Seasonality and Agriculture in the Developing World: A Problem of the Poor and the Powerless

Seasonality and Agriculture in the Developing World

Seasonality and Agriculture in the Developing World A Problem of the Poor and Powerless

GERARD J. GILL Program Leader Winrock International Institute for Agricultural Development

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Published by the Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CBZ IRP 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY IOOII, USA 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Australia © Cambridge University Press 1991 First published 1991 Printed in Great Britain by the University Press, Cambridge British Library cataloguing in publication data

Gill, G. J. Seasonality and agriculture in the developing world: a problem of the poor and powerless. 1. Tropical rural regions. Economic conditions. Seasonal variation 1. Title 330.91754 Library of Congress cataloguing in publication data

Gill, Gerard J. Seasonality and agriculture in the developing world: a problem of the poor and powerless / Gerard J. Gill. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN o 521 38257 2 hardback

1. Agriculture - Economic aspects - Developing countries. 2. Crops and climate Economic aspects - Developing countries. 3. Rural poor - Developing countries. 1. Title. .G;5 1991 '4 - dc2O 90-37853 CIP ISBN o 521 38257 2 hardback

'I say to the father of my child, "Father of Podi Sinho," I say, "There is no kurakkan in the house, there is no millet and no pumpkin, not even a pinch of salt. Three days now and I have eaten nothing but jungle leaves. There is no milk in my breasts for the child." Then I get foul words and blows. "Does the rain come in August?" He says. "Can I make the kurakkan flower in July? Hold your tongue, you fool. August is the month in which the children die. What can I do?"'

Contents

page x xii xiii xvi

hist of illustrations List of tables Preface A cknowledgements

i Introduction A model of the consumption effects of seasonality The challenge of seasonality z The sources of seasonality Climatic sources

i

8 18

*7 27

Seasonal temperature variation Seasonal rainfall variation Seasonal variation in day length Seasonality of demand

27

Non-climatic sources

40

Religious observances

4i

3° 38 39

3 Seasonality and the disadvantaged Impact on the ultra-poor Intra-family disparity

44 53

The sources of intra-family disparity

64

Economic minorities Qualitative aspects of nutrition 4 Seasonality and the environment Environmental variables Continentality Altitude Soil and soil moisture Aspect

56 69 73 80 82 82

83 86 91 Vll

Vlll

5

6

7

8

CONTENTS

Relief Atmospheric conditions Transition zones Environment, species and variety Crops Weeds and crop pests Livestock Nomadism and the macro-environment Environmental adaptation Animal husbandry in the meso-environment Coping with seasonality Storage and processing Production technology Varietal selection and development Complementarity between enterprises Investment Survival strategies Seasonal labour migration Circulation between seasonal and non-seasonal occupations Circulation between seasonal occupations Social consequences Special problems of developing countries: I: Market failure and market distortions Institutional factors Communication barriers Transportation costs and agricultural location Seasonality in availability and cost of transport Seasonal price fluctuations The credit market Distortions in the non-formal sector Distortions in the formal sector flows Credit and seasonal cash Barriers to international trade Grounds for optimism? Special problems of developing countries: II. Technological change in a changing environment Resource depletion Agricultural mechanization Selective mechanisation and 'labour bottlenecks'" Mechanisation as appropriate technology Sequential mechanisation

91 92 93 94 94 96 98 98 102 103 104 104 106 106 113 119 129 132 135 138 148 151 153 15 5 15 6 160 161 163 164 165 166 169 171 173 173 178 180 18 3 18 8

lx

CONTENTS

Irrigation and mechanisation

190

Biological technologies

196

High-yielding varieties New directions in agricultural research

J

9 Implications for policy and planning Bias in policy formulation Urban bias Resource base and gender bias The bias of education and status Bureaucratic bias Donor bias

97

202

214 220 220 221 222

223 224

The information-gathering exercise

226

Systems research Rapid rural appraisal

228

Agricultural research and extension

253 234 236

Participatory approaches Reward structures Seasonally and sustainability

230

237

Land reform Mechanization, migration and off-season employment Market failure and market distortion Integrating counter-seasonal planning

240 242

Internal consistency Consistency with traditional coping mechanisms Consistency within agricultural planning Integration with other sectors Appendix: Seasonal labour migration at the national level: An approach to rapid appraisal

250

Methodology Factors making for macro-environmental diversity The case study findings Type of employment The timing of seasonal migration The volume of migratory flows Direction of migratory flows Distances covered Wage rates and modes of payment

Conclusions Notes References and sources Index

245 250 251 251

255 256 257 257 267 268 270

274 278 284 285 289 295 301

316

Illustrations

i. i Mean-variance models of income in seasonal and nonseasonal industries in developed and developing countries page 9 1.2 Inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal variation in consumption 15 1.3 Seasonal variation in the marginal product of factors of production 18 2.1 T h e season-creating effect of the earth's tilt 29 2.2 Mean monthly rainfall at selected tropical and temperate locations 30 2.3 Annual march of the Sun's zenithal position and of the ITCZ 33 2.4 Seasonal rainfall distribution types in the humid tropics 36 2.5 Climates of sub-Saharan Africa based on rainfall seasonality 37 2.6 Length of day at the summer and winter solstices 40 (northern hemisphere) 3.1 Mean number of household food stocks by land 55 ownership and month of interview (Matlab, Bangladesh) 3.2 Seasonal distribution of w o r k a n d seasonal changes in mean b o d y weight a m o n g W o D a a B e w o m e n a n d m e n 58 3.3 Prevalence b y trimester of certain diseases in K e n e b a children, by age a n d season 61 3.4 Weight curve of two infants from birth to 24/17 months, illustrating the influence of infectious diseases 63 and of season 3.5 Average monthly consumption of wild vegetable foods by jaijai fy/odsi (1975) 71

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

xi

72 3.6 Average weights of %u/oasi and Herero, 1975/76 4.1 Effect of continentality on annual temperature regime 83 4.2 Effect of altitude on seasonal temperature variation (Nepal) 84 4.3 Maturity of a crop of barley at different elevations 86 4.4 Average monthly rainfall and average rainfall retained in the soil under three rainfall regimes 90 4.5 Season, rainfall and crude protein intake from pastures in southern Africa 99 5.1 Demand for casual labour in rice-based cropping systems of Noakhali, Bangladesh (1978—79) m 5.2 Labour demands on a holding in Sinshu, Japan, 1823 114 5.3 Labour allocation and complementarity between Babassu and agricultural labour 117 6.1 Sri Lanka showing wet, dry and intermediate zones 141 6.2 Changes in dry season migration patterns from Sokoto Province Nigeria 147 7.1 Uruguay: Agricultural land-use classification 158/159 7.2 Seasonal fluctuation in retail wheat prices in two countries 162 8.1 Cumulative frequency distribution of land preparation time for sample co-operators' land; Subang and Indramayu districts, West Java, 1979—80 187 8.2 (a) Pakistan: total labour used in tubewell and nontubewell farms 191 (b) Pakistan: seasonal distribution of hired labour on tubewell and non-tubewell farms 191 9.1 The Philippines: seasonal calendar for the Lake Buhi project 232 A1 Regions of Bangladesh and number of respondents from each 258 A2 Bangladesh: rainfall, generalized cropping calendar and areas under major crops 261 A3 Annual rainfall distribution by regions 264 A4 Type of work performed by migrants 267 A 5 Crops on which migrants work 269 A6 Distribution of migrants' work among rice crops 271 A7 Estimated monthly distribution of in- and out-migration 275 A8 Regions of origin and destination of migrants 277

Tables

2.1 Walsh's provisional classification scheme of tropical climates on the basis of rainfall seasonality page 36 5.1 Ancient records of maturity character in plants 109 5.2 Irrigated areas, 1964-84 122 7.1 Coefficient of seasonality and trend in seasonality for grains and fodders in irrigated and non-irrigated areas of Pakistan 170 8.1 Estimated area planted to high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice in the major regions of the developing countries, 1982—83 198 8.2 Research centres supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research 200 A1 Areas under major crop categories by region 259 A2 Bangladesh: irrigated area by region (1984/5) 265 A3 Mean levels of seasonal in-migration by region and by month 273 A4 Regions of provenance and destination of seasonal migrants 279 A5 Distances between areas of inter-migration 283 A6 Migrants' travel arrangements 285 A7 Modes of payment of seasonal migrants 286 A8 Wage payments to migrants 288

Xll

Preface

I first became aware of the importance of seasonal variation in the agriculture of developing countries when working in Ethiopia more than fifteen years ago. During the course of field work in the central highlands, fellow workers and I found the symptoms normally associated with famine: fires unlit when the main meal of the day should have been cooking; empty food stores; naked, pot-bellied children shivering in the chill of the monsoon. In Western countries the name of Ethiopia has since become almost synonymous with famine, yet what we then saw was not famine. Local people assured us that such things happened at that time every year. After the harvest things would greatly improve. However, it was not until I made it the subject of a special study in another part of the central highlands (Gill 1977) that I became aware of the great complexity and far reaching importance of seasonality. Many years later I was to come across similar conditions of seasonal hardship in the very different setting of Bangladesh. There in the lean season it is not at all uncommon for farm labourers and their families to eat only once in two, even three, days. That circumstances like these are by no means exceptional is evinced by a growing volume of literature from all over the developing world on the relationship between seasonality and rural poverty there. Schofield's 1974 review of studies on seasonality of nutrition was pioneering, bringing as it did many sometimes obscure studies within a coherent framework and before a wide audience. However, it was publication of Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty (Chambers et al.

1981), which first exposed the wide-ranging and multi-faceted nature of the seasonal problem and encouraged the development of seasonal analysis. The great influence of this work is demonstrated by a xiii

XIV

PREFACE

subsequent increase in writings on the seasonality /poverty nexus, almost all of which reference it. At time of writing, however, the overwhelming bulk of the literature on seasonality and poverty is single-discipline and micro-level, written as it is by researchers and practitioners with intensive and year-round field experience in developing countries. This provenance is a source of both strength and weakness. Its strength derives from its obvious basis in first-hand experience with the relevant issues and problems and the generally high quality of the resultant information and analysis. Its weakness is that it is difficult to extend the conclusions of a particular study to a geographical area that is large enough, or a conceptual area that is comprehensive enough, to be treated holistically for the purposes of planning and policy formulation. The seminal contribution Seasonal Dimensions made to the debate derived from the fact that, despite its being based on a conference, it was far from being a standard 'proceedings' volume. The editors played a vital role in placing the papers within a coherent analytical framework and drawing conclusions of wide applicability based on the evidence presented by individual contributors - not the least of which was to demonstrate the interactive nature of the various aspects of seasonal poverty, and, by inference, the degree of synergism that could be achieved from multidisciplinary research within the framework of seasonal analysis. I feel that the time is now ripe for a book on seasonality for a number of reasons. First, a conference-based volume — and a number have been produced since 1981 -however well edited, cannot extend its scope much beyond that of the papers presented. This inevitably leads to uneven coverage of the field. Seasonality of nutrition, for example, has received a good deal of attention, while the enormously important subject of seasonal labour migration is, in my view, seriously underresearched; we know much more about seasonal poverty from an anthropological perspective than we do from an economic viewpoint; the seasonality problems of minority groups have received significantly less research attention than those of other disadvantaged sections of the community. Second, a more complete appreciation of the importance of seasonality problems and the prospects for countering them requires that the debate be placed more firmly within the wider context of the debate on development. For example, what lessons, if any, can be learnt from the experience of the now developed countries in devising appropriate counter-seasonal measures for the Third World? What is the relationship between seasonality and such dynamic aspects of the 'poverty problem' as those arising from technology transfer, population pressure and resource depletion? Finally, the bulk of the

PREFACE

XV

empirical work on the seasonality/poverty relationship - including that published since 1981 — has concentrated on uncovering the nature and extent of the problem more than on attempting to devise appropriate solutions. This is, of course, the logical way to go about things, but the nature and extent of the problems uncovered by the research are so serious and far-reaching that the development of effective counter-seasonal strategies must now be regarded as an integral part of any more general programme for countering rural poverty. The quotation following the title page is from Leonard Woolfe's book The Village in the Jungle, based in Sri Lanka and originally published by Edward Arnold Ltd. in 1913. I chose it because it seems to me to encapsulate many of the actual effects of seasonal deprivation on poor people in poor countries. During the course of writing, however, a more familiar quotation from Alexander Pope has kept recurring in my thoughts: 'Fools rush in where angels fear to tread'. In an age of sometimes extreme - and apparently ever-increasing specialization, perhaps only a fool would attempt to write a multidisciplinary work. Yet, as Chambers and Longhurst have pointed out, ' It is difficult to find an aspect of rural life in the tropical third world which is not touched by seasonally' (Chambers et al. 1981, p. xvi). Certainly the ' systems' framework I suggest for tackling the challenge of seasonality demands a multidisciplinary approach. Inevitably when one tries to cross disciplinary frontiers, depth of treatment, even in one's own subject (mine is economics), is sacrificed to breadth of coverage. The intended audience is wide: students, teachers, researchers and practitioners in all fields connected with Third World rural development, but above all policy makers in food and agriculture, agricultural extension agents and scientists of all disciplines in agricultural and related research in developing countries. All of these people will find inadequacies in the treatment of their own disciplines. These will have arisen partly from the need for broad coverage and partly from my own lack of knowledge. But outside of their own fields I hope they will also find the discussion sufficiently stimulating to enable them to identify novel aspects of the subject, to recognize (if they have not already done so) the importance and inter-connectedness of seasonality problems, to see these problems in a broad perspective and to perceive the advantages of collaboration with specialists in other fields in seeking appropriate solutions. I may be a fool, but I am not such a fool as to imagine that this small volume will provide answers to the seasonality challenge. If successful it will suggest lines of enquiry to be pursued by others better qualified than me.

Acknowledgements

The foolhardiness of attempting to write a multi-disciplinary book is mitigated by the advice and comments of friends and colleagues in the various specializations concerned. I am most especially grateful to Professor Lawrence Smith, Chairman of the Centre for Development Studies at Glasgow University, for his painstaking reading and most helpful comments on drafts of particular chapters. Other colleagues at the University who provided invaluable comments and advice were Dr Mark Lawrence of the Institute of Physiology, and John Briggs of the Department of Geography. I would also like to record my thanks to three colleagues at Winrock International for comments on various sections of the text: Dr Navin Rai (Anthropologist), Dr Michael Wallace (Public Policy Analyst) and Dr James Yazman (Animal Production Specialist). I owe sincere thanks to other friends and colleagues who made extremely useful comments on the Appendix: Dr Bruce Currey (Winrock International), Dr Edward Clay (Institute of Development Studies) and Steve Jones (freelance Socio-Economist), but most especially to Hugh Brammer (formerly FAO Agricultural Development Advisor, Bangladesh) whose lengthy, detailed and erudite comments were invaluable. The contribution to the Appendix of Dr M. A. Jabbar of Bangladesh Agricultural University was similarly crucial, and I must also record my thanks to John Lee and Duncan Robinson, former post-graduate students of the Department of Geography, Glasgow University, who produced the digitized maps in the Appendix under the kind direction of John Shearer of the same Department. The only Appendix map not produced by them was Figure A3, which was hand-drawn by my son Stephen. Thanks, Steve. All other figures in the book were professionally re-drawn by Sri xvi

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS xvii Ishwor Manandhar of Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu. Many thanks also to my other son, Eric, for the laborious and accurate work he performed in hand-calculating the distances travelled between 470 pairs of upa^ilas. This formed the basis of Table A5. I am also grateful to two anonymous reviewers at Cambridge University Press for very helpful comments on some of the earlier chapters. Finally I must express my especial gratitude for the intellectual and professional support of my dear wife, Iris. The support provided by two institutions was no less valuable than the above professional assistance, and I wish to acknowledge most gratefully my debt to my employers, Winrock International Institute for Agricultural Development, for the generous study leave they provided, and to the Centre for Development Studies, University of Glasgow, where I spent this period of study. I must also add a special word of thanks to Dr Ted Smith, formerly President of the Agricultural Development Council, for initiating the Study Leave process. Finally I must acknowledge my profound debt to my family for putting up with those long periods of absence and those other, hopefully short, periods of grumpy presence that were even worse! Needless to say none of the individuals or institutions mentioned above bears any responsibility for the views I have expressed, or for any errors of fact or interpretation that may appear in the text. These are my sole responsibility.

Introduction

SEASONAL VARIATION in agricultural production results in two sets of often interacting problems: unevenness in resource requirements and the flow of output. These problems are found in every type of agriculture - indeed in all seasonal industries - but their exact nature and extent, as well as the severity of their consequences, depends largely upon the farm setting. For the western farmer the first type of problem may imply an expensive piece of equipment like a combine harvester deteriorating as it lies idle for most of the year, while at other times it must work flat out, thus increasing the possibility of breakdown. At the other end of the spectrum a poor farmer or landless labourer in a developing country will be unemployed for much of the year while at other times he or she must work to the point of exhaustion. For the commercial farmer in the West, problems created by seasonality in the flow of farm produce translate into uneven cash flows or the additional costs of storage or processing. For the Third World subsistence farm family, the major problem is seasonal variation in food consumption. For the better-off family this may be qualitative only, provided a sufficiency of non-perishable foodstuffs can be stored to see them through from one harvest to the next. With poorer families, however, there is quantitative variation also, and a pre-harvest' hungry season' when there is simply not enough food to go round. The problem is not new, of course. Not only farmers, but pastoralists, fishermen and hunter-gatherers have always had to know how to cope with the seasonality problem. In unusually harsh environments like the Australian bush or the Kalahari Desert, entire cultures have long since evolved around the problem of how to adapt to seasonal-cum-geographical variation in the availability of foodstuffs

2

INTRODUCTION

from the wild (Thomson 1939, Wilmsen 1978). Nomadic pastoralism is organized along similar lines. The earliest known written evidence of such efforts in agriculture proper takes the form of a farmer's almanac inscribed on a clay tablet, which was found on the site of Nippur in Iraq, dating from around 1700 BC (Aitken 1974)- Later writings on farming reveal a deep concern with the problems of matching resources to the seasonal requirements of crop and livestock enterprises: examples can be found in the work of the Roman agronomists Palladius and Varro (White 1970, Frayn 1979). Bray (1986) cites Chinese agricultural treatises of the twelfth and fourteenth centuries which show how such concerns could be the driving force behind profound technological change: The expansion of agricultural output in medieval South China was brought about by the introduction of quick-ripening and drought-resistant rice varieties, permitting the development of multiple cropping and an increase in the rice-growing area; by the development of local irrigation and water control facilities; by an increase in the application of fertilisers, mainly industrial by-products such as beancake; and by the spread of improved rice cultivation techniques (ibid, p. 150). Several counter-seasonal strategies are implicit in this description. The most important are the introduction of new varieties which were of different and less-restrictive seasonality from traditional ones, and the spread of irrigation, which permitted dry-season cropping. Even fertilizers and improved husbandry can reduce seasonality by helping a crop to achieve and sustain rapid growth, thus increasing the probability that it can be fitted into a seasonal production niche. Efforts such as these have continued, through the Agricultural Revolution (when increased fodder production to carry livestock through the winter was a major goal) down to the present day. Farmers in developing countries especially have shown great ingenuity in adapting their agronomic practices so as to fit modern varieties into convenient points in their farming cycles and hence improve slack season resource utilization and/or increase lean season production (Biggs and Clay 1981, Byron 1985, Richards 1985, Biggs 1986). It is only recently however, that the problems of seasonality have begun to be viewed as an aspect of the poverty problem (Chambers et al. 1981, Jiggins 1982, Longhurst 1986, Sahn 1989). Longhurst sums up the seasonal dimension of rural poverty as follows: There is a simultaneous prevalence of sickness, malnutrition, indebtedness, hard work, discomfort and poor food availability at certain times of the year,

INTRODUCTION 3 usually during the rains. This period before harvest —'the hungry season' — is one of considerable stress for rural people, exacerbating their poverty. Poor people are less able to cope with this regular period of stress than rich people, who can usually exploit it to their benefit (1986, p. 1). Such a perspective evokes an entirely fresh view of the problem of agricultural seasonality. First, it is clearly a multifaceted problem, one whose proper appreciation therefore requires an interdisciplinary approach.1 Second, the fact that there are dynamic aspects of the problem is implicit in the observation that rich people can use the hungry season to maintain and even strengthen their control over those weaker than themselves. This last point is enlarged upon by Chambers, who notes that the poor, knowing that there are recurrent seasonal crises to be faced, are ' screwed down' into subordinate and dependent relationships with their patrons, with whom they must remain on good terms: The poor are subordinated to the less poor and the weak to the strong. Stress is passed down to the weakest - women, children, old people and the indigent. Sometimes the screw becomes a ratchet, an irreversible downward movement into deeper poverty as assets are mortgaged or sold without hope of recovery (Chambers et al. 1981, p. 3). The most radical departure from tradition implicit in the perception of seasonality as an aspect of the more general problem of rural poverty is that it does not regard seasonality solely, or even principally, as a problem for farmers. The very poor may be small or marginal farmers, but some of those most seriously affected are not farmers at all. They may be heavily involved in agriculture, as in the case of indigent agricultural labourers, both male and female, who lack the resources to farm for themselves. They may be members of farm households - as in the case of infants or perhaps old people - who lack sufficient status within the family to be able to avoid discrimination in the distribution of food or other essentials when these are in short supply. Or they may be both, as in the case of the women and older children of farm households, who work on the farm, but have insufficient status to avoid discrimination in the allocation of family income, family workloads, or both. Even within the context of a poor country, such people are disadvantaged. Not only do they lack resources, but they also lack the power to determine the course of their lives; they are to a significant extent at the mercy, not only of climatic and other sources of seasonality, but also of decisions made by others in such fields as

4 INTRODUCTION investment, resource allocation and production patterns. Even decisions which may be counter-seasonal from the viewpoint of a male farmer or 'patron', may not improve, or may even worsen, the seasonality problems faced by more disadvantaged individuals socially or economically inferior to him, such as his wife, clients or employees. Efforts to counter poverty are undermined from the outset by a simple lack of perception as to the true nature and scale of the problem on the part of professionals and policy makers whose task it is to help alleviate it. Chambers makes the point that not only is rural poverty itself' underperceived', but its seasonal dimensions are even more so. He describes a series of' biases' which must ring true to anyone familiar with the mechanics of field trips by ' development tourists' and other official visitors in developing countries. 'Urban', 'tarmac' and ' roadside' biases limit such travel to accessible areas which, because they are more accessible, are less impoverished than the hinterland. ' Project bias' directs field trips towards areas where there have been successful initiatives. 'Person bias' means that the individuals met are most likely to be male, prosperous and healthy. 'Professional bias' tends strongly to focus people's attention on issues of narrow professional concern and hence ' makes it difficult (for them) to see the holism of poverty'. The biases of'politeness and timidity' have the effect that 'courtesy and cowardice combine to discourage contact with the poorest people' (Chambers 1980). The wet season is the hungry season in most areas, but it is also the season when the scale of the poverty problem is most likely to be unperceived, because most field trips by professionals and policy makers are confined to the dry season, when travel is relatively easy ('dry-season bias'). Just as the wet season is the hungry season, the dry season is one of relative plenty: the harvest is just in and poverty is at its annual low. Such travel as is undertaken during the rains is constrained by problems of inaccessibility and therefore the information gathered is especially subject to 'tarmac' and related biases. Such information is also constrained by 'activity' bias: a great deal of agricultural activity can be seen at this time, and this attracts the attention of visitors who do not see conditions in the homestead, where the weakest are to be found and where food is especially short. Such impressionistic disinformation adds to the more formal 'statistical bias', of which Chambers identifies two sources. One arises from the loss of the seasonal dimension through aggregation of data. The other arises from the fact that much seasonal data derives from secondary sources like clinic records, which reflect ease of access to clinics and ability to pay for treatment, both of which are minimal in the rainy

INTRODUCTION 5 season. Finally, Chambers observes a tendency, at least in some areas, for social science research in agriculture to concentrate on irrigated areas where seasonality in production is, of course, minimized ('irrigation bias') (Chambers 1979, 1980, 1981). In his discussion of'professional bias', Chambers notes that among those whose work takes them into the rural areas, there are some whose values, interests and professional training 'focus attention directly on the poor'. He singles out those trained in nutrition and health in this regard (1980, p. 24). It is therefore not surprising that some of the most valuable insights into the seasonality-poverty nexus have come from rurally-oriented workers in these two fields (Chapter 3). At the other extreme Chambers mentions 'agricultural extension staff trained to advise on cash crops or to draw up farm plans' who are therefore 'drawn to the more progressive farmers' (ibid). This is a particularly damaging bias because of the contribution that extension agents, with their regular contact with farmers, could otherwise make towards improving their superiors' perceptions of the problems of poor and marginal farmers in general, and perception of the seasonal dimension of this problem in particular. Another group not singled out by Chambers, but at least equally important in terms of both understanding and addressing these issues, are agricultural scientists. Traditionally, scientific research in agriculture has concentrated on crops that are of interest only to relatively well-off or ' progressive' farmers. Most of the new varieties they have produced have been high input, high yield types - often with an inordinate degree of irrigation bias. Only recently have such attitudes begun to change (Chapter 8). Among social scientists, anthropologists, who are drawn by their training to conduct intensive longitudinal studies of small communities, have made some valuable contributions to our understanding of seasonality among poor people (Thomson 1939, Cain et al. 1977, Wilmsen 1978, Briscoe 1979, Huss-Ashmore 1982, Swift 1981 and White 1986 among many others). At the other extreme, and again with a few notable exceptions, economists have contributed little. Yet their discipline is closely concerned with such issues as scarcity, resource allocation, factor productivity, time preference, risk and uncertainty — all of which are extremely relevant to the poverty-seasonality relationship. Even at the micro level in agricultural economics, where contact with the rural poor could logically be expected to be greatest, economists have traditionally tended to be employed on projects, and are hence strongly subject to 'project bias'. (And rural development projects are themselves unusually subject to 'tarmac bias' 'irrigation

6

INTRODUCTION

bias' and similar sources of distortion.) However, the situation here has recently begun to improve with the adoption of a ' systems' approach to on-farm research (see below). Economists working at the macro level have been among those most guilty of failing to take seasonality in agriculture into account. As recently as the 1950s and 1960s, such writers as Lewis (1954), Rosenstein-Rodan (1957), and Fei and Ranis (1964) constructed elaborate models purporting to show, among other things, how an agricultural sector burdened with so many unemployed workers that the marginalproductivity of labour was zero, could release this surplus for employment in other sectors without loss of agricultural productivity. (The marginal product of a factor of production is the increase in total output that results from employing just one additional unit of this factor.) Although it was later pointed out (e.g. Higgins, 1968, Ch. 14) that there are seasons of full agricultural employment in even the most densely populated countries, the full economy-wide dimensions of the seasonality problem are still very far from being appreciated. This is extremely unfortunate, for economists working on macro-economic issues, by virtue of their positions in line ministries, planning commissions and banking institutions, are better placed than any other social scientist to influence policy making. Even today, economic planning and policy documents of all types, although they typically devote whole chapters to the problems of low income and the need for income- and employment generation, virtually ignore seasonal variation in these variables. If their travels in the rural hinterland do not bring home to top-level advisors and policy makers an awareness of the true horrors of the hungry season, part of the explanation is to be found in an educational process that never taught them to expect such problems in the first place. Development theory and practice are still, at root, based on the relatively recent experience of the now-developed economies. This results partly from the obvious fact that these countries have already trodden the path of economic success which others wish to follow. But it is also a consequence of the domination of developed country perspectives in the development debate. This has come about because the debaters are either themselves developed country nationals or Third World nationals educated in the developed countries or in Third World institutions in which developed country perspectives still predominate. Problems connected with seasonality certainly still exist in developed countries, but for a number of interrelated reasons they do not

INTRODUCTION 7 constitute a major set of issues. First, to quote Chambers yet again, in the developed countries ' food shortages are rare, and harvest, the main agricultural labour peak, comes at a healthy time of year' (1979, p. 13). Second, some of the most effective counter-seasonal measures have become available options in better-off countries almost as a by-product of the wider process of economic development. Prominent among these are the development of banking and insurance institutions, efficient processing, storage and transportation networks and other essential features of modern market economies, which have between them provided enormous scope for reducing seasonality in the food and agricultural sectors. This potential has been realized by the industries concerned virtually without outside intervention and without attracting a great deal of attention from those not immediately involved. Third, counter-seasonal technologies have, in developed countries, evolved in and for the local environment, and hence have byand-large been appropriate to local needs and resources. Thus major dislocations, such as those that now tend to be associated with ' turnkey technology' in developing countries, were largely avoided. A closely related factor is that the development of counter-seasonal technologies in developed countries has occurred contemporaneously with (and in part because of) a shift of resources out of seasonal industries into nonseasonal ones. This has helped minimize the impact of problems like labour displacement which are normally associated with rapid technological change.2 As a result of such developments, by the time the ' development debate' had begun in earnest, the economies of the developed countries were dominated by non-seasonal manufacturing and service sector industries, and the most serious seasonality problems of other industries had already been tackled. In taking care of those that remained, the resources of a wealthy and basically non-seasonal economy could effectively be mobilized (in such forms as short term credit and unemployment benefit) without undue strain, without requiring specific policy measures, and therefore without attracting a great deal of attention. The debate on technology transfer has clearly demonstrated that attempts to base Third World development strategies on approaches that have been successful elsewhere can be extremely misleading and damaging. The same is true of seasonality: it is still a crucially important problem in the rural Third World, one which, if ignored, will impede - perhaps even nullify - otherwise sound development strategies. Even the causes of seasonality in developed and developing countries differ sharply (Chapter 2). But the difference in effects is

8

INTRODUCTION

greater still, because of the very different social, economic and physical environment in which seasonality operates in the developing world. The present book seeks to achieve two consecutive aims. The first is to demonstrate the nature and importance of the seasonality - rural poverty nexus, paying special attention to the hitherto neglected economic aspects of the subject (but without becoming so technical as to lose non-economist readers). The second is to explore ways in which measures to confront this issue might usefully be incorporated into the processes of planning and policy formulation. The analytical framework within which these two aims will be pursued is set out in the next two sections of this chapter. The first concerns consumption issues, as it is here that any adverse effects of seasonality make themselves most keenly felt. The second is devoted to production and distribution aspects, as it is at this end of the production-consumption process that planning and policy efforts will mainly have to concentrate in order to counter the ill-effects of seasonal deprivation. • A model of the consumption effects of seasonality The relationship between poverty and seasonality is essentially that between the mean and variance of the same variable (or set of interconnected variables). Mean—variance models, which have been quite widely used in the analysis of risk-aversion by farmers in developing countries, therefore provide a useful starting point for the present discussion. Figure I.I depicts seasonal income variation within a small-scale 'system'. The system in question could be a family, or even an individual. Four situations are depicted, according to whether the system in question is located in a developed or developing country, and engaged in a seasonal or non-seasonal industry. Assume for the moment that there is no saving or borrowing, and that consumption must therefore be financed from current income. There is a critical level of consumption (and therefore a critical level of income) below which the entire system becomes unstable. This is represented by the line c in the diagram. In the case of an individual, c might represent the level of food intake below which the symptoms of nutritional deficiency disease begin to manifest themselves, thus impairing work capability and jeopardising future income. For a household it may represent the point at which family cohesion collapses and the more able-bodied strike out for themselves. This concept of a critical minimum will be considered more carefully later, but for the present it is important to note that this level is more likely to be reached:

C O N S U M P T I O N E F F E C T S OF S E A S O N A L I T Y

1 year 1 year Figure I . I . Mean-variance models of income in seasonal and non-seasonal industries in developed and developing countries, (a) High mean - high variance (developed country, seasonal industry), (b) High mean - low variance (developed country, nonseasonal industry), (c) Low mean - high variance (developing country, seasonal industry), (d) Low mean - low variance (developing country, non-seasonal industry).

(a) the lower the mean in relation to a given (absolute) degree of seasonal variation (compare Figure i.i(a) and i.i(c)),3 and (b) the greater the absolute degree of seasonal variance in relation to a given mean (compare Figure i.io,(f) and i.i(d)). Clearly the developing country-seasonal industry system most closely approaches c and is therefore the least stable of the four systems depicted. The assumption that there are no savings or borrowing can now be relaxed. Consumption is now assumed to be capable of being financed from current income, past income (savings) or future income (borrowing). Thus, for example, in the case depicted in Figure I.I (c), savings could be built up in the first six months of the year, when income is above its annual average level, to be drawn upon during the

IO

INTRODUCTION

remainder of the year. Both processes, however, entail extra cost. This is manifest in the case of borrowing if interest is charged. In the case of savings the cost element is inherent in the process of physical storage, particularly in developing country circumstances, as will be shown later. The concept of time preference - a person's preference between current and future consumption — is central to a proper understanding of this last point. Normally it is assumed that current consumption is preferred to future consumption — which is why banks pay interest to persuade people to save. The concept can be made more precise by defining a ' rate of time preference':

where: / = the rate of time preference over a given time period, p = a given amount of income, and / = the amount of future income that must be received in order to persuade the individual to save p for the period in question. Thus if it required an assured future income of 110 rupees to persuade an individual to save ioo rupees now, his or her rate of time preference would be o.i, or ten per cent. The same principle applies to savings in kind. The rate of time preference is not a constant, but is assumed to vary according to a number of factors. First, it is assumed that / will increase with the proportion of current income that is saved. Hence for a given individual, an interest rate of ten per cent may be sufficient to persuade him or her to save fifteen per cent of current income. However, a higher rate of interest would be required to persuade the same person to save, say thirty per cent from the same income level. Second, the ratio of present to anticipated future income will greatly affect the value of/, and hence /. If a rise in income is anticipated, the perceived value of present consumption vis-a-vis future consumption will increase, and the rate of time preference will increase accordingly. Similarly if income is expected to fall, / will also fall. It may even become negative if the anticipated fall in income is sufficiently large, thus implying a negative rate of time preference. This last point is of crucial importance for those in a seasonal industry, since regular rises and drops in income are clearly anticipated. Hence, during the slack season income is anticipated to rise in the future, so that/is greater than/) and the value of/is positive. The more seasonal a person's income is, the higher will be the slack season value

CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF SEASONALITY

II

of/. Similarly, during the season when incomes are at their annual peak, / will be low, zero or negative, depending upon the level of the anticipated drop. Given the huge seasonal variation that can characterize agricultural incomes in developing countries, / is likely to be negative. Of course where there is a modern banking system people in seasonal industries will not actually have to accept a negative rate of interest on what they save out of peak season earnings. However, it is extremely unlikely that poor people in developing countries will be able to place their savings in interest-bearing bank accounts. They are unlikely to be able to do anything other than hoard them, possibly in the form of money, but more probably in the form of food. People who save in this way can expect, at best, to recover all that is stored, so that at best f = p. In fact for a number of practical reasons hoarding will usually imply that f < p- Even a foodstuff which is nominally nonperishable may deteriorate during storage through rotting or sprouting. If converted into money its value is almost certain to be eroded through seasonal inflation, for in developing countries food sold after the harvest when it is plentiful fetches a low price, while food purchased as needed before the next harvest is often scarce and therefore expensive (Chapter 7). Finally, stored food, money or other valuables can be stolen - and the relatively large level of savings needed to sustain those in seasonal industries makes them a particularly attractive proposition for human and other predators. Two very important points emerge from the above analysis. First, if we compare people in seasonal and non-seasonal industries receiving the same level of income in a year, the fact that the former group has a negative rate of time preference and a loss on savings implies that the amount of their income they can actually devote to consumption will be the lower of the two. Moreover, the more seasonal the income the greater is this difference liable to be. Hence seasonality in itself implies an increase in the degree of poverty, other things being equal. The second point is that the tendency for the rate of time preference to diminish as the difference in peak and slack season earnings grows, is countered by the earlier-noted tendency for / to increase as the proportion saved out of a given level of income increases. One can also reasonably assume that the poorer a person is the greater will be the natural preference for present, as opposed to future, income, so that every additional unit of food saved will represent an ever-increasing sacrifice: / will increase rapidly as income is saved, until the ' equilibrium' point is reached at which the expected loss on savings is equal to the rate of time preference. Beyond this point no further

12

INTRODUCTION

savings will be made. (Indeed for very poor people with highly seasonal incomes it must demand a level of restraint bordering on the heroic for them to save at all.) The upshot of all of this is that the peak season level of savings will never rise to a level high enough to smooth out consumption completely; it will inevitably fall in the season of low or zero income. The argument regarding savings rests, of course, on the assumption that there is something to save. However, it is not at all unlikely that any peak season surplus had already been committed to paying off previous debts - perhaps even inherited ones. A person or family in this situation is dependent upon continuing access to ' revolving' credit each slack season. Where borrowing, rather than savings, is being considered, the interpretation of the time preference formula is slightly different, since / is now the amount of future income that must be surrendered in order to persuade the lender to part v/ithpforthe period in question. A worker in a seasonal industry will have a positive time preference in the slack season, and will therefore be willing to borrow provided the rate of interest is less than /. The greater the seasonality of income, the greater will be the ratio of peak period to slack period earnings, and hence the higher will be the slack season value of /. This, together with the desperate need for food in the hungry season, explains why poor people in developing countries are prepared to pay usurious interest rates for short term consumption loans. The fact that their incomes are likely to rise in the peak season explains why they can borrow at all. The poor, of course, seldom if ever have access to cheap credit from the formal banking sector, even if this sector were prepared to grant consumption loans — which it usually is not. They are therefore forced to borrow on the informal market, where the lender may extract a rate close to the value of /. Interest payments, like physical loss on savings, obviously represent a charge against income, so that once again for a given level of gross annual income, net income is lower for someone in a seasonal, than for someone in a non-seasonal, industry. Moreover, among those in seasonal industries those with assets such as land or livestock to secure a loan could normally expect to obtain a lower rate than those without such collateral. There may also be more competition among lenders for secured loans, and the potential borrower usually has other options, such as selling, mortgaging or renting out the assets in question if the rate of interest asked is too high. Once again the costs of seasonality rise proportionately with the degree of poverty. There is a third reason why the degree of seriousness of the

CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF SEASONALITY

13

seasonality problem grows with increasing poverty. In densely populated areas, the poorest group in rural society are landless agricultural labourers, people who generally obtain employment only on a casual basis. In such areas there is a natural tendency for farmers who employ such labour to do so only after household labour is fully employed, and to dispense with it as soon as the work load falls sufficiently for household labour to cope. Hence the income of labourers can be expected to be both lower and more seasonal than that of farmers. In semi-arid areas where population densities are lower, richer farmers are generally those with best access to water. This may mean their having the land with the most assured rainfall, or land with soils that can hold moisture well into the dry season (Chapter 4), or irrigated land, but in any case it will imply both increased mean output per acre and reduced seasonality of production compared with their less fortunate neighbours. This problem of seasonality interacting negatively with poverty aggravates the already serious difficulty that for a given degree of seasonal income variation, the lower the mean income is the closer will its annual 'trough' approach to the critical level. Seasonality in consumption, even of essentials, is not in itself a problem. Clothing, for example, may be purchased once a year and ' consumed' over the next twelve months. Of course the real problem arises with food and, to a lesser extent, water. In the dry season it may be necessary, particularly for women and girls, to trek long distances to fetch water, and this will tend to reduce the quantity consumed even for drinking purposes. In the rainy season there may be ample quantities of surface water, but it may also be contaminated with pollutants washed into it by the rain. In the case of food, the more nutritious foods tend to be both more perishable and more expensive than starchy staples, so that seasonality in consumption of the former is likely to be the greater of the two. Seasonality of consumption will obviously vary with social and economic status. At the top end of the spectrum are those whose consumption of all commodities can be kept at the desired level throughout the year, subject only to some seasonal variation in the type of supplies that are available. At a lower level will be those who can maintain levels of consumption at least of biological necessities. (Water supplies can be maintained quantitatively by hiring others to fetch it, and both quantitatively and qualitatively by installing a device such as a tubewell, which can tap an unpolluted aquifer.) At a lower level still will be those who can at least maintain the total volume of consumption, even if its quality falls off at particular times of year. At the bottom end

14 INTRODUCTION of the scale are those who have low and highly seasonal incomes. These are the people who suffer a hungry season, when even starchy staples are in short supply. As will be argued in Chapter 3, this last group approaches a critically low level of consumption for reasons connected with both quality and quantity. In the case of food, the shortage of starchy staple (energy foods) may well impair their ability to work, and hence earn. Insufficient water intake, particularly in a hot, dry season, will have similar effects. On the qualitative side, those at the bottom of the socioeconomic scale will face a season, even longer than the hungry season, during which they cannot afford more nutritious foods than starchy staples. This can leave them open to the debilitating effects of deficiency disease. In the case of water, drinking from polluted sources can lead to serious attacks of water-borne diseases. So far it has been assumed that the critical level of consumption is constant throughout the year. This is an over-simplifcation. First, for people in seasonal industries the critical level will itself vary seasonally, increasing with increased energy requirements in the busy season. This in fact often makes the situation worse than that illustrated earlier, for as the earlier quotation from Longhurst (see p. 2) implies, a period of unusually hard work (normally for land preparation) often coincides with the hungry season. Second, in reality deficiency problems arise, not when a critical minimum level is reached, but when consumption remains below this level for more than a certain length of time. For example, a previously well-nourished individual could reduce food consumption even to zero and still continue to work for a few days on stored reserves of energy in the body. At the other extreme other essential nutrients, such as fat-soluble vitamins, can be stored in the body for many months, so that they could be absent from the diet for a long period before deficiency symptoms appeared. Other nutrients occupy an intermediate position in this regard (Chapter 3). These refinements notwithstanding, the concept of a critical minimum level of consumption is not only valid, but is of central importance to an understanding of the poverty—seasonality nexus, as will now be shown. The analysis so far has concentrated on inter-seasonal variation. However, production potential, and hence employment opportunity and earnings, obviously vary from year to year within the same season — especially in a weather-dependent sector like agriculture. The full significance of a critical minimum level of consumption lies in the interaction between intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variation in income around a low mean, since the critical level is clearly most likely

CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF SEASONALITY

p.

I .

i

— i ! !j

o

c' 0 Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Figure .z. Inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal variation in consumption.

to be reached in the hungry season of a bad year. Figure 1.2 depicts consumption by a farm-dependent family or individual near the lower end of the income spectrum during three successive years. In the first year, had income generation followed its' normal' pattern, consumption would have recovered from its annual low and followed path P r , resulting in the 'normal' annual mean income of mv However, in this particular year - because of crop failure, illness or some other calamity - income does not pick up and consumption therefore declines until it reaches the critical level, c. (This is again represented as a straight line on the graph, since it is the concept rather than its refinements that are important to the argument.) By the time this level is reached, it may be assumed that all available savings and 'normal' revolving credit have been used up, and the family or individual has either to take emergency measures to maintain consumption or become unstable as a system, following path P n towards some lower critical level, c . In the case of a family this lower level could be migration of some or all of its members to the city slums; in the case of an individual it could be death. The emergency measures that can be taken to avoid this course of events are either disinvestment or the pledging of future income. Disinvestment may take the form of the sale, mortgaging or renting out of assets or default on normal ' revolving' credit, with a consequent forfeiting of the assets which secured them. If the goods in question were non-productive valuables like jewellery, an important safety net will have been lost. If instead they are productive assets like land or livestock, future income generating potential will have been lost.

l6

INTRODUCTION

Pledging of future income would occur as a result of new interest obligations if new loans were negotiated, perhaps by those who had previously been able to finance slack season consumption from peak season savings. Thus they enter the vicious circle of indebtedness. Worst of all is the position of those who previously relied on recurrent borrowing against future income to finance slack season consumption, for they will have to default on their loans and incur a further burden of (compound) interest without any corresponding receipt of income to relieve their present misery. Here it is quite likely that the fall to c cannot be avoided. One measure of desperation that is occasionally used is, in effect, to sell future peak season labour for present payment at slack season rates. This, however, merely postpones the evil, for reasons that will be painfully obvious. Most of the emergency measures just discussed have the effect of reducing future earning capacity, so that when a ' normal' year occurs once more, 'equilibrium' will be re-established, but around a new mean, mz, which is higher than that of the crisis year (m2), but lower than the previous 'equilibrium' level, mv Clearly, then, one could postulate a situation in which, over a more extended period of time in which several bad years occurred, the interaction of inter- and intraseasonal income variation could not only destroy a labourer family: it could also cause a farming family to drop successively from the status of small farmer to marginal farmer to landless labourer to city slum dwellers. Intra-seasonal variation can, of course, occur in two directions. Is it then reasonable to postulate another critical level, c", a high consumption level which could be surpassed in an unusually good year, permitting investments to be made and pledges redeemed, thus reversing the above process? Obviously if a 'bad year' is one caused by illness of one or more income earners, there is no corresponding concept of a 'good year' to set against it, but what of a good harvest? Unfortunately such an event is less likely to trip an upper critical level than a bad year is to trip a lower one. There are two reasons for this. The first lies in the nature of the market in question and the second in the dynamic nature of the rural environment in poor countries today. In a fairly localized area, especially where technology is at a similar level in all farms, the conditions making for a 'good' or 'bad' year (from a production viewpoint) often tend to be widespread. In a good year there will be a sharp increase in agricultural production across the entire locality and in a bad year there will be a sharp drop. In a largely subsistence agriculture, like that found in most of the developing

CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF SEASONALITY

17

world, the proportion of farm produce available for sale or barter will fluctuate even more sharply than total production, because subsistence needs are fairly constant. In a bad year virtually no produce may be marketed, while in a good year the limited local market is likely to be swamped with surplus produce. This deepens distress in a bad year, by driving food prices (in money or barter terms) sharply upwards, while the corresponding drop in prices in a good year prevents the accumulation of enough savings to lift the system towards level c". As if this were not bad enough, the prices of the type of goods that are sold in an emergency will move in exactly the opposite direction to food prices. In a bad year many people will try to dispose of articles like land, livestock, trees and jewellery, swamping the market and driving prices sharply downwards. Thus the level of distress sales becomes exceptionally high, as the market value of assets falls and that of food rises. Similarly in a good production year the ratio of food prices to those of land and other assets (assuming any of these assets are put up for sale at all) will swing very sharply in the opposite direction and accumulation of assets will become correspondingly difficult. The situation as regards debt repayment depends largely upon the terms of the loan. If this is expressed in money terms, the drop in produce prices that accompanies a good harvest will adversely affect repayment ability. Only if repayment is expressed in commodity terms will the borrower's repayment prospects be improved. Against this, however, loans in kind almost never come from the formal banking sector, and the interest rates charged by moneylenders and others in the informal sector are so high that paying off a loan plus accumulated interest, even in a good year, is exceptional. The second set of issues concerns the changing environment in which production and consumption assume their seasonal patterns, an environment which seems to exercise relentless downward pressure on mean consumption levels, making it increasingly unlikely that c" can ever be reached. Population growth is a major concern, for it brings with it subdivision of landholdings and migration to new and less favourable environments. Continuing resource depletion and degradation cause similar problems. Technological change can also reduce incomes and worsen seasonality, particularly when it takes the form of labour-displacing mechanization (Chapter 8). The foregoing analysis indicates the nature of the seasonality problem. It is not a major problem in its own right, since in the absence of poverty it can be, and in the developed countries has become, no more than an additional cost of production, one which can usually be

i8

INTRODUCTION Rainy season

r\

1 c

1 So

I

A. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug' Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 1.3. Seasonal variation in the marginal product of factors of production. : water; : labour; —• —: land.

passed on to the consumer. Even this causes few social problems, since food and other seasonal produce take up a relatively small proportion of most household budgets in developed countries. In the rural economies of poor countries, however, where incomes are generally very low, and the importance of food in the family budget correspondingly high, seasonality plays a catalytic role. In the short term it worsens poverty: the greater the degree of poverty, the greater its ill-effects. In the longer term it plays a pivotal role in locking disadvantaged individuals and families into a series of almost irreversibly downward steps at the end of which lies destitution or death. • The challenge of seasonality The recent literature on the effects of seasonality (reviewed in Chapter 3) has, like the above analysis, tended to concentrate on consumption issues. This largely reflects very real and valid equity concerns to which these issues give rise, and which are very clear from the perspective of field workers. In seeking a long term solution to the consumption problem, however, production and equity issues must be considered together. Seasonality of production implies not only an uneven flow of goods, but also unevenness in the utilization of resources. The poorer a country is the less it can afford this, yet paradoxically the poorer a country is the greater will this problem tend to be. Not only are the poorest economies generally characterized by a preponderance of seasonal industries like agriculture, but even their small manufacturing

THE CHALLENGE OF SEASONALITY

19

sectors tend to be more than usually seasonal. A high proportion are dependent on seasonal primary sectors for raw materials, while the remainder either supply seasonally required inputs and equipment to seasonal industries or provide consumer goods to consumers whose incomes are seasonal. To appreciate fully the seasonal capacity utilization problem in agriculture, it is necessary to return briefly to the 'zero marginal product' argument noted earlier (p. 6). There it was argued that, while at certain times of the year the employment of additional labour would contribute nothing to production (i.e. labour has zero marginal product (MP) at certain seasons), at other seasons labour has a high MP, and is therefore fully utilized. This is a general characteristic, not just of labour, but of all factors of production in seasonal industries. In agriculture's slack season land may lie fallow, dairy cattle are often dry, draught animals and equipment are kept idle and labour is unemployed. Such a situation cannot obtain for long, however, unless there is at least one other factor of production which is scarce at the time of year in question and which therefore has an unusually high marginal product. At other times of year the MP of this same factor may be zero - or even negative, as will be shown below. Seasonal variation in the marginal product of factors of production is shown theoretically in Figure 1.3. This shows the interaction of three factors: land, labour and water (rainfall) on a hypothetical non-irrigated farm in a region with a single wet season.4 Before the start of the rainy season the MP of water is very high, and because there is neither sufficient rainfall nor sufficient soil moisture to support a crop, the other two factors of production have zero MPs. With the onset of the rains, however, the marginal product of water falls rapidly, while that of labour increases equally fast as planting gets under way. The MP of land remains zero, because all available labour is fully committed. As the rains continue, the MP of water dips below zero because of such dangers as waterlogging and the washing out of seeds and seedlings if rainfall is excessive. Once the bulk of the available land is prepared and seeded, the MP of labour falls and that of land increases. The MP of land continues high for a short time after the rains because, were additional land available, at least a short duration catch crop could be grown on residual soil moisture. However, as the dry season advances this possibility fades and the MP of land falls as that of water increases (additional moisture in the growing stage would boost the crop very considerably). However, as the harvest approaches the MP of rainfall once again drops, this time falling far below zero - for rain at this stage

2O

INTRODUCTION

could severely damage the crop. With the onset of the harvest the MP of labour again increases sharply, although as soon as the harvest is in it again falls to zero while that of water once more increases very rapidly, reflecting the fact that land is once again fallow and labour once again idle, awaiting the onset of the rains. This simple model presents a very deterministic picture, but of course farming systems are, and always have been, the object of considerable modification by farmers. There are two basic ways of doing this. The first is through technological change. Radically new technologies are those like irrigation, which will supply a factor of production when its marginal product is high, thereby increasing the MPs of complementary factors - in the above case land and labour which would otherwise have been low or zero. Less radical technological change would extend the period during which the MP of a particular factor is positive, as when new crops and varieties are introduced which differ from traditional ones with respect to water requirements, maturity character, drought resistance, and so forth. The second form of modification, which requires considerable organizational skill, is to exploit local environmental differences in order to achieve greater diversity in the timing of operations. An example that may suit conditions on the farm depicted in Figure 1.3 might be to stagger the planting of plots according to their susceptibility to waterlogging. Since soils on susceptible plots usually retain moisture longer than those on well-drained ones, the former could be planted later than most, and, provided timing of the harvest was not too much of a constraint, yields could be maintained while both planting and harvesting were staggered. This would reduce the marginal product of labour at the two peak periods, making it less of a bottleneck and hence opening up opportunities for increasing the MP of land when this would otherwise have been zero. It would also increase the MP of labour at one or both ends of the two busy seasons, when it too would normally be low or zero. In order fully to appreciate the farmer's actions and the rationale behind them, it has become increasingly common to adopt a ' systems' approach to on-farm research. A 'system' can broadly be defined as any natural or artificial assemblage of objects or processes associated or organized in such a way as to form, within a specified boundary, a connected and interdependent whole. Linkages within the boundary are relatively strong, while those to elements outside, where they exist, are relatively weak. Farming systems research (FSR) has begun to reveal something of the extent to which farmers in developing

THE CHALLENGE OF SEASONALITY

21

countries have been successful in, among other things, ameliorating the effects of inter-seasonal variation in production potential (Chapter 8). In pursuit of these ends, such farmers not only pick and choose among technologies as they become available, but also take advantage of sometimes quite small inter-plot differences in such characteristics as soil type, fertility, flooding regime, aspect, slope and elevation in order to diversify their production enterprises and hence stagger seasonal requirements for labour, draught power and inputs (Chapter 5). Even where plots of land are physically similar - even within the same plot - farmers will deliberately create variation, by techniques like intercropping and the staggering of planting dates on either side of a biological optimum, sacrificing apparent yield advantages in order to serve a set of wider and more complex aims. This last point helps explain the alleged irrationality of farmers as seen through the eyes of those biological scientists and agricultural policy makers who have concentrated their efforts on increasing crop yields. Exclusive attention to a search for increased yields is in many circumstances naive. First, it implies an assumption that land is the only scarce factor of production (since yield is simply output per unit of land). As indicated above, however, this simplistic view ignores the fact that at different times of year different factors will be in short supply (in the sense of having the highest MP) and the rational farmer will allocate resources accordingly. The second point parallels the marginal product argument. Just as there is seasonal variation in marginal products of factors of production, there is also seasonal variation in the marginal utility of consumption (the contribution of one additional unit of consumption to overall utility, or well being). Where seasonality of consumption is a problem, and most especially where there is a hungry season, the timing of food production can be even more important to a family than its total volume, so that the marginal utility of food is highest during the hungry season and lowest during the main harvest period which generally follows it. Hence poor rural families can increase their overall welfare, even at the cost of sacrificing overall output, if they can shift some of their food production into the hungry season. One example will illustrate this principle in action. Farmers are well aware that for a given crop there is a generally positive relationship between biomass production and maturity period. Thus early maturing varieties of a given crop normally yield less well than late maturing ones. Farmers in developing countries often take advantage of this relationship and in the process demonstrate the importance to them of

22

INTRODUCTION

the timing of food production. They plant low-yielding, but fastmaturing varieties of their staples at the beginning of the cultivation season in order to provide a crop in what would otherwise be the hungriest time of year, before the main harvest comes off the land. Slower-maturing, higher yielding varieties are planted next and provide the bulk of the harvest. It is this type of rationale behind traditional farming systems that must be understood if the seasonality problem is to be first understood and then tackled. However complex the farming system, and however important it is to understand it, it must nevertheless be kept in mind that it is only one element in a wider system within which the elements that cause, and are capable of ameliorating, seasonality in agriculture take effect. These elements are complex and interdependent, interacting both mutually and with the other elements in the natural and agricultural environment, and affecting a wide range of important poverty-related variables, including nutrition, health, education, employment, income, savings, investment and social relationships. The ' systems' approach is still the best vehicle for understanding such complexity, as an essential first step towards meeting the challenge of seasonality. Particularly in developing countries, the farming system is only a subsystem of the household system that contains it. The household may also embrace many nonfarming activities, such as religious, social and family obligations (including reproduction and the care of children). Some household members are linked directly into the farming system in terms of the labour, management and other inputs they provide, and in terms of their nutritional dependence upon the food it produces. Others are linked to it less directly, as in the case of babies whose nutrition depends on that of their mothers, and whose nurturing at times depends upon the amount of time she can spare from essential farming activities. These particular relationships are especially important at times of nutritional stress and at times of peak labour requirements (Chapter 3). The various households that comprise a village may be interlinked to varying degrees.5 Several individual farming systems may be linked by mutual exchange of services like labour and draught power, a process which, to the extent that peak requirements are, or can be made, complementary, reduces such requirements for each participating household while simultaneously increasing the utilization of spare offpeak capacity. Other, non-farm, households (those of landless labourers) may be linked to neighbouring farming/household systems through the provision of either farm- or domestic labour and the

THE CHALLENGE OF SEASONALITY

23

consequent receipt of income — again especially at peak periods. Other households within the village may have no direct linkage with the group just described, but may together with them form part of a single 'patron-client' system. Such systems traditionally played an important role in reducing seasonality, through a flow of goods and services from patron to clients (in such forms as loans and presents) during the slack season, a process which not only secured the clients' socio-political allegiance, but also secured the patron a supply of labour in the busy season when it was traditionally scarce. Moreover, these patrons have traditionally tended, either dejure or de facto, to act as conduits through which much of their clients' contact with the outside world was maintained. Such a hierarchical structure bolstered the natural isolation of village society, where communications with the outside world were poor, and information systems underdeveloped. As a result, links between the village and the outside world tended traditionally to be much weaker than intra-village linkages, and village society had well-defined boundaries, difficult to penetrate from either direction. There has always, of course, been some interaction between at least some village systems and the outside world, but these required a strong and sustained economic pressure to overcome the above obstacles. For example, trade routes in seasonal produce have linked village systems to the national and international economy from time immemorial, but except for fairly localized transactions, high transportation costs could be overcome only in the case of commodities like spices, medicinal plants and drugs which were both non-perishable and of high value in relation to their weight. 'Horizontal' interactions, interlinking different village systems, especially through seasonal labour migration, are also of considerable antiquity. In this case it can be assumed that, given the difficulties in the way of travel and information flows, the more wide ranging systems took many years to develop and even then developed only if there was sufficient complementarity of labour requirements between the areas of out- and in-migration to generate a level of income sufficient to cover relatively high transaction costs (Chapter 7). Even without much outside contact, traditional agricultural and social systems were generally well adapted, within important limits, to meeting the challenge of seasonality. Those whose cumulative efforts produced these adaptations had had the benefit of generations in which both per capita resources and existing technologies were quite stable. Hence, efficient mechanisms could be developed for smoothing out

24 INTRODUCTION seasonal fluctuations in income and resource use, as far as this was possible within the limitations imposed by such factors as climate, technological choice and the structure of society. To say this is not to suggest the existence of any kind of golden age, but simply to argue that within a relatively static socio-economic and technological environment the process of continuing observation, experimentation and adaptation will eventually produce optimal solutions to the resource allocation problem - even in the presence of quite marked intra-seasonal variability in production conditions. The initial, and in many cases the greatest, shock to traditional counter-seasonal mechanisms in most of today's developing countries came as a direct result of colonialism. The internal integrity of village systems was weakened by such measures as land expropriation and by the erosion of traditional patron—client relationships. This last process occurred as a wider vista of opportunities opened up for patrons, making it less necessary for them to have to rely on the support of purely local clients. Other changes, such as the creation of an improved transportation infrastructure and the institution of cash taxes (and hence the need for cash cropping, livestock sales, etc), tended in the more accessible areas to make the boundaries of the village systems rather more permeable, opening them up to the influences of the wider economy. The pressures generated by many of these changes have continued into the post-colonial era, intensified by often rapid population growth and the continued introduction of technologies developed for a very different set of socio-economic conditions. These have heightened the disruptive effects of the other changes. For example, both population pressure and the introduction of labourdisplacing technology further erode the traditional patron's need for clients, since the former increase peak season labour supply and the latter reduce the need for it. The situation that presently obtains in numerous areas is that many important traditional intra-village counter-seasonal mechanisms have been weakened, while the links between village systems and those of the wider economy have not yet developed sufficiently to provide for a set of alternatives. Moreover, the degree of permeability of a village system's boundaries itself varies by season, since transport becomes more difficult and villages correspondingly more isolated, during the rainy season, when seasonal deprivation is generally at its highest level (Chapter 7). Because the process of integrating village systems into the wider economy is as yet very far from complete, the agricultural sectors of

THE CHALLENGE OF SEASONALITY

2J

developing countries - considered as systems - are correspondingly weak: their component parts lack interconnectedness and interdependence. It therefore follows that other macro level systems which connect with the agricultural sector - those for marketing, finance, inputs, research and extension, and through these the wider international economy - have little contact with village-level systems. What contact they have tends to be limited to the dry season, and even then they tend to connect only with the upper echelons of village society. This is a crucially important weakness as far as the ability to combat seasonality is concerned, for the impermeability of village system boundaries ensures that village-level poverty problems in general, and their seasonal dimensions in particular, remain 'unperceived'. And without perception any attempt at solution is tantamount to shooting wildly in the dark. The seasonality—poverty problem must be tackled at two levels. At the farm or village level what is required is the increasing application of modern scientific methods to identify seasonality problems and make appropriate solutions available for adoption. This is seriously impeded by the type of anti-perception biases identified by Chambers. At the macro level, meeting the challenge of seasonality depends to a large measure on the development of a policy-level capacity to identify existing or potential complementarities with respect to seasonal production possibilities and resource utilization. With increasing distance, variation in the physical, climatic — even economic and social — conditions that govern production tends to increase, and the potential for identifying seasonal complementarities increases with them. Factors which confine system linkages within a very limited geographical area will correspondingly limit the potential for exploiting macro level complementarities. The next two chapters look in turn at the causes and effects of seasonality. Chapter 2 considers the climatic and other (mainly social) origins of this phenomenon, essentially as a background for what follows. Chapter 3 looks at the effects of seasonality on those to whom it matters most, the disadvantaged. It does this by examining the recent literature on the subject within the framework of the seasonal consumption model presented earlier. The remainder of the book is devoted to what was described earlier as the challenge of seasonality: the difficulties in the way of countering these problems and the ways appropriate solutions might be sought. Chapter 4 provides a point of departure for this by examining the multifarious ways in which differences in the environment can interact with the basic sources of seasonality to create an array of, perhaps overlapping, but potentially

26

INTRODUCTION

complementary, ' economic seasons' within a given geographical area. This is crucially important, for it is in the diversity so created that we must seek the micro and macro level complementarities which provide the basis for effective counter-seasonal strategies. The fifth chapter examines existing counter-seasonal strategies which have come to be used in both the developed and the developing world. It identifies two basic features of such strategies that have been particularly effective in the former: the growth of a system of specialization and exchange through the market mechanism, and the development and application of science and technology to such seasonal problems as uneven capacity utilization and the need to match seasonal supply to seasonal or nonseasonal demand. However, access to new technology depends upon access to land, and the more disadvantaged a family or individual the less likely is it that such access will exist. Chapter 6 looks at a survival mechanism that is, or could become, particularly important to the disadvantaged, seasonal labour migration. The next two chapters then examine the difficulties that must be faced in applying these lessons in the developing world. Chapter 7 considers the various distortions in developing economies which hamper the free flow of goods and services both geographically and seasonally. Chapter 8 considers the dynamic aspects of seasonality and how its effects are changing over time. The book ends with a discussion of the lessons that have been learnt from existing studies of seasonality and the conclusions that can be drawn for purposes of planning and policy formulation.

The sources of seasonality

in nature derives from the annual cycle of change in the earth's climate, which in turn derives from the geometry of our planet's orbit around the sun. However, seasons exist in a social sense also, as in the season of fasting at Ramadan or Lent. There is little that can be done to reduce seasonality of these types. The earth's climate is a system over which, perhaps mercifully, humankind has little deliberate control as yet. Even when seasonality has its roots in the social and religious traditions of a people, there is often little that can be done to change this - even if it were deemed desirable to do so — except perhaps in the very long term. An understanding of these sources is nevertheless an essential starting point for a study of both the effects of seasonality and ways of tackling the problems it creates. T H E EXISTENCE OF SEASONS

+ Climatic sources SEASONAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION

Temperature is a fundamental element of climate and in many ways its most important: many of the others are directly or indirectly dependent upon it. The earth's temperature is a function of solar radiation (insolation). The amount of solar radiation reaching the upper atmosphere is more or less constant, but its effect on atmospheric temperature is altered by a number of factors. First, the earth's surface is more or less at right angles to the sun's rays in the Equatorial zone, but as latitude increases, the curvature of the earth has the effect of presenting an increasingly angled surface to these rays, so that the same amount of radiation is spread over an increasingly wide area, reducing 2

7

28

THE SOURCES OF SEASONALITY

the intensity of insolation reaching the ground. This simple relationship is, however, modified by a number of other factors. One of the most important is the presence of cloud or dust particles in the atmosphere, both of which filter out and reflect back a proportion of the insolation received by the atmosphere. Thus the heavy cloud cover associated with the Equatorial zone reduces that zone's average temperature below that of the mainly desert and largely cloud-free zones on either side. The temperature produced by insolation is also affected by a number of other factors, such as the reflectance of the surface on which it falls, and on winds and ocean currents, which play a major role in redistributing warmth from the warmer to the colder regions. The amount of solar radiation reaching a given point on the earth's surface is itself determined by season. This happens because the earth's axis is not at right angles to its plane of rotation around the sun, but inclined to it (at an angle of 66| degrees). Figure 2.1 shows the northern hemisphere tilted towards the sun in June/July, and away from it in December/January. With increasing distance from the Equator this produces increasingly large inter-seasonal differences in solar radiation and hence surface temperature, each hemisphere being the mirror image of the other in this respect. The world's developing countries lie in the lower latitudes, i.e. the tropics and subtropics. These do not simply merge into the temperate zones on either side, for there are climatic distinctions which are of vital importance to agriculture and to the influence of seasonality on agriculture. The most straightforward definition of the tropics derives from the angle of the earth's tilt, and places them in the zone between the latitudes 23I degrees North (Tropic of Cancer) and 235 degrees South (Tropic of Capricorn). These two latitudes represent the limits between which the sun is ever in zenith (i.e. directly overhead).1 It is in zenith at the Tropic of Capricorn at the point of maximum inclination of the southern hemisphere towards the sun (around 22nd December) and at the Tropic of Cancer six months later. These two dates are the solstices (the points of maximum difference in the length of night and day). For climatological and agricultural purposes, however, the tropics cannot be defined with such precision, since latitude is only one of a number of factors determining which crops can be grown at a given location (Chapter 4). The simplest agricultural definition of the tropics is that region which has no winter. A corresponding definition of the temperate zone is the area in which frost occurs, even if rarely. More complex definitions take airflow, and hence indirectly rainfall, characteristics into account as well as temperature. Thus, for example,

CLIMATIC SOURCES Spring hemisphere.--^ Mar 21/22

-7—$9™-Autumn '^ hemisphere r_-N,

~'

N Winter hemisphere

Summer ' hemisphere

Summer hemisphere

V ^ Winter hemisphere sf•>*. 21/22

Autumn hemisphere p ^ hemisphere

21/22

Incident solar radiation Plane of

Figure 2.1. The season-creating effect of the earth's tilt.

Riehl adopts the same approach as many climatologists when he describes the tropics as: That part of the world where atmospheric processes differ decidedly... from those of higher latitudes (so that) a dividing line between easterly and westerly winds in the middle troposphere (700 mb) may serve as a useful guide for the boundaries. This fluctuating line allows for seasonal variations and for differences between one part of the world and another in the same season (1979, p. 1). The boundaries of the temperate zones (or ' middle latitudes') are equally blurred. Their poleward limits verge on the areas of 'cold' climate, which border the Arctic and Antarctic Circles and are of little agricultural importance. Nearer to the Equator are the ' cool temperate'

THE SOURCES OF SEASONALITY No dry season 400 300

Entebbe (Uganda)

Colombo (Sri Lanka)

Belem (Brazil)

200

«!••'

J M M J S N

J M M J S N

J S N J M M

100

I

mm

o

2600

J NMJ SN Christchuich mm JQQ (New Zealand)

2400

^o'TTftTTfTTrrn

2200

J S N J M M

300 200

2 wet-2 dry Accra (Ghana)

Zanzibar (Tanzania)

Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea)

60 0

J M M J S N

J S N J M M

2000

Washington D.C. (U.S.A.)

1800

mm 100

100

J S N J M M

Cherrapunji (India)

1600

J M M J S N 1400

mm 700 600 500 400 300 200 100

1 wet-1 dry

Bombay (India)

1200

Singapore 1000

Harare (Zimbabwe)

800 J M M J S N

JSNJMM

JMMJSN

600

JMMJSN 400

Dry Tamanrasset

if-

J M M J S N

Alice Springs (Australia) J S N J M M

Lima (Peru) 200

J S N J M M

60

JMM JS N Figure 2.2. Mean monthly rainfall at selected tropical and temperate locations. (Source: drawn from data in Lamb 1972 (World Climatic Table).)

climates and the 'warm temperate' (or subtropical) climates. In the ' cool temperate' climates there is a cold season of one to five months below 6 °C during which there is a seasonal check to plant growth. The 'warm temperate' or subtropical climates, like the tropics, have no such cold season, except at high altitude (Chapter 4). SEASONAL RAINFALL VARIATION

If seasonal variation in temperature is more pronounced in the temperate zones than in the tropics, the opposite is true of the seasonal distribution of rainfall. Figure 2.2 depicts mean monthly rainfall data for twelve tropical locations. (The reasons for selecting these particular ones will be explained later.) For purposes of comparison three

CLIMATIC SOURCES

31

temperate locations are also included, as are two relatively unusual tropical stations, Cherrapunji and Singapore. The different bar patterns clearly illustrate the generally much greater seasonal variability in tropical rainfall than is found in the temperate zone. Even where mean annual rainfall is low, as in the dry regions, rainfall variability is still high. Hence, whereas the seasonal distribution of temperature is the basis for most systems of climatic classification in the temperate zones, in the tropics they are usually classified according to the seasonal distribution of rainfall. There are, of course, exceptions to all rules, and Singapore is included in the diagram to exemplify this. This station is located virtually on the Equator, yet although its rainfall is high it is also relatively evenly distributed with respect to season. In the case of Cherrapunji, it is the mean level of rainfall that is exceptionally (indeed uniquely) high, while absolute seasonality is enormous, with a range of over 2600 mm between the driest and wettest months. Rainfall is a very complex phenomenon, of which only the sketchiest of outlines can be provided here. Heated water evaporates, so that air over water bodies absorbs moisture. There is a strong relationship between the moisture content of the air (humidity) and ambient temperature. Increasing temperature not only causes increasing water evaporation: it also increases the capacity of the air to absorb this moisture before reaching saturation point, the point at which the moisture precipitates in such forms as rain. This relationship is one important reason why tropical rainfall levels can be so very much heavier than those found in the temperate zones. Water evaporation would, however, be of little importance were it not for air movement. This has its origins in variations in air temperature over the surface of the earth. These give rise to variations in air pressure, which in turn result in air movement - from areas of high, to areas of low, pressure. Wind is air movement parallel to the earth's surface, but not all air movement is of this type. A form that is particularly important as a cause of rainfall is convection: air which has been heated by contact with the surface of the earth rises, while higher, cooler air falls. When convection occurs over water, water vapour ascends to the upper air where it condenses into clouds. Winds carry clouds to areas of different atmospheric conditions, where their condensed water may precipitate. Precipitation can be caused by several factors, of which two are particularly important over land. One is the existence of impurities such as dust particles in the atmosphere, around which water can coalesce into drops. The other results from wind being deflected upwards by mountain barriers in their path (orographic lifting). (This is responsible

32

THE SOURCES OF SEASONALITY

for Cherrapunji's exceptional rainfall regime.) A similar lifting effect is achieved when two wind systems converge, as in the intertropical convergence zone, described below. As clouds rise, cooling occurs, reducing their water-retaining capacity and causing precipitation. Clouds may also be carried upwards by convection currents, again causing precipitation (over either land or sea). Because they both result from the geometry of the earth's orbit around the sun, wind and rainfall variation, like temperature variation, are seasonal phenomena. Wind systems are complicated by major non-uniformities in the earth's surface, the most important of which are the differences between land and water, whose thermal characteristics are quite distinct. At a given latitude, major land masses tend to grow warmer in summer and colder in winter than major water bodies, so that zones of low pressure build up over the continents in summer and over the oceans in winter, giving rise to seasonal shifts in wind direction. Topographical features also affect wind flow and rainfall distribution, as in the case of orographic lifting. The intertropical convergence %one

In the lower latitudes the main airflows are from the anticyclones (areas of high pressure situated over the subtropics in both hemispheres) towards the Equator, where the high rate of heating causes the air to rise and thus create a zone (or 'trough') of low pressure. Because winds from the northern and southern tropics (the ' trade winds') converge in this equatorial zone, it is called the intertropical convergence %one (ITCZ) or equatorial trough. The rotation of the earth causes the trade winds to blow, not from the north and south, but from the northeast in the northern hemisphere and the southeast in the southern hemisphere. Where these two wind systems converge both air streams are deflected upwards with immense force, rising to around 5 000 to 13 000 metres (15 000 to 40000 feet) above sea level. This is a much greater altitude gain than is achieved by convection alone, and the resultant rapid cooling effect on heavily moisture-laden air is to cause extremely heavy rainfall. As a result of seasonal temperature variation, the atmospheric pressure zones that create the ITCZ shift seasonally, causing the zone itself to 'migrate' in step. This migration lags behind that of the sun, reaching its northernmost limit in August and its southernmost extreme in February (Figure 2.3). Because the southern hemisphere contains much more water and much less land than its northern counterpart, their thermal characteristics are quite different, and this

CLIMATIC

SOURCES

33

Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Figure 2.}. Annual march of the Sun's zenithal position (solid line) and of the ITCZ (dashed line). (Source: Riehl 1979, Figure 1.9.)

causes the ITCZ to migrate around the latitude of six degrees north, rather than around the Equator itself. The monsoon

The importance of seasonal winds has long been recognized and many have special names. Among the better known are the Mistral in the south of France, the Sirocco blowing from North Africa and the monsoon over much of the tropics and subtropics. Indeed the monsoon has given its name to a monsoonal category of climates, which are of such widespread importance that they deserve at least brief separate treatment. The areas of monsoonal circulation cover most of the developing world, except Latin America, northern and southern Africa and parts of the Middle East. However, not all of the areas experiencing monsoonal air flows also receive its characteristic rainfall. Climatologists distinguish three monsoonal systems: those of West and Central Africa, those affecting the South Asian subcontinent (the 'Indian' monsoon), and those of southeastern Asia and northern Australia. The name monsoon derives from the Arabic word for season, and its basic cause is the seasonal thermal contrast between the surfaces of the land and the sea. In the northern hemisphere the monsoon blows from the northeast in winter, bringing drought, and from the southwest in summer, bringing heavy rain. (South of the Equator the respective wind directions are southwest and northeast.) The monsoon is characterized by a steady advance of summer rain across the land over

34 THE SOURCES OF SEASONALITY a period that can be fairly protracted. For example, the South Asian monsoon begins in the first half of May and advances steadily across the subcontinent to reach its northern limit (the Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain chain) by the beginning of July. Such is the suddenness and violence with which this monsoonal system arrives that it is usually said to have 'burst'. With the equinox the seasonal wind reversal occurs and the rain slowly retreats, finally reaching the Coromandel Coast again around the beginning of December. The above description suggests that latitude is the overwhelming factor determining the seasonal rainfall and temperature distribution patterns. However, this effect is subject to considerable modification by the physical characteristics of a region, a fact which is of enormous importance to the study of seasonality, and in particular the ways in which its effects can be ameliorated by natural forces and human intervention. One example already mentioned is orographic lifting, which creates relatively heavy rainfall on the windward side of mountains and mountain ranges and a 'rain shadow' effect on the leeward side. If prevailing wind direction changes seasonally this can create complementary growing seasons on the different sides of the range. Mountains can also deflect winds in a direction parallel to the earth's surface, as when the Himalayan barrier deflects the summer monsoon towards the northwest, thereby fundamentally affecting the distribution of monsoonal rain over the Gangetic Plain. The effect of altitude on temperature is well-known; perhaps not so well-known is the effect of continentality (distance from the sea) on seasonal temperature regime. The western sides of continents tend to be drier than the eastern sides due to a combination of high pressure zones and cold currents on that side. Deserts have a desiccation effect on surrounding areas — which is why East Africa has lower and less reliable rainfall than its location on the Equator would otherwise suggest. Such macro climatic differences are discussed in Chapter 4, as are more localized differences which can produce distinct microclimates in particular areas. These influences notwithstanding, the effect of latitude is the strongest overall determinant of climate and as such forms the basis of most attempts to identify climatic zones. Tropical Rainfall Zones

Among the major causes of seasonal change in rainfall patterns in the tropics the first is the seasonal 'migration' of the ITCZ, in whose vicinity there is always rain. Second there is the influence of the subtropical highs. These are elliptical zones of high pressure over the oceans, which vary seasonally in intensity and size. Models have been

CLIMATIC SOURCES 35 constructed which divide the tropics into three basic zones, one of considerable rainfall near the Equator, where the ITCZ is nearby throughout the year, one of very low rainfall at a latitude of about 15 to 25 degrees (i.e. near the subtropical highs) and an intermediate zone where the effects of these two influences alternate seasonally (Nieuwolt 1977, Ch. 8). At lower latitudes this alternation tends to produce one dry and one rainy season a year; nearer the Equator two dry and two rainy seasons alternate. In practice this relatively simple pattern is complicated by several other factors, some of which have already been mentioned and some of which are not yet fully understood, so that local patterns of rainfall vary considerably from those the models tend to predict. Seasonal distribution of rainfall in the tropics does, nevertheless, conform sufficiently well in practice to the theoretical pattern to make the above fourfold classification meaningful. Taking Nieuwolt's mean monthly rainfall of 60 mm as the dividing line below which a month is described as 'dry', 2 the four zones are as follows: 1. Areas with no dry season, i.e. no month with a mean rainfall of less than 60 mm; 2. Areas with two rainy seasons and two dry seasons; 3. Areas with only one rainy season and one dry season; 4. Dry areas. A generalized picture of the global distribution of these seasonal rainfall patterns is shown in Figure 2.4. This map confirms that the four zones do lie in recognizable, if highly modified, latitudinal bands. The areas with no dry season tend to occur in the Equatorial zones of Africa, Asia, Oceania and Latin America, where the ITCZ is nearby all year round. These areas are surrounded and flanked by regions with two rainy seasons (bimodal pattern), which are in turn flanked by zones of a single rainy season (unimodal pattern), with dry areas towards the limits of the tropics, near the subtropical highs. The tropical and subtropical locations of Figure 2.2 (other than Singapore and Cherrapunji) were selected so as to illustrate with data from three widely spaced locations in each, the typical seasonal rainfall patterns of the above four zones. These graphs illustrate the overall influence of the annual migration of the ITCZ. First, the three sites defined as having no dry season do nevertheless have the pattern of two relatively wet seasons alternating with two relatively dry ones. This conforms with the picture seen in the two-wet-two-dry zones on either side, resulting from the double overhead passage of the ITCZ during the year. Second, even in the three sites in the dry zone, which are on the verges of the tropics, what little rainfall they do receive is still

T H E SOURCES OF S E A S O N A L I T Y

No dry season

3 Two rainy and two dry seasons

I One rainy season only

i

1 Dry or extra-tropical

Figure 2.4. Seasonal rainfall distribution types in the humid tropics. (Source: Nieuwolt 1977, Figure 8.6.)

Table 2.1. Walsh's provisional classification scheme of tropical climates on the basis of rainfall seasonality Absolute: seasonality Length (jf dry season (DM) DM Symbol Type B

Perenially wet Wet with short dry season

C

A

(months <4")

Relative seasonality Seasonality index

Symbol Type

0

0

1—2

1

Wet, seasonally 3-4

2

SI

< 0.20 Very equable 0.20—0.39 Equable but definite drier season Rather seasonal 0.40-0.59

dry

D E

Wet and dry 5-7 Dry, seasonally 8-9

3 4

wet

F

Dry with short

10—11

5

12

6

wet

G

Arid

0.60-0.79 Seasonal 0.80-0.99 Markedly seasonal: long drier season Most rain in 1.00— 1.19 Ss 3 months > 1.20 Extreme: almost all

Note: Symbol*is added (e.g. C*, D*) where there are two dry seasons. (See also Figure 2.5.) Source: Walsh (1981) Table 1.2.

CLIMATIC

SOURCES

37

D3

0

300 miles

0

500 km

Gl

Fl

El

Figure 2.5. Climates of sub-Saharan Africa based on rainfall seasonality. See Table 2.1 for key to zones. (Source: Walsh 1981, Figure 1.4.)

concentrated in a single period of the year. Finally, if northern and southern stations are compared, it will be seen that the period of maximum rainfall generally coincides with the appearance overhead of the ITCZ. It must be stressed, nevertheless, that the delineation of zones in Figure 2.4 is a generalized one only, and that not all individual locations within a depicted zone will conform to type either in one individual year, or indeed even when figures are averaged over a number of years. Classifying climate by rainfall seasonality

The broad four-fold classification of rainfall seasonality illustrated in Figure 2.4 is capable of much greater refinement. Walsh has suggested an approach which ' refers to the degree of contrast in relative terms between the amounts of rain at different times of year' (1981, p. 13). He suggests two ways of measuring this: a 'seasonality ratio', which measures the range of mean monthly rainfall, and a 'seasonality index', which is:

38

THE SOURCES OF SEASONALITY

Simply the sum of the absolute deviations of mean monthly rainfall from the overall mean, divided by mean annual rainfall. In theory this index can vary between 0.00 (if all months have equal amounts of rain) and 1.83 (if all rain is concentrated into a single month) {idem, p. 14; emphasis in original). Walsh used the above concept of relative seasonality, together with that of absolute seasonality (defined as the number of months with less than four inches (102 mm) average rainfall) to develop a system of classifying tropical climates in terms of the relative and absolute seasonality of their rainfall. The resulting categories are shown in Table 2.1. Walsh notes that there is some degree of correlation between the two classifying factors, aridity and seasonality, so that some of the 49 possible combinations in the table will not arise in practice. Nearly all of the possible combinations are found in sub-Saharan Africa and their distribution is shown in Figure 2.5. Comparison with the representation of Africa in Nieuwolt's map (Figure 2.4), shows that, although there is broad similarity in the overall picture, Walsh's system provides a much more detailed categorization of seasonal rainfall regimes. SEASONAL VARIATION IN DAY LENGTH

Although in non-equatorial locations day length varies directly with temperature, the effect of these two variables on plant growth is different. Darkness will preclude such growth, even if temperatures are high, while plants will not grow in polar climates, despite a six-month summer day. Light is essential to photosynthesis, the process whereby a plant synthesizes organic material from carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and water in soil in the presence of chlorophyll (the green matter in plant leaves). Ninety to ninety-five per cent of their dry matter is derived from this process. Within a certain temperature range, plant growth is a function of both temperature and light, so that one may in a sense substitute for the other. This is important when locations at different latitudes are compared, since in summer with increasing latitude, day length (photoperiod) increases as temperature falls. In addition to its effect on growth, photoperiod can also be a determinant of an organism's development (i.e. the achievement of different stages of growth). In particular, the reproductive cycle in certain plants and animals is initiated only when photoperiod reaches a certain critical level (Chapter 4). The tropics are in two respects relatively advantaged over the temperate zones in regard to solar radiation. First, the sun is closer to the zenith all year round, so that the intensity of radiation is greater.

CLIMATIC SOURCES 39 Second, seasonal variation in day length {diurnal variation) is a direct function of latitude, so that seasonality of both temperature and photoperiod decrease with decreasing latitude. Figure 2.6 shows photoperiod at the winter and summer solstices at various latitudes. At the equator, day length is the same all year round. On the edge of the tropics the difference between maximum and minimum day length is around three hours; at 50 degrees north or south - approximately the latitude of Frankfurt, Kiev, Winnipeg and the southern tip of South America — it is around eight hours. At the latitude of Stockholm, Leningrad and Anchorage the difference stretches to about 135 hours. Unfortunately, the above advantage is to some extent offset by a negative sunlight—rainfall relationship. The rain-bearing ITCZ is overhead in the tropics during the period of high zenithal sun, so that the period of the longest days and the most intense solar radiation is also the rainy season. The consequent heavy cloud cover filters out or reflects back a significant portion of the insolation reaching the earth, with correspondingly negative effects on photosynthesis. SEASONALITY OF DEMAND 3

The climatic cycle results in seasonality of agricultural production, but another important source of seasonality is demand. There are several reasons why demand for certain goods and services may be seasonal. One is climate itself, the garment industry and tourism being examples of industries it affects. Agriculture can be similarly affected. In the temperate zones, for example, the ingredients for soup are in high demand in winter, as are those for ice cream in summer. In tropical climates thirst-quenching fruits tend to be in high demand at the hottest time of year. Second, where incomes are seasonal there will tend to be corresponding seasonal peaks in demand for certain produce. In developing countries the demand for high quality agricultural produce like fruits, vegetables, meat and dairy produce tends to peak when income peaks. Demand for some products is complementary with that of others. For example, in parts of South Asia those who can afford it take a dish made from milk and mangoes when the new mango crop appears, so that the mango season produces a minor peak in the demand for milk. The above relationships are relatively straightforward, but two other sets of reasons for demand-induced seasonality deserve rather closer attention. One of these is non-climatic, being rooted instead in the social, religious, legal and administrative structure of society itself. This

T H E S O U R C E S OF S E A S O N A L I T Y

4°

24h 00™__ r - B __00 h 00m 24 00^-^ " ~^^00h 00m h

12h 07m

June 21st (Summer solstice)

12h 07m December 22nd (Winter solstice)

Figure 2.6. Length of day at the summer and winter solstices (northern hemisphere). (Source: Rumney 1968, Figure 6.1.)

is dealt with in the next section. The other is derived demand. If an industry's output is seasonal, the demand for goods and services deriving from that industry will also be seasonal. The demand for seeds, farm machinery and fertilizer obviously falls into this category. More importantly, as far as seasonal deprivation and Third World poverty are concerned, the demand for farm labour is also seasonal, and thus so are the incomes of those supplying it. + Non-climatic sources Legal requirements, accounting practice, tax regulations, social customs, religious stipulations and other such social phenomena can cause sometimes pronounced seasonal patterns of demand for, and supply of, the products of particular industries. In the developed world there is certainly a customary element — usually of religious origin — in seasonal demand for certain goods, such as greetings cards, fireworks, toys and turkeys. Otherwise, seasonality there tends to be rooted in such administrative events as the end of the financial year or the beginning of the vehicle registration year. In developing countries non-climatic sources of seasonality tend, in contrast, to spring from much more deeply rooted social attitudes and customs and in sincerely held religious beliefs. Their effects are correspondingly more pervasive, and their impact much less marginal in terms of the national economy in general and the agricultural economy in particular. The greatest direct

NON-CLIMATIC SOURCES

41

impact is that caused by religious feasts and fasts, the former producing seasonal fluctuations in the demand for certain agricultural produce, the latter causing variation in the quantity, or quality, of labour supply. In developing countries both of these retain a significance, and demand a level of sacrifice, that have long disappeared in both the capitalist West and the socialist East. RELIGIOUS OBSERVANCES

The requirements of the Islamic faith are particularly important here. First, it is the most widespread religion in the developing world today, professed by almost a billion people; Muslims form the majority of the population in forty countries (United Nations 1988, p. 17). Second, it is one in which seasonal feasts and fasts hold a particularly important place. And finally the lunar basis of the Islamic calendar has farreaching implications for seasonality of agricultural activity. The time taken for the moon to orbit the earth is not an exact fraction of that taken by the earth to orbit the sun, so that a calendar, like the Islamic one, which is fixed precisely in relation to the lunar month, can relate only approximately to the astronomical year. Each Islamic year has twelve months of 29 or 30 days (depending upon the position of the moon) and the year is 3 54 days long. Since this is 1 ij days shorter than the astronomical year, a given date in the Islamic calendar will move forward by eleven, sometimes twelve, days each year. Over a period of 32 or 33 years, then, any given date will occur in every possible season. The great annual fast of the Islamic calendar is the month of Ramadan, during which adult Muslims are required to abstain from all food and drink between sunrise and sunset.4 When Ramadan coincides with a season of peak agricultural activity, the debilitating effects of the fast have clear implications for the labour supply situation. Strict observance of the Christian equivalent of Ramadan, the Lenten fast, has all but disappeared in the West, but it continues to be observed faithfully among Coptic Christians in countries like Ethiopia, Egypt and Syria. Lent lasts for a period of six weeks, during which Copts may neither eat nor drink before midday. The debilitating effects of such a regime were recognized at least as long ago as the sixteenth century, when Muslims on the Horn of Africa under Mahomet Gran invaded Christian Ethiopia every year for five years during Lent, in the knowledge that the severity of the fast would have weakened their enemies' resistance (Pakenham 1959; it is not recorded whether the Christians recouped their losses during Ramadan). In agriculture, too,

42

THE SOURCES OF SEASONALITY

the effects of the Lenten fast are debilitating, reducing labour supply, at least in the forenoon. In the tropics this timing is important, as the hardest work of the day is generally reserved for the morning hours, when the day is cool and people are freshly rested. Unlike Ramadan, however, Lent falls at more or less the same time each year; it can affect the spring ploughing, but it never coincides with the harvest, normally the period of maximum labour requirements. The seasonality implications of religious feasts tend, for a number of reasons, to be greater for the livestock sector than for crop production. First, meat and many other livestock products can — perhaps with some difficulty — be supplied at any time of the year, whereas with crops offseason supply may be difficult or even impossible, so that the custom of consuming them in the off-season is unlikely to have sprung up in the first place. The second factor is conspicuous consumption. At seasonal feasts and festivals, as for example when there is a recognized marriage season, it is customary to consume the best - for which one can usually read 'the most expensive' — food that can be obtained. Foods of animal origin, particularly meats, are usually the most expensive of all. All animal foods require the conversion of vegetable protein into animal protein, and this is technically inefficient (that is, the ratio of protein production to protein intake is low). In addition, in the case of meat, production entails the destruction of a resource which if left alive could usually have continued to produce a range of goods and services. The most important source of seasonality in demand for livestock produce is that connected with ritual slaughter. There are certainly examples of ritual offerings of vegetable produce: the ancient Greeks sacrificed corn and wine as well as flesh; in many Asian religions, including Buddhism and Jainism, offerings of vegetable produce and non-slaughter animal produce like ghee and milk, are commonplace; a Christian harvest festival is an entirely vegetarian affair. However, such offerings do not normally generate seasonal peaks in demand since they are small-scale and regular (daily, fortnightly, monthly) rather than seasonal; even when they are seasonal, they tend to occur at the harvest, when food is most abundant. In the case of the ritual slaughter of animals, on the other hand, the value of the sacrifice tends to be much greater, and in several important cases the ritual is a seasonal one. In animal sacrifice, the high value of the resource that is consumed certainly in itself has symbolic significance. It is a sacrifice in both senses of the word. Indeed, such slaughter is in some cases a substitute for ancient and now outlawed rites involving human sacrifice. This is

NON-CLIMATIC SOURCES 43 the case in the worship of the Hindu goddess Kali (or Durga), wife of Siva, who is reputed to bring bloodshed, disease, death and destruction in her wake. Kali worship, or propitiation, is particularly important in northeast India and Nepal, and at one of the greatest festivals of that area, Dasain or Durga Puja, which falls in September or October, thousands of goats, buffaloes, poultry, sheep and pigs are slaughtered for the Goddess.5 In terms of the scale of slaughter worldwide, however, the most important season of animal sacrifice must be the Islamic festival of Id al-Adha. This commemorates the prophet Ibrahim's (Abraham) sacrifice of a ram instead of his son Ishmael and traditionally marks the end of the season of the Hajj, or pilgrimage to Mecca.6 On this occasion a sheep, goat, bull or camel which is 'without blemish' is to be sacrificed by any Muslim man who can afford it. Up to seven men can participate in the sacrifice of an animal, especially a large animal such as a bull or camel. The meat is divided into three portions, one each for the family, friends and the poor. Seasonal demand of the type just described is unlikely to affect the size of the national herd, for sacrificial animals are almost always male. It can, however, have a detrimental effect on herd quality. First, sacrificial beasts are generally far above average in quality, so that regular culling of such animals tends to erode a herd's genetic base.7 Second, the need to produce top quality beasts for a festival creates considerable demand for quality livestock feed such as bran and oilcake in the preceding months, and consequently high prices. If a major ploughing season, or other season of hard work for work animals, coincides with a period of high feed prices, it will become unusually expensive for farmers to feed the customary small amounts of supplementary concentrates. Any resultant impoverishment of the animals' rations will probably produce a negative reflection in the quality of their work performance, in their lifespan, or both.

Seasonality and the disadvantaged

T H E ' D I S A D V A N T A G E D ' will here be taken to comprise the very poor, the victims of intra-family discrimination and in some cases minority groups. 'Poor' is, of course, a relative term, but Lipton (1986) has identified a group, whom he calls the ultra-poor, whose access to food is so tenuous that they can in effect be regarded as a separate group in society. The ultra-poor follow what he calls the 'two 80 per cent rule', that is they tend to eat 'below 80 per cent of FAO/WHO (1973) weight-adjusted dietary energy requirements, despite spending at least 80 per cent of income on food'. Hence the members of this group ' eat so little food as to be at significant risk of not meeting their dietary energy requirement' (ibid., p. 4). They are set apart by the fact that there are 'quite sharp turning points in food behaviour' between them and 'everyone else'. Lipton distinguishes several such turning points. First, this is the only group which characteristically spends a constant proportion of income on food even when income rises slightly. Second, they have 'sharply higher' child/adult ratios. Third, they are 'especially likely to be landless, or (in semi-arid areas) to operate below five acres or so' and are correspondingly dependent upon casual labour. Finally, unlike people who are merely poor, lower income does not induce higher participation in work among the ultrapoor 'perhaps because they are too often hungry or ill'. Lipton estimates that ten to twenty per cent of the population of most low income countries are either members of this group or at serious risk of falling into it 'if bad life events, years, and/or seasons overlap or coincide' {idem).

Cutting across this economic categorization are the largely social factors that can make for intra-family inequalities in access to food and 44

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED 45 other resources. The old and the sick may or may not fall into this category, depending largely upon their normal or previous status. Women and children - especially the under-fives, and most especially those in the six-months-to-two-years group - are the most likely to suffer from this type of discrimination, as will be shown later.1 It would be wrong to assume that the absolute level of poverty of a family and discrimination against certain members within it are necessarily mutually reinforcing. In the case of women there is evidence of significant levelling out of intra-family differences as income level declines. This is especially true of societies in which the seclusion of women is traditional, for in such societies the practice is not commonly followed among the poorest groups — if only because the women must contribute to family income by going out to work or beg. Although this in turn exposes a woman to discrimination outside the home (in such forms as sexual harassment and less pay for equal work), within the family it often seems to enhance her relative status. Compared with a woman kept in seclusion, her relative nutritional status (and possibly that of accompanying children) may be better because of meals provided as either wage goods or charity. Moreover, her (at least partial) control of some of the family's income may give such a woman the opportunity to counteract existing intra-family discrimination by siphoning off compensating amounts for herself and her children. Nutrition is not the only factor. The need for women from ultra-poor families to work can act as an incentive for the family to practise contraception, while these women's relative freedom may well make it easier (both physically and psychologically) for them to attend family planning clinics. They also have access to much wider sources of information and ideas than women in seclusion and hence far greater opportunities to join informal, and even formal, mutual support groups with others similarly placed. Finally, within their families, women who go out to earn are likely to be regarded as an asset rather than a responsibility. (It needs to be emphasized that the freedom enjoyed by such women is only relative and that they may still suffer from intra-family discrimination.) Minority groups may have special seasonality problems for cultural or religious reasons, but it would be difficult to generalize about these, with circumstances varying so greatly from one society to another. More generalization is possible with what might be called 'economic minorities', that is groups like pastoralists and hunter-gatherers, who are perhaps within the agricultural sector broadly defined, but whose traditional means of livelihood sets them apart from the majority,

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SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

usually agriculturalist, community. The problems of such groups need not necessarily stem from active discrimination by the majority. They may arise because policy makers do not understand specific difficulties such groups face, or because of conscious concentration on the problems of the majority in order to deploy resources where their effect will be most widespread. Seasonality may affect the disadvantaged in a number of ways, all of them interconnected to some degree. The connection between employment, income, savings and credit on the one hand and nutrition on the other was explored from a theoretical standpoint in Chapter 1; many more inter-relations of this type exist. For example, the housing of the ultra-poor is unlikely to provide adequate shelter in the rainy season, and where there is a cold season their clothing is never warm enough, nor do they find it easy to procure fuel. If these problems are sufficiently severe they can lead to seasonal peaks in diseases like tuberculosis and pneumonia. In many societies fuel and water collection is the responsibility of women, and sometimes children. Not only do they often have to trek long distances in the hot sun to collect water in the dry season, but they also have to spend long hours searching for sufficient dry fuel during the rains.2 Seasonal water shortages can lead to skin diseases, while seasonal peaks in water contamination can produce intestinal disorders often resulting in diarrhoea and consequent nutritional loss. Seasonal fuel shortages may lead to inadequate cooking and therefore poor digestibility. Alternatively, as a fuel economy measure food for several meals may be cooked in bulk, so that the sterilization effect of cooking is lost during its subsequent storage. Virtually all of these problems ultimately manifest themselves in the areas of health and nutrition (which are themselves highly interconnected). The present chapter will therefore concentrate on these areas of concern.3 Nutritional wellbeing has four major determinants: food availability, nutrient requirements, food behaviour and nutrient wastage. Aggregate food availability is obviously seasonal, but as suggested in the first chapter, seasonality affects the more nutritious foods, those rich in essential vitamins, minerals, amino acids and fats, even more than those which are simply rich in energy (starchy staples). Nutritious foods of vegetable origin are often not only highly seasonal in production: they are also often highly perishable, so that for most of the year they are unobtainable. Even if they can be stored or processed this often not only increases their cost (if only through losses) but may also reduce their nutritional value. Nutritious foods of animal origin are commonly

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

47

less seasonal in production, but they are usually relatively expensive all year round. In some locations nutritious foods may be gathered from the wild, but again availability is normally seasonal. This is obviously true of vegetable produce like fruits, seeds, nuts and tubers, but it is also true of animal foods such as eggs and the flesh of migratory species. The most obvious example of seasonal variation in nutrient requirements is the high energy needs imposed by a season of hard physical labour and the corresponding drop in energy needs during the slack season. In addition, certain categories of people also have special nutritional needs. For example, pregnant and lactating women have unusually high calcium requirements and children have high protein requirements. Such requirements will be seasonal to the extent that there is a seasonal pattern to births (and there is strong evidence of this, as will be shown later). Food behaviour relates to the way food is utilized. Problems here may be physiological or socio-cultural. The most important among the former arise because certain illnesses like malaria and many respiratory infections - but even a general feeling of discomfort arising directly or indirectly from very hot weather - can result in anorexia (loss of appetite). On the socio-cultural side, food that is available may be rejected because of taboos; mistaken beliefs as to the edibility of certain foods may lead to their rejection; attitudes towards the proper feeding of certain groups - especially weanling children, the sick, the aged and women during pregnancy and the post-parturition period - can be nutritionally harmful; certain methods of preparing and cooking food can reduce its nutritional value, even leading to nutritional wastage where infection is introduced.4 Any or all of these problems may have a seasonal peak. Nutrient wastage occurs largely through certain parasitic and infectious diseases. The conditions that cause the greatest degree of wastage, and which are very widespread in the tropics, are gastrointestinal complaints which result in diarrhoea and/or vomiting. The above nutritional problems tend to be strongly interconnected and mutually reinforcing. Thus inappropriate food behaviour can worsen nutrient wastage, as happens with the mistaken but widespread belief (not only in developing countries) that food intake should be reduced when diarrhoea is present. Food behaviour may also interact negatively with food requirements, as in the case of fevers, which are symptomatic of many tropical diseases. These can cause an increase in energy requirements and thus a rundown in reserves unless food intake

48

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

is increased. However, food intake is often actually reduced because of anorexia or even unconsciousness. The most widespread and damaging interconnection probably arises from the relationship between nutritional requirements and food availability. Such a connection is implicit in one of Lipton's points about the ultra-poor, namely that they lack sufficient energy for work. Where such a situation prevails, the affected individuals will remain trapped in a vicious circle in which undernutrition itself prevents them from securing more food. Any such problem can only be exacerbated by the observed tendency in many localities for the hungry season to coincide with peaks in labour requirements. This is especially true in areas with a unimodal rainfall pattern, for here the onset of the rains, signalling a rush to get the land prepared for the next crop, is a time when the previous harvest is long past and food supplies are, especially for the disadvantaged, approaching exhaustion. Peak energy requirements may also coincide with peaks in the incidence of diseases that cause anorexia or nutrient wastage, or both, perhaps because the rains flush excreta and other contaminants into sources of drinking water. The interconnectedness of seasonality of disease and nutritional problems is not of course limited to illnesses that cause nutrient wastage. Sickness can also have a longer-term negative effect on food availability, since many debilitating conditions have a variable seasonal incidence and will reduce the supply of labour for vital agricultural operations if their peaks coincide with peaks in labour requirements (Chambers et al 1981, Ch. 4). An especially important example is that of guinea worm infection: in India and Africa this condition, which causes temporary lameness and can confine the sufferer to bed for as much as five weeks, has a peak incidence which often coincides with the planting season (Muller 1981). The activities of biting insects not only cause disease: they also make field activities so unpleasant that absenteeism becomes a major problem. Townsend quotes the example otsimilium in the Transamazonica region of Brazil. Biting by this insect increases in the rice planting and harvesting seasons to such an extent that seasonal labour is very hard to obtain and families have even been known to abandon their farms before the harvest was complete (1985, p. 145). As in the case of the ultra-poor's energy-reserves/workcapacity problem, there is an element of circular causation in the disease/nutrition relationship also, for a poorly-nourished individual will often succumb to infection that a well-nourished one could fight off. Hence disease contributes to poor nutrition and poor nutrition contributes to disease.

SEASONALITY AND THE DIS AD V ANT AGED 49 A fairly large, and in recent years increasing, number of studies has documented seasonality of nutrition. Although these still tend to concentrate on particular aspects of the subject, and therefore cannot fully explore its breadth and the interconnectedness of its components, they do cover a very wide range of socio-economic and physical environments and provide invaluable insights into the nature, extent and causes of this aspect of the seasonality problem in general, and its effect upon the disadvantaged in particular. Many of these findings are particularly strong on the quantitative aspects of nutrition and they are sufficiently consistent that meaningful general conclusions can be drawn, even if the full complexity of the subject is as yet far from being well understood. One unique and exceptionally long-term baseline nutritional study, conducted under the auspices of the Dunn Nutrition Unit of the Medical Research Council (MRC) in The Gambia, has thrown a great deal of light on the question of seasonally changing nutritional wellbeing (as indicated by various anthropometric measures) and the interaction of these indicators with disease. The study was launched in 1951 and has provided, among other things, 'a unique set of continuous height and weight measurements extending for more than a quarter of a century for the whole population of two well defined African communities' (Billewicz and McGregor 1982).5 The study area has a unimodal rainfall pattern, with a rainy season lasting from late May to October or early November and peaking in August and September. As in so many studies of such areas, the rainy season, and particularly the late rainy season, was found to be one of particular nutritional stress with food reserves at their annual minimum. Malaria peaks about this time of year, as does the incidence of gastro-intestinal complaints, so that diarrhoeal disease is problematic, further depressing nutritional status. This last problem could relate at least in part to a general decline in level of hygiene during the rainy season, caused partly by rainwater washing contaminants into the wells and partly by the loss of the sterilizing effect of sunlight on the soil (McGregor et al. 1970, p. 70). As a consequence of such factors, children failed to gain weight during the rains, and adults lost weight towards the end of that season. Many other studies, although none of them as exhaustive as the MRC study, show that the above findings tend to be repeated in other parts of the developing world. Schofield (1974), Longhurst and Payne (1981) and Jiggins (1982) quote a number of (mainly African) studies which show adults losing weight and children failing to gain it in a seasonal cycle. (It is significant that this type of pattern has also been

JO

S E A S O N A L I T Y AND T H E DIS ADV ANTA GED

found in a study of South African blacks (Waldmann 1973).) There is also evidence from countries other than The Gambia of seasonal peaks in nutritional problems coinciding with peaks in infection. An example is reported from the Rufiji Valley in Tanzania, where the annual cycle of rains and floods produces a coincidence between a period of meagre food supplies and a high incidence of mosquito bites, resulting in widespread malaria and anaemia (Bantje 1982). Similarly, in Lesotho the period of highest frequency of low body weight, DecemberJanuary, was also the period for the highest incidence of deaths from pneumonia and was immediately succeeded by the month of the highest frequency of deaths from gastroenteritis (Huss-Ashmore 1982). Outside of Africa, seasonal patterns have been reported that are strikingly similar to the findings of the Gambian study of the MRC. Studies in El Salvador have shown that food stocks are low, and nutritional problems peak, during the rainy season, as does the incidence of diarrhoeal disease, respiratory disease and malaria (Trowbridge and Newton 1979, Stetler et al. 1981). Other studies in the Punjab (Gordon et al. 1963, Kielmann and McCord 1978), Bangladesh (Chen et al. 1979, Chowdhury et al. 1981, Black et al. 1982, Black 1982, Brown et al. 1982) and Papua New Guinea (Crittenden and Baines 1986) also show distinct patterns of seasonal nutritional stress coinciding with seasons of infection, particularly of diarrhoea. Although the rainy season is generally identified with the worst season for both infection and nutritional stress, this does not hold in all areas. In the Punjab, for example, it was the hot, dry season 'the most exacting climatic period of the year, with maximum temperatures regularly above 110 °F and sometimes exceeding 118 °F' (43 °C and 48 °C respectively) that was found to be associated with the highest death rates; infant mortality was actually at its lowest during the rains (Gordon et al. 1963, pp. 309-10). In Bangladesh the worst period for food shortages is during the two months after the monsoon rains, while the main crop is still ripening. Moreover, although there are seasonal peaks in the incidence of diarrhoeal disease (especially cholera in that country), longitudinal studies over a twelve year period have shown that the peak month could occur at any time between September and January (Chen et al. 1979), which is after the main (monsoon) rains. In Guatemala, the most important diarrhoeal disease, Shigella, was found to peak 'in the last months of the long dry season. In both the highlands and lowlands the frequency of infection tended to fall with some abruptness as the rainy season got under way' (Gordon et al. 1962, p. 391). This last point, touching as it does on altitude differences,

SEASONALITY AND THE DIS AD V ANT AGED

51

is an important one, as the same study showed that the seasonal increase in Shigella begins around two months earlier in the highlands (2000 to 2500 m) than in the coastal lowlands. This point both illustrates the degree of spatial differentiation in the incidence of seasonality and underlines the dangers of unthinkingly extrapolating findings about seasonality from one area to another, even within the same country. At the other extreme from locations with a markedly unimodal rainfall pattern are those areas near the Equator where there is no very pronounced seasonality of either rainfall or temperature regime. Even here, however, nutritional status can vary seasonally, although the variation is not so great as where rainfall distribution is unimodal. In a study of child malnutrition in the Nembi Plateau in the Southern Highlands of Papua New Guinea (around 6° South), Crittenden and Baines (1986) found statistically significant seasonality in birth weight, malaria, diarrhoea and other abdominal diseases, food availability, child weight-for-age, adult body weight and agricultural labour requirements. Seasonal variation in rainfall and temperature is sufficiently small in such areas that the staple crop, sweet potato, can be (and is) planted and harvested in any month. However, there is still sufficient weather variation and sufficient clustering of probability of climatic events like frost, waterlogging and drought that planting tends to be concentrated in months when conditions are most favourable. Thus seasonal peaks and troughs in nutrition are still found. Studies in areas of bimodal rainfall distribution generally show nutritional seasonality that conforms to the climatic pattern. Schofield reviewed a number of such studies and reports that, while the populations of both unimodal and bimodal rainfall areas suffer seasonality of food intake, seasonal variation in intake tended to be significantly greater in the unimodal areas. Against this, total annual level of intake tended to be lower in the bimodal areas (1974, pp. 23-4)This juxtaposition raises an interesting possibility as regards the costs of seasonality of income. The fact that total food intake is higher in the areas where seasonality is the greater could be a reflection of the storage costs of seasonality discussed from a theoretical viewpoint in Chapter 1. Longhurst and Payne report the results of computer simulations which suggest that the energy cost of storing excess food in the shape of bodily fat is high (1981, p. 52). If this is the case in practice, then the greater the seasonality of food consumption the greater will be the cost of storage in the form of body fat, and hence the higher will annual levels of food intake have to be in order to support a given annual level of energy expenditure.

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SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

Not all of the evidence seems to support the expected pattern, however. An example is the findings of the Machakos project in Kenya, which embraces a longitudinal nutritional survey in an area of bimodal rainfall (Onchere and Slooff 1981, Jansen 1982). First, although there was evidence of seasonality in the incidence of protein-energy malnutrition (PEM), there was no increase in PEM during the preharvest period. (There was, nevertheless, a reportedly significant drop in the breast milk yield of lactating mothers in the 'lean season'.) Second, although ' there did not appear to be an effect of seasonality on the incidence of diarrhoeal disease' eighty per cent of deaths associated with such disease occurred at a time of year that could not be clearly associated with any other seasonal peak. (This finding, it must be pointed out, is at variance with that of earlier work in neighbouring Uganda, where Poskitt (1972) reported seasonality of diarrhoeal disease, respiratory infection and malaria in each of two rainy seasons.) Findings such as those of the Machakos project remind us that we are far from fully appreciating the true nature and extent of the seasonal dimension of nutrition and infection. However, there are a few indications in the reported findings around which hypotheses could reasonably be constructed. In the case of nutrition, Onchere and Slooff (1981) postulate that the lack of seasonality is explained by an increase in food purchase in the lean period. If this is correct it could go a long way towards explaining the apparent anomalies reported earlier, for it suggests that the opening up of traditional societies to outside trade can play an important role in smoothing out seasonality in nutrition. Machakos, it should be noted, is only about 50 km from Nairobi and has good road communications with the capital. Off-farm cash earnings are correspondingly higher than they would be in a more remote area and slack season food imports from other areas should not be too costly. It is difficult, therefore, to escape the conclusion that the findings in question are very seriously affected by 'tarmac' bias and should not, therefore, be extrapolated to less accessible areas. In the case of death from diarrhoeal disease the researchers in the Machakos survey confess that it was 'difficult to explain' the observed seasonal pattern (Onchere and Slooff 1981, p. 45). Studies in other countries, however, suggest that good communications might themselves play a significant role in changing traditional peaks in disease. For example, Gordon and others have observed that outbreaks oiShigella sonnei in the lowlands of Guatemala coincide with the arrival of migrant labourers from the highlands, where the disease is endemic (Gordon et al. 1962, p. 394). In the Punjab, a team led by the same researcher noted that one

IMPACT ON THE ULTRA-POOR 53 possible explanation for the relatively low incidence of rainy season diarrhoeal disease in their study area was that travel was more difficult then ' with the likely result that less infection reaches the villages from outside sources' (Gordon et al. 1963, p. 309). It is therefore at least possible that an area such as Machakos, with its good communications with the outside world, may be both 'importing' and 'exporting' seasonal diseases in a way that would invalidate an explanation sought only in terms of local climatic patterns. + Impact on the ultra-poor According to the definition adopted earlier, the ultra-poor have levels of food intake that at times do not meet their energy requirements. Food has two essential purposes. It provides 'fuel', which the body converts into energy, and it supplies the raw materials required for bodily growth and maintenance. (This second aspect will be discussed later.) The body derives its energy from a slow 'burning' (metabolism) of carbohydrates, fat, protein or alcohol in the diet, a process which releases chemical energy. The body's energy requirements can be divided into two parts. The more important is determined by the basal metabolic rate (BMR), which is the amount of energy required for basic bodily functions like breathing and blood circulation. If these requirements are not met body weight will be lost, and in the longer term death will occur. Energy intake in excess of the BMR can provide for movement and work. If intake exceeds both requirements, the surplus is converted into fat and stored to form reserves which can subsequently be metabolized to cover any energy deficit. Studies which show seasonally falling body weights are therefore indicative of a seasonal energy deficit and a consequent metabolizing of reserves. If the energy deficit continues for long enough, other bodily tissues, including muscle, will be metabolized. Energy deficits are most likely to occur where a period of low food availability coincides with one of high energy requirements, high nutrient wastage, or both. Haswell (1981) has noted that nutritional studies which include observation on seasonality of both labour requirements and nutrition date back at least to the 1930s (in Malawi). In many subsequent reports of longitudinal studies it has been observed that peaks in agricultural workloads coincide with periods of food shortages. This type of finding is hardly surprising, especially in unimodal-rainfall/single-harvest areas, since work on the next year's crop cannot commence until many months after the harvest, and the

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SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

work of cultivation, weeding, harvesting and post-harvest operations must be completed before food stocks can again be built up. Where food reserves are inadequate to meet heavy seasonal demands, those working in agriculture will tend to lose weight. The ultra-poor will suffer most, as their initial food stocks are the least adequate and, where they are employed as labourers, they are likely to be given relatively heavy tasks to perform. Unfortunately very few studies have been carried out of adult weight loss by season, and of those that have been conducted few differentiate the sample according to socio-economic status (Longhurst and Payne 1981). Longhurst and Payne cite two studies of seasonality of adult weight loss, in The Gambia and Ghana, the second of which showed that such losses amount to as much as nine or ten pounds (4 to 4.5 kg). Haswell's work among agricultural communities in The Gambia shows the relationship between such weight losses and seasonal energy expenditure. She notes that energy requirements for agricultural work among (women) rice growers declined steadily after the harvest, from 1110 kcal per day in the immediate post-harvest period to 800 kcal in the early dry season and 300 kcal in the late dry season. With the rains, however, more than six months after the harvest, came a period of intensive agricultural work, when requirements peaked at 1200 kcal per day. Although this was to some extent offset by reduced energy inputs for non-agricultural tasks, the net effect was strongly negative, and many women were left in a state of energy deficit, ' drawing upon fat stored "on the back" as a source of supplementary energy' (1981, P- 39)Studies of food storage behaviour across the year largely confirm the hypothetical argument regarding savings that was put in Chapter 1. One of the better documented studies, by Chen et al. (1979) in Bangladesh, used the food storage position as a proxy for food availability, and thus quantified the seasonal position of ultra-poor (here identified as landless) families vis-a-vis their more fortunate neighbours (those with two acres-0.8 hectares - or more). The results, summarized in Figure 3.1, indicate that not only is the mean level of stocks much higher among the landowners (by a factor of eight), but seasonality of stocks is lower: coefficients of variation were 81.1 per cent and 56.2 per cent for the landless and landowners respectively. The landless were, in fact, never able to build up their stocks above one month's requirements. It is worth noting that the turndown in the stock position for the landless begins immediately after each of the harvests, while the landowners' stocks are still rising,

IMPACT ON THE ULTRA-POOR

55

14.0

12.0

3 10.0

6 8.0

I

6.0

4.0

2.0

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Month of interview Figure 3.1. Mean number of household food stocks by land ownership and month of interview (Matlab, Bangladesh). (One maund is approximately 37 kg.) (Source: Chen it al. 1979, Fig. 8.)

and that only the landless ever approach the critical level of having no food in store for a significant length of time. This happens twice in the year in question, but is especially crucial in the September—October lean period before the main harvest, when ' their dependence on wage income and market rice prices is complete' (ibid., p. 185). Toulmin's studies in Mali show that, while in every case' 'the household does its best to ensure that people are properly fed during (the) time of intense physical activity', 'surplus' households are able to save enough food to achieve this aim, while ' deficit' households found it very difficult to do so (1986, pp. 63—4). The latter already suffered from lower-than-average labour productivity, as they had few labouraugmenting assets like plough teams, 'dugwells' and cattle dung. Simmons's study in northern Nigeria also found that food consumption increased with labour requirements, but noted that calculations of energy requirements for work suggested that, while the better-off families (identified as those owning cattle) were able to meet their

56

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

consumption needs all year round (with some qualitative variation), poorer families face a definite shortfall in the October-January period (1981, p. 78). While actual food consumption can be assumed to reflect changes in food availability, the former is more difficult to measure.6 Lipton, however, quotes another study by Simmons in three villages in northern Nigeria which did produce such measurements: non-poor households there show no relationship of calories per consumption unit to seasonal instability. Those with very low income per consumption unit - who normally average below 2200 kcal per consumption unit per day over the year - show some tendency to suffer from greater seasonal variation as average intake declines. For those who are at slight risk of undernutrition, with intakes of dietary energy between 2200 and 2700 kcal daily, this intake is very weakly correlated with income per consumption unit; they also show a strong negative link between low intake and seasonal instability (Lipton 1986, pp. 4—5). If hungry season weight loss among adults is confined to loss of fat laid down during the post-harvest period, the result for those affected may be very unpleasant, but there is no reason to believe that their work capacity, and hence labour productivity, will be affected adversely. However, if a seasonal energy deficit is sufficiently large and sufficiently protracted to exhaust bodily stores of fat, the metabolic response of mobilizing muscle tissue to meet energy needs is very likely to reduce work capacity. Unfortunately the amount of empirical evidence available on the relationship between seasonal weight loss and any effect on agricultural productivity is very limited and inconclusive (Longhurst and Payne 1981). It can nevertheless be assumed that beyond a certain point weight loss will result in reduced work capacity, thus creating a vicious circle within which poor nutrition leads to reduced income, leading to still poorer nutrition, and so on. Even among those who are normally able to cover seasonal energy deficits from stored body fat, the interaction between intra- and inter-seasonal income variation will prevent their laying down sufficient bodily fat in a bad year to avoid loss of muscle tissue in a subsequent hungry season, again leading to loss of labour productivity.

• Intra-family disparity Many studies of seasonal variation in nutrition note that women and children tend to suffer from this much more than men. This may result from any combination of discrimination in the allocation of food, discrimination in the allocation of workloads or lack of allowance for

INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY

57

special nutritional needs during childhood, pregnancy and lactation (Schofield 1974, Chen et al. 1979, Chowdhury et al. 1981, Palmer 1981, Rajagopalan et al. 1981, Bantje 1982, and Crittenden and Baines 1986 among many). Unfortunately such observations are seldom satisfactorily backed up by measurements. Seasonal changes in body weight standardized for workloads provide a good indication of the net effect of seasonal changes in food allocation. They also reflect at least the energy component of special needs. But, although seasonal weight changes in children (and to a lesser extent in women) have been recorded in many studies, very few put these into perspective by recording parallel changes in the body weights of men of the same families. The Gambian MRC studies provide an important exception. In a survey of seasonal variation in body weights, Billewicz and McGregor reported losses in the agriculturally busy period of the late rains among both men and women. On a sample of 157 men and 201 women the annual mean weight was 58.5 and 52 kg respectively, and the weight loss was 'about 2.5 kg on the average' for both men and women (1982, p. 314). A lower average body weight for women is of course to be expected at any time of year. It is therefore significant that the absolute weight loss was the same for both sexes, for this means that the proportionate weight loss among the women was the greater of the two. Moreover the sample included pregnant women, for whom seasonal weight loss is of very great functional significance, since it has negative implications for the welfare of both mother and child.7 That pregnant women do in fact lose weight - as much as 4 kg - in the hungry season in countries like The Gambia has been shown by a number of studies (see for example Rowland et al. 1981 and Lawrence et al. 1987a). These studies also show that this results in low birth weights for babies born towards the end of the hungry season. One study reported that birth weight fell from 2922+53 g in the dry season to 2743+47 g in the rainy season (Lawrence et al. 1987a, p. 1449). Two overlapping studies among a pastoral community in Niger (Loutan and Lamotte 1984 and White 1986) provide another rare exception by documenting the relationship between men's and (in this case non-pregnant) women's seasonal weight loss and their respective agricultural workloads. These findings are illustrated in Figure 3.2. Note how the men show statistically significant average weight gain in the trimester immediately after the start of the rainy season (August to November), while the women do not. This is the beginning of the period of relative food abundance in this community, as milk production builds up after the lean months of the dry season. The body

58

SEASONALITY AND T H E DIS A D V A N T A G E D rains

cold

hot transition

rains

cold

hot transition

60

48

0 1980 ' 1981 ' 1982 Figure 3.2. Seasonal distribution of work (domestic labour, women; livestock work, men) and seasonal changes in mean body weight among WoDaaBe women and men. Weight changes: + + = statistically significant at the 1 % level; + = 5 % level; other= body weight, women; = body weight, men; wise not significant. = work, women ; • • • • = work, men. (Sources: body weights: Loutan and Lamotte 1984 Fig. 1; workloads: White 1986 Figs. 1 and 2.)

weight of the women does not, however, begin to increase until the next trimester. In the second year of the study there is another period of significant improvement in the men's body weights (May to September), while again there is no parallel improvement in that of the women. The period during which the two studies overlap provides the most convincing evidence of discrimination against women in the allocation of food. During the hot season up to May, both men and women show significant weight loss, as is to be expected when work loads are increasing and food production is low. During the May to September period workloads for both sexes are declining — the women's faster than the men's — and food supplies start improving with the advent of the rainy season. Yet over this entire period, while the men are recording significant average weight gain, the corresponding figure for the women shows no improvement whatever. It is unfortunate that these two studies merely overlap instead of coinciding, but if it can be assumed that the respective patterns of intra-seasonal variation were not too dissimilar over the two year period, a possible explanation for the different patterns of weight loss emerges. The August to November period is one in which the men's overall workloads fall by about 15 per cent, while those of women increase dramatically - by 180 per cent. It appears from these data, then, that the allocation of food to women in this period of the year is not sufficient for them to recover from dry

INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY

59

season weight loss as rapidly as the men. Generally speaking, the data in the diagram show that over the year women's workloads are higher than men's, their work seasonality is greater and their peak season workloads are much higher. Moreover these data somewhat understate women's relative workloads. The reported figures for the men give only livestock work, but this is virtually their sole occupation. In the case of the women the figures are for domestic work only, but in fact the women routinely lend a hand with livestock tasks, presumably during peak periods. If women are disadvantaged with respect to seasonal nutrition, this can be expected to cause problems for any children they are carrying or breast-feeding. The effect of season of birth upon birth weight was mentioned earlier. Season of birth also affects the infant's nutritional pattern in the critical first two years of life. The period immediately after birth is always critical. After that, however, the baby usually enters a period of relative safety. Mother's milk is not only the most complete of all foods: it also serves to pass disease immunity from mother to child. Therefore, so long as the supply of milk is adequate, the breast-fed child is well provided for in terms of both nutrition and protection from disease. The problems begin with weaning. Other than the period immediately after birth, the weaning period represents the most dangerous time of life for children in developing countries. The sometimes abrupt transition from breast milk to a poor quality, and often unhygienically-prepared, high-starch/low-protein diet has a very serious impact on the weanling child. Protein—energy malnutrition (PEM) becomes quite common at this stage of life, in the worst cases taking its extreme forms of marasmus and kwashiorkor.8 Malnutrition at this age is severely complicated by the fact that the child has lost the protection of passive immunity (that acquired from the mother), while effective immunity is still building up. Such infants are also 'more susceptible to climatic effects on wellbeing, and to defects of care and nutritional inadequacies, than younger or older children' (McGregor et al. 1970, p. 68). Apart from the period immediately after birth, the child below the age offiveis considered to be most at risk, but within this group those aged between six months and two years are especially vulnerable. Just how serious the problems of this last group are depends largely upon the season of birth. Humans are obviously not seasonal breeders in the biological sense, yet in many societies there is a distinct seasonal peaking of births. This can be caused by a variety of social factors. Seasonal migration of one gender group (usually the men) causes seasonality in conception. In

60

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

some societies there are traditional taboos on coitus at certain times of year.9 Conception rates often peak at festival times and slump during periods of hard work. Seasons of very hot weather can reduce conception rates by suppressing the libido and/or inducing people to sleep apart. The net effect on timing of births varies greatly between societies, but in some cases it actually produces a peak in births at the time of year least favourable to the child's survival. Palmer gives an example from an area in Bangladesh where the incidence of children coming off the breast peaks in December. This is just after the main rice harvest when women's workloads are heaviest due to crop processing and they have correspondingly little time for child care. This in turn means they resume ovulation in January-February, so that conceptions peak in March and births peak the following December. 'Hence the cycle in which child care and agricultural work compete for the mothers' time and energy is perpetuated' (1981, p. 197). For babies born at a time when maternal nutritional status is poor, the resulting problem of low birth weight is likely to be complicated by poor nutrition, for it can be assumed that poor maternal nutrition will be reflected in reduced milk output. Indeed, according to Drasar et a/., many studies have documented 'a severe reduction in breast milk production' at such times (1981, p. 108). Unfortunately, practical difficulties in the way of measuring breast milk output must cast doubt upon the precision of any such findings.10 Season of birth probably affects children's survival chances most strongly by the fact that it determines the season at which they enter the crucial age of six months to two years. Children entering this age group at the beginning of a period of heavy maternal workloads face an acute danger of malnutrition and infection. If they are left at home while the mothers go to the fields — or even worse, when the mothers have to migrate in search of work — the drop in breast milk intake is abrupt and the available weaning foods are usually nutritionally inadequate and unpalatable. This results in malnutrition and anorexia (Billewicz and McGregor 1982, Jiggins 1982, Gordon 1986). Moreover, as all women of working age are in the fields at such a time, the weanling children are left in the care of older children and very old or sick women. Inevitably the standards of both nutrition and child care fall. For example, they will be given (very probably contaminated) water to drink instead of breast milk. They may be allowed to crawl around the floor instead of being carried on the back, so that the risk of their picking up infection is greatly increased. Even if children in this age group are brought to the fields by their mothers, the amount of time

6l

INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY Age: < 6 months

6 months-2 years

2—5 years

Malaria

•Jii

Wet r 60

Diarrhoea and vomiting

40 •20 60

Skin sepsis

40 20

Figure 3.3. Prevalence by trimester of certain diseases in Keneba children, by age and season. (Source: McGregor et al 1970 Fig. 2.)

that can be set aside for breast-feeding may be less than normal. In addition, in some cases, as when women are preparing swamp ricelands or paddy fields, there is increased exposure to danger in the form of insect bites, especially by mosquitoes. In areas with a unimodal rainfall distribution, where seasonality of production and workloads are unusually high, the children in question - assuming they have survived the first season of stress — must endure a repeat of this in the second year before reaching the crucial age of twenty-four months. As opposed to this, children reaching this age six months later, enter the lean period after a more gradual period of weaning, when they are older and hence better able to face nutritional stress, and have only one such period to face during this crucial time of life (Kielmann and McCord 1978, Billewicz and McGregor 1982). The Gambian MRC study provides extensive quantitative evidence of the relationship between seasonality and nutritional stress in children and how these relate to season of birth and seasonality of illness. Figure 3.3 shows that a high incidence of disease affects all under-five age groups at all times of the year, but it is particularly pronounced in the wet season, when the figures can be quite startling. The diagram clearly demonstrates the strong association between the incidence of disease

6z

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

and age group, showing how the six-months-to-two years cohort is particularly badly affected. These figures well illustrate the point made earlier that in areas of unimodal rainfall distribution those born just before the onset of the rains are best placed for survival. During this period, when the environment is most hostile to survival, they are adequately protected against disease (by passive immunity) and best nourished because they are fed only from the breast. They then enter the dangerous 6-24 month age band at the beginning of a dry season and have to survive only one wet season before reaching the age of two. Figure 5.4(0) provides a case study of a girl born early in the dry season, illustrating the association between seasonality, disease and weight-for-age (as an indicator of nutritional status) over the first two years of life. During the first few months, no infections were recorded, and the girl's weight-for-age remained within acceptable limits (the Boston standards). However, with the onset of the rains infection began to appear, weight gain levelled off, and at times even became negative. Over this period, 'gains in weight practically ceased', and the gap between the infant's weight-for-age and the Boston standards widened significantly. The dry season saw considerable improvement, but even then the trend of the curve merely paralleled the median value of the standards. The onset of the second rainy season of her life again saw a levelling off of her weight gain, and the gap between her weightfor-age and the standards widened further. It is very significant that every infection was associated with weight loss. Similar loss occurred at the point when the girl finally came off the breast. The weight gain pattern of this child was far from unique. She was reported as being fairly typical of those in her age group who actually survived this period of life: in fact her weight gain in the dry season was actually rather better than average. A case study of a girl who did not survive this dangerous period of life is illustrated in Figure 3-4(£). These figures provide an empirical, and tragic, illustration of the hypothetical argument presented in Figure 1.2 (taking body weight as a proxy for the more general concept of food consumption used in the earlier diagram). Two critical points stand out clearly in this infant's short life. The first occurs about six weeks into the dry season, when her weight gain, already poor by the more normal local standards of the other infant, comes to a halt. This coincides with her contracting two seasonal illnesses, respiratory tract infection (RTI) and diarrhoea and vomiting (D and V). (In terms of Figure 1.2, her body weight fails to follow path Pr.) She now begins to lose weight rapidly, losing about 1.2 kg over the next two months or

63

INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY

Rains

Rains

No. 096; born 8.1.62;9

Clinical Survey Ended P: Pyrenia D:

Diarrhoea

V:

Vomiting

RTI: Respiratory tract infection C:

Conjunctivitis

WC: Whooping cough SS:

Skin sepsis (incl. abscess)

A:

Ascariasis

M:

Malaria

*

Specific treatment given

15, Malaria Parasite Density 9

12 15 Age (months)

18

21

24

[No. 120; born 4.3.62; 9 I P:

Pyrenia

Pn:

Pneumonia

SS:

Skin sepsis (incl. abscess)

C:

Conjunctivitis

M:

Malaria

A:

Anaemia

RTI: Respiratory tract infection D:

Diarrhoea

V:

Vomiting

WC: Whooping cough W:

Wasting

*

Specific treatment given

Malaria Parasite Density 3

6

9 12 Age (months)

15

18

Figure 3.4. Weight curve of two infants from birth to 24/17 months, illustrating the influence of infectious diseases and of season. (Source: McGregor et al. 1970 Figs. 3 and 4.)

64

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

so. The overall effect is that her net weight gain over the dry season is a mere 400 g, compared with a net gain of about 1700 g for the other girl. The second critical point occurs as soon as the next rainy season begins (equivalent to entering path P n ). Again she loses weight very rapidly, and finally dies about half way through the hungry season. THE SOURCES OF INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY

A review of the evidence on intra-family disparity in the allocation of resources and workloads suggests that its origins can usefully be divided into the following five categories: customary disparity, selfdeprivation, involuntary discrimination, 'calculated' discrimination and ignorance of special needs. In an actual situation more than one is likely to operate concurrently and the interaction is likely to be complex. Moreover the relative importance of each is likely to vary between cultures, between families and between seasons, and there will certainly be considerable grey areas where two or more categories overlap. Customary disparities

The fact that most societies are male-dominated is by now very well established, as is the fact that such societies are by no means limited to unschooled poor people in developing countries. Customary values which lead to discrimination against women are very likely, where food is scarce, to be reflected in its allocation. Even in the non-hungry season, the choicest foods and portions will often be reserved for the 'breadwinner', and in many societies it is expected that the women and children will eat only after the men have finished. Where food and other necessities are seasonally scarce, this reflection of male dominance takes on a more serious aspect, as has been shown by a number of field studies (Schofield 1974, Chowdhury et al. 1981, Rajagopalan et al. 1981, Bantje 1982). Intra-family discrimination by age may reflect a number of features of family structure and priorities (see below), but a customary element will often be prominent among them. Many traditional societies revere age, and infants occupy a correspondingly low place in the social order. This interacts with gender discrimination, so that where there is discrimination against both women and children, girls tend to come off worst of all. Abdullah and Wheeler (1985), for example, have reviewed a number of studies in South Asia which show that ' more girls than boys die in infancy and childhood, and more become malnourished'

INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY

65

(1985, p. 1305). Their own study in Bangladesh added further weight to this evidence. Not only did they find that in the under-five age group food intakes 'were low in absolute terms and also in relation to the household heads" (ibid., p. 1309), but that under-five girls 'received a smaller amount than boys, whether calculated as energy intake/kg or as a proportion of the household head's intake' (ibid., p. 1312). Surprisingly, though, the under-five girls' food allocation actually rose during the hungry season in both absolute and proportionate terms. No explanation is offered for this behaviour, but it does suggest that perhaps the families concerned were aware of the perilous nature of their daughters' nutritional status and were unwilling that this should sink below a certain level. It is possible too that mothers were practising some surreptitious reverse discrimination at this time of year, for the present author's field experience in Bangladesh indicates that mothers will sometimes manage to do this as a gesture towards their fellow sufferers. The division of labour along gender lines, or ' gender typing', can lead to sometimes extreme seasonal disparities in the allocation of workloads between men and women. Much of this is traditional, dating perhaps from the time when now-settled peoples were hunter-gatherers. In many societies the man's traditional role was that of warrior and hunter, and, probably in consideration of the special dangers of these tasks, the women were given responsibility for almost everything else. Thus women are generally believed to have been the first agriculturalists in most societies. With gradual game depletion and population growth, with settlement and the increasing importance of agriculture, and with the establishment of a central authority intent on maintaining law and order, men's traditional roles tended to become obsolete, while those of women have remained. Indeed women's workloads have often become increasingly arduous and time-consuming, as resource depletion has brought an increase in the amount of time and effort needed for such tasks as collecting fuel, fodder and other produce from the wild. The above simple model will naturally not fit all circumstances. For example, where plough culture is the norm both men and women have long been agriculturalists. Even in such areas, though, gender division of labour within farming is still traditional. Men nearly always do the ploughing, whereas weeding is one of the tasks most commonly reserved for women. Tasks such as transplanting and harvesting also tend to be divided along gender lines, although the precise division of labour varies by culture. Even where female seclusion is practised and

66

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

women therefore do not work in the fields, they still play a vital role in agricultural production by their involvement in farmstead tasks like post-harvest processing (threshing, winnowing, food processing, storage, etc.) and livestock care. Traditional division of labour along gender lines is certainly showing signs of breaking down, but this process has more often resulted in new lines of demarcation between men's work and women's work than in a more broadly based sharing of responsibilities. Where changes have occurred, the men have tended to take over the more attractive roles, leaving women with those that are more arduous or less rewarding. This is well illustrated by an example from Tanzania. There, as in so many countries, cooking and the collection of water for domestic use are the exclusive responsibility of women, and in the dry season the water collection occupies many woman-hours. Welcoming a proposed village water supply in such a part of the country, the men observed: ' Water is a big problem for women here. We can sit here all day waiting for food because there is no woman at home' (Jiggins 1986, quoting a study by Wiley). Yet in parts of the same country, while women continue to draw water for household use, the men now also draw it 'as a money-earning activity' (Kirimbai 1982, p. no). This last point is a crucial one. The development of the cash economy has been one of the most important mechanisms creating change in gender typing. Where female seclusion is practised, marketing of all farm produce is, of course, monopolized by men. But even where both men and women are involved in outdoor work, the production of new cash crops has often developed into a predominantly male domain, while women continue to produce foodstuffs for home consumption only. A related source of change is mechanization, a process which is almost inevitably associated with increased market orientation. Where a traditional women's task is mechanized it is often taken over by men. Palmer (1981) cites the examples of harvesting in Java and dehusking rice in many parts of Asia. Both of these tasks have tended to change from 'women's work' to fit occupations for men as a result of mechanization. The importance of all of this for seasonality is twofold. First, gender typing produces marked male—female differences in the seasonal distribution of workloads (see Figure 3.2). Its entrenchment in social values hinders the development of a more rational and equitable sharing of responsibilities. Second, as will be argued in a later chapter, increasing market orientation can be a very important component of an effective counter-seasonal strategy. In terms of family welfare, then, it

INTRA-FAMILY DISPARITY

67

is most unfortunate that cash income has become so concentrated in male hands, for, as Jiggins observes: 'A greater portion of the (cash) income accruing to women than to men tends to be spent on household welfare and consumption needs' (1986, p. n ) . This last is a prosaic echo of the Bengali proverb: Give money to a father and you give it to a man; Give it to a mother and you give it to a family. Self-deprivation

At least in the case of wives and mothers, it should not necessarily be assumed that their disadvantaged nutritional status arises solely and necessarily from an inability to stake a claim to available resources. A woman, in her role as provider of meals, is at the end of the family's food production process - one step further on than the ' breadwinner' (if indeed this is a separate individual). In this role she is likely to have a substantial de facto say in the allocation of shares of food, and it is far from uncommon for a woman in this position deliberately to cut her own share in order to reduce her family's suffering when food is short. It would surely be churlish to ascribe such self-sacrifice purely to male dominance or an early conditioning of girls. Involuntary discrimination

Some forms of discrimination are forced upon adult family members. An important example given earlier was that of mothers being forced by pressure of work to reduce the level of nutrition and nurturing of infants born at particular times of year. Another example derives from the widespread practice of employers providing meals to casual labourers as part of the wage payment. This type of arrangement is, whether they realize it or not, often advantageous to the former: since it prevents labourers from taking home at least a part of their wages to be shared with the family, it effectively increases the proportion of the wage that can be recouped in the form of higher labour productivity. During the hungry season, when unemployment is at its peak, often the only payment workers receive takes the form of meals on the job. Where this happens the employer's recouping of the wage good is maximized, while on the labourer's side certain family members are in effect being forced to appropriate all of the family's current income. ' Calculated' discrimination

Some writers have suggested that discrimination against young children in the seasonal allocation of food could result from a strategy of

68

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

deliberately diverting this scarce resource to working members of the family when labour demands are high and food scarce (Chambers et al. 1981, Ch. 7). This is not necessarily attributed to selfishness on the part of the dominant members of the family, but to the fact that life in rural communities, in the words of McGregor et al., 'has evolved through decades of trial and error, to the maximum advantage of the community as a whole, without special regard to the vulnerability of young children' (1970, p. 75). Others go rather further, as in Tomkins' assessment that in his study area in northern Nigeria ' the value of a preschool child in the community is relatively "low" and steps to alleviate or prevent illness are not rapidly taken'; this is particularly so if the illness occurs when agricultural activity peaks, when these children 'have least chance of obtaining medical care' (1981, p. 181). Such calculations may well be made - at least by default - within families, although it is obviously impossible to say how widespread the practice might be. However, it would be quite wrong simply to assume that such decision-making is either explicitly or implicitly shared equally by all of the family's adults. Setting aside the important emotional aspects of parenthood, it must be recognized that having children in the rural areas of poor countries represents an investment for the future. It increases future labour supplies and provides some security for the parents' old age. In some cases both parents may be forced to accept that the potential future income this 'investment' represents has to be placed at risk in order to satisfy urgent current needs, but before assuming this is always the case it should be recognized that the mother's investment in the child is much greater than the father's. Not only does childbearing involve nutritional loss, danger, and probable suffering for the mother alone, but she is also in a lifetime capable of having far fewer children than a man, and she therefore has by far the greater vested interest in the survival of any individual child. If explicit or implicit calculations of the type just described actually take place, then, they are more likely to reflect an unequal power structure within the family than a decision consciously or unconsciously arrived at by some consensus process among all its adult members. Ignorance of special needs

In developing countries intra-family disparities in the allocation of resources are often compounded by the fact that those discriminated against often have special needs which actually give them a betterthan-average claim on family resources. Women's health care in pregnancy, childbirth and the immediate post-natal period, present

ECONOMIC MINORITIES

69

special problems that male household heads do not always appreciate.11 Perceptions of the special health problems of under-fives are likely to be equally sketchy. In nutrition the special quantitative requirements of pregnant women and of growing children should be fairly obvious to anyone, but the qualitative nutritional needs of such groups are much less apparent. Seasonal implications of qualitative aspects of nutrition are discussed later in the chapter. + Economic minorities Numerically the most important such group are pastoralists, although there are also some areas of the world in which shifting cultivator or hunter-gatherer communities are still to be found. Any or all of these communities can be considered disadvantaged, because nowadays there is usually increasing population pressure on their lands. All of these peoples are to some extent nomadic. Pastoralists depend on two major resources, other than the animals themselves: grazing (or browsing) and water, and the geographical distribution of these resources changes with the climatic cycle. Nomadism may take a number of forms. In pure nomadic pastoralism, where the people depend entirely upon their flocks and herds, the community occupies a given site at certain times of the year, moving at other times in order to graze their pastures in rotation. Such moves are usually timed to coincide with seasonal shifts in local rainfall patterns, so that the best available grazing is used at any given time. Semi-nomadic pastoralists practise some form of cultivation during at least one of their settled periods. Transhumance is a form of pastoralism that takes advantage of seasonal differences in production potential caused by differences in altitude: transhumants migrate between cool mountain pastures in the hot season and lowland areas for the rest of the year. In this case only certain members of the community, for example the younger men, may traditionally migrate. Hunter-gatherers also move around, usually following a rotation which matches food availability, often changing from hunting to fishing to gathering of wild produce in the course of their migrations. Seasonality problems in employment, income, nutrition and disease exist among pastoralists, shifting cultivators and hunter-gatherers no less than among more settled agriculturalists. The studies by Loutan and Lamotte (1984) and White (1986) quoted earlier illustrate the problem of heavy work loads during the hungry season among the WoDaaBe pastoralists in Niger. Swift (1981) reported a similar mismatch between food production and labour requirements among another group of nomadic pastoralists, this time in Mali. An important

70

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

finding of studies such as these is that the amplitude and periodicity of the seasonal cycles of food production and resource use may be very different for pastoralists than for farmers. In particular, while the wet season is one of sometimes intense activity among farmers, it is in the dry season that labour demands peak among pastoralists, primarily because of the necessity to dig wells for their animals. And while the wet season is the hungry season for those employed in agriculture, production of the pastoralists' main food peaks during the rains, when grass is abundant, and drops to a minimum in the dry season.12 This implies that the seasonality problems of such people are quite different from those of the farming community, although they may be equally severe. Hence efforts to relieve such problems among the former will not directly benefit the latter. Probably the least understood of all economic minorities are the few hunter-gatherer groups that still exist in certain countries. One such group that has been the subject of intensive study are the San people, who inhabit the Kalahari Desert in Botswana. The San are by now fairly unique among the human race in that they have followed a more-or-less undisturbed lifestyle for perhaps thousands of years — greatly helped by the fact that their birth rate is low and their population level steady. The environment they inhabit is harsh and the climate very markedly seasonal. The rains come only in the period from December to April and the rest of the year is completely dry. Daytime temperatures are as high as 45 °C (113 °F) in September to November; night-time temperatures fall below freezing in June and July (Wilmsen 1978, p. 66). Medical anthropologists who have studied these peoples have noted that they suffer from chronic or seasonal malnutrition (Truswell and Hansen 1976). They have also noted a number of physiological features which may well have evolved in response to seasonal variation in their food supply. Most important among these are the heavy fat deposits which these people have around the buttocks and thighs, extra stores which can be metabolized when carbohydrate intake falls below requirements. One study in particular (Wilmsen 1978) took seasonality as its theme and reports in detail on per capita monthly food consumption by the hunter-gatherer ^u/oasi peoples of the /at/ai region of the Kalahari. The findings, reproduced here as Figure 3.5, indicate what a remarkable range of foods these people are able to obtain from their harsh environment at different times of year. Wilmsen's figures confirm, nevertheless, that there is still pronounced seasonality in their food intake. Calorie and animal protein intake peak during the five month

ECONOMIC MINORITIES

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• beans • fruits

cucumbers berries

Figure J.J. Average per capita monthly consumption of wild vegetable foods by /«;'/«/ ^u/dasi (1975). (Source: Wilmsen 1978 Fig. 1.)

period from April to August (2260 kcal/person in July) but consumption is much lower, 'perhaps even at a deficit balance', from October until January (ibid., pp. 68-9). Body weights certainly exhibit marked seasonality, as is shown by Figure 3.6. These data show a difference between greatest and least weight which is six per cent of the annual mean (ibid., p. 69). The author also provides data for a 'control' group, the pastoral-agricultural Herero, who lived in close proximity to the ^u/oasi 'experimental' group at the time of the study. Not only did the Herero have the higher mean body weights of the two, but seasonal variation was also very much less. This diagram clearly illustrates the

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

Figure 3.6. Average weights of £»/oast and Herero, 1975/76. Age = 9; z u / 6 a s i - N = 86. (Source: Wilmsen 1978 Fig. 5.)

20. Herero-N

danger of extrapolation from one group to another, even within the same geographical area. In this particular case, although both groups exhibit a similar pattern of seasonality, the amplitude of the two cycles is obviously very different indeed. 13 The major reason that members of economic minorities like those just mentioned are so often disadvantaged is that their traditional way of life is often under threat. As Figure 3.5 suggests, traditional systems employed by such peoples are often very finely attuned to the environment. They are also capable of being sustained indefinitely, but with increasing population and technological change their traditional lands are being encroached upon by others: The pastoralists of central Niger are probably typical of many others in losing land to agriculturalists, being increasingly forced to sell off their young cattle and herd cattle owned by non-pastoralists for low wages... As they and others lose assets and become poorer, they become less and less able to cope with bad years and also more vulnerable to regular seasonal stress (Longhurst et a/. 1986, p. 68).

QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF NUTRITION 73 In most places this kind of development probably began as a spontaneous movement, but more recently it has begun to be organized in more formal ways, in such forms as settlement schemes, irrigation schemes and agricultural estates. The very fact that the traditional inhabitants are often seasonal nomads facilitates the process of expropriation, since during their temporary absence their lands can easily be settled on the grounds that it is 'unoccupied'. A classic example of this was the settlement of 'unoccupied' Kikuyu lands by white immigrants in the highlands of Kenya. The fact that such peoples have no legally established title to their lands (having traditionally held them as common property) facilitates the process of settlement by outsiders. One of the most shocking present-day examples, despite its alleged good intentions, is the colonization of the forests of Amazonia by landless settlers from other parts of Brazil. This not only drives out the traditional hunter-gatherers of the rain forest: the wide scale deforestation that accompanies the settlement process also causes environmental degradation so severe that the land becomes exhausted and essentially unusable after only a few years (Hemming 1985). The result of this type of encroachment is that traditional inhabitants are driven into increasingly restricted parts of their traditional domain or into increasingly marginal areas on their periphery, or to areas that can support them in only certain seasons of the year. The net outcome is likely to be that customary safeguards become ineffective and the carrying capacity of the land is soon exceeded. Mean levels of assetholding and incomes are driven down, so that existing low points in the seasonal cycle approach ever closer to critical levels. • Qualitative aspects of nutrition Although the term ' malnutrition' is now commonly used to cover all forms of nutritional inadequacy, nutritionists traditionally drew a distinction between its quantitative and qualitative aspects. Where the amount of food eaten is insufficient to maintain body weight at current activity levels and there is a consequently negative energy balance, the individual concerned is described as undernourished. Malnourished individuals, on the other hand, may be getting enough calories, but their diets are inadequate in terms of one or more of the nutrients essential for bodily maintenance and growth.14 There is, as might be expected, considerable blurring of the dividing line between these two forms of nutritional inadequacy, as in the case of protein—energy

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SEASONALITY AND THE DIS A D V ANT AGED

malnutrition mentioned earlier. The distinction is also sometimes difficult to make in practice, because diets which are energy deficient are generally also deficient in one or more of the nutrients required for maintenance and growth, so that the symptoms of the two conditions are commonly seen together.15 While insufficient intake of food energy, or calories, is now generally regarded as the dominant nutritional problem in developing countries, qualitative aspects of nutrition are unusually important to a discussion of the poverty-seasonality problem. First, they are of particular importance to many of the disadvantaged members of society. Numerically the most important among these are children, followed by pregnant and lactating mothers, all of whom have unusually high requirements for particular nutrients. In addition some minority groups — for example those who subsist mainly on root crops like cassava, yams and plantains — may have sufficient energy intake, but be severely malnourished, especially in certain seasons of the year, because of the low nutritional value of their diet. Second, some of the wastage associated with seasonal diarrhoeal disease affects some nutrients more than others. Finally, the majority of studies of the seasonal aspects of nutritional stress concentrate on its quantitative aspects, so that the qualitative dimension of the issue is in serious danger of being underestimated.16 This last point is especially important, because the seasonality problems relating to quality of diet are rather different from those of its energy aspects. Hunter-gatherers like the %u/oasi may be undernourished at certain times of year without being malnourished (since their diet is very varied). The same may be true of pastoralists, many of whose diets tends to be from animal sources. (The reasons why this is significant are explained below.) The vast majority of the disadvantaged, however, are members of poor farmers' or agricultural labourers' families. The poorer a family, or the more disadvantaged a person is within a family, the greater will be the pressure to grow, buy or accept as wage goods the cheapest food (or most easily grown food — which is usually the same thing) possible. Even where nutritious food is produced, it is sometimes sold, either because of storage problems, or in order to pay for larger quantities of cheaper, high-energy foods, as is reported from Kenya (Odera and Mbugua 1982). This practice has two vitally important implications. First, the diets of such people often contain little, if any, animal produce, since such food tends to be expensive: they are vegetarians, or even vegans, and not by choice, but by necessity. (While vegetarians do not eat flesh, vegans eat no animal

QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF NUTRITION " 75 produce at all.) Second, buying or growing the cheapest food almost inevitably means eating a very restricted diet, since it is most unlikely that there will be a range of different such foods all at the same, cheapest, price. While a vegan diet can be a perfectly healthy one (perhaps the healthiest of all), it must be an exceptionally varied one if it is to contain all the essential nutrients in adequate quantities.17 The word essential has a special meaning in a nutritional context. Humans, like other species, can synthesize many of the nutrients they require from the raw materials in their diet. Those nutrients we require but cannot synthesize are described as essential - because they are, therefore, essential components of diet. Most of the fat in our bodies is synthesized from carbohydrate, but there are also three essential fatty acids. There are many essential minerals (although most of them are required in trace quantities only). Protein is a highly variable substance composed of a complex structure of amino acids, many of which are essential for humans. The essential components of diet are not the same for all species. In particular, although the vegetable kingdom contains all of the essential nutrients for humans, every vegetable food is deficient in more than one of them. This is why vegans must eat a wide range of different foods to obtain all of the nutrients they need.18 Food of animal origin, in contrast, supplies a much higher proportion of our needs, largely because humans are members of the same biological kingdom as animals, and are therefore biologically much closer to them than to members of other kingdoms. This is particularly true of protein, as will be explained later. The pressures on the disadvantaged to eat a restricted diet are intensified in the hungry season. Food generally becomes more difficult to get at that time of year. Fresh vegetables, being perishable, are especially difficult to come by. In addition, since for farm-dependent people the hungry season is usually also the wet season, it is also the time of most severe transportation problems in remote areas, so that supplies from outside are expensive (if they are available at all). Problems connected with a restricted, as distinct from an inadequate, diet can result from intra-family discrimination as well as from ultra poverty, for the pressures that direct a disproportionate amount of food to certain family members may also divert the choicest foods in the same direction. Whether or not purely seasonal (as distinct from overall) shortages of essential nutrients are important depends upon the length of time for which they can be stored, either in the form of foodstuffs or in the body itself. Some foods, especially fruits and vegetables — and most especially

76

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

in the hot humid conditions of the rainy season - will rot in store. Even where this is not a serious problem, important losses in nutritional value can be caused by processing or storage. For example, fresh peas contain up to 30 mg per 100 g of ascorbic acid (vitamin C), while dried peas contain none (MAFF 1976, Ch. 8). The 'half life' of nutrients stored in the body varies greatly from one to another. Excess intake of the fat-soluble vitamins A and D, for example, can be stored in the liver for more than a year, so that seasonality of intake in itself presents no problems. At the other extreme some nutrients cannot be stored in the body at all, so that if intake falls below requirements for even a relatively short period of time problems can arise. Particularly important among these last are protein and the amino acids of which it is comprised. Longhurst and Payne have argued that 'for all those nutrients, the lack of which most commonly gives rise to problems and of which the supply is affected by seasonality, the body has evolved very effective storage mechanisms which are able to smooth out seasonal peaks and troughs' (1981, p. 47). They quote the examples of vitamins C and A, thiamine, niacin, folic acid, iron, calcium and energy, all of which have half-lives which are adequate for this purpose. They therefore conclude that ' many months of deficient diets are needed to produce symptoms of malnutrition in previously well-nourished subjects' {idem). The authors also note the role of 'adaptability', meaning that 'the requirement in some way changes in response to a change in intake without necessarily incurring an important loss of function' (idem). Such a response may range from the 'more or less immediate' to one whose time scale is evolutionary. Without questioning the nutritional facts upon which the above arguments are based, it is possible to query the implicit view of seasonality - at least from the viewpoint of the ultra-poor and many who suffer from intra-family discrimination. First, and most obviously, we are not dealing here with 'previously well-nourished subjects'. Second, the argument seems to imply that seasonal nutritional problems are limited to the 'hungry season', i.e. those few months of undernutrition before the harvest during which energy deficits are common and widespread. However, this is no more than the worst part of a much longer season of malnutrition which is likely to have begun earlier - and in areas of a single harvest quite probably many months earlier - and which may well last some time beyond the hungry season. The reasons are twofold. First, the symptoms of hunger are obvious, debilitating and immediately unpleasant, whereas those of, say, vitamin deficiency

QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF NUTRITION 77 take longer to manifest themselves and are not so obviously related to food. Second, energy-rich foods tend to be relatively cheap. Hence there is every possibility that disadvantaged people will continue to meet their energy needs during a ' pre-hungry season', long after their ability to bear the cost of a more varied and more nutritious diet has evaporated. Moreover, although the hungry season itself may end with the onset of the harvest, the increase in the level of food intake need not necessarily be accompanied by an increase in its variety, especially if the harvest in question is simply that of the starchy staple.19 Thus, particularly in areas which can produce only one harvest a year, the season of malnutrition, as distinct from that of undernutrition, may last for many months, during which period depletion of those nutrients which cannot be stored for more than a few months can indeed lead to malnutrition. An example is provided by the B-vitamins. Diets containing too little of these ' can lead to multiple deficiency diseases within a few months' (MAFF 1976, p. 43; emphasis in the original). Drasar et al. have drawn attention to the incidence and effect of seasonal deficiency of folate (folic acid), one of the B-vitamins, on a particular disadvantaged group, weanling children, in northern Nigeria. Here ' the dietary folate intake is reduced as fresh vegetables become scarce at the beginning of the rains, and with the sudden withdrawal of breast milk, the folate supply may become critically low' (1981, p. no). Even in the case of minerals which the body can store for quite long periods, and even where overall intake is adequate, there can still be a connection between seasonality and inadequate bodily reserves. The linkage is that between seasonality of nutrition and that of disease. Where there is severe hungry season diarrhoea (as for example with cholera), there is also sudden and severe loss of potassium salts and bicarbonate which, together with dehydration, can be rapidly lethal (Wingate 1976). Even without dehydration, the loss of minerals can cause serious deficiency symptoms. One of the outcomes of evolutionary forces is undoubtedly to cause species to adapt to factors such as seasonality of nutrient supply in particular environments. The unusually heavy fat deposits of the Kalahari San noted earlier could well be a case in point. However, evolution is much too slow a process to permit adequate adaptation to the rapid environmental changes that are taking place in much of the developing world today. Foremost among these forces is sustained population pressure resulting in a steady contraction of average holding size, the increased use of marginal lands, and (especially in

78

SEASONALITY AND THE DISADVANTAGED

conjunction with labour-displacing technological change) rising unemployment (Chapter 8). The resultant process of marginalization may well have the effect of extending the season of malnutrition, even if not the hungry season proper. Possibly the most serious qualitative problems which arise from seasonality of nutrition are those connected with protein. Protein, when it is not being ' squandered' as a source of energy, is used in the structure of the tissues, and comprises about 12 per cent of body weight of a well-nourished individual (fat is around 15 per cent and water 70 per cent). A protein is composed of a chain of amino acids, and proteins differ from one another, among other things, as to the proportions in which these are combined. There are 22 amino acids, and with humans eight are essential for adults and nine for infants. The digestive system breaks down dietary proteins into their component amino acids and reconstitutes them into specifically human proteins. If the essential amino acids so obtained are not available in the required proportions, the one whose supply is most limited will determine the amount of human proteins that can be constructed. The other, unused, amino acids cannot be stored at all and are simply excreted. Foods can be classified according to the amount of essential amino acids they provide (this is their biological value). Those which provide all of those needed by the organism in question, in the correct proportions, are complete proteins. Foods of animal origin are very close to complete proteins for human beings. Vegetable proteins, on the other hand, are of comparatively low biological value for humans, because the composition of their protein is very different from ours. Wheat, for example, is very low in the essential amino acid lysine. This deficiency can be made up by eating a great deal of wheat products, but more realistically by eating a mixture of different vegetable foods at the same time. Beans, for example, are higher in lysine, but lower in methionine (another essential amino acid) than wheat. This means that a meal made from wholemeal wheat flour and beans will have a higher biological value than one made from the same quantity of either ingredient by itself. The implication is that the more restricted a vegan diet is - even over a short period of time - the lower will be the biological value of the protein it provides. Hence seasonality in itself will result in protein wastage if one of its manifestations is seasonal switching between foods which are individually of low biological value even if they are complementary with respect to their amino acid composition. Protein deficiency, although often associated with undernutrition, is

QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF NUTRITION 79 rather different in its effects. The body has no store of protein equivalent to the energy storage in fat, so that it must adjust to protein deficiency in rather drastic ways. One is that bodily tissues begin to waste, with a resulting release of amino acids. The body can restructure these into protein, which it then uses to maintain tissues and cells which are even more essential than those that became wasted. Second, as the tissues waste (as they will do in any case if calorie deficiency is also present), the body shrinks and protein requirements correspondingly fall (in absolute terms). Third, bodily cells, particularly those of the liver, adapt so as to use the limited available supply of protein more for essential bodily maintenance than for energy. Two months is regarded as the critical period for a previously well-nourished individual. Beyond that protein losses from the body are likely to become critical. While disadvantaged people, at least in a non-famine year, are unlikely to suffer from such a prolonged period of complete deprivation, they are quite likely to commence the hungry period with their bodily sources of protein already depleted, and are likely to suffer from a negative protein balance over a period that may be considerably longer than two months. While protein deficiency is not nowadays considered to be a very widespread problem among adults even in the Third World, children, particularly children of ultra-poor families, run the very considerable risk of reaching a critical condition because of negative protein balance in the hungry season. First, while (non-pregnant) adults need protein for maintenance purposes only, children need it for growth also, and therefore require a greater proportion in their diets. Second, during the agricultural busy season when, as shown earlier, weaning tends to be abrupt, child care standards are apt to decline and infants tend to be weaned on poor quality foods — primarily cereal paps of low biological value. Hence there is a sometimes serious danger of a child reared under these circumstances succumbing to PEM during this period. This condition often results in death. Even where it does not, there is evidence that a period of serious protein deficiency in childhood may cause permanent injury and later manifest itself in such forms as cirrhosis of the liver and even permanent brain damage (Brock et al. 1985).

Seasonality and the environment

C H A P T E R 2 DESCRIBED the basic physical sources of seasonality and the way in which these manifest themselves in broad climatic patterns. Were these the only sources of seasonality in agricultural production conditions, it would indeed be difficult to design counter-seasonal production strategies on a less than continental scale. Fortunately, the impact of climate is strongly influenced by the environment in which it takes effect, so that seasonal diversity in production possibilities may exist within a relatively small area. Unfortunately, not all of the diversity created by environment is favourable, for pests and diseases of crops, livestock and people are also environmental variables. Some understanding of such relationships is necessary, as a first step towards understanding the technical basis for meeting the challenge of seasonality. (Social factors are considered in later chapters.) Environment can modify climate, and so help determine production conditions in agriculture, in at least four different ways. First it can modify climate itself, as in the case of orographic lifting and the rain shadow effect discussed in Chapter 2. Second, such features of the physical environment as rocks, soils and landforms, can modify the biological effects of a given climatic regime — as can features of the biological environment itself, such as trees. Third, different species indeed different varieties of the same species - which themselves form part of the biological environment, react differently to any given combination of climate and physical environment, so that their combined impact on agriculture may in turn be modified. Finally, the environment, in the shape of its topography, may ease or create difficulties regarding the movement of produce, people and other resources between areas which climate and environment have made

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SEASONALITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

8l

complementary with respect to the timing of agricultural operations and production. Obvious examples are given by a navigable river which can facilitate such movement, and rugged, mountainous terrain which inhibits it. This last point will be taken up in detail in Chapter 7, but for the moment a crucial three-way relationship should be noted between climate, environment and ease of movement. Environmental modification of climate is important to the extent that it makes for diversity in agro-climatic conditions, and thus facilitates the seasonal staggering of production and resource use within an accessible geographical compass. The less developed a country, the less developed will its transportation system tend to be, and therefore the more crucial will the adjective accessible become in this context. Poor countries would find it very difficult to take advantage of the large-scale diversity created by latitudinal differences or seasonal complementarities between the tropics and the higher latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. Under such circumstances diversity must normally be sought at a much more localized level. Environmental factors are commonly divided into macro and micro levels. The concept of a macro-environment is not at all clear-cut, and a purely functional definition will be adopted here. It is taken to mean the environment of an area within which nomadic pastoralists or other migratory people (including hunter-gatherers, and seasonal migrant labourers) commonly circulate in the course of a year. This may not at first sight seem a very realistic definition of a macro-environment, but in fact such circulation is a reflection of geographical variation in the timing of production, and therefore income-earning, opportunities. In agriculture, pastoralism, hunting and the gathering of wild produce, this reflects the joint effects of seasonal climatic variation and the environment in which it occurs. In seeking a parallel definition of the much more restricted environments in which settled agriculturalists earn their living, the concept of a micro-environment is not quite so useful. Microenvironments tend to be very small-scale. For example, moisture and temperature conditions may be significantly different under a tree or in the lee of a rock than out in the open, and these locations would therefore constitute distinct micro-environments. Diversity even on such a small scale can be important in agriculture — and important components of a counter-seasonal strategy - but farmers can tap a much wider range of environmental conditions than this. The intermediate concept of a meso-environment will therefore be adopted

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here. Again a purely functional definition is used, namely all of the land area that is cultivated, grazed or otherwise exploited by a single agricultural settlement. • Environmental variables In considering specific environmental variables it is not always easy to classify them as purely macro or meso, since the same component of the environment can, in different circumstances, interact with climate on either level. Soil is an important example. Soil type can change very markedly over a fairly small area, and thus form part of the mesoenvironment as defined above. However, it is also possible for broad tracts of the same soil type to cover a large expanse of territory, in which case it becomes a macro-environmental variable. The discussion begins, though, with a variable that is unequivocally macroenvironmental. CONTINENTALITY

Ambient temperature at a given location is influenced by neighbouring or surrounding land masses and water bodies. Other things being equal, a maritime location has a more equable seasonal temperature distribution than one significantly further inland (i.e. a continental one). This is because land is a poor conductor of heat, so that in hot weather the surface of the ground may warm up quickly, while the subsoil remains cool. Because of this, land surfaces cool rapidly when insolation drops. Not only does water conduct heat more efficiently than land, but heat distribution and penetration are further improved by the 'stirring' effect of tides and currents. Thus water heats up more slowly, but retains its heat longer, than land. This characteristic of large water bodies influences the seasonal temperature variation of neighbouring land masses, which is why maritime locations are generally warmer in winter and cooler in summer than continental ones at the same latitude. The effect of continentality on seasonal temperature regimes can be quite pronounced. Figure 4.1 shows quite clearly that, although this effect tends to be more marked in the middle latitudes than in the tropics, it is also present in the latter. In fact, such is the effect of continentality that in absolute terms the temperature difference between the hottest and coldest months is actually greater in a tropical but continental location like Tamanrasset than it is in a temperate but

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES 28 Havana 24 20

a a

16--

8.

12

Tamanrasset vv(22° 47' N)

2 2

55' N) s

\

Moscow \(55° 50' N) \

-8\

Jan

Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Mar May Jul Sep Nov Figure 4.1. Effect of continentality on annual temperature regime. = continental locations; - • • — • • = maritime locations. (Source: drawn from data in Lamb 1972.)

maritime location like Edinburgh (respectively 16.7 and 11.2 Celsius degrees). Continentality affects agriculture partly through its effect on seasonal temperature levels and partly through its impact on annual temperature gradients. The former will obviously have a bearing on which crops can be grown at a given season of the year and on their rate of development. The latter will affect the timing of agricultural operations, which become more critical the greater the spring and autumn temperature gradients. Obviously the greater the inter-seasonal temperature difference the greater will these gradients be. ALTITUDE

The effect of altitude variation on rainfall patterns was discussed in Chapter 2. Altitude variation also affects seasonal temperature regimes since, other things being equal, temperature falls {lapses) as altitude

84

S E A S O N A L I T Y AND T H E E N V I R O N M E N T

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 4.2. Effect of altitude on seasonal temperature variation (Nepal). (Source: drawn from data in HMG/N 1986.)

increases. The average environmental lapse rate for the Earth is 0.6 to 0.7 Celsius degrees for every 100 m increase in elevation. The effect of altitude on seasonal temperature regime is illustrated in Figure 4.2. (Although Nepal encompasses one of the greatest altitude ranges in the world, the range illustrated here is not by any means exceptional for mountainous areas: it is less than a third of the overall altitude range of Nepal.) Topographically the country comprises three approximately equal and parallel altitude bands with a roughly west-northwest to eastsoutheast orientation. One band is the terai, a. strip of lowland plain running the length of the border with India; NNE of this lie long ranges of hills, beyond which is the third band, the Himalayas. As a result of this orientation, large altitude differences can occur at the same latitude and within a relatively short horizontal distance. Figure 4.2 takes an east-west transect across the country through three climatological stations on the same latitude. Dumkauli, the western-

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES

85

most, is in the terai at an altitude of 154 m (500 ft) above mean sea level; Kathmandu station, 117 km (73 miles) due east, lies in the hills at an elevation of 1336 m (4380 ft); Chialsa, 128 km (79 miles) east of the capital, lies at 2770 m (9090 ft). The three stations are not significantly different with respect to continentality, while other temperature-determining variables are controlled. Thus the observed differences in seasonal temperature regime can be ascribed to altitude differences. Although marked variation in altitude is commonly associated with mountainous areas, it is also found within the Earth's larger valleys. A particularly important example is the Great Rift Valley, which traverses the Middle East and eastern Africa, running 6000 km (3720 miles) from the Dead Sea to Mozambique. In the part of the Valley that lies in central Ethiopia, for instance, fields only a few kilometres apart in horizontal distance can cover an altitude range as great as 15 00 m (4900 ft). Altitude, through its effect on temperature, is a major determinant of natural vegetation, crops and cropping patterns, and the seasonal peaks and troughs in both production and resource use at different elevations are correspondingly different. As noted in the previous chapter, seasonal differentiation in natural vegetation forms the basis for transhumance, and this system is very common in the mountainous regions of the developing world. Seasonal temperature differences attributable to altitude affect crops and cropping patterns in two main ways. The first is the type of crop that can be grown. Returning to the example of Nepal, Panday (1987) reports that, generally speaking, rice is grown at elevations up to 2000 m (6600 ft), although only in summer at the upper end of this range. Maize and millet grow between 1500 and 2400 m (4900—7900 ft), potatoes and barley above 2400 m, while buckwheat is found up to 4000 m (13000 ft). Similar variation is found in large valleys. In the Ethiopian section of the Rift Valley mentioned earlier, barley is grown at the highest altitudes, wheat at intermediate levels and maize on the Valley bottom. The second way in which temperature variation affects plants is through their rate of development. A precise illustration of this relationship is given by the results of a series of agronomic experiments in the subtropical Hawaian islands, where the same variety of barley (early bankutt) was grown under controlled conditions at three very different elevations (Figure 4.3). The temperature difference between the sea level and 1000 metre sites, and between the 1000 and 2000 metre

86

SEASONALITY AND THE 140

ENVIRONMENT

Site lc (2042 m)

120 100

1 80

Site lb (1067 m) -Site la (18 m)

I 60 40 20

0' 5 10 15 20 25 Mean temperature of developmental stage (°C) Figure 4.}. Maturing of a crop of barley (Bankuti, early) at different elevations, A = ripe seed; • = heading; • = flower initiation. (Source: Aitken 1974, Fig. 6.3.)

sites is the same: around five Celsius degrees. This delays maturity by six days in the former case, and by as much as 54 days in the latter, so that the response is obviously non-linear. Such differences are by no means exceptional. In Peru, potato matures in only three months at sea level, but takes eight months at 3280 m (10800 ft) (CIP 1988), while in Nepal maize takes almost three times as long to develop at 2400 m (7900 ft) as it does at 1500 m (4900 ft) (Panday 1987). Altitude-induced differences in cropping pattern and rate of crop development mean that the timing of operations like ploughing and harvesting can be staggered considerably between different locations. At the meso-environmental level this permits farmers to stagger their workloads and production patterns by owning or renting fields at different altitudes. At the macro level it forms a basis, not only for transhumance, but also for seasonal migration by casual farm labourers among the different altitude zones.

SOIL AND SOIL MOISTURE

Both moisture and nutrients reach a plant through its roots, so that soil is a particularly important feature of the crop environment. Moreover, as will be shown later, soil conditions play an especially important role

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES 87 in determining seasonality of agricultural potential in the tropics and subtropics. The topic will therefore be treated here in some detail. Both the chemical and physical properties of a soil will help determine which crops can be grown and in which season(s). Its chemical properties are major determinants of a soil's fertility. This tends popularly to be thought of only in connection with crop yields, but it can also help determine cropping pattern, and with it the potential for staggered production. Maize, for instance, requires a fertile soil, while crops like rice and cassava can be grown on soils which are nutrient-depleted. The fertility of some soils even varies seasonally. Harwood (1979) provides two important examples from the humid tropics. The first is seasonally flooded lowlands. Here the flooding creates a chemical environment in which phosphorus is readily available for plants such as rice. However, when the same soil dries out the supply of available phosphorus declines. The second example is found in monsoonal areas when plant residues are left on the surface of the field during the dry season. Here the onset of the monsoon rains sees a marked increase in the availability of nutrients in the upper soil layers as a result of the decay of plant refuse. This fertility then decreases in the course of the wet season as nutrients are either taken up by plants or leached out, to reach a minimum in the dry season. Another important chemical determinant of cropping pattern is soil acidity.1 Some crops are acid-tolerant, while others either cannot grow, or else suffer injury when grown, on acid soils. Taking foodgrains as an example: rice, oats, rye and buckwheat are acid tolerant, while wheat, barley and sorghum are not (Kamath 1972). Soils with too low a pH value to support even acid-tolerant crops can often still provide grazing for livestock. Economically the most important tract of such soils is found in the vast savanna areas of tropical Latin America. Possibly as much as half of this region's soils are too acid for cultivation, yet they still support large herds (IDRC 1986, p. 19). Acid and non-acid soils are found in close proximity to each other in some parts of the world. One such place is the hilly region of South Asia bordering on the Himalayas. Here most soils are acid, but occasionally a tract of calcareous soils occurs, having been deposited by a burst of flooding from the mountains. These soils contain calcium carbonate (lime), which neutralizes acidity, and calcareous soils will support many species that cannot grow on acid soils. Salinity is another important chemical property of soils in certain areas. It occurs in such places as depressions, floodplains, coastal areas and the fringes of lakes, and is caused by salt intrusion into ground

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SEASONALITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

water. During dry periods these salts can be brought up to the surface by capillary action. Even moderate soil salinity can have an appreciably negative effect on the crop environment. Salinity can also affect surface water in the dry season, particularly river water. During the wet season there is usually sufficient fresh water coming downstream toflushout the salt, but in the dry season salt water intrudes up the river system from the sea, so as to make irrigation counter-productive in many lower riparian areas. The physical properties of a soil are particularly important determinants of a plant's access to moisture. Where rainfall is regular, or where irrigation is provided, even poor soils are capable of yielding well, provided they receive sufficient fertilization. However, given the seasonal nature of tropical rainfall, and the fact that most tropical agriculture is non-irrigated, soil quality is more often than not the crucial determinant of whether a crop can be grown in the dry season, and if so which crop. A good soil will counter seasonality of rainfall, draining off excess water in the wet season and releasing stored moisture to plants in the dry. Unfortunately, most tropical soils are not 'good' in this sense, so that dry season drought constitutes the major limitation on agriculture in most tropical environments. Not only does it limit the production season, it also greatly increases seasonality of workloads, for in such areas the onset of the rains heralds a burst of intensive agricultural activity as farmers try to get a crop on the land as soon as the soil becomes workable and its moisture content has risen sufficiently to permit germination. The depth and structure of a soil are crucial in determining its quality from the viewpoint of moisture retention. Structure here refers to the aggregation of the particles of different size a soil contains, their composition and the distribution of pores and cracks between them. This determines the proportion of water a soil can contain and the degree of access that plants have to it. The better aerated a soil, the better will roots be able to ' breathe', grow and ramify, thus improving both the plant's anchorage and its access to moisture and nutrients. Pores and cracks also permit the growth of bacteria which release nitrogen into the soil, thus enhancing its fertility. The soil acts as a reservoir of moisture as well as of nutrients: a deep soil with good structure will hold and release enough moisture to support a crop through the dry season. Shallow soils, which are, unfortunately, very common in the tropics, are generally unproductive. Providing only a limited reservoir, they waterlog easily and dry out quickly. The proportion of water in a soil at any given time depends on a

ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES

89

number of environmental factors other than rainfall regime. Slope is an important negative factor: for a given degree of vegetative cover, the greater the slope the greater will be the degree of run-off at the expense of percolation. Soil cracks and pores have the opposite effect, since they facilitate water penetration. The materials constituting a soil, and the mix of different crumb or particle sizes within it, determine its moisture holding capacity. Clays, being very fine soils, present a large surface area per unit volume and can therefore adsorb (i.e. hold on the suface of its particles) a relatively large amount of moisture. However, many clays also have high tension and therefore hold the water strongly, resisting its absorption by plant roots. Coarse sandy soils, on the other hand, offer a much smaller total surface area, and hence adsorb comparatively little moisture. They also tend to drain very easily, so that their total moisture capacity is low. A well-structured soil contains a mix of materials, but especially materials of intermediate particle size, namely fine sands and silts. For most crops they should also contain a significant proportion of humus. Humus consists of plant and animal residues which have reached an advanced and relatively stable stage of decomposition. Significant amounts of it in the soil can play a vital role in counteracting the illeffects of highly seasonal rainfall. Its presence improves both the porosity of the soil and its moisture holding properties, for organic matter assimilates moisture — i.e. absorbs it — instead of merely adsorbing it. Uncultivated tropical soils, especially forest soils of the humid and wet-and-dry regions, are rich in organic matter. However, once the natural vegetation is cleared for agriculture, the humus content rapidly declines. This happens partly in the process of clearing (especially if the familiar ' slash-and-burn' techniques are employed) and continues with cultivation. The process of deterioration is much more rapid in the tropics than in temperate climates: High temperatures, long periods of drought, intense ultraviolet radiation and particularly high kinetic energy rainfall, which destroys the granular structure of the soil, decrease the activity of soil microorganisms so that there is little possibility in open land for the stable organic content of the soil to build up; indeed there is a tendency for it to be destroyed (Ormerod 1978). This situation is worsened by the removal of crops from the land and the consequent exposure of bare soil to erosion. Such removal also causes loss of potential humus, as do such practices as burning off stubbles and using animal manure and crop residues as fuel instead of returning them to the land.

90

SEASONALITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT 500-r

Monthly average - Lagos

_ Sokoto ~ London

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 300-•

Monthly average - London " Lagos

- Sokoto

Figure 4.4. Average monthly rainfall and average rainfall retained in the soil under three rainfall regimes. = Lagos, Nigeria; — . - . • • = Sokoto, Nigeria; = London, England. (Source: drawn from data in Ormerod 1978.)

The relationship between rainfall and rainfall retained in the soil is illustrated in Figure 4.4, which compares two tropical locations with a temperate one. Lagos, on the Nigerian coast, has a seasonal rainfall regime fairly typical of the bimodal areas near the Equator, as well as the heavy annual rainfall generally associated with such a location. In terms of Walsh's scheme of classification outlined earlier, it has rainfall seasonality type D3*, (i.e. wet-and-dry/seasonal with two dry seasons). Sokoto, which is also in Nigeria, but 750 km north of Lagos, is on the edge of the Sahel. This is in the one-wet-one-dry zone, with a very

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91

marked seasonality of rainfall (type E5, i.e. dry-seasonally wet/with most rain in 3 months or less). One of the most important points to emerge from this diagram is the fact that, although annual rainfall is much lower in London than in either tropical location, the volume of rainfall retained in the soil is actually higher. In Sokoto, the level of retained moisture is lower than in London in every month of the year, even in the period July to September, when Sokoto's rainfall is more than three times that of London. Lagos experiences its highest rainfall retention at 300 mm, in months when actual rainfall is between 205 and 45 7 mm. London achieves its highest retention at 290 mm when rainfall is only 41 mm. ASPECT

The direction in which sloping land faces (its aspect) can be an important environmental factor. Sunward slopes (i.e. those facing southwards in the northern, and northwards in the southern, hemisphere) receive a greater intensity of insolation than flat land at the same latitude. Similarly, slopes facing in the opposite direction receive less. These factors play a major role in determining which crops can be grown on particular fields in hilly and mountainous regions. Panday notes that in Nepal the timing of crop operations is critically affected by aspect: In the south-facing sunny slope, pahara (adret) crops ripen earlier. In the shady aspect sinjala (ubac) of the north, crops ripen late due to low intensity of insolation (1987, p. 248). The importance of this factor for Nepali farmers is well illustrated by the fact that, like their alpine counterparts, they have special names for the two main aspects in their country. However, if sunward slopes are the better suited to agriculture where cold conditions are a problem, slopes facing in the opposite direction are the better where there is a dry season, for they tend to be the damper of the two. RELIEF

In geography, relief refers to differences in elevation. The differences may be large scale, as is often the case with altitude variation, but they can also be quite small, as with floodplains. In flat country where rainfall is highly seasonal, rivers tend to flood easily and drain only slowly, thus setting restrictive time limits on the start of cultivation and

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the completion of the harvest. Probably the best known example of agriculture under these conditions is that found in the Nile valley. So important is this cycle that the ancient Egyptian names for the seasons were Inundation, Sowing and Reaping, and the year began in mid-July, with the onset of Inundation. For thousands of years, Egyptian and Sudanese farmers have sown their crops into the rich alluvial deposits left by the river as it recedes after the summer floods. In areas such as these it is the relief of the river bed, its banks and floodplains that largely determine seasonality. Successive strips of land become exposed as the water level shrinks, so that, in contrast to areas where the onset of the rains signals the start of cultivation, not all of the land can be cultivated at once, and land preparation, sowing and transplanting are naturally staggered over a relatively lengthy period. Moreover, unless the river tends to rise very rapidly with the start of inundation, harvesting operations can be similarly staggered, as fields are flooded at successively higher levels. Of course this means that the lower the field the shorter the growing season, so that short duration crops and varieties will be needed for these locations (see below). Even away from riverine areas, relatively small differences in elevation can make for large differences in crop suitability — especially where the land has been levelled or terraced. The lower land may become waterlogged and therefore be suitable for only a very limited range of crops - or none at all - in the rainy season, while the higher land is free from this hazard. In the dry season, however, when the higher plots may be too dry for cultivation, soils on the lower plots often retain sufficient moisture to support a crop. In addition, the lower plots, especially those on valley bottoms, may be close enough to surface or groundwater to permit irrigation. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS

The macro-environmental aspects of atmospheric conditions were dealt with in Chapter 2, but such conditions can also vary at the intermediate level. Humidity (and to a lesser extent carbon dioxide concentration) are important here. Humid conditions conserve moisture, whereas the non-humid conditions lead to relatively high levels of moisture loss through evaporation from the land and transpiration from crops (evapotranspiration). Humid conditions are created by vegetative cover, and are found, for example, within dense stands of trees. Shade-loving plants grown in the understory of such a stand will greatly benefit from this type of environment in the dry season. Even in openfields,the

TRANSITION ZONES 93 denser the crop cover in a field the more humid will the atmosphere within the crop tend to be and hence the greater the degree of dry season moisture conservation. + Transition zones Differences associated with macro-environmental variables do not always shade gradually into each other. They sometimes change fairly abruptly, so that a zone of transition can be identified between them. In some cases the transition can be so abrupt that it amounts in effect to a demarkation line. Where a transition zone occurs within the area cultivated by a single village or closely knit group of villages, a very important source of diversity and potential seasonal complementarity can be added to those attributable to meso-environmental differences. There may, for example, be clear dividing lines between soil types, so that a soil that is suitable for dry season cropping may border one that can only support a crop in the rainy season. Such factors as seasonal wind reversal can create adjoining areas with very different rainfall regimes. This was illustrated earlier in the case of sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 2.5). Another example is Sri Lanka, where people recognize quite distinct 'wet' and 'dry' zones with very different cropping patterns and cropping seasons in each. The effect of this on seasonality of production and employment is described in Chapter 6. An organism's reaction to variables such as moisture availability and temperature regime is neither continuous nor smooth. In the case of temperature, generally speaking a crop will go through its various development stages more slowly as temperature falls, and more quickly as it rises. However, there are often critical maximum and minimum temperatures outside of whose range a development stage like germination, flowering or setting seed simply will not occur.2 The same is true of the moisture regime. For example, a specific wilt point is recognized on the scale of moisture availability for various plants. The existence of such critical values means that, although for example temperature, and with it agricultural conditions, may change only slowly with increasing distance, once the critical level has been reached, a transition zone is created, on either side of which production conditions may differ quite sharply. This is a point which can be illustrated by returning to the Great Rift Valley. Fifteen hundred kilometres to the southwest of Ethiopia, in the Great Lakes Highlands area of the Valley (an area which includes parts of Zaire, Rwanda and Burundi) the following conditions have been documented.

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The most important differentiating factor for Great Lakes Highlands farming systems is altitude. The altitude of about 1800 m is an important transition point. Beer bananas grow very well below it; either not very well or not at all above it. Potatoes grow above it, but not below, while manioc does less well as altitudes climb above 1800 m. Sorghum fades out above 1800 m, while finger millet and wheat fade in; maize competes with sorghum for dominance among grains below 1800 m, but is clearly dominant above that altitude (although it takes quite a while for maize to mature at high altitudes). Beans do less well at altitudes over 1800 m and tend to be replaced by peas. Above 1800 m coffee struggles and gives poor results, but tea and pyrethrin are well adapted (Jones and Egli 1984, p. 15).

It is unusual for so many different species to be affected by the same transition zone (or 'point', as it is called here), but if even one crop is so affected, this can make an important contribution to diversity within a meso-environment. When macro-environmental variables interact and reinforce each other, the rate of change in variables like temperature will be accelerated, and any associated transition zones will tend to become increasingly narrow. For example, in the northern hemisphere's autumn as one moves north from a southern coastline, increasing latitude and increasing continentality will combine to push temperature downwards. Moreover, if, as so often happens, altitude increases with distance from the coast, this will steepen the temperature gradient still further. • Environment, species and variety Just as the environment can modify the seasonal effects of climate, so too can seasonal climatic regime modify the (biological) environment. It does so by providing a crucial stimulus for environmental adaptation through natural selection. In the present section the discussion will concentrate on crops. Environmental adaptation among livestock is discussed later in the chapter. CROPS

For plants, the growing season is the most important aspect of climate. This is 'the number of consecutive months during the year that are available for active plant growth because of sufficient water and favourable temperature' (Aitken 1974, pp. 42—3). The definition of ' favourable' temperature depends upon species: plants are conveniently

ENVIRONMENT, SPECIES AND VARIETY 95 ranked as temperate or tropical types, according to the lower boundary for active growth. This is about 5 °C for temperate plants and about 15 °C for tropical ones. The optimum temperature is likewise higher for tropical plants, as is the upper boundary for active growth. In addition this group is much more frost-sensitive (ibid, p. 44). The optimum temperature range varies, of course, between different species in both tropical and temperate groups, as do related factors such as frost resistance. Similarly, different species vary in their tolerance of drought, shade, disease, humidity and other environmental conditions. The growing period, that is the length of time required to produce a useable crop, varies enormously from one species to another. A crop of beansprouts can be grown in a few days, while many tree crops cannot be harvested until decades after seed germination. Biology recognizes four types of plant with respect to growing period. Ephemeral species have very short life cycles and produce several generations in a year. Annual species complete their life cycles within a single year. Biennial species require two years to complete their life cycles, producing mature seed in the second year only. Perennial species persist through the year for more than two years. Perennials are in turn divided into two main groups. Herbaceous perennials have parts above the ground that die away at the end of one growing season to be replaced by fresh growth at the beginning of the next. This distinguishes them from woody perennials like trees. As far as seasonality of agricultural production is concerned, the most important distinction is between annual and perennial species. Both types have a single harvest, but seasonality of input requirements often differ. With perennial crops there is generally a single peak labour season, at harvest, but with annuals the need for cultivation and sowing, planting or transplanting typically imposes a second peak. Production problems of seasonality will tend to increase the longer a given crop's growing period is in relation to the local growing season. However, even where the growing season is considerably longer than a crop's growing period, the timing of crop production within that season may be restricted if it is sensitive to photoperiod. Photoperiodism is response to the relative length of day and night. There are many such responses, but the best known, and the most important as far as seasonality is concerned, is flowering display. The development of a plant can be divided into two basic stages. The first is the vegetative stage in which the stems and leaves, but not the fruiting and seeding parts, develop. This stage ends with flower initiation (FI). After this the plant enters the reproductive stage, which ends with the production of

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ripe seed. With species like tomato, which are nonsensitive to photoperiod, the timing of FI in a given environment occurs a moreor-less fixed number of days after germination of the seed.3 With photoperiod sensitive species, on the other hand, FI is triggered when photoperiod reaches a certain critical level. With short-day plants like soya bean, day length must fall below the critical level, so that FI occurs after the summer solstice and the species flowers in the autumn. In longday species like lettuce, photoperiod must exceed the critical level for FI to take place. This occurs after the winter solstice and flowering takes place in the spring. In the natural state sensitivity to photoperiod ensures that ripe seed is produced at a time of year most suited to its subsequent germination. However, when a crop is grown for food, rather than seed, photoperiod sensitivity can greatly reduce the farmer's freedom of choice with respect to timing within the growing season. Environmental and climatic factors would place far more restrictions than they actually do on the geographical areas in which a particular crop could be grown, were it not for differentiation between varieties of the same species with respect to important biological characteristics. One such varietal characteristic, particularly important for the study of seasonality, is maturity type, which refers to inter-varietal differences with respect to growing period in a given environment. The main categories are early-maturing (or simply 'early') and late-maturing (or 'late'). For varieties of a given species there is a generally positive relationship between growing period and biomass production, producing, in effect, a trade-off between a quick crop and a high yield. As was noted in Chapter 1, this relationship is the foundation of some important traditional counter-seasonal strategies. Varieties of the same crop can differ with respect even to such fundamental characteristics as photoperiod sensitivity. An important example is rice, as will be shown in the next chapter. Other intervarietal differences which are important to crop timing, and hence the impact of seasonality, include tolerance of adverse conditions like frost, soil toxicity, waterlogging and drought. WEEDS AND CROP PESTS

Weeds, pests and other enemies of the farmer interact with climate to help form the agricultural environment. Where they cannot be eliminated or neutralized they can play an important part in increasing the seasonality of agricultural production - principally because they increase the need for timeliness. If the land is not tilled sufficiently well

ENVIRONMENT, SPECIES AND VARIETY 97 or sufficiently early after the onset of the rains, weeds can get a head start on the crop and choke it out. With weeds which survive tillage, or which become established after primary cultivation, timeliness is again important, as there is usually an optimum point at which to remove or kill them. The same applies to pests. Weeds are seasonal plants for the same reason that crops are. However, unlike crops, they have had to evolve in a way that enabled them to resist the eradication attempts of generations of farmers. The degree of tenacity and environmental adaptation of local weeds in any agricultural environment is therefore, paradoxically, directly proportional to local standards of husbandry. Natural selection has caused weeds to evolve in various ways. Some have adjusted themselves to the seasonality of the crop(s) with which they compete. Annual weeds of croplands have often adapted their seeding patterns to the crop's growing period and the farmer's cultivation practices. They do this in two main ways. Some mature and shed their seeds before the crop is harvested, so that their seeds lie dormant in the soil awaiting the next growing season. If the land is not prepared on time, these get a head start on the crop, taking advantage of both replenished soil moisture and the nitrogenflush(produced by a sudden upsurge in the activity of nitrogen releasing soil bacteria with the onset of the rainy season). Another type of weed essentially mimics the crop, producing similarlooking seed that matures at the same time, so as to get harvested along with the crop, and thus contaminate the seed stored for the next sowing. Perennial weeds (which are mainly herbaceous perennials) grow from roots that are already established, and unless these are removed by cultivation (which may be difficult) they will usually get a head start on any annual crop sown at the onset of the growing season. The pests (including parasites) that afflict cultivated species are legion, and often highly host-specific (as is attested by such names as the. pepper flea beetle, the mustard saw fly and the. paddy climbing cutworm).

Like weeds, pests have evolved so as to synchronize their own life cycles to the various growth stages of their hosts. Many crop pests have a life cycle of less than a year, so that several generations must be born in a year, with the size of each generation depending on the point in the host's life cycle at which it is born. An example is that important pest of paddy, the stem borer. Borers attack paddy just before ear emergence and cause considerable crop losses by either killing the tillers, preventing ear emergence or causing ears to emerge empty or under size. The life cycle of this particular borer is between 31 and 42 days, so that between eight and twelve generations must be born in a single

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year. Few survive between paddy seasons. Those that do are able to subsist mainly on grasses and 'volunteer' paddy plants. With the arrival of favourable conditions once more, a population explosion of borers occurs, and this population goes on increasing until the next harvest. + Livestock Livestock production is powerfully influenced by variation within both macro- and meso-environments. By definition the former is more important for nomadic pastoralists, the latter for settled agriculturalists. NOMADISM AND THE MACRO-ENVIRONMENT

Nomadism is made necessary by the fact that in some parts of the world year-round conditions for livestock production do not exist in any one place, but do exist in different locations sequentially. (Alternatively, the conditions may exist in one location, but the individuals in question may not have year-round access to the land.) The mobility of livestock makes them ideal vehicles for taking advantage of such environmentalcum-temporal variation. Nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralism are common in arid and semi-arid areas, where seasonal drought is a major problem. During the dry season, pastures may all but disappear and what grazing and browsing material remains is of low quality. Nonavailability of water for the stock is also often a critical factor. In their search for feed and water nomads can cover huge distances in the course of a year's migration {the. pastoral cycle). In many cases this cycle covers only two locations, but in others it may contain a succession of locations within the same macro-environment. The authors of many case studies have reported that livestock production in their study areas peaks during the rains, when grazing is abundant, and falls off precipitously during the dry season (e.g. Wilmsen 1978, Swift 1981, White 1986). The underlying reasons for this type of seasonal variation can be demonstrated and quantified from the findings of a series of intensive experiments conducted in southern Africa in the early 1960s. Several thousand pasture samples from three common ' pasture type regions' were analyzed monthly over a period of two years. The results are shown in Figure 4.5. The pasture types were: 1. High rainfall, open grassland pastures; 2. Lower rainfall, mixed grassland and shrub pastures; and 3. Subtropical thorn tree and grassland pastures.

LIVESTOCK

800

99

n

0 1-

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 4.5. Season, rainfall and crude protein intake from pastures in southern Africa. - • = pasture type -a = pasture type }. -o = pasture type 2; (Sources: Drawn from data in (i) Bisschop and Groenwald 1963 (Table I) and (ii) Lamb 1972 (World Climatic Table).)

When rainfall figures from a meteorological station located in the centre of the three ' pasture type regions' are superimposed on the pasture data, as in Figure 4.5, a very strong positive relationship between rainfall and the quality of grazing (as measured by protein intake) is indicated. Note especially how swiftly protein intake in all three regions responds to the onset of the rainy season in September. The results of the pasture analysis were compared to the hypothetical requirements of a 'growing, non-producing beast of 800 lbs (363 kg) liveweight (which) consumes 14 lbs (6.3 kg) of dry matter per day and requires 500 grams of crude protein and 10 grams of phosphorous' (Bisschop and Groenewald 1963). This constant, taken in relation to crude protein intake, shows the extent of the deficit during the dry half of the year and an almost corresponding surplus during the other half.4 The effect of seasonal variation in the quantity of protein in pasture

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SEASONALITY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

is aggravated by seasonal variation in protein digestibility. Further experiments in the above series showed that, not only did crude protein intake decline in the dry season, but the percentage of it that is digestible fell even more steeply, from around fifty per cent in the rainy season to a mere three per cent in the dry months of June to September (ibid, Table II). In some areas macro-environmental variation ensures that the dry season in one area is the wet season in another, so that flocks and herds can be shuttled between them. Differences between the areas may be attributable to a number of factors. The relationship between altitude and transhumance was mentioned before. Others include seasonal wind reversal and the rain shadow effect. If the areas in question are complementary with respect to the volume and quality of feed and water supply as well as their timing, the nomads will indeed be fortunate. More often one seasonal grazing/watering area is distinctly inferior to the other(s). In many semi-arid environments the only dry season locations that can support stock may be the margins of rivers, streams and lakes. In arid areas the only available location may be an oasis, or a watering hole in an otherwise dried-up river- or lake bed. The trekking of large numbers of animals to such locations results in heavy overgrazing of what little feed there is. The resulting undernutrition, in conjunction with the increase in infection associated with such environments (see below), explains why livestock production so often falls off during the dry season. Livestock products can usefully be divided into four main categories. I. Products which require slaughter: meat, offal, bone, feathers, hides, skins and the like. II. Products from living animals which result from the reproductive cycle. These include milk, eggs, offspring and semen. III. Products from living animals which result from seasonal climatic change. The best examples are sheep's wool and the hair of certain species of goats. IV. Other produce of living animals, such as manure, work and blood (where this is drawn off without slaughter, as with the Masai peoples of East Africa). Although animals can be killed at any time of the year, output per carcase of the more important Type I products will be seasonal when there is seasonal variation in the animals' condition. This may affect the quantity produced from a given animal (as with meat), or its quality and hence value (for example hides and skins), or both. Type II products

LIVESTOCK

IOI

tend to be seasonal because the reproductive cycles of many types of livestock are tied to specific seasons. The third type of product is seasonal by definition and the fourth, like the first, is likely to be seasonal to the extent that nutrition is seasonal. Many domestic animals are able to recover quickly from periods of malnutrition by achieving accelerated {compensatory) growth when access to feed improves. However, constant repetition of this cycle does serious long-term damage: production cycles for Type I products are drastically extended, as are reproductive cycles. Calving intervals, for example, might be 24 to 36 months instead of the 14 to 15 months common in less seasonal environments. The effects on an animal's health can be equally negative. A malnourished animal can succumb to a level of infection that a healthy one could fight off. Thus potentially fatal diseases like rinderpest, anthrax, black quarter and contagious bovine pleuro-pneumonia, although not necessarily seasonal in the incidence of infection, may nevertheless be seasonal in their effects. • Some conditions are also seasonal in their incidence. This is particularly true of parasitic infections, which are widely regarded as one of the major obstacles to the development of the livestock sector in Third World countries. Many parasites spend a part of their life cycles outside of the host, and are therefore subject to climatic factors. In the temperate zones cold weather inhibits their development. In the tropics they are inhibited by aridity, so that the most favourable conditions for extra-host parasitic development occur during the rainy season. In most tropical environments the parasite burden is drastically reduced in the dry season, but in arid and semi-arid environments where stock are concentrated round water bodies, water holes, oases, and other relatively lush areas, the development of the parasites can still continue outside of the host. As stocking densities build up, so too does infestation. The ground quickly becomes fouled with contaminated faeces, and infestation spreads rapidly, leading to further ground contamination and an increasingly vicious circle. The heavier an animal's parasite burden becomes during the dry season, the more difficult will it be for it to overcome the effects when nutritional conditions improve. Parasitic infestation usually results in yet another vicious circle: diarrhoea, loss of fat, impaired digestion and other effects of internal parasitism prevent the animal from regaining condition, and the corresponding ability to overcome the infestation, once feed supplies have improved. An important group of parasites to which stock in arid and semi-arid environments become especially exposed during the dry season are

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flukes, of which liver flukes {Fasciola hepatica) are very common and very damaging. Flukes use water snails as secondary hosts during their life cycle, so that they are found near water. During the dry season water levels generally fall, and the concentration of cercariae (larvae at the stage of emerging from the snail and seeking a mammalian host) rises correspondingly. Such concentration exists both in the water itself and in pastures exposed by the falling water level. The resulting increase in exposure to fluke-borne disease is again aggravated by the increased concentration of stock using such contaminated pastures and water supplies during the dry season. ENVIRONMENTAL ADAPTATION

As in the case of crops, domestic animals in adverse environments have evolved into types that are best adapted to local conditions. The humps on camels and dromedaries are well-known examples of adaptation to irregularity in food supplies. Another fundamental way in which animals have adapted to seasonality of food supply is to evolve a seasonal pattern of reproduction. This ensures that they give birth at a time of year when their offspring's chances of survival are greatest typically at the beginning of the season when food is most abundant. This requires that the females reach oestrus ('heat' or 'season') one gestation period before this time of year. In the temperate zones, and to a lesser extent at lower latitudes, the most important mechanism triggering oestrus is photoperiodism. Hence many species of sheep and goats (which have a gestation period of five months) reach oestrus during the shortening days of the autumn, whereas oestrus in the horse (which has a 12-month gestation period) occurs during the lengthening days of spring. Both cycles result in the young being born in spring, when fresh grazing first becomes available. In those parts of the tropics where rainfall is highly seasonal and there is a pronounced dry season, births in many animal species are attuned to the rains. Given the harsh environment it inhabits, it is not surprising that the camel is a highly seasonal breeder, with matings reaching a peak in January to March in the northern hemisphere, and June to September south of the equator. Mating behaviour among sheep, goats, horses and buffaloes is also seasonal: a study in India showed that 61.7 per cent of buffalo calving takes place between July and November, with a peak in August just after the rains (Williamson and Payne, 1965). Even in species whose females can come into heat in any season (such as pigs, cattle and donkeys), actual births can still be

LIVESTOCK IO3 markedly seasonal, since there may be seasonality in the reproductive behaviour of the male. This is the case with boars and bulls, both of which undergo a suppression of the libido during very hot weather. Seasonality of animal production is likely to be greatest where both feed supplies and reproductive cycles are seasonal. Swift (1981), for example, has compared three types of milk producing animals in Mali, central Africa. Two of these, goats and camels, are seasonal breeders and seasonality of milk production from them was shown to be correspondingly pronounced. Cattle, being non-seasonal breeders, show less seasonality of milk production than the other animals, although variation across the year was still quite considerable.5 ANIMAL HUSBANDRY IN THE MES O-EN VI RONMENT

Clearly the area farmed by a single village or group of villages is unlikely to offer the kind of scope for seasonal complementarities in livestock production that is to be found within the compass of the pastoral cycle. Nevertheless the more local environment does offer scope for some important complementarities of its own. For example, where there are forested areas within reach of the farmstead, animals may be grazed on undergrowth which is still lush and green at a time when open grazing has all but disappeared. Water plants and the leaves of trees may sometimes be harvested in the dry season and stall-fed to the animals. Complementarities within the meso-environment are maximized where farming is mixed, i.e. where it combines both crop and livestock elements, the two elements forming integral parts of the farming system. This is the normal traditional pattern in developing countries, although the poorer households may have only one element. On a mixed farm, each element may provide inputs for, and/or receive inputs from, the other. Thus cattle may contribute manure and work for crop production, while weeds from the fields and crop residues — in some cases even fodder crops - are fed to animals. Each element will also provide income for, and impose labour requirements on, the farm family. In mixed farming, then, the crop and livestock components each form part of the meso-environment in which the other operates. Such a combination may therefore provide, or at least have the potential to provide, a basis on which to build counter-seasonal strategies, as will be shown in the next chapter.

5~—;

~

Coping with seasonality

T H E NEXT TWO CHAPTERS examine some of the strategies that rural people have developed for coping with seasonality problems at the meso- and macro-environmental levels respectively. In the present chapter the experience of the developed world will be cited where appropriate, for this can sometimes contain important lessons — and caveats - for Third World countries today. Needless to say this is not meant to imply that solutions appropriate to the developed world should be introduced uncritically into poorer countries. Nor should the fact that a fairly large number of different ways of coping with seasonality have historically been developed, be taken to suggest that problems of seasonality can easily be solved; far less that they have been solved already. Traditional counter-seasonal strategies are often a case simply of making the best of a bad situation, and even many of these approaches are nowadays coming under increasing threat. The discussion begins with what is probably the oldest counterseasonal measure, post-harvest storage (with or without processing) of surplus production for use in the hungry season. Storage here is defined to include savings, since this is basically the storage of the value of commodities in the form of money.

• Storage and processing It was argued in Chapter One that the most serious seasonality problem of the poor and the disadvantaged is that of marked fluctuations in the consumption of food and other essentials about an already low mean. It was also argued that the mobilization of past income through storage is an incomplete solution to this problem, since the cost, loss and risk it imposes can be high, and fall especially heavily on the most highly 104

STORAGE AND PROCESSING 105 disadvantaged sections of the community. Moreover, storage does not address the production aspect of the seasonality problem, namely seasonal irregularities in the timing of resource requirements, and most especially the constantly repeated cycle of periods of exhausting overwork followed by intervals of unemployment.1 Nevertheless, storage and processing do have an important role to play within the context of a wider set of counter-seasonal strategies. Someone whose income takes the form of agricultural commodities has up to three options when contemplating storage: (a) store the fresh produce (an option that obviously depends on the nature of the product); (b) process it for better storage (one that requires the availability of suitable technology); or (c) sell or barter it and store the proceeds (a strategy that depends on the timing of both demand for the product and access to the market). The feasibility of storing fresh produce obviously depends upon its perishability. This concept can usefully be divided into three categories or degrees. Non-perishable products are those like foodgrains and many industrial raw materials that can, given proper storage conditions, be stored over a number of years. Semi-perishables, like apples, onions and potatoes, can be stored for up to a year, but are normally disposed of before the new crop becomes available. Finally perishable produce like whole milk, certain vegetables and soft fruits, cannot be stored unprocessed for any significant length of time. The economic, as distinct from the technical, feasibility of storing a commodity depends upon two factors. The first is storage cost in relation to the expected increase in the commodity's value over time. In a subsistence economy this increase will be a function of time preference. In a market economy it will also be a function of relative price. Storage costs include the direct cost of providing storage facilities and the cost of capital tied up in the product. The second factor is the degree of risk and uncertainty involved. This includes the possibility of physical damage, deterioration, theft or loss of the product. In addition, where the produce is to be marketed, there is always the possibility that the ultimate selling price will be too low to cover storage costs. In developed countries it is often possible to insure against both types of risk (in the case of price related risk by dealing in the futures market). Needless to say such options are not available to the poor and disadvantaged in developing countries. When produce is not stored, but sold or bartered immediately after the harvest, this may be for more-or-less immediate consumption by someone who does not have a seasonal surplus (perhaps a final consumer in another macro-environment), or it may simply be a way

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of passing on the problems, costs and uncertainties of storage or processing to someone else. Naturally, this transfer of responsibility is likely to be reflected in a relatively low post-harvest(or 'unprocessed') price. But these factors do not always account for all of the price spread between the post- and pre-harvest periods, especially in developing countries, where market failure is common and inter-regional and interseasonal price spreads are correspondingly large (Chapter 7). Processing is a time-honoured means of increasing the shelf life of perishable and semi-perishable produce. Traditional methods include sun-drying, parboiling, smoking, pickling, salt-curing and the making of preserves. The contribution this can make to reducing seasonality of consumption is obvious. It can also help reduce seasonality of resource use, especially labour, but only where the post-harvest season is a slack season for the workers in question. This caveat is important, for it is too often assumed that labour is plentiful after the harvest. However, the people who must do the processing are more often than not the women of the household, and gender typing often means that, while the post-harvest period may be a slack period for the men of the family, it is a very busy time for the women and girls. They are often responsible for all post-harvest operations. • Production technology This refers broadly to the methods and devices that farmers have developed for exploiting the type of meso-environmental diversity in seasonal production conditions discussed in the previous chapter. VARIETAL SELECTION AND DEVELOPMENT

The simplest way to extend the production season for an arable crop is to stagger planting, and hence harvesting, over a period of time. This is possible with annual species, since their growing seasons are, in most environments, significantly longer than their growing periods. However, most species have a biologically optimal planting or sowing period, one which will, on an average over the years, give the highest yield and the lowest failure rate or both. The more the actual production season departs from this technical optimum, therefore, the lower will the yield tend to be, and in some cases risk will increase also. Nevertheless the offsetting gains in terms of both staggering production schedules and food production, or perhaps capturing higher prices for an out-of-season crop, can make these costs and risks worthwhile. At a rather more sophisticated level, farmers often take advantage of the type of meso-environmental differences discussed in the previous

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chapter. Environmental differences make for variation in both the length and the timing of the growing season, and hence in the optimum sowing or planting season too, so that techniques can be developed that stagger production schedules without reducing yield or increasing risk. Chance, of course plays a major role here - the chance that a suitable range of production conditions exists within the meso-environment. A more purposeful approach is to adopt a range of varieties of a crop which differ genetically with respect to either growing period within a given growing season, or with respect to growing season itself. Such characteristics as photoperiod sensitivity and maturity character will determine the former. Factors like frost- and drought-tolerance and good seed retention will determine the latter. There is strong historical evidence that the more innovative amongst earliest farmers — probably women who were particularly observant when gathering from the wild - consciously practised varietal selection. They did this by seeking out specimens with desirable characteristics, gathering the seeds or other planting material and breeding from them. Historical evidence shows that such work began in what is now the Third World — which is hardly surprising since the great majority of the world's cultivars have their geographic centres of origin there (Vavilov 1926). Varietal selection goes back many thousands of years, and it is clear that many of the characteristics for which farmerinnovators selected were those that could be used to counter the seasonality problem. The evidence for this lies largely in genetic differences which can now be seen between domesticated and wild varieties of the same species. For example, domesticated varieties of peas and oats shatter (drop their seeds) much less readily than wild ones found in the same area, suggesting that farmers originally selected for good seed retention (Aitken 1974). This characteristic would reduce labour bottlenecks at harvest by making the timing of this operation less critical. In the case of cereals such changes were achieved as long ago as 5000 BC at Jarmo in Iraq with both the emmer and einkorn varieties of wheat and with two-rowed barley (ibid, p. 4). Where selection for earlier maturity — another useful component of a counter-seasonal strategy - is concerned, the evidence is more recent, because the genetic shift in reproductive structure is less obvious. However, the historical evidence is no less strong: References to maturity character within or between species are hard to authenticate without data on times of sowing and harvest. Proverbs and myths from Sumer (3000 BC) contain two of the most ancient ones. In the myth of Lahar the reference to the ' Shesh' grain of forty and sixty days may be better proof of differences in length of development than the reference in the

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proverbs which mentions 'the early and the late barley' without giving the time of sowing. Two varieties of millet with different growing periods are referred to in the ancient Chinese Book of Odes, the She King (iooo BC). Differences in maturity type are also recorded for other species, including the fig in Babylon in King Marduk's garden list (600 BC), rice in India (350 BC) and wheat in Greece at about the same time. The Indian writer Panini in his Sanskrit grammar was one of the first to mention the length of time taken by different varieties of a known crop when he compared the ' sixty day' rice, used in Punjab because it needed little water, with later varieties, (ibid). Some ancient records of maturity character in plants, classified according to the effect this had on the growing period, are listed in Table 5.1. Such varietal selection work by farmer-innovators of the ancient world continues, literally, to bear fruit today. One counter-seasonal advantage of early varieties is implied by the above point about 'sixty day rice' in the Punjab: namely that they permit a crop to be introduced into a cropping pattern where a longer duration variety could notfitor couldfitonly with great difficulty. This is counter-seasonal to the extent that it increases cropping intensity, increases productivity in a particular season (e.g. by replacing a less valuable crop), or eases labour and other bottlenecks by increasing the required turnaround time between successive crops. The most important advantage of short duration varietiesforthe poorest group, however, is that they enable a crop to be taken earlier in the hungry season than would otherwise be possible. Farmers of the Gangetic plain cultivate short-duration/low-yielding as well as longduration/higher-yielding varieties of rice for this purpose. The same basic strategy is practised by West African farmers, who grow an early millet variety whose name actually translates as 'hungry millet', and those in southern Tanzania, northern Zambia and northern Malawi, who grow ' ultra-early maturing varieties of both finger millet (which is an indigenous crop) and maize' (Leakey 1986, p. 39). The above examples are all of varieties which have been screened out and subsequently grown as separate crops. However, the purposeful use of varietal differences does not necessarily require this. When traditional crops are grown in the same plot from ' unimproved' seed, a high degree of genetic diversity (essentially a mixture of varieties) will normally be present. In the Great Lakes region of eastern Africa ' it is not uncommon to find as many as 30 genotypes of beans in the same field' (CIAT 1988, p. 66). Such heterogeneity means, among other things, that the crop is most unlikely to mature at a uniform rate, a characteristic which permits fresh produce to be harvested over a relatively extended period of time. Although this necessitates more

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Table 5.1. Ancient records of maturity character in plants

Species

Date of record

Where grown

Differences in maturity character within a species Barley, 'Shesh' 3000 BC Sumer grain (Iraq) Millet {Panicum 1000 BC China miliaceum) 230 BC China Rice India 350 BC Rice Babylon 600 BC Fig 350 BC

(Iraq) Greece

Importance of time of sowing Barley 900 BC Millet 1000 BC Wheat 800 BC Wheat 30 BC

Palestine China Greece Italy

Wheat and barley

Extension of growing period in cooler • climates AD 993 China Greece, 350 BC

One rice variety Wheat and barley

Egypt Extension of growing period by irrigation 1700 BC Sumer

Barley

Source proverbs, myth of Lahar Book of Odes Book of Rites

Panini's Sanskrit grammar King Marduk's garden list Enquiry into Plants

Gezer Calendar Book of Odes Works and Days (Hesiod) Georgics (Virgil) Li T'ao Enquiry into Plants

(Theophrastus) Farmer's Almanac

Source: Aitken, 1974, Table 1.1.

labour input per unit of output than a single harvest would require, it also reduces labour bottlenecks, essentially by substituting low opportunity-cost slack season labour for high opportunity-cost peak season labour.2 It tends, therefore, to reduce total labour cost per unit of output, despite increasing total labour requirements. The tradition of varietal selection (and other agricultural research) by the farmer-innovator has continued to the present day, but perhaps reached its peak in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, when it was personified by people like Charles Townshend and Jethro TuU whom historians have credited with starting an 'Agricultural Revolution'. These amateur scientists, themselves 'gentlemen farmers', knew the seasonality problem at first hand, and much of their work

IIO

COPING WITH SEASONALITY

addressed this challenge. In particular, a major difficulty at the higher latitudes had always been the lack of winter feed for livestock, and this led to a very markedly seasonal production pattern. The bulk of the herd had to be slaughtered before the onset of winter, causing an autumn glut of fresh meat, followed by a long period of very marked scarcity. Townshend's introduction of one new crop (turnip) and one new variety (improved clover) provided a new source of winter feed and hence eliminated this particular seasonal cycle. The turnip also occupied the land for longer than traditional crops, and could be harvested through until the end of December when the land had previously lain fallow. Hence a fuller utilization of land was achieved without any accompanying increase in labour bottlenecks. The later spread of a new variety of turnip from Sweden (the swede) reduced seasonal fallows still further. Unlike Townshend's Dutch turnip, which was not frost-resistant and therefore rotted in the ground if left there after December, the swede continued to provide fresh feed supplies until the end of February when the first spring grasses became available. The present century, with its rapid growth in scientific knowledge, has seen a correspondingly rapid growth of specialization in varietal research and development. Clearly this is a response to the everincreasing complexity of the subject matter as new scientific knowledge is acquired. Another development, at least in the developed countries, has been that public sector agricultural research institutes have increasingly tended to concentrate on basic scientific investigation, often at the expense of more applied work. This is in sharp contrast to the situation even in the early years of the present century, when agricultural scientists were expected to find solutions to specific farming problems. The link between the scientist and the farmer tends nowadays to be provided via a public sector agricultural advisory, or ' extension', service, while the development of specific new inputs and varieties (typically based on the outcome of the research institutes' findings) is usually the province of private sector firms producing agrochemicals and seeds. This division of labour has obvious drawbacks, but it has scored some noteworthy successes also. Well known examples of varieties that have radically altered crop seasons are early potatoes and winter wheat, both of which have permitted a large expansion of the season during which these crops can profitably be grown in the higher latitudes. A more recent example is the development of winter varieties of onion in West Germany, which has over the past twenty years not only permitted farmers to extend the

PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY

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550

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tu 6

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II 4

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-o c

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On

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0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Fcb Mar Apr May Jun 0

Figure 5.1. Demand for casual labour in rice-based cropping systems of Noakhali, Bangladesh (1978/9). = rainfall; — • • •— = labour (transplanting); = labour (harvesting); = labour (land preparation). (Sources: Drawn from data in Bangladesh Government 198; (rainfall data) and Gill 1981.)

season, but has also boosted overall production to an extent that changed the country from an importer, into an exporter, of the crop (Agra Europe 1986). In the developing countries, the international agricultural research centres and their national counterparts have historically tended to concentrate their limited resources on the improvement of yields, until quite recently paying little attention to other problems (Chapter 8). Even when yield levels were their almost exclusive concern, however, they did on occasion produce varieties sufficiently different from traditional ones to permit their successful incorporation into new or improved counter-seasonal strategies, even though this can, on occasion, produce bottlenecks of its own. This can be illustrated from the experience of incorporating modern varieties (MVs) of rice into traditional rice-based farming systems, an example of which is given in Figure 5.1. This uses the weekly level of employment of casual labour as a surrogate for the various peaks in

112 COPING WITH SEASONALITY production and labour use over the year. Obviously, even in a multicrop system like this, casual labour use is highly seasonal, ranging as it does from a maximum of around fourteen person-days per farm per week3 during the peak employment period to nil at the worst point of what is the hungry season in that part of the world (see Figure 3.1). Traditionally two main rice crops were grown in the area. The first, and in terms of output the less important, aus, is sown broadcast in midMarch to mid-May and harvested from early July to mid-August. This is followed by the main (aman) crop, which is transplanted from midAugust to mid-September and harvested during December. This simple chronology makes the changeover between the crops look very neat, but in fact the traditional system did produce a tight, if manageable, turnaround period. The problem was that aus, being harvested in the rainy season, has to be threshed, parboiled and brought under cover quickly, before it rots. This imposes a post-harvest peak for both labour and, more importantly, draught animals (which do the threshing as well as the ploughing), so that land preparation for aman must await the threshing of aus. The introduction of MVs in the aman season entails a shift in timing, since their season begins a month ahead of that of the traditional crop. There are two reasons for this. First the MVs are non-sensitive to photoperiod and therefore, unlike traditional photoperiod-sensitive varieties, can begin flowering when the days are still relatively long. Second, they are more sensitive to cold than traditional varieties and must therefore be transplanted earlier in order to flower before the onset of winter, when the nights become too cold. This difference in seasons has both advantages and drawbacks. The overwhelming advantage - and probably the main reason farmers in this area grow MVs - is not that they provide higher yields, but that they provide a crop about a month before the traditional aman comes off the land, during what was traditionally the latter (and therefore worst) part of the hungry season. The second advantage is that they enable the farmer to stagger workloads at harvesting and crop processing: the separate peaks for the MV and traditional aman harvests, in November and December respectively, show up very clearly in Figure 5.1. The major disadvantage of the MVs in this situation is that by requiring early transplanting they greatly tighten the traditional bottleneck of the aus I aman turnaround. This partly explains why the area under MVs is restricted (compare the size of the November and December harvesting peaks). There is also another reason. The MVs in

PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY 113 question are short-stemmed varieties, having been bred for this characteristic in order to reduce lodging (stem collapse under high grain yield). However, when these varieties are transplanted out, much of the land is still under water and their short stature means that they cannot tolerate even moderately flooded conditions. The farmers get around this problem by transplanting MVs only on the highest ground, and this places further limits on the potential for their production. The turnaround is well illustrated in Figure 5.1. The aus harvest begins in mid-July, and processing is not finished until mid-September. Transplanting, which for MVs of rice begins almost at the same time as the aus harvest, and both operations peak very rapidly, with the peak for MV transplanting merging indistinguishably into that for traditional aman. Thus five peak operations (harvest for one variety and land preparation and transplanting for two others) overlap almost to the point of coinciding. The overall annual peak in employment occurs at this period too, not at the obvious (transplanting) peak in midSeptember, but rather at the end of August, when employment for both aus harvesting and land preparation are at their peaks, and employment for transplanting is nearing its annual maximum.

COMPLEMENTARITY BETWEEN

ENTERPRISES

A farm enterprise in this context is a component of a farming system which creates an individual product or service which can be used or sold. Poultry production, wheat production and hiring out draught animals are examples. Since each enterprise is typically based on a different species, the potential for seasonal complementarity in production and resource use is generally greater than that generated by inter-varietal differences alone. Very few traditional farming systems are based on monoculture, and inter-crop differences as to characteristics such as growing period, growing season, tolerance of adverse climatic and other environmental conditions, input and cultivation requirements will always make for some measure of diversity in the timing of production and the timing and level of resource requirements. The introduction of new crops into a traditional farming system can either increase or reduce seasonality, or may even do both. For example, the introduction of an additional crop into a rotation may increase total production and reduce its seasonality, but it may also create new labour- and other bottlenecks if a faster turnaround between successive crops is then required.

COPING WITH SEASONALITY

10

11

12

Months of year

Figure 5.2. Labour demands on a holding in Shinshu, Japan, 1823. = cotton. (Source: Smith (1959) p. 14}.)

- = rice;

Examples of new crops which reduce seasonality of production are numerous; a few examples will serve to illustrate the general principle. Rice is a tropical/subtropical crop which requires 800 to 1600 mm (32-64 inches) of water; wheat is a crop of the temperate zone which requires 300 to 450 mm (12—18 inches). In tropical and subtropical areas in which a wet hot summer alternates with a cool dry winter, the introduction of wheat grown on residual moisture in winter has doubled cropping intensity on plots which were previously left under winter fallow after summer rice. A second example is provided by the rice-cotton rotation illustrated in Figure 5.2 (see also p. 120 below). Both of these examples involve crop diversification, but switching from one crop to another can sometimes have the same effect. Stichter (1985) cites the example of the introduction of white maize as a substitute for the traditional millet crop by Luo women farmers in central Kenya in the 1930s. Millet matures relatively slowly and can be grown only in the long rains; white maize, which matures faster, can be grown in the short rainy season also, and thus provides two crops a year instead of one. This technique of matching crops to seasonal variation in en-

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vironmental conditions can become quite sophisticated, as an example given by Harwood (1979) will illustrate. In this particular case the technique is to match the crop varieties in an intercrop (a mixture of crops grown in the same field at the same time) to the type of seasonal variation in soil fertility that was discussed in the previous chapter. Fast-maturing/high-nutrient demanding crops are sown together with slower maturing ones with lower nutrient requirements at the beginning of the rainy season, when nutrient availability is at a maximum. In such a system a fast growing crop like maize will be able to take advantage of the relatively high nutrient supply at that time of year and is harvested before fertility is seriously depleted, leaving the less demanding longer duration crops to grow towards maturity. Thus as fertility declines, so too does the overall nutrient requirement of the crop mix. The main limitation on the achievement of this type of complementarity is the existence of a season in which conditions are so adverse that no arable crops can be grown. This is true of the cold season at high altitudes and latitudes, and the dry season in many areas of unimodal rainfall. Even within such a restrictive environment, however, crop diversification can sometimes produce an important degree of seasonal complementarity. Leakey (1986) has drawn attention to important seasonality differences between therophytes, which produce a crop above ground level, and geophytes, which produce one below it. He notes that the latter type, in its relatively protected environment, can sometimes produce a hungry season crop, citing cassava as an important example. In terms of calories, this is the fourth most important crop in the tropics, after rice, sugarcane and maize (CIAT 1988). In Africa its importance is greater still, since it is the greatest source of food energy in the entire continent (IITA 1988). Unfortunately in some areas cassava is regarded as only a famine crop. While it will tolerate very adverse conditions, especially drought, cassava is of low nutritional value, and many people find it unpalatable. Nevertheless this crop has a number of potentially important counter-seasonal features. It is rich in calories, producing more energy output per unit of energy input than foodgrains; it grows well even in poor soils; it requires repeated but small inputs of labour throughout the year, rather than peak season concentrations; finally it can be left in the ground for up to two years (Stichter 1985). Cassava could therefore prove a very useful hungry season crop. Even its low nutritional value need not necessarily be an impediment, as it is rich in energy, and calories are often the greatest need in the hungry/busy season. If lack of palatability

Il6

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is a major problem in some places, the crop could be grown as a cattle feed (it is grown commercially for this purpose in Thailand), thus at least opening up the possibility of a counter-seasonal strategy based on crop-livestock complementarities. A parallel set of complementarities, pointed out by Chambers and Longhurst (1986) and Leakey (1986), is that between therophytes and phanerophytes (which include woody perennials like trees). Trees in many parts of the developing world have traditionally formed the basis of counter-seasonal strategies in combination with both arable crops and livestock, for they often have an annual growth cycle that is quite different from those of annual crops and other vegetation in the same locality. Because mature specimens are already established at the beginning of the growing season, they do not require cultivation and can sometimes produce a crop during the traditional hungry season. The extent of the complementarities in both income generation and labour demands that can be achieved when trees are included in a farming system is exceptionally well illustrated by the findings of a study of the role of the babassu tree (Orbignya phalerata) in shifting cultivation systems in the Maranhao area of northeastern Brazil (Hecht et al. 1988). Total rainfall in Maranhao varies from 1200 to 2000 mm per year, eighty per cent of which falls in the four-to-five month wet season. Agricultural production and labour use are correspondingly highly seasonal. The babassu is a palm tree which is extremely common in the regenerated forests of this area after they have been cleared for shifting agriculture by local ' slash-and-burn' techniques, so that stands of this palm are found in close proximity to cultivated clearings. An astonishing range of products for both subsistence and sale can be produced from various parts of the babassu. Most households do not produce sufficient food and other necessities from the fields for their subsistence. They therefore rely heavily on palm products for both supplementary home consumption and cash needs. The primary household uses of babassu are to provide charcoal for cooking,fibrefor basketware, thatch and other construction materials, fish traps, bird cages, a planting medium, livestock feed, palmito and palm wine, and a nutritious milky beverage, which can be made from oil or kernels (ibid, p. 29). Oil extracted from babassu kernels is an important industrial raw material (used in the manufacture of soap and feedcake), and this provides a market for cash sales. During the period before the main harvest of field crops, sales of babassu products account for the bulk of family income among the poorest of the shifting cultivators,

PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY 2422 20 18161412^

10 864-

SS

20 Oct

Nov

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fSSi Babassu-related

Figure 5.3. Labour allocation and complementarity between Babassu and agricultural labour. (Source: Hecht el al. 1988, Figure 4.)

and almost half of this is used to buy basic foods (rice, beans, cassava flour) and medicine (ibid, p. 31). Moreover, as Figure 5.3. shows, babassu and locally-grown field crops are complementary with respect to the timing of labour requirements, so that from both production and resource use viewpoints the combination of tree and arable crops constitutes a very effective counter-seasonal strategy. This example is by no means unique, and other authors cite instances of the similar use of trees under both open-access conditions and cultivation. Chambers and Longhurst (1986) and Leakey (1986) provide numerous examples. Trees can be important in the livestock economy also. They provide shade, and therefore relief from hot season stress, but more important still, some species can provide out-of-season fodder when it is otherwise in very short supply. A well known example is Faidherbia albeda (previously known as Acacia albeda), which is summer-deciduous, producing its crop of leaves in the dry season and dropping them in the wet. Farmers in north Africa, where the species is native, make great use of this 'perverse phenology', feeding the leaves to their livestock when fodder is otherwise very scarce, yet still being able to produce a crop in the understory during the wet season (Leakey 1986, p. 38). Both castor and sorghum have been successfully grown in association with F. albeda (ICRISAT 1988 b). Not only does no leaf canopy remain to shade out the crop, but even the fallen leaves

I I8

COPING WITH SEASONALITY

can be important, for they provide both nutrition and a mulch cover for it. This last example illustrates a further set of seasonal complementarities, that between the plant and animal kingdoms. Probably the greatest degree of crop-animal complementarity to be found in the tropics occurs in areas where the rainy season is both the hungry season in arable farming and the peak production season for livestock. Even where arable farming and livestock production are in separate hands, contact between farmers and livestock herders can provide important opportunities for the sale or barter of seasonal surpluses of inputs, output or both. The potential is fairly obvious in the case of output; in the case of inputs seasonal exchange of labour is a distinct possibility. Another example of input exchange is to be found in northern India, where farmers invite nomadic pastoralists to graze their sheep on crop stubbles during the dry season. This provides the nomads with feed for their flocks in the lean period and the farmers with on-site manure for their next crop (Harwood 1979). The same author provides an illuminating illustration of seasonal animal—plant complementarities; this time between poultry and crop production, instancing the case of joint rice and duck production which is found in parts of Thailand. Ducks, which can grow to a marketable size in only a few weeks, are introduced into the rice paddies immediately after the harvest, when they can feed on both stubble and gleanings. In this particular case the timing is such that the ducks are ready for market just in time for the Chinese New Year! Outside of the livestock sector, strictly defined, there may be further scope for seasonal complementarity with crop and livestock production. Fishery is an important example in many countries. People in southern Bangladesh, for example, spend half the year as farmers and the other half as fishermen. Culture fisheries can also generate important complementarities, for many species of fish, like tilapia and many of the carps, can be fed on crop and livestock by-products and harvested at almost any time of year. Even certain insects can form the basis of such complementarities, as in the farm-level production of honey, silk and lac. Finally, if diversification is pursued further still, perhaps the greatest contribution of all to be made to countering the innate seasonality of biological processes is that of rural industries. Such enterprises are often of unusual importance to the rural disadvantaged as they frequently employ members (particularly the women and children) of smallholder or agricultural labourer households during the slack

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season. Crop processing was mentioned earlier. Handicrafts and cottage industries often play similar roles, as they are typically based on agricultural raw materials or by-products, or on materials gathered from the wild. If family members are prepared to travel, itinerant trading during the agricultural slack season is sometimes a distinct possibility. This last practice is examined in some detail in the next chapter, as it is basically a form of seasonal labour migration. INVESTMENT

A wide range of investments in machinery, equipment, buildings and land improvement can be used to reduce seasonality of production and/or resource use. However, some forms of investment have created serious unemployment problems in the Third World, and this has led to a distinction commonly being made between types of investment according to whether they are labour-augmenting or labour-displacing. It

will be argued later (Chapter 8) that, while such a distinction can be useful, it can also be misleading if individual technologies are simply labelled with one tag or the other, for even in developing countries a technology that is labour-displacing in one set of circumstances may be labour-augmenting in another. Labour displacement is a central concern of Chapter 8. The present discussion will focus instead on the more positive aspects of investment, principally its role in reducing seasonality of production. Some forms of investment play an obvious such part, irrigation and greenhouse production coming readily to mind as examples. Other contributions are less immediately apparent, for example those of agrochemicals. (These will represent a cash investment if they are purchased and an investment of time if they are farm-produced.) The problem of soil acidity and the limitations this imposes with respect to cropping pattern was mentioned in the previous chapter. Farmers often add lime to the soil, in such forms as wood ash, in order to correct this and so create scopeforcrop diversification, and hence the possibility of staggering production schedules and workloads. Fertilizer too, whether organic or inorganic, can have a counter-seasonal effect. As was shown earlier, some crops need a fertile soil, so that fertilizing the land can also open up prospects of crop diversification, especially into fast-maturing crops which often have high nutrient requirements. Another contribution of fertilizer is that it can speed up plant growth and development and thereby reduce the crop's growing period. Even a small contribution in this area can reduce seasonality problems by

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easing bottlenecks in turnaround between successive crops - perhaps even creating a niche which permits the insertion of an additional crop into an existing cropping pattern. Smith (1959) provides an example from early nineteenth century Japan (then a developing country) which shows another, and perhaps rather surprising, way in which fertilizer has historically contributed to the reduction of seasonality (Figure 5.2). Before the introduction of chemical fertilizers in Shinshu, the paddy fields were fertilized by trampling grass into the ploughed and flooded land - grass which had to be cut and hauled from a mountainside nearby. This added as much as ten man-days per bushel to labour requirements during the planting season, when they were already at their annual peak. The introduction of chemical fertilizers not only saved this peak season labour, but a common result was also to permit multiple cropping. (Indeed, Smith argues, this, rather than the need to increase yields, was frequently the object of introducing chemical fertilizers.) The additional labour requirements of the new crops more than compensated for the labour saved in grass-manuring, but these extra requirements were imposed during the slack season. The diagram shows an exceptionally high degree of complementarity between labour requirements for rice and the new crop, cotton. As a result of the diversification, seasonal variation in both production and labour requirements were reduced, while total annual production and employment were both increased. Greenhouse production is not generally thought of as having a role to play in tropical and subtropical countries — although at higher altitudes simple forms of it (for example the use of plastic sheeting over frames to protect a vegetable crop from early-morning frost) can have a useful role to play. In the developed countries, of course, this form of technology can be very capital intensive indeed and it is often used to grow flowers and other ornamental species that are of no intrinsic value. Such conditions may seem about as far as it is possible to get from the seasonality problems of poor people in poor countries, yet there are still valuable insights to be gained from the rationale behind such a technology, as the following example will demonstrate. Growing flower crops under glass on a year-round basis involves control of light forflowerdevelopment as well as for photosynthesis. In Britain, natural daylight is insufficient to keep chrysanthemums growing from November to February; growers supplement natural radiation by the use of powerful lamps which sustain uniform growth and control day length for the flowering ' response of the crop. Chrysanthemum morifolium is a short-day plant; the varieties used in glasshouses initiateflowerbuds when the dark period exceeds

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9^ hours, and these buds develop intoflowerswith a dark period of more than io|hours. Artificial lighting is used to delayfloweringin the winter; blackouts are used during the summer to induceflowering.At our latitudes, the artificial long days needed from early August to the middle of May are usually applied by ' night-break' lighting switched on automatically in the middle of the night. Lighting must be applied for 3—4 hours in Southern England, and care taken that the continuous dark period does not exceed 7 hours orflowerbud initiation may start. Blackout has to be used from March to September to delay flowering (Rudd-Jones 1981, p. 171). There are at least two important lessons to be learnt from this example. The more important is the illustration it provides of the huge contribution modern scientific and technological methods can make to the solution of a specific — and in this case very tricky — seasonality problem. The point is not, of course, either the technique or the crop, both of which are pretty irrelevant to the problems of poor Third World farmers. The relevance is that it demonstrates unequivocally that the design of an appropriate agricultural technology must be based on both an accurate and detailed knowledge of the genetic characteristics of the variety and species being produced, and an equally accurate and detailed knowledge of the agricultural and economic environment in which it is to be grown. The second lesson concerns comparative advantage. Winter production of crops under glass is obviously an expensive undertaking in the temperate zone, especially when the cost of heating is added to the other capital and operating costs. The 'energy crisis' of the 1970s ought to have focussed more attention than it did on one great potential advantage enjoyed by the developing countries of the tropical and subtropical zones. They receive a much higher annual total of solar energy than the temperate regions, so that their potential for supporting photosynthesis is correspondingly higher. Although this advantage is partially offset by the positive relationship between latitude and photoperiod during the summer months, in winter both factors work to the advantage of tropical locations: not only is it sufficiently warm to grow crops during the tropical cool season, but day length is greater than at higher latitudes and dry season skies are typically clear and sunny. All of these conditions favour photosynthesis. In many subtropical, and even tropical areas, cool season temperature conditions would support the production of temperate crops. The problem in realizing the above potential is that in tropical and subtropical locations that have a cool season, this is typically also the dry season. Few such locations have soils that can retain sufficient

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Table 5.2. Irrigated areas, 1964-84 Per cent irrigated8 Region Africa" Asiac Asia without China Latin America" All Developing Countries All Developing Countries except China All Developed Countries

1964

1984

2-7 31.2

5-4 29.6

18.8 8.9

25.2

percentage change

20.5

8.4 19.7

12.1

16.1

+101.4 -5.0 + 34.2 -4.8 -3.8 + 32.9

6.0

9.2

+ 51.8

Notes: "Percentage of cultivated land (arable land plus land under permanent crops); b Excluding the Republic of South Africa; c Excluding Japan; dIncluding all of the Americas except Canada and the USA. Sources: Computed from data in FAO (1976) and FAO (1986). moisture to support a crop throughout this time of year. Hence investment of time and other resources in water supplementation, management and conservation measures have a vital role to play in capturing the potential advantage of most developing countries with respect to solar energy. Irrigation and water management

Irrigation is not, of course, a new technology, and many parts of the developing world have a history of irrigation that is many thousands of years old. Nevertheless, new irrigation technologies using both ground- and surface water, have made it possible to bring an increasing proportion of Third World agriculture under irrigation. Table 5.2 illustrates the growth of irrigation in developing countries from the mid 1960s to the mid 1980s. Africa has shown the greatest relative growth, but from an extremely small base and on a cropped area that actually declined (by about nine per cent) over the period. This is particularly true in the drought-stricken Sahel. Africa, despite, or perhaps because of, its severe drought problems, is still the least extensively irrigated of all the continents. The overall African figure

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does, however, disguise enormous diversity within the Continent. At one extreme, Egypt has virtually all of its cultivated area under irrigation, whereas at the other end of the spectrum a Sahelian country like Chad has just 0.2 per cent. Asia presents a very different picture. A very high proportion of that continent's cultivated area is irrigated, and, outside of China, this proportion has been growing fairly steadily over the period. Irrigation can reduce seasonality in a variety of ways. First, it enables farmers to get their crops established earlier by reducing the risk that the rains may be late or sporadic at first. This in turn will both reduce the risk of crop failure and permit farmers to extend the growing season, affording them greater flexibility in selecting crops and varieties. Yields are likely to be higher, partly because of the elimination of checks to crop growth which result from early drought, and partly because the lengthening of the growing season means that longduration/high-yielding varieties can be grown. Alternatively the farmer may opt for an earlier harvest on irrigated land by sowing or transplanting before the rains. This will be especially attractive where the harvest is traditionally preceded by a hungry season. Where farming is commercialized, and where relatively few farmers irrigate, those who do can benefit from the high crop prices that generally prevail before the main crop comes off the land. As will be shown in Chapter 7, the spread of irrigation in Pakistan, one of the most extensively irrigated countries in the world, has permitted crop seasons to be greatly extended, a factor which has led, among other things, to a sometimes dramatic reduction in seasonal crop price fluctuations. Irrigation also permits an increase in cropping intensity, the introduction of new crops and varieties and/or a shift in cropping seasons to facilitate a closer matching of requirements to resources. Moreover, a radical change in timing can also protect a crop against weeds, pests and predators whose life cycles are attuned to traditional crop seasons. These cycles will at least take time to adapt to the new food potential which the irrigated crop represents. Finally, even when only some of a farmer's plots are irrigated, the difference in production schedules between irrigated and rainfed plots will help stagger both production and resource requirements. All of the above implies both an increase in production and a smoothing out of peaks in production and input requirements. Both have the effect of increasing employment per unit of land per year. Recent analysis of data from 281 districts in India, for instance, indicates that the introduction of irrigation in dry belts and seasonally

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dry areas ' would increase the number of man-days of work a year from its present level of 150 to as much as 300 days' (Mukherji 1985, p. 284). At this point (lest the present author be accused of' irrigation bias') it must be stressed that, whatever the advantages of irrigation, the reverse side of the picture shown in Table 5.2 is that around 80 per cent of the arable land in the developing world is cultivated under rainfed conditions. This situation is not going to change radically in the foreseeable future: on most cultivated land in the Third World, even where water is physically available, it would be uneconomic to use it.4 In rainfed areas, nevertheless, a great deal can often be done to conserve water and so permit a significant extension of the growing season. Not all water management techniques require investment. One such is a careful husbandry of existing soil moisture using simple, noncapital intensive technology. Probably the simplest approach of all is to substitute crops with low water requirements for those whose water demands are high, as in the earlier-noted case of wheat and rice. Another such approach is to reduce evaporation by such methods as minimum- and zero tillage, mulching and relay cropping (i.e. the sowing of a new crop into a standing one shortly before its harvest). In parts of Asia relay cropping is a common practice, as, for example, when pulses are sown into a field of standing grain (particularly rice). The maximum period of overlap between crops in a relay depends on the shade tolerance of the second crop. In the case of crops relayed into standing rice, for example, mung bean and radish have a maximum overlap of only two to three days, while cassava and taro can have an overlap of several weeks (Harwood 1979, p. 84). This technique has a number of important counter-seasonal advantages. First, since it eliminates the need for cultivation, it simultaneously eliminates any possibility of a labour/draught-animal bottleneck for this operation. Because of early sowing, relay cropping also permits the second crop to be taken earlier than would be possible had a fresh seedbed been prepared. Compared to cultivation, this technique helps conserve soil moisture by greatly reducing evaporation, partly because the soil is not disturbed and partly because a stubble mulch is left on the land. This conservation effect may in itself be the factor which permits a dry season crop to be taken where it would otherwise be impossible without irrigation. A more interventionist approach to water management is water harvesting, i.e. the capture and storage of excess water in the wet season for use in the dry. Large scale irrigation dams, of course, do this, but there are simpler techniques. In areas like the State of Gujarat, in India,

PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY I2J ponds are constructed to capture rainwater, allowing it to percolate into the ground and thereby recharge the aquifers that will be tapped for dry season irrigation. In much of Africa the complete drying out and extreme hardening of the soil surface is a major dry season problem. On such lands when the rains do come water penetration is minimal, the overwhelming bulk of it being lost as surface runoff (often causing seasonal downstream flooding). The result of this type of situation, well illustrated by the Nigerian data in Figure 4.4, is low dry season reserves of moisture in the soil in spite of sometimes very heavy wet season rainfall. A technique that has been successfully employed in Kenya to counter this type of problem is to plough long ridges across the slope of the land before the rains. These then present a series of barriers to surface runoff, thus facilitating water penetration - helped, of course, by the break-up of the hard surface. The harvested water is automatically stored as soil moisture and can support crops for much longer than would otherwise be possible. Needless to say this trench digging is not a job that can be done by muscle power. It requires investment in heavy equipment, preferably crawler tractors, to deliver the required power. This is an interesting example, providing, as it does, a practical illustration of a technology that would normally be thought of as labour-displacing in fact acting as a labour-augmenting one. For in these particular circumstances mechanization brings otherwise fallow land under cultivation and therefore increases production and, consequently, labour requirements. The role of trees in various counter-seasonal strategies was mentioned earlier. This is not the sum of their contribution, however, for they can also play a vital role in dry season moisture conservation. The role of deforestation in reducing the depth and humus content, and consequently the moisture-holding capacities, of tropical soils was noted in the previous chapter. Investment in trees has the opposite effect. Indeed trees can even induce dry season precipitation, especially if a belt of them are planted as a windbreak across the prevailing dry season airflow. The role of trees in moisture management and moisture conservation is multi-faceted. Because they are deep-rooted, they can tap sources of moisture (and nutrients) from deep in the soil profile, where they are inaccessible to arable crops, so that their growing season may be significantly longer. In addition, the leaves and boughs break the force of heavy tropical rainstorms, while the root system helps bind the soil together. By both of these means, trees protect the soil from erosion and hence from further shallowing and loss of moisture

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retention capacity. Moreover, leaf-fall from deciduous species fertilizes the soil, eventually becoming incorporated into it as humus. An important moisture conservation strategy based on trees takes advantage of the relatively humid dry-season conditions that exist under the canopy by growing shade-loving or shade-tolerant crops in the understory. Cassava, coffee, ginger, pineapple, taro and winged beans are important examples in the tropics. Farmers on the Indonesian island of Java are so expert at recognizing the scope for complementarities between crop species of different heights and shade-tolerance, that they can practise a three-tiered form of crop stacking in their farmyards, with crop-yielding bushes, shrubs and vines growing between the tree canopy and the ground cover. Of course, afforestation is not always appropriate, and farmers have developed methods of cultivation that help address the problems of low humus content and shallow soil depth in the open field. They do this principally by applying organic material to the land in such forms as farmyard manure, compost and leaf litter from forest areas. Although this is done in the developing world primarily to increase soil fertility, if sufficient organic material is applied the accompanying deepening of the soil and increasing of its humus content means that it will gradually become a better reservoir of moisture. A similar result can be achieved by growing a 'green manure' crop on the land and subsequently ploughing it under. As a final word on this topic, it must be added that not all water management is concerned with conservation: sometimes there is just too much of the stuff. Farmers have devised techniques for dealing with this situation too, field levelling and the provision of field drains being the most important examples. Simpler techniques are also used for this purpose, though: for instance, in high rainfall areas crops are often sown or planted onto high ridges or raised beds so as to reduce waterlogging and thus permit earlier sowing after the waters have begun to recede. Transplanting, which is especially widespread with rice and certain vegetables, is a technique that can be used to cope with either too much, or too little, water. Where there is too much, seedlings are raised on the higher ground and transplanted into lower fields as the water level falls. Where there is too little moisture, seedlings can be raised on low ground (for example in the mud of seasonally dry streams, ditches or ponds) or under small-scale (even hand-) irrigation, ready to be transplanted out with the onset of the rains.

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Labour-saving technologies

A distinction should be drawn between labour-displacing technologies and labour-saving ones. The latter will here be taken to mean any technology that can be used as an alternative to labour. It will not necessarily be assumed that it will cause unemployment. It may instead increase production with the same labour force. Or it may serve as a substitute for labour that is not available anyway. It may even increase total labour requirements by, for example, easing a peak season bottleneck and thereby increasing production. Labour-displacing technologies are that subset of labour-saving technologies which cause a net increase in unemployment. The distinction arises, not from the technology itself, but from the circumstances into which it is introduced. Even the simple equipment of traditional agriculture is often laboursaving. It also often has a counter-seasonal effect in that it enables farmers to increase labour productivity at peak periods. The most important such piece of equipment is probably the plough. This technology enables a much larger area to be brought under cultivation and planted on time than could ever be the case with hoes. (But then this is only an extension of the labour savings that were earlier made when the hoe itself replaced the digging stick.) Weeding hoes, metal sickles, the use of animals for treading the grain and certain traditional irrigation devices, such as the animal powered water wheel, all have similar effects. In the agriculture of developed countries even capital intensive farm machinery, which causes such legitimate labour displacement worries in a Third World context, can be regarded in a similar light, for in that particular context it is often labour-replacing, rather than labourdisplacing. The remainder of the present section will look briefly at the counter-seasonal effects of farm machinery in developed countries, for very often it is the success of such equipment in this sphere that prompts shallow thinkers and interested parties to advocate its uncritical adoption in the Third World. In developed countries agricultural employment has been largely deseasonalized. That is to say, although the type of work that must be done varies by season, and, although there is some seasonal variation in the level of labour requirements, the total number of people employed does not vary significantly in the course of the year. (Horticulture is something of an exception, but even here mechanization is steadily increasing.) There are two main reasons for this.

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First, technological innovation of the type discussed above, and heavy investment (in, for example, land improvement, irrigation, glass houses and other farm structures) have greatly reduced the seasonality of agricultural production in such countries. Second, the unemployment associated with the remaining degree of seasonality of production has largely been shifted from the labour force to farm machinery. That is, a small but highly skilled labour force is employed to use a succession of different pieces of machinery during the annual production cycle, thus virtually eliminating labour bottlenecks. What relatively little additional labour is required in the peak season can usually be supplied through overtime working. During the slack season, when on-farm labour availability exceeds the requirements of current production, it is switched to essential repair and maintenance tasks. The switch of the burden of seasonal unemployment from labour to machinery, it need hardly be said, did not arise from humanitarian considerations. In the Europe of the Industrial Revolution it was initiated largely because increasing employment opportunities in nonseasonal industries, together with large-scale emigration, made it increasingly difficult for farmers to secure a peak season labour supply. In places like North America and Australia during European colonization, on the other hand, the availability of huge tracts of expropriated land for free, or almost free, settlement by immigrants made it exceptionally difficult for farmers to hire any labour, seasonal or permanent. Of course, as far as the farmer is concerned, the switch has merely solved one seasonality problem at the expense of creating another, for some of the most expensive farming equipment, especially harvesting equipment, is highly seasonal in use. However, this has transformed what in the developing countries is still a devastating human problem into a merely financial problem in the developed world. Financial problems are nonetheless real for the farmer and several ways have been devised for coping with seasonality of machine use. One is to seek further reductions in seasonality of production. Thus in dairy farming the development of adequate supplies of winter feed has meant that milk production is fairly constant throughout the year and so too is the use of milking machines and other dairy equipment. A second approach is to increase the range of operations for which a machine can be used. This is best exemplified by the farm tractor. This machine was originally developed for land preparation, but since the application of hydraulic principles to tractor design it has steadily been adapted to do an increasing number of tasks around the farm. Modern

SURVIVAL STRATEGIES 129 tractors can be used for ploughing, harrowing, weeding, harvesting, transportation and lifting, as well as for powering a wide range of other machines. Where technological solutions are not available, organizational ones can sometimes be developed. For example, neighbouring farmers may share equipment either informally or through a co-operative - although within a given meso-environment there are obvious limits to what can be achieved in this way. Specialist custom hiring is usually a more economic option, since the machine owner is not tied to any particular locality and can therefore take advantage of differences in the timing of operations in different macro-environments. This particular approach has probably reached its greatest stage of development in the United States. There custom hire firms with fleets of combine harvesters begin the year's work in the southern states and then move their combines steadily northwards, often all the way to the Canadian border, working as they go. They can do this because the date of crop ripening is later the higher the latitude. • Survival strategies The cost of adopting new production technologies can range from very high levels down to virtually zero. However, even when the cost of the innovation itself is nil (as it can be in the case of switching between crop varieties), there are often associated costs for inputs like fertilizer. In virtually every case there must be access to land. Hence the range of counter-seasonal technologies that can actually be adopted steadily narrows the less access there is to non-labour resources. At the lower end of this spectrum, the existence of open-access resources may still permit the landless to adopt some counter-seasonal technologies, as in the cases of handicrafts and charcoal burning noted earlier. Where, and increasingly this is becoming the case, such resources no longer exist, the landless have nothing to fall back on but to sell their labour power, their pride or, more often than not, both. It seems an ironic fact of life that the lower an individual or family's income is, and therefore the more they are hit by marked seasonal income fluctuation, the less are they able to adopt counter-seasonal technologies. They are nevertheless affected by such technologies, since investment decisions made by others can have a crucial impact on both the overall level of demand for labour and the timing of this demand. Technological change may of course benefit them, but it is very unlikely that their welfare will be a factor in other people's investment decisions.

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The primary danger is, of course, that counter-seasonal technological change will be labour-displacing. This problem of being powerless to influence the decisions of vital importance to oneself is probably most acute for the 'ultra-poor', but it also applies to other disadvantaged groups. For instance, a woman from a middle- or upper-income household could easily find her already-heavy crop processing workloads increased further following her husband's decision to invest in irrigation. Marginal farmers who rely on hiring out' surplus' labour during peak periods are similarly at the mercy of investment decisions over which they have no control. In such circumstances, the poor and the powerless usually have to fall back on social and economic strategies that are much less effective than technological ones. Social survival strategies entail the creation and cultivation of human relationships - often of a subservient and demeaning nature - which will in time provide a bulwark against seasonal stress. The least demeaning of such dependency relations are probably those based on religious obligations, such as the Islamic tithe, an injunction that the better-off should give a tenth of their wealth to support the poor. This, in some societies at least, has been used to help counter seasonal stress (Longhurst, 1986b; Toulmin, 1986). Intrafamily dependency relationships have something in common with these, in that they too are bolstered by an element of external or moral pressure on the better-off at least to prevent other family members from falling into destitution. However, such relationships can be nonetheless demeaning, as in the case of a young wife who must not only work extra hard, but also must adopt an attitude of sometimes extreme deference and subservience towards her husband and in-laws if she is to obtain even the most meagre share of family resources. In an extended family a similar combination of hard work and deference is often expected of 'poor relations'. Other survival strategies are primarily economic, in that they hinge on the central economic issue of the optimum allocation of scarce resources between desirable, but competing, end uses. Examples were discussed in Chapter 3. One was the calculated sacrifice of the interests of the weaker members of the family in order to mobilize all available labour at peak periods. It is the high productivity of labour at such periods that determines that overall family welfare is maximized by allocating labour to agriculture, rather than child rearing. Another example is the strategy of switching to an almost unrelieved diet of the cheapest available food in the hungry season. Such foods are generally the starchy staples, high in energy but low in nutritional value. This

SURVIVAL STRATEGIES

I3I

strategy is ' optimal' in the sense that, given existing income constraints, it achieves a relatively large energy gain (and the solution of an immediately pressing problem), at the cost of a relatively small (but in the longer-term damaging) nutritional loss. Other strategies may be called 'socio-economic', in that they produce social forms based on mutual economic advantage. One common arrangement is the mutual exchange of labour and other goods and services, between smallholders of approximately equal socio-economic status. However, the scope for this type of arrangement is obviously limited by the limited extent to which peak seasons overlap within the same meso-environment. The patron-client relationship, on the other hand, while it is also a social form based on mutual (if not necessarily equal) advantage, makes for a different set of complementarities. For example, a large farmer might provide his clients with slack season loans or employment in exchange for a guaranteed supply of labour at peak periods. However, there is evidence from parts of South Asia that the scope for the development of this type of relationship is weakest where seasonality of production is especially marked (Chambers and Harriss 1977). Moreover, the mutuality of such arrangements is in many places breaking down, as patrons find their need for peak season labour reduced by labourdisplacing technologies, or its supply increased through population growth. In such circumstances the patron-client linkage, where it survives, is likely to become increasingly one-sided, as the clients are forced into ever greater concessions in order to maintain what they can. Just how demeaning these relationships can become is evinced by strong (if unwritten) testimony that in southern Bangladesh, for instance, some sharecroppers have been reduced to maintaining dependency relations by accepting that the landlord has the right to ' marry' their young daughters for the period of the harvest. This is the only time of year during which the owners routinely visit their lands, which they do in order to ensure they get their share of the spoils.5 To speak of 'coping' with seasonality when this entails adopting some of the survival strategies outlined here, is to imply that the term has taken on a particular meaning. The disadvantaged do not cope in the sense of seizing opportunities that ultimately increase profits and incomes, or reduce seasonality of resource requirements. Rather they cope in the sense that one copes with the loss of a limb: by making painful adjustments and choosing the least among evils.

Seasonal labour migration

SEASONAL MIGRATION is usually necessary in order for people to be able to take advantage of complementarities in the timing of production and income-earning opportunities at the macro-environmental level. Two forms of this have already been discussed: hunting-gathering and nomadic pastoralism. The present chapter will concentrate on a third pattern, which, in terms of numbers of people involved, is of very much greater importance: the seasonal migration of agricultural labour. Migration theory has occupied a fairly central position in the development debate since at least the early 1950s, and, in the course of their evolution, views on the subject have tended to polarize around two positions.1 Some writers view it in a positive light, regarding it as a rational response to changing economic opportunity, part of a continually evolving income maximization-cum-risk minimization strategy. Early writers on the subject (especially the 'zero marginal product' school of thought mentioned in Chapter 1) presented what is now recognized as a simplistic version of this view: surplus labour from the rural areas would migrate townwards in search of greater economic opportunity, thus simultaneously providing a source of labour for industrialization and raising labour productivity in agriculture (see especially Lewis 1954, and Fei and Ranis 1964). These theoretical views were subsequently modified in the light of empirical evidence, later theories taking account of the risk of not finding employment in town (e.g. Harris and Todaro 1970). Still later writers took two very important features of Third World labour migration into account. The first, emerging from strong empirical evidence such as that 132

SEASONAL LABOUR MIGRATION 133 reviewed by Standing (1981) and others, is that the farm household, rather than the individual, tends to be the relevant decision-making unit. The second, more important one, is that labour migration in developing countries is characterized by circularity, rather than permanence. That is, it is a form of temporary migration in which the migrant maintains his or her home and family in the rural area, returning to it periodically, sending remittances to it, receiving supplies from it, or any combination of these. These two features have been incorporated in more recent models of labour migration, or circulation, such as that of Yiu-Kwan and Stretton (1985), in which 'family members allocate their labour between urban and rural sectors so as to maximize their income, which in turn is allocated between urban and rural goods so as to maximize utility' (p. 342). Roberts goes further and incorporates the element of both rural and urban risk in his household labour circulation model, arguing that 'the household, when its size and composition allow, engages in a strategy of risk minimisation through the allocation of its labour to different economic sectors and regions' (1985, p. 363). The other school of thought to emerge from the postwar evolution of migration theory is much more pessimistic, explicitly rejecting the 'equilibration' viewpoint implied in the above models. Lipton (1980), on the basis of ' cross-section analysis of migration data from several hundred village studies', reviewed the evidence on the impact of migration itself, the absence of migrants from home, the impact of net remittances and of their return home, and found the story ' surprisingly gloomy'. He found that 'equilibration' failed for a range of reasons, notably the fact that the migrants tended to be younger, better educated and more highly motivated, and their departure left the village the poorer in terms of human capital. Moreover, since the majority of migrants are male, the responsibility for agriculture in the village falls more heavily than ever on women, who, with their multifarious other responsibilities, often simply cannot cope with the increased workloads. Nor did he find that migrants' remittances made up a significant portion of their families' incomes, while those who returned to the village tended to be the old, the sick and the 'failures', who imposed further burdens on the village family. Others writers express themselves rather less surprised than Lipton to find that ' equilibration' has failed. A number see it as a part of the 'proletarianization' process, whereby labour is forced out of traditional, subsistence, modes and relations of production into the modern (usually urban, but also mining and estate agriculture) monetized

134 SEASONAL LABOUR MIGRATION sector. Once incorporated into the modern economy (or at least on the fringes of it) labour can, it is argued, more effectively be exploited, both by domestic interests and within the system of dependency relations that exists between the developed countries and the developing nations on the periphery of the world economic system (Lwoga 1985, Thadani 1985). All of the above theories of migration have one serious drawback. Even where labour circulation within the rural areas is acknowledged to exist, as in the case of Lipton (1980), the analysis has tended to focus almost exclusively on migration flows from the traditional/rural sector to the modern/urban one. Yet labour circulation within the rural sector is a long-established, large-scale, and evidently growing, phenomenon in the developing world (Chatterjee 1983, Standing 1985a). Rempel (1981), in a review of seasonal out-migration, reports many large scale migratory flows throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America, typically involving hundreds of thousands of persons each year. Swindell (1985) estimated that at least two million workers migrate annually from the sudanic zone of West Africa to the commercial crop zones of Senegal, the Gambia, the Ivory Coast, Ghana and southern Nigeria, returning home before the start of the new crop season on their own farms. This last type of migration has a great deal in common with the pastoral cycle described in Chapter 4. People who cannot remain productively employed in a single location throughout the year migrate elsewhere in the knowledge that a different set of environmental conditions has created differences in crop calendars or other production cycles, and hence differences in income-earning possibilities, in another part of the macro-environment. The counter-seasonal strategy implicit in such annual migrations is obvious. However, probably every known form of labour migration, regardless of the direction or permanence of the move, has somewhere at some time been adopted as a counterseasonal strategy. Even permanent rural—urban migration is counterseasonal in effect, to the extent that the migrants in question succeed in exchanging seasonal rural employment for non-seasonal urban work. It need hardly be added, of course, that throughout the developing world the supply of migrants and potential migrants who would like to adopt this strategy far outstrips the demand for their services, so that migration strategies that dampen, rather than eliminate, seasonal income fluctuations have had to be devised. In describing these strategies here the traditional characterization of migration flows as rural-urban, rural-rural and urban-rural will be dropped, as it is not particularly useful in the context of seasonal labour

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migration. The implicit identification of rural with traditional and urban with modern is misleading. The modern sector may be rural, as in the case of estate agriculture, logging, and in many cases, mining. Equally, the urban sector may be traditional, for an agricultural labourer securing a porter's job in an urban vegetable market has hardly moved into the modern sector. In a study of season migration patterns a much more important distinction is that between, on the one hand, labour circulation between seasonal and non-seasonal occupations and, on the other, circulation between two or more seasonal occupations that are complementary with respect to timing of labour demand. • Circulation between seasonal and non-seasonal occupations With one or two exceptions, most employment in the urban sector (and in most extractive industries) is non-seasonal. There is, therefore, a fundamental conflict of interest between the urban sector's need for a steady, year-round labour supply and agriculture's need for large seasonal labour inputs. Where labour is scarce (at least at prevailing wage rates), this conflict generally seems to be resolved to the benefit of traditional agriculture: labourers make themselves available to the modern sector only when there is no work to be done at home, simply decamping whenever their services are required for the peak season in their home villages. Lwoga (1985) even found instances of migrants refusing the offer of permanent work in the modern sector in Tanzania, preferring to work only during their own slack season and return home with the approach of the busy season there. Whether they would have done so had conditions in the modern sector been relatively more favourable is difficult to say, but evidence from other studies shows that even when earnings in the commercial sector are high, migrants may still prefer to go home for the peak season. Colfer (1985) found that migrant workers in both Indonesian Borneo and Malaysia, although they earned very well in commercial logging operations, were quite unwilling to accept permanent employment in this sector as it would interfere with peak season labour requirements at home. Chapman reports that even the offer of industrial training and permanent urban employment in Honiara, capital of the Solomon Islands, was not sufficient to tempt migrants to remain during the busy agricultural months of August to February (1985, p. 386). In such a situation any negative effects of migration on production in labour supply areas is unlikely to be as negative as is sometimes

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argued. Indeed, cases have been documented in which the net effect of migration on agricultural production in the migrants' home villages has actually been positive. Stichter (1985), in her major study of labour migration in Africa, documents the case of the Mpondo tribe in southern Africa, where the adoption, around the turn of the century, of seasonal out-migration by the men had such a beneficial effect: 'Changes in cropping, which were integrally linked to migrancy, enabled all families to cultivate more land, despite their smaller size and the withdrawal of male labour for long periods. Male labour was now only essential in the ploughing, and perhaps the harvest, seasons' (p. 44). The men were therefore able to leave home immediately after the harvest, take a six-to-nine-month contract in the mines of South Africa, and return in time for the next ploughing. Stichter continues: ' Total, and perhaps even per capita, output apparently continued to increase during the decades when mass migrancy became institutionalized'. She also observes that (admittedly impressionistic) statistics suggest a fourfold increase in maize production over a forty year period. Moreover the cash brought home by returning migrants was often invested in cattle, so that statistics on stockholding 'show a similarly striking increase' (ibid). However, all of this was achieved in the first four decades of the century, when land was plentiful and cattle prices falling: 'After the 1930s crop production and stockholding almost certainly decreased, expansion having reached the limits of natural resources and of available capital, labour and markets... The equilibrium between agricultural productivity and labour migration proved to be only transitory' (ibid). This last observation is a crucial one. Certainly there is great variation in the environment in which labour circulation takes place, but even in areas where it was once favourable, this environment is eroding over time. Where per capita resource endowment is plentiful (as in much of Africa before the Second World War, or as in Borneo today) migrants are effectively able to dictate the terms of their employment in the modern sector, using their seasonal movements between this and the traditional sector as a mechanism for income maximization and for capital accumulation. In modern times and in most parts of the developing world, however, the terms of employment are moving increasingly and remorselessly in favour of the modern sector. Historically, even when labour was scarce and unwilling to move into full-time employment in the modern sector, employers there, despite their lip service to freedom of economic choice, were not always

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content to see their enterprises suffer from seasonal labour withdrawal at the beckoning of traditional agriculture. At times legal measures (in such forms as forced labour and labour conscription) were used to secure a labour supply for privately owned mines and estates. This was especially common under the various European colonial regimes in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Other approaches were slightly more subtle. A particularly common mechanism resorted to by most colonial regimes was the imposition of cash taxes whose aim was to drag subsistence peasants into the cash economy, particularly by forcing them to seek wage employment in a modern sector which often found itself short of labour at the going wage rate (Lwoga 1985, Stichter 1985, Thadani 1985). In other cases employers themselves imposed restrictions on labour circulation, an example being the imposition by the South West Africa Native Labour Association (a white employers' organization) of restrictive recruitment requirements, including a minimum one-year contract, which 'for the last fifty years...has vitiated any attempt by migrants to combine periods of absence with the agricultural cycle' (Stichter 1985, p. 117). Not all restrictions on labour circulation were imposed by the modern sector, it must be added, for in some cases migration to the non-seasonal sectors was sufficiently lucrative that labour shortages did occur at peak periods in traditional agriculture. To cite Stichter again, restrictions on the timing and duration of migration were introduced in the early twentieth century by Ovambo kings in Angola in order to ensure an adequate peak season labour supply for local agriculture (ibid, p. 21). In some parts of the world such supply-area restrictions continue to be used today, as in the case of' village governments' in Tanzania, which have periodically attempted physically to prevent out-migration, and if that failed, fined any migrants upon their return (Lwoga 1985, p. 138). This latter type of restriction attests to the powerful' pull' effect that the non-seasonal modern sector has on rural labour in much of the developing world today. As rising population and resources constraints in the traditional sector have begun to bite, employment has tended increasingly to be on the modern sector's terms. One clear indication of this is that labour circulation between modern/urban and traditional/rural sectors has tended more and more to become a case of migrants basing themselves, not in their home villages, but in city slums or peri-urban shanty towns, returning to the rural areas only for the harvest, if then. The scope for even this limited degree of circulation depends on the type of urban/modern sector employment that has been secured. Those fortunate few who have managed to get

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permanent jobs risk losing them if they absent themselves for protracted periods. Their contribution to village labour supply may therefore be limited to whatever annual leave they can take during the peak season at home. When no formal sector employment is available, circulation between the seasonal and non-seasonal sectors tends remorselessly to transform itself into a mere survival strategy. Examples of this type of labour circulation include the rickshaw pullers of Varanasi (Benares) in northern India (Mukherji 1985) and the poorest migrants in a variety of occupations in Bangkok (Chapman 1985). As in Mukherji's description of such labour circulation in northern India, migrants ' swarm to the metropolises in search of manual work, often eking out a miserable living in urban informal activities. Frequently, they visit their home villages to see their families, to harvest tiny plots or to work on other farms' (ibid, p. 275). • Circulation between seasonal occupations Not all urban industries are non-seasonal. The most important examples of seasonal urban industries are tourism and construction. Unfortunately, however, both of these, for different reasons, have their slack season during the rains, and as pointed out earlier, this, in many developing countries, is also the hungry/slack season in agriculture, so that seasonal complementarity between these industries and agriculture is often minimal. However, within the agricultural sector itself, particularly at the macro-environmental level, the scope for finding seasonal complementarity in employment opportunities is often much greater. In comparison with the large body of literature that exists on migration from the traditional/rural to the modern/urban sector, labour circulation within the former sector has received scant attention. Even studies which take the seasonal aspect of rural poverty as their theme have surprisingly little to say on the subject. Tl >retical work, in particular, has concentrated on labour flows from tue traditional/ rural to the modern/urban sector. Even where such studies are explicitly concerned with seasonal flows of labour into the agricultural economy of a particular area, they can overlook the importance of inmigration from other agricultural areas. Thus Bellas (1984) has developed a model of seasonal labour supply to agriculture in one area which takes no account of potential supply from other agricultural districts. It is assumed instead that only urban—rural migrants can supplement local agricultural labour: ' Turning to the peak period, one has to examine the role of suppliers who are not farmers themselves.

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These could be people who live on the brink of the urban sector of a predominantly rural region (part-time builders, semi-skilled or unskilled labourers, gypsies, etc.)' (p. 25). In the theoretical literature on labour circulation, the lack of attention to circulation within traditional agriculture reflects a more general lack of interest among many theorists in traditional modes (as distinct from relations) of production. In contrast, resource transfers, including labour, from the traditional to the modern sector tend, implicitly or explicitly, to be viewed as being of crucial importance to a long-term structural shift in the economy. In some cases they are seen as an integral aspect of' development', in others as a realignment of the world economic order which permits increasingly effective external exploitation of Third World resources. It would be difficult, however, to fit into either construct many of the traditional short term migratory flows that occur between rural areas in developing countries. Some of these forms of circulation have been in existence for centuries - often pre-dating European colonialism, let alone the 'development debate'. Indeed some forms of rural—rural seasonal migration, such as migratory hunting-gathering and nomadic pastoralism, date back thousands of years. Not all of the blame for the neglect of labour circulation within the rural sector can be laid at the door of the theorists, for there are practical problems of identification and measurement also, which prevent the adequate analysis of these flows by the more empirically minded. Goldstein (1978) has observed that circular migrants, because of the transitory nature of their residence, are often missed when urban census data are collected, with the result that the full extent of this type of migration is often seriously underestimated. If this is true of the cities, how much more must it be true of the rural areas, where the migrants' period of residence is apt to be briefer still and census data collection more difficult and less comprehensive? Even where primary data on labour circulation are collected, such surveys tend to concentrate on urban areas. This is, perhaps, understandable: the target population in urban areas is much easier to see and measure than is the case with the more diffuse flows that characterize labour circulation in the countryside. Moreover, not only are urban slums and shanty towns an obvious blot on the (citydweller's) landscape, but the high concentration of migrants in a few cities makes them relatively easy to survey. Primary data collection in the rural areas is, of course, far from uncommon in developing countries. (Indeed sometimes it seems almost impossible to walk through the countryside without tripping over

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some enumerator or other!) However, seasonal migration is not usually a major focus of attention in such surveys. In more general agricultural surveys several factors militate against adequate consideration of migratory flows. First, for cultural reasons male enumerators are often unable to approach, let alone interview, the heads of female-headed households, so that households whose males are seasonally absent tend either to drop out of the sampling frame or be marked down as nonrespondents. Second, where on-farm interviews are conducted, household members who are currently working elsewhere are obviously unavailable for interview and their activities can therefore easily be overlooked. In any case, most questionnaires are concerned almost exclusively with on-farm activities and not, say, with what household members may do during periodic absences from home. Such factors constitute an effective barrier against the measurement of slack season out-migration in the source areas. But what of inmigration in the receiving areas? Here an equally effective barrier to measurement exists, namely the fact that in-migration, for obvious reasons, occurs in the busiest period(s) of the year. Anyone who has attempted to collect on-farm data during such a period very quickly realizes that this is an almost impossible task. People simply cannot spare the time. Thus the season in which migrants are present in significant numbers on the farm is the one which tends to get missed out of surveys. The opposite side of this coin is, of course, that in the supply areas interviews conducted in the slack season, when farmers have most time to devote to answering questions, are likely to coincide with the seasonal absence of a significant part of the workforce. All of the above adds up to yet another bias to append to Chambers' list discussed in Chapter 1: seasonal migration within the rural areas, like other aspects of seasonality, tends to remain un- or under-perceived. Certainly there are studies of rural—rural seasonal migration — some examples are discussed below. But these are very often micro-level, so that it is difficult to gauge their representativeness across the country, or to aggregate them so as to arrive at macro-economic estimates. As a contribution to the correction of this particular bias, a 'rapid appraisal' methodology for exploratory macro-level studies of seasonal migratory flows in agriculture is suggested in the Appendix. This includes a case study illustrating the use of the technique in practice. Seasonal migration within the agricultural sector has its roots in the type of natural and man-made complementarities discussed in the two previous chapters. An excellent illustration, worth looking at in some detail, is provided by migration between the wet and dry zones of Sri Lanka (Figure 6.1). This is rooted in macro-environmental differences

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Dry zone Intermediate zone Wet zone

Figure 6.1. Sri Lanka showing wet, dry and intermediate zones. (Source: adapted from Farrington et al. 1984, Map IV. 1.)

in the timing of cultivation under rainfed conditions and irrigation. Crooks and Ranbanda (1981) list both 'push' and 'pull' factors which cause migratory flows from the wet to the dry zone. The major 'push' factor, is the fact that farms are small and incomes low in the densely populated wet zone: more than fifty per cent of the sample had holdings of less than an acre (0.4 ha) of paddy land, which is too small to support a family for a year. The main ' pull' factor is the availability of remunerative employment on irrigated holdings in the dry zone during the wet zone's slack season. The land preparation/transplanting season in the wet zone extends from September to November, peaking

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in October; the corresponding season in the dry zone is November to January with a December peak. Thus, as the wet zone's first busy season begins to tail off in November, the labour which becomes unor under-employed can begin migrating to the dry zone, a flow which will steadily build up to meet the December peak. The distances travelled by migrants range from about 5 o to 120 km and their usual length of stay varies from two to six weeks. A second unemployment peak occurs later in the year during the harvesting/threshing period. Again the peaks in the two zones are separated by around two months. Migrants therefore return home after transplanting is completed in the dry zone, so as to be available for the harvesting peak on their own holdings, returning once more to the dry zone for the harvest peak there. The example just described is far from unique. Chatterjee (1983) has indicated that a similar degree of complementarity exists between Burdwan (India) and neighbouring districts of West Bengal and Bihar, as has Upadhyaya (1988) for the Nepal terai and the neighbouring hills. Complementarities between agricultural regions can sometimes be exploited without the migrants' direct involvement in the agriculture of the receiving region, for such complementarities can sometimes also be exploited in the shape of trade in seasonal produce. Swindell (1984, 1985) provides a number of examples of West African farm families' traditional methods of' turning the dry season to profitable account' in this way. Sokoto was mentioned earlier as an area of extreme dryseason aridity (Figure 4.4). The Hausa farmers of that part of Nigeria long ago became adept at coping with this problem, by transforming themselves into dry-season traders. Their principal export was the rice they had just harvested, which they took to the coast for sale. There they used the proceeds to purchase the seasonal produce of other areas, principally kola nuts and cotton, which they brought home with them. The mark-up earned on these commodities was commonly as high as ioo per cent, and the profits were bolstered by the addition of nonseasonal produce like salt and even money (for they also capitalized on regional differences in the exchange rate between the native cowrie shell currency and the colonial shilling, differences which could be more than three-fold between Sokoto and the coast!). Agricultural labourers also migrated coast-wards from Sokoto in the dry season, where they found jobs could be obtained in porterage, droving, building, brick-making, well-repairing, carrying water, yam lifting and cutting firewood. Their earnings from these activities could be increased two- or three-fold by buying trade goods which they then

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sold at a profit on reaching home (Swindell, 1984). So bound up with the seasonal agricultural cycle were these transactions that the Hausa expression for them translates as 'eating the dry season', and so widespread was the practice that around 250000 men — between a quarter and a third of the male population of Sokoto Caliphate — was found to have left home during this season when a detailed survey was conducted in 1952-3 (ibid). Other writers have indicated a similar state (if not similar level) of income maximization in seasonal occupational shifts. Hence Meillassoux (1975) found considerable complementarity in seasonal shifts between subsistence agriculture at home and wage work during the slack season in Kenya. It would of course be foolish to assume that a neat degree of complementarity characterizes seasonal migration patterns within rural areas throughout the Third World. In many cases a household will be reduced to calculating trade-offs between loss of home production and loss of potential outside income, juggling resources between different geographical areas in order to maximize household income and/or minimize risk in the manner predicted by the Yiu-Kwan/Stretton and Roberts models cited earlier. Rempel (1981), after reviewing a fairly large number of studies of seasonal labour migration, listed several social and economic characteristics which rural migrants seemed to have in common. The first is that migrants usually have some land. This is an extremely important finding, for it suggests a severe limitation on the extent to which one of the most disadvantaged rural groups, the landless, has been able to use migration as a seasonal survival mechanism. Rempel explains this in terms of the landless having nothing to hold them to a particular place, and therefore being the most likely group to migrate permanently. This explanation is open to question, however, for it would be quite wrong to assume that the landless are also rootless. They will almost certainly have a village home of some sort, which they may wish to maintain, quite possibly together with a set of social relations (of, for example, a patron-client type) which are of sufficient economic value to make them wish to maintain their ties to a particular locality. In addition, as Lipton (1980) has pointed out, the evidence of a large number of studies is that migration imposes costs which the very poorest groups cannot easily afford. Moreover, they do not usually have the contacts necessary to assure them of employment in the non-seasonal sectors.2 Rempel's second observed characteristic of seasonal migrants is that they are most likely to be people whose ' exploitation of their land is held down either by the lack of a market for cash crops, or by a seasonal

144 SEASONAL LABOUR MIGRATION rainfall regime and a lack of irrigation which make year-round farming impossible' (ibid, p. 213). There are two separate points here. Obviously the lack of opportunity for year-round farming will create a powerful ' push' effect in the slack season - and the longer the slack season the harder the push. The second point is the need for cash. As noted earlier, such a need, created especially by the imposition of cash taxes, has long been recognized as a 'push' factor in labour migration. If it is to be successful there must be an area in which complementary seasonal employment opportunities exist in sufficient volume to create a corresponding ' pull' effect, as in the Sokoto and Sri Lanka cases cited earlier. Rempel's third conclusion concerns this 'pull' factor: 'No doubt there are regions that meet the conditions for seasonal outmigration but where people regard earning possibilities elsewhere as too low relative to the cost of moving' (ibid). These three points about migration and the characteristics of migrants can best be understood within the context of an informal 'cost-benefit' analysis which, it must be assumed, lies behind the decision-making process of the rural household.3 Of course none of this analysis will be put on paper, nor are the individual elements likely to be rigorously separated out, but the process need be no less real for being intuitive. The decisions that must be made include (a) whether or not to send migrants at all, and, if so, (b) which family members to send, (c) when they should go and (d) when they should return. The expected benefits of migration are a function of two variables, knowledge and connections. Not only must the family of potential migrants know of the existence of employment opportunities elsewhere, but there must also be a reasonable degree of assurance that any migrants they send will be able to secure such work. Many studies indicate that both variables are largely functions of kinship and community ties, and that these are often so strong that the degree of assurance of employment is virtually absolute (Crooks and Ranbanda 1981, Stretton 1985, Yiu-Kwan and Stretton 1985, among many). The cost of migration has three elements. The first is transaction costs, i.e. fares, food and lodgings on the road, and in some cases payments to facilitate the illegal crossing of an international border. The second is the opportunity-cost of any earnings foregone by (a) not leaving later, (b) not returning earlier, or (c) not staying at home altogether. The third set of costs are social. These include not only the pain of separation, but also other possibilities, such as potential damage to patron—client relations and the danger of having to default upon mutual labour exchange arrangements. Implicit in this assumed cost-

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benefit evaluation will be an allowance for an element of risk and uncertainty. Risk includes the danger of illness, injury or theft of earnings. Uncertainty about obtaining employment will depend largely on the state of the market and the strength of the family's connections. Where they exist in practice, such cost—benefit calculations would go a long way towards explaining Rempel's observation that those most affected by seasonal deprivation, members of landless families, are actually less likely to migrate than those who are slightly better-off. The level of uncertainty is likely to be greater than for families that are somewhat better-off, as the poorer a family is the less likely is it to have good connections with those able to provide jobs and job information. On the cost side, again compared with rather more fortunate rural families, the landless are (a) less able to afford the costs and uncertainties of migration and job-search, and (b) much more economically dependent on social relations, and hence less able to afford the cost of possible damage to these.4 These arguments can be illustrated by returning to the Sri Lankan study cited earlier. First, in the wet zone source villages it is wellknown that employment prospects exist in the dry zone that are complementary to local labour requirements (and at wage rates around a third to a half as much again as the going rate in the wet zone at that time of year). Second, the majority of those who migrate are assured of employment before they leave home, usually because they will work for relatives who have migrated permanently to set up farms in the dry zone. In contrast to these are the 'itinerant migrants' who are to be seen 'wandering around looking for possible employment', securing fewer work days than the others and being paid at lower rates (Crooks and Ranbanda 1981, pp. 44—47). Third, the opportunity-cost of slack season labour in the wet zone is low or zero, since little employment is available even at the (low) going rates of pay. Fourth, migration distances being relatively short, both transaction costs and physical risks are likely to be correspondingly low.5 The consequently large difference between (economic) costs and benefits is obviously sufficient to compensate migrants for the social costs of migration (which, given the relatively short duration of the stay away from home, may not be all that high in this particular case). The problems of the very poorest among potential migrants is well illustrated by experience of seasonal migration from Mexico to the USA. Here the difference in earning potential is unusually large (Rempel 1981), but so too are the transaction costs of migration, since most of it is illegal. These transaction costs are sufficiently high to

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exclude the poorest Mexicans from this form of labour circulation (Roberts, 1985). The existence of clearly delimited dry and wet zones in a country like Sri Lanka (especially when reinforced by differences caused by irrigation) makes for important differences in seasonality of production, and hence employment opportunity, within a relatively small geographical area. Where such clear divisions do not exist, however, the diversity needed to create the necessary complementarity in production conditions must be sought over a much wider area. Communications then become a vital factor in determining whether or not migration is profitable. As communications improve (through, for example, the provision of new infra-structure which reduces transaction costs, through improved information flows, improved security and better transmission of market information) migration is likely to increase, other things remaining equal. Swindell reported that in Nigeria the extension of the railway from Port Harcourt to Sokoto caused an increase in both the volume of migration and the distances travelled by migrants (1985, p. 133); Hugo makes a similar observation on the effect of the 'minibus revolution' in Java (1985, pp. 62—5). The gradual improvement in transportation links and other communications across West Africa over the first half of this century is reflected in Figure 6.2, which shows that labour circulation has been growing in terms of both distance covered and volume. It was earlier argued that one of the reasons the very poor migrate less successfully than others is their lack of connections which could guarantee them employment in the receiving areas, so that job-search is relatively expensive and risky. Paradoxically, those who wish to employ labour migrants are often similarly placed, as regards risks and expense. Not knowing where a labour surplus might exist, they cannot tap the cheapest source or obtain an assured labour supply. Moreover, as in the case of employers in Sri Lanka's dry zone, they are often understandably unwilling to trust any itinerant strangers who may present themselves for employment without the credentials of a known and accepted guarantor. Nature of course abhors a vacuum, and into the vacuum created by the simultaneous existence of seasonally surplus, and therefore cheap, labour in one area and heavy labour demand in another has come an important facilitator: the labour contractor. This entrepreneur makes the vital connection between the would-be employer and the would-be employee, at once providing a guaranteed labour supply for the employer and taking the risk and uncertainty out of the migration process for the poorest labourers. Market failure,

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Birni

Silame f' Argungu ^s

-NYelwa Auna Zungeru

i .4

Daily paid labour Farming, fishing Trading and herding Frequency of movements

0

Number of migrants

Medium High 100 km

French territories

'SOKOTO I'Zamfara^ • Kano Elsewhere .jn region 1 Jos

Takoradi,.;.; 0 ' 100' 200 300 km' • \

Figure 6.2. Changes in dry season migration patterns from Sokoto Province, Nigeria. (a) Early twentieth century; {b) mid twentieth century. (Source: Swindell 1985, Figures 5.2 and 5.3.)

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however (see Chapter 7), often ensures that the contractor can gain monopoly, or near-monopoly, profits from the transaction, so that the poor seasonal migrant may reap little of the benefits of spatial differences in labour demand and wage rates. Spindel (1985) illustrates this with his description of the working conditions of one particular group of seasonal migrants, the boia fria (a pejorative term meaning literally ' cold lunch') of Brazil. The boia fria are labourers who have migrated to towns and cities permanently with their families (often after eviction from sharecropped holdings). These unfortunates then hire themselves out to labour contractors who truck them to a succession of farms in the surrounding areas, whenever there is demand for labour during the various peak seasons. Thus, although they are urban residents, these labourers effectively migrate between a succession of seasonal (in this case agricultural) industries. The conditions under which the boia fria live and work, their nutritional status and that of their families, as described by Spindel, are among the worst to be found in the literature on economic deprivation anywhere in the Third World. Indeed the conditions under which they are, quite legally, trucked to and from work are actually regarded under Brazilian law as being too dangerous and inhumane for the shipment of livestock (ibid, pp. 328—33)! In circumstances like these, labour circulation is a survival strategy par excellence: it represents the outcome of the bleak choice between starvation and mere survival. • Social consequences Earlier references to the social costs of seasonal migration need amplification and supplementation. In particular it should be noted that most, but not all, of the social consequences are negative. Migration can have significant social consequences in both source and receiving areas. In the source areas the social burden is borne principally by those who are left behind, mainly old people, women and/or children. The burdens will be felt by children especially if it is their mothers who migrate, for then the ill-effects of a reduction in nutrition and nurturing earlier described in the case of nursing mothers having to work in the fields (Chapter 3) will be multiplied many times over. Seasonal migration and other forms of labour circulation by women is more common than is generally realized. In fact' in numerous countries women make up the majority of short-term and longer-term migrants' (Standing 1985a, p. 22).6 A more common pattern still, however, is that both women and

SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES 149 children are left at home while the men migrate. Some incline to the view that, provided the men return for the periods of heavy labour such as ploughing and harvesting, this does not increase women's workloads - a s in the studies reviewed by Rempel (1981). This seems perfectly reasonable, especially in those parts of the world where many farming operations have traditionally been the responsibility of women. However, where the men do not return for operations that were traditionally a male responsibility, or where they do not return strictly on time, the social consequences are twofold. Not only is there an increase in women's workloads, but there is also a tendency for the gender distribution of labour to change, with women increasingly taking over tasks that were traditionally male (Buvinic et al. 1978, Mullane 1981, Colfer 1985, Lake 1985). This last area is one in which the social consequences of seasonal male migration on the position of women can become positive. True, a shift in the gender division of labour can work to the disadvantage of women, particularly (as is often likely to be true in this case) where it means that women have to assume even greater responsibility for food production, while cash earnings are increasingly concentrated in the hands of the men. Against this, however, must be set the greater role in decision-making which women acquire as a result of the men's absence. Colfer, after discussing the increase in Bornean women's agricultural responsibilities following the departure of their husbands, interprets this as having helped reinforce the traditionally high status of women which stems from their competence as farmers. She concludes: ' The portrayal of women's fate in the presence of considerable circular migration has been one-sidedly gloomy, at least in this instance — Development literature focuses on the hardships women undergo and thereby encourages a climate of opinion that de-emphasises women's competence' (1985, pp. 248-9). Stichter implicitly agrees, citing a number of instances from African history in which agricultural productivity actually increased as a result of women taking over farm management following male out-migration (1985, pp. 44 and 66-7). The effect of labour circulation on birth rates is another area in which there is some room for disagreement. Intuition suggests that the absence of men from the village would have a negative effect. Colfer reports this to have been the case in her study area in Borneo, where village women noted this fertility-regulating effect, 'always with appreciation' (ibid, p. 235). However, this is in a part of the world in which circulation typically lasts for longer than a season. Where the men return periodically — especially, as is so often the case, where they do so for the harvest — and where there is only one crop a year, the

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almost inevitable result is an annual peak in conceptions which will produce a corresponding peak in births during the next (pre-harvest) hungry season. A number of other social (or socio-economic) effects of seasonal migration in the source areas have been mentioned by several writers, although it is not always very clear how widespread these might be. One consequence that is widespread is the part that migration plays in the proletarianization of the agricultural labour force. Another effect, found by Laite in the Andean region of Peru, was that labour migration has contributed to 'land turnover and alienation' and to 'the crystallisation of social classes' (1985, pp 108 and 116 respectively). On a slightly more positive note, Rempel concluded from his literature review that, although a number of studies have indicated that this form of labour circulation may act as a substitute for agricultural development in the source areas (in others it may even be detrimental to existing agriculture), against this several studies show that returning migrants sometimes bring back new ideas which improve local agriculture (1981, p. 213). The social effects of migration on the receiving areas have attracted some attention also (e.g. Clay 1976, Standing 1985 a), although much less than for the source areas. These latter studies have turned up at least one very disturbing, and apparently widespread, trend, namely the willingness of landlords and large farmers to substitute seasonal migrants for local labourers in order to permit the dissolution of traditional (and often counter-seasonal) patron—client linkages. Standing, in a review paper, observed that the availability of migrant labour often permits such individuals ' to dispense with reciprocal obligations impeding their efforts — or deterring them from making efforts — to transform pre-capitalist productive relations, obligations such as loans to tide over the slack season or the implicit guarantee of employment throughout the year' (1985a, p. 10). This last finding has very serious negative consequences for the rural disadvantaged in general and landless agricultural labourers in particular. It implies that, not only are such people less likely than their slightly better-off neighbours to benefit from seasonal migration: they are actually likely to suffer from it, for the poorest families tend to be more than usually dependent on the cultivation of patron-client linkages and other pre-capitalist production relationships as a survival strategy. The expansion of seasonal migration as a counter-seasonal strategy, therefore, far from benefiting the ultra-poor, may actually have made them worse off in both relative and absolute terms.

Special problems of developing countries: I. Market failure and market distortions

T H E R E ARE BASICALLY TWO WAYS in which macro-environmental diversity in agricultural production conditions can be exploited to counter the seasonality problem. One which has already been examined is for workers and the owners of other mobile resources to move them for sale or barter in response to seasonally changing economic opportunity, as happens in seasonal labour migration and nomadic pastoralism. The second, which is complementary to the first, is for owners of agricultural produce to move it around between areas that differ with respect to the timing of seasonal surpluses and deficits. Where such diversity exists, or where it can be created through technological change, the extent to which its counter-seasonal potential can be mobilized depends upon economic integration. It does not necessarily depend upon whether such integration is achieved through central planning or market orientation. The present chapter confines itself to the latter end of the spectrum because few developing economies are centrally planned, while even fewer seem content with the system. Two observations about the market economy should be made from the outset. First, the use of money, although helpful, is not essential to its development. Much of the seasonal migration/marketing of labour described in the previous chapter is, or was, barter-based: even labour is often in effect bartered, when it is exchanged for a share of the harvest. Although pure barter trade is generally less efficient than trade based on a single and widely acceptable unit of value, the principles as applied to the present discussion are similar. However, only the moneybased concept of price will be used here, since otherwise the discussion

15 !

I 5 2.

MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTIONS

becomes unnecessarily verbose. And in any case the importance of money grows with increasing market orientation.1 The second point is that the help of market intermediaries (i.e. merchants, traders, bankers and other middlemen) is no more essential to market development than the invention of money. Returning again to the labour circulation example, many of the flows discussed in the previous chapter grew from personal contact between the labourer and the employer without the intervention of a middleman. However, as the labour migration case also shows, market intermediaries (in this case labour contractors) do, nevertheless, often find a role to play. As buying and selling expand at the expense of subsistence production and barter, as the economy becomes more integrated and complex, as trade links begin to cover ever-increasing distances, the specialist role of the market intermediary will tend to expand in step. Again for the sake of simplicity, the following discussion assumes that goods and services move around at the macro-environmental level as a result of arbitrage (buying cheap, selling dear) by specialist intermediaries, rather than by, say, farmers selling directly to consumers in far-off places. In principle, market forces will counter seasonality through the operation of the price mechanism. The theory is straightforward and seductive. Relatively low prices in one area encourage profit-hungry intermediaries to develop new markets. Similarly, high prices in other areas stimulate the search for low-cost sources of supply. Where interregional price differences exist in practice, and where these are greater than the transaction- and other costs of moving produce, the search for new markets and sources of supply will sooner or later result in the establishment of trade links and a consequent flow of goods from surplus to deficit areas. Increased demand in the former then allows farmers to obtain higher prices for their produce, while increased supply to the latter causes a fall in the prices paid by consumers. The first intermediary to establish the link between such areas may reap monopoly profits initially, but in the longer-term high profits encourage other traders to enter the market. Competition between them will then further reduce inter-regional price differences. Even short-term monopoly profits have an important role to play in this process, for they provide a reward for initiative and risk-taking, an incentive that maintains momentum in the continuing search for new markets and new market opportunities. This type of process can reduce not only inter-regional price differences: where an area which suffers from alternating seasons of surplus and deficit is connected through marketing channels with another area that complements it with respect

INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS

I5 3

to seasonality of surpluses and deficits, inter-seasonal price movements will also be dampened, in both areas. A parallel argument applies to the flow of resources and services. For example, if ample cash is available in one farming area after the harvest, an efficiently functioning credit market would use interest payments to attract deposits in these areas, transfer the funds to areas where there is demand for short-term (seasonal) production or consumption loans, and lend the money out there at higher rates of interest. Again competition for depositors in the supply areas and competition for borrowers in the deficit areas would minimize the difference between interest rates paid by borrowers and those paid to depositors. While few would claim that such theoretical advantages are fully realized in any economy, it should be obvious that the degree to which they are realized in practice will depend on the level of economic integration and market development. Transportation development is obviously a vital element of this, for good communications lower transaction costs and encourage competition. Both competition and the opening up of new markets are encouraged by the growth of fast, accessible, reliable and extensive information channels. The reduction of institutional and 'ad hoc' barriers to market entry and the unhampered movement of resources and produce are other essential components of market development. Where the opposite conditions prevail, where communications are poor, where trade barriers are significant and competition is lacking - i.e. where there is market failure — the theoretical benefits just outlined will fail to materialize in practice. That conditions of market failure prevail to a greater or lesser extent in most rural markets of developing countries is generally agreed, and this has a profound effect on the seasonality problem. + Institutional factors If a society is strongly feudalistic or hierarchical, as rural societies in developing countries tend so often to be, the forces of conservatism will be correspondingly strong and the penetration of new ideas equally difficult. Communities tend to be small and closely-knit, with only a few families or individuals in their upper echelons having sufficient knowledge, prestige or contacts with the outside world to play an entrepreneurial role. Whether they choose to play such a role or not, they are certainly in a strong position both to keep in check any potential entrepreneurial talents among the lower strata of their own communities, and to limit, perhaps even preclude, the intrusion of potential

IJ4 MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTIONS competitors from outside. In its crudest form - one which is not uncommon in developing countries, yet often left out of consideration by proponents of the market economy in such a setting — market failure takes the form of a simple denial of the freedom of economic choice. If, for example, farmers are unable to resist pressures to buy from and sell through specific marketing channels, then one of the most fundamental conditions for a market-led economy is violated. Such pressures may range from simple brute force to the rather more subtle, but no less effective, economic leverage which results from the interlinked nature of many Third World rural markets. If, as is so often the case in developing countries, the small farmer's trader and supplier also happens to be (or be closely in league with) his or her landlord, moneylender or slack season employer, the former's freedom of choice with respect to crop disposal and other market transactions are likely to be severely circumscribed. In their efforts to limit competition, local elite groups are strongly assisted by the very factors which characterize economic underdevelopment. Many rural areas in the Third World have only recently begun to enter the market economy, so that existing norms and relationships are often more appropriate to a subsistence economy. Conversely, the attitudes and relations appropriate to a fully marketbased economy have not yet developed to a very marked degree. Even were such factors entirely favourable to the development of the entrepreneurial spirit, widespread poverty would severely limit the number of people with sufficient capital to purchase, store and transport a stock of goods and at the same time accept the risk of failure without this spelling disaster. In addition, poorly developed information systems together with widespread illiteracy inhibit the free interchange of information and ideas, while an inadequate transportation network hinders the flow of goods, services and information. In such a situation it is hardly surprising that governments have often tended to adopt an interventionist approach. Even without such a stance, the marginal impact of government investment — even investment in, say, education, road construction, or agricultural research — would tend to be high, and would have important implications for the development of the market economy. Many Third World governments have, however, gone much further than this, and, on the implicit or explicit assumption that such intervention can correct market failure, have deployed a wide range of' corrective' controls and instruments. Price support and intervention buying, subsidized credit, minimum wage legislation, rationing systems and price controls have

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I5 5

all been widely employed — and not only in countries with leftist governments. Whether such intervention actually improves the lot of the poor and the powerless is often open to considerable doubt. Small farmers may feel unable to approach 'the authorities' for institutional support. Even if geographical distance is not a problem, other barriers may effectively preclude them from the formal sector: they may be unable to meet minimum quantity requirements, illiteracy may prevent their completing the required formalities or from becoming aware of their rights, or they may simply be overawed, for whatever reason, by officialdom. In these circumstances traders, often in league with underpaid local officials, can act as a conduit between the two sectors and in the process earn a level of profit that free and open competition would never permit.2 Price controls in particular severely distort market signals, creating a black market in which the price is generally higher than the precontrol price (reflecting an increase in trader's risks and costs and a drop in competition). This may also necessitate imports or loss-making production on state farms and imposes often severe budget and/or balance of payment strains. Even when such intervention is undertaken from the purest of motives, far from benefiting the rural disadvantaged, it is likely to work to their detriment. Since they are the ones who have insufficient food to see them through the hungry season, they will be the ones to suffer most from increased hungry-season prices on the black market. Subsidized food, credit, inputs and other goodies, on the other hand, have an invidious habit of finding their way into the possession of the more influential members of society - particularly, of course, individuals and groups capable of bringing down governments. + Communication barriers The problems of market failure and the difficulties in the way of making government interventions operate as intended are compounded by the poor state of communications within developing economies. Both poorly developed transportation links and difficulties in the way of transmitting and receiving information are communications problems, and the two are linked. Where literacy levels are low, information is transmitted mainly by word of mouth — not, of course, by telephone, but by people travelling from place to place. This means that, especially where transportation is poor, as in the remote areas of developing countries, information travels only slowly, reaches relatively few people and is always in danger of getting distorted and out of date. A

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poor transportation network also makes it difficult and expensive to move goods between markets, while poorly developed market intelligence systems hamper the growth of competition among traders, thus further contributing to market failure. These two factors together help perpetuate low post-harvest farm gate prices for agricultural produce, high food prices in the hungry season, and high prices for inputs in the planting season. Even where communications are least developed, the problems presented are rarely insuperable. However, the poorer the communications infrastructure the more barriers to market entry will tend to remain, thus ensuring that the few traders who can bridge the gap between different regions and between the modern and traditional sectors of the economy will be able to reap the benefits of monopoly or near-monopoly. Of the physical problems of communication, transportation difficulties are undoubtedly the most expensive to overcome, and, as will be argued below, they are a prime determinant of the location of agricultural activities in developing countries today. TRANSPORTATION COSTS AND AGRICULTURAL LOCATION

The best-known theory of agricultural location was developed by Johann Heinrich von Thiinen, who lived in eastern Germany in the 1820s. The level of transportation development there at that time was not so very different from that found in much of the developing world today.3 Von Thiinen's model, as a first approximation, postulated an ' isolated state' in which a central city was situated on a plain of uniform fertility, surrounded by concentric rings of agricultural production. Perishables that would spoil during lengthy transport were produced in the innermost ring. The next ring supported the production of timber, which had to be located close to the market because of its high transportation costs. Similarly the type of agriculture practised in successive rings was determined by the relative cost of transport, the outermost ring being given over to ranching, whose transportation costs are unusually low. Beyond this last ring (the 'margin of cultivation') farm-to-market transport costs made production for the market uneconomic. Having established his basic model, von Thiinen began a successive relaxation of its simplifying assumptions. A river running through the area provided much cheaper transport than the horse-and-cart, so that the production zones bulged out into parallel bands for some distance along its bank. Differences in soil fertility caused other bulges, with fertile areas having zones that were unusually

COMMUNICATION BARRIERS 157 wide and extending relatively far from the city. Secondary cities would create their own production zones, and so forth. The crucial point about this model, as far as the present discussion is concerned, is that agricultural location is determined far less by agro-ecological suitability than by farm-to-market transport costs. In the developed world, the growth of fast and relatively cheap transportation links has greatly reduced transaction costs. It is widely agreed that this, together with such innovations as refrigerated transport, has robbed the von Thiinen model of much of its relevance in the developed world today. Modern transportation has made it possible for enormous areas of the globe, highly complementary with respect to seasonality of production conditions, to be linked together through trade, and for their full production potential thus to be realized. This in turn has been largely responsible for freeing the markets of the developed world from seasonality in the availability of agricultural produce of all types. In the developing countries, on the other hand, there may be a number of major road and rail routes leading from the hinterland to the capital or the main ports, and onwards to the international economy. But there are few ' feeder' roads and rail lines linking into the main arterial routes and few, if any, roads or railways that run across them. Thus there are great tracts of territory over which transportation is limited to traditional wind- or musclepowered technologies. In these areas, because transportation is slow, uncertain and expensive, agricultural production patterns tend to be dominated by subsistence needs, or, where production is for the market, distance and transportation costs may be the main factors determining location, as in the von Thiinen model. Griffin (1973) has identified a number of developing country areas in South America which ' possess the general conditions described by von Thiinen'. Among these he includes the sections of the Argentine pampa around Buenos Aires and Rosario, the part of the Brazilian highlands that surround Brasilia, and the hinterland of Montevideo, capital of Uruguay. Turning to a detailed examination of the last of these, he proceeded to develop and test the hypothesis that a modified version of von Thiinen's model could explain the pattern of land use in Uruguay. Griffin's main modifications were to adjust for regional differences in soil fertility and transportation availability and to regard Montevideo, as the 'central market', despite its location on the coast. He justified this last adjustment on the grounds that Montevideo is the country's largest city, its only sea port of any size, and its financial and commercial centre. The best roads and railways are to be found in the

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Horticulture and truck farming Dairying Cereals Stock raising 31'

BRAZIL

32°

uenosJ Aires ^^v 35° 58° Figure 7.1. Uruguay: agricultural land-use classification, (a) Von Thiinen model; (b) actual land-use classes. (Source: Griffin 1973, Figure 5.)

hinterland of the capital, and all of Uruguay's arterial roads and railways lead to it. The country is bordered by the Atlantic Ocean to the south and east, by some of the least developed and most isolated parts of Brazil to the north and northeast, and by the then-unbridged Uruguay River (which forms the border with some of the most remote and underdeveloped parts of Argentina) to the west. Hence ' overall Uruguay qualifies as an economically isolated state' (ibid, p. 503). The

[

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59

Limit of """— intensity class 0

\ Mode \ la Plata luenos Aires 35° 58

20

40

54°

60 mile

OCEAN 35°

two maps comprising Figure 7.1 show respectively the agricultural land use 'rings' predicted by the modified version of von Thunen's model and the actual land use classes. Given all of the other variables that affect agricultural location, and which could not be included in the model, the correspondence between the two is quite remarkably close. For purposes of the present discussion it should particularly be noted that land use patterns that have developed primarily in response to the cost of transport between production areas and urban markets are most unlikely to permit advantage to be taken of seasonal complementarities in production possibilities between different rural areas.

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MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTIONS

SEASONALITY IN AVAILABILITY AND COST OF TRANSPORT

Distance is only one factor. A further seasonality problem emerges when the quality of transportation links in developing countries is considered. Many traditional routes are open only seasonally. In some circumstances transportation in the rainy season may be easier than at other times of year, as in the case of rivers which are deep enough to be navigable only during the rains. For the most part, however, it is the rainy season which is the most difficult one for transport. Dirt roads and tracks often become impassable, especially to wheeled traffic, as they become deeply mired and waterlogged. A traditional head-loading or pack animal route may be very difficult to use, or even unusable, in the rainy season because rivers cannot be forded or landslides block the trails. Even modern road and rail links in developing countries can be seasonal. These are generally designated ' all-weather', but to live up to this description in practice requires a standard of construction and maintenance that is difficult and expensive to achieve, and cannot therefore readily be sustained in poor countries. In addition, the extremely heavy rainstorms that typify the tropical rainy season place severe burdens on roads and railways. They can wash out their foundations, or cause landslides which destroy or bury them. (This last problem is one which is particularly acute in mountainous or hilly regions which have suffered from soil erosion.) Heavy floods can wash out bridges and ferry stages. Thus it is that the hungry season is also the season of most difficult transportation in many Third World areas, when the combination of high transportation costs and market failure inhibit the movement of supplies and thus make the situation worse than it would otherwise have been. The converse of this situation is that the seasonally more favoured parts of the country — parts which by virtue of differences in latitude, continentality, altitude, rainfall distribution, and so forth can produce a marketable crop at this time of year — are deprived of a potential market. It is an ironic fact of nature that while mountainous areas present the greatest potential for seasonal complementarities in agricultural production, they also present the most difficult transport problems. Differences in altitude, the 'rain shadow' effect, variations in relief, aspect, topography and so forth, all make for great heterogeneity in seasonal production potential. Yet transportation difficulties between mountainous areas, or between the mountains and the plains or the coast, are often immense. Road and rail construction is exceptionally

SEASONAL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS

l6l

expensive, as it requires numerous cuttings, bridges and tunnels, and long, winding routes to avoid excessive gradients (which in turn necessitates yet more bridges and tunnels). Rockfalls and landslides make maintenance unusually expensive. Rivers are usually unnavigable because they are fast-flowing, turbulent and rocky, and often have waterfalls. Air transport, even when not ruled out on grounds of cost, is unusually hazardous, as thin mountain air and unpredictable air currents make flying difficult and dangerous. This is especially so during the rainy season, because of storms, increased turbulence and often poor visibility. At the other end of the scale, even transportation by porter and pack animal in mountainous regions is arduous, tortuous, and correspondingly expensive - again most especially in the rainy season. • Seasonal price fluctuations The twin problems of high pre-harvest food prices for the consumer and low post-harvest commodity prices for the farmer have been mentioned several times in the present discussion. The typical pattern is for price to drop steeply after the harvest and then only gradually to recover. The magnitude of the post-harvest slump, and the rate and smoothness of the subsequent recovery are influenced by many factors, including the type of produce (perishable, semi-perishable, nonperishable), length of growing period in relation to growing season, any seasonality there might be in demand, and the availability of acceptable substitutes. In a fully functioning market economy competition between traders would ensure that inter-seasonal price spread would reflect only seasonal variation in the costs and risks of production and transportation, the costs and risks of storage and those of geographical arbitrage. Conversely, if inter-seasonal price spreads significantly exceed these costs and risks, this is an important indicator of market failure. Figure 7.2 illustrates the difference between developed and developing countries in this respect, showing two sets of wheat prices averaged out over a number of years.4 In a developed market economy like the USA, such commodity prices change only slowly over the year and the spread between the annual minimum and maximum levels is only a few percentage points (seven per cent in this case). Compare this with the pattern for the same crop in a developing country, Nepal. Here, the wheat harvest, which takes place in March and April, is followed by a quite precipitous fall in prices: an average 18 percentage points in a

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DISTORTIONS

110-

105 •Jan FebMar AprMayJun Jul Aug Sep OctNovDec

85 J Figure 7.2. Seasonal fluctuation in retail wheat prices in two countries (de-trended data). = Nepal; —— • • • • • = USA. (Sources: calculated and drawn from data in HMG/N (1985 and 1988) and adapted from Kohls and Downey 1972, Figure 10-7.)

single month. The build-up in prices towards the next harvest then varies about a steeply rising trend. Not all of the variation about this trend can readily be explained (there is considerable year-to-year and inter-district variation), but one peak that occurs every year is the one in October—November. This is the wheat sowing season in Nepal, and this produces a surge in demand for grain at a time of year when supply is in the process of drying up. Large seasonal fluctuations in the prices even of non-perishables like wheat, are very common in developing countries. Thus, for example, Chaudhury has shown a sixteen point inter-seasonal spread in the prices of coarse rice in Bangladesh (1981, Figure 3.6). Moreover, the national averages conceal even greater fluctuation in the rural areas, for urban prices, especially of staples, tend to be kept relatively stable. Returning to the case of Nepal, Shivakoti and Pokharel (1989) found that in one rural area of that country (not at all a remote one), the price spread for wheat across the year was not the 18 per cent national average shown in Figure 7.2, but 30 per cent. The equivalent figures for paddy and maize were higher still: 38 and 43 per cent respectively (ibid, Table 10). The reasons for this type of pattern are well-known. Small farmers, pressed by urgent cash needs, are obliged to sell off their produce

THE CREDIT MARKET

163

immediately after the harvest, when the sudden increase in supply, together with lack of competition in local markets and poor communications with markets at secondary and tertiary levels, helps to drive prices relentlessly downwards. A similar set of forces combine to produce high seed prices in the sowing season and high food prices in the pre-harvest season. An efficient rural credit market could play a crucial role in reducing the amplitude of this seasonal price cycle. In particular, the shortage of capital which precludes on-farm storage could be eased by such a system. Unfortunately, this is in many countries a prime example of an area in which both market failure and largely unsuccessful policy intervention have combined to prevent the realization of existing potential.

•

The credit market

Half a century ago, after serving on numerous government commissions investigating the problems of small farmers, the distinguished Indian lawyer, Sir M. Azizul Huque, wrote of the major cash crop of his native Bengal: Jute, being the only money-crop of importance in the jute-growing districts, every one regards its harvest time as the season for collections. The landlord, the mahajan, the credit banks, the local authorities, in short, creditors of all degrees and ranks - all at the same time put pressure on the grower for the collection of their dues; the grower is thus confronted all at once by his creditors and in the absence of adequate and regular credit facilities, he is compelled to meet his liabilities by bringing all his jute at one time to the market. 'Buy jute in Puja time' is now a tradition with the trade. . . . The mills have invariably a large surplus stock purchased from previous years' crop and the trade is, thus, in a position to bargain on its own terms (Huque 1939, pp. 63-4). This passage, give or take only a few details, could, with equal justification, be written again today of many crops in many developing areas. It contains three points of crucial relevance to the present discussion. The first is the concentration of repayment demands in the immediate post-harvest period when prices are at their annual low. The second is that the example given is a non-perishable commodity that can be stored for several years: even so, the grower has to forego the option of storing it even for a season, until the price rises. A combination of a cash squeeze and the large buffer stocks held by the

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mills enables the buyers to maintain a much larger differential than is justified by the cost and risk of storage alone. Finally, the problem hinges on ' the absence of adequate and regular credit facilities'. The two adjectives are important. Obviously the jute growers had some access to credit (otherwise they would not be indebted), but not for the immediate post-harvest period. In this sense credit availability was not regular. Presumably the supply of credit from the ' credit banks' was insufficient to meet the demand, or the growers would not have had recourse to moneylenders. These entrepreneurs, even today in parts of what was then Bengal, typically charge interest at ten per cent per month. At such rates, even if post-harvest credit were available it is doubtful if the inter-seasonal price spread would have been sufficient to justify the cost of using it. Loans from moneylenders are taken only as a measure of desperation. In a properly functioning credit market such high interest rates would attract an increase in the supply of credit, thus causing interest rates to fall. In this sense credit availability, even from the informal sector, was not adequate. If these problems obtain in the case of a non-perishable commodity like jute, they obviously apply with even greater force to semi-perishables and perishables. Nor are they limited to cash crops. When loans are repayable in kind, interest can be levied in kind also. The credit market in developing countries is typically dualistic, with a modern formal credit sector coexisting with a traditional non-formal one. The latter is characterized by much high interest rates and harsher default penalties than the former. Both segments of the market are distorted, but for very different reasons. DISTORTIONS IN THE NON-FORMAL SECTOR

To operate as a successful moneylender requires a great deal of local knowledge through which to assess who is, and who is not, creditworthy. ' Credit-worthiness' in this context may mean the possession of adequate physical collateral, but it may also be judged by much less tangible criteria. An individual may be credit-worthy simply because he or she has a reputation for uprightness, honesty and diligence; or perhaps because of an expected inheritance or some other hope of future gain; or because in the event of default he or she will be available for bonded labour. How many banks could accept collateral of this sort? Even an outside moneylender would not have the necessary knowledge to make an informed judgement. The moneylender also occupies a special place in many traditional

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165

societies, one which is usually an effective barrier to market entry. On the one hand, moneylending may be socially restricted to a particular caste, or the moneylender may be a locally influential person whose displeasure few would wish to incur by setting up in competition. (Even if there were competition, the inter-linked nature of many rural markets might well deter a potential borrower from seeking loans elsewhere.) At the other extreme the profession of moneylending is anathema in many societies, a fact which will also tend to keep the level of competition low. This is most obviously true of Islamic societies, where usury is regarded as a grievous sin, but in other societies too the moneylender is often something of a social outcast. DISTORTIONS IN THE FORMAL SECTOR

The formal rural credit market in developing countries is distorted, largely because it is subsidized. 5 Nominal interest rates are low, typically in the ten to fifteen per cent per annum range. Real rates are lower still, sometimes even negative, since most developing countries suffer from inflation rates of at least this magnitude. Moreover, in many cases provisions for seizure of collateral in the event of default are not rigorously enforced, and the level of bad debt is correspondingly high. The following conclusions, reached after a wide-ranging investigation of the rural financial markets of Jamaica, will not surprise those familiar with similar markets elsewhere in the developing world (except, perhaps, for the refreshing candour with which they are stated). Rural financial markets in Jamaica are not functioning effectively. This is evidenced by the meager rate of participation by farmers in the formal segment of the market. Despite the large array of formal institutions and alleged small farmer programmes operating in the market, very few farmers have loans and that credit which was extended appears to have been rationed by non-market means. These circumstances indicate the ineffectiveness of the supply leading credit policy adopted by the government for the Jamaican agricultural sector. One reason for the ' rationing' of borrowers is the imposition of a low and rigid interest rate ceiling in the face of mounting inflationary pressures, a common feature of financial markets in many low income countries. (Hence) lenders are unable to account for differing levels of risks and costs inherent in lending to different groups of borrowers. Similarly, they are unable to make interest rate adjustments to cover varying per unit costs of administering different size loans. The result of these limitations is the emergence of implicit or hidden charges on loans and lending criteria which leads to the rationing of some borrowers out of the market (Heffernan and Pollard 1983, pp 36-7).

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MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTIONS

Naturally it will be the larger and more influential farmers who are able to benefit from credit rationing by 'non-market means', while those who are ' rationed out of the market' are left with recourse only to the non-formal sector. Such is the common experience of developing countries. The small farmer does not receive credit at the nominal interest rate simply because at such a rate the demand for credit so far outstrips supply that available funds are, in effect, siphoned off into a black market via such mechanisms as 'implicit or hidden charges on loans'. As far as the small farmer is concerned, the effect of these, together with bureaucratic delays that are inseparable from any institutionalized lending programme, is to drive the true cost of formal credit upwards towards the levels charged by moneylenders. This last point is well illustrated by the experience of Bolivia, as reported by Ladman (1984). The Bolivian Agricultural Bank (BAB) operated a lending programme in the Upper Valley of the Cochabamba in the late 1970s. A parallel non-formal scheme was operated by local moneylenders. The average size of loan was US$3695 and US$480 respectively - from which fact it would seem that once again it is the larger farmers who receive institutional loans and the smaller ones who have to rely on the non-formal sector. (In fact small farmers were effectively excluded by a high minimum loan threshold.) The nominal rates of interest were 13 and 48 per cent in the formal and non-formal sectors respectively. However, in the case of transaction costs - in this case the sum of various fees and the value of time lost by farmers attending to formalities — the relative positions were reversed. Transaction costs on a BAB loan totalled US$135.95 (3.7 per cent of the average loan), while those on a moneylender loan averaged US$4.35 (0.9 per cent). Moreover, these costs do not vary significantly with size of loan, so that while formal sector transaction costs would have added only 3.7 per cent to a loan of US$3695, they would add 28.3 per cent to one of US$480, bringing the total cost of such a loan to within a few percentage points of the total cost of a moneylender loan. In this case we have no information as to any hidden charges on formal sector loans. CREDIT AND SEASONAL CASH FLOWS

In order properly to analyze the role that credit can play in assisting to reduce seasonality, it would be necessary to have cash flow data from farm or labourer households over a period of at least one year. Such

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data are seldom available, but an exception is provided by the farm household results of a detailed credit survey conducted in northeast Thailand (Meyer and Alicbusan 1984). The study produced monthly cash flow statements for 'borrower' and 'nonborrower' households respectively. A ' nonborrower' household was, for the purposes of this analysis, denned as one which borrowed less than 5 00 baht (approximately US$25) in the year in question. Farms in both groups were of less than eight acres (3.2 hectares), which is fairly small by Thai standards. Non-farm cash receipts were important income elements in both cases, deriving mainly from harvest work on neighbouring large farms. The borrower households used non-formal sources of credit, and the data for this group show ' the classic cash-flow pattern expected in typical agricultural credit projects' (ibid, p. 30). Borrowing was heavy in the planting seasons of October and December, when 60 per cent of operating expenses are incurred. Income generation was similarly concentrated, with 75 per cent of annual cash receipts being obtained in January and February, following the sale of the rice and kenaf crops. The differences between the 'borrower' and 'nonborrower' households are instructive: Total net cash farm income was higher and more evenly spread throughout the year for nonborrowers. Nonborrowers had a more complex combination of enterprises, including cassava and sugarcane, that generated income more frequently during the year. Nonborrowers also earned more nonfarm income. Surprisingly, in spite of their higher income, nonborrowers had lower total family living expenses than borrowers, and these expenses were somewhat less concentrated in the postharvest months. These households made payments on loans received in previous years during months other than postharvest (ibid, p. 31). Some very clear points emerge from Meyer and Alicbusan's analysis. The most basic conclusion is that the group that had to rely on credit (non-formal credit yet again) was the one with: (a) lower average income and (b) relatively high seasonal income fluctuation. The ' nonborrower' group followed a number of counter-seasonal strategies which were outlined in earlier chapters: they had complementary onfarm enterprises (thus spreading workloads and production peaks) and had more off-farm sources of income to complement income earned on the farm. The point about the lower total family living expenses of the 'nonborrower' group is an interesting one. The 'borrower' group incurred more than fifty per cent of its annual living expenses in the period January to April, which 'is the period when major religious

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festivals are held and is also the period just after rice harvest when households have the most cash' (ibid, p. 30). It is possible, therefore, that the 'nonborrower' households adopt a further counter-seasonal strategy, that of simply husbanding their resources more carefully throughout the year. What emerges clearly from this survey is that credit - even non-formal credit - can play a major role in permitting households in the low-mean—high-variance income category to cope with a seasonally varying cash flow. Although the above authors were unable to cite other case studies which had examined farmers' cash flows in similar detail, they did report on two studies in the Philippines which supplied evidence supporting the above conclusions. In one study, monthly cash receipts were found to range from the peso equivalent of US$48 to $176, while monthly expenditure was equivalent to $53 to $211. Even in an area that was relatively favoured with social services, only one-third of the loans came from institutional sources (Hayami 1979). The other study was one of the very few which include the households of agricultural labourers. These households were frequent borrowers of small amounts, entirely from non-formal sources. Loans were mainly repaid during the two weeks of the year in which they received wage goods (rice) in amounts which far exceeded their consumption. One landless household borrowed in a total of eighteen different weeks over six deficit periods of the year which together totalled twenty-six weeks. The deficit at other times was made up from non-farm work and sales of livestock produce (Ledesma 1980). Finally, it must be added that the other side of this particular coin is often forgotten. Not only do low interest rates in the formal sector fail to help poor farmers and labourers with their seasonal cash flow problems, but they also hinder credit mobilization by offering low or negative real rates of interest to would-be savers. If rural financial markets were functioning effectively they could help to smooth out seasonal income fluctuations as outlined earlier. It is sometimes argued that the non-formal credit market is in fact operating efficiently and the apparently high rates of interest it charges no more than reflect the high administrative costs and high risks of small scale rural lending. This argument is apparently bolstered by the manifest failures of the formal credit sector, which if it were delivering credit as promptly and as cheaply as intended, would long since have driven the moneylender out of business. Without becoming embroiled in this particular discussion, one serious disadvantage of the non-formal credit market should be clearly understood. The efficiency of the non-formal credit market,

BARRIERS TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE

169

depending as it does on highly localized knowledge and close borrower-lender contact, must decline rapidly as distance between the two parties increases. On the other hand, since the degree of seasonal complementarity between regions of a country is typically in direct proportion to their remoteness from each other, the formal credit sector has a crucial role to play if complementarities in seasonal cash flows are effectively to be exploited on a national scale. + Barriers to international trade The problems caused by market failure extend from the domestic to the international arena. In combination with the special problems of international trade, they prevent most developing countries from capitalizing to any significant extent on their comparative advantage in terms of complementary production timing and low labour costs. Transportation problems within the developing country can cause delays and increase cost, unless the producing area is either close to a major sea- or airport or has good communications links to one. Even then, distance to the potential importing country can make exporting uneconomic. Obviously there are developing countries which are close to the developed world, and by-and-large it is these countries which engage in whatever seasonal exports there are from the developing to the developed world. Egypt, for example, supplies winter vegetables to West European countries, while Mexico supplies seasonal fruit to the USA. With some high-value crops greater distances can be covered, although air freight must normally be used. Winter cut flowers fall into this category, with Thailand and Colombia supplying large quantities to the West European and US markets respectively. These examples apart, such trade is not as highly developed as it might be, given the potential that exists for seasonal complementarity in production. Moreover, only a small number of developing countries are involved and they are not, generally speaking, among the poorest. Transportation costs are not the only barriers to international trade. One of the market failures within the developing world is a poorlydeveloped system of market intelligence — certainly by international standards. This makes it difficult for the Third World trader to respond quickly and flexibly to favourable market opportunities. Health regulations in the importing countries and bureaucratic procedures in both developed and developing countries can result in delays that will turn fresh produce into unsaleable mush. Consumer resistance to a change in source of supply might require a lengthy and costly period

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Table 7.1. Coefficient of seasonally and trend in seasonality for grains and fodders in irrigated and non-irrigated areas of Pakistan, 1973-84

Irrigated areas Wheat grain Maize grain Dry fodder Green fodder Rainfed areas

Coefficient of seasonalitya

Time trend in coefficient of seasonalityb

114

-1.73**

13^

-3-35*

142

-4.42**

160

-5.68*

118

— 1.16 n s

133 148

-3.39*

161

— 0.03 ns

c

Wheat grain Maize grain Dry fodder Green fodder

— 0.35 ns

Notes: ** Significant at 1 per cent level of probability, * Significant at 5 per cent level of probability, ns Not significant. " Coefficient of seasonality = the ratio of the grand seasonal index (GSI) for the three peak months divided by the GSI for the three slack months. The GSI is the per cent deviation of the average price (de-trended) for each month from the twelve-month moving average. "Based on linear time-trend regressions on the coefficient of seasonality calculated for each year. c Data available 1973-1981 only. Source: Byerlee and Iqbal (1986) Table 3.

of both advertising and artificially low prices until a reputation for good quality can be established in the market. And even were these barriers overcome, south—north exports might still be precluded by 'anti-dumping' regulations in the potential importing country. Finally, it must be observed that rich-country dealers in agricultural produce are not always content to leave it to Third World farmers to decide what, how much, and when, to produce. In their search for reliable, low-cost, out-of-season supplies, some sectors of the developed world's huge food industry have sought to integrate vertically, expanding from retail and wholesale distribution into production. A study by Feder of the Mexican strawberry industry - or, rather, what he calls 'the US strawberry industry located in Mexico' —reveals the surprising fact that just eight US brokers control practically all of

GROUNDS FOR OPTIMISM?

171

Mexico's strawberry-growing industry, 98 to 99 per cent of whose output is exported to the United States. One broker alone in 1974-75 controlled no less than 39 per cent of production of fresh strawberries in Mexico. • Grounds for optimism? If the present chapter has made for gloomy reading, there is still no reason to suppose that the problems are insuperable. Communications can — and are — being improved; ' hinterlands' are being opened up6 and competition increased. Even government intervention can sometimes prove effective in reducing seasonality. Support for this view is contained in a study of price seasonality in Pakistan (Byerlee and Iqbal 1986). This is a country whose economic performance had been well above the Third World average in the years preceding the study, with a national income growth rate of around seven per cent and a per capita GNP equivalent to almost US$400 in the mid-1980s. Pakistan had by then, in official parlance, reached the transitional phase between a 'low income' and a 'middle income' country. The study in question is unusual in economics in that, not only did it focus specifically on seasonality as an issue in development, but it also looked at trends in seasonality over time. Price trends of four agricultural commodities, wheat grain, maize grain, dry fodder and green fodder, were examined in both irrigated and rainfed areas of the country. While seasonal price fluctuations were fairly pronounced, it was found that maize and wheat prices move in opposite directions. This is because the former is a summer, and the latter a winter, crop. The ability and willingness of consumers (for example, the poultry feed industry) to switch between these grains is probably at least partly responsible for the fact that seasonality in these two series was found to be relatively low. Second, seasonality of wheat prices was found to be substantially lower than that of maize, because the former 'is reduced by the government policy of maintaining a fixed procurement price throughout the year, which discourages private stock holdings of wheat' (ibid, p. 15). The share of wheat which was marketed under the procurement system was, moreover, found to be increasing. For each of the four commodities the authors calculated a coefficient of seasonality and a time trend of that coefficient for both irrigated and rainfed areas. The results are presented in Table 7.1. Note that for all four commodities in the irrigated areas, and for one commodity in the rainfed areas, there has been a statistically significant decline in

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seasonality of prices. In the case of fodder, particularly green fodder, the reduction is dramatic. The authors point to three factors which they think explain this. First, fodder markets have generally become more developed and more integrated, with improved roads and transport services permitting it to be transported over a wider area. It is now common, they explain, to see both green and dry fodder being transported from irrigated to rainfed areas. Second, improved supplies of irrigation water, especially from tubewells, have enabled planting and harvesting of fodder crops to be staggered over a longer period and have thus reduced seasonality in fodder supplies. Finally, the use of oilseed cake as a substitute for green fodder has undoubtedly grown, alongside increasing rural incomes. Since the price of oilseed cake shows little or no seasonal fluctuation, increased use of this feed should help smooth seasonal fluctuations in both green and dry fodder prices (ibid, pp. 15-16). Several of the points emerging from this study provide some grounds for optimism regarding the prospects for adoption of marketbased counter-seasonal measures in developing countries. It shows that price seasonality can be reduced by improving the climate in which the market operates — particularly through improved transportation links which bring areas with complementary production patterns into direct contact. Even government intervention can, in one area at least, reduce the degree of seasonal price movements. Moreover, the fact that increased rural incomes widen the range of choice with respect to seasonal produce again suggests that as development proceeds, more and more ways will be found of reducing seasonality. Finally, the study clearly illustrates the potential role that technological change can play in reducing seasonality. This is the subject to which we will now turn.

8 Special problems of developing countries: II. Technological change in a changing environment

I N MANY RURAL PARTS of the Third World, the counter-seasonal technologies, techniques and strategies which people have developed over the millennia, are coming increasingly under threat. The sources of this threat are many and varied, but they can usefully be grouped under two broad and interacting categories: resource depletion and technological change. At one time it would have seemed strange to describe the latter as a threat, when it was widely perceived as a solution - often as the solution - to the problems of poor countries. Indeed it would still be very difficult to envisage any sustained degree of economic development without such change. However, the problems of inappropriate technology in developing countries are now recognized as being very real. The arguments are also exceptionally well documented, and there is no need to repeat them here. Like poverty itself, however, the whole issue of technological choice in poor countries has a seasonal aspect that is not at all fully understood or appreciated. Before going on to consider this aspect, however, it is worth examining briefly the seasonality implications of the background of steady depletion of agricultural and other resources against which technological change must take place, for this is a context that makes the devising of appropriate counter-seasonal technologies at once more difficult and more pressingly urgent.

• Resource depletion The term ' resource depletion' is used here in a broad sense to cover a number of related problems. The depletion in question may be quantitative, as when non-renewable resources are extracted or land or

174 TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT water are taken out of agriculture and put to other uses. Alternatively it may be qualitative (i.e. the resource base remains in existence but degenerates), as when cultivation exposes soils to erosion, a reduction in fallow periods or an increase in monoculture depletes the fertility of the land, forests are cut or grasslands grazed faster than they can regenerate. Resource depletion may also be relative to population, rather than absolute, as when population growth occurs on a static resource base. A more usual situation, however, is for population to continue to grow upon a declining resource base. On-farm research in developing countries has by now demonstrated quite clearly that, taking due account of the degree of risk and uncertainty associated with particular crop and livestock enterprises, the typical traditional system is quite finely-tuned to production possibilities in the local environment.1 This fine-tuning makes due allowance for seasonal variation in such factors as resource availability and requirements, production possibilities and the availability of foodstuffs or income from various farm and non-farm sources. Traditional systems may minimize, rather than eliminate, seasonal deprivation, but they are probably the best balance that could be achieved given the complex nature of traditional farmers' environments, the mutiplicity of their objectives and the limited scale and scope of the technological and economic resources available to them. However, these balances were achieved through experimentation and adaptation in a relatively stable environment over a great many generations. In more recent times the twin pressures of population growth and economic change have increasingly come to disturb this stability. In the long term, economic development — through such vehicles as improved communications, market integration and industrialization can be expected to reduce the problem of seasonality. However, in the shorter term such structural shifts in the economy create their own problems. As far as the present discussion is concerned, two are of particular importance. First, it generates rapidly growing demand for energy, industrial raw materials and foreign exchange, and corresponding pressures to extract natural resources without regard to sustainability. Second, it leads to the conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural purposes. The land area in question may not be particularly large, but it is often prime farm land, so that the effect of its alienation from agriculture is disproportionately large. 'Prime' in this context can mean one, or both, of two things. First, the land may be unusually fertile. For example, in hilly areas the most fertile land is

RESOURCE DEPLETION 175 on the valley bottoms, and when hydro-electric schemes are created these are precisely the areas that go under water. More generally speaking, fertile areas are typically areas of relatively high population density and high income concentration. Such places have often historically become the foci of urban development — the ' fertile crescent' in the Middle East being the classic case. Thus, paradoxically, the land that is most suitable for agriculture may well be the prime candidate for conversion to industrial, commercial, residential and other urban uses. Second, even relatively infertile land may be highly desirable for agriculture if communications are good, for this makes for cheap transport and good market connections, and hence relatively low input costs and relatively high farm gate prices. It can also reduce seasonality (for the reasons discussed in the previous chapter), for even an imperfectly functioning market is better than no market at all. Of course land that has good communications is also best suited to nonagricultural uses also, and is likely to come under steady and increasing pressure for conversion to such uses. None of the above, it should immediately be stated, is meant to serve as an argument against economic development — or even, necessarily, against the conversion of prime agricultural land to other uses. Not only is a movement away from heavy dependence upon agriculture and other primary industries a necessary part of an overall strategy of reducing poverty: it will also help reduce seasonality in the long run, as it has done in the developed world. However, in the shorter run, when the rate of land alienation is high and the benefits generated by the associated investment still a long way in the future, the net effect is to worsen the resource pressures brought about by population growth. Where agricultural land is scarce, as is increasingly becoming the case in the developing world, the precise and combined effects of population growth and economic development on natural resource depletion will depend to some extent on the system of inheritance. Where primogeniture is the norm, population growth will create increasingly unequal land distribution; where inheritance laws subdivide land equally among the children (or at least among the sons), it will produce increasingly small and fragmented holdings.2 Both systems produce landlessness, for even equal subdivision means that some holdings will eventually become sub-marginal, but primogeniture will obviously create it more quickly. Either way, population growth in the absence of expanding employment horizons will produce a growing number of marginal farmers and landless agricultural

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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

labourers whose mean income is most likely to be both lower and subject to greater seasonal variation than that of earlier generations. Even where there is unoccupied land available for settlement, it can reasonably be assumed that the best land will already have been occupied and that any new land brought under cultivation will tend to be increasingly marginal for this purpose. 'Marginal' is another concept that can mean one or more of several things. It can mean that the land is relatively infertile, and hence produces less per unit of labour. The area may be one which poses a security risk, or is subject to endemic diseases for which new settlers have no acquired immunity. In such cases both the quality of life and the productivity of labour are likely to be impaired. A further possibility is that climatic conditions are less predictable than in the more settled areas, so that risk and uncertainty are increased. Marginality in all of the above senses has at least indirect implications for seasonality also. However, it can also have a more direct effect on seasonal variation in production and employment. Seasonality will be increased if, for example, the soils in the newly settled areas have relatively poor moisture-retaining capability, if the irrigation potential is poor, if they are more than usually liable to seasonal inundation or storm damage, or if they have an unusually marked dry season. Even in the unlikely event that the new and the old settled areas are equal in all physical respects, or that there are mutually compensating advantages and disadvantages, the new lands will still be more marginal with respect to seasonality if, as is likely to be the case, they are more remote from the market. (If they suffer from none of the above disadvantages it is difficult to see why they should be uninhabited.) Complicating all of the above problems is the fact that newly settled areas by definition have little history of cultivation, so that the settlers will have no traditional body of wisdom concerning their production capabilities, the potential for reducing the seasonality of output and resource needs, and, perhaps most important of all, their conservation requirements. This can be serious enough when the land is relatively stable, but where ecologically fragile lands, particularly those in hilly or mountainous areas, are brought under cultivation for the first time the results can be catastrophic. The vegetation that covers a virgin hillside inhibits surface water run-off and encourages percolation, so that the undisturbed, humus-rich soil is able to absorb rainy season precipitation, storing the water and releasing it gradually over the subsequent dry season. Deforestation, overgrazing and the clearing of natural vegetation for agriculture exposes the bare soil to heavy tropical rainstorms, so that the run-off rate increases dramatically and with it

RESOURCE DEPLETION

177

soil erosion. Streams that were once clear and perennial are transformed into raging, muddy torrents in the wet season which dry up shortly after the rains stop. Thus seasonality of water supply increases significantly. In addition, as the topsoil is washed away, soil depth is reduced and the proportion of humus declines. This causes the soil's moisture retention capacity to fall, and with it the potential to support dry-season plant life is correspondingly reduced. There are traditional techniques for countering these problems, the most important being the construction of land terraces. This technology is both ancient and widespread throughout the upland areas of the entire developing world, but the techniques of proper terrace construction are neither simple nor widely-known. They are most unlikely to be familiar to in-migrants from flatter regions, and settlers from such regions are not likely to learn these techniques through trialand-error in time to prevent serious soil erosion. The adverse seasonality effects of ill-planned settlement on fragile lands can extend far beyond the settlers and their immediate families. The problems caused to economic minorities, such as hunter-gatherers and nomadic pastoralists who are displaced by such settlement, were discussed in Chapter 3. The effects of soil erosion in hilly areas extend further still. Areas far downstream can suffer increased wet-season flooding (and the consequent destruction of crops, livestock, farm- and field structures), river erosion and the impairment of soil fertility through the deposition of salt or sand. The corresponding dry-season problem is loss of irrigation potential. A global economic atmosphere in which technological change has become the norm at once provides an opportunity and poses a serious danger to developing countries: to their economies in general and to their disadvantaged citizens in particular. In earlier chapters reference has been made to the means by which appropriate technology can be instrumental in easing the burden of seasonality in the agricultural sectors of both developed and developing countries. There is no reason to suppose that equally appropriate technology cannot continue to do as much for developing countries, but there are growing difficulties. Per capita resource depletion is continually altering, and in many cases marginalizing, the environment for which new technologies must be designed. Such a situation would severely test the research and development capabilities of a developed country, and, of course the R & D capacities of poor countries are embryonic. Worse still, the value of such capability as does exist is diminished by the fact that most of the skilled R & D professionals have been trained in developed countries, with a corresponding inculcation of norms and values

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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

that are of questionable relevance to their home environments. While some have succeeded in overcoming these biases, others have acquired, not only a set of skills, but also a set of attitudes towards technology, which can be quite out of keeping with both the resources and the problems of their own countries. The literature on technological transfer and' appropriate technology' in developing country agriculture has tended to concentrate on mechanization, for it is here that the main threat of labour displacement is seen to exist. Non-mechanical technologies, such as seeds and fertilizer, have tended to be regarded, at least by economists, as relatively benign. However, the situation is more complex than this simple bipolar view would suggest. + Agricultural mechanization Much of the agricultural machinery that is available from developed countries is 'lumpy'. That is, it performs a large number of separate operations as a single sequential process, is of a large minimum size, or both. From the viewpoint of peak season labour displacement in the Third World the most dangerous piece of equipment is probably the combine harvester, a machine which reaps, threshes and separates grain from chaff (some models also bundle the straw) in a single operation. These machines can pose a particularly serious threat because in most developing countries the harvest is traditionally the period of peak labour demand: not only is there a great deal of work to be done in a relatively short period of time, but farmers also have the means to pay for outside help. The extent of labour displacement by combines can be very great indeed. In a study of mechanization in Ethiopia, the present author found that a fairly modest combine like a Massey Fergusson 510 could harvest a hectare of wheat in one to one-and-a-half hours, whereas traditional methods (sickle reaping, ox-treading and winnowing) employed 36 to 54 person-days per hectare.3 Since the combine can be operated 24 hours a day, even allowing for travelling time between fields and for some 'down' time, each combine could displace up to a thousand labourers. A study (Laxminarayan et al. 1981) conducted in those parts of India in which combines are most widely used, that is Punjab, Harayana, western Uttar Pradesh and northern Rajasthan, looked specifically at the impact of these machines on the employment of seasonal labour migrants. It concluded that adoption of the combine led to a 95 per cent cut in harvest employment, mostly among hired labourers, and 'a practical elimination of migratory labour coming from labour surplus

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION 179 areas, which means blocking of avenues of employment for them outside their states' {ibid p. 173). The authors went on to estimate that in Punjab alone if the wheat and paddy areas of big farmers (four hectares or more) were harvested by combine it would entail the displacement of no less than 42 million person-days of hired labour, of which 15 per cent would come from the permanent labour force, 3 3 per cent from local casual labourers and 5 2 per cent from seasonal migrants (ibid). Against this it was found that the introduction of combines contributed nothing to either farm productivity or cropping intensity. The technology was adopted only by the larger farmers and purely to ease the management burden of recruiting and supervising large gangs of casual labour. Despite this evidence of technological inappropriateness, the number of combines operating in India continued to grow, from an estimated 1 985 in the year the Laxminarayan et al. study was published, to 2960 in 1985 - an increase of almost fifty per cent in just four years (FAO 1985 a, 1987). Problems of labour displacement resulting from mechanization have prompted many to argue for 'selective mechanization', targeted only at operations in which there is a 'labour bottleneck'. The argument runs roughly as follows. Suppose, for example, that in a particular area the harvest was a time of full employment. Labour supply for the harvest could not therefore be increased. In such circumstances farmers would be unwilling to adopt yield-increasing technologies (or, where land is plentiful, increase cultivated area) because labour bottlenecks at the harvest would make it impossible to get the additional crop in on time. Here the introduction of machinery which displaced labour in a harvest operation such as threshing would make labour available for other harvest operations, thus easing the bottleneck. This would in turn permit farmers to increase yields or cultivate a larger area and thus increase production. This increase in production would also increase demand for labour during cultivation, weeding and other operations, where labour demand was previously below peak levels, so as to both compensate for any loss of employment in the harvest season and reduce seasonality of labour demand. The logic is seductive, and in certain circumstances it may also be perfectly valid. In other circumstances, however, the underlying assumptions are glib and shallow, carrying inherent dangers for the disadvantaged. In particular the argument too easily assumes that (a) peak season labour supply cannot be expanded, and (b) loss of peak season earnings will be compensated by increased earnings in the offseason. These assumptions deserve some scrutiny, for they are central to the entire 'selective mechanization' issue.

l8o

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

SELECTIVE MECHANIZATION AND 'LABOUR BOTTLENECKS'

The first assumption strongly implies that available labour is limited to that in the meso-environment. Even where this is so, any individual farmer could increase his own supply by paying above-average wage rates. However, market failures of the type discussed in Chapter 7 would normally prevent such competition, so that the question would be whether overall labour supply to agriculture in a particular mesoenvironment could be increased. This hinges on the elasticity (degree of responsiveness) of supply with respect to changes in the wage rate. If a given wage increase produces a less-than-proportionate increase in supply, the latter is said to be inelastic with respect to wage rate. Absolute inelasticity means that supply does not respond at all to increases in the wage rate. (Some once went as far as to argue that the elasticity of peak season labour supply is actually negative, but there is little empirical evidence to support this view, and the complexities will not therefore be pursued. For a discussion see Higgins (1968).) If the marginal product of labour is higher than that of other (existing) factors of production in a particular locality and season (see Figure 1.3), and if labour supply cannot be expanded, then labour availability places a ceiling on production and there is, unequivocally, a labour bottleneck. Even if labour supply is only relatively inelastic, it would still be legitimate to speak of a labour bottleneck if the required wage increases were so great as to make production expansion unprofitable for the farmer. Local labour supply may well be fully employed at the peak season, and hence inelastic with respect to wage rate, but this is not the only source of labour, for, as was shown in Chapter 6, seasonal labour migration within and between developing countries is a large-scale, and evidently increasing, phenomenon. It was also shown that the returns to such migration are often quite meagre, probably representing only a marginal premium over the opportunity- and transaction costs of migration. Far from supporting the inelastic labour supply hypothesis, the extensiveness, complexity and length of seasonal migration channels, together with the evolving nature of these flows, suggests that developing country labour supply is in fact highly flexible and responsive to economic opportunity. Labour supply to a particular district would, however, tend to be inelastic if either the opportunity costs of seasonal migration were high (because the peak labour period was the same over a large surrounding area), transaction costs were high, or — and this is very important — market failure meant that existing employment opportunities were not widely known. It is

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

l8l

impossible to generalize, for the actual circumstances will obviously vary from country to country and between areas within countries, but before it is glibly assumed that labour supply is so inelastic as to justify mechanization the possibility of increasing the labour supply through seasonal migration ought to be investigated. (This is one of the reasons why macro-level studies of the type suggested in the Appendix are so necessary.) It is the present author's experience that when the term 'labour bottleneck' is used in practice - especially, it seems, by machinery manufacturers, agricultural engineers, some agricultural scientists, the owners of relatively large farms, and certain agricultural policy makers - there is often an implicit, and highly subjective view, not that agricultural labour supply is necessarily /welastic, but that it is simply not elastic enough. Indeed, in discussions with colleagues and policy makers one often gains the impression that if an unlimited supply of labour is not forthcoming at the going wage rate, then a 'labour bottleneck' is presumed to exist and with it an overwhelming case for - at best - selective mechanization. There are many reasons why certain individuals should prefer a mechanical, to a labour-intensive, solution to a work-related problem. One pervasive reason is attitudinal: machines are modern, whereas 'unskilled' labour is old-fashioned. Such attitudes are strongly reinforced by considerations of status. Suppose, for example, that the cultivated area in a given locality could be profitably expanded, but only at the cost of agricultural labourers attaining a better bargaining position vis-a-vis farmers (who are normally of a higher social class, or even caste). Social pressures might well be applied, particularly by the larger farmers (who would have least need of increased income and most to lose from changes in the social hierarchy), to ensure that others maintained the going wage rate. In such circumstances there would indeed be a labour bottleneck at the peak period, but it would be one which had its roots in market failure, rather than an inelastic labour supply. Mechanization, selective or otherwise, in these circumstances would at once eliminate this ' bottleneck', reinforce existing hierarchical relationships, and provide those who acquired the machinery with a brand-new status symbol. Another reason is managerial. The supervision of large gangs of labourers can be a highly management-intensive task, and the larger the farm the greater the required level of management inputs. This is not a 'labour bottleneck', however, but rather a diseconomy of scale. One solution for the large farmer is, as in the case of combine harvesters in India, to reduce the required level of management inputs by

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TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

mechanization, even though this does not increase either land productivity or the area under cultivation. The management issue is particularly problematic for an absentee landlord, since absenteeism in itself means that the most highly-motivated manager is missing. Unfortunately for the agricultural labourer, the larger and more influential the landowner (and the absentee landowner is usually the most influential of all), the better is he or she placed to persuade policy makers that the production problem is one of peak season labour, as distinct from management, constraints, and that the solution is mechanization (selective or otherwise). Having said all of this, it must also be acknowledged that there may well be situations in which mechanization is a less expensive technology for the farmer than the labour-intensive alternative. This may be the case because the government has adopted a policy of favouring farm mechanization through various incentives and subsidies, such as relatively low import duties on agricultural machinery and spares, cheap credit for mechanization, free extension advice, and subsidies on fuel and lubricants. The arguments against this type of policy are as strong as they are well-known. However, even when interventions of this type are not there to load the economics in favour of mechanization, it is still possible that in a particular situation a relatively capital-intensive technology is, at market prices, less expensive than a more labour-intensive one, and that farmers would therefore be prepared to cultivate a larger area, and/or cultivate more intensively, if they were able to mechanize. In this case it would be very difficult to resist the argument that there is indeed a labour bottleneck, in the very real sense that reliance on labourintensive technology would constrain agricultural production. In these circumstances the issue becomes the very difficult one of equity versus productivity. In fact it is not even a straight contest between the two, for, were the cheaper technology to be adopted, some of the savings on production costs may well be passed on to the consumer, as increased food supply drives down prices. Such a development would certainly benefit the poor in general, although in the case of the agricultural labouring poor the loss of actual or potential peak season employment would probably more than offset the benefits of cheaper food. Other than the situation in which labour supply is very inelastic, the set of circumstances just described is the one in which selective mechanization is most likely to be justifiable in terms of easing a genuine labour bottleneck. Against this, to put the point crudely, the farmers' labour constraint is the labourers' golden opportunity, perhaps the only time when they can earn enough to see them through the next

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

I 83

slack season. Whether any increase in slack season employment would be sufficient to compensate for this loss of earnings would depend on two factors: first, the extent to which the increase in production also generated increased demand for casual labour (the adjective is crucially important), and second, the effect of the inter-seasonal switch in employment on inter-seasonal wage rates. The extent to which production actually expanded following selective mechanization would depend upon several factors. Prominent among these are the extent to which unit costs of production actually fell, the degree to which this fall caused supply to expand, and the price elasticity of demand for the product. (If demand were very inelastic with respect to price, the drop in prices would be so great that farmers would probably be dissuaded from maintaining increased production levels.) The extent to which the demand for slack season labour actually increased would depend upon both the level of expansion in production and the technical relationship between level of output and slack season labour requirements.4 It is quite possible, however, that even if total annual labour requirements were to remain the same, or even increase, the demand for labour from the poorer sections of rural society, namely landless labourers and marginal farmers, would actually fall. Agricultural labour supply in Third World countries is of two very distinct types: permanent (typically family) and casual. Casual labour is normally only hired when the permanent farm labour force is fully employed, i.e. during the peak season. If peak season labour demands fall, the brunt - perhaps all - of this reduction is likely to be borne by casual labourers. On the other hand, if slack season labour requirements increase it is quite possible that most, if not all, of this could be supplied from within the farm family.5 Paradoxically then, one of the most disadvantaged classes in society, and one which suffers most from seasonality of employment, could actually be the net losers from a reduction in seasonality of labour requirements following even selective mechanization. MECHANIZATION AS APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY

It would be easy and misleading to proceed, on equity grounds, from the above type of analysis to a wholesale condemnation of agricultural mechanization in developing countries. The by-now familiar categorization of technologies as either 'labour displacing' or 'labour augmenting' can lead to this type of error, for it tends to identify whole categories of technologies with one or the other attribute. Technologies

184

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

like fertilizer and improved seed are widely regarded as labour augmenting, since their direct effect is to generate additional employment as well as increased production. They are also highly divisible, so that they can be used economically on even the smallest farms. Hence few reservations have been expressed as to the direct effect of these technologies.6 Most of the critical attention has been concentrated on labour displacing technologies, a term which has come to be identified to a large extent with mechanization of field, and postharvest, operations. This is too simplistic, for the evidence shows that a mechanical technology which under one set of circumstances displaces labour without generating additional production, can, under different circumstances, not only increase land productivity, but also generate a net increase in income and employment for casual labourers. This point is illustrated from the developing countries' experience of a piece of pure 'turnkey' technology, the farm tractor, which is probably the most widely used piece of modern machinery in Third World agriculture. As the example of' water harvesting' in Kenya illustrated (Chapter 5), this piece of machinery, even when it takes the form of a large crawler tractor, can provide important counter-seasonal advantages, making it possible to extend the growing season through improved water management. Nor is this an isolated example. Where hoe cultivation is the norm and there is a single rainy season - as is the case in many parts of Africa - the onset of the rains signals the start of an often frantic struggle to get the land prepared and under crops so as to use as much as possible of the growing season. Hand cultivation is very labour intensive, and labour availability for hoeing is likely to be the major constraint on cultivated area. In this situation the inelasticity of labour supply may well produce a true labour bottleneck, and the introduction of plough culture would permit an increase in cultivated acreage and hence in production and slack season employment. In a case such as this, there is clearly zprima facie case for introducing a more efficient cultivation technology. The question then is whether animal cultivation could solve the problem or whether tractors are needed. ' Oxenization' programmes in such countries as Botswana and The Gambia have proven successful in reducing the labour bottleneck at land preparation, but in some cases animal powered cultivation is not feasible for technical reasons. One such reason is that parts of Africa are infested by tsetse fly. This insect is the vector for trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), which is widespread among both cattle and equines in tsetse-infected areas, and is extremely debilitating for both. Thus the introduction of cotton cultivation into the tsetse infested savanna of

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

I8 5

Sukumaland in northern Tanzania was dependent upon the availability of tractors to clear and cultivate the bush. The tractor's greater power is also sometimes needed in areas where soils are difficult to work, perhaps because they are very heavy, or very dry, or - as was the case in the Gezira Scheme in Sudan - infested with particularly tenacious weeds. The seasonal employment creation effect when plough cultivation is introduced - even with tractors - in conjunction with labour intensive methods in other operations can be very marked indeed. In the mid1970s tractors were introduced into the Setit-Humera area of northwestern Ethiopia to produce crops of sesame, sorghum and cotton on lands which had previously been used for semi-nomadic grazing. According to unofficial sources within the then Ethiopian government, this created employment for 100 000 labourers for up to eight months a year for weeding and harvesting these crops by traditional methods. Of course the ethics of driving nomads from their traditional rangelands are open to question, but there is little doubt that the net production and seasonal employment effects were positive. None of the above is meant to support the widespread belief that tractorization is essential to the development of Third World agriculture, for this technology is more often inappropriate than not. The evidence from surveys in a large number of different environments indicates that where plough culture is already the norm the replacement of draught animals by tractors (whether of the two- or four-wheel type) generates neither any increase in land productivity nor any slack season employment to set against the labour displacement they cause.7 This may at first seem surprising in view of the theoretical arguments regarding the improvement in both quality and timeliness of cultivation that should result from tractorization. When quality of cultivation is considered, the advantage claimed for tractors over animals is that they cultivate more deeply and more thoroughly, therefore doing a better job of weed eradication, soil aeration and incorporation of nutrients. The studies in question, however, failed to find that, when factors like variation in fertilizer use were controlled, these theoretical advantages were reflected in significantly improved yields. When advantages are claimed for tractor cultivation, it must be remembered that this machine was designed for conditions in which the source of seasonality in production is seasonality of temperature regime, not of rainfall, as in most of the Third World. When a crop is to be grown on residual moisture, deep ploughing can be a distinct disadvantage, as it increases the rate of evaporation. At the other end of the scale, when a crop is grown under wetland conditions, as is the case of paddy in

l86

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

much of Asia, tractorization can result in the destruction of the bunds and ploughpans on which this form of culture depends. In addition, the small fragmented plots that typify developing, as distinct from developed, country agriculture (particularly in Asia) will result, respectively, in lengthy travelling time between plots, and a relatively large uncultivated strip around the edge of the plot. The question of timeliness of operations is central to the seasonality debate, and one of the arguments frequently heard in favour of tractorization is that during the cultivation season, even though animal ploughing teams are working flat out, the sheer pressure of work means that not all of the land is cultivated as early as is desirable. The conclusion often reached, therefore, is that there is a 'draught power constraint' on productivity, and that the only way out is tractorization. This argument is strangely reminiscent of the 'labour bottleneck' theory, and although in certain circumstances it can be equally valid, it can also be equally fallacious. Draught power for cultivation is a highly seasonal input, and for most of the year the animals consume without producing. For example, in the semi-arid zone of Mali, farmers use their oxen for an average of only two weeks a year, during which they work an average of 4.5 hours per day (ILCA 1988, p. 37). If a farmer were to have so many draught animals that all of the land could be cultivated at the biological optimum time, the wastage represented by these draught resources lying idle for the rest of the year would be extremely large. However, a parallel argument applies to tractors and power tillers, although here the problem is not one of high running costs, but of high capital costs. For although machines do not consume fuel when not in use, the extent of their seasonal idleness represents a major problem of capacity underutilization.8 In both cases there is a trade-off between the potential production sacrificed by not having unlimited draught power and the cost of investment and maintenance of this resource. The point is to establish the optimum point on this trade-off curve. In doing so it should be borne in mind that even if there is a draught power constraint, it is only one of many constraints on agricultural productivity. Mechanization consumes many scarce resources, prominent among which is foreign exchange. The question is whether these resources are best spent on tractors, power tillers, diesel, lubricants, etc., when the opportunity-cost is the fertilizer, irrigation pumpsets, etc. that could otherwise have been imported. A related aspect of the timeliness question is the fact that, while it is undoubtedly true that the tractor cultivates faster than animals, in order to cover the machine's much higher capital costs (even when these are

AGRICULTURAL

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Week

MECHANIZATION 100

10 11

0 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Week

I87

10 11 12

Figure 8.1. Cumulative frequency distribution of land preparation time for sample co-operators' land. Subang and Indramayu Districts, West Java (Indonesia), 1979-80. Legend

Wet season area

Dry season area

O-

373 .67 ha 135 •87 ha .63 •72 ha 56 •34 ha

279 •13 114 .42 —

ha ha

218 .07

ha

Tractor owner Tractor hire A Animal 0 Manual

o •

(Source: Bernsten et al. (1984), Figure 6.2). (a) wet season, 1979/80; (b) dry season, 1980.

subsidized) it must also cultivate a much greater area in order to be an economic proposition. Hence the advantage with regard to timeliness may apply only on the first few plots that are cultivated. Later on in the cultivation season, the machine may actually cultivate later than the animals, for the simple reason that one tractor obviously has to cultivate the plots in succession, whereas the large number of animal teams it displaces can cultivate a large number of plots simultaneously. It may come as a surprise to learn that in areas where labour is unusually plentiful, even manual cultivation can compete in terms of timeliness with the tractor. Figure 8.1 illustrates the findings of empirical research on the timeliness/choice of technique relationship in densely-populated Java. The diagram shows that in the wet season the land under manual preparation is actually ready first, followed by animal-cultivated plots and then tractor-cultivated ones. However, in the dry season, where there was no animal-powered cultivation, manual cultivation does tend to lag about a week behind the tractors. This is not because manual methods are inherently slower (assuming that sufficient numbers of labourers are available), but because in this case the labourers, having been busy with the harvest of the previous crop,

188

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

could not start cultivating until about a week after the tractors. A comparison of the three curves of Figure 8.1 (b) shows that the time difference for the two fastest approaches, tractor hire and manual cultivation, stays constant, and that each actually out-performs tractor owners. Overall, then, this evidence suggests that where ample labour is available tractor cultivation per se is not any speedier than manual cultivation, and can actually be slower. SEQUENTIAL MECHANIZATION

Mechanization is often not an act, but a process, and one that often seems to acquire a momentum of its own. Even where the first operation to be mechanized could justifiably be described as subject to ' labour bottlenecks' or ' draught power constraints', there is a very real danger that it will spark off a sequence of further mechanization, into operations and seasons in which such constraints do not exist. Ethiopia again provides an illuminating example, and one which contrasts strongly with the earlier one of labour-augmenting mechanization in that country. Farmers in the grain producing area of Chilalo during the late 1960s and early 1970s were encouraged to adopt tractors in order to speed up land preparation and hence, it was argued, facilitate the adoption of a yield increasing 'package' of improved seeds and fertilizer. Tractorization reduced labour requirements in the ploughing season, but the increase in crop yields which resulted from the adoption of the entire 'package' increased labour requirements for harvesting and threshing. This was, nevertheless, achieved at the expense of reducing the number of employment peaks from two to one, so that seasonality of employment increased. Worse still from the labourer's viewpoint, many of the farmers subsequently began to perceive a labour bottleneck in this new single peak period. This problem was naturally felt most seriously by the larger farmers, who were also the largest employers and those with the best sources of technological information and the best contacts in the government (a factor which ensured that their concerns met with sympathetic consideration on the part of the authorities). The early- to mid-1970s therefore saw a steadily increasing number of combine harvesters being introduced into the Chilalo region, and a corresponding outflow of agricultural labour.9 Sequential mechanization will receive a strong additional stimulus if a machine that is adopted to solve one ' labour bottleneck' or ' draught power constraint' can be used for several other operations as well. For

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

I 89

example, tractors or power tillers may be introduced to ease a labour constraint in primary cultivation, but farmers will quickly discover that the same machine can also be used for other tillage operations, such as seedbed finishing and, for row-planted crops, inter-cultivation. If such operations are mechanized, the need to hire labour for seedbed preparation and weeding may well be eliminated. Two- and four-wheel tractors can also be used to pull trailers and can act as stationary power sources for threshers or irrigation pumps. Hence, once the initial investment has been made, further operations can be mechanized at such small additional cost that labour displacement becomes profitable even in non-peak seasons. In fact, it not only becomes profitable to mechanize further operations in this way: it actually becomes advisable, for a piece of engine-powered equipment will depreciate more rapidly if it is left unused between seasons than if it is kept in regular use. Further scale economies can be achieved in the machinery supply and maintenance business. Mechanization, even of a single operation, requires a fairly extensive support system. Fuel, lubricants, spares and other supplies have to be imported and stocked, workshops must be set up and mechanics and operators trained and kept employed.10 Hence, only if mechanization is fairly profitable — as it may be if there is a labour bottleneck (however defined) in a particular operation — will this infrastructure be established. However, once it is established, little additional investment is needed to permit the maintenance of a steadily increasing range of machinery. Indeed there is a strong incentive for owners to expand in this way, in order to reduce their own problem of seasonality in the use of skilled labour and capital equipment! Hence 'non-bottleneck' operations, which could not have been economically mechanized alone, can profitably be mechanized once the necessary overhead costs have been met. Unfortunately for the labourer it is the farmer who makes the investment decisions. The government may be in a position to help the former by selective bans and controls on the manufacture and importation of certain equipment, but there are practical difficulties in the way of implementing such a policy in an economy which is neither centrally planned nor centrally controlled. The first is the greater influence possessed by farmers, particularly large farmers, who can place their viewpoint forcefully before government officials. Second, even if the government wished to protect the interests of the labourer and passed laws to this effect, enforcement problems would remain. Suppose, for example, it were proved beyond all reasonable doubt that a particular form of selective mechanization in a particular agro-

190

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

ecological zone would be labour-augmenting and that the necessary machinery imports were therefore authorized. What institutional measures could be taken to prevent farmers in that area from subsequently increasing the capacity utilization of their machines by mechanizing further operations? Moreover, given the weak internal administrative structure of developing countries, what policy measures could effectively counter any market forces which subsequently tended to 'pull' the machines into other areas, where they might be net displacers of labour? Finally, the familiar 'equity versus efficiency' question once again arises in the case of sequential mechanization. It may be, for example, that farmers who have successfully mechanized a peak operation can then cheaply use the same machine to mechanize non-peak operations and hence further increase food supply, thereby helping to further reduce prices because of the reduction in unit costs. Where such conflicts exist — or perhaps more accurately, where the government can be persuaded to believe that they exist — some difficult political decisions must be made. IRRIGATION AND MECHANIZATION

Irrigation is the labour-augmenting counter-seasonal technology par excellence. Like fertilizer it increases land productivity and hence generates additional labour requirements. Like tractors, it can increase the productivity of slack season labour by easing peak period labour constraints. Unlike either, it can also substitute slack season labour for peak season labour by shifting crop seasons. It is difficult to imagine conditions under which irrigation per se would not increase both agricultural production and requirements for labour - or a close substitute. The danger is that it will be the close substitute that is employed rather than labour, so that the potential for increased slack season employment is not realized. Labour substitution is possible in either the irrigation technology itself or in associated operations. In some cases labour-intensive irrigation is not technologically feasible, as for example when deep aquifers must be tapped or dams and other large structures built. In these cases the situation is similar to that of tractor-cultivation of tsetse infested areas: capital-intensive technology in one operation is required in order to realize a potential for increased production and employment elsewhere in the seasonal cycle. However, there are also cases in which a choice of technology does exist. Where capital-intensive irrigation replaces, or is adopted in

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION 191 preference to, manual methods, labour requirements per unit of water delivered will, of course, fall. However, if they also deliver more water over a longer period, the net effect may well be labour-augmenting. Stone (1984) has argued that this is what happened in India when canal irrigation began to replace or supplement well irrigation from the 1830s onwards in what is now Uttar Pradesh. Canals, a relatively capital-intensive and labour-displacing technology, were preferred because they 'released for productive redeployment those "overhead" factors, (family) labour and bullocks, which - in combination with canal water - permitted the peasant family to realize more from its holding overall' (pp. 103—4). The canal did this by reducing the amount of labour required for irrigation and reducing dependence of the timing of farm operations on rainfall. The author continues: A feature of agriculture in well tracts was the limitation on the cultivator's capacity - with the summer crops to gather in and make ready for the market — to prepare, sow and sustain with well water during the season more than a certain proportion of his acreage... In canal villages, where copious water could be turned onto the bakedfieldsin May, and where the cattle would be comparatively fresh for ploughing, a substantial input of resources occurred before the rains (ibid, p. 116). The result of canal irrigation was therefore an extension of the irrigated area, intensification of cropping, increased yields, reduced possibility of crop failure and an increase in the proportion of the land that could be devoted to high value crops and varieties. The substitution of capital-intensive for labour-intensive irrigation technology does not, however, always have such an evidently happy outcome, and the more capital-intensive of a set of alternative techniques should not be adopted on the mere assumption that it will prove the most productive and/or the most labour-augmenting. As in the case of selective mechanization, no hard-and-fast answers can be given that will fit all situations. If irrigation can normally be expected to bring about increases in both production and total employment, it may also produce new labour bottlenecks or intensify existing ones in the process. A study of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan provides an example of how investigation of this issue might usefully be undertaken. Gotsch (1968) used a programming approach to (among other things) simulate the employment impact of the introduction of tubewell irrigation in the former Punjab. The results of his calculations on overall labour demand are summarized in Figure 8.2 (a). This illustrates in effect an upward

192

T E C H N O L O G I C A L C H A N G E IN E N V I R O N M E N T

With tubewells

3000

3500 4000 Quantity of labour (hours)

4500

300 T

Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Months of the year

Figure 8.2(0): Pakistan: total labour used in tubewell and non-tubewell farms. (Source: Gotsch (1968), Figure 5.) (b) Pakistan: seasonal distribution of hired labour on tubewell ( ) and non-tubewell farms ( ). (Source: Gotsch (1968), Figure 6.)

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION 193 shift in the labour demand schedule following the introduction of tubewells, and an increase in both the level of employment and the hourly wage rate. According to Gotsch's calculations, total employment would increase by over 40 per cent, of which nearly 28 per cent was the result of hiring additional casual labourers {idem, p. 212). The effects on seasonality of employment are summarized in Figure 8.2(b), which shows that the change is quite significant: the number of months in which there is no demand for hired labour drops from nine to four, and the peak demand periods shift by several months. The traditional April-May peak (for harvesting winter crops and planting summer ones) is intensified and lengthened, while labour requirements for preparing the land and sowing an irrigated winter crop create a secondary employment peak where previously hired labour requirements were nil. Referring to this particular diagram, Gotsch concludes: The result of incorporating tubewells into the model suggests that seasonal fluctuations may even be accentuated with additional water supplies as farmers tend to increase their specialization (p. 215). Whether or not seasonality has, in fact, increased in this particular case is, as Gotsch suggests, open to debate. What his data show, however, is that in relative terms seasonality has declined, since when the coefficients of variation in employment are calculated, they transpire to be 210 per cent on farms without tubewells and 124 per cent on farms that have them. However, in absolute terms seasonality may be said to have increased, particularly in view of the fact that the range between the peak employment month and the slackest one increases from 60 to almost 300 hours with the introduction of tubewells. As far as employment is concerned, the crucial question in cases such as this is how the farmers view such developments and how they will react. It is by no means inconceivable that they will follow the 'sequential mechanization' path outlined earlier. If irrigation is introduced as part of a ' scheme' - as is frequently the case when investment is made in large surface water irrigation works — mechanization of other operations is frequently built into the scheme design. A common form is the provision of tractor hire services from tractor pools in the public or co-operative sectors. In other cases tractorization is left to the private sector, either the farmers themselves or contractors. Mechanization on irrigated lands, whether public or private, carries the inherent danger that the employment-creation potential of irrigation will unnecessarily be squandered. Farrington and Abeyratne (1984) cite

194

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

the example of the opening up of irrigated 'colonization' schemes in Sri Lanka's dry zone from the 1950s onwards. Here the tractorization option was ' pursued vigorously' through a number of fiscal, credit, foreign exchange and other concessions. Yet, they continue: It would scarcely be an exaggeration to suggest that the official promotion of seasonal migration in the development of colonization schemes would have provided a viable, and potentially much more socially profitable, partial alternative to tractorisation (p. 122). Part of the problem is the ' package' mentality, for whose popularity the 'green revolution' is largely responsible. Experiments with high yielding varieties in tropical and semi-tropical environments quickly demonstrated that a combination of modern seed, irrigation and agrochemicals could be synergistic: a combination of biological and chemical agencies with good management practices actually could produce a total effect that was greater than the sum of their individual effects. However, the assumption seems subsequently to have gained ground that all of the elements in capital-intensive agriculture can properly be regarded as synergistic, particularly where modern irrigation is used. There is no evidence to support this last viewpoint, yet the ' package' approach has in many areas been extended to include mechanization on many irrigation schemes in the Third World. There may well be a case for mechanization of particular operations in particular circumstances in order to derive the full benefit of irrigation, but cases are seldom judged on their individual merits. A study by Bell et al. (1982) demonstrates what can result from this type of confused thinking. The authors used an annual equilibrium model to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an irrigated settlement scheme on the regional economy of a poor district, Muda, in the northwest of peninsular Malaysia. Some of the findings of this study are of great interest for the present investigation, since it divided the year into weekly, fornightly and four-weekly periods, a specification which permitted exploration of the seasonal dimension of the project's impact. In the Muda area, the contemporaneous introduction of irrigation and a new variety of paddy which had a growing period of 135 to 140 days (traditional varieties had a 160 to 180 day growing period), permitted a switch from single to double cropping. The result, however, was much more complex than a simple duplication of the existing paddy economy within a year: Growing two crops a year makes for a more hurried rhythm of cultivation; as one crop is harvested, the land is quickly tilled again and then planted to

AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION 195 the next. Thus any tightness in the supply of labor will manifest itself in a rise in wage rates. This is exactly what happened. But if wage rates rise, it may become cheaper to prepare the land with tractors than with buffaloes, and with afixedsupply of land, rents will be affected too (ibid, p. 6). The model predicted that in the absence of the project the degree of mechanization of cultivation would have been small, with a predicted stock of just 185 four-wheel tractors (FWTs) compared with an estimated pre-project (1967) base of thirty nine. With the project, however, the growth in FWT numbers is extremely rapid: A comparison of the steady-state solutions for 1967 and 1974 reveals a wholesale switch from buffaloes to four-wheel tractors, which does not unduly exaggerate the actual course of events over that period (ibid, P- 92)The situation arising from this original formulation showed that the number of tractors was more than 1500. The authors then went on to simulate 'various steady-state solutions for 1974 in the presence of the project', in order to find out whether (a) the absence of FWTs would have been seriously detrimental to the project, and (b) how much better casual labourers might have fared ' if the demand for their labour had not been reduced through mechanization'. The results of these investigations may come as a surprise. In particular, aggregate net income and total paddy production are little affected by the absence of FWTs, declining by only around one per cent, ' which suggests that the unit costs of each technique are similar over the observed range of factor prices' (ibid). Comparison of the structure of seasonal wage rates is also instructive, the most interesting comparison being between the 'solution' that simulates the 'actual' situation and the one that excludes all mechanized cultivation. In the latter case the average wage was found to increase by 12 per cent, employment of casual labour by 60 per cent and total wage earnings by almost 80 per cent. The authors conclude that 'clearly, casual laborers were denied significant additional benefits from the project as a result of mechanization involving four-wheel tractors' (p. 93). Farmers, too, would have been better off without mechanization, for although aggregate income would be very slightly lower (by one per cent), rents would have been almost ten per cent lower. The only people who did benefit from mechanization were rentiers and the suppliers of agricultural machinery and ' the intermediate inputs necessary for their operation' (ibid, pp. 94-5). n Why should farmers mechanize if the labour-intensive alternative is actually cheaper? One answer is, of course, that results such as the above are derived with the benefit of hindsight. Others may, however,

196

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT

reflect a conscious choice. For example, the benefits of mechanization in terms of social status may be sufficient to outweigh the economic advantages of labour-intensive methods. A third possibility is that, as a result of the 'package project' way of thinking, mechanization is often officially encouraged by a range of incentives. In the Sri Lankan example quoted earlier, open and hidden subsidies included concessionary rates of duty on tractors and tractor spares, hire charges that did not cover costs, preferential foreign exchange allocations, concessionary rates of interest on loans, a lowering of commercial criteria for lending, restrictions on repossession of equipment in the event of loan default, tax concessions on depreciation allowances, and fuel subsidies (ibid, pp. 114—15). Even without such market distortions, imperfections in the traditional factor market may give a temporary edge to the more modern technology (with its modern marketing channels). Hence, as wage rates increase in the face of growing labour constraints in certain operations, the mechanization option may well begin to look increasingly attractive to farmers. What they are actually facing may, however, be just a temporary imbalance in labour supply and demand, aggravated perhaps by communications barriers. If there is surplus labour in the economy as a whole at the season in question, new seasonal labour migration routes could be expected to develop, hence increasing the supply of labour at the crucial time. Of course, once farmers have invested in tractors and other equipment instead, this option will have been foreclosed. The mechanization sequence need not necessarily begin or end with tractors. Other labour-intensive operations in irrigated agriculture that are susceptible to mechanization include transplanting, weeding, harvesting and post-harvest operations. As implied earlier, the mechanization process, once begun, seems to acquire a momentum of its own. + Biological technologies The historical process of purposive selection and informal experimentation by farmers has continued, and is still continuing today. However, there are important limitations to what can be achieved by such informal methods. Biggs and Clay (1981) have summarized these as follows. First, the potential for selecting for desirable characteristics is limited to ' what can be done with the local pool of genes and new material introduced by unsystematic transfer'. Second, this process 'can be highly vulnerable to environmental change or unforeseen

BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES

197

Table 8.1 Estimated area planted to high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice in the major regions of the developing countries, 1982-8} Wheat

Region

Total

Rice

Area (million

Proportion

Area (million

Proportion

Area (million

Proportion

ha)

(%)

ha)

(%)

ha)

(%)

79.2 30.6 50.6 77.6

36.2

44.9

61.8

54.6

O.I

8.4

7-7

0.2

4-7 32.9

10.8

29.6 13-3 59.0

60.9 30.6

39.2

41.6 81.0

81.0

49.8

33-4

42-3

58.0

51.9

72.6

53.6

123.3

52.9

25.4 Asia" Near East" 7.6 Africa" °-5 8.3 Latin America Subtotal 41.8 Communist 8.9 Asia0 Total 5°-7

M

°-7

Notes: "Bangladesh, Burma, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand. b North Africa included in Near East. c China in the case of wheat (short semi-dwarfs only); China, Kampuchea, Laos and Vietnam in the case of rice. Excludes North Korea. Source: Dairymple (1985), Table 1. consequences of technology transfer'. Third, there are risks in the 'uncontrolled movement of plant material' as well as benefits of controlled movement, as in the case of technologies which require systematic plant breeding techniques. Finally, 'the informal system is not forward-looking, able to anticipate opportunities and the risks of changing factor endowments and environments, or to explore the capabilities where a lengthy and costly process of research is required' (ibid, p. 326). Informal research and development efforts will undoubtedly continue to play a crucial role in the development of counter-seasonal production technologies, but it should increasingly become part of an interactive process with a formal R & D system which can supply the modern scientific element. Formal R & D work in developing country agriculture is not particularly new. Wallace (1888), for example, commented on a range of experimental work under departments of agriculture throughout what was then British-ruled south Asia, work that was later integrated and strengthened with the establishment of the Indian Agricultural Research Institute in 1905. Similar efforts were sponsored under a number of other colonial regimes, but the emphasis was firmly on cash

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crops for export, rather than on food crops for domestic consumption. In the post-colonial period this began to change, as national governments accepted that increasing emphasis would have to be placed on the development of food crops for domestic consumption, a set of concerns that eventually led to the establishment of publiclyfunded national agricultural research centres (the unfortunately named 'NARCs') in virtually all developing countries. These are supported by a growing number of international agricultural research centres (IARCs), also mainly located in developing countries. Most of the fundamental research (as well as a good deal of applied work) is done at the IARCs, while the NARCs' research tends towards the more applied and adaptive end of the spectrum. There is also a varying degree of collaborative research between the two. The present discussion will concentrate mainly on the IARCs, partly because of the leading role they play in technological change, but mainly because it would be impossible to deal, except in the broadest possible terms, with the vast and diverse array of NARCs that now exists in the developing world. HIGH-YIELDING VARIETIES

In their earlier days the IARCs saw their mission in terms of countering world hunger through the development of high-yielding varieties (HYVs) that would significantly increase production of staple crops in the Third World. A vital breakthrough was made in this area with the incorporation of a single dwarfing gene in wheat by a team led by Dr Norman E. Borlaug in Mexico. This innovation changed the whole architecture of the plant, producing ' semi-dwarf varieties which had a high grain-to-straw ratio and a short, stiff stem. The consequent advantages were that an increased proportion of nutrient uptake went into producing grain rather than straw, while the stiff stem was lodging-resistant. Semi-dwarf varieties of wheat and rice were at the heart of the ' green revolution' of the 1960s, and 'spread more widely, more quickly, than any other technological innovation in the history of agriculture in the developing countries' (Dalrymple 1985, p. 1067). Table 8.1 shows the extent of the spread of these varieties in Third World agriculture. Within just twenty years more than half of the wheat and rice areas in such countries were sown to HYVs. Although HYVs were never intended to address the seasonality problem, they have nevertheless had a considerable effect upon it. An

BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES I99 earlier example (Figure 5.1) showed how farmers in one developing area have learned to insert new rice varieties into their traditional ricebased farming systems with significant counter-seasonal effects by exploiting photoperiodic differences in the genetic makeup of modern and traditional varieties. However, this has not always — indeed not usually - been the case, for a major effect of varietal research has been to reduce the number of varieties of a crop that are grown, so that genetic diversity to be found in the fields has often been greatly reduced. In the early days of the ' green revolution' this type of development was deliberately fostered by the IARCs. For example IR8, the first semidwarf variety released by the International Rice Research Institute was officially proclaimed to be 'a rugged variety that could go almost anywhere in the tropics' and 'went round the world and showed its high yield to everyone'.12 The implication of this type of statement is that a few modern varieties could profitably be grown over a wide geographical area. The perfect science of hindsight has shown such a judgement to have been mistaken, and there has now developed instead a 'growing awareness among scientists that strong, locally specific R and D programmes, where even the plant breeding priorities are set with respect to local physical and socio-economic environments, are needed' (Biggs and Clay 1981, p. 331). Nevertheless, there is still a very strong association between HYV adoption and the erosion of varietal diversity in the farmers' fields (as distinct from germplasm banks and herbaria). Indeed this is now regarded as a matter of extreme concern by the IARCs and NARCs, although this tends to focus primarily on the problem of increased susceptibility to disease. For example: ' Slow varietal turnover and a lack of diversity increase the possibility that rust pathogens will build up or that races will mutate and an epidemic will occur' (CIMMYT 1988, p. 47). The disease problem is very real and very worrying, but lack of diversity also increases the seasonality problem, and this is an issue that will not be solved by increased varietal turnover. When the same variety comes to dominate a given mesoenvironment, seasonality of resource requirements will increase, as the timing of operations on all farms in the neighbourhood come increasingly to coincide. The need to ease the consequent 'labour bottlenecks' is one of the principle reasons that labour-displacing mechanization has accompanied 'green revolution' technology in countries like India and Pakistan (Binswanger 1978, Laxminarayan eta/. 1981)1

The stem characteristics of semi-dwarf varieties lead to seasonality

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Table 8.2 Research centres supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Acronym/ initials Full name [host country]

Major research area(s)

CIAT

Beans, cassava, rice, beef.

Centro International de Agricultura Tropical (International Centre for Tropical Agriculture) [Colombia] CIMMYT Centro Internacional de Mejoramientio de Mai%j Trigo (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre) [Mexico] CIP Centro Internacional de la Papa (International Potato Centre) [Peru] IBPGR International Board for Plant Genetic Resources [Italy (at FAO)] ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas [Syria]

Maize, wheat, barley, triticale.

Potato, sweet potato.

Preservation of plant germplasm.

Durum wheat, barley, faba (broad) bean, lentil, chickpea, pasture, forage crops. ICRISAT International Crops Research Sorghum, pearl millet, groundnut, chickpea, pigeon Institute for the Semi-Arid pea. Tropics [India] Food production, food IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute [USA] distribution, international food trade. Cassava, maize, cowpea; IITA International Institute of sustainable agriculture, Tropical Agriculture farming systems. [Nigeria] ILCA International Livestock Centre Livestock production and marketing in tropical Africa. for Africa [Ethiopia] Control of trypanosomiasis and ILRAD International Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases theileriosis. [Kenya]

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Table 8.2 {cont.) Acronym/ initials Full name [host country]

Major research area(s)

Tropical rice and rice-based International Rice Research cropping systems. Institute [Philippines] Strengthening national ISNAR International Service for agricultural research systems. National Agricultural Research [Netherlands] WARDA West Africa Rice Development Promotion of rice selfsufficiency in 15 African Association [Ivory Coast] countries. IRRI

Sources: Adapted from IDRC (1986) and the various Centres' annual reports.

problems of their own. One such difficulty was noted earlier - again in the example depicted in Figure 5 . 1 - namely the fact that in areas that are inundated in the rainy season semi-dwarf rices cannot be transplanted out as early, or on as low-lying land, as the longerstemmed traditional ones. This constitutes an important limitation on both the area that can be put under these varieties, and on the length or timing of their growing season. Another problem is that exclusive attention to yield ignores the fact that in developing countries many crops are multi-purpose. Wheat and rice straw are important components of livestock rations in many parts of the Third World. Unfortunately, the short stature of semi-dwarf varieties means that they produce less straw per plant than traditional varieties, so that there is also less fodder. Moreover the stems of semi-dwarf varieties tend to be high in lignin, a substance that in association with cellulose causes a plant's cell walls to thicken and become woody. This contributes to these varieties' lodging-resistance, but it also reduces the digestibility of the straw. Unless corrected by other means, the consequent reduction in both quantity and quality of livestock feed will produce the same problems for animals as seasonally poor nutrition does for humans: a longer hungry season and a still longer season of malnutrition. Table 8.1 showed that the distribution of the most successful HYVs, wheat and rice, had been extremely uneven between regions of the

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developing world. In particular, sub-Saharan Africa, with its appalling record of famine, has reaped fairly insignificant benefits from these crops. Moreover, the adoption of HYVs is strongly associated with fertilizer use. This underlines an important genetic characteristic of these varieties. They are not innately high-yielding: instead, they are unusually responsive to high levels of management, particularly in the forms of fertilizer, irrigation and pest control. Without these inputs they normally yield less well than traditional varieties of the same crop. Even within areas where HYV rices and wheats have been most successful poorer farmers often cannot afford the inputs needed to grow them. Nor can farmers in remote areas easily grow them, for they find it difficult and expensive both to obtain inputs and to market the surplus crop that must ultimately payforthem. Yet, as noted earlier, these are the types of farmers who suffer most from seasonality of production and incomes. For them, modern varieties, at least when they take the shape of HYVs, neither reduce the seasonality problem nor lessen the poverty problem which makes it so serious. NEW DIRECTIONS IN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH

Exclusive concern with HYVs was a feature of the early years of food crop research at the IARCs. As the system matured and the number of centres multiplied, it became gradually clear to all but a dwindling (but far from tiny) number of supply-side diehards that the multi-faceted problem of Third World hunger would not be solved simply by creating a few fertilizer-responsive crop varieties. New challenges began to be identified, priorities began to change and new approaches were tried out. This process has been further stimulated since the formation of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR, or more usually 'CG'). Table 8.2 lists the centres CG supports along with their major research interests. The CG system was formed in 1971 under the auspices of FAO, UNDP and the World Bank. The Bank provides the Group's secretariat and headquarters office and FAO its Technical Advisory Committee (TAC). Membership includes bilateral donor agencies, regional and international organizations and private foundations. Achievements have been considerable, not least on the financial front, where ' through an innovative approach based on commitment and consensus, the CG has managed to enlarge the financial base of the centers from an initial annual budget of US$ 9 million to nearly US$ 200 million in 1987' (CIMMYT 1988, p. 3). More substantively, the CG influences and co-

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ordinates the direction of international agricultural research. Its secretariat monitors management performance of the IARCs, while the TAC ' monitors the scientific performance of the centers and reviews center budgets in the light of denned research priorities' (IITA 1988, p. 6). Under the guidance of the TAC, research at the centres has since the early 1970s grown away from exclusive concern with increased yields, moving instead towards a greater emphasis on 'the generation of additional income by the poor through improved agricultural technology' (CIMMYT 1988, p. 3). The TAC's concerns have been broadened to embrace the sustaining of increases that have been achieved in crop production (and which are under attack by new strains of pests), maintaining the resource base upon which agriculture depends, and increasing the productivity of agriculture in rainfed and marginal areas. All of these concerns 'will be reflected increasingly in the research programs of the centers' (ibid). This new, broader group of concerns — particularly those relating to the incomes of the poor, the sustainability of the agricultural resource base and the agriculture of rainfed and marginal areas — if translated into new and appropriate biological technologies — should almost certainly make major contributions towards the devising of new counter-seasonal technologies for Third World farmers. Of particular importance to the seasonality issue is the widespread adoption of (although with varying degrees of commitment to) a 'systems' approach to agricultural research. Viewing a farm as a system, rather than, implicitly, as a series of disconnected crop- or animal enterprises, forces the scientist to take the time dimension of the production process much more closely into account. As a direct result of adopting this approach, the IARCs' research agendas have increasingly come to address the problem of seasonality in production conditions. Adoption of this approach has not, however, been made easy by the heavily commodity-oriented nature of most of the centres. A glance at Table 8.2 shows that the majority of those supported by CG take at most only a few species as their research areas, while few have responsibilities that explicitly extend across the whole range of the farmer's work. This means that when a ' systems' approach is ostensibly adopted in practice, it tends to be focused around a particular species (as in 'rice-based', or 'maizebased' systems). As often as not it is a cropping, rather than a farming, systems approach that is adopted, and this in turn means that often it is the timing of production (but not of resource use) that receives most attention. Nevertheless, some extremely useful work has been done in

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recent years in addressing the seasonality issue - even when an essentially cropping systems approach has been adopted. Seasonality and cropping systems research

One very important way in which the newfound concern with the timing of crop production has manifested itself is in the development of short-duration crop varieties. For example, early-maturing varieties of rice have now been developed at IRRI and WARDA, of sweet potato and cowpea at IITA, and of pigeon pea at ICRISAT. By reducing the growing period within a given growing season, the effect is to increase the farmer's flexibility with respect to timing of successive crops. Depending on circumstances, this may ease a labour- or other bottleneck, permit the insertion of an additional crop into an existing cropping pattern, or help avoid unfavourable conditions at either end of the season. Other work at the IARCs has enabled the growing season itself to be extended. One mechanism is the development of varieties that are unusually tolerant of the adverse conditions to be found at either end of the growing season. For example, in recognition of the fact that ' there is a great need in many developing countries for improved earlymaturing tropical materials', CIMMYT stresses the selection and development of drought-tolerant varieties of maize (CIMMYT 1988, p. 16). Similarly, CIAT, IRRI and WARDA have worked to develop rice varieties which tolerate conditions such as drought or late transplanting, while ICARDA has developed disease-resistant, coldtolerant varieties of chickpea that in North Africa and West Asia can be planted in winter instead of spring, thereby shifting and lengthening the growing season, in the process making it possible to double yields. These and other IARCs continue to select and develop varieties that tolerate other stresses, such as those caused by flooding and adverse temperature. Another way to lengthen the growing season for a particular crop is to develop appropriate agronomic practices. New techniques of maize—potato intercropping developed by CIP in collaboration with NARCs in China, Egypt and Peru illustrate this. Potato is a cool season crop in the tropics, but it has been discovered that it can continue to grow into the early hot season if a tall tropical crop like maize is planted on the sunward side of each potato ridge. The timing should be such that the maize will have reached its full height by the time the temperature rises, when it will shade, and therefore cool, the potato crop. Alternatively, the season can be started unusually early if the potato is planted into a standing crop of maize late in the hot season,

BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES 2OJ so that the maize keeps its companion crop cool during its early growing period. In some cases crop research has gone further than just lengthening an existing growing season, effectively creating one where none previously existed. Examples in rice include the development at IRRI of cold-tolerant and high altitude varieties and at both IRRI and WARDA of varieties that can tolerate adverse soil conditions like acidity, alkalinity, iron toxicity and salinity. Other examples are the selection and development work on warm-tolerant varieties of wheat at CIMMYT and of potato at CIP, and of drought- and salinity- tolerant chickpea lines at ICRISAT. Work of this type makes it possible to extend the range of a crop outside its normal habitat and can thus give farmers a wider range of options for devising counter-seasonal strategies through crop diversification. Livestock-based systems

Toulmin (1984) has provided an account of post-war livestock research in Africa that with some variation could be applied throughout most of the developing world. She identifies three distinct phases, the first of which she calls the veterinary phase. This continued until about the end of the 1950s and was oriented towards the control of the major epizootic livestock diseases. This orientation she sees as 'a consequence of the memory of devastating disease outbreaks like the rinderpest epidemic at the end of the nineteenth century and the very real menace to stock from a number of other diseases' (ibid, p. 15). The second, or scientific and technological phase, came in the 1950s and 1960s, after considerable success had been achieved in disease control, and nutrition was increasingly coming to be regarded as at least as important a factor as disease in limiting livestock productivity. During this period 'the main emphasis was placed on genetic improvements through breeding and selection and the introduction of management systems and technology developed for commercial producers' {idem). Such an emphasis was typical of the period, and stressed largely imported technology without much regard for the socio-economic conditions in which it would have to be adopted. Hence there was, especially in countries like Kenya and Zimbabwe, which retained a large European settler population (and in Botswana, which tended to follow a similar path), very heavy emphasis on the development of crossbreeds which would, it was argued, combine the disease resistance of local breeds with the high yield potential of exotics.13 Recommendations on the nutritional side of crossbred livestock improvement programmes required a level of inputs and a standard of husbandry that

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the smallholder was unable to maintain for food crops, let alone fodder. Although Toulmin does not herself make the comparison, this approach had strong parallels in the contemporaneous development of HYVs on the crop side. And, like HYVs, crossbreeds perform less well than local varieties and species if they are not well nourished. The third, and present, phase of livestock research has been one of reassessment, farming systems and socio-economic research in which 'economic

constraints and social institutions became relevant subjects for study, not as parameters that must be changed tofita particular technology, but rather as features of the landscape that researchers may work within' (ibid, p. 16). This new approach was given a sense of urgency by the drought that was by then affecting much of Eastern Africa and the Sahel, because 'it was seen that little was known about traditional herding systems, actual levels of livestock and pasture productivity and their variability, the social institutions and objectives of traditional producers, and the economic environment and constraints under which they were operating' {idem). Within the framework of this new approach, IARCs concerned with livestock research have generally shown a more acute awareness than their counterparts in crop improvement programmes of seasonality as an issue in its own right. This is perhaps not so surprising in view of the geographical concentration of these centres in Africa, a continent which has probably suffered more than any other in recent years from the increased seasonal stresses that accompany a steadily diminishing ratio of agricultural resources to population. In particular, by the late 1980s ILCA's reports had begun to reveal a deep awareness of, and concern for, seasonality problems in the livestock sector. Much of its research programme had by then come to address the problem of critical dry-season feed shortages throughout sub-Saharan Africa, and even critical wet-season shortages in particular environments. In Latin America, CIAT has addressed a similar set of issues, leading, among other things, to the introduction of the wild legume Centrosema acutifolium from Colombia into the flat grassy savannas of other parts of Latin America (270 million hectares of which are found in adjoining parts of Brazil, Colombia, Guyana and Venezuela). This legume tolerates the acid, infertile soils of the region, and cattle pastured on an association of C. acutifolium and native grasses showed a dry-season liveweight gain instead of a loss which occurred on native grasses alone. This type of innovation, however, would be much easier to introduce in the ranching systems of Latin America than it would be in the open access systems that characterize many of the livestock

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production systems of Africa, particularly nomadic and semi-nomadic systems. Farming systems research

From the viewpoint of the seasonality problem,' systems' research is at its most useful when it takes a 'whole farm' or 'farming systems' approach. Because the systems are so complex, this approach is correspondingly difficult to adopt in practice (as distinct from principle), particularly for commodity based research institutes. Nevertheless, a commendable start has been made by several IARCs; and the more closely they have adopted it the greater has tended to be their success in addressing the seasonality problems of the farmer. Adoption of the farming systems research (FSR) approach has focused some attention on the resource use, as distinct from the purely production, aspects of seasonality. This is illustrated by work at IITA on rice-based farming systems in the 8 5 million hectares of inland valleys to be found in West and Central Africa. In these areas the adoption of the FSR approach has led to the identification of an opportunity for increasing the productivity of rice-based systems through ' alleviating labor bottlenecks during the peak periods of the rainy season, intensifying the cropping activities during the labour slack period of the dry season, and identifying high-yielding but short season rice and other crop varieties' (IITA 1988, p. 55). Similarly, ILCA's FSR work has led it to focus considerable attention on the role of draught animals in crop production, in the belief that an acute shortage of labour for land preparation 'is one of the main factors contributing to low agricultural productivity in sub-Saharan Africa' (ILCA 1988, p. 36). This type of attention to the seasonal dimension of crop-animal interactions is an important outcome of the FSR approach at a number of IARCs, even those whose mandates do not specifically include the livestock sector. Thus in North Africa, ICARDA has developed crop rotations that will provide year-round feed for sheep, 'taking account of the seasonal fluctuations imposed by the lambing and fattening cycles' (ICARDA 1988, p. 16). The fact that many Third World crops are dual purpose is now also beginning, albeit belatedly, to be recognized. ICRISAT, for example, has discovered that in many areas of the semi-arid tropics fodder crops are in such chronically short supply, that a supposed by-product like cowpea hay actually fetches as high a price as cowpea grain. As a result, it has become one of the principle objectives of the Institute's cowpea programme to select short-duration cultivars for both grain and hay yield (ICRISAT 1988 a).

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A fascinating example from CIMMYT (Byerlee etal. 1987) reveals just how non-responsive to farmers' needs and perceptions some agricultural research centres were before the adoption of the FSR approach. Farmers in the irrigated Swat Valley, Pakistan's largest maize-growing district, had been following practices that differed sharply from recommended ones for fifteen years. They broadcast the seed instead of row-planting it, used seeding rates that greatly exceeded recommended levels, and thinned the plants continuously throughout the season. After the adoption of the FSR approach, three different sets of diagnostic surveys of their farming systems were conducted in the valley at various times throughout the cropping cycle. It was found that: (a) maize played a crucial role in feeding livestock, especially during the cold winter season when feed was in short supply, and (b) livestock played an important role in the farm's income generation. Approximately 100 000 plants per hectare were removed for green fodder, and this together with dry maize stover (residues) was stall-fed to animals at different times of the year. This feed accounted for almost half of the value of production from the maize fields and the joint feed and food produce was worth more than the recommended practices and variety would have yielded, for the recommended variety was not density-tolerant, and therefore not fully dual-purpose. As a result of this work, the recommended variety was switched from a full-season, to a mid-season/density-tolerant type, which still provided the green fodder, allowed the farmers greater flexibility in planting dates and, when phosphorus was applied, increased grain yields. CG or not CG ?

Table 8.2 shows a network of institutes that between them cover quite a wide research agenda. However, in terms of what needs to be covered, this agenda resembles a rather ill-made patchwork quilt. In some areas the patches overlap, while in others there are gaping holes. As far as research on the seasonality issue is concerned, these holes represent some very serious gaps indeed, for many of the commodities and environmental factors earlier identified as important sources of diversity and complementarity, and hence as potentially vital components of counter-seasonal strategies, are not included in the agendas of the CG-supported centres. In crop research the commodity focus of the CG centres is on roots and tubers, foodgrains, pulses and, to a much lesser extent, oilseeds. In livestock only three types of animal receive attention: cattle, sheep and goats. There is a limited amount of research on woody perennials, but mainly as possible sources of livestock feed (at ILCA) or as components

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of alley cropping patterns (at IITA). The excellent potential of trees and shrubs as providers of, for example, out-of-season food, fuel, or materials for handicrafts, does not figure in the CG centres' research agendas. The potential contribution of horticulture to the quality of diet during the season of malnutrition is similarly neglected. Small animal species, like poultry and rabbits, together with fish, have the advantage of being both fast growing and relatively cheap, and therefore have important counter-seasonal potential, but these are not the focus of CG-supported attention. Ironically these very commodities could be of especial importance to the disadvantaged. The landless, for example, may have no fields, but they often have at least a small piece of homestead land which could support a kitchen garden, perhaps a few multi-purpose trees (ideally in a 'stacked' system) and some small stock, used either for income generation or directly as food and fuel supplements for the off-season. Even among families with some farm land, such homestead activities are particularly important to women, old people and children. Ease of access to homestead areas is particularly important where female seclusion is practised. If there are gaps in the commodity areas, there are bigger gaps in the non-commodity sphere. Irrigation and water management are crucial factors in extending growing seasons. While the growing of crops under irrigation has been a bias of the CG centres, at least in the past, management standards for this often vital resource has not. Yet these standards have been steadily declining throughout the developing world. As more and more irrigation structures are erected, fewer and fewer resources are being put into water management to ensure timely, ecologically-sustainable and equitable distribution of supplies (IIMI 1988). Soils are another such area. It was argued earlier that local variation in the soil environment can be an important source of diversity, which in turn provides scope for staggering crop seasons within the meso-environment. There is no CG centre with a remit to focus on this type of research. Yet there are international agricultural research centres with remits to conduct research in such areas. There is, for example, an Asian Vegetable Research and Development Center, an International Board for Soil Research and Management, an International Center for Living Aquatic Resource Management, an International Council for Research in Agroforestry, an International Fertilizer Development Center, and an International Irrigation Management Institute, none of which is CGsupported. Like the CG centres, these IARCs have also shifted their research agendas so that they reflect the seasonality issue. To cite just a few examples, AVRDC has done substantial work on short-duration

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varieties of soyabean, mungbean, Chinese cabbage, tomato and sweet potato, while ICRAF zones its research networks according to seasonality of rainfall patterns. Hence in Africa the Council supports a research network for the selection of multi-purpose tree species for the bimodal rainfall highlands of East Africa, covering Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda and a Unimodal Upland Plateau research project in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia. To identify such gaps in the CG system is not to condemn either the Group itself or the centres it supports. The reasons for concentrating on particular areas are clear and rational. Quite early on the IARCs decided to focus their limited resources on a restricted number of commodities, species, zones and target groups (especially the first) in order not to spread their research effort too thinly. It would be difficult to argue with such a decision. Moreover, in crop research the areas in which the CG centres have concentrated their resources are some of the most crucial in terms of the problems of Third World hunger and malnutrition, namely starchy staples and pulses ('the poor person's meat'). Some people regard livestock research as of low priority, because, in input—output terms, animals are inefficient producers of food (IDRC 1986). Others regard the end products as luxuries, and therefore argue against support on these grounds. In Third World terms such views can be highly misleading. Aside from a few commercial producers, livestock are fed mainly on crop residues or weeds, or else grazed on lands that are sub-marginal for crop production, so that they impose little opportunity-cost in terms of other foodstuffs. In counter-seasonal terms livestock provide crucial complementarities with crop production. The two very often provide products at different times of year and impose a different pattern of seasonal resource demands. They are often also mutually supporting in terms of inputs and output. Small quantities of animal produce may contribute very significantly to the nutrition of under- or malnourished people, either directly or through sale or barter to provide hungryseason staples. Livestock also form the economic base for pastoralists, an often disadvantaged group for whom animal produce is decidedly not a luxury. So long as the amount on offer from the aid donors is not substantially increased, spreading the resources available to CG over yet more centres while still maintaining support for existing ones would dilute its effort probably to the point of ineffectiveness. The total of about $2oom per year which the centres receive through the CG may sound like a lot of money, but - such is the scale of human values - it

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represents only about one-sixth of the cost of a single Trident nuclear submarine. Even in research terms it is not a particularly large sum, being less than the research budget of the average large US university and less than 0.5 per cent of global expenditure on military research (IDRC 1986). So long as more funding is not on offer, the central issue becomes one of allocating scarce resources between competing end uses in such a way as to maximize the extent to which agreed objectives are met. The fact that some of the patches on CGIAR's 'quilt' overlap is prima facie evidence that there is a need at least to ask whether overall coverage might not be improved by moving resources to cover some of the more gaping holes elsewhere. It is difficult to believe that the present system owes more to rational resource allocation than to historical accident. To take the obvious example of rice research, the question that must be answered is not whether the environment of West Africa is so different from the rest of the world that a separate rice institute for that area can be justified, but whether the incremental benefits of a second international rice research centre are so great that they justify the CG's supporting WARDA as well as IRRI at the cost of ignoring such other vital areas as horticulture, poultry and culture fisheries. In other areas the degree of overlap is not quite so marked, but, as Table 8.2 shows, there are several other centres of which similar questions could — and should — be asked. In fairness it must be added that some progress has been made towards rationalizing the system. For example, the CG has played an important role in fostering co-operation between the IARCs it supports. Joint research projects are now quite common, sometimes implemented by the stationing of a scientist from one IARC on the premises of another to work collaboratively on a common programme. (CG centres also sometimes collaborate with non-CG IARCs but to a much more limited extent.) There have even been instances of reallocation of parts of research portfolios, as when, despite a fair degree of early success in breeding stress-tolerant varieties, IITA turned over responsibility for research on sweet potato to CIP in 1988.14 IARC-NARC collaboration The effectiveness of the work of the international centres depends largely on the extent to which they are able to collaborate with their national counterparts in the developing countries. Today the international centres tend not to name or issue final varieties. Every year they make thousands of crosses from the banks of genetic material at

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their disposal and release the more promising lines to NARCs. The latter can then use them as parents for further crosses. Alternatively they may test them for local suitability and then, if they wish, issue them directly to farmers. The rate of progress in developing an efficient NARC network has been very uneven. In Asia and Latin America there have been some notable success stories, but in Africa the picture has been very different. One author (Lipton 1985), describing the results of investment in NARCs in Africa as 'dismal', places the blame largely on the inadequacy of the policy frameworks within which they operate. This point is echoed, in slightly more diplomatic language, by a source at the centre of the issues concerned: The national agricultural research systems have had less impact in Africa than in other developing regions. This is partly explained by the diversity of African environments, poorly developed infrastructure, government policies biased against agriculture, and the small size of many national systems; over half the countries of West and Central Africa spend under $3 million annually on agricultural research... our technology is of little value for countries lacking the capacity for effective collaboration (IITA 1988, p. 17) (emphasis added). Others, like Collinson (1986) and Idachaba (1986), point to fragmentation of responsibility for research and extension and to structural failings within the African NARCs themselves, although they do also emphasize the relative youth and inexperience of many of the research staff. In Africa, not only are resource constraints and policy failures especially acute, but the problems the continent faces, most particularly in countries south of the Sahara, are awesome. Africa is particularly susceptible to seasonal drought, and irrigation facilities are least developed of all the developing regions (see Table 5.2). Moreover, foreign exchange and income constraints, which are of course most severe in the poorest countries, make the adoption of fertilizer and other purchased inputs unusually problematic. It is hardly surprising, then, that Africa has the lowest rate of adoption of modern varieties (Table 8.1). Again this applies even more strongly to sub-Saharan Africa than to the continent as a whole, since available modern varieties are mostly unsuited to local conditions which can be unfavourable in the extreme. Sub-Saharan Africa has had little assistance from the IARCs in this respect, since 'The major impact of the international centers to date has been in what are sometimes referred to as favorable environments — where rainfall is adequate to grow wheat or rice or

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where irrigation is available . . . As yet, the IARCs have little claim to having produced improved technologies for less favorable environments' (Anderson et al. 1985, p. 1082). Asia and Latin America, with their generally more favourable conditions, their relatively advanced network of NARCs (and, in the Asian case, well-developed irrigation system) are correspondingly better placed in the league of adopters of new biological technologies.15 It is ironic that the countries whose NARCs are least developed, and therefore most in need of the assistance of the IARCs, are least able to make effective use of such assistance as is available. The authors of one wide-ranging review of the relationship between the two observed: 'Those (countries) with well-developed research systems are able effectively to use the centers' products and even make requests for materials, training, publications, and other services. Countries with embryonic research systems are less likely to test technologies effectively' (Anderson et al. 1985).16

Implications for policy and planning

it was argued that the association between seasonality and poverty could best be understood within the framework of a mean-variance matrix in which, for any one of a number of variables, a low mean value indicates poverty, and a high variance across the year reflects seasonality. It was also argued that over a number of years mean and variance are mutually interdependent, with high variance occasionally tripping a mechanism that pushes down the mean and a falling mean tending to increase intra-year variance. There are two basic linkages at work here. The first is direct. Seasonal variation in income itself imposes costs, which reduce the proportion of gross income available to meet consumption needs. The second linkage is less direct, resulting from the way in which those who are rather better off, in terms of either wealth or social status, are able to pass on seasonal stresses to those who are worse off, either temporarily (by appropriating consumption goods during the hungry season) or permanently (by acquiring investment goods). The policy implications of the evidence presented in previous chapters can best be understood within the above framework, and it will therefore be recapitulated briefly within such a construct as a starting point for the discussion that follows. Beginning at the happier end of the wealth—poverty spectrum in the Third World, that occupied by the more economically successful among the developing countries, these, like the developed countries, have reduced seasonality of national income by deriving an increasing proportion of it from non-seasonal industries, particularly manufacturing. In many of them there has also been a reduction in the seasonality problem of their rural inhabitants, who have obtained such benefits as increasing access to non-seasonal employment, improved I N CHAPTER I

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communications and a better functioning market mechanism (which, among other things, dampens inter-seasonal price spreads for farm produce, inputs and consumption goods), labour-augmenting technologies like irrigation, and an improved credit market which moves financial resources between areas of simultaneous seasonal cash surplus and deficit. In such countries, then, the combined effect of industrialization, investment in infrastructure and market development has been to achieve an absolute reduction in seasonal variation in production, incomes and resource use. Lower down the wealth—poverty spectrum, such resolutions are less readily available. Here, solutions which achieve only a relative reduction in seasonal variation are more likely to be adopted, including those that pass on seasonal stresses from those who are better-placed to those lower down the socio-economic scale. Thus, for example, in countries still in the relatively early stages of industrialization, the relative seasonal stability of the urban areas is achieved at the expense of increased seasonal stress in the rural areas. One way in which this has been done historically is to siphon off agricultural labour into urban occupations that retain it even when it is needed for peak operations back home — not balking at the use of coercive measures when market forces fail to deliver these services. Another way, and one that is becoming increasingly common, is to over-exploit features of the landscape that could otherwise be used to counter seasonality in agriculture, for example through destructive ' mining' of soils, forests and aquifers and the conversion of prime agricultural land to other uses. This forces agriculturalists into more fragile areas, where marginalization and environmental degradation tend to cause increased seasonality of production and resource use. Moving further down the scale towards the poorest countries, the seasonality problem at the national level becomes steadily more pronounced, as an increasing proportion of national income is derived from biological, and therefore seasonal, industries, especially agriculture, and from a small manufacturing sector which is also seasonal because it depends for the supply of raw materials on biological industries, and for demand on customers whose incomes are highly seasonal. Within the rural areas themselves, the pattern of the relatively welloff being best able to protect themselves against seasonality, sometimes at the expense of the worse-off, is repeated. Some farmers are able to adopt technological-cum-managerial solutions by using variation in the physical environment to diversify production and thus smooth out seasonal peaks and troughs in production and resource requirements.

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In order to do this, however, they need access either to the resources of a relatively wide range of agro-environmental locations, or to landaugmenting investments like irrigation. The poorer a farmer the narrower becomes the range of environments that can be exploited and resources that can be tapped, down to the point at which the landless may have access only to homestead land and what open-access resources may remain from a generally and steadily-shrinking stock. An alternative to capturing a range of production conditions at the mesoenvironmental level is to exploit differences at the macro-environmental level, particularly through seasonal labour migration. However, even this is a less viable option for the poorest, for neither can they afford the transaction costs of migration nor do they have the connections to guarantee them remunerative employment at the other end. The poorest families, therefore, deprived of more dignified means of countering seasonal stress, are often forced to mobilize purely social survival strategies, such as the cultivation of dependency linkages with those that are better off. The approaches outlined in the previous paragraph imply only a differential impact of seasonal stress. The actual passing down of such stress from better-off, to worse-off, families is triggered by less predictable events like the occurrence of a bad year, or the introduction of labour-displacing technological change. In the former case the poor are forced to sell off income-generating assets, or pledge future income, so that in future seasonal income variation increases as mean income declines. The not-so-poor can acquire these goods and services at bargain prices, thereby increasing their own future counter-seasonal capabilities. Large farmers' investment in labour-saving technologies, especially agricultural machinery, as a counter to the problem of high peak season management workloads, usually means that their seasonality problems are eased, at the expense of reducing the peak season earnings upon which poor families depend. These two 'stress transmission' mechanisms are, moreover, often mutually reinforcing: investment decisions that remove or reduce peak season off-farm employment for marginal farmers may force them into distress sales of land and other assets, which can then be bought up by the larger farmer whose investment in machinery has already eased the peak season problem of managing a larger farm. Even relatively poor groups can sometimes pass on seasonal stress to those even worse off, as in the case of an influx of seasonal migrants from other areas (by those who can afford the cost of this) making it possible for ' patrons' in these areas to slacken the ties that bind them to local' clients' who are dependent on them for slack season income.

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Finally, at the intra-family level, the men are often able to pass on seasonal stresses to other family members by appropriating a largerthan-fair share of leisure, cash and consumption goods at times when these are in short supply, thereby increasing the busy-season workloads of the women and reducing the hungry season consumption shares of both women and children. This is not to say that intra-family discrimination affects only the poorer families, but in the less poor families there may be enough food for all even in the hungry season, so that differences in social status and corresponding discrimination in the distribution of assets and decision making power tend to affect rather less immediate needs. Both the theoretical arguments and the empirical evidence presented earlier indicate that the interacting and mutually-reinforcing effects of poverty and seasonality are neither self-limiting nor self-correcting. In particular, the mechanisms whereby the vicious circle of distress sales leading to falling asset prices and therefore further distress sales and further price falls, does not have a mirror image of a good year in which the earlier losses of the poor are recouped. In any case in poor countries the interaction of continued population growth, resource depletion and thoughtless technology transfer does not make for a stable world in which the rural disadvantaged can hope for income in good and bad years to oscillate about a constant mean. If a problem will not go away by itself, and more particularly, where a problem seems to be getting worse when no corrective measures are taken, there is a strong prima facie case for intervention. Of course some will argue against interventions on the grounds that these are at best ineffective and at worst counter-productive, and that the best approach is to leave the problem to the free interplay of market forces. This is nonsense. Market forces do not interplay freely in developing countries, particularly the poorest of these, for there the market is characterized by a hotchpotch of monopolies, cartels, restrictive practices, interlinked markets and other restraints on trade. The minimum role that interventions have to play in such a situation is to open up the market to competition and so permit market forces to operate in fact, rather than fantasy. But interventions go further than this. If government has a role to play in the building of economic and social infrastructure, if it must build publicly funded roads and railways, schools and health services and an agricultural research and extension network, levying taxes and seeking development assistance to pay for them; these measures in themselves constitute interventions. And the poorer the country the greater will the marginal impact of each intervention tend to be. The question of where to target such interventions so that they

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give the maximum return in terms of meeting policy and planning objectives must therefore also be addressed. Closer to the other end of the political spectrum it may be argued that the real problem is not seasonality, but poverty, and that the real priority is therefore to achieve targeted income growth, either through redistributive measures (especially land reform), or through economic development, or both. This process, it may be argued, will, by reducing poverty, render the seasonality problem increasingly irrelevant. The issue of land reform is a specific policy matter whose seasonal dimensions will be explored later. On the more general question of 'economic development', however, some observations may be appropriate at this point. First, it should be stressed that policies aimed at economic development and those targeted at tackling the seasonality problem do not have to be alternatives. Economic development is for most countries a long, slow process, and, while some rural inhabitants may benefit through translation to better paid, non-seasonal industries, or through having counter-seasonal, income-raising infrastructural investment (like roads and irrigation schemes) constructed in their neighbourhoods, the vast majority will not benefit for a very long time. It is sad but true to have to say that in the poorest countries, unless there is some dramatic and unforeseen change of circumstances, the probability is very strong that no-one alive today will see the type of fundamental economic transformation that has today been achieved by, say, the 'newly industrialized' countries of Asia. Indeed, as was pointed out above, partly as a direct result of what happens in the early phases of economic growth, seasonal stress in general, and the problem of such stresses being passed down from the stronger to the weaker in particular, are, for the majority, likely to get considerably worse. Moreover, as has been demonstrated in earlier chapters, there are both theoretical and empirical reasons for believing that the regular occurrence of bad seasons in itself is poverty-reinforcing and helps hold the victims of poverty entrapped. Far from distracting attention from efforts to achieve poverty reduction through economic development, a flanking attack on the seasonal aspect of poverty should complement more frontal approaches. It is certainly not being proposed here that the agricultural or rural development strategy of poor countries should be re-tooled in order to meet the challenge of seasonality. What is being advocated is that such strategies be made much more responsive to the immediate and perceived (as distinct from the long-term and assumed) needs and priorities of farmers and other inhabitants of the rural areas. If this is done, then where — and only where — seasonality is locally perceived as

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a serious problem will it become a serious candidate for inclusion in a general strategy aimed at alleviating hardship in the rural areas. To put the case this way is essentially to argue for more cost-effective development efforts in agriculture and rural development. 'Costeffectiveness ' here is defined at three levels. First, and most obviously, where the desired effect is an economic aim like increased food production, this is most likely to be achieved at a given cost if farmers are consulted when programmes are designed and policies formulated. This will help avoid some of the expensive mistakes that have been made in the past through ignorance of farmers' needs, resources and priorities. In most developing countries, however, stated policy concerns go beyond mere production goals, and embrace such aims as poverty reduction and equity considerations. Where this intention is serious, development efforts aimed at helping the most disadvantaged groups in the rural areas (women, children, landless labourers, and economic minorities, as well as poor and marginal farmers) will become cost-effective if they take the needs, resources and priorities of this section of the community into account. And the problems of this group, it must be stressed, are not usually the same as those of 'the farmer'. Since these members of the community are the most likely to suffer from seasonal stress, the more their needs and priorities are taken into consideration, the more likely is seasonality to emerge as a real policy issue. The third level at which cost-effectiveness must be considered takes the time element explicitly into account. As was shown in Chapter 1, where there is a hungry season the marginal utility of a given amount of food is greater in that season than at any other time of year. A similar argument applies to the provision of safe water supplies and fuel. It applies to other interventions also: employment generation measures targeted at the slack season will create income when it is most desperately needed; measures to control disease vectors like the mosquito will be more effective if concentrated at particular points in the pest's life cycle. Of course, targeting interventions for particular times of year may in some cases be more expensive than doing so at others, but, given the magnitude of the increase in welfare that can be expected from carefully timed interventions, in most cases the increase in effectiveness can usually be assumed to outweigh any increase in cost. Finally, taking the needs and priorities of the most disadvantaged into account will automatically address the 'powerlessness' problem they face, for enabling such people to influence the course of development is, by definition, part of an empowerment process. Powerlessness is an important aspect of the seasonality problem of the

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disadvantaged, yet one that is surprisingly often neglected even in definitions of economic development. In their seminal work on seasonality, Chambers et al. adopt a World Bank definition that stresses the improvement in the economic and social lives of the rural poor, including small farmers, tenants and the landless (1981, p. 218). Obviously poverty and powerlessness are strongly interlinked, but they are not identical. A poor man may, within his own family, wield almost absolute power, and it is this that enables him to pass down seasonal stress to his wife and children. Conversely, a woman from a relatively comfortable family may still be powerless to influence decisions which impart a markedly seasonal rhythm to her duties of work and childbearing. Even where the problems of poverty and powerlessness overlap in the same individual, the effects of these two conditions can have different, if mutually reinforcing, effects, so that rural development efforts in poor countries, as well as addressing the poverty issue, must also confront the much more difficult question of how to empower people to take an increasing degree of control over their own destinies. This has obvious implications in, for example, the political, social and educational spheres, which are largely beyond the scope of the present book. However, it also has important implications for policy formulation in agriculture and rural development, as will be argued later. It will be obvious that any policy implications that emerge from a wide-ranging review such as this must be conceptual rather than prescriptive in nature. This book is meant to influence policy making in a particular direction, rather than provide some kind of step-by-step guide to the incorporation of seasonal problems into development planning. The effects of seasonality differ so enormously depending upon agro-ecological and socio-economic setting, that it would be dangerous as well as foolish to attempt to suggest solutions purporting to be of general applicability. • Bias in policy formulation Chambers' catalogue of biases that prevent the perception of seasonal adversity has been quoted several times in the preceding chapters. Parallel to these, sometimes overlapping with them, there is another set of biases which would hamper the adoption of counter-seasonal policies, even were the problem itself fully recognized. Of course all policy making, everywhere, is subject to bias. However, in developing countries the ones that help govern policy formulation in agriculture are especially strong. It would be irresponsible to ignore this problem,

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to play down the constraints facing any attempt to correct it, or to mince words when discussing the difficulties. URBAN BIAS

So much has been written on this particular bias that little need be added here except a few points specifically concerning the seasonality issue. With few exceptions, policy in agriculture and related sectors in developing countries is formulated in order to serve urban needs, prominent among which are economic development (however defined) and regime maintenance. Regimes are, of course, city-based, as are the forces most likely to topple them. Economic development is usually viewed in terms of modernization, and new urban developments like manufacturing are more obviously modern than traditional rural activities like farming, a bias which is often, if not always, strengthened by the fact that agricultural policy is typically made by people who are either city-born or the urbanized sons of the rural elite. As a result of these factors, agricultural policy tends to be geared largely towards securing (a) cheap and plentiful supplies of food for the cities, (b) raw materials for domestic factories and (c) foreign exchange from agricultural exports. All of these will help fuel (largely urban-based) economic development. The effect of urban bias is usually to add to the rural problem of seasonal stress. The historical case of labour supply for urban areas illustrates this, but this is not an isolated case. Agricultural research provides a further illustration. As shown in the previous chapter, the classic approach, at both national and international levels, of seeing agricultural development purely in terms of production levels (primarily to secure grain supplies for the urban areas) led to the ' green revolution' that: (a) excluded poor farmers and those in difficult environments,1 (b) eroded varietal diversity, and hence led, inter alia, to a tightening of production bottlenecks, which in turn gave a powerful impetus to labour-displacing mechanization, and (c) neglected the fact that for the poor in the rural areas food often has a higher marginal utility in some seasons than in others. Another example of urbanskewed perceptions worsening the seasonality problem in the countryside is agricultural price controls and the low-price requisitioning of agricultural produce. These may (temporarily) serve to increase food supplies to the urban consumer, but, apart from being counter-productive in the long run, they also serve to erode counterseasonal buffers (in the shape of stored food or money) that are important to rural communities.

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RESOURCE BASE AND GENDER BIAS

To say that agricultural policy is biased towards serving the urban areas is not to say that it has not benefited any farmers. At least some benefits must be passed on if only as a means of inducing them to produce a marketable surplus. However, partly as a result of urban bias, agricultural policy on research, extension, settlement, credit, etc. tends to stress the development of commercialized, at the expense of subsistence, agriculture. Unfortunately, the poorer the farm family the less of a marketable surplus will it have, in both relative and absolute terms, so that the farmers with the greatest seasonal problems receive the least attention. This type of bias also harms subsistence-based economic minorities, such as pastoral nomads and hunter-gatherers, in favour of settled, commercialized agriculture. Not all people who earn their living from agriculture are farmers. Yet, while every government has a ministry of agriculture, whose stated responsibilities include a requirement to help ' the farmer', how many governments have a ministry specifically charged with helping other, poorer, rural groups, such as landless agricultural labourers? Yet, not only do the poorest groups suffer most from seasonal income fluctuations, but policy measures designed to help the farmer — such as subsidized farm mechanization — often pass down seasonal stresses to them. A similar set of biases increase the seasonal problems of rural women. For example, as was shown in the previous chapter, agricultural research has tended increasingly to adopt a 'systems' approach, and this has had quite some success in identifying farmers' problems. Unfortunately, however, what passes for farming systems research, could often more accurately be described as farmer systems research, where for 'farmer' one can read 'male head of household'.2 It seems to have become an implicit assumption of the approach that the problems of the farmer are the same as those of the household, but this ignores intra-household differences in the nature and seasonal incidence of stresses arising from such factors as gender typing and unequal social status, and from specifically female problems arising from the reproductive cycle. A similar set of biases exist in agricultural extension: there are few female extension workers, and male extensionists often tend, for cultural and other reasons, to talk only to other males. Similarly, agricultural development banks and projects normally follow a policy of lending to the male household head only.

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THE BIAS OF EDUCATION AND STATUS

Institutions concerned with agricultural development are, of course, staffed by people with an often high degree of formal education, a characteristic which throws them into sharp contrast with their clientele in the rural areas who seldom have any formal schooling. There are notable exceptions, but generally speaking the sharp contrast between the levels of formal schooling of the 'professional agriculturalist ' and the farmer - often reinforced by differences in socioeconomic status (which usually allowed the former to obtain schooling in the first place ) — tends to reinforce traditionally hierarchical social structures. These readily lend themselves to a 'top-down' approach whereby the illiteracy of the farmer is equated with ignorance and the development administrator, extensionist, agricultural scientist or policy maker sets policy, on the assumption that he or she knows best what is good for the farmer. In recent years the farming systems research approach has begun to dent these convictions, but there is often still a very long way to go before the illiterate (but far from uneducated) farmer is treated as a professional counterpart who may have ideas and technologies to contribute, as well as receive. BUREAUCRATIC BIAS

There is an often powerful bias within bureaucracies in favour of doing things through central government, or through state-owned corporations. This is adhered to despite a frequently long history of inefficiency and corruption on the part of, for example, public sector monopolies — and even in the face of declared policy moves by politicians in favour of, say decentralization or privatization. This particular set of prejudices impedes not only the development of a profit-oriented private sector, but also hinders the efforts of indigenous voluntary agencies (VAs). Such agencies were to the fore in first identifying the problem of seasonally, its nature, extent and differential impact. They have also taken the lead in pioneering new methods of countering seasonal stress, through, for example, cereal banks, off-season employment generation schemes, locally appropriate low-input agricultural research and extension, and health care targeted at particularly important seasonal diseases. These agencies are often uniquely placed to play such a role, by virtue of their small scale, their flexibility, their specifically-targeted objectives, and the exceptionally high degree of dedication and commitment often shown by their staff. They are, however, unpopular

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with bureaucrats. Finance ministries dislike them because they claim not-for-profit, and therefore tax-free, status. Sometimes line ministries in the relevant fields - usually agriculture, health and education - are also suspicious, particularly where the VAs have been more than usually successful so that, in the eyes of both beneficiaries and funding agencies, the ministry's efforts suffer by comparison. DONOR BIAS

Most bi- and some multi-lateral donor organizations are biased in favour of certain types of regime and economic philosophies, and donors' preferences constitute often powerful forces affecting the formulation of agricultural (and other) policy in developing countries. These influences are pervasive, and can, among other things, have profound implications for the seasonality problem. Aid agencies have traditionally found it easiest tofinancelarge, capital-intensive projects, and such undertakings, by their very nature, have helped reinforce urban bias. In more recent years, however, well-founded criticisms of such activities have induced major donors to diversify their efforts, and some have 'gone into' rural development 'in a big way'. Even so, such activities are often strongly influenced by what Chambers calls ' tarmac' and 'project' bias. They often also require a disproportionate share of the resources of the host country line ministry or other collaborating agency, so that less favoured parts of the country are starved of such resources. Donor agencies are also strongly biased in favour of short-term projects, typically of not more than five years duration, a factor which enables them to change their policies frequently. Sometimes this is done in response to changes in government in the home country. As often as not, however, such shifts apparently reflect no more than a desire for quick results, and a corresponding disappointment with approaches that fail to provide them. This propensity is reinforced by the evident need to keep up with the frequent changes in fashion in development thinking. Hence, for example, farming systems research was an approach favoured by many agencies for about a decade from the mid-1970s. Donors encouraged the adoption of the FSR approach by Third World NARCs and universities were induced to set up FSR training programmes. By the mid-1980s, however, FSR was clearly beginning to fall from favour, while there was a contemporaneous upsurge in interest in environmental themes, such as sustainable agriculture.

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The point about this particular set of biases is not that the concerns that donors and others articulate are irrelevant: in particular circumstances they are often highly pertinent. The problem is that donor bias induces investments by the developing countries themselves, some of which are long-term (particularly investment in people) which subsequently become obsolete (as far as the prospects for funding their activities are concerned), as a result of subsequent shifts in donor policy. Thus development initiatives are abandoned before they have had the opportunity to be properly tested and refined in order to adapt them to local needs, and the entire research—extension—rural development effort of both donors and recipients is distracted from tackling issues in a sustained and systematic way. To list the above biases is not to suggest that there is necessarily a deliberate and cynical effort on the part of the agricultural policy maker to frustrate the aspirations of rural people. More often bias is simply a reflection of a short-time horizon induced by very pressing, and very obvious, imperatives. However when bias, particularly urban bias, is reflected in policy formulation it frequently proves to have forged a double-edged weapon: certain policies may achieve relative stability or some slight degree of industrialization in the short-term, but often they do so at the expense of longer-term development. Even setting aside the serious equity aspects of undue concentration on urban problems and priorities, some fairly powerful economic reasons can be advanced in support of a more balanced approach. First, the more attention is paid to urban development at the expense of rural neglect, the greater is likely to be the flood of migrants leaving the countryside to seek a better life in the cities. Second, this problem will be aggravated by the policy of supporting large-scale, mechanized, surplus-producing farms to provide cheap food for the cities, for such agriculture is labour-displacing and therefore migration-inducing. Third, such agriculture is also import-, capital- and subsidy-intensive, so that it will compete for the very resources required for industrialization. Finally, the relatively high incomes that large farmers require to induce them to produce for the market will generate demand for sophisticated manufactures that cannot be produced in a poor country. This in turn means that consumer imports increase and there is no market-creation effect for local manufacturing industry — the opposite of what would happen if a given increase in rural incomes were more evenly spread. Assuming that a policy decision is reached to attempt a more

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balanced urban—rural, large farmer—small farmer, landholder—labourer approach, the first problem that will have to be confronted is the serious one of information gaps. Such gaps frustrate even the most well-meaning intentions and make interventions non-productive, or even counter-productive. In the specific case of seasonal stress, the preceding chapters have shown that the problem varies very significantly (a) between agro-ecological zones, (b) inside these zones between socio-economic groups, and (c) within such groups along age and gender lines. Thus the problem is pervasive and multi-faceted, and its full policy implications will not be appreciated without a great deal of research. The first requirement, therefore, is for an informationgathering exercise to (a) explore the nature, scope and extent of the problem in different parts of the country, (b) examine traditional coping mechanisms and any threats to these mechanisms in the current situation, (c) identify opportunities for lessening seasonal stress through examining opportunities and potentialities at both macro- and mesoenvironmental levels, and (d) suggest specific policy instruments that might be adopted or adapted for this purpose. • The information-gathering exercise Improved perception does not always require research aimed specifically at the seasonality problem. Often what is required is that an awareness of this dimension of rural deprivation be incorporated into existing research efforts. Naturally this is not a once-for-all exercise, but a continuing one in which techniques are increasingly modified, adapted and improved in the light of experience. In many developing countries the process of policy formulation is already informed by a sometimes considerable degree of empiricism. The problem is that this empirical evidence often ignores, and occasionally deliberately obliterates, the seasonal element (i.e. ' deseasonalizes' the data).3 One reason that seasonality is ignored is that most data collection exercises are cross-sectional, and it is difficult to capture seasonal variation in this way. Even longitudinal studies often miss out important seasons, either because travel is difficult during the rainy-hungry season, or because the busy season is the time when respondents have most to report, but least time available for reporting it. Capturing seasonal variation in rural deprivation without spending too much time or incurring too much expense requires often considerable ingenuity. Some longitudinal data are collected regularly for purposes that have little or nothing to do with the improvement of policy formulation, but could be put to this purpose. However, such data can be misleading if

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the context in which they are collected is not properly understood. Quite a number of researchers have analysed hospital records to try to identify the seasonal incidence of debilitating disease. The present author tried to do this once in southern Ethiopia and quickly learned that treatment of various diseases peaked during the local coffee harvest, simply because that was the only time when people had cash to pay for treatment. The problem with the data in this particular case became clear almost immediately, but in other cases the dangers of false deduction are perhaps less obvious. This is illustrated by the following quotation. As people gather together and communities have large celebrations during the Muslim holiday of Id in September, it might be anticipated that a more highly contagious disease such as measles would show a peak during September/ October, whereas less contagious droplet-spread diseases might not demonstrate a rise (Goetz 1981, p. 184). The first problem here is that there are not one but two Id festivals in the Muslim calendar. Second, as was explained in Chapter 2, the date of any festival in this calendar advances by 10-11 days each year, so that the researcher should have been looking for a moving, rather than a fixed, peak in infection. Sources like hospital records, then, have to be used with caution, but other records may not be quite so open to misinterpretation. If school attendance records show a pronounced peak in absences at particular times of year, this may well indicate the timing, and give some idea of the magnitude, of the problem of child labour use in the peak season. However, even here some caution is required, as it is normally only the relatively advantaged rural families which can afford either the cash or the opportunity-cost of sending their children to school, so that the problem may be much more widespread than school attendance records suggest. Other sources of longitudinal data often exist, for example market prices of essential foodstuffs are collected almost everywhere, and since the people who collect these data are themselves consumers, they should be in a strong position to ensure that the recorded information is reasonably accurate. Other data sources are more country-specific. For instance, in some countries daily data are collected in livestock markets, recording prices and volumes of sales for various purposes. The degree of confidence that can be placed in such information is obviously something that has to be decided on a case-bycase basis, but if they are found to be reasonably accurate, regular seasonal patterns in the level of either sales or prices in a given market, or marked seasonal variation in these patterns across different markets,

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may hold important clues to underlying seasonal factors which are of crucial relevance to policy formulation. The point is that there are often sources of data that can be tapped quickly and inexpensively to uncover and analyse important underlying seasonality problems - always provided that the limitations of the data are fully understood. Whatever secondary data are available, however, there is little doubt that at least some primary data will have to be collected for purposes of seasonal analysis. Chambers and Maxwell have suggested two approaches that would be especially useful in countering the 'seasonality-obscuring perceptions of urban based professionals'. The first is the 'top-down' approach of seasonal mapping — i.e. indicating 'at the very least' agricultural busy seasons, seasonal incidence of disease — matched and analysed to identify zones of adverse agricultural-health linkages. The second is the 'bottom-up' approach of having local-level staff carry out seasonal analysis: health, agricultural and other staff, identifying health, farming, nutritional, poverty and other relations in areas in which they work. The crux is implementation: ' The best way forward may be to develop methods of seasonal analysis and a repertoire of interventions which are simple, manageable, replicable and effective, and which involve rural people as partners' (1981, p. 235). Two relatively new research approaches - systems research and 'rapid rural appraisal', offer particularly encouraging prospects for exploring the seasonality problem, and are therefore worth looking at in at least a little detail.

SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Farming systems research (FSR) was introduced into the Third World principally to make agricultural research more relevant to the needs of the farmer. Although FSR is not primarily aimed at gathering seasonal data, if done properly it inevitably does so, and, as was shown in the previous chapter, it can contribute greatly to our understanding of seasonality. Some of the practical problems in the application of the FSR approach were discussed earlier, particularly its tendency to mask intra-household distinctions, but even when a 'whole farm' approach is truly adopted, there are important limits as to how far it can address the seasonality problems of the more disadvantaged sections of rural society. The concept of a system was defined in Chapter 1 in terms of a boundary within which linkages are strong, and across which they are

THE INFORMATION-GATHERING EXERCISE 229 weak. One could in fact postulate a hierarchy of systems, starting at the level of the biosphere, and descending through the agro-ecosystem, the watershed, the village society, the farming household and the cropping system down to the individual plant, each level of which constitutes effectively a subsystem of the one above it.4 In agriculture, scientific investigations and interventions have traditionally concentrated at the lower end of this scale, a focus which led to the ' green revolution' with its emphasis on single crops such as hybrid maize or semi-dwarf wheat and rice. Later it was accepted that, for most farmers, each crop is only a subsystem of a more important cropping system, and later still the view gained ground that cropping systems were themselves only subsystems of more cohesive farming systems. In other words the identification of the system boundary has been shifting steadily outwards, as it became clear that important functional relationships crossed ' boundaries' that had implicitly already been identified as fairly impermeable. As far as the seasonality problem is concerned, a major difficulty with selecting even the farm as the basic unit for systems analysis is that the poorest households, while they suffer most from seasonal deprivation, are often not farm households at all. Numerically the most important among these are landless agricultural labourers: FSR not only ignores the seasonal, and other, problems of this group, but may even worsen them, since it aims to solve the farmer's problems, neglecting the fact that the farmer's problem may be the labourer's boon - as in the case of high peak season wage rates. Even within farming households, the poorer the household the less likely is it that relationships with elements in other systems will be weak. Consider, for example, a farm family too poor to own draught animals and consequently obliged to wait until the main ploughing season is over before being able to borrow or hire animals from a neighbour who has finished this task. Can such a farm be described as a ' system' in the above sense ? Similarly, it is difficult to apply such a definition to a farm family which must work for others in the peak season before beginning to work on their own fields, in order to pay off hungry-season debts or other obligations. One systems approach that is particularly appropriate to the study of seasonal deprivation at the household level, regardless of size or economic base, is the 'new household economics' (NHE). The relevance of this approach has been well summarized by Jiggins (1982), who notes that it is 'distinguished by its recognition that households produce as well as consume and that many goods and services produced

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in the household are consumed in the household' (ibid, pp. 10-11). It takes as its primary concern: The allocation of household resources, especially time, to market work, home production and consumption of goods and services, and leisure. Its importance to seasonality studies is twofold: (i) the emphasis on the allocation of time by various household members to all the tasks necessary for the household's survival and reproduction; and (ii) its recognition of the differential distribution of costs and benefits between household members. By thus disaggregating the 'household' into its component actors, studies using the perspective of the NHE have revealed the variations in the intra-household distribution of seasonalities' costs and benefits to men, women, and children (ibid, p. 11). Often even the household is not the most appropriate level at which to conduct seasonal analysis. In some cases the relevant system may be a socio-economic one, such as the extended family and other kinship groupings, mutual aid groups, labour exchange networks, and patron-client relations. Often the strongest systems, those with the least permeable boundaries, are to be found at the ' whole village' level, for links with the wider economy are indeed often weak. This very weakness helps perpetuate the problem of seasonal deprivation, for the weaker the connections to the outside world, the less can be done to exploit complementarities with other agro-ecological zones in a way that dampens the amplitude of seasonal income and workload cycles. However, not all of the relevant systems are to be found at the village level. Where migration is an important counter-seasonal mechanism, systems must be identified and analysed at the spatial-cum-temporal level, as in the case of the pastoral cycle and other macro-environmental migration systems examined in earlier chapters. An example of how this type of analysis might be approached quickly and inexpensively is provided in the Appendix. Another level at which systems analysis might be conducted at a scale larger than the village is that of the ' agroecosystem' discussed by Conway (1986, 1989). Figure 9.1 below provides an illustration of seasonal analysis at this level. RAPID RURAL APPRAISAL

One of the greatest problems about conventional approaches to ' systems' research is that it is expensive and time-consuming, and one of the benefits of Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA) is that it offers a promising way out of these twin difficulties. RRA uses sometimes conventional research techniques - borrowed from such fields as

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anthropology, geography, psychology and even journalism — in often unconventional ways: RRA is essentially a process of learning about rural conditions in an intensive, iterative and expeditious manner. It characteristically relies on small multidisciplinary teams that employ a range of methods, tools and techniques specifically selected to enhance understanding of rural conditions, with particular emphasis on tapping the knowledge of local inhabitants and combining that knowledge with modern scientific expertise (Grandstaff et al. '987» PP 5-6). The RRA approach has been under development since the late 1970s, originally emerging in response to the fact that conventional approaches to rural development research are often too time-consuming to be of practical value to the hard-pressed policy maker. There is also a growing body of opinion that at least survey-based techniques fail to elicit vital information — the lack of perception of the seasonality problem being a case in point. The RRA approach has three essential features (apart from speed) that distinguish it from more conventional approaches like the socioeconomic survey. First, it taps the vast reservoir of highly locationspecific knowledge that already exists in rural communities, exploring the rationale behind traditional practices and bringing modern scientific expertise to the process of separating out knowledge from misconception. The resulting information can then be placed in a wider context and analysed to bring out its policy implications. The second distinction, the use of multidisciplinary teams (of primary researchers, rather than enumerators), facilitates the first-hand interpretation of indigenous knowledge systems in a scientific light. The third difference builds on the first two: the iterative nature of RRA allows the researchers' first approximations subsequently to be presented to those who provided the information for scrutiny, inquiry, clarification and subsequent correction and reinterpretation. It is this combination of features that makes for both rapidity and accuracy in RRA. More importantly still, such an approach implies a fundamental shift from the attitudes often found in Third World rural research. To tap and rely on indigenous knowledge systems, to treat these with respect - and, of course, scientific scepticism - implies the recognition of the rural inhabitant as a fellow professional. This is incompatible with a 'top-down' approach to information gathering, and through the implicit process of empowerment, helps tackle the ' powerlessness' problems of poor people.

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Rapid appraisal approaches have been adopted successfully for the purposes of policy-relevant seasonal analysis in a number of settings, as the following example illustrates. Conway (1989) has described the use of such techniques by a group of researchers from the University of the Philippines to investigate, and ultimately help resolve, water disputes within the catchment area of a dam on the outlet of Lake Buhi in southern Luzon. First a rapid survey was carried out and the results of interviews with farmers and other water users combined with data from secondary sources to produce a series of working diagrams. A workshop was then convened which brought officials together with fishermen and farmers from the affected areas and intensive discussions were then initiated: It turned out that one of the key diagrams was a seasonal calendar [reproduced here as Figure 9.1] which helped resolve the central water scheduling issue. Fishermen above the dam were complaining of their fish cages drying out, and lakeside farmers of their rice fields suffering drought, in order to provide water for the downstream farmers. Construction of the seasonal calendar pinpointed the key constraints to the timing of agricultural and fishery operations, namely the occurrence of typhoons and sulphur upwellings, but also demonstrated that retaining the water in the lake above a critical level until the end of May could satisfy the upstream farmers and fishermen without severely affecting those downstream (ibid, p. 84).

4 Agricultural research and extension A good R&E network has been compared to a well-run restaurant: the food is agricultural technology, the customers the farmers, the kitchen staff the scientists, the waiters the extension staff, and the management the agricultural policy makers. Interaction between customer and cook in a restaurant is conducted mainly through the waiter, who: (a) shows the menu to the customer, finding out his or her requirements and pointing out which dishes might best meet these needs; (b) carries the customer's orders and instructions to the cooks; (c) carries the food to the table; (d) conveys any subsequent complaints or praise to the kitchen; (e) presents the bill, receives payment and, if the service was good, a gratuity. Several features of this analogy are illuminating for the present discussion. First, the process is iterative and interactive. Second, it must be responsive to customer needs, otherwise they will take their business elsewhere. Third, the waiter provides vital 'feedback' to the kitchen. If he or she is sufficiently diligent, this will go beyond mere complaints and praise concerning existing dishes:

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discussions with the customers can lead to suggestions as to how the menu itself might be improved. It is always easy to carry analogies too far, and the limitations of this one should be obvious. Its usefulness lies in the way it points to some of the most important difficulties facing the successful operation of public sector R&E networks in developing countries. A basic problem is that, unlike well-run restaurants, they are chronically under-funded. Although funding has increased in the past twenty years, it is still absolutely and relatively small. For example, ISNAR's analysis of the expenditure patterns of 52 developing countries indicates that their average expenditure on agricultural research in 1980-85 was just 0.9 per cent of national agricultural gross development product (having grown from 0.7 per cent in 1970-74). A group of 18 industrial market countries, analysed for purposes of comparison, were found to have

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increased such spending from 1.6 per cent of NAGDP to 2.2 per cent over the same period (ISNAR 1988, p 19). Africa, with its 'dismal' record in agricultural research (Chapter 8), spends least of all: over half the countries of West and Central Africa spend less than US$3 million annually on it (IITA 1988, p. 16). Given the vital role that agriculture plays in such countries, the question should not be whether developing countries can afford to invest in R&E, but whether they can afford not to. Having said this, however, the seasonality and other problems of Third World agriculture will not be solved simply by throwing money at them, for there are often serious organizational problems within R&E systems which prevent their allocating resources in ways that are responsive, and therefore cost-effective. Another basic problem of R&E in developing countries is that it is seldom customer-driven: the farmers may pay for the system through taxes and less direct impositions (like the over-valuation of the domestic currency), but they have no way of withholding these funds if the technology or service are unsatisfactory. The only finances over which farmers have any control are, in terms of the analogy, the gratuities, and only the wealthier ones can afford these. Moreover, the system is subject to. almost the entire range of biases mentioned earlier, all of which reinforce the lack offinancialinducement for management, cooks and waiters to design the menu with reference to the customer's wishes. 'Gender' and 'resource' bias make it likely that female customers and those that can afford only the cheaper dishes will tend to be ignored.5 PARTICIPATORY APPROACHES

The idea that farmers, at least, should participate as active partners in the research process has received growing, if still limited, recognition in recent years. Even then, as always, implementation lags a long way behind recognition. Various participatory approaches have been suggested. Farming systems research itself is, or can be, such an approach. Others, which place even stronger emphasis on the degree of farmer participation, include 'Farmer-back-to-farmer' (Rhoades and Booth 1982), 'On-farm client-oriented research' (ISNAR 1984), 'Farmer-first-and-last' (Chambers and Ghildyal 1985), and 'Regular research field hearings' (Knipscheer and Suradisastra 1986). These have been well summarized and critically reviewed in Farrington and Martin (1988), and there is no need to repeat the arguments, or describe the differences in detail here. The main features these approaches have in common are:

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Problem orientation, a respect for people's capability to produce and analyse knowledge, the researchers' commitment to and involvement with the community, the rejection of 'value neutrality', and the recognition that research is an educational process for researcher and community (ibid, p. 7). The implications of such a stance for confronting the seasonality problem should be clear. First, where seasonality of production and resource use do pose serious difficulties for the farmer, problemorientation will ensure identification of its nature and magnitude. Second, again where seasonality is a real problem, technologies and strategies for coping with it are almost certain to exist, and participatory research will uncover these. This in turn will help identify ways in which indigenous technology can be strengthened and built upon. Finally, the 'respect', 'commitment', 'involvement' and 'educational' aspects of the above definition are totally incompatible with maintenance of the bias of education and status mentioned earlier. One thing that farmer participation will not in itself ensure, however, is that the R&E system addresses the problems of the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the countryside. Nevertheless, technological development in agriculture can assist these groups, at least to some extent, for even in the case of the landless, the household plot or kitchen garden provides, or could provide, some income or food for the hungry season. In the case of the women of a farm household, although they may not always be defined as ' farmers', they play a major part in agricultural production, and since their roles and problems are generally different from those of men, a targeted effort is needed to discover precisely what these roles and problems are, and, collaboratively, to design appropriate technologies. Such groups require a particularly strong and sustained effort to identify and address their problems, for many of the biases described earlier tend to worsen, or at best fail to help alleviate, the seasonal stress they face. Specifically in the area of agricultural research and extension, bias in favour of purchased inputs like fertilizer, and varieties that are responsive to them, has meant the neglect of traditional crops and varietal mixes grown by those who cannot afford such inputs, but which may contain important counter-seasonal elements like pronounced varietal diversity. In addition, research centre bias towards field crops and only a few domestic animals (Chapter 8), militates against research on trees, vegetables and small stock, all of which could make vital contributions to homestead production activities, such as kitchen gardening, poultry-rearing and off-season handicrafts. The counter-seasonal potential of tree crops suffers additional neglect because the relatively long gestation period of woody perennials makes

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them unattractive to research agendas constrained by the short time horizons of donor agencies and those dependent on their funding.

REWARD STRUCTURES

Typically in national R&E systems the linkages between programme success and financial and professional rewards are weak. In the case of research there is often a positive inducement not to indulge in applied research aimed at serving the needs of farmers, since activities like publication of basic research findings in scientific journals or presentation of papers along similar lines at prestigious international conferences are often the major determinant of professional advancement. Such an incentive structure conflicts with the need for interdisciplinary research that lies at the heart of the participatory approach. The older, and hence more prestigious, scientific journals almost all have a fairly narrow disciplinary focus. Conferences are more amenable to an inter-disciplinary format, but too often 'interdisciplinary' conferences become merely multi-disciplinary, with little attempt at genuine interaction across disciplinary frontiers. This particular bias is strengthened by the organizational structure of most agricultural research centres, which are typically configured into discipline-based departments, each of which has a great deal of freedom in setting its own research agenda without reference to what is happening in other departments. A precondition of the participatory approach, therefore, is a restructuring of both reward systems and institutional set-ups. The latter is probably the easier of the two and should therefore be tackled first. To do this it is not necessary - indeed it would probably be counter-productive - to dismantle traditional discipline-based departments. What is imperative is that research agendas be established at higher levels which permit research to be inter-disciplinary and hence more problem-oriented. The International Potato Center (CIP) already uses such an approach. Although it has the usual discipline-based research departments, CIP's agenda is organized around a series of problem-oriented 'research thrusts', such as 'integrated pest management' and 'potato and sweet potato in food systems'. Departmental scientists are assigned to particular 'thrusts' in which each will normally work with members of other departments. Setting such a structure in place, provided it is supported by a system that facilitates, recognizes and rewards inter-disciplinarity, field experience and

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problem orientation, will be a vital step towards the adoption of participatory approaches. At the level of the individual scientist or extensionist, a basic problem is one of inappropriate technical educational systems. With few exceptions these rely on, and therefore perpetuate, a pedantic teacher-student relationship and ' chalk-and-talk' teaching techniques, both of which run strongly counter to the idea that extension should be a two-way flow of information. If the medium is bad, the message is worse, for such education tends to emphasize strongly the value of all things modern, ridicules - or even fails to recognize the existence of - indigenous knowledge, and equates illiteracy with ignorance. Before significant progress can be made towards recognizing disadvantaged people engaged in agriculture as legitimate partners in R&E, these attitudes will have to be reversed. Yet any attempt to do so soon confronts one of the familiar ' vicious circles' of development: lack of truly participatory approaches impedes the empowerment of the disadvantaged, and the fact that the disadvantaged are powerless to make their views felt impedes the development of participatory approaches. What is needed, therefore, is something that will break the circle. One approach that seems to offer the potential to do so is the Chinese system which, at least in the 1970s, required even senior scientists to spend at least a year in a village, living with and learning from, the farmers 'to gain a firsthand familiarity with their circumstances and their common sense wisdom' (Harwood 1979, p 34). SEASONALITY AND S USTAIN ABILITY

Important as it is to make agricultural R&E responsive to the potential users' expressed needs, this approach should not take over the entire policy agenda, for there are other priorities which the responsible policy maker must also take into account. One of these is the need to adopt a long-term perspective on resource management. The poorer a family is, the greater will be its concern with immediate, rather than future, needs, and in this situation the State has a responsibility to ensure that the needs of future, as well as present, generations are served. Increasing worldwide concern about the over-exploitation and consequent degradation of natural resources has generated a great deal of interest in sustainable agriculture. While this is no place for reviewing the arguments in detail, the relationship between seasonality and sustainability is an important one that is worth exploring, since, it will be argued, an attack on one will help counter the other.

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Some traditional counter-seasonal strategies resulted in agricultural technologies that were quite highly sustainable. Reliance on varietal diversity as a means of extending harvesting seasons and spreading out workloads is an important example. This helped sustain the genetic diversity of many cultivars, whose erosion in modern times through excessive reliance on a few HYVs is now generating such well-founded concern. Again, the traditional subsistence mixed farming system, with its concern to spread production and workloads as much as possible across the year, produced a wide range of crops which were planted and harvested in different seasons, with different crops often grown in close proximity in alternate rows. Such a configuration forms a natural barrier to the spread of crop pests and diseases, but the steady advance of monoculture, encouraged by such factors as commercialization, agro-chemical means of pest control, varietal' development' and harvest mechanization (which usually means that crops must be grown in large blocks) nullifies this. It creates an environment ideally suited, not only to the spread of pests and disease, but to the evolution of strains that are becoming increasingly resistant to chemical methods of eradication, and hence increasingly difficult to control. Such forms of agriculture, literally, cannot be sustained. Obviously it would not be possible, or even desirable, to try to turn the clock back: the point is that technologies — and this includes modern technologies - that make for sustainable agriculture also tend to make for less seasonally-bound agriculture, and that policies that serve the one end will therefore also help serve the other. In no area is this more true than with soils. The steady shift of emphasis from organic to inorganic fertilizers and the corresponding decline in the humus content of cultivated soils has meant the moisture-retaining capacity of the land has been reduced in many areas, and where moisture availability is the main limit on the growing season (as in most of the tropics and sub-tropics) this clearly increases seasonality problems in agriculture. Soil moisture constraints can often be exacerbated by tillage, and in the tropics the most up-to-date methods tend, paradoxically, to be the worst. A modern mouldboard- or disc plough, by inverting the soil, exposes it to a much greater degree of desiccation than the type of traditional animal-drawn cultivator which only stirs up the surface. The latter, in turn, is worse from the point of view of dry season moisture retention than more primitive methods like the digging stick, which merely made a hole in the vegetative ground cover into which seed could be dropped. To say this is not to argue that traditional techniques and

AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND EXTENSION 239 technologies are inherently superior to modern ones, for they are usually low in productivity and can be terribly destructive of natural resources - especially when put under pressure by population expansion, marginalization and the self-reinforcing and self-perpetuating effects of soil degradation itself. Given that these pressures exist, the pace of development of traditional coping mechanisms is far too slow to be capable of dealing with them, and modern scientific method has a correspondingly indispensable role to play. The problem in the past, as far as developing countries were concerned, has been that either scientific methods have been applied to what is now recognized as the wrong set of problems, or that solutions developed for one set of circumstances were mistakenly applied in others to which they were quite inappropriate, or that solutions were found for particular aspects of problems to the detriment of other, under-researched and therefore unrecognized, aspects. Science has not been slow to attack the sustainability problem once it was recognized as such. For example, methods involving minimumand zero tillage have produced encouraging results in the conservation of soil moisture and the protection of the soil against erosion. Other scientific approaches, such as organic farming, ecological agriculture and permaculture, aim not only to conserve soil and soil moisture, but by returning organic materials to the land, steadily to build up moisture retention capacity and soil fertility to a point at which high and sustainable yields can be achieved without high-energy, importintensive, chemical-intensive — and often essentially soil-mining — farming techniques.6 Such methods, however, are location-specific, and therefore represent a tremendous and exciting challenge to national and international agricultural research. Since sustainability is now quite widely recognized as a major aim of agricultural policy, resources for the necessary research are likely to become available to counter related problems. And since efforts to do so can also counter seasonality of production and resource use, the relevant policies should be mutually reinforcing. A major difficulty however, is that non-sustainable techniques (like the elimination of fallows and the cultivation of non-terraced hillsides) have been adopted because pressing food requirements forced farmers to concentrate on short-term solutions, often in the full knowledge that they did so at the expense of worsening the problems they would face in the longer term. Tackling this type of issue has policy implications that go far beyond the realm of agricultural research and extension, but the R&E network has an important role to play, at least in devising appropriate

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techniques and technologies. Possible policy options for promoting their adoption will be explored later. • Land reform Although agricultural research and extension can be made relevant to the problem of seasonal stress amongst even the most disadvantaged strata of rural communities, the lower the level of access an agriculturally-dependent family has to land and land-based resources, the more restricted will the scope for such intervention become. Land reform measures in Third World countries have not been undertaken with the seasonality problem specifically in mind, yet they do have considerable influence upon it. Most importantly, where such measures have resulted in a genuine and equitable redistribution of land, where they result in a reduction in poverty for the poorer farm families, the severity of the seasonality problem will be correspondingly relaxed. However, most developing countries have discovered that in this field, as in so many others, legislation is much easier than implementation, and poorly enforced land reform measures are often at best ineffective. On the other hand, where land reform measures are actually implemented, if they have been poorly thought-out (reflecting urban bias, perhaps), they can actually be counter-productive.7 The way in which land reform affects the seasonality problem depends primarily upon the extent to which it results in actual redistribution of control over land resources. Paradoxically, there will often be least disturbance to existing patterns where a 'Land to the Tiller' approach is adopted. This familiar slogan may sound like a neat summation of an equitable policy - and this is sometimes the case - but it is not necessarily so. Agricultural tenancy is probably most commonplace in densely-populated areas where land is correspondingly at a premium. Usually in such areas there is a considerable class of agricultural labourers with no access to land, owned or rented, so that the family of a tenant farmer is often far from being the poorest in the community. Where 'Land to the Tiller' means what it says, conferring ownership on tenants, or at least confirming existing tenant farmers in their occupancy rights, this improves the lot of such farmers, but does nothing for the agricultural labourer. In the specific case of seasonal stress, where the abolition of farm tenancy is not accompanied by measures to give labourers access to land, it may instead actually worsen their position, both relatively and absolutely, for the widening of income disparities between ex-tenant farmer and farm labourer could easily also widen the scope for passing on seasonal stress from the

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former to the latter. This could be done through, for example, labourdisplacing farm mechanization. After tenant farmers are confirmed in their occupancy, it may well become economically more attractive for them to mechanize, since there would then be assured access to land. Moreover, assured land occupancy (especially through ownership transfer, but even through the granting of guaranteed usufructuary rights) is likely to make it easier for a farmer to secure a bank loan with which to buy machinery. At the other end of the scale, where land reform actually achieves a significant measure of redistribution, seasonality problems of a different sort can emerge. In particular, when -labourers become farmers for the first time, or marginal farmers obtain access to more land, it will take time for them to establish the full potential of their new holdings with respect to the staggering of production, workloads, input requirements, etc., over the year. The extent to which this can be achieved will depend on the way in which holdings were distributed in the course of implementing the reforms. It would, of course, be quite unrealistic to expect those charged with this responsibility to ensure that each farmer was provided with a finely-tuned set of parcels of land, whose composition exactly balanced the competing requirements of, on the one hand minimizing the degree of scatter of plots (and hence problems of transport, crop protection, etc.) with,"on the other hand, the farmers' need for access to as wide as possible a range of different agroecological environments in order to minimize seasonal variation in overall production- and resource needs. However, what actually happens is often the opposite extreme, that of land consolidation, with farmers each being given a single block of land in one location. The reasons for such consolidation are generally a mixture of administrative ease and a mistaken belief (itself a reflection of urban bias and urban perceptions) that only the first of the above two criteria is important - or, indeed, a total lack of awareness that any other desiderata exist. It would be extremely foolish to attempt to play down the need for simplifying administrative procedures here, for, in terms of staff time and staff commitment, reform programmes which genuinely redistribute land are extremely expensive to administer. What must be avoided, however, is the type of situation in which the new ownership or access patterns are made rigid and inflexible by the prohibition of sales, leasing and similar arrangements. This type of provision is sometimes incorporated into land reforms in the interests of preventing future re-emergence of ownership concentration. While purchases, sales and exchanges of land or usufructuary rights have often facilitated ownership concentration, they are also important mechanisms in

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helping farmers ease the seasonality problem by permitting them to acquire a ' portfolio' of plots with different physical characteristics, and hence the potential for staggering production schedules. A land reform programme that is sensitive to the seasonality problem must permit this type of adjustment to continue to be made, as well as attempting to safeguard against future re-emergence of ownership concentration. • Mechanization, migration and off-season employment Land reform by itself is not going to solve the seasonality problems of the disadvantaged in rural areas of the Third World. Within families it does not even begin to address the issue of inequitable sharing of seasonal stress — even if, by increasing family income, it may reduce such stress in absolute terms. At the inter-family level, even if a reasonably equitable system of land holdings were to be established, it would almost inevitably degenerate over time, if not through land transfers, then through the combined effects of subdivision of holdings among children and differential reproduction rates between families. In densely populated areas there is a severe limit to the degree of subdivision that can be sustained before holdings become sub-marginal, so that the re-emergence of de facto landlessness is almost inevitable. Although the long-term solution to this must be steadily increasing employment in non-seasonal, largely urban, industries, in the shorter term a number of measures can be taken to create, or facilitate the creation of, slack-season rural employment, so as to minimize the degree of seasonal stress. The seasonal aspects of the problem of labour displacement through farm mechanization were discussed at length in the previous chapter. The conclusion must be that the introduction of engine-powered machinery from the temperate zones should always be regarded with suspicion in Third World countries, the more densely-populated the area, the deeper the suspicion. At one end of the spectrum it may be that engine-powered machinery creates production-, and hence employment, opportunities where none previously existed. This is most likely to be the case with irrigation, although even here labour-intensive options for at least some operations should be explored before a capitalintensive alternative is adopted. The same is true of farm tractors, even where they may appear as a labour-augmenting technology. In both cases mechanization of particular operations cannot be considered in isolation, for the danger of subsequent (' sequential') mechanization of other operations, and consequent labour displacement, is ever-present. At the other end of the scale from irrigation, it is difficult to conceive

OFF-SEASON EMPLOYMENT 243 of circumstances in which the introduction of combine harvesters, with their huge labour-displacement effect, could be justified in any but the most sparsely-populated Third World countries, if then. The most commonly-used justification for mechanization, the ' labour bottleneck' and ' draught power constraint' arguments, should, for reasons discussed earlier, also be treated with scepticism, as they often mask either vested interests or inadequate thinking. Even if it were proved beyond reasonable doubt that mechanization would lower the cost of production, thus encouraging farmers to produce more and hence reducing the prices of agricultural produce, such gains would have to be set against the increased suffering of large numbers of the poorest rural families, which would result from loss of peak-season earnings. There are often other, non-labour-displacing ways to encourage farmers to produce more, for example through guaranteed 'floor' prices for farm produce, subsidization of labour-augmenting inputs, and publicly-funded agricultural research. It is particularly difficult to see any justification for subsidizing labour-displacing mechanization when such alternatives may exist. All such possibilities should be investigated before any move is made to encourage mechanization. One particularly important alternative is seasonal labour migration. The problems and miseries of seasonal migrants were discussed in Chapter 6, yet not even the most radical writer on the subject has suggested that measures be taken to stop these flows - on the simple grounds that seasonal migration is the lesser of two evils. Here, however, a more positive approach is suggested whereby seasonal migration be deliberately fostered in order to both boost agricultural production and ensure that at least part of the rewards are reaped by labourers, rather than by the manufacturers, importers and owners of agricultural machinery. The customary patterns and timing of agricultural production that gave rise to traditional migratory flows are changing with technological change in agriculture, eroding the rationale behind some traditional flow patterns, while simultaneously creating new opportunities for profitable migration at other times in other places. Paralleling this, the development of transportation networks of Third World countries is further affecting the potential for such migration by reducing transaction costs. Identification of new opportunities for seasonal migration is the first step towards ensuring that the supply of labour, as distinct from that of labour substitutes, is matched as closely as possible to the changing pattern of demand. One approach to initiating this process rapidly and inexpensively is suggested in the Appendix.

244

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING

'Seasonal mapping' complements such an approach. This was mentioned earlier in the context of identifying 'zones of adverse agricultural-health linkages'; it could also be used at the macro level to combine data on rural population with those on cropping calendars, cropping patterns and cropped areas in different agro-ecological zones of the country in order to identify potential interzonal seasonal complementarities in labour supply and demand. The problem remains, however, that according to the evidence, the benefits of seasonal migration do not reach down to the most disadvantaged groups in the supplying areas, and can even serve as a mechanism for passing down seasonal stress in the areas of inmigration. Where patron—client relations continue to exist, it is doubtful if much can be done to prevent 'patrons' in the receiving areas from using seasonal in-migration to loosen their ties with local 'clients'. A more fruitful approach would be to try to provide the latter with alternative coping mechanisms. One of these might be slack season out-migration to other areas. The major problem here for the most disadvantaged groups is a combination of lack of information, lack of connections and lack of funds to cover transaction costs. However, interventions can be targeted with these difficulties in view. This is an area in which the voluntary agencies could play a crucial role, particularly if they pool their efforts in some kind of networking arrangement in order to obtain maximum geographical coverage. Such an initiative would maximize the prospects for identifying opportunities on both supply and demand sides. Having done so, such agencies could play a further vital role in acting as guarantors for those without other connections, as well as providing loans for those who could not otherwise cover the transaction costs of migration. Facilitating seasonal migration is not, of course, the only measure that could be taken to increase off-season employment. Others include the promotion of handicrafts, the post-harvest processing of agricultural- and other rural produce, and improvement to rural infrastructure through labour-intensive, off-season public works. These last can have a doubly counter-seasonal effect if they are used to construct facilities like flood control and drainage of malarial swamps. Careful timing of such interventions is important, and, as in so many other cases, requirements with regard to such timing may be different both within and between families.8 None of these ideas is particularly new, but the gender and age aspects are sometimes overlooked. HussAshmore (1982) provides an example from Lesotho which illustrates this. In that country it was at one time proposed that Food-For-Work

MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTION

245

(FFW) programmes be suspended during the period June to August, in the belief that food was then plentiful and people would be too busy with the harvest to require such schemes. In fact in the area in question women were finished with their harvest-related work by mid-July, after which they had little to do until September. This applied particularly to older women who were the main beneficiaries of the FFW programme. Finally, since there are certain age- and gender-specific periods of over-work, as well as similar periods of enforced idleness, employment policy should address these issues. Chambers and Maxwell (1981) discuss the possibility of introducing ' equity oriented technologies', that is, ones specifically aimed at easing problems of over-work for tasks traditionally done by disadvantaged groups, particularly women and children. They would include improved hoes, better water supplies, food processing technologies (for peeling, grinding, pounding), and fast-growing trees species. However, as these two authors acknowledge, and as was pointed out in Chapter 3, there is also the inherent danger of thereby transferring income-earning opportunities from women to men, so that care must be taken when designing such technologies to take this factor into account. + Market failure and market distortion The evidence presented in Chapter 7 demonstrated the general proposition that the poorer a country is, the less developed its transportation and communications infrastructure, the less likely is it that the market mechanism will be able to function as an efficient means of moving resources and produce between areas of the country that are complementary with respect to seasonality of agricultural production and resource use. It was also argued that insensitive and ill-directed state interventions, in such forms as price controls, subsidies, prohibitions and the concentration of buying and selling power in the hands of public sector monopolies, has generally achieved the opposite of the intended effect, benefiting the relatively well-off at the expense of the disadvantaged. What legitimate role can policy and planning play in correcting such a situation? First, one basic proposition must be accepted. Fair competition benefits the poor and the powerless. It gives them what they normally lack, namely genuine choice. Monopoly — whether state or private - is their enemy. Policy at all levels would contribute most to overcoming the problems of market failure by fostering competition.

246

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING

Probably the most effective way of doing this is by a mixture of promoting unrestricted market entry, or, where cartels and other anticompetitive forces are too powerful, providing public sector or other not-for-profit alternatives to (as distinct from mandatory substitutes for) the profit-oriented private sector. At the level of central government and the donor agencies, one of the more useful interventions would be to try to correct the basic communications problem by a thorough review of transportation policy. In no area is Third World urban bias more evident than in the typical pattern of road and rail links radiating outwards from the ports and cities into the countryside, serving to carry agricultural produce in one direction and urban goods and services in the other. Such a pattern makes it extremely unlikely that rural areas which are complementary with respect to the timing of production and resource use will be able to exchange goods and services seasonally. To say this is not, of course, to argue that the entire transportation policy of a country should be turned over to solving the seasonality problems of rural areas, but rather that this consideration should be factored into the decisionmaking process. This is yet another area in which seasonal mapping could play a crucial exploratory role, by identifying areas which are complementary in the above respects, and providing a basis for estimates of possible flows of both produce and services (including, of course, those provided by seasonal migrants). Where wet-season access cannot be guaranteed in this way, storage capacity can instead be built up and the stores stocked ahead of the normal time of seasonal shortages of food and agricultural inputs. Of course more than mere physical storage capacity is required: this must be linked to the related problems of extreme inter-seasonal price fluctuations and the lack of credit at affordable rates. One very promising initiative in this field that was, like so many others, pioneered by voluntary agencies, is the so-called 'cereal bank'. This consists of a village-level or other localized storage facility in which small farmers can deposit their produce (and labourers their wage goods) after the harvest, when cash needs are normally high and crop prices low. Depositors are then given loans against the security of the stored crop, the value of the loan being equal to the immediate postharvest value of the crop. These loans are made redeemable later in the year, when the owners can benefit from the higher crop prices then prevailing. Although this approach is not without its problems, it has a number of very attractive counter-seasonal features. The depositors benefit by getting (a) as much cash as they would get from selling the

MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTION

247

produce, (b) safe storage, (c) post-harvest credit and (d) a new source of off-season income (in the shape of the redeemed produce itself or the proceeds from selling this). The lending agency has physical security for its loans - in the shape of goods whose value appreciates from the time of purchase — thus avoiding one of the major obstacles in the way of lending to poor people. Poor consumers benefit from the fact that the outward drain of food in the immediate post-harvest season is reduced or halted, instead being stored and therefore able to become available for sale in the hungry season. One of the most attractive features of such schemes is that the cost will be lowest and the benefit greatest where the seasonal price spread is most extreme and postharvest cash needs most pressing, i.e. where market failure is most pronounced. The greatest problem with this approach is the familiar one of high administrative cost in relation to turnover and the danger that it might, like most institutional lending schemes, be 'hijacked' by locally influential people in league with low-paid local officials. The best way round this problem is to ensure that the ' cereal banks' are communitybased. This is not to say that officially sponsored, 'top-down' user groups or other ' co-operatives' should be formed: the rural areas of the Third World are littered with failed examples of these. What is required is a genuine grassroots movement where the poorer members of the community form the organization without external control or constraint, formulate their own rules, elect their own officials, take collective responsibility for actions and provide collective security for loans and other facilities obtained from outside agencies.9 This in turn would eliminate the problem of high administrative costs, which is such a major obstacle for commercial banks when attempting to lend to poor people. Perhaps more importantly, such group formation is an important 'empowerment' mechanism, enabling the disadvantaged to draw strength from their numbers and collectively withstand the pressures of powerful local vested interests against whom they could not stand individually. Here again is an area in which voluntary agencies could play a vital role, in such fields as education and awareness-building, the provision of ' seed capital' and by acting as a bridge between community organizations in different localities and between such local organizations and national level agencies that could assist them. These include governmental organizations, such as the agricultural research and extension network, the agricultural inputs supply corporations and the agricultural development banks that so many developing country governments seem to have.

248

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING

The 'cereal bank' concept relates only to food and other produce. The other main need for storage isforinputs. Seasonality is obviously an important consideration here because of the pronounced seasonal peaks that characterize demand. Ultimately, community groups could grow into fully-fledged agricultural co-operatives which could handle inputs as well as produce, but even then, as in the developed world, the private sector trader or trading firm could still have a considerable role to play. This would certainly be so in the early stages. Input supply is an area in which timeliness is of the utmost importance, yet where the necessary private sector institutions have not evolved, or not been allowed to evolve, this is usually the responsibility of a state-owned agricultural inputs corporation. A major problem with these is that they are typically bureaucratic and inflexible — attributes that are incompatible with the need for timeliness if inputs are to be of use to the farmer. A first priority is obviously to abolish the guaranteed monopoly position of such corporations, where one exists, so that they can provide just one of a range of alternatives for the farmer. However, if such corporations are genuinely to encourage the growth of competition they must be freed from bureaucratic controls and organized along lines similar to those suggested earlier for the research-extension system, i.e. lines that reward those employees who do most to serve the farmer. It is unlikely, however, that such organizations could ever achieve sufficient flexibility to be able to compete in a genuinely free market for agricultural inputs. They are useful either where there is no alternative supplier, or where there is market failure, so that even inefficient state-run outlets can provide a genuine alternative to private sector ones that are reaping monopoly profits. Breaking this mould should by itself encourage the growth of competition - including, ultimately, competition from farmers' cooperatives. To the extent that market failure is corrected, the stateowned corporation will find it increasingly difficult to compete, and, having achieved its objective, it should then be withdrawn from the area in question. One question that impinges closely on the above discussion is that of subsidies. Many developing countries subsidize inputs (some of which have themselves been obtained on concessionary terms), principally on the grounds that this is a relatively cheap way to subsidize food prices. This is obviously no place for a discussion of this difficult question, but in relation to the present argument one point should be made clear: if public sector corporations are to be used to

MARKET FAILURE AND MARKET DISTORTION

249

stimulate the growth of competition, it would be difficult to make a case for subsidizing their operations alone, since the private sector would then find it difficult to compete. If subsidies are to be applied they must be applied across the board. In considering the question of input supply in relation to seasonality, special attention should be given to the case of seed. Timeliness is obviously of the most crucial importance here, but there is additional cause for concern in this case. It was earlier argued that where seasonality of production poses serious problems, agricultural research could often usefully be aimed at developing varieties that enable the growing season to be extended or the growing period to be shortened or both. However, there is little point in developing such varieties if the farmers cannot get good clean seed on time. There is also a need to safeguard new varieties against adulteration, particularly where demand for them is high and a premium is therefore being paid. In some cases fairly simple mechanisms may be developed to tackle this difficulty. A particularly useful one is to encourage certain farmers in each locality to specialize in seed production. This will not only facilitate timeliness in delivery: it will also severely limit the scope for adulteration, partly because local farmers can actually see which crop is growing in the seed-producer's fields, and partly because such producers would find it difficult to avoid suffering the consequences if they cheated. However, in other cases seed production may be subject to certain technical requirements which would make it difficult for ordinary farmers to do the job. Alternatively, there may be advantages in concentrating seed multiplication in particular agro-ecological zones, perhaps because of relatively risk-free production conditions, or a useful difference in harvest season from the main crop production zones. It is in these latter cases that the timeliness and adulteration problems are most likely to arise. In a country like India, with its relatively well-developed agricultural supply system, the role of producing and distributing seed for sale has largely been taken on by private companies, with public sector involvement being limited essentially to the testing and certification of commercially-grown seed. However, where such a system has not yet developed, alternative arrangements must be made. Given the overwhelming importance of seed among purchased inputs, a strong argument could be made for the state-owned agricultural inputs company assigning top priority to this aspect of supply and allocating resources accordingly.

250

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING

• Integrating counter-seasonal planning All of the measures and approaches suggested in this chapter, even those that could stand alone, would be most effective if incorporated within a cohesive counter-seasonal strategy. Such a strategy should not attempt to identify a set of policies to be adopted across the board, but rather the most suitable mix of policies to adapt with respect to the country's different socio-economic groups and regions (classified by both remoteness/accessibility and agro-ecological zone). It should also identify, implement and co-ordinate the programme in particular areas. Integration of counter-seasonal measures at the national level must aim to ensure that there is consistency at all four of the levels described below. INTERNAL

CONSISTENCY

The need to ensure that new counter-seasonal initiatives are internally consistent (i.e. consistent with each other) arises because of differences in the impact of seasonality on different agro-ecological regions of the country and within such regions on different socio-economic groups. At the former level, problems might arise, for example, because employment generation efforts in one area created new slack season employment opportunities, hence eliminating a reservoir of unemployed labour which may have been identified elsewhere in the planning process as a potential source of seasonal migrants. Another example would be where the development of irrigation potential in the upper reaches of a river basin decreased dry-season flows in the lower reaches and therefore undermined existing downstream irrigation facilities both quantitatively and, perhaps, qualitatively (through induced salt water intrusion). Figure 9.1 above showed how such inconsistencies might arise in practice, and how the ensuing conflicts of interests might usefully be tackled through RRA techniques at the macro level. At the level of the socio-economic group in the same agro-ecological zone, it has been a pivotal argument of this book - and of other writings on seasonality — that some traditional measures reduce seasonal problems for some such groups by passing on the associated stress to others, always in the process following and reinforcing existing hierarchical, male- and adult-dominated social structures. Given the ' non-perception' difficulties that keep the problems of the disadvantaged so consistently out of focus, the danger is that counter-

I N T E G R A T I N G COUNTER-SEASONAL P L A N N I N G

251

seasonal measures for specific areas will tend to focus on the needs of dominant groups (as in the case of farm mechanization). In order to counteract this bias, new counter-seasonal technologies and organizational approaches will often have to be deliberately skewed in the opposite direction. CONSISTENCY WITH TRADITIONAL COPING MECHANISMS

Many writers on the policy implications of the seasonality issue have argued that new counter-seasonal approaches should seek to identify and build on existing coping mechanisms, rather than try to replace them. This is in keeping with a more general principle in rural development, since it has been found that:' the relevance and prospects of success of innovations brought in from outside will be enhanced if they build upon indigenous knowledge. Where this is not done, the risk of failure is high' (Farrington and Martin 1988, p. 23). It would be difficult to disagree with the above views, except insofar as they relate to a point that has just been made: since some existing coping mechanisms have often been used to pass down seasonal stress from the relatively advantaged to those more disadvantaged, care should be taken to ensure that these are not the types of mechanisms that are reinforced. CONSISTENCY WITHIN AGRICULTURAL

PLANNING

Within the agricultural sector the seasonality problem should be tackled as part of the more general approach to agricultural development issues. Integration and co-ordination are extremely important here, for several traditional agricultural ' development' policies have sometimes had the effect of worsening seasonal stress for at least some sections of rural communities. Several examples have been mentioned already, such as the erosion of varietal diversity that accompanied the 'green revolution', the settling of agriculturalists on the lands of nomadic pastoralists and hunter-gatherers, and the intensification of agriculture (or the introduction of enclosed grazing) leading to the loss of common lands from which poor people, particularly women and children, have traditionally collected wild foods, fuel, fodder, materials for handicrafts, water and other necessities, all of which can play a crucial role in seeing them through the worst time of year. In some such cases difficult choices may have to be made, because a measure that benefits one group may hurt another. Sometimes the

252

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING

choice is between equity and productivity, and again an appropriate point on the trade-off curve has to be decided upon. In one important case, however, the side on which policy must come down is clear-cut, namely where short-term production gains are being made at the expense of long-term destruction of land resources. There is no doubt that this must be stopped. However, it must not be stopped 'at all costs', as these costs would often have to be borne by the poorest members of the rural community, especially poor farmers forced by pressing consumption needs to adopt destructive methods of cultivation. Earlier in the chapter it was noted that many of the measures that make agriculture sustainable also help create the basis for counterseasonal strategies, so that adopting such measures would help attack both sets of problems. However in order to do so, it would be necessary to divert at least some resources temporarily from consumption to investment: land put under a green manure crop cannot grow much food in the same season; a crop ploughed in as green manure cannot be fed to livestock; dung used as a fertilizer and straw used as a mulch cannot also be burnt as fuel. Poor farmers facing urgent problems of insufficient food and fuel today cannot afford even to take a fraction of their land out of production temporarily so as to be able to enrich it, build up its fertility and increase its moisture retention capacity in order ultimately to promote a more secure, less seasonally variable, tomorrow. This is an extremely difficult problem to confront, yet something must be done about it. One possible solution, whose ramifications are far too complex to be pursued much further here, would be to find some mechanism to pay poor farmers to take successive parts of their land out of production temporarily so as to be able to improve it in such a way as to both extend the growing season and make production from it sustainable (which could be done by such measures as terracing, increasing the humus content and tree-planting). To make such payments would, after all, be merely to recognize that in making the necessary investment the farmer was rehabilitating and conserving an irreplaceable national resource, one whose value will extend far beyond his or her own lifetime. It seems reasonable to expect, not just the nation, but the entire human race, to help pay for such a sacrifice, since all of us and J our children would be the ultimate beneficiaries. If this last point runs counter to conventional wisdom, it should be remembered that the situation of steady resource depletion in much of the Third World today 'is not unlike the situation that existed, for

I N T E G R A T I N G COUNTER-SEASONAL P L A N N I N G

253

example, in North America in the 1930s and, as in that case, the State may well need to offer incentives to balance the farmer's present needs with the long-term interest of society as a whole' (ICARDA 1988, p. 20; emphasis added). Here, then, is an area in which donor agencies could play a crucial role, by responding generously in funding this process of transition. Such funding should take the form of grants — not just to the recipient nation, but to the farm also — rather than loans, for the poorest farmers cannot afford the risk of loans, nor do they often have the necessary collateral to offer as security. INTEGRATION WITH OTHER SECTORS

Since many seasonality problems cut across sectoral limits, incorporating the seasonal dimension into policy formulation on rural development should obviously do the same. Some of these crosssectoral areas have already been identified, such as the linkages between agriculture and transportation policy and seasonal employment generation through public works and rural industrialization. While identification of the whole range of counter-seasonal policy options would be beyond the already wide scope of the present book, some of the relevant areas should at least be identified - if only because ignorance of the connections can cause well-intentioned policy measures to either fail or create other problems. There are many examples in the relationship between seasonality in agriculture and seasonality in health problems. A simple instance is the introduction of wetland rice cultivation under irrigation. This may reduce seasonality problems in food production and consumption, but it will also provide the ideal breeding ground for mosquitoes and other biting insects which cause seasonal flare-ups in debilitating diseases. Such a relationship will be fairly obvious, but others are less so, as the following example will illustrate. Some years ago, the Indian government banned the production of grass pea (Lathyrus sativus) on health grounds. This legume is high in neurotoxins and if eaten in sufficient quantity will cause lathyrism, a progressive paralysis of the lower limbs. However, the crop has important counter-seasonal advantages in northern India and neighbouring countries, where it is widely grown. Of all pulse crops it is the most tolerant of both drought and water-logging and it is exceptionally tolerant of cold, so that in northern areas it can be sown when it is too late in the year to start any other legume. It is also possible to undersow grass pea into a standing crop of rice, so that it requires little or no

254

IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY AND PLANNING

tillage or weeding to produce a reasonable yield. As a consequence of these factors, grass pea is the cheapest of all legumes to produce. People in the production areas know that this crop can cause lathyrism, but such are its counter-seasonal advantages that farmers continue to grow it, poor farmers for home consumption and better-off farmers for sale to consumers too poor to be able to afford anything better. The Indian government finally recognized that banning this crop was not going to solve the problem. It therefore very sensibly, if belatedly, lifted the ban, instead sponsoring research on trying to produce varieties that are either non-toxic, or at least very low in toxins.10 The whole area of health care and nutrition, especially the problem of seasonal peaks in the incidence of disease, undernutrition and malnutrition, is one that has received a great deal of attention in the seasonality debate, and various policy measures have been suggested by a number of writers.11 These include supplemental feeding of vulnerable groups (in the dry season to build up bodily stores if logistical problems would be too great in the rains); dry-season immunization campaigns; the careful scheduling of insecticide spraying to coincide with the most effective eradication points in the life cycles of pests and parasites; measures to regulate the timing of births to the period that gives maximum likelihood of survival; stocking and staffing of clinics to ensure adequate supplies and services in the season of peak incidence of disease; and day care facilities for infants in villages with working mothers. Some of these measures seem somewhat impracticable, but many could usefully be implemented as part of an overall and integrated programme to reduce seasonal stress. In no other areas is the need for seasonal planning so pressing as in agriculture, nutrition, employment and health, but there are several other areas on which the issue impinges at least to some extent. For example, certain administrative measures, primarily the responsibility of the financial establishment, could be taken to alleviate the problem of seasonal stress. Chambers and Maxwell (1981) note that there is a need for the timing of the fiscal year to be such as to prevent the cash famines commonly found at particular points in the fiscal year from coinciding with the period of greatest need within agencies that have to cope with seasonal problems. Banks, too, may need to adjust lending and repayment schedules to the seasonal cycle. Another such area is education policy. It may often be advisable for the timing of school holidays to be made flexible with respect to area, so as to coincide with the busy season in a particular locality. In addition, the provision of free or subsidized school meals at particular times of year could play a vital

INTEGRATING

COUNTER-SEASONAL

PLANNING

255

role in reducing child malnutrition — provided, of course, that education were not restricted to the better-off. These two provisions might, in fact, usefully interact, for taken together they could well encourage poor families to send their children to school, if only as a means of reducing peak season demands on foods supplies. Finally, in some cases even certain aspects of foreign policy may have to be adjusted to take seasonality issues into account, as when seasonal labour migration or transhumance must cross international boundaries, or when irrigation development in upper riparian areas of one country causes reduced water flows and salt water intrusion in a country that lies further down the same watershed.

Appendix: Seasonal labour migration at the national level: An approach to rapid appraisal

It was argued in Chapter 6 that conventional methods of data collection are ill-adapted to capturing the nature, timing and extent of labour circulation, particularly seasonal migration within the rural areas. In most developing countries the only information available on such migration is localized and often purely descriptive, so that no reliable insights can be gained regarding the volume, timing, direction and duration of such flows or of their importance at the national level. To try to capture such information through a special purpose census would be extremely difficult, costly and time-consuming. An alternative, suggested here, is to use a 'rapid appraisal' approach quickly and inexpensively to sketch in the broad outlines of migration patterns across the country, and where they exist, across international boundaries. As with all RRA approaches, the process is necessarily iterative, and what will be reported here is merely the first step, serving to indicate key areas where subsequent more detailed research efforts should be concentrated. The method suggested here is a variant of the 'key informant' approach, common in micro-level studies. In a macro study what is required is a large number of such respondents, observers from all over the country who are both readily accessible and possessed of particular qualifications. First, they must be from rural areas and be both interested in, and informed about, rural life, particularly agriculture. Second, they must have some familiarity with the nature, methods and purposes of scientific enquiry. Third, they must be sufficiently well acquainted with, and have sufficient confidence in, the person collecting the data not to require the type of painstaking and time-consuming confidence-building procedures that are an essential (and often 256

SEASONAL LABOUR

MIGRATION

257

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Figure Ai. Regions of Bangladesh and number of respondents from each. Chittag = Chittagong; Mymens = Mymensingh; Patuak = Patuakhali; Chittht = Chittagong Hill Tracts; all other names not abbreviated.

neglected) aspect of good primary data collection in rural areas of developing countries. Taken together these three characteristics will permit the generation of data that are both rapidly collectable and reasonably accurate.

Table A i . A.reas under major crop categories by region (areas in thousands of hectares)

Aus rice

Aman rice

Boro rice

Total rice

Other crops

Region

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

Barisal Bogra

J

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

Total - cropped area

79

(26.5)

378

(55-8)

32

(4-7)

589

(87.0)

88

(13.0)

676

IOO

(19.2)

261

69

(i3-3)

429

(82.8)

89

(17-2)

518

2

(50.3) (27-5) (49-3) (42.6)

11

(12.0)

60

(34-6)

92

(24-4) (12.9)

411

(6 5 -4) (89.9)

32

46

(IO.I)

457

(22.6)

881

545

722

(,.8) (5-0)

542

(23-0

704

5°

(,,.0)

537 375

177 163 256

(24-5)

39

82

(32.3) (18.0)

(4-4) (3-7)

502

(77-4) (75-5) (76.9) (67-7) (82.0) (72.i)

199

(i5-i)

194

(27-9)

793 457 696

477

(86.5)

75

(13-5)

(1.0)

186

(53-5)

162

(46.5)

349

(86.0)

171

(14.0)

1 224

62

(i9-9) (1,.6)

1053 480

(10.5)

536

(8.6)

411

(89-5) (68.3)

56

52

190

(31-7)

601

CHT

24

Chittagong Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur Faridpur Jamalpur Jessore Khulna Kushtia Mymensingh Noakhali Pabna Patuakhali Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Tangail Bangladesh

74

(25-9) (16.3)

194

(22.0)

375

173

(24.0)

262

5

225

173

(M-5)

356

221

(27.8)

276

123

(26.9)

201

207

(29-7)

265

5°

(9-0

406

125 311 124

149 74 215 332 J

93 98

3139

(35-8)

(2 5-4) (^3-2) (24.8) (18.8)

(23.6) (26.6) (!9-4) (22.2) (23-7)

58 498 293 210

(36.4) (50.6) (34-9) (44-o) (38.o) (73-6) (16.7) (40.7) (54-7) (34-9)

i n 113 109 12

3i 20

3 244

682

55i

282

(7i-5)

10

(2-5)

366

(92.8)

28

(7-2)

432

61

(6-7)

708

(77-6)

204

(22.4)

395 9X3

561

(47-3) (44-9)

944

(75-5)

306

(24.5)

1 250

(47-i)

51 244

(4-i)

468

(24-5)

905

174

(39-5)

75

(17-0

346

(90.9) (78.8)

91 93

(9-i) (21.2)

995 439

6008

(45-3)

1 401

(,0.6)

10548

(79-6)

2702

(20.4)

13250

Note: ' Total cropped area' for any region is the total cultivated area multiplied by average cropping intensity; hence there is no double counting. CHT = Chittagong Hill Tracts. Source: Calculated from Bangladesh Government (1985), Tables 2.5, 2.11, 2.15 and 7.4. Totals may not sum exactly due to rounding

METHODOLOGY •

259

Methodology

The methodology was developed and tested in Bangladesh, which provides the material for the case study. The panel of key informants was composed of students of the Bangladesh Agricultural University. The data were collected by one of their teachers, an Associate Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Dr Md Abdul Jabbar. Dr Jabbar administered a Bengali language version of a simple four page questionnaire, designed by the present author, to all of his students who came from rural areas. There was a total 549 respondents, who represented — albeit unevenly — every administrative region of the country (Figure Ai). In terms of the desiderata outlined earlier, many of the reasons for choosing this particular panel will be obvious. By definition its members are (normally) rural residents, have an interest in and knowledge of agriculture, and are familiar with research requirements and techniques. The third condition is met because of the very high regard in which teachers are held in South Asia — as throughout the developing world. The questionnaire was deliberately kept short in order to minimize respondent fatigue. It fell into two parts, concerning respectively seasonal in-migration to, and out-migration from, the respondent's home village. Questions related to migrants' time(s) of arrival, length of stay, type of work, crop(s) on which they worked, type and level of wage payments, home and destination areas (of in-migrants and outmigrants respectively), approximate numbers involved and whether seasonal labour migration was a traditional or recent phenomenon.

• Factors making for macro-environmental diversity This is obviously no place for a detailed discussion of the complexities of Bangladesh agriculture, but at least some generalizations are necessary to provide a background against which seasonal labour migration can usefully be viewed. Even a cursory examination reveals a high degree of diversity with respect to macro-environmental conditions. This will perhaps come as a surprise to those accustomed to thinking of Bangladesh as a topographically homogeneous country. The most useful starting point is to examine the mix of crops and the cropping calendar: The country grows a wide variety of crops which are broadly classified, according to seasons in which they are grown, into two groups: (a) KhariJor

260

APPENDIX Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct Nov Dec

r3.0

• 2.0 1.0 L

Vertical scale of crop blocks (areas in millions of hectares)

0.0

Figure A2. Bangladesh: rainfall, generalized cropping calendar and areas under major crops. (Source: Drawn from data in Bangladesh Government 1985.)

MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL DIVERSITY

261

Bhadoi crops and (b) Rabi crops. Kharif crops are grown in the spring or summer and harvested in late summer or in early winter. Rabi crops are sown in winter and harvested in the spring or early summer (Bangladesh Government 1985, p. 5). The country does indeed grow a wide variety of crops, but its cropping patterns are absolutely dominated by just one of them, rice. Indeed the Bengali phrase for 'Have you eaten?' is 'Have you taken rice?'. This dominance is reflected in Table Ai, which shows the area and percentage under rice for the crop year immediately before the case study. In every region more than half the cropped area is under this crop, and overall it occupies four-fifths of the country's cropped area. This dominance by a single crop may at first sight suggest little scope for the type of macro-environmental diversity in production conditions that fuels seasonal labour migration, but this is not the case. Even within rice production there are several sources of variation which together create significant inter-regional diversity in the timing of agricultural operations. The table lists three rice crops: aus, grown in the early kharif season; aman, which is grown in the second half of kharif; and boro, a rabi crop. Although all three types of rice are grown in every region of the country, there is obviously large inter-regional variation in their relative importance. Hence, although in terms of the nation's (and most regions') total cropped area the order of importance of the three rice crops is first aman, then aus, then boro, there are important exceptions. In both Chittagong and Sylhet the area under boro is greater than that under aus, while Kushtia (a) grows more than twice as much aus as aman and (b) has a much higher proportion of nonrice crops than any other region. Even in regions where the relative importance of the three crops is the same as at the national level, differences in relative magnitudes can be quite large. Compare, for example, the relative importance of boro and aman in Patuakhali and Mymensingh, or the relative importance of aus in the neighbouring regions of Khulna and Jessore. Figure A2 depicts a generalized version of cropping calendars across the country. In the diagram, crops are arranged in descending order of importance, in terms of area, with the heights of each quadrilateral being proportional to the area under the crop in question. The fact that both ends of the crop blocks in this diagram are wedge-shaped indicates that operations for establishing and harvesting each crop are spread over a period of time — at least a month, and often as much as three months. This partly reflects inter-year differences, but it also reflects local differences in many of the natural and manmade environmental

262

APPENDIX

factors which were discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. The first difference arises from transplanting. Local varieties of transplanted aus generally go on to the land around a month after broadcast varieties.1 In aman the gap is even greater, because broadcast amans are usually deep-water varieties, which are sown in the pre-monsoon season before flooding starts, whereas transplanted ones are shallow-water varieties, planted near the end of the monsoon season. The second source of differentiation is crop variety. Figure A2 distinguishes only two categories, 'local' and ' H Y V , but there are in fact several modern, and tens of thousands of local, varieties, each differing with respect to maturity character, flood-tolerance, drought-tolerance, stem length and other characteristics that create diversity in growing season and growing period. Even so, there is often a significant difference between the timing of crop operations on 'local' varieties and 'HYVs'. This is reflected in Figure A2, (compare, for example, the two types of boro, where the divergence is due primarily to differences with respect to cold-tolerance). An example in an earlier chapter (see Figure 5.1 and discussion) showed similar differences in timing for modern and traditional varieties of transplanted aman. The third source of diversity is species: twenty per cent of the country's total cropped area is, after all, under crops other than rice. There are more than sixty of these, differing in importance from area to area, and only a very few of the major ones are shown in the figure. The most important non-rice crop, and the farmer's major cash crop, is jute. The importance of jute is magnified by the fact that it is a crop of the early kharif season and across much of the country provides one of the few alternatives to aus rice. The greater number and variety of non-rice crops are grown in the rabi season, when what has traditionally been the least important of the rice crops, boro, is also grown. Major crops of this season are foodgrains (particularly wheat), pulses, oilseeds, vegetables (especially potato), and a number of industrial crops, such as sugar-cane and tobacco. Most of these crops are not shown in Figure A2, because the area under each is relatively small. Collectively, however, they make a considerable impact on overall production of food and fibre. Diversification in rabi cropping further contributes to regional diversity, for the importance of these crops varies very greatly from region to region. A major reason for the third position of the boro crop in Bangladesh is that the rabi season is the dry season, and rice with its high moisture requirements can be grown only under irrigation or where the level of moisture retained in the soil is unusually high. This last point

MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL DIVERSITY

; • . : : : : : : : Dhaka '•'•'•'. 'r^y.'.

Key: ^

^

More

^^ ^QQQ m m

2501-3500 mm 2001-2500 mm 1500-2000 mm Kilometres 0

25 50

75

Less than 1500 mm 100

Figure A3. Annual rainfall distribution by regions.

263

264

APPENDIX

introduces a further source of inter-regional diversity in agricultural production in Bangladesh: soil moisture. As indicated in Chapter 4, many factors help determine the amount of water that is available to a crop in relation to its needs at any particular time of year. Just two of these, rainfall and irrigation, will be considered here. Walsh (1981) has analysed a number of case studies of rainfall seasonality in countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America; one of them was Bangladesh. Of all the areas studied he found Bangladesh to have the least degree of rainfall seasonality, comprising only two classes: C3 and D3 (see Table 2.1). Nevertheless, as Figure A2 shows, rainfall patterns in Bangladesh are still very markedly seasonal, varying from almost nothing in November to January to around 400 mm in June, July and August. Variation in the total level of rainfall, as well as in its seasonal distribution, can have a profound effect upon agricultural seasons. Regional variation in total annual rainfall across Bangladesh is very high (much higher, indeed, than is suggested by Walsh's figures). Figure A3 shows total rainfall by region averaged over a ten year period. This indicates a very clear pattern to the rainfall regime, which ranges from very high levels in the east of the country to what are, by the standards of the humid tropics, fairly moderate levels in the west. The extent of variation is very great, ranging from 1350 mm in the driest region, Rajshahi in the far west, to more than three times that level (4200 mm) in the wettest region, Sylhet, on the opposite side of the country. Table A2 shows the extent of irrigation in the country. It is interesting to compare these figures with those in Table 5.2, for this shows that in terms of the proportion of cultivated area which is under irrigation, the Bangladeshi figure, while significantly less than the Asian average, is virtually the same as the average for the developing world as a whole. It would, of course, be fallacious to argue from this that results from Bangladeshi studies are applicable elsewhere, but it does show that 'irrigation bias' is likely to be neither unduly high nor unduly low — at least in terms of developing world averages. Across the country there is clearly very considerable variation in the importance of this factor of production: in proportionate terms Chittagong Region has almost ten times as much of its cultivated area under irrigation as has Patuakhali, while, in absolute terms, Mymensingh has 24 times as much irrigated land as the Chittagong Hill Tracts. There are, of course, many reasons for this variation, but the important point as far as the present discussion is concerned is that irrigation adds yet another factor to the mix that results in regional diversity, and

MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL DIVERSITY

265

Table A2. Bangladesh: Irrigated area by region (1984Ij) (areas in thousands of hectares)

Region

Engine-powered

Other Methods

Total

Area

Area

(%)

Area

(%)

Chittagong 74 100 Bogra Kushtia 55 Mymensingh 189 80 Tangail Sylhet 75 Dhaka "3 Jamalpur 64 Comilla 99 Rangpur 94 no Rajshahi Jessore 7° Pabna 56 CHT 5 Noakhali 25 Barisal 23 Dinajpur 47 Khulna 17 Faridpur 23 Patuakhali 14 Bangladesh '334

(%)

96

(43-5) (40.9) (38.2)

265

(37-9)

(i-4) (17.6) (4-4)

83 '95

(33-3)

135

(26.6)

(i-9)

69

(25-9)

(25-5)

51

(17-7)

125

(33-8)

21

(7-0

121

(21.9)

4i

(27.0)

76 3

(16.4) (10.9)

(32.0) (10.9)

121

(22.2)

23

(24.0)

5

(28.$)

(19.1) (13.8)

28

(5-5) (8.6)

128

(24.6)

59

152

(22.4)

(M-9)

26

(3-8)

137

(19-7)

(13.8)

20

(3-9)

90

(17.8)

(1.6)

62

(16.6)

(8.6)

11

50

(15.0)

(6.6) (7-2)

6 6

(4-9) (9-3) (3-9) (4-7) (4-6)

37

(7-0) (7-9)

61

(15-*) (14.2) (12.8)

14

(2.8)

62

(12.,)

14

(3-3)

31

(7-2)

9

(i-9)

(6.6)

0

(0.1)

33 '4

(15-4)

$86

(6.8)

1920

25

(4-7) (22.2)

Notes: 1. 'Engine powered' irrigation refers to electric- or diesel-powered pumps and tubewells. 'Other methods' refer largely to traditional manual devices for lifting water from streams, canals and wells. 2. The percentage figures show irrigated area as a proportion of the region's cultivated area (i.e. net of multiple cropping). The regions are arranged in descending order according to the percentage of net cropped area under irrigation. Source: Calculated from figures in Bangladesh Government (1985). Tables 5.7 and 7.2.

266

APPENDIX

through it the 'push' and 'pull' factors that lead to seasonal labour migration. A small part of the complex linkage between moisture regime and cropping pattern - and one which, as will be shown later, is an important determinant of migrant labour flows — can be illustrated by returning to the figures in Table Ai. Here it was shown that two regions, Sylhet and Chittagong, have almost a quarter of their total rice area under boro. In Chittagong this results from two factors. First, as the most heavily irrigated region in the country, it can support a substantial area of this water-demanding crop in the dry season. Second, Chittagong contains the most southerly parts of Bangladesh, and many places are too warm even in winter for alternative temperate crops, especially wheat but also potato, which can be grown under winter irrigation in more northerly areas. In the case of Sylhet, the high proportion of boro results in large measure from the fact that much of the region is low-lying, so that large tracts of land are too deeply flooded for crops to be grown in other seasons. Even on relatively high land, the high rainfall levels and the fact that a great deal of surface water descends on Sylhet from the hills of Assam, means that there is an ever-present danger of flooding in the rainy season. On the other hand, the heavy flooding results in soil moisture levels during the winter months which are sufficiently high to support a crop of boro at a time of year when in most of the country such a crop can be grown only under irrigation. Sylhet has by far the largest area of non-irrigated boro in the country, an estimated 70000 hectares in the year before the migrant labour study. This is more than three times the corresponding figure for the next highest region (Comilla, which is immediately downstream of Sylhet), ten times the corresponding figure for Chittagong and more than a third of the total for the entire country. Another point that is worth noting about Sylhet is that it is one of the few regions in which engine-powered forms of irrigation are, in terms of irrigated area, less important than traditional methods (Table A2). This region also has the highest total area by far —121000 hectares or twenty per cent of the national total — under manual irrigation. This is a further reflection of the relative abundance of water in parts of Sylhet: abundant surface water in the dry season — especially in conjunction with unusually high levels of soil moisture - means that the amount of effort required to irrigate a crop will be unusually low, and any required irrigation can be delivered by manual methods. The existence of relatively low irrigation requirements for a normally

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

267

irrigated crop have in themselves important implications for labour demand. Lower-than-normal irrigation requirements reduce the production costs of rice, and thus, other things being equal, will increase its relative attractiveness for the farmer. To the extent that this potential is realized, labour demand for boro rice will tend to increase. The unusually high area under boro in Sylhet certainly suggests that this production potential is indeed being realized. The effect on the level and seasonal distribution of labour demand is discussed below.

+ The case study findings The discussion here falls into two parts. The first two sections, although they present the case study findings, are also closely concerned with checking their validity against what is known about regional differences in cropping patterns and the timing of crop operations as summarized above. The remainder of the analysis rests on the case study findings alone.

TYPE OF EMPLOYMENT

The type of work done by seasonal migrants, as reported by the case study respondents, is shown in Figure A4. Clearly the agricultural sector is the dominant employer of such labour: overall onlyfiveper cent reported migrants as working on non-agricultural tasks.2 (Such work is dominated by construction work, especially under government sponsored ' food-for-work' schemes.) Within the agricultural sector the harvest period is clearly the most important single source of employment for migrants. Obviously this is an operation in which speed is essential, but another important reason for this dominance is that this is the time of year when farmers are best able to pay for hired labour, either in cash or in kind. Local labourers can be employed at various times throughout the year on the understanding that they will be paid after the harvest, but such an arrangement would clearly be much more difficult to conclude with labourers from another part of the country. There is, nevertheless, a considerable volume of non-harvest work done by migrants, and again considerable inter-regional diversity. In many parts of the country harvesting and post-harvest operations provide only half (in Barisal less than half) of the seasonal employment. These are typically areas in which transplanted rice is relatively

268

APPENDIX

D • L !_• i /••••! \ Rajshani/ Eiiii-tLi

) 'pi^Jffl I 5 V *** '

Mymens '

Tangail

Non-agricultural w o r k ^ S o w i n g or transplanting^ Other agricultural work B P ^ S Weeding Kilometres 6 25 50 75 100

Harvest/crop processing

Figure A4. Type of work performed by migrants (percentages).

important, for seasonal migrants are often employed for transplanting, which, unlike sowing broadcast, is a labour-intensive task (see Figure A6). Weeding is generally third in importance, although here too there is marked inter-regional variation: in three regions it is more important than sowing/transplanting. Although weeding is a very labourintensive task, its timing is not so crucial as that of transplanting and harvesting. It is interesting that these findings as to the relative importance of these three tasks coincide exactly with those of an earlier

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

269

Sugar-cane

Jute jttg^igj Other winter crops ~'

crops

Kilometres

6 25 50 75 100 Figure A5. Crops on which migrants work.

farm-level study which covered the regions of Rangpur, Bogra, Dhaka, Comilla and Noakhali (Gill, 1981, 1983). In the case study there were very few reports (only one per cent) of migrant labour being used for land preparation. This too accords with the findings of the study just reported: almost all land preparation in Bangladesh is done by bullock plough, and farmers are extremely reluctant to entrust valuable animals to a stranger who might maltreat them. If labour is hired for ploughing it is as part of a complete

270

APPENDIX

ploughing team, comprising ploughman, animals, yoke and plough — a system that effectively rules out migration. When migrants are employed for land preparation it is either for ridging or for manual breaking of clods for crops that require an especially fine tilth. The dominance of rice in the agriculture of Bangladesh is reflected in Figure A 5. This is obviously true at the aggregate level, but in many cases the inter-regional differences in the relative importance of this crop are also reflected in this diagram. Hence the unusually high proportion of the total cropped area of Sylhet, Chittagong and Patuakhali Regions which is under rice (Table Ai) is echoed in the seasonality of employment for these regions, as shown in Figure A5.3 At the other end of the scale, Kushtia Region has the lowest proportion of total cropped area under rice and the lowest reported proportion of migrants working on this crop. Two major cash crops, jute and sugar-cane, emerge from the case study as important in the employment of seasonal migrants. Postharvest processing of jute is unusually labour intensive, as the fibre must be stripped from the stalk by hand after retting is completed. Sugar-cane production falls into two sectors, depending upon whether traditional or modern methods of processing are used. In both cases harvesting is labour intensive, while in the traditional sector the processing of the extracted juice into jaggery is a skilled job normally performed by itinerant specialists who may well be seasonal migrants. No other individual crop was mentioned by a sufficient number of respondents to merit special mention. It is clear, however, that 'other winter crops' (i.e. other than boro rice and sugar-cane, which is harvested in winter) provide a significant level of employment for migrants in some regions. THE TIMING OF SEASONAL MIGRATION

Examination of the distribution of employment between the three main tasks and between the three main rice seasons, as shown in Figure A6, highlights some important differences between these crops.4 One crucial point to emerge is a clear negative relationship between employment in transplanting and weeding. With only one important exception, rice which is grown under wetland conditions in Bangladesh is transplanted, while that which is grown as an ' upland' crop is sown broadcast. One important benefit of growing a crop infloodedfieldsis that this suppresses weeds, few of which can tolerate such conditions. Hence there is an important element of trade-off here: transplanted/

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

271

Transplanting/sowin Weeding Harvesting 0

Boro/Aus/Aman Kilometres 25 50 75 100

Figure A6. Distribution of migrants' work among rice crops.

wetland rice is labour-intensive for transplanting, but not for weeding, while in the case of broadcast/upland rice these conditions are reversed. This fact emerges very clearly from Figure A6, as does another important point, namely the fact that boro and aman (apart from deep-water aman) are usually grown as transplanted/wetland crops,

272

APPENDIX

while aus is usually, but not always, grown as a broadcast/upland one.5 The relative importance of transplanting and weeding for the three rice crops is clearly shown in the figure. The impact of these conditions on the employment of seasonal migrants is seen most clearly in the case of Rangpur Region in the north, but the overall pattern can be discerned in most of the histograms of this map. Generally speaking, the overall dominance of transplanted aman in the agriculture of Bangladesh is reflected in the picture of seasonal distribution of employment as depicted in Figure A6. So too are certain other facts, such as the relative importance of aus in Kushtia, Jessore and Faridpur. However, it would be quite wrong to assume that the level of employment provided by a particular operation on a particular crop is simply a function of the area it occupies. This is most clearly illustrated in the case of Sylhet, where Figure A6 shows that migrant labour is mainly employed for boro rice. This is despite the fact that the area under this crop is only around half as much as that under aman. This is most interesting, for it reflects what is known about production conditions for boro in that region. In areas of Sylhet that flood deeply time is of the essence in the production of boro, for the growing season is unusually short. The land must be prepared and the crop transplanted as early as possible after the floodwater has receded, for if it is not and the next season's flooding occurs even a little earlier than usual the crop may be wiped out before it can be harvested. Similarly there is a need to get the harvest in as swiftly as possible, so that those parts of Sylhet that are subject to early flooding require a large number of labourers within a relatively short period of time. As the diagram suggests, this creates considerable 'pull' conditions for seasonal migration twice a year. It also shows a relative lack of employment opportunities in other regions at this time of year, and this can be assumed to create reinforcing 'push' factors for migrants. It is interesting in this context once more to compare the situation in Sylhet with that in Chittagong, which also has around 2 5 per cent of its total cropped area under boro rice. Here the crop is mainly grown under the much more controlled and manageable conditions of irrigation, so that the seasonal distribution of employment of migrants more closely reflects the relative importance of the three rice crops in terms of area. What has been said so far indicates that where it has been possible to compare case study findings with what is already known about the spatial and temporal mix of agricultural activities in Bangladesh the former hold up very well indeed. We can now therefore proceed to draw conclusions based upon the case study results alone. If these

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

273

conclusions seem at times to push far beyond the limits warranted by the data, the twofold purpose of the approach should be recalled. First, using very broad brush strokes, it attempts quickly to give an overall picture, where otherwise the scene on the ground would be shrouded in fog (broken at best by the occasional small gaps which micro studies provide). Second, it serves to pinpoint areas where further and more rigorous research is required for purposes of clarification. THE VOLUME OF MIGRATORY

FLOWS

Table A3 shows the average reported levels of in-migration per village by month and by region. Although these figures may seem quite high, they probably understate the true situation, for, no matter how conscientious respondents are in reporting migratory flows of which they are aware, it can reasonably be assumed that there may be other such flows, perhaps even in their own villages, of which they are unaware. However, there is no particular reason to suppose that this factor produces any systematic bias in the results with respect to relative importance by month or by region. Examination of the numbers involved in seasonal flows adds another dimension to the purely proportionate picture presented in Figure A6. The figures on Sylhet are again interesting, since employment there peaks at such very different times of year from all other regions. Moreover this region employs around 50 per cent more migrant-days per village than the national average, which is obviously important in view of the timing difference. The degree of inter-regional variation is clearly very large. Khulna emerges as the most important region in terms of number of migrantdays per village, with more than twice the national average. As Figure A6 showed, this migration is very heavily concentrated on the transplanting and harvesting of aman rice: no other region has such a high concentration for either task. It is obviously no coincidence that Khulna also has a higher proportion of its total cropped area under aman than any other region in the country (Table Ai). Perhaps more important still is the difference in employment peaks between Khulna and its neighbouring regions of Jessore, Faridpur and Barisal. In each of these regions aman rice is much less important than in Khulna (occupying 38, 35 and 56 per cent respectively of these regions' rice areas compared with Khulna's 74 per cent). In the case of Faridpur, for example, the main crop is deep-water aman, which is harvested in October—November, whereas in Khulna it is mainly transplanted aman,

Table A3. Mean levels of seasonal in-migration by region and by month (person-days/village)

Region Barisal Bogra Chittagong Comilla Dhaka

Jan/

Feb/

Mar/

Apr/

May/

jun/

Jul/

Aug/

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

67 67 95

78

89

100

25 16

42

159

56 175

0

0

0

114

5 84

10

780

0

11

301

267

209

J4°

222

271

171

33 63 57 I2 3 590 2

209

127

346

0

0

144

0

75

224

127

224

118

52

26

2

0

0

75 32

472

32 563

190

495 445 467

381 16

260

182

113 209

329 627

68 132

Jessore Khulna Kushtia Mymensingh Noakhali Pabna Patuakhali Rajshahi Rangpur

'4!

123

404 163

Dinajpur Faridpur Jamalpur

168

16

2

0

96

84

52

355 5O5 jpo 641

t)'

306

3J4 i93 263 474 304 753 604

i75

1533

334

2923

187 872

4 2 79

37°

2

JJ*

380

2832

0

15

15

25

84

34

328

109

369 328

214

157

3i7

701

202

53 336

43

78 85 378 99

283 145

in

71

110

382

37O

34i

219

271

118

356 '343

"7

Bangladesh

328 720

289 428

0

»7 34 86

52

166

45

59

5 34

170

380

97

0

21

34i

870

2846 3696 2987 3852 6023

2

34

1226

794 347

1335

44

0

90

7'4

"i 167

42

Sylhet Tangail

33°

106

130

44

354 59

890 6oj

849 2656 1412 3421 2402

95

3°

0

290

75 159 2 43 334 433 173

402

0

175

33 777

494

15

0

45 526 48

Year

100

482

15

5°

261

63 5 87 3O7

Nov/ Dec/ Dec Jan

5i5

68

5

35

0

Oct/ Nov

797

230

5 74 8

Sep/ Oct

66

75

0

109

12

12

48

0

5

0

0

0

49 264

74

37

187

94

75 146 86 J

93

80

2846 2

310

493 870

92

1131

997 55i

Notes: i. Figures in italics are peak months for the Region in question. 2. Months were reported according to Bengali calendar; equivalent segment of western calendar (i.e. mid-month to mid-month) is indicated here.

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

275

which is harvested in December—January. In none of these regions does employment peak at the same time as in Khulna, a factor which would clearly provide both ' push' and ' pull' forces favouring migration into Khulna. This question is taken up again later. From a policy viewpoint, village level averages are less interesting than the overall level of seasonal migration and its spatial and temporal distribution. Estimates of the latter are presented in Figure A7. These figures were derived by multiplying the average number of reported migrants per village by the number of villages in the region in question (Bangladesh Government 1986). This is obviously a very rough-andready approach, but nevertheless, where the number of villages from which the estimates were drawn is reasonably large, and assuming that the villages from which the panel was drawn are reasonably representative with regard to region-wide migration patterns, the estimates should not be too wide of the mark for present purposes.6 Seasonal labour migration clearly emerges as a major feature of the agricultural economy, engaging, according to these (minimum) estimates — and exclusive of travel times — no less than 240 million person-days annually. When this macro-level picture is examined, the relative positions of Khulna and Sylhet, as shown in Table A3, are reversed. This is because Sylhet is a much more densely populated region than Khulna. Both have approximately the same geographical area, but large tracts of the south of Khulna lie within the Sundarbans Reserve Forest. Sylhet has 10000 villages against Khulna's 3500 (Bangladesh Government 1986). What is most noticeable about the Sylheti pattern, apart from the sheer size of the histogram bars, is their extreme seasonal variation and the difference in timing from most other regions. The relationship between in- and out-migration as depicted in this map is an interesting one, for it should immediately be apparent that the total reported level of the former exceeds that of the latter by a very large margin. Were this picture correct, it would imply a very substantial volume of net in-migration to the rural sector of Bangladesh from other areas. And since no respondent mentioned cross-frontier migration, these other areas could only be the towns and cities within the country. Urban—rural migration is known to be fairly common in Bangladesh. Migrants working in the urban informal sector (especially rickshaw pullers) typically spend most of the year in the towns and cities, but return to their home villages at peak seasons, particularly for the harvest. This conforms with the evidence provided by Mukherji (1985) for Varanasi and other Indian cities. Moreover, since these

276

APPENDIX

Kilometres

0

25 50 75 100

Figure A7. Estimated monthly distribution of in- and out-migration (thousands of person-months).

migrants tend to live in particular areas of the cities, often in shared 'bachelor quarters', the conditions exist for informal information exchange about seasonal employment opportunities in various parts of the country. Hence it is not unreasonable to hypothesize that the cities

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

2

77

Migrants coming from Migrants going to

Within district > ^ F=K Within district Neighbouring district y l | | | fen!;! Neighbouring district Other districts^™ P ^ Other districts Kilometres 0

(No shading indicates no data)

25 50 75 100

Figure A8. Regions of origin and destination of migrants (percentages).

may contain labour reservoirs which support a more complex pattern of labour circulation than just the occasional return to the home village. Nevertheless this hypothesized net urban-rural migration, even if correct, is most unlikely to explain more than a small fraction of the huge difference in the two sets offlowsdepicted in Figure A7. The bulk of difference can almost certainly be ascribed to a limitation of the methodology. University students are most likely to come from the upper strata of rural society, and hence from families that employ,

278 APPENDIX rather than supply, seasonal migrants. Such persons may be aware o/the departure of surplus labour from their villages during the slack season(s), but they are unlikely to have the same detailed level of information that they can supply about in-migrants working on the farms of family and friends. This does not, however, invalidate the findings as to the volume and timing of migratory flows, for, net urban-rural flows apart,figureson in- and out-migration are simply mirror images of each other, and either set, if correct, would by itself present the complete picture. (This is why Table A3 presented figures on in-migration only.) Nor, indeed, does it invalidate the findings of a study of the relative importance of in- and out-migration, for figures on out-migration from any given .region can be calculated from the reports on the provenance of inmigrants provided by respondents from all other regions taken together. This last approach has been used in the calculation of total and net inter-region flows in the next section. DIRECTION OF MIGRATORY FLOWS

Figure A8 shows in proportionate terms the regions of origin of inmigrants and destination of out-migrants as reported by the panel of case study respondents. In order to avoid unduly complicating the picture at this stage, these flows have been placed into only three categories: those within the region, those between neighbouring regions (i.e. those with a common border) and 'others'. Clearly for most regions the bulk of migration may be termed ' local', i.e. within the region or between neighbouring regions. Khulna is an extreme example of this, and this may well be connected to the fact, noted earlier, that this region's (area-weighted) rice seasons are somewhat out of phase with those of its neighbours, so that shortdistance migration is induced. At the other extreme is Sylhet, where major 'pull' factors discussed earlier reinforce the important 'push' factor that Sylhet's peak is the slack season elsewhere in the country. This combination is evidently sufficient to overcome the relatively high transaction costs and lengthy travelling times implicit in long distance migration. In other parts of the country, where agricultural seasons are more similar over a relatively large geographical area, small differences in the timing of labour peaks may justify labour circulation within a region, or into a neighbouring one, but there may be neither sufficient time nor sufficient financial incentive to justify venturing further afield. Khulna is evidently a case in point.

Table A4. Regions of provenance and destination of seasonal migrants

(a) Estimated total migration (in thousands of person-months) Regions in-migrants come from Barisal Bogra Chittagong Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur Faridpur Jamalpur Jessore Khulna Kushtia Mymensingh Noakhali Pabna Patuakhali Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Tangail Total* 'Long distance'

Total *

Long Disstance

92 _ 3

427

161

0

0

180

0

0

Regions out-migrants go to Bar

Bog

Com Dha

Ctg 16

20

0

0

93

0

0

3 7

4_

23

6

_l

0

0

28

172

0

0

0

0

7 3

11

0

3'

18 40

0

11

0

254

0

0

465

M4 45 " 26

0

13

0

8

114

10

.

95

10

*8

0

8_

0

0

0

0

.

356

0

167

•59

0

0

0

95

12

318

10 10

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

4_

0

0

0

0

0

234

0

0

26

3

36

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

20

0

63

0

0

0

204

7

0

0

0

_7

402

83

1 296

'4

0

80

'55

11

138

0

11

10

0

12

0

25

0

7°

0

0

12

0

8

0

0

369

0

0

0

0

32

12

29

40

0

59

26

21

0

23

0

0

53

0

0

0

0

3

25

0

0

13

.36

0

2_

10

0

0

0

0

4

j_

77

323

90

729

3

'9

4'

46

.

-42_ 0

3_

"5

0

0

0

0

0

4*

0

6

8

0

0

13

0

282

'4

0

0

0

0

0

4_

0

7

0

78

126

11

14

0

0

0

0

40

0

0

0

0

0

69

8

0

0

2

9

0

3

0

28

4

IO<

494

7°5

180

561

60

'37

719

190

1425

210

8029

"7

58

36

51

0

23

204

48

790

29

1786

O

0 0

6.3

480

736

23'

174

11S

36

10

7' 3

114

0

29

95

4

0

8

—2

0

0

—4

0

0

0

-3 3

0

0

0

0

0

0

'3 '7

0

-- 2 1 2 -- 1 6 4

-9

-7

8 —2

-26 -62

-7

-20

— 10 — 1 0 144 0

0

0

0

-26

0

-29

'35

•9

6

0

"49

6

49

0

0

40

0

-19

0

0

-'3 4

-8

0

-21

0

0

-32 —12

0

0

—3

0

7 -6 56

— 22

0

0

O

0

3

14

0

142

3

1

—1

0

0

0

4

0

—8

0

0

212

0

26

62

22

-13

0

0 10

- 10 — 28 81 — 17

0

28 — 10

10

-81

0

10

0

10

--144

0

0

-- ' 3 5 -19

0

18

0

0

13

—4

8

0

0 12

0

-18

7 z 1 64 7

0

-6

— 40

0

0

0

0

32

20

26

49

3 M

0

0

9

0

0

0

18 129

0

0

0

9

0

0

— 142

— 169

- 11

—3

34

20

118

81

441

-

•4 75 •33

0 0

0

28

0

84 392

0 0

0

0

211

0

— 10

2

180

601

0

3

0

321

10

0

2O

29

7 3'°

0

-- " 5

-7 -46 -19

8

-5 --294 -- 1 8 5

The underlined figures in the first table represent ' long distance * migration,

240

0

92

-18

— 129

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-9

142

-3

'5

—7

169 u

0

0

-3 -•4

—142

0

0

0

0

—4

0

0

0

-80

— 158

0

0

-3 -- 362 -54

240

— 25

-49

--735

thousand.

7

O

0

-

-

310

4 7 4 0

—4 4 1

-81

3 '9

294 185

11

—8

—2 4 0 —2 4 0

0

0 0

25

4

80 138

261 46;

0

11

-64

0 11

64

328

— 5'9

— '3

— 20

"5 46

0

- 10

—7

— •43 -58 —118

54 3 7

-11

— 465

35°

3 —4 -3 3 -34

0

0

-3

786

362

28

-261

25 170 1

3

0

11 0

i.e. that between non-neighbouring

sum to the totals shown. A.H calculations are correct to the nearest

'34

3°3

0

0

3

0

3__ 52

"- 7

0

0

0

_ 7°9

0

0

21

0 0

—4

22

0

- 3 - 22

6 -56

'9

-6

—7 —4 — 11

0

27

_i

0

—3 —4

0

'4 202

29

L

-3

39

3__ 1029 416 34

3'3

34

0

7 0 0

'75

0

280

0

7' "3

.

53i

0

0 0

2Q

34

0

6

'75

7.

9

) 611

0

0

0

10

24

27

'5

2

0

0

24

4_

0

7

4 4 -_4 7 _4

0

7.

_I2

.

10

2O

75 9_

0

Kus

0

10

0

may not always exactly

11

12

0

3

161

0

67

58

0

20

0

'43

0

346

9

4

0

_2

0

0

3

0

0

0

3_

0

'3

0

0

0

-8

22

0

O

0

— 28

0

O

0

7_

10

7

0

5

0

4

0

7

0

12

0

11

16

0

0

0

39

0

0

'9

'3

0

4

0 0

17

3 -3 4 -5

0

0

95

0

'9

Barisal 0 Bogra -16 Chittagong Comilla 3 Dhaka -3 0 Dinajpur — 114 Faridpur 0 Jamalpur -29 Jessore Khulna -95 Kushtia —4 0 Mymemsingh 0 Noakhali Pabna 3 Patuakhali 7 Rajshahi —7 0 Rangpur -92 Sylhet Tangail -3 Total* -35°

0

130

10

27

Pat

0

Jam Jes

Tan

R.an Syl

Raj

Pab

10

0

0

Mym Noa

Far

0

3_

Khu

Din

0

- 2 8

73!

•3 — 328

10

5'9

-100

— 1289

100

1289

93 -93

regions. * Due to rounding^ the rows and columns

0

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

281

Table A4 presents a more detailed picture, providing estimates of migration levels between every pair of regions. These figures were arrived at in a similar way to those of Figure Ay, i.e. by using the number of villages in a region as a scaling factor to apply to the villagelevel averages.7 These annual totals have then been divided proportionately among the various regions to which out-migrants reportedly go and from which in-migrants are reported to come. Table A4(a) reads like an input-output table. For example, reading across the row for Barisal shows that of the estimated total of 427000 personmonths of seasonal migration this region provides, 20000 stay within Barisal itself, none go to Bogra, 16000 go to Chittagong, and so forth. Similarly, reading down the column for Barisal, of the total of 77000 person-months of migrant labour employed in the region, again 20000 come from within the region, none come from either Bogra or Chittagong, 3000 come from Comilla, 7000 from Dhaka, and so on. The table therefore consists of : (a) a diagonal of cells running from the top left to the bottom right, showing the number of migrants who stay within their own regions; (b) a triangle of cells to the top-right of this diagonal showing the estimates of out-migration, and (c) a triangle to the bottom-left of the diagonal showing the corresponding estimates of in-migration. Estimates of net out-flows are shown in Table A4(b). These are obtained simply by subtracting the estimate on in-migration from that on out-migration for each pair of regions. Thus, for example, Table A4(a) shows an estimated migratory flow from Barisal to Dhaka of 10000 person-months, with 7000 going in the opposite direction. Table A4(b) therefore shows an estimated out-flow of 3000 person-months from Barisal to Dhaka and a corresponding figure of — 3000 from Dhaka to Barisal (i.e. a net in-flow to Dhaka). These estimates reveal several significant features. First, seven regions emerge as net suppliers of substantial volumes (more than 100 000 person-months annually) of seasonal labour to other parts of the country. If the need to engage in seasonal migration is, as several authors have suggested, to be regarded as a symptom of severe seasonal stress, then further investigation of seasonal migration from these regions should be a matter of some priority. In contrast to this, Sylhet Region's position at the top of the seasonal in-migration league is clearly confirmed by these figures: not only does it take an exceptionally high number of in-migrants, but it takes them from almost all other parts of the country - thus reinforcing the view that the combination of ' push' and ' pull' factors generated by its unusual pattern of labour

282

APPENDIX

requirements must be sufficient to overcome considerable transaction costs. Particular patterns of inter-regional migration emerging from this table lend plausibility to some of the speculation about migratory flows earlier in the Appendix. For example, the table shows that Khulna draws the overwhelming bulk of its migrants from three of its four neighbouring regions: Faridpur (41 per cent of all out-of-region migrants), Jessore (25 per cent) and Barisal (25 per cent); the fourth neighbour, Patuakhali, supplies none. There are two likely explanations for this last factor. First, as Table Ai showed, Khulna and Patuakhali both have unusually high proportions of their cultivated areas under aman rice, whereas the other three regions have larger areas under crops other than rice, and within rice a much higher ratio of aus to aman. This would make for a relatively less tight labour situation in these regions during operations on aman, and hence provide a seasonal 'push' for out-migration which is not matched in Patuakhali. The second factor is that Patuakhali's border with Khulna Region is with the unpopulated Sundarbans Reserve Forest, while the border itself comprises a fairly wide stretch of water. Both factors would obviously make for high transaction costs. In fact Patuakhali provides relatively few migrants to any other region, other than Barisal, which almost surrounds it. It comes as no surprise to discover that what little long-distance outmigration there is from Patuakhali goes mainly to Sylhet. At the other end of the scale as far as Sylhet is concerned, Table A4 shows that the most important source region for long distance seasonal in-migration is Dhaka. This is actually quite a well-known flow and some of its intricacies are described in the Conclusions section below. At the other extreme from Sylhet is the relatively impoverished region of Noakhali. Here the relative positions of in- and out-migration are reversed. Figure A8 showed this region to be unusual in that the largest proportion of its out-migrants go to non-neighbouring regions, although why this should be the case is not clear. Before leaving this particular topic, one more specific inter-regional flow should be mentioned, that between Rangpur and Rajshahi. Figure A7 showed a quite high degree of out-migration from Rangpur during the months March/April to July/August and a corresponding peak in in-migration to Rajshahi during roughly the same period. This suggests that labourers migrate from Rangpur to Rajshahi, and the data in Table A4 show this supposition to be correct. An estimated 78000 personmonths of labour migrates annually from Rangpur to Rajshahi, with comparatively little in the opposite direction, so that the net figure is

28}

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

Table A 5. Distances between areas of inter-migration Net out-

In-migration

Out-migration

migration :

Region Barisal Bogra Chittagong Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur Faridpur

Jamalpur Jessore Khulna

Mean (km) 43-3 36.6 32.8 5 7-4 !'-4 25.0 65.5 70.9 30.1

Standard deviation (km) 35.8 16.4 10.2 54-4 44.1 **

58.8 60.9 18.7

5 5-4

52.2

Kushtia 41.; Mymensingh 53-7 50.6 Noakhali 59.1 Pabna Patuakhali 30.3 Rajshahi 43-9 Rangpur 73-* Sylhet 73-5 Tangail 55.6

27.9 35.6

Bangladesh

55.0

25-3 44.6

Volumeweighted distance* ('000 kpm)

Mean (km)

18489 6581

49.8 50.2

1 o;i 35082

53-' 47.6 67.6 65.0 29.4 56.3

2

73'7 975 67 374 29497 7648 25 778 8466 69626 16243

44-4 48.6 76.2 ,6., 26.5 41.5

27.9

3! 534 2 544 17220

53-2 52.6 57.8

5'9'3 9849 16850

53-i 64.2 57.6 87.8 40.6

45-7

441 663

55-o

15.1

Standard deviation (km)

Volumeweighted distance* ('000 kpm)

75.0

3832

33-9 38.3 36.7

16219

4780

39-4 47-2 50.0 59-4 28.0

34713 41 466 31 200 21 607 13002 21944 34230 13716 31482 1590 5686 3 768 46 148 10948 124987 8526

45-7

441 663

49-7 41.9 18.3 63.8 24.7 30.8 67.6 47-5 2.1

26.3

Volumeweighted distance* ('000 kpm) 14657 -9638 -3729 368 -14149 — 30225 45767 16495 —14 296 -8452 - 5 250 38144 14653 29849 — 1 224

— 28928 40965 - 1 1 5 138 8324 0

Notes: * 'Volume-weighted distance' is the average distance between upazilas of intermigration multiplied by the annual volume of out- or inmigration as shown in Table A4(a). It is therefore measured in 'kilometreperson-months' (kpm). ** Only one observation. Given the methodology adopted here, the application of tests of statistical significance is of doubtful value. However, for what it is worth, the mean distance covered by migrants into Sylhet Region (87.8 km) is significantly greater than the mean distance covered by migrants into all other regions (5 3.7 km); (analysis of variance: p < 0.01). Tables A5 to A8 simply summarize all reports, irrespective of whether the respondent was reporting in- or out-migrants. 64000. This is by far the largest number of in-migrants into Rajshahi from any non-neighbouring region, and, other than migration into Sylhet, it is one of the largest flows, in either gross or net terms, between non-neighbouring regions anywhere in the country.

284

APPENDIX

Table A6. Migrants' travel arrangements How (Drganized Means of transport (%) Region

(%)

On foot By bus By boat By train

Barisal 63.6 Bogra 16.0 Chittagong 0 . 0 24.1 Comilla I Dhaka 3-3 0.0 Dinajpur Faridpur 26.1 Jamalpur 60.0 21.4 Jessore 30.0 Khulna Kushtia 35.0 Mymensingh 29.0 Noakhali 33-3 37.0 Pabna Patuakhali 0.0 25.8 Rajshahi Rangpur 33-3 22.2 Sylhet 32.4 Tangail

0.0

33-3

43-3 44.4

47.1

0.0

Bangladesh 28.8

12.0

9.1

0.0

18.2

0.0

Other* Singly Groups 18.2

18.2

0.0

0.0

72.0

12.0

0.0

0.0

16.7

50.0

0.0

33-3 10.3

33-3

T3.8 17.8

6.7

0.0

0.0

4-3

30.4

2.9

5-7 4.8

23.8

5i-7 53-3 100.0

8.9

13.8 4.4

0.0

0.0

4-3

4-3

34.8 14.3

17.1

2.9

31.0

19.0

0.0

6.7 10.5

10.0

36.7

10.0

13-3

20.0

0.0

35.0

10.0

81.8 100.0

66.7 86.2

95.6 100.0

95-7

97.1 100.0

93-3 89.5

5.8

4-3

39.1

21.7

0.0

100.0

16.7

0.0

50.0

0.0

0.0

100.0

11.1

7-7 14.3

0.0

40.7

11.1

0.0

57-i

0.0

3-2

12.9 6.7

51.6

42.9 6.5

6.7

10.0

3- 2 0.0

92.3 85.7 96.8 100.0

0.0

11.1

88.9

11.8

8.8

9.1

90.9

36.9

13-3

5.0

95.0

Note: * 'Other' refers mainly to combinations of various forms of transport. DISTANCES COVERED

In order to gain an idea of the approximate distances covered by migrants, respondents were asked to name the upa^ilas, or sub-districts from which in-migrants came and to which out-migrants went. Most were able to do so. There are 501 upa^ilas in Bangladesh, so that information on points of destination and provenance at this level of disaggregation is reasonably fine-tuned. However, it was practicable only to measure the straight-line distances between the geographical centres of each pair of upa^ilas, so that the actual distances covered will almost always be greater than those shown in Table A 5. Even so, these

285

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

Table A7. Modes of payment of seasonal migrants Means of payment

(%)

per time unit

per contract

,1c mp*" N o of Ul lUCau

Region Barisal Bogra Chittagong Comilla

Dhaka Dinajpur Faridpur Jamalpur Jessore Khulna Kushtia Mymensingh Noakhali Pabna Patuakhali Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet Tangail Total

Cash

prov ided (%)

Cropshare Cash Cropshare None One Two Three

53.8

15.4

30.8

0.0

28.6

21.4

63.6

0.0

36.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

7-4 16.7

0.0

0.0

21.2

9.1

14.0

0.0

100.0

70.3

2

0.0

0.0

50.0

18.5 74.1 16.7 66.7 9.1 60.6 2.0 84.0

60.0

-7 8.6

27.0 27.1

4-3

37-5

0.0

50.0

12.5

20.0

0.0

0.0

15.4 23.9

10.3

26.9

0.0

0.0

5-7

0.0

3.8 69.2 5-7 88.6

8.9

9.1

29.7

25.0 16.2

8.1

44.1

4-5 5-9

25.0

14.3

3.6

24.0

12.0

12.0

47.1 52.0

46.2

28.2

73-9 5 5-4

2.2

45-9 57- 1 55.8

10.7

80.0

4-5 81.8 2.9

5-3

34-7

4.2

9.6

0.0

13-7

76.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

37-5

12.5

0.0

50.0

15.2

15.2

6.1

15.6

3- 1

80.0

0.0

20.0

0.0

50.0

0.0

34.1 53.8

24.4

22.0

19.5

6.3 15.6 62.5

0.0

46.2

0.0

15.6 29.3

9.8

12.2

20.0

20.0

30.0

30.0

55.6

0.0

11.1

33-3

72.1

2

-3

23-3

*-3

13.2

2.6

2.6

81.6

57.8

10.5

26.2

5-4

18.9

4.1

8.1

68.9

100.0

63.6

6.3 75.0 12.5

37-5

48.8

Note: Totals may not always sum exactly to 100 because of rounding. distances, averaging more than 100 km for the round trip, are reasonably large. Note again the special positions of Sylhet and Noakhali Regions with respect to 'scatter' of in- and out-migration patterns respectively. It is also useful to weight the information on distances travelled according to the volume of migratory flows. This is done in Table A5. When the two factors are combined in this way, the special position of Sylhet Region is emphasized still further, for it obviously scores highly on both counts. Its weighted figure is more than a quarter of the

286

APPENDIX

national total and nearly four times that of the next highest area of net in-migration. The fact that the weighted average for net inflows into Khulna is relatively small (only around seven per cent of the corresponding figure for Sylhet) reflects in large measure the fact that it draws most of its migrants from within the region or from neighbouring ones. Finally, information on the method of transport and on whether the migrants travel singly or in groups is given in Table A6. It is apparently becomingly increasingly common in Bangladesh for labour contractors to supply labour in the form of work crews which are taken from place to place in response to differences in the timing of labour demand (Clay 1976), a fact which is clearly reflected in the reports that the overwhelming majority of migrants within and between all regions clearly travel in groups. (This multi-stopover migration pattern is another factor which, in a study of this type, makes for underestimation of distances travelled by migrants.) The mode of travel is interesting, and important if transaction costs are to be calculated. The fact that the single most important means of transport is the railway is explained by the fact that in Bangladesh many people ride free-ofcharge, if illegally, on the roofs of trains. (Riding on the roof of a bus, while cheaper than full fare, requires at least a tip to the crew.) It is important to capture facts like this in any migrant labour study, for ignorance of them could lead to possibly serious over-estimation of transaction costs. WAGE RATES AND MODES OF PAYMENT

There are two basic methods of payment of casual labourers in Bangladesh (as elsewhere): cash and a share of the crop. Usually it is one or the other, but sometimes a combination is used. This payment may be made either on a time basis — monthly, weekly, but most usually daily - or on the basis of a contract, i.e. piecework. In addition, one, two or three meals are usually provided to workers; lodging may or may not be provided, as may certain 'perks' such as tobacco or betel. Even taking only wages and meals into account gives forty eight different combinations of modes of payment. The percentage distribution of the basic (i.e. non-combined) forms of payment is categorized by region in Table A7. It is important to note, however, that these figures record the number of times a particular form of payment was mentioned by respondent: it has not been possible to weight these reports by the number of migrants paid

287

THE CASE STUDY FINDINGS

Table A8. Wage payments to migrants (taka/day)

Cash wage

Value of meals

Total payment

Region

Mean

SD

Mean

Mean

Barisal (1) Bogra (3) Chittagong (3) Comilla (11) Dhaka (7) Jamalpur (;) Jessore (6) Khulna (1) Kushtia (2) Mymensingh (7) Noakhali (1) Pabna (3) Patuakhali (1) Rajshahi (2) Rangpur (2)

12.00 14.00 40.33 21.18 21.00 26.80 12.17 10.00 19.00 20.71 18.00

'•73 10.79

8.34

10.00 10.00 9.00 7.18

9.17 10.33

10.00

Meals as percentage c t. n r f l l

8.57

4.58

9.83

1.41

10.00 9.00

6.;o

8.;8

15.28

Tangail (5)

*3-33 20.00 24.00 15.00 16.60

6.39

4.00 10.00 6.00 5.00 8.00 10.00

Total (60)

20.40

9.42

8.6;

8.49 0.00

SD

*-77 4-45 4.09 2.69 5.00 2.08

SD

Min.

Max.

29-57 36.80

'•73 12.50 5.08 5.91 10.33

22.00

4-43

22.00 35.00 22.00 23.00 30.00 15.00

25.00 58.00 40.00 40.00 55.00 28.00

7.67

26.00 20.00

30.00 38.00

22.00 24.00 49-33 28.36

45-45

2O.OO

3-77 2.64

28.00 29.29

2.83

22.OO 33-33

15.28

20.00

50.00

1.41 2.83

3.11

26.00 29.00 23.00 26.60

6.39

28.00 21.00 22.00

30.00 25.00 35.00

3-47

29.0;

8.81

15.00

58.00

3-'3 3.96 4-39

wage 41.67 18.24 25.32 28.98 27.17

44.68 50.00 32.14 29.29 18.18 30.00 23.08 17.24 34.78 37-59 29.78

(Numbers of observations are shown in parentheses.) by a particular means. As in so many cases there is very great interregional variation, but the general pattern is that payment by time is reported more than twice as often as payment by piece rates, and that payment by cash is mentioned more than five times as often as payment by crop share. In the case of meals the distribution clearly tends towards the 'all or nothing' extremes. It would be impracticable to try to document all of the possible combinations of methods of payment, but one known relationship, apparently reflected in these figures, is that between piece rate payments and the provision of meals. 'Payment by contract' in this context generally means that a labour contractor guarantees to supply a certain quantity of labour to perform a particular operation on a particular area of crops. Typically the work gangs these contractors supply are large, and this would make it impracticable for the household to provide meals. On the other hand, when the contract is between an individual labourer and a farmer the farm household usually supplies full food and lodging as well as pay. Hence the clustering around the 'no meals' and the 'three meals a day' categories. It is no coincidence that the total proportion of time-based contracts (68.3 per cent) is virtually the same

288 APPENDIX as that for the ' three meals a day' category (68.9 per cent). Note too that Sylhet has the highest proportion under payment by contracts and the highest proportion under the 'no meals' category. Variation in mode of payment is compounded by variation in the rate of pay under any one mode (Table A8). Rates under 'contract' modes are the most difficult to establish because the bargaining is on the basis of individual farms, or even fields. The level of crop share reportedly paid varied from one to five per cent, but the number of possible causes of such variation is so large, and the number of cases in which the actual level was reported so few (five), that it would be unwise to attempt to generalize. In the case of the most widely-reported form of payment, daily cash rates, it is possible to delve rather more deeply. However, it must be said that, given the relatively small number of responses, the figures in Table A8 again show a good deal of inter- and even intra-regional variation, so that it is probably wise not to try to read too much into apparent regional differences. At the aggregate level, however, some interesting points and patterns do seem to emerge. The first, most obvious and least equivocal is the very low level of wage rates that prevail. At the time of the case study the exchange rate was in the region of 24 taka per US dollar, so that total daily payment levels averaged only about $1.20 and ranged from $2.40 down to a mere 65 cents or so. These figures can be seen in perspective if they are compared with some others for Bangladesh at the same point in time. Estimated per capita national income was then $160 per annum (Asian Development Bank 1988, p. 128), and mean household size 5.7 persons (Bangladesh Government 1987, Table 12.1 and Bangladesh Government 1988, Table 2.5). Thus mean household income averaged $912 per annum, or $2.50 a day. Even the highest reported total payment to a migrant was less than this. The second point is that because a few relatively high figures inflate the mean, most seasonal migrants earn below this figure. The final point concerns the proportion of the total wage that is provided in the form of meals, which is disturbingly high. If the overall average figure of about 30 per cent were to apply throughout the year, it would imply that each migrant wage earner could support only two other adult-equivalents, assuming even that 90 per cent of the household's earnings were spent on food. Of course a male adult labourer (which is what the great majority of the migrants are) during the peak season has the highest calorie requirement of any member of the family at any time of year. But against this must be set several other

CONCLUSIONS 289 factors. First, given an average family size of 5.7, the average dependency ratio is almost certainly higher than two adult-equivalents to one. Second, the figures in the Table represent peak season earnings, so that the 70 per cent of the wage-earner's income that is left after his or her own peak season consumption has to help support the entire family during the slack season as well as its non-earning members during the peak. Finally, the figures must be viewed in the context of Lipton's definition of the 'ultra-poor' quoted in Chapter 3, namely those whose food intake provides less than eighty per cent of recommended energy requirements, despite their spending eighty per cent of their income on food. Judging from the figures in Table A8, it would certainly appear that migrant labourers in Bangladesh are to be classed among the ultra-poor. •

Conclusions

A methodology such as the one employed here could never seek to capture the full complexity of migration flows in a country like Bangladesh. An impression of this complexity can perhaps best be conveyed by a descriptive account of seasonal migration into Sylhet, a region whose name has figured prominently in this appendix. This description will also illustrate the degree to which the benefits deriving from such flows can be creamed off by those with sufficient knowledge, contacts and capital to take advantage of them. Before the beginning of the boro season farmers from Sylhet traditionally visit southern Dhaka Region to obtain loans from local merchants (both Dhaka and Sylhet, it should be said, contain areas that border on the Meghna river complex). In addition to loans, the merchants also arrange to supply labour for the boro harvest. When this time draws near, the merchants collect labour gangs and provide them with loans with which to support their families during their absence. The merchants also provide river boats to transport the labourers (increasingly these craft are engine-powered, but they were traditionally hauled upstream by the labourers themselves). These boats do not go directly to Sylhet, but first travel up the Meghna to its confluence with the Ganges and then up this river to ports in northern Faridpur Region, where fresh vegetables are relatively cheap and abundant at that time of year. The merchants fill the boats with this produce and then travel to Sylhet. On reaching their destination, the labourers proceed to harvest the boro crop while the merchant travels around selling his vegetables, using the proceeds to buy rice which, given Sylhet's

29O

APPENDIX

unusual crop calendar, is cheaper than elsewhere at this time of year. Both the labourers' wages and the merchant's loan repayments (with interest) are paid in rice, and at the end of the season this is transported in the boats back to southern Dhaka Region. The labourers then hand over part of their crop share as loan repayments and in transport charges for both themselves and their rice. The merchant stores his share of the rice until prices peak, when he sells it. Part of the income will finance the next year's instalment of loans to Sylheti farmers, thus completing the cycle. Complex patterns of the type just described could only be adequately captured and quantified by detailed and intensive on-the-spot investigation. What the present case study has done is to indicate in general terms the importance of Sylhet Region as a destination for seasonal migrants. Subsequent rigorous investigation based on this identification would both identify the migration pattern just described and quantify the various flows involved. As indicated earlier, where it has been possible to check the case study findings against other information sources, the former have held up very well indeed. The implications for future research should be fairly obvious to researchers familiar with Bangladeshi agriculture. However, the purpose of the exercise here was not to identify seasonal migration patterns in Bangladesh so much as to test a particular methodology. How well this approach would work in other countries remains to be seen, but on the face of it there seems no reason why it should not. Almost all developing countries have either an agricultural university (or universities) or at least a faculty of agriculture. It may be that the poorer parts of the country are under-represented in such institutions, so that out-migration patterns from there will be underrepresented. However, as indicated above, reports on in-migration by respondents from wealthier areas will tend to compensate for this. (Assuming, not unreasonably, that net flows will tend to be from the poorer to the wealthier parts of the country.) With the benefit of hindsight, there are several ways in which the methodology could have been improved. One would be to stratify the sample by region, so that the representation from each was proportionate to some relevant variable such as population or cultivated area. However, the use of administrative regions as a basic classifying factor is not particularly satisfactory, as these generally bear little or no relation to agricultural, economic or ecological zones. If the panel of respondents were drawn from areas stratified, say into zones of similar cropping pattern, the classification would be much more meaningful

CONCLUSIONS

291

than the one adopted here. Against this, however, each new level of sophistication added means a corresponding increase in time requirements and a consequent departure from the goal of rapid appraisal. One possible alternative to using university students would be to use agricultural extension agents as the panel of key informants. An advantage of this approach would be that the latter would be likely to have the more up-to-date information. Against this, these are obviously a much more scattered body of individuals, so that not only would time requirements for data collection increase, but, more seriously, it would not be possible to provide the personal contact needed to explain precisely what was needed. Nor would it be possible to take advantage of the very special student-teacher relationship mentioned earlier. Moreover, the agricultural extension agent in developing countries tends, unfortunately, often to be regarded as a general dogsbody to be loaded down with any odd task that needs to be done. This dogsbody's enthusiasm for yet another task is unlikely to be overwhelming. Nevertheless, circumstances in a particular country at a particular time will dictate what adaptations are desirable to the methodology used here. One of the areas in which the present methodology was least successful was in attempting to capture the dynamics of migratory flows. Some attempt was made to discover whether the reported flows were new or traditional, but few respondents were able to answer, and no clear picture emerged from their replies. It was argued in Chapter 8 that one of the reasons that the seasonality issue is so important today is that the economic situation in the rural areas of developing countries is often one of rapid change. Against a background of relentless population expansion and growing resource depletion, a sometimes rapid rate of technological innovation is taking place. As new technologies develop and old ones wither away, the seasonal and geographical distribution of labour surpluses and deficits will continue to change in response. At the same time that the economic rationale for traditional flows is being undermined, the potential for the development of new ones may simultaneously be in process of creation. This is one more pressing reason why further, fine-tuned, research into seasonal labour migration is a matter of pressing urgency. In order to capture this dynamic element of seasonal labour demand and supply, information deriving from a study such as the one outlined here should be used in conjunction with indicators of change. In the case of population pressures, census data can reasonably be used to identify areas of unusual population growth; in the case of resource

292

APPENDIX

depletion, in most countries studies are available on deforestation, soil erosion, flooding, and so on. In the case of technological change, the indicators include statistics on the development of irrigation, farm mechanization, the adoption of new crops, cropping patterns and agricultural inputs.

Notes

•

Chapter i 1 The volumes just cited were based on multidisciplinary conferences which drew contributions from such fields as agronomy, agricultural economics, anthropology, climatology, demography, geography, medicine, nutrition and sociology. 2 This is not to say that the achievements were made without cost to the rural poor. The Enclosure Movement, which was accelerated by the Agricultural Revolution in eighteenth century England, reduced seasonality of livestock production for 'progressive farmers', while reducing the income of landless labourers through removal of their traditional right of access to common land. Even farmers who did not benefit from the enclosures had to pay a share of the administrative and legal costs, often having to sell part of their holdings to do so (Yelling 1977, Turner 1980). However, these developments occurred in the now-distant past and are no longer of any great policy interest. 3 The pattern and absolute levels of seasonal income variation are shown here as being the same in both developed and developing countries. Of course in practice the patterns will be different. They are shown as being the same here in order to separate out the effect of the mean from that of the variance and show that the average level of income, in addition to its seasonal variation, determines how closely consumption will approach to the critical minimum. 4 The number of factors has been kept to three for the sake of simplicity: others could be added to increase the realism of the model, but it would also increase its complexity without adding to its usefulness. 5 In the cases of pastoral nomads and nomadic hunter-gatherers, the ' village' may have to be thought of in social, rather than geographical terms, but this does not prevent the growth of dependency relationships.

•

Chapter 2 1 It will be seen that the sum of the angle of inclination of the earth and the latitude of the Tropics (66^-J- 2.35) is exactly 90 degrees. The reasons should be apparent from Figure 2.1. 2 The dividing line between a 'wet' and a 'dry' month is bound to be somewhat

293

294

3

4

5

6

7

•

NOTES TO PP. 3 5 - 4 7

arbitrary. It can be defined in terms of potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is basically the amount of water a crop needs. However PET is very difficult to measure. Nieuwolt (1977) uses as his dividing line the monthly rainfall average of 60 mm favoured by pioneering writers on the subject, but later researchers have argued that in the tropics significant net water loss could occur even at rainfall levels substantially higher than this, and that four inches (102 mm) was a more realistic figure (Walsh 1981). The word demand is usually associated with marketed goods and services. In this instance it is used in the wider sense to include demand within the non-monetary economy as well. Here payment may be in kind, or consumption may even be subsistence. Either way the basic principles are the same. The main exemptions are for those who are sick and those travelling long distances, in other words people who would not be available for agricultural work in any case. For non-Islamic readers, publications of the Islamic Foundation such as Ahmad (1977), Ahsan (1976), Irving et al. (1979), and McDermott and Ahsan (1980), provide invaluable insights into the principles and practices of this faith. Some understanding of the complexities of Hindu worship, at least as seen through western eyes, can be gained from Danielou (1964), Thomas (1975) and Walker (1968). Islamic tradition here differs from that of Judaism and Christianity, both of which follow the Genesis version of the story which names Isaac rather than Ishmael as Abraham's intended sacrificial victim. The price of slaughter stock rises greatly at festival times, partly due to increased demand, but largely due to the unusually high quality of beasts on offer. The present author has seen top quality bulls being sold for the equivalent of US$2500 to USS3000 at Id al-Adha in Bangladesh, a Muslim country in which the normal price of cattle for slaughter was the equivalent of US$5 5-6;. Chapter 3

1 'Intra-family' is here preferred to the more familiar phrase 'intra-household'. Households in developing countries not infrequently include resident non-family members such as domestic servants and other permanent workers who would not normally expect the same access to family resources that family members enjoy. If this latter group is disadvantaged, and they probably are, it is because they are ultrapoor. 2 The present author has often come across cases in Bangladesh of poor women employed on the very arduous rainy season task of decorticating jute. For this they received as payment only one half of the central, non-fibrous stalks produced as a by-product of jute fibre. These are used as fuel, but they make a very poor one, having roughly the same density as balsa wood. It is a measure of the desperate level of rainy season fuel shortages that people are prepared to labour for such apparently negligible rewards. 3 In writing on health and nutritional aspects here, the author greatly benefited from comments on an earlier draft by Dr Mark Lawrence of the Institute of Physiology, University of Glasgow. 4 Chapter 14 of Lowenberg et al. (1974) provides many examples of this type of cultural problem. 5 This paper, together with McGregor et al. (1970), summarizes the findings of many reports on the study.

NOTES TO P P . 4 9 — 7 4

295

6 Longhurst and Payne have expressed reservations as to the validity of such studies, arguing that the interpretation of such data is doubtful 'because of the difficulty of measuring food consumption with sufficient accuracy' (1981, p. 45). 7 The complicating effect of pregnancy and lactation on seasonal weight loss is reflected in greater variation in the figures for women than for men. (Just as properly nourished women should gain weight during pregnancy, they should lose it during lactation as laid down fat deposits are used up.) The standard deviations in the Billewicz and McGregor study reported here were 2.5 kg for men and 3.7kg for women (1982, p. 314). 8 If energy intake is insufficient the body will use any protein intake as an energy source, instead of using it as a raw material in the construction of tissues. Thus inadequacy in energy and protein intake cannot be treated separately, a factor which has given rise to the expression protein—energy malnutrition. Marasmus is extreme emaciation, a wasting which results from gross PEM in infancy. Kwashiorkor is another severe form of PEM, but the lack of flesh is disguised by retained fluid in the skin and stomach (contributing to the familiar pot-bellied appearance of severely malnourished children). 9 For example, in the area of Papua New Guinea discussed earlier, coitus is prohibited during the season in which the mixed gardens are prepared (Crittenden and Baines 1986). 10 The traditional method of measurement involves weighing the baby before and after each feed. Anyone who has tried to weigh a hungry baby will realize how difficult it is to get an accurate pre-feed reading. This problem is greatly exacerbated by the fact that in developing countries mothers often provide many small feeds, so that the weight change is small and the number of weighings required is large - as are consequent logistic problems in getting the mothers to the weighing point. Newer, more accurate, methods of measurement have now been developed, but results are not available at time of writing. 11 Inattention to women's special health needs is by no means the prerogative of the illiterate rural populations of developing countries. For example, male physicians who adopt a dismissive attitude towards 'women's troubles' are not exactly an endangered species in the developed world. 12 It must be noted that this is so because pastoralism is found only in arid and semiarid areas. In very wet parts of the world the wet season may be the time of poorest grazing, because the pastures are under water. 13 Unfortunately no further details were reported for the Herero group, so it is unclear why seasonal variation in weight loss is so slight. Possibly it is because they have been able to take advantage of complementarities between the pastoral and agricultural components of their farming systems. Wilmsen does report that the Herero have surplus milk to dispose of in the wet season, which is normally the hungry season for farmers. 14 Technically speaking excess intake of one or more nutrients is also a form of malnutrition, but in the present discussion use of the term will be restricted to the more serious side of the question. Similarly, use of the term 'undernourished' should not be taken to include those on slimming diets. 1; Some writers have argued, indeed, that the distinction is not worth making, as a diet that is deficient in energy is just as unbalanced as one that is deficient in, say, essential minerals or vitamins, so that energy deficiency is also a form of malnutrition. However, such authors have not concerned themselves with the seasonality aspect of the problem.

296

N O T E S TO P P .

74-IO9

16 One study which does not ignore this aspect is that by Berhan (1982), which examined intake of calories, protein, calcium, iron, vitamin A, thiamin, riboflavin, niacin and ascorbic acid in Ethiopia in two seasons, which he calls the ' hungry' and ' harvest' seasons respectively. As might be expected all (except iron in one study) showed marked improvement in the latter season. 17 There is an important exception to the above generalization about the expensiveness of highly nutritious foods, namely free distribution of such food among the poor as part of a rich person's religious or customary responsibilities. The most widespread example is the Islamic injunction that one third of the meat from animals slaughtered at the festival of Id al-Adha must be distributed among the poor. Similar traditions exist among other cultures, at particular festivals such as weddings or naming festivals. However, the existence of such isolated supplies is unlikely to make a major difference to the nutritional status of recipients, unless they happen to fall during the hungry season - as sometimes happens in the case of Islamic festivals. 18 It also helps if they have a reasonably good working knowledge both of the nutritional properties of each food, and of their own nutritional requirements. 19 Indeed increased availability of the starchy staple may lead to increased demand (from the relatively well-off) for complementary foods, and unless the harvest of these coincides with the main harvest, availability will drop and prices increase accordingly. •

Chapter 4

1 The acidity of a soil is measured by its pH value. Acid soils have pH values between o and 7, the lower the value the greater the acidity; pH values above 7 indicate increasing alkalinity up to a maximum of 14. Crops will not grow on soils at either extreme of this range. 2 There is an important distinction between the growth of an organism and its development. 'Development' refers to a discrete occurrence in the life cycle, like seed germination or flowering in plants, or puberty in animals. 'Growth' is any increase in the organism's size between such stages. 3 This is subject to differences in varietal characteristics, which are examined later. 4 Only the figures for crude protein intake are depicted in Figure 4.5, but other nutrients like phosphorous showed a similar picture of seasonal variation in the experiments. 5 The coefficients of variation for monthly production, computed by the present author from data in Swift (1981) (Figures 3.3 to 3.5) were as follows: goat milk, 70.2 per cent; camel milk, 53.7 per cent; cow milk, 35.4 per cent.

•

Chapter 5 1 This is in complete contrast to the situation where seasonality is demand-induced. Here storage or processing of the product against the time of peak demand will enable production levels to be kept steady throughout the year, thus eliminating the problem of seasonally excess capacity (other than in storage facilities themselves). 2 Since the supply of factors of production is limited, the cost of using them to produce one thing is the sacrifice of something else that these resources could otherwise have been used to produce. This sacrifice is opportunity-cost. Since no cash

N O T E S TO P P . I I 2 - 6 l

297

values need be implied, it is a particularly useful concept in analysing the economics of subsistence agriculture. 3 Average farm size in the study sample was small - under one hectare. 4 In few areas would it be physically impossible to irrigate. For example, wheat is presently grown under irrigation even in Saudi Arabia, but the cost of pumping the water from aquifers vast distances beneath the desert is many times greater than the value of the entire crop. Such agriculture survives only because of subsidies totalling US$ two billion a year and procurement prices well above world market levels (Parker 1989). 5 This information is based on personal communication from the staff of several voluntary agencies operating in the areas concerned. •

Chapter 6 1 These opposing views are well reviewed by a number of contributors to Standing (1985b); see especially the papers by Chapman, Swindell, Thadani and Roberts. 2 In any case, if the landless were to migrate permanently in significant numbers this would be reflected in low levels of landlessness in the source villages, which would in turn explain their low proportion in seasonal flows from those villages! 3 It is assumed here that the household (possibly, as personified in the household head), rather than the individual family member, is the relevant decision-making unit. The evidence cited earlier certainly points in this direction. 4 At the other extreme from these unfortunates are those rural residents who are relatively well-off and who therefore do not need to migrate seasonally in search of work. Hence the relationship between level of family income (as the independent variable) and the incidence of migration is likely to be non-linear. 5 The Crooks and Ranbanda paper was, of course, written before serious intercommunal violence flared up in the island. 6 Many migration studies support this view, for example Crooks and Ranbanda (1981), Rempel (1981), Stichter (1985), and many of the papers in Standing (1985b).

•

Chapter 7 1 To say this is not meant in any way to disparage the role of subsistence production or the contribution it can make to countering the ill-effects of seasonality. It will be argued in the final chapter that this has a vital role to play. 2 In the early days of the so-called green revolution several studies (for example, Falcon 1970 and Evenson 1974) showed that, while small farmers faced rapidly falling prices as local storage, processing and transportation facilities became swamped with grain, traders and larger farmers with the necessary linkages into the modern sector were able to bypass local facilities and ship cheap grain to the cities where they benefited from high levels of support price as well as cheap credit. 3 Der holierte Staat in Be^iehung aujL.andn>irtscbaft ('The Isolated State in Relation to Agriculture') was originally published in Rostock in 1826. An expanded third edition was published in Berlin in 187;. The present description is, of course, highly condensed and simplified; for an English translation of the original see Hall (1966). For subsequent refinements and extensions, see Jonasson (1925), Grotenwald (1959), Sinclair (1967), Tarrant (1974), Belding (1981), Hugget and Meyer (1983) and Mather (1986). 4 The exact number of years is not stated in the US case; in the case of Nepal the

298

NOTES

TO PP.

165-88

figures are six-year averages, from 1982/83 to 1987/88. The Nepalese figures are given in terms of the local calendar, whose months run from mid-month to midmonth in the Western equivalent. This is why the two sets of figures do not exactly coincide on the horizontal scale of the figure. 5 For a scathing attack on 'cheap' credit policies - as well as a great deal of useful information on the subject of institutional credit in developing countries - see Adams el al. (1984). 6 The cost of such developments, in terms of environmental damage, will be discussed in the next chapter. +

Chapter 8

1 A useful, if brief, review of such findings is given in Simmonds (1986). 2 Both Muslim and Hindu custom is to subdivide the property, the Quran, for example, stipulating that sons should inherit equal shares, and daughters half as much. Fragmentation is therefore almost inevitable where such a system is followed. 3 A study by the present author produced the following figures for traditional methods (man-days per hectare): reaping, 20—2;; threshing, 12—24; winnowing 4—5 (Gill 1977, Chapter 9). The figures for the combine harvester are from the Chilalo Agricultural Development Unit; they do not include travelling time. 4 It is assumed that slack season labour requirements would not expand to the point at which the going wage rate increased. If it did increase, the level of production might fall until a new equilibrium at a lower slack season wage rate was established. A similar adjustment would occur if the increase in supply of the product was sufficient significantly to reduce its market price. ; The extent to which family labour supplies the new slack season labour requirements will depend upon leisure preference within the farm family. If leisure is preferred to additional income - as is generally the case with the larger farmers casual labour may well be used to supply the new slack season need. However, this will only mitigate the effect of smaller, poorer farmers effectively substituting slack season family labour for peak season casual labour. 6 Reservations concerning certain modern varieties — especially those at the heart of the 'green revolution'-tend to concentrate on the fact that to be effective they have to form part of a technological 'package', which includes 'lumpy' investment in irrigation and fairly heavy outlays of working capital for purchased inputs. Hence the whole 'package' is not indivisible and may be beyond the means of the small farmer. 7 A good review of the evidence in the South Asian context is contained in Binswanger (1978) and the results of an empirical investigation in a densely populated country in Gill (1981). The studies by Southworth (1972), Southworth and Barnett (1974) and Farrington et al. (1984) show how the argument has developed over the years, again in an Asian context. 8 The other uses to which tractors and other draught power sources can be put are discussed later. 9 Unfortunately this has not, as far as the author is aware, been documented. The account presented here rests on personal communications the present author had with farmers and development workers in the area concerned. It is, nonetheless, perfectly consistent with the numerical estimates of the labour displacement effect of combines presented earlier.

NOTES TO P P . 1 8 9 — 2 3 4

299

10 It is sometimes argued that job creation in such industries will absorb labour displaced from agriculture, but in practice the labour requirements of this sector are very small in relation to the level of labour displacement that widespread mechanization can cause. 11 This is not to say that this particular project was unsuccessful: the simulations show that farmers, casual labourers and landlords were all better off than they would have been in the absence of the project. 12 Quoted by Biggs and Clay (1981) from an article entitled 'IR8 and Beyond', IRRI Reporter, no. 2, (1972). 13 In francophone Africa, however, there was much greater emphasis on selection and breeding from the local genetic pool (Toulmin 1984, p. 20). 14 At the time of writing (the end of 1989) the CG1AR was considering extending its support to cover a much wider mandate, and the TAC Secretariat produced an interim report on the CG's possible expansion (CGIAR 1989). Although seasonality problems are not a specific concern of this report, many of the areas it reviews particularly new commodity areas like forestry and fisheries, the sharpened focus on questions of sustainability and fragile environments, the recognition of the role of subsistence crops and a focus on poverty issues - have strong relevance to the subject. 15 For a description of developments in agricultural research in Latin America, see Pieiro and Trigo (1985) and CIMMYT (1985). A more general review of the NARCs' performance is to be found in Breth (1986) and Trigo (1986). 16 This paper summarizes the findings of a wide-ranging review of the effectiveness of collaboration between NARCs and the CG-Supported lARCs. •

Chapter 9 1 In the words of the Director of the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, even by the second half of the 1980s 'the resource poor farmer (had been) largely ignored by conventional research' (writing in the Foreword of IITA's 1988 Annual Report). 2 A recent study specifically on gender issues in Third World agricultural research addresses this question in detail, showing among other things how seasonal differences in on-farm workloads affect boys, girls, men and women (alphabetical order) very differently (Feldstein et al. 1989). Ferguson and Horn (1985) and Rockefeller Foundation/ISNAR (198;) provide critiques specifically from the viewpoint of the inclusion of women's work in farming systems research. 3 This has on occasion been done, even when the purpose of a piece of research is to study seasonality problems. For example, Bayliss-Smith, when discussing labour requirements for various tasks, writes: ' The data have been converted from hours to days by adopting as a unit a seven-hour working day' (1981, p. 34). The length of the working day itself, however, varies seasonally. 4 Naturally, reality is more complex, for this description is only an incomplete and greatly over-simplified transect through an interconnected, hierarchical and branching network of systems and subsystems. For a more detailed discussion of the concept of hierarchy in 'systems' research, see Conway 1986, Chapter 2. 5 This last point demonstrates that one possible solution to the problem of not being customer-driven, namely privatization, is not viable. Although private sector R&E has had some Third World success, this has been only where the company could recoup its costs through monopoly sales or purchases. The system can work well

300

6

7

8 9

10 11

•

NOTES TO P P .

239-78

with processed, especially industrial, cash crops, but not with basic foodstuffs, and most especially not with subsistence crops. Most R&E must therefore remain in the public sector. See especially Fukuoka (1978, 1985) and Mollison (1988); both authors have extensive practical experience of making such systems work in subtropical areas, of Japan and Australia respectively. The argument here is couched in terms of individual ownership, or at least control, of land. However, the same basic principles apply to land that is farmed under some form of communal, or community-based, system of control. On the whole, however, the history of officially-organized group farming in the Third World or in the Second World for that matter - has not exactly been a shining success story. Community-initiated collaborative efforts, on the other hand - in such shapes as labour- and draught animal exchange groups — have a long and successful history. Chambers and Maxwell (1981) discuss these aspects of public works schemes at somewhat greater length. Many examples of such groups are springing up in the Third World today. For some especially interesting cases, see Malhotra and PofFenberger (1989). These particular examples happen to cover forest user groups, but the same principles apply across a wide spectrum of community activities. I am grateful to Dr Mahesh Bharati, Co-ordinator, National Grain Legumes Improvement Programme, National Agricultural Research and Services Centre (Nepal), for this information. See, for example, many of the papers and sections in Chambers et al. (1981), Jiggins (1982a), Longhurst (1986a).

Appendix

1 These are shown as a single crop in the diagram because the areas are not disaggregated in available official estimates. 2 These percentages refer only to reports of the type of work done; it has not been possible to weight the responses by the number of days spent working on particular tasks. 3 Throughout this Appendix the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) will be recorded as a Region of ' no data', since there was only one respondent. 4 As in the case of Figure A4, these percentages refer only to reports of the type of work done; it has not been possible to weight the responses by the number of days spent working on particular tasks. j Modern varieties grown in the aus season - around fifteen per cent of total area are normally transplanted. 6 In any case, this method of arriving at regional estimates will affect only the vertical scale of the histograms in a figure such as this, not the relative size of the bars within them. Hence the intra-regional picture with regard to the monthly distribution of in- and out-migration is not affected by the use of such a scaling factor. 7 This approach implicitly assumes that number of migrants is not a function of the distance covered. Intuitively one might feel that there is a negative relationship, in which case the figures for non-neighbouring districts presented here will be overestimates. However, as a later example will show, it is known that in Bangladesh large labour gangs migrate quite long distances, and if this is the norm the figures in question will be underestimates.

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Index

Acacia albeda, see Faidherbia albeda

accelerated growth, 101 accessibility, 81 Accra (Ghana), Figure 2.2 adaptability, 76 administrative factors, 39—40, 168, 190, M7 adulteration, 249 Africa agricultural research performance, 212—13

cropped area, 122 environmental diversity, 212 francophone, 299 (n.13) Great Rift Valley, 85 guinea worm, 48 irrigation development, 122, Table 5-2 labour peaks, 184 monsoon systems, 33 seasonal labour migration, 134, 136 seasonal nutrition studies, 49 soil hardening, 125 special problems, 212 see also individual countries agricultural banks, 166 agricultural extension advice, 182 Africa, 212 agents, 5, 222, 223 anti-female bias, 222 in developed countries, n o

linkages with research, see agricultural research-extension networks two-way flow, 237 agricultural labourers, see landless labourers agricultural location, see von Thiinen agricultural machinery suppliers, 181, ! 95 agricultural mechanization as labour-augmenting technology, 125 as sequential process, 178, 188—90, 193, 242

effect on gender typing, 66 effect on varietal diversity, 238 labour displacement effect, 17, 24, 178-96 passim, 216, 241, 242-5 passim

selective, 179-83, 189, 191 agricultural policy, see government intervention, government policy agricultural research adaptive/applied, 198 as technological change, 178-96 passim bias towards favoured areas, 212 bias towards yields, 21, i n , 198—201 passim

collaborative, 198 commodity orientation, 203, 221 counter-seasonal effects, 127-9 developed countries, n o duplication, 211

316

INDEX expenditure, 210, 233-4 fundamental, 198 gender issues, 222, 299 (n.2) IARC-NARC collaboration, 211-13 international centres (IARCS), i n , 198, 199-213 passim, Table 8.2; see also individual centres linkages with extension, see agricultural research-extension networks livestock, 205-6 national centres (NARCs), i n , 198, 211—13, 224, 299 ( n . 1 5 , n . 1 6 )

non-commodity areas, 209 reward structures, 236—7 agricultural research-extension networks, 217, 222, 223, 233-9, 247, 248, 299 (n.;) Agricultural Revolution, 2, 109, 293 (ch.i, n.2) agro-chemicals, n o , 119, 194, 238, 239 see also fertilizer agro-ecological factors/zones, 157, 220, 226, 227, 230, 241, 243, 245, 249, 250 agronomic practices, 204 aid, see donor agencies Alice Springs (Australia), Figure 2.2 'all-weather' transport, 160 allocation of family labour, 133 time allocation, 230 see also discrimination altitude, effect on cold season, 30 cropping pattern, 94 interaction with other variables, 94, 160 natural vegetation, 85 temperature regime, 83-6, Figure 4.2 timing of disease peaks, 50-1 Amazonica (Brazil), 73 amino acids, bodily storage, 76, 78 composition in protein, 78 deficiencies of vegetable protein, 75, 78 essential, 75 excretion, 78

in structure of protein, 78 lysine, 78 methionine, 78 anaemia, 50 analytical framework, 8-26 Angola, 137 animals, see draught animals, livestock anorexia, 47, 48, 60 anthropology, 5, 70, 231 anti-dumping legislation, 170 anticyclones, 32 appetite loss, see anorexia appropriate technology, 177 see also technological change aquifers, 190 arable crops, 116—17, 12; arbitrage, 152, 161, 289—90 Argentina, 157 arid areas, 98 aridity, effect on parasites, 101 ascorbic acid (vitamin C), 76 Asia agricultural research performance, 212 cultivation, 186 irrigated area, 123, Table 5.2 migrant labour flows, 134 see also individual countries Asian Vegetable Research and Development Center (AVRDC), 209 aspect as environmental variable, 91, 160 farmers' exploitation of, 21 sunward, 91 assets as collateral, 12, 253 disinvestment, 15 distress sales, 17, 216 atmospheric conditions, 92—3 pressure, 32 Australia, i, 33, 300 (Ch.9, n.6) 'awareness building', 247 babassu palm, 116-17, Figure 5.3 ' b a d ' years, 16, 216, 217 balance of payments, 15 5 banana, 94 Bangkok (Thailand), 138

317

INDEX Bangladesh areas under crops, Table Ai discrimination against girls, 64-5 food stocks of rural people, ;4~5> Figure 3.1 impact of modern rice varieties, m - 1 3 , Figure ;.i irrigation, 262-3, 266, 272, Table A2 rainfall, Figures A2, A3 reverse discrimination, 65 seasonal labour migration, 257-92, Figures A4-A8, Tables A3-A8 seasonal peaking of births, 60 seasonal price spreads, 162 banks, 163, 164, 166, 241, 247, 254 see also credit, formal barley early varieties, 107, 108 effect of altitude, 85, 86, Figure 4.3 late varieties, 108 barriers to international trade, 169—70 market entry, 155 basal metabolic rate (BMR), 53 beans effect of altitude, 94 protein composition, 78 varietal diversity, 108 Belem (Brazil), Figure 2.2 beliefs, see customary beliefs Bengal, 163 bias, 4, 140, 178, 220-6, 236 see also 'tarmac bias', etc. bicarbonate loss, 77 bimodal rainfall pattern causes, 35 effect on nutritional stress, ; 1-2 effect on tree species, 210 seasonality differences from unimodal areas, 51 birth, see seasonality of births birth weight, 60 black market, see market blood circulation, 53 boia fria (labourers, Brazil), 148 Bolivia, 166 Bombay, Figure 2.2 Borlaug, Norman E., 198 Borneo, 135, 136, 149

borrowing, see credit Boston standards, 62, Figure 3.4 Botswana Herero, 71-2, 295 (n.13), Figure 3.6 Kalahari San, 70—3, Figures 3.5, 3.6 livestock sector, 205 'bottlenecks', 107, m - 1 3 passim, 120, 124, 179-83 see also labour bottlenecks/constraints brain damage, 79 Brazil babassu palm, 117 boia fria labourers, 148 colonization of Amazonia, 73 highlands, 157 pastures, 206 'breadwinner', 64 breast milk nutritional value, 59 passive immunity, 59, 62 seasonal drop in production, 52, 60 withdrawal, 77 see also women, lactating broadcasting, see sowing buckwheat, 85 Buddhism, 42 budget constraints, 15 5 buffalo, 102, 195 buffer stocks, 163 bullocks, see draught animals bunds, field, 186 bureaucracy, 166, 169, 223, 248 bureaucratic bias, 223—4 Burundi, 93, 210 busy season, 135, 226 see also peak season calcium, 76 calendars, 41 see also cropping calendar, 41 calories, 56, 74, 288, 296 (n.16) calving interval, 101 camels, 102 capacity utilization, 22, 186, 190 capital constraints, 154 costs, 186 -intensive technologies, 182, 190, 191, 224,225; see also technological change

318

INDEX carbohydrates, 52 see also starchy staples carbon dioxide, 37, 92 cash crops, 66, 143, 163, 197 earnings monopolized by men, 66—7, 149 flows, 1, 162, 166—9 cassava as farm enterprise, 167 as hungry season crop, 115 labour requirements, 115 livestock feed, 116 nutritional value, 74 on nutrient-depleted soils, 87 shade tolerance, 126 caste, 164, 181 casual labour, in—13, 179, 183, 195, Figure ;.i see also landless labourers catalytic role of seasonality, 18 cattle, 102-3, ! }6 see also livestock causes of seasonality, 7, 27—43 cellulose, 201 census, see data collection Centro lnternacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), 204, 206, Table 8.2 Centro lnternacional de la Papa (CIP), 204, 205, 211, 236, Table 8.2 Centro lnternacional de Mejoramientio de Mai^j Trigo (C1MMYT), 204, 205, 208, Table 8.2 Centrosema acutifolium, 206 cereal banks, 223, 246—8 cereals, see staples Chad, 122 charity, 45 Cherrapunji (India), 31, Figure 2.2 chickpea, 204, 205 childbearing, 68 children at risk, 60—1, 68, 79 discrimination against, 64—5, 67—8, 217

effects of seasonal migration, 59, 148 employment, 118, 227, 245 first six months, 45, 61, Figure 3.3 nutrition, 74, 2; 5

six months-to-two years, 4;, 59, 60-4, Figures 3.3, 3.4 under-fives, 45, 61, 68, 69, Figure 3.3 China agricultural research, 204, 237 historical counter-seasonal measures, 2

irrigated area, 123, Table 5.2 chlorophyll, 38 choice of technique, 187 see also technological change cholera, 50 Christchurch (New Zealand), Figure 2.2 circular causation, 48 see also ' vicious circle' climate interaction with environment, 80-91 source of seasonality, 27-40 climatic zones, 34 clouds, 31, 32, 39 clover, 110 coffee, 94 collateral, 164, 16;, 253 Colombia, 169, 206 Colombo (Sri Lanka), Figure 2.2 colonial/colonialism, 24, 73, 128, 137, 139, 142, 197 colonization schemes, 73, 128, 194 combine harvesters, i, 129, 178-9, 188, 243, 298 (n.3), 298 (n.9) commercialized agriculture, 222 common lands, 251, 293 (Ch.i, n.2) see also open access resources communications barriers, 169—70, 196 effect on seasonal problems, 52, 174 effect on transaction costs, 1; 3 role in land alienation, 17; role in seasonal migration, 146 role in spreading infectious disease, 5 2 community -based control, 247, 300 (O1.9, n.7, n. 9 ) ties, 143 comparative advantage, 169 compensatory growth, 101 competition, 153, 154, 161, 163, 180, 217, 246, 248 see also monopoly

319

INDEX complementarities, see seasonal complementarities conception, seasonality of, see seasonality of births conflict of interest, 13 5 conspicuous consumption, 42 constraints, see budget constraints, draught power constraint, etc. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) formation, 202 non-supported institutes, 208-11, 299 (n.14) research foci, 210 Secretariat, 202 -supported institutes, 208-11, 299 (n.16), Table 8.2 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), 202 consumer resistance, 169 consumption, 252, Figure 1.2 see also food continental locations, see continentality continentality, 34, 82-3, 8j, 94, 160, Figure 4.1 convection, 31 co-operatives, 247, 248 cool season crops, 204 see also winter crops coping mechanisms, 104-31, 226, 244, see also counter-seasonal measures Coptic Christianity, 41 Coromandel coast (India), 34 corruption, 223 cost—benefit analysis, 144 cost-effectiveness, 219 cost of seasonality exacerbating poverty, 10—12, 21, 51, 214

opportunity cost (q.v.) production cost, 1, 17, 267 seasonal migration, 144 social, 143, 145, 148-50 storage, 51, 104—6, 164 transaction costs, 143, 145-6 transportation costs, 160-1, 284-6 passim cotton, 120, Figure 5.2

counter-seasonal measures access to resources, 129-30 cereal banks (q.v.) cassava, 115 crop diversification, 115, 205, 253 'economic' strategies, 130—1 developed countries, 6, 104, 120, 127-9, 2 I 4 effect of resource depletion, 173-8 historical evidence, 1-2, 107-8, Table 5-i

irrigation (q.v.) labour-augmenting technologies, 183-8 links with sustainability, 252 market orientation, 66, 151-72 passim mixed farming, 103 new developments, 125, 112—13 passim, 18 3-7 passim, 202-5 passim, 206-8 passim organizational, 129 patron-client relationships, 131 planning, 250—5 processing (q.v.) seasonal labour migration (q.v.) smoothing seasonal fluctuations, 24 socio-economic strategies, 130-1 storage (q.v.) survival strategies, 129-31 Thailand, 167 trading, 119 traditional, 104—50, 173, 226, 235, 238, 239. 2 5 ' varietal selection and development, 96, 106-13, 237 water management (q.v.) see also seasonal complementarities cowpea, 204, 207 credit default penalties, 164 formal, 11, 12, 165—6, 247 loan size, 166 market, 153, 163-9, 2I 5 mobilization, 168 non-formal, 17, 164-5, 167, 168 revolving, 12, 15 subsidies, 154, 165, 182, 194, 298 (Ch.7> n. 5) time preference, 9 320

INDEX -worthiness, 164 see also indebtedness; interest rates critical levels of income and consumption concept, 8-9, 293 (n.3) duration, 14 effect of expropriation, 73 inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal interaction 14—16 protein loss, 79 qualitative and quantitative aspects, 14 seasonal variation in, 14-16 critical temperatures, 93 crop development, see development, stages (of organisms) crop diversification as counter-seasonal strategy, 115, 119, 120

effect on marginal productivity, 20 crop failure, 191 crop residues, 89, 210 crop ripening, 129 crop variety characteristics, 96, 262 relation to species and environment, 94-6 passim crop yields effect of cultivation, 18; effect of irrigation, 123, 191 effect of marginal utility of consumption, 21 effect of maturity period, 22 modern varieties, 112 'package' approach, 188 undue research emphasis on, 21, i n , 198-203 passim cropped area, 122 cropping calendar, 243, 259, 261, 290, Figure A2 cropping intensity, effect of early varieties, 108 irrigation, 123, 191, 194 mechanization, 179 residual moisture, 114 cropping pattern, 2, 86, 204, 243, 290 cultivation, 2, 124, 176, 184, 185, 187, 188, 189, 238, 252 cultural factors, 140 see also social factors in seasonality

custom hiring, 129, 193 customary beliefs, 47, 64 safeguards, 73 taboos, 60 cycles agricultural, 137, 143 cropping, 208 life cycles of pests, 123, 219, 254 pastoral, see pastoral cycle prices, 163 production, 134 reproductive, in animals, 101, 102 reproductive, in humans, 38, 222 seasonal, 72, 190, 230, 290 dairying, 128 dams, 190, 232, Figure 9.1 see also irrigation Dasain sacrifice, 43 data collection census, 139, 291 iterative approaches, 231 'key informant', 259, 291 methodology, 259, 276, 291 on-farm, 140 primary, 139, 228-33, 25 7 questionnaires, 140, 259 rapid rural appraisal, 230-1, 256-92 requirements, 226-33 secondary, 139, 226-8 surveys, 139, 231 see also seasonal analysis day length, 38-9, Figure 2.6 see also photoperiod deficiency diseases, 77 deforestation, see resource depletion dehydration, 77 demand derived, 40 elasticity, 180, 183 for labour, see labour demand seasonality of, 39-40, 161, 294 (Ch.2, n.3), 296 (Ch.5, n.i) dependency relations, 129-31, 134, 216 depreciation, 1, 189, 196 'deseasonalizing' data, 226, 299 (n.3) deserts, 34, 297 (Ch.j, n.4) see also Kalahari

321

INDEX desirable characteristics, 107, 196 developed countries agricultural mechanization, 127-9 agricultural research and extension, n o , 235 counter-seasonal strategies (q.v.) perspectives on seasonality, 6-7 seasonal price spreads, 161-2, Figure 7-2 transportation links, 157 development assistance, see donor agencies 'debate', 6, 139, 224 impact on seasonality, 172 stages (of organisms), 38, 85, 9;, 119, 123, 296 (G1.4, n.2) structural shift in economy, 139 'tourism', 4 see also economic development diarrhoeal disease diarrhoea and vomiting (D & V), 62 in animals, 101 nutritional loss, 74, 77 seasonal incidence of, 47-74 passim diet restricted by cost, 75 vegan, 74—5 vegetarian, 74—5 see also nutrition dietary energy requirements, 44 digestibility of food, 99-100, 120 digging stick, 127, 238 disadvantaged, the definition, 44 effect of monopoly, 245 effect of technological change, I2 9 - 3 ! . 177 in agricultural research, 222, 228-37 passim, 299 (n.2) in policy statements, 218 powerlessness, 3, 129-31,189,219, 247 qualitative aspects of diet, 74 role of handicrafts, 118, 209, 235,

age, 13, 64 'calculated', 67-8 in allocation of food, 56 in allocation of workloads, 56 involuntary, 67 reverse, 65 disease crops, 199, 204, 238 endemic, 176 relationship with nutrition, 48 resistance/susceptibility, 199, 204 seasonal incidence, 44-6 passim, 227 see also diarrhoeal disease distance, in nomadic pastoralism, 98, 102, 134 non-formal credit, 169 seasonal migration, see seasonal labour migration distortions, see market distortions diurnal variation, 39 see also day length diversity in production conditions, 81, 98, 106, 1 2 9 , 2 0 8 , 215

varietal, 108, 199 division of labour, 65, 149 see also gender typing donkeys, 102 donor agencies, 202, 224, 236, 246 donor bias, 224—6 double cropping, see cropping intensity, effect of downstream effects, 177, 232-3, 250, 25 5, 266, Figure 9.1 drainage, 126, 244 draught animals, 112, 124, 186, 187, 191, 229 see also livestock 'draught power constraint', 186, 187, 2 43 drinking water (animal), 55, 70, 98,

101—2

drinking water (human) dugwells, 55 quality, 13, 48, 60, 219 role of women and children, 13, 66 dromedaries, 102 drought-resistance, see tolerance of drought

244, 251

role of homestead production, 208-9 survival strategies, 129-31 discrimination against women, see women against children, see children 322

INDEX dry areas, 3; dry season bias, 4 child survival, 62 effect on animal breeding cycles, 102 effect on animal nutrition, 70, 98-103 passim, 205-6 occupations, 142 marginal productivity, 19 moisture availability, see soil moisture monsoonal areas, 87, 262 prolonged, 176 trading, 25, 142-3 dualism, 164 dung, 55, 89, 252 see also fertilizer Dunn Nutrition Unit, 49 Durga Puj'a sacrifice, 43 duty, see taxes dynamic aspects of seasonality, 3, 16 early varieties, see maturity character earnings, see income Earth's tilt,. 28, 293 (Ch.2, n.i), Figure 2.1

East Africa, 34, 206 see also individual

countries

ecological agriculture, 239 ecology, 176 economic choice, freedom of, 136, 154, 245 development, 174, 175, 218, 220-1 integration, 151, 152, 153, 170, 172 leverage, 154 macro-economics, 140, 243 opportunity, 180, 243 economists, 5, 6 economy centrally planned, 151, 189 market based, 151, 161 structural shifts, 139, 174 Edinburgh (Scotland), 85, Figure 4.1 education, 133, 223, 235, 247 eggs, 47 see also oestrus Egypt ag-iruhural research, 204 Cop;;:. Christianity, 41 irrigation, 122

Nile Valley, 92 seasonal exports, 169 El Salvador, 50 elasticity, 180—i, 183 elevation, 21 see also altitude employment creation, 185, 250, 299 (n.io) formal sector, 138 opportunity, 143, 146, 175, 180, 243, 250, 272, 276 seasonal variation, 1, 13, 117, 120, 138, 146, 183, 188, 190, 179, 191 see also: labour; labour supply; landless labourers empowerment, 219, 231, 237, 247 energy bodily storage, 76 'crisis', 120 dietary requirements, 44, 289 food, 47, 115 needs, 174 negative energy balance, 73 -rich foods as cheap food, 77 seasonal deficits, 53, 54, 73, 295 (n.15) seasonal requirements, 53 Entebbe (Uganda), Figure 2.2 enterprise, see farming enterprise entrepreneurial spirit, 153, 154 environment effect on inter-plot differences, 20, 21 effect on movement, 81 interaction with climate, 80-2 macro level, see macro-environments meso level, see meso-environments micro-environment, 81 physical, 80 environmental adaptation, 84, 115, 120, 215 change, 196 concerns, 224, 298 (O1.7, n.6); see also resource depletion conditions, 134 ephemeral species, see species Equator, 29, 34 equatorial trough, 32-3, 77; see also intertropical convergence zone zone, 27, 28, 35

323

INDEX equinox, 34 equity issues, 18, 182, 183, 190, 218, 225, 242, 245, 252

erosion, see soil erosion essential elements of diet, 75,77, 295 (n.i 5) estate agriculture, 133 Ethiopia Coptic Christianity, 41 famine, xiii labour, 178, 185, 188 evaporation, 92, 124, 185 evapotranspiration, 92, 293 (Ch.2, n.2) evolution adaptability to poor nutrition, 76-8 by weeds, 97 exports, 169, 198 expropriation, 73 extrapolation, dangers of, 51, 72 Faidherbia albeda, 117

fallows, 110, 239 family dependency, 130 see also intra-family disparities famine, xiii, 115 'farmer-back-to-farmer', 234 'farmer first and last', 234 farmers' almanac, 2 farming enterprise complementarities, 113-19, 167 defined, 113 traditional systems, 174, 203 farming systems research, see 'systems' Fasciola hepatica, 101—2

fashions in development, 224 fasts, 41-2 fat deposits, 70, 78 energy supply, 52 essential fatty acids, 75 loss in animals, 101 reserves, 54 -soluble vitamins, 76 feasts/festivals, 42-3, 167-8 feeder roads, 15 7 female -headed households, 140 seclusion, 45, 65, 66, 209 see also women; girls, discrimination against

'fertile crescent', 175 fertilizer bias, 235 counter-seasonal effects, 119 effect on crop yields, 188 imports, 186 labour-augmenting, 184 organic, 55, 238 -responsive varieties, 196, 202 feudalism, 153 fever, 47 financial problems, 128 fisheries, 118, 209, 211, 299 (n.14) flooding, 21, 87, 160, 201, 244, 272, 292

flower initiation (FI), 95-6, 112, 120 flowering display, 95 flowers, 119-21, 169 fodder, 201, 207, 251 see also livestock folate, 77 folic acid, bodily storage, 76 food availability, 54-6 passim biological value, 78, 79 consumption, 1—18, 104 crops, 198 energy, 52 prices, see prices, seasonal variation role in bodily growth and maintenance, 52 seasonal variation in consumption, 1 8, 56 stocks, 54 Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), 202 food storage, bodily reserves, 54 financial costs, 51, 7;, 105 nutritional loss, 76 on-farm, 163, 221 perceived as 'women's work', 66 food-for-work, 244, 267 foodgrains, 208 see also staples foreign exchange, 186, 194, 196 forests, 89, 174, 275, 282, 299 (n.14), 300 (n.9) see also deforestation; trees

324

INDEX formal sector, 138 see also modern sector fragile lands, 176, 177, 299 (n.14) fragmentation, 186, 298 (n.2) frost in definition of tropics, 28 -tolerance/resistance, see tolerance fuel, 46, 53, 65, 182, 186, 189, 196, 209, 219, 251, 294 (Ch.3, n.2) futures market, IOJ Gambia, The baseline nutritional studies, 49 ' oxenization' schemes, 184 seasonal in-migration, 134 seasonal weight loss, 54, 57, 62 Gangetic Plain, 34, 108 garment industry, 39 gastro-intestinal disorders, 49, 50 gender typing changing patterns, 66, 149, 245 effects of seasonal migration, 136, 149 source of disparities, 65, 106, 222 genetic characteristics, 106, 107, 120, 196, 198, 199, 202 diversity, 199, 221, 238 geophytes, 115 Germany, no—11 germination, 88, 96 Gezira Scheme (Sudan), 185 Ghana, 54, 134 girls, discrimination against, 64—5, 106 glasshouses, see greenhouse production goats, 102 ' g o o d ' years, 16-17, 2 I 7 government intervention, 154-5, 16}, 171-2, 182, 189-90, 193, 217, 219 see also government policy government policy agricultural, 181, 182, 189, 212, 214—55 passim developmental, 251 educational, 254 financial, 223, 254 foreign, 25 5 health, 252 industrial, 252 transportation, 246, 253

grain-to-straw ratio, 198 grass pea (Lathyrus sativus), 253-4 grasslands/grazing, 99, 174 Great Lakes Highlands (East Africa), 93, 108 Great Rift Valley, see valley green manure, 126, 252 'green revolution', 194, 198, 199, 221, 229, 251, 297 (Ch.7, n.2), 298 (Ch.8, n.6) greenhouse production, 119-21 Greenwich (England), Figure 2.2 groundwater, 92 growing period defined, 95 length, 106, 119, 161, 205, 249, 262 specific, 113, 194, 262 growing season defined, 94 differences between species, 113, 262 effect of soil moisture, 124-6, 238 extension of, 123, 124-6, 209, 249, influence of weeds, 95 length, 92, 106, 125, 161, 184, 2oi, 204, 272 new, 204 photoperiodism (q.v.) trees, 125 growth, organic, 38, 119, 123, 296 (Ch.4, n.2) Guatemala, 52 guinea worm, 48 Gujarat (India), 124 Guyana, 206 43 'half life' of nutrients, 76 handicrafts, see disadvantaged Harare (Zimbabwe), Figure 2.2 harrowing, 129 harvest as busy season, 142, 178-9, 187, 238, 267, 272, 275 effect of fasting, 42 effect of seasonal migration, 136, 148, 150 effect of similium, 48 festival, 42

325

INDEX pre-harvest hungry season, i, 3, 64, 150

sacrifice, 42 women's roles, 65 harvesting, 129, 142, 167, 185, 188 see also harvest Havana (Cuba), Figure 4.1 Hawaii, 85 head loading, 160 health, 5, 44-79 passim see also disease hemispheres complementarities, 81 north-south differences, 29 seasonal, Figure z.i hidden charges, 165, 166 high yielding varieties, 194, 197-202, 206, 237, 262, Table 8.1 see also modern varieties Himalayas, 34, 84, 87 Hindu Kush, 34 Hinduism, 43, 294 (Ch.2, n.j), 298 (n.2) hoe cultivation, 127, 184 Honiara (Solomon Islands), 135 horses, 102 horticulture, 127, 209, 211 hospital records, 227 hot season stress, 60, 117 household as decision-making unit, 133, 144, 216, 219, 230, 297 (Ch.6, n.3) see also intra-family human capital development, 133 humid tropics, 263, Figure 2.4 humidity, 31 'hungry millet', 108 hungry season as busy season, 69 as season of malnutrition, 76-9 passim,

235

as season of undernutrition (cf. malnutrition), 76-9 passim child survival, 50, 64, Figure 3.4 crops, 108, 115; see also maturity character debts, 229 employment, 24, 111 food availability, 75, 130, 210, 217, 2 3 5> 247, 296 (n.17)

for livestock, see livestock pre-harvest, 1, 3, 161 prices, see prices, seasonal variation rainy season (q.v.) role of early varieties, 22, 108, 112, 203-4 role of irrigation, 123 transportation problems, v6o stress transmission, 214 hunter-gatherers Amazon rain forest, 73 effect of settled agriculture, 73, 177, 251

in the macro-environment, 132 Kalahari San, 70-2, 77 seasonal migration, 139 special problems, 69 hydro-electric schemes, 175 hygiene, 49, 59 HYVs, see high yielding varieties Id al-Adha, 43, 294 (n.7), 296 (n.17) illiteracy, 154, 155, 237 immunity, 59, 176 incentives, 182, 195 income current, 9 future, pledging of, 9, 15—16, 216 generation, 208, 209, 216 -maximization strategies, 143 non-farm, 167, 174, 216 off-season, 116, 179 peak season, 16, 167, 289 proportion spent on food, 44, 289 seasonal variation, 11, 39, 134, 167, 168 indebtedness, 17 see also credit

India farmer-pastoralist relations, 118 guinea worm, 48 irrigation, 123, 191 labour displacement, 178-9, 199 lathyrism, 253—4 seasonal labour migration, 138, 142 short season varieties, 108 Indian Agricultural Research Institute, 197

Indian subcontinent, see South Asia

326

INDEX indigenous knowledge, 231, 235, 251 see also traditional technologies Indonesia migrant workers, 13; see also Java

(ICARDA), 204, 207, 253, Table 8.2 International Center for Living Aquatic Resource Management (ICLARM),

industrialization, 118, 174, 214-15, 218,

International Council for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), 210 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICR1SAT), 204, 205, 207, Table 8.2 International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), 209 International Food Policy Research Institute (1FPRI), Table 8.2 International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (1ITA), 204, 207, 209, 211, 299 (n.i), Table 8.2 International Irrigation Management Institute (1IMI), 209 International Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases (ILRAD), Table 8.2 International Livestock Research Centre for Africa (ILCA), 206, 207, 208, Table 8.2 International Rice Research Institute (1RR1), 204, 211, Table 8.2 International Service for National Agricultural Research (1SNAR), 233, Table 8.2 intervention, see government intervention intra-family dependency relationships, 130 disparities, 44, 56-69, 75, 217, 222, 228, 229-30

209

"5 infant survival, 50, 64, Figure 3.4 infants, see children inflation, 16; see also prices, seasonal variation information flows/gaps, 153, 154, 155. 226 infrastructure, 24, 146, 156, 215, 217, 244 inheritance, 17;, 298 (n.2) input supply, 248—9, 298 (Ch.8, n.6) see also agro-chemicals; fertilizer; seed, etc. insects, 48, 50, 118, 252, 254 isolation, 27, 82, 91 see also solar radiation inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), 3 2 - } . 34, 35. Figure 2.3 intercropping, 115, 204 interdisciplinary approach, 3, 236 interest rates effect of collateral, 12 formal credit market, 11 levels, 153, 164, 165, 166, 196 negative rates, I I , 165 nominal rates, 16;, 166 on past loans, 12 post-harvest, 164 real, 165, 168 see also credit

interlinked markets, see market international agricultural research centres, see agricultural research; individual centres migration, 144, 145, 255, 275 trade, 169 International Board for Plant Genetic Resources (1BPGR), Table 8.2 International Board for Soil Research and Management, 209 International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas

see also kinship ties investment, 119-29, 186, 189, 252 Iraq, 2, 107, Table 5.1 iron, bodily storage, 76 irrigation, advantages, 123—4 as counter-seasonal technology, 121—4,

!

4 4 > 171—2, 2 1 6 , 2 5 3

Bangladesh, 262-3, 2(>6, 272 bias, 4, 124, 212—13, 2 ^3 canals, 191

effect on women's workloads, 150 2

37

INDEX in medieval South China, 2 in relation to mechanization, 190-6 India, 190-1 irrigated areas, 122-3, Table 5.2 on valley bottoms, 92 Pakistan, 123, 171-2, 191—3, Figure 8.2 potential, 176 pumps, 189 research, 209 schemes, 193, 194, 196, 218 Sri Lanka, 141 surface, 193 tubewells, 172, 193, Figure 8.2 wells, 191 see also water management Islam attitude to usury, 165 calendar, 41 duty towards poor, 130, 296 (n.17) fast, see Ramadan feasts, 43, 226 inheritance, 298 (n.2) pilgrimage season {Hajf), 43 itinerant labourers, 14;, 146 Ivory Coast, 134 Jainism, 42 Jamaica, 165-6 Japan, 12c, 300 (O1.9, n.6), Figure 5.2 Java (Indonesia) cultivation technique, 187, Figure 8.1 gender typing, 66 'minibus revolution', 146 'stacked' cropping, 126 jute, 163-4, 262, 294 (O1.3, n.2) Kalahari, 1, 70-3, Figures 3.5, 3.6 see also deserts Kali (Hindu goddess), 42 Kathmandu (Nepal), 85, Figure 4.2 kenaf, 167 Kenya employment complementarities, 143 Kikuyu people, 73 Land expropriation, 73 livestock sector, 205 Machakos project, 52-3 qualitative aspects of diets, 74

research on tree species, 210 water harvesting, 125 kinship ties, 144 kitchen gardens, 209, 235 kwashiorkor, 59, 295 (n.8) labour allocation, Figure 5.3 -augmenting technologies, 119, 12;, 1 8 3 - 8 , 190, 191, 215, 242

bonded, 164 bottlenecks/constraints, 107-13 passim, 120, 124, 127, 128, 179-83, 186—90 passim, 196, 199, 204, 207, . 242 circulation, 133-48 passim, 277 conscription, 137 contractors, 146-8, 152, 286, 287, 289-90 demand, 146, 179, 191, 193, 195, 196, 244, 267, 286, Figures 5.1, 5.2, 8.2 -displacing technologies, 119, 127, 130, 131, 178-83, 185, 190, 216, 221, 225, *4>, 242. M 3 . * 9 8 ( n -9). 299 (n.io) family /farm household, 13, 183, 191, 298 (Ch.8, n.5) forced, 137, 215 intensive technologies, 181, 182, 185, 191, 196, 242, 244 peak season (q.v.) productivity, 19-20, 176, Figure 1.3 -saving technologies, 127—9, 2 I ^ scarcity, 135, 137, 291 supply, 13, 23, 135, 137, 146, 180, 181, 196, 221, 244; see also landless labourers surplus, 146, 196, 291 lactation, see women Lagos (Nigeria), 9 0 - 1 , Figure 4.4 land alienation, 24, 150, 174, 175 fragmentation, consolidation, 241, 242 improvement, 119 levelling, 126 masses, 82 preparation, 141, 193, 269, Fig. 8.1; see also ploughing season 328

INDEX productivity, 19-20, 179, 182, 185, 2 '7, reform, 218, 240-2 unoccupied, 176 use, 156-9, Figure 7.1 'land to the tiller', 240 landless labourers access to resources, 129, 215 as the 'ultra poor', 44 credit needs, 167-9 effect of inheritance systems, 175 effect of land reform, 240-1 effect of mechanization, 180-2, 183 food stocks, 54, Figure 3.1 in farming systems research, 229, 235 in seasonal labour migration, 143—j,

livestock breeding, 205 classification of products, 100-1 crossbred, 205 diseases, 101, 205 effect of religious feasts, 42-3 environmental factors, 98-103 exotic, 20; markets, 227 on acid soils, 87 parasitic infestation, 101-2 ranching, 206 research, 205—6, 210 role of trees, 117 seasonal variation in feed availability, 2, 43, 69, 85, 98, 100, 102, n o , 118, 2 0 1 , 206, 207—8

150

scasonality of employment, 13, 183; see also employment landlords, 131, 150, 154, 163, 182 landowners, 54, 226, Figure 3.1 landslides, 160, 161 large farmers, 131, 150, 166, 167, 179, 181, 188, 189, 226, 254 see also 'surplus' farmers lathyrism, 253-4 Lathyrus sativus (grass pea), 253-4 Latin America agricultural research performance, 212, 299 (n.15)

irrigated area, Table 5.2 migrant labour flows, 134 savanna areas, 87, 206 see also South America; individual countries latitude, 39, 81, 82, 120, 129, 160 leaching of nutrients, 87 leaf-fall, 126 legal factors in seasonally, 39-40 Lenten fast, 27, 41 Lesotho, 50, 244 libido, 60, 103 lignin, 201 Lima (Peru), Figure 2.2 liver adaptation to protein loss, 79 cirrhosis, 79 flukes, 102 storage of vitamins, 76

see also pastoralists loans, see credit; interest local varieties, 262 see also counter-seasonal measures; crop variety lodging (stem collapse), 113, 201 logging, 135 London (England), 90—1, Figure 4.4 long-day crops, 96 see also photoperiodism longitudinal nutritional studies, 52, 53 'lumpiness', 178, 298 (Ch. 8, n.6) lysine, 78 macro-environments counter-seasonal strategies based on differences, 104, 129, 151, 216, 244 definition, 81 effect of altitude, 86 effect of latitude, 129 interaction of variables, 94 pastoralism, 98—102 seasonal complementarities within, 100, 132, 134, 140, 151, 169, 172, 226, 230, 246, 259, 278

seasonal migration within, 81, 86, 94, 98-102, 140, 259, 261 trade between, 105 maintenance, 128, 186, 189 maize -based cropping systems, 203, 208 drought-tolerant varieties, 204

329

INDEX early varieties, 108, 114 effect of altitude, 8j, 86, 94 effect of labour migration, 136 fertility requirements, 87 importance, 115 seasonal price spreads, 162 malaria, 47—j 3 passim Malawi, 53, 210 Malaysia, 135, 194 male domination, 64-7, 222, 250 Mali draught animals, 186 hungry season, 69 milk production, 103 'surplus' and 'deficit' households, 55 malnutrition, see nutrition management problems, 179, 216 manioc, 94 manufacturing industry, 6, 221, 225 see also industrialization manure, 103, 118, 126 see also dung; fertilizer Maranhao (Brazil), 116 marasmus, 59, 295 (n.8) marginal farmers, 3, 130, 175, 183, 216, 219, 241 impact, 217 lands, 176, 203 product/productivity, 19-20, 180, Figure 1.3 utility of consumption, 21, 219, 221 marginalization, 73, 78, 81, 177, 215, 2

39 maritime locations, 82-3, Figure 4.1 market accessibility, 176, 202 as counter-seasonal strategy, 66-7, 105, 151-72 passim 'black', 155, 166 channels, 196 development, 152, 153, 175 distortions, 151-72 passim, 196, 245-50 economy, 105, 151, 154 effect on gender typing, 66 entry, 153, 165, 246 failure, 146, 151-72 passim, 179, 181, 245-50

forces, 1; 1-72 passim, 190, 215, 217 free 248 intelligence, 144—5, '5 3~4> '56, 168, 169 interlinked, 154, 165, 217 intermediaries, 151—3 passim mechanism, 214 orientation, 151-2; see also subsistence agriculture secondary, 163 signals, 15 5 tertiary, 163 maturity character catch crops, 19 early-maturing varieties, 96, 107, 204 effect of altitude, 85, 86, Figure 4.3 historical records, 107-8, Table 5.1 influence on yield, 22 late-maturing, 96 period, 21 quick-ripening/short duration varieties, 2, 92 type, 96, 262 varietal differences, 107, 296 (n.3) see also short duration crops meals, see wages; school meals mean-variance relationships, 8-9, 168, 176, 214, Figure 1.1 see also poverty-seasonality relationships mechanization, see agricultural mechanization meso-environments animal husbandry, 103 counter-seasonal strategies, 104, 129, 216 definition, 81-2 diversity within, 94, 106, 129, 199 effect of altitude, 86 labour supply, 180 seasonal complementarities within, 103, 129, 226 metabolism, 52, 56 methionine, 78 Mexico City, Figure 2.2 seasonal exports, 169 seasonal labour migration, 145-6 strawberry production, 170—1

330

INDEX micro-environment, 81 microclimate, 34 Middle East, 85, 17; see also West Asia migration ITCZ, 32, 34, 35, Figure 2.3 labour, see seasonal labour migration permanent, 134, 137 rural-urban, 134, 225 theory, 132-;, 138-9 urban—rural, 134, 275—8 migratory species, 47 milk, 57, 103 see also breast milk millet, 85, 94, 108 minerals, essential, 77 minimum tillage, 124, 239 minimum wage legislation, 154 mining, 133 minorities cultural—religious, 45 discrimination against, 46 economic, 45, 69—73, 176, 219 modern sector, 134—7 passim, 156, 164 varieties (MVs), m , 298 (Ch.8, n.6), 300 (App., n.5); see also seed m o i s t u r e , 8 1 , 86, 9 1 , 92, 121, 125, 126, 266

see also soil moisture money, as unit of value, 151-2 moneylenders, 154, 164—5» J68 see also credit, non-formal monoculture, 174, 238 monopoly labour contractors, 148 profits, 1; 2, 156 public sector, 223, 245, 248 monsoon, see winds

monsoonal category of climates, 33 Montevideo (Uruguay), 157 Moscow (USSR), Figure 4.1 mountains orographic lifting, 31, 34 transhumance, 85, 100 mountainous areas, 81, 160, 176 Mozambique, 85 mulching, 118, 252 multidisciplinary approach, 231, 236

multiple cropping, see cropping intensity, effects of; cropping pattern multi-purpose crops, 201, 208, 209 muscle tissue, metabolization, 53, 56 mutual exchange, (of labour, etc.), 22, 118, 129, 131, 144, 230, 300 (O1.9, n.7) national agricultural research centres, see agricultural research natural selection, 94, 97 Nepal altitude effect on plant development, 85, 86 altitude-temperature relations, 84-5, Figure 4.2 aspect, 91 seasonal labour migration, 142 seasonal price spreads, 161—2, 297 (Q1.7, n.4). Figure 7.2 terai, 84, 142 'new household economies', 229—30 niacin, 76 niche, seasonal, 120 Niger pastoralists, 57, 72 seasonal weight loss of men and women, 57—9, Figure 3.2 seasonal workloads of men and women, 57-9, Figure 3.2 Nigeria commercial crop zone, 134 discrimination against children, 68 railway development, 146 rainfall and soil moisture, 90—1, Figure 4.4 seasonal food consumption, ;6 slack season trading, 142—3 Sokoto Caliphate, see Sokoto vitamin deficiencies, 77 Nile Valley, see valley 'nitrogen flush', 97 nomadic pastoralists, see pastoralists non-formal sector, 166, 196 non-perishable produce, see perishability non-seasonal industries, 7, 9-12 passim, 135-8, 143, 214, 218, 242

331

INDEX North Africa, 117, 204, 207 see also individual countries nutrients bodily storage, 76—9 plant, 86, 119, 185 requirements, 47, 115, 119 supply, 115 wastage, 47-5} nutrition adaptability to poor nutrition, 76 animal, 205 longitudinal studies, 52, 53 malnutrition, 59, 73-9 passim, 148,209 malnutrition cf. undernutrition, 59, 73-8 qualitative versus quantitative aspects, 73-9 relationship with disease, 48 special needs, 57, 68, 73 undernutrition, 6;, 73-9 passim workers, j see also protein; calorie nutritional status, 45, 49, 51, 60, 62, 65, 67, 148 stress, 22, 50 value, 74, 115 oats, 107 oestrus, 102 off-season, 209, 223, 244, 246 see also out-of-season crops; slack season oilseed cake, 172 oilseeds, 208, 262 old persons, see discrimination, age on-farm research, 174, 234; see also agricultural research; 'systems' open-access resources, 129, 206, 216 opportunity cost, 109, 145, 180, 186, 210, 227, 296 (Ch.j, n.2) optimum economic, 130 planting/sowing dates, 105, 106, 186 organic farming, 239 organic growth, see growth, organic organization, 129 orographic lifting, 31 out-of-season crops, 106, 170

overgrazing, see resource depletion ovulation, 60 oxen, 186 see also draught animals ' oxenization' schemes, 184 pack animals, 160 'package' approach, 194, 196, 298 (Ch.8, n.6) paddy, 162, 18;, 194 see also rice Pakistan coefficient of seasonality, Table 7.1 irrigation, 123, 171—2, 191—3 labour displacement, 199 maize in Swat Valley, 208 trends in seasonality, 171-2, Table 7.1 palatability, 60, 115 Papua New Guinea, 50, 29; (n.9) parasites, 47, 97-8, 101-2 participatory approaches, 234-j see also rapid rural appraisal passing down seasonal stress, see stress transmission; discrimination pastoral cycle, 98, 102, 134, 230 pastoralists as economic minorities, 69, 210 diet, 74 hungry season, 69 in the macro-environment, 98, 132 loss of land to agriculture, 72 nomadic, 69, 81, 98, 118, 139, I J I , 177. 2O7> 25> seasonal variation in feed availability, 2, 69, 85, 98, 100, 102, 118 seasonality contrasts with farmers, 69-70 semi-nomadic, 69, 18;, 207 transhumance, 69, 85, 100, 255 pasture, 98-100, 296 (n.4), Figure 4.5 patron-client relationships complementarities, 13 1 effect of agricultural mechanization, 24

effect effect effect effect

of colonialism, 24 of population pressure, 24 on disadvantaged, 4 on seasonal labour migration,

143, 144, 150, 216, 244

332

INDEX photoperiodism defined, 95 in animals, 102 in plants, 95-6 in rice, 96, 112, 199 varietal differences, 107, 112 see also short-day crops; long-day crops 226-7 photosynthesis, 38, 120 employment, 67, 131, 162, 182, 183, physiological features, 70 188, 193, 215, 227, 229, 243, 275, pig, 102 298 (Ch.8, n.j) energy requirements, 53; see also peak pigeon pea, 204 plains, 160 season, workloads plant breeding, 197, 199 in-migration, 13 8-48 passim plantains, 74 in same meso-environment, 131 planting season income, 16, 167, 289 dates, 208 labour, 20, 22, 48, 59-60 passim, effect of guinea worm, 48 1 2 9 - 3 1 , 135, 138, 178, 181, 207, effect of similium, 48 *75> 2 7 8 effect on credit needs, 167 mechanization, 178—9, 190 effect on seed prices, 162 nutritional problems, 47, 48, 50, 25; plough culture, 55, 65, 127, 129, 184, prices (q.v.) 185, 238 sowing, 162 ploughing season workloads, 20, 22, 48, 56-9, 60, 67, effect of fasts, 42 207, Figure 3.2 effect of feasts, 43 peas, 107 requirements, 188, 229 penetration of ideas, 15 3 seasonal migration, 136, 148, 269 perception of seasonality, 4-6, 25, 226, ploughpan, 186 231, 250 pneumonia, 50 perennials policy, see government policy herbaceous, 95 p o o r farmers, 202, 219, 222, 252, 254, weeds, 97 299 ( n . i ) woody, 95, 208, 23; see also marginal farmers; small see also species farmers perishability 'poor relations', 130 classification of produce, 105 population density, 175, 242, 298 (n.7) effect of time preference, 11 population growth, effect on effect on agricultural location, 156 critical levels of income, 17 effect on nutritional standards, 75 gender typing, 65 effect on prices, 161—4 passim economic minorities, 69, 72 permaculture, 239 patron-client relationships, 24, 131 Peru, 86, 150, 204 resource pressures, 175, 239, 291 pests, 97-8, 202, 204, 238 seasonal labour migration, 137, 291 pH value, see soil, acidity size of holding, 77 phanerophytes, 116 traditional counter-seasonal Philippines, 168, 232, Fig. 9.1 technologies, 174 photoperiod, 37, 39 population pressure, see population photoperiod sensitivity, see growth • photoperiodism

effect on village systems, 23, 230 mutualities, 131 peak season work, 20, 22, 48 peak season births, 59-60 conception, 60 disease, 44-8 passim, 59-63 passim,

333

INDEX Port Harcourt (Nigeria), 146 Port Moresby (Papua New Guinea), Figure 2.2 post-harvest credit, 164, 247 expenses, 167 operations, 66, 106, 112, 185, 267; see also processing prices (q.v.) potassium salts, loss of, 77 potatoes early varieties, n o effect of altitude, 85, 86, 94 winter crop, 262, 266 potential evapotranspiration (PET), 293 (Ch.2, n.z) poultry, 171, 209, 211, 235 poverty-powerlessness (distinction), 220

poverty-seasonality relationships access to water, 13 agricultural economics, 5 attack at two levels, 25, 240 employment opportunities, 13 limits on market development, 154 mean-variance matrices, 8-18 mutual reinforcement, 2, 11, 217—18 national level, 18—19, 40, 215 nutritional aspects, 44—79 passim technological change, 173, 202 power tillers, 189 see also tractor powerlessness, 3, 129-31, 189, 219, 231 see also disadvantaged; empowerment precipitation, 31, 125, 176 pregnancy, see women prices controls, 154, 155, 221, 245 factor, 19; 'farm gate', 156, 175 food, 156, 182, 248; see also prices, seasonal variation inter-regional differences, 152 seasonal variation, n , 17, 106, 120, 123, 152, 155, 156, 161-3, 167, 2ij, 246, 247, 290, Figure 7.2 selling, IOJ support, 154 private sector, 245-50 passim

privatization, 223, 299 (n.5) problem orientation, 235, 236 processing, 104-6 passim, 119, 130, 244, 270

production, effect of seasonality on flows, 1, 8 'professional bias', 4 'project bias', 4, 224 proletarianization, 133, i;o protein animal, 74, 75, 78 as energy source, 52, 78 complete, 78 deficiency, 78 digestibility, 100 -energy malnutrition (PEM), 59, 73, 79, 295 (n.8) human, 78 levels in pastures, 99, Figure 4.5 vegetable, 74, 78 vegetable-animal conversion, 42 public works, 244, 300 (n.8) 'pull' effect, see seasonal labour migration pulses, 208, 210, 262

Punjab (India), 108, 178, 179 'push' effect, see seasonal labour migration pyrethrum, 94 qualitative aspects of nutrition, 73-9, 296 (n.16) questionnaires, 140, 259 rabbits, 209 railways, 146, 157, 160, 217, 246, 286 rain shadow effect, 34, 160 rainfall basis for classifying seasons, 31, 34-9, Figures 2.4, 2.5, Table 2.1 reliability, 34 research based on rainfall zones, 209 seasonal variation, 30-8, 143, 160, Figures 2.2, 2.4, 4.5, A2, A3 temperate zone, Figure 2.2 tropical, 88, 160, 185, Figures 2.2, 4.4 see also bimodal rainfall pattern; unimodal rainfall pattern rainfed agriculture, 123, 124, 141,

334

171-2,

203

INDEX rainstorms, 160, 161, 176 see also storms rainy season accessibility problems, 24, 75 as hungry season, 4, 49, 226 crop nutrient supply, 115 effect on soil fertility, 87 flooding, 112—13, 201 fuel problems, see fuel in pastoralism, 58, 98, 117 interaction with season of birth, 60—4 labour requirements, 48, J9-60 passim, 138, 207 livestock feed supply, 117 nutritional problems, 75 onset, 97 rotting of produce, 112 threshing problems, 112 transportation, 160-1 Ramadan, 27, 41, 42, 294 (Ch.2, n.4) rapid rural appraisal, 140, 230-3, 250 see also data collection; seasonal analysis rate of interest, see interest rates rationing, 154, 165, 166 reciprocal obligations, see mutual exchange refrigeration, 157 regime maintenance, 221 relay cropping, 124 relief, 91-2, 126, 160 religious factors in seasonality, 41-3, 130 see also individual

religions

remittances, see seasonal labour migration remote areas, 75, 202 rents, 195 reproductive cycle, see cycles research and development, 177-8, 197, 199 see also agricultural research resource conservation and management, ' 7 6 . 2 37, 2 5 2 resource degradation, see resource depletion resource depletion deforestation, 73, 125, 174, 176, 291 effect on critical levels of income, 17, 73

effect on disadvantaged, 129, 237 effect on gender typing, 65 effect on seasonal labour migration, 137, 29!> 2 9 2 effect on traditional counter-seasonal strategies, 173-8 environmental effects, 173-8, 237 overgrazing, 100-2, 174 short-term gain/long-term loss, 237-9 passim, 252 soil erosion, see soils respiratory disease, 50, 52, 62, Figure 3-4 rice as basis of dry-season trading, 142 -based cropping/farming systems, 203, 207, 261 -90 passim -cotton rotation, 120, Figure 5.2 deep-water varieties, 262, 273 drought-tolerance, see tolerance of drought early varieties, 204, 207 effect of altitude, 85 high-yielding varieties (q.v.) importance, 115 late transplanting, 204 on nutrient-depleted soils, 87 research overlaps, 211 sales,- 167 semi-dwarf varieties, m , 199 -stem borer, 97-8 water requirements, 114 rickshaw pullers, 138, 275 ridges, 126 Rift Valley, see valley rinderpest, 205 risk -aversion, 8, 154, 174 children at risk, see children concept in economics, 5 dietary, 44, 56 in seasonal migrai . 1 , see seasonal labour migration of borrowing, 253 of lending, 16j, 168 of trading, 1 j 5, 161 role of irrigation, 123 storage, 11, 104, 105, 163-4 -taking, rewards for, 1 j 2

335

INDEX rivers cultivation of floodplains, 92 dry season pastures, 100-2 erosion, 177 Ganges, 289 Meghna, 289 navigation, 81, i;6, 160, 161 Nile, 92 salinity, 88 Uruguay River, 158 see also downstream effects ritual slaughter, 42 roads, 157, 158, 160, 217, 218, 246 Roman agriculture, 2 root crops 74, 208 root systems, 88, 125 rootlessness, 143 row-planting, 189, 208 Rwanda, 93, 210 Sahel, 90, 122-3, 20<> salinity (in rivers and soils), 87-8, 250, Saudi Arabia, 297 (Ch.j, n.4) savanna, 87, 206 savings, 9, 11 see also credit scale diseconomies, 181 schemes, 193, 194 school, attendance records, 227 holidays, 254 meals, 254 seasonal analysis diagnostic surveys, 208 input-output tables, 281, Table A4 'new household economies', 229-30 programming approach, 191-3 rapid rural appraisal, 140-1, 2)6-92 seasonal calendars, 232-3, Figure 9.1 seasonal mapping, 228, 243, 246 'systems' research, see 'systems' see also data collection; seasonality, measures of seasonal checks, 30 seasonal cycles, see cycles seasonal complementarities agriculture-wage employment, J 3 5 - 8 . M3

arable crop-tree crop, 116-17, I25> Figure 5.3 between hemispheres, 81 between species, 113-20, 208 crop—livestock, 103, 116—17, 2 1 ° effect on labour migration, 244, 245 influence of spatial effects, 25, 132, 140, 230

inter-varietal, 106-13 livestock-tree, 116 macro-environmental (q.v.) mountainous areas, 160 role of the market, 245 Sri Lankan wet—dry zones, 141—2 temperate-tropical zones, 121-2, 169 seasonal deprivation, 145 seasonal labour migration altitude differences as basis, 86; see also transhumance analysis of, 246, 256-92 as alternative to mechanization, 194, 242-5 case study (Bangladesh), 256—92 changing patterns, 146, 196, 243, 291, Figure 6.2 disadvantaged, 143-5, 148—50 passim, i<)1 (Ch.6, n.2) distances travelled, 142, 145, 284-6, 300 (App., n.7), Table A5 earnings, 138-48 passim, 285-9, Tables A7, A8 effect in spreading disease, 52 effect on birth rate, 149 effect on cropping pattern, 136 effect on season of births, 59, 149-50 illegal, 145 India, 142, 178—9 inter-village systems, 23 labour displacement effects, 131, 150, 178, 179, 216, 244 length of stay, 142, 270-3 macro-environmental causes, 81, 151, 2}O

means of transport, 146, 148, Table A6 'push' and 'pull' factors, 137, 141, 144, 266, 272, 275, 278, 281, 282

receiving areas, 140, 150, 244, Figure A8, Table A4

336

INDEX sequential mechanization, see agricultural mechanization service sector industries, 6 settlers, 176, 205 shade, 92, 124, 126, 204 see also tolerance sharecropping, 131, 148 shattering, 107 sheep, 102, 118 shifting cultivation, 69, 117 shifting seasons, 190, 193

remittances of migrants, 13 3 returning migrants, 133, 150 risk, 132, 133, 145, 176 source areas, 140, Figure A8, Table A4 Sri Lanka, 140—2, 194

type of employment, 267-70, Figures A4-A6 underperceived, 139—40 volume of flows, 134, 146, 266, 273-8, 285, Figure A7, Tables A3,

Shigella

A5

sonnet,

51,52

short-day crops, 96, 120 see also photoperiodism short duration crops, 92, 203, 209 see also maturity character short-stemmed varieties, see semi-dwarf varieties

seasonal stress, 72, 117, 130, 206, 214, 216, 218, 219, 221, 226, 2 3 ; , 240, 281

seasonality of births causes among humans, 59—60 effect on infants, 59-60, Figures 3.3, 3-4 regulation of, 254 seasonality, measures of coefficient of variation, 193, 296 (n.j) seasonality coefficient, 171, Table 7.1 seasonality index, 37—8, Table 2.1 seasonality ratio, 37 seasonally alternating surpluses and

similium, 48

deficits, 1 j 1, 152, 221

seclusion, see female seclusion seed -bed preparation, 189; see also cultivation certification, 249 labour-augmenting, 184 modern, 188, 194 prices, 161-2 production, n o supply, 249 seeding rate, 208 selective mechanization, see agricultural mechanization semi-arid tropics, 44, 98, 100, 186, 207 semi-dwarf varieties, in—13, 198—9, 229, Figure 5.1 see also rice; wheat semi-nomadic pastoralists, see pastoralists semi-perishable produce, see perishability Senegal, 134 sensitivity, see tolerance

Singapore, 31, Figure 2.2 single cropping, 194 see also cropping intensity slack season employment, 118, 183, 184, 185, 190, 219, 223, 298 (Ch.8, n.4) financing of consumption, 16, 182 out-migration, 138-48 passim production increases, 2 resource utilization, 2 'slash-and-burn'agriculture, 89, 116 slope, 21 see also relief

small farmers, 16, 141, 154, 163, 166, 167, 183, 220, 226 see also marginal farmers; smallholders smallholders, 3, 118, 131 see also marginal farmers; small farmers social factors in seasonality, 39—41, 140,

143, 145, 148-50, 164, 181 socio-economic groups, 143-4, 250 socio-economic status effect on discrimination, 3, 226 effect on education, 223, 235 effect on employment, 181, 196 effect on food consumption, 13 effect on isolation, 23 village hierarchies, 23, 153

337

INDEX soil acidity, 87, 119, 204, 296 (Ch.4, n.i) aeration, 88, 185 alkalinity, 204, 296 (Ch.4, n. 1) bacteria, 97 calcareous, 87 chemistry, 87-8 clays, 89 depth, 88, 125, 177, 238 effect on crop yields, 87 effect on cropping patterns, 87 environment, 86—91, 209 erosion, 174, 177, 239, 292 fertility, 21, 87, 126, 156, 177, 239, 2 2 5 forest, 89 humus, 89-90, 125, 126, 176, 177, 252 iron toxicity, 204 moisture, 86-91, 120-1, 176, 177, 185, 238, 239, 252, 263, 266, Figure 4.4 nitrogen, 88, 97 nutrient-depleted, 87 phosphorus, 87, 208, 296 (n.4) physics, 88-91 salinity, 87-8, 204 sandy, 89 structure, 88, 89 tropical, 88 type, 21, 82, 93, 185 waterlogging, 19, 20, 88, 92, 126 Sokoto (Nigeria) railway to Port Harcourt, 146 rainfall and soil moisture, 90-1, Figure 6.2 seasonal labour migration, 142-3, Figure 6.2 slack season trading, 142-3 solar radiation, 27, 28, 38 Solomon Islands, 135 solstice, 28, 39, 96, Figure 2.6 sorghum, effect of altitude, 95 South Africa, 50, 136 South America, 157 see also Latin America South Asia agricultural mechanization, 298 (n.7) monsoon, 33, 262 mutuality of patron—client relations,

seasonality of demand, 39 soils, 87 see also individual countries South West Africa Native Labour Association, 137 Southeast Asia, 33, 50 see also individual

countries

sowing, 162, 193, 208, 262, 268 soya bean, 96 species annual, 9; biennial, 95 complementarity between, 113-18, 262 effect of environment, 95-8 ephemeral, 95 perennial, see perennials spreading, see staggering Sri Lanka, irrigation schemes, 194, 196 rainfall zones, 93, 140-2, Figure 6.1 seasonal labour migration, 140—2, 144, 145, 146

'stacked' cropping, 126, 209 staggering (production, workloads, etc.) effect of relief, 92 impact of research, 209 of production, 21, 92, 106, 119, 172, 209, 238, 241, 242 planting dates, 21, 92, 106 resource requirements, 21, 87, 112, 199, 241 through crop diversification, 119 through irrigation, 172 through mixed farming, 238 staples effect of price on nutrition, 13, 77 'hungry season' availability, 14, 130 in restricted diets, 77 research focus, 210 seasonal price spreads, 161-2 starchy staples, see staples state-owned enterprises, 155, 223 statistical bias, 4 status, see socio-economic status stem borer, 97 characteristics, 113, 198, 199, 262; see also semi-dwarf varieties

338

INDEX storage, 164, 221

household, 15, 22, 229—30 human nutritional, 15 influence of spatial effects, 25 Pakistan, 207-8 village, 22-3, 24, 25, 230 world economic, 134

see also food storage s t o r m s , 160, 161, 176, 232

straw, see stem characteristics; livestock stress transmission, 3, 214-20 passim, 111,

240,

243,

250,

251

sub-Saharan Africa, 202, 206, 212, Figure 2.; subsidies, 154, 182, 187, 193, 222, 225, 243, 245, 248, 297 (Ch.;, n.4) subsistence agriculture effect of cash taxes, 24, 137, 144 surplus produce, 17, 202, 225 vis-a-vis market orientation, 152, 297 (Q1.7, n. 0,299 (n. 14), 299(Ch.9,n.}) subtropical highs, 34, 35 subtropics, 120 Sudan, 92, 185 sugarcane, 167 summer crops, 171, 191, 261

Tamanrasset (Algeria), 82, Figures 2.2, 4.1

Tanzania changes in gender typing, 66 research on tree species, 210 seasonal migration, 135 seasonal nutrition-disease interaction, 5° Sukumuland, 185 village governments, 137 'tarmac bias', 4, 52, 224 taxes, 24, 137, 144, 196, 217, 224 tea, 94

technological change -deciduous species, 117 appropriateness, 121, 173, 178-213 effect of continentality, 82 passim, 187, 203, 242 sunlight biological technologies, 196-213 photosynthesis, 38 critical levels of income, 17 relationship with rainfall, 39 effect on counter-seasonal strategies, sterilizing effect on soil, 49 173-8 see also zenithal sun effect on disadvantaged, 129-30 sunward aspect, 91 effect on hunter-gatherers, 72 supplemental feeding, 254 effect on marginal productivity, 20 'surplus' farmers, 54—5, 222, 225 effect on seasonal migration, 243, 291 survey reducing seasonality, 172 transfer of technology, 6, 7, 24, 197, credit survey, 167 205, 217, 242 data collection, 139 'survey slavery' 'turnkey' technology, 7 survival strategies, 129-31, 143 temperate climates, 29 sustainable agriculture, 174, 203, 209, 224, 238-9, 252, 299 (n.14) crops, 95, 120, 266 sweet potato, 51, 204, 211 zones, 29, 242 Syria, 41 temperature ' systems' altitude effect, 83-6, Figure 4.2 agricultural sector as a system, 25 ambient, 31, 81, 82 atmospheric, 27 agroecosystem, 229, 230, 299 (n.4) basis for classifying seasons, 31 boundaries, 20, 24, 25, 227 gradients, 83, 94 cropping systems research, 203-5, 229 lapse, 83 definition, 20 seasonal variation, 27-30, 185 farming systems research, 6, 20—1, tenancy, 220, 240 203, 206, 207, 222, 223, 224, see also land reform 228-30 passim, 234, 299 (n.2)

339

INDEX terracing, 92, 177, 239, 252 Thailand cash flows, 166-9 seasonal exports, 169 cassava, 116 theory agricultural location, see von Thiinen development, 6 migration, 132-5, 138-9 price mechanism, 152-3 'zero marginal product of labour', 6, 19 thermal characteristics, 32 therophytes, 115 thiamine, bodily storage, 76 thinning, 208 threshing, 66, 112, 188, 189 tillage, 254 see also cultivation; zero tillage, etc. tilt of the Earth, see Earth's tilt time preference defined, 9 rate of, 9—12 storage, 10; timeliness, 186, 248, 249 see also timing of operations timing of births, see seasonality of births crop seasons, 123, 275 food production, 21 operations, 20, 107, 112, 117, 186, 191,199, 261, 270—2,286, Figure 53 tolerance of acid soils, 87, 205, 206 adverse conditions, 205 alkalinity, 205 cold, 205, 262 density, 208 drought, 2, 20, 96, 107, 204, 205, 262 flooding, 204, 262 frost, 95, 96, 107, 110 heat, 204, 20; high altitude, 205 salinity, 205 shade, 92, 124, 126 soil toxicity, 96, 205 waterlogging, 96, 253 tomato, 96

'top-down' approach, 223 topography, 32, 80, 160 topsoil, 177 see also soils

tourism, 39 Townshend, Charles, 109 tractor effects on employment, 184-5, 187, •94, 195 hire, 188, 193 range of uses, 128-9, 2 9^ (n-8) use in water harvesting, 125 trade effect on seasonal nutrition patterns, 52 international, 169—70 slack season, 119, 142-3 trade-off, 186, 252 traditional counter-seasonal technologies, see counter-seasonal measures; seasonal complementarities crop varieties, 199 labour-saving technologies, 126-7 modes of production, 139 production relations, 139 sector, 134-8 passim, 156, 164 technologies, 126—7, '73> ' 78, 298 (n-3) varieties, see local varieties transaction costs, 23, 143, 145-6, 152, 166, 180, 216, 244, 282, 286 Transamazonica region (Brazil), 48 transhumance, 69, 85, 100, 255 transition periods, 253 zones, 93-4 transplanting as peak season, 141, 268, 270, 272 mechanization, 196 purpose, 126 rice, 112, 113, 142, 201, 262, 267, 300 (App., n.j) women's role, 6; transportation air, 161 'all-weather', 160 costs, 23, 24, 156—9, 175 development, 153, 154, 155, 243

340

INDEX infrastructure, 24, 146, 156, 215 quality, 160 seasonal variation, 24, 75, 160-1 tractors, 129 wind-powered, 157 trees complementarity with annual crops, 116-18

creating micro-environments, 81 in moisture conservation, 12; in sustainable agriculture, 252 perennial species, 95, 116 potential for disadvantaged, 118, 209-10, 245 research, 209, 255 trends in prices, 162 seasonality, 171-2, Table 7.1 tropics Cancer, Capricorn, 28 definition, 28 rainfall zones, 34-7 solar radiation, 120 tropical crops, 95, 194, 204 trypanosomiasis, 184 tsetse fly, 184, 190 tubers, 208 Tull, Jethro, 109 turnaround (between crops), 112 turnip, n o ' turnkey' technology, see technological change Uganda, 52, 210 'ultra-poor', 44, 48, 53—6, 79, 130, 189, 289, 294 (Ch.3 n.i) uncertainty, 145 see also risk

underemployment, see unemployment undernutrition, see nutrition unemployment, 1, 67, 128, 142 see also agricultural mechanization, labour-displacing technologies unimodal rainfall pattern causes, 34 effect on labour peaks, 48, 60, 184 effect on nutritional stress, 49 effect on soil moisture, 90-1 effect on tree species, 210

seasonality differences from bimodal areas, j1 single harvest, 5 3 understorey, 117 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 202 United States, 129, 145, 161-2, 169-71 passim, 297 (G1.7, n.4), Figure 7.2 uplands, 177, 270 urban bias, 4, 2 2 0 - 1 , 224, 225, 240, 2 4 1 , 246

development, 175 prices, 162 slums, 139 Uruguay (agricultural land use), 1; 7-9, Figure 7.1 usury, 165 Uttar Pradesh (India), 191 valley bottom land, 175 bottoms, 92 Cochabamba (Bolivia), 166 Great Rift, 8j, 93-4 inland (west-central Africa), 207 Nile, 92 Swat (Pakistan), 207-8 value neutrality, 235 Varanasi (Benares) India, 138, 27; varietal characteristics, see crop variety; genetic diversity varietal selection and development as counter-seasonal strategy, 106-13, 196-7, 199 effect on marginal productivity, 20 ill-effect on diversity, 199, 238 varietal turnover, 199 variety, see crop variety vegan diet, 74—5 vegetables, 75, 262 see also horticulture vegetarian diet, 74-5 Venezuela, 206 vertical integration, 170 vested interests, 243, 247 'vicious circle' indebtedness, 16, 18, 217 non-participation-powerlessness, 231

341

INDEX nutrition and parasite infestation, IOI-2

nutrition and work capacity, 48, 56 vitamins A, C, D, 76 B, 77 bodily storage, 14 deficiency, 76 voluntary agencies (VAs), 223-4, 244, 246, 247, 297 (Ch.;, n.5) von Thiinen (theory of agricultural location), 156—8, 297 (Ch.7, n.3) vulnerable groups, 254

watershed, 229, 25; weaning, dangers of, 59, 60, 61 weeds, 96-7, 103, 185, 270 weeding, 6;, 129, 179, 185, 189, 196, 254, 268, 270

weight loss children, 57 men and women compared, 57-9, Figure 3.2 hunter-gatherers, 71, Figure 3.6 seasonal, 49, 50, 53, 54, 56, 57, 295 (n.7, n.13), Figure 3.6 'well-nourished individual', 76-9 passim

West Africa wage employment, 135-8, 143 early varieties, 108 goods, 74, 168, 246, 288-9 migrant labour flows, 134, 146 legislation, 154 sudanic zone, 134 meals as part of, 67, 288-9, Table A8 see also individual countries rates, 179, 183, 193, 195-6 passim, West Africa Rice Development Association (WARDA), 204, 211, 229, 286-9, 2 9" (n-4) Table 8.2 Washington DC, Figure 2.2 West Asia, 204 wasting, 79 see also Middle East water Western Europe, 169 absorption, 89 wet season, 187 adsorption, 89 see also rainy season evaporation, 124 wetland cultivation, 185 evapotranspiration, 92 wheat holes, 101 early varieties, 107 penetration, 125 effect of altitude, 94 percolation, 89, 176 heat tolerance, 205, 266 plants, 103 high-yielding varieties, Table 8.1 requirements (of crops), 114, 124, price fluctuation, 161-3, Figure 7.2 266 protein composition, 78 run-off, 89, 124, 176 supplies, 177; see also drinking semi-dwarf varieties, 198 water requirements, 114 water winter 110, 262 see also moisture; soil moisture 'whole farm' approach, see 'systems' water management wild produce, 47, 118, 251, Figure 3.; conservation, 124, 125, 126 wilt point, 93 counter-seasonal technology, 122—6 winds harvesting, 124-5, l 8 4 air movement, 31 induced precipitation, 125 mistral, 33 raised beds, 126 research, 209 monsoon, 33-4, 50, 87, 262 ridges, 126 seasonal reversal, 31, 33, 34, 93 role of trees, 125-6 sirocco, 33 waterlogging, see soil trade, 32 see also irrigation; rainfed agriculture winnowing, 66 342

INDEX workloads, 57-9. 60, 130, 133, 149, 217, Figure 3.2 see also female seclusion; gender crops, 1 TO—11, 169, 171, 204, 261, 262 typing feed, 110, 208 Woolfe, Leonard, xv in definition of tropics, 28 work capacity, 56 photoperiod, 120 workloads, seasonal variation, 56-9, 60, wheat (q.v.) 238, Figure 3.2 wives, see women World Bank, 202 women as seasonal migrants, 59, 136 yams, 74 bias against, 22 yields, see crop yields discrimination against, 45, ;6, 58, 64, winter effect of continentality, 82

130, 221-2

effects of seasonal migration, 59, 136, 148 employment, 118, 245 farmers, 54, 60, 107, 114 lactating, 47, 52, 295 (n.7) pregnancy, 47, 295 (n.7) self deprivation, 67 sexual harassment, 45 social burdens, 148, 149 social status, 45, 130, 149 special nutritional needs, 57, 295 (n.,,)

Zaire, 93 Zambia, 210 Zanzibar (Tanzania), Figure 2.2 zenithal sun, 28, 38, Figure 2.3 'zero marginal product of labour' theory, 6, 19, 132 zero tillage, 124, 239 Zimbabwe, 205 ^u/oasi peoples, 70-3, 74, Figures 3.5, 3.6

343