Balancing Renewable Electricity: Energy Storage, Demand Side Management, and Network Extension from an Interdisciplinary Perspective

Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment Volume 40 Book Series of the Europa¨ische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlich-technischer Entwicklungen Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler GmbH edited by Carl Friedrich Gethmann

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Bert Droste-Franke Boris P. Paal Christian Rehtanz Dirk Uwe Sauer Jens-Peter Schneider Miranda Schreurs Thomas Ziesemer l

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Balancing Renewable Electricity Energy Storage, Demand Side Management, and Network Extension from an Interdisciplinary Perspective In collaboration with Ruth Klu¨ser and Theresa Noll

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Series Editor Professor Dr. Dr. h. c. Carl Friedrich Gethmann Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH Wilhelmstraße 56, 53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler Germany On Behalf of the Authors Dr.-Ing. Bert Droste-Franke, Dipl.-Phys. Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH Wilhelmstraße 56, 53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler Germany Desk Editor Friederike Wu¨tscher Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH Wilhelmstraße 56, 53474 Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler Germany Editing Franziska Mosthaf, Wortschleife Augsburg Germany

ISSN 1860-4803 e-ISSN 1860-4811 ISBN 978-3-642-25156-6 e-ISBN 978-3-642-25157-3 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2012930653 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

The Europa¨ische Akademie The Europa¨ische Akademie zur Erforschung von Folgen wissenschaftlichtechnischer Entwicklungen GmbH is concerned with the scientific study of consequences of scientific and technological advance for the individual and social life and for the natural environment. The Europa¨ische Akademie intends to contribute to a rational way of society of dealing with the consequences of scientific and technological developments. This aim is mainly realised in the development of recommendations for options to act, from the point of view of long-term societal acceptance. The work of the Europa¨ische Akademie mostly takes place in temporary interdisciplinary project groups, whose members are recognised scientists from European universities. Overarching issues, e.g., from the fields of Technology Assessment or Ethic of Science, are dealt with by the staff of the Europa¨ische Akademie.

The Series The series Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment (Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung) serves to publish the results of the work of the Europa¨ische Akademie. It is published by the academy’s director. Besides the final results of the project groups the series includes volumes on general questions of ethics of science and technology assessment as well as other monographic studies.

Acknowledgement The project “Energy Storages and Virtual Power Plants for the Integration of Renewable Energies into the Power Supply. Potentials, Innovation Barriers and Implementation Strategies” was supported by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The content of the book is only the authors’ responsibility.

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Preface

Electricity supply is an important economic factor, particularly in industrialised societies. With restrictions in environmental effects, particularly with respect to greenhouse gas emissions, and in resources, technological innovations are called for which can contribute to producing electricity in a more environmentally friendly way than existing systems and at the same time providing sufficient supply security and economic efficiency. The question of challenges for innovation in the energy area was already generally discussed in Volume 18 of this book series which was also published in English translation as: “Sustainable Development and Innovation in the Energy Sector”, Springer Verlag. Based on the findings from the generic analysis in the above-mentioned study, but more focussed on specific technologies, Volume 32 concentrated on the interdisciplinary analysis of the regulation of electrical networks (“Die Regulierung elektrischer Netze. Offene Fragen und Lo¨sungsansa¨tze”), while Volume 36 worked on interdisciplinary perspectives of small fuel cell devices for house energy supply (“Brennstoffzellen und Virtuelle Kraftwerke. Energie-, umwelt- und technologiepolitische Aspekte einer effizienten Hausenergieversorgung”). The current study deals with an again more general problem with specific technological aspects: obtaining low-carbon strategies for balancing weather-caused fluctuations and potential gaps in supply prospectively occurring in systems with high shares of electricity production from renewable sources, particularly if wind and solar radiation are predominantly used. This purpose gains importance in view of the attempts in politics to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, thus, such large shares of wind and solar power are envisaged for future energy systems in several countries, and particularly in the European Union. The study presents the results of the interdisciplinary work in the project “Energy Storages and Virtual Power Plants for the Integration of Renewable Energies into the Power Supply. Potentials, Innovation Barriers and Implementation Strategies”, which was carried out by the Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH and was funded by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). The necessary disciplinary broadness could be assured by using the instrument of ‘interdisciplinary project groups’ followed at the Europa¨ische Akademie. My personal thanks go to the members of the project group who coped with the task of the study, partly with strong personal engagement.

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Additionally, I would like to thank the German Aerospace Center (DLR) for the financial support of the project. The results should provide a scientific foundation for the political discussion about the integration of technologies using renewable energy sources for electricity production and hint at tangible innovation barriers. Furthermore, the study shows ways of adequately implementing strategies for low-carbon options that will be necessary with the high penetration of these technologies in future electricity systems. I hope that this book will get the attention in science, politics and the interested public it deserves. Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler August 2011

Carl Friedrich Gethmann

Foreword

Combating anthropogenic climate change is the major reason for the extensive restructuring of the electricity supply that is currently ongoing. The reduction of greenhouse gases by using renewable instead of fossil sources of energy is a widely accepted measure in this context. Respectively, the share of renewable energies is continuously increasing. In many countries, wind and solar radiation represent the major promising sources. Their availability strongly changes with weather conditions. In order to avoid that short-term fluctuations and long-term gaps in the electricity supply lead to shortages on the demand side, low-carbon technologies have to be developed which can take over the role of balancing supply and demand in such situations. In this context several questions arise: What are the major challenges for balancing energy and power in systems with a high share of electricity produced from renewable sources? Which promising low-carbon and long-term viable technology options for this purpose exist already or can prospectively be developed within the next years? Which obstacles for adequate innovation in that area can already be anticipated now and which strategies could be followed to remove or obviate these? In order to answer these questions, the Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH established the interdisciplinary project group “Energy Storages and Virtual Power Plants for the Integration of Renewable Energies into the Power Supply. Potentials, Innovation Barriers and Implementation Strategies” including experts from the relevant disciplinary areas of technical engineering, environmental science, economics, political science and jurisprudence. The project group started from individual disciplinary contributions, which were further discussed and integrated with regard to the overall task and composed to a consistent study. The major findings were finally condensed in policy recommendations. Most of the interdisciplinary discussions took place during the project group meetings, which were arranged about every 2 months. Two workshops and a conference were used to obtain additional input from experts outside the project group. The first workshop concentrated on discussing results from other studies in the area. The project group would like to thank the external experts for many valuable contributions during the first workshop: Frieder Borggrefe (Universita¨t zu Ko¨ln), Dr. Lueder von Bremen (Universita¨t Oldenburg),

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Dr. Clemens Hoffmann (Siemens AG), Dr. Cornelius Pieper (The Boston Consulting Group) and Detlef F. Sprinz, Ph.D. (Potsdam-Institut fu¨r Klimafolgenforschung). Furthermore, the group is grateful to Dr. Clemens Hoffmann and the Siemens AG for providing the opportunity to use their data for setting up a first version of a pan-European optimisation model considering power production from wind and solar radiation, storage options and grid connections in parallel to this project at RWTH Aachen, the idea for which was born during the first workshop. For the comprehensive review of interim results and valuable recommendations to further work on the subject, the group thanks the participants of the second workshop: Dr. Erik Hauptmeier (RWE AG, Essen), Dr. Wolfgang Woyke (E.ON AG, Mu¨nchen), Dr.-Ing. Michael Ritzau (Bu¨ro fu¨r Energiewirtschaft und technische Planung GmbH (BET), Aachen), Dr. Gerrit Volk (Bundesnetzagentur, Bonn), Ulla Bo¨de (Bundesnetzagentur, Bonn), Thomas Klaus (Umweltbundesamt, Dessau), Professor Uwe Leprich (Hochschule fu¨r Technik und Wirtschaft des Saarlandes, Saarbru¨cken) and Professor Joh.-Christian Pielow (Ruhr-Universita¨t Bochum). Special thanks go to the external contributors to the spring conference of the Europa¨ische Akademie in March 2010 for giving further insights into the studies and concepts with respect to the integration of renewable energies and in particular to the external speakers: Professor Kornelis Blok (Utrecht University), Andreas Brabeck (RWE AG, Essen), Vera Brenzel (E.ON, Du¨sseldorf), Jo¨rg-Werner Haug (citiworks AG, Mu¨nchen); Dr. Wolfram Krause (EWE AG, Oldenburg), Professor Hans Mu¨ller-Steinhagen (German Aerospace Center (DLR), Stuttgart/University of Stuttgart) and Dr.-Ing. Joachim Nitsch (German Aerospace Center (DLR), Stuttgart). Additionally the authors express their thanks to the group member Priv.-Doz. Dr. Dietmar Lindenberger (Universita¨t zu Ko¨ln) for his contributions in many good discussions during the meetings of the project group. Furthermore, thanks are due to Frieder Borggrefe and Dr. Matthias Leuthold for detailed discussions, especially for giving insights into aspects of energy system modelling. Many thanks go also to Dr. Stephan Lingner (Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH) for leading the first workshop and for making his valuable comments and contributions. Finally, the group thanks both Friederike Wu¨tscher (Europa¨ische Akademie GmbH) for the support in the publishing process and Wortschleife Augsburg for efficiently proofreading the text. Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler August 2011

Bert Droste-Franke

Contents

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Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Renewable Energies in the European Energy Mix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Aim and Structure of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Aims for a Long-Term Viable Development of a Renewable-Based Electricity System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 Efficient Allocation and Just Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2 An Operative Action Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Indicators for the Evaluation of Balancing Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Indicators for Environmental Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Indicators for Resource Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Indicators for the Design of the Energy Supply System . . . . . . . 2.3 Political Governance Towards a Renewable Energy Electricity System in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Historical Background, Current Status and Development of Europe’s Energy System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.1 Europe’s Growing Energy Dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.2 Climate Change Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.3 Climate Change as a Driving Force Behind the Search for a Low-Carbon Electricity System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.4 Growing Diversification of the Energy Supply . . . . . . . . 2.3.1.5 Trends in Renewable Energy Production in Europe . . . 2.3.2 Political Governance Activities for Organising the Future Energy System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.1 Regional Cooperation in Developing Renewables . . . . . 2.3.2.2 National Actions Within the EU on Climate Change and Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.3 European Policies for a Low-Carbon Energy Market . . 2.3.2.4 The European Energy Council of 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.5 Moving Towards Higher Emission Reduction Targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2.3.2.6 Roadmap for a Low-Carbon Economy in 2050 . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.7 Supporting Infrastructure Development for Renewable Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2.8 Public Acceptance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.3 Challenges Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Economics of Storing Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1 Energy Economic Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2 Theory of Storing Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2.1 Storing Values Without Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2.2 Storing Values Using Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

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Existing Energy System Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions for the Analysis of Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 Energy System Modelling: A Theoretical Perspective . . . . . . . . . 3.1.2 Basic Approaches in Energy System Analysis Followed in This Study and Data Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.3 Comparison of Relevant Energy System Analyses According to Their General Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters as Inputs for the Analysis of Balancing Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Assumptions in the Political Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Scenario: Intensified Funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Assumptions According to the Lead Scenario 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3 Effects on the Conventional Power Station Park . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3.1 Renewable Energy Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3.2 Fuel Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3.3 Resulting Power Station Parks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.4 Evaluation of Development Paths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment Based on Scenarios for Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Assessing the Demand of Balancing Electrical Energy and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1.1 Effect on the Residual Load and the Available Power Station Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1.2 Characteristics of Possible Wind Calms Lasting Several Days . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1.3 Dimensioning the Necessary Storage Capacity . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Estimation of the Storage Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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4.2 Assessing the Storage Demand Based on an Optimised Pan-European Low-Carbon Electrical Energy Supply Strategy . . . . . . 4.2.1 General Aspects and Boundary Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Power Flow Calculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 System Optimisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 Cost Data and Other Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.5 First Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.6 Discussion of Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

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Technologies for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5.1 Classification of Energy Storage Systems and Systems Offering Positive and Negative Control Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5.2 Technical Description of “Electricity to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies for a Balanced Electrical Energy and Power Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 5.2.1 “Mechanical” Storage Systems for Electric Power . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 5.2.1.1 Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 5.2.1.2 Pumped Hydropower Plants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 5.2.1.3 Hydro Storage Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 5.2.1.4 Flywheels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 5.2.2 “Electrical” Storage Systems for Electric Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 5.2.2.1 Electrochemical Double-Layer Capacitors (“Supercaps”) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 5.2.2.2 Superconducting Coils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 5.2.3 “Chemical” Storage Systems for Electric Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 5.2.3.1 Lead-Acid Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 5.2.3.2 High Temperature Sodium-Based Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 5.2.3.3 Lithium-Ion Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 5.2.3.4 Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) and Nickel-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 5.2.3.5 Redox-Flow Batteries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 5.2.3.6 Hydrogen Storage Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 5.3 Technical Description and Potential of “Electricity to Anything” Energy Storage Technologies for a Balanced Electrical Energy and Power Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 5.3.1 DSM Industrial Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 5.3.2 Balance Provision by Electrical Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 5.3.3 DSM Household Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 5.3.3.1 Technical Potential of DSM in the Household Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 5.3.3.2 Expected Economic Benefits from DSM in the Household Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 5.3.4 Shutdown of Renewable Power Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 5.3.5 Generation of Chemical Fuels such as Hydrogen, Methane or Methanol from Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108

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5.4 Technical Description of “Anything to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies for a Balanced Electrical Energy and Power Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 CHP Plants with Thermal Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.2 Conventional Power Plants Using Fossil, Nuclear, Hydro or Biofuels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 Conclusions on Options for Demand Response and Demand-Side Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Storage Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7 Assessment of Future Viability of the Technologies’ Environmental Issues, Resource Use and System Characteristics . . . 5.7.1 Methodology and Data Applied for Quantitative Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.2 Environmental Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.2.1 Assessment Methodology and Assumptions . . . . . . . . . 5.7.2.2 Environmental External Costs of Balancing Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.2.3 Environmental Impacts of Balancing Technologies Differentiated into Categories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.3 Resource Use . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.3.1 Types and Amounts of Resources Required . . . . . . . . . 5.7.3.2 Current Availability of Relevant Mineral Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.3.3 Resource Potentials for the Production of Balancing Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.4 System Characteristics Relevant for Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.4.1 Supply Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.4.2 Risk Avoidance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.4.3 Openness to Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7.5 Conclusions on the Future Viability of Various Approaches to Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Technology of Electricity Networks and Economical Impacts . . . . . . . 6.1 Assessment of Technical Barriers Considering the Total System Including Network Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.1 Interaction of Load Control with the Distribution Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.2 Transmission Network Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities at the Daily and Seasonal Scales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Distribution Network Requirements for Avoiding Restrictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2 Effects of the Transmission Network Expansion Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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6.2.3 Conclusions on Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 6.3 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 7

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Economic Analysis and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 Problems in a Market Economy without Economic Policy: Weather-Based Supply and Culturally Caused Demand Fluctuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1 The Insurance Function of the Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 Fluctuations and Smoothing of Electricity Demand: Energy Saving Reduces the Demand for Storage Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.3 Fluctuations and Smoothing of Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.4 Coordination of Supply and Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.5 Aspects of Long-Run Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.6 Towards a Theory of Location for Storage Facilities . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Analysis of Economic Framework Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Introduction: The Theory of Economic Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2 The Theory of Economic Policy in the Area of Environmental and Technology Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2.1 Tradable CO2 Permits, Taxes and Other Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2.2 Research and Technical Progress: Trusting Markets Only Versus Support for Complementary Technologies? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2.3 Beyond Pigovian Corrections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2.4 Policies for Imported Resources and Political Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.3 The Current Practice of Government Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4 Stylised Views on Economic Policy: First Best, Second Best, History and Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4.1 First Best . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4.2 Second Best . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4.3 Historical Heritage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4.4 Transition to Science Based Views . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.5 Economic Policy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Legal Analysis of Balancing Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 Introductory Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 Energy Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Centralised Storage Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1.1 Planning and Licensing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1.2 Regulatory Incentives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1.3 Access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1.4 Unbundling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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163 163 164 166 166 167 168 169 169 170 170

171 172 172 172 173 173 174 175 175 176 177 179 179 180 180 180 181 181 184

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8.2.2 Decentralised Storage Systems, Especially E-mobility . . . . . . . 8.2.2.1 Legal Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.2.2 Contractual Relationships Within Networks . . . . . . . . . 8.2.2.3 Questions Concerning Data Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 Balancing Strategies in Distribution Grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 Smart Meter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1.1 Topics Regarding Data Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1.2 Contractual Relationships in Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2 Smart Grid/Demand-Side Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2.1 Data Protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.2.2 Contractual Relationships in Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 Transmission Network Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.1 The Status Quo for Planning and Licensing of Network Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.2 The Status Quo of Investment Regulation as Part of Economic Energy Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.2.1 Unbundling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.2.2 Network Investment Duties for TSOs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.2.3 Investment Planning Duties of TSOs as an Instrument of Reflexive Steering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.2.4 Investment Incentives and Securing Investments as an Aspect of Price Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.3 Concepts for a Reform of Planning, Licensing and Regulating of Network Expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.3.1 National Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.3.2 European Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4.4 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Conclusions and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 Overall Aim and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Challenges and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.1 Development of Technical Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.2 Framework Conditions and Organisational Aspects . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.2.1 Market Conditions for Balancing Technologies . . . . . . 9.2.2.2 Specific Support for the Application of Balancing Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

185 185 187 189 190 190 191 195 195 196 196 196 197 200 201 201 203 205 207 207 209 211 213 213 214 215 217 217 220

References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 List of Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 Further volumes of the series Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment (Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251

Abbreviations

2040+ AA-CAES ACER AEUV ARegV BEWAG BDEW BDSG BGB BMU

BMWi BNetzA BRIC Br BVerfGE CAES CC CCS CH4 CHP CL CO2 CSP ct/kWh

Possible situation in 2040, 2050 or later Adiabatic-Compressed Air Energy Storage European Agency for the Cooperation of the Energy Regulators Vertrag u¨ber die Arbeitsweise der Europa¨ischen Union (see also TFEU) Anreizregulierungsverordnung (Incentive Regulation Ordinance) Berliner Sta¨dtische Elektrizita¨tswerke Aktien-Gesellschaft Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (Federal Association of Energy and Water Industry) Bundesdatenschutzgesetz (Federal Data Privacy Law) Bu¨rgerliches Gesetzbuch (Civil Law Code) Bundesministerium fu¨r Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety) Bundesministerium fu¨r Wirtschaft und Technologie (Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology) Bundesnetzagentur (Federal Network Agency) Group of the four (big emerging) nations Brazil, Russia, India and China Bromium Bundesverfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court) Compressed Air Energy Storage Combined Cycle Carbon Capture and Storage Methane Combined Heat and Power Controllable Loads Carbon Dioxide Concentrated Solar Power Cent per kilowatt hour

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xviii

DECP DENA DIN DLR DOD DR DSM E-DeMa

E2P EC EDLC EEC EEFA EEG EMEP EnLAG ENTSO-E EnWG EU EU-15 EU-27 EUCO Eurostat ETG ETS EWI Fe FPC GasNZV GDP

Abbreviations

Decentralised Energy Conversion Plants Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (German Energy Agency) Deutsches Institut fu¨r Normung e.V. (German Institute for Standardisation) Deutsches Zentrum fu¨r Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (German Aerospace Center) Depth of Discharge Demand Response Demand Side Management Project on “Development and demonstration of locally networked energy systems to the E-Energy marketplace of the future” Energy to power ratio – installed capacity in kWh divided by the peak power in kW European Commission Electrochemical Double-Layer Capacitors European Energy Council Energy Environment Forecast Analysis (EEFA GmbH & Co. KG) Gesetz fu¨r den Vorrang Erneuerbarer Energien (Erneuerbare EnergienGesetz) (Renewable Energy Law) European Monitoring Evaluation Programme Gesetz zum Ausbau von Energieleitungen (Power Lines Expansion Law) European Network of Transmission System Operators for Energy Gesetz u¨ber die Elektrizita¨ts- und Gasversorgung (Energiewirtschaftsgesetz) (German Energy Act) European Union European Union (member states before eastward enlargement) European Union (all current members) European Council Statistical Office of the European Union Energietechnische Gesellschaft im VDE (Society for Energy Technics) Emission Trading Scheme Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universita¨t zu Ko¨ln (Energy Economic Institute at the University of Cologne) Iron Final Power Consumption Verordnung u¨ber den Zugang zu Gasversorgungsnetzen (Gas Network Access Ordinance) Gross Domestic Product

Abbreviations

GIC GIL GKSS

GPP GS GT GW GWh GWB GWP GWS HCB HU HV HVDC IAEA ICCG ICE ICT IEA IER

IfnE IGCC IPCC ISO ITO kV kVA kW kWh kWh/a KWKG

LCC LNG LNS LV

xix

Gas-Insulated Conductors Gas-Insulated Lines Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum fu¨r Material- und Ku¨stenforschung GmbH (Centre for Materials and Coastal Research) Gross Power Production Gas and Steam Power Station Gas Turbine Power Station Gigawatt Gigawatt hour Gesetz gegen Wettbewerbsbeschra¨nkung (Act Against Restraints of Competition) Global warming potential (assessed for a specific time horizon) Gesellschaft fu¨r wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (Institute of Economic Structures Research) House Connection Boxes Housing Units High-Voltage High-Voltage Direct Current International Atomic Energy Agency International Centre for Climate Governance Internal Combustion Engine Information and Communication Technology International Energy Agency Institut fu¨r Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy), Universita¨t Stuttgart Ingenieurbu¨ro fu¨r neue Energien Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Independent System Operator Independent Transmission Operator Kilovolt Kilovolt-Ampere Kilowatt Kilowatt hour Kilowatt hour per year Gesetz fu¨r die Erhaltung, die Modernisierung und den Ausbau der Kraft-Wa¨rme-Kopplung (Kraft-Wa¨rmeKopplungsgesetz) Life Cycle Costs Liquefied Natural Gas Local Network Station Low-Voltage

xx

MV MVA MW MWh NaBr NaBr3 NaNiCl2 Battery NaS Battery Na2S2 Na2S4 NAV

NCC NEEDS NH3 NiCd Battery NiMH Battery NMVOC NOx ODP OECD PDA PHEV PIA PLC ppb PSS pu PV R&D RD&D RE RES ROV r.p.m. SO2 SRU SVC

Abbreviations

Medium-Voltage Megavolt-Ampere Megawatt Megawatt hour Sodium Bromide Sodium Tribromide Sodium-Nickel-Chloride Battery, also ZEBRA battery Sodium-Sulphur Battery Disodium Disulphide Sodium Tetrasulfide Verordnung u¨ber Allgemeine Bedingungen fu¨r den Netzanschluss und dessen Nutzung fu¨r die Elektrizita¨tsversorgung in Niederspannung (Netzanschlussverordnung) (Ordinance for Regulating Grid Connection) Network Connection Capacity New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability (integrated project) Ammonia Nickel-Cadmium Battery Nickel-Metal-Hybride Battery Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds Nitrogen Oxides (reactive oxides of nitrogen, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen monoxide (NO)) Ozone Layer Depletion Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Personal Digital Assistant Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Privacy Impact Assessment Power Supply Infrastructure Parts per billion Pump Storage Station Per unit system Photovoltaics Research and Development Research, Development and Demonstration Renewable Energies Renewable Energy Sources Raumordungsverordnung (Regional Planning Procedure) Revolutions Per Minute Sulphur Dioxide Sachversta¨ndigenrat fu¨r Umweltfragen (German Advisory Council for Environmental Issues) Static Var Compensator

Abbreviations

TEN TEN-E TFEU TREC TSO TWh UCTE UK UPS USA USGS VDE V2+, V3+, V4+, V5+ VRLA Wh Wh/kg WTO YOLL ZEBRA

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Transeuropean Networks Transeuropean Energy Networks Treaty on the Function of the European Union Trans-Mediterreanean Renewable Energy Corporation Transmission System Operator Terawatt hour Union for the Co-Ordination of Transmission of Electricity United Kingdom Uninterruptible Power Supply United States of America United States Geological Survey Verband der Elektrotechnik Elektronik Informationstechnik (Association for Electrical, Electronic & Information Technologies) Vanadium in various oxidation states Valve-Regulated Lead-Acid Watt hour Watt hour per kilogram World Trade Organisation Years of Life Lost s. NaNiCl2 Battery

.

Summary

Background and Aim of the Study An important aim behind the restructuring of Germany’s and Europe’s electricity systems is to reduce their environmental burden, especially with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions must be brought down to a level that is sustainable in the long-run and consistent with greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Meeting these goals will require a system that will be able to cope simultaneously with the fundamental demands for economic efficiency, environmental sustainability and supply security. Making use of existing scenarios, this study sketches such a system. It focuses in particular on auxiliary systems for electricity production, such as energy storage methods and network extensions. The study introduces technologies that can balance electricity in energy systems and that can serve as enabling technologies for the integration of large quantities of renewable energies in the power supply system. It begins with a discussion of normative aims for the future electricity system before continuing with a description of current policies and political developments and an overview of relevant existing energy system studies. These sections serve as background for the remainder of the study. They are followed by discussion and analysis of the growing demand for means to balance the fluctuations found in electricity generated in power systems with a high penetration of renewable energies, the potentials of diverse technologies, requirements for electrical networks, economic impacts and important legal issues. Finally, the main challenges to the achievement of developing balancing technologies and processes for renewable electricity-dominant systems are summarised and recommendations made. With respect to the legal regulations, the status quo as of April 2011 is assumed in the study.

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Summary

Aims for the Future and the Status Quo of Electricity Systems in Europe The basic normative aims underlying this study of a future renewable electricitydominated system are tied to the general economical principals of efficient allocation and just distribution. These principals are critical to characterising and evaluating policies and options that could become part of a future electricity system. Diverse economic discussions point to several trade-offs that exist among technical efficiency, low prices and environmental constraints. However, they also reveal that these trade-offs can be resolved by use of an action rule that is formulated on four priorities (see Sect. 2.1 of the main text): 1. protection of the environment and, thus, society from unacceptable effects; 2. preservation of the total value of produced and natural capital; 3. maximisation of the intertemporal welfare of current and future generations under the restrictions of the first and second priorities; and 4. just distribution of basics for meeting needs at present. The action rule can be filled with content by applying indicators that evaluate technologies, policies and developments with respect to their environmental and societal aspects. The classification that was chosen for the evaluation of energy systems subdivides between protection of the environment, resource use and availability, and system characteristics with respect to society (see Sect. 2.2 of the main text). An analysis of the political processes in the last about 20 years shows the development and potential shortcomings of energy politics (see Sect. 2.3 of the main text). Experts are worried about the potential unacceptable damage to the environment and society that could be caused by climate change. This has led to the establishment of limits on emissions of greenhouse gases. These limits have been defined politically by the international community. Experts’ concerns are also the basis for the politically set quotas for energy produced from renewable technologies. Renewable energy’s share of electricity production in Europe has shown large growth rates in recent years. This growth is expected to continue into the future. Still, there are many governance challenges ahead. For example, it will be necessary to encourage the international energy market, particularly in European countries, to strengthen technical infrastructure, and especially, electricity grids. It will also be important to assess to what extent Europe’s rising competence in energy questions should be further extended. In addition, it will be necessary to find ways to address opposition to large-scale projects that may be acceptable from certain long-term environmental and societal normative perspectives, but may still encounter opposition among parts of society that object for various reasons to their development. This holds also for large-scale projects tied to technical systems that will be required for an expansion of renewable energy use. Adequate procedures for assuring stakeholder participation in decision-making processes will be essential. Theoretical investigations about storing electricity as a means of storing economic value (s. Sect. 2.4 of the main text) identify three options that can be followed to

Summary

xxv

balance the demand for and supply of electricity in a system with a high amount of power produced from wind and solar radiation. First is to expand grid connections, particularly for transboundary transmissions, and to adjust the installation of wind and solar power to enable good potentials for the exchange of electricity in times of regional shortages. Second is to over-install conventional power plant capacity, for example, with natural gas-fired facilities, in order to be able to compensate a lack in supply. Third is to build options for energy storage and to introduce measures that can influence demand for electricity.

Existing Energy System Analyses Continents are the appropriate scale for analyses of the technical and economical potentials for electricity systems that can balance electricity demand and supply at the regional level. Yet, in Europe, energy policy is still to a large extent seen as a matter of national sovereignty and competence. This means that for this interdisciplinary analysis, national energy scenarios and targets are primarily used. The case of Germany is taken as an example of a large nation in Europe with a strong economy and ambitious targets for the development of renewable energies. A review of studies (see Sect. 3.1 of the main text) showed that two main methodological approaches are followed by policy-oriented analyses of electricity systems in Germany. For those analysing the time period of the next 10–20 years, temporal exploratory scenarios building on economic optimisation mechanisms tend to be made. For scenarios that cover the present up to about 2050, a target system is typically defined and pathways for realising it are then analysed. Comparing the main scenarios calculated for Germany reveals the importance of being clear about the assumptions being used, using consistent parameters and carrying out further sensitivity analyses. This is crucial for purposes of interpretation and development of policy support based on the findings of the basically complementary studies. The approach chosen for the system analyses in this study is: First, to investigate how a long-term viable energy system could be realised. This is to be done by analysing potential future scenarios where there is a high share of renewable energies in the system and low-carbon balancing strategies are employed. And second, to identify factors which can or should be adapted to realise adequate framework conditions for the innovation processes needed for achieving a longterm viable energy system. It was beyond the scope of this study to develop completely new scenarios that include an energy conversion system. Instead, with the goal of concentrating attention on balancing technologies in systems with a high share of renewables, two existing scenarios have been selected as a starting point for analysis (see Sect. 3.2 of the main text): the “lead scenario 2009” that follows a roadmapping approach (Nitsch and Wenzel 2009) and an explorative political scenario with ambitious environmental aims (scenario “III” from Lindenberger et al. 2008). Scenarios of the requirements for balancing electricity supply and demand are

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Summary

investigated for 2030 and “2040+”.1 The analysis produced for 2040+ based on the outcome of the “lead scenario” shows that additional measures such as storage, peak load control or securing renewable energy imports will be required to realise a functioning power system.

Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power when there is a High Penetration of Renewable Energies in the System Looking in more detail into the technical characteristics of the two selected scenarios for representative days (“type days”) in Germany with respect to the residual load (see Sect. 4.1.1.1 of the main text), i.e., the load that could not be covered by the remaining controllable power generators in the system, reveals for the lead scenario a maximum temporal power deficiency in 2030 of 7 GW and in 2040+ of 18 GW. For 2030, the maximum temporal power surplus results are 13.7 GW and for 2040, 24 GW. Four TWh of electricity in 2030 (1.4% of annual total feed-in of renewables) and 21 TWh in 2040+ (4.7% of annual total feed-in of renewables) cannot be used in the system. These numbers show that there is a potential for using storage technologies. The dimension that storage options should take is mainly determined by the additional power and energy required during wind calms (see Sects. 4.1.1.2 and 4.1.1.3 of the main text). Analysing wind calms of several strengths and lengths shows that if these are to be covered only by storing electricity, storage power has to cover in total 18 GW in 2030 and 35 GW in 2040+. The energy capacity of the storage options in order to cope with the maximum energy demand has to amount in total to 600 GWh in 2030 and 1,700 GWh in 2040+. The dimension of the storage facilities is, in the 2030 scenario, determined by wind calms in which 5% of the installed power is not exceeded (in other words, at least 95% reduction) during 87 h, and in 2040+ by long wind calms (218 h) with at least 80% power reduction. The requirements could be lowered to the extent secured electricity can be imported. Assuming exemplary compressed air energy storages (CAES) and neglecting peak reductions in the calculation of generation costs, net-benefits from applying energy storage facilities can be calculated (see Sect. 4.1.2 of the main text). The calculations show that reductions in generation costs, in the case of 15 GW additional storage power, exceed for the case of 2040+ the annuities of the investment, which means that using CAES with the assumed characteristics would be economical, even if the opportunity of getting peak prices is not considered. Additional to this analysis of scenarios for Germany, a pan-European modelling approach was developed and realised during the study (see Sect. 4.2 of the main text). It optimises the system of power production from wind and solar radiation, electricity network and energy storages on the basis of hourly meteorological data for 7 years and technical and cost estimates for a future period around 2040 and

1

2040+ represents a situation in a year around 2040 or later.

Summary

xxvii

beyond. Historical “burden”, in the form of already existing power plants, was neglected in order to analyse an optimised system without restrictions other than weather conditions, specific costs and available technologies. First model runs have been performed. The model mechanism relies on a genetic algorithm, optimising “individuals” specified by the various characteristics of the electricity system, expressed in cost values.

Technologies for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power Looking at attributes of different technologies for balancing electrical energy and power reveals that the performance of a technology strongly depends on the specific situation for which it should be applied. Accordingly, technology options including storage technologies, as well as demand-side management and conventional power plants, can be categorised based on the following characteristics (see Sects. 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, and 5.5 of the main text): A) type and location of the systems, B) duration and frequency of supply, C) type of input and output energy. Simulating the application for different typical cases allows the derivation of cost estimates, which can be projected to future years (see Sect. 5.6 of the main text). According to the results of this analysis, the following can be said for the different analysed tasks. The assumed technical requirements are listed in brackets: – Long-term storage (power2: 500 MW, available energy: 100 GWh, 1.5 cycles per month): For this task, costs of 10 €ct/kWh seem to be achievable using the option of storing electrical energy in the form of hydrogen, which is much lower than the estimated achievable costs for compressed air energy storage (CAES) (about 23 €ct/kWh). The potentials in Germany are high. In contrast, the option of pumped hydro is, with achievable costs of less than 5 €ct/kWh, much cheaper, but offers only small potential in Germany, and transferring electricity from outside Germany, e.g., from Scandinavia will prospectively require the expansion of transmission lines. In case an extra line has to be built for the storage option and the line is only used for this purpose, the total costs may reach the same level as those that could be achieved by hydrogen storage. – Load levelling in the transportation grid (power: 1 GW, available energy: 8 GWh, 1 cycle per day): For this task pumped hydro plants are also interesting with the same cost values as for long-term storage. Additionally, compressed air storage technologies, especially the adiabatic variant with achievable costs also below 5 €ct/kWh, could become interesting alternatives. Furthermore, batteries can well be used

2

Charging/discharging power are set equal for the definition of tasks.

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for load levelling, although they are more expensive than the other two options. They show the advantage of being able to deliver also primary reserve. – Peak shaving in the distribution grids (power: 100 kW, available energy: 250 kWh, 2 cycles per day): In this area, several battery systems, including zinc-bromine, vanadium redoxflow, lithium-ion, nickel-cadmium, lead-acid and sodium-sulphur or sodiumchloride are competing. The best guess, from today’s point of view, would estimate the achievable costs for sodium systems to be the lowest, followed by the lead-acid technology, which is the cheapest variant at present. Additionally to the options that could be economical due to low specific costs, potentials from the double use of storage technologies, such as batteries for electric vehicles and small photovoltaic systems in houses, could also be relevant in the future. The total potential of demand-side management, including electric vehicles, combined heat and power plants, control of industrial load, heat pumps and white goods, is estimated to be around 16–23 GW theoretically and about 10 GW taking consumer acceptance into account. Beyond the installation of storage options, the shutting-down of wind and solar power plants during extreme high supply peak events will still be necessary from technical, economical and legal points of view. As for the future viability of storage systems, life cycle screenings of relevant technologies show that the expected large reductions of CO2 in the energy system will lead to a higher importance of emissions generated in the production of materials (see Sect. 5.7.2 of the main text). Due to high emissions of SO2 in some important processes, ecosystem effects may gain interest. With a much lower use of fossil energy resources projected for the future, the use and availability of mineral resources, particularly for the production and application of new energy technologies, including balancing technologies, will become increasingly important. An analysis of the availability of these mineral resources in terms of their reserve-to-production ratio, high regional concentration of reserves, and prices and price changes (see Sect. 5.7.3 of the main text), shows that of the analysed substances only titanium is unproblematic. There are also only a few problems with availability for lithium, vanadium, arsenic, nickel and zircon oxide. Concerning mineral resources used in batteries, large-scale use of lithium type, lead-acid and vanadium batteries will require high recycling rates and potentially the development of substitutes in the long run. Analysing a set of indicators gathered from relevant publications for system characteristics of balancing technologies with small modular systems provide a positive picture (see Sect. 5.7.4 of the main text). In contrast, large central systems may be linked to problems of import dependency, may require large efforts to reach sufficient redundancy, and face acceptance issues in the local population. This suggests the importance of participatory decision-making processes. Additionally, adequate measures have to be implemented to keep the risk of accidents with sudden uncontrolled release of the stored energy low. In order not to hamper the development of options for balancing supply and demand of electricity at a high

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share of renewable energy use, implemented funding schemes have to be designed to be technologically neutral.

Electricity Network Aspects Expanding the use of renewable resources for electricity production and using the balancing options discussed above also requires an extension of electricity grids. This concerns both the transmission and the distribution grid, nationally and internationally. An investigation of technical restrictions in distribution grids (see Sects. 6.1.1 and 6.2.1 of the main text) shows that with the enabling of demand-side management, the capacities of distribution grids will soon be reached due to an increase in simultaneity of load. Breaching the operation boundaries can be avoided by coordinating load and generation in the distribution grid. In order to maximise demand-side management also with respect to maximal acceptance, automated procedures should be developed. The total costs of network reinforcements necessary with a penetration of decentralised controllable loads, which can be expected from 2020 onwards, are estimated to be about 1,000 € per household. These are high compared to the estimated annual generation cost savings of about 18 € per household. Based on calculations for the transmission grid with typical days (“type days”) (see Sects. 6.1.2 and 6.2.2 of the main text), an extension of about 3,000 km or more is needed in the long run to cope with the regional shifting of feed-in towards substantial offshore expansion. However, this installation would be able to cope only with about 70% of the maximum installed wind capacity. In rare extreme situations in which wind power exceeds 70% of the maximal power, electricity generation will have to be curtailed to prevent damage to the grid infrastructure. Furthermore, extreme exchange of electricity with neighbouring countries is not accounted for in the assessment of required grid extension in this study. Other studies allowing extreme offshore feed-in and exchange result in a required expansion of about 3,500 km already in 2020. Considering the current status and the anticipated advance of technology development, the most plausible technologies applied will be a combination of conventional overhead lines with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines. The investments in the long term (2040+) can thus be estimated, through calculations on the basis of type days, amounting to 6–8 billion €, or about 0.2–0.35 €ct/kWh of feed-in from wind power plants.

Economic Policy Options for the Use of Storage Systems The theoretical analysis of potential problems in a market economy due to weatherdependent electricity supply and culturally caused demand fluctuations (see Sect. 7.1 of the main text) shows that several benefits can be gained from applying

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balancing options in the electricity system. An improvement of the cross-border infrastructure can help dampen the fluctuations caused by deliveries from regions with high supply/demand ratios to those with low supply/demand ratios. Suppliers as well as traders could be interested in operating storage systems. While suppliers will prospectively locate the systems close to the source, traders will tend to locate them close to customers. Grid operators ideally could locate storage facilities close to points in the network with high instability. However, the European Union’s unbundling directive currently does not allow grid operators to operate energy storage systems to any significant extent. The benefits for markets and society to be derived from energy storage facilities can justify policy intervention (see Sect. 7.2 of the main text). With the use of storage systems, the stability of supply will be enhanced, environmental externalities – particularly those caused by climate change – will be reduced, monopoly power in times of scarce supply could be reduced by strengthening decentralised renewable energy systems, and the reliance on technologies with uninsurable uncertainty (nuclear power) can be reduced, or in the case of Germany, eliminated. For historical reasons, however, other technologies are being supported by governmental funding. Considering practical realities, funding beyond the currently provided support for research, development and demonstration projects is important.

Legal Analysis of Framework Conditions There are several major legal issues with respect to installing strategies for balancing demand and supply of electricity which are brought to light by this study’s legal analysis. The issues can be subdivided into: central storage systems (see Sect. 8.2 of the main text) and decentralised storage systems, including the options of demand-side management and smart grids (see Sect. 8.3 of the main text), and the expansion of transmission networks (see Sect. 8.4 of the main text). With respect to central storage systems, in the cases of both current and pending laws, it is necessary to clarify whether the application of storage technologies applies to the supply layer or the grid layer. The legal classification influences how civil law applies to such issues as non-discriminating use and access as well as unbundling. Several disincentives and barriers to making investments into storage technologies can be identified in existing legislation. The actors most affected are the producers of electricity from renewable energies and the transmission system operators who are obliged by the German Renewable Energy Law (ErneuerbareEnergien-Gesetz (EEG)) to buy and market “renewable power”. Additionally, a special planning regime for utilising underground resources could help to mitigate potential conflicts among the users themselves and between them and the respective landowners. In order to not hamper the development of energy storage technologies through legal regulation, disincentives should be abolished. For decentralised storage systems, particularly e-mobility, smart grid and demandside management, contractual issues related to the completely new actors and networks that will emerge will have to be defined. Such issues as duties of care,

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cooperation and information provision, as well as conditions of use will need to be addressed. The possibility that such technological systems could lead to the creation of far-reaching and extremely detailed individual mobility and energy use profiles requires consideration of the extent to which current legislation can deal with data protection concerns. This is especially the case considering the quantity and quality of data that will be collected as well as the new kinds of assessments, processing and use of that data which may occur. New solutions that could lie within or outside the existing legal framework for data protection will have to be assessed. Current regulations covering procedures for the expansion of transmission grids are very diverse but also, in certain areas, dysfunctional. Most problematic appear to be the punctual investment duties of network operators tackled in civil court procedures, not adequately considering macroeconomic aspects (e.g., } 9 EEG). A more comprehensive and systematic approach is needed. For the national level, a fundamental reform model for strategic transmission investment projects could improve the situation. Some refinements and standardisation including, for instance, good practice guidelines for public hearing procedures may improve the handling of conflicts with the affected local population. The potentials for reforms on the EU level are limited. However, a better coordination on this level would be useful.

Challenges and Recommendations The requirements for balancing electrical energy in the system will increase with the rising share of electricity produced from renewable energies. As the above summary of the analysis made in this study indicates, several challenges are tied to the introduction of low CO2 emission options, including energy storage systems, demand-side management, the over-installation of capacity in electricity production, and grid expansion, that could provide the stable electricity performance needed in different locations in Europe. Done correctly, these systems could provide stable performance at all relevant time scales from seconds to days to weeks. To conclude, the 13 challenges that were identified in this study (see Sect. 9.2 of the main text) are listed together with summaries of the respective recommendations that were drawn up for addressing them. Challenge 1: Providing Sufficient Storage Capacity for Germany – A mix of storage options should be installed, which is coordinated with respect to network restrictions, in order to limit the shutting down of facilities in high supply peak situations and provide low-carbon options for filling gaps. – International networks should be established to further develop and use large storage potentials in some European countries. – Over-installation in capacity of wind and solar power plants together with sufficient transporting capacity should be considered as options.

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– Alternative technical options should be further analysed, e.g., using gas networks for storing energy. – Disincentives from legal regulation should be removed and avoided in the future. – RD&D of technologies should be intensified in order to reduce costs of storage technologies.

Challenge 2: Realising Technical Potentials of Decentralised Options – Automated technical solutions to control loads should be developed in order to prevent reductions of user comfort. – Flexible tariffs should be introduced to increase the acknowledgement of scarcities and temporally changing values of electric energy. – Data requirements should be minimised in the required control procedures and adequate data protection regimes should be installed. – RD&D for standardisation should be further pushed with respect to automated load management.

Challenge 3: Managing Environment and Resource Use – Appropriate design of technologies should include early assessments of potential hindrances to a technology’s large-scale application due to limited supply of required resources or environmental effects. – Continuous monitoring of specific resource use and markets should be carried out during development. – RD&D of mineral recycling and substitutes should be established and respective procedures implemented where necessary.

Challenge 4: Providing Sufficient Network Capacity for Electricity Transport – Acceleration of planning procedures should be established by means of more structured mechanisms. – Strengthening of national and European interests in relation to regional interests in network extension should be reached through reforming the respective regulation systems. – R&D should be fostered by the regulator through accepting the respective costs for refunding.

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Challenge 5: Adequate Implementation of Balancing Technologies in Regulations – Attributions and definitions with respect to balancing technologies should be clarified in the relevant regulations. – Decisions on attributing storage facilities to the grid or power generation level should be made by the legislator.

Challenge 6: Designing a European Energy Market – Exchange of electricity should be enabled by further strengthening the transmission grid. – A low-carbon energy framework should be implemented for Europe, which is comprehensive, long-term oriented and far-reaching/challenging and goes beyond 2020. – Europe’s electricity generation markets should be further integrated.

Challenge 7: Removing the Historical Heritage of Subsidies and Taxes – Ideal economic framework conditions should be established by taking back outdated subsidies and taxes and installing consistent measures such as demonstration projects and temporally limited startup subsidies instead on a stepwise basis. – Historically determined drawbacks in framework conditions should be countered by temporary subsidies and tax arrangements.

Challenge 8: Transforming Market Externalities to Costs and Earnings – Socio-economic benefits should be internalised through establishing respective markets and compensation mechanisms. – Costs of system services should be internalised by installing mechanisms for power generators paying for provided system services, including grids that they require for proper facility operation. – Advantages of coordination between production of electricity from renewable energies, grid management and usage of storage technologies for benefits realisation should be analysed. – Potential business cases should be analysed in detail. – Detailed system analysis of benefits from applying balancing technologies should be performed as a basis for policy decisions.

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Challenge 9: Handling New Complex Market Structures – Contractual challenges in the new markets should be analysed in detail. – General legal measures for new markets should be developed.

Challenge 10: Strengthening Scientific Advice on Balancing Options – Energy system analysis should be extended by means of intensive research with full-scale models, including the coordinated cooperation of relevant institutions with complementing models. – Large-scale projects on energy system modelling should be established and the advantages of institutionalisation, allowing regular updating and monitoring of system developments, should be analysed. – The European perspective, considering different national politics, should be mandatory for extended energy system analyses. – The required installed power and energy capacity should be analysed in detail as one major focus of future studies.

Challenge 11: Adequately Supporting the Application of New Technologies – Startup subsidies based on market mechanisms should be implemented, and phased out automatically to the level of externality compensation in order to adequately promote the application of promising technologies. – Investments in RD&D for storage systems should be increased.

Challenge 12: Adequately Supporting Long-Term Investments – Political decisions on boundary conditions on a national and international level should be reliably fixed for the long term, in line with basic principles of European competition policy. – A sound basis for decisions on boundary conditions should be generated by extended energy system analysis.

Challenge 13: Handling Opposition to Large-Scale Projects – Adequate mechanisms for the participation of affected parties and the wider public in decision making should be implemented. – Installing a special planning regime for underground resources should be analysed with respect to its potential for mitigating possible conflicts among the relevant interest groups. – Measures for conflict resolution, such as the provision of adequate compensation measures should be further analysed and – where appropriate – applied.

Zusammenfassung

Hintergrund und Zielsetzung Ein wesentliches Ziel der Umstrukturierung des Elektrizita¨tssystems in Deutschland und Europa ist die Reduzierung der erzeugten Umweltbelastung, vor allem durch Treibhausgase, auf ein langfristig zukunftsfa¨higes Maß. Es wurden Minderungsziele fu¨r Emissionsmengen festgelegt, deren Einhaltung langfristig zu einer akzeptablen Belastung von Umwelt und Gesellschaft fu¨hren soll. Eine wichtige Grundlage fu¨r die Einhaltung dieser Ziele ist die schrittweise Entwicklung eines Elektrizita¨tssystems, das zuku¨nftig den Anforderungen von o¨konomischer Effizienz, Umweltfreundlichkeit und Versorgungssicherheit gerecht werden kann. Die vorliegende Studie skizziert ein solches System basierend auf verfu¨gbaren Szenarien. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf technischen Systemen zur Unterstu¨tzung der eigentlichen Elektrizita¨tserzeugung wie Energiespeichern und Netzausbau. In der Studie werden Technologien diskutiert, mit denen die Nachfrage und das Angebot an Elektrizita¨t ausgeglichen werden, womit die Nutzung großer Mengen Elektrizita¨t aus erneuerbaren Energien ermo¨glicht werden kann. Zuna¨chst werden normative Ziele fu¨r das zuku¨nftige Elektrizita¨tssystem vorgestellt und die derzeitige Entwicklung in Politik, Gesellschaft und Technologien beschrieben; ¨ berblick u¨ber bestehende relevante Energiesystemstudien. Diese es folgt ein U Arbeiten dienen als Grundlage fu¨r weitere Analysen, anhand derer der Bedarf an Ausgleichskapazita¨t in Systemen mit hohem Anteil erneuerbarer Energien in der Elektrizita¨tserzeugung abgescha¨tzt wird, Potentiale verschiedener Technologien diskutiert werden, Anforderungen an elektrische Netze ermittelt werden, Kosten und Politikoptionen untersucht werden, wichtige regulatorische Aspekte behandelt werden und, abschließend, Empfehlungen zu den identifizierten Herausforderungen formuliert werden. Maßgeblich fu¨r die Untersuchungen ist der Stand der gesetzlichen Regelungen im April 2011.

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Ziele fu¨r eine zukunftsfa¨hige Entwicklung und der Status Quo von Elektrizita¨tssystemen in Europa Zur Ableitung grundlegender normativer Ziele fu¨r ein zukunftsfa¨higes Elektrizita¨tssystem werden in der Studie die fundamentalen wirtschaftlichen Prinzipien der effizienten Allokation und der gerechten Verteilung herangezogen. Diese werden operationalisiert, um politisches Handeln und Optionen fu¨r ein zuku¨nftiges Elektrizita¨tssystem einordnen und bewerten zu ko¨nnen. Aus o¨konomischer Sicht bestehen verschiedene Zielkonflikte zwischen technischer Effizienz, niedrigen Preisen und umweltseitigen Belastungsgrenzen. Diese ko¨nnen aufgelo¨st werden, indem man eine Handlungsregel in vier absteigenden Priorita¨ten formuliert (s. Abschnitt 2.1 im Haupttext): 1. Schutz der Umwelt und damit der Gesellschaft vor inakzeptablen Auswirkungen; 2. Erhaltung des Gesamtwerts des ada¨quat bewerteten produzierten und natu¨rlichen Kapitals; 3. Maximierung der gesamten Wohlfahrt derzeitiger und zuku¨nftiger Generationen unter Einhaltung der ersten zwei Priorita¨ten; 4. gerechte Verteilung von Grundlagen in der Gegenwart. Durch die Heranziehung entsprechender Indikatoren kann die Handlungsregel fu¨r die Bewertung von Technologien, politischen Handelns und politischer Entwicklungen verwendet werden. In der Studie werden dazu die drei Bereiche Schutz der Umwelt, Ressourcennutzung/-verfu¨gbarkeit und Systemcharakteristiken im Hinblick auf die Gesellschaft unterschieden (s. Abschnitt 2.2 im Haupttext). Eine Analyse der politischen Prozesse der vergangenen etwa zwanzig Jahre in dieser Studie (s. Abschnitt 2.3 im Haupttext) zeigt Entwicklungen und Versa¨umnisse in der Energiepolitik auf. Einige Ergebnisse werden im Folgenden zusammenfassend dargestellt. Experten befu¨rchten, dass durch den beobachteten Klimawandel inakzeptable Auswirkungen auf Umwelt und Gesellschaft entstehen ko¨nnten. Deshalb wurden von der internationalen Gemeinschaft Grenzen fu¨r die Emission von “Treibhausgasen” politisch definiert und gesetzlich festgelegt. Diese dienten auch als Basis fu¨r die Festlegung von Quoten auf den Anteil erneuerbarer Energien im Energiesystem. Bereits heute ist in Europa ein starker Anstieg in der Verwendung erneuerbarer Energien fu¨r die Stromproduktion zu verzeichnen, der sich vermutlich weiter fortsetzen wird. Allerdings bestehen nach wie vor große Herausforderungen fu¨r die Politik, z.B. die Sta¨rkung des internationalen Elektrizita¨tsmarktes. Dafu¨r sollten vor allem weitere europa¨ische La¨nder in den Markt einbezogen werden, wozu ein Ausbau der technischen Infrastruktur, in erster Linie die Erweiterung der elektrischen Netze, erforderlich wird. Zusa¨tzlich sollte untersucht werden, inwiefern die gegenwa¨rtig wachsende Zusta¨ndigkeit Europas in der Regelung von Energiefragen weiter versta¨rkt werden sollte. Die Erfahrung zeigt außerdem, dass einige Großprojekte, die aus langfristig umweltseitiger und gesellschaftlich normativer Sicht akzeptiert oder sogar gewu¨nscht werden, in Teilen der Bevo¨lkerung auch auf Ablehnung stoßen. Das gilt unter anderem auch

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fu¨r Technologien, die fu¨r eine weitere Ausweitung der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien notwendig sind. Deswegen werden ada¨quate Prozeduren fu¨r die Beteiligung von Interessensvertretern an Entscheidungsprozessen erforderlich sein. Theoretische Untersuchungen der Speicherung von Elektrizita¨t als Mittel zur Speicherung o¨konomischer Werte (s. Abschnitt 2.4 im Haupttext) zeigen auf, dass drei Optionen in einem System mit einem hohen Anteil von Elektrizita¨t aus Wind- und Solarkraft verfolgt werden ko¨nnen, um Nachfrage und Angebot von Elektrizita¨t auszugleichen. Die erste sieht vor, die internationalen Netzverbindungen, ¨ bertragungsnetz, auszubauen und die Installation von Windkraftanlagen vor allem das U und solar betriebenen Anlagen so anzupassen, dass ein großes Potential fu¨r den Stromaustausch bei regional unterschiedlichem Elektrizita¨tsbedarf entsteht. Die zweite Option besteht darin, konventionelle Kraftwerke u¨ber die ohnehin beno¨tigte Kapazita¨t hinaus zusa¨tzlich allein fu¨r den Ausgleich vorzuhalten. Die dritte beinhaltet den Aufbau von Energiespeicheroptionen inklusive Nachfragesteuerung.

Bestehende Energiesystemanalysen Hinsichtlich der technischen und o¨konomischen Potentiale fu¨r den regionalen Ausgleich von Elektrizita¨tsnachfrage und -angebot wird deutlich, dass Kontinente die richtigen geographischen Skalen fu¨r Energiesystemanalysen sind. Jedoch liegt die Energiepolitik in Europa nach wie vor vorwiegend in den Ha¨nden der jeweiligen souvera¨nen Staaten. Daher werden in dieser Studie in erster Linie nationale Energieszenarien fu¨r die interdisziplina¨re Analyse herangezogen. Deutschland wird als ein Fallbeispiel fu¨r eine große europa¨ische Nation mit einer ¨ konomie und gleichzeitig ambitionierten Zielen bezu¨glich der Nutzung starken O erneuerbarer Energien analysiert. Eine Bestandsaufnahme (s. Abschnitt 3.1 im Haupttext) zeigt, dass in den vorhandenen Analysen des deutschen Elektrizita¨tssystems, die zur Politikberatung herangezogen werden, im Wesentlichen zwei Ansa¨tze verfolgt werden: Wa¨hrend die Entwicklungen in den na¨chsten zehn bis zwanzig Jahren, also bis 2020 bzw. 2030, hauptsa¨chlich durch zeitlich explorative Szenarien, die auf o¨konomischer Optimierung basieren, untersucht werden, werden langfristige Analysen mit Blick auf 2050 durchgefu¨hrt, indem zuna¨chst Zielsysteme definiert und dann mo¨gliche Pfade zu ihrer Realisierung analysiert werden. Ein Vergleich der einschla¨gigen Studien zeigt die Wichtigkeit weiterer Offenlegungen der Annahmen, der Verwendung konsistenter Parameter und der Durchfu¨hrung weiterer Sensitivita¨tsanalysen fu¨r die Interpretation der Ergebnisse mit dem Ziel der Politikberatung und fu¨r die Kombination der Aussagen aus den sich prinzipiell erga¨nzenden Studien. Fu¨r die Systemanalysen in dieser Studie wird folgender Ansatz verfolgt: zuerst wird eine Analyse der Zielsituation, in der ein langfristig zukunftsfa¨higes System zur Elektrizita¨tsversorgung erreicht ist, durchgefu¨hrt. Dazu werden potentielle zuku¨nftige Elektrizita¨tssysteme auf ihren Bedarf und die Potentiale von Technologien fu¨r den Ausgleich von Angebot und Nachfrage elektrischer Energie hin untersucht. In einem zweiten Schritt werden dann Maßnahmen identifiziert, die bereits heute

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erfolgen ko¨nnten, um ada¨quate Rahmenbedingungen fu¨r die erforderlichen Innovationsprozesse zu gewa¨hrleisten. Da in der vorliegenden Studie keine Gesamtkonzepte zuku¨nftiger Elektrizita¨tssysteme inklusive der Erzeugung neu zu entwickeln waren und sie sich vielmehr auf die Betrachtung erga¨nzender Technologien zum Ausgleich von elektrischer Energie bei einem hohen Anteil erneuerbarer Energien konzentrieren soll, wurden zwei bereits vorhandene Studien als Grundlage fu¨r die Analysen herangezogen (s. Abschnitt 3.2 im Haupttext): Das “Leitszenario 2009” als Pfadanalyse (genauer: “roadmapping”-Ansatz, Nitsch and Wenzel 2009) und ein exploratives politisches Szenario mit ambitionierten Umweltzielen (Szenario “III” von Lindenberger et al. 2008). Auf ihrer Basis wurden fu¨r die zwei zuku¨nftigen Jahre 2030 und “2040+”3 Anforderungen an den Ausgleich des Angebots und der Nachfrage elektrischer Energie untersucht. Als erstes Ergebnis aus der Analyse der Anlagenparks ergibt sich, dass im Falle des Leitszenarios im Zieljahr 2040+ zusa¨tzliche Maßnahmen wie der Bau von Speichersystemen, Lastmanagement oder Absicherung der Importe von Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien notwendig sind, um ein funktionierendes System zu realisieren.

Bedarf an Ausgleich elektrischer Energie und Leistung bei einem hohen Anteil erneuerbarer Energien im System Eine genaue Analyse der technischen Charakteristika der zwei ausgewa¨hlten Szenarien fu¨r Deutschland im Hinblick auf die residuale Last, d.h. der Last, die zeitweise nicht durch die Kraftwerke im System abgedeckt werden kann, auf Basis repra¨sentativer Tage (“Typtage”) (s. Abschnitt 4.1.1.1 im Haupttext) ergab fu¨r das Leitszenario ein maximales Leistungsdefizit zur Deckung von Lu¨cken im Stromangebot in 2030 von 7 GW und in 2040+ von 18 GW. Der maximale ¨ berschuss an elektrischer Leistung ergab sich in 2030 zu 13,7 und zeitweise U in 2040+ zu 24 GW. Dabei kann elektrische Energie in Ho¨he von 4 TWh (2030, 1,4 Prozent der ja¨hrlichen Einspeisung aus erneuerbaren Energien) bzw. 21 TWh (2040+, 4,7 Prozent der ja¨hrlichen Einspeisung aus erneuerbaren Energien) nicht im System genutzt werden. Diese Zahlen zeigen bereits, dass ein gewisses Potential fu¨r die Nutzung von Speichertechnologien besteht. Die Auslegung der Speicheroptionen ist hauptsa¨chlich bestimmt durch die Menge zusa¨tzlicher Leistung und Energie, die fu¨r den Ausgleich von Windstillen beno¨tigt wird (s. Abschnitte 4.1.1.2 und 4.1.1.3 im Haupttext). Die Analyse von Windstillen verschiedener Sta¨rken und La¨ngen zeigt, dass eine reine Abdeckung des zusa¨tzlichen Leistungsbedarfs durch Speicher in der Summe eine Speicherleistung von 18 GW in 2030 und 35 GW in 2040+ erfordern wu¨rde. Die Energiekapazita¨t der Speicheroptionen mu¨sste insgesamt 600 GWh in 2030 und 1.700 GWh in 2040+ betragen, um die jeweils maximal beno¨tigte Energiemenge abdecken zu ko¨nnen.

3

2040+ entspricht einer Situation in einem Jahr um 2040 oder spa¨ter.

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In den Betrachtungen fu¨r 2030 wird die zur Abdeckung von Produktionseinbru¨chen notwendige Dimension des Gesamtspeichers durch eine Windstille bestimmt, in der 5 Prozent der installierten Leistung u¨ber 87 Stunden nicht u¨berschritten werden (d.h.: bei der 87 Stunden lang eine Reduktion um mindestens 95 Prozent zu beobachten ist). In 2040+ ergibt sich die Dimensionierung der Speicher durch eine Windstille mit 218 Stunden La¨nge und mindestens 80 Prozent Reduktion der Leistung. Die Anforderungen ko¨nnen in dem Maße verringert werden in dem gesicherte Elektrizita¨t importiert werden kann. Unter der beispielhaften Annahme der Nutzung von Druckluftspeichern (“Compressed Air Energy Storages” (CAES)) und der Vernachla¨ssigung der Reduktion von Spitzen bei der Berechnung der Erzeugungskosten wurde der finanzielle Gewinn durch die Speichernutzung ermittelt (s. Abschnitt 4.1.2 im Haupttext). Die Berechnungen ergeben, dass im Fall von 15 GW zusa¨tzlich installierter Speicherleistung in 2040+ die Reduktionen in den Erzeugungskosten die Annuita¨ten des Investments u¨bersteigen. Das bedeutet, dass Druckluftspeicher mit den angenommenen Charakteristiken selbst ohne die Beru¨cksichtigung von Preisen, die in Spitzenlastzeiten erzielt werden ko¨nnen, o¨konomisch betrieben werden ko¨nnten. Zusa¨tzlich zu dieser Analyse von bestehenden Szenarien fu¨r Deutschland wurde im Projekt ein pan-europa¨ischer Modellansatz entwickelt und parallel dazu numerisch umgesetzt (s. Abschnitt 4.2 im Haupttext). Mit ihm wird das System bestehend aus Elektrizita¨tserzeugung aus Wind und Sonneneinstrahlung, Elektrizita¨tsnetzen und Energiespeichern auf der Basis stu¨ndlicher meteorologischer Daten fu¨r sieben Jahre unter technischer sowie kostenseitiger Annahmen fu¨r ein zuku¨nftiges Jahr um 2040 und spa¨ter (2040+) optimiert. Vorgaben durch historisch gewachsene Energiesysteme, wie die Zahl und Art bereits bestehende Kraftwerke, werden dabei vernachla¨ssigt, womit fu¨r die Optimierung zuna¨chst keine Restriktionen außer Wetterbedingungen, spezifischen Kosten und verfu¨gbaren Technologien bestehen. Der Modellmechanismus fußt auf einem genetischen Algorithmus, der iterativ “Individuen” optimiert, die sich durch verschiedene Charakteristiken des Energiesystems auszeichnen und in Form von Kostenwerten ausgedru¨ckt werden. Mit dem Modell wurden erste Berechnungen durchgefu¨hrt.

Technologien fu¨r den Ausgleich elektrischer Energie und Leistung Die Betrachtung der Eigenschaften verschiedener Technologien, die prizipiell fu¨r den Ausgleich elektrischer Energie und Leistung herangezogen werden ko¨nnen, zeigt, dass ihre Verwendbarkeit stark von der jeweiligen Aufgabe abha¨ngt. Technische Optionen wie Speichertechnologien aber auch Lastmanagement und konventionelle Kraftwerke ko¨nnen daher gut kategorisiert werden, indem ihre Charakteristiken im Hinblick auf die folgenden Bereiche angegeben werden (s. Abschnitte 5.1 bis 5.5 im Haupttext): A) Typ und Einsatzort des Speichersystems, B) Dauer und Ha¨ufigkeit des Speicherangebots, C) Form der gespeicherten und der bereitgestellten Energie.

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Zusammenfassung

Die Simulation der Realisierung fu¨r typische Fa¨lle erlaubt es, potentielle zuku¨nftige Kosten abzuscha¨tzen (s. Abschnitt 5.6 im Haupttext). Auf Basis der Analyse ergeben sich folgende Aussagen fu¨r die untersuchten drei verschiedenen Aufgaben. Die Annahmen fu¨r die technischen Anforderungen sind jeweils in Klammern dargestellt: – Langzeitspeicherung (Leistung4: 500 MW, verfu¨gbare Energie: 100 GWh, 1,5 Zyklen pro Monat): Fu¨r diese Aufgabe scheinen Kosten von 10 €-Cent/kWh erreichbar zu sein, wenn Elektrizita¨t in Form von Wasserstoff gespeichert wird. Dieser Wert ist deutlich geringer als die abgescha¨tzten Kosten fu¨r Druckluftspeicher (CAES) (ca. 23 €-Cent/kWh). Die Potentiale in Deutschland sind hoch. Im Gegensatz dazu sind die Kosten fu¨r Pumpspeicherkraftwerke mit 5 €-Cent/kWh zwar geringer, aber die Potentiale in Deutschland sind sehr beschra¨nkt. Bei Nutzung von Potentialen außerhalb Deutschlands, z.B. in Skandinavien, muss außerdem beru¨cksichtigt werden, dass dazu ein entsprechender Ausbau des ¨ bertragungsnetzes notwendig ist. Sollte sogar eigens fu¨r die Nutzung des U Speichers eine Netzverbindung gebaut werden mu¨ssen und sollte diese nur fu¨r diesen Speicher genutzt werden, ko¨nnen die Gesamtkosten dieselbe Ho¨he erreichen wie die fu¨r die Speicherung in Wasserstoff. – Lastausgleich im U¨bertragungsnetz (Leistung: 1 GW, verfu¨gbare Energie: 8 GWh, 1 Zyklus pro Tag): Fu¨r diese Aufgabe sind ebenfalls Pumpwasserkraftwerke interessant. Sie ko¨nnen voraussichtlich zu denselben niedrigen Kosten wie im Fall der Langzeitspeicherung betrieben werden. Zusa¨tzlich ka¨me der Einsatz von Druckluftspeichern, besonders der adiabatisch arbeitenden Varianten, mit erreichbaren Kosten unter 5 €-Cent/kWh in Frage. Des Weiteren ko¨nnen Batterien gut fu¨r den Lastausgleich genutzt werden, obwohl sie voraussichtlich ho¨here Kosten als die anderen zwei Optionen aufweisen werden. Dafu¨r haben sie den Vorteil, auch Prima¨rreserve bereitstellen zu ko¨nnen. – Bereitstellung von Spitzenlast (peak shaving) in den Verteilnetzen (Leistung: 100 kW, verfu¨gbare Energie: 250 kWh, 2 Zyklen pro Tag): In diesem Bereich konkurrieren verschiedene Batterietechnologien miteinander, insbesondere Zinc-Brom-, Vanadium-Redox-Flow-, Lithium-Ionen-, NickelCadmium-, Blei-Sa¨ure- und Natrium-Schwefel- oder Natrium-Nickel-ChloridTechnologien. Aus heutiger Sicht werden die erreichbaren spezifischen Kosten fu¨r Natrium-Systeme am niedrigsten eingescha¨tzt, gefolgt von der Blei-Sa¨ureTechnologie, welche heute die kostengu¨nstigste Variante darstellt. Zusa¨tzlich zu den kostengu¨nstigen Optionen werden voraussichtlich auch Potentiale durch Doppelnutzung von Speichern wie Batterien in Elektrofahr-

4

Fu¨r die Definition der Aufgaben sind Ladungs- und Entladungsleistung als gleich angenommen worden.

Hintergrund und Zielsetzung

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zeugen und stationa¨re Batterien in Geba¨uden, die z.B. zur Erga¨nzung kleiner Photovoltaikanlagen eingesetzt werden, in Zukunft relevant werden. Das gesamte Potential von Lastmanagement inklusive der Steuerung von Elektrofahrzeugen, Kraftwa¨rmekopplungsanlagen, Industrielasten, Wa¨rmepumpen und weißer Ware (Ku¨hlschra¨nke, Waschmaschinen, etc.) wird theoretisch auf etwa 16 bis 23 GW abgescha¨tzt. Unter Beru¨cksichtigung der begrenzten Akzeptanz beim Konsumenten reduziert es sich auf etwa 10 GW. Neben der Installation von Speicheroptionen wird es aus technischer, o¨konomischer und rechtlicher Sicht zusa¨tzlich notwendig sein, Wind- und Solaranlagen bei extremen Angebotsspitzen abzuschalten. Abscha¨tzungen der Zukunftsfa¨higkeit von Speichersystemen auf Basis von Daten zu Lebenszyklusanalysen zeigen, dass die erwarteten starken Reduktionen in der Menge der CO2-Emissionen im Energiesystem voraussichtlich dazu fu¨hren werden, dass die bei Produktionsprozessen von Materialien wie Nickel und Blei entstehenden Emissionen relevanter werden (s. Abschnitt 5.7.2 im Haupttext). Aufgrund hoher SO2-Emissionen in einigen wichtigen Prozessen ko¨nnten u.a. ¨ kosysteme an Bedeutung gewinnen. entsprechende Auswirkungen auf O Durch die zuku¨nftig geringere Ausbeutung fossiler Energieressourcen ru¨ckt die Nutzung und Verfu¨gbarkeit von mineralischen Ressourcen sta¨rker in den Fokus. Dies gilt insbesondere fu¨r die Produktion und den Betrieb neuer Energietechnologien, unter anderem solcher, die zum Ausgleich von elektrischer Energie und Leistung verwendet werden ko¨nnen. Die Analyse der Verfu¨gbarkeit mineralischer Ressourcen unter Beru¨cksichtigung der statischen Reichweite, regionaler Konzentrationen von Reserven, Preise und Preisa¨nderungen (s. Abschnitt 5.7.3 im Haupttext) zeigt, dass von den analysierten Rohstoffen lediglich Titan unproblematisch ist, wa¨hrend einzelne wenige Probleme mit Lithium, Vanadium, Arsen, Nickel und Zirkonoxid absehbar sind. Nimmt man den heutigen Ressourcenbedarf fu¨r die Herstellung und den Betrieb von Batterien auch fu¨r zuku¨nftige Technologien an, wird die Verwendung der untersuchten Batterietechnologien Lithium-Typ-, Blei-Sa¨ure- und Vanadium-Akkumulatoren in großen Mengen langfristig hohe Recyclingraten und mo¨glicherweise die Substitution derzeit beno¨tigter Mineralien erfordern. Die Analyse der Systemcharakteristik der betrachteten Ausgleichstechnologien anhand typischer, hier verwendeter Indikatoren fu¨r diesen Bereich kommt vor allem fu¨r kleine modulare Systeme zu einem positiven Ergebnis (s. Abschnitt 5.7.4 im Haupttext). Bei großen zentralen Systemen kann es zu ho¨herer Importabha¨ngigkeit kommen; es muss ein gro¨ßerer Aufwand betrieben werden, um ausreichend Redundanz im System vorzuhalten, und die begrenzte Akzeptanz der lokalen Bevo¨lkerung ist zu beru¨cksichtigen, wodurch voraussichtlich die Nutzung partizipativer Elemente in den Entscheidungsverfahren wichtig sein wird. Zusa¨tzlich mu¨ssen ada¨quate Maßnahmen ergriffen werden, um das Risiko von Unfa¨llen unter plo¨tzlicher Abgabe gespeicherter Energie gering zu halten. Um zu vermeiden, dass die Entwicklung von Ausgleichsoptionen fu¨r Angebot

xlii

Zusammenfassung

und Nachfrage von elektrischer Energie behindert wird, mu¨ssen die implementierten Fo¨rdersysteme technologieneutral gestaltet werden.

Implikationen fu¨r Elektrizita¨tsnetze Die Ausweitung der Nutzung erneuerbarer Ressourcen fu¨r die Elektrizita¨tsproduktion und die Anwendung der oben diskutierten Ausgleichsoptionen erfordern zusa¨tzlich ¨ bertragungsnetz als einen Ausbau der Elektrizita¨tsnetze. Das betrifft sowohl das U auch die Verteilnetze, sowohl national als auch international. Eine Untersuchung technischer Restriktionen in Verteilnetzen (s. Abschnitt 6.1.1 und 6.2.1 im Haupttext) zeigt auf, dass die Kapazita¨ten bei Nutzung von Laststeuerung (“demand side management”) wegen der ansteigenden Gleichzeitigkeit der Lasten voraussichtlich schnell erscho¨pft sein werden. Die Verletzung operativer Grenzen kann dadurch verhindert werden, dass Last und Erzeugung im Verteilnetz koordiniert werden. Um die Umsetzung der Laststeuerung im Hinblick auf ihren Nutzungskomfort zu optimieren, sollte sie so weit wie mo¨glich automatisiert werden. Fu¨r die notwendige Versta¨rkung der Verteilnetze werden Kosten von 1.000 € pro Haushalt abgescha¨tzt, die bei Ausnutzung des Potentials Laststeuerung voraussichtlich ab 2020 zu investieren sind. Diese sind im Vergleich zu den ja¨hrlich eingesparten Erzeugungskosten von ungefa¨hr 18 € pro Haushalt hoch. ¨ bertragungsnetz mit Hilfe von Profilen Basierend auf Berechnungen fu¨r das U typischer Tage (“Typtage”) (s. Abschnitt 6.1.2 und 6.2.2 im Haupttext) ist langfristig dessen Erweiterung um etwa 3.000 km oder mehr notwendig, um der ra¨umlichen Verschiebung der Erzeugung aufgrund des substantiellen Anstiegs operativer Off-Shore-Windanlagen gerecht zu werden. Die Beschra¨nkung der Anlayse auf Typtage bedeutet, dass durch diese errechnete Erweiterung allerdings maximal nur etwa 70 Prozent der insgesamt installierten Windkraftleistung u¨bertragen werden ko¨nnen. In seltenen Extremsituationen, in denen die Leistung 70 Prozent der Maximalleistung u¨bersteigt, mu¨ssten daher Windkraftanlagen ¨ bertragungsnetz zu vermeiden. Fu¨r die abgeschaltet werden, um Scha¨den am U Abscha¨tzung der Werte wird außerdem angenommen, dass kein starker Austausch von elektrischer Energie mit Nachbarla¨ndern stattfindet. Andere Studien, die auch die netzseitige Abdeckung extremer Einspeisesituationen und einen starken Austausch mit Nachbarla¨ndern fu¨r die Abscha¨tzung des Ausbaubedarfs vorsehen, kommen zu einer Erweiterung von etwa 3.500 Kilometern, die bereits in 2020 notwendig sein werden. Unter Beru¨cksichtigung der derzeitigen und voraussichtlich zuku¨nftigen Entwicklung der Netztechnologien erscheint aus heutiger Sicht die Verwendung einer Kombination von konventionellen Drehstromfreileitungen mit Hochspan¨ ) am plausibelsten. Aus Rechnungen auf nungsgleichstromu¨bertragung (HGU Basis von Typtagen ergeben sich damit langfristig (2040+) Investitionskosten von sechs bis acht Milliarden € bzw. entsprechend etwa 0,2 bis 0,35 €-Cent pro kWh eingespeister Windenergie.

Hintergrund und Zielsetzung

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Wirtschaftspolitische Optionen fu¨r die Nutzung von Speichersystemen Die theoretische Analyse mo¨glicher Probleme einer Marktwirtschaft angesichts wetterabha¨ngiger Elektrizita¨tserzeugung und kulturell beeinflusster Nachfragefluktuationen (s. Abschnitt 7.1 im Haupttext) zeigt, dass mit dem Einsatz von Ausgleichstechnologien im Elektrizita¨tssystem verschiedene Nutzen verbunden sind. Durch die Verbesserung der Infrastruktur u¨ber nationale Grenzen hinweg ko¨nnten die Fluktuationen durch Lieferungen aus Regionen mit Angebotsu¨berschuss in Regionen mit Angebotsdefizit geda¨mpft werden. Sowohl Stromanbieter als auch -ha¨ndler ko¨nnten an dem Betrieb von Speichersystemen interessiert sein. Wa¨hrend Anbieter die Systeme voraussichtlich nahe der Erzeugung installieren werden, werden Ha¨ndler sie eher in Kundenna¨he platzieren. Netzbetreiber ko¨nnten Speicheranlagen idealerweise in Bereichen hoher Netzinstabilita¨t aufstellen. Allerdings ist es Netzbetreibern aufgrund der “Unbundling”-Richtlinie der Europa¨ischen Union derzeit nicht erlaubt Speicheranlagen in nennenswertem Umfang zu betreiben. Die Anwendung von Energiespeichern fu¨hrt zu einigen Systemverbesserungen, mit denen politische Eingriffe in den Markt gerechtfertigt werden ko¨nnen (s. Abschnitt 7.2 im Haupttext). Die Stabilita¨t der Energiebereitstellung wird erho¨ht, Umweltexternalita¨ten – vor allem die durch Klimawandel hervorgerufenen – werden reduziert, durch einen erho¨hten Anteil dezentraler Anlagen kann eine Monopolmacht in Zeiten knappen Angebots reduziert werden und die Anwendung von Technologien mit nicht versicherbaren Risiken (Kernkraftwerke) ko¨nnen reduziert oder im Fall von Deutschland ersetzt werden. Aufgrund historisch gewachsener Fo¨rderstrukturen werden andere Technologien im Energiebereich bereits staatlich gefo¨rdert. Daher ist derzeit aus praktischen Gru¨nden zusa¨tzlich eine Fo¨rderung von Ausgleichstechnologien notwendig, die u¨ber die der Forschung, Entwicklung und Demonstration hinausgeht.

Rechtliche Analyse der Rahmenbedingungen Einige der aktuellen regulatorischen Rahmenbedinungen sollten im Zusammenhang mit der Realisierung von Strategien zum Ausgleich von Nachfrage und Angebot elektrischer Energie bereits jetzt untersucht werden. Die rechtswissenschaftlichen Analysen in der vorliegenden Studie werden unterteilt in Aspekte zentraler Speichersysteme (Abschnitt 8.2 im Haupttext), dezentraler Speichersysteme inklusive Lastmanagement sowie “intelligenter” Netze (Abschnitt 8.3 im Haupttext) und der ¨ bertragungsnetzes (Abschnitt 8.4 im Haupttext). Die Ergebnisse Erweiterung des U sind im Folgenden dargestellt. Im Bereich zentraler Speichersysteme sollte sowohl im derzeitigen Recht als auch im noch zu gestaltenden Recht gekla¨rt werden, ob die Anwendung von Speichertechnologien der Erzeugerseite oder der Netzseite zugeordnet werden soll. Ihre rechtliche Klassifikation hat insbesondere Auswirkungen auf die Bewertung zivilrechtlicher Fragen wie z.B. die der diskriminierungsfreien Nutzung, des

xliv

Zusammenfassung

diskriminierungsfreien Zugangs und der Entflechtung (“Unbundling”). Es ko¨nnen verschiedene negative Anreize und Barrieren durch die derzeitige Gesetzgebung identifiziert werden, die Auswirkungen auf Investitionen in Speichertechnologien haben. Die in erster Linie betroffenen Akteure sind Erzeuger von Elektrizita¨t ¨ bertragungsnetzbetreiber, die aufgrund des aus erneuerbaren Energien und U Erneuerbare Energien Gesetzes (EEG) Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien kaufen und vermarkten mu¨ssen. Zusa¨tzlich ko¨nnte ein spezielles Planungsregelwerk fu¨r die Nutzung von Untergrundressourcen helfen, potentielle Konflikte zwischen den einzelnen Nutzern und zwischen Nutzern und den jeweiligen Landeigentu¨mern zu entscha¨rfen. Um die Entwicklung von Speichertechnologien nicht durch die Gesetzgebung zu behindern, sollten entsprechende negative Anreize beseitigt werden. Im Bereich dezentraler Speichersysteme, insbesondere bei der Elektromobilita¨t, intelligenten Netzen und allgemeiner beim Lastmanagement, mu¨ssen vertragliche Fragen in Verbindung mit ganz neuen Akteuren und Netzwerken hinsichtlich der Sorgfaltspflichten, Kooperation und Information sowie Nutzungsbedingungen beantwortet werden. Außerdem stellt sich durch die Mo¨glichkeiten, weitreichende und sehr detaillierte individuelle Profile der Mobilita¨t und Energienutzung zu generieren, die Frage, inwieweit die derzeitige Gesetzgebung im Bereich des Datenschutzes dazu geeignet ist, mit der Menge und Qualita¨t der Daten sowie mit den neuen Arten der Datenerfassung, -aufarbeitung und -nutzung legitim umzugehen. Neue Ansa¨tze fu¨r Lo¨sungen innerhalb und außerhalb des gesetzlichen Rahmens werden beru¨cksichtigt werden mu¨ssen. ¨ bertragungsnetzen sind sehr divers Derzeitige Verfahren fu¨r den Ausbau von U und in bestimmten Bereichen dysfunktional. Besonders problematisch erscheinen punktuelle Investitionspflichten von Netzbetreibern, die zivilrechtlich behandelt werden und bei denen gesamtwirtschaftliche Aspekte nicht ada¨quat beru¨cksichtigt werden (z.B. } 9 EEG). Hier wird ein umfassenderer und systematischerer Ansatz beno¨tigt. Auf nationaler Ebene ko¨nnte die Situation durch ein fundamentales ¨ bertragungsleitungen Reformmodell fu¨r strategische Investitionsprojekte in U verbessert werden. Einige Verbesserungen und Standardisierungen, z.B. in Bezug auf Richtlinien guter Praxis bei o¨ffentlichen Anho¨rungen, ko¨nnten den Umgang bei Konflikten mit der betroffenen lokalen Bevo¨lkerung verbessern. Die Mo¨glichkeiten fu¨r Reformen auf europa¨ischer Ebene sind begrenzt. Jedoch wa¨re eine bessere Koordination auf dieser Ebene sinnvoll.

Herausforderungen und Empfehlungen Die Anforderungen an den Ausgleich elektrischer Energie im System werden mit steigendem Anteil von Elektrizita¨t aus erneuerbaren Energien zunehmen. Allerdings zeigt die obige Zusammenfassung der Analysen in dieser Studie bereits, dass einige Herausforderungen mit der Nutzung alternativer Optionen, die niedrige CO2-Emissionen aufweisen, verbunden sind. Zu diesen geho¨ren Energiespeicher ¨ berinstallation der Erzeugungskapazita¨t inklusive Lastmanagement sowie die U

Hintergrund und Zielsetzung

xlv

zusammen mit einem entsprechenden Netzausbau. Zur Gewa¨hrleistung einer stabilen Elektrizita¨tsversorgung mu¨ssen dabei die verschiedenen Standorte in Europa und die relevanten Zeitskalen von Sekunden zu Tagen und Wochen beru¨cksichtigt werden. Im Folgenden werden die 13 identifizierten Herausforderungen mit entsprechenden Empfehlungen, die aus der Studie abgeleitet wurden (s. Abschnitt 9.2 im Haupttext), zusammengefasst aufgelistet. Herausforderung 1: Bereitstellung ausreichender Speicherkapazita¨t in Deutschland – Ein Mix verschiedener Speicheroptionen, der auf die Netzrestriktionen abgestimmt ist, sollte installiert werden um die Abschaltung von Windkraftanlagen in der Spitzenerzeugung zu verhindern und die Anwendung von kohlenstoffarmen Alternativen zum Schließen von Angebotslu¨cken zu ermo¨glichen. – Internationale Netzwerke sollten etabliert werden, um große Speicherpotentiale in einigen europa¨ischen La¨ndern weiterzuentwickeln und nutzbar zu machen. – Die U¨berinstallation der Kapazita¨t von Wind- und Solar-Kraftwerken ¨ bertragungskapazita¨t zusammen mit der Gewa¨hrleistung ausreichender U sollte als Option beru¨cksichtigt werden. – Alternative technische Optionen, wie etwa die Nutzung der Gasnetze fu¨r die Speicherung von Energie, sollten weiter analysiert werden. – Negative Anreize in der rechtlichen Regulierung sollten beseitigt und in Zukunft vermieden werden. – Forschung, Entwicklung und Demonstration der Technologien sollten intensiviert werden, um die Kosten der Speichertechnologien zu reduzieren.

Herausforderung 2: Realisierung technischer Potentiale dezentraler Optionen – Automatisierte technische Lo¨sungen fu¨r die Steuerung von Lasten sollten entwickelt werden, um Minderungen im Nutzungskomfort zu vermeiden. – Flexible Tarife sollten eingefu¨hrt werden, um die Wahrnehmung von Knappheiten und tempora¨ren Variationen im Wert elektrischer Energie zu steigern. – Datenanforderungen fu¨r Steuerungsvorga¨nge sollten minimiert und ada¨quate Datenschutzbestimmungen eingerichtet werden. – Forschung, Entwicklung und Demonstration fu¨r die Standardisierung sollten vor allem im Bereich automatisierten Lastmanagements weiter vorangetrieben werden.

xlvi

Zusammenfassung

Herausforderung 3: Management der Umwelt- und Ressourcennutzung – Durch eine geeignete Gestaltung der Technologien sollten potentielle Hemmnisse durch die limitierte Verfu¨gbarkeit beno¨tigter Ressourcen oder durch das Auftreten von Umwelteffekten bei Massenbedarf bereits fru¨hzeitig beru¨cksichtigt werden. – Kontinuierliche Beobachtungen der Ressourcennutzung und der Ma¨rkte wa¨hrend der Entwicklung sollten erfolgen. – Forschung, Entwicklung und Demonstration in den Bereichen Recycling von Sekunda¨rrohstoffen und Substitute sollte erfolgen und wo notwendig sollten entsprechende Prozesse eingerichtet werden. Herausforderung 4: Bereitstellung ausreichender Netzwerkkapazita¨ten fu¨r den Transport von Elektrizita¨t – Eine Beschleunigung von Planungsprozeduren sollte durch die Einfu¨hrung strukturierter Mechanismen erreicht werden. – Eine Sta¨rkung der nationalen und europa¨ischen Interessen im Verha¨ltnis zu regionalen Interessen sollte u¨ber die Reformierung des Regulierungssystems erreicht werden. – Forschung und Entwicklung sollte durch den Regulator unterstu¨tzt werden, indem die entstehenden Kosten im Rahmen der Kostenerstattung akzeptiert werden. Herausforderung 5: Ada¨quate Beru¨cksichtigung von Ausgleichsstrategien in Regelwerken – Zuordnungen und Definitionen im Zusammenhang mit Ausgleichstechnologien sollten in den entsprechenden Regelwerken gekla¨rt werden. – Entscheidungen u¨ber die Zuordnung von Speicheranlagen zur Netz- oder zur Erzeugungsebene sollten vom Gesetzgeber getroffen werden. Herausforderung 6: Gestaltung eines europa¨ischen Energiemarkts ¨ bertra– Austausch von Elektrizita¨t sollte ermo¨glicht werden, indem das U gungsnetz weiter ausgebaut wird. – Ein Rahmen fu¨r eine kohlenstoffarme Energieversorgung sollte fu¨r Europa implementiert werden, der umfassend, langzeitorientiert und weitreichend bzw. ehrgeizig ist und u¨ber 2020 hinaus geht. – Europas Elektrizita¨tsma¨rkte sollten weiter integriert werden.

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Herausforderung 7: Beseitigung u¨berholter Subventionen und Steuern – Optimale o¨konomische Rahmenbedingungen sollten hergestellt werden, indem u¨berholte Subventionen und Steuern schrittweise zuru¨ckgenommen und konsistente Maßnahmen wie Demonstrationsprojekte und zeitlich beschra¨nkte Startsubventionen eingefu¨hrt werden. – Historisch gewachsenen Misssta¨nden in den Rahmenbedingungen sollte durch zeitlich begrenzte Subventions- und Steuerausgestaltungen begegnet werden. Herausforderung 8: Umwandlung von Markt-Externalita¨ten in Kosten und Erlo¨se – Sozioo¨konomischer Nutzen sollten internalisiert werden, indem entsprechende Ma¨rkte und Kompensationsmechanismen eingerichtet werden. – Kosten von Systemdienstleistungen sollten internalisiert werden, indem Mechanismen eingefu¨hrt werden, u¨ber die Stromerzeuger fu¨r die geleisteten Dienstleistungen, die sie fu¨r einen reibungslosen Betrieb der Kraftwerke beno¨tigen, inklusive der Netze, zahlen mu¨ssen. – Vorteile durch Koordination der Produktion von Elektrizita¨t aus erneuerbaren Energien mit dem Netzmanagement und der Nutzung von Speichern sollten im Hinblick auf die Realisierung zusa¨tzlichen Nutzens untersucht werden. – Mo¨gliche Gescha¨ftsmodelle sollen im Detail analysiert werden. – Detaillierte Systemanalysen von Nutzen durch die Anwendung von Ausgleichsstrategien sollten als Basis fu¨r Politikentscheidungen durchgefu¨hrt werden.

Herausforderung 9: Handhabung neuer komplexer Marktstrukturen – Vertragliche Herausforderungen auf neuen Ma¨rkten sollten im Detail analysiert werden. – Generelle rechtliche Maßnahmen fu¨r neue Ma¨rkte sollten entwickelt werden. Herausforderung 10: Sta¨rkung wissenschaftlicher Beratung im Bereich der Ausgleichsstrategien – Die Energiesystemanalyse sollte durch intensive Forschung mit umfassenden Modellen und unter der koordinierten Kooperation relevanter Institutionen verbessert werden.

xlviii

Zusammenfassung

– Großprojekte zur Energiesystemmodellierung sollten durchgefu¨hrt und Vorteile ihrer Institutionalisierung, die regelma¨ßige Aktualisierungen und Beobachtung der Systementwicklungen erlauben wu¨rde, untersucht werden. – Die europa¨ische Perspektive, unter der Beru¨cksichtigung nationaler Politiken, sollte fu¨r eine erweiterte Energiesystemanalyse verpflichtend sein. – Die beno¨tigte installierte Leistung und Energiekapazita¨t sollten in zuku¨nftigen Studien als Hauptaspekte im Detail analysiert werden. Herausforderung 11: Ada¨quate Unterstu¨tzung der Verwendung neuer Technologien – Startsubventionen sollten eingefu¨hrt werden, die auf Marktmechanismen basieren, und automatisch auf das Niveau der Kompensation von Externalita¨ten abgesenkt werden, um die Verwendung vielversprechender Technologien ada¨quat zu fo¨rdern. – Investitionen in Forschung, Entwicklung und Demonstration fu¨r Speichersysteme sollten erho¨ht werden. Herausforderung 12: Ada¨quate Unterstu¨tzung von Langzeitinvestitionen – Politische Entscheidungen u¨ber Rahmenbedingungen auf nationaler und internationaler Ebene sollten zuverla¨ssig und langfristig sowie in ¨ bereinstimmung mit der europa¨ischen Wettbewerbspolitik festgelegt U werden. – Eine verla¨ssliche Basis fu¨r Entscheidungen u¨ber Rahmenbedingungen sollte durch erweiterte Energiesystemanalysen geschaffen werden.

Herausforderung 13: Umgang mit Konflikten bei Großprojekten – Ada¨quate Mechanismen fu¨r die Beteiligung betroffener Parteien und der ¨ ffentlichkeit im Entscheidungsprozess sollten eingerichtet breiteren O werden. – Die Einrichtung eines speziellen Planungsregelwerks fu¨r Untergrundressourcen sollte auf ihr Potential zur Vermeidung mo¨glicher Konflikte der relevanten Interessengruppen hin analysiert werden. – Maßnahmen zur Konfliktlo¨sung wie die Gewa¨hrung ada¨quater Kompensationsmaßnahmen sollten weiter analysiert und, wo sinnvoll, angewandt werden.

1

Introduction

1.1

Background

The industrial revolution led to a technological and energy transformation in Europe. Economies that through the end of the nineteenth century had been primarily driven by coal and small-scale renewables diversified their energy mix and became increasingly dependent on oil, natural gas, medium- and large-scale hydropower and nuclear energy. Since the beginning of the 1970s, it has become increasingly clear that resource and environmental constraints significantly influence economic activities and can limit economic growth if not managed satisfactorily. Importantly, the publication of the Club of Rome report, Limits to Growth (Meadows et al. 1972) injected economic theory and modelling into the discussion of natural resource use. This book does the same in relation to a low-carbon European electricity future. Europe needs to find a new approach to the energy structures that are the backbone of its economic growth and development. The energy sources that made the technological transformation of the past century possible are for the most part non-renewable. Coal is the only fossil fuel that still remains in some abundance in Europe, however, it is heavily polluting. New sources of natural gas are being explored and new retrieval methods are being developed, but demand could easily outstrip supply in the future. Irrespective of whether peak oil is in fact already here, is likely to occur in the near future, or will not happen until sometime in the next century, the long-term consequences remain the same: fossil fuel supplies are limited and non-renewable. There is a further argument for an energy revolution. The dependency of the European Union on imports of energy resources has increased substantially over the past years. With growing global demand for energy and declining domestic reserves in the EU, competition for easily accessible remaining supplies is becoming more intense. Energy prices in Europe are likely to continue to rise. Political instability in oil-rich regions, as can be seen in the Arab world, can accelerate these processes.

B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_1, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

1

2

1

Introduction

Even more pressing than these resource constraints are the environmental constraints tied to the heavily fossil-fuel based economies of Europe and other regions of the globe. Climate change attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is regarded as the most serious potential environmental impact of fossil fuel use. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many other bodies warn that the emissions from fossil fuel burning are contributing to a warming of global average temperatures and putting the planet at risk of severe weather extremes. The change in the climate of the planet could affect seasonal temperatures and rainfall patterns, turning some parts of Europe into desert-like regions. The melting of polar ice and glaciers could contribute to sea level rise. More severe storms and hurricanes and periods of excessive heat and drought are also predicted (IPCC 2007) and can be observed already in many parts of the world. Due to insufficient knowledge about natural processes and uncertainties related to future developments, none of these effects can be predicted with high accuracy. Theoretically, it is not possible to prove strictly that climate change is caused by human beings. Nevertheless, there are strong indications that anthropogenic emissions are influencing the climate. Given that the potential impacts of climate change could be very severe, at the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, the international community determined it necessary to begin to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the potential socio-economic impacts of climate change to acceptable levels. A first step in this process was the formulation of the Kyoto Protocol. Based on the precautionary principle, the Kyoto Protocol introduced concrete reduction aims for greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement runs through 2012. Negotiations on a possible follow-up agreement continue, but obstacles remain large. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been identified as the major anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is the main end product of processes in which fuels with carbon content are burned. It is for this reason that processes of energy conversion from fossil fuels are a main focus of measures to reduce the extent of anthropogenically induced climate change. One way to reduce CO2 emissions is to install energy conversion plants that make use of continuous natural energy fluxes to the Earth instead of fossil-stored energy. This can be done by converting solar radiation directly, or by using it indirectly via kinetic wind and wave energy or via produced biomass to produce electricity and heat. An extensive use of such renewable energies is seen as a promising, and largely undisputed path to a viable energy system. For this reason, renewable energy is being promoted by many governments as a major measure for curtailing climate change. Renewable energy can contribute substantially to solving climate change problems, addressing resource depletion, and reducing dependency on international energy resources. More than in any other region in the world, Europe is taking the lead on renewable energy and especially wind and direct solar radiation. Economic and technological potentials and scenario analyses point to the importance of these renewable resources. Throughout Europe, as well as at the European Union level, politically set targets are promoting the rapid growth of the use of kinetic energy for electricity production, particularly from wind and direct solar radiation.

1.2

Renewable Energies in the European Energy Mix

3

Yet, as the availability of these energy sources is very dependent on weather conditions, their use presents challenges. Weather dependent fluctuations in supply can seriously impact the provision of electrical power. To ensure a stable electricity supply, the distribution of electricity via the grid requires that total input and output is equal at all times, even in the scale of seconds. In order to assure this, the current energy system uses a sophisticated system for balancing energy and power. However, the existing grid structure is coming under growing strain, as it was not designed for large-scale renewable energy use. Two different kinds of problems can occur. On the one hand, there may be insufficient electricity provision from renewable energies as a result of long periods of cloudiness or darkness or insufficient wind. When this happens, backup systems (currently, these would typically be high-carbon options such as coal or natural gas powered utilities) that can fill the gap in supply are required. In other cases, the supply from renewable energies can exceed demand. In these cases, under current regulations and market conditions, negative prices can occur on the market. This is clearly a negative and inefficient outcome and suggests a problem with the existing electricity infrastructure in Europe. Expanding energy storage capacities and network structures will prospectively be a better alternative with a larger amount of power from renewables in the system than the current strategy for dealing with such situations, which is essentially to simply turn off wind turbines or disconnect wind and photovoltaic systems from the grid. Most studies addressing future energy systems need to concentrate on energy conversion issues without giving much attention to the multiple options that exist for auxiliary systems and balancing strategies. Little attention has been given to new technology development needs or to the planning and approval processes tied to the modernisation and extension of electricity networks. This study aims to take on this important challenge by exploring and analysing alternative strategies and technologies that can balance gaps between supply and demand that can be created by unsuitable weather conditions. The authors recognise that this is a challenge that will require several years but is critical to the development of a low-carbon electricity supply for Europe.

1.2

Renewable Energies in the European Energy Mix

The share of renewable energies (wind, solar, biomass, hydro) in the EU’s energy mix has basically doubled in the first decade of the 2000s, from about 5% in 2000 to over 10% in 2008. The EU’s recent efforts to strengthen renewable energy policies are tied both to growing concerns about the EU’s energy import dependency and to climate change. As renewable energies are relatively non-controversial, can be domestically developed, and are also climate-friendly, there has been a big push to promote renewables within the EU in recent years. EU renewable energy policies are a way of moving member economies towards greater energy autonomy, resource efficiency and technological progress. Various plans are being laid for

4

1

Introduction

how the EU can shift from its still heavily fossil-fuel based electricity structure towards a lower-carbon supply. There was a steady growth in energy consumption in Europe until about 2003. Since this time, consumption has largely stabilised. Europe remains heavily dependent upon fossil fuels for its primary energy, but a clear shift in the energy mix over time is becoming visible. According to Eurostat, in 1998, crude oil, petroleum products, and solid fuels combined accounted for 59% and renewables a mere 2% of gross inland consumption. A little more than a decade later, in 2008, crude oil, petroleum products, and solid fuels still accounted for 54% of the total energy consumption mix, while renewables increased their share to 10% of gross final energy consumption (Eurostat 2011a). The European Union is a net energy importer. Its dependence on fossil fuel energy imports has increased from 46% in 1998 to 54% in 2009 (see Fig. 1.1). With growing demand for energy resources and minerals coming from emerging economies (e.g., China, India, South Africa, Brazil), expectations are that energy prices will rise, hurting European economies. Thus, the incentive to diversify energy supplies and increase domestic production is becoming stronger. EU-27 domestic electrical power production in 2008 can be seen in Fig. 1.2. Renewables add up to 18.3% in total, which is more than the individual contributions of hard coal, lignite and crude oil (Eurostat 2011c). Thus, in terms of what the EU can domestically produce, renewable energy holds a substantial share. It is also one of the energy sources that can be most easily expanded in Europe. Furthermore, the development of new production capacity has been dominated by the renewable energy sector, and particularly biomass and waste to energy. There was a 38.4% production increase in renewable energy production capacity between 2002 and 2007. During the same time frame production of other energy sources fell: crude oil ( 28.7%), natural gas ( 18.1%), and solid fuels ( 11.1%). The developments in the energy sector show that the electricity mix is already changing with continuously increasing shares of renewable energies (see Fig. 1.3). Additionally, the EU has defined a target for 2020 that 20% of energy consumption should be provided by renewable energies. This implies that besides heat production, the share of electricity produced with renewable energies will increase significantly in Europe in the coming decade. Some countries within the EU have established even more ambitious targets. For example, the German “Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply” states as one target to raise the share of renewables in the gross energy consumption to 60% and of gross electricity consumption to 80% by 2050. Some studies even discuss the possibility of establishing a 100% renewable electricity supply for Germany (e.g., Umweltbundesamt 2010; SRU 2011) or Europe (e.g., PwC et al. 2010) by 2050. The examples of countries such as Germany or Denmark which have relatively high shares of power produced from fluctuating renewable energies hint at the upcoming challenges the European power sector is likely to face. Electricity production and distribution in these countries show that with using fluctuating sources of energy for electricity production such as wind and solar radiation,

1.2

Renewable Energies in the European Energy Mix

5

Fig. 1.1 European energy dependence (percentage total) (Source: Eurostat 2011e)

Total production: 812 million toe

renewables 18.3%

coal and lignite 20.4%

crude oil 12.8% nuclear 28.4% natural gas 18.8%

Fig. 1.2 EU 27 total primary energy production by source (Source: Eurostat 2011c)

large gaps can occur in the provision of electricity. This can lead to blackouts if the gaps are not filled by backup technologies. These can be either other forms of installed power or storage capacities. As an example, Fig. 1.4 shows the power that is provided during a period of several days of wind calm in the Vattenfall electricity grid in Germany. This represents the eastern control area of the country. A total shortfall of about 540 GW h electrical energy can be observed. From a further look at the details of the time curve, it is obvious that balancing activity is also required

6

1

Introduction

3000

[1000 toe]

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

Power in MW

Fig. 1.3 Renewable energy (primary production) (Source: Eurostat 2011f)

Load curve

Wind power

Wind power prognosis Pumped hydro storage systems in Germany 40,000 MWh 7,000 MW IfR, TU Braunschweig

Weeks in 2008 (calendar dates)

Fig. 1.4 Load and wind power, predicted and produced, in the German high-voltage grid (eastern control area) (01/02/2008–06/03/2008) (Based on the source: IfR/TU Braunschweig, taken from (B€ unger et al. 2009:13))

on a shorter time scale of minutes to some hours in order to cover the discrepancy between the energy-meteorological prognosis and actual power production. This data from the German eastern control area illustrates convincingly some of the major challenges for balancing energy and power when there is a high penetration of renewables in the electricity system. Compared to the currently installed aggregated storage capacity of pumped hydropower plants of 90 GW h worldwide and 40 GW h in Germany, which represent by far the highest potential for storing electricity, it becomes clear that currently only conventional power plants can cover such gaps. It is also important to

1.3

Aim and Structure of the Study

7

realise that backup power plants produce power at relatively high costs if they are needed only a small number of hours per year. This will particularly be relevant when new plants have to be built. Furthermore, restrictions in CO2 emissions, as well as future prices for natural resources and investments, may increase the costs even more or even lead to a phase-out of such power plants for backup purposes. A further consequence of future prices and policies may be an extension of transborder infrastructure for electricity transport. Currently, international European trade in electricity is limited. Expanding interconnections in Europe could improve conditions and increase aggregate welfare.

1.3

Aim and Structure of the Study

The current study is based on an interdisciplinary analysis of strategies for balancing out demand and supply of electricity in situations where there is a high share of wind and solar power in the energy system. To enhance the practicality of the study, not only technical and economic aspects, but also political and legal framework conditions are investigated. The analyses in the different sections culminate in recommendations for action, which the authors argue should be taken to open up opportunities for future options in the area of balancing strategies. In the study the status quo of legal regulations of April 2011 is assumed. In the first part of the study (Chap. 2), perspectives for a future electricity system are discussed from normative economical, political and technological perspectives. At first, general aims for the long-term viable development of energy systems are discussed and indicators for characterising and evaluating balancing strategies are derived. Very significant for the development of the electricity system will be the current and future national and international energy policies with respect to climate change. This discussion is followed by an economic analysis of storing values of electrical energy. This analysis is carried out to reveal options for balancing electricity supply and demand in a system with a high share of electricity produced from wind and solar radiation. In Chap. 3, existing future energy scenarios are analysed and characterised in order to evaluate their applicability to this study. Finally, based on selected scenarios, parameters are derived which can consistently be used as input for the analysis of balancing strategies in the following parts of the study. In Chap. 4, the prospective demand for balancing electrical energy and power is estimated, relying on the parameters extracted from the selected future energy system scenarios. Two approaches are followed. The first assesses the balancing activities required to realise a certain demand and supply structure analogous to a potential target scenario, by assuming the current energy distribution system. The second sets up a completely new infrastructure of energy storage systems and electricity networks as a result of an optimisation process, including the distribution of wind power and photovoltaics over Europe on the basis of hourly weather data covering seven consecutive years. First analyses were performed. In order to investigate situations with high challenges for strategies of balancing electricity

8

1

Introduction

supply and demand, in both cases scenarios with a high share of renewable energy in the system were chosen. In Chap. 5, technological options for balancing electrical energy and power are discussed. For a better description and analysis of the options, a system for characterising the technologies is developed. In order to discuss the potential future competitiveness of the application of storage technologies, costs are analysed for specific tasks. Additionally, various technological options for a stable energy system are analysed with respect to their environmental effects, resource use and system characteristics. This is done in order to assess their future viability. Impacts of the technical changes on the energy networks are analysed in Chap. 6. In addition to an examination of technical-economical barriers, including network requirements, the costs of the network extensions required to make possible balancing activities at daily and seasonal scale are addressed. Chapter 7 discusses potential benefits from storage systems, as well as problems in their realisation. Furthermore, reasons and options for changing economic framework conditions are analysed. This analysis results in economic recommendations for future energy policies. Chapter 8 concentrates on important legal aspects which could hamper centralised and decentralised energy storage systems as well as the required network expansions, using locally relevant technologies such as the smart meter and smart grid as well as regional extensions of transmission lines. Planning and licensing procedures, regulatory incentives, access, unbundling, contractual relationships in large networks, and data protection are identified as important areas for the analysis. The barriers for the future development of an energy system, including the required storage and electricity network capacities identified in the previous chapters, are summarised and concluded in Chap. 9. As a major result of the study, a list of recommendations is derived from the analyses found in the previous chapters. Many of the concepts for an energy system with a high share of renewable energies only make sense on the European scale, where it is possible to efficiently make use of the geographically varying potentials of various renewables, such as intense solar radiation in the southern part of Europe and high wind speeds on the coasts and in elevated areas. It is on the geographical scale of Europe that the most interesting analyses of energy systems that are able to balance energy supply and demand can be made. Theoretically, it is at the European level that renewable energies can most effectively be distributed, including through the import and export of electricity and the use of storage facilities in local areas. Current reality shows, however, that European nations still cling to their sovereignty when it comes to the most relevant energy questions. Thus, there is still no true European energy system or energy market in practice. This means that some issues have to be analysed on the national level, whereas other aspects require a European scale. Analysing all national aspects for all nations in Europe is, however, far beyond the scope of this study. Instead, the focus is placed on Germany as an example of a country with very ambitious aims for the integration of renewable energies in Europe. The German situation is analysed in consideration of the background and influence of the European context.

2

Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

In order to describe the future perspectives of a renewable-dominated electrical energy supply system that will be stable over the long term, first, goals must be established (see Sect. 2.1). Based on these aims, in Sect. 2.2, indicators which can be applied to evaluate and decide upon technological options are discussed. The theoretical background of the renewable energy aims and indicators is supplemented in Sect. 2.3 by the analysis of the current and potential future aims of energy and environmental politics with respect to the energy system. This section points out some of the political challenges that need to be addressed. Finally, the economics of storage system values is discussed, showing that there is an economic motivation to store electricity (see Sect. 2.4).

2.1

Aims for a Long-Term Viable Development of a Renewable-Based Electricity System

The concurring targets of the energy economy are often shown as a triangle of efficiency, supply security and environmental compatibility. It has become increasingly obvious that the current electricity system is incompatible with environmental protection requirements. When reconstructing the electricity systems, the supply security and environmental compatibility targets of the triangle have to be given adequate consideration as well. Ideas for developing such a system can be taken from economic analyses of overall societal efficiency and sustainability.1 These are taken here as a basis for the evaluation of the future viability of various technologies for the electricity system as well as of the system itself. The argumentation is based on work done in Droste-Franke et al. (2009) and Droste-Franke (2005). A more detailed discussion of the individual issues can be found there.

1 Sustainability is used here as specific concepts for maintaining societal assets in the context of ensuring a just intergenerational distribution following de Haan et al. (2008).

B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_2, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

9

10

2.1.1

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

Efficient Allocation and Just Distribution

The fundamental elements of economic action can be reduced to the attribution of existing means to applications (allocation) and to individuals (distribution). In the context of the overall economy, respective economic aims are expressed as efficient allocation and just distribution among current individuals at the present point in time, as well as in the future, between generations living at different time periods. These concepts are known as intra- and intergenerational distributive justice. From a macro-economic point of view, the efficiency of an economy is linked to optimising the welfare of a society as a whole (cf. Schumann 1992). The optimum is derived as a so-called pareto-optimal state in which nobody’s utility can be improved without somebody else’s utility being degraded. Assuming the conditions of an ideal market and basic assumptions about the preferences of individuals, it can be theoretically proven that an equilibrium of supply and demand on the markets leads to such a pareto-optimum (see Malinvaud 1972). Therefore, the aim of economists is to achieve market conditions that are close to perfect so that trading on the markets leads to a pareto-optimum. A presupposition for this is that market failure, which can be caused by market power, badly regulated ownership rights or imperfect market structures is avoided. For the equilibrium it is furthermore important that it is stable; otherwise it will not be reached. In order to achieve intra- and intergenerational distributive justice, the concept of sustainable development has been applied in economic analysis. Quoting the most-cited definition given in the so-called Brundtland report, sustainable development means to implement a “development that meets the need of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED 1987, p. 43). As no information about the needs of future generations exists, for the operationalisation of the concept, it is assumed that future generations have the same needs as the current generation. The goal is to install a type of economic development that ensures that the needs of future persons having identical needs to the persons living today can be satisfied continuously. Development will require monitoring and sufficient flexibility to be able to adjust to changing preferences. Furthermore, the definition does imply that it must not be accepted that future generations may not be able to satisfy their needs (that are assumed to be equal to the needs of the contemporary generation). Thus, the implementation of the precautionary principle in order to avoid inacceptable risks is implicit in the Brundtland definition. The concept of capital2 and assets are critical to this discussion. Capital must be preserved to such an extent that the needs of future generations can still be met. One sub-target is to sustain the total value of the available capital. An equivalent formulation is that the rents obtained from the usage of natural resources must be

2 Capital is used here as generic term for objects which can be used for the production of economic income. This includes beside others produced and natural capital.

2.1

Aims for a Long-Term Viable Development of a Renewable-Based Electricity System 11

re-invested into reproducible capital (Nutzinger and Radke 1995, p. 32). This concept is called “Solow-Hartwick” sustainability or “weak” sustainability. Following the definition of the Brundtland report, for an economic development to be sustainable means that no actions must be taken that could risk the loss of capital and jeopardise the ability of future generations to satisfy their needs. This requires using natural capital in such a way that it will still be available in the future. In order to guarantee this, it is not sufficient to follow the concept of weak sustainability, because some types of natural capital are not substitutable. An often discussed interpretation of the requirements for the adequate protection of natural capital is that its functions have to be preserved. This can be ensured by producing functional-equivalent capital providing the functions to the extent they are on the other side degraded or depleted respectively. Preserving the functions can directly be applied as a principle for the usage of non-renewable resources. Capital is characterised as essential or “critical natural capital” (see Neumayer 1999, p. 27), if it is not substitutable and its reduction to below a critical level could lead to the loss of fundamental life-support functions or mean irreversible destruction resulting in an unacceptable environmental status. The concept can be operationalised by defining limits that ensure that unacceptable risks are avoided, even in situations of risks with high potential impacts, inadequate evaluation because of uncertainty, and lack of knowledge about impacts. Environmental areas in which a critical burden could occur are: climate change, ozone layer depletion, dispersion of toxic substances, and pollution of ecosystems, among others. Another term for this concept is “critical sustainability”.

2.1.2

An Operative Action Rule

The different aims of economic efficiency and distributive justice in its various facets can be combined in the following action rule formulated in the form of four priorities (see Droste-Franke 2005; Droste-Franke et al. 2009): Priority 1. Protection from unacceptable damage through compliance with critical limits of load Critical stocks of each relevant societal asset component3 must not be under-run. Priority 2. Preservation of the total value of produced and natural capital Provided that priority 1 is met, adequately evaluated changes of all relevant societal asset components must add up, at minimum, to zero. In the case that priority 1 can only be reached with a negative balance, this must be minimised.4

3

These include, among other things, natural assets, e.g., ecosystems. The stocks can principally be measured in arbitrary units. 4 This addition is introduced in order to cover the case in which the efforts for guaranteeing the protection from inacceptable damage are so great that a reduction of total assets is necessary. An equivalent formulation is: In the case that priority 1 cannot be reached without a negative balance, the maximum level of societal assets must be aimed for, so that a balance of zero can be reached.

12

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

Priority 3. Maximising intertemporal welfare The present value5 of the intertemporal benefit must be maximised, thus achieving priorities 1 and 2. Priority 4. Just distribution of basics at present The basics for meeting needs, resulting after achieving priorities 1–3, must be justly distributed within and between societies and generations according to societally defined rules. The agreed critical loads for the preservation of critical assets in this context are to be seen as a result of societal processes in which the acceptability of potential impacts from the respective environmental burden is discussed. Discussions for fixing these values build on scientific findings from the corresponding environmental areas. Should new knowledge arise with regard to the values of the critical limits, the costs for achieving the limits, or the impacts occurring if limits are exceeded, then the formerly agreed critical values should be adjusted respectively. The formulated action rule represents a normative frame, which has to be filled with content. In many areas, critical values are not fixed or are still being discussed. Furthermore, the discussion about what has to be preserved and to what extent enters the models, for example, in the form of different assumptions about rates for discounting future impacts and benefits. In areas for which societal agreements exist about critical limits that have to be met, the presented rule provides a possibility for consideration. This can practically be done through, for example, formulating restrictions for the welfare optimisation process. Restrictions, according to priorities 1 and 2, are particularly important if not all relevant aspects can be evaluated adequately in monetary values or if relevant non-linear effects cannot be sufficiently considered in the optimisation process.

2.2

Indicators for the Evaluation of Balancing Strategies

In order to characterise the purposes relevant for a long-term viable development of the energy system, a classification scheme of Steger et al. (2005, p. 54) which distinguishes between three categories is followed in the analysis: – protection of the environment, – availability of resources, – design of the energy system with respect to society. While the availability of resources concerns the inputs available for production, the protection of the environment aims at conserving the assimilation capacity and the life-supporting functions of the environment. The way the energy supply system is organised comprises direct influences of the system via its embodiment in society.

5 By using the present value of the benefit as a uniform value, present prices are used and future benefits are expressed by discounting them to get the present values.

2.2

Indicators for the Evaluation of Balancing Strategies

2.2.1

13

Indicators for Environmental Effects

In evaluating the environmental effects of energy systems, emissions of chemical substances are relevant. Direct emissions of noise and radiation are of less importance, but are also considered if relevant. For the categorisation of relevant substances, characteristics regarding the environmental dispersion, the chemical transformation and the relevant environmental impacts are consulted. The first category resulting from these perspectives is represented by chemical pollutants that directly affect organisms and materials via chemical reactions and mechanical impacts. Amongst other impacts, these lead to harmful effects on ecosystems, crops, materials and human health. Pollutants for which harmful impacts are observed even at very low concentration levels are called toxic substances. Particularly important in this context are substances with long lifetimes, which may accumulate in the environment. Major representatives are heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants and radio-nuclides. Furthermore, optical influences of the atmosphere, such as opacity, can be observed, particularly due to the emission of fine particles and their precursors. Another relevant effect that is currently dominating the discussion of environmental impacts is the emission of gases, which increase the so-called greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. They have an influence on the radiation budget of the Earth by absorbing radiation from the ground in the infrared frequencies and re-emitting partly to the Earth. This effect results in a long-wave counter radiation, causing a higher temperature at ground level than would be observed without these gases. Increasing the natural concentration of the greenhouse gases as well as emitting further gases showing a similar effect on the radiation balance, lead to higher average temperatures and climate change effects. Important are particularly gases absorbing at so far vacant frequencies in the infrared area. The complete effect of the gases typically unfolds only after some years. Not of central importance to this study, but also of relevance, are gases that contribute to the stratospheric depletion of the ozone layer. As already mentioned in the section dealing with the design of the energy system, by following the four priorities in the action rule, two types of risks have to be distinguished: first, risks with limited potential for damage in the areas of human health and produced or natural capital and second, risks that result in large unacceptable damages. In the case of marginal or small damages to the environment, the evaluation is ideally carried out by quantifying the utility losses caused by environmental and human health impacts. For the evaluation of utility losses and external costs from energy systems, the impact pathway analysis has been established within the ExternE project series, which began in the early nineties (European Commission 1995, 1999, 2005a). Starting from the emission of substances, the physical impacts on the environment and human health are estimated by modelling the dispersion and chemical transformation. Based on these estimates, the related utility losses are quantified in monetary terms as far as possible. The uncertainties in the estimates increase with each further step in the impact pathway. If high uncertainties exist in

14

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

parts of the pathway, intermediate indicators like for example, the amount of emissions, concentration increase or additional physical impacts can be consulted additionally or alternatively to the monetised costs for the evaluation of risks arising from energy systems. The impacts that will be analysed from this area are: – impacts on human health, material damage, crop loss and biodiversity loss caused by environmental pollution, – various relevant marginal impacts from climate change. In the area of risks with potentially inacceptable impacts, agreed critical limits should be met. This aspect has already been discussed in the evaluation of the energy system design. Critical limits are defined for many indicators from the respective impact pathway. These can be the amount of emissions, concentration levels or environmental flows, such as the deposition rate of substances. In the case of greenhouse gases, for instance, targets agreed upon for emission reductions in order to avoid potential unacceptable damage, e.g., those required for meeting the two-degree aim, can be interpreted as critical limits. For the aggregation of effects from different emissions, substances with the same impact can be normalised by estimating the relative share of the individual contribution to the respective total impact. In the case of greenhouse gases, for instance, CO2 is taken as a reference and emissions of all gases are usually expressed in CO2 equivalents. In the case of acidification and eutrophication problems, first, concentration levels and deposition values have been taken as a basis for politically fixed limits to the environmental burden. These have then been translated into amounts of emission reduction, which form the foundation for international agreements, e.g., the Gothenburg protocol and related declarations. Impacts considered with respect to critical limits are: – eutrophication and acidification due to environmental pollution, – land use, – depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, – greenhouse effect. Some of the environmental aspects are mentioned for both areas, small and large potential damages. However, the subjects of analysis differ between the two types of risks.

2.2.2

Indicators for Resource Availability

For the evaluation of resource use, it is necessary to know whether resources are depleted by usage or whether they recover to a sufficient extent during usage. Important to resource availability is the competition among different utilisations. This means that situations are possible in which the same resource can be applied only by one party and is blocked for employment by others. Relevant resources that are not depleted by utilisation, but are characterised by competing applications, are available surface area and space. Using an area for

2.2

Indicators for the Evaluation of Balancing Strategies

15

building up a new power plant, for example, fixes the respective land use for the lifetime of the plant. Another example is energy crops competing with the cultivation of food. Indeed, the quality of land could change due to specific usage. In that case, re-establishment to the previous state is in the first instance a question of costs and the loss of values, and not of critical loads. To a large extent, only the change of land use will have a strong influence on the environment, particularly on the entire ecosystem, so that this kind of usage can be interpreted as being critical. An evaluation of land use change should be carried out, as far as possible in comparison to the previous land use. In addition to recovery costs, losses of utility, as well as other (non-use) values (e.g., option value, loss of originality), are particularly important for the evaluation of land use changes if the previous state cannot be recovered. A special case is resources for which the recovery rate is larger than the depletion rate, such as regenerative cultivated biomass, and resources not being depleted by usage over time in any way, such as the continuous flow of sunlight and wind velocities. As long as the ability of regeneration is guaranteed, there are no temporal resource problems from using a resource. Further relevant resources in the area of energy systems are materials obtained from the ground. These are on the one hand energetic resources such as gas, oil and coal and on the other hand minerals that are required for the production of energy technologies. These materials are also called non-renewable resources, because their regeneration rate is much lower than the depletion rate. Non-renewable usage of land also has to be mentioned in this context. For these kinds of resources, critical situations may occur that are characterised by increasing shortage and, thus, increasing prices and supply costs. In this way, the amount of known resources being economically exploitable, also called “reserves”, may decrease over time. An important indicator for the resource availability is the ratio of the reserves to the current production (reserves-to-production ratio). This indicates how long the reserves would last if the current production rate was kept constant. Steger et al. (2005, p. 54) also call this indicator the “period of secure practice”. Following Steger et al. (2005), for a sustainable management of non-renewable resources, the “period of secure practice” should not decrease over time and not become less than 60 years. This is the time period estimated to be necessary for restructuring the energy system. Claiming that the reserves-to-production ratio should not decrease does not mean that the respective non-renewable resource must not be used, but that a decrease in the stock of economically exploitable resources must be balanced by reducing the production, e.g., by using alternatives. Scarcity of non-renewable resources can additionally be forced by the monopolistic structure of the supply side, which results from the naturally determined hotspots of resource availability in only a few countries and the large infrastructure required to deliver some of the resources to the demand side, such as pipelines and refineries. Therefore, observable concentration in reserves and delivery and supply chain in nations or companies are further interesting indicators.

16

2.2.3

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

Indicators for the Design of the Energy Supply System

Following Steger et al. (2002, 2005), three relevant aspects can be distinguished concerning the design of an energy system: supply reliability, risk avoidance and openness of options. Furthermore, the invested and variable economic costs of the options and, thus, the amount of fixed monetary capital, are important. Numerous indicators have been discussed in this area. These indicators aim mostly at the evaluation of complete energy systems (see, for example, Kopfm€uller et al. 2000; IAEA 2005; IEA 2007; RNE 2007). However, in this study the subject of investigation is only a part of the energy system. Thus, only some of the discussed indicators are applicable to this analysis. Concerning supply reliability, it is important that the quality of electricity supply with a high share of renewable energy sources, such as solar radiation and wind, can be ensured sufficiently through balancing electric power and energy. Strategies and technologies applicable for this purpose are at the focus of this study. A sufficient quality of supply would of course be reached if the quality provided were the same as that of the current energy system. Additionally, it has to be discussed in how far flexibilities on the demand side should be considered in the system in order also to use demand-side management and to outbid the allowed ranges in which no increase of damages to devices and to people is anticipated. A further aspect that is relevant for supply reliability is the extent to which dependencies on third parties exist with regard to purchased resources. This issue has also been discussed in the previous section. With respect to the aim of risk avoidance, risks that are not acceptable to society should be obviated and high risks should be minimised as far as possible. Beyond technical risks, risks related to environmental burdens are considered here. This includes risks with a large number of small potential individual impacts, including on human health, for which impacts should be minimised. In addition, large-scale risks are also relevant; these are, for example, major environmental damages. Avoiding such risks requires the establishment of critical limits as defined by society. Maintaining an openness of options for new discoveries stemming from research and development is important for realising an optimal energy system. Different energy technologies show various levels of potential promise in this regard. Interesting characteristics of the technologies are the applicability of alternative fuels, their lifetime and the long-term nature of required investments. Investment costs and variable costs of the different technological options are major variables to take into consideration in the design of a future energy system. Once a decision is made for a specific option, costs occur, binding up capital that could otherwise be invested in alternative societal aims. Thus, it is important to look closely at costs. However, to get the whole picture, socio-economic costs have to be taken into account, additional to microeconomic components. Furthermore, long time periods have to be taken into account, because low costs at present may implicate high costs in the future. In the approach followed for this study, energy system set-ups will be optimised for certain points in time, while the framework

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17

conditions and political decisions influencing the implementation of strategies will be considered. The starting points for the projection of framework conditions are future scenarios derived within other studies (see Sect. 3.1). Additional to already existing studies, this study will analyse strategies for balancing power and energy for electricity supply in greater detail than has been done previously and will likewise also consider economic, political and legal aspects.

2.3

Political Governance Towards a Renewable Energy Electricity System in Europe

The theoretical discussion above relating to the aims and goals for a viable, lowcarbon future energy supply is important as background information. It is society, however, that must decide on the necessity of investing in and developing a new energy system (or in this case, electricity system), the direction of that system, and the extent of measures to be taken to spur on the transition. To get a picture of actual developments with respect to the establishment of a new electricity system, a detailed analysis of current and planned political governance processes and policies is indispensible. The analysis starts with a description of the system and the current trends reflecting the impacts of already initiated policies. This is followed by a discussion of specific policy activities that are aimed at restructuring the electricity system. Finally, important challenges for energy policy are discussed.

2.3.1

Historical Background, Current Status and Development of Europe’s Energy System

A variety of factors are driving a slow transition of European approaches to energy in general, and electricity in particular, including concerns about Europe’s heavy dependence on energy imports from abroad, rising fossil fuel energy prices, and ecological constraints. These concerns were summed up in a January 2007 European Commission Communication on EU energy policy: “[T]he days of cheap energy for Europe seem to be over. The challenges of climate change, increasing import dependence and higher energy prices are faced by all EU members” (European Commission 2007a). The challenge for Europe is providing the right incentives and structures to make an energy transition towards greater renewable energies, especially in the electricity sector, possible. The transformation will require not only technological innovations and engineering solutions, but also an appropriate policy framework and public understanding and acceptance.

2.3.1.1 Europe’s Growing Energy Dependence In 2009, close to two-thirds of the total energy consumption mix in Europe was based on fossil fuels (36.6% oil, 15.7% coal, and 24.5% natural gas). Nuclear held a 13.6% share and renewable energies combined an 8.9% share (Eurostat 2011d).

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2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

However, European supplies of fossil fuels are constrained. The European Union is a net energy importer. Its dependency on energy imports has increased from 45% in 1997 to 53.8% in 2008. EU energy dependency is particularly high in the cases of oil (83.5% in 2009), coal (62.2%) and natural gas (64.2%) (Eurostat 2011d). With growing demand for energy resources and minerals coming from emerging economies (e.g., China, India, South Africa, Brazil), expectations are that energy prices will rise, hurting European economies.

2.3.1.2 Climate Change Constraints Even more pressing than these resource constraints are the environmental constraints tied to the heavily fossil-fuel based economies of Europe and other regions of the globe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many other bodies warn that the emissions from fossil fuel burning are contributing to a warming of global average temperatures and putting the planet at risk of severe weather extremes. The warming of the planet will affect seasonal temperatures and rainfall patterns, turning some parts of the planet into desert-like regions and others into flood areas. The melting of polar ice and glaciers could contribute to sea level rise, impacting coastlines and low-lying states. More severe storms and hurricanes and periods of excessive heat and drought are also predicted. The survival of planet and animal species could also be put at risk (IPCC 2007). 2.3.1.3 Climate Change as a Driving Force Behind the Search for a Low-Carbon Electricity System Climate change policies have been critical to recent changes in European energy policies. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require Europe to shift away from its still heavy dependence on fossil energies. Climate change prerogatives, defined to protect from unacceptable climate change effects, have been a driving factor in the promotion of greater energy efficiency, greenhouse gas emission reductions and renewable energy. 2.3.1.4 Growing Diversification of the Energy Supply The incentive to diversify energy supplies and increase domestic production sources is becoming increasingly strong. EU domestic energy production in 2009 stood at 28.4% nuclear, 20.4% coal, 18.8% natural gas, 12.8% crude oil, and 18.3% renewable energy. It is striking that by far the fastest growing energy sector is renewables, which accounted for only 9.7% of domestic energy production in 1999, but, as noted above, twice that amount a decade later. Based on Eurostat data, it is possible to calculate that during the same time frame production of other energy sources fell: crude oil (
33%), natural gas (
14.5%), and solid fuels (
14%) (Eurostat 2011d). Thus, the incentive to diversify energy supplies and increase domestic production, especially of renewable energy, is becoming stronger. Renewable energy power capacity is expanding. The EU has begun to think more strategically about how it can shift from its still heavily fossil-fuel based energy structure toward a more low-carbon energy supply. While Europe remains heavily dependent upon fossil fuels, a clear shift in the

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energy mix over time is becoming visible. In the electricity sector, renewables accounted for 11.9% of EU-27 gross electricity consumption in 1990, 13.8% in 2000, and 16.7% in 2008 (ibid.). As renewable energies are relatively noncontroversial, can be domestically developed, and are also climate-friendly, there has been a big push in this direction in recent years. The challenge for the coming decades will be to create an infrastructure, including electricity grid structures and storage systems, that will make possible the further rapid expansion of renewable energy.

2.3.1.5 Trends in Renewable Energy Production in Europe There was a 38.4% increase in renewable energy production capacity between 2002 and 2007 within the EU. During the same time frame, domestic production of other energy sources dropped off: 28.7% in the case of crude oil, 18.1% in the case of natural gas, and 11.1% in the case of solid fuels. Renewable energy growth in electricity generation has been particularly strong in relation to photovoltaics and wind (see Fig. 2.1).

2.3.2

Political Governance Activities for Organising the Future Energy System

2.3.2.1 Regional Cooperation in Developing Renewables There are several ambitious regional renewable energy policies that are forming. One is in the North Sea region, where Norway, Sweden, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark and the United Kingdom are cooperating in the development of a regional grid structure and offshore wind parks. For northern Europe, offshore wind could provide large shares of electricity in the future years, although this will require the development of a grid structure to transport the wind from offshore wind 45,000 40,000

[1,000 toe]

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000

solar PV wind geothermal hydro

10,000 5,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Fig. 2.1 Electricity generation from renewable sources (Data source: Eurostat 2011g)

20

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

park locations to demand centres. The German Environment Advisory Council (SRU) has focused attention on the important potential of offshore wind in the North Sea and pump storage capacity in Scandinavia for contributing to meeting ambitious renewable energy goals (SRU 2011). Interest in the large-scale solar energy potential of the Mediterranean and northern African regions are also rapidly building in Europe. The German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum f€ ur Luft- und Raumfahrt – DLR) has conducted satellite-based studies that suggest as little as 0.3% of the desert areas of the Mediterranean and northern Africa would be necessary to produce enough electricity and desalinated seawater to meet the expanding needs for energy and water in Africa and Europe. Before solar energy could be delivered to Europe from the region, grid interconnectivity will have to be achieved. Efforts to integrate energy markets in general are still at a nascent stage, but movements are rapid. At the bilateral level, Joint Declarations on Energy Cooperation have been signed between the European Commission and Morocco (July 2007) and Jordan (October 2007) and an EUEgypt Memorandum of Understanding on Energy was reached in December 2008 (European Commission 2008a). At the multilateral level, plans are forming for a Mediterranean Ring under the European-Mediterranean Partnership (the Barcelona Process). The idea is to provide electric power transmission grid interconnectivity among the littoral states of the Mediterranean Sea. The concept envisions linking electric power grids from Spain to Morocco, on to the Magreb (north Africa and western Arab) countries, through Egypt and the Mashreq (eastern Arab) countries, and on to Turkey and then Greece. The electric grid could potentially link into the European grid through Greece. Currently, the integration of electricity markets is still limited. The European Commission is helping to fund related projects, such as the Maghreb Electricity Sub-Regional Project, which aims to create an electricity market among Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria. Morocco and Algeria are cooperating in a joint venture to connect the Algerian power grid to the European Union through Morocco. The initial objective of the Mediterranean Solar Plan is for 20 GW of added renewable energy capacities by 2020 for the region. It is expected that 3–4 GW of this will come from photovoltaics, 5–6 GW from wind and 10–12 GW by concentrating solar power (CSP). CSP uses mirrors that reflect and concentrate sunlight on a central column filled with water, in turn turning the water into steam that can be used to drive turbines. For this plan to function, the physical interconnection of Tunisia and Italy and Turkey and Greece is considered necessary (EPIA 2008). The TREC international network of scientists and engineers (now known as the DESERTEC Foundation) together with the Club of Rome have presented an idea for solar energy development in the deserts of northern Africa: DESERTEC, Clean Power for Europe. DESERTEC envisions a future where mass-scale production of concentrating solar power (CSP) in the deserts of northern Africa will supplement European renewable energy sources and help Europe to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions and meet its electricity needs.

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A group of 20 German firms, including Siemens, Deutsche Bank, RWE and E.on plan to form a consortium to invest in the order of 400 billion € into the development of CSP in northern Africa. The goal will be to achieve 15% of European electricity needs within a decade (Connolly 2009).

2.3.2.2 National Actions Within the EU on Climate Change and Renewable Energy There is considerable diversity in both renewable energy supply and renewable energy policy among the member states of the EU. Iceland and Norway have already achieved 100% renewable energy for their electricity consumption. (Norway at times even produces more renewables than it can consume.) Due to the early introduction of a favourable feed-in tariff, Denmark expanded the share of renewable energy in its gross electricity consumption from 2.6% in 1990 to 28.7% in 2008. In the same time period, Germany, which also introduced a feed-in tariff, expanded the share of renewable energies from 3.8% to 15.4%, Ireland basically more than doubled its share from 4.8% to 11.7%, the Netherlands increased from 1.4% to 8.9% and Spain saw a growth from 17.2% to 20.6% share. Some countries, however, saw little change in the share of their renewables in their gross electricity consumption (e.g., Italy) or even experienced a decline. In Austria, there was a drop from 65.4% to 62% and France from 14.8% to 14.4% (Table 2.1). Efforts to develop a EU renewable energy-based electricity structure will be heavily influenced by the block’s three largest economies: Germany, the United Kingdom and France. All three have in recent years shown signs of more strongly embracing renewable energy, although big differences remain among them, particularly in their positions on nuclear energy. France is a relatively small emitter of greenhouse gases, largely due to its heavy dependence on nuclear energy (78% of electricity) and hydroelectric plants (12%). In 2007, the French government launched the Grenelle de l’Environnement, under which it plans to invest in fourth generation nuclear power plants, develop renewable energies, and promote public transportation and green buildings. The United Kingdom is the EU’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. North Sea oil and gas production peaked in 2000, however, and since then the United Kingdom has become a net importer, although its import dependency (21.6% in 2006) is relatively low compared with, for example, Germany (62%) or the EU average (54%). The United Kingdom could also be strongly impacted by climatic changes should sea levels rise or the Gulf Stream shift course. The British parliament became the first in the world to set a long-term, legally binding framework to address climate change when it passed the Climate Change Act in 2008. The Act mandates a cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. The law requires that the UK’s carbon account be 80% below 1990 levels by 2050; moreover, it requires a reduction of at least 26% by 2020 (compared with 1990) and periodic carbon budget reviews (Turner 2008). The British strategy for meeting this goal includes plans for renewables, energy efficiency improvements, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and new nuclear power plants (Committee on Climate Change 2009).

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2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

Table 2.1 Share of renewable electricity in gross electricity consumption (in percent) 1990–2008 (Source: Eurostat 2011b) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2008 EU27 11.9 13 13.8 14 16.7 Belgium 1.1 1.2 1.5 2.8 5.3 Bulgaria 4.1 4.2 7.4 11.8 7.4 Czech Republic 1.9 3.9 3.6 4.5 5.2 Denmark 2.6 5.9 16.7 28.3 28.7 Germany 3.8 5.0 6.5 10.5 15.4 Estonia 0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 Ireland 4.8 4.1 4.9 6.7 11.7 Greece 5.0 8.4 7.7 10.0 8.3 Spain 17.2 14.3 15.7 15.0 20.6 France 14.8 17.8 15.1 11.3 14.4 Italy 13.9 14.9 16.0 14.1 16.6 Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0.3 Latvia 43.9 47.1 47.7 48.4 41.2 Lithuania 2.5 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.6 Luxembourg 2.0 2.3 2.9 3.3 4.1 Hungary 0.5 0.7 0.7 4.6 5.6 Malta 0 0 0 0 0 Netherlands 1.4 2.1 3.9 7.5 8.9 Austria 65.4 70.6 72.4 58.4 62.0 Poland 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.9 4.2 Portugal 34.5 27.5 29.4 16.0 26.9 Romania 23.0 28 28.8 35.8 28.4 Slovenia 25.8 29.5 31.7 24.2 29.1 Slovakia 6.4 17.9 16.9 16.7 15.5 Finland 24.4 27 28.5 26.9 31.0 Sweden 51.4 48.2 55.4 54.3 55.5 United Kingdom 1.7 2.0 2.7 4.3 5.6 Iceland 99.9 99.8 99.9 99.9 – Norway 114.6 104.6 112.2 108.4 109.4

Germany has particularly ambitious climate and renewable energy goals and legislation. The German government has actively promoted renewable energy, beginning with the 1990 Electricity Feed-in Law and the Renewable Energy Law of 2000 (with a target for doubling the share of renewable energy in the electricity market from 5% to 10% by 2010). The growth of renewables is also linked to decisions to phase out nuclear energy in Germany. In 2000, the German government passed a nuclear phase-out law (a ban on new plants and a phased shutdown of existing reactors) that targeted a phase out by around 2021. In December 2007, the government introduced an Integrated Energy and Climate Package setting a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by around 40% of 1990 levels by 2020. The package included 14 pieces of legislation that promote

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23

energy efficiency and renewable energies in the electricity and heat sectors, among other areas (BMU 2007). Then, in October 2010, the German parliament passed a new Energy Concept for the Future (BMU 2010). The plan reaffirmed an earlier goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2020 and also included a series of targets for the coming decades: 55% reduction by 2030, 70% by 2040, and 80–95% by 2050. Renewable energy is to account for 80% of electricity by 2050 (with interim goals of 35% by 2020, 50% by 2030, and 65% by 2040). The share of renewable energies in gross final consumption is also to increase to 18% by 2020, 30% by 2030, 45% by 2040, and 60% by 2050. Energy efficiency is also to be pushed forward, by cutting primary energy use by 50% by 2050 relative to 2008 levels. More controversially, the concept prolonged the shutdown dates of the country’s nuclear power plants by an average of 12 years (Bundesregierung 2010). After the Fukushima nuclear reactor disasters, this decision was again changed. The seven oldest nuclear power plants were taken off line immediately after the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe. They are to remain off line. Another plant that was already off line for technical repairs is to remain off line. This shutdown reduces German nuclear capacity by about 40%. Of the remaining nine plants, six are to be phased out by 2021 at the latest. For the three youngest plants, a 2022 shutdown date is possible. These policy decisions have major implications for energy and electricity policy in the years to come. To meet both its climate change goal and the replacement of nuclear generation capacity, Germany plans to invest strongly in renewable energy development. This means there will need to be rapid development in centralised offshore and onshore wind, decentralised solar photovoltaics, solar thermal, concentrated solar thermal (in southern Germany, but also possibly in southern Europe and northern Africa), geothermal and biomass. It will also be necessary to develop electricity storage capacity and build a high-voltage grid structure. As can be seen, the three largest economies of the European Union have very different energy mixes. This complicates efforts to establish common goals on electricity generation across Europe. Nevertheless, the EU has managed to win consensus on promoting the growth of renewable electricity. Due to geographic as well as political and economic factors, the extent and distribution of renewables in the final total energy mix of member states varies substantially. Countries where there is large hydro potential – Norway, Sweden, Finland, Austria and Switzerland – can meet large shares of domestic demand from hydro. They may also in the future be able to provide hydro-pump storage capacity. Denmark, Germany and Spain have done comparatively well in building non-hydro renewable energies (wind and, in the case of Germany and Spain, also substantial amounts of solar). Denmark obtains approximately one-quarter of its electricity from wind. Germany has experienced a strong growth in renewables in the past years, so that between 2005 and 2010, the share of renewables grew more than 10% to approximately 17% of the total final electricity consumption. Along with further expansion of renewable energy at the national level, for Europe to achieve a greater share of its electricity from renewables in the future will require far greater cooperation among member states, better interconnectivity, and the development of high-voltage electric grids and electricity storage infrastructure.

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2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

2.3.2.3 European Policies for a Low-Carbon Energy Market In comparison with the level of policy harmonisation that has been achieved in the environmental area, integration of European energy markets and harmonisation of European energy policy has been relatively limited. Integration and policy harmonisation have been stymied by the different energy mixes of member states and strong concerns about national energy sovereignty. Yet, pressures to change this and to develop a more coordinated and low-carbon energy mix are growing. Despite the strong role of national governments in energy policy matters, considerable progress has been achieved in developing EU targets in areas where energy policy is closely tied to climate considerations. EU climate policy is seen as a way of moving member economies towards greater energy autonomy, resource efficiency and technological progress. Early steps were taken to promote an energy transition in the 1990s when several individual European countries established voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Negotiations leading to the formation of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 further helped to raise European public awareness of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU-15 committed itself to an 8% cut in their greenhouse gases relative to 1990 levels. Under an internal burden-sharing arrangement, different national targets were formulated for the different member states. The national targets were based on a mix of factors that included national capabilities, the existing energy mix, and per capita economic wealth. Some countries took on very large reduction targets relative to their 1990 emissions levels (Austria
13%, Belgium
7.5%, Denmark
21%, Germany
21%, Italy
6.5%, Luxembourg
28%, Netherlands
6%, United Kingdom
12.5%), others agreed to stabilise their emissions (France and Finland 0%), while other poorer member states were permitted to increase their emissions (Greece þ25%, Ireland þ13%, Portugal þ27%, Spain þ15%), but at rates lower than what a business-as-usual trajectory would have predicted. Sweden adopted a þ4% target but later adopted national legislation that imposed a
4% target by 2010. Trends to develop renewables in Europe began to take on a supranational flavour in the late 1990s in parallel to these climate policy goals. In 1997, the European Community prepared the “Energy for the Future: Renewable Sources of Energy”, White Paper for a Community Strategy and Action Plan (European Commission 1997). This was the first time that the European Community set a renewable energy goal. The goal established then has yet to be achieved: 12% of total energy consumption from renewables by 2010. (As of 2007, the European Union was meeting 6.7% of its total energy needs from renewables.) In 2001, as the European Community began to gear up for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and, following the implementation of renewable energy legislation in Germany, Spain and Denmark, more serious attention began to be turned to the potential to develop renewables within the electricity sector in Europe. Directive 2001/77/EC formulated a goal to achieve 21% of the EU’s electricity from renewable energy sources by 2010. Indicative targets were established for each EU member state. As of 2008, 16.7% of the European Union’s final electricity

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Political Governance Towards a Renewable Energy Electricity System in Europe

25

consumption was from renewable sources, still short of the 21% target. As of 2007, Denmark, Germany and Hungary were the only countries that had met their specific targets already (European Commission 2009c). In March 2007, the EU Council set a series of new climate and energy goals and targets that were later embodied in EU Decision No 406/2009/EC (European Commission 2009a). The EU recognised the importance of preventing a rise in global average temperatures of more than 2ºC above pre-industrial levels, the level beyond which the IPCC warns that the consequences of climate change could become particularly severe and possibly irreversible. For developed countries, this meant achieving a reduction of 60–80% of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. To begin the process of meeting this challenge, the EU committed to reducing the EU-27’s greenhouse gas emissions by 20% of 1990 levels by 2020 or 30% if other major emitting countries commit to comparable action, expanding the share of renewable energy in the EU’s primary energy mix to 20% by 2020 and enhancing energy efficiency by 20% compared to 2005 levels by 2020. These goals are to be reached with the assistance of various policies and programs. One is a revision of the EU carbon Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that was established by Directive 2003/87/EC. The EU ETS covers over 12,000 major emissions sources (e.g., utilities, manufacturing industries, cement industry, pulp, paper) and covers approximately 40% of all EU carbon dioxide emissions. As a result of the Linking Directive (Directive 2004/101/EC), emission reduction credits obtained through the clean development mechanism and joint implementation, including in renewable energies, can be used in the ETS (European Commission 2004). The first phase of the emissions trading scheme, which ran from 2005 to 2007, encountered some serious problems due to an over-allocation of permits by individual member states to their industries. As a result of stronger control and intervention by the European Commission, national governments issued fewer permits for the second phase, which runs from 2008 until 2012. The third phase, which begins in 2013, will gradually phase out the free allocation of emission allowances and replace it with auctioning. To meet the 2020 goals, the emission allowances available to industries will be reduced by 21% of 2005 levels by 2020 (European Commission 2010b). Second, much as is the case under the Kyoto agreement, national effort sharing arrangements were introduced to cover emissions from sectors not covered by the ETS: housing, transportation, agriculture and waste. Decision number 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Commission distributed greenhouse gas emission reduction targets among member states. The reduction targets are relative to 2005 emission levels. Emission reduction targets were influenced by member states’ economic wealth (GDP/capita). Richer states agreed to higher reduction targets. Thus, Luxembourg, Denmark and Ireland must reduce their emissions by 20%; Spain by 17%; Austria, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom by 16%; Germany and France by 14%; Italy by 13%, Spain by 10%, Cyprus by 5%, and Greece by 4%. Other states will be allowed to increase their emissions, but at a rate below business-as-usual estimates. Thus, Romania and

26

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

Bulgaria, for example, are allowed to increase their emissions, respectively by 19% and 20%. Poland is permitted a 14% increase and Hungary a 10% increase. The combined impact of these targets is expected to reduce EU emissions in sectors not covered by the ETS by 10% of 2005 levels by 2020. States will be permitted to use the Kyoto flexibility mechanisms to meet some of their reduction targets. The combined emission reduction cuts through the ETS and non-ETS sectors are expected to result in total reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 20% of 1990 levels by 2020 (European Commission 2009a). Third, in January 2008, the European Commission issued a draft directive that called for an increase in the share of renewables in final energy consumption from the 8.5% level achieved as of 2005 to 20% by 2020. The European Parliament approved Directive 2009/28/EC (the Renewable Energy Directive) in December 2008. All member states are obliged to expand their share of renewables by a minimum of 5% from their 2005 levels. In addition, depending on a country’s per capita GDP and renewable energy conditions, additional amounts were taken on by some countries. To apply pressure on member states to fulfil their goals, interim targets were set up as well. States are expected on average to have met 25% of their goal between 2011 and 2012; 35% between 2013 and 2014, 45% between 2015 and 2016, and 65% between 2017 and 2018. A similar kind of burden-sharing agreement to that used with the Kyoto Protocol was established to meet the EU’s 20% renewable energy target. Member states’ targets were determined on the basis of a formula that included a flat rate increase in renewables of 5.5% above their 2005 levels and an additional increase based on per capita gross domestic product (European Commission 2009b). Ten states have renewable energy targets ranging from 10% to 15%, eleven states targets from 16% to 25%, and six states targets of 30–49% (ibid.:46) (Table 2.2). Within the different member states of the EU, there is a wide variety of different support schemes in operation, including feed-in tariffs, premium systems, green certificates, tax exemptions, requirements for fuel suppliers, public procurement expectations, and research and development programs. Largely due to sovereignty concerns, the Commission has concluded that while harmonisation of support schemes may be desirable in the long run, at the present time, cooperation between countries and optimisation of existing support schemes must be pursued (European Commission 2005b, 2008c). The Commission has also called for pursuing means to promote long-term stability for investors. Importantly, there is a link between the Renewable Energy Directive and market trading. Under the directive, member states can link their national support schemes to those of other EU member states. In addition, the directive allows for the import of “physical” renewable energy from third-country sources (making it possible, for example, to import renewables from North Africa). Open trading in renewables is restricted to trades of excess renewables credits (in the form of “statistical transfers”) among member states that have met their interim targets (EurActiv 2011a). A fourth element is a directive addressing the legal framework for carbon capture and storage, a technology that is still in the early stages of development.

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Political Governance Towards a Renewable Energy Electricity System in Europe

27

Table 2.2 Burden sharing: national renewable energy targets for 2020 (flat rate increase in renewables of 5.5% above existing levels & additional increase based on per capita GDP) Member state Share of renewables 2005 (%) Share required by 2020 (%) Austria 23.3 34 Belgium 2.2 13 Bulgaria 9.4 16 Cyprus 2.9 13 Czech Republic 6.1 13 Denmark 17.0 30 Estonia 18.0 25 Finland 28.5 38 France 10.3 23 Germany 5.8 18 Greece 6.9 18 Hungary 4.3 13 Ireland 3.1 16 Italy 5.2 17 Latvia 32.6 40 Lithuania 15.0 23 Luxembourg 0.9 11 Malta 0.0 10 The Netherlands 2.4 14 Poland 7.2 15 Portugal 20.5 31 Romania 17.8 24 Slovak Republic 6.7 14 Slovenia 16.0 25 Spain 8.7 20 Sweden 39.8 49 United Kingdom 1.3 15

Many other related directives exist as well. Examples include Directive 2006/32/ EC on energy end-use efficiency and energy services, passed in April 2006. This directive establishes a target of a 9% cut in energy use over business-as-usual trends between 2008 and 2017 and requires a rolling series of energy efficiency action plans (2007, 2011, 2014) (European Commission 2006, p.73). Directive 2010/31/ EU, passed in May 2010, on the energy performance of buildings complements Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 October 2009 establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for energy-related products and Directive 2010/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 May 2010 on the indication by labelling and standard product information of the consumption of energy and other resources by energyrelated products.

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2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

2.3.2.4 The European Energy Council of 2011 The 2011 European Council (4 February 2011) meeting focused special attention on the importance of securing for Europe “[s]afe, secure, sustainable and affordable energy contributing to European competitiveness” and called for “a fully functioning, interconnected and integrated internal energy market” by 2014. The goal is to allow gas and electricity to move freely across the EU. The Council called upon ACER national regulators and transmission systems operators to move forward on market coupling and guidelines as well as on network codes applicable across European networks. The Council also concluded the importance of adopting technical standards for electric vehicle charging systems by mid-2011 and for smart grids and meters by late 2012. The Council decision also focused attention on the need to interconnect networks across borders in order to “ensure that solidarity between member states will become operational, that alternative supply/transit routes and sources of energy will materialise and that renewables will develop and compete with traditional sources.” The Council suggested that this requires streamlining and improving authorisation procedures for the building of new infrastructure. The Council further called for greater investments in energy efficiency to enhance competitiveness and strengthen security of supply and to put the 20% energy efficiency target for 2020 on track (European Council 2011). 2.3.2.5 Moving Towards Higher Emission Reduction Targets There are growing discussions as to whether the EU should move beyond its 20% target for 2020. In 2010, the Commission released a Communique´ discussing the steps that would be necessary for the EU if it were to determine to pursue a 30% emission reduction by 2020 relative to 1990 levels. This has yet, however, to win EU-wide endorsement. Long-term goals are solidifying around a low-carbon energy future for Europe. In October 2009, and again in February 2011 at the EU Energy Summit, European leaders announced a commitment to an 80–95% emission reduction target for 2050 relative to 1990 emission levels. 2.3.2.6 Roadmap for a Low-Carbon Economy in 2050 Success in further expanding the share of renewables in the electricity sector will be dependent upon technological advancements and market signals, political guidance and intervention, and public support. The European Commission has prepared a roadmap for how a low-carbon economy could be achieved by 2050. It should be noted that this is not a legally binding document. The roadmap includes a target of achieving 93–99% CO2 reduction in the electricity sector by 2050 in order to make it possible to achieve 80–95% CO2 reduction in the overall primary energy balance. Mid-term targets for reductions of CO2 in the primary energy mix are 25% reduction by 2020, 40% by 2030, 60% by 2040, and 80–95% by 2050. Pressures are building for Europe to go beyond the 20% greenhouse gas emission reduction target that was established for 2020, although resistance to stronger targets also remains strong. The 25% target

2.3

Political Governance Towards a Renewable Energy Electricity System in Europe

29

appears to be a compromise between the existing 20% reduction target and the proposed 30% reduction target. The roadmap calls for major and sustained investment in renewable energy and smart grids along with carbon capture and storage. It also envisions an electrification of the transport sector. Interestingly, the roadmap, which has been prepared by the Director General for Climate Change, predicts that the transition will require an addition 270 billion € (or 1.5% of EU GDP per annum) on top of the existing 19% of GDP currently spent, but that over a 40-year time frame, energy savings and renewable energies could result in sharp reductions in EU average fuel costs, leading to savings that could amount to between 175 and 320 billion € per year (EurActiv 2011b). With the release of the roadmap, the EU will need to give more attention to the appropriate policy measures and instruments to make the development of a single European electricity market possible. This will require the formulation of national support systems that are flanked by strong EU targets and measures.

2.3.2.7 Supporting Infrastructure Development for Renewable Energy Continued growth in renewable energy capacity will require the development of new electricity grids that are capable of transmitting fluctuating supplies across long distances. Currently, the EU lacks the interconnectors that would make it possible to move electricity across the continent. In November 2010, the European Commission released “Infrastructure priorities for 2020 and beyond – a blueprint for an integrated European energy network” (European Commission 2010a). As the blueprint notes, already the lack of adequate interconnectivity and storage capacity has prevented the EU from being able to respond to energy shortages in some member states or to efficiently make use of existing capacity. Building the necessary infrastructure will require huge investments. The blueprint estimates that around one trillion € will need to be invested through 2020 to meet Europe’s energy system needs. About half of this will be necessary for networks for electricity and gas distribution, transmission, storage and smart grids (ibid.). 2.3.2.8 Public Acceptance An energy transformation could bring many benefits for Europe in terms of reduced health costs and environmental damage as well as in terms of creating new markets and jobs. The renewable energy sector is becoming a major employer in Europe. Europe has become a global leader in renewable energy technologies. It holds about 60% of the world market share in wind energy technologies (European Commission 2007a). Nonetheless, there will be many public acceptance questions associated with the large-scale expansion of renewables. There will inevitably be problems related to land and accession rights needed for the building of renewable energy facilities as well as supporting infrastructure, including grid structures, interconnectors and storage capacity. As has been seen at various times throughout Europe, movements opposing wind parks, solar farms or geothermal facilities have successfully blocked the

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2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

development of some renewable electricity projects and infrastructure. In the future, public acceptance will have to be won if a major redesign of the electricity structure is to be achieved. Participatory decision-making processes must be central to any movements towards wider expansion of renewables. The Ethics Commission for a Safe Energy Supply recommended that the German government establish a Forum for an Energy Dialogue with citizens to involve them in all phases of the planning and decision-making process (Ethik-Kommission 2011). This kind of forum is a matter that should be considered at an early stage of the strengthening of both German and EU renewable energy programs. There are many issues where the public can and should have influence. One area is in relation to the extent to which an approach that is based on larger, more centralised renewable energy facilities and large-scale storage systems or more decentralised structure and storage capacity systems should be followed (e.g., storage systems (batteries) at the household level). Another is in relation to whether grid lines are kept above ground, which is cheaper, or buried, which is more expensive but aesthetically less disruptive. The development of a new electricity structure that incorporates a high percentage of renewable electricity is influenced/affected not only by technological and economic questions but also by societal values and preferences.

2.3.3

Challenges Ahead

Clearly, many challenges remain for a large-scale transformation to a renewable electricity system in Europe. Prior to the Treaty of Lisbon, the European Community had no explicit competence in the energy field. The necessary legal basis for Community action on energy issues stemmed primarily from other policy areas. EU policy on electricity and gas markets was premised on the Community’s competence for forming a common market. Its competence relating to renewable energy was tied to articles on the environment. Changes under the Lisbon Treaty, which came into force on December 1, 2009 and reforms EU institutions and rules, have expanded the rule of the EU in energy policy matters. The treaty has made energy an area of joint competency between the EU and member states. Under the Lisbon Treaty, efforts to further harmonise renewable energy strategies, improve the electricity grid and related storage capacity, promote energy efficiency and enhance energy security should become somewhat easier, although large differences remain in the energy policies, concerns and trajectories of different member states.

2.4

Economics of Storing Values

2.4.1

Energy Economic Background

Thinking about the energy sector usually concentrates on three objectives (Mulder and Willems 2009): (1) security of energy supply, (2) affordability and (3) environmental friendliness. Changes to these objectives or in the potential for their

2.4

Economics of Storing Values

31

realisation can lead to changes in the energy sector. Although the goal of environmental sustainability played only a small role in energy policy decisions in the past, there has been an increase in the public’s consciousness of environmental costs of the existing energy structure. A growing understanding of the link between the burning of fossil fuels and the greenhouse effect has most probably caused this. There is increasingly strong political pressure for the realisation of environmentally sound economic policy. One step in this direction is the European Union’s emission trading system (EU ETS). Another is the CO2 tax introduced in Switzerland and Norway. Clearly, though, not all regions of the world have experienced the same level of concern about climate change. Measures such as those being introduced in Europe are not yet spread widely across the globe. The greenhouse effect is a global environmental problem; this makes it important to consider some basic information about global CO2 emissions. Global greenhouse gas emissions (see Fig. 2.2) have remained stable on a per capita basis for the world population. With growth rates at 2.1% in 1971 and 1.2% in 2002–2008 the growth rate of the world population and of emissions have both fallen continuously. In the OECD countries the population grows only at a rate of 0.6%, but the CO2 emissions per head of the population have had a positive growth rate; growth in emissions falls only during economic crises. In Germany, eastern and western parts together, CO2 emissions have fallen since 1979, not only when measured in per capita terms but also in absolute terms.6 16

Metric tons per capita

14 12

Germany

10 8

High income: OECD

6

World

4 2 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fig. 2.2 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) from 1960 to 2005 (Source: World Bank 2009)

6 The reasons for such development are normally discussed in literature addressing the environmental Kuznets curve. This is either panel data analysis or theoretical work. Both approaches are unable to distinguish the difference between Germany and other countries. The major preliminary suspect in regard to Germany is the fall of manufacturing as a share of GDP in the period 1991–1996. The successive numbers are 27.5, 25.9, 23.6, 23.1, 22.6, 22.2. Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States (World Bank 2009). Such a sectoral shift cannot be found in any comparable country.

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2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

In addition to energy saving, an increase in energy production from wind and photovoltaic (besides solar thermal, water power, biomass and perhaps7 CCS coal) is necessary. This will increase fluctuations of energy supply, as wind and sun have a huge variability in the electricity amounts they contribute, depending on weather conditions. The larger the regions under consideration and the better the international electricity network, the smaller are the problems associated with fluctuations, as there is a potential to balance different inputs. However, fluctuations never vanish completely. Therefore, it is critical to examine to what extent storage technologies can achieve an intertemporal shift and how large the necessary excess capacity of other technologies such as gas is to overcome temporary shortages. This implies that storage of value enters the area of electricity provision. So far, there has been relatively little storage capacity available. Pumped storage and batteries have been used to a small extent – see the example of Berlin in Sauer (2009) and Chap. 5 of this book – and hydrogen, which can be produced from the use of excess supplies of wind energy and stored in caverns, is still at an early phase of development (Anderson and Leach 2004).

2.4.2

Theory of Storing Values

2.4.2.1 Storing Values Without Technologies Money and Credit If no technology as a store of value were available, value could be transferred into the future by giving something to somebody else against the promise of giving something else back in return later. This would be a non-monetary or real credit. A special form of such a promise is money in the sense of coins and paper (Samuelson 1958). If money is generally accepted and institutionalised, a credit can be turned into goods not only by getting them from the debtor but rather by getting them from any other person. This way, the creditor is not dependent anymore on the promise of a person to deliver goods later against getting other goods now. An example may help to understand the role of money. Without it, the baker could get a pair of shoes from the shoemaker only against the promise of payment through the delivery of a certain amount of bread on each of the following days until a certain point in time. Or vice versa, the shoemaker could get bread for some time against a promise to deliver a pair of shoes later. If, instead, they

7

The literature is very skeptic in regard to the cost effectiveness of CCS. An exception is Golombek et al. (2009) who estimate that CCS will be competitive at a price of $30/tCO2 when integrated but not in its retrofitting versions. At $90/tCO2, coal without CCS would vanish completely according to their calculations. Praetorius and Schumacher (2009) summarise the literature as giving a range of 30–50 €/tCO2 for making CCS (with IGCC) economically viable. The range for capture is 7.6–68.1 €/tCO2, for transport 6–40 € depending on the distance and for storage 1–6 € depending on the type of place. Alphen et al. (2009) however point out that the Norwegian CO2 tax has gone up 40 €/tCO2 without making CCS competitive so far; it is currently announced to be in place in 2015.

2.4

Economics of Storing Values

33

have money in coins or notes, they can pay each other exactly what they owe and the one receiving the money, say the shoemaker, can buy something else from somebody else with the baker’s money, rather than only getting bread from the baker who buys the shoes. In brief, barter trade and promises are replaced by a form of monetary credit that is accepted by everyone and, in this way, serves as a store of value. Land and Heritage Another way of transferring value into the future is through buying things such as land. Land is tied to nature, which can be preserved in its quality and can be transferred into the future by way of a handover to the next generation. Time for Education Still another possibility of transferring value into the future is through investing time into education and using the acquired skills in later periods. Knowledge can be transferred to later generations even without using technologies such as printing books, or having schools. The advantage of institutionalised schools in transferring knowledge is that the recipient gets not only the knowledge but also a certificate testifying that he has acquired the knowledge. Acquiring land, money and education are ways, therefore, of transferring value into the future without necessarily relying on technologies.

2.4.2.2 Storing Values Using Technologies Buildings and Machine Capital Closely related to land are buildings. Buildings are not only useful because we can live in them now, but they will always be needed in the future and, therefore, are a valuable store of value, which is appreciated particularly in inflationary times. Similarly, buying machines allows production for a long time. Capital in the form of buildings and machines is a common way to store value. Printing and Patents Whereas education is partly a personal and informal transfer of knowledge, the technology of printing can help easing the storage of its value and make it independent of persons whose ability to transfer it may lead to mistakes, gaps and forgetting. Printing makes documentation possible and allows for the written form of patents. Therefore, technological descriptions are made and published. By way of printing, they are dissolved from personal knowledge and can be transferred without change into the future, which will determine their valuation in line with the expected use of the patent. Storing Value Through Transport Technologies: Cement, Electricity A special case of technologies that function as a store of value are those where the production, transport and storing of value take place simultaneously. A case in point

34

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

is cement production during the truck transport. Electricity sometimes is said to not be storable (Brennan 2009). However, this is wrong in the sense that batteries can be loaded (see Anderson and Leach 2004 and Sauer 2009). With current costs, revenues and technical limitations, electricity is not storable in large amounts.

Store of Value for Electricity Indirect forms of storing electricity include the production of hydrogen and pump storage, which is the act of pumping water and storing it in dams at higher levels for use in the form of hydropower at times when electricity production from wind or sun is scarce. It is one of the questions regarding future developments in the electricity sector, whether the costs and revenues will be changed through low spot prices for electricity at times of strong wind and high prices at times of weak wind and sun activity. Salgi et al. (2008, p. 100) state that “. . . electricity prices are highly unlikely to fluctuate enough to allow for the utilisation of the produced hydrogen in stationary applications” and recommend use in the transportation sector. However, their investigation covers only a 2-day demand capacity; our perspective is one of a 12 (between 10 and 20) day capacity requirement at maximum. Moreover, the more critical aspect may be that hydrogen production is perhaps not yet profitable, even if electricity is available at zero cost, because other costs may also be high. However, once gas has to pay for high CO2 emissions, other flexible supplies of electricity, such as compressed air, hydrogen and electricity made from it, may become more competitive and add to pumped storage capacity. This will be especially true when pumped storage capacity is confronted by a lack of sufficient adequate locations. If energy from wind and photovoltaics get a high market share, the supply of electricity can be ensured cheaply without nuclear energy and CCS coal as long as there is sufficient stored electricity to cover periods of low renewable electricity supply8 (Heal 2009a, b). The problem of fluctuations and total inactivity in wind and photovoltaics will differ by region. For the USA, Heal (2009a, b) indicates that when wind is the source of electricity, four times as much capacity is required relative to what is consumed (i.e., for every one unit of wattage consumed four units of capacity are required) because of the fluctuations of the wind. This ratio is quite realistic for Germany as well. For Germany (see Sauer 2009) wind and photovoltaic may produce a supply of zero for about 12 days (in the range of 10–20).9 For Europe, the average value for wind energy fluctuates much less than in Germany. Therefore, we are in need of either:

8 This does not take into account the costs for nuclear risks and problems with CCS. If it is possible for renewables to be more competitive than CCS coal and nuclear energy, these do need not to be taken into account. In less favourable situations though, every aspect and cent may be important. Heal (2009a, b) assumes that gas cannot be used in the base load, although the UK uses 54% of gas, which cannot all be in the demand following load. 9 The other extreme situation is that of shutting down wind energy if the wind blows too strongly. Also, in these situations other sources are required (Sauer 2009).

2.5

Summary and Conclusions

35

A. Investment in transborder transmission, for example, the Super Grid, at the European level to achieve spatial smoothing, which is in accordance with the general idea of integrating regions more strongly, or B. Overcapacity of other generators, such as gas-fired power stations, in order to compensate for lack of supply as currently occurs during situations of peak load demand,10 or C. Storage facilities at the national level (intertemporal smoothing through storage during high electricity production and use during low production periods). For national storage, currently pumped storage and hydrogen inventories are interesting for low-cost smoothing of 12-days supply gaps (see the chapters on these and related technologies). Here a dual use for stabilisation and other purposes should be aimed at in order to make low prices possible. If international networks are improved, as suggested in point A, then storage facilities can also be located abroad.

2.5

Summary and Conclusions

Starting from the basic aims of economic activity of efficient allocation and just distribution, an action rule has been outlined that gives a normative basis for dealing with constraints of and effects on the environment. It is formulated in priorities. The first is to protect the environment from unacceptable damages. The second is to preserve the total value of produced and natural capital. With these restrictions, as a third priority, intertemporal welfare should be maximised. The fourth priority is that just distribution of basics at present should be realised. This fundament is used to characterise indicators that can be applied for the evaluation of strategies for balancing electricity supply and demand with high penetration of fluctuating renewables in the system. Three categories are distinguished for the indicators: protection of the environment, availability of resources, and design of the energy system with respect to society. As noted above, in addition to theoretical considerations, societal norms and priorities must be appreciated. Society must express which damages it considers unacceptable and how far activities should be raised to combat critical effects that may occur due to environmental change caused by human activities. Looking at energy and environmental policies, it is clear that the most prominent example, which is currently seen as most relevant in the area of energy questions, is the anthropogenic influence on climate. From the review carried out above of current developments relating to the German and European electricity and broader energy systems, including present and planned policies and programs, it is clear that the energy system is already changing. A major driving force is the desire to avoid unacceptable states of the environment in the future that could be caused by

10

Gas-fired power stations can also be employed to satisfy base load demand. For example, in the UK gas currently delivers 54% of electricity supply.

36

2 Future Perspectives of Electrical Energy Supply

anthropogenic-induced climate change. There are several key challenges ahead. One is the importance of encouraging the international energy market by strengthening the technical infrastructure, particularly of grids but also storage capacities, for renewable electricity. Second, the competence of Europe in energy questions is rising, but there is still much that needs to be done to strengthen European competencies with regard to a common electricity market. In the absence of a strengthened European voice, it will be necessary to consider what other ways can be pursued to promote a European-wide restructuring of the electricity system. Third, experience with large-scale energy projects, such as wind farms, show that public acceptance, particularly at the local level, has to be won to realise necessary investments into infrastructure. Participatory decision-making processes are thus central to a wider expansion of renewable energy use. The analysis of the economics of storing values reveals three options for storing electricity values. These need to be analysed in cases where the demand and supply in the energy system have to be levelled out. This is likely to occur when there is a high share of electricity produced from wind and solar radiation. The first option is to expand international grid connections, particularly for transborder transmissions. The second is the over-installation of conventional power plants, e.g., natural gas-fired plants, to compensate for lack of supply. The third is to build up energy storage capacities, primarily of electrical energy. Of course, a mixed strategy is also possible.

3

Existing Energy System Studies

The share of renewable energies has been steadily rising and plans are for this expansion to continue into the future (see Chap. 2). The aim of this study is to provide a transdisciplinary analysis of strategies for balancing differences between electricity demand and supply, which can occur as a result of variations in the availability of renewable energy due to the intermittent nature of sources, such as wind and solar radiation. As the share of renewables in the system increases, this could become an increasingly important problem for Germany and Europe. To this aim, this study works with models of potential future energy systems. Usually, future energy scenarios are created that consider currently implemented and planned policy actions to draw pictures of potential future energy systems. The appropriateness of strategies strongly depends on the technologies available for balancing electricity demand and supply as well as the technologies implemented for power production. Thus, the most basic assumptions concern the future technological environment. The development of complete scenarios of the future energy system would be far beyond the scope of this study. Therefore, in a first step, relevant existing studies are scanned for the properties of prospected energy conversion technologies (Sect. 3.1). In a second step, parameters characterising future energy conversion technologies are explicitly composed in order to define a consistent set of assumptions for the technical framework of the study (Sect. 3.2), before the results are summarised and concluded.

3.1

Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions for the Analysis of Strategies

In order to analyse existing studies and their results as a basis for deriving input parameters for the analyses in this study (see Sect. 3.2), first, energy system modelling is discussed from a theoretical perspective and a structure for the characterisation of studies is presented. Second, data requirements for the different parts of the study are also formulated. Finally, existing studies are described and B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_3, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

37

38

3

Existing Energy System Studies

characterised with respect to their general characteristics. This section focuses on the applicability of findings from these studies as potential input data for this study.

3.1.1

Energy System Modelling: A Theoretical Perspective

The modelling of systems requires that a distinction be made between the real system that is to be modelled and the model of the system. A model always represents a theoretical reproduction of the real system and is made with certain purposes of analysis in mind (for theory of modelling, see e.g., Grunwald 1999; Schr€oder et al. 2002, p. 319ff). The process of model formulation always requires in a first step to abstract the essential from the negligible or simplifiable objects and interconnections of the system. Furthermore, these elements of the system have to be described in such a way that the system properties that are to be modelled are accessible to relevant instruments of analysis. Beside the scope of the analysis, the detail of the elements can also be configured differently in the relevant dimensions of, for example, time, space, economic sectors and technical options. Following this description, a model of this kind can be drafted as a network of multidimensional elements, which are interconnected via causal links and have defined system boundaries. The short sketch of the model-building process suggests that it is usually not possible to simply apply a model designed for one purpose to another. Such a transfer application requires detailed analysis of a model’s applicability. As an illustrative example, a model designed for the description of dispersion and chemical transformation of pollutants in a forest area cannot be used to derive an ecological map of species or as a tourist map for hiking. Although some details of one model may be usable and relevant for other purposes, it will not reveal all desired details. Nor in most cases, will it give the required information in such a way that it can be used for decisions about actions that need to be taken. Thus, in the cases of chemical dispersion, ecological maps of species and tourist hiking maps, different ‘models’ of the forest areas are required. Even more complex is the picture if the aim is to consider not only individual, but all relevant functions of a system in order to use the model for policy decisions and taking actions. In this context, the consultation of all models describing the system in relevant ways is important. This kind of multiple criteria decision situation is required for energy systems. Respective indicators for the evaluation of energy systems and technologies with regard to their future viability have already been derived from basic societal aims in Sect. 2.2. They give a framework for the normative evaluation with respect to acceptable future energy systems. The fundamental task of an energy system is to provide energy to the consumer when required. Thus, a basic quality of the energy system is the probability with which energy is available for the consumer when it is needed. This quality represents a main part of energy security. However, the energy should be provided economically efficiently, and the system should be usable over a long time period

3.1

Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions

39

without unacceptable impacts on the environment and resource availability (see also Sect. 2.1). Thus, basic elements that have to be considered in energy system models are, in the first line, technologies for energy supply and the amount of energy consumption, taking into account their different properties and their interconnections to each other. All energy system models include these elements, although they include the data with various levels of detail. The models of objects/ subjects (e.g., power production facilities, consumers) and their interconnections include descriptive as well as normative statements. This is a basic characteristic of scientific modelling and cannot be avoided. In fact, all scientific theories and even statements about everyday incidents include normative parts. However, descriptive statements based on universal and trans-disciplinary knowledge – following the observations of Janich (2001) – are to be distinguished from explicitly set assumptions which reflect only one possible value in a larger area of potential shapes. While the first set of statements is decided upon by using a certain methodology for the analysis, e.g., economic optimisation, the statements of the second type have to be set explicitly for each analysis. An intrinsic aspect of energy system modelling is the focus on future situations. This is the major reason why many assumptions are required, and high uncertainties, as well as ignorance, appear in some areas of the system. The variety of models and model results originates from various interests and foci. McDowall and Eames (2006) investigated and characterised the bouquet of approaches for models of hydrogen economies. The discussion can easily be applied for overall energy system analyses (see also Martinot et al. 2007). They distinguish the categories of descriptive methodologies: forecasts, exploratory scenarios and technical scenarios as well as normative approaches: visions, backcasts/pathways and roadmaps. In forecasts, futures are predicted based on current trends or expert opinion. In exploratory scenarios, underlying drivers of change are investigated, “often drawing upon tacit knowledge and expertise, to build internally consistent storylines describing a number of possible futures” (McDowall and Eames 2006, p. 1238). Technical scenarios concentrate on the exploration of future technical systems, emphasising “the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than explore how different futures might unfold” (ibid.:1238). “Visions are elaborations of a desirable and (more or less) plausible future” (ibid.:1238). They emphasise the benefits rather than pathways. Backcasts and pathways start with a desirable and plausible future, investigating possible pathways to it. Roadmaps start also with a desired future, but describe a sequence of measures designed to reach it. Elements of the other types of methodologies can be used as the basis for the identification of measures. Beside the different approaches to describe possible futures, the characterisation of McDowall and Eames (2006) includes disciplinary aspects of the methodologies used. Main disciplinary contexts and methodologies applied are those of engineering and economic sciences. Taking out the disciplinary aspects, one could distinguish the following relevant approaches for scientific analysis:

40

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Existing Energy System Studies

– Forecasts: deriving one possible future from current knowledge about future developments, – Temporal exploratory scenarios: generating possible futures, starting with setting framework conditions for the main drivers, – Static (comparative) scenarios: analysing scenarios, including different features to a certain point in time or period of time, – Backcasts: analysing the emergence of explicitly defined futures, – Roadmaps: analysing ways to derive at explicitly defined futures. In addition to the type of modelling used to set up temporal connections from the present to the future, studies include temporal resolutions on several levels. The temporal system boundary, the time horizon envisaged, can be chosen differently. The resolution of the temporal phase between present and the future time horizon can also be set at different levels. Temporal resolution within the time period of investigation (e.g., within 1 year) is also an important defining characteristic. The importance of temporal resolutions for the analysis of the energy system is striking because of their influence on energy demand and, especially for renewable energies, also energy supply. These are directly affected by typical social attitudes and the environmental framework conditions such as natural solar and wind cycles. Structures of space, economic market factors and technological options can also vary in models. In each of these dimensions the area of analysis, as well as its resolution, have to be chosen. An adequate characterisation scheme of energy system studies needs to include, beside the key parameters, information about all relevant dimensions of the modelling process. Considering the main model features of energy models discussed above, for the current study the following scheme is derived for the description of energy system studies. Main categories distinguished are basic information showing the circumstances in which the study has been elaborated, model characteristics, and main in- and output data: – Basic information: • study title, year of publication, • institution, • customer, • authors, • aim of the study; – Model characteristics: • general approach, • region and spatial resolution, • period of time and temporal resolution, • technologies and technical resolution, • used models, type of causal interconnections; – In- and output: • individual results, • input data and individual explicitly set assumptions, • model endogenous results and assumptions.

3.1

Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions

3.1.2

41

Basic Approaches in Energy System Analysis Followed in This Study and Data Requirements

The technical core of the strategies to be analysed in this study build technologies applicable for levelling electricity demand and supply. The field of technology options in this context is wide and heterogeneous. From the perspective of energy systems, energy storage and energy distribution technologies can be broadly distinguished. These are to a certain extent competing with each other, because more energy storage capacity and power in the system can reduce the required extensions of the electricity grid, while grid extensions allow more exchange of electricity and, thus, reduce the storage capacity and power required. Figure 3.1 gives an impression of the system in focus. Additional to the technologies required for the transformation and transportation of electricity as well as for storing electricity, intelligent control technologies are needed in the system. These technologies do not reflect a large extra hardware effort for balancing electricity once they are developed. They are expected to be freely programmable and designable so that no principle technical restrictions for realising the control features necessary for implementing optimal strategies arise. The analysis of technologies will concentrate on the technical storage and network aspects without analysing the limits and potentials of required control technologies.

Fig. 3.1 Rough model of a current electricity network

42

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Existing Energy System Studies

Two approaches are followed in the analysis of the future energy system in this study. The first is to start out from the current energy system and to assess what is additionally required to implement a certain scenario for electricity supply and demand relative to a future target year. Thus, the starting point for this part of the analysis is a future supply-and-demand-scenario together with today’s electricity network. First, the demand of electrical balancing energy and power and the amount of needed storage capacity are derived from existing energy scenarios. Second, the potential for demand-side management in households is analysed, including the intelligent control of domestic appliances as well as decentralised power production in small plants and loading and providing electricity to the grid with batteries, e.g., in electric cars. Third, restrictions and requirements for the extension of distribution grids in the case of decentralised options and for a transmission network in the case of an increase of wind power from on- and offshore plants are assessed. This is done on the basis of assumed future electricity production. These different individual analyses give a rough picture of how large the potential contributions could be of various technologies to balancing electricity supply and demand for, at maximum, a daily scale. They also describe which measures are preferable for achieving such a balance. Major technologies considered in this part will be the: – management of typical domestic appliances, – load-management for electric cars, – controllable cogeneration with heat storages, together with: – restrictions and extension costs concerning the distribution network, – restrictions and extension costs concerning the transmission network. the spatial focus is on Germany. Electricity is balanced relative to variations of a few hours at maximum. The analysis is based on scenarios that include information about: – supply and demand of electricity subdivided by technology, – the structure of the current network, and – estimates about the amount of respective decentralised facilities that can be applied for balancing electricity flows in the system. The second approach concentrates on the analysis of requirements for storage facilities on different time scales, from several days and even weeks down to 1 h, taking into account energy sources in the whole of Europe and assuming network extensions in competition for an optimal realisation. The electricity supply of renewable sources is calculated from a time series of hourly values of wind and solar radiation with a high geographical resolution. The model is drawn on a green field so that, in principle, no restrictions for cost-optimisation, despite the availability of renewable sources, are considered. In further model adaptations, restrictions concerning different national regulations and energy policies in the European states could be taken into account. The transmission network is modelled as a highvoltage direct current (HVDC) network so that stability issues and the already existing high-voltage alternating current networks need not be taken into account. Lower voltage levels of the network are assumed to hold the required capacity.

3.1

Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions

43

The main purpose of the model is to explore the required storage capacity and power and with this, respectively, the type of storage capacities needed, either highpower oriented or high-capacity oriented technologies assuming competition to grid extension. In the second part of the analysis a completely new optimal energy system is constructed for a future year, which is able to cope with a high share of electricity supply from renewable energies. The basis for the calculations will be the power capacity for power production from wind and solar radiation in the system together with meteorological data in an hourly resolution to derive the hourly potential of electricity production. It is realised as a simple optimisation model, which intends to cover the following individual technology options: – onshore and offshore wind, – photovoltaics, – short- and long-term storage systems including, beside others, the options of pumped hydro, hydrogen storage in gas fields, and batteries of electric cars and decentralised photovoltaics, – high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines. The focus of the second part is on the evaluation of the potentials of different energy storage systems versus network extension in an energy system with a high share of renewable energy technologies. Different time scales are covered: longterm, seasonal and short-term, with a maximum resolution of 1 h. The model covers the whole of Europe and also parts of northern Africa. As input, the characterisation of individual future technologies is required. This requires numerous assumptions be made. In order to be consistent, these are harmonised with other analyses as far as necessary. The major aim of redesigning the energy system is to develop a system that is both stable and low-carbon. The main factors pressing for this kind of structural change are the environmental externalities of the current structure and resource scarcity, which could negatively impact electricity supply if the system is not restructured. Restructuring toward a renewable-energy dominant electricity system could also provide Germany and Europe with greater energy autonomy. In order to assure the system contains the aspects required by modern economies and lifestyles and, especially, security of supply, additional system design aspects have to be considered (see also Sect. 2.2). In the respective analysis, which is described in Sect. 5.7, individual technologies for balancing supply and demand are analysed with respect to their performance in these areas. The indicators that will be followed for this task have been derived in Sect. 2.2. Technologies considered for the analysis of technologies with respect to their impact on resource use and environment are: – upgrade and extension of electricity networks together with over-installation of wind power and photovoltaics, – pumped hydro, – hydrogen storage, – batteries.

44

3

Existing Energy System Studies

As far as possible, the assumptions of all three parts of the analysis introduced above will be held consistent.

3.1.3

Comparison of Relevant Energy System Analyses According to Their General Characteristics

A large number of studies with varying emphases address the modelling of the future energy system, but not all of them are appropriate to consider here. The studies mentioned below have been chosen as they include scenarios which can be applied to derive input data for a detailed analysis of energy storage and other measures to meet the system requirements in situations with highly volatile feed-in of electricity due to power generation from wind and solar radiation. Relevant features of the described scenarios are the percentage of application, the share in fluctuating renewable energies and the way energy technologies are considered in the models. Renewable energies, however, are not an end unto themselves but serve to attain the politically resolved targets pertaining to ambitious greenhouse gas savings. Therefore, the reduction of carbon dioxide is an important criterion. The selected energy system studies are compared in tabular form, based on the characterisation scheme described in Sect. 3.1.1, providing information about basic aspects, model characteristics as well as data affecting in- and output. Table 3.1 depicts the analysis of six selected energy system studies, two of them mainly prepared by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) (“Leitstudie 2008” and “Leitszenario 2009” respectively) (Nitsch 2008; Nitsch and Wenzel 2009), one by the Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) (K€uster et al. 2007, p. 113ff), and three provided by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) with the collaboration of the consultancies Prognos AG, Institute of Economic Structures Research (GWS) and the economic-research institute Energy Environment Forecast Analysis (EEFA) (Lindenberger et al. 2008; Schlesinger et al. 2007, 2010). The scenarios of these studies will be further considered in the course of this survey. The recent studies by the DLR and Prognos/ EWI/GWS (numbers 2 and 6) seem to be the most interesting in this case, since they are up to date, comprehensive and feature the highest shares of renewable energies. Additionally, the considered time horizon is in Schlesinger et al. (2010) extended to 2050. However, in this extension to 2050 it can be seen that the methodology also changed from using temporal exploratory scenarios to pathway analyses resulting in a roadmap. Scenarios that deal with a distant future (e.g., 2050), until which time large structural changes are anticipated, draw upon pathway analyses that can generate a roadmap but are not very useful for temporal exploration. The data of the energy system development in the studies are quite comparable with respect to the share of regenerative energies and the CO2 reductions from 2020 to 2050. The new scenarios of EWI present much more ambitious data concerning the CO2 targets than the older scenarios for 2007 and 2008. The “Leitstudie 2009” (Nitsch and Wenzel 2009), together with the so-called target scenarios of

“Target scenario” Update of “Leitszenario 2008”, non-regret strategies for the expansion of RE regarding national and European targets

Roadmap Target-setting and path analysis, updated data

BMU

Nitsch

“Target scenario” Path to achieve goal of climate control, depiction of necessary restructuring of the energy supply

Roadmap

Target-setting and path analysis

Customer

Authors

Aim of the study

General approach

Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions (continued)

Database of over 13,000 parameters of Europe’s power plants. PANTA RHEI links data interdependently to give direct and

Comprehensive database of Europe’s power plants with technical-economic parameters and characteristics of new RE: detailed data on potentials and generative costs; other technologies: capacity, building time, lifetime, efficiency, specific

Database REF-TECH: relevant technical and economic parameters of RE-technologies (6–8 variants per type of energy and conversion process) for 2000, 2010, . . ., 2050

Database REF-TECH: relevant technical and economic parameters of RE-technologies (6–8 variants per type of energy and conversion

Considered technologies and technical resolution

Comprehensive database of Europe’s power plants with technical-economic parameters and characteristics of new

2008,2020,2030,..,2050

2005,2010,2015,2020 2005,2010,2020,2030

Germany (Europ. context)

2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2015,..,2050

Germany (Europ. context)

2000,2005,2008,2010, 2015,.., 2030,2040,2050

Germany (Europ. context)

Target-setting and path analysis

Roadmap

“Target scenario” Analysis of options to achieve targets given by the customer

Schlesinger, Hofer, Kemmler, Kirchner, Strassburg, Lindenberger, F€ursch, Nagl, Paulus, Richter, Tr€uby, Lutz, Khorusshum, Lehr, Thobe

BMWi

Prognos AG/EWI/ GWS

6. Energieszenarien f€ur ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung, 2010

2000,2007,2010,2015,.., 2030,2040,2050

Germany (intern. context)

Temporal explor. scenario Economic optimisation, variation of measures

“Political scenario” Effects of different mixes of political measures

Lindenberger, Bartels, Borggrefe, Bothe, Wissen, Hillebrand, Buttermann, Bleul

BDEW with other federations

EWI/EEFA

5. Energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept 2030, 2008

Temporal horizon/ resolution

Germany

Temporal explor. scenario Economic optimisation, variation of measures

“Political scenario” Effects of different mixes of political measures

Schlesinger, Hofer, Rits, Lindenberger, Wissen, Bartels

BMWi

Prognos AG/EWI

4. Energieszenarien f€ur den Energiegipfel 2007, 2007

Germany

Target-setting and economic optimisation

Roadmap

“Target scenario” Analysis of options to achieve 80% greenhouse gas reduction

K€uster, Z€urn, Rath-Nagel, Ellersdorfer, Fahl

BASF AG

IER

3. IER Reference Scenarios, 2007

Region

Nitsch, Wenzel

BMU

DLR/IfnE

DLR

Institution

2. Leitszenario 2009, 2009

1. Leitstudie 2008, 2008

Study title, year of publication

Table 3.1 Comparison of characteristics for relevant studies

Basic information

Model characteristics

3.1 45

Model characteristics

E3 (most ambitious variant): Strong promotion of RE and CHP, high levels of expansion, other enhanced conditions for RE, introduction of electric mobility and H2 in traffic, pull-out from nuclear energy, emissions trading: auctioning PEE (preference for RE): minimum share of RE: 2020: 20%, 2030: 30%, 2040: 40%, 2050: 50% for electricity generation, 2050: 45% of total primary energy supply, pullout from nuclear energy, no CCS, GHG reduction targets (to 1990): 2010: 21%, 2020: 35%, 2030: 50%, 2040: 65%, 2050: 80%

Reference scenario (adherence to politics): no explicit climate protection policies

Structure conforms to Leit2008, identical demographic and economic design parameters additionally consideration of developments in the RE-sector and political decisions until mid-2009

Leit2008 (appliance with policy targets): Extrapolation of promotion of RE and CHP, pull-out from nuclear energy, emissions trading: auctioning

Input data/assumptions

investment costs, operation costs, variable costs (without fuels)

3. IER Reference Scenarios, 2007

TIMES-D German part of TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) developed at IER

2. Leitszenario 2009, 2009

ARES and others (STEP, ARES/KODARES BalanceED) KODARES quantifies the costs by combining the data from ARES with EEG-presettings (rewards, share in costs)

process) for 2000, 2010, . . ., 2050

1. Leitstudie 2008, 2008

Used models, type of causal interconnections

Study title, year of publication

Table 3.1 (continued)

KV (coalitions agreement): Productivity of energy duplicates, extrapolation of promotion of RE, pull-out from nuclear energy, emissions trading: gradual auctioning EE (focus on RE): Strong promotion of RE, learning curves taken from DLR

III (priority environmental protection): Strong promotion of RE and CHP, pull-out from nuclear energy, emissions trading: gradual auctioning

I (adherence to politics): extrapolation of promotion of RE and CHP, pull-out from nuclear energy, emissions trading: free

CEEM, GMES, sectoral macroeconomic structural models

plants incl. learning curves

plants incl. learning curves

CEEM, GMES (optimisation in conversion sector) and sector-specific bottom-up models for demand

5. Energiewirtschaftliches Gesamtkonzept 2030, 2008

4. Energieszenarien f€ur den Energiegipfel 2007, 2007

“Target scenarios” (lifetime extension of nuclear energy): Reduction of GHG: 2020: 40%, 2050: 85%, RE: 2020:
18%, 2050:
50%, extension of nuclear energy: 4/12/ 20/28 years

Reference scenario (adherence to politics): extrapolation of promotion of RE and CHP, pull-out from nuclear energy, rate of RE (gross energy consumption) in 2020: 16

DIME, PANTA RHEI, modular sector-specific bottom-up models

indirect economic effects

6. Energieszenarien f€ur ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung, 2010

3

Input and output

46 Existing Energy System Studies

36/53/79

% CO2-emission reduction relative to 1990

42/60/85

–

Learning curves, parameterisation of technologies

18/29/41

Share of fluctuating RE (% of GPP, otherwise stated)

30/50/81

Share of RE (% of GPP, otherwise stated):

% of FPC: 21/34/64

“Leit2008” “E3”

Scenario

Model endogenous results and assumptions

Individual results (2020/2030/2050)

Learning curves, parameterisation of technologies

38/57/80

21/36/44

34/58/84

“Leitszenario 2009”

41/- /-

17/- /-

30/- /-

“EE”

Time frame/time steps of optimisation, learning curves and parameter of technologies, replacement parameters for technologies

35/50/80 39/- /-

Exact definition of technologies, parameterisation of technologies

35/50/80

% of net power production: 11/12/30 13/- /7/9/14

% of net power production: 16/18/24 19/26/53 24/- /-

“Reference” “PEE” “KV”

“III”

40/50/-

35/49/62

22/31/38

34/45/54

42/63/86

23/35/58

35/50/80

“Reference” “Target”

Time frame/time steps of optimisation, learning curves and parameter of technologies, replacement parameters for technologies PANTA RHEI: highly endogenised (apart from world market variables of the GLODYM-System);

Time frame/time steps of optimisation, learning curves and parameter of technologies, replacement parameters for technologies

25/30/-

% of gross power consumption: 15/21/11/15/-

% of gross power consumption: 25/35/ 20/26/ -

“I”

BMU: Bundesministeriums f€ur Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, BMWi: Bundesministeriums f€ ur Wirtschaft und Technologie, BDEW: Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft, EEG: Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz, RE: renewable energies, CHP: combined heat and power, GPP: gross power production, FPC: final power consumption

Input and output

3.1 Applicability of Existing Future Energy Scenarios as Framework Conditions 47

48

3

Existing Energy System Studies

Schlesinger et al. (2010), show the highest shares of regenerative energies of all scenarios, reaching approximately 58/84% and 50/80% share of renewables of gross power production in the years 2030/2050 respectively. The target scenarios of Schlesinger et al. (2010) depict the most ambitious situation. They reach the highest reductions of CO2 emissions with a certain share of renewable energies. The shares of volatile renewables in 2030 are comparable between the DLR scenario (2009) and the EWI scenario (2010), accounting for 36% and 35% respectively. However, for 2050, Schlesinger et al. (2010) results showed slightly higher shares of fluctuating renewable energies with respect to the gross power production than the “Leitstudie 2009”, namely 58% versus 44%. Generally speaking, the shares of fluctuating renewable energies are rather high and predicted to grow until 2050 in all scenarios. This underlines the importance of compensating strategies. The share of wind and photovoltaics with respect to the installed renewable energies is different in the scenarios of DLR and EWI. The relative value in the “Leitszenario 2009” decreases from 62% in 2030 to 52% in 2050 regarding gross electricity production, whereas in the EWI target scenarios the value rises from 70% to 73%. The scenarios shown here predominantly build the basis for the development of future electricity supply parameters, which serve as input for the subsequent analysis of balancing strategies. Section 3.2 describes how the studies are used to deduce representative scenarios for the future energy system in Germany with diverging emphases of the future fossil power plant structure and the development of renewable energies. The scenarios represent the basic starting point for the analysis of German conditions in Sect. 3.2 and Chap. 4. In the third analysis (Sect. 5.7), the assessment of the future viability of technologies requires data that is at least at the European level, because technology production chains cannot be reduced to the national level. Even end products are not typically produced simply nationally. Unfortunately, available databases in this area are weak. Sufficient life cycle data for future years with a focus on the energy sector in Europe are only available from one source, this being the results of the European integrated project, “New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability” (NEEDS). The project addresses new methodological developments in the area of external cost estimations, energy economic modelling and life cycle analysis of energy systems for 2025 and 2050. In NEEDS, three future electricity generation scenarios have been described: a “very optimistic”, a “pessimistic” and a “realistic-optimistic” scenario.1 The very optimistic mix assumes an extensive integration of renewable energies in Europe with a share of 80% (see Fig. 3.2). It is based on an ambitious global scenario that

1 “Very optimistic”, as used here, exactly corresponds to the selection “electricity mix UCTE, very optimistic (VO), enhanced renewables (Renew.), 2050”, “realistic-optimistic” to “electricity mix UCTE, realistic-optimistic (RO), 440 ppm, 2050” and “pessimistic” to “electricity mix UCTE, pessimistic (PE), business as usual (BAU), 2050”, correspondingly to ESU, IFEU (2008, p. 49ff).

3.2

The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters

49

100%

Wave energy

90%

CSP

80%

Photovoltaics

70%

Wind Offshore DK Wind

60%

Hydropower

50%

Biomass

40%

Nuclear

30%

Natural Gas

20%

Oil

10%

Lignite Hardcoal

0%

2025

2050

"pessimistic"

2025

2050

2025

2050

"realistic optimistic" "very optimistic"

Fig. 3.2 Share of the different energy resources in terms of produced electricity assumed in the different scenarios in the NEEDS project (ESU and IFEU 2008)

was designed by Krewitt et al. (2007) to keep Europe within the target of a 2 C global average temperature increase over pre-industrial levels. As the aim here is to analyse a scenario with high penetration of renewable energies in the electricity system, the NEEDS “very optimistic” electricity mix is taken for the analysis. The scenario is comparable with the main scenario in the “Leitstudie” and “Leitszenario” respectively which have been generated by the same group.

3.2

The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters as Inputs for the Analysis of Balancing Strategies

In this chapter, the expected future development of generation capacities with fluctuating feed-in as well as the development of the conventional power station park for Germany are estimated. As a basis, this involves evaluating the studies on future electrical energy systems that have already been compared above and comparing their core statements. Two different and representative scenarios are created from the determined data, on the basis of which problems for the total electrical power supply system can be derived. The future scenarios derived are based on the established public studies discussed in Sect. 3.1, which are further described in the following. Both assumed political framework conditions (promotion of renewable energy sources, withdrawal from nuclear energy) and assumed economic framework conditions (fuel prices) are crucial influential factors in the

50

3

Existing Energy System Studies

development of the conventional or renewable power station park in the individual scenarios. The present study looks at two scenarios with a political focus, which place different emphases in their characteristics regarding the future development of the power supply. Special attention is paid to the future fossil power station structure and the development of renewable energy sources (RES) in Germany. The scenarios to be examined for energy development in Germany are essentially based on the studies already listed in Table 3.1: – Energy scenarios for the energy summit 2007 (Schlesinger et al. 2007). – Overall economic energy policy concept 2030 (Lindenberger et al. 2008). – Further development of the renewable energy expansion strategy (pilot study 2008) (Nitsch 2008). – Long-term scenarios and strategies for the expansion of renewable energy sources in Germany (lead scenario 2009) (Nitsch and Wenzel 2009). – Energy system development in Germany, Europe, and worldwide – a comprehensive study analysis, 2007 (K€ uster et al. 2007). To determine the installed power of the conventional power stations for the future scenarios, additions and shutdowns are carried out for the different types of power station, based on the present-day database of power stations in Germany (approximately 370 installed power stations), in accordance with the available studies. In addition to the information about the installed power of the individual power stations, the following criteria are also considered: – Type of fuel, – Year of construction and/or efficiency, – Location/nodal point. To analyse future situations with high requirements for energy balancing, the following analysis concentrates on the variants with high penetration of renewable energies. Two methodological approaches are used: Roadmapping and temporal exploratory scenarios. The “lead scenario 2009” is a roadmap scenario based on pathway analysis for reaching a certain target. Scenario “III” of Lindenberger et al. (2008) is below named the “political renewable energy sources (RES) scenario”. The political RES scenario assumes an intensified funding of renewable energy sources and applies an economical optimisation process. The considered period of the study and, thus, the optimisation, goes to 2030. It does not consider strong structural changes in the energy supply. Rather, it focuses on an economic optimisation of developments that could be expected if certain political measures are implemented. It does not represent a complete optimisation, because the temporal period analysed is limited to 20 years and induced socio-economic effects as well as environmental externalities, including potentially later occurring impacts from climate change, are not included. Thus, although the study concentrates on economic optimisation, it does not adequately cover the requirements of maximising intertemporal welfare (priority 3 of the operative action rule discussed in Sect. 2.1.2) and furthermore does not address all other priorities derived from the economic aims described in Sect. 2.1 – “Protection from unacceptable damage through compliance with critical limits of load” (priority 1), “Preservation of the total

3.2

The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters

51

value of produced and natural capital” (priority 2) and “Just distribution of basics at present” (priority 4). The lead scenario 2009 does not only cover a different time period (up to 2050 as opposed to 2030 for the political RES scenario), but also is based on different assumptions. The lead scenario is based on a “back propagation” or “back tracking” approach and can, therefore, be seen as a roadmap to reach the political predefined CO2 reduction target for 2050. Going backwards from 2050, necessary actions and shares of renewable energy use are determined in such a way that by 2050 emission reductions will theoretically be reached. Economic conditions play only a minor role in the scenario. The lead scenario sets the first priority on meeting targets in order to protect the society from inacceptable damages without carrying out a detailed economic optimisation. It thus concentrates on meeting priority 1 of the operative action rule derived in Sect. 2.1 by neglecting the other priorities. It draws a roadmap for realising a system with which it will prospectively be possible to meet the German CO2 targets. The scenarios examined here always assume a “low price variant” for fossil fuels. They assume that there is a low price path for oil and gas and that coal prices stay the same. This assumption implies that coal-fired power stations will decrease in principle and oil and gas power stations will increase in number. There is an explicit analysis of this in Sect. 3.2.3. Because of the very long time periods covered, the accuracy of the scenarios cannot be assured. The aim with using such scenarios is to get ideas about what could be typical future developments when the electricity system is restructured to include high renewable electricity inputs and where balancing needs are large. A short description of the assumptions in the two scenarios follows.

3.2.1

Assumptions in the Political Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Scenario: Intensified Funding

In the case of the political RES scenario, environmental protection and the withdrawal from nuclear energy are prioritised. It is assumed that the renewable energy law is pushed by higher funding rates and advanced emission reduction goals are reached. It is further assumed that the ratio of combined heat and power (CHP) to the electricity generation will double by 2030. The intensified funding of the RES leads to somewhat less addition or the delayed addition of coal and gas-fired power stations.

3.2.2

Assumptions According to the Lead Scenario 2009

The lead scenario 2009 is intended to clarify the fluctuation range of the assumptions based on different studies and clients. In the study carried out by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) on behalf of the German Federal Environment Ministry (BMU), the renewable energy sources still have a much higher proportion

52

3

Existing Energy System Studies

than in the RES variant. The potentials for consumption-side efficiency increase are also estimated much more optimistically here. Moreover, the period considered in the study runs until 2050, meaning that a long-term forecast is made for 2030 and beyond on this basis. This is referred to here as 2040þ to make it clear that not a specific point in time is concerned, but a possible situation in 2040, 2050 or even as late as 2060.

3.2.3

Effects on the Conventional Power Station Park

The development of conventional power station parks is affected considerably by the political and economic framework conditions assumed in the individual scenarios. Due to the ever more strongly increasing and fluctuating (i.e., not entirely predictable) feed-in from renewable energy sources, preferentially from wind and photovoltaics (PV) in the political RES scenario and the lead scenario, the power supply can be expected to change constantly. The intensified funding of renewable energy sources leads to a decrease in need for conventional power stations, since these can be partially replaced with renewable energy sources. The assumptions for fuel and CO2 prices are of high importance, particularly when deciding between building new hard coal-fired stations and gas and steam power stations (GS power station), which are both used in the medium-load range. If a low gas or oil price is established while at the same time the price of CO2 is high, the economic efficiency for GS power stations increases compared to hard coal-fired power stations. The aim of this study is to work out the future annual curve of the share of load which can be covered by the feed-in from conventional power stations and by the feed-in from renewable energy sources in the time horizon until 2040þ in the two scenarios. A future fuel price path is also defined. The resulting data serve as a basis for looking at the balancing options, such as energy storages and the load management options, in more detail in the course of this study.

3.2.3.1 Renewable Energy Sources The assumed development of the annual electricity generation from renewable energy sources for the selected scenarios is shown in Fig. 3.3. The amount of annual electricity generation is presented for 2020, 2030 and 2040þ, compared to actual values for 2008. It is evident that the generation of renewable energy sources in the lead scenario is clearly higher than for the political RES scenario variant. Both the photovoltaic proportion and the offshore wind production are estimated much more optimistically than in the other scenarios. Furthermore, the import of electricity from renewable energies is only considered for the lead scenario. Solar heat from North Africa (i.e., “DESERTEC”) and wind energy from neighbouring countries are included. For the rest of the study it is assumed that imported power from renewable sources in general does not provide controllable base power. Maybe solar thermal installations, as planned by DESERTEC, with thermal storage facilities could in future provide controllable power so that demand and supply

3.2

The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters

53

Annual electricity generation [TWh]

600

500 EE import

400

Photovoltaics Wind offshore

300

Wind onshore Geothermics

200

Biomass Water

100

Load

0 actual values 2008

political RES scenario

lead political RES scenario scenario

2020

lead scenario

2030

lead scenario 2040+

Fig. 3.3 Scenarios of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and total consumption forecast (load)

can be balanced. However, this cannot be expected from European wind or solar power (see Chap. 3). Assumptions regarding the development of electrical loads are also shown in Fig. 3.3. The values assumed in the political RES scenario are much higher than those in the lead scenario. Based on 2008, the electrical load for the lead scenario will go down by 2020 by 11%, by 2030 by 15% and by 3% in the reference year in 2040þ despite there being new consumers for electric vehicles. An assumption of 20 million electric vehicles with a resulting energy requirement of approximately 30 TW h in 2040þ is made.2 It is further assumed that city vehicles will be either fully electric or hybrid and use electricity only part time for average daily distances but not for long-range drives. In the scenario, it is supposed that these vehicles use an amount of electricity necessary to travel 8,000 km/year.

3.2.3.2 Fuel Prices Typical fuel price developments are needed to evaluate electricity market behaviour and the value of balancing mechanisms. The values should be plausible, but the precision does not need to be very high for the qualitative assessment. The development of the conventional power station park is considerably affected not only by the renewable energy sources, but also by the fuel price. Figure 3.4 shows

2

Only short tracks are accounted for, long tracks are assumed to be driven with hybrid technology.

54

3

50

Existing Energy System Studies

Fuel oil

Price [ /MWh]

40 DLR Lead 30

EWI REF EWI OIL

20

IER 10

average value

0 2000 25

2010

2020

2030

Natural gas

Price [ /MWh]

20 DLR Lead 15

EWI REF EWI OIL

10

IER 5

average value

0 2000 10

2010

2020

2030

Hard coal

Price [ /MWh]

8 DLR Lead 6

EWI REF EWI OIL

4

IER 2

average value

0 2000

2010

2020

2030

Fig. 3.4 Comparison of fuel price paths (K€ uster et al. 2007, own representation)

the price formations to be expected for the coming years. The three most important raw materials (fuel oil, natural gas and hard coal) are used as references. The fuel price paths considered are based on further scenarios besides the lead scenario taken from K€ uster et al. (2007). A list of the applied scenarios can be seen in Fig. 3.4. The calculations in this study are based on the average values of the respective prices in the scenarios, shown by a dashed line. The middle, inflationadjusted growth rate from 2010 to 2030 amounts to 1.1–1.2%/annum for fuel oil

3.2

The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters

Table 3.2 Development of CO2 certificate prices CO2 prices 2020 [€/tCO2] Overall Economic Energy Between 19 and 37 Policy Concept 2030 FEM pilot study 2008 Between 30 and 39

55

CO2 prices 2030 [€/tCO2] Between 27 and 46

CO2 prices 2050 [€/tCO2] 

Between 35 and 50

Between 45 and 70

and natural gas and 0.46%/annum for hard coal. The price path for nuclear fuel grade uranium as well as for brown coal is assumed to be constant. This can be explained by the fact that the variable generation costs based on uranium are in this case very low and, therefore, the price sensitivity can be neglected. There is no market for brown coal since the extracted coal is only used locally for energy generation. The figure also shows that some of the assumptions of the lead scenario, the DLR pilot lead study, are different regarding price paths. The assumptions for the development of the CO2 certificate prices also have strong fluctuations. Table 3.2 lists the prices for the purpose of clarification. Different price paths are assumed in the studies. The Federal Environment Agency (FEM) lead scenario 2009 refers to the underlying CO2 prices of the FEM pilot study 2008. In this study, a price of 32 €/tCO2 for 2030 and 45 €/tCO2 for 2040þ (Nitsch 2008) is assumed in all variants.

3.2.3.3 Resulting Power Station Parks In Fig. 3.5, power station parks are represented based on the outcomes of the two future scenarios. The results are influenced by the factors described in the previous sections (i.e., the development of renewable energy sources and fuel price developments). Figure 3.5 represents conventional power stations (e.g., oil, gas turbine) with their corresponding installed power from 2008 to 2040þ. The fact that the installed power of the power stations is lower in the lead scenario than in the political RES scenario can be seen clearly. This is justified by the even higher feed-in from renewable energy sources than is already the case in the political RES scenario. In the political RES scenario, base-load power stations, such as nuclear power, brown coal and hard coal, will still be around in 2030. For this reason, the current operating principles (e.g., dispatching, reserve power provision) will not change dramatically. For the period 2040þ it is expected that the installed power of conventional power stations will go down considerably as renewable feed-in continues to rise and old power stations at the end of their lifespan will not be replaced. The forecast shows that there will then only be a small number of hard coal-fired power stations. Gas and GS power stations will then be increasingly used, as well as a small number of gas turbine (GT) power stations. Some of the installed power of these power stations can then only be used as a long-term reserve, although not as a rotating reserve, for the varying regenerative feed-in (primary

56

3

Existing Energy System Studies

120,000

Installed power [MW]

100,000

80,000 Oil 60,000

Gas turbine

40,000

Hard coal

Gas and gas and steam

Brown Coal 20,000

Nuclear power

0 political lead political lead lead RES scenario RES scenario scenario scenario scenario 2008

2020

2030

2040+

Fig. 3.5 Scenarios of power station expansion

reserve). The extent to which this affects the residual load, the difference between the actual load and the feed-in from renewable energy sources, is discussed in Chap. 3. It will be evaluated whether the residual load can be covered at all times of the day across the different seasons, and whether balancing power is needed, and if so, how much. If more balancing power is needed, this would require further peak power stations or alternative balancing technologies, which are the focus of this study. The represented development paths of the generation structure in Germany are taken as a basis for all further considerations in this study.

3.2.4

Evaluation of Development Paths

The development paths of the various scenarios looked at here differ. The lead scenario does not only set optimistic goals regarding consumption-side efficiency increases, but also in terms of the expansion of renewable energy sources. The consequence is a strongly reduced conventional power station park, with only a small number of base-loadable power stations. The installed power is considerably smaller for the lead scenario in the years looked at than in the political RES scenario. In order to avoid possible gaps in balancing energy in the peak load coverage, measures must therefore be taken. Apart from the addition of peak load power stations, balancing options can also take the form of storage technologies, option load management or the securing of renewable energy imports from abroad.

3.2

The Derivation of Future Electricity Supply Parameters

57

The requirement and potential of these technologies are determined in the course of the study (see Chap. 5). It should be pointed out that these technologies can always be seen as being in competition with the addition of conventional peak load power stations, e.g., gas turbines. The evaluation of alternative technologies must consider both economic factors (i.e., cost comparisons with peak load power stations) as well as their impact on CO2 reductions targets. The load developments in the scenarios lead to different evaluations in terms of CO2 emissions. In the lead scenarios, the consumption-side efficiency potentials (saving possibilities) were assumed to be too optimistic from the authors’ point of view. What initially appears to be profit, is at least compensated for again by the increase in comfort, e.g., air-conditioning systems and increasing information and communications technology (ICT) applications as well as new loads, such as heat pumps or electric vehicles, following unpublished studies. Developments beyond 2020 are afflicted with great uncertainties, meaning that all considerations based on these scenarios should be regarded simply as estimations. Despite the potential inaccuracy of the scenarios, they can be used to discuss the fundamental problems that can be expected in a restructured electrical power supply system. The scale of the requirements for balancing power and the technologies needed can be estimated and evaluated. It is recommended to regularly update the scenarios and developments and to pursue the real power station development. This will be of particular importance because, with Germany’s planned phase-out of nuclear energy, if the addition of new power stations is too small or if there is a delay in the development of renewable energy sources, then there is a risk of a generation gap for Germany. The government may need to take steps to ensure that a sufficient number of renewable energy projects are initiated. It may also need to address problems related to long approval times for power stations and industrial plants making use of renewable energy sources (e.g., offshore wind parks) and investment risks. In sum: A. The political framework conditions (promotion of renewable energy sources, withdrawal from nuclear energy) and the economic framework conditions (fuel prices and market design) are crucial drivers in the development of power station parks. B. Despite certain unavoidable inaccuracies, the scenarios form a good basis for making fundamental analyses concerning energy balancing requirements and projected developments of the total electrical power supply system in the long run. C. The lead scenario 2009 assumes extremely ambitious goals in the development of renewable energy sources and the consumption-side efficiency increases. Until 2030, there will probably be a sufficient number of conventional power stations. However, the share of power plants relying on fluctuating renewable energy sources will strongly increase and, thus, the development of the real generation park must be the subject of continuous attention in order to avoid a gap in coverage. In the scenario 2040þ, only limited installed power from conventional power stations is available. In order to avoid possible gaps in

58

3

Existing Energy System Studies

coverage, additional measures must be taken, such as energy storage, peak load control or the securing of renewable energy imports. These are analysed in the course of this study. D. The scenarios considered only reflect the situation in Germany. From the European perspective, it is assumed that all states will follow individual development paths, but that the share of renewable energy use will increase drastically. Germany can be taken as a model scenario that other ambitious European states may follow. Balancing the fluctuation of electricity supply from renewables and demand can be performed either within the country itself (peak load power stations, load management, storage facilities) or in interaction with neighbouring countries or even the entire European power system (e.g., balancing generation between renewables in different countries, storage in remote areas). In the latter case, a substantial network extension has to be considered from both technical and economical perspectives. Alternatives for running a stable system are considered for the European system, even if the scenarios are restricted to Germany in the first instance. In a further step, a totally new scenario for the entirety of Europe based on a green field approach will be added to estimate overall balancing or storage and transmission needs in Europe (see Sect. 4.2).

3.3

Summary and Conclusions

As sovereignty concerns continue to exert a strong influence on the energy policies of individual European states, for the foreseeable future, energy policy decisions will continue to be determined primarily by national activities. Still, these decisions will have to be made within the political framework of the European Union, which is slowly gaining greater competencies on energy matters. The European energy system will be generated primarily by national policies, but with coordination facilitated by the European Union and with some directives and regulations limiting the scope of individual national actions. In order to facilitate the design of appropriate national policies for low-carbon and renewable energy-dependent electricity structures, scientific scenarios are developed. The analysis of published scenarios for Germany as a country that strongly promotes the use of renewable energies shows that diverse approaches are used. Temporal exploratory scenario building is applied with energy economic models for the analysis of the next 10–20 years (up to 2020–2030). Modelling of further developments in the direction of a viable renewables-based electricity system beyond 2030 (up to 2050) usually applies a predefined targeted system and shows potential pathways for realising the envisaged system. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the framework conditions that have to be assumed for the economic modelling are uncertain and radical changes could occur. This is especially true for any predictions extending beyond about 2030. However, the analysis also showed that only a small number of institutions provide scenarios and the assumptions are usually not consistent.

3.3

Summary and Conclusions

59

In order to make the analyses more usable for policy decisions, it would be useful if the most influencing assumptions were identified and sensitivity analyses were carried out, e.g., analysing the influence of applying different assumptions for cost reductions with technological developments, i.e., learning curves, on the results. For the current study, framework conditions concerning the electricity supply are taken from two scenarios with a high share of renewables in the system, the lead scenario 2009 used to derive a roadmap in Nitsch and Wenzel (2009) and a political scenario with ambitious environmental policy (scenario “III” from Lindenberger et al. 2008). The two scenarios form a good basis for the analysis concerning the balancing energy requirement with a high share of renewable energies in the system in 2030 and a future year not further specified and called 2040þ. In terms of the power generation portfolio it can be seen that at least following the scenarios of the “Leitstudie”, in 2040þ additional measures have to be taken to support the power system. These additional measures could be the development of energy storage capacity, peak load control or the securing of renewable energy imports. These issues are part of the main focus of this study.

.

4

Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

One important estimate to consider when trying to determine the most appropriate policy options is in which cases, and to what extent, a demand for balancing electrical energy and power exists which cannot be covered by the installed energy conversion systems themselves. Two approaches are followed in this analysis. The first builds on existing and published scenarios for the German electricity sector in the European context, namely those which have been identified in Chap. 3 as being applicable for the analysis, the lead scenario and the political RES scenario (Sect. 4.1). The second approach tries to build up an optimal system of conversion from renewable energies, energy storage systems and transboundary transport of electricity. It does this by developing and using a rough optimisation model (Sect. 4.2).

4.1

Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment Based on Scenarios for Germany

The scenarios that were presented in Chap. 3 (political RES and lead scenario) are investigated in Sects. 4.1.1 and 4.1.2, first in terms of their residual load structure and their temporal load curve. These sections examine the extent to which the residual load is covered by the conventional power stations available in each of the scenarios. Special analytical attention is given to the lead scenario, since gaps in coverage emerge due to the increase of fluctuating feed-in and the reduced number of conventional power stations. In order to solve this problem, the analysis examines how much balancing power and balancing energy is needed in the course of the year to cover the currently assessed residual load. Balancing power and balancing energy are necessary to establish the balance between supply and demand, which involves bringing the varying feed-ins from wind and photovoltaics in line with the load. Furthermore, the analysis indicates how many storage or peak load power stations are necessary to achieve the balance, even in situations of low wind input. B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_4, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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4 Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

It should be noted that the discussion is conducted from a purely German point of view. The alternative options of peak load power stations, load management for lowering the residual load, energy storage possibilities as well as the secured import of energy from abroad are to be considered for load coverage. For the time being, the location of the energy storage systems is not crucial for the provision of power, as storage in Germany is equivalent to storage abroad if the source is connected via a sufficient line capacity. The import of secured energy from abroad is problematic. This is because on a calm wind day in Germany, excess renewable energy may not be available from European neighbouring countries either, due to weather conditions. Only special systems, such as the Desertec project, using concentrated solar thermal power would have the potential via thermal storage capacity to provide secured energy.

4.1.1

Assessing the Demand of Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

This section deals with extreme cases. It examines how much energy must be stored, and at which amount of power or, alternatively, must be provided by rarely operating peak power stations to ensure the security of supply.

4.1.1.1 Effect on the Residual Load and the Available Power Station Power The aim of this subsection is to determine gaps in coverage that arise, i.e., the number of cases where the residual load cannot be covered at any time by the available conventional power stations within the defined scenarios. Based on the gaps in coverage found, balancing options such as energy storage units, peak load power stations or the option of load management are evaluated by this study. The proportion of the feed-in from renewable energy sources as well as the energy quantities of the actual electrical load have already been discussed in Chap. 3 for the two scenarios and serve here as a basis for the residual load calculations (consumption load less feed-in from renewable energy sources). Using scaled profiles (load and feed-in profiles) the annual energy quantities are converted into hourly time-variation curves. The profiles contain so-called “type days” – individual extreme cases are therefore not considered. Each representative year consists of 3 days (Saturday, Sunday and one working day) of each season (winter, spring, summer and autumn). Twelve typical average days within a year result from this. The consideration of 12 typical days means there are 288 hourly values for the examination of the residual load. When dimensioning the necessary storage capacity (see Sect. 4.1.1.3), the starting basis consisting of selected extreme days or extreme periods may not be disregarded so as to ensure that the system maintains its secure supply of energy in such situations. Possible gaps in coverage would thus be ruled out from the beginning. The absolute extreme values are therefore considered separately.

4.1

Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment

63

The volatile and prior-ranking feed-in from renewable energy plants leads to a less favourable residual and stochastic load structure, which is to be balanced out by the conventional power station park (EEG 2008). Because of this, the conventional power stations have an increasingly volatile operation, which is shown by increased startup processes and partial load operations. The ability to plan the power station dispatch is decreased by the varying feed-in (Lindenberger et al. 2008). In order to identify possible gaps in coverage within the two future scenarios, the minimum and maximum hourly average values of the residual load must be related to the minimum available power station power (without pump storage stations (PSS)). Figure 4.1 illustrates this situation. The minimum available power is the secured power station power. This means that the following factors are subtracted from the installed power: – Control power to be kept available, expected values for revisions – Outages and cooling water availabilities. It can be seen that the maximum and minimum residual load in the lead scenario assumes much lower values than in the political RES scenario, due to the high feedin from renewable energy sources. The fluctuation range is not significantly higher, however. For the lead scenario for 2030 and 2040þ, it is worth noting that the available power station power can fall below the residual load and the requirement can therefore not be covered by secured generation plants within Germany alone. Due to the already mentioned fact that the profiles used do not represent extreme situations, it is quite possible in reality for the residual load to have to be set higher in some extreme situations than is the case here. If, in addition, revisions or even power station failures become frequent on the power station side and thus the secured power is far less than the power assumed here, this can lead to a considerable gap in coverage (power deficit) or to an extreme dependence on electricity 80

Power [GW]

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political RES scenario

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Minimum available power station power (without PSS)

Fig. 4.1 Fluctuation range of residual load and the power station power available in each case

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4 Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

imports. If the electricity import is to be regarded as unreliable due to power shortages in the neighbouring countries at the same time, for example, storage or peak load power stations or the option of load management are required to provide the necessary balancing power. In Sect. 4.1.1.2, possible extreme situations due to wind calms lasting several days are analysed in more detail. In addition to the temporary power deficit specified, a negative residual load arises in the lead scenario in certain hours where the feed-in of renewable energy is significantly high. In 2030, the value is up to 13.7 GW and, in 2040þ, even 24.0 GW. A negative residual load has the consequence that Germany’s load is too small during certain hours and that a surplus from renewable energy sources is therefore available. The residual load is negative in 54 out of 288 simulated hours in the lead scenario in 2030. This corresponds to approximately 19% of the time considered. A power balance is achieved by limiting the feed-in from renewable energy sources at all these times. The residual load is thus limited to a minimum value of 0. The consequence of this restriction is that approximately 1.4% (4 TWh) of the total feed-in from renewable energy sources cannot be used in Germany, although it can possibly be exported depending on the overall European scenario. In the scenario 2040þ, a negative residual load results approximately 39% of the total time. Approximately 4.7% (21 TWh) of the feed-in could not be used through limiting the negative residual load factors to 0. Below, the two scenarios are examined regarding the composition of their available power station power. Based on the respective conventional power station park of the scenarios, the available power is represented and shown relative to the total network load or the residual load (see Fig. 4.2). The range between the maximum value of the residual load and the network load illustrates the mixing effects between the curve of the actual load and the feed-in from renewable energy sources. The maximum network load is reduced by the feed-in from plants using renewable sources. The maximum and minimum value of the residual load is therefore to a considerable extent determined by the feed-in from renewable energy sources. The following discusses which renewable energy sources are to be regarded as secured. Biomass and hydroelectric power plants in particular are plants that can be controlled and planned. The residual load is lowered considerably due to the high availability and thus secured power of these plants. This is different in the case of wind power and PV plants. Electricity is generated from the current respective power available (wind velocity, radiation intensity), which fluctuates according to natural variations and, thus, usually does not meet changing demand (B€ unger et al. 2009). At unfavourable times where demand rises considerably (peak load), it is therefore possible that the wind and PV feed-in tends towards zero and that the crucial point of the residual load can therefore not be covered. In Nabe (2006), the secured power of wind power plants is given as values between 3% and 20% of the installed wind power. This quantification of the wind power effects is critical. Due to the uncertainty, the determined values are to be interpreted with caution. In order to better examine the usefulness of storage

4.1

Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment

65

100 Power [GW] Oil Gas turbine

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-20 -40 Installed power

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20 4 0 +

Fig. 4.2 Composition of available power station power

possibilities, a worst-case estimation is made on the basis of real wind calms (see Sect. 4.1.1.2). The wind calms are analysed and discussed in terms of their effects. Figure 4.2 shows that problematic gaps in coverage arise even in the lead scenario without extreme situations being taken into account. A calculated secured power of 7 GW in 2030 and of approximately 18 GW in 2040þ is lacking. This level must be covered by additional measures. No problems arise in the political RES scenario. The residual load is covered by the secured power station power. Therefore, this scenario is given no further attention. In summary, it is shown that the residual load cannot be covered in the lead scenario at all times in 2030 and 2040þ by the power available from the secured power station. Stored electricity or additional peak load power stations (see Sect. 4.1.1.3) are necessary in order to establish a balance between generation and consumption. Moreover, the secured power that is lacking could also be provided by a secured import of fuels or electricity from renewable sources. The consideration and interpretation of this import is a crucial factor influencing developments. It is therefore discussed in Sect. 4.1.1.3. Alternatively, the peak of the residual load can also be reduced by load management (see Sect. 5.3). The residual load is negative in several of the 288 simulated hours of the year. Situations therefore result where the feed-in from renewable energy sources exceeds the load. Without storage systems, the power available free of charge from renewable energy sources would have to be restricted.

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4 Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

Both the power deficiency (2030: 7 GW and 2040þ: 18 GW) and the power surplus (2030: 13.7 GW and 2040þ: 24 GW) in the lead scenario offer potential for using electrical storage facilities.

4.1.1.2 Characteristics of Possible Wind Calms Lasting Several Days Below, the lead scenario will only be dealt with in terms of its characteristics. This scenario is predicated on an integration of additional storage capacities or peak load power stations as well as the option of load management into the existing power station park in order to cover residual load peaks. The major residual load peaks causing gaps in production are caused by wind calms of up to several days, which are analysed in this section. To get an idea of the size of the production gap, the power and energy are investigated by assuming that they are covered exemplarily by an energy storage system. In general, the function of a storage facility is equivalent to a technical system that can provide positive and/or negative control power to the grid. Therefore, all technologies beyond the classical storage systems that take up electrical energy and supply electrical energy are considered here as synonyms of classical storage. In order to model the lead scenario 2030 and 2040þ in relation to the employment of storage units, it is first necessary to determine the required dimension of additional energy storage options (power and storage capacity). In this subsection, the characteristics of possible wind calms lasting several days are analysed in terms of storage dimensioning on the basis of synthetic offshore wind feed-in data. The modelled wind feed-in is based on historical data on the wind velocities in the North Sea area. The regional wind velocities are converted into feed-ins using wind park models. Real smoothening effects are taken into account by the use of several measuring points. The sample size of the calculations covers 43,800 hourly values altogether from 2002 to 2006. The procedure is described in detail in Brodersen (2008). The maximum length (consecutive hours) of wind calms resulting in a wind feedin below a defined boundary is of relevance for the storage dimensioning. Figure 4.3 shows the annual frequency of calms with minimum durations between 12 and 72 h and limit powers from 1% to 20% of the installed power. Hence, 12-h calms with a feed-in below 1% of the installed power occur around five times a year within the offshore range. If the boundary looked at is 10%, 72-h calms occur about once a year. Further analysis must therefore answer the question of whether a relatively short calm with very low feed-ins or a longer one with somewhat higher feed-ins represents a more critical case for the storage dimensioning. The case relevant for the storage dimensioning is the maximum duration of wind calms observed. The model data shows that, with a boundary of 1% of the installed power, the maximum duration of such a calm is 31 h, whereas a 20% calm can last up to 218 h. 4.1.1.3 Dimensioning the Necessary Storage Capacity In order to dimension the theoretical maximum of necessary storage capacity during the wind calms as a synonym for controllable power for a certain time

4.1

Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment

67

70

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60 50 1% 40

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10 0 12h

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Fig. 4.3 Annual frequency of long-lasting wind calms in the offshore range (Data source: GKSS, Ecofys; graph by author)

interval, an extreme case is constructed for the type days described in Sect. 4.1.1.1, unlike with the use of the feed-in profiles. The considerations are carried out for the lead scenario in 2030 and 2040þ, where the use of the profiles has already identified a possible gap in generation. The hourly course of the network load in the period around the annual maximum load forms the basis of the considerations. For this purpose, the load curve from 2007 is scaled to 2030 and 2040þ using the annual energy quantity, that is, with consumption by electric vehicles being taken into account. This load is covered by the conventional power stations available in this period (without pump storage stations), as well as the feed-in from use of renewable energy sources and combined heat and power plants. Water, biomass and geothermal facilities are set as having constant feed-in, whereas the PV feed-in is set to zero, since no feed-in is to be expected during the winter maximum load at 18:00 h. The wind feed-in corresponds to the percentage limit value of the calm, whereby this value is also transferred to the onshore feed-in. The CHP feed-in is set according to the heat requirement profile in winter. With respect to the lacking amount of power, the case of 1% calm, irrespective of its length, is relevant. With the assumptions mentioned, a maximum power deficit of 18 GW results for the lead scenario for 2030 and of 35 GW for 2040þ. Since approximately 7.5 GW power (including 1.1 GW in the Vianden power station in Luxembourg) is currently available in Germany from pump storage stations, an additional power of 11 or 28 GW would be necessary. The effective storage capacity available today for the so-called revolving operation – the balance of daily fluctuations as opposed to the seasonal accumulating of river courses – is indicated in Tiedemann et al. (2008) and B€ unger et al. (2009) as approximately 40 GWh, whereby 5 GWh in the Vianden power station are also taken into account here. All characteristics of the wind calms are taken into account for determining the necessary storage capacity so as to be able to substitute peak load power stations.

68

4 Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power 700

Required Capacity [GWh]

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100 0 1

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Fig. 4.4 Required storage capacity for the substitution of peak load power stations (lead scenario 2030)

Figure 4.4 shows the capacity as a function of the additional storage power and corresponding power station power for the different calms. This means that, for 1 GW additional storage power, 10 GW power station power is necessary to cover the gap of 11 GW in 2030, so that the load can be covered at all times. The additional storage structures must have a capacity of at least 81 GWh in order to substitute 1 GW of power station power. If 11 GW of storage capacity is installed, no further power stations are necessary provided the storage plants have a capacity of more than 617 GWh available. In all variants looked at, the 5% calm with a length of 87 h represents the dimensioning case for the amount of energy required. The order of magnitude and the high capacity-power ratio are to be considered for the results mentioned. To aid comparison: the current largest pump storage station in Germany, Goldisthal, has, with 1,060 MW of power, a storage capacity of approximately 10 GWh, which corresponds to 10 full load hours. In the lead scenario in 2040þ, the capacities increase again considerably and amount to almost 1,700 GWh at the peak, if 28 GW power is to be completely replaced with storage (see Fig. 4.5). In this case, the 20% calm with a length of 218 h becomes important for the necessary capacity. The predictability of calms is critical when incorporating stored power, since the storage facilities must have sufficient storage volume and must be filled, from the start, as full as possible. Thus the values shown represent a worst-case situation, although the restriction applies that the calms must also be forecast with a certain lead time. Looking at technology options available today, compressed-air storage systems in particular can be applied for the energy quantities represented, as well as pump storage stations. In Germany, the potential for pump storage is almost exhausted, meaning that at best the power and capacity of existing plants can be increased within certain limits. Planning for various new building projects is taking place in Austria and Switzerland.

4.1

Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment

69

1,800

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1,000

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400

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Fig. 4.5 Required storage capacity for the substitution of peak load power stations (lead scenario 2040þ)

The potential for compressed-air storage in Germany is also restricted with regard to the necessary rock beds and formations, although an extremely optimistic potential in the North German Plain of approximately 3 TWh is indicated in Wolfhart and B€usgen (2007). In the estimations presented, the import of fuels and electricity from renewable sources, which contains a considerable energy quantity for 2040þ in particular according to Chap. 3, has been left out of the discussion up until this point. It must be considered, however, that wind calms in particular can also affect Germany’s neighbouring countries (especially the Netherlands and Poland) in the same way. There is thus no possibility of an additional importation from these countries if needed. It is also unclear to what extent the import from solar thermal power stations from the Sahara is to be regarded as secured power. Thus even qualitative estimations cannot be seriously made as to what extent the necessary power of 28 GW for 2040þ can be decreased by importation of fuels or electricity from secured renewable energy sources. Finally, the following can be said by way of evaluation: – In the lead scenario in 2030 and 2040þ, situations arise where the feed-in from renewable energy sources exceeds the load. This results in a potential for energy storage. By contrast, the renewable feed-in would have to be restricted if there were no up-to-date possibility of exportation or storage. – In the lead scenario, a calculated secured power of 7 GW in 2030 and 18 GW in 2040þ is lacking when carrying out a type day calculation. If looking at extreme values of calms, 18 GW in 2030 and 35 GW in 2040þ are lacking. These amounts would have to be covered by generation, storage, load control or import measures.

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4 Demand for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

– If this requirement is to be covered completely by stored power, a storage capacity of approximately 600 GWh for 2030 and of 1,700 GWh for 2040þ would be necessary due to the duration of possible wind calms. This capacity is far out of technically feasible ranges in Germany when applying the current technologies. The location of the storage facility could alternatively be in neighbouring countries, if the transmission capacity can be provided. Further alternative future technological options are discussed in more detail in Chap. 5. – The amount of import of renewable energy that can be assumed to be secured is a crucial factor of influence on foreseeable developments. The large-scale European weather conditions and the transmission capacity have to be considered in the context of this case in detail. Within the accuracy of this study – aiming at assessing only rough results – it can be assumed as a worst case scenario that neighbouring countries will not have large surpluses of renewable energy at the same time that Germany has a high deficit (see, e.g., Hoffmann 2010).

4.1.2

Estimation of the Storage Employment

In order to estimate the economic benefit of additionally available storage capacity, an optimisation calculation is carried out. This includes both a marginal cost-based power station employment and a time-dependent restriction reflecting the storage filling level. No use restrictions for the power stations are considered in the calculations. Since there are hardly any coal-fired power stations left and only peak power stations in the scenario 2040þ, the simplification seems permissible. The aim of the calculations is to economically evaluate the effect of storing generation surplus caused by high feed-in from renewable sources and to compare it to the necessary investment costs. Within the optimisation model, the storage filling level is only fixed at the beginning and at the end of the year and assumed to be at a 50% available storage capacity. Analogous to Sect. 4.1.1, 1 year is illustrated by 12 typical days (“type days”) with 24 h each. Because of the time dependency, due to the storage filling level, the 288 h are optimised simultaneously, since the sequential solution of each individual hour is not possible. This approach implies perfect foresight over a complete year, in determining the optimal storage and power station employment. The target function to be minimised corresponds to the generation costs of the conventional power stations, which are to be used to cover the given load. The effect of different storage capacities on the annual generation costs, resulting from the optimisation, is to be compared with the investment costs. For this purpose, the investments in the storage system, consisting of a power and capacity proportion, are considered on the one hand, and the possible substitution of peak load power stations on the other. The base case corresponds to the complete coverage of the peak load requirement by appropriate power stations and only the change of investment costs is looked at. Adiabatic compressed air storage (AA-CAES) with a total efficiency of 70% is assumed as storage technology here. Unlike the diathermic compressed air storage that is available today, no

4.1

Assessing the Balancing Demand and Storage Employment

71

additional firing is necessary with this type of storage, since the warmth created during compression is stored. Values of 600 €/kW (power proportion) and 3 €/kWh (capacity portion) are assumed for the investment costs. Investment costs of 800 €/kW are given as a target figure for 2020 in Wolfhart and B€ usgen (2007) and Kruck (2007), and it is assumed here that the costs will go down to the current costs of a diathermic storage by 2030 and 2040. The power of the compressor and of the generator is put on the same level in each case. Gas turbine power stations with investment costs of 300 €/kW are assumed as an alternative for the investment in compressed air storage. The annuity costs are determined for all investments to be made, in order to compare the former to the annual savings of generation costs. A required rate of return of 8% is set for a considered period of 20 years. In addition, there is a residual value after 20 years, since the technical service life of a storage and gas turbine is 40 years. In the case of linear depreciation, the residual value amounts to 50% of the initial investment, and after interest deduction to year 0, a proportion of 89.27% of the total investment remains. This proportion is distributed over the considered period using the annuity factor of 10.19%. The annuity investment costs therefore amount to 89.27% * 10.19% ¼ 9.09% of the investment sum. Two alternatives for storage dimensioning are considered for the calculation: – Variant A: The storage capacity corresponds to 8 full load hours in each case, meaning that the peak load power stations cannot be substituted completely. It is therefore determined for each storage size which additional power station power is still needed. – Variant B: The capacity corresponds to the dimensioning case described in Sect. 4.1.1.3, meaning that with 1 GW storage power, 1 GW power station power can be substituted in each case. Figure 4.6 represents the decrease in the annual generation costs as well as the change of the annuity investment costs for the lead scenario 2030. It is to be taken into account that the vertical axes have different scales, since the additional investment costs are around one order of magnitude above the saved generation costs. The decrease of the total generation costs (the system-wide benefit of storage) can therefore not come close to compensating for the necessary investment costs for storage. Moreover, variant B leads to a higher saving with lower investment costs, which results from the substitution of the peak load power stations. Figure 4.7 shows the results in an analogous form for the lead scenario 2040þ. It can be seen that variant B is economical for the first two cases. Besides the 15 or 16 GW additional storage power, another 13 or 12 GW of power station power is necessary in order to cover the maximum power deficit of 28 GW. Due to the possible substitution of peak load power stations with stored energy and the much higher feed-in from renewable sources compared to 2030, the system-wide benefit of energy storage is within the range of the necessary investment costs. The storage units can be loaded at costs close to 0 in the case of generation surplus, which leads to a strong decrease in generation costs. The storage capacity necessary for variant B amounts to approximately 700 GWh at 15 GW according to Fig. 4.5. Economically, this capacity is hardly feasible within Germany, even if different storage

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600

600 400

400

Δ Annuity investment [million /a]

Reduced generation costs [million /a]

Fig. 4.6 Reduction of the annual generation costs and annuity investments in storage (lead scenario 2030)

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Additional storage power[GW] Reduced generation costs (A)

Reduced generation costs (B)

Δ Annuity investment (A)

Δ Annuity investment (B)

Fig. 4.7 Reduction in the annual generation costs and annuity investments in storage (lead scenario 2040þ)

technologies are combined. If using storage facilities abroad, the additionally required network expansion must also be taken into consideration in the investment. The represented results of employment optimisation underestimate the actual value of storing electricity, since extreme situations are disregarded, due to the

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consideration of only seasonal averaged typical days (type days) with the appropriate feed-in and load profiles. It is in these situations in particular that market prices can go far above the marginal costs of generation due to the supply shortage. A fundamental model as used here is based on the short-term marginal costs of generation. The electrical load is modelled as price-inelastic demand and the last power station in the merit order determines the market price. As a result, no prices above the marginal costs of the most expensive power station arise. These prices are crucial however for the economic efficiency of peak load and storage power stations, since otherwise the peak-load power stations, above all, cannot obtain any coverage contributions. Storing electricity can exert a dampening effect on the price while leading to a positive effect on market results. It should be noted, however, that the assumption of perfect foresight over the complete year leads to an employment pattern of storage facilities that could not be achieved in practice. In conclusion, we see that in the long run, storage facilities will economically become feasible if sufficient surplus power and demand is available and the storage capacity can be used for balancing on a daily base. A detailed assessment would require a peak price model, which is extremely hard to set up for long-term future scenarios.

4.2

Assessing the Storage Demand Based on an Optimised Pan-European Low-Carbon Electrical Energy Supply Strategy

4.2.1

General Aspects and Boundary Conditions

The analysis of the energy scenarios showed that until today no reliable data are available on the total need for energy storage systems in future energy supply scenarios. The main reason is the very high complexity of the topic. The necessary capacity of storage systems depends strongly on the assumptions about the power generation mix, the geographic distribution of the power generators and the capacities of interconnecting grids among different regions. Only if answers to all these questions are given can the amount of storage capacity be derived from these data. The power generation mix must be defined by the amount of fluctuating renewable power generators and fuel-fired power plants. Furthermore, it is necessary to define the region within which balancing of power generation and power consumption should take place. The calculations have a very high degree of complexity due to the high number of uncertainties and the needed detailed data, especially with regard to the weather and the cost data for components of the power system. Existing studies typically define a certain share of renewable power generators in different countries, and based on these assumptions storage capacity is calculated to assure the power balance at any point in time.

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Therefore, we followed an extreme and simplified approach for the calculation of storage capacities on a European level. The assumptions for the approach are as follows: – We assume an “open countryside” approach for the power generation capacities and the trans-national transmission lines. The distribution grid and the timely and geographic distribution of loads are assumed to exist in the way that they do today. Geographically resolved weather data for 7 consecutive years, dealing also with extreme weather conditions are used, providing solar radiation and onshore and offshore wind conditions. – To deal appropriately with the storage systems, a time-step simulation with a time resolution of 1 h over the period of 7 years is performed in any calculation. – For the power plants, only onshore and offshore wind power generators and photovoltaic power generators are taken into account resulting in a 100% renewable scenario. – Maximum potentials for wind power and photovoltaics are taken from studies or the European Commission. Capacities for the storage capacities where not limited to any technical restrictions. – Two different categories of storage systems have been used for the optimisation, which were differentiated by the specific investment costs and the efficiency. Costs and efficiency of “short-term” storage devices were chosen according to pumped hydropower stations, but could also be realised by other storage technologies including batteries, electric vehicles or demand-side management. For the “long-term” storage systems, costs and efficiency were chosen according to hydrogen storage systems. – Europe, including North Africa and the Near East has been separated into 22 geographical regions. Even though the simulation approach would have been able to search for grid interconnection between all regions, we chose 61 connections between regions to limit the calculation time. The chosen scenario is surely an extreme scenario and we do not expect a realisation of the energy supply of the future based on this scenario. A future energy supply structure would include, even in a 100% renewable scenario, controllable power generators, such as hydropower and biomass. Using these controllable power sources will reduce the need for storage devices and will also lower the overall power generation costs. Therefore, the results presented here can be seen as an extreme scenario where only PV and wind power generators are used, including an intelligent interconnection between the different European areas.

4.2.2

Power Flow Calculation

To limit the total calculation efforts, a simplified power flow calculation is used. The structure of the calculation is depicted in Fig. 4.8. In each time step (duration 1 h) the load for the area is balanced in the first step with the actual power production from wind turbines and PV generators. In case energy from the electrical sector is used for powering the mobility sector, either by

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Assessing the Storage Demand Based on an Optimised Pan–European

Fig. 4.8 Schematic representation of the power flow calculation for each area in each time step (P.B.: power balancing)

Load (conventional)

-

1st Power Balance E-mobility

-

Transmission to balance energy

+/-

Storage short

+/-

Limit renewable

PV

Wind Turbine 2nd Power Balance 3rd P. B.

Storage long Transmission between storage of neighbours

+

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4th P. B.

+/-

5th P. B.

-

6th P. B.

If >0 penalty (Final power balance)

direct use of power in battery electric vehicles or by using hydrogen, this is taken into account in the second step of the power balance. This balance is done for all areas individually. Then, in the case of surplus or deficit power, a transmission via the grid to neighbouring areas is made if the connected area can handle this with benefits. “Neighbouring area” means any area that is connected via an HVDC transmission line to the area that is under consideration. All connected areas are announced for an energy exchange. As we assume HVDC transmission lines, the energy flow from area to area can be controlled precisely and is independent from the grid load in other regions. In AC grids the power flow would result from the impedance distribution in the grid. This is significantly more complex and would require always considering the total grid in each time step. After the levelling via the HVDC grid, local storage systems in each area are used for the balancing. Priority is on using the short-term storage. Only if the maximum power to the shortterm storage is taken into account, does the long-term storage enter the game. After using the local storage systems, further attempts are made to level out deficits or surplus energy with all neighbouring regions (fifth power balancing). If this still results in a remaining surplus or deficit in the respective area, energy is either dumped from the renewable power generators or a remaining deficit is recorded. For remaining deficits, a very high monetary fine is added to the system costs. This assures normally that the optimum solutions always result in system configuration, which totally cover the required load. Ideally, the calculations in all areas, including all grid connections, would be done at each step by a linear optimisation of all power flows. However, as this is very time consuming, we chose this step-by-step approach. We also limit the number of allowed grid connections, to not enlarge the number of variables too much. In total, the energy distribution remains very realistic because the order of power balancing steps is chosen in such a way as to minimise the use of storage

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systems, which would result in additional costs due to their limited lifespan, and to maximise the efficiency (transmissions lines first) which lowers the amount of necessary energy from the renewable power generators. The lower the total efficiency is, the more power from PV and wind is required, which would again increase the costs.

4.2.3

System Optimisation

System optimisation searches for the best combination of installed wind and PV capacity, short and long-term storage capacity (charging power, discharging power, energy capacity) and transmission line capacity in all regions of Europe, including North Africa and the Near East. The simulations are performed for periods of 7 years, based on meteorological data for all regions with an hourly resolution. This also includes data on the electricity consumption in all regions, including an assumed share for electro-mobility. The parameters to be optimised are the following: – Installed PV power capacity (GW), – Installed wind power generator capacity (GW), – Power capacity of HVDC transmission lines from region to region (GW), – Charging power capacity for short-term storage (GW), – Discharging power capacity for short-term storage (GW), – Storage capacity for short-term storage (GWh), – Charging power capacity for long-term storage (GW), – Discharging power capacity for long-term storage (GW), – Storage capacity for long-term storage (GWh). The optimisation is performed by using genetic algorithms. Several sets of parameters (individuals) are generated randomly for the first generation. Each set of parameters is used for a system simulation as a time-step simulation over the 7 years. At the end, the extent to which the required load could not have been served by the defined system is analysed. Unserved load is assumed to generate additional costs. The total costs of the system, including the additional costs for unserved load, are summarised. Sets of parameters with the best total cost numbers are used to generate new individuals, representing a new system design. For generating new individuals, functions known from evolution such as the survival of the fittest, mutation and crossing over are used. In addition, towards the end of the optimisation based on the thus far best result as a starting point, a widely applied simplex algorithm developed by Nelder and Mead is applied for the calculations (Nelder and Mead 1965). This allows for a local optimisation towards the local optimum. The algorithm can also “decide” for each region whether to couple it to other regions with a high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission line. The results show that several different system designs result in relatively similar costs per kWh. Therefore, it is no surprise if the system design parameters deviate significantly in different runs of the optimisation.

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Fig. 4.9 Visualisation of a test run, showing the structure, spatial resolution and the type of results which can be awaited of the pan-European model

Figure 4.9 shows exemplarily the results from an early test run on a geographical map of Europe. It gives a good overview about the considered elements and the spatial resolution of the model.

4.2.4

Cost Data and Other Assumptions

The following tables show the cost and lifetime data that have been used for the simulations. For the power generators, costs data have been used that should be achievable, according to different studies, in the coming 30 years, based on foreseeable economy of scale effects and further developments in the existing technologies. Thus, the assumed costs data look forward to the future, but no extraordinary assumptions have been made (Tables 4.1 and 4.2). The short-term storage systems are assumed according to costs of today’s pumped hydropower stations. The maximum allowed storage capacity is eight times the discharge power, resulting in a maximum discharge time of 8 h at full power. The optimisation is allowed to select the charging power, the discharging power and the storage capacities independently for each geographic region. The investment costs for a system with 8 h discharging capacity and similar charging and discharging power would result in 1,000 €/kW. It is well known that most countries do not have sufficient potential to install the necessary amount of shortterm storage as pumped hydro, however it is assumed that the storage capacity

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Table 4.1 General financial data

Parameter Interest rate Maintenance and repair

Assumed value 8% 1% of investment costs

Table 4.2 Definition of power generators

Parameter Wind power generators

Assumed value 1,200 €/kW installed power 20 years lifetime 1,100 €/kW installed power 20 years lifetime

Photovoltaic power generators

Table 4.3 Definition of short-term storage system

Parameter Efficiency charging of storage system Efficiency discharging of storage system Costs for charging interface Costs for discharging interface Costs for storage capacity Lifetime of storage system

Assumed value 90% 90% 300 €/kW 300 €/kW 50 €/kWh 40 years

Table 4.4 Definition of long-term storage system

Parameter Efficiency charging of storage system Efficiency discharging of storage system Costs for charging interface Costs for discharging interface Costs for storage capacity Lifetime of storage system

Assumed value 70% 50% 400 €/kW 400 €/kW 1 €/kWh 40 years

could also be provided by other technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles or demand-side management (Table 4.3) (see also the description of relevant technologies in Chap. 5). The technical and costs data of long-term storage systems are oriented on hydrogen storage systems with electrolysers and hydrogen gas turbines. The storage capacity is limited to a maximum of 60 days at full discharge power. Charging power, discharging power and storage capacity are optimised independently (Table 4.4). The connection of the different geographical regions is assumed to be realised by HVDC overhead lines. The efficiency of the power electronic converters at the beginning and the end of the line are estimated at 99% and the losses on the transmissions lines are 6% per 1,000 km. The grid costs are calculated for the trans-regional connections. The costs for the grids in the regions themselves are not taken into account in the total cost calculations (Table 4.5).

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Table 4.5 Definition of HVDC transmission lines

Parameter Efficiency of power conversion per station Efficiency of transmission Costs for power converter per station Costs for transmission line Lifetime of transmission lines

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Assumed value 99% 94% per 1,000 km 75 €/kW 185,000 €/(GW*1,000 km) 40 years

Table 4.6 Overview of the average results for power supply in Europe including North Africa and the Near East with all available technologies for a 100% power supply from wind and photovoltaics only Parameter Result Wind power capacity 1,457 GW installed Photovoltaic power capacity 1,210 GW installed “Short storage” discharge power 2,404 GW installed “Short storage” storage capacity 5,680 GWh installed (2.4 h full load) “Long storage” discharge power 1,978 GW installed “Long storage” storage capacity 741,107 GWh installed (15.6 days full load) Generation costs per kWh 17.1 €ct/kWh

4.2.5

First Model Results

First runs of the model show its applicability. However, the model is still in the development and some parameters will still have to be analysed in detail before it generates sound results. The first results presented here are very preliminary. Nonetheless, they show which kind of results can be awaited from the model. Assuming the whole of Europe and some parts of northern Africa as the modelling region and all possible technologies (see Fig. 4.9), the costs for the power supply were estimated to be about 17 €ct/kWh, which can be interpreted as first estimate on the order of magnitude for costs of a future energy system consisting only of wind power and photovoltaics, energy storage, and grid connections, and which has to be reconfirmed by further analyses. The total installed capacities for the complete region are shown in Table 4.6. Figure 4.10 shows the installed capacities normalised by consumption. The results in Table 4.7 refer to the best case, which has been calculated among all runs for the specific boundary conditions.

4.2.6

Discussion of Results

The results show that a full supply from renewables is possible, and show the relevance of storage systems in these scenarios. With further model runs it will prospectively be possible to demonstrate that the application of storage systems

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Fig. 4.10 Overview of the results for PV, wind and short and long storage capacities for power supply in Europe including North Africa and the Near East with all available technologies for a 100% power supply from wind and photovoltaics only normalised to the average power consumptions in the different regions. BNL: Benelux, CZE: Czech Republic, DEN: Denmark, DNE: Germany North East, DNW: Germany North West, DSE: Germany South East, DSW: Germany South West, ESP: Spain, FRA: France, GBR: Great Britain, GRE: Greece, HUN: Hungary, ITA: Italy, MEA: Middle East, NAF: North Africa, NOR: Norway, POL: Poland, ROM: Romania, RUS: Russia, SUI: Switzerland, SWE: Sweden, TUR: Turkey

4.3

Summary and Conclusions

81

Table 4.7 System design and operational results for the best case achieved in all simulation runs for Europe Overall results Electricity costs 17.1 €ct/kWh Total investment 5,973 billion € Wind turbines Photovoltaics Installed capacity 1,425 GW Installed capacity 1,270 GW Available full load hours 2,759 h Available full load hours 2,000 h Used/available power 88.8% Used/available power 91.6% Share of total investment 25.6% Share of total investment 20.9% Short storage Long storage Discharge capacity 2,198 GW Discharge capacity 1,860 GW Ratio discharging/charging 1.3 Ratio discharging/charging 1.1 capacity capacity GWh capacity 5,050 GWh GWh capacity 680,600 GWh Full load hours 2.3 h Full load hours 366 h Equivalent full cycles 86 cycles Equivalent full cycles 0.4 cycles Share of total investment 17.9% Share of total investment 26.8% Transmission lines Installed capacity 1,822 GW

lowers the total costs of power generation. First runs indicate that a European interconnection with a strong grid does not necessarily result in the lowest power generation costs for all areas. Some countries may achieve lower power generation costs if they make up their own market. This result could be different if restrictions on capacities of hydropower in the individual countries are considered. The first results of the model are promising with regard to its potential contribution to energy system analysis. It is an example for an approach that is completely different to the traditional ones, but can give interesting insights into the characteristics of potential future energy systems.

4.3

Summary and Conclusions

The analysis of required balancing energy and power in the analysed scenarios revealed that critical situations occur, particularly in the scenarios of the lead study (Leitstudie). A calculated secured power of 7 GW in 2030 and 18 GW in 2040þ is lacking under statistically average conditions. In extreme situations, the gap observed with the used data represents 18 GW in 2030 and 35 GW in 2040þ. Furthermore, situations in which the feed-in from renewables into the electricity grid exceeds the load occur. The calculations result in 4 TWh (1.4% of feed-in of renewables) and 21 TWh (4.7% of feed-in of renewables), which cannot be used in the system. Should the gaps have to be covered completely, estimations based on past situations show that storage units with a total capacity of 600 GWh in 2030 and 1,700 GWh in 2040þ would have to be implemented. Situations with 5% of

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remaining power from renewables in the system determine the required storage capacity for 2030, whereas for 2040þ, depending on the additional power installed, the cases of 5% and 20% determine the capacity required. The requirements are lowered in accordance with the extent to which import of secured electricity from renewable energies can be obtained. Considering compressed air storage as an example, and without peak pricing being taken into account, the investment costs for storage of energy are an order of magnitude higher than the saved generation costs in 2030. For 2040þ, additional storage capacity with a total power of 15 GW is economical if appropriate peak power stations can be substituted. The calculations are based on type days. Taking potential peak prices also into account, which could not be done in the analysis, it is anticipated that the economic benefits of storage application will increase. The pan-European modelling approach shows that applying completely new approaches and models for system analysis can give further interesting insights into the characteristics of potential future energy systems. With 17 €ct/kWh, the order of magnitude of costs has been estimated preliminarily for an energy system using only fluctuating renewable sources (wind and solar radiation) in combination with two types of energy storages, one long-term storage option and one short-term storage option, and sufficient grid connections. First model runs suggest that using storage facilities may lower the generation costs and strong grids may not be the least costly solution for all countries. Some countries may achieve lower costs by establishing their own market. These results have to be confirmed by further analyses. Nonetheless, the first test runs are promising and encourage the use of this and comparable new approaches for the further analysis of future energy systems with a specific focus on the application of storage systems for balancing electricity produced from wind and solar radiation.

5

Technologies for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

Having discussed the need for balancing electrical energy and power with additional technologies that can provide load adaption, transport of electricity from abroad, or storage of electricity, the following chapter provides an overview of technological options. Section 5.1 develops a classification scheme. Individual technologies are discussed in Sects. 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4, following the differentiation of “storage” technologies providing ways from “electricity to electricity”, “electricity to anything” and “anything to electricity”. Section 5.5 summarises options for demand response and demand-side management, including the bundling of individual technologies. The analysis in Sect. 5.6 reveals the life cycle costs of individual storage technologies. These are discussed in the context of different specific tasks involved in balancing energy and power. A central requirement for a system with a high penetration of renewable electricity suppliers and balancing capabilities is the viability of various technologies. Therefore, Sect. 5.7 analyses, to the extent possible, the future viability of relevant technologies. The environmental effects, resource use and system characteristics according to the indicators derived in Sect. 2.2 are considered.

5.1

Classification of Energy Storage Systems and Systems Offering Positive and Negative Control Power

Storing energy requires specific technologies, which are in general neither cheap nor efficient. Therefore, it is crucial to analyse the different options for storing energy in detail and to select appropriate technologies with regard to demand. The purpose of storage systems is to supply positive and negative control power on different time scales. The term “storage” will be used here to describe a system that can supply positive and/or negative control power to the grid and includes also technologies beyond the classical storage systems, which take up electrical energy and supply electrical energy. Certain storage technologies can be used for various applications. For comparison of storage technologies from an economic and technical point of view it is of B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_5, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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relevance to define the application of storage technologies appropriately. Different classifications are necessary to specify the storage system application. Three different classifications with three classes each can be defined as follows: A. type and location of storage systems, B. duration and frequency of power supply, C. input and output type of energy to and from the storage system. Class A differentiates the placement of the storage systems and the main objective for its installation. The classes are A1. modular storage systems with double use, A2. modular storage for grid use only, A3. centralised storage systems. “Modular storage” describes those technologies that are made from relatively small basic units. The basic units can be connected together to form larger systems, but neither the efficiency nor the specific costs are reduced significantly when storage system size is increased. Typically, there are no special requirements concerning the location of such batteries other than certain safety issues. In contrast, “centralised storage” technologies are those that are localised at specific sites and have specific requirements concerning the geological structure of the site (e.g., pumped hydro storage systems with two water basins on different levels). Furthermore, these technologies are typically characterised by the fact that efficiency increases while specific costs related to power and energy capacity decrease with increasing system size. Typical systems have an installed power of 100 MW or more. “Double use” indicates that the main purpose for the installation of the storage system is not to supply grid services. The storage systems are installed to serve in a certain application, e.g., such as mobility. Batteries in electric vehicles can be used additionally for grid services, but their main objective is to assure mobility. These storage systems are different, because first of all the operation schemes must take into account their limited availability for grid services, on the other hand, however, these storage systems are typically already financed by their main application. Therefore, the storage systems can serve grid services additionally, but they need not refinance themselves from grid services only. Class B has the following sub-classes: B1. “seconds to minutes” – short-term energy storage, B2. “daily storage” – medium-term energy storage, B3. “weekly to monthly storage” – long-term energy storage. The “short-term energy storage systems” have to supply their energy immediately after it is asked for. Full power is already supplied after a few seconds for a maximum duration of about a quarter of an hour. This allows these storage systems to supply primary control power to the grid or to serve as intermediate storage systems in applications with a high frequency of load changes. The latter could be, for example, cranes, which lift heavy loads, or acceleration and braking systems of trams and subways. The short-term energy storage systems have an energy to power ratio (installed capacity in kWh divided by the peak power in kW – E2P) of less than 0.25 h. Therefore, the storage systems must be capable of high power charging

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Classification of Energy Storage Systems and Systems Offering Positive

85

and discharging and – depending on the application – they can be subject to a huge number of charge/discharge cycles per day. The “medium-term energy storage systems” have an E2P ratio of 1–10 h and therefore the specific load on the storage systems is significantly less. Furthermore, the number of full cycles per day is very limited and rarely exceeds two full cycles a day. These storage systems make it possible to level differences in power generation consumption over the course of a day. Classically, such storage systems are charged during the night and supply additional power to the grid during peak load times (noon and late afternoon/early evening). These storage systems can also smooth out deviations between forecasted renewable power generation and actual generation. In contrast, “medium-term” storage systems cannot assure supply security if insufficient power generation from renewable sources occurs for prolonged periods of several days or weeks. To ensure supply security in such circumstances requires “long-term energy storage systems”. Systems with E2P ratios of 50–500 can supply energy for several days or weeks. Therefore, automatically, the number of cycles per year is very limited. This requires very cheap storage media to allow a refinancing of the storage system. In addition, the self-discharge of such systems should be low. Finally, “inputs and outputs of energy to and from the storage system” can be categorised as follows: C1. “electricity to electricity” – positive and negative control energy, C2. “anything to electricity” – positive control energy, C3. “electricity to anything” – negative control energy. The classification follows the strict definition of “storage systems” as elements in the power supply system, which can supply positive or negative control energy. According to this definition, “electricity to electricity” storage systems can supply positive and negative control energy to the grid. They take electricity from the grid to get charged and they supply electricity to the grid if needed. This is what typically is called a storage system. However, power or negative control energy could be served also by other technologies. “Anything to electricity” technologies support the grid with positive control energy either by shutting down electrical loads, which for the grid is the same as increased power generation capacities, or by supplying additional power to the grids from energy reserves stored otherwise. The latter category includes all conventional power plants, which can supply positive control energy for different periods of time from fossil, nuclear, hydro or biomass fuels. Controlled shutdown of loads can be supplied, for example, by demand-side management strategies or by controlling the charging of electric vehicles. “Electricity to anything” technologies use electrical energy and convert it into an energy carrier with a lower exergy level. The exergy level could be as low as zero, which is equivalent to the shutdown of a renewable power generator. However, the category also includes the generation of heat from electricity or the generation of chemical fuels from electricity, such as hydrogen or methane. A combination of an “anything to electricity” and an “electricity to anything” storage technology can provide the same services to the grid as an “electricity to

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electricity” storage system. Therefore, it is necessary to compare these technologies with regard to costs and technical potential. In addition, several other points must be taken into account when judging different storage technologies. The most relevant aspects are: – investment costs, – life cycle costs (LCC), – environmental life cycle analysis (LCA), – construction constrains, – overall energy efficiency, – overall impact on power supply system, – CO2 emissions, – national energy autonomy, – social and political acceptance. The various available technologies are listed in Tables 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3, based on the three main categories discussed above. Generally, all technologies belonging to a certain “duration and frequency” category (“seconds to minutes”, “daily” or “weekly to monthly”) are in direct competition to each other. By intelligent management, the modular storage systems can provide the same services to the grid as the centralised storage technologies.

5.2

Technical Description of “Electricity to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies for a Balanced Electrical Energy and Power Supply

This chapter discusses the different technical options for balancing the power supply and power demand in the grid. First, the different storage technologies for electrical energy are discussed. The technologies are classified as found in Table 5.1. Before looking at the different storage technologies in detail, it is worth having a look at the typical energy densities achieved with different classes of storage technologies. The comparison shows that chemical storage systems have, beside some options of heat storage, by far the highest energy densities, particularly when stored as liquids (Table 5.4).

5.2.1

“Mechanical” Storage Systems for Electric Power

Central storage systems typically have an installed power of more than 100 MW and typically are connected to high or extra high-voltage grids.

5.2.1.1 Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) Compressed air energy storage systems use power to compress air and store it under high pressure. If power is needed from the storage system, turbines generate electricity by depressing the compressed air. Compressed air storage systems can

Centralised storage technologies

Modular storage technologies for grid control only

Modular storage systems with double use

Typical time scale/energy-to-power (E2P) ratio “Seconds-to-minutes” “Daily” storage systems storage systems <0.25 h 1–10 h 1 kW–1 MW – electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles – electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles with bi-directional charger with bi-directional charger – grid-connected PV-battery systems – grid-connected PV-battery systems (e.g. lead-acid, lithium-ion, NaS, (e.g. lead-acid, lithium-ion, NaS, redox-flow, zinc-bromine batteries) redox-flow, zinc-bromine batteries) 1 kW–100 MW – flywheels – lead-acid batteries – (lead-acid batteries) – NaS batteries – NiCd/NiMH batteries – redox-flow batteries – EDLC (“SuperCaps”) – zinc-bromine flow batteries – lithium-ion batteries – lithium-ion batteries 100 MW–1 GW – compressed air (diabatic or adiabatic) – pumped hydro

“Electricity to electricity” storage systems only

Table 5.1 Classification of electrical energy storage systems (positive and negative control power)

Type of construction/typical power

– pumped hydro

– hydrogen

– redox-flow batteries (?)

“Weekly to monthly” storage systems 50–500 h

5.2 Technical Description of “Electricity to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies 87

Modular storage technologies for grid control only Centralised storage technologies

Modular storage systems with double use

100 MW–1 GW – rotating masses and steam reserve of conventional power plants – – – –

gas power plants coal power plants hydro storage solar thermal power plants with heat storage

Typical time scale/energy-to-power (E2P) ratio “Seconds-to-minutes” “Daily” storage systems storage systems <0.25 h 1–10 h 1 kW–1 MW – shut down of electric vehicles – CHP units with thermal storage and PHEV charging – demand side management (DSM) of electrical loads (shut down) – electric vehicles and PHEV (stop charging) 1 kW–100 MW – bio-gas power plants

“Anything to electricity” positive control power

Table 5.2 Classification of technologies for positive control power only

– nuclear power plants – hydro storage

– lignite power plants

– bio-gas power plants

“Weekly to monthly” storage systems 50–500 h

5

Type of construction/typical power

88 Technologies for Balancing Electrical Energy and Power

Centralised storage technologies

Modular storage technologies for grid control only

Modular storage systems with double use

Typical time scale/energy-to-power (E2P) ratio “Seconds-to-minutes” “Daily” storage systems storage systems <0.25 h 1–10 h 1 kW–1 MW – electric domestic house heating – electric domestic house heating or cooling incl. heat pumps or cooling incl. heat pumps – demand side management – demand side management (household and industry) (household and industry) – cooling devices – cooling devices – electric vehicles and PHEV – electric vehicles and PHEV with uni-directional charger with uni-directional charger 1 kW–100 MW – shut down of renewable – hydrogen for direct use (e.g. power generators (wind, PV) in the traffic sector) – methane or methanol made from CO2 and hydrogen – shut down of renewable power generators (wind, PV) 100 MW–1 GW – hydrogen for direct use (e.g. in the traffic sector) – methane or methanol made from CO2 and hydrogen

“Electricity to anything” negative control power

Table 5.3 Classification of technologies for negative control power only

Type of construction/typical power

– hydrogen for direct use (e.g. in the traffic sector) – methane or methanol made from CO2 and hydrogen

– hydrogen for direct use (e.g. in the traffic sector) – methane or methanol made from CO2 and hydrogen

“Weekly to monthly” storage systems 50–500 h

5.2 Technical Description of “Electricity to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies 89

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Table 5.4 Overview of volumetric energy densities of different storage technologies (first order approximations) Storage type Volumetric energy densities [kWh/m3] Mechanical energy storage Potential energy (e.g., pumped hydro with 360 m height difference) ~1 Kinetic energy (e.g., flywheels) ~1 Electrical storage Electrostatic fields (capacitors) ~10 Electromagnetic fields (coils) ~10 Heat storage Sensible heat (e.g., water @ DT ¼ 100 K) 116 Phase changes (e.g., water to steam) 636 Chemical storage systems Lithium-ion batteries ~300 Liquid hydrogen ~2,400 Gasoline ~12,000

have additional heat storage (adiabatic CAES) or they can use the heat needed during expansion of the air to avoid icing on the turbines from a conventional natural gas-fired turbine (diabatic CAES). The latter can achieve efficiencies in the order of 55% because the compression heat gets lost. Adiabatic CAES with high temperature heat storage can achieve efficiencies of up to 70%. (It should be noted that they are still, however, in the R&D phase; no real-size system has yet been deployed.) The losses are high due to heat generation during compression of the air. The compressed air is typically stored in underground caverns. Especially caved salt domes are an interesting technical and economical solution. However, this also restricts possible locations for CAES to areas with an appropriate geological formation for the air storage. Germany has many salt domes in its northern regions. This coincides well with the major potentials for wind power. Two diabatic CAES are in operation worldwide, several major utilities plan demonstration plants with adiabatic CAES in Germany for 2016–2018. According to Table 5.1, CAES are centralised “daily” storage systems.

5.2.1.2 Pumped Hydropower Plants Pumped hydropower plants are today the backbone of the power grid and provide almost all the storage capacity used in the power grid. Water flows between an upper storage lake and a lower reserve basin either by natural gravity through turbines (during power generation for positive control power) or by pumps (when consuming energy and storing it in the upper storage lake for negative control power). The upper lakes are either natural lakes with natural feeders or artificial lakes that are only supplied by pumped water. A typically sized pumped hydropower station using an artificial lake can provide full power for about 8 h either in the one or the other direction. The power generation can be controlled continuously

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over a wide power range. In older systems the pumps can hardly be controlled. They either work or they do not. To adapt the power to the required negative control power, the pumped hydropower station can either use different available pumps or the power station generates, in parallel, power to adjust the net power consumption (“water short circuit”). This results in relative low efficiencies. With the newest technologies for the motor, pump and power electronics, it is possible to adjust the pumping power continuously and to reach an efficiency level of around 80%. Typically, pumped hydropower stations are used today for levelling the difference between predicted and actual power profiles as well as for energy trading. This usually involves buying cheap energy from the grid during the night and selling it back during the peak load hours of the daytime. The systems with artificial lakes without natural feeders typically are sized to serve peak power for about 8 h. This size is, however, far from sufficient for supplying power during periods when there are several days of low wind speed. This would require significantly larger water reservoirs than are available today at lakes with dams and natural feeders. These existing systems would need a retrofit with pumps to become pumped hydro storage systems. An important question is how to get access to a sufficiently large water basin if no lower lake is available. Long caved pressure tunnels might be a solution, but it would be necessary to analyse the options in each case in detail with regard to the cost effectiveness. According to Table 5.1, pumped hydropower plants are centralised “daily” or “weekly to monthly” storage systems.

5.2.1.3 Hydro Storage Systems Huge hydro storage plants with natural feeders can be used also for levelling the power grid especially for longer periods of time. This can be achieved by an optimised operation strategy and would require additional turbines, but no pumps, and, therefore, no lower water basin. The optimised strategy would be to generate power only during long-lasting periods when there is insufficient power generation from fluctuating renewables. During other periods, the systems do not generate power or only small quantities, e.g., to assure a minimum water flow in the downstream rivers. As this reduces the number of operating hours even though the amount of water from the natural feeders remains the same, it is necessary to increase the installed power. This option is especially relevant in conjunction with very large hydro storage systems in Scandinavia and the Alps. As can be seen in Table 5.2, hydro storage systems are centralised “daily” or “monthly to weekly” storage systems for positive control power. 5.2.1.4 Flywheels Flywheels store energy as kinetic energy in rotating bodies. The ability of flywheels to store energy is, thus, proportional to the second power of the rotational speed and the moment of inertia of the rotating body. Three different technologies are on the market today. They can be grouped according to the rotational speed: slow rotating flywheels with approximately 5,000 revolutions per minute (rpm), medium rotational speeds with approximately 25,000 rpm, and fast rotating flywheels with approximately 100,000 rpm. However, increasing the rotational speed does not

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necessarily result in a higher level of stored energy, because the radius of the rotating bodies must be reduced with increasing rotational speed. Otherwise the materials of the rotating bodies could not withstand the centrifugal forces. For the medium and fast rotating flywheels, complex composite materials are applied, as also used, for example, in modern aircrafts. Flywheels in power storage systems have no mechanical coupling. The flywheel is accelerated by means of an electric motor, which is used in the case of discharge as a generator. Flywheels are classic high power storage devices, which can deliver very high power for short periods of time. This is very similar to electrochemical double-layer capacitors. The power rating of the flywheels only depends on sizing of the power electronics and the installed electro motor/generator. The number of lifetime cycles is almost unlimited. A major disadvantage of flywheels is the high self-discharge rate. This is due to losses in bearings and the friction of the rotating body. Therefore, vacuum housing and low-friction bearings are used. Depending on the product, it takes several hours for the flywheels to lose 50% of their stored energy. If high numbers of charge/discharge cycles are performed per day, this is not of major relevance, but flywheels are inefficient with regard to long-term energy storage. Table 5.1 categorises flywheels as a modular storage technology for use as “power” storage systems.

5.2.2

“Electrical” Storage Systems for Electric Power

5.2.2.1 Electrochemical Double-Layer Capacitors (“Supercaps”) Electrochemical double-layer capacitors (EDLC) fill the gap between classical capacitors used in power electronics or filters with their almost infinite cycle lifetime and rechargeable batteries with orders of magnitude higher energy density. EDLCs are often called “supercaps” even though this is originally a brand name. EDLCs combine properties from the world of capacitors and electrochemical devices. Energy is stored purely in electric static fields. However, the EDLCs have liquid electrolytes and they use ions for forming the second “plate” of the capacitor. One plate is made from a highly porous carbon material with a very high internal surface and the counter electrode is formed on this active surface by the ions dissolved in the electrolyte. During discharge, the ions move away from the carbon surface. No electrochemical reaction occurs in the cell in normal operation. The energy storage process is simply a physical movement of ions to the surface or away from it. This is the reason for very long cycle lifetimes in the order of a half to one million cycles. It is a system using liquid electrolyte. The liquid electrolyte is not 100% stable and is dissolved on the carbon surface. The reaction rate of this process is strongly correlated with temperature and voltage. The lifetime of EDLCs depends on operating conditions, but is in any case limited. Energy densities of commercial products are typically in the order of 4–6 Wh/kg, however the power density is very high and can go beyond 10 kW/kg. Together with the high cycle lifetime, this qualifies the technology for applications with a very high power demand for short periods of time, but at high cycle numbers. Typical discharge

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times should be in the order of 10s. Therefore, EDLCs can be used, for instance, in hybrid electric applications to support combustion engines during acceleration or for regenerative braking. Besides their low energy density, EDLCs are quite expensive. Prices for EDLCs are in the order of 10,000 €/kWh. Therefore, areas of applications for EDLCs in the power grid are mainly for power quality stability rather than for storing significant amounts of electrical energy. In Table 5.1, EDLCs are designated as modular storage technologies used for “power” storage systems.

5.2.2.2 Superconducting Coils While capacitors store electrical energy in an electrostatic field, coils in general store electrical energy in electro-dynamic fields. The stored energy depends on the current flowing in the coils. As losses are proportional to the current squared, industrial applications of coils as energy storage devices make sense only in cases of superconducting coils. Superconductivity results in zero resistance of the conductors and therefore no losses occur during storage in the coil itself. However, a very deep temperature is required, either below 4 K for classic superconducting materials or in the range of 30–80 K for high-temperature superconducting materials that require either liquid helium or liquid nitrogen. To keep the fluids liquid, a continuous operation of the cooling systems is required and ultimately this produces losses. Even though superconducting coils are an interesting technology from a scientific point of view, it is hardly possible to envision commercial applications in the field of energy storage systems with significant amounts of stored energy as discussed in this study. Therefore, this technology is not listed in Table 5.1.

5.2.3

“Chemical” Storage Systems for Electric Power

5.2.3.1 Lead-Acid Batteries Lead-acid battery technology is the electrochemical storage technology with the highest installed capacity worldwide. Many different applications, such as starter batteries in vehicles in combustions engines, uninterruptible power supplies, forklift trucks or traction applications, are served with lead-acid batteries. Several largescale battery systems in the range of some 10 MW and up to 50 MWh have been installed in the past based on lead-acid batteries. Lead-acid batteries are made mainly from lead, sulphuric acid and plastics. The energy density of approximately 25–35 Wh/kg is low, while the energy efficiency of 80–90% is fair. Stationary lead-acid batteries of high quality can achieve lifetimes of 6–12 years and cycle lifetimes of 2,000, and also, in special cases, more than 7,000 equivalent full cycles. Costs per kWh are today in the order of 100–250 €/kWh for the battery cells depending on the quality. Industrial batteries have recycling quotas near 100%. The secondary lead can be used again for battery production. Two different main technologies are used today: flooded lead-acid batteries with liquid electrolyte and valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) batteries

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with internal gas recombination. While the VRLA batteries require significantly reduced maintenance efforts and lower requirements with regard to the ventilation of the battery compartments, batteries with liquid electrolyte achieve longer cycle lifetimes in stationary applications. Large-scale battery systems based on lead-acid batteries have been erected around the world to solve local power quality and power supply problems. This includes battery systems for the stabilisation of grid extension, or frequency stabilisation. The largest battery system, which has been operated in Germany, was the BEWAG system in Berlin. The system was put into operation in 1986 in Berlin with an installed power of 17 MW and 14 MWh energy capacity. This system was used for frequency stabilisation in the island grid of West Berlin. The energy throughput of the battery was almost three times the nominal capacity, or more than 7,000 equivalent full cycles in almost 7 years or operation. Several more similar systems were planned, however, due to German reunification and the connection of the power system of West Berlin to the UCTE grid, the additional systems were not necessary after 1990. Lead-acid batteries have low energy density, low power density and a limited lifetime, but the basic material costs are very low and therefore the technology will retain a dominating position in the stationary battery market in the coming years. According to Table 5.1, lead-acid battery technology is a modular “power” which can be used in the “seconds to minutes” range, but preferably is used as a “daily” storage system.

5.2.3.2 High Temperature Sodium-Based Batteries Sodium-nickel chloride (NaNiCl2, also called the ZEBRA battery) and sodiumsulphur (NaS) batteries are different compared with other battery technologies, due to the high operating temperature of around 300 C. These batteries use a solid-state electrolyte with sodium-ion conduction. The active masses are either liquid (sodium or sulphur) or solid with an additional liquid electrolyte (NiCl2). If the batteries cool down, an operation is no longer possible. The number of thermal cycles should stay as small as possible to avoid thermo-mechanical stress. To maintain the temperature it is necessary to compensate the heat losses. This can be achieved either by cycling the batteries, which generates heat due to the internal losses, or by heating the batteries. Typically, the temperature can be maintained quite easily if the battery runs one cycle a day. A commercial 16 kWh ZEBRA battery pack with thermal insulation has a heat loss of approximately 100 W. While the ZEBRA battery is used these days mainly for mobile applications, such as electric vehicles or busses, the NaS battery is used only in stationary applications. NaS batteries are the most promising technology for stationary large-scale battery storage systems. The cycle lifetime is in the range of 10,000 cycles and the specific costs for the materials are very low. Especially in Japan, several battery systems for grid support in the range of several MW and up to 50 MWh have been installed and are in operation. The main challenges are the solid-state electrolytes for Naþ-conductivity, the gaskets, overall battery management and safety issues. According to Table 5.1, NaS batteries are modular “daily” storage systems.

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5.2.3.3 Lithium-Ion Batteries Lithium-ion batteries have their origin in portable applications such as laptops, mobile phones or PDAs. Lithium-ion batteries have the highest energy density (more than 200 Wh/kg) among all rechargeable battery technologies and show also very high efficiencies in the range of 90–95%. These efficiencies are unique among all electrical energy storage systems in addition to electrochemical double-layer capacitors. Lithium-ion batteries also can achieve very high power densities. Lithium-ion battery technology is a manifold technology where many different material combinations are used. Various cathode and anode materials, as well as separators and electrolyte formulations, allow the creation of batteries with a wide range of performance characteristics with regards to energy density, power density, safety, cycle and calendar lifetime, as well as high or low temperature performance. The huge number of material combinations results also in a very dynamic development of new and improved battery systems. Many companies follow different material combinations. There is, as of yet, no favourite material combination or cell design for future lithium-ion technologies. Beyond the markets for portable applications and power tools, electro-mobility is the main driver behind the development of lithium-ion battery technology. Improvements in cell technology and economy of scale effects caused by the automotive market also support the introduction of lithium-ion batteries in stationary applications. A special focus is currently on the double use of the batteries from electric vehicles for driving and for grid support. Lithium-ion batteries show sufficient cycle lifetime to also work for load-levelling or other grid service applications, in addition to normal driving. The main challenges of the lithium-ion batteries are safety issues and costs. For the automotive sector, a price reduction for electric vehicle batteries down to approximately 200 €/kWh is estimated for mass production towards 2020. For stationary applications, costs can decrease by maybe another 20% or so due to lower requirements with regard to cooling or energy density. Lithium-ion batteries are especially competitive compared with lead-acid batteries for discharge times below 1 h. This is due to the fact that lithium-ion batteries can deliver almost 100% of their capacity even at high current rates, while lead-acid batteries can only deliver about one third of their capacity at high current rates. In Table 5.1, lithium-ion batteries are designated as a modular storage technology preferred for use for “power”, but also for “daily” storage systems. 5.2.3.4 Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) and Nickel-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) Batteries Like lead-acid batteries, NiCd battery technology is a traditional battery technology. NiCd batteries have a high mechanical robustness and achieve cycle lifetime in the range of several 1,000 full cycles. Furthermore, they have the best deep temperature performance of all rechargeable battery technologies. A downside is that NiCd batteries are significantly more expensive and have a lower efficiency compared with lead-acid batteries. Besides cost and efficiency concerns, the toxic cadmium contained in the batteries is a major obstacle for their further market penetration and use in stationary battery markets. Even though today one of the

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largest battery storage systems in operation in Alaska (40 MW peak, 6.5 MWh within a 15 min discharge) is made from NiCd battery cells, it is expected that this technology might be replaced by lithium-ion batteries in the coming two decades. NiMH batteries have been developed to replace the use of toxic cadmium. The resulting NiMH technology has a better energy density and better power performance. In the last decade, it has become the leading technology for hybrid electric vehicles. Several hundred thousand hybrid vehicles, especially from Japanese car manufacturers, are equipped with NiMH batteries. However, the basic material costs are high and therefore there are significant cost reductions that would be necessary for large-scale stationary applications. These would be hard to achieve. Therefore, NiMH will remain mainly a technology for mobile applications. According to Table 5.1, NiCd and NiMH batteries are primarily modular storage technologies or “power” storage systems.

5.2.3.5 Redox-Flow Batteries Redox-flow batteries are different from conventional batteries because their active materials are dissolved in the charged and the discharged state in a liquid solution. Typically these salts are diluted in a solvent, also called the electrolyte.1 The dissolved active materials are stored in tanks and are pumped continuously or on demand into a reaction unit where the electrochemical charge/discharge process takes place. The reaction unit itself consists of structures on which surfaces the reduction or oxidation of the dissolved ions takes place, with current collectors and a membrane as the electrolyte and separator. The general concept is quite similar to reversible fuels cells and therefore the technology is sometimes called the “liquid fuel cell”. The total charge/discharge efficiency of redox-flow batteries can be in the order of 75% and is, therefore, almost twice as high as for hydrogen storage systems. As the solubility of the ions in the solution is limited, the energy density of the most popular vanadium redox-flow battery systems is on the order of the lead-acid battery. However, their big advantage is that the energy capacity of such a battery can be scaled very easily by increasing the tanks, while the power rating of a redoxflow battery is scaled by the size of the stack. Thus, energy capacity and power rating can be scaled independently of each other. As mentioned before, vanadium is the most popular material for redox-flow batteries. As vanadium is stable in sulphuric acid as the solvent in four different oxidation states, it can be used for both electrodes. On the one electrode V2þ/V3þ is used, while the other electrode uses V4þ/V5þ. If the battery is fully charge, only V2þ and V5þ are present, in the fully discharged state it is V3þ and V4þ. The open

1

From a systematic point of view, the solvent is not the electrolyte (even though these terms are used frequently). The function of an electrolyte is to couple the electrodes of an electrochemical system as an ion conductor and at the same time as an insulator for electrons. In redox-flow batteries this is the membrane in the stack that separates the liquid active materials of the positive and the negative electrode.

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circuit voltage is about 1.2 V. Other interesting material combinations are, for example, Fe/Cr, Br2/Cr or NaBr þ Na2S4/Na2S2 þ NaBr3 (Regenesys). However, no mature products with materials other than vanadium are on the market. A major technical challenge so far is the permeability of the membrane for the active material ions. If the active materials mix, the battery loses its ability for storing electrical energy. Due to the fact that vanadium is used on both electrodes, this is not of major concern for the vanadium redox-flow battery. A problem for vanadium is that it is relatively expensive and therefore not an appropriate material to achieve the very low costs, which would be necessary to make the redox-flow battery more than a daily storage system. Cycle lifetimes in the order of 10,000 cycles have been demonstrated. This is the level that would be needed for practical purposes. Special focus must be put on the conventional part of the system, including the tank, the temperature control and the piping. Another problem is that leakages are quite common. More positively, recycling of the active materials of redox-flow batteries is quite simple and efficient. Zinc-bromine batteries are also listed as redox-flow batteries. But, even though the electrodes are also liquid in the charged state, this is not the case for both electrodes after discharging. Zinc is plated during discharging as metallic zinc in the electrode and therefore the stack can discharge only a limited amount of materials. After a certain capacity throughput, the stack is simply filled with zinc. An independent sizing of energy capacity and power rating is therefore not possible. This technology is not suited for discharge times of more than some hours and the zinc-bromine battery should therefore not really be seen as a member of the class of redox-flow batteries. In Table 5.1, redox-flow batteries are categorised as modular “daily” or – maybe in the future – “weekly to monthly” storage systems, if new material combinations are found.

5.2.3.6 Hydrogen Storage Systems Hydrogen for energy storage has two main characteristics: a low efficiency of 25–40% (electrical power to hydrogen to electrical power) and very low specific costs for storage capacity. The hydrogen is generated by electrolysers. Various technologies are available, working either at moderate temperatures around 60 C or in the range of 1,000 C, or which can be operated directly at higher pressure levels between 30 and 200 bar to avoid additional external mechanical compressors. The reconversion of hydrogen to electric power can be done either by fuel cells or hydrogen turbines. Storage systems in the range of several 100 MW will most likely have hydrogen turbines rather than fuel cells. The costs are lowest if caved salt caverns are used for storing hydrogen at pressures of 50–200 bar. Costs for caving salt caverns are in the order of 40 €/m3. They will inevitably vary for different locations, depending on the local geological conditions and depending on the distance to the sea for draining the salty water. Very low investment costs of less than 0.50 €/kWh (see equation below) can be achieved according to the following assumptions: hydrogen pressure in full charged conditions is 100 and 50 bar have to remain for the cushion gas (gas which

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must remain in the cavern to maintain a sufficient pressure), a thermal energy of hydrogen of 3.5 kWh/Nm3, and an efficiency of 50% for the conversion of hydrogen to electric power. Specific investment costs ¼

40 m€3 €ct ¼ 46 kWh kWh ð100bar  50bar Þ  50%  3:5 Nm3

(5.1)

Compared with electrochemical battery technologies with investments costs not below 100 €/kWh, the investment costs for hydrogen storage systems are very small. Therefore hydrogen is, aside from hydropower, the only storage technology that is suited for long-term storage. However, the economy of hydrogen systems depends mainly on the costs for the electric power during the charging process. Due to the low overall efficiency, at least 2.5 kWh electric power must be purchased for 1 kWh of delivered electric power. The business plans of such storage systems depend mainly on assumptions for the electric power price. Some people assume electric power costs to be zero in periods of excess energy from renewable energy systems, because variable costs tend towards zero. If very low electricity costs for charging the hydrogen storage systems can be achieved, this technology becomes very interesting. However, renewable energy systems have very high fixed costs and therefore the total revenues must be calculated for achieving an economic operation. The assumption of zero costs for excess power periods means that power must be sold at higher prices during other periods to assure the refinancing of the system. The technical potential for hydrogen storage systems is huge. The cavern of the diabatic compressed air energy storage of the Huntdorf plant in Germany with 300,000 m3 volume filled with hydrogen instead of compressed air results in a storage capacity at 100 bar of 26 GWh (assuming 50% conversion efficiency to electricity and 50 bar remaining gas pressure for maintaining sufficient pressure). The pumped hydropower plants in Germany together feature a capacity of about 40 GWh in total. This shows the huge capacity of even a single storage system. Current natural gas storage systems that are used in Germany for the national reserve have a capacity of 20 billion m3 in 44 storage systems. Using this storage capacity for hydrogen for electrical power results in 35 TWh of available electrical power. This is sufficient to supply the electric power consumption of Germany for approximately 21 days. According to Table 5.1, hydrogen storage systems are centralised “weekly to monthly” storage systems. Additional downstream technologies based on hydrogen production are also the synthesis of, for example, CH4 or methanol. Both require CO2, either from concentrated sources or from the air. This allows using the energy also as a gas or liquid fuel in other applications. Reconverting the fuels into electricity only makes sense in decentralised CHP units with additional heat usage. Otherwise, the additional losses from synthesising CH4 or methanol (efficiency is in the order of 80% , starting from hydrogen) just add to the total losses of the system. However, this could be a good option for serving the transport sector with fuels from renewable energies.

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Technical Description and Potential of “Electricity to Anything”

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Table 5.3 notes that CH4 or methanol from renewable hydrogen can be produced in modular or in centralised storage systems and can function as “electricity to anything” technologies, which can be used for “daily” or “weekly to monthly” storage systems.

5.3

Technical Description and Potential of “Electricity to Anything” Energy Storage Technologies for a Balanced Electrical Energy and Power Supply

Apart from the measures of using peak load power stations (thermal power stations) or storage options to balance the fluctuating feed-in from renewable energy sources, the demand side can also be influenced in the form of load management in order to contribute to balancing (Grimm 2007). The increased integration of fluctuating feed-in plants (wind, sun) by all means permits a change from demand-oriented power supply to a generation-oriented power supply. Strategies for generationoriented power supply and, thus, for influencing demand must be investigated and evaluated with regard to an equally possible central solution. Demand-side management (DSM) and demand response (DR) provide the potential to shift decentralised loads of end customers, such as private, commercial or industry customers, according to their requirements. An electronic marketplace, as developed in the framework of the German E-Energy projects, could serve the end customer here as the necessary communication and interaction platform for the marketing of its power flexibilities. The loads can be influenced by two different mechanisms in principle. On the one hand, the end customer can react manually to suitable incentives (e.g., price signals) (demand response). This concerns all electrical devices of the end customer. On the other hand, an automated load control is conceivable for such devices, the deferred use and modulated operation mode of which entail no loss of comfort, economic consequences or restrictions in everyday household/business life (dispensable loads) (demand-side management). Since the manual customer reaction of the first mechanism cannot be assessed at present,2 the analysis concentrates on the potentials of an automated load control. In the following, the industrial sector (which, as expected, has the highest potentials for load shifting), the future area of electrical mobility and the household sector (white goods (washing machines, dishwashers, tumble dryers), electromobile and heat pumps) are analysed with regard to a possible contribution for adjusting the load to the fluctuating feed-in. Suitable shiftable loads are identified and then evaluated. Moreover, a first estimation is given for the inclusion of the CHP plants with a maximum power of 10 MW in a demand-side management approach.

2 In the framework of the E-DeMa project, more detailed findings on this are expected, based on the experiences of a 9-month field test in 2012.

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DSM Industrial Sector

Klobasa (2007) examines the load management potentials of the electricity-intensive industry. Klobasa’s result was based on the following sectors for the provision of power flexibilities: cement industry, paper industry, cross-sectional technology (air-conditioning), nutrition (cold storage houses), basic chemicals, nonferrous metals and metal production. The maximum shiftable power is the maximum power that can be disconnected or connected in one moment in a branch of industry. A total load management potential of approximately 3 GW results for 1 day for all industries. This is an estimation for the whole of Germany; the regional and geographical concentration and distribution of individual industries’ load management potentials has not been considered. As special contract customers, most of the described potentials of the industry are already being used. Different terms of delivery and more differentiated tariffs apply for industry customers in principle, meaning power suppliers already recognise saving and power shifting potentials and negotiate contractual conditions with customers accordingly. It can therefore not be expected that the concentration of power suppliers on the industry sectors will strongly increase. Klobasa (2007) also indicates that the potentials in the industry will not decisively change in the coming years. These values are therefore assumed as constant for the years looked at: 2020, 2030 and 2040. The only exception is the aluminium industry. For this branch of industry, which is essentially equipped with high load shifting potential, observers of the industry assume that a large portion of the generation capacity will be moved abroad by 2020. The main reason for this is the high price for primary energy in Germany. Because of this, a decrease in the shifting potential by more than 70%, from the current approximately 0.3 GW to less than 0.1 GW, is assumed in this segment (Klobasa 2007). In conclusion, by necessity, this section was based on findings from a single reference; further detailed investigation is lacking. The estimation of the load management potential of industrial loads is an open topic for investigation and discussion.

5.3.2

Balance Provision by Electrical Mobility

The estimation of electric vehicles’ potential for the provision of balancing energy is derived from the analysis of the load profiles that would result in the case of an uninfluenced charging behaviour. These load profiles were drawn up from real passenger car movement patterns and are described in more detail in Rehtanz and Rolink (2009). Figure 5.1 represents the average load curve, standardised for a single passenger car on a working day with uninfluenced charging and a load power of 3.7 kW (Rehtanz and Rolink 2009). Depending on the charging infrastructure, different scenarios result. Either the vehicles are charged at home only (home) or also at work (home and work) or additionally in public places (wide-area).

Technical Description and Potential of “Electricity to Anything” Charging power in W/passenger car

5.3

Home

Home and Work

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Wide-area

500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Time of day h

Fig. 5.1 Daily load curves of electric vehicles

The following basic assumptions apply for all three scenarios. The day range per vehicle is limited to a maximum of 100 km. The battery storage of the vehicles is to be sufficient for the complete daily mobility requirement (on average, approximately 30 km). This precondition makes an almost free deferral of the charging possible during the day. The energy consumption of the vehicles is 20 kWh/100 km. Furthermore, it is assumed that the vehicles are only charged starting from a resting duration of a minimum of 1 h. This number is taken, because for shorter parking times, the effort of plugging in the car is too high. If this time is reduced to 15 min, there is only a little impact on the resulting curves. As can be seen in Fig. 5.1, the vehicles are largely charged in the morning at around 04:00 h in all three scenarios if the charging behaviour is uninfluenced. As can be seen from Fig. 5.1, a release (peak load) of up to 350–500 MW is possible with one million electrical vehicles for 1–2 h. This value varies, however, in the course of the day, and the condition at least has to be fulfilled that all vehicles are charged at a certain point in time, e.g., at 05:00 h in the morning. Since the charging times can be shifted over the course of a day, a further effect can be obtained for adjusting consumption to energy provision, although a consistent load management must be developed for this. Unlike conventional and large household loads (e.g., those of white goods), the power requirement of the electric vehicles rises in the course of the day.

5.3.3

DSM Household Sector

5.3.3.1 Technical Potential of DSM in the Household Sector In principle, an end customer is designated as a household customer. The Energy Industry Act (EnWG) defines an end customer as one who has an electricity consumption of less than 10,000 kWh/a.

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A demand-side management model is used for the calculations used in estimating the load shifting potentials in the household sector (Kreutz et al. 2010). The target function of the DSM model consists of smoothing the residual load curve described in Sect. 4.1.1.1 on a transport network level. This leads to the residual load, which still has to be covered with fossil power stations that can provide a smaller fluctuation range in the course of the day and hence, a smoother curve. For this, less (expensive) peak load power stations or storage systems have to be used. When selecting suitable electrical appliances in the household for an automated load control, two criteria must be fulfilled: – The appliance must have a sufficient annual energy consumption and a significant power consumption. – A shift in operation must be accepted by the end customer. For private and commercial customers, load control measures can be an issue. Possible acceptance of consumers must be considered. This applies in particular for the areas of lighting, TV/audio and cooking. Cooling and freezing appliances take up 19% of the average electricity consumption of a household, although these appliances only briefly require power when operating the compressor and have a very low consumption otherwise. Besides, the energy efficiency of these devices would be impaired by these measures. So-called white goods take up 15% of the electricity consumption in households. Shifting the operation of these loads is much easier to justify than with the groups of appliances described previously. Of course, the electricity requirement depends on the living and customary habits of the end customers. This depends on the numbers of washing machines, dishwashers and tumble dryers operated, the frequency of use and the program sequencing applied (Gaul 2009). In accordance with the investigations in Gaul (2009), a use probability distribution per day and a program sequence have been specified for the respective groups of white goods. No interruptions in the program sequence are envisaged in the simulation, since this would result in a reduction in energy efficiency. Shifting the load therefore means shifting the starting time of the washing, rinsing or drying program. In Table 5.5 the equipment, the frequency of the use and the electricity consumption for white goods are indicated. Since current studies (see Chap. 3) forecast a significant rise of heat pumps and these have a relatively high energy consumption, these consumers are also included in the calculations. Regarding acceptance, it is to be expected that the end customers have no objections to load management of personal heat pumps, as long as the Table 5.5 Assumptions for DSM – white goods (2020, 2030 and period 2040þ)a Equipment level [%] Use per day [%] Electricity consumption per program sequence [kWh] Washing machine 93 48 0.9 Tumble dryer 38 25 2.5 Dishwasher 62 40 0.7 a

No program interruption after starting

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103

consumer’s heat requirement is covered. For the modelling of the daily load curve, load profiles standardised to an energy consumption of 1,000 kWh/a are used, depending on the season. So while the heat pumps run 24 h a day in winter and in the transition periods as planned, they are only used during the day in summer, between 06:00 and 22:00 h. Following the current procedure of the distribution network operator with regard to heat pumps, demand-side management is simulated daily by up to three cut-off times of 2 h each for load reduction. As a boundary condition, it is taken into account that at least 2 h pass between two cut-off times. The following assumptions were set for heat pumps in the context of DSM: – Forecast of annual electricity consumption of all heat pumps in Germany: • 2020: 4.4 TWh (Nitsch and Wenzel 2009), • 2030: 6.1 TWh (Nitsch and Wenzel 2009), • 2040þ: 6.4 TWh, – Annual electricity consumption per heat pump: 6,000 kWh, – Maximum electrical power per heat pump: 2 kW. The electric vehicles to be integrated into the network in the future are also modelled as electrical consumers. As regards the number of electric vehicles, an increase from the one million electric vehicles required in 2020 to 20 million electric vehicles in the period 2040þ is assumed. It is assumed that the electric vehicles’ introduction to the market will be successful and that demand for them is high. For the estimation of the effect of DSM in the case of electric vehicles, the uninfluenced load curve, as well as the assumptions and considerations, were set, as described in more detail in Sect. 5.3.2. The two scenarios political RES and lead scenario (see Chap. 3) are taken as a basis for the model calculations. One average day and three extreme days are looked at for each of the years 2020, 2030 and 2040þ. It is assumed in the consideration that there are no time or capacity-related restrictions in the load shifting, i.e., that all electrical loads specified above are fully available at the time when they are to be shifted and the end customers show the highest flexibility and acceptance. The DSM is iterated. First, the cut-off times for the heat pumps are considered, since it is assumed that the end customer is not affected by the control measure. The resulting residual load then serves as a basis for the second step, the load shift of the electric vehicles. Finally, the white goods are shifted in order to fill the valleys of the residual load curve as far as possible, which the first two steps could not fill. Optimising prioritisation would be possible as part of advanced investigations. An exemplary representation for the starting situation of the DSM model, Fig. 5.2 shows the uninfluenced feed-in of renewable energy and the expected total load curve for Germany for the lead scenario 2040þ. The data above makes clear how high each controllable load group’s power demand ratio in each quarter of an hour is to the total load. The high number of renewable energy conversion plants in the case of the lead scenario for 2040þ is responsible for the fact that there are times in the course of the day where feed-in supply is above the load demand. Figure 5.3 shows the result of the DSM simulation for the lead scenario 2040þ. Compared with Fig. 5.2, the loads are moved into time slots where there is too much feed-in from renewable energy sources at the times where the load demand was

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80 70 60 Power [GW]

50 40 30 20 10 00:15 01:00 01:45 02:30 03:15 04:00 04:45 05:30 06:15 07:00 07:45 08:30 09:15 10:00 10:45 11:30 12:15 13:00 13:45 14:30 15:15 16:00 16:45 17:30 18:15 19:00 19:45 20:30 21:15 22:00 22:45 23:30

0

Time [h] Load without controllable appliances Electrical vehicles Feed-in

Heat pumps White goods

Fig. 5.2 Feed-in of renewable energy and load curve in Germany for lead scenario 2040þ without DSM 80 70

Power [GW]

60 50 40 30

20 10

00:15 01:00 01:45 02:30 03:15 04:00 04:45 05:30 06:15 07:00 07:45 08:30 09:15 10:00 10:45 11:30 12:15 13:00 13:45 14:30 15:15 16:00 16:45 17:30 18:15 19:00 19:45 20:30 21:15 22:00 22:45 23:30

0

Time [h] Load without controllable appliances Electrical vehicles Feed-in

Heat pumps White goods

Fig. 5.3 Feed-in of renewable energy and load curve in Germany for the lead scenario 2040þ with DSM

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Table 5.6 Maximum shifting potential of residual load for average days of political RES and lead scenario DPmax [GW] 2020 Lead scenario 3.0 Political RES scenario 3.0 2030 Lead scenario 4.3 Political RES scenario 5.0 2040þ Lead scenario 7.5

higher than the regenerative feed-in. This example also makes it clear that the load requirement of Germany is too small for the peak feed-in times, meaning that there are still times where storage systems have to be filled or additional energy exported. As a last resort, if the storage systems need to be filled and no export is possible, the power stations using renewable energy sources have to be shut down. In Table 5.6, the parameter DPmax describes the maximum, simultaneous lowering of the peak load for the two scenarios – political RES and lead scenario – for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040þ. The power use of heat pumps, electric vehicles and white goods, reaches its maximum at DPmax. The shifting potential DPmax will prospectively increase from 3 GW up to 7.5 GW in the scenario 2040þ due to the increasing use of heat pumps and electric vehicles from 2020 onwards. The calculation assumes a complete shiftability of loads in the course of a day; however, due to user restrictions in the course of a day it is to be assumed that the real usable potential is only about half as great. This difference can only be exploited if the DSM mechanisms, including down to individual devices, run smoothly in an automated and user-friendly manner. It has been shown that the DSM in the household sector can, on the assumptions made, contribute to a levelling of the energy balance on a transport network level during one day. Load shifts are only carried out here on a distribution network level. This makes it important to investigate the change in the degree of simultaneity due to the load shift in order to prevent an overload situation in the distribution network (see Sect. 6.1). Important secondary considerations in DSM are network capacities and the ability to ensure power supply. The expected economic effects of using DSM must also be looked at in detail (see Sect. 5.3.3.2).

5.3.3.2 Expected Economic Benefits from DSM in the Household Sector For the lead scenario in 2030 and 2040þ in particular, where the renewable feed-in exceeds the network load in some instances, it is determined, alongside the maximum shifting potential of the residual load (see Sect. 5.3.3.1), how large the energy quantity is which is shifted by the DSM at times where there is an energy oversupply. It is possible to indicate the proportion of feed-in of renewable energy that can additionally be used by DSM (“RES additional use”). This value refers to the total feed-in of renewable energy. This percentage proportion provides information related to the smaller feed-in of fossil power stations when using

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DSM. In order to determine the percentage change to the generation costs as well as to the CO2 emissions caused by DSM in the household sector, a model that determines the hourly employment of conventional power stations for 12 typical days of a year (working days, Saturdays and Sundays across four seasons) is used (see Waniek et al. 2008). Based on the consideration of the hourly load curve found within a “typical” day, power station restrictions, such as minimum operating and shutdown durations as well as the start-up costs resulting from this, can also be considered. The power station database on which the model is based includes all larger power stations installed in Germany today (approximately 370) and has been supplemented and adapted accordingly for future scenarios. Apart from the information on the type of fuel, year of construction and installed power, the network node of the network model used in Chap. 6 is also allocated to each power station. Thus, the simulation of the power station employment also provides the nodespecific feed-in and feed-outs necessary for the network calculations. The market model is based on the assumption that the marginal costs are the decisive influence on bidder behaviour. Peak pricing effects, i.e., strategic bidder behaviour in situations of shortage, are not taken into consideration. This means that the value of peak load plants is underestimated. However, since this in turn affects all technologies looked at, such as peak load power stations, storage systems or load management in equal manner, no significant fault occurs in the comparison of the technologies. Table 5.7 contains the results of the model calculations for the political RES and the lead scenario in the case where there are no underlying time or capacity restrictions for the load shifting (see Sect. 5.3.3). The following points can be stated as substantial trends: – In the lead scenario in 2030 and 2040þ in which a high amount of regenerative electricity cannot be consumed in the system, applying DSM allows for the additional use of 0.7% and 1.5% of the feed-in of renewable energy, respectively. These precise proportions do not have to be generated by the conventional power stations. – The generation costs can be reduced by DSM. The largest savings are approximately 14% in 2040þ. – Besides the positive effects, an increase in CO2 emissions is determined in the scenarios until 2040þ. The reason for this is that base load power stations are increasingly used when smoothing the residual load, which leads to increased Table 5.7 Parameters for the average days of the political RES and lead scenario for 2020, 2030 and 2040þ D generation DCO2 emission DPmax [GW] Additional use of RES [%] costs [%] [%] 2020 Lead scenario 3.0 – 2.4 3.4 Political RES scenario 3.0 – 1.1 0.2 2030 Lead scenario 4.3 0.7 2.7 4.4 Political RES scenario 5.0 – 0.1 1.3 2040þ Lead scenario 7.5 1.5 13.9 7.5

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CO2 emissions in the case of a power station mix with brown and hard coal. A CO2 reduction is obtained through the changed composition of the base load in the scenario 2040þ. The model calculations show that the DSM by all means carries advantages in the household sector, such as the contribution to levelling out the energy balance on a transport network level and cost savings. In order to conclude the analysis of the household sector shifting potentials during a day, the reduced generation costs are to be compared with the additional costs for implementing demand-side management across Germany in the household sector. The minimum requirement for the necessary infrastructure consists in transferring a control signal to a central place in the household based on the Institution of Load Management (aggregator), and then from there to the individual controllable devices. In principle, deriving a cost estimation requires differentiating between the outhouse infrastructure, which ensures transmission to the households, and the inhouse infrastructure. It is assumed that outhouse infrastructure will be available from 2020 onwards. The use of the power supply infrastructure (PLC) or the Internet is possible for this. The DSM does not entail marginal costs since existing systems can be used. Things are different with inhouse communication. A communication module (gateway) is necessary as a central reception point for the control signal, which prepares the signal if necessary and transfers it to the controllable devices via PLC or radio technology, for example. If this technology is not present in a household, additional costs are incurred by the additional inhouse communication infrastructure required. In the example scenario 2040þ, generation cost savings of approximately 13% can be made with the DSM. This corresponds to an annual amount of approximately 650 million €. If the highest equipment level of the controllable appliances (93% of households are equipped with washing machines, and some households with additional white goods, heat pumps and electric vehicles) is considered, 37.2 million households would be eligible for a DSM. Accordingly, macroeconomic savings of approximately 18 € per year result for an individual household. However, this value can turn out to be higher due to peak pricing in the market, which cannot be modelled here. The technical implementation, consisting of investments in the necessary infrastructure and ongoing expenditure for contract management, accounting system and further operating costs necessary for executing a DSM, should therefore not exceed this amount. The customer may have comfort losses due to the DSM, meaning that a high acceptance is only to be assumed in the case of complete automation. In conclusion, DSM mechanisms contribute to the balancing of demand that will be required in the future. The value of these mechanisms per household is very limited. If the estimated value of 18 € per year is compared to the electricity bill of an average household of around 1,000 € per year, of which around one-third is actual energy cost, it is obvious that a pure shift of consumption cannot create a value of around more than 10% and more likely of only 6% under this particular calculation. In the context of DSM and the management of electric vehicles,

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communication between all the devices and the management entity (aggregator) is of crucial importance. Only with a standardised information and communication system (ICT system) for all the devices that have to managed could such a management scheme be efficiently set up in the future.

5.3.4

Shutdown of Renewable Power Generation

According to the classification of technologies that can provide negative control power to the grid found in Table 5.3, the shutdown of renewable power generators is also a technical option. This is possible for seconds to minutes or even for daily needs. In contrast with fuel-fired power plants, renewable power generators have almost no savings in costs if they are turned down to provide negative control power. Therefore, the costs for a shutdown are equivalent to the generation costs and are dominated by the depreciation of the investment. Nevertheless, the costs are clearly predictable and the shutdown of renewable power generators is very fast. The costs for a kWh not fed into the grid are more or less equivalent to the rate paid to the system operator according to the renewable feed-in law. While PV generators can reduce their power output within milliseconds, it takes some 10 s for a wind turbine to come to a standstill. While regularly occurring events can be handled with storage systems, the shutdown of renewable power generators is especially an option for peak events. This option is essential from a technical, economic and legal point of view. Currently, wind turbines already have to reduce their power output if the grid is overloaded. There is no similar option when an imbalance in total power generation results in significantly negative prices at the power exchange. Generally, the negative prices at the power exchange should not exceed the value of the energy from renewable power generators determined by the renewable feed-in law. However, to implement such strategies, it would be necessary to develop appropriate procedures to determine the amount of energy that was not fed into the grid by the individual power generator. This is not a trivial exercise. It would most probably be necessary to use reference meteorological data for the region and an accepted technical characteristic for the power generation system to calculate the loss in energy generation.

5.3.5

Generation of Chemical Fuels such as Hydrogen, Methane or Methanol from Electricity

An increasing important topic of discussion is the use of chemical fuels as largescale storage systems that can be fed into different sectors of energy consumption. Basically all approaches to the generation of chemical fuels are based on the generation of hydrogen as a first step. Therefore, the general assumptions found in Sect. 5.2.3.6 on hydrogen production are valid here as well.

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Technical Description of “Anything to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies

109

It is worthwhile to discuss the advantages of chemical fuels. The general idea is to use existing infrastructures for the storage and distribution of fuels, either as gas or as liquid fuel. The total consumption of such fuels is very high. To get to a CO2free energy supply will require a substitution of fossil fuels by CO2-neutral alternatives. Given that the potential storage capacity is huge, chemical fuels are an option that should be investigated. The technical processes to produce fuels from hydrogen (or using hydrogen directly) are well known. It is necessary to keep in mind that the processes typically have an efficiency of around 80% based on hydrogen as a raw material. This is true only if a concentrated source of CO2 is available, for example, from a conventional fossil fuel-fired power plant or from biomass power plants. If the CO2 is taken from the air, the total efficiency is reduced by a factor of approximately 0.8. For the following analysis, the availability of concentrated CO2 is assumed. The advantage of liquid fuels such as methanol from renewable energies is their very high energy density compared with all other electrical storage technologies. For renewable methane (CH4), there is the advantage of an existing infrastructure. Renewable methane can be distributed and used in the same way as natural gas. The main advantage of the concept is that production and usage of renewable fuels can be started without any additional infrastructural burden. Any size of production unit can be installed at any point in time to start the technology. Nevertheless, the overall efficiency of renewable fuels is low, especially if they are used to reproduce electricity. The efficiency from electricity to electricity is hardly more than 30%. Therefore, renewable fuels should be generated only if all options for distributing the generated electric power via grids are used and if a pure hydrogen storage system with reconversion of hydrogen to electricity on site makes no practical sense. Renewable fuels are, in addition to hydrogen and very large pumped hydro storage systems, one of the only options for monthly storage systems.

5.4

Technical Description of “Anything to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies for a Balanced Electrical Energy and Power Supply

5.4.1

CHP Plants with Thermal Storage

The rising number of decentralised combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) offers the possibility of aggregating power from decentralised generation. Two different types of CHP plants are focused on: The m-CHP plants with an electrical power generation of up to 10 kW and the local heat CHP plants for heating centres in combination with a local heat network with a maximum electrical power generation of 10 MW. The following assumptions and conditions form the basis for determining the shifting potentials: – The m-CHP plants looked at are run in monovalent operation and cannot be modulated but are subject to a clocking (connection and disconnection).

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– The local heat CHP plants are run in modulated operation. In order to cover the increased heat requirement a peak load boiler is additionally used. This peak load boiler is able to monovalently supply the adjacent local heat network with heat energy (if the CHP plant is being maintained or repaired). – All plants are heat-controlled and the heat requirement of the end customer must be covered at all times. – All plants have a sufficiently dimensioned heat store. – With both plant types, the associated heat store is completely filled in 4 h in full load operation and is also emptied in 4 h in the case of a high heat requirement. – Due to the varying heat requirements over the course of a year, the results after the summer and winter seasons are differentiated. – All plants can be coordinated centrally. The shifting potentials of the plant types are determined separately and at first, on a pro rata basis, based on installed power. In addition, positive and negative shifting potential are differentiated. The positive shifting potential represents the amount by which the generation power can be increased. The negative shifting potential indicates the amount by which the generation power can be reduced. Finally, forecasts from studies are taken as a basis and used to determine future shifting potentials. When stochastic mixing and clocking are taken as a basis, approximately 50% of the total installed power of all m-CHP plants is available on a winter day. This means that approximately 50% of the m-CHP plants are always in operation. Since the heat requirement is only given by hot water preparation in summer and since the m-CHP plants are thus only rarely in operation during the day, a power portion of 5% of the installed power of all m-CHP plants without coordination is assumed. If there is central coordination, a power percentage of 100% of the installed power of all m-CHP plants is available for 4 h maximum on one winter and one summer day. With coordination in a negative direction it is also possible to lower the power of all m-CHP plants to zero on a winter and a summer day. A positive and negative power potential of 50% of the installed power of all m-CHP plants results for one winter day. There is a very small power potential in a negative direction for a summer day, since the majority of the plants are not in operation at the same time (approximately 5%). With an appropriate coordination, the positive shifting potential amounts to 95% of the installed power of all m-CHP plants. In both cases however, the time sequence for filling and emptying the store is to be considered. When using the local heat CHP plants, it is necessary to determine, in a similar way to the m-CHP plants, how high the proportion of the generation power of the local heat CHP plants is in relation to the installed power of all local heat CHP plants without coordination. According to the dimensioning of the heating centre, the local heat CHP plants run continuously in winter without coordination and in full load operation. They are not subject to any clocking and are dimensioned in such a way that they cover the basic heat requirement of the relevant area. There is therefore no positive power potential in winter.

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Technical Description of “Anything to Electricity” Energy Storage Technologies

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In a similar way to the m-CHP plants, it is possible to set the generation of the local heat CHP plants to zero through coordination. There is a negative shifting potential of 100% of the total installed power of the local heat CHP plants in winter. It should be noted that this power can be available for a very long time, since the heat requirement is covered by an appropriate peak load boiler. It is nevertheless of interest to put the local heat CHP plant back into operation as soon as possible for reasons of economic efficiency. In summer, the local heat CHP plants are not in operation due to the low heat requirement. This means there is no negative shifting potential. It is however possible for all local heat CHP plants to feed in at the same time by way of coordination. Thus, there is a positive shifting potential of 100% of the total installed power of the local heat CHP plants. This power can only be provided for 4 h, since the heat store is filled after 4 h. In accordance with Nitsch (2008), the gross electricity generation of the m-CHP and local heat CHP plants is 30 TWh in 2020 and about 41 TWh in 2040. A high use of biogas is to be assumed here. A rise to 45.5 TWh is assumed for 2040. In 2020, a total power from the decentralised CHP plants of 11 GW is assumed. The percentage rise of the gross electricity generation has been used as a basis for determining the installed power of 2030 and 2040. An installed power of 15 GW results for 2030 and of 17 GW for 2040þ. However, these numbers strongly depend on the development of the building insulation, which has a high impact on the heat demand and on the heat-electricity ratio of the technology used. In Table 5.8, the forecast gross electricity generation and installed power of m-CHP plants and local heat CHP plants in Germany for 2020, 2030 and 2040þ is represented. It is to be noted here that the gross electricity generation in 2020 and the associated installed power from Nitsch (2008) suggest a very low average number of operation hours for the CHP plants. Based on these values, it is assumed that the number of operation hours of the local heat CHP plants is twice as large as that of the m-CHP plants. Accordingly, the power values Pm and Plocal heat shown in the table result. In the following tables, the shiftable power of the CHP plants in Germany determined above is presented. In Table 5.9, the amount by which generation power can be increased is indicated. This positive shifting potential is accompanied by the negative shifting potential, shown in Table 5.10. The negative shifting Table 5.8 Forecast gross electricity generation and installed power from CHP (<10 MW) (Nitsch 2008)

2020 2030 2040þ a

Gross electricity generation CHP plants [TWh] m CHP Local heat CHP Wm/TWh Wlocal heat/TWh 11.0 19.0 16.0 25.0 18.0 27.5

Total Wges/TWh 30.0 41.0 45.5

Installed power CHP plants (GW) m CHP Local heat CHP Pm/GW Plocal heat/GW 5.0a 6.0a 6.5a 8.5a a 10.0 7.0a

Total Pges/GW 11.0 15.0a 17.0a

This value is based on calculations, which in turn are based on the values from Nitsch (2008)

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Table 5.9 Positive shifting potential of the CHP plants (<10 MW)

2020 2030 2040þ

Shifting potential m CHP [GW] Winter Summer 3.0 5.7 4.25 8.1 5.0 9.5

Shifting potential Local heat CHP [GW] Winter Summer 0 5.0 0 6.5 0 7.0

Shifting potential m and local heat CHP [GW] Winter Summer 3.0 10.7 4.3 14.6 5.0 16.5

Table 5.10 Negative shifting potential of the CHP plants (<10 MW)

2020 2030 2040þ

Shifting potential m CHP [GW] Winter Summer 3.0 0.3 4.25 0.4 5 0.5

Shifting potential Local heat CHP [GW] Winter Summer 5 0 6.5 0 7 0

Shifting potential m and local heat CHP [GW] Winter Summer 8.0 0.3 10.75 0.4 12 0.5

potential represents the amount power by which the generation power can be reduced. Both a winter and a summer day are shown. The results indicate that only the m-CHP plants can realise a positive shifting potential in winter. Since local heat CHP plants are in continuous operation in winter without coordination, there is no positive shifting potential during this time. As the plants are only very rarely in operation in summer, a very high positive shifting potential can be reached on a summer day. Positive shifting potentials of 10.7, 14.6 and 16.5 GW are obtained in summer. Since the load peaks are observed in winter, however, coverage gaps in generation will more likely arise during the winter months. Looking at Table 5.10, it becomes clear that there is a very large negative shifting potential in winter. In 2020 to 2040þ, the total negative shifting potential rises from 8.0 to 12 GW. By contrast, a very small negative shifting potential is hit because of the low heat requirement in summer. The maximum value of the shifting potential in summer is 0.5 GW in the period 2040þ. As a concluding remark, it should be noted that in estimating maximum potential only winter and summer days were examined in this chapter. The transition periods offer possibilities for striking balances between positive and negative shifting potential. This means that a similar power value can be shifted both positively and negatively. It should be stressed that the shifting potentials for the different years are hypothetical. The development of the CHP plants beyond 2020 is difficult to estimate, since the CHP plants up to an electrical power of 50 kW are currently only in the market introduction phase.

5.5

Conclusions on Options for Demand Response and Demand-Side Management

5.4.2

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Conventional Power Plants Using Fossil, Nuclear, Hydro or Biofuels

According to Table 5.2, positive control energy can be supplied to the grid also from conventional power plants. In fact, today the primary control power comes almost completely from conventional power plants and through 24-h forward planning.

5.5

Conclusions on Options for Demand Response and Demand-Side Management

The power shifting potential of customer loads and distributed generation was estimated in the previous sections. Its management includes demand response, demand-side management and virtual power plants, which enable the shifting of distributed generation and load on a daily basis. Storage technologies that are applicable come from several classes of storage systems. Therefore, a separate analysis of all options is carried out in this section. In order to compare and evaluate the sectors examined in Sects. 5.3.1–5.4.1, the most important parameters are summarised in Table 5.11. As regards the maximum shifting potential, it should be noted again that this really represents a maximum value, which is reached in the case of an above-average user acceptance. The values and evaluation in the table refer to the lead scenario 2040þ, and thus to the period in which the new technologies will most probably be established and spread on the market. Looking at Table 5.11, it becomes clear that implementing DSM offers the largest potential with CHP plants. With a positive shifting potential of 5 GW in winter and 16.5 GW in summer, and a negative shifting potential of 12 GW in winter, the maximum positive shifting potential is far above the potential of controllable devices. However, due to the load correlation, the winter value is more relevant as the CHP is used fully during cooling periods. On the assumption that the number of electric vehicles will rise exponentially in the coming years and that the shifting potential across Germany will become very large because of this, it is important to include this sector in DSM. User acceptance Table 5.11 Prioritisation of the individual sectors for the scenario 2040þ Maximum shifting potential [GW] Heat pumps 0.6 White goods 1.9 Electric vehicles 6.0 Industrial loads 2.8 CHP (<10 MW) þ5/12 (winter) þ16.5/0.5 (summer)

User acceptance Very high Low High Very high High

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for electric vehicles is high as long as the car is not used. It is assumed, however, that the users do not want to be restricted in their driving behaviour. The heat pumps will have a relatively small potential of 0.6 GW in future. Due to very high user acceptance, including heat pumps in DSM systems is seen as more important than including white goods. White goods have a large shifting potential of 1.9 GW, but low user acceptance is assumed. White goods represent the greatest influence on user behaviour, and therefore it is assumed that they will be accepted by users only to a very limited extent. Due to restrictions in use and problems of acceptance, only half the potential that is technically possible is likely to be available in reality for electric vehicles and white goods. Since DSM already exists to some extent for industrial loads with a potential of 2.8 GW, it is necessary to ensure that this DSM continues to be improved and that newly developed generation processes can be added if necessary. User acceptance exists thanks to relatively large financial incentives. In total, the load shifting potential within a day is technically between 16.3 and 23.3 GW, but in real terms, considering user acceptance, probably less than 10 GW. A coverage contribution to the power gap of up to 35 GW in the scenario 2040þ must therefore be considered as a necessary option for future power system scenarios.

5.6

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Storage Technologies

Several storage technologies have been discussed, however, based on the given information it is almost impossible to choose “the best” technology. Several parameters define the performance of a storage technology and they are very different in nature and therefore difficult to rate against each other. The following table shows and describes the parameters that need to be defined for each storage technology. The parameters need to be adjusted to each other. For instance, for a high-quality device, high cost and long lifetimes can be an optimum choice, but a low-cost version with short lifetime might also be suitable. In fact, even more parameters must be taken into account for the cost calculation, such as costs for purchasing land, a building for the system or the suitable temperature range. These costs are not taken into account here, because they are either extremely site dependent (land) or will appear more or less in the same way for all technologies (building). For stationary applications, the temperature is typically not that important because the storage systems are operated under well-controlled conditions. Other aspects such as recyclability or limitation of resources are important parameters for judging the suitability of a storage technology. They are discussed in Sect. 5.7. However, they are of minor importance for an individual business decision if a new storage system is planned. However, a comparison of technologies can be made only if the application itself is well defined and the optimum parameters and options for a specific storage

5.6

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Storage Technologies

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Table 5.12 Parameters defining a storage technology Parameter Unit Description Costs per installed capacity €/kWh Defined per kWh of total installed capacity (independent from the net usage of the storage system) Calendar lifetime of Years Lifetime until the storage system itself needs storage system replacement Costs per installed power €/kW Includes all costs attributed to power related devices, such as inverters or generators The costs for the components needed during charging and during discharging can be different Calendar lifetime of Years Lifetime until the power-related elements need power-related components replacement The lifetime for the components needed during charging and during discharging can be different Efficiency % Three different efficiency values must be distinguished: – Charging efficiency (grid to storage) – Storage efficiency (possible losses in the storage, e.g., for gas compression) – Discharging efficiency (storage to grid) All are defined as the ratio of energy coming out of the process to energy going into the process. All auxiliary consumers are included Self-discharge %/month Energy losses related to the installed storage capacity while the energy is stored Depth of discharge (DOD) % Percentage of used capacity in day-to-day operation # Number of cycles at the defined DOD that can be Cycle lifetime of the storage system achieved in a constant cycling mode Maintenance and repair %/year Costs related to the total investment costs for keeping costs the system in perfect condition. Does not include the replacement costs for a component at the end of its lifetime

technology according to Table 5.12 are chosen. Storage applications need to be defined by the parameters listed in Table 5.13. Taking all these aspects into account, a first order approximation makes it possible to calculate the costs of the storage system expressed as €ct/kWh for power fed into the grid from the storage system. The calculated value is the amount of money that must be earned while selling power to the grid. It does not include the cost of buying the energy that can be sold to the grid. Based on this methodology, it is possible to compare the different storage technologies along all relevant aspects. Low efficiency, for example, is taken into account through the costs for buying the energy that is needed for the losses. Lifetimes of storage technologies are also taken into account. The methodology has not been developed to find out whether the storage system can be operated on an economical basis. This would require analysing not only costs but also the possible income that can be achieved with the system. For a given system definition, according to Table 5.13, the earnings should be independent from

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Table 5.13 Parameters defining a storage application Parameter Unit Description Charging power kW Defines the required power at which the storage systems can be charged Discharging power kW Defines the required power at which the storage system can be discharged Available energy from kWh Defines how much energy can be supplied from the storage the storage system system to an application Cycles per day #/day Defines how often per day the available energy from the storage system will be discharged (used) System lifetime Years Required period for which the storage system should be operated Capital costs % Capital cost rate used for the annuity calculation: the difference between the expected capital return rate and the inflation rate Electricity costs €ct/kWh Average rate at which the storage system buys electricity. The electricity costs are needed to calculate the operational costs of the storage systems, namely the energy which is getting lost in the efficiency chain of the system Table 5.14 Reference cases for an economic comparison of different storage technologies Reference case Long-term storage (“weekly to monthly storage”)

Short description

Energy storage for long periods with almost no wind energy (200 h operation at full power in both directions) Load levelling in Typical design of existing the transport grid large-scale pumped hydropower (“daily storage”) stations (e.g., Goldisthal) Peak shaving in the Storage system for peak shaving LV grid (“daily and load levelling storage”)

Charging power ¼ discharging power

Available energy

Cycles per day

500 MW

100 GWh

0.06 (1.5 cycles per month)

1 GW

8 GWh

1

100 kW

250 kWh

2

the specific storage technology. The methodology is mainly developed to compare storage technologies from the classes “daily storage” and “weekly to monthly storage” according to Sect. 5.1. Such a comparison of storage technologies has been performed in the framework of the VDE/ETG study (B€ unger et al. 2009). Some exemplary results from this study are discussed in the following paragraphs. Three different reference cases according to Table 5.14 will be discussed. Only some preselected technologies are analysed for the different reference cases. The width of the bars in the graphs (Figs. 5.4, 5.5, 5.6) represents the expected cost reduction potential starting at today’s costs and ending where specialists expect the costs to be in about 10 years’ time, assuming a very strong market growth. The data basis comes from literature studies and expert knowledge. The cost reduction potential is based on existing and demonstrated technologies and does not assume

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Hydrogen > 10 years

today

CAES today

> 10 years Pumped Hydro

depending on location 0

20

10

30

40

Fig. 5.4 Comparison of life cycle costs per delivered kWh for the reference case “long-term storage” (system lifetime 40 years, capital costs 8%, electricity costs 4 €ct/kWh)

Hydrogen today

> 10 years today CAES

> 10 years

Pumped Hydro

depending on location 0

5

10

15

20

25

costs [ ct/kWh]

Fig. 5.5 Comparison of life cycle costs per delivered kWh for the reference case “load levelling in the transport grid” (system lifetime 40 years, capital costs 8%, electricity costs 4 €ct/kWh)

totally new developments. For the established technologies, the bandwidth is smaller than for those technologies that just come onto the market. Finally, the left-hand end of the bar represents the costs that could be achieved assuming sound technological development and taking into account economy-of-scale effects. For the reference case “long-term storage”, only pumped hydro storage systems reveal relatively low costs (Fig. 5.4). Unfortunately, there is no clear vision as to where such huge pumped hydro system could be installed. Therefore, hydrogen storage technology with underground caverns is the most realistic option. Compressed air storage systems are not suited for this application due to high specific costs for the storage media. The reference case “load levelling in transport grids” represents the class of large existing pumped hydropower stations, such as Vianden and Goldisthal. The results show that adiabatic compressed air storage systems are comparable from the cost point of view. However, the impact of compressed air storage systems on the

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5 to 10 years

today

Redox-flow (Vanadium) NaNiCl (Zebra, high temp.) NaS (high temp.) Lithium-ion NiCd Lead-acid 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Fig. 5.6 Comparison of life cycle costs per delivered kWh for the reference case “peak shaving in the LV grid” (system lifetime 20 years, capital costs 8%, electricity costs 5 €ct/kWh)

environment is significantly less compared with new artificial lakes for the pumped hydro systems. Hydrogen storage systems are competitive for daily storage systems due to their low efficiency. However, this result depends very much on the assumed costs for the electricity that would need to be purchased to compensate the efficiency losses. Calculations not shown here indicate that battery technologies have a medium to long-term potential of 8–12 €ct/kWh. Such battery systems must be designed in a highly modular way from several smaller units. However, the costs are approximately twice as high as for the pumped-hydro storage systems. For the reference case “peak shaving in the LV grid”, all the different battery technologies can generally serve the requirements. The results show that the NaS battery technology has the best potential in terms of costs, followed by the lead-acid batteries. Zinc-bromine and vanadium redox-flow batteries can come close, but they are several years behind in status with regard to technical developments and the available field experience. Because the specification asks for two cycles per day, the specific costs are at best in the range of 5 €ct/kWh. To analyse the impact of the chosen parameters on the results, a sensitivity analysis has been performed. The results are shown here only qualitatively to get an idea of which parameters to keep an eye on (Table 5.15). The analysis is focused on the storage system classes “modular storage for grid use only” and “centralised storage systems” which are at the same time also part of the “electricity to electricity” class. A generalised analysis of the “modular storage with double use” technologies is very difficult because the costs depend too much on their main application.

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Table 5.15 Qualitative results from the sensitivity analysis for two different reference cases and technologies Reference case “peak shaving Parameter Reference case “load levelling in in the LV grid”, technology the transport grid”, technology “lead-acid battery” “pumped hydro” Efficiency Low to medium Low Electricity costs Medium to high Medium Costs per installed High High capacity Number of cycles High High per day Capital costs Medium Low Self discharge Not analysed Very low Maintenance and Not analysed Very low repair costs

In addition to the previously discussed issues, a cost analysis reveals some important general findings: – Most storage technologies have high initial investment costs and low operational costs. Only those storage technologies with relatively short lifetimes or low efficiencies have significant costs during their lifetimes. Therefore, capital costs are very sensitive to life cycle costs. This is comparable in the case of power production from renewable energies, such as wind and PV generators. – Battery technologies with a cycle lifetime but also high investment costs can hardly compete with battery technologies with shorter lifetimes and lower investment costs. As an example, doubling the lifetime of a storage technology from 10 to 20 years at a capital cost rate of 8% is only economical if the investment costs do not increase by more than 44%. – Among the pure storage systems for the long-term storage task, only hydrogen storage systems and pumped-hydro systems have a chance. However, in Germany there is very little potential for pumped hydro technology. Hydrogen storage systems are attractive despite the low efficiency if underground salt caverns are used for storage. – It is interesting to see that the cost projections for the coming years for most of the battery storage technologies are somewhere in the range of 5–10 €ct/kWh for a scenario of 2 cycles per day. This shows that it is worthwhile to follow the development of several different battery technologies and to see which of the technologies can ultimately meet the expectations.

5.7

Assessment of Future Viability of the Technologies’ Environmental Issues, Resource Use and System Characteristics

A major question related to auxiliary technologies for the generation and distribution of electrical energy, such as energy storage and electrical networks, is their viability in a future energy system. The main aim here is to consider whether

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aspects that are relevant for a long-term viable usage of the energy system could hamper the application of auxiliary technologies in the future. First, the methodology and data used for the quantitative assessment is explained. Then environmental impacts, resource use and system characteristics are analysed. A conclusion discusses the results of the analyses.

5.7.1

Methodology and Data Applied for Quantitative Assessment

The basis for evaluating technologies, particularly in relation to their environmental and resource suitability, is life cycle calculations. The technologies in focus are auxiliary energy storage technologies. It is beyond the scope of this study to carry out complete life cycle assessments of all auxiliary technologies, including energy storage systems and upgrades and extensions of electricity networks. Instead, published life cycle assessments are reviewed and analysed. In addition to journal articles and reports, data from the widely applied ecoinvent database (version 2.2, Ecoinvent 2010) are considered and used with the SimaPro life cycle assessment software. Based on this dataset, a life cycle screening of the technologies is made applying life cycle data on background processes and on the energy system for 2050 generated in the integrated project NEEDS3 (European Commission 2008b; ESU and IFEU 2008) (see also Sect. 3.1.3). The background processes projected to 2050, which for the study were individually implemented into the ecoinvent database, include production processes for aluminium, copper, nickel, iron, steel, metallurgical grade (MG)-silicon, zinc, clinker and flat glass as well as the electricity mix of UCTE countries and aluminium production. Details are described in ESU and IFEU (2008). For the impact analysis made by this study, when no sound estimates are available relating to future technological developments, it is assumed that current technologies remain unchanged into the future. Where sound estimates for future developments are available, these are taken into consideration.

5.7.2

Environmental Impacts

5.7.2.1 Assessment Methodology and Assumptions In order to evaluate the technology options with respect to their environmental impacts, an analysis of impacts and, where possible, related external costs is carried out. The estimated values of external costs can be considered in addition to the pure market-reflected costs for system optimisation purposes. Two types of technologies are investigated in the analysis: storage technologies and electrical networks. In order to make the results for the technologies comparable, the following functional units have been applied:

3 “New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability” – intergrated project funded by the European Commission in the sixth framework programme.

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– For storage technologies: kWh electric energy provided over the entire lifetime, – For distribution and transmission lines: an elementary unit of 1 m installed power line. For the environmental impact assessment, two methodologies where followed. The first is the so-called impact pathway approach developed within the ExternE project series. Starting from emissions of substances, concentration increases are estimated. These are used in exposure-response functions derived from epidemiological studies to assess individual impacts, which finally are evaluated as far as possible to arrive at external cost values. The impact pathway assessment has the advantage that the effects can be attributed to sources. The evaluation of diverse effects can be very impact specific. For instance, human health effects are distinguished with respect to individual diseases, with the applied monetary values considering as far as possible the direct individual loss of utility due to pain, suffering and time lost (see, e.g., Hunt and Markandya 2001). These are ideally deduced from willingness-to-pay studies as well as the indirect economic effects of production losses and health expenditures. The diseases and monetary valuation for human health impacts used in the calculations are shown in Table 5.16. As data from life cycle screening are used for the estimations and thus the relevant emissions are distributed over Europe, damage factors, which have been averaged over the geographical areas and height of emission from Preiss et al. (2008), were applied. The factors have been assessed on the basis of detailed runs of the EMEP model, “a multi-layer atmospheric dispersion model for simulating the long-range transport of air pollution” (Tarraso´n 2009, p. 3) with a horizontal resolution of 50  50 km2 (see ibid.), and detailed data of the analysed receptors, assuming the current geographical distribution together with respective exposure response functions and specific monetary values (see Preiss et al. 2008). Thus, impacts on human health, crop losses, material damages of facades and loss of biodiversity are covered. Details on the effects covered in the remaining impact categories and on the explicit monetary values used can be found in (ibid.). In order to show the influence that variations of the most controversially discussed evaluation, i.e., the valuation of years of life lost due to chronic exposure by particles, may have, upper and lower bounds of 100,000 and 25,000 € per year of life lost, as recommended by Desaigues et al. (2006), are applied for the sensitivity analysis. For the evaluation of climate change effects, the medium value of 70 €/tCO2,equivalent,4 recommended by the German Environment Agency in its methodological convention on external costs assessments, was applied (Umweltbundesamt 2007). The value represents a “best guess” on marginal damage costs derived from assessments carried out by Downing et al. (2005) with the so-called FUND model and has been recommended by Krewitt

4

If not differently indicated, the base year 2000 is used for the evaluation of environmental effects.

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Table 5.16 Human health effects and their evaluation as example for the approach applied in the study Risk group Physical impact Specific Specific monetary [1/(mg/m3)] impact unit value [€/impact unit] Primary and secondary inorganic aerosols <2.5 mm All 6.51E-04 YOLLa Life expectancy 40,000 reduction – chronic effects Net restricted activity All 9.59E-03 Days 130 days Work loss days All 1.39E-02 Days 295 Minor restricted activity All 3.69E-02 Days 38 days Primary and secondary inorganic aerosols <10 mm Increased mortality risk Infants 6.84E-08 Cases 3,000,000 (infants) New cases of chronic All 1.86E-05 Cases 200,000 bronchitis Respiratory hospital All 7.03E-06 Cases 2,000 admissions Cardiac hospital All 4.34E-06 Cases 2,000 admissions Medication use/ Children 4.03E-04 Cases 1 bronchodilator use Medication use/ Asthmatics 3.27E-03 Cases 1 bronchodilator use Lower respiratory Symptomatic 3.24E-02 Days 38 symptoms (adult) adults Lower respiratory All 2.08E-02 Days 38 symptoms (child) Ozone [mg/m3] (based on sum over means over 35 ppb) Increased mortality risk All 2.23E-06 YOLL 60,000 Respiratory hospital All 1.98E-06 Cases 2,000 admissions Minor restricted activity All 7.36E-03 Days 38 days Medication use/ Asthmatics 2.62E-03 Cases 1 bronchodilator use Lower resp. sympt. All 1.79E-03 Days 38 excluding cough Cough days All 1.04E-02 Days 38 Source: Preiss et al. (2008) YOLL: years of life lost

a

and Schlomann (2006). For sensitivity analysis, values of 20 and 280 €/tCO2 have been recommended (Umweltbundesamt 2007). The substances considered for the analysis comprise the classical air pollutants SO2, NH3, NMVOC, NOX

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and primary particles, as well as greenhouse gases, toxic substances and radionuclides. As a second approach, in order to cover further impacts, a widely applied standard method of Life Cycle Impact Assessment “CML 2001” is used. The effects are analysed in detail so that individual aspects of relevant technologies can be discussed. Using this methodology, a large variety of impact categories can be covered: abiotic depletion, acidification, eutrophication, global warming, ozone layer depletion, human toxicity, fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity, marine aquatic toxicity, terrestrial ecotoxicity and photochemical oxidation. In each category a substance is selected which is used as a reference. The potential effects of other substances are then estimated relative to this reference substance. On this basis, factors are derived which make it possible to express the potential effects of all substances in each category in terms of equivalents of the reference substance. Thus, the potential impacts of all substances can be aggregated by category, assuming implicitly average conditions. According to the baseline assumptions in the CML 2001 method, the following time horizons are used: 100 years for the global warming potential (GWP100) and infinite time horizon for the toxicity effects. For ozone layer depletion, steady state has been assumed. The results for the individual impact categories are not further aggregated.

5.7.2.2 Environmental External Costs of Balancing Technologies Figure 5.7 shows the external costs, assessed by following the impact pathway approach for storage technologies and alternative technologies with the data from ecoinvent 2.2 extended by data assumed for the future energy system within the NEEDS project (Ecoinvent 2010; NEEDS 2010). Assumptions for the cycle life of the batteries used were 3,000 for NiMH and 4,500 for Li-Ion batteries and for the gravimetric energy density 80 and 200 Wh/kg, respectively. Assuming the results of life cycle assessment from Rydh (1999), the numbers for lead-acid batteries include the processes of production of secondary (99%) and primary lead (1%) (26.8 g lead/ kWhel) and sulphuric acid (4.2 g sulphuric acid/kWhel). As no complete data for hydrogen storage is available, data from the assessment of hydrogen electrolysis for a hydrogen fuel station are taken from NEEDS (Maack 2008). The values assessed represent costs occurring due to emissions in 2050.5 From the results, it becomes obvious that emissions of SO2 will prospectively lead to the largest effects caused by using energy storage units. These are, for example, in the case of the NiMH battery6 and the electrolyser generated by high direct SO2 emissions in the nickel production process. As lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries are much more relevant for energy balancing and the results for NiMH are so high, the bar has only been displayed up to 10 € per MWel provided. Although 5

In order to project costs from today to 2050, the growth rate of GDP is assumed to be 2% until 2030 and 1% thereafter, with an income elasticity of 0.85. 6 As no other data are available, for the NiMH battery a dataset for 1 kg of notebook batteries is taken from ecoinvent 2.2.

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10 NH3, toxics & radionuclides

16

40

31

9.3

NMVOC

9

NOX

Euro/MWhel provided

8

primary particles

7.1

7

SO2 CO2

6 5 4 3 2 1.0

1.3

1.0

0.77

1

0.51

0.38

0.38

gas CC-CCS 500MW

wind offshore

photovoltaics high effects (multi-crystalline silicon, Central Europe)

photovoltaics low effects (cadmium telluride, Southern Europe)

hydrogen storage - only Electrolyser

pumped hydro non -alpine

pumped hydro alpine

Lithium- ion battery

Lead-acid battery

Nickel-metal hydride battery

0

Fig. 5.7 External costs in 2050 of analysed storage technologies, considering only their construction, and a photovoltaic facility, a wind power plant, and a gas combined cycle plant with CCS, considering the whole life cycle, in € per MWh provided. (The values for the storage facilities do not include the operation phase so that the electricity loss due to storage is not considered in the estimates. However, this can easily be calculated from the values by assuming a certain technology for electricity production. Using electricity from wind offshore plants assessed here and an efficiency of the storage option of 80% would result for example in additional external costs of 0.51 * 0.2  0.1 € per MWhel. For the assessment of nickel-metal hydride batteries, the ecoinvent unit process for batteries in notebooks is taken. For lead-acid batteries, only the processes of providing lead and sulphuric acid are considered according to the material required per kWhel taken from Rydh (1999, p. 23). The other processes are directly taken from NEEDS life cycle results (photovoltaics, wind, gas power plant) and respective ecoinvent unit processes (all others))

the electricity system includes a high share of renewable energies, some CO2 emissions still remain in the life cycle, particularly due to material production processes. The high values of the NiMH and lead acid batteries could be reduced by increasing the cycle lifetime significantly. The results for the lithium-ion battery, pumped hydro and the electrolyser are about equally high with the option of applying pumped hydro in alpine regions showing lower life cycle effects than in non-alpine regions. Furthermore, results for photovoltaic systems, representing a

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situation with low effects and one with high effects, and for a wind offshore plant, based on results from the NEEDS life cycle database (NEEDS 2010), are shown. These concur over a potential over-installation of plants. However, it has to be born in mind that the effects per produced energy unit will clearly increase with a decrease in usage, and thus in the total electricity produced by the plant, which has to be considered in case of over-installation. In total, the external costs estimated for the natural gas combined cycle plant, also represented here, with post-combustion carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology projected to 2050 (NEEDS 2010) are high, but lower than for NiMH batteries and at about the same level as lead-acid batteries per kWh electricity produced or stored and delivered respectively. Climate change effects still dominate the results for the gas power plant, although carbon is captured and stored. Assuming the value of 280 €/tCO2 for the evaluation, particularly the external costs of the gas combined cycle (CC) plant with CCS would increase by a factor of three. The ranking between the storage technologies changes only slightly. In contrast, assuming the value indicating the lower bound of 20 €/tCO2, the total external costs assessed for the gas CC plant with CCS would reduce by about a factor of two. In that case, the ranking remains mainly unchanged. The error bars drawn in the diagram represent the maximum range by assuming the discussed values on marginal climate changes damage costs and on life years lost. However, although these represent major uncertainties in the analysis, further uncertainties exist which are not considered in the error bars. Nonetheless, the results can be used to get an impression of the strengths and weaknesses of the different technologies in terms of environmental impacts, and show in which order of magnitude the resulting external costs are. Beyond the use of storage systems, changes in energy supply systems make it necessary to expand the electricity grids to function on different voltage levels (see Sect. 6.1). Depending on the balancing strategies, the voltage needs can be higher or lower. Such an expansion has to be considered particularly if the chosen strategy is an over-installation of photovoltaic and wind power plants, because it increases the power of remote solar and wind plants and, thus, the required network capacity. This is not necessarily the case for storage options. Accordingly, in addition to the external costs of storage systems, the grid connections are analysed with respect to external costs. Figure 5.7 shows the estimated external costs associated with the construction of transmission and distribution lines. The lines represent average technologies of today’s networks as defined within ecoinvent 2.2 (Ecoinvent 2010). The external costs are calculated as if the technologies are still in use in 2050. The estimated effects for high-voltage grids are dominated by the results for climate change. The reason is the high levels of CO2 emissions in the steel and aluminium production processes. The error bars indicate the maximal variations by applying the values for climate change effects and years of life lost from the sensitivity analysis, as discussed above (Fig. 5.8).

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20 18

NH3, toxics & radionuclides NMVOC

16 14

NOX primary particles SO2

Euro/m

12

CO2

10 8 5.5 6 4

3.2

4.0

2 0 distribution network

transmission medium voltage

transmission high voltage

Fig. 5.8 External costs in 2050 of analysed transmission and distribution lines in € per metre (m) line constructed, calculated for a lifetime of 30 years (Data were taken from ecoinvent 2.2. Data for steel production were adjusted to German conditions, assuming 500 m for the distance between masts)

5.7.2.3 Environmental Impacts of Balancing Technologies Differentiated into Categories Figure 5.9 shows the results for the assessment of impact categories following the assumptions used in the CML 2001 evaluation framework. In addition to relevant storage technologies,7 photovoltaic and wind power plants as well as further gas power plants as projected in NEEDS (2010) are considered: a gas combined cycle (CC) plant with post combustion carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology (500 MW) as considered in the external costs analysis, a gas turbine (50 MW) and the gas combined cycle plant without CCS technology (500 MW). The presentation of individual impacts allows the development of a more differentiated picture of environmental effects. In contrast to the assessed external costs which typically include only small marginal effects, not covering critical environmental damages (see Sect. 2.2.1), the evaluation in impact categories shows potential outcomes which also include critical effects with potentially unacceptable impacts such as eutrophication, acidification, land use, depletion of the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect.

7 The NiMH battery technology has been left out here because it is not as relevant as the options of lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries and would dominate the results.

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0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

Global warming (GWP100) kg CO2equ.

Eutrophication 600 400 200 0

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

Fresh water aquatic ecotox.

Marine aquatic ecotoxicity

Photochemical oxidation kg C2H4equ.

Terrestrial ecotoxicity

0.1

0.03 0.02 0.01 gas turbine

gas CC 500MW

wind-offshore

gas CC-CCS 500MW

photovoltaics, high effects

electrolyser (for H2-stor.)

photovoltaics, low effects

gas turbine

gas CC 500MW

wind-offshore

gas CC-CCS 500MW

photovoltaics, high effects

electrolyser (for H2-stor.)

photovoltaics, low effects

pumped hydro alpin

pumped hydro non-alpin

lead-acid battery

lithium-Ion-battery

lead-acid battery

0

0

lithium-lon-battery

0.2

kg 1,4-DB equ.

kg 1,4-DB equ.

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Human toxicity 80 60 40 20 0

t 1,4-DB equ.

g CFC-11 equ.

0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0

kg 1,4-DB equ.

Ozone layer depletion (ODP)

pumped hydro alpin

0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0

Acidification kg SO2equ.

kg Sb equ. kg PO42-equ.

Abiotic depletion 5 4 3 2 1 0

pumped hydro non-alpin

5.7

Fig. 5.9 Environmental impacts per MWhel by existing storage technologies, photovoltaic and wind power, and three options for using natural gas. The assumption is based on projections for 2050 conditions, which is the scenario “very optimistic” of the NEEDS project and which assumes 80% electricity production from renewable resources (see Sect. 3.1.3)

The pumped hydro plants and the electrolyser show the best performance in all categories. The lithium-ion battery performs worse than these technologies, but at a level similar to the electrolyser and better than other options, except for in the categories eutrophication and fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity. The lead-acid battery shows high effects, particularly in the area of acidification, fresh water aquatic

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ecotoxicity, terrestrial ecotoxicity and photochemical oxidation. The natural gas power plants dominate the categories of abiotic depletion, ozone layer depletion and global warming. Building more wind and photovoltaic power plants in particular would have an effect on marine aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity.

5.7.3

Resource Use

5.7.3.1 Types and Amounts of Resources Required Many mineral resources are used for energy storage and transmission and distribution lines. As we have already seen above, in the results relating to the environmental impacts associated with the production of energy storage technologies, energy storage, transmission and distribution lines, these are the main sources of SO2 and CO2 emissions when the electricity mix is dominated by renewable energies. Table 5.17 gives an overview of the amount of minerals used in batteries per kWh electricity produced during the lifetime of the battery. The information in the table allows a prediction of the extent to which various mineral materials would be required in a future energy system using the listed battery technologies at current development status. As lithium-based, lead-acid and vanadium redox-flow batteries Table 5.17 Minerals used for different battery types in percentage of weight considering the whole life cycle following Rydh and Sv€ard (2003, p. 172) and Rydh (1999, p. 23) Substance NiCd NiMH NiMH LiLeadVanadium (AB5) (AB2) based acid redox-flow Aluminium 0.019 0.5–2.0 0.5–1.0 4.6–24 Cadmium 15–20 Cerium 0.43–5.5 Cobalt 0.60 2.5–4.3 1.0–3.0 12–20 Chromium 0.017 0.02–0.08 0–1.6 Copper 5.0–10 0.3 0.8 Iron 29–40 20–25 23–25 4.7–25 Lanthanum 1.4–6.6 Lead 61 Lithium 1.5–5.5 Manganese 0.083 0.81–3.0 10–15 Neodymium 0.96–4.1 Nickel 15–20 25–46 34–39 12–15 Praseodymium 0.32–1.3 Titanium 2.2–3.9 Vanadium 2.2–4.7 15–20 5.6 Zinc 0.060 0.092–1.6 Zirconium 3.9–8.7 Antimony, tin, arsenic 2.1

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represent the most important options for stationary applications (see Sect. 5.2.3), the most important metals for this study are aluminium, antimony, arsenic, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, lithium, manganese, nickel, tin and vanadium. It is important to remember that many of these materials will also be required for electrolysers, gas turbines, fuel cells and other uses. Thus, the list of materials of interest is longer than that mentioned above. In the following, the situation of an extended list of materials will be discussed with respect to the reserves-to-production ratio and supply-side concentrations. These figures are generated based on general data for resource availability and production.

5.7.3.2 Current Availability of Relevant Mineral Resources Table 5.18 focuses on relevant mineral resource data. High prices show there is a scarcity of a mineral. The highest prices currently being paid, especially for platinum group metals, are in the range of millions of US dollars per tonne. Even if only small amounts of these metals are needed, it could lead to high production costs. The largest increases of prices between 2001 and 2006 were observed for cadmium (470%), nickel (460%) and zinc (450%), followed by copper (350%) and cobalt (250%). Also high increases (>100%) were observed for bauxite, chromium, iron, manganese, platinum, and zircon oxide. The reason for the price increases is the growing demand from the so-called BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China. These countries have had very high growth rates over the last many years. As an indicator of the sustainable use of resources, the reserves-to-production ratio can be used. Following Steger et al. (2005) (see also Sect. 2.2.2), reserves must not fall below 60 years to prevent system breakdowns. Looming reserve shortages are visible in the cases of antimony, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, manganese, nickel, tin, zinc and zircon oxide. In the case that one of these materials should run low, system change would have to be accelerated to prevent shortages in the availability of important technologies and spikes in prices during the transition phase to a new energy system. A further indicator of resource sustainability is the decrease of the reserve-to-production ratio. Only supplies of arsenic, copper, lithium, nickel, titanium, and zircon oxide appear to be stable. All other analysed mineral resources show a decrease in the reserve-to-production ratio, which means, following Steger et al. (2005), that these are not being used in sustainable ways. Even more alarming is that the reserve base is already below the 60-year mark for a large number of the minerals considered here. Figure 5.10 shows minerals with strongly varying reserve-to-production ratios with values below 100 years. While the reserves-to-production ratio for titanium increased permanently to values above 100 years and the value for cobalt is only occasionally crossing the 100-year line, the values for iron, yttrium and manganese decreased over the past years. They appear to have stabilised at around 70, 60 and between 40 and 60 years, respectively. Tin is continuously decreasing and is now at the low level of below 20 years availability. Regional concentrations of reserves and the delivery and revenue chain are also relevant. There are various cases where there are very large reserves (70 or more percent of known reserves) concentrated in just two countries (see Table 5.19). This

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Table 5.18 Prices, price increases, reserves-to-production and reserve-base-to-production ratios Substance Price Price increase Reserve-to- Increase of Reserve-base(average in (end of 2001 production reserves-toto-production 2006) to end of ratio in 2009 production ratio ratio in 2008 [US$/t] 2006) [%] [years]a (1996–2009) [%] [years]b Antimony – – 11 30 22 Arsenic – – 20 0 30 Bauxite 2,700 110 134 33 185 Cadmium 3,400 470 31 10 61 Chromium 1,400 130 15 – 41 Cobalt 35,000 250 106 28 171 Copper 6,700 350 36 21 65 Iron 72 170 70 54 158 Lead 1,300 250 20 14 44 203 433 Lithium 210 15 550c Manganese 280 130 56 36 391 Nickel 25,000 460 50 14 96 Platinum group 190 13 204 metals Platinum 37,000,000 140 Palladium 10,000,000 18 – – – Ruthenium 6,200,000 24 – – – Tin 9,000 83 18 49 37 Titanium 127 70 233 Ilmenite 80 20 131 76 241 Rutile 475 0 85 27 147 Vanadium – – 241 16 685 81d 69 Yttrium 10,000 – 61d 89,000 Zinc 3,300 450 18 4 41 Zircon oxide 750 144 46 22 60 Sources: BGR (2007), USGS (2010) Reserves represent that part of the resources/reserve base that could be economically extracted or produced at the time of determination (see definitions at USGS 2010) b The reserve base is the in-place demonstrated (measured plus indicated) resource from which reserves are estimated (see definitions at USGS 2010) c Extreme increase from 2008 to 2009, particularly because of high increase in reserves in all countries and estimated decrease in production for 2009 (see USGS 2010). Other sources mention higher numbers, for example, Roskill (2009) with 24 million tons in comparison to 9.9 million tons listed at USGS (2010) (see also Angerer et al. 2009) d Value in 2008 a

is the case for chromium (88%), cobalt (74%), lithium (84%), platinum group metals (97%), vanadium (76%) and zirconium oxide (70%). The situation is similar for the concentration in the supply chain, as can be seen in the cases of the platinum group metals, yttrium and zircon oxide. High concentration among corporate

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100

Reserves-to-production ratio [years]

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Cobalt

Iron

20

Manganese

Tin

10

Titanium

Yttrium

"Sustainable" 0 1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Fig. 5.10 Mineral resources showing varying or significantly decreasing reserve-to-production ratios at low levels from 1996 to 2009

providers is observed in the case of palladium where the Russian firm, Norilsk Nickel, covers 50% of the delivery and revenue chain. It is difficult to accurately evaluate countries with respect to their contractual and political behaviour. Nonetheless, there are many problems with the metal markets associated with Russia, China, Ukraine, Pakistan and India (Behrendt et al. 2007). China and Russia, respectively, determine market availability and potentially the prices of yttrium and palladium. For some minerals, such as titanium, the resource supply is unproblematic. There are also only relatively few problems associated with lithium and vanadium for which large reserves and reserve bases exist. Copper, nickel and zircon oxide, with an increase in reserve-to-production ratio/period of secured practice showing an estimated value of about 36–50 years, are being used more or less sustainably. In the case of some of these minerals, especially lithium, vanadium and zircon oxide, however, there are large regional concentrations in the supply chain in only a few countries.

5.7.3.3 Resource Potentials for the Production of Balancing Technologies Of all balancing technologies, particularly batteries have high mineral resource requirements. The most important battery types for this analysis are lithium-ion, lead-acid batteries and redox-flow batteries making use of vanadium. In order to get an impression of the material requirements relative to the minerals available, and following the concept of Rydh (1999, p. 26), Table 5.20 shows the theoretical energy capacity that could be realised with the reserves. Numbers in brackets indicate the case that the reserve-to-production rates are kept at 60 years, which is assumed to be a sustainable rate. Assumptions for the gravimetric energy density

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Table 5.19 Regional and corporate concentration of reserves and characteristics of delivery and revenue chain for relevant mineral resources (see BGR 2007; USGS 2010) Substance Regional Regional concentration in Corporate concentration in concentration in delivery and revenues chain delivery/revenues chain reserves (2009)a (2005)b (2005) Antimony China (37%), – – Thailand (20%) Arsenic – – – Bauxite Guinea (27%), Australia (34%), Brazil Alcoa (USA, 16%), Alumina Australia (23%) (13%) Ltd. (Australia, 9%) Cadmium China (15%), China (16%), South Korea Industias Penoles (Mexico, Russia (12%) (13%) 5%), Zinifex (Australia, 3%) Chromium Kazakhstan (51%), South Africa (43%), India Eurasian Nat. res. Corp. (KZ, South Africa (37%) (19%) 19%), Kermas Group (GB, 18%) Cobalt Congo (51%), Congo (40%), Canada Inco (Canada, 8%), Glencore Australia (23%) (10%) (Switzerland, 4%) Copper Chile (30%), Peru Chile (40%), USA (8%) Codelco (Chile, 13%), BHP (12%) Billiton (Australia, 9%) Russia (18%), Brazil (22%), Australia CVRD (Brazil, 19%), Rio Ironc Australia (17%) (20%) Tinto (GB, 9%) Lead Australia (29%), China (31%), Australia BHP Billiton (Australia, 9%), China (15%) (23%) Doe Run (USA, 8%) Chile (45%), Australia GEA Group AG (GER, 24%), Lithium Chile (76%), (24%) Sons of Gwalia (Australia, Argentina (8%)d 24%) Manganese Ukraine (26%), China (18%), South Africa Samacor (South Africa, 19%), South Africa (24%) (16%) CVRD (Brazil, 9%) Russia (21%), Canada Norilsk Nickel (RU, 18%), Nickel Australia (37%), (14%) Inco (Canada, 14%) New Caledonia (10%) Platinum South Africa (88%), – – group metals Russia (9%) Platinum – South Africa (78%), Anglo American (GB, 34%), Russia (13%) ImpalaPlatinum Hld. (SAF, 21%) Palladium – Russia (44%), South Norilsk Nickel (RU, 50%), Africa (40%) Anglo American (GB, 18%) Ruthenium – – – Tin China (31%), China (40%), Indonesia State of Indonesia (17%), Indonesia (14%) (27%) Minsur (Peru, 15%) Titanium – Australia (31%), South Rio Tinto (GB, 24%), Iluka Africa (20%) Resources (Australia, 20%) Ilmenite China (29%), – – Australia (19%) Rutile Australia (48%), – – South Africa (18%) (continued)

5.7

Assessment of Future Viability

Table 5.19 (continued) Substance Regional concentration in reserves (2009)a Vanadium China (38%), Russia (38%) Yttrium China (40%), USA (22%) Zinc China (17%), Australia (11%) Zircon oxide Australia (45%), South Africa (25%)

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Regional concentration in delivery/revenues chain (2005) –

Corporate concentration in delivery and revenues chain (2005)b –

China (99%)

–

China (25%), Australia (14%) Australia (39%), South Africa (33%)

Teck Cominco (Canada, 7%), Zinifex (Australia, 6%) Iluka Resources (AUS, 35%), Anglo American (GB, 18%)

a

For Yttrium: 2008 KZ: Kazakhstan, GB: Great Britain, GER: Germany, SAF: South Africa, RU: Russia, AUS: Australia c Iron content d Some sources estimate more reserves in Argentina (e.g., Tahil 2007; Angerer et al. 2009) b

Table 5.20 Theoretical battery capacity realisable with defined by Rydh (1999, p. 26) Substance Li-based Cobalt 6.6–11 (2.9–4.8) Copper 1,100–2,200 (ns) Iron 130,000–680,000 (18,000–94,000) Lead Lithium 36–130 (32–120) Manganese 720–1,100 (ns) Nickel 95–120 (ns) Vanadium 13a–17 (9.8–13)

current reserves following an indicator Lead-acid

Vanadium redox-flow

6,840 (ns)

1,700 (ns)

4.9 (ns)

5.8 (4.4)

Numbers in brackets show the case that the reserves are used sustainably so that the reserve-toproduction ratio is 60 years as minimum (“ns” means no sustainable use possible, because the reserve-to production ratio is already below 60 years). The numbers are expressed in TWh electricity storable a Lithium-polymer batteries on a vanadium basis, assuming the same gravimetric density as lithium-ion batteries

were 200, 38 and 25 Wh/kg for lithium-ion, lead-acid and redox-flow batteries, respectively. With respect to the known reserves, very high battery capacities of at least some TWh could theoretically be realised with each technology. At a minimum, the estimated amounts are 6.6 TWhel for lithium-ion batteries, 4.9 TWhel for lead-acid batteries and 5.8 TWhel for vanadium redox-flow batteries. The lithium battery production could be increased if no vanadium or manganese were required, as these are the limiting minerals. Compared to the derived storage capacity required in 2040þ of 1.7 TWhel in the case of Germany (see Sect. 4.1.1.3), these numbers are higher but in the same order of magnitude. This suggests that these technologies cannot be the only solution for balancing electrical energy and power in the system.

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In the case that lithium-ion batteries are used in electric vehicles and assuming that these require a capacity of 10 kWhel and have a range of about 100 km, then, if the 6.6 TWhel estimation for cobalt is accurate and binding,8 660 million cars could be built. This means about one car per ten people. This is about the number of passenger cars in the world today (see, e.g., Angerer et al. 2009: 800 million vehicles in 2008; Wikipedia 2011: 600 million passenger cars in 2007, strongly increasing). If it is assumed that the reserves of lithium will be binding instead of cobalt, because no or limited cobalt is required for the specific Li-ion battery type, the realisable capacity increases to 36 TWhel and the number of electric vehicles that could be realised under the above assumptions increases to 3.6 billion. The numbers become smaller (see Table 5.20, numbers in brackets) if it is assumed that the reserve-to-production ratio has to be 60 years or higher in order to allow enough time for switching the system, and reserves are continuously decreasing. In this case, these technologies would seem to be no longer applicable in the long run as they do not meet the sustainable resource use criterion set forth in Steger et al. (2005) (see also the discussion of “period of secure practice” as an indicator for sustainable resource use in Sect. 2.2.2). For copper, lead, manganese and nickel, the reserve-to-production rates are already below 60 years although they show different trends (see Table 5.1). The capacity which could theoretically be realised if the reserve-to-production ratio of other minerals, such as cobalt, lithium and vanadium, is held to be at least 60 years, is only a little less than when using the whole reserves (see Table 5.20). The numbers become higher if resources are assumed instead of the reserves. For example, for cobalt the “hypothetical and speculative resources” (USGS 2010) are estimated to be a factor of 150 times higher than the reserves. For vanadium, the resources represent more than about five times the reserves, for lead they are about 20 times higher, and for lithium a factor of 2.5–3 times higher (Angerer et al. 2009; Aul and Rittmeyer 2011; USGS 2010). Beside the problem of absolute scarcity, relative scarcity, which could occur due to resource politics, has to be considered. Section 5.7.3.2 shows that reserves of cobalt and lithium are concentrated in only a few countries. The rough calculations in this section show that high recycling rates of minerals will be necessary if the battery technologies are to be intensively used over long time periods. Additionally, alternative options for batteries confronted by only limited or no restrictions in the availability of minerals should be further analysed.

5.7.4

System Characteristics Relevant for Society

Aside from environmental effects and resource use, following the discussed indicators in Sect. 2.2, further relevant aspects are system characteristics of

8

This depends on the amount of cobalt required for the specific type of Li-ion battery.

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technologies, which can be subdivided into supply reliability, risk avoidance and openness of options. A more detailed look at these categories reveals that they are not distinct to environmental and resource aspects but include these partly, for instance risks from environmental pollution are included in the category “risk avoidance”. Therefore, the results from the previous two sections will be discussed here in the context of further important societal aspects. Furthermore, results from other analyses in the study are picked up to discuss the performance of the analysed technologies with respect to the indicators. Although the basis for the indicators here can be, and partly are, quantitative assessments, the indicators are discussed qualitatively.

5.7.4.1 Supply Reliability Following the indicators derived in Sect. 2.2.3, the first aspect of system characteristics is supply reliability. However, several facets have to be distinguished. The first facet is breakdown and quality of supply. The central task of storage systems and all balancing strategies is that the temporal availability of electricity and quality of supply increases with their application. In order to assure this, the diverse technologies applied have to fit to the specific tasks. Potentials and differences in technologies in this respect can be found in Sects. 5.1–5.5 and particularly in Tables 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3, where storage and supply systems are discussed with respect to their typical energy and power characteristics. The energy characteristic indicates how much energy ideally is gathered and provided by the system, comprising energy density and amount as well as relevant storage losses. The power characteristic focuses on how much energy can be provided per time unit, i.e., how fast energy can be gathered or provided. The ratio of energy to power gives the typical time scale on which the system can be employed. This discussion shows that the applicability of the individual technologies is highly dependent on the energy system’s needs. Therefore, in Sect. 4.2, in the pan-European modelling, two typical storage technologies are assumed: a long-term storage and a short-term storage. Furthermore, the system of storage or supply itself has to be reliable. This requires that sufficient redundancy is implemented in the case of failure. This aspect becomes all the more important the larger the system is in total. In modular systems, such as a bundle of single batteries, individual elements can be shut down and repaired when they fail operationally, as they represent only a minor part of an entire system. This is different with central, non-modular systems, which use, for example, large gas turbine units. Occasionally these have to be taken from the grid completely. Thus, in order to assure redundancy they require large backup units in the system. The second facet of reliability of supply is diversity. The diversity of technologies that can be used for the energy supply and distribution is definitely increasing with storage systems, although they support the restructuring of the total system from fossil to renewable energies. The degree of diversity in an energy system is strongly related to import dependence. The more diverse the system is, the less susceptible it is to resource shortages and respective increases in price. The most important resources in the

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energy area are the fuels required to run the power plants. However, the alternative technologies for balancing energy and power, such as storage systems, are aimed at reducing the use of those fossil energy sources. In this respect, therefore, all alternative storage technologies have to be evaluated positively. However, energy import dependencies will still remain with large central systems that efficiently make use of optimal energy fluxes or topological characteristics in different regions of Europe. This can be realised for example, by an over-installation of wind power in coastal regions, centralised solar power plants with thermal storage capabilities in southern Europe or large hydropower plants in the fjords of northern Europe. In such cases either electricity lines or other chemical fuels such as gases (e.g., biogas and hydrogen) will have to be transferred from the conversion plant to the consumer. Another aspect concerns mineral resources required for the production of facilities. In the analysis of resource availability, it was shown that some resources could become critical so that the prices may increase due to relative or absolute scarcity. Thus, the price of resources could strongly increase in absolute terms or, for example, due to resource politics in the country of origin, be available only for domestic production, so that producers in Europe could have problems staying competitive. This could be a particularly serious problem with respect to producers in countries that have free access to resources. Technological diversity has the advantage that alternative technologies can be used when technologies that were seen as especially hopeful prove less promising than expected. In designing economic and legal framework conditions, all promising alternatives should be given a chance. Alternatives that turn out to perform badly should be forced from the system. A further aspect of supply reliability is fair and affordable access. With the possibilities for individuals to adjust their own demand to the supply through participating in demand-side management programmes, everybody can participate individually. System advantages generated by these contributions will prospectively be refunded to the participants via lower payments compared to the regular tariff. In addition to adjusting demand, individuals can in principle operate their own storage systems. Usable storage potentials already exist for some private homes in the form of combined heat and power plants. Stored heat can be used in such systems to temporally postpone electricity production from heat usage. Further interesting opportunities to contribute to the shortage of storage potential in the system could include batteries in cars, especially electric vehicles, as well as stationary batteries for storing electricity from decentralised photovoltaic. As long as the difference between the price paid by the consumer for electricity to the energy supplier and the extra costs paid for the storage system broken down to the energy produced is positive, using such systems to satisfy personal electricity demand can be competitive. With stationary batteries, this consideration is particularly relevant if a photovoltaic system is already installed and subsidies have been phased out. The extra batteries can, through a kind of double use, additionally be applied for stabilising the electricity system. Potential support for storage operations is discussed in Chap. 7. Regulations that may

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hamper the use of storage systems for the stabilisation of the electricity supply are discussed in Chap. 8. Also relevant in terms of supply reliability are options for participation. Particularly in the area of decentralised storage systems, participation in and co-determination of the electricity supply system will prospectively be possible without major effort. As already discussed above, a basic option is to participate via demand-side management, for example, by applying smart meters at home. In addition to adjusting demand, the systems with potential double use, such as batteries in electric vehicles and for photovoltaic plants, could represent the best opportunities for citizens to contribute to balancing the electricity system. This depends, however, on the contractual situation with the energy supplier, especially with respect to electric cars. Contractual constructions can be designed which could consider benefits receivable by contributing to balancing out electricity supply and demand.

5.7.4.2 Risk Avoidance In the area of risk avoidance, a distinction between technical and environmental risks needs to be made. With respect to technical risks, it is obvious from the descriptions of the technologies that the field of options usable for storing energy in order to support the electricity supply is very wide and heterogeneous. Therefore, a general statement covering all kinds of technological risks cannot be made. Many technologies that are currently available are in an early stage of development. Systems in which energy is stored require protective arrangements to ensure that the energy cannot be released suddenly and in an uncontrolled fashion. In order to be able to obtain public confidence and acceptance, it is essential that high priority is given to designing storage facilities in such a way that technical risks with a high potential for damage are practically eliminated. Furthermore, existing technical risks, including in the production chain, are to be minimised. As can be seen from the analysis of environmental impacts, the most important environmental risks related to storage technologies are characterised as those where damage potentials are low, but many people are concerned. These have been discussed to a large extent in the section about environmental effects of technologies. However, special ecosystem risks can be observed, relating to acidification and eutrophication. Problems for the global environment can also be associated with ecotoxicity. With respect to the major aim of this study – finding means for implementing technologies for balancing electricity supply and demand – the analysed technologies perform well in comparison with options of using natural gas in turbines and combined combustion plants, even if carbon is captured and stored. 5.7.4.3 Openness to Options Implementing balancing strategies increases the options for a future electricity supply. In order to ensure maximum openness for options, the system transformation has to be structured in such a way that the development and implementation of

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promising existing and new technologies are not hampered. Thus, research funding should be oriented at the system services provided and not at specific technologies.

5.7.5

Conclusions on the Future Viability of Various Approaches to Energy Storage

The results of the analysis show that through a high penetration of renewable energies in the electricity sector and positive developments in electricity production processes, the construction of storage facility installations gains in importance in relation to improving air pollution levels, climate change mitigation and resource shortages. With the introduction of an electricity system run largely on renewable electricity, the problem of the high greenhouse gas emissions of the current system would be largely solved. With system change, however, it is important to realise that the protection of critical ecosystems could gain in importance. Beyond improvements in production processes, particularly related to the provision of minerals, the recycling of minerals will be important to prevent problems associated with the development of the analysed auxiliary technologies and other highly developed technologies. The reader should be aware that the analysis is only a rough screening of some currently available technologies in relation to a projected future production system. Thus, resource use questions and environmental impacts related to the new energy technologies need to be analysed in more detail on the basis of the life cycle data in further studies. Calculations need to be extended in order to cover more options for technological storage and network extension options. Table 5.21 shows the summary of results from the analysis.

5.8

Summary and Conclusions

A large variety of technologies can be applied for balancing energy and power in the electricity system. It could be shown that a characterisation considering the following aspects can provide an overview of different options: – Type and location of the storage systems, – The duration and frequency of supply and – Input and output type of energy. Given that the stages of technological development vary, further technological development may significantly change the appraisal of which technologies appear promising for fulfilling different tasks. Based on current cost levels and anticipated cost reductions in the next years, the following can be concluded: – For long-term storage, hydrogen could benefit from low volume related costs (about 10 €ct/kWh achievable) compared to compressed air energy storages (CAES) (about 23 €ct/kWh achievable), whereas pumped hydro is much less expensive per kWh stored (less than 5 €ct/kWh achievable), but the technical potentials of appropriate sites is limited in Germany. The potential for hydrogen storage is high. Using today’s natural gas storage systems for hydrogen would

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Table 5.21 Summary of the evaluation of the future viability of balancing technologies Indicator Evaluationa Resource Ratio of available reserves Reserves-to-production ratio smaller availability to production – height than 60 years (period required for system and stability of “period of switch): antimony, chromium, tin, zinc, secure practice” arsenic, lead, cadmium, copper, zircon oxide, nickel and manganese Decreasing reserves-to-production ratio: yttrium, iron, tin, manganese, bauxite, antimony, cobalt, vanadium, lead, platinum group metals, cadmium, zinc Amount of material required Using the entire worldwide reserves, for production of technologies batteries with a capacity of about 4.9–6.6 TWhel or, if less cobalt is used in lithium-ion batteries, 36 TWhel could theoretically be realised. This is about 2–3 times or, using lithium-ion batteries with less cobalt content, 20 times the estimated capacity required for balancing the energy system in Germany in 2040þ. Considering resources instead of reserves allows higher capacities. Using the reserves so that reserve-toproduction ratios of at least 60 years are assured, which is currently only possible for cobalt, iron, lithium and vanadium, the theoretical capacities decrease only slightly. The highest relevant change results for cobalt, which decreases by a factor of 2.3 Resources-to-production ratio below 100 Amount of reserve baseb years: antimony, arsenic, tin, chromium, zinc, lead, zircon oxide, cadmium, copper, yttrium, nickel Price changes Price increase from 2001 to 2006 >300%: cadmium, nickel, zinc, copper Regional concentration of reserve Two countries >70%: platinum group occurrences metals, chromium, lithium, vanadium, cobalt Regional concentration of Two countries >70%: yttrium (China: delivery and revenues 99%), platinum, palladium (Russia: 44%), zircon oxide (continued)

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Table 5.21 (continued) Indicator Environmental Environmental external social costs effects per kWh provided of today’s technologies in the 2050 system (human health, crop losses, material damage, loss of biodiversity)

Categories of environmental impacts following CML 2001 valuation scheme

Characteristics of the energy supply system

Supply reliability – breakdown and quality Supply reliability – diversity

Supply reliability – fair and affordable access

Supply reliability – participation

Risk avoidance – technical risks

Evaluationa Low for lithium-ion batteries, pumped hydro, electrolyser for hydrogen storage and for photovoltaic and wind with large amounts of full load hours, which may change with less utilisation at overinstallation High for battery technologies such as NiMH and lead-acid and gas technologies, even if combined cycle with CCS Values for all, except for gas CC CCS and pumped hydro in non-alpine regions, dominated by effects of SO2 Best performance: pumped hydro, electrolyser Lithium-ion batteries similar to electrolyser, but worse in eutrophication and fresh water aquatic ecotoxicity Lead-acid batteries: bad in acidification, fresh water aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity, photochemical oxidation Photovoltaics (PV) and wind: high effects in marine aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity, (eutrophication: only PV multi-crystalline-Si, Central Europe) Gas technologies: dominating abiotic depletion, ozone layer depletion, global warming, high values in human toxicity, photochemical oxidation, terrestrial ecotoxicity, acidification The quality of supply will rise if the right technologies are applied, because this is a major task of the technologies assessed With the analysed technologies, new options enter the market and diversity increases Provided that regulations are designed respectively and respective business models are implemented, access via demand-side management and potential installation and use of decentralised storage units will prospectively be fair and affordable Participation of individuals will prospectively even be asked for in order to realise all potentials Protective measures have to be implemented so that sudden and uncontrolled releases of the stored energy leading to unacceptable impacts are (continued)

5.8

Summary and Conclusions

Table 5.21 (continued) Indicator

Risk avoidance – marginal environmental risks

Risk avoidance – risks with potentially unacceptable impacts

Open for alternative options

a b

141

Evaluationa practically eliminated. Further concessions may be necessary to obtain the acceptance of the local population The options lithium-ion battery, pumped hydro, hydrogen storage (only electrolyser analysed) and additional photovoltaic or wind offshore plants with high utilisation perform well In comparison to the other technologies, particularly pumped hydro plants, electrolysers for hydrogen storage, additional photovoltaic (cadmium telluride in southern Europe) and wind power plants perform well Generally increasing with the technologies if the funding is open for all alternatives

Materials are listed in order of decreasing importance In 2008

result in about 35 TWh of extra available electrical power. Another possibility would be to implement high storage capacities in other European countries such as Norway or Sweden with higher potentials and then import electricity when needed. – For load levelling, pumped hydro plants can also be used, but compressed air storage, especially adiabatic concepts, could become an interesting alternative (both less than 5 €ct/kWh achievable). Batteries can also be used for load levelling, although they are more expensive than CAES, and pumped hydro with 8–12 €ct/kWh achievable. They can, however, additionally deliver primary reserve. – For peak shaving in distribution grids various battery systems are in competition with each other. Assuming the best prognosis, sodium-sulphur (NaS) technologies lead with less than 5 €ct/kWh. They have been commercially in operation for several years in Japan. Today, lead-acid systems are still the most economic systems. Double-use storage potential and demand-side management for the control of industrial loads, heat pumps and white goods will be important. In addition, electric vehicles and CHP could prove very interesting in the future, with an overall theoretical potential of providing 16–23 GW of storage power. Considering user acceptance, the potential will decrease to about 10 GW. Demand-side management (DSM) is thus an option which will contribute to energy balancing, although the estimated economic benefits of 18 € per household and year are small. Beside storage options and managing peak demand, the possibility of shutting down wind and solar power plants has to be addressed. In an energy system with

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a high share of renewable energies it will be absolutely necessary to have this option available. It is not only necessary from a technical perspective, but also from economical and legal points of view. An analysis of the future viability of different storage systems reveals that it is necessary to take a closer look at the production processes, which could lead to high emissions of pollutants particularly when minerals are processed. The life cycle screening carried out above shows for instance high impacts for NiMH batteries due to high SO2 emissions in the nickel production process. In contrast, Li-ion batteries performed quite well. These emissions will prospectively gain importance because the level of CO2 emissions will already be very low. Resource availability and use of mineral resources must be taken into consideration. In batteries and some other relevant technologies, materials are used that are not sustainable from a reserve-toproduction ratio perspective. Also, materials are being used that are regionally highly concentrated, at levels of approximately 70% of known reserves in only two countries. Others being used have high absolute market prices or have experienced relatively high price increases. Of the analysed materials, titanium is unproblematic. There are currently only a few problems associated with lithium, vanadium, arsenic, nickel and zircon oxide. A large-scale use of lithium type, lead-acid and vanadium batteries, however, will require high recycling rates and potentially in the long run, the use of substitutes. With respect to system characteristics, particularly small modular systems are relatively positively evaluated. Large central nonmodular technologies, especially when located outside the country, could result in import dependencies and require large efforts to reach sufficient redundancy. They could also be faced with acceptance problems, given public opposition to the large-scale infrastructure development (e.g., grid structures) that could occur. As discussed in Sect. 2.3.2, system change will require participatory decision-making processes if the population is to be won over to the need for change. Furthermore, measures should be implemented to reduce technical risks of sudden uncontrolled releases of power. The development of an electricity system based on a high share of renewable energies will require a mixture of technologies to be able to balance supply and demand needs. Technological improvements and new technologies will be needed. For this, technology neutral funding schemes will be necessary so that no promising options are hampered by lack of sufficient funding.

6

Technology of Electricity Networks and Economical Impacts

Installing energy storage facilities is one important aspect of an electricity system supplied to a large extent from renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Another is the electricity networks, which have to be adjusted to fit the new requirements of a system with greater fluctuations in energy supply and demand. This chapter first turns to an analysis of the requirements associated with load control in the distribution grid (Sect. 6.1.1) and the integration of renewable energy and storage facilities into the transmission grid (Sect. 6.1.2). Next, the chapter looks at the costs of an adequate expansion of the network for the distribution grid (Sect. 6.2.1) and the transmission grid (Sect. 6.2.2).

6.1

Assessment of Technical Barriers Considering the Total System Including Network Requirements

6.1.1

Interaction of Load Control with the Distribution Network

In the following section, the interactions between the distribution network and load control are discussed. The question is to what extent the distribution networks act as restrictions to the extensive use of measures for load control (DSM) to provide balancing power. A central focus of attention is the extent to which DSM can be used in households and which measures are necessary in order to use DSM optimally. In order to achieve a very high quantity of renewable energy sources in the future, both the requirements of centralised and decentralised electricity provision will need to be examined. From a global point of view, the loads need to be adapted, due to the fluctuating provision of electricity, in such a manner that as little balancing requirement as possible is needed, i.e., that the residual load is smoothed. This load shift is limited by the technical restrictions of the distribution network operation. The increase in decentralised energy conversion plants (DECP) in the distribution network represents an additional challenge for network users in terms of the planning and operation of distribution networks. The operation of DECPs can lead B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_6, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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to changes in the area of power flows and equipment loading, voltage retention and available short-circuit power. Load management measures can be used to smooth the distribution network utilisation and thus avoid the need for network expansion. Yet, on a total system level, this application may be in conflict with the smoothing of the residual load. An economic and technical consideration of both applications has to take place in each case. Figure 6.1 shows this situation. On a house connection level, a load-controlling entity (aggregator) intervenes in the load behaviour. This aggregator can provide the shifting potential to the electricity market for covering the residual load or to the network user for network relief. These two possibilities may conflict with each other. The operation of decentralised energy conversion plants leads to upstream network levels being relieved due to the feed-in of electrical power near the load. The relief of the upstream network levels reaches its maximum if the decentralised energy conversion plants cover the exact active and reactive power requirement of the consumers in their network area. However, if much more power is fed into the network by the decentralised energy conversion plants than is required by the consumers of a distribution network, reverse feeding into upstream network levels takes place. The permissible equipment loading of transformers, which connect different network levels, can be exceeded due to the reverse feeding. If fluctuating generators arise frequently in a network region with a low load density, this may lead to the reversal of power flows or reverse feed and to the

Fig. 6.1 Aggregation of consumer loads and distributed generation for use in the market and network

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overloading of equipment. The network connection of high-power PV plants and the repowering of wind power stations in rural networks in particular can cause a reversal of power flows and probably an overloading of equipment. Thus, electrical distribution networks must be dimensioned in such a way that no equipment overloading occurs both during the operation and non-operation of all fluctuating generators. In this sense, the operational behaviour of fluctuating generators, which is uncoordinated and difficult to predict, requires a stronger distribution network dimensioning. The boundaries of the network load are determined by the thermal capacities of the network elements as well as by the voltage retention. Operating fluctuating generators in strong load times can represent a contribution to voltage support. On the other hand, a local voltage increase is caused by the operation of fluctuating generators in light load periods, meaning that exceeding the limit values of DIN EN 50160 of
10% (stationary case) is possible for the rated voltage. In order to reduce the undesired influence of the DECP on the voltage retention, a contribution to static voltage retention is demanded from the DECP by the directive on the parallel operation of generation plants on the medium-voltage network (MV network). In order to improve voltage retention at the consumer location, the use of adjustable local area network transformers, intermediate transformers and compensation plants such as static var compensators (SVC) or switchable capacities is possible. The transition from open to closed rings and the use of house connection boxes (HCB) with an uninterrupted power supply device (UPS device) are also strategies for optimising the voltage band in the case of a high proportion of fluctuating generators. Unlike voltage retention, thermal loading results from the power flow in a network district alone. Uncoordinated load behaviour was assumed in the planning of today’s distribution networks. The behaviour of uncoordinated consumers without DSM can be described purely stochastically and results in typical average daily load curves. From a distribution network point of view, the relevant value is the maximum simultaneity of the consumption behaviour. The maximum simultaneity of the subordinate loads is to be considered for dimensioning the equipment in particular. A high simultaneity that would not be reached in uncoordinated operation can be reached with DSM due to the influence on the temporal behaviour of loads. A high load simultaneity leads to high power flows in the distribution network, which in turn can lead to the maximum permissible equipment loading being exceeded and to the voltage band being breached (DIN EN 50160). In order to examine the interaction between DSM and the network, the sensitivity of the equipment loading and of the voltage retention with regard to the proportion of DSM housing units (HU) and the proportion of controllable loads (CL) in DSM-HUs is to be investigated. In order to investigate the effects of DSM on the operating condition of distribution networks, a typical configuration of a current distribution network is modelled. The proportion of housing units with DSM is gradually increased in order to evaluate the effects of DSM on the equipment loading and voltage retention. Moreover, the proportion of the loads that can be controlled within a DSM-HU is varied also.

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By varying the number of MV or LV strands and the number of local network stations (LNS) or house connections per strand, individual specifics of real urban and rural networks can be shown. Urban networks have a higher number of strands and a higher load density than rural networks. At the same time, the individual strands in rural networks are much longer than in urban networks. Table 6.1 represents the rated power of the equipment and the number of subordinate HU for a typical configuration of the distribution network. The available proportion of the rated power of the equipment per HU goes down as higher voltage levels are approached. The values are to be seen in relation to a housing unit connection power of 30 kW (corresponding to 33.3 kVA in the case of a fuse power of 43 kVA). The stochastic behaviour of the consumers is shown without DSM by the simultaneity function g(n). The parameters of the simultaneity function in relation to the number of HU are defined with g1 ¼ 0.028 and x ¼ 0.75 and are secured by measured values of distribution network operators. g(n) ¼ g1 þ

1  g1 nx

(6.1)

Thus the maximum simultaneity g(n) can be determined for the n consumers, which are subordinate to an item of equipment. The course of the function g(n) is represented in Fig. 6.2 as a function of the housing units looked at. A simultaneity of one is assumed for loads with DSM. This means that all DSM loads are switched on at the same time in extreme cases, if a superordinate signal calls for this. Table 6.1 Configuration of a typical distribution network HV/MV transformer MV cable Rated power 40 MVA 5.8 MVA Number of subordinate HU 25,000 2,500 Rated power/HU 1.6 kVA 2.3 kVA Loads without DSM

MV/LV transformer 630 kVA 150 4.2 kVA

LV cable 190 kVA 25 7.6 kVA

Loads with DSM

Simultaneity [pu]

1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0

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10

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Fig. 6.2 Simultaneity function for loads with and without DSM

35

40

45

50

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The power contribution of a HU results from the product of the network connection capacity (NCC) and g(n). The network connection capacity of a HU amounts to 30 kW. The power contribution can be determined separately for HUs with and without DSM. The different power contributions are weighted according to the proportion of DSM-HUs in the distribution network. The loading of the different equipment and the voltage retention as a function of the proportion of DSM-HU and of the proportion of controllable loads (CL) in DSM-HUs are examined in the following. The maximum permissible load is 100% for LV cables and MV/LV transformers. For MV cables, the maximum permissible load in operation is at 60% due to the open ring operation of MV cable lines, so that a load of 120% is not exceeded in the event of a fault. The (n1) security is achieved for the high-voltage/medium-voltage (HV/MV) transformer by a parallel HV/MV transformer. The maximum permissible load of a HV/MV transformer in normal operation is 80%, meaning that the transformer still in operation is loaded with a maximum of 160% if one transformer fails. The lower voltage limit for the LV customer amounts to 0.9 pu.1 As the proportion of DSM-HUs rises, the maximum load of the different equipment in a distribution network rises. Moreover, the load of the equipment rises the higher the proportion of controllable loads is related to the connection power. The critical load is reached in the following order for the equipment of the modelled distribution network as the proportion of DSM-HUs rises: 1. HV/MV transformer, 2. MV cable, 3. MV/LV transformer, 4. LV cable. The order of exceeding the critical load of the different equipment is rooted in the assumption of purely stochastic customer behaviour and of the maximum expected simultaneity, which was made at the time of network planning. With a higher voltage level, a stronger mixing of temporal behaviour occurs for customers without DSM, meaning that less rated power must be held ready per customer. With the use of DSM, this assumption is no longer possible. The more the maximum simultaneity of the subordinate loads has been used at the time of dimensioning equipment, the more likely it is that the critical load limit will be exceeded when using DSM. As the proportion of DSM-HUs rises, a stronger voltage drop also occurs in the low-voltage (LV) networks. The higher the proportion of controllable loads is related to the connection power of the HU, the sooner a critical voltage drop can be achieved. In LV networks, the critical boundary of the voltage band is usually reached before the critical equipment loading as the DSM proportion rises. Thus, the maximum load of the equipment and the adherence to the voltage band in the distribution network represents a restriction for the extensive use of DSM.

1

Per unit system.

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6

Technology of Electricity Networks and Economical Impacts Proportion of controllable loads, related to 30 kW connection power CL 0%

HV Network

CL 5%

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Loading [%]

100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 120.0

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100.0

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80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 Amount of DSM-HU

Fig. 6.3 Operational limits for the proportion of DSM housing units and the proportion of controllable loads per housing unit

In Fig. 6.3, the operational limits are plotted against the proportions of housing units with DSM and to the proportion of controllable loads per housing unit for the individual network elements of a typical distribution network. For example, the HV/MV transformer is already at the loading limit, if 12.5% of the housing units show a controllable load proportion of 15% of the connection power of 30 kW, i.e., 4.5 kW. If higher DSM proportions are to be used, then the transformer must be exchanged for a larger dimensioned one. Further issues to be considered in relation to the future development of distribution networks are the influence of the strongly increasing power of electronic loads on system harmonics and the adaption of protection concepts in the distribution networks to fit changing circumstances.

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149

Distribution networks have to be capable of integrating decentralised renewable sources, adopting new loads, such as heat pumps or electric vehicles, and enabling DSM for the provision of balancing power. Under current conditions, technical boundaries will soon be reached by the associated simultaneity increase. The potential of DSM, in particular, is strongly limited in its ability by this. Distribution networks must, therefore, be dimensioned more strongly and flexibly in the long term. The coordination of generators and loads is essential in the distribution network. The utilisation of DSM and feed-in from renewable energy sources can be maximised by such coordination, without breaching the operational boundaries. For this purpose, practicable automated procedures are to be developed.

6.1.2

Transmission Network Expansion

Today’s transmission networks essentially consist of 220 and 380 kV overhead lines. High-temperature conductor ropes to increase transmission capacity, higher voltage levels (e.g., 750 kV as an overlay network), 380 kV cables, gas-insulated lines (GIL), as well as high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines, could be used as further technologies. However, there is a lack of operating experience in the meshed network for many of these technologies. Detailed information can be found in Aundrup et al. (2010). In this study, only 380 kV line expansions or HVDCs are investigated further. A 750 kV overlay network would be technically possible, but substantially higher masts, as well as the need to construct larger power supply units as opposed to individual lines, lead to less feasibility. The GIL technology is not as advanced compared to HVDC. Furthermore, it is considerably more expensive and pilot lines of a maximum of 1 km have only just been implemented. High-temperature conductor ropes are undergoing testing, but cause higher network losses and bring the network closer to stability limits. It therefore only makes sense to use this technology in individual cases. Laying 380 kV cables underground has a transmission power of up to 1,000 MVA per system, meaning that several cable systems would be necessary to replace an overhead line system. In the case of partial cabling sections, adjustments to the protective system (overvoltage protection) are required. Long lines are only possible with an additional compensation device due to the required reactive power. Only a few short lines, which do not represent a connection in the compound system, have been built on an extra high-voltage level so far. The routes are to always be kept free from deep-rooted growth. For these reasons, other studies are referred to for a detailed analysis. In the context of the present study, example network calculations have been carried out and exemplary expansion planning performed, based on the development paths defined in Chap. 2. The goal is to consider to what extent the necessity for network expansion can arise from future developments that go beyond the network expansion measures given in the Power Grid Expansion Act

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(EnLAG 2009). The expansion planning is carried out exclusively with conventional overhead lines. For the development path of the lead scenario, HVDC technology in combination with conventional overhead lines is also examined. A simplified model of the transmission network of Germany and of the directly neighbouring countries is used for the network calculations. This model represents the German transmission network using 31 nodes and approximately 50 lines (connections). The ability to identify individual real nodes and lines is lost here, although the electrical characteristics are represented in good approximation. Identified development necessities related to this network model can serve as a good point of orientation for the expansion of the real network. Of course, in the case of the real network a close consideration of actual network requirements in each specific case will be necessary. Since accurate data on the transmission network are not publicly accessible, the transmission network simulation was created using freely available data, deriving a reduced network. During the development of the reduced network, the real nodes were summarised regionally, meaning that the concentrated generation in the Rhine and Ruhr area, for example, is illustrated by two nodes. The line lengths were estimated using network maps in order to give a qualitative and representative picture of the German transmission network. Lines of the 380 kV level and selected lines of the 220 kV level relevant for power transport in a north–south direction were simulated for 2008. This network was used in Waniek et al. (2008) in order to successfully identify network bottlenecks caused by high wind feed-ins. In the context of this study, the network has been extended for a possible basic state in 2020. For this purpose, the considered 220 kV lines have been changed over to 380 kV and currently established development measures from DENA (2005) and EnLAG (2009) have been integrated into the network model. In cases where both a line changeover from 220 to 380 kV and a development measure according to DENA (2005) and EnLAG (2009) would have to take place, only one of these measures was considered. Thus, only lines of the 380 kV level are included in the basic state of the network model for 2020. In order to estimate the transmission network requirement, the two development paths of the political RES scenario and the lead scenario from Chap. 2 are taken up. The first development path (the political RES scenario) is based on the assumption that approximately 22 GW onshore and approximately 10 GW offshore wind power will be installed by 2020, and approximately 21 GW onshore and 18 GW offshore wind power will be installed by 2030. For the second development path (the lead scenario), 33 GW onshore and 9 GW offshore wind power is assumed in 2020, 36 GW onshore and 24 GW offshore wind power is assumed in 2030 and 38 GW onshore and 34 GW offshore wind power is assumed for 2040þ. As regards the load development, the two development paths show differences, which lead to an approximately 10 GW higher load for 2020 and 2030 in the political RES scenario. Table 6.2 gives an overview of the feed-in and load scenarios taken as a basis in this report. The power fed in from photovoltaic plants is set at very low values in all scenarios, since these plants are very evenly

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151

Table 6.2 Assumed installed and fed-in capacities of the individual scenarios [MW] Scenario 2008 Political RES 2020 Political RES 2030 Lead scenario 2020 Lead scenario 2030 Lead scenario 2040þ

Load DE

85,389 88,394 87,403 74,634 72,555 83,544

Wind DE Onshore Installed 19,019 21,613 21,436 32,940 35,870 38,000

PV DE Fed-in 15,215 17,290 17,149 26,352 28,696 30,400

Offshore Installed 3,225 9,641 17,579 9,000 23,800 33,500

Fed-in 2,902 8,677 15,821 8,100 21,420 26,800

Table 6.3 Assumed country balances according to ENTSO-E (2009) [MW]a NL BE FR PL CZ AT CH 2008 1,477 1,924 4,283 0 1,116 357 394 Political RES 2020 1,477 1,924 4,283 0 1,116 357 394 Political RES 2030 1,477 1,924 4,283 0 1,116 357 394 Lead scenario 2020 1,477 1,924 4,283 0 1,116 357 394 Lead scenario 2030 1,477 1,924 6,926 0 1,805 357 394 Lead scenario 2040 1,477 1,924 6,926 0 1,805 357 394 a

Installed 5,936 10,851 8,318 23,160 28,350 30,500

DK_W 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,173 1,897 1,897

ES 300 300 300 300 485 485

Fed-in 118 217 166 463 567 610

IT 6,960 6,960 6,960 6,960 6,960 6,960

Positive: Importation to Germany, negative: exportation from Germany

distributed over all network nodes and thus have a reducing effect for the load. Energy storage systems are not considered in any scenario, since no assumptions can be made as to their locations. An installation in the north would regionally correlate with the wind locations and would therefore avoid additional transmission network capacities to the south. Locations in the south would stress the network additionally. Additional network expansions would be necessary for locations outside of Germany. In order to realistically illustrate the influences of transborder power flows on the German transmission network, the winter 2008/2009 reference case defined by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) for the European aggregated traded exchange of electrical power was used as a starting point for the load scenarios created. This assumption results in a rough estimate, because future scenarios are strongly dependent on international electricity exchange and cross-border transfer of renewable energies. Therefore, these values can only be seen as initial assumptions. The exchange of electrical power was netted to country balances and evenly distributed over the respective nodes. The resulting power flows, based on this modelling, are superposed with the German domestic power transport on the basis of a market model. The set power balances of the countries are shown in Table 6.3. On the basis of the network state of 2020, expansions necessary for the two development scenarios are carried out, based on the exclusive use of 380 kV overhead lines of type 265/35-Al/St, and in combination with selected HVDC lines. The network is dimensioned on the basis of the (n2) criterion. This corresponds to the

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situation where, during maintenance of a network-forming piece of equipment, a further piece of equipment fails due to a fault. The operating state of the network is also determined in the (n2) case using the optimal load flow. Using the optimal load flow here allows for interventions by the network management personnel. The determined necessary route or line lengths of the individual expansion variants are not directly comparable with the real network, although they can be compared generally with one another and give a good indication for the new building of lines over a large area. When determining the route lengths, it is assumed that a three-phase line can take up a maximum of two electric circuits. With regard to HVDCs, this corresponds to carrying two bipolar systems in a route. For the exclusive expansion with conventional overhead lines, overloaded lines are supplemented with further systems in the (n2) case. In the case of lines running parallel, additional systems have been supplemented for the shorter stretch. Figure 6.4 shows an example of the expansions for the lead scenarios. Table 6.4 shows the associated route lengths for all scenarios. The new building of up to approximately 3,000 km route length in total is necessary for 2040, which would strengthen the network, mainly in the north–south direction. In addition to the purely conventional expansion, an expansion with HVDC has also been carried out for the development path of the lead scenario. This development path can be understood as a reference scenario, since expansion measures and expansion costs must be considered if the expansion of the network is preferably to be implemented with HVDC. A line-commutated bipole with a rated voltage of
500 kV and a total transmission power of 3,000 MW is used as a HVDC connection. In the (n1) fault case, it is assumed that only one pole of the bipolar transmission line is affected and therefore that the remaining pole can continue to be operated with half the transmission power. Figure 6.5 shows the necessary network expansions for 2020, 2030 and 2040. Table 6.5 shows the associated route lengths for the lead scenario. In summary, the following can be said: A. The results of the expansion scenarios estimate a long-term new building of lines of approximately 3,000 km or more, in order to handle the regional shifting of feed-in associated with substantial offshore expansion. Since the scenario assumes typical averaged days (type days) and cuts extreme values, line demand is estimated to be able to carry up to 70% of the maximum installed wind capacity. Rare extremes in wind production would have to be curtailed. Furthermore, the base case scenario for power exchange with the neighbouring countries assumes a moderate power flow over their borders. For future scenarios, these values might be much higher and much more volatile, resulting in additional line demand. Both of these aspects explain the drastic difference with the results of the DENA II-study (DENA 2011), a difference resulting in the need for 3,500 km additional lines by 2020. That study assumes that the network has to cope with all extreme market, renewable and exchange conditions without any restrictions, even if these situations are very seldom.

6.1

Assessment of Technical Barriers Considering the Total System

153

1 4

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2

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Fig. 6.4 Necessary expansion measures for the development path of the lead scenario

B. The import of renewable energy from Europe, as well as balancing with neighbouring countries or the use of storage capacities outside Germany, require further network expansion, which has not yet been considered here but which is to be evaluated separately in relation to balancing technology options.

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Table 6.4 Necessary route lengths of the expansions Scenario Political RES 2020 Political RES 2030 Lead scenario 2020 Lead scenario 2030 Lead scenario 2040þ

System length Total 2,175 2,555 1,800 3,455 4,370

Line length Single system 915 985 640 665 1,280

Double system 630 785 580 1,395 1,545

This study concentrates mainly on Germany. Balancing technologies with locations outside Germany involves considering explicitly the additional network demand in comparison to technologies inside Germany. Assuming HVDC transmission, the pan-European simulation discussed in Sect. 4.2 shows potential realisations considering exchange with neighbouring countries as one option. C. Technically speaking, expansion measures with conventional overhead lines and HVDCs are the most obvious solution, which consider both the progressive technical feasibility and the stability and operational reliability of the electricity transmission network in equal measure. Beyond this study, HVDC overlay networks are a future solution under discussion. For such an approach, several technical questions have to be solved. China’s approach, with 800 kV HVDC linked up to 6.4 GW transmission capacity, is not a solution for Europe. Such technologies would require a complete rearrangement of the European power system in terms of structure and control. Such a discussion would go beyond the scope of this study, which focuses on balancing strategies for an electricity system with a high percentage of renewable energy input.

6.2

Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities at the Daily and Seasonal Scales

6.2.1

Distribution Network Requirements for Avoiding Restrictions

The extensive use of demand-side management for integrating fluctuating generation plants into the total electrical power supply system is limited by the restrictions of the distribution network. If a critical operating state is reached due to DSM, network reinforcement measures are necessary. The costs incurred by network reinforcement measures must be balanced with the economic yields of DSM. The following questions must be answered first in order to make this possible: – How high are the costs for network reinforcement measures per HU? – How are the costs affected by the proportion of DSM-HUs? – Are there alternatives to conventional network reinforcement measures? The costs of the various equipment in distribution networks are specified in Table 6.6, as an absolute value and as costs per HU. The costs of the necessary

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Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities at the Daily and Seasonal Scales

155

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Number of parallel systems

Fig. 6.5 Necessary expansion measures for the lead scenario using HVDC

switchboard sections are also considered in the costs of the HV/MV transformer. The costs of the MV and LV cables include material and civil engineering costs. In order to determine the cable costs per HU, it is assumed for the MV cables that neighbouring LNS are connected via a 500 m long MV cable, and that each LNS

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Table 6.5 Necessary route lengths of the expansions Scenario

System length [km]

Lead scenario 2020 2,135 Lead scenario 2030 3,405 Lead scenario 2040þ 4,715 a

Route length [km] Three-phase current Single system Double system 220 360 530 515 760 695

HVDC 1 – bipole 1,195 1,845 1,125

2 – bipoles 0 0 720a

Additional roping on existing linkage. No new route necessary

Table 6.6 Costs of equipment in the distribution network (Source: Consentec GmbH et al. 2006) HV/MV transformer MV cable MV/LV transformer LV cable Costs 580,000 € 52 €/m 22,000 € 45 €/m Costs/HU 23 € 173 € 147 € 900 €

supplies 150 customers. A length of 20 m is set for the LV cable sections between the individual HUs. Since a high number of HUs (2,000) is subordinate to the HV/MV transformer, the costs for this piece of equipment per HU are the lowest. The costs of the MV/LV transformer and the MV cable per HU turn out higher, despite lower absolute costs, due to the low number of subordinate HUs. The highest costs per HU arise in the distribution network for the LV cable, since only one HU is supplied via a cable section in many cases. The costs of the necessary network reinforcement measures can be determined taking the model network analyses carried out before into consideration. Figure 6.6 shows the costs resulting per HU for network reinforcement measures as a function of the DSM proportion and the proportion of controllable loads in DSM-HUs. In the case of a low penetration of DSM-HU or of a low proportion of controllable loads in DSM-HUs, no costs arise for network reinforcement measures in the distribution network. If the proportion of DSM-HUs in distribution networks rises, network reinforcement measures become necessary for the HV/MV transformers and the MV cables. If the incurred costs are divided among all subordinate HUs, investment costs of 196 € are apportioned to each HU. If the proportion of DSM-HU is increased further, further network reinforcement measures become necessary due to the voltage retention in the low-voltage network (LV network). Since only a few HUs are subordinate to the individual LV cable sections, considerable costs per HU arise. A further increase of the DSM proportion would make reinforcement measures necessary for MV/LV transformers, meaning the costs per HU would continue to be increased. The demand for network reinforcement is also driven by the increasing number of distributed generation units, and especially PV-panels. From these units there will also be additional network demand in the future. How large this effect will be in comparison to the DSM demand cannot be judged.

6.2

Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities at the Daily and Seasonal Scales

157

5,000

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CL 10% CL 15%

3,000

CL 20% 2,000 CL 25% 1,000 0 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Amount of DSM-HU

Fig. 6.6 Investment costs for network reinforcement measures per HU as a function of the DSM proportion and the proportion of controllable loads in DSM-HUs (CL controllable load)

Since the at times high investment costs for network reinforcement measures can call the economic efficiency of DSM into question, innovative measures must be considered to avoid conventional network reinforcement measures. First and foremost, decentralised limits must be determined, as far as possible, for the DSM and its load peaks due to high consumer simultaneity. In the future, therefore, a compromise will have to be made between the benefits of consumer control and the necessity of network expansion. Approaches for purely decentralised coordination have already been investigated in Wedde et al. (2008) and Krause (2009). A completely distributed approach, using a multi-agent system, coordinates the decentralised plants and maximises their economic use at the same time that the boundary conditions of the network are being complied with. This approach is particularly suitable in the case where there is a very large number of feeders controllable from a decentralised point, loads and storage facilities. Such an approach can ensure that the maximum operational flexibility of the plants, storage systems and loads is ensured over the course both of a day and a year, and that economic efficiency can be increased as a result. At the same time however, complying with the restrictions of the network is ensured in extreme cases. Such coordination is necessary in practice in the long term in order to obtain an economic balance between additional network expansion and flexibility utilisation. In conclusion, the demand for networks to enable the potential of DSM is quite high. The investment costs per household, therefore, cannot be neglected. New loads and distributed generation place stresses on the distribution networks. Therefore, network reinforcement will be unavoidable in the future. Coordination schemes are under investigation, but if the network limitations restrict the applicability of DSM for balancing, its potential will decrease drastically.

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6.2.2

Technology of Electricity Networks and Economical Impacts

Effects of the Transmission Network Expansion Measures

In this section, the costs for the transmission network extension shall be estimated. The route lengths necessary for the individual years and development paths (see Sect. 6.1.2) are summarised in Fig. 6.7. It is assumed that a route can take up two electric circuits/systems. This corresponds to a classic tower configuration. It can be seen that, with regard to the conventional expansion for the lead scenario for 2020, a smaller line expansion is necessary compared to the political RES scenario for the same year. This difference is caused significantly by the higher total load of approximately 10 GW in the political RES scenario. The higher feed-in power of onshore wind energy plants (approximately 10 GW more) in the lead scenario has no significant influence due to a relatively even distribution. The line expansion to be expected rises for the years 2030 for both development paths. In the development path of the political RES scenario, only a few systems are added in the south of Germany, yet in the development path of the lead scenario nearly all north–south connections are affected. The necessary expansion for the development path of the lead scenario also rises again to all north–south connections for the period 2040þ. When comparing the conventional expansion with the HVDC expansion in the expansion path regarding the lead scenario, it can be seen that the added route length in three-phase current technology is much shorter for all years, yet this advantage is more than counterbalanced by the necessary addition of approximately 1,800 km route length in direct current technology. The total addition (2040þ) in the HVDC scenario is even more extensive, with approximately 3,200 km route length, than the route addition of approximately 2,800 km for the conventional expansion. The reason for this is rooted in the fact that in the case of network 3,500 HVDC overhead 2 bipoles 3,000

Route length [km]

2,500 2,000

720

HVDC overhead line 1 bipole Double system Single system 1845

1,500

785

630 1,000

625

580 915

0 political RES scenario 2020

640

290 220

lead scenario 2020

1125

1395

1195 445

500

1545

985

political RES scenario 2030

Fig. 6.7 Necessary route lengths of the individual scenarios

665

530

lead scenario 2030

1280 760 lead scenario 2040+

6.2

Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities at the Daily and Seasonal Scales

159

expansion with HVDC, the feed-in centres in the north of Germany in particular are connected with the load centres in the south by long, direct DC connections. It can also be seen that even in the case of network expansion with HVDC, network reinforcement by means of conventional three-phase current technology cannot be avoided. The total investment costs for the determined route lengths are 6–8 billion € for the scenario 2040þ, depending upon the technology. The starting point for considering the anticipated investment costs is the transmission network, according to the implementation of the DENA I-study (DENA 2005) and of the expansion measures envisaged in the EnLAG (2009). The costs of dismantling overhead lines, which may be necessary when changing over existing routes, are not considered, nor are higher-than-average route acquisition costs locally. Indeed, an HVDC overhead line leads to lower investment costs than a corresponding three-phase current overhead line with two systems if there is comparable transmission power. This advantage cannot be made use of, due to distance-independent investments in the converter stations. Additional, technical advantages of network expansion using HVDC lie in the controllable, secured transport capacity parallel to the north–south main route and in the fact that the additional four HVDCs relieve the three-phase network by 12 GW active power transport altogether. This has a positive effect on the load angular distribution in the network and thus favours a stable network operation. In addition, a further meshing of the network and the associated increase in local short-circuit power are avoided by the expansion with HVDC. The associated benefit is difficult to quantify, however, and was not considered in the following considerations. Moreover, a purposeful use of cables over large distances is only possible with HVDC technology. The costs incurred in this case are not looked at closely. The necessary investment costs related to the respective wind energy feed-in each year are considered below. Imports from renewable energy are not considered here. The following assumptions apply: – Service life of overhead lines: 40 years, – Considered period: 20 years, – Residual value in 20 years: 50%, – Required rate of return: 8%. Based on these assumptions, annual annuity costs of approximately 9% of the investment costs result. Related to the annual electricity fed in from wind energy plants, additional costs per kWh fed in arise from approximately 0.2–0.35 €ct for the scenario 2040þ. If it is necessary to lay cables underground, HVDC cables or even gas-insulated conductors (GIC) have to be examined in detail, although their investment costs are more than double those of overground HVDC line-routing. In conclusion, the total line length and costs for the conventional transmission network extension under the assumptions made here are moderate in comparison to the generation costs of renewable energies. Since the acceptance of new transmission lines is the major problem, alternative technologies are required which can be developed to be available to supply the required capacity. At the moment,

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underground power transmission is almost one dimension too small in capacity for large-scale applications.

6.2.3

Conclusions on Economical Impacts of Balancing Activities

In summary, the following can be said: – In order to exploit the DSM potential, investment costs for conventional network reinforcement measures of more than 1,000 € are to be expected per household from 2020 onwards. A compromise has to be made between DSM use for the energy market and sensible distribution network investments. – Investments for the building of over 3,000 km of new line amounting to at least 6 to 8 billion € for the German transmission network are to be made in the long term (2040þ). This corresponds to a value of 0.2–0.35 €ct/kWh of feed-in from wind energy plants. Line additions for European power balancing or the import of renewable energy sources and for the development of foreign storage sites are to be looked at as well and measures assigned to these.

6.3

Summary and Conclusions

The analysis of economic effects and barriers of a high share of renewable energies in connection to balancing out supply and demand reveals that extensions are required in the distribution as well as in the transmission networks in the long term. The analysis concerning technical restrictions shows that the capacities of the distribution networks will soon be reached when DSM for the provision of balancing power is introduced. Coordination of load and generation in the distribution grid should additionally be used to maximise the utilisation of demand-side management and decentralised feed-in from renewable energy resources, without breaching the operational boundaries. For this purpose, practicable automated procedures are to be developed. However, to exploit the potential of DSM, additional costs of more than 1,000 € per household are expected from 2020 onwards while the calculated return for DSM per household amounts to about 18 € per household and year (see Sect. 5.3.3.2). In order to cope with the regional shifting of feed-in towards substantial offshore expansion, transmission lines have to be significantly extended. The result of the calculations in this study is that an extension of approximately 3,000 km or even more is needed in the long run. However, as specific typical days (type days) are used in the calculations, the network will be dimensioned to handle about 70% of the maximum installed wind capacity. In rare extremes, wind power will have to be curtailed. Furthermore, the power exchange with neighbours is limited to moderate flows. Extensive import of electricity from renewables or storage facilities outside Germany is not considered. This will require further estimations, similar to the

6.3

Summary and Conclusions

161

simulations in Sect. 4.2, but with greater detail, if not only HVDC lines are used. Other studies (and here, in particular, the DENA II-study (DENA 2011)) allowing extreme situations for cross-border flows and offshore wind feed-in result in higher values for expansion: as much as 3,500 km by 2020. The most plausible technologies used will be a combination of conventional overhead lines with high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines. In the long term (2040þ), investments of 6–8 billion € will be necessary. This corresponds to a value of 0.2–0.35 €ct/kWh of feed-in from wind power plants.

.

7

Economic Analysis and Policy

Having discussed technical requirements, potentials and costs for balancing technologies in the previous sections, this chapter investigates problems in a market economy with electricity supply that changes with weather conditions and incentives to balance supply and demand (see Sect. 7.1). This is followed by an analysis of the reasons and potentials for politically manipulating economic framework conditions (see Sect. 7.2). The results are finally summarised and concluded in Sect. 7.3.

7.1

Problems in a Market Economy without Economic Policy: Weather-Based Supply and Culturally Caused Demand Fluctuations

7.1.1

The Insurance Function of the Market

The insurance function of the market mechanism is well illustrated by the case of supply shortage in agricultural harvests, which induce an increase in the market price. When bad weather drives up the market price of agricultural products, clients, in this case farmers are insured to receive this increased market price. Similarly, if there is little electricity generation because wind energy suffers from the wind being too weak, the price at the spot market may be high and compensate suppliers. Of course, this only happens when the trading partners do not have long-term contracts with fixed prices, which avoid the risk of high short-run prices. In contrast with the high prices that consumers may confront under weak wind conditions, prices may decline when the wind blows strongly. This principle also holds for other causes of fluctuations. Therefore, it would be useful to have continuously differentiated prices. A major difference from the example of agriculture is that in the case of renewable energies there are supply reserves, such as hydropower and gas-fired power stations, which can be used in situations of scarcity. In the case of excess supply, other suppliers can reduce their production, especially with gas, but also coal, although this comes with some adjustment costs. B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_7, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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Daily fluctuations are only partly due to uncertainty of supply. To a large extent, the fluctuations are predictable and, therefore, essentially known beforehand. Fluctuations of demand do not constitute a problem for the market mechanism if prices are differentiated with respect to time and location. However, the price strategy of electricity suppliers is not necessarily in accordance with this idea. In Germany there is a different consumer price for day and night, but no further variation in prices for consumers. For example, having two different prices for times of high and low demand could be an interesting concept. If that existed, the demand side would have an incentive to shift demand to times of low prices without running the risk of unpredictable high spot prices. A lower capacity would then be sufficient to provide the supply at moments of demand peaks. It remains an open question though as to how much less capacity one would need. In the short run these effects might be small (see also Sects. 5.3.1, 5.3.2 and 5.3.3). Washing machines and dishwashers can easily be used at times of low prices. Shifting the times of meals though is much more difficult. Only when schools and jobs have more flexible hours of activity can stronger effects be achieved.

7.1.2

Fluctuations and Smoothing of Electricity Demand: Energy Saving Reduces the Demand for Storage Facilities

If demand is smoothed and peak demand thereby reduced, time-differentiated prices make it possible to have less capacity. This would save in investment costs.1 To achieve this, households may be helped by measuring instruments. These should not only indicate the amount bought and consumed, but also the time-differentiated prices unless this information is easily available elsewhere. This would provide an incentive to save electricity during phases of high prices and use more when prices are low. The cost of buying meters can make this unprofitable though, if the consumer carries the burden and does not believe that the additional information provided could be profitable. If demand during peak times gets lower, the gaps between demand and supply during times of little wind and sun activity also get smaller. Therefore, the electricity required to compensate for the gaps by use of storage systems will be lower. As electricity suppliers have lower investment costs, get information on consumption (perhaps including former illegal use, which is now excluded) and better control over the network, it should be advantageous for them to carry the costs of the meters. Therefore, Enel in Italy has invested three billion dollars in 2006 and the US government gives subsidies in the USA of $4.5 billion (Scott 2009). It remains unclear, however, whether Italian and US

1

These sentences and in general all others should be read as ceteris paribus formulations. This means that other aspects are held constant for the sake of the argument. In particular, the structure of the system may change and then other effects could appear as well. Still another aspect is that shifts in demand may lead to movements up or down the average cost curve. Such effects cannot be discussed though without introductions to very specific properties of technologies.

7.1

Problems in a Market Economy without Economic Policy: Weather-Based Supply

165

consumers will get offers of time-differentiated prices. The effects could be positive, as shown by the following experiments: A study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory gave customers in Oregon and Washington access to energy consumption information broken down by appliance every 15 minutes, and allowed them to program their water heaters and thermostats to respond to changes in electricity prices. Participants received cash when they operated their household loads in collaboration with the needs of the grid—i.e., when they reduced their energy usage at times of peak energy demand. Over the year of the study, peak load on the grid was reduced by approximately 15% and consumers saved approximately 10% on their electricity bills as compared to the previous year. Based on these results, the authors determined that if all customers nationwide were engaged in reducing peak loads, peak electricity prices would be substantially reduced and approximately $70 billion in new generation, transmission, and distribution systems could be avoided, with the savings passed along to ratepayers. The benefits of consumer energy savings in the 5–15% range scale up very quickly both in terms of cost savings and CO2 emission reductions. As the average US residential customer spends about $1,200 a year on electricity, a real-time feedback monitor could save a consumer $60 to $180 per year. (Google 2009)

It should be noted that these high returns are based on adjustments in the infrastructure. With this result, the investment in meters has a payback time of about 1 year because meters can be bought for $125, a price that is between the yearly savings of $60 to $180. Some additional costs may have to be incurred though to get the measuring tools and in order to write more detailed bills. These are simply one-off costs. The major problem is the following: As mentioned above, households receive money for their behaviour. To make this possible in real-life situations, timedifferentiated prices are needed. These prices have to be communicated to the consumers and the quantities to the sellers. Both could be communicated via the Internet or TV. The suppliers would need to digest the information stream. As this happens already in Italy, it seems that the bottleneck in concepts for Germany is offering time-differentiated prices. The relevant questions are which type of pricing households are prepared to accept and which ones suppliers are willing to offer. Highly flexible peak-load pricing imposes uncertainty on the households, and it is not clear that households want to accept this in return for the possibility of lower costs. This problem is a typical example of exchanging return against risk. Contracts will only be accepted if they are differentiated in accordance with consumer preferences. The users may want to be able to predict what they have to pay. One simple idea is the extension of the day and night differentiation to also include two prices for the day, one for peak hours and one for normal hours. Other ideas exist. They may be complementary or substitutes. One of these ideas is separating the mechanisms for price formation and flexibility. There may be a long-term supply contract (1 year) between supplier and consumer, with a fixed daily tariff structure e.g., night and day tariff. In addition, there is the additional role of an aggregator who bundles and controls load with a DSM mechanism. The aggregator forms out of the aggregated load control

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products, which can be offered to the market. If the customer participates, the customer gets money from the aggregator. In total, the customer can only win by offering their flexibility to the aggregator.2 The open question then is whether suppliers want to offer these contracts or prefer to offer other contracts.

7.1.3

Fluctuations and Smoothing of Supply

If wind blows strongly in northern Germany, the Dutch network gets overburdened and even the capacity at the French-Belgium border is affected (Rious et al. 2008). When the Dutch network gets overburdened, Dutch producers have to shut down their electricity production. Investment in the border-crossing parts of the international network with some international coordination could improve this situation, because it would lead to lower price differences between regions. Effects of positive and negative supply shocks are then distributed over a larger system and have lower effects on spot prices. On the other hand, when supply is low, it is easier to increase supply from other countries if transborder transport capacity is higher. In addition to optimising transborder capacity, parts of excess supply could be taken out of the market if time-differentiated prices would make hydrogen production and loading of large batteries profitable (see Anderson and Leach 2004; Sauer 2009). Still another idea is to load small batteries in electric cars and to discharge them during times of weak wind, using them as a storage medium. In countries with pumped storage facilities, excess supply of electricity is used to fill reservoirs (see Madlener and Wenk 2008; F€ orsund and Hjalmarsson 2010). In the short term, as long as the share of renewable energy is low and CO2 prices allow natural gas to remain in the market, it is likely to do the adjustment job. In the long run, however, when CO2 prices make natural gas expensive and pumped storage is limited, other technologies will be needed.

7.1.4

Coordination of Supply and Demand

Stodola and Modi (2009) claim that for the more southern states of the USA solar energy is perfectly synchronic to the daily demand, as well as the seasonal one, and could be added as a supply in addition to that of the base load serving demand during the night. To the extent that this functions as described, no coordination is needed. This case is probably an exception. As renewable electricity is supplied decentrally, coordination—beyond the mere use of the price mechanism—is advantageous because it avoids the necessity of shutting down excessive production capacity, in particular on the basis of priority rules (merit order). Additional coordination can be achieved by linking up suppliers and users in a virtual power

2

Stadler (2008) discusses technologies that can be used for this mechanism.

7.1

Problems in a Market Economy without Economic Policy: Weather-Based Supply

167

plant. Better coordination allows having less (excess) capacity. In addition, storage facilities could perhaps be integrated into the virtual power plant. Virtual power plants digest large amounts of data and provide services for the management of the grid. In the context of micro-cogeneration plants in households, a coordinated operation could lead to several benefits and, thus, potential economic revenues associated with the supply of idle and balancing power, avoidance of compensation energy usage, reduction of maximum grid load, provision of peak load, acting on the spot market, and, depending on the technical implementation, demand-oriented supply (Droste-Franke et al. 2009:LIV, LXIV and Sect. 5.5). Products with low fixed costs can lead to more fierce competition, because the number of firms in the market that lead to zero profits rises with lower fixed costs. Virtual power plants are this type of technology. Large suppliers prefer situations with higher fixed costs, which allow for larger profits. The crucial question then is which firm can offer lower prices through costs. As virtual power plants support renewable energy supply they provide environmental benefits besides the coordination services (Droste-Franke et al. 2009:LIII, LV).3

7.1.5

Aspects of Long-Run Developments

The long-run development of a sector depends on three aspects. (1) The income elasticity of demand is the percentage of increase in demand, if clients’ income grows by 1%. (2) The costs associated with factors of production and intermediates determine the minimum level of the long-run average sales price: at a higher price, demand will be smaller. (3) Technical progress in a sector reduces unit costs and sales prices, either uniformly or with a bias towards the costs of some factors such as labour, energy or emissions. In the energy sector, demand seems to be fairly normal. The efforts to reduce energy consumption are overcompensated by the increasing use of consumer electronics and communication technology when incomes grow. Costs are also determined by capital costs and energy inputs; for nuclear power, capital costs are by far dominant, whereas for gas they have a lower share. Research and development in the energy sector is modest. Sterlacchini (2006) found that the average value of expenditures for research and development of some energy suppliers in Italy, Germany, Spain, France and the UK during the years 2000 to 2005 fell from 0.75% to 0.27% of revenues. Moreover, the research expenditures for green technologies are also modest and too low (Aghion et al. 2009a). More green technological progress, which may come about in the future, is likely to reduce labour-saving technical change if these compete for the same research resources. This can be shown in a simple optimal growth model (see Appendix).

3 Problems regarding norms, standards, law and the economic integration of virtual power stations in the whole energy system are discussed at length in Droste-Franke et al. (2009).

168

7.1.6

7 Economic Analysis and Policy

Towards a Theory of Location for Storage Facilities

For storage facilities there are some crucial questions. Which firms are interested in investing in storage facilities? Which firms are allowed to have storage facilities? Which firms should be allowed to have storage facilities? Where would storage facilities be located? In principle, all firms selling and buying electricity may be interested in having storage facilities if they expect increasing prices at a rate that allows them to finance the interest and repayment cost of the investment credits financing the facilities. Wind energy producers have times at which the wind blows so strongly that they produce electricity that they cannot sell via long-term contracts, and therefore will have very low and even negative spot prices at these moments of excess supply.4 In such a case, it is useful to store the electricity that is available at negative prices, for instance, either in batteries or transformed into hydrogen (see also Sects. 5.2 and 5.3). At these moments, the network is congested and therefore the costs of transporting energy in an efficient nodal pricing system5 (see Leuthold et al. 2008) would be very high. This suggests the benefits of the producers’ storage facility being located near the point of production. In addition, having storage facilities near consumers will probably not be very efficient because of infrequent use. What about traders? At moments of high wind energy too much supply goes through the net, that is, there is more supply than the demand side can absorb. By implication, the spot price will be low, but transmission prices will be high. When energy supply is low, spot prices are high and transmission costs are low. Traders, therefore, also have an incentive to have some storage systems or they will be forced to buy electricity from supplies stored by electricity producers. This points to two possible constellations. Either traders put storage facilities near the source or they locate them close to customers. As producers must locate close to their production point, it is reasonable to assume that traders locate close to customers. Suppliers of network services may have an incentive to have storage facilities close to points of network instability, unless it is more cost efficient to strengthen capacity at the bottlenecks.

4

See the model and evidence for Scandinavian countries in F€orsund and Hjalmarsson (2010). Efficient nodal pricing allows in principle for regional price differences whenever local bottlenecks lead to relatively high supply or demand. In the German system, law currently imposes uniform prices, because they are held to be desirable. However, they also have the disadvantage that incentives to remove bottlenecks are suppressed because average prices are inefficient signals. The ideal solution to this dilemma is to achieve uniform prices through efficient investment, rather than administrative measures. F€ orsund and Hjalmarsson (2010) suggest increases in transmission capacity as an efficient response to excess supply in four Swedish price areas. As volatility can be very strong, for example, in West Denmark consumers and other buyers may want to have some limitations to price fluctuations. Allowing for regional price differences within a small corridor, in combination with an obligation to remove bottlenecks within a certain time scale could be a good compromise that protects consumers without suppressing signals and leaving some incentives for investment. 5

7.2

Analysis of Economic Framework Conditions

169

Who is allowed to have storage facilities? Grid operators are currently not allowed to run storage facilities according to the European Union’s unbundling directive (Pieper and Rubel 2010). An open question currently is whether or not this is efficient when wind energy requires policies for stabilisation. Can producers and traders alone handle storage efficiently?

7.2

Analysis of Economic Framework Conditions

7.2.1

Introduction: The Theory of Economic Policy

The starting point of many economists’ thinking about economic policy is the view that historically all systems have failed except for the market economy (Srinivasan 1988). Therefore, the dominant idea and starting point in thinking about economic policy is to leave the solution of problems to markets in the first instance, unless one can find good reasons to argue that the market will not solve a problem. For sufficiently long periods, and with the exception of crisis periods, market economies have had a good performance. However, they are not necessarily optimal. There are three categories of problems, which possibly are not solved optimally by the market6: 1. Market and macro-economic instability, fluctuations and disequilibria with disappointed expectations, 2. Distributional justice, 3. Market imperfections. Market imperfections are themselves subdivided into three categories of market failure: a. Badly arranged or absent property rights; frequently discussed cases are intellectual property rights and environmental laws. b. Monopolies, as considered by the cartel or anti-trust authorities. c. Incomplete market structure: It is not possible to get insurance for all future circumstances, because some markets do not exist. For example, contracts on foreign exchange are limited in regard to the number of periods ahead for which one can find markets—individual arrangements have extra costs, which tend to be very high. By implication, in this category we have all the problems of uncertainty, which cannot be covered by insurance, financial or barter contracts. Market imperfections are mostly defined only for stable equilibria. Therefore, the aspects mentioned first have to be considered separately. Stability has to be ensured by governments if markets do not bring it about sufficiently quickly. The more severe a crisis, the more economists agree on the necessity of intervention. For the financial crisis of 2007–2009, there was agreement concerning the acute situation of 2009, but disagreement in regard to 2010. Fluctuations have been found

6

An extensive discussion can be found in Ziesemer (2008).

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to be costly in the sense that they go together with lower GDP growth rates (see Chami et al. 2009). If dampening action is not more expensive than the costs of the continuing existence of a problem, it is welcome. Disequilibria with disappointed expectations can best be explained by using the example of extremely high and low wind intensity and the corresponding price fluctuations. For these situations, regulations have been created that enforce the shutdown of supply or create the obligation to buy electricity, because the market is unable to create equilibrium without intervention.7 In addition, spot prices are surprisingly high or low and insurance does not exist; only long-term contracts offer an imperfect alternative. Whereas insurance for all uncertainties, if available at all, is constrained, in terms of efficiency it would be preferable to reduce the cost of insurance by reducing the causes of uncertainties, fluctuations and disequilibria. If the market cannot solve these problems adequately, this does not automatically imply that governments can do better. In this case we speak of government failure. In the presence of these problems, one should think about the potential of the government to improve the situation. By implication of this logical procedure, the first question is: given the current context, which problems can the market not solve? The second question is that of how the government can improve economic results without a degradation of circumstances for the other problems. The third question, which is important, is that of ‘sequencing’. As policies are often not efficient and decisions are taken rather as a result of historical compromises, the question is how textbook policies have to be adjusted and in which order measures should be taken for the transition from historical to efficient and fair policies.

7.2.2

The Theory of Economic Policy in the Area of Environmental and Technology Problems

7.2.2.1 Tradable CO2 Permits, Taxes and Other Instruments Dealing with climate change externalities can result in added costs for increased flood protection, new medicines and the like. How can these costs be internalised? The major instruments that have been discussed are taxes on emissions or tradable permits.8 Taxes would fix the price to be paid and leave the quantities of emission fluctuating. Alternatively, if the supply of tradable permits were constant, but at different levels every year, prices for tradable permits would go up and down. The basic idea in this discussion of how to choose between taxes and permits is that marginal benefits and costs of emission reductions should be equal in terms of expectation, but there will be fluctuations in both. As marginal benefits are a long-term aspect because effects come about only after 30 or 40 years, they can be

7

The conceptually corresponding signals of disequilibria during recessions are downward deviations of inventories in goods markets and upward deviations from equilibrium unemployment. 8 China has announced the intention to enforce environmental policy through the (non) allocation of credit.

7.2

Analysis of Economic Framework Conditions

171

assumed to be fairly constant. Marginal costs will fluctuate because they are different in booms and busts of the business cycle. With fluctuation in marginal costs and flat marginal benefits, a tax will reflect the value of marginal costs and benefits every year and provide a long-term orientation for investment decisions (Dinan 2009). Also, the possibility of coordinating climate policy with other market imperfections such as monopolistic competition and product variety is easier with a tax system (Soete and Ziesemer 1997). If there is only weak information on marginal abatement costs through R&D rather than known stochastic processes implicitly assumed so far, permit markets are superior if future markets are institutionalised (Endres and Rundshagen 2010). Moreover, tradable permits have low prices in recessions and high prices in booms. Therefore, they mitigate recessions and smooth booms as automatic stabilisers. In the EU, a tradable permit system has been installed without future markets allowing trading across periods of EU ETS phases (Kemfert and Schneider 2009). As climate change is a global problem, all countries should be included. The developing countries have declared that they will participate only if they receive money for measures to mitigate consequences of earlier emissions by the rich countries. This money could be raised by auctioning off the permits or/and by raising a tax (possibly in addition). Both options are currently under consideration in the EU ETS. 9 For both CO2 taxes and tradable permits, the costs of these policies are higher, the later the policy is initiated. A late start for a policy with given objectives implies that the CO2 tax has to be higher to achieve the same effect or the reduction in the supply of tradable permits has to be more drastic (ICCG 2010). The implications would be that the effects on growth are much stronger compared to an early start with low taxes and long adjustment periods. Also, both policies may be counteracted by supply reactions: If suppliers of fossil energy sources anticipate falling prices from demand reduction policies, they may speed up the extraction and supply of fossil fuels (Sinclair 1992; Sinn 2008). Similarly, taxation at source may lead to a similar reaction if it is phased in only slowly, country by country. Then, too, profitability declines and extraction is speeded up.

7.2.2.2 Research and Technical Progress: Trusting Markets Only Versus Support for Complementary Technologies? Support for technologies should adhere to the principle of “technological neutrality.” Policy measures are defined to be technologically neutral if no technology is preferred or discriminated against after taking into account all market imperfections (Metcalf 2009). If the only market imperfection is an environmental one, environmental taxes or prices are neutral vis-a`-vis all technologies. The case when there are several market imperfections may be much more difficult. If several environmental technologies are supposed to produce different learning or research externalities, differences in subsidies may be justified. It may seem easy to prove the existence of

9 Currently, firms producing emissions must have as many certificates as they have emissions on April 30 every year.

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learning curves ex-post facto by way of regressions of unit costs on output. It is more difficult to prove the existence of externalities ex ante. Spillovers from research are widely accepted in principal, but quantifications are of course difficult. Technological specifications in the respective laws can introduce technological non-neutrality. Metcalf (2009) describes a case in which the Toyota Prius does not get any subsidy. The competing models of Ford and Mazda (in the same holding) get equal subsidies and that of Chrysler gets much more. It is hard to imagine that economically sound assumptions of calculating the subsidies per kilometre or gallon can be found to justify such asymmetry. The problem here is that lobbyism and directly unproductive profit seeking (DUP) activities may lead to inefficient policies when subsidised technologies are specified in the law. Economic knowledge is ignored in these cases, as indicated above.

7.2.2.3 Beyond Pigovian Corrections Taxes and subsidies try to correct market imperfections through an impact on the prices and costs. However, externalities may be present also in public factors requiring public investment. Private firms can of course be producers of transnational electricity networks, but the planning and financing requires some government support. 7.2.2.4 Policies for Imported Resources and Political Risks A risk similar to that of regionally concentrated raw materials such as oil and gas can be expected for projects such as Desertec (Knies 2006), because the countries involved are all in northern Africa, which is mostly held to be an area of political instability and conflict.

7.2.3

The Current Practice of Government Support

In Germany, renewable energy is actually subsidised via a price guaranteed by the law for renewable energy (EEG), which is financed by a mark-up on all buyers of electricity. This price is calculated on the basis of the costs of production, investment and other components. Storage facilities may be one of these cost components, which may be taken into account once they become more relevant. Energy firms, however, try to get other subsidies too. RWE and General Electric have tried to get a 50% subsidy for the two billion € investment costs of a coal-fired power station with CCS. The money is supposed to come from the crisis law (Welt Online 2009). The firms argue that current carbon prices are too low and in general too uncertain to base the financing on opportunity costs from avoided CO2 only. Households can get interest subsidies on credit for solar energy investments (Bundesverm€ogensamt Freiburg 2010). Not only electricity delivered to the network will be subsidised, according to the new version of the law for renewable energy (EEG), but also that used by household producers themselves. This will

7.2

Analysis of Economic Framework Conditions

173

speed up the transition to renewable energy and may contribute to future network stability. Concentrated solar power (CSP) is being considered for R&D support by the German Ministry of Environment, Nature and Nuclear Safety (Christmann 2008).10 There is a close relation with the Desertec project mentioned above. The World Bank supports CSP via the Clean Technology fund.11 Renewables altogether get about 100 million € research subsidies from the German government (Korfhage 2009). The share of research subsidies targeted at photovoltaic has been reduced since 2006, but that of wind energy has been enhanced. Network integration is part of this. Storage and virtual power plants are included here as they are explicitly mentioned.12 Research on biomass usage is also subsidised. On the one hand, there is some emphasis on avoiding competition for land for biomass with usage for food. On the other hand, there is also emphasis on imports from Ukraine and Russia. It is not obvious that there is a clear intention to avoid competition with land usage for food in these countries. This is, in principle, the same sort of neglect as that leading to the cutting down of trees in Indonesia when biomass was subsidised in the Netherlands. Aspects of international trade should be more carefully taken into account. In regard to water power there is not only the price guarantee but also interest rate reductions for investment credit (see www.kfw.de, www.erneuerbare-energien.de).13

7.2.4

Stylised Views on Economic Policy: First Best, Second Best, History and Transition

In this section we explain the basic principles behind the explanations of the examples given above.

7.2.4.1 First Best The basic idea about policies to correct market imperfections is that governments should have one instrument for each imperfection. Ignoring other imperfections, for CO2 damages an adequately designed tradable permit system or CO2 tax would be sufficient to internalise the costs. Some goods would become more expensive and would lose market share. If market share hits zero, producers would leave the market. Other goods would become relatively cheaper and would gain market share. Goods that were not on the market may become competitive and enter the market. One instrument is sufficient to address the problem. It is not necessary to have subsidies for clean alternatives such as wind and solar energy beyond those for research and development. By implication, this view suggests there should be no

10

The Future Investment Program (ZIP) of the German Ministry of Environment supported R&D in 2001–2003 for CSP. 11 CIF (2010) does not mention Desertec, but it seems to fit in perfectly. 12 In the USA, investment in CSP is supported by tax credits (Handelsblatt). 13 For funding of electricity grids see Koenig et al. (2004).

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subsidies for use or production of coal, shipbuilding, agriculture and other measures to slow down structural change. Nor should the competitors of solar and wind energy be supported unless one can find market imperfections that justify policy interventions. This is not a shopping list from which one can pick some elements and drop others arbitrarily. If one does so, some technologies will be favoured above others. This may bring inferior technologies inadequately into the market through subsidies and keep others out because they are inadequately subsidised. It is therefore important to have not only qualitative ideas about subsidisation, but also quantitative ideas about the externalities that justify taxes or subsidies.

7.2.4.2 Second Best In line with the first-best policy, the environmental policy literature is fairly negative about the use of subsidies other than for research and development. The reason is that subsidies are expected to reduce costs and prices and therefore encourage demand for energy, which enlarges also the negative externalities. However, this is mainly due to the limited view of environmental imperfections. If unemployment is taken into account systematically, environmental taxes, raising marginal costs and decreasing the expected value of creating a vacancy may increase equilibrium unemployment rates. Subsidies for pollution-reducing inputs may reduce these effects (see Ziesemer 2000). The introduction of environmental or other policies also can cause adjustment costs, which in the extreme case may challenge the stability of the economy or increase unemployment. A tax shifts the adjustment costs to the polluter and the revenues benefit the whole economy unless special arrangements for its use are made. This causes much political resistance as it is far from clear that the polluter is responsible for earlier arrangements and should carry the costs of adjustment. It may therefore ease the adjustment and cause less unemployment if those who have to adjust most get subsidies rather than tax burdens and the tax burdens to finance the subsidies are spread over the whole economy (Diederen et al. 1995; Vermeend and van der Vaart 1997). Dutch politicians call this working with ‘positive incentives’. The Dutch government has arranged subsidy schemes (see Steger et al. 2005, pp. 164–167) in line with this idea. A third argument in favour of subsidies is international competitiveness. If negative externalities are internalised by taxes, this decreases the competitiveness of those paying taxes, whereas competing foreign firms from countries not implementing this policy do not pay taxes and get a competitive advantage. In these cases, subsidies are the better solution because a loss of international competitiveness is minimised if the tax money to finance them is paid by households and therefore the effects are spread out over all firms (see Diederen et al. 1995; Vermeend and van der Vaart 1997; Ziesemer 2000; FiFo et al. 2009).14

14

The WTO limits the allowance for subsidies to 20% of the respective investment. If investment in the energy sector, Ie, is, for example, 5% of all investment, I, and investment is 20% of GDP we get sIe/GDP ¼ sIe(I/GDP)/I ¼ 0.2  0.05  0.2 ¼ 0.002. This means that subsidies are one fifth

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Analysis of Economic Framework Conditions

175

In short, taking into account interactions with other market imperfections, adjustment costs and international competitiveness may justify the use of subsidies and abandoning the polluter pays principle.15

7.2.4.3 Historical Heritage Many types of subsidies and taxes stem from ancient times when sound economic thought had no strong position in politics. According to the business press, the EU has recently calculated that subsidies for coal and other forms of energy supply are often more than 4 €ct per kWh. Such high subsidies may make it impossible for innovative technologies such as wind and solar energy to enter the market. When they are removed and CO2 taxes or tradable permits are imposed instead, the portfolio of energy technologies may change strongly. However, political compromises have led to the situation that CO2 policies have been installed but coal subsidies have not been removed. This situation could block innovative technologies unless they are subsidised as well. The other part of the political compromise therefore was to introduce subsidies for other technologies such as wind, solar and the combined generation of heat and power (CHP). This results in an incentive, however, to use more energy because energy from many sources is subsidised. 7.2.4.4 Transition to Science Based Views Once all technologies are in the portfolio, all subsidies that are not well justified should be reduced in parallel in the long run. CO2 costs also should be accounted for. The market can then determine which technologies are used and which leave the portfolio. From a political point of view, however, this would require a gigantic undertaking, because it requires an attitude on the part of politicians that is science oriented and not dominated by lobbyism at the expense of consumers and branches that lobby less strongly. Moreover, it is likely to run into controversies regarding how to reduce subsidies, as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) did with tariff reductions.16 However, gains in efficiency and reductions of government expenditure can be very large if a government succeeds in doing this. In sum, the only way to avoid stagnation in innovation is to take into account interactions among market imperfections, adjustment costs, international competitiveness and historical taxes and subsidies. As current practice in innovation

or a percent of GDP. If this is carried equally by all sectors it does not seem very much. However, the corresponding tax burden imposed on the polluter alone may be very high and may cause high adjustment costs and losses in international competitiveness. 15 Other interesting examples for abandoning are cases of national sovereignty, where it is not possible to impose the polluter pays principle. In the dolphin/tuna case and the turtle/shrimp case, US subsidies paid for environmentally benign fishing technologies, which avoided catching dolphins and turtles. 16 The question here is how to reduce: at equal percentage rates, or equal amounts of money of, which percentage rates, how many steps, percentage rates of the initial values of the remaining tariffs or subsidies, etc.

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policies can be viewed as doing this,17 the major tasks are taking care of nondiscrimination among innovations and shifting towards a science-based policymaking process.

7.2.5

Economic Policy Recommendations

Sterlaccini (2006) and Aghion et al. (2009a, b) recommend more public research for green technologies and more competition in this sector, because this might also stimulate more private research. Private research is currently too limited. Closely related is the idea of R&D subsidies for demonstration projects and startup subsidies.18 In terms of electricity storage, Germany currently only has projects for compressed air. This technology is, however, probably too expensive to cover a 12-day gap in renewable electricity production. Demonstration projects for the only realistically available long-term and large-scale storage technologies in Germany itself—hydrogen production and storage—should also be initiated and supported. These will be important because they provide learning effects for later projects. They will be needed in particular in the future when CO2 emissions are strongly restricted and therefore gas cannot be used any longer to supply electricity during long phases of scarcity such as during 12-day gaps (Anderson and Leach 2004). In principle, one can consider storage facilities as technologies that can finance themselves and be profitable through arbitrage and speculation. However, this may be sub-optimal because they also contribute to the improvement of circumstances that justify policy interference. First, stability is improved through buying at moments of high supply and selling at moments of low supply. Part of this is a reduction of what Heal (2009a) calls the cost of leaving demand unsatisfied.19 Other non-insurable costs that can be reduced are the costs of the enforced shutdown of electricity production and feeding into the network, enforced buying and the cost of regulation for disequilibrium situations when network stability is endangered. These are also system costs related to disequilibria and disappointed expectations, for which there is no insurance. There is also no good way of anticipating shortfall periods because we simply do not know whether the main gap in the production of sun and wind electricity will be 10 or 20 days or something

17

See FiFo et al. (2009); for example, tax credits in sea transport are characterised as adequate whereas those for agriculture and forest sectors are characterised as too high. 18 Of course, recent criticism regarding the implementation of startup subsidies should be taken into account. However, they should be based on a sound integration of subsidies into the empirical work (see Santarelli and Vivarelli 2002). Moreover, as the justification is mostly related to externalities and capital market imperfection, good indicators for these should be used as well (see K€osters 2009). 19 Gas-fired power stations may also provide this benefit, but it is beyond the scope of this project to judge subsidies for gas.

7.3

Summary and Conclusions

177

in between. Non-insurable costs from such disequilibria can be reduced through storage and therefore are worth subsidising. Second, storage technologies contribute to the reduction of environmental externalities as they make the system of electricity supply more environmentally friendly. Third, at times of scarce electricity supply, they can contribute to the reduction of monopoly power in the energy sector, which is strong at moments when some competitors drop out because they cannot deliver electricity when there is no sun or wind. Fourth, they may reduce the share of technologies that suffer from uninsurable uncertainty (nuclear energy), but they may also create new problems with potential lack of insurance (hydrogen storage). Moreover, as current economic policy practice also supports the extension of the electricity network and the investment of energy suppliers via the price of renewable electricity delivered, the installation for storage should also be taken into account here, in particular, because the supply of wind and sun energy becomes cheaper through the use of peak loads. This is a pecuniary externality from which all consumers benefit. It implies that subsidies for other components can be reduced somewhat if storage is subsidised and implemented. These subsidies are mainly based on the existence of a historical heritage (see Sect. 7.2.4) in the subsidies of competing technologies for electricity production, because without the latter, firms offering electricity from wind power could support storage adequately and their joint contribution would be supported sufficiently by the existence of markets for CO2 permits. We leave it an open issue as to how storage should be subsidised. One possibility is the integration into the calculations, which are in the background of the renewable energy law (EEG). The renewable energy law rewards the sale of electricity, which is not the purpose of storage facilities. Alternatively, storage gets subsidised at the investment level by instruments such as investment tax credits. However, in a study with a long-term horizon of 2030 or even 2050 there is no need to go into these details now. Research in the area of virtual power plants should be supported by public financial means for the same reasons (see R€ oller and Stehmann 2006). This has been done within the E-Energy-Program of the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Technology (BMWi 2007; European Commission 2005c; DrosteFranke et al. 2009).

7.3

Summary and Conclusions

An analysis of problems arising from weather-based supply and culturally caused demand fluctuations shows that several benefits can be gained with balancing options including demand-side management, intelligent control of generation and demand as well as energy storage capacity. An analysis of the economics for the location of storage facilities reveals that suppliers themselves as well as traders could be interested in their operation. While suppliers will locate the storage systems close to the sources, traders will rather locate storage units close to customers. A third group, grid operators, would also be interested and ideally locate

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the storage systems close to points with high instability. However, due to current legislation, formalised in the European Union’s unbundling directive, they are not allowed to do so. In this context, the question arises of whether it is efficient that only producers and traders are allowed to operate storage facilities. Storage facilities could improve the overall electricity system through stability of supply, reduction of environmental externalities, reduction of monopoly power in times of scarce supply and reduction of technologies with uninsurable uncertainty (nuclear power) (see also Sect. 5.7). It is, therefore, justifiable to intervene in the market to subsidise their development. Governmental funding currently supports other technologies in the area. Thus, not only funding for research and development and demonstration projects should be increased and further distributed over technology options, but also further funding should be implemented for storage technologies. Research in the area of virtual power plants also should be undertaken.

8

Legal Analysis of Balancing Strategies

8.1

Introductory Remarks

The adequate integration of renewable energies into the existing energy supply will, according to the analysis presented in the previous chapters, require a mix of different strategies and instruments. The exact design of this mix, and the relation between its components, are not yet certain nor totally determined by factors which can be analysed by scientific experts. The choice of different strategies and instruments will to a large extent be a political question. Due to the political and open nature of many decisions concerning the implementation of strategies for integrating growing shares of renewable energy sources into the electricity mix, as well as into the energy supply sector in general, this will require new institutional arrangements and governance structures. The design of these institutional arrangements is a political decision, which must be taken through democratic legislative procedures. This study cannot deal with the full complexity of the institutional and regulatory changes that will be needed. We do not attempt to present a comprehensive outline for an ideal legal framework for the electricity system in the years 2040 and beyond. Nor do we discuss the general legal framework governing electricity from renewable energy sources, namely, the feed-in-system regulated by the German Renewable Energies Act (EEG ¼ Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz). Instead, this study focuses on certain aspects of the recent energy law with special relevance to the most promising balancing strategies identified above, i.e., centralised and decentralised storage systems (Sect. 8.2), balancing in distribution grids (Sect. 8.3) and expansion of transmission grids (Sect. 8.4). With respect to central storage technologies, the focus is placed on civil law matters, such as non-discriminating use and access as well as unbundling. It will be important to determine—mainly based upon factual and technical findings— whether and to what extent respective central storage technologies shall be assigned to the supply layer or to the grid layer. Additional questions concern regulatory incentives as well as the planning and licensing of underground storage facilities.

B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_8, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

179

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Legal Analysis of Balancing Strategies

For decentralised storage systems, key legal aspects refer to e-mobility, while a focus shall be on data privacy laws and on contractual issues. In particular, individual contractual relationships and contractual networks will be taken into account. From a legal point of view, electricity supply via modern distribution grids gives way to a new legal dimension of data protection, particularly in respect to the amount and quality of data ascertained and processed. Thus, a main focus will be on the examination of whether and to what extent the legal regime regarding data protection de lege lata is ready to deal with the quantity and quality of this data. It can be expected that smart grids and demand-side management will result in a paradigmatic change from a closed market with clearly defined roles, stakeholders and processes to an open market with small providers and cooperation between purchasers and providers. In a global energy information network, not only data protection but also contractual problems and challenges will arise. The analysis presented here also addresses the legal arrangements that steer the expansion of transmission networks. It will be shown that the state of play consists of a very diverse set of rules and legal responsibilities. This results in problems of coordination as well as a tendency to transfer important decisions to informal procedures with a selective participation by stakeholders. As a consequence, many expansion projects face intensive resistance in their formal licensing or subsequent implementation phases. The study endorses a proposal for reform on the national level and analyses the recent proposals made by the European Commission concerning a reform on the EU level.

8.2

Energy Storage

8.2.1

Centralised Storage Systems

8.2.1.1 Planning and Licensing The regulatory regime known as the operations plan procedure (Betriebsplanverfahren) that is concerned with the admissibility of underground storage is basically appropriate with regard to minimising dangers. Problematic is the deficient statutory regulation of the relationship between storage operators and owners of landed property under which storage sites are located. Conflicts of interests caused by competing forms of utilisation of underground resources are not yet resolved sufficiently by the existing law (for more details concerning these topics, see Schneider 2011, pp. 70–74). The law governing mineral resources (Bergrecht) basically provides appropriate instruments addressing mining concessions (Bergberechtigungen) (for more details and further sources, see Schneider 2011a, pp. 72–73, 80). These are not applicable to underground storage facilities according to the current law, but could be used de lege ferenda for a legal balance between underground storage and landowners, on the one hand, and in relation to other underground activities, on the other. These devices are preferable to the legal uncertainty associated with the legal

8.2

Energy Storage

181

arrangements found in a former proposal concerning CCS technology. This failed proposal provided a duty for landowners to not tolerate underground CO2 storage. But this duty would have been dependent on a definitive planning approval order (Bundesregierung 2009), thereby, causing investment risks in the time before that approval is issued; a new governmental draft provides for a similar concept (Bundesregierung 2011). More important is the statutory introduction of a comprehensive underground planning instrument in order to avoid or solve utilisation conflicts at an early stage. Underground planning should be coordinated nationwide and eventually even for certain strategies projects even on the European level. An important additional element is the assurance of a solid basis of information through the mapping and registration of potentially appropriate subsoil formations.

8.2.1.2 Regulatory Incentives In contrast to the debate on network expansion, the discussion about the essential investment incentives for the installation of underground energy storage facilities is in its early stages (Schneider 2011a, pp. 74–79). Regarding regulatory law, existing energy and environmental laws merely contain marginal explicit regulations related to energy storage. The fundamental classification into the value creation chain of the electric industry (generation, transport, supply) remains open. However, the applicable law inadequately regulates questions of compensation in terms of energy storage on the basis of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz, EEG), and limits the freedom of those stakeholders potentially willing to store energy on their property. In short, the existing regulatory framework does not provide the required incentives for adequately managing the installation of energy storage facilities. Due to the currently uncertain technological and economic development of compressed air and hydrogen storage, at present it is necessary to advise against the introduction of a new storage bonus or storage premiums under the EEG (Schneider 2011a, pp. 80–81). It appears more promising to avoid legal restrictions and to conduct an easier, specifically controllable form of financial support through research budgets for pilot projects. Important barriers would be dispensed if energy storage facilities were a clearly legally accepted tool for transmission system operators (TSO) to fulfil their duties regarding the best possible commercialisation of electricity from renewable energy sources through the electricity stock exchange. 8.2.1.3 Access With respect to central storage technologies, key legal aspects concern the definition and attribution both de lege lata and de lege ferenda. It is decisive to determine—mainly based on factual and technical findings—whether and to what extent respective central storage technologies shall be attributed to the supply layer or to the grid layer. The respective position taken governs to a large extent the legal assessment of civil law matters, such as non-discriminating use and access as well as unbundling. In particular, the recourse to general and specific access duties as well as the stipulated grid use regarding access depends upon the concrete design of

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central storage technologies and their respective legal classification. These findings are valid for both the EnWG (general and specific access duties according to }} 17, 18 EnWG; stipulated grid use regarding the access according to }} 20, 28 EnWG) and the antitrust law (GWB and Art. 101 et seqq. AEUV). These findings are also valid regarding the antitrust essential facilities doctrine (cf. } 19 para. 4 no. 4 GWB). Grid Access (in Terms of Grid Use) and the EnWG In the context of the EnWG, a special focus is on } 20 and its specific consideration for the overall aim of non-discriminating access in the light of the promotion of liberalised energy markets in the European Union. Thus, the German legislator has not ruled in favour of exclusive regulated grid access, but took rather the middle road between stipulated and regulated grid access with the regulations of }} 20 et seqq. EnWG. The inherent character of compromise found here raises a number of questions concerning access to the grid (i.e., whether and according to which conditions access to the grid has to be granted or by what means the customer relationship is shaped) (de Wyl and Thole 2011, p. 793). } 20 para. 1 EnWG, in regard to energy supply grids (gas and electricity), obliges grid operators to grant everyone (i.e., energy suppliers and purchasers) nondiscriminating grid access, according to a set of certain criteria, to and publish standard conditions (including model contracts) and grid user fees on the Internet. Grid operators are subject to a trilogy of conditions they must fulfil: freedom of discrimination, reasonableness and transparency (de Wyl and Thole 2011, p. 848). In other words, grid operators have a duty to cooperate in such a way that is generally requisite for granting efficient access to the grid. Further concretisation of these general obligations are found inter alia in } 20 para. 1a EnWG and the StromNZV (for electricity grids), as well as in } 20 para. 1b EnWG and the GasNZV (for gas grids). These provisions transfer enforceable rights in particular to such providers who purchase energy for the purpose of resale, and to producers who distribute energy in their own markets. The role of end-consumers also has to be taken into account, provided that they try to optimise their energy acquisition process by means of personal contracts for the access and usage of grids (de Wyl and Thole 2011, p. 848). According to the technical features of central storage technologies, which are still under discussion, it seems possible to assign the respective storage facilities to the supply or the grid layer. As a consequence of that finding, according to } 20 para. 1 EnWG with regard to the right to access the grid, central storage operators in charge could find themselves on both the claimant’s as well as on the defendant’s side. According to } 28 EnWG and with regard to gas supply, grid operators of storage facilities must grant access to their storage facilities and respective services to other companies with technical and economic terms free from discrimination, provided that the access to the storage facilities is a technical and economical prerequisite for efficient access to the grid that is designed to ensure customers’ supply. The grant of access can be refused, if the respective operators can prove that access—due to

8.2

Energy Storage

183

operating conditions or other reasons—is not possible or reasonable (see, e.g., Danner and Theobald (2011):} 28 Nr. 12 et seqq.). De lege lata, a storage construction is legally defined in } 3 Nr. 31 EnWG as a construction for storing gas belonging to or operated by a gas supply company, including the part of liquified natural gas (LNG) constructions that is used for the purpose of storage, except the part which is utilised for activities of extraction; excluded are furthermore installations, which are reserved to operators of supply networks for the exercise of their duties. In the context of the EnWG, a distinction is generally, but not always, made between grid facilities (ct. } 20 EnWG) and storage facilities (ct. } 20 EnWG). The fact that storage systems are actually used within the power supply line grids too, is taken into account by the legislator in } 3 No. 20 EnWG: Gas supply grids are defined as all long-distance supply grids, gas distribution grids, LNG facilities or storage facilities, which are required for the access to long-distance power supply lines, distribution and LNG facilities and which are owned or operated by one or several energy supply companies, including grid buffers and respective facilities, which are used for additional services. Therefore, such facilities are excluded from the legal definition of storage that is necessary for access to long-distance power supply lines and distribution (Danner and Theobald (2011):} 28 Nr. 14). As criteria in defining the attribute “necessity” it is essential to take into consideration the maintenance of the grid operation for the supply of clients. In this sense, a storage usage is necessary when it cannot be removed without causing the interruption of grid access. In this respect, the particular circumstances are to be considered. The provision concerning storage access in } 28 EnWG clarifies the legislators’ intention to regulate access to the majority of storage facilities separate from the grid. With that in mind, the spirit and purpose of the very provision as well as the intention of the legislator would be adversely affected if underground storage facilities on a long-distance power supply line level, which constitute a predominant part of all capacities, were to be excluded from the application of } 28 EnWG. Therefore, the classification of storage facilities as a gas supply grid should be limited to exceptional cases. Regarding the question of access free from discrimination, within the context of the EnWG, from the perspective of underground storage technology and depending on its specific configuration and classification, the following constellations can be distinguished: As far as corresponding facilities are allocated to the supply level, affected operators could—according to } 20 para. 1 EnWG—claim access to the grid. On the other hand, if such facilities were to be allocated to the grid level, the affected operators would be defendants to such a claim. In this respect, the following distinction has to be made: On the level of the electricity supply grid, the claim would derive from } 20 para. 1 EnWG. In the context of gas supply grids } 28 EnWG, concerning the access to storage facilities, would have to be taken into account prior to } 20 EnWG. A recourse to } 20 para. 1 EnWG would only be necessary in exceptional cases.

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Legal Analysis of Balancing Strategies

Grid Access (in Terms of Grid Use) and the GWB In the given context, the general antitrust regulation of } 19 para. 4 no. 4 GWB is of enormous relevance; the main purpose of the regulation of access in } 19 para. 4 No. 4 GWB is to grant access on fair grounds in essential facility constellations. Hereto, the potential exclusion of competitors in down- and upstream markets—deriving from a combination of vertical integration and a solidified market structure—is the essential criteria. The monopolistic position on the market for the co-use of infrastructure facilities is not addressed. Thus, } 19 para.4 no. 4 GWB functions as a substitute to sector-specific access regulations for further, already existing and arising infrastructure facilities. According to the very antitrust provisions, access to underground central storage facilities as strategic bottleneck facilities can be subject to the identified requirements, that need to be further considered on factual and technical findings. Grid Access (in Terms of Grid Connection) In accordance with underlying EU directives, the EnWG distinguishes between the claim for grid access (i.e., use of the grid for transport and energy) and grid connection (i.e., accessibility of the client in order to receive energy). Operators of central storage facilities that are underground storage facilities and that meet the definition of “storage-facilities” may have a claim to grid connection according to } 17 para. 1 EnWG. Thus, it has to be analysed which technologies the legislator should legally define as “storage-facilities” and whether the identified facilities should be included in that definition. However, in general the comprehensive regulation of a claim for grid connection should not require an obligatory recourse to the antitrust law. Furthermore, regarding technical innovations, the substitutional function of antitrust law (especially the provisions of } 19 para. 4 no. 4 GWB) has to be taken into consideration. Relation of the GWB to the EnWG According to } 130 GWB, the clauses of the EnWG do not hinder the application of }} 19, 20 GWB—provided that } 111 EnWG states not the opposite expressis verbis. } 111 para. 1 s. 1 GWB, however, orders to not apply }} 19, 20 and 29 GWB as far as the EnWG or provisions based on the EnWG lay down explicit and conclusive rules. In accordance with } 111 para. 2 s. 1 EnWG, such rules are contained in the provisions of Part 3 of the EnWG, which regulate grid maintenance including both grid access and grid connection. Those statutes, which were enacted on the basis of provisions of Part 3 of the EnWG, replace }} 19, 20 GWB only, if and in so far as they declare themselves as final rules in respect to the provisions of the GWB. Though the provisions on grid access and grid recompensation do not claim an explicit final character, the depth of control of the regulations will usually exclude the contingency of antitrust law discretion.

8.2.1.4 Unbundling } 6 para. 1 s. 1 EnWG stipulates the guarantee of transparency as well as the embodiment and the execution of grid maintenance free of discrimination as an

8.2

Energy Storage

185

overall legislative aim. The essential tool in order to ensure competition by the means of non-discriminatory and transparent grid maintenance is—in accordance with } 6 para. 1 s. 2 EnWG—the independence of grid operators from other spheres of energy supply activity in accordance with the provisions on unbundling (}} 7–10 EnWG). Taking these measurements into account, and in the light of the existing regime of energy law regarding unbundling, it is important to address the question of actual integration or disintegration of independent central underground storage facilities into the grid operators or energy suppliers. In this context it has to be examined whether and to what extent it may be possible in terms of the legal provisions on unbundling for grid operators to run their own storage facilities—or whether this should be made possible by corresponding legislative modifications. Apart from that, it is to be stressed that beside the rules of the energy economic law and the general antitrust law on unbundling there is a draft bill for an eventual amendment to the GWB, which could enact a new } 41a GWB named “Entflechtung” (unbundling), which would first and foremost affect the power supply industry. The realisation of this draft would probably have a deep impact in general, and on the subject of this study, the integration of renewable energy sources, in particular.

8.2.2

Decentralised Storage Systems, Especially E-mobility

For decentralised storage systems, key legal aspects refer to e-mobility, whereas a focus shall be on data privacy laws and contractual issues (concerning the integration of e-mobility in energy-management legislation de lege lata and the legal classification of electric recharging points in public areas cf. Keil and Schmelzer 2010:461 et seqq., 563 et seqq.). The contractual networks as well as the individual contractual relationships have to be taken into account for an appropriate treatment in respect of duties of care and spheres of risk, duties to cooperate and to inform as well as the conditions of use. Furthermore, the purpose of the relevant network will have an outstanding impact on the grounds of }} 307 et seqq. BGB, the legal regime regarding standard terms and conditions. In addition, the use of electromobiles brings up important questions concerning data protection. Considering the principles governing data protection legislation, a main focus should be on the implications resulting from the creation of far-reaching and extremely detailed individual energy use profiles.

8.2.2.1 Legal Relationships At first instance it is important to distinguish the relevant legal relations in the context of energy trade in order to address adequately the main complex of contractual networks. In this respect, a starting point is constituted by the liberalisation of energy markets induced by European law leading to a strict separation between grid connection, grid access (in this context meaning grid use in particular) and supply of energy. Nowadays, consumers are not only facing a single energy supply company but they have a rather free choice of energy

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suppliers while the grid monopoly remains mainly untouched. Moreover, there has to be a differentiation between the sale of energy as a good, on the one hand, and the transport of energy within the grid, on the other (de Wyl and Essig 2011, p. 498). This is because as an effect of this distinction a far-reaching transformation of the concerned contractual relations and negotiations (i.e., energy supply contracts, besides contracts for grid access and the use of a grid access) results for consumers, grid operators and electricity suppliers. Energy Supply Contracts Energy supply contracts deal with the (non-gratuitous) supply of electricity or gas for personal consumption or further sale. This includes contracts on the wholesale level between producers or salesmen, on the one hand, and between middlemen or suppliers, on the other. Furthermore, the term “energy supply contract” also includes the contractual relation between suppliers and consumers of electricity or gas (de Wyl and Essig 2011, p. 498). With respect to the legal doctrine, an energy supply contract is generally qualified as a contract of sale according to }} 433 et seqq. BGB or at least the legal concept of sale is applied as a matter of analogy. Usually there will be an arrangement defining the contractual relation as a longterm contract in the form of subscriber agreements or continuous supply contracts in which the amount that has to be supplied is not yet defined; the supplier has to be prepared to supply according to the consumer’s demand (de Wyl and Essig 2011, p. 524). In addition, the decentralised storage technologies, especially electro-mobiles, have to be adequately integrated into contract law measurements. It is essential to take the separation of energy acquisition and grid operation into account: With regard to trade and sales of electricity, different contracts have to be distinguished. Contracts will linearly increase in number with increasing numbers of traders and suppliers. Furthermore, questions concerning grid access (e.g., both connection contracts and connection usage contracts) have to be considered. In the context of transportation of electricity via the relevant infrastructure that forms a natural monopoly in terms of grid usage, the following relations will need to be contractually regulated: grid usage together with distribution grid operation by the provider (or exceptionally by the supplied customer); grid connection between a distribution grid operator and the connection user (owner); grid connection between an injecting producer and grid operator; grid usage and grid connection between different grid levels (de Wyl and Thole 2011, p. 848). Complex and Multilayered Structure The affected contractual relationships are complex and multilayered in terms of the relevant relationships regarding grid connection, connection usage and grid access. The mutual rights and obligations concerning the transport of electricity are the essentialia of these legal relations. The general claim for grid access is necessarily connected with the claim for grid connection being regulated first and foremost in }} 17–19 EnWG (de Wyl and Thole 2011, p. 848). The relationship

8.2

Energy Storage

187

concerning the connection usage between grid operator and connection user requires concretisation. In respect to electro-mobiles, the legal framework of grid connection and grid usage turns out to be multilayered and complex: Electro-mobiles will both be connected to the energy supply net as recipients of supplied energy and, in the context of decentralised storage systems, will temporarily feed energy into the net themselves. These interactions will have far reaching consequences on the (contractual) design of grid connection plus grid access and have to be understood in light of contractual relationships within networks.

8.2.2.2 Contractual Relationships Within Networks As a consequence of the issues discussed above a number of contracts addressing a variety of concerned parties will have to be taken into account when integrating decentralised storage technologies into the energy supply network. Both contracts on a horizontal level (i.e., electro-mobile to electro-mobile) as well as on a vertical level (i.e., connections within the down- and upstream markets) are concerned. They are also intertwined. The phenomenon of contractual networks has to be addressed; it can be said that the implications of contractual networks thus far have experienced only limited jurisprudential elaboration and for the energy sector probably even less. Contractual Networks as a de facto Phenomenon Contractual networks are based on a number of (at least) bipolar legal relationships, which de facto reach far beyond the regular bi-polar relationships in their entirety and complexity. These bi- and multiple polar contractual relationships are not independent, but influence each other. Contractual networks can be characterised as a clash of self-interested and charitable interests, whereby generally within the specific network the relation of self-interest to common public interest is mutual. Furthermore, the structure of concerned interests is shaped by a balance of commitment to the system on one hand and autonomy, pursuit of self-interest and rivalry on the other. These specific features of contractual networks have to be taken into account, particularly for matters such as contract interpretation, implied terms and standard terms examination. Legal Doctrinal Location and Derivable Duties Having in mind the following investigation on possible duties within networks, it has to be clarified whether and to what extent eventual legal effects can vanquish the dogmatic frontiers of a single (bi-polar) contractual relationship. For the assumption of possible duties between members of networks, who are not directly contractually connected with each other, from a legal theory point of view two alternative models seem to be possible: First, the contractual relationship between network initiator and network member could be categorised as a contract with protective effects for a third party (i.e., the other network members); thereafter the concerned duty would have to be classified on the basis of } 241 para. 2 BGB. Second, the contractual relationship could be seen as a contract to the benefit of

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a third party in the sense of } 328 BGB. Thereafter, a reasoning and classification of the claims by } 242 BGB in combination with } 328 BGB would be necessary. In both constellations, essential requirements would be at least a sufficient network link, sufficient reciprocity and corresponding network relevance. Furthermore, a distinction between duties of care, cooperation and information has to be made in order to define the content of the relevant duties. According to the subject of this analysis of the integration of renewable energies into the electricity supply, it has to be clarified whether and according to which conditions one member of a contractual network is liable to another member of the same contractual network with respect to the fact that a (direct) contract between these two has not been concluded. This involves looking into the possible effects on a third party, such as duties to take care and duties to protect (cf. } 241 para. 2 BGB), which are not related to an existing direct contractual relationship, but to the network in general. Furthermore, it will be necessary to redefine and realign the information relationships between grid operators, energy suppliers, users and operators of decentralised storage facilities. In addition to this, for the overall system to function adequately and to fulfil the purpose of each contractual relationship, a certain level of cooperation within contractual networks is essential. Taking the generally accepted necessity of cooperation into account, corresponding cooperational duties can be identified. This will require clarifying whether and how far beyond the single contractual relationships these duties (such as loyalty duties to the overall network) can possibly reach. Corresponding cooperational duties could manifest themselves in preparation, documentation and forwarding of certain information. Furthermore, possible informational duties for decentralised storage technologies are very likely to be found; those informational duties will have to be conciliated with a specific focus on legal data protection issues. Informational duties, which can be drawn from the context of the contractual network, may lead to duties in the form of acknowledgements and warnings. These duties may even start in the pre-contractual phase (e.g., duties to inform and duties to disclose) and outlast the term of agreement into postcontractual duties to perform and duties to protect. Modifications/Standard Terms and Conditions In conclusion, another important question is whether and to what extent modifications of a single contractual relationship can be justified due to the incorporation into a contractual network. Such modifications could concern the passing on of discounts, which are based on an increase in the quantities of orders, which again were only made possible by the network and its opportunities. Furthermore, objections arising from another contractual relationship or the network in general may become effective, because otherwise the functioning of the network itself would be harmed. Especially affected by this process is the drafting of standard terms and conditions for the usage of decentralised storage technologies. Hereafter, the overriding principle of the purpose of the network can have an outstanding importance on the basis of }} 307 et seqq. BGB when it comes to the control of the standard terms and conditions.

8.2

Energy Storage

189

In this context, the position of the consumer in the energy economy needs to be looked into separately. The overall aim of consumer friendliness within the energy economy law set out in } 1 para. 1 EnWG, is ensured by the civil law in general and the so-called law of the standard terms and conditions (Theobald 2011, p. 27). In this regard, the question of applicability of the law of standard terms and conditions is decisive (Scholtka 2000, p. 553). If the law of standard terms and conditions is applicable, questions may arise concerning the actual drafting, such as the question of effectiveness of an exclusion or limitation of contractual liability in the case of a negligently or deliberately caused interruption of the electricity or gas supply and irregularities with the delivery (Theobald 2011, p. 28). Thereby it has to be taken into account that when it comes to the control of standard terms and conditions, } 309 nr. 7 b) BGB codifies the ineffectiveness of an exclusion or limitation of the liability for gross negligence. It is doubtful that } 309 nr. 8 b) BGB, which leads to a nullity of an exclusion of liability for breach of duties, is applicable. Therefore, electricity or gas supply and delivery would have to be classified as “deliveries of newly made things or work performances” (Lieferungen neu hergestellter Sachen oder Werkleistungen) under the terms of } 309 nr. 8 b) BGB. However, the spirit and the purpose of the very provision as well as the intentions of the legislator, which find expression in }} 308 and 309 BGB, can be considered in view of } 307 BGB: with regard to e-mobility and its characteristics, this general clause assures appropriate consumer protection when it comes to the control of standard terms and conditions. Concluding, it has to be pointed out that } 310 para. 1 and 2 BGB restrains the control of standard terms and conditions on the basis of }} 307 et seqq. BGB, in particular when the actual drafting is addressed to businesses (cf. } 310 para. 1 BGB) or when a contract is concluded by an energy or gas supply company and a so-called special-tariff customer (cf. } 310 para. 2 BGB).

8.2.2.3 Questions Concerning Data Protection The use of electro-mobiles brings up—in addition to general contractual topics in view of data-based governance and control (so-called demand-side management)— questions concerning data protection. Data protection issues become particularly evident in relation to modern information technology algorithms that allow comprehensive and widespread profiling and the preparation of movement patterns. On the related topic of data preservation, the German Constitutional Court has recently handed down a significant judgement (02/03/2010, Az. 1 BvR 256/08, 1 BvR 263/ 08, 1 BvR 586/08), which especially marks out high standards of data protection (concerning, for example, separated storage and asymmetrical encryption). A close consideration of the principles guiding data protection legislation highlights specific problems with the integration of electric mobility: in respect to electric mobility, far-reaching and extremely contoured and widespread profiling of individuals and preparation of movement profiles can be achieved. Thus, it has been correctly pointed out that the integration of electric mobility into the energy market in terms of basic data protection risks that are based on the personal reference of the data can reach far beyond the risks associated with the integration of smart meters

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(Raabe et al. 2011, p. 46). In the context of the respective charging processes at various charging stations, it is very likely that there will be an elicitation of data measurements by various measuring point operators (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 45). Furthermore, additional market players will be involved in the conveyance and processing of the measurements, e.g., the operator of the charging station and an eventual clearing station (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 45). Additionally, the data that has been collected in the context of electric mobility will not only show personal reference but will give explicit or implicit locational references (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 45). The potential creation of high quality behaviour and movement patterns requires a comprehensive and differentiated data protection regulation of the relevant processes. In this context, the integration of electric mobility within the technical and organisational design of a smart grid and with consideration of the basic principles of data protection law (such as data minimisation or, preferably, data collection avoidance, transparency of data processing and, most importantly, data security) has to be observed and must be dealt with by means of regulatory measures (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 63). Further data protection issues are raised by the multiplicity of the generated and collected information according to which—depending on the precise arrangement in an individual case—a general and extensive (re-)arrangement of the informational relationships between system operators, energy providers and operators will have to be made. The overall data protection dimension of power supply caused by the comprehensive information and communication flow will be examined in the following section, where the legal framework is set out for a future smart power grid (smart grid), which allows bi-directional data communication for load control and suffices for the requirements for highly complex network processes (Raabe 2010, p. 379).

8.3

Balancing Strategies in Distribution Grids

8.3.1

Smart Meter

Smart meters lead the way to digital measurement, transmission and processing of consumption data for households. Via mobile telephones, the Internet or data transmission directly within the electricity grid, the concerned consumption figures shall reach the respective provider, while customers can recall and check their data continuously. Both quality and quantity of the collected data, its continuous recording, as well as the information being passed on, lead to new types of legal conflicts and questions. This makes it necessary to have a close look at issues regarding data protection and informational unbundling since detailed consumption figures facilitate the creation of fine-grained profiles (see also above). Problems of data protection may also emerge because of unauthorised extraction of data: Such constellations do not only affect physical scenarios (such as burglary) but also attacks through security gaps, which could for example affect the individual tariff modulation of millions of electricity customers.

8.3

Balancing Strategies in Distribution Grids

191

8.3.1.1 Topics Regarding Data Protection Until now, aspects of data protection have played no significant role in the debate about electricity supply. This is very much due to the fact that the electricity feed-in calculation was based on standardised profiles, which were developed solely from statistical surveys (Roßnagel and Jandt 2010, p. 374). The relevant surveys roughly distinguished usage patterns on working days, Saturdays and Sundays as well as bank holidays and the different seasons. This method of consumption survey enabled the consideration of changing tariffs with reasonable effort only for larger units of time (Fox 2010, p. 408).

Upcoming Main Challenges The enhancement of energy efficiency requires an adaptation of energy customers’ behaviour to the energy offered. Energy production and consumption have to be adjusted much more precisely vis-a`-vis the grid, optimising energy supply and use through the exchange of information between centralised and decentralised energy producers, energy providers, grid operators, measuring point operators, measuring service providers and customers (Roßnagel and Jandt 2010, p. 374). Only by taking such a vast grid of information and communication into account, can the enhancement of energy efficiency and the adequate integration of renewable energies into the existing energy supply, against the background of an increasing demand for storage technologies, be assured. With the amendments to the EnWG by the Electricity and Gas Metrology Competition Act (Gesetz zur O¨ffnung des Messwesens bei Strom und Gas f€ ur den Wettbewerb), and after the entry into force of } 21b para. 3a EnWG, which enabled the use of so-called smart meters, an important step towards an intelligent electricity grid was made (Karg 2010, p. 365). With the use of smart meters, the electricity supply obtains a new legal dimension relevant to data protection because of the amount and quality of data that can be ascertained and processed by smart meters. In the past, only a single all-inclusive data measurement for per annum consumption was effected; in the future there will be over 35,000 transmissions per year having inter alia a consumption measuring each quarter of an hour (Roßnagel and Jandt 2010, p. 374). In this context, it has to be taken into account that modern technologyorientated society will bring with it a highly mechanised and automated way of life where almost every human action results directly or at least indirectly in consumption of energy (Karg 2010, p. 366). Daily routine and behaviour models of people will be reflected in the use of energy. Hence, it has been suggested correctly that the up-coming detailed and precise registration of energy consumption will enable a far-reaching investigation into people’s lifestyle habits (Karg 2010, p. 366). With that said, it has to been examined whether and to what extent the legislation de lege lata regarding data protection is suitable for dealing with the data protection issues and safeguarding the concerned legally protected interests.

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Legal Framework de lege lata As detailed profiles of individual behaviour models can be compiled by using this data, the ascertained data can be classified as personal data under the meaning of } 1 para. 2 in conjunction with } 3 para. 1 Bundesdatenschutzgesetz (BDSG). The BDSG safeguards as statutory law the right of information related to self-determination, i.e., the individual right to decide—in principle—about the exposure and use of personal data (BVerfGE 65, 1 (43)). The smart meters’ technical and organisational set-up has to be pitted against the data protection law’s recognised principles and standards. A legal classification, however, is rather difficult as the necessary facts are diverse and multiple, and smart metering does not yet have a precise normative framework (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 12). } 4 para. 1 BDSG is designed as a prohibition rule with the possibility of authorisation under certain preconditions. Each kind of flow of information that takes place using smart meters has to be authorised by law—according to the principle of lex specialis derogate legi generali the range specific provisions have to be taken into account before the jurisdiction of the BDSG can be considered—or by consent, in order not to be classified as contrary to law. For the following research, a distinction has to be made in regard to the various data streams, data processes and informational content. Collection of Account-Relevant Data When collecting account-relevant data, relevant area-specific legislation will only be suitable as justification for data processing, if it regulates precisely the type of data to be processed, the purpose and the extent of the processing. In contrast, the very description of a task that requires for its fulfilment the processing of certain data is insufficient (Karg 2010, p. 367). Whether the EnWG or the Messzugangsverordnung (Verordnung u€ber die Rahmenbedingungen f€ ur den Messstellenbetrieb und die Messung im Bereich der leitungsgebundenen Elektrizit€ ats- und Gasversorgung) (17/10/2008, BGBl. I, S.2006) can be classified as an authoritative basis is doubtful. So far there are no range specific regulations that accompany the introduction of smart meters in terms of data protection (Karg 2010, p. 368). The conducted survey for accounting data that is relevant for customer’s accounts under the meaning of } 3 para. 3 BDSG may be permitted though, according to } 28 para. 1 no. 1 BDSG in conjunction with the contract in force between the operator of the measuring station and the affected entity. Two specific legal problems are very likely to arise under these scenarios: First, there is not a separate contract for measuring, because it is done by the supplier. A legitimation in case of all-inclusive contracts between suppliers and users could insofar be constructed by a legal obligation between distribution network provider and connection user derived from } 3 NAV (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 8). Second, the survey by remote readout creates legal problems, as the connection user is not able to control when and how often data will be read from his or her individual unit (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 8). That finding contradicts the principle of direct collection from the individual according to } 4 para. 1 s. 1 EnWG and is in conflict with the overriding principle of transparency of the data stream.

8.3

Balancing Strategies in Distribution Grids

193

Further subsequent problems have to be considered at that point: There may be substantial deviation from the principle of direct collection according to } 4 para. 2 BDSG in connection with the use of load-variable or depending on day time rates according to } 40 para. 3 EnWG as well as a general possibility of legitimation by consent by the affected entity according to } 4a BDSG. With respect to the element of such consent, the question arises whether and to what extent any telecommunication-based advantages can be taken into account for the energy sector. In this context, it is necessary to define how the requirement of a written form (stated in } 4a BDSG) can be arranged with respect to } 126 BGB and without creating a need for media discontinuity by sending an embodied declaration of intent. In fact, simplified consent for the energy sector following the model of } 13 para. 2 TMG already has been proposed (Raabe 2010, p. 384; Raabe et al. 2011, p. 10ff).

Transmission of Account-Relevant Data The transmission of account-relevant data from the measuring station operators to grid operators and energy suppliers also proves to be problematic from the point of view of data protection. If a grid operator is affected as an addressee of the data collected, } 28 para. 1 no. 2 or para. 2 no. 2 a), BDSG will come into question as a legal basis. In both cases this authority is restricted out of regard for the legitimate interests of the affected entity. If there are sufficient reasons to assume that the legitimate interests of the affected entity oppose the use of data survey, processing (transmission) and use may not be carried out, cf. } 28 para.1 no. 2 hs. 2 or } 28 para. 2 s. 2 hs. 2 BDSG (Karg 2010, p. 369). Notwithstanding the legitimate interests of the measuring station operators and the grid operators, the potential of remote processing immanent to smart meters threatens to foil the data security principle of transparency of data which is itself the basis of } 4 para. 2 BDSG. Without appropriate legal exceptions, the affected entities are therefore to participate in the transmission of consumption data. An eventual remote processing without participation and knowledge of the affected will hardly be seen as permitted from a data protection point of view (Karg 2010, p. 369). As part of the liberalisation of the measuring point operation, energy suppliers incidentally have to be considered as operators of smart meters if that is part of the contract of energy supply. In such cases, the legal basis for the survey of consumption would be the energy supply contract, } 28 para. 1 No. 1 BDSG (Karg 2010, p. 369). An exception to the general prohibition on processing—in the sense of transmission and deriving data from an application of } 28 para. 1 BDSG—also may be subject to the above-mentioned constraints concerning possible lack of transparency. Beyond that it will hardly be possible to justify the transmission of data with the preservation of the measuring point operator’s legitimate interests in the sense of } 28 para. 1 BDSG within the relationship between measuring point operator and energy supplier. Unlike in the relationship between measuring point operator and grid operator—an explicit legal provision is lacking. This implies that the transmission of data within this relationship is not (yet) permitted by the legislator.

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Collection, Processing and Usage of Control Relevant Data Art. 6 para. 1 lit. b Data Protection Directive (RL 95/46/EG) states that the purposes pursued by data processing have to be determined. Regarding the control-relevant data collection, its legitimate purpose as a device for realising energy saving aims and increasing energy efficiency has to be taken into account. In reference to } 40 para. 3 EnWG and the duties deriving from the implementing regulations, the preparation of individual profiles on the basis of quarter-hour time intervals or even real-time profiles can—according to data protection law—only be allowed by declaration of consent by the concerned person or on the basis of a contract according to } 28 para. 1 No. 1 BDSG (Karg 2010, p. 370). Concerning the principles of data collection, it has been discussed above that against the background of } 40 para. 3 EnWG, an exception on the basis of } 4 para. 2 BDSG is possible. Thereby, by the means of smart metering, load-variable and day-time tariffs can contribute to the increase of energy efficiency. Furthermore, the data protection issues must be dealt with, having in mind a balance between informational self-determination and an increase in energy efficiency that still guarantees innovational openness and legal certainty (Raabe et al. 2011, p. 3). For the evaluation of upcoming challenges, the premise holds that even when the exception implemented by } 4 para. 2 BDSG applies, the interests of concerned individuals have to be preserved. Such preservation can be achieved by providing constant information of concerned persons about prepared profiles as well as by granting insight into the real-time profile (Karg 2010, p. 370). In addition, the option to inspect one’s energy consumption via web portals, where servers may be located in other countries, creates another data protection dimension through the passing on of data. In this case, the legal regimes of both international law and international private law are affected. Finally, it has to be taken into account that personal data are only allowed to be collected, changed or transmitted, if this is necessary for the fulfilment of a contractual obligation. In this context, the observance of the principle of data economy laid down in } 3a BDSG has become subject to discussions. It is widely agreed that “necessity” means in this sense that only collection of data is allowed that is absolutely needed to balance accounts with consumers according to the tariff (Wedde 2010 } 28 Rn. 15). Thus, the grid operator is only entitled to know that a proper measuring took place at the point of a specific customer. For energy management and energy statistics for use with a secondary purpose, any consumer information does not need to and must not be personal. For controlling energy production and distribution no personal data is needed. For this specific purpose, consumer data from several households and business establishments have to be aggregated and may only be transmitted to the grid operators and electricity producers after this collectivisation process (Roßnagel and Jandt 2010, p. 375). Furthermore, beyond limiting data collection, the anonymisation of collected data has to be considered (Karg 2010, p. 367).

8.3

Balancing Strategies in Distribution Grids

195

Legal Policy Consideration: de lege ferenda Due to potential data protection infringements of the right to informational selfdetermination that may be induced by the use of smart meters, legislative regulation may be appropriate. An intervention into the right to informational self-determination can—in the interests of the general public—only be justified by a decision of the legislature. Both a normative framework within the legal regime of data protection or an area-specific amendment of energy law with data protection aspects come into question—from a viewpoint of theoretical regulation—for such a legislative action (Raabe 2010, p. 372). The basic principle of goal-oriented surveys, processing and use of personal data requires in substance an appropriate assurance about the purposes, which are legitimately traceable (Karg 2010, p. 372). Furthermore, it has to be determined with which detail which type of data may be collected and processed; also necessary is an accompanying assessment of potential risks to personal rights of the affected entity in the processing of the data (Karg 2010, p. 372). Finally, a codification of the various scenarios of data use as well as data protection has to be considered.

8.3.1.2 Contractual Relationships in Networks For the question about an adequate design of contractual relationships concerned, the statements made regarding possible obligations in contractual networks are of relevance. Additionally, the actual features of smart meters will have to be taken into account.

8.3.2

Smart Grid/Demand-Side Management

Smart meters are an essential prerequisite for and part of a larger whole within a smart grid. The ‘smart grid’ refers to the modernisation of the current electrical grid so that there is a bi-directional flow of information and electricity. Communications technology and infrastructure are at the heart of improvements to the electrical grid, which will collate data provided by smart meters and many other devices into actionable information for consumers and utilities (Cavoukian et al. 2010, p. 278). In this context, from a legal point of view there is a double paradigm shift in relation to the information technology networking of the stakeholders in the energy market: There is a change from a closed market with, in the sense of energy economic law, clearly defined roles, stakeholders and processes, to an open market which—from the viewpoint of enhancing energy efficiency—has also to include small providers, cooperation between purchasers and providers and a fast role change within the framework of the integration of decentralised production and storage. In respect to a far-reaching and globally applied energy information network, the legal risks of data protection identified in connection with smart meters and contractual problems and challenges are very likely to increase.

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8.3.2.1 Data Protection One consequence of such an all-embracing applied energy information network is the existence of various risks for informational self-determination as well as for the freedom of choice and development. This will mean the importance of data protection law will increase enormously (Roßnagel and Jandt 2010, p. 374). As was recently correctly pointed out in the international literature on data protection problems—referring to an American Smart Grid: “There are many significant privacy concerns and issues relating to the US Smart Grid according to a highlevel privacy impact assessment (PIA) by the Privacy Sub-Group of the Cyber Security Coordination Task Group responsible for addressing privacy on the Smart Grid, particularly in the area of consumer-to-utility information exchanges. The PIA stated that (U.S. Department of Commerce 2009a, US Department of Commerce 2009b, UK Department of Energy and Climate Change 2009): – The privacy implications of the Smart Grid are not yet fully understood – There is a lack of formal privacy policies, standards, or procedures by entities who are involved in the Smart Grid and collect information – Comprehensive and consistent definitions of personally identifiable information do not generally exist in the utility industry – Distributed energy resources and smart meters will reveal information about residential consumers and activities within the house – Roaming Smart Grid devices, such as electric vehicles recharging at a friend’s house, could create additional personal information – Smart meters and the Smart Grid network will be able to use personal information in unlimited numbers of ways” (Cavoukian et al. 2010, p. 284). Strategies to solve the arising problems have been suggested under the notion, “smart privacy,” whereby the right of informational self-determination is supposed to be taken into account when developing the technical and organisational design of the Smart Grid (Cavoukian et al. 2010, p. 25ff). 8.3.2.2 Contractual Relationships in Networks The statements made above related to the smart grid apply to contractual relationships concerned in network constellations as well, although specific deviations will have to be taken into adequate consideration.

8.4

Transmission Network Expansion

The focus of this part of the chapter is the complex interplay between energy market regulation and the planning law for infrastructure. The main objective of investment regulation is to guarantee a sufficient level of investment in order to guarantee security of supply as well as to foster the change to an energy system that supports climate protection policies. At the same time, inefficient, excess investments must be prevented. Network expansion also must be aligned with other regionally significant interests, such as nature conservation or other forms of land use.

8.4

Transmission Network Expansion

8.4.1

197

The Status Quo for Planning and Licensing of Network Expansion

The planning and licensing of electrical grids involves a complex set of procedures and different actors (TSOs, EU organs, national, regional and local authorities) and different subject matters or foci (corporate planning, economic regulation, sector-specific planning, spatial planning). The following figure gives an overview (Schneider 2011a, p. 16) (Fig. 8.1). The starting point of the overall structure is the responsibility of the TSOs for the functioning of the electrical system as a whole. As will be shown in more detail below, TSOs have duties to draw up different sorts of investment plans: for the TSO area, for European regions and for the EU as a whole. A second dimension of planning contains competences of different authorities with responsibilities for economic energy regulation, namely the BNetzA and ACER, but also the Federal Ministry of Economics. The main foci of these competences are the economic feasibility and efficiency of the TSO’s investment plans. On a secondary level, they are there to control the stability of the electrical system and to guarantee stability of supply. These powers will be explored in more detail in subsequent paragraphs (Sects. 8.4.2.3 and 8.4.2.4). To regulate economic efficiency, sector-specific planning procedures and general spatial planning procedures focus on conflicts between demands for network

Statutory concept of grid planning TEN-guidelines

ACER-control

Network planning

ENTSO–Investment plans

Regionale-Investment plans

BNA-grid expansion model

EnLAG State-wide planning

BMWi report TSO-Investment plans Regional planning

BNA report

Regional planning procedure

Detailed planning

Gross planning

§9 EEG; §…

TSO application documents

TSO–draft Planning approval order

Spatial planning

Sector-specific planning

Fig. 8.1 Legal concept of transmission line planning

TSO invest. budget applic.

TSO corporate planning

BNA control Economic regulation

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expansion and other demands for land use and nature protection. A distinctive feature of German planning law—not only in the field of energy law but for all important infrastructure projects such as railways or streets and motorways—is the differentiation between general spatial planning (mainly regulated by laws of the L€ ander) and sector-specific planning (mainly regulated by federal law). In this system, the licensing of a concrete project falls into the competences of sectorspecific planning authorities, at least if the project is of some importance. The legal instrument used in this case is a planning approval order (Planfeststellungsbeschluss). Its distinctive feature is that it substitutes all specific administrative decisions which would be needed for a concrete project, such as building permits, water use permits and other such permits. Integrated into the planning approval procedure are environmental impact assessments as well as decisions falling under nature conservation law. The planning approval order, however, is only the last step of a quite complex planning structure. The planning approval order usually has quite a narrow focus, licensing a network expansion only for several kilometres (for legal problems concerning the definition of grid parts as object of a planning procedure, see Bundesverwaltungsgericht, Deutsches Verwaltungsblatt 2010, pp. 1300–1304). Therefore, German planning law contains an additional instrument, the socalled regional planning procedure (Raumordnungsverfahren, ROV), which takes a broader perspective, but leaves the clearing of the detailed route of an electrical line for the planning approval order. A special feature of the regional planning procedure is that it does not have an external legal effect on the legal positions of private persons. It has only internal and constrained binding effects for the planning authorities (coordination through duties to consider [Ber€ ucksichtigungspflichten]). Therefore, its results are not the object of judicial review. Actions of affected private parties are constrained to attacking the final planning approval order. The regional planning procedure falls into the competences of authorities for general spatial planning and most L€ ander allow the determination of rough routes for electrical lines also in comprehensive regional or statewide plans. However, in reality these plans regularly do not entail such grid routes and leave the allocation of rough routes to the regional planning procedure. In any event, all these general spatial planning instruments are constrained to the territory of a respective Bundesland. Although the Bundesl€ ander are obliged to cooperate in these matters, nationwide coordination of electrical lines proves to be complicated, troublesome and inefficient or even ineffective. In contrast to other fields of infrastructure planning, energy law did not until quite recently entail sector-specific instruments for nationwide network planning. This has only partly changed with the enactment of the Energieleitungsausbaugesetz (EnLAG). This law, however, describes only a few projects of very high importance and does not even allocate rough routes to these projects. Instead it only roughly describes the projects by naming their starting point and their end point. And even these are not laid out in a detailed manner. Overall, the EnLAG does not entail a comprehensive plan for the overall electric network.

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The last instrument that should be mentioned here are the European decisions concerning Transeuropean Networks (TEN) according to Art. 170–172 TFEU/ AEUV. These provisions do not provide legislative competences. Also, planning or licensing competences remain at member state level. Art. 171 TFEU authorises the EU only: – To establish guidelines which may especially identify projects of common interest, – To implement any measures that may prove necessary to ensure the interoperability of the networks, in particular in the field of technical standardisation or – To support mainly financially projects of common interest supported by member states. A special focus of these measures is the investment into interconnectors between national electrical networks, which proved to be a main obstacle to the European integration of national electricity markets (European Commission 2007b). In addition, TEN-E guidelines identify network expansions within member states that are needed for trans-European transits or cross-border exchange of electricity. Article 10 of the TEN-E guidelines authorises the Commission to designate, in agreement with the member states concerned, a European coordinator for projects of common interest that encounter significant delays or implementation difficulties. The coordinator does not have formal legal powers but may assist the competent national authorities by promoting the European dimension of the project and the cross-border dialogue between the project promoters and the persons concerned. He may also contribute to the coordination of national procedures for consulting the persons concerned. However, he is not only an assistant to the member states concerned as he is also an instrument to facilitate the Commission’s “oversight” of member states with regard to network expansion. Therefore, he has to submit a report to the Commission every year on the progress of the project(s) for which he has been designated European coordinator and on any difficulties and obstacles that are likely to result in a significant delay. Moreover, the Commission may request the opinion of the European coordinator when examining applications for Community funding for projects or groups of projects for which he has been designated. Overall, the actual legal provisions defining planning phases and planning responsibilities are quite similar to the legal concepts concerning the planning of railway tracks. Therefore, informal modifications which are identified by empirical studies in this field of law can be expected also in the field of electrical network planning although no in-depth empirical studies exist for those until now. Characteristics of practice in railway track planning are: – A strong factual fixation on very early stage informal decisions on the location of tracks for all subsequent formal planning procedures, – A dominant influence of (private) project promoters on decisions about track alternatives and – A dysfunctional modification of the regional planning procedure (Raumordnungsverfahren) to a quite detailed quasi-sectorial planning procedure (Quasi-Fachplanungsverfahren).

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Hypothetical practice of grid planning TEN guidelines

ACER control

Network planning

ENTSO investment plans

Regional investment plans

BNA grid expansion model

EnLAG

?

State-wide planning

BNA grid expansionmodel

BMWi report TSO investment plans

Regional planning

BNA report Informal decisions

Gross planning

§ 9 EEG; §…

TSO application documents

Detailed planning

Regional planning. procedure

TSO draft Planning approval order

Spatial planning

Sector-specific planning

TSO invest. budget applic.

TSO corporate planning

BNA control Economic planning

Fig. 8.2 Hypothetical planning practice

All these issues have negative effects on the transparency of procedures and their potential to produce acceptance from the general and affected public. Figure 8.2 gives an outline of the expected modifications of the formal legal concept:

8.4.2

The Status Quo of Investment Regulation as Part of Economic Energy Regulation

Network expansion is not only an issue for planning and licensing law. Equally important are instruments in energy economic law that will motivate and/or steer private investments by transmission system operators (TSOs). Unbundling duties, which are an important component of the latest EU energy package, provide ambivalent investment incentives (Sect. 8.4.2.1). Rather dysfunctional are punctual investment duties, which are part, for instance, of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act [Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz, EEG] (Sect. 8.4.2.2). More appropriate are systematic investment duties (Sect. 8.4.2.2). They need a basis in planning. In this regard, the recent law as well as the third EU energy package contains several detailed approaches that lack coordination and an appropriate procedural arrangement (Sect. 8.4.2.3). Especially needed is a clear normative foundation for coordinating general and sector-specific planning law, as mentioned in the previous section, and the economic regulation of grid access tariffs (Sect. 8.4.2.4). Although

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the German regulatory agency (Bundesnetzagentur, BNetzA) agrees with its strategic steering function today, the so-called investment budgets, which represent the most important regulatory tool in this regard, do not provide a timely and stable investment basis.

8.4.2.1 Unbundling Through the Third Single Energy Market Package, the regulatory standards for the unbundling of transmission services have been intensified significantly (Schneider 2011b:} 2 para. 45–46, 48 et seqq.). The new rules for ownership unbundling as well as those for the alternative models of an independent system operator (ISO) and independent transmission operator (ITO) were justified particularly with the so far deficient transnational expansion of infrastructure. The unbundling of vertically integrated companies can eliminate disincentives for anticompetitive waivers of investment and ensure incentives from expectable rates of return on investments a relatively higher status in a network operator’s economic considerations. Nevertheless, congestion revenues and risks regarding the rate of return on investments can cause converse incentives even for unbundled network operators. A major problem concerning investment policies of unbundled network operators is that strategic investment incentives for the superior marketing of new power generation capacities are irrelevant or at least less relevant for them. As big companies, which have been vertically integrated up to now, invest increasingly in offshore wind power generation, such strategic incentives for network expansion are at least not to be left out of consideration. TSOs are normatively assigned the responsibility for the overall system, but they are only able to discharge this responsibility in liberalised and functionally differentiated structures of energy supply under very complex conditions. An investment promoting effect through progressive unbundling can be expected to a certain extent. This implies that unbundling must be accompanied by other regulatory tools. 8.4.2.2 Network Investment Duties for TSOs The legislator has good reason not to rely on unbundling requirements alone (which have yet to be completely implemented in Germany), but rather to consider explicit investment duties as well. It is necessary to differentiate between punctual and systemic duties. Duties from entitlements of individual operators of generating plants under private law are referred to as punctual duties. Such entitlements are regulated in detail by } 9 EEG, which is elucidated exemplarily below. Whereas these punctual investment duties have to be enforced bilaterally in civil court proceedings on the occasion of specific conflicts, systemic investment duties from }} 11, 12 EnWG refer to the overall need-based expansion of network capacities. The acquittal of a systemic investment duty is intended by the interaction of reflexive governance and the powers of the regulatory body, as analysed below. Punctual Investment Duties, for Instance in } 9 EEG If network bottlenecks restrict grid access for electricity producers from renewable energy sources, network operators are obliged according to } 9 EEG to optimise,

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boost and expand their network immediately. They are exempted from this obligation in cases of economic unreasonableness. In the event that the grid system operator violates these obligations, those interested in feeding in electricity may demand compensation for the damage incurred. The network operator may apportion the cost of network expansion according to the general rules concerning access fees. It is noteworthy that the equalisation mechanism amongst TSOs according to } 36 EEG does not cover investment costs originating from the duties under } 9 EEG. Only additional costs for underground cable, which are designated pilot projects according to the EnLAG, will be equalised amongst TSOs (} 2 IV EnLAG). Like other provisions, } 9 EEG provides that a grid system operator shall not be obliged to optimise, boost or expand his grid system if this is economically unreasonable. According to a general opinion, this test involves a macroeconomic perspective and not only a test from the perspective of a single grid operator (Sch€afermeier 2009:} 9 EEG Rn. 16ff.). This macroeconomic approach is certainly correct, but it raises severe prognostic difficulties and other complex issues. Thereby issues are involved that are beyond the interests of the grid operator and those interested in feeding in electricity, and they cannot be appropriately tackled in civil court procedures used today to implement this punctual investment duty. This is why the courts (BGH 2008, 2009), in line with remarks in the legislative process, use quite a rough simplification by stating that an expansion is economically reasonable as long as the expansion costs do not exceed 25% of the investment costs for the respective generation facility. This is, of course, not a real macroeconomic test, but critics (Sch€afermeier 2009:} 9 EEG Rn. 18ff., Ehricke 2010:} 9 Rn. 47ff., Salje 2009:} 5 Rn. 56f, 60) have failed so far to present alternatives that can be managed in civil court proceedings. Systemic Investment Duties According to }} 11, 12 EnWG According to } 11 EnWG (Energiewirtschaftsgesetz ¼ German Energy Act), grid operators are obliged to optimise, boost and expand their grid systems in line with actual or expected demand as long as this is economically reasonable (S€acker 2009). This general obligation is reinforced for Transmission System Operators € (TSO; Ubertragungsnetzbetreiber) in } 12 EnWG stating that they have to ensure permanently that the transmission grid can serve all demands and contribute to the security of supply. In addition, TSOs have to provide to operators of connected grids all information needed for a coordinated expansion. In contrast to the punctual investment duties under the EEG mentioned above, investment duties under the EnWG have a systematic nature. They exist not only when an actual concrete demand emerges. Instead, the TSOs have to produce and implement anticipatory investment plans. In order to enable TSOs to forecast future demand, all other actors in the energy markets are obliged to provide all relevant information (} 12 IV EnWG). A matter of dispute is the legal allocation of responsibilities for investments. Some commentators highlight prerogatives of the TSOs, thereby restricting the competences of the BNetzA (Schumacher 2009, p. 252). More convincing is the

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position that the BNetzA can at least intervene according to } 65 EnWG if a TSO does not fulfil his or her investment duties under }} 11 I 1; 12 III EnWG. Nevertheless, detailed regulatory interventions are due to the complexities of network expansions that are quite unlikely in reality (Bourwieg 2010:} 11 Rn. 37, 31). This is why even a failed Commission proposal for a directive on security of electricity supply did not provide original, but only derivative powers for investment orders. Such derivative investment orders are based on investment plans established by the TSO itself and sanction failures to implement such plans (European Commission 2003, p. 13f.). Correspondingly, the recent EnLAG provides only a binding declaration of demand and of conformity of a project with the objectives of } 1 EnWG, i.e., ensuring a safe, cost-effective, consumer-friendly, efficient and environmentally friendly supply of power as well as efficient and unrestricted competition and the safeguarding of an effective and reliable operation of power grids. In summary, systematic investment duties under }} 11, 12 EnWG are certainly more appropriate than the punctual duties described above. However, even their steering capacity is low (Schumacher 2009, p. 252) without complementary planning arrangements. The actual legislation focuses on the investment plans of the TSOs as an instrument of reflexive steering under different forms of oversight by other market actors or authorities.

8.4.2.3 Investment Planning Duties of TSOs as an Instrument of Reflexive Steering Corporate Investment Planning Duties According to German Energy Law According to } 12 IIIa 1 EnWG, every 2 years TSOs have to produce a report about the state of their grid system and investment plans. On request, they have to present this report to the BNetzA. This underlines the reflexive steering approach. However, other provisions oblige the BNetzA to request the TSO reports as they serve as a basis for reporting duties of the BNetzA itself (} 63 IV, IVa EnWG) or of the Federal Ministry of Economics (}} 63 I; 51 EnWG). According to } 12 IIIa 3 EnWG, the BNetzA is competent to request rapid TSO reports on certain network components if it has information about concrete capacity deficits which may follow from a vulnerability analysis conducted by a TSO pursuant to } 13 VII EnWG. In 2009, a new provision in } 12 IIIa 2 EnWG strengthened the steering potential of the periodic TSO reports. The investment plan of the report must now designate specific projects and must define the time frames for the implementation of these projects. Thereby, TSOs are forced to a more advanced form of planning and the BNetzA obtains at least starting points for a more intensive control of network investments. Reform Steps Under the Third Energy Package Like the German energy law, the EU energy law establishes or at least assumes a system responsibility of TSOs (Art. 12 Dir. 2009/72/EC). Under the Third Energy package this responsibility will be concretised in new planning instruments with a regional or even a EU-wide scope (Art. 12 and 8 (10) Reg. 714/2007). The new

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planning instruments will have to be implemented by new TSO organisations and complement the corporate investment plans on the national level mentioned above (for further details: Hirsbrunner 2010; Schneider 2011a, pp. 30–32). Pursuant to Art. 4 Elec. Reg, all TSOs shall cooperate at EU level through the ENTSO for Electricity, in order to promote inter alia a sound technical evolution of the European electricity transmission network. The ENTSO for Electricity shall adopt inter alia a non-binding Community-wide 10-year network development plan, including a European generation adequacy outlook, every 2 years (Art. 8 Elec. Reg). The European generation adequacy outlook shall cover the overall adequacy of the electricity system to supply current and projected demands for electricity for the next 5-year period as well as for the period between 5 and 15 years from the date of that outlook. The European generation adequacy outlook shall build on national generation adequacy outlooks prepared by each individual transmission system operator. The Community-wide network development plan shall, in particular: – Build on national investment plans, taking into account regional investment plans, and, if appropriate, Community aspects of network planning including the guidelines for trans-European energy networks; – Regarding cross-border interconnections, also build on the reasonable needs of different system users and integrate long-term commitments from investors; and – Identify investment gaps, notably with respect to cross-border capacities. A review of barriers to the increase of cross-border capacity of the network, arising from different approval procedures or practices, may be annexed to the Community-wide network development plan. While preparing the network codes, the draft Community-wide network development plan, the ENTSO for Electricity, shall conduct an extensive consultation process, at an early stage and in an open and transparent manner, involving all relevant market participants, and, in particular, the organisations representing all stakeholders (Art. 10 Elec Reg.). This consultation shall aim at identifying the views and proposals of all relevant parties during the decision-making process. Art. 9 Elec. Reg. establishes a monitoring procedure by setting up the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). Therefore, ENTSO shall submit a draft Community-wide network development plan, including information regarding the consultation process, to ACER for its opinion. Within 2 months, ACER shall provide a duly reasoned opinion as well as recommendations to the ENTSO for Electricity and to the Commission where it considers that the draft Communitywide network development plan does not contribute to non-discrimination, effective competition, the efficient functioning of the market or a sufficient level of cross-border interconnection open to third-party access. In line with a general approach to foster liberalisation through regional cooperation, Art. 12 Elec. Reg. provides that a TSO shall establish regional cooperation within the ENTSO. In particular, they shall publish a regional investment plan every 2 years, and may take investment decisions based on that regional investment plan. This last provision shows the general characteristic of EU investment regulation, which highlights self-regulation and cooperation in combination with complex

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arrangements for inter-organisational and multi-level consultation and consolidation. Thereby, EU energy law acknowledges (1) that network expansions can hardly be ordered by public authorities without the knowledge of market participants and (2) that the EU itself has only limited competences and resources to regulate network expansions. Another aspect of the third energy package is the at least partly intensified investment controls found at the national level. Quite rigid rules apply to the third unbundling model, the so-called independent transmission operator (ITO), which was included into the electricity directive on a German initiative. For the other models (ownership unbundling and independent system operator) only very vague planning duties are laid down in the directive. It seams to be unclear whether the ITO alternative will be of real practical relevance. Therefore, the respective rules shall be discussed only briefly. Art. 22 of the directive obliges the member states to establish a duty for ITOs to present every year a 10-year network development plan which may serve as a basis for detailed orders by national regulatory authorities against the ITO to implement the envisaged network investments. These provisions use a regulatory technique that was also proposed in the failed directive on security of supply discussed above, and is to some extent already used in } 12 IIIa 3 EnWG.

8.4.2.4 Investment Incentives and Securing Investments as an Aspect of Price Regulation TSOs are private enterprises. As such, they will invest in network expansion only if a sufficient profit can be expected. On the other hand, TSOs are monopolists and price regulation has to prevent monopoly rents. In order to achieve a balanced solution for this complex situation, the German legislator combines an efficiencyoriented price-cap regulation with exceptions for so-called non-influenceable cost fractions (} 21a I, IV EnWG). The specific regulatory instrument to exempt certain investment costs from the general efficiency incentives scheme are so-called investment budgets pursuant to } 23 Incentive Regulation Ordinance (Anreizregulierungsverordnung, ARegV) (for further details see Schneider 2011a, pp. 33–37). Investment Budgets and Network Expansion Plans of Regulatory Authorities A TSO can apply for an investment budget from the BNetzA for all network expansion that stabilises the overall system or fosters national and international network integration and fulfils the requirements of } 11 EnWG (see above). Certain investment project categories that fulfil these requirements are listed in } 23 I ARegV. Relevant in the context of integrating electricity from renewable energy sources are the following project categories: Investments for the integration of generation installations using renewables; certain underground cables; usage of rope temperature monitoring, high-temperature conductor ropes or high-voltage direct current transmission lines; and connectors to offshore wind parks. The BNetzA has to decide whether the proposed project falls into one of the investment categories of } 23 AReGV and has to prove the cost efficiency of a proposed investment. }} 23 IV; 22 II 3 ARegV provide that the BNetzA shall use a benchmark analysis to prove the cost efficiency of a proposed project.

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The ordinance defines this benchmark analysis as an optimisation exercise on the basis of a network expansion model, which shall combine efficiency standards and forcing of innovations with the acknowledgement of path dependencies of grid investments. Unfortunately, the BNetzA has not yet been able to present such a network expansion model (BNetzA 2009, p. 4f.). Instead, the BNetzA defines certain criteria in an informal guideline, which leaves the organisation a considerable margin of appreciation. At least the BNetzA assumes that projects can regularly be awarded an investment budget if a planning approval order has been issued or if a project is listed in the EU TEN-E guidelines, the EnLAG or in the so-called DENA I-analysis (DENA 2005) (BNetzA 2009, p. 4f.). Interestingly, the BNetzA does not mention the network expansion model in its 2010 guideline on investment budgets even though in its 2009 guidelines, it emphasised the importance of this model. Although the network expansion model would certainly be of high importance for the evolution of the network and for all market actors, the procedure to establish the model is not structured legally. }} 23 IV; 22 II ARegV provide only limited guidance by stating that the model shall reflect the state of scientific knowledge. This approach is certainly much too technocratic. The model cannot avoid reflecting political positions on certain issues. The network expansion model shares characteristics with the technical guidelines used in the legal framework for immission control. The procedure to establish the model should be framed by law and should include formal consultations of relevant stakeholders. Additionally, the establishment of a comprehensive network expansion model for purposes of economic regulation must be coordinated with planning instruments that take a broader view by taking into account non-economic interests or demands of land use beyond the energy industry. The recent practice of avoiding such an ambitious procedure and substituting it by a kind of muddling-through policy is no longer acceptable as the transmission system is facing a major evolution under the forces of liberalisation and integration of renewables. A minor point of discussion is the timing of the administrative procedure to award investment budgets. Without going into quite technical details, one has to acknowledge that the BNetzA has an interest in taking its decision as late as possible in order to base its decision on information that is as accurate and comprehensive as possible. However, this conflicts with the interests of TSOs to minimise regulatory risks with regard to investments as early as possible. Investment Incentives Through Regulatory Holidays? In order to provide investment incentives for new cross-border interconnectors, Art. 17 Elec. Reg. allows that these may, upon request, be exempted from obligations concerning congestion management or from price regulation (D€auper 2009, p. 220). Competent to grant such exemptions are the national regulatory authorities of the affected member states. In order to highlight EU interests, ACER may submit an advisory opinion to those regulatory authorities. In contrast, such regulatory holidays are not provided for in the case of national network expansions. As shown above, German law provides a special regulatory

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instrument by establishing investment budgets. However, investment budgets are awarded only if an investment is accepted by the BNetzA as cost-efficient. Moreover, the budgets also restrict the options of TSOs to raise access tariffs. Although the Electricity directive does not prohibit explicitly regulatory holidays for such investments, a recent judgement of the European Court of Justice (C-424/07) prohibiting regulatory holidays in the field of telecommunication networks seems to be transferable to the energy sector.

8.4.3

Concepts for a Reform of Planning, Licensing and Regulating of Network Expansion

8.4.3.1 National Concepts With a two-stage planning process and a standardised evaluation scheme for the choice between overhead power lines and underground cables, Swiss law provides an instructive model in order to develop options to reform the German energy law (for further details, see Schneider 2011a, pp. 38–49). The reform options discussed below follow the constitutional framework and are based on the following principles: – Gradation of planning proceedings with transparent task assignments without double examination, – Gradation of planning proceedings with adequate arrangements for participatory involvement of the public and the affected parties, – Strengthening of European and national interests in relation to regional interests with regard to the determination of line routes, – Improved coordination between spatial planning, sector-specific planning and network regulation and – Flexible improvement of proceedings in order to obtain an adequate process design. As a fundamental reform model, a two-stage sectoral planning for strategic transmission investment projects is proposed (for further details, see Schneider 2011a, pp. 57–62). The first stage would be a newly introduced federal transmission € network plan (Bundesfachplan Ubertragungsnetz). This plan would have the following functions: determining projects of national interest according to special demands, path mapping and debating possible alternatives. The federal specific planning would need to be designed to serve as an administrative planning process headed by the federal authorities and a governing final decision by the federal government. The second step would consist in the sector-specific planning approval order according to existing law. In this reform model, the regional planning procedure is limited to a supplementary role for the planning of conductive construction projects of minor relevance or complexity of planning and that are not included in the federal sector-specific planning. Coordination with general spatial planning would be part of the procedure for drafting the federal transmission network plan.

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According to the Swiss experiences, it is beneficial to involve at an early stage the central stage holders as an ongoing active coordinative and advisory group formed of representatives of: the transmission network operators, the important network users consisting of electricity consumers as well as producers or traders, and the nationally operating environmental associations and associations of ecological conservation. There would be interactions with the given capital budgeting of the transmission network operators as well as with the regulatory network expansion model which serves as a basis for the approval of the investment budgets by the federal network agency (BNetzA). According to the presented concept, the federal transmission network plan would be a legally required plan of the executive, affecting spatial development. On account of this, the federal sector-specific planning shall include a strategic environmental impact assessment according to directive 2001/42/EC, as well as an assessment of the implications for the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora according to directive 92/43/EEC. This corresponds to the function of the procedure: evaluating and choosing between alternative large-scale corridors and contributes to its capacity for winning acceptance by affected parties. Concerning the subsequent planning approval order procedure, no basic modifications arise from the prevailing legal position. An obligation of planning approval for all high-tension power lines, regardless of whether they are constructed as overhead lines or underground cable, seems worth considering. Such an expansion of the obligation of planning approval orders would facilitate the definition of comprehensive planning segments and the installation of regulatory competence centres in the federal states. The large-scale choice of line corridors offered by federal sector-specific planning is presumably not to be successfully contested on the level of planning approval and in the subsequent trial apart from in rare individual cases. This is acceptable even in terms of legal protection, as the achievement of classification by federal sector-specific planning, compared to present informal route surveying processes, is combined with a position that is procedurally substantially improved, for instance, for environmental concerns in the federal sector planning procedure. This would be in line with the frequently claimed basic legal protection provided through proceedings. Consequently, the following planning structure arises (Fig. 8.3): The choice between overhead power line construction and underground cables is a politically charged and locally conflict–laden issue. In order to relieve the regional local enforcement authorities at least partially of the related assessment decisions, it appears useful to test the tool of a standardised evaluation scheme as implemented in Switzerland, and to utilise it permanently in the case of success (Merker 2010). Such a scheme, or at least the development of a preferably uniform checklist used nationwide, may alleviate the administrative implementation of requirements in conservation law, especially regarding the evaluation of high-tension power line construction projects. Various starting points for the acceleration of planning approval order procedures have been discussed for a long time (Lecheler 2007; Schneller 2007;

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An ambitious reform scenario: two step sector-specific planning of (strategic) power lines TEN-guidelines

ACER-control

Network planinng

ENTSO – investment plans

regional investment plans

State wide planning

coordination

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expansion model

BMWi-report

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TSO – draft Planning approval order

Spatial planning

EIA/FFH-IA

TSO –Invest. Budget applic.

Sector-specificplanning

TSO-corporate planning

BNA control Economic regulation

Fig. 8.3 Plan of a two-step planning procedure

Schr€oder 2007; Schumacher 2009, p. 256). The legislator has already been responsive to this discussion regarding several revisions, particularly in transport infrastructure planning law (Verkehrswegeplanungsrecht), but also regarding amendments to the remaining infrastructure planning law, including }} 43ff. EnWG (Energy Law Act). Therefore, there is only limited potential for further reform here, unless one wants to reduce elements of the proceedings that assure quality and acceptance, thereby possibly inviting delays due to political protests (Schneider 2011a, p. 64). Nevertheless, the administrative bodies’ keen awareness of society’s need for acceleration has certainly proved important (Ziekow et al. 2005, pp. 342–343). In this respect, major significance must be given to the public discussion about the requirement of network expansion. Moreover, tools such as decisional deadlines, administrative or private project managers and regulatory best practice guidelines for public hearing procedures may have accelerating effects. In contrast, the general dispensation of public hearing procedures that is often proposed by some politicians and interest groups seems to be less preferable (for further details, see Schneider 2011b, pp. 65–68).

8.4.3.2 European Concepts As shown above, the integration of electricity from renewable energy sources needs a transnational approach to network expansion. Therefore, EU reform options are an important aspect for this study.

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A major obstacle in this regard are the limited legislative and even more so administrative competences for EU organs in the field of spatial planning. Commentators have shown that the new energy competence under Art. 194 TFEU introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon does not enlarge the powers of EU organs significantly (Kahl 2009:608 et seqq., Schneider 2011b:} 2 para. 10–11). Proposals for treaty revisions go beyond the scope of this study. These limited competences are reflected in the very recent proposals of the EU Commission for Energy infrastructure priorities for 2020 and beyond (European Commission 2010a). Although the Commission gives a very instructive analysis of future investment demands in order to build up an integrated European energy network as a precondition inter alia for a better integration of electricity production from renewable energy sources, the concrete instruments on the EU level for implementing this vision remain limited. A first instrument is the additional funding of projects of European interest under the TEN-E programme. However, EU funds are, of course, limited compared to the financial resources needed in this respect. Nevertheless, the updated TEN-E project list serves at least as an influential instrument of steering by informing national decision-makers about European priorities. The second major issue of the Commission’s communication are project authorisations. According to the Commission, permitting and cross-border cooperation must become more efficient and transparent to increase public acceptance and speed up delivery. A first instrument to achieve these objectives are regional platforms of state and private actors to facilitate the planning, implementation and monitoring of the identified priorities and the drawing up of investment plans and concrete projects. Examples include the Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) for the North Seas Countries’ Offshore Grid Initiative (NSCOGI). The Commission states that improved decision-making could be addressed through the following tools, which might be part of a formal legislative act of EU law: – The establishment of a contact authority (“one-stop shop”) per project of European interest, serving as a single interface between project developers and the competent authorities involved at national, regional and/or local level, without prejudice to their competence. This authority would be in charge of coordinating the entire permitting process for a given project and of disseminating the necessary information about administrative procedures and the decision-making process to stakeholders. Within this framework, member states would have full competence to allocate decision-making power to the various parts of the administration and levels of government. For cross-border projects, the possibility of coordinated or joint procedures should be explored in order to improve project design and expedite their final authorisation. – The introduction of a time limit for a final positive or negative decision is to be taken by the competent authority. – Schedules could provide for an early and effective involvement of the public in the decision-making process, and citizens’ rights to appeal the authorities’ decision could be clarified and strengthened, while being clearly integrated in the overall time frame.

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– Guidelines may increase the transparency and predictability of the process for all parties involved (ministries, local and regional authorities, project developers and affected populations). – Minimum requirements regarding the compensation of affected populations could be included. – For offshore cross-border energy installations, maritime spatial planning should be applied to ensure a straightforward, coherent but also more informed planning process (on problems of the state of play, see Schneider 2010). – In order to enhance the conditions for the timely construction of necessary infrastructure, the possibility of providing rewards and incentives, including of a financial nature, to regions or member states that facilitate timely authorisation of projects of European interest should be explored. Other mechanisms for benefit sharing inspired by best practice in the renewable energy field could also be considered. These proposals are certainly helpful, but nevertheless limited as the Commission has to acknowledge that for instance the idea of a “one-stop-shop” conflicts with the complex procedural and organisational structure of planning law partly required even by EU environmental law. Therefore, this senseful instrument is restricted to coordination of several actors, but will not substitute the decisionmaking powers of national authorities. It will mainly serve as a project manager, as proposed above with regard to the national level.

8.4.4

Summary and Conclusions

With respect to central storage technologies, key legal aspects concern definitions of the term and attribution both de lege lata and de lege ferenda. It is decisive to determine—mainly based upon factual and technical findings—whether and to what extent respective central storage technologies shall be attributed to the supply layer or to the grid layer. The respective position taken governs to a large extent the legal assessment of civil law matters such as non-discriminating use and access as well as unbundling. In particular, the recourse to general and specific access duties, as well as the stipulated grid use regarding access, depends upon the concrete design of central storage technologies and their respective legal classification. These findings are valid for both the EnWG and the antitrust law (GWB and Art. 101 et seqq. AEUV). In addition, all disincentives for investments into storage capacities entailed in the recent law should be abolished. A special planning regime for the utilisation of underground resources would help to mitigate potential conflicts of interest, first between users of such underground resources and second between them and owners of the landed property. Special positive incentives beyond financial support through research budgets appear to be disputable. For decentralised storage systems, key legal aspects refer to e-mobility, whereas a focus is on contractual issues and on data privacy laws. The contractual networks, as well as the individual contractual relationships, have to be taken into account in respect to duties of care and spheres of risk, duties to cooperate and to

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inform as well as the conditions of use. Furthermore, the purpose of the relevant network will have a huge impact, on the grounds of }} 307 et seqq. BGB, the legal regime regarding standard terms and conditions. In addition, the use of electromobiles leads to important questions concerning data protection, e.g., the possibility to create far-reaching and extremely detailed individual profiles. The electricity supply via modern distribution grids gives way to a whole new legal dimension of data protection in respect to the amount and quality of data ascertained and processed. Thus, a main focus will be on the examination of whether and to what extent the legal regime regarding data protection de lege lata is ready to deal with the quantity and quality of this data, the new ways of ascertaining it, processing and use, and its suitability for safeguarding the concerned legally protected interests. Furthermore, new approaches to a solution within or—as appropriate—outside the legal framework of data protection have to be assessed. From a legal point of view, both smart grids and demand-side management are very likely to create a paradigmatic change from a closed market with clearly defined roles, stakeholders and processes to an open market with small providers and cooperation between purchasers and providers. In respect to an all-embracing and globally applied energy information network, the issues of data protection and contractual problems and challenges, regarding both network and individual aspects, have to be addressed. The state of play is very diverse and entails certain dysfunctional regulatory tools. Most problematic appear punctual investment duties such as those found in } 9 EEG. A more comprehensive and systematic approach is needed. On the national level, a fundamental reform model with a two-stage sectoral planning process for strategic transmission investment projects is proposed. An interesting option might be a standardised evaluation scheme, as implemented in Swiss decision-making processes, with regard to the choice between overhead power line construction and underground cables. In addition, some minor improvements to the final licensing process can be implemented, although the potentials are limited by the need to avoid delays caused by resistance from citizens. Also, the potential for reform on the EU level is, according to the recent treaties, limited, although certainly better coordination on this level would be useful.

9

Conclusions and Recommendations

9.1

Overall Aim and Results

The overall aim of restructuring Germany’s and Europe’s electricity systems is to reduce their environmental burden to a level that is viable for long-term future application. This requires that a system be subsequently developed which, based on current knowledge, can cope simultaneously with fundamental demands for economic efficiency, environmental friendliness and supply security. Making use of existing scenarios, this study sketches out such a system with the focus laid on auxiliary systems such as energy storage methods and network extensions. The overall aim of the study has been to discuss technologies that can balance electricity in energy systems and that can serve as enabling technologies for the integration of large quantities of renewable energies in the power supply system. The aspects analysed include the demand for balancing technologies, available technologies, and economic, legal, social and environmental facets of their market introduction. From the analysis, it is clear that various efforts must be made to change the current system. Expansion using renewable energy sources has to be supplemented by the further development and extensive implementation of auxiliary technologies. Following the assumptions of the scenarios with the highest penetration of renewable energies in the production of electrical power in Germany, in the period around 2040+ the power requirement for balancing supply and demand in the production of electrical power ranges up to about one-fourth of the peak power. According to different studies, an amount of up to about 1,700 GWh electrical energy is temporarily required to meet balancing needs. These gaps in the system have to be covered by CO2-free or at least CO2-poor options such as energy storage systems. Peak power stations, various kinds of energy storage systems, load management as well as regional and transnational energy exchange are competing options to cover the demand of balancing power and energy. All of these options have pros and cons; there is no one solution that fits all requirements. There are various drawbacks to these technologies: peak power stations have low operation times making them costly, and they usually produce CO2. Storage technologies are hard B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3_9, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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to predict for use in future scenarios, are typically quite expensive and their energy storage capability is limited. Load management is limited mainly to daily operations and will partly lead to restrictions of people’s individual comfort, and the comparably low monetary benefits do not justify sophisticated control technologies. The balancing of electricity supply and demand throughout Europe will require huge extensions of transmission networks. The expansion of network infrastructure will require the acceptance of European society. There are also many advantages to the various options: all of them are beneficial to a certain extent. Load management helps to lower peaks of residual power during the day, which means lowering the needed peak capacity and supporting a more constant operation of other production technologies. Peak power stations can easily be built and are flexible regarding their location. Storage facilities can use the peak production of renewable sources more or less for free, which means that less renewable energy is wasted. Regional and transnational balancing through transmission lines is an obvious option with moderate costs, which would in addition allow the building of plants to produce electricity from renewable sources at sites where they are most productive. Technological progress will be needed in the following areas: First, load management could become feasible within the next decade through technologies such as smart metering. Load management has the potential to cover around one-third of the balancing power demand. A second option is inter-regionally compensating regional shortages of supply from renewable sources in Europe. This, however, is strongly dependent on the development of renewable energies in the different countries and of an adequate infrastructure. Around 10% of German peak power, i.e., one-third of the balancing power, could be covered under the condition that the transmission network will be extended throughout Europe. Third, storage capacities will need to be extended. Pump storage capabilities should be used wherever possible. Other storage technologies, such as hydrogen production without or with methanisation, could help to integrate the provision and usage of energy for different applications such as, for example, vehicles. The remaining capacity can be covered by peak power stations, primarily by existing fossil fuelled power stations that are granted a prolongation of their lifetime.

9.2

Challenges and Recommendations

The requirements for balancing electrical energy in the system will increase with the rising share of electricity produced from renewable energies. Several challenges arise with trying to use low CO2 emission technologies such as energy storage systems to provide the stable electricity performance needed in different locations in Europe and at different time scales from seconds to days and weeks. In the following section, the major challenges identified in the study are listed and respective recommended actions derived from the analysis are presented. The section is subdivided into the aspect of technical infrastructure development (Sect. 9.2.1), framework conditions and organisational aspects (Sect. 9.2.2),

9.2

Challenges and Recommendations

215

including market conditions (Sect. 9.2.2.1) and support for the application of balancing technologies (Sect. 9.2.2.2).

9.2.1

Development of Technical Infrastructure

Challenge 1: Providing Sufficient Storage Capacity for Germany The potential for extending storage capacity for use in the electricity system by expanding currently used technologies, and particularly pumped hydro, are very limited within Germany. They are likely to be insufficient to cover the needs of a future energy system with a high penetration of renewable energies in the electricity sector (see Sects. 5.2, 5.3, 5.4, 5.5, 5.8, and 8.2.1.2). Recommendations Storage mix: Central storage technologies should be supported by applying demand side management (DSM), decentral storage structures and vehicleto-grid systems where possible and economic. Network restrictions may require coordination of the different options. Networking: Potentials in other countries, such as pumped hydro from Scandinavia, should be further developed, extended and used Europe-wide. Over-installation: It should be analysed to what extent other measures, such as implementing overcapacities of plants using renewable energy for electricity production, together with larger exchange of electricity between regions, could be installed or wind and solar power plants could be shut down temporarily, as alternatives to applying energy storage. Analysing further options: Alternative storage options should be further analysed. For instance, the gas network should be investigated for its storage potential, including the potential for hydrogen and methanised hydrogen production and usage. Avoiding disincentives: The existing regulatory framework entails several disincentives or even legal barriers, both for producers of electricity from renewable sources and transmission system operators, which are obliged by the German EEG to buy and market “renewable power”, to investing in storage facilities. Such legal disincentives must be abolished in order to convert power storage into an option to optimise the feed-in or marketing of “renewable power” according to market signals. Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) for cost reduction: Promising storage technologies should be developed further and their costs should be reduced in order to increase the storage potentials within Germany and Europe.

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9 Conclusions and Recommendations

Challenge 2: Realising Technical Potentials of Decentralised Options Load management or demand-side management respectively will have limited potential due to lack of user acceptance and low monetary incentives (see Sects. 5.3.3, 5.5, 7.1.1 and 8.3). Recommendations Automation: Automated technical solutions to control loads without restriction of user comfort should be developed. The focus here will be heating and cooling systems and electric vehicles in the private sector. Flexible tariffs: Flexible tariffs should be introduced to increase the awareness of the temporarily changing value of electrical energy from volatile renewable sources. Minimising data requirements: The amount of required data about the electricity consumption of individuals depends strongly on the conceptual realisation. These data collection requirements should be minimised in order to prevent scepticism concerning data protection conflicts. Additionally, adequate data protection regimes should be installed. RD&D – standardisation: Smart metering technology needs to be standardised, taking into consideration the mechanisms for automated load management including charging control of electric vehicles.

Challenge 3: Managing Environment and Resource Use Mineral resource availabilities and the relevance of environmental aspects change over time and may hamper the development of the required balancing technologies and their long-term application. In particular, modular battery technologies are highly constrained by the need to use specific mineral resources, which may not be produced sustainably and for which some production processes show relatively high environmental effects (see Sect. 5.7). Recommendations Green design: During the technology development phase, hindrances to large-scale application arising from resource use and environmental effects should be anticipated, bearing in mind the entire life cycle. Monitoring resource use and market: The specific resource requirements of chosen technologies and the respective markets should be continuously monitored. RD&D—mineral recycling and substitutes: If necessary, procedures for effective recycling of used materials should be developed and implemented as well as potential substitutes be investigated.

9.2

Challenges and Recommendations

217

Challenge 4: Providing Sufficient Network Capacity for Electricity Transport The lack of adequate transmission and distribution networks is a limiting factor for the integration of renewable energies. The capacity of existing distribution networks limit the load/supply management for the purpose of central balancing. Currently, there is insufficient communication and control infrastructure to make full use of decentralised balancing potential (e.g., demand-side management, including e-mobility). At present, the grid structure does not adequately link areas with potential renewable power generation with demand centres. Furthermore, existing transmission networks limit the access to storage locations and transnational balancing of electricity production from renewable energy resources (see Chap. 6 and Sect. 8.4). Recommendations Accelerating planning procedures: Planning procedures should be accelerated through the use of more structured mechanisms that consider how to balance among competing interests, avoid double examinations of identical issues in subsequent procedures, prevent bad coordination between applicable regulations, pay attention to multi-level governance systems, and allow for flexible improvement. Strengthening national and European interests: The regulation system should be reformed so as to strengthen national and European interests. Intensifying R&D via adjusted regulation: In the network sector, the development of new transmission technologies has to be intensified. As a first step, the R&D costs for transmission and distribution companies should be accepted as costs by the regulator. A certain percentage for R&D should be defined by the regulator to foster the development and implementation of new technologies. At the distribution level, new planning guidelines have to be accepted by regulators in order to support the implementation of stronger distribution grids gradually to be prepared for the foreseeable future requirements.

9.2.2

Framework Conditions and Organisational Aspects

9.2.2.1 Market Conditions for Balancing Technologies Challenge 5: Adequate Implementation of Balancing Technologies in Regulations Definitions and attributions in legal regulations are not sufficiently clear, particularly concerning central storage technologies to either grid management or power production level (see Sect. 8.2.1).

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9 Conclusions and Recommendations

Recommendations Clarifying definitions and attributions: Respective definitions and attributions should be clarified and storage technologies adequately considered in relevant regulations. Attributing storage facilities to grid management or at the power production level: The legislature should define whether energy storage facilities are to be attributed to the grid management level or the power production level.

Challenge 6: Designing a European Energy Market The European energy market is still very nationally focussed. There is no harmonised energy strategy and the necessary institutions and legal framework for promoting a rapid development of a renewable electricity system are underdeveloped (see Sects. 2.3.2, 6.1.2, 6.2.2, 6.2.3, 7.1 and 8.4.3.2). Recommendations International exchange of electricity: The transmission network should be strengthened, particularly with respect to international exchange of electricity. Low-carbon policy framework: A comprehensive, long-term oriented and far-reaching/challenging European low-carbon energy policy framework that goes beyond 2020 should be implemented. Integrating markets: Europe’s generation markets should be further integrated.

Challenge 7: Removing the Historical Heritage of Subsidies and Taxes Historically implemented subsidies and taxes, which are often technology specific, are disturbing the economic system and lead to inefficiency (see Sect. 7.2.4.3). Recommendations Ideal framework conditions: Ideally, the old, out-dated system of subsidies and taxes should be taken back stepwise and economically sound and consistent measures such as demonstration projects and startup subsidies for limited periods of time should be installed instead. Intermediate framework conditions: As an intermediate practical solution, balancing technologies such as storage systems should be considered for temporary subsidies and tax arrangements. This is important to counter historically emerged drawbacks.

9.2

Challenges and Recommendations

219

Challenge 8: Transforming Market Externalities to Costs and Earnings Balancing technologies deliver several system services and externalities, but no market exists where the total benefits can be transferred in the form of earnings for storage operators (see Sects. 7.1 and 7.2). Recommendations Internalising socio-economic benefits: Markets and compensation mechanisms should be established for balancing technologies and strategies according to revealed macro-economic/socio-economic benefits. Internalising system service costs: Power generators should pay for the system services, including grids, which they require to operate properly, e.g., through extra payments. Coordination: It should be reflected in how far new forms of coordination between different elements of the power supply system such as the production of electricity from renewables, grid management and using storage technologies may be valuable options to internalise benefits automatically via system optimisation. Business cases for operating balancing technologies: Potential business cases should be analysed in detail. System analysis—analysing potential benefits of balancing technologies: As a basis for political decisions, a detailed analysis of benefits from applying balancing technologies should be carried out.

Challenge 9: Handling New Complex Market Structures Due to the use of smart grids and demand-side management, there will be a paradigmatic change from closed markets (with clearly defined roles, stakeholders and processes) to open markets (with a large number of small providers as well as cooperation between purchasers and providers); thus we will find highly complex and unclearly defined new contractual structures, regarding both network and individual aspects. The resulting regulatory barriers will be relevant for each specific business model to be established (see Sects. 8.2.2.2, 8.3.1.2 and 8.3.2.2). Recommendations Analysing contractual challenges in the new markets: Contractual problems and challenges should be analysed in detail with respect to duties and conditions of new or changed actors or the same actors with changed roles.

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9 Conclusions and Recommendations

Developing general legal measures for the new markets: Legal measures need to safeguard an adequate level of data protection. With respect to network and individual contractual aspects, a definition of duties of care and spheres of risk may be a valuable option.

9.2.2.2 Specific Support for the Application of Balancing Technologies Challenge 10: Strengthening Scientific Advice on Balancing Options Current studies on energy system analysis are weak in terms of giving policy advice related to the design of framework conditions for a viable energy system with respect to the option of implementing storage technologies, e.g., expected market volume for balancing technologies (see Sects. 3.1.3, 3.2 and 3.3). Recommendations Extending energy system analysis: Intensive research should be carried out using full-scale scenario models, including coordinated cooperation of institutions using different, but often complementary model approaches. This continues to assume the same values for relevant parameters, sensitivity analysis with a consistent set of assumptions, model coupling, and model expansions to cover in total all relevant dimensions and aspects. Large-scale projects and institutionalisation: Large-scale projects on energy system modelling should be funded. Furthermore, the potential of institutionalising energy system modelling, allowing regular updating and monitoring of system developments in Europe should be analysed. The activities of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) can be taken as a procedural example. Strengthening the European perspective: For an extended energy system, modelling the European perspective should be mandatory, considering the different national politics. Assessing required installed power and energy capacity: As one major focus from the perspective of implementing technologies for balancing electricity demand and supply, the required installed storage power and capacity should be analysed in detail.

9.2

Challenges and Recommendations

221

Challenge 11: Adequately Supporting the Application of New Technologies New storage technologies are momentarily more expensive than existing alternative technologies due to their low scale economies (see Sects. 5.6 and 7.2). Recommendations Implementing startup subsidies: Startup subsidies should be implemented in order to promote the application of technologies that result, in the long run, in lower total costs or allow the meeting of strategic goals concerning environmental impact or dependencies on energy imports. These should be phased out automatically to the level of externality compensations and be based on market mechanisms. Investing in RD&D for storage systems: Investments in R&D and demonstration projects on storage systems should be increased.

Challenge 12: Adequately Supporting Long-Term Investments Currently, state-promoted technologies such as demand-side management (DSM), decentralised storage systems and vehicle-to-grid will prospectively be strong competitors for technologies with long lifetimes, which require investment security to be built such as pumped hydro or compressed air (see Sects. 2.4, 5.3, 5.6, 5.8, 7.1 and 7.2). Recommendations Reliable long-term conditions: Political decisions on boundary conditions on a national and an international level should be taken and conditions be reliably established for the long term. Sound basis for decisions: Decisions on boundary conditions should be based on sound results from extended energy system analysis (see Challenge 10).

Challenge 13: Handling Opposition to Large-Scale Projects Large-scale projects often lack public acceptance. Public acceptance issues related to the development of electricity networks as well as central storage systems, such as pumped hydro and underground hydrogen, will need to be addressed (see Sects. 2.3.2.8, 8.2.1.1, 8.4.1 and 8.4.3).

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9 Conclusions and Recommendations

Recommendations Adequate participation mechanisms: Mechanisms for adequate participation of affected parties and the wider public should be implemented in planning and licensing procedures. A special planning regime for underground resources: Especially for the usage of underground resources, it should be investigated in how far a special planning regime could help to mitigate potential conflicts of relevant interest groups. Measures for conflict resolution: Specific conflicts and ways of finding solutions, such as the provision of adequate compensation measures, should be further analysed and respective measures applied.

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Glossary

Allocation Economic term for the attribution of existing means (goods, production factors) to alternative applications (e.g., production of good A or B). Balance of the residual load The balance of the residual load as defined below is not identical to the specified concept of the balancing energy (see definition at the end). The residual load is usually covered by market products in hourly time frames. The appearing short-term and often even not predictable fluctuations of generation and demand can be balanced by ancillary services (control reserve). The transmission system operators are responsible for this balance. The control reserve demand can be dimensioned by the help of probabilistic convolution programs. The demand for future scenarios can be assessed. The balance of the residual load is the main part of our study. The market products in hourly time frames as well as the products for control reserve for shorter time frames are provided by large power plants, distributed controllable suppliers (e.g., micro- CHP), centralised and decentralised storage, the power import or load control. The balance of the residual load needs a temporal behaviour from seconds up to a seasonal range. Not all technical possibilities can be employed for the whole time frames. This study analyses the questions of which technical possibility offers which potential in which time frame, which value creation can be achieved, which regulatory and legal conditions have to be created and which environmental aspects have to be considered. Balancing energy According to the above definitions, control energy denotes the offered energy that is used in real-time in the case of frequency-sustainment methods to achieve a power balance in the total system. In comparison, balancing energy is defined as the energy that is used for balancing the deviations between the delivery and referral programmes of the individual market participants. In contrast to the costs of the reserve capacities, the offsetting of ex-post determined costs and revenues that depend on the use of secondary control B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

233

234

Glossary

reserve and minute reserve is done in the respective balancing group in quarter hourly time frames. For the invoicing, the respective balancing groups’ deviations will be metrologically collected by the balancing group manager in a defined accounting period. The pricing for the balancing energy is based on the determined costs and revenues for secondary control reserve energy and minute reserve energy for every quarter hour. The middle weighted fee as a basis for the accounting can be calculated by dividing this by the total sum of the used energy in every quarter hour. The balancing energy fee is symmetrical, which means that there is no price spread between positive and negative balancing group deviations. Control area The control area is the smallest unit of the interconnected system, which is equipped and run with a power-frequency control. The control area is the respective area of energy support in which a transmission system operator within the context of the ENTSO-E is responsible for primary control reserve, secondary control reserve and minute reserve. Each control area is specified physically by the locations at which interchange measurement of the secondary controller is performed within the interconnected system. Control area balance The control area balance is the sum of all deviations between the reported load schedules and the actual customer consumption and the actual supply of the power plants. Control bloc A control bloc includes one or more control areas that work together during the power-frequency control towards other involved control blocs of the system. The guide of the control bloc has to ensure the implementation of the sum schedules of the control bloc against all different control blocs. Additionally, he has to be able to reduce or increase the frequency to its set point value after frequency drifts. Control energy Control energy is the energy that is deployed for the compensation of power imbalances in the respective control area. Control energy correlates with the integral over time of the activated or called control reserve. Control reserve Control reserve means the power that is reserved in the net, typically by conventional power stations, in order to guarantee a balanced power. The control reserve and its demand are divided into the different market products: Primary control reserve, secondary control reserve and minute reserve (tertiary control reserve). The different types of control reserve are called by the respective transmission system operator in periods of up to five quarter hours. After that time, the market participants have to compensate missing power and energy with several market activities. The transmission system operators calculate the control reserve using probabilistic techniques, which consider, for example, forecasting errors, failure probability and load noise (including the short-term noise of renewable suppliers).

Glossary

235

The defined market products for control reserve have contractually fixed reliability and determinancy requirements. The activation has to be guaranteed in short time intervals. Due to these strict requirements it has been quite difficult to provide offers for these products from DSM, DR or virtual power plants. Cycle With regard to energy storage systems, a cycle is defined in the study as an equivalent nominal energy throughput. A certain number of partial cycles can add up to a cycle, if the total discharged energy equals the nominal energy content of the storage system. The typical operation for most storage systems is partial cycling, however, for the economic assessment ultimately the number of times the storage system is selling its available energy to the market is of relevance and this is expressed by the number of cycles. Demand response (DR) In principle, DR is based on the same mechanisms as DSM, except for the absence of a deterministic control option between aggregator and load. Instead, the aggregator obtains a specific load behaviour by means of incentives (such as, for example, flexible tariffs) and the loads react with a specific stochastic change in behaviour. The information technical effort is much smaller, whereas the responsiveness is far away from the quality that is needed for ancillary services. Demand-side management (DSM) Demand-side management indicates the optimal control of power demand or customer load for customers in the industry, in the trade or in private households. The difference to demand response is that targeted control signals are transmitted by means of communication technologies to the customers, which as far as possible (except for technical failures) react deterministically in response to that signal. DSM is used to adjust the load during periods of limited power generation (e. g., during times of wind calms) or during periods of high demand (peak load at lunchtime). In this case this adjustment is a part of market development. The economical effects of this flexibility have to be passed on to the customers with the help of special rates. In the future, all these actions should be processed using special electronic market places (see BMWi: E-Energy). The role of the aggregators should develop in such a way that it bundles the load control and prepares new products for the electricity market. Currently it is doubtful whether with the help of these mechanisms ancillary products such as control reserve should be aggregated and offered. The reason for this is that the communication technical control effort is extremely high and the revenue potentials due to the product design is lower than the revenue from normal trading operations, e.g., at the spot market. In this case, electrically powered vehicles can be treated as special loads. Controllable micro- generators in private households, for example micro-CHP, can be involved in this concept whereby this concept conflates with virtual power plant utilisation.

236

Glossary

While using DSM it is not possible to achieve a displacement of loads for several days. There is only the chance of reaching a displacement of loads in hourly time frames. In the course of the day, DSM can help to smooth the residual load and therefore to reduce the utilisation of peak load power plants. Distribution Distribution is the economic term for the attribution of existing means (goods, production factors) to individuals or groups of individuals (e.g. households) in an economy. Efficiency 1. A numerical value reflecting the ratio of gained outputs to applied inputs for a process. 2. The aim to realise the highest value of efficiency possible for the processes in focus. Efficient Characterisation of a process displaying a high efficiency. Energy-to-power ratio The energy-to-power ratio (E2P ratio) describes, for storage systems, the ratio between the installed energy capacity of a storage systems and the installed power for charging or discharging the storage systems. The unit of the E2P ratio is hours and shows directly how long the storage system can match power requirements and full power. In the basic definition, we assume a symmetric installed power for charging and discharging the storage system. In fact this is not always the case. If this is of relevance, it will be discussed explicitly. External Costs These are the costs caused by an activity of one economic subject which has a negative or positive influence on a second economic subject, but are not accounted for in the economic decision making of the originator. Major reasons for their occurrence are missing property rights of public goods, e.g. environmental media. Hydro storage The term “hydro storage” is used for hydropower plants with a dam to store water from natural feeders. These power plants can generate electric power on demand, but they have no pumps to absorb electric power from the grid by increasing the water level in the storage lakes. Hydrogen storage A “hydrogen storage” system is an electricity-in/electricity-out storage system using hydrogen as the storage medium. The hydrogen is generated by electrolysis from water. Power generation occurs in larger systems from hydrogen gas turbines and in smaller system by fuel cells. The hydrogen stays at the site of generation and is not used for any other purposes. Minute reserve/tertiary control Minute reserve replaces the secondary control reserve and, therefore, works for the restoration of the secondary control reserve band. The minute reserve from the providers is activated manually by the respective transmission system operator.

Glossary

237

Pareto-optimum This is a societal situation in which it is not possible to increase the welfare of one individual by re-allocation of resources without decreasing the welfare of a second individual. Plug-in hybrid Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) using an electrical drive train and an additional internal combustion engine (ICE). This allows the vehicle to achieve the same driving ranges as conventional cars. There are parallel hybrids, where the ICE can bring mechanical energy on the road besides the battery charging. In contrast, in serial hybrid electric vehicles the ICE is only acting as power generator at all times. This concept is often also called “vehicle with range extender”. Within this study we will not differentiate concerning parallel or serial hybrid vehicles, because from the point of view of the power grid the concepts are similar. Power-frequency control The power-frequency control describes a control process whereby the transmission system operators can maintain the mutually agreed electrical values at the boundaries of their control areas under normal operation and in particular under fault conditions. In this process, each transmission system operator endeavours, by means of an appropriate contribution within his own control area, to maintain both the interchange with other control areas within the agreed boundaries and the system frequency close to the set point value. Primary control reserve An interference-induced deviation from the main frequency, for example, a power plant failure, activates power within a few seconds at every primary-regulated machine. The regulators adjust the power until a balance between power generation and consumption has been achieved. The frequency stabilises on a quasi-stationary value, which differs from the set point value because of the static (proportionality factor) proportional working primary regulators. The use of primary control reserve is controlled automatically by the frequency deviation. It operates dependent of the power control of the generation unit and has to be available at any time. This means that power plants that offer primary control reserve have to keep this power permanent. The primary control reserve is provided in a way of solidarity by all synchronously connected control areas inside the ENTSO-E area and it is distributed according to the regulations of the ENTSO-E to the European control areas, according to their proportion of net power generation. Splitting the European integrated network into smaller subnets (control areas) during or after a failure should ensure that a necessary primary control reverse is available in every subnet and that there are suitable transmission capacities. Primary energy Energy content of natural resources and the environment usable for energy supply.

238

Glossary

Primary energy storage/primary battery Energy storage systems that can be discharged only once. No recharge is possible. Examples are power generators with fossil fuels or non-rechargeable batteries such as zinc-alkaline batteries. Pumped hydro “Pumped hydro” is used for storage systems that allow the generation of electric power from the water in the upper storage lake or the absorption of electric power from the grid by pumping water either from a river or a lower lake to the upper storage lake. The upper storage lake may have in addition natural feeders, but it can be also an artificial lake without any natural feeders. Residual load The residual load is usually defined as the difference between the required electrical power (customer load) and the fed-in power from renewable energy sources (including heat controlled CHP). The residual load is therefore the power that still has to be covered by conventional power plants, energy storage, the power import from neighbouring control areas, current controlled CHP and load reduction. Reserves The part of the natural (materialised) resources that can economically be mined. Resources Means for the production of goods and services, for instance produced capital, natural capital, working hours, soil, oil, natural gas, coal, and minerals. Secondary control reserve The secondary control reserve follows the primary control reserve. It has to be available in full, and permanent again within 5 min of activation. To achieve these targets, every participating generation unit has to be connected directly or indirectly via the main control room of the provider (e.g., merging different generators in one pool) to the power-frequency controller of the respective control area. Therefore, a centralised control system measures the present frequency drift to the set point value as well as the load flows at every substation and at every entry and exit point nearly every second. Based on these measured values, the set point guidelines for the secondary control reserve can be calculated and afterwards transmitted online to the generation units to reduce or increase the feed-in power corresponding to the current defaults of the central power-frequency controller. Socio-economic costs These are costs incurring to society due to not internalised external costs, for instance, an increase in cases of asthma due to decreased air quality. Sustainability Specific concepts for maintaining societal assets in the context of ensuring a just intergenerational distribution.

Glossary

239

Storage A storage facility in the study is equivalent to a technical system that can provide positive and/or negative control power to the grid. Therefore, all technologies beyond the classical storage systems that take up electrical energy and supply electrical energy are also considered in the study as synonyms of classical storage. Technologically neutral Policy measures are technologically neutral if no technology is preferred or discriminated against after taking into account all market imperfections (cf. Metcalf 2009). Tertiary control See minute reserve. Type days Scaled profiles (load and feed-in profiles) used to convert the annual energy quantities into hourly time-variation curves. Each representative year thus contains 3 days (Saturday, Sunday and one working day) of each season (winter, spring, summer and autumn). Twelve typical average days within a year result from this. Vehicles-to-grid (V2G) V2G means that, in contrast to the consideration of electrically powered vehicles as loads, it is also possible that these vehicles feed back energy into the supplying net or supply ancillary services (see control reserve). Therefore, the vehicle acts as a battery that is temporary connected to the energy network to support the network operations. The feedback of the energy requires a lot of technical safety installations in the vehicle, so that the electrically powered vehicles initially can be seen as controllable load in the case of DSM and DR. Virtual power plants A virtual power plant is an interconnection of small and medium-sized decentralised electric power plants, such as, for example, photovoltaic systems, small hydropower plants and biogas plants, but also small wind power plants and combined heat and power plants, for offering available power plant capacity within the electricity market. Present realisations of virtual power plants often bundle medium-sized combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) that supply building complexes with a centralised guidance and optimising system. As long as the marginal conditions of heat requirement and heat buffering are adhered to, the power generation can be controlled during the day. Therefore, the opportunity for power generating is only offered if the heat can be used or stored. As a result, only parts of the plant capacity are available as secured capacity during the year. Several public utilities are using virtual power plants to reduce the demand for balancing energy within the balancing group.

.

List of Authors

Droste-Franke, Bert, Dr.-Ing., Dipl.-Phys., studied physics with the second subject economics at the Universit€at G€ ottingen and the Universit€at Heidelberg, 1996 graduation with a diploma thesis on aircraft-based measurements of trace gases in the upper troposphere prepared at the Max-Planck-Institute for Nuclear Physics in Heidelberg, 2004 doctoral thesis in engineering science on the quantification of environmental damages as contribution to environmental accounting at the Universit€at Stuttgart. 1996–2006 scholarship and research assistant at Institut f€ ur Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER) of the Universit€at Stuttgart: working in/leading projects and consulting activities, amongst others for the European Commission, national institutions, and the Worldbank Group, in the area of the assessment of environmental impacts and damage costs caused by economic activities as well as developing further the widely-used integrated software tool “EcoSense” and working on model integration. Since 2006 project coordinator and researcher at the Europ€aische Akademie GmbH in interdisciplinary projects dealing with the implementation of energy technologies aiming at a viable future energy system, particularly with respect to electricity supply. Research areas: technology assessment with focus on energy systems; environmental physics; environmental economics. Paal, Professor Dr. Boris P., M.Jur. (Oxford), holds a Chair in Civil Law and Business Law, Media and Information Law and is Director of the Institute of Media and Information Law at the University of Freiburg. Paal graduated with the First State Exam in Law, Dept. I: Private Law (1999) and holds the degree of a doctor in Law (2001) from the University of Konstanz. He studied European Law and Comparative Law as a postgraduate at Oxford University, Magdalen College, and holds the degree of a Magister Juris (2001) from Oxford University. During his legal clerkship at the Higher Regional Court D€ usseldorf, Paal worked with major laq firms such as Hoelters&Elsing and Hengeler Mueller; he completed the Second Legal State Exam in Law in 2003. Afterwards he worked as a senior research assistant and prepared his habilitation thesis on Competition Law and Media Law at the universities of Konstanz (2004) and Heidelberg (2004–2008). In 2009 Paal was granted the venia legendi for “Civil Law, Commercial Law, Business Law, International Private Law and Media Law” by the University of B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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List of Authors

Heidelberg. Also in 2009 he was appointed a full Professor of Law for Civil Law and Business Law, Media and Information Law in Freiburg. Paal’s main areas of research are Civil Law, Business Law, Media Law and International Private Law. Rehtanz, Professor Dr.-Ing. Christian, received his diploma degree in electrical engineering at the TU Dortmund University, Germany, in 1994 and his Ph.D. in 1997. In 2003 he received the venia legendi in electrical power systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ). From 2000 on he worked at ABB Corporate Research, Switzerland. He became head of technology for the global ABB business area of power systems in 2003 and director of ABB Corporate Research in China in 2005. Since 2007 Rehtanz has been head of the Institute of Power Systems and Power Economics at the TU Dortmund University. In addition he has been scientific advisor of the ef.Ruhr GmbH, a joint research company of the three universities of Bochum, Dortmund and Duisburg-Essen (University Alliance Metropolis Ruhr), since 2007. He is Adjunct Professor at the Hunan University in Changsha, China. Rehtanz’ research activities in the field of electrical power systems and power economics include technologies for network enhancement and congestion relief like stability assessment, wide-area monitoring, protection, and coordinated network-control as well as integration and control of distributed generation and storages. He holds the MIT World Top 100 Young Innovators Award 2003 and is author of more than 150 scientific publications, three books and 17 patents and patent applications. Sauer, Universit€atsprofessor Dr. rer. nat. Dirk-Uwe, born in Mannheim in 1969, studied physics at the Universit€at Darmstadt from 1989 to 1994. He accomplished his diploma thesis from 1992 to 1994 at the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE in Freiburg (Breisgau) on “Modelling and simulation of systems and components of autonomous photovoltaic power supply systems”. After that he worked as research scientist and senior scientist at Fraunhofer ISE until 2003, being head of the group “Storage systems” from 2000 to 2003. In parallel, from 2001 to 2003, Sauer was head of the interdisciplinary working group on “Off-grid and rural electrification” and managing director of the “Club for rural electrification”. In 2003 he received his doctorate (Dr. rer. nat.) at the Universit€at Ulm. The topic of his thesis was “Optimisation of the usage of lead-acid batteries in photovoltaichybrid systems with special emphasis on battery ageing”. In October 2003 Sauer was appointed for junior-professorship and in 2009 for university professorship at the RWTH Aachen University for “Electrochemical energy conversion and storage systems” (Faculty for Electrical Engineering and Information Technology). His main areas of work pertain to electrochemical energy storage (batteries) and autonomous power supply systems. Schneider, Professor Dr. jur. Jens-Peter, (born 1963) holds a chair in Public Law, European Information and Infrastructure Law at the University of Freiburg; he is also co-director of the Institute of Media and Information Law at the

List of Authors

243

University of Freiburg. Until 2010 he was professor of German and European Administrative Law at the University of Osnabr€ uck and functioning as co-director of the European Legal Studies Institute. From 1993 until 2000 he was Reader in Law at the University of Hamburg and Research Fellow at the Centre for Environmental Law as well as at the Centre for Research in Law and Innovation. Besides he received offers for professorships at the universities of Bielefeld (1999), Erfurt (1999) and Speyer (2009). He studied law (and economics) at the Universities of Marburg and Freiburg (Germany), holds a doctor in law from the University of Freiburg (Germany) (Dr. iur.), worked as a junior lawyer in state and federal ministries as well as in the City attorney´s office of San Francisco and habilitated at the University of Hamburg (Germany). Schreurs, Professor Miranda, Ph.D., became Director of the Environmental Policy Research Center and Professor of Comparative Politics at the Freie Universit€at Berlin in 2007. Prior to this she was an Associate Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Maryland, College Park. Her Ph.D. is from the University of Michigan (1996). In 2008, she was appointed as a member of the Advisory Council on the Environment, a consultative committee of the German Federal government. In 2011, she became chair of the European Environment and Sustainable Development Advisory Councils, a network of approximately 25 advisory councils across Europe. In this year, she was also appointed by Chancellor Angela Merkel to the Ethic Commission on a Safe Energy Supply, charged with advising the German government with advice regarding energy questions in the post-Fukushima era. She was the 2009–2010 Fulbright New Century Scholar Program’s Distinguished Leader and in this capacity co-ordinated the programs activities on the Role of the University as Knowledge Center and Innovation Driver. Ziesemer, Professor Dr. rer. pol. Thomas, has been an Associate Professor of Economics since December 1996. He studied economics at the Universities of Kiel (1974–1975) and Regensburg (1975–1978) in Germany. From 1982 to 1989 he was employed at the University of Regensburg, where he completed his doctoral dissertation on Economic Theory of Underdevelopment in 1985. Since December of 1989, he has been successively an Assistant Professor of International Economics, Associate Professor of Microeconomics (1994–97), Maastricht University, and is currently Associate Professor of Economics all at the School of Business and Economics, Maastricht University. In November 1996 he received his “Habilitation” from the Free University Berlin in 1996. His fields of interest include Development, International and Environmental Economics, Growth, and Technical Change.

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Appendix The Relation Between Emissionand Labour-Saving Technical Change in an Optimal Growth Model with Emission Reduction Constraints

The question treated here is how technical change shifts from being labouraugmenting to energy-saving, when these two types of technical change are both endogenous. This question is relevant when emission reductions are enforced and make energy use more expensive relative to labour. Then, the more expensive use of energy and emissions provide an incentive to invest in energy-saving or emission-reducing technical change, which implies a lower relative incentive to invest in labour-saving technical change. What is unpredictable, without formal modelling, is how the difference between the two rates of technical change will develop.

Optimal Growth In order to tackle this problem, we set up an optimal growth model in which energysaving and labour-augmenting technical change are both endogenous, whereas the use of emissions, E, and labour are growing at exogenous rates. For labour, this is the growth of the labour force, N, multiplied by an exogenous, constant rate of employment, (1u), resulting in (1u)N ¼ L.

The Model We do not consider explicitly a market economy but rather formulate an optimal growth model, where a central planner maximises infinite horizon utility, given an exogenous fall in the rate of emissions, which he uses as a restriction taken from climate models. We specify the rest of the model as simply as possible in order to make the issue tractable.

B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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Appendix: The Relation Between Emission- and Labour-Saving Technical Change

Technologies Output Y is produced using two factors, labour L growing at an exogenous and constant non-negative rate and emissions, E, growing at a negative rate. For both there is a technology level Ai, i ¼ E, L. Y ¼ ½aðAL LÞr þ ð1  aÞðAE EÞr 1=r ;

(1)

The technology levels can be changed by employment of researchers of which the economy has an endowment, H, which can be employed in production functions F and G, where each prime indicates a derivative. The first derivatives are assumed to be positive and the second negative. A_ E ¼ AE FðHE Þ; F0 >0; F00 <0

(2)

A_ L ¼ AL GðHL Þ; G0 >0; G00 <0

(3)

Preferences Households are assumed to have preferences for any moment in time u(c)v(E), discounted at rate d, for all future time periods t from the present t to an infinite horizon. 1 ð

U¼

edðttÞ ½uðcÞ  vðEÞdt; with

t

u¼

1 1s c ; 1s

implying (4)

u0 ¼ cs ; u00 ¼ scs1 ; v0 <0

Endowments Factor endowments are the initial values of labour, L, human capital, H and productivity Ai: AE ð0Þ; AL ð0Þ; Lð0Þ; Hð0Þ:

Appendix: The Relation Between Emission-and Labour-aving Technical Change

247

Constraints The resource constraints can be formulated as follows: H ¼ H L þ HE

(5)

^ E<0; L^  0

(6)

H is assumed to be constant. Otherwise a slight reformulation would be required in order to avoid the scale effects problem (see von Weizs€acker 1969; Jones 1999)

Hamiltonian Applying Pontryagin’s maximum principle we formulate the Hamiltonian as U¼

1 c1s L þ lf½aðAL LÞr þ ð1  aÞðAE EÞr 1=r  cLg þ mAE FðHE Þ þ nAL G 1s  ðH  HE Þ

The first order conditions are c : cs  l ¼ 0

(7)

HE : mAE F0 ðHE Þ þ nAL G0 ðH  HE Þð1Þ ¼ 0

(8)

@U ¼ m_  dm ¼ @AE 1 1  l ½aðAL LÞr þ ð1  aÞðAE EÞr r1 rð1  aÞðAE EÞr1 E  mFðHE Þ r

AE : 

AL : 

(9)

@U ¼ n_  dn @AL 1 1 ¼ l ½aðAL LÞr þ ð1  aÞðAE EÞr r1 raðAL LÞr1 L  nGðH  HE Þ r (10)

Using the production function and the fact that cL equals output, (9) and (10) can be reformulated as m_  dm ¼ l½cL1r ð1  aÞðAE EÞr1 E  mFðHE Þ

(9’)

n_  dn ¼ l½cL1r aðAL LÞr1 L  nGðH  HE Þ

(10’)

248

Appendix: The Relation Between Emission- and Labour-Saving Technical Change

A steady state is defined as a constant allocation of the human capital variables and constant growth rates for each variable. Dividing the last two equations by m and n respectively yields _  d ¼ ðl=mÞ½cL1r ð1  aÞðAE EÞr1 E  FðHE Þ m=m

(9’’)

n_ =n  d ¼ ðl=vÞ½cL1r aðAL LÞr1 L  GðH  HE Þ

(10’’)

In a steady state we would have a constant growth rate of m, n, AL, AE. From the first-order condition for H-terms, (8), it follows that ^ þ A^E ¼ ^n þ A^L m

(8’)

To prepare the use of this, the differential equations for m and n can be rewritten as _ þ FðHE Þ ¼ d  ðl=mÞ½cL1r ð1  aÞðAE EÞr1 E m=m

(9’’’)

n_ =n þ GðH  HE Þ ¼ d  ðl=vÞ½cL1r aðAL LÞr1 L

(10’’’)

Equality of the left-hand sides implies equality of the right-hand side terms and therefore ðl=mÞ½cL1r ð1  aÞðAE EÞr1 E ¼ ðl=vÞ½cL1r aðAL LÞr1 L

(11)

Cancellation of identical terms yields ð1=mÞð1  aÞðAE EÞr1 E ¼ ð1=vÞaðAL LÞr1 L

(11’)

Rewriting (110 ) in terms of growth rates yields  m þ ðr  1ÞA^E þ rE^ ¼ ^n þ ðr  1ÞA^L þ rL^

(11’’)

Using (80 ) allows cancellation to get A^E þ E^ ¼ A^L þ L^ ¼ Y^

(11’’’)

With exogenous growth of E and L it follows that A^E  A^L ¼ L^  E^

ð11iv Þ

The growth rate in efficiency units is equal for E and L according to (11’’’), or the growth rate difference between L and E will be equal to that of their rates of

Appendix: The Relation Between Emission-and Labour-aving Technical Change

249

technical change as in (11iv). If E would have positive growth as the GDP had in the past, given that of L, the left-hand side of (11iv) would be much smaller. A special case that is familiar to the economist from growth theory would be that the first term is zero, the second is 2% and so is the right-hand side: labour-productivity and GDP per capita growth at a rate of 2%. If, however, labour grows as the rate of population in the OECD at 0.6% and E grows at 2% as climate models seem to recommend, than the right-hand side of (11iv) is 2.6% and therefore emissionsaving technical progress will be 2.6% larger than labour augmenting technical change.

.

Further volumes of the series Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment (Wissenschaftsethik und Technikfolgenbeurteilung)

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A. Grunwald (ed) Rationale Technikfolgenbeurteilung. Konzeption und methodische Grundlagen, 1998 A. Grunwald, S. Saupe (eds) Ethik in der Technikgestaltung. Praktische Relevanz und Legitimation, 1999 H. Harig, C. J. Langenbach (eds) Neue Materialien fu¨r innovative Produkte. Entwicklungstrends und gesellschaftliche Relevanz, 1999 J. Grin, A. Grunwald (eds) Vision Assessment. Shaping Technology for 21st Century Society, 1999 C. Streffer et al., Umweltstandards. Kombinierte Expositionen und ihre Auswirkungen auf den Menschen und seine natu¨rliche Umwelt, 2000 K.-M. Nigge, Life Cycle Assessment of Natural Gas Vehicles. Development and Application of Site-Dependent Impact Indicators, 2000 C. R. Bartram et al., Humangenetische Diagnostik. Wissenschaftliche Grundlagen und gesellschaftliche Konsequenzen, 2000 J. P. Beckmann et al., Xenotransplantation von Zellen, Geweben oder Organen. Wissenschaftliche Grundlagen und ethisch-rechtliche Implikationen, 2000 G. Banse, C. J. Langenbach, P. Machleidt (eds) Towards the Information Society. The Case of Central and Eastern European Countries, 2000 P. Janich, M. Gutmann, K. Pries (eds) Biodiversita¨t. Wissenschaftliche Grundlagen und gesellschaftliche Relevanz, 2001 M. Decker (ed) Interdisciplinarity in Technology Assessment. Implementation and its Chances and Limits, 2001 C. J. Langenbach, O. Ulrich (eds) Elektronische Signaturen. Kulturelle Rahmenbedingungen einer technischen Entwicklung, 2002 F. Breyer, H. Kliemt, F. Thiele (eds) Rationing in Medicine. Ethical, Legal and Practical Aspects, 2002 T. Christaller et al., Robotik. Perspektiven fu¨r menschliches Handeln in der zuku¨nftigen Gesellschaft, 2001

B. Droste-Franke et al., Balancing Renewable Electricity, Ethics of Science and Technology Assessment 40, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-25157-3, # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

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Vol. 15: A. Grunwald, M. Gutmann, E. Neumann-Held (eds) On Human Nature. Anthropological, Biological, and Philosophical Foundations, 2002 Vol. 16: M. Schro¨der et al., Klimavorhersage und Klimavorsorge, 2002 Vol. 17: C. F. Gethmann, S. Lingner (eds) Integrative Modellierung zum Globalen Wandel, 2002 Vol. 18: U. Steger et al., Nachhaltige Entwicklung und Innovation im Energiebereich, 2002 Vol. 19: E. Ehlers, C. F. Gethmann (eds) Environmental Across Cultures, 2003 Vol. 20: R. Chadwick et al., Functional Foods, 2003 Vol. 21: D. Solter et al., Embryo Research in Pluralistic Europe, 2003 Vol. 22: M. Decker, M. Ladikas (eds) Bridges between Science, Society and Policy. Technology Assessment – Methods and Impacts, 2004 Vol. 23: C. Streffer et al., Low Dose Exposures in the Environment. Dose-Effect Relations and Risk-Evaluation, 2004 Vol. 24: F. Thiele, R. A. Ashcroft (eds) Bioethics in a Small World, 2004 Vol. 25: H.-R. Duncker, K. Pries (eds) On the Uniqueness of Humankind, 2005 Vol. 26: B. v. Maydell, K. Borchardt, K.-D. Henke, R. Leitner, R. Muffels, M. Quante, P.-L. Rauhala, G. Verschraegen, M. Zˇukowski, Enabling Social Europe, 2006 Vol. 27: G. Schmid, H. Brune, H. Ernst, A. Grunwald, W. Gru¨nwald, H. Hofmann, H. Krug, P. Janich, M. Mayor, W. Rathgeber, U. Simon, V. Vogel, D. Wyrwa, Nanotechnology. Assessment and Perspectives, 2006 Vol. 28: M. Kloepfer, B. Griefahn, A. M. Kaniowski, G. Klepper, S. Lingner, G. Steinebach, H. B. Weyer, P. Wysk, Leben mit La¨rm? Risikobeurteilung und Regulation des Umgebungsla¨rms im Verkehrsbereich, 2006 Vol. 29: R. Merkel, G. Boer, J. Fegert, T. Galert, D. Hartmann, B. Nuttin, S. Rosahl, Intervening in the Brain. Changing Psyche and Society, 2007 Vol. 31: G. Hanekamp (ed) Business Ethics of Innovation, 2007 Vol. 32: U. Steger, U. Bu¨denbender, E. Feess, D. Nelles, Die Regulierung elektrischer Netze. Offene Fragen und Lo¨sungsansatze, 2008 Vol. 33: G. de Haan, G. Kamp, A. Lerch, L. Martignon, G. Mu¨ller-Christ, H. G. Nutzinger, Nachhaltigkeit und Gerechtigkeit. Grundlagen und schulpraktische Konsequenzen, 2008 Vol. 34: M. Engelhard, K. Hagen, M. Boysen (eds) Genetic Engineering in Livestock. New Applications and Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 2008 Vol. 35: M. Engelhard, K. Hagen, R. B. Jørgensen, R. Pardo Avellaneda, E. Rehbinder, A. Schnieke, F. Thiele, Pharming. Promises and risks of biopharmaceuticals derived from genetically modified plants and animals, 2008 Vol. 36: B. Droste-Franke, H. Berg, A. Ko¨tter, J. Kru¨ger, K. Mause, J.-C. Pielow, I. Romey, T. Ziesemer, Brennstoffzellen und Virtuelle Kraftwerke. Energie-, umwelt- und technologiepolitische Aspekte einer effizienten Hausenergieversorgung, 2009

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M. Bo¨lker, M. Gutmann, W. Hesse (eds) Information und Menschenbild, Berlin 2010 Vol. 38: C. Streffer, C. F. Gethmann, G. Kamp, W. Kro¨ger, E. Rehbinder, O. Renn, K.-J. Ro¨hlig, Radioactive Waste. Technical and Normative Aspects of its Disposal, Berlin 2011 Vol. 39: S. Hiekel, Grundbegriffe der gru¨nen Gentechnik. Wissenschaftstheoretische und naturphilosophische Grundlagen, Berlin 2011 Vol. 40: B. Droste-Franke, B. P. Paal, C. Rehtanz, D. U. Sauer, J.-P. Schneider, M. Schreurs, T. Ziesemer, Balancing Renewable Electricity. Energy Storage, Demand Side Management and Network Extension from an Interdisciplinary Perspective, Berlin 2012 Vol. 37:

Also the following studies were published by Springer: Environmental Standards. Combined Exposures and Their Effect on Human Beings and Their Environment, 2003, Translation Vol. 5 Sustainable Development and Innovation in the Energy Sector, 2005, Translation Vol. 18 F. Breyer, W. van den Daele, M. Engelhard, G. Gubernatis, H. Kliemt, C. Kopetzki, H. J. Schlitt, J. Taupitz, Organmangel. Ist der Tod auf der Warteliste unvermeidbar? 2006