Water for Food in a Changing World (Contributions from the Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy)

Water for Food in a Changing World There is not enough water globally for all the things humans need and want water to...

Author: Alberto Garrido | Helen Ingram

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Water for Food in a Changing World

There is not enough water globally for all the things humans need and want water to do for us. Water supply bubbles are bursting in China, the Middle East and India with potentially serious implications for the global economy and for political stability. Even the United States is depleting groundwater on average 25 percent faster than it is being replenished. Our thirst for water grows with our population, EXWWKHDPRXQWRIIUHVKZDWHUDYDLODEOHRQ(DUWKLV¿[HG,IZHDVVXPH³EXVLQHVV as usual” by 2050 about 40 percent of the projected global population of 9.4 billion LVH[SHFWHGWREHIDFLQJZDWHUVWUHVVRUVFDUFLW\:LWKLQFUHDVLQJFOLPDWHYDULDELOLW\ being predicted by global climate models, we are likely also to have more people without adequate water more of the time, even in water-rich regions. Irrigation productivity rose dramatically over the past 40 years as a result of the Green Revolution. However, even if we disregard the environmental impacts caused by that revolution, we are no nearer to achieving global food security than ZHZHUH\HDUVDJRDVHYHU\WLPHZHFRPHFORVHWR¿OOLQJWKHIRRGSURGXFWLRQ gap population growth and ecosystem decline associated with water diversions to human purposes set us back. Our natural and agricultural ecosystems are trying to tell us something. This book pursues these overarching themes connecting to water and food production at global and regional scales. The collection offers a comprehensive discussion of all relevant issues, and offers a wide-ranging discussion with the aim of contributing to the global debate about water and food crises. Alberto Garrido is Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the Technical University of Madrid, Spain. He is the Director of the Research Centre for the Management of Agricultural and Environmental Risks, a research centre of the Technical University of Madrid, and serves on the Advisory Committee of the Rosenberg International Forum of Water Policy. Helen Ingram is a Professor Emerita at the University of California, USA, and a research fellow at the Southwest Center at the University of Arizona, USA. She is also a member of the Advisory Committee of the Rosenberg International Water Forum.

Contributions from the Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy (GLWHGE\+HQU\-9DX[-U

1 Managing Water Resources in a Time of Global Change 0RXQWDLQVYDOOH\VDQGÀRRGSODLQV Edited by Alberto Garrido and Ariel Dinar 2 Water for Food in a Changing World Edited by Alberto Garrido and Helen Ingram

Water for Food in a Changing World

Edited by Alberto Garrido and Helen Ingram

First published 2011 by Routledge 3DUN6TXDUH0LOWRQ3DUN$ELQJGRQ2[RQ2;51 Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 7KLUG$YHQXH1HZ
This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2011. To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk. © 2011 Selection and editorial matter, The Regents of the University of California; individual chapters, the contributors $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG1RSDUWRIWKLVERRNPD\EHUHSULQWHGRUUHSURGXFHGRU utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or UHJLVWHUHGWUDGHPDUNVDQGDUHXVHGRQO\IRULGHQWL¿FDWLRQDQGH[SODQDWLRQ without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Water for food in a changing world / edited by Alberto Garrido and Helen Ingram. p. cm. ,QFOXGHVELEOLRJUDSKLFDOUHIHUHQFHVDQGLQGH[ 1. Water-supply–Management. 2. Water-supply–Management– International cooperation. 3. Integrated water development. 4. Food security. 5. Environmental policy–International cooperation. I. Garrido, Alberto, 1964- II. Ingram, Helen M., 1937TC409.W368 2011 363.6'1–dc22 2010039922

ISBN 0-203-82841-0 Master e-book ISBN

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Contents

/LVWRI¿JXUHVDQGWDEOHV Notes on Contributors Preface

viii [LL [YL

+(15<9$8;-5

Part I

Introduction 1 Converging global food and water trade-offs

1 3

52%(576$1')25'

PART II

Innovations in the agricultural response to the sustainability challenge 2 Optimizing water productivity in food production

11 13

ELÍAS FERERES

3 Modern agriculture under stress: lessons from the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia

33

:(1'<&5$,.$1'-$0(6&/($9(5

4 Integrated watershed management: towards sustainable solutions in Africa $ . , 6 6 $ % $ + 5 , + , / 0 < 6 $ / / < 0 $ 7 7 + ( : 0 C & $ 5 7 1 ( < 5 ( * $ 6 6 $ 1 $ 0 $ 5 $ 6 ( / ( 6 + , % ( . ( / ( $ : 8 / $ & + ( : %$5%$5$9$1.233(1$1''$$19$1522,-(1

50

vi Contents 5 Lessons for Spain: a critical assessment of the role of science and society

73

$/%(572*$55,'2$1'$1$,*/(6,$6

PART III

Counting the drops and the mouths to feed: food production and trade 6 Back to basics on water as constraint for global food production: opportunities and limitations

101

103

0$/,1)$/.(10$5.$1'-2+$152&.675g0

7 Globalization of water resources through virtual water trade

117

+21*<$1*$1'$/(;$1'(5-%=(+1'(5

PART IV

Water for the environment 8 Balancing water for people and nature

133 135

URIEL SAFRIEL

9 Optimizing water for life

171

'$1,(/3/28&.6

PART V

Revitalized water governance

197

10 Water science and policy in a changing world: perceptions from a practitioner

199

-2+1%5,6&2(

11 Promises under construction: the evolving paradigm for water governance and the case of Northern Mexico

222

MARGARET WILDER

12 Beyond universal remedies for good water governance: a political and contextual approach +(/(1,1*5$0

241

Contents 13 Water policies in Spain: balancing water for food and water for nature

vii 262

& 2 1 6 8 ( / 2 9 $ 5 ( / $ 2 5 7 ( * $

PART VI

Conclusions

309

14 Can the world feed itself sustainably?

311

$ / % ( 5 7 2 * $ 5 5 , ' 2 + ( / ( 1 , 1 * 5 $ 0 $ 1 ' 52%(576$1')25'

Index

331

Figures and tables

Figures 2.1

Trends in average wheat yield for Australia, Egypt, and for the world 2.2a Relationships between yield and water use for wheat 2.2b Relationships between yield and water use for sugarbeet 2.3 Simulation of relative corn yield under two levels of irrigation uniformity 3.1 Rainfall distribution in the Murray-Darling basin 3.2 Murray River system total annual irrigation diversions by State 3.3 Murray-Darling Rainfall Declines 2006–2007 0RQWKO\LQÀRZVLQWRWKH0XUUD\5LYHUV\VWHP 3.5 Growth in MDB irrigation diversions 3.6 Murray-Darling Basin annual mean temperature anomaly and eleven year trend 3.7 Monthly mean southeastern Australia rainfall, 1961–1990, 1996–2006 and anomaly 7RWDO0XUUD\V\VWHPLQÀRZDOO\HDUVRQUHFRUG 4.1 Map of the Great Ruaha River (FRQRPLFYDOXHRIFRRSHUDWLRQVWDWXVTXRYHUVXVIXOOFRRSHUDWLRQ 4.3 A river with a high sediment load a few minutes after torrential rains in Tigray, Ethiopia 4.4 Terracing and reforestation to halt erosion in highlands of Tigray, Ethiopia $VLJKWRIH[WUHPHODQGGHJUDGDWLRQLQ(DVWHUQ1LOH 5.1 Map of Spanish Autonomous Communities 5.2 Spanish farm acreage and output )DUPHFRQRPLFRXWSXW3HUKHFWDUHRXWSXW¼KDLQLUULJDWHGDQG rain-fed agriculture by provinces 1996–2006 5.4 Trends in irrigation techniques in Spain 6.1 The green-blue approach to water resource 6.2 Rainwater partitioning between green water in different lands DQGEOXHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVIRU.HQ\D

14 19 19 26 34 38 38 40 41 42 58 65 65 75 78 84–85 87 104

Figures and tables L[ 6.3

6.4 6.5 8.1 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10 9.12 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.7 13.8

Global-scale continental water balance and its estimated partitioning between green water resources in the soil and blue water resources in rivers and aquifers Assessment of transpiration versus available green water in the year 2000 Country-level LPJmL-simulated per capita green plus blue water for the year 2050 9LUWXDOZDWHUÀRZVE\UHJLRQVDYHUDJHIURPWR 1HWEOXHDQGJUHHQYLUWXDOZDWHUH[SRUWLQPDMRUH[SRUWLQJ FRXQWULHVDYHUDJHIURPWR Ecosystem services Loss of ecosystem service of soil conservation, due to damage to biodiversity (VWLPDWHGJOREDOYDOXHRIHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHVH[SUHVVHGDV percentage of the aggregated value of all global ecosystems The linkages between ecosystem services, human well-being and their direct and indirect drivers /LQNDJHVEHWZHHQRYHUH[SORLWDWLRQDQGLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQRIWKH water provision service Water-scarce regions of the world Populations in water-stressed countries from 1995 to 2050 Major river basins in the world Major groundwater aquifers in the world &KDQJHLQUXQRIILQIHUUHGIURPVWUHDPÀRZUHFRUGVZRUOGZLGH A current water stress indicator map The Everglades region in Southern Florida, USA The Aral Sea Region in Central Asia Chesapeake Bay on the eastern coast of the United States The River Murray in Australia 6XEEDVLQVRIWKH0LVVLVVLSSL5LYHUDQGWKH*XOIRI0H[LFR Major rivers in Europe $QQXDOJURZWKUDWHRIODUJHVWPXQLFLSDOLWLHV6RQRUD0H[LFR 1990–2005 Evolution of irrigated surface in Spain Surface and value of production in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture in Spain, 1996–2005 Productivity comparison between rain-fed and irrigated crops D WKH6SDQLVKDXWRQRPRXVFRPPXQLWLHVDQGE WKH6SDQLVK river basins :DWHUSURGXFWLYLW\E\ULYHUEDVLQ± 3URGXFWLYLW\RILUULJDWHGFURSV±DYHUDJH Total water use in agriculture by crop productivity range Total water demand by country in the Mediterranean ±

106 110 111 138 143 147 149 158 173 174 175 175 180 182 184 186 187 190 226 267 267 270 272

[ Figures and tables 13.13 13.17 13.18

:DWHUH[SORLWDWLRQLQGLFHVRIUHQHZDOQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVLQWKH Mediterranean countries for 2000 and 2025 :DWHUH[SORLWDWLRQLQGH[IRUDQG 5HGXFWLRQVLQZDWHULQÀRZVLQWKH6SDQLVKEDVLQV SURMHFWLRQV 7KHSROLF\FRQWH[WLQWKH(8DQGLUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUH The Spanish institutional framework of water management 7KH&$3&URVV&RPSOLDQFHVWUXFWXUH&$3UHIRUPRI 2YHUH[SORLWHGDTXLIHUVLQ6SDLQ 1LWUDWHYXOQHUDEOH]RQHVLQ6SDLQ Effects of the CAP reform on crop distribution in Spain ± Effects of the CAP reform in crop distribution in two Spanish UHJLRQV± 6SDLQ¶V1DWLRQDO,UULJDWLRQ3ODQ±

274 279

Tables 3.1

Murray River system allocations in April 2008, compared to long-term average 3.2 The impact of 20 percent lower water allocations on annual IDUPSUR¿W 5.1 Percentage of sectoral uses across main Autonomous Communities 5.2 Main crops, ranked by total value in 1995, 2000, 2004 and 2005 RXWRILUULJDWHGFURSVLQ6SDLQ .HQGDOO¶V7DXUDQNFRUUHODWLRQDQGLQFUHDVHVRILUULJDWHGODQG productivity increases in real 2000 euros 5.4 Forces of change and responses to irrigation in Spain 5.5 Area, water consumption and the water footprint by groups of crops in year 2001 6.1 Different estimates of additional food water requirements 6.2 Blue/green water availability differences by 2000 6.3 Some water shortage combinations foreseen by 2050 6.4 Some policy implications *OREDOYLUWXDOZDWHULPSRUWDQGH[SRUWDYHUDJHRYHU 1997–2001 1HWYLUWXDOZDWHULPSRUWE\FRXQWU\JURXSVDYHUDJHRI 1997–2001 1HWYLUWXDOZDWHULPSRUWLQ0(1$FRXQWULHV± 7.4 Characteristics of the Blue and Green water 8.1 Valuation of freshwater ecosystems in relation to valuation of all terrestrial, non-marine global ecosystems 13.1 Agriculture water use in the Spanish basins by crop productivity UDQJH±

40 76 ± 82 93 95 108 109 112 114 119 123 125 148

Figures and tables [L 13.2 Mediterranean countries with unsustainable water production indices 13.3 Effect of cost-recovery water tariffs in selected basins &$3'LUHFWSD\PHQWVDQG DQG6LQJOH)DUP 3D\PHQW 13.5 Irrigated surface and water use in pre and post CAP reform years :DWHUDQG$JULFXOWXUDO3ROLF\0DWUL[ 14.1 Basic water resources features of selected countries in Africa and Latin America

276 284–285 293 ± 314

Contributors

Akissa Bahri LV D UHVHDUFKHU ZRUNLQJ LQ WKH WKUHH RI¿FHV RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QVWLWXWH LQ $IULFD $FFUD *KDQD IRU :HVWHUQ $IULFD 3UHWRULD6RXWK$IULFD IRU6RXWKHUQ$IULFDDQG$GGLV$EDED(WKLRSLD IRU WKH1LOH%DVLQDQG(DVWHUQ$IULFD Seleshi Bekele Awulachew LV D UHVHDUFKHU ZRUNLQJ LQ WKH WKUHH RI¿FHV RI WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO:DWHU0DQDJHPHQW,QVWLWXWHLQ$IULFD$FFUD*KDQD IRU:HVWHUQ $IULFD 3UHWRULD 6RXWK $IULFD IRU 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD DQG $GGLV $EDED (WKLRSLD IRUWKH1LOH%DVLQDQG(DVWHUQ$IULFD John Briscoe has lived in South Africa, the United States, Bangladesh, Mozambique, India, and Brazil and has worked as a water practitioner and researcher throughout the world. He was the senior water advisor and country director for Brazil at the World Bank. He is now on the faculty of the School of (QJLQHHULQJ6FKRRORI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQG.HQQHG\6FKRRODW+DUYDUG8QLversity. James Cleaver has been a member of the staff at the MDBC since 2006. Prior to this, James studied agriculture and public policy, with a focus on water resource management at the University of Melbourne, Australia. Wendy Craik ZDV DSSRLQWHG FKLHI H[HFXWLYH RI WKH 0XUUD\±'DUOLQJ %DVLQ Commission in 2004. Prior to this, Wendy was president of the Australian 1DWLRQDO&RPSHWLWLRQ&RXQFLOFKDLURIWKH$XVWUDOLDQ)LVKHULHV0DQDJHPHQW $XWKRULW\ DQG FKDLU RI WKH $XVWUDOLDQ 1DWLRQDO 5XUDO $GYLVRU\ &RXQFLO Wendy is a member of the Board of the Foundation for Rural and Regional Renewal and the World Fish Center. She has been a member of a variety of other boards and advisory councils and was awarded an Order of Australia in 2007 for her contribution to natural resource management and rural policy. Malin Falkenmark is a professor emerita of Applied and International HydrolRJ\ DW WKH IRUPHU 6ZHGLVK 1DWXUDO 6FLHQFHV 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO 6KH LV QRZ with the Stockholm International Water Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University.

Contributors [LLL Elias Fereres is a professor in the School of Agricultural and Forestry Engineering, University of Córdoba, Spain, and researcher at the Institute of SustainaEOH$JULFXOWXUH6FLHQWL¿F5HVHDUFK&RXQFLORI6SDLQ&6,& +HREWDLQHGKLV PhD and worked at the University of California, Davis between 1972 and +HVHUYHGDVSUHVLGHQWRI&6,& DQG6HFUHWDU\RI6WDWHIRU8QLYHUVLWLHV DQG 5HVHDUFK IRU WKH JRYHUQPHQW RI 6SDLQ ± +H LV D member and former president of the Royal Academy of Engineering of Spain, and a member of Academia Europaea. Ana Iglesias is a professor of agricultural economics at the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid. Her research focuses on understanding the interactions of global change with agriculture and water resources. She has contributed to SURJUDPV RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV DQG (XURSHDQ DQG QDWLRQDO HQYLURQPHQWDO programs. Her collaborative work has been published in more than 100 research papers. Barbara van KoppenLVDUHVHDUFKHUZRUNLQJLQWKHWKUHHRI¿FHVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QVWLWXWH LQ $IULFD $FFUD *KDQD IRU :HVWHUQ $IULFD3UHWRULD6RXWK$IULFD IRU6RXWKHUQ$IULFDDQG$GGLV$EDED(WKLRSLD IRUWKH1LOH%DVLQDQG(DVWHUQ$IULFD Daniel P. Loucks is a professor in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and in the Institute of Public Affairs at Cornell University. His teaching and research focuses on the application of systems analysis methods, environmental engineering, economics, and ecology to the planning and management of regional environmental and water resource systems. He has served as a visiting professor at other universities in the United States, Australia, $XVWULD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 1HWKHUODQGV DQ HFRQRPLVW DW WKH :RUOG %DQN D research associate at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; and as a consultant to other international organizations, government agencies, DQGHQJLQHHULQJ¿UPV Matthew McCartneyLVDUHVHDUFKHUZRUNLQJLQWKHWKUHHRI¿FHVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QVWLWXWH LQ $IULFD $FFUD *KDQD IRU :HVWHUQ $IULFD3UHWRULD6RXWK$IULFD IRU6RXWKHUQ$IULFDDQG$GGLV$EDED(WKLRSLD IRUWKH1LOH%DVLQDQG(DVWHUQ$IULFD Regassa NamaraLVDUHVHDUFKHUZRUNLQJLQWKHWKUHHRI¿FHVRIWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QVWLWXWH LQ $IULFD $FFUD *KDQD IRU :HVWHUQ $IULFD 3UHWRULD6RXWK$IULFD IRU6RXWKHUQ$IULFDDQG$GGLV$EDED(WKLRSLD IRU WKH1LOH%DVLQDQG(DVWHUQ$IULFD Johan Rockström is with the Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, and Stockholm Environment Institute. Daniel van RooijenLVDQHQYLURQPHQWDOHQJLQHHUDQGKDVFDUULHGRXWH[WHQVLYH research on the interactions between urban water use and agriculture and the

[LY Contributors environment up- and downstream cities in Ghana, Ethiopia, and India. In the SDVW\HDUVKHZDVEDVHGDWWKH,:0,*KDQDRI¿FH&XUUHQWO\KHLVZULWLQJXS his PhD research at the Water Engineering and Development Centre, LoughERURXJK8QLYHUVLW\8. Uriel Safriel is a professor of ecology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; former director of the Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research of Ben-Gurion 8QLYHUVLW\RIWKH1HJHY,VUDHOFKDLURIWKH([HFXWLYH&RPPLWWHHRIWKH6FLHQWL¿F $GYLVRU\ %RDUG RI WKH =XFNHUEHUJ ,QVWLWXWH RI :DWHU 6FLHQFH DQG Technology; and author of chapters of IPCC and Millennium Ecosystem Assessment reports. Hilmy Sally KDV DFDGHPLF TXDOL¿FDWLRQV LQ &LYLO DQG :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV (QJLQHHULQJDQGKDVRYHU\HDUVRISURIHVVLRQDOH[SHULHQFHLQDJULFXOWXUHZDWHU and natural resources research, development, and capacity-strengthening in over 20 countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Robert Sandford LV WKH &DQDGLDQ FKDLU RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HFDGH³:DWHUIRU/LIH´DQDWLRQDOSDUWQHUVKLSLQLWLDWLYHWKDWDLPVWRDGYDQFH long-term water quality and availability issues in response to climate change in Canada and abroad. He is also the director of the Western Watersheds CliPDWH5HVHDUFK&ROODERUDWLYHDQRWIRUSUR¿WUHVHDUFKLQVWLWXWHWKDWSURPRWHV understanding of climate impacts on river systems originating in the Rocky Mountains. He is also a member of the Advisory Committee of the Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy. Consuelo Varela-Ortega is an associate professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the Technical University of Madrid, with research interests in agricultural policy and the environment, water economics and polices, land market, and agricultural institutions. She has collaborated with QXPHURXV LQWHUQDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV )$2 ,'% :% DQG KDV SXEOLVKHG H[WHQVLYHO\LQVFLHQWL¿FMRXUQDOVDQGERRNV6KHVHUYHVRQWKHDGYLVRU\ERDUGV of CIRAD, CGIAR, and IFPRI. Margaret Wilder is a geographer in Latin American Studies at the Udall Center IRU 6WXGLHV LQ 3XEOLF 3ROLF\ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI $UL]RQD 7XFVRQ +HU UHVHDUFK IRFXVHVRQZDWHUJRYHUQDQFHDQGGHYHORSPHQWLQ0H[LFRFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQG the political ecology of water in Latin America. She is a co-private investigaWRU RQ FOLPDWHZDWHU SURMHFWV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV±0H[LFR ERUGHU UHJLRQ DQG has published in World Development, Natural Resources Journal, and others. Hong Yang is with the Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology, and is currently a senior scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology. She is the leader of the Water, Food and Environment Studies group in the Department of Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment and Modelling.

Contributors [Y Alexander J. B. ZehnderLVFXUUHQWO\WKHVFLHQWL¿FGLUHFWRURIWKH$OEHUWD:DWHU 5HVHDUFK ,QVWLWXWH LQ &DQDGD +H LV DOVR DI¿OLDWHG ZLWK 1DQ\DQJ 7HFKQRORgical University in Singapore for teaching and consulting.

Preface

This volume, the second in a series published by Routledge for the Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy, contains the papers commissioned for )RUXP9,ZKLFKZDVKHOGLQ=DUDJR]D6SDLQLQ-XQH7KHWKHPHRIWKDW Forum was Water for Food in a Changing World. There are few topics more important to the water world today and the papers published here formed the basis for discussions that occupied the Forum for two and a half days. The need WR IHHG WKH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WKUHH ELOOLRQ PRUH VRXOV ZKR DUH H[SHFWHG E\ coupled with the imperative to maintain water-based environmental assets which provide crucial services as well as amenity values will press hard on available water resources. The costs of failing to meet these objectives, whether measured in dollars, lives or the quality of life, will be very high. The topics discussed at the Forum included issues surrounding the availability of water to meet these increased global demands; the likelihood of developing new irrigation technology which would stretch water further in the production of food; the costs of widespread environmental collapse and consequent loss of environmental services; the role of trade in virtual water; and the importance of devising appropriate water management institutions. The discussions were also LQIRUPHG E\ FDVH VWXGLHV GRFXPHQWLQJ H[SHULHQFH LQ PDQDJLQJ VHYHUH ZDWHU shortages in countries such as Australia and Spain. Discussions revealed that ¿QGLQJ VXI¿FLHQW ZDWHU IRU ERWK DJULFXOWXUH DQG WKH HQYLURQPHQW ZLOO EH XQDYRLGDEO\GLI¿FXOWDQGSDLQIXO
Preface [YLL Participation in each Forum is limited to 50 water scholars and senior water PDQDJHUV7\SLFDOO\±FRXQWULHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGDURXQGWKHWDEOH3DUWLFLSDQWV are asked to read the papers in advance of the Forum and come prepared to engage in interactive discussions which are at the heart of each Forum. Forum WKHPHV DUH LGHQWL¿HG E\ D QLQH PHPEHU $GYLVRU\ &RPPLWWHH ZKLFK SURYLGHV programmatic advice and oversight. The editors of this volume, drawn from the membership of the Advisory Committee, were Dr. Helen Ingram, University of California, Irvine and Dr. Alberto Garrido from the Technical University of Madrid. It is the hope of the editors and the Advisory Committee that the OHVVRQVZKLFKHPHUJHIURPWKHVHSDSHUVZLOOPDNHDVLJQL¿FDQWFRQWULEXWLRQWR UHVROXWLRQRIVRPHRIRXUPRVWGLI¿FXOWJOREDOLVVXHV +HQU\9DX[-U Chair, Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy Series Editor

Part I

Introduction

1

Converging global food and water trade-offs Robert Sandford

The global fresh water supply picture is not rosy An understanding of the current state of our civilization can be derived from the condition of the planet’s fresh water resources. In developing countries – where the bulk of the population of the world lives – more than 90 percent of all sewage and 70 percent of industrial wastewater is dumped untreated into surface water. Even if we were able to keep it clean, however, there is not enough water globally for all the things humans need and want water to do for us. Water supply bubbles are bursting in China, the Middle East and India with potentially serious implications for the global economy and for political stability. Even the United States is depleting groundwater on an average of 25 percent faster than it is being replenished. Our thirst for water grows with our population, but the amount of fresh water DYDLODEOHRQ(DUWKLV¿[HG,IZHDVVXPH³EXVLQHVVDVXVXDO´E\DERXW SHUFHQWRIWKHSURMHFWHGJOREDOSRSXODWLRQRIELOOLRQLVH[SHFWHGWREHIDFLQJ water stress or scarcity. With increasing climate variability being predicted by global climate models, we are likely also to have more people without adequate water more of the time, even in water-rich regions.

The amount of water we have will limit the amount of food we can grow Abundant water is not only essential to the photosynthetic process by which plants manufacture the carbohydrates that are the foundation of our food supply, it is also an important structural element in our food products. There is a lot of water in the food we consume. It has been estimated that we eat 70 times more ZDWHUWKDQZHGULQN:RUOGZDWHUGHPDQGLVGLUHFWO\LQÀXHQFHGE\KRZPDQ\RI us there are and what we want to eat. ,QFUHDVLQJO\ WKH UHVSRQVH WR JOREDO ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ ZLOO QRW EH GH¿QHG E\ direct transfers of liquid water between regions and countries, but by how much water is traded among nations in the form of water embodied in food.

R. Sandford 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ WKHUH DUH QRZ VR PDQ\ RI XV DQG RXU GLHWDU\ H[SHFWDWLRQV have risen so dramatically in the past 50 years, that we are approaching the limits of the water available to grow all the food we want. We should not worry just about running out of oil. We may not make it to the projected global population RIELOOLRQE\7KHUHPD\QRWEHHQRXJKZDWHU

Cities are now competing with agriculture and nature for water Currently, global human population growth is the highest in places where there LVWKHOHDVWZDWHUDOWKRXJKUHFHQW¿QGLQJVVKRZWKDWPDQ\FRXQWULHVDUHH[SHULHQFLQJ PRUH UHGXFWLRQV RI ELUWK UDWHV WKDQ H[SHFWHG The Economist 2009). $ERXWSHUFHQWRIWKHVXUIDFHRIWKHVROLGHDUWKUHFHLYHVVROLWWOHSUHFLSLWDWLRQ WKDW QDWXUDO HFRV\VWHP IXQFWLRQ LV OLPLWHG E\ ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ 7KXV ZH ¿QG that globally a third of humanity is now competing directly with nature for water. More water resource development, especially in semi-arid and arid regions of the globe, will lead to greater damage to both freshwater and non-aquatic ecosystems, which will lead directly to the decline of our global life-support capacity and ultimately to diminishment of human well-being. That, however, is the direction in which we appear to be headed. ,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWWRPHHWWKHIRRGGHPDQGVWKDWDUHSURMHFWHGWRH[LVWLQWKH world in 2025, we will need to put an additional 2,000 km3 of water into irrigaWLRQ7KLVDPRXQWLVURXJKO\HTXLYDOHQWWRWLPHVWKHDYHUDJHÀRZRIWKH1LOH *LYHQFXUUHQWZDWHUXVHSDWWHUQVWKHSRSXODWLRQWKDWLVSURMHFWHGWRH[LVWRQWKH planet in 2050 will require 3,800 km3 of water per year, which is nearly all of the freshwater that can presently be withdrawn from the surface of the Earth. This would mean that the world would lose most of the important environmental services that aquatic ecosystems presently provide on our behalf. Clearly, WKDWLVMXVWQRWJRLQJWRKDSSHQ6RPHWKLQJZRXOGJLYH¿UVW±HLWKHUWKHHQYLURQment itself or, perhaps more likely, our social order. Both are already under stress. :H DUH DOUHDG\ EHJLQQLQJ WR REVHUYH WKDW UDSLGO\ H[SDQGLQJ XUEDQ FHQWHUV have begun to compete with agriculture for both land and water on a global basis. Agriculture has, in turn, begun to compete with nature for land and water. We are increasingly concerned that we cannot meet both agricultural and urban needs while at the same time providing enough water to ensure the perpetuation of natural ecosystem functions central to the maintenance of our planetary lifesupport system.

Humanity is converging upon the need globally to make XQFRPPRQO\GLI¿FXOWSXEOLFSROLF\WUDGHRIIV As a consequence of growing populations and increased competition for land DQGZDWHUKXPDQLW\LVFRQYHUJLQJXSRQWKHQHHGWRPDNHXQFRPPRQO\GLI¿FXOW public policy trade-offs. These are trade-offs that have never had to be made on a global scale before.

Converging global food and water trade-offs 5 We are already putting a great deal of faith globally in a stressed and demonstratively non-sustainable agriculture. If we provide to nature the water it needs to perpetuate our planetary life-support system, then much of that water will KDYHWRFRPHDWWKHH[SHQVHRIDJULFXOWXUHZKLFKPHDQVWKDWPDQ\SHRSOHZLOO have to starve to meet ecosystem protection goals. If, on the other hand, we provide agriculture all the water it needs to have any KRSHRIIHHGLQJWKHSRSXODWLRQVWKDWDUHSURMHFWHGWRH[LVWHYHQLQWKHQZH PXVWH[SHFWRQJRLQJGHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHELRGLYHUVLW\EDVHGHFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQ that has generated Earth’s conditions upon which our society depends both for its stability and sustainability. Our hope of preventing the convergence of these dangerous circumstances has resided in our faith in innovation, science and technology. But in the dry UHJLRQVRIWKHZRUOG VXFK DV WKH0LGGOH(DVW$IULFD6SDLQDQG 0H[LFRDQG in new regions made permanently drought-prone, such as Australia and parts of the American West, engineering and technology have only been successful in creating short-term stop-gap solutions that often lead to greater ultimate YXOQHUDELOLW\DVSRSXODWLRQVFRQWLQXHWRJURZDQGPDWHULDOH[SHFWDWLRQVULVH

Confronting nature’s need for water ,UULJDWLRQSURGXFWLYLW\URVHGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHUWKHSDVW\HDUVDVDUHVXOWRIWKH Green Revolution. But, even if we disregard the environmental impacts caused by that revolution, we are no nearer to achieving global food security than we ZHUH \HDUV DJR EHFDXVH HYHU\ WLPH ZH FRPH FORVH WR ¿OOLQJ WKH IRRG production gap, population growth and ecosystem decline associated with water diversions to human purposes set us back. Our natural and agricultural ecosystems are trying to tell us something. 1DWXUHKDVVXUYLYDOYDOXHWRSHRSOHDQGPXFKRIWKDWVXUYLYDOYDOXHLVGH¿QHG by the fact that nature is our only provider of water. In order to provide water DQGRWKHUFULWLFDOEHQH¿WVWRSHRSOHQDWXUHKRZHYHUQHHGVZDWHUWRR:HQHHG water to prime the pump – so to speak – and the hydrological cycle is a very large pump. It is clear that if we want it to continue to receive valuable HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV RQ D IUHH EDVLV QDWXUH PXVW EH UHJDUGHG LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI water resources management decision-making as a legitimate water customer in its own right. But in many places it isn’t.

Taking nature’s need for water seriously as a means for making more water available for people A recent study of the estimated value of 17 ecosystem services provided by 16 worldwide ecosystem types was estimated at an average of US$33 trillion a year, which is nearly twice the global gross national product that is currently estimated DWWULOOLRQSHU\HDU6DIULHO&KDSWHUWKLVYROXPH It is interesting to note that the highest value of ecosystem service provided E\ QDWXUH ZDV QXWULHQW F\FOLQJ LELG 7KH RYHUDOO SODQHWDU\ YDOXH RI QXWULHQW

6

R. Sandford

cycling was estimated at about $17 trillion a year, nearly half of the total value of all the services provided free to us by our planet’s functioning ecosystems. 1XWULHQWF\FOLQJLVODUJHO\DVHUYLFHSURYLGHGE\ZDWHU From this it becomes evident that, while all services are essential, waterregulating functions are more valuable than other regulating services. While one might not agree with the value attached to these services or even with dollar accounting for what nature does in service of making life on this planet possible, an important point is put into relief through this kind of audit. Despite their small area globally, aquatic ecosystems are found to be of H[WUDRUGLQDU\DFWXDODQGUHODWLYHYDOXH&RDVWDOHVWXDULHVZHUHGHHPHGWKHPRVW productive of all freshwater ecosystems followed by inland wetlands. More striking, perhaps, is the comparative value of global freshwater ecosystems to WHUUHVWULDOHFRV\VWHPVVHHWKHVHPLQDOZRUNRI&RVWDQ]D et al. 1997, and Safriel, Chapter 8 this volume). Current eco-hydrological research underscores much of what humans have known intuitively for generations. Healthy aquatic ecosystems contribute far more than we ever understood to the production of water through the hydrological cycle as well as to the self-purifying power of healthy wetlands, lakes, and rivers. Intact aquatic ecosystems function synergistically with neighboring WHUUHVWULDO FRPSOH[HV WR SURYLGH UHJXODWLQJ VHUYLFHV VXFK DV WKRVH WKDW FRQWURO rainwater capture, enhance the storage of water in ecosystems, and facilitate the JUDGXDOUHOHDVHRIWKHZDWHUWKDWSHUSHWXDWHVVWUHDPÀRZWKURXJKRXWWKH\HDU :KLOH DOO IUHVKZDWHU HFRV\VWHPV WRJHWKHU FRPSULVH SHUFHQW RI DOO QRQ PDULQHHFRV\VWHPVWKH\SURYLGHSHUFHQWRIWKHYDOXHRIDOORIWKHVHHFRV\VWHPV FRPELQHG 1DWXUDO HFRV\VWHP IXQFWLRQ LV DOVR WKH IRXQGDWLRQ RI WKH ecological diversity that makes agricultural food production for our growing populations possible. But natural systems are not the only ones capable of contributing to planetary life-support function. To a lesser but not unimportant H[WHQWKXPDQDOWHUHGV\VWHPVFDQGRWKLVWRR Researchers in the Middle East have demonstrated that managing natural and human-altered ecosystems in tandem can create more water for both people and nature. In Israel in 1993, scientists calculated that the potential water yield of that country’s natural Mediterranean scrubland – that is to say the volume of rain falling during a given year on a given surface minus the volume of water returned to the atmosphere from the same area in the same year – is about 1,590 km3 a year. ,Q OLWWOH PRUH WKDQ D GHFDGH VFLHQWLVWV H[SHULPHQWLQJ ZLWK GLYHUVH DUUD\V RI agricultural plant species were able to increase the potential water yield of this UHJLRQE\VRPHSHUFHQWWRNP3 a year, by transforming it into an optimally diverse cultivated ecosystem. This improvement was accomplished by HQKDQFLQJWKHZDWHUSURYLVLRQIXQFWLRQRIWKH³QDWXUDO´0HGLWHUUDQHDQVFUXEODQG ecosystem so as to reduce the amount of soil moisture that was evaporating. This demonstrates that human landscape transformations undertaken with the aim of enhancing the water regulation function of a given ecosystem can result in increased soil water content being available for both agriculture and nature.

Converging global food and water trade-offs 7 7KH JUHDW EUHDNWKURXJK KHUH LV WKDW PLOOHQQLXP GH¿QLWLRQV RI ³HFRV\VWHP´ include both cultivated and urban ecosystems. Agricultural and urban ecosystems suddenly become part of a global ecological whole. The new construct recognizes that actively managed ecosystems now constitute more than half of the ice-free Earth, and that 11 percent of these are cultivated. It recognizes that it is not just pristine ecosystems that provide PDUNHWDEOH JRRGV DQG JHQHUDWH SULFHOHVV VHUYLFHV VXFK DV ZDWHU SXUL¿FDWLRQ aquifer recharge, soil development and – until recently – relative climatic stability.

Beyond engineering: an eco-hydrological frontier It is important to pay attention to the fact that natural systems perform many functions, and when natural ecosystems are diminished or lost these functions must be reproduced or enhanced elsewhere if our planetary life-support system is to continue functioning in the manner in which we have come to rely. If ecohydrological research tells us anything, it is that that is clearly not happening. Historically, it has been a given that when humans impair the provision of goods and services by either natural or passively managed ecosystems, these PXVWEHUHSODFHGE\DUWL¿FLDOPHDQV:KDWZHKDYHGLVFRYHUHGKRZHYHULVWKDW DUWL¿FLDOWHFKQRORJ\UHSODFHPHQWVIRUQDWXUDOO\RUSDVVLYHO\PDQDJHGHFRV\VWHP IXQFWLRQLQYDULDEO\WXUQRXWWREHH[SHQVLYHDQGLQIHULRUWRJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV SURYLGHGE\³QDWXUDO´V\VWHPV7KLVLVDIDFWZHQHHGWRH[SORUHLIZHZDQWWR solve the global water availability problem. $OORYHUWKHZRUOGFRPSOH[QDWXUDOV\VWHPVDUHEHLQJVLPSOL¿HGLQRUGHUWR FRQFHQWUDWH VSHFL¿F EHQH¿WV LQ KXPDQ KDQGV 7KH FXPXODWLYH HIIHFWV RI RXU global engineering efforts on our planet’s life support function are becoming increasingly measurable. This should not be seen as a criticism of engineering. The point that evolving eco-hydrological perspectives put into relief is not that we should stop relying on engineering solutions. We can’t go back now. If anything, we need solid engineering solutions more than ever. But we do need to know more about how urban and agricultural ecosystems can contribute more to both water supply and quality. We need to improve our understanding not just of fundamental ecoK\GURORJLFDOIXQFWLRQEXWRIWKHH[SDQGHGVHUYLFHVWKDWRXUQDWXUDODJULFXOWXUDO and urban ecosystems might together be able to provide in the future and engineer toward the realization of that potential. But here’s the kicker. We then have to reserve enough water through our management mechanisms to make sure these ecosystems have the water they need to perform these functions under current circumstances and in the altered circumstances in which we may have to live as a consequence of higher mean global temperatures. We may not be able to do this if our population continues to mock our every technological advance and undermine our best efforts to achieve sustainability. :KDW ZH OHDUQ IURP WKHVH H[DPSOHV LV WKDW ZKLOH HQJLQHHULQJ DQG technological innovation will always be important, the area in which we may

8

R. Sandford

need to concentrate most in the management of our water resources is on sustainability of use. Our central focus should be on governance for it is in this broad and universal domain that our collective ineffectiveness is likely to SURGXFH WKH JUHDWHVW SRWHQWLDO IRU FRQÀLFW ZKLFK FDQ RQO\ RFFXU DW WKH FRVW RI achieving sustainability in the future.

Failures of governance $V PDQ\ ZDWHU SROLF\ VFKRODUV KDYH SRLQWHG RXW WKHUH DUH PDQ\ H[FLWLQJ QHZ LGHDV LQ WKH ¿HOG RI ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW EXW ZH DUH XQIRUWXQDWHO\ IDLOLQJ WR DFW upon them. This failure takes a number of forms. Shortcomings in contemporary water politics globally are marked by the IDLOXUHWRSURSHUO\FRQWH[WXDOL]HZDWHULVVXHVLQZD\VWKDWWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWORFDO history, culture and relationship to place. This is in part at least connected to an unwillingness to address deep-seated inequities in the way water is allocated and managed in many places in the world. 7KLV XQZLOOLQJQHVV WR DGGUHVV HTXLW\ LQMXVWLFHV PDNHV LW GLI¿FXOW WR IUDPH issues in ways that will attract and sustain public attention, which in turn makes LWGLI¿FXOWWRUHFUXLWDQGLQVSLUHOHDGHUVFDSDEOHRIWKHVXVWDLQHGHIIRUWUHTXLUHG to bring about long-term water policy reform. Without forceful leadership, it is impossible to create, foster and cultivate the level of political will over the duration of time required to ensure proper and lasting implementation of improved policy, leading to changed practices and different results. What is needed is a new global water ethic. That ethic could have its origins LQ WKH IXQGDPHQWDO SULQFLSOHV WKDW GH¿QH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ HFRV\VWHPV and water supply.

Solutions exist: we need to know why we don’t implement them $V D VRFLHW\ ZH DUH SDLQWLQJ RXUVHOYHV LQWR D GLI¿FXOW FRUQHU 7KHUH DUH WRR many of us and our diverse business and religious traditions and a fear of being overwhelmed by culturally different others will not permit us to reduce our numbers. Our agriculture and resource needs have become so substantial that they are shutting down other life-support processes upon which the entire global system depends for stability and sustainability. We can see clearly what is happening but we can’t do anything in part EHFDXVHQRRQHZDQWVWREHWKH¿UVWWRPDNHFRPSURPLVHVRUVDFUL¿FHVIRUIHDU WKDW WKRVH ZKR ZRQ¶W PDNH WKRVH VDPH VDFUL¿FHV ZLOO WULXPSK RYHU WKHP HFRnomically or politically. If there was ever an area of social science research that needs urgent attention it is the form of environmental-cum-economic brinksmanship we practice that ignores the obvious impacts of rapid population growth, encourages agricultural practices globally that we know are non-sustainable, acknowledges that

Converging global food and water trade-offs 9 biodiversity losses are compromising the state of our global life-support systems and yet takes only token steps toward preventing such loss; and knowingly starves nature of the water it needs to provide services to people that we cannot afford or do not know how to supply for ourselves. 7KH VRFLDO VFLHQFH UHVHDUFK ZH QHHG WR XQGHUWDNH PXVW H[SORUH HOHPHQWV RI our nature that would allow us to make apparently rational choices that support the constant pushing of every environmental constraint and limit until the system EUHDNVGRZQDQGKDVWREHUHSODFHGE\FRVWO\EXWRIWHQXOWLPDWHO\LQIHULRUDUWL¿cial solutions that we in turn push to the limits of failure through relentless population and economic growth. As one participant commented in the Rosenberg Forum in Zaragoza whose papers are published in this volume, we focus too much on what should be done and not enough on why it isn’t done. As a civilization, it may be a good time to look in the mirror. We should not just look at ourselves but at what is coming up fast behind us in the form of converging problems that together may be more GLI¿FXOW WR DGGUHVV WKDQ ZH FDQ LPDJLQH RU DIIRUG *OREDO HFRQRPLF DQDO\VLV indicates that the greatest new scarcity to appear in our time relates to limitations on the environment’s capacity to absorb and neutralize the unprecedented waste VWUHDPVKXPDQLW\ORRVHVXSRQLWVHH6LPSVRQ et al. 1DWXUHLVQRWOLNHO\ to turn against us, but what we are turning nature into might.

Approach and contents of this volume 7KLVYROXPHLVGLYLGHGLQWR¿YHVXEVWDQWLYHVHFWLRQVIROORZLQJWKLVLQWURGXFWLRQ Each section considers key questions about water for food in a changing world. Different chapter authors take different approaches; concentrate on different levels, IURPWKHJOREDOWRWKHORFDOEULQJH[SHULHQFHDQGGDWDIURPGLIIHUHQWUHJLRQVDQG draw conclusions that are sometimes compatible and contending. The concluding chapter summarizes the lessons of each chapter and section and draws some overall conclusions. The sections to come ask the following questions: What innovations can be found in the agricultural sector to face the sustainability challenge? Four chapters address the world’s food production system and current levels of water productivity in agriculture. The overall question of the adequacy of the present system must include consideration of natural variations in water supplies, including prolonged drought, variations in economic and governance capacities, including stark differences between continents like Europe and Africa, as well as variations in regulatory frameworks and public preferences. &DQJOREDOWUDQVIHUVDQGWUDGHIXO¿OOIRRGUHTXLUHPHQWVZLWKRXWVDFUL¿FLQJ the environment? This section takes up several ideas in good currency among water scholars, including green water, blue water and virtual water. Authors of the two chapters in this section consider whether more water can be squeezed RXWRIJUDVVODQGVDQGRWKHUXQFXOWLYDWHGDUHDV7KHVHFWLRQH[SORUHVSRVVLELOLWLHV of trade in virtual water, that is shipping agricultural goods with high water demand from countries with ample supplies to water-poor countries to substitute for food that otherwise would strain water supplies if grown at home.

10 R. Sandford :K\LVHQVXULQJVXI¿FLHQWZDWHUIRUWKHHQYLURQPHQWFUXFLDO" The section DOVR H[DPLQHV WKH WKHPH LQWURGXFHG HDUOLHU RI SURYLGLQJ FULWLFDO HFRV\VWHP services. It also looks at global water stress and reviews some important H[SHULPHQWVLQHFRORJLFDOUHVWRUDWLRQDQGVXVWDLQDEOHZDWHUPDQDJHPHQW How can water governance be revitalized? Four chapters in this section present a range of concerns about water governance related to the appropriate UROH RI JOREDO ¿QDQFH LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG ¿UVW ZRUOG QDWLRQV LQ UHJDUG WR ZDWHU GHFLVLRQV EHLQJ PDGH LQ HPHUJLQJ QDWLRQV OLNH %UD]LO DQG 0H[LFR DQG WKH European Union. The section considers the problems of implementing water UHIRUPVUDLVHGHDUOLHULQWKLVFKDSWHUDVZHOODVWKHVRPHWLPHVFRQÀLFWLQJVLJQDOV presented by agricultural and environmental laws at national and regional levels. What are the overall lessons and conclusions? 7KH ¿QDO FKDSWHU RI WKH book provides a different and more detailed look at the overall problem of VXVWDLQDEO\ IHHGLQJ WKH H[SDQGLQJ JOREDO SRSXODWLRQ ,W FULWLFDOO\ VXPPDUL]HV and reviews the chapters in different sections, drawing contrasts, and parallels, and pointing out disagreements where they occur. Finally, the chapter presents lessons drawn not just from the chapters in this book, but also from the entire GLVFXVVLRQDWWKH6L[WK%LHQQLDO5RVHQEHUJ,QWHUQDWLRQDO:DWHU)RUXP:HFRQFOXGH ZLWK D VXPPDU\ RI WKH LGHDV SUHVHQWHG E\ UHQRZQHG ZDWHU H[SHUW 3HWHU Gleick.

References Costanza, R., d’Arge, R., de Groot, R.S., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, .1DHHP62¶1HLOO593DUXHOR-5DVNLQ5*6XWWRQ3DQGYDQGHQ%HOW 0 7KH YDOXH RI WKH ZRUOG¶V HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV DQG QDWXUDO FDSLWDO Nature, 387: 253–260. Simpson, D.R., Tornan, M.A., and Ayres, R.U. HGV Scarcity and Growth Revisited: Natural Resources and the Environment in the New Millennium, Washington, '&5))3UHVV5HVRXUFHVIRUWKH)XWXUH The Economist )HUWLOLW\DQGOLYLQJVWDQGDUGV*RIRUWKDQGPXOWLSO\DORWOHVV October.

Part II

Innovations in the agricultural response to the sustainability challenge

2

Optimizing water productivity in food production Elías Fereres

Introduction and background: Increasing the productivity of food production systems In the face of stable or even diminishing water supplies in some areas, how can agricultural systems produce more food? Exploring answers to this question forms the basis of this chapter. Most human food is derived from primary production processes that take place in agricultural ecosystems. Plant production is directly associated with water consumption through the transport of water by plants from the soil to the atmosphere, a process called transpiration. Thus, for each unit of biomass production, there is always some water that evaporates into WKH DWPRVSKHUH :H GH¿QH KHUH ZDWHU SURGXFWLYLW\ :3 DV WKH UDWLR RI FURS SURGXFWLRQ WR ZDWHU FRQVXPSWLRQ TXDQWL¿HG LQ SK\VLFDO WHUPV DV NJP3, or as P3LQHFRQRPLFWHUPV %HIRUHHQJDJLQJLQWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIKRZWRLPSURYH :3LQIRRGSURGXFWLRQLWVHHPVLQVWUXFWLYHWR¿UVWH[DPLQHWKHFXUUHQWVWDWHDQG productivity levels of agricultural systems. The “road map” that leads to high productivity in agricultural systems has been well known for several decades now. Genetically improved seeds planted at the correct time produce crop canopies which, supplied with abundant water and nutrients and protected from pests, diseases, and weeds with agrochemicals and other means, accumulate biomass at high rates and produce high economic yields. The combination of agronomy and plant breeding to improve the productivity of agricultural systems has led to the systematic increase of global crop production and productivity since the 1960s. One result of such an increase is that the WP of wheat in Australia has doubled over the last 50 years, due only to WKH UDLVH LQ ZKHDW \LHOGV 5$ 5LFKDUGV SHUV FRP 1HYHUWKHOHVV FDUHIXO examination of the global trends in the average yields of the main crops, detects a clear slowdown in the productivity increase since the end of last century. Figure 2.1 depicts the average wheat yields for two countries, Australia and Egypt, and the world average, since 1965. There was an increase in yield with time in all cases, as shown by the linear regressions drawn. The average rate of \LHOG LQFUHDVH XQWLO WKH HQG RI ODVW FHQWXU\ ZDV NJKD\U IRU WKH ZRUOG DQG PXFKKLJKHUIRU(J\SWZKHUHDOOZKHDWLVLUULJDWHG
14 E. Fereres because there wheat is produced under rain-fed conditions in areas of very limited rainfall. Average yields between 1999 and 2007 are also plotted in Figure 2.1 and show, in all three cases, a lack of increase over the last ten years. ,WDSSHDUVWKDWLQFUHDVHVLQZKHDWSURGXFWLYLW\DUHEHFRPLQJPRUHGLI¿FXOWWR achieve, with the consequent implications for world food production. The recent sharp increase in the price of cereals showed that the world is at risk of having a IRRG FULVLV DV D IHZ HJ &DVVPDQ ZDUQHG VHYHUDO \HDUV DJR ZLWKRXW arising any reaction from governments, international organizations, or from a VRFLHW\PRUHDIÀXHQWWKDQHYHUEHIRUHDQGIDLUO\LJQRUDQWRIWKHPDMRUDJULFXOWXUDODQG UXUDOLVVXHV ,Q D SDSHU SUHSDUHG IRU WKH 5RVHQEHUJ )RUXP LQ , wrote, in relation to the state of agricultural productivity: “In conclusion, there VHHPVWREHVLJQL¿FDQWXQFHUWDLQW\LQPHHWLQJIXWXUHZRUOGIRRGGHPDQGIRUWKH next two decades, and there is even more uncertainty in achieving the goal of eradicating or reducing the hunger that presently affects more than 800 million people world wide.” Prices have come down at the time of writing, but there are QR REMHFWLYH UHDVRQV WR EHOLHYH WKDW WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ PHHWLQJ IXWXUH IRRG demand has decreased. The slowdown in yield increase in Figure 2.1 may be attributed to many IDFWRUV WKH \LHOG JDS WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH PD[LPXP SRWHQWLDO DQG WKH DYHUDJH \LHOGV LV PXFK PRUH GLI¿FXOW WR FORVH ZKHQ DFWXDO \LHOGV DSSURDFK potential values. This is the case of rice in many parts of Asia, where actual yields are reaching 80 percent of potential. In the other main crops, progress was

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Optimizing water productivity for food 15 HDV\ DW ¿UVW EXW DV WLPH ZHQW RQ LW ZDV VORZHG GRZQ DV PRUH PDUJLQDO VRLOV went into production under less favorable climatic conditions. Other factors include: the myopia of Europe and the United States who shifted their subsidy programs away from productivity enhancement, because of some overproduction concerns that were, at best, a short-term problem. Another factor is the reduction LQWKHDUHDRIKLJKTXDOLW\VRLOVFURSSHGWRFHUHDOVZKLFKDUHQRUPDOO\WKH¿UVW HJ YDOOH\ VRLOV WR EH ORVW WR XUEDQL]DWLRQ &DVVPDQ ,Q PDQ\ ZRUOG areas, there is a lack of knowledge about the maintenance of soil fertility in the long run and, in general, ignorance about how to make agriculture more sustainable. Finally, it should be noted that innovation in the agricultural sector slowed down because most, if not all, governments reduced their investments in agricultural research and extension over the last 20–30 years in real terms. There were several reasons for that. The most important reason was the expectation that plant biotechnologies would deliver huge increases in yield potential and in abiotic stress tolerance that, as we know now, have yet to materialize, despite the success in the control of weeds in soybeans and of some important pests in corn WKURXJKELRWHFKQRORJ\,6$$$ 7KHDSDWK\H[KLELWHGE\WKHLQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPPXQLW\LQSUHSDULQJIRUWKHXSFRPLQJFKDOOHQJHRISURGXFLQJVXI¿FLHQWIRRG ZDV DOVR EDVHG RQ D QXPEHU RI DQDO\VHV HJ ,)35, WKDW VXJJHVWHG WKDW world agriculture was perfectly capable of meeting cereal demands, and that predicted stability or even a declining trend in cereal prices until the year 2020. What can be done to increase crop productivity? We know that we must make our agricultural systems more productive and more sustainable. Two concepts are NH\WRPHHWLQJWKLVFKDOOHQJHRQHLVHI¿FLHQF\DQGWKHRWKHULVPDLQWHQDQFH,Q WHUPVRIHI¿FLHQF\ZHPXVWLQFUHDVHWKHSUHFLVLRQZLWKZKLFKZHPDQDJHLQSXWV such as fertilizers, water, energy, and agrochemicals to maximize output and to minimize waste and pollution. Additionally, agricultural ecosystems need maintenance work that has been neglected in recent years. For instance, we must mainWDLQWKHUHVLVWDQFHRIRXUEHVWYDULHWLHVWRQHZUDFHVRIWKHPDMRUGLVHDVHVE\SODQW breeding. Also, we must maintain the fertility of our soils and the water balance of agroecosystems, avoiding overexploitation and other unsustainable practices. &DQDOOWKLVEHGRQH"7KHDQVZHUWRWKDWTXHVWLRQLVWKDWLWFDQEHGRQHE\EXLOGing on past successes that combined agronomy and breeding to meet the new challenges, and by developing the new technologies that are needed to manage DJULFXOWXUDOV\VWHPVPRUHHI¿FLHQWO\ZKLOHLPSURYLQJWKHLUVXVWDLQDELOLW\ &URS SODQWV UHTXLUH D FRQWLQXRXV VXSSO\ RI ZDWHU WR UHSODFH WKH ZDWHU HYDSRUDWHGWUDQVSLUHG IURPWKHLUDHULDORUJDQV:DWHULVORVWIURPYHJHWDWLRQDW very high rates because the water vapor pressure gradient between the interior of DOHDIDQGWKHDWPRVSKHUHLVVXFKWKDWIRUHYHU\PROHFXOHRI&22 taken up in the photosynthesis process, between 50 to 100 molecules of H2O are lost. Thus, the use of large amounts of water by crops is dictated by the evaporative demand of the environment and is tightly associated with biomass production and yield. The truth is that the production of food requires large volumes of water, as indicated by the well-known fact that almost 70 percent of all water diverted by humans worldwide is used in the irrigation of croplands. The current concerns about water

16 E. Fereres scarcity and, at the same time, about the food crisis, can only emphasize the need WR LPSURYH WKH HI¿FLHQF\ RI ZDWHU XVH LQ DJULFXOWXUDO V\VWHPV 2QH PHDVXUH RI HI¿FLHQF\ LV WKH ZDWHU SURGXFWLYLW\ ZKLFK FDQ EH GH¿QHG DV \LHOG SHU XQLW RI water consumed. It is important to emphasize that maximizing WP is not among WKH H[SOLFLW REMHFWLYHV RI IDUPHUV HYHQ LQ ZDWHUVFDUFH UHJLRQV :KHQ ZDWHU LV limited, farmers aim at maximizing net returns and at minimizing the risks associated with the limited supply. It should be emphasized that farmers do not include WKHHQKDQFHPHQWRI:3DPRQJWKHLUPDQDJHPHQWREMHFWLYHVZKHQWKH\DUHIDFHG with making decisions. The chosen options will vary in their WP, but if they UHVXOWLQLQFUHDVH\LHOGDQGRUUHGXFHGFRQVXPSWLYHXVHWKH\ZLOOLQFUHDVH:3 From other sectors and society at large, however, there is interest in achieving high WP, but that has to be done considering the hydrologic implications of the adopted measures at different scales, from the farm up to the district and basin. A FRPSURPLVHDQGDUHOHYDQWJRDOZRXOGEHWRRSWLPL]H:3XQGHUWKHVSHFL¿FFRQditions, while acknowledging the statement that Viets made many years ago ³±:8(GRHVQRW¿OOEHOOLHV±´ZKLFKLVHTXDOO\YDOLGWRGD\7KLVFKDSWHUH[DPines how to optimize WP in food production by analyzing the processes involved in crop water use, and the opportunities to conserve water while increasing the production of food needed to meet current and future demands.

Water productivity in crop production ,WKDVEHHQNQRZQIRUPRUHWKDQDFHQWXU\QRZWKDWELRPDVVSURGXFWLRQ% LV LQH[WULFDEO\ OLQNHG WR WUDQVSLUDWLRQ 7 )LIW\ \HDUV KDYH SDVVHG VLQFH 'H:LW published his seminal paper quantifying the relations between transpiration and FURS\LHOGV'H:LW DQG\HDUVVLQFHWKHSXEOLFDWLRQRIWKHUHYLHZE\ 7DQQHU DQG 6LQFODLU WKDW FRYHUHG WKH XQGHUO\LQJ SK\VLRORJ\ RI WKH 7% UHODWLRQVKLSV 7KH VXEMHFW KDV EHHQ UHYLHZHG DJDLQ UHFHQWO\ E\ 6WHGXWR et al. ZKR DVVHVVHG WKH 7% UHODWLRQVKLSV JRLQJ IURP WKH OHDI WR WKH FDQRS\ OHYHODQGXVLQJVHYHUDOPHWKRGRORJLHVGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWWKH7%UHODWLRQVKLSV DUHTXLWHFRQVHUYDWLYHDQGGLI¿FXOWWRDOWHURQFHWKH\DUHFRUUHFWHGIRUWKHHYDSRUDWLYHGHPDQGRIWKHHQYLURQPHQWZKHUHWKHFURSVDUHJURZQDQGIRUWKH&22 concentration of the air. Steduto et al. VKRZHGWKDWWKH%7UDWLRLVYHU\ VLPLODUIRUVHYHUDO&PDMRUFURSVGLIIHULQJRQO\IURPWKDWRIJUDLQVRUJKXPD & FURS WKDW KDV D GLIIHUHQW SKRWRV\QWKHWLF SDWKZD\ 7KXV WKH LQLWLDO EDVLF FRQFHSWRIZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\WKH%7UDWLRWHUPHGKHUH:3EDOVRFDOOHGWUDQVSLUDWLRQHI¿FLHQF\7( LQWKHOLWHUDWXUHHJ7DQQHUDQG6LQFODLU VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ FRQVWDQW IRU D JLYHQ FURS RQFH FRUUHFWHG IRU WKH HQYLURQPHQW DQG GRHV QRW VHHP WR EH YHU\ DPHQDEOH WR PDQLSXODWLRQ RU LPSURYHPHQWDWOHDVWLQWKHVKRUWWRPHGLXPWHUP6WHGXWR et al. Although the near constancy of WPb imposes limitations on the improvement RI:3FURS\LHOGVDUHRQO\SDUWRIWKHFURS%WKXVWKH:3RILQWHUHVWLQIRRG SURGXFWLRQLVWKH<7UDWLRRU:3\+HUHWKHUHPD\EHPRUHRSWLRQVWRLPSURYH WKH :3 PRVWO\ UHODWHG WR PDQLSXODWLQJ WKH IUDFWLRQ RI % WKDW LV DOORFDWHG WR \LHOGFDOOHGWKHKDUYHVWLQGH[+,

Optimizing water productivity for food 17 A conceptual model of water-limited crop production 3DVVLRXUD SURSRVHG D IUDPHZRUN WR DQDO\]H WKH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ \LHOG and water consumed in agricultural systems. It is based on the following equation: Y(kg/ha) = T (mm) × TE (kg/ha/mm) × HI (kg/kg)

:KHUH WKH ZDWHUOLPLWHG \LHOG < LV HTXDO WR WKH SURGXFW RI WKH GHSWK RI ZDWHU WUDQVSLUHG 7 WLPHV WKH WUDQVSLUDWLRQ HI¿FLHQF\ 7( DQG WLPHV WKH KDUYHVWLQGH[+, $QLQWHUYHQWLRQWKDWLQFUHDVHVDQ\RIWKHVHWKUHHIDFWRUVOHDGV to an increase in water-limited yield. Although there are reasons to believe that T and TE are not always independent of each other, Equation 2.1 is an excellent framework to analyze conceptually the effects of various biological, environmental, or management factors on the relations between water use and yield, as discussed below. Scaling-up water productivity from plant to farm When the water use process is scaled up from plant T to the water losses from an DJULFXOWXUDO¿HOGWKHSHUWLQHQWVFDOHRIIDUPPDQDJHPHQWWKHQWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHV IRULPSURYLQJ:3H[SDQGVLJQL¿FDQWO\+VLDR et al. KDYHVKRZQLQDV\VWHPDWLF IDVKLRQ KRZ DQ HI¿FLHQF\ FKDLQ IUDPHZRUN PD\ EH XVHG WR LGHQWLI\ targets for the systematic improvement of WP in agricultural systems. Starting from a reservoir in irrigated systems, or from rainfall in dryland systems, a QXPEHURIHI¿FLHQF\VWHSVUDWLRV ZHUHGH¿QHGDQGWKHLUSURGXFWVKRZQWREH WKHRYHUDOOHI¿FLHQF\RU:3RIWKHV\VWHP+VLDR et al. DVLQGLFDWHGLQWKH following equation: Wfg Wfd Wrz Wet Wtr mas mbm myld myld r r r r r r r Eall Wvo Wfg Wfd Wrz Wet Wtr mas mbm Wvo

)ROORZLQJWKHQRPHQFODWXUHRI(TXDWLRQWKHRYHUDOOHI¿FLHQF\ZRXOGEH WKH\LHOGPDVVP\OG GLYLGHGE\WKHZDWHUYROXPHGLYHUWHGRXWRIWKHUHVHUYRLU Wvo. The different steps in the chain include the ratio between the water delivHUHGDWD¿HOG:IG DQGWKHZDWHUGHOLYHUHGDWWKHIDUPJDWHIRUWKDWSDUWLFXODU ¿HOG :IJ 7KH FKDLQ LV EURNHQ GRZQ LQWR WKH ZDWHU VWRUHG LQ WKH URRW ]RQH FRQVXPHGLQHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQHW DQGLQWUDQVSLUDWLRQWU DVVKRZQLQ(TXDWLRQ7KHPDVVRIFDUERQDVVLPLODWHGLQWKHSKRWRV\QWKHVLVDV LVWKHQFRQYHUWHG LQWR ELRPDVV EP DQG WKHQ LQWR \LHOG ,W ZDV DOVR VKRZQ +VLDR et al. WKDWDQLPSURYHPHQWLQWURGXFHGLQDQ\RIWKHVWHSVOHDGVWRLPSURYLQJWKH overall WP; and, because the individual ratios are always less than one, the RYHUDOOHI¿FLHQF\REWDLQHGE\PXOWLSO\LQJWKHUDWLRVLVRIWHQTXLWHORZ7KHPRVW striking fact of the analysis of Hsiao et al. LVWKHLUFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ SRRUDQGJRRGVLWXDWLRQVREWDLQHGE\VHOHFWLQJHI¿FLHQF\YDOXHVIRUWKHGLIIHUHQW

18 E. Fereres steps, generally considered typical of good and poor situations. Although they did not use extreme values, the use of typical values for good and poor situations \LHOGHGDQRYHUDOOHI¿FLHQF\IRUWKHJRRGVLWXDWLRQWKDWZDVWLPHVKLJKHUWKDQ WKDWRIWKHSRRUVLWXDWLRQ+VLDR et al. 7DEOH 7KLVZDVWKHUHVXOWRIWKH PXOWLSOLFDWLYHQDWXUHRIWKHFKDLQRIHI¿FLHQFLHVDQGKLJKOLJKWVWKHIDFWWKDWWKHUH must be substantial room for improvement in most situations. Water productivity is often limited by factors other than water Most assessments made of the yield gap in water-limited areas, that is on the nature of the differences between actual and potential yields, have pointed at factors other than water as the causes for the yield gap, regardless of the conVXPSWLYHXVHRIZDWHU)UHQFKDQG6FKXO] VXUYH\HGDQXPEHURIIDUPVLQ South Australia and came up with a relation between wheat yield and rainfall which is very similar to the one published more than 20 years later by Sadras DQG $QJXV DQG VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH D ,Q ERWK FDVHV DOO \LHOG REVHUYDtions fell below an envelope line which depicts the attainable yield for the amount of water used. The yield data of Figure 2.2a was obtained from experiments published in many world regions and is plotted against the estimated conVXPSWLYH XVH (7 7KH GDWD VKRZV WKDW IRU DQ\ OHYHO RI (7 < FDQ YDU\ IURP almost nil to the highest value approaching the envelope line that has a slope LQGLFDWLYH RI D PD[LPXP :3 RI DERXW NJKDPP )RU DOO WKH GDWD SRLQWV placed below the envelope line, it is evident that factors other than ET limited \LHOG )UHQFK DQG 6FKXO] LGHQWL¿HG LQ WKHLU DQDO\VLV FDVHV ZKHUH ODWH planting date, poor nutrition, weeds, diseases, and pests were some of the probDEOHFDXVHVRIWKHORZ\LHOGVRIGLIIHUHQWIDUPHUV¶¿HOGV'DWDVLPLODUWRWKDWRI WKHZKHDWGLVFXVVHGDERYHZDVREWDLQHGUHFHQWO\E\*RQ]DOH]'XJRDQG0DWHRV LQLUULJDWHGFRWWRQDQGVXJDUEHHWV7KHLUVXJDUEHHWGDWDREWDLQHGZLWKLQ the same geographical area of Southern Spain is reproduced in Figure 2.2b, where the variation in Y for a given ET level is of the order of 100 percent. The \LHOGV ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP IDUPHUV¶ ¿HOGV DQG WKH (7 ZDV HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ UHPRWHVHQVLQJ PHWKRGV *RQ]DOH]'XJR DQG 0DWHRV 0RUH SORWV \LHOGing results similar to those of Figure 2.2 have been obtained in several other crops and areas, and they all lead to the same conclusion: getting crop management right is perhaps the most important avenue for the improvement of WP. Unfortunately, the achievement of optimal management in crop production is not DQHDV\WDVNDQGLVDVXEMHFWWKDWKDVEHHQRYHUORRNHGE\DJULFXOWXUDOUHVHDUFK and extension in recent years.

Enhancing WP: Quantum leaps or incremental improvements? 0RGL¿FDWLRQ RI :3 PD\ EH EURXJKW DERXW E\ FKDQJHV LQ DQ\ RU DOO RI WKH IROORZLQJ D FKDQJLQJ FURS VSHFLHV RU FXOWLYDUV E FKDQJLQJ WKH SK\VLFDO HQYLURQPHQW DQG F FKDQJLQJ WKH PDQDJHPHQW 7KH JRDO ZRXOG EH WR HLWKHU

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20 E. Fereres LQFUHDVH WKH QXPHUDWRU < RU GHFUHDVH WKH GHQRPLQDWRU 7 RI WKH :3 UDWLR +RZHYHU QRWH WKDW GHFUHDVLQJ 7 PD\ EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D GHFUHDVH LQ % DQG therefore in Y, possibly defeating the purpose of maximizing net returns to the farmer. Therefore, while optimizing WP, the focus must be maintained on how to enhance water limited yields using the concepts outlined in Equation 2.1, and on how to reduce T without incurring a yield loss that would decrease the economic viability or the sustainability of the agricultural system in question. An obvious observation is that in most areas where yields are already high, the opportunity to increase WP is low, while in low yield areas the opposite is true and quantum leaps in WP may be possible if all enabling conditions are right. %LRORJLFDOPRGL¿FDWLRQVWRHQKDQFH:3 ,WKDVDOUHDG\EHHQSRLQWHGRXWWKDWWKHEDVLF:3ELVFRQVHUYDWLYHDQGGLI¿FXOWWR change. The success that genetic engineering and plant biotechnology have had in generating new cultivars with resistance to some pests and to herbicides has provided expectations that similar breakthroughs could be possible on the resistance of crops to water stress, in particular for the improvement of WP. The proponents of this option, commonly use the more vague term “drought resistance” to refer to improving production when water is in short supply. It is not easy to obtain more precision when asked what component of WP they may be targeting to enhance WP, because until now, most of the advances so far are IRFXVHG RQ SODQW VXUYLYDO XQGHU H[WUHPH ZDWHU GH¿FLWV %OXP 7KH question should be simple: Would the improved GM crop increase Y or decrease T? Evidently, any Y improvements would automatically increase WP, but Y is not controlled by one or a few genes and thus it is not easy to manipulate following the same approaches used for introducing resistance to biotic stress. As DOUHDG\VDLGLWZRXOGEHPXFKPRUHGLI¿FXOWWRUHGXFH7SHUXQLW%6XEVWDQWLDO research investments on the molecular biology of drought resistance have taken SODFH LQ WKH ODVW GHFDGH -RKQ 3DVVLRXUD IURP $XVWUDOLD SHUV FRP KDV FROlected references to more than 900 patents or products in which claims along these lines are made, although none have been incorporated yet into commercial FXOWLYDUV $W D -XQH FRQIHUHQFH 5$ 5LFKDUGV D JHQHWLFLVW DQG EUHHGHU IURP&6,52$XVWUDOLDZKRKDVEHHQEUHHGLQJFURSSODQWVIRUGU\HQYLURQPHQWV for some decades now, indicated that of the many papers published on the VXEMHFW LQ KLV RSLQLRQ RQO\ WKUHH SDSHUV FRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG SURPLVLQJ ± DOO WKUHHLQWKHDUHDRILPSURYLQJUHVLVWDQFHWRVRLOERUQHGLVHDVHVWKDWZRXOGOHDG WRKHDOWKLHUURRWV\VWHPVWKXVFDSWXULQJPRUHZDWHUIRU7 $QHDUOLHUDQDO\VLV by Sinclair et al. UHDFKHG VLPLODU FRQFOXVLRQV DQG KLJKOLJKWHG WKH GLI¿FXOWLHV LQKHUHQW WR WKH JHQHWLF*0 RSWLRQV IRU LPSURYHPHQW RI :3 Although progress in this area will be slow, efforts to provide needed guidance WRFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKDUHEHLQJPDGH6DOHNGHKet al. Plant breeding using modern tools at the molecular level produced by the advances in biotechnology will continue to improve yields by improving the FURSUHVSRQVHWRKRVWLOHHQYLURQPHQWVSHVWVDQGGLVHDVHVVRLODFLGLW\WR[LFLW\

Optimizing water productivity for food 21 but in incremental steps of moderate rate, which will have a positive impact on
22 E. Fereres watermelon. Given the usual prices fetched by these off-season vegetables, WP values of €5–10 per cubic meter are easily achieved in that area. Such values FRQWUDVWZLWK:3YDOXHVRI¼±SHUFXELFPHWHUIRUWKHPDMRULUULJDWHG¿HOG crops, and of around €1 per cubic meter for citrus in the same region. The extremely high WP monetary values obtained with off-season vegetables grown in plastic greenhouses in these temperate regions are among the highest observed in crop production. It is important to note, however, that the high investment levels required for protected cultivation preclude its use as a water-conserving technique outside those marketing conditions that make greenhouse production economically viable. 0DQDJHPHQWRSWLRQVIRUHQKDQFLQJ:3 0DQLSXODWLRQ RI DOO IDFWRUV WKDW LQÀXHQFH FURS SHUIRUPDQFH LV WKH DYHQXH WKDW offers the most promise for improving crop productivity in dryland and irrigated V\VWHPV,WLVH[WUHPHO\GLI¿FXOWWRLPSURYHWKHSURGXFWLYLW\RIGU\ODQGV\VWHPV DVVKRZQE\WKHZKHDW\LHOGWUHQGVRI$XVWUDOLD)LJXUH ZKHUHHYHQWKRXJK technology is at the cutting edge, periodic droughts have had a severe impact on WKH DYHUDJH \LHOG RI PDQ\ \HDUV DORQJ WKH WUHQG %HFDXVH RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ VHDVRQDOUDLQIDOOWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHOHYHORIZDWHUVXSSO\LVDPDMRUOLPLWDtion in the efforts to optimize crop management in dryland systems. ImprovePHQWV LQ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI VHDVRQDO IRUHFDVWV FRXOG EULQJ DERXW VLJQL¿FDQW FKDQJHVLQIDUPHUV¶LQFRPHE\DGMXVWLQJLQSXWOHYHOVWRWKHDQWLFLSDWHGUDLQIDOO DVVKRZQUHFHQWO\IRU:HVWHUQ$XVWUDOLD0RHOOHU et al. ,WLVLPSHUDWLYH WKDWVLJQL¿FDQWDGYDQFHPHQWVLQVHDVRQDOZHDWKHUSUHGLFWLRQVRFFXULQRUGHUWR improve the WP of rain-fed systems around the world. The opportunities for maximizing WP in dryland systems are primarily based on increasing one or PRUH RI WKH WKUHH FRPSRQHQWV RI (TXDWLRQ QDPHO\ 7 7( DQG +, &URS management improvements that provide better crop health, for example, aid in enhancing the capture of soil water and thus lead to higher T. TE may be manipulated some by earlier planting dates and cultivar maturity date. Maintenance of +, XQGHU ZDWHU GH¿FLWV LV GLUHFWO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH DELOLW\ WR DYRLG VHYHUH VWUHVVDWWKHÀRZHULQJDQGSRVWÀRZHULQJVWDJHV7KLVPD\EHDFKLHYHGE\DOORFDWLQJVXI¿FLHQWVWRUHGVRLOZDWHUIRUWKHFRPSOHWLRQRIERWKVWDJHV7KHPDQ\ management options that dryland farmers have include cultivar selection in relation to season length, optimizing planting date and density, appropriate fertility practices, use of break crops and rotations, use of fallow practices, and of conservation agriculture. Most of these opportunities have been described in Gimenez et al. ZKHUHWKHSRWHQWLDOIRULPSURYLQJ:3LQUDLQIHGV\VWHPV KDV EHHQ FOHDUO\ LGHQWL¿HG 5HFHQW GHYHORSPHQWV LQ FRQVHUYDWLRQ DJULFXOWXUDO practices only emphasized the potential that exists for improving WP in dryland DJULFXOWXUH2UWL] et al. %HFDXVHUDLQIHGDJULFXOWXUHFRQWULEXWHVDERXW percent of food production, improving its WP is of paramount importance in water-short regions. The next section focuses on improving the WP of irrigated systems in the face of increasing water shortages.

Optimizing water productivity for food 23

Challenges for optimizing WP in irrigated agriculture under water scarcity The historical evolution of irrigation management has followed a clear trend WRZDUGV LPSURYLQJ WKH HI¿FLHQF\ RI ZDWHU XVH )HUHUHV et al. ,UULJDWLRQ practices are traditionally addressed by focusing either on the features of on-farm water management or on the management of irrigation upstream, from GLVWULEXWLRQFDQDOVXSWRWKHZDWHUVKHG6LJQL¿FDQWLPSURYHPHQWLQXQGHUVWDQGLQJ the interactions between on-farm irrigation and basin hydrology has been achieved in recent decades. This has led to the increased recognition that irrigaWLRQ ORVVHV DW WKH IDUP DUH QRW QHFHVVDULO\ ORVVHV IRU WKH EDVLQ 0ROGHQ et al. +RZHYHULQYLHZRIWKHHQHUJ\FRVWVLQFXUUHGIRUUHFRYHULQJWKHORVVHV and of the water quality degradation that occurs once the water is used, the concept of recoverable losses must be analyzed carefully for every situation, taking into consideration all the trade-offs involved in acting on the farm to reduce losses versus recovering them downstream somewhere. The uncertainty associated with the full costs of recovering irrigation losses tends to emphasize on-farm water conservation as the crucial issue in the optimizing of WP in LUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUH1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHUHDUHVRPDQ\IDFWRUVLQYROYHGLQLUULJDWLRQ PDQDJHPHQWWKDWLWZRXOGEHFRXQWHUSURGXFWLYHWRIRFXVMXVWRQDVLQJOHLVVXH$Q DQDO\VLVRIVRPHRIWKHPDMRULVVXHVLQYROYHGLQRSWLPL]LQJ:3IROORZV Optimizing irrigation network management Large, collective irrigation networks were built around the world with the aim of providing irrigation water supply to large numbers of users, thus supporting agricultural development over extensive areas. Many of such networks were built devoting PRUHDWWHQWLRQWRLVVXHVVXFKDVWKHHTXLWDEOHGLVWULEXWLRQRIZDWHUWKDQWRWKHLUHI¿FLHQWRSHUDWLRQ,QIDFWPDQ\RIWKHVHODUJHQHWZRUNVKDYHORZHI¿FLHQFLHVEHLQJ responsible for the frequently heard statement that more than half of the water GLYHUWHGIRULUULJDWLRQLVORVW&OHPPHQV KDVORRNHGLQWRWKHFRQYH\DQFHDQG water distribution processes of large-scale, open channel systems to analyze their SHUIRUPDQFH &OHPPHQV XVHG DQ H[DPSOH RI D UHDVRQDEO\ RSHUDWHG ODUJH network to show that, under traditional management, the chaotic behavior of such a V\VWHPOHDGVWROHVVWKDQSHUFHQWHI¿FLHQF\ZLWKSHUFHQWRIWKHDUHDXQGHU irrigated, and another 20 percent receiving twice as much water as was needed. In PDQ\LQVWDQFHVWKHJRDORIWKRVHPDQDJLQJWKHQHWZRUNKDVEHHQWRMXVWGHOLYHUWKH water without any other consideration regarding its best use. In other cases, even if WKHLQWHQWLRQLVWRRSWLPL]HZDWHUXVHWKHUHDUHLQVXI¿FLHQWPHDVXULQJDQGFRQWURO VWUXFWXUHVWRPDNHWKHQHHGHGDGMXVWPHQWVZKLOHRSHUDWLQJWKHQHWZRUN&OHPPHQV HPSKDVL]HG WKDW VLPSO\ LPSURYLQJ PDQDJHPHQW PD\ EH LQVXI¿FLHQW WR achieve the goals of optimal water use in many networks and he believes that both a change in management philosophy, and the introduction of measuring and control structures at intermediary points along the delivery path, are needed to improve irrigation productivity in large-scale networks.

24 E. Fereres 3ODQQLQJIRUXVLQJWKHDYDLODEOHZDWHURSWLPDOO\ .QRZOHGJHRIWKHLUULJDWLRQVXSSO\DYDLODEOHZLWKVXI¿FLHQWDQWLFLSDWLRQLVSUREDEO\ the most important piece of information that farmers and district managers need ahead of the season, particularly when facing water scarcity. One would have expected that all the investments in climate change-related research would have yielded by now the science needed to make reliable seasonal predictions, but unforWXQDWHO\WKLVLVQRWWKHFDVH&RXSOHGZLWKWKLVXQFHUWDLQW\LVWKHFRQVHUYDWLYHQHVVRI many water agencies, not willing to take risks or to undertake multi-year storage approaches in their water-planning scenarios. The result is that in most world areas, JURZHUV GR QRW KDYH VXI¿FLHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ WR SODQ DKHDG ZKHQ WKH VWDUW RI WKH VHDVRQDSSURDFKHVDQGWKH\HLWKHUWDNHDFRQVHUYDWLYHDWWLWXGHDQGORVHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRULQFUHDVHGLQFRPH RUPXVWDFFHSWULVNVRIDQXQNQRZQPDJQLWXGH7KHXVH of decision support systems composed of simulation models coupled with longterm weather records could reduce uncertainty and therefore manage risks when making decisions on water allocation, such as the distribution to different crops at the start of the season. Until now, decision support systems to decide how much area should be devoted to the different crops, given the level of anticipated supply, are not readily available. At the core of such systems are the yield prediction models that simulate the yield response to different levels of irrigation. Such models at present are either totally empirical or too complex to be utilized by end users. 3UHGLFWLQJDWWDLQDEOHZDWHUOLPLWHG\LHOGIRUWKHSODQQLQJDQG management of irrigation %HFDXVHRIWKHFRPSOH[LWLHVLQYROYHGLQFURS\LHOGUHVSRQVHWRZDWHUPRVWHFRnomic optimization analyses have used, as the technical input for Y prediction, water production functions, which are empirical relationships between Y and ZDWHUFRQVXPHGRU(7'RUHQERRVDQG.DVVDP9DX[DQG3UXLWW The accumulation of knowledge on crop growth and development in recent decades has led to the formulation of computer simulation models for Y predicWLRQRIWKHPDMRUFURSVEXWVXFKPRGHOVKDYHEHHQSULPDULO\XVHGLQUHVHDUFK and by researchers rather than as management tools by end users. The primary reason for this is that crop simulation models are built by researchers and are quite elaborate and complex, as they are based on physiological mechanisms rather than on empirical relations, to be able to generalize their outputs to all environments. Also, the inclination of model builders has not always been in the direction of simplifying them for practical applications. Under the auspices RI)$2DVLPXODWLRQPRGHOQDPHG$TXD&URSKDVEHHQGHYHORSHGIRUWKHVLPXODWLRQRIDWWDLQDEOH\LHOGVRIWKHPDMRUKHUEDFHRXVFURSVDVDIXQFWLRQRIZDWHU VXSSO\ 6WHGXWR et al. $TXD&URS LV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH UHYLVLRQ RI WKH )$2,UULJDWLRQDQG'UDLQDJH3DSHU1R³
Optimizing water productivity for food 25 VLJQL¿FDQWIHDWXUHVRI$TXD&URSDUHL LWLVDGDLO\WLPHVWHSPRGHOZKLFKLV ³ZDWHUGULYHQ´ LQ WKDW WUDQVSLUDWLRQ LV FDOFXODWHG ¿UVW DQG WUDQVODWHG LQWR ELRPDVVXVLQJDFRQVHUYDWLYHFURSVSHFL¿FSDUDPHWHUWKHELRPDVVZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH FURS 6WHGXWR et al. WKDW LV QRUPDOL]HG IRU DWPRVSKHULF evaporative demand and carbon dioxide concentration. The climate normalizaWLRQ SURFHGXUH PDNHV $TXD&URS DSSOLFDEOH WR GLYHUVH ORFDWLRQV DQG VHDVRQV ZLWKWKHFDSDELOLW\WRSUHGLFWFURSUHVSRQVHVXQGHUIXWXUHFOLPDWHVFHQDULRVLL the model uses canopy ground cover instead of leaf area index, as a surrogate of intercepted radiation, and to separate transpiration from soil evaporation, the ODWWHUEHLQJVLPXODWHGIROORZLQJDPRGL¿HG5LWFKLHDSSURDFKLLL FURS\LHOGLV FDOFXODWHGDVWKHSURGXFWRIELRPDVVDQGDKDUYHVWLQGH[+, $IWHUDODJSKDVH HI increases linearly with time until near physiological maturity. Other than for the yield, there is no biomass partitioning into the various organs. This choice DYRLGV WKH PDMRULW\ RI XQFHUWDLQWLHV OLQNHG WR WKLV IXQGDPHQWDO SURFHVV WKDW UHPDLQVDPRQJWKHPRVWGLI¿FXOWWRPRGHODQGLY WKHFURSUHVSRQVHVWRVRLO ZDWHUGH¿FLWVDUHVLPXODWHGZLWKIRXUGLIIHUHQWUHODWLRQVKLSVEDVHGRQWKHGLIIHUHQWLDO VHQVLWLYLW\ RI SODQW UHVSRQVHV WR ZDWHU VWUHVV +VLDR 7KH SDUDPHWHUV DIIHFWHG E\ ZDWHU GH¿FLWV DUH WKRVH UHJXODWLQJ FDQRS\ H[SDQVLRQ stomatal control of transpiration, canopy senescence, and harvest index, all PRGXODWHGE\ZDWHUGH¿FLWV The model simulates the water content of the crop root zone using a water EDODQFH PRGHO 5DHV et al. DQG NHHSV WUDFN RI LQFRPLQJ DQG RXWJRLQJ ÀX[HV DW LWV ERXQGDULHV PDNLQJ LW VXLWDEOH IRU VLPXODWLQJ GLIIHUHQW ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQWVFHQDULRVUDLQIHGDQGVXSSOHPHQWDOGH¿FLWDQGIXOOLUULJDWLRQ 6LPXlations are carried out both on calendar and thermal time. Simulation results are plotted throughout the simulation run in a number of graphs, and the user can switch between several visual displays: root-zone depletion, canopy cover, crop transpiration, soil evaporation, distribution of the soil water in the root zone, above-ground biomass production, etc. In other tabular sheets, parameters and YDOXHVRIWKHVRLOZDWHUEDODQFHRURIWKHLPSDFWRIZDWHUVWUHVVFDQEHDVVHVVHG 5HVXOWVDUHUHFRUGHGDVZHOOLQRXWSXW¿OHVWKDWFDQEHUHWULHYHGLQVSUHDGVKHHW programs for further processing and data analysis. The model has been calibrated VXFFHVVIXOO\IRUVHYHUDOFURSVHJ+VLDR et al. IRUPDL]H DQGKDVGHPRQstrated its robustness in different environments. One important application of this type of model would be to couple the results of the simulations with economic optimization models to develop the decision support systems needed to plan the optimal levels of water allocation and thus of WP at the farm and GLVWULFWOHYHOV*DUFLD9LOD et al. &RXSOLQJHQJLQHHULQJDQGPDQDJHPHQWWRRSWLPL]HRQIDUP:3 As already stated, it is important to quantify the proportion of irrigation water that is consumptively used by the crop and the proportion that is used consumptively. Water used consumptively either leaves the basin or becomes inaccessible for further use; water lost in evaporation from the soil surface and transpiration

26 E. Fereres from the foliage is considered consumed, while runoff and deep percolation are QRQFRQVXPSWLYHXVHVRIZDWHU,UULJDWLRQLVWVXVHWKHWHUPLUULJDWLRQHI¿FLHQF\WR GHVFULEHWKHIUDFWLRQRIDSSOLHGZDWHUWKDWLVFRQVXPHGE\WKHFURS%XUW et al. 7KH ORVVHV WKDW RFFXU LQ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI LUULJDWLRQ PD\ EH HVWLPDWHG ZKHQWKHHI¿FLHQF\WHUPLVNQRZQ,UULJDWLRQLVDSSOLHGWRDZKROH¿HOGDQGD critical issue relates to the spatial distribution of the applied water within the ¿HOG3HUKDSVGLVWULEXWLQJWKHGHVLUHGDPRXQWXQLIRUPO\RYHUWKHZKROH¿HOGLV the most important concern for those interested in achieving high WP in their irrigation. Uniform distribution is required to avoid under-irrigation of some SDUWVRIWKH¿HOGDQGRYHULUULJDWLRQRIRWKHUV6HYHUDOSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHTXDQWL¿FDWLRQRIGLVWULEXWLRQXQLIRUPLW\KDYHEHHQSURSRVHGRYHUWKH\HDUVEDVHGRQ PHDVXUHV RI WKH PLQLPXP DQG DYHUDJH ZDWHU DSSOLFDWLRQ GHSWKV RYHU WKH ¿HOG The importance of uniformity of distribution can be easily understood when examining Figure 2.3; when uniformity is relatively low, but commonly found in WKH¿HOGLQPDQ\ZRUOGDUHDVWKHGHSWKRIZDWHUDSSOLHGPXVWEHWZLFHWKHQHW LUULJDWLRQ UHTXLUHPHQWV WR DWWDLQ PD[LPXP \LHOGV %\ FRQWUDVW ZLWK KLJK XQLIRUPLW\ SHUFHQW ZKLFK LV FXUUHQWO\ DFKLHYDEOH ZLWK SUHVHQW WHFKQRORJLHV OHVV WKDQ SHUFHQW PRUH ZDWHU LV UHTXLUHG IRU PD[LPXP SURGXFWLRQ )LJXUH IRUDVHDVRQDOQHWUHTXLUHPHQWRIPPWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQJURVVLUULJDWLRQ requirements for the two situations amounts to 400 mm!

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Figure 2.3 Simulation of relative corn yield under two levels of irrigation uniformity, 70 SHUFHQW DQG SHUFHQW RI &KULVWLDQVHQ XQLIRUPLW\ FRHI¿FLHQW DGDSWHG IURP Fereres et al. 1RWH 1,5LQGLFDWHVQHWLUULJDWLRQUHTXLUHPHQWV

Optimizing water productivity for food 27 2SWLPL]LQJLUULJDWLRQVFKHGXOLQJ7KHFDVHRIGH¿FLWLUULJDWLRQ Optimization of on-farm water management may be achieved by using irrigation VFKHGXOLQJ,6 WHFKQLTXHVWRSUHFLVHO\GHWHUPLQHWKHGDWHDQGDPRXQWRILUULJDWLRQ )HUHUHV )RU WKH PRVW SDUW ,6 WHFKQLTXHV KDYH DOUHDG\ EHHQ GHYHORSHG DOWKRXJK QHZ UH¿QHPHQWV XVLQJ QHZ VHQVRUV SDUWLFXODUO\ IRU SODQW water status monitoring are possible and have been experimented with successIXOO\)HUHUHV et al. 1999; Goldhamer et al. *ROGKDPHUDQG)HUHUHV Until now, adoption of even the most standard IS techniques has not been widespread for a variety of reasons discussed below. However, in cases where either irrigation networks have been designed to meet only a fraction of the crop GHPDQGRUZKHQWKHZDWHUDOORFDWLRQLVEHORZWKHFURSUHTXLUHPHQWVGH¿FLWLUULgation must be used and it would be critical to increase the precision with which irrigation water is used; thus, technical scheduling procedures should be followed to compute the crop water needs. Water scarcity in many irrigated agricultural areas of the world is becoming WKH QRUP UDWKHU WKDQ WKH H[FHSWLRQ ,Q WKHVH FDVHV LPSURYLQJ LUULJDWLRQ HI¿FLHQF\E\PLQLPL]LQJORVVHVWRUXQRIIDQGGHHSSHUFRODWLRQZRXOGQRWEHVXI¿cient to optimize WP, simply because the water supply would not be enough. In VXFKFDVHVWKHXVHRIGH¿FLWLUULJDWLRQVWUDWHJLHVLVWKHRQO\YLDEOHDOWHUQDWLYHWR sustain irrigated production, particularly in drought years. In particular, regulated GH¿FLWLUULJDWLRQ5', RIIHUVSURPLVHLQIUXLWWUHHVDQGYLQHVDVDSUDFWLFHWKDW FDQPDLQWDLQIDUPHUV¶LQFRPHZKLOHXVLQJOHVVZDWHU)HUHUHVDQG6RULDQR 5HVHDUFKKDVGHYHORSHG5',VWUDWHJLHVIRUVRPHRIWKHPDLQIUXLWWUHHFURSVHJ &KDOPHUV et al. 1981; Goldhamer et al. EXWDGGLWLRQDOUHVHDUFKLVQHHGHG to understand the underlying responses to stress management and to evaluate the ORQJWHUPHIIHFWVRI5',SDUWLFXODUO\WKHVDOLQLW\WKUHDW1HYHUWKHOHVV5',KDV VKRZQVXI¿FLHQWSURPLVHWREHVFDOHGXSWRIDUPVLQZDWHUVKRUWDUHDVDQGLWLVD proven technology for use under water scarcity in a number of perennial crops, such as wine grapes, olives, citrus, pistachios, and peaches, among others. There LVDQXUJHQWQHHGWRGHYHORSRSWLPDO5',SURJUDPVWRJHWKHUZLWKQHZPRQLWRULQJ DSSURDFKHV WR PLQLPL]H WKH ULVNV RI LQGXFLQJ VHYHUH VWUHVV LQDGYHUWHQWO\ and to disseminate these programs among users. 0RQLWRULQJHYDOXDWLRQDQGUHDOWLPHIHHGEDFNIRULPSURYLQJ irrigation performance One inherent problem that researchers and practitioners have had when monitoring irrigation practices is the spatial variability in soil, crop, and irrigation system parameters, which makes point observations of limited value when charDFWHUL]LQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH ZKROH ¿HOG 5HFHQW DGYDQFHV LQ WKH VFLHQFH DQGWHFKQRORJ\RIUHPRWHVHQVLQJDUH¿QDOO\DIWHUVHYHUDOGHFDGHVRISURPLVHV GHOLYHULQJ WRROV IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI D QXPEHU RI ¿HOG SURSHUWLHV UHODWHG WR ZDWHU7KHJRDOLVWRDVVHVV¿HOGZDWHUXVHZLWKVXI¿FLHQWSUHFLVLRQWREHDEOHWR evaluate performance and to make recommendations for its improvement almost

28 E. Fereres in real time, a prerequisite for the use of this information in irrigation management. For example, Allen et al. KDYH FRPELQHG VDWHOOLWH LPDJHV ZLWK ODQGVXUIDFHHQHUJ\EDODQFHWHFKQLTXHVWRHVWLPDWH(7IRU¿HOGVDQG/RULWH et al. KDYH DSSOLHG VXFK DQ DSSURDFK WR WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI LUULJDWLRQ SHUIRUPDQFH6WLOOLQWHUYDOVEHWZHHQVDWHOOLWHLPDJHVQRZGD\V SUHFOXGHWKHXVHRI these techniques for management or advisory services. Also, the pixel size of images is too large for many applications. These limitations are being overcome ZLWK WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI XQPDQQHG DHULDO YHKLFOHV ZLWK VHQVRUV IRU H[DPSOH %HUQL et al. WKDWFDQÀ\GDLO\RUHYHQVHYHUDOWLPHVDGD\RYHU¿HOGVFROOHFWLQJ LPDJHV WKHUPDO DQG PXOWLVSHFWUDO WKDW DUH GHWDLOHG HQRXJK RQFH SUR FHVVHGDQGFRUUHFWO\LQWHUSUHWHG WRSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQDWWKH¿HOGVFDOHZKLFK is relevant for decision making in irrigation management. All these recent developments offer new options for improving water productivity in food production under irrigated conditions.

Bridging the gap in the improvement of water productivity It is apparent from the discussion above that there exist many avenues for improving WP in both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture at the technical level. Also, the behavior of the system is well understood, and management approaches can be designed for every situation. It is also true that the improvement of water management in agriculture has progressed more slowly than other advances in the agricultural sciences. The question is then: is it possible to move forward faster than we have in the last decades? A primary limitation is associated with the LQKHUHQW GLI¿FXOWLHV RI FRQWUROOLQJ DQG PDQDJLQJ ZDWHU LQ DJULFXOWXUH :DWHU supply is, by its nature, uncertain, and the demand also varies in space and time. )RU PRVW DJULFXOWXUDO RSHUDWLRQV IHUWLOL]DWLRQ VSUD\LQJ RQO\ D IHZ GHFLVLRQV must be made in every season while, for irrigation, many decisions per season are UHTXLUHG 7KHUH DUH RWKHU LPSRUWDQW FRQVWUDLQWV LQ WKH HI¿FLHQW PDQDJHPHQW RI water, most of them economical, social, institutional, and cultural. From the farmer’s viewpoint, in situations of limited knowledge and control, the risks of underirrigating greatly outweigh those of irrigating in excess. If supply is adequate WKHUH LV QR REMHFWLYH UHDVRQ IRU IDUPHUV WR DVVXPH PRUH ULVNV WR LQFUHDVH :3 ZKLFK LV VHOGRP D PDQDJHPHQW REMHFWLYH RI LQGLYLGXDO LUULJDWRUV 7KH ODFN RI economic incentives to increase WP is usually related to low water prices or to an inadequate price structure that does not promote conservation. In many countries, LQVWLWXWLRQDOGHYHORSPHQWLVVWLOOLQVXI¿FLHQWDVZHOODVWKHIDUPHUV¶SDUWLFLSDWLRQ in management. Uncertainties about water rights are also a limitation to water savings. The common tendency of farmers that are able to raise WP by reducing water use is to apply those savings to irrigate additional lands. Finally, there are LQVXI¿FLHQW HGXFDWLRQDO HIIRUWV LQ WKH H[WHQVLRQ DQG GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI ZDWHU conservation technologies to promote widespread adoption. All of these OLPLWDWLRQVIHHGWKHSUHYDLOLQJYLHZDPRQJPDQ\PRVWO\H[SHUWVWKDWKDYHKDG H[SHULHQFH LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV LQ WKH SDVW WKDW WHFKQRORJLFDO DGYDQFHV LQ ZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDUHRIOLWWOHYDOXHIRUWKHPDMRULW\RIIDUPHUVLQWKHZRUOG

Optimizing water productivity for food 29 5HFHQW SURJUHVV LQ WKH PDMRULW\ RI DJULFXOWXUDO V\VWHPV LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH VLWXDWLRQLVFKDQJLQJUDSLGO\KRZHYHU)RULQVWDQFHLQERWK&KLQDDQG,QGLD WKHWZRFRXQWULHVZLWKWKHODUJHVWLUULJDWHGDFUHDJH:3KDVLQFUHDVHGVLJQL¿cantly in the last two decades with the fast rise of average yields. Also, drip LUULJDWLRQDQGLWVDVVRFLDWHGPDQDJHPHQWFKDQJHVDUHH[SDQGLQJUDSLGO\&ROlective irrigation networks are managed with much more participation from all stakeholders worldwide. The trend towards measuring water use and for volume charges in irrigation is unstoppable. In water-short areas, the shift towards high-value crops and to water markets in drought years is evident. Modernization of irrigation networks is taking place in many world areas, and investment in modern infrastructure has picked up relative to what was occurring in the recent past. The widespread use of groundwater in newly developed DUHDV LQ VRPH FDVHV EH\RQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHODWLYHO\ KLJK WP values, given the economic incentive in limiting the energy usage in SXPSLQJZHOOZDWHU5HFHQWSURJUHVVLQHQKDQFLQJ:3LQUDLQIHGV\VWHPVLV LQSDUWGLUHFWO\OLQNHGZLWKWKHH[SDQVLRQRIFRQVHUYDWLRQDJULFXOWXUH&RQVHUYDWLRQDJULFXOWXUH&$ LQFUHDVHV:3UHODWLYHWRFRQYHQWLRQDOVRLOPDQDJHPHQW SUDFWLFHVE\LQFUHDVLQJVWRUHGVRLOZDWHUGXHWRUHGXFHGUXQRII DQGE\UHGXcing evaporation from the soil surface. There has been substantial adoption of &$SUDFWLFHVLQ/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGSDUWVRI$VLDDQG1RUWK$PHULFD$OWKRXJK QRWDSDQDFHD*LOOHUet al. &$PD\KDYHLWVSODFHLQPDQ\DJULFXOWXUDO systems around the world. All the new developments listed above provide quite a different view from the pessimistic perceptions that some have relative to the GLI¿FXOWLHV XVXDOO\ HQFRXQWHUHG LQ EULGJLQJ WKH JDS EHWZHHQ SRWHQWLDO DQG DFWXDO:3$VDQH[DPSOHDPDMRUVHHGFRPSDQ\LVSXEOLFL]LQJZLGHO\LWVJRDO RI LPSURYLQJ :3 E\ RQH WKLUG LQ WKH IRUWKFRPLQJ \HDUV MXVW E\ SURYLGLQJ improved seeds to the market. Similar or even better goals may be achieved by WKH SXEOLF VHFWRU LI WKH DGRSWLRQ RI MXGLFLRXV ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW SUDFWLFHV becomes more widespread, in particular in areas where yields and their associated WP are still low.

Conclusion and policy implications There is no question that substantial potential exists for improving water producWLYLW\ LQ IRRG SURGXFWLRQ :DWHU SURGXFWLYLW\ SHU VH LV QRW DQ REMHFWLYH WR EH pursued in isolation, but in the context of achieving an optimum balance between FURSSURGXFWLYLW\DQGZDWHUXVHLQDQHUDRILQFUHDVHGZDWHUVFDUFLW\1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ WKH GLI¿FXOWLHV QRUPDOO\ HQFRXQWHUHG LQ UDWLRQDOL]LQJ WKH PDQDJHPHQW of water in agriculture, there appear to be new opportunities in both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture to make a qualitative leap in the improvement of water use and productivity in world areas where WP is still low. The driving forces behind HI¿FLHQF\LPSURYHPHQWVDUHWKHLQFUHDVHVLQIRRGGHPDQGH[SHFWHGWRFRQWLQXH in the next decades, and the uncertainties in future water supplies, due to climate change in the case of rain-fed systems, and to competition from other sectors in the case of irrigation.

30 E. Fereres The discussion above illustrates the large panoply of technical approaches and WRROVWKDWIDUPHUVKDYHWRPDQDJHZDWHUMXGLFLRXVO\0DQ\RIWKHPDUHDOUHDG\LQ use and are responsible for the high WP associated with the high yields obtained in some areas. The fact that adoption of many of these techniques has been slow RU HYHQ QHJOLJLEOH LQ PDQ\ RWKHU SODFHV KLJKOLJKWV WKH LQKHUHQW GLI¿FXOWLHV WKDW agricultural water management has, and the need for providing the right incenWLYHV 6XFK GLI¿FXOWLHV VKRXOG QRW GLVFRXUDJH UHQHZHG HIIRUWV WR DGDSW DQG GLVseminate off-the-shelf technologies in areas that have not had access to them, and to incorporate the more recent research advances in the management of water in PRUH DGYDQFHG UHJLRQV )RU LQVWDQFH QHZ VFLHQWL¿F GHYHORSPHQWV FDQ JUHDWO\ improve the precision in irrigation, thus reducing water losses, although they may not be adopted unless they are integrated within the services that water agencies SURYLGH WR XVHUV 'H¿FLW LUULJDWLRQ LQ ZDWHUVFDUFH DUHDV RU GURXJKW \HDUV PD\ save water, but there are uncertainties relative to its sustainability, and about the OHJDOLVVXHVUHODWHGWRWKHRZQHUVKLSRIWKHZDWHUVDYHG%RWKH[DPSOHVLOOXVWUDWH the need to integrate the technical solutions within the social and cultural context of water users. Above all, however, what is most needed are more and better educational efforts for both water managers and farmers. Such efforts need to be conducted at an unprecedented level, both in the more advanced countries and in the countries and areas that are lagging behind.

References $OOHQ5*7DVXPL00RUVH$7UH]]D5.UDPEHU:/RULWH,-DQG5RELQVRQ &: 6DWHOOLWHEDVHGHQHUJ\EDODQFHIRUPDSSLQJHYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQZLWKLQWHUQDOL]HG FDOLEUDWLRQ 0(75,& ± $SSOLFDWLRQV Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering$6&( ± %HUQL-$-=DUFR7HMDGD3-6XDUH]/)HUHUHV( 7KHUPDODQGQDUURZEDQG multispectral remote sensing for vegetation monitoring from an unmanned aerial vehicle, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing ± %OXP$ (IIHFWLYHXVHRIZDWHU(8: DQGQRWZDWHUXVHHI¿FLHQF\:8( LVWKH target of crop yield improvement under drought stress, Field Crops Research, ± ± %XUW&0&OHPPHQV$-6WUHONRII766RORPRQ.+%OLHVQHU5'+RZHOO7$ DQG(LVHQKDXHU'( ,UULJDWLRQSHUIRUPDQFHPHDVXUHV(I¿FLHQF\DQGXQLIRUPity, Journal of Irrigation Drainage Division$6&( ± &DVVPDQ.* &URSVFLHQFHWRDVVXUHIRRGVHFXULW\LQ-1|VEHUJHU++*HLJHU DQG 3& 6WUXLN HGV Crop Science: Progress and Prospects 2[IRUG &$%, SS 33–52. &KDOPHUV'-0LWFKHOO3'DQGYDQ+HHN/$* &RQWURORISHDFKWUHHJURZWK and productivity by regulated water supply, tree density, and summer pruning, Journal of the American Society of Horticultural Science ± &OHPPHQV $- ,PSURYLQJ LUULJDWHG DJULFXOWXUH SHUIRUPDQFH WKURXJK DQ XQGHUstanding of the water delivery process, Irrigation and Drainage ± GH :LW &7 7UDQVSLUDWLRQ DQG FURS \LHOGV 9HUVO /DQGERXZN 2QGHU] ± ,QVWLWXWH RI %LRORJLFDO DQG &KHPLFDO 5HVHDUFK RQ )LHOG &URSV DQG +HUEDJH :DJHQLQJHQ1HWKHUODQGV

Optimizing water productivity for food 31 'RUHQERRV - DQG .DVVDP $+
32 E. Fereres 0RHOOHU&6PLWK,$VVHQJ6/XGZLJ)DQG7HOFLN1 7KHSRWHQWLDOYDOXH RIVHDVRQDOIRUHFDVWVRIUDLQIDOOFDWHJRULHV&DVHVWXGLHVIURPWKHZKHDWEHOWLQ:HVWHUQ Australia’s Mediterranean region, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 606–618. 0ROGHQ'HG Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, London: Earthscan. 2UJD] ) )HUQiQGH] 0' %RQDFKHOD 6 *DOODUGR 0 DQG )HUHUHV ( (YDpotranspiration of horticultural crops in an unheated plastic greenhouse, Agricultural Water Management ± 2UWL] 5 6D\UH .' *RYDHUWV % *XSWD 5 6XEEDUDR *9 %DQ 7 +RGVRQ ' 'L[RQ -0 2UWL]0RQDVWHULR -, DQG 5H\QROGV 0 &OLPDWH FKDQJH &DQ wheat beat the heat? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment± ± 3DVVLRXUD-% *UDLQ\LHOGKDUYHVWLQGH[DQGZDWHUXVHRIZKHDWJournal of the Australian Institute of Agricultural Science, 43, 117–120. 5DHV ' 6WHGXWR 3 +VLDR 7& DQG )HUHUHV ( $TXD&URS 7KH )$2 FURS model to simulate yield response to water II: Software, Agronomy Journal 438–447. 5LFKDUGV5$ 3K\VLRORJLFDOWUDLWVXVHGLQWKHEUHHGLQJRIQHZFXOWLYDUVLQZDWHU scarce environments, Agricultural Water Management± ± 6DGUDV92DQG$QJXV-) %HQFKPDUNLQJZDWHUXVHHI¿FLHQF\RIUDLQIHGZKHDW in dry environments, Australian Journal of Agricultural Research ± 6DOHNGHK*+5H\QROGV0%HQQHWW-DQG%R\HU- &RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUN for drought phenotyping during molecular breeding, Trends in Plant Science 488–496. 6LQFODLU753XUFHOO/&6QHOOHU&+ &URSWUDQVIRUPDWLRQDQGWKHFKDOOHQJH to increase yield potential, Trends in Plant Science ± 6WHGXWR3+VLDR7&DQG)HUHUHV( 2QWKHFRQVHUYDWLYHEHKDYLRURIELRPDVV water productivity, Irrigation Science ± 6WHGXWR 3 +VLDR 7& 5DHV ' DQG )HUHUHV ( $TXD&URS 7KH )$2 FURS PRGHO WR VLPXODWH \LHOG UHVSRQVH WR ZDWHU , &RQFHSWV DQG XQGHUO\LQJ SULQFLSOHV Agronomy Journal ± 7DQQHU&%DQG6LQFODLU75 (I¿FLHQWZDWHUXVHLQFURSSURGXFWLRQUHVHDUFKRU UHVHDUFK"LQ+07D\ORU:$-RUGDQDQG756LQFODLUHGV /LPLWDWLRQVWR(I¿cient Water Use in Crop Production, Madison, WI: ASA, pp. 1–27 9DX[ +- DQG 3UXLWW :2 &URSZDWHU SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV LQ ' +LOOHO HG Advances in Irrigation Volume 21HZ
3

Modern agriculture under stress Lessons from the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia Wendy Craik and James Cleaver

Introduction The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeastern Australia is known as the nation’s “food bowl” (Figure 3.1). A naturally highly variable system, the Basin LVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\GURXJKWVDQGÀRRGV+RZHYHUWKHXQSUHFHGHQWHGORQJHYLW\ DQG VHYHULW\ RI FRQWLQXLQJ GU\ FRQGLWLRQV LV UHVXOWLQJ LQ VLJQL¿FDQW LPSDFWV RQ communities, irrigators and the environment. The Murray-Darling Basin Commission (MDBC) is a natural resource PDQDJHPHQW DJHQF\ WKDW ZRUNV ZLWK VL[ JRYHUQPHQWV WR VXSSO\ ZDWHU IRU LUULJDWRUV DQG XUEDQ FRQVXPHUV DQG WR GHOLYHU HQYLURQPHQWDO SURJUDPV 7KLV FKDSWHU GHVFULEHV SDWWHUQV RI ZDWHU FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ WKH %DVLQ H[SODLQV WKH factors that have contributed to the current extended drought conditions and GHWDLOV WKH UHVSRQVHV E\ WKH 0'%& DQG LUULJDWRUV WR WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV 7KH immediate challenges of the drought and the future challenges associated with climate change are discussed.

Geography of the basin 7KH0'%FRYHUVSHUFHQWRIVRXWKHDVWHUQ$XVWUDOLDDSSUR[LPDWHO\PLOOLRQ VTXDUHNLORPHWHUVDQGURXJKO\WZLFHWKHVL]HRI6SDLQ7ZRPLOOLRQSHRSOHOLYH LQWKH%DVLQDQGDUHGHSHQGHQWRQLWIRUWKHLUGULQNLQJZDWHUDVDUHDQRWKHU million residents of the city of Adelaide. Long-term average rainfall in the Basin LVDSSUR[LPDWHO\PLOP3SHUDQQXP\HWWKHYDVWPDMRULW\RIWKLVHYDSRUDWHV $YHUDJH DQQXDO UXQRII LV PLOP3 ZLWK PLOP3 of long-term average diversions. 6LJQL¿FDQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ UDLQIDOO DQG LQÀRZ UHOLDELOLW\ H[LVW EHWZHHQ WKH QRUWKHUQ'DUOLQJ5LYHU DQGVRXWKHUQ0XUUD\5LYHU SDUWVRIWKH%DVLQ7KHVH GLIIHUHQFHV KDYH LQÀXHQFHG LUULJDWLRQ GHYHORSPHQW ZDWHU XVDJH DQG SODQQLQJ +LVWRULFDOO\WKHPRVWUHOLDEOHUDLQIDOOLQWKH%DVLQRFFXUVLQWKHDOSLQHUHJLRQVRI WKHVRXWKHDVWZKLFKVXSSOLHVWKH0XUUD\5LYHUV\VWHP7KHPRXQWDLQRXVUHOLHI of this high-rainfall, high-reliability region (shown as dark in Figure 3.1) has IDFLOLWDWHGWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIPDMRUGDPVWRVWRUHUXQRII7KH0XUUD\5LYHULV KLJKO\ UHJXODWHG WKH WZR ODUJHVW GDPV DUH +XPH 'DP PLOP3) and

34 W. Craik and J. Cleaver 'DUWPRXWK 'DP PLOP3 7KH KLVWRULFDOO\ KLJK UHOLDELOLW\ RI LQÀRZV LQWR WKHVH GDPV KDV VXSSRUWHG WKH FUHDWLRQ RI YHU\ KLJKUHOLDELOLW\ LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU HQWLWOHPHQWV DQG VXSSOLHG XUEDQ DQG GRPHVWLF ZDWHU VXSSOLHV WKURXJKRXW WKH southern Basin. 7KHQRUWKHUQ%DVLQLVYHU\ÀDWDQGKDVIDUOHVVUHOLDEOHLQÀRZVWKDQWKHVRXWK (SLVRGLFUDLQIDOOHYHQWVOHDGWRPDMRUÀRRGLQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\RQFHHYHU\GHFDGH OHDGLQJWRRSSRUWXQLVWLFZDWHUXVHE\LUULJDWRUV:KHQLQÀRRGWKH'DUOLQJ5LYHU FDQ FRQWULEXWH VLJQL¿FDQW ÀRZV WR WKH 0XUUD\ V\VWHP +RZHYHU WKHVH ÀRZV FDQQRWEHUHOLHGXSRQIRUKLJKVHFXULW\0XUUD\5LYHUHQWLWOHPHQWV0RVWRIWKH ÀRZIURPWKHKLJKUDLQIDOODUHDVRIWKHQRUWKHUQ%DVLQLVGLPLQLVKHGE\WUDQVPLVVLRQORVVHVDQGHYDSRUDWLRQEHIRUHUHDFKLQJWKH0XUUD\ ,Q WKH 0XUUD\ 5LYHU VXEVWDQWLDO GLVWDQFHV H[LVW EHWZHHQ WKH SRLQW RI ZDWHU LQWHUFHSWLRQPRVWO\LQ+XPHDQG'DUWPRXWKGDPVDQGWKHORFDWLRQVDWZKLFKLW LV FRQVXPHG /RVVHV RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLOP3 are incurred annually EHWZHHQ WKH +XPH 'DP DQG WKH 6RXWK $XVWUDOLDQ ERUGHU DSSUR[LPDWHO\ NP /RVVHVWRGHHSSHUFRODWLRQHYDSRUDWLRQFKDQQHOFDSDFLW\LVVXHVDQG ÀXFWXDWLQJ GHPDQG FDQ FUHDWH VLJQL¿FDQW FKDOOHQJHV HVSHFLDOO\ LQ GU\ SHULRGV ZKHQWULEXWDU\LQÀRZVFDQQRWEHUHOLHGXSRQWRDXJPHQWVWRUDJHUHOHDVHV 7KLV FKDSWHU ZLOO IRFXV RQ WKH H[SHFWHG LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WKH H[SHULHQFH RI WKH FXUUHQW GURXJKW RQ WKH KLJK UHOLDELOLW\ VRXWKHUQ %DVLQ WKH 0XUUD\5LYHUV\VWHP 7KHFDSDFLW\RIWKH0XUUD\WRFRQWLQXHWRVXSSO\ZDWHU DWOHYHOVEDVHGRQKLVWRULFDODYHUDJHVIRUKXPDQFRQVXPSWLRQDQGLUULJDWLRQKDV come into question.

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Figure 3.1 Rainfall distribution in the Murray-Darling Basin.

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General water use in the MDB 7KH0'%DFFRXQWVIRUSHUFHQWRIWKHYDOXHRI$XVWUDOLD¶VDJULFXOWXUDORXWSXW 3LQN 7KHYDVWEXONRIDJULFXOWXUDOODQGLQWKH0'%LVQRWLUULJDWHGRQO\ SHUFHQWRI0'%ODQGLVLUULJDWHGDQG\HWWKLVSURGXFHVSHUFHQWRIWKHYDOXH RI$XVWUDOLD¶VLUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUDORXWSXW3LQN :DWHUXVHLQWKH%DVLQ UHÀHFWVWKHUHOLDELOLW\RILWVVXSSO\$QQXDOFURSSLQJVXFKDVFRWWRQDQGJUDLQ VXLWV WKH HSLVRGLF ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH QRUWKHUQ %DVLQ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ H[WUHPHO\ YDULDEOH UDLQIDOO &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH QRUWKHUQ %DVLQ¶V SHUPDQHQW horticulture relies mostly on groundwater. The southern (Murray) system, with LWV PRUH UHOLDEOH VXUIDFH ZDWHU VXSSO\ VXSSRUWV VLJQL¿FDQW SHUPDQHQW KRUWLFXOWXUH DV ZHOO DV DQQXDO FURSSLQJ DQG LUULJDWHG SDVWXUHV LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH IRU WKH dairy industry. /RQJWHUP DYHUDJH ZDWHU GLYHUVLRQ LQ WKH 0XUUD\ V\VWHP LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLOP3+RZHYHUDWRWDORIPLOP3 of Murray River water is allocated WRLUULJDWLRQHQWLWOHPHQWVDSSUR[LPDWHO\PLOP3 of high-reliability water is XVHGIRUHQWLWOHPHQWVDQGDSSUR[LPDWHO\PLOP3 of low-reliability water is XVHGIRUHQWLWOHPHQWV7KHVSHFL¿FDWWULEXWHVRIKLJKDQGORZUHOLDELOLW\LUULJDWLRQ water entitlements vary between states and river valleys. On the Murray River, the long-term average allocation against the high-reliability Victorian entitlePHQW FDOOHG D ³ZDWHU ULJKW´ LV SHUFHQW1 The long-term average allocation DJDLQVW WKH ORZUHOLDELOLW\ 9LFWRULDQ HQWLWOHPHQW FDOOHG ³VDOHV ZDWHU´ LV SHUFHQW$SSUR[LPDWHO\PLOP3 of Murray River water is used by urban and domestic consumers each year. The largest consumer of this water is the city of $GHODLGHPLOP3), near the end of the Murray River.

The history of the Murray-Darling Basin Commission 7KH0'%&LVDQXQLQFRUSRUDWHGMRLQWYHQWXUHDPRQJVL[JRYHUQPHQWV8QOLNH other “commissions” or “authorities,” the MDBC was formed by an agreement DPRQJ WKH VL[ JRYHUQPHQWV RI WKH %DVLQ 1HZ 6RXWK :DOHV 9LFWRULD 6RXWK $XVWUDOLD4XHHQVODQGWKH$XVWUDOLDQ&DSLWDO7HUULWRU\DQGWKH$XVWUDOLDQ*RYHUQPHQW7KH0XUUD\'DUOLQJ%DVLQ$JUHHPHQWWKH$JUHHPHQW LVXQGHUSLQQHGE\SDUDOOHOOHJLVODWLRQLQHDFKMXULVGLFWLRQ7KH$JUHHPHQWHQFRXUDJHVD FROODERUDWLYH DSSURDFK VLQFH DOO PDMRU GHFLVLRQV PXVW EH XQDQLPRXVO\ DJUHHG XSRQ DW WKH 0LQLVWHULDO OHYHO DOO SDUWQHU JRYHUQPHQWV FRQWULEXWH IXQGLQJ DQG PDQ\0'%&SURJUDPVDUHGHOLYHUHGWKURXJKVWDWHJRYHUQPHQWV 7KH$JUHHPHQW¶VSUHGHFHVVRUWKH5LYHU0XUUD\:DWHUV$JUHHPHQWZDV¿UVW VLJQHGLQ1HJRWLDWLRQVRQWKLVDJUHHPHQWRFFXUUHGGXULQJDSHULRGZKHQ Federation and the Australian Constitution were being negotiated, and use of the %DVLQ¶VZDWHUUHVRXUFHVZDVFRQWHVWHG6DQGIRUG&ODUNDQH[SHUWRQOHJDOLVVXHV LQ WKH %DVLQ EHOLHYHV WKDW FRQÀLFWLQJ SODQV IRU XWLOL]LQJ WKH 0XUUD\ 5LYHU KDG VLJQL¿FDQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKH$XVWUDOLDQ&RQVWLWXWLRQ&ODUN In the early days of federation discussions (the later stages of the nineteenth FHQWXU\ WKH0XUUD\5LYHUZDVSULPDULO\XVHGIRUQDYLJDWLRQDQGWUDGH,QDQ

W. Craik and J. Cleaver HIIRUW WR SURWHFW LWV LQWHUHVWV LQ ULYHU QDYLJDELOLW\ 6RXWK $XVWUDOLD WKH PRVW GRZQVWUHDPVWDWH DUJXHGWRLQFOXGHVHFWLRQRIWKH$XVWUDOLDQ&RQVWLWXWLRQ ZKLFKJDYHWKH&RPPRQZHDOWKSRZHUWRSDVVODZVZLWKUHVSHFWWRQDYLJDWLRQ DQG VKLSSLQJ &ODUN 1HZ 6RXWK :DOHV DQG9LFWRULDXSVWUHDPVWDWHV WKDWKDGVWDUWHGWRGHYHORSLUULJDWLRQVHWWOHPHQWVRQWKH0XUUD\DQGLWVWULEXWDULHV LQVLVWHG RQ D EDODQFLQJ SURYLVLRQ 7KH $XVWUDOLDQ &RQVWLWXWLRQ 6HFWLRQ VWDWHVWKDW³WKH&RPPRQZHDOWKVKDOOQRWE\DQ\ODZRUUHJXODWLRQRIWUDGH or commerce, abridge the right of a state or the residents therein to the reasonDEOHXVHRIZDWHUIRUFRQVHUYDWLRQDQGLUULJDWLRQ´7KLVVHFWLRQGH¿QHVULJKWV ZLWK UHJDUG WR ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW DQG QHFHVVLWDWHG D FRRSHUDWLYH DSSURDFK among all the MDB governments to share and manage its water resources &ODUN 7KH RULJLQDO $JUHHPHQW KDG WKUHH REMHFWLYHV WKDW HQVXUHG FRQWLQXHG QDYLJDWDELOLW\EXWDOORZHGLUULJDWLRQGHYHORSPHQW

MRLQWIXQGLQJDUUDQJHPHQWVIRUDQXPEHURIZDWHUVWRUDJHVDQGULYHUUHJXODWLRQVWUXFWXUHVWKDWZHUHWREHEXLOWDORQJWKH0XUUD\5LYHU VSHFL¿FDWLRQRIZDWHUVKDULQJUXOHVDPRQJ1HZ6RXWK:DOHV9LFWRULDDQG 6RXWK $XVWUDOLD 7KHVH UXOHV HIIHFWLYHO\ VKDUHG WKH 5LYHU 0XUUD\¶V ÀRZ EHWZHHQ1HZ6RXWK:DOHVDQG9LFWRULDDQGSURYLGHGDVSHFL¿FDQQXDODQG PRQWKO\YROXPHWRÀRZLQWR6RXWK$XVWUDOLDLQFOXGLQJGLOXWLRQÀRZDQG WKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRID&RPPLVVLRQWKDWZRXOGRYHUVHHWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQDQG maintenance of new structures, ensure water was shared according to the rules and coordinate ongoing water management.

7KH $JUHHPHQW WKDW H[LVWV WRGD\ KDV EHHQ DOWHUHG WLPHV EXW LW ODUJHO\ UHÀHFWVWKHRULJLQDOSULQFLSOHV,QDGGLWLRQWRWKH0'%&¶VIXQFWLRQVSUHVFULEHG E\ WKH $JUHHPHQW QXPHURXV QDWXUDO UHVRXUFH PDQDJHPHQW SURJUDPV KDYH HYROYHGZKLFKWDNHD EURDG FDWFKPHQWDSSURDFK The MDBC’s functions can EH EURDGO\ JURXSHG LQWR WKUHH FDWHJRULHV GD\WRGD\ ULYHU DQG DVVHW PDQDJHPHQWVXVWDLQDEOHUHVRXUFHPDQDJHPHQWDQGSODQQLQJIRUWKHIXWXUH Day-to-day river and asset management ± 7KH 0'%& SHUIRUPV WKUHH NH\ functions in this role.

:DWHU DYDLODELOLW\ DVVHVVPHQWV 7KHVH DVVHVVPHQWV FRQGXFWHG WKURXJKRXW WKH\HDUDUHEDVHGRQWKHDPRXQWRIZDWHULQVWRUDJHWKHPLQLPXPH[SHFWHG LQÀRZVPLQXVH[SHFWHGORVVHV7KLVZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LQIRUPDWLRQLVXVHG E\VWDWHJRYHUQPHQWVWRXSGDWHLUULJDWLRQDOORFDWLRQVDVDSSURSULDWH 5LYHURSHUDWLRQV7KH0'%&GLUHFWVÀRZUHOHDVHVIURPWKHKHDGZDWHUVWRUDJHVDQGPDQDJHVWKHÀRZVDORQJWKHULYHU¶VVHULHVRIZHLUVWRPHHWDOOFRQVXPSWLYHUHTXLUHPHQWVXSVWUHDPRIWKH6RXWK$XVWUDOLDQERUGHUDQGGHOLYHU VSHFL¿HGPRQWKO\ZDWHUTXDQWLWLHVRYHUWKH6RXWK$XVWUDOLDQERUGHU 7KH0'%&FRQWUROVRQEHKDOIRIWKHSDUWQHUJRYHUQPHQWV DQGPDLQWDLQV RYHU ELOOLRQ 86' DSSUR[ ZRUWK3 of water storage and river regulation structures.

Modern agriculture under stress Sustainable resource management – The MDBC coordinates a number of HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG QDWXUDO UHVRXUFH PDQDJHPHQW SURJUDPV 7KHVH SURJUDPV LQFOXGH 7KH &DS RQ GLYHUVLRQV ZKLFK OLPLWV PRVWO\ SULPDU\ LUULJDWLRQ GLYHUVLRQV WKURXJKRXW WKH %DVLQ WR OHYHOV RI GHYHORSPHQW 7KH /LYLQJ 0XUUD\ ,QLWLDWLYH DQ HQYLURQPHQWDO UHFRYHU\ SURJUDP ZKLFK LV UHWXUQLQJ PLOP3 RI ZDWHU WR WKH 0XUUD\ 6\VWHP DQG GHOLYHULQJ LW WR LFRQ VLWHV WKH 1DWLYH)LVK6WUDWHJ\ZKLFKDLPVWRUHVWRUHQDWLYH¿VKSRSXODWLRQWRSHUFHQW RISUH(XURSHDQVHWWOHPHQWOHYHODQGWKH%DVLQ6DOLQLW\0DQDJHPHQW6WUDWHJ\ ZKLFKDLPVWR³KROGWKHOLQH´RQVDOLQLW\IRUHQYLURQPHQWDODQGFRQVXPSWLYHXVH EHQH¿WV Planning for the future – The MDBC is coordinating a recurring Basin-wide survey of river health, called the Sustainable Rivers Audit, which will inform future decision making and environmental management initiatives. The Risks to 6KDUHG :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV 3URJUDP ZDV FUHDWHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR WKH WKUHDW WKDW JURXQGZDWHUH[WUDFWLRQIDUPGDPVXUIDFHZDWHULQWHUFHSWLRQEXVK¿UHVFKDQJHG ODQGXVHSUDFWLFHVDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJHSRVHRQWKHUHOLDELOLW\RIZDWHUUHVRXUFHV 7KH0'%&LVDFWLYHLQGHYHORSLQJDQGFRRUGLQDWLQJSROLF\LQQXPHURXVDUHDVWR IDFLOLWDWHHI¿FLHQWZDWHUXVHDQGDFKLHYHHQYLURQPHQWDORXWFRPHV

The history of the current drought – chronology 'XULQJ WKH HDUO\ SKDVH RI WKH FXUUHQW GURXJKW ± DQQXDO LQÀRZV UHPDLQHG ZLWKLQ WKH 0'%&¶V SODQQLQJ PLQLPXPV DQG KLVWRULFDO YDULDELOLW\ RI WKHV\VWHP³+LJKUHOLDELOLW\´HQWLWOHPHQWVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWO\FORVHWRSHUFHQW DOORFDWHG DQG FULWLFDO VWRFN XUEDQ DQG GRPHVWLF ZDWHU VXSSOLHV ZHUH DOZD\V VHFXUH )LJXUH 7KH EXON RI WKH GURXJKW¶V LPSDFW RQ LUULJDWRUV ZDV IHOW E\ those with traditionally “lower” reliability entitlements. The average Victorian “sales water entitlement” (a low-reliability entitlement) allocation during this WLPHZDVSHUFHQWFRPSDUHGWRDORQJWHUPDYHUDJHRISHUFHQW7KHHQYLURQPHQW DOVR VXIIHUHG GXULQJ WKLV SHULRG :LWKRXW VLJQL¿FDQW QDWXUDO ÀRRGSODLQ LQXQGDWLRQLQWKH0XUUD\9DOOH\VLQFHWKHUHZDVZLGHVSUHDGGHFOLQHLQWKH KHDOWKRIÀRRGSODLQHFRV\VWHPV ,Q FRQGLWLRQV GHWHULRUDWHG VLJQL¿FDQWO\ )LJXUH %\ 6HSWHPEHU LWZDVHYLGHQWWKDWWKHDXWXPQZLQWHUDQGVSULQJLQÀRZVKDGFRPSOHWHO\ IDLOHG WR HYHQWXDWH )LJXUH 7KH 6HSWHPEHU 0'%& GURXJKW XSGDWH forecast that “total River Murray system (water) storage could be drawn down to YHU\ORZOHYHOVE\WKHHQGRIWKHVHDVRQ´ %\1RYHPEHU16:0XUUD\DQG6RXWK$XVWUDOLDQDOORFDWLRQVKDGEHHQ UHGXFHGIRUWKH¿UVWWLPHRQUHFRUG7KLVZDVEHFDXVHDOORFDWLRQDQQRXQFHPHQWV KDG EHHQ EDVHG RQ WKH DPRXQW RI ZDWHU LQ VWRUDJH DQG WKH PLQLPXP H[SHFWHG LQÀRZV IRU WKH UHPDLQGHU RI WKH VHDVRQ 7KLV VWUDWHJ\ ZDV XQGHUSLQQHG E\ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKH PLQLPXP LQÀRZ ZRXOG QRW IDOO EHORZ WKH UHFRUG RI PLOP3 VHW LQ $W WKH HQG RI WRWDO 0XUUD\ 5LYHU DQQXDO LQÀRZV KDG VHW D QHZ UHFRUG ORZ RI PLOP3 DSSUR[LPDWHO\ SHUFHQW EHORZWKHUHFRUG)LJXUH

Figure 3.2 Murray River system total annual irrigation diversions by State.

Rainfall decile ranges Highest on record 10

Very much above average

8–9

Above average

4–7

Average

2–3

Below average

1

Very much below average Lowest on record

Figure 3.3 0XUUD\'DUOLQJ5DLQIDOO'HFLOHV)HEUXDU\WR-DQXDU\VRXUFH %20D

Modern agriculture under stress 39 1,800 Long term average Average 1997/98 – 2007/08 2006/07 (lowest on record) 2007/08

Total monthly inflow (mil m3)

1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov Dec Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

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W. Craik and J. Cleaver Table 3.1 0XUUD\5LYHUV\VWHPDOORFDWLRQVLQ$SULOFRPSDUHGWRORQJWHUPDYHUDJH Entitlement

Allocation in April 2008 (%)

Long-term average April allocation (%)

Victorian Murray high South Australian Murray high 16:0XUUD\KLJK1 16:0XUUXPELGJHHKLJK

43

99

Note 7KHDOORFDWLRQDJDLQVW16:KLJKVHFXULW\0XUUD\5LYHU(QWLWOHPHQWVLVDUHVXOWRIWKHQHHGWR ³SD\EDFN´WKHZDWHUWKDWZDVDOORFDWHGDQGVXEVHTXHQWO\ZLWKKHOGGXULQJGXHWRLQÀRZV EHORZWKHSODQQLQJPLQLPXP

Why has this drought been so severe? $FFRUGLQJWR0XUSK\DQG7LPEDO UDLQIDOOGXULQJWKLVGURXJKWKDVEHHQ FRPSDUDEOH WR SUHYLRXV GU\ SHULRGV LQ WKH V DQG V +RZHYHU LQÀRZV and water availability have been considerably lower. Five factors have made this GURXJKWZRUVHWKDQLQWKHSDVW Over-allocation±WKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHWZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\ZDVVLJQL¿FDQWO\ ZHWWHU WKDQ WKH ¿UVW KDOI &RQVLVWHQWO\ ZHW ZHDWKHU GDP FRQVWUXFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH V DQG DQG WKH DFFHSWHG ZLVGRP WKDW RQO\ D SHUFHQWDJH RI QHZ entitlements would be utilized,4 XQGHUSLQQHG DQ H[SDQVLRQ LQ LUULJDWLRQ HQWLWOHPHQWV$ODUJHUQXPEHURILUULJDWRUVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHUHVRXUFHWKDQGXULQJ SUHYLRXV GURXJKWV KDYH H[DFHUEDWHG LPSDFW RI WKH ZDWHU VKRUWDJH 7KH &DS LQWURGXFHG LQ -XQH OLPLWV ZDWHU H[WUDFWLRQ WR OHYHOV RI GHYHORSPHQW)LJXUH +RZHYHUZKLOHWKHPHFKDQLVPVRI7KH&DSSUHYHQWIXUWKHU

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Modern agriculture under stress 41

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H[SDQVLRQLQZDWHUGLYHUVLRQVWKH&DSOHYHOVGRQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHÀHFW an environmentally sustainable level of extraction. Higher temperatures – according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, WKUHH RI WKH ODVW ¿YH \HDUV LQ WKH %DVLQ KDYH EHHQ WKH KRWWHVW RQ UHFRUG RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ \HDUV RI UHFRUGV %20 E +LJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHV LQFUHDVH HYDSRUDWLRQ DQG GU\ WKH FDWFKPHQW UHVXOWLQJ LQ OHVV UXQRII 5HVHDUFK FRQGXFWHG E\ WKH &RPPRQZHDOWK 6FLHQWL¿F DQG ,QGXVWULDO 5HVHDUFK 2UJDQL]Dtion (CSIRO), a government research agency, indicates that a 1°C increase in WHPSHUDWXUHZLOOUHGXFHUXQRIIE\SHUFHQW&DLDQG&RZDQ 7KHLPSDFW RI KLJKHU WHPSHUDWXUHV DQG D GULHU FDWFKPHQW KDYH EHHQ FOHDUO\ HYLGHQW VLQFH 6HSWHPEHUZKHQD/D1LxDV\VWHPEURXJKWVOLJKWO\DERYHDYHUDJHUDLQIDOO WR PRVW RI WKH 0XUUD\ 5LYHU FDWFKPHQW EHWZHHQ 6HSWHPEHU DQG 0DUFK \HWLQÀRZVUHPDLQHGYHU\ORZ Changed rainfall patterns±5HVHDUFKE\0XUSK\DQG7LPEDO LQGLFDWHV WKDW D VLJQL¿FDQW UHGXFWLRQ LQ DXWXPQ UDLQIDOO KDV RFFXUUHG RYHU WKH 0'%0XUSK\DQG7LPEDOIRXQGWKDW0DUFK$SULODQG0D\KDYHEHHQSURSRUWLRQDOO\ PRUH LPSDFWHG E\ ORZHU UDLQIDOO LQ WKH ODVW GHFDGH WKDQ RWKHU PRQWKV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR )LJXUH 7KH H[SODQDWLRQ RIIHUHG LV WKH VWUHQJWKHQLQJ RI D ³VXEWURSLFDO ULGJH´ RI KLJK SUHVVXUH RYHU WKH %DVLQ during the autumn months. Their research indicates that historically, the subWURSLFDO ULGJH LV SUHVHQW LQ VXPPHU EXW ZHDNHQV DQG PRYHV UDSLGO\ QRUWK during autumn, allowing frontal systems to bring rain to the Basin (and

W. Craik and J. Cleaver

Figure 3.7 0RQWKO\ PHDQ VRXWKHDVWHUQ $XVWUDOLD UDLQIDOO ± ± DQG DQRPDO\VRXUFH0XUSK\DQG7LPEDO

VRXWKHDVWHUQ $XVWUDOLD JHQHUDOO\ 0XUSK\ DQG 7LPEDO OLQN WKH SHUVLVWLQJ VRXWKHUO\ VXEWURSLFDO ULGJH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG WKH HIIHFW RI GLYHUWLQJ DXWXPQ VWRUP V\VWHPV WR WKH VRXWK RI WKH %DVLQ 0XUSK\ DQG 7LPEDO and references therein). 7KHORZHVWLQÀRZ\HDURQUHFRUG±WRWDODQQXDO0XUUD\5LYHUV\VWHPLQÀRZ GXULQJZDVPLOP3DSSUR[LPDWHO\SHUFHQWEHORZWKHSUHYLRXV UHFRUGPLQLPXP6XFKDQXQSUHFHGHQWHGGU\\HDUDOPRVWFRPSOHWHO\H[KDXVWHG the Murray River’s main drought storage, Dartmouth Dam. This has resulted in WRGD\¶V VLWXDWLRQ RI DOORFDWLRQV EHLQJ DOPRVW HQWLUHO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ LQÀRZV $W WKHEHJLQQLQJRI-XO\'DUWPRXWK'DPZDVDWDSSUR[LPDWHO\SHUFHQWRI FDSDFLW\GHVSLWHVHYHUDO\HDUVRIYHU\GU\FRQGLWLRQV$WWKHHQGRI-XQHLW ZDVDWDSSUR[LPDWHO\SHUFHQWRIFDSDFLW\6XFKXVHRI'DUWPRXWK'DPLVD measure of last resort under extreme dry conditions. Even if Murray River LQÀRZVUHWXUQWRORQJWHUPDYHUDJHXQGHUH[LVWLQJDOORFDWLRQSROLF\LWZLOOWDNH several years for Dartmouth Dam storage levels to recover. Two consecutive very dry years ± IROORZLQJ WKH GULHVW \HDU RQ UHFRUGZDVDOVRDYHU\GU\\HDU1HYHUEHIRUHLQWKHKLVWRULFDOUHFRUG has an extreme dry year been followed by another very dry year. Previously, the GULHVW\HDUVRQUHFRUG±DQG±ZHUHIROORZHGE\VLJQL¿FDQWO\ ZHWWHU \HDUV PLOP3 PLOP3 DQG PLOP3 of Murray 6\VWHPLQÀRZUHVSHFWLYHO\

Modern agriculture under stress 43 30,000

Annual inflow (mil m3)

25,000 Long-term average inflow (8,900 mil m3/yr)

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

4,900 mil m3/yr

5,600 mil m3/yr 3,800 mil m3/yr

Average inflows during drought periods 0 1892 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 Year

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/RQJWHUPDYHUDJHIDUPSUR¿W (AUD million)

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144

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Modern agriculture under stress ZHWVHDVRQ7UDQVSDUHQWUXOHVZLOOEHUHTXLUHGWRGHWHUPLQHVWRUDJHHYDSRUDWLRQ losses for carry-over and whether irrigators forfeit their carried-over water as VWRUDJHOHYHOVLQFUHDVHDQGGDPVSLOOLQJLVOLNHO\ Ongoing drought conditions have exacerbated existing environmental deterioUDWLRQ LQ WKH %DVLQ 9LUWXDOO\ QR VLJQL¿FDQW ÀRRGSODLQ LQXQGDWLRQ KDV RFFXUUHG VLQFHZKLFKVLJQL¿FDQWO\H[FHHGVWKHQDWXUDOLQWHUYDOEHWZHHQÀRRGHYHQWV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ VHYHQ \HDUV 7KH 0'%& FRQGXFWHG FULWLFDO HQYLURQPHQWDO ZDWHULQJWRSUHVHUYHGURXJKWUHIXJLDGXULQJ+RZHYHUWKHVHDFWLRQVGR QRWVXEVWLWXWHDZDWHUVKDULQJUHJLPHWKDWEDODQFHVHQYLURQPHQWDODQGFRQVXPSWLYHZDWHUUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGVKDUHVWKHLPSDFWRIUHGXFHGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\PRUH equitably. The fundamental water sharing arrangements in the MDB Agreement have not been changed since 1914. These arrangements, including minimum monthly ÀRZYROXPHVWR6RXWK$XVWUDOLDKDYHEHHQWHPSRUDULO\UHSODFHGZLWK³VSHFLDO´ arrangements that more equitably share water between states in extreme dry conGLWLRQV7KH³VSHFLDO´ZDWHUVKDULQJDUUDQJHPHQWVKDYHEHHQLQSODFHVLQFH DQGDUHOLNHO\WRUHPDLQLQSODFHXQWLODWOHDVWPLG,PSOHPHQWLQJSHUPDnent changes to the States’ water sharing arrangements may have considerable consequences for water entitlement holders, environmental water management DUUDQJHPHQWVDQGULYHURSHUDWLRQV+LVWRULFDOO\FKDQJHVWRWKH0'%$JUHHPHQW have required several years of negotiations to achieve unanimous agreement.

Conclusion and policy implications ,WLVHYLGHQWWKDWWKH0'%PD\QRWQHHGWRZDLWXQWLOWRH[SHULHQFHVHYHUH LPSDFWV RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH +RZHYHU DJULFXOWXUDO SUR¿W DQG SURGXFWLRQ ¿JXUHV indicate that such conditions will not necessarily result in a dramatic reduction in DJULFXOWXUDORXWSXW7KLVFKDSWHUKDVGHVFULEHGQXPHURXVDGDSWLYHPHDVXUHVWKDW KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR VHYHUH ZDWHU VKRUWDJH 3XEOLF DQG SULYDWH FDUU\RYHU VSHFLDO ZDWHUVKDULQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV DQG GURXJKW FRQWLQJHQF\ PHDVXUHVDUH³VKRUWWHUP´VWUDWHJLHVKDYHEHHQVXFFHVVIXOO\LPSOHPHQWHGGXULQJWKLV YHU\GU\SHULRG+RZHYHUWKHFKDOOHQJHVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHQHFHVVLWDWHDSROLF\ framework which accommodates wet and dry conditions. The “short-term” stratHJLHV WKDW KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG FDQQRW EH FDUULHG IRUZDUG DV DQ LQFUHPHQWDO DGMXVWPHQWWRWKHLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH$IXQGDPHQWDOVKLIWLVUHTXLUHGLQD SROLF\ IUDPHZRUN WKDW HVWDEOLVKHV ZDWHUVKDULQJ DUUDQJHPHQWV IRU FRQVXPSWLRQ DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQRYHUDUDQJHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHSRVVLELOLWLHVIRUWKH long term.

Notes 7KHHQWLWOHPHQWKROGHUUHFHLYHVDQDQQXDODOORFDWLRQRQDYHUDJHRISHUFHQWRIWKH entitlement’s stated volume. 7KH0'%&0LQLVWHULDO&RXQFLO:DWHU/DQGDQG&RQVHUYDWLRQ0LQLVWHUVIURP%DVLQ MXULVGLFWLRQV KDYH WKH SRZHU WR GLUHFW WKH 0'%& WR SHUIRUP DGGLWLRQDO IXQFWLRQV ZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKH$JUHHPHQW

W. Craik and J. Cleaver $VVHWVDUHSK\VLFDOO\UHYDOXHGRQDWULHQQLDOEDVLVEDVHGRQGHSUHFLDWHGUHSODFHPHQW cost. There is a director valuation in the intervening years. ,QWKH0'%&FRQGXFWHGDQGAudit of Water Use in the Murray-Darling Basin ZKLFKUHYHDOHGWKDWRQO\SHUFHQWRIHQWLWOHPHQWVZHUHDFWLYDWHG 7KH0'%&KDVLGHQWL¿HGDKLJKFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQORZLQÀRZVGXULQJWKHDXWXPQ PRQWKVDQGDEHORZDYHUDJHDQQXDOLQÀRZV 7KHPLQLPXPPRQWKO\ÀRZVZHUHGHPDQGHGE\6RXWK$XVWUDOLDZKLFKYLHZHGULYHU QDYLJDWDELOLW\DVWKHKLJKHVWSULRULW\ZDWHUXVHGXULQJWKDWSHULRG6LQFHULYHUQDYLJDWDELOLW\LVQRORQJHUDSULRULW\6RXWK$XVWUDOLDQRZDOORFDWHVZDWHUIURPLWVPRQWKO\ ÀRZHQWLWOHPHQWWRLUULJDWRUV 6RPHQDWXUDOODNHVDQGZHWODQGVKDYHDQDUWL¿FLDOO\KLJKZDWHUOHYHOPDLQWDLQHGE\D GRZQVWUHDPULYHUUHJXODWLRQVWUXFWXUH(YDSRUDWLYHORVVHVIURPWKHVHODNHVDQGZHWODQGVDUHUHSODFHGE\ULYHUÀRZV$QXPEHURIWKHVHZHWODQGVKDYHEHHQGLVFRQQHFWHG IURPWKHPDLQ0XUUD\VWHPWKHUHE\UHGXFLQJRYHUDOOHYDSRUDWLYHORVVHV /RZHULQJ WKH ZDWHU OHYHO DW VRPH ZHLUV FDQ FDSWXUH XQUHJXODWHG WULEXWDU\ LQÀRZV ,QÀRZVIURPWKH2YHQ5LYHUPD\WULJJHUPLQRUÀRRGLQJHYHQLQGU\\HDUVLQDFRQVWULFWHGUHDFKRIWKH0XUUD\NPGRZQVWUHDPRIWKH+XPH'DPFDOOHGWKH%DUPDK &KRNH+HUHWKH0XUUD\FKDQQHOFDSDFLW\GURSVIURPRYHUPLOP3GD\WRPLOP3/ GD\:KHUHWKHSRRORIZDWHUFUHDWHGE\WKHZHLULVXVHGWRGLUHFWZDWHULQWRDQLUULJDWLRQFKDQQHORUIRUUHFUHDWLRQDOSXUSRVHVWKHLPSDFWWKDWWKHVHVWUDWHJLHVKDYHRQULYHU XVHUVPXVWEHEDODQFHGDJDLQVWWKHSRWHQWLDOZDWHUVDYLQJV 'XULQJ YHU\ GU\ SHULRGV ZKHQ WULEXWDU\ LQÀRZV DUH YHU\ ORZ DOO GHPDQGV PXVW EH PHW E\ UHOHDVHV IURP WKH KHDGZDWHU VWRUDJHV 7KH XQSUHFHGHQWHG GU\ FRQGLWLRQV UHTXLUHG FKDQJHV WR KLVWRULFDO ULYHU RSHUDWLRQ VWUDWHJLHV LQ RUGHU WR PLQLPL]H ORVVHV and maximize water availability. 7KHFDUULHGRYHUZDVQRWDFWXDOO\ZLWKKHOGLQVWRUDJHLWZDVµERUURZHG¶IURPIXWXUH LQÀRZV $OO0XUUD\6\VWHPLUULJDWRUVDUHQRZDOORZHGWRFDUU\RYHUSDUWRIWKHLUDOORFDWLRQ$ OLPLWLVLPSRVHGVXFKWKDWWKHWRWDOFDUU\RYHUDQGIROORZLQJ\HDU¶VDOORFDWLRQFDQQRW H[FHHGSHUFHQWRIWKHLUULJDWRU¶VHQWLWOHPHQW,UULJDWRUVGRQRWLQGLYLGXDOO\IRUIHLW WKHLUFRPSRQHQWRIVWRUDJHORVVHVVLQFHWKHWRWDOYROXPHRIFDUU\RYHULVVPDOODQGWKH PDUJLQDODGGLWLRQDOHYDSRUDWLRQLVQHJOLJLEOH 7KHWRWDOKDUYHVWH[FHHGHGPLOOLRQWRQQHVHDFK\HDUEHWZHHQDQG$XVWUDOLDQ:LQHDQG%UDQG\&RUSRUDWLRQ 13 The ABARE general equilibrium model of the Australian economy is called Ausregion. The version of Ausregion used in this analysis was designed to examine DJULFXOWXUDOLPSDFWVLQGHWDLODQGLQFOXGHVHLJKWHHQDJULFXOWXUDOFRPPRGLWLHVDQGIRXU UHODWHGSURFHVVLQJHFRQRPLHV $SSUR[LPDWHO\ PLOP3 of River Murray allocation water was carried-over from WRIURPDWRWDORIPLOP3 of irrigation entitlements.

References $SSHOV ' )U\ - 'Z\HU * DQG 3HWHUVRQ ' Water Trade in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin 7KH WK %LHQQLDO 5HJLRQDO 0RGHOOLQJ :RUNVKRS 6HSWHPEHU ±0HOERXUQHRQOLQHDYDLODEOHDWZZZPRQDVKHGXDXSROLF\UHJLRQDODSSHOSDS SGI>DFFHVVHG$SULO@ $XVWUDOLDQ :LQH DQG %UDQG\ &RUSRUDWLRQ Australian Wine Sector at a Glance, $GHODLGHRQOLQHDYDLODEOHDWZZZZLQHDXVWUDOLDFRPDQGZZZDZEFFRPDXZLQHIDFWVGDWDIUHHDVS"VXEFDWLG >DFFHVVHG)HEUXDU\@ %20 D Murray-Darling Rainfall Deciles: 1 February 2006 – 31 January 2007, $XVWUDOLDQ%XUHDXRI0HWHRURORJ\&DQEHUUDRQOLQHXVLQJGDWDRSWLRQVDYDLODEOHYLD ZZZERPJRYDXMVSDZDSUDLQLQGH[MVS>DFFHVVHG2FWREHU@

Modern agriculture under stress 49 %20 E Murray-Darling Basin Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly: 1910 – 2007, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, online, available at: www. bom.gov.au/cgiELQVLORUHJFOLBFKJWLPHVHULHVFJL"YDULDEOH WPHDQ UHJLRQ PGE VHDVRQ >DFFHVVHG 2FWREHU@ %URZQ $ 'UXP ) +DVHOWLQH & DQG /DZUHQFH / Australian Crop Report: February 2007, Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics, Canberra, RQOLQH DYDLODEOH DW ZZZDEDUHFRQRPLFVFRPSXEOLFDWLRQVBKWPOFU FUBFUBIHE SGI>DFFHVVHG$SULO@ &DL:DQG&RZDQ7 (YLGHQFHRILPSDFWVIURPULVLQJWHPSHUDWXUHRQLQÀRZVWR the Murray-Darling Basin, Geophysical Research Letters,/ &ODUN 6 8QFKDUWHG ZDWHUV &KDSWHU LQ 'DQLHO &RQQHOO HG Divided Power, Co-operative Solutions&DQEHUUD0XUUD\'DUOLQJ%DVLQ&RPPLVVLRQSS± )DXONQHU$DQG6WDSOHWRQ- *UDSHYLQHVXJJHVWVTXDOLW\DQGTXDQWLW\The Australian,0DUFKS *RHVK7+RQH6+D¿$7KRUSH6/DZVRQ.3DJH6+XJKHV1DQG*RGGD\ 3 0XUUD\'DUOLQJ%DVLQ±HFRQRPLFLPSOLFDWLRQVRIZDWHUVFDUFLW\Australian Commodities – March Quarter 08.1 $QGUHZ :ULJKW HG &DQEHUUD 7KH $XVWUDOLDQ %XUHDXRI$JULFXOWXUDODQG5HVRXUFH(FRQRPLFVSS± 3LQN % :DWHU DQG WKH 0XUUD\'DUOLQJ %DVLQ ± $ 6WDWLVWLFDO 3UR¿OH Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, online, available at: www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ ausstats/ VXEVFULEHUQVI&(')'($)%&$$$)LOHB ±WR±SGI>DFFHVVHG2FWREHU@ 0LOOV 6 Maintaining Production when Water is Scarce, Australian Bureau of $JULFXOWXUH DQG 5HVRXUFH (FRQRPLFV 2XWORRN &RQIHUHQFH &DQEHUUD RQOLQH DYDLODEOH DW ZZZDEDUHJRYDXLQWHUDFWLYH2XWORRN¿OHVGD\B 0LOOVB,UULJDWHG$J SGI>DFFHVVHG$SULO@ 0XUSK\ %) DQG 7LPEDO % $ UHYLHZ RI UHFHQW FOLPDWH YDULDELOLW\ DQG FOLPDWH change in southeastern Australia, International Journal of Climatology ± 9LFWRULDQ*RYHUQPHQW±'HSDUWPHQWRI6XVWDLQDELOLW\DQG(QYLURQPHQW Sustainable Water Strategy: Northern Region Discussion Paper, Melbourne. Also available online, DYDLODEOHDWZZZRXUZDWHUYLFJRYDXSURJUDPVVZVQRUWKHUQGLVFXVVLRQSDSHU

4

Integrated watershed management Towards sustainable solutions in Africa Akissa Bahri, Hilmy Sally, Matthew McCartney, Regassa Namara, Seleshi Bekele Awulachew, Barbara van Koppen, and Daan van Rooijen

Introduction Water is a critical input in agricultural growth and pivotal in agrarian livelihoods. However, most sub-Saharan African countries are faced with economic ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ ODFNLQJ WKH KXPDQ ¿QDQFLDO RU LQVWLWXWLRQDO FDSLWDO WR DGHquately develop and use their water resources. Underinvestment in water infrastructure, including provision for maintenance of existing facilities, is often compounded by poor governance and ineffective institutions, especially in poorer countries. A study by the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CA) (2007) points out that improving land and water productivity is a critical contributing factor to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with regard to poverty, hunger, and environmental sustainability. The potential contribution of integrated land and water resources management to reduce poverty and food insecurity holds particularly true for semi-arid Africa, where more than 80 percent of rural livelihoods depend on land and water resources. The New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has called for a 6 percent annual growth in agricultural output if the continent is to achieve food security by 2015. Furthermore, the World Bank and other development organizations recognize broad-based agricultural development as the engine of economic growth (FAO 2006a; IFAD 2007; World Bank 2008). Fortunately, renewed and vigorous responses to water scarcity, including investments to develop water infrastructure, intensifying agricultural production and improving its productivity, together with the associated institutional reforms, are increasingly driving Africa’s water agenda. Innovative methods for managing land and water are therefore crucial in the face of growing economic and physical scarcity of water, compounded by rising costs of new developments, climate variability and climate change, increased prices of food and energy, and the imperatives to respect critical social considerations and ecoloJLFDO IXQFWLRQV WR VXVWDLQ VXFK GHYHORSPHQWV 7KLV FKDSWHU ¿UVW SUHVHQWV WKH land, water, and livelihoods challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa; it then develops the trends and challenges associated with seeking sustainable solutions to integrated watershed management, illustrated by selected examples of

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collaborative, interdisciplinary research carried out to support decision making regarding integrated land and water resources management. Finally, some policy implications are proposed to accompany implementation of some of the lessons learned.

Land, water, and livelihoods challenges in sub-Saharan Africa Overview Water scarcity, poverty, land degradation, low agricultural productivity, poor KHDOWKFDUH IDFLOLWLHV ZDWHU TXDOLW\ HQGHPLF GURXJKWV DQG ÀRRGV DQG WUDQVERXQGDU\FRQÀLFWVLQZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWSRVHVHULRXVGHYHORSPHQWFKDOOHQJHVLQ sub-Saharan Africa. This region is also the poorest in the world (40–60 percent of sub-Saharan Africa population is below $1/day) – and getting poorer (NEPAD 2003), a consequence of population growth outstripping the growth of both overall and agricultural GDP (World Bank 2007). Sub-Saharan Africa’s population is predominantly rural (70 percent), and 33 percent of its people are undernourished with a constant low average calorie intake per person of around 2,000 kcal/p/d. Between 40 and 50 percent of the population has no access to safe drinking water and adequate sanitation, and very high rates of infant mortality, malaria, diarrhea, HIV/AIDS, and child malnutrition remain a major concern. Seventy-seven percent of the human population lives in the 63 transboundary river basins in Africa, which contain 93 percent of the total water, and cover 61 percent of the surface area. This implies very high water interdependence, accounting for the fact that integrated planning and management of international river basins has seldom proved straightforward in Africa. Developing these basins requires agreements, institutions, information sharing, and human resources (Wright et al. 2003). Rainfall variability and water infrastructure Africa has very high spatial and temporal variability in rainfall as compared to other continents (FAO 2003; UN Millennium Project 2005; Walling 1996; :RUOG %DQN 7KH FRHI¿FLHQW RI YDULDWLRQ LQ DQQXDO UDLQIDOO UDQJHV IURP 200 percent in desert areas to 40 percent in semi-arid areas, and from 5 to 31 percent even in humid areas (Africa Water Task Force 2002). In several African countries, there is a strong correlation between GDP growth and the country’s KLJKO\HUUDWLFUDLQIDOO)RUH[DPSOHWKHÀRRGVKDYHFRVW.HQ\DDERXW ELOOLRQ86'*UH\DQG6DGRII DQGUHFXUUHQWGURXJKWDQGÀRRGPDGHPLOlions of people in East African dependent on food aid. The amount of water withdrawn in Africa for agriculture (85 percent), water supply (9 percent), and industry (6 percent) amounts to only 3.8 percent of LQWHUQDO UHQHZDEOH ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV D UHÀHFWLRQ RI WKH ORZ OHYHO RI ZDWHU

52 A. Bahri et al. resources development, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Per-capita water withdrawal in sub-Saharan Africa is the lowest of any region in the world, at just one-fourth of the global average. Africa also has the lowest levels of per-capita storage (Sadoff and Grey 2002); thereby highlighting the fact that provision of storage infrastructure should constitute a vital element of the water development agenda in sub-Saharan Africa. Water infrastructure is needed for providing services to urban, industrial, irrigated, and rural areas, and to cover all aspects of water resource development – ranging from storage (rainwater harvesting systems, dams, and ponds) to abstraction, conveyance, distribution, sanitation, to reuse/recycling, and disposal. Development of hydropower, especially when FRPELQHG ZLWK RWKHU VHFWRUV VXFK DV LUULJDWLRQ ÀRRG SURWHFWLRQ DQG GURXJKW resilience, can enhance returns on investments in water infrastructure. However, in developing infrastructure and modifying hydrological regimes, great care is needed to protect the interests of the poorest and most vulnerable in society whose well-being is often intimately linked to the natural resources and services provided by aquatic ecosystems. The potential negative environmental and social impacts of large capital-intensive schemes are well documented but currently too often neglected in planning. Agricultural water management Agriculture, which provides 60 percent of all employment, constitutes the backbone of most African economies. In most countries, it is still the largest contributor to GDP; the biggest source of foreign exchange, accounting for about 40 percent of the continent’s hard currency earnings; and the main generator of savings and tax revenues. Agriculture thus remains crucial for economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security in most African countries (NEPAD 2003). But agricultural productivity is low and stagnant in sub-Saharan Africa. SubSaharan Africa is the only region in which per-capita food production has fallen over the past 40 years. More than 90 percent of food crops in sub-Saharan Africa are grown under rain-fed conditions, which renders its agriculture vulnerable to rainfall variability and, in turn, affects the livelihoods of the poor and also the national economy. At the same time, sub-Saharan Africa has a large untapped potential of irrigation. FAO (2006b) has reported that only a small share of its potentially irrigable area of 39.4 million hectares has been developed. Overall, 183 million hectares of area are under cultivation in Africa, of which 5 percent or about 9 million hectares is under water management, and 7 million hectares are equipped for full or partial irrigation. Only about 70 percent (5 million hectares) of the equipped area is operational (World Bank 2007). The current phenomenon of rising food and energy prices should also lead us to rethink approaches to agricultural land and water management in sub-Saharan Africa. While its agricultural growth in the past has been mainly achieved through area expansion and provision of irrigation facilities (the use of “blue”1 water), there is growing realization that the reliability of agricultural water supply can also be assured by improving land and water management on rain-fed

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areas (i.e. by harnessing more “green” water) (Falkenmark and Rockström 2008). Low-cost technologies, such as rainwater harvesting and soil moisture conservation, can help stabilize and increase crop yields and farmer incomes in rain-fed agriculture by encouraging hitherto risk-averse farmers to invest in inputs (organic and mineral fertilizers, traditional and locally developed improved varieties) and adopt improved management practices. Promoting awareness about and access to such technologies can also help unlock the potential of smallholder farming and uplift rural livelihoods. In this regard, it is worthwhile highlighting that in sub-Saharan Africa, women are in charge of up to 80 percent of food production (FAO 2003). More than elsewhere in the world, gender is central for equity and productivity in agriculture and agricultural water management. However, women farmers often remain excluded from public support, even in areas where women make the majority of farm decisions. Women’s rights to the (irrigated) land they cultivate are often secondary, which negatively affects their incentives to invest in higher land productivity (World Bank 2008). Furthermore, many NGOs and enterprises for technology development, dissemination, or sale fail to target women farm decision-makers. Additionally, few women own low-cost and affordable agricultural water management technologies, like treadle pumps. For productivity and equity reasons, it is important that all farm decision-makers, whether men or women, are included in programs of public support and investment. Irrigation development will also have to play a major role if the ambitious NEPAD targets for agricultural growth on the continent are to be met. Irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa has suffered from declining investments over the past two decades, due to results falling short of expectations and disappointing returns. The hydrology and pedology are partly responsible for that, but there was also a popular view that irrigation projects in sub-Saharan Africa are more expensive than elsewhere. However, a recent analysis (Inocencio et al. 2007) of more than 300 irrigation projects worldwide showed that irrigation is not uniquely expensive in Africa. The way water is developed and managed has social, economic, and environmental consequences. Integrated approaches to the development, management, and use of water resources will help foster a more balanced and inclusive approach to water decision-making that emphasizes social equity, environmental VXVWDLQDELOLW\DORQJZLWKHFRQRPLFHI¿FLHQF\

Integrated approach to watershed management: ideal and reality Historical river basin development in Africa In Africa, the river basin concept goes back to ancient civilizations such as those along the Nile and the Niger that have long supported diverse populations of farmers, herders, crafts people and traders, and that are the cradle of some of the earliest civilizations – the Sudannic and the ancient Egyptians. Indigenous

54 A. Bahri et al. irrigation systems, some based on complex gravity canal irrigation systems, have been developed in Northern Africa, West Africa, in the Nile Valley, and in the (DVW$IULFDQ5LIW9DOOH\LQ.HQ\DDQG7DQ]DQLD$GDPV 7KHPRVWH[WHQVLYHDQGFRPSOH[WUDQVIRUPDWLRQVRIULYHUÀRZVDWLQWHUQDWLRQDOVFDOHLQ$IULFD on record were on the Nile, mainly in Egypt and Sudan. Four decades ago, a few countries like Nigeria, Ghana, and Egypt reactivated the idea of river basin development to restore equitable balance between rural and urban economic development. National and international river basin authorities were established in the 1960s, and their most important products were the construction of dams (Aswan on the Nile, Akosombo on the Volta River, Manantali and Diama on the 6HQHJDO 5LYHU DQG LUULJDWLRQ VFKHPHV *H]LUD LQ 6XGDQ 2I¿FH GX 1LJHU LQ Mali). In some cases, these developments have had some negative impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems (loss of land, endangered livelihoods, social disturbances, KHDOWKULVNVGHFOLQLQJFODP¿VKHU\GRZQVWUHDPRIWKHGDPLQWKHORZHU9ROWDLQ Ghana). McCartney and Sally (2005) argue that past experience shows that construction of large dams without full understanding of the social and environmental consequences can have devastating impacts for the livelihoods of many poor people. Siltation from land degradation, resulting from intensive biomass exploitation in upper watersheds, can lead to storage depletion and to environmental and socio-economic impacts downstream. Degraded watersheds exacerEDWH WKH ULVN RI H[WUHPH HYHQWV GURXJKWV DQG ÀRRGV DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\ ORVV Among other potential negative effects of dams and irrigation schemes is intenVL¿HG WUDQVPLVVLRQ RI PDODULD DQG VFKLVWRVRPLDVLV UHVXOWLQJ IURP FKDQJHV LQ environmental conditions that increase vector abundance. Negative impacts often arise as a result of lack of foresight and because water infrastructures are planned and managed in isolation from other developments occurring in a river basin. The large majority of water users on the continent use water “informally” for both domestic and productive uses. Most central governments lack even basic data about large-scale users, let alone the millions of small-scale users. In rural areas, indigenous natural resource management arrangements around traditional DXWKRULWLHVFRQWLQXHWRKDYHDJUHDWLQÀXHQFHRQODQGWHQXUHEXWDOVRRQWKHZD\ in which: a b c G

individuals are authorized to engage in new water uses; groups come together to jointly invest in communal infrastructure like wells, dams or river abstractions; priorities between uses and users are set and enforced during droughts; and SROOXWLRQLVSUHYHQWHGYDQ.RSSHQ et al. 2007).

Trends and challenges of integrated watershed management Historically, water management was equated with the development and operation of water systems and structures, largely for irrigation. From the mid-1990s, water management was placed into the overall context of river basins and to examine

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the interlinking hydrologic, socio-economic, and environmental aspects of water PDQDJHPHQWDWPXOWLSOHVFDOHV,WLVZLGHO\DUJXHGWKDWZDWHUFDQEHHI¿FLHQWO\ managed within a river basin or watershed/catchment2 area, and that this approach helps to achieve a balance between resource use and protection (Ashton 1999). Watershed management and river basin management concepts have evolved in parallel. Watershed management has evolved from a narrow soil and water conservation-focused perspective, aiming at stopping land degradation, improving agriculture and natural resources management, and securing downstream water-related services, towards a more holistic approach that explicitly recognizes the importance of the human element and the interconnection of ecosystems (CA 2007). The watershed area became the appropriate spatial integrator unit for managing land and water resources, and to take into account the upstream-downstream relationships. A variant of the concept emerged in the 1990s as “participatory integrated watershed management,” with a more complex mix of strategic concerns (German et al. 2006), and aimed at promoting sustainable development of water and land resources, building partnerships with communities on the ground in a search for equitable and environmentally sustainable change. Several closely related concepts have been proposed to develop and manage natural resources. These include Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM), Integrated Natural Resources Management (INRM), Integrated Watershed Management, and IntegUDWHG &DWFKPHQW 0DQDJHPHQW ,&0 ,:50 LV GH¿QHG E\ WKH *OREDO :DWHU Partnership (GWP-TAC 2000) as “a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land, and related resources in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.”3 IWRM and IRBM are complementary and interrelated concepts, but they differ in the sense that some policy decisions can be taken only at the national level (Jønch-Clausen 2004). Clarifying in detail the similarities and differences among these concepts is beyond the scope of this chapter. However, these concepts have the following common features: they are holistic, integrated, and participatory in their approaches; and they are based on hydrological and bio-geophysical units rather than politico-administrative units with the overarching goal of developing and managing different sources of water – rainwater, surface water, underground ZDWHUUHWXUQÀRZVUXQRIIGUDLQDJHZDVWHZDWHU WRVHUYHWKHQHHGVRIPXOWLSOH users for multiple purposes (agriculture, industry, drinking water, sanitation, SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQQDYLJDWLRQÀRRGSURWHFWLRQDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQW Implementation of these approaches is still a challenge, especially with regard to the institutional arrangements that have to be put in place at different scales, and the need for coordination across scales and institutions. A key requirement for success is the existence of institutions that accept the principles of integrated natural resources management taking into account the multiple objectives of the society. The challenge is also to achieve a balance between values, such as HFRQRPLF EHQH¿W HTXLW\ VXVWDLQDELOLW\ DQG SXEOLF SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ZKHQ LQ SUDFtice there are often trade-offs among them.

56 A. Bahri et al. Integrated watershed management in Africa At present, almost all African countries and more particularly those with large inland drainage systems have agreed to engage in watershed management and in IWRM, i.e. to establish river/lake basin development units as multipurpose use systems and to manage their water resources at the basin level rather than within the administrative and political boundaries. Relevant actors and stakeholders will be involved in the planning, development, and management of water-related activities through various partnership arrangements among riparian countries in the continent’s major river basins, and among local communities within the basins and watersheds. Some countries, such as Tunisia, have moved to a statewide approach, in some cases after going through a river basin development and management stage. Despite the formal commitments by many countries to the ideas and principles of sustainable development after the 2002 World Summit, the implementation of policies and strategies that manage water resources for people, while PDLQWDLQLQJIXQFWLRQLQJHFRV\VWHPVKDYHEHHQFRQIURQWHGZLWKVHYHUDOGLI¿FXOWies, particularly in water-stressed basins, or when administrative or political boundaries differ from the watershed limits, or when there are competing interests. The issue of how much water should be allocated to agriculture and other uses, and how much should remain for environmental uses is still a subject of debate and should probably be resolved on a basin by basin basis (Molden et al. 2007). According to AfDB (2007), eight of the continent’s nine largest international EDVLQV KDYH EDVLQ DXWKRULWLHV WKDW KDYH EHHQ UDWL¿HG E\ WKH VWDWHV VKDULQJ WKH river basin. However, the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS) is among the very few effective international basin organizations in Africa, most of WKHRWKHUVEHLQJ³EHVHWE\EXUHDXFUDWLFLQHI¿FLHQFLHVDQG¿QDQFLDODQGFDSDFLW\ constraints” (AfDB 2007). In addition, as they are not always able to keep up with science-based water management innovations, basin authorities lack key techniques for water allocation, development, and distribution. Furthermore, issues of treaties/agreements regarding the use of international waters remain largely unresolved, and national interests tend to prevail over shared interests. Differences in countries’ needs and development stages should also be considered, such as in the case of the Incomati River which is shared among South Africa, Swaziland, and Mozambique. Some countries are focused on how to attain the MDGs (reducing poverty, hunger, diseases, and environmental degradation, including halving the number of people without access to water and sanitation) while others can afford to have a stronger focus on environmental protection and restoration. The question of how an integrated watershed managePHQW FDQ KHOS UHFRQFLOH GLI¿FXOW WUDGHRIIV LQ WKH DFKLHYHPHQWV RI WKHVH JRDOV has still to be worked out (Jønch-Clausen 2004). The Nile River Basin is a good H[DPSOHLQZKLFKVKDUHGFRPPRQUHVRXUFHVFDQRQO\EHKDUQHVVHGWREHQH¿WDOO stakeholders and interested parties through effective transnational cooperation.

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Case studies The examples presented hereafter illustrate the approaches adopted and the tools XVHG LQ FDUU\LQJ RXW LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ FROODERUDWLYH ZRUN DFURVV VFDOHV ¿HOG watershed, basin, and transboundary), involving researchers, basin or watershed organizations, farmers’ organizations, local communities, NGOs, and governPHQWDJHQFLHV7KH¿UVWFDVHVWXG\DQDO\]HVWUDGHRIIVEHWZHHQZDWHUDOORFDWLRQV to different sectors in determining river basin water management plans, taking into account customary arrangements and promoting stakeholder dialogue in the Great Ruaha River in Tanzania. The second example examines up- and downstream implications of rural-urban watersheds development in two cities in subSaharan Africa: Accra and Addis Ababa. The third case study assesses the results of attempts made to create institutions for developing and managing an international transboundary river, using the Nile Basin as an example. Balancing inter-sectoral water demands In situations of growing water stress, there is a need to improve water resources PDQDJHPHQW WR VHFXUH DQG PD[LPL]H WKH EHQH¿WV IURP ZDWHU WR GLIIHUHQW XVHUV LQFOXGLQJWKRVHGHSHQGHQWRQHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHV:HWODQGVIXO¿OOFULWLFDOHFRORgical functions and also make important contributions to sustaining rural livelihoods in Africa through a wide variety of uses, such as crop production, livestock rearing, domestic water use, brick making, and harvesting plants for crafts and PHGLFLQDO SXUSRVHV .DVKDLJLOL 0DNLQJ RSWLPXP XVH RI WKHLU SURGXFWLYH potential while minimizing adverse ecological effects, requires management strategies based on an understanding of a range of issues such as hydrology, climatic variability, availability of labor and other inputs, customary arrangements for land and water access, and the existence of a sound policy and institutional framework. The contribution of multidisciplinary research to support decision makers to develop strategies and intervention packages that strike a balance between production and protection will be illustrated through the following example of the 8VDQJXZHWODQGORFDWHGLQWKH5X¿ML%DVLQLQ7DQ]DQLD Tanzania, in compliance with current widely accepted notions of best practice, and in common with many other African countries, has focused largely on the development of more integrated watershed-wide approaches to water management. The New National Water Policy (MWLD 2002) provides a framework for integrated management of water resources. Adopting the river basin as the principal unit for management and regulation, it is based on the Dublin Principles, with the environment as the second priority in allocating water, behind basic human needs. It embraces concepts such as full-cost recovery, water rights and water fees, and stakeholder participation in water resources management 0XWD\REDYDQ.RSSHQ et al. 2004). 7KH5X¿ML%DVLQLVRQHRIWKUHHEDVLQVLQ7DQ]DQLDIRUZKLFKWKHQHZSROLF\ is being pilot tested. The Great Ruaha River (Figure 4.1), a major tributary of the 5X¿ML LV RQH RI 7DQ]DQLD¶V PRVW LPSRUWDQW ZDWHUZD\V 7KH ZDWHUVKHG

58 A. Bahri et al.

Figure 4.1 Map of the Great Ruaha River.

(83,979 km2) contains one of the country’s main rice-growing areas, 50 percent of the country’s installed hydropower capacity, as well as an important National Park and wetlands. Since the mid-1990s, the Great Ruaha River, which in the SDVW ZDV SHUHQQLDO KDV FHDVHG ÀRZLQJ LQ WKH GU\ VHDVRQ HYHU\ \HDU 7KLV KDV occurred because water levels in a large wetland, located on the Usangu Plain (near the headwaters of the river) have dropped below a critical level and outÀRZV IURP WKH ZHWODQG KDYH FHDVHG 7KLV GU\LQJ LV ODUJHO\ D FRQVHTXHQFH RI diversions to rice irrigation upstream of the wetland. It is estimated that up to 95 SHUFHQWRIKRXVHKROGVOLYLQJRQWKH8VDQJX3ODLQVEHQH¿WLQDGLUHFWZD\IURP the wetlands. Upstream water withdrawals are causing considerable environmental degradation of both the wetlands on the Usangu Plain and the downstream National Park. Between 1970 and 2004, irrigation on the Usangu Plain, increased from 10,000 ha to 45,000 ha. Over a six-year period (2002–2007), a multidisciplinary study was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the new water management being implemented LQWKH5X¿MLDQGVSHFL¿FDOO\WKH*UHDW5XDKD%DVLQ7KHVWXG\ZDVXQGHUWDNHQ by a team of both Tanzanian and international scientists and comprised analyses of technical, economic, institutional, and social aspects of water management in WKHEDVLQ.H\FRPSRQHQWVRIWKHVWXG\ZHUHWRGHWHUPLQH

Integrated watershed management 3 4 5

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WKHÀRZUHTXLUHPHQWVGRZQVWUHDPRIWKH8VDQJXZHWODQGDQGKRZPXFK ZDWHUQHHGVWRÀRZLQWRWKHZHWODQGWRPDLQWDLQWKLVÀRZ WKH VFRSH IRU LPSURYLQJ LUULJDWLRQ HI¿FLHQF\ DQG SURGXFWLYLW\ LQ RUGHU WR UHOHDVHVXI¿FLHQWZDWHUIRUGRZQVWUHDPXVHV the role that economic valuation of different water uses should play in determining water allocation in the watershed; if the formal water management systems being introduced would be effective LQUHWXUQLQJWKH*UHDW5XDKD5LYHUWR\HDUURXQGÀRZDQG how different types of decision-support systems could be best used to improve water management (McCartney et al. 2007).

Utilizing hydrological and water resource models, the study found that HQYLURQPHQWDO ÀRZ UHTXLUHPHQWV WKURXJK WKH *UHDW 5XDKD 1DWLRQDO 3DUN (located downstream of the wetland) require an average annual allocation of 635 Mm3 (equivalent to 22 percent of the mean annual runoff) and an absolute PLQLPXPGU\VHDVRQÀRZRIP3V.DVKDLJLOL et al. 2007). To maintain the GU\VHDVRQÀRZVUHTXLUHVDSHUFHQWUHGXFWLRQLQFXUUHQWGU\VHDVRQDEVWUDFtions, from 4.25 m3/s to 1.50 m3V $OWKRXJK WKHUH LV VLJQL¿FDQW SRWHQWLDO WR LQFUHDVHZDWHUXVHHI¿FLHQF\LQWKHLUULJDWLRQVFKHPHVZKLFKZRXOGIUHHZDWHU IRU WKH ZHWODQG DQG GRZQVWUHDP ÀRZV FXUUHQW PDQDJHPHQW V\VWHPV DUH largely failing to reduce diversions. Modern irrigation intakes, built since 1996 to improve water control, were rarely utilized as intended and rather than reducing abstractions tended to increase them. Although the introduced water rights and fees system was meant to provide economic incentives to reduce water waste, it was found to be largely ineffective in the absence of ways to monitor and enforce compliance. Some withdrawals were found to be up to twice the legal water rights and, even where water rights were not exceeded, considerable volumes of diverted water were wasted (Mehari et al. 2007; Rajabu et al. 7KLVFRQWUDVWVZLWKH[SHULHQFHLQ6SDLQZKHUHLQUHFHQW\HDUVVLJQL¿FDQW LQFUHDVHV LQ LUULJDWLRQ HI¿FLHQF\ KDYH EHHQ DWWDLQHG WKURXJK LPSURYHG management combined with the application of new technologies, introduced to IXO¿OO (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ UHTXLUHPHQWV DQG IRU HQYLURQPHQWDO UHDVRQV *DUULGR and Iglesias 2008). In the Great Ruaha, average values of water for irrigated paddy were estimated at $0.01 and 0.04/m3 for abstracted and consumed water, respectively. For hydroelectric power, the values were higher ($0.06–0.21/m3 for gross and conVXPHG ZDWHU UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KHVH ¿JXUHV SURYLGH DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLYH value of water use in the two sectors. Consequently, if based simply on criteria RI HFRQRPLF HI¿FLHQF\ ZDWHU ZRXOG EH DOORFDWHG DZD\ IURP LUULJDWLRQ WR WKH downstream hydropower schemes. However, paddy production from the Usangu area alone contributes about 14–24 percent to national production and supports about 30,000 agrarian families in Usangu with average gross income per family RI86SHU\HDU.DGLJL et al. ,QGHFLGLQJDOORFDWLRQVWKHVHEHQH¿WV need to be considered, including equity and pro-poor returns, as well as the implications for national food security.

60 A. Bahri et al. At local levels, efforts have been made to organize water users into WUAs (water users associations). In some places, these have built upon traditional water allocation approaches based on water sharing (i.e. Zamu). As a consequence of improved scheduling (though never a reduction in overall abstractions), this has resulted in improved village-level water management and UHGXFHG LQWUDVFKHPH FRQÀLFWV 'HVSLWH WKH PDQ\ FRPSOH[ SUREOHPV LW LV FOHDU WKDW WKHUH LV VLJQL¿FDQW SROLWLFDO ZLOO DQG GHWHUPLQHG HIIRUWV DUH EHLQJ PDGH WR ¿QGSUDJPDWLFDQGHTXLWDEOHVROXWLRQVWRWKHPDQ\ZDWHUUHODWHGSUREOHPVLQWKH Great Ruaha Basin. The research conducted in the study highlighted many important aspects of water management that are relevant to similar situations of growing competition for water, set against a backdrop of accelerated rural growth in Tanzania and elsewhere in Africa. 7KH¿QGLQJVXQGHUOLQHWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDQDGDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQWDSSURDFK EDVHG RQ VRXQG VFLHQWL¿F XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI ZDWHU XWLOL]DWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH FDWFKment. Enhancing community involvement in water management through, for example, WUAs is necessary. However, currently, the effectiveness of WUAs is OLPLWHG E\ WKH ODFN RI D ZHOOGH¿QHG DXWKRULW\ VWUXFWXUH WKDW FDQ WDNH RYHUDOO UHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUUHVRXUFHXVHDQGGLI¿FXOW\LQIRUPDOHQIRUFHPHQWRIZDWHUUHJulations arising from lack of monitoring. Because of the large size of the basin, there is also limited understanding of downstream water needs. For example, WUAs in the upper part of the basin, primarily engaged in allocating water for irrigation, may not appreciate the differing needs of pastoralists and hydropower requirements. For these reasons, WUAs are currently largely failing to address HQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQV%HQH¿WVKDULQJPHFKDQLVPVPLJKWEHRQHZD\RIFUHDWing methods for farmers to release water to downstream users, including the hydropower plants. For poverty alleviation, consideration should also be given to the promotion of enterprises that use relatively small amounts of water but have relatively high returns (e.g. brick making). 7UDGHRIIVDQGFRQÀLFWEHWZHHQFLWLHVHQYLURQPHQWDQGDJULFXOWXUH Though not immediately evident, cities and urban areas also form an integral part of the watersheds. They are not only subject to the effects of developments DQGSUDFWLFHVRXWVLGHEXWDFWLYLWLHVZLWKLQFDQDOVRLQÀXHQFHZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\ (quantitatively and qualitatively) in other parts of the watershed. Urban population growth and economic development may exacerbate intersectoral competition for water and have effects on drinking water quality, wastewater, and stormwater management. Urban development is changing the quantity and TXDOLW\RIZDWHUÀRZVWKDWH[WHQGEH\RQGWKHXUEDQZDWHUVKHG&LWLHVJHQHUDWH increased volumes of wastewater and other wastes whose disposal has a negative impact on a wider range of ecosystems. Poor sanitation facilities and lack of ZDVWHZDWHUWUHDWPHQWKDYHFUHDWHGZDVWHZDWHUÀRZVRQWRDJULFXOWXUDO¿HOGVDQG into surface water bodies. On the other hand, if properly treated and managed, these wastes may promote different water uses and users across urban-ruralenvironmental gradients. These interactions of cities with non-urban uses and the

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environment are explored through analyses of two cities in sub-Saharan Africa, Accra and Addis Ababa, focusing on three distinct issues: intersectoral competiWLRQ RYHU ZDWHU ZDVWHZDWHULQGXFHG SROOXWLRQ DQG XUEDQÀRRGLQJLQGXFHG health risks. In urban watersheds, competition between urban water demands and those for agriculture and industries is increasing, due to urban expansion and political priority given to cities. Fast growth of cities in sub-Saharan Africa and rises in livelihoods standards are exerting more pressure on water and land resources. With the political and economic centers of gravity located in the cities, urban water use tend to be prioritized over other users and other regions (Molle and Berkoff 2006). Northern Ghana and Burkina Faso stand in competition for water resources with the urbanized society of Southern Ghana (Giesen et al. 2001). The foreseen increases in water use in cities in sub-Saharan Africa will intensify their dependence on water abstracted from rural areas, but it will also put more stress on water DYDLODELOLW\IRUDJULFXOWXUDOXVHDQGPD\DIIHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOÀRZUHTXLUHPHQWV Cities are generating large volumes of wastewater that are a source of health risks and pollute the environment when the scale of treatment is low. The near absence of actual treatment of domestic (5 percent or less in Addis and Accra) and much less industrial wastewater is putting a burden on the environment as well as posing a risk to human health. In Accra, of the total volume of water used (excluding 25 percent physical losses) about 80 percent or 80 Mm3/year returns as wastewater. Another fraction is collected from septic tanks by trucks and dumped into the ocean or released into ponds with possible connections to the ocean. The various pathways of microbiological infection from wastewater to humans are posing a daily risk to many of Accra’s inhabitants (Lunani et al. 2007). Wastewater (raw or mixed with underground or storm water) is being used for irrigating mainly vegetables in Accra and Addis, which entails a health risk to irrigators within and downstream of the cities. In the case of Addis Ababa, heavy metal-polluted river waters from various factories are used to cultivate vegetables that pose serious health hazards to producers and consumers. Untreated or poorly treated domestic wastewater poses health risks to irrigators within and downstream of cities (Weldesilassie et al. 2008; Obuobie et al. 2006). Consumers of raw vegetable crops that are grown in the city (61 percent in Addis and 90 percent in Accra) are exposed to the risk of getting sick as well, when these food items have not been properly disinfected. The Accra and Addis Ababa examples tell us that the way in which cities dispose of their wastewater has a direct impact on both the sustainability of peri-urban farming and the quality of the aquatic environment in and downstream of these cities. 6HDVRQDO ÀRRGV SRVH KHDOWK ULVNV GXH WR WKH PL[WXUH ZLWK ZDVWHZDWHU 7KH construction of roads and buildings in previously unpaved areas is driving a gradual conversion of permeable areas into build-up areas, which will further increase the release of polluted stormwater into the environment in and around urban watersheds. This typical feature of urban development can have a rigorous LPSDFW RQ WKH ZDWHU F\FOH DQG ZDWHU ÀRZV LQWR DJULFXOWXUDO DUHDV DQG WKH environment downstream (van Rooijen et al. 2005).

62 A. Bahri et al. Research on the urban-rural linkages in terms of food, nutrient, and water ÀRZV LV SURYLGLQJ NQRZOHGJH RQ KRZ FLWLHV LQ $IULFD VWDQG PRUH DQG PRUH LQ interaction with their rural hinterland (Awulachew 2007; Drechsel et al. 2007). Since these interactions are fundamental and important for national economies, XUEDQUXUDO EHQH¿WV VKRXOG EH HQODUJHG ZKLOH PLWLJDWLQJ QHJDWLYH LPSDFWV RQ agriculture and environment. Perhaps the biggest opportunity lies in wastewater recycling. Most of the nutrient-rich wastewater volume generated in cities is now lost to the environment and is impairing it, but could instead be reused as an input of water and nutrients for irrigated agriculture. Empowering end-users to “add” their knowledge and perception of progress to the process, as is the case of the SWITCH project, in which local stakeholders are brought together to jointly discuss, learn, and set priorities for improvement of all aspects of urban water in their city may help reaching a more sustainable urban water management. SWITCH represents a network of researchers and practitioners that work directly with civil society through “learning alliances” in each city. This European Union cofunded project, which is carried out in Accra, among nine other global cities, aims to bring about a paradigm shift in urban water management away from existing ad hoc solutions to urban water management and towards a more coherent and integrated approach. In the previous sections we have discussed the ways in which expanding cities in sub-Saharan Africa behave as drivers for the dynamic interactions that exist with agriculture and the environment. Negative side effects from these interactions should be addressed with research and policy development in support of effective integrated urban water management on the ground. The increasing repercussion of water linkages between cities, agriculture and the environment emphasize the importance of WDNLQJDEDVLQSHUVSHFWLYHZKHQDGGUHVVLQJWKHVSHFL¿FQHHGVDQGLVVXHV The Nile – an example of multi-national water management The management of the Nile is unique in Africa for its long history, great techniFDOFRPSOH[LW\DQGLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDOVFDOH7KH¿UVWV\VWHPDWLFPRGHUQDWWHPSWV to understand and make plans about river basin development were on the Nile (Waterbury 1979; Collins 1990). Until the twentieth century, the only major K\GURORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQWV LQ $IULFD ZHUH FRQ¿QHG WR WKH 1LOH 9DOOH\ ,Q VXE 6DKDUDQ $IULFD WKH *H]LUD 6FKHPH LQ 6XGDQ EXLOW LQ KDG EHHQ WKH ¿UVW ODUJHVFDOH LUULJDWLRQ VFKHPH 7KH EDVLQ LV LGHQWL¿HG DV D FULWLFDO UHJLRQ ZKHUH the interconnections among water, food, poverty, international politics, and urbanization are enormous. The basin countries face a multitude of problems that are biophysical, hydrometeorological, socio-economic, socio-political, and institutional in nature and WKDW FRQVWUDLQ GHYHORSPHQW 7KH LQFLGHQFH DQG VLJQL¿FDQFH RI WKHVH SUREOHPV differ between upstream and downstream countries. The upstream of the Nile Basin is characterized by high population pressure, inadequate water infrastructural development, overdependence on rain-fed agriculture as a means of livelihood, low productivity and expansion of agricultural lands into marginal areas,

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such as steep slopes causing deforestation and inducing erosion, civil strife, rampant unemployment, and energy crises. The downstream countries of the Nile Basin also share some of these problems but are further constrained by physical water scarcity, excessive drawdown of groundwater resources, and unsustainable irrigation infrastructure. Problems or actions in the upstream often exacerbate the downstream problems. For instance, poor land use practices in the upstream of the basin enhances erosion and increases the sedimentation load of the Nile water causing silt accumulation in reservoirs. The Atbara and Blue Nile contribute 53 percent of waters and 90 percent of the sediment in the Nile (Tessera 2006). Since 1925, the Senar dam in Sudan lost 660 Mm3 of water (i.e. 70 percent of its original storage capacity) due to sedimentation. Removal of sediments in Sudan’s reservoirs and related irrigation schemes account for half of the operation and maintenance budget (Ahmed 2000; Conway 2000). Thus, there is a need for Nile basin wide cooperation. 6DGRII DQG *UH\ KDYH LGHQWL¿HG IRXU SRVVLEOH FRRSHUDWLRQ W\SHV RQ international rivers ranging from cooperation solely focusing on improving the environmental and ecological conditions of the river to cooperation intended to integrate regional infrastructure, markets, and trade. Whittington et al. (2005) KDYHDWWHPSWHGWRTXDQWLI\WKHEHQH¿WVRIIXOOFRRSHUDWLRQDPRQJWKH1LOH5LYHU riparian countries. They showed that Nile basin-wide cooperative development of hydropower and irrigation system would generate US$4.94 billion annually PRUHWKDQWKHWRWDOHFRQRPLFEHQH¿WVUHDOL]HGIURPWKHVWDWXVTXRFRQGLWLRQVIRU the whole basin (Figure 4.2). Recognizing the importance of the Nile River and the increasing pressure on its use, efforts have been made to create legal instruments for the equitable and sustainable use of the basin’s water. Fifteen bilateral treaties and agreements dated from 1891 to 1993 are available (Adams 2001). However, all of these legal instruments were negotiated on a strictly bilateral basis and the one party to the treaty was always Great Britain, except in the case of the 1959 Nile Water Agreement signed between Egypt and Sudan. The treaties neglect the interests of other riparian countries and therefore many are unrecognized by one or more of the riparian countries. Hence, there was a demand for formulating basin-wide treaties or agreements to facilitate cooperation among riparian countries.

Figure 4.2 Economic value of cooperation: status quo versus full cooperation.

64 A. Bahri et al. In 1999, the World Bank took an active role in promoting cooperation in the Nile basin by helping to establish the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The NBI represents a transitional institutional mechanism, an agreed vision and a basin-wide framework, and a process to facilitate investments in the basin to realize regional socio-economic development. To translate the shared vision into action, the NBI has launched a Strategic Action Program, which includes two complementary components: a basin-wide shared vision program creating a basin-wide enabling environment for sustainable development and subsidiary action programs. There are two Subsidiary Action programs: one for the Eastern Nile region and the other for the Nile equatorial lakes region. The Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) currently includes the countries of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The long-term program objectives of ENSAP are to: D b c d

HQVXUHHI¿FLHQWZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDQGRSWLPDOXVHRIWKHUHVRXUFHVWKURXJK HTXLWDEOHXWLOL]DWLRQDQGQRVLJQL¿FDQWKDUP ensure cooperation and joint action between the Eastern Nile countries seeking win-win goals; target poverty eradication and promote economic integration; and ensure that the ENSAP results in a move from planning to action.

To realize these objectives, at the moment there are many planned and ongoing development projects worth several hundred million dollars (NBI 2008). These projects (as detailed below) address issues such as watershed management, irrigation and drainage, integrated water resources development, hydropower development, power transmission interconnection, water conservation, and institutional strengthening. The watersheds of upstream Nile basin countries, especially those of eastern Nile basin countries, are prone to severe soil erosion, due to anthropogenic factors (Figure 4.3) engendering substantial downstream impacts, including siltation and sedimentation in rivers or reservoirs, decreased hydropower producWLRQGHFUHDVHGLUULJDWLRQHI¿FLHQF\DQGORVVRIFULWLFDODTXDWLFKDELWDWV The watershed management project aims to encourage community participation and extension to promote land and water conservation practices, promote forestation and vegetative land cover (Figure 4.4), promote appropriate crop cultivation and livestock grazing practices, identify and demonstrate technologies for rain harvesting, and promote proper use of agrochemicals to reduce water SROOXWLRQ7KHUHJLRQDOVLJQL¿FDQFHRIWKLVSURMHFWZLOOEHHURVLRQFRQWUROOHDGLQJ to a reduction in the adverse downstream impacts listed above, an overall increase in land productivity, and thereby enhanced food security and poverty reduction. One of the anthropogenic factors contributing to degradation of land resources is the unchecked removal of forests for fuel purposes (Figure 4.5). The regional power trade project launched in May 2003, will substantially reduce the demand for forest-based fuel sources, establish institutional means to coordinate the

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Figure 4.3 A river with a high sediment load a few minutes after torrential rains in Tigray, Ethiopia.

development of regional power markets among the Nile Basin countries and build analytical capacity, and provide technical infrastructure to manage Nile basin resources. The project is expected to enhance individual and institutional capacity to manage and develop basin-wide hydropower resources, and to derive large EHQH¿WVLQEXLOGLQJLQWUDULSDULDQFRRSHUDWLRQWKURXJKFRRUGLQDWHGSRZHUV\VWHP operations. Reliable provision of low-cost electricity is critical for economic development, employment, and poverty alleviation. In all basin countries, except Egypt, development of the power system and access to electricity are

Figure 4.4 Terracing and reforestation to halt erosion in the highlands of Tigray, Ethiopia.

66 A. Bahri et al.

Figure 4.5 A site of extreme land degradation in Eastern Nile.

OLPLWHG6LJQL¿FDQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUSRZHUWUDGHDQGFRRSHUDWLYHGHYHORSPHQW of hydropower and transmission interconnection exist in the eastern Nile countries, namely Ethiopia and Sudan. There is substantial untapped hydropower potential in Ethiopia, while Sudan has thermal capacity. Capturing thermalhydro complementarities in the region could prove cost-effective. Export of thermal power from Sudan to Ethiopia during unfavorable hydrological conditions, and export of hydropower to complement Sudan’s thermal generation is a promising proposition. Access to affordable and reliable electricity supply SURYLGHV VSHFLDOO\ EHQH¿FLDO RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU ZRPHQ ZKR EHDU D GLVSURSRUtionately high burden.

Conclusion and policy implications Integrated watershed management in Africa, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, is a process that is presented with a range of challenges: intersectoral competition for water, dealing with trade-offs related to developmental and economic objectives on one hand, and equity and conservation considerations on the other; integration across scales; and reconciling hydrological boundaries with administrative and political boundaries. Addressing these issues not only requires knowledge, skills, and expertise, but also a political and institutional FOLPDWHFDSDEOHRISURYLGLQJWKHWHFKQLFDO¿QDQFLDODQGRUJDQL]DWLRQDOVXSSRUW to deliver meaningful solutions. Integrated watershed management in sub-Saharan Africa should include a balanced portfolio of measures for managing water scarcity. The portfolio should include interventions meant to:

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b c d

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minimize farmers’ vulnerability and improve food security (water infrastructure development and management, soil and water conservation technologies, inter- and intrabasin water energy transfers); increase the productive use of water in different agro-ecosystems (irrigated, rain-fed, and wetland); enhance the integrated management of urban watersheds and the rural-urban linkages; and identify effective policies, institutional arrangements, and management strategies that both protect vital ecosystem services and reduce poverty at different scales, and that foster cooperation among riparian countries and EHQH¿WVKDULQJIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOULYHUV

Integrated watershed management is very much about decision making in a multiple-use and multiple-user context to improve water productivity and derive RSWLPXP EHQH¿WV IRU DOO UHOHYDQW VWDNHKROGHUV 7KH WKUHH FDVH VWXGLHV KDYH shown how water management needs vary depending on the context and why different pathways have then to be pursued to address these needs. 7KH¿UVWFDVHVWXG\KDVLOOXVWUDWHGWKDWZDWHUZLWKGUDZDOVDUHYLWDOIRUOLYHOLhoods and poverty alleviation, however, managing trade-offs between different ecosystems is necessary. Such trade-offs need to be based on a detailed understanding of the consequences of water management decisions for ecosystem services and their role in supporting livelihoods; such decision making can be enhanced using tools that promote stakeholder dialogue and take into account existing local-level traditional arrangements. The second case illustrates the need for comprehensive understanding of the entire urban water system, including application of an integrated urban watershed management approach that takes into account various levels and modes of interactions, such as watershed spatial scale, upstream-downstream and socioeconomic domains. Innovations and investment interventions should encompass technology, institutional change, and sociological learning. The third case argues that transboundary coordination can foster major winwin opportunities by adopting promising management practices and technologies within the watershed to overcome constraints to up-scaling and ultimately UHVXOW LQ VLJQL¿FDQW SRVLWLYH EHQH¿WV IRU ERWK XSVWUHDP DQG GRZQVWUHDP FRPmunities, reducing win-lose scenarios. Policies for integrated watershed management should aim at: 1 2 3

integrated management of all sectors of the watershed in order to optimize EHQH¿WV integrating rural and urban development; and involving stakeholders in the development and management of the watershed/river basin from the planning to implementation stages.

In conclusion, we offer the following principles to guide sustainable integrated watershed management (in sub-Saharan Africa):

68 A. Bahri et al.

7KH PXOWLSXUSRVH XVH FRQFHSW LQ LQWHJUDWHG ZDWHUVKHG GHYHORSPHQW DQG management may provide the most equitable option on which watershedwide plans may be based. *RYHUQPHQWVH[SHUWVDQGRWKHUVWDNHKROGHUVVKRXOGWKLQNPRUHLQWHUPVRI agricultural water management rather than (separately) about irrigated or rain-fed agriculture. It is necessary to improve management capability and skills/capacity of all role-players, including farmers and water-user associations. :DWHU ZDVWHZDWHU QRQSRLQWVRXUFH SROOXWLRQ DQG ZDWHU UHXVH VKRXOG EH managed in an integrated way. Policy makers should start recognizing and acknowledging urban development processes with their demographic and socio-economic causes and implications for watershed management. Better legislation for health risk reduction can make wastewater irrigation downstream cities more acceptable. ,QZDWHUDOORFDWLRQGHFLVLRQVFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIHTXLW\IRRGVHFXULW\SRYHUW\ reduction, and development needs should be taken into account. Sustainable water resource management requires that water is treated as both an economic and a social good. 7KHUHOHYDQWERXQGDULHVIRULQWHUYHQWLRQVDUHQRWQHFHVVDULO\WKHK\GURORJLFDO boundaries, in rural or urban watersheds. While a hydrological watershed would be most relevant for addressing water quantity and quality problems, and applying pollution control and monitoring measures, both watershed and administrative or social/cultural boundaries will need to be considered. ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRGHYHORSDQDGHTXDWHDQGHIIHFWLYHLQVWLWXWLRQDOIUDPHZRUN to manage and develop watershed resources. Nested institutional structures should be set up to manage large-scale upstream-downstream interactions. A special challenge would be to create a framework that includes the large numbers of informal small-scale water users. Adopting a pragmatic mix of new and existing management arrangements through active consultation can KHOSWRLPSURYHVHUYLFHVDQGUHGXFHFRQÀLFWV

Notes 1 The freshwater resource is the sum of blue and green water. The blue-water resource is the water in aquifers, lakes, wetlands, and impoundments. The green-water resource is WKH PRLVWXUH LQ WKH XQVDWXUDWHG ]RQH 7KHVH UHVRXUFHV JHQHUDWH ÀRZV DV JUHHQZDWHU ÀRZIURPWHUUHVWULDOELRPDVVSURGXFLQJV\VWHPVFURSVIRUHVWVJUDVVODQGVDQGVDYDQQDV DQG EOXHZDWHU ÀRZ LQ ULYHUV WKURXJK ZHWODQGV DQG WKURXJK EDVH ÀRZ IURP groundwater (Falkenmark and Rockström 2006). 2 According to the CA (2007: 47, 587): river basins are the geographic area contained within the watershed limits of a system of streams and rivers converging toward the same terminus, generally the sea or sometimes an inland water body. Tributary sub-basins or basins more limited in size (typically from tens of square kilometers to 1,000 square kilometers) are often called watersheds (in American English), while catchment is frequently used in British English as a synonym for river basins, watershed being PRUHQDUURZO\GH¿QHGDVWKHOLQHVHSDUDWLQJWZRULYHUEDVLQV

Integrated watershed management

69

3 River basin governance functions include (CA 2007; GWP-TEC 2008): planning water resources development, collecting data, allocating water between competing uses, preYHQWLQJ ÀRRGLQJ PRQLWRULQJ DQG HQIRUFLQJ ZDWHU TXDOLW\ VWDQGDUGV FRRUGLQDWLQJ ZDWHUUHODWHG GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ DPRQJ VHFWRUV DQG PRELOL]LQJ ¿QDQFLQJ WR VXSSRUW basin development and management activities. Social, economic, environmental and cultural values and institutional and political factors need to be taken into account as well and should support water management decisions.

References $GDPV :0 ,QWHJUDWHG ULYHU EDVLQ SODQQLQJ LQ 6XE6DKDUDQ $IULFD LQ $. Biswas, and C. Tortajada (eds.,) Integrated River Basin Management: The Latin American Experience, New Delhi: Oxford University Press, pp. 31–51. AfDB (African Development Bank) (2007) Natural Resources for Sustainable Development in Africa, African Development Report series, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Africa Water Task Force (2002) Water and sustainable development in Africa: An African position paper, Pretoria: IWMI. Ahmed, S.E. (2000) Environmental impacts of the alluvial nature of the Nile on irrigated agriculture in Sudan, in Comprehensive water resources development of the Nile Basin: Priorities for the new century, 8th Nile 2002 conference proceedings, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, June 26–30, pp. 390–402. Ashton, P. (1999) Integrated Catchment Management: Balancing Resource Utilization and Conservation, African Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU), online, available at: www.awiru.co.za/pdf/astonpeter.pdf. Awulachew, S.B. (2007) Rural urban linkage in Ethiopia: Implications on water, in G. Zeleke, P. Truttman, and A. Denekew (eds.), Fostering New Development Pathways: Harnessing Rural-Urban Linkage (RUL) to Reduce Poverty and Improve Environment in the Highland of Ethiopia, Proceedings of Global Mountain Program, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, August 29–30, pp. 133–140, online, available at: www.cipotato.org/publications/pdf/004291.pdf. Cawood, M. (2005) An Initial Rapid Appraisal of Flood Damages along the Blue and Main Nile Rivers in Sudan, report prepared for the World Bank and Africa Region, Nile Coordination Unit, Washington D.C.: World Bank. Collins, R.O. (1990) The Waters of the Nile: Hydropolitics and the Jonglei Canal, 1898–1988, Oxford: Clarendon Press. CA (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture) (2007) Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, Molden, D.J. (ed.), London, Earthscan, and Colombo: International Water Management Institute. Conway, D. (2000) The climate and hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River, The Geographical Journal 166(1): 49–62. Drechsel, P., Graefe, S., and Fink M. (2007) Rural-urban food, nutrient and virtual water ÀRZVLQVHOHFWHG:HVW$IULFDQFLWLHVIWMI Research Report 115, Colombo: International Water Management Institute, online, available at: www. iwmi.cgiar.org/publications/IWMI_Research_Reports/PDF/PUB115/RR115.pdf. Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J. (2006) The new Green and Blue paradigm: Breaking new ground for water resource planning and management, Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management, 123(3): 129–132.

70 A. Bahri et al. Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J. (2008) Integrating Agricultural Water Use with the Global Water Budget, paper presented at the Rosenberg Water Policy Forum, Zaragoza, Spain, June 2008, online, available at: http://rosenberg.ucanr.org/ documents/I%20Falkenmark.pdf. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2003) World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030, an FAO Perspective, J. Bruinsma (ed.), London: Earthscan Publications Ltd. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2006a) Food Security and Agricultural Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Building a Case for More Public Support PDLQ UHSRUW E\ :HOGHJKDEHU . 0DHW] 0 DQG 'DUGHO 3 5RPH FAO, online, available at: www.fao.org/docrep/009/a0627e/a0627e00.htm. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) (2006b) Demand for products of irrigated agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, by Riddell, P.J., Westlake M. and Burke J.J., FAO Water Reports, 31, Rome: FAO. Garrido, A. and Iglesias, A. (2008) Lessons for Spain: A Critical Assessment of the Role of Science and Society, paper presented at the Rosenberg Water Policy Forum, Zaragoza, Spain, June 2008, online, available at: www.zaragoza.es/contenidos/ medioambiente/cajaAzul/GarridoACC.pdf. German, L., Mansoor, H., Alemu, G., Mazengia W., Amede, T., and Stroud, A. (2006) Participatory Integrated Watershed Management: Evolution of Concepts and Methods, African Highlands Initiative, Working Papers, 11, online, available at: http://idl-bnc. idrc.ca/dspace/handle/10625/38147. Giesen, N., Andreini, M., Edig, A. and Vlek, P. (2001) Competition for Water Resources of the Volta Basin. Regional Management of Water Resources, Maastricht: IAHS Publ. No. 268. Grey, D. and Sadoff, C. (2004) Sink or swim? Water security for growth and development, Water Policy, 9(6): 545–571. GWP–TAC (2000) Integrated Water Resources Management, background paper No 4. Global Water Partnership – Technical Advisory Committee, online, available at: www. cepis.ops-oms.org/bvsarg/i/fulltext/tac4/tac4.pdf. GWP-TEC (2008) Developing and Managing River Basins: The Need for Adaptive, Multilevel, Collaborative Institutional Arrangements, Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture Issue Brief 12, online, available at: www.iwmi.cgiar.org/ DVVHVVPHQW¿OHVBQHZSXEOLFDWLRQV'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHU&$B,VVXHB%ULHIBSGI IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development) (2007) IFAD Strategic Framework 2007–2010, Rome: IFAD. ,QRFHQFLR$.LNXFKL07RQRVDNL00DUX\DPD$0HUUH\'-6DOO\+DQGGH Jong, I. (2007) Costs and Performance of Irrigation Projects: A Comparison of SubSaharan Africa and Other Developing Regions, IWMI Research Report 109, Colombo: IWMI, online, available at: www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Publications/IWMI_ Research_Reports/ 3')38%55¿QDOSGI -¡QFK&ODXVHQ7 ,QWHJUDWHGZDWHUUHVRXUFHVPDQDJHPHQW,:50 DQGZDWHUHI¿ciency plans by 2005. Why, what and how? TEC Background Papers, No. 10, Mölnlycke: GWP, online, available at: http://hqweb.unep.org/civil_society/GCSF8/pdfs/ ,:50BZDWHUBHI¿FLHQF\SGI .DGLJL50-0GRH16/DQNIRUG%DQG0RUDUGHW6 7KHYDOXHRIZDWHUIRU irrigated paddy and hydropower generation in the Great Ruaha, Tanzania, in B.A. Lankford and H.F. Mahoo (eds.), Proceedings of the East Africa Integrated River Basin Management Conference, March 7–9, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania, pp. 265–278.

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.DVKDLJLOL -- &XUUHQW XWLOL]DWLRQ DQG EHQH¿WV JDLQHG IURP ZHWODQGV LQ WKH Usangu Plains, RIPARWIN Report HRPWET3. .DVKDLJLOL--0F&DUWQH\030DKRR+)0ELOLQ\L%3
72 A. Bahri et al. 6DGRII & DQG *UH\ ' %H\RQG WKH ULYHU 7KH EHQH¿WV RI FRRSHUDWLRQ RQ international rivers, Water Policy, 4(5): 389–403. Tessera, A. (2006) Watershed management approach in reversing soil degradation: Ethiopian experiences and lessons learnt, in Proceedings of Nile Basin Development Forum: The Role of the River Nile in Poverty Reduction and Economic Development in the Region, November 30–December 2, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. UN Millennium Project (2005) Halving Global Hunger: It Can be Done, Summary YHUVLRQRIWKHUHSRUWRIWKH7DVN)RUFHRQ+XQJHU1HZ
5

Lessons for Spain A critical assessment of the role of science and society Alberto Garrido and Ana Iglesias

Introduction 7KLVFKDSWHUH[DPLQHVWKHUROHRIVFLHQWL¿FGHYHORSPHQWDQGDQDO\]HVWKHGHWHUPLQDQWVRILUULJDWLRQG\QDPLFVLQWKHSROLF\GHEDWHRIZDWHUIRUIRRG5HYLHZLQJ DQG FRPSLOLQJ KLWKHUWR XQH[SORUHG GDWD ZH PDNH D FDVH IRU LPSURYLQJ XSRQ ZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\WRWKHIDUPVHFWRU7KHFULWLFDODVVHVVPHQWRIWKHUROHRIWKHVH GHWHUPLQDQWV RQ IXWXUH UXUDO ODQGVFDSHV DQG VRFLHWLHV PD\ SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ IRUIXWXUHSROLF\GHYHORSPHQW 7KHODVW\HDUVKDYHVHHQDPDMRUFKDQJHLQWKHZD\6SDQLVKVRFLHW\SHUFHLYHVZDWHUSUREOHPV7KHSHUFHSWLRQWKDWLQDOOFDVHVZDWHUIRUIRRGFRPSHWHV with ecosystems and urban uses has been nurtured in the course of a number of KLJKLPSDFW HQYLURQPHQWDO H[WUHPHV HJ ± GURXJKW KLJK SUR¿OH RUJDQL]DWLRQV ± ERWK SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH ± DQG LQWHUQDWLRQDO SROLF\ GHEDWHV RI KLJKSUR¿OHHJELRIXHOVDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH 'HHSO\LQJUDLQHGLQWKHPHQWDOLW\ RI HFRQRPLVWV DQG WKH JHQHUDO SXEOLF LV WKH YLHZ WKDW VFDUFLW\ SHULRGV DUH H[DFHUEDWHGE\ZDWHUDJULFXOWXUDOXVH(VWHYDQDQG1DUHGR )XUWKHUPRUH WKHQRWRULRXVFRQWURYHUVLHVEHWZHHQWKH0LQLVWULHVRI$JULFXOWXUHDQGRI(QYLURQPHQWGXULQJWKH±SROLWLFDOWHUPKDYHDGGHGIXHOWRWKHDGYHUVDULDO YLHZVEHWZHHQIDUPHUVDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQW ,UULJDWLRQLQ6SDLQKDVHYROYHGIRUPRUHWKDQFHQWXULHVEXWPRGHUQLUULJDWLRQ KDV SURJUHVVHG UDSLGO\ LQ WKH ODVW \HDUV PDNLQJ D WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ VLOHQWHYROXWLRQ RISRSXODWLRQVHWWOHPHQWRQODQGVFDSHVWKDWRWKHUZLVHZRXOG not really support large numbers of people, due to the aridity of the climate. %HWZHHQDQG6SDLQGRXEOHGWKHLUULJDWHGDFUHDJHDQGEXLOWDURXQG QHZELJGDPVZKLFKLVDPDWHULDOUHÀHFWLRQRIWKHSULRULWLHVRI)UDQFR¶V JRYHUQPHQWV XQGHU KLV \HDU UXOH 0RUH UHFHQWO\ WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ¶V &RPPRQ$JULFXOWXUDO3ROLF\ZDVIURPXQWLODIXQGDPHQWDOGULYHU RI IDUPHUV¶ GHFLVLRQV )DUP VXSSRUW SURJUDPV HYROYHG IURP VWURQJ SULFH support mechanisms to almost fully decoupled direct payments. This gradual change has interacted with two other recent policies: national water policy and WKH(8:DWHU)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYH,QWKHSURVSHFWLYHRILUULJDWHGDJULculture changed entirely as a result of the global tensions of basic commodity prices.

A. Garrido and A. Iglesias 7KHREYLRXVGLPHQVLRQVRILUULJDWLRQDUHDWWHVWHGE\WKHDPRXQWRIZDWHUXVHG LQDJULFXOWXUHSHUFHQWRIDOOZDWHUXVHV WKHLUULJDWHGODQGSHUFHQWRIDOO FURSSHG ODQG WKH W\SH RI FURSV JURZQ DQG WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQVHTXHQFHV 7DQJLEOH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI WKHVH FKDQJHV DUH WKH HFRQRPLF YDOXH RI SURGXFWLRQ PRUHWKDQSHUFHQWRIDOOIDUPRXWSXW SROLF\WHFKQRORJ\DQGVFLHQFH7KHUH DUH DOVR LQWDQJLEOH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI FKDQJH WKDW UHSUHVHQW VRFLHWDO YDOXHV WKDW LQÀXHQFH YLHZV RQ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI FRPPRQ DQG SXEOLF UHVRXUFHV 7KLV FKDSWHU VSHFXODWHV DERXW WKH IXWXUH SURVSHFWLYH IRU ZDWHU XVH LQ LUULJDWLRQ LQ 6SDLQ LQ OLJKW RI WKH PRVW UHFHQW FKDQJHV DQG WKH WDQJLEOH DQG LQWDQJLEOH determinants. 7KHFKDSWHULVVWUXFWXUHGZLWK¿YHIXUWKHUVHFWLRQV7KHQH[WVHFWLRQSURYLGHV a brief chronological description of the water use for agriculture, commenting on WKHG\QDPLFVRIODQGXVHHFRQRPLFRXWSXWFURSVSURGXFHGDQGHQYLURQPHQWDO HIIHFWV1H[WZHGHVFULEHWKHWDQJLEOHGHWHUPLQDQWVRISDVWLUULJDWLRQG\QDPLFV and in the third section, we discuss the less tangible emerging factors that affect FXUUHQW LUULJDWHG DJULFXOWXUH LQ 6SDLQ LQFOXGLQJ WKH UROH RI SHUFHSWLRQV E\ GLIIHUHQW JURXSV RI VWDNHKROGHUV DQG WKH FKDQJLQJ VRFLHWDO YDOXHV 8VLQJ WKHVH LGHDVLQWKHVXEVHTXHQWVHFWLRQZHWKHQGHYHORSDFULWLFDODVVHVVPHQWRIWKHUROH of the irrigation enterprises, science and technology, and institutions in the future HYROXWLRQ RI LUULJDWLRQ LQ 6SDLQ WKDW PD\ FRQWULEXWH WR IXWXUH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI ZDWHUIRUIRRGSROLF\7KH¿QDOVHFWLRQGUDZVVRPHFRQFOXVLRQVRQWKHGDWDDQG DQDO\VLVSURYLGHGLQWKHFKDSWHU

Monitoring water for food The limits of rainfall $JULFXOWXUHLQ6SDLQLVPRUHVHQVLWLYHWRLQWHUDQQXDOUDLQIDOOYDULDWLRQVWKDQPDQ\ RWKHU (XURSHDQ UHJLRQV EHFDXVH WKH SK\VLFDO IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ SURGXFWLRQ VRLOV WHUUDLQDQGFOLPDWH DUHLQODUJHDUHDVOHVVVXLWHGWRIDUPLQJ&URSSURGXFWLRQLQ 6SDLQYDULHVE\XSWRSHUFHQWIURP\HDUWR\HDUODUJHO\DVDUHVXOWRIKLJKO\ YDULDEOHUDLQIDOO2QO\SHUFHQWRIWKHODQGDUHDRI6SDLQLVVXLWDEOHIRUFXOWLYDtion because of the rugged topography of the country. Large agricultural regions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¿FLHQW RI YDULDWLRQ &9 RI SUHFLSLWDWLRQ YDULHV IURP WR SHUFHQW implying a high risk of rain-fed crop failures and the need for supplementary irriJDWLRQWRPHHWIXOOFURSZDWHUUHTXLUHPHQWVDQGDFKLHYHSRWHQWLDO\LHOG

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Total commercial Household uses (%) consumption (%)

Total useage (Mm3)

Lessons for Spain Land use ,UULJDWLRQLVDPDLQFRPSRQHQWRIWKHFKDQJHVLQDJULFXOWXUDOODQGXVHRYHUWKH ODVW GHFDGH 7ZR H[WUHPH ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ HSLVRGHV DQG ± DQG PDMRU FKDQJHV LQ WKH DJULFXOWXUDO VXSSRUW PHDVXUHV LQ WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ &RPPRQ $JULFXOWXUDO 3ROLF\ KDYH WDNHQ SODFH GXULQJ WKLV WLPH *DUULGR DQG 9DUHOD2UWHJD )LJXUHVKRZVWKHLQFUHDVLQJWUHQGRILUULJDWHGODQGLQ JUHHQKRXVHVFURSSURWHFWHGSORWWHGLQWKHULJKWD[LVLQVKD WKHVWDELOL]Dtion of total irrigated land and the slight reduction of planted crops under a rainfed regime, both referred to the left axis in million hectares. The latter is due to ORVVRIDJULFXOWXUDOODQGWRXUEDQLQGXVWULDODQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHGHYHORSPHQW7KH pattern of change is not uniform across the territory; the most striking changes KDYHRFFXUUHGLQUHJLRQVZLWKWKHODUJHVWZDWHUGH¿FLW0HGLWHUUDQHDQUHJLRQV )LJXUHVKRZVWKHUHPDUNDEOHJURZWKRIJUHHQKRXVHKHFWDUHVLQ6SDLQUHDFKLQJDOPRVWKDLQ1RWHDOVRWKHGURXJKWHIIHFWVLQLQDOOYDUL DEOHVSORWWHGLQERWKSDQHOVDQGWKHYHU\VOLJKWUHGXFWLRQRISODQWHGDUHDFDXVHG E\ WKH GURXJKW ,W LV FOHDU WKDW LUULJDWLRQ DQG SURWHFWHG DJULFXOWXUH HQVXUH low risk and higher income to farmers, and it is the choice of many producers WKDW KDYH WKLV RSWLRQ 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKHVH DFWLYLWLHV QHHG SROLF\ LQWHUYHQWLRQV $OWKRXJKWKHSUHYLRXV\HDUVKDYHVHHQDPDMRULQFUHDVHLQLUULJDWLRQDQGSURWHFWHG DJULFXOWXUH WKH FXUUHQW HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG VRFLHWDO FKRLFHV OLPLW IXUWKHU expansion. Crops produced ,UULJDWHGFURSVKDYHDOVRFKDQJHGGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHUWKHODVWGHFDGH7DEOH UDQNVWKHPDLQLUULJDWHGFURSVLQWHUPVRIWRWDOYDOXHIRU6SDLQDQGWKHUHJLRQV RI $QGDOXVLD DQG &DVWLOOH/HRQ IRU \HDUV DQG :H DOVR UHSRUW WKH UDQN LQ WHUPV RI HDFK FURS¶V VXUIDFH DQG LQ YDOXH SHU KHFWDUH 1DWLRQDO ¿JXUHV KLJKOLJKW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ VSHFLDOW\ FURSV WKURXJK WKH SHULRG DV VL[ RU VHYHQ RXW RI WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FURSV FDQ EH grouped as such, the remaining three being more “continental” or “arable FURSV´FRUQDOIDOIDVXJDUEHHWV 1RWLFHWKHUDQNRIDVFRPSDUHGZLWK WKDWDGHFDGHHDUOLHU:KLOHLQWRPDWRHVJUDSHVDQGROLYHVUDQNHG¿UVW VHFRQG DQG HLJKWK LQ JUDSHV DQG ROLYHV GR QRW VKRZ XS LQ WKH UDQN )XUWKHU VXJDU EHHWV IHOO IURP VL[WK WR WHQWK DQG SRWDWRHV UDQNHG HLJKWK LQ DQG GLVDSSHDUHG IURP WKH WHQ WRS FURSV LQ ,Q $QGDOXVLD ZLWK KD RI LUULJDWHG KHFWDUHV LQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH UDQN LV TXLWH VWDEOHDOWKRXJKFRWWRQZHQWGRZQIURPWKLUGLQWRWHQWKLQDQGGLVDSSHDUHG LQ ,Q &DVWLOOD/pRQ WKH UDQNLQJ LV DOVR TXLWH VWDEOH DORQJ WKH ±GHFDGH7KHUHDUHODUJHUHJLRQDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHWKUHH UDQNLQJ FULWHULD WRWDO RXWSXW WRWDO DFUHDJH DQG YDOXH SHU KHFWDUH ,Q PRVW cases, the crops with the largest acreage rank below twentieth in the rankings RI WKH PRVW SUR¿WDEOH FURSV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH FURSV ZLWK WKH ODUJHVW WRWDO DFUHDJH UDQN HYHQ ORZHU LQ WRWDO YDOXH DQG SHUKHFWDUH SURGXFWLYLW\ 'HVSLWH

A. Garrido and A. Iglesias WKHVHDSSDUHQWUHJLRQDOGLIIHUHQFHVVLJQL¿FDQWWUHQGVDUHIRXQGDWWKHQDWLRQDO OHYHO7KHUHLVDFOHDUUHWUHDWRIVXEVLGL]HGFURSVOLNHFRUQDQGDOIDOIDLQWKH UDQN YDOXH WKDW KDYH QRW EHHQ DFFRPSDQLHG ZLWK D ORZHULQJ UDQN LQ WRWDO VXUIDFH&RUQDQGDOIDOIDUDQNHGVHFRQGDQGIRXUWKLQVXUIDFHLQDQGVWLOO ZHUH¿UVWDQG¿IWKLQ2OLYHVDQGJUDSHVDUHWKHJURZLQJLUULJDWHGFURSV UDQNLQJWKLUGDQGVL[WKLQIURP¿IWKDQGIRXUWHHQWKLQ/DVWO\WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH UDQNLQJV GLG QRW FKDQJH EHWZHHQ DQG GHVSLWH WKH IDFWWKDWZDVDYHU\GU\\HDU ,Q 7DEOH ZH UHSRUW WKH UDQN FRUUHODWLRQ .HQGDOO 7DX¶V EHWZHHQ WKH FURSV¶SURGXFWLYLW\DQGUDQNLQDFUHDJHLQHDFKRIWKHPDLQIDUPSURYLQFHV:H 14

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78 76

10

74

8

72 6

70

4

68

2

66

0

64 2005

2006

2005

2006

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

Irrigated area (mill. ha) Rainfed (mill.ha) Greenhouse (1000 ha) Right axis 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004

2003

2002

Rainfed

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

Irrigated area

Greenhouse

Figure 5.2 6SDQLVKIDUPDFUHDJHDQGRXWSXWUHDOLQELOOLRQ¼RI VRXUFH0$3$

Lessons for Spain KDYH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW FURSV RXW RI SRVVLEOH FURSV LQFOXGHG LQ IDUP VWDWLVWLFV0$3$YDULRXV\HDUV 7KHWDEOHUHSRUWVWKHUDQNFRUUHODWLRQVRI\HDUV DQGDQGWKHSHUFHQWDJHFKDQJHVRILUULJDWHGODQGSURGXFWLYLW\ LQUHDOWHUPV EHWZHHQDQGWKLUGFROXPQLQ7DEOH DQGEHWZHHQ DQG7KHXQGHUO\LQJK\SRWKHVLVLVWKDWZLWKKLJKHUUDQNFRUUHODWLRQV PRUH VLPLODU UDQNV EHWZHHQ WKH FURSV¶ RUGHULQJ LQ WHUPV RI SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG DFUHDJH ZH VKRXOG H[SHFW ODUJHU JDLQV LQ ODQG SURGXFWLYLW\ LQ PRVW UHJLRQV $QGLQIDFWWKLVLVIRXQGLQPRVWSURYLQFHVZKHUHWKH.HQGDOO¶V7DXLVVLJQL¿FDQW S DQG S VR WKDW LQFUHDVHV LQ UDQN FRUUHODWLRQV DUH IROORZHG E\ LQFUHDVHVLQLUULJDWHGODQGSURGXFWLYLW\DWDSURYLQFLDOOHYHO7KHUHYHUVHVKRXOG DOVREHWUXHDVUDQNFRUUHODWLRQVGLPLQLVKZHVKRXOGH[SHFWQHJDWLYHFKDQJHVLQ ODQGSURGXFWLYLW\7KHJUD\KLJKOLJKWHGFHOOVLQWKHWDEOHDUHFDVHVLQZKLFKWKH K\SRWKHVLVLVUHIXWHG2QO\LQVHYHQRXWRISRVVLEOHFRPSDULVRQVWKHFKDQJHV of rank correlations are not matched by the corresponding changes of land SURGXFWLYLW\7KHLPSOLFDWLRQLVWKDWODQGSURGXFWLYLW\KDVLQFUHDVHGPRUHIRUWKH SURYLQFHV LQ ZKLFK PRUH SUR¿WDEOH FURSV KDYH WDNHQ PRUH LUULJDWHG ODQG This implies that more dynamic farming and freedom to crop increases IDUP SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG SROLFLHV WKDW KLQGHU WKLV SURFHVV HQWDLO ORZHU ODQG DQG ZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\JDLQV Environmental externalities ,W LV ZLGHO\ UHFRJQL]HG WKDW LUULJDWHG LQWHQVLYH DJULFXOWXUH LV D VRXUFH RI ZDWHU TXDOLW\ SUREOHPV LQ PDQ\ DUHDV )RU LQVWDQFH DTXLIHUV¶ QLWUDWHV FRQWDPLQDWLRQ ZDVIRXQGWREHLQFUHDVLQJLQSHUFHQWRIWKHK\GURJHRORJLFXQLWV$ERXW SHUFHQWRIWKHXQLWVKDGDFKORULQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDERYHPJO00$ The agricultural sector is responsible for serious non-point pollution, caused by IHUWLOL]HUVDQGSODQWSURWHFWLRQFURSV/DNHHXWUR¿]DWLRQSURFHVVHVDUHEHFRPLQJ DYHU\VHULRXVSUREOHPLQWKH/RZ7DJXVEDVLQZKLFKZLOOUHTXLUHSURPSWDFWLRQ LQRUGHUWRPHHWWKH:DWHU)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGVLQWKHZDWHUV ÀRZLQJWR3RUWXJDO*DUULGR et al. ,QWKH6HJXUD(EUR6RXWKDQG*XDGLQDQDEDVLQVVXOIDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDERYHPJOZHUHIRXQGLQPRUHWKDQ percent of the monitoring stations.

The tangible determinants of change 2YHUDOOPRVWRIWKHLUULJDWLRQUHODWHGGHFLVLRQVGHSHQGRQIDUPHUV¶H[SHFWDWLRQV DV WR WKH SUR¿WDELOLW\ RI WKH DFWLYLW\ DV ZHOO DV WKH EHQH¿WV DQG FRVW RI LUULJDWHGYHUVXVUDLQIHGIDUPLQJ7KHSULQFLSDOGHWHUPLQDQWVRIWKHSUR¿WDELOLW\RILUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUHLQ6SDLQLQFOXGHFRPPRGLW\PDUNHWVDYDLODELOLW\ of water and cost; costs of other agricultural inputs, such as labor, capital, and HQHUJ\ HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQFHUQV DQG UHJXODWLRQV DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV WKDW LQÀXHQFH KRZ ZDWHU PLJKW EH XVHG DQG WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVWV RI ZDWHU IRU irrigation.

2000 2

2

2

Alfalfa Tomatoes Corn 9LQH\DUG 0DQGDULQ Peaches Potato 2UDQJHV 2OLYHV 6XJDUEHHW

Alfalfa Tomatoes 2UDQJHV 0DQGDULQV Lettuce 6XJDUEHHW Corn Potatoes Beans *DUOLF

Rank in Crop value per ha

Year Total Spain value Total Area ha

2

Andalucía Ű Total Area

2OLYHVIRURLO Tomatoes Cotton 2UDQJHV 6XJDUEHHW Potatoes Rice Lettuce Pepper 2OLYHV

2OLYHVIRURLO Tomatoes 2UDQJHV Lettuce 6XJDUEHHW Potatoes 2OLYHV Peaches Corn Rice

Rank in value Crop per ha

Ű

2 20

2

Total Area

Castilla-Léon

Table 5.2 0DLQFURSVUDQNHGE\WRWDOYDOXHLQDQGRXWRILUULJDWHGFURSVLQ6SDLQ

Rank in value per ha

6XJDUEHHW Corn Potato Alfalfa )RUDJH&RUQ Barley :KHDW Carrot Beans Lettuce

6XJDUEHHW Alfalfa Corn )RUDJH&RUQ Potato Barley Lettuce Carrot Beans *DUOLF

Crop

2

Tomatoes 9LQH\DUG Alfalfa Peaches Corn 2UDQJHV 0DQGDULQV 2OLYHV Lettuce 6XJDUEHHW

Alfalfa Tomatoes 9LQH\DUG Corn 0DQGDULQV 2UDQJHV 2OLYHVIRURLO Peaches Potato 6XJDUEHHW

6RXUFH$QXDULRGH(VWDGtVWLFD$JUDULD0$3$YDULRXV\HDUV

2

2

2 2OLYHVIRURLO Tomatoes 2UDQJHV Lettuce 6XJDUEHHW Potato 2OLYHV Peaches Corn Rice

2OLYHVIRURLO Tomatoes 2UDQJHV 6XJDUEHHW Lettuce 2OLYHV Potato Corn Pepper Cotton 2

2

6XJDUEHHW Corn Potato Alfalfa )RUDJH&RUQ Barley :KHDW Carrot Lettuce Beans

6XJDUEHHW Corn Potato Alfalfa Corn Barley Carrot :KHDW Beans 9LQH\DUG

A. Garrido and A. Iglesias Table 5.3 .HQGDOO¶V7DXUDQNFRUUHODWLRQDQGLQFUHDVHVRILUULJDWHGODQGSURGXFWLYLW\LQ real 2000 euros 1996 Kendall’s Tau

2000 Kendall’s Tau

% Prod 1996–2000

2006 Kendall’s Tau

% Prod 2000–2006

Ala Alb Ali Alm Bad Bur Cac Cas Cir Cor *XD Hue Hus -DH Leo Lri 0DO

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± ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±

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±

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S

S

Economic value of water and land productivity 7KH SULFH WKDW IDUPHUV UHFHLYH IRU WKHLU FURSV LV D FULWLFDO GHWHUPLQDQW RI WKHLU GHFLVLRQVWRLUULJDWH7KHH[WUDRUGLQDU\H[SDQVLRQRILUULJDWLRQLQ6SDLQRYHUWKHODVW GHFDGHVUHÀ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

Lessons for Spain JURZWKLQFRQVWDQWHXURV7KLVPD\EHGXHWRORZHUSURGXFHSULFHVRIIUXLWVDQGYHJHWDEOHVZKLFKLQWXUQPD\KDYHEHHQFDXVHGE\(XURSHDQ8QLRQLQFUHDVHGLPSRUWV IURP QRQ(XURSHDQ 8QLRQ FRXQWULHV OLNH 7XUNH\ 0RURFFR ,VUDHO 6RXWK $IULFD DQG RWKHU H[SRUWLQJ FRXQWULHV $OVR ORZHU ZDWHU TXDOLW\ GHSOHWHG JURXQGZDWHU UHVRXUFHVDQG¿HUFHFRPSHWLWLRQIRUYHU\VFDUFHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVH[SODLQWKHFOHDU VWDJQDWLRQRIIDUPSURGXFWLYLW\LQWKHVHSURYLQFHV,Q1RUWK&DVWLOOHLQWKHXSSHU right panel, we see unambiguous reduction in both rain-fed and irrigated land proGXFWLYLWLHV,QWKHVHSURYLQFHV(XURSHDQ8QLRQVXEVLGLHVUHSUHVHQWWKHODUJHVWSHUFHQWDJH LQ WHUPV RI IDUPV¶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right panel, we see a similar trend but, in addition to the wine industry, there is signi¿FDQWJURZWKLQWKHROLYHVHFWRUDQGLQIUXLWVDQGYHJHWDEOHVDVZHOO Capitalization of irrigated agriculture The tremendous transformation of land-holding structure in the irrigated sector in 6SDLQLVUHÀHFWHGLQWKHGHFUHDVHRIIDUPRSHUDWRUV)DUPODERUGDWDVKRZWKDWWKH PRVWLPSRUWDQWLUULJDWLRQSURYLQFHVKDYHORVWDERXWIDUPRSHUDWRUVSHU\HDU 7KH¿JXUHVUHODWHGWRKLUHGZRUNHUVIROORZWKDWWUHQGOHVVFORVHO\,QIDFWWKHUHDUH SURYLQFHVLQZKLFKWKHQXPEHURIKLUHGZRUNHUVKDVJRQHXS*LO 7KHQXPEHURIIDUPRSHUDWRUVKDVJRQHGRZQYHU\VOLJKWO\EXWWKHIDUPVHFWRU KDVEHHQVLJQL¿FDQWO\PRUHSURGXFWLYH,QWKHLQWHULRUUHJLRQVWKHWUHQGLVXQDPELJXRXV7RWDOIDUPSURGXFWLRQKDVLQFUHDVHGTXLWHVLJQL¿FDQWO\DQGWKHQXPEHURI IDUPRSHUDWRUVKDVGHFUHDVHGTXLWHVLJQL¿FDQWO\$VDUHVXOWRIWKHVHSURFHVVHVIDUP ODERUSURGXFWLYLW\KDVLQFUHDVHGE\DWOHDVWSHUFHQWEHWZHHQDQGLQ YLUWXDOO\DOOSURYLQFHVEXWPRUHVKDUSO\LQWKHLQWHULRUUHJLRQVWKDQLQWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQUHJLRQV7KHOLYHVWRFNVHFWRUH[SODLQVWKHPDMRU³PDFUR´SURGXFWLYLW\JDLQV VKRZQDWWKHSURYLQFLDOOHYHODGGHGWRWKHSURGXFWLYLW\JDLQVLQWKHROLYHDQGZLQH VHFWRUV7KHIDFWWKDWWKHLQWHQVLYHOLYHVWRFNVHFWRUKDVEHFRPHLQWKHODVWWHQ\HDUV DPRQJWKHODUJHVWLQWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQH[SODLQVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIFURSVOLNHFRUQ DQGDOIDOID9LUWXDOZDWHULPSRUWVIRUFHUHDOVDQGIHHGQRZUHSUHVHQWDVPXFKZDWHU DVLVFRQVXPHGLQWKHFRXQWU\LQHDFK\HDU1RYR et al. $QRWKHUIDFWWKDWDWWHVWVIRUWKHLQFUHDVLQJFDSLWDOL]DWLRQLVWKHDPRXQWRIRXWVWDQGLQJGHEWRIWKHZKROHIDUPVHFWRU)DUPHUV¶RXWVWDQGLQJGHEWKDVJURZQWR ELOOLRQHXURLQIURPLQ,QRXWVWDQGLQJGHEWZDVHTXLYDOHQWWRWKHVHFWRU¶VQHWLQFRPHZKHUHDVLQLWZDVSHUFHQW

Southeast Mediterranean 20

Irrigation 1,000 B/ha

1996 2006

15 2006

10

1996 2006 2006 1996

5

2006

2006

2006 1996

1996 1996

1996 1996 2006

0 0

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1

1.5

2

2.5

Rainfed 1,000 B/ha Alicante

Valencia

Castellon

Almería

Jaén

Málaga

Murcia

Huelva

North Castille

Irrigation 1,000 B/ha

3.5

1996

3

2.5

2006 1996 2006 1996

2

2006

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Rainfed 1,000 B/ha

I

Burgos

León

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Ebro 2006

Irrigation 1,000 B/ha

8

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6

1996

1996

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2006

1996

2006

2006 2006 1996

1996

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Rainfed 1,000 B/ha Ala

LRio

Nav

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Tar

Zar

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South Castille

Irrigation 1,000 B/ha

6

2006

2006

5 2006 2006

4 1996 1996

2006

3 1996 1996

2

1996 1996 2006

1 0

0.5

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2

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Rainfed 1,000 B/ha

I

Badajoz

Ciudad Real

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Cáceres

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Figure 5.3 Continued

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Lessons for Spain 1.8 1.6

Million hectares

1.4

2002 2005 2008

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References %DUEHUR $ The Spanish National Irrigation Plan 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW 2(&' :RUNVKRS RQ $JULFXOWXUH DQG :DWHU 6XVWDLQDELOLW\ 0DUNHWV DQG 3ROLFLHV 1RYHPEHU ±$GHODLGH6RXWK$XVWUDOLD &DEUHUD(DQG$UUHJXL) Water Engineering and Mangement Through Time – Learning from History/HLGHQ&5&3UHVV%DONHPD &DXVDSH - 4XLOH] ' DQG $UDJXHV 5 $VVHVVPHQW RI LUULJDWLRQ DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO TXDOLW\ DW WKH K\GURORJLFDO EDVLQ OHYHO ± ,, VDOW DQG QLWUDWH ORDGV LQ LUULJDWLRQ UHWXUQÀRZVAgricultural Water Management ± &HWLQ %
Lessons for Spain Century: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Groundwater Sustainability, 1DWLRQDO*URXQGZDWHU$VVRFLDWLRQ3UHVV2KLR((88SS± *DUULGR$DQG/ODPDV05 Water Policy in Spain/HLGHQ7D\ORU )UDQFLV *DUULGR$DQG9DUHOD2UWHJD& Economía del agua en la agricultura e integración de políticas sectoriales3DQHOGH(VWXGLRV8QLYHUVLGDGGH6HYLOOD0LQLVWHULRGH 0HGLR$PELHQWH *DUULGR $ %DUUHLUD $ 'LQDU 6 DQG /XTXH ( 7KH 6SDQLVK DQG 3RUWXJXHVH FRRSHUDWLRQ RYHU WKHLU WUDQVERXQGDU\ EDVLQV LQ $ *DUULGR DQG 05 /ODPDV HGV Water Policy in Spain/HLGHQ7D\ORUDQG)UDQFLVSS± *DUULGR$/ODPDV05&RQVXHOR9DUHOD2UWHJD1RYR35RGUtJXH]&DVDGR5DQG $OGD\D 00 Water Footprint and Virtual Water Trade of Spain: Policy Implications1HZFRQVXOWHGEHWZHHQ-XQHDQG$XJXVW@ 0DHVWX - DQG *yPH] &0 :DWHU XVHV LQ WUDQVLWLRQ LQ $ *DUULGR DQG 05 /ODPDVHGV Water Policy in Spain/HLGHQ7D\ORU )UDQFLVSS± 00$ El Agua en la Economía Española: Situación y Perspectivas. Informe Integrado del Análisis Económico de los Usos del Agua$UWtFXOR\$QHMRV,,\,,,GHOD 'LUHFWLYD0DUFRGHO$JXD0DGULG0LQLVWHULR0HGLR$PELHQWH

A. Garrido and A. Iglesias 1RYR3*DUULGR$DQG9DUHOD2UWHJD& $UHYLUWXDOZDWHU³ÀRZV´LQ6SDQLVK JUDLQ WUDGH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK UHODWLYH ZDWHU VFDUFLW\" Ecological Economics ± 2ZHLV 7 DQG +DFKXP $ :DWHU KDUYHVWLQJ DQG VXSSOHPHQWDO LUULJDWLRQ IRU LPSURYHG ZDWHU SURGXFWLYLW\ RI GU\ IDUPLQJ V\VWHPV LQ :HVW $VLD DQG 1RUWK $IULFD Agricultural Water Management± ± 3HWHUVRQ -0 DQG 'LQJ < (FRQRPLF DGMXVWPHQWV WR JURXQGZDWHU GHSOHWLRQ LQ WKHKLJKSODLQV'RZDWHUVDYLQJLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVVDYHZDWHU"American Journal of Agricultural Economics ± 6KDQL87VXU<DQG=HPHO$ 2SWLPDOG\QDPLFLUULJDWLRQVFKHPHVOptimal Control Applications and Methods ± 81&&' 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV &RQYHQWLRQ WR &RPEDW 'HVHUWL¿FDWLRQ &RQYHQWLRQ DGRSWHG LQ 3DULV RQ -XQH DQG RSHQHG IRU VLJQDWXUH WKHUH RQ 2FWREHU ± HQWHUHGLQWRIRUFHRQ'HFHPEHUFRXQWULHVZHUH3DUWLHVDVDW0DUFK RQOLQHDYDLODEOHDWZZZXQFFGLQW>DFFHVVHG-XQH@ 81,6'58QLWHG1DWLRQV,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WUDWHJ\IRU'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQ Drought, Living with Risk: An Integrated Approach to Reducing Societal Vulnerability to Drought $G +RF 'LVFXVVLRQ *URXS RQ 'URXJKW *HQHYD RQOLQH DYDLODEOH DW ZZZ XQLVGURUJHQJWDVNIRUFHWIDGKRFGURXJKWV:*'GRFSGI 9DUHOD2UWHJD& Water and Nature: Public Policies for Groundwater Management and Ecosystem Conservation3DSHUSUHVHQWHGDWWKH9,$JULFXOWXUDO(FRQRPLFV &RQJUHVVRIWKH6SDQLVK$VVRFLDWLRQRI$JULFXOWXUDO(FRQRPLVWV$OEDFHWH6SDLQ6HSWHPEHU± 9DUHOD2UWHJD&DQG+HUQiQGH]0RUD1 ,QVWLWXWLRQVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOUHIRUPLQ WKH 6SDQLVK ZDWHU VHFWRU $ KLVWRULFDO SHUVSHFWLYH LQ $ *DUULGR DQG 05 /ODPDV HGV Water Policy in SpainP/HLGHQ7D\ORU )UDQFLV

Part III

Counting the drops and the mouths to feed Food production and trade

6

Back to basics on water as constraint for global food production Opportunities and limitations Malin Falkenmark and Johan Rockström

Introduction Water is a key component in food production, deeply involved in the photosynthesis process. Water also carries nutrients through the plant from the roots to the leaf surfaces where it gets lost when stomata open to take in carbon dioxide from the air. Although agriculture is often referred to as the largest water-consuming activity, this generally refers to irrigation (70 percent of total withdrawals) and consumptive blue water use only. In reality, water use for food production is more complex, including also the green water resource (soil PRLVWXUHIURPLQ¿OWUDWHGUDLQIDOO :KHQLQFOXGLQJJUHHQZDWHUWKHFRQVXPStive water usage is in the order of three and a half times more than generally stated. On the other hand, agricultural water usage as a whole – some 7,000 km3/yr – corresponds to only 6 percent of the 110,000 km3/yr of continental precipitation. In the past, a clear conceptual dichotomy existed between rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. With the growing realization of the potential for upgrading rain-fed agriculture, using supplementary irrigation for dry-spell mitigation, such dichotomy is at least partly outdated. On the one hand, irrigated crops have a EDVLFVXSSO\RILQ¿OWUDWHGUDLQLHJUHHQZDWHU RQWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHGU\VSHOO mitigation involves water harvesting and supplementary irrigation with smallscale, farm-level tanks as water sources. The aim of this chapter is to portray water requirements for food production in a global perspective and to demonstrate the relative importance of the green water resource. The study examines blue and green water availability in different countries to food water requirements by 2050. It also estimates future options in water productivity increases, expansion of croplands over non-permanent pastures, grasslands and forests, and imports by virtual water trade. Taking a blue/ green approach, the study categorizes countries by distinguishing between shortage and freedom of green and blue water, respectively. Green water is seen as scarce if the resource is below the per-capita food water requirements, and is otherwise characterized as green water freedom. Blue water is seen as scarce EH\RQGWKHSHRSOHSHUÀRZXQLWRIRQHPLOOLRQFXELFPHWHUVRIEOXHZDWHU recharged per year, otherwise characterized as blue water freedom.

104 M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström

Water availability and food water requirement Back to basics The key water resource is seen as the precipitation, partitioned at the land surface between green water resource and soil moisture availability, to plants and blue water resource and runoff available for societal withdrawal and control (Figure )DONHQPDUNDQG5RFNVWU|P 7KHJUHHQZDWHUÀRZLVFRPSOH[E\LWVFRPELQDWLRQRIHYDSRUDWLRQIURPZHW surfaces (including interception losses) and transpiration, directly involved in the plant production process. Where vegetation is thin, evaporation from wet soil between the plants dominates plant-producing transpiration, resulting in low water productivity in terms of ton biomass per cubic meter of water. Thus, in semiarid tropics, the rainfall amounts would allow much larger biomass outcome LIWKHHYDSRUDWLRQORVVFRXOGEHUHGXFHGE\IDFLOLWDWLQJLQ¿OWUDWLRQLQWRWKHURRW zone. Figure 6.2 illustrates the conceptualization for the case of Kenya (SEI ,WVKRZVWKHUDLQIDOODQGLWVSDUWLWLRQLQJEHWZHHQJUHHQZDWHUÀRZIURP GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI YHJHWDWLRQ DQG EOXH ZDWHU ÀRZ 7KH ODWWHU LV GHFRPSRVHG LQ ZDWHUZLWKGUDZDOHQYLURQPHQWDOÀRZWREHUHVHUYHGIRUDTXDWLFHFRV\VWHPVDQG the reserve that might be allocated for other societal uses. The green water resource available for food production, without cropland expansion or food import, is seen as the green water availability in croplands, including permanent pasture.

Figure 6.1 The green-blue approach to water resource, seeing precipitation as the IUHVKZDWHUUHVRXUFHZKLFKLVSDUWLWLRQHGLQEOXHDQGJUHHQZDWHUÀRZV generating blue (groundwater, surface water) and green (soil moisture) UHVRXUFHVVRXUFH)DONHQPDUNDQG5RFNVWU|P

A constraint for global food production

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Figure 6.2 5DLQZDWHUSDUWLWLRQLQJEHWZHHQJUHHQZDWHULQGLIIHUHQWODQGVDQGEOXHZDWHU UHVRXUFHVIRU.HQ\DGHFRPSRVHGLQZDWHUZLWKGUDZDOHQYLURQPHQWDOÀRZWR be reserved for aquatic ecosystems, and the remaining reserve for other societal uses (source: SEI 2005).

Method 7KH DVVHVVPHQW RI ZDWHU VKRUWDJHV DQG WKH SRVVLELOLW\ IRU IRRG VHOIVXI¿FLHQF\ builds on a water availability analysis, based on the process-based, pixel-level LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed Land) dynamic global vegetation and water balance model. This model is extensively validated against biogeochemical and hydrological observations, and includes leaf phenology, crop yields, river discharge, soil moisture/green water, and green and blue water use (Gerten et al. 2004). The green water availability analysis was made for current cropODQGVDQGSHUPDQHQWSDVWXUH5RFNVWU|P et al. 2009). The food water requirements were calculated as the crop evapotranspiration for production of the required amount of food, assuming current water productivity (crops produced per drop evapotranspired), and a food supply need of 3,000 kcal/p/day, of which 20 percent are animal products. This corresponds to a water requirement of 1,300 m3S\U5RFNVWU|P et al. 2007). The 3,000 kcal/p/day is the empirical food supply needed to avoid undernourished population strata in the population (SEI 2005). Even if, from a calorie perspective, 3,000 kcal/p/day may be considered quite high, 3,000 kcal/p/day is at the same time the level to which the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that food consumption, as an average for developing countries, will have increased by 2030 in its report World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 (FAO 2003).

106 M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström The water availability situation in 2050 was based on projections of future economic development and population rise, making the following assumptions: climate anomalies from the HadCM2 scenario (Mitchell et al. WKH HFRQRP\RULHQWHG65(6$FDUERQHPLVVLRQVWUDMHFWRU\1DNLFHQRYLFDQG6ZDUW DQGWKHUHODWHGVORZIHUWLOLW\WUDQVLWLRQSURMHFWLRQ%HQJWVVRQ et al. 2006). According to a recent study (Lundqvist et al. 2007), food water requirements in a country vary with income and has been shown to grow rapidly with increasing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – presumably due to diet change – up to some $10,000 per capita and year. Beyond that income level, the average water requirements tend to stabilize around an average of 5 m3/p/day, or 1,825 m3/p/yr. The consumption depends a lot on the meat component, arriving at around 2,000 m3/p/yr for high-meat diet countries, and around 1,500 m3/p/yr for countries with vegetarian diets. This suggests that the assumed level of water requirements of 1,300 m3/p/yr in this study is in fact a rather conservative value (3.6 m3/p/day).

Global water budget perspective Crop production in the global water budget The global water budget around 2000 is visualized in Figure 6.3, based on a literature survey of evapotranspiration (ET) from different terrestrial ecosystems 5RFNVWU|P et al. ,WVKRZVEOXHZDWHUÀRZDQGEOXHZDWHUZLWKGUDZDOV WKH ODWWHU SDUWLWLRQHG LQWR D FRQVXPSWLYH XVH DQG D UHWXUQ ÀRZ SDUW 7KH JUHHQ ZDWHU ÀRZLQJ WKURXJK FURSODQGV LQFRUSRUDWHV WKH FRQVXPSWLYH XVH IUDFWLRQ RI EOXHLUULJDWLRQZDWHUUHGLUHFWHGLQWRJUHHQZDWHUÀRZ 5RFNVWU|P et al. (2009) showed the degree to which the consumptive use of water in agriculture is dominated by green water in many irrigated regions.

Figure 6.3 Global-scale continental water balance and its estimated partitioning between green water resources in the soil and blue water resources in rivers and aquifers (source: SIWI 2008).

A constraint for global food production

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Generalizing, one might say that in Europe, Africa, and South America, crop production basically depends on green water, whereas the blue water component exceeds the green component only in irrigated regions in parts of South Asia and 1RUWK$PHULFD5DWKHUWKDQUHWDLQLQJWKHSDVWGLFKRWRP\EHWZHHQUDLQIHGDQG irrigated agriculture, it is in other words more adequate to refer to agriculture as irrigation-supported along a scale from zero to 100 percent support. Future food water requirements and options The projection by Lundqvist et al. (2007) arrived at a global water requirement by 2050 for the projected, income-related diets of altogether 10,500 km3/yr. In comparison, food water requirements for the 92 developing countries studied by 5RFNVWU|P et al. (2007) would increase to altogether 9,700 km3/yr. Table 6.1 summarizes a number of global projections of food water requirements as they are foreseen to grow until 2050, including some notes of different ways to cover the additional water needed. Assumptions of population growth GLIIHUEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWVWXGLHV$VVKRZQE\5RFNVWU|P et al. (2009), the TXLFNHU IHUWLOLW\ UHGXFWLRQ URXWH LQ WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 0HGLXP SURMHFWLRQ DV FRPSDUHGWRWKHFOLPDWHFKDQJH65(6$SURMHFWLRQZRXOGLPSO\DUHGXFWLRQRI food water requirement by some 2,000 km3/yr. When food water requirements increase beyond the production capacity on present croplands, the additional water may originate from four different sources: 1 2 3 4

cropland expansion to allocate green water from other land, rainwater harvesting on neighboring land for use as supplementary irrigation, productivity increase through loss reduction, and import, i.e. allocation of virtual water from exporting countries.

Productivity increase implies limiting water losses. In irrigated agriculture, HYDSRUDWLRQ ORVVHV IURP FDQDOV DQG RSHQ ZDWHU VXUIDFHV LQ WKH ¿HOG HJ ULFH SDGGLHV LQUDLQIHGDJULFXOWXUHZDWHUORVVHVLQWHUPVRIRYHUODQGÀRZE\FRQVHUYDWLRQ WLOODJH WR LQFUHDVH LQ¿OWUDWLRQ DQG DYRLG ÀDVK ÀRRGV DQG LQFUHDVH PXOFKLQJ WR LQFUHDVH ZDWHU KROGLQJ FDSDFLW\ DQG HYDSRUDWLRQ IURP RSHQ VRLO surfaces by so-called vapor shift, improving “crop per drop” of evapotranspired water. The fraction of rainfall that is used for productive transpiration is often OHVV WKDW SHUFHQW 5RFNVWU|P EXW YDULHV EHWZHHQ DJURHFRORJLFDO V\VWHPV DQG FDQ EH LQÀXHQFHG E\ PDQDJHPHQW ,Q VXE6DKDUDQ $IULFD IRU LQVWDQFH WKLV ¿JXUH YDULHV EHWZHHQ DQG SHUFHQW LQ WKH VHPLDULG ]RQH whereas, in the temperate regions transpiration is around 45–55 percent of rainfall. By shifting non-productive evaporation to productive transpiration through crop and soil management, more food can be produced with the same amount of green water. This vapor-shift based improvement in green water productivity is DQLPSRUWDQWRSSRUWXQLW\IRUODUJHZDWHUVDYLQJVDWWKH¿HOGOHYHOZKLFKDOORZV more food to be produced without impacting downstream water users.

trade scenario

IWMI (CA 2007) now 2050 5RFNVWU|P et al. 2009 now 2050

65(6$JOREDOFKDQJH YLUWXDOGH¿FLHQF\UHODWHGWR B + G = 1,300

croplands only

7,200 10,500

income-driven diets

Lundqvist et al. 2007 now 2045

8,800 14,200

7,130 9,000

4,500 9,700

92 developing countries

5RFNVWU|P et al. 2007 now 2050

Total consumptive water use km3/yr

Assumption

Consumptive use

Table 6.1 Different estimates of additional food water requirements

– +5,400

– (+1,800)

– +3,300

– +5,200

Additional needed km3/yr

virtual transfer 1,800

:3LPSURYHPHQW ORVVUHGXFWLRQ

:3LPSURYHPHQW LUULJ JUD]LQJ UDLQZFDSWXUH! H[SDQVLRQ!0KD

Options km3/yr

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%XWIRRGORVVHV±DOOWKHZD\WKURXJKWKHIRRGFKDLQIURP¿HOGWRIRUN±PXVW DOVR EH DGGUHVVHG ORVVHV LQ WKH ¿HOG LQVHFWV SODQW GLVHDVHV GXULQJ KDUYHVW during transport, in the market, and in the households (SIWI 2008). If such losses can be avoided, water requirements for food production would be limited to the actual food intake. This would bring down the water needs considerably, especially if the water-consuming meat content was reduced. Food loss reduction will however be a complex task and many different people, activities, and institutions would have to be involved.

Country-level perspective Current situation and green water reserve 7KH FRXQWU\EDVHG DQDO\VLV E\ 5RFNVWU|P et al. (2009) revealed considerable regional differences as seen from the aspect of water shortages (Table 6.2). Of particular interest is that many African countries that are conventionally seen as suffering from economic water scarcity (CA 2007) and often suffer from malnutrition and poverty, turn out to be quite rich in green water when estimated from HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ RQ FURSODQGV ([DPSOHV DUH 1DPLELD %RWVZDQD &KDG Zambia, Mozambique, and Sudan, which all have more than 7,000 m3/p/yr of green water availability. Interesting results were indicated in terms of the green water reserve and vapor VKLIW RSWLRQ 5RFNVWU|P et al. 2009). As noted, reduction of water losses would allow an increased production within the same evapotranspiration. Analysis of the productive fraction of the green water consumption has shown that large green

Table 6.2 Blue/green water availability differences by 2000. Blue + green (B + G) is overall water availability, Blue (B) is blue water availability only Group Characteristics A

B + G less than 1,300 m3/p/yr B less than 1,000 m3S\UZDWHUFURZGLQJRISÀRZXQLWRIPLOOLRQP3/yr) example: Israel, Iran, Pakistan, Pakistan

B

B + G more than 1,300 m3/p/yr B1 less than 1,000 m3/p/yr (more than 1,000 p/Mm3/yr) example: Morocco, Algeria, Uganda, Eritrea B2 less than 1,700 m3/p/yr (more than 600 p/Mm3/yr) example: Iraq, India, China, Ethiopia

C

B + G more than 1300 m3/p/yr G less than 1300 m3/p/yr example: Bangladesh

D

others example: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Tanzania, Mali

6RXUFH5RFNVWU|Pet al. 2009.

110 M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström ZDWHUORVVHVLQWHUPVRIXQSURGXFWLYHÀRZDUHIUHTXHQW,QRWKHUZRUGVWUDQVSLUDtion is far below the total ET from croplands. This means that a potential for vapor shift may occur by various measures to increase the crop yields within the same RYHUDOOFRQVXPSWLYHZDWHUXVHJUHHQZDWHUÀRZLHE\LQFUHDVLQJZDWHUSURGXFWLYity). Figure 6.4 shows the position of countries in terms of current productive use of available green water on croplands as compared to 600m3/p/yr, constituting the WUDQVSLUDWLRQ UHTXLUHG IRU IRRG VHOIVXI¿FLHQF\ 7KH KRUL]RQWDO D[LV VKRZV JUHHQ ZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\DQGWKHYHUWLFDOD[LVVKRZVWUDQVSLUDWLRQHI¿FLHQF\LHWUDQVSLUDtion as percent of total ET). Inside the 600 line are countries in which green water availability is not enough (utilizing current agricultural techniques) for them to be VHOIVXI¿FLHQWIURPUDLQIHGDJULFXOWXUH&RXQWULHVSRUWUD\HGDVQRUPDOO\VXEMHFWWR ZDWHU VKRUWDJH ZKHUH WKLV DQDO\VLV LQGLFDWHV VLJQL¿FDQW JUHHQ ZDWHU SRWHQWLDO WR produce more food (far away from the 600 line), include Kenya, Ethiopia, and Mali. The diagram also shows that many countries for which the green water availability is below the 600 line are, in fact, losing large quantities of green water through evaporation, suggesting a remaining potential to increase yields by increasing water productivity. The largest potential is available in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and – to a certain degree – also in China, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Israel. Global projections and water shortages 2050 In line with our aim at demonstrating the importance of the green water resource for food production, Figure 6.5 shows green/blue water availability by 2050, assessed by modeling future water availability and demand with due attention to

Figure 6.4 Assessment of transpiration versus available green water in the year 2000, EDVHG RQ HQYLURQPHQWDO SUHFRQGLWLRQV 5DWLR EHWZHHQ JUHHQ ZDWHU XVH DQG DYDLODELOLW\LHWUDQVSLUDWLRQHI¿FLHQF\YHUWLFDOD[LV FRPSDUHGZLWKJUHHQ water availability (horizontal axis). The solid line indicates a net water UHTXLUHPHQWIRUIRRGVHOIVXI¿FLHQF\DVWUDQVSLUDWLRQFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRP3 FDS\UZDWHUVRXUFH5RFNVWU|P et al. 2009).

A constraint for global food production

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FOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGSRSXODWLRQJURZWK5RFNVWU|P et al. 2009). The horizontal axis shows blue water availability, and the vertical axis shows blue and green added together. A considerable group of countries will fall below the 1,300 m3/p/ yr level (the upper diagonal line), i.e. having genuine water shortage even when adding green and blue water availability. This group encompasses countries in 1RUWK$IULFD:HVW$VLDDQG6RXWK$VLD&ORVHWRWKDWWKUHVKROGDUH&KLQD0DOL and Ethiopia, which have less than 1,500 m3/p/yr. For situations in which the green water resource alone does not meet the food water requirements, one has to look at the blue water resource. If blue water is, too scarce, irrigation is not a realistic alternative, especially in view of the need to conserve a certain amount of river discharge for the aquatic ecosystems (Figure 6.2). The water resource predicament can therefore be categorized by separating green and blue water shortages into categories a, b, c, and d (Table 6.3). This repeats the earlier message that many African countries are quite welloff, in terms of both blue and green water availability. )RRGZDWHUGH¿FLWLPSOLFDWLRQV Countries with less than 1,300 m3/p/yr green water availability and incapable of irrigation due to chronic blue water shortage, will have to import food from more water-abundant regions. Current food trade has been estimated to involve an amount of virtual water transfer of 1,140 km3/yr (Oki and Kanae 2003). Yang et al. (2003) have shown that food import tends to increase with increasing blue water shortage below 1,500 m3/p/yr. The order of magnitude of future food import is very GLI¿FXOW WR HVWLPDWH EXW IRRG ZDWHU GH¿FLWV PD\ RIIHU VRPH LQGLFDWLRQV 7KH authors have in a further analysis of the LPJ-based (Lund-Potsdam-Jena)

Figure 6.5 Country-level LPJmL-simulated per capita green plus blue water for the \HDU DVVXPLQJ ERWK FOLPDWH DQG GHPRJUDSKLF FKDQJH 65(6 $ SURMHFWLRQ 'DWDIURP5RFNVWU|P et al. 2009.

112 M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström Table 6.3 Some water shortage combinations foreseen by 2050 Blue

Green Green shortage < 1,300m3/p/yr

Green freedom > 1,300m3/p/yr

Blue shortage <1,000m3/p/yr

a Iran, Pakistan, Jordan Egypt, Ethiopia, India, China

b .\UJ\]VWDQ&]HFK5HSXEOLF Lesotho, South Africa

Blue freedom >1,000m3/p/yr

c -DSDQ%DQJODGHVK1RUWK .RUHD6RXWK.RUHD1LJHULD Togo

d Zimbabwe, Ghana, Angola, Botswana, Chad, Kenya, Mali, 1DPLELD6XGDQ7DQ]DQLD Zambia

projections (Falkenmark et al. DVVHVVHGWKHQHWZDWHUGH¿FLWVLHZDWHU GH¿FLWVEH\RQGZKDWFDQEHFRYHUHGE\WKHSRWHQWLDOIRUUHVSHFWLYHZDWHUSURductivity improvements and expanded irrigation) to altogether an estimated 3,260 km3/yr. Since the present food trade is primarily between the industrialized countries, this suggests more than a doubling of food trade until 2050. For comparison, in the Comprehensive Assessment of Water use in Agriculture (CA 2007) the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) foresees a total food trade corresponding to 1,800 km3/yr (Table 6.2). Countries with particularly large virtual import needs (more than 100 km3/yr) include India, Iran, and 3DNLVWDQ 7KH GRPLQDQW SDUW RI WKH QHW ZDWHU GH¿FLW LV IRXQG LQ ORZLQFRPH countries with low purchasing power and therefore low ability to pay for imported food. For them – representing a population altogether of respectively DQGELOOLRQIRUWKH$DQG81PHGLXPSURMHFWLRQV±FURSODQGH[SDQVLRQ may be a more plausible solution towards hunger abatement. However, expansion into land already used for pasture might not contribute more than approximately 400 km3\U OHDYLQJ D ZDWHU GH¿FLW RI DOWRJHWKHU ±NP3/yr unresolved.

Discussion and conclusions Food water analyses The aim of adding blue and green water availability (B+G) in the above analysis is to reassess the past dichotomy of irrigated versus rain-fed agriculture, especially since most of the water consumed – even in irrigated agriculture – is generally green water. It is the combination of these two forms of water that is relevant for food production. The analysis in this chapter can be seen as fairly UREXVW E\ GH¿QLQJ JUHHQ ZDWHU UHVRXUFH DV RQO\ (7ÀRZ RQ FURSODQGV ZKLFK includes permanent grazing lands). Thereby, we restrict the resource to water that is already under agriculture. In the analysis, more green water can be “grabbed” from other terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. grasslands, forests) by horizontal expansion (Figure 6.2).

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The blue water generation is calculated as the residual in the water balance. However, this version of the LPJmL-model excludes the blue water evaporation ORVVHV GXULQJ WKH ÀRZ WKURXJK WKH ODQGVFDSH 7KLV PHDQV WKDW LQ FHUWDLQ DULG UHJLRQVWKHEOXHZDWHUÀRZLVRYHUHVWLPDWHGDVFRPSDUHGWRUXQRIIPRGHOVFDOLEUDWHG DJDLQVW JDXJHG VWUHDP ÀRZ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV WKH PRGHO GRHV QRW GLVWLQguish between blue water generation and blue water availability, which has a VLJQL¿FDQWHIIHFWRQWKH1LOHEHFDXVHRIWKHKXJH\HDUURXQGHYDSRUDWLRQIURP WKH6XGGZHWODQGDUHDDQGIURPWKHVXUIDFHRI/DNH1DVVHU*HUWHQ et al. 2004). With current water productivity, FAO’s projected average food consumption by 2030 in developing countries of 3,000 kcal/p/d – fairly high as seen from a dietary perspective – gives a food water requirement of 1,300 m3/p/yr, assuming 20 percent animal protein. However, when compared to present dietary water use (Lundqvist et al. 2007), this level turns out to be a fairly moderate dietary water requirement by corresponding to average food water requirements at an income level of $10,000 per person and year. Food strategy options In spite of this conservative approach – limiting the green water resource while applying FAO’s fairly high calorie level – this green-blue strategy shows that most agriculture is currently supported by green water. The blue water contribution through irrigation is, in fact, fairly limited. Many countries show large green water losses in terms of unproductive evaporation (Figure 6.4) and could – as seen from a strict water perspective – increase their food production within the same consumptive use. Summarizing the outcome of this study, the world community will be meeting very severe water constraints in its efforts to eradicate hunger in line with the ¿UVWRIWKH0'*JRDOV)RUUHJLRQVLQZKLFKZDWHUVKRUWDJHVGRQRWDOORZUDLQ fed production of enough food for the population (water requirements beyond 100 percent of the green water resource), there are a set of options for achieving food security:

LUULJDWLRQ ZKHUH EOXH ZDWHU UHVRXUFH SHUPLWV LH FKURQLF ZDWHU VKRUWDJH does not hinder) may contribute some 400–500 km3\U LQVHPLDULGWURSLFVVRFDOOHGYDSRUVKLIWEHQH¿WLQJIURPWKHIDFWWKDWHYDSRration losses decrease when vegetation cover gets denser (i.e. evaporation IURPRSHQVRLODUHDVGHFUHDVHV 1RQSURGXFWLYHHYDSRUDWLRQFDQEHWXUQHG into productive transpiration. Such water productivity increase might contribute around 2,500 km3\U IRRGLPSRUWEHQH¿WLQJIURPJUHHQZDWHUUHVRXUFHLQWKHH[SRUWLQJUHJLRQ might in fact not contribute more than respectively 1,500/750 km3/yr for the WZRSRSXODWLRQVFHQDULRVGHHPLQJIURPWRGD\¶V*13VLWXDWLRQLQFRXQWULHV ODFNLQJDGHTXDWHZDWHU KRUL]RQWDO H[SDQVLRQ RI FURS ¿HOGV E\ ³JUDEELQJ´ JUHHQ ZDWHU IURP RWKHU ODQG1RQSHUPDQHQWSDVWXUHVPLJKWFRQWULEXWHVRPHNP3\U

114 M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström

UHGXFWLRQ RI IRRG VXSSO\ UHTXLUHPHQWV E\ EHWWHU GLVWULEXWLRQ RI IRRG LQ VRFLHW\ $ UHGXFWLRQ RI WKH PDVVLYH ORVVHV IURP ¿HOG WR IRUN LQ ZKLFK percent reduction has been suggested as feasible until 2050 (SIWI 2008), would reduce the food supply from 3,000 to 2,500 kcal/p/day.

The primary food security options will look different for different water shortage situations as indicated in Table 6.4, which also shows the percentage size of populations in the most critical regions (a and c) which host considerable populations. As earlier indicated, many African countries belong to categories b and d, and can make much better use of their green water resources. Concluding remarks :KLOHPRVWHDUOLHUVWXGLHVRQZDWHUDQGDJULFXOWXUHDWWKH5RVHQEHUJ6\PSRsium are blue-water based (Fereres, Chapter 2, this volume, and others), this chapter brings the food production issue back to basics by taking a full water perVSHFWLYHLQFOXGLQJDOVRLQ¿OWUDWHGUDLQZDWHULQWKHVRLOJUHHQZDWHU %XLOGLQJRQ WKHDVVHVVPHQWRIERWKEOXHDQGJUHHQZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\LQDOOFRXQWULHVE\5RFNVWU|P et al. (2009), it introduces a water shortage categorization of countries, concluding that water shortage – assuming slow fertility decline and climate change 65(6$SURMHFWLRQ ±ZRXOGE\KDYHJURZQLQWRDYHU\VHYHUHGLOHPPD for future food security for almost half the world population, particularly the UHJLRQVRI1RUWK$IULFDDQG:HVW6RXWKDQG(DVW$VLD7KXVDFRQVLGHUDEOHSDUW of the world population may by 2050 be living in countries that cannot expand irrigation much more, due to chronic blue water shortage. In those countries, water productivity increases, although essential, will not be large enough because they lack the ability to expand cropland (Barghouti 2009) and cannot cover the remainLQJZDWHUGH¿FLWE\LPSRUWXQOHVVSXUFKDVLQJSRZHULQFUHDVHVGUDPDWLFDOO\ The remaining question is, “What can be done to approach global food security?” Two things will be absolutely essential: productivity increases and limitation of population growth by accelerating fertility decline. Massive Table 6.4 Some policy implications Blue

Green Green shortage <1,300m3/p/yr

Green freedom >1,300m3/p/yr

Blue shortage <1,000m3/p/yr

a 46% of world pop KRUL]RQWDOH[SDQVLRQ IRRGLPSRUW UDGLFDOZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\ increase

b 14% of world pop XSJUDGLQJUDLQIHGDJULFXOWXUH rainwater harvesting

Blue freedom >1,000m3/p/yr

c 21% of world pop LUULJDWLRQH[SDQVLRQ

d 19% of world pop XSJUDGLQJUDLQIHGDJULFXOWXUH LUULJDWLRQ expansion

A constraint for global food production

115

dependence on food imports will make economic development directed towards non-water dependent socio-economic activities fundamental, i.e. developing commodities that cannot be produced in other regions (Barghouti 2009). Unless these activities are successful, countries will need to limit dietary expectations. In addition, the role of biomass in meeting energy demand has to be brought into the picture to get a proper hold on future water requirements for biomass production. Although modest at present, the contribution of biofuels to energy supply is expected to grow quickly (Berndes in Lundqvist et al. 2007). This means that the food crop competition for water by 2050will have to compete with other crops: crops for bioenergy production and non-food crops, like cotton. Continued food security research will be absolutely fundamental. In addition, national strategies will have to adapt to the foreseeable future dilemma of water constraints to future food production.

References %HQJWVVRQ 0 6KHQ < DQG 2NL 7 $ 65(6EDVHG JULGGHG JOREDO SRSXODWLRQ dataset for 1990–2100, Population and Environment, 28(2): 113–131. CA (2007) Water for Food, Water for Fife: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, D. Molden, IWMI (ed.), London/Colombo: Earthscan. )DONHQPDUN0DQG5RFNVWU|P- Balancing Water for Humans and Nature: The New Approach in Ecohydrology, London: Earthscan. )DONHQPDUN 0 DQG 5RFNVWU|P - 7KH QHZ JUHHQ DQG EOXH ZDWHU SDUDGLJP Breaking new ground for water resource planning and management, Journal of Water Resource Planning and Management, 123(3): 129–132. )DONHQPDUN 0 5RFNVWU|P - DQG .DUOEHUJ et al. (2009) Present and future water requirements for feeding humanity, Food Security, 1(1): 59–69. FAO (2003) World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030 an FAO Perspective, Jelle Bruinsma (ed.), London: Earthscan. Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S. (2004) Terrestrial vegetation and water balance: Hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, Journal of Hydrology, 286(1–4): 249–270. Lundqvist, J., Barron, J., Berndes, G., Berntell, A., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., and 5RFNVWU|P - :DWHU SUHVVXUH DQG LQFUHDVHV LQ IRRG DQG ELRHQHUJ\ GHPDQG ± implications of economic growth and options for decoupling, in Scenarios on Economic Growth and Resource Demand, Background report to the Swedish Environmental Agency Council memorandum 2007: 1, pp. 55–151. Mitchell, J.F.B., Jones, T.C., Gregory, J.M., and Teff, S.F.B. (1995) Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, Nature, 376: 501–504. 1DNLFHQRYLF 1 DQG 6ZDUW 5 HGV Special Report on Emission Scenarios, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Oki, T. and Kanae, S. (2003) Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, in Drainage basin security – Balancing production, trade and water use, abstract volume, pp. 341–344, Stockholm Water Symposium 2003, Stockholm International Water Institute 5RFNVWU|P- :DWHUIRUIRRGDQGQDWXUHLQGURXJKWSURQHWURSLFV9DSRXUVKLIWLQ rain-fed agriculture, Royal Society Transactions B. Biological Sciences, 358(1440): 1997–2009

116 M. Falkenmark and J. Rockström 5RFNVWU|P - )DONHQPDUN 0 .DUOEHUJ / +RII + 5RVW 6 DQG *HUWHQ ' Future water availability for global food production: The potential of green water for increasing resilience to global change, Water Resources Research, 45(4): W00A12. 5RFNVWU|P-*RUGRQ/)RONH&)DONHQPDUN0DQG(QJZDOO0 Linkages DPRQJZDWHUYDSRUÀRZVIRRGSURGXFWLRQDQGWHUUHVWULDOHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHVConservation Ecology, 3(2): 5, online, available at: www.consecol.org/ vol3/iss2/art5. 5RFNVWU|P-/DQQHUVWDG0DQG)DONHQPDUN0 $VVHVVLQJWKHZDWHUFKDOOHQJH of a new green revolution in developing countries, PNAS, 104(15): 6253–6260. SEI (2005) Sustainable Pathways to Attain the Millennium Development Goals: Assessing the Key Role of Water, Energy and Sanitation, Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute. SIWI (2008) Saving Water: From Field to Fork: Curbing Losses and Wastage in the Food Chain, SIWI Policy Brief 2008, Stockholm International Water Institute, online, available DW ZZZVLZLRUJGRFXPHQWV5HVRXUFHV3ROLF\B%ULHIV 3%B)URPB)LOHGBWRB)RUNB pdf.
7

Globalization of water resources through virtual water trade Hong Yang and Alexander J.B. Zehnder

Introduction With the continuous population growth and related developments, water resources have become increasingly scarce in a growing number of countries and regions in the world. As the largest water user, accounting for more than 80 percent of the global total water withdrawal, food production is directly affected by water scarcity. In many water-scarce countries, an increasing amount of food is being imported to meet the domestic food demand. For these countries, importing food is virtually equivalent to importing water that would otherwise be needed for producing the food locally. Allan (1993) termed the water embodied in food import as “virtual water.” In recent years, the concept of virtual water has been extended to refer to the water that is required for the production of agricultural commodities as well as industrial goods (Hoekstra and Hung 2005). Nevertheless, discussions on virtual water issues have so far focused primarily on food commodities, due to WKHLU ODUJH VKDUH LQ WRWDO ZDWHU XVH :LWK WKH LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ RI ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ LQ many areas of the world and looming impacts of climate change, the role of virtual water trade in balancing local water budget is expected to increase. 7KLV FKDSWHU H[DPLQHV JOREDO YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQWHUQDWLRQDO food trade. The role of the virtual water trade in redistributing global water resources and compensating for water scarcity is assessed, and opportunity costs of green and blue water uses and environmental impacts are discussed. The analysis is made on two dimensions: the global and country levels, and the exporting and importing countries.

9LUWXDOZDWHUÀRZVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQWHUQDWLRQDOIRRGWUDGH 4XDQWL¿FDWLRQRIYLUWXDOZDWHUÀRZV The amount of water required for producing a unit of crop is termed “virtual water content” (m3/kg). It is in essence the inversion of crop water productivity (kg/m3). Multiplying virtual water content of a crop by its trade quantity derives WKH YROXPH RI YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH WUDGH RI WKH FURS $OODQ (1997) estimated that the virtual water embodied in cereal imports into the

118 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder Middle Eastern and North African countries exceeded the total annual water use for food production in Egypt. Following Allan, many other studies have TXDQWL¿HGYLUWXDOZDWHUÀRZVDWYDULRXVJHRJUDSKLFDOOHYHOV+RHNVWUDDQG+XQJ 2005; Yang et al. 2003; Oki and Kanae 2004; Zimmer and Renault 2003; Fraiture et al. +RHNVWUD DQG +XQJ *OREDOO\ WKH YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZV between nations stood at about 1,000 km3/year at the turn of the last century (from the perspective of exporting countries), of which about 650 km3/year was attributed to crop-related trade. The volume of virtual water associated with food trade was about 15 percent of total water use in food production. 9DULDWLRQVDUH UDWKHU ODUJH LQ WKH HVWLPDWHG YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZV DW WKH JOREDO level as well as at the country level among different studies. The variations mainly stem from the inconsistency in the following four aspects: the value of YLUWXDO ZDWHU FRQWHQW XVHG LQ FDOFXODWLQJ YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZV WKH FRYHUDJH DQG aggregation of crops, the period considered, and the source of trade data. For WKHVHUHDVRQVWKHUHVXOWVIURPGLIIHUHQWVWXGLHVDUHRIWHQGLI¿FXOWWRFRPSDUH In the global food trade system, the volume of total food export is approximately equal to the volume of total food imports to achieve the market clearance. This is especially so when averaged over a period of time as the effect of yearly stock exchange is smoothed out. Concerning the global virtual water trade, however, this equilibrium does not apply. Crop water productivity, and virtual ZDWHUFRQWHQWLVDIXQFWLRQRIFOLPDWHFRQGLWLRQVDJURQRPLFSUDFWLFHVDQG¿HOG management. For a given crop, water productivity varies across regions. The virtual water “value” of a given amount of food may not be identical on the importing and exporting sides. When virtual water imports and exports for all the countries are summed up separately, a gap between the two volumes occurs. Table 7.1 shows the gross virtual water import and export at the global level estimated by Yang et al. (2006). The respective volumes are derived with the following procedures: The gross volume of virtual water import (GVWI) to a country is the sum of “crop imports” multiplied by their associated crop virtual water content in that country. Similarly, the gross volume of virtual water export (GVWE) from a country is the sum of “crop exports” multiplied by their associated crop virtual water content in that country. Equations for estimating the total global virtual water import (TGVWI) and total global virtual water export (TGVWE) are expressed as: N

TGVWI

TGVWE

C

£ £ GVWI n 1

c 1

N

C

£ £ GVWE n 1

(7.1)

n,c

n ,c

(7.2)

c 1

where N is the number of countries, C is the number of crops considered. Water saving/loss generated from the global total net virtual water trade (TNVWT) can be calculated as: TNVWT TGVWI TGVWE

(7.3)

318.8 53.5 97.3 55.1 104.9 351.1

980.7

Wheat Rice Maize Barley Soybean Others1

Total

Note 1 Others refer to other crops.

Source: Yang et al. 2006.

Global gross virtual water import (km3 year–1)

Crops

639.3

188.4 63.2 39.5 31.7 67.3 249.2

Global gross virtual water export (km3 year–1)

Table 7.1 Global virtual water import and export, average over 1997–2001

336.9

130.3 –10.1 57.4 20.1 37.1 101.9

Volume (km3 year–1)

Global water saving

34.3

40.9 –18.8 59.0 36.4 35.3 29.0

Ratio of virtual water saving to total virtual water import

120 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder The estimated total volume of virtual water export associated with the food crops is about 644 km3/year. The corresponding volume for import is 981 km3/ year. The difference is 337 km3/year. This volume is the global water saving resulting from the food trade. It means that this volume of additional water would otherwise be required if the imported amount of food were produced in the importing countries. At the global level, 34.3 percent of the water is “saved” in producing the traded volume of food through virtual water trade. For individual crops, the scale of “water saving” varies. For wheat and maize, the trade has resulted in a 41 percent and 59 percent reduction in the global water use in producing the traded amounts of the respective crops. The trading of these two crops contributes greatly to the total global water saving. An exception, however, is rice, for which the volume of virtual water embodied in rice export is larger than that in rice import. This implies that the rice production in the exporting countries requires more water than the production in the importing countries. 7KHZDWHUVDYLQJDFKLHYHGDWWKHJOREDOOHYHOUHÀHFWVDUHODWLYHO\KLJKZDWHU productivity in the major exporting countries. The study by Hoekstra and Hung (2005) shows that water productivity for the respective crops is generally high in North America and the Western European countries. Other countries with high water productivity include Argentina, China, Australia, and some countries in the Middle East. In contrast, water productivity is manifestly low in the poor sub-Saharan African countries. This situation is expected because the level of water productivity of a country is closely related to the agronomic practices and water management at both regional and farm levels. Efforts to raise water productivity are often associated with greater inputs and improved agronomic practices and water management, which are generally lacking in poor countries. The opposite situation for rice may partly be explained by the relatively high crop evapotranspiration in the major rice exporting countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand. 9LUWXDOZDWHUÀRZVDFURVVUHJLRQV As water productivity is generally lower in importing countries than in exporting countries, a given amount of food commodities is worth more virtual water in WKHIRUPHUWKDQLQWKHODWWHU7KLVOHDGVWRDQDPSOL¿FDWLRQRIYLUWXDOZDWHUÀRZV IURPVRXUFHWRGHVWLQDWLRQ)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVWKHDPSOL¿FDWLRQYLVXDOO\7KH QHW YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZV DUH YLHZHG IURP WKH H[SRUWLQJ DQG LPSRUWLQJ VLGHV respectively, for the 14 regions of the world. The net volume of virtual water export is the net export quantities multiplied by crops’ virtual water content in the corresponding exporting countries. The net volume of virtual water import is the net import quantities multiplied by crop virtual water content in the corresponding importing countries. The two volumes represent the virtual water “values” of a given amount of traded food commodity measured at source and destination. Each individual country’s net virtual water export/import is calcuODWHG¿UVW$OOWKHFRXQWULHVDUHWKHQJURXSHGLQWRUHJLRQV

The virtual water trade 121

WV Exporter Km3 N-America 73 30 22 17 12 27

Importer E-Asia C-America NW-Africa M-East W-Europe Others

WV Km3 149 64 58 55 17 71

WV Exporter Km3 S-America 30 21 18 12 15

Importer W-Europe E-Asia M-East NW-Africa Others

WV Km3 26 25 35 21 38

WV Exporter Km3 Importer Oceania 15 E-Asia 11 S+E-Asia 10 M-East 13 Others

WV Km3 20 24 14 24

Figure 7.1 9LUWXDOZDWHUÀRZVE\UHJLRQDYHUDJHIURPWR

North America, South America, and Oceania are the net exporting regions of virtual water. All other regions are net importers. East Asia, Central America, North and West Africa, and the Middle East are the major destinations of virtual water. It can be seen that the volumes of virtual water differ largely on the exporting and importing sides. For example, the volume of 73 km3 of virtual water exported from North America is worth 149 km3 of virtual water in East Asia. In the Middle East, the corresponding volumes are 17 km3 and 55 km3, respectively. One exception is the virtual water export from South America to Western Europe. The virtual water exported from South America is worth less in Western Europe because of the lower water productivity in the former region than in the latter. The estimations of virtual water trade are highly sensitive to the values of crop water productivity used in the estimation. The crudeness of the data can also affect the accuracy of the estimation. Therefore, the estimated volumes of virtual water trade here and in all other studies should be only viewed as approximations.

The role of virtual water in compensating for water scarcity While water scarcity has been at the center of virtual water discussion, it has been widely recognized that not all virtual water trade is driven by water scarcity (Yang et al. 2003; Fraiture et al. 2004; Oki and Kanae 2004). Japan is an example in

122 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder point. The country imports 75 percent of the cereals consumed domestically (FAO 2004). The import, however, has no direct relation with its water resources, which stood at 3,380 m3/capita in 2000. It is more the scarcity of land resources that shapes the country’s food import policies (Oki and Kanae 2004). 7R H[DPLQH WKH VLJQL¿FDQFH RI YLUWXDO ZDWHU WUDGH LQ FRPSHQVDWLQJ IRU ZDWHU scarcity, we divide all the net virtual water importing countries into three groups. The water threshold of 1,700 m3FDSLWD GH¿QHG E\ )DONHQPDUN DQG :LGVWUDQG (1992) is used as a scarcity indicator. A minimum of 2,500 m3/capita is set for nonwater scarce countries. This is based on the observation that above this level, a country is very unlikely to endure a nationwide physical water resources scarcity, although some regions may experience water stress. The countries with water resources availability between 1,700 m3/capita and 2,500 m3/capita are at the margin, which may or may not endure a widespread water scarcity. Table 7.2 shows the shares of the three country groups in total net virtual water import. The total net virtual water import of all net importing countries is around 715 km3 annually. Of this volume, about 20.4 percent occurs in the countries with water resources below 1,700 m3/capita, 11.5 percent is in the countries with water resources between 1,700 m3/capita and 2,500 m3/capita. The rest of 68.1 percent is LQWKHQRQZDWHUVFDUFHFRXQWULHV%DVHGRQWKHVH¿JXUHVRQHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDW water scarcity has a relatively limited role in shaping the global virtual water trade ÀRZV )RU GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV VXFK DV -DSDQ 6ZLW]HUODQG DQG ,WDO\ SXUVXLQJ comparative advantages would have been an important drive for food import (Fraiture et al. :DWHUVDYLQJSHUVHZRXOGEHRIOLWWOHEHQH¿WWRWKHP Nevertheless, for water-scarce countries importing food effectively reduces the domestic water use for food production. This reduced amount may be viewed as a “saving” of domestic water. For these countries, virtual water import plays an important role in balancing the water budget and alleviating water stress. Table 7.3 shows the net virtual water import in the Middle Eastern and North African countries (MENA). It can be seen that many of them have an extremely high ratio of virtual water import to renewable water resources. In Libya, the volume of virtual ZDWHULPSRUWLVPRUHWKDQ¿YHWLPHVLWVRZQDYDLODEOHZDWHUUHVRXUFHV Cereal import takes the lion’s share in total virtual water import in the MENA countries, except for Syria and Turkey. For the region as a whole, about 67 percent of the virtual water import is attributed to cereal, 27 percent to vegetable oil, and about 10 percent to sugar. The volume of virtual water embodied in the export of fruits and vegetables is small. This is partly due to relatively low virtual water content of these crops.

“Green” versus “blue” water in agricultural production and virtual water trade *UHHQDQGEOXHZDWHULQIRRGSURGXFWLRQ Rainwater that falls on a watershed could be partitioned into “green” and “blue” ZDWHU7KHFRQFHSWRIJUHHQZDWHUZDV¿UVWLQWURGXFHGE\)DONHQPDUN WR

100

Percentage of total net virtual water import

20.4

11.5

82.1

715

Total net virtual water import (km3/year)

145.8

Countries with water availability between 1,700 and 2,500 m3/capita

Total Countries with water availability below 1,700 m3/capita

Table 7.2 Net virtual water import by country groups, average of 1997–2001 (viewed from the importing side)

68.1

487.1

Countries with water availability larger than 2,500 m3/capita

7,540 439 10,049 2,701 1,250 834 2,214 3,945 –315 3,486 622 32,765

Algeria Cyprus Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Libya Morocco Syria Tunisia Turkey Sum of the regions

Note 1 Includes meat.

Cereal import

Country

2,418 71 2,840 436 326 274 729 1935 553 1019 2,447 13,048

Vegetable oil import 1,276 45 1,006 430 248 188 248 695 809 411 –451 4,905

Sugar import –10 1 124 40 120 –18 –138 109 76 60 371 735

Vegetable export –99 28 44 63 –18 48 –13 121 28 12 647 861

Fruit export

Table 7.3 Net virtual water import in MENA countries (million m3) (1998–2002)

11,342 526 13,727 364 1,722 1,266 3,343 6,344 943 4,845 1,600 46,022

Sum of net virtual water import 1 79.21 67.47 23.55 207.40 195.69 28.73 557.09 21.88 3.59 96.91 0.07 13.26

Net virtual water import as a percentage of water resources

The virtual water trade 125 UHIHU WR WKH UHWXUQ ÀRZ RI ZDWHU WR WKH DWPRVSKHUH DV HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ (7 which includes a productive part as transpiration (T) and a non-productive part as direct evaporation (E) from the surfaces of soils, lakes, ponds, and from water intercepted by canopies. Later, green water has been generally used to refer to the water stored in the unsaturated soils (Savenije 2000). Green water is the water source of rainfed agriculture. Blue water refers to the water in rivers, lakes, reservoirs, ponds, and aquifers (Rockström et al. 1999). Irrigated agriculture typically uses blue water as a supplement to rainfall. Earlier studies of water-food-trade relations had mainly focused on addressing constraint of blue water scarcity on irrigated agriculture. Recent years have seen a growing attention on rainfed systems that rely on green water stored in unsaturated soils (Falkenmark and Rockström 2006). Green and blue water have different characteristics, leading to different opportunity cost of the use of these resources. Table 7.4 summarizes some of the features of green and blue water. Green water comes from rainfall. It is a “free good” in terms of supply. Plants other than food crops (which often have lower direct economic value of water use) are the major competitive users of this water (Yang and Zehnder 2002). Compared with blue water, the opportunity cost of green water use is lower. In contrast, blue water has many functions. Irrigation often yields the lowest economic value among all the functions (Zehnder et al. 2003). Thus, the opportunity cost of irrigation water is high. Meanwhile, blue water requires facilities for storage and distribution before it can be delivered to users. The supply of water involves cost. Moreover, excessive irrigation can cause severe salinization, water logging, and soil degradation, which are evident in many areas of the world (Postel 1999). From the viewpoint of opportunity cost of the use of water resources, trading green virtual water is overall more HI¿FLHQWWKDQWUDGLQJEOXHYLUWXDOZDWHUKROGLQJRWKHUIDFWRUVFRQVWDQW The ratio of irrigated areas to total crop areas indicates the dependence of a country’s agricultural production on blue water. In major food-exporting countries, especially Canada, France, Australia, and Argentina, the irrigation ratio is Table 7.4 Characteristics of the Blue and Green water Type of water

Blue

Green

Sources

rivers, lakes, reservoirs, ponds, aquifers

water that is stored in the unsaturated soil and can be used for evapotranspiration

Mobility

highly mobile

highly immobile

Substitution of sources

possible

impossible

Competitive uses

many

few

Conveyance facilities

required

not required

Cost of use

high

low

126 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder low. Food production in these countries is dominantly rainfed. This means that food-exporting countries generally export their green virtual water. In foodimporting countries, irrigation ratio varies widely. Many water-scarce food-importing countries have a high dependence on blue water for agricultural production. This is not surprising, given the close links between low precipitation, need for irrigation, and the demand for virtual water import. For water-scarce countries, the opportunity cost of irrigation is high, as there are many competing uses. However, the high opportunity cost is often taken as a trade-off for easing other more pressing concerns, typically food security, rural employment, and political stability (Wichelns 2001). It is also noticed that in many poor countries, the irrigation ratio is low, irrespective of their water UHVRXUFHV7KLVVLWXDWLRQLVQRGRXEWUHODWHGWRWKHODFNRI¿QDQFLDOFDSDFLW\LQ these countries to bring blue water into irrigation. 3URSRUWLRQRIEOXHDQGJUHHQZDWHULQJOREDOYLUWXDOZDWHUWUDGH Figure 7.2 shows the blue and green virtual water proportion in the seven largest food-exporting countries. These countries account for about 80 percent of the total net virtual water export. It can be seen that the proportion of the blue virtual water export in these countries is considerably small. In Canada, it is negligible. This means that the global virtual water export is overwhelmingly “green.” Exporting green water constitutes a lower opportunity cost in water use as opposed to irrigated food production, holding other factors constant. It should be noted that green and blue waters are not completely independent in the hydrological cycle. For example, changes in land use can affect the green and blue water partitioning in a watershed (Rockström et al. 1999). Also, there

Figure 7.2 Net blue and green virtual water export in major exporting countries: average from 1997 to 2001.

The virtual water trade 127 are “grey areas,” such as water harvesting, in which deliberate local interventions are made to capture local runoff. The separation of green and blue water resources here is mainly for illustrating the opportunity cost of the water use in irrigated and rainfed production and the virtual water trade associated with the different water uses.

(IIHFWVRIWKHYLUWXDOZDWHUWUDGHRQZDWHUXVHHI¿FLHQF\LQ source and destination countries ,PSDFWRQLPSRUWLQJFRXQWULHV Virtual water import effectively reduces the water use for food production in food importing countries. For the countries in which water resources are scarce, virtual water import helps alleviate water stress. For many of them, it has been often cheaper and less ecologically destructive to import food, especially the water-intensive cereal crops, than to transport water to produce the same commodity locally (Qadir et al. 2003). Over the last 30 years, prior to 2006, the world prices for major cereal crops had declined by about 50 percent (Yang et al. :DWHU GH¿FLHQW FRXQWULHV KDG EHHQ DEOH WR DFFHVV YLUWXDO ZDWHU DW DGYDQWDJHRXVSULFHV+RZHYHUUHFHQW\HDUVKDYHZLWQHVVHGDVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVH in food prices in the world market. The price increases pose a disincentive to food import. The rapid expansion of the bioenergy industry has been widely considered to be partly responsible for the food price hikes. It can be expected that IXWXUH HQHUJ\ SROLFLHV LQ PDMRU IRRGH[SRUWLQJ FRXQWULHV ZLOO KDYH VLJQL¿FDQW impacts on the future food price and food trade of the world. For poor countries with abundant water resources, however, viewing food import from a water-saving perspective is not meaningful. For these countries, agriculture is an important economic sector, and a large proportion of the popuODWLRQ UHOLHV RQ IDUPLQJ IRU OLYLQJ 7KH ÀX[ RI IRRG LPSRUW WR WKHVH FRXQWULHV often undermines local food production, as farmers cannot compete with the cheap and often subsidized food surpluses from the major exporting countries. Food dumping to poor countries depresses local prices and reduces domestic production (Rosegrant et al. 2002). Poor and small farmers are hit the most. In this case, virtual water import could be detrimental to the local food security. ,QFUHDVLQJIRRGSURGXFWLRQE\EHWWHUDJURQRPLFSUDFWLFHVDQG¿HOGPDQDJHPHQW including bringing water resources into use, is of importance for these countries to improve the rural income and livelihood (Rockström et al. 1999; Rosegrant et al. 2002). 7KHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWRIYLUWXDOZDWHUWUDGHRQH[SRUWLQJ FRXQWULHV Food-exporting countries are the source of virtual water. They are imperative players in the international virtual water trade. However, previous studies of virtual water issues have focused overwhelmingly on food-importing countries.

128 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder Little attention has been paid to food-exporting countries concerning their water HQGRZPHQWV DQG UHVRXUFH XVH HI¿FLHQF\ DV ZHOO DV HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWV associated with the virtual water export (Merrett 2003). With the virtual water trade increasingly being emphasized in the global effort to combat regional water scarcity, the issues relating to exporting countries deserve much more attention. As elaborated earlier, crop water productivity in major food-exporting countries is generally higher than in many food-importing countries. This is partly because the former have higher inputs, including fertilizers and pesticides, in food production. In the United States, for example, the average fertilizer application is about 140 kg/ha, compared to the average of around 100 kg/ha in the developing countries (FAO 2004). In many exporting countries, the excessive application of fertilizers and pesticides is rapidly becoming a major environmental hazard (Zehnder et al. 2003). What is not clear, though, is how much of the high crop water productivity in the major exporting countries is due to better PDQDJHPHQWDQGHI¿FLHQWXVHRIZDWHUUHVRXUFHV Although food production, especially cereal production, in the major exportLQJFRXQWULHVLVGRPLQDWHGE\UDLQIHGDJULFXOWXUHDVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVHLQLUULgation has been evident in some of these countries. In France, Australia, and Brazil, for example, the increase between the early 1980s and the late 1990s was more than 50 percent. In the United States, the rate was more than 11 percent (FAO 2004). Overexploitation of water resources has occurred in many regions of these countries. In the central and western United States, for example, many rivers and aquifers have been over-exploited, causing serious regional water resources depletion and environmental degradation (Postel 1996; Gleick 2003). It is estimated that under the business-as-usual scenario, an increase in irrigation water supply of about 17 percent would be needed worldwide to meet the demand for food in the coming 25 years (Rijsberman 2002). Although most of the increase would be in food-importing countries, an expansion in irrigated areas in food-exporting countries could also be expected as a result of the increasing demand for their virtual water. This could aggravate the regional water resource depletion and environmental degradation in foodexporting countries on the one hand, and increase the opportunity costs of the virtual water trade on the other. 7KH DERYH DQDO\VLV VXJJHVWV D FRPSOH[LW\ LQ DVVHVVLQJ WKH ZDWHU XVH HI¿ciency in the virtual water trade when the perspective is extended to non-water scarce countries and to the exporting countries. Much more research is needed to address the trade-offs between gains and losses in the global virtual water trade for supporting policy making.

The virtual water strategy in integrated water resources management It is rather ironic that virtual water studies so far have been mostly carried out by scholars outside of water-scarce countries. The discussion on the relevant

The virtual water trade 129 issues has been, overall, rare within water-scarce countries. One of the major reasons has been the skepticism to the reliance on food import. However, YLUWXDO ZDWHU WUDGH GRHV QRW KDYH WR EH FRQ¿QHG WR WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO IRRG trade. For a given country, especially a large country, resource endowments, LQFOXGLQJ ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV FDQ YDU\ VLJQL¿FDQWO\ DFURVV UHJLRQVSURYLQFHV This fact renders a possibility to apply the virtual water strategy within a country to alleviate regional water stress. More importantly, at the country DQG VXEFRXQWU\ OHYHO VRFLDO HFRQRPLF IDFWRUV DQG ORFDO VSHFL¿F FRQGLWLRQV can be addressed more pertinently in assessing the applicability of the virtual water strategy. As elaborated earlier, implementing the virtual water strategy can be an effective way to alleviate water scarcity in a country and region. Within the agricultural sector, shifting from low-water-use value crops to high-water-use value crops, and/or concentrating the production of a given crop to the areas where the water productivity for that crop is high, could also improve the RYHUDOO ZDWHU XVH HI¿FLHQF\ LQ WKH VHFWRU 7KH IHDVLELOLW\ RI LPSOHPHQWLQJ such a strategy, however, must be assessed against other alternatives and factors relating to natural, socio-economic, environmental, and political conditions, and other regional and national objectives. It is important to emphasize here that the virtual water strategy does not exclude other options. Instead, it can be implemented in conjunction with other alternatives. Using the North China Plain as an example, options in dealing with the water scarcity at least include: increasing water supply by transferring water into the region, desalinating seawater, reusing treated wastewater, and transferring virtual water into the region to release irrigation water for other more bene¿FLDO XVHV 7KH WZR RSWLRQV DUH DSSDUHQWO\ QRW H[FOXVLYH EXW FDQ EH LPSOHmented at the same time. Traditional water resources management was primarily conducted within administrative boundaries. Recent years have seen a paradigm shift to emphasize catchment and river basin perspectives (Zehnder et al. 2003; Molden and Bos 2005). The consideration of virtual water further extends the scope of water resources management beyond the boundary of natural watershed. Since WKHZDWHUXVHRIDJLYHQZDWHUVKHGFDQEHLQÀXHQFHGE\ZDWHUXVHRXWVLGHRI WKH ZDWHUVKHG WKURXJK YLUWXDO ZDWHU WUDQVIHUV LW LV QRW VXI¿FLHQW WR FRQ¿QH water resources management to the basin or catchment scale.

Summary 7KLVFKDSWHUSURYLGHVDQDVVHVVPHQWRIYLUWXDOZDWHUÀRZVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKJOREDO IRRG WUDGH DQG GLVFXVVHV WKH ZDWHU XVH HI¿FLHQF\ HPERGLHG LQ VXFK WUDGH 7KH characteristics of green and blue water and their proportions in the global virtual water trade are elaborated. At the global level, the volume of food crop-related virtual water trade is about 650 km3/year when viewed from the exporting perspective, and 1,000 km3/ year when viewed from the importing perspective. The difference is the result

130 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder of generally higher water productivity in exporting countries in comparison to importing countries. Cereals account for a large share of the total virtual water trade. Globally, the volume of virtual water associated with food crop trade is about 15 percent of the total water use in food crop production. 7KHTXDQWL¿FDWLRQRIYLUWXDOZDWHUHPERGLHGLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOIRRGWUDGH provides insights into the role of virtual water in redistributing (virtually) the global water resources. It is useful in raising public awareness of water resources and environmental impacts through addressing virtual water embodied in the commodities they consume. For water-scarce countries, virtual water LPSRUWSOD\VDQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQDOOHYLDWLQJORFDOZDWHUGH¿FLHQF\+RZHYHU for water-abundant countries, viewing virtual water from water saving per se is little meaningful. Major food-exporting countries overall have a low-irrigation intensity. The contribution of irrigation to food production is relatively small. The global YLUWXDO ZDWHU WUDGH LV GRPLQDWHG E\ JUHHQ ZDWHU 6XFK D WUDGH LV HI¿FLHQW LQ terms of opportunity cost of water use. However, the high-water productivity in the major exporting countries is partly due to the high inputs of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. The environmental impacts have been high. It should be pointed out that the current global food trade is primarily among the countries with middle and high incomes. The low-income countries have much less participation in global food trade. Among many reasons, low income and consequently the low ability to exploit natural resources and invest in agriFXOWXUHDUHODUJHO\UHVSRQVLEOH7KHODFNRI¿QDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVDOVRGHSULYHVWKH poor countries’ choice of purchasing food from the international market when the domestic food supply is in shortage. Therefore, one should be cautious about expecting miracles from the virtual water trade in addressing the food security problems in poor countries. Greater efforts, particularly agricultural technologies and investment, should be devoted to the development of rainfed agriculture in these countries to improve food security. Given the increasing scarcity of the global blue water resources, more effectively utilizing green water may also have to be a direction to which the world agriculture will pursue in the future.

References Allan, J.A. (1993) Fortunately there are substitutes for water otherwise our hydropolitical futures would be impossible, in ODA(ed.), Priorities for Water Resources Allocation and Management, London: Overseas Development Administration, pp. 13–26. Allan, J.A. (1997) “Virtual Water”: A Long Term Solution for Water Short Middle Eastern Economies? Occasional Paper, SOAS Water Issues Group, London: King’s &ROOHJHRQOLQHDYDLODEOHDWZZZVRDVDFXNZDWHULVVXHVSDSHUV¿OHSGI Falkenmark, M. (1995) Land-water linkages – A synopsis, Land and Water Integration and River Basin Management, FAO Land and Water Bulletin, No. 1, pp. 15–16, Rome: FAO, online, available at: www.fao.org/docrep/v5400e/v5400e06.htm.

The virtual water trade 131 Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J. (2006) The new blue and green water paradigm: Breaking new ground for water resources planning and management, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 132(3): 129–132. Falkenmark, M. and Widstrand, C. (1992) Population and water resources: a delicate balance, Population Bulletin, 47(3): 1–36. FAO (2004) Database of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN, online, available at: www.fao.org/nr/water/. Fraiture, C., Cai, X., Amarasinghe, U., Rosegrant, M., and Molden, D. (2004) Does International Cereal Trade Save Water? The Impact of Virtual Water Trade on Global Water Use, Comprehensive Assessment Research Report 4, Colombo: International Water Management Institute. Gleick, P. (2003) Global freshwater resources: Soft path’s solution to 21st-century water needs, Science, 320(5650): 1524–1528. Hoekstra, A.Y. and Hung, P.Q. (2005) Globalization of water resources: International YLUWXDO ZDWHU ÀRZV EHWZHHQ QDWLRQV LQ UHODWLRQ WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO FURS WUDGH Global Environmental Change, 15(1): 45–56. Merrett, S. (2003) Virtual water – A discussion – Virtual water and Occam’s razor, Water International, 28(1): 103–105. Molden, D. and Bos, M.G. (2005) Improving basin water use in linked agricultural, HFRORJLFDODQGXUEDQV\VWHPV6HHNLQJQHZÀRZSDWKVDQGDYRLGLQJGHDGHQGVWater Science and Technology, 51(8): 147–154. Oki, T. and Kanae, S. (2004) Virtual water trade and world water resources, Water Science and Technology, 49(7): 203–209. Postel, S. (1996) Dividing the Waters: Food Security, Ecosystem Health, and the New Politics of Scarcity, Washington, DC: World Watch Institute. Postel, S. (1999) Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last? New York: Norton. Qadir, M., Boers, T.M., Schubert, S., Ghafoor, A., and Murtaza, G. (2003) Agricultural water management in water-starved countries: Challenges and opportunities, Agricultural Water Management, 62(3): 165–185. Rijsberman, F. (2002) Troubled water, water troubles: Overcoming an important constraint to food security, in Sustainable food security for all by 2020, Proceedings of an International Conference, 4–6 September, Bonn, online, available at: www.ifpri.org/ publication/sustainable-food-security-all-2020. Rockström, J., Gordon, L., Falkenmark, M., Folke, C., and Engvall, M. (1999) Linkages DPRQJZDWHUYDSRUÀRZVIRRGSURGXFWLRQDQGWHUUHVWULDOHFRV\VWHPVVHUYLFHVConservation Ecology, 3(2): 1–28, online, available at: www.consecol.org/vol3/ iss2/art5. Rosegrant, M., Cai, X., and Cline, S. (2002) World water and food to 2025, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Savenije, H.H.G. (2000) Water scarcity indicators: the deception of the numbers, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth (B), 25(3): 199–204. Wichelns, D. (2001) The role of virtual water in efforts to achieve food security and other national goals, with an example from Egypt, Agricultural Water Management, 49(2): 131–151. Yang, H. and Zehnder, A.J.B. (2002) Water scarcity and food import: A case study for southern Mediterranean countries, World Development, 30(8): 1413–1430. Yang, H., Reichert, P., Abbaspour, K.C., and Zehnder, A.J.B. (2003) A water resources threshold and its implications for food security, Environmental Science and Technology, 37(14): 3048–3054.

132 H. Yang and A.J.B. Zehnder Yang, H., Wang, L., Zehnder, A.J.B., and Abbaspour, K.C. (2006) Virtual water trade: an DVVHVVPHQWRIZDWHUXVHHI¿FLHQF\LQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOIRRGWUDGHJournal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10(3): 443–454. Zehnder, A.J.B., Yang, H., and Schertenleib, R. (2003) Water issues: The need for actions at different levels, Aquatic Sciences, 65(1): 1–20. Zimmer, D. and Renault, D. (2003) Virtual water in food production and global trade: Review of methodological issues and preliminary results, in A.Y. Hoekstra (ed.), Virtual Water Trade: Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Chapter 5, Delft: UNESCO-IHE.

Part IV

Water for the environment

8

Balancing water for people and nature Uriel Safriel

“Nature” is made up of ecosystems, most of which are affected in varying degrees by humans. The biodiversity of all ecosystems is intimately involved in SURYLGLQJEHQH¿WVWRSHRSOH7KHVHEHQH¿WVDUHUHIHUUHGWRDVHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHV 'HYHORSPHQW WKDW FRPSURPLVHV ELRGLYHUVLW\ UHGXFHV WKH ÀRZ RI HFRV\VWHP services required for sustainability; thus development can contribute to its own demise. Agricultural development, especially in drylands, is driven by water resource development which results in the transformation of ecosystems (such as grassland and woodland ones) into cultivated ecosystems. Concomitant with this transformation is a trade-off of ecosystem services through which water provision is enhanced while soil conservation, biodiversity support, and cultural services are compromised. Although water is critical for ecosystem functions that support people and contribute to their well-being, biodiversity, which helps to provide these functions, needs space and protection from disturbance and SROOXWLRQ PRUH WKDQ LW QHHGV ZDWHU ,Q HYDOXDWLQJ WKH EHQH¿WV RI SURSRVHG development projects against the cost of lost biodiversity and hence ecosystem services, externalities due to trade-offs in ecosystem services must be included. This requires, bridging the knowledge gaps about the role of biodiversity in the provision of water-related ecosystem services, and prudence in land appropriation by irrigated agriculture and urban sprawl.

Introduction The recognition that “nature” needs water, just as people do, is widespread today. Yet the notion that people need nature (for more than just recreation) just as they need water is relatively new (e.g. Balmford et al. 2002). This chapter argues that (a) nature has survival value for people, and much of this value lies in nature’s role in water provision; (b) in order to provide water as well as other FUXFLDOEHQH¿WVWRSHRSOHQDWXUHQHHGVZDWHUWRRWKXVLWVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGD legitimate water-user or “customer”; and (c) even more than water, nature needs space, used as habitat for biodiversity, indispensable for human life. This chapter ¿UVWH[SODLQVKRZHFRV\VWHPVWKURXJKWKHLUELRGLYHUVLW\DUHLQYROYHGLQSURYLGing water to people. It then explores how water resource development, through promoting agricultural expansion that reduces biodiversity’s habitat space, can

136 U. Safriel interfere with, rather than assist in, this ecosystem service of water provision. Finally, means to bridge gaps in knowledge, but also measures for mitigating FRQÀLFWVDQGVWULNLQJDEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHQHHGVRIQDWXUHDQGWKRVHRISHRSOH are recommended.

Nature, ecosystems, biodiversity, and services Nature and ecosystems “Nature” is an elusive term that can mean everything or nothing. In the 1970s, a three-year program, titled “The Structure and Function of Ecosystems,” was launched under the International Biological Program (IBP). Research sites were to be set in “natural” areas only. But people quickly realized that, even the most seemingly pristine ecosystem – for example the Arctic tundra – is no longer ³QDWXUDO´ 7KLV UHDOL]DWLRQ KLW WKH VFLHQWL¿F FRPPXQLW\ PRUH WKDQ D JHQHUDWLRQ ago, and current trends of rapid population growth and humanity’s ever-larger ecological footprint only strengthen it further. Similarly, the notion that our nature reserves, national parks, and other “protected areas” conserve nature in its pristine state is outdated, especially when many conservation measures themselves are “un-natural” interventions. All of these observations underline the point that, as an analytical category “nature” now means very little (see Descola and Pálsson 1996). On the other hand, the Man and the Biosphere (MAB) program, which succeeded the IBP, shaped the “Biosphere Reserve” concept of protected areas, in which a gradient of naturalness and a gradient of development are seen to go in opposite directions, from small core areas under strict conservation with no human use to a larger periphery of much human use and little conservation (IUCN 1998). Thus, the Biosphere Reserve strikes a balance between “nature” and “non-nature,” or “environment” and “development,” and represents an alternative and intermediate view to the notion that nature is either nowhere or everywhere. More recently, however, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) has developed the idea that “nature,” or “the environment,” is everywhere DQG WKDW QDWXUDO SURFHVVHV VLJQL¿FDQW WR SHRSOH RFFXU ERWK LQ WKH PRVW SULVWLQH environments on earth as well as throughout the rest of the globe – even where human impact is strongest. This notion replaces “nature” and “environment” with the term “ecosystem,” whereby ecosystems differ, among other things, in the amount of “nature” they are thought to encompass. The term “ecosystem,” coined by practitioners of the life sciences, applies to a landscape unit comprising all the organisms and the physical and chemical attributes of that landscape, many of which affect, are affected by, or interact with the organisms in that landscape unit. The “function” or “functioning” of the HFRV\VWHPLVGH¿QHGDVSURYLGLQJWKHZKROHQHWZRUNRILQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQLWV YDULRXV FRPSRQHQWV 7KLV GH¿QLWLRQ LV QRW QHZ EXW WKH 0$ ZDV LQQRYDWLYH LQ determining that besides ecosystems such as forests, drylands and wetlands, cultivated and urban areas, are treated as ecosystems too (MA 2005). This DSSURDFKUHÀHFWVWKHUHFRJQLWLRQWKDWPRVWHFRV\VWHPVRQHDUWKDUHDIIHFWHGDQG

Balancing water for people and nature 137 managed by humans to a certain extent, either actively or passively, deliberately or unintentionally, whereas all cultivated and urban ones are actively and intensively managed by people. These and other actively managed ecosystems now constitute more than half of the ice-free surface of the earth (37 percent of which are taken by cultivated ecosystems, FAO 1995). Ecosystems and ecosystem services Ever since the launch of the IBP program, the notion that ecosystems provide “goods” (often marketable) and generate “services” (invaluable but priceless) has acquired greater appeal. It is often implied that, although these goods and services are provided by both human-managed and “natural” ecosystems, those of the latter are provided free (e.g. goods such as food or medicinal plants, and services such as soil regeneration or aquifer recharge), thus contributing to the sustainability of actively managed ecosystems and promoting human well-being. It was then inferred that, where “natural” ecosystems are impacted by humans DQGWKHSURYLVLRQRIWKHLUJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVLVLPSDLUHGWKHVHEHQH¿WVFDQEH UHSODFHGE\DUWL¿FLDOPHDQV6XFKPHDQVKRZHYHUWXUQRXWWREHH[SHQVLYHDQG inferior to ecosystem-provided goods and services (Cohen and Tilman 1996; Daily et al. 1997). It was also observed that, because natural ecosystems provide JRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVDWQRLPPHGLDWH¿QDQFLDOFRVWWKHLUYDOXHLVXQGHUHVWLPDWHG or overlooked (Perrings 1995), resulting in an unintentional degradation of these ecosystems and impairment of their service provision. It was therefore proposed WKDW IRU SHRSOH WR EHQH¿W IURP HFRV\VWHPV¶ JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV WKRVH EHQH¿WV must be recognized, understood, and protected (Costanza et al. 1997). 7KH0$GUDPDWLFDOO\UHYLVHGWKHVHQRWLRQVLQVHYHUDOZD\V)LUVWLWGH¿QHG ³HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV´ DV ³EHQH¿WV SHRSOH REWDLQ IURP HFRV\VWHPV´ WKXV GRLQJ away with the distinction between “goods” and “services” and incorporating the JRRGVLQWRWKHVHUYLFHVZKLFKZHUHFODVVL¿HGLQWRIRXUPDMRUIXQFWLRQDOJURXSV (Figure 8.1). The provisioning services refer to the “goods” produced by ecosystems, like food (mostly provided by cultivated ecosystems but also by “natural” ones, as in the case of seafood) or freshwater, which is provided but not produced by ecosystems. The regulating servicesDUHWKHEHQH¿WVREWDLQHGIURP regulation of ecosystem processes, including the regulation of surface runoff by YHJHWDWLRQRUWKHSXUL¿FDWLRQRIZDWHUWKURXJKWKHDFWLRQRIRUJDQLVPVLQIUHVKwater ecosystems. The cultural services FRQVWLWXWH WKH QRQPDWHULDO EHQH¿WV obtained from ecosystems, such as the recreation options that are often so highly valued when provided by freshwater ecosystems, as well as the spiritual and aesthetic values that many ecosystems provide. The supporting services, which are critical for the provision of all other services, derive from basic ecosystem functions such as primary production, which generate the material basis for all life on earth; nutrient cycling, which is tightly linked to primary production; and VRLOIRUPDWLRQDQGFRQVHUYDWLRQZKLFKDUHYLWDOLQWKHLQ¿OWUDWLRQRIUDLQZDWHUWR aquifers. Finally, there is the service of supporting the biodiversity that is involved in the provision of all ecosystem services.

138 U. Safriel

Figure 8.1 Ecosystem services (after MA 2005).

Ecosystems services and biodiversity Biota and biodiversity An indispensable component of every ecosystem is its biota, meaning all living organisms that inhabit it: the microorganisms, plant, and animal species. Each of these may be involved in one way or another – directly and indirectly – in ecosystem functions, most of which somehow serve people. Thus, the biota as a whole is involved in the provision of ecosystem services. But what is critical to the quality and sustainability of this provision is not just the dimensions of the biota (i.e. the number of species and the abundance of each), but mainly the diversity within it (i.e. the degrees by which these species differ from each other, e.g. Lambeck 1999). The term biodiversity thus has a deeper meaning than biota LQWKHVHQVHWKDWZKLOHWKH³ELRWD´VLJQL¿HVDPHUHVWUXFWXUDOFRPSRQHQWRIWKH ecosystem “biodiversity” mainly addresses the functionality of the biota in the provision of ecosystem services (e.g. Loreau et al. 2001). ³%LRGLYHUVLW\´ VKRUWKDQG IRU ELRORJLFDO GLYHUVLW\ ZDV GH¿QHG E\ WKH United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) as “the variability among living organisms from all sources . . . terrestrial, marine, and other aquatic ecosystems.”1 Thus, the term refers not only to the ecological notion of species diversity or to the genetically based variability – either within or among species populations – but also to the quality, range, or extent of differences between the biotic entities dwelling in a given ecosystem (Heywood and Bastge 1995). Furthermore, biodiversity is important not only as a “cultural” asset (i.e. directly providing cultural services), but also because most of its components are involved in providing the whole suite of ecosystem services.

Balancing water for people and nature 139 Biodiversity and service provision The issue of whether or not all species, or all functional groups of species, are essential for the provision of ecosystem services – which raises the question of how much species loss and loss of which species could occur without impairing service provision – is still unresolved (Loreau et al. 2001; Reich et al. 2004). Examples of exotic species replacing indigenous species, and apparently providing equivalent ecosystem services, suggests that many species of “natural” ecosystems may be redundant with respect to ecosystem service provision (Lawton and Brown 1993). Other studies, however, reveal the circumstances XQGHU ZKLFK VSHFLHV ORVV VLJQL¿FDQWO\ FRPSURPLVHV VHUYLFH SURYLVLRQ 7KLV would happen when the lost species a b c d

has no apparent role in service provision but is interdependent with other species that do have a role; is a component of a species-poor ecosystem (Mooney et al. 1995a); is dominant (either in numbers or in biomass) in that ecosystem; or differs strongly from other species in the ecosystem (Power and Mills 1995).

Also, an individual species may not be tightly associated with the provision of a certain service. Rather, only a large number of species, very different from each other (i.e. making a rich biodiversity), jointly function in providing this service. 7KH VLJQL¿FDQFH RI WKH GLPHQVLRQV RI ELRGLYHUVLW\ SHU VH UDWKHU WKDQ WKH importance or unimportance of any individual species or any individual functional group of species within it, is controversial. Walker (1992) and Lawton and Brown (1993) proposed that species often overlap in functional properties, such that loss of any of them has a negligible effect, and hence that most species are redundant with respect to ecosystem services. On the other hand Ehrlich and Ehrlich (1981), comparing species to airplane rivets, suggested that each species loss contributes equally to the probability of large ecosystem changes. Reich et al. (2004) showed that accumulation of plant biomass (a variable that integrates the provision of several supporting services) in response to an experimental increase in resources (carbon dioxide and nitrogen) increased (a) with increasing number of species irrespective of the number of functional groups they belonged to, and (b) with increasing number of functional groups when the number of species remained constant. This result suggests that declines in either the number of species or the number of functional groups could reduce service provision of an ecosystem impacted by environmental changes. This experiment and others (e.g. Tilman et al. 1994, Naeem et al. 1994) suggest that rich biodiversity provides insurance against changes in ecosystem processes that might impair service provision, thus imparting resistance and resilience to disturbances (Christensen et al. 1996; MA 2005). To conclude, differences among species in their responses to disturbances make it unlikely that, over decades or centuries, there could be much ecological redundancy in the species composition of an ecosystem (MA 2005).

140 U. Safriel The non-linearity of biodiversity-service provision function Though the notion that service provision is positively related to biodiversity (Mooney et al. 1995a; Loreau 2000) is prevalent, that relationship may be nonlinear. For example, Worm et al. (2006) found that on a global scale linearly declining biodiversity in marine coastal ecosystems brings about an exponential decrease in the provision of services, such as seawater quality maintenance and others. Furthermore, it has been suggested that a threshold in biodiversity often needs to be FURVVHG LQ RUGHU WR VLJQL¿FDQWO\ LPSDLU WKH SURYLVLRQ RI VHUYLFHV (KUOLFK DQG Ehrlich 1981). This threshold hypothesis is consistent with observed shifts between GLIIHUHQWVWDWHVRIZDWHUTXDOLW\OLQNHGZLWKFKDQJHVLQ¿VKGLYHUVLW\ZLWKLQODNHV (Scheffer et al. 1993), and with observed initiation of soil erosion attributed to crossing a threshold in loss of vegetation cover (Safriel 2009). The practical implication of the threshold hypothesis is that costs of ecological restoration rise steeply if ecosystems must be forced across a threshold in order to restore lost services. Yet, though a few studies explored the shape of the service-biodiversity curve (i.e. Worm et al. 2006), more research is required for detecting the location of the threshold (Schulze and Mooney 1993), and for identifying the biodiversity components that are crucial in determining the threshold (Mooney et al. 1995a). Species loss and the precautionary principle -XVWDVWKHVLJQL¿FDQFHRILQGLYLGXDOVSHFLHVLQWKHSURYLVLRQRIVSHFL¿FHFRV\Vtem service is obscure, the effect of removing “unimportant” species on the few species that are “important” in their direct contribution to services is not known. Furthermore, except in few cases (e.g. Reich et al. 2004; Worm et al. 2006), the reaction in service provision of an already altered biodiversity to further human impacts is unknown. Caution is therefore recommended in drawing conclusions about ecosystem response to the loss of a given species or to reduced biodiversity (Mooney et al. 1995a). Confronted with this realization, the CBD suggests WKDW³ZKHUHWKHUHLVDWKUHDWRIVLJQL¿FDQWUHGXFWLRQRUORVVRIELRORJLFDOGLYHUVLW\ODFNRIIXOOVFLHQWL¿FFHUWDLQW\VKRXOGQRWEHXVHGDVDUHDVRQIRUSRVWSRQLQJ measures to avoid or minimize such a threat.”2 This is because biodiversity may be irreversibly lost by the time the economic value of a species is fully assessed (Sagoff 1996). As a result the service associated with this species may be degraded beyond the point of restoration, making inaction due to undervaluing biodiversity and ecosystem services very costly (e.g. Balmford et al. 2003). It is therefore advised to apply the “precautionary principle” to policies for managing ecosystems. This principle implies a value judgment about the responsibility of the present generation of humans toward future generations 3HUULQJV 6LQFHFXUUHQWNQRZOHGJHGRHVQRWVXI¿FHWRJXLGHDFWLRQUHOL ably, it is prudent to accept the option that an extinction threshold exists which, if crossed, can result in unacceptable degradation of ecosystem services. Accordingly, the precautionary principle implies that justifying the loss of a species by invoking redundancy is unacceptable. Since the precautionary principle entails a

Balancing water for people and nature 141 cost, decisions need to be made about how far that cost would have to be stretched or how much insurance society can afford to buy. This decisionmaking process will be greatly assisted by better understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem services. Until then, threats to biodiversity should be considered indicative of threats to ecosystem services, including those related to water provision and regulation. Water-related ecosystem services )UHVKZDWHUFRQVWLWXWHVD³JRRG´SURYLGHGE\HFRV\VWHPVVRE\WKH0$GH¿QLtion freshwater constitutes a provisioning service. People intuitively associate the provision of freshwater with freshwater ecosystems (e.g. lakes, rivers, small streams, ponds, and wetlands). However, the ability of these ecosystems to provide water, which is the major non-living component of these ecosystems, greatly depends on adjacent or even distant terrestrial ecosystems, which determine both the quantity and quality of the water that the freshwater ecosystem stores. Thus, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are jointly involved in this provisioning service, and they may also provide other services, some of which are indirectly linked to water provision. Water-related services of terrestrial ecosystems Water-regulation services For freshwater ecosystems to provide water, the water-regulating service of terrestrial ecosystems is required. It is provided by these ecosystems through their soil vegetation cover and is enhanced by the plant diversity of this cover. On the JOREDOVFDOHWKLVSODQWELRGLYHUVLW\UHJXODWHVWKHVLQJOHODUJHVWÀX[IURPWKHELRVSKHUHWRWKHDWPRVSKHUH±WKHÀX[RIZDWHUIURPWKHVRLOXSZDUGWKURXJKWKH ecosystem function of evapotranspiration (Schlesinger et al. 7KLVÀX[LV counteracted by another service provided by the vegetation cover of terrestrial ecosystems – shade, which reduces evaporation from the soil surface. The vegetation cover of all terrestrial ecosystems, through the architecture of canopies and roots of all plant species combined, interacts with the physical-chemical FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH HFRV\VWHP VRLOV ODQG VXUIDFHV WR UHJXODWH WKH UDLQIDOO ÀX[ once precipitation reaches the ground surface. It determines the fate of raindrops, whether to penetrate the soil directly and end up as soil moisture or groundwater, or to generate surface runoff that becomes a stream or a river, either feeding a pond or a lake, or eventually returns to the ocean. The vegetation cover of terrestrial ecosystems, aside from being involved in the global water cycle, regulates the global climate through the ecosystem functions of photosynthesis and respiration. These are involved in regulating the gaseous composition of the atmosphere, including the major greenhouse gas, FDUERQ GLR[LGH DQG LQ WKH PRGXODWLRQ RI WKH ODQG VXUIDFH¶V UHÀHFWLRQ RI VRODU radiation back into to the atmosphere.

142 U. Safriel 7KH ZDWHU UHJXODWLRQ VHUYLFHV DUH RI XWPRVW VLJQL¿FDQFH LQ GU\ODQGV ZKLFK comprise 41 percent of global land), since these are the ecosystems whose major supporting services – primary productivity and nutrient cycling – are constrained by water availability. Many current dryland populations, except for those along SHUHQQLDO ULYHUV WKDW ÀRZ WKURXJK GHVHUWV 6DIULHO DUH XQDEOH WR EH VXSported sustainably by the food provisioning services of dryland ecosystems (Mooney et al. 1995a, 1995b; Safriel 2009). Water regulation and soil conservation tradeoffs Due to difference in their vegetation cover, cultivated ecosystems may differ from RWKHU³QDWXUDO´WHUUHVWULDOHFRV\VWHPVLQWKHZD\WKH\UHJXODWHWKHZDWHUÀX[HV,Q Israel, for example, Stanhill (1993) calculated that the potential water yield (the volume of rainfall in a given year on a given surface area, minus the volume of water returned to the atmosphere from the same area and year) of the “natural” Mediterranean ecosystem, which receives 400 to 800 mm of rainfall annually, had been 1,590 km3/year. This is lower than the current potential yield of 1,846km3/ year received by this ecosystem, now that it has been transformed into a cultivated ecosystem. Thus, the water regulation function evaporated more soil water from the original “natural” ecosystem than from the subsequent cultivated ecosystem. This is therefore a case in which the transformation of an ecosystem by humans improved the service of water regulation, thus increasing the soil water content to be used by agricultural crops. There are cases, however, in which the human transformation of non-forest to an afforested ecosystem results in a reduced water conservation service, whereby the afforested ecosystem evapo-transpires more soil water than the ecosystem it replaced (Sandstrom 1998; Zhang et al. 2007). It is likely, however, that the woody vegetation, whether “natural” or a result of ecosystem transformation, is more effective than the agricultural crop in providing a supporting service – that of soil conservation. Mediterranean scrubland ecosystems, for example, are known to conserve soil by protecting it from water and wind erosion, much better than cultivated ecosystems under the same soil and climatic conditions. Thus, the widespread ecosystem transformation in Israel, as in other dryland agricultural countries, involves a trade-off in ecosystem services, whereby promotion of the soil moisture conservation service has been attained at the cost of the soil conservation service. Water regulation and forage provision tradeoffs In many arid (desert) drylands, cyanobacteria, other unicellular terrestrial algae, lichens, and mosses jointly mold a soil crust, which is often hydrophobic (Belnap 2003). During rainstorms, this crust generates surface runoff, stored at the deep root zone of the patchily distributed perennial shrubs (Boeken and Shachak 1994). Thus, rather than being thinly spread over the desert surface and evaporating from a thin topsoil, rainwater is redistributed by the water-regulation service of the crust, such that it is protected from evaporation and can sustain the

Balancing water for people and nature 143 shrubs during the long and hot dry period. This water-regulating service also PLQLPL]HV ÀDVKÀRRGV KHQFH UHGXFLQJ GDPDJHV ERWK RQVLWH ORVV RI WRSVRLO and off-site (silt clogging of reservoirs, reduced water quality in freshwater ecosystems by sedimentation and turbidity). Also, the maintenance of shrubs by the water-redistributing service creates “islands of fertility” (Schlesinger et al. 1990) by promoting the growth of other plant species around the shrubs, thus increasing the desert’s primary productivity, which supports the services of forage provision, and enables using arid ecosystems as rangelands. Overstocking, mainly practiced on the “commons,” leads not only to overgrazing but to breakage of the crust through trampling. This impact on biodiversity (mostly a microorganisms biodiversity) results in a cascading degradation of water regulation, soil conservation, and forage provisioning services. Thus, overuse of the latter service leads to its own demise, through an overall land degradation in this ecosystem. A striking example is provided by the sandy arid ecosystems at the Egyptian-Israeli border (Figure 8.2).

Figure 8.2 Loss of ecosystem service of soil conservation, due to damage to biodiversity. An air photo of a grazing-protected area (right of the two vertical lines) and a common grazing land (left of the two lines). Vertical lines are a patrol road, on both sides of the international border between Israel (right) and Egypt (left). Black dots are shrubs and grey surface is sand covered by a biological crust created by a diversity of microorganisms, which generates runoff that supports the shrubs, and both combined provide the service of soil conservation, through sand-dune stabilization of this desert rangeland. On the grazed and trampled area this service is degraded, the sand is denuded of shrubs and biological crust, and its stability and further provision of forage are compromised (source: image provided by Arnon Karnieli (Karnieli and Tsoar 1995), labeling by author).

144 U. Safriel Flood regulation service of terrestrial ecosystems 7KH ÀRRG UHJXODWLRQ VHUYLFH LV SURYLGHG E\ FRQWUROOLQJ VXUIDFH UXQRII 7KLV service of terrestrial ecosystems also supports water provisioning by freshwater ecosystems since the regulated runoff feeds into both groundwater natural and man-made freshwater ecosystems, as well as into storage. The controlled and UHJXODWHGFKDQQHOLQJRIVXUIDFHUXQRIIWRVWRUDJHUHGXFHVDQGHYHQSUHYHQWVÀDVK ÀRRGV WKDW HURGH VRLOV FDXVH SROOXWLRQ DQG FORJ IUHVKZDWHU HFRV\VWHPV DQG man-made water storages. Vegetation cover is instrumental in providing the service, but when this plant biodiversity is denied the water it requires for its own maintenance and functioning, water provision for people is ultimately curtailed. This occurs when ecosystems are transformed into urban or agricultural RQHVLQZD\VWKDWLQWHUIHUHZLWKVXUIDFHDQGVXEVXUIDFHUDLQZDWHUÀX[HVWKDWIHHG soil moisture used by plant biodiversity in off-site areas. Services provided by freshwater ecosystems Water-related services provided by wetlands Wetlands – freshwater ecosystems either of a water table at or near the surface, or lands covered by shallow water of physical, chemical, and biological feaWXUHVUHÀHFWLQJUHFXUUHQWRUVXVWDLQHGLQXQGDWLRQRUVDWXUDWLRQ&RZDUGLQ et al. 15&D ±SURYLGHWKHVHUYLFHRIZDWHUSXUL¿FDWLRQWKURXJKEUHDNing down, detoxifying and removing chemicals harmful to functioning of the freshwater ecosystem itself, and for the people to whom the water is provisioned (Mooney et al. 1995a). The relatively slow water movement typical of wetlands allows for suspended material to be deposited, and provides time for the mineralization of organic compounds and the biodegradation of toxichemicals (NRC 1992). Wetlands also support submerged vegetation, which further slows down water movement, thus increasing deposition of suspended matter at the bottom of the wetland, consequently increasing the purity of the water body. This deposition also reduces the overall depth and ultimately contributes to the wetland’s spatial expansion. This expansion further augments the water UHJXODWLRQ ÀRRG UHJXODWLRQ DQG ZDWHU SURYLVLRQ VHUYLFHV E\ SURYLGLQJ IRU VWRUDJH GXULQJ ÀRRGV DQG SURPRWLQJ VORZ GRZQVWUHDP UHOHDVH RI ZDWHU 7KH ÀRRG UHJXODWLRQ VHUYLFH ORZHUV ÀRRG SHDNV WKXV UHGXFLQJ ÀRRG GDPDJH including soil erosion and the clogging of water reservoirs (NRC 1992; Mitsch and Gosselink 2000). Water-related services provided by rivers and riparian ecosystems 5LYHUV DQG VWUHDPV SURYLGH WKH VHUYLFH RI ZDWHU SXUL¿FDWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ DW OHDVW partial treatment of wastewater. The instrumental biodiversity here is that of freshwater microorganisms, whose high oxygen demand for processing the ZDVWHZDWHU¶VRUJDQLFORDGLVVDWLV¿HGE\WKHR[LGL]LQJSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVWUHDP

Balancing water for people and nature 145 current (NRC 1992). Freshwater herbivores and predators maintain the diversity of wastewater-treating species, thus matching it with the diversity of compounds to be degraded or recycled. The vegetation on stream banks contributes to their physical stability; and when the banks are inundated from rising waters, this FRYHU PRGHUDWHV WKH UDWH RI ZDWHU ÀRZ 7KH VHUYLFHV RI VRLO FRQVHUYDWLRQ DQG water regulation of the riparian ecosystem mold the physical features of the stream, such as channel width and channel depth, which also affect the water SXUL¿FDWLRQVHUYLFH:KHQWKHSROOXWLRQORDGH[FHHGVWKHFDSDFLW\RIWKHHFRV\Vtem for providing this service, the ecosystem becomes “polluted,” with most of its services degraded. Water-related services provided by lakes and man-made freshwater ecosystems /DNHVUHJXODWHWKHÀRZRIRXWJRLQJULYHUVDQGSURYLGHZDWHUVWRUDJHDFDSDFLW\ that is often managed in order to enhance the water provision service. Lakes also provide wastewater treatment, mostly by allowing suspended solids to VHWWOHDQGGHFRPSRVH0RVWPDQPDGHIUHVKZDWHUHFRV\VWHPV±¿VKSRQGVZHWlands built for wastewater treatment, recreational lakes and ponds, stormwater management ponds, canals, and open-air reservoirs – are colonized by freshwater biodiversity, including aquatic microorganisms, plants, and invertebrates that not only support waterfowl but also non-aquatic species such as bats (Carmel and Safriel 1998). Other services of freshwater ecosystems The primary productivity service of most freshwater ecosystems, including man-made ones, supports many provisioning services. These include proviVLRQRI¿EHUVUHHGVRIZHWODQGVSDS\UXVRIPDUVKHVWUHHVRIULSDULDQHFRV\VWHPV DQG IRRG ¿VK DQG FUXVWDFHDQV DTXDWLF ELUGV DQG HYHQ PLFURVFRSLF unicellular algae, e.g. Spirulina in Lake Texcoco and Lake Chad). Many species of freshwater ecosystems have been domesticated, including waterIRZOGXFNVJHHVH DQG¿VKFDUSVWLODSLDDQGRWKHUV 1HDUO\DOOVSHFLHVFXOtivated in man-made freshwater ecosystems have wild progenitors and close relatives in “natural” freshwater ecosystems. While the domesticated species are endangered, due to declining resistance to emerging environmental stresses, the progenitors and wild relatives not only maintain the genetic variability required for resistance but also continue to evolve in “natural” ecosystems by responding to the changing environment. Hence the ecosystems that support progenitors of cultivated species constitute a repository of transferable genetic variability (biogenetic resources) which is instrumental in developing resistant varieties. All freshwater ecosystems provide the biodiversity-supporting service. Even FRQVWUXFWHG ZHWODQGV DQG RWKHU DUWL¿FLDO IUHVKZDWHU HFRV\VWHPV RIWHQ DWWUDFW wildlife, especially migrating or wintering birds (US EPA 1993). Depending on

146 U. Safriel local cultures, the same biodiversity components of a freshwater ecosystem can then either be consumed by people, or they can provide a cultural service and hence be protected. Indeed, freshwater ecosystems are often highly valued for their cultural services, especially where such ecosystems are scarce, as in drylands (Safriel and Adeel 2005; Safriel 2006).

$EHQH¿WFRVWHYDOXDWLRQRIHFRV\VWHPV 7KHEHQH¿W±YDOXDWLRQRIHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHV Unlike the provisioning services, most of which produce or deliver goods of monetary value, all other ecosystem services are rarely marketed (Christensen et al. DQGWKHLUYDOXDWLRQLVDFKDOOHQJH'H¿QLQJHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHVDVÀRZV of materials, energy, and information from natural capital stocks which combine with manufactured and human capital services to produce human capital, Costanza et al. (1997) have attempted to value the services provided by “natural” ecosystem (i.e. excluding those provided by cultivated and other intensively exploited ecosystems). Using a range of techniques, including comparing market prices across situations which differ in the provision of relevant services, estimating the “willingness to pay” for services and quantifying the cost of restoring or synthetically replacing services, values of 17 services across 16 major ecosystems were estimated. Although this pioneering work attracted criticism (e.g. Balmford et al. 2002; 3HUULQJV LWGUHZDWWHQWLRQWRWKHVLJQL¿FDQFHRIHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHVDQGLW may still provide an insight by comparing the Costanza et al.’s (1977) valuation of water-related services to that of other services. It is then evident that the water-related regulating services are more valuable than other regulating servLFHVWKDWWKHSURYLVLRQLQJVHUYLFHVRIIRRGDQG¿EHUDUHPRUHYDOXDEOHWKDQWKDW of water provisioning, and that all cultural services combined (provided by both freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems) have the second highest value after nutriHQW F\FOLQJ )LJXUH 0RUH VLJQL¿FDQWO\ GHVSLWH WKHLU VPDOO JOREDO DUHD aquatic ecosystems were found to be very valuable (Table 8.1). Whereas all freshwater ecosystems comprise only 2.4 percent of all non-marine ecosystems (terrestrial and freshwater combined), the value of their services is 40 percent of the value of all non-marine ecosystems. And the average annual value of per hectare of a freshwater ecosystem is 16.8 higher than that of a hectare of nonmarine ecosystem. In spite of shortcomings of this valuation exercise, it draws attention not only to the danger of undervaluing services of ecosystems just because they are outside the market, but also to the disproportionate value of water-related ecosystem services, and the freshwater ecosystems that generate many of them. Furthermore, since the natural capital that provides the services is projected to become scarcer, the value of the services will increase, to the point that when thresholds are irreversibly crossed by irreplaceable ecosystem services, their YDOXHPD\ULVHWRLQ¿QLW\&RVWDQ]D et al. 1997).

Balancing water for people and nature 147 7KHFRVW±YDOXDWLRQRIHFRV\VWHPFRQVHUYDWLRQ In order to avoid loss of ecosystem services, ecosystems need to be maintained and protected, so as to secure their service provision. Ecosystem conservation (often called “nature conservation” or “biodiversity conservation”) is habitually practiced in “protected areas”, but is also required and often applied in other areas subjected to “development.” James et al. (2001) and Balmford et al. (2002) estimated the current annual expenditure on maintaining and managing the existing protected areas at the global scale to be 6.5 billion US$ (year 2000 $ values). However, they also D b c d

LGHQWL¿HGWKHIXQGLQJVKRUWIDOOVLQDSSURSULDWHO\PDQDJLQJWKHH[LVWLQJSURtected areas, determined the cost of expanding this network for providing optimal protection to all global ecosystem types, estimated the opportunity costs incurred by people living in or near these areas, and calculated the cost of managing the areas once they become protected. The overall annual cost of maintaining such a global network of protected “natural” ecosystems amounted to 45 billion US$ (Balmford et al. 2002).

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Value relative to value of all services (%, log scale)

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When adding the cost of applying protection measures to ecosystems and their biodiversity in areas other than the protected ones (such as in cultivated, forest, freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems) the overall annual cost of conservation

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1

Figure 8.3 Estimated global value of ecosystem services expressed as percentage of the aggregated value of all global ecosystems (annual mean of US$33 trillion). Columns: black – water-related services; gray – services that are only partly waterrelated; white – services not related to water (data from Costanza et al. 1997).

148 U. Safriel Table 8.1 Valuation of freshwater ecosystems in relation to valuation of all terrestrial, non-marine global ecosystems (including the freshwater ecosystems) Global area (Million ha) Terrestrial ecosystems 15,323 (freshwater ecosystems included) Freshwater ecosystems Freshwater wetlands 165 Lakes and rivers 200 Total freshwater ecosystems 365 Freshwater relative to terrestrial 2.4% ecosystems combined

Value per area unit Total global value ($/ha/yr) ($/yr x10 9) 804

19,580 8,498 13,508 17 times higher

12,319

3,231 1,700 4,931 40%

Note The share of freshwater ecosystems in the value of all terrestrial ecosystems combined is very high, but their overall global areas comprises a very small proportion of all global terrestrial ecosystems. Data from Costanza et al. 1997.

went up to 317 billion US$ (James et al. 2001). This is only a tiny fraction of the EHQH¿WGHULYHGIURPJOREDOHFRV\VWHPVZKRVHPHDQYDOXHHVWLPDWHGE\&RVWDQ]D et al. (1997) amounts to 38 trillion US$ (updated to 2000 US$ value, Balmford et al. 7KXVWKHRYHUDOOEHQH¿WFRVWUDWLRRIDQHIIHFWLYHJOREDOSURJUDPIRUWKH conservation of the global remaining “nature” is around 100:1. Furthermore, using Costanza et al. HVWLPDWHVIRUFDOFXODWLQJEHQH¿WVGHULYHGIURPWKHUHTXLUHG expansion of the overall global protected area, suggested that their cost relative to WKH DVSLUHG EHQH¿W LV DERXW WHQ WLPHV ORZHU WKDQ WKH FRVW UHTXLUHG WR SURWHFWHG “nature” outside the projected protected areas. This puts into perspective the remarkable conservation bargain of biodiversity and ecosystem services presented by a well designed and managed global network of protected areas (James et al. 2001). However, in spite of the costs required to be invested in conservation being H[WUHPHO\ ORZ UHODWLYH WR WKH KLJK EHQH¿WV RI WKHLU UHVXOWLQJ VHUYLFH SURYLVLRQ many global ecosystems are not protected, and much of the current threats to ecosystem services derive from water resource development.

The consequences to “nature” and people of water resource development Water resource development, biodiversity, and services Water resource development: ecosystem transformations and service trade-offs ³:DWHUUHVRXUFHGHYHORSPHQW´PHDQVLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQRIZDWHUUHODWHGHFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV HVSHFLDOO\ ZDWHU SURYLVLRQLQJ 7KLV LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ LV DWWDLQHG WKURXJK “development,” which entails management of freshwater ecosystems, whether

Balancing water for people and nature 149 they are “natural” or not. The management may include increasing storage capacity by damming, or increasing water output by enlarging outlets, pumping, and constructing water conveyance structures. The provisioned water is thus transported to other ecosystems to be used for irrigation, thus enabling their transformation to cultivated ecosystems. Indeed, water resource development has driven an increase in the extent of global irrigated agricultural land (from c.140, to 170, 250, and 270 million hectares in 1961, 1970, 1994, and 2000, respectively, Brown et al. 1997, UNEP 2002). The activities involved in such water resource development constitute the “direct drivers” of ecosystem change (Figure 8.4). This change involves an aspired promotion of some ecosystem services, but causes unintended degradation of others. Thus, water resource development often encompasses a trade-off in the provision of ecosystem services. The direct drivers of change are themselves driven by indirect drivers of changes of ecosystems and their services, which are not biophysical but demographic-, social-, and policy-related. These are motivated by aspirations of increasing human well-being, but often achieve the opposite. When this happens, WKH GHYHORSPHQW LV TXDOL¿HG DV QRQVXVWDLQDEOH 3HRSOH PD\ WKHQ UHVSRQG WR their reduced well-being by taking actions that indirectly drive further ecosystem change (Figure 8.4). Water resource development promotes not only agricultural but also urban expansion, mainly in drylands. These nearly always detrimentally affect biodiversity and, since biodiversity is instrumental in the provision of ecosystem services, this often makes water resource development and its consequent rural and urban development, non-sustainable.

Human well-being

Ecosystem services

Indirect drivers (e.g. demographic, social, economic and policy changes)

Direct drivers (e.g. land use, ecosystem transformation)

Figure 8.4 The linkages between ecosystem services, human well-being, and their direct and indirect drivers. Rectangles are states and trends, circles are drivers of states and trends (after MA 2005).

150 U. Safriel Ecosystem transformation and biodiversity loss 7KH GDPDJH WR ELRGLYHUVLW\ RFFXUV ¿UVW ZLWKLQ WKH HFRV\VWHPV WUDQVIRUPHG WR urban and cultivated ecosystems and results in a degradation of some services. To the farmer, the loss of services provided by the ecosystem prior to its transformation to his newly created farmland is not an adversity, since his expectation from this transformation only pertains to the biological productivity service, with ZKLFKKHLVOLNHO\WREHIXOO\VDWLV¿HG%XWWKHWUDQVIRUPDWLRQLQGXFHGGDPDJHWR biodiversity permeates off the transformed plot to various distances and at larger spatial scales, and impinges on the remaining, non-transformed “natural” ecosystems. This is since the survival of a species depends on its population size and the smaller the population the risks of its local extinction increase. Since population size is positively related to the size of the species’ ecosystem area (which includes the habitat of the species), the agricultural (or urban) ecosystem transformation means a reduction of the area of the species’ ecosystem and habitat. This leads to a population decline, which may be detrimental to the provision of services in which this species is involved. Furthermore, when a SRSXODWLRQ LV UHGXFHG WR D VSHFLHVVSHFL¿F WKUHVKROG WKH VSHFLHV PD\ EHFRPH locally extinct (NRC 1995b). Similarly, as the reduced area of an ecosystem UHDFKHV DQ HFRV\VWHPVSHFL¿F WKUHVKROG WKH QXPEHU RI LWV VSHFLHV GHFOLQHV (Soulé 1986) and, hence, overall service degradation may occur. This population decline of species and even their local extinction and the overall reduction in number of species translates into a gradual spatio-temporal deterioration of service provision, affecting not only the ecosystems that have been transformed, but also the ones that have been left intact. An added adversity to species’ persistence is the fragmentation of the ³QDWXUDO´ HFRV\VWHP LQÀLFWHG E\ GHYHORSPHQW (YHQ ZKHQ HFRV\VWHP WUDQVformation reduces the overall habitat size of a species by only a small fraction, this transformation often fragments the formerly contiguous non-transformed, “natural” ecosystem into several non-contiguous patches of non-transformed ecosystem. The population in each fragment is then small and at risk, including the risk that all the fragmented populations will become sequentially extinct. Once the transformation to cultivated systems has taken place, a third source of biodiversity decline emerges outside the transformed ecosystem. Pesticides HVSHFLDOO\DHULDOO\DSSOLHG DQGIHUWLOL]HUVRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLUULJDWLRQ ¿QG their way into adjacent and distant non-transformed ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2007). Insecticides and herbicides are often concentrated at top levels of the food chain, sometimes reaching lethal concentrations in top predators. These topdown effects on “natural,” non-transformed ecosystems may be detrimental to their provision of services. Pesticides are also transported by runoff and, thus, affect freshwater ecosystems and contaminate ground water. Fertilizers too are applied in large quantities, and besides polluting ground water they also reach aquatic ecosystems, often bringing about their eutrophication and its associated biodiversity loss. Also, harmful trace elements, especially selenium, are often DEXQGDQWLQDJULFXOWXUDOGUDLQDJHZDWHU&DQWD¿R et al. 1996) and these can be

Balancing water for people and nature 151 further concentrated through links of the food web and damage top level species. Thus, water drawn from lakes, rivers, and aquifers to irrigate agriculture is returned contaminated to freshwater ecosystems. This reduces aquatic biodiversity with a resulting degradation of services, including water-related ones. To conclude, on the local scale of the individual farm, the water resource development that drove agricultural development is perceived as successful for some time. However, as time advances, the reduced biodiversity resulting in degraded service provision away from the farm will be felt in both the transformed and the non-transformed ecosystems. Detrimental effects of water resource development on agriculture The architectural structure of vegetation cover of non-transformed ecosystems, molded by the diversity of plant species that make this cover, is instrumental in groundwater recharge and the renewability of water in freshwater ecosystems. Development of these water resources enable irrigation, which drives transformation of “natural” to cultivated ecosystems on a large spatial scale. But since the vegetation cover of the cultivated ecosystems, often provided by a seasonal single-species crop is structurally simple, the water provision service of these ecosystems is inferior to that of the perennial and structurally diverse vegetation cover of the ecosystems they replaced. The resulting reduced renewability of water sources impairs the supply of irrigation water that water resource development had set out to achieve. Furthermore, the change in vegetation’s structural diversity often changes the landscape around freshwater ecosystems in ways that may irreversibly affect their chemical, physical, and biotic features (Mooney et al. 1995b), thus reducing the prospects of continued withdrawal of water for irrigation. Finally, the expansive vegetation removal may entail changes in albedo, evaporation, cloud formation, and rainfall distribution, and the overall reduced structural and landscape diversity may reduce the resilience of ecosystems to episodic high rainfall events. All the above suggest that water resource development has the potential to reduce, rather than increase irrigation water supplies. Water resource development and non-agricultural services Services not directly related to water are often compromised by water resource GHYHORSPHQWDLPHGDWDJULFXOWXUDODQGRUXUEDQH[SDQVLRQ:KHQÀRZLVVLJQL¿cantly reduced due to river-water withdrawal, dramatic changes in biodiversity composition and hence in service provision, including that of disease regulation QRW FRQWURO WDNHV SODFH 7KH UHGXFHG ÀRZ LPSDFWV PDQ\ DTXDWLF VSHFLHV EXW creates favorable conditions for mosquitoes, many species of which are vectors of human diseases. This unexpected detrimental outcome brought about by water resource development at a small spatial scale is overshadowed by large-scale water resource development projects of severe repercussions on a grand scale, compromising a whole suite of ecosystem services. Lake Chad shrinkage and the

152 U. Safriel Aral Sea disaster are such salient examples, whereas the sustainability of Lake Nasser and the Sea of Galilee constructed and managed, respectively, for driving agricultural and rural development still awaits the test of time. However, some of their negative impacts on biodiversity and services are already apparent. Water resource development and freshwater ecosystems The case of the Jordan River basin in Israel The effects of draining wetlands for reducing evaporative loss and expanding agricultural land often cascade to adjacent and remote freshwater and other ecoV\VWHPV7KLVLVH[HPSOL¿HGE\WKHFRPSOHWHGUDLQDJHRIDZHWODQGOLQNHGWRD lake within the small Hula valley at the head of the Jordan River basin in the 1950s. Both swamp and lake ecosystems (except a small section on which a nature reserve was reconstructed) were transformed into a cultivated ecosystem. Thus, the service of primary productivity formerly delivered by aquatic plants ZDV WR EH SURYLGHG DW DQ LQWHQVL¿HG UDWH E\ WHUUHVWULDO SODQWV %XW UDWKHU WKDQ promoting the service of primary productivity, the aerial exposure of the wetODQG¶V SHDW ERWWRP DPSOL¿HG WKH VHUYLFH RI QXWULHQW F\FOLQJ 7KH LQWHQVL¿HG decomposition of the surface, rich in organic matter resulting from anaerobic conditions prior to drainage, has lead to fast mineralization and consequent genHUDWLRQDQGDFFXPXODWLRQRIQLWUDWHV:LQWHUÀRRGVZDVKHGWKHVHQLWUDWHVWKURXJK the Jordan River to Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), thus exposing it to risk of eutrophication and compromising the water quality of this major water reservoir RI,VUDHO15& $OVRWKHÀRRGUHJXODWLRQDQGZDWHUSXUL¿FDWLRQVHUYLFHV of the wetland were lost, further risking water quality of the Kinneret. Moreover, surface subsidence, due both to peat decomposition and its loss to raging ZLOG¿UHV OHG WR ZLQWHU ÀRRGLQJ RI VHFWLRQV RI WKH GUDLQHG ZHWODQG ZKLFK compromised cultivation – the very objective of the draining project. ,Q UHVSRQVH UXQRII UHJXODWLRQ HOLPLQDWHG WKH ¿UHV DQG FRQWUROOHG VXEVLGHQFH thus enabling cultivation. But the monocultural cropping on large, contiguous areas triggered vole plagues. Massive rodent control operations using toxic bait made the intoxicated voles an easy prey for local and migratory raptors, causing secondary poisoning of the birds, some of which belonged to endangered species. Eventually, the area where the surface sank most was transformed into a recreational lake serving as a waterfowl refuge. Ecotourism attracted by this development and promotion of the restored wetland’s cultural services compensated the farmers for not attaining the fully aspired income from agriculture. As to the Kinneret, pollution IURPWKHGUDLQHGVZDPSZDVDYHUWHGEXWWKHLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQRILWVVHUYLFHRIZDWHU SURYLVLRQDQGUHJXODWLRQUHGXFHGWKHÀRZLQWKH-RUGDQ5LYHUDQGWKHLQÀRZWRWKH Dead Sea, a landlocked lake at the downstream end of the watershed. Besides comSURPLVLQJ¿VKHULHVDQGELRGLYHUVLW\RIWKH.LQQHUHWDQGWKH-RUGDQ5LYHUUHVSHFtively, the Dead Sea level retreated, and the stability of its expanding coastal areas as well as sections adjacent to them was compromised through emergence of potholes posing life-threatening dangers to people and transportation.

Balancing water for people and nature 153 These large-scale water resource development projects, however, proved LQVXI¿FLHQW IRU VDWLVI\LQJ WKH QHHGV RI WKH LQFUHDVLQJ SRSXODWLRQ RI ,VUDHO DQG water shortages resulted in the need for large-scale irrigation with treated wastewater, as well as seawater desalination. In retrospect, if the understanding of the role as well as the limitations of ecosystem services in water provision and regulation had prevailed several generations ago, the contemporaneous history would have been different. The whole Jordan Valley watershed ecosystem could have remained intact with the full diversity of its services functional. The water GHPDQGVWKDWFRXOGQRWEHPHWE\WKHORFDOHFRV\VWHPVZRXOGKDYHEHHQVDWLV¿HG with freshwater generated by wastewater treatment and seawater desalination projects that could have been in place much earlier. The case of dryland ephemeral water bodies In many drylands, the rainy season generates ponds that dry out during the dry season. Other ponds, created by damming and quarrying, are used for generations to water livestock in early summer. These ponds harbor unique species, adapted to the ephemeral conditions, usually by having an amphibian lifestyle or leaving dormant propagules in the soil of the ponds’ dried-up bottoms (Blaustein and Schwartz 2001). When wet, the ponds attract wildlife that comes to drink or to prey on other animals. In many drylands, these ponds are drained and transformed into cultivated ecosystems. Other ponds become sinks for wastewater of high toxicity or high organic load, or are intentionally drained or sprayed to control mosquitoes. The biodiversity of ephemeral pond ecosystems has been reduced by this spraying, and the rarity of these ponds further contributes to its demise. Implicating pond ecosystems as mosquito WKUHDWV LV ÀDZHG VLQFH WKH SRQGV¶ QDWXUDO SUHGDWRUV ± WDGSROHV DQG SUHGDWRU\ insects as well as competitors (Stav et al. 2005) – control mosquitoes and maintain their populations at low levels, which constitutes the disease regulation service of these ecosystems. The measures to control mosquitoes eliminate the biodiversity components that provide the disease regulation service while the mosquitoes evolve resistance to the pesticides. Beside water provision (for livestock) and disease regulation, these ecosystems also provide FXOWXUDOVHUYLFHV±UHFUHDWLRQDOHGXFDWLRQDODQGVFLHQWL¿F±JLYHQWKHXQLTXH nature of their biodiversity and landscape. Water resource development and terrestrial ecosystems Water resource development promotes agriculture, but adversely affects downstream ecosystems. Pumping spring water and impounding it within sealed construction to prevent evaporation and vandalism affect the freshwater biodiversity of the spring and its stream as well as the riparian biodiversity along the stream. But the effect of drying streams and obstructing access to spring pond water also cascades to the terrestrial ecosystems adjacent to the springs and streams and, ultimately, farther.

154 U. Safriel Lowering the water table through pumping aquifers may risk terrestrial biodiversity and, hence, services of terrestrial ecosystems, some of which are related to water regulation. Such pumping detrimentally affects dryland ecosystems dominated by trees that tap relatively high water tables (Ward and Rohner 1997) RUUHGXFHWKHGLVFKDUJHRIVSULQJVWKXVFXUWDLOLQJWKHVWUHDPÀRZRUWUDQVIRUPing permanent spring pools into ephemeral ones. Another common practice is damming runoff courses and constructing openDLUUHVHUYRLUVWKXVVWRULQJÀRRGZDWHUIRULUULJDWLRQRUDTXLIHUUHFKDUJH7KRXJK the objective of dams is to minimize runoff to the ocean or to land-locked VDOLQH ODNHV RU PDUVKHV ÀRRGZDWHU FRQWULEXWHV WR SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WHUUHVWULDO HFRV\VWHPVDORQJWKHLUFRXUVHVWKURXJKYHUWLFDOLQ¿OWUDWLRQFRQFRPLWDQWZLWK lateral redistribution. Therefore, unlike other practices, which have a strong local effect on biodiversity of lakes, marshes and riparian ecosystems, and a smaller regional effect on species of terrestrial ecosystems, damming has a regional, whole-watershed effect, mostly on terrestrial biodiversity. And the closer the dam is to the water divide, the larger the area in which this biodiversity is affected. In hyperarid (desert) dryland watersheds, the channel is the only landscape component with perennial vegetation. Installing dams in these drylands has a stronger effect on biodiversity than building them in drylands of lower aridity (arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid drylands). Damming also reduces the subsurface runoff in the channel, which lasts longer than the surface runoff and is critical for the persistence of the channel vegetation and its animal biodiversity. However, damming reduces severe erosion and loss of organisms when preYHQWLQJÀDVKÀRRGVEXWDOVRUHGXFHVWKHOHDFKLQJRIVDOWVDQGWKHGHSRVLWLRQRI QXWULHQWULFKVRLOZKHQDUUHVWLQJPRGHUDWHÀRRGV)LQDOO\UHVHUYRLUVHQULFKWKH desert with open water bodies that may dramatically affect the behavior and patterns of desert species and hence desert ecosystem services. Water resource development and freshwater biodiversity The risk of species extinction increases with reduced area and increased fragmentation of habitats, due to their populations becoming smaller and PXWXDOO\LVRODWHG7KLVLVDPSOL¿HGLQIUHVKZDWHUHFRV\VWHPVDQGHVSHFLDOO\LQ drylands, where they are scarce and mutually isolated, and often also relatively small, thus putting freshwater biodiversity at risk. The drainage of the Hula wetland discussed in a previous section is an example. Species loss in the Hula Prior to drainage, 585 freshwater animal species were recorded in this wetland. Of those, 19 were represented by populations of species at their distributional edges, and 12 were global endemics, found only in the Hula (Dimentman et al. 1992). In spite of reconstructing a nature reserve shortly after drainage, 20 percent of the species, including 11 of the 19 species

Balancing water for people and nature 155 represented by peripheral populations, and seven of the 12 endemics, disapSHDUHG7KHORVVRIWKHHQGHPLFVDPRQJWKHPDIURJDQGD¿VKVSHFLHVFRQstituted global extinction. Furthermore, 36 of the species lost to the Hula, have not been recorded elsewhere in Israel and, of the 36 bird species breeding prior to drainage, ten ceased to breed. Thus, the drainage of a very small dryland wetland resulted in local, national and global losses of 119, 36, and 7 animal species, respectively. On the other hand, some 200 aquatic animal species new to the Hula colonized the region, in response to changes in habitat and water quality, following the drainage and subsequent reconstruction efforts. The extent to which these 200 new species compensate for the 120 lost, with respect to the provision of currently required ecosystem services, remains unknown. Other impacts on Hula biodiversity and services The geographic placement of the Hula, on a climatic transition area and at the crossroad of several biogeographic regions brought together species whose distribution centers and origins are north (Europe), west (Mediterranean Basin), east (Iraq, Iran), and south (Egypt, tropical Africa). Though most of these species also exist elsewhere, their combination, hence their interactions and joint functionality that could have generated unique ecosystem services, existed nowhere else and has been irreversibly lost. Thus, this ecosystem transformation resulted not just in loss of individual species, but of exceptional freshwater biodiversity and services typical to climatic transition areas. Also, dramatic natural phenomena, such as the upstream spawning migration LQWR DQ LQODQG VWUHDP RI /DNH +XOD¶V WKUHH F\SULQLG ¿VK DUH IRUHYHU ORVW however, the species themselves have not gone extinct. Finally, the Hula is on the route of migrating birds, which refuel prior to and following the Sahara crossing. The drainage may have detrimental effects on service provision of both European and African ecosystems, since the birds that used to stage in the Hula KDYH FRQVWLWXWHG D VLJQL¿FDQW ELRGLYHUVLW\ FRPSRQHQW LQ VXPPHU (XURSHDQ ecosystems), and in winter (African ecosystems). Another relevant issue is that the incentive to plan the Hula drainage project was the plight of malaria. Its effect on its indigenous population that subsisted on the provisioning services of this ecosystem has not been carefully documented, but its effect on the immigrant European population that colonized the region in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries was devastating. However, during the period between initiating planning and the ground breaking of the project, Hula malaria has been fully eradicated, never to return even when small parts of the ecosystem were restored. Thus, it was DDT, netting of housing, and isolation and treatment of infected people applied simultaneously that eradicated both the parasites and their vectors. This suggests that in the case RI PDODULD WKH GLVHDVH UHJXODWLRQ RI WKLV IUHVKZDWHU HFRV\VWHP GLG QRW VXI¿FH yet no ecosystem transformation (e.g. drainage) was required for achieving the required control.

156 U. Safriel Loss of freshwater biodiversity relative to terrestrial biodiversity The loss of biodiversity due to the Hula drainage accounts only partly for losses in Israel as a whole since it is a dryland country in which water is scarce but its XVH LV LQWHQVLYH %\ ,VUDHO DV D ZKROH KDG ORVW RQO\ WKUHH YHUWHEUDWH ¿YH invertebrate, and one fern species from its freshwater and riparian biota. Many more species are at high risk. Using IUCN categories of species endangerment, LW LV HYLGHQW WKDW DPRQJ WKH PDPPDO UHSWLOH DPSKLELDQ ¿VK IHUQ DQG monocotyledon plants (excluding grass) species of Israel, only 14 percent of non-freshwater species are at risk, but 35 percent of freshwater species are at risk. Nathan et al. (1996) showed that, although waterfowl and raptors constitute only one-third of the regularly breeding birds of Israel, all but one of the 14 extinct bird species were waterfowl (seven species) or raptors (six species, four of which were mostly wetland or riparian). This suggests that further reduction in the size or water quality of freshwater ecosystems of Israel could cause the extirpation of more than 35 percent of their vertebrate and plant species (and probably a high number of invertebrate species), which would compromise ecosystem service provision on a large scale. :DWHUUHVRXUFHGHYHORSPHQWGHVHUWL¿FDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH (IIHFWVRIHFRV\VWHPVRQGHVHUWL¿FDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH Transformation of “natural” ecosystems to cultivated ones occurs mostly in drylands, since most good cultivable land outside the drylands is already cultivated (Safriel and Adeel 2008). Dryland development commonly entails the transformation of ecosystems used as rangeland to cultivated ecosystems. The shrinking of rangeland encourages overgrazing which compromises the service of soil conservation, thus leading to topsoil erosion, an expression of rangeland degradation. The dependence of the cultivated dryland ecosystems on irrigation often leads to soil salinization, driven by the high evaporation of drylands and the low quality of many dryland water sources. This salinization is an expression of cropland degradation. When the accumulated salinity reaches a threshold at which the cultivated ecosystem can no longer provide the service of primary productivity and food provisioning as well as other ecosystem services that support cultivation (Zhang et al. 2007), cultivation is abandoned. It is then colonized by halophyte vegetation, rather than recolonized by the forage biodiversity of the non-transformed rangeland ecosystem. Thus, both soil erosion and salinization reduce service provision, which may not be restored unless heavy investments in rehabilitation are made. The persistent land degradation DQG ORVVHV RI GU\ODQG SURGXFWLYLW\ LV RIWHQ ODEHOHG ³GHVHUWL¿FDWLRQ´ PXFK RI which is driven by water resource development, and indirectly driven by demographic and policy drivers (Adeel et al. 2005). Human-induced climate change is expressed in elevated temperatures associated with increased evaporation (and transpiration); and in drylands,

Balancing water for people and nature 157 reduced precipitation (Meehl and Stocker 2007) reduced soil moisture and decreased water resources (IPCC 2007). Climate change can be mitigated by reducing emissions, promoting sinks (processes removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere) and generating or maintaining “reserves” (storages of organic matter secured from being oxidized to atmospheric carbon dioxide). The climate regulation service of all global ecosystems combined modulates the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, through the supporting services of primary productivity and nutrient cycling, in the provision of which the biodiversity of plants and microorganisms are intimately involved. Global plant life generates the sink service through photosynthesis and the global biota, of which plants constitute the largest fraction by mass, provide the service of maintaining the global carbon reserve. Since the service of climate regulation is largely provided by vegetation, much of which is limited by water, a reduced allocation of water to “nature” would exacerbate global warming. Water resource development as driver of undesirable environmental linkages 7KHFDXVHVIRUGHVHUWL¿FDWLRQDUHWKHVDPHDVWKRVHOHDGLQJWRGHJUDGDWLRQRIWKH climate regulation service, which fail to provide the sink function and to maintain the global carbon reserve (Safriel and Adeel 2005, 2008). Deforestation and removal of other vegetation contribute to warming and climate change on the global scale, while the same processes occurring in the drylands result in deserti¿FDWLRQ7KLVODUJHVFDOHYHJHWDWLRQUHPRYDOLVDUHVXOWRI³QDWXUDO´HFRV\VWHPV transformed to cultivated ones. Although crops cultivated in these ecosystems provide vegetation cover, when harvested their organic matter is not sequestered but removed from the ecosystem, to be eventually oxidized to become atmospheric carbon dioxide. Also, during the time between harvesting one crop and growing the next, the bare soil is exposed to wind or water erosion. This not only reduces fertility but also removes organic matter from the ecosystem. Hence, cultivated systems do not provide effective soil conservation and climate regulaWLRQ VHUYLFHV DV WKH HFRV\VWHPV WKH\ UHSODFHG )XUWKHUPRUH ZKHQ GHVHUWL¿HG these cultivated ecosystems cease to provide a sink service and their service of PDLQWDLQLQJFDUERQUHVHUYHVLVLPSDLUHG7KXVWKHLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQRIZDWHUSURYLVLRQLQWKHGU\ODQGVLVOLQNHGWRGHVHUWL¿FDWLRQZKLFKWRJHWKHUZLWKORVVRIELRdiversity and climate change reinforce each other (Figure 8.5). To break these YLFLRXV F\FOHV EDODQFLQJ ZDWHU IRU SHRSOH DQG ³QDWXUH´ ZRXOG QRW VXI¿FH though prudence with water resource development is required. Climate change and ecosystems of climatic transition areas One option for reducing the detrimental effects of climate change on biodiversity and hence on service provision is to refrain from water resource development leading to ecosystem transformation in climatic transition zones. This is because these are exposed to irregular alternations between climatic regimes, and the

158 U. Safriel

Figure 8.5 /LQNDJHVEHWZHHQRYHUH[SORLWDWLRQDQGLQWHQVL¿FDWLRQRIWKHZDWHUSURYLVLRQ service, which in drylands may lead to soil degradation (expressed in salinization and erosion), that in turn leads to reduced, rather than the aspired to increase, of the primary productivity service. The degraded soil and the reduced productivity drive two mutually interacting self-reinforcing feedback loops, nested within another feedback loop, which drives and exacerbates GHVHUWL¿FDWLRQDQGELRGLYHUVLW\ORVVLQWKHGU\ODQGVDQGHYHQJOREDOFOLPDWH change (after Adeel et al. 2005).

H[SRVXUHWRÀXFWXDWLQJFOLPDWHVVHOHFWVIRUWKHPDLQWHQDQFHRIKLJKJHQHWLFYDULability within species represented there by peripheral populations (Kark et al. 1998, 2008). Due to this genetic diversity, these populations are likely to persist in the climatic transition zone even under projected conditions of global climate change, whereas the populations of the same species inhabiting the core distribution areas, away from the transition zone and not endowed with such withinspecies diversity will go extinct. This will cause an overall impaired biodiversity of the ecosystems away from the transition zone, resulting in risk to many ecosystem services. The peripheral populations of the species inhabiting the transition zones are likely to survive the effects of global climatic change, and can therefore be instrumental in restoring the lost services of ecosystems by providing genetic material for transplantation (Safriel et al. 1994). Thus, ecosystems of climatic transition zones provide the service of supporting biodiversity that can be used for the rehabilitation of other ecosystems, whose services would be impaired by projected global climate change. This genetic biodiversity, supported by ecosystems of the climatic transition zones, may be impacted by water resource development that encourages the transformation of “natural” to cultivated ecosystems. The most vulnerable

Balancing water for people and nature 159 transition zone is the global desert/non-desert one since it currently attracts water UHVRXUFHGHYHORSPHQW1DYRQHDQG$EUDKDP 7KLVFDQOHDGWRGHVHUWL¿FDtion, under which the invaluable peripheral populations would not survive.

Balancing water for people and for nature Water needs of nature In the previous sections, it is argued that the issue at stake is not how much water to allocate for “nature” at the expense of water for people so that “nature” is sustainably maintained. Rather, the issue is how much water can be allocated for sustaining the current trends of global population and economic growth without degrading ecosystem services to the point that they cease to support these trends, thus bringing about a mutual collapse of both “people” and “nature.” Surely, “nature” – or ecosystems, irrespective of their degree of naturalness – requires water for maintaining biodiversity that is instrumental in provision of ecosystem services. Also, people require water for maintaining themselves and society, and this water is provided by functioning ecosystems. But even though ecosystems can continue to serve people with water that is not required for ecosystem functions, their services will nevertheless be degraded if WKHZDWHUQRWXVHGE\WKHPLVXVHGWRWULJJHUDQLQWHQVL¿HGSRSXODWLRQDQGHFRnomic growth. This is because inasmuch as water is critical for ecosystem health, its biodiversity needs relief from pollution, and needs space not appropriated by development, even more than it needs water. Nevertheless, in the following section, means to maintain and secure water-related ecosystem services are proposed. Restoration of freshwater ecosystems Water allocation to natural ecosystems Little knowledge of the quantity and quality of water required by “natural” ecosystems for maintaining their biodiversity and providing their services exists. Legal allocations of water “for nature” are determined as compromises rather than based on knowledge of ecosystems “needs” (e.g. Thoms and Sheldon 2002). In Israel, for example, between 0.2 to 2.0 percent of the mean annual total renewable water is allocated to protected ecosystems (NRC 1999); however, this DPRXQW LV OLNHO\ WR EH LQVXI¿FLHQW IRU VHFXULQJ IUHVKZDWHU DQG ULSDULDQ HFRV\VWHPV DQG WKHLU VHUYLFHV $ SUHYDLOLQJ QRWLRQ LV WKDW DOO HIÀXHQWV QHHG WR EH removed from freshwater ecosystems. But the grim prospects of severe water shortages suggest that many rivers will dry up if the discharge of at least partly WUHDWHG HIÀXHQWV LQWR WKHP LV QRW SUDFWLFHG 7KH QRWLRQ RI XVLQJ ZDVWHZDWHU WR help support biodiversity is based also on the belief that many ecosystems can “serve themselves” by processing wastewater to a level that supports their “needs.”

160 U. Safriel Wastewater for rehabilitation of freshwater ecosystem Reuse of treated wastewater for cultivated ecosystems is emerging in dryland DUHDV,Q,VUDHOIRUH[DPSOHVHOISXUL¿FDWLRQYDOXHVLQVHYHUDOVHFWLRQVDORQJWKH course of the Yarkon River (expressed as the difference in indicator values between the downriver and upriver tips of a stream section divided by passage time) were 0.1–0.5, 0.5–0.6 and 0.2 microgram/liter/second for biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, and ammonium concentration, respectively. 7KHVH DUH KLJK YDOXHV RI QDWXUDO SXUL¿FDWLRQ FDSDFLW\ W\SLFDO RI DQ HDVWHUQ Mediterranean climate (Rahamimov 1996), but measures to increase the selfSXUL¿FDWLRQSRWHQWLDORIWKH
Balancing water for people and nature 161 biodiversity, and the role of its components in the provision of the different services; (c) the susceptibility of the ecosystem to damage – its ability to absorb anthropogenic disturbances without loss in its ecosystem services (resistance), along with its potential for rehabilitation following disturbance (resilience; 6DIULHO (DFK RI WKHVH FULWHULD FDQ EH TXDQWL¿HG E\ DSSO\LQJ FXUUHQW knowledge, paradigms, or prevailing notions, as follows. Regarding regulation services, it is customarily assumed that the larger the QXPEHU RI YHJHWDWLRQ OD\HUV WKH JUHDWHU WKH LQ¿OWUDWLRQ SRWHQWLDO DQG WKH VPDOOHU the risk of soil erosion and intense surface runoff; and the larger the number of species, the greater the number of vegetation layers. Conservationists, however, always presented with choices to be made with respect to conservation of individual species, try to rank ecosystems by the prevalence of high-ranking species within them. Species can be ranked according to their role in provisioning services, being progenitors of cultivated species, wild relatives of cultivated species, non-cultivated species currently collected for nutritional, medicinal, ornamental, DURPDWLF ELRIXHO DQG LQGXVWULDO SXUSRVHV DQG IRUDJH RU ¿VKHU\ VSHFLHV :LWK respect to other services, an ecosystem can be ranked by having species represented by their peripheral populations (with high genetic diversity), species LGHQWL¿HG E\ ,8&1 FULWHULD XQGHU FDWHJRULHV RI YXOQHUDEOH DQG UDUH LQFOXGLQJ VSHFLHVZKRVHHFRQRPLFVLJQL¿FDQFHKDVQRW\HWEHHQH[SORUHGEXWZKRVHH[WLQFtion would prevent the elucidation of value, if it exists), species instrumental in the SURYLVLRQRIFXOWXUDOVHUYLFHVZKLFKRIWHQWUDQVODWHWRHFRQRPLFEHQH¿WV VSHFLHV RIVFLHQWL¿FLQWHUHVWZKLFKDOVRKDYHHFRQRPLFYDOXHLQFOXGLQJYDOXHJHQHUDWHG WKURXJKVFLHQWL¿FGLVFRYHULHV DQGVSHFLHVWKDWSURYLGHRUPDQLSXODWHKDELWDWVIRU other species (Jones et al. 1994). An ecosystem can be scored by the number of its species in each of the above categories, multiplied by a rank assigned to each. Because freshwater ecosystems affect biodiversity of adjacent terrestrial ecosystems by provisioning water for terrestrial vegetation, and water and food for terrestrial animals, terrestrial ecosystems in proximity of freshwater ecosystems should be ranked higher than other terrestrial ecosystems. Since freshwater ecosystems, especially in drylands, are relatively scarce and of small size, their biodiversity is inherently at risk. Therefore, for comparing the value of a freshwater and a terrestrial ecosystem, the scores should be higher for species of freshwater than for species of terrestrial ecosystems. Another criterion for ecosystem ranking in the planning process is their potential for restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services following disturbance and ecosystem transformation. Rehabilitation would be faster when the ecosystem is close to sources of immigrants. These sources are other areas with protected bioGLYHUVLW\KHQFHWKHLUVLJQL¿FDQFHLQFUHDVHVDVWKH\DUHFORVHUWRWKHGLVWXUEHGRU transformed area. Also, the more penetrable the surrounding areas are for dispersing units, the easier the migration is. For example, a surrounding agricultural area is more penetrable than a surrounding urban region. Given the high value of freshwater ecosystems and their conservation needs, their ranking with regard to rehabilitation potential (distance from polluting sources and existence of corridors such as streams) should be higher than when applied to terrestrial ecosystem.

162 U. Safriel To conclude, the most valuable ecosystem for a reliable provision of ecosystem services is one with a high number of species, belonging to a high number RIIXQFWLRQDOJURXSVDODUJHFRPSRQHQWRIVSHFLHVRISRWHQWLDOHFRQRPLFVLJQL¿FDQFH DQG RI VDOLHQW FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH SURYLVLRQ RI VSHFL¿F VHUYLFHV D ODUJH contiguous size, and connected by corridors to other similar ecosystems. Using these rather generic guidelines, it is feasible to evaluate ecosystems with regard to their performance as water-related service providers. Such a procedure would EHWKH¿UVWVWDJHLQWU\LQJWRVWULNHDEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHOHYHORIKXPDQZHOO being to be aspired to, and the ability of ecosystems and their biodiversity to provide for it.

Conclusions and policy implications Ecosystem services link “nature” and biodiversity with development There is an increasing realization that “nature” hardly exists in its purity. Rather, the global environment is composed of ecosystems of various levels of “naturalQHVV´GLIIHULQJLQWKDWWKHLUVWUXFWXUHDQGIXQFWLRQKDYHEHHQDQGVWLOODUHPRGL¿HG E\KXPDQVWRYDU\LQJGHJUHHV3HRSOHGHULYHEHQH¿WVIURPHDFKRIWKHIXQFWLRQVRI these ecosystems – even those most aggressively transformed by humans. Biodiversity, the totality and the phenomenal diversity of life on Earth divided between its different ecosystems, is directly and indirectly involved in the provision of these EHQH¿WV ODEHOHG ³HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV´ 0DQ\ RI WKH VHUYLFHV DUH QRW MXVW ³EHQH¿WV´ EXW DUH RI VXUYLYDO YDOXH WR KXPDQLW\ +HQFH QR GHYHORSPHQW SURMHFWV DUH expected to be sustainable unless they are amply served by ecosystems. It follows that damage to ecosystems (and their biodiversity), often caused by development, jeopardizes development itself. The accelerated rate and increasing intensity of human interventions in the structure and function of ecosystems result in the transIRUPDWLRQ RI HFRV\VWHPV H[SRVHG WR D UHODWLYHO\ ORZ OHYHO RI KXPDQ LQÀXHQFH (natural ecosystems) into highly managed ecosystems, such as cultivated and XUEDQHFRV\VWHPVLQZKLFKVRPHVHUYLFHVDUHDUWL¿FLDOO\LQWHQVLI\LQJRIWHQDWWKH expense of degradation of other services. Thus, this chapter equates “nature” with its role in maintaining a sustained ÀRZRIHFRV\VWHPVHUYLFHVLQFOXGLQJZDWHUUHODWHGVHUYLFHV7KHLPSRUWDQFHRI water to the functioning of the ecosystems themselves and the importance of water-related services to human well-being, increase with climatic aridity, on both spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, balancing water for nature and people simply means maintaining “nature,” especially in drylands, as an ecosystem service provider. Water resource development has a cost that impinges on its sustainability Water resource development drives urban and agricultural development, especially in drylands. The transformation of ecosystems to cultivated ones requires

Balancing water for people and nature 163 DQ LQWHQVL¿HG SURYLVLRQ RI ZDWHUUHODWHG HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV ± ZDWHU SURYLVLRQLQJÀRRGUHJXODWLRQZDWHUSXUL¿FDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHUHJXODWLRQ7KHLQWHQVL¿FDtion of these services is often at the expense of other ecosystem services not directly related to water but essential for agricultural and other development: soil conservation, primary production, nutrient cycling, supporting biodiversity, disease regulation, and a suite of cultural services, largely provided by freshwater ecosystems embedded in drylands. Water resource development often reduces the provision of ecosystem services; directly, by damaging the biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems and by denying water from terrestrial biodiversity, and indirectly through agricultural development. The damages of agriculture to biodiversity and ecosystem services are direct, through irrigation-induced salinization, and application of pesticides and fertilizers; and indirect, through appropriation of land that reduces and fragments species populations, often leading to their local extinction, hence to a reduced functionality of biodiversity in the provision of ecosystem services. To conclude, water resource development has the potential, too often realized, to undermine its own sustainability, thus rendering the consequent agricultural development non-sustainable. This is further exacerbated by the LQWHUOLQNHGJOREDOVFDOHSKHQRPHQDRIGHVHUWL¿FDWLRQFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGELRdiversity loss. Projected water demands may not be sustained by “nature” %RWK FOLPDWH FKDQJH DQG GHVHUWL¿FDWLRQ DUH GULYHQ E\ D VRFLRGHPRJUDSKLF driver – population growth and increased per-capita resource use. These also UHTXLUH DQ LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ RI IUHVKZDWHU SURYLVLRQ VHUYLFHV HYHQWXDOO\ UHDFKLQJ the point at which these services will fail to provide human demands. Indeed, given “business as usual” scenario, Rockström et al. (2007) projected a severe “blue water” (i.e. mostly irrigation water) shortage at global scale by 2050. One of the several strategic choices proposed for addressing this shortage once it occurs is “horizontal expansion” of cultivated ecosystems, meaning transforming of rangelands and forests ecosystems to cultivated ones (Rockström et al. 2007). Such a large-scale ecosystem transformation entails assigning the “green water” (i.e. soil moisture directly derived from rainfall) that currently supports the biodiversity of forest and range ecosystems to support the replacing “horizontally expanded” cultivated ecosystems. Thus, this projected agricultural expansion is not to be driven by future water resource development, but is a result of current water resource development that drives its own nonsustainability, with far-reaching implications of expansive loss of ecosystem services. These losses not only impair the sustainability of the “horizontallyexpanded” rainfed (green water-supported) cultivated ecosystems, but also those of the already existing irrigated (blue water-supported) cultivated ones. This is because forests and rangeland ecosystems are instrumental in regulating rainfall to become blue water stored in groundwater and other reservoirs. To conclude, the horizontal expansion is likely to be non-sustainable. Therefore, rather than

164 U. Safriel addressing the projected water shortage once it materializes, measures for avoiding it in 2050 need to be explored now. They range from management of population size and individual consumption to the sustainable generation of new water, i.e. water desalination and reuse. Care needs to be taken with current water resource development Not ignoring the ominous projections, it is necessary to address the way humanity uses water resources at present. The challenge is to allocate water to support the current trends of global population and individual consumption such that ecosystem services are not degraded and reduced to the point that they cease to support the population, resulting in a mutual collapse of “people” and “nature.” Indeed, “nature” or ecosystems require water for maintaining their biodiversity which is instrumental in service provision. But inasmuch as water is critical for both ecosystem functions and human well-being, biodiversity needs space and relief from pollution. For securing water-related and other ecosystem services, it is necessary to restore damaged freshwater ecosystems and secure their water DOORFDWLRQ,WLVDOVRQHFHVVDU\WRHYDOXDWHWKHEHQH¿WVRISURSRVHGGHYHORSPHQWV against the cost of lost biodiversity components and the consequent degradation of ecosystem services. Planners need to consider that allocating water to freshwater ecosystems is not a concession to the “greens” but a prerequisite for making the planned development sustainable. They also need to include in the costs of development projects externalities due to trade-offs in ecosystem servLFHVLQÀLFWHGE\WKHGHYHORSPHQW5HVHDUFKRIYDOXDWLRQPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGWKH relations between biodiversity components and ecosystem services is required for an effective implementation of measures aimed at balancing water for people with “nature.” Much of the knowledge required for these undertakings is not yet available. Yet this should not be a reason for inaction; its resulting cost of irreversible biodiversity loss and the projected degradation of ecosystem services associated with this loss is already known to be so high, that it overwhelmingly outweighs the cost of actions taken with an incomplete backing of knowledge. Therefore, though the following section highlights research needs, it is succeeded by operational recommendations, based on currently available knowledge, for planning land and water development projects.

Research recommendations It is recommended to: 1 Identify and quantify the services provided by each ecosystem type. Identify the optimal and minimal water (quantity and quality, in time and space) and land (size and spatial pattern) required by each of these ecosystems for securing the sustainability of the provision of their services, in different mixes that can be determined by development needs and trends.

Balancing water for people and nature 165 2 Determine which of the ecosystem types within the landscape proposed for development play landscape-relevant keystone roles, and explore means to maintain ecosystem processes and, hence, biodiversity at the landscape and regional scale, in balance with designed development projects. 3 Identify species that are endangered or at risk of becoming endangered, assess the contribution of each to water-related as well as other ecosystem services, identify the causes for the endangerment of these species, and explore means to reduce the risks. 4 Compare local water losses from evapotranspiration in different ecosystems, under different management and uses, to water gains accrued directly and indirectly from the provision of the other services of each of these ecosystems. $VVHVV ELRGLYHUVLW\ FRPSRQHQWV RI FXUUHQW DQG SRWHQWLDO HFRQRPLF VLJQL¿cance, especially in freshwater ecosystems and climatic transition zones inhabited by peripheral populations, and determine the water allocation (of YDULRXVVRXUFHV DVZHOODVWKHH[WHQWRIODQGDQGLWVVSDWLDOFRQ¿JXUDWLRQ required for their conservation. 6 Conduct long-term studies to evaluate the effects of damming storm water on biodiversity at the lower reaches of watersheds, especially in dryland regions, and use the results to prescribe water quantities that must be released to reduce damage to downstream biodiversity components, and WKXVVHFXUHWKHLULQYROYHPHQWLQLGHQWL¿HGVHUYLFHSURYLVLRQ 7 Evaluate the amount of water lost through appropriation of different ecosystem types by agriculture and urban development, for generating guidelines to be followed for land-use allocation in areas planned for future development. 8 Study the rate of change of population sizes and number of species due to fragmentation, transformation, and reductions in size of “natural” ecosystems, and use the results to provide guidelines for placement, size, and VSDWLDOFRQ¿JXUDWLRQRISURMHFWHGODQGXVHVDQGWUDQVIRUPDWLRQXQGHUGLIIHUent development scenarios. 9 Evaluate the amounts of water allocated to protected areas and for supporting biodiversity in other areas, and the fraction of this water that recharges groundwater and therefore can be reused, and assess service provision by protected compared to non-protected areas. 10 Study the role of freshwater ecosystems in treating wastewater of various qualities, the degree to which freshwater allocated to “natural” and managed ecosystems can be replaced by treated wastewater, and the technologies appropriate for this substitution. &RQGXFW UHVHDUFK UHTXLUHG WR GH¿QH FULWHULD IRU HYDOXDWLQJ WKH VLJQL¿FDQFH of biodiversity in providing ecosystem services, including the degree of redundancy to be expected under various circumstances. Following recommendations of Kremen (2005) this may include: (a) identifying those biodiversity components that play a major role in service provision; (b) determining the compensatory biological community mechanisms that

166 U. Safriel stabilize ecosystem functions; and (c) evaluating the spatio-temporal scale over which the biodiversity components active in service provision and the services themselves operate.

Management recommendations Current and developing knowledge may support the following recommendations: 1

2

5

6

In planning or reviewing a development project, it is necessary to include all “externalities” in the project’s costs – especially the expected reduction in service provision rate – at several spatial and temporal scales. These reduced rates need to be translated to costs to other existing and projected development, including the opportunity costs. Water allocations to ecosystems should be based on predetermined goals in the state and trends of services of these ecosystems. Benchmarks need to be developed for the provision of these services and indicators for monitoring programs for each of the water-allocated ecosystems should be operated to enable review and update of the allocations. :KHQHFRV\VWHPVRIVSHFLDOVLJQL¿FDQFHVXFKDVWKRVHLQFOLPDWLFWUDQVLWLRQ areas or those supporting progenitors and relatives of cultivated crops are targeted for water-driven development, it would be prudent to consider VHWWLQJDVLGHZLWKLQWKHPSURWHFWHGDUHDVVXI¿FLHQWO\ODUJHWRVHUYHDVUHSRVitories of genetic resources. 7KH FRVWV DQG EHQH¿WV RI DYRLGLQJ UHGXFLQJ RU PLWLJDWLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI ecosystem fragmentation by a projected development project needs to be evaluated against different degrees of the aspired sustainability of the project and of the resulting human well-being. Projections of the local and regional effects of global climate change on water-related and other ecosystem services need to be consulted and considered in the planning, execution, operation and monitoring of current land uses and projected development projects. Following recommendations of Balmford et al. (2002, 2003), agricultureand water-related subsidies which are economically and ecologically perYHUVHQHHGWREHLGHQWL¿HGUHPRYLQJWKHVHGLVWRUWLRQVZRXOGUHGXFHKDELWDW loss, and free public funds for investing in biodiversity and service conservation. This will enable the required added protection to the still-existing natural ecosystems, and the timely expansion of protected areas, before the costs of these currently cost-effective actions greatly increase.

Notes 1 Article 2 of the Convention – see www.cbd.int/convention/articles/?a=cbd-02 for the full text. 2 From the preamble of the Convention – for the full text, see www.cbd.int/ convention/ articles/?a=cbd-00.

Balancing water for people and nature 167

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9

Optimizing water for life Daniel P. Loucks

Introduction We all know water is essential for life. We also know that many people – too many – are not getting enough of it, both quantity and quality, that allow them to live healthy lives. And for many of the world’s poor, access to clean water is too costly. For some countries, the percentage of people lacking adequate water supplies exceeds well over half of their total populations. As a result, many, especially the very young, die. Others are constantly sick and, hence, cannot achieve their full productive potential (UNESCO 2003, 2009). So, the question is just how can we “optimize water for life,” especially in areas lacking enough water to satisfy even life’s basic needs? How do we make decisions on how PXFKZDWHUWRDOORFDWHWRHDFKRIWKHPDQ\EHQH¿FLDOXVHVRIZDWHULQWLPHVRI water stress? In addition to drinking water, people need food and clothing, and the producWLRQ RI WKH ZRUOG¶V IRRG DQG ¿EHU UHTXLUHV ZDWHU 7KHUH LV QRWKLQJ ZH HDW RU ZHDUWKDWGRHVQRWGHSHQGRQZDWHU7KHSURGXFWLRQRIHQHUJ\HLWKHUWKHUPDO LQFOXGLQJQXFOHDU RUK\GURSRZHUUHTXLUHVZDWHU7KHPDWHULDOVLQWKHEXLOGings we live and work in, and their contents, require water for their manufacture. Water also serves as an inexpensive means for transporting cargo and water-borne wastes. And, very importantly, we need water to maintain viable and diverse ecosystems. We depend upon our environment and ecosystems to sustain the quality of our lives, and indeed life itself (Postel et al. 1996; Fischlin 2007). In the past decade, progress has been made in providing more people with access to clean drinking water and basic sanitation (UNESCO 2009). But a major effort is still required to extend these essential conditions to those still without them, the vast majority of whom are poor and cannot pay the costs of these basic services. In addition, we are increasingly recognizing that we humans will not easily survive in the long run, unless we pay attention to maintaining a quality environment and life-supporting ecosystems. Again, water is needed to do this, and in times of drought determining the “optimal” allocations of water to sustain our lives, our economic activities, and our ecosystems is indeed a challenging economic and social endeavor (see, for example, Doyle and Drew 2008).

172 D.P. Loucks Balancing water demand allocations, especially when the demands exceed supSOLHVLVDFRPSOH[DQGODUJHO\SROLWLFDOSUREOHP,WLVQRWMXVWDQHFRQRPLFEHQH¿W cost issue in which all one has to do is allocate water in ways that will equate the SUHVHQWYDOXHVRIDOOPDUJLQDOQHWEHQH¿WVXQOHVVRWKHUZLVHFRQVWUDLQHGWRDOOZDWHU XVHUV 6RPH ZDWHUXVH EHQH¿WV HVSHFLDOO\ HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG HFRV\VWHP EHQH¿WV DQGPRVWQRQXVHEHQH¿WVFDQQRWEHH[SUHVVHGDGHTXDWHO\LQWHUPVRIPRQH\7KLV is in spite of many such attempts by many highly respected individuals (Costanza et al. 1997; Doyle and Drew 2008; Ecological Society of America 1997; Daily 1997) DQGLQVSLWHRIWKHGHVLUHIRUVXFKVLPSOL¿HGDQDO\VHVE\SODQQHUVDQGSROLWLFLDQV 7KHZDWHUDOORFDWLRQSUREOHPLVOLNHO\WREHFRPHHYHQPRUHFRPSOH[SROLWLFDODQG contentious in the future as populations grow and as water quantities and their qualities become even more variable and uncertain. But at least the political process of making allocations should be informed by predictions of the likely impacts of alternative allocation decisions (Postel 2000; King and Brown 2006). How can one allocate scarce water supplies optimally among all demands that impact on the quality of, or even the existence of, life – both human and HFRV\VWHPOLIH±LQWLPHVRIFULWLFDOVFDUFLW\"$JHQHUDOSUHFLVHDQVZHUWKDW¿WV all circumstances is never clear, but what is certain is that both humans and ecosystems should be kept alive and healthy. If the latter is not, it is unlikely the former will either in the long run (Postel and Richter 2003).

How much water do we need? Just how much water does society need, now and into the future, to be sustainDEOH"%\DQHVWLPDWHGELOOLRQSHRSOHZLOOEHOLYLQJLQFRXQWULHVGH¿QHG as water-scarce. Many in those countries seem to be able to survive on as little as 3 liters per day. It takes about 3,000 liters of water to produce a daily ration of food, about 1,000 times what we minimally need for drinking purposes. A substantial portion of our food comes from irrigated lands. On average, more than 70 percent of total freshwater use in the world is devoted to irrigation. Over the next 30 years, about 70 percent of grains used in cereal production are expected to come from irrigated land (UNESCO 2009). Water is needed for energy as well. Hydropower provides a substantial portion of the energy consumed in some regions where water stored in reservoirs LVDYDLODEOHEXWHYHQWKHUPDOSRZHUSODQWVUHTXLUHZDWHU7KHUPDOHQHUJ\SURduction converts heat into steam to drive turbines, and water is often used for cooling as well. But the biggest consumer of water for energy production today LV WKDW XVHG IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ DQG SURFHVVLQJ RI FURSV XVHG IRU ELRIXHOV 7KH demand for water in the production of biofuels is a growing concern. For example, in the United States, about 40 percent of all water withdrawals in the Midwest are for biofuel production. Given current subsidies that encourage biofuel production, this demand is expected to increase by 80 percent in the next 30 years. In Europe, where the issue is only beginning to be recognized, water consumption for energy production is expected to be equivalent to the daily water needs of 90 million people by 2030 (DOE 2006; EPRI 2002).

Optimizing water for life 173 Water also transports cargo and assimilates much of our domestic and industrial wastes. In developing countries, more than 90 percent of sewage and 70 percent of industrial wastewater is dumped untreated into surface water (UN 2006). Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being. Water use for energy production, domestic and industrial consumption, crop irrigation, and ship transport has long been considered a key factor in economic development DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ KXPDQ ZHOIDUH 7KHVH GLUHFW KXPDQ DQG HFRQRPLF XVHV RU purposes have traditionally taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater. Historically, humans have withdrawn freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so have often overlooked its on-site value in supporting ecosystems. In more recent years, there has been a growing recognition that DTXDWLFDQGÀRRGSODLQHFRV\VWHPVSURYLGHPDQ\HFRQRPLFDOO\YDOXDEOHVHUYLFHV DQG ORQJWHUP XVH DQG QRQXVH EHQH¿WV WR VRFLHW\ /RQJWHUP EHQH¿WV LQFOXGH the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as a more resilient and adaptive capacity of ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as global warming and its impact on the hydrologic cycle. Clearly, the maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocations, especially in times of water shortages (Kates et al. 2001; Gleick 1998). 7KH SK\VLFDO HYLGHQFH RI LQFUHDVLQJ SHULRGV RI ZDWHU VFDUFLW\ FDQ EH IRXQG almost everywhere in the world. Water scarcity (Figure 9.1) affects rich and poor countries alike. Nearly three billion people live in water-scarce conditions (more

Figure 9.1 :DWHUVFDUFH UHJLRQV RI WKH ZRUOG 6KDGLQJ UHÀHFWV WRWDO DPRXQW RI KXPDQ ZLWKGUDZDOVDVDIUDFWLRQRIWKHDYDLODEOHULYHUÀRZ:KHQWKLVJRHVRYHU water stress is considered high (because at least in the dry season, usage is likely to be almost total with rivers failing to reach the sea (source: www. earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/11/hydrological-cycle-now.html).

174 D.P. Loucks than 40 percent of the world’s population), and this situation could worsen if current population growth trends continue, and if the melting of some of the PDMRUVRXUFHVRIZDWHU±WKHJODFLHUV±FRQWLQXHV7KHPDQLIHVWDWLRQVRISHUYDsive water poverty include millions of deaths every year, due to malnourishment DQGZDWHUUHODWHGGLVHDVHSROLWLFDOFRQÀLFWRYHUVFDUFHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVH[WLQFtion of freshwater species, and degradation of aquatic ecosystems. Roughly half of all the world’s wetlands have already been lost, and dams have seriously DOWHUHG WKH ÀRZ RI URXJKO\ SHUFHQW RI WKH ZRUOG¶V PDMRU ULYHU EDVLQV 7KH situation only worsens with time. 7KH8QLWHG1DWLRQVHVWLPDWHVWKDWDERXWDVL[WKRIWRGD\¶VZRUOGSRSXODWLRQ has inadequate access to safe drinking water, and twice as many do not have adequate sanitation facilities (UNESCO 2003, 2009). Over a third of the world’s population is water stressed. If we assume “business-as-usual” forecasts, by 2050 about 40 percent of the projected global population of 9.4 billion is expected to be facing water stress or scarcity, as shown in Figure 9.2 (Hinrichsen et al. 1997). With increasing variability being predicted by global climate models, we may have more people without adequate water, even in regions that generally have more water.

Where is the water we will need? Most of the freshwater we now use comes from various river basins and aquifers, as shown in Figures 9.3 and 9.4. Figure 9.3 locates 26 of the world’s major river basins, and Figure 9.4 shows the location of the world’s major aquifers. Rivers and aquifers will continue to be the major sources of our freshwater in the foreseeable future, in spite of a continual increase in the use of desalinated saltwater.

4.0 54 countries

Population (billions)

4

3

2.8 48 countries

2

1 0.46 31 countries 0

1995

2025 Year

2050

Figure 9.2 Populations in water-stressed countries from 1995 to 2050 (source: www. infoforhealth.org/pr/m14/m14print.shtml, Figure 5).

North America 1 Yukon 2 Mackenzie 3 Nelson 4 Mississippi 5 St. Lawrence South America 6 Amazon 7 Paraná

Europe 25 Danube Africa and West Asia 8 Niger 9 Lake Chad Basin 10 Congo 11 Nile 12 Zambezi 26 Orange 24 Euphrates and Tigris

Asia and Australia 13 Volga 14 Ob 15 Yenisey 16 Lena 17 Kolyma 18 Amur 19 Ganges and Brahmaputra 20 Yangtze 21 Murray Darling 22 Huang He 23 Indus

Figure 9.3 Major river basins in the world (source: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/ major_river_basins_of_the_world).

Figure 9.4 Major groundwater aquifers in the world (source: http://io9.com/5087505/apirate-map-for-future-water-wars).

176 D.P. Loucks As illustrated in Figure 9.4, about 30 percent of the area of the continents (excluding the Antarctic) is underlain by relatively homogeneous aquifers and 19 percent is endowed with groundwater in geologically complex regions. Most of the remaining continental area contains generally minor occurrences of groundwater that are restricted to the near-surface, unconsolidated rocks.

Where is there not enough water? As Figures 9.1 and 9.2 suggest, over time an increasing number of places will not have adequate water supplies to meet all water demands, all of the time. Such regions are under water stress. Climate change may be causing less freshwater runoff in major regions of the world, as shown in Figure 9.5. During the 1948–2004 period, considerable year-to-year variations occurred LQWKHÀRZRIPDQ\ULYHUVEXWWKHRYHUDOOWUHQGVKRZHGDQQXDOIUHVKZDWHUGLVFKDUJH GHFUHDVLQJ 5LYHUV VKRZLQJ GHFOLQHV LQ ÀRZ LQFOXGH WKH
Figure 9.5 &KDQJH LQ UXQRII LQIHUUHG IURP VWUHDPÀRZ UHFRUGV ZRUOGZLGH 7KH GDUNHU the shade of gray, the greater the change in runoff. Generally the runoff decreases in mid and southern latitudes (source: www.laboratoryequipment. com/news-climate-change-river-level-drops-042209.aspx, courtesy of Journal of Climate, modeled by UCAR).

Optimizing water for life 177 groundwater to meet their water needs. Water is one of the major political issues confronting the region’s leaders. Since virtually all rivers and most aquifers in the Near East are shared by several nations, current tensions over water rights FRXOG HVFDODWH LQWR RXWULJKW FRQÀLFWV GULYHQ E\ SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK DQG ULVLQJ demand for an increasingly scarce resource (UNESCO 2006). Four Gulf states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – have so little freshwater available that they resort to desalinization of sea water. Without desalinization, the Gulf states would be unable to support their current populations. Desalinization is too expensive and impractical for most water-short countries, not to mention land-locked countries, either today or in the foreseeable future. Much of sub-Saharan Africa is facing serious water constraints. Rapid population growth will make this problem worse. By 2025, some 230 million people will be living in African countries where water is scarce (UNESCO 2009). Parts of many large countries, such as India, China, and the United States, face water stress or water scarcity, as well. India as a whole is expected to enter the water-stress category by 2025. Both India and China are considering substantial, and expensive, water transfers from water-richer to water-poorer regions to reduce some of that water stress. And if the glaciers of the HimaOD\DQ PRXQWDLQV DQG 7LEHWDQ SODWHDX FRQWLQXH WR UHWUHDW WKLV ZLOO KDYH D VXEstantial impact on hundreds of millions of the world’s population that depend RQWKDWZDWHUÀRZLQJLQULYHUVVXFKDVWKH,QGXV6XWOHM*DQJHV%UDKPDSXWUD DQG WKH
178 D.P. Loucks

Competition for scarce water supplies Where and when water is scarce, competition among water users increases and, KHQFHVRGRHVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUFRQÀLFW$QXPEHURIGHYHORSHGZDWHUVKRUWFRXQtries currently face tensions over water, including Belgium, the United Kingdom, Poland, Singapore, and the United States. In southern Britain, for instance, urban demand for water is outpacing the capacity of rivers and aquifers to meet that demand during the drier summer months. In the western United States, farmers ZKRZDQWPRUHLUULJDWLRQZDWHUIRUWKHLUFURSVDUHLQFRQÀLFWZLWKJURZLQJXUEDQ areas that demand more water for households and other municipal uses. India’s states have disputes over water rights and over dams that might provide more water for one state but at the expense of another. Water disputes, if not attended to, could become a major cause of instability in India. China already is practicing what some call the “zero sum game of water manDJHPHQW´ 7KH ]HUR VXP JDPH ± ZKHQ DXWKRULWLHV LQFUHDVH ZDWHU VXSSO\ WR RQH user by taking it away from another – is played both between competing areas of the country and between competing types of use, as when cities compete with IDUPHUV&KLQD¶V
Optimizing water for life 179 5HGXFHG UHOHDVHV RI 7LJULV DQG (XSKUDWHV 5LYHU ZDWHUV GXH WR *$3 FDQ RQO\ inhibit the restoration of some former marsh areas in southern Iraq. But this will not be the only reason for less than complete restoration success. Rapid reestabOLVKPHQWKLJKSURGXFWLYLW\DQGUHSURGXFWLRQRIQDWLYHÀRUDDQGIDXQDLQUHÀRRGHG former marsh areas indicate a high probability for successful restoration, provided WKH UHVWRUHG ZHWODQGVDUHK\GUDXOLFDOO\GHVLJQHGWR DOORZ VXI¿FLHQWÀRZRIQRQFRQWDPLQDWHGZDWHUDQGÀXVKLQJRIVDOWVWKURXJKWKHHFRV\VWHP7RDYRLGFRQÀLFW over water, cooperation among all riparian countries will be necessary (Inan 2004) ,QWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKH&RORUDGR5LYHUZKLFKÀRZVWKURXJKWKHVRXWKZHVWHUQ part of the country, has fed irrigated agriculture and enabled the rapid growth of desert cities. Now, however, demands on the river’s water supply for irrigation and XUEDQXVHKDYHEHFRPHVRJUHDWWKDWWKHULYHUÀRZQRORQJHUUHDFKHVLWVPRXWKLQ Mexico’s Gulf of California. Instead, it trickles out somewhere in the desert south RIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV0H[LFDQERUGHU7KHSUHPDWXUHGLVDSSHDUDQFHRIWKHULYHU¶V ÀRZKDVEHHQDVRXUFHRILUULWDWLRQEHWZHHQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG0H[LFR3RVWHO et al. 1998; Gleick 1998; Hinrichsen et al. 1997; NRC 2007). ,QOLJKWRIDOOWKHVHSRWHQWLDOO\VHULRXVFRQÀLFWVDQGWKHQHHGIRUZDWHUWRGULQN to produce energy, to serve industry, and to irrigate crops, just how easy is it going to be to allocate some of what is needed for these other uses to environmental ÀRZV"

Estimating ecosystem water requirements (FRQRPLFV WHDFKHV XV WKDW WR DFKLHYH PD[LPXP QHW EHQH¿WV WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI any scarce resource to multiple uses over space and time should be such that the SUHVHQWYDOXHRIWKHPDUJLQDOQHWEHQH¿WVGHULYHGIURPHDFKXVHXQOHVVRWKHUZLVHFRQVWUDLQHGDUHDOOHTXDO7KDWDGYLFHLVXVHIXOSHUKDSVLIQHWEHQH¿WIXQFWLRQV FDQ EH GH¿QHG IRU DOO XVHV DQG LI HYHU\RQH DJUHHV WKDW PD[LPL]LQJ WKH SUHVHQW YDOXH RI WRWDO QHW EHQH¿WV LV D UHDVRQDEOH JRDO IRU ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW (YHQ LI HYHU\RQH DJUHHV WKDW WKLV JRDO LV ZRUWK SXUVXLQJ GH¿QLQJ QHW EHQH¿W IXQFWLRQVLVYHU\GLI¿FXOWZKHQLWFRPHVWRZDWHUQHHGVWRVXVWDLQOLIH6RWKH question is what criteria should be used to determine just how much should be allocated to maintain healthy humans and their ecosystems (Postel et al. 1996)? 'LIIHUHQW HFRV\VWHPV LQ GLIIHUHQW UHJLRQV KDYH DGDSWHG WR GLIIHUHQW ÀRZ regimes. But in any region, the fundamental requirement for maintaining aquatic HFRV\VWHPKHDOWKLVWRPDLQWDLQFULWLFDOFRPSRQHQWVRIWKHQDWXUDOÀRZUHJLPH Natural freshwater ecosystems have adapted to and depend on natural hydrologic YDULDELOLW\7KHVWUXFWXUHDQGIXQFWLRQRIIUHVKZDWHUHFRV\VWHPVDUHDOVROLQNHG to the watershed, or catchment, of which they are a part. Aquatic ecosystems are the recipients of materials generated from the land and, hence, they are greatly LQÀXHQFHG E\ WHUUHVWULDO SURFHVVHV LQFOXGLQJ KXPDQ PRGL¿FDWLRQV RI ODQG XVH DQG FRYHU 7KH HQYLURQPHQWDO GULYHUV WKDW LQÀXHQFH IUHVKZDWHU HFRV\VWHP VWUXFWXUH DQG IXQFWLRQ LQFOXGH QRW RQO\ WKH ÀRZ UHJLPHV EXW DOVR WKH accompanying sediment, organic matter, nutrients, and various pollutants, the thermal and light characteristics, and the interactions among the mix of species

180 D.P. Loucks making up the ecosystem and, in turn, their combined interactions with the water and land (Hughes et al. 2005). 7KHZDWHUVWUHVVLQGLFDWRU:6, PDSVKRZQLQ)LJXUHDSSOLHVWRHQYLURQmental water needs – the amount of water needed to keep freshwater ecosystems in a fair condition. It was developed using global models of hydrology and water use. Dark gray areas show where environmental water needs are not being satis¿HGEHFDXVHWRRPXFKZDWHULVDOUHDG\EHLQJZLWKGUDZQIRURWKHUXVHV Estimating just how much water should be allocated to instream environPHQWDO ÀRZV SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ GDWDSRRU DULG DUHDV FDQ EH FKDOOHQJLQJ 7KRVH GHFLGLQJ RQ ZKDW ZDWHU DOORFDWLRQV WR UHFRPPHQG RU PDNH FDQ EHQH¿W IURP having models that can predict ecosystem and geomorphologic responses to ÀRZ FKDQJHV DQG WKH LPSDFWV RI VXFK FKDQJHV RQ RWKHU XVHUV RI WKH ULYHUV Generally these predictions depend on several characteristics associated with WKHÀRZUHJLPH7KHVHLQFOXGHEDVHÀRZDQQXDORUIUHTXHQWÀRRGVUDUHDQG H[WUHPH ÀRRG HYHQWV DQG DQQXDO YDULDELOLW\ )ORZ UHJLPHV DQG K\GURSHULRGV DOVRLQÀXHQFHWKHFLUFXODWLRQSDWWHUQVUHQHZDOUDWHVDQGW\SHVDQGDPRXQWVRI DTXDWLF SODQWV LQ ODNHV DQG ZHWODQGV ,W LV QRW MXVW D PLQLPXP UHTXLUHG ÀRZ WKDWLVQHHGHGLWLVDUHJLPHRIYDU\LQJÀRZFRQGLWLRQV7KLVDGGVWRWKHFRPSOH[LW\RI³DOORFDWLQJ´ÀRZVWRWKHHQYLURQPHQWGXULQJSHULRGVRIZDWHUVXSSO\ stress.

Quantifying ecological responses to water management policies One approach to quantifying the relationships between water regimes and ecosystem responses is to link hydrologic attributes (that can be managed) to WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH KDELWDW RI NH\ VSHFLHV LQGLFDWRUV 7KH XVH RI WKHVH KDELWDW

Figure 9.6 A current water stress indicator map that shows regions (darker gray) in ZKLFK HQYLURQPHQWDO ÀRZ QHHGV DUH QRW EHLQJ PHW VRXUFH ZZZFJLDURUJ enews/june2007/story_12.html).

Optimizing water for life 181 suitability index methods tends to be concentrated in the northern hemisphere DQGLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQÀXHQFHGE\WKHZRUNRIHFRORJLVWVLQWKH8QLWHG States and Europe. More holistic approaches are being applied in the southern KHPLVSKHUHHVSHFLDOO\LQ6RXWK$IULFDDQG$XVWUDOLD7KDUPH (QYLURQPHQWDO ÀRZ DVVHVVPHQW ()$ PHWKRGV DUH WHUPHG KROLVWLF LI WKH\ address the management of all non-pristine river ecosystems, all major abiotic DQGELRWLFFRPSRQHQWVRIWKHHFRV\VWHPDQGWKHIXOOVSHFWUXPRIÀRZVDQGWKHLU WHPSRUDODQGVSDWLDOYDULDELOLW\.LQJDQG%URZQ 7KLVW\SLFDOO\UHTXLUHV the use of various models or modules of a larger ecosystem response model, such as:

D ELRSK\VLFDO PRGXOH GHVLJQHG WR PD[LPL]H XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DQ DTXDWLF HFRV\VWHP DQG SUHGLFW WKH HIIHFWV RI ÀRZ FKDQJH RQ WKH VWUHDP ZHWODQG lake or river; DVRFLDOPRGXOHGHVLJQHGWRPD[LPL]HXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIKRZSHRSOHXVHWKH water resources and to predict how they would be affected by changing ÀRZVDQGTXDOLWLHV DPRGXOHXVHGWRFRPSLOHVFHQDULRVRIK\GURORJLFFKDQJHVDQGWKHLPSDFW on people; and DQHFRQRPLFPRGXOHLQZKLFKWKHFRVWVDVZHOODVWKHEHQH¿WVRIGHYHORSPHQWVFHQDULRVFDQEHLGHQWL¿HGDQGHYDOXDWHG

7KH()$DSSURDFKPDNHVWKHFRQGLWLRQRIWKHZDWHUERG\DSULRULW\PDQDJHPHQW LVVXH ZKLOH VWLOO FRQVLGHULQJ HFRQRPLF EHQH¿WV ,W LV GHVLJQHG WR LGHQWLI\ WKH WUDGHRII EHWZHHQ HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW EHQH¿WV DQG WKH PDLQWHQDQFH RI sustainable ecosystems. EFA implementation is not an issue for managers alone; scientists need to work side by side with managers to ensure its success and usefulness (Marchand 2003).

Case studies involving aquatic ecosystem restoration Case studies in aquatic ecosystem restoration provide examples of increasing public awareness that allocating water for ecosystems is an important component in river basin management. Major funding has been provided by government agencies to carry out ecosystem restoration projects, again evidence of the political reaction to public pressure for enhancing our environment and preserving valued plants and animals that inhabit particular ecosystems. RestoUDWLRQ SURMHFWV LQHYLWDEO\ LQYROYH WUDGHRIIV DPRQJ FRQÀLFWLQJ HFRQRPLF DQG HQYLURQPHQWDOJRDOVDQGHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQWKHDPRXQWVRIZDWHUDUHLQVXI¿FLHQW WRPHHWDOOZDWHUXVHGHPDQGVLQFOXGLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOÀRZGHPDQGV'R\OH DQG 'UHZ 7KLV LQHYLWDEO\ UHVXOWV LQ QR VLQJOH JRDO EHLQJ PHW WR LWV PD[LPXP H[WHQW /D\]HU 6RPH H[DPSOHV GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH IROORZLQJ SDUDJUDSKVLOOXVWUDWHVRPHRIWKHVHWUDGHRIIV7KH\DUHDPRQJPDQ\WKDWFRXOG be cited.

182 D.P. Loucks The South Florida Everglades 7KH(YHUJODGHVFRYHUVNP2 (18,000 square miles) in South Florida. It is a XQLTXHHFRV\VWHPWKDWLQFOXGHVWKH.LVVLPPHH5LYHU/DNH2NHHFKREHH(YHU glades National Park, and Florida Bay (Figure 9.7). South Florida has undergone large changes in population, land use, and hydrology over the past 100 years, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem structure and function. One of the reasons people visit and live in southern Florida is to enjoy the unique ecosystem – an ecosystem that has slowly been reduced and GHJUDGHGE\HFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWDQGE\WKHDOWHUHGK\GURORJLFÀRZUHJLPHV Although it is not possible to restore this region to its pristine condition, efforts are underway today to redesign the South Florida environment to make it a more attractive habitat for the unique plants and animals that inhabit it.

Geographic Features

Orlando UPPER CHAIN OF LAKES

Atlantic Ocean

Lake Kissimmee Kissimmee River Fort Pierce

Kissimmee River Gulf of Mexico Caloosahatchee River

St. Lucie River

Lake Okeechobee

Corkscrew Swamp & Sanctuary CREW Fakahatchee Naples Strand BIG CYPRESS PRESERVE 10,000 ISLANDS

Fort Myers

West Palm Beach

EAA

WCAs

Ft. Lauderdale

Miami Homestead

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FLORIDA KEYS

Figure 9.7 7KH (YHUJODGHV UHJLRQ LQ 6RXWKHUQ )ORULGD 86$ 7KH JUD\ OLQHV DUH WKH PDMRU FDQDOV XVHG WR WUDQVIHU LQWHULRU ZDWHU WR WKH FRDVWV 7KH (YHUJODGHV 1DWLRQDO 3DUN LV DW WKH VRXWKHUQ WLS RI WKH VWDWH /DNH 2NHHFKREHH LV WKH second largest inland lake in the United States (source: http://mytest.sfwmd. JRYSRUWDOSDJHSRUWDO3*B*53B6):0'B$%2876):0'3*B6):0'B

Optimizing water for life 183 3

7KHHFRORJLFDOJRDOVRIWKHUHVWRUDWLRQSODQ are to increase the total spatial extent of natural areas, improve habitat and functional quality, and improve native species richness and biodiversity, mainly through changes in the way water in the region is managed. But water managers must consider other objectives as well, such as providing reliable water supplies for meeting domestic, LQGXVWULDODQGDJULFXOWXUDOGHPDQGVÀRRGFRQWURODQGUHFUHDWLRQ7KHH[WHQWRI ecosystem restoration success will be evaluated with quantitative criteria, such DVDJRDOIRU/DNH2NHHFKREHHRIUHGXFLQJE\PRUHWKDQSHUFHQWWKHZDWHU FROXPQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WRWDO SKRVSKRUXV 5LJRURXV SURJUDPV RI VFLHQWL¿F research will continue throughout project implementation, so that major uncerWDLQWLHV FDQ EH DGGUHVVHG 7KLV LQIRUPDWLRQ FRPELQHG ZLWK UHVXOWV IURP WKH monitoring networks, will be evaluated so that the plan can be adaptively managed. As of October 2008, the restoration project was eight years old. At that time, it had yet to reroute any roads, canals, and dikes that have disrupted natural ZDWHU ÀRZ LQ WKH (YHUJODGHV 'HFLVLRQV UHÀHFWLQJ WKH QHFHVVDU\ WUDGHRIIV among different stakeholder groups were often characterized by lengthy and expensive lawsuits. Full funding from the federal government in Washington KDGQRWEHHQIRUWKFRPLQJ$XWKRUL]DWLRQPHFKDQLVPVZHUHLQHI¿FLHQWDQGSUHFOXGHG D V\VWHPDWLF DSSURDFK WR DQDO\]H FRVWV DQG EHQH¿WV DFURVV PXOWLSOH SURMHFWV7KHUHVXOWLQJGHOD\VLQUHDOSURJUHVVRQWKHJURXQGDOORZHGWKHFRQWLQued ecological decline of the region. Currently, the anticipated total costs of land DQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQWLQXHWRJURZGXHWRLQÀDWLRQDQGWKHSRSXODWLRQJURZWK RI VRXWKHUQ )ORULGD 7KH FRQWLQXHG H[SDQVLRQ RI XUEDQL]HG DUHDV LV SXWWLQJ human demands for land and water in potential competition with ecosystem restoration (NRC 2008a). What this case study seems to tell us so far is that while everyone wants a more viable Everglades, everyone also wants to make sure their other objectives, PHWE\ZDWHURUPRQH\DUHDOVRVDWLV¿HG,QVXULQJUHOLDEOHDJULFXOWXUDOLQGXVtrial, and urban water supplies and keeping those living in South Florida dry are not always compatible with “getting the water right” for ecosystem vitality. Nor is spending money on removing canals and water diversion structures a way to improve the education and health care programs in Florida or the United States, IRUH[DPSOH7KHTXHVWLRQZLOODOZD\VEH³:LOOWKHUHEHDVXVWDLQHGLQWHUHVWLQ the capitals of Florida and the United States for restoring this unique Everglades ecosystem over the next several decades that it might take to do it?” And by that WLPHZLOOLWEHWRRODWHEHFDXVHRISRVVLEOHVHDOHYHOULVH67& " The Aral Sea Once the world’s fourth-largest inland sea, the Aral Sea (Figure 9.8) has been steadily shrinking since the 1960s, after the rivers Amu Darya and Syr Darya that fed it were diverted primarily for the irrigation of cotton and rice. By 2004, WKHVHDKDGVKUXQNWRDTXDUWHURILWVRULJLQDOVXUIDFHDUHDDQGDQHDUO\¿YHIROG LQFUHDVHLQVDOLQLW\KDGNLOOHGPRVWRILWVQDWXUDOÀRUDDQGIDXQD%\LWKDG

184 D.P. Loucks

Russia

Kazakhstan Syr D

arya

Aral Sea

Am

Kyrgyz Rep. Naryn

uD

ar ya Uzbekistan

Caspian Sea

Tajikistan Turkmenistan

China

Iran Afghanistan

India Pakistan

Figure 9.8 7KH$UDO6HD5HJLRQLQ&HQWUDO$VLD7KHODNHERXQGDU\VKRZQUHÀHFWVZKDW it was around 1960. Current countries with any land draining into the lake are shown in light gray.

declined to about 10 percent of its original size, splitting into three separate lakes ±WZRRIZKLFKDUHWRRVDOW\WRVXSSRUW¿VK7KHRQFHSURVSHURXV¿VKLQJLQGXVWU\ KDV EHHQ YLUWXDOO\ GHVWUR\HG DQG IRUPHU ¿VKLQJ WRZQV DORQJ WKH RULJLQDO shores have become ship graveyards. With this collapse has come unemployment and economic hardship. Windblown salt from the dried seabed damages crops, pollutes drinking water, and FDXVHV VHULRXV SXEOLF KHDOWK SUREOHPV 7KH $UDO 6HD LV DOVR KHDYLO\ SROOXWHG largely as the result of military (pathogenic weapon) and industrial activities and UXQRII RI SHVWLFLGHV DQG IHUWLOL]HU 7KH UHWUHDW RI WKH VHD KDV UHSRUWHGO\ DOVR caused local climate change, with summers becoming hotter and drier, and winters colder and longer.4 An ongoing effort in Kazakhstan is striving to save and replenish what remains of the northern part of the Aral Sea (the Small Aral). A dam project completed in KDV UDLVHG WKH ZDWHU OHYHO RI WKLV ODNH 6DOLQLW\ KDV GURSSHG DQG ¿VK DUH DJDLQIRXQGLQVXI¿FLHQWQXPEHUVIRUVRPH¿VKLQJWREHYLDEOH$QHZGDPLVWR be built in the future to further expand the shrunken Northern Aral.

Optimizing water for life 185 7KH6RXWK$UDO6HDOLHVODUJHO\LQSRRUHU8]EHNLVWDQ8]EHNLVWDQVKRZVOLWWOH interest in abandoning the Amu Darya river as an abundant source of cotton irrigation, and instead is moving toward oil exploration in the drying South Aral VHDEHG 7KH HFRQRPLF EHQH¿WV IURP WKHVH DFWLYLWLHV DUH GHHPHG JUHDWHU WKDQ those resulting from the restoration of the far larger southern part of the sea (the /DUJH$UDO 5 :KLOH HIIRUWVWR UHVWRUHWKH$UDO6HD KDYHUHFHLYHG FRQVLGHUDEOH ¿QDQFLDO aid from many countries and the international development banks, no conclusive all-encompassing integrated drainage basin-based program has yet to be implemented. In the meantime the Sea continues to dry up, drinking water remains contaminated, and croplands yield less and less while pollution increases. In spite of the dams being built, whether there will be an Aral Sea in the future remains a debatable question, and whether the proposed and approved programs actually assist the suffering people of the basins remains to be seen. Once again, is there and will there be a sustained political will by those who can make it happen? In this case study, clear tradeoffs are DSSDUHQW DPRQJ WKH RIWHQFRQÀLFWLQJ REMHFWLYHV RI WKH EDVLQ FRXQWULHV DQG among the outside donors, making the restoration efforts less effective than they could be. The Chesapeake Bay 7KH&KHVDSHDNH%D\)LJXUH LVWKHODUJHVWHVWXDU\LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV,WV ZDWHUVKHGLVWKHKRPHWRURXJKO\PLOOLRQSHRSOH7KH%D\VXSSRUWVPRUHWKDQ VSHFLHV RI ¿Q¿VK VSHFLHV RI VKHOO¿VK DQG PRUH WKDQ SODQW species. In addition, the region is home to 29 species of waterfowl and is a major resting ground along the Atlantic Migratory Bird Flyway. Every year, about one million waterfowl winter in the Bay watershed.6 Population growth and development, point and non-point source pollution, RYHU¿VKLQJDQGK\GURORJLFDODQGODQGXVHPRGL¿FDWLRQKDYHVHULRXVO\LPSDFWHG WKH &KHVDSHDNH %D\ 7KH &KHVDSHDNH HFRV\VWHP LV LQ FRPSHWLWLRQ ZLWK UHVLGHQWV DJULFXOWXUH ¿VKHUPHQ VKLSSLQJ UHFUHDWLRQ DQG LQGXVWU\ 7UDGHRIIV among these uses of the estuary restrict any from reaching their full potential. Most of the people who live within the Chesapeake Bay watershed are clustered around the Bay and its tidal rivers. Agricultural lands make up nearly one-third of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Cattle and poultry farmers are major contributors to the nutrient loadings in the estuary and bay, and are among the major stakeholders that must be LQYROYHG LQ LWV UHVWRUDWLRQ 6KLSSLQJ LV DQRWKHU PDMRU VWDNHKROGHU 7KH &KHVDSHDNH %D\ LQFOXGHV WZR RI WKH ¿YH PDMRU $WODQWLF SRUWV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7KRVHXVLQJWKHED\IRUUHFUHDWLRQ±LQFOXGLQJ¿VKLQJERDWLQJFUDEELQJVZLPming, hunting, and camping – are also important stakeholders and, together with shipping, contribute billions of dollars annually to the economy of the region. Finally, industries, including shipbuilding and power production, rely on large YROXPHVRIZDWHUIURPWKH&KHVDSHDNHIRULQGXVWULDOSURFHVVHVDQGFRROLQJ7KH

186 D.P. Loucks

Figure 9.9 Chesapeake Bay on the eastern coast of the United States (source www. esva.com).

DFWLRQV RI DOO WKHVH VWDNHKROGHUV LQÀXHQFH WKH VWDWH RI WKH HFRV\VWHP LQ WKH estuary and bay. All want it improved, but how much are they willing to change what they do in ways that will lead to improvement? 7KH &KHVDSHDNH UHVWRUDWLRQ HIIRUW KDV EHHQ XQGHU ZD\ IRU DURXQG \HDUV 7KHUHKDYHEHHQVRPHVXFFHVVHVDVZHOODVVRPHVHWEDFNV2YHUDOOKRZHYHUWKH restoration effort has helped decrease the rate of degradation. Considering the growth and development that the Chesapeake watershed has experienced over WKHVDPHSHULRGRIWLPHWKDWLVDVLJQL¿FDQWDFFRPSOLVKPHQW While some progress towards reducing the degradation of the environmental quality of the water in the bay, and the health of its ecosystem, has been made, PRUHLVQHHGHGWRDFWXDOO\LPSURYHWKHPLQWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\/DFNLQJWRGD\ are the incentives needed for all stakeholders to work toward a comprehensive and cooperative plan and program to restore the Chesapeake ecosystem.7 Unlike the Everglades, this restoration effort is not driven by multi-billion-dollar government grants, but like the Everglades, it is not clear the current effort is going to work. Only time will tell.

Optimizing water for life 187

Figure 9.10 7KH5LYHU0XUUD\LQ$XVWUDOLDVRXUFHZZZJHPRFPTHGXDX3DUWLFLSDQWV Research/ADosseto/research.html).

The Murray and Darling rivers of Southern Australia 7KH ZDWHUV RI WKH 0XUUD\ 5LYHU DQG LWV PDMRU WULEXWDU\ WKH 'DUOLQJ 5LYHU )LJXUH ÀRZWKURXJKWKHFHQWHURIORZHU6RXWKHUQ$XVWUDOLD7KHKHDOWKRI WKH0XUUD\5LYHUKDVGHFOLQHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\VLQFH(XURSHDQVHWWOHPHQWSDUWLFXODUO\ GXH WR ULYHU UHJXODWLRQ 'DPV KDYH DOWHUHG WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ULYHU ÀRZV DQGLUULJDWLRQGLYHUVLRQVDQGGURXJKWKDYHUHGXFHGWKHULYHUÀRZV7KHVHGDPV FKDQJHGWKHSDWWHUQVRIWKHULYHU¶VQDWXUDOÀRZIURPWKHRULJLQDOZLQWHUVSULQJ ÀRRGDQGVXPPHUDXWXPQGU\WRWKHSUHVHQWORZOHYHOWKURXJKZLQWHUDQGKLJKHU GXULQJ VXPPHU 7KHVH FKDQJHV HQVXUHG WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI ZDWHU IRU LUULJDWLRQ and made the Murray Valley a productive agricultural region but, in so doing, have disrupted the life cycles of many ecosystems both inside and outside the ULYHU0XFKRILWVDTXDWLFOLIHLQFOXGLQJQDWLYH¿VK DUHQRZGHFOLQLQJUDUHRU endangered. 7KH GLVUXSWLRQ RI WKH ULYHU¶V QDWXUDO ÀRZ UXQRII IURP DJULFXOWXUH DQG WKH introduction of pest species, like the European Carp, has caused environmental damage along the river’s length and concerns that the river will become too salty

188 D.P. Loucks in the medium to long term – a serious problem, given that the Murray supplies 40 percent of Adelaide’s domestic water. Dryland salinity now threatens agricultural productivity. 2IWHQLQUHVWRUDWLRQHIIRUWVWKHSHUFHSWLRQLVWKDWWKHUHDUHFRQÀLFWVEHWZHHQ HFRQRPLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOREMHFWLYHV/D\]HU :KLOHWKLVPD\EHWUXH in some regions, in the Murray-Darling basin there is the perception that a healthy river is essential to a healthy regional economy. A clean river is essential IRU$GHODLGH¶VVDIHGULQNLQJZDWHUIRUWKH¿VKLQJLQGXVWU\DQGIRUUHFUHDWLRQ± DOORIZKLFKWUDQVODWHVWRHPSOR\PHQW(DFK\HDUWKHHFRQRP\EHQH¿WVIURPWKH SHRSOHZKRFRPHWRWKH0XUUD\5LYHUWRVSHQGWLPHERDWLQJDQG¿VKLQJ7KHLU numbers depend on the quality of the water and its aquatic ecosystems that the ¿VKGHSHQGRQ In this basin, as in others, trade-offs must be made to achieve a proper balance among all competing water uses. In 1997, in response to the rapid deterioration of the river’s health, resource ministers from each basin state or territory, plus the commonwealth, placed a limit on the amount of diversions from the basin. With a restriction on extractions, new water demands in the Murray-Darling EDVLQ DUH PHW SULPDULO\ WKURXJK FRQVHUYDWLRQ HI¿FLHQF\ LPSURYHPHQWV DQG water trading. With virtually all of the traded water going to higher-value uses, water marketing is boosting the basin’s money economy. While it may improve WKH HFRQRP\ WKH GLYHUVLRQ UHVWULFWLRQ LV QRW VXI¿FLHQWO\ VWULQJHQW WR UHYLWDOL]H the river. It is still unclear whether the instream water needed for the Murray River environment will be forthcoming voluntarily or whether mandatory measures will be required.8 Upper Mississippi River System 7KH 8SSHU 0LVVLVVLSSL 5LYHU 6\VWHP VHH )LJXUH LV D PLOH PXOWL SXUSRVHZDWHUZD\OLQNLQJ¿YHVWDWHVWRWKH*XOI&RDVWH[SRUWPDUNHWV,WFRQVLVWV of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, and several important tributaries. &RPPHUFLDO QDYLJDWLRQ UHFUHDWLRQ DQG ¿VK DQG ZLOGOLIH DOO ÀRXULVK RQ WKH Upper Mississippi. In addition, the region’s more than 30 million residents rely on river water for public and industrial supplies, power plant cooling, wastewater assimilation, and other uses. Recreation opportunities include boating, ¿VKLQJ VZLPPLQJ RU VLPSO\ HQMR\LQJ WKH ULYHU¶V EHDXW\ $QQXDO UHFUHDWLRQDO expenditures on the Upper Mississippi River System exceed $1.2 billion (USGS 2007). 7KH ULYHU HFRV\VWHP LV KRPH WR D GLYHUVH DUUD\ RI ¿VK DQG ZLOGOLIH 7KH Mississippi Flyway is the migration corridor for 40 percent of North America’s waterfowl and shorebirds. A 40-mile reach of the Upper Mississippi River has been characterized as the single most important inland area for migrating diving GXFNVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV7KH)O\ZD\LVDOVRDQLPSRUWDQWPLJUDWLRQFRUULGRU for raptors and neotropical songbirds. Portions of the river provide habitat for breeding and wintering birds, including the bald eagle. Five National Wildlife

Optimizing water for life 189

Figure 9.11 Subbasins of the Mississippi River, and the Gulf of Mexico (source: www. watersheds.org/places/extension/mississippi.htm).

Refuges protect more than 300,000 acres of wooded islands, water, and wetlands along the river corridor (USFWS 2009). 7RGD\ VRPH WR PLOOLRQ WRQV RI FDUJR DUH VKLSSHG DQQXDOO\ EHWZHHQ Minneapolis and the mouth of the Missouri River via a nine-foot navigation channel, with 29 locks and dams on the Mississippi and eight on the Illinois. 5LYHUPRGL¿FDWLRQVFRQWUROSURMHFWVDQGÀRRGSODLQGHYHORSPHQWKDYHDGYHUVHO\ LPSDFWHGWKHÀRRGSODLQHFRV\VWHP2IWKHQHDUO\DFUHVLQWKH8SSHU 0LVVLVVLSSL5LYHUÀRRGSODLQSHUFHQWDUHQRZXVHGIRUFURSDQGSDVWXUHODQG 7KHVH DJULFXOWXUH ODQGV DUH LVRODWHG IURP WKH QRUPDO ÀRRGSODLQ IXQFWLRQ E\ extensive levee systems. Although lock and dam construction originally created DVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVHLQDQGGLYHUVLW\RIKDELWDWIRU¿VKDQGZLOGOLIHVHGLPHQWDtion has since resulted in substantial degradation (NRC 2008b). In 1986, Congress designated the Upper Mississippi River System as both a QDWLRQDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWHFRV\VWHPDQGDQDWLRQDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWQDYLJDWLRQV\VWHP and directed that it be administered and regulated in recognition of those and other purposes. It established the Environmental Management Program (EMP) WRVXSSRUWWKHQHHGVRIWKHHFRV\VWHP7KH(03XQGHUWKHGLUHFWLRQRIWKH86 $UP\&RUSVRI(QJLQHHUVKDVWZRFRPSRQHQWV±WKH/RQJ7HUP5HVRXUFH0RQLWRULQJ3URJUDP/7503 DQG+DELWDW5HKDELOLWDWLRQDQG(QKDQFHPHQW3URMHFWV +5(36 7RJHWKHU WKHVH WZR FRPSRQHQWV DUH GHVLJQHG WR PRQLWRU WKH ULYHU¶V

190 D.P. Loucks health, as well as to restore habitat along the 1,200 miles of the commercially navigable portion of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers and lower sections of several major tributaries. But the Corps also manages the river’s navigation system. Recently, the Navigation and Ecosystem Sustainability Program (NESP), a new river ecosystem restoration program led by the US Army Corps of Engineers, is designed to develop a 50-year vision for navigation improvements and ecosystem restoration on the Upper Mississippi River. Here the Corps is responsible for balDQFLQJWKHVHWZRRIWHQFRQÀLFWLQJREMHFWLYHV:DWHUOHYHOPDQDJHPHQWSURYLGHVD ZD\WRUHVWRUHWKHQHFHVVDU\VHDVRQDOÀXFWXDWLRQLQZDWHUOHYHOVWKDWIDYRUVFRQditions needed for reestablishment of a more viable ecosystem, but these levels RIWHQDUHLQFRQÀLFWZLWKGHVLUHGOHYHOVIRUQDYLJDWLRQDQGRWKHUXVHV9 European Union freshwater ecosystems With passage of its Water Framework Directive (WFD) in 2000, the European Union (EU) took an important step toward the protection of freshwater ecosystems. Up until that time, the EU had primarily focused on water quality concerns, but the newer WFD represents a more comprehensive approach to

Figure 9.12 Major rivers in Europe, including the Danube and Rhine (source: www. onlinemaps.blogspot.com/2010/07/europe-river-basins.html).

Optimizing water for life 191 IUHVKZDWHUHFRV\VWHPKHDOWK7KHGLUHFWLYHHVWDEOLVKHGFULWHULDIRUFODVVLI\LQJWKH ecological status of rivers (and other water bodies) as high, good, moderate, poor, or bad, depending upon how much the water body’s ecological characteristics deviate from a natural or undisturbed condition. Member countries are required to take measures to ensure that at least a “good status of surface water and groundwater is achieved. . .and that deterioration in the status of waters is prevented” (EU 2000). Each member country has responsibility for translating the directive into legislation and for adopting implementation measures, which DUH OLNHO\ WR LQFOXGH FRQWUROV RQ ZDWHU ZLWKGUDZDOV DQG ÀRZ DOWHUDWLRQV 7KH directive establishes criteria for classifying the ecological status of rivers, includLQJ ULYHU ÀRZ DQG FKDQQHO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 2I WKH ULYHU EDVLQV LGHQWL¿HG within EU member states, 40 cross national borders. With these 40 international basins constituting 60 percent of the EU’s territory, cooperation among countries is critical for successful implementation of the WFD.10 7KH(8GLUHFWLYHUHFRJQL]HVWKHSRWHQWLDOFRQÀLFWDPRQJGLIIHUHQWZDWHUXVHV and objectives. Uses that adversely affect the status of water but are considered essential are given priority so long as appropriate mitigation measures are taken. ([DPSOHV DUH WKH SURYLVLRQ RI ÀRRG SURWHFWLRQ DQG HVVHQWLDO GULQNLQJ ZDWHU VXSSOLHV /HVV FOHDUFXW H[DPSOHV RI SRWHQWLDO FRQÀLFWLQJ ZDWHU XVHV DUH navigation and power generation, for which alternative methods may be used for satisfying these needs (transport can be switched to land, other means of power generation can be used). Alternative approaches are required unless they are technically impossible, they are prohibitively expensive, or they produce worse overall environmental conditions. Not all rivers in the EU are receiving equal attention toward their restoration. It may be too early to judge the effectiveness of the EU’s efforts in river restoration, as pressures continue to provide increased supplies and increased ÀRRG SURWHFWLRQ 1RQHWKHOHVV PRVW PHPEHU VWDWHV KDYH PDGH VLJQL¿FDQW progress since the Water Framework Directive came into force. Among the shortcomings to date is the inadequate transposition of the WFD into national law. Knowing those water bodies that are unlikely to achieve the WFD objectives is a critical part of the knowledge required to develop effective river basin PDQDJHPHQW SODQV 2IWHQ LQVXI¿FLHQW GDWD LV DYDLODEOH WR GR WKLV DQG LQ VRPH FDVHVLQVXI¿FLHQWFRPPLWPHQWWRJDWKHULQJWKHQHHGHGGDWD3RVWHO Others 7KHOLVWRIH[DPSOHULYHUUHVWRUDWLRQSURMHFWVFRXOGFRQWLQXH:KDWRQHFDQOHDUQ from those discussed above, as well as numerous others, is that river restoration efforts must compete with other purposes, and some of those purposes directly oppose the actions needed for restoration. A balance must be achieved, and LQGHHG ZKLOH RIWHQ GLI¿FXOW WR TXDQWLI\ VXEVWDQWLDO HFRQRPLF DV ZHOO DV VRFLDO DQGSXEOLFKHDOWKEHQH¿WVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVXFFHVVIXOUHVWRUDWLRQUHVXOWV2SWLmizing water for our lives requires paying attention to the lives of other living organisms as well.

192 D.P. Loucks

Management actions and challenges Human society is served in the long term by ecosystem sustainability. We must develop policies that more equitably allocate water resources between natural HFRV\VWHPIXQFWLRQDQGVRFLHWDOQHHGV2XUZHOIDUHGHSHQGVRQLW3&$67 How can society extract the water resources it needs while not diminishing the important natural complexity and adaptive capacity of freshwater ecosystems? 7KH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI IUHVKZDWHU HFRV\VWHPV DUH RIWHQ DW RGGV ZLWK KXPDQ activity, although this need not always be the case. Our present state of ecological understanding of how freshwater ecosystems function allows us to elaborate the requirements of freshwater ecosystems regarding adequate quantity, quality, and WLPLQJRIZDWHUÀRZ(IIHFWLYHDQGWLPHO\FRPPXQLFDWLRQRIWKHVHUHTXLUHPHQWV to a broad community is a critical step for including freshwater ecosystem needs in future water allocation decisions. Stakeholders must be involved in decision making if any restoration policies are to be sustainable. And that is a major challenge to the water resources management profession (Gerlak and Heikkila 2006; Gerlak 2008). )RUVFLHQWL¿FNQRZOHGJHWREHLPSOHPHQWHGVFLHQFHPXVWEHFRQQHFWHGWRWKH political decision-making process. Scientists must explicitly identify and incorporate aquatic ecosystem needs in national and regional water management plans DQGSROLFLHV7KH\PXVWLQFOXGHZDWHUVKHGVDVZHOODVZDWHULQWKRVHSODQVDQG policies so that water resource allocation decisions are viewed within a landscape, or systems context. Scientists must educate and communicate across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of water resource management. Regional environmental managers must include restoration efforts and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines. All stakeholders must recognize and acknowledge the dependence of human welfare on naturally functioning ecosystems. All must assist in the development of coherent policies that equitably allocate water to maintain functioning natural ecosystems as well as meeting other societal needs (Hinrichsen et al. 1997). Clearly, more research is needed to help identify just how this can best be GRQH LQ VSHFL¿F VLWXDWLRQV LQ WKH IDFH RI QRQFRPPHQVXUDWH TXDQWLWDWLYH DQG qualitative performance measures.

Conclusion Ecological processes are often viewed as occurring in remote and exotic places, QRWDVHVVHQWLDOWRRXUGDLO\OLYHVRUVWURQJO\LQÀXHQFHGE\RXUDFWLRQV(FRV\Vtem sustainability requires that human society recognizes, internalizes, ands act upon the interdependence of people and the environment in which they live and DUHDSDUW7KLVZLOOUHTXLUHEURDGUHFRJQLWLRQRIWKHVRXUFHVDQGXVHVRIZDWHU for human health, societal, and ecological needs. It will also require taking a much longer time view of water resource management and its associated infrastructure.

Optimizing water for life 193 Water delivery systems, including dams, are developed with lifespans of decades, and some operate over a century. Aquatic ecosystems have evolved over much longer periods of time, and their sustainability must be considered for a long period to come. Governmental policies, mass media, and marketGULYHQ HFRQRPLHV DOO WHQG WR IRFXV PRUH RQ SHUFHLYHG VKRUWWHUP EHQH¿WV /RFDOZDWHUVKHGJURXSVLQWHUHVWHGLQSURWHFWLQJWKHLUQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVSURYLGH D ¿UVW VWHS WRZDUG ORQJWHUP VWHZDUGVKLS 7KH\ QHHG WR EH PDWFKHG E\ VWDWH and national policies that recognize that fundamental human needs for water will continue on forever (or certainly into the distant future) and can only be sustained through decisions that preserve the life-support systems in the long term. Water uses, as critical or desired as they are, that have negative impacts on the environment cannot be sustained. Especially in times of water scarcity, the environment may have to suffer somewhat because of higher priority uses, but it FDQQRWVXIIHUIRUORQJ%\VDWLVI\LQJWKHQHHGIRUQDWXUDOO\YDU\LQJÀRZUHJLPHV and reduced pollutant and nutrient inputs, natural aquatic ecosystems can be maintained or restored to a sustainable state that will continue to provide the amenities and services society requires and has come to expect. Managers are challenged, especially in times of water stress, to meet both humans and ecosystem needs, now and in the future. And with increasing population pressures and climate change impacts, periods of water stress will likely increase in duration and intensity. It is indeed time to focus our attention on how best to allocate our increasingly variable and uncertain water supplies to meet increasing demands in a way that optimizes water for all life, for the sake of our own and that of our descendents.

Notes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

See also http://china.org.cn/english/2003/Sep/76069.htm. See www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=121. See www.evergladesplan.org for details. See www.africanwater.org/aral.htm for more information. Further details can be found at www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/aral-sea.html DQGKWWSJRZRUOGEDQNRUJ8,)'< See www.chesapeakebay.net/aboutbay.aspx?menuitem=13953. More information can be found at www.chesapeakebay.net. www.environment.gov.au/water/locations/murray-darling-basin/index.html and www. mdba.gov.au provide further details. See www2.mvr.usace.army.mil/UMRS/NESP. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/info/intro_en.htm has more information.

References &KHQJ + <XDQDQ + DQG =KDR - 0HHWLQJ &KLQD¶V ZDWHU VKRUWDJH FULVLV Current practices and challenges, Environmental Science and Technology, 43(2): 240–244

194 D.P. Loucks &RVWDQ]D5G¶$UJH5GH*URRW56)DUEHU6*UDVVR0+DQQRQ%/LPEXUJ K., Naeem, S., O’Neill, R.V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R.G., Sutton, P., and van den Belt, 0 7KH YDOXH RI WKH ZRUOG¶V HFRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV DQG QDWXUDO FDSLWDO Nature, 387: 253–260, online, available at: www.uvm.edu/giee/publications/ Nature_Paper.pdf [accessed February 2, 2009]. Daily, G.C. (ed.) (1997) Nature’s Services: Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, Washington, DC: Island Press. DOE (US Department of Energy) (2006) Energy demands on water resources: Report to congress on the interdependency of energy and water, December: 31 Doyle, M. and Drew C. (eds.) (2008) Large-Scale Ecosystem Restoration: Five Case Studies from the United States, Washington, DC: Island Press. (FRORJLFDO 6RFLHW\ RI $PHULFD (FRV\VWHP VHUYLFHV %HQH¿WV VXSSOLHG WR KXPDQ societies by natural ecosystems, Issues in Ecology, No. 2, Spring, online, available at: www.epa.gov/owow/watershed/wacademy/acad2000/pdf/issue2.pdf. EPRI (Electricity Power Research Institute) (2002) Water & Sustainability Vol. 3: US water consumption for power production – The next half century: Techincal Report, Palo Alto, CA: EPRI. EU (European Parliament and Council of the European Union) (2000) Directive 2000/60/ EC Establishing a Framework for Community Action in the Field of Water Policy, 2I¿FLDO-RXUQDORIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLWLHV'HFHPEHU/±. )LVFKOLQ $ 0LGJOH\ *) 3ULFH -7 /HHPDQV 5 *RSDO % 7XUOH\ & 5RXQVHYHOO 0'$'XEH237DUD]RQD-DQG9HOLFKNR$$ (FRV\VWHPVWKHLUSURSHUWLHV goods, and services, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental 3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH0/3DUU\2)&DQ]LDQL-33DOXWLNRI3-YDQGHU/LQGHQ and C.E. Hanson (eds.), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 211–272. *HUODN $. 7RGD\¶V SUDJPDWLF ZDWHU SROLF\ 5HVWRUDWLRQ FROODERUDWLRQ DQG adaptive management along U.S. rivers, Society and Natural Resources, 21(6): 538–545. *HUODN$.DQG+HLNNLOD7 &RPSDULQJFROODERUDWLYHPHFKDQLVPVLQODUJHVFDOH ecosystem governance, Natural Resources Journal, 46(3): 657–707. Gleick, P.H. (1998) Water in crisis: Paths to sustainable water use, Ecological Applications, 8(3): 571–579. Hinrichsen, D., Robey, B., and Upadhyay, U.D. (1997) Solutions for a water-short world, Population Reports, Series M, No. 14, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Population Information Program, online, available at: http://info.k4health.org/ pr/m14edsum.shtml. Hughes, F.M.R., Colston, A., and Mountford, J.O. (2005) Restoring riparian ecosystems: 7KH FKDOOHQJH RI DFFRPPRGDWLQJ YDULDELOLW\ DQG GHVLJQLQJ UHVWRUDWLRQ WUDMHFWRULHV Ecology and Society, 10(1): Article 12, online, available at: www.ecologyandsociety. org/vol10/iss1/art12. ,QDQ< The Law of Transboundary Rivers and the Case of Euphrates and Tigris, )RXUWK %LHQQLDO 5RVHQEHUJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO )RUXP RQ :DWHU 3ROLF\ $QNDUD 7XUNH\ September. Kates, R.W., &ODUN:&&RUHOO5+DOO-0-DHJHU&&/RZH,0F&DUWK\-- Schellnhuber, H.J., Bolin, B., Dickson, N.M., Faucheux, S., Gallopin, G.C., Grübler, A., Huntley, B., Jäger, J., Jodha, N.S., Kasperson, R.E., Mabogunje, A., Matson, P., 0RRQH\+0RRUH,,,%2¶5LRUGDQ76YHGOLQ8 (2001) Environment and development: Sustainability science, Science, 292(5517): 641–642.

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Part V

Revitalized water governance

10 Water science and policy in a changing world Perceptions from a practitioner John Briscoe

Introduction The approach taken in this chapter is a departure from normal academic practice. It draws heavily upon the author’s decades of engagement in the practical business of improving water services and policy in developing countries. It focuses on two dimensions of the political economy of water science and policy. Dimension One is an exploration of what is known about the political economy of actual decision-making in the developing world. Dimension Two is an exploration of the rapidly changing relationships between the “post-development, concept-rich” view of those who dominate the global water conversations, and the grimy reality of a politics-driven, development-focused view that actually drives water policy and practice in the developing world.

Dimension One: What drives actual water development and management decisions, and what are the implicit “rules for reformers”? Global discussions of water science and policy are dominated by normative views of what constitute a “sound and sustainable water sector.” A few of the more prominent examples include:

³,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV 0DQDJHPHQW´ ,:50 ZKLFK KDV EHHQ DGYRFDWHGE\WKH*OREDO:DWHU3DUWQHUVKLSDQGPDQ\RWKHUV,:50LVRIWHQ taken to mean that only integrated, holistic policies and actions are valid – despite the fact that no currently developed country has developed in this way, and despite the fact that there is no evidence that such approaches are SUDFWLFDO2(' ³5LYHUEDVLQPDQDJHPHQW´ZKLFKDGYRFDWHVQHZLQVWLWXWLRQDODUUDQJHPHQWV that supplant the old boundaries of district, state, and nation, despite the fact that only a very small proportion of proposed river basin organizations actually survive. 7KHJXLGHOLQHVRIWKH:RUOG&RPPLVVLRQRQ'DPVDKLJKOHYHODUWLFXODWLRQ of the normative view of those who oppose large infrastructure. It is striking

J. Briscoe that while the guidelines were lauded by many rich country governments ZLWKWKHFKDLUDZDUGHGPDQ\SUL]HVLQFOXGLQJWKH6WRFNKROP:DWHU3UL]H middle-income countries emphatically rejected the guidelines as a prescripWLRQIRUSHUSHWXDWLQJSRYHUW\0LGGOHLQFRPHDQGSRRUFRXQWULHVSRLQWHGRXW DVGLGWKH:RUOG%DQN:RUOG%DQN WKDWWKH:&'JXLGHOLQHVZHUHQRW only not followed by any currently developed country but, in fact, no rich country could comply with the guidelines. Anti-dam NGOs who exerted large LQÀXHQFH RQ WKH :&' ERDVWHG DERXW KRZ WKH\ KDG PDUJLQDOL]HG PLGGOH LQFRPHFRXQWULHVIURPWKHSURFHVV0F&XOO\ $QGZKHQPLGGOHLQFRPH FRXQWULHV UHMHFWHG WKH :&' UHSRUW WKH SDWHUQDOLVWLF 1*2V DWWULEXWHG WKLV rejection not to the elected governments of these countries, but to nefarious LQGLYLGXDOVLQWKH:RUOG%DQN³ZKRPDGHWKHPGRLW´,51 Other, more subtle, statements in the global policy arena focus less on a normative view and more on principles derived from an assessment of historic H[SHULHQFH3HUKDSVWKHPRVWSURPLQHQWRIWKHVHLVWKH'XEOLQ6WDWHPHQWRIWKH SUH81&(' &RQIHUHQFH RQ :DWHU DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFHRQ:DWHUDQG(QYLURQPHQW ZKLFKGH¿QHV:RUOG%DQN

WKH³HFRORJLFDOSULQFLSOH´UHTXLULQJWKHKROLVWLFPDQDJHPHQWRIZDWHU WKH ³LQVWLWXWLRQDO SULQFLSOH´ UHTXLULQJ WKDW PDQDJHPHQW EH SDUWLFLSDWRU\ with responsibility “at the lowest appropriate level,” and with greater LQYROYHPHQWRIFLYLOVRFLHW\DQGWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUDQGZRPHQDQG WKH³LQVWUXPHQWSULQFLSOH´UHTXLULQJWKDWZDWHUEHPDQDJHGDVDQHFRQRPLF resource.

,PSOLFLWLQWKH'XEOLQ6WDWHPHQWZDVWKHUHDOLW\WKDWWKH³QH[WVWHS´ZDVQRW ³ULJLGL]DWLRQ´RIWKHVHSULQFLSOHVLQWRWKHQRUPDWLYHYLHZVGHVFULEHGDERYHDQG PDQ\RWKHUV EXWDQH[SORUDWLRQRIKRZWKHVHSULQFLSOHVZRXOGEHWUDQVODWHGLQWR practice in a wide variety of historical, political, economic, and natural circumstances. There has been some progress. 2QHLPSRUWDQWH[DPSOHLVWKDWRIWKH:RUOG%DQN:RUOG%DQN ZKLFK recognized that the hallmark of sound water policy was “principled pragmatism” ± LQ ZKLFK SULQFLSOHV VXFK DV WKRVH RI 'XEOLQ ZHUH HVVHQWLDO EXW LQ ZKLFK translation in any context would depend heavily on history, political organization, the level of economic development, and natural resource endowments. 6XPPDUL]LQJDPRUHGHWDLOHGJHQHUDOWUHDWPHQW%ULVFRH DQGFRXQWU\ VSHFL¿F DQDO\VHV RI ,QGLD DQG 3DNLVWDQ %ULVFRH DQG 0DOLN DQG %ULVFRH DQG4DPDU WKHPDLQOHVVRQVWREHJOHDQHG±WKH³UXOHVIRUUHIRUPHUV´± from this growing body of experience are summarized below. Rule #1: There must be a demand for reform 7KH ¿UVW UHTXLUHPHQW IRU UHIRUP LV WKDW WKHUH PXVW EH D GHPDQG IRU UHIRUP 8QOHVV WKH VKRH SLQFKHV UHIRUP LV XQOLNHO\ WR WDNH SODFH 6WUHVVHV GXH WR

Water science and policy in a changing world GHFOLQLQJZDWHUTXDOLW\PRWLYDWHGWKHVDQLWDU\UHYROXWLRQLQWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP ³,QGLDLVUHYROWLQJDQGWKH7KDPHVVWLQNV´ZDVWKHFU\LQ DQGWKHLQLWLDWLRQRIWKHLFRQLFULYHUEDVLQPDQDJHPHQWH[SHULHQFHWKH5XKULQ*HUPDQ\LQ WKHHDUO\SDUWRIWKHWZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\ 6WUHVVHVGXHWRVFDUFLW\KDYHXQGHUODLQ WKHPDMRUDGYDQFHVLQWKHGH¿QLWLRQDQGPDQDJHPHQWRIZDWHUULJKWVLQ6SDLQIRU FHQWXULHV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV VWDUWLQJ LQ WKH QLQHWHHQWK FHQWXU\ DQG PRUHUHFHQWO\LQDULG$XVWUDOLDDQG&KLOH/HVV³QDWXUDO´EXWQROHVVLPSRUWDQW are stresses that arise when there are disconnects between the principles that govern scarce resource allocation in an economy, on the one hand, and rigid water use practices on the other. It is this “stress” that has led to the major water UHIRUPV LQ $XVWUDOLD DQG &KLOH LQ UHFHQW GHFDGHV 7KH HVVHQFH RI WKHVH approaches has been to align the water economy with the broader principles of resource allocation in a market economy. The central tool is tradable water rights, with the implicit incentives for scarce water to be applied where the value DGGHGLVJUHDWHVW&XUUHQWH[SHULHQFHLQ$XVWUDOLDZKHUHSHUFHQWUHGXFWLRQV LQZDWHUDOORFDWLRQVLQWKH0XUUD\'DUOLQJ%DVLQKDYHKDGYHU\OLWWOHHFRQRPLF LPSDFWLVDQDFLGWHVWRIWKHUREXVWQHVVRIVXFKLQVWUXPHQWV6HYHUDORWKHUDUHDV RIWKHGHYHORSLQJZRUOGWKDWIDFHZDWHUVFDUFLW\±0H[LFR3XQMDE3URYLQFHLQ 3DNLVWDQ DQG 0DKDUDVKWUD ± KDYH VLPLODUO\ HVWDEOLVKHG ZDWHU HQWLWOHPHQWV DV D fundamental instrument for water management. Rule #2: Water is special – dealing with the “exceptionalism syndrome” :DWHULVDJRRGZLWKVSHFLDOSURSHUWLHV±LWLVWKHEDVLVRIOLIHLWVHOILWLVQRWSURduced, it is unitary, it is fugitive. These particular attributes have long made water “special” in symbolic, religious, and legal terms. It is no wonder, therefore, that there is much skepticism and concern about the effects of reforms that purport to treat water as an economic good. A growing body of experience with market-based solutions to water management show that none of the “doomsday” concerns materialize. Agriculture has QRWHQGHGEXWPRGHUQL]HGDVLOOXVWUDWHGLQWKH$XVWUDOLDQH[SHULHQFHGHVFULEHG DERYH WKH HQYLURQPHQW KDV QRW EHHQ GHVWUR\HG EXW RIWHQ HQKDQFHG GXH WR JUHDWHUHI¿FLHQF\DQGWKHGH¿QLQJRIPRUHH[SOLFLWHQYLURQPHQWDOULJKWV $QG commercial management of water has turned out to be fully compatible with HTXLW\ ERWK E\ UHGXFLQJ VXEVLGLHV WR WKH ULFK DQG E\ XVLQJ WDUJHWHG VXEVLGLHV that ensure that poor consumers both get access and are treated as paying customers. A second aspect of this principle is the importance of looking with a skeptical H\H DW K\GURFHQWULF YLHZV RI WKH ZRUOG ([LVWLQJ LQVWLWXWLRQDO UHDOLWLHV DW WKH national, state, and local levels cannot be wished away by “organization must be LQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHULYHUEDVLQ´6XFFHVVIXOLQWHUMXULVGLFWLRQDOZDWHUPDQDJHment efforts virtually always take administrative realities as a given and then ZRUNDURXQGWKHVHWR¿QGVHFRQGEHVWV3URPLQHQWH[DPSOHVLQFOXGHWKH,QGXV :DWHUV7UHDW\DQGWKH0XUUD\'DUOLQJ%DVLQ&RPPLVVLRQ

J. Briscoe Rule #3: Tailor the reforms to the reality of the problem :KLOHWKHUHDUHFOHDUDQGXQLYHUVDOSULQFLSOHVRQZKDWFRQVWLWXWHVHIIHFWLYHZDWHU management, the details of what can and should be done are enormously variable. It is obvious that context – historical, cultural, legal, institutional, political, economic, and hydrologic – matter a great deal, and that the particulars of DSSURSULDWH VROXWLRQV UHTXLUH FDUHIXO DQG RQJRLQJ DGDSWDWLRQ WR SDUWLFXODU circumstances. The slogan must be “principled pragmatism” – general principles do apply, but these have to be adapted to widely varying natural and economic circumstances. Rule #4: Keep expectations reasonable Treating water as an economic resource is desirable for a wide variety of ecoQRPLFHTXLW\DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOUHDVRQV$QGWKHEHQH¿WVRIWKLVDSSURDFKDUH VXEVWDQWLDO %XW SUHFLVHO\ EHFDXVH FRQWH[W PDWWHUV VR PXFK WKHUH DUH QR UHDG\ VROXWLRQV WKDW FDQ VLPSO\ EH SOXFNHG RII WKH VKHOI DQG QR ³¿QDO VROXWLRQV´ 5HIRUP UHTXLUHV D FRPSOH[ PL[WXUH RI LPSDWLHQFH DQG SDWLHQFH ,PSDWLHQFH LV UHTXLUHGWRPDNHSDUDGLJPVKLIWVEXWWKHQLWPXVWEHUHDOL]HGWKDWLPSOHPHQWDWLRQLVDYHU\ORQJWHUPSURFHVVZKLFKUHTXLUHVSHUVLVWHQFHSDWLHQFHDQGDGMXVWPHQW ([SHULHQFH LQ WKH PRVW VRSKLVWLFDWHG VHWWLQJV VKRZV WKDW SURJUHVV LV measured in decades, not years. And reform is dialectical – solution of one SUREOHP OHDGV WR FKDOOHQJHV DW DQRWKHU KRSHIXOO\ KLJKHU OHYHO D SRLQW LOOXPLnated in a brilliant recent history of water and land management in Germany in ZKLFKWKHDXWKRU%ODFNERXUQ PDNHVWKLVSRLQWYHU\ZHOO³WKHVWDWHRI DUW RI ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW LV DOZD\V SURYLVLRQDO ± VRPHWKLQJ WKDW KLVWRULDQV know well, but hydrological engineers found hard to accept.” Rule #5: Nothing succeeds like success – start where the chances of success are highest 5HIRUPLQJZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVLVQHYHUHDV\(DUO\VXFFHVVHVDUHYLWDOLQ demonstrating that change is possible and in building a broader constituency for UHIRUP 6XFFHVVIXO UHIRUPV KDYH ¿UVW DWWDFNHG WKH UHODWLYHO\ HDV\ SUREOHPV achieved and advertised success, and then built on the momentum of success to DGGUHVVWKHPRUHGLI¿FXOWSUREOHPV$JDLQ$XVWUDOLDLVDFDVHLQSRLQWVWDUWLQJ with water trading within irrigation districts, then within states, then among states. Rule #6: Don’t let the best become the enemy of the good There is no such thing as the perfect water management system. Insisting on perfection is a recipe for inaction – the best can become the enemy of the good. Again, a review of successful reforms show that these are both principled and SUDJPDWLF6HFRQGDQGWKLUGEHVWVROXWLRQVDUHEHWWHUWKDQQRVROXWLRQDWDOO

Water science and policy in a changing world Rule #7: Reforms must provide returns for the politicians who are willing to make the changes Technocrats are well known for complaining that short-sighted, corrupt politiFLDQVDUHZKDWLQKLELWWKHDGRSWLRQRIWKHWHFKQRFUDW¶VH[FHOOHQWLGHDV6RPHWKLV DXWKRU LQFOXGHG ZRXOG DUJXH WKDW SROLWLFLDQV GR QRW DGRSW WKHVH VROXWLRQV EHFDXVHWKH\SROLWLFLDQV KDYHWRWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWDPXFKPRUHFRPSOH[ZRUOG DQG WKDW SROLWLFLDQV DUH RIWHQ TXLWH JRRG DW VHWWLQJ UHDVRQDEOH SULRULWLHV DQG DGMXVWLQJLGHDVWRZKDWLVLPSOHPHQWDEOH(YHQIRUWKRVHZKRGRQRWDJUHHZLWK this rather Panglossian interpretation, the simple fact is that unless reforms are perceived by politicians as furthering their goals, the reforms will simply not be LPSOHPHQWHG ,Q WKH ZRUGV RI 'LJYLMD\ 6LQJK WKHQ FKLHI PLQLVWHU RI 0DGK\D Pradesh, “good water policy must be good politics” if it is to be implemented. Once again, interested readers are referred to much more detailed general disFXVVLRQV%ULVFRH:RUOG%DQN RIWKHVH³UXOHVIRUUHIRUPHUV´DQGWR VSHFL¿FFDVHVRIKRZWKHVHUXOHVSOD\RXWLQODUJHFRXQWULHV%ULVFRHDQG0DOLN %ULVFRHDQG4DPDU

Dimension Two: The non-stationary relationship between the “center and the periphery” and the profound implications for global debates on water policy The underlying thesis of the previous section of this chapter is for principled realism – to see the world as it is and to tailor policies accordingly. This section of the chapter builds on a particular element of the disconnect between policy and reality in the realm of development policy. It makes some suggestions for EULGJLQJ WKH YDVW DQG XQSURGXFWLYH JDS EHWZHHQ RQ WKH RQH KDQG WKH ³SRVW development, concept-rich” view of those who dominate the global water conversations and, on the other hand, the grimy reality of a politics-driven, development-focused view that actually drives water policy and practice in the developing world. This reconciliation is important for both communities. The leaders and people of the developing world recognize that many developing countries face major immediate and imminent water-related challenges. Developing country policy makers want help with policy and implementation, but they need that help to be consistent with the “rules for reformers” outlined above – those who give advice need be clear-eyed about the reality to understand the meaning of trade-offs and second-bests. Developing country policy makers do not want “assistance” derived from idealized views of a world that never H[LVWHG LQ WKH QRZGHYHORSHG ZRUOG 6RPH RI WKH PLGGOHLQFRPH FRXQWULHV 0,&V KDYHQRZGHYHORSHGWKLVFDSDFLW\GRPHVWLFDOO\ However, there is a growing understanding that this is a shrinking world in which we are all, to some degree, in the same boat. And there is also a swelling GHVLUH DPRQJ LQWHOOHFWXDO HOLWHV ZLWQHVV WKH H[SORVLRQ RI LQWHUHVW DQG FRPPLWPHQWLQ8QLWHG6WDWHVXQLYHUVLWLHVIRUH[DPSOH IRUHQJDJHPHQWZLWKWKH VFLHQWL¿FDQGPRUDOFKDOOHQJHVRIGHYHORSPHQW

J. Briscoe

A personal perspective from four decades of engagement It has been my privilege to sit on both sides of this particular fence. On the ideas VLGH RI WKH IHQFH , ZDV WUDLQHG DV D FLYLO HQJLQHHU DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &DSH 7RZQLQWKHVDQGGLGP\JUDGXDWHZRUNLQHQYLURQPHQWDOHQJLQHHULQJDQG HFRQRPLFVDW+DUYDUGLQWKHV,ZRUNHGLQWKHOHJHQGDU\&KROHUD5HVHDUFK /DERUDWRU\LQ%DQJODGHVKLQWKHVDQGWDXJKWZDWHUHQJLQHHULQJDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1RUWK &DUROLQD IRU ¿YH \HDUV LQ WKH V , ZRUNHG LQ WKH ³LGHDV GHSDUWPHQWV´RIWKH:RUOG%DQNIRURIWKHODVW\HDUVDQG,DPQRZRQWKH faculty of Harvard University. On the practical side of the fence, I worked for WKH 'HSDUWPHQW RI :DWHU $IIDLUV LQ 6RXWK $IULFD LQ WKH ODWH V OLYHG LQ D YLOODJHLQ%DQJODGHVKLQWKHVDQGZRUNHGWREXLOG³1HZ0DQ´LQ$IULFD ZLWK 6DPRUD 0DFKHO LQ 0R]DPELTXH LQ WKH ODWH V )RU WKH :RUOG %DQN , ZRUNHG LQ RSHUDWLRQDO MREV LQ %UD]LO LQ WKH ODWH V ZDV WKH %DQN¶V VHQLRU ZDWHUDGYLVRUIRU6RXWK$VLDLQ'HOKLIRUWKUHH\HDUVDQGWKHQWKHFRXQWU\GLUHFWRUIRU%UD]LO±WKHELJJHVWKDUGORDQERUURZHUIURPWKH%DQN±IRUWKHODVWWKUHH years. 0\YLHZVKDYHGHYHORSHGIURPWKLVSHUVRQDOZDONWKURXJKOLIH$QGVLQFHWKH deepest of the convictions stem from particular experiences, it is worth explainLQJ KRZ WKH LQWHJUDWHG YLHZ ZKLFK LV WKH SXUSRVH RI WKLV FKDSWHU E\ D EULHI description of what I took away from some of these submersions. As an engineering student at The University of Cape Town in the 1960s , ZDV D VWXGHQW RI 3URIHVVRU *HUULW 0DUDLV¶ LQ WKH &LYLO (QJLQHHULQJ 'HSDUWPHQW RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &DSH 7RZQ LQ WKH V *HUULW KDG ZRUNHG LQ Zambia and had seen the dramatic degradation of water bodies around the burJHRQLQJ FLWLHV RI WKH &RSSHUEHOW +H UHFRJQL]HG WKDW WKHUH ZDV D VHHPLQJO\ LUUHFRQFLODEOH FRQÀLFW 7KH FLWLHV RI =DPELD ZHUH JURZLQJ UDSLGO\ DQG WKH people drawn to work there wanted to have water in their houses, and clean sanitation facilities. However, the conventional solutions that had emerged hand in hand with growing incomes in the rich world were prohibitively expensive for these people. Gerrit recognized that the Zambians had resources of solar energy and temperature which the tropics did not, so he started a VHDUFK IRU VROXWLRQV LQ ZKLFK ZLWK DFNQRZOHGJHPHQWV WR
Water science and policy in a changing world QRQH RWKHU WKDQ *HUULW 0DUDLV ZKR KDG GHVLJQHG WKH VWDELOL]DWLRQ SRQGV IRU WKHQHZFDSLWDORI%UD]LO Moral of the Story: Implementable innovations come from thinkers who immerse themselves in practical realities. Working as a water engineer in the South African Ministry of Water in the late 1960s 6RXWK $IULFD KDV D SHFXOLDU EXW QRW XQXVXDO K\GURORJLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF JHRJUDSK\ 0RVW RI WKH UDLQ IDOOV RQ D QDUURZ EHOW RQ WKH HDVW FRDVW ZKHUHDV WKH economic heartland is in the rain shadow, at relatively high altitudes and far IURPZKHUHWKHUDLQIDOOV7KLVPHDQWVHYHUDOWKLQJV)LUVWWKHUHZDVQRTXHVWLRQ about “whether” but only “how” water should be moved from where it was DEXQGDQWDQGOLWWOHQHHGHGWRZKHUHLWZDVVFDUFHDQGYDOXDEOHLQVHYHQRI6RXWK $IULFD¶VQLQHSURYLQFHVPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWRIZDWHULVIURPLQWHUEDVLQWUDQVIHUV 6HFRQGZDWHULQ6RXWK$IULFDFRXOGQRWEHFRQFHLYHGH[FHSWLQWKHFRQWH[W of the economy/energy/water nexus. This meant a lot of innovation – early work of mine included work on pumped-storage schemes. Third, in all countries, the way in which water was managed depended heavily on the sector that drove GHYHORSPHQW,QWKHFDVHRI6RXWK$IULFDWKLVZDVWKHPLQLQJLQGXVWU\DQGWKXV SULPDU\LQVWLWXWLRQVZHUHVKDUSSHQFLOHGDQG¿QDQFLDOO\DVWXWH7KH5DQG:DWHU %RDUGIRUH[DPSOHUDLVHGPRQH\RQLQWHUQDWLRQDOFDSLWDOPDUNHWVLQWKHV DQGZDVDOZD\V¿QDQFLDOO\LQGHSHQGHQWDQGVXVWDLQDEOH Moral of the Story: In developing countries, the primary “water issue” is how water can support economic development. Harvard University in the 1970s, the Harvard Water Program and South Asia $W +DUYDUG , OHDUQHG WZR JUHDW OHVVRQV /HVVRQ RQH IURP WKH +DUYDUG :DWHU 3URJUDP ZDV RQ ZKDW PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ ZRUN UHTXLUHV RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV , learned that the great challenge in water management was to simultaneously OHDUQRQHGLPHQVLRQZHOOLQP\FDVHHQJLQHHULQJ EXWDOVRWRXQGHUVWDQGWKDW deeper understanding could only come with the integration of different disciSOLQHV0RUHSURIRXQGO\,OHDUQHGWKDWWKHSURFHVVRIXQGHUVWDQGLQJRWKHUGLVFLSOLQHV ZDV DQ HQRUPRXV LQWHOOHFWXDO HIIRUW ZKLFK UHTXLUHG VXEPHUVLRQ LQ WKH ZRUOGYLHZDQGWHFKQLTXHVRIWKHRWKHUGLVFLSOLQH7ZRH[DPSOHVIURPWZRRI WKH JLDQWV RI WKH +:3 LOOXVWUDWH WKLV SRLQW +DUROG 7KRPDV ZKR GHVFULEHG himself as a “sanitary engineer,” published a landmark paper on the setting of environmental standards in the American Quarterly Journal of Economics 7KRPDV %RE'RUIPDQDJUHDWPLFURHFRQRPLVWFDPHWRDVHPLQDURQH day delighted to be able to tell the engineers that he had discovered an algorithm for sizing reservoirs. The engineers politely watched his hour-long exposition

J. Briscoe DQGWKHQEXUVWLQWRDSSODXVHWHOOLQJKLPKHKDGUHGLVFRYHUHGWKH0DVV'LDJUDP The main point is that the applause was not ironic – there was deep respect for an economist who had so immersed himself in the engineers’ problem and world YLHZ WKDW KH KDG UHGLVFRYHUHG WKH ZKHHO $V P\ FROOHDJXH /LQFROQ &KHQ RQFH commented, “The only multidisciplinary research that works is when one researcher has all the disciplines.” A more accurate version might be that all the researchers must have gone through an apprenticeship in the other disciplines – there is no short cut. The second lesson from Harvard came from engagement in the challenges of ZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWLQWKH,QGLDQVXEFRQWLQHQW7KHHQJDJHPHQWVWDUWHGLQ ZKHQ3UHVLGHQW$\XE.KDQZDVWRYLVLW3UHVLGHQW.HQQHG\³:KDWFDQ,GRIRU \RX"´DVNHG.HQQHG\³3DNLVWDQLVGHSHQGHQWRQRQHULYHUWKH,QGXV:HKDYH the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system, and the natural resource base is being destroyed by the related threats of waterlogging and salinity,” replied $\XE .KDQ ³1R SUREOHP´ VDLG .HQQHG\ ³, DP VXUH WKRVH FOHYHU SHRSOH DW +DUYDUG FDQ ¿[ LW , ZLOO DVN 5RJHU 5HYHOOH D UHQRZQHG VFLHQWLVW DQG VFLHQFH advisor to the Department of the Interior to work with them and solve it.” And so started a remarkable journey that resulted in a deep partnership between a group of remarkable Pakistani water engineers and the engineers/economists/ LQVWLWXWLRQDOLVWVRIWKH+DUYDUG:DWHU3URJUDP0LFKHO There were several lessons that contributed to forming my world view. )LUVWWKDWWKHLQWXLWLYHVROXWLRQWR³OLQHWKHOHDN\FDQDOVZKLFKDUHFDXVLQJWKH water table to rise” turned out to be the opposite of the actual solution to “increase, rather than decrease, circulation of the groundwater, by letting the canals leak, but by supplementing this with massive investment in tubewells, ZKLFKZRXOGOHDFKWKHVDOWVORZHUWKHZDWHUWDEOHDQGSURYLGHDKLJKTXDOLW\ LUULJDWLRQ VXSSO\ IRU WKH IDUPHUV´ 6HFRQG WKDW WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO SUREOHP ZDWHUORJJLQJDQGVDOLQLW\ FRXOGQRWEHGHOLQNHGIURPWKHHFRQRPLFSUREOHP which was increasing productivity of irrigated agriculture. Third, that this UHTXLUHG GHHS LPPHUVLRQ RI WKH +DUYDUG WHDP LQ WKH ¿HOG QRW OHDVW WKURXJK intensive partnerships with the world-class Pakistani irrigation engineers. )RXUWK DQG ¿QDOO\ WKLV UHPDUNDEOH WHDP JRW D ELJ SLHFH RI WKH SX]]OH ± QRW coincidentally the institutional piece – wrong. They conceived the solution to be the installation of batteries of large-scale public tubewells. They did not see the massive implications of a technological/economic change, which was the emergence of affordable submersible tubewells powered by small diesel and HOHFWULFPRWRUV1RWRQO\GLGWKHVHGRWKHHVVHQWLDOUHVRXUFHFRQVHUYLQJMRERI OHDFKLQJVDOWVDQGORZHULQJWKHZDWHUWDEOH EXWWKH\SURYLGHGDQ³H[LW´RSWLRQ LQ WKH ODQJXDJH RI +LUVFKPDQ IURP WKH W\UDQQ\ RI SXEOLFRSHUDWHG ORZTXDOLW\LUULJDWLRQVHUYLFHV Moral of the Story: Water involves many disciplines – those who engage in effective multidisciplinary work have to learn the essence of the “other” disciplines.

Water science and policy in a changing world )RUW\ \HDUV ODWHU WKH GHQRXHPHQW LV UHPDUNDEOH $Q LQWUDFWDEOH HQYLURQmental problem was, to a considerable degree, contained. Agricultural producWLRQERRPHG$QGRK\HVWKHVHFUHWZDVWKHSXPSVHWVSXUFKDVHGDQG LQVWDOOHGE\3DNLVWDQLIDUPHUV7KH¿QDOOHVVRQLVWKDWZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWLVD dialectic process – there is no such thing as “a permanent solution.” There is just the hope that lower-level problems can be set aside so that attention can EH JLYHQ WR RWKHU HTXDOO\ IRUPLGDEOH EXW KLJKHUOHYHO SUREOHPV FDQ EH WKH focus of attention. In the case of Pakistan, as documented in a book written ZLWK3DNLVWDQLFROOHDJXHV%ULVFRHDQG4DPDU WKLVLQFOXGHVGHDOLQJZLWK WKHSUREOHPVRIIDOOLQJZDWHUWDEOHVRIHQGHPLFFRQÀLFWVDULVLQJIURPSRRUO\ VSHFL¿HG SURSHUW\ ULJKWV KDSSLO\ QRZ EHLQJ DGGUHVVHG ZLWK FRQVLGHUDEOH LQLWLDO VXFFHVV LQ :RUOG %DQN¿QDQFHG SURMHFWV LQ WKH 3XQMDE DQG RI WKH H[LVWHQWLDO WKUHDW WR 3DNLVWDQ RI WKH PHOWLQJ RI WKH JODFLHUV LQ WKH :HVWHUQ Himalayas. Moral of the Story: Technological innovations that go to scale can have huge impacts. Moral of the Story: Water reform is a dialectic process – solving one problem brings other, higher-level problems to the surface. Moral of the Story: Seemingly intractable problems can sometimes be solved. Moral of the Story: ,QVWLWXWLRQDO FKDOOHQJHV DUH RIWHQ WKH PRVW GLI¿FXOW WR model and solve. Living and doing research in a village in Bangladesh in the 1970s , VSHQW WZR \HDUV LQ %DQJODGHVK DW WKH &KROHUD 5HVHDUFK /DERUDWRU\ VWXG\LQJ water, energy, and health and their interactions, and living on an island in the 0HJKQD 5LYHU ZKHUH OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ ZDV DQG WKHUH ZDV QR HOHFWULFLW\ , OHDUQHGPDQ\PDQ\WKLQJV%ULVFRH 2QHZDVWKDWORFDOSHRSOHRIWHQVDZWKLQJVTXLWHGLIIHUHQWO\IURPWKHGRQRUV ZKRGHFLGHG³ZKDWZLOOEHJRRGIRU\RX´)RUH[DPSOHWKHJOREDOFRPPXQLW\ noting that diarrheal diseases were a major cause of death, had donated vast numbers of handpumps. It was obvious that with a free, easily accessible handpump and a dab of education, villagers would abandon their polluted surface ZDWHUVRXUFHVXVHWKHKDQGSXPSVDQGOLYHKDSSLO\HYHUDIWHU7KH¿UVWVKRFN± UHDOLW\DJDLQ±ZDVRQP\¿UVWPRUQLQJLQWKHYLOODJHZKHQ,¿OOHGP\EXFNHW at the handpump and used the water for bathing. This provoked incredulous JXIIDZVIURPWKHODUJH JDOOHU\±KRZFRXOGDIRUHLJQHUEHVRVWXSLGWRJRWR DOOWKDWWURXEOHZKHQWKHUHZDVÀRZLQJZDWHUQHDUE\"$QGKRZFRXOGKHWKLQN that water could be used for cooking when the iron in the water would turn the rice black?

J. Briscoe Moral of the Story: If you haven’t walked a mile in someone else’s shoes, be modest about the wisdom of prescribing the choices he should make. A second lesson related to the great development project planned for the LVODQG±DPLOHHPEDQNPHQWWKDWZRXOGNHHSWKHÀRRGZDWHUVRXWDQGHQDEOH the farmers to grow three crops of high-yielding rice rather than one crop of the WUDGLWLRQDOYDULHW\,UHUHDG(QJHOVWRXQGHUVWDQGEHWWHUWKHWUDQVLWLRQXQIROGLQJ before my eyes, from a feudal to capitalist society. I also read a lot of more conWHPSRUDU\ SVHXGR0DU[LVW OLWHUDWXUH DQG PDGH FRQ¿GHQW SURQRXQFHPHQWV RQ ZKDWWKHHPEDQNPHQWZRXOGPHDQIRUWKHVRFLHW\%ULVFRH 2QHRI WKHWDPHUTXRWHVLV WKLVZLOOPHDQ JUHDWHUZHDOWKIRUVRPHDQGPRUHDFXWHSRYHUW\IRUPRVW the number of landless people will grow as landholdings become more concentrated, the real wages of agricultural laborers will fall, many of the landless will be driven out of the village because they no longer serve any useful purpose for those who control the resources. And with that, I packed my bags and headed off to the newly independent 3HRSOHV¶ 5HSXEOLF RI 0R]DPELTXH WR KHOS ³FUHDWH QHZ VRFLDOLVW PDQ´ QR ZRPDQWKHQ LQ$IULFD %XWWKHUHLVDSRVWVFULSW,ZHQWEDFNWR³P\´YLOODJH\HDUVODWHU%HIRUH going, I had watched a doomsday video on the project produced by a prominent NGO, describing an environmental wasteland inhabited by desperate people. I also learned that there had been a host of problems with the embankment – corUXSWLRQUHVHWWOHPHQWDQGWKHFROODSVHRISDUWRIWKHHPEDQNPHQWZKHQWKH¿UVW ÀRRGDUULYHG$KVRP\SUHGLFWLRQVZHUHULJKW$QGZKDWGLG,¿QG"7KDWOLIH ZDV LQGHHG VWLOO KDUVK DQG WKDW WKHUH ZDV VWLOO QR HOHFWULFLW\ RQ WKH LVODQG %XW that people were dramatically better off – life expectancy for women had LQFUHDVHGIURPWR\HDUVDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLYLW\KDGGRXEOHGWKHUHZDVD KLJK GHPDQG IRU ODERU ZDJH UDWHV KDG LQFUHDVHG DQG WKHUH ZHUH ÀRXULVKLQJ PDUNHWVZKHUHQRQHKDGH[LVWHGEHIRUH:KLOHWKH:RUOG%DQNDQGRWKHUGRQRUV focused on the virtues of microcredit and health and social services, for the vilODJHUVWKHUHZDVQRTXHVWLRQDERXWWKHGULYHURIFKDQJH³,W¶VWKHHPEDQNPHQW DQGURDGVDQGEULGJHV VWXSLG´WKH\WROGDQGLPSOLHG%ULVFRH Moral of the Story: Water infrastructure – even imperfect infrastructure – remains, fashions notwithstanding, fundamental to basic economic development and well-being. Working as a water engineer in Mozambique in the late 1970s and early 1980s &RORQLDOLVPZDVVHOGRPDQHIIHFWLYHEXLOGHURIORFDOKXPDQUHVRXUFHV%XWWKH 3RUWXJXHVHYHUVLRQZDVXQXVXDOO\SHUYHUVHOHDYLQJ0R]DPELTXHZLWKQRPRUH

Water science and policy in a changing world than a handful of water professionals – either engineers or even mid-level WHFKQLFLDQV )RU WKRVH ZKR FRPSRVHG WKH ¿UVW JHQHUDWLRQ RI 0R]DPELFDQ FLYLO servants, this meant that we were simultaneously national planners and plumbers. ,W DOVR PHDQW WKDW ZH OHDUQHG D ORW DERXW SULRULWL]LQJ DQG VHTXHQFLQJ 7ZR VLWXDWLRQVLOOXVWUDWHWKHGXUDEOHOHVVRQV,OHDUQHGLQ0R]DPELTXH ,QWKH¿UVWFDVHWKHFHQWUDODFWRUZDVD%ULWLVKHQJLQHHUZKRKDGSUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ WKH JHQHUDO PDQDJHU RI WKH SULYDWH EHIRUH 7KDWFKHU &DPEULGJH :DWHU &RPSDQ\ +H ZDV SODFHG LQ WKH RQH DQG RQO\ ZDWHU HTXLSPHQW FRPSDQ\ OLNH HYHU\RWKHUHQWHUSULVHDWWKDWWLPHVWDWHRZQHG :LWKLQDPRQWKKHKDGDJRRG GLDJQRVLV DQG D SODQ IRU LPSURYLQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH HQWHUSULVH :H EURXJKW WKLV WR RXU YHU\ DVWXWH QDWLRQDO GLUHFWRU +H UHYLHZHG LW DQG DJUHHG ZLWK LW DQG WKHQ VDLG WR WKH %ULWLVK FROOHDJXH ³:KLOH \RX NQRZ WKLV LV ZKDW needs to be done, and I know it too, if we act before the management and staff of WKHHQWHUSULVHXQGHUVWDQGWKHQHHGLWZLOOKDYHQRODVWLQJLPSDFW6R\RXUWDVN IRU WKH WZR \HDUV \RX ZLOO EH ZLWK XV >HDUQLQJ D \HDU@ ZLOO EH WR KHOS people come to the conclusion that change is necessary. I doubt [and he was ULJKW@WKDWWKLVZLOOWDNHOHVVWKDQWZR\HDUV´ Moral of the Story: There are rhythms to the development process that require a rigorous and often frustrating prioritizing and sequencing of interventions. The second case was a more personal one. The governor of the Province of Inhambane was determined to improve the services provided to the dispersed SRRUOLYLQJLQWKHLQWHULRURIKLVÀDWDULGSURYLQFHDQGNQHZWKDWSHRSOHKDGWR EHFRQFHQWUDWHGLQVHWWOHPHQWVLIWKDWZHUHWRKDSSHQ6R,DQGD'XWFKK\GURJHologist, were dispatched to the province, and were instructed by the governor to tell him where water was available. Another of the legacies of Portuguese colonialism was that there were no hydrogeological maps of the interior of the provLQFH:HVHWRIIWRWKHLQWHULRUQRWNQRZLQJTXLWHZKDWWRGRRUKRZWRGRLWVR ZH DVNHG ZKDW ZH NQHZ KRZ WR DVN 7KH ¿UVW GLVWULFW DGPLQLVWUDWRU ZH PHW answered, “No, we have no records or maps – our old people are our maps, you ZLOOKDYHWROHDUQWRUHDGWKHP´:HGLVFRYHUHGWKHUHZDVNQRZOHGJHRIHYHU\ ERUHKROHWKDWKDGEHHQVXQNRIZKLFKRQHV\LHOGHGZKDWTXDQWLW\DQGTXDOLW\RI ZDWHUDQGRIWKHGHSWKRIWKHZDWHUWDEOH6RZHEHFDPHDQWKURSRORJLFDOK\GURJHRORJLVWVDQGZHUHDEOHWRSDWFKWRJHWKHUDJRRGHQRXJKSLFWXUH%XWZKDWDOVR soon became obvious was that the associated issues of land capability and polLWLFVQRWZDWHUZHUHPRUHIXQGDPHQWDOSUREOHPV/DQGFDSDELOLW\EHFDXVHWKHUH ZHUHRQO\IHZSODFHVLQWKHSURYLQFHLQZKLFKODQGTXDOLW\ZDVVXFKWKDWFRQcentrated rural populations could survive. And politics, because the proposed “resettlement” would separate people from a harsh but known reality in which their trees were among their major assets, for the uncertain promise of a better life separated from the little that they could call their own. After a month in the LQWHULRU ZH VWXPEOHG EDFN LQWR WKH SURYLQFLDO FDSLWDO ³6R VKRZ PH WKH PDSV ZKLFKWHOOZKHUHZHKDYHZDWHU´LQVWUXFWHGWKHJRYHUQRU³:HFDQGRWKDWEXW

J. Briscoe that is not the main problem – you have to do the land and water planning together,” we replied. In response to the glazed look on the governor’s face, I then expanded, “If you don’t do that, then people will become worse off, and \RX ZLOO IDFH D SROLWLFDO SUREOHP´ +H UHSOLHG ³XQVDLG ± ZKLWH \RXQJ LGHDOLVW@ DUH FRPLQJ WR WHOO PH ZKR KDYH EHHQ LQ WKH DUPHG VWUXJJOH ZLWK WKH SHRSOHIRU\HDUVDERXWSROLWLFV"/HDYH\RXUZDWHUPDSDQGJHWRXWRIKHUH´ %XWDVWKH&KULVWLDQ%URWKHUVXVHGWRWHOOXVLQKLJKVFKRROWKH/RUGZRUNV in mysterious ways. And so a month later when the pumps providing water to Inhambane city broke and the city was without water, yours truly was disSDWFKHGWR¿[WKHSXPSV3XPSVUHSDLUHGWKHFLW\KDGZDWHUDJDLQDIWHUDOPRVW DZHHNZLWKQDU\DGURS%HIRUH,FRXOGJHWRXWRIWRZQ,ZDVVXPPRQVHGE\ WKHJRYHUQRUWRVD\WKDQN\RX³$KLWLV\RX´KHVDLG³,GLGQRWUHDOL]HWKDW you were a practical man. . . . Now let’s discuss, again, the business of land and water and politics so that I understand it better.” I had learned my lesson and left out the clarion call for modern planning, and dealt just with details. The governor got it, soon and completely. And this led to a revolution in territorial planning in the interior of the state, with water and land being considered in an integrated way, and people’s economic assets being taken explicitly into account. Moral of the Story: Development is a “show-me” business. Solving immediate problems gives credibility in addressing longer-term and more abstract challenges. %XW GHYHORSPHQW LV QRW D JDPH IRU WKH LPSDWLHQW -XVW DV ZH ZHUH JHWWLQJ VWDUWHG WKH 5KRGHVLDQEDFNHG 5HQDPR LQVXUJHQF\ VWDUWHG LQ WKH SURYLQFH DQG 0R]DPELTXH ZHQW LQWR WKH DE\VV RI D EUXWDO FLYLO ZDU
Water science and policy in a changing world education services, but were silent on jobs, energy, transport, and agriculture. The message was taken up by the most unlikely of disciples, countries whose experience completely contradicted the path that they were now foisting on RWKHUV³0DGDPHPLQLVWHU±\RXUFRXQWU\>1RUZD\RUPDQ\RWKHUV@EXLOW\RXU HFRQRP\RQFKHDSDQGFOHDQK\GURSRZHUDQG\RXQRZXVHSHUFHQWRI\RXU K\GURSRWHQWLDO+RZFDQ\RXSRVVLEO\WHOO(WKLRSLD±ZKLFKXVHVSHUFHQWRILWV hydro potential, that they cannot build dams?” At the height of this fad, the GH¿QLQJ¿UVWDFWRIDQHZSUHVLGHQWRIWKH:RUOG%DQNZDVWRZLWKGUDZ%DQN support for the medium-sized run-of-the-river Arun hydropower project in 1HSDO7KH¿JOHDIZDV³WKHSURMHFWZDVWRRELJIRUWKHHFRQRP\RI1HSDO´EXW HYHU\RQH NQHZ WKDW 1HSDO ZDV EHLQJ VDFUL¿FHG WR DSSHDVH WKH UDPSDQW 1*2V DQGWKHULFKFRXQWULHVRQWKH%RDUGRIWKH%DQNZKRKDGVLPLODUYLHZV7KHUH ZDV QRDFNQRZOHGJHPHQWWKDW 1HSDO¶V JUHDW RQO\" UHVRXUFH LV JUDYLW\ZDWHU WKDWLWKDGGHYHORSHGMXVWSHUFHQWRILWVK\GURSRZHUSRWHQWLDODQGWKDWQHLJKERULQJ%KXWDQRQHWHQWKRIWKHVL]HRI1HSDOKDGEXLOWWHQWLPHVDVPXFKK\GURSRZHUDQGXVHGWRGHYHORSLWVPXFKDGPLUHGVRFLHW\ZKLFKPHDVXUHVQRW*'3 EXW*URVV'RPHVWLF+DSSLQHVV %XWLWZDVQRWHGORFDOO\DQGDURXQGWKHZRUOG WKDWZKLOH1HSDOUHOLHGRQLQWHUQDWLRQDOGRQRUVDQGWKHLU¿FNOHIDGV%KXWDQKDG TXLHWO\ JRQH DERXW LWV EXVLQHVV ZLWK ¿QDQFLQJ DQG WHFKQRORJ\ IURP ,QGLD )RU sure, getting only second-best deals from its dominant neighbor, but understanding that second best was a lot better than the nothing that Nepal got from its EHQH¿FHQWGRQRUV Nepal was not an isolated case. The president of Uganda railed against the ZDYHULQJ RI WKH :RUOG %DQN DQG WKH GHFDGHV WDNHQ EHIRUH WKH %XMDJDOL 'DP vital for a power-desperate Uganda, could be sanctioned. The Nam Theun II 'DPLQ/DRVVXIIHUHGVLPLODULQWHUPLQDEOHSURFHVVHV±OD\HUXSRQOD\HURILQWHUQDWLRQDODGYLVRU\FRPPLWWHHV7KH(FRQRPLVWLQWHUYLHZHGDUHVHWWOHHWREHZKR described how his life had been suspended for years, and how he had been interYLHZHGE\QROHVVWKDQGLIIHUHQWUHVHWWOHPHQWH[SHUWV The process whereby some rudimentary common sense was eventually – DOEHLWEHODWHGO\DQGRQO\SDUWLDOO\±EURXJKWLQWRWKHKDOOVRI:DVKLQJWRQSRZHU KDVEHHQGHVFULEHGLQGHWDLOLQWKHDXWKRULWDWLYHERRNRQWKH:RUOG%DQNGXULQJ WKH :ROIHQVRKQ HUD 0DOODE\ 7KH FHQWUDO SROLWLFDO UHDOLW\ ZDV WKDW WKH PLGGOHLQFRPH FRXQWULHV 0,&V WKH FRXQWULHV WKDW ZHUH GHYHORSPHQW VXFFHVVHV ³FRXQWULHV ZLWK FKRLFHV´ ± LQFOXGLQJ &KLQD ,QGLD DQG %UD]LO ± VDLG “enough is enough.” They greeted with great skepticism proposals for “new development paradigms,” which recommended paths that had never been traveled by any currently developed countries and was not being followed by any of the large, rapidly growing countries. They also noted the faddish nature of development solutions devised by those who did not have to live with the FRQVHTXHQFHV$VH[HPSOL¿HGE\WKH0LOOHQQLXP'HYHORSPHQW*RDOV0'*V in recent decades developed countries have ignored the basics of infrastructure for energy, transport, and water, of agriculture. In exasperated reaction the 0,&V LQVLVWHG WKDW WKH ³GHIDXOW´ PXVW EH WKH SDWK ZHOO WUDYHOHG DQG WKDW WKH burden of proof for development approaches that had never been followed

J. Briscoe EHIRUH ZDV PXFK KLJKHU $W WKH :RUOG %DQN WKLV PHDQW WKDW WKH 0,&V XVHG WKHLU JURZLQJ YRLFH WR HQVXUH WKDW WKH %DQN UHFRJQL]HG WKDW LQIUDVWUXFWXUH –including water infrastructure – was a pre-condition for economic developPHQW DQG WKDW WKH %DQN VKRXOG UHHQJDJH ZLWK LQIUDVWUXFWXUH OHQGLQJ LQ ³WKH countries which have no choices.” Moral of the Story: Developing countries insist that the “default” development path must be the path well traveled, and that the burden of proof for development approaches that had never been followed before should be very high. ,QWKHLQWHULPVRPHSURJUHVVKDVEHHQPDGH6ORZDVWKH\ZHUHLQFRPLQJ WKH 8JDQGD DQG /DRV K\GURSRZHU SURMHFWV ZHUH ¿QDOO\ DSSURYHG $QG WKHUH KDYH EHHQ ODUJH LQFUHDVHV LQ :RUOG %DQN OHQGLQJ IRU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG RWKHU GHYHORSPHQWDJHQFLHVIROORZLQJWKLVOHDG%XWLQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDQJHQHYHUFRPHV HDVLO\RUTXLFNO\7KHUHZHUHVWLOOFDOOVIRUHYHUPRUHULJRURXV³VWDQGDUGV´7KH ³JXLGHOLQHV´RIWKH:RUOG&RPPLVVLRQRQ'DPV:&' IRUH[DPSOHDUH a set of standards that had never been nor ever would be followed in rich countries and that would make investments in major water projects impossible. The IDFW WKDW WKH :&' VWDQGDUGV ZHUH QRW DGRSWHG E\ D VLQJOH FRXQWU\ DQG ZHUH UHMHFWHG E\ WKH 0,&V GLG QRW PHDQ WKDW 1*2V ³ZLWK QR RII VZLWFK´ VWRSSHG SXVKLQJWKHPRQWKH:RUOG%DQNDQGRWKHUGHYHORSPHQWDJHQFLHV:KLOHIXUWKHU descent into impracticability was resisted, the panoply of restrictive regulations DFFXPXODWHG RYHU GHFDGHV LQ WKH :RUOG %DQN UHPDLQHG LQ SODFH DQG LPSRVHG HQRUPRXV WUDQVDFWLRQV FRVWV :KROH SDUWV RI WKH %DQN EXUHDXFUDF\ H[LVWHG WR manage these transactions costs and many senior staff had risen in part because of their ability to steer away from “reputational risks.” The underlying economics and politics of development was changing dramatically and rapidly, ZKLOH WKH JOREDO LQVWLWXWLRQDO VWUXFWXUH HUHFWHG \HDUV EHIRUH FKDQJHG DW D glacial pace. :KLOH WKHVH ³LQVLGH WKH %HOWZD\´ GUDPDV JURXQG RQ WKHUH ZDV D GUDPDWLF FKDQJH LQ WKH H[WHUQDO ZRUOG 7KUHH LOOXVWUDWLRQV 1XPEHU 2QH ± &KLQD UDSLGO\ EHFDPH D PXFK ELJJHU GRQRU LQ $IULFD WKDQ WKH :RUOG %DQN :KLOH WKH :RUOG %DQN ZRXOG GLWKHU IRU GHFDGHV EHIRUH LQYHVWLQJ LQ FULWLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH WKH &KLQHVH ZRXOG GHFLGH DQG LPSOHPHQW LQ D IUDFWLRQ RI WKDW WLPH)RU DQ $IULFDQ desperately starved of infrastructure, the arrival of alternatives was enormously ZHOFRPH 1XPEHU 7ZR ± LQ ,QGLD DQQRXQFHG WKDW LQ WKH IXWXUH LW ZRXOG DFFHSW RI¿FLDO IRUHLJQ DVVLVWDQFH IURP RQO\ ¿YH FRXQWULHV )RU WRR PDQ\ RWKHU donors, the government spokesman declared, “The ratio of sanctimoniousness to GROODUV KDV UHDFKHG XQUHDVRQDEOH SURSRUWLRQV´ 1XPEHU 7KUHH ± %UD]LO ZKLFK KDGVSHQWGHFDGHVWHHWHULQJDWWKHHGJHRIHQGHPLFGHEWFULVHVVXGGHQO\KDG ELOOLRQLQUHVHUYHV³7KH:RUOG%DQNFDQLQYHVWRQO\ELOOLRQD\HDULQ%UD]LO"´ DQ LQFUHGXORXV 3UHVLGHQW /XOD FRPPHQWHG WR WKH SUHVLGHQW RI WKH :RUOG %DQN ³ZKHQ RXU RZQ 1DWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW %DQN VSHQGV ELOOLRQ D \HDU´ ,Q D ZRUGWKH0,&VZHUHÀXVKZLWKFDVKDQGFRQ¿GHQFH7KH\ZHUHZLOOLQJWRVSHQG

Water science and policy in a changing world WKHFDVKIRUWKHLURZQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGRWKHU QHHGV$QGWKH\VWHSSHGDJJUHVVLYHO\RQWRWKHZRUOGVWDJHWRGHFODUHDGHIDFWRHQGRIWKHHUDLQZKLFKWKH2(&' FRXQWULHVGH¿QHGWKHWHUPVXQGHUZKLFKGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVZRXOGGHYHORS These years in Delhi implementing the new Bank Water Strategy in South Asia $IWHU WKLV LPPHUVLRQ LQ WKH RIWHQ $OLFHLQ:RQGHUODQGOLNH SROLWLFV RI JOREDO GHYHORSPHQW,FKRVHWRJRWRWKH¿HOGWRKHOSLPSOHPHQWWKH%DQN¶VQHZ³EDFN WRWKHIXWXUH´ :DWHU 6WUDWHJ\ RI ,QGLD ZDV ¿QDOO\ FRQ¿QLQJ ³WKH +LQGX rate of growth” to the history books. And it was abundantly clear that the country needed to revitalize and modernize massive parts of the long-dormant economy. :DWHU ZDV DW WKH KHDUW RI PDQ\ RI WKHVH FKDOOHQJHV ± EHFDXVH RI WKH QHHG IRU cheap, clean power, and because the Himalayas offered enormous potential for ORZFRVWK\GURSRZHUEHFDXVHDJULFXOWXUHKDGEHHQQHJOHFWHGDQGEHFDXVHLUULgation had not modernized but become anarchic and unsustainable. The rambunctious and important Indian civil society suggested that the people RI ,QGLD GLG QRW ZDQW PRUH PDMRU LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IRU K\GUR DQG LUULJDWLRQ 'HHSHU DQDO\VLV VKRZHG D TXLWH GLIIHUHQW UHDOLW\ $ 6XVVH[ 8QLYHUVLW\ ERRN &KDSPDQ et al. GLVVHFWLQJ SUHVV WUHDWPHQW RI WKH HPEOHPDWLF 1DUPDGD 5LYHUEDWWOHVZKLFKKDGSOD\HGVXFKDODUJHUROHLQGH¿QLQJWKHQHZLGHRORJ\RI GHYHORSPHQWLQWKHJOREDOGHYHORSPHQWFRPPXQLW\LQFOXGLQJWKH:RUOG%DQN VKRZHGWKDWWKH(QJOLVKODQJXDJHSUHVVZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUSHUFHQWRIUHDGHUVKLS FRYHUDJHJHQHUDOO\DOOLHGZLWKWKH³DQWLGHYHORSPHQW´YLHZZKHUHDVWKH YHUQDFXODUSUHVVZKLFKDFFRXQWVIRUSHUFHQWRIUHDGHUVKLS ZDVFRQVLVWHQWO\ heavily in favor of the Narmada project and generally gave high priority to GHYHORSPHQW :KLOH ³1DUPDGD´ ZDV D EDG ZRUG RXWVLGH RI ,QGLD VWDWH DQG QDWLRQDOSROLWLFLDQVÀRFNHGWRWKH6DUGDU6DURYDU'DPVLWHWREHSKRWRJUDSKHG DQGWKHIHZDQWL1DUPDGDSROLWLFLDQVZKRUDQIRURI¿FHJHQHUDOO\GLGQRWJHWWKH SHUFHQWRIWKHYRWHQHFHVVDU\WRUHWDLQWKHLUGHSRVLWV During my three years in Delhi, I worked with teams of local experts in drawing together assessments of the water challenges facing India and Pakistan %ULVFRHDQG0DOLN%ULVFRHDQG4DPDU 7KHVHUHSRUWVZHUHPRWLYDWHG DV QDWLRQDOOHYHO UHÀHFWLRQV RI WKH FKDQJHG WHUPV RI HQJDJHPHQW E\ WKH :RUOG %DQN 7KH\ SRVLWLRQHG WKH :RUOG %DQN DV D IXOOVHUYLFH ¿QDQFLDO DQG knowledge partner, willing to engage in an integrated fashion with the “hard” and “soft” challenges of water development in the subcontinent. The main messages of India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future were:

,QGLDQHHGVWREXLOGDORWRIZDWHULQIUDVWUXFWXUHRIDOOVFDOHV ,QGLDQHHGVDPDVVLYHPRGHUQL]DWLRQRIWKHVWDWHLQVWLWXWLRQVUHVSRQVLEOHIRU WKHSURYLVLRQDQGPDQDJHPHQWRIZDWHUUHVRXUFHVDQGZDWHUVHUYLFHVZLWK one of the Indian contributors coining the memorable phrase that India folORZHGD%XLOG±1HJOHFW±5HEXLOGPRGHO

J. Briscoe

WKDWFODUL¿FDWLRQRIZDWHUHQWLWOHPHQWVKDGVHUYHG,QGLDYHU\ZHOOvis-à-vis 3DNLVWDQLQWKH,QGXV:DWHU7UHDW\EXWWKDWODFNRI³GULOOGRZQ´RQZDWHU ULJKWVJDYHULVHWRZKDWWKH¿QDQFHPLQLVWHUGHVFULEHGDVD³JURZLQJVHWRI OLWWOHFLYLOZDUV´RYHUZDWHU WKDWWKH³VROXWLRQ´IRXQGWRLQDGHTXDWHIRUPDOVHUYLFHVZDVDQDQDUFKLFUXVK to unregulated groundwater, which was being mined unsustainably in almost all of the most important economic areas of the country and which posed a fundamental threat to people and the economy. Unsustainable groundwater RYHUGUDIWVSURYLGHGSHUFHQWRI,QGLD¶VIRRGVXSSO\DQG WKDW ,QGLD QHHGV D UHLQYLJRUDWHG VHW RI SXEOLF ZDWHU LQVWLWXWLRQV ZKLFK DUH built on the following imperatives:

IRFXVLQJ RQ GHYHORSLQJ D VHW RI LQVWUXPHQWV LQFOXGLQJ ZDWHU HQWLWOHPHQWVFRQWUDFWVEHWZHHQSURYLGHUVDQGXVHUVDQGSULFLQJ DQGLQFHQWLYHVWKDWJRYHUQWKHXVHRIZDWHU VWLPXODWLQJ FRPSHWLWLRQ LQ DQG IRU WKH PDUNHW IRU LUULJDWLRQ DQG ZDWHU DQGVDQLWDWLRQVHUYLFHV HPSRZHULQJXVHUVE\JLYLQJWKHPFOHDUHQIRUFHDEOHZDWHUHQWLWOHPHQWV HQGLQJWKHFXOWXUHRIVHFUHF\DQGPDNLQJWUDQVSDUHQF\WKHUXOH LQWURGXFLQJ LQFHQWLYHEDVHG SDUWLFLSDWRU\ UHJXODWLRQ RI VHUYLFHV DQG ZDWHUUHVRXUFHV SXWWLQJWKHVHFWRURQDVRXQG¿QDQFLDOIRRWLQJ LQYHVWLQJ KHDYLO\ LQ GHYHORSPHQW RI D QHZ JHQHUDWLRQ RI PXOWL GLVFLSOLQDU\ZDWHUUHVRXUFHSURIHVVLRQDOV PDNLQJWKHHQYLURQPHQWDKLJKSULRULW\DQG PDNLQJORFDOSHRSOHWKH¿UVWEHQH¿FLDULHVRIPDMRUZDWHUSURMHFWV

The main message of Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry were summarized in a set of “sobering facts, hopeful facts, and challenges.” The “Sobering facts” include:

3DNLVWDQLVVHYHUHO\ZDWHUVWUHVVHG WKHUHLVQRDGGLWLRQDOZDWHUWREHLQMHFWHGLQWRWKHV\VWHP WKLVLVDKLJKULVNV\VWHPLQZKLFKPXFKRIWKHFRXQWU\GHSHQGVRQDVLQJOH ULYHUV\VWHPWKDWVHUYHVWKHZRUOG¶VODUJHVWFRQWLQXRXVLUULJDWLRQV\VWHP WKH UHVRXUFH EDVH LV VHULRXVO\ GHJUDGHG ZLWK VDOW ± WKH PDMRU DQG VWLOO SRRUO\XQGHUVWRRG WKUHDW JURXQGZDWHU LV QRZ EHLQJ RYHUH[SORLWHG LQ PDQ\ DUHDV DQG JURXQGZDWHU TXDOLW\LVGHWHULRUDWLQJ ÀRRGLQJ DQG GUDLQDJH SUREOHPV DUH JRLQJ WR JHW ZRUVH HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH ORZHU,QGXV%DVLQ FOLPDWHFKDQJHSRVHVDPDMRUWKUHDWZLWKGHFOLQHVLQULYHUÀRZVRIDURXQG SHUFHQWFRQFHLYDEOHLQDKXQGUHG\HDUVWLPH 3DNLVWDQKDVDQLQDGHTXDWHNQRZOHGJHEDVHIRUPDQDJLQJDFRPSOH[LQWHJUDWHGV\VWHP

Water science and policy in a changing world

PXFKRIWKHZDWHULQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVLQSRRUUHSDLU WKHV\VWHPLVQRW¿QDQFLDOO\VXVWDLQDEOH 3DNLVWDQKDVWRLQYHVWDQGLQYHVWVRRQLQFRVWO\DQGFRQWHQWLRXVQHZODUJH GDPV WKHV\VWHPLVFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\ODFNRIWUDQVSDUHQF\DQGORZWUXVWDWDOOOHYHOV ±IURPLQWHUSURYLQFLDOWRLQGLYLGXDOIDUPHUVDQG ZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\LVORZ The “hopeful facts” include:

D ORQJHVWDEOLVKHG VHW RI HQWLWOHPHQWV IRU ZDWHU EHWZHHQ SURYLQFHV DPRQJ FDQDOFRPPDQGVGLVWULEXWDULHVDQGRXWOHWVGRZQWRLQGLYLGXDOXVHUV 3DNLVWDQKDVODUJHO\DYRLGHGWKHYLFLRXVFLUFOHLPSOLFLWLQVXEVLGL]LQJHOHFWULFLW\IRUJURXQGZDWHUSXPSLQJ WKHUHLVPXFKVFRSHIRULQFUHDVLQJZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\ WKHUHKDYHEHHQKLJKUHWXUQVWRSUHYLRXVLQYHVWPHQWVLQPDMRUZDWHULQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG 3DNLVWDQ KDV RYHUFRPH PDMRU ³H[LVWHQWLDO´ ZDWHU UHVRXUFH PDQDJHPHQW problems in the past. The “major challenges” include:

GHYHORSLQJ D ZRUOGFODVV NQRZOHGJHEDVHG FDSDFLW\ IRU DGDSWLYH UHVRXUFH PDQDJHPHQWDQGVHUYLFHGHOLYHU\ GHYHORSLQJD¿QDQFLDOO\IHDVLEOHDSSURDFKWRPDLQWDLQLQJDQGPRGHUQL]LQJ H[LVWLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGEXLOGLQJQHHGHGQHZZDWHULQIUDVWUXFWXUH GHYHORSLQJ D PRGHUQ LQVWLWXWLRQDO IUDPHZRUN ZLWK WKH NH\ WDVN EHLQJ WKH development and application of instruments that will motivate sustainable, ÀH[LEOHDQGSURGXFWLYHXVHRIZDWHUDQG WUDFLQJDSULQFLSOHGDQGSUDJPDWLFSDWKIRULPSOHPHQWLQJWKLVUHIRUPDJHQGD over the coming decades.

The point in reproducing these conclusions is to show that the reports did not pull punches, yet they received very high-level recognition and support. 3UHVLGHQW0XVKDUUDIEUDQGLVKHGWKHUHSRUWRQQDWLRQDOWHOHYLVLRQVD\LQJ³7KLVLV what we have to do to secure Pakistan’s water future.” In India, the leading parOLDPHQWDULDQ RQ ZDWHU WKH IRUPHU FKLHI HFRQRPLF DGYLVHU $FKDU\D DQG WKHPLQLVWHURISODQQLQJH[WROOHGWKHFKDQJHLQWKH:RUOG%DQN¶VFRXUVHDQGWKH SULQFLSOHVDQGSROLFLHVDGYRFDWHGLQWKHUHSRUW:KLOHFKDQJHVLQZDWHULQVWLWXtions is slow, everywhere, there have been some initial promising progress on WKHPRVWGLI¿FXOWRILVVXHV)RUH[DPSOHWKHORQJWDERRLVVXHVRIWKHDOORFDWLRQ and transparent administration of water rights is at the heart of two remarkable UHIRUPSURFHVVHVLQWZRRIWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWVXEQDWLRQDOXQLWV±0DKDUDVKWUD 6WDWH LQ ,QGLD 0DKDUDVKWUD DQG 3XQMDE 3URYLQFH LQ 3DNLVWDQ 3XQMDE

J. Briscoe 7KHSRLQWLVWKDWWKHQHZIRXQGFRQ¿GHQFHRIGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQQRZD\ implies rejection of lessons of experience, or rejection of partnership with others. :KDWLWGRHVUHTXLUHKRZHYHULVDSDUWQHUVKLSWKDWLVEDVHGRQUHVSHFWIRUORFDO aspirations and knowledge and in which the outside partner is willing to engage DVDIXOOVHUYLFHSDUWQHU)RUWKH:RUOG%DQNWKLVLQPDQ\ZD\VLV³EDFNWRWKH IXWXUH´%HFDXVHWKH%DQNZDVWKHFHQWUDOSDUWQHUIRUERWKFRXQWULHVLQUHVROYLQJ WKHH[LVWHQWLDOTXHVWLRQRIGLYLVLRQRIWKHZDWHUVRIWKH,QGXVWKDWZDVDQLQWHJUDO SDUW RI WKH EORRG\ SDUWLWLRQ RI WKH ,QGLDQ VXEFRQWLQHQW LQ 7KH %DQN ZDV able to play this role – most notably as the cosignatory of the historic Indus :DWHUV7UHDW\±EHFDXVHWKH%DQNHQJDJHGLQDSUDFWLFDODQGLPSDUWLDOZD\DQG EHFDXVH WKH %DQN ZDV ZLOOLQJ WR HQJDJH ZLWK ERWK WKH ³KDUG´ DQG ³VRIW´ FKDOlenges in an integrated way, helping negotiate the division of the waters. In addiWLRQWKH%DQNSXWLQSODFHWKHLQVWLWXWLRQWKDWKDVPDQDJHGWKLVIRU\HDUVDQG helped build the massive infrastructure that was the other side of the coin. In a VWULNLQJUHSULVHRIWKLVKLVWRU\ZKHQWKH:RUOG%DQNGHFODUHGLWVZLOOLQJQHVVWR re-engage as a full-service partner with Pakistan, including helping in appropriate ways in building large dams on the Indus, the Pakistan government was assured WKDWWKH%DQNZDVZLOOLQJWREHDUHDOSDUWQHUDQGLQYLWHGWKH%DQNWRKHOSVWDUW the process of developing a treaty with Afghanistan on the sharing of waters. Moral of the Story:,QFUHDVLQJO\FRQ¿GHQWDQGUHVRXUFHGGHYHORSLQJFRXQtries welcome partnerships “among equals,” including on the most sensitive of water issue. Three years in Brasilia as the country director for the World Bank’s largest hard-loan borrower , KDG WKH SULYLOHJH RI EHLQJ WKH FRXQWU\ GLUHFWRU IRU %UD]LO WKH :RUOG %DQN¶V ELJJHVWKDUGORDQERUURZHU:KDWGRHVP\H[SHULHQFHLQ%UD]LOWHDFKPHDERXW the changing nature of the relationship between the center and the periphery? (YHU\IRXU\HDUVWKH:RUOG%DQN¶V%RDUGUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIWKHJRYHUQPHQWV ZKR RZQ WKH :RUOG %DQN DUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D VWUDWHJ\ GRFXPHQW WKDW GHVFULEHVWKH:RUOG%DQN¶VSURSRVHGHQJDJHPHQWZLWKWKHFRXQWU\LQTXHVWLRQ ,Q0D\WKH%RDUGGLVFXVVHGDQGGXO\DSSURYHGWKHODWHVWYHUVLRQIRU%UD]LO :RUOG%DQN 7KHFKDQJHVIURPLWVSUHGHFHVVRUZHUHVWULNLQJLQVHYHUDOUHVSHFWV)LUVW ZKLOH%UD]LOLVRIWHQFRQVLGHUHGWREH³WKHODJJLQJ%5,&´WKHFKDQJHVLQ%UD]LO LQ WKH LQWHULP ZHUH KXJH 'UDPDWLF LPSURYHPHQWV LQ WKH TXDOLW\ RI GHEW QRZ DOPRVWDOOLQORFDOFXUUHQF\ KXJHLQFUHDVHVLQIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHUHVHUYHVIURP ELOOLRQWRWKHELOOLRQQRZKHOGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWZKLFKLVVXI¿FLHQWWR FRYHUPRQWKVRILPSRUWVDQGSHUFHQWRIVKRUWWHUPIRUHLJQGHEW ZLWKWKH %UD]LO ULVN SUHPLXP GURSSLQJ IURP SRLQWV WR D PHUH SRLQWV $V %UD]LO¶VFLUFXPVWDQFHVFKDQJHGDVGLGWKDWRIWKHRWKHU%5,&VDQGLQGHHGPRVW RI WKH 0,&V VR WRR GLG WKH QDWXUH RI WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK SDUWQHUV LQFOXGLQJWKH:RUOG%DQN

Water science and policy in a changing world :KHUHWKH:RUOG%DQN¶VGRFXPHQWZDVD&RXQWU\Assistance6WUDWHJ\ IRU%UD]LOWKH%DQN¶VGRFXPHQWLVD&RXQWU\Partnership6WUDWHJ\:KHUH WKH GRFXPHQW SURYLGHG D GHWDLOHG GHVFULSWLRQ RI DOO WKH SURMHFWV WKDW WKH :RUOG%DQNLQWHQGHGWR¿QDQFHRYHUWKHVXEVHTXHQWIRXU\HDUVWKHGRFXPHQW IRFXVHG RQ SULQFLSOHV 7KH IROORZLQJ TXRWHV :RUOG %DQN JLYH D sense of the nature of this change: “The Bank Group should not be engaging in areas where Brazil has the knowledge and capacity to manage by itself”; “The Bank Group cannot act as though it is a ‘shadow government’ in Brazil, attempting to respond to every challenge that Brazil faces”; “The Bank Group should be engaging primarily with the long-run, pathsetting challenges where Brazil has not yet devised solutions and where international experience can be of particular value. Brazilian leaders have LGHQWL¿HGVXFKµGHVD¿RVSDUDGLJPDWLFRV¶RUSDUDGLJPDWLFFKDOOHQJHV´ “Bank analytic work needs to focus less on the ‘what,’ more on the ‘how,’ and on better integration of knowledge, lending and trust-funded activities”; and “The guiding principle is ‘principled opportunism,’ in which elected politLFDOOHDGHUVZKRDUHLQWHUHVWHGLQZRUNLQJZLWKWKH%DQNGH¿QHWKHLUSULRUities, and in which the Bank brings a set of well-articulated principles (based on analytic work and experience in Brazil and elsewhere) to the table.” 7KH UHDFWLRQ IURP WKH 0LGGOH,QFRPH &RXQWULHV RQ WKH %RDUG RI WKH :RUOG %DQN"³7KLVLVWKHVRUWRISDUWQHUVKLSZHZDQWWRKDYHZLWKWKH%DQN´ Moral of the Story: Developing countries are increasingly skeptical of recipes that have not been proven over time. They want partnerships, based on equality, which provide practical, proven, advice, and which start with an understanding of the imperative for economic development. An illustrative example of changed partnership relates to the Amazon. The two emblematic projects that led to huge pressure from northern environmental NGOs DQGULFKFRXQWU\JRYHUQPHQWVRQWKH:RUOG%DQNZHUHWKH6DUGDU6DURYDU'DP RQWKH1DUPDGD5LYHULQ,QGLDGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHU DQGWKHGHIRUHVWDWLRQLQGXFLQJ 3RORQRURHVWH SURMHFWV LQ WKH %UD]LOLDQ $PD]RQ 1*2V EURXJKW PDQ\ LPSRUWDQW LVVXHVWROLJKWDQGIRUPHGSRZHUIXODOOLDQFHVZLWKWKH2(&'JRYHUQPHQWV7KHUH ZHUHDSSURSULDWHSUHVVXUHVIRUWKH%DQNWRLQFRUSRUDWHHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDO

J. Briscoe considerations into its lending practices. However, the NGOs did not have an “off VZLWFK´ 0DOODE\ DQG SXVKHG ZLWK SDVVLYH DQG DFWLYH FRQFXUUHQFH IURP WKHULFKFRXQWU\RZQHUVRIWKH:RUOG%DQNIRUWKH%DQNWRZLWKGUDZIURPLVVXHV that had complex environmental dimensions. In the name of reputation, over the ODVW\HDUVWKH%DQNKDGZLWKGUDZQIURPWKH¿QDQFLQJRIDQ\GHYHORSPHQWLQ WKH$PD]RQFRQ¿QLQJLWVHQJDJHPHQWH[FOXVLYHO\WRWKHFRQVHUYDWLRQVLGHRIWKH development/environment challenge. 7KH¿UVWJRYHUQRU,PHWLQ%UDVLOLDZDVWKHJRYHUQRURI$PD]RQDVZKRVDLG ³7KH%DQNKDVIRFXVHGRQVPDOOERXWLTXHSURMHFWVZKLFKPDNHJUHDWSRVWHUVLQ :DVKLQJWRQEXWDUHLUUHOHYDQWWRWKH%UD]LOLDQ$PD]RQZKHUHVLQJOHPXQLFLSDOLWLHVDUHWKHVL]HRI)UDQFHDQGZKHUHDOORIWKHFRXQWULHVRI(XURSH¿WZLWKDORW RI URRP WR VSDUH´ 7KH FKDOOHQJH LQ WKH %UD]LOLDQ $PD]RQ LV WR UHFRQFLOH IRXU WKLQJV±¿UVWWRPHHWWKHGHYHORSPHQWQHHGVRIWKHPLOOLRQSHRSOHZKROLYH LQWKHUHJLRQVHFRQGWRFRQVHUYHWKHPDVVLYHELRORJLFDOHWKQLFDQGK\GURORJLFDOUHVRXUFHVRIWKHUHJLRQWKLUGWR¿QGZD\VLQZKLFKWKHYDVWUHVRXUFHVRIWKH $PD]RQ±KRPHWRWZRWKLUGVRI%UD]LO¶VK\GURSRZHUSRWHQWLDODQGPDVVLYHJDV DQGPLQHUDOUHVRXUFHV±FDQEHKDUQHVVHGIRUWKHEHQH¿WVRIORFDOQDWLRQDODQG JOREDO SRSXODWLRQV DQG IRXUWK WR ¿QG ZD\V LQ ZKLFK WKH UHJLRQDO DQG JOREDO community can pay for the environmental services the forest produces. 7KDW VWDUWHG D SURFHVV ZKHUHE\ WKH :RUOG %DQN ERWK WKURXJK LWV SXEOLF OHQGLQJDUPWKH,%5'DQGWKURXJKWKH,)&ZKLFKOHQGVWRWKHSULYDWHVHFWRU UH HQJDJHG³DVDIXOOVHUYLFHSDUWQHU´LQWKH%UD]LOLDQ$PD]RQ:LWKLQ%UD]LOPRVW – including the major environmental NGOs – recognized this engagement as HVVHQWLDO DQG DI¿UPDWLYH 2XWVLGH RI %UD]LO LW UHTXLUHG PXFK PRUH FRQVXOWDWLRQ DQG GLVFXVVLRQ ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ DQG UHYHDOLQJO\ WKH GLVFXVVLRQ ZDV PRVW GLI¿FXOW ZLWKLQWKH:RUOG%DQNLQZKLFKWKHUHLVOLWWOHSXQLVKPHQWIRU³VLQVRIRPLVVLRQ´ EXWGUDFRQLDQFRQVHTXHQFHVIRU³VLQVRIFRPPLVVLRQ´,QWKLVSURFHVVWKHJRYHUQPHQWRI3UHVLGHQW/XODVSRNHORXGO\DQGFOHDUO\DERXWWKHQDWXUHRISDUWQHUVKLSV which it would permit and welcome. Two examples make the general point. ([DPSOH2QHLVRID86$,'IXQGHGLQLWLDWLYH±³WKH$PD]RQ&RQVHUYDWLRQ Initiative” –which was designed to help NGOs opposed to development in the Amazon “combat the threat of rapid infrastructure development” by “strengthening of local institutions to slow this expansion.” The project document DQQRXQFHGSURXGO\WKDWWKHVHFUHWDULDWZRXOGEHLQ%UDVLOLD³ZLWKLQZDONLQJGLVWDQFHRIWKH$PD]RQ&RRSHUDWLRQ7UHDW\2UJDQL]DWLRQKHDGTXDUWHUV´7KLVZDV H[WUDRUGLQDU\±KHUHZDVD86JRYHUQPHQWIXQGHGSURMHFWWKDWH[SOLFLWO\DLPHG WRFRXQWHUVRPHRIWKHPDLQGHYHORSPHQWSULRULWLHVVXFKDVWKH0Z5LR 0DGHLUDK\GURSRZHUSURMHFWVDQGWKHWUDQVSRUWOLQNVEHWZHHQ%UD]LODQG3HUX RIWKHHOHFWHGJRYHUQPHQWRI%UD]LO-XVWEHIRUHWKHODXQFKRIWKHLQLWLDWLYHWKH %UD]LOLDQJRYHUQPHQWIRFXVHGRQLWDQGMXVWVDLG³QR´7KHRULJLQDOSURMHFWGRFXPHQW DQG DQ\ UHIHUHQFH WR WKH SURMHFW KDV QRZ GLVDSSHDUHG IURP WKH 86$,' :HEVLWH ([DPSOH 7ZR LV WKH :RUOG %DQN¶V QHZ $PD]RQ 3DUWQHUVKLS )UDPHZRUN ZKLFK LV D FRUQHUVWRQH RI WKH %DQN¶V UHFHQWO\ DSSURYHG &RXQWU\ 3DUWQHUVKLS 6WUDWHJ\ZLWK%UD]LO,WDFNQRZOHGJHVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIERWKGHYHORSPHQWDQG

Water science and policy in a changing world FRQVHUYDWLRQLQWKH$PD]RQDQGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI¿QGLQJZD\VRIUHFRQFLOLQJ WKHVH,WFRPPLWVWKH%DQNWREHLQJDIXOOVHUYLFHSDUWQHUWRWKHIHGHUDODQGVWDWH JRYHUQPHQWVDQGWRWKHSULYDWHVHFWRU,WVHHVWKH%DQN¶VUHSXWDWLRQZKLFKLV IRUPLGDEOHLQ%UD]LO DVDQDVVHWWREHHPSOR\HGUDWKHUWKDQVRPHWKLQJWKDWLVWR EHSXWXQGHUWKHEHGRXWRIKDUP¶VZD\7KHFUHGLELOLW\RIWKH%DQN¶VHQJDJHPHQWLQWKH$PD]RQUHVWVRIVSHFL¿FUHTXHVWVLWKDVUHVSRQGHGWRKHOSLQJWKH JRYHUQPHQW RI %UD]LO WR LVVXH HQYLURQPHQWDO OLFHQVHV IRU WKH 0Z 5LR 0DGHLUDSURMHFWVDQGWRHQVXUHWKDWWKHUHZDVFRPSHWLWLRQZLWKWKHDVVRFLDWHG LQFUHDVHVLQWUDQVSDUHQF\DQGUHGXFWLRQRIFRVWV IRUWKHSURMHFWVGRLQJDPDMRU UHSRUW RQ LPSURYLQJ WKH SURFHVV RI OLFHQVLQJ RI K\GURSRZHU LQ WKH $PD]RQ LQLWLDWLQJDSURFHVVRIHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOFHUWL¿FDWLRQRIEHHISURGXFHGLQ WKH $PD]RQ IXQGLQJ RI VWDWH SURMHFWV IRU SURYLGLQJ EDVLF HGXFDWLRQ KHDOWK ZDWHU VXSSO\ DQG LQFRPHJHQHUDWLQJ RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU SHRSOH LQ WKH $PD]RQ all the while continuing its path-breaking work on the creation of protected areas. $QGWKHUHVSRQVHWRWKLVQHZDSSURDFK")URP%UD]LODOHWWHUIURPWKHPLQLVWHURIHQHUJ\WRWKH%DQNVWDWHG 7KHXQZDYHULQJVXSSRUWRIWKH:RUOG%DQNKDVEURXJKWZRUOGFODVVWHFKQLFDO H[SHUWLVH DQG NQRZOHGJH WR TXHVWLRQV RI HQYLURQPHQW DQG FRPSHWLWLRQ LQ D ZD\ WKDW KDV EHHQ KLJKO\ SULQFLSOHG QRQEXUHDXFUDWLF DQG SURGXFWLYH,UHJDUGWKHVXSSRUWDVIXQGDPHQWDOWRVHWWLQJ%UD]LORQDQHZ and sustainable energy development path. It is this support which makes the :RUOG%DQNDKLJKO\YDOXHGSDUWQHUWR%UD]LO $QGIURPWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIRWKHU0,&VRQWKH%RDUGRIWKH:RUOG%DQN“it embodies the very essence of what we expect to see in the Bank’s work with its middle-income partners”0LQLVWHURI0LQHVDQG(QHUJ\ Moral of the Story: Developing countries are young and vital. Their leaders are judged by what they do, not what they avoid doing.

Summary This chapter explores the space between theory and practice, drawing on decades of experience as a development practitioner and focusing on the political HFRQRP\ RI GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ DQG RQ WKH LVVXHV RI PRUDO KD]DUG LQ DQ XQHTXDO world. 7KH¿UVWVHFWLRQVWDUWVZLWKDQH[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHGDQJHUVRIDKLVWRULFQRUPative prescriptions, based on a never-realized, idealized view of the world. It argues that principles based on experience are, indeed, important, but that the hallmark of applying these must be “principled pragmatism.” The section suggests some initial “rules for reformers,” which can help guide the application of principles into widely varying historic, economic, and natural conditions prevailing in the developing world.

J. Briscoe The second section describes how the purveyors of global advice are like ships in the night, passing by those who actually make decisions in developing FRXQWULHV1RORQJHULV³WKHSHULSKHU\´DQGHVSHFLDOO\WKH0,&V FRQWHQWWRWDNH its cues from rich countries. These countries see themselves – with reason – as the young and dynamic centers of economic development. They demand new approaches, including water policy and management, that take inspiration from WKHLU G\QDPLF QHHGV UDWKHU WKDQ WKH QHHGV RI WKH VWDEOH VORZO\FKDQJLQJ ³ROG ZRUOG´ 6RPH H[DPSOHV DUH SUHVHQWHG RI ZKDW ± LQ WKH DXWKRUV¶ VHOIVHUYLQJ DQDO\VLV±DUHHOHPHQWVRIDQHZPRUHPDWXUHHTXDODQGSURGXFWLYHUHODWLRQship between the formulators of theories and those who implement and live in developing countries.

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References $FKDU\D6 ,QGLD¶V:DWHU7URXEOHVBusiness Standard2FWREHUS %ODFNERXUQ ' The Conquest of Nature: Water, Landscape, and the Making of Modern Germany1HZ
Water science and policy in a changing world 0F&XOO\3 7KHXVHRIDWULODWHUDOQHWZRUN$QDFWLYLVW¶VSHUFHSWLRQRQWKHIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH :RUOG &RPPLVVLRQ RQ 'DPV American University International Law Review ± 0LFKHO$$ The Indus Rivers: Study of the Effects of Partition1HZ+DYHQ&7
11 Promises under construction The evolving paradigm for water governance and the case of Northern Mexico Margaret Wilder Introduction The evolving international paradigm for water governance is, in its essence, about transforming the social relations of power over water. It is about new relationships between states and citizens as water users; between markets and states; between markets and citizens; and among interest groups. It is about new sets of actors relating to one another at the local water policy-making table or in planQLQJORQJWHUPVWUDWHJLHVIRUZDWHUVKHGV,QWKHÀDWWHQHGDQGSDUWLFLSDWRU\KLHUarchy envisioned, it is about the voices of marginalized groups – the colonia or favela dweller, the indigenous tribe, the small-scale communal farmer, the IDFWRU\ ZRUNHU WKH KRXVHZLIH ± LQÀXHQFLQJ WKH SODQV RI SROLF\ PDNHUV ,Q WKH dreams of those with a particular vision who have led the development of this new paradigm, it is perhaps not reaching to say the new water agenda is fundamentally about the goal of democracy itself. Yet as Helen Ingram (Ingram 2008) has suggested, experience is teaching us that universal prescriptions for achieving this goal of a democratized water policy have not worked, and that we must ORRN WR FRQWH[WVSHFL¿F FRQVWUXFWLRQ RI SUREOHPV DQG WKHLU VROXWLRQV ,Q WKLV VSLULWWKHQZHWXUQWRWKHVSHFL¿FFDVHRI0H[LFR Mexico has been seen as an important developing world leader at the forefront of national water policy transition. In 2006, Mexico hosted the Fourth World Water Forum and proudly displayed its modernized water sector and achievements to the global community. Fifteen years after its sweeping transLWLRQ WR D QHZ ZDWHU SROLF\ EDVHG RQ WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO SDUDGLJP 0H[LFR ¿QGV itself in a mature phase in which the honeymoon has faded, and the country now faces the ever more urgent prospect of consolidating the decentralization and sustainability principles embedded within its water governance framework. In the context of food and agricultural production, Mexico’s development strategy in the twentieth century gave rise to diverse agricultural models that privileged the northern region over other parts of the country. Due to Mexico’s massive land reform programs of the twentieth century, small-scale communal farms known as ejidos or agrarian communities occupy half the cultivable land in Mexico. In the center and southern regions of Mexico, small-scale rainfed production of corn and beans for subsistence use and regional sale predominates on communal (ejido or

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agrarian community) farms. Much attention has appropriately been paid to the food security and rural livelihood challenges of traditional corn producers in southern Mexico under the ravages of the North American Free Trade Agreement that opened the domestic market to cheap corn imports and caused hundreds of thousands of small farmers to choose to migrate (Leichenko and O’Brien 2008; Nadal 2000; de Janvry et al. 1995). By contrast, in the north and northwest regions, irrigated, commercial production of high-value agro-exports is the dominant agricultural model, and less attention has been paid to the impacts of agricultural and neoliberal reforms on small-scale communal farmers there. Within irrigated agriculture in the northwest state of Sonora, ejido farmers on small parcels represent about 70 percent of total producers, though controlling only 15 percent of cultivated land, and occupy unique productive niches linking into the global agricultural economy (INEGI 1991). These ejido farmers bear close analysis because they are operating in a modernized and technologically sophisticated environment of production that should in theory be a promising crucible for the success of the new water-and-agriculture model. Nevertheless, the water governance and other neoliberal reforms introduced in the mid-1990s have led to mixed but predominantly negative consequences for ejido farmers. Irrigation management transfer led to an increase in decision-making and selfempowerment for ejido farmers. But the exposure of ejido farmers to a broad range of free trade agreements and market arrangements led to an economic squeeze on ejido farmers who are losing their access to land and water, giving rise to concerns about the equity of the reform package and the prospects for the ejido sector. Drought and climate change are expected to reduce water supply further and make the race for water access in the irrigated desert northwest even more intensive in the coming decades. This chapter takes the pulse of Mexico’s water policy transition today. The DQDO\VLV XWLOL]HV ¿YH NH\ LQGLFDWRUV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VXFFHVVIXO ZDWHU SROLF\ UHIRUP ± HI¿FLHQF\ DQG GHFHQWUDOL]HG DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ SDUWLFLSDWLRQ HTXLW\ DQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\±DQGHYDOXDWHVWKHPLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWZRVSHFL¿FVHFWRUVLUULJDtion districts and urban water management in northwest Mexico. The chapter DGYDQFHV WKUHH PDLQ DUJXPHQWV ¿UVW WKDW 0H[LFR¶V ZHGGLQJ RI PDUNHWL]DWLRQ and decentralization has been an uneasy marriage that must be constantly mediated and negotiated if Mexico is serious in wanting to achieve the desired JRDOVRIHI¿FLHQF\LQFRPSDQ\ZLWKHTXLW\VXVWDLQDELOLW\DQGSDUWLFLSDWLRQ,Q the post-transition phase, Mexico has functioning market institutions such as formal water markets for trading surplus irrigation rights, a public registry of ZDWHU ULJKWV DQG PRYLQJ ZDWHU WR PRUH HI¿FLHQW KLJKHU YDOXH XVHV EXW KDV stalled out in its equity and sustainability initiatives such as management to achieve water conservation and effective participatory mechanisms. Second, that Mexico’s democratic transition has, paradoxically, led to a more fragmented national and regional politics – and especially, party politics – that has made it PRUH GLI¿FXOW WR SXVK D XQL¿HG GHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ DQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\ DJHQGD forward (Wilder 2009). In this sense, the Mexican case underscores the admonition that more attention must be paid to “the politics of water” (Ingram

224 M. Wilder $QGWKLUGDV0H[LFR¶VH[SHULPHQWZLWKPDUNHWL]DWLRQDQGGHFHQWUDOization enters a more mature phase, it bears witness to the temporal and spatial FKDOOHQJHVRIZDWHUWUDQVLWLRQ±WKDWLWLVPRUHGLI¿FXOWWRVXVWDLQDPXOWLIDFHWHG transition over decades and across regions than to launch the transition in the ¿UVW SODFH 6LQFH PDUNHW PHFKDQLVPV DUH QRWRULRXVO\ SRRU DW DGGUHVVLQJ VRFLDO and distributional inequities, developing countries like Mexico must strive to get the balance right – to develop decentralized management and sustainable processes not only as a counter to the excesses of the market, but representative of a substantive and fundamental democratizing shift in the social relations of power and control over water. The fundamental question at this moment is whether 0H[LFR±HVSHFLDOO\WKH0H[LFDQVWDWH±KDVWKHZLOODQGWKHFDSDFLW\WRIXO¿OO these “promises under construction,”1 or whether the full promise of the national ZDWHUSROLF\WUDQVLWLRQZLOOUHPDLQXQIXO¿OOHGDVLWLVFXUUHQWO\ The next section of the chapter provides an overview of Mexico’s water situation, national water policy, and the state of the legislation today. The third section analyzes the outcomes of the water governance strategy based on evidHQFH IURP WKH LUULJDWLRQ DQG XUEDQ ZDWHU VHUYLFHV VHFWRU LQ 6RQRUD 7KH ¿QDO section of the chapter discusses future challenges for Mexico and implications and conclusions of the Mexican case for the developing world.

The water governance paradigm in Mexico 7KH PRVW VLJQL¿FDQW IDFHW RI 0H[LFR¶V QDWLRQDO ZDWHU SROLF\ WUDQVLWLRQ LV LWV embedded nature as part of the broader project of political opening and modernizing of Mexico’s economy in the early 1990s (Wilder 2008). From its outset in 0H[LFR¶VZDWHUSROLF\WUDQVLWLRQZDVDERXWPDUNHWVDQGHI¿FLHQF\DVWKH country prepared to join the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (Tellez 1993). Within the next dozen years, Mexico would sign a dozen new free trade agreements exposing agricultural producers and corporations to competition and economic pressure from a dozen new national players, at the same time as Mexico itself undertook massive economic restructuring that included privatization of state-owned companies, elimination of subsidies, initiation of market reforms, and a reduced government size and capacity (Wilder and :KLWHIRUG 0H[LFR ZDV DOVR LQÀXHQFHG E\ WKH HPHUJLQJ LQWHUQDWLRQDO SDUDGLJPIRUZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWUHÀHFWHGDWWKH(DUWK6XPPLWLQ5LRGH-DQHLUR and the Dublin Principles, by the World Bank’s water resources policy and by conditionality requirements (Wilder 2008; Martínez 2007; Whiteford and 0HOYLOOH%ODWWHUDQG,QJUDP 7KHVHLQWHUQDWLRQDOLQÀXHQFHVHPSKDVized decentralized governance, local participation, environmental sustainability and integrated water resources management (Varady et al. 2008; Conca 2006; Gleick et al. 2002; Blatter and Ingram 2001). Mexico’s transition to a new water PDQDJHPHQW IUDPHZRUN ZDV DGGLWLRQDOO\ LQÀXHQFHG E\ D UDQJH RI H[RJHQRXV and endogenous factors, including the country’s political opening, its turn to neoliberal economic restructuring, a greatly retrenched role for the state vis-à-vis markets, and the emergence of civil society actors demanding more voice over

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water allocation, services, pricing, and quality (Wilder 2008; Castro 2006; Whiteford and Melville 2002; Liverman and Merideth 2002; Bennet 1995).2 0H[LFR¶VWUDQVLWLRQWRDQHZZDWHUSROLF\LVUHÀHFWHGLQWKH1DWLRQDO:DWHU /DZ/H\GH$JXDV1DFLRQDOHVRU/$1 RI'HFHPEHUPRGL¿HGLQ$SULO 2004. The LAN mirrored the major features of World Bank water resources SROLF\:RUOG%DQN IRUGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJ a b c d e f g

establishment of a public registry of water rights to provide secure water rights; establishment of formal markets for trading surpluses; reduction or elimination of subsidies and initiation of full-cost recovery (“consumer pays”) water pricing; irrigation management transfer for major irrigation districts; municipal and state management of urban water and sanitation services; allowance of private sector management of water services via government concession; and integrated water resources management to institutionalize local participation through the creation of a network of major river basin councils (consejos de cuenca).

In 1989, the National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua, CONAGUA) was created to develop and implement the water policy and transition processes. Under the new law, CONAGUA was formally given a policymaking and oversight role, although in practice it has maintained a great deal of LQÀXHQFHRYHURSHUDWLRQVDQGUHWDLQHGNH\VWUDWHJLFIXQFWLRQVZLWKLQLWVMXULVGLFWLRQ:LOGHUDQG5RPHUR/DQNDR In 2004, a bill modifying the national water law was presented to strengthen the decentralization and sustainability aspects of the water law, but was vetoed by President Vicente Fox, who objected to the extent of decentralized adminisWUDWLYH DQG ¿VFDO DXWKRULW\ SURSRVHG :LOGHU Crónica Legislativa 2004). 7KHUHIRUPV¿QDOO\DSSURYHGLQ$SULOUHSUHVHQWDZDWHUHGGRZQYHUVLRQRI WKH RULJLQDOO\ SURSRVHG PRGL¿FDWLRQV OHDYLQJ &21$*8$ ³GHFRQFHQWUDWHG´ into 13 regional headquarters (Organismos de Cuenca) organized around major watersheds but not administratively decentralized (Wilder 2008). The 2004 law VSHFL¿HV WKH UROH PHPEHUVKLS DQG DFWLYLWLHV RI WKH ULYHU EDVLQ FRXQFLOV DQG indicates that the environment itself can be a legitimate water user. Despite these apparent advances of the sustainability agenda, the regulations to implement the 2004 law have never been adopted and are stalled in the halls of the Mexican legislature, leading to a kind of legal and philosophical limbo for the decentralization/sustainability advancements represented by the 2004 law.3

Northwest Mexico water supply and demand Mexico has a total population of 100 million, of whom 75 percent live in urban areas and 25 percent in rural areas (CONAGUA 2008). Mexico has a reasonably ample per capita water supply (4,416 m3/person/year, between the United States

226 M. Wilder and Japan/France) but the geography of natural availability of water is disproporWLRQDWHWRWKHJHRJUDSK\RIZDWHUGHPDQG&21$*8$&KDS $V Sandford (2007) has demonstrated for Canada’s mountain west, the western United States and Mexican west also face the challenge of demographic growth, coupled with climate change. CONAGUA (2008) reports that the densely populated center and north zones of Mexico have 77 percent of the population (mostly in urban areas), but only 31 percent of the natural water supply; conversely, the water-wealthy south of Mexico has only 23 percent of the population but 69 percent of supply. Mexico uses 77 percent of water supply for agriculture (85 percent in commercial irrigation districts and 15 percent in smaller irrigation units), 14 percent for urban use and 9 percent for industrial. The north and northwest regions of Mexico are the most drought-prone, arid zones in the country, and one-third of regional aquifers are severely over-exploited. Average annual rainfall in the northwest region (including Sonora and a sliver of western Chihuahua), averages 476 mm/year, roughly half the national average (772 mm/year). While the average annual growth rate of Sonora in the 1990s was equivalent to that of all of Mexico (about 2 percent per year), its major urban areas grew at a much faster rate, with Hermosillo, the capital, at 3.13 percent and Nogales, Sonora at 4 percent (INEGI 2000; and www.inegi.gob.mx). Sonora is in Mexico’s most drought-prone region. As in the case of Spain (Garrido and Iglesias 2008), Mexico’s water managers are struggling to cope with periodic severe droughts. Climate change is projected to create conditions 5 to 10 percent drier by 2050 in northwest Mexico, and temperatures are projected to increase by 2– 3°C over the next 25 to 50 years. Extreme heat events are likely to increase, and summer mean precipitation (when northwest Mexico receives most of its rainfall in a typical year) is projected to decrease. Other climate-related changes include reductions in water supply from snowmelt, higher evapotranspi-

Figure 11.1 Annual growth rate of the largest municipalities, Sonora, Mexico, 1990–2005.

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ration rates, decreased soil moisture, and longer, more severe droughts (IPCC Working Group I 2007; Christensen and Lettenmaier 2007; Diffenbaugh et al. *DU¿Q 7KHFRQYHUJLQJYHFWRUVRIZDWHUVXSSO\XUEDQJURZWKDQG FOLPDWHFKDQJHFUHDWHDSDWWHUQRIKLJKYXOQHUDELOLW\IRU0H[LFR¶VQRUWK5D\ et al. 2007; Liverman and Merideth 2002; Magaña and Conde 2000). Water supply, intensive water use, urban growth, and climate change all portend future challenges for water resources management in northwestern Mexico. The next section turns to the key indicators analysis in the context of two VLJQL¿FDQWVHFWRUVLUULJDWHGDJULFXOWXUHDQGXUEDQZDWHUVHUYLFHV

Water policy transition in context 7ZRVHFWRUVDUHFHQWUDOWR0H[LFR¶VZDWHUJRYHUQDQFHWUDQVLWLRQLUULJDWLRQGLVtricts and urban water services.4 Irrigation is critical to food supply, producing 3.6 times as much as rainfed production.5 Although agriculture’s contribution to national gross domestic product (GDP) is less than 4 percent, irrigated agriculture generates 50 percent of the value of total production, and represents 70 percent of agricultural exports and 80 percent of agricultural employment (ContLMRFK(VFRQWULD 6RQRUD¶VLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVXVHPRUHWKDQSHUFHQW of available water supply, and cities use 14 percent. With 6.3 million hectares under irrigation, Mexico is the seventh-largest irrigator in the world, and Sonora, with seven major irrigation districts, is the state with the most area under irrigaWLRQ &21$*8$ ,UULJDWHG DJULFXOWXUH LV D SUHGRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF activity in northwest Mexico, generating 12 percent of Sonora’s GDP and employing 21 percent of the economically active population, and the region is Mexico’s agricultural powerhouse producing wheat, cotton, melons, citrus, asparagus, table grapes, olives, and raisins. Urban growth trends in Sonora have been driven by the acceleration of border industrialization due to adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).6 The loss of agricultural subsidies, trade protections, and price supports under NAFTA disrupted southern, rural livelihoods, and contributed to an annual migration stream to northern industrialized cities; an estimated 500,000 annually are unauthorized migrants to WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 3DVVHO DQG &RKQ :DWHU VXSSO\ LVVXHV LQFUHDVLQJO\ LQYROYHDJULFXOWXUHXUEDQWUDQVIHUVDQGFDQUHVXOWLQHFRQRPLFDOO\GLI¿FXOWWUDGHoffs (Wilder et al. &LWLHVDQGLUULJDWLRQGLVWULFWVDUHWKHPRVWVLJQL¿FDQW water users and represent the major economic sectors within Sonora. Five indicators related to the major goals of Mexico’s water governance paradigm are key to an assessment of how institutionalized the changes have become DQGKRZZHOOWKH\KDYHZRUNHG D b c d e

LPSURYHGHI¿FLHQF\ decentralized administration; substantive local participation; increased equity (e.g. access, distribution, affordability); and improved environmental sustainability.

228 M. Wilder While these indicators are not exhaustive, they represent key areas that the emerging water governance scheme had intended to reshape into more democraWL]HG VSDFHV (I¿FLHQF\ LV XVHG DV D FRPSRVLWH WHUP WR FDSWXUH WKH UDQJH RI changes that have introduced markets, privatization, and secure water rights, and that focus on water as an economic good. Decentralized administration refers to irrigation management transfer and a new federal-water user relationship in the agricultural sector and to municipal (or state-level) management of urban water services in the urban sector. Participation refers both to the substantive quality of public participatory mechanisms in the conception, design, and implementation of water policy, as well as to the representative and inclusive nature of such PHFKDQLVPV /DUVRQ DQG 5LERW (TXLW\ LV D FRPSRVLWH WHUP XVHG WR FDSWXUHWZRDVSHFWVRIWKHFRQFHSWRIHTXLW\VDOLHQWLQZDWHUSROLF\³SROLWLFDO´ equity, referring to the role and quality of local participation in water policy making; and “economic” equity, referring to the availability, accessibility, DIIRUGDELOLW\DQGSURGXFWLYLW\RIZDWHULQFOXGLQJWKHTXHVWLRQRIZKREHQH¿WV from water’s generative activities (Wilder 2008). Finally, environmental sustainability in this chapter relies upon the commonly-cited Brundtland Commission 81 GH¿QLWLRQ RI VXVWDLQDELOLW\ DV ³WR PHHW WKH QHHGV RI WKH SUHVHQW without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” 7KLVGH¿QLWLRQLPSOLHVDIRFXVRQVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIWKHHQYLURQPHQWWRHQVXUHLWV healthy continuance into the future, lending an inherent (not merely utilitarian) value to preservation of the environment itself. (I¿FLHQF\DQGGHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ Irrigation districts Water users inherited broken-down irrigation systems when districts were transferred to water users, due to a neglect of infrastructure maintenance during the SUHYLRXV GHFDGHV %\ D :RUOG 5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWH VWXG\ HVWLPDWHG PRUH than $300 billion pesos were needed in repairs (Cummings et al. 1989). Half the LUULJDWLRQ VXSSO\ QHYHU UHDFKHG WKH LQWHQGHG ¿HOGV VDOLQL]DWLRQ ZDV D JURZLQJ problem in coastal districts, and distribution canals were silting up in areas affected by erosion (Cummings et al. %XUDV
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transference program has been unsuccessful to date at incorporating indigenous irrigation districts into the modernization program (Galindo 2008; Wilder 2002). 7KHSDUWLFXODUWUDQVIHUHQFHVWUDWHJ\DGRSWHGE\0H[LFRZDVKHDYLO\LQÀXHQFHG by the World Bank. CONAGUA carried out the transference program under the DXVSLFHVRILWV3URJUDPIRU,QYHVWPHQWLQ,UULJDWLRQDQG'UDLQDJH3,5' ZLWKD total budget of $1.195 billion. The World Bank provided a US$350 million loan – about 30 percent of the total), supplemented by another US$200 million from the Inter-American Development Bank, representing nearly 50 percent of the WRWDOSURMHFWHGFRVWVRIWKHWUDQVIHUHQFHSURJUDP3LQHGD%ODQFDUWH The Mexican government funded the balance.7 The transference program was implemented relatively smoothly. In less than ten years, Mexico supplanted an irrigation structure over 100 years old and created a new structure in a variety of settings across a geographically and economically diverse country. A World Bank study concluded that Mexico’s transference program was successful enough to cause the Bank to reverse its priorities for irrigation rehabilitation, and PRGHUQL]DWLRQIURPLWVWUDGLWLRQDOHPSKDVLVRQUHKDELOLWDWH¿UVWDQGWKHQWUDQVIHU WR D IRFXV RQ WUDQVIHU ¿UVW WKHQ UHKDELOLWDWH (DVWHU et al. 1998).8 In the PHPEHUVWURQJ 5LR
230 M. Wilder rights in gravity districts, although trades have declined since the ten-year drought. Trades can be done on an annual basis (rental) or a permanent basis (sale). Full-cost pricing of water is viewed as a major highlight of the water policy transition by the World Bank (Easter et al. 1998), yet for irrigators it represents WKH VKLIWLQJ RI WKH SUHGRPLQDQW ¿QDQFLDO EXUGHQ RI LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV IURP WKH state to water users. Before 1990, CONAGUA was fully responsible for system improvements, and irrigators were responsible for about 30 percent of costs (through fees paid to CONAGUA). By 1997, CONAGUA investment decreased WR RQO\ SHUFHQW 3DODFLRV 9HOH] %\ WKH :RUOG %DQN reported that water users in 84 percent of transferred irrigation districts were paying 100 percent of operating and maintenance (O and M) costs (Easter et al. 7KHUHVXOWRIWKHVWDWH¶VVHOIVXI¿FLHQF\VWUDWHJ\KDVEHHQDKXJHLQFUHDVH LQZDWHUFRVWVERUQHE\LUULJDWRUVWKHPVHOYHV:LOGHUDQG5RPHUR/DQNDR Water costs in the two Sonoran irrigation districts mirror the enormous water fee increases documented elsewhere in Mexico after the water reforms (Palacios :KLWHIRUGDQG%HUQDO ,QWKH5LR
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In general, the transference program remains a positive aspect of the water JRYHUQDQFHSDUDGLJPLQ0H[LFRE\LPSURYLQJV\VWHPHI¿FLHQF\IRUPDOL]LQJD role for ejido producers within irrigation district institutions, and giving producHUVPRUHLQÀXHQFHRYHUKRZWRSULRULWL]HSURMHFWVVXSSRUWHGE\UHYHQXHV2QWKH negative side, full-cost recovery pricing of irrigation, reduction of state credit and technical assistance, and exposure to a dozen new free trade arrangements within a dozen years has left producers feeling abandoned by the government and exposed to the vicissitudes of global agricultural markets. Ejido producers have been disproportionately affected by these adverse consequences due to their lack of access to credit, inability to deal with elimination of subsidies, and reliance upon government technical assistance, among other factors. Urban water services Mexico’s cities are burgeoning with unplanned growth, and as colonias spring up on the edges of cities, they often lack residential water and sanitation coverage for decades. As a national average, 89.6 percent have residential water hook-ups (an increase from 78.4 percent in 1990, prior to the transition) and 86 percent have sanitation (an increase from 61.5 percent in 1990) (CONAGUA 2008, &KDSWHU 1DWLRQDOO\RQO\SHUFHQWRIZDWHULVWUHDWHGDQGUDZVHZDJH and industrial discharges contaminate local water supplies, leading to high consumption rates of bottled water among the poorest neighborhoods (CONAGUA %ODFNPDQ &LW\ZDWHUV\VWHPVDUHSODJXHGE\ORZHI¿FLHQF\UDQJLQJ IURPRQO\WRSHUFHQW&21$*8$&KDSWHU 'URXJKWKDVOHGWR water rationing in northwest Mexico during the scorching summer months when temperatures reach well over 100°F (40°C) daily, and water pressure is often so low that even households have unreliable service only a few hours a day (Browning et al. 2007). Municipal governments inherit broken infrastructures from the IHGHUDO JRYHUQPHQW XQGHU GHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ EXW ODFN WKH ¿QDQFLDO DQG WHFKQLFDO UHVRXUFHVWRUHSDLULPSURYHDQGH[WHQGXUEDQZDWHUV\VWHPVGXHWRLQVXI¿FLHQW revenue-sharing and lack of autonomous taxation authority (Pineda 2007; 2002). 0XQLFLSDOZDWHURI¿FLDOVRIWHQODFNLQFHQWLYHVWRXQGHUWDNHWKHUHTXLUHGSODQQLQJ LQYHVWPHQWVDQGUHYHQXHFROOHFWLRQIRUPRUHHI¿FLHQWVHUYLFHVGXHWRWKHLUVKRUW WKUHH\HDUWHUPVLQRI¿FHXQGHUSROLWLFDOSDWURQDJHV\VWHPV3LQHGD3DEORV et al. 2007). The new phenomenon, for Mexico, of political alternancia (alternating political parties in power rather than one dominant party) has made the political landscape for water managers more seismic (Pineda Pablos 2006). In urban areas like Hermosillo, the capital of Sonora, residents are unaccustomed to paying water fees and resistant to metering schemes (op. cit.). Municipal governments have in some cases turned to the private sector for relief. Privatization has not only been a panacea but, in many cases, has exacerbated existing problems. Privatization of municipal water systems does not correlate with more effective service, nor is it more accountable than public management; in fact, privatization tends to consolidate power within existing elites (Pineda 2002; Bennet 1995). Private systems require strong state oversight (of a more transparent, accountable

232 M. Wilder VWDWH WR HQVXUH DFFRXQWDELOLW\ WR WKH SXEOLF :LOGHU DQG 5RPHUR /DQNDR Bennet 1995). Summary results from studies of four municipalities9 with decentralized management (different combinations of municipal, state and private) indiFDWH WKDW QRQH RI WKH FDVHV UHVXOWHG LQ HI¿FLHQF\ JDLQV RU VXVWDLQDELOLW\ improvements. Enforcement was often subjugated to political and economic considerations. Privatization strategies were found to have limited capacity to resolve politically charged issues such as water scarcity, redistribution of water rights or HQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\:LOGHUDQG5RPHUR/DQNDR 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ In the transition to a new water policy, Mexico created multiple institutions to formalize and institutionalize water user and public participation. Torregrosa states that there is “a growing social demand to participate” but that “the participation allowed by the National Water Commission is delimited, and is limited to GH¿QLWH IRUPV LQ D WRSGRZQ IDVKLRQ´ 0DUWtQH] LQWHUYLHZ ZLWK 0DULD /XLVD Torregrosa 2007). She states, It excludes autonomous social and citizen organization forms that are concerned and struggle for an equitable and more sustainable access to the resource [e.g. water]. For instance, the parties represented [on the consejos de cuenca] are informed about government decisions taken with respect to the basin, but they are impeded from taking part in those decisions 0DUWtQH]LQWHUYLHZZLWK7RUUHJURVD Irrigation districts In irrigation districts, there is in place an effective participatory arrangement that VHHPV VDWLVIDFWRU\ WR ZDWHU XVHUV VWXGLHG :LOGHU DQG 5RPHUR /DQNDR Wilder and Whiteford 2006). At the upper organizational levels, the “hydraulic committee” brings together CONAGUA and district management with the dirHFWRUVRIDOOWKHPRGXOHVQXPEHULQJLQWKHFDVHRIWKH5LR
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Urban water services With regard to the goal of public participation in urban water management, there LVVRPHHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHPRGL¿FDWLRQVRIWKH1DWLRQDO:DWHU/DZFRXOG lead to increased public consultation. The 2004 law states that CONAGUA should institutionalize and formalize public participation in decision making at the national, state, and municipal levels.10 A 2006 Sonora state water law, in turn, requires each municipal water service provider to establish an advisory group (consejo consultivo) whose membership and responsibilities are detailed within the law.11 Since its passage, municipalities such as Navojoa and Obregón have established municipal advisory councils and Hermosillo, the state capital, already has a well-functioning municipal advisory group. 12 Although there is evidence that states have institutionalized some means of public participation, the quality and representativeness of the participatory processes are the key to substantive participation. It is likely that the requirement for participation, and the related aspects of transparency and accountability to the public, will become more rooted expectations over time, as has proved the case in areas like the United States-Mexico border, where public participation processes have become entrenched over the last 15 years (Lemos and Luna 1999). (TXLW\DQG6XVWDLQDELOLW\ (TXLW\ DQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\ DUH WKH ¿QDO PDMRU LQGLFDWRUV WR DVVHVV YLVjYLV Mexico’s national water policy transition. Have the changes over the last 15 years enhanced equity or increased sustainability? This indicator is the area in which the least progress has been achieved of any examined in this analysis. Irrigation districts Irrigation districts have spent much of the last decade grappling with the challenge of increasing and diversifying agricultural production, due to the pressures exerted by liberalized trade, while at the same time living through an extended ten-year drought (1994–2004). In terms of sustainability, irrigation districts managed by water users have arguably been better at coping with drought and water shortage WKDQ WKH IHGHUDO JRYHUQPHQW DJHQF\ 6$5+ WKDW PDQDJHG WKH GLVWULFWV SULRU WR transference. For example, in the Caborca irrigation district, water users immediately imposed a water reduction program upon themselves after transference, and required every irrigator to pull a planted area out of production each year. They successfully lobbied Mexico City for the resources to install nearly universal drip LUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVIRUPRUHHI¿FLHQWZDWHUXVH:LOGHUDQG:KLWHIRUG 7KH ZDWHUUHGXFWLRQSODQKDVSURYHGLQVXI¿FLHQWWRKDOWWKHVHULRXVJURXQGZDWHUGHSOHtion rate; however, in recent years, the irrigation district has retired wells in order WRVORZGHSOHWLRQUDWHV1RQHRIWKHVHZDWHUVDYLQJSURFHVVHVLVLQWHQGHGWREHQH¿W the groundwater aquifer long-term, but only to allow area irrigators to continue the most valuable agricultural production for high-value exports like fresh grapes and

234 M. Wilder asparagus – crops produced only by private producers, not ejidatarios (Wilder and Whiteford 2006). It has created a veneer of short-term sustainability (conserve so we can irrigate next year), while leaving the long-term challenge of sustainability FRQVHUYHVRWKHDTXLIHUFDQUHSOHQLVKLWVHOI XQIXO¿OOHG In the Costa de Hermosillo citrus-exporting groundwater district, Moreno (2006) remained pessimistic about environmental sustainability of the new water management paradigm. Moreno cites water extraction rates that have at times exceeded four times replacement rates; the febrility of the river basin councils and new laws and policies that were intended to improve aquifer health but were prevented by legal ambiguity and economic considerations; and the lack of politLFDOZLOOWRFRQGXFWVFLHQWL¿FVWXGLHVWRDVFHUWDLQDFWXDOJURXQGZDWHUOHYHOVGXH WR WKH SROLWLFDO IDOORXW LI VXFK LQIRUPDWLRQ ZHUH GH¿QLWLYHO\ NQRZQ +H FRQcludes that the new water management and agricultural development paradigms privileges economic goals over social and environmental objectives in order to IDYRUDVPDOOVHFWRURIWKHSRSXODWLRQ0RUHQR 7KHZDWHUFRQVHUYLQJSUDFWLFHVRIWKHLUULJDWLRQGLVWULFWVUDLVHVLJQL¿FDQWHTXLW\ issues. The drought and water shortage, combined with intensifying pressures from international markets, have spiked the need for more water within these districts. The formal water markets established as part of the water policy reforms have created pressure on the most vulnerable ejido producers to transfer their “surplus” water rights annually or to lease them out on a long-term basis. Unfortunately, far from being a sale of surplus water rights as a strategic business transaction as argued by the World Bank (see Thobani 1997, for example) most such transfers are basically distress sales, in which ejido producers face accumulated debt or need a quick cash injection to pay a child’s medical bills or address another urgent need (Wilder and Whiteford 2006). In company with the Article 27 ejido reforms that allowed the legal sale or rental of ejido parcels to private buyers, adopted the same year (1992) as the new water law, the economic pressures on the water and ejido resources have led to accelerated renting of water and land to the private/corporate producer sector. In the Caborca district, more than half of ejido lands are rented out to private producers (under contract to Dole Inc. or Lee Brand for their asparaJXV DQG IXOO\ WKUHHIRXUWKV RI HMLGR ODQGV LQ WKH 5LR
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years or decades for hook-up services. While this unevenness was not caused by the water governance transition, neither has the new paradigm been able to address this root issue of unplanned growth and inadequate infrastructure to meet urban demand. In Sonora, the largest cities are dependent upon severely overdrafted groundwater aquifers and drought-affected surface water supplements for potable water. Groundwater sources are especially important for cities. Of the water delivered to Mexican cities, 70 percent is from groundwater sources, serving approximately 75 million people (three-quarters of the country’s population). Aquifer overdrafting has tripled over the last 25 years and the balance between natural recharge and extractions (due to agricultural and urban use) is negative in the most critical arid regions, like Sonora (Wilder and Whiteford 2006). Water managers in Hermosillo, for example, have increasingly relied upon marginalized peri-urban ejidos to augment the water supply of the growing city (Wilder et al. 2010). Climate change forecasts for reduced water supply, coupled with intensifying patterns of urban and agricultural use, portend increasing urbanDJULFXOWXUH FRQÀLFWV RYHU ZDWHU WKDW DUH OLNHO\ WR WKUHDWHQ DFFHVV WR ZDWHU IRU poor colonias on the edges of big cities like Hermosillo and Nogales, and for ejidos located within the peri-urban regions of these cities. The evidence is clear that much work remains to be done to approach the positive goals of equity and sustainability that have been and today remain the central focus of Mexico’s water policy discourse.13

Conclusion and policy implications As we confront the certain challenges of the future – climate change, sectoral DQGUHJLRQDOFRQÀLFWVRYHUVKULQNLQJZDWHUVXSSOLHVLQFUHDVHGGHPDQGUHODWHGWR growth and development, and changing technologies such as biofuels and desalinization that are redirecting water supply or making available new sources – how can this array of fragile relationships among citizens, states, markets, and the environment itself be made to work, even to thrive, so that water policies especially in the developing world can be made more democratic and sustainable? Mexico’s water agenda links democracy and participation to a strange partner, the market and, frankly, these two coexist in an uneasy relationship that must constantly be mediated and negotiated. Each of these partners do some things very well, but each tends to overstep the boundaries of the other. Each has DWHQGHQF\WRDEVRUEDOOWKHR[\JHQLQWKHURRPDQGWROHDYHLQVXI¿FLHQWVSDFH for the other partner. The literature suggests that new relationships can lead to FUHDWLYH FRQWH[W VSHFL¿F VROXWLRQV ± IRU H[DPSOH SDLULQJ RI FRPPXQLW\ ZLWK markets (private-social participation model) (Lemos and Agrawal 2006). One of the pressing challenges ahead, then, is to sort out this relationship. Mexican SROLF\ PDNHUV QHHG WR DVN WKHPVHOYHV WKH IXQGDPHQWDO TXHVWLRQ ZKDW LV RXU ZDWHU SROLF\ UHDOO\ DERXW ± PDUNHW HI¿FLHQF\" 'HFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ DQG ORFDO SDUWLFLSDWLRQ" (TXLW\ DQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\" 5HVSHFWHG IRUPHU HQYLURQPHQW ministers, such as Julia Carabias and Victor Lichtinger, maintain that markets,

236 M. Wilder WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU DQG HI¿FLHQF\ JDLQV PXVW EH SDUW RI WKH VROXWLRQ WR PRYLQJ toward a more sustainable, secure water future. However, the experience-to-date of privatization in Mexico, especially in urban water services provision, does not substantiate such positive claims. Helen Ingram captures the challenge facing Mexico and other developing QDWLRQVZKHQVKHZULWHV The contested terrain of water requires not government or markets, but both; not public or private water enterprises, but both; not expertise or grass-roots knowledge, but both; not water for nature or people, but both; not centralization or decentralization, but both; not river basin or watershed institutions, but both (Ingram, Chapter 12, this volume) ,QWKHHQGZHUHWXUQWRWKHSROLWLFVRIZDWHU5HJDUGOHVVRIWKHSDUW\LQFKDUJH only a strong and accountable Mexican state that is committed to achieving not MXVWRQHHQGRIWKLVHTXDWLRQ±PDUNHWVDQGHI¿FLHQF\±EXWWKHRWKHUHQGDVZHOO – equity and sustainability – will be able to implement a sustained program of transition to achieve these desired ends. Mexico’s democratic transition is embodied within and being realized through its water policy transition, and the promises imagined in the water governance paradigm are incomplete fragments of what they had the potential to be. Are they even still under construction? Mexico’s citizens – the water drinkers, the farmers, the colonia dwellers, the LQGLJHQRXVWULEHVWKHKRXVHZLYHVWKHFKLOGUHQ±DUHVWLOOZDLWLQJWR¿QGRXW

Notes 1 Phrase suggested in Martínez (2007), Interview with prominent water expert, María Luísa Torregrosa. 2 For an extensive discussion of the developments that led to Mexico’s adoption of a new water management paradigm, see M. Wilder (2009). 3 Mexican law requires that regulations (reglamentaria) implementing new laws are to be adopted within 12 months of the passage of the original law. 5LYHUEDVLQFRXQFLOVDUHDSRWHQWLDOO\VLJQL¿FDQWLQQRYDWLRQWR0H[LFR¶VZDWHUPDQagement landscape; however, full discussion of them is outside the scope of this chapter due to space limitations. Mexico created a network of 25 major river basin councils (consejos de cuenca) to promote and develop integrated planning at the ZDWHUVKHG OHYHO 7KUHH RI WKHVH DUH ORFDWHG SULPDULO\ ZLWKLQ 6RQRUD WKH $OWDU5tR &RQFHSFLyQLQWKHQRUWKZHVWHUQSDUWRIWKHVWDWHWKH5tR
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institutional structure. Voting is limited to one elected representative per water use sector, angering agricultural producers in Sonora who use 85 percent of total water in the state. Other represented sectors (each with a single vote) include industry, ranchLQJK\GURHOHFWULFDQGXUEDQSXEOLFXVH*RYHUQPHQWDJHQF\RI¿FLDOVDQGDFDGHPLFV can participate in discussions but have no voting privileges (voz no voto). Important social groups are not included within the limited representative structure of the consejos, including, for example, tribal interests (e.g. the Yaqui indigenous pueblos of Sonora), urban residents or colonia dwellers. The consejos de cuenca typically operate with little transparency. For example, there are open meetings with published agendas, and meeting minutes are not publicly available. In the case of river basin councils, decentralized administration is very limited, since the law designates the director of the regional CONAGUA Organismo de Cuenca (regional headquarters of CONAGUA) as the president of the river basin council. Staff members within CONAGUA are charged with calling meetings, setting agendas, and inviting participants. The river basin councils have very little autonomy and lack jurisdiction to take major decisions, although they can make recommendations to CONAGUA. Finally, as detailed in the above section on participation on the river basin councils, equity and sustainability issues remain a challenge. These consejos de cuenca have limited representation and a heavy government presence (e.g. the governor and the director of CONAGUA). Many marginalized sectors of the population are not represented on the consejos, including indigenous tribes (like the Yaqui), neighborhood associations, or residents of poor colonias. There is no formal representation for the environment itself, although the law stipulates a seat for someone who represents it, and thus no way to advocate for environmental/ecological services themselves. The depth and complexity of current issues, or even crises such as the recent prolonged drought, often obscures the ability of the consejos to take on long-term sustainability planning. Some results of the Sonoran studies are discussed in other publications by M. Wilder, LQFOXGLQJ:LOGHU:LOGHUDQG:KLWHIRUGDQG:LOGHUDQG5RPHUR/DQNDR 2006. NAFTA became effective January 1, 1994. The original World Bank loan was for the period 1991 to 1994, and was subsequently H[WHQGHGWKURXJK-XQHRI3LQHGD%ODQFDUWH± 7KH%DQNORDQZDV GLUHFWHGWRZDUGWKUHHDUHDV 'HYHORSPHQWDQGWUDQVIHURIWHFKQRORJ\ &DSDFLW\ building; and 3) Communication and User participation. The World Bank study on Mexico’s transference program found that placing managePHQWLQWKHKDQGVRIEHQH¿FLDULHVKHOSVHVWDEOLVKUHKDELOLWDWLRQSULRULWLHVZKHQIXQGVDUH limited. Cost sharing for system improvement is negotiated between the state and water users, and users help set priorities for capital works installations (Easter et al. The municipalities or states whose privatization experiences were summarized in the VWXG\:LOGHUDQG5RPHUR/DQNDR DUH$JXDVFDOLHQWHV%DMD&DOLIRUQLD3XHEOD and Mexico D.F. Capitulo III, Articulo 9, Section XIX, p. 27, LAN, April 29, 2004 Ley 038 de Aguas de Estado, Articulo 76, 84–89. Other states that require municipal FRXQFLOV LQFOXGH -DOLVFR 0LFKRDFiQ 0H[LFR DQG 6DQ /XtV 3RWRVt EDVHG RQ VWDWH water commission websites). The municipal water utility, Aguas de Hermosillo, formed in 2001, established a 15-member advisory group (consejo consultivo) with representation from the water users’ union (2), university representatives (3), and the remainder from the business community, women’s association, and accounting college. Advisory council members are all volunteers and rely upon the water utility to provide information, set the agenda, and ask for input only on particular issues (Author interview with formal advisory council member, June 27, 2007). See, for example, ample references to sustainability, equity, participation and decentralization in the Plan Hídrico Nacional 2007–2012 (CONAGUA 2008).

238 M. Wilder

References Bennet, V. (1995) The Politics of Water: Urban Protest, Gender and Power in Monterrey, Mexico3LWWVEXUJK3$8QLYHUVLW\RI3LWWVEXUJK3UHVV Blackman, A. (2003) The Cutting Edge and the Nitty Gritty: Environmental Protection in Mexico 5HVRXUFHV IRU WKH )XWXUH 5HSRUW :DVKLQJWRQ '& 5HVRXUFHV IRU WKH Future. Blatter, J. and Ingram, H.M. (2001) 5HÀHFWLRQV RQ :DWHU 1HZ $SSURDFKHV WR 7UDQVERXQGDU\&RQÀLFWVDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ&DPEULGJH0$0,73UHVV %URZQLQJ$LNHQ$0RUHKRXVH%-'DYLV$:LOGHU09DUDG\5*RRGULFK' &DUWHU50RUHQR'DQG0F*RYHUQ(' &OLPDWHZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDQG SROLF\ LQ WKH 6DQ 3HGUR EDVLQ 5HVXOWV RI D VXUYH\ RI 0H[LFDQ VWDNHKROGHUV QHDU WKH U.S.-Mexico border, Climatic Change, ± ± Buras, N. ( 7KHZDWHUUHVRXUFHVRI0H[LFRWKHLUXWLOL]DWLRQDQGPDQDJHPHQWLQ L. 5DQGDOO HG The Changing Structure of Mexico: Political, Social, and Economic 3URVSHFWV$UPRQN1<0(6KDUSHSS± &DVWUR -( :DWHU 3RZHU DQG &LWL]HQVKLS 6RFLDO 6WUXJJOHV LQ WKH %DVLQ RI 0H[LFR1HZ
Promises under construction

239

:DWHU 7KH 5LVNV DQG %HQH¿WV RI *OREDOL]DWLRQ DQG 3ULYDWL]DWLRQ RI )UHVK :DWHU, 2DNODQG&$3DFL¿F,QVWLWXWH INEGI (1991) Censo Ejidal0H[LFR'),QVWLWXWR1DFLRQDOGH(VWDGtVWLFD\*HRJUDItD Ingram, H.M. (2008) Beyond Universal Remedies for Good Water Governance: A PolitLFDO DQG &RQWH[WXDO $SSURDFK SDSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH 5RVHQEHUJ )RUXP RQ ,QWHUQDtional Water Policy, Zaragoza, Spain, June 23–29, 2008. IPCC Working Group I (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. ConWULEXWLRQWRWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWRIWKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and +/0LOOHUHGV &DPEULGJH&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV /DUVRQ $0 DQG 5LERW -& 'HPRFUDWLF GHFHQWUDOLVDWLRQ WKURXJK D QDWXUDO resources lens, (XURSHDQ-RXUQDORI'HYHORSPHQW /HLFKHQNR 5 DQG 2¶%ULHQ ./ Environmental Change and Globalization: 'RXEOH([SRVXUHV2[IRUG2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Lemos, M.C. and Agrawal, A. (2006) Environmental governance, Annual Review of Environment and Natural Resources± Lemos, M.C. and Luna, A. (1999) BECC and public participation in the U.S.-Mexico ERUGHU/HVVRQVIURP$PERV1RJDOHV-RXUQDORI%RUGHUODQGV6WXGLHV ± /LYHUPDQ'0DQG0HULGHWK5 &OLPDWHDQGVRFLHW\LQWKH866RXWKZHVW7KH context for a regional assessment, Climate Research ± Magaña, V.O. and Conde, C. (2000) Climate and freshwater resources in Northern 0H[LFR6RQRUDDFDVHVWXG\Environmental monitoring and assessment± Martínez, J.M. (2007) Gestión del Agua en Mexico, Entrevista con María Luísa Torregrosa, Sonárida (QHUR-XQLR +HUPRVLOOR6RQRUD6HFUHWDULDGH(GXFDFLyQ\&XOWXUD Moreno, J.L. (2006) 3RU$EDMRGHO$JXD6REUHH[SORWDFLyQ\$JRWDPLHQWRGHO$FXtIHUR de la Costa de Hermosillo, 1945–2000+HUPRVLOOR(O&ROHJLRGH6RQRUD Nadal, A. (2000) 7KH(QYLURQPHQWDODQG6RFLDO,PSDFWVRI(FRQRPLF/LEHUDOL]DWLRQRQ Corn Production in Mexico2[IRUG2[IDP Palacios Velez, E. (2000) Breve evaluación del proceso de la transferencia de los distritos de riego en Mexico, in E. Palacios Velez and E. Espinosa de León (eds.) Procesos de Transferencia y GestiónMesa I, 0H[LFR')&RPLVLyQ1DFLRQDOGHO$JXD Palerm-Viqueira, J. (2005) Gobierno y administración de sistemas de riego, Región y Sociedad ± Passel, J.S. and Cohn, D’V. (2008) Trends in Unauthorized Immigrations: Undocumented ,QÀRZ1RZ7UDLOV/HJDO,QÀRZ:DVKLQJWRQ'&3HZ+LVSDQLF&HQWHURQOLQHDYDLODEOHDWKWWSSHZKLVSDQLFRUJ¿OHVUHSRUWVSGI>DFFHVVHG'HFHPEHU@ 3LQHGD31 /DSROÕWLFDXUEDQDGHDJXDSRWDEOHHQ0H[LFR'HOFHQWUDOLVPR\ORV VXEVLGLRVDODPXQLFLSDOL]DFLRQODDXWRVX¿FLHQFLD\ODSULYDWL]DFtRQRegion y Sociedad, ± Pineda Blancarte, V.M. (2000) Crédito externo en apoyo a transferencia de los distritos de riego en Mexico, in E. Palacios Velez and E. Espinosa de León, (eds.), Procesos de Transferencia y GestiónMesa I, 0H[LFR')&RPLVLyQ1DFLRQDOGHO$JXD Pineda Pablos, N. (ed.) (2006) /D%~VTXHGDGHOD7DULID-XVWD(O&REURGHORV6HUYLFLRV de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado en Mexico+HUPRVLOOR(O&ROHJLRGH6RQRUD Pineda Pablos, N., Browning-Aiken, A., and Wilder, M. (2007) Equilibrio de Bajo Nivel y Manejo Urbano del Agua en Cananea, Sonora, Frontera Norte ± 5D\$-*DU¿Q*0:LOGHU09iVTXH]/HyQ0/HQDUW0DQG&RPULH$& $SSOLFDWLRQV RI PRQVRRQ UHVHDUFK 2SSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQIRUP GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ and reduce regional vulnerability, -RXUQDORI&OLPDWH ±

240 M. Wilder 6DQGIRUG 5 Water, Weather and the Mountain West &DOJDU\ $OEHUWD 5RFN\ Mountain Books. Tellez, L. (ed.) (1993) 1XHYD /HJLVODFLyQ GH 7LHUUDV %RVTXHV \ $JXDV 0H[LFR ') Fondo de Cultura Economica. 7KREDQL 0 )RUPDO ZDWHU PDUNHWV :K\ ZKHQ DQG KRZ WR LQWURGXFH WUDGDEOH water rights, The World Bank Observer ± UN (United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development) (1987) Our Common Future 2[IRUG 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV SXEOLVKHG DV $QQH[ WR *HQHUDO $VVHPEO\GRFXPHQW$'HYHORSPHQWDQG,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ(QYLURQment, August 2, 1987. 9DUDG\5*0HHKDQ.5RGGD-'HOOLQJHU(0DQG,OHV6KLK0 6WUHQJWKening global water initiatives, Environment ± :KLWHIRUG6DQG%HUQDO) &DPSHVLQRVZDWHUDQGWKHVWDWH'LIIHUHQWYLHZVRI /D7UDQVIHUHQFLDLQ/5DQGDOOHG Reforming Mexico’s Agrarian Reform, Armonk, 1<0(6KDUSH,QF :KLWHIRUG6DQG0HOYLOOH5 Protecting a Sacred Gift: Water and Social Change in Mexico/D-ROOD&$&HQWHUIRU860H[LFDQ6WXGLHV8QLYHUVLW\RI&DOLIRUQLD :LOGHU0 :DWHUJRYHUQDQFHLQ0H[LFRSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFDSHUWXUHVDQGD shifting state-citizen relationship, Ecology and Society $UWLFOHRQOLQHDYDLODEOHDWZZZHFRORJ\DQGVRFLHW\RUJYROLVVDUW Wilder, M. (2009) Political and economic apertures and the shifting state-citizen relationVKLS5HIRUPLQJ0H[LFR¶VQDWLRQDOZDWHUSROLF\LQ'+XLWHPDDQG60HLMHULQNHGV :DWHU3ROLF\(QWUHSUHQHXUV$5HVHDUFK&RPSDQLRQWR:DWHU7UDQVLWLRQVDURXQGWKH Globe&KHOWHQKDP(GZDUG(OJDU3UHVV Wilder, M. (2008) Equity and water in Mexico’s changing institutional landscape, in J. :KLWHOH\+0,QJUDPDQG53HUU\HGV :DWHU3ODFHDQG(TXLW\&DPEULGJH0$ Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press. Wilder, M. (2002) In Name Only: Water Policy, the State, and Ejidatario Producers in Northern Mexico3K'GLVVHUWDWLRQ'HSDUWPHQWRI*HRJUDSK\DQG5HJLRQDO'HYHORSment, University of Arizona. :LOGHU 0 DQG 5RPHUR /DQNDR 3 3DUDGR[HV RI GHFHQWUDOL]DWLRQ 1HROLEHUDO reforms and water institutions in Mexico, :RUOG'HYHORSPHQW ± :LOGHU0DQG:KLWHIRUG6 )ORZLQJXSKLOOWRZDUGPRQH\*URXQGZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDQGHMLGDOSURGXFHUVLQ0H[LFR¶VIUHHWUDGHHQYLURQPHQWLQ/5DQGDOOHG &KDQJLQJ6WUXFWXUHRI0H[LFR3ROLWLFDO6RFLDODQG(FRQRPLF3URVSHFWV1HZ
12 Beyond universal remedies for good water governance A political and contextual approach Helen Ingram1

Introduction The water resources research and practice community excels at the development RI LQQRYDWLYH DQG YDULHG LGHDV DQG EOXHSULQWV WR UHSODFH H[LVWLQJ ÀDZHG ZDWHU management institutions. History is littered with formulas that were embraced by both scholars and practitioners, but either failed to take hold, or, when implemented, failed to live up to their promise. One after another, multi-objective planning, principles and standards, centralization, coordinated river basin planning and management, watershed management, devolution and decentralization, markets, privatization, and many other formulas have had some period of years in the sun and then faded. Often these ideas corrected errors and made things better in some places, but proved to be no panacea for the ills of water governDQFH LQ PDQ\ RWKHU FRQWH[WV 7RGD\ KRSHV DUH ¿[HG XSRQ ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU Resources Management and Adaptive Management, which envision more colODERUDWLYH JRYHUQDQFH DQG D PRUH ÀH[LEOH DQG HQJDJHG UROH IRU VFLHQFH , ZLOO argue in this chapter that there is much old wine in these new bottles. But, beyond suggesting that there is much to be learned from past experience, the larger point is that the realities of water governance unfold on the ground (or in this case on the water), and that not only must remedies be designed for the context, they also actually must be implementable and implemented. The current intellectual ferment among water scholars and practitioners is more exciting than anytime in the last 50 years, yet the reality of water-related SUREOHPVLVPRUHDQGPRUHGDXQWLQJZLWKHDFKSDVVLQJ\HDU:KLOHWKHOLWHUDWXUH presents new notions of green, blue, and virtual water, everyday water governance falls further and further behind mounting problems. For instance, the reallocation of water has moving agricultural water from food to biofuels with lightening speed, increasing food prices and worsening worldwide food shortages. Energy development is requiring increasing quantities of increasingly scarce water, and non-conventional energy development, such as biofuels and tar VDQGV H[SORLWDWLRQ LV ZDWHU LQWHQVLYH :RUOGZLGH WKLUVW\ FLWLHV DUH VWHDGLO\ HURGLQJ DJULFXOWXUH¶V JULS RQ ZDWHU ULJKWV DJJUDYDWLQJ IRRG VFDUFLW\ :DWHU quality problems continue to plague even developed countries after nearly halfa-century-long clean up campaign. Contemporary experience suggests that

242 H. Ingram increasing human pressures upon water resources will harm the natural environment. Environmental damage, in turn, diminishes the environmental services upon which all life depends. Evaluating the state of common pool resources, Elinor Ostrom (personal communication) concludes that much of the news is negative. 7KLVFKDSWHUZLOO¿UVWFRQVLGHUZKDWOHVVRQVDERXWZDWHUJRYHUQDQFHFDQEH learned from previous and contemporary experiments with water reforms. The record on most reforms is decidedly mixed. Among the lessons are that a substantial gap exists between promise and practice. Reforms stall out at the critical stages of marshalling support for adoption and implementation, which by necessity are political processes. The third section suggests that the art of politics must come back into the discussion of water if change is to occur. Among the critical shortcomings in contemporary water politics are the failures to frame issues in ways to attract public interest, to engage a water ethic and to address deep-seated inequities, and to recruit and to inspire leaders. The fourth section introduces the notion of a contextual approach to water management that takes into account the history, culture, and sense of place. Rather than depending upon the adoption of one or another of the universal remedies, this approach suggests that mixed stratHJLHV WKDW DSSHDO WR PXOWLSOH YDOXHV DQG ¿W LQWR ORFDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV DUH PRUH appropriate than universal remedies.

Lessons from experience with institutional reforms Basin-wide planning and management 7KH ÀDJVKLS RI ULYHU EDVLQ SODQQLQJ DQG PDQDJHPHQW DW OHDVW LQ WKH 8QLWHG States, was the Tennessee Valley Authority, founded more than half a century DJR 7KH :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV 3ODQQLQJ $FW LQVSLUHG WKH FUHDWLRQ RI ULYHU EDVLQFRPPLVVLRQVDFURVVWKHHDVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHVDOORIZKLFKZHUHVFXWWOHG VRPH\HDUVODWHUGXULQJWKH5HDJDQ$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ,QWKHODVWGHFDGHQHZ initiatives have sprung up in the Florida Everglades, the California Bay/Delta, WKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\DQGVRPHRWKHUORFDWLRQV0XFKRIWKLVPRUHUHFHQWÀRZering is inspired by the accomplishments in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin, more recently seriously challenged by long drought (see Craik and Cleaver, Chapter 3, this volume). A close look at more recently established basin instituWLRQVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVVXJJHVWVPRVWDUHIDOWHULQJ'R\OHDQG'UHZ ³7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDVEHHQDOHDGLQJH[SRUWHURIULYHUEDVLQSODQQLQJDURXQG WKH ZRUOG EXW KDV EHHQ XQDEOH WR VXVWDLQ WKRVH SURJUDPV DW KRPH´ :HVFRDW 2000: 150). The geographic boundaries of river basin institutions encompass entire drainage areas, and include upstream and downstream problems so that systematic effects can be considered in one forum. Evidence suggests, however, that despite their conceptual appeal, the longstanding problems with such institutions have not been overcome. Geographically based institutions that do not match political boundaries have problems in establishing stable funding streams, since joint

Beyond universal remedies 243 IXQGLQJ DOZD\V SUHVHQWV GLI¿FXOWLHV RI FROODERUDWLRQ 3ROLWLFDO OHDGHUV ZKRVH constituencies have little relationship to the physically determined river basin boundaries, often feel estranged from basin institutions that are not directly accountable to them. Similarly, established agencies are threatened by new institutions with whom they are supposed to collaborate, but who may compete with WKHPIRUSROLWLFDODQG¿QDQFLDOVXSSRUW *RDOGHÀDWLRQVHHPVWRSODJXHPDQ\RIWKHPRVWUHFHQWEDVLQZLGHLQVWLWXtions. They gain initial support through promises to improve a wide variety of water-based problems: recovering habitat and endangered species, better water quality, more secure water supply, more open and accessible decision making, DQG PRUH 2QFH XS DQG UXQQLQJ VXFK LQVWLWXWLRQV ¿QG WKHPVHOYHV XQDEOH WR provide evidence of improvement in problems that were many decades in the making and governed by many forces outside river basin institutions’ control. Further, a great deal of effort is expended in the unwieldy business of FRRUGLQDWLRQ DQG FROODERUDWLRQ DPRQJ IDUÀXQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV ZKRVH PDLQ FRQcerns and loyalties are elsewhere. Their only defense in battles over resources, is to showcase localized examples of progress that is sometimes both limited and ephemeral, and hardly seem to justify the typically large overall expenditures and organizational energies. The editors of a special issue of lessons from the CALFED Bay-Delta program conclude that there are inherent contradiction, limitations, and “dark sides,” and that such geographically based, collaborative institutions may be “ill-suited to resolve distributive dilemmas that are at the KHDUW RI PDQ\ ZDWHUDQG RWKHUHQYLURQPHQWDO FRQÀLFWV´ .DOOLV et al. 2009: 631). Watershed governance /LNHULYHUEDVLQLQVWLWXWLRQVZDWHUVKHGDSSURDFKHVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFDQWUDFH their roots back over half a century to the New Deal, when the Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service took on upstream problems and worked PDLQO\ ZLWK IDUPHUV :KLOH ³ZDWHUVKHG´ LV D FDWFKDOO WHUP IRU VXUIDFH ZDWHU V\VWHPVLQPDQ\FRXQWULHVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZDWHUVKHGSURWHFWLRQLVFORVHO\ connected with upland headwaters. The principle purpose of early watershed protection efforts was erosion control, and they encouraged grass-roots farmer SDUWLFLSDWLRQ7KHZDWHUVKHGJRYHUQDQFHLQVWLWXWLRQVWKDWKDYHÀRZHUHGVLQFHWKH HDUO\VLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVKDYHVLPLODUJHRJUDSK\EXWYHU\GLIIHUHQWFRQstituencies and purposes. They are much more environmentally conscious and oriented toward maintaining biological diversity, riparian restoration, and control of non-point-source pollution. Most are dedicated to increasing broad stakeholder participation in decisions and activities. Further, they generally espouse the partnership of government and non-government actors. Thousands of waterVKHG LQVWLWXWLRQV H[LVW LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV WRGD\ DQG WKH\ GLVSOD\ HQRUPRXV diversity of orientation, purpose, extent of public involvement, and degree of governmental agency support. The watershed form has been diffused around the world with the support of most water resources scholars and practitioners. From

244 H. Ingram the perspective of extent of adoption and bottom-up participation, watershed governance arrangements are unquestionably successful. Measured in other terms, the verdict is less certain. 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ LV RQO\ ZHDNO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SRVLWLYH UHVXOWV IRU ZDWHU management on some measures. Research looking at 46 participatory irrigation management programs that involved farmers on six continents found that costs to farmers rose in 21 cases, improvements in the timeliness of water delivery in 34 cases, equity of water delivery in 32 cases, quality of system maintenance in 32 cases, collection of charges in 30, amount of area irrigated in 29, yields in 23, and farm income in 24 cases (Meinzen-Dick 2007: 15202). Another broader test of watershed governance is whether it leads to better societal outcomes, for the moment begging the question of better “for whom?” A meta-analysis of 35 cases of participatory governance institutions in North $PHULFDDQG(XURSHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUHFRUGLVPL[HG)ULWVFKDQG1HZLJ Only in one-third of all cases did new perspectives engaged, information generated, or social learning processes initiated lead to better consideration of envirRQPHQWDO SHUVSHFWLYHV LQ WKH ¿QDO DJUHHPHQW $ VLPLODU ODUJH VWXG\ RI 86 watershed management by Sabatier et al. ± ¿QGV³FROODERUDWLYH institutions are expensive to implement and maintain and often are extremely time-consuming, requiring as long as four years to achieve effectiveness.” These analysts see watershed collaboration as a kind of last resort when more straightforward governance is impossible: “we recommend that the collaborative approach to watershed management be used as a method. . .only when there are high stakes, high social distrust, high governmental distrust and high knowledge uncertainty.” Measured by whether watershed institutions lead to more implementable policies and practices, watershed institutions fare better. The logic is that legitimate SURFHVVHV RI SDUWLFLSDWRU\ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ KHOSV WR UHVROYH FRQÀLFWV LQFUHDVHV WUXVWDPRQJSDUWLFLSDQWVEXLOGVVRFLDOFDSLWDODQGOHDGVWRFRQVHQVXV3HUFHLYHG fairness of processes correlates very highly with acceptance in the study of collaborative governance of North America and Europe (Fritsch and Newig 6XFK¿QGLQJVDUHFRUURERUDWHGE\DVWXG\RIWKH0XUUD\'DUOLQJZKHUH salinity management succeeded through trust-building, community ownership of planning institutions, and “program negotiators,” who work as middlemen between communities in watersheds and the basin process (Marshall 2005). There is enormous variation among cases, however, and analysts stress the importance of context. 3UREOHPVWKDWSODJXHGZDWHUVKHGJRYHUQDQFHIURPWKHLULQWURGXFWLRQGHFDGHV ago continue. Gaps exist between watersheds, leaving some problems unatWHQGHG :DWHUVKHGV DUH KLJKO\ YXOQHUDEOH WR SUREOHPV LPSLQJLQJ IURP RXWVLGH their boundaries, and without some overarching umbrella institutions at river basins or higher levels, clashes and gaps occur. Further, success of watersheds is KLJKO\ GHSHQGHQW XSRQ HQRXJK UHVRXUFHV VXI¿FLHQW VFLHQWL¿F DQG WHFKQLFDO know-how and leadership, all coming together, a happy convergence that turns out to be fairly uncommon.

Beyond universal remedies 245 Markets and privatization For nearly two decades, the world banking community and many water professionals have argued that the answers to mounting water problems are to be found LQ PDUNHW WUDQVIHUV IURP DJULFXOWXUH WR PRUH HFRQRPLFDOO\ SUR¿WDEOH XVHV involving the private sector in water delivery, and instituting user-pays, full-cost UHFRYHU\SULQFLSOHV8QOHVVWKHSULFHRIZDWHUWRXVHUVUHÀHFWVLWVWUXHYDOXHLWLV likely that water will be wasted. Given the high economic and environmental costs associated with the development of new water supplies, moving water to PRUH EHQH¿FLDO XVHV WKURXJK PDUNHWV PDNHV VHQVH DQG KDV ZRUNHG ZHOO LQ D YDULHW\RIFRQWH[WV:DWHUPDUNHWVKDYHWDNHQPDQ\IRUPVIURPLQIRUPDOUXUDO ZDWHUVDOHVLQFRXQWULHVOLNH1HSDODQG,QGLDWRKLJKO\RUJDQL]HGPDUNHWDUUDQJHPHQWVLQSODFHVOLNHWKH0XUUD\'DUOLQJV\VWHPLQ$XVWUDOLD+RZHDQG,QJUDP ,Q PDQ\ SODFHV PDUNHWV SHUIRUP ZHOO %XW H[SHULHQFH KDV VKRZQ WKDW markets cannot make up for failures of governments and that well-operating markets depend upon a strong regulatory framework and functioning oversight %DXHU :KLOHPDUNHWVKDYHFHUWDLQO\EHHQHQJDJHGLQZDWHUWUDQVIHUVRXW of agriculture, such water transfers are often negotiated arrangements heavily involving government agencies as buyers, facilitators, and regulators (some also question if they’re “true” markets, since there is often only a single buyer and seller, and other “bidders” are left out). +DUQHVVLQJ WKH ¿QDQFLDO DQG PDQDJHPHQW FDSDFLW\ RI SULYDWH HQWHUSULVH LV VXSSRVHG WR KHOS UHDFK WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV¶ 0LOOHQQLXP 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOV (MDG) to serve the roughly one billion people who lack access to drinking water, and double that number for people who lack sanitation services. The costs of reaching MDG are estimated to be somewhere between 25 and 100 billion dollars a year, much of which would need to come from new, private investors. Yet, private investments remain quite small, less than 25 percent of total investment, according to analysts, will not thrive unless prevailing political conditions FKDQJH6FKRXWHQDQG6FKZDUW] ,QDQXPEHURIFRXQWULHVVXFKDV%ROLYLD WKH3KLOLSSLQHVDQG$UJHQWLQDZKHUHZDWHUDQGVDQLWDWLRQKDYHEHHQSULYDWL]HG grass-roots actors were able to overturn these multi-million-dollar privatization deals by lobbying government to cancel contracts or pressuring the companies themselves. Globalization is an obviously complicating factor, since many LQWHUQDWLRQDO ZDWHU FRPSDQLHV DUH PXOWLQDWLRQDO HJ )UHQFK$PHULFDQ ¿UPV RSHUDWLQJXQGHUIHZFRQVWUDLQWVDQGZLWKWKHEOHVVLQJRILQWHUQDWLRQDO¿QDQFLDO institutions. Some private water corporations are demanding renegotiated contracts, guarantees, and currency exchange insurance from governments and LQWHUQDWLRQDO¿QDQFLDOLQVWLWXWLRQVSULRUWRLQYHVWPHQW :KLOH SROLWLFDO LQWHUHVWV KRRNHG RQ ZDWHU VXEVLGLHV DUH RIWHQ EODPHG IRU resistance to full-cost-recovery pricing imposed by privatized water utilities, WKHUH DUH PRUH SURIRXQG UHDVRQV IRU SXEOLF RSSRVLWLRQ :DWHU LV WLHG XS ZLWK VSHFL¿F SODFHEDVHG HFRORJLHV LQYROYLQJ FRPPXQLW\ FXOWXUH DQG LGHQWLW\ DQG FDQEHDV\PEROIRUVHFXULW\VHOIGHWHUPLQDWLRQDQGSUHIHUUHGOLIHVW\OHV3ULYDWH enterprise and public-private partnerships cannot by themselves provide the open

246 H. Ingram public forums in which such value-based decisions can be adequately discussed. Further, water and poverty are closely associated and, even in rich countries like WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKHUHH[LVWVSRFNHWVRISRRUSHRSOHZLWKRXWDGHTXDWHVHUYLFH :HVFRDWet al. 8VHUSD\SULQFLSOHVPD\PHDQZDWHUUDWHVWKDWWKHSRRUHVW of the poor cannot afford. Life-line rates can help, but categorizing some portion of the population as “needy” risks stigmatizing those singled out for their inability to pay full costs of water. Obtaining more water supplies for expanded VHUYLFH LQ JURZLQJ XUEDQ DUHDV ZRUOGZLGH LV HQRUPRXVO\ GLI¿FXOW DQG FRQWHQtious, and private urban water utilities are likely to face great opposition from UXUDO DQG IDUPLQJ DUHDV XQZLOOLQJ WR VDFUL¿FH ZDWHU WR IXHO JURZWK DQG XUEDQ sprawl, and from environmentalists concerned with the negative ecological FRQVHTXHQFHVRIWUDQVIHUV,QJUDP ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV 0DQDJHPHQW DQG $GDSWLYH 0DQDJHPHQW ,QWHJUDWHG:DWHU5HVRXUFHV0DQDJHPHQW,:50 KDVDWWDLQHGSUDFWLFDOO\WKHVWDWXV RIOLQJXDIUDQFDDPRQJZDWHUUHVRXUFHVVFKRODUVDQGSUDFWLWLRQHUV,:50ZDV endorsed by the 2000 Summit on Sustainability in Johannesburg and by the 7KLUG:RUOG:DWHU)RUXPLQ,WLVDSUHUHTXLVLWHIRUFRPSOLDQFHZLWKWKH (XURSHDQ8QLRQ¶V:DWHU)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHRIDQGJXLGHVWKH(XURSHDQ 8QLRQ:DWHU,QLWLDWLYH)LVFKKHQGOHU ,WRIWHQFRPSUHKHQGVRQHRUDQRWKHU RI WKH SUHYLRXVO\ GLVFXVVHG UHIRUPV ,W LV D FRQFHSWXDO DSSURDFK WKDW VWUHVVHV several interrelated themes: recognition of the full range of social and ecological uses of water; integrative planning and practices across the full range of water users, including in-stream uses; and coordinating water management at multiple VFDOHVDVZHOODVÀH[LEOHDOORFDWLRQRIZDWHUHQWLWOHPHQWV,QWKHZRUGVRI.HQ Conca: ,:50KDVEHFRPHWKHGLVFXUVLYHIUDPHZRUNRILQWHUQDWLRQDOZDWHUSROLF\± the reference point to which all other arguments end up appealing. Much OLNHWKHWKRURXJKO\SLFNHGRYHUFRQFHSWRIVXVWDLQDELOLW\,:50FRPELQHV intuitive reasonableness, an appeal to technical authority, and an allHQFRPSDVVLQJ FKDUDFWHU RI VXFK JUHDW ÀH[LELOLW\ WKDW LW DSSURDFKHV vagueness &RQFD± :LWKRXWTXHVWLRQ,:50KDVIRVWHUHGLQWHOOHFWXDOIHUPHQWDQGFUHDWHGRSSRUtunities for interdisciplinary interaction and research not previously experienced. To an unprecedented degree, it has involved the skills of a wide range of academics, from anthropologists who deeply analyze the historical connection between water, people, and place to ecologists who have introduced notions of UHVLOLHQFH,WKDVJDWKHUHGLQWRRQHQHWZRUNQRWRQO\PXOWLSOHGLVFLSOLQHVEXWDOVR LQWHUQDWLRQDODQGQDWLRQDOZDWHUVFKRODUVZLWKSHRSOHLQWHUHVWHGLQYHU\VSHFL¿F ZDWHUVKHGV 7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ $GDSWLYH DQG ,QWHJUDWLYH :DWHU Management in November 2007, in Basel Switzerland, showcased the wide variety of research being conducted, and at least one presentation was probing and somewhat critical (Fischhendler and Feitelson 2007).

Beyond universal remedies 247 $GDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQWZKLOHDVHSDUDWHLGHDLVXVXDOO\SDLUHGZLWK,:50LQ contemporary water discourse. Adaptive management is learning by doing, and PHDQV PDQDJLQJ VR WKDW GHFLVLRQV DUH PDGH DQG PRGL¿HG DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKDW information is known, including knowledge of the effects of previous actions (Doremas 2001). Foundational to adaptive management is the claim that continued science experiments are critical to natural resources management, and that policies should be designed for continued opportunities for learning (Hollings /HH 7KH UROH RI VFLHQFH LQ DGDSWLYH PDQDJHPHQW EHFRPHV PXFK more intimately involved with day to day, or on the ground, decision making than previously. The uncertainties of physical and biological systems are acknowledged, as well as the needs for managers to make decisions in situations RI XQFHUWDLQW\ 6FLHQWL¿F UHVHDUFK DJHQGDV DUH WLHG PRUH FORVHO\ WR GHFLVLRQ makers’ needs, and scientists even take on roles of advisers to watershed councils. Adaptive management embraces social learning as a valuable approach in implementing water reform (Blackmore et al. 2007). Despite the high hopes and expectations of the academic and professional ZDWHUFRPPXQLW\WR,:50DQGDGDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQWWKHDFWXDOSURVSHFWVIRU GHOLYHULQJSXUSRUWHGEHQH¿WVDUHQREHWWHUWKDQIDLU,:50DQGDGDSWLYHPDQagement have great appeal to specialists, but actually acting on these ideas SUHVHQWVSROLWLFDOLQVWLWXWLRQDODQGHTXLW\SUREOHPV3DUWRIWKHGLI¿FXOW\LVLQWKH VFDOHDQGVFRSHRI,:50DQGDGDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQWFKDQJHVHQYLVLRQHG,IHDFK RIWKHFRPSRQHQWVRI,:50KDVGLVSOD\HGVKRUWFRPLQJVLQWKHSDVWWKHULVNRI IDLOXUH LV FRPSRXQGHG ZKHQ WKH\ DUH FRPELQHG ,Q DWWHPSWLQJ WR UHVROYH VR many different problems simultaneously, the collective demands upon human, RUJDQL]DWLRQDODQG¿QDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVDUHRYHUZKHOPLQJ)LVFKKHQGOHUDQG)HLWHOVRQ 0RUHRYHUGHVSLWHWKHEURDGVFRSHRI,:50WKHUHFRQFLOLDWLRQRI land uses to water resources goals and objectives seldom occurs. Most importDQWO\,:50DQGDGDSWLYHPDQDJHPHQWDUHGLVFRQQHFWHGIURPWKHSROLWLFVDQG implementation processes and analysis that can initiate real change. 7KHUHDOGLI¿FXOWLHVRILPSOHPHQWDWLRQDUHJUHDWO\XQGHUHVWLPDWHG6XEVWDQWLDO changes in water entitlements, bureaucratic cultures and missions, and human behavior are required (Guruswamy and Tarlock 2005; Bloomquist and Schlager ,QLWLDWLYHV DUH EHJXQ ZLWK D JUHDW IDQIDUH LQYROYH ODUJH VXPV RI PRQH\ DQGVLJQL¿FDQWVFLHQWL¿FH[SHUWLVH
H. Ingram past climate is a poor prediction of the future; wetlands that purify water are being degraded and destroyed; safe drinking water is increasingly unavailable, even in some parts of developed countries; coastal areas are vulnerable to sea level rise, risk of extreme weather events that threaten lives and agricultural productivity; and all recipes for energy production require the ingredient of ZDWHU :DWHU UHVRXUFHV LQKHUHQWO\ LQYROYH YDOXH FRQÀLFWV EHFDXVH ZDWHU KDV YHU\ GLIIHUHQW PHDQLQJV WR GLIIHUHQW SHRSOH LQ GLIIHUHQW FRQWH[WV :KLOH XQGHU certain circumstances, water is viewed as a product of engineering systems, in others it is viewed as an economic good that should be reallocated through markets. Some see water as a property right, while others see it as a common JRRGDQGDKXPDQULJKW%ODWWHUDQG,QJUDP 0RUHRYHUZDWHUUHVRXUFHV and political power are inextricably connected, and there are winners and losers LQ PRVW ZDWHU GHFLVLRQV 3ROLWLFDOO\ SRZHUIXO LQWHUHVWV KDYH DOZD\V EHQH¿WHG from privileged access to water resources decision making, and they are XQOLNHO\ WR VWHS DVLGH ZLWKRXW FRQÀLFW 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ LV QR SDQDFHD IRU ZDWHU FRQÀLFWVVLQFHGHFLVLRQUXOHVDVWRZKRSDUWLFLSDWHVDQGE\ZKDWNLQGVRIUXOHV decisions are made, are also deeply political (Bloomquist and Schlager 2005). Moreover, open and transparent forums do not make up for power differentials DPRQJSDUWLFLSDQWVWKHVLJQL¿FDQWUHVRXUFHVNLOODQGFXOWXUDOEDUULHUVWRSDUticipation of some disadvantaged populations. The problem with all of the reforms critiqued above is not so much what they propose, either separately or in combination, but what they leave out. Absent from the discussion of contemporary reforms are discussions of ways to move from ideas and concepts to actions. How can issues be framed so as to engage the imagination and public support necessary to cause change? How can social movements be mobilized to place water issues higher on the public agenda of things that need to be addressed? Can networks and understanding bridge differences in interests, perspectives, missions, and standard procedures? How can leadership be attracted to take up water issues that have long been the province of experts? How can water agencies bound by conservative bureaucratic cultures be encouraged to take risks by adopting new ideas and approaches?

Bringing the art of politics back in Any meaningful change in water management is likely to be accompanied by a JRRGGHDORIUHVLVWDQFHDQGVWUDWHJLFPDQHXYHULQJ,WLVIDUHDVLHUWRFRQWLQXHWR do things in the same ways than to make fundamental changes, and policy stability characterizes most policy domains, especially water. As Huitema and Meijerink (2007) argue about water “transitions,” real change requires a number RIWKLQJVWRFRPHWRJHWKHUDWRQFH,GHDVQHHGWREHQRWRQO\DUWLFXODWHGEXWDOVR inserted into the political process. There must be a changed policy image or new framing of what is at stake around which mobilization can occur. A change agent is important, and they can be variously described as policy entrepreneurs, boundary workers, policy advocates, and visionary leaders.

Beyond universal remedies 249 Capturing the agenda The contemporary language of water resources reform tends to be rather bloodOHVVDQGSROLWLFDOO\WRQHGHDI,QRUGHUIRUUHDOFKDQJHWRFRPHDERXWLQWKHZD\ societies consider and manage water, the issue of water must be placed higher on the public agenda. A half century ago, an astute political scientist noted that FULVLVVXFKDVÀRRGVDQGGURXJKWVFUHDWHGFRQVHQWLQZDWHUSROLWLFV+DUW During the era in which Hart wrote, water agencies had backlogs of construction projects sitting on the shelves that could be brought forward as “solutions” when WKHWLPLQJZDVULJKW:KLOHSUHVHQWGD\GLVDVWHUVDUHHYHU\ELWDVVHYHUHZDWHU professionals seem not to be able to translate public concern into commitments to act to protect water resources. Rather than capitalizing upon hot topics like FOLPDWHFKDQJHZLOG¿UHVGURXJKWDQGIRRGVHFXULW\ZKHUHZDWHULVFORVHWRWKH heart of each matter, connections are not made and such opportunities are lost. 3XEOLFDWWHQWLRQVHHPVWREHPRUHIHDUHGWKDQVRXJKWE\PDQ\ZDWHUSURIHVVLRQals in agencies and utilities who think that water is inevitably viewed by the public as a service, the interruption of which will only bring approbation and blame upon providers. As a consequence, too often the public and political decision makers are assured that, due to the kinds of reforms discussed in the ¿UVW SDUWRI WKLV FKDSWHU FULVHV FDQ EH DYRLGHG ,W ZRXOG EH DFFXUDWH DQG PRUH politically effective to indicate that very real and painful changes in human behavior and expectations are required if water resources are to be protected. Researchers and practitioners in climate change have been relatively more effective than their counterparts in water resources in conveying the seriousness of the problem and the closeness of the relationship between human choices and WKHLQFUHDVHVLQJUHHQKRXVHJDVVHV:KDWHYHUWKHWHFKQLFDOÀDZVWKHQRWLRQRI “carbon footprints” and the urgency of making them smaller catch the public LPDJLQDWLRQ8QIRUWXQDWHO\FOLPDWHGLVFRXUVHKDVIDYRUHGPLWLJDWLRQRYHUDGDStation, shortchanging the necessary actions in a variety of sectors, including ZDWHU WR UHGXFH YXOQHUDELOLW\ WR FOLPDWH ULVN 3LHONH et al. 2007). More effort needs to be put into linking water problems and climate, and the development of intuitively logical and understandable signals of the extent to which human actions are worsening the state of the planet’s waters. Such yardsticks promote individual behavioral change, as well as providing a means to mobilize against damaging new energy, agriculture, and land-use technologies and facilities. %HFDXVH ZDWHU ÀRZV WKURXJK QHDUO\ HYHU\WKLQJ LW FDQ SURYLGH D YHU\ DFFXUDWH barometer of unsustainable practice. :DWHUWRXFKHVWKHHPRWLRQVDQGHYRNHVV\PSDWKHWLFUHVSRQVHVIDUPRUHHDVLO\ that does carbon, methane, and other greenhouse gasses, and yet water fails to JHW WKH OHYHO RI DWWHQWLRQ QHFHVVDU\ IRU LQQRYDWLYH FKDQJH 7KH ¿HOG RI ZDWHU resources needs to add to interdisciplinary skills the talents and insights of the humanities and arts, which have the ability to communicate effectively about culture and values, and to motivate commitment. For instance, photographs of FUXPEOLQJ LFH ÀRZV DQG VWUDQGHG SRODU EHDUV KDYH GRQH PRUH WR UDLVH FRQFHUQ DERXW JOREDO ZDUPLQJ WKDQ WKH HQGOHVV GLVFXVVLRQV RI WKH GHVLJQ RI WKH .\RWR

250 H. Ingram protocol. Consider what photographers like Ansel Adams have done for the 8QLWHG6WDWHV¶V\VWHPRIQDWLRQDOSDUNVDQGZKDWVXFKDQDUWLVWLFJLDQWPLJKWGR should he/she focus on global water problems. Engaging water equity “Community” and “sense of place” mobilization of public interest and support is FULWLFDOWRPHDQLQJIXOFKDQJHLQZDWHUUHVRXUFHVSROLF\DQGSUDFWLFH3HRSOHZLWK ZLGHO\GLIIHUHQWLQWHUHVWVLQIDUÀXQJSODFHVDUHUHVSRQGLQJVLPLODUO\WRIHHOLQJV of risk and insecurity over their separation from impenetrable and unaccountable water resource decisions that appear to be made elsewhere, such as among experts, through the global marketplace, or through processes of climate change. :KLOHVRPHREVHUYHUVKDYHDVVRFLDWHGWKHVHYDOXHEDVHGVRFLDOPRYHPHQWVZLWK basic human rights to water and the millennium poverty reduction goals (Conca 2006), the appeal is much more general, and is better captured by the notions of water for equity, places, and communities. Collective identities are created, H[SUHVVHGVXVWDLQHGDQGPRGL¿HGE\SURFHVVHVLQFOXGLQJWKHIUDPLQJRILVVXHV and the marshalling of symbols. One common frame or narrative portrays water that naturally and justly belongs to particular places somehow becoming disemEHGGHG DQG ORVW 7KH ORVV LV DPSOL¿HG E\ D VHQVH RI GLVHQIUDQFKLVHPHQW E\ affected communities, even when the cause is traced to past human actions taken before consequences were known. Collective identities are also reinforced by collective actions, such as marches, strikes, and boycotts that have become rather common in water politics in poor countries. Collective action has taken on a new twist in relationship to FRPPXQLW\ DQGSODFHEDVHGGHPDQGVFRQFHUQLQJZDWHU8QOLNHWKHPRUHWUDGLtional “pipeline” structure of knowledge transfer unidirectionally from scientists to citizens, citizens themselves are becoming engaged in the production of NQRZOHGJH /HPRV DQG 0RUHKRXVH )HOGPDQ DQG ,QJUDP :KLOH some of the involvement is monitoring the physical characteristics of local water, citizens are also becoming actively involved in the recovery and restoration of riparian habitats, and desire two-way engagement with scientists. Appealing to equity, community, and a sense of place is a way to get onto the agenda, and no satisfactory resolution of the many complex problems that plague water resources governance can be found without dealing with issues of equity (Feldman 1995, 2007; Falkenmark and Folke 2002; Gerlack et al. :KLWHOH\ et al. (QJDJLQJ WKH HWKLFDO GLPHQVLRQ RI ZDWHU JRYHUQDQFH UHTXLUHV YHU\ GLIIHUHQWSURFHVVHVWKDQVXJJHVWHGE\,:50DQGRWKHUZDWHU³UHIRUPV´HVSRXVHG within the water resources community. “Conventional tools for evaluating scientL¿F TXDOLW\ ZLWK LWV IRFXV RQ µGRLQJ WKLQJV ULJKW¶ KDYH WR EH H[SDQGHG WRZDUGV µGRLQJWKHULJKWWKLQJ¶´)DONHQPDUNDQG)RONH ,VVXHVRIHTXLW\IDLUQHVV and justice require processes in which values often treated as indirect or third-party effects of water management are elevated to primary concerns. Escalation of ethical issues to the forefront of discussion is beginning to take place in scholarship and practice at a number of levels, and needs to be pushed further along.

Beyond universal remedies 251 Literature on water and equity got inspiration in the 1970s through the work RI0DDVVDQG$QGHUVRQ DQGFRQWLQXHVDVDUDWKHUPDUJLQDOL]HGVWUDLQLQ ZDWHUOLWHUDWXUHXQWLOWKHSUHVHQWHJVHH%URZQDQG,QJUDP:HVFRDWet al.)ULWVFKDQG1HZLJ5RJHUVet al./ODPDVDQG3HUH]3LFD]R :KLWHOH\et al. ,QLWVHDUOLHVWLQFDUQDWLRQHTXLW\ZDVDVVHUWHGWREH HTXDOO\LPSRUWDQWDVHI¿FLHQF\LQORQJVWDQGLQJLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPVLQ6SDLQDQG WKH:HVWHUQ8QLWHG6WDWHV0DDVVDQG$QGHUVRQ /DWHUZDWHUHTXLW\ZDV LGHQWL¿HGDVDSUHFRQGLWLRQIRUUDLVLQJLQVXODUPLQRULWLHVRXWRISRYHUW\EHFDXVH ZDWHU ZDV VR FORVHO\ LGHQWL¿HG ZLWK FRPPXQLW\ LGHQWLW\ VHFXULW\ DQG FRQWURO %URZQDQG,QJUDP /DFNRIHTXLW\DQGSRYHUW\ZHUHIRXQGWREHOLQNHG QRWMXVWLQSRRUFRXQWULHVEXWLQKLJKO\LQGXVWULDOL]HGRQHVOLNHWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV :HVFRDW et al. $FFRUGLQJWR$QGUHD*HUODNDQGKHUFRDXWKRUV WKH WHUP ³K\GURVROLGDULW\´ ZDV FRLQHG E\ 3URIHVVRU 0DOLQ )DONHQPDUN DV WKH RSSRVLWH RI ³K\GURHJRLVP´ RU D QDUURZ VHOILQWHUHVWHG YLHZ RI ZDWHU ,Q LWV broadest sense, “hydrosolidarity” is a deliberate attempt to inject mutual understanding, common good, and ethics in relation to shared waters (Gerlack et al. 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ IURP P\ SRLQW RI YLHZ WKLV K\GURVROLGDULW\ FRQFHSW KDV EHFRPHMXVWDQRWKHUHOHPHQWLQWKHDOUHDG\RYHUIUHLJKWHGFRQFHSWRI,:50,Q FRQWUDVWRWKHUVFKRODUO\OLWHUDWXUHLGHQWL¿HVZDWHUHWKLFVDQGHTXLW\DVHVVHQWLDO preconditions for forging sustainable and implementable water policies and pracWLFHV)HOGPDQ:KLWHOH\ et al. 'DYLG)HOGPDQ FRQsiders the strengths and weaknesses of institutions live covenants, categorical imperatives, and stewardship as mechanisms to translate equity ideals into action. At the international level, covenant-like language has been adopted in a QXPEHURILQWHUQDWLRQDOVHWWLQJV7KH81(6&2IRUPHG:RUOG&RPPLVVLRQRQ (WKLFVRI6FLHQWL¿F.QRZOHGJHDQG7HFKQRORJ\LVDFDVHLQSRLQW6HDUFKLQJIRU universals in 2002, the commission offered six ethically based water principles:

SULQFLSOHRIKXPDQGLJQLW\±ZDWHUDVDEDVLFKXPDQULJKW SULQFLSOH RI SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ± IRFXV RQ FLWL]HQ SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ GHFLVLRQ making; SULQFLSOHRIVROLGDULW\±ZHDOOUHO\RQWKHFRQWLQXHGKHDOWKRIRXUHFRV\Vtems and are linked through our upstream and downstream dependency on these systems; SULQFLSOHRIKXPDQHTXDOLW\±LQFRUSRUDWLQJWKHYDOXHVRIMXVWLFHDQGHTXLW\ SULQFLSOHRIFRPPRQJRRG±ZDWHUDVDFRPPRQJRRGDQGHVVHQWLDOWRWKH realization of full human potential and dignity; and SULQFLSOHRIVWHZDUGVKLS±PRYLQJWRZDUGDVXVWDLQDEOHHWKLFDQG¿QGLQJD balance between using, changing, and preserving our land and water resources. (Selbourne 2000: 2)

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252 H. Ingram RUPRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQVFLHQWL¿FDOO\FRQVWUXFWHGIDFWVLQZDWHUSROLF\HVSHFLDOO\ if they inspire international social movements. Such a networked global social movement has emerged around the issue of dam-affected peoples, including LQGLJHQRXVSHRSOHDQGLVFRQQHFWHGZLWK³DQWLJOREDOL]DWLRQ´GLVFRXUVH:KLOH the initial targets of protest were governments, the movement has increasingly WDUJHWHG WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ¿QDQFLDO V\VWHP LQFOXGLQJ GRQRUV SULYDWH LQYHVWRUV WKH:RUOG%DQNLQWHUQDWLRQDO¿UPVDQGRWKHUV&RQFD 7KLVWUDQVQDWLRQDO social movement is aimed at challenging the prevailing dominance of economically based interests, experts, and bureaucracies over water decisions. There is OLWWOHLIDQ\OLQNDJHEHWZHHQWKLVVRFLDOPRYHPHQWDQG,:50 The multiple and complex meanings of water suggest that individuals and groups can be moved to change behavior or take action by impulses and motivaWLRQVWKDWDUHEH\RQGVLPSOHVHOILQWHUHVW:KLOHDQDO\VLVRIZDWHUSROLWLFVLQWKH past has tended to be viewed as a struggle among different user groups to attain particularized advantages, issues of identity, moral grounding, and fairness can be more persuasive than appeals to self-interested rationality in changing orientations and allegiances. The collective “sense of we” animates and mobilizes people cognitively, emotionally, and even morally to take common action (Snow 2001). Emanating from shared experience of loss of opportunity, security, and control over water resources in particular places and contexts, powerful forces can emerge to change governance of water resources. Inspiring leadership Getting things done in politics requires effective leadership, and in virtually all cases where real change occurs in water resources, success can be traced to the involvement of skilled political operatives. An examination of the emergence of ODUJHVFDOH ULYHU EDVLQ LQLWLDWLYHV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV GXULQJ WKH V UHIHUHQFHVWKDWRIWKHOHDGHUVKLSRI6HFUHWDU\RIWKH,QWHULRU%UXFH%DEELWW'R\OHDQG 'UHZ,QJUDPDQG)UDVHU /HDGHUVDUHQRWDWWUDFWHGWRSROLF\DUHDV unless there is a potential for public support beyond just the experts and professionals. Equally important, political leaders need access to ideas, especially if the public support prompted by crises is not to be diverted into the old-style large-scale dams and diversions of yesteryear. :DWHUSURIHVVLRQDOVQHHGWREHFRPHDVWXWHDWLQMHFWLQJZDWHUFRQFHUQVZKHQever what is at stake affects the resource. Forging meaningful linkages among GLYHUVH LVVXHV DQG ¿QGLQJ IDYRUDEOH YHQXHV DUH DQ LPSRUWDQW SDWKZD\ IRU meaningful change (Huitema and Meijerink 2007). For instance, staff of the &KHVDSHDNH%D\3URJUDPZHUHDEOHWRLQVHUWWKHLUFRQFHUQVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH 86 )DUP %LOO GXULQJ FRQJUHVVLRQDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQ 7KH\ FRPPXQLFDWHG effectively for support of both Bay state governors and elected legislators. 3URYLGLQJ KDUG GDWD RQ WKH FRVWV RI DGYHUVH HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSDFWV RI IDUPLQJ upon watersheds, along with other data suggesting that Chesapeake Bay states were getting less than their fair share of federal money, was extremely effective LQJHWWLQJSURYLVLRQVKHOSLQJWKH&KHVDSHDNH%D\3URJUDPLQWRWKHOHJLVODWLRQ

Beyond universal remedies 253 Similarly, proposed energy legislation contains cap and trade programs to control greenhouse gasses and presently allocates substantial money to environmental restoration, including wetlands (Swanson 2007). Speaking truth to power is not an easy matter, and while sensitivity to the stakes of political leaders is required, telling only those things that leaders want to hear is not. Leaders need to hear about the full urgency of problems and risks RI GRLQJ WRR OLWWOH WRR ODWH ,Q WKH $PHULFDQ 6RXWKZHVW RYHUH[SORLWDWLRQ RI water resources may be close to the “tipping point.” According to an analysis of the Arizona auditor general, the three most populous management areas will not UHDFK VDIH \LHOG E\ HYHQ WKRXJK WKDW ZDV WKH VSHFL¿F JRDO RI WKH KLJKO\ touted Arizona Groundwater Management Act. Even so, widely respected water commentators in the state write that the Act is a success, largely because of its innovative water banking provisions that make full use of Arizona’s legal entitlement to the already overstressed Colorado River (Jacobs and Holway 2004). As a matter of fact, while such water banking actions reduce groundwater overdraft for about 15 years, the aquifer depletion problem escalates after that, because population growth, resistance to conservation regulations, exempt wells, drought and dwindling surface water supplies continue unabated. Further, recharge credits are allowed to over-pumpers, even if recharged waters occur in other, disconnected aquifers (Hirt et al. ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWKDWZDWHUSROLF\ scholars and practitioners consider the Arizona experience as a cautionary tale. The visionary language of contemporary reforms is not the same as performance. The system is biased toward business as usual and only if political leaders see either threats or opportunities, and/or have vision and passion, are real changes likely to occur.

Contextual approach to design of water resources governance Context, as a term, is sometimes used to signify the vague, residual, unexplainDEOHDQGXVXDOO\VPDOOYDULDWLRQVWKDWDUHQRWFDSWXUHGLQJHQHUDOL]HGWKHRU\,Q contrast, context in this chapter is used to signify the numbers of complex characteristics that distinguish one geographic and temporal place from another. Just as ecologists see the interrelationships among numbers of physical things DQG OLYLQJ RUJDQLVPV DV PDNLQJ XS D SDUWLFXODU HFRORJ\ FRQWH[W VLJQL¿HV WKH nexus of physical, natural, political, cultural, social, and economic phenomena that make one place distinct from another. Context has a temporal dimension. The context of a place depends upon what has happened in the past, the development of some technologies and institutions, and not others, and the accretion or lessening of what is broadly described as social capital. Context clearly incorporates the presence or lack of distributive justice, fairness, and opportunity. Context also includes whether or not a place has reached some threshold that is IDYRUDEOHWRLQQRYDWLRQ7jEDUDDQG,OKDQ :DUQLQJV DJDLQVW WKH DGRSWLRQ RI VWDQGDUGL]HG VROXWLRQV WR SXEOLF SUREOHPV regardless of settings abound both in the general literature on public policy and practice and, in particular, reference to water resources. Harold Laswell, who is

254 H. Ingram widely credited with initiating the formal study of the policy sciences half a century ago, insisted that values, goals, and other elements of policy designs and processes depend upon context and that concrete settings determine what is IHDVLEOH %UXQQHU VHH DOVR /HMDQR 7KLV DGYLFH KDV EHHQ ODUJHO\ ignored in water management. Ruth Meinzen-Dick (2007: 15200) writes, Over the past 50 years, a series of institutional arrangements has been presented as panaceas to improve water management . . . Each of these approaches has failed to live up to expectations, largely because the variDELOLW\RIORFDOVLWXDWLRQVDQGWKHGLI¿FXOW\RIWUDQVSODQWLQJLQVWLWXWLRQVIURP one place to another. Moreover, standardized solutions often embrace only one perspective on problems, and where that perspective is presently lacking in a context, the reform may be quite helpful. Swallowed whole, however, a uniform approach to the subject as complex and disputed as water is indigestible. The editors and authors of the book Clumsy Solutions to a Complex World (Verweij and Thompson 2006) argue that the worst errors in designs for policy and management are made when one way of knowing and perceiving reality dominates and excludes other ways. Cultural theory is based on the notion that there are several dominant perspectives continuously in a tug-of-war with one DQRWKHUEXWHDFKQHHGVWKHRWKHUWRVXFFHHG,QSXUHHJDOLWDULDQLVPWKHUHLVDQ endless search for consensus and no way for deciding among alternative opinions. Hierarchy maintains order and has a whole armory of different solutions to FRQÀLFWVLQFOXGLQJXSJUDGLQJVKLIWLQJVLGHZD\VGRZQJUDGLQJDQGUHGH¿QLQJ but unless tempered by other perspectives, hierarchy ignores equity, lacks LQQRYDWLRQ DQG PD\ OHDG WR UHSUHVVLRQ ,QGLYLGXDOLVP DGYRFDWHV WKH ULJKW RI each person to live according to his/her own needs and wants, and spurs innovaWLRQEXWPD\DOVROHDGWRGLVRUGHUDQGLQHTXDOLW\:DWHUVHUYHVPXOWLSOHYDOXHV and perspectives, and it is not necessary to buy into the cultural approach to agree that clumsy solutions that contain within them a mix of perspectives are likely to be more self-correcting than purist designs. The contested terrain of water requires not government or markets, but both; not public or private water enterprises, but both; not expertise or grass-roots knowledge, but both; not water for nature or people, but both; not centralization or decentralization, but both; not river basin or watershed institutions, but both; (and the list could go further). Lach and coauthors (2006) found merit in several highly innovative policy designs in California that are clumsy solutions with appeal to multiple values. Rather than cost of service, several cities in Southern California use a conservation rate that is administratively determined, perceived as fair, uses economic incentives, and can be raised in time of drought. The (QYLURQPHQWDO:DWHU$FFRXQW(:$ DOORZV¿VKPDQDJHPHQWDJHQFLHVWRKDYH access to water rights through markets. Fish agencies work closely with water project operators to release water from storage facilities at times that both help ¿VKDQGDFFRPPRGDWHRWKHUXVHUV/DFK et al. ,QJUDPDQG)UDVHU

Beyond universal remedies 255 A contextual approach to water resources requires not just a close study of the elements of water resources management that are present in a context, but also ZKDW LV DEVHQW ,Q VLWXDWLRQV RI H[FHVVLYH EXUHDXFUDWLF FRQWURO GHVLJQV ZLWK greater transparency and public participation are appropriate. However, transparency and openness are not by themselves useful in contexts of great economic and social inequity where the resources necessary to participate are out of reach to the disenfranchised, and other outreach strategies and capacity building are required. Markets and privatization may well spur necessary innovation in conWH[WV ZKHUH HQWUHQFKHG SXEOLF EXUHDXFUDF\ DUH VORZ DQG LQHI¿FLHQW DQG ZKHUH entrenched interests have captured public subsidies, but they hardly make up for lack of long-term focus on water sustainability and intergenerational equity. Emotional appeals to conscientious stewardship of irreplaceable ecological and social water services can spur the development of social movements and change public priorities, but cannot overcome the incentive to waste that cheap or free water encourages. A contextual approach also suggests that there are no policy designs or institutions that once put in place can just run on their own without continual vigilance about perspectives that may become slighted as well as others that become WRRGRPLQDQW:KLOHWKHUHLVOLWWOHKRSHIRUSDQDFHDVWKHUHDUHFRQWLQXDOO\UHOHvant questions and concerns. Following is a list of suggestions and advice that QHHG WR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZKHQ HYDOXDWLQJ ZKHWKHU DQ\ VRUW RI UHIRUP PLJKW ¿W D particular context. The idealized perfect can be the enemy of the good. There are a number of examples where natural resources management has been muddling along doing a fairly good job only to be replaced by some “best practices” preferred by international networks of experts that resulted in decidedly worse performance /HMDQRDQG,QJUDP ,W VKRXOG EH UHPHPEHUHG WKDW DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UHRUJDQL]DWLRQ VDFUL¿FHV PDQ\ \HDUVRISRVVLEOHSURJUHVVWRWLPHVSHQWLQUHDGMXVWPHQW,QIDFWWKHUHPD\QHYHU EH D UHDGMXVWPHQW UHRUJDQL]DWLRQ PD\ PHUHO\ FRPSRXQG LQWHUDJHQF\ LQ¿JKWing/posturing, etc. The fundamental needs of the poorest of the poor must be kept in mind in GHVLJQLQJ JRYHUQPHQWDO DQG PDUNHW LQVWLWXWLRQV +RZH DQG ,QJUDP :KHUHWKHUHDUHDOUHDG\ODUJHHFRQRPLFVRFLDODQGSROLWLFDOLQHTXDOLWLHVFDUHIXO considerations must be given to whether reforms will help to level the differences among users or will further empower already advantaged water users. :KHUHSDVWZDWHUSROLFLHVDUHJHQHUDOO\LQHTXLWDEOHLWLVQRWJRRGHQRXJKWR VLPSO\LQFUHDVHHI¿FLHQF\HYHQLIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQDOHIIHFWVDUHQHXWUDO,QFUHDVLQJHI¿FLHQF\WKURXJKPDUNHWVPD\DFWXDOO\FDQFHORXWHTXLW\E\PDNLQJLWOHVV likely that decision makers will worry about distribution or non-market captured EHQH¿WVHJLQVWUHDPÀRZWKHFXOWXUDOLPSRUWDQFHRILQGLJHQRXV¿VKHULHV ,W LV EHVW WR PL[ DQG PDWFK SROLF\ WRROV WR JHW SHRSOH WR GR ZKDW WKH\ RWKHUZLVHZRXOGQRWGR3ROLF\WRROVVXFKDVFDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJ±LQFOXGLQJWKH building up of civil society, incentives, sanctions, regulations, charges, symbolic appeals, and the like are all based on different theories of how desired action can

256 H. Ingram be motivated. Different people and groups are open to very different kinds of appeals, and depending on who needs to change to reach some water-related objective, one or another tool can be usefully employed. 6FLHQWL¿F UHVHDUFK KDV DQ LQWULQVLF YDOXH EXW PRUH VFLHQFH PD\ RU PD\ QRW help water governance in particular contexts. Before recommending large investPHQWV LQ UHVHDUFK LW LV EHVW WR FRQVLGHU WKH UDQJH RI SRVVLEOH ¿QGLQJV DQG whether such information would be likely to change the attitudes and behavior RIDQ\DFWRUV ,WPD\DOVREHJHUPDQHWRFRQVLGHUWKHVSHFL¿FTXHVWLRQVVFLHQWLVWVDUHEHLQJDVNHGWRDGGUHVV±DQGZKDWZRXOGFRQVWLWXWHDVDWLVIDFWRU\DQVZHU (e.g. do policy makers need exactitude or probability; are scientists being asked to help determine a single choice, or to compare and evaluate the effectiveness RIWZRRUPRUHFKRLFHV" ,IDGGLWLRQDOSUREOHPRULHQWHGVFLHQFHLVOLNHO\WREH helpful, the investigatory process needs to be designed in such a way that knowledge is credible, trusted, and legitimate. :KHWKHURUQRWWRVHWXSQHZK\GURORJLFEDVHGPDQDJHPHQWLQVWLWXWLRQVLVD question of whether new arenas can make a difference in access and outcome in what may be an already crowded institutional context. Hydrologic-based institutions like watersheds and river basins are not the magic bullet in water managePHQW VRPH UHIRUPHUV LQVLVW WKHP WR EH :KLOH LW LV YHU\ RIWHQ KHOSIXO WR WU\ WR draw the boundaries for institutions to include upstream and downstream problems and other kinds of externalities, there are other considerations. National and subnational political boundaries are usually drawn on a basis different from K\GURORJ\DQGPLVPDWFKHVFUHDWHVHULRXVFRQÀLFWVRYHUVWDQGLQJDXWKRULW\DQG resources. There are always spaces between hydrological boundary lines, however they are drawn outside governance boundaries but still require attention. Further, there is the issue of whether decision makers across jurisdictions DUHSURYLGHGZLWKLQFHQWLYHVWREXLOGWUXVWHQKDQFHFRQ¿GHQFHVKDUHLQIRUPDtion, and collaborate on outcomes. Culture and place are very important in understanding why water institutions are the way they are and the extent to which there are opportunities for change. ,QVWLWXWLRQVPD\EHSDWKGHSHQGHQWVHWLQPRWLRQORQJDJRDQGVWLOORSHUDWLQJ HYHQWKRXJKWKH\QRORQJHU¿WH[LVWLQJYDOXHVDQGFLUFXPVWDQFHV2SSRUWXQLWLHV for change can be enhanced by a particularized narrative that explains how instiWXWLRQVWKDWRQFHVHUYHGXVHIXOSXUSRVHVQRORQJHUGRVR±DQGWKDWHQJDJHORFDO FXOWXUHVFRPPXQLWLHVLQGLVFXVVLRQ,WVKRXOGEHUHPHPEHUHGWKDWUHRUJDQL]DWLRQ VDFUL¿FHVPDQ\\HDUVRISRVVLEOHSURJUHVVWRWLPHVSHQWLQUHDGMXVWPHQW Changing policies does not necessarily solve problems of implementation. New policies may also be ignored. There is ample evidence that privatized water utilities often inherit customers accustomed to not paying their water bills and will continue to ignore bills even when they are sent by a different agency. Some reforms aggravate implementation problems. The more complex the policy chain, such as policies involving actors at multiple levels in public and private sectors, the more numerous are the veto points where policies can fail. 3ULYDWL]DWLRQDQGPDUNHWPHFKDQLVPVFDQQRWVXEVWLWXWHIRULQHSWJRYHUQPHQW and corrupt institutions. Both require continual monitoring and oversight by

Beyond universal remedies 257 governmental and political institutions with capacity to perform such demanding roles. Such reforms should be undertaken only within a transparent, accountable IUDPHZRUN WKDW KDV WKH FDSDFLW\ WR SURWHFW SXEOLF YDOXHV +RZH DQG ,QJUDP 2005). Strategies that can project credible alternative scenarios of water availability and cost for future generations in particular places can help develop concern for LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOHTXLW\,QWKHPDQ\FRQWH[WVZKHUHXQVXVWDLQDEOHSUDFWLFHVDUH being pursued, groundwater is being mined, rare and endangered species are being harmed, and water quality is becoming degraded, stewardship needs to be actively cultivated. :DWHUPDQDJHPHQWDOZD\VIDFHVPXOWLSOHFKDOOHQJHVEXWPDLQWDLQLQJSXEOLF FRQ¿GHQFH DQG VXSSRUW LV HVVHQWLDO &UHGLELOLW\ DQG WUXVW RQFH ORVW LV HQRUPRXVO\GLI¿FXOWWRUHFRYHU,QWKHFRQWH[WRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGLQFUHDVLQJULVN of extreme events, it is essential that water agencies accurately portray risks, explain the differences between preparedness and prevention, and engage the public in plans for equitable sharing of unavoidable burdens.

Conclusion Close consideration of many of the ideas promoted in contemporary water networks of researchers and practitioners reveals that some have a long history of failure in many places and only partial success in others. There is little new evidHQFHWKDWWKHIXQGDPHQWDOVWKDWFDXVHGSDVWIDLOXUHVKDYHFKDQJHG:KLOHWKHUHLV PXFK WR FHOHEUDWH DERXW UHFHQW GLVFRXUVH DQG DFWLYLW\ DURXQG ,QWHJUDWHG :DWHU Resources Management, including greater involvement of the social sciences in applied research and a general commitment to participation and openness, there simply are no universal remedies for good water governance. Moreover, there will always be stress among the multiple values underlying water problems. (YHQ ZKHQ SROLF\ GHVLJQV ¿W DQG ZRUN ZHOO LQ D SDUWLFXODU FRQWH[W FRQWLQXDO readjustments are likely to be necessary to deal with both emerging problems of a changing and increasingly variable climate and shifts among contending values. :KLOHFRQWHPSRUDU\ZDWHUUHVRXUFHVUHVHDUFKDQGSUDFWLFHSURYLGHVDOLYHO\ smorgasbord of ideas, often misleadingly swept together as “integrated,” far too OLWWOH DWWHQWLRQ KDV EHHQ GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV WKH SROLWLFV RI ZDWHU 3ROLWLFV LV RIWHQ viewed as an impediment by the water researchers and managers, perhaps as an outgrowth of their generally technical orientation. The mainstream of the water research and practice community prefers commitment to ideals that can VRPHKRZEHDGRSWHGDQGLPSOHPHQWHGE\³FROODERUDWLRQ´3ROLWLFVLVWKHPHDQV through which societies contend with differences among multiple values and perceptions, and the gaps between desires and resources. Collaboration, along ZLWK SHUVXDVLRQ FRQÀLFW EDUJDLQLQJ QHJRWLDWLRQ GLVFRXUVH DQG IRUFH DUH DOO political processes that may be more or less appropriate in various contexts. Research suggests, however, that collaboration is a lengthy process that may not UHVXOWLQVXI¿FLHQWO\WLPHO\RULQQRYDWLYHVROXWLRQV$GHTXDWHUHVSRQVHVWRZKDW

H. Ingram are bound to be mounting water problems will take more radical political action DQG VXEVWDQWLDO FKDQJH LQ ³EXVLQHVV DV XVXDO´ :KLOH ZDWHU WHQGV WR EH D SDWK dependent issue area that is subject to only small and sometimes inadequate change, opportunities for dramatic and transformative change do occur. Such RSSRUWXQLWLHVPD\EHWULJJHUHGE\H[WHUQDOHYHQWVOLNHÀRRGVRUGURXJKWEXWWR LJQLWH FKDQJH HYHQWV PXVW EH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ QHZ LVVXH GH¿QLWLRQV SXEOLF PRELOL]DWLRQ DQG FRPPLWWHG OHDGHUVKLS :DWHU UHVHDUFKHUV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV need to attend to political opportunity structures and the cultivation of leadership through strategic and timely insertion of ideas, perspectives, relevant science, and accumulated wisdom. There may be opportunities to link water with other critical subjects of heightened public concern, like energy and agriculture, to raise the visibility of water and to bring in a broader, more energized movements and networks. Equity and fairness have powerful generative force in water politics and water reforms that do not appear just and fair are likely to be politically infeasible. Attempts to design improved water resources management and institutions must attend to context. Standardized reforms have failed time after time because of a lack of understanding of the cultural and political logic of existing arrangements and/or because prescriptions worsened imbalances among competing perspectives in particular context. Attachments to the purity of particular approaches with broad labels like “markets,” “privatization,” “watershed governance,” or WKH OLNH OHDGV WR RYHUHPSKDVLV RI VRPH YDOXHV DQG EOLQGQHVV WR RWKHUV ,Q general, clumsy solutions that embrace multiple perspectives and appeal to difIHUHQWNLQGVRIORJLFDUHSUHIHUDEOH,WLVDPLVWDNHWREHOLHYHWKDWDOOSHRSOHDQG groups are motivated the same way. Mixed strategies that appeal to different ways of knowing are more likely to be effective. Finally, the water researchers DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV PXVW JLYH XS WKH SXUVXLW RI RQHVL]H¿WVDOO ZDWHU LQVWLWXWLRQV that, once set in motion, persist on their own by adaptively responding WR FKDQJLQJ FLUFXPVWDQFHV :KDW LV QHHGHG LV D UHQHZHG DSSUHFLDWLRQ IRU the pluralism of good ideas and a realization that no single idea can ever be the SDQDFHD 8QLYHUVDO UHPHGLHV DUH D PLUDJH PRPHQWDULO\ H[KLODUDWLQJ EXW ultimately disappointing.

Note 1 The author is grateful for helpful comments by Andrea Gerlack, David Feldman, &ODXGLD3DKO:RVWODQG'DYLG+XLWHPD

References %DXHU &- Against the Current: Privatization, Water Markets, and the State in Chile%RVWRQ0$.OXZHU$FDGHPLF3XEOLVKHUV %ODFNPRUH & ,QVRQ 5 DQG -LJJLQV 5 HGV 6RFLDO OHDUQLQJ $Q DOWHUQDWLYH policy instrument for managing in the context of Europe’s water, Environmental Science and Policy ±

Beyond universal remedies 259 %ODWWHU-DQG,QJUDP+ 5HÀHFWLRQVRQ:DWHU1HZ$SSURDFKHVWR7UDQVERXQGDU\ &RQÀLFWVDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ&DPEULGJH0$0,73UHVV %ORRPTXLVW:DQG6FKODJHU( 3ROLWLFDOSLWIDOOVRILQWHJUDWHGZDWHUVKHGPDQDJHment, 6RFLHW\DQG1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHV ± %URZQ )/ DQG ,QJUDP + :DWHU DQG 3RYHUW\ LQ WKH 6RXWKZHVW, Tucson, AZ: 8QLYHUVLW\RI$UL]RQD3UHVV %UXQQHU5' 7KHSROLF\VFLHQWLVWRIGHPRFUDF\UHYLVLWHGPolicy Sciences, 41(1): ± &RQFD . *RYHUQLQJ :DWHU &RQWHQWLRXV 7UDQVQDWLRQDO 3ROLWLFV DQG *OREDO Institution Building&DPEULGJH0$0,73UHVV Doremas, H. (2001) Adaptive management and the Endangered Species Act and the institutional challenges of the “new age” environmental protection, :DVKEXUQ /DZ Journal ± 'R\OH 0 DQG 'UHZ & /DUJH6FDOH (FRV\VWHP 5HVWRUDWLRQ )LYH &DVH 6WXGLHV from the United States:DVKLQJWRQ'&,VODQG3UHVV Falkenmark, M. and Folke, C. (2002) The ethics of socio-ecohydrological catchment management: towards hydrosolidarity, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 6(1): ± Feldman, D.L. (1995) Water Resources Management: In Search of an Environmental Ethic%DOWLPRUH0'-RKQV+RSNLQV8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV Feldman, D.L. (2007) :DWHU3ROLF\IRU6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW, Baltimore, MD: Johns +RSNLQV8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV )HOGPDQ'/DQG,QJUDP+ 0DNLQJVFLHQFHXVHIXOWRGHFLVLRQPDNHUV&OLPDWH forecasts, water management and knowledge networks, Weather, Climate, and Society, ± )LVFKKHQGOHU , ,QVWLWXWLRQDO FRQGLWLRQV IRU ,:50 7KH ,VUDHOL FDVH Ground Water1DWLRQDO*URXQGZDWHU$VVRFLDWLRQ ± )LVFKKHQGOHU,DQG)HLWHOVRQ( 7KH5HTXLVLWHVIRU5HDOL]LQJ,:50%HQH¿WV, SDSHU SUHVHQWHG DW ,QWHJUDWLYH :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW &$,:$ 1RYHPEHU ± )ULWVFK2DQG1HZLJ- 3DUWLFLSDWRU\JRYHUQDQFHDQGVXVWDLQDELOLW\(DUO\¿QGings of a meta-analysis of stakeholder involvement in environmental decision-making, in Eric Brousseau and Tot Dedeurwaerdere (eds.), 5HÀH[LYH *RYHUQDQFH IRU *OREDO 3XEOLF*RRGV&DPEULGJH0$0,73UHVV *HUODN$9DUDG\5DQG+DYHUODQG$ +\GURVROLGDULW\DQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOZDWHU FRQÀLFW,QWHUQDWLRQDO1HJRWLDWLRQ ± Guruswamy, L. and Tarlock, D. (2005) Sustainability and the future of western water law, LQ 'RXJODV 6 .HQQH\ HG ,Q 6HDUFK RI 6XVWDLQDEOH :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QWHUQD WLRQDO/HVVRQVIRUWKH$PHULFDQ:HVWDQG%H\RQG, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Hart, H. (1957) Crisis, community, and consent in water politics, /DZDQG&RQWHPSRUDU\ 3UREOHPV ± +LUW 3 *XVWDIVRQ $ DQG /DUVRQ ./ 7KH PLUDJH LQ WKH YDOOH\ RI WKH VXQ Environmental History ± +ROOLQJV &6 Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management, Caldwell, ,'%ODFNEXUQ3UHVV +RZH &: DQG ,QJUDP + 5ROHV IRU SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH VHFWRUV LQ ZDWHU DOORFDWLRQ OHVVRQV IURP DURXQG WKH ZRUOG LQ 'RXJODV 6 .HQQH\ HG In Search of 6XVWDLQDEOH :DWHU 0DQDJHPHQW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO /HVVRQV IRU WKH $PHULFDQ :HVW DQG Beyond, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

260 H. Ingram Huitema, D. and Meijerink, S. (2007) 8QGHUVWDQGLQJDQG0DQDJLQJ:DWHU7UDQVLWLRQV A Policy Science Perspective, paper presented to the Amsterdam Conference on Earth 6\VWHPV*RYHUQDQFH$PVWHUGDP7KH1HWKHUODQGV0D\± ,QJUDP+ :DWHUDVDPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOYDOXH,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUSDUWLFLSDWLRQDQG WUDQVSDUHQF\LQUHVSRQVHWRWKHSDSHUE\0DUFR6FKRXWHQDQG.ODDV6FKZDUW]³:DWHU DV D SROLWLFDO JRRG ,PSOLFDWLRQ IRU ,QYHVWPHQW´ International Environmental Agree ments ± ,QJUDP + DQG )UDVHU / 3DWK GHSHQGHQF\ DQG DGURLW LQQRYDWLRQ 7KH FDVH RI California water, in Robert Repetto (ed.), 3XQFWXDWHG(TXLOLEULXPDQGWKH'\QDPLFVRI US Environmental Policy1HZ+DYHQ&7
Beyond universal remedies 261 Snow, D. (2001) &ROOHFWLYH ,GHQWLW\ DQG ([SUHVVLYH )RUPV, Center for the Study of Democracy, online, available at: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2zn1t7bj. Swanson, A. (2007) $EHVV &HQWHU IRU (FRV\VWHP 6FLHQFH DQG 3ROLF\, conference at the 8QLYHUVLW\RI0LDPL'HFHPEHU± 7jEDUD -' DQG ,OKDQ $ &XOWXUH DV WULJJHU IRU VXVWDLQDELOLW\ WUDQVLWLRQ LQ WKH water domain: The case of the Spanish water policy and the Ebro river basin, Regional Environmental Change ± Verweij, M. and Thompson, M. (2006) Clumsy Solutions for a Complex World: Govern ance, Politics, and Plural Prescriptions1HZ
13 Water policies in Spain Balancing water for food and water for nature Consuelo Varela-Ortega

Introduction Competing access to water resources among sectors and regions has become a major socio-economic, environmental, and institutional problem in many arid and semiarid countries worldwide (Rosegrant et al. 2002; Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture 2007). Spain is the most arid country in Europe, and water issues as well as region-based rivalry for water are at the core of many public debates. Spain is at the crossroads of the waterabundant Europe and the arid Mediterranean basin. The agricultural sector in Spain is the largest water consumer, much likewise in other Mediterranean counWULHVDQGLWLVSHUFHLYHGDVWKHPDLQSURYRNHURIWKHQDWLRQ¶VZDWHUFRQÀLFWV$W present, the water sector in Spain is facing the challenge to adapt to the new European water policies that rank high in the political agendas of European policy makers and the Spanish national and regional administrations. Yet, water policy in Europe is mainly quality-driven and ecosystem-oriented not always tailored to address water scarcity and drought problems in arid countries. The main drivers for the development of irrigated agriculture and water use in 6SDLQDUHWHFKQRORJLFDODQGVFLHQWL¿FSURJUHVVPDUNHWIRUFHVDQGSROLF\GULYHQ factors. Irrigation expansion has had unquestionable positive economic and social effects for many rural economies, but overuse of water has been the course of unwanted environmental impacts and degradation of aquatic ecosystems. :DWHUXVHFRQÀLFWVDPRQJVHFWRUVDQGUHJLRQVLQLWLDWHGWKURXJKWKHDZDNHQLQJ of an environmental awareness in Spanish society and growing consciousness of region-based administrative and political willpower. The clash between irrigation-based food production and nature conservation is currently at the core RIPDQ\ZLGHO\YRLFHGZDWHUFRQÀLFWVDWLQWHUDQGLQWUDEDVLQVFDOHV:DWHUSROicies currently in force, as well as agricultural policies, call for further integrating ecological values and socio-economic welfare into water-management programs. Yet, balancing the trade-offs between water for food and water for nature is one of the major tasks that face policy makers, national and regional administration departments and all stakeholders involved (Vaux 2007) Focusing on the agricultural sector, this chapter analyzes the policy context that determines the use and management of water resources, both directly, such

Water policies in Spain 263 as water policies, as well as indirectly, such as agricultural policies. Exploring the evolution of irrigated agriculture and water use in Spain, the main argument builds on the role that water policies and agricultural policies are playing to respond to the increasing societal demand for a more sustainable use of water without severely damaging food production and rural livelihoods. The chapter explores also the decisive role of public participation and stakeholder involvement in the process of implementation, adaptation, and integration of these two key policies in Spain. In the midst of increasing uncertainties related to food production, climate change, and societal pressures, this chapter addresses also to what extent it will be possible to achieve integration, coordination, and synergies between water and agricultural policies. In sum, the chapter explores the possibilities, in a regional perspective, of achieving a balanced trade-off between water for food and water for nature in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive and the Common Agricultural Policy. 7KH FKDSWHU LV GLYLGHG LQWR ¿YH VHFWLRQV )ROORZLQJ WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ WKH second section discusses the main drivers that have set off irrigation development and water use in Spain. We argue on the interactions of technological factors, market forces and policy drivers and their effects on irrigation dynamics and water use in the different regions in Spain. The third section presents an analytical view of water policies and agricultural policies. This section is the core of the chapter and takes into account European, national, and regional policies, their interactions, coordination, and synergies across different scales. This section also elaborates on how these policies, as well as market forces, water institutions, and bottom-up stakeholder participation, have inspired the downscaling adaptation process undertaken by the Spanish irrigation sector. The fourth section builds upon the precedent sections and presents some concluding UHÀHFWLRQV IRU EDODQFLQJ WKH WUDGHRIIV EHWZHHQ ZDWHU IRU IRRG DQG ZDWHU IRU nature. References are presented in the last section. The main themes that support the central discourse in this chapter are neither novel nor unique to Spain’s water policies. In fact, they appear pervasively across countries worldwide and were repeatedly recalled and discussed among the different sessions of the Sixth Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy, held in Zaragoza, Spain, in July 2008. Various chapters in this book UHÀHFWPDQ\RIWKHVHYLHZVDVZHOODQGDUHLOOXVWUDWHGE\GLIIHUHQWH[DPSOHVLQ various world contexts. Some of the highlights of these views can be summarized as follows. The importance of designing and putting in force good water management practices for assuring a successful multifaceted water sector, was underlined by several authors. In particular, Margaret Catley-Carson stressed this view in a worldwide analysis of the temporal evolution of the water and food sectors. Similarly, Elias Fereres argued at a different spatial scale, on the importance of ¿HOGEDVHGZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWSUDFWLFHV+LVGHWDLOHGFRXQWU\VSHFL¿FDQGFURS VSHFL¿F VFLHQWL¿F UHVHDUFK DQG HPSLULFDO DQDO\VLV UHÀHFWV VROLGO\ WKH FRPSOH[ interactions between water management and the enhancement of crop water productivity that determine food production. Dr. Fereres’ views underline that

264 C. Varela-Ortega water productivityLVDVFLHQWL¿FDOO\FRPSOH[DQGFKDOOHQJLQJLVVXHWKDWLVEHVW tackled from a multidisciplinary perspective. The second section of this chapter follows along this line in a more policy-oriented scope to argue that the interactions of technological, agronomic, economic, and institutional factors are the main drivers for irrigation and water development in Spain. Linking water technologies and water institutions, John Briscoe, Margaret Catley-Carson, and +HOHQ,QJUDPDUJXHGWKDWZLWKLQWKHZRUOG¶VIXWXUHSHUVSHFWLYHVIRUVXVWDLQDEOH water use, water-related technologies are evolving steadily across countries and regions worldwide as institutions evolve at a much slower pace. As pointed out by Malin Falkenmark, Akisa Bahri, and Wendy Craik, based on different world examples, technical, institutional, and policy changes are crisis-driven. That is, the water sector evolves largely as a response to crisis-driven outcomes. Water VFDUFLW\ VLWXDWLRQV GURXJKW VSHOOV DQG ÀRRGV DV ZHOO DV RWKHU ZDWHUUHODWHG extreme events, have triggered ad hoc water policies and have paved the way for developing technical and institutional advances. The role of water policies remains a central issue and, to a larger extent, the role of enforcing these policies. Policy enforcement is, in many regions worldwide, one of the drawbacks DQG GLI¿FXOWLHV RI ZDWHU SROLFLHV WKDW HQWDLO FRQVLGHUDEOH VRFLDO FRVWV DV H[SUHVVHGE\-RKQ%ULVFRHDQG+HOHQ,QJUDPDPRQJRWKHUV7KHWKLUGVHFWLRQRI this chapter elaborates on this policy-relevant issue, illustrating how in Spain GRZQVFDOLQJDQGHQIRUFLQJ(8ZDWHUSROLFLHVWRUHJLRQVSHFL¿FVHWWLQJVLQYROYH non-negligible human and social costs. Uriel Safriel and Daniel Loucks underlined the importance of the scale and spatial dimensions of water as crucial factors for addressing water for life and for balancing water for people and QDWXUH$ORQJWKLVOLQH+HOHQ,QJUDPRSHQHGDGHHSHUDQGQRYHOSDWKZD\LQWR the social, political and contextual dimensions of water governance. Dr. ,QJUDP¶V GLVFXVVLRQ IROORZHG E\ WKH FRXQWU\VSHFL¿F H[DPSOH RI 0DUJDUHW Wilder, emphasized how water institutions are crafted differently across diverse countries and regions, and their capacity for enforcing effectively water policies is largely a matter of good water governance. This is in turn dependent on FRQWH[WVSHFL¿F VHWWLQJV SROLWLFDO GLVFRXUVH DQG VRFLHWDO QHHGV +HQFH public participation and strong stakeholder involvement play a crucial role for enhancing credibility and legitimacy of water-related political decisions and for achieving good water governance and a successful water management. This chapter elaborates also on these issues, since public participation is one of the cornerstones of the river basin management plans required by EU Water Framework Directive.

Main drivers of water use and irrigation development An overview Irrigation agriculture and the overall rural economy have changed drastically over the past decades in Spain. Much like many other countries in the Mediterranean, irrigation in Spain is one of the main drivers for prosperity in

Water policies in Spain 265 many regions (Benoit and Comeau 2005; Varela-Ortega and Sagardoy 2003). Extending throughout the country’s territory, irrigated agriculture occupies a mere 15 percent of all farming land, but accounts for almost two-thirds of the nation’s agricultural production value and for more than 80 percent of all farm exports – a booming sector featuring primarily high value-added fruits and vegetable crops (MAPA 2007b, see Figure 13.2). Irrigated agriculture in the Mediterranean littoral as well as in the inland regions has contributed to irrigation-dependent farming economies. It has secured agricultural income by offsetting endemic drought problems in many areas, and has been a major vehicle for rural population stability. In turn, as irrigation agriculture consumes more than two-thirds of the entire nation’s water resources, it has helped to shape the surrounding environment and created damaging ecological impacts to aquatic ecosystems, riverbeds, and biodiversity (Varela-Ortega et al. 2010; Martínez-Santos et al. 2007; Llamas and Garrido 2007). Nature and technology Irrigation development and water use in Spain have been determined largely by technological, institutional, and policy-driven factors. In past decades, irrigation agriculture was developed based on supply-side policies that relied on the expansion of publicly funded large water infrastructures, such as dams, reservoirs, and irrigation networks. Surface water was delivered at subsidized costs and irrigators were granted administrative concessions for water allotment rights, being water of public ownership. Increased environmental damage, water losses in the conveyance systems, and the necessity to save water launched a nationwide irrigation modernization program in 2003 (MAPA 2002; discussed in the section on Pathways for Integrating Policies for Sustainable Use of Water Resources, below). In parallel, groundwater irrigation has been expanding progressively in many regions in Spain, predominantly along the Mediterranean littoral and in some inland aquifers. Independent individual irrigators with no public support have privately funded this type of irrigation expansion. It has been the response to technological development in applied hydraulic sciences and to economic incentives. Groundwater irrigation has boomed “silently” in Spain and worldwide due to the facility for countless private farmers to gain access to modern well drilling and pumping technologies and to the low cost of irrigation installations (Llamas and Martínez-Santos %HVLGHV RWKHU IDFWRUV FRXQWHG OLNH ODUJHU IDUPLQJ SUR¿WDELOLW\ DQG WKH higher resilience and adaptive capacity of subterranean waters to climate variability and drought events (Llamas and Custodio 2003; Giordano and Villholth 2007; Shah et al. 2007). Total annual water withdrawals in Spain are nearly 38,000 million m3, of which 22,500 are actually distributed among sectors, excluding hydropower (6,000 million m3). The agricultural sector is the largest consumer accounting for 18,500 million m3, about 80 percent of all water uses (followed by 2,600 million m3 for domestic uses, 784 million m3 for the service sector, and 407

266 C. Varela-Ortega million m3 for industrial uses) (MMA 2000, 2007a). In unit terms, 547 m3 per FDSLWDDUHGLVWULEXWHGDQQXDOO\LQ6SDLQ$YHUDJHHI¿FLHQF\IRUSURYLGLQJZDWHU VHUYLFHVH[FOXGLQJK\GURSRZHU LVSHUFHQW7HFKQLFDOHI¿FLHQF\LQWKHDJULcultural sector is 75 percent on average, including water withdrawal and transport. Conveyance and application losses are not counted, and these can be considerably high in some systems (MMA 2007a). Spain has a large storage capacity through a solid network of dams and reservoirs of 56,200 million m3 that mitigates drought impacts and increases buffering capacity in many regions. Irrigation and conveyance technologies have evolved in Spain rapidly in the last years, and gravity irrigation, once predominant, has diminished sharply. Adoption of modern irrigation technologies as well as better conveyance and management systems from the reservoir to the farm gate have played a major role in increasing LUULJDWLRQHI¿FLHQF\$WSUHVHQWSUHVVXUL]HGV\VWHPVFRYHUSHUFHQWRIWRWDOLUULgated surface, of which 42 percent is under drip irrigation (predominantly in the southern water-scarce regions of Andalucía and Castilla-La Mancha), while gravity irrigation extends only over 35 percent of the irrigated territories (in the inland water-abundant regions of Castilla y León and Aragón) (MAPA 2007b) (see Figure 13.1). Water scarcity, increased precision in water applications and water-saving potential have caused the expansion of drip irrigation for farming highly value-added olives, vineyard, and fruit crops in the southern Spanish UHJLRQV,QDGGLWLRQUHVHDUFKJURXSVSXEOLFDJHQFLHVDQGSULYDWH¿UPVKDYHEHHQ active in developing irrigation technologies and management in Spain over the last years. Public investment for applied irrigation technologies and extension services has increased considerably, fostered by the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture though its irrigation research center. These research and development activities are conGXFWHGLQFORVHFROODERUDWLRQZLWKWKHDVVRFLDWLRQRISULYDWHLUULJDWLRQ¿UPVZKLFK have established an active network and technology platform present in the EU research programs (Garrido and Varela-Ortega 2007). Irrigation surface and production The long-term evolution of irrigated surface in Spain is shown in Figure 13.1. Figure 13.2 shows the short-term evolution of rain-fed and irrigated lands over the last decade and the correspondent value of production. As irrigated land has expanded steadily in the past, it stabilizes around 3.6 million ha from the mid1990s onwards, while rain-fed surface diminishes along the same period. Conversely, in constant 2000 prices, climate-dependent rain-fed production oscillates from a maximum of €9,440 million in 1997 to a minimum of €7,100 million in 2005, while irrigation production increased steadily along the period to a maximum of €15,100 million in 2003. Water productivity Irrigation is a key element for Spanish agricultural production. In many areas, access to water for irrigation determines the viability of farming activity. In

Water policies in Spain 267 addition, in many regions, irrigation has played an important social role. It has guaranteed a stable source of income for farmers, has reduced land abandonment, and has contributed to stabilize the population in rural areas. As shown in Figure 13.3, productivity of irrigated crops, measured as net margin per hectare, is about 4.5 times larger than rain-fed crops on the national average. The value of production can be nine times higher in irrigated farming, and may mount up to 20 times higher in some southern regions of intensive irrigation (MAPA E +RZHYHU PDUNHG UHJLRQDO YDULDWLRQV DQG FURSSLQJ SRWHQWLDO LQ 6SDLQ show that productivity differences are lower for continental crops, such as 4.00 3.50

Million ha

3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005

Year

Figure 13.1 Evolution of irrigated surface in Spain (source: MAPA 2007b).

15 12.5 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000 2001 Year

Value of production (irrigated) Surface (rain-fed)

2002

2003

2004

2005

Value of production (rain-fed) Surface (irrigated)

Figure 13.2 Surface (million ha) and value of production (billion €) in rain-fed and irrigated agriculture in Spain 1996–2005 (constant prices, year 2000) (source: MAPA 2007b).

268 C. Varela-Ortega cereals, and much higher for crops grown in the Mediterranean regions, like horticulture and fruits (nine times higher). On average, the value of production in irrigated agriculture has increased in the last years (as shown in Figure 13.2) but overall productivity has been limited. Gross margin in irrigated crops has not increased in past years due to the fact that farm input prices have increased more than crop prices received by farmers. In irrigated agriculture, farmers take their cropping decisions based on different W\SHV RI IDFWRUV 6RPH DUH UHJLRQDOO\ EDVHG DQG VLWHVSHFL¿F VXFK DV QDWXUDO agronomic conditions, water availability, and explicit environmental regulations; economic factors like market conditions and crop prices; input prices like irrigation equipment investments and working capital, labor availability and wage rates, fuel and energy costs, and water costs (including tariffs and energy use); and policy factors, such as water policy requirements (water quotas and tariffs), agricultural policy subsidies, and environmental regulations. Comparing prices received by farmers with prices paid, in 2006, the general price index for crop prices was 109, of which 108 corresponded to vegetal production and 106 to animal production (from a reference index 100 for the baseline year 2000). Conversely, the general price index for input prices was 113, but it raised to 144 for fuel, to 145 for nitrate fertilizers, 120 for phosphates, and 124 for in-farm investments (for the same baseline year). Wages also increased substantially – up to a general price index of 320 in 2006, from a reference index 100 for the baseline year 1985 (MAPA 2007b). Policy determines also, largely, the productivity of irrigated agriculture. In fact, crop subsidies granted to certain types of crops under the direct payments regime of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), increase substantially irrigation crop productivity. CAP-subsidized crops include continental crops (cereals, oilseeds, and protein crops), and Mediterranean olive groves. Figure 13.3 shows the comparison between crop productivity for rain-fed and irrigated crops in Spain (net margin per hectare) and for a total average with and without CAP subsidies. Yet, CAP support payments contribute to offset the differences between rain-fed and irrigated crop productivity (4.5 times higher without subsiGLHVDQGWLPHVKLJKHUZLWKVXEVLGLHV HYLGHQFLQJWKDWUDLQIHGFURSVSUR¿W from relatively larger support. Subsidies act as a risk shelter for potential crop failure, a frequent outcome in arid and drought-prone, rain-fed farming areas. +RZHYHULUULJDWLRQDJULFXOWXUHLVORVLQJLWVFRPSDUDWLYHDGYDQWDJHZLWKUHVSHFW to rain-fed farming in the newly applied decoupled CAP programs. In fact, prior to the CAP reform of 2003 (in force in 2006), CAP direct payments were FRXSOHG WR SURGXFWLRQ DQG WKXV LUULJDWHG FURSV ZLWK KLJKHU \LHOGV EHQH¿WHG from higher subsidies. The trend in the newly reformed CAP towards full decoupling of direct payments, reinforced in the subsequent reforms, has certainly reduced the comparative advantage of subsidized irrigated crops (This is discussed in the section on the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), below). In turn, the risk-shelter role of the subsidy scheme has increased relatively for rainIHGIDUPLQJ+RZHYHUIDUPHUVZLOOFRQWLQXHWRFKRRVHLUULJDWHGFURSSLQJZKHQever possible as a harvest guarantee during dry years.

Water policies in Spain 269 7,000 Rain-fed Irrigation

Gross margin (B/ha)

6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Cereals

Olive

Vineyard Horticulture

Citrus

Fruit trees (non citrus)

Other crops

Total crops (average)

Crops

Figure 13.3 Productivity comparison between rain-fed and irrigated crops (2001). Total crops (average) including subsidies and without subsidies (source: own elaboration, based on data of MMA 2007a).

Water value in a regional perspective Water productivity varies substantially across regions and crop types in Spain, evidencing marked regional differences throughout the Spanish territory. Figure 13.4 shows, respectively, the maps of the different Spanish Autonomous Communities (ACs) and the Spanish River Basins (RBs). As shown in Figure 13.5, in the Mediterranean water-scarce basins (South, Segura, Júcar, and Guadalquivir) productivity of water is highest, ranking between €0.4 and €1.4 per cubic meter (net margin), as in the more waterabundant basins of the northern regions (Ebro, Duero, Tajo), in which water productivity is around €0.2–0.3 per cubic meter. These differences respond to the type of agriculture and modes of production in the different Spanish regions. In the southern Mediterranean regions, climate and agronomic conditions, as well as access to water resources and development of irrigation infrastructure have shaped the type of farming and cropping patterns of a dynamic and competitive agriculture. Non-subsidized highly value-added crops grow in these DUHDVDQGLUULJDWLRQDJULFXOWXUHLVSUR¿WDEOHZLWKQHWPDUJLQRIPRUHWKDQ¼ per hectare, especially in fruit trees, horticulture, and olive groves (in some protected irrigated orchard crops, net margin can reach €18,000 per hectare). In some inland regions, specialized production, such as vineyards in central La Mancha or olive groves in Andalucía, also have higher comparative productivity. Yet, in the inland continental regions, irrigated agriculture is dependent upon CAP subsidies for cereals and oilseeds, and farm productivity is lower (€900 to €1,800 per hectare) but substantially higher than in rain-fed production (see Figure 13.6)

270 C. Varela-Ortega

Figure 13.4 (a) the Spanish autonomous communities and (b) the Spanish river basins (source MMA 2007a).

+RZHYHU ZDWHU IRU LUULJDWLRQ LQ 6SDLQ LV XVHG PDLQO\ IRU ORZSURGXFWLYLW\ faming. Comparing water use, crop productivity, and gross value-added, we can see that 75 percent of all water used in agriculture throughout the Spanish basins is utilized for crops with low-productivity ranges of less than €0.4 per cubic meter. These crops account for only 16 percent of all agriculture gross valueadded (measured as €/ha net margin ranges) (Table 13.1 and Figure 13.7). At the other extreme, only 4 percent of water in the basins is used to produce highproductivity crops, between €1 and €3 per cubic meter and of more than €3 per cubic meter, with a 66 percent share in total gross value added. These crops are grown in the southern Mediterranean basins, Sur, Guadalquivir and Segura. Thus, regional disparities in irrigated agriculture and water use in Spain are one of the cornerstones of water management policies.

TOTAL Canarias Tajo

Basins

Sur Segura Norte Júcar Guadiana Guadalquivir Ebro Duero 0

0.2

0.4

0.8 1 0.6 Net margin (B/m3)

1.2

1.4

1.6

Figure 13.5 Water productivity by river basin (2001–2002). Net margin (€/m3) (data include 78 percent of total irrigation in Spain) (source: own elaboration, based on MMA 2007b).

C/ha/year 200 201600 6011,500 1,5012,500 2,5013,000 3,0014,000 4,0015,000 5,0017,000 7,00118,000 N.A.

Figure 13.6 Productivity of irrigated crops (€/ha per year) (average values of prices and yields of 1997–2002) (source: MMA 2007b: 186).

272 C. Varela-Ortega Water pressures and climate change Water withdrawals have increased in Spain at a 2 percent annual rate during 1997–2001, a larger increase than in other southern EU countries (Benoit and Cameau 2005; MMA 2007a). This situates Spain among the heavy water consumer countries in the Mediterranean. Figure 13.8 shows that countries that have experienced the highest growth in water consumption during the last decade Table 13.1 Agriculture water use in the Spanish basins (mm3) by crop productivity range (2001–2002) (based on 78 percent of total irrigation in Spain) Productivity range (€/m3) Basin Duero Ebro Guadalquivir Norte Guadiana Júcar Segura Mediterráneas Andaluzas Tajo Canarias

<0.02 495 401 733 1 1,001 119 54 97

0.02–0.2 0.2–0.4 1,202 334 1,499 768 1,151 1,012 2 0 496 78 581 391 272 174 42 38

299 7

463 1

16 0

Total

3,207

5,709

2,811

0.4–0.6 113 675 443 8 256 583 271 11

0.6–1 11 45 155 0 62 206 171 39

1–3 1 23 21 0 157 12 51 11

>3 0 0 16 0 0 8 19 93

Total 2,156 3,411 3,531 11 2,050 1,900 1,012 331

47 0

24 36

104 32

0 0

953 76

2,407

749

412

136

15,431

Source: MMA (2007a)

Million m3

Consumption (%)

Value added (%)

6,000

45.9

50 45

5,000

40

36

35

Million m3

30 3,000 2,000

25 21 18

1,000 0

5

11

16

20 15

9

9 5

0.1 0.02

20

Percentage

4,000

10 3

0

5 0

0.020.20 0.200.40 0.400.60 0.601.00 1.003.00

3

Net margin (C/m3)

Figure 13.7 Total water use in agriculture by crop productivity range as percent of volume and value added (based on 78 percent of total irrigation in Spain) (2001–2002) (source: own elaboration, based on MMA 2007a).

Figure 13.8 Total water demand by country in the Mediterranean (1980–2025) (source: Benoit and Comeau 2005 (baseline scenario)).

274 C. Varela-Ortega (over 2 percent per year) are Turkey, Syria, Egypt, and Spain. Projections for 2025 show that Spain is expected to grow its total water demand at about 0.3 percent annually from 2000 to 2025 (to reach close to 40,000 million m3 from the current 37,000 million m3). This growth rate is above the rate of the other EU Mediterranean countries, France, Greece, and Italy, which tend to stabilize demand and even drop it (Italy). The heavy water-consumer countries expected to grow their water demand around 1 percent annually over the projected period are the southern and eastern rim Mediterranean countries, especially Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. The Blue Plan for the Mediterranean, and the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) of the UNEP, have analyzed pressures on natural water resources in the Mediterranean catchment basin using the Water Exploitation Index (WEI) of UHQHZDEOHQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHV7KHLQGH[H[SUHVVHGDVDSHUFHQWDJHLVGH¿QHGDV the ratio of “withdrawals from renewable natural water resources to average renewable natural water resources” (Benoit and Comeau 2005: 77). Figure 13.9 shows the different indices for the Mediterranean countries on a national average. In Spain, the WEI calculations for 2000 is nearly 50 percent on average – the largest of all EU countries and similar to Morocco. Projections for 2025 show that the aggregate WEI increases from 32 to 34 percent – the largest in the (8 +RZHYHU RQH RI WKH PDLQ GULYHUV RI ZDWHU GHPDQG LQ WKH 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ countries is irrigation that varies across the different regions and basins. It shows, among other factors, the enormous variety of agronomic, socioeconomic, environmental, and institutional conditions. Measured at the basin VFDOHWKH6SDQLVKUHJLRQVERUGHULQJWKH0HGLWHUUDQHDQDUHFODVVL¿HGZLWKLQWKH

Figure 13.9 Water exploitation indices of renewal natural resources in the Mediterranean countries for 2000 and 2025 (aggregate values) (source: Benoit and Comeau 2005).

Water policies in Spain 275 ¿UVWJURXSRIUHJLRQVDQGFRXQWULHVIRUZKLFKZDWHUZLWKGUDZDOVZLOOEHFORVHWR or surpassing the average annual volume of renewable natural water resources by 2025 (WEI equal to or greater than 75 percent). Other countries in this group are Egypt, Israel, Libya, and the Palestinian territories (Figure 13.10). According WR WKH %OXH 3ODQ FODVVL¿FDWLRQ 6SDLQ LV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH JURXS RI FRXQWULHV RI “unsustainable water production” (Table 13.2). This indicates that pressures on water resources are growing in some southern Spanish regions that are severely limited by the availability of their renewable fresh water resources.

Figure 13.10 Water exploitation index for 2000 and 2025 (source: Benoit and Cameau 2005).

276 C. Varela-Ortega Table 13.2 Mediterranean countries with unsustainable water production indices Country

Overexploitation of renewable water resources (1) (in billion m3/year)

Water demand (2) Index of unsustainable (in billion m3/year) water production % 1

Spain Malta Cyprus Israel Palestinian territories Egypt Libya Tunisia Algeria

0.70 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.03

18.20 0.05 0.33 1.80 0.13

4 31 12 10 23

0.00 0.77 0.18 0.00

66.00 2.24 2.27 2.90

0 34 8 0

Source: Margat (2004). Note 1 Index of unsustainable water production = overexploitation of renewable water resources/water demand.

Effects of climate change According to the Ministry of the Environment estimates, climate change will affect water availability in Spain, more acutely in the semiarid zones (MMA &RQVHTXHQWO\ ZDWHU GHPDQG IRU LUULJDWLRQ ZLOO LQFUHDVH +RZHYHU impacts of climate change are not solely dependent on hydrological factors. Mitigation and adaptation measures to respond to climate change rely on management strategies developed in the different river basins to meet water demand requirements for population consumption and sectoral needs. Water demand in agriculture is sensitive to temperature increase, fall in precipitation, and seasonal variation. In aggregate estimates, average water resources in Spain for 2030 projections will diminish between 5 and 14 percent (MMA 2005) in the case of a temperature rise of 1ºC and 5 percent decrease in precipitation (scenario 2 in Figure 13.11). In critical semi-arid areas, water availability might be reduced by 50 percent with respect to current volumes, such as the southern Mediterranean basins, the arid hinterland basins, and the island basins (Segura, Júcar, Guadalquivir, Sur, Guadiana, Canaries, and Balearics). Seasonal variability will be more acute. Estimates for 2060 in the scenario of temperature rise of 2.5ºC, and an 8 percent reduction in precipitation, will reduce average water resources by 17 percent (MMA 2005). General recommendations point out the necessity to pursue research on crop evapotranspiration, soil moisture, crop water needs, and aquifer recharge as global warming is expected to increase crop water demand (Iglesias et al. 2007). According to Iglesias and coworkers (2007), evapotranspiration water demand in agriculture will increase across all basins in Spain between 5 and 10 percent, and consequently water availability will decrease between 3 and 12 percent.

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Water policies in Spain 277

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

Global average

Figure 13.11 5HGXFWLRQV LQ ZDWHU LQÀRZV LQ WKH 6SDQLVK EDVLQV GXH WR FOLPDWH FKDQJH effects in two scenarios and global average (2030 projections) (source: MMA 2005). Scenario 1: 1ºC temperature increase and no change in precipitation Scenario 2: 1ºC temperature increase and 5 percent decrease in precipitation

Policy drivers In the new policy and institutional context of the EU, there are two main public policy bodies that affect directly and indirectly water consumption in Spain as in the other EU southern member sates. These are water policies and agricultural policies, which constitute one of the major drivers of irrigation agriculture in Spain. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), enacted in 2000, is affecting strongly water use for irrigation in Spain. Framed in an integrated basin-based management structure, the WFD seeks to attain the good ecological status of all water bodies and a sustainable use of water throughout the EU basins. Water demand instruments and water pricing schemes are favored to attain cost recovery of all water services. If fully implemented, this will have major impacts on irrigated agriculture in Spain across regions and farming sectors (see the section on the EU Water Framework Directive, below). On the other hand, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has encouraged irrigation expansion and increased water use during the 1980s and 1990s as higher production-coupled subsidies were granted for irrigated crops. This had FOHDU EHQH¿WV IRU WKH IDUPHUV EXW FDXVHG RYHUXVH RI LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU DQG unwanted environmental damage to aquatic ecosystems, mostly in the central regions of Spain and in Andalucía, which grow CAP-supported crops. Recently, the CAP evolved to adapt to international trade agreements into the so-called Luxembourg reform in 2003 and further reinforced in the CAP +HDOWK &KHFN enacted in 2009, by which subsidies, or direct payments, have been decoupled

278 C. Varela-Ortega from production. These payments are tied to the obligation by all farmers to comply with certain environmental regulations (among others) under a “crosscompliance” scheme. Therefore, as the CAP programs are progressively including environmental regulations for nature protection, it becomes crucial to seek a well-balanced integration of the agriculture and water sectors. Synergies between water and agricultural policies have not been fully explored, and their joint application and integration is receiving increased attention among public authorities. The following scheme summarizes the interactions and main characteristics of the two EU policies currently in force (Figure 13.12). Water management institutions Water institutions in Spain are facing the challenge of adapting to new policy requirements, organizational structure, and societal demands. Spain’s water sector is required to apply, progressively, the EU Water Framework Directive that entails major changes towards water demand management, integrated river basin administration, and protection of water ecosystems. This calls for new modes of water management, institutional structure, and public participation. It LV D GLI¿FXOW WDVN EXW WKH 6SDQLVK 5% DUH PRYLQJ IRUZDUG IRU FRPSOHWLQJ E\ 2012, the new RB management plans based on an active participatory initiative, a requirement of the WFD implementation plan. +LVWRULFDOO\QDWLRQDODVZHOODVLQWHUQDWLRQDOIDFWRUVKDYHKDGDGHFLVLYHLQÀXence in the way water administration institutions evolved in Spain. On the national

Figure 13.12 The policy context in the EU and irrigated agriculture (source: own elaboration updated from Varela-Ortega 2007).

Water policies in Spain 279 VLGH WKH :DWHU $FW HVWDEOLVKHG D XQL¿HG OHJDO IUDPHZRUN WKDW HPEHGGHG water administration institutions. Their recent statutory regime had to adjust to the new decentralized model of the Spanish state that has passed on to the autonomous regional governments many administrative competences. Figure 13.13 shows the structure of water management organization in Spain at the different levels of DGPLQLVWUDWLYH XQLWV 9DUHOD2UWHJD DQG +HUQiQGH]0RUD 7KH 0LQLVWU\ RI the Environment is the national authority for the management of water resources, but autonomous governments are also involved in matters related to water resources, such as land use planning, the environment, agriculture, and forests. The European Union has also direct implications in water management throughout its regulations and directives (such as the WFD), environmental legislation, and the CAP. The Ministry of Agriculture (recently integrated with the Ministry of the Environment, Rural, and Marine Affairs) is responsible of the national irrigation policies, like the national Irrigation Plan, but the regional administrations have the competence of implementing the CAP programs as well as environmental policies. At local level, municipalities are in charge of domestic water distribution. For the management of water resources, Spain has been divided into 15 independent River Basin Authorities (RBAs) (see Figure 13.4b) that have considerable RUJDQL]DWLRQDO IXQFWLRQDO DQG HFRQRPLF VHOIJRYHUQPHQW :KHQ D EDVLQ ÀRZV though several regions (autonomous communities under the Spanish denomination), its administrative authority is under the competence of the national Ministry of the Environment, recently merged with the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food, under a unique ministerial department (Ministry of the Environment,

Figure 13.13 The Spanish institutional framework of water management (source: $GDSWHGIURP9DUHOD2UWHJDDQG+HUQiQGH]0RUD

280 C. Varela-Ortega 5XUDODQG0DULQH$IIDLUV ,QWKHFDVHWKDWWKHPDLQULYHUÀRZVZLWKLQDVLQJOH region, the river basin management is under the competence of the corresponding regional autonomous government. RBAs in Spain have a long historical tradition of single integrated management units with competences in all types of waters and IRUDOOZDWHUXVHV7KH¿UVWZDVFUHDWHGLQWKH(EUREDVLQ DQGWKH:DWHU $FW RI HQODUJHG WKHLU SRZHUV DV XQL¿HG SODQQLQJ DQG PDQDJHPHQW XQLWV introduced environmental protection objectives, and gave a larger role to users in WKHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJERDUGV9DUHOD2UWHJDDQG+HUQiQGH]0RUD Irrigation associations (IAs) in Spain are one of the most emblematic examples of water management. Built upon a long historical tradition that goes back to Roman and medieval Arab civilizations, the IAs were actively involved in managLQJZDWHUZHOOEHIRUHWKH\ZHUHGH¿QHGH[SOLFLWO\LQDQ\OHJDOWH[W%ROHD The 1985 Water Act reinforces the statutory provisions of the IAs as independent users of public waters (surface and subterranean) with administrative competences. The IAs are governed by bylaws drawn upon the Water Act and constitute one of the major participatory management actors in the RBAs. Extending throughout the Spanish territory, there are about 7,000 IAs that are responsible for managing more than 90 percent of all irrigated lands. IAs have competences in water distribution, HVWDEOLVKPHQWRIZDWHUXVHWDULIIVFRQWURODQGFRQÀLFWUHVROXWLRQDQGWKHLUUROHLV crucial in the current water management plans. The IAs are key stakeholders in the water management process. The role and participation of the IAs is crucial for achieving a successful adaptation of the water institutions to the new policy context. They are key actors in the participatory process that encompasses the implementation of the European water policy. They also provide insights for the downscaling RIWKHSROLF\WRDGGUHVVUHJLRQDOO\EDVHGDQGVLWHVSHFL¿FZDWHULVVXHV2QHH[DPSOH of their role in national water management is their active participation in the National Irrigation Plan and in the newly created water rights exchange centers (discussed in the section on The Spanish Water Policies, below). The Spanish RBAs are well structured to respond to the WFD requirements of a single-management unit, to develop the water management plans, and to FRPSOHWHWKHUHTXLUHGSXEOLFSDUWLFLSDWLRQSURJUDPV9DUHOD2UWHJDDQG+HUQiQdez-Mora 2010). RBAs are capable of dealing with supply and demand variability, climate change impacts, and changes in water demand derived from the agricultural policy reforms. They also have established participatory boards with WKHLUULJDWLRQFRPPXQLWLHVDQGRWKHUZDWHUXVHUV+RZHYHUWKH:)'UHTXLUHVD more complex integrated ecosystem vision of water resources that combines technical, hydrological, socio-economic, and institutional factors. In addition, transparency in data and information collection, public participation in management decisions, and stakeholder involvement are main pillars of the WFD implementation. This requires further adaptation and action plans for most of the Spanish basins to respond to these challenges. Involvement of stakeholders in the public participation process launched recently by the RBAs along the elaboration of the RB plans is a major step towards adaptive and integrated water management. As the process is still emerging, prospects are favourable for some RIWKHPRUHDFWLYHEDVLQV9DUHOD2UWHJDDQG+HUQiQGH]0RUD

Water policies in Spain 281

Policies for water for food and water for nature This section discusses the EU water policies and agricultural policies. Their interconnections, need for common actions, and potential synergies in waterrelated issues. Policies are presented in their global dimension although regional effects are also discussed. The last sub-section is dedicated to a comparative YLHZRIERWKW\SHVRISROLFLHVDQGWKHLUGRZQVFDOLQJWRDGGUHVVVSHFL¿FUHJLRQDO and local applications, and action plans. For this latter analysis, we have chosen a region in central Spain using groundwater irrigation in which European and regional water and agricultural policies converge at the local level. This area, in the western La Mancha aquifer of the Guadiana basin, is an emblematic example RI ZDWHUUHODWHG FRQÀLFWV SUHVLGHG E\ WKH FODVK EHWZHHQ LUULJDWLRQEDVHG economic and social development, and wetland protection. The EU Water Framework Directive The Water Framework Directive (WFD), enacted in 2000 and planned to be in full operation by 2012 (EC 2000), is one of the main environmental legislations of the EU. The WFD is part of a wider policy framework that has inspired the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (SDS) and platform for action (EC 2001, 2009). The SDS aims to promote a sustainable link between economic growth and nature protection (using the Polluter Pays Principle). Based on three main pillars for policy action – economic, social, and environmental – the SDS calls for the integration, coherence, and good governance of policies, as well as the active involvement of stakeholders. The WFD responds to the environmental goals of the SDS. The objective of the WFD is to achieve the good ecological status of all water bodies in the EU, maintain and promote sustainable water use in a long-term perspective (art.1). Structured in a basin-based management unit, the WFD requires also the undertaking of program measures to achieve the objective of good water status by 2012, as well as the revision and updating of the program along a 15 year horizon from the enacting of the WFD (art. 11). River basin management plans (RBMP) have to be implemented in all basins and assure transparency and public participation of all stakeholders involved in the production, review, and updating of the plans (art.14). At present, the RBMP are being completed and implemented in the Spanish basins (alike in the other EU Member States), and the public participation process that was launched alongside is still in progress in many of the Spanish basins. For the purpose of achieving its environmental objectives, the WFD calls for D PRUH HI¿FLHQW XVH RI ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV )RU WKLV LW UHTXLUHV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI economic instruments (such as water tariffs) to recover the costs of water services, including environmental and resource costs, in accordance with the Polluter Pays Principle (art. 9). The application of water-pricing policies must UHJDUGWKHVSHFL¿FFOLPDWLFDQGJHRJUDSKLFDOFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHUHJLRQVDIIHFWHG and the social, economic, and environmental impacts. In Spain, it is still not

282 C. Varela-Ortega FOHDU KRZ WKHVH SULQFLSOHV RI FRVW UHFRYHU\ ZLOO EH ¿QDOO\ DSSOLHG EXW VXUHO\ LQFUHDVLQJ ZDWHU WDULIIV ZLOO UHGXFH IDUP SUR¿WV *DUULGR DQG &DODWUDYD The effects of cost-recovery tariffs on Spanish farms is discussed in the next section in the light of the strong dependence of certain types of farms on agricultural policies and world trade agreements. The WFD is quality-oriented, stating that it is “primarily concerned with the quality of the waters. Control of quantity is an ancillary element in securing good water quality” (principle 19). Water scarcity issues that affect the MediterUDQHDQFRXQWULHVRIWKH(8DUHQRWVXI¿FLHQWO\UHÀHFWHGLQWKH'LUHFWLYH7KLVLV RQHRIWKHGLI¿FXOWLHVWKDWFRXQWULHVOLNH6SDLQIDFHZKHQLWLVFRQIURQWHGZLWK implementation of the WFD. Spain faces two objectives, sometimes contradictory. On the one side, the EU WFD requires achieving the good status of all ZDWHUV DQG WKXV HQYLURQPHQWDO ÀRZV LQ ULYHUV DQG UHFKDUJH OHYHOV LQ DTXLIHUV have to be secured. On the other hand, the national legislation requires assuring water demands for all users and sectors in the river basins. Integrating these two REMHFWLYHVLVDGLI¿FXOWWDVNWKDWUHTXLUHVDGDSWDWLRQVWUDWHJLHVDQGVSHFL¿FDFWLRQ plans. There are good prospects in Spain, though. The public participation programs launched by the RBs for the elaboration of the RB management plans are platforms for action that join all stakeholders and key actors involved in water management in the basins. These platforms are a forum for discussion and dialogue of shared water problems in different areas in the basins. In spite of novelty in Spain, they are an opportunity for achieving a successful and socially accepted coordination between the national and European objectives of the basins’ water plans. The policy matrix in the section on Downscaling from Global Principles to Local Actions: A Comparative View of Polices for Water and Food summarizes the characteristics and effects of the WFD, of the CAP programs and of a regionVSHFL¿FZDWHUSODQDQGDJULHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\SURJUDP Complying with the WFD: can irrigated farms survive? The WFD, if fully implemented to enforce cost-recovery targets, could have strong socio-economic and environmental effects in the Spanish agricultural sector. Full recovery of water delivery costs can have marked regional effects, as evidenced from various studies conducted in different regions and river basins throughout the Spanish territory (see Table 13.3). Based on these studies (using various types of modeling methodologies), it can be concluded that technological as well as institutional and agronomic factors are binding and, hence, water demand tends to be inelastic at low price ranges. In consequence, volumetric pricing is often controversial, as it could have a limited potential for watersaving purposes in some types of farms. This has been discussed in the literature (Perry et al. 1997; de Fraiture and Perry 2002; Agudelo 2001), and it can be applied to the Spanish farms. If the EU WFD is applied to recover all costs of water services, water tariffs will have to rise considerably causing limited water XVH UHGXFWLRQV DQG LQÀLFWLQJ VXEVWDQWLDO IDUP LQFRPH ORVV DQG VRFLDO LPSDFWV

Water policies in Spain 283 Thus, the application of the EU WFD might question the viability of certain irrigation farms in Spain’s inland, less-fertile regions (Garrido and Calatrava 2010; Berbel and Gutiérrez 2004; Sumpsi et al. 1998; Varela-Ortega et al. 1998; Iglesias et al. 2004; Mejías et al.2004; Blanco and Varela-Ortega 2007; Esteve and Varela-Ortega 2008; Varela-Ortega and Blanco 2008). Table 13.3 shows the effects of cost-recovery water tariffs on water consumption, farm income, and cropping patterns in several river basins in Spain. As we can observe, water consumption is not expected to decrease sharply when tariffs mount to full-cost recovery levels, but farm income is reduced more than two-fold in most of the river basins using surface water, which will OHDG WR LUULJDWLRQ DEDQGRQPHQW DQG VRFLDO FRQÀLFWV +RZHYHU DFFRUGLQJ WR recent research, in the case of groundwater irrigation (Western La Mancha aquifer), price responsiveness of water demand is higher than in the case of equivalent surface water irrigated farms (central Castilla y León) (Varela2UWHJDDQG%ODQFR *URXQGZDWHULUULJDWRUVUHFRYHUDOO¿QDQFLDOFRVWVRI irrigation operations (O&M and capital costs). In addition to the environmental costs related to achieving the aquifer’s sustainability, tariffs will have to increase to €0.54 per cubic meter to induce a reduction in water demand of 30 percent which will achieve the recharge of the aquifer. Irrigators will then sacUL¿FHSURSRUWLRQDOO\DOHVVHUDPRXQWRIWKHLULQFRPHJDLQVSHUFHQW +LJKHU resilience of subterranean water to drought makes this type of irrigation a more secure water source and, hence, a risk shelter for farmers willing to invest in modern irrigation technologies and cultivate market-oriented highly valueadded crops, like vegetables and grapes If farmers can adjust their cropping mix to reduce water consumption, it will be possible to attain the aquifer’s recharge target and comply with the WFD environmental requirements at tolerable social costs (Varela-Ortega and Blanco 2008). The Spanish water policies One of the most interesting features of current water policies in Spain is the elaboration of legal provisions that have permitted the revision of water FRQFHVVLRQULJKWVDQGPDNLQJWUDQVIHUVPRUHÀH[LEOH7KHVHFKDQJHVZHUHPDGH possible by the reform of the 1985 Water Act, approved in 1999. Tailored to the VSHFL¿F SUREOHPV UHODWHG WR ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ DQG FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU ZDWHU resources, several RBs have established water exchange contracts, public tenders for purchasing water rights, and water rights exchange centers. Irrigators have been the main actors in exchanging water rights, mostly interbasin exchanges, transferring volumes from the central basins toward the southeastern waterscarce areas (Segura basin) (Garrido and Varela-Ortega 2007). Irrigation agriculture in the water-scarce southern regions, which is much less dependent on policy support than the central inland regions, is largely market-oriented and SUR¿WDEOH,WFRXOGEHH[SHFWHGWKHQWKDWZDWHUZLOOÀRZWRWKHVHDUHDVDVORQJDV LW FRQWLQXHV WR EH SUR¿WDEOH IRU WKH H[SRUWLQJ FHQWUDO UHJLRQV *DUULGR DQG Varela-Ortega 2007). Although it is still early to evaluate all the consequences

Per ha

Per ha & Vol

Per ha & Vol

Per ha & vol

Per ha & Vol

Per ha & Vol

Duero

Duero

Guadalquivir

Guadalquivir

Guadalquivir

Type

Current tariff

Duero

Basin

0.01

0.01–0.05

0.01–0.05

0.01

0.01

0.01

Unit Tariff (€/m3)

0.05–0.07

0.12

0.1

0.06

0.1

0.06

–15–30%

–10–40%

–10–19%

–30–50%

–10–49%

–40–50%

–8 – 15%

–1–35%

0–10%

–10–15%

–5–50%

–27- 52%

New tariff Effects Ű Ű Full cost Farm income Water demand recovery tariff

Table 13.3 Effect of cost-recovery water tariffs in selected basins

*UHDWLQÀXHQFHRIFOLPDWH Mejías et al. (2004) variability (drought) Change in cropping pattern

Sumpsi et al. (1998)

Berbel et al. (2004)

*UHDWLQÀXHQFHRI agricultural policies Change in technologies and cropping pattern

Blanco I. and Varela-Ortega (2007)

Sumpsi et al. (1998)

Gómez-Limón and Riesgo (2004)

Source

Very Inelastic demand

Technological change

*UHDWLQÀXHQFHRI agricultural policies

Other

Ű

Per vol.

Per vol.

Per ha, Vol, hour

Per ha, Vol, hour

Guadiana (*)

Guadiana (*)

Júcar

Segura

0.05–0.30

0.03–0.15

0.03

0.03

0.01–0.05

0.25

0.15

0.08

0.06

0.09

–10–30%

–10–40%

–15–30%

–10–20%

Note * Includes environmental costs for aquifer recovery.

0 –10%

0 –40%

–35%

–30%

Iglesias et al. (2004)

Very Inelastic demand

Technological change

Sumpsi et al. (1998)

Sumpsi et al. (1998)

Changes in crop mix Esteve and VarelaNo change in technology Ortega (2008) Increase rain-fed

Changes in crop mix Varela-Ortega and Few technology changes Blanco (2008) +LJKUHVLOLHQFHWR drought

–16% to 35% –26% to –32% Change in techniques and crop mix

Source: Partially taken from Garrido and Calatrava (2010) and own elaboration.

Per ha & Vol

Guadalquivir

286 C. Varela-Ortega RIWKHVHH[FKDQJHVLWLVFOHDUWKDWWKH\SHUPLWDPRUHÀH[LEOHDGDSWDWLRQRIWKH irrigation sector to the evolution of water demands, to policy dynamics, and to agricultural productivity In the areas of overexploited aquifers, the basin authorities have resorted to public tenders for purchasing water rights, on a temporary (Segura and Júcar) or permanent (Guadiana) basis. The aim is to reduce water overpumping and restore the aquifers to their sustainable levels. In the case of the Guadiana basin, the established Water Rights Exchange Center for purchasing water rights from the irrigators is part of a more ambitious plan, the Special Plan of the Upper *XDGLDQD&+* 7KHSODQDLPVWRUHFRYHUWKHDTXLIHUDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHG valuable and internationally reputed wetlands of Las Tablas de Daimiel in the Ramsar catalogue and UNECO biosphere reserve (discussed in the section on Downscaling from Global Principles to Local Actions: A Comparative View of Polices for Water and Food). The plan establishes appropriate regulations and incentives to ensure societal transparency and the active participation of stakeholders. From its initial implementation, the plan has offered to the irrigators, in several publicly announced resolutions to purchase their rights permanently and WXUQWRUDLQIHGIDUPLQJ&+* +RZHYHUSULFHVRIIHUHGKDYHQRWDWWUDFWHG all the programmed sellers. Prices are being revised and volumes recovered are pending upon the following phases of the program. Nevertheless, these options offer a method for adapting to the requirements of the WFD and have clear synergies with it. The EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) The EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has determined, largely, the expansion of irrigation and water use in the irrigated farms throughout many southern countries in the EU. During the 1980s and 1990s, the productionFRXSOHG VXEVLGLHV RI WKH &$3 HQFRXUDJHG IDUP LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ DQG LUULJDWLRQ and had contradictory outcomes across regions and farm types. Positive economic and social outcomes came along with negative environmental impacts, especially to aquatic ecosystems (Baldock et al. 2000; Martínez-Santos et al. 2008; Varela-Ortega et al. 2010). Over time, CAP evolved to adapt to the World Trade Organization’s agreements and to include environmental protection standards into the programs. The reform of 1992 (McSharry reform) included an ambitious environmental program for nature protection. Agenda 2000 followed, and established a system of direct payments coupled with production for certain types of crops. It gave a further impulse to the environmental UHTXLUHPHQWVE\LQWURGXFLQJVSHFL¿FHQYLURQPHQWDOVWDQGDUGVLQWRWKHUHJLPHV that were a requisite for receiving the direct payments only on an optional basis. The CAP reform of 2003 (the so called ‘Luxembourg reform’), that was in force up to 2009 (EC 2003), has substituted the direct payments by a single farm payment (SFP) fully decoupled from production. In addition, it introduced a mandatory “cross compliance” scheme by which all farmers are required to

Water policies in Spain 287 FRPSO\ ZLWK VSHFL¿F HQYLURQPHQWDO UHJXODWLRQV DPRQJ RWKHUV WR UHFHLYH WKH CAP subsidies (for cereals, oilseed, protein crops, olives) (EC 2004). These regulations relate to soil-conservation tillage operations, use of fertilizers and FKHPLFDOVDQGSURWHFWLRQRIÀRUDDQGIDXQD The new reform of the CAP, the CAP health check, that was enacted in 2009 and is currently in force (EC 2009), is a step further into integrating agricultural SROLFLHVDQGQDWXUHSURWHFWLRQ,WVLPSOL¿HVWKH6)3LQWRDUHJLRQEDVHGSD\PHQW removes land set-aside obligations, strengthens environmental protection under FURVVFRPSOLDQFH PHDVXUHV DQG VLPSOL¿HV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKHVH PHDVXUHV ,W DOVR IDFHV WKH QHZ FKDOOHQJHV RI LQFOXGLQJ LQWR WKHVH PHDVXUHV HI¿FLHQW ZDWHU management to protect watercourses and climate change adaptation measures are LQFOXGHG DV SDUW RI WKH UXUDO GHYHORSPHQW SURJUDP )RU WKH ¿UVW WLPH WKH QHZ &$3UHIRUPKDVDVSHFL¿FZDWHUUHTXLUHPHQWWKDWOLQNVIXUWKHUDJULFXOWXUDOSROicies and water policies. Figure 13.14 summarizes the CAP cross-compliance structure (in its new 2009 version) and shows the different types of directives and regulations that farmers have to respect. The policy matrix shown in Table 13.6, on pages 298–300, summarizes the characteristics of each of the CAP programs and their environmental, and societal effects, as well as the water policies. The water dimension in the Spanish Common Agricultural Policy The EU legislation of the current 2009 CAP has been transposed into the Spanish OHJLVODWLRQ 0$50 WR DGDSW LW WR WKH VSHFL¿FLWLHV RI 6SDLQ¶V DJULFXOWXUH

Figure 13.14 The CAP Cross Compliance structure (CAP reform of 2009) (source: own elaboration based and updated from Varela-Ortega 2007 and MARM 2009).

288 C. Varela-Ortega and rural areas. The national statutes specify the principal environmental problems that affect Spain’s rural environment, such as soil erosion, lack of RUJDQLFPDWWHU¿UHVHPLVVLRQVRISROOXWDQWVDQGZDWHUDYDLODELOLW\,QWKHFDVH of water, Spain was the only country in the EU that had established already in WKH YHUVLRQ RI WKH &$3 VSHFL¿F OHJDO SURYLVLRQV IRU FRQVHUYLQJ ZDWHU resources. This normative relates to the protection of groundwater in areas of overexploited aquifers, and it was included in the cross compliance requirements to “avoid deterioration of habitats” of the code of “good agricultural and environmental conditions (GAECs)” (see Figure 13.14). All farmers of these zones have to comply with this regulation to receive the CAP payments. The regulation states that all irrigators must have a legal water permit issued by the water DGPLQLVWUDWLRQDQGPDLQWDLQPHWHUVLQVWDOOHGLQWKHLUZHOOV+RZHYHUWKLVFURVV compliance requisite does not specify the maximum volume of water that the irrigator is allowed to abstract. This is the competence of the water administration and not of the agriculture administration. In spite of the necessity of coordinating administrative competences, this “water dimension” of the Spanish version of the CAP, that was already applied in Spain in 2004, is a clear step further into the coordination at regional and local scales of both types of polLFLHV DQG WKH QHFHVVLW\ WR ¿QG SURSHU V\QHUJLHV EHWZHHQ WKHP )ROORZLQJ WKLV OLQHWKHQHZO\UHIRUPHG&$3KDVLQFOXGHGVSHFL¿FZDWHUSURWHFWLRQDQG management provisions into the cross-compliance scheme that are mandatory for all member states in the EU.

Figure 13.15 Overexploited aquifers in Spain (Source: MMA (2004)).

Water policies in Spain 289 The effects on the agriculture and environment sectors of the CAP decoupled payments and the cross-compliance regulations are still being evaluated in the EU member states. In general, several studies have argued that these environmentally concerned programs have contributed to better enforcing the existing nature protection regulations across the EU (Brouwer et al. +RZHYHURQ D ORFDO OHYHO IDUPHUV ¿QG GLI¿FXOWLHV LQ IDFLQJ DQG DSSO\LQJ DOO WKHVH UHTXLUHments. Also, the enforcement, control, and follow-up of too many measures entail large public costs for the regional administrations that are responsible for WKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHVHSURJUDPV,Q6SDLQDFFRUGLQJWRRI¿FLDO¿JXUHVIRU the national average, the degree of compliance with these regulations is relatively high (90 percent in most of the conditions). Complying with the limitations in the application of nitrate fertilizers (established in the EU Nitrates Directive) seems to have a lesser degree of compliance (MARM 2010). Yet, in Spain, nitrate vulnerable zones coincide, largely, with the areas of overexploited aquifers, thus the “water dimension” of the Spanish CAP is a valid instrument IRUSURWHFWLQJVXEWHUUDQHDQZDWHUVDQGQLWUDWHFRQWDPLQDWLRQ+RZHYHULQDUHDV that suffer both problems, such as the Upper Guadiana basin in Castilla-La Mancha, the binding factor for agricultural production is water much more than nitrate fertilization (Esteve and Varela-Ortega 2008). Can the EU agricultural policy reforms contribute to water savings? The environmental requirements of the CAP seek to promote a multifunctional environmentally oriented sustainable agriculture. Its effects have been studied by

Legend Boundaries of river basins Obstacles to water Administrative boundaries Autonomous community Province Vulnerable zones First declaration Later declaration Declaration in study or course

0

50 100

200

Figure 13.16 Nitrate-vulnerable zones in Spain (source: MMA 2004).

300

400 km

290 C. Varela-Ortega several authors who have argued on the potential of these policy instruments to attain the dual objective of agricultural production and water resources conservation in irrigated agriculture (Swinbank and Tranter 2005; Bartley et al.2007; Brouwer et al. 2007; Varela-Ortega 2007). For analyzing the effects of the decoupling of the CAP payment and the introduction of the single farm payment, we have compared the distribution of irrigated crops in a pre-reform year (2004) and post-reform year (2006) that is shown in Figure 13.17. We can observe that in the national aggregate, the new decoupled 6)3 LQGXFHV IDUP H[WHQVL¿FDWLRQ LQ LUULJDWLRQ DJULFXOWXUH ,W SURGXFHV D FURS VKLIW away from intensively irrigated crops, such as maize and legumes, in favor of other low water-consumption crops, such as winter cereals. Maize has lost its comparative DGYDQWDJHDVLWQRORQJHUEHQH¿WVIURPWKHKLJKHU\LHOGEDVHGVXEVLGLHVRIWKHSUHYLous CAP programs. Land cropped for maize has diminished by 22 percent in national average, in parallel with a 13 percent increase in winter cereals. These are low water-demanding crops that have an equivalent subsidy under the new CAP. In parallel, there is a sharp increase in lands used for olives (also under CAP subsidies) and grapes (not a CAP crop), 18 and 16 percent, respectively. The expansion of WKHVH FURSV UHVSRQGV WR WKH KLJKHU SUR¿WV REWDLQHG LQ VSHFLDOL]HG IDUPLQJ ZHOO adapted to modern-technology drip irrigation and market opportunities. In Spain, regional differences are large and the effect of the CAP reform varies VLJQL¿FDQWO\ DV &$3GHSHQGHQW FURSV DUH JURZQ SUHGRPLQDQWO\ LQ WKH FHQWUDO inland areas and in Andalucía. Figure 13.18 shows the results for two selected regions in Spain that represent different types of agricultural systems. Andalucía, in the Mediterranean south, grows a variety of crops, and Aragón, in the inland center, with a much-limited cropping potential, grows predominantly continental CAPsupported crops. In both regions, the maize cropping land is reduced above the QDWLRQDODJJUHJDWHSHUFHQWLQ$QGDOXFtDDQGSHUFHQWLQ$UDJyQ +RZHYHU in Andalucia, reduction in maize compensates for the sharp increase in grapes (45

Spain – irrigated crops 600 500 400 2004 2006

300 200 100 Olives

Vines

Fruit trees

Citrus

Horticulture

Forage crops

Industrial crops

Tuber crops

Legumes

Maize

Winter cereal

0

Figure 13.17 Effects of the CAP reform on irrigated crop distribution in Spain (2004–2006) (source: own elaboration, data from MAPA 2007b).

Water policies in Spain 291 percent) and olives (15 percent), well-adapted, market-oriented crops. Irrigated olive groves in Andalucía reach nearly half a million hectares (of the 1.5 million WRWDO DVWKLVUHJLRQLVWKHPDLQROLYHSURGXFHUZRUOGZLGH+RZHYHUWKHFURSVKLIW towards winter cereals is more acute in Aragón (24 percent), which is more dependHQWRQ&$3VXEVLGLHVDQGZLWKOHVVFURSSLQJÀH[LELOLW\WKDQ$QGDOXFtD Table 13.4 shows the distribution of direct payments of the CAP in the two VHOHFWHG\HDUV3HUFHQWDJH¿JXUHVGRQRWYDU\PXFKZKHQSDVVLQJIURPWKH coupled payments to the 2006 decoupled Single Farm Payment. Total CAP payments in Spain are about €5,000 million annually, and 92 percent of this amount is directed towards the central regions of Castilla La Mancha, Castilla y León, Aragón, Extremadura, and the southern more varied Andalucía (which receives a top 34 percent). On the contrary, the Mediterranean southern regions, such as 9DOHQFLDDQG0XUFLDJURZPDUNHWRULHQWHGSUR¿WDEOHIUXLWVDQGYHJHWDEOHVLQD dynamic farming setting with no subsidies from the CAP. +RZHYHUWRZKDWH[WHQWWKHVHFURSFKDQJHVFDQEHWUDQVODWHGLQWRDUHGXFWLRQ in irrigated lands and water use, and promoting rain-fed farming, is not fully Andalucía – irrigated crops 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Olives

Vines

Fruit trees

Citrus

Horticulture

Forage crops

Industrial crops

Tuber crops

Legumes

Maize

Winter cereal

2004 2006

Aragón – irrigated crops 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Olives

Vines

Fruit trees

Citrus

Horticulture

Forage crops

Industrial crops

Tuber crops

Legumes

Maize

Winter cereal

2004 2006

Figure 13.18 Effects of the CAP reform in crop distribution in two Spanish regions (Andalucía and Aragón) (2004–2006) (source: own elaboration, data from MAPA 2007b).

31 8 1 0 4 0 13 19 5 1 11 2 1 0 2 1 1 100

4,300,449

(%)

1,314,878 326,451 33,087 18,685 187,177 19,541 572,926 811,011 214,200 57,294 73,550 474,413 37,603 21,242 78,973 33,636 25,782

Total (× 1,000 €)

Direct payments 2004

1,361,964 436,065 57,611 27,769 67,337 24,642 605,448 934,330 161,203 84,151 520,935 177,063 34,580 77,316 99,456 22,116 32,587 33,489 1,673 4,759,735

Total (× 1,000 €)

Direct payments 2006 Ű 29 9 1 1 1 1 13 20 3 2 11 4 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 100

(%)

Ű

2,197,422

746,075 253,572 19,258 11,093 0 0 327,959 514,124 0 0 175,795 85,605 0 0 56,775 0 7,166

Total (× 1,000 €)

Single farm payment 2006

100

34 12 1 1 0 0 15 23 0 0 8 4 0 0 3 0 0

(%)

Notes )(*$)RQGRHVSDxROGHJDUDQWtDDJUDULD6SDQLVKRI¿FLDO&$3FURVVFRPSOLDQFHFRRUGLQDWLQJDJHQF\ 2 FROM: Fondo de Regulación y Organización del Mercado de los Productos de la Pesca y Cultivos Marinos (fund in charge of the regulation and organization of PDUNHWVIRU¿VKDQGPDULQHSURGXFWV

Source: own elaboration based on data of FEGA-MAPA (2005, 2007).

Andalucía Aragón Asturias Baleares Canarias Cantabria Castilla La Mancha Castilla y León Cataluña C. Valenciana Extremadura Galicia Madrid R. Murcia Navarra País Vasco La Rioja FEGA1 FROM2 Total Spain

Autonomous community

Table 13.4 CAP: Direct payments (2004 and 2006) and Single Farm Payment (2006)

Water policies in Spain 293 Table 13.5 Irrigated surface and water use in pre and post CAP reform years Selected Regions

Irrigated surface (ha) 2004

2006

Water used in crops (Mm3) Ű % variation 2004 2006 % variation

Andalucía 935,368 954,122 2 Aragón 556,370 535,964 –4 Castilla-La Mancha 557,108 581,598 4 Castilla y León 631,237 599,592 –5 Extremadura 281,451 280,373 0 Total Spain 3,020,714 3,043,219 1

3,126 1,489 1,167 1,575 887 9,972

3,145 1,352 1,201 1,512 857 9,584

1 –9 3 –4 –3 –4

Source: Own elaboration based on data from MAPA 2007b. Note Estimations using average water use in crops (MMA 2007b).

explored. Water savings in the CAP-subsidized crops are compensated with the increase in irrigated lands for olives, grapes, and fruits and vegetables. Table 13.5 shows that, as irrigated lands remain stable at a national level, water is UHGXFHGE\DPHUHSHUFHQW+RZHYHUWKHVHUHVXOWVDUHEDVHGRQDYHUDJHFURS water use and are subject to substantial annual variations due to changes in precipitation and temperature (in accordance with the results of the work of Aldaya et al. (2010) and Garrido et al. (2010) for virtual blue water and the water foot print in the agricultural sector in different climatic years). Irrigation modernization and water saving: The National Irrigation Plan The Spanish National Irrigation Plan (NIP) (2002–2008) (MAPA 2002, 2006) was established in the context of the recent trends of EU water polices and agricultural polices facing the challenge of attaining a balanced and sustainable integration of agriculture and environment sectors. The NIP is based on Spain’s IWRM and responds to the need to consolidate a new and modern irrigation policy with the active participation of the irrigation associations. The policy integrates environmental, economic, and social objectives, and looks for multifunctional and competitive irrigation agriculture. The basic cornerstone is the modernization of the existing irrigation schemes to achieve total water savings of 1,300 million m3. Covering a surface of 1.3 million hectares (about a 40 percent of all the nation’s irrigated lands), the plan aims also to guarantee water demand to irrigators to reduce the impact of climate variability, mitigate drought HIIHFWVLQFUHDVHIDUPFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVDQGFURSGLYHUVL¿FDWLRQHQFRXUDJHH[SDQsion of irrigation-related industries and services, employment opportunities, and promote population stability. Complementary ecological measures include a better soil use and reduction of contamination of riverbeds from agro-chemical UHVLGXHV,QDGGLWLRQLUULJDWRUVZHUHJLYHQ¿QDQFLDOLQFHQWLYHVWRDGRSWRQIDUP modern irrigation technologies in the newly rehabilitated networks. The NIP

294 C. Varela-Ortega

1,400

(a)

1,377

1,200

Total Modernization New irrigation of which: current projects of which: social irrigation of which: private irrigation

1,134

1000 ha

1,000 800 600 400 242 138

200

86

0 (b)

6,000 5,000

18

Total Modernization New irrigation of which: current projects of which: social irrigation of which: private irrigation

5,025

Million C

4,000 3,000

3,056

2,000 1,137 1,000

682 124

0

26

Figure 13.19 Spain’s National Irrigation Plan (2002–2008) (a) area by type of project (thousands of hectares), (b) budget by type of project (million euro) (source: own elaboration, data from MAPA 2002 and MAPA 2006).

WRWDOEXGJHWRI¼PLOOLRQLV¿QDQFHGE\SXEOLFIXQGVWKDWFRYHUSHUFHQW of the total project costs. The largest share goes to modernization of existing networks (80 percent of the surface, and 65 percent of the total budget) (see Figure 3.19). The other 50 percent of the project’s cost is paid partially by EU funds DQGE\WKHLUULJDWRUV7KH(8¿QDQFHVSHUFHQWIRUORZLQFRPHDUHDVDQG percent for the rest. Irrigators pay the remaining part, that is, 26 percent in lowincome areas and 33 percent in the other areas, distributed over a 50-year amortization period (MAPA 2002 and MAPA 2006). For the purpose of putting into operation the modernization programs of the NIP, the Spanish administration established in 1998 four public irrigation modernization agencies: SEIASA (Sociedades Estatales de Infraestructuras Agrarias) throughout the national territory. Under the denomination of North, North-East, Central-South, and South-East, these newly created agencies cover all irrigation zones in Spain and affect nearly half of all the irrigation communit-

Water policies in Spain 295 ies in the country (up to 2,500). The purpose of these agencies is to develop modernization programs and carry out the infrastructure works and construction WDLORUHG WR WKH VSHFL¿F QHHGV RI WKH SDUWLFXODU LUULJDWLRQ ]RQHV DQG LUULJDWLRQ communities willing to join the program. Up to the end of 2005, the NIP had implemented a large proportion of the proMHFWHGSURMHFWVDQGE\WKHHQGRIPRVWRIWKHSURJUDPPHGZRUNZDV¿QDOized. These are concentrated largely in the central south irrigation zones where gravity irrigation was extensive. The south-eastern zones of the Mediterranean littoral have achieved the modernization of nearly half a million hectares with rather limited funds, as this area had invested already in modern irrigation developments. The average investment for modernization projects covered by the four public DJHQFLHV UDQJH EHWZHHQ ¼ DQG ¼ SHU KHFWDUH TXLWH D KLJK ¿JXUH IRU international standards, but the irrigation infrastructure installed in most of the irrigation communities are sophisticated pressurized and computer-centralized irrigation systems. The NIP will be further analyzed in the next section. Pathways for integrating policies for sustainable use of water resources In 2006, under severe drought pressures, the irrigation plan had a new impulse that implied a reorientation and a complement of the precedent plan. The water DQGDJULFXOWXUDODGPLQLVWUDWLRQVHQDFWHGMRLQWO\IRUWKH¿UVWWLPHDVSHFLDOXUJHQW action plan for irrigation modernization with the aim of adapting the NIP to the objectives of the WFD (MAPA 2006). The new plan established new ecosystemRULHQWHG REMHFWLYHV PDWFKLQJ WKRVH RI WKH :)' IRU DFKLHYLQJ DQ HI¿FLHQW DQG sustainable use of water resources, recover overexploited aquifers, and avoid the contamination of watercourses. With a clear technological vision, the basis of the new action plan is the installation of modern localized water-saving irrigation technologies, the amelioration of the drainage networks, and the improvement of the buffering and regulation capacity in the system to halt excessive water use. With an overall budget of €1,200 million, shared between the environment and agriculture administrations (recently merged into a unique department), the irrigation modernization new action plan affects an area of 870,000 ha and water savings are projected to reach annually 1,200 million m3 (MAPA 2006; MMA 2007a). Within its technological scope, the new plan has also taken into consideration the recent CAP environmental requirements of nature and ecosystems protection by integrating further water management and agriculture. Thus, the NIP action plan is, in its conception, a new impulse for linking agricultural policies and water policies. Nevertheless, and in spite of all efforts and WKH VRFLRHFRQRPLF EHQH¿WV WR WKH UXUDO DUHDV LW UHPDLQV TXHVWLRQDEOH LI WKH technology-based NIP (including its new impulse) will ultimately attain the programmed water savings. As technological investments have been achieved to install pressurized irrigation in 65 percent of all irrigated lands and localized equipment in 45 percent of the surface, water continues to be priced by surface in close to 80 percent of all systems. Volumetric pricing is not largely used, in

296 C. Varela-Ortega spite of the technical capacity to measure consumption. Technological modernization has not come along with ad hoc institutional reforms that will induce softpath water savings. These are instruments like water tariffs, quotas, revision of JUDQWHG ZDWHU DOORWPHQWV DQG ZDWHU ULJKWV H[FKDQJHV ,QFUHDVLQJ WHFKQLFDO HI¿ciency will not produce, per se, water savings, as it has been amply discussed in the literature and in real examples. In fact, reduction in conveyance losses can LQFUHDVHRQIDUPZDWHUXVHDQGGLPLQLVKUHWXUQÀRZV7KLVFDQKDYHGHWULPHQWDO effects to the surrounding water ecosystems, as has been the case in some areas. 7REHQH¿WIURPWKHZDWHUVDYLQJSRWHQWLDORIWKH1,3ZLOOUHTXLUHFRPSOHPHQWLQJ the technological modernization program with some advances in making more ÀH[LEOHWKHZDWHUFRQFHVVLRQV7KHUHLVDOUHDG\VRPHH[SHULHQFHLQ6SDLQRIWKHVH types of measures under the legal provisions of the reformed 1985 Water Act of 1999, as discussed in the section The Spanish Water Policies, above. Along these lines, to reinforce compatibility with EU water and agricultural policies, the Ministry of Agriculture enacted in 2007 a new law for the sustainable development of the rural environment (MAPA 2007a). In relation to water UHVRXUFHVWKHODZHVWDEOLVKHVSURJUDPPHDVXUHVWRUHVSHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOÀRZV and recovery of overexploited aquifers, in accordance with the principles and objectives of “good ecological status of all water bodies” of the WFD. In the same spirit, the law reinforces the use of economic instruments for the purchase of water rights (temporary or permanent). In this case, the law shares the same approach of the recent legal provisions launched by several river basin authorities that have established public tenders for purchasing water rights (OPAS, in the Spanish denomination), and a water rights exchange center in the Guadiana basin. We can see then that there is a clear impulse to integrate EU policies and national policies in the domain of water resources management and to match action plans of the water and agricultural administrations in Spain. Downscaling from global principles to local actions: A comparative view of polices for water and food Following the previous sections, the policy matrix shown in Table 13.6 summarizes water policies and agricultural policies at European, national, and regional levels. Policies are characterized by their objectives, instruments, environmental effects, and societal effects, that include current and projected impacts to the private sector (farm income) and to the public sector (enforcement capacity and cost-effectiveness). Water policies are divided into general, such as the EU :)'DQGUHJLRQVSHFL¿F6SDQLVKZDWHUSROLFLHV/LNHZLVHDJULFXOWXUDOSROLFLHV are divided into the general CAP programs, in its subsequent reforms (explained in the pervious section), and selected regional programs that are water-related. The general water and agricultural policies have been already discussed in preYLRXVVHFWLRQV+HUHZHFRQFHQWUDWHRQGLVFXVVLQJWKHUHJLRQVSHFL¿FZDWHUDQG DJULFXOWXUDOSROLFLHV7KHVHDUHVHOHFWHGIRUWKHLUZDWHUREMHFWLYHVWKDWLVVSHFL¿F agri-environmental programs of the CAP, designed and applied to conserve water UHVRXUFHVDQGVROYHZDWHUUHODWHGFRQÀLFWVLQVSHFL¿FDUHDV7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLV

Water policies in Spain 297 discussion is to underline the importance of downscaling the global principles of ZDWHU DQG DJULFXOWXUDO SROLFLHV WR DGGUHVV VSHFL¿F UHJLRQDO ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW problems and how actions are taken to tackle theses problems. The regional case study: the dilemma between water-based human development and wetland protection To illustrate regional polices, we have chosen as a case study a groundwater irrigated area in the central region of Castilla-La Mancha, in which European and regional policies have converged around water management problems. This area, in the western La Mancha aquifer of the Guadiana basin, is an emblematic example of ZDWHUUHODWHGFRQÀLFWVSUHVLGHGE\WKHFODVKEHWZHHQLUULJDWLRQEDVHGHFRQRPLFDQG social development, and wetland protection. In this area, the expansion of irrigation over the years has a clear policy-driven component. Following Spain’s entry into the EU in 1986, CAP programs based on production-related subsidies encouraged irrigation expansion in the area. This led to positive economic and social effects, notably securing an irrigation-based economy in a once-stagnated area, and rural population stability. Irrigation was the main driver for prosperity and contributed to offset, largely, the region’s endemic drought problems (Llamas and Martínez-Santos 2005; Garrido et al. 2006; Varela-Ortega et al. 2010). Excessive groundwater mining also led to the overexploitation of the western La Mancha aquifer and to the subsequent degradation of the associated wetland ecosystem of Las Tablas de Daimiel, an internationally reputed Ramsar wetland and UNESCO Biosphere reserve (Llamas and Martínez-Santos 2006). As the situation worsened, unlicensed wells expanded and annual water abstractions exceeded greatly the aquifer’s natural recharge (550 to 230 millionm3 DQG WKH DTXLIHU ZDV RI¿FLDOO\ GHFODUHG RYHUH[ploited in 1991 (MMA 2000). :LWKWKHDLPRI¿QGLQJDUHPHG\WRWKLVHFRORJLFDOLPSDFWWZRSROLFLHVZHUH put in place: a Spanish regional water policy and an EU policy. Both shared the same objective of restoring the overdrafted aquifer but applied two different instruments. The Guadiana River Basin Authority adopted a strict Water $EVWUDFWLRQ3ODQ:$3 &+* WKDWLPSRVHGZDWHUDEVWUDFWLRQTXRWDVWKDW reduced the entitled water volumes to the irrigators (from 4,200 m3/ha to about 2,000 m3/ha in average). Farmers strongly opposed the plan, social unrest mounted, and the RB authority was incapable of enforcing the policy due to the high social and enforcement costs implied. ,QSDUDOOHOWKH(8DSSOLHGLQDVSHFLDO¿YH\HDU&$3DJULHQYLURQPHQWDO program (AEP) in the area, following the CAP reform of 1992. The program’s objective was to recover the wetlands, thus converging with the objectives of water policies in the area. The AEP established reductions of water extractions and introduced income compensation payments to farmers that voluntarily chose to join the program to maintain the thriving agricultural activity in the area. The overwhelming PDMRULW\ RI IDUPHUV MRLQHG HQFRXUDJHG E\ WKH VHYHUH ¿YH\HDU GURXJKW 6RFLDO unrest diminished, irrigation surface decreased, and water abstractions were reduced to compatible levels with the aquifer’s recharge (JCC-LM 1999). The program was

5HGXFHZDWHU 6SDQLVK consumption :DWHU $TXLIHUVWDELOLW\ Abstraction :HWODQGUHFRYHU\ Plan of Castilla-La Mancha, 1991–present 6SDQLVK 5HGXFHLUULJDWHGODQGV 6SHFLDO3ODQIRU and water consumption the Upper $TXLIHUUHFKDUJHE\ Guadiana :HWODQGUHFRYHU\ ±

5HJLRQDO Water Policies

Societal effects

7UDQVSDUHQF\DQG $PHOLRUDWLRQRIWKH public participation ecological conditions of $FFRXQWDELOLW\DQGFRVW water courses /RZHUZDWHUXVHLQVRPH effectiveness assessment of policy areas measures ,QFUHDVHLQZDWHUXVH 0D\UHGXFHWKH HI¿FLHQF\ economic viability of :HWODQGSURWHFWLRQDQG certain irrigated farms recovery in southern EU

Environmental effects

)DUPLQFRPHORVV :DWHUTXRWDVHVWDEOLVKHG /HVVHIIHFWVWKDQ 6RFLDOXQUHVW for aquifer recovery are expected lower than original /RZHUZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ )DUPHUVRSSRVLWLRQ allotments 8VHRIPRGHUQLUULJDWLRQ /RZLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ rate &RPSXOVRU\ techniques +LJKHQIRUFHPHQWFRVWV ,QFUHDVHLQORZZDWHU demanding crops ([SHFWHG 3XUFKDVHRIZDWHUULJKWV ([SHFWHG )DUPLQFRPH :DWHU([FKDQJH&HQWHU $TXLIHUUHFKDUJH maintenance :HWODQGUHVWRUDWLRQ /HJDOL]DWLRQRILOOHJDO 6RFLDODQGHFRQRPLF 5HGXFWLRQLQLUULJDWHG wells stability surface &ORVLQJXSRILOOHJDO 5HVWRUHDTXDWLFÀRUDDQG +LJKSXEOLFFRVW wells fauna, biodiversity 5HIRUHVWDWLRQ 6XSSRUWUDLQIHGIDUPLQJ 5HGXFHFOLPDWHFKDQJH effects by forestation

*RRGHFRORJLFDOVWDWXVRI 5LYHU%DVLQ5% organization as all water courses management unit 6XVWDLQDEOHXVHRIZDWHU 3ODQQLQJDQGLQWHJUDWHG resources management of all water ,QWHJUDWHGZDWHU resources management &RVWUHFRYHU\RIZDWHU (FRQRPLFLQVWUXPHQWV Water pricing and services application of the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) 3URJUDPPHDVXUHVDQG RB plans in all basins

(8 :DWHU Framework Directive ±

*HQHUDO Water Policies

Policy instrument

Policy objective

Policy

Table 13.6 Water and Agricultural Policy Matrix

)DUPLQFRPHVWDELOLW\ 'LUHFWSD\PHQWVWLHGWR (QYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQ production

&$3 /X[HPERXUJ Reform 2003

0XOWLIXQFWLRQDODQG competitive agriculture )DUPLQFRPHVWDELOLW\ (QYLURQPHQWDO sustainability 5HLQIRUFHUXUDO development

6LQJOHIDUPSD\PHQW decoupled from production 3D\PHQWVUHGXFWLRQ modulation &URVVFRPSOLDQFH schemes: payments tied to environmental regulations &$3 (FRQRPLFVRFLDODQG 6LPSOL¿FDWLRQDQG 1HZUHIRUP environmental XQL¿FDWLRQRIWKH6LQJOH ³KHDOWKFKHFN´ sustainability Farm Payment 5HLQIRUFH 6LPSOLI\DQGUHLQIRUFH competitiveness of cross-compliance agriculture, markets and 'LUHFWSD\PHQWVFHLOLQJV agro-food industry 5HYLVLRQRILQWHUYHQWLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQ systems and biodiversity 5HLQIRUFHUXUDO 1HZFKDOOHQJHV development measures Adaptation to climate change, water management, production of biofuels

*HQHUDO &$3 Agricultural 5HIRUP Policies $JHQGD

,QFUHDVHLQIDUPLQFRPH ,QFUHDVHLQHPSOR\PHQW 6RFLRHFRQRPLF develop.

continued

'HFUHDVHLQSHUFHLYHG payments and farm income /DUJHUDSSOLFDWLRQRI rural development programs 5HJLRQDOVSHFL¿F programs and regional disparities 6KLIWWRZDUGVUHJLRQ 5HGXFWLRQRIODQGVHW VSHFL¿FUHJLRQDO aside development (RD) ,QFUHDVHGVXUIDFHIRU programs for a energy crops sustainable management ,QFUHDVHFRPSHWLWLYH of land, water and crops in world markets ecosystems ,QFUHDVHGHQYLURQPHQWDO 5'SURJUDPVIRU protection, natural management of risk resources conservation protection measures and biodiversity

+LJKZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ ,QFUHDVHLQLUULJDWHG surface 2YHUH[SORLWDWLRQRI aquifer /RVVRIZHWODQGV /RZHUZDWHUXVHLQVRPH regions ,QFUHDVHLQH[WHQVLYH productions and low water demand crops +LJKHUHQYLURQPHQWDO sustainability

$YRLGKDELWDWV 2EOLJDWLRQIRULUULJDWRUV deterioration to hold a legal water use $YRLGRYHUH[SORLWDWRLQ concession of aquifers and 2EOLJDWLRQWRLQVWDOO degradation of wetland water metering devices ecosystems 6WRSORVVRIELRGLYHUVLW\

:DWHUTXRWDVDUH¿[HG at a 50% and 100% reduction from quotas of the Spanish Water Abstraction Plan plus ,QFRPHFRPSHQVDWLRQ payments 9ROXQWDU\

(85HJLRQDO (8DQG1DWLRQDO3ROLFLHV $JUL are dependent Environmental 3URJUDPLVPRGXODWHG Program for and tied to the Spanish Water Water Abstraction Plan abstractions 5HGXFHZDWHU reduction (II) consumption and ± promote wetland recovery

(81DWLRQDO &$3FURVV compliance measures for overexploited aquifers ±SUHVHQW

:DWHUTXRWDVDUH¿[HGDW a 50%, 70% and 100% reduction from original water allotments plus ,QFRPHFRPSHQVDWLRQ payments 9ROXQWDU\

Policy instrument

(85HJLRQDO (8DQG1DWLRQDO3ROLF\ $JUL are independent Environmental 3URJUDPLVLQGHSHQGHQW Program for from the Spanish Water Water Abstraction Plan abstractions 5HGXFHZDWHU reduction (I) consumption and wetland ± recovery

Policy objective

Source: own elaboration based and updated from Varela-Ortega (2007)

6SHFL¿F Agricultural Policies related to water conservation

Policy

Table 13.6 continued Societal effects

/RZHUZDWHUFRQVXPSWLRQ /DUJHDGRSWLRQUDWHE\ 8VHRIPRGHUQLUULJDWLRQ farmers techniques &RPSHQVDWLRQ ,QFUHDVHLQORZZDWHU SD\PHQWVDUHVXI¿FLHQW demanding crops )DUPLQFRPHJDLQV 5HFRYHU\RIWKHDTXLIHU (PSOR\PHQWLQFUHDVH :HWODQGVDUHSDUWLDOO\ 6RFLDOVWDELOLW\ restored /RZHQIRUFHPHQWFRVWV +LJKSXEOLFFRVW /RZFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVV ,QFUHDVHLQORZZDWHU /RZDGRSWLRQE\ demanding crops farmers 1RUHFRYHU\RIWKH 1HZTXRWDVDUHWRRORZ aquifer due to low &RPSHQVDWLRQ implementation of the payments are not program VXI¿FLHQWWRDWWUDFW :HWODQGVDUHUHFKDUJHG farmers from water transfer from )DUPLQFRPHORVV the Tajo basin +LJKSXEOLFFRVWDQG low total water reduction (QFRXUDJHVUHGXFWLRQLQ ,QFUHDVHVDQGLPSURYHV water abstractions over control of water use permitted levels (QFRXUDJHV (indirectly though the coordination and CAP) synergies of water and ,QFUHDVHLQORZZDWHU agricultural policies intensive crops (CAP, WFD) and ,QFUHDVHLQLUULJDWLRQ administration HI¿FLHQF\DQGUHGXFHG )DUPLQFRPHPD\EH water losses reduced

Environmental effects

Water policies in Spain 301 H[WHQGHGE\DQRWKHU¿YH\HDUVXSWREXWLWVPDLQGUDZEDFNVZHUHWKHKLJK public costs implied and its low cost-effectiveness (Iglesias 2002; Varela-Ortega et al. 2002; Blanco-Gutierrez et al. 2010). This contradicts the principle of costHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKH:)',QWKHSURJUDPZDVGUDVWLFDOO\PRGL¿HGWRUHVSRQG to the new CAP policy requirements of environmental protection and to the WFD that had been recently enacted. Water use limitations were now calculated, based on WKH H[LVWLQJ TXRWDV RI WKH 6SDQLVK SODQ DQG IRU WKH ¿UVW WLPH WKH (8 DJUL environmental program was tied to the Spanish Water Plan. As water use volumes were much lower and income compensation was also decreased (modulated according to farm size), the 2003 AEP was only joined by a few farmers, covered a reduced surface, and the aquifer continued to be over its sustainability level. The coupling of the two water and water-related agricultural policies (the 6SDQLVK:$3DQGWKH(8$(3 UHÀHFWHGWKH(8:)'DQGWKH&$3REMHFWLYHV Based on this, the RBA in the Guadiana has newly approved a Special Plan for WKH 8SSHU *DXGLDQD 638* 3($* 3ODQ HVSHFLDO GHO $OWR *XDGLDQD &+* 2007) that aims to limit water abstractions to recover the wetlands in a long-term perspective (to 2027). The plan is ambitious (around €5,000 million) and includes various types of measures also strengthening public participation. The key measure is the establishment of a Water Rights Exchange Center for purchasing water rights from the irrigators, together with a social restructuring plan that includes the legalization of illegal wells, the closing-up of unlicensed wells, a reforestation plan, and the support of extensive rain-fed farming. It is too soon to evaluate the results of the SPUG as public tenders for purchasing water rights from the irrigators are in progress (but an overall long term assessment for alternative climate scenarios can be found in Varela-Ortega et al. 2010). Responsiveness of the irrigators to prices offered (that range from €3,000 to €10,000 per hectare) is key for the success of the plan. Recent research studies have evaluated that the SPUG objectives to recover the exhausted aquifer to 2027 will be attained only if there are enough farmers willing to sell their rights at the prices RIIHUHGWRPDWFKWKHSODQ¶VYROXPHREMHFWLYHV7KLVZLOOEHPRUHGLI¿FXOWLQWKH case of drought (Varela-Ortega et al. 2010). Success is not assured, but the plan RIIHUVDJRRGSURVSHFWIRUDPRUHÀH[LEOHZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDQGIRUDGDSWLQJWR the new policy setting in the EU. Clearly enough, agricultural policies and water policies, both EU and regional, share the common objective of natural resources conservation. The newly reformed CAP (the CAP “health check”) takes a step IRUZDUGE\LQFOXGLQJZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWDVDVSHFL¿FUHTXLUHPHQWVLQLWVIXWXUH programs. Then, for the Guadiana basin, the coordination of both types of policies will contribute for adapting to the new forms of water management.

Conclusions: balancing the trade-offs between water for food and water for nature ,QWKLVVHFWLRQZHSUHVHQWVRPHFRQFOXGLQJUHÀHFWLRQVEDVHGRQWKHDUJXPHQWVRI WKH SUHFHGHQW VHFWLRQV DQG DURXQG WKH IROORZLQJ EDVLF LQTXLU\ +RZ FDQ WKH Spanish irrigation sector adapt to the new water and agricultural policies and to the

302 C. Varela-Ortega environmental and societal challenges for better balancing the trade-offs between water for food and water for nature? European and national policy objectives Water policies and agricultural policies are major drivers for irrigation and water use evolution in Spain. Spain’s water problems are much like other arid countries in the Mediterranean with clear regional imbalances in water availability. Yet, water polices, like the Water Framework Directive designed in (XURSH DUH FOHDUO\ TXDOLW\GULYHQ 6SDLQ KDV DQ DGGHG GLI¿FXOW\ WR DGMXVW WR these policies. Trying to match the national objective of assuring water services to all users and complying with the WFD requirements of “good ecological status of all waters” is a major task for river basin authorities. It is not an easy job. The public participation programs required by the WFD and the active involvement of stakeholders are key for a successful implementation of these policies. This process has begun and has to be continued effectively. Supply and demand instruments The Spanish irrigation sector has evolved progressively during the last decades to adjust to policy-driven requirements, market forces, and territorial balances. Spain’s agro-climatic conditions have historically conditioned a supply-oriented water HFRQRP\DQGWKHLUULJDWLRQVHFWRUKDVEHQH¿WHGIURPDODUJHVWRUDJHDQGEXIIHULQJ capacity to mitigate climate variability. In spite of this, advances are clear in some EDVLQVVXSSRUWLQJQHZHIIRUWVWRPDNHPRUHÀH[LEOHWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIZDWHUDOORWments among farmers. These are exchanges of water rights or, in the case of overexploited aquifers, the public purchase of water rights for environmental purposes. Irrigators have participated directly in these exchanges undertaken at intra- and interbasin scales. These demand-side solutions will help the adaptation process to the new policy setting, largely presided by European water and agricultural policies. Regional perspective The EU water and agricultural policies are conceived globally but affect a diversity of territories and social environments. Adaptation to these policies comes about from actions taken at regional and local levels. Downscaling to the regions and local settings that share common water problems is essential. Some Spanish EDVLQV DUH DOUHDG\ ODXQFKLQJ UHJLRQVSHFL¿F SURJUDPV WR FRQVHUYH ZDWHU resources, protect aquatic ecosystems, and maintain the rural economy. The results are uncertain but political will, together with stakeholder involvement, are key for a successful implementation of these programs to legitimate the process, and balance environmental and social goals. The WFD has contributed to legitimize and facilitate the implementation of regional water conservation SROLFLHV HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ HQIRUFHPHQW LV GLI¿FXOW DQG KLJK VRFLDO FRVWV DUH involved (such as in the case of groundwater irrigation).

Water policies in Spain 303 Water institutions and public participation Water institutions in Spain are, in principle, well positioned to adjust to the new policy-setting and management modes. Technical capacities are large, and participatory processes and collaboration with the water users and other actors have evolved successfully in many basins, driven by the WFD elaboration of the 5% SODQV +RZHYHU VRPH 5%$V DUH PXFK PRUH DFWLYH WKDQ RWKHUV 7KH PRUH active RBs are moving ahead but in some others, increased transparency in data and information networks is still necessary. Societal awareness of water and environmental problems is increasing in Spain, and public participation, transparency, and accountability are demanding policy and society’s provisions. Irrigation modernization The national irrigation plan in Spain has increased water productivity through the nationwide irrigation modernization program. It has also contributed to diminish environmental pressures on water courses and has integrated into the LQIRUPDWLRQQHWZRUNVRIWKH5%$V+RZHYHUWKHGHULYHGZDWHUVDYLQJVDUHJHQerally channeled to guarantee water availability for irrigation and, to a lesser extent, to respond to the objective of the WFD of ecosystem protection. Technological development has not come along with the necessary institutional reform towards demand-management, like revision of water use rights, volumetric pricing, or water rights exchanges. Efforts should continue to approximate these two reforms in parallel. They could contribute to save water and reach the objectives of the WFD and policy cohesion. Agricultural policy and water The liberalization trend towards full decoupling of the CAP has not reduced the overall irrigated surface in Spain. It has produced a crop shift away from waterintensive crops, such as maize, in favor of other less water-dependent crops, such as winter cereals and, notably, olives and grapes. These two crops are well DGDSWHG WR PRGHUQ ORFDOL]HG LUULJDWLRQ LQ VSHFL¿F DUHDV DQG FDQ SUR¿W IURP PDUNHWRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGORFDOLQGXVWULHV+RZHYHURQDQDWLRQDOVFDOHWKHQHZ CAP has not reduced overall water use in Spain. Regional difference are large and some CAP-dependent cropping areas are more drastically affected (such as the inland regions of Spain). Although, the newly reformed CAP includes speFL¿FDOO\WKHSURWHFWLRQDQGPDQDJHPHQWRIZDWHULQWRLWVHQYLURQPHQWDOUHTXLUHments (cross-compliance programs), that can approximate further the CAP and WFD objectives of water resources conservation. Policy integration For countries in which irrigation is a key sector for the rural economies, a coordinated and integrated design and implementation of agricultural polices

304 C. Varela-Ortega and water polices is a key element. Policy cohesion will ensure the dual objective of conserving water resources and maintaining farm-based livelihoods at tolerable social costs. It will be best attained in an integrated, transparent VWDNHKROGHUSDUWLFLSDWRU\ PDQQHU DYRLGLQJ FRQWUDGLFWLRQV ¿QGLQJ V\QHUJLHV and reinforcing common objectives. This is the challenge facing the Spanish regional administrations in charge of the application of both national and EU water policies, as well as agricultural policies. The requirements of the WFD to reach “a good ecological status of all water bodies” in the EU with “public transparency and participation” is providing incentives to the regional and national administrations in Spain to better enforce water policies on a regional VFDOH 5XUDO DQG VRFLDO GHYHORSPHQW SURJUDPV WDUJHWHG WR VSHFL¿F DUHDV FDQ diminish economic and social burden. The water-related environmental requirements of the CAP are also helping to integrate common actions for regional agricultural and water administrations. The two administrations are actively collaborating in several regions and basins in Spain, but there is still progress ahead in many others. All these have to be better coordinated into a well-balanced policy structure for achieving successful water management policies.

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Water policies in Spain 305 Winsten, J. (2007) Cross-Compliance: Facilitating the CAP Reform: Compliance and Competitiveness of European Agriculture: Final Report - Spain, no. SSPECT-2005–006489, Brussels: European Commission, online, available at: www.crosscompliance-fp6.eu/content/documents/D5-SPAIN_FINAL.pdf. &+* &RQIHGHUDFLyQ +LGURJUi¿FD 'HO *XDGLDQD Régimen de explotación para el año 2007 de la Unidad Hidrogeológica de la Mancha Occidental y de un perímetro adicional de la Unidad Hidrogeológica de la sierra de Altomira&LXGDG5HDO&+* &+*&RQIHGHUDFLyQ+LGURJUi¿FDGHO*XDGLDQD Plan especial del Alto Guadiana, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. &+* &RQIHGHUDFLyQ +LGURJUi¿FD GHO *XDGLDQD Oferta pública de adquisición de derechos de uso del agua en la Cuenca Alta del Guadiana, Madrid: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Medio Rural y Marino. Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (2007) Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, London: Earthscan/Colombo: International Water Management Institute. De Fraiture, C. and Perry, C. (2002) Why is irrigation water demand inelastic at low price ranges? Paper presented at the International Conference: Irrigation Water Policies: Micro and Macro considerations (World Bank, FAO, IWMI), June 15–17, 2002, Agadir, Morocco: 465–482. EC (European Commission) (2000) Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2000 establishing a framework for community action LQ WKH ¿HOG RI ZDWHU SROLF\ 2I¿FLDO -RXUQDO RI WKH (XURSHDQ &RPPXQLWLHV L327, /X[HPERXUJ2I¿FHIRU2I¿FLDO3XEOLFDWLRQVRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ EC (European Commission) (2001) A Sustainable Europe for a Better world: A European Union strategy for sustainable development, Brussels: Commission of the European Communities, COM (2201) 264. EC (European Commission) (2003) Council Regulation (EC) No. 1782/2003 of 29 September 2003 establishing common rules for direct support schemes under the common agricultural policy and establishing certain support schemes for farmers, Luxembourg: 2I¿FHIRU2I¿FLDO3XEOLFDWLRQVRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ EC (European Commission) (2004) Commission Regulation (EC) No 796/2004 of 21 April 2004 laying down Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Cross-compliance, Modulation and the Integrated Administration and Control System Provided for in the Council Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003/X[HPERXUJ2I¿FHIRU2I¿FLDO3XEOLFDWLRQV of the European Union. EC (European Commission) (2009) Council Regulation (EC) No 73/2009 of 19 January 2009 establishing common rules for direct support schemes for farmers under the common agricultural policy and establishing certain support schemes for farmers, amending Regulations (EC) No 1290/2005, (EC) No 247/2006, (EC) No 378/2007, and repealing Regulation (EC) No 1782/2003, 2I¿FLDO -RXUQDO RI WKH (XURSHDQ 8QLRQ / 30, Luxembourg: 16–99. Esteve, P. and Varela-Ortega, C. (2008) Water conservation and agricultural policies: Synergies in the upper Guadiana (Spain), poster presented in the XIIth Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE) August 26–29, Ghent. FEGA-MAPA (2005) Informe de actividad 2004, Campaña 2003–2004, Fondo Español de Garantía Agraria, Madrid: Ministerio de Agricultura Pesca y Alimentación. FEGA-MAPA (2007) Informe de actividad 2006, Campaña 2005–2006, Fondo Español de Garantía Agraria, Madrid: Ministerio de Agricultura Pesca y Alimentación. Garrido, A. and Varela-Ortega, C. (2007) Economía del Agua en la Agricultura e

306 C. Varela-Ortega Integración de Políticas Sectoriales 3DQHO &LHQWt¿FR WpFQLFR GH VHJXLPLHQWR GH OD política de aguas, University of Seville and Ministry of the Environment, Seville, (January 2008). Garrido, A. and Calatrava, J. (2010) Trends in water pricing and markets, in A. Garrido and M.R. Llamas (eds.), Water Policy in Spain Resource Policy, London: Taylor and Francis: 131–144. Garrido, A., Martínez-Santos, P., and Llamas, M.R. (2006) Groundwater irrigation and its implications for water policy in semiarid countries: the Spanish experience, +\GURJHRORJ\-RXUQDO, 14(3): 340–349. Giordano, M. and Villholth, K.G. (eds.) (2007) The Agricultural Groundwater Revolution: Opportunities and Threats to Development, Wallingford: CABI Publication. Gomez-Limón, J.A. and Riesgo, L. (2004) Irrigation water pricing: Differential impacts on irrigated farms, Agricultural Economics, 31: 47–66. Iglesias, E. (2002) La gestión de las aguas subterráneas en el acuífero Mancha Occidental, Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales, 2: 69–88. Iglesias, E., Sumpsi, J.M., and Blanco, M. (2004) Environmental and Socioeconomic Effects on Water Pricing Policies: Key Issue in the Implementation of the Water Framework Directive, 13th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, Budapest, June 25–28. Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Flores, F., and Moneo, M. (2007) Challenges to manage risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean, Water Resources Management, 21(5): 775–788. JCC-LM (Junta de Castilla-La Mancha) (1999) Consejería de Agricultura y Medio Ambiente: Programa de compensación de las rentas agrarias en las Unidades Hidrogeológicas de Mancha Occidental y Campo de Montiel, Toledo: Comunidad de Castilla-La Mancha. Llamas, M.R. and Custodio, E. (2003) Intensive Use of Groundwater: Challenges and Opportunities, Lisse: Balkema Publishers. Llamas, M.R. and Garrido, A. (2007) Lessons from intensive groundwater use in Spain: (FRQRPLFDQGVRFLDOEHQH¿WVDQGFRQÀLFWVLQ0*LRUGDQRDQG.*9LOOKROWKHGV The Agricultural Groundwater Revolution: Opportunities and Threats to Development, Colombo: International Water Management Institute. Llamas, M.R. and Martínez-Santos, P. (2005) Intensive groundwater use: Silent revoluWLRQDQGSRWHQWLDOVRXUFHRIVRFLDOFRQÀLFW-RXUQDORI:DWHU5HVRXUFHV3ODQQLQJDQG Management, 131(5): 337–341. /ODPDV 05 DQG 0DUWtQH]6DQWRV 3 6LJQL¿FDQFH RI WKH VLOHQW UHYROXWLRQ RI intensive groundwater use in world water policy, in: P.P. Rogers, M.R. Llamas and L. Martinéz-Cortina (eds.), Water Crisis: Myth or Reality, Marcelino Botin Water Forum 2004. London: Taylor and Francis: 163–180. MAPA (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación) (2002) Real Decreto 329/ 2002, de 5 de abril, por el que se aprueba el Plan Nacional de Regadíos, BOE nº 101: 15558–15566, Madrid. MAPA (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación) (2006) Real Decreto 287/ 2006, de 10 de marzo, por el que se regulan las obras urgentes de mejora y consolidación de regadíos, BOE nº 60: 9848–9850, Madrid. MAPA (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación) (2007a) Ley 45/2007, de 13 de diciembre, para el uso sostenible del medio rural, BOE nº 299: 51339–51349, Madrid. MAPA (Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentación) (2007b) Anuario de Estadística Agroalimentaria, online, available at: www.mapa.es/es/estadistica/ pags/anuario/ introduccion.htm.

Water policies in Spain 307 Margat, J. (2004) Plan Bleu: L’eau des Méditerranéens, situation et perspectives, MAP (Mediterranean Action Plan) technical report series no. 158, Athens, online, available at: www.planbleu.org. MARM (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente Medio Rural y Marino) (2009) Real Decreto 486/2009, de 3 de abril, por el que se establecen los requisitos legales de gestión y las buenas condiciones agrarias y medioambientales, BOE nº 94: 35451–35457, Madrid. MARM (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente Medio Rural y Marino) (2010) 4º Informe sobre la aplicación de la condicionalidad en España, año 2008, Madrid: Fondo Español de Garantía Agraria. Martínez-Santos, P., De Stefano, L., Llamas, R., and Martínez-Alfaro, P.E. (2008) Wetland restoration in the Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain: A critical perspective on water, agricultural, and environmental policies, Restoration Ecology, 16(3): 511–521. 0DUWtQH]6DQWRV39DUHOD2UWHJD&DQG+HUQDQGH]0RUD1 Making Inroads towards Adaptive Water Management through Stakeholder Involvement: The NeWater Experience in the Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain, Proceedings of the International Conference on Adaptive and Integrated Water Management – Coping with complexity and uncertainty (CAIWA), November 12–16, Basel. Mejías, P., Varela-Ortega, C., and Flichman, G. (2004) Integrating agricultural policies and water policies under water supply and climate uncertainty, Water Resources Research, 40(7): W07S03. MMA (2000) El Libro Blanco del Agua, Madrid: Minsterio de Medio Ambiente. MMA (2005) Principales Conclusiones de la Evaluación Preliminar de los Impactos en España por Efecto del Cambio Climático 2¿FLQD (VSDxROD GHO &DPELR &OLPiWLFR Madrid: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. MMA (2007a) El Agua en la Economía Española: Situación y Perspectivas. Informe Integrado del análisis económico de los usos del agua: Artículo 5 y Anejos II y III de la Directiva Marco del Agua, Madrid: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. MMA (2007b) Precios y Costes de los Servicios de Agua en España: Informe Antegrado de Recuperación de Costes de los Servicios de Agua en España: Artículo 5 y Anejo III de la Directiva Marco de Agua, Madrid: Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. Perry, C., Rock, M., and Seckler, D. (1997) Water as an Economic Good: A solution, or a Problem? Research Report 14, Colombo: International Irrigation Management Institute(IWMI). Rosegrant, M., Cai, X., and Cline, S. (2002) World Water and Food to 2025: Dealing with Scarcity, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Shah, T., Burke, J., and Villholth, K. (2007) Groundwater: A global assessment of scale DQGVLJQL¿FDQFHLQWater for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, London: Earthscan/Colombo: International Water Management Institute: 396–423. Sumpsi, J.M., Garrido, A., Blanco, M., Varela-Ortega, C., and Iglesias, E. (1998) Ecomomía y política de gestión del agua en la agricultura, Madrid: Mundi-PrensaMAPA. Swinbank, A. and Tranter, R. (2005) Decoupling EU farm support: Does the new Single 3D\PHQW6FKHPH¿WZLWKLQWKHJUHHQER["7KH(VWH\&HQWHU-RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO Law and Trade Policy, 6(1): 47–61. Varela-Ortega, C. (2007) Policy-driven determinants of irrigation development and environmental sustainability: a case study in Spain, in F. Molle and J. Berkoff (eds.), Irrigation Water Pricing Policy: Exploring the Gap between Theory and Practice, Wallingford: CABI Press: 328–346.

308 C. Varela-Ortega Varela-Ortega C. and Blanco, I. (2008) Adaptive Capacity and Stakeholders’ Participation Facing Water Policies and Agricultural Policies, Proceedings of the XIIth International Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists (EAAE), Ghent, August 26–29. 9DUHOD2UWHJD&DQG+HUQDQGH]0RUD1 ,QVWLWXWLRQVDQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOUHIRUPLQ the Spanish water sector: A historical perspective, in A. Garrido and R. Llamas (eds.), Water Policy in Spain, London: Taylor and Francis: 117–130. Varela-Ortega, C. and Sagardoy, J.A. (2003) Analysis of irrigation water policies in Syria: current developments and future options, in C. Fiorillo and J. Vercueil (eds.), Syrian Agriculture at the Crossroads, FAO series APED (Agriculture Policy and Economic Development) 8, Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), pp. 335–359. 9DUHOD2UWHJD&%ODQFR*XWLpUUH],6ZDUW]+&DQG'RZQLQJ7( %DODQFing groundwater conservation and rural livelihoods under water and climate uncertainties: A hydro-economic modeling framework, Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.12.001. Varela-Ortega, C., Sumpsi, J.M., and Blanco, M. (2002) Water availability in the Mediterranean region, in F. Brouwer and J. Van der Straaten (eds.), Nature and Agriculture in the European Union: New Perspectives on Policies that Shape the European Countryside, International Library of Ecological Economics, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing: 117–140. Varela-Ortega, C., Sumpsi, J.M., Garrido, A., Blanco, M., and Iglesias, E. (1998) Water pricing policies, public decision making and farmers’ response: Implications for water policy, Agricultural Economics, 19(1–2): 193–202. 9DX[ -U + &ORVLQJ &RPPHQWV WR WKH 6FLHQWL¿F ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6HPLQDU :DWHU Management: Technology, Economics and the Environment, Ramón Areces Foundation, Madrid, January 19–20, online, available at: www.fundacionareces. es.

Part VI

Conclusions

14 Can the world feed itself sustainably? Alberto Garrido, Helen Ingram, and Robert Sandford

Introduction The food crisis of 2007 and 2008 brought the global problem of hunger and malnutrition to an unprecedented level of concern. While the records of Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations indicated that 963 million people suffered from hunger, the explosion of food prices gave way to a scenario that nobody had predicted. Rice prices quadrupled and corn prices tripled in very few months (FAO 2009), putting food importing countries under enormous strain to avoid passing those price surges on to the poorest and most needy. FAO’s revised records indicate that another 100 million people swelled the count of starving human beings resulting from the food crises. Most future scenarios are not optimistic (Kuylenstierna et al. 2008; Falkenmark and Rockström, Chapter 6, this volume), especially if climate change projections and future food needs are jointly analyzed (Hoff et al. 2010). The challenge of feeding the world in the cheapest and most sustainable ways is now a top global priority. In many countries, per capita food production has diminished during the last three decades, even though hunger and malnutrition was clearly diagnosed in the 1960s. But while the strategies are numerous and diverse, progress in solving these global problems is too parsimonious. Agriculture production is also threatened by increased insecurity of ample, affordable water supplies of acceptable quality. Global commitment to environmental sustainability implies limits to the extent to which new sources of water can be developed through the construction of dams, reservoirs, and diversions. Agriculture is increasingly outbid in the quest for water by producers of exotic energy like biofuels and tar sands that use and sometimes pollute large quantities. Growing urban demands for water and land are an additional burden upon agriculture. This book addresses the world’s demand for water from a triple perspective. First, it examines the world’s food production systems – from the biophysical and engineering scale, all the way up to the global level. Second, the book looks DW WKH FRQWH[WV RI GHYHORSHG DQG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV DQG ¿QDOO\ LW DQDO\]HV the political and institutional arrangements at national, regional and global levels. In this chapter, we summarize and highlight the most outstanding messages. The ideas are organized in parallel with the volume’s parts and chapters.

312 A. Garrido et al.

Innovations in food production and water management Gains in water productivity Sustainability is both a socio-economic and biophysical concept. Food production is technically optimal if more hydrocarbons, fats, and proteins of interest to human nutrition are synthesized with less energy and water on less land. Fereres (in Chapter 2) reviews the trends of crops’ productivity in both developed and developing countries, indicating that productivity growth has slowed down in the most recent years with respect to the gains achieved between 1965 and 2000. He shows that since year 2000, world grain productivity (in yields per hectare) has in fact diminished; whereas, it had grown at 44 kg/ha/yr since 1965. Clearly, stagnant productivities at world scale cannot alone explain the present state of worldwide human nutrition, because more land has been converted to production in the last decades. And yet Fereres claims that agronomists and experts had been voicing since the late 1990s that the world was not making enough efforts in terms of investment, research, and extension to sustain the productivity growth of the last century. 6FLHQWL¿FGHYHORSPHQWKDVKRZHYHUPDGHSDWKEUHDNLQJLQVLJKWVWKDWKDYH researchers focusing on factors that explain water productivity that offer more potential. Fereres concludes that “there is great potential for improving water productivity in food production,” but numerous barriers, as subsequent chapters of the book analyze, prevent irrigation schemes and farmers from exploiting the advantages that are already at hand. In many cases, stagnant water (and land) productivity is limited by factors other than water scarcity – poor crop management being the most critical. Plant breeding offers potential, but only in the medium and short term (10–20 years). The management of upstream conveyance systems and downstream uses offers great technical potential; however, as Wilder explains in Chapter 11, the institutions of large irrigation systems are complex and very often lack the capacity to focus on all relevant aspects. It is somewhat ironic that Fereres’ technical chapter concludes by highlighting that “there have been important barriers preventing the use of irrigation management technologies, most of them related to economics, social and institutional constraints.” Droughts and allocative mechanisms The “greening” of water for food production has gained increasing attention, leveling the priorities that, until very recently, were granted primarily to blue water and irrigation. And yet, in developed countries, especially those with 0HGLWHUUDQHDQ FOLPDWHV LUULJDWLRQ WDNHV D VLJQL¿FDQW SDUW RI WKH DYDLODEOH resources and is by far the largest sector in terms of water consumption. Australia is a world example for a number of reasons and, within this vast contiQHQW WKH 0XUUD\'DUOLQJ EHVW H[HPSOL¿HV WKH QRWLRQ WKDW *OHLFN recently coined as “peak ecological water.” A clear recognition that entitle-

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 313 ments for irrigation farming had surpassed the sustainable yield of the basin gave rise to the notion of cap-and-trade, and with that came a panoply of strategies to cope with extreme droughts, such as the prolonged one between 1996 and 2005. As Craik and Cleaver (Chapter 3) explain, by making water allocation more ÀH[LEOH DQG IDFLOLWDWLQJ H[FKDQJLQJ PHFKDQLVPV EHWZHHQ LUULJDWRUV WKH HFRnomic impacts of droughts were partially offset. In addition, users and managers became more prepared and accustomed to dealing with scarce resources, an important asset since the climate change projections for the Murray-Darling catchment indicate less precipitation, less run-off and more climatic variation in WKHIXWXUH2QHRIWKHLQWHUHVWLQJLQVLJKWVRI&KDSWHUDXWKRUHGE\RI¿FLDOVZKR were then managers of the Murray-Darling, is that viewed from up close, allocation becomes highly contentious in times of drought even in river basins widely admired for good management. In the toughest of times, managers have put some priority on allocation of water to the environment, albeit a very small allocation. Whether this will continue to be the case should drought continue remains uncertain. Integrated water management in Africa and Latin America Some of the technological developments that Fereres reviews and the instituWLRQDO UHVSRQVHV WKDW &UDLN DQG &OHDYHU VXPPDUL]H DUH GLI¿FXOW WR DSSO\ LQ Africa. But ensuring more sustainable food production in the sub-Saharan basins is needed more than ever (Bahri et al. Chapter 4). For a start, many countries in the region suffer seriously from malnutrition, and a large percentage of the population lacks adequate access to drinking water and sanitation. And yet, in percapita terms, most sub-Saharan countries cannot be grouped with those under severe water stress. The lack of infrastructure is severe, and that prevents increasing water use to enhance food production (see a number of selected countries from Africa in Table 14.1). But investment in water infrastructure is comSOLFDWHGE\LQVXI¿FLHQWFRRSHUDWLRQDPRQJULSDULDQVWDWHVFDXVLQJVRFLDOVWUHVV and augmenting the vulnerability of the population to natural risks. Some 75 percent of the population lives in the 63 transboundary basins in Africa, totaling 93 percent of the fresh water. Perhaps this fact explains Bahri et al.’s conclusion that integrated water management should perhaps take into account national borders, before it can become all-encompassing of the catchment areas that overlap into more than one country. And yet per capita withdrawals from renewable resources below 100 m3/cap/yr indicate very low use rates, and an extreme reliance on subsistence, pastoral, and rain-fed agricultural systems. For that reason, high vulnerability to droughts, low harvests, and malnutrition are the main consequences. Most researchers consider a balanced diet that is not purely vegetarian requires between 1,300 and 1,700 m3/person and year. Food production can be increased by enlarging the irrigated acreage in Africa and Latin America as the last column on Table 14.1 indicates (the ratio of

814 622 8,233 2,132 336 139 1,233

184 285 110 337 100 216 33.7 286.2 154 105

Source: Gleick (2009), FAO (2009)

South America Argentina Bolivia Brazil Colombia Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela

Africa Angola Cameroon Ethiopia Madagascar Mali Mozambique Niger Nigeria Sudan Zambia 29.19 1.44 59.3 10.71 0.49 3.15 8.37

6.07 0.99 5.56 14.96 6.55 0.63 2.18 8.01 37.32 1.74

Renewable resources Withdrawal (km3) (km3)

753 157 318 235 80 910 313

22 61 72 804 484 32 156 61 1,030 149

Per cap withdrawal m3/p/yr

27,800 2,928 57,640 2,818 2,850 1,373 2,595

3,000 5,960 10,000 2,900 4,634 3,900 14,483 28,200 16,233 5,260

Arable land (1,000 ha)

Table 14.1 Basic water resources features of selected countries in Africa and Latin America

60

1,390 117 2,306 564 57 206 441

300 899 232 117 145 282 1,786 158

–

Irrigated land (1,000 ha)

6,200 2,000 29,000 6,600 – 1,700 1,700

3,700 290 2,700 1,500 566 3,070 270 2,330 2,700 523

4.5 17.1 12.6 11.7 – 8.3 3.9

61.7 – 9.0 1.7 2.4 26.2 1.9 8.3 1.5 3.3

Irrigation potential Pot/actual (1,000 ha)

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 315 existing irrigated and potentially irrigated hectares). Enlarging irrigated acreage requires water resources planning and large investments in water works, and considerable capital investment. On a smaller scale, that of a basin like the Great Ruaha (in Tanzania), GLI¿FXOWLHVLQKDUPRQL]LQJIRRGSURGXFWLRQIRUUXUDOIDPLOLHVK\GURSRZHUDQG wetlands conservation multiply, as Bahri et al. indicate. On top of the seasonal ÀRZYDULDWLRQVDQGWKHXQFHUWDLQK\GURORJLFDOOLQNDJHVEHWZHHQKHDGZDWHUVDQG ÀRRGSODLQVLQVWLWXWLRQDOIDLOXUHVDQGZHDN:DWHU8VHUV$VVRFLDWLRQV:8$V act as barriers towards more adaptive management at the basin level. And yet, there is evidence that fair and more sustainable allocation regimes are technically feasible. Increasing competition between cities, agriculture, and environment for water are becoming hotspots in many areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Although the demographic transition seems to be occurring in Africa, the poorest on the continent KDYHQRW\HWUHDFKHGWKDWSRLQWDGGLQJPRUHGLI¿FXOWLHVWRPDQ\PDMRUFLWLHV Productivity gains in Spain Spain, together with Australia, Mexico, Israel, and the Western United States, H[HPSOL¿HVWKHSUREOHPVWKDWGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVIDFHZKHQWKHSK\VLFDOOLPLWV are reached or surpassed. The agricultural sector, long backed by centuries-old expansionary policies, is seen both as the culprit and the solution. Society in general, and urban people primarily, have failed to realize the profound transformations of the Spanish farm sector in just one decade. As a result, many more crops per drop are produced, but water consumption in the farm sector has remained stable. Garrido and Iglesias (Chapter 5) provide a comprehensive analysis of the factors explaining the gains of water productivity and sustainability in Spain. Their conclusions show that: (a) agricultural policy reform granted more “freedom to farm” and more openness to the global markets; (b) that the technological push and adoption of technologies needed both the support of the governPHQWLQFR¿QDQFLQJUHKDELOLWDWLRQSURMHFWVDWWKHZKROHVDOHDQGEDVLQOHYHOVDQG the initiative of the private sector to assure adoption of new technologies; and (c) LQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDGHSHUPLWWHGIRFXVLQJRQWKHPRVWHI¿FLHQWFURSVUHGXFLQJERWK land and water used in crops that had been supported by European Union (EU) subsidies. World trade of agricultural commodities is primarily run by the industrialized countries, and the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) plus Indonesia, Thailand, and Argentina (WTO 2009). Just 15 countries, including the EU (which counts as a single trading partner) comprise 90 percent of the world trade in money terms, and within-EU trade represents more than 50 percent. These ¿JXUHVVXJJHVWWKDWIDUPWUDGHLVVWLOOLQLWVLQIDQF\IRUPDQ\FRXQWULHVZLWKWKH largest potential to gain from it, and that technological and institutional advances in optimizing water productivity (summarized in Chapters 2 and 3) are striving to improve food production.

316 A. Garrido et al.

Counting the drops and the mouths to feed: Food production, trade, and environmental sustainability Issues related to world food demand Globalization is driven by the needs of importing countries, which require cheap access to basic commodities. As Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008) show, most trade of basic commodities is carried out by a small number of countries. Falkenmark and Rockström (Chapter 6) review the best projections of food demand for 2050. Their approach takes a full perspective of water and food issues at world scale, considering the green and blue water components and a country-level analysis with projections up to 2050. The distinction between green and blue water originates from Falkenmark (1995). Blue and green water resources fundamentally differ in their scope of application and thus opportunity cost. Green water is soil moisture originating from rainfall. It cannot be automatically reallocated to uses other than natural vegetation or alternative rain-fed crops. Blue ZDWHU LV DUWL¿FLDOO\ DSSOLHG WR WKH FURSV WKURXJK LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHPV DQG FDQ EH used for irrigating crops and also for other urban, agricultural, and industrial water uses. A major conclusion of the work reviewed in Chapter 6 and the recent literature reviewed in it suggests the importance of green water for food production potential, even in irrigated systems. As a consequence of looking instead at the blue-green water dichotomy, a more adequate approach should look at the 0 to 100 scale. The country-level analysis of Falkenmark and Rockström (Chapter 6) \LHOGV D FODVVL¿FDWLRQ RI FRXQWULHV DORQJ WZR D[HV EDVHG RQ JUHHQ DQG EOXH shortages. Blue- and green-free countries are those with more than 1,000 m3/ person/year of blue water and 1,300 m3/person/year of green water. Based on their modeling analyses, 49 percent of the world population is expected to live in countries with blue- and green-water shortages. For the countries expected to be in this situation, Falkenmark and Rockström suggest a combination of four strategies: i ii iii iv

cropland expansion to capture green water from non-cropped land; rainwater harvesting; productivity increase through loss reduction; and the import of virtual water.

Virtual water trade is the option analyzed by Yang and Zehnder in Chapter 7. Akin to trade theory, international virtual water “trade” can be evaluated in terms RI FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH ¿UVW H[SOLFLWO\ IRUPXODWHG E\ WKH %ULWLVK HFRQRPLVW David Ricardo), and the fact that natural resources are unevenly distributed over VSDFHDQGWLPH,WLVFODLPHGWKDWQDWLRQVFDQSUR¿WIURPWUDGHLIWKH\FRQFHQWUDWH on, or specialize in, the production of goods and services for which they have a competitive advantage, while importing goods and services for which they have a competitive disadvantage. In particular, it refers to the ability of a country to

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 317 SURGXFHDSDUWLFXODUJRRGPRUHHI¿FLHQWO\DQGDWDORZHURSSRUWXQLW\FRVWWKDQ another country. This is the case in which there is a relatively high production potential for the water-intensive commodity due to, for instance, relative abundance of water and/or a relatively high water productivity in the country. Many water-scarce nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive (Chapagain et al. 2006). This releases the pressure on their domestic water resources and avoids the economic costs and political stress of mobilizing the “imported” amount of water (Allan 2001). In line with the evaluations reported by Hoekstra and Chapagain (2008), Yang and Zenhder claim that the world saves about 336 km3 by means of commodity trade. Except for rice, global trade that results in increased global water use trade of cereals, soybean, wheat, maize, and barley generate savings over 25 percent of the virtual water import. Currently, only 20 percent of all virtual water traded occurs in countries where resource availability is below 1,700 m3/person/yr, and 68.1 percent in nonwater-scarce countries. Between Middle East and North African countries (MENA) food imports contribute toward saving enormous amounts of water and to enlarging the water resource base by up to 557 percent in Libya. Food imports in Algeria, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, and Tunisia add more than 50 percent to the water otherwise available in the country. From a global perspective, the importance of virtual water trade is highlighted by the fact that most exported water is green water, which has lower opportunity cost than blue water. Food imports have impacts on the poor importing countries. While many countries easily imported cheap food, the food crises of 2007 and the resulting price peaks of 2008 generated an unprecedented convergence of unfortunate trends. The explanation begins with local food producers, especially those living in countries with abundant mineral and energy resources, who were driven out of business as a result of a strong appreciation of the local currency against the principal currencies. But the increasing reliance on food imports left many countries unprepared to cope with extremely high prices. Another important issue in evaluating the consequences of virtual water transfers is the intense use of inputs by exporting countries, some of which are responsible for water pollution and habitat degradation. In the case of Brazil, for example, the soybean economy is partially responsible for the pressure to develop crop land in the Amazon. Furthermore, incentives to expand irrigated land in France, Brazil, and the United States are certainly due to the import countries. While Falkenmark and Rockström mentioned virtual water trade as a strategy for water-scarce countries, so far low-income countries have engaged very little in virtual water trade. Determining whether large-scale participation in virtual ZDWHU WUDGLQJ LV HFRQRPLFDOO\ DQG HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ HI¿FLHQW DQG HIIHFWLYH ZLOO depend on whether the real opportunity cost of water resources is properly internalized, and whether the trade is actually based on differences in competitive advantage among trading partners. It is also doubtful that “virtual water trade” can be termed a purposeful “strategy,” because no government or agent pursues it directly. Rather, it is a process involving large numbers of private and public

318 A. Garrido et al. transactions naturally linked to trade and the exchange of goods. This is less the case with arid and semi-arid countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Only very recently, international organizations, governments, and researchers have started to look seriously at the option to save water by means of food imports with large quantities of embedded water (i.e. cereals, animal feed, rice). Since water is a limiting resource for many food-importing countries, in most cases the observed patterns of trade are consistent with relative levels of water scarcity among trading partners. Relationships can be more complex, however, DQGPDQ\FRXQWULHVHQJDJHLQWZRZD\ÀRZVRIWUDGH6SDLQLPSRUWVDQGH[SRUWV oranges, grapes, wine). While one can trace back the region or basin from which water exports originate, it is impossible to record the imports and assign them to VSHFL¿FJHRJUDSKLFDO]RQHV7KHUHIRUHDWWKHVXEQDWLRQDOOHYHOLWLVLPSRVVLEOH to draw conclusions about the relationship of water scarcity to water trading. :KLOHJOREDOEHQH¿WVFDQEHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKYLUWXDOZDWHUWUDGH+RHNVWUDDQG Chapagain 2008; Garrido et al. 2010), there are pitfalls in pursuing the concept to its most extreme, which is to import virtually both water and land. Up until recently, virtual water trade was primarily an unintended consequence of farm commodities trade. However, countries are now deliberately seeking to import water, and more will do so as they become aware of the advantages of “importing” land and natural endowments as well. Massive land purchases in Africa through state negotiations are the genuine expression of virtual trade of natural resources. Purchasing states provide capital, technology and know-how; land selling states offer abundant land and water in exchange for hard currency or some other compensation. The Economist (2009) reported that between 15 and 20 million hectares of African farmland have been sold to food-importing or water-scarce countries – China leading the group (see von Braun and MeinzenDick 2009, for a more detailed analysis of the available information). The ethical consequences of these exchanges have not been yet been thoroughly thought out and discussed and may well be damaging. Another potentially destructive effect of virtual water trade is the specialization of water exporters in goods that are water-intensive. This can exacerbate water scarcity for domestic users and increase the price of food for the poorest. There may be ripple effects from pressures to develop interbasin water transfer infrastructure so that more crops can be produced for the importing countries. These water transfers may cause scarcity pressure to adjacent basins or catchments, from which water resources can be transferred. Foreign food demand exerts a powerful albeit indirect pressure for exporting countries that may be contrary to citizen preferences. Underlying the ethical and political dimensions of the land purchases are clear and unambiguous economic signs of the gains from trade, as well as the HI¿FLHQFLHVWKDWFDQEHDFKLHYHGE\H[SDQGLQJWKHFDSLWDOEDVHRIPDQ\$IULFDQ agricultural areas. As von Braun and Meinzen-Dick (2009) state “Foreign investment can provide key resources for agriculture, including development of needed infrastructure and expansion of livelihood options for local people.” In a very

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 319 different vein, Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, president of Nestlé, stated, “The purchases weren’t about land, but water. . . they should be called the great watergrab” (The Economist 2009). The trade-off between commercial and environmental uses. Two chapters of the book consider the environmental value of water. In Chapter 8, Safriel begins by claiming that the protection of nature is also the protection of the human race and its societies and that, at some point, the loss of ecosystem services is fatal. Nature provides humans with biodiversity protection, healthy water supplies, and environmental amenities. But nature needs water and space, ZKLFK FRQÀLFWV ZLWK DW OHDVW DOWHUQDWLYHV L DQG LL VXJJHVWHG E\ )DONHQPDUN and Rockström in Chapter 6. Safriel explains: The term “ecosystem,” coined by practitioners of the life sciences, applies to a landscape unit comprising all the organisms and the physical and chemical attributes of that landscape, many of which affect, are affected by, or interact with the organisms in that landscape unit. . . . . the [Millennium Ecosystem Assessment] was innovative in determining that besides ecosystems such as forests, drylands and wetlands, cultivated and urban areas, are WUHDWHGDVHFRV\VWHPVWRR0$ 7KLVDSSURDFKUHÀHFWVWKHUHFRJQLWLRQ that most ecosystems on earth are affected and managed by humans to a certain extent, either actively or passively, deliberately or unintentionally, whereas all cultivated and urban ones are actively and intensively managed by people. These and other actively managed ecosystems now constitute more than half of the ice-free surface of the earth (37 percent of which are taken by cultivated ecosystems, FAO 1995). Ecosystem services in the most recent formulations include: i provisioning goods (like food); ii regulating services (like rivers’ run-off); LLL FXOWXUDOVHUYLFHVFRQVWLWXWHWKHQRQPDWHULDOEHQH¿WVREWDLQHGIURPHFRV\Vtems, such as the recreation options and aesthetic values; iv supporting services, which are critical for the provision of all other services, derive from basic ecosystem functions such as primary production, nutrient cycling, and soil formation and conservation; and v biodiversity, that is actively involved in the provision of all ecosystem services. Deciding the extent to which these services should be emphasized, what tracts of land should be kept in natural state, and what allocations of water should go WR QDWXUDO KDELWDWV LV FRPSOH[ 3DUW RI WKH GLI¿FXOW\ LV GXH WR WKH H[LVWHQFH RI highly non-linear causality processes, irreversibilities, and ecosystems that SURYLGH FRQÀLFWLQJ VHUYLFHV LH DIIRUHVWHG DUHDV WKDW HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWH PRUH

320 A. Garrido et al. water than low or non-vegetated land, but provide greater soil protection services). The questions surrounding what constitutes ecosystem protection and restoration are far from easy. Safriel concludes with research and policy recommendations. Not surprisLQJO\ KH SODFHV WKH LGHQWL¿FDWLRQ RI HFRV\VWHP QHHGV DW WKH KLJKHVW SULRULW\ Among the research issues, he recommends the following: 1

2

3

4 5

Identify and quantify the services provided by each ecosystem type. Identify the optimal and minimal water (quantity and quality, in time and space) and land (size and spatial pattern) required by each of these ecosystems for securing the sustainability of the provision of their services; determine which of the ecosystem types within the landscape proposed for development play landscape-relevant keystone roles, and explore means to maintain ecosystem processes; identify species that are endangered or at risk of becoming endangered, assess the contribution of each to water-related as well as other ecosystem services; compare local water losses from evapotranspiration in different ecosystems under the different management and uses; and assess biodiversity components of current and potential economic VLJQL¿FDQFH

Safriel goes further in specifying the need for stronger data on ecosystem effects, especially losses in biodiversity, when trade-offs are being made against further SRSXODWLRQH[SDQVLRQDQGHFRQRPLFJURZWKWKDWSURPLVHEHQH¿WVWRKXPDQVEXW IDLOWRGLVFRXQWWKHVHEHQH¿WVZLWKORVVHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOVHUYLFHV7KLVLVHVSHcially necessary as climate change is likely to threaten such services. The focus on environmental services has important implications for policy, including the removal of subsidies for economic activities, including agriculture that harms such services. Safriel makes four policy recommendations: 1 2

include all externalities in planning or reviewing a development project, especially the expected reduction in service provision rate; water allocations to ecosystems should be based on predetermined goals that UHÀHFWWKHVWDWHDQGWUHQGVRIVHUYLFHVRIWKHVHHFRV\VWHPVZKLFKPXVWEH based on benchmarks; ZKHQHFRV\VWHPVRIVSHFLDOVLJQL¿FDQFHVXFKDVWKRVHLQFOLPDWLFWUDQVLWLRQ areas or those supporting progenitors and relatives of cultivated crops are targeted for water-driven development, it would be prudent to consider setting aside within them protected areas; and WKHFRVWVDQGEHQH¿WVRIDYRLGLQJUHGXFLQJRUPLWLJDWLQJWKHHIIHFWVRIHFRsystem fragmentation by a projected development project needs to be evaluated against different degrees of the aspired sustainability of the project and of the resulting human well-being.

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 321 In Chapter 9, Loucks takes a more applied approach in addressing how much water is needed for the environment, and suggests that striking the right balance between environmental and productive services is a politically complex issue, one which neither ecology nor economics will ever be allowed to resolve without political interference. Loucks reviews the water requirements of different ways humans have to make a living, and contrasts them at the global level with available resources. He provides a summary of surface and groundwater resources, the projected effects of climate change, and anticipated population growth. He concludes that many developed and developing countries are bound to suffer serious problems of scarcity. Against this evidence, indicating serious stress in many world regions, Loucks asks the relevant question, also highlighted by Safriel, of how much water should be allocated to the environment. The answer of course is determined by how such water is available and the response of the ecosystems to increases of water allocation away from nature. Loucks reviews a number of key studies that represent the daunting task of ecological restoration once ecosystem services are threatened or lost. ,QWKHFDVHRIWKH(YHUJODGHV86)ORULGD WKHDXWKRUUHYLHZVWKHVLJQL¿FDQW delay and lack of agreement in the beginning with the structural transformations that would be needed to restore the hydrological balance of the wetlands. In the case of the Chesapeake Bay (US), progress is also slow and expected results quite uncertain, but at least the restoration cost is not as high as in the Everglades. Loucks reviews also the well-known disaster of the Aral Sea, which he categorizes as a genuine unbalanced case in favor of productive services (cotton production), and two river systems (the Murray-Darling in Australia, see also Chapter 3, and WKH 0LVVLVVLSSL 86 ,Q DOO WKHVH FDVHV LQ ZKLFK WUDGHRIIV DUH VR GLI¿FXOW WR balance, it is important to decide “on how best to allocate our increasingly variable and uncertain water supplies to meet increasing demands in a way that optimizes water for all life, for the sake of our own and that of our descendents”.

Revitalized governance (YHQWKRXJKVFLHQWL¿FNQRZOHGJHFDQSURYLGHGHWDLOHGDQGSUHFLVHGHVFULSWLRQV of the state of aquatic ecosystems and modelers can project future water needs, such information can never resolve water governance questions of what values are to be served and who wins and who loses. Water policy issues are addressed through social and political processes. Water managers can be informed by the EHVW SRVVLEOH VFLHQFH LQFOXGLQJ EHQH¿WFRVW DQDO\VLV DFFRXQWLQJ IRU HQYLURQPHQWDOVHUYLFHVDQGWKHODWHVWZLVGRPDERXWDYDLODEOHSROLF\WRROVWRLQÀXHQFH the behavior of water users. However, unless that information is accompanied by political support for action and an organizational environment favorable to change, no progress is likely to be made towards sustainability. Water governance is a term that recognizes that water policy questions are addressed through private as well as public decisions and public/private partnerships.1 :DWHUJRYHUQDQFHLVDFRQWHQWLRXVDQGFRQWHVWHG¿HOGDQGDXWKRULWDWLYHFRPmentators have observed that there is little consensus on which values or which

322 A. Garrido et al. institutions are best (Conca 2006; Whiteley et al. 2008; Blatter and Ingram 7KHHOLWHSURIHVVLRQDOFRPPXQLW\RIZDWHURI¿FLDOVDQGSUDFWLWLRQHUVKDV its own perspectives and networks, and tends to view water very differently from many social movement activists and environmentalists. Strong protests have surIDFHGRQLVVXHVOLNHWKHEHQH¿WVDQGFRVWVRIODUJHGDPVDQGGLYHUVLRQVDQGKRZ human needs should be balanced with those of other species (Conca 2006; Feldman 1995; Doremus and Tarlock 2008). The fact that the authors of the four chapters in this section agree on some things and disagree on others is therefore understandable and in our opinion desirable. Governance issues are complex in developed and developing countries, DOWKRXJKWKH\DUHLQKHUHQWO\GLIIHUHQW7KH¿UVWFKDSWHUGHDOLQJZLWKJRYHUQDQFH authored by Briscoe (Chapter 10), takes on the task of reviewing water issues in developing and middle income countries. The author warns us that his approach is based on his extensive experience rather than on orthodox academic enquiry. Indeed, Chapter 10 is of immense value to water historians and other scholars, EHFDXVHLWLVDFOHDUVWDWHPHQWRILQWHQWDQGSXUSRVHIURPD¿JXUHRIFRQVLGHUDEOH UHDOZRUOG LQÀXHQFH )DU WRR RIWHQ VLPLODUO\ VLWXDWHG RI¿FLDOV ZULWH RQO\ ZKDW amounts to organizational case statements. The author reminds us that the message and messenger can never be divorced from his or her experience. Despite this inevitable bias, Briscoe claims that designing water policies in a changing world needs the foundation of positive rather than normative knowledge. He relies on a sort of dichotomy materialized by the views of experts from developed countries and by the most urgent needs of developing countries’ water managers, and takes sides in favor of the latter. Based on his personal experience, and that of the main international donors, Briscoe proposes a number of rules for water reformers: 1 2

3 4 5 6

there must be a demand for reform; water is a special resource, both because it cannot be treated as market good, and because it cannot be the vehicle for realization of the social priorities, however important and essential resource may be; tailor the reform to the problem it is addressing; keep the expectations within the reasonable level; focus on the easiest reform components to success; and design reforms that confer political advantages of value to the reformers or else reform will have no champions.

Briscoe agrees with all the other authors of chapters in this section that context and political reality in a particular setting determine water policy outcomes. It would seem that Briscoe makes the understanding of the most complex and subtle features of each policy reform context as the necessary condition (if QRWDOVRVXI¿FLHQW IRUJHWWLQJUHIRUPVGRQH,QRQHVHQVH%ULVFRH¶VFRQFOXVLRQV achieved by learning the lessons of a professional life, do converge with that of Ingram, as shown in Chapter 12, in emphasizing the importance of having a strong contextual approach, though here the approach is entirely different (see

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 323 below). Another lesson of Briscoe is that water reform must support economic development. Although he does not take on the task of responding to the questions of “to what extent?” or “at what cost?”, he does seem to suggest that successful policies are to be perceived by the governing elites as enabling economic growth and not as hindering it. Briscoe warns against managers’ excessive specialization and endorses multidisciplinary approaches and training. He claims that water policy reform is a dialectic process, in which more complex problems are faced when easier ones are overcome. In another set of conclusions, Briscoe recalls that people favor infrastructures, however simple or modest, that solve day-to-day nuisances. Perhaps, the most important conclusion of Briscoe’s chapter is that some developing and HPHUJLQJFRXQWULHVOLNH%UD]LODQG,QGLDDPRQJWKRVHPHQWLRQHG QHHGWR¿QG their strategies to reform, design their own plans, and choose the execution plans, rather than to follow advice from developed countries. In Chapter 11, Wilder brings us to a country of which much has been written in the last two decades about its institutions and policy reform. Pursuant to Article 27 of the Mexican Constitution and the National Water Law of 1992, Mexico embarked on an ambitious program of transferring the management of many irrigation systems to local user groups, primarily farmers. By 1996, 372 water user associations had been formed to control water deliveries to 2.92 million hectares. Along with this came also the turning over to their corresponding water users assoFLDWLRQVRIWKHHQWLUHPDQDJHPHQWRIWKHGLVWULFWV¶¿QDQFHDQGHFRQRPLFDGPLQLVtration, including charging irrigation fees and cost recovery schemes. The so-called Irrigation Management Transfer spans a 15-year period, providing important lessons for countries embarking on devolution schemes of grand scale. Wilder presents arguments and data that suggest that Mexican water reform may improve the economic position and participation of some better off farmers but have had unfavorable equity consequences to poor farmers. In her analysis of the water supply sector, Wilder claims, In the post-transition phase, Mexico has functioning market institutions such as formal water markets for trading surplus irrigation rights, a public regisWU\RIZDWHUULJKWVDQGPRYLQJZDWHUWRPRUHHI¿FLHQWKLJKHUYDOXHXVHV but has stalled out in its equity and sustainability initiatives such as management to achieve water conservation and effective participatory mechanisms. The author has observed that urban water decentralization confronts structural problems due to lack of resources and that equity, participation, and sustainability initiatives appear to have stalled out. While control of water decisions have been largely decentralized, Wilder observes that allocation of federal money has not followed the devolution of authority. In Sonora, where irrigated agriculture LVH[WHQVLYHDQGSRWHQWLDOO\TXLWHSUR¿WDEOHUHIRUPVEHQH¿WHGVRPHIDUPHUVDQG left others worse off. In many ejidos (communal farms) market prices gained by ZDWHUVDOHVDQGWUDQVIHUDUHQRWVXI¿FLHQWWRFRPSHQVDWHIDUPHUVIRUORVVRISURductive resources.

324 A. Garrido et al. The conclusions to be drawn from Wilder’s chapter depend upon how seriously the stated participatory and equity goals of the reforms are to be taken, measured against some evidence of economic development gains in Mexico that are prioritized in the chapter by Briscoe. Or, it may be that in Mexico, as Briscoe claims, that water reform is a dialectic process in which more complex problems are faced once the easier ones are solved, although there is other evidence to VXJJHVWWKDWRQFHHTXLW\LVOHIWRXWRIPDUNHWWUDQVIHUSROLF\LWYHU\GLI¿FXOWWR later interject (Bauer 2004). In Chapter 12, Ingram draws very different lessons from the Mexican case. She agrees with Briscoe that context matters, but would interpret the Mexican case as a failed attempt on the part of the World Bank and others in the international water expert community to impose a universal solution, such as Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) that includes devolution of central authority, markets, and water-user participation, upon a context in which fairness and equity were long-term constitutional goals as yet only poorly achieved. Ingram is far more skeptical than Briscoe of the intent of governing elites in international and national arenas. She would also be much more skeptical of the ability of markets to address issues of fairness, absent strong governmental enforcement of rules protecting minorities and the economically disadvantaged that are clearly missing in Mexico. Ingram observes that the problem of many contemporary reforms (the chapter reviews a number, including River Basin Institutions and Adaptive Management) is not so much what they propose either separately or in combination, but what they leave out. Absent from the discussion of contemporary reforms are discussions of ways to move from ideas and concepts to actions. How can issues be framed so as to engage the imagination and public support necessary to cause change? How can social movements be mobilized to place water issues higher on the public agenda of things that need to be addressed? How can leadership be attracted to take up water issues that have long been the province of experts? How can water agencies bound by conservative bureaucratic cultures be encouraged to take risks by adopting new ideas and approaches? 3ROLWLFV LV LQHYLWDEOH DFFRUGLQJ WR ,QJUDP DQG DQ\ DWWHPSW WR VWLÀH LW E\ imposing universal solutions endorsed by technical water elites is bound to be frustrated. Rather than denounce the vagaries of politics for turning a deaf ear to science and reason, Ingram suggests that it would be better to apply some obvious political lessons. The way issues are framed is enormously important, and when water reforms, including markets and infrastructure, are portrayed as unfair, they arouse political opposition. The water policy community could learn a good deal from climate change that has captured the agenda and is invoked whatever the event. Rather than capitalizing upon hot topics like climate change, ZLOG¿UHVGURXJKWDQGIRRGVHFXULW\RIZKLFKZDWHULVFORVHWRWKHKHDUWRIHDFK matter, connections are not made and such opportunities are lost. Ingram takes strong issue with Briscoe in that she insists upon normative knowledge in water governance. The discussion of values such as human rights to water, environmental ethics, and distributional fairness are an important part

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 325 of politically attractive policy discourse. Collective identities are created, H[SUHVVHGVXVWDLQHGDQGPRGL¿HGE\SURFHVVHVLQFOXGLQJWKHIUDPLQJRILVVXHV and the marshalling of symbols. One common frame or narrative portrays water that naturally and justly belongs to particular places somehow becoming disemERGLHG DQG ORVW 7KH ORVV LV DPSOL¿HG E\ D VHQVH RI GLVHQIUDQFKLVHPHQW E\ affected communities. Implementation is every bit as important as making water policy, and Ingram argues the international donor community and the network of technical water experts have neglected the former while urging formal adoption of idealized solutions. Further, it must be recognized that policies change in the course of implementation and may end up serving values and interests very different from the way originally intended. No policy designs or institutions once put in place can just run on their own without continual vigilance. Chapter 13, by Varela-Ortega, takes on the analysis of the European Union’s water and agricultural policies. If ever a trading bloc has for decades heavily funded agricultural and farm support policies, it is the EU. The enactment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in 2000 opened a new era in EU environmental legislation, not least because it would change dramatically the way irrigation policy and farm water demand evolve, especially in Mediterranean countries. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) underwent a series of reforms, starting in 1992, that removed a great deal of border protection against other trading partners, dismantling most barriers to trade with Third World counWULHVDQG¿QLVKHGZLWKWKHUHIRUPRIDQGWKH(8&RPPLVVLRQUHSRUWFDOOHG CAP “Health Check” of 2008. Being formed by well-fed and wealthy societies, the EU has embarked on a SROLF\ SURFHVV LQ ZKLFK OHVV DJULFXOWXUDO LQWHQVL¿FDWLRQ OHVVHU HQYLURQPHQWDO impacts, and restoration of water bodies have put the focus on agricultural water use. Spain’s water problems are much like other arid countries in the Mediterranean with clear regional imbalances in water availability and, according to Varela-Ortega, the country has to face the tough job of achieving the national objective of assuring water services to all users. Complying with the WFD requirements of “good ecological status of all waters” is a major task for Spanish river basin authorities. As explained also in Chapter 5, the Spanish irrigation sector has evolved progressively during the last decades to adjust to policydriven requirements, market forces, and territorial balances. Being continental policies initiatives, the EU water and agricultural policies are conceived internationally but affect a diversity of territories and social environments. The WFD certainly contributed to legitimizing and facilitating the implementation of UHJLRQDO ZDWHU FRQVHUYDWLRQ SROLFLHV HVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQ HQIRUFHPHQW LV GLI¿FXOW and high social costs are involved (such as in the case of groundwater irrigation) Water institutions in Spain are centuries-old, and well positioned to adjust to the new policy-setting and management modes. In fact, the national irrigation plan in Spain has increased water productivity through the nationwide irrigation modernization program, in part because irrigation communities (districts) were prepared to undergo profound technical and institutional transformations. By

326 A. Garrido et al. improving the coordination elements and synergies, EU policies have become OHVVFRQÀLFWLQJDOWKRXJKSHUKDSVPRUHFKDOOHQJLQJIRUERWKIDUPHUVDQGZDWHU managers. Discussions about the post-2013 CAP regimes have already started, KRZHYHULWLVGLI¿FXOWWRDQWLFLSDWHWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKLQFHQWLYHVWRIDUPVWKDW use water will affect improvements in Spain’s more deteriorated basins. The water-related environmental requirements of the CAP are also helping to integrate common actions for regional agricultural and water administrations. The two administrations are actively collaborating in several regions and basins in Spain, but there is still progress ahead in many others. All these have to be better coordinated into a well-balanced policy structure for achieving successful water management policies. Despite the differences among the four authors in this section, there is real consensus on some major lessons:

&RQWH[W PDWWHUV DQG WKLV PHDQV WDNLQJ LQWR DFFRXQW WKH JUHDWHU DULGLW\ RI Spain in the EU, the desire for autonomy against outside interference among developing nations, and the equity issues imbedded in most contexts. ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQLVDVLPSRUWDQWDVSROLF\DQGLGHDOL]HGSROLFLHVSXWLQSODFH in lesser-developed countries are especially likely to fail to meet goals, especially if under-resourced. Progress needs to be continually monitored and evaluated.

Politics and political realities are inevitably part of water governance. ProvidLQJSROLWLFDOOHDGHUVZLWKLQFHQWLYHVWRWDNHRQWKHGLI¿FXOWLVVXHVRIZDWHUJRYernance presents real challenges to the water community that must be met if improved water governance is to occur.

Overall lessons and conclusion drawn by Peter Gleick The sixth biennial Rosenberg International Forum on Water Policy, held in Zaragoza, Spain, in 2008, included some presentations not included in this volume, but very useful in our conclusions. Among them are some concluding thoughts presented by world-renowned water scholar Peter Gleick. His assignment was to draw lessons not only from the papers presented, but also from the rich discussion that took place among participants. In his synthesis, Peter Gleick LGHQWL¿HG ¿YH DYHQXHV RI SRWHQWLDO SXEOLF SROLF\ DGYDQFHPHQW WKDW ZLOO VHUYH humanity in our efforts to address the current global water crisis. 1 Ignore ideology, expand thinking *OHLFN RIIHUHG ¿UVW WKDW ZKLOH LGHRORJLFDO GHEDWHV ZHUH RIWHQ LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG even enjoyable, they are not necessarily productive. The kinds of ideological debates he put into this category included arguments over infrastructure; the debate pitting markets and privatization against water as a human right; and the GHEDWH RYHU ZKHWKHU RU QRW JHQHWLFDOO\ PRGL¿HG RUJDQLVPV VKRXOG EH DFFHSWHG

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 327 as part of the future of agriculture. Given how advanced the water crisis has become, we may no longer have the luxury of debating such matters. What is important now is to expand our thinking rather than contracting it around unproductive wrangling. We need to realize how easy it is to get technologies right but the institutions wrong. It is also important to realize that what might work in one place, for small landholders in Africa for example, may look different from solutions that may work in larger-scale systems, say in Asia. But what is really important at this time is to challenge some of our most cherished assumptions. These include the stationarity of climate and water availability and our deep-rooted belief in singular, silver bullet solutions. 2 Integrate, do not isolate There is an urgent need for less isolation in the evolution of water resources policy. While there are examples from around the world of where undue focus RQ RQO\ RQH HOHPHQW RU EHQH¿W KDV UHVXOWHG LQ GDPDJH WR HQWLUH K\GURORJLFDO systems the most compelling example of public policy failure in this area is the current biofuel issue and its impact on water demand and global food prices. From 1976 to 2006, world food prices declined in real terms by about 50 percent DOORZLQJ FRXQWULHV ZLWK ZDWHU GH¿FLWV WR DFFHVV YLUWXDO ZDWHU DW DIIRUGDEOH RU advantageous prices. But since 2006, food prices have been rising dramatically which has created a disincentive to food import. One of the developments responsible for rising food prices is the rapid expansion of biofuel production. Taking more and more land out of agricultural production and requiring more and more water for non-agricultural purposes will create a vicious circle of food SULFHLQFUHDVHVWKDWZLOOPDNHLWPRUHGLI¿FXOWLIQRWLPSRVVLEOHWRPHHWIXWXUH global food production needs. Current biofuel policy is widely seen as an excellent example of how to do the wrong thing with enthusiasm not because of its intentions, but because of its failure to integrate public policy across linked domains of water supply, land-use policy, energy security, and food production. Future biofuel policy has to respond to these linked domains. Isolated public policy failures become apparent where increased water use in one sector traditionally comes at the expense of other users and especially the environment. We have also learned at great expense that it is unwise to permit any activity that leads to groundwater pollution or increased salinity. Such impacts make it impossible to use water for any other purpose than the one that led to its contamination. We can see now that the isolated goals of many WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\ZDWHUSURMHFWVIRFXVHGRQDQDUURZVHWRIEHQH¿WVZKLFKZKHQ UHDOL]HGPDGHRWKHUSRWHQWLDOEHQH¿WVLPSRVVLEOHWRDFKLHYH+\GURSRZHUÀRRG protection, irrigation, and recreation projects ultimately serve isolated functions if they do not integrate impacts on ecosystems, local communities, and local cultures into the way they are designed and operated. Water resources policy has to integrate the widest range of purposes and interests into evolving management approaches, including an acceptance of

328 A. Garrido et al. nature’s equal right to water to perpetuate ecosystem function. Broader integration of water solutions must also mean embracing expanded conceptions of international trade, such as those implicit in notions related to virtual water export in the form of food. 3 Innovate We need to explore new ways of thinking about the water we use and need. We VKRXOGQRWMXVWWKLQNDERXWWKH³EOXH´ZDWHUWKDWÀRZVLQVWUHDPVDQGULYHUV:H should think about the “green” water that falls as precipitation, is absorbed into the soil and evaporated from the earth and evapotranspired through plants as a second vital and almost untapped water resource. The management of these two water sources in tandem will allow further expansion of our global food production capacity while at the same time allowing more water to be reliably available for a variety of environmental requirements, including in-stream aquatic ecosysWHPÀRZQHHGV,QQRYDWLRQ*OHLFNRIIHUHGPHDQVXVLQJWKHFRQFHSWRIYLUWXDO water as a planning tool. Innovation also means the continuing evaluation of “non-traditional” water sources, such as rainwater harvesting, conjunctive use of groundwater, treated wastewater, and desalination – even in places that were once seen as possessing relatively abundant water supply. Innovation also means rethinking water “demand.” It means moving away IURP WKH LGHD RI ³XVLQJ´ ZDWHU WRZDUG WKH LGHD RI RSWLPL]LQJ ³EHQH¿WV´ WKDW ZDWHU SURYLGHV 6LJQL¿FDQW LQQRYDWLRQ LV UHTXLUHG LQ DUHDV VXFK DV LPSURYLQJ yields while reducing water use per unit of production. Innovation also means rethinking water “institutions” and “management” and the need to bring the natural sciences, social sciences, politics, and water more effectively together. 4 Improve information By far, the most urgently needed science relates to improving our ability to cope with seasonal water scarcity. Agricultural researchers around the world are arguing that with all of the investments made recently in climate change-related research, it should not be unreasonable to expect far more reliable seasonal water availability predictions. While more and more voices in the water-stressed world are calling for improved seasonal water availability forecasts, very little money is being invested in the monitoring, data collection, and interpretation that are necessary to make improvements in this kind of forecasting possible. In the end, improvements in monitoring and remote sensing necessary for future improvePHQWVLQZDWHUSURGXFWLYLW\DUHQRWJRLQJWREHDFKLHYHGE\VLPSO\LQÀXHQFLQJ the growing environment. An expanded sense of watershed dynamics is required that can only come about as a result of acting on better knowledge of how the broader hydrological cycle functions. In order to achieve these ends, scientists need to communicate better with policy makers just as policy makers have to communicate far better with scientists. And everybody has to communicate better with the public. No one can ignore the urgency of effective action.

Can the world feed itself sustainably? 329 5 Reorder priorities Gleick offered that we may wish to order our water resources policy priorities in the following way:

PHHWWKHQHHGVRIWKHSRRUHVWEXWHVSHFLDOO\RI$IULFD GRQRWLJQRUHWKHSRSXODWLRQJURZWKLVVXHDQGWKHJURZLQJQXPEHURISURElems converging around the challenge of feeding more and more people at the expense of the planet’s ecosystems; FRQWLQXHWRVWULYHWRZDUGKLJKHUZDWHUHI¿FLHQF\DQGSURGXFWLYLW\ FRQWLQXHWRIRFXVRQLQYHVWPHQWLQLPSURYHGWHFKQRORJ\DQGSUDFWLFHVDQG FRQWLQXHDOVRWRLPSURYHJRYHUQDQFHDQGPDQDJHPHQW

Those working in the area of water resources should be heartened by the fact that successful solutions to water problems are available and being implemented every day. We should build on successes and learn from our failures. Finally, the most successful solutions in the future will be those that move beyond ideology; integrate concepts; communicate new information in new ways; and that lead to action.

Note 1 We persist in the use of governance, despite the recent argument that it undervalues the UROH RI JRYHUQPHQW DQG SROLF\ HQWUHSUHQHXUV ZKR DUH XVXDOO\ SXEOLF RI¿FLDOV 6HH Huitema and Meijerink (2009).

References Allan, J.A. (2001) Virtual water – economically invisible and politically silent – a way to solve strategic water problems, International Water and Irrigation, 21(4): 39–41. Bauer, C. (2004) Siren Song: Chiliean Water Law as a Model for International Reform, Washington, DC: Resources for the Future Press. Blatter, J. and Ingram, H. (2001) 5HÀHFWLRQVRQ:DWHU1HZ$SSURDFKHVWR7UDQVERXQGDU\ &RQÀLFWVDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Chapagain, A.K., Hoekstra, A.Y., and Savenije, H.H.G. (2006) Water saving through international trade of agricultural products, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10(3): 455–468. Conca, K. (2006) Governing Water: Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Doremus, H. and Tarlock, A.D. (2008) Water War in the Klamath Basin: Macho Law, Combat Biology, and Dirty Politics, Washington, DC: Island Press. FAO (2009) FAOStat, online, available at: http://faostat.fao.org [accessed August 20, 2009]. Falkenmark, M. (1995) Land-water linkages: a synopsis, Land and Water Integration and River Basin Management, in )$2/DQGDQG:DWHU%XOOHWLQ1R, pp. 15–16, Rome: FAO, online, available at: www.fao.org/docrep/v5400e/v5400e06.htm. Feldman, D.L. (1995). Water Resources Management: In Search of an Environmental Ethic, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.

330 A. Garrido et al. Garrido, A., Llamas, M.R., Varela-Ortega, C., Novo, P., Rodríguez Casado, R., and Aldaya, M.M. (2010) Water Footprint and Virtual Water Trade of Spain: Policy Implications, New York/London: Springer. Gleick, P. (2009). The World’s Water: 2008–2009: The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources, Washington, DC: Island Press. Hoekstra, A.Y. and Chapagain, A.K. (2008) Globalization of Water: Sharing the Planet’s Freshwater Resources, Oxford: Blackwell. Hoff, H., Falkenmark, M., Gerten, D., Gordon, L., Karlberg, L., and Rockström, J. (2010) Greening the global water system, Journal of Hydrology, 384(3–4): 177–186. Huitema, D. and Meijerink, S. (eds.) (2009) Water Policy Entrepreneurs: A Research Companion to Water Transitions around the Globe, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Kuylenstierna, J., Destouni, G., and Lundqvist, J. (2008) Feeding the future world – securing enough food for 10 billion people, in: Swedish Research Council Formas (ed.). Water for Food, Stockholm: Formas, pp. 9–22. The Economist (2009) Outsourcing’s third wave, May 21, 2009. von Braun, J. and Meinzen-Dick, R. (2009) “Land Grabbing” by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries: Risks and Opportunities, IFPRI Policy Brief 13, April 2009, online, available at: www.ifpri.org/publication/land-grabbing-foreign-investorsdeveloping-countries. Whiteley, J, Ingram, H., and Perry, R. (2008) Water, Place and Equity, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. WTO (2008) World Trade Organization International Trade Statistics, online, available at: www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2008_e/its2008_e.pdf [accessed September 2, 2009].

Index

Page numbers in italics denote tables, those in boldGHQRWH¿JXUHV Africa: South 56, 83, 109, 112, 181, 204, 205; sub-Saharan 50–72, 107, 120, 177, 315 agricultural: production 50, 122, 125, 126, 207, 222, 230, 233, 265, 266, 289, 290, 327; water management 30, 52, 53, 68 Agricultural Water Management 31, 32, 71, 86, 98, 100, 131 aquatic ecosystem 4, 6, 52, 104, 105, 111, 138, 146, 150, 169, 174, 179, 181, 188, 192, 193, 195, 262, 265, 277, 286, 302, 321, 328 Aral Sea 152, 178, 183, 184, 185, 321 Arizona Groundwater Management Act 253 Australia/Australian 13–49 $ZXODFKHZ6% %DKUL$± %DQJODGHVK109, 110, 112, 204, 207, 220 %DVLQZLGHSODQQLQJDQGPDQDJHPHQW biodiversity 5, 9, 54, 135–70, 183, 265, 316, 319, 320 biofuel production 172, 327 blue water 9, 68, 95, 97, 103, 104, 105, 106, 109, 110, 111, 113, 114–17, 122, 125–30, 163, 293, 312, 316, 317, 328 %UD]LO 216–21, 314, 315–23 %ULVFRH-±± &KHVDSHDNH%D\186, 242, 252, 321 &OHDYHU-± consumptive water use 110 continental water balance 106 &UDLN:± crop productivity 15, 22, 29, 268, 270, 272

crop yield 16, 24, 25, 30, 53, 105, 110 cropland expansion 104, 107, 112, 316 customary arrangements 57 GHVHUWL¿FDWLRQ± 'LQDU$ drinking water 33, 51, 55, 60, 90, 171, 174, 176, 184, 185, 191, 245, 248, 313 eco-hydrological 6, 7 ecosystem services 5, 10, 57, 67, 91, 116, 135, 137–70, 194, 319–21 ejido producers 229–34 energy production 115, 172, 173, 248 HQYLURQPHQWDOÀRZDVVHVVPHQW impacts 5, 69, 93, 117, 128, 130, 252, 262, 281, 286, 304, 325; quality 186 equity injustices 8 European Commission 88, 99, 304, 305 European Union Common Agricultural Policy 73, 74, 77, 86, 263, 268, 277, 286, 287, 305, 325 European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive 73, 79, 88, 91, 98, 190, 246, 263, 264, 277, 278, 281, 298, 302, 304, 306, 325 evaporation loss 47, 104, 107, 113 Everglades 182, 183, 186, 195, 242, 321 externalities 79, 135, 164, 166, 256, 320 )DONHQPDUN0±± farm subsidies 87 )HUHUHV(±± food: demand 4, 14, 29, 117, 316, 318; VHOIVXI¿FLHQF\110; strategy options 113; supply 3, 105, 114, 130, 214, 227

332 Index *DUULGR$± global: fresh water supply 3; water scarcity 3 green water resource 68, 103, 104, 106, 110–14, 316 Great Ruaha 57, 58, 59, 60, 70, 315 groundwater depletion 100, 233 Hula 152–6, 167 human: health 61, 192; population growth 4 hydropower 52, 58–72, 171, 172, 211–13, 218, 219, 265, 266, 315, 327 hydrosolidarity 251, 259, 260 ,JOHVLDV$± 283, 285, 301, 306–8, 315 India 3, 29, 72, 109, 110, 112, 177, 178, 184, 200, 201, 211–20, 245, 315, 323 ,QJUDP+±±± integrated watershed management 50–72 irrigation: communities 87, 98, 280, 295, HI¿FLHQF\93, 266, 300; supplementary 74, 103, 107; technologies 266, 283, 293, 295 Israel 6, 83, 109, 110, 124, 142, 143, 152–6, 159, 160, 167–70, 275, 276, 315, 317 -RUGDQ5LYHU land productivity 53, 64, 79, 82, 83, 86, 97, 156, 312 livelihoods 50–4, 57, 61, 67, 227, 263, 304, 308 /RXFNV'3± /3-P/PRGHO managing trade-offs 67 0F&DUWQH\0 Mediterranean 6, 19, 74, 77, 82–6, 97, 142, 155, 160, 262–308, 312, 325 Mexico 5, 10, 179, 182, 189, 201, 222–40, 315, 323, 324 Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) 50, 56, 211 Mozambique 56, 109, 204, 208–10, 314 multiple uses 179 0XUUD\'DUOLQJ%DVLQ± Commission 33, 35, 36, 49, 201 Murray River 33–44, 187, 188 1DPDUD5 nature conservation 147, 262 nature’s need for water 5

new global water ethic 8 1LOH%DVLQ± nitrates 79, 152, 289 Pakistan 109, 110–12, 184, 200, 201, 206, 207, 213–21 3ODQ%OHX pollution 15, 54, 61, 63, 68, 79, 135, 144, 152, 159, 164, 177, 185, 243, 317, 327 privatization 224, 228, 231, 232, 241, 245, 256, 258, 326 productive transpiration 107, 113 public policy 4, 88, 253, 277, 326, 327 rainwater: harvesting 52, 107, 114, 316, 328; partitioning 105 5RFNVWU|P-±±± 163, 169 rural-urban linkages 67 6DIULHO8±± salinization 125, 156, 158, 163, 177, 228, 235 6DOO\+ 6DQGIRUG5± sanitation 51–6, 60, 171, 174, 204, 214, 225, 231, 234, 245, 313 Sonora 223–39, 323 Spain/Spanish 73–100 stakeholder dialogue 57, 67 transboundary 51, 57, 67, 99, 194, 238, 259, 313, 323 UNESCO 71, 116, 132, 168, 171, 172, 174, 177, 195, 196, 251, 260, 297 Upper Mississippi River 188–90, 196 urban areas 60, 94, 136, 178, 225, 226, 228, 231, 234, 246, 319 Usangu Wetlands 71 user-pays 245 YDQ.RSSHQ% YDQ5RRLMHQ' vapor shift 107, 109, 110, 113 9DUHOD2UWHJD& 262–308, 325, 330 9DX[+ virtual: water export 118, 119, 120, 121, ZDWHUÀRZV±121, 129, 131; water trade 96, 97, 99, 103, 115–32 wastewater 3, 55, 60–2, 68, 72, 99, 129,

Index 144, 145, 153, 159, 160, 165, 170, 173, 188, 328 water: allocation 24–7, 39, 45, 46, 56, 57, 59, 60, 68, 90, 94, 159, 164–72, 180, 192, 201, 225, 259, 313, 320, 321; GH¿FLHQF\GHPDQG 91, 153, 163, 172, 176, 188, 226, 273, 274, 276, 277–305, 325, 327; footprint 95, 96, 99, 304, 330; markets 29, 88, 98, 223, 234, 240, 245, 258, 323; policy 8, 57, 70, 72, 73, 98–100, 194, 199, 200, 203, 210, 220, 222–40, 246, 252, 253, 259–63, 268, 280, 297, 304–8, 321–6, 330; productivity 79, 90, 100, 103–7, 110, 112–30, 215, 263–71, 303, 312, 315, 317, 325, 328; quality 23, 44, 51, 60, 69, 79, 83, 140, 143, 152, 155, 156, 190, 201, 241, 243, 257, 282; quantity 68; reform 10, 201, 207, 230, 242, 247, 258, 322–4; resource management 68, 72, 192, 215; reuse 68; saving 28, 39, 43, 48, 86, 107, 118, 119,

333

120, 122, 127, 130, 233, 266, 282, 289, 293, 295, 296, 303, 329; scarcity 3, 23–9, 46, 49–51, 63, 66, 75, 77, 90, 91, 98–100, 109, 117, 121–31, 169, 173, 176, 177, 193, 195, 201, 232, 262, 264, 266, 282, 306, 312, 318, 328; shortage 22, 39, 40, 44–7, 105, 109–14, 153, 159, 163, 164, 173, 177, 211, 233, 234, 316; stress 3, 10, 20, 25, 31, 56, 57, 71, 122, 127, 129, 171, 173, 174–80, 193, XVHHI¿FLHQF\± 127–32, 298 Water Framework Directive 73, 79, 88, 91, 98, 190, 191, 246, 263, 264, 277, 278, 281, 298, 302, 304, 306, 325 :LOGHU0± :RUOG%DQN± 204, 207–45, 252, 324