘mix’ in the long term. Nuclear. Figures for nuclear power generation have been included in the table for completeness, although nuclear fission is not strictly renewable. It is included here since it seems unlikely that it will not be needed to provide reliable base load electricity for a global supply system particularly during the transition to a fully functioning renewable network. On the basis that an unforeseen technological break-through in extracting electrical power from renewable resources, such as nuclear fusion, is not on the horizon, and that present methods will not advance much beyond current levels of sophistication, the engineering evidence strongly suggests that electrical power generated from all renewable sources, backed up by nuclear power, will, in the long term (beyond 2070), probably plateau at a 16 TW level. This equates to about 50 percent of a possible demand of *30 TW, which is predicted by statistical projections to 2050 and beyond, were we to be foolish enough to continue to pursue BAU far into the century. It is presumed that human population will plateau at 10.5 billion towards the end of the century, and that mankind continues to be in thrall to an energy profligate, consumption driven, global economic system. To improve on the 16 TW figure (Table 8.1) would either take a step-function change in technological expertise and engineering prowess, particularly with regard to operating in hostile marine environments, or an unlikely acceptance by human societies of a visual pollution and environmental degradation levels, associated

8.3 The Transition to Renewables

179

with covering vast areas of land and sea with wind, wave and solar farms, far beyond today’s acceptable boundaries. In my long experience, major technological advances generally take about 20–30 years to move from an idea to full practical implementation. Consequently, if it turns out that human beings have not been smart enough to give up their addiction to the energy guzzling luxuries and trappings, which fossil fuels obviously provide, then the above figure implies that once the coal mines, oil wells and gas wells are exhausted, mankind will be forced to adjust to a severe slump in power supply. Of course, on this scenario they will, in addition, have to exist in a much degraded biosphere and with all that that may mean!

8.3.3 Eliminating Frivolous Energy Use Sustained and effective attention to thermodynamic imperatives will become mandatory in order to improve the efficiency of the electrical supply industry, to minimize or eliminate the frivolous use of electricity, and to raise the efficiency of consumer equipment. By so doing 16 TW can potentially go very much further than current poor practices would allow. Hopefully we would see disappear, many uses of energy, especially in modern industrialised societies, which are frankly trivial and unnecessary. There are lots of examples, in the home, in entertainment venues, in the gymnasium, in the garden, in the workplace and elsewhere. At the time of writing, on one of the few days this summer, in the South East of Scotland, when the rain has stayed away and the sun has made a welcome appearance, the pleasure of decamping to the garden has been spoilt by noise pollution. The culprits are, of course, lawn mowers (mainly electric but petrol driven version are also a pest), but today there is also an electric hedge trimmer grinding in the background. For able bodied human beings why are such devices necessary? Much less noisy push-mowers, and hand operated hedge shears, were more than adequate to maintain the trim appearance of out-of-doors suburbia in the not too distant past. The manual versions also provided superb exercise for the user–surely a consideration in these days of spreading obesity? Given that on average, during a working day, an adult human being is capable of providing muscle power of the order of 250 W (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Human_powered_vehicle) it is salutary to note that beyond 2050, a conservative 3 billion or so adult, able bodied, men and women (*30% of the total population) on the planet, will represent available power for doing mechanical work of 0.75 TW. If all of this muscle power could be used to do work, which is currently being done by hand tools and other machines designed to boost human indolence, all powered by electricity, and remembering that electricity generation and transmission is, at best, 50% efficient, 1.5 TW (*10%) of renewable power generation could immediately be saved. This is the output of about fifteen hundred large power stations! With so much muscle power at our disposal, why do so many trucks, delivery lorries, removal vans, garbage collection vehicles

180

8 Sustainable Technologies

seem to have hoists or cranes using the power of the engine to lift goods on and off said vehicle, rather than use man power? The answer, of course, is easy access to ridiculously cheap fossil fuel energy. But in a resources strapped world, an awful lot of scarce energy can be saved by re-introducing muscle power. It is not so long ago, certainly with the memory span of anyone over fifty, that coal delivery men were nonchalantly shifting 1cwt coal bags on and off of trucks using their own ‘brute strength’. The construction industry has also got rid of the ‘muscle power’ and the manual techniques which were more than good enough, in the not too distant past, to create the sophisticated buildings and structures appropriate to the needs of societies which were well advanced even by today’s standards. Others are quite free to contemplate the further savings that could be procured by making intelligent and imaginative use of the muscle power of horses, elephants, yaks, or oxen! Of course health and safety, and animal rights, issues would have to be addressed, but the rules may possibly change when energy is in increasingly short supply. It is, perhaps, pertinent to emphasise, that we are contemplating here the restoration of the health and safety of the planet itself, so it seems inevitable that unpalatable choices will have to be made at some stage! Less controversially, savings can undoubtedly be procured by introducing clockwork, solar cell, and perhaps kinetic mechanisms, into toys and electrical and electronic devices. Many free standing electronic devices are increasingly being supplied with solar panels to power the electronics–such as calculators and watches. This could be extended to a much wider range of electrical components, as solar cells become more efficient, and more robust. Apparently a 40 W solar panel has recently been fitted to a hopefully quiet lawn mower (http://www.sustainableliving. com.au/profiles/stories/solar-powered-lawn-mower/), a clear indication that this technology has reached a stage where it is justifiable to suggest that significant savings in electricity usage globally, could soon be procured without seriously encroaching on individual liberties. My guess is that a further 20–30% saving in energy usage could be achieved, post 2050, by well directed and focused efficiency programmes, aimed at suppressing the worldwide manufacture of frivolous, mainly electrical gadgets, but also other unessential powered products. The object must be to increasingly introduce manual, solar-powered and clockwork powered devices and appliances into the market. Savings of the order of 25% have been predicted for such programmes in a recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute [32]. Of course, if we could also stabilise the world population at the 1990 level, it would be even easier to secure a sustainable future without fossil fuels, and it need not be so grim or primitive as some would have us believe. Actually, it would be naïve to think that coal will be totally eliminated from use in the ‘post fossil fuel age’. But one would assume that it will become a proscribed resource, which is made far too expensive to burn wastefully. Hopefully, it will soon be restricted, rather like ozone destroying chlorofluorocarbons, to utilization by a limited number of licensed, essential users, capable of guaranteeing that their greenhouse gas emissions are within strictly prescribed limits.

8.4 Advanced Civilisation in Harmony with Nature

181

8.4 Advanced Civilisation in Harmony with Nature 8.4.1 Trophic Diagram for Sustainability In ‘The Dominant Animal’ [1], which comprehensively portrays the evolution of human society and how it has influenced life on Earth, the authors offer the following truism: Thus if a population–in this case, the global human population–is being supported not by the income from natural capital but by steady depletion of the capital itself, there is overpopulation.

Demographic studies by a number of anthropological scientists have ventured that an optimum global population, which would yield a good quality of life without harming natural ecosystems and biodiversity (natural capital), yet is still large enough to ensure species survival in the event of a pandemic, or other major disaster, is about 2 billion [33]. This number, which last applied in the 1930’s, would certainly make 2050 greenhouse gas emission targets, and in time full sustainability, much more easily attainable. In order to progress towards zero emissions by about 2050 our modern human civilisations will have to develop a global power supply structure based entirely upon renewable sources of power, as described in the previous section. A modified trophic diagram for the renewables era, with abutting trophic spheres, is depicted in Fig. 8.2. It now comprises a larger natural biosphere and an artificial sphere which is free of the direct fossil fuel emissions associated with climate change, but is still distorting the ecosystem by the activities of a very large human population. The system is powered only by the energy flux generated by today’s sun, the exploitation of ‘ancient sunshine’ having been eliminated. This is expressed by the removal of the sun motif with embedded dinosaur. The relative sizes of these spheres and the degree to which they are in contact is again open to conjecture and debate. The criterion for judging these relativities has to be related in some way to the continued impact of human activities on the global environment. The pollution is still very significant with the global population probably swelling to 9 billion by 2050, but it is arguably considerably less than during the height of the fossil fuel age (Fig. 5.5). The size relativity shown is, as with Fig. 5.5, just an illustrative compromise, but hopefully it is also meaningful and thought provoking. The portion of the trophic diagram (Fig. 8.2) which is representative of man’s artificial ecosystem, contains an industry shell (6) located just inside the outer O2 ? CO2 shell which is powered by clean green energy represented by the wind turbines and pylons. Industry and farming of course continues to produce waste and detritus–represented by the heavy arrow directed rightwards from the centre of the artificial sphere–but no greenhouse gases. This thermodynamically produced waste inevitably finds its way into the natural world (righthand portion of Fig. 8.2) as is indicated on the diagram.

182

8 Sustainable Technologies

Fig. 8.2 Trophic diagram for a post fossil fuel era

In the artificial ecosystem, the trophic region which was occupied by the autotrophs in the natural world, has been taken over by crop farming (shell 7), while the heterotrophic shell (7) occupied by the herbivores, in Fig. 4.10, has disappeared for a world of vegetarians!. Within these shells, an inner spherical region (8) contains a much less mobile mankind. This change is represented by the computer symbols. As in Fig. 5.5 waste transmission between the artificial and natural systems is portrayed by the large rightwards directed heavy arrow as indicated earlier, while the large green (light shading) and blue (dark shading) coupling arrows above and below the intersection of the spheres depict the ‘trading’ of O2, clean H2O, and CO2 (‘externalities’ in economic terms) between the two systems. The four radially and outwardly directed arrows in each half of the diagram denotes heat loss in accordance with the first law. The artificial appendage in Fig. 8.2 can never disappear, of course, unless human numbers were to be counted in millions rather than billions, and unless these millions returned to living as humans did 3,000 or more years ago. But we don’t need to regress to an agrarian past; sustainability merely requires that civilisation’s total greenhouse gas emissions are below what the terrestrial and ocean sinks can easily and safely absorb. A controlled diminution of human population, to perhaps 2 billion, over the next century will probably be necessary, so that the biosphere can return to its pre-industrial state of health, and ensure that global average temperatures fall from a predicted peak level of +2C above the pre-1800 level. In saying this, it is assumed that the scientifically determined target fossil fuel burn, advocated in Sect. 8.2, can be adhered to.

8.4 Advanced Civilisation in Harmony with Nature

183

8.4.2 Virtually the Future How mankind will adapt to an energy rationed world in the not too distant future, if it successfully makes the transition from the fossil fuel era to an age of renewable energy, is anybody’s guess? As an applied scientist my inclination would be to surmise that there will be a burgeoning of interactive computing facilitated by a widespread, high speed ‘super-web’. The choice of a computer symbol in region 8 of the trophic diagram (Fig. 8.2) is intended to be suggestive of this possible trend. In the less mobile societies of the new era, deeper, more sophisticated levels of computer interaction between individuals, and between groups, seems to be a likely development in human society, through greater use of the internet enhanced by virtual and augmented reality techniques. If the planet remains habitable, because we manage to avoid inducing run-away warming, human societies will probably embrace the ‘virtual world’ in order to accommodate and maintain globalisation while ditching the need for power hungry, high speed, long distance travel by air. This ‘world’ will be made possible by the increasing availability of very low power consumption, highly efficient electronic devices and integrated circuits. We will inevitably see the development of much more powerful computer systems than we have today, and these will be married to ultra-fast, ultra-wideband communication techniques opening the path to ‘virtuality’. Many of the technologies required to affect this revolution are already in existence and some are even at advanced stages of development. Virtual reality (VR), unlike many other computer simulations which attempt to replicate the physics of three dimensional systems, such as the earth system models referred to earlier, VR is a computer simulated environment. With the use of special interfaces (means of communicating with the computer, such as a joystick or keyboard), a user can ‘‘travel’’ into and through a computer generated world and interact with objects in it by means of interfaces such as head-sets and touch sensitive gloves and boots. The uptake in the implementation of technology of this genre has been most apparent in the world of computer gaming. But many people believe that the true power of VR lies not in its ability to allow the user to enter a fantasy world of games, but in its ability to expand a user’s perception of the real world, from entering the microscopic world of atoms to travelling through the immensity of space to the beginnings of the universe (augmented reality). Actually the ‘virtual world’ can provide much more practical benefits to an energy constrained planet. In a recent article in a Scottish daily newspaper, namely The Herald of the 6th December 2007, the nascent possibility of virtual systems is clearly illustrated. The article accompanies a picture of the Colvilles Pavilion and Tait Tower built for the Glasgow Empire Exhibition in 1938, and demolished some 70 years ago. Entitled ‘3D images bring 1938 Empire Exhibition to life’ the story describes a digital recreation of the exhibition which was opened to the public on the 5th December at Bellahouston Park, a park on the south side of Glasgow, where the original exhibition was sited. Visitors were able to explore the 430 acres of the exhibition using the 3D technology which gave the individual the

184

8 Sustainable Technologies

vivid experience of walking among the original buildings. The project’s creators, working from archived architects’ drawings, sketches and photographs of the exhibition, used three dimensional visualization and digital imaging to achieve a realistic representation of every building. The article reports on the reaction of Percy Walker, aged 91, who had visited the original exhibition. He was quoted as saying ‘‘The digital recreation is absolutely amazing. The only thing missing is the people walking about’’. Even this ‘people’ problem is being addressed. Computer programs, which professional designers can use to present their designs in customer friendly, interactive, three dimensional modes are becoming common place. Such programs are now available for a wide variety of design disciplines with interests ranging from buildings, to aircraft, to automobiles, to clothes. For example in architecture it is possible using the latest imaging techniques to provide clients, the general public and/or interested viewers, with very realistic 3D presentations of the exterior and interior spaces of new designs. Armed with suitable equipment these will allow the viewer to interact visually, aurally and tactilely, with the proposed structure. The best of these virtual systems can lull the viewer into believing that they are actually wandering through, and interacting with, the real ‘building’ before even a ‘sod has been cut’. The possibilities for this type of technology are manifold. Today pilots learn how to fly advanced aircraft in sophisticated simulators, and military pilots practise difficult and dangerous manoeuvres in extremely realistic flight simulators long before they try them in earnest. ‘Tomorrow’, when mass air travel is adjudged to be too hazardous for the environment, they may learn to pilot high speed levitated electric trains the same way. A research team at the University of York (http://gov.epsrc. ac.uk/ViewGrant.aspx?GrantRef=EP/G001634/1) in the UK is well advanced in the development of a VR experience which they term ‘Virtual Cocoon’. The wearer is lulled into believing that he/she is on safari in Africa–they can see it, feel it and smell it. One of the team has been quoted as saying: ‘For me the project will be finished when someone puts the helmet on and they don’t know whether what they are experiencing is with or without the helmet on’. Of course developments, such as video conferencing, and other interactive audio/visual long distance communication systems are already evolving rapidly [34]. The current virtual reality headsets and other attachments, which can be cumbersome and restrictive, and therefore detract from the VR experience, will soon be replaced. The future promises to bring lightweight spectacles with built-in lasers and sensors (within the frames or the lenses) which form images directly onto the retina of each eye of the wearer thereby achieving very high resolution. Glasses will eventually be followed by contact lens equivalents [35]. In combination with Wii type motion sensing and movement tracking gadgets, perhaps built into clothes, or even implanted, it is clear that VR can become so sophisticated that the difference between the real and the virtual becomes blurred, and a virtual visit to Machu Picchu may soon be possible, which will be difficult to distinguish from the real thing, to the benefit of the much eroded visitor attraction and to the planet. ‘‘Beam ‘me’ to the pyramids Scotty’’! Soon, this may not be such a fanciful request as it seems today.

8.4 Advanced Civilisation in Harmony with Nature

185

For the current generation of teenagers and young adults who have acclimatised to the communications revolution with remarkably little difficulty, accommodating to VR should be ‘child’s play’. In the UK, OfCom (the independent regulator and competition authority for the UK communications industries) has recently revealed that the present generation of young adults spends more than 45% of its working hours using mobiles, watching television, surfing the net, playing computer games and accessing social networking sites. More specifically OfCom calculates that the average young person is able to compress 8 h and 48 min of media time into the 7 h working day, which at first sight seems to be an extraordinary statistic. But it is achieved by digital multi-tasking–for example surfing the net while watching television, texting while listening to ipods, compiling an e-mail reply while chatting to a friend on facebook. This seemingly natural evolution of virtual time in the workplace of today suggests that the expansion of digital communications into a virtual world ‘tomorrow’ is unlikely to be problematic for flowering generations of multimedia literate consumers, if they are given the chance to embrace it and develop it.

References 1. Ehrlich P, Ehrlich A (2008) The dominant animal. Island Press, Washington Shearwater Books 2. Hansen J (2005) A slippery slope: how much global warming constitutes dangerous anthropogenic interference. Clim Change 68:269–279 3. Allen MR et al (2009) Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tone. Nature 458:1163–1166 4. Meinshausen M et al (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C. Nature 458:1158–1162 5. George Monbiot. www.monbiot.co.uk 6. World energy consumption. www.solcomhouse.com/worldenergy.htm 7. Gore Al (2009) Our choice. Bloomsbury, London 8. Denman K, Hofmann E, Marchant H (1996) IPCC second assessment report. In: Houghton (ed) Marine biotic response to environmental change and feedbacks to climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 483–516 9. Keeling R et al (1996) Global and hemispheric CO2 sinks deduced from changes in O2 concentration. Nature 381:218–221 10. Rapp D (2010) Assessing climate change. Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK 11. Matthews HD, Caldeira K (2009) Stabilizing climate requires near zero emissions. Geo phys.Res Lett 35:L04705 12. Huntingford C, Lowe JA (2007) Overshoot scenarios and climate change. Science 316:829 13. Lowe JA et al (2009) How difficult is it to recover from dangerous levels of global warming. Environ Res Lett 4:014012 14. Lovelock J (2006) Revenge of Gaia. Penguin Books, London 15. Atkinson A et al (2004) Long term decline in krill stock and increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature 432:100–103 16. Synthesis Report of the IPCC, IVth Assessment Report, IPCC (2007) 17. Bell I (2008) The Saturday Essay. The Herald, 26th April, Glasgow, UK

186

8 Sustainable Technologies

18. Angel R (2006) Feasibility of cooling the earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point. Proc Nat Acad Sci 103(46):17184–17189 19. Budyko MI (1977) Climatic changes. Am Geophys Union, Washington 20. Latham J (1990) Control of global warming. Nature 347(27):339–340 21. IPCC special report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Metz B, Davidson O, de Coninck HC, Loos M and Meyer LA (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA, 442 pp [www.ipcc.ch/activity/ccsspm.pdf] 22. Williams T (2005) Carbon Capture & Storage: Technology, Capacity and Limitations. Parliamentary Information & Research Service, PRB05-89E 23. Dooley J, Wise M (2002) Why injecting CO2 into various geological formations is not the same thing as climate change mitigation: the issue of leakage. College Park MD: Joint Global Climate Change Research Institute [Battelle- Pacific Northwest Nat’l Lab] 24. Hewitt GF, Collier JG (2000) Introduction to nuclear power. Taylor & Francis Ltd, London 25. Bockris JO’M (1980) Energy options. Taylor and Francis Ltd, London 26. Williams LO (1980) Hydrogen power. Pergamon Press, Oxford 27. Ter-Gazarian A (1994) Energy storage for power systems. Peter Peregrinus Ltd, London 28. Romm JJ (2005) The hype about hydrogen. Island Press, Washington DC 29. Sangster AJ (2010) Energy for a warming world. Springer-Verlag Ltd, London 30. Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrated Solar Power, German Aerospace Centre (DLR), April (2006) 31. World Energy Consumption. www.solcomhouse.com/worldenergy.htm 32. Bressand F et al (2007) Curbing global energy demand growth: the energy productivity opportunity. McKinsey Global Institute, Washington DC. May Report 33. Ehrlich PL, Ehrlich AH (2004) One with Nineveh. Island Press, Washington Shearwater Books 34. Rheingold H (1991) Virtual reality. Summit Books, Ontario 35. Pearson I (2008) Our virtual future. IET–Eng Technol No 3(12):18–21

Chapter 9

Gibbs Equation for an Ideal Gas

This chapter and succeeding chapters (namely Chaps. 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14) are essentially appendices buttressing the developments in the main text. They are intended to provide further mathematical and numerical support for those readers with a desire for a more rigorous approach. Consider a system, which is closed to the flow of matter or charge through its bounding surfaces, but is in mechanical and thermal contact with its surroundings (in principle the universe). External conditions ensure that the system is at constant pressure and temperature. At equilibrium, by definition, the entropy of the system ðSu Þ must be a maximum. Therefore: dSu ¼ 0 The quantity dSu the entropy change of the entire system including its surroundings can be separated into two parts: dSs the system entropy change, and dSe the environmental entropy change. Hence dSs þ dSe ¼ 0 If this system exchanges heat dQs with its environment at temperature T, and alters its volume by dVs at pressure P, then the heat absorbed by the surroundings is dQs and the entropy change in the environment is dQs =T: Applying the first law of thermodynamics to the system gives: dQs ¼ dUs þ PdVs

ð9:1Þ

where dQs represents the change in enthalpy. Combining the above equations gives: dSu ¼ dSs

dQs dUs PdVs ¼ dSs ¼0 T T T

The condition of equilibrium for the system, wholly expressed in system parameters is thus:

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_9, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

187

188

9 Gibbs Equation for an Ideal Gas

dSs ¼

1 ðdUs þ PdVs Þ T

ð9:2Þ

. This is termed the Gibbs equation in differential form. In this equation dSs is the change in system entropy, dUs is the decrease in internal energy of the gas, due to the work done by the gas (PdVs), at temperature T. The Gibbs equation, when written in the form: TdSs dUs PdVs ¼ 0

ð9:3Þ

implies that there is some function of the system alone, which has a maximum or a minimum value, whereby its derivative equates to zero. This extremum is dictated by the requirement of maximising the entropy of the system and its surroundings. The function which meets these demands is usually denoted by G, and: G ¼ Us þ PVs TSs

ð9:4Þ

For isothermal (dT = 0) and isobaric (dP = 0) conditions, taking the derivative of G yields: dG ¼ dUs þ PdVs TdSs

ð9:5Þ

Comparison of equations (9.3) and (9.5) informs us that imposing the condition – dG = 0 is equivalent to the maximising of the entropy of the system including its environment. This means that equilibrium occurs when dG = 0, i.e. at the minimum for G. The introduced parameter G is termed the Gibbs ‘free energy’. The system is now ‘open’ since the free energy is expended to, or supplied from the ‘outside world’. For an isothermal, constant volume system such as a biochemical process, the following form of the Gibbs equation is commonly employed: G ¼ U TS where U is the total internal energy and S is entropy.

ð9:6Þ

Chapter 10

Formulation of the Gibbs Equation: Open Systems

For a system governed by the first law of thermodynamics and the Gibbs equation (see Chapter 9) suppose now, that a small amount of a pure substance is exchanged with the environment. Let the amount dn be moles. The change in energy of the system associated with this process is: oUm dUm ¼ dn ð10:1Þ on Vs If l is the chemical potential of the material in question then: oUm l¼ on Vs

ð10:2Þ

Hence for such a system into which i pure substances each of ni moles are introduced, the first law now gives: X li ni ð10:3Þ dQs ¼ dUs þ PdVs and the Gibbs equation expands to: dSs ¼

X 1 li ni Þ ðdUs þ PdVs T

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_10, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

ð10:4Þ

189

Chapter 11

Maxwell Distribution

Here we consider a volume of an ideal gas comprising molecules in random motion. If Dðci Þdci is the fraction of molecules within the fractional velocity range ci to ci þ dci then the product Dðc1 ÞDðc2 ÞDðc3 Þ

ð11:1Þ

pﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃ is the fraction (n) of molecules with velocity c ¼ c21 þ c22 þ c23 : Thus nðcÞ ¼ Dðc1 ÞDðc2 ÞDðc3 Þ

ð11:2Þ

This equation can, by expressing it in logarithmic form and differentiating both sides, be recast in the form: 1 dðln nÞ 1 dðln DÞ ¼ constant ¼ c dc ci dci The ‘constant’ is necessary if the equation is to be true for all values of ci : The solution to this equation is: 1 lc2i ð11:3Þ Dðci Þ ¼ pﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃ exp 2kT 2plk T where k is the Boltzmann constant and l is the molecular weight for the gas. Hence given that the kinetic energy of a molecule is: E¼ we can write:

lc2i J 2

1 E Dðci Þ ¼ pﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃ exp kT 2plk T

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_11, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

ð11:4Þ

ð11:5Þ

191

Chapter 12

Entropy According to Boltzmann

Boltzmann suggested that where gas molecules are distributed in space (x) and in time (t), then the rate of change of the distribution function D(x,c,t) can be expressed as: DD 1 DD þ Dt c Dx

ð12:1Þ

The change in D is brought about by a multiplicity of molecular collisions throughout the gas. Since collisions, in general, involve two molecules, one with 0 velocity c0 the other with velocity c1 before a collision, converting to (say) c0 and 0 c1 after it, then the change in the molecular distribution following such an event 0 0 must be D0 D1 —D0D1. The total rate of change of the function D, is also influenced by the relative speeds of colliding particles (vrel say) and the relative angles of approach and separation (h, u) before and after a collision. The governing equation, deduced by Boltzmann, was as follows: h 0 0 iv DD 1 DD rel sin h dh du dc þ ¼ D0 D1 D0 D1 r Dt c Dx

ð12:2Þ

Summing the effect for all possible collisions, results in the following well established first order integro-differential equation: Z h iv 0 0 oD 1 oD rel sin h dh du dc1 þ ¼ D0 D1 D0 D1 ð12:3Þ r ot ci oxi here written for the i-component of velocity ci. The parameter r has the dimensions m2/s, and arises merely as a result of the adoption of the polar form in defining the directions for colliding particles. Differential equations of this type, having a complex source function on the right hand side of the equals sign, can often be solved by the introduction of an auxiliary function which simplifies the source term. Boltzmann chose the function w = -kln(D/b). For a gas progressing towards equilibrium the source function must eventually become zero, which requires that:

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_12, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

193

194

12 Entropy According to Boltzmann

S ¼ k

Z D ln

D dc dx b

ð12:4Þ

This, it turns out, is entropy as deduced from the kinetic theory of gases. It accords ([11] Chap. 1), as it should, with the second law definition determined by Clausius. For a gas of N molecules obeying the Maxwellian distribution requirement (f say), each has location x and velocity c in x, c space. In the elemental region dx dc (macrostate) of this space we can presume that Pdxdc possible molecular microstates exist. For simplicity let Pdxdc proportional to dx dc, i.e Pdxdc ¼ Ydx dc If at each microstate there are Nxc molecules, then the total number of molecules in P dx dc is sum Pxcdxdc Nxc : But the total number of molecules in dx dc is f dx dc. Therefore we must have: Pdxdc X

Nxc ¼ f dx dc

ð12:5Þ

xc

We can therefore write Pdxdc X f Nxc Y kf ln dx dc ¼ k Nxc ln b b xc

ð12:6Þ

If b is chosen to be proportional to Y; this equation can be expressed in the form Pdxdc X f kf ln dx dc ¼ k ðNxc ln Nxc Nxc Þ b xc

ð12:7Þ

Hence using the mathematical identity ln a! ¼ a ln a a; we get: f 1 kf ln dx dc ¼ k ln QPdxdc b xc Nxc !

ð12:8Þ

Finally by summing over all possible macrostates P0 in x, c space we obtain the result that N! S ¼ k ln QP0 ¼ k ln W xc Nxc !

ð12:9Þ

Chapter 13

Otto Cycle Calculation

Probably the most well established and modelled compression and expansion process in the power chamber of an internal combustion engine is the Otto cycle. Of course, modern engine design is today fully and accurately simulated in computer software, but it still remains useful to perform ‘long hand’ calculations on idealised gas models to gain proper understanding of the thermodynamics. Such calculations are based on idealised gases which are in quasi-equilibrium, expand and contract adiabatically (dQ = 0) or isentropically (dS = 0). For such a gas the Gibbs equation (Eq. 9.3) gives: dU þ Pdv ¼ 0

ð13:1Þ

This means constant enthalpy during the process. Now, for an ideal gas with a constant specific heat (Cv), and using Boyle’s law the above equation becomes: Cv dT þ

RT dv ¼ 0 v

ð13:2Þ

Re-arranging produces the following differential equation: Cv dT dv ¼ R T v

ð13:3Þ

when integrated between states (13.1) and (13.2) in Fig. 13.1 we get: C v T2 v2 ln ¼ ln R T1 v1

ð13:4Þ

which can be written in the form: T2 ¼ T1

R=Cv k1 v1 v1 ¼ v2 v2

ð13:5Þ

where k is the specific heat ratio representing the constant pressure value divided by the constant volume value.

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_13, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

195

196

13

Otto Cycle Calculation

Fig. 13.1 T–s and P–v diagrams depicting the Otto cycle

The idealised Otto cycle for a spark ignited gas is shown in Fig. 13.1, as a temperature-entropy cycle on the left and a pressure–volume cycle on the right. For such a cycle efficiency can be estimated using: ð13:6Þ

g ¼ 1 dQout =dQin

But using the definition of specific heat we must have, for heat transfer involving constant volume processes: dQin ¼ dmCv ðT3 T2 Þ

and dQout ¼ dmCv ðT4 T1 Þ

ð13:7Þ

where dm is the small change in the mass of the gas. Consequently, substituting in Eq. 13.6 we get: g¼1

T4 T1 T1 T4 =T1 1 ¼1 T3 T2 T2 T3 =T2 1

ð13:8Þ

But for an isentropic processes we have: k1 k1 T2 v1 T3 v4 ¼ and ¼ T1 v2 T4 v3 When it is observed that v1 = v4 and v3 = v2, we see that following rather convenient efficiency formula results: g¼1

T1 1 ¼ 1 k1 T2 r

ð13:9Þ T2 T1

¼ TT34 and the

ð13:10Þ

13

Otto Cycle Calculation

197

where r = v1/v2. So the thermal efficiency in this idealised cycle is dependent only on the compression ratio r. Hence the reason, that automobile manufacturers seek to achieve high compression ratios in internal combustion engines. A typical spark ignition Otto cycle engine could have a compression ratio of the order of 10, and exhibit exhaust temperature and pressure of 200°C and 200 kPa respectively. If the mechanical work delivered by the engine is known, from measurement, to be say 1,000 kJ/kg of fuel, then a comparison of thermal efficiency of the ‘real’ engine and the Carnot efficiency can be computed as follows: 1 Thermal efficiency g ¼ 1 rk1 ¼ 1 1010:4 ¼ 0:602 ð60:2%Þ where k for the working gas is typically equal to 1.4. Now the process 1 ? 2 in the Otto cycle is isentropic so we have: k1 v1 ¼ 473 100:4 ¼ 1188 K T2 ¼ T1 v2 The net work for the complete cycle, given that no work is produced between states 2 and 3 and between states 1 and 4, is: wnet ¼ w12 þ w34 ¼ cv ðT1 T2 Þ þ cv ðT3 T4 Þ Therefore 1000 ¼ 0:717ð473 1188 þ T3 T4 Þ

ð13:11Þ

where we have assumed that the specific heat of the combusting vapour is 0.717 kJ/kg K. But for the isentropic process 3 ? 4 k1 v4 ¼ 2:512T4 ð13:12Þ T3 ¼ T4 v3 Simultaneous solution of Eqs. 13.11 and 13.12 yields T3 = 3508 K and T4 = 1397 K. Consequently the Carnot efficiency is: gc ¼ 1

TL 473 ¼1 ¼ 0:865 ð86:5%Þ TH 3508

In essence the Otto cycle efficiency is considerably less than the Carnot efficiency, between the same temperature limits, since the heat transfer processes in the Otto cycle are not reversible.

Chapter 14

Elementary Greenhouse Calculation

For a typical garden greenhouse which could be 4 m long by 3 m wide and 3 m high the glass area will be in the region of A = 43 m2. Glass has a thermal conductivity of rg = 1.1 W/(m K). The wood frame (rw = 0.2 W/(m K)) is likely to occupy an area of Af = 2 m2, and have a thickness lw, to give strength, of about 3 cm. To have good thermal properties the glass area will require to be double glazed with say 1 mm glass sheets (lg) sandwiching a 1 mm layer (la) of an inert gas such as argon which has a thermal conductivity ra = 0.016 W/(m K). The equilibrium temperature in the interior of such a glasshouse can be computed if the heat penetration into it is known. A typical insolation figure for a Northern Hemisphere garden might be 200 W/m2. If we assume one side wall is south facing and efficiently captures the incident sunlight the power entering the structure is of the order of 200 9 16 = 3.2 kW. The heat loss through the greenhouse walls by conduction is given by h ¼ qDT W

ð14:1Þ

where q is the heat conduction of the walls and DT is the temperature difference between the interior and exterior of the structure. Thermal conduction for glass: qg ¼

rg A 1:1 43 ¼ ¼ 23650 W=K lg 0:002

ð14:2Þ

Thermal conduction for argon: qa ¼

ra A 0:016 43 ¼ ¼ 688 W=K la 0:001

ð14:3Þ

But for the sandwich: 1 1 1 ¼ þ qd qg qa

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0_14, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

ð14:4Þ

199

200

14

Elementary Greenhouse Calculation

Therefore: qg qa ¼ 668:5 W=K qg þ qa

ð14:5Þ

rw Af 0:2 2 ¼ ¼ 13:3 W=K lf 0:03

ð14:6Þ

qd ¼ For the wood frame: qw ¼ Hence

q ¼ qd þ qw ¼ 668:5 þ 13:3 ¼ 682 W=K

ð14:7Þ

The interior temperature T can now be calculated from the equation for h giving: 3200 ¼ qðT 283Þ 3200 T¼ þ 283 ¼ 287:8K ¼ 14:5 C 668 In the absence of the argon insulating layer: q ¼ qg þ qw ¼ 23650 þ 13:3 ¼ 23663:3 W=K

ð14:8Þ

Hence T¼

3200 þ 283 ¼ 283:1 K ¼ 10:1 C 23663:3

ð14:9Þ

The solar heating required to maintain 14.5°C in the original green house would be: h ¼ 23663:3 4:4 ¼ 104:1 kW So the Northern Hemisphere insolation would have to rise by the huge figure of: 104100=16 200 ¼ 6306 W=m2 In climate science terms this would be termed the radiative forcing (RF). The number here is of course totally out-of-line with atmospheric figures, which for a * 4°C average global temperature rise would be of the order of 2–3 W/m2. Volume of argon relative to volume of greenhouse ¼

43 0:001 ¼ 0:15% 4 3 2 þ 0:5 1:8 1:8 4

Glossary

AC

Alternating current

AIDS

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome

Amp (A)

Unit of current

ATP

Adenosine triphosphate

Br

Biomass

BAU

Business as usual

Billion

One thousand million (1 9 109)

BP

Before the present day

Bus-bar

Metallic (usually copper) high current interconnector

BTU

British thermal unit (=1,055 J)

BZ

Belousov-Zhabotinsky

C

Carbon

°C

Degree centigrade

CCS

Carbon capture and storage

Ce

Cerium

CFC

Chlorofluorocarbon

CH4

Chemical formula for methane

CO2

Chemical formula for carbon dioxide

Coulomb (C)

Unit of electrical charge

CSP

Concentrated solar power

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

201

202

Glossary

3D

Three dimensional

DC

Direct current

DNA

Deoxyribonucleic acid

E

Energy (J)

Ecogrid

Global electrical power transmission system

Electron

Negatively charged sub-atomic particle

emf

Electro-motive force

EU

European Union

°F

Degree Farenheit

f

Frequency (Hz)

Forcing

Atmospheric warming over and above natural solar warming

Fossil fuels

Carbon based energy sources such asoil, natural gas, and coal.

g

Gravitational acceleration for the Earth (9.81 m/s2)

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

Giga (G)

9109

Greenhouse gas

Mainly carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour

Grid

Electrical power transmission system

Gt

Gigatonne

h

Planck’s constant

H2

Chemical formula for hydrogen

H 2O

Chemical formula for water

HCFC

Hydrochlorofluorocarbon

Hertz

Unit of frequency (1 Hz = 1 cycle/s)

HIV

Human immunodeficiency virus

HVDC

High voltage direct current

i.c.

Internal combustion

IMF

International Monetary Fund

IPCC

International Panel for Climate Change

Joule

Unit of energy

Glossary

203

°K (K)

Degree Kelvin

Kilo (k)

9103

Kinetic energy

Energy of motion

LTG

‘‘Limits to Growth’’

Mega (M)

9106

Micro (l)

910-6

micron

10-6 m

Microwaves

Radio frequencies from 1 GHz to 100 GHz

Milli (m)

910-3

m.k.s or MKS

Metre-kilogram-second dimensional system

mm

Millimetre (10-3 m)

MMR

Mumps, Measles, Rubella

mole

Weight of a substance containing same number of molecules as 12 gms of carbon twelve

mph

Miles per hour

Murphy (Edward)

As in Murphy’s law

Nano(n)

910-9

NASA

National Aeronautics & Space Administration

NET

Non-equilibrium thermodynamics

neutron

Uncharged sub-atomic particle

Newton (N)

Unit of force

nm

Nanometre

N2

Nitrogen

O2

Oxygen

O3

Ozone

Ohm

Unit of electrical resistance

P

Biomass production

Pascal (Pa)

Unit of pressure

PCA

Principal Component Analysis

PEM

Proton exchange membrane

204

Glossary

Photon

The quantum of energy in light—or any electromagnetic wave—associated with atomic absorption and emission processes

Pole

Source (north) or sink (south) for magnetic flux

Potential energy Energy of position Proton ppmv

Positively charged sub-atomic particle Parts per million by volume

PV

Pressure versus volume in a containment vessel

Q

Thermal energy

Renewables

Sources of energy which are essentially inexhaustible as long as the Sun shines — such as wind.

RF

Radiative Forcing

RNA

Ribonucleic acid

RQ

Respiratory quotient

S

Entropy

SDC

Sustainable Development Commission

SI

Standardised International scientific units

T

Temperature

Tera (T)

x1012

Tesla

Unit of magnetic flux density

Tipping point

A climatic or geological event which introduces positive feed back into the global warming process

Tonne (metric ton)

=1000 kg

Trillion

One million million (1 9 1012)

Trophic level

Nutrition level

TSI

Terrestrial solar insolation

UFO

Unidentified flying object

UK

United Kingdom

UN

United Nations

USA

United States of America

Volt (V)

Unit of voltage

Glossary

205

VR

Virtual reality

Watt (W)

Unit of power (J/s)

Wavelength

Distance in space occupied by one cycle of a wave

Weber

Unit of magnetic flux

Index

A Absorber, 60, 88 Absorption, 61, 106 CO2, 96, 161 Abstractions, 123 Accidents, 144 Acid amino, 37, 52, 56 ceric, 50 deoxyribonucleic, 52 fatty, 37 lactic, 39 nucleic, 52–53 phosphoric, 39 rain, 104 robonucleic, 80 uronic, 34 Acidification reduction, 166 Active element, 85 Addict, 149 Addiction, 179 Adenosine monophosphate, 53 Adenosine triphosphate, 28 Adiabatic, 22, 294 Administration, 1 Administrator, 156 Adolescent, 81 Adult, 82 Advancement, 8 Aeon, 2 Aerodynamic advances, 100 Aeronautics, 100 Aerosol, 106, 167 Aerosols, 88 Africa, 3, 108, 146

Agency, 31 Agendas, 76 Agglomeration, 79 Agitation, 32, 62 Agrarian, 182 Agreement, 144 Agri-business, 111 Agriculture, 111, 115, 134, 139, 168 Ailment, 104 Air, 17, 23, 29, 31, 34, 36, 47–48, 60 bubbles, 72 clean, 124, 139 constituents, 87 filled, 87 intake, 100 leaks, 19 litre of, 17 pollution, 104 pressure, 100 travel, 101, 135, 176, 184 warm, 18 Aircraft, 101, 105, 114, 135, 167 Airline, 65 Airport, 135 Albedo, 141, 164 Algae, 86 Algorithm, 164 Aliens, 130 Alignment, 45 Alive, 50 Allegre, Claude, 130 Allen, M.R., 163 Altitude, 71, 100, 108, 152, 163 Amateur, 60 America, 98 Amino acid, 38 Ampere, Andre-Marie, 130

A. J. Sangster, Warming to Ecocide, DOI: 10.1007/978-0-85729-926-0, Ó Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011

207

208

A (cont.) Amplification, 85 Amsterdam, 86 Amusement, 130 Amylase, 37 Anabolic activity, 39 process, 39 Anabolism, 39, 57 Analysis principal component, 67 Ancestor, 28 Ancestors, 140 Ancient sunshine, 110 Ancient times, 89 Anger, 149 Angier, 45 Animal, 2, 27, 29–30, 34, 36, 54, 56 husbandry, 114 rights, 180 Anode, 173 Antarctica, 2, 72, 86, 107 Anthropogenic, 4, 26, 65, 74, 163 CO2, 163 heating, 141 origin, 159 warming, 77, 139 Anthropologist, 133, 141 Anthropology, 150 Anti-Darwinian, 149 Antimony, 159 Anti-social, 134 Aperture, 19 Architect, 184 Architecture, 71, 184 Arctic, 144 Arctic Ocean, 141 Argon, 94, 210 Arithmetic ratio, 3 Arizona, 69 Armageddon, 6 Arrangement cooperative, 53 symbiotic, 53 Arrhenius, Svante, 60, 96, 118, 139 Arrow, 25 Artefact, 5, 25, 75 Artificial, 29 diagram, 112 ecosystem, 113, 115 hemisphere, 113 sphere, 113

Index system, 114 Ashley, Michael, 77 Asia, 3, 146, 177 Astrophysicist, 60 Astrophysics, 77 Aswan Dam, 178 Asymmetry, 45 Athanasiou, A., 151 Atkinson, Angus, 166 Atlantic Ocean, 12 Atmosphere, 4, 48, 51, 60, 65, 95, 112, 140, 170 ancient, 73 carbon dioxide, 4, 65, 170 CO2, 86 composition of, 85 model, 60 outer edge, 88 upper, 168 Atmospheric CO2, 164 dump, 96 pollution, 98, 104 pressure, 175 problem, 165 Atom, 13, 44–45 Atomic carbon, 36 chlorine, 107 hydrogen, 36 magnet, 45 oxygen, 36 vibration, 13 ATP, 28, 39, 53, 70 Attenuation, 59 Audience, 104 Augmented reality, 183 Aural, 184 Australia, 3 Author, 27 Authority, 138 Autocatalysis, 49 Autocatalytic capability, 54 reaction, 54 Automobile, 21, 136 Autotroph, 83, 114, 182 Axis alignment, 61 tilt, 61 wobble, 61

Index B Bacteria, 28 Bacterium, 28, 52 Baird, John Logie, 130 Ball, 17 Ballerina, 44 Balloon, 105 Bamboo, 126 Bank coins, 121 commercial, 121 notes, 121 opprobrium, 122 Bank of England, 122 Bankers, 119 Banks, 121 Bar code, 72 Barren, 55 Barrier, 20 Basal, 38 Base load, 178 Bastion, 57 Bath, 46, 146 Battery, 175 Battery charger, 102 Bedrock, 153 Behaviour exploitative, 154 reckless, 154 Belgium, 104 Belief, 76, 137 Belk, R., 150 Bell shape, 17 Bell, Alexander Graham, 101 Belousov-Zhabotinsky, 50 Benard, Henri, 48 Benz, Karl F., 99 Berlin, 14 Berzelius, J.J., 33 Bias, 75 Binary, 191 Bio-chemical, 83 Biochemical feedback, 85 Biochemistry, 26–27, 57 Biodiverse, 114 Biodiversity, 2, 81, 89, 94, 141, 166 loss, 159 Bio-energeticist, 52 Bioenergetics, 25, 39, 41 Bio-fuel, 167 Biological chemistry, 33

209 community, 52 evolution, 51, 57 hypothesis, 57 integrity, 36 molecules, 55 organism, 25 process, 12 system, 31 systems, 43, 85 tissue, 30, 34, 38, 39 Biologist, 57 Biology, 26, 57, 85 cell, 26 Biomass, 28, 33, 39, 70–71, 81, 94, 167 low energy, 83 production, 81 Biophysical, 136 Biophysics, 57 Biopolymer, 56 Biosphere, 55, 83, 86, 89, 95, 106, 113, 138 danger, 162 inimical, 120 Biospheric sink, 163 Biosystem, 26 inertia, 164 Bio-thermodynamicist, 57 Biotic thermostat, 2 Bi-plane, 100 Birch, 79 Bird, 36 Birmingham, University of , 108 Bitumen, 161 Black body, 32, 62 Black, Joseph, 9 Blanket, 62, 88, 106, 138 Blast furnace, 9 Blind-spot, 137 Blogosphere, 129 Blood, 37–38 Blue, 107 Body, 32, 62 Boiler, 97 Boltzmann equation, 19 Boltzmann factor, 17, 40 Boltzmann, Ludwig Eduard, 16, 25, 62, 178 Bombardment, 21 Bond covalent, 45, 52 dipole, 44 energy, 53 hydrogen, 45

210

B (cont.) Bonus, 122 Book-like, 173 Boom, 122 Borrower, 121 Boston, 120 Bottle, 47 Boulton, Matthew, 9 Boundaries, 124 Boyle, Robert, 16 Boyle’s law, 195 Boyle’s Law, 16, 21 Brayton, G.B., 99 Bread, 37 Breakthrough, 99 Breath, 146 Breathing, 34, 164 Breeder, 170 Bretton Woods, 127 Bristlecone pine, 69, 71 Britain, 8–9 British Antarctic Survey, 166 British officials, 104 Broadcasting, 130 Bromide, 50 Brown, Gordon, 144 Brown, Robert, 16 Bubble, 47 Building, 87 Bush, George W., 144 Business, 5, 76, 176 Business-as-usual, 68, 167, 168 BZ reactions, 50

C Cable coaxial, 174 Calculation, 59 Calculator, 27, 180 Calibrate, 66 California, 69 Callendar, Guy, 60, 103, 118, 139 Caloric theory, 11 Calorimeter, 36 Campaign, 107 Canada, 1 Cancer, 82 Capacitor, 45–46 Capital flight, 156 stock, 154 Capital-asset, 156 Capitalism, 5, 125, 150

Index consumer, 127 credit driven, 126 indefensible, 153 irrationality, 154 market, 7 modern, 150 replacement, 154 synonym for, 154 unfettered, 156 Capitalist firms, 155 juggernaut, 133 system, 153, 157 Car, 22, 99, 114 Carbohydrates, 34, 52 Carbon, 29, 34, 106 accumulated, 161 added, 94 ancient, 138 atmospheric, 63 based, 51 capture, 170 carbon dioxide, 4, 9, 30–31, 38, 60, 65, 72–73 Carbon dioxide, 31 CO2, 29, 33, 59–60, 70–71, 75, 83, 95, 112, 162 CO2 cloud, 172 CO2 flux, 166 CO2 suffocation, 172 content, 162 cumulative limit, 169 cycle, 112, 163 cycling, 161 depletion, 70 dioxide, 88, 146 dioxide molecules, 95 flux, 112, 165 intensive, 137 limitation, 71 liquefied CO2, 169 twelve, 30 Carboniferous, 64 Cargo, 184 Carnivore, 83, 112, 114 Carnot cycle, 22 efficiency, 10–11 engine, 10, 15 function, 11 machine, 14 maximum, 14 optimum, 14 Carnot, Sadi, 10, 95

Index Casino, 122, 127 Caspian Sea, 173 Castle, 2 Catabolic reaction, 37 Catabolism, 37 Catalyser, 36 Catalytic action, 37 behaviour, 54 process, 38 Cathedral, 2 Cathode, 173 Cavendish, Henry, 34 CCS, 170 Cech, Thomas, 52 Cell Be’nard, 48 division, 39, 70 electrolysis, 172 formation, 40 healthy, 36 hexagonal, 48 living, 30, 52 mass, 40 metabolism, 40 replication, 52 Cells, 29 Cellular build-up, 94 calculation, 39 constituents, 28 energy, 27 factory, 27–28, 39, 70 function, 28 growth, 57 interior, 27 molecule, 29 spaces, 30 structure, 36, 49 Century, 25 Cephalopholis miniata, 78 Cereal, 34 Cerium, 51 CFC, 107 ban, 107 phase out, 107 Chamber, 173 Chandrasekhar, S., 61, 139 Charcoal, 9 Charge electric, 32, 62 negative, 20 positive, 20

211 vibration, 32, 62 Cheat, 27 Chemical binding potential, 28 bond, 36 changes, 36 combustion, 99 cycle, 85 cycling, 51 elements, 72 energy, 30, 36, 56, 83, 99 formula, 34 gradient, 54 interactions, 41 order, 49 organic, 85 pathway, 50 potential, 28, 31, 46, 79 process, 12, 33 reaction, 30, 38, 51, 82 source, 38 substance, 31 systems, 54 transport, 28 Chemist, 9, 39, 60 Chemistry, 33, 36, 57 chemical element, 10 conventional, 33 father of, 10 laws of, 40 macromolecular, 39 organic, 30, 33 photosynthesis, 30 Chimp, 135 Chin, 45 China, 1, 177 Chlorine, 107 Chlorofluorocarbon, 76, 106 Christian, 140 Chromosome, 53 Chroniclers, 79 Chronology, 70 Circular orbit, 44 Circulation, 130 Citizen, 118 City, 5, 111 City-scapes, 165 Civilisation, 3–6, 8, 103, 126, 128, 137, 140, 143 impasse, 159 Clapeyron, B.P.E., 11 Clausius, R.J.E., 11, 14–15 Clements, F., 81 Climate

212

C (cont.) ancient, 72 anomaly, 93 balance, 64 behaviour, 73 change, 63, 65, 77, 89, 93, 96, 119, 131, 137, 141, 160 change denial, 76 climate change, 4 dangers, 114 disaster, 166 history, 2 model, 164 model uncertainty, 162 perturbations, 141 policy, 148 record, 61 sensitivity, 96 simulation, 149 speculation, 86 thermodynamics, 145 trends, 162 Climatologist, 60, 73, 77, 139 Climatologists, 106 Climatology, 63 Climax, 81, 84 Clockwork, 180 Closed loop, 22 Cloud, 86, 170 Coal, 5, 8–10, 33, 162 based, 102 CCS, 176 clean, 167 combustion, 98 consumption, 99 delivery man, 180 deposits, 143 excavation, 132 fired, 98 fires, 103 gas, 99–100 mine, 8–9, 169 mining, 8 usage, 104 Coalbrookdale, 9 Coastline, 177 Coefficient, 87 Co-evolution, 78 Cognitive bias, 129 Coherer, 101 Coin, tossing of, 18 Coke, 9, 47 Cold War, 131 College, 29, 128

Index Collisions, 13 Coloniser, 80 Colourful, 50 Columnists, 130 Combustion, 34 chamber, 100 engine, 21–22, 96, 99–100 internal, 21, 23 product, 22 Comets, 52 Commercialisation, 171 Communication, 101, 150 Communications, 175 ultra-fast, 183 ultra-wideband, 183 Communism, 131 Community, 150 Company, 124 Comparative-static, 124 Competition, 155 Complex, 30 cycling, 51 energy, 41 gradient, 57 linkages, 78 molecule, 52 organisms, 28 pattern, 67 self-organised forms, 54 structure, 42, 49, 51, 55 system, 25, 86, 93, 176 systems, 86 Complexity, 25, 27, 40, 43, 48 mathematical, 124 molecular, 78 non-equilibrium, 57 prebiotic, 56 Compound, 34 Compression, 23 Compton, 32, 62 Computer, 23, 68, 102, 121, 128 buff, 102 control, 174 electronics, 102 gaming, 183 hardwired, 85 hardwired, 68 program, 184 reconstruction, 107 run, 69 simulation, 183 symbol, 183 systems, 183

Index techniques, 175 Computing high speed, 184 interactive, 184 super-web, 183 Con trails, 89 Concert, 104 Condensation, 33 Condensation nuclei, 86 Condenser, 9, 97 Conduction, 31 Conference, 184 Confidence, 153 Conifer, 70 Connecting rod, 21 Conscience, 130 Conscious, 137 Conservation, 126 Consolidation, 79 Conspiracy, 76 Consumer, 5, 65, 120 behaviour, 150 desire, 150, 155 equipment, 179 goods, 118 outlets, 118 services, 118 Consumerism, 5, 68, 156 rampant, 145, 168 unrestrained, 156 Consumption, 154, 183 Contagion, 105 Containment vessel, 172 Continent, 175 Contingency fund, 117 Contraception, 3 Control biospheric, 85 cybernetic, 85 environment, 85 feedback, 85 homeostatic, 85 marine, 85 mechanism, 86 speed, 101 system, 86, 175 terrestrial, 85 thermostat, 87 Controllable, 161 Controversial, 93, 177, 180, 182 Conundrum, 41, 137 Convection, 31, 48, 107 Cook, E., 12 Cooling, 111

213 Cooperate, 28 Cooperation, 79, 149 Cooperators, 79 Copehagen, 108 Copenhagen, 108 Copper, 159 Coral cod, 78 Coral reef, 78 Core, 22 Coring, 72 Coriolis force, 47 Corporations, 120 Corporatocracy, 150 Correlation, 74 Cosmic rays, 75 Cosmologist, 15 Cosmology, 53 Countryside, 111 Coupling, 113, 182 Covalent, 45 Crank, 21 Crater, 105 Creationist, 57 Creature, 33, 53, 82 Credit, 121 crunch, 121, 151 Critics, 154 Crop farming, 114, 182 mono-culture, 111 range, 115 stands, 115 yield, 111 Cross-section, 44 Crutzen, Paul, 105 Cryogenics, 20 Cubical box, 18 Cultural attitudes, 160 convergence, 148 prejudices, 159 resistance, 138 Culture, 136 Cunning, 119 Cupidity, 119 Curate Anglican, 3 Currency, 130 Current, 44, 48 AC, 98 alternating, 98 DC, 98 Curriculum, 29 Curve-fitting, 67

214

C (cont.) Cushion, 17 Cyberspace, 120 Cycle, 21, 29, 43, 49, 54, 61, 74 Cylinder, 21 steel lined, 99 Cylinder head, 23 Cynical, 51

D Daly, H., 145 Danger, 131 Danish, 74 Darlington, 96 Darwin, 25, 51 Darwinian evolution, 57 variation, 53, 56 De Forest, Lee, 101 Death, 26, 104, 137 Debate, 112, 181 Debt, 121 Debt mountain, 121 Decay, 25, 33 De-coherer, 101 Decoupling, 118, 122, 139, 152 Deforestation, 2 Degeneration, 54 De-magnetise, 45 Democracy, 5 Democratic, 120 business, 154 countries, 135 government, 121, 130 organisation, 155 paradox, 133 party, 133 process, 133 Demographers, 148 Demographics, 181 Denaturation, 39 Denial climate change, 65 industry, 65 lobby, 77 Denialism, 76 Denialist causes, 76 Deniers, 68, 76, 93 Denizen, 159 Deoxy-sugar, 34 Depression, 151 Desert, 85, 178 Desertification, 139, 159

Index Design, 25, 101 Detoxification, 149 Detritus, 114, 182 Deutsche Bank, 152 Device, 102 Diagnose, 83 Diagnosis, 140 Diamond, 33 Dichlorodifluoromethane, 106 Diesel, Rudolph, 23 Diet, 35 fat, 35 protein, 35 rich, 35 sugar, 35 Digestive, 36 Digital imaging, 184 recreation, 184 Dinosaur, 112, 181 Diode, 101 Dipole, 20 Disaster, 104 Discharge tube, 101 Disease, 136 Dish, 48 Disorder, 19, 25, 27, 33, 40, 44, 45 Dissipative, 48 capacity, 54 reaction, 54 structures, 54 Distribution, 17, 118 Diversity, 80, 83 Divine, 51, 57 DNA, 52 Dobson, Gordon, 105 Doctor, 128 Dogma, 6 Domestic animals, 164 Dominant, 89 Donora, 104 Dotcom, 121 Double glazing, 87, 89, 94 Drilling, 71 Drug supply, 149 Dublin, 26 Dukes, Jeffrey, 64 Dunning-Kruger, 129 DuPont, 106 Dynamic systems, 57 Dynamics, 16–17

Index E Ears, 45 Earth, 1, 34, 57, 83 ancient, 40 atmosphere, 60, 65, 82, 102 biosphere, 60 biosystem, 161 capacity, 123 centre of climate, 60 cooling, 86 core, 94 crust, 102 disc, 178 early, 51, 54, 57, 59 ecology, 26 energetic, 51, 57 finite, 154 healthy, 64 history, 64 hot, 62, 106 icy orb, 88 images, 95 infinite, 144 life on, 137 lifeless, 88 model, 205 neighbour, 86 orbit, 63 planet, 4 spin, 44 surface of, 59 system, 79, 87, 89, 152 system model, 183 system thermostat, 164, 166 temperature, 54, 63 thermostat, 164 water supply, 104 East Germany, 169 Eco-balance, 64 Eco-biologist, 58 Ecocidal journey, 141 proclivity, 145 tendency, 139, 148 view, 139 Ecocide, 2, 4, 103 crime of, 139 cure for, 145 Ecogrid, 174 Ecological analogy, 127 balance, 84, 112, 138 concerns, 140

215 confinement, 110 deterioration, 89 disaster, 136 economics, 144 harm, 2 harvest, 136 health, 26 imperatives, 65 liabilities, 150 protection, 152 reality, 146 research, 82 services, 141 succession, 78, 141 sustainability, 156 systems, 79 terms, 96 vote, 123 Ecologist, 57 Ecology, 1, 10, 26, 149 dictates, 160 health, 7, 65 island, 80 local, 134 unsustainable, 127 Economic activity, 6 barrier, 114 bubble, 121 bust, 120 conditions, 118 developments, 12 emancipation, 119 expansion, 119 exploitation, 119 flows, 124 forecaster, 170 growth, 7, 65, 95, 118, 121, 145, 152, 168 imperative, 97 insight, 120 mistake, 126 model, 123, 137 progress, 6–8 resources, 175 ruin, 160 system, 7 thinking, 121 trajectory, 149 welfare, 123 wisdom, 121 Economics, 77 classical, 123 contemporary, 121 environmental, 125

216 evolutionary, 125–126 history of, 119 laws of, 127 off balance-sheet, 98 Economist, 13 Economizer, 113 Economy, 7, 118 borrow, 153 business-as-usual, 137 carbon, 105 cowboy, 154 debt driven, 127 democratic, 154 global, 121 lubricant, 124 new, 185 of scale, 156 oil based, 99 planned, 127 productive, 121 real, 13, 121, 139 real money, 121 reworking of, 160 spaceman, 154 U.S., 125 unstable, 127 US, 151 Eco-poison, 148 Ecosphere, 2, 135 Ecosystem, 55, 78, 82, 84, 86, 127, 141 analysis, 80 artificial, 93, 113 bio-diverse, 166 climax, 80, 84, 111, 134, 153 cooperating, 86 diverse, 86 efficiency, 81 energy processing, 82 evolution, 82 extensive, 86 interrelationships, 87 maintenance, 126 marine, 85, 146 mature, 79–80, 85 nascent, 79 natural, 85, 113, 181 organised entity, 82 poisoning, 135 regulation, 110 stress, 166 terrestrial, 85 Eco-thermodynamics, 82, 123 Eco-tyranny, 133 Ecuador, 120

Index Edison, Thomas, 101 Education, 5 college, 128 course, 128 mathematics, 128 school, 128 science, 128 soft subjects, 128 teaching, 128 Educational means, 148 Efficiency, 9–10, 14, 21–22, 98 Carnot, 207 high, 183 maximum, 172 optimum, 99 poor, 100 programmes, 180 railway, 99 Efficient enterprises, 155 Egg white, 34 Ehlrich, J.R., 127 Ehlrich, P., 136 Einstein, Albert, 11, 62 Elastic, 14 Elasticity, 32 Electric current, 173 diesel locomotive, 99 fields, 45 generator, 96 hedge trimmer, 100 motor, 96 railways, 100 trains, 98 vehicle, 99 Electrical battery, 102 circuit, 172 communications, 175 components, 180 efficiency, 172 engineering, 44, 98 failure, 173 gadgets, 180 generating station, 97 grid, 102 innovation, 98 network, 46 overload, 173 power, 98 science, 98 spark, 99

Index supply, 98 supply industry, 179 systems, 102 telegraph, 98 transformer, 98 utility, 102 Electricity bus-bar, 173 consumers, 102 entertainment use, 179 frivolous use of, 179 garden use, 179 generation, 170 generator, 176 grid, 152 gymnasium use, 170 home use, 179 hype, 176 parallel connection, 173 power available, 176 production, 176 pylon, 181 systems, 175 workplace, 179 Electrification, 98–99 Electrode, 173 Electrolyser, 173 Electrolysis, 172 Electrolyte, 172 Electromagnetic Wave, 32, 63 Electromagnetism, 43 Electron, 16, 20, 43–44, 56, 102 Electronic circuit, 102 components, 102 device, 183 equipment, 130 systems, 102 Electronics, 102, 175 consumer, 102 Elkins, P., 126 Elliptical orbit, 41 Emergence, 41, 54, 56 Emission, 105 containment, 164 per capita, 147 sink, 163, 166 target, 108, 170, 182 zero, 182 Emissions reduction of, 168 Empire, 120 Employee, 154

217 End user, 102 Endothermic, 55, 173 Energy, 2, 26 absorbed, 79 activation, 36 ancient sunshine, 181 bonanza, 110 bounty, 117 cellular, 28 changes, 36 charging, 56 cheap, 110 clean green, 150 companies, 133 concentrated, 83 conservation, 11, 13, 20–21, 33 conservation of, 11 constrained, 176 consumption, 2 content, 36, 85 degradation, 86, 93 degrading paths, 78 density, 32 dissipated, 79 driven, 87 efficiency, 69 elastic, 13 electric, 45 electromagnetic, 62 endurance, 80 energetic system, 125 exchange, 40 expenditure, 31 exploit, 126 exploitable, 79 external, 45 extraction, 36 flow, 21, 27, 36, 43, 52, 57, 82–83, 86, 113, 153 flux, 181 fossil, 89 fraction, 177 free, 31 from ancient sun, 126 Gibbs free, 38, 40 gradient, 49 guzzling, 179 hungry, 146 hydrogen, 173 inactivation level, 36 increase, 169 intensive lifestyle, 65 intercepted, 85 internal, 11, 13, 16, 21, 198

218 inventory, 32 invest, 80 kinetic, 11, 13, 17, 21 level, 88 losses, 83 magnetic, 45 mechanical, 13 mechanisms, 26 metabolic, 36 microstates, 18 mobilising, 28 muscular, 94 of ignition, 36 optimised, 79 oxydation, 28 penetration, 80 persistence, 81 photon, 31, 83, 87 potential, 13, 36, 46, 55, 56, 178 producing, 28 profligacy, 140 profligate, 179 quality, 12, 93 quantity, 12 rationed, 183 renewable, 143 reradiated, 85 reservoir, 22 resources, 53 sacrifice, 12 scarce, 180 sector, 136 security, 152 serviceable, 161 single source, 126 sink, 80 solar, 54 source, 33, 45 sources, 49, 149 storage, 55, 149 stored, 64 storing, 53 substance, 33 sun, 29 sustainability, 170 throughput, 81 transfer, 28, 33 transition, 58, 146, 183 transmission, 83 wasted, 79 wasteful, 145, 149 wasteful practices, 117 Engine, 10 automobile, 22, 99

Index block, 99 cycle, 21 diesel, 23 four stroke, 100 four-stroke, 23 gas-fuelled, 99 ideal, 21 ignition, 23 inefficiency, 98, 101 internal combustion, 99–100 jet, 101 radial, 100 two cycle, 99 Engineer, 9–10 German, 99 Engineering, 3, 118 electrical science, 128 enterprise, 8 evaluation, 176 history, 100 Institution, 7 lax practices, 98 mechanical, 13 prowess, 179 success, 103, 128 undergraduate, 128 England, 9 Enterprises, 156 Entertainment, 130 Enthalpy, 36, 205 Entrepreneur, 10 Entropy, 12, 15, 18, 26–27, 39–40, 44, 83, 94, 198 change in, 38 contravened, 94 decrease, 31, 38 export, 27 formula, 19 high, 19 increase, 148 incremental, 55 level, 57 low, 19 maximum, 18–19 maximum rate, 115 negative, 33 production, 56, 115 rise, 56 zero, 20 Environment, 7, 20, 22, 27, 31, 40, 46 Assessment Agency, 108 control, 100 control of, 101 cosmic, 53

Index degradation, 6 earth, 23 external, 80 global, 115, 183 marine, 179 natural, 168 provider, 124 re-establish, 168 waste, 94 watcher, 79 Environmental consequences, 64 damage, 140 degradation, 134, 179 desecration, 137 history, 104 ideal, 134 pollution, 154 sink, 85 threat, 160 variables, 82 Enzyme, 37 Epoch, 141 Equation differential, 205 Gibbs, 31, 33, 205 integro-differential, 207 stoichiometric, 30 Equator, 62, 106 Equilibrium, 2, 40, 44–45, 53–54, 80, 86 Error, 67 Ethane, 105 Ethical sea-change, 141 Ethics, 136 Eukaryote, 28 Europe, 3, 9, 98, 103, 108, 118, 128, 174 European Community, 174 Evaporation, 33 Evelyn, John, 103 Evergreen, 70 Evidence empirical, 154 Evil Empire, 131 Evolution, 25, 43, 58, 79 arrow of time, 56 cultural, 136 theory of, 78 Exchange, 118 Exergy, 85 Exhalation, 146 Exhaust, 21 Exhaust nozzle, 101 Exhaust pipe, 99 Existence, 41, 154 Exothermic, 38–39, 99, 173

219 Expansion, 23 Expansion chamber, 100 Expensive, 180 Experiment, 52 Explosion, 170 Exponential, 36 Externalities, 114, 139, 182 Externality, 114, 124 Extinction, 126 Extrapolate, 66 Extrapolation, 69 Extremum, 188

F Facebook, 185 Factory, 104 Fall, 46 Family, 150 planning, 148 Faraday, Michael, 98 Faraday, Michael, 130 Farming, 2–3, 84, 115, 164, 181 Fashion, 134 Fat, 35 Fatty acid, 37 Fauna, 8, 134 Feedback positive, 54, 138, 141, 161 processes, 123 Feed-forward, 138 Female emancipation, 3 Ferguson, Niall, 120 Ferment, 37 Fertility, 148 Fertilizer, 111, 165 Fiction, 27, 122 Field abandoned, 179 applied, 45 axial, 44 electric, 31, 51 gravitational, 31, 46 internal, 44 magnetic, 31, 51 observations, 70 Films, 131 Financial arena, 125 burden, 117 classes, 144 community, 118, 167 gradient, 126

220

F (cont.) incentives, 155 instruments, 156 killing, 119 liabilities, 150 pressure, 123 processes, 139 risk, 153 sector, 121 sphere, 125 stake, 155 support, 153 transaction, 121 wheeler-dealer, 119 world, 120, 123 Financier, 119, 128 Finiteness, 12, 114 Fire fighting, 135 Fish, 141 Fittest, 78 Flannery, Tim, 64, 138 Flask, 46 Flat-earthers, 76 Fleming, John A, 101 Flight simulator, 184 Flora, 8, 134 Fluctuation, 16 Fluid, 16, 48 Fluorine, 105 Flying machine, 100 Flywheel, 21 Foliage, 31–32 Food, 3, 30, 34, 36, 39, 81, 83 agency of, 112 chain, 83, 112, 166 combustion, 36 crops, 34 energy, 36 foodstuff, 34 intake, 34 production, 8 protein, 34 supply, 5 Footprint, 95 Force, 13 electrical, 36 gravitational, 31, 46 intermolecular, 20 randomising, 53 reaction, 101 Van der Waals, 20 Forcing, 106 Forest

Index border, 71 canopy, 64 carpet, 64 clearance of, 165 clearing, 3 climax, 149 ecosystem, 81 fire, 134, 145 floor, 134 mature, 79 natural, 146 primordial, 8 pristine, 115 rain, 85, 112, 159, 166 temperate zone, 2 Forge, 9 Formula, 35 mathematical, 148 Fossil fuel, 2, 7–8, 64–65, 112, 126 addiction, 136, 165 bonanza, 160 bounty, 64, 95 burning, 64–65, 73, 82, 88, 94, 103, 139, 161 cache, 144 cheap, 145, 180 combustible, 145 combustion, 103–104, 113, 163 consumption, 160 crunch, 151 elimination, 166 era, 152, 163 habit, 166 hoard, 161 hungry, 145 incineration, 95 inexhaustible, 140 inexpensive, 95 limitless, 117 manifestation, 161 petrol, 64 phase out, 151 power plant, 168 production, 149 prohibition, 160 replacement, 170 reserves, 161, 165, 169 route, 143 sequestered, 162 tax, 117 termination of, 148 unusable, 161 Fossil-fuel, 3 Fossils, 8, 141

Index Foundary, 9 Foundations, 39 Founder, 9 Four stroke, 23 Fourier, Jean Baptiste, 39, 95, 139 France, 99 Freedom, 5 Freeman, Dyson, 52 Free-market, 76 Free-time, 156 Free-trade, 76 Freight, 100 French, 10, 54 Freon, 106 Frequency, 31, 87 Friction, 13 Friedman, Milton, 12 Friendship, 150 Fructose, 34 Fruit, 34, 141 Fucose, 34 Fuel conspicuous consumption, 65 dependent, 110 injection, 23 mixture, 23 vehicle, 180 Furnishings, 87 Future, 69 civilised, 145 distant, 179 generations, 178 projection, 178 trends, 139 warming, 183 Future generations, 89

G Gadget, 6 Gaia, 65, 78, 82 Gaia hypothesis, 23, 85–86 Galactic restoration, 135, 140 Galactose, 34 Galaxy, 41 Gambler, 120 Gambling, 140 Gas, 1 absorption, 60, 73 atmospheric, 63 Atmospheric, 60, 73 Behaviour, 16 concentration, 70 ejection of, 101

221 emissions, 147 equilibrium, 16, 18, 193 exhaust, 99 greenhouse, 62, 65, 69, 73, 77, 86, 89, 95–96 hot, 20 ideal, 15–16, 21, 195 inert, 87, 199 kinetic theory, 17, 194 law, 22 molecule, 193 natural, 103 pressure, 16 principal, 68, 90 realisation, 19 regulation, 107 state, 19 upper bound, 161 usage, 101 working, 10 Gas-tight, 46 GDP, 120 Gears, 175 Generation, 79, 134 Generator, 98, 174 Genes, 53, 149 Genesis, 1 Gene-therapy, 129 Genetic, 56, 78, 82 record, 28 source, 139 Geochemical cycle, 86 Geo-engineering, 167, 176 Geological formation, 168 Geology, 6, 63 Geometric ratio, 3 Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas, 122 Geothermal power, 167 German, 22 Germany, 98 Gibbs equation, 15 Gibbs, J.W., 15, 39 Glacial epoch, 61 regime, 86 Glacier, 72 Glasgow, 9 Glasgow Empire Exhibition, 183 Glass, 8 double glazing, 94 enclosure, 59, 87 panes, 59, 87, 89

222

G (cont.) refractive index, 87 Glasshouse Glider, 100 Global capitalism, 126–127 communications, 130 cooling, 86 corporations, 133 credit crunch, 13 economy, 5, 68, 118, 121, 125 ecosystem, 87 freezing, 108 GDP, 120 greenhouse, 87 market, 150 mobilization, 151 patient, 82 phenomenon, 149 population, 5, 65, 108, 145 power consumption, 170 power industry, 151 reach, 178 reserves, 162 temperature, 2, 77 terrorism, 138 thermostat, 164 trade, 8 travel, 138 warming, 26, 59–60, 62, 65, 67, 72–73, 77, 82–83, 89, 92–93, 103, 115, 134 warming patterns, 94 warming threat, 65 Globalisation, 76, 143, 176 Globe, 2 Glucose, 32–33, 37–39 Glycogen, 39 GNP, 125 Gold, 118 Goleman, D., 142 Government, 92, 106 bonds, 119 conservative, 154 debt, 121 interference, 154 Gradient, 46, 48 complex, 57 degradation, 43 degrading, 57 dissipation, 48, 123, 125 driven, 43 energetic, 51 gravitational, 48 huge, 48

Index linear, 49 nature abhors, 51 niche, 125 pressure, 48, 51 reducers, 53 reducing, 51, 82 reduction, 46, 48, 51, 54, 78, 85, 94 regulate, 49 solar, 55 steepness, 49 sustained cycles, 51 temperature, 49 Grain, 16 Grassland, 79, 85 Gravitation, 25 Gravity, centre of, 20 Great Red Spot, 48 Great Smog, 104 Great Wall, 151 Greed, 120, 148 Greek, 34, 50 Green, 32 new deal, 151 sweet spot, 151 Greenhouse, 61 effect, 13, 77, 89 emissions, 144 garden, 94 gas, 77, 82, 89, 107–108 gas concentration, 165 gas volume, 161 goals, 160 mitigate effect, 176 Greenland, 2, 86 Greens, 96 Grid access, 177 connection, 176 continental scale, 174 DC, 174 egalitarian, 175 superconducting, 174–175 supercooled, 175 Ground, 33 Growth cessation, 70 control, 71 disastrous, 124 economic, 76 emissions, 68 endless, 122 exponential, 153 imperative, 155 infinite, 121

Index limits, 12 plant, 33 rate, 154 reduction, 59 sacrosanct, 150 successional, 82 Gulf of Mexico, 135, 146 Gut, 37

H Habitat, 82, 135 Haemoglobin, 38 Hansen, James E., 62, 133, 139 Hardship, 3 Hardwood, 79 Hawking, Stephen,, 54 HCFC, 105 Head, 45 Head-set, 183 Health, 5, 104, 137 Health and safety, 179 Health risk, 103 Heat, 59 absorbing, 55 caloric, 10 capacity, 8 conduction, 48, 207 conduction of, 87 convection, 48 convection loss, 87 death, 15 death toll, 109 decay, 12 demystified, 10 emission, 30 engine, 10, 14, 20, 22, 25 fluid, 10 free, 13 generated, 36 generation, 98 insulating layer, 95 latent, 9, 13, 33 longlevity, 109 loss, 83, 114, 182 low grade, 94 molecule vibration, 12 nature of, 10–11 of combustion, 99 pump, 14 radiant, 60, 71 record, 109 release, 94 sensible, 33

223 sink, 49 solar source, 49 specific, 9 transfer, 33, 60, 89 waste, 98 wave, 109 Heater, 89 Heating resistive losses, 98 systems, 98 Heavens, 176 Helium, 105, 171 Helmholtz, H.L.F., 11, 13 Hemisphere, 83, 113 northern, 2 Herbivore, 85, 114, 182 Heritage, 82, 134 Hertz, Heindrich, 101, 130 Heterogeneous, 79 Heterotroph, 114, 182 Hexoses, 34 Hickory, 79 High compression, 23 Historians, 8, 207 History, 3–4 Hockey stick, 66, 68 Homeopathy, 130 Homeostatic tendencies, 53 Homo-sapiens, 2, 110, 138, 141 Host cell, 28 Hot epoch, 160 Hulbert, Edward O., 60, 139 Human, 3, 35 activity, 65, 77, 114, 165 adult, 180 ancestors, 135 animal, 81 beings, 12 belief, 144 body, 29 brute strength, 180 cause, 77 civilisation, 96, 126, 183 components, 86 condition, 12 culture, 136 detritus, 139 economy, 12, 126 energy-hungry, 176 ethics, 142 evolution, 8 eye, 107

224

H (cont.) fertility, 148 footprint, 95 hunters impact, 112 improvement, 7 incompatible indolence, 179 industrialised, 64 ingenuity, 3 insignificance instinct, 150 journey, 160 knowledge, 120 liberty man power, 180 modern, 112 nascent man, 136 nature, 7 nervous system, 137 nomads numbers, 66, 146, 148 population, 3, 108, 146, 164, 179 progress, 6 propensity, 136 psyche, 137 race, 126, 135, 144 re-education resources, 175 scale, 14 smart, 179 society, 120, 140, 181 species, 4, 10, 131, 141, 146 survival, 127 tale, 4 tendency, 137 throng, 2 toll, 109 use, 108 warlike, 175 well-being, 148 withdrawal, 146 Humanities, 130 Humanity, 3 Humans, 26, 103 Hungary, 108 Hunter/gatherer, 2, 4–5 Hunting, 84 Hurricane, 51, 139 Husbandry, 2 Hydrocarbon, 21, 99, 172 Hydrochlorofluorocarbon, 105 Hydroelectric dam, 178

Index power, 169 scheme, 177 Hydrogen, 20, 30, 34, 45, 52, 72, 167, 171 conversion to, 173 filter press electrolyser, 173 gas, 175 liquid, 174 production, 173 tank electrolyser, 173 Hydrology, 161, 164 Hydro-system, 98 Hype, 170 Hypothesis, 64, 78

I Ice, 2 age, 2, 61, 66, 95, 108 Arctic, 141 core records, 86 cores, 66, 72 covered, 59, 86 sea, 141 sheet, 2, 72 sheets, 86 Ideal engine, 10 Identity, 150 Idiosyncratic, 130 Ignition, 99, 197 Illiterate, 129 Ills, 83 Illusion, 108 Imaging, 184 IMF, 120 Immaterial material, 11 Impermeable, 172 Implants Inanimate, 51 Incident, 59 Income, 156 Incompetence, 129 India, 177 Industrial applications, 100 art, 10 chemist, 106 civilization, 165 economy, 118 entrepeneurs, 143 realism, 165 revolution, 2, 10, 66, 88, 95, 115, 119, 163 society, 103, 181 world, 3, 114 Industrialisation, 65

Index Industry, 2, 8, 113 aeronautic, 175 automobile, 175 chemical, 175 haulage, 100 nascent, 120 plastic, 175 textile, 8–9 Inefficiency, 102 Inertia, 22, 105 Infant, 144 Inferiority, 128 Infinite, 119 Informational process, 12 Infrared, 32, 65, 85, 105 Infrastructure, 119, 153 Innovation, 102, 156 Insight, 137 Insolation, 209 Institution, 124, 156 Instrument, 2 Insulating layer, 88 Insulation, 89 Integration, 56 Intelligent design, 58 Inter-connectedness, 79 Interest, 121 Interfaces, 183 Inter-glacial, 86 Intermittency, 174 Internal, 21 Internal combustion, 99 Internal combustion engine, 96 Internalise, 137 International community, 174 consensus, 152 Internet, 77, 95, 100, 102, 128, 140, 183 Intervention, 51 Intestine, 38 Inventions, 6 Investment funds, 157 return on, 152 Investor confidence, 153 nervous, 153 panic, 153 Ions, 172 Iowa, 1 IPCC, 69, 77, 79, 129, 166, 169, 171 optimistic, 149

225 Ipod, 185 Iron, 8–9 Iron works, 9 Irreversible, 40 Isentropic Island, 80 Isothermal, 172 Isotope, 172 Israel, 51 Iteration, 68

J Jet engine, 97 Joule, J.P., 11 Journalist, 130 Joystick, 183 Junk Bonds, 121 Jupiter, 48

K Katchalsky, Aharon, 51 Katrina, 139 Kay, J., 54 Kettle, 62, 106 Keyboard, 183 Keynes, John Maynard, 127 Keynesian, 152 Keynesianism, 126 Kilimanjaro, 73 Kinetic, 180 Kinetic theory, 17 King, P.G., 121 Kirchhoff, Gustav, 62, 139 Kirshenbaum, S., 97 Koerner, C., 70 Korten, David, 122 Koschmeider, L, 48 Kovel, Joel, 153 Krebs cycle, 39 Krebs, H.A., 39 Kyoto, 108 Kyoto Protocol, 108

L Laboratory, 9 Labroides, 78 Laissez-faire, 150 Lake Nyos, Africa, 170 Land area, 179

226

L (cont.) usage, 179 Landscape, 78 Landslide, 170 Latitude, 86 Lavoisier, A.L., 10 Law, John, 119 Lawn mower, 180 Lawyer, 128, 143 Leaf, 31–32 Ledger, 121 Legal restriction, 118 Legislator, 136 Leisure, 156 Lenz’s Law, 45 Leontief, Wassily, 125 Leverage, 121 Leviathan, 104 Liberty, 119 Life, 26, 34, 54, 82, 94 animal, 30 beginnings of, 57, 78 biochemicals of, 83 chances, 119 characteristic of, 33 chemistry of, 26 civilised, 151 cohesiveness, 82 complex, 58 conducive to, 63 connected to, 82 critical to, 107 diverse forms, 83 elements of, 52 embryonic, 56 emergence of, 56, 78 facts of, 136 force, 33 forms, 82 function of, 53 genesis of, 57 incompatibility of, 39 intelligent, 141 inter-connectedness, 78 mechanisms, 26 microbial, 141 nascent, 85 organisms, 26 origin of, 57 origins of, 52, 57 plant, 26 pond, 85 prehistoric plant, 64 prelife, 54

Index primitive, 53 probability, 52 processes, 40 producing, 82 property of, 33 sciences, 51 set in motion, 82 spark, 34 stuff of, 51, 53 support, 123 thermodynamics of, 27, 39 tolerating, 146 vis viva, 34, 41 Lifestyle, 101, 130, 137, 145 Light, 32, 133 regulation, 122, 124 Lighting mercury arc, 98 systems, 98 Lilienthal, Otto, 101 Lindeman, F.A., 105 Link, 118 Lipid, 34–36, 38, 52 Lipman, Fritz Albert, 29, 39 Liquid, 20, 45 Liver, 38 Liverpool, 96 Living a lie, 149 communities, 82 organism, 41, 82, 94 standards, 147, 168 system, 40, 80 things, 82 Lloyd, Seth, 13 Loans, 121 Locomotive, 99 Lodge, Oliver, 101 Logic circuit, 102 Lohmann, Karl, 29 London, 9, 60, 104 London smog, 104 Long Island, USA, 174 Long-lived, 107 Loop, 22 Lord Kelvin, 11 Lotka, Alfred, 49 Lovelock, James, 64–65, 78, 86, 88, 90, 139, 167 Lung disease, 104 Lung tissue, 104 Lungs, 33, 38, 83 Luxury, 179

Index M Machine, 13, 94 economic, 123 tools, 98 Machine tool, 71 Machine tools, 28, 39 Machinery, 53 Machu Picchu, 185 Macro-economy, 127 Macromolecular, 28 Macromolecules, 30, 36 Macroscopic, 13, 57 Mae-Wan Ho, 52 Magma, 94 Magnet, 45 Magnetic bar, 44 current, 44 dipole moment, 44 effect, 44 fields, 44 gradient, 44 potential, 44 spin, 44 theory, 44 Magnetisation, 31 Magnetise, 45 Magnetism, 44 Magnets, 44 Mainstream, 86 Malicious, 76 Mammals, 141 Mammoth, 134 Management, 155 Manchester, 96 Manganese, 172 Manifestation, 129 Manipulator, 123 Mankind, 2, 65, 114, 143 Man-made, 25, 94 Mann, M.E., 68, 139 Man-power, 151 Manual, 25 Manufacture, 8 Manufacturer, 106 Maple, 79 Marconi, Guglielmo, 101, 130 Margalef, Ramon, 81 Marine, 86 organisms, 166 Market, 8, 119 competition, 156 economy, 141, 145 financial, 155

227 free, 119, 126, 128, 151 labour, 155 led expansion, 167 price, 117 share, 155 stock, 119 transactional, 125 uncontrolled, 127 Marqulis, L., 79 Mass, 11, 26 air travel, 100 conservation of, 11 produced, 99 transfer, 83 travel, 135 Massachusetts, 13 Material, 13, 31 cycling, 122 dielectric, 45 ferromagnetic, 44 magnetic, 44 non-magnetic, 44 polar, 45 raw, 124 transmission, 83 Materialism, 6 Mathematician, 59 Matter, 31 exchange, 40 organic, 34 Maturity, 80 Maunder Minimum, 75 Maxim, 176 Maximum, 32 Maxwell, James Clerk, 16, 62, 101, 130 Maxwellian, 17 Mayer, R.L., 11 McKinsey Institute, 180 Mechanical, 44 Media, 92, 111 coverage, 130 folk, 130 hype, 130 influence, 130 newspapers, 130 parody, 130 Medical advances, 140, 179 analogy, 95 Mediterranean, 80, 175 Membrane, 28, 37, 172 Memory, 180 Mercantile, 2 Mercury arc, 98

228 Meristematic, 70 Metabolic, 26 process, 39, 83 rate, 38 ratio, 81 tendencies, 53 Metabolic toll, 83 Metabolism, 28, 33, 35, 41, 94 Metabolites, 52 Metacognitive, 129 Metal, 45, 171 Meteorological Society, 60, 103 Methane, 59, 72, 105, 164 Methane hydrate, 161 Meuse Valley, 104 Mexico, 105, 177 Mickey Mouse, 45 Micro-climate, 71 Microcosmos, 79 Microscopic, 14, 57 Microspheres, 56 Middle Ages, 2, 118 Migration, 118 Mikulecky, D., 46 Milankovich, M., 61, 72 Military campaign, 175 Milky Way, 41 Mill, John Stuart, 7 Millennia, 2, 65, 88, 115, 164 Millennialist, 6 Mind, 137 Mind-set, 135 Mineral carbonates, 169 run out, 170 shortage, 158 Mines, 8 Mine-shaft, 46 Miniscule, 27 Mirrors, 176 Miscalibration, 129 Misinformation, 92, 130 Mitochondria, 28, 70 MMR, 129 Mobile, 102, 182, 185 Modern capitalism, 154 civilisation, 8 life, 7 world, 12 Mogul, 135 Mole, 30–31 Molecular activity, 28

Index collision, 251 complexity, 57 motion, 48 resonance, 88 structuring, 56 Molecule, 2, 11, 21, 31 monomer, 56 potassium, 172 prelife, 56 replicating, 57 Molecules, 15, 17 replicating, 57, 78 Molina, M., 105 Momentum, 15, 21, 25, 32 Monbiot, George, 77, 161 Money, 119 creation, 121 driven, 127 flow, 153 flow of, 125 Mono-culture, 164 Monomer, 39 Monoplane, 100 Monosaccharides, 34 Montane, 70 Monte Carlo, 66 Montreal Protocol, 108 Moon, 151, 178 Mooney, C., 95 Moonshine, 13 Morowitz, H., 52 Morowitz, H.J., 39, 43 Mortality, 104, 108 Mother nature, 12, 87 Motif, 112 Motion Brownian, 16 electron, 44 irregular, 16 random, 16, 44, 48 reciprocating, 20 rotary, 21 sensing, 184 Motivation, 69, 97 Motor control, 99 Mountain, 69, 86 Mouth, 37 Multi-cylinder, 100 Multimedia literate, 185 Multi-national, 133 Municipal, 3 Murphy law, 176 Muscle, 36, 80

Index Mutual benefit, 28 Mutualists, 78 Mysterious, 27, 79 Myth, 136

N NASA, 1 National debt, 121 economy, 6, 114, 124 Nations developing, 146 industrialised, 146 targeted, 160 Natural biosphere, 114, 181 caverns, 169 gas, 164 land, 158 physical laws, 152 recycling, 163 selection, 53 system, 114 Natural gas, 75 Nature, 19, 26, 87, 92 Naval Research Laboratory, 60 Naysayer, 75, 139 Neanderthals, 136 Negentropy, 27, 31, 33, 94 Neo-conservatives, 155 Neo-liberal, 121 Nernst, H.W., 20 NET, 122 Netherlands, 107 Networking, 79 New Deal, 151 New Scientist, 76 New South Wales, 76 Newcomen, Thomas, 8–9, 96 Newspaper, 130 Newton, Isaac, 62 Nickel, 171 Niger Delta, 131 Nitrogen, 34, 52, 59, 71, 104, 165, 174 Nitrous Oxide, 66, 164 Nobel Prize, 36 Noise, 179 Noisy, 66 Nomadic, 134 Non-biological evolution, 51 Non-equilibrium, 30, 41, 79, 82

229 conditions, 52 Non-linear, 44 Non-reflecting, 31 Non-scientist, 129 Non-shareholder, 155 Normalise, 68 North Africa, 174 North America, 60, 71, 108 Northcott, M., 6 Northern Hemisphere, 66 Novelist, 131 Nuclear bomb, 170 breeding ratio, 171 chain reaction, 170 fast reactor, 171 fission, 171, 178 fusion, 167, 178 fusion reactor, 170 option, 171 power, 167, 172 power generation, 179 reactor, 171 risk, 103 stable reaction, 171 station, 171 technology, 171 thorium reactor, 171 Nucleation, 88 Nucleotide, 53, 56 Nucleus, 28, 44–45 Numeracy, 128 Nutrition, 83

O Oak, 79 Ocean, 40, 55 acidification, 169 deep, 169, 177 habitat, 158 sink, 162 storage, 168 Official, 104 Offspring, 57, 82 Ohmic loss, 102 Oil, 75 barrel, 99 bonanza, 98, 110 cod liver, 34 consumption, 83 crude, 161 drill for, 144 drilling, 136

230

O (cont.) olive, 34 palm, 34 powered i.c. engine, 98 production, 169 shales, 161 silicone, 48 surface, 48 warm, 48 well, 104 whale, 34 Oil Creek, 98 Oleine, 34 Open system, 31, 40 Optical, 32 reflection, 59 reflective mirror, 167 transmission, 59 Optimum efficiency, 10 Orb, 59 Orbit, 44 Order, 26, 40, 43, 45 Organic compound, 104 matter, 115 molecule, 30, 57 polymers, 52 reaction, 55 system, 40 Organism, 36–36, 41, 49, 51, 79 pioneering, 79 Organisms, 25, 30 diverse, 123 Ornament, 12 Orthogonal, 16 Oscillate, 51 Otto cycle, 23 Otto engine, 23 Otto, Nicolaus, 23 Outer space, 54, 84 Overhead line, 174 Overpower, 107 Owners, 156 Ownership, 136 Oxygen, 29–30, 33–36, 38, 45, 72, 99–100, 104, 172 Ozone, 60, 72, 104 atmospheric, 96 blue, 107 concentration, 107 depletion, 107 destruction, 131 eating, 105 hole, 105

Index International Commission, 105 layer, 107 molecule, 106 protection, 107 research, 105 service, 107 thinning, 105 Ozone hole, 76

P Pacific Ocean, 12 Pakistan, 1 Palliative, 170 Panama, 119 Panda, 126 Pandemic, 135, 181 Parasite, 79 Participation, 150 Particle, 16, 19 Particulate, 104 Particulates, 88 Patient, 82 Pauling, Linus, 36 PCA, 66 PEM, 171 Pendulum, 11 Pennsylvania, 98, 104 People, 33 Periphery, 41 Perkin, John, 149 Permeable layer, 107 Perpetual motion, 13 Persuasion, 137 Petrol, 99 Petroleum well, 98 Pharoahs, 71 Philosopher, 7 Philosophy, 26 Phosphate, 39 Phosphorus, 34, 52 Photon, 30–31 bombardment, 30, 56 energetic, 57 energy, 33 frequency, 31 high energy, 54 incident, 32 light, 61, 107 re-radiated, 32, 61 solar, 31–32, 106 Photosynthesis, 29–32, 70–71, 82, 94 Photosynthetic capability, 166

Index Photo-voltaic, 126 Phylogeny, 53 Physicist, 9, 60 Physics, 57 gravitational, 178 Physiology, 84 Pilot, 184 Pine, 79 Pioneer, 95 Piston, 21 Planck, Max, 32, 61, 139 Planck’s constant, 61 Planet, 2, 6, 64 additional, 113 boundless, 144 degraded, 134 finite, 121 habitable, 183 history of, 86 imprint, 118 polluters, 133 resource-depleted, 136 scarring of, 135 surface, 62, 106 vastness of, 66 Planetary axis, 61 bounty, 110 crust, 161 disfigurement, 135 future, 141 home, 135 movement, 61 poisoning, 135 real estate, 166 recovery, 146 rubbishing, 140 system, 89 temperature, 59 thermostat, 146 warming, 59, 103 Planners, 135 Plant, 29–30, 32 Plate, 45 Platinum, 171 Playing cards, 19 Plutonium, 171 Poet, 26 Pole Star, 61 Poles, 105 Political agenda, 162 arena, 143 classes, 150

231 freedom, 118 leaders, 167 opinions, 131 Politician, 65, 69, 107, 131 Politics electoral suicide, 150 progressives, 150 Polluter, 133 Pollution, 100, 111, 113 Polymer, 39 Polymerise, 56 Polynomial, 67 Ponzi, 121 Poor, 119 Popular consumerism, 150 resistance, 135 Population, 2, 8, 114, 128 cap, 146 dilemma, 114 expansion, 6 explosion, 146 global, 136 growth, 3, 66, 146 issue, 165 level, 3 local, 133 mobile, 136 optimum, 181 peak, 148 policy, 148 predator, 185 prey, 85 stabilisation, 148 stable, 152 statistics, 146 swelling, 167 theory, 3 trajectory, 148 unsustainable, 145 unsustainable level, 114 Porritt, Jonathan, 5, 152 Portugal, 175 Postulate, 137 Potassium, 50 Potassium Hydroxide, 172 Potential, 20, 46 Poultry, 141 Poverty, 3 Power calculation, 178 carrying capacity, 174 catalytic, 56 coal-fired, 169

232

P (cont.) collection sites, 177 conservation, 33 consumption, 183 corridors of, 150 density, 32, 178 electric, 98 electrical, 151 electrical loss, 102 emitted, 33 explosive, 99 extracted, 102 flight, 100 flow balance, 88 geothermal, 174, 178 guesstimates, 177 horse, 9, 180 hungry, 120 hydroelectric, 177 hydrogen, 176 levers of, 143 mechanical, 14, 93 motive, 9, 100 muscle, 39, 179 nuclear, 176 ox physical, 118 plant, 104 primary source of, 114 pulsed, 100 radiant, 178 radiated, 87 received, 33 renewable, 4, 141, 174–175 re-radiated, 138 solar, 27, 62, 176 source, 38, 172 station, 94, 99, 171, 178 steam, 8 stroke, 23 structures, 12 sun, 8 supply, 176 supply slump, 179 thermodynamic, 134 tidal, 178 transition, 178 transmission, 87 ultimate, 176 undersea transmission, 175 unit, 99 vacuum, 9 waste, 139 Pre-biosphere, 55

Index Prebiotic, 53 Precipice, 138 Precipitation, 71 Predator, 5, 79 Predecessor, 134 Predicament, 129 Pre-DNA, 57 Pregnancies, 148 Prelife, 54 Pre-RNA, 57 Pressure, 21, 46 Priestly, Joseph, 34 Prime mover, 100 Primordial earth, 53 evolution, 53 past, 52 soup, 40, 53, 55, 57, 78 swamp, 57 Principal component, 68 Private company, 9 corporation, 9 investors, 153, 156 Probability, 17, 19, 40 Process non-linear, 141, 160 Processor, 102 Production, 81 Productivity, 156 Products, 124 Profit, 117, 144 Profitability, 126 Programme, 128 Projection, 68 Prokaryote, 28 Propaganda, 131, 137 Propellant, 106 Propeller, 100, 175 Propulsion, 100 Prosecution, 139 Prosperity, 3, 110, 150 Protein, 35–36, 38, 53 active, 36 biomass, 36 denaturation, 36 replacement rate, 36 synthesis, 54 Proteins, 34 Protocol, 108 Proton, 74, 172 Proxy, 75 data, 2, 66 ice core, 2

Index reconstructions, 66 record, 163 Pseudo-science, 77 Psychology, 137 Ptolmaic astronomy, 124 Public, 69 distrust, 130 general, 129 good, 130 sceptical, 130 sector, 155 Public pressure, 107 Publication Nature, 161 Publicity, 107 Purposefulness, 79 Puzzle, 61 PV diagram, 21 Pyramid scheme, 121 Pyramidal, 83 Pyramids, 185

Q Quantum, 44, 61 computing, 13 mechanical, 88 Quarks, 137 Quasars, 137 Quasi-equilibrium, 33

R Racker, E., 39 Radiation, 32 absorption, 62, 105 black body, 33, 62, 88 electromagnetic, 62–63 infrared, 60 law, 62 low frequency, 87 secondary, 88 solar, 61 sun, 59 ultraviolet, 107 Radiative forcing, 62 transfer, 60 Radical, 51 Radio, 101, 130 Radiocarbon, 70 Railways, 100 Rain, 105, 111 Raindrop, 104

233 Rainhill Trials, 96 Rapp, D., 75 Rapture, 6 Rasmussen Reports, 77 Ray, 32, 59 Reactive, 107 Reality, 137 Receiver, 101 Recession, 153 Rectifier, 173 Refrigerant, 106 Refrigerator, 10, 14, 21 Registrar, 104 Regulation, 118, 122 Relationship, 32 Religion, 6, 136 Religious objections, 148 Religious leader, 15 Reluctance, 44 Remedy, 82 Renewable, 2 energy, 150 genre, 2 infrastructure, 175 power, 152 source, 104, 146 sources, 181 Renewables, 117, 154 age of, 117, 151 based civilization, 165 mix, 181 revolution, 165 Replication, 53 Replicative tendency, 57 Reproduction, 43 Reputation, 120 Reradiation, 87 Reservoir, 22, 94, 177 Residents, 133 Residue, 94 Resistance, 102 Resistor, 46 Resonance, 88 Resources, 3, 8 inexhaustible, 123 Respiration, 34, 36, 39 Respiratory, 104–105 mechanism, 36 process, 39 quotient, 36 Resynthesise, 83 Revenues, 121

234

R (cont.) Reversible, 11, 14 Revolution agrarian, 8 industrial, 8 transport, 99 Rich, 120 Right wing, 76 Rivers, 104 RNA, 53, 57 Robot, 146 Rocket, 96 Roebuck, John, 9 Role model, 128 Rolling Mill, 9 Romans, 9, 135 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 152 Roots, 32 Rowland, F.S., 105 Royal Meteorological Society, 60 Runaway, 139 Russia, 1, 125 Ruthenium, 172

S Sabotage, 175 Safeguards, 144 Sagan, D., 41, 43, 53, 81 Saliva, 39 Salzer, M.W., 69 Sampling, 57 San Francisco, 98 Sapphire, 48 Satellite, 95, 105, 175 Saturation, 170 Scandinavia, 175 Scattering, 105 Scenario, 69 Sceptic, 76 Scepticism, 3 Schneider, E.D., 27, 41, 43, 53–54, 82, 85 School, 10, 29 Schrodinger, Erwin, 26, 31, 41 Schwartz, Barry, 122 Schweickart, David, 154 Science, 10, 27 abiotic, 125 averse, 140, 144 bad, 75 biotic, 125 breakthrough, 129 challengeable, 139 climate, 65, 108

Index community, 96, 129 consensus, 77 debunking, 108 denial, 108 denial of, 140 detrimental to, 129 disservice to, 76 distrust of, 136 ecological, 86 economic, 121 electrical, 44 erroneous, 75 established, 139 gliding, 100 ignorance of, 128 language of, 128 latest, 164 legitimate, 57 mainstream, 129 material, 101 media coverage, 129 natural, 122 public resistance, 128 quirky, 75 rules of, 56 scare, 130 sceptics state-of-the-art story success, 129 trivialised wacky, 130 Science-fact Scientific certainty community, 52 consensus, 82 disquiet endeavour, 26 enquiry evidence findings, 130 illiteracy, 65 literature, 26 narrative, 130 oddity, 105 principles, 56 warnings, 139, 144 Scientist, 10, 60 anthropological, 65 genuine misguided, 76 reputable, 75 Scientists

Index Indian Scottish, 9 Season, 70 Seaweed Second World War, 26 Secretiveness Seedlings, 70 Selective advantage, 56 Self-catalysis Self-correcting, 23 Self-deception, 137 Self-delusion, 137 Self-expression, 128 Self-ignition, 23 Self-interest Self-organisation Self-perpetuation, 49 Self-preservation Self-regulating Self-replication, 56 Semi-conducting, 102 Sensitivity Sequester, 162 Sequestered Sequestration, 169 Shaft, 21 Shareholder, 144, 155 Ship, 2 Shipbuilding, 8 Shockley, William, 102, 130 Shore Short-sighted, 79 Shrub-land, 79 SI unit, 9 Sightless Silver bullet, 172 Simplification Sinister, 76 Sink, 37 Skin cancer, 107 Smelting, 9 Smith, Adam, 119 Smog, 104 Smoke, 18, 104 Smoking, 82 Snooker, 17 Snow, 72 Social change market meaning, 150 networking progress, 7 status, 150

235 Socialism, 149 Socialist, 120 Society, 137 open Software, 23, 67 Soil, 29 Soil erosion, 115 Solar activity, 65, 73, 138 cell constant, 32 cycle, 74, 96 energy, 87 energy envelope event, 65 farm, 114 flux, 115 hypothesis, 73–74 insolation, 74 irradiance, 1 panel, 3 photon, 83, 87 power, 64, 107, 169, 180 powered ship, 176 radiation, 85, 178 ray, 87 ray trapping, 87 reflection, 87 supply, 153 system, 33, 41 Solarium, 87 Solid, 20 Solvent, 106 Soot, 104 Sophisticate, 5 Soup, 40 promordial, 52 Sources inexhaustible, 139 unconventional, 161 South America, 3, 146 Soviet Union, 131 Space, 1, 26, 54, 59, 88 annular, 174 exploration, 128 universe, 187 Spacecraft, 25 Spark, 101 Spark plug, 21 Species, 2, 28, 38 censure, 139 complementary, 78 contraction, 160 contributing, 79

236

S (cont.) cooperation, 149 cooperative, 78 diversity, 80 dominant, 89 emergence of, 56 evolution of, 54 interdependence, 87 semi-detached, 126 survival, 127, 181 tropical, 108 Spectacles, 184 Spectroscopy, 60, 72 Spectrum, 31, 107 Speculators, 153 Sphere, 113, 182 Spherical shell, 183 Sponsorship, 6 Sputnik, 151 Stability, 64, 85 Stalagmites, 66 Standardisation, 66 Star, 63 Starch, 37, 70 Stars, 60 State equilibrium, 52 organised, 40 tyranny, 133 unique, 46 State-of-the-art, 28 States, 15 Statistic over-optimistic, 178 polling, 77 Statistical approach, 17 average, 18 disorder, 25 distribution, 18 likelihood, 52 minefield, 69 nature, 17 record, 161 Statistics, 18, 62 Status-quo, 157 Steam, 2, 8 age, 95 beam engine, 8 condensation, 8 cylinder, 8 engine, 9–10, 21, 93, 97, 103 engineer, 6 jet, 8

Index liners, 96 locomotive, 98–99 piston, 8 power, 9–10 pressure, 8 pump, 8 pumping-engine, 8 railways, 96 reheat, 97 revolution, 10, 103 ships, 96 superheated, 97 temperature, 97 tugs, 96 turbine, 98, 102, 170 valve, 21 Steel, 10 Stephenson, Robert, 96 Stern, Sir Nicholas, 77 Stochastic, 57 Stock Market, 119 Stockton, 96 Stoichiometric, 34 Stop-cock, 46 Storage battery farm, 175 compressed gas, 175 electricity, 176 flywheel, 175 formations, 172 guarantee, 170 location, 169 massive, 174 pumped hydro, 174 super-cooled magnet, 175 tanks, 173 thermal, 176 underground, 170 Storm damage, 175 Strategy, 19, 127 Stratocumulus, 167 Stratosphere, 101, 107, 167 Stratospheric, 105 Streams, 104 Stroke, 21 Structure kinetic, 49 robust, 49 supramolecular, 56 Student, 12, 128 Sub-continent, 171 Subprime, 121 Substance, 34 Suburbia, 179

Index Succession, 79–80 Suez Canal, 151 Sugar, 30, 34, 36–37, 70 Sugar grains, 146 Sulphate, 167 Sulphur, 34, 52 Sun, 2, 33, 54, 62–63, 66 Sunlight, 8, 31 ancient, 64, 94, 105 fossil, 64 power of, 64 reflection, 167 Sunshine, 2, 174 Sun-spot, 73–74 Superconductivity, 174 Super-grid, 174 Superiority, 129 Supervision, 155 Supremacy, 136 Surface, 32 temperature, 55 tension, 48 Surfing, 185 Surroundings, 53 Survival, 78 Suspension, 11 Sustainability, 136, 142, 150, 152, 182 Sustainable capitalism, 145 civilisation, 126 future, 146 level, 115 power systems, 175 rate, 115 SDC, 127 society, 14 structures, 127 Sustenance, 82 Sweden, 9, 60 Symbiotic, 30 Symbolic language, 150 Synthesis, 29, 39 System adiabatic, 93 belief, 13 capacity, 54 capitalist, 139 climax, 115 closed, 15, 19, 53, 94 collapse, 139 commissioning, 136 complex, 26 complexity, 81

237 cycling, 57 dissipative, 55 distribution, 175 equilibrium, 93 gradient reducing, 82 maturity, 81 multiple expansion, 97 non-equilibrium, 56, 92 open, 31 planning, 55 political, 95 railway, 96 randomness, 19 sustainable, 83 symbiotic, 94 thermodynamic, 55 three dimensional, 183 Systems complex, 101 electronic, 102 Szent-Gyorgi, Albert, 41

T Table, 17 Table-spoon, 62, 106 Tactile, 184 Tar sands, 161 Taste, 37 Tax, 5, 153 flat-rate, 156 Taxation, 122 Taxes, 76 Technical innovation, 103 skills, 128 Technocrat, 122 Technofix, 160, 167 Technological advances, 118 expertise, 179 feasibility, 169 focus, 159 growth, 96 perspective, 165 progress, 97 realm, 135 society, 129 wizardry, 121 Technology, 2–3, 96 3D, 184 advance, 136 available, 179 benign, 175

238

T (cont.) break-through, 178 conventional, 175 disaster, 176 failure, 176 inefficient, 139 innovative, 126 Institute of, 13 juggernaut, 159 mature, 172 nanotechnology, 6 railway, 97 railway network, 97 salvation, 159 smart, 175 spectroscopic, 105 steam, 8 success, 103 whizz-kids, 6 Teenagers, 185 Telegraph, 101 Teleological, 26, 126 Telephone, 101 Telephony, 98 Television, 101, 107, 128, 130, 185 Teller, William, 171 Temperate, 2 Temperature, 17, 48–49, 65, 72, 109 absolute, 11 absolute zero, 20 air, 60 atmospheric, 40 average, 60 average global, 138 black body, 32, 85 body, 36 cell, 27 critical, 161 cycling, 70 difference, 93 earth, 87 electrolysing, 173 equilibrium, 89 final, 161 fluctuation, 66 geothermal, 56 global, 66, 67 global rise, 4, 67, 170 gradient, 49, 51, 57, 86 graph, 66 high, 34 ignition, 99 interface, 20 low, 70

Index measurement, 66 molecular velocity, 20 normal, 40 northern hemisphere, 74 records, 66–67, 73 reduction, 85, 166 regulation, 36 rise, 74 room, 174 safe, 149 scale, 11 surface, 60 treatment, 70 zero, 20 Ten Commandments, 140 Tension, 31 Terrestrial, 86 sink, 182 Texas, 99 Textile mills, 9 Textiles, 10 Theft, 119 Theology, 27 Theory, 10 Thermal agitation, 13, 17, 21–23, 25, 27, 41, 46, 57, 62 conductivity effects, 25 efficiency, 98, 100 energy, 26, 37, 53, 57, 101 equation of state, 16 geothermal sources, 54 influences, 56 insulation, 95 kinetic energy, 20 motion, 13 shuffling, 19 systems, 96 Thermionic emission, 101 Thermo-chemistry, 9 Thermodynamic action, 40 analogy, 128 analysis, 125 dictates, 160 engine, 95 equilibrium, 39, 138 giant, 11 goal, 79 hypothesis, 57 imperative, 36, 47, 57, 179 interactions, 41 interpretation, 125

Index laws of, 139 limit, 100, 161 paradigm, 94 perspective, 80, 117, 123 processes, 55, 78 reality, 146 strictures, 144 system, 31 terms, 71, 166 trends, 163 waste, 114 Thermodynamics, 10–11, 55, 58, 80, 87, 94, 140, 149 arrow of time, 56 biological, 28 conventional, 39 equations, 55 equilibrium, 2, 20, 40, 89, 125 first law, 11–13, 22, 33, 62, 88, 94, 114, 183, 199 fourth law, 44 irreversible, 51 laws, 33, 59 laws of, 13, 31, 41, 47, 59, 94, 107, 127, 139 living things, 30 logic, 56 metabolism, 34 non-equilibrium, 43, 51, 54, 57, 86, 94, 125, 148, 152 power of, 87, 93 primitive, 139 principles of, 124 prism, 26, 125 science of, 26, 118 second law, 11–14, 17, 22, 25, 27, 30, 40, 44–46, 55–56, 58, 62, 83, 103, 134 system, 31 third law, 20 warming, 161 zeroth law, 20 Thermometer, 20 Thermostat, 2, 23, 162 broken, 64 control, 87 cooling vents, 89 earth system, 89 restoration, 166 Thermostatic correction, 165 Third Reich, 151 Third World, 176 Thomas Malthus, 3 Thomson, William, 11

239 Thorium, 171 Threshold, 48 Tickell, Oliver, 108 Tidal, 3 barrage, 178 estuary, 3 movement, 178 power, 169 pull, 178 resources, 178 stream, 178 Tide, 3 Time, 25 Timescale, 70 Timetable, 108 Tin, 8, 160 Tipping-point, 141 Tissue leaf, 30 muscular, 29 respiration, 39 Todd, Alexander, 29 Tombstone, 19 Tornado, 47, 51 Torque, 100 Touch sensitive, 183 Tourists, 135 Town, 5, 111 Town-scapes, 165 Tract, 36–37 Traction, 99 Trade deficit, 127 imbalances, 127 surplus, 127 Trading, 114, 182 democratic, 156 profit, 156 Train gear, 99 passenger, 99 Trans-continental, 176 Transformer, 176 Transistor, 96, 102 Transition ordered, 151 planned, 149 smooth, 154 to renewables, 151 years, 151 Transmission hydraulic, 99 line, 99

240

T (cont.) loss, 177 of waste, 114, 182 waste, 114 Transmitter, 101 Transport, 98, 128 Travel, 26 Treadmill hedonic, 5 Tree age, 71 damage, 104 growth, 71 measurements, 71 ring, 71 ring-width, 71 size, 71 treeline, 71 varieties, 80 Tree rings, 66 Treeline, 70–71 Trickle down, 119 Tricycle, 99 Triode, 101 Trophic diagram, 114, 182 form, 114 level, 83, 85 pyramid, 83 region, 114, 182 shell, 83 sphere, 114 Tropic of Cancer, 61 Tropic of Capricorn, 61 Troupe, 44 Truth, 11 Tungsten, 172 Turbine, 176 Tutu, 44 Twister, 48 Twitterers, 130 Tyndall, John, 60, 118, 139

U U.S.A., 3, 6 UFO, 130 UK, 128 UK Government, 77 UK Prime Minister, 144 Underwood, D.A., 121 Uneducated, 129 Uniqueness, 48 United Nations, 148, 160

Index United States, 9, 111, 120, 148 Universe, 12, 15, 41, 58, 136 University, 9, 128, 155 Unpalatable, 180 Unpolarised, 20 Unsustainable, 114, 150 Uranium, 159, 171 Urban, 5 Urea, 38 USA, 77, 103, 128 Useful work, 12, 18, 21 Utah, 64 Utilitarian, 27

V Vaccines, 76 Vacuum, 27, 88, 102 Vacuum, tube, 102 Valve, 23, 46 Vandalism, 135 Vapour, 21, 60, 71 Variants, 43 Vega, 61 Vegetable, 34, 141 Vegetarian, 182 Vegetarianism, 166 Vegetation, 86, 164 Vehicle, 94 delivery, 180 hoist, 180 numbers, 136 Three wheeled, 99 Velocity, 16 distribution, 16–17 equilibrium, 19 Maxwell distribution, 18 Maxwellian, 18 molecular, 16 Venice, 119 Venus, 86 Vessel, 16 Vested interest, 107 Victims, 104 Vidal, John, 131 Video, 184 Vienna, 19, 107 Virtual cocoon, 184 reality, 184 time, 185 Virtuality, 184 Virus, 2, 95 Virus-like, 53

Index Visual, 184 pollution, 179 Volcanic, 94 Voltage, 45, 174 Volume, 21 Voluntary, 147 Vortex, 47

W Wages, 155 War, 2 Warburg, 39 Warm future, 108 Warming, 2 air, 87 anthropogenic, 89 land, 87 mechanism, 95 run-away, 183 sea, 87 surfaces, 87 Washington, 150 Waste, 95, 97, 104 recycling, 134 Watch, 180 Watcher, 79 Water, 2, 30–32, 37, 46 clean, 114, 125, 130 decompose, 172 dipolar, 45 distilled, 45 droplet, 86 flow, 2, 52 fluid, 48 gush, 47 H2O, 30, 34 light penetration, 85 molecule, 45, 85, 172 pond, 85 power, 8 rotation, 47 sea spray, 167 spiral, 47 supply system, 104 tight, 33 turbine, 98 vapour, 60, 73, 88 wheel, 2 Watt, James, 9–10, 66 Wave farm, 179 power, 169, 179

241 radio, 101 Wealth creation, 6 Wealthy, 6 Weather, 2, 5, 148 Weinburg, Steven, 12 Welfare, 119 Wellbeing, 120 West Virginia, 133 Weyburn, Canada, 169 Wheels, 100 Whirling eddies, 41 Whirlpool, 48, 51 Wicken, J.S., 53, 55–58, 78 Wieland, 39 Wii, 184 Wind, 2 farm, 179 flow, 2 Germany, 174 mill, 2 patterns, 51 power, 8, 169 powered ship, 176 Scotland, 174 turbine, 181 Wood, 2, 9 Work, 94 Worker community, 155 council, 155 rewards, 156 Workforce, 155 Workhorse, 100 Working agent, 15 Working fluid, 48 World, 3, 137, 147 business, 156 complex, 137 computer generated, 183 developed, 170 developing, 111 energy limited, 127 fantasy, 183 financial, 121 free, 131 industrial, 29, 161 industrialised, 112, 129 interconnected, 65, 153 microscopic, 183 modern, 6 nations of, 69 natural, 12, 25, 46, 53, 57, 113, 127, 185 non-biological, 51

242

W (cont.) outside, 139 physical, 12 real, 13, 123, 184 rich, 8 RNA, 53 virtual, 182 Western, 130 World Bank, 120 Worldwide, 175 Wright brothers, 100 Wright, Orville, 100 Wright, Wilbur, 100

Index Y Yale, University of, 15 York, University of, 184 Youngster, 128

Z Zero mean, 68 Zero-costed, 111 Zinc, 159