Japan and China in the World Political Economy
7ZR SRZHUV LQ (DVW $VLD WRGD\ VWDQG WR GHÀQH WKH UHJLRQ·V HFRQRPLF DQG FRPPHUFLDOIXWXUH-DSDQZKLFKURVHLQDVSHFWDFXODULQGXVWULDOEXUVWWREHFRPH DW SUHVHQW WKH ZRUOG·V VHFRQG ODUJHVW HFRQRP\ DQG &KLQD ZKLFK LV UDSLGO\ DGYDQFLQJWRZDUGDPDUNHWHFRQRP\XQGHUWKHZDWFKIXOH\HRIWKHZRUOG :KLOHPXFKKDVEHHQPDGHRI-DSDQDQG&KLQD·VSDUWLFXODUHFRQRPLFLQVWLWXWLRQV DQG GHYHORSPHQWDO SDWKV IHZ ZRUNV DQDO\]H WKHP LQ D FRPSDUDWLYH IUDPHZRUNJapan and China in the World Political EconomyZKLFKIRFXVHVRQ WKHSHULRGIURPWKHVWRWKHRQVHWRIWKHVUHYLHZVWKHH[SHULHQFHVRI -DSDQDQG&KLQDDFURVVWKHDUHDVRIGHYHORSPHQWWUDGHLQYHVWPHQWÀQDQFHDQG WHFKQRORJ\'UDZLQJRQDFRPELQDWLRQRIRIÀFLDOGRFXPHQWVHFRQRPLFVWDWLVWLFV FDVHVWXGLHVDQGRULJLQDOÀHOGZRUNWKLVERRNZLOOJLYHSROLWLFDOVFLHQWLVWVSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLVWVEXVLQHVVFRQFHUQVDQGSROLF\DQDO\VWVDÀUPHUJUDVSRIWKHUROH -DSDQDQG&KLQDVWDQGWRSOD\LQWKHZRUOGSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\ Saadia M. Pekkanen LV-REDQG*HUWUXG7DPDNL3URIHVVRU-DFNVRQ6FKRRORI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WXGLHVDQG$GMXQFW3URIHVVRU6FKRRORI/DZDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI :DVKLQJWRQ86$ Kellee S. Tsai LV $VVLVWDQW 3URIHVVRU RI 3ROLWLFDO 6FLHQFH DW -RKQV +RSNLQV 8QLYHUVLW\86$
Politics in Asia series )RUPHUO\HGLWHGE\0LFKDHO/HLIHU London School of Economics
ASEAN and the Security of SouthEast Asia Michael Leifer
Communitarian Ideology and Democracy in Singapore Beng-Huat Chua
China’s Policy Towards Territorial Disputes 7KHFDVHRIWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HD LVODQGV Chi-kin Lo
The Challenge of Democracy in Nepal Louise Brown
India and Southeast Asia ,QGLDQSHUFHSWLRQVDQGSROLFLHV Mohammed Ayoob Gorbachev and Southeast Asia Leszek Buszynski Indonesian Politics under Suharto 2UGHUGHYHORSPHQWDQGSUHVVXUHIRU FKDQJH Michael R. J. Vatikiotis The State and Ethnic Politics in Southeast Asia David Brown The Politics of Nation Building and Citizenship in Singapore Michael Hill and Lian Kwen Fee Politics in Indonesia 'HPRFUDF\,VODPDQGWKHLGHRORJ\RI WROHUDQFH Douglas E. Ramage
Japan’s Asia Policy Wolf Mendl The International Politics of the $VLD3DFLÀF² Michael Yahuda Political Change in Southeast Asia 7ULPPLQJWKHEDQ\DQWUHH Michael R. J. Vatikiotis Hong Kong &KLQD·VFKDOOHQJH Michael Yahuda Korea Versus Korea $FDVHRIFRQWHVWHGOHJLWLPDF\ B. K. Gills Taiwan and Chinese Nationalism 1DWLRQDOLGHQWLW\DQGVWDWXVLQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOVRFLHW\ Christopher Hughes
iii Managing Political Change in Singapore 7KHHOHFWHGSUHVLGHQF\ Kevin Y. L. Tan and Lam Peng Er Islam in Malaysian Foreign Policy Shanti Nair Political Change in Thailand 'HPRFUDF\DQGSDUWLFLSDWLRQ Kevin Hewison The Politics of NGOs in Southeast Asia 3DUWLFLSDWLRQDQGSURWHVWLQWKH 3KLOLSSLQHV Gerard Clarke Malaysian Politics Under Mahathir R. S. Milne and Diane K. Mauzy
Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia $6($1DQGWKHSUREOHPRIUHJLRQDO order Amitav Acharya Monarchy in South East Asia 7KHIDFHVRIWUDGLWLRQLQWUDQVLWLRQ Roger Kershaw Korea After the Crash 7KHSROLWLFVRIHFRQRPLFUHFRYHU\ Brian Bridges The Future of North Korea Edited by Tsuneo Akaha The International Relations of Japan and South East Asia )RUJLQJDQHZUHJLRQDOLVP Sueo Sudo
Indonesia and China 7KHSROLWLFVRIDWURXEOHGUHODWLRQVKLS Rizal Sukma
Power and Change in Central Asia Edited by Sally N. Cummings
Arming the Two Koreas 6WDWHFDSLWDODQGPLOLWDU\SRZHU Taik-young Hamm
The Politics of Human Rights in Southeast Asia Philip Eldridge
Engaging China 7KHPDQDJHPHQWRIDQHPHUJLQJ power Edited by Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross
Political Business in East Asia Edited by Edmund Terence Gomez
Singapore’s Foreign Policy &RSLQJZLWKYXOQHUDELOLW\ Michael Leifer Philippine Politics and Society in the Twentieth Century &RORQLDOOHJDFLHVSRVWFRORQLDO WUDMHFWRULHV Eva-Lotta E. Hedman and John T. Sidel
Singapore Politics under the People’s Action Party Diane K. Mauzy and R. S. Milne 0HGLDDQG3ROLWLFVLQ3DFLÀF$VLD Duncan McCargo Japanese Governance %H\RQG-DSDQ,QF Edited by Jennifer Amyx and Peter Drysdale
iv China and the Internet 3ROLWLFVRIWKHGLJLWDOOHDSIRUZDUG Edited by Christopher R. Hughes and Gudrun Wacker Challenging Authoritarianism in Southeast Asia &RPSDULQJ,QGRQHVLDDQG0DOD\VLD Edited by Ariel Heryanto and Sumit K. Mandal Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF Ralf Emmers Islam in Indonesian Foreign Policy Rizal Sukma 0HGLD:DUDQG7HUURULVP 5HVSRQVHVIURPWKH0LGGOH(DVWDQG Asia Edited by Peter Van der Veer and Shoma Munshi &KLQD$UPV&RQWURODQG Nonproliferation Wendy Frieman Communitarian Politics in Asia Edited by Chua Beng Huat (DVW7LPRU$XVWUDOLDDQG5HJLRQDO Order ,QWHUYHQWLRQDQGLWVDIWHUPDWKLQ 6RXWKHDVW$VLD James Cotton 'RPHVWLF3ROLWLFV,QWHUQDWLRQDO Bargaining and China’s Territorial Disputes Chien-peng Chung
Democratic Development in East Asia Becky Shelley International Politics of the Asia3DFLÀFVLQFH Michael Yahuda Asian States %H\RQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOSHUVSHFWLYH Edited by Richard Boyd and Tak-Wing Ngo &LYLO/LIH*OREDOL]DWLRQDQG Political Change in Asia 2UJDQL]LQJEHWZHHQIDPLO\DQGVWDWH Edited by Robert P. Weller Realism and Interdependence in Singapore’s Foreign Policy Narayanan Ganesan Party Politics in Taiwan 3DUW\FKDQJHDQGWKHGHPRFUDWLF HYROXWLRQRI7DLZDQ² Dafydd Fell State Terrorism and Political Identity in Indonesia )DWDOO\EHORQJLQJ Ariel Heryanto &KLQD·V5LVH7DLZDQ·V'LOHPPDV and International Peace Edited by Edward Friedman Japan and China in the World Political Economy Edited by Saadia M. Pekkanen and Kellee S. Tsai
Japan and China in the World Political Economy
Edited by Saadia M. Pekkhanen and Kellee S. Tsai Foreword by Ezra F. Vogel
)LUVWSXEOLVKHG E\5RXWOHGJH 3DUN6TXDUH0LOWRQ3DUN$ELQJGRQ2[RQ2;51 6LPXOWDQHRXVO\SXEOLVKHGLQWKH86$DQG&DQDGD E\5RXWOHGJH 0DGLVRQ$YH1HZ
“To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG1RSDUWRIWKLVERRNPD\EHUHSULQWHGRUUHSURGXFHGRU XWLOLVHGLQDQ\IRUPRUE\DQ\HOHFWURQLFPHFKDQLFDORURWKHUPHDQVQRZ NQRZQRUKHUHDIWHULQYHQWHGLQFOXGLQJSKRWRFRS\LQJDQGUHFRUGLQJRULQ DQ\LQIRUPDWLRQVWRUDJHRUUHWULHYDOV\VWHPZLWKRXWSHUPLVVLRQLQZULWLQJ IURPWKHSXEOLVKHUV British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data $FDWDORJXHUHFRUGIRUWKLVERRNLVDYDLODEOHIURPWKH%ULWLVK/LEUDU\ Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data -DSDQDQG&KLQDLQWKHZRUOGSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\HGLWHGE\6DDGLD0 3HNNDQHQDQG.HOOHH67VDL SFP²3ROLWLFVLQ$VLDVHULHV ,QFOXGHVELEOLRJUDSKLFDOUHIHUHQFHVDQGLQGH[ )UHHWUDGH²-DSDQ)UHHHQWHUSULVH²-DSDQ-DSDQ²(FRQRPLF SROLF\²²-DSDQ²(FRQRPLFSROLF\²²-DSDQ ²(FRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV²²-DSDQ²(FRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV ²²-DSDQ²)RUHLJQHFRQRPLFUHODWLRQV)UHHWUDGH²&KLQD )UHHHQWHUSULVH²&KLQD&KLQD²(FRQRPLFSROLF\²² &KLQD²(FRQRPLFSROLF\²²&KLQD²(FRQRPLF FRQGLWLRQV²²&KLQD²(FRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV²² &KLQD²)RUHLJQHFRQRPLFUHODWLRQV,3HNNDQHQ6DDGLD0,, 7VDL.HOOHH6,,,6HULHV +)- ²GF ,6%1²²² (Print Edition)
For Robert and Sophia; and for Davis and Felix
Contents
List of illustrations Contributors List of abbreviations Acknowledgments
[i [iii [YLi [[L
Foreword: patterns of late development and the origins of
late liberalization
(=5$)92*(/
,QWURGXFWLRQ: late liberalizers: comparative perspectives on Japan
and China
6$$',$03(..$1(1$1'.(//((676$I
DEVELOPMENT
2
Revisiting the Japanese economic model
7-3(03(/
3
Developmental dilemmas in China: socialist transition and late liberalization
.(//((676$,$1'6$5$+&22.
TRADE
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics
6$$',$03(..$1(N
7KHLQVWLWXWLRQDOSROLWLFDODQGJOREDOIRXQGDWLRQVRI&KLQD·V trade liberalization 0$5*$5(703($562N
[ Contents INVESTMENT
6
From iron doors to paper screens: the Japanese state and multinational investment
0,5(<$62/,6
7
A catch-up strategy? China’s policy toward foreign direct investment
<,)(1*7$O
FINANCE
8
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFs: institutional challenges toward and against liberalization
6$25,1.$7$'A
Supporting sunset sectors: tKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPLQ&KLQD·VHFRQRPLF development .$-$6(+5T
TECHNOLOGY
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations
0$5,($1&+25'2*8<
Chinese technonationalism: autonomy and security in the world economy
$'$06(*$/
References Index
Illustrations
Figures $VVHVVLQJWKH)',GHÀFLWEDVHGRQEDODQFHRISD\PHQWVVWDWLVWLFV )',RXWÁRZVIURP/'&V %DQNORDQVWRPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGUHDOHVWDWHVHFWRUV²
Tables
2SHUDWLRQDOPHDVXUHVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQE\FDWHJRU\ .H\SROLWLFDOHOHPHQWVRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH 2XWFRPHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH 86ELODWHUDOWUDGHZLWKVHOHFWHG(DVW$VLDQFRXQWULHV &RQWULEXWLRQWR*'3E\VHFWRU &RQWULEXWLRQWRLQGXVWULDORXWSXWE\RZQHUVKLSW\SH 6XPPDU\RISRVW&KLQD·VSROLF\REMHFWLYHV YHUVXVRXWFRPHV :72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWFDVHVLQYROYLQJ-DSDQ² -DSDQHVH)',ÁRZV²VHOHFWHGVHFWRUV -DSDQ·VODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI)', )',LQÁRZVWRGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQWKHV )',JURZWKLQ&KLQD 7RSVHYHQFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQIRU)',LQÁRZVWR &KLQD² 7KHJHRJUDSKLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI)',LQ&KLQD² 7KHVHFWRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI)',LQ&KLQD² 7KHVHFWRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI)',LQ&KLQD² 7KHUROHRI)',LQ&KLQD·VWUDGH² &RPSDULVRQRIIRXUGHYHORSPHQWPRGHOV KeiretsuDVVRXUFHVRIÀQDQFHIRUPHPEHUFRUSRUDWLRQV DQG )RUHLJQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH7RN\R6WRFN([FKDQJH² 5HVWUXFWXULQJRIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVVLQFH
² ² ²
[LL Illustrations 6KDUHRIEDQNORDQVWRQRQVWDWHVHFWRU² *RYHUQPHQWVXSSRUWIRUDJULFXOWXUHYLDWKHEDQNLQJ V\VWHP² &URVVSURYLQFLDOYDULDWLRQLQHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQG ÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPLQGLFDWRUV²
Contributors
Marie Anchordoguy $VVRFLDWH3URIHVVRU +HQU\0-DFNVRQ6FKRRORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WXGLHV 8QLYHUVLW\RI:DVKLQJWRQ 32%R[ 6HDWWOH:$ 86$ DQFKRU#XZDVKLQJWRQHGX Sarah Cook )HOORZ,QVWLWXWHRI'HYHORSPHQW6WXGLHV 8QLYHUVLW\RI6XVVH[ (DVW6XVVH[%15( 8. VEFRRN#LGVDFXN Saori N. Katada $VVRFLDWH3URIHVVRU 6FKRRORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HODWLRQV 8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWKHUQ&DOLIRUQLD 9.& /RV$QJHOHV&$ 86$ VNDWDGD#XVFHGX Margaret M. Pearson 'HSDUWPHQWRI*RYHUQPHQWDQG3ROLWLFV 7\GLQJV+DOO &ROOHJH3DUN0' 86$ PSHDUVRQ#JYSWXPGHGX
[LY Contributors Saadia M. Pekkanen -REDQG*HUWUXG7DPDNL3URIHVVRU-DFNVRQ6FKRRORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WXGLHV $GMXQFW3URIHVVRU6FKRRORI/DZ 8QLYHUVLW\RI:DVKLQJWRQ 32%R[ 6HDWWOH:$ 86$ VPS#XZDVKLQJWRQHGX T. J. Pempel 'LUHFWRU,QVWLWXWHRI(DVW$VLDQ6WXGLHV 3URIHVVRU'HSDUWPHQWRI3ROLWLFDO6FLHQFH 8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD%HUNHOH\ %HUNHOH\&$ 86$ SHPSHO#VRFUDWHVEHUNHOH\HGX Adam Segal 0DXULFH5*UHHQEHUJ6HQLRU)HOORZLQ&KLQD6WXGLHV &RXQFLORQ)RUHLJQ5HODWLRQV (DVWWK6WUHHW 1HZ
Contributors [Y Yi-Feng Tao $VVLVWDQW3URIHVVRU 'HSDUWPHQWRI3ROLWLFDO6FLHQFH 1DWLRQDO7DLZDQ8QLYHUVLW\ ;X]KRX5RDG7DLSHL Taiwan \IWDR#QWXHGXWZ Kellee S. Tsai $VVLVWDQW3URIHVVRU 'HSDUWPHQWRI3ROLWLFDO6FLHQFH 1RUWK&KDUOHV6WUHHW -RKQV+RSNLQV8QLYHUVLW\ %DOWLPRUH0' 86$ NWVDL#MKXHGX Ezra F. Vogel +HQU\)RUG,,5HVHDUFK3URIHVVRURIWKH6RFLDO6FLHQFHV $VLD&HQWHUDQG)DLUEDQN&HQWHU 0DVVDFKXVHWWV$YHQXH +DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\ &DPEULGJH0$ 86$ HIYRJHO#IDVKDUYDUGHGX
Abbreviations
$%& $'%& $/23 $6($1 $7 7 %,6 %2& %2&20 &$$6 &$6 &&% &&3 &,7,& &5 '6 '68 (& ('= (2, )', )(&/ )(/ ))68(( ))<3 ),( ),/ ),/3 ),1' )25(; )5& )6$ )6X$
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
[YLLL Abbreviations )7& *$77 *'3 */) *13 +56 ,%- ,&%& ,(% ,)& ,)', ,0) ,3$ ,33& ,360 ,6, -(&& -(752 -)7& -*% -9/ .07 /$1 /'& /'3 /7&% 0$)) 0(7, 0)$ 0)1 0,7, 01& 02) 02)$ 02)7(& 0266 0267 03+37 037 1(& 1,& 1,(
IRUHLJQWUDGHFRUSRUDWLRQ *HQHUDO$JUHHPHQWRQ7DULIIVDQG7UDGH JURVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFW *UHDW/HDS)RUZDUG JURVVQDWLRQDOSURGXFW +RXVHKROG5HVSRQVLELOLW\6\VWHP ,QGXVWULDO%DQNRI-DSDQ ,QGXVWULDODQG&RPPHUFLDO%DQNRI&KLQD LPSRUW²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²-DSDQ 0XOWLÀEHU$UUDQJHPHQW PRVWIDYRUHGQDWLRQWUDGHVWDWXV 0LQLVWU\RI,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG,QGXVWU\QRZ0(7, ²-DSDQ PXOWLQDWLRQDOFRUSRUDWLRQ 0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH²-DSDQDQG&KLQD 0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ$IIDLUV²-DSDQ 0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ7UDGHDQG(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQ²&KLQD 0DUNHWRULHQWHG6HFWRUVSHFLÀF7DONV 0LQLVWU\RI6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\ 0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF0DQDJHPHQW+RPH$IIDLUV3RVWDQG 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV 0LQLVWU\RI3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV 1LSSRQ(OHFWULF&RPSDQ\ QHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWU\ QHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGHFRQRP\
Abbreviations [L[ 13& 13/ 15'& 17% 175 177 2(&' 2)', 26 3%& 3175 35& 6 7 6'% 6'3& 6(& 6(7& 6(= 6,, 62( 636 66% 667& 79( 81&7$' 8675 9$7 9(5 9,( :$3, :/$1 :72
1DWLRQDO3HRSOH·V&RQJUHVV²&KLQD QRQSHUIRUPLQJORDQ 1DWLRQDO5HIRUPDQG'HYHORSPHQW&RPPLVVLRQ QRQWDULIIEDUULHU QRUPDOWUDGLQJUHODWLRQV 1LSSRQ7HOHJUDSKDQG7HOHSKRQH 2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQDQG'HYHORSPHQW RXWZDUGIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW RSHUDWLQJV\VWHP 3HRSOH·V%DQNRI&KLQD 3HUPDQHQW1RUPDO7UDGLQJ5HODWLRQV 3HRSOH·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
Acknowledgments
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both -DSDQ DQG &KLQD LQVSLUHG RXU FROODERUDWLRQDQGKLVVXSSRUWRIRXUDFDGHPLFHQGHDYRUVJDYHXVWKHLQWHOOHFWXDO FRXUDJHWRXQGHUWDNHVXFKDQDPELWLRXVSURMHFW 8OWLPDWHO\WKLVYROXPHZRXOGQRWH[LVWZLWKRXWWKHFRQWULEXWLQJDXWKRUV:H WKDQNWKHPIRUWKHLUYDOXDEOHFRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHSURMHFWDVDZKROHLQFOXGLQJ PHHWLQJRXUGHDGOLQHVDORQJWKHZD\RIIHULQJWKRXJKWIXOFRPPHQWVRQFRXQWHUSDUWSDSHUVDQGDWWHQGLQJDODWHQLJKWZRUNVKRSWKDWZHKHOGLQ:DVKLQJWRQ'&LQ 0DUFK7KH-DSDQ²86)ULHQGVKLS&RPPLVVLRQ-86)& DQG-RKQV+RSNLQV .ULHJHU6FKRRORI$UWVDQG6FLHQFHVDQG'HSDUWPHQWRI3ROLWLFDO6FLHQFHJHQHURXVO\ SURYLGHG XV ZLWK ÀQDQFLDO VXSSRUW 0DUWLQ +HULQJ DQG 9HUD =DPERQHOOL VHUYHGHIIHFWLYHO\DVUDSSRUWHXUVIRUWKHZRUNVKRS/LQGD%RRVNDDQG&RUL/RHZ SURYLGHGH[SHUWKHOSLQFROODWLQJWKHPDQXVFULSW5HQQ\%DELDU]GHVHUYHVFUHGLW IRUFRPSLOLQJWKHLQGH[ZLWKFDUHDQGXQGHUWLPHSUHVVXUH$QGÀQDOO\ZHWKDQN 0HUOH *ROGPDQ 'DYLG *RRGPDQ 6WHSKDQLH 5RJHUV +HOHQ %DNHU DQG +HOHQ 0DF'RQDOGIRUWKHLUVXSSRUWRIWKLVSURMHFWDWYDULRXVVWDJHVRIWKHSXEOLFDWLRQ SURFHVV
Foreword 3DWWHUQVRIODWHGHYHORSPHQWDQGWKH RULJLQVRIODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ Ezra F. Vogel
,QWKLVSLRQHHULQJYROXPHSDLUHGVSHFLDOLVWVRQ-DSDQDQG&KLQDH[DPLQHKRZ NH\ VHFWRUV LQ WKHVH WZR ´ODWH OLEHUDOL]HUVµ DUH UHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH KHLJKWHQHG SUHVVXUHVRIJOREDOL]DWLRQIURPPDUNHWVLQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLWLFDODQGWUDGHUHJLPHV DQGGRPLQDQWHFRQRPLFWKHRULHV7KHHGLWRUVGDWH&KLQD·VOLEHUDOL]DWLRQIURPWKH ODWHVZKHQ'HQJ;LDRSLQJWRRNWKHKHOPDIWHU0DR·VGHDWKDQGLQLWLDWHG D QHZ SROLF\ RI UHIRUP DQG RSHQLQJ 7KH\ GDWH -DSDQ·V GHHSHU FRPPLWPHQW WR OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ IURP WKH HQG RI WKH V ZKHQ WKH EXEEOH LQ WKH HFRQRP\ EXUVWDQGOHDGHUVKDGWRIDFHQHZUHDOLWLHV7KHLUJRDOLVWRH[SORUHWKHSROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ RI ´ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQµ LQ -DSDQ DQG &KLQD ZKLFK IRFXVHV DWWHQWLRQ RQWKHZD\VWDWHVDUHDGDSWLQJWRWKHKHJHPRQLFSUHVVXUHVRIQHROLEHUDOLVPDW WKHVWDUWRIWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\,QWKLVIRUHZRUG,DLPWRSURYLGHDFRQWH[W IRUWKHVWXGLHVZKLFKIROORZE\WUDFLQJWKHWZRFRXQWULHV·GLIIHUHQWSDWKVWRODWH GHYHORSPHQWDQGWKHRULJLQVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZKLFKVKDSHGKRZWKH\DSSURDFKHG ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ
'HYHORSPHQWSODQQLQJYHUVXV Japan ,QWKHPLGGOHRIWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\LQDQHDUOLHUVWDJHRIJOREDOL]DWLRQZKHQ :HVWHUQQDWLRQVXVHGPLOLWDU\IRUFHWRGHPDQGWKDW$VLDQQDWLRQVRSHQWRWUDGH DQGWRFUHDWHDWKUHDWRIFRORQL]DWLRQ-DSDQZDVDEOHWRXQLWHTXLFNO\DQGGHYHORS WKHLQGXVWULDODQGPLOLWDU\VWUHQJWKWRDYRLGFRORQL]DWLRQ&KLQDZDVQRW 7KHEHJLQQLQJRI-DSDQ·VGHYHORSPHQWSODQQLQJFDQEHGDWHGIURPZKHQ WKH,ZDNXUD0LVVLRQUHWXUQHGIURPLWVZRUOGVWXG\WRXU$VVRRQDV0HLMLOHDGHUVIRUPHGWKHLUJRYHUQPHQWLQWKH\KDGEHJXQSODQQLQJIRUWKH,ZDNXUD 0LVVLRQ²WRVWXG\WKHPRUHGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVRIWKHZRUOG.H\\RXQJ RIÀFLDOVVHOHFWHGIURPHDFKPDMRUEUDQFKRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWVSHQWWZHQW\RQH PRQWKVRQDWULSWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV(XURSHDQG$VLDQFRXQWULHVWRVWXG\PRGHUQ JRYHUQPHQW LQGXVWU\ WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ ÀQDQFH HGXFDWLRQ DQG FXOWXUH$IWHU UHWXUQLQJWKH\EHJDQSODQQLQJWKHVWUXFWXUHVDQGSURJUDPVQHFHVVDU\WRPRGHUQL]HLQHDFKÀHOG,QPDQ\DUHDVWRGHYHORSPRUHVSHFLÀFSODQVWKHJRYHUQPHQW VSRQVRUHGVSHFLDOL]HGVWXG\WRXUVDQGKLUHGIRUHLJQH[SHUWVWRFRPHWR-DSDQ,W
Vogel WRRNVHYHUDOGHFDGHVWRDEROLVKIHXGDOFODVVHVUHSODFHIHXGDOFODQVZLWKFHQWUDOO\ OHGSUHIHFWXUHVZULWHDFRQVWLWXWLRQIRUPDPRGHUQJRYHUQPHQWDQGOHJDOV\VWHP HVWDEOLVKXQLYHUVLWLHVDQGDQDWLRQDOV\VWHPRIFRPSXOVRU\HGXFDWLRQDQGLQWURGXFHRWKHULQVWLWXWLRQVWRVXSSRUWHFRQRPLFJURZWK 7RFDWFKXSOLNH(XURSHDQODWHGHYHORSHUVVXFKDV*HUPDQ\-DSDQDGRSWHGD V\VWHPZLWKPRUHFHQWUDOL]HGJRYHUQPHQWDOHGXFDWLRQDODQGVFLHQWLÀ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
Foreword
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´V\VWHPµRIJRYHUQPHQW²EXVLQHVVFRRSHUDWLRQLQHDFKVHFWRUEURXJKWDKLJKHUOHYHORIEXUHDXFUDWLF OHDGHUVKLSRYHUWKHHFRQRP\DQGSURYLGHGDIUDPHZRUNIRUJXLGLQJWKHSRVWZDU HFRQRP\HYHQWKRXJKWKHFRQWUROVZHUHORRVHQHGDQGLQGXVWULDOSODQWVSURGXFLQJ ZDUPDNLQJHTXLSPHQWZHUHGLVPDQWOHG:LWKWKHWUXVWEXVWLQJLQWKH2FFXSDWLRQ DIWHU:RUOG:DU,,WKHzaibatsuKROGLQJFRPSDQLHVZHUHDEROLVKHGDOWKRXJKWKH UHODWHGÀUPVPDLQWDLQHGDORRVHDIÀOLDWLRQXQGHUOHVVFHQWUDOL]HGOHDGHUVKLSWKDQ EHIRUHDQGVWLOORIWHQFRRSHUDWHGZLWKHDFKRWKHU %\ DV WKH SRVWZDU HFRQRPLF VWUXFWXUH WRRN VKDSH PDQ\ IHDWXUHV RI WKH ´ V\VWHPµ UHPDLQHG VHFWRUDO DVVRFLDWLRQV ZLWK JRYHUQPHQW²EXVLQHVV FRRSHUDWLRQVRFRPSDQLHVFRXOGDFTXLUHWKHFDSDFLW\WRH[SDQGDQGFRPSHWHLQ FUXFLDOVHFWRUVDQGSULRULW\ÀQDQFLQJWRVXSSRUWWKHSODQQLQJ7KHJRYHUQPHQW HVWDEOLVKHGLPSRUWFRQWUROVIRUSURGXFWVUHJDUGHGDVLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHIXWXUHDQG LWHVWDEOLVKHGEDUULHUVWKDWPDGHLWGLIÀFXOWIRUIRUHLJQFDSLWDORUIRUHLJQRZQHG FRPSDQLHVWRJDLQDGHHSIRRWKROGLQ-DSDQ:LWKWKLVVWUXFWXUHIURPXQWLO WKHÀUVWRLOVKRFNLQWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\JUHZIDUPRUHUDSLGO\WKDQDQ\ HFRQRP\KDGHYHUJURZQEHIRUH7KH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\FRQWLQXHGJURZLQJLQ WKHVHQDEOLQJDFURZGHGFRXQWU\ZLWKDSK\VLFDOVSDFHWKHVL]HRI0RQWDQD WREHFRPHWKHVHFRQGODUJHVWHFRQRP\LQWKHZRUOGDQGWRWKUHDWHQ86LQGXVWU\ HYHQLQVHFWRUVVXFKDVDXWRPRELOHVDQGKLJKWHFKQRORJ\ China ,QWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\DQGWKHÀUVWKDOIRIWKHWZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\&KLQDQHYHU DFKLHYHGWKHSROLWLFDOXQLW\WRGHYHORSWKHLQVWLWXWLRQVUHTXLUHGIRUPRGHUQL]DWLRQ 7KHGLVLQWHJUDWLRQRIQDWLRQDOSRZHUDQGWKHLQDELOLW\RIWKHQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQW WRSURYLGHVHFXULW\FDXVHGSHRSOHRIZHDOWKWRDYRLGLQYHVWLQJLQPRGHUQLQGXVWU\ H[FHSWLQWKHVDIHUIRUHLJQHQFODYHV,QWKHVHHQFODYHVWKH´WUHDW\SRUWVµWKHUH ZDVDKLJKOHYHORIFRPPHUFHDQGVRPHK\EULGRUJDQL]DWLRQV8QGHU-DSDQHVH RFFXSDWLRQ RI 0DQFKXULD IURP WR FRQVLGHUDEOH LQGXVWU\ DQG VRPH PRGHUQLQVWLWXWLRQVZHUHLQWURGXFHGEXWWKHQDWLRQDVDZKROHZDVIDUIURPEHLQJ UHDG\IRUHFRQRPLFWDNHRII &KLQD·VODWHGHYHORSPHQWPD\EHGDWHGIURPZKHQWKH)LUVW)LYH
Vogel VWURQJHULQWKHODWHVLQWKHFLYLOZDUDJDLQVWWKH1DWLRQDOLVWVDQGLQ DIWHUWKH&RPPXQLVWVHVWDEOLVKHGWKHLUJRYHUQPHQWLQ%HLMLQJWKHOHDGHUVWXUQHG WRWKH6RYLHW8QLRQDVWKHPRGHODQGWKHVRXUFHRIDVVLVWDQFHIRUGHYHORSPHQW$V DUHVXOWRIWKH.RUHDQ:DU&KLQHVHUHODWLRQVZLWKWKHQRQ&RPPXQLVWZRUOGZHUH HVVHQWLDOO\FXWRII:KHQWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWEHJDQLWVFRXUVHRIGHYHORSPHQWZLWKWKH))<3RIDQGVRFLDOLVWWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRI²WKH&ROG :DUZDVLQIXOOVZLQJ&KLQD·VUHODWLRQVZLWKWKH´IUHHZRUOGµZHUHYLUWXDOO\FXW RIIDQGLWVSODQVIRUGHYHORSPHQWZHUHPRGHOHGRQWKH6RYLHW8QLRQ·V 3ULYDWH EXVLQHVVHV ZHUH HVVHQWLDOO\ DEROLVKHG LQ ²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ÀQDQFHRQDSULRULW\EDVLVWRWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWHQWHUSULVHVVRWKDWWKH\ FRXOGPHHWWKHLUTXRWDV 7KH V\VWHP ZDV EDGO\ GLVUXSWHG GXULQJ WKH *UHDW /HDS )RUZDUG ² ZKHQ0DRWULHGWRPRELOL]HWKHSRSXODWLRQDQGVSHHGXSSURGXFWLRQWROHYHOVWKDW SURYHGXQUHDOLVWLFDQGWKH&XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ²ZKHQKLJKOHYHORIÀFLDOVLQWKH&RPPXQLVW3DUW\DQGJRYHUQPHQWZHUHXQGHUDWWDFN(YHQIDFWRULHV VSRQVRUHGE\WKH6RYLHW8QLRQZHUHIDUEHKLQGZRUOGOHYHOV5LJLGLWLHVLQSODQQLQJ DOORZHGOLWWOHURRPIRUORFDOLQLWLDWLYHDQGLQFHQWLYHVIRUHIÀFLHQF\ZHUHDEVHQW 7RHQVXUHWKDWWKH\KDGPDWHULDOVQHHGHGIRUSURGXFWLRQVRPHIDFWRULHVKRDUGHG JRRGV 0DQ\ JRRGV SURGXFHG ZHUH QRW XVDEOH
The historical legacies: democratic constraints versus democratic centralism :KHQ -DSDQ EHJDQ LWV ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKH ODWH V LW KDG D SHU FDSLWD LQFRPHRIRYHU86&KLQDDWWKHVDPHWLPHGHVSLWHUDSLGJURZWKVLQFH VWLOO KDG D SHU FDSLWD LQFRPH RI OHVV WKDQ 86 2Q WKH HYH RI ODWH
Foreword
OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ -DSDQ KDG D PRGHUQ HFRQRP\ OLQNHG WR JOREDO PDUNHWV ZKHUHDV &KLQDRQWKHHYHRIODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDGDEDFNZDUGHFRQRP\JHDUHGDWEHVW WRWUDGHZLWKLQWKH6RYLHWEORF7KHPDMRUIHDWXUHVRIWKHWZRQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLF VWUXFWXUHVZHUHDVIROORZV Business–government cooperation versus government ownership and operation ,Q-DSDQDVDUHVXOWRIWKHOHJDF\RIWKHV\VWHPDQGLWVSRVWZDUDGDSWDWLRQV WKHUH H[LVWHG D VRSKLVWLFDWHG SDUWQHUVKLS EHWZHHQ JRYHUQPHQW DQG EXVLQHVV WKDW FRPELQHG SULYDWH VHFWRU HQWUHSUHQHXULDO WDOHQW DQG GULYH ZLWK JRYHUQPHQW FRRSHUDWLRQ DQG JXLGDQFH &KLQD·V ODUJH HQWHUSULVHV ZHUH VWDWH RZQHG DQG RSHUDWHGDQGHYHQWKHFRRSHUDWLYHVWUXFWXUHDWORZHUOHYHOVSURYLGHGOLWWOHOHHZD\ IRU DGDSWLQJ WR FLUFXPVWDQFHV ,QGLYLGXDO &KLQHVH HQWHUSULVHV GLG QRW KDYH WKH DXWRQRP\WRWDNHPHDQLQJIXOLQLWLDWLYHVWRSHUIRUPDWKLJKOHYHOVRIHIÀFLHQF\RU WDNHDGYDQWDJHRIPDUNHWRSSRUWXQLWLHV Indicative planning versus socialist planning ,Q ZKHQ -DSDQHVH OHDGHUV IHOW WKHLU NH\ HFRQRPLF WDVN KDG PRYHG IURP VWDELOL]LQJWKHHFRQRP\DQGSUHYHQWLQJLQÁDWLRQWRJURZWKWKH\HVWDEOLVKHGWKH (FRQRPLF 3ODQQLQJ $JHQF\ (3$ 7KH (3$ FROOHFWHG VWDWLVWLFV IURP YDULRXV VHFWRUVRQSURGXFWLRQDQGXVHGLQSXW²RXWSXWPRGHOVWRHVWLPDWHWKHDPRXQWRI LQSXWVUHTXLUHGWRDFKLHYHJURZWKLQYDULRXVVHFWRUV7KLVHQDEOHGHQWUHSUHQHXUVWR DQWLFLSDWHZKDWZDVUHTXLUHGIRUWKHQH[WVWDJHRIGHYHORSPHQWDQGWRUHGXFHWKHLU ULVNVZKHQLQYHVWLQJIRUIXWXUHJURZWK*RYHUQPHQWLQIUDVWUXFWXUDOGHYHORSPHQWV LQWUDQVSRUWDWLRQFRPPXQLFDWLRQDQGHOHFWULFSRZHUZHUHSODQQHGWRPHHWWKH SURMHFWHG UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU IXWXUH JURZWK 7KH DQWLFLSDWLRQ RI IXWXUH JURZWK DOVRHQDEOHGÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVWRLQYHVWLQSULRULW\SURMHFWVZLWKDUHODWLYHO\ ORZOHYHORIULVN%XWWKHPDMRUSDUWRIWKHHFRQRP\ZDVVWLOOLQSULYDWHKDQGV $NLR0RULWDDFRIRXQGHURI6RQ\KDGREVHUYHGWKDWLQFRXQWULHVZKHUHPRGHUQ LQGXVWU\KDGQRWWDNHQRIIWKHEXUHDXFUDF\WHQGHGWREHVRLQHIÀFLHQWDVWRGDPSHQ GHYHORSPHQWEXWWKDWZKHQDFRXQWU\OLNH-DSDQGHYHORSHGZLGHVSUHDGHIÀFLHQF\ LQLQGXVWU\WKHVSLULWRIHIÀFLHQF\IURPWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUWHQGHGWRVSLOORYHULQWR WKHSXEOLFEXUHDXFUDF\ 7KH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWZLWKLWVHODERUDWHSODQQLQJVWUXFWXUHDVVLJQHGSURGXFWLRQWDUJHWVWRHQWHUSULVHVDQGPDGHDQHIIRUWWRVXSSO\WKHHQWHUSULVHVZLWK JRRGVSHRSOHDQGIXQGVQHHGHGWRPHHWWKHWDUJHWV*UDGXDWHVRILQVWLWXWLRQVRI KLJKHUOHDUQLQJZHUHDVVLJQHGWRJRYHUQPHQWRIÀFHVRUVWDWHHQWHUSULVHVDVFDOOHG IRULQWKHSODQV7KHSODQQLQJZDVEXUHDXFUDWLFULJLGDQGLQHIÀFLHQW Democracy versus democratic centralism %\WKHV-DSDQKDGHQMR\HGDIXOO\IXQFWLRQLQJGHPRFUDF\IRUGHFDGHVEXW WKH FRQVHQVXV RQ QDWLRQDO JRDOV KDG EHJXQ WR GLVDSSHDU$V HDUO\ DV WKH 0HLML 3HULRG-DSDQKDGGHYHORSHGDVVHPEOLHVWKH'LHWDQGORFDOJRYHUQPHQWERGLHV
Vogel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ÀWHG HQRUPRXVO\IURPUDSLGJURZWKDQGGHÀQHGWKHLULQWHUHVWVLQWKHLUUROHDVHPSOR\HHVDVZHOODVFRQVXPHUVGLGQRWSUHVVXUHWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRLPSRUWSURGXFWVWR ORZHUFRQVXPHUSULFHVDQGWKXVRIIHUHGQRFRXQWHUZHLJKWWRVSHFLDOL]HGSURGXFHU LQWHUHVWV7KH/LEHUDO'HPRFUDWLF3DUW\ZKLFKFRQWUROOHGWKHJRYHUQPHQWIURP WR KDG SURYLGHG D PHDVXUH RI FRKHUHQFH DQG FRQVLVWHQF\ EXW DIWHU ZKHQLWORVWLWVPDMRULW\LQWKH'LHWWKLVEHFDPHYLUWXDOO\LPSRVVLEOH 7KH GHPRFUDWLF FHQWUDOLVP RI &KLQD WKHRUHWLFDOO\ DOORZHG ORFDO SHRSOH DQG RIÀFLDOVWRH[SUHVVWKHLUYLHZV+RZHYHURQFHYLHZVKDGEHHQIRUZDUGHGWRWKH WRSWKHQWKHWRSKDGWKHSRZHUWRPDNHGHFLVLRQVLQWKHLQWHUHVWRIWKHZKROHDQG SHRSOHEHORZZHUHH[SHFWHGWRIROORZ'XULQJKLVOLIHWLPH0DR=HGRQJGRPLQDWHGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ$IWHU0DR·VGHDWKVWHSVZHUHWDNHQWRSUHYHQWDVLQJOH LQGLYLGXDOIURPGRPLQDWLQJWKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDQGWRHVWDEOLVKVHWSURFHGXUHV IRUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJDOOXQGHUWKHOHDGHUVKLSRIWKH&RPPXQLVW3DUW\+RZHYHU &KLQHVHOHDGHUVVWLOOKDGIDUPRUHOHHZD\WRPDNHGHFLVLRQVIRUWKHFRXQWU\WKDQ -DSDQHVH EXUHDXFUDWLF DQG SROLWLFDO OHDGHUV ZKR ZHUH JUHDWO\ FRQVWUDLQHG E\ LQWHUHVWJURXSVDVZHOODVE\HOHFWLRQV 7KH &KLQHVH &RPPXQLVW 3DUW\ &&3 DOVR FRQWUROOHG WKH PHGLD DQG VHW RXW ´FRUUHFWSROLFLHVµDQG´FRUUHFWLGHDVµWKDWJXLGHGDOOSXEOLFDWLRQVDQGWHOHYLVLRQ 'XULQJWKHHDUO\VWKHUHZDVVRPHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHUDQJHRIDFFHSWDEOHRSLQLRQEXWWKLVZDVDJDLQFRQVWUDLQHGGXULQJWKH&XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ$IWHU0DR·V GHDWKDQGWKHFDSWXUHRIWKH´JDQJRIIRXUµ0DR·VZLIHDQGKHUFORVHVWDVVRFLDWHV WKHUDQJHRISHUPLWWHGSXEOLFGLVFXVVLRQH[SDQGHGEXWWKH&RPPXQLVW3DUW\VWLOO GHÀQHGWKHUDQJHRIDFFHSWDEOHGLVFRXUVH
The origins of liberalization: outside pressure versus domestic disasters Japan ,Q-DSDQORVWLWVFRORQLHVZKLFKKDGVXSSOLHGLWZLWKIRRGDQGRWKHUUDZ PDWHULDOVDQGLWJDLQHGVRPHPLOOLRQSHRSOHZKRUHWXUQHGIURPOLYLQJRYHUVHDV $OO-DSDQHVHNQRZLQJWKDWWKHLUFRXQWU\KDGYLUWXDOO\QRUDZPDWHULDOVDQGQRW
Foreword
HQRXJKIRRGWRIHHGLWVSRSXODWLRQUHDOL]HGWKDW-DSDQKDGWRH[SRUWWRVXUYLYHDQG WKDWLWVRQO\KRSHIRUH[SRUWOD\LQLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWV-DSDQHVHFDUHIXOO\VWXGLHG ZRUOG PDUNHWV WR XQGHUVWDQG LQGXVWULDO FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG WR JDLQ WKH WHFKQRORJ\ DQGPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVUHTXLUHGWRFRPSHWHLQZRUOGPDUNHWV8QWLOWKH$OOLHG 2FFXSDWLRQHQGHGLQLWZRXOGKDYHEHHQHDV\IRUPDQ\IRUHLJQFRPSDQLHV WRHVWDEOLVKEUDQFKHVLQ-DSDQEXWDWWKHWLPHIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVFRQVLGHUHGWKH -DSDQHVHPDUNHWVRVPDOODQGODFNLQJLQSURPLVHWKDWIHZKDGPRYHGWRGRVR -DSDQHVHRIÀFLDOVUHDOL]HGWKDWWRFDWFKXSZLWKWKH:HVWLWZDVFKHDSHUWRVWXG\ IRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\WRWUDLQHQJLQHHUVLQVFLHQFHVRWKDWWKH\FRXOGIROORZZRUOG VFLHQWLÀFGHYHORSPHQWVDQGSRWHQWLDOWHFKQLFDODSSOLFDWLRQVDQGLIQHFHVVDU\WR OLFHQVHIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\WKDQLWZDVWRLQYHVWLQEDVLFVFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\ ,QWKHVIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVKDGORZH[SHFWDWLRQVRIWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQWKH -DSDQHVHPDUNHWDQGRIWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRI-DSDQHVHLQGXVWU\DQGWKHUHIRUH OLFHQVHGWHFKQRORJ\FKHDSO\DQGYRLFHGIHZSURWHVWVDV-DSDQSXWLQSODFHUXOHV DQGSUDFWLFHVWKDWPDGHLWGLIÀFXOWIRUIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVWRHQWHUWKH-DSDQHVH PDUNHW(YHQZLWKDOOWKHHIIRUWVWRUHVWUDLQLPSRUWVEHFDXVH-DSDQHVHLQGXVWU\ ZDVWKHQIDUEHKLQGZRUOGVWDQGDUGVLWZDVQRWXQWLOWZHQW\ÀYH\HDUVDIWHU WKHHQGRI:RUOG:DU,,WKDW-DSDQEHJDQWRKDYHDSRVLWLYHWUDGHEDODQFH (YHQLQWKHVDV-DSDQHVHWH[WLOHVDQGHOHFWURQLFSURGXFWVEHJDQWRRYHUZKHOPFRPSHWLWLRQLQWKH86PDUNHWWKHUHDFWLRQRI86FRPSHWLWRUVZDVQRWWR IRFXVRQRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRHQWHUWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHWZKLFKVWLOOVHHPHGVPDOOEXW WRDVN-DSDQHVHFRPSDQLHVWRUHVWUDLQWKHLUH[SRUWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKHUHDOO\ ODUJHPDUNHW-DSDQHVHRIÀFLDOVDQGEXVLQHVVOHDGHUVUHDOL]HGWKDWLIWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVHQDFWHGOHJLVODWLRQWRFXUE-DSDQHVHLPSRUWVWKH\ZRXOGKDYHQRÁH[LELOLW\ LQ UHVSRQGLQJ DQG WKHUHIRUH -DSDQHVH FRPSDQLHV WKURXJK WKH PHGLDWLRQ RI -DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWRIÀFLDOVDJUHHGWRDFFHSW´YROXQWDU\UHVWUDLQWDJUHHPHQWVµ OLPLWLQJWKHLUH[SRUWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV %\ WKH V DV WKH -DSDQHVH PDUNHW JUHZ 86 PDQXIDFWXUHUV LQ NH\ VHFWRUVVXFKDVDXWRPRELOHVVHPLFRQGXFWRUVDQGFRPSXWHUVFDPHWRUHDOL]HWKDWD SURWHFWHGKRPHPDUNHWJDYH-DSDQHVHFRPSHWLWLRQDQHQRUPRXVDGYDQWDJHDQG WKHUHIRUH86SUHVVXUHVWRIRUFH-DSDQWRUHGXFH´XQIDLUµWUDGHEDUULHUVJUHZ-DSDQ ZDVIRUFHGWRHOLPLQDWHPDQ\RILWVIRUPDOWUDGHEDUULHUV,QPDQ\FRXQWULHVVXFK DVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKHGRPLQDQWHFRQRPLFSKLORVRSK\RIJRYHUQPHQWRIÀFLDOV LVWRSURYLGHDIUHHDQGRSHQPDUNHWZLWKDSSURSULDWHUXOHVDQGOHWFRPSDQLHV FRPSHWH,Q-DSDQEXUHDXFUDWVLQHFRQRPLFPLQLVWULHVKDGWKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRU VHHLQJWKDW-DSDQJUHZDQGFRPSHWHGHIIHFWLYHO\DJDLQVWIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWRUVLQ VHFWRUVZLWKLQWKHLUMXULVGLFWLRQ7KXVRQFHWKHIRUHLJQSUHVVXUHIRURSHQLQJXS WKHPDUNHWVLQFUHDVHGLWZDVVWLOOWKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\RIWKH-DSDQHVHEXUHDXFUDWV LQWKHLUDUHDVWRZRUNZLWK-DSDQHVHFRPSDQLHVWRÀQGLQIRUPDOZD\VWKDWLQIDFW PDGHLWGLIÀFXOWIRUIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVWRSHQHWUDWHWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHW)RUHLJQ JRYHUQPHQWV WKHQ KDG WR ZRUN KDUG WR LGHQWLI\ DQG HOLPLQDWH WKHVH ´QRQWDULII EDUULHUVµ2QFH86RIÀFLDOVLGHQWLÀHGWKHQRQWDULIIEDUULHUVDQGSODFHGSUHVVXUH RQ-DSDQLILWZLVKHGWRUHWDLQDFFHVVWRZRUOGPDUNHWV-DSDQZDVIRUFHGWRPDNH VRPHSURJUHVVLQHOLPLQDWLQJEDUULHUVDQGPDNLQJLWHDVLHUIRUIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHV WRHVWDEOLVKWKHPVHOYHVLQ-DSDQEXW-DSDQHVHRIÀFLDOVDQGFRPSDQLHVIRXQGFUHDWLYHZD\VWRGHOD\WKHSURFHVV
Vogel -DSDQHVHLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWVKDGEHJXQWRVXFFHHGLQZRUOGPDUNHWVEHFDXVH -DSDQHVHPDQXIDFWXUHUVKDGVWXGLHGIRUHLJQPDUNHWVDQGZRUNHGKDUGWRFXWFRVWV UDLVHTXDOLW\DQGGRZKDWHYHUHOVHZDVQHFHVVDU\WRJDLQHQWU\LQJOREDOPDUNHWV 7KH\ KDG LQ IDFW PDGH H[WUDRUGLQDU\ SURJUHVV LQ SURGXFWLRQ EHFRPLQJ RYHUDOO ZRUOGOHDGHUVLQPDQXIDFWXULQJWHFKQRORJ\,QFRQWUDVW-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOFRPSDQLHVLQWKHVDQGVGLGQRWJRDEURDGWRFRPSHWHLQIRUHLJQPDUNHWV QRUGLGWKH\KDYHWRFRPSHWHLQWKHZHOOSURWHFWHGORFDOPDUNHWV7KXV-DSDQHVH ÀQDQFLDO ÀUPV ODJJHG EHKLQG WKHLU LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSHWLWRUV LQ HIÀFLHQF\ FRQVXPHUVHUYLFHVDQGGHYHORSPHQWRIVRSKLVWLFDWHGSURGXFWV7KLVGLGQRWFUHDWH VHYHUH SUREOHPV LQ WKH V DQG V EXW E\ WKH V -DSDQHVH ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQVKDGEHJXQWRIHHOQHZSUHVVXUHVIURPVHYHUDOVRXUFHV7KHPRVWVXFFHVVIXO-DSDQHVHLQGXVWULDOSURGXFHUVZHUHDFFXPXODWLQJVRPXFKFDSLWDOWKDWWKH\ QRORQJHUQHHGHGWRERUURZIURP-DSDQHVHEDQNV-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV ÁXVKZLWKFDSLWDOKDGWRÀQGQHZFXVWRPHUVWRZKRPWROHQGDQGWKLVZDVJHQHUDOO\PXFKULVNLHU:LWKWKHLUH[FHVVFDSLWDOWKH\ZHUHZLOOLQJWRLQYHVWLQWKHUHDO HVWDWHPDUNHWVZKLFKFUHDWHGKXJHUHDOHVWDWHEXEEOHV)XUWKHUPRUHEHFDXVHVR PDQ\ -DSDQHVH FRPSDQLHV KDG JRQH DEURDG DQG KDG DFFHVV WR IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO WKH -DSDQHVH )LQDQFH 0LQLVWU\ KDG PRUH WURXEOH FRQWUROOLQJ -DSDQHVH ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV,QSDUWLFXODUWKHJURZWKRIZRUOGZLGHHTXLW\PDUNHWVUHODWLYHWRWUDGLWLRQDOEDQNOHQGLQJFRPSOLFDWHGWKHHIIRUWVRIWKH)LQDQFH0LQLVWU\WRFRQWURO ÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVGXULQJWKHODWHVÁXVK ZLWK FDSLWDO H[SDQGHG WKHLU RSHUDWLRQV DEURDG EXW WKH\ VRRQ IRXQG WKDW WKH\ ODFNHGWKHVNLOOVWRFRPSHWHLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV:LWKWKHJOREDOL]DWLRQRI FDSLWDOPDUNHWVDQGWKHJURZWKRIJOREDOHTXLW\PDUNHWVFRPSDUHGZLWKEDQNLQJ DVWKHVRXUFHRIFDSLWDO-DSDQHVHDXWKRULWLHVZHUHIRUFHGWRDOORZPRUHIRUHLJQ ÀQDQFLDOÀUPVLQWR-DSDQ·VGRPHVWLFPDUNHWHYHQEHIRUH-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVZHUHHIIHFWLYHFRPSHWLWRUV ,QVKRUW-DSDQHVHOHDGHUVLQJRYHUQPHQWDQGEXVLQHVVLQERWKLQGXVWU\DQG ÀQDQFH UHPDLQHG DV WKH\ KDG EHHQ EHIRUH UHOXFWDQW OLEHUDOL]HUV 7KH -DSDQHVH SHRSOH KDG DFKLHYHG D KLJK VWDQGDUG RI OLYLQJ DQG KDG VXFFHHGHG E\ UHPDLQLQJLQVXODU7KH\EHJDQWROLEHUDOL]HRQO\ZKHQIRUFHGWRE\WKHSUHVVXUHV IURPIRUHLJQJRYHUQPHQWVDQGJOREDOPDUNHWV China :KHQ 'HQJ ;LDRSLQJ OHG WKH &KLQHVH LQWR UHIRUP DQG RSHQLQJ XS LQ &KLQDZDVIDUEHKLQGJOREDOVWDQGDUGVLQLQGXVWU\LQÀQDQFHLQHGXFDWLRQDQG LQSK\VLFDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHV,WGLGQRWKDYHWKHWLPHWREXLOGXS LWVRZQLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGVNLOOHGSHUVRQQHOWKHZD\-DSDQGLGDIWHURUHYHQ DIWHU7KHGLVDVWHUVRIWKH*UHDW/HDS)RUZDUGDQGWKH&XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ LQFUHDVHG WKH QHHG IRU GUDVWLF FKDQJH WR HOLPLQDWH SRYHUW\ DQG UHGXFH WKH JDS ZLWKIRUHLJQFRXQWULHV7RUDLVHLWVVWDQGDUGRIOLYLQJ&KLQDQHHGHGWREHPRUH RSHQWRIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWWRLPSRUWVRIIRUHLJQSURGXFHUJRRGVDQGWRIRUHLJQ DVVLVWDQFH WKDQ -DSDQ ZDV DW FRPSDUDEOH VWDJHV RI GHYHORSPHQW &KLQD·V WRS RIÀFLDOVZHUHDOVRFRQÀGHQWWKDWWKHLUKXJHQDWLRQFRXOGDOORZRYHUVHDV&KLQHVH
Foreword
DQGRWKHUIRUHLJQHUVWRJDLQDIRRWKROGZLWKRXWFDXVLQJORQJWHUPGRPLQDWLRQRI &KLQDE\IRUHLJQHUV%HFDXVH&KLQDZDVIDUPRUHXQLWHGWKDQEHIRUHDQG EHFDXVHIRUHLJQFRORQL]DWLRQZDVODUJHO\DVSHQWIRUFHWKH&KLQHVHZHUHIDUOHVV ZRUULHGDERXWORQJWHUPGRPLQDWLRQWKDQWKH\KDGEHHQGHFDGHVHDUOLHUDQGIDU PRUHFRQFHUQHGDERXWJHWWLQJJURZWKVWDUWHGUDSLGO\ %HFDXVHWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWDQGLQGXVWULDOVWUXFWXUHZHUHVRKRSHOHVVO\ EHKLQG ZRUOG VWDQGDUGV WKH FRXQWU\·V WRS OHDGHUV UHDOL]HG WKDW &KLQD XUJHQWO\ QHHGHGIDUUHDFKLQJGRPHVWLFUHIRUPVDQGWKDWIRUHLJQÀUPVLQ&KLQDFRXOGSURYLGHUDSLGWUDQVIHURIWHFKQRORJ\DQGPDQDJHULDONQRZKRZ7KH\DOVRNQHZWKDW LQVXFKDKXJHFRXQWU\ZLWKVRPDQ\ORFDORIÀFLDOVODFNLQJNQRZOHGJHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOVWDQGDUGVIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\DQGIRUHLJQPDQDJHPHQW DQGPDUNHWVFRXOGKHOSRYHUFRPHORFDOUHVLVWDQFH %HFDXVH&KLQDGLGQRWKDYHGHPRFUDF\WKHWRSOHDGHUVZHUHDEOHWRWDNHVWURQJ PHDVXUHVWRRSHQXSWKHFRXQWU\GHVSLWHUHVLVWDQFHIURPORFDORIÀFLDOVDQGORFDO VHFWRUV7KH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWGLGHQRXJKLQWKLVDUHDWRDOORZHQWUHSUHQHXUVKLS WRGHYHORS3HRSOHDQGHYHQRIÀFLDOVZHUHJLYHQWKHÁ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ÀFLDOVWKRXJKOHDGLQJDQDWLRQWKDWZDVIDUEHKLQGDQGXQDEOHWROLQNWUDFNV HDVLO\ZLWKJOREDOLQVWLWXWLRQVIRXQGLWUHODWLYHO\HDV\WRDGRSWPHDVXUHVWKDWVXSSRUWHG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ &KLQHVH ORFDO RIÀFLDOV DQG ORFDO VHFWRUV FRXOG RI FRXUVH ÀQG ZD\V WR VORZ GRZQ IRUHLJQ HQFURDFKPHQW LQ WKHLU WHUULWRU\ DQG WR IXUWKHU WKHLURZQLQWHUHVWV%XWWKHWRSQDWLRQDOOHDGHUVIXOO\FRQYLQFHGRIWKHYDOXHRI RSHQLQJXSWKHFRXQWU\FRXOGXVHJOREDOPDUNHWSUHVVXUHVQRWRQO\WRHQKDQFH WKHLQYHVWPHQWLQ&KLQDDQGWKHWUDQVIHURIWHFKQRORJ\EXWDOVRWRKHOSGULYHWKH UHIRUPSURFHVVLWVHOI
Concluding remarks $VWKHHGLWRUVWRWKLVYROXPHKLJKOLJKWLQWKHLULQWURGXFWRU\FKDSWHUWKHFHQWUDOL]HG VWUXFWXUHWKDWODWHGHYHORSHUVOLNH&KLQDDQG-DSDQHUHFWHGKLVWRULFDOO\WRFDWFKXS ZLWKDGYDQFHGFRXQWULHVLVQRZEHLQJDOWHUHGWRSURYLGHWKHÁH[LELOLW\WRDGDSWWR WKHPRUHFRPSOH[HFRQRP\DQGWKHOLQNVZLWKWKHJOREDOL]HGHFRQRPLHV:KLOH WKHSURFHVVRISXWWLQJLQSODFHLQVWLWXWLRQVIRUODWHGHYHORSPHQWKDVEHHQVWXGLHG WKHUHLVOLWWOHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWKRZDQGLQZKDWZD\VVWDWHVLQWKHVHHFRQRPLHV KDYHDGDSWHGWRWKHSUHVVXUHVIRUODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\ :KDWFKDOOHQJHVDUHWKHWZRVWDWHVIDFHGZLWK":KDWKDYHWKH\GRQHWRDGDSW" :KDWDFWRUVDQGVWUXFWXUHVDUHFHQWUDOWRGD\LQWKLVDGDSWLYHSURFHVV"&KLQDZLWK LWVVRFLDOLVWVWUXFWXUHKDVRQHVHWRILQVWLWXWLRQVWRPRGLI\EXWLWKDVDVWURQJFHQWUDO
Vogel OHDGHUVKLSDGGUHVVLQJWKRVHSUREOHPV-DSDQKDVDQRWKHUPRUHÁH[LEOHVWUXFWXUH WKDW VWLOO QHHGV PRGLÀFDWLRQ EXW LV ZHLJKWHG GRZQ ZLWK D GHPRFUDWLF VWUXFWXUH WKDW FRQWLQXHV WR SURYLGH PRUH SURWHFWLRQ WR VRPH VHFWRUV WKDQ RWKHUV ,Q WKLV SLRQHHULQJZRUN-DSDQDQG&KLQDVSHFLDOLVWVFRPSDUHDQGFRQWUDVWKRZWKHVWDWHV LQWKHVHWZRFRXQWULHVZLWKWKHVHGLIIHUHQWEDFNJURXQGVDUHFRSLQJZLWKWKHVDPH SUHVVXUHV RI JOREDOL]DWLRQ DFURVV ÀYH FULWLFDO HFRQRPLF DUHDV QDPHO\ GHYHORSPHQWWUDGHLQYHVWPHQWÀQDQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\$VWKHHGLWRUVKLJKOLJKWIURP WKHVWXGLHVWKHUHDUHVLJQLÀFDQWYDULDWLRQVDFURVVWKHVHDUHDVLQWKHPDUFKWRZDUG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQZKLFKPHDQVWKDWZHVKRXOGEHFDXWLRXVDERXWPDNLQJRSWLPLVWLF SURMHFWLRQVRIPDUNHWEDVHGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ
Notes )DU (DVWHUQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ /DWHU FDOFXODWLRQV EDVHG RQ SXUFKDVLQJ SRZHUSDULW\ZHUHWRUHGXFHWKHHVWLPDWHVRIWKHJDSEHWZHHQSHUFDSLWDLQFRPHLQ &KLQDDQG-DSDQEXWLWUHPDLQHGKXJH
Late liberalizers &RPSDUDWLYHSHUVSHFWLYHVRQ-DSDQ DQG&KLQD Saadia M. Pekkanen and Kellee S. Tsai
7ZR SRZHUV LQ (DVW $VLD WRGD\ VWDQG WR GHÀQH WKH UHJLRQ·V HFRQRPLF DQG FRPPHUFLDOIXWXUH-DSDQZKLFKURVHLQDVSHFWDFXODULQGXVWULDOEXUVWWREHFRPH DW SUHVHQW WKH ZRUOG·V VHFRQG ODUJHVW HFRQRP\ DQG &KLQD ZKLFK LV UDSLGO\ DGYDQFLQJWRZDUGDPDUNHWHFRQRP\XQGHUWKHZDWFKIXOH\HRIWKHZRUOG$WWKH VWDUWRIWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\ERWK-DSDQDQG&KLQDDUHXQGHUJRLQJGRPHVWLF WUDQVIRUPDWLRQV WKDW KDYH PDMRU UHJLRQDO DQG JOREDO HFRQRPLF FRQVHTXHQFHV $VRIWKHWZRHFRQRPLHVDOUHDG\FRQVWLWXWHGSHUFHQWRIWKHYDOXHRI PHUFKDQGLVHWUDGHLQ$VLDDQGSHUFHQWJOREDOO\ :KLOHPXFKKDVEHHQPDGHRI-DSDQDQG&KLQD·VSDUWLFXODUHFRQRPLFLQVWLWXWLRQV DQG GHYHORSPHQWDO SDWKV IHZ ZRUNV DQDO\]H WKHP LQ D FRPSDUDWLYH IUDPHZRUN7KLVLVDOOWKHPRUHLPSRUWDQWDVERWKFRXQWULHVKDYHEHJXQWRWDNH VWHSVWKDWPD\ZHOOWUDQVIRUPWKH(DVW$VLDQUHJLRQLQWRDQLQWHJUDWHGHFRQRPLF EORF 7KLV HGLWHG YROXPH ZKLFK IRFXVHV RQ WKH SHULRG IURP WKH V WR WKH RQVHWRIWKHVLVRQHRIWKHÀUVWWREULQJWRJHWKHUVSHFLDOLVWVLQWKHSROLWLFDO HFRQRP\RIboth-DSDQDQG&KLQD2XUFROODERUDWLRQLVSUHPLVHGRQWKHEHOLHI WKDWRQO\VXFKDQH[SOLFLWO\FRPSDUDWLYHIUDPHZRUNZLOOJLYHSROLWLFDOVFLHQWLVWV SROLWLFDOHFRQRPLVWVEXVLQHVVFRQFHUQVDQGSROLF\DQDO\VWVDÀUPHUJUDVSRIWKH UROH-DSDQDQG&KLQDVWDQGWRSOD\LQWKHZRUOGSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\,QDGGLWLRQ WR WKH VWUXFWXUDO UHDOLW\ RI WKHLU FRPELQHG HFRQRPLF LPSDFW ZH EHOLHYH WKDW D V\VWHPDWLFFRPSDULVRQRI-DSDQDQG&KLQD·VSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVPD\ \LHOGYDOXDEOHLQVLJKWVLQWRKRZERWKDGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOL]HGDQGODWHGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHVDUHDGMXVWLQJWRWKHGHPDQGVRIZRUOGHFRQRPLFLQWHJUDWLRQ²RUPRUH SRSXODUO\ JOREDOL]DWLRQ ² DQG WKH GRPHVWLF SROLWLFDO G\QDPLFV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHVHSURFHVVHV 7KH GHSDUWXUH SRLQW IRU RXU FROODERUDWLYH HIIRUW LV WKH KHJHPRQLF ULVH RI OLEHUDOHFRQRPLFLGHRORJ\DWWKHHQGRIWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\ZKLFKDWOHDVW UKHWRULFDOO\FRQGHQVHGWKHUDQJHRIWKHRUHWLFDOLGHRORJLFDODQGSUDFWLFDORSWLRQV IRUHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWZHOOLQWRWKHV$OWKRXJKSUHYLRXVWKHRULHVGHPRQVWUDWHGTXLWHFRQYLQFLQJO\WKDWDVWURQJDQGLQWHUYHQWLRQLVWVWDWHFRXOGDOOHYLDWH WKHFRQGLWLRQVRIHFRQRPLFEDFNZDUGQHVVFRQWHPSRUDU\G\QDPLFVLQWKHZRUOG HFRQRP\KDYHHPSRZHUHGDKRVWRIQRQVWDWHDFWRUVDQGIRUFHVERWKGRPHVWLFDOO\ DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ ZKLFK LQ WXUQ UHTXLUH JUHDWHU ÁH[LELOLW\ DQG PRUH FUHDWLYH UHVSRQVHVRQWKHSDUWRIWKHVWDWH
Pekkanen and Tsai 7KHFRQFHSWXDOIRFXVRIWKLVYROXPHLVRQDVVHVVLQJWKHZD\VLQZKLFK-DSDQ DQG&KLQDKDYHPRYHGWRHPEUDFHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWHUPVRIERWKWKHLUGRPHVWLF HFRQRPLF RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG WKHLU LQWHJUDWLRQ LQ WKH ZRUOG HFRQRP\ 7R EH VSHFLÀFE\OLEHUDOL]DWLRQZHPHDQthe processes by which governments are shifting toward liberal market-oriented economic norms, policies, and practices 2XU PDLQFRQWHQWLRQLVWKDWWKHGHEDWHRYHUWKHUROHRIWKHVWDWHLQHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW LV ULSH IRU D SDUDGLJPDWLF VKLIW 'XULQJ WKH LPPHGLDWH SRVWZDU GHFDGHV WKHIRFXVRQ´ODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUVµKDGHPSLULFDOUHOHYDQFHDQG\LHOGHGYDOXDEOH FRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHVWXG\RISROLWLFDOHFRQRP\$WSUHVHQWKRZHYHULWLVIDUPRUH DSSURSULDWHWRFRQFHSWXDOL]HWKHGHEDWHLQWHUPVRI´ODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVµZKLFKZH EHOLHYHWREHDPRUHDSWGHVFULSWLRQRIERWK-DSDQDQG&KLQDDWWKLVXQLTXHKLVWRULFDOMXQFWXUH:HSURSRVHWKDW-DSDQ&KLQDDQGPDQ\RWKHUFRXQWULHVWKDWDUHQRW W\SLFDOO\DQDO\]HGFRPSDUDWLYHO\PD\EHFRQVLGHUHG´ODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVµEHFDXVH WKH\IDFHVLPLODULQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHVWRLPSOHPHQWOLEHUDOHFRQRPLFUHIRUPV DIWHU VHYHUDO GHFDGHV RI SXUVXLQJ VWDWHFHQWHUHG RU VWDWHGRPLQDWHG HFRQRPLF SROLFLHV-XVWDVHDUO\DQGODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUVIDFHGGLIIHUHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHV²DQG WKHUHIRUHSXUVXHGGLIIHUHQWGHYHORSPHQWDOVWUDWHJLHVWKDWFUHDWHGGLIIHUHQWW\SHV RIVWDWHV²ZHVXJJHVWWKDWWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHVHVWDWLVWOHJDFLHVand WKHQDWXUH RIWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWPHGLDWHVWKHSURFHVVRIODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ%\ TXDOLI\LQJ´OLEHUDOL]DWLRQµZLWK´ODWHµZHDUHUHIHUULQJWRWKHIDFWWKDWVRPHFRXQWULHVVWDUWHGLPSOHPHQWLQJPRUHPDUNHWRULHQWHGGRPHVWLFSROLFLHVWKDWLQWHJUDWHG WKHPPRUHFORVHO\ZLWKWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\DWODWHUKLVWRULFDOMXQFWXUHVWKDQRWKHUV$VWKLVYROXPHZLOOVKRZWKHVLJQLÀFDQFHRIWKLVGLIIHUHQFHLQWLPLQJLVWKDW ODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVH[SHULHQFHJUHDWHULQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUH²DQGVRPHWLPHVJUHDWHU RUPRUHFUHDWLYHGRPHVWLFUHVLVWDQFH²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ÀFWRSLFZLWKWKHHGLWRUV WKHQFXPXODWLYHO\KLJKOLJKWLQJWKHNH\IHDWXUHVDQGSDWWHUQVIURPERWKFRXQWULHV 7KHWRSLFVLQFOXGHGHYHORSPHQWWUDGHLQYHVWPHQWÀQDQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\(DFK DXWKRUIRFXVHVRQWKHFHQWUDOWKHPHRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGWKHQSODFHVJUHDWHURU OHVVHUHPSKDVLVRQDVHULHVRIVXERUGLQDWHTXHVWLRQV
7R ZKDW H[WHQW LV OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RFFXUULQJ LQ D VSHFLÀF VHFWRU EHLQJ PLQGIXO RI WKH IDFW WKDW WKLV PHDQV EURDGO\ DQ HPSKDVLV RQ GHUHJXODWLRQ LQ WKH -DSDQHVHFDVHDQGDVRFLDOLVWWRPDUNHWWUDQVLWLRQLQWKH&KLQHVHRQH" 7R ZKDW H[WHQW GR SROLWLFDO DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO IDFWRUV PHGLDWH JRYHUQPHQWDO FRQGXFW"
Late liberalizers
+RZ GR LQWHUQDWLRQDO UHJLRQDO DQGRU GRPHVWLF FRQFHUQV DIIHFW SUHVHQW G\QDPLFVLQDJLYHQHFRQRPLFVHFWRU" :KDW DFWRUV LQWHUHVWV DQG SURFHVVHV DUH PRVW UHOHYDQW IRU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIDJLYHQVHFWRU"
,QDGGLWLRQWRHOXFLGDWLQJWKHHPSLULFDOFRQGLWLRQVRIERWKFRXQWULHVWKHH[SORUDWLRQ RI WKHVH TXHVWLRQV VSHDNV WR NH\ LVVXHV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI FRPSDUDWLYH DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\:HÀQGWKDWWKHWLPLQJRIHFRQRPLFOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ´PDWWHUVµSROLWLFDOO\DWERWKWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDODQGGRPHVWLFOHYHOVRIDQDO\VLV,Q FRQWUDVWWRHDUO\OLEHUDOL]HUVODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVIDFHDJOREDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\WKDW LQGXFHV DQG UHZDUGV WKH DGRSWLRQ RI PDUNHWRULHQWHG SROLFLHV LQ D PRUH FRPSUHVVHGSHULRGRIWLPH
From late industrializers to late liberalizers $OH[DQGHU *HUVFKHQNURQ·V GHYHORSPHQWDO FODVVLF Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective LQVSLUHG DQ HQWLUH UHVHDUFK DJHQGD GHYRWHG WR WKH SROLWLFDOHFRQRP\RIODWHGHYHORSPHQW*HUVFKHQNURQ :KLOHWKHHDUOLHVW LQGXVWULDOL]HUV GHYHORSHG RYHU KXQGUHGV RI \HDUV XQGHU UHODWLYHO\ ODLVVH]IDLUH FRQGLWLRQVODWHGHYHORSHUVVXFKDV*HUPDQ\DQG-DSDQUHOLHGRQVWDWHOHGPRGHOV RILQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQWRIDFLOLWDWHUDSLGFDSLWDODFFXPXODWLRQLQDQHIIRUWWRFDWFKXS ZLWK WKH SUHH[LVWLQJ LQGXVWULDOL]HG FRXQWULHV *HUVFKHQNURQ·V LQVLJKW DERXW WKH SRWHQWLDOO\HQWUHSUHQHXULDOUROHRIWKHVWDWHLQODWHGHYHORSHUVXOWLPDWHO\FKDOOHQJHG QHRFODVVLFDOH[SODQDWLRQVRIJURZWKDQGSURYLGHGWKHEDVLVIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWHSDUDGLJP6XFKFKDOOHQJHVUHFHLYHGDWUHPHQGRXVERRVWLQWKHVIURP PRUH IRUPDO WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHOV LQ WKH QHZ LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLFV OLWHUDWXUH VSHFLÀFDOO\WKHEUDQFKIRFXVHGRQVWUDWHJLFWUDGHSROLF\,QGLUHFWFRQWUDGLFWLRQ WRPDLQVWUHDPOLEHUDOSUHVFULSWLRQVIRULQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDVHWRISLRQHHULQJZRUNV E\ HFRQRPLVWV VKRZHG WKDW XQGHU FHUWDLQ FRQGLWLRQV VWDWH LQWHUYHQWLRQ FRXOG LQFUHDVHQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFZHOIDUH.UXJPDQ 6WXGLHVRI-DSDQDQGRWKHUFRXQWULHVWKDWH[SHULHQFHGUDSLGSRVWZDUJURZWK DOVRDSSHDUHGLQSUDFWLFHWRGHPRQVWUDWHKRZVWDWHVWKDWHQMR\HGUHODWLYHDXWRQRP\IURPVRFLHW\DQGSRVVHVVHGZHOOLQVWLWXWLRQDOL]HGEXUHDXFUDFLHVFRXOGSOD\
Pekkanen and Tsai DJURZWKSURPRWLQJGHYHORSPHQWDOUROHLQWKHHFRQRP\,WZDV-DSDQ·VLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVWKDWVSHFLÀFDOO\LQVSLUHGWKHWHUP´GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµZKLFK UHIHUVWRLWVPRGHORIFDUHIXOVWDWHLQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHHFRQRP\DQGDFFRPSDQ\LQJ SKDVH RI UDSLG JURZWK -RKQVRQ :RR&XPLQJV 3HNNDQHQ *LYHQWKDWWKHQHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVRI6RXWK.RUHD7DLZDQ6LQJDSRUH DQG +RQJ .RQJ DOVR EHFDPH NQRZQ DV SURWRW\SLFDO GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWHV ZLWK DXWKRULWDULDQUHJLPHVGXULQJWKHSRVW:RUOG:DU,,SHULRGLWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJWKDW VFKRODUVDUHDSSO\LQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHOWRUHIRUPHUD&KLQD'H\R $PVGHQ+DJJDUG:DGH()9RJHO $OWKRXJKWKH $VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLVRIWKHODWHVFDOOHGLQWRTXHVWLRQWKHORQJWHUPYLDELOLW\ RIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHDQGLWVDVVRFLDWLRQZLWKSRVLWLYHHFRQRPLFRXWFRPHV WKH IDFW UHPDLQV WKDW PDQ\ FRXQWULHV LQGHHG H[SHULHQFHG UDSLG JURZWK XQGHU FRQGLWLRQV RI H[WHQVLYH VWDWH LQYROYHPHQW LQ WKH HFRQRP\ 0RUHRYHU FRQWUDU\ WR SRSXODU SHUFHSWLRQV WKLV KLVWRULFDO GHEDWH LV QRW TXLWH RYHU 'RXEWV UHPDLQ DERXWZKHWKHU-DSDQKDVVKHGLWVGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPDQWOHHYHQDWWKLVPDWXUH VWDJHRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGZKHWKHU&KLQD·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et al 7KH GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH SDUDGLJP VHULRXVO\ XQGHUPLQHG WKH OHJLWLPDF\ RI GHSHQGHQF\ WKHRU\ LQ 86 SROLWLFDO VFLHQFH EHFDXVH LW RIIHUHG D VWDWHFHQWULF GRPHVWLF VROXWLRQ WR RYHUFRPLQJ VWUXFWXUDO H[SORLWDWLRQ LQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOGLYLVLRQRIODERUDQGSURGXFWLRQ:DOGQHU
Late liberalizers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²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ÀFXOWIRUFRXQWULHVDWDOOLQFRPHOHYHOVWRSXUVXHDXWDUNLF GHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHV %\WKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\IHZZRXOGGLVSXWHWKDWDQDOPRVW UHYROXWLRQDU\VKLIWKDVRFFXUUHGLQIDYRURIOLEHUDOHFRQRPLFSUHVFULSWLRQV²DQHDU ´WULXPSKµLQWHUPVRIRQHVHWRILGHDVRYHURWKHUV)XNX\DPD%LHUVWHNHU ² 7KLVVWUXFWXUDODQGLGHRORJLFDOWXUQWRZDUGOLEHUDOHFRQRPLFQRUPV DQGSUDFWLFHVORQJSURSDJDWHGE\WKH:RUOG%DQNDQGWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\ )XQGEHFDPHIXUWKHULQVWLWXWLRQDOL]HGZLWKWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKH:RUOG7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ:72 LQ&RQFXUUHQWO\REVHUYHUVEHJDQWRUHPDUNXSRQWKH HPHUJHQFHRIDIXQGDPHQWDOO\QHZFRQÀJXUDWLRQRISROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFIRUFHV LQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDODUHQD,QWKHGlobal Pressures, Regional ReponsesYROXPH IRU H[DPSOH %DUEDUD 6WDOOLQJV RXWOLQHG ´D QHZ LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRQWH[W IRUGHYHORSPHQWµFRPSULVLQJÀYHNH\HOHPHQWV²´WKHHQGRIWKHFROGZDUQHZ UHODWLRQVDPRQJDGYDQFHGFDSLWDOLVWSRZHUVLQFUHDVHGJOREDOL]DWLRQRIWUDGHDQG SURGXFWLRQ VKLIWLQJ SDWWHUQV RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO ÀQDQFH DQG QHZ LGHRORJLFDO FXUUHQWVµ:KLOHUHFRJQL]LQJWKDWWKLVLVQRWWKHÀUVWWLPHLQKLVWRU\WKDWWKHZRUOG FDSLWDOLVWHFRQRP\KDVDSSHDUHGWRVKLIWGUDPDWLFDOO\WRZDUGJUHDWHULQWHJUDWLRQ ZH DJUHH WKDW VLJQLÀFDQW FKDQJHV LQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQW ² JHRSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFLGHRORJLFDODQGULVHRIQRQVWDWHDFWRUV²KDYHLQGHHGRFFXUUHG EHWZHHQWKHLPPHGLDWHSRVW:RUOG:DU,,DQGSRVW&ROG:DUSHULRGV
Pekkanen and Tsai ,W LV LQ WKLV FRQWH[W WKDW WKH VWUXFWXUDO ORJLF RI GHSHQGHQF\ WKHRU\ KDV UH HPHUJHG LQ WKH À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ÀQGVWKDWWKHQHZLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWH[WIRUGHYHORSPHQWKDVJLYHQULVHWRUHJLRQDO YDULDWLRQLQERWKSROLF\FKRLFHVDQGHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDORXWFRPHV,QWKH ´VHFRQGLPDJH UHYHUVHGµ WUDGLWLRQ WKH DXWKRUV LQ 5REHUW .HRKDQH DQG +HOHQ 0LOQHU·V YROXPHInternationalization and Domestic PoliticsVKRZKRZ LQWHUQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQVKDSHVERWKWKHSROLF\SUHIHUHQFHVRIGRPHVWLFDFWRUVDQGWKH QDWXUH RI QDWLRQDO SROLFLHV DQG SROLF\PDNLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQV$ORQJ VLPLODU OLQHV WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI ZRUNV LQ 6X]DQQH %HUJHU DQG 5RQDOG 'RUH·V National Diversity and Global Capitalism YROXPHREVHUYHDFHUWDLQGHJUHHRIFRQYHUJHQFH LQPDFURHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVEXWVXEVWDQWLDOGLYHUJHQFHLQQDWLRQDOSUDFWLFHVDQG LQVWLWXWLRQVDVZHOODVHFRQRPLFSHUIRUPDQFH,QRWKHUZRUGVQDWLRQDOPRGHOVRI GHYHORSPHQWFRQWLQXHWRKDYHFDXVDOUHOHYDQFHEHFDXVHWKH\LQÁXHQFHWKHZD\V VWDWHVDGDSWWRWUHQGVLQWKHJOREDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\²ZKHWKHUWKH\DUHWHUPHG HQPDVVHLQWHJUDWLRQJOREDOL]DWLRQRUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ
Analytical and methodological framework %XLOGLQJRQWKHVHLQVLJKWVWKLVYROXPHIRFXVHVRQliberalization, ZKLFKUHIHUVWR WKHSURFHVVRIVKLIWLQJWRZDUGOLEHUDOPDUNHWRULHQWHGHFRQRPLFQRUPVSROLFLHV DQGSUDFWLFHV.:KLOHSUHYLRXVVWXGLHVKDYHH[DPLQHGEURDGHUOLQNDJHVEHWZHHQ FRPSOH[ LQWHUGHSHQGHQFHFXPLQWHUQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQFXPJOREDOL]DWLRQ RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF SROLFLHV DQG RXWFRPHV RQ WKH RWKHU RXU H[SODQDWRU\REMHFWLYHLVFDVWDWDORZHUOHYHORIDQDO\VLVDQGOLPLWHGWRWKHVSHFLÀF G\QDPLFV RI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ,Q RUGHU WR DGGUHVV WKH IX]]\ LVVXH RI FRQYHUJHQFH WRZDUGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZLWKJUHDWHUSUHFLVLRQZHGHÀQHOLEHUDOHFRQRPLFSROLFLHV DQGRXWFRPHVLQVHFWRUVSHFLÀFWHUPV²WKDWLVGHYHORSPHQWWUDGHLQYHVWPHQW ÀQDQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\7DEOHGHOLQHDWHVKRZOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLVGHÀQHGLQHDFK RIWKHVHFWRUV :KLOHZHGRQRWGHQ\WKDWPHDQLQJIXOJHQHUDOL]DWLRQVPD\EHPDGHDERXWWKH RYHUDUFKLQJRULHQWDWLRQRIDQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\WKLVIUDPHZRUNHQDEOHVXVWRLGHQWLI\SURJUHVVLRQWRZDUGRUUHWUHQFKPHQWIURPHFRQRPLFOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQVSHFLÀF DUHDV$FRXQWU\IRUH[DPSOHPD\KDYHDOLEHUDOSROLF\WRZDUG,)',EXWUHWDLQ DKLJKO\UHSUHVVLYHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP$VWKHIROORZLQJFKDSWHUVZLOOGHPRQVWUDWH VXFK LQWHUVHFWRUDO YDULDWLRQV JHQHUDOO\ GHULYH IURP IDFWRUV WKDW H[WHQG EH\RQG WKHRQHVHPSKDVL]HGLQFRQYHQWLRQDOGHYHORSPHQWDORUGHSHQGHQF\DUJXPHQWV ,QEULHIDVLGHIURPEURDGO\WKLUGLPDJHLQWHUQDWLRQDO DQGVHFRQGLPDJHVWDWH GRPHVWLF YDULDEOHVWKHFRQWULEXWRUVÀQGWKDWHFRQRPLFDQGSROLWLFDODFWRUVDWWKH
Late liberalizers Table 1.1 2SHUDWLRQDOPHDVXUHVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQE\FDWHJRU\ Sector Development
Operational measure 'HFOLQLQJSURSRUWLRQRIVWDWHVHFWRUDOORZLQJSULYDWL]DWLRQ 5HGXFLQJVWDWHSURYLVLRQRISXEOLFJRRGVDQGVRFLDOZHOIDUHVHUYLFHV )LVFDOUHWUHQFKPHQWDQGRUGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ 5HGXFLQJVXEVLGLHVDQGRWKHUVXSSRUWWRSULRULW\VHFWRUV 5HGXFLQJVFDOHRIEXUHDXFUDF\DQGFLYLOVHUYDQWV
Trade
([SDQGLQJYROXPHRIWUDGH (QFRXUDJLQJH[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWV 5HGXFLQJWDULIIV 5HGXFLQJTXDQWLWDWLYHVSHFLDODQGKLGGHQEDUULHUVWRWUDGH $FFHVVLRQWR:72DQGFRQVHTXHQWDGDSWDWLRQRIGRPHVWLFOHJDO LQVWLWXWLRQDOWUDGHV\VWHP ,QFUHDVLQJDGKHUHQFHWR:72OHJDOUXOHVLQWUDGHUHODWLRQV ,QFUHDVLQJDGKHUHQFHWR:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWV\VWHP
Investment
6KLIWLQJIURPPDQGDWRU\DSSURYDOWRSULRUQRWLÀFDWLRQRUSRVWIDFWR UHSRUWLQJRI)', 5HGXFLQJRUHOLPLQDWLQJVSHFLDOUHVWULFWLRQVE\LQGXVWU\RUUHJLRQ /LIWLQJUHVWULFWLRQVRQRZQHUVKLSVKDUHVFDSLWDOUHPLWWDQFHVRU WHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHU 5HGXFLQJEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQWRLQWHUSUHWWKHODZ
Finance
5HGXFLQJVWDWHRZQHUVKLSRIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV 6LPSOLI\LQJOLFHQVLQJRIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV /LIWLQJFRQWUROVRQLQWHUHVWUDWHV 'HYHORSLQJFDSLWDOPDUNHWVUHGXFLQJUHOLDQFHRQEDQNÀQDQFLQJ 5HGXFLQJVWDWHGLUHFWHGFUHGLW´SROLF\ORDQVµ $OORZLQJIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQLQGRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP
Technology
5HGXFLQJHPSKDVLVRQLQGLJHQL]LQJWHFKQRORJ\ 5HGXFLQJUHVWULFWLRQVRQWHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHU 5HGXFLQJJRYHUQPHQWSURFXUHPHQWLQKLJKWHFKVHFWRUV $OORZLQJSURGXFWLRQE\IRUHLJQÀUPVLQGRPHVWLFPDUNHWSODFH $OORZLQJMRLQWYHQWXUHV
VXEQDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDOOHYHODUHLQÁXHQFLQJWKHG\QDPLFVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQD PDQQHUWKDWLVQRWDOZD\VPHGLDWHGE\WKHFHQWUDOVWDWH $QDO\WLFDOO\WKLVPHDQVWKDWWKHSURFHVVHVRILQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ KDYHIXQGDPHQWDOO\GLIIHUHQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHUROHRIWKHVWDWH:KHUHDVODWH LQGXVWULDOL]HUVHQGHGXSZLWKVWURQJHUVWDWHVWKDQHDUO\LQGXVWULDOL]HUVWKLVYROXPH VXJJHVWVWKDWODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVIDFHWKHGHOLFDWHSROLWLFDOSURFHVVRIadapting state LQWHUYHQWLRQZKLOHUHVSRQGLQJWRSRWHQWLDOGRPHVWLFRSSRVLWLRQDQGFUHDWLQJWKH FDSDFLW\WRGHDOZLWKQHZPDUNHWLVVXHV)RUH[DPSOHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHÀQDQFH VHFWRULQYROYHVQRWRQO\UHGXFLQJVWDWHVXEVLGL]DWLRQRIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDQG WKHLUFRUSRUDWHGHEWRUVEXWDOVRHVWDEOLVKLQJWKHQHFHVVDU\UHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUN IRUFRPPHUFLDOEDQNVDQGFDSLWDOPDUNHWV%\WKHVDPHWRNHQLQWKHDUHDRIWUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQHQWDLOVOLIWLQJEDUULHUVWRWUDGHERWKH[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWV DVZHOO
Pekkanen and Tsai DVGHYHORSLQJWKHFDSDFLW\WRHQIRUFHQHZUXOHVDQGUHJXODWLRQVWRHQVXUHFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKHWHUPVRIWKH:725HJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHUWKHVHSURFHVVHVOHDG WRVWURQJHUVWDWHVDWDPLQLPXPLWLVDSSDUHQWWKDWQHJRWLDWLQJWKHG\QDPLFVRI ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDWWKLVKLVWRULFDOMXQFWXUHUHTXLUHVDGDSWLYHVWDWHV%XWWKHEDVLF SRLQWUHPDLQVWKDWVLQFHWKHPLGVDOOFRXQWULHVKDYHIDFHGVLPLODUFRQWH[WXDO SUHVVXUHVWROLEHUDOL]HUHJDUGOHVVRIKRZGHYHORSHGRUXQGHYHORSHGWKH\DUH,WLV WKHUHIRUHQRWVXUSULVLQJWRÀQGWKDWERWK-DSDQDQG&KLQDWZRPDUNHGO\GLIIHUHQWHFRQRPLFDQGSROLWLFDOV\VWHPVKDYHVLPLODUO\DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\HQJDJHGLQ WKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSURMHFWRYHUWKHFRXUVHRIWKHSDVWIHZGHFDGHV7KLVXQLI\LQJ HPSKDVLVDVH[SODLQHGPRUHIXOO\EHORZSURYLGHVWKHPHWKRGRORJLFDOUDWLRQDOH IRUDFRPSDUDWLYHYROXPHRQ-DSDQDQG&KLQD Methodological basis for comparing Japan and China &RQWHPSRUDU\VWXGLHVWKDWLQFOXGHERWK-DSDQDQG&KLQDJHQHUDOO\IRFXVRQWKHLU ELODWHUDO UHODWLRQVKLS LQ VHFXULW\ RU HFRQRPLF LVVXHV UDWKHU WKDQ FRPSDULQJ WKH WZRFRXQWULHVGLUHFWO\''=KDQJ6RH\D$XVWLQDQG+DUULV +DQQVDQG+DDN $WÀUVWVLJKWWKHMXVWLÀFDWLRQIRUQRWFRPSDULQJ-DSDQ DQG&KLQDPDNHVVHQVH-DSDQLVDQDGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOGHPRFUDF\&KLQDLVD QHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]LQJDXWKRULWDULDQFRXQWU\XQGHUJRLQJVRFLDOLVWWUDQVLWLRQ,QWKH ODVWWKUHHGHFDGHVSROLWLFDOVFLHQWLVWVZLWKH[SHUWLVHLQ-DSDQJHQHUDOO\IRFXVHG RQ-DSDQVSHFLÀFVWXGLHVFRPSDUHGWKHFRXQWU\WRRWKHUDGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOL]HG FRXQWULHV RU H[WHQGHG WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO PRGHO JHQHUDWHG IURP -DSDQ WR QRQ VRFLDOLVW FRXQWULHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ 3ROLWLFDO VFLHQWLVWV ZLWK H[SHUWLVH LQ &KLQD JHQHUDOO\HLWKHUSURGXFHG&KLQDVSHFLÀFVWXGLHVRUFRPSDUHGWKHFRXQWU\WRRWKHU WUDQVLWLRQDORUGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV7KLVELIXUFDWLRQLQWKHFRPSDUDWLYHDQDO\VLV RI -DSDQ DQG &KLQD UHÁHFWV LQ SDUW WKH SROLWLFDO UHDOLWLHV RI WKH HDUO\ &ROG:DU HQYLURQPHQW:LWK86DVVLVWDQFH-DSDQDQG*HUPDQ\UHEXLOWWKHLUHFRQRPLHVDQG EHFDPHDGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVZKLOHWKHLUQRQFRPPXQLVWQHLJKERUV LQ(DVW$VLDDQG:HVWHUQ(XURSHDOVREHQHÀ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et al 6LQFH:RUOG:DU,,KRZHYHUDQRWKHUNH\SRLQWRIVLPLODULW\KDVHPHUJHGERWKFRXQWULHVEXLOWDGRPLQDQW VWDWH DSSDUDWXV WKDW ZDV GHVLJQHG WR SURPRWH QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF ZHOOEHLQJ ,Q -DSDQWKHKLVWRULFDO²LGHRORJLFDOFRQMXQFWLRQOHGWRWKHFDSLWDOLVWGHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWHLQ&KLQDLWUHVXOWHGLQD/HQLQLVWSDUW\VWDWHFRPPLWWHGWRVRFLDOLVWLGHRORJ\DQGRUJDQL]DWLRQ$OWKRXJKWKHVFRSHDQGJRDOVRIWKHWZRVWDWHVZHUHYHU\
Late liberalizers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ÀQDQFLDO DQG VSHFXODWLYH EXEEOH VWDUWLQJ LQ ,Q&KLQDWKHSDUW\VWDWHIRUPDOO\HPEDUNHGXSRQPRUHPDUNHWRULHQWHGSROLFLHV DQGSHUPLWWHGIRUHLJQWUDGHRXWVLGHRIWKHVRFLDOLVWEORFLQ7KHUHIRUHHYHQ WKRXJK SRVWZDU -DSDQ GHYHORSHG D FDSLWDOLVW HFRQRP\ VHYHUDO GHFDGHV EHIRUH &KLQDZHGHÀ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·VVWDWHGRPLQDWHGHFRQRP\ZDVGLYLGHGEHWZHHQDJULFXOWXUHDQG LQGXVWU\3ROLWLFDOO\-DSDQZDVDVWDEOHDQGRSHQGHPRFUDF\DQG&KLQDZDVDQ DXWKRULWDULDQUHJLPHXQGHUJRLQJDPDMRUWUDQVLWLRQLQSDUW\OHDGHUVKLS 1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ VXEVWDQWLDO SUHH[LVWLQJ GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR FRXQWULHVWKHIDFWLVWKDWERWKFRXQWULHVKDYHRQWKHVXUIDFHDWOHDVWZKROHKHDUWHGO\ PRYHGWRZDUGHFRQRPLFOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,Q-DSDQ·VFDVHWKLVPHDQVDQHPSKDVLV RQGHUHJXODWLRQZKHUHDVLQ&KLQD·VFDVHWKLVPHDQVPDNLQJWKHWUDQVLWLRQIURP D VRFLDOLVW WR D PDUNHWRULHQWHG V\VWHP LQ ERWK FDVHV WKH HPSKDVLV LV RQ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIPDUNHWVWUXFWXUHV$VWKHÀQGLQJVIURPWKLVYROXPHVXJJHVWDFURVV NH\ VHFWRUV QHJRWLDWLQJ WKH IRUFHV RI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ KDV EHHQ D FHQWUDO SROLWLFDO GLOHPPDIRUWKHVWDWHLQERWKWKHVHFRXQWULHVDQGKDVWDNHQRQDGGHGXUJHQF\LQ WKHQHZSUROLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQWH[WLQWKHZRUOGSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\7KHQH[WVHFWLRQSRLQWVRXWVRPHRIWKHFRXQWU\DQGVHFWRUVSHFLÀFÀQGLQJVWKDWDUHSUHVHQWHG LQWKHIRUWKFRPLQJFKDSWHUVDQGWHDVHVRXWVRPHSRUWDEOHJHQHUDOL]DWLRQV
&RPSDUDWLYHÀQGLQJV $V H[SODLQHG DERYH WKH WZHQW\ÀUVW FHQWXU\ KDV EHJXQ GHFLVLYHO\ LQ IDYRU RI OLEHUDO PDUNHWRULHQWHG PHFKDQLVPV DV D PHDQV WR LQFUHDVH QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF
Pekkanen and Tsai ZHOIDUH,QWKLVLGHRORJLFDOFRQWH[WDOOODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVIDFHLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHV WRUHRUJDQL]HWKHLUQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLHVLQDPDQQHUWKDWHQKDQFHVWKHUROHRIPDUNHW IRUFHV LQ UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ LQYHVWPHQW WUDGH DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ 7KLV PXFK LV ZHOO DSSUHFLDWHG DQG HDUOLHU ZH RXWOLQHG RXU DJJUHJDWH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH QDPHO\OLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGGLVFXVVHGLWVRSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQE\WKHVSHFLÀFVHFWRUV XQGHUVWXG\LQWKLVYROXPH7KHVHVHFWRUVZHUHFKRVHQERWKEHFDXVHWKH\DOORZXV WRLGHQWLI\FKDQJHRYHUWLPHDQGDOVREHFDXVHWKH\FRYHUWKHPDMRUVHFWRUVLQERWK HFRQRPLHV 2XU FRQWULEXWRUV DV VXPPDUL]HG EHORZ WKHQ WUDFHG RXW WKH H[WHQW WRZKLFKDFWXDORXWFRPHVLQ-DSDQDQG&KLQDGHYLDWHGIURPWKRVHLGHDO²W\SLFDO EHQFKPDUNVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDFURVVWKHYDULRXVVHFWRUV %XWLWLVQRWHQRXJKPHUHO\WRLGHQWLI\WKHVHHPSLULFDOÀQGLQJVLQWKH-DSDQHVH DQG&KLQHVHFDVHV$IWHUDOOWKHPDLQLVVXHRIFRQFHUQWRVFKRODUVEXVLQHVVHV DQGRWKHUVLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWSROLF\FRPPXQLW\LVQRWMXVWWKHsustainability EXW DOVRWKHreplicability RIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRXWFRPHVLQERWKFRXQWULHV7RWKRVHHQGV ZKDWGRWKH-DSDQHVHDQG&KLQHVHFDVHVVXJJHVW":KDWVSHFLÀFIDFWRUVIDFLOLWDWH RU LPSHGH WKH SURJUHVV RI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ" ([DPLQLQJ VHFWRUDO YDULDWLRQ LQ ERWK FRXQWULHVJLYHVXVDXQLTXHRSSRUWXQLW\WRJRDVWHSIXUWKHUDQGWHDVHRXWSRUWDEOH JHQHUDOL]DWLRQVUHJDUGLQJOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVHV7KHFRPSDUDWLYHÀQGLQJVDQG JHQHUDOL]DWLRQVDUHGLVFXVVHGEHORZLQVXFFHVVLRQDFURVVWKHÀYHNH\HFRQRPLF DUHDVQDPHO\GHYHORSPHQWWUDGHLQYHVWPHQWÀQDQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\ Development 7KH ÀUVW SDLU RI FKDSWHUV PD\ EH YLHZHG DV DQ H[WHQVLRQ RI WKLV LQWURGXFWRU\ FKDSWHU EHFDXVH WKH\ GLVFXVV WKH SROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ RI GHYHORSPHQW LQ -DSDQ DQG &KLQD UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7 - 3HPSHO·V FKDSWHU GHOLQHDWHV WKH NH\ FRPSRQHQWV RI -DSDQ·V GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH PRGHO SD\LQJ SDUWLFXODU DWWHQWLRQ WR DVVHVVLQJ LW LQ ERWK LWV EORRPLQJ DQG LWV IDOORZ SHULRGV 5DWKHU WKDQ DQ\ NLQG RI EOLQG HPXODWLRQV KH REVHUYHV WKDW -DSDQ·V IXWXUH HFRQRPLF PL[ LV OLNHO\ WR UHWDLQ UHVLGXHVRIGHYHORSPHQWDOLVPRQWRZKLFKZLOOFRPHJUDIWLQJVRIQHROLEHUDOLVP )RU WKDW UHDVRQ UDWKHU WKDQ GLVFDUGLQJ WKH -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQWDO PRGHO LW LV HYHQ PRUH FULWLFDO WR XQGHUVWDQG LWV SURPLVHV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV DV ZHOO DV LWV LQVWLWXWLRQDO DQG SROLWLFDO DGDSWDWLRQ XQGHU FRQGLWLRQV RI ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ$V VHHQLQUHFHQW\HDUV-DSDQ·VGHYHORSPHQWDOPRGHOKDVSURYHQWREHUHPDUNDEO\ ÁH[LEOHLQDGDSWLQJWRERWKHQGRJHQRXVDQGH[RJHQRXVVRXUFHVRIFKDQJHDQGLV QRWOLNHO\WRGLVDSSHDUDQ\WLPHVRRQ0RUHWKDQHYHUKHFODLPVLWLVYLWDOQRZWR XQGHUVWDQGWKHG\QDPLVPZLWKZKLFKWKH-DSDQHVHGHYHORSPHQWDOPRGHORSHUDWHV LQFKDQJLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVDQGVWLFN\GRPHVWLFRQHVWKDWZLOOGHWHUPLQH SURVSHFWVIRUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHIXWXUH $OWKRXJK&KLQD·VUHIRUPHUVKDYHVRXJKWWRUHSOLFDWHNH\FRPSRQHQWVRIWKH GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHO6DUDK&RRNDQG.HOOHH7VDLTXHVWLRQLWVDSSOLFDELOLW\ WR&KLQD·VWUDQVLWLRQDOVRFLDOLVWHFRQRP\7KHÀUVWWZRGHFDGHVRIVWDWHGLUHFWHG UHIRUP LQ &KLQD KDYH FHUWDLQO\ \LHOGHG KLJK JURZWK UDWHV KRZHYHU ERWK WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQW DQG GRPHVWLF FRQGLWLRQV LQ ZKLFK WKH HFRQRP\ KDV RSHUDWHG GHYLDWH VXEVWDQWLDOO\ IURP WKH KLVWRULFDOO\ VSHFLÀF FLUFXPVWDQFHV WKDW
Late liberalizers LWV(DVW$VLDQQHLJKERUVH[SHULHQFHG)XUWKHUPRUHEHFDXVHRI&KLQD·VSDUWLFXODU PRGHO RI VRFLDOLVW WUDQVLWLRQ LWV HIIRUWV WR HPXODWH VSHFLÀF HOHPHQWV RI -DSDQ·V GHYHORSPHQWDOPRGHOKDYHDOUHDG\\LHOGHGXQLQWHQGHGRXWFRPHV7KHVHLQFOXGH JURZLQJ VHFWRUDO DQG UHJLRQDO LQHTXLWLHV LQ KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW LQGLFDWRUV DV ZHOODVLQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQ,QOLJKWRIWKHVRFLDODQGSROLWLFDOFKDOOHQJHVIDFLQJ %HLMLQJ&RRNDQG7VDLFDOOIRUDPRUHKROLVWLFGHÀQLWLRQRIGHYHORSPHQWWKDQWKH HFRQRPLFFHQWULFRQHWKDWW\SLÀHVHDUOLHUVWXGLHVRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH$V ERWK D WUDQVLWLRQDOHFRQRP\ DQG D ODWH OLEHUDOL]HU &KLQD FRQIURQWV WKH GLIÀFXOW WDVNRIEDODQFLQJWKHJRDOVRIFRQWLQXLQJJURZWKDQGPDUNHWL]DWLRQRQWKHRQH KDQGZLWKPDLQWDLQLQJSROLWLFDOVWDELOLW\RQWKHRWKHU Trade )RU PRVW RI WKH SRVWZDU SHULRG WKH UROH RI WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW LQ WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQSROLWLFVUHPDLQHGKLJKO\FRQWURYHUVLDOEHFDXVHRISHUFHSWLRQVWKDW LW SURPRWHG H[SRUWV EXW WKZDUWHG LPSRUWV 1RZKHUH ZDV WKLV SHUFHSWLRQ IXHOHG PRUH WKDQ LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZKLFK ZDV SDUWLFXODUO\ FRQFHUQHG ZLWK LPSRUW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQDFURVVWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGWKHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRUV7KH -DSDQHVHUHFHVVLRQDQGWKH86HFRQRPLFUHYLYDODVZHOODV&KLQD·VULVHKDYHDOO FRPELQHGWRGHÁHFWDWWHQWLRQDZD\IURPOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQFHUQVLQ-DSDQWRGD\ %XWDV6DDGLD3HNNDQHQVKRZVLQKHUFKDSWHUVXFKFRQFHUQVFRQWLQXHWREHIDLUO\ DFULPRQLRXV LQ VSHFLÀF FDVHV RI PDUNHW DFFHVV ZKHWKHU DW KRPH RU DEURDG %\ ODWFKLQJRQWRDQGDGDSWLQJWRWKHUXOHVRIWKH:72ZKLFKUHFRJQL]HRQO\VWDWHVDV WKHLUSURSHUVXEMHFWVKHKLJKOLJKWVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI-DSDQ·VDJJUHVVLYHOHJDOLVP DQGFRQWHQGVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHKDVEHHQUHVXUUHFWHGPRUHIRUFHIXOO\WKDQHYHU EHIRUHLQWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSROLWLFV:KLOHLPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDVRFFXUUHGVKH DUJXHVWKDWWKHOHJDOSROLWLFVRIWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGDJULFXOWXUDOFDVHVWKDW-DSDQ KDVGHIHQGHGDWWKH:72RIIHUVRPHWKRXJKQRWDOZD\VRSWLPLVWLFSURVSHFWVIRU KRPHPDUNHWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDFURVVNH\-DSDQHVHVHFWRUVLQWKHIXWXUH &KLQDKDVDOVRUHFHQWO\PDGHDGHEXWLQWKHJOREDOWUDGLQJUHJLPHVDVUHÁHFWHG LQLWVKDUGZRQ3HUPDQHQW1RUPDO7UDGLQJ5HODWLRQV3175 VWDWXVLQWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVDQGWKHFRPSOHWLRQRIDVXFFHVVLRQRIGHDOVZLWKRWKHUDGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVWKDWSDYHGWKHZD\IRULWVDFFHVVLRQWRWKH:72LQ,QDQDO\]LQJERWKWKHVXEVWDQFHDQGVRXUFHVRIUHIRUPLQ&KLQD·VWUDGHSROLF\0DUJDUHW 3HDUVRQ LGHQWLÀHV D FOHDU DQG UDSLG WUHQG WRZDUG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZKLFK GHULYHV IURP D FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH VWDWH·V FRPPLWPHQW WR PXOWLODWHUDOLVP LQ PDWWHUV RI WUDGHWKHVXFFHVVRISULRUH[SHULPHQWDOHIIRUWVDWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGWKHVLJQLÀFDQW SOXUDOL]DWLRQRISROLWLFDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDODFWRUVLQYROYHGLQ&KLQD·VWUDGHSROLF\ $OWKRXJKWKHLQLWLDOGHFLVLRQWRRSHQ&KLQD·VHFRQRP\WRZRUOGWUDGHFDPHIURP %HLMLQJ·VOHDGHUV3HDUVRQSRLQWVRXWWKDWZKDWEHJDQDVDFHQWUDOL]HGWRSGRZQ SURFHVVKDGE\WKHWLPHRI&KLQD·V:72DFFHVVLRQWUDQVIRUPHGLQWRRQHLQYROYLQJDUHPDUNDEO\GLYHUVHVHWRILQWUDVWDWHDFWRUV%XWXOWLPDWHO\ZKLOHERWK&KLQD DQG -DSDQ DSSHDU WR EH FRQYHUJLQJ WRZDUG PXOWLODWHUDO OHJDO QRUPV DQG OLEHUDO WUDGLQJSUDFWLFHVLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVSURPSWHG&KLQDWROLEHUDOL]HLWVWUDGH UHJLPHLQDPXFKVKRUWHUSHULRGRIWLPHUHODWLYHWR-DSDQ$QGDUJXDEO\UHJLRQDO
Pekkanen and Tsai DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF SUHVVXUHV LQ WKH PLG WR ODWH V OHIW &KLQD ZLWK IHZGHVLUDEOHSROLF\DOWHUQDWLYHVZKLFKH[SODLQVLQSDUWZK\OLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDV SURFHHGHGWKHIXUWKHVWLQWUDGHUHODWLYHWRRWKHUVHFWRUVRIWKH&KLQHVHHFRQRP\ Investment 7KH-DSDQHVHVWDWHKDVORQJWULHGWRFRQWUROWKHRSHUDWLRQVRIIRUHLJQDQG-DSDQHVH PXOWLQDWLRQDO FRUSRUDWLRQV 01&V )HDULQJ WKDW IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO FRXOG GLVSODFH QDWLRQDOSURGXFHUVRUWKDW-DSDQHVH01&VZRXOGEHOHVVSOLDQWWREXUHDXFUDWLF GLUHFWLYHVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWRSHUDWHGRQHRIWKHPRVWUHVWULFWLYHUHJLPHVRQ FDSLWDOÁRZVDPRQJLQGXVWULDOL]HGQDWLRQV1RQHWKHOHVVVLJQLÀFDQWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RIIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW)', RFFXUUHGLQWKHV0LUH\D6ROLV·VDQDO\VLV RI ODWH )', OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ -DSDQ FKDOOHQJHV FRQYHQWLRQDO H[SODQDWLRQV ZKLFK KDYHIRFXVHGRQWKHLQÁXHQFHRIIRUHLJQSUHVVXUHDQGRUGHPDQGVIURP-DSDQHVH ROLJRSROLVWV %\ SRLQWLQJ WR WKH LQWHUSOD\ RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPPLWPHQWV DQG GRPHVWLFFRQVWLWXHQFLHVVKHGHPRQVWUDWHVLQVWHDGWKDWLQWHUEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVSXWHV VSHFLÀ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
Late liberalizers UHODWLRQV LQFOXGLQJ WKH PDLQ LQVWLWXWLRQV WKDW RQFH PHGLDWHG WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQ 6DRUL.DWDGDFRQWHQGVWKDWDVDUHVXOWRIWKHSUHVVXUHVRIODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWKH LQVWLWXWLRQDODQGSHUVRQDOOLQNVEHWZHHQWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHDQGÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV KDYHEHHQJUDGXDOO\GLVPDQWOHG7KLVKDVXOWLPDWHO\OLPLWHGWKHFDSDFLW\RIWKH VWDWHWRJXLGHWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUOHDGLQJWRDIXQGDPHQWDOVKLIWIURPWKHVWDWHOHG FRQYR\V\VWHPRIROGWRDUHJXODWRU\VWDWHPRGHOWRGD\+RZHYHUVKHDOVRVKRZV WKDWWKLVUHJXODWRU\PRGHOVWLOOHQWDLOVKHDY\LQYROYHPHQWRIWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHLQ PHGLDWLQJWKHIRUFHVRIÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQEHFDXVHIRUWKHIRUHVHHDEOHIXWXUH LWKDVWREDODQFHWKHIRUFHVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZLWKFRQFHUQVDERXWGRPHVWLFVWDELOLW\ LQWKHRYHUDOOHFRQRP\ $OWKRXJK&KLQDDYRLGHGFXUUHQF\GHYDOXDWLRQDQGDVVRFLDWHGGRPHVWLFWXUPRLO GXULQJWKH$VLDUHJLRQDOFULVLVWKLVZDVPRUHDUHÁHFWLRQRIWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU·V LQVXODWLRQ IURP LQWHUQDWLRQDO FDSLWDO PDUNHWV WKDQ DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI LWV KHDOWK ,QIDFW.DMD6HKUW·VFKDSWHUSRLQWVRXWWKDWLQGLUHFWFRQWUDVWWRWKH(DVW$VLDQ GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHV·SROLFLHVRIGLUHFWHGFUHGLWWRZDUGHFRQRPLFDOO\SURPLVLQJ LQGXVWULHV&KLQD·VEDQNVKDYHV\VWHPDWLFDOO\DOORFDWHGFUHGLWWRWKHOHDVWSURGXFWLYHSDUWVRIWKHHFRQRP\²WKHVWDWHVHFWRUXQVXVWDLQDEOHDJULFXOWXUDOHQWHUSULVHV DQG UHPRWH LPSRYHULVKHG UHJLRQV 7KH GRPHVWLF SROLWLFDO LPSRUWDQFH RI WKHVH JURXSVKDVFRQVWUDLQHGWKHSDFHRIUHIRUPLQWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPWKXVIDU$QG LQGHHG6HKUWVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUHODWLYHGHOD\LQÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDVVHUYHG WREXIIHUWKHFRVWVRIGHHSHUUHIRUPVLQRWKHUVHFWRUV Technology 7HFKQRORJ\SROLF\KDVEHHQDWWKHFHQWHURI-DSDQ·VLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQHIIRUWVVLQFH DW OHDVW WKH 0HLML HUD 6DPXHOV 7KH HDUO\ GHFDGHV RI -DSDQ·V VXFFHVV LQ WHFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWRIIHUSRWHQWLDOOHVVRQVIRUODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUVVXFKDV &KLQDLQFOXGLQJWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDVWURQJFHQWUDOL]HGVWDWHDEDQNGRPLQDWHG ÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPVWDEOHPDFURHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVDQGDIDYRUDEOHLQWHUQDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQW 7KH HPSKDVLV RQ KLJK WHFKQRORJ\ KDV LQ IDFW LQWHQVLÀHG QRW OHVVHQHGEHFDXVHRI-DSDQ·VFXUUHQWUHFHVVLRQ0DULH$QFKRUGRJX\FKDUDFWHUL]HV WKH -DSDQHVH VWDWH DV D UHOXFWDQW ODWH OLEHUDOL]HU LQ WKH UHDOP RI WHFKQRORJ\ -DSDQHVHÀUPVWRGD\DUHNH\JOREDOSOD\HUVLQDQXPEHURIKLJKWHFKVHFWRUVDQG GHVSLWHWDONRIJUHDWHUUHOLDQFHRQPDUNHWIRUFHVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWUHPDLQV NHHQO\LQWHUHVWHGLQWKHIDWHRILWVQDWLRQDOWHFKQRORJLFDOEDVH6KHDVVHUWVWKDWLW KDVPDGHRQO\DGKRFLQFRQVLVWHQWDQGLQFUHPHQWDOPRYHVWRZDUGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ $OWKRXJKVKHREVHUYHVWKDWE\WKHVDQGV-DSDQ·VPRGHORIVWDWHGLUHFWHG WHFKQRORJ\SROLFLHVGHFOLQHGLQHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGUHVXOWHGLQDVKLIWIURPWDUJHWLQJ PDQXIDFWXULQJWRSURPRWLQJHQWUHSUHQHXULDOLQQRYDWLRQVKHDOVRPDLQWDLQVWKDW WKHUHLVQRHYLGHQFHWRVXJJHVWWKDW-DSDQLVHPEUDFLQJPDUNHWV ,Q&KLQDVLPLODUSULRULW\KDVEHHQSODFHGRQWKHDFTXLVLWLRQDQGLQGLJHQL]DWLRQ RIWHFKQRORJ\EXWLQZD\VWKDWDUHIDUOHVVFHQWUDOL]HGWKDQLQ-DSDQ$V$GDP 6HJDO·VFKDSWHULOOXVWUDWHVDOWKRXJKWKHUKHWRULFRI&KLQD·VVFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\UHPDLQVKLJKO\VWDWHFHQWULFDQGWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVWWKHUHKDVDOVREHHQ FRQVLGHUDEOH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG GHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ LQ SROLF\ DQG SUDFWLFH *LYHQ
Pekkanen and Tsai WKH JHRJUDSKLF VL]H RI &KLQD LQ FHUWDLQ VHFWRUV ORFDO JRYHUQPHQWV UDWKHU WKDQ FHQWUDOEXUHDXFUDFLHVKDYHSOD\HGOHDGLQJUROHVLQGHÀQLQJWKHWHUPVRIWHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQWDQGWUDQVIHU/RFDOLWLHVKDYHGHYLVHGLQQRYDWLYHWHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQWSURJUDPVWKDWPD\FRPSHWHZLWKRQHDQRWKHUDQGGHYLDWHIURPWKH LQWHQWLRQVRIQDWLRQDOSROLF\$VDFRQVHTXHQFH&KLQDODFNVDQLQWHJUDWHGQDWLRQDO SROLF\IRUWHFKQRORJ\DFTXLVLWLRQLQSUDFWLFDOWHUPV
Broader lessons for late liberalizers ,QWKLVFRQFOXGLQJVHFWLRQZHXVHWKHÀQGLQJVIURPWKLVYROXPHWRDGGUHVVWZR LVVXHVRINH\FRQFHUQWRWKRVHIRFXVHGRQ(DVW$VLDQGHYHORSPHQWLQWKHFRQWH[WRI ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ'HVSLWHWKHVHFWRUDOGLIIHUHQFHVWKDWHPHUJHIURPRXUFDVHVDV UHYLHZHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQZHPD\QRQHWKHOHVVREVHUYHUHFXUULQJFRXQWU\ VSHFLÀFWKHPHVIRUFRPSDUDWLYHSXUSRVHVWKDWDOORZXVWRJREH\RQGWKHKLVWRULFDO DQDO\WLFV )LUVW ZH OD\ RXW ZKDW WKH VWXGLHV VXJJHVW DV EHLQJ VRPH FRQGLWLRQV HYHQLISUHOLPLQDU\IRUHIIHFWLYHODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ6HFRQGZHIRFXVRQWKHORQJ UXQQLQJGHEDWHDERXWWKHUROHRIWKHVWDWHLQSURFHVVHVRIHFRQRPLFFKDQJH Some conditions for effective late liberalization 6WDUWLQJIURPWKHSUHPLVHWKDWLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHVFUHDWHGLUHFWEXWGLIIHUHQWLDO LQFHQWLYHV IRU GRPHVWLF DFWRUV RXU FRPSDUDWLYH À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ÀFLHQW FRQGLWLRQVIRUPRYHPHQWWRZDUGWKHLGHDO²W\SLFDOEHQFKPDUNVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DFURVVDOOWKHVHFWRUV%HORZZHOD\RXWWKHSROLWLFDOUDWLRQDOHRIWKHVHGLPHQVLRQV PRUHFORVHO\GUDZLQJYHU\JHQHUDOO\XSRQWKHHYLGHQFHIURPWKHÀQGLQJVLQWKLV YROXPH:HZRXOGOLNHWRVWUHVVWKDWLQGRLQJVRZHDUHH[WUDFWLQJJHQHUDOL]DWLRQV WKDW JR EH\RQG WKH VXEVWDQFH RI WKH SUHVHQW YROXPH ZKLFK PD\ EH KHOSIXO LQ EHJLQQLQJWRWKLQNDERXWWKHEURDGHUGHEDWHRYHUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRXWVLGH-DSDQDQG &KLQD )LUVWWKHPRVWFULWLFDOHOHPHQWIRUVXVWDLQLQJOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLVWKHSUHVHQFHRI GRPHVWLFFRQVWLWXHQFLHVWKDWEHQHÀWIURPH[SRVXUHWRDQGHQJDJHPHQWZLWKWKH HFRQRPLFDQGOHJDOIRUFHVRIJOREDOL]DWLRQ.HRKDQHDQG0LOQHU :KHWKHU LQWHQWLRQDOO\RUQRWRIÀFLDOGHYHORSPHQWUKHWRULFDQGSROLF\LQ-DSDQDQG&KLQD KDVOHGWRWKHFUHDWLRQRIVXFKFRQVWLWXHQFLHV6XFKFRQVWLWXHQFLHVKDYHDQLQFHQWLYHWRKRRNRQWRRUWDUJHWNH\HOHPHQWVRIWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVHVWKDWGLUHFWO\ DIIHFWWKHLUHFRQRPLFOLYHOLKRRG2QFHWKHUHLVDFRQVWLWXHQF\RIVWDWHDQGVXEVWDWH DFWRUVWKDWDUHHQJDJHGZLWKDQGEHQHÀWLQJIURPH[SRVXUHWRJOREDOL]DWLRQWKLV
Late liberalizers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ÁRZVUHYHUVHLPSRUWVDQGFRPSHWLWLRQ DPRQJORFDOLWLHVLVFDUYLQJRXWQLFKHVRIFRQVWLWXHQFLHVWKDWZLOOFRQWLQXHWRSXVK IRUHQJDJHPHQWDEURDG,QÀQDQFHWKHVSHHGRIFDSLWDOÁRZVDVZHOODVWKHLQDELOLW\RIVWDWHVWRFRQWUROWKHLUPRYHPHQWVGHPRQVWUDWHVWKHWUDQVQDWLRQDOL]HGH[WHQW RIÀ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À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ÀQDQFHDPRQJWKHOHDVWOLEHUDOL]HGDQGXQFRPSHWLWLYH VHFWRUVWKHLVVXHRIFRPSHQVDWLRQORRPVODUJHRYHUWKHKRUL]RQ$QGLQWHFKQRORJ\DVORQJDVWKHVWDWHPDLQWDLQVDNHHQLQWHUHVWLQSUHVHUYLQJQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLF VHFXULW\ LQ D IDVWSDFHG DQG ÁXLG LQWHUQDWLRQDO WHFKQRORJ\ HQYLURQPHQW LW ZLOO KDYHWRUHZDUGWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOL]DWLRQRIOLQNDJHVDPRQJGRPHVWLFDQGIRUHLJQ ZLQQHUVHYHQDVLWPRYHVWRFRPSHQVDWHWKHWHFKQRORJ\ORVHUV
Pekkanen and Tsai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ÁHFWVLWVSROLWLFDOXWLOLW\WR-DSDQHVH DQG&KLQHVHDFWRUVZKHWKHUDWWKHVWDWHRUVXEVWDWHOHYHO,QWUDGHDQGLQYHVWPHQW WKH FRPPLWPHQW WR OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LV FOHDUHU RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH HFRQRPLF DFWRUV ZKRDUHÀJKWLQJWRSURWHFWWKHLUFRPSHWLWLYHVWUHQJWKLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV,Q ÀQDQFHLWLVDJDLQSULYDWHDFWRUVWKDWDUHVKRZLQJWKHLUFRPPLWPHQWDQGWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWWKDWLVGUDJJLQJLWVIHHWE\FRQWLQXLQJWRFRPSHQVDWHORVHUV$QG ÀQDOO\LQWHFKQRORJ\WKHUHDOLWLHVRIWHFKQRORJLFDOFRPSHWLWLRQWRGD\DUHPDNLQJ WKHPRYHVE\SULYDWHDFWRUVPRUHFUHGLEOHLQWHUPVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRXWFRPHV WKDQWKRVHRIWKHVWDWH8OWLPDWHO\FRPPLWPHQWWROLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQYDULRXVVHFWRUV LVERXQGHGE\GRPHVWLFSROLWLFV Role of the state :HZRXOGOLNHWRHQGE\UHÁ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´QHZLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWH[WRIGHYHORSPHQWµ²RUZKDWZHKDYHFDOOHG ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,QSUDFWLFHDQGXQOLNHWKH*HUVFKHQNURQLDQPRGHOZKLFKSUHGLFWVDJUHDWHUZKROHVDOHUROHIRUWKHVWDWHLQFRQGLWLRQVRIODWHLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ ZHÀQGDJUHDWGHDORIYDULDWLRQLQWHUPVRIWKHUROHWKDWVWDWHVFDQSOD\LQWKH SURFHVV RI ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ$V WKH FRQWULEXWRUV WR WKLV YROXPH ÀQG WKH IDFW LVWKDWWKHUHODWLYHDXWRQRP\DQGFDSDFLW\RIWKHVWDWHLQERWKFRXQWULHVLVEHLQJ WUDQVIRUPHGZKHWKHUEURXJKWDERXWE\QHZGRPHVWLFRULQWHUQDWLRQDOG\QDPLFV 2QWKLVSRLQWRXUFRQWULEXWRUV·ÀQGLQJVDOHUWXVWRWZRFULWLFDOGLPHQVLRQV$OO RIWKHDXWKRUVZULWLQJRQ-DSDQSRLQWWRWKHHQGXULQJLPSRUWDQFHRIWKH-DSDQHVH VWDWH:KLOHWKH\GRQRWDVVHUWWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHLVWKHVDPHFODVVLFGHYHORSPHQWDO RQH IURP WKH HDUO\ SRVWZDU SHULRG WKH\ VWLOO DVVHUW WKDW UHVLGXHV RI
Late liberalizers ´GHYHORSPHQWDOLVPµFRQWLQXHLQWKHZD\WKDWWKHQHZ-DSDQHVHVWDWHKDVDGDSWHG WRSUHVVXUHVLQKHUHQWLQODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDFURVVWKHPDMRUVHFWRUVLQWKHHFRQRP\ 7KHDXWKRUVRQ&KLQDFHUWDLQO\DJUHHWKDWWKHSDUW\VWDWHUHSUHVHQWVDNH\DFWRULQ WKHSURFHVVHVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKRZHYHUWKH\DOVRGHPRQVWUDWHWKHOLPLWVRIFRKHUHQWVWDWHDFWLRQLQSUDFWLFH7KLVFRQWUDVWZLWK-DSDQPD\VHHPSDUDGR[LFDODWÀUVW JODQFHJLYHQWKDW-DSDQLVDOLEHUDOGHPRFUDF\DQG&KLQDUHPDLQVDXWKRULWDULDQ
Concluding remarks 8OWLPDWHO\WKHÀQGLQJVIURPWKLVYROXPHVKRZWKDWWKHUHDUHVXEVWDQWLDOYDULDWLRQV DQGXQHYHQSURJUHVVWRZDUGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZKLFKVHUYHVDVDFDXWLRQDU\QRWHIRU DQ\RSWLPLVWLFSURMHFWLRQVRIFRQYHUJHQFHWRZDUGPDUNHWEDVHGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ:H GRQRWWKHUHIRUHDVSLUHWRPDNHEROGSUHGLFWLRQVDERXWZKLFKZD\OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ
Pekkanen and Tsai ZLOOSURFHHG7KLVLVDWUDQVLWLRQDOSHULRGRIWUHPHQGRXVXQFHUWDLQW\HVSHFLDOO\IRU FRXQWULHVWKDWKDYHQRWSDUWLFLSDWHGDVDFWLYHO\LQVHWWLQJWKHGRPLQDQWUXOHVRIWKH JDPHLQWKHZRUOGSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\DQGWKHUHDUHDOZD\VFKDOOHQJHVWRVWXG\LQJ DQXQIROGLQJSKHQRPHQRQ-DSDQPD\EHPRYLQJWRZDUGDSRVWGHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH DQG &KLQD LV EHFRPLQJ D SRVWVRFLDOLVW VWDWH MXVW DV ERWK RI WKHLU SULRU GHYHORSPHQWDOVWUDWHJLHVDSSHDUWRKDYHEHFRPHOHVVUHOHYDQWWRHQKDQFLQJWKHLU QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFZHOOEHLQJLQWKHJOREDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\(YHQWKRXJKWKH GHÀQLWLRQDO HQGSRLQWV RI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DUH UHDVRQDEO\ WUDQVSDUHQW RQ SDSHU WKH IROORZLQJFKDSWHUVGHPRQVWUDWHWKHSROLWLFDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOFRPSOH[LW\RIWKLV SURFHVV DFURVV GLIIHUHQW VHFWRUV )RU WKHVH UHDVRQV LW LV SUHPDWXUH WR GHFODUH WKHYLFWRU\RIOLEHUDOL]LQJRXWFRPHVLQSUDFWLFHDQGLPSRUWDQWWRUHFRJQL]HWKH UHOHYDQFHRIDGDSWLYHVWDWHDQGVRFLHWDOSURFHVVHV
Notes )LJXUHV FDOFXODWHG IURP World Trade Organization Annual Report 2004 7DEOH ,,, *LYHQ WKHLU KLVWRULFDO DGYHUVDULDO UHODWLRQVKLS ZH GR QRW VXJJHVW WKDW WKHVH HFRQRPLFÀJXUHVWUDQVODWHLQWRFRUUHVSRQGLQJSROLWLFDOPLJKW 2Q&KLQDVHH:KLWH 2L DQG=ZHLJ ,QGHHG RQH RI WKH ZHOONQRZQ GHSHQGHQF\ WKHRULVWV 3HWHU (YDQV FRQWULEXWHG VXEVWDQWLDOO\WRWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHOLWHUDWXUH(YDQV 3OHDVHQRWHWKDWZHDUHQHLWKHUPDNLQJWKHEURDGHUQRUPDWLYHFODLPWKDWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LVGHVLUDEOHQRUSURSRVLQJWKDWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLVWHOHRORJLFDOO\LQHYLWDEOH,QVWHDGWKH YROXPHLVLQVSLUHGE\WKHSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFUHDOLW\WKDWVWURQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHV IRUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQH[LVWDWWKLVSRLQWLQKLVWRU\ )ULHGPDQ² FROORTXLDOO\UHIHUVWRWKLVDVWKH´JROGHQVWUDLWMDFNHWµ :DGHPDNHVWKLVSRLQWQLFHO\LQ%HUJHUDQG'RUH² :H DFNQRZOHGJH RI FRXUVH WKDW 2(&' FRXQWULHV H[KLELW WUHPHQGRXV YDULDWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI WKHLU GHJUHH RI SXEOLF²SULYDWH FRRSHUDWLRQ SURYLVLRQ RI VRFLDO ZHOIDUH VHUYLFHVHWF3$+DOODQG6RVNLFH 2I FRXUVH -DSDQ ZDV DFWLYH LQ WKH ZRUOG WUDGLQJ V\VWHP SULRU WR EXW ZH DUH LQWHUHVWHGLQVSHFLI\LQJWKHPRUHUHFHQWFULWLFDOMXQFWXUHWKDWSXVKHGLWRQWRDSDWKRI GHHSHUUHIRUPVVHH:RRG )RUDUHJLRQDOSHUVSHFWLYHRQUHDFWLRQVWRWKHFULVLVVHH3HPSHOD
Revisiting the Japanese economic model T. J. Pempel
:K\ UHYLVLW WKH -DSDQHVH HFRQRPLF PRGHO" +DYH HYHQWV QRW SURYHQ LW WR EH LQWHOOHFWXDOO\ÁDZHGDVZHOODVSROLWLFDOO\DQGHFRQRPLFDOO\LUUHOHYDQW"'XULQJ WKH ODWH V DQG HDUO\ V DLUSRUW ERRNVWDOOV EXOJHG ZLWK FRXQWOHVV WLWOHV EUHDWKOHVVO\ SURPLVLQJ WR GLVFORVH ´WKH VHFUHWV EHKLQG WKH -DSDQHVH HFRQRPLF PLUDFOHµ RU SUHGLFWLQJ WKDW WKH WZHQW\ÀUVW FHQWXU\ ZRXOG EHORQJ WR -DSDQ RU $VLD 3ROLF\PDNHUV DFURVV (XURSH DQG 1RUWK$PHULFD WUHPEOHG QHUYRXVO\ LQ DQWLFLSDWLRQRIDQLQHYLWDEOH´-DSDQHVHWDNHRYHUµ7KHQVXGGHQO\-DSDQZDVPLUHG LQWKHVZDPS\DIWHUHIIHFWVRIDFODVVLFDVVHWEXEEOHZKLFKDIWHULWEXUVWLQ OHIWWKHFRXQWU\PLUHGLQRYHUDGHFDGHRIXQSUHFHGHQWHGVOXPSJURVVQDWLRQDO SURGXFW*13 JURZWKZDVWKHORZHVWLQWKH2(&'WKH\HQZDVSHUFHQWEHORZ LWVKLJKWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUIDFHGQRQSHUIRUPLQJORDQVIRXUWRVL[WLPHV JUHDWHUWKDQWKRVHWKDWFRQIURQWHGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGXULQJLWVVDYLQJVDQGORDQ FULVLVRIWKHVXQHPSOR\PHQWFDWDSXOWHGWRWKHKLJKHVWOHYHOVVLQFHWKH\HDUV LPPHGLDWHO\IROORZLQJ:RUOG:DU,,DQGSXEOLFVHFWRUGHEWDVDSHUFHQWDJHRI *13ZDVWKHKLJKHVWLQWKHLQGXVWULDOZRUOGZKLOHWKH1LNNHLLQGH[KLWDVL[WHHQ \HDUORZ$VLD·VIRUPHUEHKHPRWKKDGEHFRPHDOLPSLQJ/LOOLSXWLDQ 0HDQZKLOHDVWKHHGLWRUVWRWKLVYROXPHVWUHVVLQWKHÀ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²$WWKHWXUQRIWKHFHQWXU\LWZDV WKH3HRSOH·V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD35& IDUPRUHWKDQ-DSDQWKDWZDVDWWUDFWLQJ WKHDWWHQWLRQRISROLF\PDNHUVEXVLQHVVOHDGHUVDQGLQYHVWRUVZRUOGZLGH8QGHU VXFKFRQGLWLRQVZK\GHYRWHVHULRXVDWWHQWLRQWRD-DSDQHVH´PRGHOµWKDWVHHPV REYLRXVO\ WR KDYH EHHQ D OLPLWHG LI QRW GLVDVWURXV SUHVFULSWLRQ IRU HFRQRPLF LPSURYHPHQW" 7KLV FKDSWHU VXJJHVWV WKDW WKHUH LV VWLOO D QHHG WR DVVHVV DQG XQGHUVWDQG WKH -DSDQHVHHFRQRPLFPRGHO,WDUJXHVWKDWGHVSLWHWKHVXEVHTXHQWGLIÀFXOWLHVIDFHG E\WKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\RI-DSDQWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHOWKDWZDVJHQHU-
Pempel DWHGWRH[SODLQLWVHDUOLHUVXFFHVVHVDVZHOODVWKRVHRI6RXWK.RUHDDQG7DLZDQ DWDPLQLPXP LVZRUWK\RIUHWHQWLRQDOEHLWZLWKVRPHUHDVVHVVPHQW,QGHHGDV ZLOOEHDUJXHGEHORZPDQ\RI-DSDQ·VFXUUHQWHFRQRPLFSUREOHPVDULVHIURPWKH GLIÀ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ÀWIURPLPPHQVHO\KLJKHUVWDQGDUGVRIOLYLQJWKDQLVWKHFDVHLQFRXQWULHVWR ZKLFK -DSDQ ZDV FRPSDUDEOH WKUHH RU IRXU GHFDGHV HDUOLHU:KHWKHU LW GRHV VR VXFFHVVIXOO\VWUDWHJLFDOO\RUXQZLOOLQJO\DVGLVFXVVHGLQWKHRWKHU-DSDQFKDSWHUV WRWKLVYROXPHWKHIDFWLVWKDW-DSDQDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\LV IDUEHWWHUSRLVHGHFRQRPLFDOO\WRGHDOZLWKWKHQHZZRUOGSDUDGLJPRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWKDQLWZDVLQWKHVRUV1RUVKRXOGRQHGLVFRXQWWKHLPSRUWDQFH RI-DSDQHVHHFRQRPLFVXFFHVVIRUWKHUHVWRI$VLDPDQ\RIZKRVHJRYHUQPHQWV H[SOLFLWO\ VRXJKW WR HPXODWH -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQWDO SDWWHUQV 'XULQJ WKH ODVW TXDUWHUFHQWXU\DPRQJDOOWKHZRUOG·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ÁDZVLQWKHLUDSSURDFKHVWRJURZWK-DSDQHVH WURXEOHVGRQRWDVLVWRRRIWHQFRQWHQGHGSURYLGHLQFRQWURYHUWLEOHHYLGHQFHWKDW FHUWDLQ DOOHJHGO\ XQGHUO\LQJ SULQFLSOHV RI ´PDUNHW HFRQRPLFVµ WUDQVFHQG JHRJUDSK\DQGDGPLWRIQRORQJODVWLQJH[FHSWLRQV1HLWKHU-DSDQQRU$VLDJHQHUDOO\ VKRXOG VHUYH DV D ZDUQLQJ WR RWKHUV DERXW WKH GDQJHUV RI WU\LQJ WR ÁRXW$GDP 6PLWK DQG RI LQWHUIHULQJ ZLWK ´IUHH PDUNHWVµ LQ FDSLWDO ÁRZV DQG WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI JRRGV ,I -DSDQ OLNH RWKHU FRXQWULHV RI WKH ZRUOG PXVW QRZ DGMXVW WR WKHSUHYDLOLQJHFRQRPLFSDUDGLJPRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLWLVKLJKO\XQOLNHO\WRDGMXVW WKURXJKEOLQGHPXODWLRQ5DWKHUDJDLQDVWKHLQGLYLGXDOFKDSWHUVE\3HNNDQHQ 6ROLV.DWDGDDQG$QFKRUGRJX\VKRZWKHDGDSWDWLRQRI-DSDQ·VIXWXUHHFRQRPLF PL[LVDOPRVWFHUWDLQWRLQYROYHUHVLGXHVRI´GHYHORSPHQWDOLVPµRQWRZKLFKZLOO FRPH QHZ JUDIWLQJV RI QHROLEHUDOLVP -XVW DV HDUOLHU GHFDGHV RI -DSDQHVH VXFFHVVZHUHQRWHDVLO\H[SODLQHGWKURXJKQHRFODVVLFDOHFRQRPLFVVRWRRWKHUHFHQW SUREOHPVE\WKHPVHOYHVVD\OLWWOHDERXWWKHUHODWLYHVWUHQJWKVRUZHDNQHVVHVRIWKH GLVFLSOLQHRIHFRQRPLFVRURIWKHLQHYLWDELOLW\RIZRUOGZLGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ5DWKHU
Revisiting the Japanese economic model WKHPL[RI-DSDQ·VVXFFHVVHVSOXVGRZQWXUQVVKHGVYDOXDEOHOLJKWQRWRQO\RQWKH OLPLWDWLRQVHQGHPLFWRHDUO\WKHRUL]LQJDERXWWKHVRXUFHVRI-DSDQHVHJURZWKEXW RQWKDWPRGHO·VLQKHUHQWSURPLVHVDVZHOO$QGPDQ\RIWKHSOXVHVHQGHPLFLQ GHYHORSPHQWDOLVPDUHOLNHO\WRVXUYLYHDQ\RQVODXJKWRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ 7KLVFKDSWHULVRUJDQL]HGLQWRWKUHHPDLQVHFWLRQV7KHÀUVWUHFDSLWXODWHVZKDW , VHH DV WKH PDMRU FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH YDULRXV -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQWDO PRGHOV 7KHVHFRQGWKHQH[DPLQHVKRZVHYHUDORIWKHVHFRPSRQHQWVFRQWULEXWHGWRVXEVHTXHQWHFRQRPLFSUREOHPVIDFHGE\-DSDQDVZHOODVPDQ\RIWKHRWKHU(DVW$VLDQ QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLHV)LQDOO\DWKLUGVHFWLRQVXJJHVWVOHVVRQVWKDWPLJKWEHFXOOHG IURP WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI VXFFHVVHV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH PRGHOV RI -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQWHVSHFLDOO\DVFDOOVIRUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQWLQXHXQDEDWHGZRUOGZLGH
Key components of Japanese development models 2QHRIWKHJUHDWSX]]OHVRIFRPSDUDWLYHSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\FRQFHUQVKRZQDWLRQ VWDWHV FDQ LPSURYH ERWK WKHLU UHODWLYH DQG WKHLU DEVROXWH ZHOOEHLQJ +RZ GR QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLHVWKDWDUHUHODWLYHO\XQGHUGHYHORSHGDWRQHSRLQWLQWLPH´FDWFK XSµWRWKRVHWKDWDUHPRUHDGYDQFHG")RUWKHPRVWSDUWWKH\KDYHQRW6LQFHWKH VIRUH[DPSOHWKHUHODWLYHVKDUHRIZRUOG*13KHOGE\WKHULFKHVWSHUFHQW RIWKHZRUOG·VSRSXODWLRQKDVLQFUHDVHGGUDPDWLFDOO\ZKLOHWKDWDFFRXQWHGIRUE\ WKHERWWRPSHUFHQWKDVVKUXQN7KHUDWLRZDVLQLQDQG PRUHWKDQE\WKHWXUQRIWKHFHQWXU\)ULHGHQDQG/DNH $KRVWRIUDWKHUSHVVLPLVWLFVFKRODUVKLSKDVGHYHORSHGDURXQGZRUOGV\VWHPV WKHRU\DQGGHSHQGHQF\WKHRU\DUJXLQJWRYDU\LQJGHJUHHVWKDWWKHUHODWLYHLQWHUQDWLRQDOSHFNLQJRUGHUUHPDLQVHVVHQWLDOO\À[HGRYHUWLPH
Pempel KDGEHHQZHOFRPHGLQWRWKH2(&'DVDPHPEHURIWKHLQGXVWULDOL]HGEORF%RWK FRXQWULHVURDUHGSDVWRWKHUVWKDWZHUHRQFHWKHLUHFRQRPLFSHHUV7REHVXUHDOO WKUHHFRXQWULHVSURYLGHGH[FHOOHQWH[DPSOHVWKDWDQ\GLYLVLRQRIZRUOGHFRQRPLF SRZHULVPRUHYDULDEOHWKDQFRQVWDQW$FRXQWU\´GRZQµDWRQHSRLQWLQWLPHFRXOG ORRNWRWKHFRXQWULHVRI1RUWKHDVW$VLDGXULQJWKHSRVWZDUSHULRGDQGVHHSURRI WKDWPRYLQJ´XSµZDVQRWLPSRVVLEOH 9LUWXDOO\DOOVWXGLHVRI-DSDQDJUHHWKDWHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWLVSRVVLEOHERWK DEVROXWHO\DQGUHODWLYHO\
Revisiting the Japanese economic model LVKLJKO\SROLWLFDOWKHVHFRQGLVHFRQRPLF7KH\VKDUHWKHYLHZWKDWQDWLRQVFDQ DFKLHYH VLJQLÀFDQW LPSURYHPHQWV LQ WKHLU HFRQRPLHV ZLWKRXW WKH ZLGH GLVSDULWLHVEHWZHHQULFKDQGSRRUIRXQGLQVRPDQ\GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV'HVSLWHVXFK DJUHHPHQWKRZHYHUWKHWZRPRGHOVLGHQWLI\TXLWHGLIIHUHQWFDXVHVIRU-DSDQHVH DGYDQFHVUHÁHFWLQJWKHYHU\GLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVWRSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\WDNHQE\ SROLWLFDOVFLHQWLVWVDQGHFRQRPLVWV 7KHÀUVWPRGHOFRQFHQWUDWHVSULPDULO\RQWKHVWHHULQJUROHSOD\HGE\DKLJKO\ PHULWRFUDWLF QDWLRQDO EXUHDXFUDF\ %\ IDU WKH EHVW NQRZQ RI WKHVH LV WKDW RI &KDOPHUV-RKQVRQDUWLFXODWHGÀUVWLQKLVYROXPHMITI and the Japanese Miracle-RKQVRQ·VDUJXPHQWFHQWHUVRQWKHFRQFHSWRIWKH´GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµ DQGKLVQRWLRQLVUHÁ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ÀFLQGXVWULDO SURMHFWVXVLQJVSHFLÀFFULWHULDIRUVHOHFWLRQUHVLVWSROLWLFDOSUHVVXUHVIURPSRSXODU IRUFHVVXFKDVFRQVXPHUVDQGRUJDQL]HGODERULQVXODWHWKHLUGRPHVWLFHFRQRPLHV IURP H[WHQVLYH IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO SHQHWUDWLRQ DQG PRVW HVSHFLDOO\ FDUU\ WKURXJK DVXVWDLQHGSURMHFWRIHYHULPSURYLQJSURGXFWLYLW\WHFKQRORJLFDOVRSKLVWLFDWLRQ DQGLQFUHDVLQJZRUOGPDUNHWVKDUHV,QLWLDOO\DQGPRVWIRUFHIXOO\DUWLFXODWHGZLWK VSHFLÀFUHIHUHQFHWR-DSDQWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHOKDVDOVREHHQZLGHO\ DSSOLHGWR6RXWK.RUHDDQG7DLZDQ 7KLV VWDWHFHQWULF SROLWLFDO PRGHO FRQFHQWUDWHV DWWHQWLRQ RQ VHYHUDO YDOXDEOH HOHPHQWVZKLFKDJDLQQHHGWREHFHQWHUVWDJHLQGHEDWHVRYHUODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ )LUVWDXWKRUVVWUHVVLQJRQHRUDQRWKHUYDULDQWRIWKH´GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµW\SLFDOO\JLYHSULPDF\WRWKHLPSRUWDQFHRISROLWLFDOFKRLFHLQWKHVHWWLQJRIHFRQRPLF SULRULWLHV DQG LQ FUHDWLQJ HFRQRPLF LQVWLWXWLRQV 0DUNHWV VXFK DXWKRUV DVVXPH RSHUDWHQHLWKHULQSROLWLFDOYDFXXPVQRUDV´LQYLVLEOHKDQGVµ5DWKHUWKH\IXQFWLRQZLWKLQVSHFLÀFERXQGDULHVVHWIRUWKHPE\WKHSROLWLFDOO\SRZHUIXO6WDWHRIÀFLDOVLQSDUWLFXODUVHQLRUEXUHDXFUDWVDUHVHHQWREHFULWLFDOWRWKHVWUXFWXULQJRI SROLWLFDOFKRLFHVDQGSXEOLFSROLFLHVFRQGXFLYHWRJURZWK$VVXFKWKHVHPRGHOV VWDUWZLWKDSUHVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHNH\WRXQGHUVWDQGLQJHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWLV DQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWH[HUFLVLQJVWDWHSRZHUUDWKHUWKDQDQXQVWUXFWXUHGPDVV RIHFRQRPLFPD[LPL]HUV,QGHHGLQRQHRIWKHPRVWH[SOLFLWO\DQWLPDUNHWDSKRULVPV WR HPHUJH IURP WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH OLWHUDWXUH$OLFH$PVGHQ DUJXHVWKDWWKH6RXWK.RUHDQHFRQRP\GLGVRZHOOSUHFLVHO\EHFDXVHJRYHUQPHQW RIÀFLDOV´GHOLEHUDWHO\JRWSULFHVZURQJµ ,QDGGLWLRQVWDWHFHQWULFPRGHOVIRFXVKHDYLO\RQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIJRYHUQPHQWGLUHFWHG LQGXVWULDO SROLFLHV WKDW WUDQVIHU UHVRXUFHV WR LQFUHDVLQJO\ KLJKHU YDOXHDGGHGVHFWRUVRIWKHHFRQRP\7KXVLQYHVWPHQWVDQGSURGXFWLRQPRYHIURP ELF\FOHVWRPRWRUF\FOHVWRFDUVDQGIURPUDGLRVWRWHOHYLVLRQVWRFRPSXWHUV(YHQ PRUHLPSRUWDQWO\VXFKLQGXVWULDOSROLFLHVDUHH[SOLFLWO\OLQNHGWRWKHSURGXFWLRQ
Pempel RILQWHUQDWLRQDOO\FRPSHWLWLYHJRRGVPDNLQJIRUDGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJ\EDVHGRQ H[SRUWOHGJURZWKUDWKHUWKDQLPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQ $ÀQDOHOHPHQWWKDWGHPDQGVDWWHQWLRQLVRSHQQHVVRUFORVHGQHVVWRWKHRXWVLGH ZRUOGZKLFKLVFULWLFDOIRUGHEDWHVRYHUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ:KLOHLQGLYLGXDOVWXGLHV GLIIHURQVSHFLÀFVPRVWGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHUHVHDUFKXQGHUVFRUHVWKHH[WHQWWR ZKLFKGHYHORSPHQWRSHUDWHVDVD]HURVXPXVDJDLQVWWKHPQDWLRQDOSURMHFWRI ´FDWFKXSµ*RYHUQPHQWVDFWWRHQKDQFHWKHLULQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKH´QDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWµGHÀQHGDOPRVWLQYDULDEO\DVUDSLGJURZWKLQWKHLQWHUHVWVRIGRPHVWLFUDWKHU WKDQIRUHLJQRZQHUVDQGSURGXFHUV*RYHUQPHQWVDQGGRPHVWLFEXVLQHVVHVDUH SUHVXPDEO\ FORVHO\ HQPHVKHG ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU GXULQJ WKHLU TXHVW IRU QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLFLPSURYHPHQW7KHFRPPRQLQWHUHVWVRIWKHVHWZRDUHSUHVXPHGWRRXWZHLJKDQ\VSHFLÀFGLVDJUHHPHQWVWKH\PLJKWKDYH0RVWW\SLFDOO\WKHGRPHVWLF HFRQRP\LVNHSWLQVXODWHGIURPSHQHWUDWLRQE\IRUHLJQFDSLWDOSURGXFWVDQGPDQDJHUV5HODWHGO\ZKLOHQDWLRQDOFRQVXPHUVPD\QRWEHLJQRUHGLQWKHSXUVXLWRI QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFLPSURYHPHQWWKHLUVSHFLÀFLQWHUHVWVDVFRQVXPHUVDUHXQTXHVWLRQDEO\VHFRQGDU\WRWKRVHRISURGXFHUV+HQFHLIFKHDSHUSULFHVIRUFRQVXPHUV UHTXLUHWKHRSHQLQJRIWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\WRIRUHLJQLPSRUWVRUSURGXFWVWKHQ WUXO\ IUHH WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQW PXVW EH NHSW VHFRQGDU\ WR PHUFDQWLOLVW SURWHFWLRQLVP,QWKLVUHJDUGGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWLVWVDUHIUHTXHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKJOLE FOLFKpVDERXW´-DSDQ,QFµRU´.RUHD,QFµ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·V UDSLGJURZWKZDVWKHVWXG\HGLWHGE\3DWULFNDQG5RVRYVN\HQWLWOHG Asia’s New Giant: How the Japanese Economy Works3DWULFNDQG5RVRYVN\HVS $V D VXPPDU\ RI WKHLU SRVLWLRQ WKH\ VWDWHG ´2XU YLHZ LV WKDW ZKLOH WKH >-DSDQHVH@JRYHUQPHQWKDVFHUWDLQO\SURYLGHGDIDYRUDEOHHQYLURQPHQWWKHPDLQ LPSHWXVWRJURZWKKDVEHHQSULYDWH²EXVLQHVVLQYHVWPHQWGHPDQGSULYDWHVDYLQJ DQGLQGXVWULRXVDQGVNLOOHGODERURSHUDWLQJLQDPDUNHWRULHQWHGHQYLURQPHQWRI UHODWLYHSULFHVµ$QHYHQPRUHUHFHQWPDUNHWIRFXVHGVWXG\ZDVWKHVWXG\RI WKH:RUOG%DQNHQWLWOHGThe East Asian Miracle:RUOG%DQNHVS² ² 7KLVERRNSURPSWHGE\WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWDVDZD\WRHQFRXUDJH JUHDWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJDPRQJHFRQRPLVWVRIWKHZD\VLQZKLFK-DSDQDQGRWKHU FRXQWULHVLQ$VLDKDGGHYHORSHGDFWXDOO\WRRNDQDSSURDFKGUDPDWLFDOO\GLIIHUHQW IURPWKDWRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWLVWV:KLOHVHQVLWLYHWRWKHSRVVLEOHFRQWULEX-
Revisiting the Japanese economic model WLRQVRIJRYHUQPHQWSROLFLHVWRJURZWKLWFRQFOXGHGWKDW´,QODUJHPHDVXUHWKH +3$(V>KLJKSHUIRUPLQJ$VLDQHFRQRPLHV@DFKLHYHGKLJKJURZWKE\JHWWLQJWKH EDVLFVULJKW3ULYDWHGRPHVWLFLQYHVWPHQWDQGUDSLGO\JURZLQJKXPDQFDSLWDOZHUH WKHSULQFLSDOHQJLQHVRIJURZWKµ ,QWKLVFRQWH[WPRVWHFRQRPLFPRGHOVDUHTXLFNWRDFNQRZOHGJHWKDWGLUHFWHG FUHGLW PD\ KDYH FRQWULEXWHG WR -DSDQ·V DQG $VLD·V LPSURYHPHQWV EXW ODUJHO\ LQVRIDUDVÀ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´OHWPDUNHWV ZRUNµ 7KHWZRFDPSV·FODLPVPLUURUWKHSHUHQQLDOGLVSXWHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRGLVFLSOLQHVIURPZKLFKWKH\HPHUJH:KHQDQGKRZGRSROLWLFDOVWUXFWXUHVDQGSROLFLHVVKDSHHFRQRPLFFKRLFHV":KHQDQGKRZDUHWKH\LQVWHDGWKHRXWJURZWKRI XQGHUO\LQJ HFRQRPLF ORJLF" 7KLV TXHVWLRQ LV DV UHOHYDQW WR WKH SDVW RI -DSDQ·V HFRQRPLFPRGHODVLWLVWRWKHIXWXUHRI-DSDQ·VOLEHUDOL]DWLRQHIIRUWV+LQGVLJKW VXJJHVWVWKDWHDFKVHWRIFODLPVFRQWULEXWHGVLJQLÀFDQWEXWSDUWLDOLQVLJKWVLQWR ZK\WKHHFRQRP\RI-DSDQJUHZDVTXLFNO\DQGZLWKWKHSDUWLFXODUFKDUDFWHUWKDW LW GLG &OHDUO\ -DSDQ·V SROLWLFDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGLWV SUHYDLOLQJSROLF\SURÀOH VHW FRQGLWLRQVXQGHUZKLFKLWZDVSRVVLEOHIRU-DSDQHVHRZQHGFRPSDQLHVWRGHYHORS DQGWKULYHDWKRPH7KH\DOVRHQFRXUDJHGUDSLGLPSURYHPHQWVLQSURGXFWLYLW\DQG LQWKHWHFKQRORJLFDOVRSKLVWLFDWLRQRISURGXFWV$QGZLWKGRPHVWLFPDUNHWVZHOO SURWHFWHGDQGRIWHQZLWKGRPHVWLFFRQVXPHUVXQGHUJLUGLQJSURÀWPDUJLQVDQXPEHURI-DSDQ·VPRVWLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\RULHQWHGFRPSDQLHVZHUHDEOHWRH[SRUWWKHLU LQFUHDVLQJO\FRPSHWLWLYHSURGXFWVWRJOREDOPDUNHWV,WLVLPSRVVLEOHWRLPDJLQH WKDWWKHVHFRPSDQLHVDWWKHPLFUROHYHODQGWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\DWWKHPDFUR OHYHOFRXOGKDYHDFKLHYHGWKHVXFFHVVHVWKH\GLGZLWKRXWWKHSROLWLFDOVWUXFWXUHVDQG SROLFLHVWKDWSUHYDLOHGLQ-DSDQIURPWKHHDUO\VXQWLOWKHV$WWKHVDPH WLPHRQO\E\H[SORLWLQJJOREDOPDUNHWRSSRUWXQLWLHVWKURXJKSULFHDQGSURGXFW TXDOLW\FRXOGVRPDQ\RI-DSDQ·VJOREDOFRPSDQLHVJDLQPDUNHWVKDUHVDVUDSLGO\ DVWKH\GLG1RWDWDOOLQFLGHQWDOO\KRZHYHUE\JXDUDQWHHLQJGRPHVWLFSURWHFWLRQ WRSRWHQWLDOO\GHFOLQLQJVHFWRUVWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHFUHDWHGDFRQVWLWXHQF\IRU HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDQGUHGXFHGWKHSRWHQWLDOSROLWLFDORSSRVLWLRQIURPVORZ PRYLQJRUGRPHVWLFDOO\EDVHGÀUPVDQGVHFWRUVWRWKHEURDGHUDJHQGDRIUDSLG LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ:LWKDVWURQJVWDWHFRPPLWPHQWWRJLYLQJWKHPVHPLJXDUDQWHHG VOLFHVRIWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWVXFKFRQVWLWXHQFLHVKDGOLWWOHLQFHQWLYHWRUHVLVWWKH JOREDOPDUNHWRULHQWDWLRQVRIRWKHUJRYHUQPHQWSROLFLHV
Pempel FRPSHWLWLYH ÀUPV DW KLJK FRVWV WR GRPHVWLF FRQVXPHUV 7KH PRGHO WKDW OHG WR VXFFHVVDOVREXLOWLQPDQ\LPSRUWDQWEXWOHVVWKDQIXOO\H[DPLQHGHOHPHQWVWKDW VXEVHTXHQWO\OHGWRLWVHYHQWXDOVWDJQDWLRQDQGWKDWFRQWLQXHWREHLPSRUWDQWHOHPHQWVLQFRQFHUQVRYHU-DSDQ·VODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ)XUWKHUPRUHSHULRGVRIUDSLG JURZWK REVFXUHG VRPH RI WKHVH PRUH YLWDO FRPSRQHQWV RI SDVW HFRQRPLF VXFFHVVHV3DUWLFXODUO\DIWHUUHFHQWHFRQRPLFGLIÀFXOWLHVLQ-DSDQDQGPXFKRIWKH UHVWRI$VLDLWLVWKXVFULWLFDOWRH[SORUHWKHOLPLWDWLRQVWKDWZHUHEXLOWLQWRWKH -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQW PRGHOV DQG WR UHH[DPLQH WKHVH PRGHOV IURP WKH PRUH FRQWHPSRUDU\YDQWDJHSRLQWRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ
Limitations on the Japanese economic development model $V WKH EORRP IDGHG IURP WKH URVH RI -DSDQHVH HFRQRPLF JURZWK LW EHFDPH LQFUHDVLQJO\ FOHDU WKDW WKH YDULRXV GHYHORSPHQW PRGHOV GLG OLWWOH WR SUHGLFW WKH VXEVHTXHQW-DSDQHVHÀ]]OH1HYHUWKHOHVVSRVWGHYHORSPHQWDOSUREOHPVLQ-DSDQ DQGDFURVV$VLDVKRXOGHQFRXUDJHXVQRWWRGLVFDUGWKHPRGHOVFRPSOHWHO\EXW UDWKHU WR VHDUFK IRU WKRVH RI WKHLU HOHPHQWV WKDW ZHUH XQGHUWKHRUL]HG DQG WR H[DPLQHKRZWKHVHLQWXUQFRQWULEXWHGWRODWHUHFRQRPLFSUREOHPV %RWKRIWKHPRGHOVDGYDQFHGWRH[SODLQ-DSDQHVHGHYHORSPHQWLQP\YLHZ SDLG LQDGHTXDWH DWWHQWLRQ WR WZR YLWDO IDFWRUV 7KURXJK WLPH·V UHDUYLHZ PLUURU LWLVSRVVLEOHWRVHHKRZFHUWDLQHOHPHQWVUDUHO\HPSKDVL]HGZHUHLQIDFWFULWLFDO WR LWV GHYHORSPHQW GXULQJ WKH ERRP \HDUV ²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ÀUVWIRUW\\HDUVRUVRDIWHUWKH HQGRI:RUOG:DU,,ZHUHODUJHO\FRQGXFLYHWR-DSDQHVHJURZWK+RZHYHUVXFK EHQHYROHQWFRQGLWLRQVZHUHIDUIURPLUUHOHYDQWWRWKHVXFFHVVHVDFKLHYHGGXULQJ WKRVH\HDUV$QGZKHQWKHVHFRQGLWLRQVFKDQJHGLQVHYHUDOFULWLFDOZD\VE\WKH PLGGOHRIWKHVWKHLULQÁ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ÁH[LELOLW\DQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOVWLFNLQHVV1RUGLGWKH\ DGGUHVVWKHZD\VLQZKLFKGHPRJUDSKLFDQGHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVHQGHPLFWRWKH PRGHOZHUHDOPRVWJXDUDQWHHGWRFKDQJHLQZD\VWKDWZRXOGUHYHUVHWKHLUHDUOLHU
Revisiting the Japanese economic model FRQVHTXHQFHVEXWVHH(YDQV+DJJDUG )RUERWKUHDVRQVIDFWRUVWKDW FRQWULEXWHGWRUDSLG-DSDQHVHJURZWKDWHDUOLHUWLPHVZHUHRIWHQWKHVRXUFHVRI SUREOHPVDQGGHWHULRUDWLRQDWVXEVHTXHQWVWDJHV &RQVLGHU ÀUVW WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRQGLWLRQV )HZ LI DQ\ RI WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO PRGHOV IRFXVHG RQ -DSDQ JLYH H[SOLFLW DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH LQGLVSHQVDEOH FRQWULEXWLRQPDGHE\SRVLWLYHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVWR-DSDQHVHDQG1RUWKHDVW$VLDQ HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW7KLVLVKLJKO\LURQLFVLQFHRQHRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOJRDOV VKDUHG E\ -DSDQ 6RXWK .RUHD DQG7DLZDQ ZDV WKH LPSURYHPHQW RI WKHLU HFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVrelative to other states$VDFRQVHTXHQFHDOOWKUHHKDGWRDFW ZLWKVHQVLWLYLW\WRUHJLRQDODQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOSRZHUEDODQFHVDQGWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVWKHVHSURYLGHG
Pempel 6WDWHVJRYHUQPHQWV6HFUHWSD\PHQWVIURPWKH&HQWUDO,QWHOOLJHQFH$JHQF\&,$ DQGRWKHU86DJHQFLHVZHUHDOVROLEHUDOO\VSUHDGDPRQJ86VXSSRUWHUVDQGSUR 8QLWHG6WDWHVLQVWLWXWLRQVLQDOOWKUHHFRXQWULHV 7KHVWUDWHJLFVXVWHQDQFHJLYHQWRDOOWKUHHUHJLPHVE\WKH86PLOLWDU\ZDVRI JUHDWLPSRUWDQFHWRWKHLUFRQWLQXDWLRQDQGHFRQRPLFZHOOEHLQJ0LOLWDU\REMHFWLYHV LQVXUHG WKDW$PHULFD ZRXOG EH WKH H[WHUQDO SDWURQ IRU UHJLPH VXFFHVV LQ 1RUWKHDVW$VLD$PHULFD·VVWUDWHJLFSROLFLHVRSHQHGXSVSDFHIRUWKHVHWKUHHFRXQWULHVWRSXUVXHWKHLURZQHFRQRPLFSROLFLHV-DSDQ·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
Revisiting the Japanese economic model PDUNHWUDWHV3URÀWVJHQHUDWHGE\QDWLRQDOO\RZQHGFRPSDQLHVUHPDLQHGODUJHO\ ZLWKLQQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVKLIWWRDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWH[WIDUPRUHIDYRUDEOHWRPDUNHW RULHQWHG HFRQRPLFV DOO WKUHH RI WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV FKDQJHG VXEVWDQWLDOO\ E\ WKH PLGWRODWHVLQZD\VWKDWKDGSURIRXQGDIIHFWVRQFRQWLQXHGGHYHORSPHQWDO SRVVLELOLWLHVLQ1RUWKHDVW$VLD:KHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVHPHUJHGIURP:RUOG:DU ,,LWVGRPHVWLF*13ZDVURXJKO\VL[WLPHVODUJHUWKDQWKHZRUOG·VVHFRQGODUJHVWHFRQRP\%ULWDLQ0HDQZKLOH-DSDQ6RXWK.RUHDDQG7DLZDQZHUHDOOYHU\ PXFKZHDNHUWKDQWKH\ZHUHE\WKHV$VDFRQVHTXHQFHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV FRXOGFKHDSO\DQGHDVLO\DIIRUGWREHHFRQRPLFDOO\JHQHURXVWRDOOWKUHHDWOLWWOH FRVWWRLWVRZQGRPHVWLFZHOOEHLQJ&HUWDLQLQGLYLGXDO86ÀUPVRUVHFWRUVGLG VXIIHU DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH JURZWK LQ H[SRUW FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV DPRQJ$VLDQ À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´GRVRPHWKLQJµWRSURWHFW$PHULFDQLQGXVWULHVDQGMREVDQGWRUHFWLI\WKHJURZLQJ WUDGHJDS7KHUHVXOWSDUWLFXODUO\ZLWK-DSDQZDVDYDULHW\RIVRFDOOHG´YROXQWDU\H[SRUWDJUHHPHQWVµVHFWRUVSHFLÀFWDUJHWVIRUPDUNHWRSHQLQJVDQGHIIRUWVWR UHPRYHVWUXFWXUDOLPSHGLPHQWVWRLQYHVWPHQWV6XEVHTXHQWO\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV VKLIWHGWRPRQHWDU\DJUHHPHQWVLQFOXGLQJWKH3OD]DDQG/RXYUH$FFRUGVRI DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH FXUUHQF\ UHDOLJQPHQWV DPRQJ WKH PDMRU SRZHUV LQFOXGLQJ -DSDQ ZHUH GHVLJQHG WR UHFRQÀJXUH HDFK FRXQWU\·V LQFHQWLYHV IRU H[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWV0RUHUHFHQWO\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDSSOLHGDKRVWRISUHVVXUHV WRRSHQXSWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWVRIDOOWKUHHWR86LQYHVWPHQWDQGH[SRUWV 6XFKFKDQJHVLQ86EHKDYLRUPDGHLWLQFUHDVLQJO\SUREOHPDWLFIRUROGSDWWHUQV RI(DVW$VLDQLQVXODULW\WRFRQWLQXHUHTXLULQJVWDWHVWRDGDSWWRQHZUHDOLWLHV(YHU PRUHKROHVZHUHSXQFKHGLQ$VLD·VKRWKRXVHVH[SRVLQJGRPHVWLFPDQXIDFWXUHUV LQWKHFR]LO\LQVXODWHGKRPHPDUNHWVWRWKHFKLOOLQJZLQGVRIIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQ 2ISDUWLFXODULPSRUWDQFHZDVWKHIDFWWKDWWKHFXUUHQF\UHDOLJQPHQWVRI3OD]DDQG /RXYUHDIIHFWHGQRWRQO\WKHYDOXHRIWKH-DSDQHVH\HQEXWDOVRWKURXJKULSSOH HIIHFWVWKHYDOXHVRIERWKWKHZRQDQGWKHQHZ7DLZDQGROODU $OOWKUHH$VLDQFXUUHQFLHVMXPSHGYLVjYLVWKH86GROODUWKXVXQGHUFXWWLQJ WKHSULFHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIH[SRUWVIURPWKHVHFRXQWULHV0RUHRYHUVWURQJHUFXUUHQF\YDOXHVDOVROHGWRZDYHVRIRXWJRLQJLQYHVWPHQWE\FRPSDQLHVKHDGTXDUWHUHG LQDOOWKUHHFRXQWULHVDVRYHUVHDVSULFHVRIODQGODERUDQGSURGXFWLRQEHFDPH LUUHVLVWLEO\FKHDSHUVHHinter alia1DXJKWRQ3HPSHOF &RPSDQLHV WKDWZHUHRQFHODUJHO\GRPHVWLFSURGXFHUVVXEMHFWWRQDWLRQDOPRQHWDU\DQGFDSLWDO DOORFDWLRQSROLFLHVEHFDPHIDUPRUHUHJLRQDORULQWHUQDWLRQDOLQWKHLUSURGXFWLRQ DQGIDUOHVVVXEMHFWWRQDWLRQDOFDSLWDOFRQWUROV$VPDQ\RIWKHVHFRPSDQLHVVHW XSRSHUDWLRQVDEURDGVKDUSGLYLVLRQVEHWZHHQFRPSDQLHVDQGVHFWRUVWKDWZHUH
Pempel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ÁRXULVKHGLWVYHU\VXFFHVVFUHDWHGUHJLRQZLGHFRQGLWLRQV WKDW PDGH LW HYHU PRUH GLIÀFXOW WR VXVWDLQ RQ D SHUPDQHQW EDVLV 7KLV EHFDPH SDUWLFXODUO\FOHDULQWKH²FXUUHQF\FULVHVZKHQPDQ\$VLDQHFRQRPLHV IRXQGWKHPVHOYHVLQDFRPSHWLWLYHUDFHZLWKRQHDQRWKHUWRH[SDQGWKHLUVKDUHRI ZRUOGPDUNHWVWKURXJKSURGXFWLRQEDVHGRQFKHDSODERU&RPSHWLWLRQZLWKHDFK RWKHUZDVLQKHUHQWO\SUREOHPDWLFRQFHWKH35&ZLWKLWVYLUWXDOO\LQÀ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on averageVKRXOGKDYHEHHQTXLWHFRPIRUWDEOH6LPLODUO\WKH PRGHOVRI-DSDQHVHGHYHORSPHQWWRRHDVLO\REVFXUHGWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKRYHUDOOJURZWKDQGVXFFHVVLQWKDWFRXQWU\ZDVWKHSURGXFWRIKLJKO\GLVSDUDWHDQG XQHYHQSHUIRUPDQFHVLQGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVRIWKHHFRQRP\%\WKHHDUO\VLQ -DSDQDQGWKHODWHVLQ6RXWK.RUHDDQG7DLZDQ LWKDGEHFRPHFOHDUWKDW QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFVXFFHVVKDGORQJPDVNHGUHODWLYHO\ODUJHVZDWKVRIXQDGDSWLYH DQGVFOHURWLFSULYDWHVHFWRUÀUPV7KHFXPXODWLYHGUDJRIVRPDQ\LQZDUGORRNLQJ VHFWRUV DQG ÀUPV EHFDPH DQ LQFUHDVLQJO\ LPSRUWDQW SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO QDWLRQDOHFRQRPLHVSDUWLFXODUO\LQ-DSDQEXWODWHULQ6RXWK.RUHDDVZHOO 7KLVOHDGVXVWRWKHVHFRQGPDMRUÁ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´FDWFKXSµIDFHPDQ\GLIÀFXOWLHVEXWWKH\GRKDYHWKHDGYDQWDJH RI HDUOLHU H[DPSOHV RI GHYHORSPHQW WKDW OHDYH WKHP ZLWK FOHDU VLJQSRVWV DV WR
Revisiting the Japanese economic model WKHWHFKQRORJLHVDQGLQGXVWULHVWKH\VKRXOGEHWDUJHWLQJ2QFHWKH\KDYHFDXJKW XSKRZHYHUWKHSDWKDKHDGEHFRPHVPXFKPXUNLHU'XULQJFDWFKXSLQGXVWULDO GHYHORSPHQWFDQHIIHFWLYHO\SURFHHGE\UHO\LQJRQWHFKQLTXHVVXFKDVFRS\LQJ UHYHUVHHQJLQHHULQJDQGSURGXFWUHÀ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ÀOHV RI DOO WKUHH FRXQWULHV LQ ² ZHUH VXEVWDQWLDOO\ GLIIHUHQW WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH HDUO\ SRVWZDU \HDUV ,PSURYHGKHDOWKFDUHDQGELUWKFRQWUROOHGWRVPDOOHUIDPLOLHVDQGORQJHUOLYHV$OO WKUHHFRXQWULHVKDGEHQHÀ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À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²DIDFWRUWKDWZDVDQGLVFULWLFDOWRGHEDWHV RYHU OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ 7KLV SUREOHP EHFDPH SDUWLFXODUO\ DFXWH LQ -DSDQ ZLWK WKH /'3LQFUHDVLQJO\FRQFHQWUDWLQJLWVSROLF\HIIRUWVRQLWVOHDVWLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\FRPSHWLWLYHORQJVWDQGLQJFRQVWLWXHQWVQRWDEO\FRQVWUXFWLRQDJULFXOWXUHGLVWULEXWLRQ DQGVXEVHTXHQWO\EDQNLQJDQGÀQDQFLDOVHUYLFHV7KHUHVXOWVZHUHGHYDVWDWLQJWR WKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\ ,URQLFDOO\SROLWLFDOGHPRFUDWL]DWLRQDQGFKDQJHVLQWKHUXOHUVLQERWK7DLZDQ DQG 6RXWK .RUHD EURNH VRPH ORQJH[LVWLQJ KDPPHUORFNV RQ SRZHU LQ WKH ODWH VLQZD\VWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHV\VWHPDYRLGHG6WLOOIDLOXUHWRUHIRUP.RUHD·V chaebolVWUXFWXUHVFRQWULEXWHGJUHDWO\WRWKHOLTXLGLW\SUREOHPVRI².07 RZQHUVKLSRIPDQ\RI7DLZDQ·VODUJHVWROLJRSROLHVFUHDWHGVLPLODUULJLGLWLHVWKHUH
Pempel ,QDGGLWLRQWKHORQJVWDQGLQJFRPPLWPHQWVWRDQWLFRPPXQLVPLQERWKFRXQWULHV KDYHPDGHLWSROLWLFDOO\GLIÀFXOWIRUWKHPWRZRUNWRZDUGPRUHQRUPDOL]HGDQG SUHVXPDEO\ SRWHQWLDOO\ KLJKO\ SURÀWDEOH HFRQRPLF UHODWLRQV ZLWK 1RUWK .RUHD DQGWKH35& 7KHH[DPSOHVFRXOGEHPXOWLSOLHGEXWWKHPDMRUSRLQWVKRXOGEHFOHDU0RVW PRGHOV RI -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQW IDLOHG WR DFFRXQW DGHTXDWHO\ IRU WKH LQKHUHQW ZD\VLQZKLFKLQVWUXPHQWVDQGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVFULWLFDOWRVXFFHVVDWRQHSRLQWLQ WLPH PLJKW WKHPVHOYHV EHFRPH LPSHGLPHQWV WR FRQWLQXHG JURZWK RQFH LQLWLDO GHYHORSPHQWDO JRDOV KDG EHHQ DFKLHYHG ,W LV WKLV GLIÀ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
Conclusion 7KHDERYHDQDO\VLVKDVPDGHFOHDUWKDWLQOLJKWRIUHFHQWGRZQWXUQVDFURVV$VLD WKHUHLVIDUPRUHPHULWWRUHH[DPLQLQJWKH-DSDQHVHGHYHORSPHQWDOPRGHOWKDQ LQGLVFDUGLQJLWDVDVLPSOHE\SURGXFWRIDQHDUOLHUDQGPRUHRSWLPLVWLFHUD6XFK D UHH[DPLQDWLRQ ZLWK DQ H\H WR ERWK VXFFHVVHV DQG VWXPEOHV DOORZV D EHWWHU DSSUHFLDWLRQRIERWKWKHFRQWULEXWLRQVDQGWKHÁ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
Revisiting the Japanese economic model JURZWK FRXOG EH VXFFHVVIXOO\ SXUVXHG DV D FDWFKXS VWUDWHJ\ (YHQ DIWHU WKH HFRQRPLFFULVLVRI²WKHFRPSDUDWLYHHFRQRPLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVRI-DSDQ 6RXWK .RUHD DQG 7DLZDQ DV ZHOO DV RI 0DOD\VLD 6LQJDSRUH 7KDLODQG +RQJ .RQJDQGHYHQ,QGRQHVLD ZHUHYDVWO\VXSHULRUWRWKRVHRIFRXQWULHVFRXQWHGDV WKHLUHTXDOVRQO\DGHFDGHRUWZRHDUOLHU6HFRQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWPRGHOVGHPRQVWUDWHGZLWKXQPLVWDNDEOHFODULW\WKDWHFRQRPLFJURZWKFRXOGDGYDQFHDORQJPRUH WKDQRQHSDWK²LQGHHGPRUHVSHFLÀ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´VWDWHµDQG´PDUNHWµ·ZHUHLQFRPSHWLWLRQHOVHZKHUHLQWKHZRUOGLQ-DSDQDQG PXFKRI1RUWKHDVW$VLDWKH\ZHUHIDUPRUHIUHTXHQWO\LQFROODERUDWLRQ $OO RI WKHVH IHDWXUHV GHVHUYH UHFRJQLWLRQ7KH -DSDQHVH GHYHORSPHQW PRGHO GLGDJUHDWGHDOWREULQJWKHPIURQWDQGFHQWHULQFRPSDUDWLYHDQDO\VLVDVZHOO DV LQ WKH WKLQNLQJ RI SROLF\PDNHUV FKDUJHG ZLWK DGYDQFLQJ QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW$WWKHVDPHWLPHWKHFXUUHQWHFRQRPLFSUREOHPVLQ-DSDQWUDFHGDV WKH\KDYHEHHQWRVKLIWVLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLWLFDOSRZHUEDODQFHVDQGSDUWLFXODUO\ WRDUHFRQÀJXUDWLRQRILQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFHPDNHLWFOHDUWKDWHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHVFDQQRORQJHUEHQXUWXUHGLQQDWLRQDOO\LQVXODWHGYDFXXPV7KH SUHYDLOLQJRUWKRGR[\RIHFRQRPLFVKDVEHFRPHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGQDWLRQDOOHDGHUV DQ[LRXV WR DFKLHYH VXFFHVV WRGD\ PXVW EH ZDU\ RI DVVXPLQJ WKDW WKH\ FDQ HPXODWHWKHH[SHULHQFHVRI$VLD·VVXFFHVVVWRULHVWRRGLUHFWO\7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVLV VXUHO\IDUOHVVOLNHO\WRWROHUDWHOHWDORQHHPEUDFHPHUFDQWLOLVWDSSURDFKHVWRGD\ WKDQLWZDVGXULQJWKHKHLJKWVRIWKH&ROG:DU6XFFHVVPD\ZHOOGHSHQGWRRRQ FRPSDWLEOHDQGVXSSRUWLYHHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVWKURXJKRXWLWVUHJLRQDOQHLJKERUKRRG$QGQHZFRQGLWLRQVRIJOREDOFDSLWDOZLOOPDNHSXUHO\GRPHVWLFFRQWURORI FDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWVKLJKO\SUREOHPDWLF ,QDGGLWLRQGHYHORSPHQWDOLVWVVKRXOGOHDUQIURP-DSDQDQG1RUWKHDVW$VLDWKH YDOXHRIÁH[LELOLW\DQGWKHGDQJHUVRIHQWUHQFKHGSRZHUWZLQHOHPHQWVRIDGGHG LPSRUWDQFHLQWKHFRQWHPSRUDU\SUROLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQWH[W8QVKDNDEOHFRPPLWPHQWVDQGFRPSHQVDWLRQVWRFRQVWLWXHQWVXQDEOHWRFRQWULEXWHWRHFRQRPLFJURZWK ZKLOHSHUKDSVVRFLDOO\VWDELOL]LQJFDQEHFRPHLPSHGLPHQWVWRUDSLGDGMXVWPHQW WRFKDQJLQJHFRQRPLFQHHGV'HYHORSPHQWDV-RVHSK6FKXPSHWHU PDGH FOHDUGHFDGHVDJRLQYROYHVQRWRQO\WKHDELOLW\WRJHQHUDWHWKHQHZEXWDOVRWKH DELOLW\ WR GHVWUR\ WKH ROG ´&UHDWLYH GHVWUXFWLRQµ LV DV FULWLFDO DQ LQJUHGLHQW RI JURZWKLQWKHFXUUHQWFHQWXU\IDYRULQJOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDVLWZDVLQWKHODVWIDYRULQJ GHYHORSPHQW
Pempel
Notes &ODVVLFH[DPSOHVRIVXFKDQDSSURDFKDUH3\H DQG7DL 7KLVSRLQWLVH[SORUHGDWOHQJWKLQ3HPSHOO 6HHDOVR6DZ\HUO DQG9HUEDet al O $XVHIXOFRPSDUDWLYHWDEOHVXPPDUL]LQJÀQGLQJRQ*LQL,QGH[HVIRUVHYHUDOPDMRU1,&V LVSUHVHQWHGLQ+DJJDUG 6HHDOVR.RR (YDQV DQG6FKZDUW] $PRQJWKHRWKHUUHOHYDQWVWXGLHVVHH3HPSHOE $PVGHQ :DGH DQG3HNNDQHQ $SDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWH[FHSWLRQLQWKHFDVHRI6RXWK.RUHDLV:RR $PRQJWKHPRUHSURPLQHQWZRUNVLQWKLVÀHOGVHH$OEHUW +ROOLQJVZRUWKet al 3HPSHO DQG3$+DOODQG6RVNLFH
Developmental dilemmas in China 6RFLDOLVWWUDQVLWLRQDQGODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ Kellee S. Tsai and Sarah Cook
&KLQD·V VWXQQLQJ HFRQRPLF JURZWK VLQFH WKH ODWH V KDV OHG VRPH VFKRODUV WRSURSRVHWKDWWKHSRVW0DRUHJLPHKDVHYROYHGLQWRD´GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµ PLUURULQJWKHSRVWZDUSDWKRILWV(DVW$VLDQQHLJKERUV2QWKHVXUIDFHWKHSDUW\ VWDWH KDV LQGHHG GHPRQVWUDWHG NH\ GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH TXDOLWLHV WKHVH LQFOXGH WKHDUWLFXODWLRQRIQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFSULRULWLHVWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIVSHFLDOL]HG EXUHDXFUDFLHV WKH WDUJHWHG FUHDWLRQ RI LQGXVWULDO VHFWRUV DQG H[SRUWSURFHVVLQJ ]RQHVDQGWKHDELOLW\WRWKZDUWSRSXODUSROLWLFDOUHVLVWDQFH7KLVFKDSWHUFRQWHQGV KRZHYHUWKDW&KLQD·VGHYHORSPHQWDOSURFHVVKDVGHYLDWHGIURPFRUHFRPSRQHQWV RIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHOLQIRXULPSRUWDQWUHVSHFWV )LUVW XQOLNH WKH (DVW$VLDQ QHZO\ LQGXVWULDOL]HG FRXQWULHV 1,&V &KLQD LV D WUDQVLWLRQDO HFRQRP\ WKDW IDFHV WKH GXDO WDVN RI GLVPDQWOLQJ VRFLDOLVW LQVWLWXWLRQVZKLOHFRQVWUXFWLQJRQHVWKDWSURPRWHDPDUNHWRULHQWHGDSSURDFKWRJURZWK 6HFRQGDQGUHODWHGO\&KLQDPD\DOVREHFRQVLGHUHGDODWHOLEHUDOL]HU$VSRLQWHG RXWLQWKHÀUVWFKDSWHURIWKLVYROXPHDQGLQ7-3HPSHO·VFKDSWHUGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHVOLNH&KLQDQRZIDFHGLIIHUHQWJOREDOHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVIURPSUHFHGLQJJHQHUDWLRQVRIODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUVWRGD\·VGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVDUHDGYLVHG WRSXUVXHPRUHOLEHUDOUDWKHUWKDQVWDWLVWGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHV7KLUG&KLQD·V UHIRUPHUDSROLFLHVGLIIHULQVXEVWDQFHIURPWKRVHGHHPHGWREHFRUHSROLFLHVRI WKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH)RXUWKVXEQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWVKDYHSOD\HGDNH\UROH LQGHÀQLQJWKHWHUPVIRUORFDOGHYHORSPHQW,QSROLWLFDOUHDOLW\WKH35&VWDWHGRHV QRWRSHUDWHDVFRKHUHQWO\RUHIIHFWLYHO\DVZRXOGEHH[SHFWHGLQDW\SLFDOGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH:KLOHDPDMRUWDVNRISRVW0DRUHIRUPHUVKDVEHHQWRVWUHQJWKHQWKH VWDWH·VLQVWLWXWLRQDOFDSDFLW\IRUWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVLQWKH LQWHULP&KLQD·VUHIRUPHUDJURZWKKDVJLYHQULVHWRDKRVWRIVHULRXVSROLWLFDODQG VRFLDOFKDOOHQJHVZKLFKUHTXLUHRQJRLQJFRPSURPLVHVLQSROLF\GLUHFWLRQUDWKHU WKDQOLQHDUSURJUHVVLRQWRZDUGJUHDWHUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ$QDO\WLFDOO\WKLVSRLQWVWR WKHQHHGIRUDEURDGHUQRWLRQRIGHYHORSPHQWWKDQWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOHFRQRPLF FHQWULFRQHWKDWFKDUDFWHUL]HVPXFKRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHOLWHUDWXUH 7KHUHLVVLJQLÀFDQWYDULDWLRQZLWKLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH '6 :KHWKHURUQRW&KLQDLVFRQVLGHUHGDVUHSUHVHQWLQJDVLPLODUPRGHOGHSHQGV LQSDUWRQWKHFRUHHOHPHQWVDWWULEXWHGWRVXFKVWDWHV)RUFODULW\ZHGLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ WKH ´LGHRORJLFDOµ DQG ´LQVWLWXWLRQDOµ EUDQFKHV RI GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH WKHRULHV7KH HDUOLHVW OLWHUDWXUHRQ &KLQD DV D '6 IRFXVHG PRUH RQ WKH EURDGHU
Tsai and Cook ideological orientationRIWKHVWDWHWKDQRQWKHPHFKDQLFVRIGHYHORSPHQWSROLF\ LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ ,Q SDUWLFXODU *RUGRQ:KLWH GLIIHUHQWLDWHG EHWZHHQ WKH ´MaoistGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµZKLFKGLGQRWDFKLHYHLWVHFRQRPLFREMHFWLYHVDQG WKHSRVW0DR´capitalistGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµZKLFKKDV\LHOGHGIDVWHUJURZWK UDWHVE\DOORZLQJPDUNHWIRUFHVWRUHYLYHLQWKHHFRQRP\$FFRUGLQJWRWKLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQFKDQJHVLQWKHQDWXUHRIVWDWHLQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHHFRQRP\EHWZHHQWKH 0DRDQGSRVW0DRHUDVUHÁHFWIXQGDPHQWDOVKLIWVLQVWDWHLGHRORJ\²LQFOXGLQJWKH GHHPSKDVLVRILGHRORJLFDOFULWHULDIRUHYDOXDWLQJHFRQRPLFSROLFLHV&RQFXUUHQWO\ VFKRODUVKDYHEXLOWXSRQWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOFRQFHSWRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHIURP &KDOPHUV-RKQVRQ·VMITI and the Japanese Miracle WRH[SODLQWKH(DVW $VLDQ1,&V·UDSLGSRVWZDUJURZWK7KHVHVWXGLHVIRFXVRQWKHFRQÀJXUDWLRQRI VWDWHLQVWLWXWLRQVVXFKDVWKHQDWXUHRIWKHEXUHDXFUDF\DQGRWKHULQVWLWXWLRQVWKDW PHGLDWHVWDWH²VRFLHW\UHODWLRQVDVZHOODVWKHQDWXUHRIVSHFLÀFSROLF\LQWHUYHQWLRQVLQWKHHFRQRP\*LYHQWKHUHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHFRUHIHDWXUHVRIWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOPRGHOLQWKHOLJKWRIWKH(DVW$VLDQFULVLVDQGHFRQRPLFGHFOLQHDPRQJWKH 1,&VVHH3HPSHO WKLVFKDSWHUVHHNVWRH[SOLFDWHWKHSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\RIUHIRUP LQ&KLQD·VGHYHORSPHQWDOSURFHVVUDWKHUWKDQWRFRQWHVWWKHDQDO\WLFDOXWLOLW\RI WKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHOLQJHQHUDO/LNHZLVHZHGRQRWDWWHPSWWRH[SODLQ &KLQD·VUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWKRYHUWKHSDVWWZRGHFDGHV,QVWHDGWKLVFKDSWHU KDVWKUHHREMHFWLYHV)LUVWZHVHHNWRLOOXPLQDWHVRPHRIWKHNH\GHYHORSPHQW DVSLUDWLRQVDQGSROLF\LQWHUYHQWLRQVRIWKH&KLQHVHVWDWHZKLFKKDYHFRQWULEXWHG WRWKHDFKLHYHPHQWRIUHPDUNDEOHJURZWKUDWHV²QRWRQO\VLQFHEXWDOVR VLQFHWKH35&·VIRXQGLQJLQ,QRUGHUWRXQGHUVWDQG&KLQD·VGHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJ\DVDFRPELQDWLRQRIVRFLDOLVWWUDQVLWLRQand ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZHFRQWHQG WKDWLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRH[DPLQHWKHSROLFLHVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOOHJDFLHVRIWKH0DRLVW HUD6HFRQGWKHFKDSWHUDVVHVVHVWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHVHDVSLUDWLRQVDQGSROLFLHV DUHVLPLODUWRRUGHYLDWHIURPWKRVHSXUVXHGE\-DSDQDQGWKH1,&V$QGWKLUG ZHVHHNWRGHPRQVWUDWHWKHYDOXHERWKHPSLULFDOO\DQGWKHRUHWLFDOO\RIGHÀQLQJ GHYHORSPHQWLQPRUHKROLVWLFDQGUHODWLRQDOWHUPV,QVRGRLQJWKLVFKDSWHUGHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWWKHH[SHULHQFHRIUHIRUPHUD&KLQDUHSUHVHQWVDQDOWHUQDWLYHWUDMHFWRU\RIGHYHORSPHQW²RQHWKDWKDVDWWHPSWHGWRHPXODWHDKLVWRULFDOO\FRQWLQJHQW PRGHO XQGHU IXQGDPHQWDOO\ GLIIHUHQW GRPHVWLF DQG JOREDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV$V D UHVXOWZHVKRXOGQRWEHVXUSULVHGWRÀQGWKDW&KLQD·VHFRQRPLFULVHDQGHQVXLQJ GLOHPPDVLQWXUQDIIHFWWKHFRQGLWLRQVXQGHUZKLFKRWKHUHFRQRPLHVLQWKHUHJLRQ DQGEH\RQG DUHRSHUDWLQJ
China’s developmental performance in comparative perspective %HIRUHDQDO\]LQJWKHIRXUGLPHQVLRQVLQZKLFKZHVXJJHVW&KLQDGHYLDWHVIURP WKH '6 PRGHO WKLV VHFWLRQ H[DPLQHV WKH HYLGHQFH IRU UHJDUGLQJ UHIRUPHUD &KLQD DV D GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH 7KH IROORZLQJ WDEOHV RXWOLQH NH\ HOHPHQWV RI &KLQD·VGHYHORSPHQWDOH[SHULHQFHLQFRPSDUDWLYHFRQWH[W7DEOHVXPPDUL]HV H[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVDWWKHVWDWHOHYHOZKLOH7DEOHSUHVHQWVGHYHORSPHQWDO RXWFRPHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH'6
6RXWK.RUHD
Taiwan
6LQJDSRUH
+RQJ.RQJ &KLQD
Country -DSDQ
State commitment to a catch-up strategy of rapid market-oriented growth
Table 3.1 .H\SROLWLFDOHOHPHQWVRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH
Directed credit to strategic sectors
Political capacity to resist popular pressure
High ratio of trade/GDP (peak year)b
International competitiveness in particular sectors during high-growth period $XWRVHOHFWURQLFV 6KLSEXLOGLQJHOHFWURQLFVPDFKLQHU\ /LJKWLQGXVWU\HOHFWURQLFV &RPPHUFHWUDGH 7UDGHÀQDQFH /LJKWODERULQWHQVLYHLQGXVWU\
Equitable distribution of inFRPH*LQLFRHIÀFLHQWV c ²² ²² ²WR ²² ²ZRUVHQLQJ ²
Notes D $OOFRXQWULHVH[FHSWIRU-DSDQ:RUOG%DQND%R[ IRU-DSDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQG E $OOFRXQWULHVH[FHSWIRU&KLQD:RUOG%DQN7DEOH IRU&KLQD1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV F $OOFRXQWULHVH[FHSWIRU-DSDQDQG&KLQD$KXMDet al7DEOH IRU-DSDQ7KH:RUOG%DQN:RUOG'HYHORSPHQW,QGLFDWRUVIRU&KLQD:RUOG%DQN E DQG5LVNLQ² DQGIRU&KLQDLQ;
-DSDQ 6RXWK.RUHD Taiwan 6LQJDSRUH +RQJ.RQJ &KLQD
Rapid average annual GDP growtha ² ² ² ² ² ²
Table 3.2 2XWFRPHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH
Developmental dilemmas in China *LYHQ WKDW DPSOH OLWHUDWXUH H[LVWV RQ WKH QRQ&KLQD FDVHV ZH IRFXV KHUH RQ KRZ &KLQD FRPSDUHV WR LWV (DVW$VLDQ QHLJKERUV GXULQJ WKHLU KLJKJURZWK SHULRGV)LUVWDVLQGLFDWHGLQ7DEOHUHIRUPHUD&KLQDLQGHHGH[KLELWVPDQ\ RIWKHNH\HOHPHQWVRIWKH'66LQFHWKHODWHVWKHUHKDVEHHQDJURZLQJ FRPPLWPHQW WR PDUNHWRULHQWHG UHIRUP DPRQJ SROLWLFDO HOLWHV ,Q UKHWRULF WKH )RXU0RGHUQL]DWLRQV²PRGHUQL]DWLRQRILQGXVWU\DJULFXOWXUHVFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\ DQG WKH PLOLWDU\ ² DQG 'HQJLVW VORJDQV HPSKDVL]LQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI SUDFWLFDOUHVXOWVUHSUHVHQWDGHSDUWXUHIURPWKH0DRLVWEUDQGRIVRFLDOLVWLGHRORJ\,QVWLWXWLRQDOO\WKHFRPPLWPHQWWRPRGHUQL]DWLRQKDVEHHQHYLGHQFHGE\WKH VWUHQJWKHQLQJ DQG HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI PLQLVWHULDO DJHQFLHV VXFK DV 02)7(& WKH 0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ7UDGHDQG(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQ²&KLQD WKH,QGXVWULDODQG &RPPHUFLDO0DQDJHPHQW%XUHDXWKH&RPPLWWHHIRU5HIRUPRIWKH(FRQRPLF 6\VWHPDQGRWKHUEXUHDXFUDWLFRUJDQL]DWLRQVGHGLFDWHGWRVHUYLQJDVWKH´EUDLQ WUXVWµ IRU UHIRUPLQJ VSHFLÀF VHFWRUV 7KH UHFUXLWPHQW RI FLYLO VHUYDQWV WR VWDII WKHVHRUJDQL]DWLRQVKDVEHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\PHULWRFUDWLFZKLFKPD\VXJJHVWWKH HPHUJHQFHRIDWHFKQRFUDWLFSROLWLFDOHOLWH)XUWKHUPRUHWKHUHJLPHKDVVKRZQD SUDJPDWLFZLOOLQJQHVVWRH[WHQGH[SHULPHQWDOUHIRUPVHJWKHVSHFLDOHFRQRPLF ]RQHVZKHQWKH\DUHGHHPHGWREHHFRQRPLFDOO\YLDEOH$QGWKXVIDUWKHVWDWHKDV GHPRQVWUDWHGWKHFDSDFLW\WRVXSSUHVVVHULRXVSROLWLFDOFKDOOHQJHVWRLWVUXOH(DFK RIWKHVHHOHPHQWVPLUURUVWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOTXDOLWLHVRIGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHV 7DEOHVKRZVWKDW&KLQD·VHFRQRPLFSHUIRUPDQFHKDVEHHQHTXDOO\LPSUHVVLYHDVLIQRWPRUHLPSUHVVLYHWKDQWKDWRIRWKHUFRXQWULHVLQWKHUHJLRQ'HVSLWH LQFUHDVLQJLQFRPHLQHTXDOLWLHVRQDJJUHJDWH*'3DQGWUDGHLQGLFDWRUVDOOSRLQW WR D GUDPDWLF H[SDQVLRQ LQ &KLQD·V SURGXFWLYH FDSDFLWLHV 0DQ\ RWKHU TXDOLWLHV DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH(DVW$VLDQ1,&VPD\EHLGHQWLÀHGLQFOXGLQJDZHOOHGXFDWHG ZRUNIRUFHDQGKLJKVDYLQJVUDWHVEXWLWLVGHEDWDEOHZKHWKHUWKH\DUHFDXVHVRU HIIHFWVRIHQOLJKWHQHGVWDWHLQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHHFRQRP\)RUWKHSUHVHQWSXUSRVHV VXIÀFHLWWRVD\WKDW&KLQD·VRIÀ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´ORFDOVWDWHFRUSRUDWLVPµ 2XWVLGHRIWKH 6XQDQDUHDVFKRODUVZKRKDYHVWXGLHG:HQ]KRX²DORFDOLW\LQ=KHMLDQJNQRZQ IRU WKH GRPLQDQFH RI WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU ² KDYH KLJKOLJKWHG WKH ZD\V LQ ZKLFK ORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVWRRNWKHLQLWLDWLYHLQFUHDWLQJIDYRUDEOHFRQGLWLRQVIRUPDUNHW RULHQWHGJURZWKLQWKHLUORFDOLWLHVHJ1RODQDQG'RQJ3DUULV )RU H[DPSOH:HQ]KRX·VEXUHDXFUDWVQRWRQO\SHUPLWWHGVSRQWDQHRXVGHFROOHFWLYL]DWLRQRIDJULFXOWXUHLQWKHPLGVEXWDOVRH[WHQGHG´UHGKDWVµFROOHFWLYHGLVJXLVHV WRSULYDWHHQWUHSUHQHXUVDQGLPSOLFLWO\DOORZHGWKHSUROLIHUDWLRQRISULYDWH LQIRUPDOÀQDQFLDODFWLYLWLHVWRIXHOWKHORFDOHFRQRP\6WXGLHVRIRWKHUORFDOLWLHV KDYH LGHQWLÀHG VLPLODU W\SHV RI LQQRYDWLYH LQWHUYHQWLRQ E\ ORFDO JRYHUQPHQWV
Tsai and Cook LQ WKH HFRQRP\ 7DNHQ WRJHWKHU VXFK DQDO\VHV VXJJHVW WKDW &KLQD·V HFRQRPLF JURZWKKDVDFWXDOO\EHHQVWHHUHGE\KXQGUHGVRI´ORFDOGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVµ$V WKHQH[WVHFWLRQVKRZVKRZHYHULWPD\EHPLVOHDGLQJWRFRQFHSWXDOL]H&KLQDDV D'6²RUDVKDYLQJORFDO'6V²GXHWRVWUXFWXUDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQERWKWKHGRPHVWLF DQGH[WHUQDOFRQGLWLRQVXQGHUZKLFKLWVUDSLGJURZWKKDVRFFXUUHG
China’s deviations from the developmental state $OWKRXJK&KLQDKDVPDQ\'6TXDOLWLHVLWVUHIRUPSURFHVVGLIIHUVIURPWKDWRIWKH (DVW$VLDQ1,&VLQIRXUIXQGDPHQWDOZD\V &KLQDLVDWUDQVLWLRQDOHFRQRP\ WKDWIDFHVQRWRQO\WKHFKDOOHQJHRIFDWFKLQJXSWKURXJKUDSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQEXW DOVRWKDWRIUHIRUPLQJSUHH[LVWLQJVRFLDOLVWLQVWLWXWLRQV RSHUDWLQJLQWKHSRVW &ROG :DU JOREDO SROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ SUHVHQWV GLIIHUHQW RSWLRQV WKDQ WKRVH IDFHG E\(DVW$VLDQ1,&VGXULQJWKHLPPHGLDWHSRVW:RUOG:DU,,GHFDGHV RZLQJ LQSDUWWRWKHÀUVWWZRGLIIHUHQFHVWKHDFWXDOHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVRIWKHSRVW0DR UHJLPHGHSDUWLQLPSRUWDQWZD\VIURPWKRVHRIWKH1,&VDQG &KLQD·VSROLWLFDO V\VWHPDQGVKHHUVL]HFRPSOLFDWHWKHHIIHFWLYHDQGFRQVLVWHQWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI SROLFLHVVHWIRUWKE\WKHFHQWHU Socialist transition ,QPDQ\ZD\VWKHÀUVWWZRGHFDGHVRIUHIRUPLQ&KLQDUHVRQDWHPRUHZLWKWKH HDUOLHU SUH UHIRUP H[SHULHQFHV RI WKH IRUPHU 6RYLHW 8QLRQ DQG (DVW (XURSHDQ )68(( FRXQWULHV WKDQ ZLWK WKH ODWH GHYHORSLQJ FDWFKXS SKDVH RI (DVW $VLDQ 1,&V 7KH SUHH[LVWLQJ FRPELQDWLRQ RI VRFLDOLVW LGHRORJ\ DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV SUHVHQWV HQWUHQFKHG YDOXHV DQG LQWHUHVWV WKDW FRPSOLFDWH VWDWHOHG HIIRUWVDWHQKDQFLQJJURZWKWKURXJKOLEHUDOL]LQJPHDVXUHV)XQGDPHQWDOWHQVLRQV H[LVWLQVLWXDWLRQVZKHUHDSDUW\VWDWHLVDWWHPSWLQJWRVFDOHEDFNLWVGRPLQDQFHRI WKHHFRQRP\,GHRORJLFDOO\WKHUHIRUPRULHQWHGVRFLDOLVWUHJLPHQHHGVWRMXVWLI\ PDMRUSROLF\VKLIWVLQSXEOLFUKHWRULF+RZFDQWKHH[LVWLQJPRGHRIHFRQRPLF RUJDQL]DWLRQ VWURQJO\ GHÀQHG DV EHLQJ ´VRFLDOLVWµ OHJLWLPDWHO\ DFFRPPRGDWH UHIRUPVWKDWFRXOGEHSHUFHLYHGDVEHLQJ´FDSLWDOLVWµ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·V GUDPDWLF XQH[SHFWHGO\ UHJLPHWUDQVIRUPLQJ UHIRUPVZKLFKIDFLOLWDWHGWKHFROODSVHRIFRPPXQLVWUXOHLQWKHUHJLRQ :KHQ 'HQJ ;LDRSLQJ·V FRDOLWLRQ FRQVROLGDWHG SRZHU DIWHU 0DR·V GHDWK WKH
Developmental dilemmas in China SRWHQWLDOO\ H[WUHPH FRQVHTXHQFHV ZHUH QRW \HW DSSDUHQW EXW WKH LGHRORJLFDO SROLWLFDODQGRSHUDWLRQDOFKDOOHQJHVRIUHIRUPZHUH'HQJUHDFKHGEDFNWRUHYROXWLRQDU\HUD0DR=HGRQJWKRXJKWWRIUDPHKLVSURSRVHGUHIRUPVLQDFRJQLWLYHO\ DFFHSWDEOHPDQQHU´3UDFWLFHLVWKHVROHFULWHULRQRIWUXWKµ3UDJPDWLVPLQHYDOXDWLQJSROLFLHVZRXOGWUXPSLGHRORJLFDOLVVXHV7KLVGLVFXUVLYHSXEOLFIUDPLQJGLG QRWWKZDUWSROLWLFDOFRQÁLFWVRYHUWKHFRQWHQWRIUHIRUPKRZHYHU 'XULQJWKHVWKHSROLWLFDOHOLWHZDVURXJKO\GLYLGHGLQWRWZRPDLQIDFWLRQVUHIRUPHUVYHUVXVFRQVHUYDWLYHV7KHODWWHUZDVUHSUHVHQWHGE\&KHQ<XQ·V KHDY\LQGXVWU\FRDOLWLRQLQFOXGLQJWKHQ0LQLVWHURI(OHFWULF3RZHU/L3HQJDQG &KLQHVH&RPPXQLVW3DUW\&&3 3URSDJDQGD&KLHI'HQJ/LTXQDQGWKH\DGYRFDWHGDJUDGXDOPLQLPDOLVWDSSURDFKWRUHIRUP$VRQHRIWKHRULJLQDOGHVLJQHUV RI WKH 6RYLHWVW\OH )LUVW )LYH
Tsai and Cook VHFWRUVZRXOGEHSUHVHUYHGZKLOHDSSUR[LPDWHO\VPDOOHU62(VZRXOGEH VROGRIIPHUJHGRUFORVHG 8OWLPDWHO\ UHIRUPLQJ D VRFLDOLVW HFRQRP\ PD\ XQGHUPLQH LQVWLWXWLRQV WKDW ZHUHRQFHFHQWUDOWRWKHVWDWHGRPLQDWHGPRGHRIVRFLDOLVWSURGXFWLRQ$WWKHVDPH WLPH WKH YLDELOLW\ RI UHIRUP PD\ UHTXLUH WKH FUHDWLRQ RI QHZ LQVWLWXWLRQV VXFK DVDV\VWHPRISULYDWHSURSHUW\ULJKWVWD[UHJXODWLRQVDQGFKDQQHOVIRUGLVSXWH UHVROXWLRQ
Developmental dilemmas in China GHFLVLRQZDVUHODWHGWRWKHVHULHVRIELODWHUDODJUHHPHQWVWKDW&KLQDQHJRWLDWHG SULRUWRLWVDFFHVVLRQWRWKH:72LQODWH7KHQH[WVHFWLRQHODERUDWHVXSRQ WKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWH[WGXULQJ&KLQD·VUHIRUPHUDJURZWK Late development in the age of globalization 7KH LQWHUQDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQW WKDW &KLQD IDFHV LV DOVR FRQVLGHUDEO\ GLIIHUHQW LQJHRVWUDWHJLFSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFWHUPVIURPWKDWIDFHGE\-DSDQDQGWKH (DVW$VLDQ1,&V)LUVWWKHODWWHUFRXQWULHV·SRVLWLRQLQWKH&ROG:DULQWHUQDWLRQDO VWUXFWXUH ZDV JHRVWUDWHJLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7KH ´:KR ORVW &KLQD"µ GHEDWHV DQG WKH ULVH RI 0F&DUWK\LVP VWUHQJWKHQHG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV· FRPPLWPHQWWRSURYLGHSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFVXSSRUWIRUWKHSRVWZDUUHJLPHV LQ-DSDQ7DLZDQDQG6RXWK.RUHD7KHLQLWLDWLRQRIHFRQRPLFUHIRUPLQ&KLQD FRLQFLGHGLQWLPLQJZLWKWKHQRUPDOL]DWLRQRI6LQR86GLSORPDWLFUHODWLRQVDWWKH HQGRIZKLOH6LQR6RYLHWUHODWLRQVGLGQRWUHVXPHIRUPDOO\XQWLODGHFDGH ODWHUUHFDOO*RUEDFKHY·VDZNZDUGO\WLPHGYLVLWWR%HLMLQJLQ0D\ :LWKWKH HQGRIWKH&ROG:DUKRZHYHUWKHUHODWLYHSROLWLFDODGYDQWDJHVRIEHLQJLQJRRG IDYRUZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDYHGLPLQLVKHG'XULQJWKHV6LQR86UHODWLRQV H[SHULHQFHG WHQVLRQV RYHU 7DLZDQ GLVDJUHHPHQWV RYHU KXPDQ ULJKWV LVVXHV LQÁDPPDWRU\H[SUHVVLRQVRIPXWXDOVXVSLFLRQE\QDWLRQDOLVWVLQERWKFRXQWULHV DQGXQWLOWKH:72DJUHHPHQWVZHUHFRPSOHWHGDQQXDO86FRQJUHVVLRQDOGHEDWHV RYHUWKHJUDQWLQJRIPRVWIDYRUHGQDWLRQ0)1 QRUPDOWUDGLQJUHODWLRQV175 3175VWDWXVWR&KLQD/DPSWRQ
Tsai and Cook Table 3.3 86ELODWHUDOWUDGHZLWKVHOHFWHG(DVW$VLDQFRXQWULHV Trade balance Country US$bn &KLQD -DSDQ Taiwan 6RXWK.RUHD 6LQJDSRUH +RQJ.RQJ
Rank a a
Exports US$bn
Rank a
Imports US$bn
Rank a
Note D 5DQNDVRI
A different developmental path *LYHQWKHIDFWWKDW&KLQDHPEDUNHGRQDWUDMHFWRU\RIPDUNHWRULHQWHGGHYHORSPHQW IURP YDVWO\ GLIIHUHQW GRPHVWLF DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDUWLQJ SRLQWV WKDQ LWV (DVW $VLDQ QHLJKERUV RXU REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW WKH VXEVWDQFH RI LWV SROLFLHV GHYLDWHV LQ NH\UHVSHFWVIURPWKHRULJLQDO'6PRGHOVKRXOGQRWEHFRQWURYHUVLDO'HVSLWHWKH HPSLULFDOUHVRQDQFHLQGHYHORSPHQWDORXWFRPHV²KLJKJURZWKUDWHVDQGYROXPH RIH[SRUWV²EHWZHHQ&KLQDDQGRWKHU'6VWKHUROHRIWKH35&VWDWHLQWKLVSURFHVV LQFHUWDLQUHVSHFWVH[KLELWV´QRQGHYHORSPHQWDOµDQGHYHQ´DQWLGHYHORSPHQWDOµ TXDOLWLHV$VVKRZQLQ7DEOHZKLFKFRPSDUHVWKH'6·VNH\SROLWLFDOHOHPHQWV LQGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVWKHSULPDU\FKDUDFWHULVWLFGLVWLQJXLVKLQJ&KLQDIURP'6V LQ(DVW$VLDLVWKHDEVHQFHRIGLUHFWHGVWDWHFUHGLWWRVWUDWHJLFSURGXFWLYHVHFWRUV RIWKHHFRQRP\.DMD6HKUW·VFKDSWHUHODERUDWHVXSRQWKLVNH\SRLQW ,QWHUPVRI RXWFRPHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH'67DEOHVKRZVWKDWLQFRQWUDVWWRWKHRWKHU(DVW $VLDQ'6V&KLQD·VUDSLGJURZWKKDVEHHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVLJQLÀFDQWLQFUHDVHV LQLQFRPHLQHTXDOLW\7KHVHWZRGHYLDWLRQVIURPWKHLQSXWDQGRXWSXWHQGVRIWKH '6PRGHOXOWLPDWHO\UHYHDOWKHFRPSHWLQJLIQRWFRQWUDGLFWRU\SROLWLFDOSUHVVXUHV WKDWKDYHLQIRUPHG&KLQD·VGHYHORSPHQWVLQFHWKH&&3·VFRQVROLGDWLRQRISRZHU RQWKHPDLQODQGLQ /LNH PRVW GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV LQ WKH SRVWZDU SHULRG WKH 35& SDUW\VWDWH SULRULWL]HGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFJURZWKIURPLWVLQFHSWLRQ%XW WKHUH KDV DOZD\V EHHQ VXEVWDQWLDO GLVDJUHHPHQW ZLWKLQ WKH WRS OHDGHUVKLS RYHU WKH EHVW PHDQV IRU DFKLHYLQJ WKLV IXQGDPHQWDO JRDO LQFOXGLQJ WKH DSSURSULDWH UROHRIWKHVWDWHLQWKHHFRQRP\7RDSSUHFLDWH&KLQD·VUHIRUPHUDGLOHPPDVLWLV QHFHVVDU\WRXQGHUVWDQGWKHPDMRUSROLF\VKLIWVWKDWKDYHRFFXUUHGVLQFH &KLQD·VGHYHORSPHQWDOSURFHVVPD\EHFODVVLÀHGLQWRIRXUPDMRUSKDVHVSRVWZDU UHFRYHU\DQGHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIWKHHFRQRPLFSODQQLQJDSSDUDWXV² FRPPXQL]DWLRQDQGK\SHULQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQGXULQJWKH*UHDW/HDS² UHFRYHU\ IURPWKH*UHDW/HDSDQG&XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ² DQGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQGXULQJ WKHUHIRUPHUD²SUHVHQW (DFKRIWKHIRXUSHULRGVPD\EHIXUWKHUVXEGLYLGHG IRUJUHDWHUFKURQRORJLFDODQGVXEVWDQWLYHVSHFLÀFLW\EXWRZLQJWRVSDFHOLPLWDWLRQVZHIRFXVKHUHRQWKHSROLF\JRDOVSROLFLHVSXUVXHGDQGWKHLUDFWXDOHIIHFWV ZLWKLQWKRVHEURDGO\GHÀQHGSKDVHV
Developmental dilemmas in China
China’s developmental process Post-war recovery and socialist construction (1949–57) :KHQ WKH 35& ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG RQ 2FWREHU WKH LQLWLDO GHYHORSPHQWDO VORJDQZDV´7KUHH\HDUVRIUHFRYHU\IROORZHGE\WHQ\HDUVRIGHYHORSPHQWµ$ PDMRUFRPSRQHQWRIWKHWKUHH\HDUVRIUHFRYHU\HQWDLOHGODQGUHIRUPZKHUHE\ ODQG ZDV UHGLVWULEXWHG IURP ODQGORUGV WR ODQGOHVV SHDVDQWV DQG RI SDUWLFXODU SROLWLFDO VLJQLÀFDQFH HYHU\ UXUDO KRXVHKROG ZDV FODVVLÀHG LQWR IRXU RIÀFLDO FDWHJRULHV²ULFKSHDVDQWVPLGGOHSHDVDQWVSRRUSHDVDQWVDQGODQGOHVVODERUHUV $SSUR[LPDWHO\RQHWRWZRPLOOLRQODQGORUGVZHUHNLOOHGLQWKHSURFHVV0HDQZKLOH ODUJH EXVLQHVVHV DQG EDQNV ZHUH FRQÀVFDWHG DQG QDWLRQDOL]HG LQ XUEDQ DUHDV WKRXJK ´LQGLYLGXDO HQWUHSUHQHXUVµ getihu ZHUH SHUPLWWHG WR UXQ VPDOO VKRSV DQGIDFWRULHV2YHUDOOWKHQHZO\HVWDEOLVKHGSDUW\VWDWHDFKLHYHGLWVVKRUWWHUP HFRQRPLF REMHFWLYHV GXULQJ LWV ÀUVW WKUHH \HDUV ODQGORUGV KDG HIIHFWLYHO\ EHHQ DEROLVKHGDVDFODVVWRWDODJULFXOWXUDORXWSXWLQFUHDVHGDQDYHUDJHRISHUFHQW DQQXDOO\EHWZHHQDQG0HLVQHU DQGPRVWXUEDQDUHDVKDG H[SHULHQFHGFRPPHUFLDOUHQHZDO :LWK 6RYLHW WHFKQLFDO DVVLVWDQFH WKH ))<3 ² DLPHG WR FROOHFWLYL]H DJULFXOWXUHLQUXUDODUHDVDQGEXLOGXSLQGXVWULDOFDSDFLW\WKURXJKVWDWHSODQQLQJ &ROOHFWLYL]DWLRQ HQWDLOHG D WLHUHG VWUXFWXUH VXFK WKDW WKUHH WR ÀYH KRXVHKROGV ZRXOGSRROWKHLUDQLPDOVWRROVDQGODERUWRIRUPPXWXDODLGWHDPVWKHQPXWXDO DLG WHDPV FRPSULVLQJ RQ DYHUDJH WHQ WR WZHQW\ KRXVHKROGV ZRXOG SRRO WKHLU ODQG WR IRUP ORZHU DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFHU FRRSHUDWLYHV DQG ÀQDOO\ ORZHU FRRSHUDWLYHV ZRXOG FRPELQH WR IRUP KLJKHU DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFHU FRRSHUDWLYHV RU ´FROOHFWLYHVµ FRQVLVWLQJ RI RYHU KRXVHKROGV7KH REMHFWLYHV RI DJULFXOWXUDO FROOHFWLYL]DWLRQZHUHWRHOLPLQDWHSULYDWHRZQHUVKLSRIODQGHQKDQFHDJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLRQ WKURXJK LQFUHDVLQJ HFRQRPLHV RI VFDOH DQG SURYLGH WKH VWDWH ZLWK QHZRUJDQL]DWLRQDOFKDQQHOVIRUJUDLQSURFXUHPHQWDQGUHGLVWULEXWLRQ,QXUEDQ DUHDV QDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ RI SULYDWH EXVLQHVVHV ZDV GHHSHQHG WR WKH SRLQW WKDW WKH MRLQWSULYDWH²VWDWHHQWHUSULVHVEHFDPHHIIHFWLYHO\VWDWHRZQHGDQGVWDWHPDQDJHG ,QLQGXVWU\DQHPSKDVLVZDVSODFHGRQKHDY\LQGXVWU\HYHQPRUHVRWKDQLQWKH 6RYLHW8QLRQXQGHU6WDOLQRYHUSHUFHQWRIVWDWHFDSLWDOZDVLQYHVWHGLQVWHHO PDFKLQHEXLOGLQJPHWDOOXUJ\DQGFKHPLFDOV ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHFUHDWLRQRIDJULFXOWXUDOFROOHFWLYHVH[SDQVLRQRI62(VDQG KHDY\LQGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQWWKH))<3ZDVDSHULRGRILQWHQVHVWDWHEXLOGLQJLQ WKHVHQVHWKDWD6RYLHWVW\OHSODQQLQJDSSDUDWXVZLWKEXUHDXFUDWLFIXQFWLRQDOVSHFLDOL]DWLRQZDVFRQVWUXFWHGWRLPSOHPHQWWKH35&·VHFRQRPLFSROLFLHV'HVSLWH FKDOOHQJHV LQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ FROOHFWLYL]DWLRQ DQG JUDLQ SURFXUHPHQW :DONHU 6KXH/DUG\ WKHJHQHUDOHFRQRPLFREMHFWLYHVRIWKLVVWUDWHJ\ ZHUHDFKLHYHGGXULQJWKLVSHULRGDVLQGXVWULDOSURGXFWLRQRXWVWULSSHGWKHFHQWHU·V KRSHVIRUDQDYHUDJHDQQXDOJURZWKRISHUFHQW2IÀFLDOVWDWLVWLFVUHFRUGHG DQDYHUDJHDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHRISHUFHQWDQGWKHYROXPHRIKHDY\LQGXVWULDO RXWSXWPRUHWKDQWULSOHG5LVNLQ² 7KLVUHPDUNDEOHVXUJHLQSURGXFWLYLW\KRZHYHUZDVRYHUVKDGRZHGE\SROLWLFDOGLYLVLRQRYHUWKHGHVLUDELOLW\RI
Tsai and Cook FRQWLQXLQJDORQJWKHKLJKO\FHQWUDOL]HGEXUHDXFUDWLFLQWHQVLYHOLQHVRIWKH6RYLHW 8QLRQ·VFRPPDQGHFRQRPLFPRGHO,WDOVRLQVSLUHG0DRWRSURSRVHDQDOWHUQDWLYHQDWLRQDOLVWLFPRGHRIVRFLDOLVWLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ The attempted Great Leap Forward (1958–61) 'HVSLWH EXUHDXFUDWLF DQG SROLWLFDO VXSSRUW IRU GHVLJQLQJ WKH 6HFRQG )LYH
Developmental dilemmas in China GURSSHG DQG ÁXFWXDWHG GUDPDWLFDOO\ WKURXJKRXW WKH &XOWXUDO 5HYROXWLRQ ZKLOH DJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQURVHDWDVWHDGLHUSDFHChina Statistical Yearbook 1991 FLWHGLQ'
Tsai and Cook DQGHGXFDWLRQDOLQVWLWXWLRQVLQFRPPHUFLDODFWLYLWLHVIRULQVWDQFHGHSDUWVIURP WKHLU SULPDU\ RUJDQL]DWLRQDO PLVVLRQ
Developmental dilemmas in China Table 3.4 &RQWULEXWLRQWR*'3E\VHFWRU Sector $JULFXOWXUH ,QGXVWU\ 6HUYLFHV
1952
1978
2002
Table 3.5 &RQWULEXWLRQWRLQGXVWULDORXWSXWE\RZQHUVKLSW\SH Sector (ownership) 6WDWH &ROOHFWLYH 3ULYDWH )RUHLJQa
1950 QD
1978 QD QD
2002
6RXUFHChina Statistical Yearbook Note D ,QFOXGHVHQWHUSULVHVZLWKIXQGVIURP+RQJ.RQJ0DFDRDQG7DLZDQ
The institutional basis of localism 7KH PRVW FRPSHOOLQJ UHDVRQ IRU UHJDUGLQJ 35& GHYHORSPHQW LQ KLVWRULFDO FRQWLQXLW\UDWKHUWKDQH[DPLQLQJWKHSRVWSHULRGLQDYDFXXPLVWKDW0DRHUD LQVWLWXWLRQVKDYHLQIRUPHGWKHFKDUDFWHUDQGYLDELOLW\RIUHIRUPHUDLQVWLWXWLRQV %\ ´LQVWLWXWLRQVµ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ÁXFWXDWLRQVPD\ KDYHHPSRZHUHGWKHVHLQVWLWXWLRQVZLWKDQDGDSWLYHLQWHUQDOORJLFWKDWREVWUXFWV WKH YHU\ FHQWUDO PDQGDWHV WKDW RQFH FUHDWHG WKHP &RQWUDU\ WR WKH EXUHDXFUDWLF ULJLGLW\ WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]HV PRVW VRFLDOLVW V\VWHPV PDQ\ 35& LQVWLWXWLRQV KDYH SURYHQWREHVXUSULVLQJO\ ÁH[LEOH 7KH KRXVHKROG UHJLVWUDWLRQ hukou V\VWHP IRU H[DPSOH VHYHUHO\ FXUWDLOHG WKHVFRSHIRUUXUDO²XUEDQPRELOLW\ZKLFKZDVUHLQIRUFHGE\WKHRUJDQL]DWLRQRI DOOXUEDQUHVLGHQWVLQWRVWDWHXQLWVdanwei WKDWSURYLGHGHPSOR\PHQWKRXVLQJ IRRG UDWLRQV DQG KHDOWK FDUH 7 &KHQJ DQG 6HOGHQ $V$QGUHZ :DOGHU DQGRWKHUVKDYHREVHUYHGGXULQJWKH0DRHUDWKHVWDWHXQLW·VPRQRSRO\ RYHUWKHDOORFDWLRQRIVWDWHUHVRXUFHVFUHDWHGDVWUXFWXUDOVLWXDWLRQRI´RUJDQL]HG GHSHQGHQFHµVXFKWKDWXUEDQUHVLGHQWVKDGWKHLQFHQWLYHWRFXOWLYDWHFOLHQWHOLVWLF UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK RWKHUV ZLWKLQ WKH VWDWH XQLW WR HQKDQFH WKHLU SROLWLFDO VWDQGLQJDQGSHUVRQDOZHOIDUH$PHFKDQLVPRISDUW\VWDWHFRQWUROFUHDWHGDQLQWHUQDO FXOWXUH RI SDWURQDJH ZLWKLQ WKH KXQGUHGV RI WKRXVDQGV RI VWDWH XQLWV WKDW ZHUH LQLWLDOO\HVWDEOLVKHGWRHQVXUHXUEDQFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKH&&3·VYLVLRQRIVRFLDOLVW
Policy 5/DQGUHIRUPKRXVHKROGIDUPLQJ WKHQFROOHFWLYL]DWLRQ
Policy outcome 55HRUJDQL]DWLRQRIDJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLRQLQLWLDOGUDPDWLFLQFUHDVH LQJUDLQRXWSXWWKHQODJEHKLQG SRSXODWLRQJURZWK ´7KUHH\HDUVRIUHFRYHU\ 81DWLRQDOL]DWLRQRILQGXVWU\WKHQ 8+LJKOHYHORILQGXVWULDORXWSXW IROORZHGE\WHQ\HDUVRIGHYHORSPHQWµ FRQFHQWUDWHGVWDWHFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWLQ DQQXDOJURZWKRI KHDY\LQGXVWU\
7UDQVLWLRQIURPVRFLDOLVPWR 5&RPPXQL]DWLRQHVWDEOLVKPHQWRI 5+LJKUDWHVRIJUDLQSURFXUHPHQW FRPPXQLVPYLDVXSHULQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ ODERULQWHQVLYHOLJKWLQGXVWU\ORFDO PDVVIDPLQHGHVWUXFWLRQRIDUDEOH VHOIUHOLDQFH ODQGGHIRUHVWDWLRQ &UHDWHDGLVWLQFWO\ChinesePRGHRI 8&DSLWDOLQWHQVLYHKHDY\LQGXVWULDO +HDY\LQGXVWU\KLJKUDWHRIFDSLWDO GHYHORSPHQW LQYHVWPHQWGHFHQWUDOL]HGSURGXFWLRQ DFFXPXODWLRQ 1DUURZWKHUXUDO²XUEDQJDS
²VORJDQ´5HDGMXVWPHQW 3RVW*/)UHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQRISODQQLQJ 5(DUO\H[SHULPHQWDWLRQZLWK FRQVROLGDWLRQÀOOLQJRXWDQGUDLVLQJ V\VWHPUHGXFWLRQRIJUDLQSURFXUHPHQW +56LQ$QKXLUHGXFHGFRPPXQDO VWDQGDUGVµZLWKIRFXVRQDJULFXOWXUH DQGDFFXPXODWLRQ VL]HHPHUJHQFHRIUXUDOLQGXVWULDO HQWHUSULVHVUHODWLYHO\VWHDG\JURZWKLQ DJULFXOWXUDORXWSXW\HDU &5´6WUXJJOHµVHVVLRQVVWXG\RI0DR 8:LGHÁXFWXDWLRQVLQRXWSXWEXW =HGRQJWKRXJKWXUEDQ\RXWKVDQG RYHUDOOJURZWK \HDU LQWHOOHFWXDOVVHQWWRFRXQWU\VLGH
)RFXVRQPDWHULDOUHVXOWVRYHU 5'HFROOHFWLYL]DWLRQ+56ÀVFDO 56XUSOXVUXUDOODERUFROOHFWLYH LGHRORJ\ GHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ DQGSULYDWHVHFWRUJURZWKUXUDO LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQÀVFDOFULVHV 8(QWHUSULVHDXWRQRP\FRQWLQXHG 88UEDQL]DWLRQSDUWLDO62(UHIRUP VXEVLGL]DWLRQWKHQGHHSHUUHIRUP VWDWHXQLWVLQYROYHGLQFRPPHUFH XQHPSOR\PHQW
Policy objective
&&3FRQVROLGDWLRQRISRZHU
Notes
2YHUDUFKLQJREMHFWLYH .H\DQGDEEUHYLDWLRQV&&3&KLQHVH&RPPXQLVW3DUW\&5&XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ))<3)LUVW)LYH
5HIRUP²SUHVHQW
*/)UHFRYHU\&5 DQG0DR·VVXFFHVVLRQ ²
*/)²
Time period (DUO\35&DQG))<3 ²
Table 3.6 6XPPDU\RISRVW&KLQD·VSROLF\REMHFWLYHVYHUVXVRXWFRPHV
Developmental dilemmas in China RUJDQL]DWLRQDQGSURGXFWLRQ$VDUHVXOW;/'LQJ SRLQWVRXWWKDW´$Q HIIHFWLYHOHDGHURIDXQLWFRXOGFUHDWHDPLFURFOLPDWHZLWKLQKLVXQLWZKLFKZDV YHU\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKHPDFURFOLPDWHRIWKHVXUURXQGLQJVRFLHW\µ$PRQJRWKHUV 'LQJFLWHVWKHH[DPSOHRIKRZGXULQJWKHVWKHOHDGHUVRIWKH,QVWLWXWHRI 0DU[LVP DQG /HQLQLVP EDVHG LQ %HLMLQJ EXLOW D VWDII RI QRQFRQIRUPLVW OLEHUDO LQWHOOHFWXDOV7KURXJKIRUPDOVWDWHVDQFWLRQHGLQVWLWXWLRQVWKHVWDIIRIWKHVWDWH PD\SXUVXHDJHQGDVWKDWDUHDWRGGVZLWKWKHSDUW\VWDWH·VRZQLQVWLWXWLRQV ,Q UXUDO DUHDV WKH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI VWDWH XQLWV KDV DOZD\V EHHQ PXFK PRUH GLVSHUVHGDQGIHZHULQQXPEHUEXWWKHKRXVHKROGUHJLVWUDWLRQV\VWHPNHSWUXUDO UHVLGHQWVIURPPLJUDWLQJWRXUEDQDUHDVLQVHDUFKRIHPSOR\PHQW)XUWKHUPRUH DV9LYLHQQH6KXH SRLQWVRXWWKHUHRUJDQL]DWLRQRIDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQ LQWRFROOHFWLYHDQGFRPPXQDOVWUXFWXUHV´FHOOXODUL]HGµUXUDOVRFLHW\LQWRDKRQH\ FRPESDWWHUQVXFKWKDWIDUPHUVDQGUXUDOFDGUHVEHFDPHH[WUHPHO\LQVXODWHGDQG LVRODWHG IURP HYHQ WKHLU FRXQWHUSDUWV LQ QHLJKERULQJ FRPPXQHV7KLV VWUXFWXUH DOVRIRVWHUHGSDWURQ²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ÀFHLWWRVD\WKDWWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHWRZQVKLS·VLQVWLWXWLRQDOZHDNQHVVLQLWV SUHFHGLQJFRPPXQDOLQFDUQDWLRQDQGEXGJHWDU\SUHVVXUHVFUHDWHGE\UHIRUPHUD ÀVFDOGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQKDYHLQVSLUHGDYDULHW\RIORFDOGHYHORSPHQWDOVWUDWHJLHV ²VRPHRIZKLFKDUHSUHGDWRU\%HUQVWHLQDQG/FI6XQ 'HVSLWH IXQGDPHQWDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH ZD\V LQ ZKLFK XUEDQ DQG UXUDO FLWL]HQV H[SHULHQFHG WKH GLVFLSOLQDU\ DQG PRELOL]LQJ PHFKDQLVPV RI WKH 0DR HUD WKHRSHUDWLRQRISUHVHQWGD\IRUPDOLQVWLWXWLRQVWKURXJKRXWWKHFRXQWU\UHÁHFWD UHPDUNDEOHGHJUHHRIÁXLGLW\DQGORFDOGLYHUVLW\5HLI\LQJWKH35&DVDGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHZRXOGUHÁHFWRQO\WKHFHQWHU·VRIÀFLDODVSLUDWLRQVQRWWKHHPSLULFDO UHDOLW\ZLWKLQWKHSDUW\VWDWH·VRZQLQVWLWXWLRQV7KLVLVQRWWRVD\WKDWWKHFHQWHU ODFNVWKHFDSDFLW\WRVHWWKHWHUPVIRUWKHPDFURSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFHQYLURQPHQW RUWRSXVKWKURXJKPDMRUFKDQJHVLQSROLF\$IWHUDOOWKHFHQWUDOSDUW\VWDWHUHWDLQV DPRQRSRO\RYHUWKHFULWLFDOSRZHURISHUVRQQHODSSRLQWPHQWVDWWKHPLQLVWHULDO DQGSURYLQFLDOOHYHOV$QGLWLVDSSDUHQWWKDWWKHFHQWHUVWLOOSRVVHVVHVWKHFDSDFLW\WRLPSOHPHQWSROLFLHVRUSROLWLFDOFDPSDLJQVWKDWLWSULRULWL]HVHJWKHFUDFNGRZQ RQ )DOXQ *RQJ 2I LQFUHDVLQJ FRQFHUQ KRZHYHU LV WKH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKHUHJLPH·VFRPPLWPHQWWRWKHGHHSHQLQJRIPDUNHWL]LQJUHIRUPVFDQRFFXULQD SROLWLFDOO\VWDEOHPDQQHU
Political and social dilemmas of China’s developmental path 0RVW RI WKH '6 OLWHUDWXUH LPSOLFLWO\ GHÀQHV GHYHORSPHQW SULQFLSDOO\ LQ WHUPV RI HFRQRPLF LQGLFDWRUV JURZWK UDWHV LQGXVWULDO DQG DJULFXOWXUDO RXWSXW H[SRUW
Tsai and Cook YROXPHHWF,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHIRFXVRQWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVRI&KLQD·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·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ÀWHGDQHOLWHZKHUHDV DFFHVVDQGTXDOLW\KDVGHFOLQHGIRUWKHQHZO\HPHUJLQJXUEDQSRRUDQGIRUPDQ\ LQUXUDODUHDVZKRFDQQRWDIIRUGWKHULVLQJFRVWVRIHGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKFDUH7KH À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ÀUVWGHFDGHRIUHIRUPWKHLQLWLDOEHQHÀWVRIHFRQRPLFOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZHUHUHODWLYHO\ZLGHVSUHDGDVIDUPHUVSULYDWHHQWUHSUHQHXUVDQGVWDWHZRUNHUV ZHUHDOODEOHWRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIQHZRSSRUWXQLWLHV6LQFHWKHPLGVKRZHYHULWKDVEHHQLQFUHDVLQJO\DSSDUHQWWKDWUHIRUPHUDSROLFLHVDUHH[DFHUEDWLQJ UHJLRQDODQGVHFWRUDOLQHTXDOLWLHV,QSDUWLFXODULQFRPHGLVSDULWLHVEHWZHHQXUEDQ DQG UXUDO DUHDV KDYH ZLGHQHG GUDPDWLFDOO\ DV HYLGHQFHG E\ D QHZ XQGHUFODVV RIUXUDOPLJUDQWZRUNHUV6ROLQJHU DQGVLQFHWKHODWHVXUEDQVWDWH ZRUNHUV²IRUPHUO\SURWHFWHGE\OLIHORQJJXDUDQWHHVRIHPSOR\PHQWDQGVRFLDO
Developmental dilemmas in China VHFXULW\²DUHDOVRVWDUWLQJWRIHHOWKHFRVWVRIPDUNHWRULHQWHGUHIRUP7KHVWDWH VHFWRUKDVDOUHDG\UHGXFHGLWVZRUNIRUFHIURPPLOOLRQLQWRPLOOLRQ ZRUNHUVLQDQGDQDGGLWLRQDOPLOOLRQZRUNHUVDUHOLNHO\WREHODLGRIIE\ ;LH )URPWKHJRYHUQPHQW·VSHUVSHFWLYHWKHLQFUHDVLQJIUHTXHQF\RIUXUDODQGXUEDQ SURWHVWE\WKRVHORVLQJZKHWKHULQUHODWLYHRUDEVROXWHWHUPV LQWKHUHIRUPSURFHVV UDLVHVWKHVSHFWHURIZLGHVSUHDGVRFLDODQGSROLWLFDOLQVWDELOLW\ZKLFKVRPHIHDU FRXOGXQGHUPLQHWKHSROLWLFDOOHJLWLPDF\DQGVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKHUHJLPH&KLQD PD\ RQO\ QRZ EH IDFLQJ WKH KDUGHVW FKRLFHV RI LWV UHIRUP H[SHULHQFH SDUWLFXODUO\LIQHZOLEHUDOL]LQJPHDVXUHVDOVRWKUHDWHQWKRVHZKRKDYHWRGDWHEHQHÀWHG PRVWIURPUHIRUP$WWKHVDPHWLPHGLVLQYHVWPHQWVLQEDVLFKXPDQFDSLWDOPD\ XQGHUPLQH ORQJHUWHUP FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV DQG JURZWK7KH H[WHQW WR ZKLFK WKHVH VRFLDO DQG SROLWLFDO FKDOOHQJHV WKUHDWHQ WKH FDSDFLW\ RI WKH VWDWH WR FRQWLQXH RQ LWVFXUUHQWGHYHORSPHQWSDWKOLHVDWWKHKHDUWRI&KLQD·VFXUUHQWGHYHORSPHQWDO GLOHPPD3DUWLFXODUO\ZKHQIDFHGZLWKVORZHUJURZWKDQGWKHUHIRUHZLWKIHZHU EHQHÀWVWRUHGLVWULEXWHGRHVWKHVWDWHKDYHWKHFDSDFLW\WRFRPSHQVDWHORVHUVWR EDODQFH FRQÁ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²ZKHWKHUDFKLHYHGWKURXJKWKHÀVFDODQG VRFLDOVHFXULW\V\VWHPVLQYHVWPHQWVLQKXPDQFDSLWDODQGWKHSURYLVLRQRISXEOLF JRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVRURWKHUFRPSHQVDWRU\PHFKDQLVPV²PD\FRQÁLFWKRZHYHU ZLWKWKHLQWHUHVWVRIWKRVHZKRKDYHFRQWLQXRXVO\EHQHÀWHGWKURXJKRXWWKHUHIRUP SURFHVV7KHODWWHULQFOXGHDJHQFLHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKLQWKH&KLQHVHVWDWHZKR KDYHOHYHUDJHGWKHLUSROLWLFDOFDSLWDODQGFRQQHFWLRQVWKURXJKWKHPDUNHWL]DWLRQ RISRZHU$GGUHVVLQJWKLVFKDOOHQJHUHTXLUHVDFRPELQDWLRQRILQVWLWXWLRQDOÁH[LELOLW\DQGFKDQJHDORQJVLGHDFHQWUDOVWDWHWKDWLVVWURQJHQRXJKWRPDQDJHFRQÁLFWLQJLQWHUHVWVZLWKRXWVDFULÀFLQJLWVHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDJHQGD$VDUJXHG HDUOLHUVHHDOVR3HPSHO WKHSULRULW\RIVHOISHUSHWXDWLRQRIWKHSDUW\VWDWHPD\ XQGHUPLQHLWVFDSDFLW\WRUHVROYHWKHVHGLOHPPDV
Conclusion 7KLVFKDSWHUKDVGHPRQVWUDWHGWKHZD\VLQZKLFK&KLQD·VSDUW\VWDWHUHPDLQVGHHSO\ GLYLGHGE\FRPSHWLQJSULRULWLHV7KHFRQWLQXHGSXUVXLWRIHFRQRPLFPRGHUQL]DWLRQ DQG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ LQWHJUDWLRQ LQWR WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ PD\ FRQÁLFW ZLWKWKHSROLWLFDOLPSHUDWLYHWROLPLWSRSXODUGLVFRQWHQWLIWKH3DUW\LVWRPDLQWDLQ
Tsai and Cook LWVPRQRSRO\RISRZHU8OWLPDWHO\WKHVHFRQWUDGLFWRU\SUHVVXUHVVKDSHDQGOLPLW WKHGHYHORSPHQWDORSWLRQVDYDLODEOHWRWKHVWDWH/LNHLWV(DVW$VLDQQHLJKERUV DOEHLW XQGHU GLIIHUHQW VWUXFWXUDO DQG KLVWRULFDO FRQGLWLRQV &KLQD PD\ ÀQG WKDW SROLFLHVWKDWIDFLOLWDWHGHDUOLHUVWDJHVRIUDSLGJURZWKPD\SDUDGR[LFDOO\EHFRPH REVWDFOHVWRIXUWKHUGHYHORSPHQW(YHQWKRXJK&KLQDKDVQHYHUIXOÀOOHGDOOWKH EDVLFGHÀQLWLRQDOFULWHULDIRUEHLQJD'6ZHFRQFOXGHE\KLJKOLJKWLQJG\QDPLFV RIWKHRULJLQDO'6PRGHOWKDWPD\HQKDQFHRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIFKDQJHVRYHU WLPHLQWKHVWDWH²PDUNHWUHODWLRQVKLSVRIODWHGHYHORSHUVDQGODWHOLEHUDOL]HUV $WWKHGRPHVWLFOHYHORIDQDO\VLVHYHQEHIRUHWKHUHJLRQDOÀQDQFLDOFULVLVRI WKHODWHVLWZDVEHFRPLQJLQFUHDVLQJO\DSSDUHQWWKDWWKHYHU\VXFFHVVRI'6 VWUDWHJLHV FRXOG XQGHUPLQH WKH EDVLV RI LWV RULJLQDO OHJLWLPDF\ DQG RSHUDWLRQDO YLDELOLW\,QAsia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization $PVGHQ IRUH[DPSOH$OLFH$PVGHQSRLQWHGRXWWKDWWKH'6LVLQKHUHQWO\XQVWDEOH %\ WKH V WKH VWDWHQXUWXUHG EXVLQHVV FRQJORPHUDWHV chaebol KDG JURZQ VR VWURQJ WKDW WKH .RUHDQ VWDWH ZDV DOUHDG\ H[SHULHQFLQJ D UHODWLYH GHFOLQH LQ VWDWHFDSDFLW\3HWHU(YDQV·V Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial TransformationIXUWKHUHODERUDWHGRQWKHZD\VLQZKLFKWKH'6OLNHWKHERXUJHRLVLHLQ0DU[LVWWKHRU\PLJKW´GLJLWVRZQJUDYHµ,QWKHFDVHRI.RUHDQRWRQO\ ZDVLQGXVWULDOFDSLWDOEHFRPLQJVWURQJHUDQGOHVVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHVWDWHEXWNH\ SDUWVRIWKH'6LWVHOIHJWKH(FRQRPLF3ODQQLQJ%RDUG ZHUHH[HUWLQJSROLWLFDO SUHVVXUHVIRUDUHGXFWLRQLQVWDWHLQWHUYHQWLRQ0HDQZKLOHUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWK KDGJLYHQULVHWRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVLQVRFLHW\LQFOXGLQJWKHHPHUJHQFHRIODERU DFWLYLVPDQGWKHLQFUHDVLQJDWWUDFWLYHQHVVRISULYDWHVHFWRUHPSOR\PHQWUHODWLYH WR EXUHDXFUDWLF VHUYLFH$V (YDQV SXWV LW ´,I VWDWH DQG VRFLHW\ DUH PXWXDOO\FRQVWLWXWLYHKDYLQJFKDQJHGVRFLHW\WKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHLWVHOIPXVW FKDQJHµ7KLVG\QDPLFRIHQGRJHQRXVO\JHQHUDWHGFKDQJHZLWKLQWKH'6PRGHO FDQDOVREHREVHUYHGLQWKHFDVHVRI-DSDQ7DLZDQDQGDVZHKDYHDWWHPSWHGWR VKRZ&KLQD:KHQIXQGDPHQWDOVWUXFWXUDOVKLIWVRFFXULQWKHHFRQRP\WKURXJK LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGPDUNHWL]DWLRQVWDWHLQVWLWXWLRQVIDFHWKHFKDOOHQJHRIDGMXVWLQJWRWKRVHFKDQJHV7KHUHIRUHDQDO\WLFDOO\VSHDNLQJWRWKHH[WHQWWKDWVFKRODUV DUH DEOH WR WHDVH RXW WKH LQWHUQDO ORJLF RI WKLV SURFHVV WKH '6 PRGHO RIIHUV D SRWHQWLDOEDVLVIRUH[SODLQLQJLQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDQJHHQGRJHQRXVO\ +DYLQJVDLGWKDWWKHIDFWUHPDLQVWKDWWRGD\·VODWHGHYHORSHUVDUHQRWRSHUDWLQJ LQDJOREDOHQYLURQPHQWWKDWLVFRQGXFLYHWRQHJRWLDWLQJGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHV DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO UHRUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ D SXUHO\ GRPHVWLF PDQQHU .LUHQ &KDXGU\·V FRQWHQWLRQWKDWWKH´JOREDOPRELOLW\RIFDSLWDOSUHVHQWV/'&VZLWKWKHVWDUN FKRLFHVRIWRWDODXWDUFK\RUXQSURWHFWHGLQFOXVLRQLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\µ &KDXGKU\ PD\EHDELWH[WUHPHEXWZHDJUHHZLWK3HPSHO·VSRLQW WKDW ´HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW VWUDWHJLHV FDQ QR ORQJHU EH QXUWXUHG LQ QDWLRQDOO\ LQVXODWHGYDFXXPVµS ,QGHHGWKHPRVWKHDWHGGHEDWHVDPRQJ&KLQHVHLQWHOOHFWXDOVDQGSROLWLFDOOHDGHUVUHYROYHDURXQGWKLVLVVXH:KLOH&KLQD·VDFFHVVLRQ WRWKH:72LVRIÀFLDOO\SDFNDJHGWRWKHSXEOLFDVHYLGHQFHRI35&PRGHUQLW\ DQGDUHDVRQIRUQDWLRQDOSULGHWKHUHLVFRQVLGHUDEOHFRQFHUQDERXWLWVSRWHQWLDO FRQVHTXHQFHV ,Q WKLV UHVSHFW OHVVRQV IURP /DWLQ $PHULFDQ FDVHV PD\ DOVR SURYH WR EH LQVWUXFWLYH 8QOLNH WKH LPPHGLDWH SRVWZDU H[SHULHQFHV RI -DSDQ
Developmental dilemmas in China DQG WKH (DVW$VLDQ 1,&V WKH EXUHDXFUDWLFDXWKRULWDULDQ UHJLPHV RI$UJHQWLQD %UD]LO&KLOHDQG8UXJXD\ZHUHDOOEXLOWRQWKHH[FOXVLRQRISUHYLRXVO\PRELOL]HGJURXSVZKLFKFUHDWHGOHJLWLPDWLRQSUREOHPVRYHUWLPH2QLV &KLQD·V IDUPHUVDQGZRUNHUVPD\EHVKLIWLQJLQWRWKHFDWHJRU\RI´SUHYLRXVO\PRELOL]HG JURXSVµLIJUHDWHUHIIRUWVDUHQRWPDGHWRDGGUHVVWKHLUHFRQRPLFFRQFHUQVDVWKH VWDWHLPSOHPHQWVWKHOLEHUDOL]LQJPHDVXUHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH:72,QDQDO\]LQJ/DWLQ$PHULFDQPRGHOVRIGHYHORSPHQW)HUQDQGR)DMQ]\OEHUFLWHGE\ :RR&XPLQJV REVHUYHVWKDWLWKDVFRQVWUXFWHG´VKRZFDVHPRGHUQLW\µ DLPHGQRWDWVHOIVXVWDLQLQJGHYHORSPHQWEXWDWUHDFKLQJDVHWRIHOLWHFRQVXPSWLRQSDWWHUQVDSSURSULDWHIRUGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV&KLQD·V:72HQWU\KRVWLQJRI WKH2O\PSLFVSODQVWREXLOGWKHWDOOHVWVN\VFUDSHULQWKHZRUOGLQ6KDQJKDL DQGZLGHQLQJLQFRPHGLVSDULWLHVVXJJHVWGLVWXUELQJSDUDOOHOV
Notes 2L 1RWHWKDWWKLQJVKDYHFKDQJHGLQ2L )RUH[DPSOHLQ;LQMLPXQLFLSDOLW\+HEHL0DUF%OHFKHUDQG9LYLHQQH6KXHLGHQWLÀHG DPXOWLWXGHRIZD\VLQZKLFKWKHPXQLFLSDOJRYHUQPHQWFUHDWHGIDYRUDEOHFRQGLWLRQV IRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVSHFLÀFLQGXVWULHV%OHFKHUDQG6KXH 2IFRXUVHWKLVLVWKHFDVHLQDQ\VWDWHWKDWLQLWLDWHVGUDPDWLFGHSDUWXUHVIURPSUHYLRXV SROLF\ 6SHFLÀFDOO\LQRQO\RIWKHWRWDOEDQNUXSWFLHVZHUHGHFODUHGE\62(V /L )RU D PRUH LQGHSWK GLVFXVVLRQ RI &KLQD·V SRVW HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW VHH 5LVNLQ )RUSRVWVHH1DXJKWRQ 7KLVLV)UHGHULFN7LHZHV·VHVWLPDWHEDVHGRQDFDUHIXOUHDGLQJRIGLIIHUHQWDFFRXQWV 7LHZHVDQGQ 0DRÀUVWPDGHWKLVDPELWLRXVFODLPLQ0RVFRZLQ1RYHPEHUEXWWKHWLPHIUDPH IRUDFKLHYLQJWKLVJRDOZDVFRQWLQXRXVO\VKRUWHQHGGXULQJWKH*UHDW/HDSE\0D\ WKHHVWLPDWHKDGEHHQUHGXFHGWRRQO\VHYHQ\HDUVDQGWKHYHU\QH[WPRQWK -XQHWKHFODLPZDVWKDWLWZRXOGRQO\WDNHWZRWRWKUHH\HDUV,Q6HSWHPEHU 0DRVXJJHVWHGWKDW&KLQDZRXOGFDWFKXSZLWK%ULWDLQWKHIROORZLQJ\HDU'
Tsai and Cook $YHUDJH OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ LQFUHDVHG IURP WKLUW\ÀYH \HDUV EHIRUH WR VL[W\ÀYH \HDUVE\WKHPLGV 6HH)HZVPLWK ² IRUDGLVFXVVLRQRIWKH´QHYHUOHIWRXWµFODVVZKRKDYH XVHGSROLWLFDOFRQQHFWLRQVWRPRQRSROL]HRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUSHUVRQDOJDLQ )HZVPLWK GHVFULEHV WKH FRPSHWLQJ YLHZV RI WKH SURPDUNHW OLEHUDOV WKH QHRFRQVHUYDWLYHVDUJXLQJIRUDVWURQJHUUROHIRUWKHVWDWHLQGLUHFWLQJPDUNHWVDQG WKRVHSODFLQJPRUHHPSKDVLVRQVRFLDOMXVWLFHDQGHTXLW\LVVXHVLQWKHGHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV 2QHRIWKHQHZOHIWLVWV&XL=KL\XDQKDVDUJXHGWKDWWKHWHUPVRI:72HQWU\SUHYHQWV &KLQDIURPSXUVXLQJWKHQHHGWRSURWHFWLQIDQWLQGXVWULHVHJLWVKLJKWHFKQRORJ\ VHFWRU6HH)HZVPLWK
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics Saadia M. Pekkanen
,Q $SULO ZKHQ SRVWZDU $PHULFDQ RFFXSDWLRQ DXWKRULWLHV OHIW -DSDQ IRUPDOO\ WKH VXEMHFW RI -DSDQHVH WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ GLG QRW FRPPDQG PXFK JOREDODWWHQWLRQ7KH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\ZDVVWLOOLQWKHSURFHVVRIUHFRYHU\DQG RYHUDOOWUDGHFRPSHWLWLRQIURP-DSDQZDVQRWYLHZHGZLGHO\DVDWKUHDWE\RWKHU FRXQWULHVHVSHFLDOO\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZKLFKZDVWKHQWKHOHDGLQJHFRQRPLFDQG SROLWLFDO SRZHU ,Q IDFW ZLWK WKH RQVHW RI WKH &ROG:DU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV KDG HYHQDFFHSWHGDWDFLW´DV\PPHWULFEDUJDLQµZLWKLWVSDUWQHUVWRERWKVWUHQJWKHQ WKHPHFRQRPLFDOO\DVEXOZDUNVDJDLQVWFRPPXQLVPDQGEHWWHUSURPRWHDOLEHUDO LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF RUGHU 6WHLQ ² ² 3UDFWLFDOO\ WKLV EDUJDLQPHDQWWKDW-DSDQFRXOGH[SRUWPRUHWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZKLOHWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVDOORZHG-DSDQWREHPRUHSURWHFWLRQLVWUHJDUGLQJ$PHULFDQLPSRUWV 7KLVVWDWHRIDIIDLUVGLGQRWODVWORQJDQGWKHSRWHQWLDORI-DSDQ·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et al.HVS² ²$JJDUZDODQG+DJJDUG²² $IWHUVHYHUDOELODWHUDO GHDOVZHUHUHMHFWHGE\WKH86LQGXVWU\LQPDMRUVKRZVRISRZHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV IRUFHG-DSDQ·VKDQGLQSDUWLFXODUZLWKWKHWKUHDWHQHGLQYRFDWLRQRIWKH7UDGLQJ ZLWKWKH(QHP\$FW,QWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVQHJRWLDWHGDÀYH\HDUSURJUDPWR
Pekkanen UHVWUDLQ-DSDQHVHH[SRUWVDQGWKHQDOVRZHQWRQWRDFWLYHO\DQGVXFFHVVIXOO\VHHN DQRUJDQL]DWLRQDOGHYLDWLRQIURPWKH*$77UXOHVIRUJOREDOWUDGHLQWH[WLOHVWKDW HYHQWXDOO\UHVXOWHGLQWKH0XOWL)LEHU$JUHHPHQW 7KHWH[WLOHZUDQJOHZKLFKFRQWLQXHGZHOOLQWRWKHODWHVVHWWKHVXEVWDQFH DQGVW\OHRIWKHWZLQOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQFHUQVWKDWZHUHWRPDUN-DSDQ·VUHODWLRQV ZLWKLWVWUDGHSDUWQHUVDFFHVVDOORZHGWR-DSDQHVHH[SRUWVLQIRUHLJQPDUNHWVDQG HYHQ PRUH FRQWURYHUVLDO DV WKH SULQFLSDO VXEMHFW RI WKLV FKDSWHU VKRZV DFFHVV DOORZHGWRIRUHLJQH[SRUWVLQ-DSDQHVHPDUNHWV$VDUHVXOWRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWVLQ WKHHDUO\SRVWZDUSHULRGWKHUHZDVLQFUHDVLQJIRFXVRQ-DSDQ·VWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSROLWLFVPHDQLQJH[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWVDVZHOODVLQYHVWPHQW6LQFH6ROLV·V FKDSWHULQWKLVYROXPHIRFXVHVRQLQYHVWPHQWLVVXHV,ZLOOFRQFHQWUDWHRQWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VWUHDWPHQWRIH[SRUWVDEURDGDQGHVSHFLDOO\ LPSRUWVDWKRPH&HQWUDOWRWKHORQJUXQQLQJGHEDWHVKDVEHHQWKHEHKDYLRURIWKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW LQ WKH SURFHVVHV RI WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZKLFK ZDV PDGH FRQWURYHUVLDOJLYHQZLGHVSUHDGSHUFHSWLRQVWKDWLWSURPRWHGH[SRUWVEXWWKZDUWHG LPSRUWV/LQFROQ² /LNHWKHRWKHU-DSDQFRQWULEXWRUVWRWKLVYROXPHDQGDVDUWLFXODWHGE\3HPSHO LQKLVFKDSWHU,WRRÀQGWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VPRYHVWRZDUGODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRUQHROLEHUDOLVPDWWKLVKLVWRULFDOMXQFWXUHLQFOXGHVWURQJUHVLGXHVRI ´GHYHORSPHQWDOLVPµ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À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adaptedWRWKHQHZ
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics LQVWLWXWLRQDODQGOHJDOG\QDPLFVLQWKH:72FHQWHUHGV\VWHPWRHQVXUHQRWRQO\ WKHFRQWLQXDWLRQRILWVRZQYLWDOUROHEXWDOVRWKHSURPRWLRQDQGSURWHFWLRQRI NH\VHFWRUVWKDWDUHVWLOORIFRQFHUQLQGHEDWHVRYHU-DSDQHVHWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ,QDQXWVKHOOWKHFHQWUDODUJXPHQWRIWKLVFKDSWHULVWKDWDVDODWHOLEHUDOL]HUWKH -DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVDGDSWHGWRWKH:72WUDGHUHJLPHE\HPSKDVL]LQJlegal processesLQLWVSROLF\DUVHQDO$VDFORVHUORRNDWVHYHUDOLPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ FDVHVLQWKLVFKDSWHUVXJJHVWVWKHFDWFKLVWKDWDOWKRXJKVXFKDQHPSKDVLVPD\RU PD\QRWVHUYHWKHJRDOVRIPDUNHWRULHQWHGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQLPPHGLDWHO\LW GRHVDOHUWXVWRWKHZD\VLQZKLFKVXFKJRDOVDQGSURFHVVHVVWDQGWREHOHJDOL]HG LQWKHQHDUIXWXUH 7KLVFKDSWHUDVVHVVHVWKHZD\VLQZKLFKWKHUROHRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW KDVSHUVLVWHGDQGHYROYHGLQWKHUHDOPRILPSRUWWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZKLFKLQ NHHSLQJZLWKWKHGHÀ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ÀUVWSDUWSURYLGHVDEULHIRYHUYLHZRIWKHEDFNJURXQGRI86²-DSDQWUDGHUHODWLRQV UHODWHGWRPDUNHWDFFHVVLQ-DSDQDVLWIRUPVDFULWLFDOEHQFKPDUNIRUDVVHVVLQJ WKHUROHRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWLQVXFFHVVLYHVWDJHVRILPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ 7KHVHFRQGSDUWZKLFKIRUPVWKHEXONRIWKLVFKDSWHUIRFXVHVRQWKUHHGLVSXWH VHWWOHPHQWFDVHVWKDWSURYLGHDVREHULQJSHUVSHFWLYHRQWKHZD\WKHODQJXDJHRI :72 ODZ KDV EHFRPH FHQWUDO WR FRQWLQXHG GHEDWHV DERXW LPSRUW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ-DSDQ7KHFDVHVDUHJapan – Alcoholic BeveragesJapan – FilmDQGJapan – ApplesDOORIZKLFKDUHRIPRUHUHFHQWYLQWDJHDQGFXWDFURVVWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJ DQGDJULFXOWXUDOGRPDLQV7RJHWKHUWKHVHFDVHVLOOXVWUDWHWKHZD\VLQZKLFKWKH -DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWFDQGHIHQGUHVLVWRUSURORQJWKHSURVSHFWVIRUKRPHPDUNHW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZLWK YDU\LQJ GHJUHHV RI VXFFHVV LQ D:72 ZRUOG 7KH WKLUG SDUW FRQFOXGHVJHQHUDOO\DVVHVVLQJWKHLGHDWKDWWKH:72KDVKDGWKHHIIHFWRIHPEHGGLQJ WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW LQ OHJDO SURFHVVHV EHKLQG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ ZD\V WKDWVSHDNWRLWVFRQWLQXHGGRPLQDQWUROHLQWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIWUDGHSROLWLFV
Background ,WLVYLUWXDOO\LPSRVVLEOHWRWDONDERXWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VWUDGHSROLWLFV ZLWKRXWWDONLQJDERXWLWVFRQWURYHUVLHVRYHUWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZLWKWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVVSHFLÀFDOO\UHODWHGWRPDUNHWDFFHVVLQ-DSDQ)RUWKHSRVWZDUSHULRGWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVZDVWKHELJJHVWWUDGHSDUWQHUIRU-DSDQGZDUÀQJLWVUHODWLRQVKLSV
Pekkanen ZLWKRWKHUFRXQWULHVVXFKDVWKH(8PHPEHUVWDWHVDQGRWKHU(DVW$VLDQFRXQWULHV OLNH&KLQD,Q-DSDQHVHH[SRUWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFRQVWLWXWHGSHUFHQWRI WRWDOH[SRUWV$GHFDGHODWHUWKDWÀJXUHLQFUHDVHGWRDVWDUWOLQJSHUFHQW,Q WKHÀJXUHZDVSHUFHQWDQGFOHDUO\VKRZHG-DSDQ·VFRQWLQXHGGHSHQGHQFHRQ WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVDQH[SRUWPDUNHW7KHVWRU\RQWKHLPSRUWVLGHLVDOLWWOHOHVV GUDPDWLFVKRZLQJWKDWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDFFRXQWHGIRUDERXW²SHUFHQWRI WRWDOLPSRUWVLQ-DSDQ*LYHQWKHQXPEHUVLWLVQRWDVXUSULVHWKDWWKH86²-DSDQ WUDGLQJUHODWLRQVHWWKHVXEVWDQFHDQGVW\OHRI-DSDQ·VWUDGHGLSORPDF\IRUPRVWRI WKHSRVWZDUSHULRG'HFDGHE\GHFDGHEHJLQQLQJLQWKHODWHVWKLVELODWHUDO UHODWLRQVKLSEHFDPHLQFUHDVLQJO\YRODWLOHDQGUHVXOWVRULHQWHGDVWKHLPEDODQFHV LQWUDGHEHWZHHQWKHWZRFRXQWULHVEHFDPHIRGGHUIRU-DSDQEDVKLQJHIIRUWVLQWKH 86SROLWLFDODUHQD 6WDUWLQJZLWKWKHWH[WLOHVGLVSXWHVLQWKHODWHVDVXFFHVVLRQRIELODWHUDO DUUDQJHPHQWV EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG -DSDQ ZRXOG IROORZ WKH SDWWHUQ ZKHUHE\ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZRXOG ´GHPDQGµ DQG WKH -DSDQHVH ´DFTXLHVFHµ WR OLPLWLQJWUDGHFRPSHWLWLRQLQWKHLQWHUHVWRIWKHODUJHU86²-DSDQDOOLDQFH.RPL\D DQG,WRK² )RUHOHFWRUDOUHDVRQVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKH-DSDQHVH WH[WLOHVVWHHODQGDXWRPRELOHLQGXVWULHVZHUHVXEMHFWWRELODWHUDOGHDOVWKDWSXW DUWLÀFLDO FRQVWUDLQWV RQ 86ERXQG H[SRUWV WKURXJK YROXQWDU\ H[SRUW UHVWUDLQWV 9(5V ZHOOLQWKHV6RLQJUDLQHGZDVWKLVIHDWXUHRI-DSDQ·VWUDGHGLSORPDF\WKDWWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHHDUQHGLWVHOIWKHODEHORIWKH´UHDFWLYHVWDWHµVLQFHQR SROLF\LQQRYDWLRQVEDVHGRQWKH*$77RURWKHUZLVHZHUHIRUWKFRPLQJLQWHUPV RIPDQDJLQJLWVWUDGHUHODWLRQVZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&DOGHU 1RUGLGWKLQJVFKDQJHPXFKLQWKHVDV-DSDQURVHLQHFRQRPLFSURPLQHQFHLQWKHZRUOGSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDSSHDUHGWRGHFOLQH 0RUHSHUWLQHQWO\IRUDQXPEHURI\HDUVLQWKHPLGVWKHWZRFRXQWULHV·WUDGH LPEDODQFHVDYHUDJHGFORVHWR86ELOOLRQD\HDU$VDNH\H[DPSOHLQWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVUDQDWUDGHGHÀFLWWRWKHWXQHRIDERXW86ELOOLRQSHU\HDUMXVW DV-DSDQUHJLVWHUHGDWUDGHVXUSOXVRIDERXW86ELOOLRQ6FKRSSD *LYHQWKHLPEDODQFHVRIWKHVDNH\VRXUFHRI$PHULFDQFRQFHUQZDVPDUNHW DFFHVVLQ-DSDQHVSHFLDOO\DVWKHQXPEHUVVHHPHGWRLQGLFDWHWKDWWKHUHZDVVRPHWKLQJ´XQHTXDOµRU´XQIDLUµDERXW-DSDQHVHWUDGHSUDFWLFHV(-/LQFROQ ² +HUHDJDLQDVHULHVRI86²-DSDQWUDGHFRQÁLFWVFRPPDQGHHUHGWKHFRQWHQWVDQGGLUHFWLRQVRI-DSDQHVHWUDGHSROLF\%HJLQQLQJZLWKWKH0DUNHW RULHQWHG6HFWRUVSHFLÀF7DONV0266 WDONVFRQWLQXLQJZLWKWKH6WUXFWXUDO ,PSHGLPHQWV,QLWLDWLYH6,, DQGVXEVHTXHQWO\PRYLQJRQWRWKH)UDPHZRUN $JUHHPHQWWKHRYHUDOOJRDOIRUWKH86VLGHZDVWRIRFXVRQDVHWRISUREOHPVLQ -DSDQWKDWLPSHGHGWKHÁRZRIIUHHDQGIDLUWUDGH3RUJHV6FKRSSD /LQFROQ 7KURXJKRXWWKHVDVWKHVRFDOOHG-DSDQSUREOHPFRQWLQXHGWRFRORUWKH SHUFHSWLRQVRIWKH86JRYHUQPHQWDQGSXEOLFWKHUHZDVDZLGHVSUHDGVHQVHWKDW PDQDJHGWUDGHZDV WKHZD\ WRJR ZLWK-DSDQ7KLQJVFDPHWRD KHDGLQ ZKHQWKHWZRVLGHVFRQFOXGHGWKHFRQWURYHUVLDO6HPLFRQGXFWRU$JUHHPHQWZKLFK ZDVFRQFHUQHGZLWK´YROXQWDU\LPSRUWH[SDQVLRQµ9,( LQ-DSDQ7KLVUHVXOWV RULHQWHGUDWKHUWKDQUXOHRULHQWHGDJUHHPHQWZDVFRQVLGHUHGWREHDPRGHOIRU
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics PDQDJLQJWUDGHUHODWLRQVDQGDFKLHYLQJOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQHVSHFLDOO\VLQFH -DSDQ UHDFKHG WKH SHUFHQW IRUHLJQ PDUNHW VKDUH FULWHULD DJUHHG WR LQ D VLGH OHWWHU,UZLQ² %XWRYHUDOOWKLQJVGLGQRWDSSHDUWRLPSURYHIRUWKH IRUWXQHVRI86LQGXVWULHVLQWHUHVWHGLQ-DSDQDQGLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVQDPHG -DSDQDVDQXQIDLUWUDGHUXVLQJ6HFWLRQ $SDUWIURPYHQWLQJWKHLUIUXVWUDWLRQZLWKWKHZD\LQZKLFK-DSDQZDVUHOHJDWHG WRUHDFWLQJWRVXFFHVVLYH86GHPDQGVWRSRIÀ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ÀQLWLYH´QRµWRWKH&OLQWRQDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ·VGHPDQGIRUQXPHULFDOWDUJHWVDVD PHDQVRIFUDFNLQJRSHQWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHWHVSHFLDOO\LQDXWRPRELOHVDQGDXWR SDUWVJRYHUQPHQWSURFXUHPHQWLQVXUDQFHDQGPHGLFDOHTXLSPHQWSDUWVNihon Keizai Shimbun )HEUXDU\ $OWKRXJK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV VXEVHTXHQWO\ IRUFHG-DSDQ·VKDQGRQDQXPEHURIWUDGHLVVXHVZLWKELODWHUDOSUHVVXUHVODWHUWKDW \HDUWKH-DSDQHVHVDLGQRDQGPHDQWLW-DSDQDVOHDGLQJRIÀFLDOVSRLQWRXWYHU\ PXFKZDQWHGWROHYHOWKHSOD\LQJÀHOGZLWKWKHPRUHSRZHUIXO8QLWHG6WDWHVE\ UHO\LQJRQWKH:72UXOHV 2YHUWKHQH[WIHZ\HDUV-DSDQUHOLHGGHWHUPLQHGO\RQWKHIRUPDOGLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWSURFHVVRIWKH:72WRUHVROYHLWVWUDGHFRQÁLFWVHVSHFLDOO\WKRVHUHODWHGWR ZKDWLWSHUFHLYHGWREHPDUNHWDFFHVVSUREOHPVDEURDG²DSURFHVV,FDOO-DSDQ·V DJJUHVVLYHOHJDOLVP3HNNDQHQE $V,KDYHGLVFXVVHGDWOHQJWKHOVHZKHUH WKHEDVLFPRWLYDWLRQIRUWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWZDVWKDWLWFRXOGREWDLQPRUH SRVLWLYH DQG IDYRUDEOH RXWFRPHV LQ WHUPV RI PDUNHW DFFHVV DEURDG WKURXJK WKH OHJDOL]HG:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWSURFHVVHVWKDQLWFRXOGWKURXJKDGKRFEDUJDLQLQJZLWKDPRUHSRZHUIXO8QLWHG6WDWHV$V7DEOHLQGLFDWHV-DSDQ·VFRPSODLQ-
Export liberalization cases involving Japan as complainant
Note D 'DWDEDVHGRQGLVSXWHVDSSHDULQJRQWKHRIÀFLDO:72VLWHDWKWWSZZZZWRRUJDFFHVVHG-DQXDU\ DQGLQFOXGLQJDOOFDVHVLQZKLFK-DSDQKDVDSSHDUHG HLWKHUDORQHRULQWDQGHPZLWKRWKHUPHPEHUV
'6-DSDQ²,PSRUW4XRWDVRQ'ULHG/DYHUDQG6HDVRQHG/DYHU '68QLWHG6WDWHV²0HDVXUHV5HODWLQJWR=HURLQJDQG6XQVHW EURXJKWE\.RUHD'HFHPEHU 5HYLHZVEURXJKWE\-DSDQ1RYHPEHU '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJWKH,PSRUWRI$SSOHVEURXJKWE\WKH '68QLWHG6WDWHV²'HÀQLWLYH6DIHJXDUG0HDVXUHVRQ,PSRUWVRI &HUWDLQ6WHHO3URGXFWVEURXJKWE\-DSDQDQGÀYHFRFRPSODLQDQWV 8QLWHG6WDWHV0DUFK '6-DSDQ²7DULII4XRWDVDQG6XEVLGLHV$IIHFWLQJ/HDWKHUEURXJKWE\ 0DUFK WKH(&2FWREHU '68QLWHG6WDWHV²6XQVHW5HYLHZRI$QWLGXPSLQJ'XWLHVRQ '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJ$JULFXOWXUDO3URGXFWVEURXJKWE\WKH &RUURVLRQ5HVLVWDQW&DUERQ6WHHO)ODW3URGXFWVIURP-DSDQEURXJKWE\ 8QLWHG6WDWHV$SULO -DSDQ)HEUXDU\ '6-DSDQ²3URFXUHPHQWRID1DYLJDWLRQ6DWHOOLWHEURXJKWE\WKH(& '68QLWHG6WDWHV²&RQWLQXHG'XPSLQJDQG6XEVLG\2IIVHW$FWRI -DQXDU\ EURXJKWE\-DSDQDQGHLJKWFRFRPSODLQDQWV -DQXDU\ '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJ,PSRUWVRI3RUNEURXJKWE\WKH(& '68QLWHG6WDWHV²$QWLGXPSLQJ0HDVXUHVRQ&HUWDLQ+RW5ROOHG -DQXDU\ 6WHHO3URGXFWVIURP-DSDQEURXJKWE\-DSDQ1RYHPEHU '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJ'LVWULEXWLRQ6HUYLFHVEURXJKWE\WKH '68QLWHG6WDWHV²$QWLGXPSLQJ$FWRI,, EURXJKWE\-DSDQ 8QLWHG6WDWHV-XQH )HEUXDU\ '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJ&RQVXPHU3KRWRJUDSKLF)LOPDQG '6&DQDGD²&HUWDLQ0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJWKH$XWRPRWLYH,QGXVWU\ 3DSHUEURXJKWE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV-XQH EURXJKWE\-DSDQ-XO\ '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV&RQFHUQLQJ6RXQG5HFRUGLQJVEURXJKWE\WKH '68QLWHG6WDWHV²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJ*RYHUQPHQW3URFXUHPHQW (&-XQH EURXJKWE\-DSDQ-XO\ '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV&RQFHUQLQJWKH3URWHFWLRQRI6RXQG5HFRUGLQJV '6,QGRQHVLD²&HUWDLQ$XWRPRWLYH,QGXVWU\0HDVXUHVEURXJKWE\ EURXJKWE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV)HEUXDU\ -DSDQ'HFHPEHU '6-DSDQ²0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJWKH3XUFKDVHRI7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQ '6,QGRQHVLD²&HUWDLQ0HDVXUHV$IIHFWLQJWKH$XWRPRELOH,QGXVWU\ (TXLSPHQWEURXJKWE\WKH(&$XJXVW EURXJKWE\-DSDQ2FWREHU '6-DSDQ²7D[HVRQ$OFRKROLF%HYHUDJHVEURXJKWE\WKH8QLWHG '6%UD]LO²&HUWDLQ$XWRPRWLYH,QYHVWPHQW0HDVXUHVEURXJKWE\ 6WDWHV-XO\ '6-DSDQ²7D[HVRQ$OFRKROLF%HYHUDJHVEURXJKWE\&DQDGD-XO\ -DSDQ$XJXVW '68QLWHG6WDWHV²,PSRVLWLRQRI,PSRUW'XWLHVRQ$XWRVIURP-DSDQ '6-DSDQ²7D[HVRQ$OFRKROLF%HYHUDJHVEURXJKWE\WKH(&-XQH XQGHU6HFWLRQDQGEURXJKWE\-DSDQ0D\
Import liberalization cases involving Japan as defendant
Table 4.1 :72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWFDVHVLQYROYLQJ-DSDQ²a
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics DQWÀUHSRZHUKDVWKXVIDUEHHQDLPHGDOPRVWH[FOXVLYHO\DWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQ WKHDUHDRIDQWLGXPSLQJDQGDOVRFRQFHQWUDWHGLQWZRNH\VHFWRUVWKDWKDYHORQJ EHHQ RI LQWHUHVW WR WKH 0(7, 0LQLVWU\ RI (FRQRP\ 7UDGH DQG ,QGXVWU\ DQG LWV SUHGHFHVVRU 0,7, 0LQLVWU\ RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7UDGH DQG ,QGXVWU\ ² QDPHO\ DXWRPRELOHVDQGVWHHO²ERWKRIZKLFKZHUHDPDMRUERQHRIFRQWHQWLRQDPRQJWKH WZRFRXQWULHV3HNNDQHQ 7DEOHDOVRVKRZVWKDW-DSDQKDVGHIHQGHGFDVHVLQWKH:72VRIDUEURXJKW PDLQO\E\WKH(8DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDJDLQVWLWVLPSRUWPHDVXUHV)RUWKLVUHDVRQ-DSDQ·VDJJUHVVLYHOHJDOLVPLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDODUHQDKDVDQHTXDOO\VWURQJ FRXQWHUSDUWLQWKHGRPHVWLFDUHQDDQGWKLVKDVGLUHFWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKHSURVSHFWV RILPSRUWWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHIXWXUH$VEDFNJURXQGWRWKHGLVFXVVLRQRIWKH OHJDOFDVHVLWLVKHOSIXOWREHJLQE\RXWOLQLQJWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VRIÀFLDO SRVLWLRQLQWKH:72RQWKHDFWXDOVWDWHRI-DSDQ·VRYHUDOOLPSRUWUHJLPH -DSDQ·VDYHUDJHDSSOLHG0)1WDULIIVWDQGVDWDURXQGSHUFHQWIRUPDQXIDFWXULQJZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUSHUFHQWRI-DSDQHVH*'3LWVWDQGVDWSHUFHQW IRU DJULFXOWXUH ZKLFK DFFRXQWV IRU D PHUH SHUFHQW RI WRWDO *'3:KLOH WRWDO JRYHUQPHQWWUDQVIHUVWRWKHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRUDUHUHFRUGHGDWSHUFHQWRI*'3 H[FHHGLQJLWVDFWXDOVKDUHRI*'3 LWLVDOVRWKHRQHVHFWRUWKDWKDVDQXPEHU RIRWKHUUHVWULFWLRQVLQSODFHQDPHO\WDULIITXRWDVDQGVSHFLDOVDIHJXDUGDFWLRQV 7KH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWPDLQWDLQVWKDWWKHUHDUHIHZÀQDQFLDOVXSSRUWVRURWKHU QRQWDULIIEDUULHUVLQWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRU(YHQLQDJULFXOWXUHWKHJRYHUQPHQWSRLQWVRXWWKDW-DSDQKDVORQJEHHQWKHZRUOG·VODUJHVWDJULFXOWXUDOLPSRUWHU 7KXVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWFODLPVWKDWLWVKRPHPDUNHWVDUHJHQHUDOO\RSHQ WRIRUHLJQLPSRUWVDFURVVWKHHQWLUHVSHFWUXPRIWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\7KHUHLV OLWWOHGLVSXWHWKDW-DSDQ·VIRUPDOLPSRUWUHJLPHLVLQOLQHZLWKWKDWIRXQGLQWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGDOVRWKH(8ZLWKPDQXIDFWXULQJHQMR\LQJRYHUDOOPXFKOHVV SURWHFWLRQLVPWKDQDJULFXOWXUH %XWWKHUHDUHVWLOOVLJQLÀFDQWSRFNHWVRILPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQUHVLVWDQFH7KH IRUPDO FRQFOXGLQJ UHPDUNV E\ WKH FKDLUSHUVRQ WR -DSDQ·V ODWHVW 7UDGH 3ROLF\ 5HYLHZLQWKH:72GUHZDWWHQWLRQWR-DSDQ·VFRPSOH[WDULIIVWUXFWXUHZLWKVLJQLÀFDQWWDULIISHDNVRIWHQZLWKQRQad valoremUDWHV WDULIISHDNVDQGLQWULFDWH WDULII TXRWDV DV ZHOO DV D UDQJH RI RWKHU PHDVXUHV DIIHFWLQJ LPSRUWV DFURVV WKH ERDUG7KHVHFRQYHQWLRQDOWUDGHSROLF\PHDVXUHVFRQWLQXHWRGUDZDWWHQWLRQGXH WRWKHLUYLVLELOLW\EXWWKH\DUHQRORQJHUDORQHLQWHUPVRIDIIHFWLQJWKHSURVSHFWV IRU LPSRUW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH 7KH PDLQ SRLQW LQ OLQH ZLWK P\ RYHUDOO DUJXPHQWLQWKLVFKDSWHULVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWLVQRZDOVRHTXLSSHG ZLWKlegalDPPXQLWLRQ²WKHSURFHGXUDODQGVXEVWDQWLYHUXOHVRIWKH:72²WR FRXQWHUDQGWKZDUWIRUHLJQSUHVVXUHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRLWVLPSRUWUHJLPHDOWKRXJK WKHVXFFHVVRIWKRVHOHJDOVWUDWHJLHVKDVYDULHGWKXVIDU,WLVSULPDULO\WKH-DSDQ UHODWHGFDVHV²VSHFLÀFDOO\WKHOHJDOVWUDWDJHPVDQGUHDVRQLQJZLWKLQWKHP²WKDW RIIHUWUHPHQGRXVLQVLJKWVLQWRWKHSURVSHFWVRIKRPHPDUNHWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQNH\ -DSDQHVH VHFWRUV LQ WKH QHDU IXWXUH ,Q WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRU IRU H[DPSOH PDUNHWDFFHVVFRQFHUQVDUHLPSOLFDWHGQRWVRPXFKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHUXOHVWKDW H[LVWEXWUDWKHULQWKRVHVXFKDVLQFRPSHWLWLRQSROLF\WKDWUDQJHIURPUXGLPHQWDU\WRQRQH[LVWHQW0DWXVKLWD ,QWKHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLV
Pekkanen LQFUHDVLQJO\FRQGLWLRQHGRQGRPHVWLFFRQFHUQVDERXWHQYLURQPHQWDODQGKHDOWK FRQFHUQV FRGLÀHG LQ WKH :72$JUHHPHQW RQ WKH$SSOLFDWLRQ RI 6DQLWDU\ DQG 3K\WRVDQLWDU\636 0HDVXUHVDQGWKH\DUHRQO\OLNHO\WRPXOWLSO\LQWKHIXWXUH JLYHQWKHSRWHQWLDORIWUDYHOLQJIRRGGLVHDVHVVXFKDV%6(,QVKRUWWKHODQJXDJH RIH[LVWLQJ:72UXOHVDQGODZKDVKDGDQGZLOOFRQWLQXHWRKDYHYHU\LPSRUWDQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRU-DSDQ·VLPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,WLVWKLVVLGHRIWKHVWRU\WKDW DOVRSRWHQWLDOO\VWDQGVWRH[SDQGLQWKHQHDUIXWXUHDVWKHLQFUHDVLQJQXPEHURI FDVHVQRZHYHQIURP$VLDQFRXQWULHVVXFKDV.RUHDGHPRQVWUDWH7KHJRDOLQ WKHUHPDLQGHURIWKHFKDSWHULVWRVKRZKRZWKHODQJXDJHRI:72ODZKDVEHHQ EURXJKWWREHDURQWKHVSHHGDQGVFRSHRILPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRUPDUNHWDFFHVV LQ-DSDQ
Japan’s import liberalization cases in the WTO 7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQFRQFHQWUDWHVRQWKUHHFDVHVLQWKH:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQW V\VWHPWKDWKDYHEURXJKWWKHLVVXHRI-DSDQ·VLPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWRFHQWHUVWDJH LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHQHZ:72OHJDOV\VWHP,QWKHVDPHZD\WKDWWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVZDVWKHPDMRUVRXUFHRIIULFWLRQLQWKHELODWHUDOWUDGHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ WKHWZRFRXQWULHVWKHPDLQDQWDJRQLVWWKDW-DSDQKDVWKXVIDUGHDOWZLWKXQGHUWKH UXEULFRIWKH:72KDVEHHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVZHOO$VWKHLPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ FROXPQLQ7DEOHVKRZVDVXEVWDQWLDOQXPEHURIFDVHVLQYROYHG86FRPSODLQWV DERXW-DSDQ·VODFNRIPDUNHWDFFHVVDQGLWLVJHQHUDOO\WKH86DQG(8FDVHVWKDW KDYHJRQHWKURXJKIXOOEORZQSDQHOSURFHVVHV 7DNHQWRJHWKHUDVWKHUHPDLQGHURIWKLVVHFWLRQVKRZVWKH\JLYHDFULWLFDODQG FOHDUSLFWXUHRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VOHJDOWDFWLFVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIFRQWLQXHG IRUHLJQZRUULHVDERXWPDUNHWDFFHVVLQWKH-DSDQ·VKRPHPDUNHW,QNHHSLQJZLWK WKHPDLQWKHPHRIWKHYROXPHWKH\DOVRGHPRQVWUDWHKRZHIIHFWLYHO\WKH-DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQWKDVDGDSWHGWRWKHOHJDOSURFHVVHVWKDWDUHFHQWUDOWRSUHVVXUHVIRUWUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ²DSURFHVVWKDWJXDUDQWHHVLWVFHQWUDOLW\WRPDUNHWDFFHVVFRQFHUQV ZUDSSHGLQWKHODQJXDJHRI:72ODZLQWKHIXWXUH7KUHHFDVHVQDPHO\Japan – Alcoholic BeveragesJapan – FilmDQGJapan – ApplesDUHFKRVHQIRUGLVFXVVLRQEHORZDVWKH\KDYHEHHQWKURXJKIRUPDOIXOOEORZQ:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQW SURFHVVHVDQGWKH\DOVRDOORZXVWRGUDZJHQHUDOL]DWLRQVDERXWWKHDGDSWLYHUROH RIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWLQDGGUHVVLQJIRUHLJQOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSUHVVXUHVDFURVV WKHPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGDJULFXOWXUDOKRPHPDUNHWVLQWKHQHDUIXWXUH7KHUHPDLQGHURIWKLVVHFWLRQIRFXVHVVROHO\RQSUHVHQWLQJWKHIDFWVDQGOHJDOVWUDWDJHPVLQ WKHWKUHHFDVHV7KHVXEVHTXHQWFRQFOXGLQJVHFWLRQWKHQKLJKOLJKWVWKHSDWWHUQV DFURVVWKHPLQOLQHZLWKWKLVYROXPH·VWKHPHV Japan – Alcoholic Beverages 2QHRIWKHORQJHVWUXQQLQJGLVSXWHVFRQFHUQHGDFFHVVWRWKH-DSDQHVHDOFRKROLF EHYHUDJHV PDUNHW DQG LW SDVVHG IURP WKH *$77 WR WKH :72 WDNLQJ D GHFDGH DQGDKDOIWREHFRQFOXGHG7KLVZDVDOVRDGLVSXWHWKDWZDVVWDUWHGQRWE\WKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVEXWUDWKHUE\WKH(&ZKLFKUHPDLQHGWKHFHQWUDOOLWLJDQWWKURXJKRXW
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics &RPSDUHG ZLWK WKH RWKHU WZR FDVHV DQDO\]HG EHORZ WKLV ZDV D UHODWLYHO\ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGFDVHLQWKDWWKHRIIHQGLQJ-DSDQHVH´PHDVXUHµDWLVVXHZDVUHDGLO\ SLQSRLQWHGDQGLWVGLIIHUHQWLDOHIIHFWVFOHDUZLWKUHVSHFWWRIRUHLJQDQGGRPHVWLF SURGXFWV ,QWKH(&UHTXHVWHGFRQVXOWDWLRQVZLWK-DSDQUHJDUGLQJ-DSDQHVHFXVWRPV GXWLHVWD[HVDQGODEHOLQJSUDFWLFHVRQLPSRUWHGZLQHVDQGDOFRKROLFEHYHUDJHV 1LQHRWKHUFRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG&DQDGDUHVHUYHGWKHLUULJKW WRWKHGLVSXWHSURFHHGLQJV$OWKRXJK-DSDQGLGQRWLQLWLDOO\DFFHSWWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIDSDQHODQGIXUWKHUDUJXHGWKDWFRQVXOWDWLRQVKDGQRWEHHQH[KDXVWHGD SDQHOZDVQHYHUWKHOHVVHVWDEOLVKHGLQ 7KHUHZHUHWZRNH\HOHPHQWVRIWKH(&·VFDVHDJDLQVW-DSDQ 7KHÀ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·VOLTXRUWD[GLGQRWGLVFULPLQDWHEHWZHHQIRUHLJQDQGKRPHSURGXFWVWKDWZHUHQRWQHFHVVDULO\GLUHFWO\ FRPSHWLWLYH RU VXEVWLWXWDEOH ZDV FHUWDLQO\ QRW DSSOLHG WR DIIRUG SURWHFWLRQ WR GRPHVWLFSURGXFHUVDQGPRUHRYHUGLGQRWYLRODWHWKHLQWHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\SURYLVLRQVDVYRLFHGE\WKH(& :KLOHWKHSDQHOGLGQRWXSKROGWKH(&·VFODLPVZLWKUHVSHFWWRPDUNVRIRULJLQ LWZDVPRUHV\PSDWKHWLFWRWKHQDWLRQDOWUHDWPHQWFODLP7KHSDQHOSURFHHGHG E\ HVWDEOLVKLQJ WKDW D UDQJH RI LPSRUWHG DQG -DSDQHVH DOFRKROLF SURGXFWV ZHUH LQGHHG´OLNHµSURGXFWVWKDWWKHUHZHUHRWKHUVWKDWZHUHGLUHFWO\FRPSHWLWLYHDQG VXEVWLWXWDEOHDQGWKDWWKHUHZDVDGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHZD\WKH\ZHUHDOOWD[HGWR WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI LPSRUWHG EHYHUDJHV 0RUHRYHU WKH SDQHO FRQFOXGHG WKDW HYHQWKRXJKQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWVKDGDJUHDWGHDORIEURDGGLVFUHWLRQDVWRWKHLU LQWHUQDOWD[DXWKRULW\WKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHEDVLF-DSDQHVHSROLF\REMHFWLYHRI ´WD[DWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRWD[EHDULQJDELOLW\µRIFRQVXPHUVRILPSRUWHGDQGGRPHVWLFDOFRKROLFSURGXFWVZDVLQFRQVLVWHQWZLWK$UWLFOH,,, $OWKRXJKWKHGHÀQLWLYHUXOLQJZDVDJDLQVW-DSDQWKH(&PRQLWRUHGDQGZDV XQKDSS\ ZLWK -DSDQ·V LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKLV GHFLVLRQ XQWLO -DSDQ KDG WROGWKH*$77SDQHOWKDWLWZRXOGLPSOHPHQWWKHUXOLQJWKURXJKPHDVXUHVVXFK DVHOLPLQDWLQJWKHad valoremWD[HVDQGWKHJUDGLQJV\VWHPDVZHOODVDWWHPSWLQJ WRHTXDOL]HVSHFLÀFWD[UDWHVRQZKLVN\EUDQGLHVDQGGRPHVWLFshochu%XWWKH (& VWLOO IRXQG WKDW -DSDQ KDG IDLOHG WR LPSOHPHQW WKH HDUOLHU UXOLQJ IXOO\ 6L[ PRQWKVDIWHUWKH:72ZDVERUQWKH(&MRLQHGE\&DQDGDDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV PRYHGWRHVWDEOLVKDMRLQWSDQHOXQGHUWKHQHZO\PLQWHG:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQW V\VWHP 7KHWDUJHWRIFRPSODLQWZDVDJDLQWKH-DSDQHVH/LTXRU7D[/DZ/DZ1RRI ZKLFKLGHQWLÀHGLQWHUQDOWD[HVDSSOLFDEOHWRDOOOLTXRUV7KHFHQWUDOFODLPV
Pekkanen RIWKHFRPSODLQDQWVFHQWHULQJRQ$UWLFOH,,,SURYLVLRQVUHODWHGWRQDWLRQDOWUHDWPHQWZDVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDGDSSOLHGKLJKHUWD[UDWHVRQWKHFDWHJRULHVRIVSLULWVZKLVN\EUDQG\DQGOLTXHXUVWKDQRQVXEFDWHJRULHVRIshochu ,UULWDWHGDWWKHWLPHWKDWKDGODSVHGDGHFDGH DQGWKHODFNRIVXIÀFLHQWUHJXODWRU\ FKDQJHVLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKHPHDQWLPHWKH(&DVWKHRULJLQDOFRPSODLQDQWXQGHU WKH*$77ZDVSDUWLFXODUO\GHWHUPLQHGLQLWVDUJXPHQWVWRKDYH-DSDQ·VWD[ODZ WULHGDJDLQ7KHJRDOZDVWRÀQDOO\DVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVSXWLWFRPSOHWHWKHMRERI WKHSDQHO²WKDWLVWRÀQG-DSDQHVHWD[HVGLVFULPLQDWRU\DQGLQYLRODWLRQRI $UWLFOH,,,SURYLVLRQV²DQGDOVRWRUHFRPPHQGWKHIXOOUHPRYDORIWKHGLVFULPLQDWLRQDJDLQVWIRUHLJQSURGXFWV 7KH (& VWUHVVHG QRW RQO\ WKDW ´VSLULWVµ DQG shochu ZHUH OLNH SURGXFWV EXW LIQRWWKHQDWWKHYHU\OHDVWWKHSDQHOQHHGHGWRFRQFOXGHWKDWWKH/LTXRU7D[ /DZDSSOLHGGLIIHUHQWLDOWD[UDWHVWRVLPLODUO\FDWHJRUL]HGOLNHSURGXFWV/LNHZLVH &DQDGDVWUHVVHGWKDWZKLVN\DQGshochuZHUH´GLUHFWO\FRPSHWLWLYHDQGVXEVWLWXWDEOHµSURGXFWVWKDWZHUHWD[HGGLVVLPLODUO\E\WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW7KH 8QLWHG6WDWHVXVHGWKHUXOLQJWRDUJXHWKDW´ZKLWHVSLULWVµDQG´EURZQVSLULWVµZHUHLQWKHHQGOLNHSURGXFWVDVWKH\KDGVLPLODUSK\VLFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQG HQGXVHV0RUHRYHULWDVVHUWHGWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHWD[V\VWHPDIWHUWKH*$77FDVH ZKLFKDSSOLHGWRGLVWLOOHGVSLULWVIURPDEURDGKDGEHHQGHYLVHGWRDIIRUGSURWHFWLRQWR-DSDQHVHSURGXFWLRQRIshochu)DFHGZLWKWKHLPSDFWRIWKHUHGXFWLRQLQ SURWHFWLRQWKURXJKWD[HTXDOL]DWLRQLQWKH-DSDQHVHOHJLVODWLRQZDVLQ IDFWGHVLJQHGWRUHGXFHWKHLPSDFWRIWKHWD[UHGXFWLRQDQGWRFRPSHQVDWHVPDOO GRPHVWLF-DSDQHVHSURGXFHUV,QPDNLQJWKLVSRLQWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVHYHQSRLQWHG WRDVLPLODUSURYLVLRQWKDWLWKDGLQVWLWXWHGLQWKHUS – Malt Beverages FDVH ZKLFKZDVIRXQGWREHLQFRQVLVWHQWZLWK$UWLFOH,,,SURYLVLRQV &RQWUDU\WRWKHFRPSODLQDQWV·DVVHUWLRQV-DSDQUHVSRQGHGWKDWWKHIRUHLJQDQG GRPHVWLFDOFRKROLFEHYHUDJHVZHUHQRWVLPLODUZKLFKPHDQWWKDW$UWLFOH,,,SURYLVLRQVZHUHLQDSSOLFDEOH,WDOVRUDLVHGVRPHSURFHGXUDODUJXPHQWVWKDWDWWHPSWHG WRPLQLPL]HWKHSUHFHGHQWLDOHIIHFWRIWKHHDUOLHUUXOLQJ)LUVWLWDVVHUWHGWKDW XQGHU*$77WKHUHZDVOLPLWHGSUHFHGHQWLDOYDOXHDQGLQOLQHZLWKSUHYLRXV SDQHOVWKHSDQHOLQWKLVFDVHKDGWRFRQVLGHULWVRZQWHUPVRIUHIHUHQFHVDQGWR FRQGXFWLWVRZQH[DPLQDWLRQ6HFRQG-DSDQDOVRDUJXHGWKDWWKHVXEVHTXHQWUS – Malt Beverages *$77UHSRUWKDGLQDQ\HYHQWRYHUWXUQHGWKHUHSRUWUS – Malt BeveragesKDGLQWURGXFHGDQHZ´DLPDQGHIIHFWµWHVWLQWKHGHWHUPLQDWLRQ RIOLNHSURGXFWVWKDWZDVGLIIHUHQWWKDQWKHSDQHOUHSRUWZKLFKKDGIRFXVHG RQSK\VLFDOVLPLODULWLHVDQGWKHHQGXVHRISURGXFWV6RPHZKDWLQFRQVLVWHQWO\RQ WKHRQHKDQG-DSDQZDVUDLVLQJWKHLVVXHRIDODFNRISUHFHGHQWLDOHIIHFWRYHUDOO LQSDQHOGHOLEHUDWLRQVRQWKHRWKHUKRZHYHULWZDVVWLOOUDLVLQJWKHLVVXHRIWKH VXEVHTXHQWUS – Malt Beverages PHWKRGRORJ\IRUOLNHSURGXFWVFRPSDUHGZLWK WKH HDUOLHU UHSRUW LQ ZKLFK LWV PHDVXUHV KDG EHHQ LQGLFWHG ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKHVHDUJXPHQWV-DSDQDOVRDVVHUWHGWKDWWKHSUHVHQWPHDVXUHXQGHUGLVSXWHWKH /LTXRU7D[/DZKDGEHHQDPHQGHGDIWHUDQGLWZDVIXQGDPHQWDOO\GLIIHUHQW LQWHUPVRILWVOHJLVODWLYHVWUXFWXUH7RWKHH[WHQWWKDWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGUDLVHG WKH VSHFLÀF PHDVXUH RI FRPSHQVDWLRQ IRU VPDOOYROXPH SURGXFHUV LQ WKH OHJLVODWLRQ-DSDQDWWHPSWHGWRVKRZQRWRQO\WKDWLWZDVRXWVLGHWKHSDQHO·VWHUPV
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics RIUHIHUHQFHDVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGQRWUDLVHGLWLQWKHFRXUVHRIELODWHUDOFRQVXOWDWLRQVEXWDOVRWKDWLWZDVDWHPSRUDU\PHDVXUHGHVLJQHGWRHQVXUHFRPSOLDQFH ZLWKWKHSDQHOUHSRUW :KHQWKHSDQHOUHVSRQGHGLWGLGÀQGWKH-DSDQHVH7D[DWLRQ6SHFLDO0HDVXUHV /DZ WR EH RXWVLGH LWV WHUPV RI UHIHUHQFH %XW WKURXJK OHQJWK\ DQG GHWDLOHG H[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHFODLPVUDLVHGE\ERWKWKHFRPSODLQDQWVDQG-DSDQLWFDPHWR DVFOHDUDFRQFOXVLRQDVWKHHDUOLHUSDQHOUHSRUW,WFRQFOXGHGWKDWshochu DQG YRGND ZHUH OLNH SURGXFWV DQG WKDW E\ WD[LQJ WKH ODWWHU PRUH WKDQ WKH IRUPHU WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW YLRODWHG SURYLVLRQV RI *$77$UWLFOH ,,, ,W DOVR FRQFOXGHGWKDWshochuDQGDUDQJHRIRWKHULPSRUWHGDOFRKROLFEHYHUDJHVVXFK DVZKLVN\EUDQG\DQGOLTXHXUVZHUHGLUHFWO\FRPSHWLWLYHDQGVXEVWLWXWDEOHSURGXFWVDQGWKHLUGLVVLPLODUWD[DWLRQE\WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWDOVRPHDQWYLRODWLRQVRI*$77$UWLFOH,,,:KHQ-DSDQDSSHDOHGWKHSDQHOUHSRUWWKH$SSHOODWH %RG\PRGLÀHGVRPHRIWKHSDQHO·VOHJDOÀQGLQJVVXFKDVWKRVHFRQFHUQHGZLWK WKH OHJDO VWDWXV RI DGRSWHG *$77 DQG :72 UHSRUWV %XW ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH LPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRQFHUQVRIWKHFRPSODLQDQWVZKDWZDVFULWLFDOZDVWKDWWKH $SSHOODWH%RG\ODUJHO\XSKHOGWKHSDQHOUXOLQJZLWKUHVSHFWWRERWKYRGNDDQGWKH RWKHUGLVWLOOHGVSLULWVDQGOLTXHXUVWKDWZHUHWKHVXEMHFWRIGLVSXWH&LWLQJWKHSDQHO RQWKLVSRLQWWKH$SSHOODWH%RG\DOVRFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKURXJKDFRPELQDWLRQRI KLJKLPSRUWGXWLHVDQGGLIIHUHQWLDWHGLQWHUQDOWD[HV-DSDQPDQDJHGWR´LVRODWHµ GRPHVWLFDOO\SURGXFHGshochuIURPWKHIRUFHVRIIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQDOWRJHWKHU -DSDQ ZDV WKXV DVNHG WR EULQJ WKH /LTXRU7D[ /DZ LQWR FRQIRUPLW\ ZLWK LWV *$77REOLJDWLRQV-DSDQFRXOGQRWFRPHXSZLWKD´UHDVRQDEOHSHULRGRIWLPHµ IRUWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHUXOLQJWKDWVDWLVÀHGWKHFRPSODLQDQWVDQGWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVPRYHGWRUHTXHVWWKDWWKLVWLPHSHULRGEHGHWHUPLQHGWKURXJKELQGLQJDUELWUDWLRQ%\WKHPLGGOHRI'HFHPEHU-DSDQKDGIRUPDOO\DGRSWHGDSURSRVDO WRDPHQGWKH/LTXRU7D[/DZZKLFKZDVVXEPLWWHGWRWKH'LHWIRUDSSURYDORQ -DQXDU\-DSDQSURSRVHGWKDWWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQZRXOGEHVSUHDGRYHU WKUHHVWDJHVLQDQGÀQDOO\WKDWZRXOGHYHQWXDOO\HTXDOL]HWD[ UDWHVRQWKHUDQJHRILPSRUWHGDOFRKROLFEHYHUDJHVDQGGRPHVWLFshochu 7R -DSDQ·V SURSRVDO RI D ÀYH\HDU SHULRG IRU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ ² ZKLFK WKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVFRQVLGHUHGWREHDSRWHQWLDOO\GHYDVWDWLQJIRUWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRI WKH :72 GLVSXWH VHWWOHPHQW V\VWHP ² WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV VXJJHVWHG D PHUH ÀYH PRQWKVDV-DSDQKDGGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWLWFRXOGLPSOHPHQWFKDQJHVWRWKH/LTXRU 7D[ /DZ VSHHGLO\ VXFK DV LW GLG ZLWK DPHQGPHQWV -DSDQ SOHDGHG ´SDUWLFXODU FLUFXPVWDQFHVµ WKDW DOORZHG IRU ÁH[LELOLW\ XQGHU WKH '68 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ RQ 5XOHVDQG3URFHGXUHV*RYHUQLQJWKH6HWWOHPHQWRI'LVSXWHV ²OLPLWHGH[HFXWLYH SRZHUVRYHUWD[DWLRQDQGWKHQHHGIRUIRUPDO'LHWOHJLVODWLRQIRULPSOHPHQWDWLRQ DGYHUVH HIIHFWV RI WD[ LQFUHDVHV RQ -DSDQHVH FRQVXPHUV DQG shochu SURGXFHUV SROLWLFDOSUREOHPVZLWKLQFUHDVLQJERWKWKHFRQVXPSWLRQWD[GHFLGHGSUHYLRXVO\ LQ1RYHPEHU DQGWKHOLTXRUWD[DWWKHVDPHWLPHDQGÀQDOO\DGPLQLVWUDWLYHFRQVWUDLQWVRQWKHH[HFXWLRQRIWD[DWLRQ-DSDQDOVRWULHGWRRIIHUDFFHOHUDWHG UHGXFWLRQRIWKHWDULIIUDWHVWKDWLWKDGQHJRWLDWHGLQWKH8UXJXD\5RXQGZKLFK WKH(8DFFHSWHGEXWERWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG&DQDGDUHMHFWHG7KHDUELWUDWRU
Pekkanen GLGQRWÀQG-DSDQ·VDVVHUWLRQRISDUWLFXODUFLUFXPVWDQFHVWREHSHUVXDVLYHDQGVR DZDUGHGDQLPSOHPHQWDWLRQSHULRGRIÀIWHHQPRQWKV Japan – Measures Affecting Consumer Photographic Film and Paper 7KH FRQVXPHU SKRWRJUDSKLF ÀOP FDVH ZDV DOVR PRUH SRSXODUO\ NQRZQ DV WKH )XML².RGDN GLVSXWH DV LW SLWWHG -DSDQ·V )XML 3KRWR )LOP DJDLQVW WKH$PHULFDQ (DVWPDQ.RGDNFRPSDQ\7KHHVVHQFHRIWKLVGLVSXWHFRQFHUQHGWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI LPSRUWHG FRQVXPHU SKRWRJUDSKLF ÀOP DQG SDSHU LQ -DSDQ 8QOLNH Japan – Alcoholic Beverages ZKLFK ZDV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK FRPSOLDQFH LQ WKH IDFH RI D FOHDUYLRODWLRQWKHJapan – FilmFDVHKLJKOLJKWHGWKHIXQGDPHQWDOLPSRUWDQFHRI HVWDEOLVKLQJDYLRODWLRQWREHJLQZLWK7KLVYHU\IDFWKDGDLPSRUWDQWLPSDFWRQ WKHZD\LQZKLFKGLVSXWHVDQGGLVSXWHUHVROXWLRQZRXOGSURFHHGEHWZHHQWKHWZR FRXQWULHV8QOLNHLQWKHSDVWZKHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFRXOGUDQGRPO\VLQJOHRXW P\ULDGVWUXFWXUDOSUREOHPVLQ-DSDQXQGHUDELODWHUDOQHJRWLDWLQJSDUDGLJPWKLV FDVHGHPRQVWUDWHGKRZWKHYHU\VFRSHRIFRPSODLQWVEHWZHHQWKHWZRFRXQWULHV FRXOGEHVLJQLÀFDQWO\QDUURZHGWRWKDWIRXQGLQWKHVXEVWDQWLYHUXOHVRIWKH:72 LQDPXOWLODWHUDOIUDPHZRUN,WZDVDOVRDQH[WUHPHO\LPSRUWDQWFDVHIRUVKRZLQJ WKHZD\VLQZKLFKGRPHVWLF-DSDQHVHLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGSUDFWLFHVFRXOGEHVKLHOGHG LQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHH[LVWLQJ:72UXOHVSDUWLFXODUO\LQDUHDVVXFKDVFRPSHWLWLRQ SROLF\ZKHUHWKH\WHQGWREHUXGLPHQWDU\ ,Q-XQHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVUHTXHVWHGFRQVXOWDWLRQVZLWKWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWUHJDUGLQJVRPHRILWVODZVUHJXODWLRQVDQGUHTXLUHPHQWVWKDWDIIHFWHG WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG VDOH RI LPSRUWHG FRQVXPHU SKRWRJUDSKLF ÀOP DQG SDSHU &RQVXPHUSKRWRJUDSKLFÀOPUHIHUUHGWRERWKFRORUDQGEODFNDQGZKLWHÀOPXVHG E\FRQVXPHUVIRUFDSWXULQJSHUVRQDOLPDJHV3UHFHGLQJWKH:72FRQVXOWDWLRQV WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGDWWHPSWHGWRQHJRWLDWHGLUHFWO\ZLWKWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW DERXW (DVWPDQ .RGDN·V PDUNHW DFFHVV SUREOHP LQ -DSDQ %XW -DSDQHVH RIÀ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
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics ZHUHGHVLJQHGWRSURWHFWGRPHVWLFSURGXFWLRQDQGWKDWWKH\DIIHFWHGWKHFRPSHWLWLYHFRQGLWLRQVIRUGLVWULEXWLRQDQGVDOHLQDPDQQHUWKDWDFFRUGHGOHVVIDYRUDEOH WUHDWPHQW WR LPSRUWHG ÀOP DQG SDSHU WKDQ WR FRPSDUDEOH SURGXFWV RI QDWLRQDO RULJLQ:LWKUHVSHFWWRWKH$UWLFOH;YLRODWLRQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFODLPHGWKDWWKH -DSDQHVHPHDVXUHVODFNHGWUDQVSDUHQF\DVWKH\ZHUHQRWSURPSWO\SXEOLVKHGDQG ZHUHPRUHRYHUDGPLQLVWHUHGLQDGLVFULPLQDWRU\PDQQHUDJDLQVWIRUHLJQSURGXFWV'LUHFWO\EHFDXVHRIWKHVHPHDVXUHVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWQHJDWHGWDULII FRQFHVVLRQVPDGHE\-DSDQRQERWKFRORUDQGEODFNDQGZKLWHFRQVXPHUÀOPGXULQJPXOWLODWHUDOWDULIIQHJRWLDWLRQVZKLFKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGDULJKWWRH[SHFW DQGWKLVUHVXOWHGLQWKHQXOOLÀFDWLRQRIEHQHÀWVDFFUXLQJWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV 7KH FULWLFDO LVVXH IRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LQ WKLV FDVH ZDV HVWDEOLVKLQJ WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW PHDVXUHV WKDW GLUHFWO\ FDXVDOO\ DQG DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFWHG PDUNHWDFFHVVIRU$PHULFDQSURGXFWVLQWKH-DSDQHVHKRPHPDUNHWIRUFRQVXPHU SKRWRJUDSKLFÀOPDQGSDSHU,QSLQSRLQWLQJWKHVHYLRODWLQJPHDVXUHVWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVLGHQWLÀHGWKUHHVHWVRIPHDVXUHVWKDWZHUHFROOHFWLYHO\WHUPHG´OLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHVµ7KHVHFRXQWHUPHDVXUHVZHUHODUJHO\DWWKHKHDUWRIWKH GLVSXWH7KHYHU\WHUPFRXQWHUPHDVXUH²taisakuLQ-DSDQHVH²LQYRNHGELWWHU WUDQVODWLRQSUREOHPVZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQVLVWHQWWKDW´FRXQWHUPHDVXUHVµZDV FRUUHFW DQG WKH -DSDQHVH DGDPDQW WKDW ´PHDVXUHµ RU ´SROLF\ LQ UHVSRQVHµ ZDV DFFXUDWH:KDWHYHUWKHSUREOHPVLQWUDQVODWLRQKRZHYHUZKDWZDVFOHDUZDVWKDW WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVXVHGWKHPFROOHFWLYHO\WRUHIHUWRGLVWULEXWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHV WKH/DUJH6WRUHV/DZDQGSURPRWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHV 8QGHU WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV LGHQWLÀHG HOHYHQ PHDVXUHVUDQJLQJIURPDFDELQHWGHFLVLRQWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWUDFWQRWLÀFDWLRQ XQGHUWKH$QWLPRQRSRO\/DZDQGHYHQRQWRIXQGLQJIRUSKRWRSURFHVVLQJODERUDWRULHV,QWKHFDVHRIWKH/DUJH6WRUHV/DZWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZDVFRQFHUQHG ZLWK WKH ODZ LWVHOI LWV UHODWHG UHJXODWLRQV DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH PHDVXUHV DV ZHOO DV OHJLVODWLYH DPHQGPHQWV )LQDOO\ LQ SURPRWLRQ FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHVUHIHUUHGWR-)7&QRWLÀFDWLRQVDQGJXLGHOLQHVVHOIUHJXODWLQJUXOHVDQGWKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI D )DLU 7UDGH 3URPRWLRQ &RXQFLO DQG WKH 5HWDLOHUV )DLU 7UDGH &RXQFLO7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVVHUWHGWKDWERWKLQGLYLGXDOO\DQGLQFRPELQDWLRQ WKHVH LQGLYLGXDO PHDVXUHV QXOOLÀHG DQG LPSDLUHG EHQHÀWV WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVIXUWKHUWRRNWKHSRVLWLRQWKDWWKHGLVWULEXWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHV ZRUNLQJWRJHWKHUDVDQRUJDQLFZKROHLQSDUWLFXODUHQFRXUDJHGWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQW RIDQH[FOXVLRQDU\PDUNHWVWUXFWXUHWKDWLPSHGHGPDUNHWDFFHVVIRULPSRUWHGÀOP DQGSDSHU 7KLVZDVDFDVHDERXWGLVFULPLQDWLRQDQGRSDFLW\WKDWZRUNHGDJDLQVWLPSRUWV LQWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHWFODLPVWKDWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGDOVREURXJKWWREHDURQ WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW WKURXJK PDQ\ RI WKH QHJRWLDWLQJ ELODWHUDO SDUDGLJPV GLVFXVVHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQ3ODLQO\SXWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZDVVHHNLQJWR H[SRVH D VHULHV RI JRYHUQPHQW DFWLRQV DQG SROLF\ SURFHVVHV ² SULQFLSDOO\ WKH FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV²WKDWHLWKHUHQFRXUDJHGRUIDFLOLWDWHGWKHFUHDWLRQRIDQH[FOXVLRQDU\GRPHVWLFPDUNHW-DSDQQRWVXUSULVLQJO\UHEXWWHGDOORIWKH86FODLPVLQ FRKHUHQWVWHSV5HMHFWLQJWKHURRWRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV·FRPSODLQWWKDWWKHYDULRXV SULPDU\ZKROHVDOHUVLQ-DSDQHDFKFDUULHGRQO\DVLQJOHEUDQGRIÀOPDVRUGLQDU\
Pekkanen EXVLQHVVSUDFWLFHLQHYHU\PDMRUPDUNHWLQWKHZRUOGLQFOXGLQJWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV LWDWWULEXWHGDOOFRPSHWLWLYHRXWFRPHVWRPDUNHWIRUFHV0RUHRYHULWKRWO\GHQLHG WKHRYHUDOO86DVVHUWLRQWKDWWKHFXUUHQW-DSDQHVHPDUNHWVWUXFWXUHIRUFRQVXPHU SKRWRJUDSKLF ÀOP DQG SDSHU ZDV H[FOXVLRQDU\ DQG FORVHG DQG WKDW WKLV FRXOG VRPHKRZ EH WKH UHVXOW RI JRYHUQPHQW LQWHUYHQWLRQ ,Q IDFW QRWKLQJ LQ 0,7,·V VRFDOOHG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ FRXQWHUPHDVXUHV DFWXDOO\ VDLG DQ\WKLQJ DERXW HQFRXUDJLQJVLQJOHEUDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRIÀOPRURYHUDOOIDFLOLWDWHGWKHFUHDWLRQRIDQ H[FOXVLRQDU\PDUNHGVWUXFWXUH7KHFRUHRI-DSDQ·VOHJDOUHEXWWDOWKHUHIRUHWRWKH 86FDVHZDVWKDWWKHDOOHJHGPHDVXUHVGLGQRWLQDQ\ZD\LQGLYLGXDOO\DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFWLPSRUWHGSURGXFWV,WIXUWKHUHPSKDVL]HGWKDWHYHQLIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQSROLFLHV/DUJH6WRUHV/DZDQGWKHSURPRWLRQPHDVXUHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGVHWVZLWK FRPELQHGHIIHFWVWKH\VWLOOGLGQRWGLVDGYDQWDJHLPSRUWV²EHFDXVHDVLWDVVHUWHG FOHYHUO\HQRXJK´FRPELQLQJQRWKLQJZLWKQRWKLQJVWLOOSURGXFHVQRWKLQJµ )URP WKH VWDUW RI WKH SURFHGXUDO REMHFWLRQV -DSDQ·V OHJDO ÀUHSRZHU FRQFHQWUDWHGRQWKHODFNRIVSHFLÀFLW\LQWHUPVRIWKHPHDVXUHVLGHQWLÀHGE\WKH86VLGH 1RWRQO\GLG-DSDQDWWHPSWWRKDYHVRPHRIWKHPHDVXUHVGLVPLVVHGDVWKH\KDG QRWEHHQUDLVHGSURFHGXUDOO\LQWKHSURFHHGLQJVDWHLWKHUWKHFRQVXOWDWLRQRUSDQHO UHTXHVWVWDJHHDUOLHULWDOVRWRRNLVVXHZLWKWKHYDJXHODQJXDJHXVHGE\WKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVLQLGHQWLI\LQJWKHUDQJHRIPHDVXUHV6LQFH$UWLFOH(VWDEOLVKPHQWRI 3DQHOV UHTXLUHV WKDW WKH FRPSODLQDQW ´LGHQWLI\ WKH VSHFLÀF PHDVXUHV DW LVVXHµ UHIHUHQFHVE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVVXFKDV´PHDVXUHVVXFKDVEXWQRWOLPLWHGWRµ ´UHODWHGPHDVXUHVµDQG´RWKHUUHODWHGPHDVXUHVLQFOXGLQJJXLGHOLQHVµZHUHIDU WRRYDJXHDQGIDLOHGWKHVSHFLÀFLW\UHTXLUHPHQWV -DSDQ DOVR SURYLGHG PRUH GHWDLOHG HYLGHQFH WKDW LQ LWV YLHZ VXIÀFLHQWO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG HTXLWDEOH PDUNHW FRQGLWLRQV IRU ERWK KRPH DQG IRUHLJQ SOD\HUV )RULQVWDQFHLIWKHGHJUHHRILPSRUWVPDUNHWSHQHWUDWLRQZDVDNH\IDFWRUWKHQ LQFUHDVHVLQIRUHLJQPDUNHWVKDUHLQIDFWGLVPDQWOHGWKH86FODLPWKDWWKHDOOHJHG PHDVXUHVFUHDWHGDVRFDOOHGERWWOHQHFN,QIDFWDIWHUWKHPDUNHWVKDUHRI IRUHLJQFRORUÀOPUHDFKHGSHUFHQWLQDQGEODFNDQGZKLWHÀOPUHDFKHG SHUFHQWLQ0RUHRYHU-DSDQDVVHUWHGWKDW.RGDN·VVKDUHRIDERXW SHUFHQWRIWKH-DSDQHVHFRORUÀOPPDUNHWZDVVLPLODUWRWKHLUUHODWLYHVKDUHVLQ PDUNHWVRXWVLGHRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG-DSDQ:LWKLQWKHLUKRPHPDUNHWVDOVR )XMLDQG.RGDNKDGDOPRVWHTXDODQGODUJHVKDUHVZKLFKDSSURSULDWHO\UHÁHFWHG FRQVXPHUSUHIHUHQFHV $OWKRXJKWKHSDQHOZDVQRWVRFRQYLQFHGE\-DSDQ·VQDUURZHPSKDVLVRQIRUPDODQGYLVLEOHJRYHUQPHQWUHJXODWLRQVDQGXVLQJDQLQFHQWLYH²GLVLQFHQWLYHWHVW RSWHG IRU D EURDG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH ZRUG ´PHDVXUHµ WKLV GLG QRW XOWLPDWHO\ KHOSWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV·FDVH'HVSLWHWKHH[SDQVLYHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQE\WKHSDQHORI PDQ\RIWKHPHDVXUHVRUSUDFWLFHVSLQSRLQWHGE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKHUHDOLW\ZDV WKDWWKH\FRXOGQRWEHOHJDOO\DVFHUWDLQHGIRUWKHSXUSRVHVRI$UWLFOH;;,,,7KLV ZDVEHFDXVHVRPHRIWKHPFRXOGEHDWWULEXWHGWRSULYDWHQRWJRYHUQPHQWEHKDYLRU VRPHRIWKHPKDGH[SLUHGDQGRWKHUVZHUHSURFHGXUDOO\EORFNHGDVWKHLUOLQNZLWK WKRVHPHDVXUHVDFWXDOO\LGHQWLÀHGLQWKHSDQHOUHTXHVWZDVDWEHVWWHQXRXV Even PRUHLPSRUWDQWO\QRQHRIWKHWKUHHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHVHLWKHULQGLYLGXDOO\RULQFRPELQDWLRQFRXOGEHVDWLVIDFWRULO\VKRZQWRFDXVHQXOOLÀFDWLRQRU
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics LPSDLUPHQWRIEHQHÀWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZKLFKERUHWKHEXUGHQRISURRI7KH XSVKRWRIWKHOHJDOGHOLEHUDWLRQVZDVWKDWWKHSDQHOGLGQRWÀQGRYHUDOOHYLGHQFH RIOHVVIDYRUDEOHWUHDWPHQWRILPSRUWHGÀOPDQGSDSHUFRPSDUHGZLWKGRPHVWLF SURGXFWVVWHPPLQJIURPWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHVDQGLWDOVRGLGQRW ÀQGHYLGHQFHRIDODFNRIWUDQVSDUHQF\RQWKHSDUWRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW Japan – Measures Affecting the Importation of Apples 8QGHWHUUHG E\ WKH HPSKDVLV RQ VXIÀFLHQW VFLHQWLÀ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ÀFDQWO\ H[SRVHG WKH ZHDNQHVVHV RI XVLQJ DYDLODEOH VFLHQWLÀ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ÀF HYLGHQFHEXWDOVRWKHLUQHWHIIHFW²VSHFLÀFDOO\WRZDUG86DSSOHH[SRUWVWR-DSDQ ²ZDVPRUHWUDGHUHVWULFWLYHWKDQUHTXLUHGXQGHU636$UWLFOH $WWKHKHDUWRIWKLVGLVSXWHZHUHDVWULQJHQWVHWRI-DSDQHVHTXDUDQWLQHUHVWULFWLRQVRQLPSRUWHGDSSOHVWKDWZHUHGHVLJQHGWRSURWHFWDJDLQVWErwina amylovora E. amylovora PRUHFRPPRQO\NQRZQDVÀUHEOLJKW)LUHEOLJKWFDXVHVERWK SULPDU\DQGVHFRQGDU\LQIHFWLRQV7KHPRVWVHULRXVPDQLIHVWDWLRQRIWKHIRUPHU LV RYHUZLQWHULQJ FDQNHU OHVLRQ FDXVHG RQ WKH EDUN E\ LQIHFWLRQ GHYHORSHG LQ WKHSUHYLRXVVHDVRQWKDWFDQFDXVHSODQWGHDWK7KHODWWHULQIHFWLRQVRFFXUGXULQJ JURZLQJVHDVRQFDXVHGE\EDFWHULDORR]HIURPWKHOHVLRQVDQGFDQEHWUDQVPLWWHG WKURXJKZLQGUDLQLQVHFWVRUELUGVWRRSHQÁRZHURQWKHVDPHRUQHZKRVWSODQWV
Pekkanen $SSOHVDQGIUXLWVDUHLQIHFWHGWKURXJKQDWXUDORSHQLQJVLQWKHVNLQRUE\LQIHFWHG EUDQFKHV DQG WZLJV DQG FDQ ZLWKHU GLVFRORU DQG PXPPLI\ ZLWKRXW GHWDFKLQJ IURPEUDQFKHV)LUHEOLJKWLVWKRXJKWWREHQDWLYHWR1RUWK$PHULFDEXWKDVVSUHDG DFURVVWKHJOREHIURP(XURSHWR$XVWUDOLDZKHUHJRYHUQPHQWVKDYHWDNHQVRPHWLPHVVXFFHVVIXOO\HUDGLFDWLRQHIIRUWV -DSDQ FODLPHG WR EH IUHH RI ÀUH EOLJKW DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZKLOH SRLQWLQJ WR VXEVWDQWLDO HYLGHQFH WR WKH FRQWUDU\ ZDV SUHSDUHG WR DVVXPH WKDW LW ZDV VR-DSDQ·VDVVHUWLRQVDOVRUHYHDOHGWKHVFRSHRIWKHLPSDFWZLWKLQLWVERUGHUV $OWKRXJK WKHUH ZDV QR VXSSRUWLQJ SURRI IRU LWV DVVHUWLRQ -DSDQ VWDWHG WKDW LWV WHPSHUDWH ZDUP DQG KXPLG FOLPDWH ZDV LGHDO IRU WKH H[WHQVLYH UHFXUUHQW DQG LUUHYHUVLEOHVSUHDGRIÀUHEOLJKW0RUHRYHUWKLVFOLPDWHZDVDOVRULFKLQVXVFHSWLEOHKRVWVRIÀUHEOLJKWVXFKDVGRPHVWLFDOO\SURGXFHGDSSOHVDQGSHDUVZKRVH FRPPHUFLDOYDOXHZDVHVWLPDWHGWREHDVLJQLÀFDQW86PLOOLRQ7KHIDFWRI LPSRUW FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU -DSDQHVH SURGXFHUV IURP 86 RQHV ZDV QDWXUDOO\ GRZQSOD\HG E\ -DSDQ LQ IDYRU RI D IRFXV RQ WKH LPSDFW RI WKH GLVHDVH LWVHOI LQ WKH OHJDOGHOLEHUDWLRQV)LUHEOLJKWFDQSURYHIDWDOWRSODQWVDQGIUXLWVLVWUDQVPLWWDEOH DFURVVERUGHUVDQGFDQKDYHFRQVLGHUDEOHLPSDFWRQERWKWKHHQYLURQPHQWDQG FRPPHUFH )RU WKHVH UHDVRQV WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW FRQVWDQWO\ UHSHDWHG LWV LQWHUHVWLQSUHYHQWLQJWKHVSUHDGRIÀUHEOLJKWLQWKHLQWHUHVWRIKHDOWKDQGIRRG VDIHW\7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVZLVHO\DQGUHSHDWHGO\DOVRGLGQRWFRQWHVWWKHVHULRXV ELRORJLFDODQGHFRQRPLFFRQVHTXHQFHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKÀUHEOLJKWRUHYHQ-DSDQ·V ULJKWWRSURWHFWDJDLQVWWKHULVNVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHGLVHDVH 7KHFHQWUDOFODLPVRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVUHYROYHGLQVWHDGDURXQGDVLPSOHDVVHUWLRQGHVSLWHWKHWHFKQLFDOFRPSOH[LWLHVLQWKHFDVHWKHELRORJLFDOUHDOLW\ZDVWKDW PDWXUHDSSOHIUXLWZHUHQRWSDUWRIWKHGLVHDVHF\FOHIRUÀUHEOLJKWEDFWHULDDQG IXUWKHUWKDWWKHUHZDVQRVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFHWKDWPDWXUHDSSOHIUXLWVZKLFKZDV WKHLPSRUWHGFRPPRGLW\XQGHULVVXHKDGHYHUWUDQVPLWWHGLQWKHSDVWRUFRXOG WUDQVPLW LQ WKH IXWXUH WKH ÀUH EOLJKW GLVHDVH 6SHFLÀFDOO\ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DVVHUWHGWKDW-DSDQPDLQWDLQHGSK\WRVDQLWDU\PHDVXUHVZLWKRXWVXIÀFLHQWVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHVHPHDVXUHVZHUHQRWEDVHGRQULVNDVVHVVPHQWLQSURSRUWLRQWRWKHFLUFXPVWDQFHVWKDWWKH\ZHUHQRWWKHOHDVWWUDGHUHVWULFWLYHPHDVXUHV UHTXLUHGWRDFKLHYHOHYHOVRISURWHFWLRQDQGWKDWWKH\ZHUHDOVRQRWDSSOLHGLQ DWUDQVSDUHQWPDQQHU$VDSUDFWLFDOPDWWHURYHUWKHFRXUVHRIWKLUW\ÀYH\HDUV WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGVKLSSHGDERXWELOOLRQDSSOHVDURXQGWKHJOREHZLWKRXW D VLQJOH GRFXPHQWHG FDVH RI ÀUH EOLJKW WUDQVPLVVLRQ DWWULEXWHG WR 86 DSSOHV 7KXVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWK$UWLFOHWKHFRQWHQWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZDVWKDW XQOLNHWKHH[LVWLQJ-DSDQHVHSK\WRVDQLWDU\PHDVXUHVUHVWULFWLQJ-DSDQHVHLPSRUWV WRPDWXUHV\PSWRPOHVVDSSOHZDVDQ´DOWHUQDWLYHPHDVXUHWKDWZDVUHDVRQDEO\ DYDLODEOHDFKLHYHG-DSDQ·VDSSURSULDWHOHYHORISURWHFWLRQ$/23 DQGZDVVLJQLÀFDQWO\OHVVUHVWULFWLYHWRWUDGHWKDQ-DSDQ·VÀUHEOLJKWPHDVXUHVµ -DSDQ KDG IRXU VHWV RI OHJLVODWLYH DFWV UHOHYDQW WR VWRSSLQJ WKH HQWU\ RI WKH ÀUHEOLJKWEDFWHULXPDWWKHWLPHRIWKHGLVSXWHQDPHO\WKH3ODQW3URWHFWLRQ /DZ1RWKH3ODQW3URWHFWLRQ/DZ(QIRUFHPHQW5HJXODWLRQVWKH 0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH)RUHVWU\DQG)LVKHULHV0$)) 1RWLÀFDWLRQ1RDQG WKH0$))·V´'HWDLOHG5XOHV)RU3ODQW4XDUDQWLQH(QIRUFHPHQW5HJXODWLRQ
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics &RQFHUQLQJ )UHVK )UXLW RI$SSOH 3URGXFHG LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RI$PHULFDµ $OWKRXJKWKH3ODQW3URWHFWLRQ/DZDQGLWV(QIRUFHPHQW5HJXODWLRQVSURKLELWHG ÀIWHHQTXDUDQWLQHSHVWVLQFOXGLQJWKHFDXVDWLYHDJHQWRIÀUHEOLJKWWKHOHJLVODWLRQDOVRSHUPLWWHGFDVHE\FDVHOLIWLQJRILPSRUWSURKLELWLRQVZKHQWKHH[SRUWLQJ QDWLRQFRQIRUPHGWRDVHWRIFHUWDLQFULWHULDVHWE\WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW7KH VDPHUHJXODWLRQVHQDEOHGQLQHUHVWULFWLRQVWKDWDIIHFWHGWKHLPSRUWVRI86DSSOHV LQWR-DSDQ 7KH WKUXVW RI WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV ZDV WKDW WKH 86 JRYHUQPHQW VSHFLÀFDOO\ WKH 'HSDUWPHQWRI$JULFXOWXUHKDGWRFHUWLI\WKHGHVLJQDWLRQRIDEOLJKWIUHHRUFKDUG ZKLFKPHDQWWKHFRPSOHWHDEVHQFHRIWKHGLVHDVHQRWRQO\LQWKHH[SRUWRUFKDUGEXW DOVRDPHWHUEXIIHU]RQH,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHJXODWLRQVVHWRXWWHUPVRIDQQXDO LQVSHFWLRQDWOHDVWWKUHHWLPHV PHWKRGVRIGLVLQIHFWLRQGRZQWRWKHDSSURSULDWH FKHPLFDOVUHTXLUHPHQWVRISRVWKDUYHVWIUXLWVHSDUDWLRQGHVWLQHGIRU-DSDQDQG FRQÀUPDWLRQ E\ -DSDQHVH RIÀFLDOV WKDW 86 RIÀFLDOV KDG LQGHHG FRPSOLHG ZLWK WKHDIRUHVDLGSURYLVLRQV(DFKRIWKHVHSURYLVLRQVZDVFRQWHVWHGDWOHQJWKE\WKH 86DQGUHEXWWHGE\-DSDQ2YHUDOODVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVSRLQWHGRXW86DSSOHV ZHUHSURKLELWHGIURPHQWU\LQWRWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHWVXQOHVVWKH\ZHUHSURGXFHG KDUYHVWHGDQGLPSRUWHGDFFRUGLQJWR-DSDQ·VÀUHEOLJKWUHVWULFWLRQV 6XEVWDQWLYHO\-DSDQWULHGWRMXVWLI\LWVPHDVXUHVE\UHIHUULQJWRLQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV DV ZHOO &HQWUDO WR WKH GLVSXWHV ZHUH WKRVH GHYHORSHG E\ WKH ,QWHULP &RPPLVVLRQ RQ 3K\WRVDQLWDU\ 0HDVXUHV RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 3ODQW 3URWHFWLRQ &RQYHQWLRQ ,33& ZKRVH PHPEHUVKLS LQFOXGHG FRQWUDFWLQJ SDUWLHV DQG ZKRVH SXUSRVH ZDV WR VHFXUH FRPPRQ PHDQV DQG PHWKRGV RI SUHYHQWLQJ WKH VSUHDGRISHVWVVXFKDVÀUHEOLJKW7KHVHHIIRUWVZHUHGHYHORSHGDQGLQWHJUDWHG FRXQWU\ XSZDUGV LQWR WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6WDQGDUGV IRU 3K\WRVDQLWDU\ 0HDVXUHV ,360 -DSDQIRULQVWDQFHDUJXHGWKDWLWVSK\WRVDQLWDU\PHDVXUHVFRQVWLWXWHG D´V\VWHPLFDSSURDFKµZKLFKHQVXUHGWKHODFNRIÀUHEOLJKWEDFWHULDERWKRXWVLGHDQGLQVLGHDSSOHVVKLSSHGWR-DSDQ0RUHRYHUWKLVDSSURDFKZDVFRQVLVWHQW ZLWK UHOHYDQW LQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGV RI WKH ,3&& VXFK DV ,360 1XPEHU 5HTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKH(VWDEOLVKPHQWRI3HVW)UHH3ODFHVRI3URGXFWLRQDQG3HVW )UHH3URGXFWLRQ6LWHV ZKLFKMXVWLÀHGWKHPHWHUEXIIHU]RQHDVZHOODVWKH WKUHHDQQXDOLQVSHFWLRQV 3URFHGXUDOO\-DSDQDOVRWULHGRWKHUFOHYHUPDQHXYHUV)RULQVWDQFHUDLVLQJ GXHSURFHVVFRQFHUQVDERXWWKHULJKWWRFURVVH[DPLQHH[SHUWV·RSLQLRQVLQDWLPHO\ PDQQHULWWULHGWRHOLPLQDWHVRPHRIWKHHYLGHQFHE\WKHH[SHUWVGXHWRWKHWLPLQJ RIWKHLUHQWU\LQWKHSURFHHGLQJV,WFRQWHVWHGWKHRSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQRI´VXEMHFWLYHµWHUPVVXFKDV´PDWXULW\µ´LPPDWXULW\µDQG´V\PSWRPOHVVQHVVµRIDSSOHV WKDWZDVFHQWUDOWRWKH86FDVH,WWULHGDOVRWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQ´GLUHFWµZKLFK LWGRZQSOD\HG DQG´LQGLUHFWµZKLFKLWHPSKDVL]HG IRUERWKVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFH PRUHJHQHUDOO\DQGWKHSDWKZD\VIRUWUDQVPLVVLRQRIWKHGLVHDVHPRUHVSHFLÀFDOO\ 3HUKDSVPRVWLPSRUWDQWRIDOOFRJQL]DQWRIWKHZHDNQHVVRILWVPDLQFRQWHQWLRQ WKDW LW KDG PDLQWDLQHG LWV SK\WRVDQLWDU\ PHDVXUHV ZLWKRXW VXIÀFLHQW VFLHQWLÀF HYLGHQFHDVUHTXLUHGE\636$UWLFOH-DSDQWXUQHGWRUHO\RQWKHWLPHKRQRUHG MXGLFLDOWDFWLFRIDUJXLQJ´LQWKHDOWHUQDWLYHµ7KLVPHDQWWKDWLWVPHDVXUHVFRXOG EHMXVWLÀHGXQGHU636$UWLFOHZKLFKDOORZHGIRUWKHSURYLVLRQDOPDLQWHQDQFH RIWKHPHDVXUHVLQWKHHYHQWWKDWVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFHZDVLQVXIÀFLHQW7KLVZDV
Pekkanen DZHDNHUDQGFRQWUDGLFWRU\FODLPWRLWVPDLQRQHVDQGZDVDVWKHSDQHOQRWHG OXGLFURXVLQOLJKWRIWKHDEXQGDQFHRILQIRUPDWLRQDYDLODEOHRQWKHWRSLF -DSDQ·V OHJDO WDFWLFV ZHUH RI OLWWOH DYDLO$OWKRXJK LW UDLVHG VRPH LQWHUHVWLQJ GHIHQVHVLQFOXGLQJLWVFODLPLQWKHDOWHUQDWLYHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZDVDEOHWRUHEXW PRVW RI LWV DVVHUWLRQV TXLWH HIIHFWLYHO\ 7KH XSVKRW RI WKH SDQHO GHOLEHUDWLRQV EDVHGERWKRQWKHDUJXPHQWRIWKHSDUWLHVDVZHOODVRQWKHWHVWLPRQ\RIH[SHUWV ZDV WKDWWKHUHZDV QRUDWLRQDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFHDQG -DSDQ·VPHDVXUHVWKDWWKH\ZHUHPDLQWDLQHGZLWKRXWVXIÀFLHQWVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFH DVUHTXLUHGWKDWWKH\ZHUHFOHDUO\GLVSURSRUWLRQDWHWRWKHULVNVLGHQWLÀHGDQGWKDW WKH\ZHUHQRWEDVHGRQDULVNDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHHQWU\DQGVSUHDGRIWKHGLVHDVHDQG UHODWHGFRQVHTXHQFHV8SRQDSSHDOE\WKHSDUWLHVWKH$SSHOODWH%RG\XSKHOGDOO RIWKHSDQHO·VÀQGLQJV
Conclusion $V WKH :72 FDVHV LQ WKLV FKDSWHU LPSOLFDWLQJ -DSDQ·V LPSRUW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ PHDVXUHVVKRZWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHDSSDUDWXVLVOLNHO\WRUHPDLQFHQWUDOLQFRQWLQXHG GHEDWHVRYHUPDUNHWDFFHVV7KHUHDVRQIRUWKLVFRQWLQXHGFHQWUDOLW\FRPHVIURP WKHHQPHVKPHQWRIQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWV-DSDQ·VLQFOXGHGLQWKHHODERUDWHOHJDO VWUXFWXUHRIWKH:72WUDGLQJUHJLPH,QOLQHZLWKWKLVYROXPH·VHPSKDVLVRQODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQSUHVVXUHVWKLVPHDQVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVDGDSWHGWR WKHQHZ:72UHDOLWLHVDQGLQWKHFRQWH[WRIORQJUXQQLQJFRQFHSWXDOGHEDWHV DERXWPDUNHWDFFHVVLQ-DSDQLWZRXOGEHIXUWKHUDSSURSULDWHWRVD\WKDWLWQRZ QRORQJHURQO\FRQIURQWV gaiatsuIRUHLJQSUHVVXUH EXWFDQDOVRH[HUW´UHYHUVH gaiatsuµZKHQGHDOLQJZLWKLWVWUDGHSDUWQHUV -DSDQ·V OHJDOLVP LQ WKH GRPHVWLF DUHQD KDV GLUHFW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU LPSRUW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKH IXWXUH 7KH FDVHV GLVFXVVHG LQ WKLV FKDSWHU DOHUW XV WR WKH PDQ\SLWIDOOV-DSDQ·VWUDGHSDUWQHUVPD\FRQWLQXHWRFRQIURQWLQWKHIXWXUHDQG WKHVRUWVRIGHIHQVHVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWPD\OHJLWLPDWHO\UDLVHLQWKH :72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWV\VWHP)URPDPHWKRGRORJLFDOYLHZSRLQWWKHQXPEHURI FDVHVLVVPDOODQGPD\WKHUHIRUHEHWKRXJKWRIDVEHLQJRIGXELRXVJHQHUDOL]DWLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ DV OLWLJDQWV DUH FRQFHUQHG ZLWK VSHFLÀF UHPHGLHV LQ WKHLU RZQ LQGLYLGXDOFDVHV%XWWKHUHDOLW\LVWKDWWKHOHJDOLPSRUWRIWKHFDVHVIDURXWZHLJKVWKHLU QXPHUDOFRXQWDQGDGRSWHG:72UHSRUWVGRKDYHVWURQJSHUVXDVLYHDXWKRULW\LQ WKHWZROHYHOKLHUDUFKLFDO:72UHYLHZV\VWHPHYHQLIWKHUHLVQRIRUPDOstare decisis 3DOPHWHUDQG0DYURLGLV² 7KHSRLQWWKHUHIRUHLVQRWMXVW DERXWZLQQLQJDQGORVLQJ$VDSUDFWLFDOPDWWHUSDUWLHVSDQHOVDQGWKH$SSHOODWH %RG\ WDNH WKH UHDVRQLQJ RI VXFK FDVHV LQWR DFFRXQW 7KH YHU\ SUHVHQFH RI WKH DGRSWHGFDVHVFDQWKHUHIRUHKDYHDQHIIHFWRQZKHWKHUGLVSXWHVFDQVWDQGRUIDOORQ OHJDOPHULWVLQDUHDVRIVXEVWDQWLYHLQWHUHVWWRWKRVHFRQFHUQHGZLWKVSHFLÀFLVVXHV RIPDUNHWDFFHVVLQ-DSDQJapan – Alcoholic BeveragesVKRZVKRZDWDQJLEOHWD[ GLIIHUHQWLDOZKLFKGLVFULPLQDWHGDJDLQVWIRUHLJQSURGXFWVFDQEHSLQSRLQWHGZLWK DFFXUDF\EXWFDQWDNHIRUPDO:72DUELWUDWLRQWROD\WRUHVWJapan – FilmVKRZV WKHGLIÀFXOWLHVRISLQSRLQWLQJ-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWLQYROYHPHQWLQFDVHVVXFKDV LQFRPSHWLWLRQSROLF\ZKHUHWKHUXOHVDUHVWLOOUXGLPHQWDU\Japan – ApplesOLNH
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics DSUHYLRXVUHODWHGDJULFXOWXUHFDVHVKRZVDGDSWLYHOHJDOLQJHQXLW\ZKHQJRYHUQPHQWPHDVXUHVDUHGHIHQGHGRQWKHEDVLVRIHQYLURQPHQWDODQGKHDOWKFRQFHUQV WKDWFDQEHPDLQWDLQHGRQWKHEDVLVRIVXIÀFLHQWVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFH 7KH YROXPH RI VXFK FDVHV DJDLQVW -DSDQ LV OLNHO\ WR JURZ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH $VLDQDUHD:LWKWKHULVHRIERWK.RUHDQDQG&KLQHVHGLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWDFWLYLW\ LQ WKH:72 WKH LVVXH RI -DSDQ·V LPSRUW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ VHFWRUV UDQJLQJ IURP DJULFXOWXUHWRWH[WLOHVDQGHYHQKLJKWHFKQRORJ\LVOLNHO\WRFRPHXQGHULQFUHDVLQJVFUXWLQ\LQWKHQHDUIXWXUH.RUHDLVDOUHDG\WKHÀUVWWLPH$VLDQFRPSODLQDQW DJDLQVW-DSDQDQGDV7DEOHVKRZVLWKDVUHFHQWO\ÀOHGDQDJULFXOWXUDOUHODWHG FDVHDJDLQVW-DSDQHVHPHDVXUHV&KLQDDQG-DSDQKDYHDOVRDOUHDG\ORFNHGKRUQV RYHUVDIHJXDUGVHYHQEHIRUH&KLQDDFFHGHGWRWKH:720RUHRYHUDV3HDUVRQ DUJXHVLQWKHFRXQWHUSDUWFKDSWHUKHUH&KLQD·VOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDVEHHQPRUHSURQRXQFHGLQWKHH[SRUWVHFWRUWKDQLQWKHLPSRUWRQHQRQWDULIIEDUULHUV17%V VXFKDVVWDQGDUGVFHUWLÀFDWLRQDQGSURGXFWW\SHWHVWLQJDERXQGWUDGHUHPHGLHV OLNH DQWLGXPSLQJ DUH RQ WKH ULVH DQG OHJDO OHYHUDJH LQ WKH:72 ZLOO EHFRPH LQFUHDVLQJO\LPSRUWDQWWRWKH&KLQHVHOHDGHUVKLS 7KHVHDUHDOOSRWHQWLDO6LQR-DSDQHVHSDWKZD\VWR:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWLQ WKH IXWXUH DV ERWK VWDWHV JUDSSOH ZLWK LQWHJUDWLQJ DQG FRPSHQVDWLQJ WKHLU FRQVWLWXHQFLHVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKHWUDGHH[SDQGLQJUXOHVWKH\DUHREOLJHGWRXSKROG :KDWHYHUWKHVFRSHRUVXEVWDQFHRI-DSDQ·VWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWKHUHDOLW\LVWKDW WKH -DSDQHVH VWDWH ZLOO UHPDLQ FHQWUDO WR WKH SURFHVVHV LQ D:72 ZRUOG7UDGH ZLWK-DSDQPD\RUPD\QRWEHRSHQLQWKHQHDUIXWXUHZKHWKHUZLWK$VLDQSDUWQHUV RURWKHUVEXWZKDWLVFOHDULVWKDWLWZLOOEHLQFUHDVLQJO\VXEMHFWHGWRLQWHUQDWLRQDO OHJDOFRQVWUDLQWV
Notes )RUDQRYHUYLHZVHH.RPL\DDQG,WRKHVS² *$77 GATT Activities in 1961/62 KHUHDIWHU GA [year] ² DQG *$77 BISD 10th Suppl. 1962²2QWKHKLVWRULFDOUROHSOD\HGE\$XVWUDOLDDQGHVSHFLDOO\WKH 8.LQRSSRVLQJ-DSDQ·VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH*$77DVZHOODVWKHZLGHVSUHDGIHDUDERXW -DSDQ·VFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVWKDWOHGWR$UWLFOH;;9VHHDOVR$NDQH\DHVS² ² Nihon Tokei Nenkan 2002 (Japan Statistical Yearbook 2002)² ,QWHUYLHZ0LQLVWU\RI,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG,QGXVWU\0,7, RIÀFLDO7RN\R ,QWHUYLHZ 0,7, DQG 0LQLVWU\ RI )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV 02)$ RIÀFLDOV 7RN\R 6HH:72:77356Trade Policy Review: Japan – Report by the Secretariat 'HFHPEHU ,9² 6HH:72Trade Policy Review: Japan – Concluding Remarks by the Chairperson -DQXDU\DQG -DSDQ IRU H[DPSOH KDV EHHQ YHU\ FRQFHUQHG DERXW WKH VDIHW\ RI 86 EHHI LPSRUWV JLYHQ%6(RUPDGFRZGLVHDVH6HH´86(\HV7HUPLQDWLRQRI%HHI%DQ-DSDQVHHNV $VVXUDQFHVRQ6DIHW\µThe Japan Times-DQXDU\ 8QOHVVRWKHUZLVHLQGLFDWHGDOOFDVHVGLVFXVVHGKHUHDUHIURPWKRVHWKDWDSSHDURQOLQH DWZZZZWRRUJ 8QOHVVRWKHUZLVHLQGLFDWHGWKHGLVFXVVLRQRIWKLVFDVHGUDZVH[FOXVLYHO\RQ*$77 /Japan – Customs Duties, Taxes and Labelling Practices on Imported Wines and Alcoholic Beverages – Report of the Panel 1RYHPEHU :72 :7
Pekkanen
'65:7'65:7'65Japan – Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages – Report of the Panel -XO\ :72:7'6$%5:7'6$%5:7'6$%5 Japan – Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages – Report of the Appellate Body2FWREHU :72 :7'6:7'6:7'6 Japan – Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages – Arbitration)HEUXDU\ :72:7'6:7'6:7 '6 Japan – Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages – Mutually Accepted Solution on Modalities for Implementation.$OO UHIHUHQFHV EHORZ DUH WR WKH VHFWLRQ QXPEHUV LQ WKHVHUHOHYDQWGRFXPHQWVLGHQWLÀHGE\GATT PAWTO PA; WTO ABWTO AR and WTO MAS GATT PA² GATT PA GATT PA² GATT PA² ,LGD DOVR SRLQWV RXW WKDW EHWZHHQ WKH *$77 DQG :72 FDVHV WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQWHOLPLQDWHGPRVWH[WUHPHIRUPVRIGLVFULPLQDWLRQEXWWD[GLVFULPLQDWLRQ GLGUHPDLQ7KLVOHGWKH(&WRFRPSODLQFRQWLQXRXVO\DERXW-DSDQ·VLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ EHJLQQLQJLQERWKZLWKLQWKH*$77DQGDOVRELODWHUDOO\ WTO PA WTO PA²² WTO PA²² $VWKHSDUWLHV·DUJXPHQWVPDGHFOHDUWKLVUHIHUUHGWRWKH6SHFLDO7D[DWLRQ0HDVXUHV /DZZKLFKSURYLGHGWD[UHOLHIPHDVXUHVEHWZHHQ$SULODQG0DUFK IRUVPDOO-DSDQHVHSURGXFHUVRIGLIIHUHQWshochuJUDGHVUHÀQHGVDNHDQGZLQHV WTO PA 6HHHVSHFLDOO\WTO PA² WTO AB (+F, :72$5,²,,²,,,,,,²9 8QOHVV RWKHUZLVH LQGLFDWHG WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKLV FDVH GUDZV H[FOXVLYHO\ RQ:72 :7'65Japan – Measures Affecting Consumer Photographic Film and Paper – Report of the Panel 0DUFK $OOUHIHUHQFHVEHORZUHODWHGWRWKLVFDVHDUH WRWKHVHFWLRQQXPEHUVLQWKLVSDQHOUHSRUWLGHQWLÀHGE\PA PA PA² ,QWHUYLHZ02)$RIÀFLDO7RN\R ,QWHUYLHZH[0,7,RIÀFLDO7RN\R PA PAVHHDOVRIQDQGWUDQVODWLRQLVVXH PA²VHHDOVRIQPA² $V-DSDQDOVRULJKWO\SRLQWHGRXWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGWDNHQWKHKLJKO\XQXVXDOVWHS RIDVVHUWLQJD´QRQYLRODWLRQµFODLPLQZKLFKDPHPEHUDVVHUWVWKDWLWVEHQHÀWVDUH EHLQJQXOOLÀHGRULPSDLUHGE\DPHDVXUHWKDWGRHVQRWFRQÁLFWZLWK:72SURYLVLRQV 7KHQRQYLRODWLRQFODLPZDVEDVHGSULQFLSDOO\RQWKH´GLVWULEXWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHVµ $V -DSDQ SRLQWHG RXW VXFK FODLPV DUH QRW QRUPDOO\ FRQVLGHUHG XQWLO WKH DOOHJHG YLRODWLRQV KDYH EHHQ DGGUHVVHG 0RUHRYHU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV FRXOG QRW PDNH GLVWULEXWLRQFRXQWHUPHDVXUHVZKLFKDOOHJHGO\OHGWRWKHFUHDWLRQRIDQH[FOXVLRQDU\ GLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPIRUFRQVXPHUSKRWRJUDSKLFPDWHULDOVWKHFHQWHUSLHFHRIERWKLWV YLRODWLRQDQGQRQYLRODWLRQFODLPV6HHPA PA² PA 6HHIRULQVWDQFHPADQG² PA² PA² PA 3$
The legal evolution of Japan’s trade liberalization politics 3$² 7KH HDUOLHU FDVH LV :72 :7'65 Japan – Measures Affecting Agricultural Products – Report of the Panel 2FWREHU DQG :72 :7'6$%5 Japan – Measures Affecting Agricultural Products – Report of the Appellate Body )HEUXDU\ +HUHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDGFKDUJHGWKDWVHYHUDO-DSDQHVHODZV DQG UHJXODWLRQV SURKLELWHG WKH LPSRUWDWLRQ RI HLJKW DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWV DV WKH\ FRXOG EH SRWHQWLDO KRVWV RI FRGOLQJ PRWK ZKLFK ZDV RI TXDUDQWLQH VLJQLÀFDQFH WR WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW-DSDQDOORZHGLPSRUWVRQO\LIWKHH[SRUWLQJFRXQWULHVXVHG DQDOWHUQDWLYHTXDUDQWLQHWUHDWPHQWWKDWZDVHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHPHDVXUHVRILWVLPSRUW SURKLELWLRQV7KH-DSDQHVH0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUHGHYHORSHGJXLGHOLQHVWKDWFODULÀHG WKH WHVWLQJ UHTXLUHPHQWVIRU OLIWLQJRI WKH LPSRUW SURKLELWLRQV IRU WKH SURGXFWV DQG DOVR DGGLWLRQDO YDULHWLHV RI WKH SURGXFW 7KLV ODWWHU JXLGHOLQH ² WKH YDULHWDO WHVWLQJ UHTXLUHPHQW²EHFDPHWKHVXEMHFWRIGLVSXWHDQGERWKWKHSDQHODQG$SSHOODWH%RG\ IRXQGWKDW-DSDQPDLQWDLQHGLWZLWKRXWVXIÀFLHQWVFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFHDVUHTXLUHGXQGHU WKH636DJUHHPHQW6LQFHWKLVFDVHDOVRLQYROYHGWKH636DJUHHPHQWLQWKHDJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU,FKRVHWRIRFXVRQWKHPRUHUHFHQWFDVHIRUUHDVRQVRIVSDFH 8QOHVV RWKHUZLVH LQGLFDWHG WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKLV FDVH GUDZV H[FOXVLYHO\ RQ:72 :7'65 Japan – Measures Affecting the Importation of Apples – Report of the Panel-XO\ DQG:72:7'6$%5Japan – Measures Affecting the Importation of Apples – Report of the Appellate Body1RYHPEHU $OO UHIHUHQFHVEHORZUHODWHGWRWKLVFDVHDUHWRWKHVHFWLRQQXPEHUVLQWKLVSDQHOUHSRUW LGHQWLÀHGE\PA DQG$SSHOODWH%RG\UHSRUWLGHQWLÀHGE\AB 6HHKHUHVSHFLÀFDOO\ PA LQ ZKLFK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DOVR DVVHUWHG WKDW LW KDG SURYLGHG -DSDQ ZLWK VFLHQWLÀFHYLGHQFHDVHDUO\DVWKDWWKHGLVHDVHLQWKLVSDUWLFXODUFDVHÀUHEOLJKW ZDVQRWWUDQVPLWWHGYLDDSSOHV 7KHHYLGHQFHIDFWRUZDVRIFHQWUDOFRQFHUQWRWKH(8LQLWVWKLUGSDUW\VXEPLVVLRQWR WKHFDVHPA² 6HH DOVR VSHFLÀFDOO\ 636$UWLFOH %DVLF 5LJKWV DQG 2EOLJDWLRQV DQG$UWLFOH $VVHVVPHQW RI 5LVN DQG 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH $SSURSULDWH /HYHO RI 6DQLWDU\ RU 3K\WRVDQLWDU\3URWHFWLRQ 6HHDOVRPA² PA² PA² PA² )RUH[DPSOHPA 6HH HVSHFLDOO\ PA )URP WKH WHUPV RI UHIHUHQFHWRWKHOHJDODUJXPHQWDWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHSDUWLHVWKURXJKRXWWKHSURFHHGLQJV WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFRQVLVWHQWO\VWXFNWRWKLVFHQWUDODUJXPHQW PA PA PA²PA 6HHDOVRPA PA PA² PA PA² 7ZRRWKHU,360V*XLGHOLQHVIRU3HVW5LVN$QDO\VLV1XPEHU DQG1R 3HVW5LVN$QDO\VLVIRU4XDUDQWLQH3HVWV1XPEHU ZHUHDOVRUDLVHGLQWKH GLVSXWH2Q-DSDQ·VDVVHUWLRQVVHHVSHFLÀFDOO\PA 6HHPA²²²DQG² RQ WKHVH YDULRXV SRLQWV %DVHG RQ VHYHUDO VWXGLHV PXFK RI -DSDQ·V DUJXPHQWDWLRQ VWHPPHG IURP WKH SUHPLVH WKDW WKH ÀUH EOLJKW EDFWHULD FRXOG VXUYLYH RYHU WKH ORQJ WHUPLQVLGHRURQWKHVXUIDFHRIZKDWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFDOOHG´PDWXUHV\PSWRPOHVVµ DSSOHV
Pekkanen PA ² ² 7KH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV KDG DOVR UDLVHG FODLPV XQGHU *$77 $UWLFOH,;*HQHUDO(OLPLQDWLRQRI4XDQWLWDWLYH5HVWULFWLRQV DQG$UWLFOHXQGHU WKH$JUHHPHQW RI$JULFXOWXUH 0DUNHW$FFHVV *LYHQ WKH FKDLQ RI UHDVRQLQJ WKDW IRFXVHGRQYLRODWLRQVRISURYLVLRQVRIWKH636DJUHHPHQWWKHSDQHOGLGQRWUXOHRQ WKHVHDOOHJHGYLRODWLRQVODUJHO\IRUUHDVRQVRIMXGLFLDOHFRQRP\,QDGGLWLRQWKHSDQHO GLVPLVVHG86FKDUJHVRIODFNRIWUDQVSDUHQF\XQGHU636$UWLFOH 6HHWKHÀQGLQJVDQGFRQFOXVLRQVAB²
7KHLQVWLWXWLRQDOSROLWLFDODQG global foundations of China’s trade liberalization Margaret M. Pearson
1RFRXQWU\KDVH[SDQGHGLWVSUHVHQFHLQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\DVUDSLGO\DV&KLQD KDVRYHUWKHSDVWWZRDQGDKDOIGHFDGHV7UDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDVEHHQDFUXFLDO FRPSRQHQW RI &KLQD·V EURDGHU LQWHJUDWLRQ LQWR WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ WKDW KDV DOVRLQFOXGHGLQZDUGDQGRXWZDUGGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWDQDO\]HGLQ
Pearson WLRQHPSKDVL]LQJFKDQJHVPDGHLQWKHOHDGXSWRDQGÀQDODJUHHPHQWIRU&KLQD·V :72HQWU\LQODWH7KHLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGSROLWLFDOIRXQGDWLRQVIRUWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKHVWDWH·VWUDGHSROLF\²LQHVVHQFHWKHGRPHVWLFSROLWLFVRIWUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ²DUHGLVFXVVHGLQWKHVHFRQGVHFWLRQ7KHWKLUGVHFWLRQOD\VRXWWKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO SUHVVXUHV IRU OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG H[SORUHV KRZ WKHVH LQWHUDFW ZLWK LQWHUQDOFDXVHV)LQDOO\WKHODVWVHFWLRQRIWKHFKDSWHUVSHFXODWHVRQWKHHYROXWLRQ RI&KLQD·VSRVW:72WUDGHSDWWHUQDVLWFRQFHUQVWKUHHVLJQLÀFDQWLVVXHVUDLVHGE\ WKHHGLWRUVRIWKLVYROXPHFRQVWLWXHQWVFRPSHQVDWLRQDQGFRPPLWPHQW %HIRUHPRYLQJRQVHYHUDOREVHUYDWLRQVFDQEHRIIHUHGWKDWKHOSIUDPH&KLQD·V trade OLEHUDOL]DWLRQVWDWLVWLFDOO\KLVWRULFDOO\DQGFRPSDUDWLYHO\1XPHURXVDJJUHJDWH VWDWLVWLFV WHOO RI WKH EUHDWKWDNLQJ FKDQJH LQ &KLQD·V WUDGH V\VWHP IURP DQ DOPRVWWRWDOO\FORVHGHFRQRP\LQWKHPLGVWRDWWKHHQGRIWKHWKLUG ODUJHVW WUDGLQJ QDWLRQ LQ WKH ZRUOG EHKLQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG *HUPDQ\ - =KDQJ ,QGROODUWHUPV&KLQD·VWRWDOWUDGHURVHIURPDSSUR[LPDWHO\86 ELOOLRQDWWKHLQLWLDWLRQRIWKH´RSHQµSROLF\LQWR86WULOOLRQLQ YDVWO\ RXWVWULSSLQJ WKH UDWH RI JURZWK LQ ZRUOG WUDGH - =KDQJ 'XULQJ WKHV&KLQD·VVKDUHRIWKHZRUOGH[SRUWPDUNHWJUHZE\URXJKO\SHUFHQW SHU\HDUFRQWUDVWLQJZLWK-DSDQ·VGHFOLQHRISHUFHQWSHU\HDU/DUG\ :KHUHDVSULRUWRRIÀFLDO35&HVWLPDWHVVHW&KLQD·VWUDGHYROXPHDVD SHUFHQWDJHRI*'3DWQRWPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWE\H[SRUWVDORQHJRRGVDQG VHUYLFHV KDGUHDFKHGSHUFHQWRI*'3 /RRNLQJEH\RQGDJJUHJDWHÀJXUHVLWLVLQVWUXFWLYHWRGUDZVRPHEURDGFRPSDULVRQV WR -DSDQ·V PRUH OLPLWHG WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ SULRU WR :KHUHDV &KLQD IDLOHG WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ WKH UDSLG JURZWK RI ZRUOG WUDGH DIWHU:RUOG:DU II-DSDQHQWHUHGWKH*HQHUDO$JUHHPHQWRQ7DULIIVDQG7UDGH*$77 LQ -DSDQ·VDFFHVVLRQRFFXUUHGLQDVXEVWDQWLDOO\GLIIHUHQWGRPHVWLFDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQWWKDQ&KLQDIDFHGLQWKHV-DSDQ·V*$77LQWHJUDWLRQRFFXUUHGDW DWLPHRIJOREDOSRVWZDULQVHFXULW\DERXWWKHGDPDJLQJQDWLRQDOLPSDFWRIOLEHUDO WUDGH5HÁ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ÀFDQWO\GHHSHUFXWVWKDQKDG EHHQUHTXLUHGRI-DSDQDQGDGGUHVVHVP\ULDGIRUPVRIWUDGHSURWHFWLRQLVP7KH $VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLVRIPRUHIXOO\FDWDSXOWHG&KLQDLQWRWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\ DQGVWUHQJWKHQHGLQWHJUDWLRQLVWLGHRORJ\DPRQJ&KLQD·VUHIRUPHUVLQFRQWUDVWWR RWKHU$VLDQQDWLRQVVXFKDV0DOD\VLD ,QWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWUDGH&KLQDKDVKDGVXEVWDQWLDOVXFFHVVLQPRYLQJXSWKH YDOXHFKDLQIURPEHLQJDODERULQWHQVLYHSURFHVVRURIORZYDOXHDGGHGSURGXFWV VWDUWLQJ LQ WKH PLGV WR EHLQJ LQFUHDVLQJO\ D SURGXFHU RI PDQXIDFWXUHG
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization JRRGVVXFKDVWHOHYLVLRQV DQGIXUWKHUWREHFRPHDPHPEHURIHOHFWURQLFVSURGXFWLRQ QHWZRUNV VXFK DV QRWHERRN FRPSXWHUV ,Q VKRUW &KLQD EHJDQ H[SRUWLQJ DFFRUGLQJ WR LWV FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH DQG DV LWV FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH KDV EHJXQ WR PLJUDWH WR KLJKHU YDOXHDGGHG JRRGV WUDGH ÁRZV KDYH IROORZHG 7KLVKDVRFFXUUHGLQ&KLQDWKLUW\\HDUVDIWHU-DSDQHQJDJHGLQWKHVDPHSURFHVV .RPL\DDQG,WRK² 7LPLQJDQGFRQWH[WKDYHEHHQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUVLQ&KLQD·V´ODWHWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQµ&KLQD·VVXFFHVVKDVEHHQJUHDWO\LQÁXHQFHGE\DIDYRUDEOHSRVLWLRQLQWKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\WKHUHZDVVWURQJGHPDQGHVSHFLDOO\LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV IRUORZFRVWODERULQWHQVLYHJRRGVQRWDEO\WH[WLOHVDQGDSSDUHO WKDWKDYHEHHQ WKHFRUHRI&KLQD·VFRPSDUDWLYHDGYDQWDJH&KLQDKDVEHHQSRVLWLRQHGWRGLVSODFH SURGXFWLRQ RI H[SRUWV IURP RWKHU GHYHORSLQJ QDWLRQV SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ 6RXWKHDVW $VLD 0RUHRYHU WUDGH KDV EHQHÀWHG IURP WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ WKDW ZDV XQOHDVKHG WKURXJK WKH UDGLFDO UHRUJDQL]DWLRQ RI GRPHVWLF SURGXFWLRQ ² HVSHFLDOO\ UHIRUPV WKDWUHOHDVHGODERUIURPWKHODQG²WKDWZDVDWWKHKHDUWRI&KLQD·VGRPHVWLFHFRQRPLFUHIRUPV 7KHUHKDYHEHHQFOHDUGLVDGYDQWDJHVWRODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWUDGHKRZHYHU &KLQDZDVKHPPHGLQWRDOLEHUDOVWUDWHJ\LILWZDVWRXVHWUDGHDVDVLJQLÀFDQWWRRO IRUJURZWKWKHUHZDVQRDOWHUQDWLYHWRDFFHSWLQJWKHHUD·VHVWDEOLVKHGLQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGHUXOHV7KLVGLVDGYDQWDJHSOD\HGRXWFRQFUHWHO\LQ&KLQD·V:72DJUHHPHQW LQZKLFKLWIRUPDOO\FRQFHGHGPDQ\SRWHQWLDO´&KLQHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVµWRLWVWUDGH V\VWHP0RUHRYHUWKHIDFWWKDW&KLQDZDVQRWDIRXQGLQJPHPEHURIWKH:72 PHDQWWKDWWKHEDUIRU&KLQD·VHQWU\ZDVJUHDWO\UDLVHGDQGUHTXLUHPHQWVIRULWV DGPLVVLRQZHUHPXFKPRUHVWULQJHQWWKDQIRUDQ\FRXQWU\EHIRUH,QWHUHVWLQJO\ WKHQHJDWLYHH[DPSOHWKDWPRVWSUHVVHG86WUDGHQHJRWLDWRUVWRH[WUDFWVWULQJHQW FRQGLWLRQVIURP&KLQDZDV-DSDQ 7KLVEURDGFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRI&KLQD·VWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDVUDSLGDQGGHHS PXVW EH WHPSHUHG LQ WZR VHQVHV )LUVW DOWKRXJK LQ FRPSDUDWLYH WHUPV &KLQD·V WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZDV TXLFN DQG WRSGRZQ WKLV VKRXOG QRW VXJJHVW WKDW WKH &KLQHVHVWDWHFDUULHGRXWD´ELJEDQJµWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRUWKDWLWEHJDQZLWKD PDVWHUSODQ,QDPDQQHUTXLWHFRQVLVWHQWZLWK&KLQD·VRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFUHIRUP WUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWLQSLHFHPHDOLQFUHPHQWDOIDVKLRQ1DXJKWRQ 7KHWUDGLWLRQDOPRGHRULJLQDWLQJZLWK0DRRIH[SHULPHQWLQJZLWKDQLGHD RU SROLF\ LQ D JHRJUDSKLFDOO\ RU VHFWRUDOO\ OLPLWHG DUHD ZDV IROORZHG LQ WUDGH 2EVHUYHUVZLWQHVVLQJWKHSURFHVVRIWUDGHUHIRUPDWÀUVWKDQGZHUHRIWHQNHHQO\ DZDUHRILWVLQFUHPHQWDOLVP,WLVRQO\LQKLQGVLJKWWKDWWKHUDSLGLW\RIVFRSHKDV EHFRPHPRUHDSSDUHQW 6HFRQGWKHUHPXVWEHUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHOLPLWVWROLEHUDOL]DWLRQDV&KLQDEHJDQ LWV PHPEHUVKLS LQ :72 VXEVWDQWLDO WUDGH EDUULHUV DQG GLVWULEXWLYH SUREOHPV UHPDLQHG &RQFHUQ WKDW LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI &KLQD·V :72 FRPPLWPHQWV ZRXOG SURFHHGPRUHVORZO\WKDQFDOOHGIRULQWKHDJUHHGXSRQWLPHWDEOHVLVGLVFXVVHG EHORZ ,W LV DOVR LPSRUWDQW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKDW WKH LPSDFW RI WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ WKXV IDU KDV EHHQ VNHZHG WRZDUG FHUWDLQ VHFWRUV DQG UHJLRQV /LEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI WUDGH SROLF\ KDV EHHQ PRVW SURQRXQFHG LQ WKH H[SRUW VHFWRU DV RSSRVHG WR WKH LPSRUWVHFWRU 0RUHRYHUIRUHLJQLQYHVWHGHQWHUSULVHV),(V DQGH[SRUWSURFHVV-
Pearson LQJÀUPVKDYHFRQGXFWHGWKHEXONRIWUDGH,QGHHGE\H[SRUWVIURP&KLQD·V ),(VDFFRXQWHGIRUDERXWKDOIRIWRWDOH[SRUWVZKHUHDVWKHVHÀUPVSURGXFHGRQO\ RQHHLJKWKRIDOOPDQXIDFWXULQJRXWSXW/DUG\² 'RPHVWLFÀUPVWKDW SURGXFHH[SRUWVRIWHQUHO\RQGXW\IUHHLPSRUWHGPDWHULDOVOLPLWLQJWKHGHPDQG IRULQSXWVIURPGRPHVWLFÀUPV/RFDOYDOXHDGGHGDYHUDJHVSHUFHQWEXWRIWHQ LVDVORZDVSHUFHQW0RUHRYHU),(VDORQHKDYHEHHQUHVSRQVLEOHIRUPRUH WKDQKDOIRIDOO&KLQHVHLPSRUWVVLQFH7KXVWKHLPSDFWRIWKHJURZWKLQWUDGH DQGLWVSUHVXPHGEHQHÀWV KDVQRWEHHQVSUHDGHYHQO\WKURXJKRXWWKHGRPHVWLF HFRQRP\:KLOHLWLVQRWDFFXUDWHWRWHUP&KLQD·VWUDGHSDWWHUQDV´HQFODYHWUDGHµ WKHXQHYHQGLVWULEXWLRQFDQQRWEHLJQRUHG
The content of China’s trade liberalization :KDWVSHFLÀFDOO\KDYH&KLQD·VUHIRUPHUVGRQHWROLEHUDOL]HWUDGH"&KDQJHVIDOO LQWR WZR EURDG FDWHJRULHV WUDGH SROLF\ LQVWUXPHQWV GLVFXVVHG LQ WKLV VHFWLRQ DQGSROLWLFDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOEDVHVRIWUDGHGLVFXVVHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ ,QERWKFDWHJRULHV&KLQD·VOLEHUDOL]LQJSDWWHUQVHQKDQFHLWVVLPLODULWLHVWRRWKHU DGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOFRXQWULHVDQGDUHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHPDUNHUVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ SUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHLQWKHLQWURGXFWRU\FKDSWHURIWKLVYROXPH ,WLVWHPSWLQJWRVHH:72DVWKHZDWHUVKHGIRUWKHUHIRUPRI&KLQD·VH[WHUQDOHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\DQGLQPDQ\ZD\VWKLVLVDFFXUDWH+RZHYHUWKH&KLQHVH JRYHUQPHQWFDUULHGRXWVXEVWDQWLDOUHIRUPWRLWVWUDGHV\VWHPSULRUWR:72HQWU\ 0DQ\ UHIRUPV HVSHFLDOO\ WKRVH PDGH DIWHU ZHUH SDUW RI D QHJRWLDWLQJ VWUDWHJ\WRPDNH&KLQDVHHPPRUHDWWUDFWLYHWR:72PHPEHUQDWLRQV(TXDOO\ LPSRUWDQWLVWKHIDFWWKDWPXFKRIWKHLPSHWXVIRUWKHVHFKDQJHVZDVGRPHVWLFDQG DQHIIRUWWRVWUHQJWKHQWKHRYHUDOOHFRQRP\$VVXFK&KLQD·V:72FRPPLWPHQWV SDUWLFXODUO\LQWKHDUHDRIWUDGHFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDVSDUWRIDORQJHUHYROXWLRQRI WUDGHSRVLWLYHFKDQJHVWKDWEHJDQLQHDUQHVWLQ7KLVVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHVWKH PRVWVLJQLÀFDQWWUDGHUHODWHGSROLF\FKDQJHVDQGFRPPLWPHQWVOHDGLQJXSWRDQG SXUVXDQWWR&KLQD·VYHU\FRPSOH[:72DFFHVVLRQ ,QWKH0DRLVWHUDLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDGHZDVFDUULHGRXWDFFRUGLQJWRDV\VWHPRI GLUHFWPDWHULDOSODQQLQJDGPLQLVWHUHGE\EXUHDXFUDWLFDXWKRULWLHV7HQWRVL[WHHQ IRUHLJQWUDGHFRUSRUDWLRQV)7&V GRPLQDWHGWUDGHHDFKDWWDFKHGWRDSURGXFWLRQ PLQLVWU\DQGHDFKRIZKLFKKHOGHIIHFWLYHPRQRSROLHVLQLWVVSHFLÀHGVHFWRU7KH 6WDWH 3ODQQLQJ &RPPLVVLRQ GHWHUPLQHG TXDQWLWLHV RI LPSRUWV QHHGHG WR ÀOO WKH SURMHFWHGJDSEHWZHHQGRPHVWLFVXSSO\DQGGHPDQGIRUKLJKSULRULW\JRRGVVXFK DVHTXLSPHQWDQGLQGXVWULDOUDZPDWHULDOV([SRUWVZHUHVHWDWWKHOHYHOQHHGHGWR SD\IRUSODQQHGLPSRUWVZKLOHWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIH[SRUWVZDVGHWHUPLQHGODUJHO\ E\DQ\XQH[SHFWHGRYHUSURGXFWLRQRIJRRGV,QVKRUWSK\VLFDOTXDQWLWLHVVHWE\ SODQQHUVDQGQRWUHODWLYHSULFHVGHWHUPLQHGWKHYROXPHDQGFRPSRVLWLRQRIWUDGH 7KLVV\VWHPZDVFULWLFL]HGLQWKH:HVWDVVTXHOFKLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWVXSSO\ DQGGHPDQGDQGFUHDWLQJHQRUPRXVLQHIÀFLHQFLHV:RUOG%DQN 7KH SROLWLFDO GHFLVLRQ LQ WR ´RSHQ WR WKH RXWVLGH ZRUOGµ OHG WKH 35& JRYHUQPHQWWREHJLQUHSODFLQJPDWHULDOVEDVHGSODQQLQJZLWKLQGLUHFWSULFHEDVHG WRROVWRPDQDJHWUDGHÁRZV7KHÀUVWWUDGHUHIRUPVRIWKHHDUO\VHVWDEOLVKHG
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization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² DV &KLQD IRFXVHG RQ :72 HQWU\ $V RIVRRQDIWHUWKHWDULIIV\VWHPZDVLQWURGXFHGWKHDYHUDJHVWDWXWRU\WDULII UDWHZDVKLJKSHUFHQW%\²DQGWKXVEHIRUH&KLQDHQWHUHG:72²WKLV UDWH ZDV RQO\ SHUFHQW UHGXFHG WR RQHTXDUWHU RI WKH RULJLQDO OHYHO )URP D FRPSDUDWLYHSHUVSHFWLYH&KLQD·VWDULIIOHYHOZDVDERXWKDOIWKDWRI,QGLD DQGRQDSDUZLWKWKHUDWHVRI0H[LFRDQG%UD]LO/DUG\ %\WKHEHJLQQLQJRIRYHUDOODYHUDJHWDULIIVKDGGHFOLQHGIURPSHUFHQWWRSHUFHQW DQG ZLWK D IHZ H[FHSWLRQV DOO LPSRUWHG JRRGV UHDFKHG WKHLU ÀQDO ERXQG GXW\ UDWHRQ-DQXDU\0RUHRYHUDVLQGLFDWHGSUHYLRXVO\UDZPDWHULDOVDQG LQWHUPHGLDWHJRRGVXVHGWRDVVHPEOHSURGXFWVWKDWZHUHVXEVHTXHQWO\H[SRUWHG DQG FDSLWDO JRRGV XVHG LQ ),(V ZHUH RIWHQ H[HPSW IURP any VWDWXWRU\ WDULIIV SULYLOHJLQJWKHVHLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\RULHQWHGVHFWRUVRIWKHHFRQRP\ 1RQWDULIIEDUULHUVWRLPSRUWV17%V ²SDUWLFXODUO\TXRWDVOLFHQVHVUHJLVWUDWLRQUHTXLUHPHQWVLPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQOLVWVUHVWULFWHGWUDGLQJULJKWVVWDWHWUDGLQJ DQGWHQGHULQJUHTXLUHPHQWV²UHPDLQHGDELJJHUKLQGUDQFHWRWUDGH/HVVWUDQVSDUHQWWKDQWDULIIVWKHVHEDUULHUVDUHPRUHGLIÀFXOWWRWUDFN1HYHUWKHOHVVRYHUWKH FRXUVHRIWKHVDQGLQSDUWDUHVXOWRIPDUNHWDFFHVVDJUHHPHQWVZLWK WKH86JRYHUQPHQWWKHQXPEHURIWDULIIOLQHVVXEMHFWWRTXRWDVDQGOLFHQVHVIHOO GUDPDWLFDOO\%\17%VFRYHUHGOHVVWKDQSHUFHQWRIWRWDOWDULIIOLQHVDQG WKHVKDUHRILPSRUWHGJRRGVIRUZKLFKWUDGLQJULJKWVUHVWULFWHGWUDGHGHFOLQHGIURP SHUFHQWLQWRSHUFHQWLQ,DQFKRYLFKLQDDQG0DUWLQ $VZLWKLPSRUWV&KLQD·VH[SRUWUHJLPHZDVVXEVWDQWLDOO\OLEHUDOL]HGRYHUWKH FRXUVHRIWKHVDQGVLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKWKHHQGRISK\VLFDOSODQQLQJDQG HYROXWLRQWRÀUVWDQH[SDQVLYHDQGODWHUPXFKFRQWUDFWHGV\VWHPRIH[SRUWTXRWDV DQGOLFHQVHV$OVRLPSRUWDQWZDVWKHSDVVLQJIURPIDYRURIWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDW H[SRUWVZHUHLPSRUWDQWVROHO\IRUHDUQLQJIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\7KHFOHDUHVWPHDVXUH RIH[SRUWUHJLPHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZDVWKHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHQXPEHURIFRPPRGLWLHV VXEMHFWWRH[SRUWOLFHQVLQJDQGTXRWDVIURPDSHDNRILQWRÀIW\SURGXFWV LQ /DUG\ ² 6HYHUDO FRUROODU\ SROLF\ UHIRUPV VXSSRUWHG WKH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIWKHH[SRUWUHJLPH.H\DPRQJWKHPZHUHWKHGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQRI H[SRUWDXWKRULW\GLVFXVVHGEHORZ DQGUHIRUPRIWKHFXUUHQF\H[FKDQJHV\VWHP 'HYDOXDWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQF\UHGXFHGWKHGLIIHUHQWLDOEHWZHHQGRPHVWLFDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOSULFHVWKHUHE\PDNLQJH[SRUWLQJPRUHDWWUDFWLYHWRGRPHVWLFSURGXFHUV $GGLWLRQDO IRUHLJQ FXUUHQF\ UHIRUPV DOORZHG H[SRUWLQJ ÀUPV WR UHWDLQ D VKDUH RIWKHLUIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHUHYHQXHV)LQDOO\WD[SROLF\ZDVFKDQJHGWRUHEDWHD SRUWLRQRIWKHYDOXHDGGHGWD[HVSDLGE\H[SRUWHUVDQGWRUHEDWHLPSRUWWDULIIV IRUJRRGVXVHGLQH[SRUWSURFHVVLQJ7KHVHWD[LQFHQWLYHVKDYHKHOSHGSURPRWH
Pearson &KLQD·VLQWHJUDWLRQLQWRJOREDOSURGXFWLRQQHWZRUNVQRWDEO\IRUFRPSXWHUVDQG FRPSXWHUFRPSRQHQWV$VDUHVXOWRI&KLQD·V:72HQWU\JRYHUQPHQWEXGJHWDU\ FRQVLGHUDWLRQVDQGSUHVVXUHIURPIRUHLJQJRYHUQPHQWVWKHVHUHEDWHVZHUHVFDOHG EDFNLQ0XLDQG/HH $PDMRUWKUXVWRI&KLQD·V:72FRPPLWPHQWVDVWKH\UHODWHWRWUDGHKDVEHHQ WR PRYH &KLQD HYHQ IXUWKHU WRZDUG D WDULIIEDVHG WUDGH UHJLPH E\ SKDVLQJ RXW OLFHQVHVTXRWDVDQGRWKHUQRQWDULIITXDQWLWDWLYHUHVWULFWLRQVE\$VQRWHG WDULIIVRQDOOSURGXFWVZHUHUHGXFHGIXUWKHUIURPOHYHOVWRUDWHVZHOOEHORZ WKRVHRI,QGLDDQG,QGRQHVLDIRUH[DPSOH0RUHRYHU&KLQDDJUHHGWRELQGall WDULIIVDWWKHQHZORZUDWHVDVWKH\ZHUHSKDVHGLQVRPHWKLQJYHU\IHZFRXQWULHV KDYHGRQH7UDGLQJULJKWV²WKHOHJDOULJKWJUDQWHGWRÀUPVWRPDNHLQGHSHQGHQW H[SRUWDQGLPSRUWGHFLVLRQV²ZHUHH[WHQGHGWRDOOGRPHVWLFÀUPVE\WKRXJK VRPH VWDWH WUDGLQJ ZDV DOORZHG WR UHPDLQ SDUWLFXODUO\ IRU DJULFXOWXUDO DQG RLO SHWUROHXPSURGXFWV$UHYLVHG)RUHLJQ7UDGH/DZSDVVHGLQ$SULOH[WHQGHG WUDGLQJULJKWVIRUERWKLPSRUWVDQGH[SRUWVWRLQGLYLGXDOVDQGVPDOOÀUPVIXUWKHU UHPRYLQJWUDGHIURPJRYHUQPHQWFRQWURO=KDR 7KLVGUDPDWLFH[SDQVLRQRI WUDGLQJULJKWVJUHDWO\H[SDQGHGGRPHVWLFÀUPV·DFFHVVWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV 7KHFRPPLWPHQWVLQDJULFXOWXUHDQGLQWH[WLOHVDQGDSSDUHOPHULWVSHFLÀFFRPPHQW$JULFXOWXUDOLPSRUWVDUHH[WUHPHO\VHQVLWLYHLQ&KLQDEHFDXVHRIZRUULHV ERWKDERXWIRRGVHFXULW\DQGDERXWUXUDOLQVWDELOLW\7KHGHSWKRI&KLQD·V:72 FRPPLWPHQWVRQDJULFXOWXUHLVTXLWHVXUSULVLQJJLYHQWKLVFRQWH[W6RPHDQDO\VWV DUJXH WKDW WKH EDVHOLQH FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ DJULFXOWXUH LV PRYLQJ DJDLQVW &KLQD,DQFKRYLFKLQDDQG0DUWLQVHHDOVR5RVHQet al 7KHUHIRUH LQFUHDVHG WUDGH LQ DJULFXOWXUDO FRPPRGLWLHV ² HQFRXUDJHG E\ ORZHU WDULIIV RQ DJULFXOWXUDOLPSRUWV²PDNHVVHQVHHFRQRPLFDOO\LI&KLQDLVWRDYRLGWKHKLJKO\ SURWHFWLRQLVWLQHIÀFLHQWDQGKLJKFRVWPRGHRIDJULFXOWXUHDVIRXQGLQ-DSDQ7R WKLV HQG &KLQD KDV DJUHHG WR ELQGLQJ DJULFXOWXUDO WDULIIV WKDW DUH YHU\ ORZ E\ (DVW$VLDQ VWDQGDUGV (YHQ PRUH LPSRUWDQW LV &KLQD·V DGRSWLRQ RI D WDULII UDWH TXRWD 754 V\VWHP XQGHU ZKLFK D FHUWDLQ PLQLPXP YROXPH RI LPSRUWV PXVW EHVXEMHFWWRORZWDULIIUDWHV)RUPDQ\DJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWVHJZKHDWFRUQ ULFHDQGFRWWRQ WKHORZWDULIIUDWHDSSOLHVWRWKHZKROHDPRXQWWKDWKLVWRULFDOO\ KDV EHHQ LPSRUWHG /DUG\ ² VHH DOVR7DEOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ ZKLOH QRWDJUHHLQJWRORZHUGRPHVWLFDJULFXOWXUDOVXSSRUWVWRWKHOHYHOGHVLUHGE\WKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVSHUFHQW WKH35&GLGOLPLWDJJUHJDWHVXSSRUWWRDJULFXOWXUHWR SHUFHQW RI WKH YDOXH RI DJULFXOWXUDO RXWSXW SOXV IRU DQ\ LQGLYLGXDO FURS D OLPLWRISHUFHQWRIWKHYDOXHRIWKDWFURS )LQDOO\&KLQDDJUHHGWRHOLPLQDWH DOO RI LWV VXEVWDQWLDO DJULFXOWXUDO H[SRUW VXEVLGLHV XSRQ DFFHVVLRQ ² DQ H[WUHPH FRPPLWPHQWSDUWLFXODUO\FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHIDLOXUHRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRU(8WR HOLPLQDWHVXFKVXEVLGLHV/DUG\² &KLQDKDVQRWLPSOHPHQWHGWKHVH FRPPLWPHQWV WR WKH FRPSOHWH VDWLVIDFWLRQ RI IRUHLJQ JUDLQ H[SRUWHUV \HW KDV PRYHGVWHDGLO\LQWKDWGLUHFWLRQ 7KHNHHQVHQVLWLYLW\LQWKHDUHDRIDJULFXOWXUHLVDUHVXOWRISHUFHLYHGWKUHDWVWR &KLQHVHSURGXFHUVIURPIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQ,QFRQWUDVWWKHLVVXHRIWH[WLOHVDQG DSSDUHOLVLPSRUWDQWEHFDXVHLWFRQFHUQV&KLQD·VPRVWLPSRUWDQWH[SRUWPDUNHW 7H[WLOHVDQGDSSDUHOH[SRUWVIURP&KLQDKDYHORQJEHHQUHVWULFWHGE\TXRWDVVHW
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization E\WKHPXOWLODWHUDO0XOWLÀEHU$UUDQJHPHQW0)$ WRSUHYHQWDQ\RQHFRXQWU\·V GRPLQDQFH$VSHUKDSVWKHFOHDUHVWH[DPSOHRIDELJEDQJHIIRUWDWJOREDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQPXOWLODWHUDOWUDGHQHJRWLDWLRQVFRQFOXGHGSULRUWR&KLQD·V:72HQWU\ DJUHHGWRHQGWKH0)$TXRWDV\VWHPDVRI-DQXDU\7KLVJDYHDKXJHERRVW WRDQDOUHDG\VWURQJ&KLQHVHH[SRUWLQGXVWU\GHVSLWHWKHRSWLRQSURYLGHGLPSRUWHUV WR HUHFW VSHFLDO WH[WLOH VDIHJXDUGV RQ &KLQD XQWLO WKH HQG RI &KLQD·V H[SRUWVLQWH[WLOHDQGDSSDUHOZHUHH[SHFWHGWRVXUJHLQWKHQHDUWHUPDVVRRQDV WKH0)$ZDVOLIWHGRQHPRGHOSUHGLFWVWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRI:72DFFHVVLRQZLOO EHWRUDLVH&KLQD·VVKDUHRIH[SRUWVLQDSSDUHOE\SHUFHQWLQFUHDVLQJ&KLQD·V VKDUHRIZRUOGDSSDUHOH[SRUWVWRRYHUSHUFHQWE\XSIURPSHUFHQW LQ7KHWH[WLOHDQGDSSDUHOH[DPSOHLVWRXWHGDVDFOHDUH[DPSOHRIKRZ &KLQHVHLQGXVWU\FDQJDLQIURPWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ :KLOH&KLQD·VFRPPLWPHQWWRWDULIIUHGXFWLRQVDQGRWKHUOLEHUDOL]LQJPHDVXUHV VXEVHTXHQWWR:72HQWU\KDVEHHQH[FHOOHQWFRQFHUQVDERXWQRQWDULIIEDUULHUV UHPDLQ&KLQHVHLQGXVWULHVKDYHEHHQTXLWHDGHSWDWÀQGLQJQHZZD\VWRKLQGHU IRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQ17%VUHPDLQLQVHYHUDOIRUPVPRVWQRWDEO\WKHXVHRIVWDQGDUGVFHUWLÀFDWLRQDQGSURGXFWW\SHWHVWLQJ7RROVVXFKDVUHTXLULQJWHVWLQJWRPHHW &KLQHVHVWDQGDUGVIRUKHDOWKDQGVDIHW\KDYHEHHQXVHGLQLQFUHDVLQJQXPEHUV 7KHVHDUHEDUULHUVQRWMXVWEHFDXVHWKH\SURYLGHMXVWLÀ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· DQWLGXPSLQJ DFWLRQV SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG(8FRXQWULHV86²&KLQD%XVLQHVV&RXQFLO 17%VSDUWLFXODUO\WKH XVHRIGXPSLQJFKDUJHVDUHOLNHO\WREHWKHIRFXVRIPRVWWUDGHUHODWHGGLVSXWHV LQYROYLQJ&KLQDLQWKHQHDUIXWXUH 7KLVEDUHERQHVUHQGLWLRQRI&KLQD·VWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQGLFDWHVKRZPXFK &KLQDKDVDFFRPSOLVKHGVLQFHWKHHDUO\V8QGRXEWHGO\WKHUHZLOOFRQWLQXH WREHGLIÀFXOW\LPSOHPHQWLQJLWV:72FRPPLWPHQWV\HWWKDWVKRXOGQRWGLPLQLVK UHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHLUGHSWK(TXDOO\QRWHZRUWK\WRWKHFKDQJHVLQWUDGHSROLF\DUH WKHLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGSROLWLFDOFKDQJHVWKDWDFFRPSDQLHGWKHP7KHVHFKDQJHVDUH WKHVXEMHFWRIWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ
The landscape evolves: institutional and political foundations of liberalization $ FHQWUDO WKHPH RI WKLV YROXPH LV WKH H[SORUDWLRQ RI LQVWLWXWLRQDO DQG SROLWLFDO EDVHVIRUWKHOLEHUDOL]LQJSROLWLFDOHFRQRPLHVRI&KLQDDQG-DSDQ:KDWZHFDQ FRQFOXGHDERXWLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGSROLWLFDOFDXVHVRI&KLQHVHWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LVIURPDFRPSDUDWLYHSRLQWRIYLHZERWKVXUSULVLQJDQGXQVXUSULVLQJ:KDWLV
Pearson VXUSULVLQJDVLOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHSUHYLRXVGHVFULSWLRQRIWUDGHSROLF\FKDQJHVLV WKHSDFHDQGGHJUHHRILQVWLWXWLRQDODQGSROLWLFDOFKDQJHERWKLQJRYHUQPHQWDQG LQ WKH HFRQRP\ LWVHOI :KDW LV XQVXUSULVLQJ EXW SHUKDSV PRUH LQWHUHVWLQJ LV WKDWWKHGRPHVWLFSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\RI&KLQHVHIRUHLJQWUDGHKDVFRPHWRORRN LQFUHDVLQJO\OLNHWKDWRIDGYDQFHGLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV7KHUHKDVEHHQDVWURQJ WUHQG WRZDUG SOXUDOL]DWLRQ RI GRPHVWLF LQÁXHQFHV RQ WUDGH SROLF\ 3OXUDOL]DWLRQ DSSHDUVLQWZRIRUPV7KHÀUVWLVWKHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHQXPEHUDQGFKDUDFWHURI institutionalRUJDQVWKDWHQJDJHLQWUDGHLQ&KLQD6HFRQGLVpoliticalSOXUDOL]DWLRQ DOEHLWZLWKLQWKHVWDWHDFWRUVZKRZHUHRULJLQDOO\TXLWHPDUJLQDOWRWUDGHSROLF\ PDNLQJKDYHJDLQHGDQLQÁXHQWLDODQGKLJKO\SROLWLFL]HGUROH7KXVDOWKRXJKZH FDQQRWFODLPFRQYHUJHQFH&KLQD·VWUDGHSROLWLFVQRZORRNPXFKPRUHIDPLOLDUWR RXWVLGHREVHUYHUV Institutional foundations of trade liberalization 7KHXVXDOFDVWRILQVWLWXWLRQDOVXVSHFWVKDVEHHQGHHSO\LQYROYHGLQ&KLQD·VWUDGH SROLF\OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ)URPWKHVXQWLOWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWDORUJDQ UHVSRQVLEOHIRUWUDGH²WKH0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ7UDGHDQG(FRQRPLF&RRSHUDWLRQ 02)7(& DQGHVSHFLDOO\LWV:72GLYLVLRQ²WRRNWKHOHDGRQWUDGHUHODWHG LVVXHV,QSDUWLFXODULWZDVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKWKH86JRYHUQPHQW DQGWKH:72:RUNLQJ3DUW\RQ&KLQD·V:72DFFHVVLRQDJUHHPHQWDQGRYHUVDZ HDUO\LPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI&KLQD·V:72FRPPLWPHQWV
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization RIWKLVSURFHVVZDVWKHJUDQWLQJRIWUDGLQJULJKWVWRDOOGRPHVWLFÀUPVZLWKLQWKUHH \HDUV RI :72 DFFHVVLRQ 7KXV WUDGHG JRRGV ZHUH LQFUHDVLQJO\ UHPRYHG IURP SODQQLQJFRQWUROVDQGHIIHFWLYHJRYHUQPHQWRYHUVLJKWDQGWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOEDVLV IRUH[WHQVLYHWUDGHE\GRPHVWLFÀUPVKDGEHHQODLG ,QVWLWXWLRQDOFKDQJHKDVDOVRRFFXUUHGLQWKHIRUPRIOHJDOL]DWLRQDQGFRGLÀFDWLRQRIUXOHV&KLQDLVLQDQHDUOLHUVWDJHWKDQ-DSDQLQLWV´MXGLFLDOL]DWLRQDWWKH EHKHVWRI:72µGHVSLWHPXFKSURJUHVV&KLQDLVLQWKHLQLWLDOVWDJHVRISURPXOJDWLRQDQGUHYLVLRQRIODZV$FRPSUHKHQVLYHGLVFXVVLRQRIWKHSURPXOJDWLRQRI ODZVLVQRWSRVVLEOHLQWKLVFKDSWHUDVWKHWRSLFLVODUJHDQGFRPSOH[+RZHYHULW LVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWDVSDUWRILWV:72DFFHVVLRQSDFNDJH&KLQDDJUHHGWR UHZULWHDORQJOLVWRIODZVDQGUHJXODWLRQVLQRUGHUWRPDNHWKHP:72FRPSOLDQW FRQWLQXLQJDSURFHVVWKDWKDGEHHQRQJRLQJVLQFHWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHHFRQRPLF UHIRUPV,QWKHUXQXSWR:72DFFHVVLRQLQODWH&KLQD·VOHJLVODWLYHDGPLQLVWUDWLYHDQGOHJDOV\VWHPVPRYHGDKHDGLQDIUHQ]\RQUHJXODWRU\FKDQJHVWKDW ZRXOGPDNHWKHVHV\VWHPV:72FRPSOLDQW$VLIWKHVFRSHRIWKHVHOHJDOFKDQJHV DORQHZHUHQRWGDXQWLQJHQRXJKWKHVHUXOHVKDYHWREHWUDQVPLWWHGGRZQZDUGWR WKHSURYLQFLDODQGORFDOOHYHOVRIJRYHUQPHQWLQFOXGLQJWRWKHORFDOMXGLFLDODQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYHV\VWHPVLQFKDUJHRIDGMXGLFDWLQJGLVSXWHV 7KH SUHVVXUH IURP WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG :72 IRU UHIRUP RI &KLQD·V OHJDO V\VWHPZDVDLPHGÀUVWDQGIRUHPRVWDWIRVWHULQJWUDQVSDUHQF\LQ&KLQD·VWUDGH V\VWHP7KLVLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHIRXQGGRPHVWLFVXSSRUW&KLQHVHHFRQRPLF UHIRUPHUVDSSHDUHGWRDJUHHWKDWFOHDUHUUXOHVJRYHUQLQJWKHHFRQRP\ZRXOGQRW RQO\ DOORZ IRU:72 FRPSOLDQFH EXW DOVR VWUHQJWKHQ WKH PDUNHW HFRQRP\ DQG UHGXFHLQFHQWLYHVIRUORFDOSURWHFWLRQDQGFRUUXSWLRQ5HIRUPHUVIXUWKHUEHFDPH DZDUHRIWKHDGYDQWDJHVRIXVLQJODZWRSURWHFW&KLQD·VLQGXVWULHVDJDLQVWSRWHQWLDOO\XQIDLUFRPSHWLWLRQIURPIRUHLJQÀUPVDVLOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHSUHYLRXVO\GLVFXVVHGPRYHWRVWUHQJWKHQLWVDQWLGXPSLQJUHJLPH 7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH OHJDO DGPLQLVWUDWLYH DQG MXGLFLDO FKDQJHV WR ZKLFK &KLQDKDVFRPPLWWHGVKRXOGQRWEHXQGHUHVWLPDWHG5DWKHUWKDQPHUHO\FKDQJLQJ &KLQD·V WUDGH UHJLPH DW WKH SRLQW RI HQWU\ DQG H[LW WKH UXOHV LQVHUW WKHPVHOYHV GHHSO\LQWRWKHZD\WKH&KLQHVHFRQGXFWJRYHUQPHQWDQGEXVLQHVVDIIDLUVLQWHUQDOO\ Domestic political foundations of trade liberalization $Q\ QDUUDWLYH RQ WKH GRPHVWLF SROLWLFV RI &KLQD·V WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ PXVW EH SXQFWXDWHGE\UHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHNH\UROHSOD\HGE\WRSOHDGHUV7KXVWKHGHFLVLRQ LQ WR ´RSHQ &KLQD WR WKH RXWVLGH ZRUOGµ ZDV QRW IRUFHG RQ &KLQD HLWKHU ELODWHUDOO\ RU PXOWLODWHUDOO\ IURP RXWVLGH UDWKHU LW UHVXOWHG IURP D OHDGHUVKLS GHFLVLRQ E\ 'HQJ ;LDRSLQJ DQG D FRKRUW RI UHIRUPHUV 7KLV GHFLVLRQ UHÁHFWHG WKHLQLWLDWLRQRIZKDWZRXOGHYROYHLQWRDJHQXLQHSDUDGLJPVKLIWDERXW&KLQD·V UROH LQ WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ LQFOXGLQJ SROLWLFDO DFFHSWDQFH WKDW &KLQD FRXOG EHQHÀWIURPWKH´REMHFWLYHµQRWFDSLWDOLVW ODZVRIFRPSDUDWLYHDGYDQWDJHDQG WKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOGLYLVLRQRIODERU3HDUVRQ² 7KHGHFLVLRQLQWR
Pearson VHHN*$77PHPEHUVKLSZDVVWURQJO\LQÁXHQFHGE\WKHQSUHPLHU=KDR=L\DQJ 0RUHRYHUWKHQHJRWLDWLQJSRVLWLRQDWWKLVWLPH²WKDWWDULIIUHGXFWLRQUDWKHUWKDQ PDUNHW DFFHVV VKRXOG EH WKH FHQWHUSLHFH RI &KLQD·V HQWUDQFH SURWRFRO ² ZDV DSSDUHQWO\LQÁXHQFHGE\'HQJ;LDRSLQJ/DWHULQ'HQJ;LDRSLQJ·VIDPRXV ´VRXWKHUQWRXUµJDYHQHZOLIHWRWKHHFRQRPLFUHIRUPSURJUDPDVDZKROHSXOOLQJ WKHSURFHVVRXWRIWKHSRVW7LDQDQPHQFRQVHUYDWLVPWKDWKDGVWDOOHGUHIRUPVLQ PDQ\ DUHDV :KLOH WKLV LQMHFWLRQ RI OLIH LQWR WKH UHIRUPV ZDV EURDGHU WKDQ WKH WUDGH DUHQD WKRVH QHJRWLDWLQJ &KLQD·V HQWU\ WR *$77 IHOW WKDW WKH\ ZHUH JLYHQ DVWURQJSRVLWLYHVLJQDOWRSURFHHGZLWKQHJRWLDWLRQV7KHÀQDOSXVKIRU:72 DGPLVVLRQFXOPLQDWHGLQHDUO\ZLWKGHFLVLRQVE\ERWK3UHVLGHQW-LDQJ=HPLQ DQG3UHPLHU=KX5RQJMLWKDWLWZDVWLPHWRFORVHWKHELODWHUDOQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV WKDW ZHUH WKH PDLQ VWXPEOLQJ EORFN WR DFFHVVLRQ DQG ZKLFK KDGGUDJJHGRXWIRUWKLUWHHQ\HDUV3HDUVRQ² 7KXVWKHOLEHUDOL]LQJ LQWHUYHQWLRQVRIUHIRUPHUVKDYHEHHQFUXFLDO
GRPHVWLF@7UDGH&RPPLVVLRQ6(7& ²EHFDPHLQYROYHGDVGLGLQGXVWULDO EXUHDXVDQGPLQLVWULHVZLWKVWURQJLQWHUHVWVLQSDUWLFXODUDUHDV/RFDOLQGXVWULHV DQGJRYHUQPHQWVDOVREHFDPHPRUHDFWLYHRYHUWLPHSURYLGLQJVRPHRIWKHPRVW GHWDLOHGDQDO\VHVRIWKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRI:72DFFHVVLRQRQWKHLUORFDOHFRQRPLHV6LPSO\SXWWUDGHSROLWLFVEHFDPHPRUHSRURXVWREXUHDXFUDWLFDFWRUVZKR SUHYLRXVO\KDGEHHQODUJHO\H[FOXGHGIURPWKHIRUHLJQWUDGHSROLF\SURFHVV$Q LQWHUHVWLQJSDUDOOHOEHWZHHQSROLWLFRLQVWLWXWLRQDOUROHVRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG WKH35&FDQEHGUDZQLQERWKV\VWHPVWUDGHQHJRWLDWRUVVSHQGWKHOLRQ·VVKDUH RI WKHLU WLPH PHHWLQJ ZLWK GRPHVWLF FRQVWLWXHQWV UDWKHU WKDQ ZLWK WKHLU IRUHLJQ LQWHUORFXWRUV
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization 7KHVH LQWHUHVWV HQJDJHG LQ D &KLQHVH YHUVLRQ RI LQWUDVWDWH ´OREE\LQJµ LQ RUGHU WR LQÁ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withinWKHVWDWH²PLQLVWULHVEXUHDXVDQGVWDWH RZQHGHQWHUSULVHV²QRWWKHSULYDWHEXVLQHVVHVZLWKZKRP8QLWHG6WDWHV7UDGH 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH8675 RIÀFLDOVVSHQGVRPXFKRIWKHLUWLPH0RUHRYHUGHVSLWH WKHULVHRISOXUDOYRLFHVZKLFKSXWQHJDWLYHSUHVVXUHRQQHJRWLDWRUVWKHGHDOWKDW ZDVVLJQHGZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGZLWKWKH:72PHPEHUQDWLRQVGLGQRW EURDGO\VSHDNLQJUHÁHFWWKHLUSUHVVXUH&KLQHVHQHJRWLDWRUVGLGQRWZLQVSHFLDO GHDOVIRUDQLQGXVWU\LQWKHZD\WKDWIRUH[DPSOH(XURSHDQLQVXUHUVZHUHJLYHQ VSHFLDOWUHDWPHQWLQWKH(8²&KLQDELODWHUDODJUHHPHQW7RWKHH[WHQWWKDWWKH35& DUJXHG ODWH LQ WKH QHJRWLDWLRQV IRU VSHFLDO SURWHFWLRQV IRU &KLQHVH DJULFXOWXUH WKLV ZDV QRW VR PXFK D UHVXOW RI VSHFLDO LQWHUHVW SUHVVXUH IURP WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI $JULFXOWXUHDVDSRVLWLRQGHYHORSHGDWWKHFHQWUDOOHYHODQGFRQVLGHUHGFUXFLDOIRU WKHVWDWHRIWKHZKROHHFRQRP\,QVKRUWFRQWURORYHUWKHÀQDOGHDOZDVDVVHUWHG IURPWKHWRSDW%HLMLQJ:KLOHWKLVFLUFXPQDYLJDWLRQRIWKHEXUHDXFUDWLFDFWRUV PD\KDYHIDFLOLWDWHGWKHIRUPXODWLRQRIDÀQDOSDFNDJHE\EUHDNLQJWKHVWDOHPDWH LQQHJRWLDWLRQVLWDOVREHFDPHDIDFWRULQEXUHDXFUDWLFLQWUDQVLJHQFHLQLQGXVWU\ FRPSOLDQFHZLWK&KLQD·V:72FRPPLWPHQWV 'HEDWHRYHUH[DFWO\KRZmuch&KLQDVKRXOGLQWHJUDWHWRWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\ ZDV QRW UHVROYHG E\ WKH SURQRXQFHPHQWV RI 'HQJ DQG RWKHU UHIRUPHUV RU E\ DFFHVVLRQ LQGHHG DUJXPHQWV RYHU WKH EHQHÀWV RI HFRQRPLF OLEHUDOLVP YHUVXV PHUFDQWLOLVP FRQWLQXH WRGD\$V H[SHFWHG PRUHRYHU SURWHFWLRQLVW YRLFHV KDYH FRQWLQXHG DIWHU :72 DFFHVVLRQ WR EH VWURQJHU WKDQ OLEHUDOL]LQJ RQHV IRU WKH FRVWVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDUHUHODWLYHO\FRQFHQWUDWHGZKHUHDVWKHEHQHÀWVDUHPRUH GLIIXVH ([SRUWHUV HVSHFLDOO\ WH[WLOHV DQG DSSDUHO PDQXIDFWXUHUV DQG FRQVXPHUVZKRJDLQHGDFFHVVWRFKHDSHULPSRUWHGSURGXFWVVWDQGWREHWKHZLQQHUVLQ WKLVSURFHVV$VSURWHFWLRQLVWZDOOVWRLPSRUWVFRQWLQXHWRIDOOORVHUVLQFOXGHWKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ ÀUPV WKDW DUH XQDEOH WR ZHDWKHU LQHYLWDEOH OD\RIIV DQG EHFRPH PRUHFRPSHWLWLYH
Pearson
The role of international pressure in China’s trade liberalization 7KH JUHDWHU RSHQQHVV WR QRQWUDGLWLRQDO &KLQHVH YRLFHV LQ WUDGH SROLF\PDNLQJ UDLVHVWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWLQWHUQDWLRQDOIRUFHVDOVRKDYHJDLQHGLQÁXHQFH,QGHHG WKH TXHVWLRQ ZKHWKHU &KLQD·V RSHQLQJ WR WKH RXWVLGH ZRUOG LV GXH SULPDULO\ WR GRPHVWLFFKDQJHRUWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHLVRIWHQUDLVHG$GHFLVLYHDQVZHUWR WKLVTXHVWLRQLVH[WUHPHO\GLIÀFXOWWRDVFHUWDLQERWKLQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOSUHVVXUHV KDYH EHHQ HYLGHQW DQG DW GLIIHUHQW WLPHV HDFK KDV DSSHDUHG WR GRPLQDWH 7KH GLVFXVVLRQLQWKLVVHFWLRQDWWHPSWVWRPDNHVRPHVHQVHRIWKHFRPSOH[G\QDPLF EHWZHHQ LQWHUQDO DQG H[WHUQDO SUHVVXUH DV LW KDV LQWHUDFWHG ZLWK &KLQD·V WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ $V GLVFXVVHG DERYH &KLQD·V UHIRUP OHDGHUVKLS PDGH PDQ\ NH\ GHFLVLRQV DIIHFWLQJWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWHUQDOO\IRUGRPHVWLFHFRQRPLFUHDVRQVDQGZLWKRXWFRHUFLRQIURPRXWVLGH2EYLRXVO\WKHQDJUHDWGHDORIWKHFRQFUHWHLPSHWXV IRU FKDQJH FDPH IURP ZLWKLQ ([WHUQDO SUHVVXUH PRUHRYHU KDV EHHQ PHGLDWHG WKURXJKGRPHVWLFSROLWLFVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQV+DYLQJDFNQRZOHGJHGWKHNH\UROHRI GRPHVWLF IRUFHV WKRXJK WKHUH ZHUH NH\ PRPHQWV DW ZKLFK IRUHLJQ H[LJHQFLHV WRRNFHQWHUVWDJH$VDJHQHUDOWUHQGPRUHRYHULQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHRYHUWKH VSHFLÀFFRPPLWPHQWVUHTXLUHGIRU:72DFFHVVLRQJUHZRYHUWLPH2QFH&KLQHVH UHIRUPHUVGHFLGHGLQWKHODWHVWRPDNHLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQRIWKHHFRQRP\WKH FRXQWU\·VÀUVWSULRULW\LQ´7KH)RXU0RGHUQL]DWLRQVµ WKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWH[W LQZKLFKWKH\IRXQGWKHPVHOYHVEHFDPHFUXFLDO ,QGHHGWKHVLWXDWLRQIRUWKHSRVW0DRUHIRUPHUVZDVPDUNHGO\GLIIHUHQWIURP 0DR·V HIIRUW WR EXLOG &KLQD·V HFRQRP\ LQ WKH 6RYLHW LPDJH DQG IURP WKH WLPH ZKHQKHFKDQJHGFRXUVHGLVDVWURXVO\ LQWKH*UHDW/HDS)RUZDUGHIIRUWWRVXUSDVV WKH :HVW %\ WKH ODWH V WKHVH WZR DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV RI 6RYLHWVW\OH LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ DQG VHOIUHOLDQFH KDG EHHQ GLVFUHGLWHG LQ &KLQHVH H\HV 7KH VXFFHVVRIPDUNHWRULHQWHG+RQJ.RQJZDVREYLRXV7KH´(DVW$VLDQPLUDFOHµ PRGHORIODUJHLQGXVWULDOFRQJORPHUDWHVZLWKVWURQJWLHVWRDQGVXSSRUWIURPWKH VWDWHUHWDLQHGUHOHYDQFHIRUWKHPRVWVWUDWHJLFVHFWRUVRIWKHVWDWHRZQHGHFRQRP\ EXWLQWKHZDNHRIWKH$VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLVZDVQRWVHHQDVDYLDEOHPRGHOIRU WKHHFRQRP\DVDZKROH7KXV'HQJ;LDRSLQJDQGKLVFDGUHRIUHIRUPHUVIRXQG WKHPVHOYHV ZLWK QR YLDEOH DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHO IRU LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ EXW RQH WKDW LQYROYHGLQWHJUDWLRQLQWRWKHZRUOGWUDGLQJV\VWHP ,W ZDV WKHUHIRUH WKH GHVLUH WR JDLQ WKH SHUFHLYHG EHQHÀWV RI WKH HVWDEOLVKHG JOREDOPDUNHWV\VWHPDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDGHUHJLPHRYHUZKLFKWKH\KDGOLWWOH PHDQLQJIXO OHYHUDJH DW WKH WLPH WR VKDSH WKDW JDLQHG D IRRWKROG LQ UHIRUPHUV· PLQGV DQG XOWLPDWHO\ SXVKHG WKHP WR OLEHUDOL]H $V &KLQHVH UHIRUPHUV FDPH LQFUHDVLQJO\WREHOLHYHWKDW&KLQDFRXOGUHDSWUHPHQGRXVUHZDUGVIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH WKH\ FRPPLWWHG PRUH DQG PRUH WR WKH V\VWHP 1RZKHUH ZDV WKLV FOHDUHUWKDQZLWKWKHWH[WLOHVDQGDSSDUHOLQGXVWU\DQGLQWKHQHZIRXQGZHDOWK RI&KLQD·V´QHZµLQGXVWULDOFLWLHVLQZKLFKH[SRUWRULHQWHGWRZQVKLSDQGYLOODJH HQWHUSULVHV79(V WKULYHG7KHGHFOLQHRIH[SRUWPDUNHWVDIWHUWKH$VLDQÀQDQFLDO FULVLVDQGWKHVORZLQJRIWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\LQWKHODWHVDQGHDUO\V VXJJHVWHGKRZPXFKWKHVHVHFWRUVDQGUHJLRQVKDGFRPHWRGHSHQGRQRYHUVHDV
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization PDUNHWV$QRWKHUIRUPRILQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUH²&KLQD·VGHVLUHWREHULGRIWKH DQQXDOF\FOHRIPRVWIDYRUHGQDWLRQVWDWXVUHQHZDOLQWKH86&RQJUHVV²ZDVDOVR DVWURQJLPSHWXVIRU:72PHPEHUVKLS 0RUHFRQFUHWHO\NH\QHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKIRUHLJQJRYHUQPHQWVDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQVSDUWLFXODUO\WKH86JRYHUQPHQWSXQFWXDWHGWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSURFHVV 2QFH &KLQD GHFLGHG WKDW:72 PHPEHUVKLS ZDV FUXFLDO IRU LWV HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQWLWKDGWRPHHWWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVLPSRVHGIURPRXWVLGH%HFDXVHWKH UHTXLUHPHQWVIRUDQ\FRXQWU\·VHQWU\WR:72ZHUHVXEVWDQWLDOO\KLJKHUWKDQWKRVH IRU DGPLVVLRQ WR *$77 DQG EHFDXVH RI WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RXWVLGH &KLQD WKDW WRR OHQLHQWDQDFFHVVLRQSDFNDJHZRXOGEHKDUPIXOWRZRUOGWUDGHIRUHLJQSUHVVXUH LQFUHDVHGRYHUWKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHV,QGHHGWKHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRU&KLQD·V HQWU\ZHUHVHWKLJKHUWKDQWKRVHIRUSUHYLRXV:72HQWUDQWV7KHIDFWWKDW&KLQD RIWHQPDGHOLEHUDOL]LQJUHIRUPVDKHDGRIWKHGHDGOLQHVLPSRVHGE\IRUHLJQQHJRWLDWRUVVXFKDVWKHHDUO\WDULIIUHGXFWLRQVWKDWEURXJKWWDULIIVRQPDQ\JRRGV LQWR :72 FRPSOLDQFH HYHQ EHIRUH &KLQD·V IRUPDO DFFHVVLRQ KDV PDGH WKHVH FKDQJHVDSSHDUQRQFRHUFHG
Pearson VHQVLWLYLW\ RI WUDGH SROLWLFV DQG WKH SUREOHP RI FRPSHQVDWLRQ RI ORVHUV DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDOIULFWLRQV The pressure for deeper institutionalization 7KH GRPHVWLF LQVWLWXWLRQDO UHIRUPV WKDW WKH 35& KDV XQGHUWDNHQ DV D PHPEHU RI WKH :72 DUH UHODWHG WR &KLQD·V RYHUDOO HIIRUW WR EXLOG UREXVW FDSDFLRXV LQVWLWXWLRQVWRVXSSRUWWKHQHZGLUHFWLRQ$NH\LVVXHLQXQGHUVWDQGLQJ&KLQD·V IRUPDOFRPPLWPHQWVWR:72LVWKHIDFWWKDWHYHQLIVXSSRUWHGE\WRSOHDGHUV FRPSOLDQFH FDQQRW EH DFKLHYHG ZLWKRXW VXFK LQVWLWXWLRQDOL]DWLRQ &KLQD·V DJUHHPHQWWRPDNHQXPHURXVLQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDQJHVRQDVKRUWWLPHWDEOHLQPDQ\ LQVWDQFHVWKUHHWRÀYH\HDUVKHLJKWHQVWKHXUJHQF\RIWKLVLVVXH,WLVXQOLNHO\WKDW WKHGHSWKRILQVWLWXWLRQDOL]DWLRQQHFHVVDU\WRDFKLHYHFRPSOLDQFHFDQRFFXUDWWKH SDFHGLFWDWHGE\WKHDJUHHPHQW 35&FRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKH:72LVEHLQJZDWFKHGYHU\FORVHO\IURPRXWVLGH +RZHYHUHYHQPRUHLPSRUWDQWLVWKHdomesticQHHGWRGHYHORSWKHVHLQVWLWXWLRQV 6DDGLD3HNNDQHQ·VFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKLVYROXPHLOOXVWUDWHV-DSDQ·VOHJDOGHYHORSPHQWYLVjYLV:72PHPEHUVKLS-DSDQLQUHFHQW\HDUVKDVEHHQNHHQWROHYHUDJH :72UXOHVWRLWVDGYDQWDJHLQWUDGHGLVSXWHV²DSURFHVVRI´OHJDOL]DWLRQµ
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization (IIRUWV WR PDQDJH GRPHVWLF DFWRUV QHZO\ LQWHUHVWHG LQ WUDGH SROLF\ ² DQG WR SD\RIIRURWKHUZLVHFRPSHQVDWHORVHUV²DUHPDGHERWKGLIÀFXOWDQGSROLWLFDOO\ QHFHVVDU\E\WKHVLJQLÀFDQWFRVWVRI:72LQWHJUDWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\LQWKHVKRUWWR PHGLXPWHUP7KHPDMRUFRVWVDUHH[SHFWHGWREHLQFUHDVHGOHYHOVRIXQHPSOR\PHQWLQVRPHVHFWRUVUHVXOWLQJIURPGLVSODFHPHQWRIGRPHVWLFLQGXVWULHV/D\RIIV LQ 62(V VHFWRUV DUH ZRUULVRPH $V RQH SXEOLF VHFXULW\ RIÀFLDO IURP $QKXL 3URYLQFH VWDWHG ´:H QHHG WR SD\ FORVH DWWHQWLRQ WR WKRVH FRPSDQLHV WKDW PD\ H[SHULHQFHDKXJH>XQHPSOR\PHQW@LPSDFWIURPRXUMRLQLQJWKH:72µDGGLQJ WKDW´WURRSVRIGRPHVWLFVHFXULW\µVKRXOGSUHSDUHIRU´DFWXDOFRPEDWµRYHUIDLOLQJ 62(V+DPULQDQG&DUQHV 8QHPSOR\PHQWLQFRPHJDSVDQGSRWHQWLDO XQUHVWLQWKHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRUDQGLQODQGUHJLRQVKDYHEHHQSDUWLFXODUO\ZRUULVRPH IRU WKH\ H[DFHUEDWH WKH H[LVWLQJ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI WKH RYHUDOO UHIRUPV ,VVXHV RI XUEDQ²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nternational cooperation/international friction 7KHGRPHVWLFWHQVLRQVHQXPHUDWHGKHUHGRQRWRFFXULQDYDFXXPDQGWKHPDQQHU LQZKLFKWKH\PD\EHDIIHFWHGE\LQWHUQDWLRQDOHYHQWVSDUWLFXODUO\UHODWLRQVZLWK &KLQD·V WUDGH SDUWQHUV ZLOO EH UHOHYDQW WR WKHLU RXWFRPH 0RVW VDOLHQW IRU WKH SXUSRVHVRIWKLVYROXPHDUH&KLQD·VUHODWLRQVZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG-DSDQ DQGWKHSURVSHFWVIRUIXUWKHUUHJLRQDOWUDGHLQWHJUDWLRQ ,WUHPDLQVWREHVHHQKRZFLUFXPVSHFWWKH86JRYHUQPHQWZLOOEHDERXWGLIÀFXOWLHV&KLQDLVOLNHO\WRKDYHLQPHHWLQJLWVVWULQJHQWWLPHWDEOHVIRUFRPSOLDQFH DFURVVDPXOWLWXGHRIIURQWV,QWUDGHDVGLVFXVVHGSUHYLRXVO\FRPSOLDQFHZLWK PDQ\RIWKHWDULIIDQGQRQWDULIIFRPPLWPHQWVZDVZHOOXQGHUZD\EHIRUHDFFHVVLRQDQGPRVWSKDVHGLQFRPPLWPHQWVKDYHEHHQPHWRQWLPH
Pearson /DUG\² 0RUHRYHUGHVSLWHWKHJUDQWLQJRI3175VWDWXVWRWKH35& E\ WKH 86 JRYHUQPHQW LQ WKH IXQFWLRQ RI KDYLQJ D SODWIRUP WR PRQLWRU &KLQHVHEHKDYLRUWKDWKDGEHHQVHUYHGE\DQQXDO175UHQHZDOZDVVLPSO\VKLIWHG WRRWKHURUJDQL]DWLRQV([DFWO\KRZMXGLFLRXV86SROLWLFDODFWRUVFKRRVHWREHLQ HPSOR\LQJWKHVHWRROVUHPDLQVWREHVHHQ(YLGHQFHIURPWKHÀUVWIRXU\HDUVDIWHU DFFHVVLRQGRHVQRWOHDGWRRSWLPLVPDERXWDVPRRWKUHODWLRQVKLSDVRXWVRXUFLQJ WR&KLQDDQGWKHRYHUYDOXHG&KLQHVHFXUUHQF\ZHUHLQFUHDVLQJO\WDUJHWHGE\86 SROLWLFLDQVDVWKHVRXUFHRIPDQ\HFRQRPLFSUREOHPVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV &KLQD·VWUDGHUHODWLRQVZLWK-DSDQDUHDOVRSRLVHGWREHWHQVHDVZRUULHVDUH JURZLQJ LQ -DSDQ DERXW FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP &KLQD LQFOXGLQJ D ÀUVWWLPH WUDGH GHÀFLWZLWK&KLQDLQFOXGLQJ+RQJ.RQJ %URRNH $V-DSDQ·VHFRQRPLF VOXJJLVKQHVVGUDJVRQDQG-DSDQHVHPDQXIDFWXUHUVVKLIWSURGXFWLRQWRWKHPDLQODQGPDQ\-DSDQHVHRIÀFLDOVKDYHZRUULHGWKDWWKHKLJKZDJH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\ ZLOO EH VXIIRFDWHG E\ &KLQD·V ORZHUZDJH G\QDPR 0RUHRYHU -DSDQ·V KLJKO\ SURWHFWHGIDUPHUVKDYHEODQFKHGDWORZFRVWLPSRUWVIURP&KLQDLQVHYHUDODUHDV *LYHQ-DSDQ·VWXUQWROHJDOL]DWLRQWRUHVROYHGLVSXWHV:72GLVSXWHPHFKDQLVPV DUHOLNHO\WREHJLYHQZLGHUEHUWKWRUHVROYHELODWHUDOGLVSXWHV$WWKHVDPHWLPH KRZHYHU&KLQDKDVSDVVHGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDV-DSDQ·VODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHU VXJJHVWLQJDGHHSHQLQJLQWHUGHSHQGHQFHDQGQHHGIRUDWWHQWLRQE\ERWKJRYHUQPHQWVWRLWVLPSOLFDWLRQV%OXVWHLQ
Conclusion &KLQD·VSURFHVVRIODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFOHDUO\ZLOOFRQWLQXHWREHDIIHFWHGE\WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQWH[WRIWKHHDUO\WZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\QRWRQO\E\ELODWHUDODQG UHJLRQDOLQWHUDFWLRQVEXWDOVRE\HYROXWLRQRIJOREDOQRUPVRIWUDGHPDQDJHPHQW DQGWKHQLFKHLWWDNHVLQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\0RUHWKDQLQ-DSDQKRZHYHUWKH VWDWHZLOOFRQWLQXHWRGRPLQDWH&KLQD·VSURFHVVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGSHUKDSVEH WKHFUXFLDOGULYHURIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDJDLQVWPRUHSURWHFWLRQLVWGRPHVWLFLQWHUHVWV 7KLV LQWHUSOD\ EHWZHHQ WKH ZLQQHUV IURP OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZLWK HOHPHQWV RI WKH UHIRUPLVWVWDWHDVWKHLUFKDPSLRQDQGWKHORVHUVDQGWKHLUFKDPSLRQV²PDQ\RI ZKRPDUHDOVRORFDWHGLQWKHSXUYLHZRIWKHVWDWH²ZLOOEHWKHFUXFLDOG\QDPLF DIIHFWLQJ&KLQD·VRQJRLQJFRPPLWPHQWWROLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIWUDGH
Notes 7KHUHIHUHQFHSRLQWIRU´ODWHGHYHORSPHQWµLV*HUVFKHQNURQ² 'HVSLWH WKLV WUDGH JURZWK &KLQD VWLOO DFFRXQWHG IRU OHVV WKDQ SHUFHQW RI ZRUOG WUDGHLQ´2QD5ROOµ(FRQRPLVW*OREDO$JHQGD-XQHDWKWWSZZZ HFRQRPLVWFRPDJHQGDFIP"6WRU\B,' &KLQD·VVKDUHRIZRUOGWUDGHZDV SURMHFWHGWRUHDFKSHUFHQWE\:RUOG%DQNE )URP WR RYHUDOO WUDGH JUHZ E\ SHUFHQW +RZHYHU RYHU WKH SHULRG ²&KLQD·VWRWDOWUDGHJUHZE\PRUHWKDQSHUFHQWZKHUHDVJOREDOWUDGH RYHUDOOZDVXSSHUFHQW%OXVWHLQ &KLQD·VSRVWDFFHVVLRQVKDUHRIZRUOGH[SRUWPDUNHWVLVHVWLPDWHGE\,DQFKRYLFKLQD DQG0DUWLQ7DEOH WRULVHIURPSHUFHQWLQWRSHUFHQWLQ
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization 2QWKHÀJXUHVHH6XKDQG6HR 7KHÀJXUHLVIURP:RUOG%DQN 2Q -DSDQ·V WUDGH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ XS WR WKH PLGV VHH .RPL\D DQG ,WRK -DSDQZDVURXWLQHO\GLVFULPLQDWHGDJDLQVWE\RWKHU*$77VLJQDWRULHVWKURXJKRXWWKH SRVWDFFHVVLRQSHULRGDV-DSDQ·VPDMRUWUDGHSDUWQHUVUHIXVHGWRRIIHU-DSDQ*$77 SULYLOHJHV $OWKRXJK &KLQD·V ´RSHQLQJ WR WKH RXWVLGH ZRUOGµ EHJDQ LQ WKH ODWH V WKH FRPSRVLWLRQRIH[SRUWVXQWLOWKHPLGVFRQWLQXHGWRUHÁHFWWKHPLGVSROLF\ RI H[SRUWLQJ FDSLWDOLQWHQVLYH FUXGH RLO DQG UHÀQHG SHWUROHXP SURGXFWV WR SD\ IRU LPSRUWVGHVSLWHDJURZLQJGRPHVWLFHQHUJ\VKRUWDJH 4XDVLSULYDWHWRZQVKLSDQGYLOODJHHQWHUSULVHV79(V ZKLFKZHUHWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDO GULYHUV RI H[SRUWV GHSHQGHG XSRQ FKHDS ODERU IURP UXUDO IDPLOLHV DV ZHOO DV VWDWH SROLF\DQGHQWUHSUHQHXURIÀFLDOVWKDWIRVWHUHGWKHP2Q79(VVHH2L &KLQDXQVXFFHVVIXOO\DWWHPSWHGWRMRLQWKH*$77EHIRUHWKDWLQVWLWXWLRQVHJXHGLQWR WKH:72RQ-DQXDU\3HDUVRQ $OOFRXQWULHVHQWHULQJWKH:72IDFH VWULFWHUVWDQGDUGVLQWHUPVRIWDULIIOHYHOVDQGWKHLUELQGLQJQDWXUH/DUG\&K 7KHDYHUDJHLVFLWHGLQ/DUG\IQ 2QH HIIHFW RI &KLQD·V :72 FRPSOLDQFH VKRXOG EH WR ORZHU LQWHUQDO SURWHFWLRQLVW EDUULHUV ZKLFK FUHDWH GLVLQFHQWLYHV IRU domestic SURGXFHUV WR HQJDJH LQ WUDGH 2Q KRZGRPHVWLFSURWHFWLRQLVPDIIHFWVWUDGHSDWWHUQVVHH1DXJKWRQ ,DQFKRYLFKLQD DQG 0DUWLQ DQWLFLSDWHG WKDW EHQHÀWV WR &KLQD IURP:72 DFFHVVLRQZRXOG´RFFXUPDLQO\DVDUHVXOWRILWVRZQOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRYHUWKHFRXUVHRI \HDUVVWDUWLQJLQ7DULIIUHIRUPDIWHUZLOOOHDGWRUHODWLYHO\VPDOOJDLQV VLQFHWKHZHOIDUHHIIHFWVRIWDULIIFXWVIURPDJLYHQWDULIIUHGXFWLRQVWDUWLQJIURPD KLJKLQLWLDOOHYHO>VLF@LVPXFKODUJHUWKDQWKHEHQHÀWVIURPVXEVHTXHQWFXWVLQDOUHDG\ ORZHUHGWDULIIVµ 7KLVSUHUHIRUPWUDGHV\VWHPFRQWDLQHGH[FKDQJHUDWHGLVWRUWLRQVLHWKHRYHUYDOXDWLRQ RIWKHUHQPLQELZKLFKVXSSUHVVHGWKHLQFHQWLYHWRH[SRUWDQGJDYHIDOVHLQFHQWLYHVWR LPSRUW0RUHRYHUH[SRUWPDQXIDFWXUHUVGLGQRWUHFHLYHDQ\IRUHLJQH[FKDQJHLQFRPH ZKLOHLPSRUWVWHQGHGWREHVROGDWWKHLQÁDWHGGRPHVWLFSULFHIXUWKHUGDPSHQLQJWKHLU LQFHQWLYHWRSURGXFHIRUH[SRUW)7&VFUHDWHGDQDLUORFNEHWZHHQGRPHVWLFSURGXFHUV DQGWKHIRUHLJQPDUNHWIXUWKHUGLVWRUWLQJLQFHQWLYHVVHH/DUG\² 2QWDULIIUDWHVDQGUHGXFWLRQVXSWRVHH,DQFKRYLFKLQDDQG0DUWLQ )LJXUHV IRU DUH IURP 86²&KLQD %XVLQHVV &RXQFLO ([FOXGHG IURP WKH UDWHDUHFHUWDLQDJULFXOWXUDOJRRGVQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVDQGSURGXFWVXQGHUTXRWD RUOLFHQVHPDQDJHPHQW7KHGLVSHUVLRQRIWDULIIVDURXQGWKHDYHUDJHIHOOIURP SHUFHQWLQ WR SHUFHQWLQ KRZHYHU VLJQLI\LQJ DQ RYHUDOOUHGXFWLRQLQ SURWHFWLRQ DFURVV PXOWLSOH LQGXVWULHV /DUG\ DUJXHV WKDW LQ WKH ÀUVW KDOI RILHHYHQSULRUWR:72DFFHVVLRQOHVVWKDQSHUFHQWRILPSRUWVZHUHLQ SUDFWLFHVXEMHFWWRDQ\WDULII 7KHÀJXUHIRUSURGXFWVVXEMHFWWRH[SRUWUHVWULFWLRQVH[FOXGHVWH[WLOHVDQGDSSDUHOIRU ZKLFKH[SRUWTXRWDVZHUHH[WHUQDOO\LPSRVHGYLDWKH0XOWLÀEHU$UUDQJHPHQW0)$ DQG WKHUHIRUH ZHUH QRW DQ LQVWUXPHQW RI GRPHVWLF SURWHFWLRQLVP )RU PRUH RQ WKH 0)$VHHEHORZ )RUH[DPSOHWKHDYHUDJHWDULIIRQPDQXIDFWXUHVZDVUHGXFHGWRSHUFHQWE\ ZHOOEHORZWKHUDWHVRISHUFHQWIRU,QGLDDQGQHDUO\SHUFHQWIRU,QGRQHVLD )XUWKHUHQKDQFLQJWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDW&KLQDZLOOLQFUHDVHLWVLPSRUWVWKH754V\VWHP GRHVQRWFRPSHODFRXQWU\WRLPSRUWWKHIXOODPRXQWWKDWLVJXDUDQWHHGDORZHUUDWH &KLQD DJUHHG WR 86 GHPDQGV WKDW SDUW RI LWV LPSRUW TXRWD IRU HDFK FRPPRGLW\ EH DOORFDWHGWRSULYDWHWUDGHUVZKRDUJXDEO\ZLOOEHPRUHUHVSRQVLYHWRORZHULPSRUW SULFHV7KLVVWUDWHJ\ZDVLQODUJHSDUWDUHDFWLRQWRH[SHULHQFHZLWK-DSDQZKLFKKDV GLUHFWHGVWDWHWUDGLQJPRQRSROLHVWRUDLVHGRPHVWLFSULFHVUDWKHUWKDQLPSRUWLQJ
Pearson 7KLVUDWHRISHUFHQWIDOOVEHORZWKH´GHYHORSLQJFRXQWU\µUDWHRISHUFHQWVHH ,DQFKRYLFKLQDDQG0DUWLQ/DUG\² 2QFRQWLQXHGIRUHLJQGLVVDWLVIDFWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\ZLWKWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIWKH754 V\VWHPVHH86²&KLQD%XVLQHVV&RXQFLO 2WKHUPRGHOVDUHOHVVRSWLPLVWLFSUHGLFWLQJDULVHRIRQO\²SHUFHQWE\² 6HH86,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGH&RPPLVVLRQ² 2QWKHODZVHH/DUG\² 2QWKHODZSURPXOJDWHG2FWREHU VHH´&KLQD,QWURGXFHV$QWL'XPSLQJ/DZµXinhua'HFHPEHUDW ZZZFQGRUJ*OREDO²KWPO 9DULRXV35&JRYHUQPHQWDJHQFLHVKDYHGHYHORSHG&KLQHVHÀUPV·FDSDFLW\WRGHIHQG DJDLQVWDQWLGXPSLQJDFWLRQVUHÁHFWLQJWKHIDFWWKDWZRUOGZLGH&KLQDLVWKHPRVW IUHTXHQWWDUJHWRIDQWLGXPSLQJFKDUJHVVHH2·1HLOO.HQQHG\ $ QHZ 0LQLVWU\ RI &RPPHUFH ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG LQ 0DUFK DQG LPPHGLDWHO\ DEVRUEHGWKHIXQFWLRQVRIWKHQRZGHIXQFW02)7(& $VRIRQHWKRXVDQGRIWKHVHZHUHSULYDWHHQWHUSULVHV/DUG\²DQG 7DEOH 2QOHJDOFKDQJHVVHH´&KLQD6XEPLWV:RUNLQJ'RFXPHQWVWR:72µXinhua2FWREHU LQ)%,6&+, ´:72(QWU\WR&KDOOHQJH&KLQD·V$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ 6\VWHPµ Xinhua 'HFHPEHU DW ZZZFQGRUJ*OREDO² KWPO ´&KLQD$GMXVWV7UDGH/DZVIRU)LQDO:72(QWU\µPeople’s Daily(QJOLVK HGLWLRQ 1RYHPEHU DW KWWSHQJOLVKSHRSOHGDLO\FRPFQ HQJBKWPO DQG6KDR 7KLVJRDOLVUHÁHFWHGLQWKHVWDWHPHQWVRI867UDGH5HSUHVHQWDWLYH=RHOOLFN 2Q=KDR·VUROHVHH)HQJ² 2QWKHFHQWUDOLW\RIWDULIIUHGXFWLRQVHH -DFREVRQDQG2NVHQEHUJ² ,QWHUYLHZZLWK02)7(&WUDGHQHJRWLDWRU)HEUXDU\:DVKLQJWRQ'& 6WURQJLQÁXHQFHRYHU:72QHJRWLDWLRQVZDVDOVRH[HUFLVHGE\WKHWRSOHDGHUVLQWKH IRUHLJQHFRQRPLFUHODWLRQVDUHQD/L/DQTLQJDQG:X
The foundations of China’s trade liberalization )XQGVWRPRQLWRU&KLQD·VFRPSOLDQFHZLWK:72KDYHJRQHWRWKH86&RQJUHVVLQ WKH IRUP RI WKH 86²&KLQD 6HFXULW\ 5HYLHZ &RPPLVVLRQ DQG WKH GHSDUWPHQWV RI $JULFXOWXUH &RPPHUFH DQG 6WDWH DQG WKH 2IÀFH RI WKH 86 7UDGH 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH /DUG\² -DSDQKDVORQJKDGDGHÀFLWZLWK&KLQDexcluding+RQJ.RQJEXWWKLVZDVPDGHXS IRUE\-DSDQ·VKXJHKLVWRULFDOVXUSOXVZLWK+RQJ.RQJ
From iron doors to paper screens 7KH-DSDQHVHVWDWHDQGPXOWLQDWLRQDO LQYHVWPHQW Mireya Solis
7KH-DSDQHVHVWDWH·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ÀFDWLRQDQGWKHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHQXPEHURI LQGXVWULHVVXEMHFWWRPRUHVWULQJHQWFRQWURO ,Q NHHSLQJ ZLWK WKH RYHUDUFKLQJ JRDO RI WKLV YROXPH LQ WKLV FKDSWHU , VHHN WR H[WULFDWHWKHPDLQIDFWRUVEHKLQGODWHGHUHJXODWLRQRIIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWDQG WR SRLQW WR WKH LQWHUSOD\ RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPPLWPHQWV DQG GRPHVWLF FRQVWLWXHQF\ SROLWLFVWRH[SODLQWKHWLPLQJDQGFRQWHQWRI-DSDQ·V)',OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,QVRGRLQJ ,DUJXHWKDWWKHSURFHVVRIFDSLWDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQLVPRUHFRPSOH[WKDQSUHYLRXVO\UHFNRQHG7KHPRVWFRPPRQDFFRXQWVRI)',OLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQSRLQWWR WKHLQÁXHQFHRIIRUHLJQSUHVVXUHIURPWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOLQVWLWXWLRQV RULQWHUQDOSUHVVXUHIURPGRPHVWLFROLJRSROLVWVHDJHUWRDFTXLUHWKHSURSULHWDU\WHFKQRORJ\RIIRUHLJQÀUPV&DOGHU(QFDUQDWLRQDQG0DVRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO FRPPLWPHQWV DQG GRPHVWLF FRQVWLWXHQFLHV LQ IDYRU RI SDUWLDO GHUHJXODWLRQ DUH RI FRXUVHRIJUHDWLPSRUWDQFHLQH[SODLQLQJWKHJHQHUDOPRYHRI-DSDQWRZDUGDPRUH SHUPLVVLYH V\VWHP RI IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW
From iron doors to paper screens
DJHG DQG LQ SULQFLSOH IRUEDGH LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDQVDFWLRQV DQG DOVR EHFDXVH LW DZDUGHGWKHEXUHDXFUDF\JUHDWGLVFUHWLRQWRLQWHUYHQHLQWKHRSHUDWLRQVRI01&V 7KHUHIRUHDQ\JHQXLQHDWWHPSWWROLEHUDOL]HIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWÁRZVKDG WRLQYROYHUHIRUPRIWKH)(&/DQGLQWHUEXUHDXFUDWLFSROLWLFVZHUHFHQWUDOWRWKLV SURFHVV$Q RYHUKDXO RI WKH )(&/ LQYDULDEO\ SLWWHG WZR RI WKH PRVW SRZHUIXO HFRQRPLF EXUHDXFUDFLHV WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI )LQDQFH 02) DQG WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG,QGXVWU\0,7, LQDFRQWHVWRYHUMXULVGLFWLRQDQGSURWHFWLRQ RI FOLHQW FRQVWLWXHQFLHV (DFK RI WKHVH PLQLVWULHV FRQVLVWHQWO\ VRXJKW WR GHOLYHURQ-DSDQ·VLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWVWRFDSLWDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQE\RIIHULQJ GHUHJXODWLRQ RQ WKH ULYDO PLQLVWU\·V DUHD RI MXULVGLFWLRQ ZKLOH SUHVHUYLQJ LQWDFW LWV RZQ VSKHUH RI UHJXODWLRQ 5HIRUP RI WKH )(&/ DOVR FUHDWHG RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR UHGUDZ OLQHV RI MXULVGLFWLRQ DV 0,7,·V UHSHDWHG DQG IDLOHG DWWHPSWV WR JDLQ DPRUHH[SOLFLWPDQGDWHRYHURXWZDUG)',DWWHVW)LQDOO\RQVHYHUDORFFDVLRQV )(&/ UHIRUP SURSRVDOV ÁRXQGHUHG QRW EHFDXVH RI WKHLU GLUHFW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU )',UHJXODWLRQEXWEHFDXVHWKH\DWWDFNHGWKHSULYLOHJHGSRVLWLRQRIEXUHDXFUDWLF FOLHQWVVXFKDVWKHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHEDQNVXQGHUWKHVXSHUYLVLRQRI02)7KLV VWDWHFHQWHUHGH[SODQDWLRQRI)',OLEHUDOL]DWLRQÀWVZHOOZLWKEURDGHUSDWWHUQVRI -DSDQHVHUHJXODWRU\UHIRUPLGHQWLÀHGE\RWKHUVLQWKDWEXUHDXFUDWLFDFWRUVSOD\HG DFHQWUDOUROHDQGRIIHUHGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQPHDVXUHVWKDWQHYHUWKHOHVVOHIWWKHLUGLVFUHWLRQDU\SRZHUODUJHO\XQWRXFKHG69RJHO ,QLGHQWLI\LQJWKHPDLQIRUFHVWKDWKDYHOHGWRODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIERWKLQZDUG DQGRXWZDUGLQYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQWKLVFKDSWHUZLOOGLVFXVVQRWRQO\WKHPHDVXUHV DGRSWHGE\WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWWRUHVWULFWWKHHQWU\RIIRUHLJQ01&VEXW DOVRWKRVHZKLFKH[WHQGHGWRRXWZDUGLQYHVWPHQW7KLVFKDSWHULVRUJDQL]HGDV IROORZV7KHÀUVWVHFWLRQRIIHUVDQRYHUYLHZRI)',LQÁRZVDQGRXWÁRZVLQ-DSDQ 7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVVHFWLRQLVQRWRQO\WRPHDVXUHWKHLQZDUG,)', DQGRXWZDUG )',2)', LPEDODQFHEXWDOVRWRSRLQWWRWKHLQGXVWULDOFRPSRVLWLRQRIGLUHFW LQYHVWPHQWÁRZV,WLGHQWLÀHVWKRVH-DSDQHVHLQGXVWULHVZKLFKKDYHUHVRUWHGWR RYHUVHDVLQYHVWPHQWDQGDOVRWKRVHIRUHLJQHQWHUSULVHVZKLFKKDYHPDGHLQURDGV LQ WKH -DSDQHVH PDUNHW 7KH VHFRQG VHFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV WKH JROGHQ SHULRG RI EXUHDXFUDWLFFRQWURORYHULQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFLDOWUDQVDFWLRQVEHWZHHQDQG *RYHUQPHQWSROLF\GXULQJWKHHDUO\SRVWZDUSHULRGH[KLELWHGDQH[SOLFLW ELDV DJDLQVW FDSLWDO PRELOLW\ WKDW ZDV HYLGHQW LQ WKH -DSDQHVH OHJDO IUDPHZRUN RQIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHWUDQVDFWLRQV7KHWKLUGVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHVWKHWLPLGDWWHPSWV DWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDIWHU-DSDQDFTXLUHGLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWVWRDOORZFURVV ERUGHUFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQV%XUHDXFUDWLFGLVDJUHHPHQWVSUHYHQWHGWKHDGRSWLRQRI DQHZODZWRUHQRYDWHWKHPDQGDWHIRUKHDY\EXUHDXFUDWLFLQWHUYHQWLRQLQ)',VR GHIHQVLYHUHJXODWRU\OLEHUDOL]DWLRQZKLFKVSDQQHGWKHSHULRGIURPWR SHUYDGHGWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VDFWLRQVLQLQZDUGDQGRXWZDUGLQYHVWPHQW 7KHIRXUWKVHFWLRQGLVFXVVHVWKHWZRLQVWDQFHVRIVWUXFWXUDOUHIRUPRIWKH)(&/ LQDQG DQGDJDLQKLJKOLJKWVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIEXUHDXFUDWLFULYDOU\WR H[SODLQWKHWLPLQJDQGPDQQHULQZKLFKFDSLWDOFRQWUROVZHUHOLIWHGLQ-DSDQ7KH ÀQDOVHFWLRQFRQFOXGHVE\FRQWUDVWLQJWKHVKDUSO\GLYHUJHQWDSSURDFKHVRI&KLQD DQG-DSDQLQWKHLUSROLFLHVYLVjYLV01&V
Solis
01&VDQG-DSDQDVVHVVLQJWKH)',GHÀFLW 7UDGLWLRQDOO\ WKH WUDGH EDODQFH KDV EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG WKH PDMRU VRXUFH RI IULFWLRQ EHWZHHQ -DSDQ DQG LWV PDLQ HFRQRPLF SDUWQHUV 7KH IDFW WKDW -DSDQ UXQV D WUDGH VXUSOXV ZLWK PRVW RWKHU QDWLRQV DQG WKDW LQ WKH FDVH RI UHODWLRQV ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHVWKH-DSDQHVHWUDGHVXUSOXVKDVJURZQUDSLGO\RYHUWLPHKDVEHHQWKRURXJKO\ GLVFXVVHG HOVHZKHUH DQG LV KLJKOLJKWHG LQ WKH 3HNNDQHQ FKDSWHU LQ WKLV YROXPH 7KHUHLVLQIDFWDQRWKHUVRXUFHRIIULFWLRQWKDWFDQEHGHVFULEHGDVDQ´LQYHVWPHQW GHÀFLWµ,QGHHG-DSDQKDVORQJVWRRGRXWIRUWKHPDMRULPEDODQFHEHWZHHQ,)',DQG 2)',ÁRZV&ULWLFVRI-DSDQHVHIRUHLJQHFRQRPLFSROLF\EHOLHYHWKDWWKLVUHSUHVHQWV DQRWKHUH[DPSOHRIPHUFDQWLOLVWEHKDYLRUVKXQQLQJIRUHLJQHQWHUSULVHVIURPGLUHFW RSHUDWLRQLQWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHW %HIRUHGLVFXVVLQJWKHSURFHVVRISURWUDFWHG)',OLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQKRZHYHU WKLVVHFWLRQSUHVHQWVWKHHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHLWWUDFHVWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKHLQYHVWPHQW GHÀFLWRYHUWLPHDQGGLVFXVVHVWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQWKHKLVWRULFDOHYROXWLRQ RI,)',DQG2)',ÁRZV)LJXUHPHDVXUHVWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKHLQZDUGRXWZDUG JDSDFURVVGLIIHUHQWWLPHSHULRGV7KLVÀJXUHVKRZVWKDWLQWKHHDUO\SRVWZDUSHULRG WRWDOLQÁRZVDQGRXWÁRZVRILQYHVWPHQWFDSLWDOZHUHYHU\PRGHVW86PLOOLRQ DQG86PLOOLRQRI,)',DQG2)',UHVSHFWLYHO\EHWZHHQDQG7KH )',GHÀFLWZDVDOUHDG\SUHVHQWEXWLWZRXOGJURZWRODUJHUSURSRUWLRQVLQWKHQH[W WZRGHFDGHV'XULQJWKHV2)',ÁRZV86PLOOLRQ ZHUHPRUHWKDQ WZHOYHWLPHVODUJHUWKDQ,)',86PLOOLRQ :LWKWKHXQSUHFHGHQWHGDFWLYDWLRQRI-DSDQHVHRYHUVHDVLQYHVWPHQWLQWKHZDNHRIWKH\HQDSSUHFLDWLRQWKH ,)',2)',JDSUHDFKHGH[WUDRUGLQDU\SURSRUWLRQV2)',ÁRZVZHUHÀIW\VL[WLPHV ODUJHUWKDQ,)',ÁRZVGXULQJWKHV7RSXWWKLVLPEDODQFHLQSHUVSHFWLYHLWLV XVHIXOWRUHPHPEHUWKDWGXULQJWKHVDPHGHFDGHWKH2)',,)',UDWLRZDVRQO\ IRU*HUPDQ\IRUWKH8.DQGIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQRWKHUZRUGVLQWKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVLQÁRZVVXUSDVVHGRXWÁRZVRIGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW 200000 180000 160000
Million dollars
140000 120000 " "
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1960-70
1971-80
1981-90
Figure 6.1 $VVHVVLQJ WKH )', GHÀFLW EDVHG RQ EDODQFH RI SD\PHQWV VWDWLVWLFV 6RXUFH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ IRU (FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 2(&' International Direct Investment Statistics YearbookVHYHUDOLVVXHV
From iron doors to paper screens
7DEOHXSGDWHVWKHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ,)',DQG2)',ÁRZVWRWKH\HDU DQGSURYLGHVDQLQGXVWULDOEUHDNGRZQRIWKHVHÁRZV,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDW WKHQXPEHUVRI7DEOHDUHQRWGLUHFWO\FRPSDUDEOHWRWKRVHRI)LJXUHVLQFH WKHIRUPHUDUHEDVHGRQQRWLÀFDWLRQVWR02)ZKLOHWKHODWWHUZHUHFRPSLOHGE\ WKH%DQNRI-DSDQDQGUHÁHFWDFWXDOLQÁRZVDQGRXWÁRZV1HYHUWKHOHVV02) LVWKHRQO\JRYHUQPHQWLQVWLWXWLRQWKDWGLVDJJUHJDWHVLWVVWDWLVWLFVRQ)',LQÁRZV DQGRXWÁRZVE\LQGXVWU\7DEOHVKRZVWKDWWKHLPEDODQFHEHWZHHQLQFRPLQJ DQGRXWJRLQJGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWVFRQWLQXHGVLQFHRXWZDUG)',ÁRZVZHUHDOPRVW IRXUWLPHVODUJHUWKDQLQZDUGLQYHVWPHQWVGXULQJWKLVSHULRG
The bias against capital mobility in Japanese government SROLF\² ,QWKHDIWHUPDWKRI:RUOG:DU,,DQGWKH$PHULFDQ2FFXSDWLRQWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRPLF EXUHDXFUDF\HPHUJHGUHYLWDOL]HG,WQRWRQO\HVFDSHGPDMRUUHVWUXFWXULQJDWWKHKDQGV
27.7
Total
13.7
52.7
54.2
46,924
232,111
40.5
,QÁRZ (%)
Finance
31.5
101,876
2XWÁRZ ,QÁRZ (%) (US$m)
Total
387,036
148,802
2XWÁRZ ,QÁRZ (US$m) (US$m)
Non-manufacturing
Note %DVHGRQSULRUSRVWQRWLÀFDWLRQ)',VWDWLVWLFVUHSRUWHGLQ\HQDQGFRQYHUWHGWRGROODUVXVLQJWKHDYHUDJHLQWHUHVWUDWH
6RXUFH02)·V)',VWDWLVWLFVDQG,0)·V,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFLDO6WDWLVWLFV
2XWÁRZ (US$m)
Manufacturing
2XWÁRZ ,QÁRZ (%) (US$m)
,QÁRZ (%)
,QÁRZ (%)
2XWÁRZ (%)
Machinery
Chemical
Table 6.1 -DSDQHVH)',ÁRZV²VHOHFWHGVHFWRUV
625,625
2XWÁRZ (US$m)
From iron doors to paper screens
RIWKH$PHULFDQVLWZDVDOVRHTXLSSHGZLWKEURDGSRZHUVRILQWHUYHQWLRQLQNH\DUHDV VXFKDVIRUHLJQWUDGHWHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHUDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDODQGGRPHVWLFÀQDQFH -RKQVRQ3HPSHOG²DQGWKLVYROXPH )RUWKLVGHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH FURVVERUGHU HQWHUSULVH PRELOLW\ UHSUHVHQWHG D WKUHDW WR WKH QRXULVKPHQW RI GRPHVWLF LQGXVWU\ DQG WR WKH HIIHFWLYH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI JRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV 7KHUHIRUH WKH VWDWH VRXJKW WR LQÁXHQFH WKH SDFH DW ZKLFK -DSDQHVH ÀUPV ZHQW PXOWLQDWLRQDODQGWRUHVWULFWWKHDUULYDORISRZHUIXOIRUHLJQ01&VLQWKH-DSDQHVH PDUNHW,QWKLVHQGHDYRUWKHJRYHUQPHQWRSHUDWHGRQÀUPJURXQGWKDQNVWRWKHEURDG GLVFUHWLRQDZDUGHGE\WKH)(&/WRLQWHUGLFWFDSLWDOÁRZVLQFOXGLQJ2)',DQGE\ WKH)RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQW/DZ),/ WRUHJXODWHLQZDUGLQYHVWPHQW7KHELDVDJDLQVW FDSLWDOPRELOLW\DQGIUHHLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVDFWLRQVLQHDUO\SRVWZDU-DSDQHVHSROLF\ ZDVTXLWHH[SOLFLW7KH)(&/H[WHQGHGDEODQNHWSURKLELWLRQRQDOOÀQDQFLDOFURVV QDWLRQDOWUDQVDFWLRQVXQOHVVVSHFLÀFDOO\DXWKRUL]HGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQW$QRWKHUNH\ HOHPHQW RI WKH )(&/ ZKLFK ZRXOG EH RI JUHDW VLJQLÀFDQFH IRU WKH SURVSHFWV IRU FDSLWDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQODWHURQZDVDV\VWHPRIMRLQWMXULVGLFWLRQEHWZHHQWKH0,7, DQG02)RYHU)(&/PDWWHUV$GLYLVLRQRIODERUZDVFRQWHPSODWHGZLWKWKH0,7, LQFKDUJHRIWUDGHWUDQVDFWLRQVDQGWKH02)RYHUVHHLQJÀQDQFLDOGHDOLQJVEXWUHIRUP RIWKHODZUHTXLUHGGHOLEHUDWLRQDQGDJUHHPHQWRIbothEXUHDXFUDFLHV0,7, 7KH JRYHUQPHQW ZDV SDUWLFXODUO\ NHHQ RQ UHJXODWLQJ WKH RSHUDWLRQV RI PXOWL QDWLRQDOHQWHUSULVHV&DVHE\FDVHVFUHHQLQJDQGJRYHUQPHQWDSSURYDORIHDFKFRPSDQ\·V,)',RU2)',SODQZDVPDQGDWRU\ZLWKEXUHDXFUDWLFDXWKRULW\WRLQWHUGLFW IRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWSURMHFWVEURDGO\GHÀQHG7KH)(&/DQG),/JDYHWKHVWDWHWKH ULJKWWRVWRSLQZDUGDQGRXWZDUGLQYHVWPHQWSURMHFWVGHHPHGKDUPIXOWRWKH-DSDQHVH HFRQRP\RUWRDQLQGXVWULDOVHFWRULQSDUWLFXODU7KHJRYHUQPHQWXVHGWKHVHH[WHQVLYH SRZHUVWRUHVWULFW,)',E\DOORZLQJRQO\IRUHLJQPLQRULW\RZQHUVKLSSURMHFWVDQG E\LQIRUPDOO\GHQ\LQJHQWUDQFHWRQHZLQGXVWULHVDGGLWLRQDOFDSLWDOLQMHFWLRQVRU UHPLWWDQFHV DEURDG (QFDUQDWLRQ DQG 0DVRQ ² ,Q WKH DUHD RI RYHUVHDV LQYHVWPHQW WKH VWDWH ZDV SUHSDUHG WR DXWKRUL]H RQO\ SURMHFWV WKDW ZRXOG JHQHUDWH IRUHLJQH[FKDQJHHDUQLQJVLHWKRVHWKDWSURPRWHGGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\-DSDQHVH H[SRUWV DQGRUWKRVHZKLFKFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHVXSSO\RINH\LQGXVWULDOLQSXWV7KH JRYHUQPHQW ZRXOG DOVR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW WKH LPSDFW RI WKH SURSRVHG LQYHVWPHQW DEURDGE\D-DSDQHVHFRPSDQ\RQGRPHVWLFMREVRUWKHFRPSHWLWLYHSRVLWLRQRIRWKHU ÀUPVLQWKHLQGXVWU\EHIRUHJUDQWLQJLWVDXWKRUL]DWLRQ6DIDULDQ%DLOH\et al 7KHSRZHUVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWRYHUPXOWLQDWLRQDOFRUSRUDWLRQVZHUHVRH[WHQVLYH WKDW ´LI GLIIHUHQFHV RI RSLQLRQ H[LVWHG EHWZHHQ WKH LQYHVWRU DQG WKH JRYHUQPHQWWKHJRYHUQPHQWSUHYDLOHGWKHDVVXPSWLRQEHLQJWKDWLWZDVLQDEHWWHU SRVLWLRQWRMXGJHERWKWKHQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWDQGWKHLQWHUHVWRIWKHÀUPµ%HUJVWHQ et al 'XULQJWKHKH\GD\RIEXUHDXFUDWLFFRQWUROWKHUHZDVRQO\RQH DUHDLQZKLFKWKHEXUHDXFUDF\VDZLWVGHVLUHVIRUFRQWUROIUXVWUDWHGWKHSURPSW UHSDWULDWLRQRIHDUQLQJVIURP-DSDQHVHVXEVLGLDULHVDEURDG&OHDUO\LWZDVKDUGHU WRH[DFWFRPSOLDQFHIURP-DSDQHVHVXEVLGLDULHVRSHUDWLQJLQIRUHLJQVRLODQGWKLV H[SHULHQFH DFWXDOO\ UHLQIRUFHG WKH JRYHUQPHQW·V GHWHUPLQDWLRQ WR SURFHHG YHU\ FDXWLRXVO\ZLWKWKHDSSURYDORIQHZLQYHVWPHQWVRYHUVHDV
Solis
International commitments and defensive liberalization ² Bureaucratic squabbles over a new foreign economic law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ÀUVWWLPHWKHQHHGWR UHYDPSLWVUHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUNRQFDSLWDOPRYHPHQWV 7KH0,7,UHVSRQGHGWRWKLVWKUHDWZLWKWZRQHZSLHFHVRIOHJLVODWLRQGHVLJQHG WRSUHVHUYHLWVSRZHUVRILQWHUYHQWLRQLQWKHHFRQRP\GHVSLWHIRUPDOFRPPLWPHQWV WROLEHUDOL]DWLRQ7KURXJKWKH6SHFLDO 0HDVXUHV /DZ IRU WKH 3URPRWLRQ RI 'HVLJQDWHG,QGXVWULHVWKH0,7,VRXJKWDPDQGDWHWRSURPRWHLQIDQWLQGXVWULHV WKDWWKHPLQLVWU\DUJXHGZRXOGEHKDUPHGE\WKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFDPSDLJQ7KH UHDVRQV IRU WKH IDLOXUH RI WKLV EROG LQLWLDWLYH ZKLFK LPSLQJHG RQ MXULVGLFWLRQV RXWVLGHWKH0,7,·VFRQWUROKDYHEHHQWKRURXJKO\GLVFXVVHGE\-DSDQVFKRODUV 7RZDUGVWKH(VWDEOLVKPHQWRID1HZ/DZWR5HSODFHWKH)RUHLJQ ([FKDQJH/DZ@Kinyû Zaisei Jijô0DUFK
From iron doors to paper screens
1RWVXUSULVLQJO\WKH02)FRPSOHWHO\UHMHFWHG0,7,·V)RUHLJQ(FRQRPLF/DZ 7KH 02) ZDV SUHSDUHG WR JLYH XS WKH IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH EXGJHW WR DSSHDVH WKH ,0)EXWZRXOGQRWKHDUDERXWHOLPLQDWLQJWKH)25(;EDQNV\VWHP,QVWHDG02) FULWLFL]HGWKH0,7,·VSURSRVHGVSHFLDOUHVWULFWLRQVRQWHFKQRORJ\,)',DQGIRUHLJQ H[FKDQJHWUDQVDFWLRQVLQVHOHFWHGLQGXVWULHVDVWKHPRVWOLNHO\REVWDFOHVLQPHPEHUVKLS QHJRWLDWLRQV ZLWK WKH 2(&' DQG D OLNHO\ VRXUFH RI IULFWLRQ ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV,QHIIHFWWKH02)DUJXHGWKDWWKH0,7,·VSHQFKDQWIRULQGXVWULDOFRQWURO DQGQRWWKH)25(;EDQNV\VWHPZDVWKHEDUULHUWROLEHUDOL]DWLRQ7KHEXUHDXFUDWLF GHDGORFNNLOOHGWKH)RUHLJQ(FRQRPLF/DZDQG-DSDQXSRQLWVDFFHVVLRQWRWKH,0) JDYHDZD\RQO\WKHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHEXGJHWV\VWHP02)² Liberalization and re-regulation: one step forward, two steps back 6LQFH EXUHDXFUDWLF GLVSXWHV GRRPHG WKH DGRSWLRQ RI D QHZ ODZ RQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF WUDQVDFWLRQV WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW UHVRUWHG LQVWHDG WR SLHFHPHDO UHJXODWRU\ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ NHHSLQJ WKH )(&/ LQWDFW %HWZHHQ DQG WKH -DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWFDUULHGRXWÀYHGLIIHUHQWURXQGVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI2)',DQG ,)',)RU-DSDQHVHPXOWLQDWLRQDOVLQYHVWLQJDEURDGWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWFRQVHTXHQFH RIWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQHIIRUWZDVWKHSURJUHVVLYHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHLQYHVWPHQWVDEURDG VXEMHFW WR DXWRPDWLF DSSURYDO IURP XQGHU 86 GROODUV LQ WR XQGHU 86PLOOLRQGROODUVLQ DQGWKHDGRSWLRQLQRIDSULRUQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHP WRUHSODFHWKHDSSURYDOPHFKDQLVP,QVWHDGRIKDYLQJWRZDLWIRUUHYLHZDQGDSSURYDO RIHDFKSURMHFW-DSDQHVHHQWHUSULVHVZHUHQRZUHTXLUHGRQO\WRJLYHSULRUQRWLFHWR WKHJRYHUQPHQWRIWKHLULQYHVWPHQWSODQVDEURDG 'HVSLWHWKHVHORRVHQHGUHVWULFWLRQVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWFRQWLQXHGWR]HDORXVO\PRQLWRUWKHDFWLYLWLHVRI-DSDQHVHPXOWLQDWLRQDOVDQGZDVSUHSDUHGWRLQWHUGLFW FDSLWDORXWÁRZVZKHQLWVDZÀW)LUVWRIDOOFDVHE\FDVHVFUHHQLQJRILQYHVWPHQWV LQVSHFLDOO\GHVLJQDWHGVHFWRUVVXFKDVÀVKLQJSHDUOFXOWXULQJEDQNLQJDQGÀQDQFH FRQWLQXHGXQDEDWHG,QIDFWQHZVHFWRUVVXFKDVOHDWKHUDQGWH[WLOHVZHUHDGGHGWR WKLVOLVWLQWKHPLGVWRIWKH´OLEHUDOL]DWLRQµFDPSDLJQLQ7KHQHZUHVWULFWLRQV LQWH[WLOHVZHUHVSXUUHGE\WKHUDSLGVXUJHLQWH[WLOH2)',DQGWKLVUDLVHGFRQFHUQ DPRQJ 0,7, EXUHDXFUDWV DERXW WKH SRWHQWLDO GLVUXSWLYH HIIHFWV RI UHYHUVH LPSRUWV IURPWKLVRXWJRLQJLQYHVWPHQWLQWKHIXWXUH6ROLV ,QGHHGWKH0,7,PDGHLW FOHDUWKDWLWZDVSUHSDUHGWRFORVHO\PRQLWRULQYHVWPHQWVDEURDG´ZKHUHWKHUHLVWKH FRQFHUQWKDWWKH\ZLOOH[HUWDQHJDWLYHLQÁXHQFHRQWKHGRPHVWLFHFRQRP\µ0,7, 5HÁHFWLQJ WKLV UHJXODWRU\ ]HDO WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW TXLFNO\ LQWHUGLFWHG FDSLWDORXWÁRZVLQZKHQWKHRLOVKRFNFRPSURPLVHGWKHEDODQFHRISD\PHQWV 7KH02)LVVXHGDEODQNHWUHVWUDLQWRQDOORYHUVHDVLQYHVWPHQWSURMHFWVH[FHSWLQ SULRULW\DUHDVVXFKDVHQHUJ\7KHUHLPSRVLWLRQRIFRQWUROVRQFDSLWDORXWÁRZVLV DOVRLQWHUHVWLQJEHFDXVHLWEURXJKWWRWKHVXUIDFHWKHLQWHQVHFRPSHWLWLRQEHWZHHQ WKH02)DQGWKH0,7,WRFRQVROLGDWHWKHLUMXULVGLFWLRQLQWKLVFUXFLDODUHD7KH 0,7,UHVSRQGHGWRWKHRLOVKRFNZLWKDEROGDWWHPSWWRVWUHQJWKHQLWVDGPLQLVWUDWLYHJXLGDQFHRYHU-DSDQHVH2)',WKURXJKWKHFUHDWLRQRID&RXQFLORQ2YHUVHDV %XVLQHVV$FWLYLWLHVDQGWKURXJKLWVSURSRVDOWRKDYHWKH-DSDQHVH([SRUW²,PSRUW
Solis %DQNÀQDQFH2)',SURMHFWVWKDWPHWWKH0,7,·VSROLF\JXLGHOLQHV2QFHPRUH OLQHVRIEXUHDXFUDWLFMXULVGLFWLRQZHUHDWVWDNHVLQFHWKH([SRUW²,PSRUW%DQNZDV XQGHUWKHVXUYHLOODQFHRIWKH02)QRWWKH0,7,7KH02)EORFNHGWKH0,7,·V DWWHPSWWRHVWDEOLVKSROLF\JXLGHOLQHVRQ2)',DQGWRFRQWUROSUHIHUHQWLDOÀQDQFH IRUVHOHFWHGRYHUVHDVSURMHFWV6ROLV 7KHJUDGXDOOLIWLQJRIFDSLWDOFRQWUROVRQLQZDUG)',DOVRSURGXFHGOLWWOHJHQXLQHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ-XVWDV0,7,·VWZLQELOOVRIZRXOGKDYHDFWXDOO\LQFUHDVHG WKH JRYHUQPHQW·V LQWHUYHQWLRQ SRZHUV VR WKH ÀUVW RI WKHVH UHJXODWRU\ UHIRUPV LQ IDFW FXUWDLOHG WKH FKDQFHV RI IRUHLJQ 01&V JDLQLQJ DFFHVV WR WKH -DSDQHVH PDUNHW3URPLVLQJWRDGRSWDEURDGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSDFNDJHWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW LQ HOLPLQDWHG WKH RQH YHQXH WKDW IRUHLJQ 01&V KDG PRVW DFWLYHO\ XVHGWRHVWDEOLVKWKHPVHOYHVLQ-DSDQWKH\HQEDVHGFRPSDQLHV6WDUWLQJLQ WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDGWROHUDWHGPDMRULW\RZQHGIRUHLJQDIÀOLDWHVZLWKRXW IRUPDOO\VXEMHFWLQJWKHPWRWKH),/DSSURYDOSURFHVVSURYLGHGWKHVHFRPSDQLHV SOHGJHGWRUHLQYHVWWKHLUSURÀWVLQ-DSDQ)RUHLJQ01&VUHDFWHGHQWKXVLDVWLFDOO\ WRWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIPRUHGLUHFWO\FRQWUROOLQJWKHLURSHUDWLRQVLQ-DSDQDQGGHVSLWH WKHUHPLWWDQFHUHVWULFWLRQVWKH\TXLFNO\HVWDEOLVKHG\HQFRPSDQLHV'XULQJWKHVL[ \HDUVRIRSHUDWLRQRIWKLVSURJUDPIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVRSHQHGRIWKHVHVSHFLDO HQWHUSULVHVIRUDWRWDOLQYHVWPHQWRI86PLOOLRQDQGWKLVUHSUHVHQWHGPRUH WKDQGRXEOHWKHDPRXQWRI)',LQÁRZVGXULQJWKHV(QFDUQDWLRQDQG0DVRQ ² 6RPH RI WKH KLJKSURÀ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
From iron doors to paper screens
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² 7KHWKUXVWRIWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQHIIRUWIRU,)',GXULQJWKHVH\HDUVZDVWRPRYH WKHLQGXVWULHVIURPRQHFDWHJRU\JURXSWRDQRWKHUDVGRPHVWLFHQWHUSULVHVDFKLHYHG LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV DQG FRXOG FRPSHWH ZLWK IRUHLJQ ULYDOV7KH FODVVLÀFDWLRQ RI WKH LQGXVWULHV ZDV DW WKH GLVFUHWLRQ RI 0,7, EXUHDXFUDWV DQG WKH\ ZHUHYHU\FDXWLRXVLQ´JUDGXDWLQJµDQLQGXVWU\WRWKHRSHQLQYHVWPHQWUHJLPH)RU LQVWDQFHLQVRPHRIWKHÀUVWLQGXVWULHVRSHQHGWRZKROO\RZQHGIRUHLJQFDSLWDO WKHUHZDVPLQLPDOIRUHLJQLQWHUHVWRUH[SHUWLVHVXFKDVVDNHEUHZLQJDQGZRRG VDQGDOV%DLOH\et al ,QVRPHFDVHV-DSDQHVHHQWHUSULVHVSUHVVHGIRU DFFHOHUDWHG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ VSHFLÀF VHFWRUV LQ ZKLFK WKH\ GHHPHG DQ DOOLDQFH ZLWK IRUHLJQ PXOWLQDWLRQDOV DGYDQWDJHRXV 7KH EHVWNQRZQ H[DPSOH ZDV WKH VXUSULVHDQQRXQFHPHQWPDGHE\0LWVXELVKLLQ²WKHVRFDOOHG´0LWVXELVKL VKRFNµ²WKDWLWKDGFRQFOXGHGVHFUHWQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWK&KU\VOHUIRUDMRLQWYHQWXUHLQ-DSDQ(QFDUQDWLRQDQG0DVRQ
Solis
%XUHDXFUDWLFLQÀJKWLQJDQGVWUXFWXUDOUHIRUPRI01& regulation The 1980 Foreign Exchange Control Law 7KHNH\H[SODQDWLRQWKDWÀWVWKHIDFWVDERXW-DSDQ·VODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ)',LVWKDW UHODWHG WR EXUHDXFUDWLF LQÀJKWLQJ ZKLFK FRQWLQXHG XQDEDWHG$IWHU WKH ÁRS GLVFXVVLRQV RQ UHYDPSLQJ WKH )(&/ GLG QRW UHHPHUJH XQWLO WKH ODWH V 2QFH PRUH-DSDQHVHRIÀFLDOV²LQWKLVFDVH3ULPH0LQLVWHU)XNXGD²GHHPHGUHIRUPRI WKHUHJXODWRU\UHJLPHRYHULQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVDFWLRQVWREHDXVHIXOVWUDWHJ\WRGHÁHFW SUHVVXUHIURP-DSDQ·VWUDGHSDUWQHUV7KHVWLPXOXVWRUHFRQVLGHU)(&/UHIRUPGLG RULJLQDWHLQgaiatsu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Á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ÀFDWLRQV\VWHP IRU)',2QWKHVXUIDFH-DSDQDSSHDUHGWRKDYHIXOÀOOHGLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWV WR WKRURXJK GHUHJXODWLRQ RI FURVVERUGHU ÀQDQFLDO WUDQVDFWLRQV DQG IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW LQ SDUWLFXODU +RZHYHU WKH -DSDQHVH EXUHDXFUDF\ GLG QRWORVHLQDQ\ZD\LWVEURDGDXWKRULW\WRLQWHUYHQHDQGUHUHJXODWHFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQVDQG01&RSHUDWLRQV)RULQVWDQFHWKH02)HQMR\HGVZHHSLQJDXWKRULW\ WRLQWHUGLFWFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQVWKDWWKHPLQLVWU\FRQVLGHUHGKDUPHGWKHEDODQFH RISD\PHQWVVXGGHQO\DIIHFWHGWKHQDWLRQDOFXUUHQF\RULQWHUQDWLRQDOH[FKDQJH UDWHVRUUHVXOWHGLQODUJHFDSLWDORXWÁRZV,QWKHDUHDRI)',WKHUHZDVZLGHURRP IRU EXUHDXFUDWLF GLVFUHWLRQ 7KH QHZO\ LQWURGXFHG SULRU QRWLÀFDWLRQ V\VWHP IRU ERWK,)',DQG2)',DZDUGHGWKH02)DQGDQ\RWKHUUHOHYDQWPLQLVWULHVVXFKDV WKH0,7,WZHQW\GD\VWRH[DPLQHWKHSURSRVHGLQYHVWPHQWSURMHFW7KH-DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQWFRXOGVXVSHQG)',SURMHFWVZKHQHYHULWGHHPHGWKDWWKH\DIIHFWHG GRPHVWLFRULQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFLDOPDUNHWVRUKDUPHGWKHEXVLQHVVDFWLYLWLHVRI
From iron doors to paper screens
FHUWDLQ LQGXVWULDO VHFWRUV RU WKH VPRRWK SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH QDWLRQDO HFRQRP\ 0,7, ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHEURDGFULWHULDMXVWLI\LQJJRYHUQPHQWLQWHUYHQWLRQWKHQHZO\ ´OLEHUDOL]HGµ)(&/DGRSWHGVHYHUDOVSHFLDOUHVWULFWLRQVIRULQZDUGDQGRXWZDUG IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW,QWKHFDVHRI2)',SULRUDSSURYDOZDVVWLOOPDQGDWRU\IRUWKHVSHFLDOO\UHVWULFWHGVHFWRUVZKLFKLQFOXGHGWKHXVXDOVXVSHFWVVXFKDV ÀVKHULHVSHDUOVOHDWKHUWH[WLOHVZHDSRQVGUXJVEDQNLQJDQGVHFXULWLHV,QWKH DUHDRI,)',WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWFUHDWHGDVRSKLVWLFDWHGUHJXODWRU\V\VWHP WREORFNXQGHVLUDEOHIRUHLJQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\)LUVWRIDOO LQ VSHFLDO VHFWRUV LQFOXGLQJ IRUHVWU\ ÀVKHULHV DQG DJULFXOWXUH OHDWKHU PLQLQJ DQGSHWUROHXPQRIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWZDVDOORZHG1H[WWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWZHQWVRIDUDVWROLVWVSHFLÀFFRPSDQLHVLQZKLFKIRUHLJQRZQHUVKLSFRXOG QRW H[FHHG SHUFHQW RI WRWDO VKDUHV$OWKRXJK WKH QXPEHU RI FRPSDQLHV ZDV VPDOODWRWDORIHOHYHQ WKHVHHQWHUSULVHVZHUHNH\SOD\HUVLQVHQVLWLYHVHFWRUVRI WKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\QDPHO\RLOGHIHQVHDQGKLJKWHFKQRORJ\+DPDGD )LQDOO\WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWFDUHIXOO\FUDIWHGUHJXODWLRQVWKDWZRXOG DXWKRUL]HLWWRUHUHJXODWH,)',ZKHQHYHUIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVDLPHGWRRSHQDVXEVLGLDU\LQ-DSDQJUHHQÀHOGLQYHVWPHQW RUWRH[SDQGWKHLUFRQWURORYHU-DSDQHVH HQWHUSULVHVIRUH[DPSOHE\DFTXLULQJSHUFHQWHTXLW\RZQHUVKLS %DLOH\et al 7KH FDVH RI 0LQHEHD LOOXVWUDWHV ZHOO WKH UHJXODWRU\ ]HDO RI WKH 0,7, RYHU ,)',GHVSLWHIRUPDOSOHGJHVWROLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,QWKHVSULQJRIWZRIRUHLJQ PXOWLQDWLRQDOV 7UDIDOJDU +ROGLQJV DQG *OHQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO SOF YLHG WR DFTXLUH 0LQHEHD D QDWLRQDO OHDGHU LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI PLQLDWXUH EHDULQJV 7KH 0,7, VWDOOHG WKH UHYLHZ RI WKH SURSRVHG LQYHVWPHQW IRU IRXU PRQWKV LQVWHDG RI WKH WZHQW\GD\VFRQWHPSODWHGE\WKHODZIRUURXWLQHLQYHVWPHQWSURSRVDOV JLYLQJ 0LQHEHD HQRXJK WLPH WR SODFH VXIÀFLHQW VKDUHV DPRQJ keiretsu partners and DYRLGWKHKRVWLOHWDNHRYHU%DLOH\et al² 7KH0,7,·VDFWLRQVEHWUD\HG QRWRQO\LWVGLVOLNHRIIRUHLJQWDNHRYHUVEXWDOVRLWVGLVOLNHRIWKHIDFWWKDWWKHVH 01&V KDG QRW DSSURDFKHG LW prior WR WKHLU QRWLÀFDWLRQ LQ RUGHU WR LQIRUPDOO\ GLVFXVV WKHLU LQYHVWPHQW SODQV7KH UHVXOW RYHUDOO ZDV WKDW IRUPDO GHUHJXODWLRQ RIWKHODZEURXJKWLQFUHDVHGHPSKDVLVRQLQIRUPDOFRQWUROWKURXJKDGPLQLVWUDWLYHJXLGDQFHIRUERWK,)',DQG2)',7KLVDGPLQLVWUDWLYHJXLGDQFHFHQWHUHGRQ SUHQRWLÀFDWLRQ QHJRWLDWLRQV 6DIDULDQ TXRWHV D 0,7, RIÀFLDO FDQGLGO\H[SODLQLQJWKLVLQIRUPDOSROLF\RIFRQWURO´1RDSSOLFDWLRQIRUIRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQWKDVHYHUEHHQWXUQHGGRZQIRUPDOO\:KDWKDSSHQVLVWKDWDIRUHLJQ LQYHVWRULV¶DGYLVHGµ·WRZLWKGUDZWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRUPRUHRIWHQWRPDNHDPHQGPHQWVLIWKHIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUGLVDJUHHVWKHDSSOLFDWLRQWKHQVLPSO\EHFRPHV ¶SHQGLQJ·µ 7KH VDPH ZDV WUXH IRU 2)', QR DSSOLFDWLRQV ZHUH WXUQHG GRZQ HLWKHUEXW-DSDQHVHHQWHUSULVHVURXWLQHO\FRQWDFWHGWKHEXUHDXFUDF\SULRUWRWKHLU QRWLÀFDWLRQLQRUGHUWRDYRLGSUREOHPV 7RVXPXSEXUHDXFUDWLFSROLWLFVZHUHFHQWUDOWRWKHÀUVWUHIRUPRIWKH)(&/ LQ'HVSLWHLWVQRPLQDODGKHUHQFHWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOSULQFLSOHVRIIUHHFDSLWDO PRYHPHQWVWKH02)DQGWKH0,7,FDUHIXOO\GHVLJQHGWKHODZWRPDLQWDLQWKH MXULVGLFWLRQDOVWDWXVTXRSURWHFWNH\FOLHQWVSULQFLSDOO\WKH)25(;EDQNVDQG
Solis -DSDQHVHHQWHUSULVHVSUH\WRKRVWLOHWDNHRYHUVDQGSHUSHWXDWHH[WHQVLYHLILQIRUPDOEXUHDXFUDWLFFRQWURORYHURXWZDUGDQGLQZDUGGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWV One-sided amendment of the law: liberalization of IFDI 7UDGHWHQVLRQVEHWZHHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG-DSDQSHDNHGLQWKHODWHVDQG HDUO\V'LVFRXUDJHGE\WKHUHVWULFWHGDFFHVVIRU$PHULFDQSURGXFWVLQWKH -DSDQHVHPDUNHWWKH%XVKDGPLQLVWUDWLRQODXQFKHGDQDPELWLRXVURXQGRIELODWHUDO WUDGH QHJRWLDWLRQV WKDW ZRXOG WDUJHW WKH VWUXFWXUDO EDUULHUV KLQGHULQJ$PHULFDQ H[SRUWV $PRQJ WKHVH VWUXFWXUDO REVWDFOHV WR WUDGH WKH $PHULFDQ GHOHJDWLRQ LGHQWLÀHGPHDJHULQZDUGGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW3DUWLFXODUO\LQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQVHFWRU WKH$PHULFDQQHJRWLDWLQJWHDPHVWDEOLVKHGDGLUHFWOLQNEHWZHHQLQYHVWPHQWDQG WUDGHDQGDUJXHGWKDW-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWUHJXODWLRQVVXFKDVWKH/DUJH5HWDLO 6WRUH LQ SDUWLFXODU EXW UHPDLQLQJ FRQWUROV LQ )(&/ DV ZHOO GLVFRXUDJHG )', DQGWKHUHIRUHKDGDQHJDWLYHLPSDFWRQWKHVDOHVRI86JRRGVWKURXJK$PHULFDQ VXEVLGLDULHV6FKRSSD/LQFROQ ,QRUGHUWRGHÁHFWVRPHRIWKHSUHVVXUHRQWKHWUDGHIURQWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWDGRSWHGVHYHUDOPHDVXUHVWRHQFRXUDJH)',,QDGGLWLRQWRSUHIHUHQWLDO ORDQV RIIHUHG E\ WKH -DSDQ 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN WKH 02) RIIHUHG WD[ EHQHÀWV H[WHQGLQJWKHORVVFDUU\IRUZDUGSURYLVLRQVLQLQFRPHWD[ WKH-DSDQ([WHUQDO 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ -(752 RSHQHG EXVLQHVV VXSSRUW FHQWHUV WR DVVLVW IRUHLJQ HQWHUSULVHVDQGWKH0,7,FUHDWHGWKH)RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQ'HYHORSPHQW &RUSRUDWLRQ ),1' /LQFROQ ² ),1' KHOSV IRUHLJQ HQWHUSULVHV LGHQWLI\SRWHQWLDOSDUWQHUVRUFRPSDQLHVIRUDFTXLVLWLRQ0RVWLPSRUWDQWO\VLQFH $PHULFDQ01&VDQGWKH$PHULFDQ&KDPEHURI&RPPHUFHLQ-DSDQKDGVLQJOHG RXWWKHSUHQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPDVDVRXUFHRIGLVFUHWLRQDU\SRZHUWRGHWHU$PHULFDQ LQYHVWPHQWVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWSURSRVHGDFKDQJHWRWKH)(&/WKDWZRXOG DIIHFWRQO\,)',,QWKHODZZDVDPHQGHGWRDSRVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHP IRUIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQ7KHUHJLPHRQ2)',ZDVOHIWLQWDFW,QNHHSLQJ ZLWKP\DUJXPHQWLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRQRWHWKDWWKLVOLPLWHGUHYLHZRI)(&/DIIHFWLQJRQO\LQZDUGLQYHVWPHQWV ZDVHDVLHUWRFDUU\RXWVLQFHLWGLGQRWLQWUXGHRQWKH 02)·VWXUIDQGWKHUHIRUHWKHWUDGLWLRQDOEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVSXWHVRYHUMXULVGLFWLRQDO ERXQGDULHVGLGQRWHPHUJH 7KHLPSDFWRIWKHSRVWQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPZDVWHPSHUHGZLWKDOLVWRIH[FHSWLRQV ZKHQ SULRU QRWLFH ZRXOG VWLOO EH UHTXLUHG 5HÁHFWLQJ SDVW SUDFWLFH WKHVH H[FHSWLRQVZHUHZRUGHGYHU\EURDGO\LQRUGHUWRHQKDQFHJRYHUQPHQWGLVFUHWLRQ )RUH[DPSOHLQYHVWPHQWVWKDWWKUHDWHQQDWLRQDOVHFXULW\WKHSXEOLFRUGHURUWKH KHDOWKRIWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\DUHVXEMHFWWRSULRUQRWLÀFDWLRQ0RUHRYHUWKH VSHFLDOUHVWULFWHGVHFWRUVVXFKDVDJULFXOWXUHRLODQGOHDWKHUDOVRRSHUDWHXQGHU WKH SULRU QRWLFH V\VWHP *HLVW 7KH UHIRUP RI ,)', UHJXODWLRQV WKHUHIRUHLVFRQVLVWHQWZLWKSUHYLRXVOLEHUDOL]DWLRQFDPSDLJQVWKDWKLJKOLJKWHGWKH FHQWUDOLW\RIWKHVWDWHWRWKHSURFHVVHVWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWVRXJKWWRDSSHDVH LQWHUQDWLRQDO SUHVVXUH ZLWK IRUPDO FRPPLWPHQWV WR GHUHJXODWLRQ EXW VWURYH WR GHIHQGDVPXFKDVSRVVLEOHEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQRYHU)',FRQWURO 1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ WKH DGRSWLRQ RI WKH SRVWQRWLÀFDWLRQ V\VWHP RU WKH RWKHU
From iron doors to paper screens
PHDVXUHVLQWURGXFHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWWRHQFRXUDJHIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVWRWDO)', LQÁRZVLQ-DSDQUHPDLQHGYHU\PRGHVWDVQRWHGLQWKHÀUVWVHFWLRQRIWKLVFKDSWHU /LQFROQ EHOLHYHVWKDWWKHSURPRWLRQPHDVXUHVRIWKHHDUO\VGLG QRWWDFNOHWKHUHDOEDUULHUVWRLQYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQ 1HLWKHU WKH LQWHQVLYH ELODWHUDO 6WUXFWXUDO ,PSHGLPHQWV ,QLWLDWLYH 6,, WDONV SXUVXHGE\WKH%XVKDGPLQLVWUDWLRQQRUWKHSDUWRIWKH)UDPHZRUNWDONVRI WKH&OLQWRQDGPLQLVWUDWLRQIRFXVHGRQLPSURYLQJWKHFOLPDWHIRULQYHVWPHQW SURGXFHGPXFKRIUHDOVXEVWDQFHLQ-DSDQHVHLQYHVWPHQWSROLF\0RVWRIZKDW WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVGRQHPXVWXQIRUWXQDWHO\EHKRQHVWO\ODEHOHG DVWULYLDODQGLUUHOHYDQW ,QGHHGWKHUHDVRQVIRUWKHORZOHYHOVRILQZDUGLQYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQDUHVWLOO KRWO\GHEDWHG6RPHVFKRODUVEHOLHYHWKDWPRVWJRYHUQPHQWFRQWUROVKDYHEHHQ UHQGHUHGKDUPOHVVRYHUWKH\HDUVDQGWKHUHIRUHWKDWWKHUHDVRQVIRUOLPLWHGIRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQPXVWOLHHOVHZKHUH:HLQVWHLQ PDNHVWKLVDUJXPHQW DQGVXJJHVWVWKDWRQHRIWKHPRVWSRZHUIXOGHWHUUHQWVIRUIRUHLJQHQWHUSULVHVWR UHORFDWHLQ-DSDQLVWKHLUGLIÀFXOW\LQWDSSLQJZHOOWUDLQHGKXPDQFDSLWDO3DWWHUQV RI-DSDQHVHLQGXVWULDORUJDQL]DWLRQDUHDOVRIUHTXHQWO\PHQWLRQHGDVDQLPSRUWDQW EDUULHUWRLQZDUG)',FURVVVKDUHKROGLQJFRQWLQXHGWRPDNHFRUSRUDWHWDNHRYHUV GLIÀFXOW IRU ERWK IRUHLJQ DQG -DSDQHVH HQWHUSULVHV GXULQJ WKH V :HLQVWHLQ /LQFROQ +RZHYHUVRPHDQDO\VWVSRLQWWRWKHFRQWLQXHGLPSDFWRI JRYHUQPHQWUHJXODWLRQVDQGLQGXVWULDOUHVWULFWLRQV*HLVW DUJXHVWKDW WKHSRVWQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPPDGHQRGLIIHUHQFHVLQFHIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVVWLOOKDG WRHQJDJHLQSUHQRWLÀFDWLRQFRQVXOWDWLRQVZLWKWKHUHOHYDQWPLQLVWULHVDQGWKH %DQNRI-DSDQFRQGLWLRQHGLWVDFFHSWDQFHRIWKHQRWLÀFDWLRQGRFXPHQWRQSULRU DSSURYDOIURPWKHEXUHDXFUDF\0RUHRYHUDSOHWKRUDRILQGXVWU\OHYHOUHJXODWLRQV VWLOOFLUFXPVFULEHG,)',LQWKHHDUO\VVXFKDVUHVWULFWLRQVRQEURDGFDVWLQJ DQGEDQNLQJ*HLVW:DNDVXJL $PRUHWKRURXJKOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRILQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFLDOWUDQVDFWLRQVZDVQHYHUWKHOHVVVRRQIRUWKFRPLQJ 7KH%LJ%DQJFDSLWDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQIRUWKHWZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\ ,Q-DSDQDGRSWHGLWVPRVWDPELWLRXVSURMHFWLQGRPHVWLFDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDO ÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWKH%LJ%DQJ7KHGULYLQJIRUFHEHKLQGWKLVEROGDWWHPSW DWUHIRUPZDVWKHIHDUVKDUHGE\SROLF\PDNHUVDQGPDUNHWSDUWLFLSDQWVWKDWDIWHU DGHFDGHRIHFRQRPLFVWDJQDWLRQDQGWKHZRUVWEDQNLQJFULVLVVLQFHWKHSRVWZDU UHFRYHU\ -DSDQ FRXOG EH OHIW EHKLQG LQ D FUXFLDO DUHD RI WKH ZRUOG HFRQRP\ LQWHUQDWLRQDO ÀQDQFH 5HYHDOLQJO\ WKH DUFKLWHFWV RI WKH %LJ %DQJ SRLQWHG WR )(&/ UHIRUP DV WKH HVVHQWLDO SUHFRQGLWLRQ IRU HIIHFWLYH GHUHJXODWLRQ RI FURVV ERUGHUFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQV7KH&RPPLWWHHRQ)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH LQIDFW FRQWUDGLFWHGSUHYLRXVRIÀFLDOVWDWHPHQWVZKHQLWRSHQO\DFNQRZOHGJHGWKHPDMRU VKRUWFRPLQJV RI WKH )(&/ LQ OLEHUDOL]LQJ FDSLWDO PDUNHWV 7ZR HOHPHQWV RI WKH )(&/ ODZ LQ SDUWLFXODU QRWHG WKH &RPPLWWHH UHSRUW KDG DFWHG DJDLQVW IUHHDQGIDLUFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQVWKHSULRUQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPIRUPRVWIRUHLJQ
Solis FXUUHQF\GHDOLQJVDQGWKHV\VWHPRIGHVLJQDWHG)25(;EDQNV7KHVHSLOODUVRI WKH ROG UHJLPH GLPLQLVKHG FRPSHWLWLRQ LQ FXUUHQF\ WUDQVDFWLRQV PDNLQJ WKHP PRUHFRVWO\ VORZHGGRZQWKHSDFHRIFURVVERUGHUGHDOLQJVDQGLQWURGXFHGWKH SRVVLELOLW\RIEXUHDXFUDWLFLQWHUYHQWLRQWKURXJKWKHSULRUZDUQLQJUHTXLUHPHQW 7KHYLHZVRIWKH)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH&RPPLWWHHSHUYDGHGWKHUHIRUPRI)25(; OHJLVODWLRQ7KHQHZ)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH/DZ)(/ HIIHFWLYHDVRI$SULOGLG PDUNDWXUQLQJSRLQWLQWKHKLVWRU\RIFDSLWDOÁRZOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQ1RWRQO\ GLGWKHUHIRUPVSURFHHGH[SHGLWLRXVO\EXWHYHQPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\WKLVGHUHJXODWLRQ FDPSDLJQ GLG DZD\ ZLWK WKH WZR FHQWUDO IHDWXUHV RI WKH IRUPHU UHJLPH RQ FDSLWDOPRYHPHQWVWKHV\VWHPRISRVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQZDVH[WHQGHGWRDOOFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQVDQGWKHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV\VWHPZDVWHUPLQDWHG :K\ GLG WKH 02) DQG WKH )25(; EDQNV IDLO WR GHIHQG WKHLU VSHFLDO VWDWXV LQ WKHODWHVZKHUHDVLQSUHYLRXVURXQGVRIGHUHJXODWLRQWKH\KDGDOZD\VVXFFHHGLQXSKROGLQJWKLVV\VWHP"&OHDUO\WKHSURYLVLRQVRI)(/GLGQRWUHÁHFWD FKDQJHRIKHDUWRQWKHSDUWRIHLWKHUWKH02)RUWKHEDQNV,QZKHQWKH WHUPLQDWLRQRIWKHV\VWHPZDVÀUVWVXJJHVWHGDVSDUWRIWKH%LJ%DQJSDFNDJHDQ LQGXVWU\UHSUHVHQWDWLYHDEKRUUHGWKHLGHD´IRUHLJQH[FKDQJHFRQWUROLVRYHUVHHQ E\VRSKLVWLFDWHGSURIHVVLRQDOV7KLVSURFHVVKDUGO\ZLOOEHXQGHUVWRRGE\OD\PHQµ TXRWHGLQ&KR\ $QGWKH02)FRQWLQXHGWRGHIHQGWKHGHVLJQDWHGEDQN V\VWHPDUJXLQJWKDWWKH)25(;EDQNVSHUIRUPHGTXDVLSXEOLFIXQFWLRQVVXFKDV UHSRUWLQJ)25(;WUDQVDFWLRQVWRWKH%DQNRI-DSDQFKHFNLQJWKDWFXUUHQF\GHDOLQJVPHWJRYHUQPHQWOHJDOVWDQGDUGVDQGLPSOHPHQWLQJHPHUJHQF\UHVWULFWLRQV RQFURVVERUGHUFDSLWDOÁRZV7DQLNDZD ,QIDFWVZHHSLQJOLEHUDOL]DWLRQZDVQRZSRVVLEOHEHFDXVHWKH02)DQGWKH EDQNVZHUHVRSROLWLFDOO\ZHDNHQHGLQWKHDIWHUPDWKRIWKHEDQNLQJFULVLVWKDWWKH PLQLVWU\FRXOGQRWZDJHLWVWUDGLWLRQDOEDWWOHWRSURWHFWEXUHDXFUDWLFWXUIÀ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·VUHSXWDWLRQKDGVXIIHUHG VHYHUHO\GXHWRLWVSRRUPRQLWRULQJRIWKHEDQNVZKLFKFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHEDOORRQLQJQRQSHUIRUPLQJORDQVDQGWRDVHULHVRIFRUUXSWLRQVFDQGDOV/DXUHQFH 3DUWLWLRQRIWKHPLQLVWU\LWVHOIZDVRQWKHDJHQGDDQGWKHWDVNRIPRQLWRULQJWKH EDQNLQJVHFWRUZDVLQWKHHQGWUDQVIHUUHGWRDQHZERG\WKH)LQDQFLDO6XSHUYLVRU\ $JHQF\ LQ WKH IDWHIXO VSULQJ RI 0RUHRYHU LW ZDV KDUG IRU WKH 02) WR GHIHQG HQWU\ EDUULHUV WR )25(; PDUNHWV DIWHU WKH PRYH IRU GHVHJPHQWLQJ WKH ÀQDQFLDOLQGXVWU\KDGJDLQHGPRPHQWXPWKURXJKWKHUHIRUPVRIWKHHDUO\V DQGWKHRQJRLQJIRUPXODWLRQRIWKH%LJ%DQJOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSDFNDJH 2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDQGUHÁHFWLQJQHZSROLWLFDOUHDOLWLHVWKHIRHVRIWKH)25(; EDQNV\VWHPZHUHZHOOUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKH&RPPLWWHHRQ)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH*HQHUDO
From iron doors to paper screens
WUDGLQJ KRXVHV VHFXULWLHV ÀUPV DQG PDQXIDFWXULQJ HQWHUSULVHV ZLWK H[WHQVLYH LQWHUQDWLRQDO GHDOLQJV KDG ORQJ UHVHQWHG WKHLU H[FOXVLRQ IURP )25(; WUDQVDFWLRQV &RPSDQLHV UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKHVH LQGXVWULHV VXFK DV 0LWVXL %XVVDQ ,WRFKX 1(&1LVVDQDQGVRRQSUHVVHGHDUO\RQLQWKHGHOLEHUDWLRQVRIWKHFRPPLWWHH IRUWKHDEDQGRQPHQWRIWKH)25(;EDQNV\VWHP,QWKHHQGWKH\VXFFHHGHGLQ LQWURGXFLQJWKHUHYROXWLRQDU\SULQFLSOHWKDWERWKEDQNDQGQRQEDQNPDUNHWSDUWLFLSDQWVVKRXOGIUHHO\HQJDJHLQFURVVERUGHUFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQV´Gaitamehô no kaisei sagyô ga iyoiyo gutaika eµ>3UHSDUDWLRQVIRUWKHUHYLVLRQRIWKH)RUHLJQ ([FKDQJH/DZDUHEHFRPLQJPRUHFRQFUHWH@Kinyû Zaisei Jijô6HSWHPEHU S7DQLNDZD 7KHQHZ)(/DOVREURXJKWDERXWLPSRUWDQWFKDQJHVLQWKHUHJXODWLRQRIIRUHLJQ GLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW7KHSRVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPZDVQRZH[WHQGHGDVZHOOWR 2)',DQGIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHLQWKHSRVWZDUHUDWKHQXPEHURIVSHFLDOVHFWRUVVXEMHFWWRVSHFLDOUHVWULFWLRQVLQWKHLURYHUVHDVLQYHVWPHQWVZDVUHGXFHG/LEHUDOL]HG VHFWRUVLQFOXGHGEDQNLQJSHDUOFXOWXUHDQGÀEHUPDQXIDFWXULQJ,QWKHDUHDRI ,)', VRPH UHJXODWLRQV ZHUH HDVHG )RU H[DPSOH IRUHLJQ 01&V LQYHVWLQJ LQ PLQLQJ RU DFTXLULQJ SHUFHQW RU PRUH RI D -DSDQHVH FRPSDQ\·V VWRFNV ZLOO QRZEHQHÀWIURPWKHSRVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHP'HVSLWHWKHSURJUHVVWRZDUG OLEHUDOL]DWLRQZLWKWKHDGRSWLRQRIWKHQHZ)(/LWLVLPSRUWDQWWRNHHSLQPLQG WKDWQHLWKHURIWKHWZRHFRQRPLFPLQLVWULHVLVSUHSDUHGWRFRPSOHWHO\JLYHXSLWV PRQLWRULQJ RI KLJK SURÀOH )', SURMHFWV$V H[SODLQHG E\ DQ RIÀFLDO RI 02)·V ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )LQDQFH %XUHDX WRXJKHU PRQLWRULQJ RI IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW ERWKLQZDUGDQGRXWZDUGLQFHUWDLQLQGXVWULHVLVZHOOLQJUDLQHGLQJRYHUQPHQW SROLF\8UDQLVKL %XUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQLVVDIHJXDUGHGLQWKHQHZ)(/ VLQFHWKHHFRQRPLFEXUHDXFUDFLHVVWLOOHQMR\EURDGDXWKRULW\WRLQWHUGLFWVXVSHQG RUPRGLI\)',SURMHFWVWKDWKDUPWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\RUWKHFRQGLWLRQRIVSHFLÀF LQGXVWULHV Gaikoku Kawase oyobi Gaikoku Bôeki Hô >Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law@02)² 7KHSHQFKDQWWRPDNH)',ÁRZV FRQIRUP WR WKH QHHGV RI LQGXVWULDO SROLF\ UHPDLQV XQDEDWHG 0,7, IRU H[DPSOH RSHQO\GHIHQGVLWVSROLF\RIUHVWULFWLQJ2)',LQVRPHVHFWRUVLQRUGHUWRDYRLG D´ERRPHUDQJHIIHFWµRUVXUJHVRIUHYHUVHLPSRUWVUHJLRQDOGHLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ DQGEDQNUXSWF\RIVXEVLGLDULHVDQGRWKHUkeiretsuÀUPV
Conclusions: late liberalizers and capital mobility 7KLV FRQFOXGLQJ VHFWLRQ ZLOO SURYLGH D VXPPDU\ RI -DSDQ·V )', OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ ZKLFKWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHKDVSOD\HGDQGFRQWLQXHVWRSOD\DFHQWUDOUROH,WZLOODOVR WKHQKLJKOLJKWVRPHLQWHUHVWLQJFRQWUDVWVLQ-DSDQ·VDQG&KLQD·V)',SROLFLHV A recap on half a century of delayed FDI liberalization 7KLVFKDSWHUKDVKLJKOLJKWHGWKHLQWHUSOD\RILQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWVGRPHVWLF FRQVWLWXHQFLHVLQIDYRURUDJDLQVWIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGEXUHDXFUDWLF MXULVGLFWLRQDOEDWWOHVDVFHQWUDOHOHPHQWVLQH[SODLQLQJSURWUDFWHG)',GHUHJXODWLRQ RUZKDWWKLVYROXPHWHUPVODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQ7DEOHVXPPDUL]HVWKHORQJ
Defensive liberalization (1963–79) UHIRUPRI)(&/IDLOHG ,QVWHDGÀYHURXQGVRIGHUHJXODWLRQ
Period Extensive controls on FDI (1949–62) )(&/ ),/
$SSURYDOPRVWO\IRUSURMHFWVUHODWHGWRQDWXUDO UHVRXUFHVRUJHQHUDWLQJH[SRUWHDUQLQJV $WWHPSWVWRPRQLWRU-DSDQHVHFRPSDQLHVDIWHU LQYHVWPHQWDEURDGODUJHO\XQVXFFHVVIXO
$XWRPDWLFDSSURYDOIRUVPDOOVFDOH)',SURMHFWV JUDGXDOO\LQFUHDVHG 6SHFLDOVHFWRUVHJWH[WLOHV VWLOOVXEMHFWWRFDVHE\ FDVHVFUHHQLQJ
0LQRULW\IRUHLJQRZQHUVKLSUHTXLUHG 5HVWULFWLRQVRQUHPLWWDQFHVDEURDG
(OLPLQDWLRQRI\HQEDVHGFRPSDQLHV 6HJPHQWHGUHJLPHRQIRUHLJQRZQHUVKLS 9HU\JUDGXDOO\LQGXVWULHVZRXOGJUDGXDWHWRDIUHHU IRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWUHJLPH ,QVHFXULW\UHODWHGLQGXVWULHVIRUHLJQFDSLWDOLV EDUUHG
Rules on IFDI Rules on OFDI 3URKLELWLRQLQSULQFLSOHRIDOOLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVDFWLRQVXQOHVVVSHFLÀFDOO\DSSURYHG 0DQGDWRU\DSSURYDORIHDFK)',SURMHFWZLWKZLGHEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQDU\SRZHUV 0RQRSRO\RYHUFXUUHQF\WUDQVDFWLRQVLQWKHKDQGVRIDXWKRUL]HG)25(;EDQNV
Table 6.2 -DSDQ·VODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI)',
Substantial liberalization )(/
Attempts at structural liberalization UHIRUPRI)(&/
6WULQJHQWUHVWULFWLRQVIRUVSHFLDOVHFWRUVUHPDLQLQ SODFH
0LQLQJDQGDFTXLVLWLRQRISHUFHQWRUPRUHRI VWRFNVVKLIWHGWRSRVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQ
6RPHVHFWRUVJUDGXDWHGIURPWKHVSHFLDOFRQWUROV
)UHHGRPLQSULQFLSOHIRUDOOLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVDFWLRQVXQOHVVVSHFLÀFDOO\IRUELGGHQ 3RVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPIRU)',SURMHFWVEXWEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQUHPDLQVWKURXJKSUH QRWLÀFDWLRQQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKWKHEXUHDXFUDF\ (QGWRPRQRSRO\RYHUFXUUHQF\WUDQVDFWLRQVE\)25(;EDQNV
(OLPLQDWLRQRI),/ZLWKLWVPDLQSURYLVLRQV LQFRUSRUDWHGLQWR)(&/ 6SHFLDOVHFWRUVZKHUH)',LVEDUUHG 6SHFLÀFFRPSDQLHVZKHUH)',LVEDUUHG
)UHHGRPLQSULQFLSOHIRUDOOLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVDFWLRQVXQOHVVVSHFLÀFDOO\IRUELGGHQ 3ULRUQRWLÀFDWLRQV\VWHPIRU)',SURMHFWVEXWEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQUHPDLQVHVSHFLDOO\WKURXJK LQIRUPDOSUHQRWLÀFDWLRQQHJRWLDWLRQVZLWKWKHEXUHDXFUDF\ 0RQRSRO\RYHUFXUUHQF\WUDQVDFWLRQVLQWKHKDQGVRIDXWKRUL]HG)25(;EDQNV
Solis URDGWR)',OLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ-DSDQPRUHVSHFLÀFDOO\)RUPRVWRIWKHSDVWKDOIFHQWXU\ WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW KDV PDLQWDLQHG D JXDUGHG DWWLWXGH WRZDUG HQWHUSULVHV PRELOHDFURVVERUGHUVDQGLQWKHHDUO\SRVWZDUHUDLWHQMR\HGH[WUDRUGLQDU\SRZHUV WRVXSHUYLVHHDFK,)',DQG2)',SURMHFW,QWHUQDWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWVDFTXLUHGDIWHU -DSDQMRLQHGWKH2(&'DQG,0)ÀUVWSURGGHGWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWWRDWWHQXDWH WKLVH[WHQVLYHV\VWHPRIFRQWUROEXWEXUHDXFUDWLFFODVKHVRYHUMXULVGLFWLRQDOOLQHVDQG SURWHFWLRQRIFOLHQWLQWHUHVWVGRRPHGWKHFKDQFHVLQRIUHIRUPLQJWKH)(&/ ZKLFKZDVWKHNH\SLOODURIWKH-DSDQHVHFDSLWDOFRQWUROV\VWHP ,QVWHDGWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWUHVRUWHGWRGHIHQVLYHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWRGHÁHFW LQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHDQGWRDFFRPPRGDWHGHPDQGVIURPVRPH-DSDQHVHROLJRSROLVWVWRHQWHULQWRSURÀWDEOHYHQWXUHVZLWKIRUHLJQSDUWQHUV7KURXJKRXWWKHVDQG VWKH-DSDQHVHEXUHDXFUDF\HDVHGWKHUXOHVRQ)',LQDYHU\JUDGXDODQGPHDVXUHGZD\VXFKDVWKURXJKVORZO\LQFUHDVLQJWKHDPRXQWVIRUDXWRPDWLFDSSURYDORI 2)',RUDOORZLQJODUJHUIRUHLJQFDSLWDOSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQVSHFLÀ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ÀQDOO\ JUDGXDWHG IURP WKH 2)', VSHFLDO OLVW DQG PRVW ,)', SURMHFWV DUH QRZ VXEMHFW WRWKHSRVWIDFWRQRWLÀFDWLRQ$JDLQEXUHDXFUDWLFSROLWLFVH[SODLQVWKHQDWXUHRI UHFHQWFKDQJHVLQWKHFDSLWDOWUDQVDFWLRQVUHJLPH)RUUHDVRQVH[SODLQHGDERYH WKH 02) DQG WKH EDQNV· SROLWLFDO FORXW ZHUH DW DQ DOOWLPH ORZ DQG FRXOG QRW GHIHQGHIIHFWLYHO\DVLQWKHSDVWWKHLUVSHFLDOSUHURJDWLYHV:LWKWKH02)XQDEOH WRSLFNXSWKHÀJKWWKLVWLPHWUDGLWLRQDOWXUIEDWWOHVDQGSURWHFWLRQRINH\FOLHQWV ZHUHQRORQJHUREVWDFOHVLQWKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIFDSLWDOÁRZVDQGUHIRUPRIWKH )(&/SURFHHGHGH[SHGLWLRXVO\ 0HDVXUHGE\WKHRSHUDWLRQDOLQGLFDWRUVRIIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQVHW XSLQWKHÀUVWFKDSWHURIWKLVYROXPH-DSDQFOHDUO\KDVPDGHSURJUHVVLQRSHQLQJ LWV )', UHJLPH7KH FRXQWU\ KDV PRYHG DZD\ IURP PDQGDWRU\ DSSURYDO RI HDFK SURMHFW WR SUHQRWLÀFDWLRQ DQG UHFHQWO\ SRVWIDFWR UHSRUWLQJ RI ,)', DQG 2)',SURMHFWV/LNHZLVHWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVDEDQGRQHGLWVSUHYLRXV SUDFWLFHV RI UHVWULFWLQJ IRUHLJQ RZQHUVKLS VKDUHV LQ PRVW LQGXVWULHV RI OLPLWLQJ FDSLWDO UHPLWWDQFHV DEURDG RI DSSURYLQJ RQO\ 2)', SURMHFWV JHQHUDWLQJ H[SRUW UHYHQXH RU UDZ PDWHULDO VXSSO\ DQG RI GHPDQGLQJ WHFKQRORJLFDO WUDQVIHU IURP IRUHLJQ01&VDVDSUHFRQGLWLRQIRUMRLQWYHQWXUHDSSURYDO)LQDOO\WKHQXPEHURI
From iron doors to paper screens
VHFWRUVVXEMHFWWRVSHFLDOUHVWULFWLRQVLQRXWZDUGDQGLQZDUG)',KDVDOVRUHFHQWO\ GHFUHDVHG7KHUHLVKRZHYHURQHFUXFLDODUHDZKHUHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDVQRWEHHQ IRUWKFRPLQJ7KHUHKDVEHHQQRVLJQLÀ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ÀWVZHOOZLWKEURDGHUSDWWHUQVRI-DSDQHVHUHJXODWRU\UHIRUPLGHQWLÀHGE\ RWKHUV69RJHO WKHFHQWUDOUROHRIVWDWHDFWRUVWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGUHUHJXODWLRQDQGPRUHIXQGDPHQWDOO\WKHVWURQJGHVLUHWRSUHVHUYH WKHVRXUFHVRIEXUHDXFUDWLFGLVFUHWLRQDU\SRZHU Contrasts in the Japanese and Chinese experience 7KH6LQR-DSDQHVHFRPSDULVRQLVLQWULJXLQJQRWRQO\EHFDXVHWKHVHWZRFRXQWULHV KDYHIROORZHGDOPRVWRSSRVLWHIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWSROLFLHVEXWPRUHVLJQLÀFDQWO\ EHFDXVHWKHLUSROLF\FKRLFHVGHI\FRQYHQWLRQDOH[SHFWDWLRQV)LUVWRIDOOFRQVLGHU WKHEDVLFDSSURDFKRIHDFKFRXQWU\WRZDUGPXOWLQDWLRQDOLQYHVWPHQW$VWKH7DR FKDSWHULQWKLVERRNGHVFULEHV&KLQD²DVRFLDOLVWHFRQRP\LQWUDQVLWLRQ²ZDUPO\ ZHOFRPHV)',DQGVLQFHKDVLGHQWLÀHGIRUHLJQFDSLWDODVDSRZHUIXOHQJLQH RIJURZWK,QVKDUSFRQWUDVW-DSDQ²DQDGYDQFHGPDUNHWHFRQRP\²KDVDOZD\V EHHQ PRUH VXVSLFLRXV RI )', KDV WUDGLWLRQDOO\ SURWHFWHG GRPHVWLF HQWHUSULVHV IURP FRPSHWLWLRQZLWK 01&V DQG KDV GUDJJHG LWV IHHW RQ WKH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI FDSLWDOFRQWUROVDQGHYHQWRGD\VLJQLÀ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·V PDUNHW HFRQRP\GLVSOD\VDPRUHFHQWUDOL]HGSROLF\RQ)', 0RUHRYHUWKHUHDUHLPSRUWDQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHEDVLFJRDOVJXLGLQJ&KLQHVH DQG-DSDQHVH,)',SROLFLHV,QWKHFDVHRI&KLQDLWDSSHDUVWKDW,)',SROLF\LVWR DODUJHH[WHQWGHÀQHGDVDUHJLRQDOSURPRWLRQWRROZKHUHDVIRU-DSDQLWLVDPRUH VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG LQGXVWULDO SROLF\ WRRO 2I FRXUVH &KLQD KDV KDG VRPH VHFWRUDO
Solis UHVWULFWLRQVRQ,)',ÀQDQFH
Notes $Q H[FHSWLRQ LV +RUQH ZKR KLJKOLJKWHG WKH EXUHDXFUDWLF SROLWLFV EHKLQG WKH UHIRUP RI IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH OHJLVODWLRQ LQ DQG JUHDWO\ LQÁXHQFHG P\ RZQ WKLQNLQJRQWKLVVXEMHFW &OHDUO\UHVWULFWLRQVRQFDSLWDOÁRZVDUHRQO\RQHRIWKHSROLF\WRROVDWWKHGLVSRVDORIWKH -DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWWRDIIHFW01&RSHUDWLRQV,QWKHFDVHRIRXWZDUG)',SUHIHUHQWLDO ÀQDQFHIURPJRYHUQPHQWEDQNVDQGLQYHVWPHQWLQVXUDQFHIURPWKH0,7,KDYHDOVRH[HUWHG DSRZHUIXOLQÁXHQFHRYHUWKHXQIROGLQJRI-DSDQHVHPXOWLQDWLRQDOLVP,QWKHFDVHRI)', LQ-DSDQWKHVHOHFWLYHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKH$QWLPRQRSRO\/DZLQWHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHUFDVHV QXPHURXVLQGXVWU\UHJXODWLRQVEDUULQJVLJQLÀFDQWIRUHLJQSURGXFWLRQDQGÀQDQFHIURP WKH'HYHORSPHQW%DQNRI-DSDQKDYHEHHQLQVWUXPHQWVWRDIIHFWLQFRPLQJLQYHVWPHQWV 8QIRUWXQDWHO\DQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHHQWLUHWRRONLWRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWWRLQÁXHQFH PXOWLQDWLRQDOLQYHVWPHQWLVEH\RQGWKHVFRSHRIWKLVFKDSWHU 7KH IXOO QDPH RI WKLV ODZ ZDV )RUHLJQ ([FKDQJH DQG )RUHLJQ 7UDGH &RQWURO /DZ Kawase Bôeki Kanri Hô $QRWKHULPSRUWDQWSLHFHRIOHJLVODWLRQIRUWKHUHJXODWLRQRI LQZDUG)',ZDVWKH)RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQW/DZGaishi Tokei Hô 7KHVH)',UDWLRVZHUHHVWLPDWHGIURPVHYHUDOLVVXHVLQ2(&', International Direct Investment Statistics Yearbook. 7KH 02)·V )', VWDWLVWLFV VXIIHU PDQ\ ÁDZV WKH\ DUH EDVHG RQ QRWLÀFDWLRQV DQG QRW DFWXDO LQYHVWPHQW DPRXQWV WKH\ GR QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW UHLQYHVWPHQWV RU
From iron doors to paper screens
GLVLQYHVWPHQWV DQG WKH\ GR QRW LQFOXGH YHU\ VPDOOVFDOH LQYHVWPHQWV )RU D JRRG FULWLTXHRIWKLVGDWDEDVHVHH:HLQVWHLQ /LQFROQ DQG)DUUHO 7KH ,0)·V WK FODXVH HQWDLOHG IUHH IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH WUDQVDFWLRQV FXUUHQF\ FRQYHUWLELOLW\DQGHOLPLQDWLRQRIFXUUHQF\GLVFULPLQDWRU\PHDVXUHV2QWKHRWKHUKDQG WKH2(&'SDVVHGDFRGHRQFDSLWDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQWKDWPHPEHUVZHUHWRHPXODWH -RKQVRQ² SURYLGHVWKHEHVWDFFRXQWRIWKHPDQ\VRXUFHVRIRSSRVLWLRQ WRWKLVELOO.HLGDQUHQWKHSHDNEXVLQHVVDVVRFLDWLRQ UHVHQWHGWKH0,7,·VDWWHPSWV WRLQWHUYHQHGLUHFWO\LQSULYDWHPDUNHWVORQJDIWHUWKHLPPHGLDWHWDVNRIUHEXLOGLQJ WKHHFRQRP\KDGEHHQFRPSOHWHG7KHELOODQWLFLSDWHGWKDWSULYDWHEDQNVZRXOGJLYH SULRULW\WRVHFWRUVGHVLJQDWHGE\WKH0,7,DQGWKLVQRWRQO\LQIXULDWHGWKHEDQNVEXW DJJUDYDWHGWKH02)E\LWVGLUHFWLQWUXVLRQRQLWVMXULVGLFWLRQDVFRPPHUFLDOEDQNLQJ ZDV WKH 02)·V WXUI 7KH )DLU 7UDGH &RPPLVVLRQ DOVR RSSRVHG WKH 0,7,·V FDUWHO SROLF\DVDFKDOOHQJHWRWKH$QWLPRQRSRO\/DZ)LQDOO\WKH0,7,LWVHOIZDVGLYLGHG LQWKHOHJHQGDU\VSOLWEHWZHHQWKHQDWLRQDO6DKDVKL DQGLQWHUQDWLRQDO,PDL IDFWLRQV DQGFRXOGQRWSUHVHQWDXQLÀHGIURQW 1RWHYHU\RQHDJUHHGZLWKWKH02)WKRXJK7KHJHQHUDOWUDGLQJKRXVHVLQSDUWLFXODUWRRN H[FHSWLRQWRWKLVDQGUHVHQWHGWKHLUH[FOXVLRQIURPIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHEXVLQHVV+RUQH ² $VRI0DUFKJRYHUQPHQWORDQVIRU,)',WRWDOHGELOOLRQ\HQ'HYHORSPHQW %DQNRI-DSDQKWWSZZZGEMJRMS )RUDJRRGDQDO\VLVRIWKHSROLWLFVDQGFRQWHQWRIWKH%LJ%DQJUHIRUPVVHH0-% +DOO 5DGLQ DQG/DXUHQFH ´*DLNRNX.DZDVHR\REL*DLNRNX %{HNL+{µ02)² 5HVSRQVH WR D ZULWWHQ TXHVWLRQQDLUH VXEPLWWHG E\ WKH DXWKRU WR 0,7, RIÀFLDOV 'HFHPEHU
A catch-up strategy? &KLQD·VSROLF\WRZDUGIRUHLJQGLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW Yi-Feng Tao
2QHRIWKHPRVWGUDVWLFFKDQJHVLQ&KLQDWKDWKDVWDNHQSODFHGXULQJWKHUHIRUP HUDLVWKDWLWKDVEHHQWUDQVIRUPHGIURPDVRFLDOLVWDXWDUN\WRWKHVHFRQGODUJHVW KRVW FRXQWU\ IRU IRUHLJQ GLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW )', LQ WKH ZRUOG DIWHU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV )URP WKH RQVHW RI HFRQRPLF UHIRUP LQ WR &KLQD DEVRUEHG D WRWDORIPRUHWKDQ86ELOOLRQLQ)',HTXLYDOHQWWRDERXWSHUFHQWRILWV JURVV GRPHVWLF SURGXFW *'3 LQ 7KH )', LQÁRZV FRPELQHG ZLWK WKHLU ULSSOHHIIHFWVRQWKHJURZWKLQ&KLQD·VWUDGHDQGIRUHLJQUHVHUYHVDVZHOODV*'3 KDYHEHHQVHHQDVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWHYLGHQFHRI&KLQD·VVXFFHVVLQDFKLHYLQJ HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKURXJK OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ:KLOH WKH HDUOLHU ´ODWH LQGXVWULDOL]HUVµ VXFKDV-DSDQ6RXWK.RUHDDQG7DLZDQJHQHUDOO\EHOLHYHGWKDW)',ZRXOGGR PRUHKDUPWKDQJRRGWRORFDOHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW&KLQD·VUHFHQWH[SHULHQFHV VHHPWRVKRZWKHRSSRVLWH,IWKHUROHRI)',LQWKHODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUV·FDWFK XS HQGHDYRUKDV HYROYHGIURP DQREVWDFOHIRUW\ \HDUV DJR WR D IDFLOLWDWRUQRZ ZKDWFKDQJHVLQWKHZRUOGFDSLWDOLVWV\VWHPFDXVHGWKLVHYROXWLRQ",VWKH)',OHG JURZWKDZHOODUWLFXODWHGFDWFKXSVWUDWHJ\RIWKH&KLQHVHQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQW RUDQXQH[SHFWHGFRQVHTXHQFHRI&KLQD·VHFRQRPLFWUDQVLWLRQ"&DQWKH)',OHG JURZWKEHDQHZPRGHOIRUWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWRIODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVLQWKH WZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\" 7KLV FKDSWHU DUJXHV WKDW WKH FKDQJLQJ UROH RI )', LQ IDFLOLWDWLQJ HFRQRPLF JURZWKLQWKHODWHGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV/'&V ZDVWKHUHVXOWRIFKDQJHVLQWKH JOREDOSURGXFWLRQV\VWHPDQGWKHFRQVHTXHQWFURVVERUGHUUHVWUXFWXULQJRILQGXVWULHVLQ(DVW$VLD7KHHQYLDEOH)',OHGJURZWKLQ&KLQDLVQRWDZHOODUWLFXODWHG FDWFKXSVWUDWHJ\RID&KLQHVHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH5DWKHUWKHODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI)',LVDFWXDOO\DQXQLQWHQGHGFRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHRQJRLQJÀVFDOGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQZLWKLQWKH&KLQHVHVWDWH)LVFDOGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQSURYLGHGORFDOJRYHUQPHQWV ZLWKVWURQJLQFHQWLYHVWRFRPSHWHZLWKHDFKRWKHUWRRIIHUFRQFHVVLRQDU\WHUPVIRU IRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQW*LYHQWKDWWKH&KLQHVHQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQW·VSROLF\WRZDUG IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW LV QRW SDUWLFXODUO\ OLEHUDO LQ FRPSDULVRQ ZLWK RWKHU /'&V WKLV FRPSHWLWLRQ DPRQJ &KLQHVH ORFDO JRYHUQPHQWV KDV SOD\HG D SLYRWDO UROH LQ &KLQD·V )',OHG HFRQRPLF ERRP$OWKRXJK )',OHG GHYHORSPHQW KDV VHHPLQJO\PDGH&KLQDWKHPRVWVXFFHVVIXOGHYHORSPHQWVWRU\DWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKH WZHQW\ÀUVWFHQWXU\ZKHQWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWLWVVLGHHIIHFWVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVVXFK DVGHÁDWLRQDU\HIIHFWVRQWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWRYHUH[SORLWDWLRQRIODERUDQGWKH
A catch-up strategy? HQYLURQPHQWDQGOLPLWHGVSLOORYHUHIIHFWVRQQDWLRQDOLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQLWLVVWLOO WRRHDUO\WRWHOOZKHWKHU)',OHGJURZWKLVDVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJ\ :KHQFRPSDULQJ)',GHYHORSPHQWLQ&KLQDDQG-DSDQWKHPRVWH\HFDWFKLQJ GLIIHUHQFHLVWKDWZKHUHDV-DSDQLVWKHODUJHVW)',H[SRUWHULQWKHUHJLRQ&KLQD LV WKH ODUJHVW )', UHFLSLHQW LQ WKH UHJLRQ 7KLV VKDUS FRQWUDVW EHWZHHQ WKH WZR FRXQWULHV UHÁHFWV WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKHLU VWDJHV RI GHYHORSPHQW DV ZHOO DV WKH UDSLGFKDQJHVLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOSROLWLFDOHFRQRP\LQWKHODVWKDOIFHQWXU\:KHQ -DSDQUH MRLQHGWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\DIWHU:RUOG:DU,,)',ZDVPRVWO\FRQFHQWUDWHGLQWKHVHFWRUVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHPLQLQJDQGWRDOHVVHUH[WHQWFDSLWDO LQWHQVLYHPDQXIDFWXULQJ'XULQJWKDWWLPHPRVWFRXQWULHVZHUHHQJDJHGLQSRVW ZDUUHFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGLPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ,6, *RYHUQPHQWVLQ /'&VJHQHUDOO\PDLQWDLQHGDTXLWHFDXWLRXVLIQRWKRVWLOHDWWLWXGHWRZDUGLQZDUG IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW,)', $JDLQVWWKLVEDFNGURS-DSDQMRLQHGWKHZRUOG HFRQRP\SURYLGLQJYHU\OLPLWHGPDUNHWDFFHVVWR,)', ,Q WKH V ZKHQ &KLQD MRLQHG WKH ZRUOG HFRQRP\ WKH ZRUOG FDSLWDOLVW V\VWHPDVZHOODVWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRI)',KDGSURIRXQGO\FKDQJHG²QDPHO\ JOREDOL]DWLRQRIPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGGLVWULEXWLRQKDGOHGWRDUDSLGWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQ ZRUOG WUDGH SDWWHUQV DQG WKH QDWXUH RI PXOWLQDWLRQDO FRPSDQLHV 01&V DV ZHOODVWKH/'&V·GHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHV,Q(DVW$VLDDUHJLRQDOUHVWUXFWXULQJ KDVWDNHQSODFHLQUHVSRQVHWRWKLVWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ8QGHUWKLVUHVWUXFWXULQJ-DSDQ KDVEHFRPHWKHODUJHVWVRXUFHRIRXWZDUGIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW2)', LQWKH UHJLRQZKHUHDV&KLQDKDVKDGWRIDFHÀHUFHFRPSHWLWLRQDPRQJ/'&VIRU,)', 7KHUHIRUH WKLV FKDSWHU VWDUWV ZLWK D VHFWLRQ WKDW DQDO\]HV WKH JHQHUDO WUHQGV LQ PDQXIDFWXULQJJOREDOL]DWLRQDQGWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRI01&VDQG)',6SHFLDO IRFXVZLOOEHSXWRQFURVVFRXQWU\UHVWUXFWXULQJDQGHFRQRPLFLQWHJUDWLRQLQWKH UHJLRQ,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHZLOOH[SODLQZK\WKHUHDUHPDLQO\WZRW\SHVRI)',LQ &KLQD7KHÀUVWW\SHFRPHVPRVWO\IURPLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVDQGLVLQYHVWHGLQ VHUYLFHVDQGFDSLWDOLQWHQVLYHPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWULHVLQRUGHUWRREWDLQPDUNHW DFFHVVWR&KLQD7KHVHFRQGW\SHRI)',LVPRVWO\IURPRWKHU(DVW$VLDQQHZO\ LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV1,&V HVSHFLDOO\+RQJ.RQJDQG7DLZDQ7KHPDMRULW\ RIWKLVW\SHLVFRQFHQWUDWHGRQH[SRUWRULHQWHGODERULQWHQVLYHLQGXVWULHVGXHWR &KLQD·VORZFRVWRIODERUDQGODQGDQGDOHVVUHVWULFWLYHUHJXODWRU\HQYLURQPHQW 'HVSLWHWKHKXJHYROXPHRI)',LQÁRZVWR&KLQDWKHQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQW·V SROLF\WRZDUG)',LVDFWXDOO\TXLWHVWULQJHQWLQFRPSDULVRQZLWKRWKHU/'&V,WLV WKH&KLQHVHORFDOJRYHUQPHQWV·HDJHUQHVVIRUIRUHLJQFDSLWDOWKDWKDVPDGH&KLQD DWWUDFWLYHWRIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUV)LVFDOGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQKDVHQJDJHGWKH´LQYHVWPHQW KXQJU\µ&KLQHVHORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVLQÀHUFHFRPSHWLWLRQIRUIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQW ,QRUGHUWRFUHDWHDQDWWUDFWLYHLQYHVWPHQWHQYLURQPHQWLQWKHLUMXULVGLFWLRQVORFDO JRYHUQPHQWVKHOSIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVFLUFXPYHQWWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQW·VSROLFLHV 7KHVHLQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVE\DQGODUJHGHWHUPLQHWKHWHUPVRILQYHVWPHQW ²WKDWLVKRZWKHLQYHVWPHQWEHQHÀWVDUHGLVWULEXWHGEHWZHHQIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVDQG WKHKRVWFRXQWU\7KHVHFRQGVHFWLRQZLOODQDO\]HLQGHWDLOKRZWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI&KLQD·VGRPHVWLFSROLWLFDOLQVWLWXWLRQVXQH[SHFWHGO\UHVXOWHGLQWKHHFRQRPLF VXFFHVVRI)',OHGJURZWK,WDOVRDQDO\]HVKRZ)',LVGLVWULEXWHGDFURVVUHJLRQV DQGVHFWRUVZLWKLQ&KLQD
Tao 7KHÀQDOVHFWLRQUHÁHFWVXSRQZKHWKHU)',OHGJURZWKFDQEHVHHQDVDQHZ PRGHOIRUHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWLQODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVVXFKDV&KLQD7KHPHULWV DQGVKRUWDJHVRIWKH)',OHGGHYHORSPHQWH[SHULPHQWLQ&KLQDZLOOEHDQDO\]HG WKURXJKDFRPSDULVRQZLWKWKUHHLGHDOW\SLFDOFDWFKXSVWUDWHJLHVWKDWZHUHSRSXODU LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG LQ WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ WKH VRFLDOLVW GHYHORSPHQW PRGHO,6,DQGH[SRUWRULHQWHGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ(2,
Global transformation and the rise of manufacturing FDI Á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he changing role of FDI in developing countries )',KDVDYHU\ORQJKLVWRU\LQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV(YHQEHIRUH:RUOG:DU, )', ZDV DQ LPSRUWDQW ÀQDQFLQJ VRXUFH IRU LQIUDVWUXFWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJZRUOG$IWHU:RUOG:DU,,WKHIRFXVRI)',LQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV JUDGXDOO\VKLIWHGIURPLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDJULFXOWXUHDQGPLQLQJWRPDQXIDFWXULQJ +RZHYHURQO\VLQFHWKHPLGVKDV)',LQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVH[SHULHQFHG SKHQRPHQDO JURZWK 7KLV JURZWK ZDV HYHQ PRUH DVWRQLVKLQJ LQ WKH V$V VKRZQLQ7DEOH)',LQÁRZVWRGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVNHSWJURZLQJDWDKLJK VSHHGWKURXJKWKHV7KHRQO\H[FHSWLRQZDVZKHQPDQ\GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHVZHUHKLWE\WKH$VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLV 7ZRJOREDOWUHQGVKDYHLQVSLUHGWKHVKDUSLQFUHDVHLQ)',ÁRZVWRGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV 2QH LV WKH FKDQJH LQ SROLF\ VWDQFHV E\ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV WKHPVHOYHV6LQFHWKHV²GULYHQE\ERWKWKHVHDUFKIRUDOWHUQDWLYHSROLFLHVIURP WKHLUHDUOLHUGLVDSSRLQWLQJH[SHULHQFHVZLWKWKHLPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQVWUDWHJ\DQG WKHSUHVVXUHIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFRUJDQL]DWLRQVDVZHOODVJRYHUQPHQWV DQG EXVLQHVV JURXSV LQ LQGXVWULDOL]HG FRXQWULHV IRU PRUH RSHQLQJ LQ WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQW ² DOPRVW DOO JRYHUQPHQWV LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG KDYH HQJDJHG LQ HFRQRPLFOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ7KHVKDUSLQFUHDVHLQ)',LQÁRZVZDVSDUWO\DUHVSRQVH WRWKHVHRSHQLQJSROLFLHV,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFH&RUSRUDWLRQ² 7KH UHGXFWLRQRIWDULIIVDQGFRQVWUDLQWVRQLQYHVWPHQWVSURYLGHGDVWURQJLQFHQWLYHIRU LQYHVWPHQWLQPDQXIDFWXULQJ 7KH VHFRQG JOREDO WUHQG EHKLQG WKLV SKHQRPHQDO LQFUHDVH ZDV WKH RQJRLQJ FKDQJHVLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOGLYLVLRQRIODERU$VHDUO\DVWKHODWHVSROLWLFDO HFRQRPLVWV REVHUYHG WKH HPHUJHQFH RI D QHZ LQWHUQDWLRQDO GLYLVLRQ RI ODERU LQ ZKLFKPRUHDQGPRUHSURGXFWLRQOLQHVDQGMREV PLJUDWHGIURPGHYHORSHGFRXQ-
A catch-up strategy? Table 7.1 )',LQÁRZVWRGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQWKHV Year ² DQQXDODYHUDJHV
Values (US$m)
Share in the world total (%)
Growth rate (%)
² ²
6RXUFHV81&7$'2000 World Investment ReporWSDQG2004 World Investment Report, S .
WULHVWRGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQVHDUFKRIFKHDSHUSURGXFWLRQIDFWRUV)UREOH 7KHQHZGLYLVLRQRIODERUDFURVVQDWLRQDOERXQGDULHVLQWHQVLÀ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ÁRZVamongGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHVKDYHPDGHDVLJQLÀFDQWFRQWULEXWLRQWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQ)',LQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV0RVWRIWKLVW\SHRI)',ZDVPRWLYDWHGE\outsourcingUDWKHUWKDQ market access7KHRXWSXWIURPWKHDIÀOLDWHVLQZKLFKWKH01&VLQYHVWHGLQZDV PRVWO\ QRW DLPHG DW WKH GRPHVWLF PDUNHW RI WKH KRVW FRXQWU\ EXW LQWHQGHG IRU H[SRUWWRWKLUGFRXQWULHV$VVKRZQLQ)LJXUH)',RXWÁRZVIURPGHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHVDVDSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHZRUOGWRWDOJUHZIURPOHVVWKDQSHUFHQWLQWKH VWRPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWLQWKHV(YHQDIWHUWKH$VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLV WKHÀJXUHZDVVWLOOKLJKHUWKDQWKHOHYHORIWKHV The economic restructuring and regional integration in East Asia 6LQFH WKH HQG RI :RUOG :DU ,, ZRUOG WUDGH DQG RXWSXW KDV H[SDQGHG DW DQ DVWRQLVKLQJ UDWH -DSDQ DQG WKH (DVW $VLDQ 1,&V LH 6RXWK .RUHD 7DLZDQ +RQJ.RQJDQG6LQJDSRUHZHUHSUREDEO\WKHPRVWVLJQLÀFDQWEHQHÀFLDULHVRI WKH H[SDQVLRQ LQ ZRUOG WUDGH DQG RXWSXW$IWHU H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK SURWHFWLRQLVW LPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQSROLFLHVLQWKHVDQGVDOOWKHVHFRXQWULHVDFKLHYHG WKHLUUDSLGSRVWZDUJURZWKE\DGRSWLQJDQH[SRUWOHGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQVWUDWHJ\ ,QWXUQWKHLUUDSLGJURZWKUHVXOWHGLQVWURQJHUSUHVVXUHIRUSURWHFWLRQLVPLQWKH
Tao
Figure 7.1 )',RXWÁRZVIURP/'&V
LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVHVSHFLDOO\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVZHOODVVKDUSLQFUHDVHV LQGRPHVWLFSURGXFWLRQFRVWVLQWKHVHFRXQWULHV7KHUHIRUHVLQFHWKHPLGV VWLPXODWHG E\ SULFH KLNHV LQ GRPHVWLF SURGXFWLRQ DQG FXUUHQF\ DSSUHFLDWLRQ -DSDQ DQG WKH (DVW $VLDQ 1,&V KDYH XQGHUJRQH HFRQRPLF UHVWUXFWXULQJ 3XW VLPSO\ UHVWUXFWXULQJ WDNHV SODFH LQ WZR SDUWV ÀUVW FRPSDQLHV VKLIW UHVRXUFHV GRPHVWLFDOO\IURPGHFOLQLQJVHFWRUVWRSURPLVLQJVHFWRUVDQGWKHQWKH\UHORFDWH RYHUVHDVWKHSURGXFWLRQRISURGXFWVDQGSDUWVWKDWFDQQRORQJHUEHDSSURSULDWHO\ FDUULHG RXW DW KRPH )XNXVKLPD DQG .ZDQ 7KH VHFRQG SDUW RI WKH HFRQRPLF UHVWUXFWXULQJ ZDV RQH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV WKDW OHG WR WKH JURZWKRILQWUDUHJLRQDOLQYHVWPHQWLQ(DVW$VLDVLQFHWKHPLGV $WWKHVDPHWLPHLQÁXHQFHGE\WKHVXFFHVVIXOGHYHORSPHQWH[SHULHQFHVRIWKH (DVW$VLDQ1,&V&KLQDDQGWKH$VVRFLDWLRQRI6RXWKHDVW$VLDQ1DWLRQV$6($1 FRXQWULHVEHJDQDVHULHVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSROLFLHVLQRUGHUWRDEVRUE)',WRDFFRPSOLVKWKHLURZQH[SRUWOHGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ7KH\VDZWKHUDSLGLQÁRZVRI)', IURPWKHUHJLRQDV´DTXLFNZD\WRMXPSVWDUWWKHSURFHVVRILQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQµ
A catch-up strategy? Table 7.2 )',JURZWKLQ&KLQD Year ²
Number of projects
Pledged value (US$m)
Growth rate (%) QD QD ² ² ² ² ²
Realized value (US$m)
Growth rate QD QD ²
6RXUFH&KLQD6WDWH6WDWLVWLFDO%XUHDXChina Foreign Economic Statistical Yearbook S Note QDQRWDYDLODEOH
DERXWWZRWKLUGVRI)',LQ&KLQD7KHUDSLGJURZWKRI)',LQ&KLQDFDQWKXVEH VHHQDVSDUWRIWKHRQJRLQJSKHQRPHQRQRIUHJLRQDOHFRQRPLFUHVWUXFWXULQJLQ(DVW $VLD,WKDVORQJEHHQUHFRJQL]HGWKDWWKHUHDUHWZRPDLQW\SHVRI)',LQ&KLQD 2QHLVIURP(DVW$VLDQ1,&VVHDUFKLQJIRUFKHDSHUSURGXFWLRQFRVWVIRUODERU LQWHQVLYH H[SRUWV 7KH RWKHU LV IURP DGYDQFHG FRXQWULHV DWWUDFWHG E\ WKH KXJH SRWHQWLDORI&KLQD·VGRPHVWLFPDUNHW7KHSDWWHUQKHUHVKRZVWKDWWKHPDMRULW\ RIWKH)',LQÁRZVWR&KLQDDLPHGDWVHHNLQJORZHUSULFHVIRUH[SRUWSURGXFWLRQ $V ZH ZLOO GLVFXVV LQ PRUH GHWDLO ODWHU PRVW RI WKLV )', ZDV FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ PDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRUVLQFRDVWDO&KLQD
Domestic political institutions and foreign investment fever in transitional China 6WXGLHV RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO SROLWLFDO HFRQRP\ KDYH IRXQG WKDW GRPHVWLF SROLWLFDO LQVWLWXWLRQV SOD\ D FUXFLDO UROH LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH SDWWHUQ DQG VHTXHQFH RI HFRQRPLF OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ .HRKDQH DQG 0LOQHU 7KLV LV DOVR WKH FDVH LQ WKH ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI &KLQD·V IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW SROLF\ 7KH LGLRV\QFUDWLF
Tao Table 7.3 7RSVHYHQFRXQWULHVRIRULJLQIRU)',LQÁRZVWR&KLQD²86 Country +RQJ.RQJ Taiwan 8QLWHG6WDWHV -DSDQ *HUPDQ\ 8. 6LQJDSRUH 6XEWRWDO
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Total
1,920,233
3,895,972
4,321,284
4,813,269
4,174,548
4,527,701
6RXUFH&KLQD6WDWH6WDWLVWLFDO%XUHDXChinese Statistical Yearbook SS²DQGSS²
QDWXUHRIFHQWUDO²ORFDOUHODWLRQVLQ&KLQD·VSROLWLFDOV\VWHPLVDFHQWUDOIDFWRULQ GHWHUPLQLQJWKHSDWWHUQRILQYHVWPHQWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ The evolution of the Chinese national government’s policy toward FDI 7KHHYROXWLRQRI&KLQD·VQDWLRQDOUHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUNWRZDUG)',FDQJHQHUDOO\ EHGLYLGHGLQWRIRXUSKDVHV(DFKSKDVHVWDUWHGZLWKWKHSURPXOJDWLRQRIDQHZ ODZRUDJUHHPHQWWKDWXQGHUSLQQHGWKHUHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUNIRUWKHQH[WVHYHUDO \HDUV 7KHÀUVWSKDVH² VWDUWHGZLWKWKHSURPXOJDWLRQRIWKH-RLQW9HQWXUH /DZ-9/ LQPLG$VWKHÀUVWIRUPDOVWDWHPHQWRIWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·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ÁH[LEOH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG SROLF\ H[SHULPHQWV WR DEVRUE )', LQ D WUDQVLWLRQDO HFRQRP\ +RZHYHUWKHDPELJXLW\WRJHWKHUZLWKWKHSROLF\XQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHEURDGHUSROLF\ FRQWH[WLQWKLVHDUO\VWDJHRIHFRQRPLFWUDQVLWLRQUHVXOWHGLQDYHU\PRGHVWJURZWK RI)',$VVKRZQLQ7DEOHWKHUHDOL]HGYDOXHRI)',IURPWRZDV RQO\86PLOOLRQ 7KHPRGHVWJURZWKRI)',DWWKHQDWLRQDOOHYHODQGWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI)',LQ WKHIRXU6(=VSURPSWHG&KLQD·VFHQWUDOSROLF\PDNHUVWRHQODUJHWKHJHRJUDSKLFDODUHDVRSHQWRIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQW7KXV&KLQD·V)',SROLF\HQWHUHGWKHVHFRQG SKDVHLQZLWKWKHDQQRXQFHPHQWRIWKH&KLQHVHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQW·VGHFLVLRQWRRSHQDQRWKHUIRXUWHHQFRDVWDOFLWLHVWRIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQW7KLVVWDJHZDV FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHJHRJUDSKLFDOH[SDQVLRQRIVSHFLDOLQYHVWPHQWDUHDV,WVWDUWHG
A catch-up strategy?
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 Total
%
4,546,275
4,031,871
4,071,481
4,687,759
5,274,286 46,264,679
100.00
ZLWKIRXUWHHQFLWLHVH[SDQGHGWRWKH
Tao 7KH OLEHUDOL]LQJ PRPHQWXP ZDV IXUWKHU UHLQIRUFHG E\ 'HQJ ;LDRSLQJ·V ´VRXWKHUQWRXUµLQHDUO\7KHWRXUKLJKOLJKWHGWKH&KLQHVHFHQWUDOOHDGHUV· FRPPLWPHQWWRHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWWKURXJKIXUWKHULQWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKHZRUOG HFRQRP\ 'HQJ ;LDRSLQJ HYHQ VDLG WKDW *XDQJGRQJ VKRXOG WDNH WKH FKDOOHQJH WRFDWFKXSZLWKWKH´IRXUOLWWOHGUDJRQVµZLWKLQWZHQW\\HDUV)X 7KH VRFDOOHG 'RFXPHQW 1R ZDV WKHUHIRUH LVVXHG E\ WKH &&3 3ROLWEXUR LQ 0D\ WRHPERG\WKLVFRPPLWPHQWE\VWDUWLQJDQHZURXQGRIUHOD[DWLRQRQ)',LQ YDULRXVVHFWRUVDQGJHRJUDSKLFDODUHDV,QERWKDQG&KLQD·V)',JUHZ E\DERXWSHUFHQW)RUWKHUHPDLQGHURIWKHGHFDGH&KLQDZDVDEOHWRDEVRUE DKXJHDPRXQWRI)',LQÁRZVVHH7DEOH 7KH 86²&KLQD ELODWHUDO :RUOG 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ :72 DJUHHPHQW PDUNHG WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH IRXUWK SKDVH RI WKH HYROXWLRQ RI &KLQD·V SROLF\ WRZDUG)',7KHDJUHHPHQWEURXJKW&KLQD·VLQWHJUDWLRQZLWKWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\ WRDQRWKHUQHZVWDJHE\FRPPLWWLQJ&KLQDWRDIXOORSHQLQJRIWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW WR )', LQ LPSRUWDQW VHFWRUV OLNH EDQNLQJ DQG ÀQDQFH WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV DQGUHWDLOLQJLQWKUHHWRÀYH\HDUVDIWHUMRLQLQJWKHWUDGHRUJDQL]DWLRQ)ROORZLQJ DVKDUSGHFOLQHLQ)',DIWHUWKH$VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLVLQWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQW VWDUWHG DQRWKHU URXQG RI RSHQLQJ XS KLJKWHFK LQGXVWULHV WR DJJUHVVLYHO\ LQGXFHKLJKYDOXHDGGHGH[SRUWFRPSDQLHVWRLQYHVWLQ&KLQD6LQFHZLWK WKHFRPELQHGHIIHFWVRI&KLQD·VHQWU\LQWRWKH:72DQGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRILQYHVWPHQWLQKLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHVWKHUHKDVEHHQDUHVXUJHQFHLQ)',JURZWK 7R VXP XS WKH &KLQHVH FHQWUDO JRYHUQPHQW DGRSWHG D JUDGXDO DSSURDFK LQ LQGXFLQJ )', ,Q WKH EHJLQQLQJ QDWLRQDO SROLFLHV ZHUH TXLWH UHVWULFWLYH WRZDUG )',LQWHUPVRIRZQHUVKLSPDQDJHPHQWDXWRQRP\DQGPDUNHWDFFHVVDVZHOODV IRUHLJQH[FKDQJH1RWXQWLOWKHVZKHQERWKFRPSHWLWLRQIURPRWKHU/'&V IRUIRUHLJQFDSLWDODQGSUHVVXUHIURPDGYDQFHGFRXQWULHVIRUPDUNHWDFFHVVZHUH LQWHQVLÀHG GLG WKH &KLQHVH FHQWUDO JRYHUQPHQW VWDUW EURDGHU OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH)',UHJLPH1RQHWKHOHVVLQFRPSDULVRQZLWKRWKHU/'&V&KLQD·VQDWLRQDO SROLFLHV WRZDUG )', LQ JHQHUDO DUH QRW SDUWLFXODUO\ IDYRUDEOH WR IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQWHVSHFLDOO\LQDUHDVVXFKDVRZQHUVKLSUHVWULFWLRQVDQGFDSLWDOFRQWUROV+RZ GLG&KLQDQRQHWKHOHVVEHFRPHWKHPRVWDWWUDFWLYHVLWHIRU)',LQWKHGHYHORSLQJ ZRUOG"7KHDQVZHUOLHVLQLWVLGLRV\QFUDWLFSROLWLFDOLQVWLWXWLRQV The impetus of local “investment hunger” )LVFDO GHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ KDV EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG RQH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW GULYLQJ IRUFHV EHKLQG &KLQD·V HFRQRPLF WUDQVLWLRQ ,W KDV RQ WKH RQH KDQG PRWLYDWHG ORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVDQGVWDWHRZQHGHQWHUSULVHV62(V WRHQJDJHLQVSRQWDQHRXV UHIRUPVE\KDUGHQLQJWKHLUEXGJHWFRQVWUDLQWVDQGRQWKHRWKHUKDQGGHSULYHG FHQWUDOSROLF\PDNHUVRIWKHWUDGLWLRQDOLQVWUXPHQWVWRNHHSORFDOLQYHVWPHQWLQOLQH ZLWKFHQWUDOSROLF\$VORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVDWGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJO\KDGWRUHO\RQWKHPVHOYHVWRÀQDQFHSXEOLFH[SHQGLWXUHVWKH\ZRXOG SURPRWHORFDOHFRQRPLFJURZWKE\DQ\PHDQV $JDLQVWWKLVEDFNJURXQGVLQFHWKHVORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVLQFRDVWDODUHDV KDYHGHYHORSHGVWURQJLQFHQWLYHVWRSURPRWHORFDOGHYHORSPHQWE\DWWUDFWLQJIRU-
A catch-up strategy? HLJQLQYHVWPHQW2EVHUYHUVRIWKLVSKHQRPHQRQIRXQGWKDWLQWKHLUHIIRUWVWRFUHDWHDQHQYLURQPHQWFRQGXFLYHWRIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWORFDOVWDWHVLQFRDVWDO&KLQD SUHWW\PXFKUHVHPEOHGWKHEHKDYLRURIWKH developmental stateRIWKH(DVW$VLDQ 1,&VWKLUW\\HDUVDJR:LWKVXIÀFLHQWDXWRQRP\IURPGRPHVWLFVRFLDOJURXSVDQG WKH FDSDFLW\ WR SURPRWH IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW DQG WUDGH WKHVH ORFDO JRYHUQPHQWV SOD\DYLWDOUROHLQ´GHVLJQLQJDQGVKDSLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWSURFHVVµZLWKLQWKHLU MXULVGLFWLRQV&KXQJ 7KXVWKHWHUPV´GHYHORSPHQWDOFRPPXQLWLHVµ DQG´ORFDOGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVµ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·VVRXWKHUQWRXUDQGWKHLVVXDQFH RI'RFXPHQW1RLQQXPHURXV´HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW]RQHVµKDYHEHHQ HVWDEOLVKHGLQFRDVWDO&KLQDWRUHVHPEOHWKHPRGHORIWKHIRXU6(=V%\WKHHQGRI WKH6WDWH&RXQFLOKDGDOUHDG\SHUPLWWHGWKLUW\WZR´HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW ]RQHVµ ('=V QRW WR PHQWLRQ FRXQWOHVV ('=V VHW XS E\ JRYHUQPHQW XQLWV DW ORZHUOHYHOV 7KH ÀVFDO DQG ÀQDQFLDO UHIRUPV LQWURGXFHG VLQFH KDYH UHDVVHUWHG FHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWFRQWURORYHUÀQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVLQPDQ\DUHDVDVDUHVXOWORFDO JRYHUQPHQWVGHVSHUDWHO\VHHNDOWHUQDWLYHUHVRXUFHVWRÀQDQFHWKHLULQFUHDVLQJO\ EXUGHQVRPHH[SHQGLWXUHV)RUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWKDVWKXVEHFRPHDNH\VRXUFHRI ÀQDQFLQJIRUORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVLQFRDVWDO&KLQD&RPSHWLWLRQDPRQJORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVIRUIRUHLJQFDSLWDOKDVFRUUHVSRQGLQJO\LQWHQVLÀHGVLQFHWKHPLGV 7KH\XVXDOO\FRPSHWHZLWKRQHDQRWKHUE\JUDQWLQJIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVFRQFHVVLRQV WKDWDUHPXFKPRUHIDYRUDEOHWKDQZKDWWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWDOORZV$FFRUGLQJ WRRQHHVWLPDWHDIWHUFRXQWLQJDOOWKHFRQFHVVLRQVDQGWDULIIH[HPSWLRQVRQLPSRUWV E\ H[SRUW SURFHVVLQJ FRPSDQLHV KLJKWHFK FRPSDQLHV DQG VWUDWHJ\ LQGXVWULHV &KLQD·VDFWXDODYHUDJHWDULIIUDWHLQZDVRQO\SHUFHQWPXFKORZHUWKDQ WKHQRPLQDOUDWHRISHUFHQW0D 7DEOHVKRZVWKDWWKHWRSWHQSURYLQFHVWKDWDEVRUEHGWKHPRVW)',LQWKH V ZHUH DOO LQ FRDVWDO &KLQD7RJHWKHU WKH\ DFFRXQWHG IRU PRUH WKDQ WKUHH IRXUWKVRIWKHWRWDO)',&KLQDDEVRUEHGLQWKDWGHFDGH7KHQXPEHURQHSURYLQFH *XDQJGRQJLQGLYLGXDOO\WRRNDZD\PRUHWKDQRQHIRXUWKRIWKHQDWLRQDOWRWDO 3DUWO\ EHFDXVH RI WKH ´HQFODYH DSSURDFKµ IRUJHG E\ ORFDO SUHIHUHQWLDO SROLFLHV WRZDUG IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW WKH JHRJUDSKLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI )', LQ &KLQD ZDV KLJKO\VNHZHGWRZDUGWKHFRDVWDODUHDVWKURXJKRXWWKHUHIRUPSHULRG $VGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHUWKHPDMRULW\RI)',LQÁRZVWR&KLQDGXULQJWKHUHIRUP HUDZHUHODERULQWHQVLYHH[SRUWFRPSDQLHVIURPWKH(DVW$VLDQ1,&V²HVSHFLDOO\ +RQJ .RQJ DQG 7DLZDQ 7KH FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI )', IURP WKHVH DUHDV QRW RQO\ UHÁHFWHGWKHJOREDOWUHQGRIDQHZLQWHUQDWLRQDOGLYLVLRQRIODERUDQGWKHUHVXOWLQJ
Tao Table 7.4 7KHJHRJUDSKLFDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI)',LQ&KLQD²86 Province *XDQJGRQJ -LDQJVX )XMLDQ 6KDQJKDL 6KDQGRQJ 7LDQMLQ /LDRQLQ =KHMLDQJ %HLMLQJ +DLQDQ 6XEWRWDO
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Total
1,920,233
3,895,972
4,321,284
4,813,269
4,172,552
4,525,704
6RXUFH&KLQHVH1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFVChinese Statistical Yearbook SDQGS
HFRQRPLFUHVWUXFWXULQJLQWKHUHJLRQEXWDOVRUHÁHFWHGWKHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKH LQYHVWPHQWHQYLURQPHQWLQ&KLQD )RU IRUHLJQ LQYHVWRUV DIWHU WKH EDVLF FRQVLGHUDWLRQ RI PDUNHWV DQG FRVWV XQFHUWDLQW\DERXWIXWXUHEHQHÀWVDQGFRVWVLVSUREDEO\WKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRU GHWHUPLQLQJWKHLUFKRLFHRIORFDWLRQ7KXVSDWWHUQVRI)',ÁRZVUHÁHFWQRWRQO\ WKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIPDUNHWVDQGFRVWVLQGLIIHUHQWORFDWLRQVEXWDOVRWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV 7KH KXJH GRPHVWLF PDUNHW LQ &KLQD FDQQRW H[SODLQ ZK\ WKHPDMRULW\RI)',LVH[SRUWRULHQWHG&KLQDVKRXOGKDYHDWWUDFWHGPRUHLPSRUW VXEVWLWXWLQJ)',UDWKHUWKDQH[SRUWRULHQWHG)',7KXVLWLVFRPPRQO\DUJXHG WKDW&KLQD·VKXJHDPRXQWRIODERULQWHQVLYHH[SRUWLQJ)',VKRXOGEHDWWULEXWHGWR LWVUHODWLYHO\FKHDSHUSURGXFWLRQIDFWRUVLHODERUDQGODQG
A catch-up strategy?
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002 Total
%
4,546,275
4,031,871
4,033,289
4,636,700
5,247,126 46,144,275
100.00
DQGWD[DWLRQDQGQHJOLJLEOHSURWHFWLRQRISURSHUW\ULJKWVDQGLQWHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\ ULJKWV+RZHYHUH[SRUWPDQXIDFWXUHUVIURPWKH(DVW$VLDQ1,&VDQGHVSHFLDOO\ WKRVH IURP HWKQLF &KLQHVH FRPPXQLWLHV KDYH SURYHG WR EH HVSHFLDOO\ FDSDEOH DWRYHUFRPLQJWKHVHGLVDGYDQWDJHV8QOLNH:HVWHUQ01&VZKLFKSURWHFWWKHLU LQYHVWPHQWWKURXJKH[KDXVWLYHFRQWUDFWVVPDOO(DVW$VLDQFRPSDQLHVKDYHEHHQ DEOHWRUHGXFHWKHSROLF\XQFHUWDLQW\RIWKH&KLQHVHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWWKURXJK QHJRWLDWLQJ LQIRUPDO DUUDQJHPHQWV ZLWK ORFDO RIÀFLDOV 1DXJKWRQ $V D UHVXOWWKH´HQFODYHDSSURDFKµIRUJHGE\FRPSHWLWLRQDPRQJ&KLQHVHORFDOJRYHUQPHQWV IRU IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW SURGXFHG )', LQÁRZV WKDW DUH KLJKO\ VNHZHG WRZDUGVPDOOODERULQWHQVLYHH[SRUWRULHQWHG)',IURPWKH(DVW$VLDQ1,&V
FDI-led growth as a catch-up strategy? )',·VFRQWULEXWLRQWR&KLQD·VHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQWKHODVWWZHQW\\HDUVKDVEHHQ FRQVLGHUDEOH7DEOHVDQGVKRZWKDWPDQXIDFWXULQJKDVFRQVLVWHQWO\EHHQ WKHPDMRUVHFWRUDWWUDFWLQJIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQW%\WKHODWHVPDQXIDFWXULQJ DFFRXQWHGIRUSHUFHQWRIWRWDOLQYHVWPHQW7KHVHLQYHVWPHQWVZHUHPRVWO\LQ ODERULQWHQVLYHVHFWRUVWKXVFUHDWLQJQXPHURXVMRERSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGDEVRUELQJ WKHUHGXQGDQWODERUIRUFHRIWKHWUDQVLWLRQDOHFRQRP\ 7DEOHVKRZVWKDW)',·VFRQWULEXWLRQWR&KLQD·VH[SRUWJUHZIURPRQO\ SHUFHQWLQWRPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWLQDQG7KLVRIIHUVDGGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFHWKDWPRVWRIWKH)',LQÁRZVWR&KLQDZHUHH[SRUWRULHQWHG1RQHWKHOHVV DVDOVRVKRZQLQ7DEOH)',·VFRQWULEXWLRQWR&KLQHVHLPSRUWVZDVHYHQELJJHU7KLVLVEHFDXVHPRVWRIWKH)',·VH[SRUWVWRRNWKHIRUPRILPSRUWSURFHVVLQJ ZLWKYHU\OLPLWHGGRPHVWLFYDOXHDGGHG$VDUHVXOWWKHQHWFRQWULEXWLRQRI)', WR&KLQD·VIRUHLJQWUDGHZDVQHJDWLYHUDWKHUWKDQSRVLWLYHWKURXJKRXWWKHUHIRUP HUD 7KXV IDU )', LQ &KLQD VHHPV WR EH PRUH LPSRUWLQGXFLQJ WKDQ LPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLQJ 0RVW RI WKH H[SRUWRULHQWHG )', LV LQYROYHG RQO\ LQ ORZ YDOXHDGGHG SURFHVVLQJRILPSRUWHGUDZPDWHULDOVDQGLQWHUPHGLDWHJRRGV7KHGHJUHHRILQWH-
1993
1994 QD
1996
1995
Note QDQRWDYDLODEOH
1998
1997
6RXUFHV&KLQD6WDWH6WDWLVWLFDO%XUHDXChinese Statistical YearbookSDQGS
$JULFXOWXUHIRUHVWU\ ÀVKHU\DQGZDWHU FRQVHUYDQF\ 0LQLQJDQGTXDUU\LQJ 0DQXIDFWXULQJ ,QGXVWU\ Infrastructure, of which: (OHFWULFLW\DQGZDWHU provision &RQVWUXFWLRQ Services, of which Transport and WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV &RPPHUFHPDUNHWLQJ DQGFDWHULQJ 5HDOHVWDWH 6RFLDOVHUYLFHV +HDOWKDQGZHOIDUH LQGXVWU\ (GXFDWLRQFXOWXUHDQG PHGLD 2WKHU
Total
Table 7.5 7KHVHFWRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI)',LQ&KLQD²86
1999
2000
2001 2002
Note QDQRWDYDLODEOH
6RXUFH7DEOH
Sector $JULFXOWXUH 0LQLQJ 0DQXIDFWXULQJ ,QGXVWU\ ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH 6HUYLFHV 2WKHU
1993 QD QD
1995 QD QD
1996 QD QD
1997 QD
Table 7.6 7KHVHFWRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI)',LQ&KLQD² 1998 QD
1999 QD
2000 QD
2001 QD
2002 QD
Total exports (1)
FDI exports (2)
(1)/(2)
Total imports (3)
6RXUFH&KLQD6WDWH6WDWLVWLFDO%XUHDXChinese Foreign Economic Yearbook SS²
Year
Table 7.7 7KHUROHRI)',LQ&KLQD·VWUDGH²86PLOOLRQ FDI imports (4)
(3)/(4)
Trade contribution ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ² ²
A catch-up strategy? JUDWLRQZLWKWKHGRPHVWLFHFRQRP\LVORZDQGWKHUHDUHOLPLWHGVSLOORYHUHIIHFWV WR GRPHVWLF FRPSDQLHV 0RUHRYHU LW LV XQOLNHO\ WR FDXVH PXFK FRPSHWLWLRQ RU HFRQRPLF UHVWUXFWXULQJ ZLWKLQ &KLQHVH FRPSDQLHV $OWKRXJK ODERULQWHQVLYH PDQXIDFWXULQJ )', KDV FUHDWHG MREV KHOSLQJ WR DEVRUE PDQ\ ODLGRII ZRUNHUV DQG WKXV VRRWKLQJ WKH SDLQ RI HFRQRPLF WUDQVLWLRQ LWV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR &KLQD·V HFRQRPLFWUDQVLWLRQLVYHU\PRGHVW ,QDGGLWLRQWKH)',OHGJURZWKVWUDWHJ\KDVUHFHQWO\DURXVHGFRQFHUQVDERXW WKHH[SORLWDWLRQRI&KLQD·VODERUDQGHQYLURQPHQW)RUH[DPSOHVFKRODUO\UHVHDUFK DQGMRXUQDOLVWLFUHSRUWVRQ&KLQD·VODERUFRQGLWLRQVDJUHHWKDWPLJUDQWZRUNHUVLQ QRQVWDWHVHFWRUVLQFOXGLQJWKHERRPLQJWRZQVKLSDQGYLOODJHHQWHUSULVHV79(V DQG IRUHLJQLQYHVWHG HQWHUSULVHV ),(V IURP +RQJ .RQJ 7DLZDQ DQG .RUHD DUHVXEMHFWWRVKRFNLQJH[SORLWDWLRQ&KDQ 0LJUDQWZRUNHUVIURP&KLQD·V KLQWHUODQGFRQVWLWXWHWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHODERUIRUFHLQODERULQWHQVLYHH[SRUWRULHQWHG)',$VHULHVRIDJULFXOWXUDOUHIRUPVLQWKHHDUO\VIUHHGUXUDOFLWL]HQV IURPWKHLUERQGDJHWRIDUPZRUN%XWLPSURYHPHQWLQWKHUXUDOVWDQGDUGRIOLYLQJ ZDQHGDQGHYHQGHWHULRUDWHGDVWKHWHUPVRIWUDGHLQDJULFXOWXUHWXUQHGXQIDYRUDEOHLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKDWGHFDGH:LWKWKHORRVHQLQJRIWKHKRXVHKROGUHJLVWUDWLRQ V\VWHP hukou PDQ\ \RXQJ SHRSOH IURP UXUDO DUHDV PRYHG WR WKH FLWLHV DQG QHZO\ HVWDEOLVKHG ('=V WR WU\ WKHLU OXFN$FFRUGLQJ WR RQH HVWLPDWH WKHUH DUH PRUHWKDQPLOOLRQ´VXUSOXVµZRUNHUVLQWKHFRXQWU\VLGH,QWKH3HDUO5LYHU 'HOWDZKHUHPRVW7DLZDQHVHDQG+RQJ.RQJLQYHVWPHQWLVFRQFHQWUDWHGWKHUH DUHPRUHWKDQPLOOLRQPLJUDQWZRUNHUVIURPRWKHUSURYLQFHV )LQDOO\LQRUGHUWRNHHS&KLQD·VH[SRUWVFRPSHWLWLYHVLQFHWKHPLGVWKH FHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWKDVDGRSWHGDPHUFDQWLOLVWPRQHWDU\SROLF\WKDWPDLQWDLQVDQ XQGHUYDOXHGÀ[HGH[FKDQJHUDWHRQWKHRQHKDQGDQGVXSSUHVVHVWKHJURZWKRI GRPHVWLFPRQH\VXSSO\RQWKHRWKHU7KHUHVXOWLQJGHÁDWLRQDU\HIIHFWVRQLPSRUW FRPSHWLQJVHFWRUVDVZHOODVRQQRQWUDGDEOHVHFWRUVHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHKLQWHUODQG PD\XQGHUPLQH&KLQD·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socialist planned development ÀUVW HPSOR\HGE\WKH6RYLHW8QLRQLQWKHVDQGVimport substitution industrialization, ZKLFKSUHYDLOHGLQ/DWLQ$PHULFDLQWKHVDQGVDQGexportoriented industrialization,PDGHIDPRXVE\WKH(DVW$VLDQ1,&VLQWKHVDQG V7DEOHFRPSDUHV&KLQD·V)',OHGGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJ\ZLWKWKHVHWKUHH PRGHOV 6RFLDOLVWSODQQHGGHYHORSPHQWDQG,6,DUHGHYHORSPHQWPRGHOVFUHDWHGEHIRUH :RUOG:DU,,ZKHQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWZDVQRWIDYRUDEOHIRUIUHHWUDGH ,Q WKH ÀUVW KDOI RI WKH WZHQWLHWK FHQWXU\ LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH ZDV PRVWO\ LQWHU-
,QWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWIRUWUDGH 0DUNHW 6WDWHDXWRQRP\ )',SROLF\ &XUUHQF\ 0RQHWDU\SROLF\ 'RPHVWLFGLVWULEXWLYHHIIHFW &KDOOHQJH
Socialist planned development 8QIDYRUDEOH 'RPHVWLF +LJK 8QIDYRUDEOH 2YHUYDOXHG /RRVH (TXDOL]LQJ /RZUHWXUQRQLQYHVWPHQW
Table 7.8 &RPSDULVRQRIIRXUGHYHORSPHQWPRGHOV Import substitution industrialization 8QIDYRUDEOH 'RPHVWLF /RZ )DYRUDEOH 2YHUYDOXHG /RRVH 3RODUL]LQJ 6PDOOVL]HRIGRPHVWLF PDUNHW
Export-oriented industrialization )DYRUDEOH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO +LJK 8QIDYRUDEOH 8QGHUYDOXHG 7LJKW (TXDOL]LQJ )LHUFHFRPSHWLWLRQLQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHW
)DYRUDEOH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO +LJK )DYRUDEOH 8QGHUYDOXHG 7LJKW 3RODUL]LQJ )LHUFHFRPSHWLWLRQLQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHW
FDI-led development
A catch-up strategy? UXSWHG E\ F\FOLFDO UHFHVVLRQV SURWHFWLRQLVP DQG ZDUV /'&V KDG WR UHO\ XSRQ H[SDQVLRQRIWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWWRFDUU\RXWWKHLULQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ,QRUGHUWR QXUWXUHORFDOLQIDQWLQGXVWULHVWKHVHHFRQRPLHVXVXDOO\UDLVHGSURWHFWLRQLVWWDULII EDUULHUVWRVWLÁHIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQ%HVLGHVWDULIISURWHFWLRQWKHJRYHUQPHQWV ZRXOGRIIHUORFDOÀUPVRWKHUIRUPVRIDVVLVWDQFHVXFKDVVXEVLGL]HGÀQDQFLQJDQG SUHIHUHQWLDODFFHVVWRIRUHLJQH[FKDQJH7KHVRFLDOLVWJRYHUQPHQWVHYHQZHQWWR WKHH[WUHPHRIWDNLQJRYHUDOOWKHPHDQVRISURGXFWLRQIURPVRFLHW\DQGDEROLVKLQJDOOPDUNHWVWRFDUU\RXWUDSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQWKURXJKVWDWHSODQQLQJ:KLOH WKHVRFLDOLVWSODQQHGHFRQRPLHVFRQÀVFDWHGWKHORFDOIDFLOLWLHVRI01&VWKH,6, PRGHOHQFRXUDJHG01&VWRMXPSSURWHFWLRQEDUULHUVDQGWRSURGXFHORFDOO\LQ VHFWRUVZKHUHORFDOÀUPVODFNHGWKHFDSLWDORUNQRZOHGJHWRVWDUWXS ,QERWKWKHVRFLDOLVWDQG,6,PRGHOVORFDOFXUUHQF\LVRYHUYDOXHGIRUWKHSXUSRVH RI DFTXLULQJ FKHDSHU LPSRUWV RI RLO UDZ PDWHULDOV DQG FDSLWDO JRRGV IRU ORFDOLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ0RQHWDU\SROLFLHVDUHNHSWORRVHVRWKHJRYHUQPHQWVDUH EHWWHUDEOHWRDIIRUGJHQHURXVVRFLDOH[SHQGLWXUHVDQGKLJKGRPHVWLFZDJHV²ERWK RIZKLFKDUHGHHPHGHVVHQWLDOIRUH[SDQGLQJWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW+RZHYHUDQ RYHUYDOXHGFXUUHQF\GLVFRXUDJHVH[SRUWVDQGORRVHPRQHWDU\SROLFLHVLQYLWHJRYHUQPHQWEXGJHWGHÀFLWVDVZHOODVLQÁDWLRQ7KHVRFLDOLVWHFRQRPLHVDYRLGHGWKHVH SUREOHPVE\HOLPLQDWLQJPRQH\DVWKHPHGLXPRIH[FKDQJH1RQHWKHOHVVWKH\ SDLGWKHSULFHRIKDYLQJLQHIÀFLHQWHFRQRPLHV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKH,6,PRGHOLV XOWLPDWHO\GRRPHGWRVXIIHUK\SHULQÁDWLRQDQGFDSLWDOÁ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ÀWV7KH,6,PRGHOLVFULWLFL]HGIRULWVELDVWRZDUG FDSLWDODQGZRUNHUVLQWKH,6,VHFWRUV7KHVWUDWHJ\XVXDOO\HQODUJHVWKHJDSLQ LQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQEHWZHHQWKH,6,VHFWRUVDQGWKHUHVWRIWKHHFRQRP\7KH)',
Tao OHGPRGHOWKDW&KLQDKDVH[SHULPHQWHGZLWKVHHPVDOVRVRIDUWRKDYHDSRODUL]LQJGLVWULEXWLRQDOHIIHFWRQGHYHORSPHQWRXWFRPHV*LYHQWKDWWKUHHIRXUWKVRI )',LVFRQFHQWUDWHGLQWKHGHYHORSPHQW]RQHVRIWKHWHQFRDVWDOSURYLQFHV)', OHGJURZWKKDVLQWHQVLÀHGWKHSUREOHPRIUHJLRQDOGLVSDULWLHVLQ&KLQD'HVSLWH WKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQW·VUHFHQWHIIRUWDWGHYHORSLQJWKHKLQWHUODQGE\LQFUHDVLQJ LQIUDVWUXFWXUDOH[SHQGLWXUHVUHJLRQDOGLVSDULWLHVKDYHFRQWLQXHGWRJURZ 0HDQZKLOHWKHGHÁ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ÁDWLRQVLQFHUHIRUPVWDUWHG6LQFH PRVWRI&KLQD·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ÀFLHQW DQG UHVRXUFHV ZHUH ZDVWHG (YHQWXDOO\ WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI LQYHQWRULHV DV ZHOO DV EXGJHW GHÀFLWV UHDFKHG D OHYHO WKDW PDGH WUDQVLWLRQ LQHYLWDEOH 7KH GLIÀFXOW\ ZLWKWKH,6,PRGHOLVWKDWGRPHVWLFPDUNHWVDUHVPDOO7KXVWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW IRUFRQVXPSWLRQJRRGVLVHDVLO\VDWXUDWHGZLWKWKHUHVXOWWKDWJRYHUQPHQWVWKDW DGRSWHGWKH,6,VWUDWHJ\ZHUHIRUFHGWRSXUVXHWKH´GHHSHQLQJµRI,6,E\HQFRXUDJLQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ FDSDELOLWLHV LQ EDVLF DQG LQWHUPHGLDWH LQGXVWULHV$V WKHVH LQYHVWPHQWV XVXDOO\ UHTXLUH IRUHLJQ ERUURZLQJ RU PDVVLYH JRYHUQPHQWVSHQGLQJWKHVHHFRQRPLHVVRRQHQFRXQWHUÀQDQFLDOGLIÀFXOWLHV7KH (2, PRGHO UHVXOWV LQ PXFK ORQJHU DQG PRUH LPSUHVVLYH JURZWK WKDQ WKH RWKHU WZR VWUDWHJLHV 7KXV DW RQH SRLQW GHYHORSPHQW HFRQRPLVWV DGYRFDWHG WKH (2, VWUDWHJ\ DV the model IRU ODWH GHYHORSPHQW +RZHYHU VLQFH WKH ODWH V DOO VXFFHVVIXOFDVHVRIWKH(2,PRGHOKDYHHQFRXQWHUHGWKHFKDOOHQJHRIFRPSHWLWLRQ IURPFRXQWULHVWKDWFDQRIIHUFKHDSHUH[SRUWV([SRUWLQGXVWULHVLQWKHVHFRXQWULHV UHVSRQGHGHLWKHUE\PLJUDWLQJWRWKHVHQHZFKDOOHQJHUVIRUSURGXFWLRQRUE\PRYLQJWRRWKHUPRUHSURPLVLQJLQGXVWULHV7KHDGMXVWPHQWLVVRGLIÀFXOWWKDWPRVWRI WKHVHFRXQWULHVKDYHUHFHQWO\H[SHULHQFHGWKHLUVORZHVWJURZWKUDWHVVLQFHWKHLU HFRQRPLFWDNHRIILQWKHV 6WURQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPSHWLWLRQPD\FDWFKXSZLWK&KLQDVRRQ$IWHUDGHFDGH RUVRRIUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWKOHGE\)',LQÁRZVDQGH[SRUWV&KLQDH[SHUL-
A catch-up strategy? HQFHGGHFOLQHVLQERWK)',DQGH[SRUWVLQWKHODWHVUDLVLQJWKHTXHVWLRQRI ZKHWKHUWKHZRUOGPDUNHWLVODUJHHQRXJKWRVXVWDLQWKHUDSLGJURZWKRI&KLQD·V H[SRUWV:KHQRWKHU/'&VVXFKDV9LHWQDP%XUPDDQG,QGLDDOVRMRLQHGWKH FRPSHWLWLRQIRUFKHDSH[SRUWV&KLQDVWLOOGHVSHUDWHO\QHHGHGWKH)',OHGJURZWK WRVSUHDGIURPWKHOLPLWHGFRDVWDOHQFODYHVWRWKHUHVWRIWKHFRXQWU\7KHUHODWLYH GHFOLQHLQ)',LQÁRZVDQGH[SRUWVDWWKHHQGRIWKHVLPPHGLDWHO\DWWUDFWHG WKHDWWHQWLRQRI&KLQHVHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWZKLFKDVDUHVXOWEHJDQWRHQFRXUDJH FRDVWDOORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVWR´XSJUDGHµWKHLUH[SRUWVE\DJJUHVVLYHO\DEVRUELQJ KLJKWHFKLQYHVWPHQWIURP7DLZDQ.RUHDDQG-DSDQDQGDWWKHVDPHWLPHSURYLGLQJ LQFHQWLYHV IRU IRUHLJQ LQYHVWRUV WR PRYH ODERULQWHQVLYH H[SRUWV IXUWKHU LQWR WKH KHDUWODQG 3URJUHVV RQ ERWK IURQWV KDV EHHQ YHU\ VORZ WKXV IDU 0RVW KLJKWHFK LQYHVWRUV PRYHG RQO\ WKHLU PRVW ODERULQWHQVLYH SURGXFWLRQ OLQHV WR &KLQD *LYHQ WKH EDFNZDUGQHVV RI UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW 5 ' IDFLOLWLHV DQGWKHUHJXODWRU\HQYLURQPHQWLQ&KLQDWKHVHKLJKWHFKLQYHVWRUVZRXOGUDWKHU NHHSWKHLU5 'PDUNHWLQJDQGÀQDQFLQJGLYLVLRQVLQWKHLUKRPHFRXQWULHV+RZ ´KLJKWHFKµWKHKLJKWHFK)',LQ&KLQDZLOOEHLVVWLOODQRSHQTXHVWLRQ,QWKH FDVH RI ODERULQWHQVLYH LQGXVWULHV DOWKRXJK ORFDO JRYHUQPHQWV LQ WKH KHDUWODQG KDYHEHHQYHU\DJJUHVVLYHLQDEVRUELQJODERULQWHQVLYH)',WKHPDQDJHPHQWDQG WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ FRVWV IRU H[SRUWV IURP &KLQD·V LQODQG DUHDV DUH VWLOO WRR KLJK WR RYHUFRPH,QWKHHOHYHQ('=VVHWXSLQWKHKLQWHUODQGDEVRUEHGOHVVWKDQ 86ELOOLRQRI)',RQO\DERXWSHUFHQWRIWKH)',DEVRUEHGE\WKHWKLUW\WZR ('=VLQFRDVWDODUHDV7KHUHIRUHLWLVXQFOHDUZKHWKHU&KLQDFDQNHHSLWVH[SRUWV JURZLQJ DW WKH UDWH RI WR SHUFHQW IRU DQRWKHU WHQ \HDUV ,I QRW WKHQ WKH VXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKH)',OHGGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJ\VKRXOGEHTXHVWLRQHG
Conclusion ,Q WKH V &KLQD DFKLHYHG HQYLDEOH HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKURXJK DJJUHVVLYHO\ DEVRUELQJH[SRUWRULHQWHG)',
Tao
Notes 8QGHUSLQQHGE\86KHJHPRQLFSRZHUZRUOGWUDGHH[SDQGHGDWDQDYHUDJHDQQXDO UDWH RI DERXW SHUFHQW EHWZHHQ DQG PXFK KLJKHU WKDQ WKH UDWH RI SHUFHQWGXULQJWKHLQWHUZDUHUDDQGWKHSHUFHQWEHIRUH:RUOG:DU,VHH
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV ,QVWLWXWLRQDOFKDOOHQJHVWRZDUGDQG DJDLQVWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ Saori N. Katada
'HVSLWHEHLQJWKHZRUOG·VODUJHVWFUHGLWRUZLWKDPDVVLYHFXUUHQWDFFRXQWVXUSOXV -DSDQHVH ÀQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ KDV VLJQLÀFDQWO\ ODJJHG EHKLQG WKDW RI RWKHU DGYDQFHG LQGXVWULDO FRXQWULHV 'XULQJ WKH V -DSDQ·V ´ÀQDQFLDO PHVVµ /LQFROQ ZKLFK ZDV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQG UHIRUP WKDW OLPLWHG WKH SOD\ RI FRPSHWLWLYH PDUNHWV ZDV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH WKH PDMRU FDXVH RI WKH FRXQWU\·V UHFHVVLRQ$ORQJ ZLWK WKH EXUVWLQJ RI -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO EXEEOH LQ WKH HDUO\ V ZKLFK VLJQLÀFDQWO\ LQFUHDVHG WKH OHYHO RI QRQSHUIRUPLQJ ORDQV13/V WKHVORZSDFHRIÀQDQFLDOUHVWUXFWXULQJDQGPDFURHFRQRPLFSROLF\ IDLOXUHV SODJXHG WKH -DSDQHVH HFRQRP\ ,W ZDV QRW XQWLO WKH %LJ %DQJ UHIRUPV RI WKDW GRPHVWLF ÀQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ EHJDQ LQ HDUQHVW$V WKLV FKDSWHU VKRZVWKHGHOD\HGÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPVDQGSURORQJHGÀQDQFLDOFULVLVLQ-DSDQDUHD PDQLIHVWDWLRQRILQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDOOHQJHVDQGFRPSOH[ÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVLQZKLFK WKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHKDVDQGZLOOFRQWLQXHWRSOD\DNH\DGDSWLYHUROH )URPWKHHUDRIUDSLGHFRQRPLFJURZWKLQWKHVDQGVWRWKH´ORVW GHFDGHµRIWKHVWKHSROLWLFVRIÀQDQFHKDVDOZD\VEHHQDQLQWHJUDOSDUWRI -DSDQ·VRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFSROLF\7KHFXUUHQWÀQDQFLDOUHVWUXFWXULQJLVQRWRQO\ DERXWVROYLQJWKH13/SUREOHPVRUDERXWWKHIXWXUHFRXUVHRI-DSDQ·VSROLWLFDO HFRQRP\,WLVDOVRXOWLPDWHO\DERXW-DSDQ·VSRVLWLRQLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFHDQG HFRQRPLF UHJLRQDOL]DWLRQ LQ$VLD LQWR WKH WZHQW\ÀUVW FHQWXU\ ,Q WKLV FKDSWHU ,DUJXHWKDWWKHUHKDVEHHQDQHYROXWLRQRIWKHUROHRI-DSDQHVHEDQNVIURPWKH VWRWKHV7KLVWUDQVIRUPDWLRQLQGLFDWHVWKDW-DSDQ·VGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJ\KDVVKLIWHGIURPWKHVWDWHOHG´FRQYR\V\VWHPµWRRQHUHVHPEOLQJDUHJXODWRU\ VWDWHPRGHO7KHLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGSHUVRQDOOLQNDJHVWKDWFRQQHFWHGWKH-DSDQHVH HFRQRPLF EXUHDXFUDF\ ZLWK WKH FRXQWU\·V ODUJH ÀUPV DQG ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV HVSHFLDOO\EDQNVKDVEHHQJUDGXDOO\GLVPDQWOHGERWKIURPWKHLQVLGHDQGIURP WKH RXWVLGH 7KHVH OLQNDJH DUH QRZ EHLQJ VXEVWLWXWHG E\ SROLF\ IUDPHZRUNV RI VXSHUYLVLRQDQGWKHUXOHRIODZDQGSRUWHQGWKHRQVHWRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDWDIXQGDPHQWDOOHYHO%XWLQNHHSLQJZLWKWKHHGLWRUV·HPSKDVLVLQWKLVYROXPHZKDWLV QRWHZRUWK\IRUWKLV´ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQµLVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW·VKDQGV
$QHDUOLHUGUDIWRIWKLVFKDSWHUZDVSUHVHQWHGDWDZRUNVKRSKHOGGXULQJWKH$VVRFLDWLRQIRU$VLDQ 6WXGLHV &RQIHUHQFH$SULO , DFNQRZOHGJH ZLWK WKDQNV KHOSIXO FRPPHQWV JLYHQ E\ DOO WKH SDUWLFLSDQWVRIZRUNVKRSSDUWLFXODUO\P\&KLQDFRXQWHUSDUW.DMD6HKUW,DOVRWKDQN3DEOR+HLGULFK IRUKLVH[FHOOHQWUHVHDUFKDVVLVWDQFH
Katada DUHVWLOOKHDYLO\LQYROYHGLQWKHÀQDQFLDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQSURFHVV$VWKLVFKDSWHU GHWDLOVWKHUHDVRQIRUWKLVKHDY\LQYROYHPHQWLVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWLV DWWHPSWLQJWREDODQFHWKHPDQGDWHVRIÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQVXEVWDQWLDOSRUWLRQV RIZKLFKDUHWDNLQJSODFHDWWKHEHKHVWRISULYDWHVHFWRUDFWRUVZLWKWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVGLFWDWHVRISROLWLFDODQGVRFLDOVWDELOLW\PRVWRIZKLFKLVXQGHUWKHDXVSLFHV RIJRYHUQPHQWDODFWRUV 7KH FKDQJHV LQ -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU FDPH DERXW LQ YDULRXV ZD\V )URP LQVLGHWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQZDVDFWXDOO\LQLWLDWHGE\-DSDQ·VODUJHDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\FRPSHWLWLYHPDQXIDFWXULQJÀUPVZKLFKEHFDPHLQFUHDVLQJO\DEOHWRREWDLQ WKHLU IXQGV IURP VRXUFHV RWKHU WKDQ WKHLU PDLQ EDQNV7KHVH ÀUPV DOVR DJJUHVVLYHO\H[WHQGHGWKHLURYHUVHDVSURGXFWLRQWKURXJKRXWWKHV-DSDQHVHEDQNV ZHUHIRUFHGWRDGMXVWWRWKLVFKDQJLQJVLWXDWLRQ7KH\VRXJKWFXVWRPHUVHOVHZKHUH HVSHFLDOO\ LQ UHDO HVWDWH EXVLQHVVHV IROORZHG ÀUPV DEURDG E\ KHOSLQJ WKHP ÀQDQFHWKHLUIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW)', LQ$VLD DQGSUHVVXUHGWKH-DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQWWRZDUGselective GHUHJXODWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQDQGDVDVXEVWLWXWHIRUWKHLU ORVWFOLHQWV-DSDQHVHEDQNVEHJDQWRVHUYHDVLPSRUWDQWÀQDQFLHUVRIVPDOODQG XVXDOO\XQFRPSHWLWLYHGRPHVWLFEXVLQHVVHV%DQNVDOVRVXSSRUWHGJRRGUHWXUQVRQ WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWERQGV-*%V )URPRXWVLGHVXFFHVVLYHZDYHVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSUHVVXUHVERWKPDUNHWGULYHQ DQGSROLWLFDOZDVKHGXSRQ-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOVKRUHVIURPWKHVWRWKHV DQG WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW HVSHFLDOO\ WKH 0LQLVWU\ RI )LQDQFH 02) ZDV IRUFHGWRWDNHJUDGXDOVWHSVWRZDUGÀQDQFLDOGHUHJXODWLRQ2XWZDUGÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHVZKLFKDOORZHG-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVWRRSHUDWH DEURDGZDVDUHODWLYHO\HDV\SDUW(VSHFLDOO\DWWKHWLPHRIWKHVWURQJ\HQIURP RQWKHRXWÁRZRI-DSDQHVHPRQH\EHFDPHDQLPSRUWDQWFRPSRQHQWLQNHHSLQJ-DSDQ·VFXUUHQF\DSSUHFLDWLRQLQFKHFN0RUHFRPSOLFDWHGKRZHYHUKDVEHHQ WKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIWKH7RN\RPDUNHWLWVHOIZKLFKZRXOGDOORZIRUHLJQHQWLWLHV WRHQWHUDQGRSHUDWHIUHHO\LQ-DSDQDQGWKHUHE\PRVWLPSRUWDQWRIDOOWRFUHDWH WKHSRVVLELOLW\RI´WUXHµDQGJOREDOFRPSHWLWLRQDPRQJÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV7KH ÀQDQFLDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQDORQJZLWKWKH-DSDQHVH´%LJ%DQJµLQWKHVHFRQGKDOIRI WKHVÀQDOO\LQP\MXGJPHQWODXQFKHGWKLVOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSURFHVVLQHDUQHVW &ULWLFDOWRWKHRQVHWRIODWHÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,DUJXHZDVWKHSROLWLFDO G\QDPLFVEHWZHHQWKHJRYHUQPHQWDQGEDQNV$VWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\EHJDQ WRIDFHLQFUHDVLQJPDUNHWSUHVVXUHLQWHUPVRIERWKGHUHJXODWLRQDQGLQFUHDVHG FRPSHWLWLRQIURPDEURDGWKHFRXQWU\·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVWUDQVIRUPHGIURPWKDWRI V\PELRVLVDQGJRYHUQPHQWJXLGDQFHWRRQHRIGHIHQVLYHUHIRUPDQGUHVWUXFWXULQJ $VGHVFULEHGLQJUHDWHUGHWDLOEHORZWKHJRYHUQPHQWKDGWRJUDGXDOO\DGDSWWRWKH IRUFHVRIODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDVGHVFULEHGE\WKHHGLWRUVLQWKLVYROXPHDQGVKLIW LWVUROH7KHUHPDLQGHURIWKHFKDSWHULVDVIROORZV$IWHUEULHÁ\UHYLHZLQJWKH KLVWRU\RIWKHUROHRI-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVVLQFHWKHVWKLVFKDSWHU DQDO\]HVWKHQDWXUHRIÀQDQFLDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVLQFHWKHVDQGDVVHVVHVWKH LQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOIDFWRUVEHKLQGWKRVHFKDQJHV,WWKHQH[DPLQHVWKH-DSDQHVH ÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVRIWKHVWKDWÀQDOO\OHGWKH-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOPDUNHWWRZDUG ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGZKLFKKDVPDGHLWPRUHRSHQWKDQHYHUEHIRUH,QGRLQJVR ,DOVRVKRZKRZWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHKDVEHHQDQGZLOOUHPDLQDNH\DFWRULQPHGLDW-
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV LQJWKHIRUFHVRIÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ/DWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQIRUFHVVWDWHVVXFKDV -DSDQ WR EHFRPH H[WHQVLYHO\ LQYROYHG LQ WKH ÀQDQFLDO UHIRUP SURFHVV EHFDXVH WKHFRVWVRIHFRQRPLFSROLWLFDODQGVRFLDOGLVORFDWLRQDULVLQJIURPOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DUHFRQVLGHUHGH[FHVVLYHZLWKRXWWKHVWDWHUROHLQVPRRWKLQJRXWWKRVHQHJDWLYH LPSDFWV)LQDOO\LQFRQFOXVLRQWKHFKDSWHUDOOXGHVWRWKHUHJLRQDOLPSOLFDWLRQV RI-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQHVSHFLDOO\ZLWKUHIHUHQFHWR&KLQD·VÀQDQFLDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ
Historical survey from the convoy system to “soft” laissez-faire The era of high growth (1950 to 1960s) -DSDQ H[SHULHQFHG HFRQRPLF UHFRYHU\ DQG JURZWK IURP WKH V WKURXJK WKH VGXULQJZKLFKWLPHWKHFRXQWU\·VJURVVQDWLRQDOSURGXFW*13 JUHZDWDQ DYHUDJHUDWHRISHUFHQWSHU\HDU7KLVHFRQRPLFPLUDFOHZDVSDUWLDOO\VXSSRUWHG E\-DSDQ·VXQLTXHÀQDQFLDODUUDQJHPHQWZKLFKFKDQQHOHGPXFKQHHGHGFDSLWDOWR VWUDWHJLFLQGXVWULHV7KLVDUUDQJHPHQWLVEHVWVXPPDUL]HGE\VL[FKDUDFWHULVWLFV )LUVWWKHUHZDVWKHSUHGRPLQDQFHRILQGLUHFWÀQDQFLQJZKLFKPDGHEDQNORDQVWKH SULQFLSDOIRUPRIFRUSRUDWHÀQDQFH6HFRQGWKHJRYHUQPHQWFRQWUROOHGGRPHVWLF LQWHUHVWUDWHV7KLUGH[FKDQJHFRQWUROVSUHYHQWHGLQWHUQDWLRQDODUELWUDJH)RXUWK WKHUHZDVDQLPEDODQFHRIOLTXLGLW\EHWZHHQFLW\EDQNVDGR]HQRUVRODUJHUHWDLO FRPPHUFLDOEDQNV DQGRWKHUHOHPHQWVRIWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP)LIWKWKHUHZHUH RYHUORDQVIURPWKH%DQNRI-DSDQWRWKHFLW\EDQNVWRFRYHUDSDUWRIWKHLUIXQGV VKRUWDJH$QG ÀQDOO\ VL[WK WKHUH ZDV D ELIXUFDWHG V\VWHP RI SULYDWH ÀQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDULHVZLWKFLW\EDQNVOHQGLQJWRODUJHFRUSRUDWLRQVXVXDOO\ZLWKLQWKHLU keiretsu DQGORFDOEDQNVWRVPDOOVFDOHLQGXVWU\ ,QWKLVV\VWHPWKHFRXQWU\·VUHJXODWRU\FRQVWUDLQWVPDGHLWYHU\GLIÀFXOWIRU -DSDQHVH ÀUPV WR GR DQ\WKLQJ HOVH EXW WR ERUURZ KHDYLO\ IURP -DSDQHVH EDQNV ² WKH RXWFRPHLQWHQGHG E\ WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW$OPRVW KDOI RI WKH HQWLUH IXQGVRI-DSDQHVHFRUSRUDWLRQVFDPHLQWKHIRUPRIEDQNORDQV² LQFRPSDULVRQZLWKSHUFHQWLQ)UDQFHDQGSHUFHQWLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGXULQJ WKHVDPHSHULRG&DOGHU 'HVSLWHWKHWLJKWVXSSO\RIFDSLWDOGXULQJWKLV KLJKJURZWKHUD-DSDQHVHEDQNVLQFROODERUDWLRQZLWKWKH02)DQGJRYHUQPHQWDOÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVWKH-DSDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQNDQG([SRUW²,PSRUW%DQN RI-DSDQIRUH[DPSOH SURYLGHGIXQGVWKDWVXSSRUWHGWKHVWUDWHJLFGHYHORSPHQW RI-DSDQ·VFULWLFDOLQGXVWULHV,QUHWXUQ-DSDQHVHEDQNVHQMR\HGKLJKSURÀWDELOLW\ DQGSROLWLFDOOHYHUDJHLQ-DSDQ·VEXVLQHVVDQGSROLWLFDOZRUOG&DOGHU² ,PSRUWDQWO\ RYHUORDQV DQG ORZHU WKDQ PDUNHW LQWHUHVW UDWHV FUHDWHG H[FHVV GHPDQGIRUFDSLWDOZKLFKLQWXUQPDGHLWSRVVLEOHIRUWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW SDUWLFXODUO\WKH02)WRDOORFDWHIXQGVWRSUHIHUUHGVHFWRUV 7KURXJKRXWWKRVH\HDUVPRVWRIWKHVHFLW\EDQNVDOVRVHUYHGDVPDLQEDQNV WRWKHLULQkeiretsuLQGXVWULHV$OWKRXJKWKHUHLVQRIRUPDORUOHJDOGHÀQLWLRQD PDLQEDQNUHODWLRQVKLSLVXQGHUVWRRGDV´DORQJWHUPUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDÀUP DQGDSDUWLFXODUEDQNIURPZKLFKWKHÀUPREWDLQVLWVODUJHVWVKDUHRIERUURZLQJVµ
Number of enterprises 1965 1990
Main bank 1965 1990
2WKHUJURXSÀQDQFLDODIÀOLDWHV 1965 1990
Total group 1965
1990
6RXUFH7DND\DQDJL+LWRVKLHG Kigyo Keiretsu Soran (Almanac of Corporate Industrial Groups),7R\R.HL]L6KLQSRVKD²FLWHGLQ&DOGHU
Keiretsu 0LWVXELVKL 6XPLWRPR 0LWVXL )XML 6DQZD 'DL,FKL
Table 8.1 KeiretsuDVVRXUFHVRIÀQDQFHIRUPHPEHUFRUSRUDWLRQVDQG
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV $RNLet al $V7DEOHVKRZVDWWKHVDPHWLPHWKHVHVDPHPDLQEDQNV SOD\HGDPDMRUUROHLQFRUSRUDWHPRQLWRULQJDQGJRYHUQDQFH7KH\VXSSOLHG WR SHUFHQW RI WKH IXQGLQJ QHHGV RI keiretsu LQGXVWULHV LQ DOWKRXJK WKH SURSRUWLRQKDVGHFUHDVHGJUDGXDOO\RYHUWKH\HDUV 8QGHUO\LQJWKHLPSRUWDQWUROHRI-DSDQHVHEDQNVLQVXSSRUWLQJ-DSDQ·VUDSLG LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ ZDV -DSDQ·V VRFDOOHG ´FRQYR\ V\VWHP gosô sendan hôshiki µ LQÀQDQFH7KHV\VWHPZDVVXSSRUWHGE\WKH02)DVLWFUHDWHGDVLJQLÀFDQWO\ KLJK FHLOLQJ IRU HQWU\ WKURXJK LWV ULJLG FRQWURO RQ OLFHQVLQJ +RZHYHU RQFH JUDQWHGULJKWVWRRSHUDWHFLW\EDQNVZHUHLPSOLFLWO\DVVXUHGE\WKH02)DJDLQVW ´H[FHVVLYH FRPSHWLWLRQµ DPRQJ WKHPVHOYHV DQG DJDLQVW EDQN IDLOXUHV$OO FLW\ EDQNV ZHUH WUHDWHG HTXDOO\ LQ WHUPV RI KRZ PXFK UHQW WKH\ FRXOG DFFUXH IURP WKHDUUDQJHGROLJRSRO\VRWKDW´FRPSHWLWLYHEDQNVZHUHSUHYHQWHGIURPPRYLQJ IRUZDUGDJJUHVVLYHO\LQRUGHUWRSUHYHQWWKHOHDVWFRPSHWLWLYHRQHVIURPIDLOLQJµ *ULPHV 0RVW RI WKH ÀQDQFLDO SROLFLHV ZHUH LPSOHPHQWHG WKURXJK WKHLQIRUPDOQHWZRUNEHWZHHQWKH02)DQGÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV7KHDFWLYLWLHV RIEDQNVZHUHXQGHUWKHMXULVGLFWLRQRIWKH%DQNLQJ%XUHDXRIWKH02)ZKLOH VHFXULW\ÀUPVIROORZHGWKHJXLGDQFHRIWKH6HFXULW\%XUHDX,QERWKFDVHVWKH 02)EXUHDXVPDGHH[WHQVLYHXVHRI´DGPLQLVWUDWLYHJXLGDQFHµWRJXLGHEDQNV DQGWRVHFXUHFRRSHUDWLRQLQIRUPDOO\ ,QVXPPDU\GXULQJWKHKLJKJURZWKSHULRGWKHVWDWHHQPHVKHGLQDÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQDOV\VWHPRILWVRZQPDNLQJZDVFHQWUDOWRÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV-DSDQ·V VWDWH JXLGDQFH PDQDJHG WR SURPRWH WKH FRXQWU\·V HFRQRPLF JURZWK HVSHFLDOO\ LQWKHIRUPRIVXSSRUWLQJORQJWHUPLQYHVWPHQWWKURXJKLWVOLQNDJHVDPRQJWKH 02)EDQNVDQGPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWULHV7KHSROLWLFLDQVIURPWKHUXOLQJ/LEHUDO 'HPRFUDWLF3DUW\/'3 DOVRVXSSRUWHGVXFKLQIRUPDOLQVWLWXWLRQEXWGLGVRE\ QRWLQWHUYHQLQJLQWKHQHWZRUNXQOHVVWKHLULQWHUYHQWLRQVZHUHFULWLFDOO\QHHGHG 2QWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUVLGHEDQNVHVSHFLDOO\PDLQEDQNVSOD\HGDÀQDQFLHUFXP PDQDJHUUROHLQLQGXVWULDOGHYHORSPHQWRIODUJHÀUPVDQGEXVLQHVVJURXSV7KLV H[FOXVLYH LQIRUPDO DQG QRQWUDQVSDUHQW UHODWLRQVKLS ZKLFK VXSSRUWHG -DSDQ·V UDSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQKDGWRHQGVRRQ,URQLFDOO\WKHHQGFDPHQRWEHFDXVHRI LWVIDLOXUHEXWWKDQNVWRLWVYHU\VXFFHVVDVWKHFRXQWU\·VPDMRUPDQXIDFWXULQJ LQGXVWULHVEHFDPHVXFFHVVIXODQGFUHGLWZRUWK\,QRWKHUZRUGV-DSDQ·VFRPPHUFLDOVXFFHVVHVFUHDWHGDQLQWHUQDOIRUFHSXVKLQJWRZDUGHFRQRPLFDQGÀQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ %LJÀUPVH[LWEDQNVYRLFH"ODWHVWKURXJKV 7KH FHQWUDO UROH WKDW WKH JRYHUQPHQW DQG EDQNV SOD\HG LQ -DSDQ·V UDSLG LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQDQGJURZWKWUDQVIRUPHGJUDGXDOO\DVPDQ\-DSDQHVHFRUSRUDWLRQV EHJDQDFFHVVLQJIXQGVHOVHZKHUH$IWHUUHYLVLRQVWRWKH/DZRQ)RUHLJQ6HFXULW\ )LUPVLQWKHVYDULRXVUHVWULFWLRQVRQRYHUVHDVIXQGDFTXLVLWLRQZHUHOLIWHG 7KLVOHGWRDGUDPDWLFLQFUHDVHLQWKHWRWDODPRXQWRIRYHUVHDVÀQDQFLQJDWWDLQHG E\-DSDQHVHFRUSRUDWLRQVIURPELOOLRQLQWRWULOOLRQLQ02) /DXUHQFH² DUJXHVWKDW-DSDQHVHFRUSRUDWLRQVEHJDQWDNLQJ VXFKDQ´H[LWRSWLRQµEHFDXVHRIWKHKLJKFRVWVRIORDQVDQGFXPEHUVRPHFRUSRUDWH
Katada ERQGV LVVXLQJ SURFHGXUHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK -DSDQ·V KLJKO\ UHJXODWHG ÀQDQFLDO PDUNHW)XUWKHUPRUHDVWKH\HQGRXEOHGLWVYDOXHDJDLQVWWKH86GROODUDIWHUWKH 3OD]D$FFRUG DORQJ ZLWK VWURQJ SURWHFWLRQLVW VHQWLPHQWV DJDLQVW -DSDQ·V H[SRUWGRPLQDWLRQLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV -DSDQHVHPDQXIDFWXULQJFRPSDQLHVEHJDQ WDNLQJ WKHLUPDQXIDFWXULQJEDVHV DEURDG ERWK WR WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG WR$VLD WKXV SK\VLFDOO\ H[LWLQJ IURP -DSDQ7KLV DOVR KDG D VWURQJ LPSDFW RQ -DSDQHVH EDQNVDVWKH\IDFHGWKHWKUHDWRIORVLQJWKHLUEHVWFXVWRPHUV 7KHH[LWRSWLRQRIÀUPVDOVRFDPHLQDQRWKHUIRUP7KHSURFHVVRIGLVLQWHU PHGLDWLRQ WRRN SODFH GXULQJ WKH VDPH SHULRG ZKHQ ODUJH ÀUPV VKLIWHG WKHLU VRXUFHV RI IXQGV IURP EDQN ERUURZLQJ WR HTXLW\ ÀQDQFLQJ $V HDUO\ DV ELJEXVLQHVV·VUHOLDQFHRQEDQNORDQVGHFOLQHGWRSHUFHQWRILWVWRWDOIXQGV ²DYHUDJH IURPSHUFHQWRQO\ÀYH\HDUVSUHYLRXVO\²DYHUDJH +DPDGDDQG+RULXFKL $OWKRXJKODUJHEDQNOHQGLQJFRQWLQXHG LQWKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHVKHOSHGE\ORZLQWHUHVWUDWHVODUJHFRUSRUDWLRQV ZHUHDEOHWRREWDLQDODUJHVRXUFHRIIXQGLQJWKURXJK-DSDQHVHVWRFNPDUNHWGXULQJWKLVEXEEOHSHULRG )DFLQJWKHH[LWVWUDWHJLHVRIWKHLUEHVWFOLHQWV-DSDQHVHEDQNVUHVSRQGHGLQPXOWLSOHZD\VDOORIZKLFKOHGWRIXUWKHUGLVLQWHJUDWLRQRIWKHÀQDQFH²PDQXIDFWXULQJ OLQNDJH)LUVW-DSDQHVHEDQNVIROORZHGFXVWRPHUVDEURDGSDUWLFXODUO\WRÀQDQFLDOO\OHVVGHYHORSHGDUHDVRI$VLDDQG/DWLQ$PHULFD,QWKRVHDUHDV-DSDQHVH EDQNVDQGWKHLUVXEVLGLDULHVIXQGHGFORVHWRSHUFHQWRI-DSDQHVHFRPSDQLHV· LQLWLDOIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW0,7, ,QDGGLWLRQWKHQXPEHURIRYHUVHDV VXEVLGLDULHVRI-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVLQFUHDVHGGUDPDWLFDOO\LQWKHV VSXUUHGE\WKH'HFHPEHUFKDQJHVLQ)RUHLJQ([FKDQJHDQG7UDGH&RQWURO /DZ UHJDUGLQJ WKH FKDQJH WR IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO WUDQVDFWLRQV IURP ´FORVHG LQ SULQFLSOHµWR´IUHHXQOHVVSURKLELWHGµ2]DZD 7KH VHFRQG UHVSRQVH E\ -DSDQHVH EDQNV FDPH LQ WKH IRUP RI VKLIWLQJ WKHLU FXVWRPHUEDVHIURPODUJHPDQXIDFWXULQJÀUPVWRWKHERRPLQJUHDOHVWDWHVHFWRU WKXVIXHOLQJ-DSDQ·V´EXEEOHµHFRQRP\RIWKHODWHVZKLFKODWHUEHFDPHD VRXUFHRIWKH13/V)LJXUHFOHDUO\GHPRQVWUDWHVWKLVWUHQG:KLOHWKHWRWDO DPRXQWRIEDQNORDQVLQFUHDVHGIURPWULOOLRQWRWULOOLRQEHWZHHQ DQGWKHDPRXQWOHQWWRUHDOHVWDWHDOPRVWWULSOHGIURPWULOOLRQWR WULOOLRQ 0HDQWLPH WKH YDOXH RI ORDQV WR WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ VHFWRU GHFUHDVHG VOLJKWO\IURPWULOOLRQLQWRMXVWRYHUWULOOLRQLQWKHODWHV&LW\ EDQNV DOVR H[WHQGHG WKHLU ORDQV WR PHGLXP DQG VPDOO ÀUPV DV ZHOO DV IXQGLQJ QXPHURXV´VKDG\µGHDOV)XUWKHUPRUHDVPRUHDQGPRUHÀUPVWXUQHGWRGLUHFW HTXLW\ ÀQDQFLQJ EDQNV LQWHQVLÀHG WKHLU HIIRUWV WR ORZHU WKH EDUULHUV FUHDWHG E\$UWLFOHRIWKH6HFXULWLHVDQG([FKDQJH/DZVRWKDWWKH\FRXOGRSHUDWHLQ ERRPLQJVHFXULW\XQGHUZULWLQJEXVLQHVV/DXUHQFH² ,Q-XQH WKH %DQNLQJ$FW ZDV DPHQGHG WR JLYH EDQNV PRUH IUHHGRP LQ WKHLU RSHUDWLRQ )RUH[DPSOHWKHUHJXODWLRQRQEDQNV·EUDQFKHVWDEOLVKPHQWZDVUHOD[HGDQGWKH UDQJHRIEDQNDFWLYLWLHVZDVH[WHQGHG%\EDQNVZHUHDOORZHGWRVHOOQHZO\ LVVXHGQDWLRQDOERQGVWRWKHLUFXVWRPHUVDQGWRDFWDVGHDOHUVLQWKHQDWLRQDOERQG PDUNHW%DQNVZHUHDOVRSHUPLWWHGWRLQWURGXFHQHZÀQDQFLDOLQVWUXPHQWVVXFKDV
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV
Figure 8.1 %DQNORDQVWRPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGUHDOHVWDWHVHFWRUV²6RXUFH%DQNRI -DSDQ7RNHL%LQUDQFLWHGLQ0LKDVKLet al
QHJRWLDEOHFHUWLÀFDWHVRIGHSRVLWDQGWLPHGHSRVLWVRIVSHFLÀFGXUDWLRQ+DPDGD DQG+RULXFKL² 7KH WKLUG DVSHFW RI WKH -DSDQHVH EDQNV· UHVSRQVH ZDV WR SUHVVXUH WKH 02) WR FKDQJH -DSDQ·V VWULQJHQW ÀQDQFLDO UHJXODWRU\ HQYLURQPHQW$V LV FOHDU IURP WKH GLVFXVVLRQ DERYH WKH PRYHV E\ EDQNV REYLRXVO\ DURVH RXW RI WKH IDFW WKDW WKH\ZDQWHGWRKDYHIUHHGRPWRSXUVXHWKHLULQWHUHVWVERWKLQWHUPVRIH[SDQGHG EXVLQHVVRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQWRLQWHUQDWLRQDORSHUDWLRQVDQGVHFXULWLHVEXVLQHVVDQG LQWHUPVRINHHSLQJWKHLUWUDGLWLRQDOFXVWRPHUEDVHZLWKELJFRUSRUDWLRQVLQWDFW 0HDQZKLOH EDQNV ZHUH QRW LQWHUHVWHG LQ KDYLQJ WKH W\SHV RI GHUHJXODWLRQ WKDW r ZRXOGH[SRVHWKHPWRPRUHHQWUDQWVWR theirPDUNHW(YHQGXULQJWKLVGHUHJXOD WLRQSHULRGRIWKHV-DSDQHVHEDQNVH[SHFWHGWKH02)WRFRQWLQXHLWVFRQYR\ V\VWHPRISURWHFWLRQ -DSDQHVH EDQNV· YRLFH GHPDQGLQJ GHUHJXODWLRQ UHVRQDWHG ZLWK VRPH RI WKH 02)·V FRQFHUQV LQ WKH ODWH V DQG WKH ÀUVW KDOI RI WKH V 2QFH DJDLQ WKLVYHU\SURFHVVKLJKOLJKWHGWKHFHQWUDOLW\RIWKHJRYHUQPHQWLQPHGLDWLQJWKH SUHVVXUHVIRUODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ7KHÀUVWRI02)·VFRQFHUQVZDVLQFUHDVLQJWKH LVVXDQFH RI -*%V VLQFH WKH PLGV7KH RLO FULVLV OHG WR PXFK VORZHU HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGWKHPDWXULQJ-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\IRUFHGWKHJRYHUQPHQWWR SURYLGHPRUHIRUWKHSHRSOHLQWKHIRUPVRIEHWWHUVRFLDOVHUYLFHV%RWKSXWDKLJK GHPDQGRQ-DSDQ·VÀVFDOSROLF\ $VWKHYDOXHRIWKH-*%VLQFUHDVHGWKH02) KDGWRWXUQWRFLW\EDQNVIRUWKHLUDEVRUSWLRQ %HFDXVHXQGHU$UWLFOHEDQNV ZHUHQRWSHUPLWWHGWRVHOOERQGVWKH02)KDGWRPDNHDQH[FHSWLRQWRWKHUXOHLQ WRDOORZEDQNVWRVHOOERQGVRQWKHRSHQPDUNHW7KLVZDVWKHÀUVWLQVWDQFH
Katada RIERXQGDULHVEHWZHHQEDQNVDQGVHFXULW\EXVLQHVVEHLQJGLVPDQWOHG/DXUHQFH )XUWKHUPRUHDVWKHQHHGWRLVVXH-*%VFRQWLQXHGWKH02)EHJDQ WRVHHLQWHUQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQDQGÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDVDQDWWUDFWLYHRSWLRQWKDW ZRXOGH[SDQGWKHVKRUWWHUPPDUNHWIRUWKH-*%V69RJHO 7KLVZDV ZKHUHWKHLQWHUHVWVRIWKH02)DQG-DSDQHVHEDQNVFRQYHUJHG ,QDGGLWLRQWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDGVLQFH²IDFHGSUHVVXUHIURP WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWROLEHUDOL]HLWVÀQDQFLDOPDUNHW:LWKWKHFRQWLQXLQJVWUHQJWK RIWKH86GROODULQWKHHDUO\VWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHVVXIIHUHGIURPDPDVVLYH WUDGHGHÀFLWZLWK-DSDQ7KHORJLFZDVWKDWLIWKH-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOPDUNHWZHUH WROLEHUDOL]HGWKHUHZRXOGEHKLJKHUGHPDQGIRU\HQGHQRPLQDWHGLQVWUXPHQWV $VDUHVXOWLWZDVH[SHFWHGWKDWWKHQWKH\HQZRXOGEHDEOHWRSOD\DJUHDWHUUROH DVDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOFXUUHQF\DQGLQFUHDVHLWVVXSSO\DWWKHVDPHWLPHLWZRXOG VWUHQJWKHQ LWV UHODWLYH YDOXH DJDLQVW WKH GROODU$OWKRXJK WKLV ORJLF PLJKW KDYH EHHQGXELRXVZKHQLWFRPHVWRWKHFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPDQGWKH VWUHQJWKRIWKH\HQ86SUHVVXUHZDVSROLWLFDOO\LPSRUWDQWLQSURGGLQJÀQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ -DSDQ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\PLQGHG RIÀFLDOV RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )LQDQFH %XUHDX RI WKH 02) $OWKRXJK QRW DFWXDOO\ LPSOHPHQWHGWRDQ\JUHDWH[WHQWWKH
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV RSHUDWHGLQ$VLDLQWKHODWHVDVWKHULVLQJ\HQSRZHURIWKHVHQDEOHG EDQNVWRPDLQWDLQWKHLUODUJHSUHVHQFHDEURDGGXULQJWKLVWLPH)LQDQFLDOSROLWLFV EHWZHHQWKHVWDWHDQGSULYDWHEDQNVDOVRVKLIWHGSDUWLDOO\LQIDYRURIEDQNVDQG SURYLGHG WKHP ZLWK LQFUHDVHG RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR YRLFH WKHLU SUHIHUHQFHV 2Q WKH RWKHUKDQGWKH02)VWLOOPDQDJHGWRNHHSDIDLUO\WLJKWFRQWURORYHUWKHQDWXUH RI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKHUH ZHUH FOHDU VLJQV RI WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH GRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOHQYLURQPHQW7KHYLVLELOLW\DQGSROLWLFRHFRQRPLFLPSOLFDWLRQ RIVXFKWUDQVIRUPDWLRQHPHUJHGLQFRQFUHWHIRUPVDIWHUWKHEXUVWRIWKH-DSDQ·V HFRQRPLFEXEEOHLQWKHHDUO\V The demise of the “Bankers’ Kingdom” (1990s)14 0DQ\VTXHH]HVRQWKHRSHUDWLRQRI-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVFDPHDOPRVW VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ LQ WKH HDUO\ V 7KH ÀUVW DQG PRVW REYLRXV RI WKH VTXHH]HV FDPHIURPWKHHQGRI-DSDQ·V´EXEEOHµHFRQRP\/DXUHQFHVXFFLQFWO\GHVFULEHV WKH G\QDPLFV RI KRZ EDQNV GUDPDWLFDOO\ H[SDQGHG WKHLU ORDQ H[SRVXUH LQ WKH VHFRQGKDOIRIWKHV 7KHXSZDUGVSLUDOLQDVVHWSULFHVZDVGULYHQE\WKHIDFWWKDWEDQNVFRXOGXVH ERWKVKDUHVDQGSURSHUW\DVFROODWHUDOIRUPDNLQJORDQV7KH\FRXOGWKHQXVH WKLVFROODWHUDOWRPDNHLQYHVWPHQWVLQVWRFNVDQGORDQVWRUHDOHVWDWHFRPSDQLHV6WRFNPDUNHWLQYHVWPHQWVSXVKHGXSHTXLW\SULFHVZKLFKLQFUHDVHGWKH YDOXHRIWKHEDQNV·DVVHWEDVHDOORZLQJWKHPWRPDNHPRUHORDQV%DQNOHQGLQJWRUHDOHVWDWHFRPSDQLHVSXVKHGXSODQGSULFHVDVEX\HUVFRPSHWHGIRU WKHOLPLWHGDPRXQWRIXVDEOHODQGDURXQG7RN\R7KHLQFUHDVHLQODQGSULFHV ERRVWHGWKHYDOXHRIWKHEDQNV·SURSHUW\KROGLQJVZKLFKDOVRLQFUHDVHGWKHLU DVVHWEDVHDOVRDOORZLQJWKHPWRPDNHPRUHORDQV /DXUHQFH ,WLVTXLWHREYLRXVIURPWKLVPHFKDQLVPZK\EDQNVDIWHUWKHFROODSVHRIODQG SULFHVDQGVWRFNPDUNHWLQWKHÀUVWWZR\HDUVRIWKHVKDGPDVVLYHGLIÀFXOW\ ERWK ZLWK DFFXPXODWHG 13/V DQG LQ H[WHQGLQJ ORDQV7KH ÀJXUH DQQRXQFHG LQ WKH PLGGOH RI SXW WKH WRWDO RI -DSDQ·V XQKHDOWK\ ORDQV DW WULOOLRQ RU 86ELOOLRQDWWRWKHGROODU 7KHVHFRQGDQGDVVRFLDWHGGLIÀFXOW\FDPHIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDODJUHHPHQWFRQFOXGHGDWWKH%DQNIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO6HWWOHPHQWV%,6 LQ:LGHO\NQRZQDV WKH%,6FDSLWDODGHTXDF\VWDQGDUGRUBIS-kisei WKLVLQWHUQDWLRQDOUXOHDGRSWHG E\FHQWUDOEDQNHUVDWWKH*URXSRI7HQFRXQWULHV·PHHWLQJRIWKH%,6HVWDEOLVKHG D PLQLPXP UDWLR SHUFHQW RI FDSLWDO WR EDQNV· DVVHWV IRU DOO EDQNV RSHUDWLQJ LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ 7KH FHQWUDO EDQNHUV DJUHHG WR HQIRUFH WKLV VWDQGDUG ZRUOGZLGH E\WKHHQGRIDQGWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWREWDLQHGWKHH[WHQVLRQRIWKH GHDGOLQH WR WKH HQG RI LWV ÀVFDO \HDU LQ QDPHO\ 0DUFK 7KH IXQGDPHQWDOSXUSRVHRILQWURGXFLQJVXFKDVWDQGDUGZDVWRSURWHFWWUDQVQDWLRQDOEDQNV IURPRYHUH[SRVLQJWKHPVHOYHVWRIRUHLJQOHQGLQJ,WLVQRWHGQHYHUWKHOHVVWKDW WKHUXOHZDVSDUWLFXODUO\FRQVWUDLQLQJWR-DSDQHVHEDQNVLQUHJDUGVWRWKHLUIXWXUH
Katada RYHUVHDVOHQGLQJDFWLYLWLHVEHFDXVHWKHOHYHORIWKHLUFDSLWDOWRWKHLUDVVHWVZDV UHODWLYHO\ORZ3ULRUWRWKHDGRSWLRQRIWKHUXOHVXFKDORZOHYHORIFDSLWDOKDG JLYHQ-DSDQHVHEDQNVPRUHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVEXWZLWKDGGHGULVN,QWKHV WKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHVWDQGDUGDORQJZLWKWKHFROODSVHRI-DSDQHVHVWRFNSULFHV ZKLFKIXUWKHUORZHUHGWKH-DSDQHVHEDQNV·FDSLWDOKDPSHUHGWKHLUOHQGLQJDFWLYLWLHV.DSVWHLQ 7KHFUHGLWFUXQFKRIWKHVLQ-DSDQZDVFORVHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH -DSDQHVH EDQNV· HIIRUWV WR FRPSO\ ZLWK WKLV VWDQGDUG ,I D EDQN·VFDSLWDOVKULQNVGXHWRLWVGHFOLQLQJVWRFNSULFHVWKHEDQNKDVWRFDOOLQLWV ORDQVLQRUGHUWRPDLQWDLQWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO 7KLV VTXHH]H DOVR KDG SURIRXQG LPSOLFDWLRQV RQ EDQN²ÀUP UHODWLRQV IURP WKHVRQ$QHFGRWDOHYLGHQFHOHDGVXVWRWKHGHFOLQHRIFURVVVKDUHKROGLQJ DUUDQJHPHQW DPRQJ keiretsu JURXSV SDUWLFXODUO\ DV WKHLU PDLQ EDQNV EHJLQ WR GXPSVWRFNVRIWKHLUkeiretsuJURXSFRPSDQLHV$VGLVFXVVHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQ LQFUHDVHGPHUJHUVDPRQJEDQNVDQGRWKHUÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDFURVVWKHkeiretsu OLQHVIURPIXUWKHUHQFRXUDJHGWKHGHPLVHRIWKHV\VWHPRIPDLQEDQNDQG keiretsu7KHFUHGLWFUXQFKZDVDOVRDZRUULVRPHSUREOHPIRUWKHJRYHUQPHQW 7KH LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHU RI EDQNUXSWFLHV DQG ULVLQJ XQHPSOR\PHQW SXW SROLWLFDO SUHVVXUHRQWKH/'3DQGÀVFDOSUHVVXUHRQWKH02) 7KHWKLUGVTXHH]HFDPHIURPYDULRXVÀQDQFLDOVFDQGDOVWKDWHPHUJHGGXULQJ WKLVSHULRGZKLFKSXWWKHEXONRIWKHEODPHRQ-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDQG ODWHU HYHQ RQ WKH 02) 7KH VFDQGDOV UDQJHG IURP WKH 5HFUXLW &RVPRV VFDQGDO WR WKH7RN\R VWRFN PDUNHW ORVV FRPSHQVDWLRQ VFDQGDO RI DV ZHOO DVYDULRXVDFFXVDWLRQVUHJDUGLQJtobashiSUDFWLFHVDPRQJWKH%LJ)RXUVHFXULW\ ÀUPV7KRVHVFDQGDOVPDVVLYHO\GDPDJHGWKHLPDJHRIVHFXULW\ÀUPVVXFKDV 1RPXUD6HFXULWLHVIRUGHWDLOVVHH/DXUHQFH² 7KHVHFRQGDQGPRUH GDPDJLQJFOXVWHURIVFDQGDOVFDPHLQWKHPLGGOHRIWKHVDQGFHQWHUHGRQ WKH jusen KRXVLQJ ÀQDQFH FRUSRUDWLRQV GHEDFOH 7KH 86 ELOOLRQ EDLORXW RI WKHVH RYHUH[WHQGHG FRUSRUDWLRQV ZDV FRQGXFWHG LQ XQGHU WKH DXVSLFHV RI WKH /'3 LQ VXSSRUW RI WKH SROLWLFDOO\ LPSRUWDQW nokyo DJULFXOWXUDO FRRSHUDWLYHV ZKLFKIXQGHGPRVWRIWKHjusenORDQV7KHFRQVHTXHQFHRIVXFKSROLWLFDO PDQHXYHULQJUHODWHGWRWKH´EDLORXWµZDVWKDW´>E\S@DLQWLQJWKHEDQNVDQGWKH 02)DVSXEOLFHQHPLHVWKH/'3VNLOOIXOO\GHÁHFWHGSXEOLFRXWUDJHRYHUWKHXVH RI WD[SD\HU PRQH\ DZD\ IURP LWVHOI DQG WKH DJULFXOWXUDO FRRSHUDWLYHVµ $P\[ 7KHÀQDOVHWVRIVFDQGDOVZHUHUHODWHGWRWKHFROOXVLYHUHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ 02) RIÀFLDOV DQG WKH EDQNV· MOF-tan 02) OLDLVRQ HPSOR\HHV ,Q -DQXDU\DQG)HEUXDU\VHYHUDO02)RIÀFLDOVZKRZHUHLQFKDUJHRIEDQN LQVSHFWLRQVZHUHDUUHVWHGIRUKDYLQJDFFHSWHGH[FHVVLYHJLIWVIURPWKRVHEDQNHUV LQUHWXUQIRUDGYDQFHLQIRUPDWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWK02)LQVSHFWLRQV%HFDXVHWKHVH LQVSHFWLRQVDUHPHDQWWREHFRQGXFWHGZLWKRXWZDUQLQJWROLPLWEDQNV·DELOLWLHV WRKLGHLQIRUPDWLRQVXFKFROOXVLRQZDVFRQVLGHUHGWREHWKHXOWLPDWHVLJQRIDQ H[FHVVLYHDQGKDUPIXOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHWZRHQWLWLHV $VDUHVXOWRIWKRVHVTXHH]HVWKHSRZHURIWKH-DSDQHVHEDQNVDQGWKHLUOLQNV WR -DSDQ·V FHQWUDO SROLF\PDNLQJ DSSDUDWXV GZLQGOHG 2ZLQJ WR WKH FROOXVLRQ VFDQGDOVDQGWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDQJHVZLWKLQWKHÀQDQFLDOEXUHDXFUDF\GLVFXVVHG EHORZEDQNVORVWDFFHVVWRWKHRQFH DOPLJKW\02)%DQNVDOVRKDGWKHLURZQ
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV UHDVRQVIRUNHHSLQJWKHLUGLVWDQFH$IWHUWKHjusenGHEDFOH-DSDQHVHEDQNVZHUH VRIXULRXVDWKRZWKH/'3XVHGEDQNVDVWKHVFDSHJRDWWKDWWKH%DQNHUV)HGHUDWLRQ VWRSSHG WKH SUDFWLFH RI SURYLGLQJ FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH /'3 WKURXJK .HLGDQUHQ -DSDQ )HGHUDWLRQ RI %XVLQHVV 2UJDQL]DWLRQV &DOGHU $P\[ 7KH FUHGLW FUXQFK H[DFHUEDWHG E\ WKH %,6 VWDQGDUG DQG WKH UHVWUXFWXULQJ RI ÀQDQFLDO DQG LQGXVWULDO VHFWRUV GLVUXSWHG WKH FORVH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ EDQNV DQG LQGXVWU\ DV ZHOO DV EHWZHHQ WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU DQG WKH JRYHUQPHQW 8OWLPDWHO\ WKHVH SURFHVVHV GLPLQLVKHG WKH ´PDLQ EDQNµ IXQFWLRQ RI WKH EDQNV ZKLFKKDGHIIHFWLYHO\WKZDUWHGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUIRUPRVWRI WKHSRVWZDUSHULRG
*OREDOL]DWLRQÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQDO transformation22 Financial globalization and liberalization of the Tokyo market 7KH-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUKDVPDGHXVHRILQVWUXPHQWVDQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVDEURDG WRLQFUHDVHLWVEXVLQHVVDQGSROLWLFDOOHYHUDJHLQ-DSDQ$WWKHWLPHRIÀQDQFLDO FULVHVDEURDGVXFKDVWKH/DWLQ$PHULFDQGHEWFULVLVRIWKHV-DSDQHVHEDQNV ZHUH DEOH WR XWLOL]H WKHLU WUDQVQDWLRQDO OLQNDJH ZLWK 86 EDQNV WR LQFUHDVH WKHLU RZQSRZHURYHU02)·VGHFLVLRQVWRVWHSLQ.DWDGD6WDOOLQJV $V LQWHUQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQ RI WKH EDQNV SURFHHGHG ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV LQWHUQDOL]HG ERWKWKHEHQHÀWVDQGGDQJHUVRIÀQDQFLDOJOREDOL]DWLRQDQGWUDQVPLWWHGWKHPWR WKHGRPHVWLFDUHQD 7KHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGGHUHJXODWLRQWUHQGVWKDWLPPHUVHG-DSDQRYHUWKHSDVW WZRGHFDGHVKDYHPDGHWKHFRXQWU\DQGLWVSROLWLFDODXWKRULW\YLVLEO\XQDEOHWR FRQWUROWKHFRXQWU\·VHFRQRP\GHVSLWHWKH´HQLJPDWLFV\VWHPµWKDWLVVDLGWRKDYH ORQJH[FOXGHGIRUHLJQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKHFRXQWU\·VHFRQRPLFGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ (VSHFLDOO\ LPSRUWDQW LV WKH LQFUHDVLQJ SUHVHQFH RI IRUHLJQ HQWLWLHV LQ -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDODFWLYLWLHVIURPWKHPLGV$ORQJZLWKWKHRXWZDUGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI WKHVWKHJRYHUQPHQWDOVRFKDQJHGUHJXODWLRQVWRDGPLWIRUHLJQSUHVHQFHLQ WKH7RN\RÀQDQFLDOPDUNHWV%\IRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVZHUHDOORZHGWRLVVXH ERQGV LQ -DSDQ DQG E\ WKH PLGV IRUHLJQ ÀUPV ZHUH DGPLWWHG WR WKH WUXVW EDQNLQJEXVLQHVVDQGWRWKH7RN\R6WRFN([FKDQJH 7KHERRPLQJ7RN\RPDUNHWDWWUDFWHGWKHLQWHUHVWRIPDQ\IRUHLJQFRPSDQLHV LQWKHODWHVEXWZLWKWKHGUDPDWLFGHFOLQHRIÀQDQFLDODFWLYLWLHVLQWKHHDUO\ VWKLVWUHQGVORZHGVRPHZKDW$V7DEOHLQGLFDWHVKRZHYHUWKHUHZDV DVWHDG\LQFUHDVHLQIRUHLJQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH7RN\R6WRFN([FKDQJHIURPWKH PLGVLQWRWKHV,WLVLQWHUHVWLQJWRREVHUYHWKDWDWWKHWLPHRIPD[LPXP FRPSHWLWLRQLQWKHPDUNHWLQWKHQXPEHURIIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVOLVWHGZDV DQGRQO\SHUFHQWRIVKDUHVWUDGLQJZDVFRQGXFWHGE\IRUHLJQÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV +RZHYHU E\ WKH QXPEHU RI IRUHLJQ FRPSDQLHV OLVWHG KDG GZLQGOHGWRDPHUHWKLUW\VHYHQUHÁHFWLQJWKHODFNRIEXVLQHVVRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQG WKH GLIÀFXOW\ RI UDLVLQJ PRQH\ LQ -DSDQ EXW IRUHLJQ ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV KDG FDSWXUHG SHUFHQW RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDGLQJ YROXPH RI VKDUHV 0RUHRYHU WKHUH
Katada Table 8.2 )RUHLJQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH7RN\R6WRFN([FKDQJH² 6KDUHRZQHUVKLS 6KDUHWUDGLQJYROXPH 1XPEHURIOLVWHGFRPSDQLHV
1975
1980
1985
1990
1997
2002
6RXUFHTokyo Stock Exchange Fact Book7RN\R7RN\R6WRFN([FKDQJH
KDYHEHHQUHSRUWVWKDWIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVZHUHDWWKDWWLPHSLFNLQJXSDODUJHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHDVVHWVVROGE\-DSDQHVHEDQNVDVWKH\WULHGWRUHGXFHWKHLUEDGGHEW EXUGHQ$FFRUGLQJWR1LKRQ.HL]DL6KLPEXQWKHERRNYDOXHRIVXFKGHDOVLQ DPRXQWHGWRDERXWWULOOLRQ86ELOOLRQ ,QIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVDQG WUDGHUVIXUWKHULQFUHDVHGWKHLURZQHUVKLSVKDUHWRSHUFHQW7KHLQÁXHQFHRI IRUHLJQ ÀQDQFLDO FRPSDQLHV GLG QRW HQG ZLWK WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKHLU SUHVHQFH )LQDQFLDODQDO\VHVSURYLGHGE\DQDO\VWVDQGUHVHDUFKHUVIURPQRQ-DSDQHVHLQVWLWXWLRQVFDUULHGVLJQLÀFDQWZHLJKWLQWKHGHFLVLRQVQRWRQO\RIIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUVEXW DOVR-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLF\PDNHUV 7KH ´%LJ %DQJµ SURYLGHG DQ HYHQ ZLGHU ZLQGRZ IRU IRUHLJQ ÀUPV WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO PDUNHW$IWHU D SROLF\ VWDQGVWLOO VLQFH WKH VWRFNPDUNHWFROODSVH-DSDQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVODXQFKHGYDULRXVVWXGLHVEHWZHHQ DQGUHJDUGLQJDSODQWRUHYLWDOL]HDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOL]H-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDO PDUNHWV$VKHU 7KRVHUHVHDUFKHIIRUWVUHDFKHGVLPLODUUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV WKHFUX[RIZKLFKFDOOHGIRUUDGLFDOÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPDVDFULWLFDOSUHVFULSWLRQIRU UHYLWDOL]LQJ-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOPDUNHW7KH02)DQGWKH/'3VXSSRUWHGWKHLQLWLDWLYH%\'HFHPEHUWKH+DVKLPRWRFDELQHWEHJDQLPSOHPHQWLQJWKHJRYHUQPHQWSODQLQWKHIRUPRIWKH)LQDQFLDO6\VWHP5HIRUP%LOOZKLFKODXQFKHG WKHVRFDOOHG´%LJ%DQJµDSURFHVVRIÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPWREHFRPSOHWHGE\ 7KHUHIRUPDLPHGWRPDNH-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOPDUNHWV´IUHHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIHQWU\ ÀQDQFLDOSURGXFWLQQRYDWLRQDQGSULFHVHWF IDLUFRGLÀFDWLRQDQGWUDQVSDUHQF\ RIÀQDQFLDOUXOHVDQGLQFUHDVHLQLQYHVWRUSURWHFWLRQ DQGJOREDOLQWURGXFWLRQRID ¶JOREDOVWDQGDUG·IRU-DSDQ·VOHJDODQGDFFRXQWLQJV\VWHPVDVZHOODVVWUHQJWKHQHG ÀQDQFLDOVXSHUYLVLRQ µ0LKDVKLet al *LYHQ WKHVH FKDQJHV DV ZHOO DV WKH WKUHDW RI ÀQDQFLDO ZHDNQHVVHV LW LV QRW VXUSULVLQJWKDWWKHSDFHRIUHVWUXFWXULQJDPRQJ-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVKDV DFFHOHUDWHG VLQFH 7KH VDPH \HDU DOVR VDZ WKH 02)·V VWURQJ JULS RQ WKH ÀQDQFLDOPDWWHUVZHDNHQHGWKDQNVWRWKHVHSDUDWLRQRIWKH)LQDQFLDO6XSHUYLVRU\ $JHQF\IURPWKH02)LQ-XQHZKLFKFRQVWUDLQHGWKH02)·VDELOLW\WRGRPLQDWH WKHDJHQGD7KHSURPLQHQWIHDWXUHVRIWKHRQJRLQJUHVWUXFWXULQJLQ-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU KDYH EHHQ WKH LQFUHDVLQJO\ FRPSUHKHQVLYH QDWXUH RI WKH UHIRUP DQG WKHLQFUHDVHGSDUWLFLSDWLRQRIIRUHLJQÀQDQFLDOHQWLWLHVLQWKHSURFHVV0RUHRYHU DVWKHPDMRUÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVIDLOHGLQWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWZDV IRUFHGWRDGGUHVVEDQNLQJFULVHV-DSDQ·VDGPLQLVWUDWLYHUHIRUPGXULQJWKHVDPH SHULRGERWKLQÁXHQFHGDQGZDVLQÁXHQFHGE\WKHÀQDQFLDOFULVHV,WZDVLQWKLV FRQWH[WWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWLQWURGXFHGYDULRXVQHZÀQDQFLDOUHJXODWRU\ IUDPHZRUNV
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV Regulatory framework and government intervention 6LQFHWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVVWUXJJOHGZLWKWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKH %LJ %DQJ WR PDNH 7RN\R DQ DWWUDFWLYH DQG FRPSHWLWLYH ÀQDQFLDO PDUNHW WKDW FRPSOLHV ZLWK WKH ´JOREDO VWDQGDUGµ LQ OHJDO DFFRXQWLQJ DQG RWKHU EXVLQHVV SUDFWLFHV1HYHUWKHOHVVVXFKUHIRUPZRXOGRUVKRXOG LQWXUQHQDEOHPHPEHUV RIWKH-DSDQHVHSXEOLFZLWKWKHLUWULOOLRQ86WULOOLRQ SHUVRQDOVDYLQJV PRVWO\LQEDQNDQGSRVWDOVDYLQJDFFRXQWVWREHQHÀWIURPPRUHRSWLRQVDQGKLJKHU UHWXUQVRQWKHLUPRQH\7KHGLIÀFXOW\KHUHZDVWKDWWKHODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQPRYHV SUHVXSSRVHGWKDWDODUJHSDUWRI-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVZRXOGEHKHDOWK\DQG FRPSHWLWLYHHQRXJKWREHFRPHZLQQHUVLQWKLVQHZJDPH,QRUGHUWRVDWLVI\VXFK SUHUHTXLVLWHV-DSDQKDGWRRYHUFRPHWZRPDMRUKXUGOHVÀUVWLWKDGWRDGGUHVV WKHSROLWLFVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH13/SUREOHPDQGSXWLQSODFHÀQDQFLDOUHJXODWRU\ IUDPHZRUNVWRDGHTXDWHO\VROYHWKLVSUREOHPDQGVHFRQGLWQHHGWRLPSOHPHQW DGPLQLVWUDWLYHUHIRUPLQRUGHUWRLPSURYHGRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOJRYHUQDQFH ,QUHODWLRQWRWKHÀUVWSRLQW-DSDQDQGLWVÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVVDLOHGLQWRXQFKDUWHG WHUULWRU\ IURP WKH PLGV DV PDQ\ EDQNV DFWXDOO\ EHJDQ WR IDLO 6WDUWLQJ ZLWKWKHVHFRQGWLHUEDQNLQZHVWHUQ-DSDQ+\RJR%DQNVHYHUDOUHJLRQDOEDQNV and shinyo kumiai FUHGLW FRRSHUDWLYH EDQNV IDLOHG IURP WKURXJK %HDULQJPDVVLYH13/SUREOHPVLQWKHPLGVWRIDZHDNHFRQRP\WKHPDMRUEDQNV UHDOL]HG WKDW WKH HQG RI 02)·V LPSOLFLW JXDUDQWHH DJDLQVW EDQN IDLOXUHV ZDV LQ VLJKW'XULQJWKLVSHULRGWKH02)ZDVVWUXJJOLQJXQGHUSROLWLFDOXQFHUWDLQW\ DQGSUHVVXUHWRVROYHWKH13/SUREOHPVZLWKPLQLPXPÀQDQFLDOLQVWDELOLW\7KH ÀQDOEORZKRZHYHUFDPHLQ1RYHPEHUZKHQWZRmajorÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV+RNNDLGR7DNXVKRNX%DQN7DNXJLQ DQG
Katada L]DWLRQRIWKH-DSDQHVHHFRQRP\DVWKH\SURWHFWHGWKHUHDOVHFWRUHVSHFLDOO\VPDOO DQGPHGLXPVL]HÀUPVIURPD´FUHGLWFUXQFKµ'XULQJWKLVSHULRGWKH)LQDQFLDO 5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ /DZ HVWDEOLVKHG WKH )LQDQFLDO 5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ &RPPLVVLRQ )5& GLUHFWO\XQGHUWKH3ULPH0LQLVWHU·V2IÀFHWKH)5&ZDVDEVRUEHGLQWRWKH )LQDQFLDO6HUYLFHV$JHQF\LQ,WDOORFDWHGPRUHWKDQWULOOLRQ86ELOOLRQ IRUWKHSXUSRVHRIGHSRVLWRUSURWHFWLRQDQGUHFDSLWDOL]DWLRQRIEDQNVWKURXJK WKH'HSRVLW,QVXUDQFH&RUSRUDWLRQ0LKDVKLet al² 0DMRU EDQNV WKRXJK LQ GHVSHUDWH QHHG RI FDSLWDO ZHUH RIWHQ UHOXFWDQW WR DFFHSWDQLQMHFWLRQRIFDVKIURPWKHSXEOLFIXQG7KH\GLGQRWZDQWWKHJRYHUQPHQWWREHFRPHLQYROYHGLQEDQNV·PDQDJHPHQWDQGDFFHSWLQJFDSLWDOLQMHFWLRQ ZRXOGKDYHUHYHDOHGWKHGLUHÀQDQFLDOVWDQGLQJRIWKHFRPSDQLHV7KXVDVWKH )LQDQFLDO5HFRQVWUXFWLRQ/DZZDVSDVVHGDQGSXEOLFIXQGVZHUHVHWDVLGHIRUWKDW SXUSRVH WKH JRYHUQPHQW VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ LQMHFWHG IXQGV LQWR PRVW RI WKH PDMRU EDQNVIRUUHFDSLWDOL]DWLRQ,QDQGSXEOLFUHFDSLWDOL]DWLRQRI-DSDQHVH EDQNVWKURXJKWKLVPHDVXUHDQGLWVVXFFHVVRUVH[FHHGHGWULOOLRQ86ELOOLRQ ,QRUGHUIRUDEDQNWRUHFHLYHVXFKSXEOLFIXQGVLWKDVWRFRPPLWWRDQ DJUHHGSODQ WR UDWLRQDOL]HDQG UHYLWDOL]HWKH RUJDQL]DWLRQ+RZHYHU LQ RUGHU WR DYRLGH[FHVVLYHLQWHUYHQWLRQWKHJRYHUQPHQWZDVUHVWULFWHGWRWKHRZQHUVKLSRI VRFDOOHGSUHIHUUHGVWRFNyusen kabu KROGHUVRIZKLFKLQUHWXUQIRUUHODWLYHO\ KLJKHUUHWXUQVZHUHQRWDOORZHGWRJHWLQYROYHGLQEDQNV·PDQDJHPHQWGHFLVLRQV Asahi Shimbun2FWREHU 7KH GLVFXVVLRQV RQ -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO JRYHUQDQFH RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG KDYH LQHYLWDEO\ EHHQ FORVHO\ FRQQHFWHG WR WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UHIRUP RI WKH ÀQDQFLDO EXUHDXFUDF\²DSURFHVVZKLFKJDLQHGIRUFHLQWKHODWHV7KLVUHIRUPZDV VXSSRVHGWRVWUHQJWKHQWKHSROLF\HQYLURQPHQWPRUHDSSURSULDWHIRUPDFURSROLF\ IUDPHZRUNV$VGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHUE\WKHPLGVWKH02)KDGDOUHDG\ORVWLWV HQRUPRXVDXWKRULW\RYHUÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVDVZHOODVWKHSXEOLFUHVSHFW,WVFORVH WLHVZLWKWKHOHDGLQJ/'3ZHUHDOVRGLVUXSWHGGXULQJWKHWLPHRISROLWLFDOLQVWDELOLW\EHWZHHQDQG$P\[ DUJXHVWKDWLQWKHSRVWEXEEOH SHULRG´WKH02)ZDVLQFUHDVLQJO\ORVLQJERWKFRQWURODQGRUJDQL]DWLRQDOFRKHUHQFHµ0DQ\'LHWPHPEHUVEHJDQFDOOLQJIRUWKHVHSDUDWLRQRIÀVFDODQGÀQDQFLDO SROLFLHVDQGYDULRXVVFDQGDOVLQFOXGLQJWKDWRIjusen)DQGSROLF\IDLOXUHVRIWKH 02)SURYLGHGDQHYHQKDUGHUSXVKWRZDUGGLVPDQWOLQJWKH02)ôkurashô kaitai $IWHUVHYHUDOPRQWKVRISROLWLFDOPDQHXYHULQJLQWKHPLGGOHRIGXULQJ ZKLFKWLPHWKH02)VWUXJJOHGWRPDLQWDLQLWVWXUIDQGXQLW\WKHFRDOLWLRQJRYHUQPHQWLVVXHGDEOXHSULQWIRUWKH02)·VUHIRUPLQ'HFHPEHUZKLFKGHWDFKHG ÀQDQFLDOLQVSHFWLRQDQGVXSHUYLVLRQDXWKRULW\IURPWKH02)SURSHU +HQFHWKHDOPLJKW\02)´ORVWµÀQDQFLDOUHJXODWRU\IXQFWLRQV7KHQHZO\ FUHDWHG )LQDQFLDO 6XSHUYLVRU\ $JHQF\ )6X$ ZDV SODFHG GLUHFWO\ XQGHU WKH FRQWURORIWKH3ULPH0LQLVWHU·V2IÀFHRYHUVHHLQJWKHDFWLYLWLHVRIEDQNLQJDQG VHFXULW\ÀUPVLQ-DSDQIURP-XQH7KHQHZDJHQF\LVWRNHHSDUP·VOHQJWK UHODWLRQV ZLWK -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU WR HOLPLQDWH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI FROOXVLRQ 8QGHU WKLV DJHQF\ WKH SUDFWLFH RI ´DGPLQLVWUDWLYH JXLGDQFHµ ZKLFK WKH 02) XVHG WR UHO\ RQ WR JXLGH -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU ZDV DEROLVKHG DQG WKHUH KDV EHHQDGUDPDWLFLQFUHDVHLQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIH[SOLFLWODZVDQGUHJXODWLRQV7KLVLV RQHZD\WRLQFUHDVHWUDQVSDUHQF\ZKLFKZRXOGSURYLGHDKRVSLWDEOHHQYLURQPHQW
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV IRUJOREDOÀQDQFLDOWUDQVDFWLRQV/DWHULQWKHH[SDQGHG)LQDQFLDO6HUYLFHV $JHQF\ )6$ DEVRUEHG ERWK WKH )6X$ DQG )LQDQFLDO 3ODQQLQJ %XUHDX RI WKH 02)DQGEHFDPHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUSODQQLQJWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPDVZHOODVLQVSHFWLRQVDQGVXSHUYLVLRQ ,QSDUDOOHOZLWKWKHVHDGPLQLVWUDWLYHFKDQJHVLQWKHUHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUNIRU -DSDQ·VÀ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ÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUWRRVKRZHGVLJQV RILQWHUEXUHDXFUDWLFSROLWLFVWKDWDIIHFWHGWKHSURVSHFWVRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ 5HVWUXFWXULQJ-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU $V GLVFXVVHG DERYH WKH KHDY\ SURWHFWLRQ DQG JXLGDQFH RI -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU E\ WKH 02) KDV JUDGXDOO\ ZDQHG WKURXJK ERWK LQFUHDVHG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ DQGLQÁXHQFHRIIRUHLJQHQWLWLHV,QDGGLWLRQLQVWLWXWLRQDOUHIRUPVKDYHUHPRYHG PRVWRIWKHJXLGLQJIXQFWLRQVIURPWKHPLQLVWU\$QGÀQDOO\WKHIDLOXUHVRIPDMRU ÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVIURPWKURXJKGHOLYHUHGWKHÀQDOGHDWKNQHOOWR WKH02)·VFRQYR\V\VWHPDQGÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVFRQVLVWLQJRIFORVHLQVWLWXWLRQDO OLQNDJHVEHWZHHQJRYHUQPHQWEDQNVDQGPDMRUÀUPV :LWKWKHIDLOXUHRIPDMRUÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVLQ-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVHVSHFLDOO\EDQNVUHDOL]HGWKDWWKH02)ZRXOGQRWSURYLGHWKHOHYHORI VXSSRUWQHHGHGWRDYRLGEDQNUXSWFLHV)RUWKLVUHDVRQWKH\ODXQFKHGWKHLUUHVWUXFWXULQJHIIRUWVIURP,QRUGHUWRRYHUFRPHWKHFRPSDQLHV·YXOQHUDELOLWLHVDQG EHFRPHPRUHFRPSHWLWLYHLQWKHIUHHU PDUNHWPDQ\EDQNVRSWHGWRPHUJHZLWK RWKHUV IRU VXUYLYDO ,Q WKHVH FDVHV WKH JRYHUQPHQW RIWHQ PDWFKHG DLOLQJ EDQNV ZLWKVWURQJHUÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVZKLOHQRWLQWHUIHULQJLQFDVHVLQYROYLQJKHDOWK\ EDQNVDQGÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV6RPHDOVRRSWHGWRWLHXSZLWKIRUHLJQÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQVDVVKRZQLQ7DEOH7KHWUHQGFRQWLQXHVDQGDVPRVWRIWKH%LJ %DQJOHJLVODWLYHFKDQJHVNLFNHGLQE\ÀVFDO\HDUPDQ\ÀUPVKDYHWDNHQ WKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVSURYLGHGE\WKHQHZUXOHVVXFKDVWKRVHWKDWDOORZIRUPDWLRQRI KROGLQJFRPSDQLHV %\0DUFKLQSODFHRIDGR]HQRUVRFLW\EDQNVWKH-DSDQHVHEDQNLQJ VHFWRU FRQYHUJHG LQWR WKH VRFDOOHG ´µ VWUXFWXUH ZLWK IRXU ODUJH ÀQDQFLDO JURXSV ² 0L]XKR )LQDQFLDO *URXS 7RN\R0LWVXELVKL )LQDQFLDO *URXS 8QLWHG )LQDQFLDORI-DSDQ8)- JURXSDQG6XPLWRPR0LWVXL)LQDQFLDO*URXS²DQGRQH VHPLODUJHJURXSFHQWHUHGDURXQG5HVRQD+ROGLQJV'DLZD%DQN*URXS ,QHDFK ÀQDQFLDOJURXSOLHVD´PHJDEDQNµ)RUH[DPSOH0L]XKR%DQNZKLFKHPHUJHG IURPWKHPHUJHURI)XML%DQN'DLLFKL.DQJ\R%DQNDQGWKH,QGXVWULDO%DQNRI -DSDQ,%- LQLVWKHODUJHVWEDQNLQWKHZRUOGZLWKHPSOR\HHV
Katada Table 8.3 5HVWUXFWXULQJRIÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVVLQFH 1998 -XQH 6HSWHPEHU 2FWREHU 2FWREHU 1RYHPEHU 1RYHPEHU 1999 -DQXDU\ -DQXDU\ $SULO 0D\ -XQH $XJXVW 6HSWHPEHU 2FWREHU 2000 $SULO -XO\ $XJXVW 6HSWHPEHU 2FWREHU 2001 $SULO $SULO 2FWREHU 2002 0DUFK
867UDYHOHUVLQYHVWLQ1LNNR6HFXULWLHV WKH\MRLQWO\HVWDEOLVKD QHZVHFXULW\À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²0LWVXL%DQN 6DQZD%DQN7RNDL%DQNDQG7R\R7UXVWPHUJHWRHVWDEOLVK8)- +ROGLQJV 0LWVXL%DQNDQG6DNXUD7UXVWDQG%DQNLQJEHJLQWRPHUJHFRPSOHWHG LQ0DUFK WRIRUP6XPLWRPR0LWVXL)LQDQFLDO*URXS60)* 'DLZD%DQN.LQNL2VDND%DQNDQG1DUD%DQNPHUJHWRIRUP'DLZD %DQN*URXS
7KLVPDVVLYHUHVWUXFWXULQJKDVREYLRXVO\GDPDJHGROGSHUVRQDOQHWZRUNVDQG LQVWLWXWLRQDOOLQNDJHV,QSDUWLFXODUWKLVW\SHRIFKDQJHKDVGLVPDQWOHGWKHZDOOV VHSDUDWLQJGLIIHUHQWkeiretsusDQGEHWZHHQ-DSDQHVHDQGIRUHLJQLQVWLWXWLRQV7KH MXU\LVVWLOORXWRQWKHFRQFUHWHVWUDWHJLHVDQGPHWKRGVWKURXJKZKLFKWKHkeiretsu
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV V\VWHPLWVHOIPLJKWWU\WRVXUYLYHEXWWKLVZRXOGVXUHO\WUDQVIRUPRUHUDGLFDWHWKH ROGÀQDQFLDOFRQQHFWLRQVDVZHXVHGWRNQRZWKHP ,QWKHVSULQJRIZKHQ3ULPH0LQLVWHU-XQLFKLUR.RL]XPLWRRNRIÀFH -DSDQ·VQHZÀQDQFLDODGPLQLVWUDWLRQDQGODUJHEDQNPHUJHUVZHUHDOUHDG\LQSURFHVV1HYHUWKHOHVVEDGGHEWVRQWKHERRNVRIPDMRUEDQNVVWLOOORRPHGKHDYLO\ XSRQ -DSDQ·V VOXJJLVK HFRQRP\ .RL]XPL GHWHUPLQHG WR WDFNOH WKH 13/ SUREOHPVZLIWO\PDGHDSXEOLFSURPLVHWKDWWKHJRYHUQPHQWZRXOGUHVROYHWKHEDG GHEWSUREOHPE\WKHHQGRIE\KDOYLQJWKH13/V3ODFLQJDUHODWLYHO\ LQGHSHQGHQWDFDGHPLF+HL]R7DNHQDNDLQFKDUJHRIÀVFDOSROLF\DQGÀQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV IURP 2FWREHU RQZDUGV WKH SXVK WRZDUG ÀQDQFLDO UHIRUP DQG UHYLWDOL]DWLRQ EHJDQ LQ HDUQHVW ZLWK YDULRXV PHDVXUHV LQFOXGLQJ UHFODVVLÀFDWLRQ RIORDQVDQGWLJKWHQLQJRIVXSHUYLVRU\IXQFWLRQRIWKH)6$,QWKHVDPHSURJUDP WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWHPSKDVL]HGVXSSRUWIRUVPDOODQGPHGLXPFRUSRUDWLRQV LQWKHUHDOVHFWRUZKLFKZRXOGLQHYLWDEO\VXIIHUIURPEDQNV·DFWLRQVWRJHWULGRI EDGORDQV %\WKHWLPHRIZULWLQJDWWKHHQGRIWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIVXFKPHDVXUHV WDNHQXQGHUWKH.RL]XPL²7DNHQDNDOHDGHUVKLSKDVEHHQPL[HG,QWKHVSULQJRI -DSDQ·V 1LNNHL VWRFN LQGH[ IHOO EHORZ KLWWLQJ D WZHQW\\HDU ORZ %XWWKHQSDUWLDOO\KHOSHGE\WKHVWURQJHFRQRPLFERRPLQ&KLQDWKH-DSDQHVH HFRQRP\ VWDUWHG WR VKRZ VLJQV RI UHYLWDOL]DWLRQ LQ %\ 1RYHPEHU WZRRIWKHPDMRUÀQDQFLDOJURXSV0L]XKRDQG6XPLWRPR²0LWVXLDQQRXQFHGWKDW WKH\KDGUHGXFHGWKHLUEDGGHEWWRWKHH[WHQWWKDWWKH\FRXOGPHHWWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDO VWDQGDUGThe Financial Times1RYHPEHU 2QWKHRWKHUKDQG-DSDQ H[SHULHQFHGDQRWKHUIDLOXUHRIDEDQN5HVRQDLQWKHVSULQJRI)XUWKHUPRUH IROORZLQJDUHJXODWRU\VFDQGDODQGZLWKDQHYHULQFUHDVLQJ13/SUREOHPWKH8)- )LQDQFLDO *URXS DQQRXQFHG WKDW LW FRXOG QR ORQJHU VXVWDLQ WKH ÀQDQFLDO JURXS LQGHSHQGHQWO\ 7KH JURXS·V H[SHFWHG PHUJHU ZLWK 7RN\R0LWVXELVKL LV EHLQJ ZRUNHGRXW ,Q VXPPDU\ LQ WKH ODWH V LQWR WKH V YDULRXV DWWHPSWV WR WDNH WKH JRYHUQPHQW·VKDQGRIIWKHÀQDQFLDOWLOOHUFRXOGEHREVHUYHG7KHPRVWSURPLQHQW PDQLIHVWDWLRQRIWKLVLVWKH´%LJ%DQJµDQGUHVWUXFWXULQJRIWKH02)DQG)6$DV GHVFULEHGLQWKLVFKDSWHU2WKHUIDFWRUVWKDWFUHDWHGVXEWOHSUHVVXUHWRZDUGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQFOXGHGWKHLQFUHDVHGSUHVHQFHRIIRUHLJQÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVZKLFK ZHUH QHYHU D SDUW RI GRPHVWLF ÀQDQFLDO SROLWLFV SULRU WR WKH V ,Q RUGHU WR LQFUHDVHWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKH-DSDQHVHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU-DSDQQHHGVWRIRVWHU DQRSHQDQGIUHHHQYLURQPHQWZLWKH[SOLFLWUXOHVRIODZDQGWUDQVSDUHQWUHJXODWRU\ IUDPHZRUNVLQZKLFKQHZDQGDWWUDFWLYHÀQDQFLDORSSRUWXQLWLHVFDQHPHUJH2Q WKHRWKHUKDQGFRQFHUQVDERXWHFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOLQVWDELOLW\FUHDWHGE\SRWHQWLDOÀQDQFLDOFROODSVHOHGWKHODZPDNHUVWRWXUQWRLQMHFWSXEOLFIXQGVLQWRPRVW EDQNVWKXVPDNLQJWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWDODUJHVKDUHKROGHURIVRPHEDQNV DWOHDVWLQWKHVKRUWUXQ6XFKH[SOLFLWLQYROYHPHQWRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQW ZRXOGDQGVKRXOGIDGHDVWKHVHEDQNVUHJDLQDKHDOWK\FDSLWDODVVHWUDWLRIURPD ULVHLQVWRFNPDUNHWVDVZHOODVVROXWLRQVWRWKH13/SUREOHPV DQGVXFKWUHQGV KDYHDFWXDOO\EHHQREVHUYHGDPRQJPHJDEDQNV1HYHUWKHOHVVEHFDXVHEDQNIDLOXUHVZRXOGFUHDWHDPDMRUHFRQRPLFSROLWLFDODQGVRFLDOGLVDVWHUIRUWKH/'3
Katada WKHJRYHUQPHQWVHHPVWREHIRUEHWWHURUZRUVHFRPPLWWHGWRLQYROYLQJLWVHOILQ VROYLQJWKH13/SUREOHPV
Conclusion and regional/global implications 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO SROLWLFV RI WKH SDVW TXDUWHUFHQWXU\ LV WKH VWRU\ RI D ODWH OLEHUDOL]HU 7KLV FKDSWHU KDV KLJKOLJKWHG WKH SURJUHVVLRQ WRZDUG DQGIRUFHVEHKLQG-DSDQ·VOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU-DSDQRQFHKDGD ÀQDQFLDOHQYLURQPHQWZLWKYHU\WLJKWSHUVRQDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOOLQNDJHVDPRQJ EDQNVÀUPVDQGWKHJRYHUQPHQWWKDWVXSSRUWHG-DSDQ·VUDSLGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQLQ WKHVDQGV6XEVHTXHQWO\-DSDQ·VHFRQRPLFVXFFHVVLWVHOIWUDQVIRUPHG WKLVWLJKWNQLWVWUXFWXUHLQWKHVDVQHZO\FRPSHWLWLYHÀUPVEHJDQWRH[LWWKH QHWZRUN /LEHUDOL]DWLRQ SUHVVXUHV IURP RXWVLGH DQG GHUHJXODWLRQ SUHVVXUH IURP ZLWKLQSXVKHG-DSDQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVWRORRVHQWKHDUUDQJHPHQWDQGUHSODFHLW ZLWK D PDFURSROLF\ IUDPHZRUN WR LPSURYH WKH KHDOWK DQG FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV RI -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU DQG WKLV YHU\ SURFHVV GHWHUPLQHG WKH FHQWUDO UROH WKDW WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW SOD\HG LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RXWFRPHV LQ WKLV VHFWRU-DSDQ·VGHFDGHORQJUHFHVVLRQRIWKHVSURORQJHGE\WKHEDQNV·13/ SUREOHPVFXOPLQDWHGZLWKWKHIDLOXUHRIWZRPDMRUÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVLQ 7KLVDOVRSXVKHGERWKWKH02)DQG/'3RYHUWKHHGJHWRODXQFKVRPHRIWKH PRVW GUDVWLF PHDVXUHV RI ÀQDQFLDO DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UHIRUPV &RQFRPLWDQWO\ DV DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI SROLWLFDO SULRULWLHV WKDW LQHYLWDEO\ VWHP IURP OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ HIIRUWV WKH JRYHUQPHQW KDV DOVR FRQGXFWHG XQSUHFHGHQWHG HIIRUWV WR VWDELOL]H -DSDQ·V ÀQDQFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW DV LW LQMHFWHG SXEOLF IXQGV DQG LQGXFHGFKDQJHVLQEDQNV·ÀQDQFLDOJRYHUQDQFH$VVXJJHVWHGE\WKHHGLWRUVLQ WKHÀUVWFKDSWHURIWKLVYROXPHWKHVHYHU\SURFHVVHVLQYROYLQJWKHPHGLDWLRQRI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQIRUFHVVHUYHRQO\WRKLJKOLJKWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIVWDWHLQVWLWXWLRQV DORQJVHYHUDOGLPHQVLRQV ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ &KLQD LV XQGHUJRLQJ VLPLODU SUHVVXUHV WR OLEHUDOL]H DQG UHIRUP LWV ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU $V 6HKUW·V FKDSWHU FOHDUO\ GHPRQVWUDWHV &KLQHVH ÀQDQFLDO SROLWLFVKDVDOZD\VEHHQIRUWKHSURWHFWLRQRIORVHUVDQGUHGLVWULEXWLRQRIJDLQV IURP&KLQD·VRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFJURZWK7KHLPSHUDWLYHVRIPDUNHWDQGFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVDUHRQO\VHFRQGDU\WR&KLQHVHEDQNVZKLFKDUHVWLOOODUJHO\RZQHGE\ WKHJRYHUQPHQW7KXVIDUWKH&KLQHVHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUKDVEHHQKLJKO\LQVXODWHG ZKLFKKDVDOORZHGLQHIÀFLHQFLHVWRFRQWLQXH8QOLNH-DSDQZKHUHWKHÀQDQFLDO VHFWRUKDVLQFUHDVLQJO\EHHQSHQHWUDWHGE\LQWHUQDWLRQDOLVWDQGIRUHLJQLQWHUHVWV WKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVQHYHUEHHQSXWLQDSRVLWLRQWRGHDOZLWKVLJQLÀFDQW OLEHUDOL]DWLRQSUHVVXUH+RZHYHU&KLQD·VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH:72UHTXLUHDFHUWDLQ OHYHORIÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWZLOOKDYHWRVWUXJJOH ZLWKWKHSURFHVVRIPDNLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOL]HGÀUPVDQGÀQDQFHÀWZLWKGRPHVWLF SROLWLFDOPDQGDWHVWKDWLQFOXGHVRFLDOVWDELOLW\ 7KLV LQVLJKW SURYLGHV D JRRG VRXUFH RI WKH FRQQHFWLRQ DQG SDUDOOHO EHWZHHQ -DSDQDQG&KLQDLQÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV-DSDQLVFXUUHQWO\JRLQJWKURXJKDPDMRU WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQ LWV ÀQDQFLDO SROLF\ IUDPHZRUN &KLQD LV DQG ZLOO EH IDFLQJ WKH VLPLODU WDVN RI GHDOLQJ ZLWK ÀQDQFLDO JOREDOL]DWLRQ ,Q WKLV HQYLURQPHQW
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV DQGGHVSLWHWKHULYDOU\DQGWHQVLRQEHWZHHQ-DSDQDQG&KLQDLQPDQ\DVSHFWVRI WKHLUUHODWLRQVKLSWKHVHWZRJRYHUQPHQWVDUHOLNHO\WRVHHWKHUHJLRQDOÀQDQFLDO DUUDQJHPHQW DV D QHFHVVDU\ EXIIHU ,W LV QRW D FRLQFLGHQFH WKDW WKH 02) VXGGHQO\ EHFDPH YHU\ NHHQ RQ UHJLRQDO ÀQDQFLDO DUUDQJHPHQW DV D ZD\ WR VRIWHQ WKHSUHVVXUHWRZDUGJOREDOL]DWLRQDQGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHDIWHUPDWKRIWKH$VLDQ ÀQDQFLDOFULVLVLQ(YHQDIWHUWKHGXVWIURPWKHFULVLVVHWWOHGWKH-DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW FRQWLQXHV WR SXUVXH UHJLRQDO ÀQDQFLDO DUUDQJHPHQWV LQFOXGLQJ WKH $VLDQERQGLQLWLDWLYHVDQGLGHDVDLPHGDWUHJLRQDOPRQHWDU\XQLRQ5HFHQWO\WKH &KLQHVH JRYHUQPHQW KDV DOVR VKRZQ D UHPDUNDEOH VKLIW LQ LWV DWWLWXGHV WRZDUG IDYRULQJVRPHRIWKRVHUHJLRQDODUUDQJHPHQWV,WPD\EHDSSURSULDWHWRVSHFXODWH WKDWUHJLRQDOÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQEXLOGLQJHIIRUWVRQWKHSDUWRIWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWVXSSRUWHGE\&KLQDKDYHEHHQIRUWKHFUHDWLRQRID´UHJLRQDOEXIIHUµ WKDWZRXOGDOORZWKHFRXQWU\·VÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUWRJRWKURXJKWUDQVIRUPDWLRQXQGHU WKHQHZO\HVWDEOLVKHGPDFURSROLF\IUDPHZRUN
Notes 3HPSHOD XVHVWKHWHUP´VWUXFWXUDOgaiatsuµWRFDSWXUH´WKHLQÁXHQFHRIFDSLWDO PRYHPHQWVRQ-DSDQµ6HHDOVR$QGUHZV RQWKHFDSLWDOPRELOLW\K\SRWKHVLV &DOGHU H[WHQVLYHO\GLVFXVVHVWKHVHVL[PDMRUFKDUDFWHULVWLFVLQ&KDSWHU 7KH VRXUFH RI IXQGLQJ IRU WKRVH JRYHUQPHQW ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV LV WKH )LVFDO ,QYHVWPHQWDQG/RDQ3URJUDP),/3 IXQGFKDQQHOHGWKURXJKSHUVRQDOGHSRVLWVWKH -DSDQHVHSHRSOHKDYHLQWKHSRVWDOVDYLQJV\VWHP $P\[ ² GHWDLOV WKUHH PDMRU FRPSRQHQWV WKDW FRQVWLWXWHV WKH FRQYR\ V\VWHPHQWU\DQGH[LWUHVWULFWLRQVSULFHFRQWUROVDQGVHJPHQWHGPDUNHWV,QDGGLWLRQ LW LV DPD]LQJ KRZ ´IDLUO\µ DOO WKH FLW\ EDQNV ZHUH WUHDWHG WKURXJKRXW WKHVH \HDUV $RNLet al²7DEOH UHSRUWWKDWWKHFKDQJHVLQWKHQXPEHURIGRPHVWLF EUDQFKHVRIFLW\EDQNVDQGWKHUDWHVRILQFUHDVHDPRQJWKHPDMRUFLW\EDQNVZHUHYHU\ VLPLODUIURPWKURXJK )ROORZLQJWKH86PRGHORIWKH*ODVV²6HDJDOO$FW-DSDQLQWURGXFHGGXULQJWKH86 2FFXSDWLRQ$UWLFOHRIWKH6HFXULWLHVDQG([FKDQJH/DZZKLFKOHJDOO\VHSDUDWHG EDQNV IURP VHFXULWLHV ÀUPV 7KH 02)·V EXUHDXV ZHUH VWUXFWXUHG DFFRUGLQJO\ WR RYHUVHHERWKLQGXVWULHV $P\[² H[SODLQVKRZDSHUVRQDODQGLQIRUPDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKH 02)DQGLQGLYLGXDOÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVDVZHOODV-DSDQ·VPDLQEDQNV\VWHPFXW RYHUDOOPRQLWRULQJFRVWVGXULQJWKLVSHULRG +DPDGD DQG +RULXFKL DOVR QRWH WKDW EHFDXVH RI ÀHUFH FRPSHWLWLRQ LQ H[WHQGLQJ ORDQV VPDOO EXVLQHVVHV KDYH EHFRPH LQFUHDVLQJO\ LPSRUWDQW FXVWRPHUV IRU EDQNV ´,Q SHUFHQW RI DOO EDQN ORDQV ZHUH WR VPDOO EXVLQHVVHV WKH FRPSDUDEOHÀJXUHLQZDVSHUFHQWµ 7KHFKDQJHLQWKHODZOHGWRPXFKPRUHOHQLHQWFDSLWDOFRQWURO $V PXFK DV SHUFHQW RI EDG ORDQV 86 ELOOLRQ DUH HVWLPDWHG WR EH WLHG WR RUJDQL]HGFULPH7KRVH´VKDG\GHDOVµOHGWRWKHDVVDVVLQDWLRQRIWKHYLFHSUHVLGHQW RIWKHQRZEDQNUXSW+DQZD%DQNLQDQGWKH6XPLWRPR%DQNEUDQFKPDQDJHU LQ6LQFHWKH
Katada
ERQGVLVVXHGLQWKHPLGVZHUHPDWXULQJLQWKHPLGV'DWDIURP%DQNRI -DSDQEconomic Statistics AnnualDQG/DXUHQFH 6HHDOVR69RJHO 7KH %DQN RI -DSDQ RULJLQDOO\ DEVRUEHG WKHVH ERQGV EXW DV WKH DPRXQW LQFUHDVHG WKLVDUUDQJHPHQWVWDUWHGWRFDXVHWKHWKUHDWRILQÁDWLRQ7KXVWKH02)KDGWRORRN HOVHZKHUH/DXUHQFH 7KH
-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFV 7KHVHQRQSHUIRUPLQJDVVHWVKRZHYHUZHUHVROGDWQRPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWRIWKHLU ERRN YDOXH WKXV VKULQNLQJ WKH FRVWV RI WKRVH SXUFKDVHV WR 86 ELOOLRQ$OVR LW PXVWEHQRWHGWKDWWKLVZDVGXULQJWKH86VWRFNERRPZKHQ$PHULFDQLQYHVWRUVZHUH ZLOOLQJ WR WDNH KLJKHU ULVNV 7KH OHDGLQJ EX\HUV LQFOXGHG *ROGPDQ 6DFKV &R &HUEHUX&DSLWDO0DQDJHPHQWDQG/RQH6WDUW2SSRUWXQLW\)XQG/3-(,5HSRUW1R %0D\S ,QWHUYLHZZLWKDQ)6$RIÀFLDO7RN\R-DSDQ-XQH :KHQWKH+DVKLPRWRFDELQHWIRUPHGWKHSULFHNHHSLQJRSHUDWLRQWKDWKDGVXSSRUWHG VWRFNSULFHVVLQFHXVLQJSXEOLFIXQGVZDVDEDQGRQHG7RVXSSOHPHQWWKHEXGJHW DXVWHULW\SRVLWLRQWKHFDELQHWDGYRFDWHGÀQDQFLDOUHIRUP $V GLVFXVVHG ODWHU WKH ´%LJ %DQJµ UHIRUPV ZHUH FORVHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH JRYHUQPHQW·V DLP WR SXW DQ HQG WR WKH EDQNLQJ FULVLV DQG 13/ SUREOHPV E\ WKH VSULQJRI$VHYLGHQFHRIWKDWWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDQXSSHUOLPLWWRWKHGHSRVLW LQVXUDQFHVRFDOOHGSD\RII ZDVWREHLPSOHPHQWHGE\0DUFK+RZHYHUGXHWR WKHFRQWLQXLQJZHDNQHVVRIWKHEDQNLQJVHFWRUDQGSXEOLFIHDURIÀQDQFLDOFROODSVH WKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWSRVWSRQHGWKHFRPSOHWLRQRIWKLVUHIRUPXQWLO0DUFK /DXUHQFH VXPPDUL]HVWKHFKDQJHVLQWKHÀQDQFLDODQGWD[ODZVDVVRFLDWHG ZLWKWKH%LJ%DQJDVIROORZV $PRQJWKHSURSRVDOVZHUHWRHOLPLQDWHEDUULHUVEHWZHHQVHJPHQWVRIWKHEDQNLQJ VHFWRUWRSURPRWHQHZHQWU\LQWRWKHEDQNLQJVHFXULWLHVDQGLQVXUDQFHVHFWRUV WRH[SDQGWKHUDQJHRIDFWLYLWLHVLQZKLFKÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVFDQHQJDJHWR OLEHUDOL]H WKH FXUUHQWO\ QRQQHJRWLDEOH FRPPLVVLRQV IRU VHFXULWLHV WUDGLQJ WR UHYLVHWKHOHJDOV\VWHPWRDOORZIRUQHZÀQDQFLDOLQVWUXPHQWVVXFKDVGHULYDWLYHV WR UHYLHZ WKH UHVWULFWLRQV RQ IXQGPDQDJHPHQW VHUYLFHV DQG WR LPSURYH WKH GLVFORVXUHV\VWHPRIVXFKVHUYLFHVWRSHUPLWLQYHVWPHQWWUXVWVDQGSHQVLRQIXQGV WR LQYHVW LQ XQOLVWHG FRPSDQLHV WR SHUPLW DOO IRUPV RI KROGLQJ FRPSDQLHV WR HOLPLQDWHDYDULHW\RIWUDQVDFWLRQVWD[HVVXFKDVZLWKKROGLQJWD[RQJRYHUQPHQW ERQGVWRKDUPRQL]H-DSDQ·VDFFRXQWLQJV\VWHPZLWKLQWHUQDWLRQDOVWDQGDUGVDQG WRFRPSOHWHO\OLEHUDOL]HWKHIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHV\VWHPDOORZLQJLQVWLWXWLRQV WR HQJDJH LQ IRUHLJQH[FKDQJH EXVLQHVV ZLWKRXW SULRU SHUPLVVLRQ DQG ZLWKRXW KDYLQJWRJRWKURXJKDEDQN 1RQH RI WKH FLW\ EDQNV DQG YHU\ IHZ RWKHU ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV KDG HYHU IDLOHG LQ -DSDQVLQFHWKHV%XWWKHUHKDGEHHQDIHZDVVLVWHGPHUJHUVkyusai gappei WR KHOSIDLOLQJEDQNV $FWXDOO\WKHÀUVWEDQNIDLOXUHVFDPHIURPWZRVPDOO7RN\REDVHGShinyou Kumiai in 'HFHPEHUDIHZPRQWKVEHIRUH+\RJR%DQNDQG&RVPR&UHGLW&RUSIDLOHG $IWHU+\RJR%DQN7DLKHL\R%DQN/WGDQG+DQZD%DQNDOVRIDLOHG +DUWFKHU ² QRWHV WKDW WKH 02) VWDWHG LQ WKDW LW ZRXOG ZLWKGUDZ LWVJXDUDQWHHRIWKHVHFXULW\RIDOOGHSRVLWVDIWHUDÀYH\HDULQWHUYDO3HPSHOD QRWHVWKDWWKH02)LVQRZFRQGXFWLQJD´1RDK·V$UNV\VWHPµLQZKLFKDIHZDUH VDYHGEXWPDQ\DUHOHIWWRGURZQ $ODUJHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHHPSOR\HHVODLGRIIIURP
Katada 'DWD IURP WKH 'HSRVLW ,QVXUDQFH &RUSRUDWLRQ KWWSZZZGLFJRMSHQJOLVK HBNDWVXGRXHBNDWXGRXKWPO GRZQORDGHG RQ -DQXDU\ $OWKRXJK WKLV UHFDSLWDOL]DWLRQ VFKHPH ZDV KDOWHG RQFH LQ$SULO EHFDXVH RI RSSRVLWLRQ WKH 5HVRQDFULVLVUHYLWDOL]HGWKHLQWHUHVWDQGXVHRIWKHVFKHPHLQ ,Q KLV ERRN ZKLFK FRPSDUHV GHUHJXODWLRQ LQ -DSDQ DQG %ULWDLQ LQ WKH V LQWR WKHHDUO\V69RJHO² FKDUDFWHUL]HV-DSDQ·VUHIRUPDV´VWUDWHJLF UHLQIRUFHPHQWµRIWKHVHFWRUVLQZKLFKWKH-DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWVHOHFWLYHO\SURPRWHV FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG FRQWUROV HQWU\ DQG H[LW HYHQ DV LW UHWDLQV FHQWUDOL]HG UHJXODWRU\ DXWKRULW\DQGPLQLVWHULDOGLVFUHWLRQV,ZRXOGDUJXHKRZHYHUWKDWWKHGHUHJXODWLRQV RIWKHODWHVORRNVPXFKPRUHOLNH´SURFRPSHWLWLYHGLVHQJDJHPHQWµà la%ULWDLQ ZKHUH WKH JRYHUQPHQW DJJUHVVLYHO\ SURPRWHV FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG WKH JRYHUQPHQW·V UHJXODWRU\DXWKRULW\JHWVIUDJPHQWHGDQGUHJXODWLRQVJHWFRGLÀHGDQGOHJDOL]HG 7KH02)·V´EHWUD\DOµFDPHGXULQJWKHPRVWWU\LQJWLPHIRUWKH/'3LQDVLW ORVWLWVPDMRULW\SRZHULQWKHORZHUKRXVH7KLVOHGWKH/'3WREHTXLWHLQLPLFDOWRWKH 02)LQWKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHV7KH02)ZKLFKZDQWHGWREHIUHHGIURPWKH /'3·VUHLJQJDLQHGLWVSRZHUGHDOLQJZLWKDQGJXLGLQJWKHLQH[SHULHQFHG0RULKLUR +RVRNDZDFDELQHWDQGDOO\LQJZLWKWKH´UHIRUPHUµ,FKLUR2]DZD·VQHZSDUW\ +RZHYHU PRVW RIÀFLDOV ZRUNLQJ DW WKH )6X$ DUH IURP WKH 02)7KH DJHQF\ ZDV FUHDWHGE\VHSDUDWLQJWKH%DQNLQJDQG6HFXULWLHV%XUHDXVIURPWKH02)DQGMRLQLQJ WKHPZLWKWKH)LQDQFLDO,QVSHFWLRQ'HSDUWPHQW6HFXULW\DQG([FKDQJH6XUYHLOODQFH &RPPLVVLRQ6(6& DQG'HSRVLW,QVXUDQFH&RUS $OWKRXJK LW VHHPV WUXH WKDW WKH 02) DV D PLQLVWU\ KDG UHVLVWHG WKLV FKDQJH WKHUH DUH GHÀQLWH FKDQJHV LQ WKH DWWLWXGHV HVSHFLDOO\ DPRQJ WKH \RXQJHU FDUHHU 02) RIÀFLDOV VLQFH WKH PLGV UHJDUGLQJ WKH ZD\ ÀQDQFLDO PDWWHUV VKRXOG EH GHDOW ZLWK$VWKH\HDUVKDYHSDVVHGDIWHUWKHHDUO\VWKHSROLF\IDLOXUHVFUHDWHGE\ WKH 02) EHFDPH TXLWH HYLGHQW WR WKH 02) RIÀFLDOV WKHPVHOYHV ,Q RUGHU WR KHOS WKHPVHOYHV VRPH KRSHG IRU D QHZ VWDUW 0RUH LPSRUWDQWO\ WKH VHULHV RI VFDQGDOV HVSHFLDOO\WKRVHLQGXULQJZKLFKVRPH´RUGLQDU\RIÀFLDOVµZHUHDUUHVWHGVKRRN WKHFRQÀGHQFHRI02)RIÀFLDOV,QDGGLWLRQWKHFUHDWLRQRIWKH)6X$SUHVHQWHGWKHP ZLWKDUDUHRSSRUWXQLW\RIH[SDQGLQJWKHEXUHDXFUDF\LQWKHGD\VRIVWLQJ\ÀVFDODQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYHHQYLURQPHQW 2QHPDMRUFKDQJHQRWHGE\DIRUPHU02)DQGFXUUHQW)6$RIÀFLDOKDVEHHQWKDW´$W WKH)6$WKHUHLVQREDQNHUVZDONLQJDURXQGLQWKHKDOOZD\WU\LQJWRJHWLQIRUPDWLRQ DERXWRXUWKH$JHQF\·V SROLF\JXLGDQFH1RZDOOWKHSROLF\LQIRUPDWLRQLVSXEOLFO\ DYDLODEOHµ,QWHUYLHZZLWK)6$RIÀFLDO7RN\R-DSDQ-XQH ,WKDQN-HQQLIHU$P\[IRUSRLQWLQJRXWWKHLVVXHRILQWHUEXUHDXFUDWLFFRQÁLFWV )RUWKHGHWDLOVVHHWKH)6$ZHEVLWHKWWSZZZIVDJRMS 7KHVHLQLWLDWLYHVLQFOXGHWKHSURSRVDORIDQGXQVXFFHVVIXOELGWRHVWDEOLVKWKH$VLDQ 0RQHWDU\ )XQG LQ WKH PXOWLELOOLRQGROODU 1HZ 0L\D]DZD ,QLWLDWLYH RI VXSSRUW IRU WKH &KLDQJ 0DL ,QLWLDWLYH ZKLFK FUHDWHG FXUUHQF\ VZDS DUUDQJHPHQWV DPRQJ$VLDQFRXQWULHVLQ²$VLDQERQGLQLWLDWLYHVDQGÀQDOO\WKHSURSRVDO IRUHQKDQFHGXVHRIWKH\HQLQWKHUHJLRQLQFOXGLQJSRVVLEOHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRI$VLDQ 0RQHWDU\8QLRQ *ULPHV DOVRSRLQWVWRWKLVGLUHFWLRQ
Supporting sunset sectors 7KHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPLQ&KLQD·V HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW Kaja Sehrt
7KURXJKRXW(DVW$VLD´GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVµKDYHORQJIRVWHUHGWKHGHYHORSPHQW RI WDUJHWHG LQGXVWULDO VHFWRUV )LQDQFLDO V\VWHPV LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV UHPDLQHG SURWHFWHG IURP LQWHUQDWLRQDO SUHVVXUHV VR WKDW VWDWHGLUHFWHG EDQN OHQGLQJ FRXOGEHXVHGWRVXSSRUW´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVIRULQVWDQFHH[SRUWRULHQWHGOLJKW PDQXIDFWXULQJ LQ 7DLZDQ RU WKH VWHHO VHFWRU LQ .RUHD RU -DSDQ 7KH 3HRSOH·V 5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD35& WRRKDVPDLQWDLQHGDVWDWHGRPLQDWHGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP +RZHYHUDVWKLVFKDSWHUGHPRQVWUDWHVWKH35&JRYHUQPHQWLVXVLQJLWVÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU LQ D GLIIHUHQW PDQQHU 8QOLNH LQ RWKHU SDUWV RI (DVW $VLD JRYHUQPHQW LQWHUIHUHQFHLQWKHOHQGLQJGHFLVLRQVRI&KLQD·VVWDWHEDQNLQJV\VWHPKDVUHVXOWHG LQVXSSRUWIRUORVVPDNLQJRIWHQREVROHWHÀUPVXQYLDEOHDJULFXOWXUDOHQWHUSULVHV DQGUHJLRQVGLVDGYDQWDJHGE\PDUNHWRULHQWHGUHIRUPV,QRWKHUZRUGVLQ&KLQD EDQNVKDYHVXSSRUWHG´VXQVHWµVHFWRUVZKLFKLQWXUQKDVVLJQLÀFDQWO\GHOD\HGWKH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIWKHFRXQWU\·VÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP,QDQDO\]LQJWKHUROHRI&KLQD·V ÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPLQWKHFRXQWU\·VHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWLQWKHWZRGHFDGHVVLQFH WKH RQVHW RI HFRQRPLF UHIRUPV LQ WKLV FKDSWHU LGHQWLÀHV D IXQGDPHQWDO WHQVLRQ LQ WKH ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU RQ WKH RQH KDQG EDQN OHQGLQJ SDWWHUQV UHYHDO WKDWVWDWHEDQNVDUHQRWRSHUDWLQJLQDFRPPHUFLDOO\YLDEOHPDQQHURQWKHRWKHU KDQG &KLQD KDV FRPPLWWHG WR GHHSHQLQJ ÀQDQFLDO UHIRUPV XQGHU WKH WHUPV RI LWV DFFHVVLRQ WR WKH:72 E\ DOORZLQJ IRUHLJQ EDQNV WR RSHUDWH LQ LWV GRPHVWLF PDUNHWE\'HVSLWHWKLVH[WHUQDOFRPPLWPHQWGRPHVWLFSUHVVXUHVFRQWLQXH WROLPLWWKHSDFHDQGGHSWKRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQ FRPSDUHGZLWKUHIRUPVLQRWKHUVHFWRUV,QIDFWLWFRXOGEHDUJXHGWKDWWKHGHOD\ LQEDQNLQJUHIRUPVKDVHQDEOHGWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRPRYHDKHDGZLWKUHIRUPVLQ RWKHUVHFWRUV
Financing economic development 5DSLG JURZWK LQ (DVW$VLD LQ WKH SRVWZDU SHULRG LQVSLUHG LQWHUHVW LQ WKH UROH WKDWWKHVWDWHPLJKWSOD\LQWKHLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQRIVRFDOOHGODWHFRPHUV$OWKRXJK WKH VSHFLÀF WDUJHWV RI WKH LQGXVWULDO VWUDWHJLHV SXUVXHG E\ GLIIHUHQW (DVW$VLDQ SOD\HUV YDULHG RYHU WLPH DQG EHWZHHQ FRXQWULHV JRYHUQPHQW LQWHUYHQWLRQ ZDV DLPHG DW IRVWHULQJ WKH JURZWK RI new LQGXVWULDO VHFWRUV 7KHVH LQGXVWULHV ZHUH FKRVHQEHFDXVHWKH\KHOGJUHDWIXWXUHSURPLVHDQGZHUHH[SHFWHGWRRXWSHUIRUP
Sehrt RWKHU VHFWRUV 7KH\ W\SLFDOO\ IRVWHUHG WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI PRGHUQ WHFKQRORJ\ SURPRWHGJUHDWHUHIÀFLHQF\DQGHQKDQFHGSURGXFWLYLW\,QGXVWULDOSROLFLHVZHUH SULPDULO\DLPHGDWWKHinitialSURWHFWLRQDQGGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHVHVHFWRUVWKHUHE\ LPSURYLQJWKHFRXQWU\·VLQWHUQDWLRQDOORQJWHUPFRPSHWLWLYHQHVV,QRWKHUZRUGV WKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVXSSRUWHG´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVZKLFKZHUHH[SHFWHGWR FRQWULEXWHWRWKHRYHUDOODGYDQFHPHQWRIWKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\ 6XSSRUWIRU´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVZDVRUFKHVWUDWHGWKURXJKWKHGRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP,QIDFWWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUKDVEHHQGHVFULEHGDVWKH´QHUYHµRIWKH GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH:RR&XPLQJV &UHGLWEDVHGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPVVHUYHG DVHIIHFWLYHFRQGXLWVIRULQGXVWULDOSROLF\*RYHUQPHQWVXVHGDYDULHW\RIWRROV WRDVVHUWFRQWURORYHUÀQDQFLDOLQWHUPHGLDWLRQWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPZDVW\SLFDOO\ GRPLQDWHG E\ PDMRULW\ VWDWHRZQHG DQG RSHUDWHG EDQNV WKH FHQWUDO EDQN IROORZHGSROLF\GLUHFWLYHVVHWE\WKHEXUHDXFUDF\VSHFLDOGHYHORSPHQWEDQNVZHUH HVWDEOLVKHGDQGFKDUJHGZLWKWKHVXSSRUWIRUVWUDWHJLFLQGXVWULHVDQGJRYHUQPHQW GLUHFWHG OHQGLQJ VFKHPHV ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WDUJHWHG LQGXVWULDO VHFWRUV :KLOH WKH VSHFLÀF FUHGLW WDUJHWV DV ZHOO DV WKH WRROV IRU LQWHUYHQWLRQ LQ WKH ÀQDQFLDO V\VWHP VXFK DV SUHIHUHQWLDO LQWHUHVW UDWHV GLUHFWHG OHQGLQJ WDUJHWHG FUHGLWVFKHPHVHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIGHVLJQDWHGVWDWHGHYHORSPHQWEDQNVHWFYDULHG DFURVVWLPHDQGEHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVWKHPDLQLQWHQWRIJRYHUQPHQWSROLF\ ZDV WR VXSSRUW QDWLRQDO HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW $QG ZKLOH VRPH SUHIHUHQWLDO FUHGLWDOORFDWLRQUHÁHFWHGWKHYDU\LQJFRDOLWLRQDOVXSSRUWRIWKHGLIIHUHQWUHJLPHV IRU LQVWDQFH chaebol LQ .RUHD DQG VPDOOHU EXVLQHVV HQWUHSUHQHXUV LQ 7DLZDQ WKHPDMRULW\RISROLF\OHQGLQJZDVVWLOOGLUHFWHGWRVHFWRUVWKDWKHOGSURPLVHIRU LPSURYLQJ HFRQRPLF FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV LQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO DUHQD %\ DQG ODUJH JRYHUQPHQWVFKRVHWRVXSSRUW´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVZKHWKHUWKDWPHDQWGLUHFWLQJ ORDQVWR-DSDQ·V,6,LQGXVWULHVLQWKHHDUO\VSXVKLQJEDQNVWRVXSSRUWKHDY\ LQGXVWU\LQ.RUHDLQWKHVRUHDUPDUNLQJORDQVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\LQ7DLZDQLQWKHV 7KH PRGHO RI VWDWHOHG ÀQDQFH DQG SHUKDSV PRUH JHQHUDOO\ WKH LGHD RI WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH KDV EHHQ GLVFUHGLWHG E\ WKH VOXJJLVK SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH -DSDQHVH HFRQRP\ DV ZHOO DV WKH (DVW$VLDQ ÀQDQFLDO FULVLV LQ WKH ODWH V :KLOHSHUKDSVVXFFHVVIXOLQWKHVKRUWUXQJRYHUQPHQWVIRXQGLWGLIÀFXOWWRNHHS WKHLU FUHGLW SROLFLHV RQ WDUJHW LQ WKH ORQJHU WHUP /LNH RWKHU VWDWH HQWLWOHPHQWV SUHIHUHQWLDOFUHGLWRQFHJUDQWHGLVGLIÀFXOWWRZLWKGUDZ7KXVFHUWDLQLQGXVWULDO SROLFLHVVXFKDVWKHKHDY\LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQGULYHLQ.RUHDODWHUUHVXOWHGLQWKH DFFXPXODWLRQRIQRQSHUIRUPLQJDVVHWVLQWKHQDWLRQDOEDQNLQJV\VWHPDVVRPH RIWKHVHLQGXVWULHVEHFDPHVWUXFWXUDOO\GHSUHVVHGLQWKHVDQGV,QDGGLWLRQRYHUWLPHVRPHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUSROLFLHVGHYROYHGLQWRFOLHQWHOLVWLFSROLWLFV RILQGXVWULDOFUHGLWRQHRIWKHIDFWRUVWKDWFRQWULEXWHGWRWKH(DVW$VLDQÀQDQFLDO FULVLV$QGLQVWHDGRIYLHZLQJ(DVW$VLDDVWKHKDUELQJHURIDQHZGHYHORSPHQWDO PRGHORIVWDWHOHGJURZWKZHKDYHFRPHWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHUHJLRQDVRQHFRPSULVLQJ´ODWHOLEHUDOL]HUVµ 6RPHDQDO\VWVKDYHDUJXHGWKDW&KLQDLVIROORZLQJLQWKHIRRWVWHSVRILWV(DVW $VLDQ QHLJKERUV 5DSLG JURZWK FRPELQHG ZLWK KLJK OHYHOV RI FHQWUDO DQG ORFDO JRYHUQPHQW LQYROYHPHQW LQ WKH GRPHVWLF HFRQRP\ RYHU WKH SDVW WZR GHFDGHV
Supporting sunset sectors VHHPWRVXJJHVWWKDWWKHVWDWHSOD\HGDVLPLODUO\SURDFWLYHUROHLQSURPRWLQJWKH FRXQWU\·VLQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFVWDQGLQJDVZRXOGEHDSSURSULDWHIRUD&KLQHVH ´GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWHµ VHH DOVR 7VDL DQG &RRN LQ WKLV YROXPH ,QGHHG PXFK OLNHLWV(DVW$VLDQQHLJKERUVWKH35&KDVXVHGWKHGRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPWR DGGUHVVFRQFHUQVRIHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW,QFRQWUDVWWRLWV(DVW$VLDQQHLJKERUVKRZHYHULQ&KLQDÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUSROLFLHVKDYHEHHQXVHGWRVXSSRUWZKDW PD\EHVWEHGHHPHG´VXQVHWµVHFWRUV,QWKH35&VWDWHGLUHFWHGEDQNOHQGLQJ KDVEHHQXVHGWRVXSSRUWORVVPDNLQJVWDWHRZQHGLQGXVWU\DVZHOODVXQYLDEOH DJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQDQGGLYHUWHGIXQGVIURPIDVWJURZLQJFRDVWDOUHJLRQVWR WKHOHVVGHYHORSHGKLQWHUODQG 7KHFKDSWHUÀUVWJLYHVDEULHIRYHUYLHZRIWKH35&·VÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPVLQFH WKHEHJLQQLQJRIHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVLQWKHHDUO\VLQFOXGLQJDGLVFXVVLRQRI WKHWRROVDYDLODEOHWR&KLQD·VSROLF\PDNHUVIRUFRQWUROOLQJWKHGRPHVWLFEDQNLQJ V\VWHPDQGGLUHFWLQJOHQGLQJWRWKHLU´SULRULW\µVHFWRUV,WWKHQIRFXVHVRQOHQGLQJSDWWHUQVLQWKH35&,OD\RXWDVHULHVRIH[SHFWDWLRQVDERXWWKHGLUHFWLRQRI EDQNOHQGLQJDFURVVGLIIHUHQWVHFWRUVDQGJHRJUDSKLFUHJLRQV,WKHQH[DPLQHWKH DOORFDWLRQRIEDQNOHQGLQJLQ&KLQD7KHHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKH35&JRYHUQPHQWKDVXVHGWKHGRPHVWLFEDQNLQJV\VWHPWRUHGLVWULEXWHIXQGVDFURVVUHJLRQV QRW DFFRUGLQJ WR HFRQRPLF SULRULWLHV EXW UDWKHU LQ UHVSRQVH WR FRQFHUQV DERXW XQHPSOR\PHQWDQGVRFLDOXQUHVW*RYHUQPHQWSROLFLHVVXSSRUW´VXQVHWµVHFWRUV LQUHJLRQVWKDWDUHHFRQRPLFDOO\GLVDGYDQWDJHGUDWKHUWKDQ´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVLQ WKHIDVWHUGHYHORSLQJFRDVWDODUHDV7KHFRQFOXVLRQHODERUDWHVRQWKHLPSOLFDWLRQV RIWKHVHÀQGLQJVIRURQHRIWKHFHQWUDOTXHVWLRQVSRVHGLQWKHYROXPH+RZGR GRPHVWLF DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRQFHUQV DIIHFW UHIRUP G\QDPLFV LQ D JLYHQ VHFWRU" 7KLVFKDSWHUGHPRQVWUDWHVKRZLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHVDUHPLWLJDWHGE\GRPHVWLF FRQVWUDLQWV ,Q &KLQD ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRU OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ KDV SURFHHGHG DW D JODFLDO SDFH²SDUWLFXODUO\ZKHQFRPSDUHGZLWKUHIRUPVLQRWKHUVHFWRUVVXFKDVIRUHLJQ GLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW)', RUWUDGH²GXHWRSUHVVLQJSROLWLFDOGHPDQGVWRDGGUHVV FRQFHUQVRIUHJLRQDOHTXDOLW\DQGSROLWLFDOVWDELOLW\ :K\GLG&KLQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVQRWIHHODQ\SUHVVXUHWRUHVSRQGWRWKHFUHGLW QHHGV RI HPHUJLQJ ´VXQULVHµ LQGXVWULHV" 2QH LPSRUWDQW UHDVRQ WKDW PD\ KDYH GULYHQWKHLQLWLDOSROLF\PDNLQJZDVWKDWLQWKHHDUO\UHIRUPSHULRGWKHUHZDVQR YLDEOHVHWRIFRQVWLWXHQWVIRUIDUUHDFKLQJÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUUHIRUPV,QVWHDG´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVEHQHÀWHG²HVSHFLDOO\LQWKHFRDVWDODUHDV²IURPWKHSURPXOJDWLRQ RIRWKHUPDUNHWRULHQWHGSROLFLHVLQFOXGLQJHDUO\DQGPHDQLQJIXOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI WKH)',UHJLPH7KXVVWDWHRZQHGHQWHUSULVH62( PDQDJHUVZKRVHFRPSDQLHV FRQWLQXHWRHPSOR\DVLJQLÀFDQWSURSRUWLRQRIWKHXUEDQZRUNIRUFHIDUPHUVZLWK GHFOLQLQJ LQFRPHV DQG SURYLQFHV OHIW EHKLQG E\ WKH FRDVWDO GHYHORSPHQW UXVK KDYH FRPH WR GRPLQDWH WKH DJHQGD RI SROLF\PDNHUV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK ÀQDQFLDO VHFWRUUHIRUP
7KH&KLQHVHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP 8QOLNH LWV FRXQWHUSDUWV LQ RWKHU WUDQVLWLRQ HFRQRPLHV LQ (DVWHUQ (XURSH RU WKH IRUPHU 6RYLHW 8QLRQ WKH &KLQHVH JRYHUQPHQW GLG QRW UHJDUG UHIRUP RI WKH FRXQWU\·VÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUDVDSROLF\SULRULW\DWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHHFRQRPLF
Sehrt UHIRUPSURFHVVLQ7KHPRUHJUDGXDOLVW&KLQHVHDSSURDFKWRWKHWUDQVLWLRQ IURPSODQWRPDUNHWNHSWWKHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHGRPHVWLFEDQNLQJV\VWHPWKDWKDG EHHQLQKHULWHGIURPWKHVRFLDOLVWHUDODUJHO\LQSODFH'HVSLWHWKHODFNRIÀQDQFLDO VHFWRUUHIRUPWKHUHVXOWVRIUHIRUPVLQWKHUHDOVHFWRUZHUHTXLFNO\UHÁHFWHGLQ WKHEDODQFHVKHHWVRIWKHFRXQWU\·VEDQNV(FRQRPLFJURZWKIDFLOLWDWHGWKHUDSLG GHHSHQLQJRIWKH35&·VÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP2YHUWKHSDVWWZRGHFDGHVEDQNGHSRVLWV KDYH LQFUHDVHG GUDPDWLFDOO\ ,Q WKH\ VWRRG DW DERXW SHUFHQW RI JURVV QDWLRQDOSURGXFW*13 E\WKH\KDGUHDFKHGDYROXPHHTXDOWRDERXW SHUFHQWRI*137KLVLVSULPDULO\GXHWRDQH[WUDRUGLQDU\EXLOGXSRIKRXVHKROG VDYLQJV:KHUHDVDWWKHRXWVHWRIHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVLQKRXVHKROGGHSRVLWV DFFRXQWHGIRURQO\SHUFHQWRIWRWDOGHSRVLWVWKHUHPDLQGHUEHLQJPDGHXSE\ HQWHUSULVHV E\KRXVHKROGGHSRVLWVLQ&KLQD·VEDQNLQJV\VWHPDPRXQWHGWR RYHUSHUFHQWRIDOOGHSRVLWVHTXLYDOHQWWRURXJKO\SHUFHQWRI*13,Q&KLQD WKHUDSLGEXLOGXSRIKRXVHKROGVDYLQJVKDVKHOSHGEDQNVWRXQGHUZULWHDQHYHQ PRUHUDSLGO\JURZLQJQXPEHURIEDQNORDQV 7KHEXONRIDOOOHQGLQJLVSURYLGHGE\IRXUVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNVWKDWZHUHFDUYHG RXWIURPWKHVRFLDOLVWPRQREDQNLQWKHHDUO\V,QWKHHDUO\UHIRUPSHULRG ² VSHFLDOL]HGEDQNOHQGLQJZDVGLFWDWHGE\WKHVWLSXODWLRQVRIDQDWLRQDO FUHGLWSODQWKDWVSHFLÀHGFUHGLWFHLOLQJVDVZHOODVVSHFLÀFOHQGLQJWDUJHWV7KH GHJUHHWRZKLFKFUHGLWFHLOLQJVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGWREH´ELQGLQJµRUZKHWKHUWKH\ DPRXQWHGWRPHUH´JXLGDQFHµWDUJHWVÁXFWXDWHGRYHUWLPHLQOLQHZLWKWKHLQÁDWLRQ FRQWURO FRQFHUQV RI WKH FHQWUDO JRYHUQPHQW
Supporting sunset sectors UROHRIORFDOJRYHUQPHQWLQWKHDOORFDWLRQRIORDQVDQGWKXVWRSXWWKHOHQGLQJ SURFHGXUHVRIWKHFRXQWU\·VEDQNVRQDPRUHFRPPHUFLDOIRRWLQJ,QSULQFLSOHD FRQVHTXHQFHRIWKHUHIRUPVVKRXOGKDYHEHHQDFKDQJHLQOHQGLQJSUDFWLFHVE\WKH QHZ´FRPPHUFLDOµEDQNLQJV\VWHP7KHUHIRUPVKRZHYHUVXFFHHGHGRQO\ZLWK UHJDUGWRWKHÀUVWJRDO$QGZKLOHWKH\PD\KDYHDOVRUHGXFHGWKHUROHSOD\HG E\ORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVLQWKHOHQGLQJGHFLVLRQVRIWKHIRXUVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNVWKH\ FHUWDLQO\GLGQRWHQGDOOSROLF\OHQGLQJVLQFHWKH\LQVWHDGKHOSHGWRUHFHQWUDOL]H GHFLVLRQPDNLQJRYHUWKHGLUHFWLRQRISROLF\ORDQV
Government control of the banking system 7KHUHDUHPDQ\ZD\VWRGHPRQVWUDWHFRQWLQXHGSROLF\OHQGLQJDQGPRUHJHQHUDOO\ JRYHUQPHQW FRQWURO RYHU WKH GRPHVWLF EDQNLQJ V\VWHP 7KUHH RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQWFRQWUROOHYHUVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWLQFOXGHRZQHUVKLSRIGRPHVWLFEDQNV DSSRLQWPHQWRIEDQNPDQDJHUVDQGFHQWUDOEDQNUHÀQDQFLQJ 7KH JRYHUQPHQW FRQWLQXHV WR RZQ WKH EDQNV DQG RWKHU ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV WKDWDFFRXQWIRUWKHEXONRIDOOOHQGLQJ2ZQHUVKLSLVW\SLFDOO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH DXWKRULW\WRDSSRLQWEDQNPDQDJHUVDQGVHWEURDGEXVLQHVVWDUJHWVDQGSHUIRUPDQFH JRDOV+HQFHVWDWHRZQHGEDQNVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRPDNHORDQVDFFRUGLQJWRJRYHUQPHQWLQVWUXFWLRQV,Q&KLQDWKHJRYHUQPHQWKDVUHVWULFWHGEDQNOLFHQVLQJWR JRYHUQPHQWUXQÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV7RGDWHWKHUHDUHYLUWXDOO\QRSULYDWHEDQNV WKDWRSHUDWHXQHQFXPEHUHGIURPVWDWHLQWHUIHUHQFH$QGDVLGHIURPVPDOOVFDOH H[SHULPHQWVLQVRPHFLWLHVIRUHLJQEDQNVKDYHQRWEHHQDOORZHGWRFRQGXFWEXVLQHVVWUDQVDFWLRQVLQORFDOFXUUHQF\ *RYHUQPHQWV DW GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI WKH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH KLHUDUFK\ FRQWURO WKH DSSRLQWPHQWRIEDQNRIÀFLDOVDQGVXSHUYLVHEDQNLQJRSHUDWLRQV$OOPDQDJHPHQW SRVLWLRQV LQ WKH EDQNLQJ V\VWHP GRZQ WR WKH GLUHFWRU DQG GHSXW\ GLUHFWRUV RI VSHFLDOL]HGEDQNEUDQFKHVDWWKHFRXQW\OHYHOIDOOXQGHUWKH35&·Vnomenklatura DSSRLQWPHQWV\VWHP,QRWKHUZRUGVEDQNPDQDJHUVDUHQRWDSSRLQWHGVROHO\IURP ZLWKLQWKHEDQNEXWDUHVXEMHFWWRDSSURYDOIURPRUJDQVRIWKH&&3UHVSRQVLEOHIRU DSSRLQWPHQWVWRSRVLWLRQVLQWKHJRYHUQPHQWEXUHDXFUDF\ $QDGGLWLRQDOPHFKDQLVPIRULQÁXHQFLQJWKHGLUHFWLRQRIEDQNOHQGLQJLVVSHFLDOORDQUHÀQDQFLQJIDFLOLWLHVFRQWUROOHGE\WKH35&·VFHQWUDOEDQNWKH3HRSOH·V %DQNRI&KLQD3%& 7KH3%&PDLQWDLQVDSRRORIIXQGVGUDZQIURPWKHSRVWDO VDYLQJVV\VWHPDQGVSHFLDOERQGLVVXHVDVZHOODVUHVHUYHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUWKH FRPPHUFLDO EDQNLQJ V\VWHP 7KHVH IXQGV DUH XVHG WR UHÀQDQFH ORDQV WKDW DUH VSHFLÀFDOO\HDUPDUNHGIRUSROLF\SXUSRVHV8QWLOWKHPLGVWKLVOHQGLQJZDV FKDQQHOHGWRWKHEUDQFKHVRIWKHFRXQWU\·VVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNV7KHUHIRUPV HVWDEOLVKHGWKUHHSROLF\EDQNVWKDWÀQDQFHDOORIWKHLUOHQGLQJWKURXJKWKHVH3%& FRQWUROOHGIXQGV6LQFHLQFHSWLRQWKHSROLF\EDQNVKDYHUHJLVWHUHGWKHODUJHVW LQFUHDVHLQQDWLRQDOPDUNHWVKDUHIRUORDQVDPRQJDOOW\SHVRIEDQNV)LYH\HDUV DIWHUWKHLUHVWDEOLVKPHQWLQWKHFRPELQHGORDQVRIWKHWKUHHSROLF\EDQNV DPRXQWHGWRSHUFHQWRIWRWDOFUHGLWH[WHQGHGE\WKHEDQNLQJV\VWHP :KLOHWKHUHIRUPVUHÁHFWDQDWWHPSWE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWWRVHSDUDWHSROLF\ IURP FRPPHUFLDO OHQGLQJ WKH\ GLG QRW KDYH WKH GHVLUHG HIIHFW RI UHGXFLQJ WKH
Sehrt RYHUDOO UHOLDQFH RI WKH EDQNLQJ V\VWHP RQ FHQWUDO EDQN UHÀQDQFLQJ ,Q IDFW E\ IRUFHGLQVWLWXWLRQDOERQGVDOHVDQGFHQWUDOEDQNUHOHQGLQJÀQDQFHGVOLJKWO\ PRUHRIWKHWRWDOORDQSRUWIROLRRI&KLQD·VEDQNVWKDQEHIRUHWKHUHIRUPV,Q FHQWUDOEDQNUHÀQDQFLQJZDVHTXLYDOHQWWRURXJKO\RQHTXDUWHURIRXWVWDQGLQJORDQVLQWKHEDQNLQJV\VWHP%\UHOHQGLQJFRPELQHGZLWKWKHIRUFHG SROLF\EDQNERQGLVVXHVDFFRXQWHGIRUDOPRVWSHUFHQWRIRXWVWDQGLQJORDQV %\FHQWUDOEDQNUHOHQGLQJDQGSROLF\EDQNERQGLVVXHVVWLOODFFRXQWHGIRU SHUFHQWRIDOORXWVWDQGLQJORDQVHTXLYDOHQWWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\RQHTXDUWHURI *13,QVWHDGRIGLPLQLVKLQJWKHLQÁXHQFHRIJRYHUQPHQWSUHIHUHQFHVRQEDQN OHQGLQJWKHUHIRUPVLQVWLWXWHGLQKDYHKHOSHGWRPDLQWDLQDKLJKSURSRUWLRQ RIOHQGLQJÀQDQFHGHLWKHUGLUHFWO\E\WKHFHQWUDOEDQNRUWKURXJKWKHPDQGDWRU\ VDOHRISROLF\EDQNERQGVWRWKH´FRPPHUFLDOµEDQNLQJV\VWHP ,Q VXPPDU\ DOWKRXJK &KLQD·V EDQNLQJ V\VWHP KDV GHHSHQHG GUDPDWLFDOO\ VLQFHWKHRQVHWRIHFRQRPLFUHIRUPVVWDWHFRQWURORIEDQNVKDVQRWGLPLQLVKHG *RYHUQPHQWRIÀFLDOVKDYHDYDULHW\RIWRROVWRGLUHFWOHQGLQJIRUSROLF\SXUSRVHV $OWKRXJKFRQWURORYHUEDQNOHQGLQJPD\QRWEHDVFHQWUDOL]HGDVLQWKH(DVW$VLDQ QHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGHFRQRPLHV1,(V UHIRUPVLQVWLWXWHGLQVWUHQJWKHQHG WKH UROH RI FHQWUDO JRYHUQPHQW GHFLVLRQPDNHUV7KH 3%& UHÀQDQFLQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV IRU LQVWDQFH DUH XQGHU WKH H[FOXVLYH SXUYLHZ RI 3%& KHDGTXDUWHUV LQ %HLMLQJ*LYHQWKDWWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDVPDLQWDLQHGDKLJKOHYHORIVWDWH UHVWULFWLRQRIWKHGRPHVWLFEDQNLQJV\VWHPWRZKDWHQGVGR&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQW EXUHDXFUDWVXVHWKHLUFRQWURORYHUEDQNOHQGLQJ"
Expectations about the direction of bank lending ,I&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWSROLFHVZHUHLQOLQHZLWKWKHFODVVLFGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH PRGHOZHVKRXOGVHHOHQGLQJGLUHFWHGWR´VXQULVHµVHFWRUV,Q&KLQD·VFDVHWKHVH ZRXOG SUHVXPDEO\ EH LQGXVWULHV WKDW FRQWULEXWH WR HFRQRPLF JURZWK HQKDQFH SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG SURPLVH HIÀFLHQF\ JDLQV *LYHQ &KLQD·V H[SRUWRULHQWHG JURZWKSROLFLHVWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPVKRXOGFKDQQHOIXQGVWRLQGXVWULHVLQYROYHG LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI JRRGV ZLWK KLJK H[SRUW SRWHQWLDO$GGLWLRQDO WDUJHWV FRXOG LQFOXGH UDSLGJURZWK VHFWRUV VXFK DV VXFK DV LQIRUPDWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\ VRIWZDUH GHYHORSPHQWRUFRQVXPHUHOHFWURQLFV )XUWKHUPRUHLIWKHJRYHUQPHQWZDVDFWLYHO\VXSSRUWLQJ´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHV RULIGLIIHUHQWJHRJUDSKLFUHJLRQVZHUHFRPSHWLQJIRUIXQGVRQPDUNHWSULQFLSOHV ZHVKRXOGÀQGWKDWWKRVHDUHDVRIWKHFRXQWU\WKDWJXDUDQWHHEHWWHUUHWXUQVVKRXOG EHFRPH WKH SUHIHUUHG GHVWLQDWLRQ IRU EDQN OHQGLQJ &KLQD·V HFRQRPLF UHIRUPV KDYH UHVXOWHG LQ DQ LQFUHDVH LQ UHJLRQDO GLVSDULWLHV 0DQ\ SURYLQFHV LQ FRDVWDO &KLQDKDYHJURZQPXFKPRUHTXLFNO\WKDQWKHFRXQWU\·VLQWHULRUUHJLRQV
Lending patterns in industry and agriculture Industry 7KURXJKRXWWKHHDUO\UHIRUPSHULRGDQGDWOHDVWXQWLOWKHFUHGLWSODQV\VWHP IDFLOLWDWHGWKHDOORFDWLRQRIORDQVWR62(V62(VXVHGWREHWKHPDLQVWD\RIWKH
Supporting sunset sectors &KLQHVH HFRQRP\ ,Q VHYHQ \HDUV DIWHU WKH ÀUVW HFRQRPLF UHIRUPV ZHUH XQGHUWDNHQWKH\VWLOODFFRXQWHGIRUSHUFHQWRIWKHFRXQWU\·VJURVVRXWSXWYDOXH RILQGXVWU\%\WKDWUDWLRKDGGURSSHGWRSHUFHQWVKULQNLQJWRSHUFHQW LQ2ZLQJWRUHVWULFWLYHOLFHQVLQJSROLFLHV62(VVWLOOGRPLQDWHJURVVRXWSXW LQFHUWDLQLQGXVWULDOVXEVHFWRUVVXFKDVH[SORUDWLRQRIQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVQDPHO\ RLO QDWXUDO JDV FRDO DQG ORJJLQJ DQG DVVRFLDWHG LQGXVWULHV VXFK DV UHÀQLQJ DQGFRRNLQJDVZHOODVHQHUJ\JHQHUDWLRQPHWDOOXUJ\WREDFFRFKHPLFDOVDQG SKDUPDFHXWLFDOV
Total loans (billion renminbi)
TVEs (%)
6RXUFHV&DOFXODWHGIURP66%
Private enterprises (%)
Foreign-invested enterprises (%)
Sehrt RI DOO EDQN OHQGLQJ LV VWLOO GLUHFWHG WR VWDWHRZQHG LQGXVWU\ ,Q WKH PLGV WKHVH HQWHUSULVHV VWLOO HPSOR\HG XS WR RYHU SHUFHQW RI WKH XUEDQ ZRUNIRUFH 'HVSLWHRIÀFLDOFODLPVWKDWWKHQDWLRQDOXUEDQXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWHKDVUHPDLQHG OHVVWKDQSHUFHQWWKURXJKRXWWKHUHIRUPSHULRGXQHPSOR\PHQWKDVEHFRPHD VHULRXVSUREOHPHVSHFLDOO\LQVRPHRIWKHODUJHUFLWLHV8QRIÀFLDOHVWLPDWHVSXW XUEDQXQHPSOR\PHQWLQDW²SHUFHQWRU²PLOOLRQXUEDQUHVLGHQWV 7RWDOOD\RIIVDWWULEXWHGWRHFRQRPLFUHVWUXFWXULQJVLQFHWKHPLGVKDYHEHHQ HVWLPDWHGWRVWDQGDWDERXWPLOOLRQWKXVDIIHFWLQJDERXWDTXDUWHURIWKHWRWDO XUEDQZRUNIRUFHRIURXJKO\PLOOLRQVHH6ROLQJHU ,QOLHXRIDV\VWHPRIXQHPSOR\PHQWDQGRUZHOIDUHEHQHÀWVÀQDQFHGE\VWDWH IXQGV 62(V KDYH EHHQ LQVWUXFWHG WR NHHS ZRUNHUV RQ WKHLU SD\UROOV UHJDUGOHVV RISURÀWDELOLW\6LQFHPDQ\62(VFDQQRWDIIRUGWRSD\ZDJHVWKH\KDYHWRUHO\ H[FOXVLYHO\RQEDQNORDQVWRPHHWWKHVHREOLJDWLRQV,IORDQVDUHQRWIRUWKFRPLQJ ZDJHVGRQRWJHWSDLG,QWKHVXPPHURIWKH0LQLVWU\RI/DERUDGPLWWHG WKDWDERXWPLOOLRQ62(ZRUNHUVKDGQRWUHFHLYHGZDJHVLQRYHUVL[PRQWKVRU ZHUHXQGHUSDLG2WKHUVRXUFHVSXWWKHWRWDOQXPEHUDWPLOOLRQ´2IÀFLDOV6D\ +DLQDQ 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN &ORVHG E\ 3%2&µ Agence France Press -XQH $V ZDJH DUUHDUV KDYH WXUQHG LQWR D ZLGHVSUHDG SKHQRPHQRQ UHSRUWV RI ODERUXQUHVWWKURXJKRXWWKHFRXQWU\KDYHLQFUHDVHG :KLOHIURPDSROLWLFDOSRLQWRIYLHZLWVHHPVSHUIHFWO\UHDVRQDEOHWRFRQWLQXH WRFKDQQHOEDQNOHQGLQJLQWRZDJHVXSSRUWVIRUXQRUXQGHUHPSOR\HGXUEDQODERU IURPDQHFRQRPLFSHUVSHFWLYHWKHFRQWLQXLQJIRFXVRQOHQGLQJWR62(VLVSDUWLFXODUO\ DODUPLQJ ZKHQ HYHQ E\ RIÀFLDO HVWLPDWHV PRUH WKDQ WZRWKLUGV RI 62(V DUHPDNLQJDORVVRUEDUHO\EUHDNLQJHYHQ$FFRUGLQJWRRQHVRXUFHDOUHDG\LQ DERXWSHUFHQWRIVWDWHÀUPVZHUHORVLQJPRQH\4LX ,QVWDWH HQWHUSULVHVKDGDGHEW²HTXLW\UDWLRRISHUFHQWDQGDGHEW²ZRUNLQJFDSLWDO UDWLRRISHUFHQW%\WKRVHWZRLQGH[HVKDGFOLPEHGWRSHUFHQWDQG SHUFHQWUHVSHFWLYHO\$VXUYH\FRQGXFWHGE\DFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWUHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWHVKRZVWKDWLQWKH62(GHEW²HTXLW\UDWLRWRSSHGSHUFHQWDQGWKH UDWLR RI GHEW WR ZRUNLQJ FDSLWDOH[FHHGHG SHUFHQW /LX DQG 4LX 7KLV UHSUHVHQWVDFRQVLGHUDEOHEXUGHQIRUEDQNVVLQFHPDQ\RIWKHVHHQWHUSULVHVGRQRW HYHQJHQHUDWHHQRXJKUHYHQXHWRNHHSXSZLWKLQWHUHVWSD\PHQWV,Q&KLQD·V LQGXVWULDOHQWHUSULVHVKDGDJURVVORDQLQWHUHVWRXWOD\RIELOOLRQUHQPLQELRU WLPHVWKHLUQHWSURÀWV/LXDQG4LX Agriculture $JULFXOWXUHKDVEHFRPHDQRWKHULPSRUWDQWWDUJHWIRUVWDWHGLUHFWHGSROLF\OHQGLQJ $OWKRXJKUHIRUPVRI&KLQD·VDJULFXOWXUDOV\VWHPPRVWLPSRUWDQWO\WKHLQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH KRXVHKROG UHVSRQVLELOLW\ V\VWHP JUHDWO\ FRQWULEXWHG WR WKH LQLWLDO JDLQV IURPHFRQRPLFUHIRUPLQWKHODWHVDQGHDUO\VPRUHUHFHQWO\WKHVHFWRU KDVEHFRPHRQHRIWKHNH\SUREOHPDUHDV6LQFHWKHPLGV&KLQDKDVKDGD VXUSOXVRIJUDLQDQGRWKHUDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWVKRZHYHUHIIRUWVWRFXWJURZLQJ DUHDV DQGRU UHVHUYH IDUPODQG IRU KLJKHUTXDOLW\ FURSV KDYH EHHQ GLIÀFXOW WR LPSOHPHQW$ODUJHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQVWLOOOLYHVLQWKHFRXQWU\VLGHDQG
Supporting sunset sectors DOWHUQDWLYHHPSOR\PHQWLVGLIÀFXOWWRFRPHE\$VSULFHVIRUDJULFXOWXUDOJRRGV KDYHGHFOLQHGIDUPHUV·KRXVHKROGLQFRPHVKDYHGHFUHDVHGDQGWKHWD[UHYHQXHV UDLVHGE\FRXQW\JRYHUQPHQWVKDYHQRWEHHQKROGLQJXSZLWKORFDOH[SHQVHV$V UHÁHFWHGLQ3UHPLHU=KX5RQJML·VZRUNUHSRUWDWWKH0DUFK1DWLRQDO3HRSOH·V &RQJUHVVWKHUXUDOHFRQRP\DQGUDLVLQJIDUPHUV·LQFRPHVDUHWRSSULRULWLHVIRU WKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWSDUWLFXODUO\DVWKHLQFRPHJDSEHWZHHQUXUDODQGXUEDQ UHVLGHQWVFRQWLQXHVWRJURZ 2QHNH\SROLF\LQVWUXPHQWDWWKHJRYHUQPHQW·VGLVSRVDOLVDQDWLRQZLGHJUDLQ SXUFKDVLQJV\VWHPWKDWJXDUDQWHHVWKHVWDWHSXUFKDVHRIEDVLFIRRGVWXIIVVXFKDV ULFHFRUQZKHDWHGLEOHRLOVHWFDWVXEVLGL]HGSULFHV:KLOHWKHUHKDVEHHQD FRQVLGHUDEOH GHJUHH RI OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ZKLFK KDV LQFOXGHG UHGXFLQJ PDQGDWRU\ GHOLYHU\ TXRWDV DQG UDLVLQJ SURFXUHPHQW SULFHV WR PDUNHW OHYHOV PDQ\ ÁDZV UHPDLQZLWKWKLVV\VWHPDQGGHVSLWHUHSHDWHGDWWHPSWVDWUHIRUPWKHVHKDYHQRW EHHQDGGUHVVHGDGHTXDWHO\:KLOHLQLWLDOO\HVWDEOLVKHGWRSURWHFWWKHIRRGVXSSO\ RIXUEDQUHVLGHQWVLQLQODQGFLWLHVWKLVV\VWHPJUDGXDOO\KDVWXUQHGLQWRDSROLF\ LQVWUXPHQWIRUGHOLYHULQJIXQGVWRWKHFRXQWU\VLGH7KHYDVWPDMRULW\RIWKHVHVWDWH JUDLQSXUFKDVHVDUHÀQDQFHGE\WKHEDQNLQJV\VWHP 7KXVWKURXJKWKHVWDWHJUDLQSXUFKDVLQJV\VWHPEDQNVKDYHVKRXOGHUHGPXFK RIWKHEXUGHQRIFKDQQHOLQJVXSSRUWWRWKHDLOLQJDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRU$VVKRZQLQ 7DEOHFHQWUDOEDQNUHÀQDQFLQJWRVXSSRUWDJULFXOWXUHKDVLQFUHDVHGVXEVWDQWLDOO\RYHUWLPH%HWZHHQWKHPLGVDQGODWHVWKHWRWDODPRXQWLQFUHDVHG PRUHWKDQWHQIROGZLWKDQQXDOLQFUHDVHVJURZLQJSDUWLFXODUO\UDSLGO\LQWKHPLG Table 9.2 *RYHUQPHQWVXSSRUWIRUDJULFXOWXUHYLDWKHEDQNLQJV\VWHP²
Year
Central bank relending to support agriculture (billion renminbi)
Annual rate of increase (%)
Central bank relending to support agriculture (expressed as % of GNP)
²
Note 7KHVOLJKWGHFUHDVHLQUHOHQGLQJLQLVOLNHO\WREHFRUUHODWHGZLWKEDGORDQZULWHRIIVE\WKH $JULFXOWXUDO%DQNRI&KLQD 6RXUFH&DOFXODWHGIURP3%&DQQXDOUHSRUWVDVZHOODV3%&YDULRXV\HDUV
Sehrt V7RWDOFHQWUDOEDQNUHOHQGLQJIRUDJULFXOWXUDOSXUSRVHVZDVHTXLYDOHQWWR RUSHUFHQWRI*13LQWKHVDQGHDUO\VLQLWUHDFKHG² SHUFHQW,QFRQWUDVWDWWKHVDPHWLPHÀVFDOUHVRXUFHVGHYRWHGWRVXSSRUWLQJDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQDQGXSGDWLQJWHFKQRORJLHVDVZHOODVUXUDOUHOLHIIXQGVZHUH HTXLYDOHQWWRRQO\URXJKO\SHUFHQWRI*13 %DQNOHQGLQJLVSULPDULO\XVHGWRÀQDQFHWKHSXUFKDVHRIDJULFXOWXUDOJRRGV DQGWKHSURFHVVLQJRIJUDLQFRWWRQDQGHGLEOHRLOVDVZHOODVWRDOOHYLDWHSRYHUW\ LQVSHFLDOO\GHVLJQDWHGFRXQWLHV7KHPRWLYDWLRQIRUWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIRQHRI WKHSROLF\EDQNVWKH$JULFXOWXUDO'HYHORSPHQW%DQNRI&KLQD$'%& ZDVWR SXWWKHOHQGLQJRSHUDWLRQVRIRQHRIWKHVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNVWKH$JULFXOWXUDO%DQN RI &KLQD $%& RQ D PRUH FRPPHUFLDOIRRWLQJE\ VKLIWLQJWKH EDQN·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·V RXWVWDQGLQJ ORDQVLQFUHDVHGUDSLGO\WKURXJKRXWWKHODWHV
Lending patterns across geographic regions &KLQD·VHFRQRPLFJURZWKRYHUWKHSDVWWZRGHFDGHVKDVEHHQDFFRPSDQLHGE\ ULVLQJ LQFRPH LQHTXDOLWLHV ² QRW RQO\ DV GLVFXVVHG DERYH EHWZHHQ UXUDO DQG XUEDQ DUHDV EXW DOVR EHWZHHQ FRDVWDO &KLQD DQG UHJLRQV LQ WKH OHVV GHYHORSHG KLQWHUODQG $OWKRXJK WKH UHDVRQV IRU WKH JURZLQJ GLVSDULWLHV DUH FRPSOH[ DQG V\VWHPDWLF UHVHDUFK LV FRQIRXQGHG E\ SRRU GDWD DQG FRPSDULVRQV OLPLWHG WR DGPLQLVWUDWLYHGLYLVLRQVW\SLFDOO\WKHSURYLQFLDORUFRXQW\OHYHO WKHPDLQWUHQGV FDQ EH VXPPDUL]HG DV IROORZV$V &KLQD RSHQHG WR WKH RXWVLGH ZRUOG FRDVWDO SURYLQFHV ZHUH LQ D EHWWHU SRVLWLRQ WR VHL]H WKH RSSRUWXQLWLHV SUHVHQWHG E\ WKH SUR[LPLW\WRZRUOGPDUNHWVDFFHVVWREHWWHULQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGDEHWWHUHGXFDWHG ODERU IRUFH 3UHIHUHQWLDO FHQWUDO JRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV WKDW HQFRXUDJHG FRDVWDO SURYLQFHV ´WR JHW ULFK ÀUVWµ KHOSHG VWLPXODWH IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW$V VKRZQ LQ 7DEOHDYHUDJHDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHVRIUHDOSHUFDSLWDJURVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFW *'3 EHWZHHQ DQG YDU\ JUHDWO\ E\ SURYLQFH $W WKH VDPH WLPH LQWHUSURYLQFLDO KRXVHKROG LQFRPH LQHTXDOLWLHV LQFUHDVHG ,Q UHVLGHQWV RI LQWHULRU &KLQD HDUQHG SHUFHQW DV PXFK DV WKHLU FRDVWDO FRXQWHUSDUWV EXW E\ WKLV SURSRUWLRQ KDG GURSSHG WR SHUFHQW :RUOG %DQN F 7KH 1LQWK)LYH
Table 9.3 &URVVSURYLQFLDOYDULDWLRQLQHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPLQGLFDWRUV ² Financial system
Province %HLMLQJ 7LDQMLQ +HEHL 6KDQ[L ,QQHU0RQJROLD /LDRQLQJ -LOLQ +HLORQJMLDQJ 6KDQJKDL -LDQJVX =KHMLDQJ $QKXL )XMLDQ -LDQJ[L 6KDQGRQJ +HQDQ +XEHL +XQDQ *XDQJGRQJ *XDQJ[L +DLQDQ &KRQJTLQJ 6LFKXDQ *XL]KRX <XQQDQ 7LEHW 6KDDQ[L *DQVX 4LQJKDL 1LQJ[LD ;LQMLDQJ
Provincial per capita GDP (renminbi), 2000
Real average annual growth rate of provincial per capita GDP, 1991–2000 QD
Ratio of bank loans Total bank loans to bank as percentage of deposits, GDP, 2000 2000 QD QD
6RXUFHV3URYLQFLDOSHUFDSLWD*'3DQGJURZWKUDWHVFDOFXODWHGIURP66%YDULRXV\HDUVWDEOHV DQGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPGDWDFDOFXODWHGIURP3%&² Note $YHUDJHDQQXDOJURZWKUDWHRISURYLQFLDOSHUFDSLWD*'3KDVEHHQDGMXVWHGIRULQÁDWLRQ
Sehrt UHVHDUFKKDVIRFXVHGRQWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHQDWLRQDOEDQNLQJV\VWHPKDVEHHQ XVHG WR DGGUHVV VRPH RI WKHVH LQWHUSURYLQFLDO LQHTXDOLWLHV &KLQD·V ÀQDQFLDO V\VWHP LV GHHS$QG DV VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH LQ VRPH DUHDV WKH GHSRVLWV LQ WKH EDQNLQJV\VWHPDSSURDFKZHOORYHUSHUFHQWRI*'3DVH[SHFWHGGHSRVLWVDUH SDUWLFXODUO\KLJKLQWKRVHDUHDVWKDWKDYHJURZQIDVWHUDQGKDYHKLJKHUKRXVHKROG LQFRPHV VXFK DV *XDQJGRQJ 3URYLQFH ,I WKH EDQNLQJ V\VWHP ZHUH DOORFDWLQJ IXQGV DFFRUGLQJ WR FRPPHUFLDO FULWHULD RU JRYHUQPHQW DJHQFLHV ZHUH GLUHFWLQJ IXQGVWR´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHVZHVKRXOGDOVRVHHSURSRUWLRQDOO\JUHDWHUEDQNOHQGLQJ LQ WKHVH IDVWHUJURZLQJ ULFKHU DUHDV VLQFH UHWXUQV KHUH FDQ H[SHFWHG WR EH KLJKHU$QH[DPLQDWLRQRIORDQ²GHSRVLWUDWLRVKRZHYHUUHYHDOVWKDWWKLVLVQRWWKH FDVH,QIDFWDVGHPRQVWUDWHGLQ7DEOHWKHORDQ²GHSRVLWUDWLRH[FHHGVXQLW\LQD QXPEHURISURYLQFHVLQ&KLQD,QRWKHUZRUGVEDQNVWKHUHDUHPDNLQJPRUHORDQV WKDQWKH\DUHWDNLQJLQGHSRVLWV7KHORDQ²GHSRVLWUDWLRVUHÁHFWWKHIDFWWKDWIXQGV DUHEHLQJWUDQVIHUUHGWRWKHVHSURYLQFHVVRWKDWEDQNVWKHUHFDQFRYHUDOORIWKHLU OHQGLQJ3URYLQFHVZLWKKLJKORDQ²GHSRVLWUDWLRVLQFOXGH-LOLQDQG+HLORQJMLDQJ SURYLQFHVWKDWEHORQJWR&KLQD·V´UXVWEHOWµZKHUHWKHORFDOHFRQRPLHVDUHGRPLQDWHGE\RXWGDWHGVWDWHRZQHGLQGXVWU\
Conclusion 7KHHYLGHQFHSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVFKDSWHUVXJJHVWVWKDWWKH35&JRYHUQPHQWKDVXVHG WKHGRPHVWLFEDQNLQJV\VWHPWRUHGLVWULEXWHIXQGVDFURVVHFRQRPLFVHFWRUVDQG UHJLRQVQRWDFFRUGLQJWRHFRQRPLFSULRULWLHVEXWUDWKHULQUHVSRQVHWRFRQFHUQV DERXW XQHPSOR\PHQW DQG VRFLDO XQUHVW *RYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV VXSSRUW ´VXQVHWµ VHFWRUV LQ UHJLRQV WKDW DUH HFRQRPLFDOO\ GLVDGYDQWDJHG UDWKHU WKDQ ´VXQULVHµ LQGXVWULHVLQWKHIDVWHUGHYHORSLQJFRDVWDODUHDV $ QXPEHU RI FDYHDWV DUH KRZHYHU LQ RUGHU7KHVH LQFOXGH WKH IDFW WKDW WKH PHDVXUHRIOHQGLQJXVHGLVEDVHGRQDOORXWVWDQGLQJORDQVZKLFKFDQRYHUHVWLPDWH WKH H[WHQW RI WUXH ÀQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ LI D ODUJH VKDUH RI ORDQV LV RYHUGXH DQGQRQSHUIRUPLQJ%DGORDQVKDYHEHHQHVWLPDWHGWRDFFRXQWIRUDWOHDVW SHUFHQWRIRXWVWDQGLQJORDQVRIVWDWHEDQNVDQGFRXOGEHPXFKKLJKHUDVORDQV DUHRIWHQUROOHGRYHUDQGQRWFDWHJRUL]HGDVRYHUGXH+RZHYHUHYHQEDVLQJWKH DQDO\VLVRQRYHUGXHORDQVWKHUHVXOWVSURYLGHDWWKHYHU\OHDVWHYLGHQFHRIWKH H[WHQWWRZKLFKWKHRYHUGXHSUREOHPRYHUZKHOPVSRVVLEO\HIÀFLHQW QHZORDQ DOORFDWLRQ8QIRUWXQDWHO\WKHSRWHQWLDOO\PRUHPHDQLQJIXOPHDVXUHRIQHZDQQXDO OHQGLQJLVQRWDYDLODEOH $VHFRQGGLIÀFXOW\LVUHODWHGWRWKHHQGRJHQHLW\RIHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGÀQDQFLDOLQWHUPHGLDWLRQ$SRVLWLYHHIIHFWRIEDQNOHQGLQJRQJURZWKPD\OHDGWRDQ XSZDUGELDVLQDVVHVVLQJWKHHIIHFWRIHFRQRPLFIXQGDPHQWDOVRQOHQGLQJ7KLV SRVVLEOHELDVKRZHYHURQO\VWUHQJWKHQVWKHÀQGLQJVWKDWHFRQRPLFIXQGDPHQWDOV GRQRWDSSHDUWRLQÁXHQFHWKHOHYHORIEDQNOHQGLQJ )LQDOO\WKHDQDO\VLVLVOLPLWHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWV\VWHPDWLFVWDWLVWLFVIRUÀQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDWLRQ E\ LQIRUPDO ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV DUH QRW DYDLODEOH 7KH ÀJXUHV RQ EDQN OHQGLQJ GLVFXVVHG DERYH H[FOXGH VRPH ÀQDQFLDO LQWHUPHGLDULHV VXFK DV ÀQDQFH FRPSDQLHV UXUDO FRRSHUDWLYH IXQGV URWDWLQJ VDYLQJV DVVRFLDWLRQV
Supporting sunset sectors LQWHUHQWHUSULVH ÀQDQFH DQG RWKHU LQIRUPDO OHQGLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQV 1RQHWKHOHVV LQ D FRXQWU\ ZKHUH IRUPDO ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV FRQWURO VXFK D YDVW DPRXQW RI UHVRXUFHVZHVKRXOGH[SHFWWKHLUSHUIRUPDQFHWRKDYHODUJHDJJUHJDWHHIIHFWVRQ HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW 7KHODFNRIIRUPDOÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUUHIRUPVKDVLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUXQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH UROH RI GRPHVWLF SUHVVXUHV WKDW PD\ VORZ WKH SDFH RI PDUNHWRULHQWHG UHIRUP7KLVFKDSWHUGHPRQVWUDWHVKRZLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHVPD\EHPLWLJDWHG E\GRPHVWLFFRQVWUDLQWV,Q&KLQDÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQKDVSURFHHGHGDW DJODFLDOSDFH²SDUWLFXODUO\ZKHQFRPSDUHGZLWKUHIRUPVLQRWKHUVHFWRUVVXFK DV)',RUWUDGH²GXHWRSUHVVLQJSROLWLFDOGHPDQGVWRDGGUHVVFRQFHUQVUHODWHG WR LQGXVWULDO UHVWUXFWXULQJ DQG XQHPSOR\PHQW UHJLRQDO HTXDOLW\ DQG SROLWLFDO VWDELOLW\7KHXVHRIWKH35&EDQNLQJV\VWHPWRVXSSRUW´VXQVHWµVHFWRUVVHHPV GLDPHWULFDOO\ RSSRVHG QRW RQO\ WR DQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH PRGHOEXWDOVRWRWKHIXUWKHULQWHJUDWLRQRIWKHFRXQWU\LQWRZRUOGPDUNHWV %\WKHPHDVXUHVRIÀQDQFLDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQHVWDEOLVKHGLQWKHLQWURGXFWRU\FKDSWHUWRWKLVYROXPH&KLQDLVFHUWDLQO\WREHFDWHJRUL]HGD´ODWHOLEHUDOL]HUµ7KH JRYHUQPHQWKDVQRWUHGXFHGVWDWHRZQHUVKLSLQÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVLQDPHDQLQJIXOIDVKLRQDVEDQNOLFHQVLQJKDVUHPDLQHGKLJKO\UHVWULFWHG,QWHUHVWUDWHV XVHGE\WKHFRXQWU\·VFRPPHUFLDOEDQNVFRQWLQXHWREHVHWE\WKHFHQWUDOEDQN WKRXJKSROLFLHVDOORZLQJIRUDVPDOOEDQGZLGWKRIYDULDWLRQZHUHLQWURGXFHGLQWKH ODWHV7KH&KLQHVHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPFRQWLQXHVWREHGRPLQDWHGE\GHSRVLWRU\LQVWLWXWLRQVDVWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIRWKHUFDSLWDOPDUNHWVKDVEHHQGHOD\HG$V GHPRQVWUDWHGDERYHH[SOLFLWSROLF\ORDQVPDNHXSDVLJQLÀFDQWSURSRUWLRQRIDOO OHQGLQJ,QDGGLWLRQWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUKDVUHPDLQHGUHPDUNDEO\LQVXODWHGDQG SURWHFWHGIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOSUHVVXUHV$V&KLQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVOLNHWRSRLQWRXW WKLVLQVXODWLRQIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFLDOPDUNHWVDLGHG&KLQDGXULQJWKH(DVW $VLDQÀQDQFLDOFULVLVE\DYRLGLQJGUDPDWLFFXUUHQF\GHYDOXDWLRQVDQGRUWXUPRLO DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOFROODSVHRIGRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV)LQDQFLDO VHFWRU UHIRUPV ZHUH D PDMRU VWLFNLQJ SRLQW GXULQJ QHJRWLDWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH 35&·VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH:72,QWKHHQG&KLQDDJUHHGWRDJUDGXDOSKDVHGLQ RSHQLQJ RI WKH ÀQDQFLDO VHUYLFHV LQGXVWU\ WR FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP DEURDG )RUHLJQ EDQNV ZLOO EH SHUPLWWHG WR FRQGXFW GRPHVWLF FXUUHQF\ EXVLQHVV RQO\ ÀYH \HDUV DIWHU&KLQD·VDFFHVVLRQWRWKH:72 7KH UHOXFWDQFH WR SHUPLW XQFRQVWUDLQHG IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO WR HQWHU &KLQD VWHPV IURP FRQFHUQV DERXW WKH VWDELOLW\ RI WKH GRPHVWLF EDQNLQJ \VWHP $V ORQJ DV KRXVHKROG GHSRVLWV DUH ÀQDQFLQJ ODUJHVFDOH ZHOIDUH SURJUDPV LW LV GLIÀFXOW WR RSHQ GRPHVWLF EDQNLQJ WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSHWLWLRQ 0DQ\ SROLF\PDNHUV IHDU WKDWXQUHVWULFWHGIRUHLJQEDQNDFFHVVZRXOGOXUHGHSRVLWRUVDZD\IURPWKH&KLQHVH EDQNV %HWWHU VHUYLFH DQG VXSHULRU ÀQDQFLDO UDWLQJV PLJKW FUHDWH SUHVVXUHV WKDW ZRXOGUHVXOWLQDUXQRQWKH&KLQHVHEDQNLQJV\VWHP 7KLVKDVOHGWRDQLQFRQJUXRXVSLFWXUHRILQWHUQDWLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQ2QWKHRQH KDQG WKH FRXQWU\ LV WRGD\ DPRQJ WKH ODUJHVW UHFLSLHQWV RI )', LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJZRUOGLVFORVHO\LQWHJUDWHGLQWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOH[SRUWPDUNHWVDQGLVRQHRI WKH IDVWHVW JURZLQJ HFRQRPLHV LQ WKH ZRUOG \HW DW WKH VDPH WLPH WKH 35&·V EDQNLQJV\VWHPUHPDLQVGRPLQDWHGE\DVWDWHRZQHGEDQNVORDQDOORFDWLRQGRHV
Sehrt QRW IROORZ PDUNHW SULQFLSOHV DQG FDSLWDO PDUNHWV DUH XQGHUGHYHORSHG 7KLV LV SDUWLFXODUO\SX]]OLQJEHFDXVHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUUHIRUPKDVEHHQLGHQWLÀHGE\PDQ\ H[SHUWVDVRQHRIWKHFUXFLDOFRPSRQHQWVRIODVWLQJPDUNHWRULHQWHGUHIRUPV ,QRUGHUWRH[SODLQWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIWKH´UHDOµHFRQRP\FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHÀ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ÀQDQFLDO V\VWHPUHPDLQVXQGHUDPRUHUHVWULFWLYHUHJLPH
Notes -RKQ=\VPDQ GHVFULEHGWKLVPRGHOIRU-DSDQDVZHOODV)UDQFH &RPSDUHFRQWULEXWLRQVWR+DJJDUGet al +DJJDUGDQG/HH DQG/RULDX[ et al )RUDGLVFXVVLRQRI-DSDQDVD´EDQNHUV·NLQJGRPµRIVWDWHGLUHFWHGFUHGLWDOORFDWLRQ DQGDGPLQLVWHUHGLQWHUHVWUDWHVVHH&DOGHU )RUPRUHUHFHQWGLVFXVVLRQV RIWKHG\QDPLFVRIHFRQRPLFDQGÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUUHIRUPLQ-DSDQVHHIRUH[DPSOH *ULPHV /DXUHQFH DQG 6DRUL .DWDGD·V FKDSWHU LQ WKLV YROXPH )RU DQ RYHUYLHZ RI FUHGLW SROLFLHV WKDW FKDQQHOHG ORDQV WR VWDWHIDYRUHG HQWHUSULVH FRQJORPHUDWHVLQ.RUHDVHH:RR &KRL RU.DQJ 2Q7DLZDQ VHH7-&KHQJ ([SOLFLWFRPSDULVRQVRIWKHÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUSROLFLHVLQWKHVH WKUHHFRXQWULHVDUHLQFOXGHGLQ3DWULFNDQG3DUN DVZHOODV+-3DUN 2WKHUIDFWRUVPRVWLPSRUWDQWO\IDYRUDEOHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVIRUHLJQDLGODUJH H[SRUWPDUNHWVHWF KDYHSUHVXPDEO\DOVRSOD\HGDFUXFLDOUROHLQHQVXULQJWKHLQLWLDO VXFFHVVRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH ,QFRQWUDVWRQHFRXOGDUJXHWKDWGXULQJLQWKHSUHSHULRGDOOOHQGLQJZDVGLUHFWHG WR´VXQULVHµVHFWRUVGHHPHGHVVHQWLDOWRQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVLQFHDOOORDQ GHFLVLRQVZHUHPDGHEDVHGRQWKHSUHURJDWLYHVHVWDEOLVKHGE\WKHQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLF SODQWKDWZDVIRUPXODWHGE\WKHVRFLDOLVWSODQQLQJEXUHDXFUDF\7KHSODQQHGHFRQRP\ KRZHYHU GLG QRW UHO\ WR D VXEVWDQWLDO H[WHQW RQ WKH EDQNLQJ V\VWHP 7KH VRFLDOLVW PRQREDQNZDVSULPDULO\XVHGWRÀQDQFHVRFDOOHGZRUNLQJFDSLWDOVKRUWWHUP ORDQV ZKHUHDVWKHYDVWPDMRULW\RIVWDWHÀQDQFLQJZDVGLUHFWHGWKURXJKWKHÀVFDOV\VWHP 7KHWD[WRORDQUHIRUPVbo gai dai RIWKHHDUO\VLQIDFWnewlyHVWDEOLVKHGWKH EDQNLQJV\VWHPDVWKHPDLQHOHPHQWRIVWDWHRZQHGHQWHUSULVHÀQDQFLQJ &DOFXODWHGIURP3%&² 35&KRXVHKROGVRXWSDFHWKHVDYLQJVUDWHVRIWKHWKULIW\(DVW$VLDQ1,&V,Q -DSDQHVHKRXVHKROGVKHOGGHSRVLWVHTXLYDOHQWWRSHUFHQWRI*'3KRXVHKROGVDYLQJV LQ7KDLODQGDPRXQWHGWRSHUFHQWLQ6RXWK.RUHDWRSHUFHQWDQGLQ7DLZDQWR SHUFHQW'XULQJWKHVDPH\HDULQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKHKRXVHKROGVDYLQJVUDWHVWRRG DWURXJKO\SHUFHQW&URVVQDWLRQDOFRPSDULVRQVRIWKHVHUDWHVFDQSURYLGHRQO\D URXJKEDVLVIRUDQDO\VLVVLQFHWKHÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPVRIWKHVHFRXQWULHVDQGWKXVWKH RSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUVDYHUVWRLQYHVWWKHLUPRQH\LQDOWHUQDWLYHDVVHWVUHDOHVWDWHVWRFN ERQGVHWF YDU\´$)XQQ\/RRNLQJ7LJHUµThe Economist$XJXVWSS ²
Supporting sunset sectors ,Q&KLQD·VLQLWLDOVHWRIÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPVHVWDEOLVKHGDVHWRIVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNV ZKLFKWRRNRYHUWKHOHQGLQJUHVSRQVLELOLWLHVRIWKHVRFLDOLVWPRQREDQNWKH3HRSOH·V %DQN RI &KLQD 3%& 7KH IRXU VSHFLDOL]HG EDQNV WKH ,QGXVWULDO DQG &RPPHUFLDO %DQNRI&KLQD,&%& WKH$JULFXOWXUDO%DQNRI&KLQD$%& WKH&KLQD&RQVWUXFWLRQ %DQN&&% DQGWKH%DQNRI&KLQD%2& GRPLQDWHGWKHGRPHVWLFÀQDQFLDOPDUNHW WKURXJKRXW WKH V ,Q WKH\ VWLOO DFFRXQWHG IRU SHUFHQW RI DOO GHSRVLWV DQGSHUFHQWRIORDQV'XULQJWKHFRXUVHRIWKHVWKHLUVKDUHVKDYHJUDGXDOO\ GHFOLQHG,QWKHIRXUVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNVDWWUDFWHGVWLOOURXJKO\SHUFHQWRIWRWDO GHSRVLWVDQGPDGHSHUFHQWRIDOOORDQV&DOFXODWHGIURP3%& ,Q WKH GLUHFWRUV RI WKUHH RI WKH IRXU VSHFLDOL]HG EDQNV ZHUH UHSODFHG ZLWK \RXQJHU SHUVRQQHO ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKHUH ZDV D ODUJHVFDOH UHRUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ WKH KHDGTXDUWHUVRIWKHFHQWUDOEDQN ,QÁDWLRQ ZKLFK KDG UHDFKHG SHUFHQW LQ ZDV UHGXFHG WR SHUFHQW LQ GURSSLQJ WR SHUFHQW LQ DQG SHUFHQW LQ 7KH QHZ FRQWUROV RQWKHEDQNLQJV\VWHPDUHOLNHO\WRKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHGHÁDWLRQDU\VLWXDWLRQLQ WKHODWHV7KHUHWDLOSULFHLQGH[FRQWUDFWHGEHWZHHQDQGSHUFHQWHDFK\HDU EHWZHHQDQG&DOFXODWHGIURP3%& DQG66% 6LQFHWKHODWHVWKHUHKDVEHHQVRPHGLYHUVLÀFDWLRQLQÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV$OO RIWKHVHLQVWLWXWLRQVKRZHYHUDUHPDMRULW\RZQHGE\WKHVWDWHRUDIÀOLDWHGRUJDQV$ QXPEHURIEDQNVZLWKQDWLRQZLGHRSHUDWLRQVVXFKDVWKH%DQNRI&RPPXQLFDWLRQV %2&20 RUWKH&KLQD,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UXVWDQG,QYHVWPHQW&RPSDQ\&,7,& DQG UHJLRQDO FRPPHUFLDO EDQNV VXFK DV *XDQJGRQJ 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN DUH FORVHO\ DIÀOLDWHG ZLWK SURYLQFLDO JRYHUQPHQWV FLW\ FRPPHUFLDO EDQNV DUH UXQ E\ WKH ORFDO PXQLFLSDOJRYHUQPHQWUXUDOFUHGLWFRRSHUDWLYHVZKLFKXQWLOUHFHQWO\VHUYHGDVWKH ORZHVWEUDQFKHVRIWKH$%&DUHGLUHFWO\DGPLQLVWHUHGE\WKHFHQWUDOEDQN0LQVKHQJ %DQNVRPHWLPHVKDLOHGDV´&KLQD·VÀUVWSULYDWHEDQNµLVFRQWUROOHGE\WKH$OO&KLQD )HGHUDWLRQ RI ,QGXVWU\ DQG &RPPHUFH 0RUH UHFHQWO\ VHYHUDO VPDOOHU ORFDO EDQNV KDYHEHHQSHUPLWWHGWRVHOOVPDOORZQHUVKLSVWDNHVWRIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUV7KH:RUOG %DQN·V ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )LQDQFH &RUSRUDWLRQ ,)& IRU LQVWDQFH KDV HVWDEOLVKHG LWVHOI DVDVWUDWHJLFVWDNHKROGHULQQXPHURXVFLW\FRPPHUFLDOEDQNVLQFOXGLQJWKH%DQNRI 6KDQJKDL1DQMLQJ&LW\&RPPHUFLDO%DQNDQG;L·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·V 3XGRQJVSHFLDOHFRQRPLF]RQH6(= DVZHOODVLQ6KHQ]KHQ,QLWVQHJRWLDWLRQVRYHU :RUOG 7UDGH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ :72 PHPEHUVKLS LQ WKH 35& JUDQWHG QHZ DFFHVVWRIRUHLJQÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV/RFDOFXUUHQF\EDQNLQJZLOOEHSHUPLWWHGLQ IRXUFLWLHVLQWKHÀUVW\HDUXSRQDFFHVVLRQIRXUDGGLWLRQDOFLWLHVZLOOEHSHUPLWWHGHDFK \HDUWKHUHDIWHUDQGQDWLRQZLGHDFFHVVZLOOEHJUDQWHGÀYH\HDUVDIWHUDFFHVVLRQ86 7UDGH5HSUHVHQWDWLYH:72 7KHVWDWHGDLPRIWKHWKUHHSROLF\EDQNVHVWDEOLVKHGZDVWRWDNHRYHUDOOJRYHUQPHQW SROLF\OHQGLQJIURPWKHVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNV+RZHYHUWKHEDQNV²WKH6WDWH'HYHORSPHQW %DQN6'% WKH,PSRUW²([SRUW%DQN,(% DQGWKH$JULFXOWXUDO'HYHORSPHQW%DQN RI &KLQD $'%& ² GR QRW SURYLGH ZRUNLQJ FDSLWDO ORDQV WR 62(V FUHGLW WKDW LV UHJDUGHGE\PDQ\REVHUYHUVDVDFRQWLQXHGIRUPRISROLF\OHQGLQJIURPWKHVXSSRVHGO\ FRPPHUFLDOL]HGVSHFLDOL]HGEDQNV,QVWHDGWKHSROLF\EDQNVÀQDQFHQHZSURMHFWVWKDW DUHSROLF\SULRULWLHVRIWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQW7KH6'%SULPDULO\SURYLGHVÀQDQFLQJ IRUFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQYHVWPHQWVWKH(,%ÀQDQFHVH[SRUWFUHGLWDQG
Sehrt
$'%&ORDQVDUHXVHGIRUVWDWHJUDLQSURFXUHPHQWDQGRWKHUOHQGLQJWRWKHDJULFXOWXUDO VHFWRU 0RVWRIWKLVFUHGLWZDVORDQVH[WHQGHGE\WKH6'%SHUFHQWRIWRWDOFUHGLW DQGWKH $'%&SHUFHQWRIWRWDOFUHGLW 7KH,(%ZKLFKH[LVWVPDLQO\WRSURYLGHH[SRUW FUHGLWWRHQWHUSULVHVLQWKHVKLSEXLOGLQJPDFKLQHU\DQGHOHFWURQLFVLQGXVWULHVKDVD PRUHOLPLWHGUROHDQGDFFRXQWHGIRURQO\SHUFHQWRIWRWDOFUHGLWLQ&DOFXODWHG IURPWKHDQQXDOUHSRUWVRIWKHSROLF\EDQNVDQG3%& &DOFXODWHGIURP3%&DQQXDOUHSRUWVDQG3%&YDULRXV\HDUV &DOFXODWHGIURP66%YDULRXV\HDUV )RU WKH GLIÀFXOWLHV LQ HVWLPDWLQJ WKH H[DFW QXPEHU RI XQHPSOR\HG VHH 6ROLQJHU E $FFRUGLQJWR=KX·VUHSRUWSHUFDSLWDGLVSRVDEOHLQFRPHIRUXUEDQUHVLGHQWVLQFUHDVHG E\ SHUFHQW ZKHUHDV SHU FDSLWD QHW LQFRPH IRU IDUPHUV JUHZ E\ RQO\ SHUFHQW ´&KLQHVH3UHPLHU·V*RYHUQPHQW:RUN5HSRUWDW1DWLRQDO3HRSOH·V&RQJUHVVµBBC Monitoring – International Reports 0DUFK )RU D PRUH GHWDLOHG GLVFXVVLRQ RI WKH SUREOHPV ZLWK WKH JUDLQ SXUFKDVLQJ V\VWHP DQGUHIRUPDWWHPSWVVHH*:HL $3DUNDQG5R]HOOH DQG5R]HOOHet al 7KHUHDUHDOVRUHSRUWVRIZLGHVSUHDGDEXVHRIWKHJUDLQSXUFKDVHIXQGV $VHULHVRIDXGLWVLQWKHODWHVUHYHDOHGGLYHUVLRQRIWKHVHIXQGVLQWRUHDOHVWDWH LQYHVWPHQWVSXUFKDVHRIFDUVDQGRWKHUFRQVXPHUGXUDEOHVH[SHQVLYHRYHUVWDIÀQJ DQGFRUUXSWLRQ 7KLV ÀJXUH UHIHUV WR FRPELQHG FHQWUDO DQG ORFDO JRYHUQPHQW EXGJHW H[SHQGLWXUHV &DOFXODWHGIURP0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH02) YDULRXV\HDUV 2WKHUVWXGLHVRILQWHUSURYLQFLDOGLVSDULWLHVLQFOXGH'
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations Marie Anchordoguy
7KHIXQGDPHQWDODUJXPHQWRIWKLVFKDSWHULVWKDWWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWH·VWHFKQRORJ\ SROLFLHV KDYH SOD\HG D FULWLFDO UROH LQ PDNLQJ LW WKH ZRUOG·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·VKLJKWHFK LQGXVWULHV LQ WKH V 8QGHU D QHZ VHW RI FRQGLWLRQV PDQ\ RI WKH GRPHVWLF LQVWLWXWLRQV WKDW FRQWULEXWHG WR EXLOGLQJ XS KLJKWHFK LQGXVWULHV KLQGHUHG WKH DELOLW\RIWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHDQGFRUSRUDWLRQVWRDGDSWWRDQHQYLURQPHQWRIUDSLG JOREDOWHFKQRORJLFDOFKDQJH2EVROHWHLQVWLWXWLRQVEHFDPHGLIÀFXOWWRGLVPDQWOH 7KHVWDWHXQGHUKHDY\JOREDOSUHVVXUHWRRSHQXSVWDUWHGWROLEHUDOL]HEXWRQO\ UHOXFWDQWO\ 2WKHUVDOVRHPSKDVL]HWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHDVDUHOXFWDQWODWHOLEHUDOL]HULQWKH UHDOPRIWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\,DQ*RZ² DQG6WHSKHQ9RJHO VKRZKRZ´GHUHJXODWLRQµRIWKHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQGXVWU\LQWKHVZDV UHDOO\´UHUHJXODWLRQµ5RJHU1ROODQG)UDQFHV5RVHQEOXWK SRLQWRXWWKH PDQDJHGQDWXUHRIWKHGHFLVLRQWRSDUWLDOO\SULYDWL]H177LQDQGVHOHFWLYHO\ FKRRVHQHZHQWUDQWV$QDO\]LQJWKHVHPLFRQGXFWRULQGXVWU\$QFKRUGRJX\ ² DQG,QRXH ÀQGWKDWZKLOHWKHVWDWH·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
Anchordoguy ÀQDQFLDODLGLQWKHIRUPRIVXEVLGLHVWD[EHQHÀWVDQGORDQVFRRSHUDWLYHUHVHDUFK DQGGHYHORSPHQW5 ' SURMHFWVFROODERUDWLRQZLWKQDWLRQDOODERUDWRULHVDQG YDULRXV LQVWLWXWLRQDO DUUDQJHPHQWV VXFK DV D QDWLRQDOL]HG WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV FRPSDQ\DQGDVWDWHVSRQVRUHGFRPSXWHUUHQWDOFRPSDQ\WKDWKDYHKHDY\UHJXODWRU\DQGÀQDQFLDOLPSDFWRQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVSHFLÀFKLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHV 6HFRQGLQNHHSLQJZLWKWKLVYROXPH·VWKHPHVWRZKDWGHJUHHKDYHWKHVHLQGXVWULHVEHHQOLEHUDOL]HGDQGZKDWIDFWRUVKDYHSURPRWHGRUKLQGHUHGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ" 7KH UHPDLQGHU RI WKH FKDSWHU LV GLYLGHG LQWR ÀYH VHFWLRQV 7KH ÀUVW VHFWLRQ GLVFXVVHV WKH JHQHUDO FRQGLWLRQV XQGHU ZKLFK WHFKQRORJ\ SROLFLHV KDYH EHHQ HIIHFWLYHDQGLQHIIHFWLYHLQKLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHVLQ-DSDQ(YDOXDWLQJFRQGLWLRQVDW WKHOHYHORIWKHVWDWHFRUSRUDWLRQDQGVRFLHW\ZHÀQGVHYHUDOFRQGLWLRQVFULWLFDO WRXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIVWDWHWHFKQRORJ\SROLFLHV7KHVHLQFOXGHD VWURQJFRRUGLQDWHGDQGFHQWUDOL]HGVWDWHWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWDFRQVHQVXVDPRQJVWDWHDFWRUVRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDQLQGXVWU\WRWKHQDWLRQ·VHFRQRPLFZHOOEHLQJWKHQDWXUHRIWKHWHFKQRORJ\DQGWKHWHFKQRORJLFDOWUDMHFWRU\RI DJLYHQLQGXVWU\ZKHWKHUSROLFLHVZHUHPDUNHWFRQIRUPLQJ²ZKHWKHUWKH\KHOSHG WKHÀ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ÀUPVFDWFKXSZLWKWKH:HVWQHHGHGWREHRYHUKDXOHGDQGWKDWWKLVHQWDLOHGPRYLQJWRZDUGJUHDWHUUHOLDQFHRQPDUNHWIRUFHVPXFKLQOLQHZLWKWKHJOREDOWKUXVW WRZDUGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDVDZKROH$QFKRUGRJX\ 7RJDXJHKRZPXFKWKHVH LQGXVWULHVKDYHOLEHUDOL]HG,XVHRSHUDWLRQDOLQGLFDWRUVDVLGHQWLÀHGE\WKHHGLWRUV LQ 7DEOH VXFK DV UHGXFLQJ HPSKDVLV RQ LQGLJHQL]LQJ WHFKQRORJ\ UHGXFLQJ JRYHUQPHQWSURFXUHPHQWLQKLJKWHFKVHFWRUVDOORZLQJIRUHLJQÀUPVWRSURGXFH LQ-DSDQDQGDOORZLQJMRLQWYHQWXUHVDQGZKROO\RZQHGVXEVLGLDULHV 7KHVH VHFWLRQV ÀQG WKDW GHVSLWH JURZLQJ WDON RI JUHDWHU UHOLDQFH RQ PDUNHW
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations IRUFHVWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHUHPDLQVDUHOXFWDQWOLEHUDOL]HUDQGWKXVKDVEHHQPXFK ODWHUWROLEHUDOL]HWKDQ6RXWK.RUHDDQG7DLZDQGLGDWVLPLODUVWDJHVRIGHYHORSPHQW 0RYHPHQW WRZDUG D PRUH PDUNHWEDVHG V\VWHP KDV EHHQ DG KRF LQFRQVLVWHQW DQG LQFUHPHQWDO LPSDFWHG E\ EXUHDXFUDWLF LQÀJKWLQJ D GHFOLQH LQ WKH EXUHDXFUDF\·VOHJLWLPDF\VLPSOHYHVWHGLQWHUHVWVWUXJJOHVRYHUVFDUFHUHVRXUFHV FRUSRUDWHORFNLQWRLQFRPSDWLEOHVRIWZDUHVWDQGDUGVDQGDQREVROHWHVHWRIRUJDQL]DWLRQDOFDSDFLWLHVDQGWKHULVHRIGLYHUVHGRPHVWLFFRQVWLWXHQWVVNLOOIXOO\XVLQJ IRUHLJQSUHVVXUHWRIRUFHWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHWROLEHUDOL]H 7KHÀQDOVHFWLRQVXPPDUL]HVWKHFRUHDUJXPHQWVDQGGLVFXVVHVWKHGLUHFWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\SROLFLHVDQGOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSROLFLHVDUHOLNHO\WRWDNHLQWKHIXWXUH
Conditions for effective industrial policies %HIRUH DQDO\]LQJ WKH WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV FRPSXWHU KDUGZDUH DQG FRPSXWHU VRIWZDUH LQGXVWULHV LQ GHWDLO, ZLOO ÀUVW VXPPDUL]HVRPH RI WKH NH\ FRQGLWLRQV WKDWKHOSH[SODLQWKHUHODWLYHVXFFHVVRIVWDWHSROLFLHVLQWKHVDQGVDQG WKHUHODWLYHLQHIIHFWLYHQHVVVWDUWLQJLQWKHVZKHQNH\FRQGLWLRQVFKDQJHG 7KHVH FRQGLWLRQV IDOO LQWR DW OHDVW WKUHH FDWHJRULHV ² WKRVH UHODWHG WR WKH VWDWH FRUSRUDWLRQVDQGVRFLHW\ $UHODWLYHO\VWURQJDQGVPDUWVWDWHZRUNLQJIRUWKHPRVWSDUWLQWKHQDWLRQDO LQWHUHVWZDVNH\DQGKDVEHHQDFHQWUDOIRFXVRIVWXGLHVRI-DSDQHVHLQGXVWULDO SROLF\ -DSDQ·V VWDWH KDG OHJLWLPDF\ DQG VWDELOLW\ DQG LQFOXGHG VRSKLVWLFDWHG LQVWLWXWLRQVIRUPDQDJLQJWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\LQDKLJKO\FHQWUDOL]HGFRRUGLQDWHG IDVKLRQ-DSDQHVHEXUHDXFUDWVGHHPHGOHJLWLPDWHODUJHO\EHFDXVHRIWKHLUUHODWLYH VXFFHVVVLQFHWKH0HLMLSHULRGKDGJUHDWGLVFUHWLRQDQGZHUHWUXVWHG 6HYHUDO DVSHFWV RI VWDWH SROLFLHV ZHUH NH\ 7KH -DSDQHVH VWDWH SURWHFWHG WKH GRPHVWLFPDUNHWORQJHQRXJKWRDOORZGRPHVWLFÀUPVWREXLOGXSWKHDELOLW\WR DEVRUEIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\DQGLPSURYHXSRQLW7KHVWDWHGLGQRWH[FOXGHIRUHLJQ FRPSHWLWLRQEXWOLPLWHGLWVKDUSO\,WXVHGIRUHLJQFRPSHWLWLRQDVDWKUHDWDJDLQVW GRPHVWLFPDNHUVDQGDFWLYHO\HQFRXUDJHGYLJRURXVGRPHVWLFFRPSHWLWLRQWRIRUFH ÀUPVWRLPSURYHWKHLUWHFKQRORJ\DQGFXWWKHLUFRVWVRYHUWKHORQJWHUPLQRUGHU WR VXUYLYH 3ROLFLHV SURYLGHG D VDIH KDYHQ JLYLQJ GRPHVWLF ÀUPV DQG ZRUNHUV WKHQHFHVVDU\WLPHWREXLOGXSVNLOOVDQGOHDUQDQGDGDSWIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\7KH -DSDQHVHVWDWHOLPLWHGDQGSXWVWULQJVRQIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWDVGHVFULEHGLQWKH 6ROLVFKDSWHUKHUHLQIRUFLQJIRUHLJQÀUPVLQWRMRLQWYHQWXUHVOLPLWLQJZKDWDQG KRZPXFKWKH\FRXOGSURGXFHLQ-DSDQDQGKRZPXFKSURÀWWKH\FRXOGUHSDWULDWH $UHODWLYHO\ODUJHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWLQZKLFKWRJDLQHFRQRPLHVRIVFDOHZDV HVVHQWLDO0DFURHFRQRPLFSROLFLHVWKDWHQFRXUDJHGVDYLQJVDQGLQYHVWPHQWDQG GLVFRXUDJHGFRQVXPSWLRQHQDEOHG-DSDQWRUHPDLQLQGHSHQGHQWRIIRUHLJQORDQV ZKLOHVWLOOLQYHVWLQJKHDYLO\LQVWUDWHJLFLQGXVWULHVDQGDQDWLRQDOLQQRYDWLRQV\VWHP²HGXFDWLRQQDWLRQDOODERUDWRULHVDQGWKHOLNH7KHVWDWH·VHDUO\DQGKHDY\ LQYHVWPHQWLQDVRSKLVWLFDWHGHGXFDWLRQV\VWHPDQGQDWLRQDOODERUDWRULHVZDVDOVR HVVHQWLDO WR EXLOGLQJ WKH KXPDQ UHVRXUFHV QHFHVVDU\ WR EHFRPH D JOREDO SOD\HU LQKLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHV%\WDUJHWLQJWKHHOHFWURQLFVVHFWRUIURPWKHERWWRPXS
Anchordoguy VXSSRUWLQJVLPSOHSDUWVPDNHUVDQGEDVLFWUDLQLQJWKHVWDWHKHOSHGFUHDWHDVWURQJ IRXQGDWLRQIRUDQDGYDQFHGHOHFWURQLFVVHFWRU $EURDGVRFLHWDOFRQVHQVXVWRDOORZWKHEXUHDXFUDF\WRGHFLGHZKDWLQGXVWULHV WRWDUJHWZDVDOVRQHFHVVDU\8SXQWLOWKHPLGVWKHUHZDVGHHSUHVSHFWIRU WKHEXUHDXFUDF\GXHWRLWVNQRZOHGJHH[SHULHQFHDQGDELOLW\WRGHOLYHUWKHJRRGV LQ WKH SDVW$ VWURQJ FRQVHQVXV DPRQJ VWDWH DFWRUV DQG WKH ÀUPV UHJDUGLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFHRIDJLYHQLQGXVWU\IRUWKHQDWLRQ·VORQJWHUPHFRQRPLFKHDOWKZDV DOVRFULWLFDO$VORQJDV0,7,0LQLVWU\RI,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG,QGXVWU\ DQG 177 1LSSRQ 7HOHJUDSK DQG 7HOHSKRQH SROLFLHV ZHUH KHOSLQJ -DSDQHVH ÀUPV FRXQWHUIRUHLJQÀUPVWKH\ZHUHJLYHQEURDGOHHZD\LQVWUXFWXULQJWKHLUSROLFLHV DQG JRDOV DQG JXLGLQJ VFDUFH UHVRXUFHV WR VSHFLÀF LQGXVWULHV WKURXJK D KLJKO\ FHQWUDOL]HGVWDWHJXLGHGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHP:LWKRXWSROLWLFDODQGVRFLDOVWDELOLW\ WKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRI-DSDQ·VWHFKQRORJ\SROLFLHVZRXOGKDYHEHHQOLPLWHG-DSDQ HPEUDFHGDGLIIHUHQWW\SHRIFDSLWDOLVPRQHWKDWHQFRXUDJHGHFRQRPLFJURZWK EXWSUHYHQWHGELJZLQQHUVDQGORVHUV7KXVGUDPDWLFHFRQRPLFJURZWKUDWHVZHUH FRXSOHG ZLWK UHPDUNDEO\HTXLWDEOHZDJH DQG LQFRPHUDWHV7KLV FRQWULEXWHGWR JHWWLQJWKHDYHUDJHSHUVRQWREX\LQWRWKHVWDWH·VGHYHORSPHQWDOSURMHFW ,QDGGLWLRQFORVHJRYHUQPHQW²EXVLQHVVUHODWLRQVDQGWKHH[LVWHQFHRIDNQRZOHGJHDEOH FRUSRUDWH FODVV ZLOOLQJ WR LQYHVW LQ FRUH LQGXVWULHV IRU WKH ORQJ WHUP UDWKHUWKDQUHTXLULQJVKRUWWHUPUHWXUQVRQLQYHVWPHQWZDVDOVRFULWLFDO$V\VWHP RIFKHFNVDQGEDODQFHVUHVXOWLQJIURPDVWURQJVWDWHDQGDQDFWLYHH[SHULHQFHG SULYDWH VHFWRU OHG WR SROLFLHV WKDW ZHUH RQ WKH ZKROH PDUNHW FRQIRUPLQJ7KH -DSDQHVHVWDWH·VIDYRULWLVPWRZDUGDQGSURPRWLRQRIODUJHYHUWLFDOO\LQWHJUDWHG ÀUPVWKDWZHUHPHPEHUVRILQGXVWULDOJURXSVDQGWKHUHE\EXIIHUHGIURPWKHJDOHV RIFUHDWLYHGHVWUXFWLRQZHUHNH\WRWKHVXFFHVVRILQGXVWULHVZLWKKLJKEDUULHUVWR HQWU\VXFKDVKDUGZDUHDQGWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV)LUPVLQWKHVHVHFWRUVZHUHJRRG DW DEVRUELQJ IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJ\ OHDUQLQJ TXLFNO\ DQG DGYDQFLQJ PHWKRGLFDOO\ WKURXJKDSURFHVVRILQFUHPHQWDOLQQRYDWLRQ8QWLOWKHODWHVWKHWHFKQRORJLFDOWUDMHFWRU\LQWKHVHLQGXVWULHVZDVFOHDUDQGIRUHLJQSURGXFWVFRXOGOHJDOO\EH UHYHUVHHQJLQHHUHG-DSDQHVHÀUPVFRXOGFRPSHWHIDYRUDEO\RQSULFHDQGTXDOLW\ 7KHÀUPV·FRUSRUDWHJRYHUQDQFHSURFHGXUHVZKLFKSURWHFWHGPDQDJHPHQWIURP XQIULHQGO\ VKDUHKROGHU GHPDQGV RXWVLGH H\HV DQG WDNHRYHUV E\ IRUHLJQ ÀUPV WRJHWKHUZLWKWKHYLHZRIFRUSRUDWLRQVDVSURYLGHUVRIVWDEOHHPSOR\PHQWUDWKHU WKDQSURGXFHUVRISURÀWHQDEOHGWKHVHÀUPVWRVXUYLYHGHVSLWHYHU\ORZUHWXUQVRQ LQYHVWPHQW3URPRWLQJWKHVDPHVHWRIÀUPVDVWKHQDWLRQ·VWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV FRPSXWHUKDUGZDUHVRIWZDUHDQGVHPLFRQGXFWRUÀUPVDOVRJDYHWKHVWDWHPRUH EDQJIRULWVEXFN -DSDQ·V KLJKWHFK LQGXVWULHV DQG VWDWH SROLFLHV WRZDUG WKHP ZHUH DOVR WKH EHQHÀFLDULHVRIDQH[WUHPHO\IDYRUDEOHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWDV3HPSHODQG 3HNNDQHQKLJKOLJKWLQWKHLUFKDSWHUV7KH86JRYHUQPHQWEXV\ZLWK&ROG:DU FRQFHUQVORRNHGWKHRWKHUZD\DWFOHDULQIULQJHPHQWVRI86SDWHQWDQGFRS\ULJKW ODZVDVZHOODVDZLGHDUUD\RIWDULIIDQGQRQWDULIIEDUULHUV17%V $QFKRUGRJX\ 7KH-XVWLFH'HSDUWPHQW·VORQJWHUPLQYHVWLJDWLRQRI,%0OHDGLQJWRWKH JLDQWXQEXQGOLQJLWVVRIWZDUHDQGKDUGZDUHLQRSHQHGXSDZRUOGRIRSSRUWXQLW\IRU-DSDQ·VKDUGZDUHPDNHUVDQGDOORZHGWKHVWDWHDQGWKHPDNHUVWRIRFXV RQKDUGZDUH:LWKRXWHDV\DFFHVVWRIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\DQGIRUHLJQPDUNHWVWKH
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations LQGXVWULHVFRXOGQRWKDYHHPHUJHG$IDYRUDEOHJOREDOHQYLURQPHQWZDVQHFHVVDU\ EXW QRW VXIÀ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·V HFRQRPLF VXFFHVV DOVR DIIHFWHG LWV HQYLURQPHQW 6XIIHULQJ JURZLQJ GHÀFLWVZLWK-DSDQWKH86JRYHUQPHQWVWDUWHGFRPSODLQLQJDERXW-DSDQ·VVWUDWHJLFLQGXVWULDODQGWUDGHSROLFLHVLQWKHODWHVDQGHDUO\V-DSDQ·VJUHDWHU ZHLJKWLQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\OHGWRDULVHLQWKH\HQ·VYDOXHPRVWVLJQLÀFDQWO\ DIWHUWKH3OD]D$FFRUGZKHQWKH\HQURVHIURPDERXWWR\HQWRWKH GROODUZLWKLQDRQHWRWZR\HDUSHULRG7KHVXFFHVVRILWVWHFKQRORJLFDOSROLFLHV WRJHWKHUZLWKWKHVWURQJ\HQDOVROHGWRDQRXWÁRZRI-DSDQHVHWHFKQRORJ\WRRWKHU ODWHGHYHORSHUVVXFKDV7DLZDQDQG6RXWK.RUHDZKLFKZHUHDOUHDG\DVVLGXRXVO\ VWXG\LQJ-DSDQ·VSROLFLHVWRZDUGKLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHV7KHVHWZRQDWLRQVVWDUWHGWR HPHUJHDVFRPSHWLWRUVLQLQGXVWULHVWKDW-DSDQHVHFRPSDQLHVKDGRQFHGRPLQDWHG VXFKDVDXWRVVHPLFRQGXFWRUVVWHHODQGFRPSXWHUKDUGZDUH 2QFHWHFKQRORJLFDOFKDQJHEHFDPHUDSLGDQGXQSUHGLFWDEOHDQGIRUHLJQÀUPV VWDUWHGGHIHQGLQJWKHLULQWHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\DJJUHVVLYHO\WKHKXJH-DSDQHVHÀUPV ORFNHGLQWRDULJLGVHWRIKXPDQUHVRXUFHVDQGRUJDQL]DWLRQDOFDSDFLWLHVWKDWKLQGHUHG UDSLG UHVWUXFWXULQJ DQG TXLFN DGDSWDWLRQ WR QHZ HQYLURQPHQWV VWDUWHG WR VWXPEOH7KHLUVL]HOLIHWLPHHPSOR\PHQWDQGVHQLRULW\EDVHGZDJHSUDFWLFHVDQG RULHQWDWLRQWRZDUGLQFUHPHQWDOLQQRYDWLRQIDFWRUVWKDWVLJQLÀFDQWO\FRQWULEXWHG WR FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV LQ WKH SDVW EHFDPH OLDELOLWLHV KLQGHULQJ WKH QDWLRQ·V PRYH WRZDUGDPRUHGHFHQWUDOL]HGOLEHUDOL]HGDQGHQWUHSUHQHXUIULHQGO\V\VWHP
Industry cases Telecommunications 7KHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQGXVWU\ZDVRQHRIWKHÀUVWWHFKQRORJLFDOO\VRSKLVWLFDWHG LQGXVWULHVWKDWWKHVWDWHZRUNHGKDUGWRQXUWXUH$QDO\]LQJLWVKRZVKRZWKHVWDWH ZRUNLQJFORVHO\ZLWKWKHQDWLRQ·VODUJHÀUPVDSSURDFKHGFDWFKLQJXSZLWKWKH :HVWZLWKDUHODWLYHO\FOHDUVWUDWHJ\DQGFRQVLVWHQWVHWRISROLFLHVWRZDUGLQGXVWULHV GHHPHG VWUDWHJLF WR WKH QDWLRQ·V ORQJWHUP HFRQRPLF DQG VHFXULW\ LQWHUHVWV 3ROLF\PDNLQJZDVFHQWUDOL]HGLQWKHEXUHDXFUDF\7KHIRFXVZDVRQUDLVLQJWKH ZKROHQDWLRQ·VOHYHORIWHFKQRORJLFDOFDSDFLW\UDWKHUWKDQMXVWWKDWRIWKHVSHFLÀF LQGXVWU\ 7KLV HQWDLOHG KHDY\ LQYHVWPHQWV LQ EDVLF HGXFDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLFDO
Anchordoguy WUDLQLQJ QDWLRQDO ODERUDWRULHV DQG FRUSRUDWH KXPDQ UHVRXUFHV DQG D QDWLRQDO HIIRUWWROHDUQ,QDGGLWLRQWRWKH0LQLVWU\RI3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV037 ZKLFKZDVVXEVXPHGXQGHUWKH0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF0DQDJHPHQW+RPH$IIDLUV DQG3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVRU03+37LQ DQG177WKHFHQWUDOL]HG VWDWHFRQWUROOHGÀQDQFLDOV\VWHPDQGRWKHUVWDWHLQVWLWXWLRQVZHUHFULWLFDOWRWKLV HQGHDYRU3ULYDWHVHFWRULQVWLWXWLRQVDQGSUDFWLFHVVXFKDVWKHkeiretsuLQGXVWULDO JURXSVDQGDQHPSOR\PHQWV\VWHPRIIHULQJOLIHWLPHHPSOR\PHQWDQGVHQLRULW\ EDVHGZDJHVZHUHDOVRNH\LQJUHGLHQWVWRWKHULVHRIWKHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG RWKHUKLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHVLQWKHSRVWZDUSHULRG )URPWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHVWDWH·VSURPRWLRQRIWKHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQGXVWU\ VWDUWLQJLQWKH0HLML3HULRGWKHLQGXVWU\ZDVWLHGWR-DSDQ·VGULYHWRFDWFKXSZLWK WKH:HVW-DSDQ·VOHDGHUVUHDOL]HGWKDWWRDYRLG-DSDQEHFRPLQJDFRORQ\WKH\ QHHGHGWREHFRPHQRWRQO\PLOLWDULO\SRZHUIXOEXWDOVRWHFKQRORJLFDOO\VRSKLVWLFDWHG:DYLQJWKHÁDJRIWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVPV\PEROL]HGE\WKHUDOO\FU\RI´ULFK QDWLRQVWURQJDUP\µWKHVWDWHVSDUNHGDQLQGXVWULDOUHYROXWLRQLQWKHVE\ LQYHVWLQJ LQ VHFWRUV FRQVLGHUHG HVVHQWLDO IRU HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW -RKQVRQ 6DPXHOV 7KHVHLQFOXGHGPLQLQJUDLOURDGVHOHFWULFSRZHUDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQV 5HFRJQL]LQJ WKDW GRPHVWLF ÀUPV FRXOG QRW EXLOG D VRSKLVWLFDWHG WHOHSKRQHVWUXFWXUHZLWKRXWWDSSLQJIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\WKHVWDWHGHYLVHGDV\VWHP WKDWZRXOGOHYHUDJHWKHQDWLRQ·VEX\LQJSRZHUWRSHUVXDGHIRUHLJQÀUPVWRSURYLGHWHFKQRORJ\ZKLOHDOVRHQFRXUDJLQJ-DSDQHVHFRPSDQLHVWRLQYHVW'RNXVHQ %XQVHNL.HQN\ŗNDL 7KHVWDWHYLHZHGWKHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVVHFWRUDVRQHRIWKHFRUHEXLOGLQJEORFNV RIDQDWLRQDOV\VWHPRILQQRYDWLRQWKDWZRXOGSURSHO-DSDQWRHFRQRPLFJURZWK DQG WHFKQRORJLFDO VHOIVXIÀFLHQF\7R UHDFK WKHVH REMHFWLYHV WKH 0HLML JRYHUQPHQW LQYHVWHG KHDYLO\ LQ IRUHLJQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQV H[SHUWV DQG WHFKQRORJ\ VHQW -DSDQHVH VFLHQWLVWV DEURDG WR VWXG\ IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJ\ DQG LQYHVWHG KHDYLO\ LQ GRPHVWLF KXPDQ UHVRXUFHV DQG QDWLRQDO ODERUDWRULHV LQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQV DQG RWKHUNH\VHFWRUV7KHVWDWHDOVRXVHGOHYHUDJHWRJDLQDFFHVVWR:HVWHUQ(OHFWULF WHFKQRORJ\LQWKHODWHVZLWKRXWDOORZLQJWKHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVJLDQWWRWDNH FRQWURORIWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHW(OLRW² 7RSURGXFHLQ-DSDQWKHVWDWH IRUFHG:HVWHUQ(OHFWULFWRIRUPDMRLQWYHQWXUHLQWKLVYHQWXUHEHFDPHWKH 1LSSRQ(OHFWULF&RPSDQ\1(& RQHRI-DSDQ·VODUJHVWHOHFWURQLFVÀUPVWRGD\ 7KXV DV IDU EDFN DV WKH 0HLML 3HULRG WKH -DSDQHVH VWDWH ZRUNLQJ LQ FROODERUDWLRQZLWKDIHZSULYDWHÀUPVGHYHORSHGDQDSSURDFKWRZDUGWHFKQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ FULWLFDO LQGXVWULHV WKDW LW KDV FRQVLVWHQWO\ IROORZHG LQ WKH SRVW ZDUSHULRGDWWUDFWIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\EXWOLPLWDQGDWWDFKGHWDLOHGFRQGLWLRQVWR IRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWWRPD[LPL]HGRPHVWLFEHQHÀWV7KHVWDWHLQYHVWHGKHDYLO\LQ KXPDQ UHVRXUFHV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ D KLJKTXDOLW\ . NLQGHUJDUWHQ WKURXJK KLJK VFKRRO HGXFDWLRQV\VWHPDQGQDWLRQDODQGFRUSRUDWHODERUDWRULHV,QVKRUWIURP WKHHDUO\GD\VRI-DSDQ·VLQGXVWULDOUHYROXWLRQWKHUHZDVDVWURQJDJUHHPHQWWKDW IRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\VKRXOGEHXVHGEXWWKDWIRUHLJQÀUPVVKRXOGQHYHUEHDOORZHG WRGRPLQDWHWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW7KLVZDVGRQHZKLOHDWWKHVDPHWLPHVXSSRUWLQJVHYHUDONH\GRPHVWLFSOD\HUVRYHUWKHSHULRG :KHQ WKH 86 2FFXSDWLRQ HQGHG LQ WKH -DSDQHVH JRYHUQPHQW FUHDWHG
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations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ÀUPVDQGQDWLRQDOODERUDWRULHVVXFKDVWKRVHRI 177 177QXUWXUHGDVWURQJVHWRIÀUPVFDOOHGWKH´177IDPLO\µ7KHNH\ÀUPVLQ WKLVIDPLO\²1(&)XMLWVX+LWDFKLDQG2NL²KDYHEHHQWKHNH\SOD\HUVLQUHODWHG LQGXVWULHVVXFKDVFRPSXWHUVRIWZDUHDQGKDUGZDUHDVZHOODVVHPLFRQGXFWRUV 7KURXJKKHDY\VXSSRUWRI177IDPLO\ÀUPVWKH-DSDQHVHVWDWHKHOSHGWKHVHÀUPV HQWHU DQG EHFRPH JOREDOO\ FRPSHWLWLYH LQ WKHVH RWKHU UHODWHG LQGXVWULHV 7KHVH ÀUPV FROODERUDWHG ZLWK 177 ODERUDWRULHV LQ UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKLV ZD\WKHVWDWHIRFXVHGVFDUFHQDWLRQDOUHVRXUFHVRQDIHZNH\ÀUPV8QOLNH&KLQD DQG PRVW RWKHU GHYHORSLQJ QDWLRQV -DSDQ GHFLGHG HDUO\ RQ QRW WR UHO\ RQ WKH :RUOG %DQN RWKHU LQWHUQDWLRQDO ÀQDQFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQV RU IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW WR VXSSO\LWVFDSLWDOQHHGV(TXLSSHGZLWKKLJKVDYLQJVUDWHVLQGXFHGLQSDUWE\VWDWH SROLFLHV WKH -DSDQHVH VWDWH DQG ÀUPV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG WR IROORZ D VHOIUHOLDQW SD\DV\RXJRVWUDWHJ\ 177IRUH[DPSOHZDVÀQDQFHGE\SKRQHXVHUVQRWE\JRYHUQPHQWRUIRUHLJQ GHEW &RQVXPHUV ZHUH FKDUJHG YHU\ KLJK SULFHV IRU SKRQH VHUYLFHV +LJK IHHV ZHUHQRWXVHGWRERRVW177·VSURÀWVZKLFKZHUHOLPLWHGE\UHJXODWLRQ5DWKHU WKH\ ZHUH LQYHVWHG LQ EXLOGLQJ XS VWURQJ GRPHVWLF ÀUPV 7KDW LV KLJK SKRQH SULFHV UHÁHFWHG KLJK FRVWV HVSHFLDOO\ WKH JHQHURXV VXPV 177 SDLG LWV IDPLO\ RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ ÀUPV IRU HTXLSPHQW$ VWURQJ VWDWH FRQVHQVXV KHOG WKDW 177 VKRXOGEHXVHGWREXLOGXSDIDPLO\RIÀUPVFDSDEOHRIFRPSHWLQJLQWHUQDWLRQDOO\ LQ RUGHU WR PDNH -DSDQ WHFKQRORJLFDOO\ LQGHSHQGHQW DQG NHHS LW RQ WKH FXWWLQJ HGJHRIHOHFWURQLFV7KLVVWUDWHJ\FRVWPRQH\DQGWHOHSKRQHXVHUVSURYLGHGWKH IXQGV7KLVIXQGLQJDOORZHG177WRLQYHVWPXFKPRUHKHDYLO\HDUO\RQWKDQLW ZRXOGRWKHUZLVHKDYHEHHQDEOHWR 7HFKQRORJLFDOO\177ZDVDJUHDWEHQHÀFLDU\RI$7 7$PHULFDQ7HOHSKRQH DQG7HOHJUDSK WHFKQRORJ\XSWRDQGWKURXJKRXWWKHVLQODUJHSDUWGXHWR WKH 86 JRYHUQPHQW·V LQWHUHVW LQ EXLOGLQJ -DSDQ LQWR D VWURQJ DOO\ :KLOH 177 SURWHFWHGLWVIDPLO\ÀUPVWKHUHZDVSUHVVXUHRQWKHVHÀUPVWRSHUIRUPWRVSHFLÀF VWDQGDUGV,IDIDPLO\ÀUPSURYLGHGGHIHFWLYHSURGXFWV177ZRXOGQRWDEDQGRQ LW+RZHYHULWZRXOGFXWWKHÀUP·VVKDUHRI177SXUFKDVHVXQWLOWKHÀUPSURYHG WKDWLWVTXDOLW\KDGLPSURYHG %\WKHODWHV177KDGPHWLWVSULPDU\JRDOV²HOLPLQDWLQJWKHORQJOLVW RIEDFNRUGHUVIRUWHOHSKRQHVDQGDXWRPDWLQJWKHSKRQHV\VWHPVRWKDWFLWL]HQV FRXOG GLUHFWGLDO DQ\ZKHUH LQ WKH FRXQWU\ :KLOH 177 KDG UHOLHG KHDYLO\ RQ $7 7WHFKQRORJLHVLQWKHVDQGHDUO\VLWZDVODUJHO\VHOIVXIÀFLHQWLQ WHOHSKRQHWHFKQRORJ\E\WKHHQGRIWKHV2QFH177KDGPHWLWVNH\JRDOVLW
Anchordoguy QHHGHGDQHZPLVVLRQLQDQHUDZKHQWKHWHFKQRORJLFDOSDWKZDVQRORQJHUFOHDU 3ROLWLFDOHFRQRPLFDQGWHFKQRORJLFDOFRQGLWLRQVVKLIWHGDQGOHGWRWKHHPHUJHQFH RIYDULRXVGRPHVWLFDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQVWLWXHQFLHVZKLFKGHPDQGHGWKDW177 EHSULYDWL]HGDQGWKH177IDPLO\V\VWHPEURNHQXS%XVLQHVVH[SHQVHVFDQGDOV UDLVHGTXHVWLRQVDERXW177·VLQHIÀFLHQWPDQDJHPHQWDQGLWVRYHUDOOOHJLWLPDF\DV DSURWHFWHGQDWLRQDOPRQRSRO\(NXVD.LNXFKL² &RUSRUDWH XVHUVVWDUWHGFRPSODLQLQJDERXW177·VORZTXDOLW\GDWDFRPPXQLFDWLRQVVHUYLFHV DQGLWVKLJKSULFHV6KLPRGD²² 7KH8QLWHG6WDWHV IDFLQJ JURZLQJ GHÀFLWV ZLWK -DSDQ VWDUWHG SUHVVXULQJ 177 WR SURFXUH IRUHLJQ WHOHFRPHTXLSPHQW'RPHVWLFFRPSDQLHVWKDWKDGEHHQOHIWRXWRIWKH177IDPLO\ XVHG 86 SUHVVXUH WR WU\ WR RSHQ XS 177·V SURFXUHPHQW SURFHVV 2QFH GRXEWV ZHUHUDLVHGDERXW177·VIXWXUHVWDWHDQGFRUSRUDWHDFWRUVZLWKVWURQJVWDNHVLQ WKH RXWFRPH UHDOL]HG WKDW 177 ZRXOG EH SULYDWL]HG DQG SRVVLEO\ GLYHVWHG DQG GHFLGHGWKDWLWPLJKWDVZHOOEHFKDQJHGWRWKHLUEHQHÀW7KHVHFKDQJHVHURGHG WKHVWDWH·VFRQVHQVXVRQKRZWRXVH177IRUWKHQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWDQGXOWLPDWHO\WR DWZHQW\\HDUGHEDWHRYHUSULYDWL]LQJDQGEUHDNLQJXS177$QFKRUGRJX\ ² :KLOHFRXFKHGLQWHUPVRIHFRQRPLFHIÀFLHQF\XVHUEHQHÀWVDQGORQJWHUP FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV WKH GHEDWH RYHU SULYDWL]LQJ DQG EUHDNLQJ XS 177 ZDV GULYHQ SULPDULO\E\DSRZHUVWUXJJOHDPRQJYDULRXVFRQVWLWXHQWV037DQQXDO As a UHVXOWZKDWKDGEHHQDQHIIHFWLYHLQGXVWULDOSROLF\WRZDUG177DQGWKHLQGXVWU\ XSXQWLOWKHVGLVLQWHJUDWHGLQWRSROLWLFDOVTXDEEOLQJ9DULRXVDFWRUVWULHGWR PDQLSXODWH177WRERRVWWKHLURZQSRZHUEDVHVDQGFRPSHQVDWHORVHUVWKH\JDYH OLWWOHDWWHQWLRQWRWKHORQJWHUPFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKHLQGXVWU\DQGXVHUEHQHÀWV $QFKRUGRJX\² 7KHVH GHPDQGV GLG QXGJH WKH JRYHUQPHQW WR PRYH VORZO\ DQG UHOXFWDQWO\ WRZDUGPRUHUHOLDQFHRQPDUNHWIRUFHV$SURFXUHPHQWDJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQWKH86 JRYHUQPHQWDQG177ZKLFKFDPHLQWRHIIHFWLQ-DQXDU\IRUPDOO\RSHQHG XS177SURFXUHPHQWWRIRUHLJQSURGXFWVDVZHOODVWKRVHRIGRPHVWLFÀUPVOHIW RXWRIWKH177IDPLO\7KHSULPDU\ÀUPVLQWKH´177IDPLO\µ²1(&)XMLWVX +LWDFKLDQG2NL²UHPDLQWKHPDMRUSOD\HUVLQ-DSDQ·VWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVPDUNHWDQG177·VSURFXUHPHQW6LQFHPXFKRI177·VHTXLSPHQWLVVWLOOGHYHORSHG LQFROODERUDWLRQZLWKWKHVHÀUPVLQ177ODERUDWRULHVDQG177FRQWLQXHVWRUHO\ VLJQLÀFDQWO\RQLWVRZQSURSULHWDU\VWDQGDUGVWKHVHÀUPVDUHVWLOOVRPHZKDWEXIIHUHGIURPRXWVLGHFRPSHWLWLRQ %XUHDXFUDWLFDQGSROLWLFDOLQÀJKWLQJRYHURZQHUVKLSFRUSRUDWHRUJDQL]DWLRQ DQGWKHUHJXODWRU\UHJLPHRI177FRQWLQXHVWRGD\7KHVWDWHFRQWLQXHVWREHD UHOXFWDQWODWHOLEHUDOL]HU7KHUHZDVDFRVPHWLFEUHDNXSRI177LQ-XO\EXW WKHEUHDNXSLQQRZD\LQFUHDVHGFRPSHWLWLRQ037²0RUL\XNL
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations Bijinesu,$SULOSS 03+37·VPLVJXLGHGSROLFLHVWRZDUG177 DQGWKHLQGXVWU\KDYHKLQGHUHGXVHRIWKHLQWHUQHWLQ-DSDQDQGVDGGOHGWKHEXVLQHVVVHFWRUZLWKPXFKKLJKHUFRPPXQLFDWLRQVFRVWVWKDQLQRWKHUQDWLRQV7KHUHLV DVHULRXVVHQVHRIFULVLVLQWKHLQGXVWU\WRGD\,WLVFOHDUWKDW177ZRXOGQRWIDUH ZHOOLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPSHWLWLRQDQGWKXVPDQ\DUHVNHSWLFDORILWVDELOLW\WRVXFFHHGLQIRUHLJQPDUNHWV/HDGHUVNQRZWKDWPRUHFRPSHWLWLRQZRXOGXOWLPDWHO\ VWUHQJWKHQWKHJLDQW\HWWKH\IHDUWKDWDUHDOEUHDNXSDQGUHDOFRPSHWLWLRQZLWK IRUHLJQÀUPVZRXOGOHDYHWKHJLDQWDORVHU(YHQQRZ177DOPRVWFRPSOHWHO\ GRPLQDWHVWKHKRPHPDUNHWLQORFDOVHUYLFHVDQGLVDYHU\ODUJHSOD\HULQORQJ GLVWDQFHDQGPRELOHSKRQHVHUYLFHV+RZHYHUDVKLIWWRZDUGIRUHLJQRZQHG,3 LQWHUQHWSURWRFRO VWDQGDUGVVWDUWLQJLQWKHHDUO\WRPLGVLVVWDUWLQJWRXQGHUPLQHWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRI177DQGLWVIDPLO\ÀUPV Computer hardware 7KH VWDWH DOVR KDG DQ HODERUDWH FHQWUDOL]HG VHW RI SROLFLHV DLPHG DW FUHDWLQJ D FRPSHWLWLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ FRPSXWHU KDUGZDUH 7KLV VWUDWHJ\ OLNH WKDW LQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQYROYHGKHDY\LQYHVWPHQWVLQ5 'DQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHV DQG VNLOOIXO DFFHVV WR IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJ\ ZLWKRXW DOORZLQJ IRUHLJQ ÀUPV WR GRPLQDWHWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW 3URPRWLRQRIWKHFRPSXWHUPDLQIUDPHLQGXVWU\EHJDQLQWKHODWHVZKHQ ERWK 177 DQG 0,7, ODERUDWRULHV VWDUWHG ZRUNLQJ RQ FRPSXWLQJ GHYLFHV7KHUH ZDVQRVHULRXVGHEDWHRYHUZKHWKHUWRJRLQWRFRPSXWHUVWKHUHZDVDFRQVHQVXV DPRQJVWDWHDQGFRUSRUDWHDFWRUVWKDWDGRPHVWLFFRPSXWHULQGXVWU\ZDVQHFHVVDU\IRUORQJWHUPGHYHORSPHQWDQGWHFKQRORJLFDOVHOIVXIÀFLHQF\ ,%0ZDVWKHPDMRUREVWDFOHWKDWWKH0,7,DQGWKHÀUPVKDGWRFRQWHQGZLWK GXULQJWKHFDWFKXSSHULRGIURPWKHVWKURXJKWRWKHHDUO\V8QOLNHLQ WKHWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQGXVWU\LQZKLFK177KDGDSURWHFWHGPRQRSRO\DQG HDV\OHJDODFFHVVWR$7 7WHFKQRORJLHVWKHKDUGZDUHFRPSDQLHVKDGQRFKRLFH EXW WR FRQWHQG ZLWK ,%0·V GRPLQDQFH RI FRPSXWHU WHFKQRORJ\ HVSHFLDOO\ WKH RSHUDWLQJV\VWHP -DSDQHVH FRPSDQLHV RI FRXUVH ZHUH QRW FRQFHUQHG ZLWK EHDWLQJ ,%0 WR WKH PDUNHW 7KH\ FOHDUO\ KDG QR FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ VXFK VRSKLVWLFDWHG FDSLWDOLQWHQVLYH SURGXFWV +RZHYHU VWDWH DQG LQGXVWU\ OHDGHUV GLG QRW ZDQW WR UHO\RQIRUHLJQSURGXFWVRYHUWKHORQJWHUPVRWKH\VHWRXWWRFUHDWHDFRPSDUDWLYHDGYDQWDJHLQWKHLQGXVWU\7KH\KRSHGWRFDWFKXSRYHUWLPHDQGZHUHOXFN\ WREHDEOHWRUHYHUVHHQJLQHHU,%0·VSURGXFWVEHFDXVHWKHJLDQWHQWDQJOHGLQD ZHERIDQWLPRQRSRO\LQYHVWLJDWLRQVFRXOGQRWDJJUHVVLYHO\VXHÀUPVFRS\LQJ LWVSURGXFWV 7KH VWDWH KDG IRXU SULPDU\ SROLFLHV WRZDUG WKH LQGXVWU\ XS XQWLO WKH HDUO\ VSURWHFWLRQLVPDTXDVLSXEOLFFRPSXWHUUHQWDOFRPSDQ\FDOOHGWKH-DSDQ (OHFWURQLF &RPSXWHU &RPSDQ\ -(&& ÀQDQFLDO DVVLVWDQFH DQG D YDULHW\ RI VWDWHVSRQVRUHGFRRSHUDWLYH5 'SURMHFWV-DSDQHVHOHDGHUV·LQLWLDOFRQFHUQZDV WRFUHDWHYLDEOHSOD\HUVLQWKHFRPSXWHULQGXVWU\VLQFHFRPSXWHUVZRXOGEHNH\ LQSXWVIRUPDQ\LQGXVWULHVLQFOXGLQJWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVKHDY\HOHFWULFDOHTXLS-
Anchordoguy PHQWFRPSXWHUL]HGIDFWRU\DXWRPDWLRQDQGWKHOLNH%HFDXVHÀUPVLQLQGXVWULDO JURXSVKHOGHDFKRWKHU·VVKDUHVDQGDJUHHGQRW WRVHOOWKHPWKH\GLGQRWQHHG ODUJHSURÀWVWRVXUYLYH+RZHYHUWKH\FRXOGQRWDIIRUGWRORVHPRQH\IRUGHFDGHV 7KHFKDOOHQJHZDVWRFUHDWHDVWDEOHSUHGLFWDEOHHQYLURQPHQWWRLQGXFHSULYDWH ÀUPVWRLQYHVWKHDYLO\7KHGHWDLOVRIWKHSROLFLHVXVHGWRFUHDWHWKLVHQYLURQPHQW DUHDYDLODEOHHOVHZKHUHDQGDUHEULHÁ\VXPPDUL]HGEHORZ 7RSURWHFWWKHPDUNHWDQGSURYLGHGRPHVWLFÀUPVZLWKDVDIHKDYHQWKHVWDWH XVHGDYDULHW\RIFRQYHQWLRQDOWDULIIVSHUFHQW LPSRUWTXRWDVSROLFLHVUHTXLULQJ JRYHUQPHQW SURFXUHPHQW RI GRPHVWLF PDFKLQHV DQG YDULRXV GLVFUHWLRQDU\ SROLFLHV6LQFHWKH0,7,FRQWUROOHG-DSDQ·VIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHEXGJHWDQGUHTXLUHG XVHUVWRDFTXLUHDQLPSRUWOLFHQVHWRSXUFKDVHDIRUHLJQPDFKLQHWKHPLQLVWU\·V SUHVVXUHRQÀUPVWREX\GRPHVWLFZDVTXLWHHIIHFWLYH 7KHSOD\LQJÀHOGZDVDOVRWLOWHGWRWKHDGYDQWDJHRIGRPHVWLFPDNHUVE\DQ DUUD\ RI VWLII UHJXODWLRQV RQ IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW :KLOH IRUHLJQ ÀUPV HQWHULQJ WKHFRPSXWHUPDUNHWDIWHUWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKH)RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQW/DZ ZHUHUHTXLUHGWRPDNHMRLQWYHQWXUHV,%0KDGDZKROO\RZQHGVXEVLGLDU\IURP WKHSUHZDU\HDUVDQGWKXVZDVQRWVXEMHFWWRWKLVFRQVWUDLQW(YHQVRWKH0,7, DWWDFKHGDYDULHW\RIVWULQJVWRJLYLQJ,%0SHUPLVVLRQWRSURGXFHLQ-DSDQVWDUWLQJ LQ WKH V XQWLO WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKLV DJUHHPHQW ,%0·V VXEVLGLDU\ KDGSHUPLVVLRQWRVHOORQO\LPSRUWHGSURGXFW 7KHVHSROLFLHVFRQWUROOHGWKHW\SH DQG TXDQWLW\ RI PDFKLQHV WKDW ,%0 ZDV DOORZHG WR SURGXFH LQ -DSDQ DQG DOVR GHWHUPLQHGKRZPXFKLWKDGWRH[SRUWKRZPDQ\SDUWVLWFRXOGLPSRUWDQGKRZ PXFKSURÀWLWFRXOGUHSDWULDWH,%0REWDLQHGSHUPLVVLRQWRSURGXFHLQ-DSDQRQO\ ZKHQLWDJUHHGWROLFHQVHLWVSDWHQWVDWUHDVRQDEOHUR\DOW\IHHVWRORFDOÀUPV $OWKRXJKSURWHFWLRQLVPRIWHQOHDGVWRVOXJJLVKQHVVDQGLQHIÀFLHQF\GRPHVWLF FRPSHWLWLRQZDVHQFRXUDJHGUHTXLULQJÀUPVWRPDNHLQFUHDVLQJO\EHWWHUPDFKLQHV LQ RUGHU WR VWD\ LQ EXVLQHVV 7KH UHVXOW ZDV LQFUHDVHG GHPDQG IRU GRPHVWLF PDFKLQHVZKLFKVWLPXODWHGVXSSO\'HVSLWHWKHLQIHULRULW\RIGRPHVWLFPDFKLQHV WKHIRUHLJQVKDUHRIWKHPDUNHWLPSRUWVDQG,%0·VSURGXFWLRQLQ-DSDQ IHOOIURP SHUFHQWLQWRSHUFHQWLQ7KLVURVHWRSHUFHQWLQDVD UHVXOWRI,%0·VLQWURGXFWLRQRILWVUHYROXWLRQDU\VHULHVRIPDLQIUDPHFRPSXWHUV+RZHYHULWGHFOLQHGWRSHUFHQWLQSHUFHQWLQDQG SHUFHQWLQ $QRWKHU LQVWLWXWLRQ FULWLFDO WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH FRPSXWHU KDUGZDUH LQGXVWU\ZDVWKH-(&&6HWXSLQDVDMRLQWYHQWXUHLQYROYLQJ-DSDQ·VVHYHQ FRPSXWHUPDQXIDFWXUHUVDQGÀQDQFHGLQKDOIE\ORZLQWHUHVWJRYHUQPHQWORDQV -(&&ZRUNHGLQPDUNHWFRQIRUPLQJZD\VWREXWWUHVVÀUPVWKDWZRUNHGKDUGWR PDNH PRUH DGYDQFHG FRPSXWHUV ,W ZRUNHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ ZD\ ZKHQ D XVHU GHFLGHG ZKLFK VSHFLÀF PDFKLQH LW ZDQWHG WR UHQW LW WROG -(&& ZKLFK ERXJKW WKHPDFKLQHIURPWKHGHVLJQDWHGPDNHUDQGUHQWHGLWWRWKHXVHUIRUDUHDVRQDEOH PRQWKO\ IHH 7KH XVHU KDG WR NHHS WKH FRPSXWHU IRU DW OHDVW ÀIWHHQ PRQWKV RU SD\DSHQDOW\:KHQXVHUVUHWXUQHGDPDFKLQHWKHPDQXIDFWXUHUZDVIRUFHGWR UHSXUFKDVHLWDWERRNYDOXHIURP-(&&7KHHIIHFWZDVWRJLYH-DSDQHVHGRPHVWLF FRPSXWHU ÀUPV DQ LPPHGLDWH UHWXUQ RQ WKHLU LQYHVWPHQW LI WKH ÀUPV KDG KDG WRÀQDQFHWKHLURZQUHQWDOVWKH\ZRXOGKDYHUHFHLYHGUHWXUQVLQVPDOOPRQWKO\
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations SD\PHQWVRYHUDIRXU\HDUSHULRG$V-(&&SXUFKDVHGRQO\WKRVHPDFKLQHVWKDW XVHUVVSHFLÀFDOO\DVNHGWRUHQWWKHUHZDVDGLUHFWOLQNWRWKHPDUNHW,IQRRQH DVNHGWRUHQW\RXUPDFKLQH-(&&GLGQRWEX\LW7KXVWKHÀUPVPDNLQJWKHEHVW PDFKLQHV JRW WKH PRVW EHQHÀW IURP -(&& 7KH -(&& V\VWHP QRW RQO\ KHOSHG WKHÀUPVUHQWWKHLUPDFKLQHVLWDOVRPDQDJHGDSULFHFDUWHO,QFRQVXOWDWLRQZLWK WKH PDQXIDFWXUHUV -(&& VHW WKH SULFHV RQ WKH FRPSXWHUV LW UHQWHG RXW DQG QR GLVFRXQWVZHUHDOORZHG7KLVSULFHÁRRUDVVXUHGWKHÀUPVWKDWWKHLUHIIRUWVZRXOG QRWEHZKLWWOHGDZD\LQFXWWKURDWSULFHZDUVSURPRWHGFRRSHUDWLYHFRPSHWLWLRQ DQGSURWHFWHGWKHZHDNDQGWKHVWURQJ 7KHVWDWHJDYHVLJQLÀFDQWÀQDQFLDODLGWRWKHFRPSXWHULQGXVWU\LQWKHIRUP RI VXEVLGLHV WD[ EHQHÀWV DQG ORZLQWHUHVW ORDQV ,W LV QR FRLQFLGHQFH WKDW WKH ELJJHVWUHFLSLHQWVRIJRYHUQPHQWVXSSRUWZHUHWKHNH\PHPEHUVRIWKH177IDPLO\²1(&)XMLWVX+LWDFKLDQG2NL7KH0,7,EHOLHYHGWKDWODUJHGLYHUVLÀHG ÀUPVZHUHEHVWDEOHWRVXUYLYHRYHUWKHORQJUXQDQGNQHZWKDWWKHVHIRXUÀUPV FRXOG XVH SURÀWV IURP VDOHV WR 177 WR VXEVLGL]H WKHLUHQWU\ LQWR WKHKLJKFRVW KLJKULVNFRPSXWHUEXVLQHVV6RPH86ELOOLRQZDVIXQQHOHGLQWR-(&&LQWKH IRUPRIORZLQWHUHVWJRYHUQPHQWORDQVIURPWRWRWKHVHNH\ÀUPV)RU WKHLQGXVWU\DVDZKROHIURPWRWKHVWDWHSURYLGHGVXEVLGLHVDQGWD[ EHQHÀWV86PLOOLRQ HTXLYDOHQWWRSHUFHQWRIZKDWWKHÀUPVWKHPVHOYHV ZHUHLQYHVWLQJLQ5 'DQGSODQWDQGHTXLSPHQW,IZHLQFOXGHJRYHUQPHQWORDQV GXULQJWKLVSHULRGWRWDODLG86PLOOLRQ ZDVHTXDOWRSHUFHQWRIZKDW WKHÀUPVZHUHLQYHVWLQJ7KDWLVWKHVWDWHZDVSORZLQJLQQRWMXVWIXQGLQJIRU LQYHVWPHQW EXW DOVR ZRUNLQJ FDSLWDO WR NHHS WKH LQGXVWU\ DOLYH )URP WR GLUHFWVXEVLGLHVDQGWD[EHQHÀWV86PLOOLRQ ZHUHHTXLYDOHQWWR SHUFHQWRIZKDWWKHÀUPVZHUHLQYHVWLQJULVLQJWRSHUFHQW86ELOOLRQ LIJRYHUQPHQWORDQVDUHLQFOXGHG$OWKRXJKWKHKDUGZDUHLQGXVWU\ZDVIRUPDOO\ OLEHUDOL]HGDWWKHHQGRIVXEVLGLHVDQGWD[EHQHÀWV86ELOOLRQ ZHUH VWLOOSHUFHQWRIZKDWWKHÀUPVZHUHLQYHVWLQJLQWKHSHULRGIURPWR LQFOXGLQJVWDWHORDQVWRWDODLG86ELOOLRQ ZDVVWLOOHTXDOWRSHUFHQWRI ZKDWWKHÀUPVWKHPVHOYHVZHUHLQYHVWLQJLQ5 'DQGSODQWDQGHTXLSPHQW )LQDQFLDOVXSSRUWZDVRQWKHZKROHHIIHFWLYHEHFDXVHLWZDVSURYLGHGLQZD\V WKDWPDGHWKHÀUPVSURGXFHEHWWHUPDFKLQHVDVDFRQGLWLRQIRUUHFHLYLQJIXWXUH DLG,QPRVWFDVHVWKHÀUPVKDGWRPDWFKWKHDLGWRUHFHLYHLWIRUFLQJWKHPWRFRPPLWWRVXFFHHGLQJ6RPHRIWKHÀQDQFLDODLGZDVWLHGWRVSHFLÀFVWDWHVSRQVRUHG FRRSHUDWLYH 5 ' SURMHFWV 7KHVH SURMHFWV LQYROYHG SRROLQJ UHVRXUFHV VKDULQJ 5 'UHVXOWVDQGGLYLGLQJXSWKHODERUWRFDWFKXSZLWKVSHFLÀF,%0PDFKLQHV 7KH\KHOSHGWKHLQGXVWU\DVDZKROHFRXQWHU,%0DVTXLFNO\DQGHIÀFLHQWO\DV SRVVLEOHDQGZHUHFULWLFDOWRSXWWLQJWKHÀUPVRQDSDWKWRZDUGVHOIVXIÀFLHQF\LQ KDUGZDUH WHFKQRORJ\ -DSDQHVH KDUGZDUH PDQXIDFWXUHUV ZHUH FRPSHWLWLYH ZLWK ,%0LQKDUGZDUHE\WKHODWHV $ VKDUS DQG VXGGHQ VKLIW LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW RI -DSDQ·V FRPSXWHU KDUGZDUH PDQXIDFWXUHUV KLW LQ WKH VXPPHU RI ,%0 QHZO\ IUHHG IURP D GHFDGHV ORQJ DQWLWUXVW LQYHVWLJDWLRQ E\ WKH 86 'HSDUWPHQW RI -XVWLFH FRRSHUDWHG ZLWK WKH)%,LQDVWLQJRSHUDWLRQLQZKLFK-DSDQHVHÀUPVZHUHFDXJKWVWHDOLQJ,%0·V VRIWZDUHWHFKQRORJ\7KLVPHDQWWKDW-DSDQHVHÀUPVKDGWRVWDUWSD\LQJ,%0KXJH
Anchordoguy VXPVRIPRQH\IRUHVVHQWLDOO\FRS\LQJ,%0·VVRIWZDUHDQGVHOOLQJLWEXQGOHGZLWK -DSDQHVHKDUGZDUH´,QDOORI+LWDFKL·VKLVWRU\WKHUHZDVQHYHUDVKRFNOLNHWKDWµ DGPLWWHGWKHFRPSDQ\·VYLFHSUHVLGHQW7Ŀ\ĿNHL]DL)HEUXDU\ 7KLVVKRFNKLWWKHLQGXVWU\DWDWLPHRIUDSLGWHFKQRORJLFDOFKDQJH+DUGZDUH ZDV TXLFNO\ EHFRPLQJ D ORZSURÀW FRPPRGLW\ SURGXFW DQG VRIWZDUH WKH KLJK YDOXHDGGHG FRPSRQHQW 7KH ULVH LQ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI VRIWZDUH DQG SRZHUIXO PLFURSURFHVVRUVVKLIWHGWKHLQGXVWU\·VWHFKQRORJLFDOWUDMHFWRU\DZD\IURPODUJH PDLQIUDPHV ² WKH PDLQVWD\ RI ,%0 DQG -DSDQHVH PDNHUV ² WRZDUG VPDOOHU PDFKLQHV-DSDQHVHKDUGZDUHPDQXIDFWXUHUVZHUHFDXJKWRIIJXDUG7KH\ZHUH KXJH YHUWLFDOO\ GLYHUVLÀHG ÀUPV ORFNHG LQWR D VHW RI RUJDQL]DWLRQDO FDSDFLWLHV KXPDQ UHVRXUFHV À[HG DVVHWV DQG EX\HU²VXSSOLHU UHODWLRQVKLSV WLHG WR PDLQIUDPHVDQGDLPHGDWLQFUHPHQWDOUDWKHUWKDQUDGLFDOWHFKQRORJLFDOFKDQJH:LWK FRPSXWHUXVHUVORFNHGLQWRWKHYDULRXVSURSULHWDU\VWDQGDUGVRI-DSDQHVHPDNHUV WKHUHZDVQRWDQLPPHGLDWHFRQVWLWXHQF\GHPDQGLQJGRZQVL]LQJDQGDVKLIWWR JOREDOVWDQGDUGVLQGHHGRQWKHFRQWUDU\WKLVZRXOGPHDQWKDWXVHUV·FRPSXWHU HTXLSPHQWZRXOGEHFRPHREVROHWH$VDUHVXOWWKH-DSDQHVHPDUNHWZDVPXFK VORZHUWKDQWKH86RQHLQVKLIWLQJDZD\IURPPDLQIUDPHV1DND\DPDet al 2QLVKLDQG1LKHL *LYHQWKHFRQVWUDLQWVWKHNH\FRUSRUDWHSOD\HUV IDFHGXQGHUPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQVLWLVQRVXUSULVHWKDWWKHVWDWHZDVDODWHOLEHUDOL]HU LQDQLQGXVWU\WKDWLWKDGKHDYLO\QXUWXUHG -DSDQHVH PDQXIDFWXUHUV FRXOG VWLOO SURGXFH KLJKTXDOLW\ KDUGZDUH EXW WKHLU FRVW VWUXFWXUH KDG GUDPDWLFDOO\ FKDQJHG 1RZ WKH\ KDG WR SD\ ,%0 IRU XVLQJ LWV VRIWZDUH 0RUHRYHU DV ÀUPV LQ FRXQWULHV VXFK DV 6RXWK .RUHD DQG7DLZDQ IROORZLQJ -DSDQHVHVW\OH LQGXVWULDO SROLFLHV KDG EHFRPH VNLOOHG LQ SURGXFLQJ KDUGZDUH DQG KDG PXFK ORZHU ZDJHV -DSDQHVH ÀUPV FRXOG QR ORQJHU PDNH D SURÀWRIIKDUGZDUH0XFKRIWKHLUSURGXFWLRQPRYHGRIIVKRUHWRRWKHUSDUWVRI $VLD7KHNH\WRDFRPSHWLWLYHFRPSXWHULQGXVWU\ZDVQRZVRIWZDUHDWRSLFWR ZKLFKZHQRZWXUQ Computer software -DSDQ·VVRIWZDUHLQGXVWU\JUHZRXWRIWKHVWDWH·VHIIRUWVWRSURPRWHWKHFRPSXWHU LQGXVWU\VWDUWLQJLQWKHHDUO\V:KHQ,%0DQQRXQFHGLWVQHZDGYDQFHG VHULHVRIFRPSXWHUVLQWKH0,7,SURPSWO\VHWXSLWVÀUVWPDMRUFRPSXWHU SURMHFW LQYROYLQJ VRIWZDUH WKH 6XSHU +LJKSHUIRUPDQFH &RPSXWHU 3URMHFW ² 7RGHYHORSWKHSURMHFW·VVRIWZDUHWKH0,7,KHOSHGFUHDWHWKH-DSDQ 6RIWZDUH &RPSDQ\ D MRLQW YHQWXUH LQYROYLQJ WKH WKUHH VWURQJHVW KDUGZDUH PDQXIDFWXUHUV²1(&)XMLWVXDQG+LWDFKL²DQGWKH,QGXVWULDO%DQNRI-DSDQ D EDQN VXSSRUWLYH RI VWDWH SROLFLHV7KH FRPSDQ\ ZDV WR GHYHORS DQ RSHUDWLQJ V\VWHP26 WKDWFRXOGUXQRQDOOWKUHHPDQXIDFWXUHUV·PDFKLQHV+RZHYHUWKH YHUWLFDOO\ LQWHJUDWHG KDUGZDUHVRIWZDUH ÀUPV KDG QR LQFHQWLYH WR IROORZ WKH 0,7,·VSODQIRUDFRPPRQVRIWZDUHVWDQGDUG7KH\ZHUHDOOORVLQJKHDYLO\LQWKHLU KDUGZDUHGLYLVLRQVHYHQWKRXJKWKH\ZHUHORFNLQJLQXVHUVZLWKFORVHGVWDQGDUGV 7KHVRIWZDUHEXGJHWIRUWKHSURMHFWZDVRQO\SHUFHQWRIWKHSURMHFW·VWRWDOFRVW UHÁHFWLQJWKHVWDWH·VORZHUSULRULW\IRUVRIWZDUHWKDQIRUKDUGZDUHDVZHOODVWKH
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations 0LQLVWU\RI)LQDQFH·V02) UHOXFWDQFHWRIXQGZKDWLWVDZDVLQWDQJLEOHSURGXFWV $QFKRUGRJX\ 7KH-DSDQ6RIWZDUH&RPSDQ\GLGQRWPHHWLWVDPELWLRXVREMHFWLYHV´.RQPHL QR VRIXWRXHD J\ĿNDL R LNLQXNXµ .RPS\ŗWRSLD -DQXDU\ SS ² $QFKRUGRJX\² 6WDWHDQGFRUSRUDWHODFNRINQRZOHGJHDERXWVRIWZDUH WHFKQRORJ\PLQLPDOÀQDQFLDOVXSSRUWDQGFRQWUDGLFWRU\LQFHQWLYHVIRUWKHÀUPV OHGWRLWVEDQNUXSWF\LQ([WHUQDOHYHQWVDOVRPDGHWKHFRPSDQ\REVROHWH,Q ,%0XQGHUSUHVVXUHIURPWKH86'HSDUWPHQWRI-XVWLFH·VDQWLWUXVWLQYHVWLJDWLRQVGHFLGHGWRXQEXQGOHSULFHDQGVHOODVVHSDUDWHSURGXFWV LWVKDUGZDUHDQG VRIWZDUH7KLVRSHQHGXSDZRUOGRIRSSRUWXQLW\IRU-DSDQHVHKDUGZDUHPDNHUV ,%0·VXQEXQGOLQJDOORZHG)XMLWVXDQG+LWDFKLWZRRI-DSDQ·VWRSWKUHHKDUGZDUH PDNHUVWRWDNHDQ,%0FRPSDWLEOHURXWH0RVWLPSRUWDQWO\ZKLOHWLHGXSZLWK DQWLWUXVWFRQFHUQV,%0ZDVQRWLQDSRVLWLRQWRFRPSODLQDERXWVPDOOIRUHLJQ FRPSHWLWRUVHVVHQWLDOO\FRS\LQJLWV26DQGDSSOLFDWLRQVVRIWZDUH7KLVDOORZHG WKH 0,7, DQG WKH PDQXIDFWXUHUV WR IRFXV RQ KDUGZDUH ZKLFK LW FRXOG OHJDOO\ UHYHUVH HQJLQHHU DQG HQDEOHG WKH EURDGHU VWUDWHJ\ RI FRPSHWLQJ WKURXJK VFDOH HFRQRPLHVDQGPDQXIDFWXULQJH[SHUWLVH )XMLWVXDQG+LWDFKLPRGLÀHG,%0·V26VWDQGDUGVXIÀFLHQWO\VRWKDWLWZRXOG QRWEHFRPSDWLEOHZLWKRWKHU,%0EDVHGPDFKLQHVDQGWKH\FRQWLQXHGWREXQGOH WKHLUKDUGZDUHDQGVRIWZDUH%\GRLQJVRWKH\ORFNHGLQXVHUVSUHYHQWLQJWKHP IURPFRPELQLQJGLIIHUHQWEUDQGVRIKDUGZDUHDQGVRIWZDUHZLWKRXWFRVWO\DGMXVWPHQWV 1(& KDG WHFKQRORJLFDO WLHV ZLWK +RQH\ZHOO EXW FUHDWHG LWV RZQ FORVHG VWDQGDUGWRR%\SURWHFWLQJWKHPDUNHWZLWKWKHLURZQFORVHGVWDQGDUGVDQGEXQGOLQJVRIWZDUHDQGKDUGZDUHWRJHWKHULQRQHSURGXFWWKHÀUPVKDGWKHOX[XU\RI EXLOGLQJXSVRIWZDUHFDSDELOLWLHVVORZO\DQGLQFUHPHQWDOO\ 7KRXJKWKHVWDWH·VSULPDU\IRFXVWKURXJKRXWWKHVZDVRQKDUGZDUHLWGLG QRWFRPSOHWHO\LJQRUHWKHFRPSXWHUVRIWZDUHLQGXVWU\7KH0,7,ZDVSDUWLFXODUO\ FRQFHUQHGDERXWLQFUHDVLQJWKHQXPEHUDQGSURGXFWLYLW\RIVRIWZDUHHQJLQHHUV 7R GR VR LW FUHDWHG WKH ,QIRUPDWLRQ 3URFHVVLQJ 3URPRWLRQ $VVRFLDWLRQ ,3$ ZKLFKVSRQVRUHGVHYHUDO0,7,IXQGHGUHVHDUFKSURMHFWV7KH,3$DQGLWVSURMHFWV KDYHQRWEHHQYHU\HIIHFWLYH/RZIXQGLQJDQGWKHODFNRIDVWURQJLQWHOOHFWXDO SURSHUW\UHJLPHWRSURWHFWVRIWZDUHLQYHQWLRQVFRQWULEXWHGWRWKH,3$·VLQDELOLW\ WRQXUWXUHQHZVRIWZDUHSURJUDPVDQGÀUPVWKURXJKVXEVLGLHVDQGFRRSHUDWLYH 5 'SURMHFWV$OVRVLQFHWKHÀUPVVROGWKHLUVRIWZDUHDQGKDUGZDUHDVDSDFNDJHLQFRPSDWLEOHZLWKRWKHUV\VWHPVWKHUHZDVYLUWXDOO\QRGHPDQGIRU,3$VXSSRUWHGVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHV$QFKRUGRJX\²²-DSDQ(OHFWURQLFV ,QGXVWU\3URPRWLRQ,QGXVWU\$VVRFLDWLRQ7RMR 7KH QDWLRQ·V GHSHQGHQFH RQ IUDJPHQWHG FORVHG VRIWZDUH VWDQGDUGV ZDV QRW D PDMRU SUREOHP DV ORQJ DV WKH ÀUPV FRXOG TXLFNO\ FRS\ ,%0·V VRIWZDUH DQG WKHUHE\VXSSO\WKHLUORFNHGLQXVHUVZLWKVRIWZDUHWKDWPHWWKHLUQHHGV+RZHYHU DIWHUWKHÀUPVZHUHFDXJKW´ERUURZLQJµ,%0·VVRIWZDUHWHFKQRORJ\LQWKH)%, VWLQJLQWKHVXPPHURISURYLGLQJWKHLUFXVWRPHUVZLWKVRIWZDUHIRUZKLFK WKH\KDGWRSD\,%0ODUJHIHHVEHFDPHPXFKPRUHH[SHQVLYH7RPLQLPL]HVXFK KLJKIHHV-DSDQHVHKDUGZDUHFRPSDQLHVZKLFKVROGWKHLUVRIWZDUHEXQGOHGZLWK WKHLUKDUGZDUH WULHGWRGLYHUVLI\WKHLUUHOLDQFHRQ,%0·VPDLQIUDPHVWDQGDUG,Q
Anchordoguy WKHVWKHUHZDVDVWURQJPRYHWRZDUG81,;EDVHGV\VWHPVDQGDQDWWHPSW WR FUHDWH D XQLTXH -DSDQHVH RSHUDWLQJ V\VWHP VWDQGDUG FDOOHG 7521 1RQH RI WKHVHHIIRUWVZDVYHU\VXFFHVVIXO$QFKRUGRJX\²+D\DVKL -DSDQ(OHFWURQLFV,QGXVWU\3URPRWLRQ$VVRFLDWLRQ²&DOORQ :LWKWKHFRPSXWHUPDNHUVODFNLQJWKHIXQGVDQGKXPDQUHVRXUFHVWRFRQVLVWHQWO\ XSJUDGHWKHLUVRIWZDUHXVHUVRYHUWLPHZHUHLQFUHDVLQJO\VWXFNZLWKVRIWZDUH VLJQLÀFDQWO\LQIHULRUWRVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHVEDVHGRQLQWHUQDWLRQDOVWDQGDUGVVROG RQWKHRSHQPDUNHW-DSDQ(OHFWURQLFV,QGXVWU\3URPRWLRQ$VVRFLDWLRQ 0,7,$QFKRUGRJX\ 7KHVWDWHDQGWKHPDNHUVVLPSO\GLGQRWJUDVSWKHORQJWHUPQHJDWLYHLPSDFW RI ORFNLQJ WKH ZKROH HFRQRP\ LQWR IUDJPHQWHG FORVHG FRPSXWHU VWDQGDUGV /LEHUDOL]LQJ WKH LQGXVWU\ KDG QHYHU EHHQ RQ WKH VWDWH·V RU WKH PDNHUV·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
Japan’s technology policies and their limitations -DSDQHVHÀUPV·ODJLQFRPSXWHUVRIWZDUHWHFKQRORJLHVFRQWLQXHVLQWKHV )LUPVDUHHPEUDFLQJ/LQX[DIUHHRSHQV\VWHPVWDQGDUGZKLFKZLOODOOHYLDWHEXW E\QRPHDQVHOLPLQDWHWKHSUREOHP+RZHYHUZHPXVWQRWRYHUVWDWHWKHSUREOHPV RI-DSDQ·VLQGXVWU\7KRXJKYHU\ZHDNLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV-DSDQHVHÀUPV VWLOOGRPLQDWHWKHLURZQPDUNHW7KH\KHOGWKHPDMRULW\VKDUHRIWKHLU86 ELOOLRQ FRPSXWHU VRIWZDUH PDUNHW LQ 7KRXJK OHVV GHSHQGHQW WKDQ WKHLU (XURSHDQFRXQWHUSDUWV-DSDQ·VLPSRUWVRIVRIWZDUHKDYHVRDUHGLQUHFHQW\HDUV ,WVWUDGHGHÀFLWLQVRIWZDUHLQFOXGLQJJDPHVRIWZDUHDPDMRUH[SRUWURVHIURP 86ELOOLRQLQWR86ELOOLRQLQ,QSHUFHQWRI-DSDQ·V FRPSXWHUVRIWZDUHZDVLPSRUWHGXSIURPSHUFHQWLQ86,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7UDGH$GPLQLVWUDWLRQDQQXDO86*RYHUQPHQW 7KHDGYDQFHGQDWLRQVRI (XURSH FOHDUO\ ODJ LQ VRIWZDUH KRZHYHU -DSDQ·V ZHDNQHVV VWDQGV RXW EHFDXVH LW KDV EHHQ TXLWH VXFFHVVIXO LQ UHODWHG LQGXVWULHV VXFK DV WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV FRPSXWHU PDLQIUDPHV 3& KDUGZDUH DQG VHPLFRQGXFWRUV DUHDV WKDW (XURSHDQ ÀUPVKDYHQRWEHHQVXFFHVVIXOLQ
Conclusion 7KLV EURDG RYHUYLHZ RI VWDWH WHFKQRORJ\ SROLFLHV WRZDUG -DSDQ·V WHOH FRPPXQLFDWLRQVFRPSXWHUKDUGZDUHDQGFRPSXWHUVRIWZDUHLQGXVWULHVVXJJHVWV YDULRXVOHVVRQVIRUQDWLRQVVXFKDV&KLQDWKDWDUHIROORZLQJLQ-DSDQ·VIRRWVWHSV 6WDWHVXSSRUWIRUHGXFDWLRQDVWURQJVFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG VWURQJFRKHUHQWSROLFLHVWKDWVXSSRUWGRPHVWLFÀUPVZKLOHEXIIHULQJWKHPIURP WKHIXOOEUXQWRILQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPSHWLWLRQDUHVRPHRIWKHNH\OHVVRQVWREHGUDZQ 3UHYHQWLQJ VHULRXV UHOLDQFH RQ IRUHLJQ FDSLWDO DQG DWWDFKLQJ VWULQJV WR IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQWDUHDOVRHVVHQWLDODVLVIRUPXODWLQJSROLFLHVLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKWKH SULYDWH VHFWRU WR DVVXUH WKDW WKH\ DUH PDUNHW FRQIRUPLQJ &KLQD FDQ OHDUQ QRW RQO\IURP-DSDQ·VVXFFHVVHVLQWKHVVDQGVEXWDOVRIURPWKH SUREOHPVFDXVHGE\LWVFOLQJLQJWRREVROHWHLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGSROLFLHVLQWKHV DQGV :KLOH-DSDQKDVEHHQDODWHOLEHUDOL]HULWKDVEHJXQWRRSHQXSVLJQLÀFDQWO\LQ WKHSDVWÀYHWRVHYHQ\HDUV7KHVWDWHLVHQFRXUDJLQJIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWHYHQLQ VWUDWHJLFLQGXVWULHV7KHVWDWHZHOFRPHVLPSRUWVRIFULWLFDOSURGXFWVWKDW-DSDQHVH ÀUPVGRQRWPDNHZHOOVXFKDVLQVRPHNH\QLFKHVLQWKHVRIWZDUHDQGLQWHUQHW PDUNHWV7KHJRYHUQPHQWSXUFKDVHVPRUHIRUHLJQSURGXFWVWKDQLQWKHSDVW7KH VWDWHDQGFRUSRUDWLRQVKDYHRSHQO\DFNQRZOHGJHGWKDWGRPHVWLFÀUPVFDQQRWEH VXFFHVVIXODWHYHU\WKLQJ²WKDWGHSHQGLQJRQIRUHLJQÀUPVIRUFHUWDLQSURGXFWV WKRXJKQRWGHVLUDEOHLVDFFHSWDEOHDQGUHDOLVWLFJLYHQ-DSDQ·VFRUSRUDWHVWUHQJWKV DQGZHDNQHVVHV7KHUHLVDJURZLQJXQGHUVWDQGLQJWKDWVWDWHWDUJHWLQJGRHVQRW ZRUNZKHQWDUJHWVDUHXQFOHDUDQGWHFKQRORJLFDOFKDQJHLVUDSLGDQGXQSUHGLFWDEOH 7KHUHLVDOVRDFRQVHQVXVWKDW-DSDQQHHGVWRUHO\PRUHRQPDUNHWIRUFHVWKDQLQ WKHSDVW6WDWHDQGFRUSRUDWHOHDGHUVDUHDFXWHO\DZDUHRIWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIPRELOH ODERUPHULWZDJHV\VWHPVYHQWXUHFDSLWDODQGYLEUDQWXQLYHUVLW\²FRUSRUDWHUHODWLRQV 6WLOOWKHUHLVQRHYLGHQFHWRVXJJHVWWKDW-DSDQLVHPEUDFLQJPDUNHWV1ROHDG-
Anchordoguy HUVHVSRXVHFRQYHUJHQFHZLWK86VW\OHPDUNHWEDVHGFDSLWDOLVP7HFKQRORJLFDO DXWRQRP\ UHPDLQV D FRUH QDWLRQDO REMHFWLYH:KLOH WKH VWDWH ZHOFRPHV IRUHLJQ WHFKQRORJ\DVDQHFHVVDU\HYLOLWVWLOOWULHVWRPLQLPL]HIRUHLJQLQÁXHQFHRYHUWKH GRPHVWLFPDUNHW -DSDQZLOOUHPDLQDUHOXFWDQWODWHOLEHUDOL]HULQWHFKQRORJ\IRUWKHIRUHVHHDEOH IXWXUH7KHVWDWHDQGÀUPVZLOOXVHPDUNHWIRUFHVZKHQWKH\DUHGHHPHGDSSURSULDWHEXWPDUNHWVZLOOFRQWLQXHWREHPDQDJHGRUPLVPDQDJHGWKRXJKWRDOHVVHU GHJUHHWKDQLQWKHSDVW'RPHVWLFSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFLQVWLWXWLRQVZLOOFRQWLQXH WRKLQGHUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ7KHUHVLPSO\LVQRWDODUJHHQRXJKFRQVWLWXHQF\IDYRULQJ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH WHFKQRORJ\ ÀHOG &RQFHUQV DERXW FRPSHQVDWLQJ ORVHUVDQGDGYDQFLQJFRUSRUDWHZLQQHUVZLOOFRQWLQXHWRGRPLQDWHPXFKRIVWDWH DQGLQGXVWU\SROLFLHVIRUWKHIRUHVHHDEOHIXWXUH
Notes 6HHWKHZRUNVLQWKHZLGHUÀHOGRILQGXVWULDOSROLF\VXFKDV3HPSHO -RKQVRQ $PVGHQ $QFKRUGRJX\ :DGH 3HNNDQHQ DQG &DOORQ 7KHIROORZLQJGUDZVRQ$QFKRUGRJX\ $OVRLQWHUYLHZVZLWKDKLJKOHYHOIRUPHU177RIÀFLDO1RYHPEHUDQGD .HLGDQUHQRIÀFLDO-XO\ $OVR1LNNHL.RP\ŗQLNHLVKRQ0DUFKSS²DQG0DUFKS DQGLQWHUYLHZVZLWKDQ037RIÀFLDO2FWREHUDQGZLWKD&RPPXQLFDWLRQV ,QGXVWU\$VVRFLDWLRQRI-DSDQRIÀFLDO1RYHPEHU $OVRGLVFXVVLRQZLWKD6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\$JHQF\RIÀFLDO2FWREHU DQG LQWHUYLHZV ZLWK D IRUPHU )XMLWVX RIÀFLDO 1RYHPEHU D IRUPHU 037 RIÀFLDO1RYHPEHUDQGDIRUPHUKHDGRI0,7,·V,3$2FWREHU ,QWHUYLHZV ZLWK WZR 03+37 RIÀFLDOV LQ FKDUJH RI WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV SROLF\ RQH RQ-XO\DQGRQHRQ-XQHZLWKDFDELQHWOHYHORIÀFLDOLQYROYHGLQ LQWHUQHWSROLF\-XO\DQGZLWKDKLJKOHYHOUHVHDUFKHUDWDQ177JURXSÀUP -XO\ ,QWHUYLHZZLWKDKLJKOHYHOUHVHDUFKHUDWDQ177JURXSÀUP-XO\DQGZLWK DQ03+37RIÀFLDO-XO\ ,QWHUYLHZVZLWKDGLUHFWRUDQGDGYLVRURIWKH-DSDQ(OHFWURQLFV,QGXVWU\3URPRWLRQ $VVRFLDWLRQ IRUPHUO\ RI 0,7, 1RYHPEHU DQRWKHU IRUPHU 0,7, RIÀFLDO 1RYHPEHUWKHKHDGRIWKH177ODERUDWRU\'HFHPEHUD'LUHFWRU DWWKH,QGXVWULDO%DQNRI-DSDQ'HFHPEHUDQGWKHPDQDJLQJGLUHFWRURIWKH /RQJ7HUP&UHGLW%DQNRI-DSDQ'HFHPEHU 8QOHVVRWKHUZLVHLQGLFDWHGWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQGUDZVRQ$QFKRUGRJX\ $OVRLQWHUYLHZVZLWKWKH'LUHFWRURI,3$1RYHPEHUDQGD)XMLWVXPDQDJHU 'HFHPEHU $OVR LQWHUYLHZV ZLWK YDULRXV SHRSOH LQYROYHG LQ DQG NQRZOHGJHDEOH DERXW WKHVH SURMHFWV-XO\DQG-XO\
Chinese technonationalism $XWRQRP\DQGVHFXULW\LQWKH ZRUOGHFRQRP\ Adam Segal
$OWKRXJK -DSDQ LV RIWHQ FLWHG DV WKH SDUDGLJPDWLF FDVH RI WHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVP &KLQHVH SROLF\PDNHUV KDYH DOVR YLHZHG D WHFKQRORJLFDOO\ DGYDQFHG HFRQRP\ DVDQHVVHQWLDOFRPSRQHQWRI´FRPSUHKHQVLYHQDWLRQDOSRZHUµDQGWKXVFULWLFDOWR DFKLHYLQJWKHLUORQJWHUPJRDORIUHVWRULQJ&KLQDWRLWVULJKWIXOSODFHRQWKHZRUOG VWDJH6LQFHWKHVORJDQ´ULFKFRXQWU\DQGVWURQJDUP\µfuguo, qiangbing ZDV FRLQHGLQWKHQLQHWHHQWKFHQWXU\&KLQHVHHOLWHVKDYHKHOGWKHWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVW EHOLHI WKDW QDWLRQDO VHFXULW\ LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WHFKQRORJLFDO FDSDELOLWLHV :KLOH &KLQD·VFXUUHQWOHDGHUVVWLOOYLHZWHFKQRORJ\DVDVHFXULW\SULRULW\WKH\DUHQRZ OHVV FHUWDLQ DERXW KRZ WHFKQRORJLFDO LQQRYDWLRQ VKRXOG EH RUJDQL]HG DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU DERXW ZKDW UROH VWDWH DQG SULYDWH DFWRUV VKRXOG SOD\ LQ WKH QDWLRQDO VFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\6 7 V\VWHP 5LFKDUG6DPXHOV GHÀQHVWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVPLQ-DSDQ´DVWKHEHOLHIWKDW WHFKQRORJ\ LV D IXQGDPHQWDO HOHPHQW LQ QDWLRQDO VHFXULW\ WKDW LW PXVW EH LQGLJHQL]HGGLIIXVHGDQGQXUWXUHGLQRUGHUWRPDNHDQDWLRQULFKDQGVWURQJµ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ÁDWHWKHLGHRORJ\RIWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVPZLWK WKH SROLF\ LQVWUXPHQWV RI VWDWLVP
Segal ´GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHµPD\EHWKHVSLGHULQWKHQDWLRQDOZHERIWHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQWEXWWKHFRQQHFWLRQVDQGPXWXDOWUXVWDPRQJFRQDWLRQDOVGRQRW UHTXLUHVWDWHVDQFWLRQ 0RUHRYHU ZH VKRXOG EH FDUHIXO DERXW IROORZLQJ WKH ORJLF RI HTXDWLQJ WHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVP ZLWK WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO VWDWH LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ 7KDW LV WKH ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI D IRUPHUO\ VWDWHOHG WHFKQRORJ\ V\VWHP GRHV QRW QHFHVVDULO\UHSUHVHQWWKHHQGRIWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVP 'XULQJWKHSDVWWZHQW\ÀYH\HDUVUHIRUPVKDYHJUDGXDOO\PRYHG&KLQDWRZDUG DPRUHRSHQDQGPDUNHWRULHQWHGHFRQRP\7KHVL]HRIWKHHFRQRP\GRPLQDWHG E\WKHSXEOLFVHFWRUKDVUDSLGO\GHFUHDVHGDQGWKHVKDUHRILQGXVWULDORXWSXWSURGXFHGE\VWDWHRZQHGHQWHUSULVHV62(V KDVGHFOLQHGIURPSHUFHQWLQ WRXQGHUSHUFHQWLQ,QSDUDOOHOZLWKWKHUHIRUPVLQWKHODUJHUHFRQRP\ &KLQDKDVVLPLODUO\OLEHUDOL]HGLWVVWDWH6 7V\VWHP3ROLF\PDNHUVKDYHJUDGXDOO\UHSODFHGDVWDWHOHGDQGKLJKO\FHQWUDOL]HGPRGHORIWHFKQRORJLFDOLQQRYDWLRQ ZLWK D PRUH ÁH[LEOH DQG RSHQ V\VWHP 2YHU WLPH WKH VWDWH·V SUHGRPLQDQW UROH LQ GLUHFWLQJ WHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQW KDV JUDGXDOO\ EHHQ GHHPSKDVL]HG ZKLOH JUHDWHUHPSKDVLVKDVEHHQSODFHGRQWKHUROHRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOWHFKQRORJLFDOHQWUHSUHQHXU &HQWUDO SODQQLQJ KDV EHHQ VFDOHG EDFN WKH OHYHO RI VXSSRUW IRU 62(V FXUWDLOHGDQGUHVWULFWLRQVRQIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVOLIWHG 7KHFHQWUDODUJXPHQWRIWKLVFKDSWHULVWKDWDOWKRXJKWKH&KLQHVHDUHFXUUHQWO\ UHOD[LQJVWDWHFRQWURODQGDOORZLQJIRUHLJQDQGQRQVWDWHDFWRUVWRSOD\DQHYHQ ODUJHUUROHLQWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\WKHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI&KLQHVHWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\ GRHVQRWVLJQDOWKHHQGRIWKHWHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVWSURMHFW&KLQHVHOHDGHUVPD\EH OLEHUDOL]LQJ WKH VWDWHFHQWULF YHUVLRQ RI WHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVP EXW %HLMLQJ VWLOO KDV SURPLQHQWVHFXULW\FRQFHUQVWKDWGHÀQHDQGVKDSHWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKH6 7V\VWHP 7KLV FKDSWHU XVHV WKH FRQFHSW RI &KLQHVH WHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVP WR UHIHU WR D SROLF\RULHQWDWLRQWRZDUGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRILQGLJHQRXVWHFKQRORJLFDOFDSDELOLWLHVDQGHYHQWXDOO\DXWRQRP\DQGLQGHSHQGHQFHIURPRWKHUVWDWHVHVSHFLDOO\WKH 8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG-DSDQ1DXJKWRQDQG6HJDO 7KUHHWHQVLRQVGHÀ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² WHPSRUDULO\ DQGWDFWLFDOO\²UHO\LQJRQIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWDQGWHFKQRORJLFDOH[FKDQJH7KH ORQJWHUPJRDOUHPDLQVEHLQJDEOHWRVHWWHFKQRORJLFDOVWDQGDUGVLQGHSHQGHQWO\RI -DSDQDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVEXWWKHVKRUWWHUPPHDQVPD\EHFROODERUDWLRQZLWK WKHVHVDPHWZRFRXQWULHV
Chinese technonationalism 'XULQJWKHSURFHVVRIFUHDWLQJDQGLPSOHPHQWLQJWHFKQRORJ\SROLFLHVLQ&KLQD WZRIDFWRUVSXOOLQGLIIHUHQWGLUHFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKHSROHVRIJUHDWHUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ DQGFRQWLQXHGVWDWHLQWHUYHQWLRQWKHJHRJUDSKLFVL]HRIWKHFRXQWU\DQGVHFXULW\ FRQFHUQV:LWKLWVYDVWVL]H&KLQDFDQSXUVXHDQDVVRUWPHQWRIGHYHORSPHQWVWUDWHJLHV WKDW LQYROYH D UDQJH RI DFWRUV /RFDOLWLHV PD\ UXQ FRPSHWLQJ WHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQW SURJUDPV RU H[SORLW RSSRUWXQLWLHV LPSOLFLW LQ QDWLRQDO SROLFLHV LQ ZD\VWKDWDUHQRWQHFHVVDULO\FRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHVSLULWRIQDWLRQDOSROLF\6HJDO &KLQDFDQPDLQWDLQWZRRUPRUHVHSDUDWHFRPSHWLQJDQGQRWQHFHVVDULO\LQWHJUDWHGDSSURDFKHVWRZDUGWHFKQRORJ\DFTXLVLWLRQ%HLMLQJ6KDQJKDLDQG 6KHQ]KHQIRUH[DPSOHDOOFRPSHWHWRDWWUDFW\RXQJHQWUHSUHQHXUVDQGVRIWZDUH FRPSDQLHVLQRUGHUWREH&KLQD·V´6LOLFRQ9DOOH\µ6KDQJKDLUHFHQWO\DQQRXQFHG LW LV EXLOGLQJ WZHQW\ 5 ' FHQWHUV DQG WHQ ELRWHFKQRORJ\ FHQWHUV DQG %HLMLQJ UHVSRQGHGWKDWLWZRXOGFUHDWHD´PHGLFLQHYDOOH\µSRSXODWHGE\VL[W\QHZPHGLFLQHDQGELRWHFKQRORJ\HQWHUSULVHV´%HLMLQJWR%XLOG&KLQD·V/DUJHVW0HGLFDO %LRWHFK=RQHµChinaOnline0D\ :LWKGLYHUVHRXWFRPHVLQGLIIHUHQW ORFDOLWLHV FHQWUDO SROLF\PDNHUV FDQ FKRRVH DPRQJ H[LVWLQJ SROLF\ H[SHULPHQWV5HJLRQDOGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQWKXVDLGVSROLF\LQQRYDWLRQDQGWKHUHVXOWVDUHD QDWLRQDO6 7V\VWHPWKDWLVDPRVDLFRIORFDOSURMHFWVWKDWYDU\ERWKWHPSRUDOO\ DQGJHRJUDSKLFDOO\ 7KLVPRGHORISROLF\LQQRYDWLRQLVYHU\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKDWWUDGLWLRQDOO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWK´ODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUVµ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zhuguan danwei &HQWUDODQGUHJLRQDOUHVHDUFKLQVWLWXWHV62(VDQGORFDOJRYHUQPHQWVDOOSOD\DVXSHUYLVRU\UROH$OORIWKHVHDUHVWDWHRUTXDVLVWDWHDFWRUVEXW WKH\DUHDOHVVPRQROLWKLFPXFKPRUHGLIIXVHO\GLVSHUVHGVHWRILQVWLWXWLRQVWKDQ VXJJHVWHGE\WKHH[SHULHQFHRI-DSDQDQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHOLWHUDWXUH (YHQZLWKGHYROXWLRQDQGUHJLRQDOGHYHORSPHQWWKHUHDUHVWLOOVLJQLÀFDQWSUHVVXUHVIRUWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWWRDFWOLNHDGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHXQGHUFHUWDLQ FLUFXPVWDQFHV &KLQD·V YXOQHUDELOLW\ ERWK SURPRWHV DQG LQKLELWV ODWH OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ,QRUGHUWRFRPSHWHLQWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\&KLQD·VOHDGHUVQRZEHOLHYHWKDW WKHVWDWHPXVWUHOLQTXLVKVRPHFRQWURORYHUWHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQWLQRUGHUWR PDLQWDLQ VHFXULW\ WKH VWDWH PXVW FRQWLQXH WR EH LQYROYHG LQ VRPH FULWLFDO WHFKQRORJLHV 'HVSLWH JURZWK LQ WKH PLOLWDU\ EXGJHW DQG WKH SXUFKDVH RI DGYDQFHG ZHDSRQV V\VWHPV IURP DEURDG &KLQHVH PLOLWDU\ FDSDELOLWLHV DUH VWLOO UHODWLYHO\
Segal OLPLWHG7HQVHUHODWLRQVZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV-DSDQDQG7DLZDQGXULQJPRVWRI WKHVNHSWGHIHQVHUHODWHGWHFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWDWWKHWRSRIWKHOLVWRI QDWLRQDOSULRULWLHVDQGVRWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWVWLOOSOD\VDODUJHUROHLQVHWWLQJ WKHSDUDPHWHUVRIWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\$UHDVGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRVHFXULW\²DQGWKHVH DUHH[SDQGLQJEH\RQGWUDGLWLRQDOPLOLWDU\WHFKQRORJLHVWRWKHFLYLOLDQHFRQRP\ ²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ÀUVW,GLVFXVVWKHUHDVRQVIRUWKHVHOHFWLRQRI,7 DQGELRWHFKQRORJ\DVFDVHV7KHQH[WWKUHHVHFWLRQVIROORZWKHUHIRUPVRIWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\IURPWRWKHODWHVIURPWKHHDUO\WRWKHODWHVDQGIURP WKHODWHVXQWLO 7KHJHQHUDOGLUHFWLRQRIWKHVHUHIRUPVKDVEHHQWRZDUGJUHDWHUOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ ²WKHUROHRIWKH62(VDQGVWDWHGLUHFWHGUHVHDUFKLQVWLWXWHVKDVJUDGXDOO\EHHQ UHGXFHGDQGWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWKDVEHHQRSHQHGWRDJUHDWHUUDQJHDQGQXPEHU RIIRUHLJQFRUSRUDWLRQV:KLOHFRQFHUQVDERXW&KLQHVHVHFXULW\DQGWHFKQRORJLFDOFDSDELOLWLHVZHUHWKHEDFNJURXQGFDXVHRIUHIRUPWKHVHVXFFHVVLYHZDYHVRI SROLFLHVZHUHFUHDWHGLQUHVSRQVHWRWKHSHUFHLYHGGHÀFLHQFLHVDQGIDLOXUHVRIWKHLU SUHGHFHVVRUV2QFHFHQWUDOSROLF\PDNHUVEHFDPHDZDUHWKDWVRPHWKLQJZDVQRW ZRUNLQJWKH\ORRNHGIRUQHZZD\VWRRUJDQL]H6 7$VLQGLFDWHGE\WKHRSHUDWLRQDOLQGLFDWRUVRIWHFKQRORJLFDOOLEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ7DEOHWKHVWDWHKDVUHGXFHG UHVWULFWLRQVRQWHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHUUHGXFHGWKHJRYHUQPHQW·VUHOLDQFHRQSURFXUHPHQWIURP62(VDQGDOORZHGIRUHLJQÀUPVWRIRUPMRLQWYHQWXUHVDQGSURGXFH IRUWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWLQUHWXUQIRUWHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHU7KHVHOLEHUDOL]LQJPHDVXUHVKDYHEHHQLQVWLWXWLRQDOL]HGLQDQXPEHURINH\SROLFLHVWKH'HFLVLRQ &RQFHUQLQJWKH5HIRUPRIWKH6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\0DQDJHPHQW6\VWHPWKH 7RUFK3ODQWKH'HFLVLRQRQ$FFHOHUDWLQJ6 7'HYHORSPHQWDQGD ODWH6WDWH&RXQFLOGHFLVLRQRQWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\ 7KHIRXUWKDQGÀIWKVHFWLRQVRIWKHFKDSWHUORRNVDWWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIVHFXULW\ FKDOOHQJHVDQGWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\LQ&KLQDPRUHFORVHO\)LQDOO\WKHFKDSWHUHQGV E\ORRNLQJDW&KLQD·VDFFHVVLRQLQWRWKH:RUOG7UDGH2UJDQL]DWLRQ:72 ,QWKH ,7VHFWRULQSDUWLFXODULPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI:72FRPPLWPHQWVKDVEHHQXQHYHQLQ WKHDUHDVRI,35SURWHFWLRQUHJXODWRU\WUDQVSDUHQF\WHFKQRORJ\VWDQGDUGVDQG QDWLRQDO WUHDWPHQW (YHQ WKRXJK WKH FHQWUDO OHDGHUVKLS KDV FRPPLWWHG WR:72
Chinese technonationalism LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ WKH ODFN RI FRRUGLQDWLQJ FDSDELOLWLHV DW WKH FHQWHU WKH SXUVXLW RIORFDOLQWHUHVWVDQGWKHPHUJHURIUHJXODWRU\DQGPDUNHWIXQFWLRQVLQWKHVDPH LQVWLWXWLRQVKDYHFUHDWHGVHULRXVEDUULHUVWRLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ0RUHRYHUDVUHIRUPV FRQWLQXHHFRQRPLFDFWRUVKDYHPRELOL]HGWRSURWHFWWKHLUPDUNHWVIURPJUHDWHU OLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGFRPSHWLWLRQ :KLOHLQVWLWXWLRQDOIDFWRUVJHQHUDWHWKHLURZQORJLFOLPLWLQJLPSOHPHQWDWLRQLQ ,7VHFWRUVWKHFUHDWLRQRIQHZEDUULHUVWRPDUNHWHQWU\OLNHWHFKQLFDOVWDQGDUGVLV DOVRPRWLYDWHGE\&KLQD·VGHVLUHWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHGRPHVWLFHFRQRP\PRYHVXS WKHSURGXFWF\FOHDQGGRHVQRWVLPSO\UHPDLQWKHORZWHFKQRORJ\ODERULQWHQVLYH PDQXIDFWXULQJZRUNVKRSWRWKHZRUOG'RPHVWLFUHIRUPVDQGJUHDWHULQWHJUDWLRQ ZLWK WKH ZRUOG HFRQRP\ KDYH LPSURYHG &KLQD·V EDVLF LQQRYDWLYH FDSDFLW\ EXW &KLQHVHÀUPVUHPDLQIROORZHUVQRWOHDGHUVLQGHYHORSLQJQHZWHFKQRORJLHV7KH H[SDQVLRQRIIRUHLJQWHFKQRORJ\SURGXFHUVLQ&KLQDWKDWLVRFFXUULQJDIWHU:72 DFFHVVLRQZLOOEURDGHQWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUWHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHUEXWLWPD\DOVR LQFUHDVHWKHGHSHQGHQFHRIGRPHVWLFSURGXFHUVRQLQWHUQDWLRQDOSURGXFWLRQQHWZRUNV6XWWPHLHUDQG
Information industries and biotechnology ,QIRUPDWLRQ WHFKQRORJLHV DQG ELRWHFKQRORJ\ ZHUH FKRVHQ WR LOOXVWUDWH WKH FKDOOHQJHVDQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVIDFLQJ&KLQHVHWHFKQRORJ\SROLF\IRUWKUHHUHDVRQV )LUVWWKHVHWZRVHFWRUVDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\LPSRUWDQWWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPSHWLWLYHQHVV DQG WR WKH GRPHVWLF HFRQRP\ $V RQH &KLQHVH QHZVSDSHU DUWLFOH QRWHG ´7KH JUHDWHVW GLIÀFXOW\ WKDW DOO H[SRUWRULHQWHG HQWHUSULVHV LQ RXU FRXQWU\ IDFH LV WR SURGXFH WKH ULJKW SURGXFWV ORZ ODERU FRVWV ZLOO QRW ODVW IRUHYHU &RPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQSURGXFWVLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWLVLQIDFWWHFKQRORJLFDOFRPSHWLWLRQµ ´+HDGLQJIRUWKH:RUOGE\5HO\LQJRQ6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\µ Renmin Ribao 'HFHPEHULQForeign Broadcast Information Service – China'HFHPEHU ² 7KHGRPHVWLF,7PDUNHWZDVZRUWK86ELOOLRQLQ QLQHWLPHVODUJHUWKDQDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHVDQGZDVSURMHFWHGWRUHDFK 86ELOOLRQE\WKHHQGRI'XULQJWKHVWKH,7VHFWRUUHJLVWHUHGWKH IDVWHVWJURZWKUDWHVDPRQJWKHFRXQWU\·VLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUV%\DWWKHHQGRI WKH7HQWK)LYH
Segal RWKHUOHDGLQJGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVKDVLQYHVWHGPXFKPRUHLQELRWHFKQRORJ\DQG DJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWV,Q&KLQDZDVWKHÀUVWFRXQWU\LQWKHZRUOGWRJURZ D JHQHWLFDOO\ HQJLQHHUHG FURS FRPPHUFLDOO\ DQG &KLQD DORQJ ZLWK WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV-DSDQ*HUPDQ\)UDQFHDQGWKH8.ZDVLQYROYHGLQPDSSLQJ'1$LQ WKH+XPDQ*HQRPH3URMHFW&KLQDDFFRXQWHGIRUSHUFHQWRI´JOREDOSDWHQWLQJ DFWLYLW\LQWKHÀHOGVRIDGYDQFHGELRORJ\µGXULQJWKHÀUVWKDOIRIVHFRQG RQO\WRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVSHUFHQW Nikkei Weekly-XO\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ VLQFH PDQ\ RI WKH WHFKQRORJLHV ZLWKLQ WKHVH VHFWRUV KDYH ORZHU EDUULHUV WR HQWU\ QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO ÀUPV FDQ HQWHU DQG FRPSHWH ZLWK PRUH HVWDEOLVKHGVWDWHDFWRUV&HQWUDOOHDGHUVDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\DZDUHWKDWSULYDWHÀUPV ZHUHEHKLQGWKHWHFKQRORJLFDOUHYROXWLRQLQWKHVHWZRVHFWRUVLQWKH:HVWGXULQJ WKHVDQGVDQGLQRUGHUQRWWRPLVVRXWRQWKHQH[WZDYHRILQQRYDWLRQKDYHHQFRXUDJHGQRQJRYHUQPHQWDOHQWHUSULVHVWRSOD\DELJJHUUROHLQWKH QDWLRQDOHFRQRP\7KHLQFUHDVHGYDOXHSURGXFHGE\QRQVWDWHDFWRUVIRUH[DPSOH DFFRXQWHGIRUSHUFHQWRIWKHWRWDOLQKLJKWHFKQRORJ\LQGXVWULHVFRPSDUHGZLWK WKHSHUFHQWVKDUHIRU62(VLQ%\WKHHQGRIWKHVDPH\HDUWKHUHZHUH PRUH WKDQ QRQVWDWH KLJKWHFK FRPSDQLHV LQ &KLQD ZLWK DOPRVW PLOOLRQHPSOR\HHV´1RQ6WDWH(FRQRP\3OD\VD%LJ5ROHµChina Daily-DQXDU\ 7KLV LV QRW WUXH DFURVV WKH ERDUG WKH PDQXIDFWXUH RI LQWHJUDWHG FLUFXLWV IRU H[DPSOHUHTXLUHVDKXJHLQYHVWPHQWXSIURQWDQGVR62(VLQMRLQWYHQWXUHVZLWK IRUHLJQFRPSDQLHVSOD\WKHGRPLQDQWUROH%XWIRURWKHUW\SHVRIWHFKQRORJLHV VXFKDVVRIWZDUHVPDOOHUVFDOHVRISURGXFWLRQDQGORZHUVWDUWXSFRVWVWUDQVODWH LQWRORZHUEDUULHUVWRHQWU\IRUQRQJRYHUQPHQWDOÀUPV,QWKH,7LQGXVWU\VRPH RI WKH PRVW VXFFHVVIXO FRPSDQLHV DUH QRQJRYHUQPHQWDO HQWHUSULVHV VXFK DV /HQRYR6WRQHDQG)RXQGHU0RUHRYHUWKHVHVHFWRUVDUHIDLUO\QHZDQGWKHPDUNHWLVUHODWLYHO\IUHHRIFRPSHWLWLRQIURP62(VDQGWKHEXUHDXFUDWLFUHJXODWLRQRI LQGXVWULDOPLQLVWULHV 6WLOO LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW WKHVH DUH UHODWLYH VXFFHVVHV 3URSHUW\ ULJKWV UHPDLQ XQGHÀQHG YHQWXUH FDSLWDO VFDUFH DQG WKH OHJDO IUDPHZRUN XQGHUGHYHORSHG7KH86PLOOLRQ&KLQDVSHQWRQELRWHFKQRORJ\UHVHDUFKLQZDV PXFKPRUHWKDQWKDWVSHQWRQVLPLODUSURJUDPVLQ%UD]LODQG,QGLDDERXW86 PLOOLRQ (YHQLIWKH&KLQHVHDFKLHYHWKHLUJRDORI86PLOOLRQLQYHVWHGLQ ELRWHFKQRORJ\UHVHDUFKLQLWZLOOEHVLJQLÀFDQWO\OHVVWKDQWKH86ELOOLRQ VSHQWE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV 7KLUG DQG ÀQDOO\ WKHVH WZR VHFWRUV DUH GLUHFWO\ OLQNHG WR VHFXULW\ FRQFHUQV LQWKHPLQGVRI&KLQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVDQGSODQQHUV7KHSHUFHLYHGGRPLQDQFH RIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVLQERWKVHFWRUVLVVHHQWRFUHDWHLPSRUWDQWWKUHDWVWRQDWLRQDO VRYHUHLJQW\ DQG D GLVFXVVLRQ RQ WKH QDWXUH RI ´HFRQRPLF VHFXULW\µ KDV EHHQ SURPLQHQWLQ&KLQHVHPHGLDRYHUWKHODVWVHYHUDO\HDUV+RX 7KHGRPLQDWLRQ RI 0LFURVRIW KDV UDLVHG FRQFHUQV DERXW LQIRUPDWLRQ VHFXULW\ WKH SUHVHQFH RIPXOWLQDWLRQDOVVXFKDV0RQVDQWRLQYROYHGLQSURGXFLQJJHQHWLFDOO\PRGLÀHG VHHGV LV FHQWUDO WR TXHVWLRQV DERXW IRRG VHFXULW\ 7KHVH FRQFHUQV WHPSHU DQG PRGLI\WKHJHQHUDOWUHQGWRZDUGJUHDWHUHFRQRPLFOLEHUDOL]DWLRQDQGDIIHFWWKH H[WHQWWRZKLFK&KLQDKDVDELGHGE\WKHWHUPVRIWKH:72
Chinese technonationalism 7KHUHDUHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWZRVHFWRUVWKDWDUHZRUWKNHHSLQJLQPLQG 7KHFKURQRORJ\GLIIHUVZLWKWKHUHIRUPVLQWKHELRWHFKQRORJ\VHFWRUIROORZLQJ DQG DSSDUHQWO\ LQÁ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ÀUPVKDYHWHQGHGWRWUDQVIHUROGHUJHQHUDWLRQV RIWHFKQRORJ\6RPHKDYHWDNHQDGYDQWDJHRIJDLQVLQWUDQVJHQLFSODQWWHFKQRORJ\ DQG DUH XVLQJ &KLQHVH ODERUDWRULHV IRU WKH PRUH ODERULQWHQVLYH ZRUN EXW IRUHLJQÀUPVKDYHWULHGWRLQVXODWHPRUHDGYDQFHGSURFHVVHVDQGHTXLSPHQWIURP GRPHVWLFSDUWQHUV
The beginning stages 7KH UHIRUPV RI 6 7 LQVWLWXWLRQV EHJXQ LQ ZHUH D PDMRU VKLIW DZD\ IURP WKH KLJKO\ FHQWUDOL]HG VWDWHOHG V\VWHP RI WKH SDVW 3ROLF\PDNHUV IRFXVHG RQ WZR SURFHVVHV WR UDLVH &KLQD·V WHFKQRORJLFDO OHYHO WKH LPSRUW DQG GLIIXVLRQ RI DGYDQFHG WHFKQRORJLHV IURP DEURDG DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ LQGHSHQGHQW GRPHVWLFFDSDELOLW\WRGHYHORSQHZWHFKQRORJLHV.H\WHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQW SODQVIRUWKLVSHULRGZHUHWKH'HFLVLRQWKH3ODQDQGWKH7RUFK3ODQ 7KH HDUO\ V DOVR VDZ WKH JURZWK RI QRQVWDWH KLJKWHFKQRORJ\ HQWHUSULVHV PDQ\RIWKHPVSLQRIIVIURPWKH&KLQHVH$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV&$6 ,QWKHUHDOPRIWHFKQRORJ\LPSRUWVWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWGHFHQWUDOL]HGFRQWURORYHUVRPHSURMHFWVWRWKHORFDOOHYHO/RFDORIÀFLDOVFRXOGDSSURYHLQGLYLGXDO FDVHVRIIRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWEHORZDJLYHQYDOXHFHLOLQJ EXWIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUV ZHUHJHQHUDOO\GHQLHGDFFHVVWRWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWZHUHUHTXLUHGWRH[SRUWDQG KDG WR EDODQFH WKHLU RZQ IRUHLJQ H[FKDQJH QHHGV 01&V ZHUH DOORZHG DFFHVV WRWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWRQO\DIWHURIÀFLDOVGHWHUPLQHGWKDWSURGXFWLRQLQYROYHG WHFKQRORJLHVWKDW&KLQDQHHGHGDQGFRXOGQRWFUHDWHDORQH 2QFHLGHQWLÀHG01&VZHUHWREHSDUWQHUHGZLWKVWURQJGRPHVWLF62(VDQG JRYHUQPHQWDJHQFLHV²WKH6WDWH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQLQSDUWLFXODU²SOD\HGDQ LPSRUWDQWUROHLQEURNHULQJWHFKQRORJ\LPSRUWSURMHFWV-LDQJ *RYHUQPHQW RIÀFLDOV XVHG WKHLU SRVLWLRQ DV EURNHU DQG SURPLVHV RI DFFHVV WR WKH GRPHVWLF PDUNHWWRDUUDQJHFRPSHWLQJELGVDPRQJGLIIHUHQW01&VLQDQHIIRUWWRSLFND VLQJOHIRUHLJQÀUPWKDWZRXOGVHUYHDVWKHPDLQWHFKQRORJ\SDUWQHU ,Q GRPHVWLF WHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQW SROLF\ &KLQD DOVR GHFHQWUDOL]HG ,Q 0DUFKWKH3DUW\LVVXHGWKH´'HFLVLRQRIWKH&HQWUDO&RPPLWWHHRIWKH&&3 &RQFHUQLQJ WKH 5HIRUP RI WKH 6FLHQFH DQG7HFKQRORJ\ 0DQDJHPHQW 6\VWHPµ ZKLFKUHIRUPHGWKHV\VWHPRIIXQGDOORFDWLRQDQGFXWVWDWHEXGJHWVIRUUHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWHV H[SDQGHG WHFKQRORJ\ PDUNHWV DQG HQFRXUDJHG FRRSHUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ UHVHDUFKDQGSURGXFWLRQXQLWV6DLFK 7KH'HFLVLRQDOVRHQFRXUDJHG
Segal XQLYHUVLWLHVDQGLQGHSHQGHQWUHVHDUFKLQVWLWXWHVWRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHEURDGHQLQJRIWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIDFFHSWHGRZQHUVKLSVWUXFWXUHVDQGODXQFKWKHLURZQ FRPPHUFLDOYHQWXUHV:LWKEXGJHWUHGXFWLRQVRIDOPRVWSHUFHQWEUDQFKHVRI WKH &$6 HVWDEOLVKHG GR]HQV RI VSLQRII HQWHUSULVHV &$6 W\SLFDOO\ DGYDQFHG FDSLWDOWRWKHVHHQWHUSULVHVWREHUHSDLGRQFHWKHFRPSDQ\EHFDPHFRPPHUFLDOO\ VXFFHVVIXO0DQ\RIWKHPRVWIDPRXVDQGVXFFHVVIXOminyingQRQJRYHUQPHQWDO HQWHUSULVHVVXFKDV/HJHQGIURP&$6DQG)RXQGHUIURP%HLMLQJ8QLYHUVLW\ZHUH IRXQGHGGXULQJWKLVWLPH 'XULQJWKHPLGV&KLQDDOVRGHYHORSHGDUDQJHRIQHZLQGLUHFWORQJWHUP SODQVIRUWKHHFRQRP\UHSODFLQJWKHROGVW\OHFHQWUDOL]HGSODQV7KH3URMHFW QDPHGIRULWVDSSURYDOGDWHRI0DUFK WDUJHWHGLQGXVWULHVLQWKHDUHDVRI ELRWHFKQRORJ\ QHZ PDWHULDOV ODVHUV HQHUJ\ LQIRUPDWLRQ URERWLFV DQG VSDFH 7KHSURJUDP²ZKLFKFRQWLQXHVWRGD\²EULQJVWRJHWKHUVSHFLDOLVWVLQPDQ\ÀHOGV RQ FURVVGLVFLSOLQDU\ SURGXFWV VXFK DV FRPSXWHU LQWHJUDWHG PDQXIDFWXULQJ V\VWHPV7KH3URMHFWLQWURGXFHGIRUWKHÀUVWWLPHWKHFRQFHSWRISHHUUHYLHZDQG DPL[HGPHWKRGRISURMHFWVHOHFWLRQWRWHFKQRORJ\SODQVLQ&KLQDDQGUHVHDUFKHUV IRFXVHGRQSUHGRPLQDQWO\EXWQRWHQWLUHO\ FLYLOLDQWHFKQRORJLHV 7KH7RUFK3ODQKRSHGWRGHYHORS&KLQD·VKLJKWHFKQRORJ\PDQXIDFWXULQJ FDSDELOLWLHVE\IRFXVLQJRQ5 'DQGWKHFRPPHUFLDOL]DWLRQRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHV LQ62(V5DWKHUWKDQKDYLQJWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWDOORFDWHIXQGVWRUHVHDUFK SURMHFWVWKH7RUFK3ODQZDVWKHÀUVWODUJH6 7SODQRULJLQDWLQJIURPWKHFHQWHU WKDWZDVQRWSUHVFULSWLYH4LQ 7KH7RUFK3ODQDOVRLQFOXGHGWKHFUHDWLRQ RIKLJKWHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQW]RQHV&KLQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVLQWHQGHGWRUHFUHDWHWKHH[SHULHQFHVRI6LOLFRQ9DOOH\5RXWHDQGRWKHUVFLHQFHSDUNVORFDOO\ WKURXJKDSROLF\RIORFDWLQJXQLYHUVLWLHVDQGKLJKWHFKQRORJ\ÀUPVLQWKHVDPH DUHDDQGFRPELQLQJUHVHDUFKDQGHGXFDWLRQZLWKSURGXFWLRQ 2QFH GHVLJQDWHG D KLJKWHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQW ]RQH VLWHV FDPH XQGHU DQ XPEUHOODRISUHIHUHQWLDOSROLFLHVWKDWFRYHUHGWD[HVÀQDQFHLPSRUWVDQGH[SRUWV SULFLQJ DQG SHUVRQQHO SROLF\ ,QGXVWULHV ORFDWHG ZLWKLQ WKH WHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQW ]RQHV ZHUH H[HPSWHG IURP LQFRPH WD[HV IRU WKH ÀUVW WKUHH \HDUV DIWHU WKHLUHVWDEOLVKPHQWIURPWKHIRXUWKWRWKHVL[WK\HDUVWD[UDWHVZHUHUHGXFHGE\ KDOI 1HZ WHFKQRORJ\ HQWHUSULVHV ZHUH DOVR H[HPSWHG IURP FRQVWUXFWLRQ WD[HV DQGLPSRUWOLFHQVHVDQGGXWLHVRQHTXLSPHQWQHHGHGIRUSURGXFWLRQXQWLOWKHVH SROLFLHVZHUHFDQFHOHGLQ 7KLVÀUVWVHWRIUHIRUPVLQWKHVZDVQRWZLWKRXWSUREOHPVRQERWKWKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO DQG GRPHVWLF VLGH (YHQ ZLWK 01&V SOD\LQJ D ODUJHU UROH LQ WKH HFRQRP\ DQG QHZ GRPHVWLF DFWRUV UHSODFLQJ SXEOLF VHFWRU RUJDQL]DWLRQV JRYHUQPHQWRIÀFLDOVEHOLHYHGWKDWWKHVWDWHQHHGHGWRPDLQWDLQDGRPLQDQWSUHVHQFH LQ WKH KLJKWHFKQRORJ\ VHFWRUV RI WKH HFRQRP\ $OWKRXJK WKH 6WDWH (FRQRPLF &RPPLVVLRQ6(& WULHGWRDFWOLNHWKH0,7,LQ-DSDQDQGFRRUGLQDWHWHFKQRORJ\ LPSRUWV WR UHQRYDWH ROGHU IDFWRULHV LW ODFNHG WKH LQVWLWXWLRQDO FDSDELOLWLHV RI LWV -DSDQHVHFRXQWHUSDUW0LQLVWULHVRIWHQFKRVHWRLPSRUWWHFKQRORJLHVIUHTXHQWO\ WKHPRVW´DGYDQFHGµWHFKQRORJLHVZLWKOLWWOHXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHWHFKQRORJLHV WKHPVHOYHVRUWKHQHHGVRISDUWLFXODUVHFWRUVZLWKLQ&KLQD'LVSXWHVEHWZHHQWKH IRUHLJQDQGGRPHVWLFSDUWQHUVSODJXHGWKHVWUDWHJ\RIVHOHFWLYHSDUWQHULQJZLWK
Chinese technonationalism 01&VDQGGHOD\HGPDQ\RIWKHELJJHVWSURMHFWVDVERWKVLGHVWULHGWRH[SORLWWKHLU SRVLWLRQV+LJKSURÀOHSURMHFWVWRLPSRUWVHPLFRQGXFWRUIDEULFDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\ IRU H[DPSOH UDQ LQWR UHSHDWHG GHOD\V 7KH UHVXOW ZDV WKDW WKH WHFKQRORJ\ JDS VHSDUDWLQJ&KLQDIURPWKHUDSLGO\DGYDQFLQJZRUOGWHFKQRORJ\IURQWLHUSUREDEO\ ZLGHQHGLQWKHDUHDRIVHPLFRQGXFWRUIDEULFDWLRQ1DXJKWRQ 7KH3URMHFWKDVKDGDQGFRQWLQXHVWRKDYH OLPLWHGVXFFHVVLQEULQJLQJ QHZSURGXFWVWRPDUNHW5HVHDUFKLQVWLWXWLRQVSDUWLFLSDWLQJLQWKHSURJUDPVKDG IHZRIÀ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ÀUPV WKDW HQWHUHGWKHSDUNVGLGVRRQO\WRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHSUHIHUHQWLDOWD[SROLFLHVDQG H[SRUWVXEVLGLHVDQGQHYHUGHYHORSHGDQ\QHZWHFKQRORJLHV0RUHRYHUPXFKRI WKHSURJUDPIXQGLQJZHQWWRPHGLXPDQGODUJH62(VUDWKHUWKDQVPDOOHUPRUH WHFKQRORJLFDOO\LQQRYDWLYHQRQVWDWHÀUPV
7KHHDUO\V 7KH HDUO\ DQG PLGV VDZ WKH WUHQG RI PRYLQJ DZD\ IURP WKH PRUH VWDWH FHQWULF PRGHO RI WHFKQRORJ\ GHYHORSPHQW FRQWLQXH 7HFKQRORJ\ SROLF\ ZDV LQFUHDVLQJO\ GHÀQHG E\ D JUHDWHU UHOLDQFH RQ IRUHLJQ DQG QRQVWDWH DFWRUV )RU WHFKQRORJ\WUDQVIHUV&KLQHVHSROLF\PDNHUVEHJDQWRVHHEHQHÀ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·V VRXWKHUQLQVSHFWLRQWRXULQ0XFKRIWKLVQHZLQYHVWPHQWLQDQG ZHQWWRPHGLXPDQGKLJKWHFKQRORJ\VHFWRUV$VDUHVXOW&KLQDEHFDPHPXFK PRUHUHOLDQWRQLQFRPLQJ)',WKDQ-DSDQKDVHYHUEHHQ7KHVFDOHRIH[SRUWVIURP IRUHLJQLQYHVWHG HQWHUSULVHV LQFUHDVHG GUDPDWLFDOO\ DQG PRUH LPSRUWDQWO\ WKH WHFKQRORJLFDOOHYHORIWKHH[SRUWVZDVJUDGXDOO\ULVLQJ1DXJKWRQ ,QDGGLWLRQWRODERULQWHQVLYHSURGXFWVVXFKDVWR\VDQGWH[WLOHVH[SRUWVQRZLQFOXGHG HOHFWURQLFDVVHPEO\DQGRWKHUSURGXFWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKWHFKQRORJ\VHFWRUV
Segal %HJLQQLQJ LQ IRUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW TXLFNO\ GRPLQDWHG GRPHVWLF PDFKLQHU\ SXUFKDVH DQG DOPRVW FHUWDLQO\ HPHUJHG DV WKH GRPLQDQW VRXUFH RI WHFKQRORJ\ LPSRUWVWKURXJK ,WZDVDOVRGXULQJWKHODWHVDQGHDUO\VWKDWWKHIRUHLJQFRPSDQLHV WKDWDUHQRZWKHZRUOGOHDGHUVLQSODQWELRWHFKQRORJ\ÀUVWHQWHUHG&KLQD7KHVH FRPSDQLHV XVXDOO\ LQWURGXFHG FRQYHQWLRQDO VHHG SURGXFWV LQ FRRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK SXEOLF UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWHV 3LRQHHU FRQGXFWHG WULDOV RQ PDL]H ZLWK WKH &HUHDOV %UHHGLQJ,QVWLWXWHDWWKH&KLQHVH$FDGHP\RI$JULFXOWXUDO6FLHQFHV&$$6 DQG 'HOWDDQG3LQH/DQGZRUNHGRQFRWWRQVHHG%XWQRQHRIWKHVHHDUO\HIIRUWVSURGXFHGVHHGYDULHWLHVWKDWZHUHUHOHDVHGE\WKHFHQWUDORUSURYLQFLDOJRYHUQPHQWV 3UD\ 2Q WKH GRPHVWLF VLGH WHFKQRORJ\ SROLF\ JUDGXDOO\ H[SDQGHG WR LQFOXGH DQ LQFUHDVLQJQXPEHURIQRQVWDWHDFWRUV7KH´'HFLVLRQRQ6HYHUDO3UREOHPV )DFLQJWKH(QWKXVLDVWLF3URPRWLRQRI1RQJRYHUQPHQWDO7HFKQRORJ\(QWHUSULVHVµ IXUWKHUUHFRJQL]HGDQGHQFRXUDJHGQRQJRYHUQPHQWDOHQWHUSULVHVDWWKHQDWLRQDO OHYHO7KHGHFLVLRQGHFODUHGWKDWQRQVWDWHHQWHUSULVHVZRXOGKDYHDUROHLQ GHYHORSLQJDQHZLQQRYDWLRQV\VWHPEDVHGRQPDUNHWRULHQWHGWHFKQRORJ\ÀUPV DVZHOODVFKDQJLQJDQ6 7V\VWHPGRPLQDWHGE\SXEOLFLQVWLWXWLRQVWRRQHWKDW HPEUDFHGRUJDQL]DWLRQVRIYDULRXVRZQHUVKLSVWUXFWXUHV ,QWKH&&3DQGWKH6WDWH&RXQFLODOVRLVVXHGD´'HFLVLRQRQ$FFHOHUDWLQJ 6 7'HYHORSPHQWµ:KLOHFDOOLQJIRUWKHVWUHQJWKHQLQJRIJRYHUQPHQWOHDGHUVKLSLQEDVLFWHFKQRORJ\UHVHDUFKWKHGHFLVLRQDFFHSWHGWKDWWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI DSSOLHG WHFKQRORJLHV VKRXOG EH OHIW WR WKH PDUNHW 6FLHQWLÀF UHVHDUFK LQVWLWXWHV ZHUH WR KDYH IXOO DXWRQRP\ LQ FKRRVLQJ 5 ' SURMHFWV DQG WKH\ VKRXOG WU\ WR IRUPMRLQWYHQWXUHVZLWKGRPHVWLFDQGIRUHLJQSDUWQHUV0RUHRYHUWKHGHFLVLRQSRLQWHGRXWWKDWQRQVWDWHFRPSDQLHVZHUHDQLPSRUWDQWIRUFHLQWKHKLJKWHFK ÀHOG DQG ZRUWK\ RI HQFRXUDJHPHQW 7KLV SRLQW LPSOLFLWO\ UHYLVHG WKH SUHYLRXV SULRULW\JLYHQWRODUJHVWDWHRZQHGHQWHUSULVHVZKLOHDOVRLPSOLFLWO\UHFRJQL]LQJ WKDWSROLF\XSXQWLOKDGFRQWLQXHGWRIDYRUODUJH62(V 7KHVXFFHVVRI/HJHQG&RPSXWHULOOXVWUDWHVWKHJURZLQJUROHDQGLPSRUWDQFH RIWKHVHQRQJRYHUQPHQWDOFRPSDQLHVLQWKHQHZHFRQRP\/HJHQGZDVIRXQGHG LQE\DJURXSRIVFLHQWLVWVIURPWKH,QVWLWXWHRI&RPSXWLQJ7HFKQRORJ\DWWKH &$6WKH$FDGHP\SURYLGHGWKHLQLWLDOVWDUWXSFDSLWDOLQWKHIRUPRID UHQPLQELORDQ7KHFRPSDQ\·VÀUVWSURGXFWZDVD&KLQHVHODQJXDJHFDUG²DQ HOHFWURQLFFDUGLQVHUWHGLQ3&VWRFRQYHUW(QJOLVKNH\VWURNHVLQWR&KLQHVHFKDUDFWHUV²DQGLQ/HJHQGLQWURGXFHGLWVRZQ3&LQWRWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW%\ ODWH/HJHQG·V3&ZDVRXWVHOOLQJDOORILWVIRUHLJQDQGGRPHVWLFFRPSHWLWRUV LQWKH&KLQHVHPDUNHW)URPWR/HJHQG·VDQQXDOLQFRPHDOPRVWTXDGUXSOHGIURPELOOLRQWRELOOLRQUHQPLQELWULSOLQJIURP86PLOOLRQWR 86ELOOLRQ 7KHLQÁRZRI)',KDVDOVRKDGVLJQLÀFDQWÀQDQFLDODQGRUJDQL]DWLRQDOLPSOLFDWLRQVIRU/HJHQG)UHTXHQWO\H[FOXGHGIURPEDQNOHQGLQJ/HJHQGUDLVHGVLJQLÀFDQW FDSLWDO E\ IRUPLQJ MRLQW YHQWXUHV ZLWK IRUHLJQ ÀUPV &RRSHUDWLRQ ZLWK IRUHLJQ SURGXFHUV DOVR DOORZHG /HJHQG DFFHVV WR DQ DOUHDG\ HVWDEOLVKHG JOREDO QHWZRUN RI IRUHLJQ SDUWQHUV WR PDUNHW WKHLU MRLQW YHQWXUH SURGXFWV ,Q DGGLWLRQ
Chinese technonationalism ZRUNLQJZLWKIRUHLJQHQWHUSULVHVDOORZHG/HJHQGWROHDUQDQGH[SHULPHQWZLWK QHZPDQDJHPHQWVWUXFWXUHV$VLWJUHZIURPWZHQW\WRHPSOR\HHVDQGIURP RQHRIÀFHWRVL[GHSDUWPHQWVWKHFRPSDQ\·VRUJDQL]DWLRQDOVWUXFWXUHLQFUHDVLQJO\ FDPHWRUHVHPEOHWKHPRGHUQHQWHUSULVHVWKDWZRXOGXQGHUSLQWKH´QHZLQQRYDWLRQV\VWHPµGHVFULEHGLQWKHGHFLVLRQ,Q/HJHQGHVWDEOLVKHGDKROGLQJFRPSDQ\LQ+RQJ.RQJDQGLVVXHGVKDUHVRQWKH+RQJ.RQJVWRFNPDUNHW ´Sitong Gupiao Niandi Shangshiµ>6WRQHWRJRRQWKH6WRFN0DUNHWDWWKHHQGRI WKHS&T Daily@2FWREHU ,Q /HJHQG RIÀFLDOO\ HQGHG LWV DPELJXRXV ´QRQJRYHUQPHQWDOµ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ÀUP HVWDEOLVKHG WKH%LRFHQWXU\7UDQVJHQH&RUSRUDWLRQWRPDUNHWWKHQHZFRWWRQYDULHWLHVJHQHWLFDOO\HQJLQHHUHGWREHUHVLVWDQWWREROOZRUPV&RRSHUDWLRQZLWK01&VVXFKDV 0RQVDQWR KDV SURYLGHG DFFHVV WR QHZ WHFKQRORJLHV DQG FDSLWDO FRQWUDFWV KDYH JLYHQ&KLQHVHÀUPVDFFHVVWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOJHUPSODVPDQGJHQHVWKDWKDYHEHHQ LQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRLPSURYHGFRUQK\EULGV7KHFROODERUDWLRQVKDYHDOVRSURYLGHG LPSRUWDQWLQFUHDVHVLQIXQGLQJIRUDIHZUHVHDUFKSURJUDPV3UD\
7KHODWHV %\WKHODWHVWKHUHZHUHVLJQLÀFDQWWHQVLRQVLQWKLVWZRWUDFNSROLF\HVSHFLDOO\ LQWKH)',OHGSURJUDPRIWHFKQRORJ\DFTXLVLWLRQ,QUHVSRQVHWHFKQRORJ\LPSRUW SROLF\KDVVKLIWHGWRZDUGTXHVWLRQVRIDEVRUSWLRQDQGGLIIXVLRQ,QWKHGRPHVWLF DUHQD SROLFLHV VXFK DV D ODWH 6WDWH &RXQFLO GHFLVLRQ KDYH UHGXFHG WKH GLUHFW UROH RI JRYHUQPHQW VXSSRUW IRU HQWHUSULVHV VKLIWLQJ IRFXV WR FUHDWLQJ DQ HQYLURQPHQWWKDWIRVWHUVVPDOOLQQRYDWLYHÀ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ÀFXOW\RIDQGWKXVXQGHUIXQGHGWKH DEVRUSWLRQRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHV$FFRUGLQJWRDUHSRUWE\WKH6WDWH6FLHQFH
Segal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·VKDUHULVLQJIURP SHUFHQWWRSHUFHQW&KLQD·VHOHFWURQLFVDQGWHOHFRPH[SRUWVJUHZIURP86 ELOOLRQLQWR86ELOOLRQLQZLWKWKHIRUHLJQVKDUHRIH[SRUWVPRYLQJ IURPSHUFHQWWRSHUFHQW*LOER\ 7KHVH IDFWRUV KDYH OHG WKH VWDWH WR UHFRPPLW LWVHOI WR VXSSRUWLQJ GRPHVWLF FDSDELOLWLHV DQG WR WZR LPSRUWDQW FKDQJHV LQ WKH VWDWH·V UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK QRQ VWDWHHQWHUSULVHVDQGLQQRYDWLRQÀUVWWKHUHKDVEHHQDQH[SDQVLRQRIWKHW\SHRI &KLQHVH GRPHVWLF HQWHUSULVHV GHHPHG ZRUWK\ RI VXSSRUW VHFRQG WKH QDWXUH RI VXSSRUWKDVFKDQJHG7KHGUDPDWLFH[SORVLRQRIWKHLQWHUQHWDQGUHODWHGGLJLWDO WHFKQRORJLHV LQ &KLQD KDV UHFHLYHG VLJQLÀFDQW FRYHUDJH LQ WKH SRSXODU SUHVV DQGLWKDVDOVRVLJQLÀFDQWO\LQÁXHQFHGKRZ&KLQHVHOHDGHUVWKLQNDERXWLQQRYDWLRQ6PDOOVPDUWXSFRPSDQLHVDSSHDUWRKDYHEHHQWKHHQJLQHRIWKLVZDYHRI LQQRYDWLRQLQWKH:HVWDQG&KLQHVHOHDGHUVDUHDQ[LRXVQRWWRPLVVRXWRQWKH EHQHÀWVRIUDSLGWHFKQRORJLFDOFKDQJHDVWKH\GLGLQWKHVVDQGV (VSHFLDOO\VLJQLÀFDQWKDVEHHQWKHIDFWWKDWPDQ\&KLQHVHVFLHQWLVWVDQGHQJLQHHUV KDYH SOD\HG DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH PRVW UHFHQW ZDYH RI LQQRYDWLRQ DQG DUH SDUWLFXODUO\SURPLQHQWLQ6LOLFRQ9DOOH\ 7KH VWULNLQJ UROH RI WKHVH HQWUHSUHQHXULDO HQJLQHHUV KDV HOLFLWHG SROLFLHV GHVLJQHGWRUHYHUVHSDUWRI&KLQD·VVHULRXVEUDLQGUDLQDQGWRPDNHJRYHUQPHQW SROLF\ IULHQGOLHU WR LQQRYDWLRQ DQG WKH FUHDWLRQ RI QHZ EXVLQHVVHV 1XPHURXV ORFDOLWLHVKDYHEHJXQVHWWLQJXSVSHFLDOFHQWHUVRIIHULQJIUHHUHQWDQGRWKHUEHQHÀWVWROXUH\RXQJHQWUHSUHQHXUVKRPH%HLMLQJIRUH[DPSOHKDVDQQRXQFHGWKH HVWDEOLVKPHQWRID6LOLFRQ9DOOH\UHFUXLWPHQWFHQWHULQDELGWRDWWUDFWVWXGHQWVWR UHWXUQWR&KLQD´%HLMLQJ7DUJHWV+LJKWHFK([SDWVµSouth China Morning Post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´KLJK WHFKQRORJ\µ 7KLV VXSSRUWFDQWDNHWKHIRUPRIDFFHVVWRORZLQWHUHVWFUHGLWOLQHVSUHIHUHQFHLQSURFXUHPHQWGHFLVLRQVRURWKHUNLQGVRIUHJXODWRU\SUHIHUHQFHRUUHOLHI 7KLVFKDQJLQJUHODWLRQVKLSH[SUHVVHGLWVHOIPRVWFOHDUO\LQDODWHGHFL-
Chinese technonationalism VLRQ RQ WHFKQRORJ\ SROLF\ ,Q FRQWUDVW WR WKH YDJXHQHVV LQ WKH DQG 6WDWH&RXQFLOGHFLVLRQVWKHGHFLVLRQFDOOHGIRUFRQFUHWHPHDVXUHVWRIRVWHU KLJKWHFKLQGXVWULHVDQGLQFOXGHGDIXQGWRVXSSRUW6 7LQQRYDWLRQE\VPDOODQG PHGLXPVL]HG HQWHUSULVHV DQG SUHIHUHQFHV IRU GRPHVWLF KLJKWHFK SURGXFWV DQG HTXLSPHQWLQJRYHUQPHQWDQGHQWHUSULVHSURFXUHPHQWV7KHGHFLVLRQDOVR SURYLGHGDSDUWLDOWD[GHGXFWLRQIRU5 'H[SHQGLWXUHVDWD[H[HPSWLRQIRUDOO LQFRPHIURPWKHWUDQVIHURU GHYHORSPHQWRI QHZ WHFKQRORJLHVDSUHIHUHQWLDO SHUFHQWYDOXHDGGHGWD[9$7 UDWHIRUVRIWZDUHSURGXFWVGHYHORSHGDQGSURGXFHG LQ&KLQDFRPSOHWH9$7H[HPSWLRQDQGVXEVLGL]HGFUHGLWIRUKLJKWHFKH[SRUWV DQGWKHOLVWLQJRIQHZKLJKWHFKFRPSDQLHVRQWKH6KDQJKDLDQG6KHQ]KHQVWRFN H[FKDQJHV ,QELRWHFKQRORJ\HQWHUSULVHVEHJDQHQMR\LQJWKHVDPHSUHIHUHQWLDOSROLFLHVXVHGWRSURPRWHVRIWZDUHWKH\ZHUHJLYHQSULRULW\IRUOLVWLQJRQWKHJURZWK PDUNHWERDUGULVNLQYHVWPHQWVZHUHH[HPSWHGIURPLQFRPHWD[DQGÀUPVWKDWRZQ LQGHSHQGHQWLQWHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\ULJKWVHQMR\HGWD[H[HPSWLRQVIRUWKHÀUVWÀYH \HDUVRIRSHUDWLRQDQGDSHUFHQWUHGXFWLRQIRUWKUHH\HDUVDIWHUWKDW$FFRUGLQJ WR/LX4LDQGLUHFWRURIWKHELRHQJLQHHULQJFHQWHUDWWKH0LQLVWU\RI6FLHQFHDQG 7HFKQRORJ\WKHVWDWHZLOODOORFDWHELOOLRQUHQPLQELIRXUWRÀYHWLPHVPRUHWKDQ WKHWRWDODPRXQWDOORFDWHGRYHUWKHODVWÀIWHHQ\HDUV WRWRWDOUHVHDUFKIXQGVLQWKH VHFWRUDQGDUUDQJHIRUELOOLRQUHQPLQELLQYHQWXUHFDSLWDOWREHLQYHVWHGLQ SURMHFWVEXWWKHVWDWH·VPDLQUROHZLOOEHWRSURYLGHSROLF\JXLGDQFHQRWLQYHVWPHQW´%LRPHGLFDO6HFWRUVJHW6WDWH$LGµBusiness Daily Update-XQH ´&KLQDWRLVVXHSROLF\LQIDYRURIELRWHFKLQGXVWU\µXinhua-XO\ 3ROLFLHVDUHDOVREHLQJDOWHUHGWRPDNHLWSRVVLEOHIRUWHFKQRORJLFDOO\LQYHQWLYH HQWUHSUHQHXUV LQ ERWK VHFWRUV WR UHDS ODUJH UHZDUGV IRU WKHLU FRQWULEXWLRQV 7RVWLPXODWHYHQWXUHFDSLWDO&KLQDKDVFKDQJHGDFFRXQWLQJUHJXODWLRQVRQKRZ UHJLVWHUHGFDSLWDOLVFDOFXODWHGDQGEHJXQWRDGGUHVVSUREOHPVRISXEOLFVDOHRI FRPSDQLHV RU OLVWLQJ RQ VWRFN PDUNHWV LQ RUGHU WR SURYLGH DQ H[LW RSWLRQ IRU LQLWLDOLQYHVWRUV&KLQHVHFRPSDQ\ODZIRUPHUO\GHFUHHGWKDWDPD[LPXPRI SHUFHQW RI DQ HQWHUSULVH·V UHJLVWHUHG FDSLWDO FRXOG EH JUDQWHG IRU WKH FRQWULEXWLRQRILQWDQJLEOH´WHFKQRORJ\µ2ULJLQDOO\GHYHORSHGWRLQFUHDVHWKHEDUJDLQLQJ SRZHURI&KLQHVHÀUPVQHJRWLDWLQJZLWKWHFKQRORJ\ULFK01&VWKHSHUFHQW FDSEHFDPHSDUWRIGRPHVWLFFRPSDQ\ODZDVZHOO7KHOLPLWKDVDOUHDG\EHHQ DEDQGRQHGLQSUDFWLFHDOWKRXJKQHZUHJXODWLRQVKDYHQRW\HWEHHQLVVXHG3ODQV IRUD´JURZWKHQWHUSULVHPDUNHWµOLNH1$6'$4LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDYHEHHQ DSSURYHGEXWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQKDVEHHQSXWRIIXQWLODIWHUUHJXODWRU\UHIRUPVWKDW ZLOOUHVWUXFWXUHWKHH[LVWLQJ6KDQJKDLDQG6KHQ]KHQVWRFNPDUNHWV
The security angle 7KH UHIRUPV GLVFXVVHG DERYH PXVW EH ÀUPO\ JURXQGHG LQ %HLMLQJ·V LPPHGLDWH VHFXULW\HQYLURQPHQWDQGLQWKHLQFUHDVLQJLQWHJUDWLRQRIVHFXULW\DQGWHFKQRORJ\ FRQFHUQV 3ROLF\PDNHUV KDYH VHHQ WHFKQRORJ\ DV NH\ WR PDLQWDLQLQJ &KLQD·V LQGHSHQGHQFHVLQFH7KHHDUOLHVWGHIHQVHWHFKQRORJ\VXFFHVVHV²WKHDWRPLF DQGK\GURJHQERPEVDQGLQWHUFRQWLQHQWDOPLVVLOHV²HQVXUHGWKDW&KLQDZRXOG
Segal QRW EH YXOQHUDEOH WR FRHUFLRQ IURP LWV VXSHUSRZHU DGYHUVDULHV ÀUVW WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHVDQGWKHQWKH6RYLHWV7KHOLQNRIWHFKQRORJ\WRVWUDWHJLFJRDOVLVQROHVV FOHDU WRGD\ (YHQ EHIRUH WKH7DLZDQ 6WUDLWV &ULVLV LQ DQG WKH ERPELQJ RI WKH&KLQHVHHPEDVV\LQ%HOJUDGHLQWKH&KLQHVHJRYHUQPHQWKDGDSSURYHG LQFUHDVHGVSHQGLQJIRUPLOLWDU\UHVHDUFKDQGGHYHORSPHQWXQGHUWKHSUHPLVHWKDW WKH 3HRSOH·V /LEHUDWLRQ$UP\ PXVW GHYHORS VRSKLVWLFDWHG ZHDSRQV WR PDLQWDLQ WHUULWRULDOLQWHJULW\ &KLQHVHSODQQHUVKDYHDEVRUEHGWKHOHVVRQWKDWPDQ\RIWKHGHWHUPLQDQWVRI VHFXULW\DUHQRORQJHUWREHIRXQGVROHO\LQDGYDQFHGZHDSRQVEXWLQFUHDVLQJO\ GHSHQG RQ VRSKLVWLFDWLRQ LQ FLYLOLDQ WHFKQRORJLHV ,Q HDUO\ WKH &KLQHVH HVWDEOLVKHGDQHZLQWHUGHSDUWPHQWDORUJDQL]DWLRQWRFRRUGLQDWHPLOLWDU\UHVHDUFK DQGGHYHORSPHQWWKHQHZ5 'ERG\PDGHXSRIH[SHUWVIURPWKH&RPPLVVLRQ RI 6FLHQFH 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG ,QGXVWU\ IRU 1DWLRQDO 'HIHQVH WKH &$6 DQG WKH &KLQHVH $FDGHP\ RI (QJLQHHULQJ LV DQ H[DPSOH RI WKH 3HRSOH·V /LEHUDWLRQ $UP\·VFRQWLQXLQJHIIRUWVWRKDUQHVVFLYLOLDQHIIRUWVWRPLOLWDU\JRDOV/DP 7KH&KLQHVHIHDUWKDWIDLOLQJWRGHYHORSDFRPSHWLWLYHDQGLQQRYDWLYHEDVHLQWKH LQIRUPDWLRQLQGXVWULHVDQGELRWHFKQRORJ\ZLOOFUHDWHDUHDOWHFKQRORJ\GHSHQGHQF\ WKDWZLOOLQHYLWDEO\SURYRNHDWWHPSWVE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGRWKHUVWRH[SORLWWKDW ZHDNQHVVZKHQHYHUFRQÁLFWGHYHORSV$VRQHFRPPHQWDWRUVDLGDERXWWKHQHHG WRGHYHORSDQLQGLJHQRXVVRIWZDUHEDVH´ZLWKRXWLQIRUPDWLRQVHFXULW\WKHUHLV QRQDWLRQDOVHFXULW\LQHFRQRPLFVSROLWLFVRUPLOLWDU\DIIDLUVµ´Guanzhu ‘Xinxi Zhimin Zhuyi’ Xianxiangµ >&RQFHUQLQJ ,QIRUPDWLRQ &RORQLDOLVP@ Jiefangjun Ribao,>PLA Daily@)HEUXDU\ $OWKRXJKWKHOLQNEHWZHHQWHFKQRORJ\DQGVHFXULW\PD\EHDSSDUHQWVWDWLQJ WKDW&KLQDVKRXOGXVHWKHÀ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ÀHGFURSVDVDFULWLFDOWRROWRLQFUHDVLQJWKHRXWSXWRIGRPHVWLFSURGXFWLRQDQG HYHQWXDOO\VHFXULQJIRRGVHFXULW\
Chinese technonationalism VR\EHDQV GRPHVWLF FRPPHQWDWRUV KDG SUHYLRXVO\ VXJJHVWHG WKDW &KLQD VKRXOG WDNHDGYDQWDJHRIWKHFRQWURYHUV\RYHUWKHVDIHW\RIJHQHWLFDOO\PRGLÀHGIRRGV WRUHVWULFWLPSRUWVIURPWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG(XURSHDQGWREXLOGXSLWVGRPHVWLF LQGXVWU\VHH=&KHQ´&KLQDWR5HVXPH6R\EHDQ,PSRUWVµThe Financial Times0DUFK ,QELRPHGLFLQHDODUPKDVEHHQUDLVHGRYHUIRUHLJQUHVHDUFKHUVZKRDUHVHHQ WREH´GUDLQLQJ&KLQD·VJHQHSRROµ$6WDWH&RXQFLORUGHUDQGD13& ODZEDQWKH´VXSSO\RIJHQHUHVRXUFHVWRRYHUVHDVUHFLSLHQWVZLWKRXWSHUPLVVLRQµ ´$QDO\VW 6D\V &KLQD WR %HFRPH 0DMRU *HQH 3OD\HU LQ WZHQW\ÀUVW &HQWXU\µ Xinhua0DUFK %XWVFLHQWLVWVKDYHVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYH ZD\IRU&KLQDWRSURWHFWLWVJHQHWLFUHVRXUFHVLVWREXLOGDGRPHVWLFELRWHFKQRORJ\ LQGXVWU\DQGHQVXUHWKDW&KLQHVHFRPSDQLHVRZQWKHSDWHQWVWR&KLQHVHJHQHV,Q WKHZRUGVRI&KHQ=KXGLUHFWRURIWKH+XPDQ*HQH5HVHDUFK&HQWHURI6KDQJKDL ´7KHNH\WRSURWHFWLQJ&KLQD·VKXPDQJHQHUHVRXUFHVDQGDFWLYHO\SDUWLFLSDWLQJLQ WKHFRPSHWLWLRQIRUJHQHVLQWRWKHQH[WFHQWXU\OLHVLQFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWDQGVFLHQWLÀFUHVHDUFKSRZHU7KHVHDOVRUHO\XSRQHQWHUSULVHVLQMHFWLQJYLWDOLW\LQWRJHQH UHVHDUFKµ´&RPSHWLWLRQIRU*HQHV,QWRWKH1H[W&HQWXU\µKeji Ribao >Science and Technology Daily@-XO\LQWHUQHWYHUVLRQ :KDWW\SHRIHQWHUSULVH LV JRLQJ WR EH WKH HQJLQH RI JURZWK UHPDLQV WR EH VHHQ 6RPH KDYH SRLQWHG WR VPDOOQRQJRYHUQPHQWDOÀUPVWKDWFRPSHWHIRUYHQWXUHFDSLWDOIURPGRPHVWLFDQG LQWHUQDWLRQDOVRXUFHVRWKHUVKDYHFRXQWHUHGWKDWWKHDOPRVWGRPHVWLFSKDUPDFHXWLFDOÀUPVPDQ\IURPWKHQRQVWDWHVHFWRUODFNFRPSHWLWLYHQHVV5DWKHU WKH\DUJXHIRUWKHQHHGWRUHGXFHWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIÀUPVOLPLWWKHQXPEHURI QHZÀUPVDQGJXLGHWKHH[LVWLQJHQWHUSULVHVWRWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRISURGXFWLRQ DQGLQYHVWPHQW7KH6WDWH(FRQRPLFDQG7UDGH&RPPLVVLRQIRUH[DPSOHSODQV WRXVHDVPDOOQXPEHURIFRQJORPHUDWHVWRGHYHORSÀYHWRWHQ´ELRHQJLQHHUHGµ GUXJV IURP WR ´&KLQD )RFXVHV RQ %LRWHFK 'HYHORSPHQWµ Xinhua 2FWREHU )RUWKHLQIRUPDWLRQLQGXVWULHVWKHSRLQWPD\EHEHVWLOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQW·VVXSSRUWRIVRIWZDUHFRPSDQLHVVXFKDV5HG)ODJDQGRWKHUQRQJRYHUQPHQWDOHQWHUSULVHVZRUNLQJRQ/LQX[RSHUDWLQJVRIWZDUH7KHSURPRWLRQRIWKH RSHQ/LQX[RSHUDWLQJV\VWHPKDVERWKHFRQRPLFDQGVHFXULW\PRWLYHV&KLQDLV FXUUHQWO\XQDEOHWRFRPSHWHLQWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHWIRU:LQGRZVUHODWHGVRIWZDUH DQG &KLQHVH FRPSXWHU SURJUDPPHUV DQG FRPSDQLHV FRXOG SOD\ D PXFK ELJJHU UROHLQWKH/LQX[ZRUOG*RDGDQG+ROODQG´,%0²5HG)ODJ²/LQX[WHDPRQ /LQX[GHYHORSPHQWµChinaOnline$XJXVW 3URPRWLRQRI/LQX[PD\ DOVRHDVH&KLQHVHIHDUVRIGHSHQGHQFHRQ0LFURVRIWDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV
Conclusion (QWU\ LQWR WKH:72 KDV SUHVHQWHG ERWK RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG VHYHUH FKDOOHQJHV WR GRPHVWLFWHFKQRORJ\SURGXFHUV2QWKHSRVLWLYHVLGHRIWKHOHGJHUWKHUHGXFWLRQ RIWDULIIVKDVHQGHGVPXJJOLQJDQGWKHEODFNPDUNHWLQLPSRUWHGFRPSRQHQWV7DR &KLQHVHSURGXFHUVKDYHEHHQDEOHWRORZHUFRVWVDQGH[SRUWVRIWHFKQRORJ\
Segal SURGXFWVUHDFKHG86ELOOLRQLQDQLQFUHDVHRISHUFHQWRYHU SHUFHQWRIWRWDOH[SRUWV0LQLVWU\RI&RPPHUFH )RUHLJQ LQYHVWPHQW KDV FRQWLQXHG WR ÁRZ LQWR WKH HOHFWURQLFV DQG KLJKWHFK VHFWRUVDQGKDVDFFHOHUDWHGWKHUHJLRQDOFOXVWHULQJRIWHFKQRORJ\SURGXFWLRQWKDW LVRFFXUULQJLQWKH
Chinese technonationalism 3UHPLHU :X
Notes )RUDGHVFULSWLRQRIWKH´HPEHGGHGµGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVHH(YDQV )RUKRZ WKH&KLQHVHVWDWHIDOOVVKRUWRIWKDWLGHDOVHH2NVHQEHUJDQG/LHEHUWKDO DQG 6KXH 3HUVRQDOLQWHUYLHZ0D\6HHDOVR%DDUN Zhongguo Keji Luntan QR 6HSWHPEHU SS ² LQ Joint Publication Research Service–China Science and Technology KHUHDIWHU -356&67 -DQXDU\ S2QWKHRUJDQL]DWLRQRIWKHSURJUDPLWVURRWVLQWKHSDVWDQGLWV GLIIHUHQFHIURPHDUOLHUGHIHQVHRULHQWHGFULWLFDOWHFKQRORJLHVSURJUDPVLQ&KLQDVHH )HLJHQEDXP 'LVFXVVLRQ RQ WKH ]RQHV GUDZV KHDYLO\ IURP 6KDR =KHQJTLDQJ ´3UHVHQW 3ROLF\ WR *RYHUQ +LJK 1HZ7HFK ,QGXVWULDO 'HYHORSPHQW =RQHVµ Zhongguo Keji Luntan -XO\ LQ-356&67'HFHPEHUSS² Beijingshi Xinjishu Chanye Kaifa Shiyanqu Tiaoliji Youguan Guiding >,QWHULP 5HJXODWLRQVDQG5HODWHG3URYLVLRQVRQWKH%HLMLQJ0XQLFLSDOLW\·V([SHULPHQWDO=RQH IRUWKH'HYHORSPHQWRI1HZ7HFKQRORJ\,QGXVWULHV@-XO\ Xiandaihau >0RGHUQL]DWLRQ@ -DQXDU\ SS ² LQ -356&67 -XO\ SS² 7KHDYHUDJHZDVUHQPLQELSHUUHVHDUFKHU&&KHQ 7KHUHLVDQH[FHOOHQWGLVFXVVLRQRIWKLVGRFXPHQWDWWKH86(PEDVV\ZHEVLWHKWWS ZZZXVHPEDVV\FKLQDRUJFQ
Segal )RUDKLVWRU\RI/HJHQGVHH+&KHQ /LDQ[LDQJ -LWXDQ >/HJHQG &RUSRUDWLRQ@ FRPSDQ\ SURVSHFWXV QR GDWH ,QWHUYLHZ /HJHQG&RUSRUDWLRQ%HLMLQJ-XQH 7KLVSDUDJUDSKGUDZVKHDYLO\IURP+XFKHW 8QLWHG 6WDWHV (PEDVV\ %HLMLQJ ´&KLQD·V (YROYLQJ %LRWHFK 3ROLF\µ -DQXDU\ RQOLQHDWKWWSZZZXVHPEDVV\FKLQDRUJFQHQJOLVKVDQGWVHHGODZKWP 6HHWKHFROOHFWHGDUWLFOHV8QLWHG6WDWHV(PEDVV\%HLMLQJ´1HZ35&+XPDQ*HQH ,35 5XOHVµ 6HSWHPEHU RQOLQH DW KWWSZZZXVHPEDVV\FKLQDJRYHQJOLVK VDQGWLQGH[KWPO 5HG)ODJLVEDFNHGE\WKH&$6 ´Jiaru WTO hou Kaifaqu de Kunjing he Chuluµ >$IWHU :72 (QWU\ 'HYHORSPHQW =RQHV&KDOOHQJHVDQG&KDQQHOV@Zhongguo Gao Jishu Chanye Daobao>China HighTech Herald@1RYHPEHU ´Gao Jishu Chanye Zhimian Yanfa Nantiµ >+LJK 7HFK ,QGXVWULHV )DFH 6HULRXV 'LIÀFXOWLHV@Kexue Ribao>Science Times@1RYHPEHU 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ,QIRUPDWLRQ 7HFKQRORJ\ 2IÀFH :ULWWHQ &RPPHQWV WR WKH 86 *RYHUQPHQW ,QWHUDJHQF\ 7UDGH 3ROLF\ 6WDII &RPPLWWHH LQ UHVSRQVH WR Federal Register 1RWLFH 5HJDUGLQJ &KLQD·V &RPSOLDQFH ZLWK LWV $FFHVVLRQ &RPPLWPHQWVWR7KH:RUOG7UDGH2UJDQL]DWLRQ6HSWHPEHURQOLQHDWKWWS ZZZDHDQHWRUJ*RYHUQPHQW$IIDLUVU5/LJT38SZ59OZ%J+XKSGI
References
$JJDUZDO 9LQRG DQG 6WHSKHQ +DJJDUG ´7KH 3ROLWLFV RI 3URWHFWLRQ LQ WKH 86 7H[WLOH DQG$SSDUHO ,QGXVWULHVµ ,Q American Industry in International Competition: Government Policies and Corporate Strategies HGLWHG E\ /DXUD 7\VRQ DQG -RKQ =\VPDQ,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVSS² $KXMD 9LQRG %HQX %LGDQL )UDQFLVFR )HUUHLUD DQG 0LFKDHO :DOWRQ Everyone’s Miracle? Revisiting Poverty and Inequality in East Asia :DVKLQJWRQ '& :RUOG %DQN $NDQH\D 7DWVXR 1LKRQ QR *$772 .DQ\ŗ 0RQGDL ´5HMLPX 5LURQµ QR %XQVHNL 6KLNDNXQLThe Problem of Japanese Accession to the GATT: A Case Study in Regime Theory@.7RN\R8QLYHUVLW\RI7RN\R3UHVV $OEHUW0LFKHOCapitalism vs. Capitalism1HZ
References %DDUN(ULN´+LJK7HFKQRORJ\,QQRYDWLRQDWWKH&KLQHVH$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHVµ Science and Public Policy 1R %DKO 5R\ ´&HQWUDO²3URYLQFLDO²/RFDO )LVFDO 5HODWLRQV WKH 5HYHQXH 6LGHµ ,Q Taxation in Modern ChinaHGLWHGE\'RQDOG-6%UHDQ1HZ
References &KDXGKU\ .LUHQ ´7KH 0\WKV RI WKH 0DUNHW DQG WKH &RPPRQ +LVWRU\ RI /DWH 'HYHORSHUVµPolitics and Society ² &KHQ &KXQEDR Zhongguo Jishu Chanye Fazhan yu Waimao Jingzhengli >Development of High-tech Industries in China and China’s Competitiveness in Foreign Trade@;L·DQ&KLQD1RUWKHDVW&DLMLQJ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV &KHQ +XLKX Lianxiang Weishenma? >Why Legend?@ %HLMLQJ %HLMLQJ 'D[XH &KXQEDQVKH &KHQ =KDQJOLDQJ ´8QOLPLWHG 3URVSHFWV IRU %LRWHFKQRORJ\µ Zhishi Jingji >Knowledge Economy@'HFHPEHU² &KHQJ(QMLDQJ´0DUNHW5HIRUPVDQG3URYLVLRQRI&UHGLWIRU*UDLQ3XUFKDVHVLQ &KLQDµChina Quarterly6HSWHPEHU ² &KHQJ7LHMXQDQG0DUN6HOGHQ´7KH&RQVWUXFWLRQRI6SDWLDO+LHUDUFKLHV&KLQD·V Hukou and Danwei 6\VWHPVµ,QNew Perspectives on State Socialism in ChinaHGLWHG E\7LPRWK\&KHHNDQG7RQ\6DLFK. $UPRQN1<0(6KDUSHSS² &KHQJ7XQ-HQ´'HPRFUDWL]LQJWKH4XDVL/HQLQLVW5HJLPHLQ7DLZDQµWorld Politics ³³´*XDUGLQJWKH&RPPDQGLQJ+HLJKWV7KH6WDWHDV%DQNHULQ7DLZDQµ,QThe Politics of Finance in Developing CountriesHGLWHGE\6WHSKDQ+DJJDUG&KXQJ+/HH DQG6\OYLD0D[ÀHOG,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV ² &KRL %\XQJ6XQ ´)LQDQFLDO 3ROLF\ DQG %LJ %XVLQHVV LQ .RUHDµ ,Q The Politics of Finance in Developing CountriesHGLWHGE\6WHSKDQ+DJJDUG&KXQJ+/HHDQG 6\OYLD0D[ÀHOG,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVSS ² &KR\-RQ´)LQDQFLDO0DUNHW5HIRUPLQ-DSDQ%LJ%DQJRU-XVW)L]]"µJEI Report 1R-DQXDU\ &KXQJ-DH+R´$6XE3URYLQFLDO5HFLSHRI&RDVWDO'HYHORSPHQWLQ&KLQD7KH &DVHRI4LQJGDRµChina Quarterly² &XPLQJV %UXFH ´7KH 2ULJLQV DQG 'HYHORSPHQW RI WKH 1RUWKHDVW$VLDQ 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\,QGXVWULDO6HFWRUV3URGXFW&\FOHVDQG3ROLWLFDO&RQVHTXHQFHVµInternational Organization 'HVWOHU,0American Trade Politics: System Under StressUGHGQ:DVKLQJWRQ '&,QVWLWXWHIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO(FRQRPLFV 'HVWOHU , 0 +DUXKLUR )XNXL DQG +LGHR 6DWR 7KH 7H[WLOH :UDQJOH &RQÁLFW LQ Japanese–American Relations, 1969–1971.,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 'H\R)UDQNHG The Political Economy of East Asian Industrialism. ,WKDFD1< &RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 'LQJ ; / ´,QVWLWXWLRQDO$PSKLELRXVQHVV DQG WKH7UDQVLWLRQ IURP &RPPXQLVP 7KH&DVHRI&KLQDµBritish Journal of Political Science 'LWWPHU/RZHOODQG<XVKDQ:X´7KH0RGHUQL]DWLRQRI)DFWLRQDOLVPLQ&KLQHVH 3ROLWLFVµWorld Politics ² 'RNXVHQ%XQVHNL.HQN\ŗNDLHG ´1LKRQ'HQKLQ'HQZD.RVKDµ>177@,Q Nihon QR.ĿNLJ\Ŀ>Japan’s Public Corporations@7RN\R6KLQ1LKRQ6KXSSDQVKD 'RV6DQWRV7KHRWRQLR´7KH6WUXFWXUHRI'HSHQGHQFHµAmerican Economic Review ² 'XFNHWW -DQH The Entrepreneurial State in China: Real Estate and Commerce Departments in Reform-Era Tianjin. /RQGRQ5RXWOHGJH 'XQFDQ 5RQ DQG ;LDRZHQ 7LDQ ´&KLQD·V ,QWHUSURYLQFLDO 'LVSDULWLHV $Q ([SODQDWLRQµCommunist and Post-communist Studies² (NXVD$WRShinto NTT no Kiki Senryaku >President) Shinto’s NTT Crisis Strategy@ 7RN\R%LMLQHVX6KD (OLRW')*´7ZHQW\ÀYH
References (YDQV3HWHU´&ODVV6WDWHDQG'HSHQGHQFHLQ(DVW$VLD/HVVRQVIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDµ In The Political Economy of the New Asian IndustrialismHGLWHGE\)UHGLULF'H\R,WKDFD 1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVSS² ³³ ´3UHGDWRU\ 'HYHORSPHQWDO DQG 2WKHU$SSDUDWXVHV$ &RPSDUDWLYH 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\3HUVSHFWLYHRQWKH7KLUG:RUOG6WDWHµSociological Forum² ³³ Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation. 3ULQFHWRQ 1- 3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )DLUEDQN-RKQ.(GZLQ25HLVFKDXHUDQG$OEHUW0&UDLJEast Asia: Tradition and Transformation%RVWRQ0$+RXJKWRQ0LIÁLQ )DMQ]\OEHU)HUQDQGR´7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG-DSDQDV0RGHOVRI,QGXVWULDOL]DWLRQµ In Manufacturing Miracles: Paths of Industrialization in Latin America and AsiaHGLWHG E\*DU\*HUHIÀDQG'RQDOG/:\PDQ. 3ULQFHWRQ1-3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )DU(DVWHUQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZAsia Yearbook+RQJ.RQJ )DUUHO5RJHU´-DSDQHVH)RUHLJQ'LUHFW,QYHVWPHQWLQWKH:RUOG(FRQRP\² µ3DFLÀF(FRQRPLF3DSHUV$XVWUDOLD²-DSDQ5HVHDUFK&HQWHU1R )HLJHQEDXP(YDQ´:KR·V%HKLQG&KLQD·V+LJK7HFKQRORJ\¶5HYROXWLRQ·"+RZ %RPE 0DNHUV UHPDGH %HLMLQJ·V 3ULRULWLHV 3ROLFLHV DQG ,QVWLWXWLRQVµ International Security1R ³³ China’s Techno-Warriors: National Security and Strategic Competition from the Nuclear to the Information Age6WDQIRUG6WDQIRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )HQJ<XVKXGuoji Maoyi Tizhi Xia de Guan Mao Zong Xieding yu Zhongguo>GATT and China Under the International Trade System@%HLMLQJ=KRQJJXR'XL:DL-LQJML 0DR\L&KXEDQVKH>&KLQHVH)RUHLJQ(FRQRPLF7UDGH3XEOLVKHUV@ )HZVPLWK-RVHSKChina Since Tiananmen: The Politics of Transition. 1HZ
References *LEQH\ )UDQN HG Unlocking the Bureaucrat’s Kingdom: Deregulation and the Japanese Economy:DVKLQJWRQ'&%URRNLQJV,QVWLWXWLRQ3UHVV *LOER\*HRUJH´7KH0\WK%HKLQG&KLQD·V0LUDFOHµForeign Affairs-XO\$XJXVW *LOSLQ5REHUWDQG-HDQ0*LOSLQThe Challenge of Global Capitalism. 3ULQFHWRQ 1-3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV *RDG * 3LHUUH DQG /RULHQ +ROODQG ´&KLQD -RLQV WKH /LQX[ %DQGZDJRQµ Far Eastern Economic Review)HEUXDU\ *RRGPDQ 'DYLG ´7KH &DPSDLJQ WR ´2SHQ 8S WKH :HVWµ 1DWLRQDO 3URYLQFLDO OHYHODQG/RFDO3HUVSHFWLYHVµChina Quarterly² *RZ ,DQ ´5HUHJXODWLRQ &RPSHWLWLRQ DQG 1HZ ,QGXVWULHV LQ -DSDQHVH 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVµ,QThe Promotion and Regulation of Industry in JapanHGLWHG E\6WHSKHQ:LONVDQG0DXULFH:ULJKW1HZ-DSDQ·V6RIWZDUH ,QGXVWU\DQGLWV3ROLFLHV@µBijinesu Rebyu +HOG'DYLGDQG$QWKRQ\-0F*UHZHGV The Global Transformations Reader. 2[IRUG%ODFNZHOO3XEOLVKLQJ +HOOPDQ-RHO6´:LQQHUV7DNH$OO7KH3ROLWLFVRI3DUWLDO5HIRUPµWorld Politics ² +LJXFKL+LURWDUR´*DLWDPHK{.DLVHLQR(LN\{WR(QQR.RNXVDLNDµ>7KH,QÁXHQFH RIWKH5HIRUPWRWKH)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH/DZDQGWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDOL]DWLRQRIWKH
References +RUQH-DPHV-DSDQ·V)LQDQFLDO0DUNHWV&RQÁLFWDQG&RQVHQVXVLQ3ROLF\PDNLQJ 1RUWK6LGQH\*HRUJH$OOHQ 8QZLQ +RX -XQMXQ ´*OREDOL]DWLRQ RI 5 ' DQG 1DWLRQDO (FRQRPLF 6HFXULW\µ Duiwai Jingji Maoyi Daxue Xuebao>Journal of the College of Foreign Economics and Trade@ -XO\SS² +X/HJHQGDQG 7KH &RPSXWHU 6FLHQFH ,QVWLWXWH ² 2XU 'LYRUFH 2WKHU 3HRSOH·V &ULWLFLVP@ RQOLQH DW KWWSZZZVLQDFRPFQQHZVUHYLHZ²²VKWPO +XDQJ7HFKQRORJ\,QGXVWU\'HYHORSPHQWDIWHU:72(QWU\@RQOLQH DWKWWSZZZV[DJULVFDFFQMFFN:72QHZBSDJHBKWP ,DQFKRYLFKLQD(OHQDDQG:LOO0DUWLQ´7UDGH/LEHUDOL]DWLRQLQ&KLQD·V$FFHVVLRQ WR:72µ3DSHUSUHVHQWHGDWWKH:RUNVKRSRQ&KLQD·V$FFHVVLRQ3ROLF\5HIRUPDQG 3RYHUW\5HGXFWLRQ:RUOG%DQN%HLMLQJ2FWREHU² ,LGD .HLVXNH ´7DVWLQJ WKH 6SLULW RI WKH :72 7KH -DSDQHVH /LTXRU 7D[ &DVHµ Aoyama Journal of International Politics, Economics, and Business² ,QRXH .RNL ´5 ' &RQVRUWLD LQ WKH Vµ ,Q Technology and Innovation in JapanHGLWHGE\0DUWLQ+HPPHUWDQG&KULVWLDQ2EHUODQGHU/RQGRQ5RXWOHGJHSS ² ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW 5HVHDUFK &HQWHU DQG 6WDWH 6FLHQFH DQG 7HFKQRORJ\ &RPPLVVLRQ A Decade of Reform: Science and Technology Policy in China 2WWDZD,QWHUQDWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW5HVHDUFK&HQWHU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )LQDQFH &RUSRUDWLRQ Foreign Direct Investment :DVKLQJWRQ '& ,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFH&RUSRUDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0RQHWDU\ )XQG World Economic Outlook: Interim Assessment :DVKLQJWRQ'&,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQG ,UZLQ'RXJODV$´7UDGH3ROLWLFVDQGWKH6HPLFRQGXFWRU,QGXVWU\µ,QThe Political Economy of American Trade PolicyHGLWHGE\$QQH2.UXHJHU&KLFDJR7KH8QLYHUVLW\ RI&KLFDJR3UHVVIRUWKH1DWLRQDO%XUHDXRI(FRQRPLF5HVHDUFKSS² -DFREVRQ +DUROG . DQG 0LFKHO 2NVHQEHUJ China’s Participation in the IMF, World Bank, and GATT: Toward a Global Economic Order$QQ$UERU8QLYHUVLW\RI 0LFKLJDQ3UHVV -DSDQ(OHFWURQLFV,QGXVWU\3URPRWLRQ$VVRFLDWLRQ-(,'$ HG Nichibei Sofutouea *\DSSXQLVXUX&KĿVD+ĿNRNXVKR:DJD.XQLQR-ĿKĿ6DQJ\ĿQR.DGDL>Report on a Survey of the US–Japan Software Gap, an Issue in our Nation’s Information Industry]. 7RN\R-(,'$. -LDQJ ;LDRMXQ ´&KLQHVH *RYHUQPHQW 3ROLF\ 7RZDUG 6FLHQFH DQG 7HFKQRORJ\ DQG LWV ,QÁXHQFH RQ WKH 7HFKQRORJLFDO 'HYHORSPHQW RI ,QGXVWULDO (QWHUSULVHVµ ,Q Chinese Technology Transfer in the 1990s: Current Experience, Historical Problems and International Perspectives HGLWHG E\ &KDUOHV )HLQVWHLQ DQG &KULVWRSKHU +RZH &KHOWHQKDP(GZDUG(OJDU -RKQVRQ &KDOPHUV. MITI and the Japanese Miracle. 6WDQIRUG &$ 6WDQIRUG 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV .DQJ'DYLG&´%DG/RDQVWR*RRG)ULHQGV0RQH\3ROLWLFVDQGWKH'HYHORSPHQWDO 6WDWHLQ6RXWK.RUHDµInternational Organization² .DSODQ'DYLG(´
References .DSVWHLQ(WKDQ%´5HVROYLQJWKH5HJXODWRU·V'LOHPPD,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRUGLQDWLRQRI %DQNLQJ5HJXODWLRQVµInternational Organization² .DWDGD 6DRUL 1 %DQNLQJ RQ 6WDELOLW\ -DSDQ DQG WKH &URVV3DFLÀF '\QDPLFV RI International Financial Crisis Management.$QQ$UERU0,8QLYHUVLW\RI0LFKLJDQ 3UHVV .DW]5LFKDUGJapan: the System that Soured: The Rise and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle$UPRQN1<0(6KDUSH .HOOHU:LOOLDP:DQG5LFKDUG6DPXHOV´,QWURGXFWLRQµ,QCrisis and Innovation: Asian Technology after the Millennium HGLWHG E\ :LOOLDP : .HOOHU DQG 5LFKDUG 6DPXHOV1HZThe Mountain Range of NTT’s Advantages@. 7RN\R.RGDQVKD. .RPL\D5\XWDURDQG0RWRVKLJH,WRK´-DSDQ·V,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG7UDGH3ROLF\ ²µ,QThe Political Economy of Japan, Vol. 2 – The Changing International Context HGLWHG E\7DNDVKL ,QRJXFKL DQG 'DQLHO , 2NLPRWR 6WDQIRUG &$ 6WDQIRUG 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVSS² .RR +DJHQ ´7KH 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ RI ,QFRPH 'LVWULEXWLRQ LQ 6RXWK .RUHD 7KH ,PSDFWRIWKH6WDWH·V,QGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ3ROLFLHVµWorld Development² .RVDL<XWDNDDQG
References $Q$QDO\VLV RI (YLGHQFH RQ ,QLWLDO 2UJDQL]DWLRQDO &KDQJHVµ China Quarterly ² /LQFROQ(GZDUG)´-DSDQ·V)LQDQFLDO0HVVµ)RUHLJQ$IIDLUV ² /LQFROQ(GZDUG-Japan’s Unequal Trade:DVKLQJWRQ'&%URRNLQJV,QVWLWXWLRQ 3UHVV ³³Troubled Times: U.S.–Japan Trade Relations in the 1990s:DVKLQJWRQ'& %URRNLQJV,QVWLWXWLRQ3UHVV /LQFROQ(GZDUG-DQG5REHUW(/LWDQ´7KH¶%LJ%DQJ·"$Q$PELYDOHQW-DSDQ 'HUHJXODWHV,WV)LQDQFLDO0DUNHWVµBrookings Review ² /LX<XDQGDDQG6KL4LXJingji cankao bao-XO\S /RULDX[0LFKDHO0HUHGLWK:RR&XPLQJV.HQW(&DOGHU6\OYLD0D[ÀHOGDQG6RÀD3HUH] HGV Capital Ungoverned – Liberalizing Finance in Interventionist States ,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 0D-XQQuantifying the Impact of China’s WTO Entry.+RQJ.RQJ'HXWVFKH%DQN *OREDO0DUNHW5HVHDUFK 0F0LOODQ-RKQDQG%DUU\1DXJKWRQ´+RZWR5HIRUPD3ODQQHG(FRQRP\/HVVRQV IURP&KLQDµOxford Review of Economic Policy1RSS² 0DWVXVKLWD 0LWVXR ´5HVWULFWLYH %XVLQHVV 3UDFWLFHV DQG WKH:72*$77 'LVSXWH 6HWWOHPHQW3URFHVVµ,QInternational Trade Law and the GATT/WTO Dispute Settlement System HGLWHG E\ (UQVW8OULFK 3HWHUVPDQQ /RQGRQ .OXZHU /DZ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO SS ² 0HLVQHU0DXULFHMao’s China and After: A History of the People’s RepublicUG HGQ1HZThird Research on the Japanese Overseas Business Activities: Foreign Investment Statistics@7RN\R0,7, 0,7,6DQJ\Ŀ.Ŀ]Ŀ6KLQJLNDL-ĿKĿ6DQJ\Ŀ%XNDL.LQN\ŗ7HLJHQ6RIXWRXHD6KLQ Jidai >Urgent Proposal: The New Age of Software@. 7RN\R0,7, ³³ ´.DLJDL 7{VKL QR -RVHLµ >)RVWHULQJ 2YHUVHDV ,QYHVWPHQW@ ,Q Tsushôsangyô Seisakushi >History of International Trade and Industrial Policies@7RN\R0,7, ³³ 6DQJ\Ŀ 6HLVDNX 6DELLVX 6DQJ\ĿND HG Sofuto Indastorii no Jidai, 21 Seiki .DVRNX VXUX .HL]DL 6Ŀ]Ŀ QR 1DPL >The Era of the Software Industry: The Wave of Economic Creativity that is Accelerating the 21st Century@ 7RN\R 0,7, &KĿVDNDL 6KXSSDQEX 0LWWHOPDQ -DPHV + HG The Globalization Syndrome: Transformation and Resistance. 3ULQFHWRQ1-3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 02) 9DULRXV \HDUV Zhongguo Caizheng Nianjian %HLMLQJ =KRQJJXR &DL]KHQJ =D]KLVKH 02)Showa Zaisei Shi, 1952–73>History of Showa’s Public Finance, 1952–73@ 7RN\R7R\R.HL]DL ³³Kokusai kinyu kyoku nenpo>Annual Review by International Finance Bureau@ 7RN\R02) 0RRUH %DUULQJWRQ -U Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World%RVWRQ0$%HDFRQ3UHVV 0RUL\XNL 6KLQML ´177 %XQNDWVX GH 8JRNL .\ŗQD 7HUHNRPXµ >8UJHQF\ LQ 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV 0RYHPHQW 'XH WR WKH %UHDNXS RI 177@ Ekonomisuto >The Economist@-XQH 037HG $QQXDOTsushin Hakusho>Telecommunications White Paper@7RN\R2NXUDVKR ,QVDWVX.\RNX 0XL0DWWKHZDQG.HOYLQ/HH´7KH9$75HIXQG(IIHFWµChina Business Review ²
References 0XOYHQRQ-DPHVSoldiers of Fortune: The Rise and Fall of the Chinese Military– Business Complex, 1978–1998. $UPRQN1<0(6KDUSH 1DNDKLUD <XNLQRUL DQG =HPEHL 0L]RJXFKL Kawasehô no Jitsumu >Business Practice of the Foreign Exchange Law@7RN\R02) 1DNDPXUD7DNDIXVDThe Post-war Japanese Economy. 7RN\R8QLYHUVLW\RI7RN\R 3UHVV 1DND\DPD:DWDUX:LOOLDP%XUWRQDQG0LFKDHO3HFKWThe Japanese Electronics Industry1HZJapan’s Industrial Structure, Prospects in the Post Cold-War Period@7RN\R $RNL6KRWHQ 2]DZD 7HUXWRPR Recycling Japan’s Surplus for Developing Countries 3DULV 'HYHORSPHQW &HQWUH RI WKH 2UJDQL]DWLRQ IRU (FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ DQG 'HYHORSPHQW
References 3DOPHWHU'DYLGDQG3HWURV&0DYURLGLVDispute Settlement in the World Trade Organization: Practice and Procedure. 1HZ
References 3RUJHV$PHOLD´86²-DSDQ7UDGH1HJRWLDWLRQV3DUDGLJPV/RVWµ,QTrade With Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider? HGLWHG E\ 3DXO .UXJPDQ &KLFDJR ,/ 7KH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV IRU WKH 1DWLRQDO %XUHDX RI (FRQRPLF 5HVHDUFK SS ² 3RVHQ$GDP6Restoring Japan’s Economic Growth.:DVKLQJWRQ'&,QVWLWXWHIRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO(FRQRPLFV 3UD\ &DUO ´3XEOLF DQG 3ULYDWH &ROODERUDWLRQ RQ 3ODQW %LRWHFKQRORJ\ LQ &KLQDµ AgBioForum ² ³³´3XEOLF²3ULYDWH6HFWRU/LQNDJHVLQ5HVHDUFKDQG'HYHORSPHQW%LRWHFKQRORJ\ DQGWKH6HHG,QGXVWU\LQ%UD]LO&KLQDDQG,QGLDµAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics² 3UHELVFK5DXO´&RPPHUFLDO3ROLF\LQWKH8QGHUGHYHORSHG&RXQWULHVµAmerican Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings ² ³³´6L]H6WDJHVLQ0\7KLQNLQJRQ'HYHORSPHQWµ,QPioneers in Development HGLWHGE\*HUDOG00HLHUDQG'XGOH\6HDUV. 1HZ
References 6FKRSSD /HRQDUG - Bargaining With Japan: What American Pressure Can and Cannot Do. 1HZ0RQRSRO\ &RPSDQLHV177·V,QWHUQDODQG([WHUQDO7URXEOHV@µEkonomisuto>The Ecomomist@ 1RYHPEHU ³³7VŗVKLQ.DNXPHLWR'HQGHQ.ĿVKDĿ>The Telecommunications Revolution and NTT@7RN\R0DLQLFKL6KLPEXQVKD 6KLUN6XVDQ/The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China.%HUNHOH\&$ 8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD3UHVV ³³How China Opened Its Door: The Political Success of the PRC’s Trade and Investment Reforms. :DVKLQJWRQ'&%URRNLQJV,QVWLWXWLRQ 6KXH9LYLHQQHPeasant China in Transition: The Dynamics of Development Toward Socialism, 1949–1956.%HUNHOH\&$8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD3UHVV ³³The Reach of the State: Sketches of the Chinese Body Politic. 6WDQIRUG&$ 6WDQIRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV ³³´6WDWH3RZHUDQG6RFLDO2UJDQL]DWLRQLQ&KLQDµ,QState Power and Social Forces: Domination and Transformation in the Third World HGLWHG E\ -RHO 0LJGDO $WXO.RKOLDQG9LYLHQQH6KXH&DPEULGJH&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 6PLWK 7RQ\ ´7KH 8QGHUGHYHORSPHQW RI 'HYHORSPHQW /LWHUDWXUH 7KH &DVH RI 'HSHQGHQF\7KHRU\µ,QThe State and Development in the Third WorldHGLWHGE\$WXO .RKOL.3ULQFHWRQ1-3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 6RH\D
References Issues in China’s Economic Transition HGLWHG E\ &KDUOHV +DUYLH 1HZ 7KHZLQQHURI LQWHUQDWLRQDO&06ZLOOIHQFHLQGRPHVWLFFOLHQWV@Zaisei Kinyû Jijô$SULO² 7DR6KDRKXD´=KRQJJXR'LDQ]L;LQ[L&KDQ\H%LDQJH1LDQ5XVKLKRXGH;LQ-L\Xµ >&KLQD·V(OHFWURQLF,QGXVWU\·V7UDQVIRUPDWLYH,VVXHV LQ -DSDQ·V ,QIRUPDWLRQ ,QGXVWULHV 'XULQJ D 7LPH RI 7UDQVLWLRQ@µ Joho Shori >Information Processing@² 7VDL .HOOHH 6 Back-Alley Banking: Private Entrepreneurs in China. ,WKDFD 1< &RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 7VRX7DQJThe Cultural Revolution and Post-Mao Reforms. &KLFDJR,/8QLYHUVLW\ RI&KLFDJR3UHVV 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV &RQIHUHQFH RQ 7UDGH DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 2000 World Investment Report*HQHYD8QLWHG1DWLRQV&RQIHUHQFHRQ7UDGHDQG'HYHORSPHQW ³³2004 World Investment Report*HQHYD8QLWHG1DWLRQV&RQIHUHQFHRQ7UDGH DQG'HYHORSPHQW 8UDQLVKL7RPRJL´.LQ\6KLKRQ6KLM{QR,VVRQR.DVVHLNDZD6KRELQRN\GH DUXµ>2QWKH8UJHQF\RI5HYLWDOL]LQJWKH)LQDQFLDO&DSLWDO0DUNHWV@Kinyû Zaisei Jijô -XO\SS² 86²&KLQD%XVLQHVV&RXQFLO´&KLQD·V7UDGH3HUIRUPDQFHµRQOLQHDWKWWSZZZ XVFKLQDRUJVWDWLVWLFVWUDGHSHUIRUPDQFHKWPO 86*RYHUQPHQW´&RXQWU\&RPPHUFLDO*XLGH-DSDQ)<86(PEDVV\7RN\R -DSDQ&KDSWHU/HDGLQJ6HFWRUVIRU86([SRUWVDQG,QYHVWPHQWµ:DVKLQJWRQ'& 1DWLRQDO7HFKQLFDO,QIRUPDWLRQ6HUYLFH RQQOLQHDWKWWSZZZVWDWXVDJRY 86,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGH$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ $QQXDO Best Market Reports, Computer Software RQQOLQHDWKWWSZZZVWDWXVDJRY 86 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 7UDGH &RPPLVVLRQ Assessment of the Economic Effects on the United States of China’s Accession to the WTO 3XEOLFDWLRQ 6HSWHPEHU :DVKLQJWRQ'&,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGH&RPPLVVLRQ 867UDGH5HSUHVHQWDWLYH´,QGXVWU\)DFWVKHHW²%DQNLQJµZHEVLWHDFFHVVHG$XJXVW RQOLQHDWKWWSZZZFKLQDSQWUJRYLQGXVWU\IDFWVKHHWVEDQNLQJD QGVHFXULWLHVKWP 9DOHQ]XHOD - 6DPXHO DQG $UWXUR 9DOHQ]XHOD ´0RGHUQL]DWLRQ DQG 'HSHQGHQF\ $OWHUQDWLYH 3HUVSHFWLYHV LQ WKH 6WXG\ RI /DWLQ $PHULFDQ 8QGHUGHYHORSPHQWµ Comparative Politics -XO\ ² 9DQ :ROIHUHQ .DUHO The Enigma of Japanese Power: People and Politics in a Stateless Nation1HZ
References 9RJHO(]UD)The Four Little Dragons: The Spread of Industrialization in East Asia. &DPEULGJH0$+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 9RJHO 6WHSKHQ Freer Markets, More Rules: Regulatory Reform in Advanced Industrial Countries,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV :DGH5REHUWGoverning the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization. 3ULQFHWRQ1-3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV ³³´*OREDOL]DWLRQDQGLWV/LPLWV5HSRUWVRIWKH'HDWKRIWKH1DWLRQDO(FRQRP\DUH *UHDWO\([DJJHUDWHGµ,QNational Diversity and Global CapitalismHGLWHGE\6X]DQQH %HUJHUDQG5RQDOG'RUH. ,WKDFD1<&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\3UHVVSS² :DNDVXJL5\XKHL´:K\IRUHLJQÀUPV·HQWU\KDVEHHQORZLQ-DSDQDQHPSLULFDO H[DPLQDWLRQµ,Q Foreign Direct Investment in JapanHGLWHGE\0DVDUX
References ³³ The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy 1HZ 7KH 5RDG WR 177·V &RUSRUDWL]DWLRQ@µKeizai >Economy@-XO\1R
Index
´V\VWHPµ ´µEDQNVHFWRUVWUXFWXUH-DSDQ 3ODQ 3URMHFW²KLVWRU\RI² $JULFXOWXUDO%DQNRI&KLQD$%& ² DJULFXOWXUDOFRRSHUDWLYHV-DSDQnokyo see alsoUXUDOFUHGLWFRRSHUDWLYHV $JULFXOWXUDO'HYHORSPHQW%DQNRI&KLQD $'%& ² $OOLHGRFFXSDWLRQ² $PHULFDQ7HOHSKRQHDQG7HOHJUDSK $7 7 $QWLGXPSLQJ5HJXODWLRQV $SSOLFDWLRQRI6DQLWDU\DQG3K\WRVDQLWDU\ 636 0HDVXUHV² $VLDQ)LQDQFLDO&ULVLV² EDODQFHRIWUDGH86ELODWHUDOWUDGHZLWK (DVW$VLDQFRXQWULHV86²-DSDQ EDQNOHQGLQJSDWWHUQV&KLQD DFURVVJHRJUDSKLFDUHDV²LQ DJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRULQLQGXVWU\ ´%DQNHUV·.LQJGRPµ-DSDQ EDQNLQJV\VWHPJRYHUQPHQWFRQWURORI &KLQD² %LJ%DQJDVSURJUDPRIÀQDQFLDO OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ-DSDQ² ²² ELRPHGLFLQH&KLQD² ELRWHFKQRORJ\&KLQD HQWHUSULVHV+XPDQ*HQRPH 3URMHFWLQGXVWU\²5 ' FHQWHUVUHJDUGLQJSODQWFURSV ´EXEEOHµHFRQRP\-DSDQ %XVKDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ²
FDSLWDOFRQWUROV)',seeIRUHLJQGLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW chaebol &KLQHVH&RPPXQLVW3DUW\&&3 &RPPXQLVW3DUW\² &RPPXQLVWV² &ROG:DU² FROOHFWLYHV&KLQDHQWHUSULVHV FROOHFWLYL]DWLRQ&KLQD FRORQL]DWLRQ &RPPLWWHHRQ)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH ² FRPSXWHUKDUGZDUH-DSDQ² SDUWLFXODULQGXVWU\FDVHVLQ² VXEVLGLHVWR5 'UHODWHGSURMHFWV FRPSXWHUVRIWZDUH-DSDQ² SDUWLFXODULQGXVWU\FDVHVLQ² 5 'UHODWHGSURMHFWV ´FRQYR\V\VWHPµKLVWRU\RI² &XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ² ² danweiZRUNXQLW zhuguan danwei VXSHUYLVRU\XQLW 'HFLVLRQ&RQFHUQLQJWKH5HIRUPRIWKH 6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\0DQDJHPHQW 6\VWHP &KLQD² 'HFLVLRQRQ6HYHUDO3UREOHPV)DFLQJ WKH(QWKXVLDVWLF3URPRWLRQRI1RQ JRYHUQPHQWDO7HFKQRORJ\(QWHUSULVHV 'HFLVLRQVRQ$FFHOHUDWLQJ6 7 'HYHORSPHQW &KLQD GHFRPPXQL]DWLRQ&KLQD GHPRFUDF\DQG&KLQDDQG-DSDQ ²² GHPRFUDWLFFHQWUDOLVP&KLQD²
Index 'HQJ;LDRSLQJ² ²VRXWKHUQLQVSHFWLRQWRXU GHSHQGHQF\WKHRU\ GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV² ²ODWH/'&V UROHRI)',LQ² GHYHORSPHQWDVFRPSDUDWLYHHFRQRPLF VHFWRU²´GHYHORSPHQWDOLVPµ NH\FRPSRQHQWVRI(DVW$VLDQ FRXQWULHVSODQQLQJ-DSDQ²&KLQD FRPSDULVRQ²VRFLDOJRDOV&KLQD ² GHYHORSPHQWDOPRGHOVFRPSDULVRQRI -DSDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVUHODWLQJ WR²-DSDQNH\FRPSRQHQWVRI ²-DSDQOLPLWDWLRQVRI² /DWLQ$PHULFDVRFLDOLVWSODQQHG GHYHORSPHQWLPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQ LQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ,6, DQGH[SRUW RULHQWHGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ(2, PRGHOV ² GHYHORSPHQWDOSURFHVV&KLQDDQG*UHDW /HDS)RUZDUG*/) RYHUYLHZRI SRVW*/)&XOWXUDO5HYROXWLRQ DQG0DRVXFFHVVLRQ²SRVWZDU UHFRYHU\DQGVRFLDOLVWFRQVWUXFWLRQ ²UHIRUPHUD² GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH'6 ² FDSLWDOLVW&KLQD·VGHYLDWLRQIURP GHYHORSPHQWDOFRPPXQLWLHV NH\SROLWLFDOGHYHORSPHQWVRI´ORFDO GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVµ0DRLVW PRGHORXWFRPHVDVVRFLDWHVZLWK SRVWGHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHWKHRULHV RIUHODWLQJWR&KLQD² 'LHW²² GRPHVWLFFRQVWLWXHQFLHV-DSDQ LQYROYHPHQWLQOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ (DVW$VLDQQHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV 1,&V ²²² ²² (FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQsee6WDWH (FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQ&KLQD ´HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW]RQHVµ('=V &KLQD² HFRQRPLFJURZWK&KLQD² DQGEDQNOHQGLQJ² FRPSDULVRQZLWK-DSDQ FURVVSURYLQFLDOYDULDWLRQ²DQG )',FRQWULEXWLRQWR²DQG ÀQDQFLDOSROLWLFVRIÀQDQFLDO V\VWHPORFDODQGORFDO
GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHVDQGVRFLDOLVW SODQQLQJ HFRQRPLFJURZWK-DSDQ PDFUR PRGHOOLPLWDWLRQVRIPRGHOVRI ² HFRQRPLFJURZWKWKHRULHVRI² HFRQRPLFKLVWRU\SRVWZDU-DSDQ² HFRQRPLFLGHRORJ\OLEHUDOseeOLEHUDO HFRQRPLFLGHRORJ\ HFRQRPLFLQVWLWXWLRQV&KLQD LQWHUQDWLRQDO-DSDQ (FRQRPLF3ODQQLQJ$JHQF\(3$ HFRQRPLFUHIRUP&KLQD² HQWUHSUHQHXUV&KLQD ²² HQWUHSUHQHXULDOUROHRIWKHVWDWH HQWUHSUHQHXUVKLSLQGLYLGXDOgetihu H[SRUW&KLQD² GHFHQWUDOL]HGDXWKRULW\RIDQG IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW)', ²²DQGIRUHLJQ LQYHVWHGHQWHUSULVHV),(V ²DQG PLJUDQWZRUNHUVDQGPRQHWDU\ SROLF\²RULHQWHGJURZWK RULHQWHGLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ² ²RULHQWHGPDQXIDFWXULQJ VKDUHRIZRUOGPDUNHWJURZWK² DQGWHFKQRORJ\² ²²DQG79(V86 ELODWHUDOWUDGHZLWK$VLDQFRXQWULHV DQG:72² H[SRUW-DSDQ²² ²FRPSXWHU KDUGZDUHFRPSXWHUVRIWZDUH ([SRUW²,PSRUW%DQN² OLEHUDOL]DWLRQFDVHVRIDQG86WUDGH :72FDVHV H[SRUWOHGJURZWKWUDGHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ RI )LIWHHQWK3DUW\&RQJUHVV&KLQD ÀQDQFHDVFRPSDUDWLYHHFRQRPLF VHFWRU²LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVLQGXULQJ KLJKJURZWKSHULRGDVRSHUDWLRQDO PHDVXUHRIOLEHUDOL]DWLRQUHODWHGWR UHIRUPÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV ÀQDQFH&KLQDEDQNOHQGLQJ ²&KLQD²-DSDQFRPSDULVRQ ²ÀQDQFLDO V\VWHPRYHUYLHZ²IRUHLJQGLUHFW
Index LQYHVWPHQW)', ²VWDWHOHG WHFKQRORJ\:72 ÀQDQFH-DSDQ² FRQYR\V\VWHPIRUHLJQGLUHFW LQYHVWPHQW)', LQWHUQDWLRQDO -DSDQ²&KLQD FRPSDULVRQ² keiretsuOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI PDQXIDFWXULQJOLQNDJHVSROLWLFV RI )LQDQFLDO)XQFWLRQ(DUO\5HVWRUDWLRQ/DZ -DSDQ ÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV&KLQDDFFHVVRI IRUHLJQIRUPDOJRYHUQPHQW FRQWURORILQIRUPDO ÀQDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQV-DSDQ² IDLOXUHRI IRUHLJQ IXQGLQJRIJOREDOL]DWLRQ JRYHUQPHQWOLQNVWRLQWHUQDWLRQDO ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQSULYDWH UHVWUXFWXULQJRI-DSDQ ² )LQDQFLDO3ODQQLQJ%XUHDX-DSDQ ÀQDQFLDOVHFWRUUHODWLRQWR GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWHPRGHO ÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU&KLQD FRPSDULVRQZLWK-DSDQ² OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ&KLQDUHIRUP RI²²V\VWHPYDULDWLRQ FURVVSURYLQFLDO&KLQD:72 ÀQDQFLDOVHFWRU-DSDQ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIUHVWUXFWXULQJRI )LQDQFLDO6HUYLFHV$JHQF\)6$ -DSDQ ²² )LQDQFLDO6XSHUYLVRU\$JHQF\)6X$ -DSDQ² ÀUHEOLJKWErwina amylovara LQUHODWLRQ WR86²-DSDQ:72GLVSXWHFDVHRQ LPSRUWDWLRQRIDSSOHV² )LUVW)LYH
SROLF\WRZDUG²LQÁRZVWR&KLQD SDWWHUQVRI²LQÁRZVWR&KLQDWRS VHYHQFRXQWULHVODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ &KLQD²ODWHOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ-DSDQ ²OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ-DSDQ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQ-DSDQ²&KLQDFRPSDULVRQ ²RXWZDUGUROHLQ&KLQD·V WUDGHVHFWRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRI &KLQD² )RUHLJQ(FRQRPLF/DZ-DSDQ² )RUHLJQ([FKDQJH&RPPLWWHH-DSDQ ² )RUHLJQ([FKDQJH&RQWURO/DZ)(&/ ² )RUHLJQ([FKDQJH/DZ)(/ ² ² )RUHLJQ([FKDQJHDQG7UDGH&RQWURO/DZ IRUHLJQLQYHVWHGHQWHUSULVHV),(V &KLQD ² )RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQWLQ-DSDQ'HYHORSPHQW &RUSRUDWLRQ),1' )RUHLJQ,QYHVWPHQW/DZ),/ ² ² IRUHLJQWUDGHFRUSRUDWLRQV)7&V &KLQD )RUHLJQ7UDGH/DZ&KLQD-DSDQ )25(;)RUHLJQ([FKDQJH ²² IRXUOLWWOHGUDJRQV )RXU0RGHUQL]DWLRQV IUDJPHQWHGDXWKRULWDULDQLVP&KLQHVH SROLF\PDNLQJ² )XNXGD3ULPH0LQLVWHU-DSDQ )XML%DQN² )XML3KRWR)LOPFRPSDQ\ *HQHUDO$JUHHPHQWRQ7DULIIVDQG7UDGH *$77 see also:RUOG7UDGH2UJDQL]DWLRQ:72 *HUPDQ\² DVODWHGHYHORSHU *HUVFKHQNURQ$OH[DQGHU *HUVFKHQNURQLDQPRGHO getihuLQGLYLGXDOHQWUHSUHQHXUV see HQWUHSUHQHXUVLQGLYLGXDO *LQL,QGH[ JOREDOPDUNHWV\VWHP JOREDOL]DWLRQ²² DQG&KLQDLPSDFW RQ-DSDQ·VÀQDQFLDOUHIRUPV² LPSDFWRQOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ²DQGODWH GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV *UHDW%ULWDLQ
Index *UHDW/HDS)RUZDUG² */) *URXSRI7HQFRXQWULHV KLJKWHFKQRORJ\seeWHFKQRORJ\ +RQJ.RQJ²² ² VWRFNPDUNHW KRXVHKROGUHJLVWUDWLRQhukou V\VWHP &KLQD +XD*XRIHQJ +XPDQ*HQRPH3URMHFWseeELRWHFKQRORJ\ &KLQD +\RJR%DQN ,%0² LPSRUWOLEHUDOL]DWLRQ²²² ELRWHFKQRORJ\FDVHVLQ:72 86²-DSDQ²FRQWUROVDQG IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW)', JURZWKRI-DSDQLPSRUWUHJLPH OLFHQVHVPHDVXUHVSURKLELWLRQV RQTXRWDVHFWRUWDULIIV WHFKQRORJ\SROLF\² 86²-DSDQWUDGH´YROXQWDU\ LPSRUWH[SDQVLRQµsee´YROXQWDU\ LPSRUWH[SDQVLRQµ9,( LPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQLQGXVWULDOL]DWLRQ,6, ²² LPSRUWVXEVWLWXWLRQSROLFLHV ² LQFRPHGLVSDULWLHVLQHTXDOLWLHVDQG &KLQD ,QGXVWULDO%DQNRI-DSDQ,%- LQGXVWULDOJURZWK&KLQD² LQGXVWULDOUHYROXWLRQ-DSDQ LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV DGYDQFHG²DQG PHUFDQWLOLVPDQGPXOWLQDWLRQDO FRUSRUDWLRQV01&V QHZO\ 1,&V see(DVW$VLDQQHZO\ LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV1,&V ,QIRUPDWLRQ3URFHVVLQJ3URPRWLRQ $VVRFLDWLRQ,3$ LQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\,7 &KLQDLQGXVWU\²:$3, :/$1$XWKHQWLFDWLRQDQG3ULYDF\ ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH ² LQVWDELOLW\ÀQDQFLDO-DSDQVRFLDO DQGSROLWLFDO&KLQDVRFLDODQG SROLWLFDO-DSDQ ,QVWLWXWHRI&RPSXWLQJ7HFKQRORJ\&KLQD ²
LQWHUHVWJURXSV ,QWHULP&RPPLVVLRQRQ3K\WRVDQLWDU\ 0HDVXUHVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO3ODQW 3URWHFWLRQ&RQYHQWLRQ,33& LQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWDQG &KLQDHFRQRPLF DQG-DSDQ² LQWHUQDWLRQDOÀQDQFHsee ÀQDQFH LQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQG,0) ² LQYHVWPHQW$VLDLQWHUUHJLRQDODV FRPSDUDWLYHHFRQRPLFVHFWRU ²GHÀFLWRI GRPHVWLFWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIIRUHLJQ ²IRUHLJQGLUHFWseeIRUHLJQ GLUHFWLQYHVWPHQWLQKXPDQFDSLWDO LQZDUGIRUHLJQGLUHFWsee inward IRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW,)', OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIPXOWLQDWLRQDO ²RXWJRLQJRXWZDUG IRUHLJQGLUHFWseeRXWZDUGIRUHLJQ GLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW2)', SULYDWH GRPHVWLFVWDWHFDSLWDO LQYHVWPHQW&KLQDOLEHUDOL]DWLRQRI ORFDOL]HG´VSHFLDO LQYHVWPHQWDUHDVµ² LQYHVWPHQW-DSDQHGXFDWLRQ OLEHUDOL]DWLRQRIRYHUVHDV -DSDQHVH² ´LQYHVWPHQWGHÀFLHQWµ-DSDQ LQZDUGIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW,)', ²²² ² ´LURQULFHERZOµ ,ZDNXUD0LVVLRQ² Japan – Alcoholic Beverages:72 GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWFDVH² Japan – Apples:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQW FDVH² -DSDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN -DSDQ(OHFWURQLF&RPSXWHU&RPSDQ\ -(&& ² -DSDQ([WHUQDO7UDGH2UJDQL]DWLRQ -(752 Japan – Film:72GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQW FDVH² -DSDQHVH)DLU7UDGH&RPPLVVLRQ-)7& ² -DSDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWERQGV-*%V ² -DSDQHVH7D[DWLRQ6SHFLDO0HDVXUHV/DZ
Index -RLQW9HQWXUH/DZ-9/ ² jusen² keiretsu²DV VRXUFHVRIÀQDQFHIRUFRUSRUDWLRQV .RL]XPL-XQLFKLUR3ULPH0LQLVWHU-DSDQ .RUHD² ²1RUWK 6RXWK²²²²² .XRPLQWDQJ.07 LQ7DLZDQ /DUJH5HWDLO6WRUH ´ODWHLQGXVWULDOL]HUVµ /DWLQ$PHULFD /DZRQ)RUHLJQ6HUYLFH)LUPV /HJHQG&RPSXWHU OLEHUDOHFRQRPLFLGHRORJLFDOVKLIWV GHVFULSWLRQHFRQRPLFLGHRORJ\ /LEHUDO'HPRFUDWLF3DUW\/'3 ²²² OLJKWLQGXVWU\&KLQDDQG GHYHORSPHQWDOVWDWH /LQX[ /LTXRU7D[/DZ² OLWHUDF\UDWH&KLQD /RQJ7HUP&UHGLW%DQNRI-DSDQ/WG /7&% PDQXIDFWXULQJ²JRYHUQPHQWÀQDQFH OLQNDJHVSRVWZDU-DSDQ² GHUHJXODWLRQRI² 0DR=HGRQJ²² ²SRVW²² ² 0HLML PHUFDQWLOLVP PHWKRGRORJ\EDVLVIRUFRPSDULQJ-DSDQ DQG&KLQD 0LFURVRIW:LQGRZVUHODWHGVRIWZDUH 0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH)RUHVWU\DQG )LVKHULHV0$)) -DSDQ² 0LQLVWU\RI(FRQRP\7UDGHDQG,QGXVWU\ 0(7, -DSDQ 0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ7UDGHDQG(FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ02)7(& &KLQD 0LQLVWU\RI,QWHUQDWLRQDO7UDGHDQG ,QGXVWU\0,7, -DSDQ ² 0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF0DQDJHPHQW
+RPH$IIDLUVDQG3RVWVDQG 7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV03+37 -DSDQ ² 0LQLVWU\RI6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\ 0267 &KLQD 0LQLVWU\RI7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV&KLQD minyingQRQJRYHUQPHQW HQWHUSULVHV 0LWVXL² 0LWVXELVKL²´0LWVXELVKL VKRFNµ MOF-tan02)OLDLVRQ PRQHWDU\SROLF\&KLQDDQGUHIRUPHUD GHYHORSPHQW²DQG-DSDQ .RUHD7DLZDQ 0RQVDQWR PRVWIDYRUHGQDWLRQ0)1 &KLQD -DSDQ 0XOWL)LEHU$JUHHPHQW0)$ &KLQD -DSDQ PXOWLQDWLRQDOFRUSRUDWLRQV01&V ²²² ²²² ² 1$6'$4 1DWLRQDO3HRSOH·V&RQJUHVV ² 1DWLRQDOLVWV&KLQHVH² QHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWU\1,& see(DVW$VLDQQHZO\LQGXVWULDOL]HG FRXQWULHV1,&V 1LNNHLLQGH[ 1LQWK)LYH
Index SDUW\VWDWH²²² DQGFXOWXUHRISROLWLFDO SDWURQDJH 3HRSOH·V%DQNRI&KLQD3%& ² ² 3HRSOH·V/LEHUDWLRQ$UP\3/$ DQG EXVLQHVVHQWHUSULVHV 3HUPDQHQW1RUPDO7UDGLQJ5HODWLRQV 3175 3ODQW3URWHFWLRQ/DZ² ´SROLF\ORDQVµ SULYDWHHQWHUSULVHVsiying qiye &KLQD SURSHUW\ULJKWV&KLQD LQWHOOHFWXDO 3URYLVLRQVIRU(QFRXUDJHPHQWRI)RUHLJQ ,QYHVWPHQW&KLQD 5HG)ODJ ´UHGKDWVµ UHIRUPHUD&KLQD²SUHVHQW ²RI &KLQD·VFXUUHQF\H[FKDQJHV\VWHP UHVHDUFKDQGGHYHORSPHQW5 ' &KLQD -DSDQ 5HWDLOHUV)DLU7UDGH&RXQFLO 5RXWH&KLQD UXUDOFUHGLWFRRSHUDWLYHV 6HPLFRQGXFWRU$JUHHPHQW86²-DSDQ shochu² ´6LOLFRQ9DOOH\µ&KLQD 6LQJDSRUH²² siying qiye see private enterprises VRFLDOHTXDOLW\&KLQDLQHTXDOLW\&KLQD -DSDQ VRFLDOLVWWRPDUNHWWUDQVLWLRQ&KLQD ²FRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQ&KLQD WKHIRUPHU6RYLHW8QLRQDQG(DVW (XURSHDQ)68(( FRXQWULHV 6RXWK.RUHDsee .RUHD 6RYLHW8QLRQ²² VSHFLDOHFRQRPLF]RQH6(= &KLQD 6WDWH'HYHORSPHQW3ODQQLQJ&RPPLVVLRQ 6'3& &KLQD 6WDWH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQ&KLQD ² 6WDWH(FRQRPLFDQG>GRPHVWLF@7UDGH &RPPLVVLRQ6(7& &KLQD VWDWHRZQHGHQWHUSULVHV&KLQD62(V ²² ²OD\RIIVLQ
6WDWH3ODQQLQJ&RPPLVVLRQ&KLQD 6WDWH6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\&RPPLVVLRQ 667& &KLQD² 6WUXFWXUDO,PSHGLPHQWV,QLWLDWLYH6,, -DSDQ 6XPLWRPR² 6XPLWRPR²0LWVXELVKL)LQDQFLDO*URXS ´VXQULVHµLQGXVWULHV² ´VXQVHWµVHFWRUV² 6XSHU+LJKSHUIRUPDQFH&RPSXWHU3URMHFW ² 7DLZDQ²²² ²² ²6WUDLWV &ULVLV 7DNHQDND+HL]R WDULIIUDWHTXRWD754 V\VWHP² WHFKQRORJ\DVFRPSDUDWLYHHFRQRPLF VHFWRU²H[SRUWVRI&KLQD IRUHLJQLQYHVWPHQWLQKLJK WHFKQRORJ\KLJKWHFKQRORJ\VHFWRUV LQ&KLQDLQGXVWULDOOLQNVWRVWUDWHJLF JRDOV&KLQDSROLFLHV-DSDQ² SROLF\5 '&KLQD WHFKQRQDWLRQDOLVP&KLQD² GHÀQLWLRQRI-DSDQ WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVLQGXVWU\-DSDQ ²SDUWLFXODUFDVHVLQ² 7HQWK)LYH
Index 8QLWHG)LQDQFLDO*URXSRI-DSDQ8)- ² 8UXJXD\5RXQG 86²-DSDQWUDGHUHODWLRQV² US – Malt Beverages YDOXHDGGHGWD[9$7 ´YROXQWDU\LPSRUWH[SDQVLRQµ9,( :$3,:/$1$XWKHQWLFDWLRQDQG 3ULYDF\,QIUDVWUXFWXUH seeLQIRUPDWLRQ WHFKQRORJ\ :HVWHUQ(OHFWULF :KROO\)RUHLJQRZQHG(QWHUSULVHV/DZ &KLQD
:RUOG%DQN²² :RUOG7UDGH2UJDQL]DWLRQ:72 ²²² &KLQDHQWU\WR²² ²² GLVSXWHVHWWOHPHQWFDVHV86²-DSDQ ²DQG-DSDQ²² :X
eBooks – at www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk
A library at your fingertips!
eBooks are electronic versions of printed books. You can store them on your PC/laptop or browse them online. They have advantages for anyone needing rapid access to a wide variety of published, copyright information. eBooks can help your research by enabling you to bookmark chapters, annotate text and use instant searches to find specific words or phrases. Several eBook files would fit on even a small laptop or PDA. NEW: Save money by eSubscribing: cheap, online access to any eBook for as long as you need it.
Annual subscription packages We now offer special low-cost bulk subscriptions to packages of eBooks in certain subject areas. These are available to libraries or to individuals. For more information please contact [email protected] We’re continually developing the eBook concept, so keep up to date by visiting the website.
www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk