Cybernetics and public administration

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ISSN 0368-492X

Volume 35 Number 1/2 2006

Kybernetes The international journal of systems & cybernetics Cybernetics and public administration Guest Editors: Angela Espinosa and Allenna Leonard

Selected as the official journal of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics

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Kybernetes

ISSN 0368-492X

The International Journal of Systems & Cybernetics

Volume 35 Number 1/2 2006

Cybernetics and public administration Guest Editors Angela Espinosa and Allenna Leonard

Access this journal online _________________________

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Editorial advisory board __________________________

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Preface ____________________________________________________

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Introduction _____________________________________

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Transcending organisational autism in the UN system response to HIV/AIDS in Africa John G.I. Clarke________________________________________________

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Paradoxes of optimisation in public service management D. Dewhurst __________________________________________________

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A cybernetic re-evaluation of socio-economic development programs A. Espinosa ___________________________________________________

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Improving national accounts Karl-Gustav Hansson ___________________________________________

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CONTENTS

CONTENTS continued

Identity: the paradoxical nature of organizational closure Luc Hoebeke __________________________________________________

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Momentum and control: a dynamic of democracy Allenna Leonard _______________________________________________

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Governance of economic transitions: a case study of Ukraine Andrey Sergeyev and Alfredo Moscardini ___________________________

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A cybernetic diagnosis of Sri Lanka’s 2002-2003 peace negotiations Leonie Solomons and Alfredo Moscardini ___________________________

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Identity: articulating cybernetics and sociology Paul A. Stokes_________________________________________________

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An ABC of British higher education Rod Thomas __________________________________________________

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Towards productive and sustainable forms of interaction in governance Ralf-Eckhard Tu¨rke ____________________________________________

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A systems approach to analysing sub-state conflicts Steve Wright __________________________________________________

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HIV/AIDS: a threat to the viability of the societies it attacks Marcela Villarreal ______________________________________________

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REGULAR JOURNAL SECTIONS Contemporary systems and cybernetics Innovative applications Brian H. Rudall________________________________________________

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Cybernetics and systems on the web Grids, ten years of WWW Consortium, Maribor Alex M. Andrew _______________________________________________

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Awards for Excellence ____________________________

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Communications and forum _______________________

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News, conferences and technical reports ___________

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Book reviews and reports _________________________

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Announcements __________________________________

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Special announcements ___________________________

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Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 p. 4 # Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X

EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD A. Bensoussan President of INRIA, France V. Chavchanidze Institute of Cybernetics, Tbilisi University, Georgia A.B. Engel IMECC-Unicamp, Universidad Estadual de Campinas, Brazil R.L. Flood Hull University, UK F. Geyer The Netherlands Universities Institute for Co-ordination of Research in Social Sciences, Amsterdam, The Netherlands A. Ghosal Honorary Fellow, World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics, New Delhi, India R. Glanville CybernEthics Research, UK R.W. Grubbstro¨m Linko¨ping University, Sweden Chen Hanfu Institute of Systems Science, Academia Sinica, People’s Republic of China G.J. Klir State University of New York, USA Yi Lin International Institute for General Systems Studies Inc., USA

K.E. McKee IIT Research Institute, Chicago, IL, USA M. Ma˘nescu Academician Professor, Bucharest, Romania M. Mansour Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland K.S. Narendra Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA C.V. Negoita City University of New York, USA W. Pearlman Technion Haifa, Israel A. Raouf Pro-Rector, Ghulam Ishaq Khan (GIK) Institute of Engineering Sciences & Technology, Topi, Pakistan Y. Sawaragi Kyoto University, Japan B. Scott Cranfield University, Royal Military College of Science, Swindon, UK D.J. Stewart Human Factors Research, UK I.A. Ushakov Moscow, Russia J. van der Zouwen Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Preface

Preface Cybernetics and public administration Guest Editors: Angela Espinosa and Allenna Leonard For some time, it has been the aim of the Editorial Advisory Board and the Editorial staff of this Journal to extend its coverage to include many more of the multidisciplinary areas that now attract; a much wider interest, in the cybernetics and systems communities. The opportunity to include one such area came during the UK Cybernetics Society, Annual Conference – CybCon 2004, when the theme was cybernetics and public administration. The interest and enthusiasm shown at this event and the range of papers presented made it imperative that we should consider publishing a special issue on the subject. As a result Dr Angela Espinosa and Dr Allenna Leonard were invited to be its Guest Editors. We are extremely grateful to them for their meticulous compilation of this double issue after extensive discussions with the invited authors. As is our usual practice our regular journal sections are also included. In particular, we have included in our conference reports a review of the conference that inspired this special issue. This Volume 35, with Issues 1-10, will also contain other special issues and features including the publication of selected papers from the 13th World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics Congress held at Maribor, Slovenia (July 2005). In addition, a Festschrift is being prepared to honour a leading sociocybernetician and this will be published as a special double issue in this volume.

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Brian H. Rudall Editor-in-Chief

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Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 6-9 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X

Introduction Cybernetics and public administration: special issue Metaphorum focuses on bringing people together who wish to continue the work of Stafford Beer or who are interested in the organizational and social issues that concerned him in his life and work. The group was first convened by Angela Espinosa, Allenna Leonard, Chris Cullen and Joe Truss, in June of 2003 at the Scarborough Campus of Hull University, UK using a group process invented by Stafford Beer called Team Syntegrity. The opening question was “How to progress Stafford Beer’s Legacy/Gift?” It was sponsored by Hull University Business School, UK. Among the initiatives arising from that meeting was a plan to meet again and share the work that we were doing that related to these interests. A non-governmental organisation co-ordinating development of this idea, emerged from one of the infosets, and the name Metaphorum was suggested. Ian Perry developed the web site of this event, summarising the results and illustrating the process (see: www.metaphorum.org). Metaphorum developed its first “Colloquium on Cybernetics and Government” at the Cybernetics and Systems Thinking Centre of Sunderland University, on 30 April, 1 May 2004, coordinated by Leonie Solomons, Alfredo Moscardini and Angela Espinosa. The second conference happened together with the Cybernetics Society Annual Conference, in London School of Economics, UK, 3 and 4 September 2004. This issue draws together papers from these first two meetings. Alfredo Moscardini, Angela Espinosa, Leonie Solomon and Nick Green coordinated both events. The general topic of these meetings was governance and the papers include an array of theoretical approaches to issues related to governance as well as applications to analyse structural problems of governance and to illustrate application of these ideas in particular situations like development programs, national accounts, political stability and others. The case studies show situations in contrasting nations, like Colombia, Sri Lanka, Swaziland, Ukraine and UK. Some theoretical considerations are offered to understand ideas of societal identity and structure, organisational closure, political structures and media design. Illustrative cases applying Beer’s ideas show a diagnosis of a national economic system, design of a peace process and implementation of socio-economic development programs. Open research paths for the re-design and implementation of multi-national programmes are illustrated through analysis of current AIDS policy and structure of programmes. Also addressed are issues like the possibilities that more systemic and cybernetic approaches will offer for improvement of government control philosophy, accountability systems, education bureaucracies, and even decision-making on defence technology. Moscardini, in his letter to the Editors (Appendix) asks us the question of how we can progress multi-disciplined research projects from and understanding of Nature and social realities, as fractal processes where multiple realities co-exist. We need to shift from guaranteeing the “validity” of models, to agreements about their usefulness to address a social concern. The new research approach should offer sound criteria to choose methodological tools and to critically assess the usefulness of research results or corroborate the value of specific systemic tools to clarify or improve certain types of

real situations. It is clear that we still need more integration of systemic research approaches with more traditional scientific approaches and he invites us all to engage in an open debate on the issue. Leonard looks at the structure and practice of democracy in the west according to cybernetic concepts and finds it vulnerable to distortions, lags, gaps and other manifestations of a lack of requisite variety between valid perspectives of circumstances and the ability to metabolise control on behalf of all relevant stakeholders. She addresses the need for improvement in the design and operation of political systems. Stokes offers a way to use the notions of identity in the viable system model to mesh the understandings of sociology and cybernetics. Since multiple identities have become more central to the way in which societies view themselves, investigation into the way in which they can be understood using organizational cybernetics will be a fruitful avenue of research. Hoebeke explores the nature of System Five in Beer’s Viable System Model from the perspective of a reflective practitioner. He draws upon his experience in multi-stakeholder platforms to explore notions of organizational closure and the implications it has for improving governance at the board level. Sergeyev and Moscardini took a complexity management approach to governance. They apply the viable system model to the problems associated with Ukraine’s transition from a centrally controlled communist economy to a market economy and analysed the structural flaws that resulted in adaptations of barter, corruption and overdue debts. They illustrate how structural problems defined the dynamics of change experienced by the economic system. Dewhurst addresses some of the paradoxes of optimisation that most non-profit organisations – including public sector ones-suffer these days. He argues that the management philosophy of targets as the essence of control and more awareness of its limitations will limit the damage done by its uncritical acceptance. Espinosa reports on a project in socio-economic development in Colombia that employed Beer’s ideas for organisational design and measurement systems, to implement a monitoring system for a presidential programme to fight against poverty, that combined the resources of the university, government and development agencies to provide more effective interventions and more appropriate measures to the effort. A shift in focus from a top down to a bottom up approach that took into account local priorities and concerns was a key element in its success. Villarreal uses cybernetic insights, inspired by the viable system model to propose a more effective approach to the AIDS crisis improving responses from governments and the development community. It is of concern that addressing the many problems created by AIDS in a piecemeal fashion will leave the viability of the affected areas at considerable risk. An approach that blended ameliorating measures in a holistic way would increase the probability of survival of many communities. Clarke uses concepts from cybernetics and systems to re-conceptualise leadership in the United Nations to respond more effectively to the HIV/AIDS crisis and to change their approach from “doing things right” to “doing the right thing”. “Antidotes” from interviews in Swaziland are proposed as a beginning to help the United Nations move away from an “autistic” inward focus to a more externally focused one. Solomons and Moscardini apply cybernetic reasoning to the problems associated with the make-up of three different stages of the peace process in Sri Lanka. Using the

Introduction

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work of Maturana and Beer, they diagnose deficiencies in requisite variety that will plague future peace talks unless they are addressed. In particular, they discuss the need for the nature and requirements of issues and structures to be addressed at the level of interaction government-governed, before the single unity of Sri Lanka can be expected to succeed. Thomas celebrates the centenary of W. Ross Ashby, one of the important early pioneers of cybernetics, and his depiction of the law of requisite variety. He applies it to an analysis of policies of UK higher education, particularly the focus on academic standards and the decisions to increase student numbers and modularise curricula. It shows why the current regime produces a bureaucratized university and why the current policy of expanding UK higher education may be flawed. Turke addresses the preconditions for the design of media interactions that would enable governance using Beer’s Viable System Model and Schwaninger’s Model of Systemic Control to balance images of actors in sociological contexts. Proper modelling of interactions in social systems will better support design principles for media to promote the viability and governance of social systems. Wright gives a sobering view of the way in which technology, in the service of government and private organizations, has developed increasingly sophisticated means to intrude upon our privacy and manipulate situations toward ends that have not been agreed by any legitimate process. Hansson examines the shortcomings of the current information collected for national accounts with respect to model building and other investigative and pattern recognition tools. New methods, enabled by advances in technology, are suggested to make the data gathered for national accounts more illuminating and more fruitful as a source of pattern recognition and learning. Appendix Dear Editors, Many today believe that there needs to be a new paradigm concerning the nature of the world. The closed, deterministic, analytic model of Newton (sometimes known as the scientific method) is being replaced by a view that takes a holistic approach and uses the power of the computer to examine non-linear models that were hitherto insoluble. Nature is also seen as a fractal process. We must consider what this really means in practice when applied to multi-disciplined research projects: . if the world is unknowable then models are as best only possible explanations of what is really happening; . data are subjective and thus is neither strictly or absolutely true; and . in such cases models cannot predict accurately in any numerical sense. The process of generating data from a model to compare with existing data is now problematic. If the model is a non-linear one, then the results of any simulation follow an arbitrary path. Thus the results of the model are not guaranteed to mirror what is actually happening (even if we can agree on what is happening). This seems to invalidate the scientific method in such cases. How does this affect or assessment of modern research? What must be avoided is a situation where shoddy work can be passed. I am suggesting that a rigorous framework should be established and agreed by like-minded academics. As an initial attempt, I suggest the following:

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There should be a detailed defence of the choice of methodology selected. Several should be considered and the final selection should be justified. The examiners can then examine the use made of this methodology in solving the problem. Does the student apply it correctly? Is the logic of his argument correct? Are there mistakes in building the model or simulation? The model can be tested in a base case to observe if it seems to be working in a correct way. The results of the model need to be examined. They can be assessed in the sense that they do or do not advance the current theory. Do they present a coherent and reasonable argument for what is occurring? Do they provide an opportunity for man to understand better? The logic of retroduction is allowed as a complement to induction and deduction. The new results or explanations can be assessed in the light of the old ones and a case for acceptance or rejection can be made.

Such a regime, in my opinion is the basis for a new assessment paradigm. I am a mathematician by training and this is therefore a departure for me. Colleagues in the social sciences have maybe been using similar ones for many years. I look forward to correspondence in this subject and hope that agreement can be reached over the whole academic community. Professor Alfredo Moscardini University of Sunderland, UK

A. Espinosa and A. Leonard Guest Editors

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The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at www.emeraldinsight.com/0368-492X.htm

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Transcending organisational autism in the UN system response to HIV/AIDS in Africa

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John G.I. Clarke Icosindaba Development Associates, Pinegowrie, Johannesburg, South Africa Abstract Purpose – To encourage the ongoing transformation of the UN system by conceptualising leadership challenges within a cybernetics/systems paradigm. Design/methodology/approach – A grounded theory methodology was used to explore the “paradox of plenty” within the UN system in Southern Africa – how the system can more effectively metabolise the considerable latent creative synergic potential within it, to respond to the challenges of HIV/AIDS in Africa. Findings – Statements from UN leaders call for a new paradigm of humanitarian assistance if the challenges of HIV and AIDS are to be met. However, conversations with a wide range of people both within the UN system and closely connected to it suggest a disconnect between what the system does and what the system espouses – a bias toward “doing things right” rather than “doing the right thing”. Drawing on the writings of Berry (eco-spirituality), Beer (VSM), Argyris and Schon (double loop learning), Hock (chaordic organisation) and Ackoff (corporate planning) the sub-optimal organisational performance is interpreted as an “autistic” condition, whereby organisations become “so locked up inside themselves that nothing and no one can get in”. Interactive dialogue with primary health care workers in Swaziland generated five interconnected principles for developing a systemic response to HIV and AIDS. These are proposed as “antidotes” to counteract autistic tendencies within the UN system. Research limitations/implications – The principles are offered for discussion and refinement through further research by cyberneticians and systems thinkers. Originality/value – If internalised by UN leadership the perplexing challenges that HIV/AIDS is posing could be met with renewed confidence and hope. Keywords Cybernetics, Leadership, International organizations, Acquired immune deficiency syndrome Paper type Conceptual paper

HIV/AIDS is a huge problem. Its gender aspects are manifold. It demands novel responses. Right now the academic community, the policy community and the donor community are not thinking these novel thoughts or identifying novel responses. To do this, recognition of the longer-term nature of the problem is essential. “Gender” and “mainstreaming” in any conventional sense will not be enough (Seeley and Barnett, 2004, p. 97).

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 10-24 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640191

Introduction In Southern Africa rampant HIV infection, deepening food insecurity and the erosion of governance capacity (collectively dubbed “the triple threat”), is challenging the United Nations to develop a new response paradigm that more effectively addresses the This paper does not necessarily represent the views of the World Health Organisation or the United Nations Regional Interagency Coordination Support Office, and is the sole responsibility of the author.

chronic systemic vulnerability of millions of people in the region. Not only does the “triple threat” make the targets for most of the eight UN Millennium Development Goals[1] (MDG’s) unattainable for the countries in the region, but also it is causing many of the indicators of progress to, in fact, show reversals (infant and under five mortality rates, life expectancy, nutritional status, etc.). The United Nations system has prioritised internal reform, led by the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan (2002). He states: Increasingly, the world looks to the United Nations to address social problems that assume global importance – above all the eradication of extreme poverty – and to help to articulate a global consensus on how to deal with them. The Organization played this role notably in 2001 by raising the profile of HIV/AIDS as a global issue, through the convening of a special session of the General Assembly and the preparatory and follow-up activities associated with it. There is obviously no room for complacency on this issue, and I will continue to make it one of my personal priorities. However, the ability of the United Nations to make a vital contribution in such areas is, I believe, no longer in question.

This paper takes its cue from his statements, and is informed by the insights of management cybernetics – the applied systems science Beer (1979) defines as “the science of organisational effectiveness”. It probes the contradictions and ambiguities that the UN system in Southern Africa faces in its institutional response to the perceived “triple threat”, offers an interpretation, and proposes five working principles and a collective proposition for UN leaders to consider in their efforts to change the way the UN does its business in the Southern African region. Problem statement Within the UN system the conventional response is geared to intervene with humanitarian relief in a “sudden shock” turn of events where acute conditions cause rising mortality and a situation of abnormality. Through interventions of material relief in the short term, prescriptions of technical improvements in the medium term, and economic structural adjustment in the long term, the implicit assumption is that “normality” will return. New coping strategies are to be developed that reduce the susceptibility of affected populations to whatever hazard happened to have stretched their tolerance limits to give rise to an “emergency”. In crisis situations across the world, the usual response has been for international agencies to bring in emergency relief along with new implementing teams largely as a separate process to long-term development projects that were in place beforehand. Calls for a better integration between these processes have a long history in development literature (Buchanan Smith and Maxwell, 1994 cited in Harvey, c2003), which reflects the recognition that the linear concept of a continuum between relief and development has been inadequate. A simultaneous approach has, therefore, been suggested as a better concept, although with the understanding that there is a powerful argument for a distinctiveness of humanitarian aid (Drimie, c2004).

It is the advent of HIV/AIDS that has most challenged the conventional paradigm because HIV/AIDS is producing a slow-onset, deeply rooted, compound/complex systemic phenomena that can only be managed by recognising the complex systemic nature of the phenomena as it infects the body and spreads through society via the most vulnerable members. Because HIV attacks the younger, sexually active population, upon whom the future development of society depends, and given that

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the prevalence rate among 20-30 years old adults is so high in the region (estimated at 46 per cent in Swaziland) it is no exaggeration to suggest that Southern African societies are in a state of incipient systemic collapse. This makes the parable of the boiled frog an appropriate – albeit disturbing – metaphor to convey both the gravity of the Southern African humanitarian crisis, and the need to characterise it in complex living systems terms. If you place a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will immediately try to scramble out. But if you place the frog in room temperature water, and don’t scare him, he’ll stay put. Now, if the pot sits on a heat source, and if you gradually turn up the temperature, something very interesting happens. As the temperature rises from 70 to 908F, the frog will do nothing. In fact, he will show every sign of enjoying himself. As the temperature gradually increases, the frog will become groggier and groggier, until he is unable to climb out of the pot. Although there is nothing restraining him, the frog will sit there and boil. Why? Because the frog’s internal apparatus for sensing threats to survival is geared to sudden changes in his environment, not to slow, gradual changes (Senge, 1990).

Drimie (c2004) concurs: The advent of AIDS in particular underscores the fact that “business as usual” is no longer applicable, as this “creeping disaster” has steadily eroded the livelihood base of millions of people. Increasingly the challenge should be for the development component of the response to go beyond rehabilitation and to be built centrally into projects. This raises an imperative for agencies to seriously consider their medium and long-term assistance priorities as “silo-oriented” fragmented development support (Drimie, 2004).

This call echoes the challenge that donor agencies and government leaders have issued for the UN to become more than a collection of discrete agencies, preoccupied by narrow interpretations of their various mandates and constrained by a structure that discourages innovation and experimentation. Impatient with the slow pace of UN reform, donors are in many countries now choosing to by-pass the UN in determining aid and development assistance to poorer nations through what is called “direct budgetary assistance”. Recognising this and other challenges facing the UN system, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan (2002) has called for “a very different way of doing business”. In particular, he has called for: Doing what matters’ by prioritising advocacy for human rights and ensuring the UN brings its influence to bear to champion the rights of those most marginalized and exploited, girls and women. “Working together better”, entailing the development of joint programmes, building common databases, and pooling resources, between UN agencies as well as between the UN and NGO’s.

In Southern Africa, serious effort has been made, led by the special envoy for Humanitarian needs in Southern Africa, James Morris, to model a new way of doing business. A body has been formed of UN Regional Directors in Africa to endorse a more joined up approach to addressing the HIV/AIDS crisis. Structures and processes are evolving to intensify action at the country level to restore confidence in the UN system, while it proves it able to counteract the “triple threat” through “doing what matters” and “working together better”. This paper seeks to critically explore what this means in terms of a managerial cybernetics paradigm.

Response and methodology Given my interests and background described below, my recruitment into the UN system provided an opportunity to reflect upon this deep learning question: given the overwhelming threats of HIV/AIDS, food insecurity and weakening governance, how can the UN system in Southern Africa become an extra-extra-ordinary organisation? The enquiry took the form of a participant observation study roughly following the techniques of grounded theory methodology to explore the above question, but in a natural conversational mode rather than structured interviews or focus groups. Given the inter-subjective process of making meaning, it is appropriate my own subjective interest be explained and the process of learning outlined. A yearning phrase from Beer’s book Beyond Dispute: The Invention of Team Syntegrity, was held tacitly in mind as I proceeded in the enquiry/advocacy process. “We need to metabolise the creative and the synergetic resources of the enterprise” (Beer, 1993). This thought was connected to Drucker’s observation that organizations exist to enable ordinary people to achieve extraordinary things (O’Reilly and Pfeffer, 2000), as an incentive to bring to the surface latent energy in the United Nations Southern African humanitarian response system. Employed by the World Health Organisation specifically, I have over the past three years worked in an UN inter-agency coordination and support office as an advocacy and communications officer. Having a background in social work and an interest in promoting organisational development that achieves Drucker’s ideal, especially in organisations with an avowedly human service intent, I discovered the work of Stafford Beer a decade ago. Since then I have sought to penetrate the mysteries of organisational behaviour in complex systems aided by Beer’s (1979, 1989) Viable Systems Model, together with the insights of other systems thinkers and practitioners Ackoff (2003), Checkland (1981), Hoebeke (1994), Hock (1997) and Senge (1990). The professional mandate of social work is to instil hope, and promote an attitude that recognises the self-fulfilling nature of human fears and anxieties. Thus I sought to test out in my conversations the aphorism that says “hope is believing, in spite of the evidence, and then watching the evidence change” (Harrison, 1996), to inspire perseverance. However, as intellectually convinced as I was of the need for managers to shift from mechanistic to systems thinking if they were to achieve the extraordinary performance promised by Drucker, practical experience was needed to produce the changing evidence that hope sought. The testimony of Dee Hock (1997), founder and CEO emeritus of visa, provided tremendous encouragement that there was indeed “changing evidence” to justify hope. His riveting autobiographical account of the remarkable organisational innovation that came to be known as visa was grist to the mill. Visa has indeed changed the face of international banking by modelling a unique “chaordic” organisational form that was able to match and transform the chaos in the banking system that prevailed at the time. However, Hock is under no illusions about the daunting challenge still to be faced, if chaordic, systemically managed, flexible, adaptive, creative, empowering and transforming organisations are to become the norm in twenty-first century human civilisation and society. Many (including Stafford Beer), would consider the United Nations to be the last organisation to shed what Hock (1997) characterises as:

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. . . an anachronistic, 19th Century, Newtonian command and control management orthodoxy that was inimical to the human spirit and destructive of the natural environment.

I suggested in the conversations that, given the extra-ordinary people at its disposal, the UN ought, according to Drucker’s logic be a superlative organisation, and bring the MDG’s within reach despite the triple threat. How could this paradox of plenty be resolved? Mindful of Argyris and Schon’s (1978) work on double loop learning and the tendency toward learned incompetence in large bureaucratic organisations, conversations were held with a wide range of people both within the UN system and closely connected to it, to gain an understanding of how they interpreted the apparent disconnect between the espoused theory and the actual theory in use. However, I was also keenly aware of the danger of promoting a self-fulfilling prophecy of doom, and inspired by Bohm’s (1965) work on dialogue sought to balance enquiry into the underlying dynamics that robbed the UN of its latent potential, with advocacy for an attitude of “hope in spite of the evidence”. It was with this frame of mind that I engaged in the conversations that inform this study. Findings and interpretation While leaders of UN agencies at country, regional and Headquarters – almost without exception – want to see a UN system where “form follows function” the reverse tends to prevail. Having evolved out of the dominant Newtonian organizational management paradigm of the nineteenth century that oversimplified accountability into two precepts – “political command” and “bureaucratic control” – the UN system was generally experienced to be a system that prioritises compliance and order. Respondents saw the need for innovation, but recognised that since innovation implied risk, in situations where lives are at stake, they sympathised with disinclination by UN managers to “rock the boat especially in a choppy sea”, and were disinclined to “thrive on chaos”. At the same time, the vast number of rules and regulations in the UN allow for a certain amount of freedom to pick and choose which ones to follow. I interpret this as typical characteristic of command and control hierarchical structures, which do not ordinarily have the capability to generate sufficient internal variety to absorb the variety and complexity that innovators always generate. Bold leaders at country and regional level dared to create the systemic and structural conditions for a more developmental variety/complexity dynamic to emerge. This had to be done with astute skill in managing their higher-level managers and directors, anxious that exceptions to the established rules might become new rules that more senior managers did not understand, and thus could not administer. It was clear that the levels of anxiety about the risks of change, gave rise to typical “defensive routines” (Argyris and Schon, 1978) where problems (and solutions) were externalised. Leaders at country level would confide that the “agency politics at higher level” were “frustrating rather than facilitating”. At the same time, higher level leaders expressed concern about the reluctance of UN country team members to promote the UN system’s long-term interests over the short term interests of their particular agency; despite the fact that it was clear that the UN reform agenda had to be internalised by the UN country teams. However, it was also acknowledged by almost all respondents that failure to innovate and take risks would render the UN increasingly irrelevant and discredited.

It would be vulnerable to accusations of a “solution in search of a problem”, and of trading strategic effectiveness in the “outside and future” off against operational efficiency in the “here and now” (perhaps not even achieving these criterion of viability very well). Ackoff’s (2003) trenchant warning was offered as a challenge. Explaining the difference between strategic and operational planning, he says:

Transcending organisational autism

It is better to do the right think wrong, than to keep doing the wrong thing right. By doing the wrong thing right we become “wronger”. But by doing the right thing wrong, we become righter! (assuming we embrace our errors in a learning feedback loop).

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This insight was generally welcomed at first, but when the implications began to dawn, there was an understandable reluctance to risk the tolerance of the system for making mistakes. To explain the defensiveness, it was suggested that the implicit managerial paradigm held by most UN leaders was still largely based on a Newtonian reductionist scientific logic, which is very good at defining cause-effect relationships. Consequently, it was “natural” for the UN to be preoccupied in finding how to “do things right” by increasing technical sophistication and the definition of precise algorithms that guarantee a solution. However, I argued that by relying on consultants with various technical specialities, the UN was becoming super-saturated with technical information and knowledge – more than it can possibly absorb, while continuing to define the problems it faces in largely technical/analytic terms. It was suggested that “doing the right thing” requires a different orientation, known as “heuristic search”. An algorithm is a set of rules for solving a problem. If the rules are followed correctly, a solution (if it exists) is guaranteed. Algorithms work by systematically reducing the variety (size or density) of the solution space, and tend to be effective in the solution of relatively simple (low-variety) problems. Heuristic methods, on the other hand, are rules for enlightened search. They do not guarantee a solution, only improvement – if improvement is possible. The optimum path is not known in advance, nor, in fact is the method by which one might find such a path. Heuristic methods, in contrast to algorithmic methods, begin with intelligent expansion of the potential solution space, thereby initially increasing the situational variety that must be handled. . . (Waelchli, 1989).

However, while there was sympathy from some, clearly the message was perceived as too radical. One respondent, a consultant, was honest enough to admit that he dared not ask probing questions that might cause his client to doubt their strategy, as he feared they might terminate his contract, and he desperately needed the income. Even the prospect of a more creative enterprise was not enough to overcome slavish adherence to past institutional algorithms, rules and tried and tested methods of “doing things right”. However, others were more tolerant of the ambiguity, and recognised that to lock oneself inside the organisational orthodoxy meant that new information would not be assimilated and changing demands and environmental/contextual circumstances would ultimately defeat the organisation. This was starkly illustrated when a seminar was held where a recent analysis by the Humanitarian Practice Network of Food Security Interventions in the Great Lakes region of Africa, was presented. The study embarrassed the UN in particular and the humanitarian community in general by showing that: The same stereotyped interventions are been used, largely because these responses are not based on an understanding of the real needs of people, and insufficient attempts have been

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made to find out what those needs might be. Many responses were based on questionable and untested assumptions, were plagued by logical inconsistencies, and provided poor value for money (Levine and Chastre, 2004).

This study, provocatively entitled “Missing the Point” urged humanitarian agencies and the UN to acknowledge the problem and increase their commitment to improving responses to food insecurity. Welcoming the challenge I argued that the authors of the study were themselves perhaps “missing the point” by concluding that “too little analysis of the appropriateness of the standard set of food security responses” and their belief that a “long term analytical perspective is needed”. I argued that this invited still more technical and “managerialist” responses, whereas the situation rather appears to require leadership and strategic thinking. The HPG authors’ proposed remedy has the distinct flavour of “more of the same” Newtonian reductionism rather than an understanding of Albert Einstein’s famous dictum: The significant problems we face can never be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.

Misconnect between normative, strategic and operational domains Given the above exchanges, I now offer a more collected interpretation of the UN’s managerial and leadership challenges. Stafford Beer’s modelling of organisational viability is used to offer a better conception of such. Beer found in Ashby’s (1964) statement “only variety can destroy variety” an insight profound enough to inspire at least seven of his 13 books. Rephrased to soften the militaristic tone, Beer elucidated it as “only variety can absorb variety” while dubbing it “Ashby’s law of requisite variety”. Stafford Beer’s entire corpus of work can be interpreted as a plea for organizational leaders to discover that the viability of an organization at the macro scale derives from the viability of embedded, human-scale organisations within, which have variety requisite to the environment within which they must operate. Viability is a function, therefore, of a dynamic equilibrium between a context and the systems living within that context. This is captured by Beer’s (1979) First Principle of Organisation. Managerial, operational and environmental varieties, diffusing through an institutional system, tend to equate; they should be designed to do so with minimum damage to people and to cost.

To the extent that institutional systems are designed to continuously absorb and equate the residual variety – the variety that is left unattended by processes of self-organisation and self-regulation (Espejo and Harnden, 1989) – so will the composite system facilitate development of both the embedded systems within, and the system as a whole. It is thus a question of optimising the variety equation, to simultaneously achieve autonomy of the parts and cohesion of the whole. Or to use conventional management terminology, to employ both decentralisation and centralisation. Usually cast as dichotomous opposites, Beer argues that, on the evidence of how the “central” nervous system in the human body does not decide each breath that is taken by the respiratory system, or micro manage the digestion of food within the stomach, viable systems are only such because the brain, “follows a policy” – as it were – of simultaneous decentralisation and centralisation, to maintain the survival of its host organism, within the limits and circumstances of

the particular environment within which it lives, moves and has its being. Only if a sudden change in the environment occurs, such as when one falls overboard into water, will the brain overrule the normal breathing response, lest water rather than air be inhaled. In this respect, Beer’s VSM articulates very well the principle of subsidiarity, strongly espoused by the UN Inter Agency Standing Committee for Humanitarian Affairs – a Geneva-based structure for coordinating humanitarian appeals and responses as they occur around the world. The principle of subsidiarity states, “decisions will be taken at the lowest appropriate level”. It implies that “higher” levels of managerial discretion and decision-making are in fact subsidiary to the “lower” ones and should be at their service rather than the reverse. Illustrating the principle, Beer traces the provenance of the Viable Systems Model to his fascination with the paradox that confronted him during his service as an Army psychologist, in 1948. He relates how intrigued he was by the viability of a military unit of 180 men who, despite their individual low level mental functioning, together displayed a surprising viability as a system, able to perform at a much higher level than a calculation of their average IQ would have suggested. At the end of my military service, I spent a year as an army psychologist running an experimental unit of 180 young soldiers (a moving population, 20 of them changing every fortnight). All these men were illiterate, and all had been graded by a psychiatrist as psychopathological personalities. They could not write a letter home, nor read a newspaper, and such sums as 4 þ 3 ¼ ? had them fooled. But they could debate with great energy and verbal facility if not felicity; they could play darts – “21 that’s 15 and a double three to go”; and they could state the winnings on a horse race involving place betting and accumulators with alacrity and accuracy, and apparently without working it out. They had their own conception of discipline, involving terrorism and violence in the barrack room, which met every desideratum of a military unit in its ends, though not in its means. . . .What made these people, unusual as they were, tick – and be motivated and be adaptive and be happy too (for most of them were)? And how did the description of individuals carry over into the description of the whole unit, for it seemed so to do: every one of many visitors to this strange place found it quite extraordinary as an organic whole. It simply was not just a unit housing a population of unusual soldiers. The first regimental sergeant major asked for a posting. This was the empirical start of the subsequent hypothesis that there might be invariances in the behaviour of individuals, whether they be “normal” or not, and that these invariances might inform also the peer group of individuals, and even the total societary unit to which they belong (Beer, 1989).

Beer’s recollection of this unusual group functionality of otherwise dysfunctional individuals is an intriguing instance of an organisation existing to enable “sub-ordinary people” (if one can pardon the pejorative) to achieve ordinary things. It shows up the reductionist fallacy that says that the properties of a whole can be deduced from an analysis of its component parts, by illustrating that the whole can become more than the sum of it parts. I emphasise “can” to acknowledge that the opposite is also true: a whole can also be less functional than an analysis of its parts would predict, which prompted Senge (1990) to provocatively ask:

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. . . how can a team of committed managers with individual IQ’s above 120 have a collective IQ of 83?

Over the three-year period, I experienced both extremes in different working groups and teams in which I participated. Although perturbed by the general preponderance toward a sub-optimal team functioning overall, I reasoned that it would be counterproductive to present this as a judgement. Nor would it have been helpful to focus on the personal virtues or failures of individuals to explain the differences between good and poor team performance, as this would inevitably lead to defensiveness. However, having gained the confidence of many colleagues, from among both the ranks of the leaders and the led, I needed to develop a theory to explain the team pathology and identify strategies for either healing it (if it could be cured) or learning to transcend it in much the same way as a person with a chronic illness learns to transcend their illness by finding new life forces. Argyris and Schon’s (1978) concept of double loop learning was suggested by one colleague as a useful way to promote awareness. It could explain why groups of highly gifted persons are skilled in developing sophisticated defensive routines that constrain team learning to but a single loop of learning (error correction for improved technical operation within governing variables that are assumed to be immutable. This is likely where organizational mandates, goals, values and strategies are taken for granted). High performance teams emerge when, cognizant of a contextual demand for better than the best practice, the organisation embarks upon a second loop of learning whereby governing variables are questioned and team members are willing to “stand a few paces further back” than normal, to surface and examine tacit (invariably conflicting) frames of reference (mental models) and assumptions. The expected dividend from double loop learning is a greatly enriched sense of meaningfulness, enhanced vitality, and strategic relevance. But, since this cannot be guaranteed, we reasoned that perhaps those in charge of the UN system in Southern Africa opted to play safe by doing “business as usual” because they perceived the risks to be more than they could tolerate, or demand of their respective agencies, notwithstanding the consequence that considerable latent creative synergic potential remained dormant and festering, manifesting in cynicism, petty power-plays and subtle sabotage of anything innovative which may “disturb the peace”. Again, Beer’s VSM together with Hoebeke’s (1994) perceptive distinction between four domains of management discretion – the value added domain, the innovation domain, the value systems domain and the spirituality domain – enabled me to diagnose this as a dangerously complacent equilibrium which could only be achieved by mentally disconnecting the operational “added value” domain (system 3) from the strategic “innovation” (system 4) domains, and/or disconnecting the strategic “innovation” domain (system 4) from the normative “value systems” domain (system 5). But to find a term to describe the organizational pathology (other than Stafford Beer’s terms “pathological autopoiesis” or the “decerebrate cat” – guaranteed to immediately activate defensive routines in UN managers if spoken out loud), the term “organisational autism” came to mind. The inspiration came from another intellectual mentor, Thomas Berry, who uses the term in association with spirituality, to describe a much more ominous disconnect that is happening at a much larger scale – the

disconnect between humanity and nature (or in Hoebeke’s terms, the disconnect between the spirituality domain and the other three domains, implicit in embedded recursions within the system). Berry went to a high school one day to talk to the students, wanting to convey to them a sense of our current spiritual predicament. The term autism came to mind, and he asked if anyone in the class could define what that meant, unsure if he would get a good answer. A student jumped up and explained clearly: “People being so locked up in themselves that no one and nothing else can get in”. Exactly, Berry thought. That is what has happened to the human community in our times. We are talking only to ourselves. We are not talking to the rivers, we are not listening to the wind and stars. We have broken the great conversation. By breaking that conversation we have shattered the universe. All the disasters that are happening now are a consequence of that spiritual “autism” (Heffern, c2001).

Thus for similar reasons we could characterize the disconnect between the operational, strategic and normative domains of the UN organisational system as an invitation for the onset of a condition of “organizational autism”. In this condition, where in spite of the existence of considerable latent potential for intelligent, cohesive and synergistic performance, the system operates in fits and starts, jerking uncontrollably, absorbing more energy than it needs, reducing its natural life span, and constantly demanding special care. The parallel between autism and the UN was considered particularly apt, because in every case where sub-optimal team performance was evident, it could be attributed to a lack of or breaking off of inter-agency conversations and retreat behind formal agency mandates, bureaucratic rules and presumed political interests of agency leaders at higher levels. This was associated with attitudes of superiority of ones own agency over others, and the unwarranted assumption of greater cleverness. Again, while perhaps true, it was not considered particularly helpful to leave the diagnosis there. Hoebeke (1994) advises: [Paying attention] to what Beer calls organisational pathologies and their diagnosis is not very helpful for putting effort into their improvements. Asking someone to stop smoking because of his or her health, while he or she is not feeling ill does not often lead to the requisite action, in spite of being a relevant diagnosis. I experienced much more success with the model when I was able to point out why a work system was still viable in spite of apparently major variety imbalances revealed by the VSM.

My thinking was influenced by Vickers’ (1971) famous observation that “the trap is a function of the nature of the trapped” and his notion of “appreciative systems” (as interpreted by Checkland and Hoebeke, 1994). I now attempt to articulate and amplify some principles which suggest themselves as antidotes to autism, because they invite people, perhaps inclined to see themselves as “trapped” within the pathology and perversities of the UN system, to “reframe” their experience, true to the higher reaches of our human nature. Vickers explains: Lobster Pots are designed to catch lobsters. A man entering a man-sized lobster pot would become suspicious of the narrowing tunnel, he would shrink from the drop at the end; and if he fell in, he would recognise the entrance as a possible exit and climb out again – even if he were the shape of the lobster. A trap is a trap only for creatures that cannot solve the problems that it sets. Man traps are dangerous only in relation to the limitations on what men can see and value and do.

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The nature of the trap is a function of the nature of the trapped. To describe either is to imply the other. I start with the trap, because it is more consciously familiar; we the trapped tend to take our state of mind for granted – which is partly why we are trapped. With the shape of the trap in our minds, we shall be better able to see the relevance of our limitations and to question those assumptions about ourselves which are most inept to the activity and experience of being human now.

Swaziland rural health motivators Circumstances conspired to provide an opportunity to formulate such principles in the very real life context of the devastating impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the citizens of the Kingdom of Swaziland. Responding to a call by the Swaziland Minister of Health for exceptional measures to be taken to respond to the increasing burden of care that the approximately 4,000 rural health motivators were facing, as AIDS related morbidity and mortality increased, a project proposal was formulated to enhance the role and function of Swaziland’s rural health motivators in preventing HIV infection, treating AIDS and facilitating community healing. The proposal utilised Hock (1997) framework for formulating a dynamic learning organisation (purpose, principles, concept, structure, people, practice), which offers a circular, spiralling process for the maturation of a “chaordic” organisation. The purpose of the project was as follows: To realise the latent potential of RHM groups to boost “Community Immunity” to HIV/AIDS, by enabling communities at risk to understand and overcome their chronic vulnerability to the pathology of HIV/AIDS by empowering RHM’s to influence their choices and actions toward health and well-being within a dynamically changing cultural context.

The following principles were garnered through a process of discussion and consultation, to try to collectively express the wisdom we sought to inspire the vision and guide the practice. Ubuntu. The African cultural philosophy of life that asserts Umuntu, ngumuntu, ngabantu. Translated as people depend on people to be people. Identity is both “who we are” and “whose we are” – our sense of belonging. While not negating the right of self-determination of the individual, ubuntu frames this within the realisation that the need for identity can only be satisfied through inter-personal relationships that are affirming of a shared sense of humanity and marked by compassion for those suffering most within and on the margins of the community. Where there is life there is hope. The aphorism “hope is believing in spite of the evidence, and then watching the evidence change”, expresses this well. It implies an attitude that looks for the life forces, beneath the pain and suffering, which keep people alive, and seeks to amplify these. It seeks to affirm rather than blame, and encourages a non-judgemental attitude, and openness to talk about things which are sensitive or “taboo” issues. Healing an endogenous developmental process. Recognises that “pain is what the patient says it is, not what the doctor diagnoses it to be”. It regards the health professional role as enabling self-reliance and personal accountability, in accordance with the wisdom that says “problems don’t exist, only people with problems”. Leadership is learning and Learning is leadership. Recognises that leadership can be learned, and that the best leaders are innovators and agents of change, who learn by doing,

embracing error in the quest to “do the right thing” rather than playing safe by only “do things right”. Whole systems perspective. Seeks synergetic relationships that create systems that have emergent properties as a complex whole that don’t exist in the parts if kept in isolation. As such the process seeks to “collect and connect”: Accumulate knowledge through analysis of parts, as well as generate understanding though synthesis and shared reflection on action, to discern unintended consequences and desirable changes/adaptations to achieve the purpose. Thus the contribution of all relevant UN agencies (FAO, UNICEF, UNFPA, UNDP, WFP) beside WHO is sought as is the contribution of various academic and professional disciplines, notably epidemiology, systems thinking (managerial cybernetics), development economics, agricultural science, social work, psychology, nursing, nutrition, etc.

Interpreting the above principles, the program seeks to develop a strategy that creates “safe places” – facilities close to where vulnerable people live, which serve as “open spaces” – protective boundaries within which dialogue and interaction deepens and develops between the rural health motivators and their clients, and a bridge to accessing services offered by other governmental and UN agencies. Having been drafted in consultation with a team from Swaziland, these principles were presented to the UK Cybernetics Society conference in London in August 2004. Participants were invited to validate them from their own experience. No significant dissent was expressed, but one participant questioned the “leadership is learning” principle. He was concerned that this implied leadership was vested in an individual rather than a function to be performed by different persons, each with their particular set of skills and abilities, which in combination offered a richer variety to absorb the variety in a given environment. The easy answer was to point out that in terms of the principle espoused, anyone presuming to be “the leader” whether by conviction, claims of divine right, or inheritance, or superior academic qualifications, etc. needed to be a learner rather than learned. The memorable quote from Hoffer (1976) was recalled. In times of change, those who are ready to learn will inherit the world, while those who believe they know, will be marvellously prepared to deal with a world that has ceased to exist.

Moreover, I argued that the five principles were inter-connected and inter-dependent. To attempt to exercise leadership without practicing ubuntu, or disregarding life forces, or without instilling hope or without striving for a holistic view, would hardly inspire any following. But to adhere to just these four principals was also insufficient. However, I also argued that leadership required individual conviction, commitment and courage. Sociological studies have suggested a perverse group dynamic known as the “tall poppy syndrome” – where an individual gets put down if s/he dares to show exceptional ability, above the prevailing norm. Indeed the principle of ubuntu could in fact encourage this static conformism, if interpreted simplistically and without recognising the implicit identity paradox. The cybernetic explanation of this phenomenon is also implied in Beer’s First Principle of Organisation stated above. The varieties within an institutional system tend to equate as the system seeks equilibrium and ultra stability. Beer adds an imperative “it should be designed to do so with minimum damage to people and to cost”. His identification of the tendency for bureaucracies to drift into pathological autopoeisis – defined by Jackson (2000) as “the self-maintenance or self-production of a system despite a negative balance of its effects on the larger whole” – suggests that creating a viable and dynamic organisation is

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entirely a matter of people who are motivated equally by humanitarian concern as well as desire for economic efficiency, exercising conscious leadership to structure the organisation to minimise and mitigate damage to both. Thus to take account of possible misconceptions and to encourage both reflection and practical action, the following elaboration has been added to the leadership/learning principle. Recognises too that leadership needs to be distributed and shared, rather than concentrated, so as to build resilience throughout the system through a rapid transfer of knowledge and experience, especially given the situation of high mortality and declining life expectancy in Swazi society.

Upon still further reflection it has dawned on me that perhaps of all five principles, leadership is the “gravitational force” (I concede due homage to Newton) that holds all the principles together. This suggests a proposition that I offer as a concluding invitation for further dialogue among cyberneticians and systems thinkers. An organisation’s susceptibility to autism rises and falls in relation to the quality of leadership exercised. Conclusion Whether or not the rural health motivator project receives the required funding to move from concept to practice, it is hoped that the principles and concluding proposition articulated above will indeed serve as antidotes to autism, wherever the condition threatens to manifest itself. The golden thread that I have sought to weave through the discussion is about learning to lead, and learning for leadership. I hope I have managed to do so with due respect for the multiple sensitivities that a deeply contextualised, action research approach will inevitably touch upon. To have resorted to anonymous abstraction rather than practical reflection would have denatured the system. Stafford Beer, while always seeking to define invariances that could be abstractly formulated in positivist scientific logic, was equally concerned that learners understood the self-referential nature of viable systems. “The purpose of the system is what it does”, is one of his most famous observations. The ambiguity and paradox of the statement is an invitation for any person with influence in a system to ask what the system in which they participate, is in fact doing. This should (but often does not) lead to other questions, “what am I doing in the system to contribute to its viability or its vulnerability?” Perhaps, this second question is not asked or answered sufficiently because it becomes tinged with judgement, blame and consequently fear. Defensive routines are activated, and enquiry is shut down, and autism prevails. This study has sought to offer a different way of thinking about the challenges that the UN system faces in its response to HIV/AIDS in Africa, which at its simplest says “the epidemic will continue to control us if we seek to control it with old style management thinking”. Leonard (2000) observes: Some of the new control problems lie more in what is not there than what is. Blind spots, unfortunately, don’t show up as dark patches. Our eyes and our minds fill in the blanks and we do not see that we are not seeing. The missed opportunity, the emerging threat, the unacknowledged stakeholder, and the ham handed response to a crisis are all possibilities that old style control thinking may not register. The new challenge is to anticipate risks from

many directions and prepare to meet them. Understanding the contexts and thinking behind old style control is a valuable precondition to examining existing control assumptions and practices in the light of current needs and values.

The UN system globally has prioritised change and reform of itself. The extent to which the UN system will become a more viable system is inextricably bound up with the extent to which double loop (perhaps even triple loop) learning processes and leadership processes reinforce each other, to metabolise the considerable latent, synergetic potential of the people within to exercise their creativity, generate variety and inspire change in the midst of a very serious human tragedy in Southern Africa. Note 1. Adopted by Member States of the UN in 2000 as part of the Millennium Declaration, as follows: eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; achieve universal primary education; promote gender equality and empower women; reduce child mortality; improve maternal and reproductive health; combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; ensure environmental sustainability; develop a global partnership for development. References Ackoff, R. (2003), Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 31 No. 3, pp. 19-26. Annan, K. (2002), Strengthening the United Nations: An Agenda for Further Change, UN General Assembly, Fifty Seventh Session, New York, NY, September, p. 7. Argyris, C. and Schon, D. (1978), Organisational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Ashby, W.R. (1964), An Introduction to Cybernetics, Methuen Edition, London. Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, Chichester, p. 97. Beer, S. (1989), “The viable systems model”, in Espejo and Harnden, R. (Eds), The Viable Systems Model: Its Provenance, Development, Methodology and Pathology, Wiley, London, pp. 12-13. Beer, S. (1993), Beyond Dispute: The Invention of Team Syntegrity, Wiley, London, p. 159. Berry, T. (2001), quoted in Cover Story, Heffern, Rich Thomas Berry, available at: www. earthdreams (accessed April 2005). Bohm, D. (1965) in Senge, P. (Ed.), Thought, the Hidden Challenge to Humanity, Harper & Row, San Francisco, CA. Checkland, P. (1981), Systems Thinking, Systems Practice, Wiley, London. Espejo, R. and Harnden, R. (1989), “The VSM revisited”, in Espejo, R. and Harnden, R. (Eds), The Viable Systems Model: Interpretation and Application of Stafford Beer’s VSM, Wiley, London. Harrison, L. (1996), “Guiding principles and process of human scale development”, unpublished paper. Hock, D. (1997), “From small seeds organising for learning globally”, videotaped presentation to Society of Organisational Learning, Pegasus Communications. Hoebeke, L. (1994), Making Work Systems Better: A Practitioners Reflections, Wiley, London. Hoffer, E. (1976), The Ordeal of Change, Harper & Row, New York, NY. Jackson, M.C. (2000), A Systems Approach to Management, Wiley, London. Leonard, A. (2000), “Rethinking old practices”, CA Magazine, p. 53.

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Levine, S. and Chastre, C. (2004), “Missing the point. An analysis of food security interventions in the Great Lakes”, Humanitarian Policy Group Network, Overseas Development Institute, London, No. 47, p. 23. O’Reilly, C.A. III and Pfeffer, J. (2000), Hidden Value: How Great Companies Achieve Extraordinary Results with Ordinary People, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA. Seeley, G. and Barnett (2004), “Gender and HIV/AIDS impact mitigation in sub-Saharan Africa – recognising the constraints”, Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS, Vol. 1 No. 2, available at: www.sahara.org.za (accessed March 2005). Senge, P. (1990), The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organisation, Doubleday Books, New York, NY, pp. 9-22. Vickers, G. (1971), Freedom in a Rocking Boa, Penguin Press, Baltimore, MD. Waelchli, F. (1989), “The VSM and Ashby’s law as illuminants of historical management thought”, in Espejo, R. and Harnden, R. (Eds), The Viable Systems Model, Wiley, London. Further reading Argyris, C. (1993), On Organizational Learning, Blackwell, Cambridge, MA. Scott, D. (2004), “The underlying causes of the food crisis in the Southern Africa region – Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe”, Oxfam-Gb Policy Research Paper, HSRC, available at: www.sarpn.co.za (accessed May 2005). World Health Organisation (2002), Epidemiological Update, World Health Organisation, Swaziland. About the author John Clarke is a professional social worker, writer, ethicists and organisational development facilitator, currently employed as Advocacy and Communications Officer in the World Health Organisations Health Action in Crisis unit, but serving a UN Interagency Coordination and Support entity based in Johannesburg, that was formed in 2002 to ensure a consolidated response to humanitarian needs in Southern Africa. He graduated as a Social Worker in 1982, from the University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban and received a Social Science honours degree from the University of Cape Town in 1989 in Religious Studies. He is self taught in management cybernetics, under the inspiration of Stafford Beer, and in the Human Scale Development methodology of Manfred Max-Neef, Chilean “barefoot economist”. He has authored several published papers in the field of organisational and community development.

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Paradoxes of optimisation in public service management

Paradoxes of optimisation

D. Dewhurst Cybernetics Society, Welwyn Garden City, UK

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Abstract Purpose – To examine the paradoxes of optimisation in public service management. Design/methodology/approach – Considers the managerial philosophy of target setting as an organisational control and examines its resulting consequences. Findings – That while the temperate use of the philosophy has its place, awareness of its limitations will control the damage done by its uncritical acceptance. Practical implications – By discussing target setting and its susceptibility to a range of difficulties in the public service management raises awareness of its limitations. Originality/value – Considers an important concern about the use of target setting in the public and private domains. Keywords Cybernetics, Optimization techniques, Public sector organizations Paper type Research paper

The management philosophy of target setting as the essence of organisational control is susceptible to a range of difficulties. While temperate use of this philosophy has its place, awareness of its limitations will limit the damage done by its uncritical acceptance.

There is widespread agreement in the commercial sector that the success of the enterprise can be reduced to a relatively straightforward “bottom line”, such as net profit, return on assets or growth of market share. Certainly these limited objectives are lodged within the culturally negotiated but resilient notion of “money” as a proxy for other people’s willingness to take action and provide assets on our behalf (Ondaatje, 2005), and the bottom line is subject to other varyingly compelling norms such as legality, image, and short term versus medium term profit maximisation. However, evaluation of success is far fuzzier in the public sector and NGOs where the plurality of human desires and benefits is less easily reduced to a single scale or factored out into an unambiguous and balanced set of products and services. The desire of voters, and their politicians to achieve a maximum of benefits for the minimum of costs has led almost inevitably to the management model of targeting and goal setting. The success of physics and chemistry in reducing the components of various previously intractable systems to a handful of simple variables (such as force, distance and time or elementary particles), however, philosophically unsatisfactory, has triggered a search for similar sets of fundamentals in evaluating the effectiveness of non-commercial organisations. Just as Arrow (1951) showed that there is no one perfect electoral system for unambiguously and optimally translating the will of the voters so analogously but more simply this paper shows there is no perfect simplistic management system for delivering human benefits. However, our awareness of this can help us to make less of a hash of it.

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 25-29 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640209

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Despite the lack of a real, clear, easily measurable summative bottom line there are plausibly in such institutions some easily measured correlates of success – treatment waiting time, survival rates, percentage of pupils reaching an exam threshold, attendance levels. There are also some objectives which are less easily measured – overall improvement in health in a fuzzy catchment area, development of more functional personalities, initiative in learning, contribution to future economic achievement. If simplistically we regard the total product of an organisation as the result of combining (multiplying) four outcomes – two measurable m1, m2, and two fuzzy f3, f4, then if the organisation has say 40 units of resource or effort to deploy it should deploy them evenly between m1, m2, f3, f4, to gain a total product of 10 £ 10 £ 10 £ 10 ¼ 10;000 “cost benefits”. If, however, as the result of targeted performance management linked to organisational funding the managers focus resources on what is measurable, giving say m1, and m2, each 19 units of resource and f3, and f4, just one unit each, the total product is reduced to 19 £ 19 £ 1 £ 1 ¼ 361 “cost benefits”. This argument against “target culture” can be countered by the response that desirable outcomes are not independent and that raising the focus on measurable outcomes will raise less measurable ones. Perhaps by picking up every crisp packet she passes on the corridor the head teacher will sustain a respect for the environment which is reflected in positive attitudes to work, more effective learning, exam results and future citizenship. Maybe by ensuring that every arrival at the casualty department starts being treated within two hours fewer conditions will deteriorate and more patients will make a full recovery. However, there are many accounts where this is not the relationship. Would fewer crisp packets get dropped if there was greater focus on quality of teaching? Would a triage system which ignored less obviously debilitating conditions during busy periods actually reduce deaths and increase recoveries by focusing doctors where they could make the greatest impact and prevent the system being hijacked by clients who could get appropriate treatment from less costly providers? Well-known dilemmas which point to a simpler “multiplicative” model of variables are: measuring frequency of publishing (easier) vs long-term citation rates (harder but still manipulable); maximizing throughput by sanctioning more trivial operations vs prioritising those most likely to die soon and so increasing the number of patients with chronic non-life-threatening dissatisfaction; spending on armaments vs spending on infantry or diplomacy; giving extra tuition resources to mid-range 11-year olds so that they score at the “expected” (originally “average”) standard rather than low (or high) attainers whose neglect might later raise other social expenditure (or limit the growth of leading edge developments). The last example also illustrates the issue of having targets, which are both transparent and significant. Schools could easily measure the average attainment with an existing points system which allows pupils’ improvement across the whole range to contribute to the overall measure but because the notion of “percentage passes at level 4 (the “expected”) or above” is easier to communicate it skews the schools’ allocation of their energies. The issue of perception of success warping more fundamental but less accessible evidence of success is demonstrated by the failure of many target driven institutions to

– in Beer’s (1979) words “abort their plans in the light of success, or opportunity.” Related to this is the inertia created by focusing on “targets to be achieved” rather than just taking action. A senior executive faced with an infinity of ways in which to spend his or her time may be tempted when faced with a problem or opportunity which could be dealt with relatively briefly to inflate it into a target on the development plan which can eventually raise the proportion of “fully achieved” objectives presented to an overseeing committee, performance manager or be listed in an annual report. This is linked to the downside of efforts to eliminate poor practice by demanding “paper trails” which, due to the time involved, notoriously reduce the number of cases, items or situations which the executive is able to deal with. A further effect of most target setting is to amplify the intrinsic tendency towards “policy oscillation” which is built partly on a failure to damp response to feedback. Beyond a certain level executives are not promoted for sustaining what is working well, and therefore looks mundane, however, much of an achievement say; clean hospitals, good behaviour or an accurate electoral role may be. Career profiles are built on addressing “challenges” and creating “initiatives” the measurable achievement of which will be a function of how far resources or efforts are withdrawn from items on the traditional and often implicit agenda, which may then come to emerge as problematic. By then of course the successful achievement of previous “challenges” and “initiatives” may then become regarded as mundane so that the organisation can go on to addressing the newly emerging (created) challenges of a developing social order. Popularly the duration of a major local authority initiative is regarded as being the average time in post of officers just below chief executive level. It appears to work roughly for cabinet ministers. Hence there is an inherent danger of creating systems which are spuriously self-validating on improvement criteria but which see-saw or go round in circles in the long term. This may be ameliorated by fudging data at the bottom of the system (among other places) so that practice continues relatively undisturbed by beliefs higher up. Since qualifying as a schools inspector in 1993 I have seen big changes in the institutional paper work and substantial changes in teachers’ performance in observed lessons. The changes in lesson style seen in between inspections when operating as a support or supply teacher or informally as a temporary head are far smaller. The policy oscillator is abetted by the fact that the downside of current policy is relatively visible while the downside of potential initiatives remains arguable at least until they are implemented. This partly explains the oscillation between centralisation and decentralisation which like economic cycles may be linked to individual and institutional memory span. One response to these issues is that the formulation of goals must be a whole institution process, which is shared relatively democratically between all stakeholders. There is much to recommend this rather time consuming process although there is little to prevent it being used as a spurious ritual of legitimisation by those with greater seniority and discretion over how they use their time. While over-response to the feedback selected can reduce effectiveness, restricting the feedback to the form immediately desired by management can limit strains on the formal evaluation – but at the risk of longer-term breakdown.

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The more intelligence, ability and information flows are focused at the top of an organisation the greater the justification for a high degree of top-down target setting. It will also be the practice of those at the top the more encompassing their belief that they are cleverer and know everything significant. De facto a top manager will usually have individuals or departments who competently perform skills which the top manager lacks and to whom the top manager is willing to give relatively free rein while focusing on what (or who) is obviously problematic. In this situation the official process of target setting and evaluation is very much cued by the competent subordinate and not uncommonly the two layers collaborate to produce a set of plausible criteria which will provoke inaction at the level of governing committee, inspection or audit. Thus to a degree policies and targets are valuable in promoting good practice, minimising error and incompetence and reducing the legal vulnerability of senior staff but their proliferation and over-emphasis leads to paper compliance and a cynicism, which leads to an abdication of intelligence and responsibility in favour of proceduralism. Potentially inspection and audit systems can mitigate this danger. However, frequently they provoke the very behaviour they should discourage. Further related to the philosophy which allocates plaudits and resources in terms of new achievements is the need of the monitoring system to identify a continuing stream of failure in order to justify its existence. A police or health service, which cut crime or illness by an order of magnitude, would threaten its own size, influence and possibly existence. Hence the issue of optimising public service provision relates to the set of problems of optimising information flow, which Von Hayek (1988) addressed. Von Hayek plausibly proved that a centrally planned system could not co-ordinate an efficient allocation of resources into productive enterprises as effectively as a free market. The objection remains that a free market may be either a fictional, or at least evolutionarily a self-destabilising, environment. Given the distributed nature of intelligence and information in both the public and the private sector it is paradoxical that the model of a virtually omniscient super-planner is implicitly accepted in the one and rejected in the other. While aspects of network and complexity theory provide substantial scope to articulate these issues we may hope for some interim progress by three strategies: one, loose analogies with the information management of biological organisms. Each cell shares certain “information” or response tendencies in it its DNA code even though relatively little is ever expressed. Arguably the human analogy is education, training and values with an ongoing repair mechanism. Secondly openly acknowledging rather than underplaying the dilemmas referred to in this paper will tend to reduce their most negative impact. Thirdly although moves towards informational openness will provoke some alternative strategies to concealment they will be resorted to less vigorously in an environment where sanctions for imperfect attainment of targets are less severe and inevitable than sanctions for concealing the fact that predetermined targets are not fully in harmony with current reality. References Arrow, K. (1951), Social Choice and Individual Values, Wiley, New York, NY (2nd ed. 1963). Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of Enterprise: The Managerial Cybernetics of Organisation, Wiley, New York, NY.

Ondaatje, C. (2005), “Review of Wall Street: a cultural history”, Times Higher Educational Supplement, No. 1686, p. 23. Von Hayek, F.A. (1988), The Fatal Conceit: the Errors of Socialism, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL. About the author D. Dewhurst took an MSc and PhD in Cybernetics at Brunel University where he led the Students Union. For the past 15 years he has mainly moved between school inspection, teaching, advisory teaching, headship and wider consultancy. He is currently Secretary of the Cybernetic Society.

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A. Espinosa Hull University Business School, Scarborough Management Centre, Scarborough, UK Abstract Purpose – To explore the usefulness of the cybernetic approach to support development programs by offering a theoretical framework that helps us to re-understand development and measuring systems. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a summary of Beer’s theory for organisational development and measuring systems, shows examples of application in design and implementation of socio-economic development programs in Colombia, and uses them to explore the usefulness of the approach in this field. Findings – Analysis of the reported examples shows a clear indication of the usefulness of Beer’s approach to design and measure development programs. It reveals an important field for applied research that could benefit from further applications of the approach. Research limitations/implications – The experiences analysed here showed the strength or alliances between government, universities and development agencies, for applied research. It makes clear that more long-term oriented projects are required to fully implement innovative approaches like the one described. Practical implications – Applying a cybernetic approach in this field implies changing from top-down to bottom-up design; wider involvement of stakeholders to agree on critical measurements; changes from emphasis in technological and managerial improvements, to improvements in learning and self-control tools for the developing communities. Originality/value – Even if there has been agreement on the convenience of experimenting with more holistic approaches to socio-economic development, few researchers show the potential of the cybernetic approach, as this paper does. Keywords Cybernetics, Organizational development, Sociocybernetics, Economic development, Measurement Paper type Research paper

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 30-44 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640218

A fresh look at development programs is crucial due to their low impact in reducing third world poverty. Even if there is wide agreement on the need to shift paradigms from the current economic view of development to a more humanistic and systemic approach, few researchers show the potential of the cybernetic approach, as this paper does. It explores the usefulness of Beer’s cybernetic ideas for re-thinking societal development, development interventions and measuring systems as an alternative paradigm. It presents a summary of Beer’s theory for organisational development and measurement systems and shows examples of application in design and implementation of socio-economic development programs in Colombia. Analysis of the reported examples shows a clear indication of the usefulness of this approach to design and measure development programs. Applying a cybernetic approach implies changing from top-down to bottom-up design; wider involvement of stakeholders;

and a shift in emphasis from short-term efficient investment of resources to development of long-term potentials for the developing communities. The analysis makes it clearer that more long-term oriented development projects are required to fully implement innovative approaches like the one described. Development programs: what is going wrong? The plight of third world coffee growers is well known. Massive over-production has led to plummeting prices and most growers now sell at below production costs. Farmers now cannot feed their families or afford basic healthcare and education. In South America people abandon the coffee crop and turn to illicit crops like cocaine. What is less well known is that the coffee crisis is the result of a very successful development program in Vietnam by the World Bank to develop their coffee plantations. The effect has been to lower prices of Arabic coffee from US $2.50 cents/lb in 1997 to a low of 45 cents/lb in October 2001; meanwhile Nestle´ posted record profits due to “favourable commodity prices” (Co-op, 2003). Seabrook presents examples in countries from India to South America in which the impact of development programs for local communities has been extremely damaging, even if the programs produced the intended growth in economic wealth, often measured in increased exports. Among many other examples, he shows how the construction of a massive dam in India lead to displaced villagers, increases in production of sugar cane (which absorbs more water than any other crop); increased wealth for the already industrialised population who benefit from an increased supply of water and electricity; and increased benefits to the west from the increased production of sugar cane. He presents strong arguments about the need to shift the idea of development from the traditional economic idea to a more sustainable approach, based on the well being of local communities. He suggests that what is in crisis now are those forms of wealth creation themselves; including the definition of wealth, the instruments by which it is measured and judged and its ownership and distribution (Seabrook, 1993, pp. 1-22). The list of similar examples of poor results from development programs is endless. The more radical left-wing commentators conclude that development programs have little to do with helping the poor, but are mainly designed to increase the production of commodities needed by the west, even if this means increased poverty in the third world. However one assesses the situation, it is clear that many development programs are not achieving their stated goals of helping the poorest people on the planet, and that a profound re-think is required. Most traditional socio-economic development approaches accepted economic growth itself as the main societal goal. But what do we understand by societal development and how do we measure it? A recent World Bank report concluded that while GDP of most third world countries increased, the standard of living of the poorest fell 40 per cent (Lundberg and Squirre, 1999). As Dube put it “it is time that we start thinking in terms of Gross National Welfare (GNW) and social development instead of GNP and economic growth”. This new objective will call for redefinition of social goals in terms of improved quality of life and coherent modification of intervention programs and measuring systems (Dube, 1990, p. 49). Some development agencies have begun to recognise the need to shift their paradigms to a more humanistic and systemic approach. One example comes from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in a recent review of its own

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performance in development programs and measuring systems. They consider that two necessary elements for effective development in developing countries are firstly, the sustainability of the intervention and secondly, community capacity building. Both ideas are strongly supported by systemic approaches. They mention that many UN organizations have adopted “Results-Based” management approaches to improve the effectiveness in the delivery of programs, but experience has shown that a mechanistic application of this approach cannot be expected to improve or measure development effectiveness unless other elements and methodologies are in place (UNDP, 2005). Reports and examples such as this highlight the main issues we propose to discuss: (1) The need to re-think the fundamental meaning of development. From the systems point of view any development program designed to help a particular community must develop an understanding based on that community as the system-in-focus. The structure, values and needs of that community must be the basis for the intervention, rather than a paternalistic intervention based on the assumptions that increased wealth – such as better roads and houses – is the answer. Rather than concentrate on western values such as economic growth, development programs need to consider issues such as individual human well-being and community sustainability. (2) The need to re-think the intervention paradigm. The examples given above show repeatedly that development programs imposed by an outside agency can be counter-productive. This introduces the question of requisite variety: an outside agency can never have enough variety in isolation to undertake such an intervention. The systemic answer is to involve the community itself in the process, and to support self-regulation. The variety of a community in co-operation with the resource providers has a far higher chance of success. Self-regulated societal development has to be at the heart of any effective solution. There is some consensus concerning the new paradigm. It should focus on improving social welfare, facilitate deep structural changes, include sustainability as the basis for development and acknowledge global interdependence. It should operate in a participative structure that elicits people’s views. It should constitute their development goals and their skills to implement the programs and operate in self-reliant development schemes (Dube, 1990, pp. 62-82). (3) The need to re-think measurement systems. The ubiquitous use of economic measurements of success in development programs needs to change. Most socio-economic development programs concentrate on measuring specific outputs, normally pre-determined by the providers of the resources, according to their own understanding of local development goals. As Henderson (2002a, b) argued: . . . more than ever, new multi-disciplinary metrics to measure quality of life must supplement current GNP/GDP systems of national accounts, which must be corrected to account for social and human capital and ecological assets and unpaid work . . . Steering national policies via the GNP-growth formula has proved disastrous, socially and environmentally, allowing enormous backlogs of social and environmental costs to be swept under the accounting ‘rug’.

What is still missing in systemic approaches to development? Max-Neef’s theory of human scale development offers a more holistic understanding of societal development, and has been widely used as an alternative to more traditional economic oriented approaches. It considers that individuals from all cultures share nine fundamental universal needs – subsistence, protection, affection, creation, participation, idleness, identity, understanding and freedom – and what changes from one culture to the next is the way individuals meet their needs by choosing their own “satisfiers” (Max-Neef, 1991). His work has inspired new ways of measuring welfare that have been put into practice in the last decade in some development programs, many coming from the UNDP (2004). Despite the importance of this contribution to re-thinking the idea of development and the intervention paradigm, this approach still does not address the structural conditions required for implementation, or offer a coherent system of measurement. Other researchers like Potocan and Mulej support the idea that we require a requisitely holistic approach to sustainable development. They show how to support a more requisitely holistic understanding of sustainable development from business viewpoints. They conclude that even if the UN started promoting sustainable development, none of their education or mainstream theory teaches them to be as holistic as systems theory requires. They highlight the need for proper methodological support and offer some ideas that might help businesses, but do not offer solutions for integrating them with governments (Potocan and Mulej, 2003). Luckett et al. (2001) describe their experience in designing and implementing a development program using a combination of systemic approaches (soft systems methodology and the VSM) and conclude that these approaches show more promise for participatory systemic intervention in development programs. However, they do not make precise methodological recommendations to combine these approaches for guiding development programs. Henderson (2002a) has fully developed and used a systemic approach for quality of life indicators that offers a good example on how to more systemically re-think measurement systems for development programs. However, there is not enough recognition in her work of the structural aspects implied in measuring systems. A cybernetic insight will highlight that the metrics employed determine the workings of the control and feedback loops and thus the performance of the system. Improving performance does not only depend on good measurement but in proper decision-making and communication mechanisms for negotiation on goals and achievements. Even if these and many other researchers show progress towards more systemic paradigms, methodologies and measurement systems for development programs, none of them integrates the theoretical, methodological and instrumental aspects in a coherent and complete way. This paper argues that Organisational Cybernetics, as developed by Stafford Beer, offers a new, complete holistic paradigm for re-thinking development (the viable system model in this case applied to societal development), changing the intervention paradigm and re-designing the measurement systems we use. It supports previous research such as the early work by Floyd (1984) that showed how a cybernetic perspective to planning and policy making based on ideas of requisite variety will see government as the facilitator of radical change, which emerges at the local level.

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More recently Stokes suggested that a state-society at the very least should be a viable system; that is a network of nodes that coordinates itself in a purposive way or is co-ordinated in a purposive way. He considers the VSM as the only existing formal model of a system able to improve the formal constitutional structure of public accountability to secure effective public accountability of government in modern societies (Stokes, 2004). The VSM can help us to change the language of development into a language of viability and offers criteria to re-design development interventions in a more democratic context, by fostering autonomy of local societies. Beer also offers the methodology and tools for developing a coherent system of measurement that supports self-regulation in viable systems. This argument will be clarified by reviewing this language and measurement system. We will see, using some examples of real life applications, how it helps to change the orientation of more traditional designs for development programs and related systems of measurement. The examples will also illustrate what is still missing in the application and development of these ideas in the field of development programs. The viable system model – a brief overview on main distinctions The viable system model is a theoretical framework for understanding organisations from a more democratic view than traditional hierarchical approaches. It is a recursive model – a viable system always contains and is contained within other viable systems. Each subsystem – called system 1 – operates with maximised local autonomy, still limited by the requirement of acting cohesively within the ethos, purposes and constrained resources of the next level organisation it belongs to. At each level, system 1 develops links with the environment and the organisations it interacts with. Supporting system 1 are systems 2-5, at each level of organisation: system 2 is responsible for avoiding oscillation between systems 1 (developing shared languages, protocols, procedures, information systems and so on); system 3 supports regulatory issues and optimises the interactions of systems 1; system 4 is responsible for knowing about the external/internal environments, and alerting the organisation to changes related to the organisational viability; and system 5 is in charge of defining the organisational identity, ethos and purpose and agreeing on the main action lines and resource distribution. Walker (1991) presents a comprehensive description of the model and several examples of application following the language and ideas originally explained by Beer (1979, 1981). The VSM provides a complete theoretical and methodological basis for organisational intervention and for designing management support systems. Espejo developed the original ideas, with emphasis in the learning processes involved in each systemic function of the VSM. He explains that there is a learning loop between an organisational system, and the wide variety of agents in their environment, in which they collectively clarify their expectations, create meanings and act accordingly. It responds to self referential questions (Who are we? What do we need to do? Where do we want to be in the future?). It is through interactions with the environmental agents that the evolving meanings and models of the organisation emerge and this is at the core of organisation’s performance (Espejo, 2002). Measuring performance is, therefore, closely related with the viability of organisations: as any organisation is coupled to different environments, each one having its own metrics to distinguish the viability of their coupling. Measuring

performance requires finding ways of aligning different metrics and languages for measuring variety. Self-regulation is a necessary condition for survival and adaptation. Survival results from effective performance in the interactions with the different environments an organisation interacts with. It requires effective structures able to handle the variety of the interactions and must be able to agree and observe measures of the main self-referential questions. Organisational consciousness emerges when individuals learn to act collectively and purposefully and is more likely to develop when they can close feedback loops while learning through self-referential questions. Closing feedback loops is easier when the issues concerning them are immediate and local, but viable organisations also need to close those loops that are related to the more distant environments or organisations they are embedded in. In both cases, organisations need both agreements on critical factors and effective conversational structures to handle the complexity of negotiations to self regulate on the basis of mistakes and achievements observed through time. This is particularly relevant for understanding viabilities of societies. Societies as viable systems Using the VSM language, a viable society regulates itself and adapts to its environment – even in turbulent times. According to Stokes, the key to the VSM is the central idea of interpolable control: all subsystems in a viable system, by exhibiting their variety to each other, control each other. Autopoietic control is about maintaining a complex system in homeostatic equilibrium, producing itself in the act of routinely doing whatever it does that constitutes its identity (Stokes, 2004, pp. 3, 44). It offers an alternative way to think about societal development, more as “long term survival” than as “non-stop growth”. Survival means being able to cope with the environmental pressures and changes, and to maintain internal stability by routinely doing whatever is seen as the societal identity. Long-term survival happens as a result of effective interactions at all the levels of organisation we belong to (i.e. the eco-region, the nation, other countries, the planet) that do not diminish the possibilities of welfare for next generations (Espinosa and Walker, 2006). To understand the state-society as a viable system, their needs to be agreement on what it understands are the critical issues for its long-term survival (i.e. its own stable conditions) and what it is going to do to keep these factors regulated. Then it requires agreements on how to measure them over time and regulatory and monitoring systems to observe the evolution of these factors. A society developing this kind of awareness, and acting accordingly in its main public decisions, is able to manage the complexity of the situations it experiences, and is better prepared to face and deal with the unexpected. Reaching these agreements involves complex group decision-making processes. In traditional hierarchical societies they are normally reached only with the views of the current power structures represented. In a more democratic society, decisions on the main sustainability factors should be guided by most people’s views. Beer made clear that the freedom an organisation has to agree on its own criteria of stability has some limitations, related to the social contracts it has with the organisations it embodies and is embodied in. He explained the cybernetic mechanisms whereby our institutions fail to translate the will of the people into effective policies and offered the theory of viable systems as a new way to help individuals, groups, institutions, societies and nations to

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realize their potentials (Beer, 1983, pp. 797-810). When deciding on development options, for instance, the value system (i.e. the approach to development) acts as a variety reducer, by limiting valid opportunities for action to those historically agreed upon and socially accepted. The language of complexity management gives us criteria to develop more democratic structures, supported by proper complexity management tools. Power relationships happen at the structural level and VSM criteria help to design self-regulating structures, with balanced roles and democratic decision-making mechanisms allowing more voices to be taken into account when making relevant decisions. It is easier to recognise and to monitor the main factors concerning societal sustainability when there is local autonomy and people can decide on the critical issues for developing sustainable relationships with the biosphere and other societal levels. As we have said before: . . . once these [critical factors] have been recognised, the constituents of the viable system need to understand them thoroughly, learn about them, and act on them rapidly enough by developing adaptive behaviours at the relevant level of granularity (Espinosa et al., 2005).

The structure on which relevant actors are operating (i.e. negotiating or developing tasks) highly determines their possibilities for learning and acting. Factors measuring sustainability in the long term will not be considered seriously unless there are societal agreements on the need to observe and measure them in addition to other medium or short term factors. The way we understand development will change our choice of critical factors to control and monitor. Beer’s approach may support this purpose and encourage more democratic structures with appropriate people’s participation in public decisions. Using it together with the methods and tools he suggested – that we explain more in following sections – one sees that there are better possibilities. In this way, societies may be more aware of their own critical survival variables both in the short and the long term and learn to act quickly enough to correct incipient instability. Beer’s approach to measurement systems Stafford Beer was always concerned with the development of consciousness at all levels: the individual, the social group, the organisation, the nation, and the world. At each level, there is a need to measure the way we summarise our perception of the worlds in which we live. The VSM states that each organisational level should be self-regulated. This means being able to monitor its own survival variables and act in a timely manner to prevent risks to its viability. He suggested that management of complex systems would not improve unless managers give up the dysfunctional concept of causality: their measuring systems need to change from looking for unique causes to looking for instabilities in the system. Clearly most traditional measuring systems will observe and regulate the results of certain actions or programs. They will attempt to discover causal links between observed phenomena and planned goals or objectives. Instead, Beer proposed a meta-systemic measurement system, suited for a managerial meta-system. Cyberfilter is the measurement system offered to managers for this purpose. It is based on the ideas of dramatically reducing the variety of the reports to managers, by offering them only online statistical information on the incipient instability of critical measurements, replacing routine reports offering

unnecessary details. Cyberfilter works in real-time and produces immediate alerting signals replacing historical reports with their inevitable time lags (Beer, 1981, Part 4). Beer’s system measures the actuality, capability and potentiality of critical indices concerned with organisational self-regulation. Actuality is the current value of an index. Capability is the best value achieved in a period of time and potentiality the expected value if more resources are made available. Productivity is the ratio between actuality and capability; latency, the ratio between capability and potentiality; and performance, the ratio between actuality and potentiality. Incipient stability can be observed by predicting future behaviour on the basis of the historical behaviour of these ratios (Beer, 1979, Ch. 11). In a viable system, the meta-systemic function (system 5) will be able to handle the residual variety left by the interaction of systems 3 and 4, if properly supported by such a measurement system. In order to support effective management, the measurement system must be linked to the information generated by operational and strategic management processes. Cyber-Syn is a management model that uses the VSM to design the organisational structure and uses Cyberfilter to support strategic information management. Beer (1981, Part 4) developed it initially to support the Chilean Government in 1972 and reported fully its principles, methodology and application. Espejo et al. (1996, Ch. 8) have also summarised this model. Schuhmann reported the use of such a model in a private multinational. He concluded that it forced them to undertake the difficult process of innovative construction of potential options and their efficient utilisation, even though short-term profits were sacrificed in favour of more long-term strategic results; in addition social responsibilities were balanced with economic interests (Espejo and Schwaninger, 1993, Ch. 10). Schwaninger has described the required methodological tools to design and implement complex development programs following this cybernetic approach, known as the St Gallen’s management framework (Espejo et al., 1996, Ch. 8-10). He supports the idea that by following his approach for development programs, we will have better options to improve and measure sustainability and offers methodological guidance to use it for that purpose (Schwaninger and Kroener, 2000). In the context of development programs, we can use the VSM to improve the viability of the state-society by developing more democratic mechanisms for managing complexity and improving self-regulation and adaptation. The Cyber-Syn model of management offers the methodological guidance to re-design management and information management. Under this paradigm, measuring societal performance in what is agreed are the main sustainability factors will involve measuring how a particular society manages to change its own effectiveness over the medium and long term, by improving its latency for performing effectively according to these critical factors. It will result in developing better skills for using investment resources and for realizing social and economic potentials in a more sustainable way. There has even been a suggestion elsewhere that combining Beer and Max-Neef’s ideas on eudemony and social welfare could offer a path for improving the design and implementation of socio-economic programs (Clarke, 2004). The next sections describe some examples of designing and implementing development programs in Colombia using systemic ideas and Beer’s approach. It will highlight important differences in practice between this approach and more traditional approaches to both the design of development programs and the implementation of systems for measuring development.

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Design of an educational development program The paradigm embraced by most multilateral agencies in Latin America, and in particular in Colombia, resulted in the design of programs that contributed to what was considered the main vehicles for educational development. Major investments were made on improvements to school curricula and the effectiveness of educational institutions in delivering educational services. Measuring these improvements using the best technology was also a focus of major investments. During a program to re-design of the Colombian Education System in 1999-2001, using a systemic and cybernetic approach, it was recognised that most of the commonly used strategies assume that what is required is to improve the efficiency of schools and educational institutions. In contrast, the systemic intervention favoured a more sustainable approach, which meant developing not only the efficiency of the organisations but also their potentiality (Espinosa and Jackson, 2002). Under this criteria, a systemic design of the educational re-development program emphasised achieving the educational mission of the country by encouraging actor participation in setting educational priorities and policies; development of more autonomous individuals and institutions with a strengthened capacity for learning and action; and increased cohesion of the educational system by ensuring citizenship and performance in pursuit of locally agreed goals. The emphasis was on improving interaction and networking between communities and institutions interested in educational development at all levels in the system. Significant investment was directed at participation incentives and learning and technological supporting systems in contrast to more traditional approaches which favour investment in managerial and technological development of educational authorities and schools. In this experience, the methodology used provided diagnostic tools for the schools and educational authorities involved for self-diagnosing their structural problems, achieving more autonomy and developing their learning potentials. As a result of the exercise, they would propose their educational transformation plans and focus their goals at both the educational and managerial levels. Traditional approaches to educational development follow pre-determined educational development strategies for the region agreed at the sponsoring bank, and measure the effectiveness of the state-society in using the investment resources according to pre-agreed development goals. This focuses on measuring things like the number of software programs running in the educational institutions (technological development) and improvement of accountability and managerial tools (managerial development), as well as basic educational development indicators (proficiency in reading, mathematics, etc). The systemic approach to development focuses investments and measurements on developing more autonomous schools operating in a more cohesive and participatory structure. Finding specific ways to observe and measure educational development from this approach will demand measuring factors such as community involvement in educational development, or development of individual and group learning potentials. In the traditional approach we can measure the short-term effect of the resources invested (i.e. increase in average number of computers available per alumni and per staff in an educational institution) and for each objective, we will focus on finding out if we made the right use of the resources employed in the expected times to achieve the expected results. But we will not always observe if the system has improved its latency

– that is, new potentials developed by students, teachers and schools at different levels of learning, innovation in curriculum, organisation, networks and supportive environment. If we do not consider the latency index, institutions may end up managing resources very efficiently for the wrong purposes. They may fulfil some specific short-term project results but they may not yet be fulfilling the most critical long-term educational needs. Critical factors required for the long term educational development goals, like improved individual and social welfare may not be observed or measured. In the long term, the sustainability of this kind of educational system may still be at risk. This example describes the way that a different approach to educational development refocused the design of a development program. The main change was in the involvement of people from all levels in the process of building up educational development goals and projects and the development of participatory structures for educational management. A bottom-up approach was put in place to support local educational agents to develop their own learning and teaching potentials and to design their educational projects, still respecting general guidelines and restricted resources from the upper organisational levels. This way of designing “educational transformation plans” – as we called them – required a new system of measurement of results. Each school and educational agency will monitor those variables they agreed as critical for their sustainable educational development and will invest their resources in making sure to create the proper learning and structural context at each level. Long term projects like developing a learning community creatively contributing to develop school potentials or adjusting curriculum to local knowledge and needs will have related educational development projects and monitoring variables to measure progress in these non traditional way of seeing educational development. Implementing a monitoring system for a national program to reduce poverty Another example in using Beer’s approach to support a program for reducing poverty in Colombia, in 1994-1998 has also been reported in Espinosa et al. (2005). The social solidarity network (SSN) was the organisation designing and implementing programs to improve well-being in the poorest communities in the country and important investment resources had been attached to it for that purpose. Both the President’s Office and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) provided the investment resources supporting the program. Los Andes University guided the design of a monitoring system “Reunirse” to verify the impact of the investments in the communities and to monitor the proper use of the resources. About 140 lecturers and students from eight networked universities across the country implemented for four years the monitoring system, which was originally inspired on Beer’s idea of monitoring systems (system 3 * in the VSM). We designed – jointly with the SSN – a structure of participatory decision-making mechanisms to implement the programs and to monitor the main results from the SSN program. During the first year, while designing the system, the lecturers invited representatives from research institutes, industries and government to agree on the purpose of the investment programs, as well as the indices on which to base the monitoring system. We used an innovative statistical methodology for creating

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“poverty maps” for each locality and region in the country, and presented these maps as the basis for discussion on regional and local decisions to distribute the investment resources. In the so-called solidarity meetings (free translation for “Mesas de Solidaridad”), the SSN invited massive participation of community, industries and government representatives to make final decisions on investment priorities and programs for the poorest regions and localities. Meetings of several hundred (and sometimes several thousand) people were organised. Free access to the technical information helped to mitigate political pressures for resources based on criteria other than poverty. When designing the methodologies and tools, the researchers uncovered important paradigmatic breakdowns in their understanding of the idea of poverty suggested by the IADB. The university network agreed to follow an understanding of poverty that went beyond current practices from multi-lateral agencies, and to focus on measures of “non physical or economical” variables like people’s well being. We initiated research into how to use Max-Neef’s “Human Scale Development” approach as basis for measuring community well being and some of the monitoring indices agreed followed this approach. By the end of the first year, a whole set of monitoring indices had been agreed and information and communication systems were in place. First we experimented with pilot monitoring programs and then implemented the system extensively throughout the country. An important criteria coming from cybernetics was to focus the design of the monitoring system not exclusively on recovering information about the program’s development and emerging results but also in creating participatory decision-making and monitoring mechanisms with high involvement from communities and institutions affected or affecting the poverty levels. The students were located in statistically representative samples of municipalities receiving SSN resources, and they acted as “monitors”, collecting information about the program’s development and sending it in close to real time to the academic nodes of Reunirse. The monitoring indices went from structural aspects like levels of participation in the public decision mechanisms, to issues as perceived impact from beneficiaries on each particular investment project (e.g. housing, employment, alimentary aid, health aid, etc). Whenever an alarming situation (either too good or too bad) was reported, the students and researchers facilitated local decision-making to verify and act upon the unexpected issue. If this proved inadequate, they initiated intervention from a higher organisational level. In Beer’s language they reported the algedonic signals produced by the developing communities and institutions and promoted self-regulatory responses to incipient signals of instability. The university network developed a Syntegration in 1998, with representatives from the SSN, to assess the usefulness of the monitoring system. The majority of participants considered the system had left them with increased knowledge and experience on both the poverty situation of each region and the impact of SSN. The monitoring system had significantly influenced the results achieved by the SSN not only in terms of achieving program goals, but also in terms of building local and regional capacity to co-operatively find innovative ways of dealing with poverty and to encourage democratic participation in the development program. After four years of implementation, both the SSN and the IADB recognised this program as one of the most innovative experiences in monitoring systems in the region.

Analysis of the reported experiences As shown in the above examples, it is not enough to model societal development needs only with the concourse of a few international experts hired by the multilateral agencies controlling the investment resources. Systemic methodologies have proved to be particularly useful for facilitating public modelling exercises, by taking into account the knowledge of the stakeholders of the “system in focus” and making evident their own metrics so that they can progress to a shared understanding of the organisations they belong to and their implicit complexity. A cybernetic view of development programs emphasises the measurement of the many and varied relationships of the system in focus, not only the observable investment results. It means observing the structure of the interactions, not only the content of the development programs, in order to align the different metrics of intertwined actors in socio-economic development. In both the reported experiences, a critical part of the project was the initial stage when all stakeholders were invited to give their views on what were the main issues requiring investment, at each organisational level (national, regional, local). Normally the exercise showed clear differences with what the sponsoring institutions had pre-defined as the expected development program’s goals. Owing to political support for the systemically oriented programs from institutional leaders at the time (i.e. the Ministry of Education in the first example and the Director of the SSN in the second), it was possible in both cases to agree with the funding institutions on the diagnostic points and required structural adjustments as well as the revised design of the development programs and measurement systems. Both projects showed a change in emphasis in the design of the programs, from mainly supporting technological and managerial improvements, to empowering new kind of relationships among the main stakeholders and offering them a proper context to organise themselves to make the most of the investment resources made available. In both cases, the involvement of societal leaders, and their commitment to the new ideas and possibilities offered to them, resulted in advantages in terms of improving the system’s cohesion and making creative use of scarce results. None of them, however, went deeply enough into the issue of re-understanding societal development through a cybernetic lens and consequently, measuring critical societal variables for their own development. If we understand the ideas of latency and potentiality proposed by Beer, we will be able to re-address current practices on measuring development. Observing latency in a critical societal variable will show the best performance that a society has been able to demonstrate in that issue (therefore, the best we could expect it to do with its current knowledge and skills). Improvements in performance will happen by improving latency and potentiality. In both of these experiences, however, we were still trapped in the political game of responding to foreign models and measurements of development. It is clear that we are still missing an experience where three factors coincide: firstly, multiple views are included when modelling a society and its relevant needs; secondly, the suggested methodologies and tools are employed, with proper emphasis in creating structural conditions for self regulation; and thirdly, the main measures used by government and investment agencies coincide with those perceived as most relevant by the members of the society. Only when all these conditions happen, can we say we have made full use of cybernetic methodologies and measurement systems.

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Conclusion This paper explored the issue of understanding societal development and measuring critical variables for development programs. It supported the idea that we need to revisit our understanding of development, the design of intervention paradigms and related measurement systems. It made clear that there are alternative systemic paradigms for understanding development more as sustainable human development of societies than as economic growth. It introduced a specific systemic paradigm, that of managerial cybernetics, that offers a coherent language to re-understand societal viability and to rethink the traditional intervention paradigm on development programs. It suggested that Beer’s approach offers the required theoretical and methodological tools to redesign development interventions. The viable system model, the St Gallen’s management approach and cyberfilter, give us the required language, methodologies and tools to design and implement a proper management and measurement system. Development of a culture of self-regulation will result from following cybernetic criteria to design and implement the required management and measuring systems. Other systemic approaches to measuring societal development, such as Max-Neef’s Human Scale Development, may help to establish the language we need to agree collectively, as a society, on satisfiers of our basic needs. The soft systems approach and critical systems approaches may offer complementary tools for modelling stakeholder’s views or reaching complex agreements. The examples of development programs presented here, using systemic and cybernetic ideas and tools, illustrated some of the differences that happened as a result of adopting systemic criteria compared to more traditional development approaches. They indicated that by revisiting the design of development programs with a cybernetic lens, it is crucial to create structural conditions for improved self-regulation and for guaranteeing realisation of local potentials. It emphasized critical issues in this paradigmatic shift, like the democratic involvement of stakeholders, at all levels of development, from design to implementation of development programs and related monitoring systems. The understanding of monitoring systems proposed by Beer open the path for a more systemic way of handling critical measures for sustainable development and give the metrics for measuring long term rather than mainly short term development. It is clear that some multi-lateral agencies are increasingly open to learning and experimentation with more systemic approaches to development programs, as the examples have shown. They recognise the need to improve management of complexity in the design and implementation of these programs and the need to measure development results in relation to local needs. It seems important to increase our knowledge in this field, both at the conceptual and practical levels and the alliance between universities and development agencies looks like a desirable path to follow in this kind of applied research. More applied research in the issue is clearly an imperative for our times. References Beer, S. (1979), Heart of the Enterprise, Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1981), Brain of the Firm, 2nd ed., Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1983), “The will of the people”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 34 No. 8.

Clarke, J. (2004), “The Eudemony index: towards a methodology for overcoming chronic vulnerability to HIV/AIDS pathology by strengthening ‘community inmunity’ by the amplification of resilience factors”, available at: www.metaphorum.org (accessed 1 March 2005). Co-op (2003), “Coffee: what a difference a penny makes”, The Co-operative Group, available at: www.co-op.co.uk (accessed 30 March 2005). Dube, S.C. (1990), Modernization and Development: The Search for Alternative Paradigms, 2nd ed., Zed\Books Ltd & The United Nations University, London. Espejo, R. (2002), “Systems and the information society: requisite organizations and problem solving”, available at: www.icsty.co (accessed 18 March 2005). Espejo, R. and Schwaninger, M. (Eds) (1993), Organisational Fitness: Corporate Effectiveness through Management Cybernetics, Campus, Frankfurt. Espejo, R., Schuhmann, W., Schwaninger, M. and Billelo, U. (1996), Organisational Transformation and Learning, Wiley, Chichester. Espinosa, A. and Jackson, M.C. (2002), “A systemic look at educational development programs: two perspectives on a recent Colombian experience”, Kybernetes, Vol. 31 Nos 9/10, pp. 1324-35. Espinosa, A. and Walker, J. (2006), “Environmental management revisited: lessons from a cybernetic intervention in Colombia”, Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal, Vol. 37, pp. 75-92. Espinosa, A., Walker, J. and Harnden, R. (2005), “Cybernetics of participation”, Systemic Practice and Action Research, Vol. 17 No. 6, pp. 573-89. Floyd, M. (1984), Policy Making and Planning in Local Government: A Cybernetic Perspective, Gower Publishing Co Ltd, Hampshire. Henderson, H. (2002a), “A systems approach: Calvert-Henderson quality of life indicators”, available at: www.calvert-henderson.com (accessed 18 March 2005). Henderson, H. (2002b), “Quality of life”, available at: www.toda.org/conferences/sydney/papers/ henderson.html (accessed 1 March 2005). Luckett, S., Ngubane, S. and Memela, B. (2001), “Designing a management system for a rural community development organization using a systemic action research process”, Journal of Systems Practice and Action Research, Vol. 14 No. 4, pp. 517-42. Lundberg, M. and Squirre, L. (1999), “Simultaneous evolution of growth and inequality”, available at: www.worldbank.org/research/growth/pdffile/squirre.pdf (accessed 15 March 2005). Max-Neef, M.A. (1991), Human Scale Development: Conception, Application and Further Reflections, Apex Press, New York, NY. Potocan, V. and Mulej, M. (2003), “On requisitely holistic understanding of sustainable development from business viewpoints”, Systemic Practice and Action Research, Vol. 16 No. 6. Schwaninger, M. and Kroener, M. (2000), “Managing complex development projects: a systemic toolkit based on the St Gallen management framework”, available at: www.ifb.unisg.ch/ org/ifb/ifbweb.nsf/syswebressources/beitrag37/$file/db37_project_management.pdf (accessed 2 March 2005). Seabrook, J. (1993), Victims of Development: Resistance and Alternatives, Verso, New Left Books, London. Stokes, P. (2004), “From government to management of complexity: the cybernetics of governance”, available at: www.metaphorum.org (accessed 10 March 2005).

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UNDP (2004), “Human development report 2004”, available at: www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/ un/2004/hdr04.pdf (accessed 1 March 2005). UNDP (2005), “United Nations for international development cooperation: effectiveness of the UN development system and its operational activities”, available at: www.un.org/esa/ coordination/ecosoc/crp-capacities (accessed 15 March 2005). Walker, J. (1991), “The viable system model: a guide for co-operatives and federations”, available at: www.greybox.uklinux.net/vsmg_2.2/bibliograpgy.html (accessed 12 May 2005). Further reading Schuhmann, W. (1993), “Strategy for information systems in the film division of Hoechst”, in Espejo, R. and Schwaninger, M. (Eds), Organisational Fitness: Corporate Effectiveness through Management Cybernetics, Campus, Frankfurt. About the author In the early-1980s A. Espinosa graduated as a Computer and Systems Engineer in Los Andes University, Colombia. After some years of work for both private and public organisations as a Systems Analyst and Researcher, she headed the Secretariat of Information and Systems at the Colombian President’s Office in 1990-1992. In 1995, she got the PhD on Organisational Cybernetics and Information Management, at Aston Business School, Birmingham, UK. From 1995 to 2001 she was a part time lecturer in Los Andes University and part time consultant to some ministries and multilateral agencies (International Development Bank, United Nations) in the fields of organisational development and strategic use of information technologies, for the Colombian Public Sector. At the university she developed a post-graduate course on management control systems, and a Master Degree at the Industrial Engineering Department in Los Andes University and guided many Master’s theses on Applications of Systems Approaches to Management both in the public and private sectors. From 2002 she has been a lecturer and researcher at Hull Business School. Her teaching interests are in Systems Thinking, Organisational Cybernetics, Information Management, Learning Strategies, and Management of Change. Her current research focus is on organisational change and strategic use of information and communication technologies for organisational development, in particular in the fields of education and environment. A. Espinosa can be contacted at: [email protected]

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Improving national accounts Karl-Gustav Hansson

Improving national accounts

Statistics Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden Abstract

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Purpose – To present empirical and theoretical evidence that our national accounts are improper for model applications. To propose a design for a micro foundation of the basic economic data that will give analytical national accounts. To present arguments for the need for an academic and scientific foundation of national accounting. Design/methodology/approach – Reviews published works in the field. In the theoretical discussion simple index algebra and Edgeworth-Bowley boxes are used. Findings – Shows that conventional accounting methods and deflation procedures imply inconsistent national accounts. Research limitations/implications – To fulfill the idea presented, that new designs for sampling of basic data-based on new data technology have to be considered and developed. Also a new accounting system has to be developed based on modern administration systems. Practical implications – If the idea is fulfilled a new kind of national accounts suited for meaningful and analytical model applications will be available. The need to revise national accounts will not be a case to consider. Originality/value – The paper presents theoretical evidence that our national accounts are not analytical, which is requirement for meaningful model applications. National account users should be interested in the proposal and result. Keywords Cybernetics, Accounting systems, Economic doctrines, National economy Paper type Research paper

Introduction In the West a fair idea about the size of the tax base and a rough approximation of business cycles can usually be inferred from published national accounts. But for economic model applications, testing competing economic theories or hypotheses, formulating economic policy programs, making monetary policy decisions, considering investment decisions, making judgments concerning portfolio allocations, building and running forecasting models, properly analyzing an economy, doing a scientific, economic investigation, or running econometric models, then published national accounts will not do. The reason is that they are insufficiently analytical for such applications. This characterization of the national accounts is in line with a distinction by Kuznets (1946), and an argument outlined by Morgenstern (1950). Stone (1984) and Malinvaud (1995) also discussed this in similar terms. But it is more common for criticizers to talk in terms as inaccuracy, non-reliability, non-consistency, and non-timeliness. That national accounts provide the most comprehensive overview available of developments in national economies is a well-established view among statistical bureaus and users. Nevertheless, from the 1940s onwards the time series published cannot be used in serious and sensitive model applications. This will also be the case The author wishes to thank Steven Wentworth and Nick Green for their efforts in improving his English, and to Lars-Erik O¨ller for his specific remarks.

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 45-64 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640227

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for number of years to come, as the design of sampling and editing basic statistics and the compilation of national accounts in the main will be the same as in the past. The evidence is overwhelming, empirically as well as statistically. Since the 1950s there have been incredible developments in economic statistics, national accounting systems, economic theories, forecasting models, statistical methods, econometrics, time-series analyses, and electronic capacities. Nevertheless, using national accounts these developments have not brought any improvements in the accuracy of model applications. But all the time, there has been an ongoing and growing criticism, mostly profound, and quite often somewhat rude. Continuously sophisticated “filtering instruments” are developed for adjustment of published economic and GDP figures, hopefully for better usefulness. It is true that a number of international recommendations have been agreed upon about how to set up national accounts, the so-called System of National Accounts, SNA (1953, 1968, 1993) and European System of National Accounts, ESA (1995). But these manuals are only extensive and detailed frameworks for systematic and integrated recording of the flows and stocks of an economy. None of them provides guidelines for obtaining accurate, reliable, consistent, and timely national accounts. They do not contain instructions about: . quality management; . methods of estimation and compilation; . how to construct stable and lasting terminology; . how to construct a workable set up of accounts; and . statistical description of the outcome. A structure for analyzing national accounts National accounting is based on the principle of double entry, well-established at least since the Mesopotamian era. Nevertheless, it is not a pure and sound accounting in the sense of established bookkeeping. It is basically a statistical estimate of the stocks and flows of the economy. In the compilation process also administrative and system-based methods are used, especially in the balancing procedure. One proper way to judge the outcome of the national accounts is, therefore, by statistical theory, time series analyses, and system analyses. But this is not enough for improvements. It is crucial to identify the critical and determining sources of errors, and this is a complex matter. A number of references indicate that the statistical outcome can be characterized as: . national accounts have no analytic content; . national accounts are not consistent or neutral; and . national accounts do not meet the analytic requirements as determined by sensitive model application, econometric theory, and mathematical propositions. And due to insufficient interest in the international recommendations, a revealing description is to summarize the reasons as, lack of: . sufficient philosophical and scientific interest; . a substantive statistical quality approach; . constructive and effective operational approach; and . deep and workable insights in the subject matter.

Such characterizations indicate that one should look for a purely formal and analytical form when considering improvements in the national accounts. An approach that points out what has to be analyzed, and measured is to consider: . The philosophical platform. . The academic foundation. . The operational solution. . The underlying data. The philosophical platform concerns accounting ideas, fixed prices, semantic of definitions and such matters. The academic foundation deals with the degree and kind of academic education, training and background, and scientific research. The operational solution is about the accounting system, the administrative system, and the compilation methods. And underlying data concerns the quality and usefulness of micro data sampled and compiled for the national accounts. All these basic features are equally important and tightly interrelated in a complex fashion, especially when determining the final character and statistical outcome of the national accounts, and thereby the outcome of economic analysis and other sensitive model applications. Disposition of the paper In the following arguments will be taken up supporting the implementation of a system that will secure an effective compilation of sound, analytic, authentic, and entirely consistent national accounts that can be applied for use in sensitive model applications. First, some formal basics of such national accounts will be presented by formulating the problem and discussing analyticity. After that a basic national accounting system is outlined. As the Chinese Philosopher Mo Tzu (c. 470-391 BC) said: whoever criticizes others, must have something to replace what he criticizes. To complete the system also the basic micro foundations in fixed and current prices and an operational system for dynamic analytical accounting and compilation have to be considered. But that will be done elsewhere. The character of published national accounts ¨ ller and Hansson (2004) show that the revision distributions of some expenditure O components of Swedish quarterly GDP are significantly non-normal, being leptokurtic, with frequent and considerable outliers. Government consumption (GC), investment, and imports and exports of services, were revised so much and erratically, they conclude, that the use of them can seriously be questioned. The study covers the period 1980-1998. It is also shown that there are considerable differences in seasonal patterns between different vintages. For example, changes from an M pattern in the first preliminary vintage, to a > pattern in a final vintage, and back again to an M pattern ¨ ller and Hansson in a latest vintage several years later. Consistency of vintages, O argue, would require co-integration and a common stochastic trend, but none was found for any frequency, further emphasizing the incongruence between preliminary and final data. For many components, they found, revisions were positively correlated with the business cycle, i.e. revised upwards in upturns and downwards in downturns. The average growth rate changes between the different vintages. As a plausible explanation, they point out shaky underlying data, biased imputation rules, imprudent

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judgment, and sampling problems. The latest revision (several years later) was primarily due to new classification rules according to SNA (1993) and ESA (1995). To that list can also be added the operational solution, especially applied methods of consolidation and balancing. The findings of O¨ller and Hansson (2004) are alarming. If different vintages of the national accounts were sufficient and efficient statistical estimates of the same variable, for the same time interval, then one should expect minor revisions, and different vintages of revisions to be co-integrated. The revealed magnitude of the discrepancies and statistical insufficiencies between the analyzed vintages indicate that the estimation methods chosen are not capable of yielding stable, accurate, meaningful, and useful estimates. This is a strong indication that the operational solution chosen and underling data used force the GDP estimates to be non-authentic, and non-analytical, and thereby less reliable and useful in sensitive model applications. Especially there is strong evidence that a sensible application of at least some of the variables of national accounts in model applications is very doubtful. Users have to be aware of these statistical features, and properly take them into account. This might be an unsolvable problem under available national recommendations and conventional methods of estimation. ¨ ller and Hansson (2004) also compared the annual GDP revision of 12 OECD O countries, including Sweden. It was shown that revisions generally increase the growth rates, usually referred to as underestimation bias, and that the distributions tend to be skew, and maybe bimodal. Small countries have slightly larger spreads then larger economies. And for most European countries, including Sweden, the revisions were positively correlated with the business cycle. The shapes of the distributions differ greatly between the countries, from rather leptokurtic to rather platykurtic, with a number of peculiar shapes between, but attention has to be paid to the somewhat small number of observations. A number of outliers were also observed. It is possible to group the countries in two or three main groups according to the shape of the revision distribution. This may indicate differences in basic compilation methods between groups of OECD countries. For OECD countries there is no evidence presented that revisions of the quarterly GDP and its components significantly differ from those found for Sweden. For example, York and Atkinson (1997) show that for seven large OECD countries that the average size of quarterly revisions of GDP demands components is very large, in some cases exceeding the average growth rate. They also show wide measurement errors, reflected in large average dispersions and standard deviations, especially for GC, and exports and imports of goods and services, which indicate, they conclude, wide margins of uncertainty. When comparing with similar and earlier OECD studies York and Atkinson did not find that estimates are getting better or worse over time. These results are disappointing as the poor quality of the demand components is a serious defect. Good national accounts data, they argue, are highly desirable, and improvements would be welcome. And they point out that users of any type of data must always be aware of data limitations and discount them accordingly. Similar results are shown by Grim and Parker (1998) regarding US quarterly and annual GDP figures see also Tengblad (1992) on Swedish quarterly data for the period 1972-1988. Glejser and Schavey (1974), in a study of 40 countries, found that revisions often show a zigzag pattern.

The studies referred to above are not isolated evidence that the national accounts lack analytic content and usefulness in sensitive model applications. Internationally there are a large number of studies supporting this. For an extensive reference list see, for example, Hansson (2002). Since the 1940s, according to these, there has been: . a constant cry over bad national accounts in timeliness, accuracy, reliability, and usefulness in model applications; . a constant demand for improvements in these matters; . a number of scientific investigations showing that the national accounts have not improved over the years; . a number of scientific investigations showing non response from official bureaus to quality and scientifically-based criticism; . a number of calls to be aware of data limitations and take that into account in model applications; and . a number of demands for a scientific foundation. All these testimonies indicate that one should be aware that: . economic analysis is not reliable; . empirical investigations are not recommendable; . econometric analyses are not meaningful; . testing economic hypotheses is impossible; . a reliable or meaningful forecast cannot be obtained; . fine tuning of the economy is not possible; and . formulation of economic and monetary policies can be risky. Towards a new agenda for national accounting Should it be possible to do efficient, accurate, and reliable model applications? If the answer is yes, then one has to consider if one can state that: . sophisticated models require sophisticated data; . data should not be the cause of a model’s breakdown; . if the model requires consistent and analytical data, then the data needs to be consistent and analytical; and . if the model is constructed to describe and forecast a certain complexity of the economy, then the data needs to fit that requirement. To meet all this, production of underlying data, compilation of the national accounts, and sensitive model applications have to be integrated on a sound and operational scientific basis. National accounts should be: . analytic, authentic, and entirely consistent; and . easy to understand and use. This implies:

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real time and quantity consistent book keeping in current and fixed prices by the economic agents; and a simple and workable accounting system.

For that, consideration is needed about how to implement: . analytical and authentic national accounts; . straightforward sampling systems; . a straightforward accounting system; . straightforward and lasting concepts; and . scientific competence. But that is not enough. To secure proper implementation, maintenance, and development, there is need of: . academic foundation and academic research; and . academic training for compilers and users. All this means that the compilation situation for the national accounts needs to be entirely rebuilt by developing: . a simple accounting system; . consistent, analytical and authentic basic figures; . an efficient sampling system; . an efficient administrative system; . new methods of consolidation and balancing; and . an academic foundation. The alternative is to be satisfied by estimating a decent tax base and to have a fair idea about the business cycle. If that is enough no further improvements or changes need to be made, except those demanded by international organizations. Under the present compilation agenda this is the only sure outcome and possibility. Despite 60 years of fair intentions of implementing changes for the better, no improvements in usefulness in model applications have been verified so far. It is possible to do better. But that requires a turnover of the basic philosophical platform, the academic foundation, the operational solution, and the underlying data. Identification of the problem The national accounts do not possess the most elementary properties desired for reliable and sensitive model applications and scientific analysis. Given the present approach of producing statistics not very much or nothing can be done about this. What can be done to analyze the situation? It was suggested above to split this question into the philosophical platform, the academic foundation, the operational solution, and the underlying data. The state of these four aspects of national accounting are fully capable, independently and by themselves of keeping the national accounts non-analytic, non-accurate, non-reliable, and non-meaningful. It is natural to start a discussion about the statistical outcome from the operational solution and

underlying data available, i.e. from system-, method-, and data-based approaches. For a complete overview and lasting compilation it is also important to consider the philosophical platform and lay down a proper academic foundation.

A demand for simplification and improvements The system of SNA (1993) is consistent, coherent, completely integrated, and operational, and covers every aspect of economic activities, as is stated in the manual. Nevertheless, it is not transparent enough for effective and optimal estimation. There are too many: descriptions, accounting structures, and vague concepts. Operationally this has resulted in unpleasant features. The system is wide open for confusing and cumbersome administrative data systems, heavy and costly compilation, misunderstandings, wrong and contradictory interpretations, inconsistent accounting, no contra accounting, repeated contra accounting, different kinds of residuals that cannot be balanced, and administrative mistakes. There are also failures caused by the compilation methods applied, as net accounting, trade margins, quality adjustment methods, the balancing procedure, the input-output approach of intermediate consumption, fixed input coefficients, a number of system compilations within the data system like VAT, capital consumption and intermediate consumption, the fixed price compilation, imputations of fictitious production, the compilation of the government sector, quasi-accounting, quasi-reconciliation, and reference year carrying (t 2 1) prices. In other words, system created forces and compilation methods can be identified that show the accounting to be not analytical, not balanceable, not consistent, and not accurate. A vast source of error is the underlying basic data, which are complex and huge in dimension. One serious situation is that production and expenditure data are independently sampled from different sources and are not mutually consistent. This is a decisive blow. From the beginning data faultiness forces the national accounts to be non-analytical, not balanceable, not consistent, and not accurate, regardless the state of other sources. There are innumerable possibilities for data errors and deficiencies in conventional statistical data sampling and compilation. Further, it is not possible to record the present economy efficiently, accurately and authentically, while at the same time trying to implement a confusing and cumbersome accounting system, which yields severe interpretation problems, causes administrative management difficulties, and implies problems in model application and vague and hazy possibilities for economic analysis and specifying economic and monetary policies. A simpler SNA can be formulated, which is consistent and manageable in measuring a dynamic economy and compiling quick and lasting figures. It would be a system that is at least consistent, coherent, completely integrated, and operational as SNA (1993). It is essential to reconsider basic concepts and their logical structure. For example: . There must be an effective and sound correspondence between reality and its micro-based macro accounting. . The relationship between micro and macro-data in the national accounts must be direct and entirely consistent.

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. .

An instantly workable and understandable basic national accounts that is neutral must be implemented and operational, imposing timely and quick consolidation and application for comprehensive economic analyses and studies. The system must be malleable to be reshaped to required analysis and model applications that are statistically advisable. The system must enable instant recording of the real economy. Operational concepts should appeal to common understanding and endure over time.

National accounts are not analytical There are a number of operational reasons why our national accounts are not analytical, and cannot be under the present statistical agenda, for example: (1) A clear and effective demarcation between production and intermediate production has not been considered. This is the case of accounting in the government sector. Further, the compilation of the government sector is entirely non-analytical with respect to consolidation and accounting in fixed price. (2) The ideas of final production and final consumption are not clearly developed. (3) The monitoring of new and vanishing products is not satisfactorily solved in fixed price accounting. (4) The underlying data’s basic feature is misleading, faulty, contradictory and inconsistent, forcing national accountants to make subjective considerations, which include pure guesses and invented figures, without any auxiliary statistics. (5) Wrong philosophy and accounting in fixed prices, which is not consistent or coherent with the accounting in current prices. (6) The input/output technique used in consolidation and balancing. (7) The international recommendations, especially SNA (1993) and ESA (1995), which are too complex for a satisfactory or even possible monitoring. (8) The insensitivity of the system to basic quality and stable definitions. (9) The deficiency of a number of compilation models used, which yield erroneous and misleading figures. (10) The extensive use of imputations of fictitious values, some of which are non-logically accounted. The first four points are well recognized. The fifth point is not yet fully recognized. The sixth point appears not to have been discussed as a quality or a consistency problem, since it usually is regarded by national accountants as an outstanding instrument for balancing production and assuring consistent national accounts. But actually it is a fearful disaster for a meaningful and authentic model application. With respect to Sweden, it was implemented as a balancing and consolidation tool for our accounts in the 1990s, and starting with the year 1980. In one sense this implementation implied a complete breakdown for the whole the time series from 1950 an onwards. The outcome of econometric analysis is dependent on which series is used. When using the whole series from 1950 and onwards, it produces complete nonsense in

econometric model applications, and when dividing the series in two parts, yields opposing results. See Ohlsson and Andersson (1998) about such experiments. By comparing the outcome of econometric model applications, one has to ask whether the old method of consolidation is to be blamed, or the new one, or both. But the quality and reliability problem is deeper than that. By themselves, the first six-points render the national accounts inconsistent and non-neutral. The sixth point alone forcefully does this. The points seven to ten have not yet been discussed as a quality problem. But, a simple, sound and easily managed system is a prerequisite for being able to compile national accounts of high quality. The situation is unsatisfactory The production situation described is risky. The probability of presenting a correct account, under such circumstances, to correctly make account of a dynamic economy characterized by substantial and rapid structural change, like the present, is not very high. When established statistical methods are used in sampling and compiling basic data, it seems they immediately go away in the production process in such a manner that the basic statistic from the outset is deficient and inferior. There is no accurate or scientific evidence of improvement when it is fitted into the national accounts. Empirical researchers will never know for certain what the outcome of their experiments tells them. I strongly doubt they can find a significant or important economic relationship or prove an economic hypothesis or theory. More likely, they will find strong indications of faults, inconsistencies and contradictions regarding national accounts, or economic statistics, or the economic theory, or applied models. Since it is not possible to present any purely objective figures, or a sufficient description of the shortcomings in the published figures, there exist no premises for an effective and true interpretation and discrimination of the obtained results in relation to faulty data or the application of a faulty model or theory. The shortcomings of the data ¨ ller and Hansson (2004), that it is are so serious, frequent and complex, as shown by O not possible, nor recommendable, to conduct a specification analysis, look for weaknesses in the economic theory through empirical inquiry, or describe specific data problems. Knowledge about the degree of correctness of a model or an economic theory will never be obtained. Testing and developing workable economic theories have surely come to an end before they have even started. Consider analytical and authentic monthly national accounts The problems now identified are deep and complex. There is no realistic possibility of solving them under SNA (1993) and ESA (1995) within an acceptable time horizon, nor under the established conventions for sampling and compilation of basic economic figures, nor under the present conventions for consolidation, balancing, maintenance, and administration of our national accounts. Analytic and authentic statistics are a basic requirement for useful, meaningful and sensitive model applications. Importantly, an analytical approach, instead of a conventional statistical approach, would focus on new possibilities for improving economic statistics and national accounts. A constructive approach is to connect a change to consolidating monthly, analytical and authentic national accounts. Based on analytical, authentic and micro-based basic

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economic figures. It would be based and published under a monthly and accumulative production cycle, successively consolidating monthly, quarterly, and half yearly and yearly national accounts. Analytical criteria for national accounting To maintain true, meaningful and sensitive model applications under the national accounts, one has to be aware of: . accounting consistency; . operational efficiency; . constituent requirements; and . a basic national account. All are interdependent. Accounting consistency refers to the functionality of econometric methods and other sensitive methods of economic analysis and forecasting. Operational efficiency will secure fast, steady and controllable accounting. The constituent requirements involve the quality of basic data. A basic national account will stabilize the environment for operational efficiency; and it is a necessity for a reasonable possibility of consolidating accounting consistency. The approach is well suited for the integration of data production and national accounting, with the development of economic theory, econometric techniques, analytical methods, economic and time series analysis and forecasting. The approach is also a good objective towards a development of monthly national accounting and consolidation. Accounting consistency Accounting consistency is basically about the micro foundations, as it is about: . product consistency; . value consistency; . time consistency; . space consistency; . neutral accounting; . sound accounting; . concepts consistent within the account and between years; and . methods consistent over time. This is more than is required for double entry accounting in a closed accounting system and for the consistency, coherency and integration thoroughly established by SNA (1993) and ESA (1995). In one sense, accounting consistency can be regarded as consisting of “axioms” from which the necessary requirements can be derived for basic data and accurate economic research, such as forecasting and econometric analysis. In other words, they require accounting consistency. This means that accounting consistency and economic research are integrated. Together, they determine precisely the accuracy level of basic data and the limits of their use.

Product consistency Product consistency refers to the simultaneous accounting of the national accounts by their true and constituent entities according to the principle of double entry accounting. For example, intermediate consumption is correctly double accounted when it is bought and used; production and its use are correctly double accounted in relation to the involved agents, time and space. One can talk about partial consistency, such as for the production account and factor income distribution account. There will also be a different periodicity for certain entities, for example production, sales and consumption. Product consistency is a crucial property for the national accounts and their application. For example, it is a prerequisite for efficient econometric and economic analysis and forecasting. Conventional national accounts are not product consistent. For example, production and consumption are measured independently of each other; intermediate consumption is estimated by a fixed input coefficient in fixed prices; the balancing of production and consumption is an approximation, residuals are hidden and the convention of using trade margins as production values is used. Value consistency Value consistency refers to the true value index, accurately factored into the true price and quantity indices. This implies that only the actually traded prices and quantities can be considered, such as p iy i, where p i is the traded price and y i is the traded quantity for a certain product i, at a certain time and location. In the end this means the application of dynamic indices like Hansson (1996, 2002). The present national accounts are not value consistent. The quantities accounted in current prices, is not accounted in fixed prices, instead many-valued interpretation can be shown. For example, some quantities accounted in current prices are not accounted in fixed prices, or some are accounted two times in fixed prices, or some quantities are accounted by the wrong agent. Time and space consistency Time and space consistency refer to the true weighting of the national accounts over time and space. Formally, this can be stated in current and fixed prices as N ST ¼

XX t[T s[S

N st ¼

XX s[S t[T

N st

nST ¼

XX t[T s[S

nst ¼

XX nst

ð1Þ

s[S t[T

where t ¼ day, T ¼ month, quarter, half-year or year, s ¼ sufficiently small space unit, S ¼ region or country, N ¼ national accounts in current prices, and n ¼ national accounts in fixed prices. This implies that the underlying price and quantity indices must be constituted by their true time and space weights. From equation (1) we see that time and space consistent national accounts in current and fixed prices imply space and time consistent price and quantity indices, which will ensure the possibility of consolidating space and time consistent national accounts in current and fixed prices. Thus, consistent national accounts and consistent price and quantity indices are interdependent. If price and quantity indices are measured continually over time and space, then it can be established that periodically distributive price and quantity indices are time and

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space consistent. Assume that prices change between days. Daily measurement of price and quantity will be necessary and sufficient to assure time and space consistency. Conventionally consolidated national accounts are not time and space consistent, nor is the CPI, which is extensively used in national accounting. Since price and quantity measurements are linked to their geographical location, space consistency is assured by value and time consistency. Space consistency emphasizes the possibility of an arbitrary and consistent split of the national accounts into regional parts. Time and value consistent national accounts simultaneously signify time and value consistent national accounts by space and regions. All of these are determined by equation (1). Neutral and sound accounting Neutral accounting is where institutional changes do not change the value of the national accounts. In its present formulation, this applies mainly to GDP. Conventional national accounts are not neutral. For example, changes in the rate of employer’s social contributions and capital consumption will change the GDP through an accounting change in the government’s value added (VA). This is not the case for the private sector. Furthermore, through the rate of employer’s social contributions, increased governmental employment causes the VA to be overvalued, and vice versa when governmental employment decreases. Note that such a tax change will not affect the VA for the private sector in the accounting. The implemented production value for own dwelling is also non-neutral. On the whole, government activities are by themselves not neutral in the national accounts. For example, a change in public subsidies for health care will change the public share of the GDP in the consolidation of taxes and subsidies. This issue is discussed among others by Pigou (1962), Kuznets (1948) and Hicks (1995). In sound accounting, only real activities should be accounted. This requirement is rather weak in its present formulation. Fictitious accounting should not be allowed, especially in the production account and the factor distribution account. This is a controversial issue involving, for example, the imputed production and private use of own dwellings. Concept and method consistency Concept consistency refers to the requirement that defined concepts be consistent within the national accounts as well as over time. Furthermore, they should be consistent with normal semantics. Major changes of classification systems, such as ISIC, SNI, and SNR and accounting system such as SNA (1953, 1968, 1993) and ESA (1995), have implied a complete breakdown in concept consistency over time, with crude overlapping series as a consequence. One should not change methods of accounting and consolidating national accounts. Can this be avoided? If not, what can we do about for overlapping divergences in past series? This property is very important since adjustment of overlapping divergences produces problems. For example, Sweden has radically changed consolidation methods several times, which is disastrous for econometric investigations. Ohlsson ¨ ller and Hansson (2004). Thus, if and Andersson (1998) is an example. See also O methods of compiling must be changed, for some reason, it must be considered very carefully. The considerations must be carefully documented.

Operational and constituent requirements Inefficiencies, instabilities, and inconsistencies in the national accounts are, for example, caused by such factors as the balancing strategy between the production and consumption side, the fixed input coefficient approach when determining the intermediate consumption, the reclassification of constituent agents and concepts between years, and the use of trade margins and the micro statistical units. The constituent requirement is the very core of the national accounts, its contents and usefulness. The underlying statistics should be accurate and robust. This also involves the simultaneous accounting of production, consumption and income, implying that the manual balancing and fixed input coefficient approaches that create inconsistency can be avoided. Both the outgoing operational system of the current national accounts and the new one being implementated do not meet these requirements. And, the underlying statistics are not very reliable. Basic operational foundations An important prerequisite for analytical national accounting is a basic and transparent accounting system, which is not only about securing efficient accounting and sensible and sensitive model application, but also to ensure efficient and constructive analysis of the system itself. Such a system is discussed in the next section. This system is transparent, easy to understand and account, and addresses both national accountants and users. In a snapshot it gives an idea about the state of a nation’s economic situation. The system is completely consistent, coherent, integrated, and operational in accounting. It covers completely a nation’s economy, from the defined production to its true financial saving, and the true balance of payment; true in the sense that by definition it contains no unsound and imputed values. The accounting system described is analyzable in all respects; for example, investigating the effects of certain accounting, as the government sector or the imputed production and consumption of own dwellings. It is also complete in covering a national economy and its economic relationships with the rest of the world. But a basic system of accounting is not enough for developing analytical and authentic national accounts. Equally important is to consider Basic Micro Foundations; which is about how from the very beginning to secure analytical and authentic national accounts, i.e. the prerequisites for underlying micro figures in current and fixed prices. See Hansson (1996, 2002) for an introduction to this matter. Also equally important, is to develop An Administrative System for dynamic and analytical accounting; which is about how to develop and secure an effective procedure of sampling and compilation of basic data, and to consolidate and balance the national accounts, which mean that efficient operational features of the system carefully have to be considered; i.e. develop a simple, efficient, and operational data system. These two late headings will not be further discussed here. Towards a basic system of national accounting The availability of a workable and logical accounting system is essential to the whole idea of accounting consistency and analytical national accounts; not the least as it provides a framework by which the national accounts system itself can efficiently be analyzed and investigated; for example about its potential to maintain analytic and

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sound compilations. Also the accounting system should provide for efficient economic analysis, planning and a great variety of sensitive model applications. Its characteristics should include a straightforward possibility for immediate accounting and flexibility in use; ease of maintenance in an operational system; ease of administration and understanding; and a capability to simultaneously decompose aggregates into their constituent parts and restructure to meet certain users’ special applications. Efficient double entry accounting National accounts are preferably constructed according to the method of double entry accounting, which is just a mathematical entity, as Debit ; Credit

ð2Þ

There exist innumerable reordering and accounting structures satisfying equation (2), some effective, and some less effective. According to equation (2) all of these accounts are mathematically correct. One is the system of SNA (1993); copied in ESA (1995). But a mathematically correct accounting does not necessarily imply an advisable system. A system implying muddled accounting and application would not be preferred. Preferable is an accounting system that is neutral, straightforward, complete, and easy to operate, maintain, administer and apply. But in conventional approaches concerning the government and households sectors, it is not possible to set up a neutral account. Nonetheless, understandable and applicable national accounts are a possibility. Figure 1 is a step towards such an accounting system. It shows what is needed to fully obtain a sound and neutral system of accounting. Four sectors and a consecutive order of six accounts In analysis the economy is usually divided into four sectors: the service industry, the goods industry, government and households. This is a convenient disaggregation in many respects, not the least in national accounting, and can be followed in Figure 1. Further, for efficient economic analysis and planning, and sensitive model applications a well diversified accounting system is needed that clearly, completely and simply enough shows where the production occurs, its distribution, consolidation and maintenance. For that a consecutive order of five revealing and logically connected accounts within the sectors is chosen. These are: the production account, the factor income distribution account, the result distribution account, the capital formation account, and the foreign account. These accounts are interconnected within sectors as well as between sectors; within the sectors through contra accounting and a consecutive contra accounting over the balancing items; and between sectors through contra accounting. To close the system, a balance account for the whole economy is introduced, which is the final contra account, turning the system to a simultaneous identity. Thereby the system also becomes an equivalent to the classical macro identity. The accounting structure chosen makes the system consistent, coherent, completely integrated and operational. It also covers every aspect of the real economic activities. The financial counterpart is not considered. A special VAT account is introduced, which is not necessary, but convenient. It is an auxiliary account. In a sense it efficiently purifies the accounting. Further, due to the conventional pattern economies are accounted, special accounts for the government

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Figure 1. Towards a basic system of national accounting

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and households sectors income and expenditures have to be introduced. Regarding the government this is the account for taxes, subsidies and transfers, and for the households the account for income and expenditures. The production account opens the accounting system, and the balance account of the whole economy closes it into an identity. The accounting structure chosen is in a mathematical sense equivalent to SNA (1993) and ESA (1995), but more concentrated, directly focusing upon the aggregates of interest when analyzing, forecasting, and forming economic policies. Every entry is double accounted, once on the debit side and once on the credit side. In conventional national accounting, the government and households sectors differ considerably from the accounting of the service and goods industries. That difference is shown in Figure 1. The accounts described and exemplified In the production account, the use of production and intermediate consumption, i.e. goods and services used in production, are accounted. On the credit side the users of the production are accounted, for example, private consumption (PC) of services. For illustration purpose a sum of 550 has been inserted, which is contra-accounted on the debit side of the account for the households income and expenditures. On the debit side of the production account intermediate consumption is accounted. For example, the import of the service industry of 25 which is contra-accounted on the credit side of the foreign account. Balancing item is VA, which is contra-accounted on the credit side of the factor income distribution account. For the service industry, VA (saldo) 600 exemplifies this. In the factor distribution account, the VA is distributed on the factors of production, labor and capital. On the debit side labor is given wages and employer’s social contributions and capital receives what is left, the surplus, which also is the balancing item and contra-accounted on the result distribution account. The established convention is to regard employer’s social contributions as a contribution to the labor included in the concept of wage, which can be questioned. In the resulting distribution account, the distribution of the surplus, subsidies received and other income not connected to production are accounted. Examples of other income, accounted on the credit side, are dividends, interest and royalties. On the debit side, these incomes are distributed on capital consumption, taxes and dividends. The balance, the savings, can be regarded as savings from production, and is contra-accounted on the credit side of the capital formation account. In the capital formation account the different capital transactions are recorded. On the credit side, capital consumption and savings are accounted. On the debit side, investment and land transaction are accounted. The balance, financial savings (FS), is contra-accounted on the credit side of the balance account. The foreign account is divided into two different accounts, the trade account and the capital account. Exports and imports of goods and services are accounted in the trade account. The balance, the balance of trade, is contra-accounted on the balance account. Money movements over the border, such as interests and wages, are accounted in the capital account. The balance, capital balance, is contra-accounted on the debit side of the balance account. There is no balancing item in the balance account, as it is the final contra account of the system itself. The FS of the domestic agents are contra-accounted on the credit side.

And on the debit side the balances of the domestic agents’ foreign accounts are contra-accounted. By the identity property of double accounting, these two sides of the balance account will simultaneously balance. This closes the national accounting system, and makes it equivalent to the classical macroeconomic identity.

Improving national accounts

The government sector The accounted production of the service and goods industries is determined solely in the production account, and is in that sense neutral and sound. This is not the case for the government sector. In national accounting, the accounting of the government sector is a kind of compromise, forcing the government accounting to be non-neutral in the national accounts. Operationally this is an effect of the special character of the government sector. From one point of view, the government is a production unit of non-market services, like education, health, law and defense. From another point of view, the government is also a tax collector and a distributor of subsidies and transfers. So far, one has not found a proper accounting structure or order for this. Following the Swedish design in consolidating the government sector, which is not the case in other countries, three accounts are involved. One can say that the government production accounting starts with capital consumption on the result distribution account. The balancing item is the surplus, which is contra-accounted on the debit side of the factor income distribution accounts, where wages and employers’ social contributions are accounted, thereby constituting the VA for the government sector as the sum of capital consumption, wages and employer’s social contributions. That VA is contra-accounted on the debit side of the production account, where also the government’s intermediate consumption is accounted, and thereby constituting its production value as the sum of intermediate consumption and VA on the debit side. On the credit side government sales, for example, local parking fees, are accounted. The balancing item is called GC, which is contra-accounted on the debit side of the account for taxes, subsidies and transfers. As can be seen government production, valued added, and consumption are determined by the chosen way of accounting, turning the whole national account to be non-neutral. Taxes, subsidies and transfers, is a special account introduced for the government sector in Sweden. Internationally there might be other solutions. On its credit side all kinds of government taxes are accounted, like employer’s social contributions, taxes on wage, wealth and enterprises, and VAT on final consumption. And on its debit side government expenditures that are not intermediate consumption is accounted, like pensions, subsidies, and interests. Note the imputed value Prod Government, which is VAT on the government production value determined by EU; one further item that forces the national accounts to be non-neutral. The balancing item is government saving, which is contra-accounted on its capital formation accounts. As a result of the accounting, we now see that a change in the capital consumption rate will not change the GDP contribution of the private sector, but for the government sector, which means that the government sector here is not neutral. We also see that this problem could be avoided if we do not involve the result distribution account of the government in the determination of its production value. The same goes for changes in government wages and investments, which permanently change the GDP, while they do not in private accounting.

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The households sector Households have two features in the national accounts, as a production unit of own dwellings and as a final consumer unit of production. By convention owner-occupied dwellings are regarded as service production consumed by the owner itself. According to SNA (1993, 6.89) the service should be valued at the estimated rate that a tenant would pay for the same accommodation, taking into account factors such as location, neighborhood amenities, etc. as well as the size and quality of the dwelling itself. This fictitious value is imputed on the credit side in the households production account. The imputed value is non-neutral, as it depends of methods of imputation. On the debit side SNA (1993, 9.59), expenditures that the owner-occupier incurs on decoration, maintenance and repair of the dwelling would be accounted. In Sweden, for example, also insurance is included, which probably in reality creates a non-balanceable production account in the actual compiling. The balancing item, VA, turns out also to be the surplus. For the feature as a final consumer PC, an account for the households income and expenditures is also introduced. The production, expenditures and income forms of GDP Consolidation of the production accounts of the sectors yields gross national product, GDP, from the production and expenditure sides. Adding up the factor income distribution accounts of the sectors results in GDP from the income and production sides. Adding up the accounts of result distribution account, and capital formation account, yields respective accounts for the whole economy. And consolidating of the VAT accounts produces the consolidated VAT account for the whole economy. And finally, the closing balance account is constituted through the final balancing of the sectors’ account. About monthly intermediate consumption In daily accounting, there are a number of problems connected with intermediate consumption and trade, especially if you want to consolidate reliable and useful monthly national accounts. One problem is when firms buy a certain amount of intermediate consumption goods that are used over a longer period of time when needed in production. Should this intermediate consumption be accounted when it is bought or when it is used in the production process? To maintain a simultaneous balance in the national accounts, a proper solution is that the producer account for it in the production account when it is produced, and that the buyer account for it as intermediate consumption in his production account when it is used. For an easy accounting administration of this, the producer and the user must set up an inventory account and an intermediate inventory account. Likewise, the trader should have a stock of merchandise account for an effective daily account of his trades, indicating gross accounting of trade. In monthly accounting, these three auxiliary accounts are of great help. They are a prerequisite for the practical possibilities of maintaining in reality entirely consistent accounting. These auxiliary accounts are particularly helpful in keeping authentic and consistent production figures on the monthly level. Moreover, all three will be netted out together with the production account in the consolidation procedure, see Hansson (2002).

Conclusions The situation for the national accounts is confusing and unsatisfactory. Since the 1940s national accountants steadily have claimed in public that the quality, reliability, and international comparability in published national accounts has continuously have improved over the years, while users forcefully claim that this is not the case. During the same period a number of studies overwhelmingly show that one has to think it over carefully before using national accounts in sensitive model applications, and that it is not possible yet to judge whether the national accounts have improved or not over the years. But Pyatt (1991) concludes in a UN publication that the national accounts in many countries have noticeably deteriorated over time in quality and timeliness, and blame to some extent SNA (1968) for that. Under the prevailing accounting approach it is not possible to initiate improvements in published GDP figures. A new system and agenda of accounting and maintenance should be developed. The national accounts have to be consolidated and balanced from monthly accounts, over quarterly accounts into yearly accounts. And importantly, gross accounting for the conventional net accounting in all respects, i.e. for example, margins as trade production values have to be avoided. A simplified accounting scheme is urgent. Independent and unrelated statistical sources of the national accounts production and expenditure sides have to be avoided. The conventional consolidation and balancing procedure has to be dropped, in favor of simultaneous double entry accounting, i.e. a new kind of underlying data has to be collected and a new balancing procedure has to be developed. Furthermore, compiling analytical and authentic national accounts for sensitive model applications is not only about pure accounting. It is also about scientific attitude, philosophic, and academic foundation.

References ESA (1995), European System of National Accounts, Eurostat, Luxembourg. Glejser, H. and Schavey, P. (1974), “An analysis of revisions of national accounts data for 40 countries”, The Review of Income and Wealth, Series 20, pp. 317-32. Grim, B.T.J. and Parker, R.P. (1998), “Reliability of the quarterly and annual estimates of GDP and gross domestic income”, Survey of Current Business, December, pp. 12-21. Hansson, K.G. (1996), “Index problems when introducing total screening and on-line reporting in national accounts”, Arbetspapper nr 5 (in Swedish with English Summary), November 1996, National Institute of Economic Research, Stockholm. Hansson, K.G. (2002), “Reconciliation of quarterly and annual QNA”, paper presented at the 27th General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, available at: www.iariw.org (accessed March 2005). Hicks, J.R. (1995), Value and Capital. An Inquiry into Some Fundamental Principles of Economic Theory, Clarendon Press, Oxford. Kuznets, S. (1946), “National income”, Readings in the Theory of Income Distribution, The Blackstone Company, Chicago, IL, pp. 3-43. Kuznets, S. (1948), “Discussion of the new department of commerce income series national income: a new version”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 30 No. 3, pp. 151-97. Malinvaud, E. (1995), “Economic theory and advances in national accounting”, Courier des Statistisques (English series), No. 1, pp. 5-13.

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Morgenstern, O. (1950), On the Accuracy of Economic Observations, 1st ed., Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Ohlsson, M. and Andersson, K. (1998), Employment Effects when Stimulating Labour Insentive Service Industries (En ekonomisk analys. Vilka sysselsa¨ttningseffekter kan en stimulering av arbetsintensiva omra˚den inom tja¨nstesektorn ge), Economic Depertment, Stockholm University, Stockholm (in Swedish). O¨ller, L.E. and Hansson, K.G. (2004), “Revisions of Swedish national accounts 1980-1998”, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis OECD, Vol. 1 No. 3. Pigou, A.C. (1962), The Economics of Welfare, Macmillan & Co. Ltd, London. Pyatt, G. (1991), “SAMs, the SNA and national accounting capabilities”, Review of Income and Wealth, Vol. 37 No. 2, reprinted in UN Handbook in National Accounts, United Nations, 2000, Blackwell, Oxford, London. SNA (1953), A System of National Accounts and Supporting Tables, United Nations, New York, NY. SNA (1968), A System of National Accounts, United Nations, New York, NY. SNA (1993), A System of National Accounts 1993, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Stone, R. (1984), “Balancing the national accounts: the adjustment of initial estimates – a neglected stage in measurement”, in Hingman, A. and Ulph, A. (Eds), Demand, Equilibrium and Trade: Essays in Honour of Ivor F. Pearce, Macmillan, London, pp. 191-212. ˚ . (1992), “Tillfo¨rlitligheten i de svenska kvartalsvisa nationalra¨kenskaperna”, Tengblad, A Arbetspapper nr 2, April 1992, Konjunkturinstitutet (summary in English). York, R. and Atkinson, P. (1997), “The reliability of quarterly national accounts in seven major countries: a user’s perspective”, Economic Department Working Paper, No. 171, OECD, Paris. About the author Since 1989, Karl-Gustav Hansson is a Senior Statistician at Statistics Sweden, and he is mainly working with analyzing national accounting and developing price indices. For the moment he is working on a revision study about the GDP’s production side. Together with Lars-Erik O¨ller he has published the paper “Revisions of National Accounts: Swedish Expenditure Accounts and GDP”, Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, Volume 1, No. 3, 2004. His areas of interests are National Accounts, Price Indices, and Economics.

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Identity: the paradoxical nature of organizational closure

Identity

Luc Hoebeke Hoebeke, Staes & Partners, Bierbeek, Belgium

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Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to clarify the concept of organizational closure as developed by Stafford Beer in his viable systems model, defined as System 5. Design/methodology/approach – The author refers to his experiences of multi-stakeholder platforms and confronts them with the original texts of Stafford Beer. He takes the stance of a reflective practitioner. Findings – The identity function, defined as organizational closure, only can be embodied at the boundary of a system, defined by an observer. Identities are not essential characteristics but changing attributions by different observers. Multiple identities are the norm. Practical implications – The author develops the required characteristics of representatives participating in the organizational closure or System 5 activities. Originality/value – The author gives an alternative way of thinking about identity different from the mainstream essentialist way of defining identity. He explores the consequences of this way of thinking for governance and governing bodies. He clarifies in this way the fundamental tension between participative and representative democracy. Keywords Cybernetics, Organizational analysis, Systems analysis Paper type Conceptual paper

Introduction This is the third time I have tried to clarify the concept of organizational closure or organizational identity as developed by the late Beer (1979, 1981, 1985) in his various works about the viable systems model (VSM). Although I got acquainted with the work of Stafford some 30 years ago, and although I have applied the VSM-concepts since that time with varied success, I always got into difficulties trying to discover embodiments of one of the key-concepts of the model: that of organizational closure or identity. I use the term embodiment to refer to processes going on between “real” persons. For me, the VSM is an abstraction only relevant for “real” living systems. And in a social context, people are the major living system to observe. Abstractions, as organizational structures and management systems, do not lead to a useful application of the VSM. Abstractions are not viable when they are not directly linked to the living persons expressing them. As the next quotation of Beer (1981) himself shows the difficulty in discovering embodiments of what Stafford calls System 5 or organizational closure is inherent in the concept itself: I am anxious to show that the language here developed (about organizational closure) applies to any given situation. We may use that language, and exercise this model, regardless of the alleged purposes of the viable system, and regardless of the culture in which it operates. . . Salvador Allende, the Compan˜ero Presidente, was a physician by training. Therefore, I used the neurophysiological version of this model in expounding it to him. In this version, System Five is the cortex of the brain. Having explained how Systems One, Two, Three and Four are

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entailed by the criterion of viability, I drew System Five. Taking a histrionic breath, I wrote in “5”. Before I could explain that this was he – namely “the boss” – he leaned back and laughed. “At last!” he cried: “El pueblo”. As I said, the understanding of System Five is difficult, and its nature is mysterious. Its role is not mysterious at all. That role is closure. (Italics by Beer, 1981.)

I assume that the reader of this paper knows about the VSM and about the various systems that Stafford mentions in the previous quotation. Based on the definition of closure that Stafford gives: closure is the talisman of identity (Beer, 1979) in my practice I have labelled System 5, the identity function, which refers to a function, a process, not a “thing”. “I mean a self-referential process, and not the isolation of the system within an adiabatic shell”. I refer to Stafford’s basic texts because, in my opinion, in the secondary literature on the VSM, System 5 is mostly defined as the “policy making body” of an organization. This causes me difficulties, because of the recursive nature of the VSM. Stafford himself refers to senior management, when writing about the Systems in the management unit (3) in relation to the Systems 1 of the model. This does not help to avoid the classical error in the application of the VSM in organizations of identifying hierarchical levels with recursion levels. The operational function (System 3), the intelligence function (System 4) and the “identity” function (System 5) are also essentially recursive and thus are embodied in one or another way on all recursion levels. It is not sensible to refer to “policy”-makers referring to a couple running a small shop or in an orchestra performing the nth time a symphony of Beethoven. About two years ago, having had some experiences with multi-stakeholder platforms and conferences by means of Team Syntegrity like settings (Beer, 1994), the System 5 concept became much more clear to me. I saw the emergence of new living work systems coming out of settings in which people embodying the operational function, my wording of System 3, and the intelligence function, my wording of System 4, started to deal constructively with the basic conflict they entail. In these settings people able to modulate and to facilitate this conflict were apt to motivate others to involve themselves in what I call social innovation, i.e. novel ways to create enduring social systems coping with the tension of System 3 (operational function) and System 4 (intelligence function). When I was invited to a Metaphorum meeting at Sunderland University, UK. I met Paul Stokes, Professor of Sociology at the University of Dublin, Ireland. This encounter helped me to try to conceptualise more strongly my own experiences. The Cybcon congress at the London School of Economics, UK helped me to write a first draft of this paper. The cogent remarks of Angela Espinosa led me to rewrite it in this form. In the next section I have tried to elucidate the fundamental paradoxical nature of System 5, organizational closure or identity function in living systems. It is clear that I define social systems as living systems. But this under one limiting condition: social systems are for me systems of people relating to one another in joint activities and endeavours which are embedded in common meaning creating processes. When I write, “relating to one another”, I exclude anonymous relations, which in my opinion belong to the class of abstractions. Organizations or departments do not relate to one another, they do not shake hands! As I wrote earlier, abstractions do not lend themselves to a relevant use of the VSM. For this reason, since the 1990s, I used the term work systems (5) to name this kind of social systems. This means that a nation, or a multi-national

corporation? Or whatever social classification defines aggregates and not systems. Viability is systemic, aggregates are by definition a-systemic. A sum is no system, and Aristotelian classifications are abstractions. This is where the concept of recursion becomes primordial. Even if we would have a “world government”, it would consist of one or various related work systems and a limited number of people which are involved in doing something with their concept of what the world “is”. In no way are they involved in governing the real world, cq. for boards of big organizations and agencies. Aggregates are by definition ungovernable (Hoebeke, 1999), only work systems are viable and auto-regulated. In the third section I elaborate on the difficult boundary role of any representative function, and the ensueing difficulties organizations and institutions are struggling with. I argue that the role of representative platforms is the best possible embodiment of System 5. The good functioning of these platforms may help us against the dire warning of Maturana and Varela (1980): The spontaneous course of historical transformation of a human society as a unity is towards totalitarianism . . . any other course requires an ethical choice; it would not be spontaneous, it would be a work of art, a product of human aesthetic design.

In a fourth section I draw some conclusions out of the previous ones, clarifying through means of what we discovered of System 5, the basic tension between participative and representative democracy. Organizational closure as a boundary: the paradox of closure Living systems may be looked at as systems in a temporary dynamic equilibrium between centrifugal and centripetal forces (Atlan, 1979). Either the system implodes or explodes when the balance is disturbed beyond its homeostatic equilibria. It is thus evident that these contradictory forces are represented in the VSM. The intrinsic tension between the regulatory function (System 2) and the audit function (System 3 *) is one example of it. It is the central axis of the management units which enables the system to function between its homeostatic boundaries in spite of the contradictory signals coming from both aforementioned systems (Hoebeke, 1994). The analogy with the sympathic and the para-sympathic nervous system has been illustrated in the Brain of the Firm (Beer, 1981). The tension which interests us here and requires the logical presence of a System 5, or of an organizational closure, is the tension between System 3, the centripetal directed processes and the System 4, the centrifugal directed processes taking place in the management unit. In the words of the VSM, System 3 is focused on the here and now, while System 4 is focused on the there and then. Where do the System 3 processes meet the System 4 processes? Logically, there is only one place where they can meet, at the system boundary. At first sight, when we identify organizational closure with the identity function, this logic confronts us with a paradox. In western thinking and surely since the enlightment, there has been a strong overlapping of the concepts of the identity of a system and its essence. Identity is equated with a kernel, a nucleus. I think that this error causes difficulties in understanding the function of System 5. The fact that Stafford in his Brain of the Firm identifies System 5 with the cortex increases the misunderstanding. The cortex as part of the brain is nearly completely shielded off

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from the environment. It is easy to see it as the innermost sanctum of the living system. But, let us try through some examples to explore what the locus of the organizational closure is when chosen at the boundary of the system. All our cells, with exception of our red blood cells, which have none, have the same nucleus. Each one contains the same genetic material. What is it then that differentiates the cells between themselves to an observer? What gives its own identity to each cell? Clearly, the cell-boundary. Its function is determined by the way it assimilates and it separates for its own autopoiesis the “disturbances” impinging on this boundary. In complex living systems these disturbances may come as well from inside the system as from outside. Even physically, the cell-boundary can be seen as an organizational closure. Once, we leave the essentialist stance (there is an inner sanctum of each system which we call identity) and turn towards a phenomenological stance, as Maturana and Varela (1980) did the cell boundary can easily be recognized as the locus of the organizational closure: on the boundary, the “decisions” are taken to define what belongs to the system and what does not belong to it. There is no more clear definition of what identity means than what separates a system from it’s environment. Cells with “strong” identities in the classical western view of identity become cancerous. Their function in the whole disappears. When the locus of organizational closure is put on the boundary of a living system, then identity becomes an essentially contextual characteristic. The cells with the same nucleus take up a different identity in function of the context in which they are operating their autopı¨etic processes. An essentialist approach focuses on the nucleus as the locus for identity, a phenomenological approach focuses on the boundary of a system. A same “essentialist” cell can then take up multiple identities: a liver cell, a neuron, etc. “A unity comes into being when a space is severed into two” (Maturana and Varela, 1980). This starting point of The Organization of the Living, Maturana and Varela (1980) give in a nutshell the paradox with which we are confronted here. In fact, a unity is by definition threefold. The passive tense used by the authors hides the third element of the threesome. Who or what is severing a space into two? A unity consists of a definition of what is inside the system, what is outside the system, and what relates the inside with the outside, the boundary. And the one who defines the boundary, the one who severes the space into two, is the observer who defines the identity of the system. In our western culture, the existence of an autonomous, independent identity as a unity separated from its context is what creates a series of pseudo-identity paradoxes. The disappearance of the observer in the act of defining a unity, decontextualizes this unity. It is the western split between subject and object, between a system and its environment which makes it difficult to understand what identity is: a stand-alone identity is epistemologically impossible! Although it may be interesting to elaborate the epistemological consequences of previous paragraph, I want to illustrate what I mean by the way we human beings embody identity in practice. The most practical way to recognize people, to recognize their identity, is by means of their boundaries: we recognize faces, voices, skins, clothing, even fingerprints; we do not recognize cortexes! (Eventually by bringing them to the surface, they could be used as identification means, as DNA is used already nowadays.) Moreover, once we take seriously the concept of roles, we have no problem embodying different identities anymore. A great actor is able to embody authentically the most diverse characters: the context of the theatre defines which is the relevant

boundary he/she shows us. Also, in our daily lives we have no difficulty playing different roles, at home, at work, etc. We show multiple contextually bound identities. As in the case of the nucleus of the cell, when we talk about our identity, we refer to an invariant characteristic. I think that this invariance is an observers’ (self-observer’s) construct. The verb “is” and the equality sign, this legacy of the Greeks is what generates the concept of an invariant identity: of what is “identical” to itself. This is a quite different approach than identity emerging from the tension between two contradictory forces, the centripetal and the centrifugal one, which as all dynamic equilibria, is shifting in time. The verb “is” becomes “relates” inside with outside, the equality sign becomes “belongs to” its context and is not identical with it. If we extrapolate these findings to social identities, cultural identities, religious identities, national identities, etc. and the way they are used in common language, we discover the trap created by thinking in invariant identities. We equate invariant stereotyping with identity: the stereotyping observer defines what is invariant and fixes the boundaries. But we cannot deny that we experience these identities in reality only in boundary situations: it may be in the Olympics, or it may be in a war zone behind walls or trenches, but national identities become alive when at least two of them are represented in a kind of boundary transaction. A national identity only gets an experiencial meaning when confronted or dealing with another one. Here again, we see the contextual nature of the experience of identities. Dilemmas generated by the allegiance to different identities, family or country, friendship and clan loyalty, etc. are the stuff for dramas and are good examples of how the identity boundaries are dynamically shifting. As a Swedish friend ones jokingly stated: the Swedish farmer became aware of being Swedish when he saw the king’s armed tax collector on his doorstep! This is really pointing to the contextual nature of collective identities. What belongs to me and what belongs to the king is the result of a boundary negotiation! In fact, the African concept of Ubuntu, which claims that an individual identity only makes sense when it is seen in relation to the other ones is a better paradigm for identity than the romantic idea of a completely autonomous individual, whose ultimate aim is self-development. It is quite normal that our western way of “identity”-thinking leads to a preponderant exploitative relation towards the “other”, nature or other people, which only can be seen as a resource for the development of ones own identity. This is our cancerous way of thinking behind our great concept of the free individual. Organizational closure and the role of the representative What are the consequences of a boundary concept of identity when we start to look at institutions and organizations? Can we be a bit more precise in the use of the terms that Stafford used to describe System 5 than senior management, or policy making? In institutions and organizations at each recursion level we discover boundary activities, performed by people who take up a boundary role, i.e. they are linking their organization to its context of other organizations and institutions. It is interesting to notice that a representative may refer to a sales representative as well as to a Member of Parliament. The boundary role is essentially a representative role. If we take seriously the fact that the homeostatic relation between the System 3, the here and now, and the System 4, the there and then, is monitored at the boundary of the work system, we start to understand in a much better way the importance of this representative role

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in organizations and institutions on each recursion level. In fact, the representative role becomes the main embodiment of System 5 processes. Once, I overheard an interesting conversation of two sales representatives in a road restaurant. They were talking about how to “manage” tenders of some potential clients. This is common practice in the building industry, whatever the espoused language of free competition. These two representatives were trying to link in their discussion their perception of the here and now of their businesses, their actual workload and portfolio with the future perspectives of new interesting projects coming up. Each perception was naturally determined by how they saw their respective enterprises. Although they were in fact creating “policies” for their respective enterprises, I do not think that such a strategic conversation would be seen as a System 5 activity by many of the VSM-scholars. Naturally, they were not able to take decisions on the table. Each one of them went back to his organization with a “policy” agenda. But I am sure that this agenda has influenced decision makers in their organization. They seemed to me very good “representatives” in the double meaning of the word. For me they were exemplars of people doing System 5 activities. Let us try to find some systemic invariants stemming from this simple illustration. I leave it to the reader to check these invariants with his own experience working as or working with representatives in their own context. 1. System 5 processes are conversations which explore boundary conditions for those representatives involved in them. They are not formal decision-making processes Decision-making corresponds fundamentally to the processes belonging to System 3, the here and now. Decision-making is action related to allocation of resources. Decision-making is enabled by System 2 monitoring signals, by the understanding conveyed by the System 3 *, the audit channel, by the ongoing relations with the management units at a lower recursion level and by the pull of the System 4 processes in contact with the outside world. Policy-making is quite different in nature from decision-making. The fallacy that decisions have to be implemented comes from this misunderstanding. Decisions are only decisions when implemented, deciding is taking action and not wording intentions. Decision-making belongs to the “inside”, to the “here and now” of the organization, or work system. The wording of intentions is much more a System 4 activity, the place of the imagination. What else can be said of the there and then, of the future and the environment than the images we have of it, than our imaginatory perception. This is what makes the relation between Systems 3 and 4 activities so stressful: the here and now is experienced reality, the there and then is imagination. System 5 is lubricating this fundamental and necessary tension, just because it embodies the boundary between system and environment, from an essentially observer stance. Our two sales representatives, being good lobbyists, go back to their own enterprises and start that lubrication process. In their lobbying they use their knowledge of the here and now and their knowledge of the there and then. This knowledge, shared and developed through a “strategic” conversation is the best source for the two System 3’s and System 4’s to accomodate the tension between them. Clearly, this has to take place at the right recursion level. Stafford himself writes about the danger when System 3 is identified with System 5 and how that leads systems to behave as decerebrated cats (Beer, 1979). Van Clieaf (2004) comes exactly to the same conclusion when he looks at the problems in the USA

and Canada of the short termism in CEO’s and Boards of Directors in big corporations. Through the previous analysis, we can find a reason why this is bound to be so. As long as the Board and the CEO think that they define the identity of their organization by making decisions as if the organization was a stand-alone, a “free” enterprise, corresponding to the ideal of the “free individual”, System 3 becomes preponderant.

Identity

2. Representatives operate by definition in two work systems, they have a double loyalty: the system which they represent and the representative system in which they participate Representatives, by the mere fact that they operate at the boundaries of a system have an impossible dilemma to solve. If they identify themselves too much with their constituency, they are drawn into the system they represent and if they start to become too much involved in the representative system, they loose contact with their constituency. A boundary role is never an easy one. Our two sales representatives have to maintain a delicate balance. When they start, influenced by the good food and the good mood, to commit themselves to one another and to devise schemes, forgetting their own role and position in their respective enterprises, they are bound to find some surprises. Mostly, when things go awry they blame the other party for not keeping their commitments and the trusting relation between them is damaged. On the other side, when each one of them is completely focused on the do’s and do not’s of their respective enterprise, there is no free talk and the strategic conversation is bound to stay infertile. Again, the blame is easily put to the “stubborness” of the other one. Those, who have to facilitate or are involved themselves in “negotiations” between representatives will easily recognize this fundamental dilemma. For example: many times board or management meetings work as a meeting of the representatives of the departments or functions of the participants. Mostly, only this information is shared which does not endanger the feeling of loyalty that relates the manager to his “club”. The mood around the table is one of distrust, even if theoretically the participants belong to the same organization. Representing the “parts”, the participants are not able to belong to the “whole”. The sure symptom is when the various participants in the meeting each want to get out as soon as possible! On the contrary, General Assemblies in not for profit organizations and certain shareholder assemblies, are cosy places to be in. The participants meet once or twice a year and feel important because they are “representative” members of this platform. All difficult issues which belong to the operation of the organization are easily swept under the carpet, because they disturb the cosiness. It is good to feel oneself as belonging to the “whole”; tensions between the “parts” are threatening. We are “collegial” and dissension is a nuisance! In both cases, the representative body is unable to take up it’s boundary position and the organizational closure, or identity is not taken care of. Some surprises are in the air.

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3. System 5 processes can only lead to an accomodation between the various representatives, never to a consensus Let us come back to our two sales representatives. It is clear that they do not have the formal power to make a contract between them, to get to a consensus. The knowledge they have shared and the knowledge they did not share is the raw material of an accomodation process. It is not possible for two work systems with contradictory aims to come to a consensus. This consensus would be unacceptable to their “constituency” which they represent.

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Again, there is a misunderstanding e.g. in business strategy literature, that alignment and consensus internal to the strategizing system is essential to keep a coherent identity. ten Bos (2000) pointed out how a fundamental distrust of the outside world, of the “other” one, pervades this literature. Organizational identity is seen as monolithic. Vision and mission statements mostly are nothing else than gross generalizations (quality, customer orientedness, to be the first one, etc.) which are the fruit of processes looking for a consensus. Multiple identities are excluded. “Policies” are seen as results of compromises between the sometimes contradictory worldviews and objectives of the different stakeholders of the organization. Grey compromises are labelled as win-win situations. It should lead us too far away from our subject to elaborate on the difference in strategic approach that is required when identity, organizational closure and the organizational boundary are taken as the foundation. In any case, the classical Spencerian (wrongly labelled as neo-Darwinian) ideology underlying “competitive” strategies, would be replaced by a much more ecological approach, permitting multiple identities in function of the organizational context. But, above all, making the relation with the organizational context the locus of the dialectics going on between the System 3 (operational) and the System 4 (intelligence) function, is accepting that contradiction is essential when dealing with identities or organizational closure. Nowadays, devising strategies is left nearly entirely to System 4 (intelligence) functions and the implementation of those strategies is left to the System 3 (operational) functions. The internal contradiction is exported into the external world. Nevertheless, some interesting strategic approaches have started to take this perspective into account. Strategic conversations between key-people from the organization and key external stakeholders of the organization lead not to consensus and alignment, but to the discovery of the dilemmatic field in which strategies can be embodied (Hoebeke, 2004). The representatives of the various stakeholder organizations do not come to a consensus, but clarify their mutual contradictions: this is the raw material to balance the various “identities” of the focus organization. Participation and representation: the issue of governance Governance has become a fashionable word nowadays. Although in it’s literal meaning, governance is at the core of cybernetics, the way the concept is used is in my opinion much more related to the concept of identity. Governance is an issue which is related to “big” organizations. Governments are the first institutions that were confronted by the “unmanageability” of what they suppose to “govern”. As I mentioned earlier, aggregates are by definition unmanageable (Hoebeke, 1990). The VSM cannot be applied to a country, or more generally to the results of a territorial classification system. Nevertheless, countries, or regions, or cities, once their boundaries have been defined, start to generate in the people inhabiting them one kind of identification. Each one of us belongs nowadays to several layered territorial constructs and each one of us has entrusted the “governance” of these constructs mostly to a body of representatives, which nominate an “executive” agency. But when we think about identity as the emergent characteristic of the tension between centripetal (System 3) and centrifugal (System 4) forces, the concept of coherence and territorial integrity as the focus of governance becomes problematic. The major focus of governments is the centripetal forces. Their major concern is to define what belongs to the aggregate and what does not. An Indian saying states that war is in

the head of politicians. In fact, the focus on territorial integrity creates frontiers instead of boundaries resulting in a Ministry of Defence, an euphemism for the original name, the Ministry of War. Internal coherence is translated into the Home Office, called the Ministry of the Interior and its main executive arm: the police force. Coherence is defined as conformity and passive harmony. Both need their own resources and we discover the Ministry of Finance and its executive arm, the tax collectors. This is the core of state government. The consequence of privatisation and deregulation ideally would be that state governments and state governance are again reduced to these essentials. Why this is no more than an ideological dream may be clarified by the VSM-model. The separation between public and private is on a grand scale nothing else than the separation between a System 3 characteristic and a System 4 characteristic. The belonging to aspect, the centripetal forces, are delegated to the public domain. The centrifugal forces, the work and business aspect, is delegated to the private domain. The origins of business are to be found in trade and commerce, which is always looking beyond territorial frontiers. Elsewhere, I developed the western institutional reflex to avoid dynamic equilibria and tensions by organizationally separating both sides of unresolvable dilemmas (Ackoff, 1994). The splitting between private and public is now taken for granted, while contradicting the essence of a viable identity. But in cybernetics, self-regulating mechanisms always supersede bad design. The law of requisite variety is stronger than any human made law and classification scheme. On one side this has led us to the proliferation of government in all kinds of trades and business transactions. In western countries, more or less half of the gross national product is related to government-sponsored activities. But also in the private sector, more and more we see the appearance of territories and imperia which cry for governance. As big enterprises are growing through mergers and acquisitions, the question of what belongs to the corporation and what does not belong to it becomes crucial. The corporation becomes a territorial entity, protecting itself and its boundaries and focused on System 3 activities. Entrepreneurial behaviour, which is typical for a System 4 focus disappears from these corporations. Lip service is given to innovation, as also public governments fashionably do, but what the system does is to stifle all kind of innovations, because they are unable to cope with the balance between Systems 3 and 4. For example, most of the worldview of business strategy is using military terms: the outside world (the competition) is seen as a threat to the integrity and the coherence of the corporation. Military terms are abundant. As in the state governments, corporate governments understand the intelligence function only as the “spying” division. Instead of a System 5 characteristic, governance is immediately translated in System 3 terms in both the public and the private domain, where the illusion of the management of aggregates prevails. Big corporations and big government show the same systemic dysfunctions. It is ironic to notice that the origin of the concept of governance in the private sector comes from the same misunderstanding of what the task of public governments is: territorial integrity and internal coherence. All kinds of auditors are taking up the policing in corporations similar to the police force and the Home Office in public government. Dissension and non-conformity to law, rules and regulations are repressed as threatening to the System 3 focus, System 4 activities, which by definition are transgressing boundaries and frontiers are discarded or punished. System 5 converges with System 3: we see the behaviour of a decerebrate cat as Stafford cogently described such systems.

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What can we learn now from the concepts that were developed in the previous section of this paper regarding improvement in governance, in the public as well as in the private domain? (1) Meaningful representative bodies, which are able to embody System 5 activities, do not consist only of Systems 3 and 4 people but also represent the major stakeholders of the system developing its identity. Stakeholder representatives belong by definition to two systems: the System 5 of the system in focus and either the Systems 3 or 4 of a system to which they belong, because it belongs to a higher, a lower or an equal recursion level. Representative bodies consist of representatives of at least 3 recursion levels. In his The Democratic Corporation, Ackoff (1994) gives a good example of how these recursive representative bodies could function in a corporate environment. In federal and confederal states, the function of representative bodies consisting of 3 recursion levels may help to embody the subsidiarity principle and at the same time avoid the splitting of the parts from the whole in separate representative bodies. (2) The representative bodies are not decision-making bodies. The tensions between Systems 3 and 4 of a system in focus have to be resolved through decision-making ultimately in the System 3 of the system. System 5, the representative body, is the container of these tensions and permits in this sense fluctuating boundaries, through the changes in their membership. When talking of participatory democracy compared with representative democracy, the VSM-model helps us to place the first one on a System 3 level and the second one on the System 5 level. The allocation of resources to System 4 activities is the task of System 3 but taken in the context of the ongoing conversations in System 5. (3) I use the term representative bodies in the plural form, to take into account the multiple identities, and roles that systems may express in different relevant contexts. We have to avoid the illusion of a coherent, totally integrated systemic identity. The term organizational closure does not refer to a completely self-sufficient closed system. It is an operational term. In fact, we see this embryonically expressed in public governments through the existence of a number of parliamentary commissions, which unite a subset of the parliament together with experts and other stakeholders relevant for the issue at hand. In corporations, we find the same mechanisms in all kind of task forces. The only way to “integrate” issue-based democratic bodies is not by creating a coordination institution, but by stimulating multiple memberships in different representative bodies. The dilemmas can only be resolved by the people dealing with them and not by splitting the contradiction which it expresses organizationally and psychologically. When the identity function of a certain “function” is embodied by it’s stakeholders, functional blindness is avoided. The “other” functions are represented in the System 5 representative body. The tasks of a ministry of Labour, e.g. is contained by representatives of the other ministries which are relevant to labour issues. In universities, where there is a strong territorial trend in the management of the faculties, the faculty council could also consist of members of faculties which are related to the domain of the given faculty.

(4) As a conclusion, I hope that these proposals may help the reader to discover where already informally in a self-regulating way System 5 activities are taking place and fulfilling the identity roles. We have not to design System 5 for viable systems: if the system is viable the System 5 is in place. We only have to discover it and may then be able to improve its operation.

Identity

References Ackoff, R.L. (1994), The Democratic Corporation, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Atlan, H. (1979), Entre le Cristal et la Fume´e, Seuil, Paris. Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1981), The Brain of the Firm, 2nd ed., Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1985), Diagnosing the System for Organizations, Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1994), Beyond Dispute, Wiley, Chichester. Hoebeke, L. (1990), “Measuring in organizations”, Journal of Applied Systems Analysis, Vol. 117. Hoebeke, L. (1994), Making Work Systems Better, Wiley, Chichester. Hoebeke, L. (1999), “Mateloze maatregelen: de wetteloosheid van de grote aantallen Filosofie in Bedrijf, 1999/4” (“Unmeasurable measures: the lawlessness of the great numbers”). Hoebeke, L. (2004), “Dilemmas and paradoxes in organizing change processes”, in Boonstra, J. (Ed.), Dynamics of Organizational Change and Learning, Wiley, Chichester. Maturana, U. and Varela, F. (1980), Autopoı¨esis and Cognition, Reidel, Dordrecht. ten Bos, R. (2000), Fashion and Untopia in Management Thinking, John Benjamins, Amsterdam. Van Clieaf, M. (2004), “Executive accountability and excessive compensation: a new test for director liability corporate governance”, Advisor, Vol. 12 No. 6.

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Further reading Checkland, P. and Hollwell, S. (1998), Information, Systems and Information Systems, Wiley, Chichester. About the author Luc Hoebeke finished his study as Electronics Engineer and Engineer in the Nuclear Sciences at the Catholic University of Leuven in 1965. From March 1979 to 30 June 1999, he worked as a partner, consultant of IOD (International Institute for Organization and Social Development). Since 1 July 1999, he is a Director of Hoebeke, Staes & Partners. Currently, he is involved in the design and the realization of the postgraduate MBA, management and the new media, at the I þ M Foundation, Faculty of Economics, University of Amsterdam; and of a curriculum in the faculty of letters and philosophy at the University of Leiden. He is a Visiting Professor at the Business School of the University of Cape Town, SA and a Visiting Lecturer at SIOO, the Interfaculty Foundation for Organization Development in the Netherlands; and also involved as a consultant in the design and the facilitation of Large Group Interventions. He has published articles in Dutch, Spanish and Anglo-American journals and a book: Making Work Systems Better with Wiley (1994). These texts are the reflections of his practice as a management and organization consultant in the profit and not for profit sector, in private and public institutions in most European countries. Luc Hoebeke can be contacted at: [email protected] To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail: [email protected] Or visit our web site for further details: www.emeraldinsight.com/reprints

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at www.emeraldinsight.com/0368-492X.htm

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Momentum and control: a dynamic of democracy Allenna Leonard The Complementary Set, Toronto, Canada

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to show how the application of cybernetic principles to governance and democracy shows dangerous gaps in control due to a lack of appreciation of momentum, requisite variety and scale. Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual paper with examples drawn from the news. Beer’s Viable System Model and Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety underpin the arguments. Findings – The workings of our democracies depend on nineteenth century concepts and are easily overwhelmed by lags, distortions and problems that interfere with a level of feedback that would enable effective control. The elective process, the regulatory process, the boundaries between public and private spheres of action and the threat to our common viability share similar difficulties balancing changing circumstances with limitations on the means to address them. Although some of these issues have been noted before, there has been little appreciation of their interconnection and the consequences of a political system whose dynamics counteract its ideals. Research limitations/implications – There is a need for more research into the problems identified here and how they relate for governance to be effective when the pace of events is rapid. A plea is made for sufficient resources to be devoted to the task. Practical implications – These are problems we must solve if our societies are to remain viable. Our knowledge in the systems and cybernetics communities could help – but it must be used and it will not be used effectively until it is more widely known and applied. Originality/value – Most current political analysis deals with the problems discussed in piecemeal fashion if it deals with them at all. Drawing a boundary around the situation that is wide enough to include these interconnected issues is needed for effective corrective measures to be applied. Keywords Governance, Democracy, Communication, Cybernetics Paper type Conceptual paper

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 76-89 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640245

Introduction Cybernetics, or governance, is a means to encourage and channel human behavior for the common good. While there are many definitions of the common good, the most basic concerns viability. Human life on earth will only be viable if our cybernetic endeavors succeed, whether or not they are part of our explicit awareness. It is argued that a more explicit understanding of the basic concepts of cybernetics would improve the likelihood of success. Neither the general public nor most policy-makers understand cybernetics any better than the earliest bridge builders understood gravity or the laws of physics – it was done by trial and error, aided by intuition. A similar position applies with respect to Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety (Ashby, 1956) and other cybernetic invariance. Although there are records of successful trials and some intuitive understanding, results are not consistent. Public initiatives are prone to breakdowns and inefficiencies, especially when there are circular causal relationships, such as those explored by our cybernetic pioneers. It is difficult not to conclude that the capabilities of democracies lag behind the challenge of events when we consider how they work.

As things stand, the issues are urgent. Current environmental exploitation is not sustainable. Invisible threats from chemicals, radiation, and unknown thresholds of other variables are potential time bombs. The likely consequences of global warming could overwhelm societal resources for dealing with disease, shortages, disasters and social disintegration. These social resources are already severely stressed. Failed states, no-go regions within states and terrorism attest to the failure of governance to address grievances and offer hope for a better life. Forces contributing to social and environmental harm have considerable momentum and will be difficult to rein in and control, and there is much current damage to repair. Will it be possible to contain our actions within the thresholds of social and environmental viability? How can global security and human rights be delivered when western democracies, with their superior resources and long-established legitimacy, are struggling to maintain the balance? Governance structures have changed little since their beginnings some 200 years ago. The eighteenth century system of checks and balances is still useful but it is a mechanical device based on a Newtonian concept of the universe. Its heterarchical modality follows the pattern of a rock/paper scissors game (rock breaks scissors, scissors cuts paper, paper covers rock), which functions to keep any one branch of government from taking over. Considerable progress has been made extending voting rights and moving toward equality and stability under the law. But progress is far from universal and governments are slow to develop requisite variety in their regulatory processes. The promise of cybernetics Democracy would seem to be a wonderful expression of cybernetics; after all, feedback is central to the operation of cybernetic models. Elections, public hearings, regulatory comment periods and referenda are obvious feedback mechanisms. Feedback, however, has to be timely to be effective. If there is too much lag the information will arrive too late to be of use. If feedback happens too quickly, small blips may be mistaken for trends and oscillations introduced. And it has to have an appropriate frame. Elections try to answer the question of whether the present administration is doing a good job and should remain in office or whether the opposition would be a better alternative. They stand or fall on an aggregate assessment in which a single issue or a personality factor may carry a disproportionate amount of weight. The frame may be too large or too small. Terms of elected officials usually range from two to six years but initiatives have more variable time scales. Some effects may be realized within months; others have impact decades into the future. Public hearings, comment periods and referenda also suffer from framing constraints. Sometimes only a piece of a broad issue is addressed, and much is left outside the frame. Sometimes the frame is too large and broad changes are made that are disadvantageous to those who do not quite fit the mold. While cybernetics has a strong association with technology, that is not what it is about. After all, Kybernetes means steersmanship, not the technology of rudder and sail. Technology is important but technological expertise is not always matched by wisdom in its application. As Ellul (1976) noted, technology has its own momentum and may not be under the conscious control of any legitimate deliberative body. While technology has provided many tools that support democracy, especially with respect to security, transparency and access to information, it can also mobilized to invade privacy and to serve narrow or short-sighted interests.

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Elective government Representative government depends on the more or less informed consent of the governed expressed by their vote for its legitimacy. But there are problems. The first problem is that voting implies a dominant frame of reference of majority rule and the assumption that there is a cohort of people who know best and can represent our views. The eighteenth and nineteenth centuries set the framework for legislative governance and many of its protocols. While there were always competing interests: the countryside and the city, the sacred and the secular, employers and workers; there was considerable cohesion within groups and a strong geographic or nationalistic frame. It is more difficult to have a truly representative government in the age of identity politics where identities are fragmented and pluralistic while political parties are either “big tents” with multiple sometimes conflicting constituencies or “small tents” covering regional interests or single issues. The examples here refer to the United States and Canada, but apply to other parliaments and presidential systems as well. Voting and political parties Who are these voters? They are individuals but are counted in blocs. Each person is born with some immutable characteristics, absorbs some more in childhood, and becomes who they are through experience; including but by no means limited to education, traditions, work, travel, relationships and responsibilities. These chunk somewhat into political profiles but present an interesting paradox. It is possible to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal, or the reverse and to have strong opinions on everything from A to Z. But a match may not be on offer among a small number of political parties and voters often end up choosing the least bad rather than the best. Yet our variety is measurable – at least in aggregate. Pollsters can predict your vote based on a handful or fewer characteristics. I, as a female United States citizen with a graduate degree, am assumed (correctly as it happens) to vote Democrat. But not all similarly situated women do. A party platform with the small number of issues it covers cannot come close to matching the variety of concerns in a complex society. It cannot have requisite variety, so platforms and campaigns find ways to attenuate it. According to cognitive linguist Lakoff (1996), considerable attenuation occurs because conservatives and liberals have worldviews in which morality is based on differing understandings of family structure. He contends that both relate to morality as it applies to the nation from models of how a family is run with the conservatives following a “strict father” model and the liberals a “nurturant parent” model. Each model has its own priorities and its own internal consistency although neither model looks consistent from the perspective of the other’s worldview. A conservative values moral strength and obedience to authority most highly, while a liberal values nurturance and empathy. The conservative can justify policies that just seem wrong to liberals and vice versa. Lakoff contends that there are many variations within each group but that the generalizations hold. It is possible that compromise is more difficult to achieve if positions are based on assumptions that may be partially hidden from the individuals who hold them. If they are not explicit, it is difficult to judge when it is appropriate to extrapolate from the family to the nation and the world and when it is not. Lakoff’s argument is consistent with the proportion of negative campaigning about how bad the “other” is compared to campaigning on the virtues of your party’s

positions and priorities. This replaces the concept of “voting for” with “voting against”, and may have the peculiar effect of tilting election results toward the preferences and prejudices of the least informed voters. Certainly the ratio of noise to information is high, and made higher by the infusion of large sums of money into political campaigns. This is especially troublesome and troubling when the entities spending the money are not accountable to anyone – as is the case with the privately financed “527” organizations in the USA. In the 2004 US Presidential election, the “Swiftboat Veterans for Truth” spent millions on television advertising distorting John Kerry’s war record but the Bush Campaign was able to disavow any connection. Lakoff’s argument is consistent with the use of marketing in campaigns. Lifestyle, personality and minutia attenuate electoral messages. American candidates must tell their personal stories and wear their religious beliefs on their sleeves. One of the wedge issues in the 2004 election was “morality”. President Bush’s campaign devoted considerable resources to promoting his opposition to indecency and homosexual marriage rather than to arguably more pressing concerns. The tactic spoke to a population made fearful by terrorism and a sense that things were spiraling out of control and appealed to the protective aspects of a conservative mentality. Despite the hoopla and misinformation of campaigns we are all familiar with, established democracies do vote according to legitimate processes – or do they? Hanging chads, poorly designed ballots and electronic voting machines that have no paper trail are all prone to disenfranchising voters who come to cast their ballots. Nor could anyone be proud of the many additional factors that came into play in the 2000 US presidential election in Florida. With many elections decided by swing voters in swing ridings, very close results will occur frequently. Their legitimacy and credibility will not count for much if the margin of error is greater than the margin of victory; still less if this becomes common. In the United States, where the president is elected by the Electoral College rather than directly by popular vote, the winner of the most votes does not necessarily become president. The anachronism persists because doing away with the Electoral College would eliminate some advantages currently enjoyed by small states. Yet, when the winner of the popular vote does not become president (even if the Supreme Court does not become involved in the recount), the legitimacy of what is arguably the most powerful office in the world is undermined. Although members of parliaments such as Canada and the United Kingdom are directly elected, they too yield results that do not distribute seats strictly on the basis of who gets the most votes, but riding by riding. Proportional representation When there are, as in many countries, more than two parties, first-past-the-post elections almost guarantee that the majority of voters will be disenfranchised. One opportunity for cybernetics would be to design and model variations of proportional representation or combination frameworks that were transparent and simple to implement. The argument has often been that they are too complicated but first past the post systems have been shown to be vulnerable too. In British Colombia, a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform has been studying various forms of PR. The Liberal Party in the last BC provincial election took 97 percent of the seats with 58 percent of the vote. The opposition got two seats. In Ontario, the New Democratic Party got 15 percent of the vote in the 2003 election but fell one seat

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short of official party status with its attendant resources. Parliaments become elective dictatorships, however benign, without effective opposition. And, they can be volatile on small margins. In Canada, the last time the national party in power changed, the conservatives dropped from a substantial majority in the previous election to two seats. The “official opposition” (with the next largest number of seats, because their votes are concentrated in a single province) became the Bloc Quebecois, whose mission was independence for Quebec. It is a testimony to the resilience of Canada that this was not a disaster. Direct democracy Proposals for direct democracy are attractive on the surface but are vulnerable to financial and technical problems. Referenda, which are democratic in theory, turn out to be anything but in practice. It is difficult for ordinary citizens to organize and get a sufficient number of signatures to get on the ballot but easy for interest groups, corporations and wealthy individuals to form organizations and hire staff to collect signatures. Nor can ordinary citizens usually afford to purchase television advertising and mailings. This is not to say that items from citizens’ agenda never succeed, but the barriers are high. Timing presents another issue. Voting at the national level happens every four to six years but it usually takes the incoming administration close to a year to get people settled in their jobs. If new legislation moves quickly it either deals with simple issues or simplifies complex issues by haste or by letting the strongest and best-funded lobbyists have their way. Budgets must be compiled yearly to be adaptive but costs and benefits of many decisions operate in different time frames with consequences rippling out over decades. It makes it unpopular to raise taxes today when benefits, although substantial, will not be realized until another administration. As well, governments are tempted to incur obligations when the costs are modest at the beginning but escalate in later years. Communication and its limits Modern – or is it post-modern – thinking looks at constructed realities, minority rights and multi-cultural contexts but has not developed adequate means to realize them in political infrastructure. Second order cybernetics, concerned as it is with the observer and its understanding that objectivity must be bracketed to be valid, could be helpful here but is poorly understood in the public mind. One would never know from listening to public debates that there was any room at all between the certainty of a black and white world and “anything goes” or that there were tools to address complexity. On a practical level, it is almost impossible to see how the collective visions that are possible in a small community can be realized at a national level. It may be achieved in large cities when change comes with a combination of optimism and purposeful leadership. From an outsider’s perspective, London under Ken Livingston seems to be making a good try. Toronto under David Miller has promise but the infrastructure is inadequate. It remains to be seen whether Miller can get the necessary legislative authority and resources to match the city’s responsibilities. It is one thing to achieve a sufficient level of identity and coherence in a bounded geographical area but similar levels of coherence across geography have to compete with other points of view and priorities. Perhaps Jacobs (1985) is right when she contends that the city is the natural

limit for most issues of governance. Cybernetic (and organizational) notions of autonomy allow for decisions to be made as close to the ground as possible where there is the most information available and limit what must be decided at higher levels. Public discourse on the politics of the day does not come close to addressing the number of issues that could have an impact. The expression “under the radar” describes happenings that do not merit media coverage. Small issues do not stand a chance unless they qualify as one-off human-interest stories and large issues like Afghanistan disappear from view. The channel capacity of news media and political campaigns is very small and the number of items people can be concerned about within the pace and stress of their daily lives is quite limited. Media coverage tends toward amplifying the items it selects while attenuating or ignoring others. There are also problems addressing changes outside the usual scale. Complex ideas and changes that occur gradually, regardless of their importance, are given scant attention by most of the mass media. The internet The internet can be effective in accessing an incredible amount of information but neither the accuracy nor the currency of much of it can be verified. As well, its channels are clogged with viruses and spam and can be used to enable cyberspace lynch mobs to attack dissenting voices and any venue that would give them a voice. That it is generally careers rather than lives that are threatened does not diminish the chilling effects of these increasingly well-orchestrated attacks by right wing advocates. However, in the USA, the internet made it possible for Howard Dean, a former governor of the small state of Vermont, to jump to the front of the pack running for the Democratic presidential nomination and raise an unprecedented amount of early money. It did so by a combination of technology and organizing face-to-face meetings in living rooms and coffee shops. Dean stepped out in front challenging President Bush on the war Iraq before it started, on health care (he is a doctor), and the economy. Dean was not supported by the Democratic Party establishment or the early caucus and primary voters who wanted the safest nominee, but he did put pressure on the other candidates to take positions that were distinct from those of the President. Perhaps more importantly, he demonstrated the possibility of the internet to connect an unorganized group of people and give them some political power. Information and regulatory process Rather than being proactive on behalf of the public, much new regulatory effort is spent in catching up. Nuclear reactors, genetic modification of food, overuse of antibiotics and mad cow disease all resulted in the public becoming guinea pigs for technological and biological experiments. All these were facts on the ground with their own momentum before the broader framework was established and regulatory questions posed – never mind answers found. The learning lags for scientists are daunting enough. It is not realistic to expect people in politics, or indeed the public, to learn enough about these topics to make sensible decisions. But, where are the channels for multiple stakeholders to formulate and air their views? A recent G8 meeting was held on an island of the Southern USA where protesters could be kept on shore a 100 miles away. Access to many political decision-makers is often controlled by money. In both Washington and Westminster restricted invitation lists and high admission

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prices for political fundraisers make it very difficult for ordinary citizens to have access to office-holders. Public advocacy groups sometimes succeed in getting media attention, but the messages come through as sound bites. Dialogue, when it occurs is often polarized and may leave people less informed than before. In public debate there seems to be a demand for certainty before action is taken. People schooled in the scientific method are reluctant to speak of certainty but that should not delegitimize their input or invalidate their contributions. Certainty is only possible after the fact. By then potential harm has become history. Not surprisingly, the most effective channel to government is when individuals bring complaints to the surgery or constituent services. But it may take a number of complaints before a pattern emerges and the issue gathers momentum. The viability of systems Perhaps it should surprise us that with greater wealth than ever it has become more difficult to get funding for new public initiatives or foreign assistance. A large proportion of public money is earmarked for entitlement programs or debt service but surely it is not necessary at the same time to stifle the innovation that would lead to better ways of doing things, clearer accountability and risk avoidance. When we think of viable systems in terms of a human body, there is no doubt that all the organs and muscles are part of the same whole. If one part starts to grow to the detriment of others, it is diagnosed as cancer. Except in so-called primitive cultures, there is not the same appreciation of the whole or perception that we are all in this together. The individual is not viable without a nutrient environment providing essential variables of food, shelter, security and companionship. Communities and countries cannot survive without a nutrient environment either. Failed or failing states have been unable to provide those essential variables to their populations. Unless more resources are shared so that all of our city neighborhoods, country regions and nation states are at least viable, humanity as a whole may lapse into another Dark Age or perhaps not survive at all. Viable systems are recursive. They repeat their characteristics like Russian dolls from the smallest to the largest. They are nested within other viable systems and are usually composed of smaller viable systems. The message of “united we stand, divided we fall” predates cybernetics but cybernetics provides another layer of understanding to the message. Tools such as Beer’s Viable System Model can address the complexity of recursive systems and help us to understand and improve them. Livas (2003) has written a book called The Cybernetic State that explores the application of the viable system model to the notion of a state and its economy. Instead disparities in wealth and power are increasing. This is predictable because large systems tend to follow the eighty-twenty rule. This rule of thumb, also sometimes called the law of diminishing returns says that 80 percent of the production goes into 20 percent of the orders; 80 percent of shoes fall into 20 percent of the sizes and so on. There is a natural tendency for small advantages to increase over time, like interest on a bank account, and vice versa. Progressive social policies introduce measures to counteract this tendency and rebalance resources. Provisions to protect small countries and small businesses and social safety nets for families to make sure that no individual or group is denied the essentials for survival are necessary for our common welfare.

The private sector When the public sector falls short, many look to the private sector and the market to provide albeit indirectly for public needs. This is not the business of the private sector. It is a grave error to expect it of them. Corporations are legally constituted to make money for their shareholders and usually weight this limited role toward the short term. The book The Corporation (Bakan, 2004) and the film of the same name recently evaluated the entity called “the corporation” according to the World Health Organization’s ten criteria for mental health. The corporation failed on all ten counts, having been defined to pursue a circumscribed self-interest. From the days of its original charters 150 years ago, the corporation has been a “person” under law but without either the range of perceptions or responsibilities of a human being. Despite having power comparable to what science fiction envisaged for robots, a corporation does not meet the first of Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics: “Robots must never harm human beings or, through inaction, cause a human being to come to harm” (Asimov, 1984). Bakan documented numerous ways in which human beings come to harm through corporate action as employees, customers and investors. The general public may suffer effects of social and political degradation, pollution and damaged health. Often these are third party effects where externalities have an impact on “downwinders” or others who were not part of the transaction. Usually, it is very difficult for those who have been harmed to get redress. Even when individual actions of corporations are not detrimental to the larger society, their collective actions may be. “Tragedy of the commons” behavior occurs when each farmer puts another cow out to graze on the common land until it is depleted. If it is to every player’s advantage to take advantage of a loophole or ignore a problem until the negative effects are widespread it will be tempting to do so. In these circumstances it is difficult to assign blame to any individual operation; everyone is responsible, so no one is culpable. Even where the damage was severe and responsibility unquestioned as with the disaster at Bhopal, people may wait many years for compensation if they receive it at all. But the sanctions against corporations that behave badly are not the same as sanctions for human beings. At worst, corporations go bankrupt which only means that creditors are paid back a portion and the whole enterprise is reborn as before. One may wonder why countries such as the USA, which impose the death penalty on people, do not have a death penalty for corporations that inflict lethal harm. My colleague Colville (2004) has suggested that if this were so, investors could purchase corporate life insurance to protect them against that eventuality. It is interesting that individuals require a passport, and sometimes a visa to travel, but this does not apply to enterprises. If there was the political will, corporate passports could be used to assure that acts that were illegal at home would not be performed with impunity abroad. Probably no one had any inkling a 150 years ago of how many third parties could be affected or the extent of potential consequences. Corporations have little accountability to the public except to keep books that “fairly present” their circumstances while refraining from illegal acts. Far from being open to talking, some corporations concentrate on reducing communications channels through a wall of public relations, aggressive use of libel action and fencing off information through unintended uses of patent and copyright law. Some want to privatize not only nature and our intellectual commons but also our common speech. Donald Trump’s effort to copyright the phrase “You’re fired” is the latest egregious

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example. But rogue elements are not necessary to bring about a bad situation. Harm to the public involves not only acts of commission, like pollution, but acts of omission like lack of planning. The legislative lag Legislation operates in a piecemeal fashion. It must be one-size-fits all and it is almost impossible for it to have requisite variety. Although it would be possible to design contextually based regulations, it is difficult to do with a reductionist toolkit – just look at tax law. In legal language there is little room for context or place for the differences in perspectives of different observers. In fact, the response to greater complexity seems to be simpler, if not more simplistic rules. It was probably easier to air differences in the past when there was more time for debate and not as much to decide. With fewer issues and a lesser role for lobbyists, public input could be proportionately more extensive. Even so, the best that was usually achieved was compromise. Nor are courts well suited to reintroducing complexity. They are tasked with responding as narrowly as possible to the issues. By the time a case goes through the full appeals process to the highest court, years will have gone by and circumstances may have already outstripped the arguments. Much is made of the slowness of legislative and judicial changes. These may become gridlocked. Originally delays were built in to curb high passions, to give people more opportunity to become informed when communications were slower and to give them time to adjust to changes. But scheduling can be manipulated. Delays may be introduced or extended by lengthy appeals processes and other legal maneuvers for reasons that do not serve those most in need of justice. It is not uncommon for legislation to resemble an old country house with additions from every period. In the USA, for example, the Communications Act of 1934, as amended, was not massively altered until the Telecom Act of 1996. Even then it was an amendment. The idea of governing the internet, telecomm and cable and satellite services and protecting the privacy of users under principles developed for radio and telegraph would be laughable did it not fall so short of requisite variety and so fail the citizenry. And yet bizarrely, things may happen too quickly. Members of the US Congress have admitted that they did not have time to read, never mind study, the Patriot Act of 2001 before it was passed. The post World Trade Center sense of emergency made their fulfillment of legislative review responsibilities impossible. In non-emergency situations, public relations in an era of instant communications and the internet can sow confusion and derail public opposition before it can coalesce. At other times, lobbyists do their best to assure that issues are decided before they become public knowledge. Contracts may be signed or cancelled before all of the interested parties even know something is happening. It is difficult for measures taken on behalf of the general public to gain sufficient momentum to succeed. Opportunities must be seized or they are gone forever. On the other hand, it is much easier to destroy than to build. Even a short funding gap of a year or two is enough to destroy the continuity of long term research in many fields. The cost cutting in meteorology and climate change research occurring now could hardly be more self-destructive for humanity. Funding gaps destroy the creative critical mass that exists in laboratories, or, for that matter, dance companies.

The individuals that make them work are on short-term contracts and live from paycheque to paycheque. Even if funding is resumed, they cannot pick up where they left off. Some problems fall within regulatory boundaries but the regulations themselves are too loose or too poorly enforced to be effective. In the energy industry, self-reporting and patchwork regulatory authority did not reveal decades of Unical oil spills and environmental damage off the California coast. Authorities finally found out when someone blew the whistle. Sometimes the boundaries are not clear. One of the reasons behind the decline in the electric utility infrastructure is that it was impossible to decide whether state or federal regulations applied to the interstate regulation of transmission lines. The vulnerability of those lines was underscored in the 2003 summer blackouts that affected fifty million people in the northeastern United States and parts of Canada. Red flags had been waving for years. Although these regulatory problems are blatant, cybernetic tools can discover other anomalies before they become crises. In the systems field it is accepted that things do not look the same to different observers and that small events can have large consequences. Disturbed systems can reverberate over decades if not centuries and their reverberations can revive and escalate conflicts that had been believed long forgotten. This makes it difficult to see the patterns clearly. Many people probably realize this but do not know there are tools available to help. Beer’s models use and extend Ashby’s discoveries about variety to provide a means of understanding and comparing organizational structures and communications. In Heart of Enterprise (Beer, 1979) four principles of organization dealing with variety are set out as initial requirements. They are: Managerial, operational and environmental variety tend to equate throughout the system. The communications channels carrying information between these areas must have a higher variety to transmit than the subsystems have to produce variety. The variety of the transducer operating on a boundary between systems must be at least equivalent to the variety of the channel. The fourth principle of organization says that the operation of the first three principles must be cyclically maintained through time without hiatus or lags.

These principles are not present in any government. In specific areas, however, it should be possible to address this lack through the use of real-time monitoring of established key indices. They detect problems or incipient instability by evaluating behavior through the use of statistical filters. This was the thrust of Beer’s (1981) work in Chile and the technology has improved greatly since the early 1970s. It is not necessary to use systems thinking or models in great detail to obtain benefit. Informal systems thinking can pose questions and discover insights. In the VSM, one of the first steps is to look at how to distinguish the System one or productive units. The distinctions chosen depend on the purposes of the different observers but must be consistent and coherent. To take one of many possible configurations, one might say that the system one units in the global system were business, government, civil society, religion, the knowledge and/or creative society, and personal life. From this perspective, each sector’s needs must be integrated with those of the others. If they are not balanced, pathologies and anomalies will occur. This approach bypasses

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traditional distinctions like public vs private or right vs left and is more helpful than ideology. Infrastructure is one area that is ill served by the binary distinction. In the range between fully public and completely private there are various levels of regulation, competition and subsidy. Energy and transportation are two areas where public and private meet. If electricity transmission lines are operated by competing private interests with high demands for return on investment and minimal regulation, it is predictable that maintenance will be short changed and blackouts will occur. In the transportation industries, a systemic view would not have yielded such an imbalance between road and rail subsidies. It seems that if binary logic fails, the next step should be to use a multi-valued logic. But pretzel logic seems to be the default and leads to situations where the tail is wagging the dog. In the United States, in 2005, the Supreme Court is to hear a challenge to the right of municipalities to use eminent domain to force people to sell private property to the government so it can be resold for other private uses that would yield higher property taxes. This is a novel use of a legal mechanism that has traditionally been applied when clearance was needed to build a road or a public building. To be sure, municipalities are pressed for funds. But how long will it take to realize that property tax no longer has requisite variety to meet municipal needs? It should be seen as being as outmoded as the window taxes or frontage taxes on buildings in past centuries. International scope Most of the situations so far discussed take place within national boundaries. When boundaries are crossed, transduction if not translation issues arise, lags get longer and more interests are at stake. International agreements, like Kyoto, take years to negotiate and may or may not be fully implemented, although to proceed with the status quo amounts to slow global suicide. Moreover, there is no effective international metasystem. The United Nations is as close as it gets, but is hampered by a linear and reductionist infrastructure. The World Health Organization, UNICEF and the International Labor Organization do good work, but are organized in silos. Many NGOs do good work too, but they inevitably must focus their resources narrowly to have an impact. Both are frequently so resource-poor that they must proceed slowly as funds become available. The USA, as the sole superpower, has military superiority but not unlimited funds, and is primarily focused on its own security and domestic interests. Afghanistan and the Middle East are prime examples of places where earlier interventions were not followed up with enough assistance to leave healthy states behind. Who would want to bet that these areas would be stable and responsive to the needs of their citizens when the USA departs after the current interventions? Internationally, one size fits all less well less well than domestically and falls further short of requisite variety. International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the WTO trade agreements are rightly criticized as being agreements that push small players to the sidelines, whether they are small countries or small companies. Although their aim is stability, the result may be the opposite. Outside the law Crime and corruption have become easier with enhanced communication and ease of travel. The low risk that off balance sheet transactions will be detected serves criminal

and covert operations well. With turf wars among law enforcement agencies and gaps in local, never mind international cooperation and cohesion, it is easy for organizations to operate outside the law. Criminal elements may also collaborate with fundamentalist or political insurgents. Such activities can be carried on more easily undercover in cyberspace or within the boundaries of weak or failed states that lack the capacity to observe or control them. Current means to address social pathology are, as in medical care, tilted toward treatment rather than prevention. It is almost seen as condoning pathologies when an attempt is made to point out that they are a predictable result of the way things work now and to suggest rethinking our actions. Instead, new terrorism laws are applied to the old problem of youth gangs whose troubles come from too little connection to events outside their immediate environments rather than too much, thus blurring meaningful distinctions. Looking for balance and responsiveness How can cybernetics and systems help enable government and politics to act for the common good? One improvement comes from the promotion of transparency, which is surely a prerequisite for regulation and accountability. Even in undemocratic countries, if their actions are visible, governments often prefer to be seen to be behaving well. So do organizations. It has taken some pressure but corporations have been becoming more responsive to concerns about social and environmental degradation where their products are sourced. Increasing transparency also has an effect on individuals playing roles within governments and organizations as they prefer to be proud of what they do. Cybernetic models can contribute here by designing effective feedback loops and making sure they have sufficient channel capacity. But this still falls short of the balance that is achieved by homeostasis. In the human body, homeostasis involves many minor adjustments that seldom intrude into consciousness. In a social body, power considerations or other distortions can override the feedback that might maintain balance. Sometimes the balance is complex and maybe unconscious. One of the stories in Decision and Control (Beer, 1966) was about an operational research study conducted in Denmark among ship captains to discover what situations they found dangerous in the channel between Sweden and Denmark. As it turned out, they could not say but an important factor was detected later when the researchers listened to the audiotape of the meeting. Everyone knew what to do when there were two ships in motion but the group became audibly uneasy when three or more ships entered the picture. This has its counterpart in international conflict situations where there are more than two players or there are interventions by outside players. Often these involve a group that is by far more powerful within a national boundary, but is a minority in the region. All parties legitimately feel threatened and none feel very comfortable making concessions. But, unless the dialogue brings together all the parties, inside or outside national boundaries, solutions will be elusive. Syntegration (Beer, 1994) and other heterarchical group processes have been developed and found to be successful when they are applied. But, using such processes implies being open to the full range of different perspectives and their validity. In international negotiations and legal maneuvering, one of the first tactics is to limit the number of perspectives that have standing. That reflects a much different attitude than the inclusive approach characteristic of group processes.

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Conclusion The circumstances are serious and current institutions and infrastructures do not have requisite variety to describe or deal with them. Those in the systems and cybernetics community are aware of the problems and have some solutions. But not much can be done until a critical mass of people concur. This is difficult because among the constraints identified are the limits of channel capacity for public discourse and decision-making. Tools exist including models and group processes but are not widely employed. They could and should be developed and applied further. But this will be difficult without massive resources. Gatherings during the Second World War, the Macy Conferences, and the Biological Computer Laboratory at the University of Illinois all produced significant advances – some of which still wait to be applied on a meaningful scale. While there are many millions to support think tanks following reductionist approaches, there are few sources of support for systems approaches. Most of those few sources are located in universities but they are vulnerable. In the USA, systems departments have been reduced or eliminated when key people retire and others competing for the same scarce resources prevail. In the private sector, some consultancies and corporations use systems models but their work does not usually find its way into the public domain. Unless financial backing can be found to support people working in systems, governments will be at unnecessary risk from our lack of control over events and their momentum. Considerable though still insufficient progress has been made in understanding and acting to protect the natural environment. Government agencies and environmental advocacy groups are now on board. Similar efforts in the social environment lag far behind. Moreover, these lags are already impeding the effectiveness and scope of environmental protection. The derisive connotations of social engineering must be put aside. Social engineering is happening anyway, but without transparency, perhaps even to the people involved, and without the broad input of all affected parties. Humankind has gathered considerable momentum and is clearly heading towards the edge. How close the brink is and how deep the drop will not be known until it is happening. Somehow, control has to be reestablished before we go over that cliff. So here are some questions: . How can we rise to the challenges posed by the lag between our momentum and our control over our affairs? . How do we avoid a result that no one desires? . Can we devise a route that can be accepted as recognizably effective? . Can this be implemented through the will of the people? . What happens if we do nothing? References Ashby, W.R. (1956), An Introduction to Cybernetics, Chapman and Hall, London. Asimov, I. (1984), I Robot, Ballentine, New York, NY. Bakan, J. (2004), The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power, Free Press, New York, NY. Beer, S. (1966), Decision and Control, Wiley, Chichester, pp. 534-6. Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, Chichester, pp. 565-7.

Beer, S. (1981), Brain of the Firm, 2nd ed., Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1994), Beyond Dispute: The Invention of Team Syntegrity, Wiley, Chichester. Colville, P. (2004), private communication, Toronto, Canada, February. Ellul, J. (1976), The Technological Society, Alfred A. Knopf, New York, NY, Trans. J. Wilkenson. Jacobs, J. (1985), Cities and the Wealth of Nations, Viking Penguin, New York, NY. Lakoff, G. (1996), Moral Politics: How Liberals and Conservatives Think, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL. Livas, J. (2003), The Cybernetic State, Senate: Federal Republic of Mexico, Mexico City. About the author Allenna Leonard earned her PhD from the University of Maryland, with a dissertation on broadcast regulation. She is an independent consultant, facilitator and sometime adjunct professor based in Toronto. Her practice has been focused on the work of Stafford Beer and his Viable System Model and Team Syntegrity process. She has recently been working on projects to improve audit and other accountability practices. Her work applying this to governance is an extension of that interest. She served as President of the American Society for Cybernetics from 2002 to 2005. Allenna Leonard can be contacted at: [email protected]

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Andrey Sergeyev and Alfredo Moscardini Cybernetics and System Thinking Centre, University of Sunderland, Sunderland, UK Abstract Purpose – Ukraine has had to change in ten years from a strong centrally controlled communist economy to a market economy. It has not been successful. The purpose of this paper is to explain this failure from the complexity management point of view. Design/methodology/approach – This paper takes a cybernetic view of the attempts at Governance in Ukraine over its transition period. To diagnose the problem a novel approach based on the Viable Systems Methodology of Stafford Beer is used. Findings – Serious structural flaws are identified in the organisation of governance at the national level and it is shown how these inadequacies induced the formation of mutant abnormal strategies at the level of economic agents. Practical implications – Presents credible explanations of phenomena such as barter, corruption, growth of overdue debts and the existence of incentives (other than profit maximizing ones) which drive the behaviour of firms. Originality/value – There are many explanations of the same phenomena in contemporary economic literature but our explanations are based purely on an analysis of the complexity management tasks performed at each level of recursion: from a government to a firm. Moreover, the paper shows that the structural specificity of a system shapes the behavioural patterns of each systemic element, would it be a government body or a firm’s management. Therefore, the notion of structural determinism allows one to state that structure defines the dynamics of any systemic change. Keywords Ukraine, Cybernetics, Economics, Market economy Paper type Case study

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 90-107 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640254

Introduction Over the last decade, there have been multiple interpretations and hypotheses about the nature of the processes that take place in transition economies. Ukraine began its transition in 1990 as one of the biggest and most economically successful Soviet Republics but there are several features of the Ukrainian performance which distinguish it from transitions in other Central European countries (such as the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary). Some of these features are: . Ukraine experienced a more severe level of hyperinflation during the first years of independence than the others. . There was a considerable decline of output, which lasted longer than in any other transition economy and lasted about ten years. GDP in 1997 was estimated to stand at 30 per cent of the 1990 level.

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Since 1993, a leap of barter transactions in sales was recorded. Within three years this type of non-monetary transaction reached almost 50 per cent of total industrial sales. An immense growth of inter-firm arrears started in 1994. By 1998, overall debts between enterprises exceeded GDP. In August 2000, debts came to 272b Hrv., which was twice the GDP of 1999. Overdue debts were 90 per cent of GDP (Shygayeva, 2001). At the same time, a considerable growth of unprofitable enterprises was recorded.

These figures are strikingly different from other transition economies and indicate the existence of structural systemic transformations, which differentiate Ukraine from the rest of the European countries. In this paper, we follow a critical realist approach, which posits the idea of a stratified reality and differentiates between the generative mechanisms (that lay behind any observed phenomena) and the actual observations (Bhaskar, 1975, 1978, 1989). We thus reject the positivist belief of causality as a constant conjunction of events. Social evolutionary adaptations (that are needed to compensate for the misbalances between external and internal complexity) are brought about by the system’s inclination to conserve its identity. This conservation of identity is a primary feature of autopoietic systems and thus we consider social systems to possess the characteristics of autopoietic systems. However, conservation of identity does not guarantee a permanent state. Under certain circumstances, systems can undergo a change of class identity or sometimes even disintegrate. We show that during the Ukrainian transition, many processes took place such as conservation, pathological conservation, change of identity and disintegration. The idea of the inevitability of such adaptive transformations enabled us to show that abnormal, from a traditional economics point of view, phenomena such as barter, arrears, corruption are effective solutions (from the system’s point of view) which increase systemic internal stability and provide mechanisms for effective complexity management. For example, arrears appear as a survival strategy which allows “Production Chains” to conserve their autopoietic functions. Using Beer’s terminology, this is called “the pathological conservation of autopoiesis”. Corruption is shown to be an effective substitute for an underdeveloped institutional infrastructure that not only supplements many behavioural norms but also dislodges them from the agenda of economic processes. Barter effectively replaced an inefficient banking system in order to counteract the erosion of material resources under the pressure of hyperinflation, fixing and consolidating its prevalence after hyperinflation was depressed. These examples confirm our hypothesis regarding the autopoietic nature of social systems. Thus, the observed phenomena can be explained by demonstrating a path dependent progression for the whole system. If the theory of autopoiesis serves as a scientific substantiation of the inevitability of the “bio-logic” of social structural transformations, then the viable system model (VSM) is the appropriate tool to operationalise our explanation of such transformations. To do this, we show how Ukraine as a system “Nation” can be presented as a set of recursively nested viable systems. By intervening in the different levels of recursion, we investigate how viable systems conserve their initial identity by performing complexity management tasks.

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Initial conditions We start our investigation from 1991, when Ukraine was governed from Moscow by the Soviet central command system. Wiles (1977) gives the following description of the state: The corporation is identified with the state. Its Board of Directors is the Politbureau. Its treasurer is the Minister of Finance. The profits of its branches, rather misleadingly called enterprises, go automatically to this Minister being decentrally retained by grace and favour only. There is not even any distinction between managers and civil servants. There is only one career structure with total transferability of pension rights, seniority, etc. The command system can be viewed as a large corporation where a central planner (the management of that system) allocates resources between its “subsidiaries”. The corporation owns a large stock of natural resources, has no outside shareholders (so that all “profits” can be kept for investments) and hires labour. Transactions between enterprises are merely transfer prices between “divisions” – the exceptions are purchase of labour and engagement in foreign trade.

The aim of such a corporation was to satisfy government consumption (primarily defence), subject to the constraint that labour is supplied in proper quantities. In order to obtain sufficient labour the corporation must produce consumer goods, educate personnel, and keep it in good health. Accordingly, a model of the state governance is shown in Figure 1 as a recursive structure. The system “Nation” is represented as a set of interrelated systems, which produce different aspects of Ukraine as a nation. In the presented analysis we deal with explanations of economic phenomena, therefore, the system – in – focus is “Material Production”. The system “Material Production”[1] is a viable system, which is concerned with any activity, whereby goods and services are produced. Its purpose is to organise and use human and natural resources to satisfy the specific needs of the Nation. At the time of Ukrainian independence, “Material Production” depended on a fundamental trait of a command system – the asset specificity[2] of the production pattern. This tendency of the “central planner” to optimise resource allocation led to massive attempts to introduce economies of scale, which led to a situation known as “small-numbers exchange”[3]. The absence of competition stimulated the establishment of relatively stable technological chains without deep horizontal diversification. These vertically integrated groupings[4] we call “Production Chains” and are taken to be the system ones of the system “Material production”. Consequently, “Production Units” are taken as the system ones of the system “Production Chains”. The purpose of “Production Units” in the command economy is defined as: . . .to be sufficiently efficient to fulfil the imposed plans of resource utilisation and maintain the processes demanded by the Production Chains.

Based on this recursive structure, the transition is analysed in three stages, which we call disorganisation, bad governance and the virtual economy. The first stage – disorganisation Under central planning, the efficiency of variety management was greatly affected by the factors shown in Figure 2: . Over-regulation and restrictions within the whole society considerably reduced the complexity of environmental variety.

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Figure 1. The recursive structure of the system “nation”

Figure 2. Complexity management under central planning

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The softening of financial discipline was a compensation for the restrictions of the autonomy of the managerial activity of system ones. Five-year plans were high-variety amplifiers used by the system ones to carry out their operations.

We regard any economic reform as a variety management problem. Reforms are successful if they strengthen the homeostatic balance within any pair of varieties introducing new effective institutional amplifiers and attenuators. Such social reconstructions should not disobey the fourth principle of organisation: The operation of the first three principles must be cyclically maintained through time without hiatus and lags (Beer, 1979).

In Ukraine the economic reforms had several major constituents: . To abolish central planning and to liberalize trade and prices. . To tighten the fiscal policy (in order to eliminate the practice of soft budgets) and in this way to reformulate the Resource Bargaining at all levels of the recursive system in order to meet standards of market economies. Liberalization, offering wider opportunities for entrepreneurial activity, aimed to compensate for the resultant increased budget rigidity. Such a combination of increased autonomy and restrictions were supposed to make the economy more financially efficient, wiping out the non-viable units. Unfortunately, the reforms were not as successful as expected. We explain this failure in terms of variety engineering: . Liberalisation loosened all the restrictions imposed on the environment by the “coercive power” of central planning and led to a boost of environmental complexity. The effect of efficient legislation is two-fold. On the one hand, it dampens possible oscillations between the system ones, serving as system two (e.g. legal frameworks: standards, efficient court systems and protocols of implementation of its decisions); on the other hand, it serves as an attenuator of the environmental variety by means of pre-concerted restrictions (laws). But the main function of the law (to order the behaviour of economic agents and in this way to attenuate environmental variety) was not being executed. Indeed, as a result of the law’s complexity (and therefore different interpretations), an amplifier of environmental variety was created. . Liberalisation failed to amplify the operational variety of “Production Units”. Amplifying the operational variety of “Production Units” introduces more flexibility into the decision-making. The new liberal climate was intended to stimulate a diversification of industrial potential, flexibility in price setting and other innovative activities. However, none of these opportunities were taken. The absence of market practice and the lack of managerial variety to absorb operational variety made enterprises reluctant to make use of their innovative potential and other efficacious factors such as entrepreneurship. Therefore, the conditions to make use of autonomy were not created (the time to restructure was too short and available resources were insufficient). . The disruption of the “central planner” (the five-year plans, production programmes and procedures) abolished powerful amplifiers of managerial

variety for “Production Units” with nothing to put in its place. The tightening of fiscal policy was executed through increases in taxation, which resulted in more rigidity in resource bargaining. Five-year plans were amplifiers in terms of variety engineering. Some investments could be made in order to compensate this but this is difficult to accomplish when faced with a tightening of fiscal policy. Figure 3 shows these changes. As a consequence, “Production Units” increased their operational variety at the expense of a reduced managerial capability to make use of new opportunities but still had to face the problem of coping with the proliferation of environmental variety. These arguments reveal serious flaws in the complexity control paradigm. Beer’s first cybernetic principle of organization was not resolved. In fact, the system took a path, which was totally contrary to the expectations of the reform designers. . The reform measures did not bring about much structural change within “Production Chains”. It did not lead to the dissipation of the old “Production Chains” and the creation of new more viable ones. Therefore, an increase of competition and massive resource reallocation from low to high productivity areas did not take place. In the Soviet Union, natural resources, such as gas, oil, and energy were underpriced to subsidize heavy industry. This led to the utilization of power-consuming technologies in metallurgy, machinery, etc. However, the overall production inefficiency was hidden due to the distorted system of price calculation and asset specificity. The abolition of central planning exposed these flaws. The considerable cost overruns and relative inefficiencies in the open market and “the relative incapacity to make good use of the resources essential for economic growth based on technical progress” became evident (Daianu, 1997). But since the removal of the “central planner”, enterprises started to act under asymmetric or scarce information[5]. They lacked the flexibility to obtain information in time and to restructure production chains. “Economic agents” preferred to stay within the existing structures rather than seeking other potentially more beneficial alternatives. Beer (1979) connects such forms of survival to the notion of pathology: pathologically autopoietic survival became a central theme for many production chains. Any alterations were not

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Figure 3. Complexity management after liberalisation

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evident and immediate at the beginning of transformation period. The production structure was preserved. The specificity effect and the presence of “monopolist” (due to scarce information) suppliers became a core element of the pathology having its roots in the central-planning system. These reforms resulted in a disruption of the system’s “Ethos”, which led to a change of identity of “Production Units”. The disruption of “Ethos” meant that the existing well-known “Rules of the Game” – central planning – were replaced by the rules of a free market marking the beginning of a change in the purpose of the system. To stress this identity change, starting from the next section, we use the term “Economic agent” rather than “Production unit”.

The second stage – bad governance and institutional transformations The disorganisation observed in the course of the first stage became a source of oscillations between “Economic Agents” who lost their homeostatic balances with their environments and were forced to preserve the existing “Production Chains”. This in turn constrained the potential of “Economic Agents” to adapt and restructure so that the oscillations became a serious threat to meta-systemic cohesion. A counteractive strategy was then generated by the meta-system at the levels of “Nation” and “Material Production” which misleadingly favoured the utilisation of the command channel, by enlarging the number of government officials. This overload and the dominance of the auditing activity (system three star) characterised the mode of governance during the second stage. This strategy also induced a spontaneous parallel process of institutional transformations at lower levels of recursion, which re-established the homeostatic balance but introduced new behavioural norms like corruption, barter and arrears. The command channel overload In the VSM model, the command and accountability channels between the senior management (meta-system) and the system ones are of low capacity and should not be exploited for routine management. This should be done by the system two which is a high capacity channel and routinely fulfils most of the coordination between system ones. The absence of efficient coordination incorporated into system two leads to an overload of the command channel – the state when the desired capacity of the channel far exceeds its actual properties. The “command channel over-load” can be represented as the interaction of system 1-3-5. If system three is busy trying to run the system ones’ operations directly, then its major role of looking for synergy and making decisions on the basis of the whole “inside and now” perspective will not get done. A channel’s incapacity to transmit and transduce a given amount of information will always create delays in control responses and thus, eventually, the quality of the co-ordination and management of the primary activities deteriorates. To improve the quality of control, senior management has to reallocate most of the available resources to support the functioning of system three. But, very often, in this situation, system’s four participation in the meta-systemic management is negligibly small. When system four does not provide system’s three with a high variety model, then, system three dampens oscillations in an ad hoc manner sometimes just responding to algedonic signals. This is then the trap: – a weak system two causes an overload on system three which in turn denies appropriate resources to remedy the system two:

A typical example of this trap was observed at the level “Nation”. Senior Management is required to pass an annual Budget Law, which represents a compliant set of Resource Bargains for all System Ones (e.g. Health, Army, Material Production, etc.). This law defines the annual budgets of the state authorities, tax levels and the conditions for their execution. The protocols and forms of budget execution and the principles of fiscal equalisation between tax revenues and expenditures should be part of the System Two. Particular properties of the budget plan will obviously influence the monetary policy of the National bank of Ukraine, which is a part of the System Four at the level of “Nation”. This is the one of the reasons why the Federal Budget should be passed before the start of the coming financial year and thus be a high variety attenuator for Senior Management. Observations of the functioning of Senior Management at the level of “Nation”, over the whole history of Ukrainian independence, reveals considerable drawbacks in its performance which can be explained by a persistent late Budget Law – even as late as the middle of the financial year in which it was meant to operate![6] (Figure 4).

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Bad governance – dominance of the system three “Star” In order to satisfy public expenditures and transformation needs, the Senior management of “Nation” imposed rigid resource bargaining on “Material production” forcing its system three to increase the tax burden for the system ones. This limited the freedom of economic agents and their opportunities for autonomy. It also caused large oscillations on the operational axis, which could not be attenuated by system three. The situation deteriorated further when this rigidity became so excessive that it forced “Economic Agents” (who are always trying to reduce this rigidity) to violate the legal processes of accountability. The consequence was tax avoidance, neglect of property rights, devaluation of business reputation and the diminishing power of civil law.

Figure 4. System “Nation”: the trap of command channel overload

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According to Beer’s first axiom of management the meta-system absorbs horizontal variety through six vertical channels. Four of them can be directly influenced by system three. If the high variety channel of system two is underused then this usually results in an internal incapability of governmental bodies to generate enough requisite variety to absorb the variety generated by the system ones. To improve control, the only option for the meta-system is to allocate even more resources to enlarge the size of the governmental managerial structures incorporated in system three. In this way, the capacity of the command channels is increased and system three can handle more variety. This explains the excessive number of state officials and governmental bodies in Ukraine, compared to countries with developed economies. Thus, when it is impossible for the meta-systemic response of “Material Production” to create an efficient system two at the level of “Nation”, there is an over-load of the accountability channel at the level “Material Production” and a lowered propensity of “Economic Agents” to execute their own accountability. The auditing activity of system three star then provides a solution. We call this practice “The Dominance of the System Three Star”, because attempts to enforce accountability further decrease the autonomy of system ones at the level “Material Production” and produced a basis for continuing oscillations. The dynamics of such a lock-in is the following: System Three “Star” has a dual auditing activity. On the one hand, it amplifies System Three’s ability to control the System Ones’ fiscal accountability; on the other hand, frequent penetration into their affairs restricts their freedom. This leads to a fall of management efficiency among enterprises and a desire to improve their performance. System Three interprets such behaviour as an indication of insufficient control and invests more resources to strengthen System Three Star. The critical point is reached when System Three cannot manage without this rigid auditing activity. This, coupled with the absence of an appropriately constructed System Two, leads to an even worse performance of the System Ones. Therefore, the appearance of a new institutional norm is observed. It is costly to society and inefficient fiscally as its enormous size cannot be justified in terms of its benefits. However, a redesign of the system by improving System Two would be very expensive which normally would not be bearable for a financially weary society and consequently is usually not undertaken (Figure 5).

There is ample evidence of this phenomenon in Ukraine. It can be observed by the deteriorating control of the economic environment. According to the IMF (1997) report, in 1996, Ukrainian enterprises rated harassment by local administrations, excessive taxation, and import regulations as being more severe than in 1994 and 1995. In another report Kaufmann and Kaliberda (1996) showed that in Ukraine there was rigid administrative control, an excessive taxation burden and frequently changing legislation. Institutional traps We argue that meta-system “Nation” showed features of bad governance during the initial period which gradually improved to poor governance. The slight improvement was due to institutional norm formation at lower levels of recursion that were self-organising. The creation of these norms mitigated the task of meta-systemic complexity management. Polterovich (1999) points out that the appearance of inefficient institutions or detrimental behavioural norms are often the unforeseen results of the extemporaneous

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Figure 5. System “Material production”: poor governance leads to three “star” practice

nature of transitional reforms. In some instances a newly evolved stable element of a system’s structure may be disadvantageous relative to those elements which the meta-system may have introduced[7]. Henceforth, we use the term “traps” (Polterovich, 1999) to describe peculiar norms of coordinated behaviour that can result from a system’s self-adaptations signifying detrimental consequences. The evolution of traps results from the path-dependent behaviour of systems. If a system’s structure is stable and the strength of external shocks is relatively small, the structural changes most likely will not take place. If a shock moves the system far from a stable state, the system’s structure may evolve into a new stable form. Moreover, once institutional norms have locked-in within a framework of social systems, they can obey the hysteresis effect, i.e. the cost of exterminating economically disadvantageous norms (even if the initial conditions that triggered their appearance, have ceased) is more resource consuming than the costs of their existence. Two examples of self-organisation, which played important role for system’s development, are now considered.

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Institutional traps of corruption Some conditions that are conducive for the emergence of corruption are: . System four is inadequate, so that the 3-4 interaction cannot produce positive results. . Most of the systemic resources are directed to develop system’s three “inside and now” policy. . The “Economic Agents” are suppressed by the auditing system three “Star”. . System two cannot damp oscillations. As taxes were not a feature of the former Soviet Union, paying taxes was not part of the “Ethos” of that society. Thus, tax evasion very quickly became part of the new “Ethos” of the “Nation” that affected the logic and nature of the other elements. The inclination to avoid tax leads to a corresponding adjustment of the whole system. New “rules of the game”, which include corruption are established. Systems three and four include this in their pattern-recognition ability to amplify control. So, the informal relations employed in system two became organically incorporated into the whole system. An ad hoc system two is created via the informal relations between economic actors and the government at the level of the “Material Production”. As a consequence, the oscillations on the operational axis of the “Material Production” are relieved. However, such a damping mechanism is only effective for a while. It eventually generates variety (in the form of a black economy) in the environment of the system “Nation” which cannot be regulated. This is because neither the system four nor the system ones at the level of “Nation” can recognise the image of the informal economy generated at lower levels. Using Beer’s terminology, this image is encoded in language incomprehensible to the system ones and system four. This creates a new wave of uncontrollability and instability at the level of “Nation”. That in turn forces the meta-system to introduce more rigidity into its resource bargaining at lower levels of recursion. So we observe a vicious circle of the growth of an unofficial economy and deterioration of complexity management. The barter trap The command channel overload was a reason of a poor strategy coined as “if algedonic signal, then generous damping payoff”. In 1992-1994 it resulted in unlimited money supply and caused bouts of hyperinflation. Inflationary financing of budget shortfalls damped oscillations at the level of “Nation” but led to considerable asset losses, and therefore, perturbations at the lower level of the system “Material Production”. Such a clash between different interests in different levels of recursion encouraged self-organisation. The Connant-Ashby theorem states that the model used by a regulator must have the requisite variety to absorb the variety of the system that is regulated. If the model does not have requisite variety to match the modelled situation, then the system will not be able to counteract disturbances that are incomprehensible to the regulator. This provides an explanation of what happened. Inflation was a novel phenomenon for a post-Soviet economy. “Economic Agents” tried to diminish their losses by seeking ways to accelerate the rate of circulation of money. However, the existing banking system could not cope with the subsequent rocketing number of transactions. In 1992-1994 the period of bank transfers could last up to a month.

Under such circumstances, the transaction costs of monetary exchanges grew very rapidly. People living under permanent inflationary expectations and inflationary attributes gain experience, which allows them to forecast its probable appearance. Gradually, the economic agents perceived that the transaction costs could be lowered if barter was substituted for monetary transactions and inflation could be tackled by getting rid of money in favour of goods. Moreover, as more participants choose barter, the lower the barter transaction costs would become since it was easier to find partners and put together barter chains. Eventually, bartering as a behavioural norm was consolidated in the system two of the level of material production. As learning how to improve this process took place, the variety of this anti-oscillatory device was further amplified. Counteractive measures taken by the “Economic Agents” to damp the oscillations triggered by the poor control policy of the meta-system, led to a survival strategy named “the barter phenomenon”. Bartering efficiently substituted for the underdeveloped monetary and banking systems. Therefore, oscillations, initiated by hyperinflation and an uncertain environment were damped by the boost of non-monetary transactions. The appearance of this behavioural pattern allowed the system to cope with the oscillations. Those “Economic Agents” who started using barter transactions, considerably reduced the scope of their operations and hence reduced their business environment (and certainly environmental complexity). This helped to regain homeostatic balance. Figure 6 shows the effect of these two traps.

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The third evolutionary stage – the virtual economy We argue that in the course of the third stage, the recursive structure of the system turned into a new convolution of the evolutionary process. The survival strategies of “Economic Agents” and “Production Chains” changed in accord with the newly formed institutional traits of the system and principles of meta-systemic control. The particular response of “Economic agents” to reforms, which propelled rigid resource

Figure 6. Creation of system two at the level material production

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bargaining, mixed with opportunities for soft budgeting and weak state governance is now examined. It will be shown that enterprises develop and coordinate informal activities as a means of survival during systemic instability. Liberalisation and fiscal and monetary rigidity were applied by the government to master high inflation and to wipe out the most inefficient entities. Hence, the complexity at lower levels of recursion was supposed to be reduced which would eventually increase the controllability of the whole system. Gaddy and Ickes (1998) explain the intentions of reformers as follows: They [reformers] viewed Soviet-type enterprises as typical enterprises encumbered by political controls. The notion was that without government control, and with hard budget constrains, enterprises . . . would behave like “normal” enterprises. That is, once political controls were lifted they would maximise shareholders value like any firm in the west.

However, the tightening of budget constraints for all enterprises essentially diminished the potential financial viability of “Economic Agents”. Those that were closest to the break-even point continued functioning with losses. It turned out that attempts to increase taxes and strengthen accountability were directed against those who could not lobby to soften these measures. Counteractive survival strategy of “Economic Agents” It was shown in the second stage, that the strong regulatory devices which allowed “Economic Agents” to resist resource bargain rigidity formed a system two at the level of the system “Material production”. These elements were: . Protocols of corruption (i.e. common “language” of bribe takers and bribers, accepted customs in a society, other conventions). . Unified rules and norms of barter transactions. Thus, “Economic Agents” invested a considerable part of their resources to erect a regulatory system, which they hoped would decrease the pressure of the rigid resource bargaining structure. This took a form of finding efficient survival mechanisms, which would secure survival, when profit-maximising behaviour is unattainable. Such a strategy was based on the existing regulatory system of informal relations between system one and government officials and was further extended to encompass managers who ran enterprises in the same “Production Chain”. The key point is that enterprises were able to increase output without a decrease of prices or change of technology, i.e. to improve their performance through bartering and obtaining lucrative contracts from government and enterprises integrated in the same production chain. Gaddy and Ickes (1998) called this phenomenon, “investments in relational capital”. Relational capital is a goodwill that can be transformed into improvement of primary activities. They state: The conventional view ignores the fact that due to mutation of the enterprise it has survival strategies unavailable to the “normal” enterprise. The enterprise can produce goods that can be used for barter or for tax offsets but cannot be sold on the market. It also procures inputs at a lower cost because relations allow it to pay in non-monetary means.

The introduction of relational capital, as an additional factor of a production function of an enterprise, indicates that the initial conditions describing an enterprise’s position

in the market has one more dimension. Such investments can improve the performance of an enterprise and give comparative advantages against “normal” enterprises forcing more and more to be involved in the same strategy. This is termed “the network effect”. The developing dynamics of this process can be described as a positive feedback loop. Enterprises will imitate behaviour that they observe to be successful. If some enterprises are able to survive without undertaking costly restructuring, then other enterprises may choose to follow this behaviour. If several enterprises are better off, when they invest in relational capital, then it is more likely that others will adapt their behaviour. Hence, once the strategy of lobbying soft budgeting appears to be working, the system may rapidly learn. Even if initially, enterprises were able to survive through investments in new technologies, soon they became uncompetitive against those competitors that adapt soft budgeting strategy. So we observe a network effect, which forces enterprises to tune their behaviour according to a new behavioural norm of survival. The appearance of a new recursive structure In our view, the existence of “mutant enterprises, operating under different rules” and the “fixing of abnormal institutional norms”, can be explained by the segregation of “Production Chains”, which governed “Economic Agents” with different behavioural patterns. It is justified by the fact that enterprises are more likely to interact with like-minded enterprises. So we postulate that two self-organised domains of “Production chains” have been formed in Ukraine. We term them a domain of “Real Production” and a domain of “Real Destruction”. The domain of “Real Production” encompasses those “Production chains”, which try to increase efficiency and produce value. The domain of “Real Destruction” encompasses those “Production chains”, which produce goods but consume rather than create economic benefit to the Nation (i.e. destroy value). Phenomena discussed previously such as corruption and barter provide stabilisation mechanisms that preserve the organisational coherence of the whole system. Thus, these illegal practices and the implicit consent of the meta-system feed off each other and eventually form self-organising processes that lead to internal stability. We argue that this is the real cause of “economic stabilisation”, the mastering of inflation, and even the end of the decline in production. A description of the systemic transformation is shown diagrammatically in Figure 7. “Production Chains”, segregated into the “Real Production” domain and “Real Destruction” domain, have the same structure and elements, but different purposes of existence. In this regard Geoffrey Vickers famously stated: “The trap is a function of the nature of the trapped”. Some of the features of the “Economic agents”, which constitute domain of “Real Destruction”, are: . They do not exhibit profit-maximising behaviour; all that matters is the level of output (asset flow) and employment. . They employ more workers than it is necessary for their level of output. Such a policy avoids social discontent while the level of salary stays at the lowest admissible range.

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Figure 7. New recursive structure

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They hunt for a pool of funding or resources, which allows them to maintain themselves. They literally allocate resources between one another. Arrears are a means of such latent reallocation of resources.

Such characteristics are possible because they operate within a favourable environment where profit and efficient management are inept. Previously, markets were defined as the environment of operational elements embedded into the system “Material production”. The new environment, which nourished systems in “Domain of Real Destruction”, we term as the “Virtual Market”. This coincides with the term

“Virtual Economy”[8] used by Gaddy and Ickes (1998) which described the new type of economic system as having its own rules of behaviour which: . . . based on illusion, or pretence, about almost every important parameter of the economy: – prices, sales, wages, taxes, and budgets.

The “Virtual Market” is a complementary phenomenon to a fairly well-organized system and has the following characteristics: . Money is inept in this environment, as long as prices are not defined by market mechanisms. . Prices do not reflect real values of selling goods. . Prices, which are normally a high variety attenuator of environmental variety in the competitive markets, do not carry out their informative role. . In the virtual environment prices are set by those who have bargaining power, i.e. suppliers overvalue their output – consumers accept these prices. . The law of demand and supply is no longer valid and is replaced by the “forced supply”[9]. . A real market can never match such prices, so barter and non-monetary transactions are introduced. A virtual economy creates the prerequisites for an unsuccessful monetary and fiscal policy. In such a situation, the government does not have any direct tools (monetary or fiscal policy) for regulating “Production Chains” in the domain “Real Destruction” and its environment. For example, the fiscal policy of hard budget constraints is an efficient tool in the domain “Real Production” but promotes, resistance in the domain “Real destruction”. For successful interventions, system four must have a model, which encompasses systems from both domains and their corresponding environments. Until this problem is acknowledged, homeostatic balance in system three-four interactions cannot be reached. Conclusions The problems of economic transition from a strong centralised command to market conditions are one of the most interesting current economic investigations. In our opinion, current economic theory has not managed to capture all the intricacies as evidenced by many of the disastrous policies advocated by the World Bank. A new approach is needed and this paper suggests using a methodology based on the VSMs created by Stafford Beer. In our view, the transition process is an historical process that takes place over a large period of time. At many points in this process, there are crises, which could be described as bifurcation points, and actions are taken that destroy the ideas of causality. Thus it is impossible to predict the future but it is possible to understand the structural adaptations that are taking place and thus understand the potential for several possible economic outcomes. We contend that the basic mechanism is simple – the systems desire to preserve its identity. Using this premise, we have examined the case of the Ukraine. Three stages have been identified: disorganisation, bad governance and the virtual economy. Economic policy has been analysed as a variety management problem and interesting insights

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have been highlighted. A subsequent paper will describe a working model that incorporates these features. Notes 1. We use the term “ material production” as it is widely accepted in a command economy to stress that elements of the system of material production are merely or primarily oriented to produce products and services without financial considerations. The process of production does not always coincide with profitability or value adding. Often it is not even clear whether a producer is a value adder or not, due to distorted calculation techniques. 2. An asset is specific to a given exchange relation (or transaction) to the extent that it cannot be redeployed for use in another context without appreciable loss in productive value. 3. Williamson (1985) calls the situation a small-numbers exchange, when there are few parties available to fill one side of an exchange, whether supplier or buyer. 4. In economic theory vertical integration means the merger of technologically related operations under one controlling centre. In the command economy vertical integration is the most dominating phenomenon. 5. It is assumed that the centralised planner controlled all the information about perspective partners in a production process. 6. For example, according to IMF (1997) Staff country report the 1997 budget was not approved until June 1997, but the consolidated budget deficit, on a cash basis, remained under control. The budget preparations in the previous years were even more lax. 7. For example, technologies, which are inferior to others, that might have been chosen (Sterman, 2000) or abnormal behavioural patterns like corruption and barter. 8. We differentiate markets as the environment of operational elements from the widely used term “Economy”, which is in our notation stands for a description of operational domain. 9. When entries to other markets are closed and only few suppliers exist in the market, consumers are forced to except any conditions of the proposed deal. References Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, Chichester. Bhaskar, R. (1975), A Realist Theory of Science, Leeds Book Ltd, Leeds. Bhaskar, R. (1978), The Possibility of Naturalism, Harvester Press, Brighton. Bhaskar, R. (1989), Scientific Realism and Human Emancipation, Verso, London. Daianu, D. (1997), “Resource misallocation and strain: expanding shocks in post-command economies”, William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series, No. 96, University of Michigan Business School, Ann Arbor, MI. Gaddy, C. and Ickes, B. (1998), “Beyond a bailout: time to face reality. About Russia’s ‘Virtual Economy’”, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, unpublished manuscript. International Monetary Fund (IMF) (1997), “Ukraine-recent economic developments”, Staff Country Report No. 97/109, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. Kaufmann, D. and Kaliberda, A. (1996), “Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies: a framework of analysis and evidence”, in Kaminski, B. (Ed.), The International Politics of Eurasia, Economic Transition in Russia and the New States of Eurasia, 8, M.E. Sharpe, Armonk, NY.

Polterovich, V. (1999), “Institutional traps and economic reforms”, working paper, CEMI, Moscow. Shygayeva, T. (2001), “Industrial production and finance”, in Szyrmer, J. et al. (Eds), Ukraine: Monetising a Transition Economy, Alterpress, Kyiv. Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking and Modelling for a Complex World, Irwin McGraw-Hill, New York, NY. Wiles, P. (1977), Economic Institutions Compared, Blackwell, Oxford. Williamson, O. (1985), The Economic Institutions of Capitalism, The Free Press, New York, NY. About the authors Andrey Sergeyev is a researcher in Systems and Cybernetics, Approaches and Institutional Economics. He got a Master in Economics (highest honours) in Economics and Industrial Management at Donetsk State University, Ukraine. He graduated in 2004 from the Doctoral Programme at the School of Computing, Engineering and Technology, in the University of Sunderland, UK. His research interests are in System Dynamics, Non-linear Dynamics, System Thinking, Cybernetics, Institutional Economics. E-mail: [email protected] Alfredo Moscardini works at the University of Sunderland in the North of England. He is an applied mathematician by training but did his PhD in Interactive Computing for Finaite Element Analysis before changing to mathematical modelling. Over the past ten years, his field of research has evolved to Systems Thinking and especially the work of Stafford Beer. He is currently spreading these ideas to Russia, Egypt and Ukraine. He can be contacted at: alfredo. [email protected]

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Leonie Solomons and Alfredo Moscardini University of Sunderland, Sunderland, UK Abstract Purpose – This paper identifies meta-level considerations long ignored in Sri Lanka’s peace negotiations. Design/methodology/approach – Variety absorption being at the heart of manoeuvres by the various parties of the negotiation, Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety informs the diagnosis. Also used are Beer’s viable systems model, Maturana’s structural coupling and Stokes sociological thinking on identity which encompasses the nature of identity, levels of identity, organisation of identity. Findings – Whilst in Sri Lanka’s conflict resolution parlance, identity has been pivotally limited to race, in socio-cybernetic terms it denotes much more. This leads to the recognition that relationships between structurally coupled entities change as negotiations progress thus calling upon them (and others) to dynamically adapt their identity in their endeavour to retain viability. Practical implications – The diagnosis shows the need to design negotiation processes capable of absorbing the variety needed to address the content of negotiations. Originality/value – Linking identity to viability explains why stakeholder relations move through emergent properties/relations and why negotiations between static protagonist, as done in all previous Sri Lankan peace negotiations, are doomed to failure. This work is useful for those who formulate the modalities of Sri Lanka’s peace talks and for cyberneticians and people involved in conflict resolution – particularly those bedevilling sovereignty. Keywords Cybernetics, Sri Lanka, Conflict resolution, Sociology, Political sociology Paper type Research paper

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 108-123 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640263

Introduction For many it is difficult to understand what drives a people to strategise to maim, kill, and destroy. All of this happens in Sri Lanka and is executed in a bid to retain cohesion or to acquire and legitimise autonomy in a socio-legal context. Yet the greater calamity lies in its intractability. In an endeavour to find a different understanding of the impasse reached in content[1] negotiations, the following “process design” question is addressed: What are the meta-level considerations that have been ignored during the peace negotiations? This work, a first in cybernetic diagnosis of the Sri Lankan peace talks, is expected to be useful for those who position for and negotiate the modalities of peace talks. It should also serve as a useful discussion platform for cyberneticians and people involved in conflict resolution – particularly issues bedevilling sovereignty. Accordingly as a prelude, an overview of Sri Lanka and the cybernetic epistemology that informs the diagnosis is provided.

Sri Lankan overview Whilst Sri Lanka’s island-wide territorial sovereignty is internationally recognised, internally a de-facto state is progressively formalising its power over people living in the Northern Province and parts of the Eastern province. The purpose of the peace negotiation is to mutually agree on how to devolve power in a bid to avert war and secession. In the approach to the 2002-2003 peace talks, Sri Lanka had a constitutionally elected government (GoSL) engaged in a protracted war with the autocratically led LTTE politico-military freedom fighter movement. The LTTE fought in the name of the Tamil race of people for the cause of what is called Tamil Eelam (homeland), which implies secession or at the very minimum the need for devolution of power by the central government. The 20 year war was considered by many to be in stalemate conditions and aided by the international mood against terrorism gave hope for a return to peace talks. This agreeably coincided with the Norwegian government’s invited diplomatic initiatives to bring the GoSL and the LTTE into dialogue. With the election of the (UNF[2]) government in December 2001 and the satisfaction of pre-negotiation conditions[3], peace talks commenced under Norwegian facilitation until after the sixth round of talks when the LTTE opted to suspend their participation, a fate not unknown to previous peace negotiations. Notable amongst the array of reasons[4] attributed by the LTTE for the suspension of its participation at the talks was the new aspect of internationalisation of the conflict and as previously experienced at other talks – the slow implementation of decisions, particularly those affecting humanitarian relief. There were, however, many other strategically contentious issues, such as the Muslims wanting a position at the negotiating table. There was also the constitutionally hampered co-habitation between the president and prime minister, who each headed different political parties, and which eventually led to the government’s term being truncated. Elections were called in April 2004 and were won by the (UPFA) coalition led by the party to which the president belonged. Attempts at returning to peace talks have faded in the presence of antinomies (some of them historically well known) like: . Internationalization of the conflict where international pressure (based on peace hinged foreign aid) has been brought to bear to decide what is considered by some to be a domestic ethno-political issue. Yet others argue it was the taking of the conflict to the international forum that enabled the peace talks to be orchestrated and the cessation of hostilities to hold within tolerable margins of infringement. . Interim resolutions emphasising humanitarian and economic relief to the war affected must precede discussion of core issues. Compare this to the assertion that interim issues need to be discussed in the context of core issues facing final settlement. . The aggrieved minority, as a group, claim it is futile to pursue individual rights when the aspirations of the group are denied. In contrast, the vibe of democracy, pluralism and human rights surmises that group rights are meaningless without individual rights, which is all the more poignant under authoritarian regimes. . This is a conflict facing a majority within a country who are a minority within the Indian sub-continental region within which they are encompassed. Conversely, the minority within the country claim their identity will be lost unless they can exercise their autonomy to ensure survival.

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Epistemology Cybernetics is chosen as the underpinning epistemology that will inform the diagnosis of sociological situations where survival of an entity is in crisis. Its theoretical framework is now explained. Weiner defined cybernetics as “the science of communication and control in animal and machine”. Besides crossing, what until then was the scientific divide between the animate and inanimate kingdom, the critical point to highlight is that control, or let us less prejudicially call it “regulate”, implies the existence of a goal, which may be predefined or heuristically ascertained. Importantly, the question pertaining to the goal is – upon what basis is the goal(s) selected? In Beer’s view, that minimally is survival. In other words, an entity whether it be animate or inanimate must at the very minimum set its goals so that it achieves viability. Fail this test of viability and the entity ceases to exist, which makes all other goals it may have set itself inconsequential. Vacillate around the fringes of viability and crisis hovers. Achieve viability and other goals become relevant. Since crisis conditions are the concern, the concept of viability is explored. Viability applies from moment to moment and thus is a dynamic rather than static notion. Consequently, the question that arises is minimally twofold and pertains to: (1) Recognising whether an entity has survived or not. In other words, how does one identify whether an entity continues to exist as itself, particularly given its dynamic requirement as it exists in its environment? Where lies the distinction between adapting whilst yet conserving its identity compared to its identity transforming itself into something else (the classic example being transforming from life to death)? (2) How an entity governs itself so as to be viable given its environment? Distinguishing survival – structural coupling Whilst there is no isomorphic mapping that is applicable from the molecular biological world to the socio-legal world, Maturana’s work on structural coupling is useful as an analogy to initiate the diagnosis of the Sri Lankan peace negotiations. Maturana (2002) as part of his question “what should happen in the manner of constitution of a system so that I see as a result of its operation a living system” abstracted, based on biological observational premises, the notion of autopoiesis (self production of itself) and in that context, structural coupling. Maturana distinguishes between an entity as a whole adapting to its environment while conserving its identity, compared to disintegrative changes, where the entity as a whole changes to such an extent that it loses its identity and thus transforms itself into something else. To make this distinction, Maturana differentiates, using tight nomenclature, between what he calls an entity’s structure and its organization. Maturana (2002) uses: . . . organization to connote the configuration between components that define the class identity of a composite unity or system as a totality or singular entity. And in what follows I shall consistently use the word structure to refer to the components and the relations between them that realize a system or composite entity as a particular case of a particular class.

Thus, the class of identity to which an entity belongs is categorised based on organization – the configuration of relations between components. In contrast

an identity’s sub-categorisation (particular case of a particular class) is based on structure – the components and the configurations of relations between the components that form the entity. Accordingly organization is an aspect of structure. Therefore structure can change (e.g. component replacement) without changing organization – the configuration of relationships between the components, which thus conserves the identity of the entity. This Maturana calls “changes of state” or adaptation where the entity will continue to essentially be what it is and do what it does and conserve its identity. However, when only the configuration of relationships change (organization change) or where both components and the configuration of relationships change (structural change), the entity loses its class identity. Maturana calls this “disintegrative changes”. Looking at the surrounds in which an entity exists, Maturana points out that that an entity, any entity, exists not in isolation but in an environment of other entities with whom it is structurally coupled, and with whom it reciprocally interacts in varying degrees, as part of its existence. Thus, the entity is dynamically vying from moment to moment to maintain its continued existence. Equally so are all the other entities (for they live by the same principles) and so moment to moment it is like a dance where each is adapting and seeking to conserve their individual identity in the context of its structural couplings which are its environment. Furthermore, Maturana (2002) states that systems are structure determined where “all that takes place in it, or happens to it at any instant, is determined by its structure at that instant”. What this means is that the external environment, its structurally coupled entities, only influences (not dictates or commands) how an entity responds. Gharajedaghi (2002) usefully distinguishes “To control means that an action is both necessary and sufficient to produce the intended outcome. To influence means that the action is not sufficient: it is only a coproducer.” Maturana also points to the differentiation between recognising systems as composite unities, which implies embedment of component systems, compared to recognising systems as simple unities which either have no embedments or where we choose to ignore their embedments. As Maturana (1980) says: An entity, distinguished from a background by an observer through an operation of distinction that by specifying it as a whole specifies the background from which it is distinguished, constitutes a unity. The operation of distinction, by specifying the conditions of distinction, specifies the properties of the entity distinguished as a unity. An entity, in which an observer does not or cannot distinguish components, is a simple unity. An entity in which an observer describes parts, that he names components, by distinguishing them in reference to the entity that they conjointly integrate as a simple unity, is a composite unity.

As to what constitutes an entity’s identity (its properties) is both for the entity to ascribe and for other entities to recognise and in so doing entails the building of consensuality which in the sociological world is negotiable and reciprocally evidenced in the manner of the structural coupling of the entities. Cognitively therefore, we seek to co-ordinate our understanding of what constitutes a particular entity’s properties and within which its identity is conserved. Maturana’s distinction between simple and composite unity is another way of looking at the nesting of systems. In other words, we can opt to view a system as it is and delve no further or an observer can chose to distinguish its nested component

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systems. Note, the composite entity can be either the entity being focused upon or refer to the entities with which it is structurally coupled, its environment. The important point is what difference does it make whether simple or composite unity is chosen as the basis for peace negotiations and the diagnosis that engages us here?

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Governance – viable system model It stands to reason, the more aggregated a system the more numerous its embedded component systems. Beer’s viable system model (VSM) provides a rigour with which to distinguish the embedded component systems. The VSM built on the premise of “every viable system contains and is contained in a viable system” (Beer, 1984) provides such distinction via the concept of recursion, which also specifies the necessary and sufficient internal functionality that an entity needs in order to be viable given the context of its environment. Within each recursive entity are systems (S) which perform the following functions so that together the requisite variety is produced to interact with its environment in the pursuit of achieving the entity’s goals. . S1, supported by the other systems, produces what it takes for the system to be viable given its external environment. . S2 monitors and dampens detrimental oscillatory movements between and within S1 production relationships. . S3 functionality is devoted to addressing “internal issues facing it now”, e.g. negotiating resource bargains between S1 production units and formulating policy directives and taking corrective action when not complied with. . S3 *, exercised by S3, conducts ad hoc audits of S1 production units. . S4 is devoted to modelling and assessing “the entity’s capability to address future issues expected from the environment” so as to better its ability to survive in the future. . S5 addresses meta-level issues (of the next higher level of recursion) and the homeostatic relationship between the current (S3) and the future (S4) capability needs of the entity to absorb variety as the entity interacts with the environment. This is shown in Figure 1 including bi-directional channels via which each of the systems within a recursion is internally connected, and the entity as a whole is connected to its environment. For these channels to be effective they must fully reach across to the point of boundary connection; the channel must be capable of transmitting the sent information between its points of connection; and the point of receipt at the boundary must have the variety at least equivalent to the variety of the information sent on the channel and all of this “must be cyclically maintained through time without hiatus or lags” (Beer, 1979). Note, while Maturana addresses structural coupling between entities, Beer gives us insights into the linkage device (channel and its attributes) between the entities and within an entity’s own functionality, be it composite or simple unity. Additionally, Beer drives at the tension between cohesion and autonomy. The former works on the vertical axis to unify the recursive levels of systems. Autonomy is invoked by each horizontal production entity and its support functions so as to

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Figure 1. VSM

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maximise its ability to absorb the variety as it interacts with its environment. Therefore, working horizontally and vertically are the nuances of identity which each system is seeking to conserve and therein lies the stress when the identity correlates do not cohere. Maturana’s composite unity carries similarities to the recursion levels in the VSM while a non-decomposable simple unity is the lowest level of recursion in a VSM. Note the embedded entities within a composite unity can also exist in the VSM environment. The structural coupling is analogous to the relationship between what the VSM calls the system and the environment. Disintegration is equivalent to the vital loss of viability and adaptation is what S4 is seeking to minimally achieve so that S3 and other support functions are positioned to support the production requirements of S1. Underpinning all of this is Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety which is usually stated as “Variety absorbs Variety” or “only variety in R can force down variety due to D; only variety can destroy variety”. R and D are regarded here as players in a game but often R is a regulator and D a disturbance in Ashby’s approach. This was extended with Roger Conant in the famous theorem “Every good regulator of a system must be a model of that system”[5]. Linking to sociology and applicability to negotiations Given that in cybernetic terms “identity” carries a vital generic meaning, Stokes (2004) states: Beer’s VSM is quintessentially a model of identity, the structure of identity and the control processes that go to sustain identity.

Continuing Stokes says: . . . identities are nested within identities within identities. This is how societies are structured: individuals are embedded within organizations, which are in turn recursively embedded within structures of the state.

In VSM terms these expressions of identity pertain to different levels of recursion. In Maturana’s structural coupling language identity refers to recognition stemming from the difference between simple and composite unity which can refer to the entity or the entities with which it is structurally coupled. Let us build the explanation by quoting Stokes (2004) who writes about identity from multiple perspectives, and accompany it with comments pertinent to Sri Lanka. Managing sameness and differences By means of identity discrete and separate elements are brought into common or shared arrangement one with the other. Identity is the pattern that connects. Another way to say this is that identity is the mode of integration of otherwise heterogeneous elements under the aegis of a single sign complex. A failure of integration means that the identity project has failed or has come unstuck.

Certainly, this “failure of integration” is descriptive of Sri Lanka’s schism of racially based conflict. Note the intention of integration is not that differences disappear, but rather that the identity of the meta-level system encompasses the different identities of its sub-systems, and in this sense, such is what the peace negotiations need to address.

Nature of identity Whereas many humans may have identity attributed to them [which raises the question of power] all humans have the potential to take on their own self-assigned identity by winning recognition from others (Hegel, 1910; Koje`ve and Queneau, 1980).

Here lies the lens to understanding the tremendous importance of the internationalisation of the conflict and why self-declaration is insufficient for secession. Whilst identity can be bestowed upon oneself, it needs to be recognised by others, particularly in matters of sovereignty in terms of international diplomatic, finance and trading relations. The same holds true for conserving sovereign identity, for it needs to be internationally recognised in continuity, not merely just at the time of granting sovereignty. It is suggestively posited that the Tamils see themselves as a distinct identity exercising their autonomy within Sri Lanka, albeit in war torn territory. However, internationally they remain unrecognised in their sovereignty. Conversely, Sri Lanka (under its allegedly Sinhalese hegemony caption) is internationally recognised but its internal integrated identity is crumbling. It is also pertinent to point out that international recognition can be de facto achieved if the LTTE can directly gain foreign lending from a bi-lateral or multilateral lender via the civil administration systems as established and run by the LTTE. This is particularly relevant to note during this time of tsunami reconstruction, for the argument could well be launched for direct foreign aid/funding based on humanitarian grounds if the GoSL is found to be unfairly discriminating against relief and reconstruction in the war-torn Tamil areas. Levels of identity Separate identities can only be integrated by means of a supervening identity of higher logical typing.

The question is what will that supervening identity of Sri Lanka be? By what characteristic will it be known and its coherence sustained? This is an absolutely critical question in terms of distinguishing whether and when the GoSL negotiates as a supervening identity (higher level of recursion) or as a peer identity (same level of recursion) alongside the LTTE (Figures 2 and 3). If it is the former, then Sri Lanka’s negotiations have been based on asymmetrical considerations. This explains the consternations experienced by other peer systems (e.g. Muslim community) that have been excluded from the negotiations with their peer entity (the LTTE) and to a lesser extent the supervening entity (GoSL). If it is the latter, then neither peer entity, during this or any previous peace talks, has reached the stage of negotiating the design of the supervening identity. Also there has been no mechanism set in place for the sub-systems to negotiate with their meta-level entities. Identity and control Identity is not some once and for all status or trait of a person but is essentially an ongoing process of selection and mapping. As such, identity involves a process of control. . . Identity sets the standard for what kind of perceptions are expectable from us – both for ourselves

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Figure 2.

Figure 3.

and for others to whom we communicate with our behaviours. It is not behaviours as such that are important. Rather it is how they are constructed in narrative and perceived in understanding.

In Sri Lanka despite the sensitivities of race relations there has never been a combined ministerial portfolio integrating race, language and religious issues. Rather the trend has been a separate minister in charge of each race, language and religious group[6].

Diagnosis of peace negotiations A central theme of the peace talks will need to address the balance between autonomy and cohesion in the context of the country and its embedded component systems. Accordingly, it needs to consider: Who are the entities involved in the negotiation process? Is it just the GoSL and LTTE or are there other entities evolving in their significance? Is it adequate to impose the entities expressly engaged in war as synonymous with the entities entitled to negotiate?

The entity “country” is easy enough to circumscribe due to its geographical island mass. However, basing its identity as articulated in the constitution would be questionable as vast numbers of people in the northern and eastern province operate outside the purview of the GoSL. Indeed this is the crux of the crisis where the identity of Sri Lanka is being called upon to adapt or disintegrate, where a part secedes and thus the property of island-wide sovereignty is forsaken. Given that devolution of power involves geographical territory and race based communities, Figure 2 shows a perspective on how the composite unities, based on race forming the lowest logical level of embedment, can be viewed. In Sri Lanka community interests are usually represented by political parties which could be reflecting economic, race and/or religious groups at the national and provincial level of government. However, when we look at the negotiations, we find that many of these embedded entities have no place in the formal process of peace negotiations. Nor was there a process and channel to ensure these structurally coupled entities were consulted. Monitoring processes were absent and so too were processes to facilitate remedies. Consequently, even if the needs for corrective actions were identified by others, such alerts were forced to be ignored. Note this fate did not befall the agreement on the cessation of hostilities where such monitoring and corrective facilitator processes were catered for by the Nordic comprising Sri Lanka monitoring mission (SLMM). During the arduous phase of “soliciting for peace talks” it appears that the Norwegian diplomatic initiatives to bring together the warring parties (GoSL and LTTE) were made on the principle of interacting with simple unities, like the GoSL (and by default its coalition of political parties), the LTTE and opposition political parties like the UNP. Note, in VSM terms this “soliciting phase” is a S4 activity – assessing and building capability for the future. This simple unity perspective was continued during the phase of “pre talk positioning” where once the UNP won parliamentary majority, the first formal document – the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the cessation of hostilities was signed by the GoSL and the LTTE without the president (who constitutionally is the Head of the Armed Forces) being party to the agreement. This ignored embedment (namely the president) was later to exercise the force of its structural coupling to constitutionally topple the UNF government. In VSM terms the MOU and peace talk negotiations are S1 and S3 activities for the GoSL and LTTE. The president’s action is a S5 action on GoSL (S3) which runs the S1 activities of the Sri Lankan government, including that of the peace talks. These simple unity negotiations between the GoSL and LTTE were invoked from the “commencement of Talks” phase to “during the Talks” phase despite the call by Muslims and to a lesser extent the Sinhalese to be included at the formal negotiations table. Recent history also shows a LTTE defection led by eastern faction Colonel

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Karuna, on the grounds of the LTTE representing Northern Tamils and therefore being inadequate to the task of representing Eastern Tamil aspirations. Informed by structural coupling the salient points to highlight are: (1) The negotiating parties were based on a static recognition of interest limited to the entities that were engaged in war. (2) No provision appears to have been made to allow other entities to enter into discussion with the main protagonist or amongst themselves. (3) The second point indicates that those who designed the negotiations process lacked recognition or were hampered in their ability to gain consensus amongst the primary protagonists that the relationship between structurally coupled entities change as the entities themselves adapt. Consequently, those entities initially excluded could not participate in the peace negotiations despite the evolving (un/favourable) effect on their relationships. For example, as the relationship between the GoSL and LTTE changed or was proposed to change, that bi-directionally changed or prospectively could change the relationships that other entities had with the GoSL and the LTTE. It was this deficiency that locked out the Muslims, factions of the Tamil community and even for that matter Sinhala nationalists from the process of negotiations. It is this simple unity categorisation trap that articulates itself as “Simply to say only those parties that engage in war need to talk is rather like telling Muslims to take up arms and engage in war”[7]. During earlier Thimpu peace talks, this same sentiment was expressed by sub groups within the Tamil community who had not taken up arms. (4) While the components have changed at least on the side of the GoSL and to a much lesser extent for the LTTE, the organization question (in the meaning of Maturana’s nomenclature) that remains is: “have the relationships changed between the GoSL and the LTTE?” Diagnosis of the negotiations indicates no. For example, using a sensitive indicator like the status of the strategic land mass of Trincomalee, both sides continue to jostle to command its territory knowing that it is the gateway of contiguity between the Northern and the Eastern Province. Additionally, applying the thinking of Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety: (5) Glaringly absent, as with all other peace talks, were “negotiation process design” considerations. By this it is meant, whether the “traditional agenda driven meeting format and negotiations-in-residence” was capable of absorbing the massive variety as inherently existing in the complexity of severe conflict. This variety pertained to content issues, stakeholder representation, peace talk logistics, and flanking administrative procedures (including their monitoring and corrective mechanisms) that would be required to flesh out the directives/in principle decisions of the negotiations. However, it appears only “starting position” negotiators, content and peace talk logistics (like venue, timings, and international supporters) were considered.

This question pertaining to the variety absorption capability of the chosen negotiation format is a significant “negotiation process design” issue which is addressed in a separate paper. Let us hint, however, that useful consideration in this regard concerns “large group intervention processes”. In addition, the important VSM diagnostic points to highlight are: (6) Change in logical entities between the time of “soliciting of peace talks” compared to “peace talk negotiations”. For example, the soliciting phase which succeeded was done with a (UNP) political party whereas the “peace talk negotiations” were done with the GoSL, albeit UNP led GoSL. Thus while the components appear to be the same, they operate with different purposes and therefore functionality and relationships given that they pertain to different logical entities. (7) Whilst neutral monitoring and corrective mechanisms were put in place to monitor compliance of the cessation of hostilities, an equivalent S2 and S3 * was not set up or invoked to monitor or audit the implementation of the agreements pertaining to immediate humanitarian and reconstruction relief. Indeed, there is little evidence to suggest that timeframes and deliverables were specified as part of the agreements reached which is particularly important given the widely known ineffectiveness and inefficiency of the GoSL’s civic administrative system. When the LTTE suspended their participation in the talks, they adduced what they called the lack of “existential relief” as part of the reasoning behind their decision. (8) Discussions with the Norwegians during the “soliciting of peace talks” phase was a S4 activity discussed with the UNP political party. In contrast the “peace talk negotiations” phase was by the GoSL, a different logical entity, involving its S1 (negotiating team) and S3 (prime minister and cabinet and to much lesser extent parliament) activity but without the formal involvement of the president’s S5 homeostatic function. Furthermore, the GoSL seemed to lack S4 functionality, attending to matters pertaining to the evolving peace negotiations. Note the GoSL’s Peace Secretariat was primarily a S1 activity involved with organising the implementation of peace talk agreements. Once peace talks began, it appears the bulk of the players who prepared for the peace talks (S4 activity) were sucked into the peace talks itself (S1 activity), leaving a S4 vacuum. Furthermore, lacking S4, the necessary flanking requirements of administrative systems, monitoring and corrective protocols could not be caught here either. Neither could anything be done about positioning to accommodate the emergent relationships of other entities (refer point 2). The absence of S4 also aided S5 functionality, with its constitutional backing, to easily crash into S3. Lacking skilled and devoted functionality to future positioning it was inevitable that design process deficiencies were unlikely to be remedied. Even if the Norwegian’s or any other stakeholder had realised such (which in itself there is little evidence to suggest), the GoSL was not in a position to address it. Note, an exception to such S4 functionality was formulating an international forum for aid pledges (in Oslo, Washington and Tokyo), albeit that this later proved to be a breaking point for the LTTE as they were not permitted to participate in the Washington forum, due to their US terrorist proscription status.

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Importantly, presented are the cybernetic reasons rather than the political or legal reasons for why the talks traversed the path to suspension. These cybernetic arguments principally consist of: . Ignoring the embedded systems, their connection channels and the nature of the dynamically changing reciprocal relationships of the structurally coupled entities. . Lacking monitoring and corrective facilitation systems across a spectrum of agreements. . The lack of continuity of S4 functionality. . Inadequacy of variety absorption considerations, particularly pertaining to the design of the negotiations process. Figure 3 shows these inadequacies which have been repeated in Sri Lanka’s history of Pacts[8], war and talks, and hopefully also conveys why asymmetrical considerations invite excluded entities to rebel. Note, there is a requisite variety difference between asymmetrical decisions based on “asymmetrical considerations” rather than on “symmetrical considerations”. In the latter case, the decisions pertain to a part after having considered the whole (e.g. its effect on the various structural couplings and their relationships). In the former the decision pertains to a part without considering the whole. Here lies the cardinal gap which forbids deficiencies being seen and therefore considered in the decision-making process. “Symmetrical consideration” entails the recognition of much more variety the absorption of which calls upon substantial design considerations. On the other hand, decisions based on asymmetrical considerations certainly attenuate variety but if significant variety is ignored then the system will eventually evidence the fault as has happened with the history of failed talks. On an optimistic note, each occasion of peace negotiations has made progress in understanding what it takes to gain consensuality which Maturana (2002) describes as “co-ordinations of co-ordinations of consensual behaviour or doings”. The other inadequacy stemming from the skew of representation (absence of Muslims and Sinhalese in the negotiations) is that the GoSL (if it be a supervening entity) collapses into representing the missing peer communities (e.g. Muslims and Sinhalese). This results in the GoSL being (rightly) perceived as biased (not representing the Tamils) and abrogating its supervening role, which then acts as evidence that the GoSL is not negotiating as a supervening entity. On the other hand, if the GoSL is negotiating as a peer-to-peer entity with the LTTE, by default it means the GoSL cannot be representing the Tamils since the LTTE is representing them. There is a subtlety that could be mounted to say that the GoSL is also representing those Tamils that are not represented by the LTTE (e.g. those Tamils who do not subscribe to being represented by the LTTE). Whatever the composition of the GoSL’s representation, what is lacking in peer-to-peer negotiations is attention to the creation of a supervening identity which coheres the composition of the peer entities. Furthermore, since there is no formal avenue for those represented (e.g. embedded communities, provinces) to be consulted, the negotiation proposals end up being non-contestable. This is demonstrated by the Tamil Karuna faction’s non-acceptance of the ISGA proposal as put forward by the LTTE. To overcome this flaw, a solution is

to also enable negotiations at a lower level of recursion so as to use it as a process for vocalising acceptance or amendments which then also enables verification (i.e. that consultation and agreement has been reached) to take place. This solution path has the advantage of continuing discussion rather than rejection which is what has happened with the ISGA proposal. Ironically, with the joint mechanism (JM) proposal for the allocation of tsunami relief the proposal is to create a JM comprising the GoSL, Tamil and Muslim representation. This solution by default forces the GoSL to represent the (missing) Sinhalese who too were affected by the tsunami. Such design portrays the traditional accusation that the GoSL, being run by the dominant majority, favours the Sinhalese. The point thus goes back to the flawed design of the missing supervening identity or peer communities. Tsunami post script To assess the effect of the acute crisis imposed by the tsunami on the chronic crises which bred secessionist demands, the following scenario is considered in the context of the LTTE’s de facto civic infrastructure services which includes its own judiciary, police, etc. It is generally considered that GoSL’s civic administrative system is ineffective and inefficient. This is exacerbated by the fact that over the decades the GoSL has eroded its Tamil language skill set[9] and strategically weakened itself in its ability to deliver its civic administrative services within the enclaves of Tamil speaking areas. Faced with this language deficiency, a bid could have been made to collaborate with a rebel Tamil group so as to augment the GoSL’s ability to deliver its services in Tamil. However, this strategy would have still been hampered due to the general weakness that pervades the GoSL’s civic administrative system. Another strategy could have been to orchestrate the creation or strengthening of some other Tamil rebel group. However, neither option could be quickly manned with both a fighting contingent and its own functioning civic administration. In particular, the civic administrative system takes time to build and must be delivered in the language of the people it serves. Furthermore, it takes respect (or fear) to gain acceptance by the people so that this civic administrative system is used in preference to the LTEE’s system. The advantage the LTTE has gained is based on the triadic combination in that it has already commenced and is progressively building its own civic administrative system in the Tamil language and by so doing has earned the respect (or fear) of the people which has ensured its use. Neither the GoSL and/or other rebels groups are capable of quickly replicating this and here lies the LTTE’s critical lapse time strategic advantage. Importantly, the tsunami now calls upon the LTTE’s de facto civic infrastructure system to provide relief and reconstruction measures to the tsunami affected, which ironically it is better positioned to execute given its experience with handling the war-torn relief and reconstruction preparations. Thus while the cessation of hostilities continues precariously to be honoured, the LTTE continues to strategically build and strengthen the implementation of its civic structures. Many in the South, however, distract themselves with the old fashion thinking over the LTTE’s military build up of its armaments and fighting strength. The strategic point is that even if the GoSL could succeed in employing its military strength to target these LTTE civic structures which give credence to the LTTE’s

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de facto state, the GoSL is constrained in replacing the de facto civic infrastructure due to its language handicap. This inability to establish and maintain civic normalcy keeps the war gates open and brings back stalemate conditions, unless of course Sri Lanka is able to wipe out the LTTE military arm (as was done with the JVP insurgency that took place in the south). In other words, the LTTE is advancing a two pronged strategy of military strength and building its civic administrative systems. The latter is particularly strengthened by the relief measures needed for its tsunami affected people given the GoSL’s much stretched public administration systems which also have to deliver tsunami relief in the south. It also means the LTTE’s military wing, besides being focused on defending its territory and launching guerrilla attacks in government areas, will now need to protect its emerging civic infrastructure systems. This makes peace talks inevitable for both sides so that goodwill can begin to supersede military might in protecting civic assets. What still remains outstanding is the whole question of international recognition which aside from its geopolitical-legal complexity is particularly important to attract soft lending rates from bi-lateral and multilateral lenders for the reconstruction and modernisation of the war-torn areas. Such lending is available only to sovereign countries, and where constitutionally approved to its devolved units. Whilst so far neither secession nor meaningful devolution has happened, a notable question is whether the tsunami after-effect could play a role in evidence of the inadequacy of the GoSL to fairly allocate relief and reconstruction to the Tamil people of the north and the east. Whilst the international safety net orchestrated by the GoSL worked well in pre-tsunami times, the variety imposed by the humanitarian tug to help those suffering from natural disasters plays a vastly different tune to that caused by man-designed war games. Notes 1. Addressed housing for internally displaced war refugees, withdrawal/relocation of high security zones, reconstruction of essential infrastructure, weapons surrender, etc. 2. United National Front – a coalition led by the United National Party (UNP) replaced the People’s Alliance (PA) coalition government as led by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). 3. Notably the MOU on the cessation of hostilities between the GoSL and the LTTE and the deproscription of the LTTE by the parliament of Sri Lanka. 4. www.ltteps.org/mainpages/images/2004/10/pr210403.pdf (accessed 29 March 2005). 5. www.cybsoc.org/ross.htm (accessed 7 March 2005). 6. One minister per main religion – Buddha Sanna (for Buddhism), Hindu affairs (sometimes includes the Tamil language portfolio), Muslim affairs, Christian affairs. 7. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4076561.stm (accessed 7 March 2005). 8. Done in an era prior to war, where Tamil political parties entered into pre-election agreements (pacts) with prospective parliamentary winners but which were all abrogated once elected to government. 9. By 1815 the British reigned over the whole island. In 1833, the English language was made the language of the island. In 1948, independence is gained under dominion status and in 1956, the official language was changed to Sinhala thus disenfranchising the “non-Sinhala language competent” population. Later the Tamil language (Special Provisions) Act of 1958 was passed and in 1978, the 13th amendment to the constitution introduced Tamil as an official language and English as the link language.

References Beer, S. (1979), Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, New York, NY. Beer, S. (1984), “The viable system model: its provenance, development, methodology and pathology”, Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 35 No. 1. Gharajedaghi, J. (2002), Systems Thinking, Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford. Maturana, H.R. (1980), “Man and society”, in Benseler, F. et al. (Eds), Autopoiesis, Communication and Society, Campus Verlag, Frankfurt, pp. 11-31. Maturana, H.R. (2002), “Autopoiesis, structural coupling and cognition: a history of these and other notions in the biology of cognition”, Cybernetics & Human Knowing, Vol. 9 Nos 3-4, pp. 35-54. Stokes, P.A. (2004), The Viable Organization of Society: Societal Correlates of the VSM, available at: www.metaphorum.org (accessed May 2005). About the authors Leonie Solomons joined the University of Sunderland, UK from the corporate sector in Australia where she worked for the EDS Australia as Project Manager catering for large bank technology conversion projects. Prior to that, she worked for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in various positions leading to Strategic Planner addressing disaster recovery planning for its banking driven computer installations. This work led to the recognition of the Bank’s strategic weakness in the cultivation of its diverse computer skill set requirements and Leonie was appointed to head the Human Resources – Technology Team. She is currently in her final year of PhD research devoted to cybernetically diagnosing the chronic crisis issues that beset Sri Lanka, her country of birth. Alfredo Moscardini works at the University of Sunderland in the North of England. He is an applied mathematician by training but did his PhD in interactive computing for Finaite Element Analysis before changing to mathematical modelling. Over the past ten years, his field of research has evolved to Systems Thinking and especially the work of Stafford Beer. He is currently spreading these ideas to Russia, Egypt and Ukraine.

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Department of Sociology, University College Dublin, Belfield, Ireland Abstract Purpose – To establish the concept of identity as the bridging concept of cybernetics and sociology. Design/methodology/approach – The approach is a pincers movement. On the one hand, it is argued that there has been a move towards an identity society; identity is a foundational concept for an understanding of contemporary society. On the other hand, the paper argues that in the work of Beer, identity became the key to his proposal that the VSM is the optimal form of variety management in a social system. The study is based on an extension and application of Finalizierungstheorie to the problem. Findings – Identity is the key concept for the articulation of cybernetics and sociology. There has been a singular failure to apply cybernetic ideas to sociological materials in a manner that has met with the approval and satisfaction of the sociological community. Beer’s formulation of the identity phenomenon and its extrapolation in the social sphere proposes a solution to this long-standing problem. Practical implications – The approach allows for a broad ranging multi-level research programme in sociological cybernetics to be formulated and pursued in a manner congenial to the accumulation of a substantial knowledge base ranging from micro- to macro-issues. Originality/value – This paper presents a unique synthesis of cybernetics and sociology building on and extending the work of Beer in the field of managerial cybernetics. Keywords Cybernetics, Sociology Paper type Conceptual paper

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 124-147 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640272

It is fair to say that the social sciences have been infatuated with the notion of identity in recent years. I think the potential and future of the concept of identity lies with cybernetics. Cybernetics also needs the concept of identity. In fact, I wish to argue that identity provides the point of articulation for cybernetics and the social sciences. It is remarkable to note just how little impact cybernetics has had on the social sciences, and sociology in particular (Geyer and van der Zouwen, 1996). Indeed, if anything there is a stance of skepticism if not downright hostility towards cybernetics and systems thinking in this discipline (Gouldner, 1971; Hirst, 1975; Lilienfeld, 1975, 1978; MacRae, 1951). In hindsight, it seems that there were two problems applying cybernetics to the social realm. One was a conceptual problem – how exactly do you apply the insights and ideas of cybernetics to social science? The other was a matter of the “structural coupling” of a cybernetic sociology to the historical conditions of society. I want to propose that both problems have now been overcome, and that the concept of identity holds the key to the solution to both. In relation to the first, I wish to argue that in this sense, the concept of identity is intrinsically a cybernetic one, which describes both a process and a structure and that Beer’s work gives us the conceptual infrastructure necessary to unpack the potential of the concept of identity as a foundational concept of social science. Second, it has now become possible to apply these insights and ideas because society has become an identity society. In order to provide a context for the later discussion, I will deal with this latter phenomenon to start with.

The coming of the identity society Survival is an empirical matter; for human beings, however, viability has been a project of human groups since the hominid hunter-gatherers roamed the earth. With human beings group life has always been primary – group life represents our species being (Dalal, 1998). As a historical imperative, the requirement for viability emerged from the power struggle between competitively organized contiguous social groups. Human beings have always lived within the supportive framework of what Norbert Elias calls a survival unit. Both Schmookler and Elias have dwelt on how the competitive struggle between survival units and the increasing integration of smaller units into units of greater size and complexity has been the engine of history. Our ability to coordinate behaviour and to act as a group has played a decisive part in human evolution (Masters, 1983). In other words, the adaptation of technologies of control, either technological or in terms of social organization, have been a central factor in allowing societies to become more and more complex under relatively centralised direction and control (Whitney-Smith, 1991). This is evidenced by the fact that, since the dawn of history, civilised societies have grown ever larger, ever more complex, and ever more effectively controlled by a central ruling part. The story is not one of continuous uninterrupted growth, however, far from it. Human history is the story of the rise and decline of civilizations. In counterpoint to the trend towards the monopolization of power, Elias tells us that there has been a countervailing pull in the direction of de-monopolization. This is occasioned in consequence of the leakage of power and authority through the ranks of a hierarchical system of rule. The need to devolve decision-making in complex environments serves to dissolve the integrity of centralised corporate power (Elias, 2000). In addition, according to Tainter, civilizations gradually become too complex for the level and degree of controllability that they have acquired through their technologies and modes of social organization (Tainter, 1988, 1995). As societies become so complex that they approach this limit they begin to experience what Beniger (1986) calls a “control crisis”. At this point societies and civilizations will begin to decline and perhaps collapse altogether. The earth is littered with the remains of defunct civilizations. Modern societies have certainly become large, centralised and complex. Our technologies of control have grown apace (Yates, 1989) but are they adequate? Apparently they are not, given the number and nature of recent declarations that western societies have entered a phase of “governance crisis” (Della Salla, 2001; deSenarclens, 1998; Downes, 1998; He´ritier, 2001; Kooiman, 1993, 2000, 2001; Mayntz, 1998; Rhodes, 1996, 1997; Rosenau, 1980; Rosenau and Czempiel, 1992). The requirements for control in a society are not abstract and disembodied, but arise in and are shaped by a special socio-historical conjuncture governed by a power ratio between the principal organized social groups. Effective control cannot be a realistic goal without an appreciation of this conjuncture and of the control agenda that it proposes and to whom. Historical increase in societal complexity One remarkable development that is rarely adverted to in the social science literature is the increase in societal complexity that has been concomitant with the rise of modern societies. It is as though social scientists do not understand this phenomenon, or even know how to think about it meaningfully (La Porte, 1975; Luhmann, 1982). Complexity

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is, however, an inaugural topic for cybernetic discourse (Beer, 1970a, b; Weaver, 1948; La Porte, 1975; Luhmann, 1985)[1]. According to Beer, the shift from the vertical to the horizontal in relationships is responsible for the enormous increase in social complexity that characterises our era He maintains that for many centuries, horizontal linkages were not very important for the vast preponderance of human beings, except of course for the aristocracy for whom the ability to form coalitions and cement alliances was crucial for survival. The organizational quantum, a village in a feudal society, the subsidiary of a firm, a ward of a city, and so on, obeyed the law upwards and administered the law downwards. What the cousins were doing, which is to say organizational quanta at the same hierarchic level, was really of no concern (Beer, 1975, p. 30).

He claims that “perhaps the major organizational issue today could be called horizontal relevance”. Society has undergone an expansion, which has caused the quanta carefully separated by the stereotype to collide in almost every dimension we can nominate. Social units are no longer separate: they share common boundaries, which the inhabitants freely cross. . . . Above all, technological change – in communication, computation, and the ability to travel – has affected the family tree stereotype of organization to the point where the boundaries it seeks to maintain can be maintained no longer (Beer, 1975, p. 30).

Beer describes the situation of one of loss of authority and hence simplicity of control. Just at the moment when technology has unleashed such potent mathematical forces of interaction in the human society, society has for other reasons abandoned most of the restraints on variety it already had (Beer, 1975, p. 33).

He cites the example the growth in complexity of the tax code. The general levy is a low variety tax, and therefore, easy to administer. Once we take account of individual circumstances, the variety goes up. Trying to match this variety, more and more regulations are introduced – until it is doubtful whether anyone can work out what is happening. A similar situation exists for the police, and even for less obvious social regulators existing within education, health, and social welfare (Beer, 1975, p. 34).

How can we best characterise the process of increased complexification and its immediate effects? What was its sociological manifestation and consequences? Increased individualization, with a concomitant rise in subjectivism and identity was, I propose, the principal way in which complexification was experienced. As a result of individualism, the world became not just a vastly more complex place for those who would impose their will on others, but also for those individuals themselves for whom complexity represented an obstacle to simple and effective action. This was because individualism was one side of a complementary process of differentiation and of increasing interdependence between people. Increasing autonomy had the paradoxical consequences of increased level of connectedness. Elias eloquently describes the basic experience of social life in the modern era, which provides the soil for the germination and growth of a scientific sociology. More and more groups and with them more and more individuals, tend to become dependant on each other for their security and the satisfaction of their needs in ways which for the greater part, surpass the comprehension of those involved. It is as if first thousands, then

millions, then more and more millions walked through this world, their hands and feet chained together by invisible ties. No one is in charge. No one stands outside. Some want to go this, others that way. They fall upon each other and vanquishing or defeated still remain chained to each other. No one can regulate the movements of the whole unless a great part of them are able to understand, to see as it were, from outside, the whole patterns they form together. And they are not able to visualize themselves as part of these larger patterns because being hemmed in and moved uncomprehendingly hither and thither in ways none of them intended, they cannot help being preoccupied with the urgent, narrow and parochial problems which each of them has to face. They can only look at whatever happens to them from their narrow location within the system. They are too deeply involved to look at themselves from without. Thus what is formed of nothing but human beings acts upon each of them, and is experienced by many as an alien external force not unlike the forces of nature (Elias, 1956, p. 232).

The Diminution of requisite hierarchy According to Aulin, the decisive factor behind these developments, making it possible to relax social hierarchy is the growth of regulatory ability due to an increase in self-regulation implied in increasingly productive forces. He writes: As long as improvement of the tools of production implies more automation, and a higher level of education means increased productivity, this factor is identical with economic growth. . . . absolute power and strict social hierarchy backed by conditioning of the truth serves the survival of human population only at a low level of development of productive forces (Aulin, 1982, p. 29).

Western societies have undergone a process whereby crude, disciplinary, top-down controls have given way to more participative, democratic, and distributive control in which more and more of society gets to have a say. This decline of strict class-society, Aulin tell us, began in Europe with the collapse of the Roman slave-society. The feudal social order, which after some chaotic centuries began to take shape in Western Europe, represented the beginning of a relaxation of social hierarchy. This went hand in hand with a process whereby the enormous economic potential of the lower social classes were gradually released, and began to speed up social progress toward greater self-steering and emancipation (Aulin, 1982, 1986, p. 138). If anything it was the development and dissemination throughout European and later on American societies of new technologies of control as well as new forms of social organization that permitted self-regulation to take such a strong hold (Beniger, 1986, 1990; Whitney-Smith, 1991). Aulin explains this process cybernetically by reference to what he calls the law of requisite hierarchy. Self-steering and hierarchy are opposite if reciprocal notions. The more hierarchy there is in the structure of a dynamic system the less there can be self-steering. Greater self-steering generally requires lesser hierarchy. In the history of human civilizations, initially, it is the aristocratic elites who define their own importance and for whose sake the survival unit exists. Gradually and by virtue of the growing dependence of elite groups upon them, members of the lower orders are co-opted in alliances against other elite groups (Elias, 2000). Such a process, the formation of vertical alliances (Powelson, 1994) extends the range of numbers of people who identify with the survival unit of the state and who feel as though they have a stake in it. All the time, power ratios between the top layers and intermediate to lower layers are being attenuated in a process that Elias calls “functional democratisation” (Elias, 2000).

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Aulin suggests that with increasing self-steering and increasing variability of social structures endogenous causality will grow in significance. He writes that: The march of events in a human society will be ever more based on the deliberate decisions of its members. Counter to the expectations of most futurologists, increasing progress thus means decreasing predictability. With advancing self-steering in society the future can be less and less foretold by the past. Life becomes ever more like an intellectual adventure and ever less like a military or an economic one (Aulin, 1982, p. 144)[2].

Identity and individualization All of these changes manifest themselves as different facets of a single societal phenomenon: identity and identification. The identity society has now replaced the society of the masses, although many do not yet realise it (Glasser, 1976). Identity has become so central to the experience of our societies that it has become an indispensable explanatory concept of social action and social forms in these societies. So-called hyper self-reflexivity in no more that the identity phase of the self-recognition of the self (Beck et al., 1994). This is the state of society characterised by post-modernism. In an identity society, identity and complexity emerge as dancing partners. As the possibilities for getting action become stymied under existing arrangements, action gets backed up down the side-alleys and sideshows of identity. When craftsmen formed guilds in the medieval cities they began to take on, assert and defend completely new forms of identity that demanded recognition and respect from others. The rise of the bourgeois class and their forms of association similarly brought forth new forms of identity and recognition. The growth in the numbers of types of identities has lead to a great complexification of society. An identity, therefore, is a self-aware locus of social recognition and is the only source of social action in society. Burke (1991) defines identity as: . . . a sense of meanings applied to the self in a social role or situation defining what it means to be who one is.

And White (1992, p. 6) characterises identity as follows: . . . identity is any source of action not explicable from biophysical regularities, and to which observers can attribute meaning.

And if, for Bateson (1973), identity was a matter of the ongoing truth of certain descriptive propositions, then the process of maintaining the truth of such descriptive propositions was the identity process itself. All social entities exist by virtue of their being an identity. Identities are the social actors in society. To have an identity is to be recognised. Identities are constructed and maintained through the activities of control, which in themselves are secured through circuits and networks of communication. The purpose and raison d’eˆtre of any identity is to maintain its viability, i.e. to maintain its capacity for autonomous existence. The identity project is animated by the desire for recognition and control. This was threatened by the rising tide of complexification. The response as we shall see was to build an organizational layer in society that enabled better control chances. Bureaucracy was the preferred form of organization.

Contemporary struggles between social groups are all marked by these characteristics. The identity society that is taking place around us is based on the eclipse of contention based on purely material interests alone (Fukuyama, 1999). Among the factors responsible for the current crisis of government Jessop (1995) mentions the:

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. . . eruption of identity politics and new social movements which threaten established forms of social and political domination.

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Organizations – the medium of control The rise of a complex society challenged people to regain control; at all levels. Organizing was the key. This is because control becomes transmogrified into organizing whenever the control efforts of three or more people become intertwined. For our present purposes it will suffice to define organizing as involving the co-ordination of the discrete control efforts of two or more individuals and their concertation[3] in the pursuit of a common project[4]. In other words, it involves the concertation and articulation of collective perceptions. Weick (1995) has called this a process of “sense making” (Daft and Weick, 1984). Organizing is necessary whenever we are faced with complex tasks. A complex task is one that requires the sustained and repeated co-ordination of the interdependent efforts of two or more people to accomplish. Complex tasks are not completed in a spontaneous moment of simultaneity, but require a commitment from participants to return to the site of endeavour and to repeat their actions in concertation with others until the task is completed. The advantage of organization is that it confers both control and economic benefits. Organizing gives the possibility of effective control over a complex and uncertain environment because it both reduces environmental variety and at the same time it generates variety of adaptive response so that new and complex tasks can be successfully accomplished. It confers economic benefits through the synergy that it generates, an emergent product of the functional differentiation of tasks that is a feature of all organizations (Corning, 1971, 1983, 1996). That complexity emerges from our relationship and interaction with an environment[5] is a point that has been reiterated by many authors. Luhmann (1993, p. 530), for instance, has argued that: . . . The environment must be ordered in some way because systems are forced to reduce complexity . . . There is no point-for-point correlation between a system and its environment. A system can never have sufficient variety to match in a point-for-point fashion the possible states an environment might exhibit. The environment is much more complex. It, therefore, requires a selective process and we must question what type of organized selection is possible given these circumstances.

And Weick has explicitly modelled the organizing process as essentially one in which equivocality of input is metabolised into the organization by means of interlocked cycles of assembly rules and double interacts. The basic raw materials on which organizations operate are informational inputs that are ambiguous, uncertain, and equivocal. Whether the information is embedded in tangible raw materials, recalcitrant customers, assigned tasks, or union demands, there are many

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possibilities or sets of outcomes that might occur. Organizing serves to narrow the range of possibilities, to reduce the number of “might occurs”. The activities of organizing are directed toward the establishment of a workable level of certainty. An organization attempts to transform equivocal information into a degree of unequivocality with which it can work and to which it is accustomed (Weick, 1979, p. 16).

In this view, environmental uncertainty is not just a problem to be dealt with but it is a positive resource, the quintessential input into the organizing process from which organizations are constructed. For Meyer, bureaucratisation itself is a direct outcome of the processing of environmental uncertainty. The sources of bureaucratic growth are more likely to lie in the capacity of organizations to order, make sense of, and otherwise rationalize complex environments than in their capacity to perform efficiently (Meyer, 1990, p. 161).

Meyer’s argument is that: Bureaucratic growth is the outcome of continuous growth of formal organization, which is understood as a reasonable and rational response to uncertainties arising externally.

So crucial to the whole point of organizations is this process that Ahrne has proffered definitions of both organizations and the organizing process in precisely these terms. Organizing is a method of making human activities permanent in order to increase control over uncertain environments. Organizations detest uncertainty (Ahrne, 1990, p. 36).

And, Organizations are arrangements to make permanent, coordinate and control aspects of human behaviour in order to try to ensure mastery over uncertain environments (Ahrne, 1990, p. 51).

The key point here is that organizing comes about as a consequence of and means whereby people get better control over complex tasks in uncertain and unpredictable environments. It is of no surprise to be told, therefore, that the rise of organizations is the major but neglected phenomenon of our time (Coleman, 1991; Collins, 1975; Drucker, 1993). The fundamental units of society are organizations and not individual people. According to Ahrne (1994, p. 87): One cannot understand human action without relating it to an organizational context.

And, . . . people encounter society through their organizational affiliations, and the positions they have in organizations (Ahrne, 1994, p. 114).

Of crucial significance is that fact that organizational affiliation confers identity. Social individuality or identity is chiefly a combination and construction of previous and present organizational affiliations: family background, citizenship, grades from school, previous and present employments, marital status (Scott and Meyer, 1987). In an organizational society interests and opinions have to be socially organised in order to be articulated, expressed, and communicated to the society. It is from this that NGOs get their salience for contemporary social developments. Only complex societies with high levels of coordination and control are capable of supporting a culture that

valorizes the individual. The rise to power of the organized individual completes the picture. This brings to an end the mass society of Fordist-based managerial capitalism and inaugurates the identity society (Glasser, 1976; Mitchell, 2002; Zuboff and Maxmin, 2003). Modern complex societies consequently constitute a dependent hierarchy of recursively organized identities: state, organizations and individuals (Figure 1).

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Identity as a cybernetic construct and project I believe that Beer gave us the basis of a theory not of social entities but of social identities. The key difference is the reflexive nature of human reality. Beer is universally credited with being the founder of managerial cybernetics (Beer, 1966, 1967, 1970a, b, 1972, 1979). Beer, like all who are faced with the problematic of application, developed a framework, structure and concepts that allowed him to “apply” cybernetic ideas to a realm of activity that was decidedly different from the realms of engineering, biology, and mathematics that first generated cybernetics as a fundamental theory. In his treatise, Heart of Enterprise, Beer is careful to make a distinction between the contributions made by engineering cybernetics and the tasks of managerial cybernetics. The discoveries made by control engineers are of course used: they have understood the scientific rules of regulation. Nonetheless, this is a management book; no attempt is made to teach engineering. Why not? Because, although the principles are inescapable, the whole world of the manager is different from that of the engineer. This is because variety proliferates for the manager, and cannot be tamed by reducing the structure of the system to agreed parameters. Therefore, the management cybernetician must deploy the principles in a different way, to address a different problem (Beer, 1979, p. 4) – my emphasis.

Although both engineering and management employ the concept of feedback, in management both “adjuster organisers” and “hierarchy” play important roles that are not part of the engineering approach. Furthermore, the idea of the “management unit” has no correlate in the engineering science of control. In other words, Beer knew that to

Figure 1. The dependent hierarchy of society

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produce an effective and useful cybernetics of management he would have to defend the autonomous cognitive claims of management science and build a conceptual scaffold or bridge from the fundamental theory to management science. This he did with his Viable System Model (VSM) (Espejo and Harnden, 1989), the requirements of which are not given in the classic works of cybernetic theory, but which Beer constructed for his purposes[6]. In doing so Beer re-casts the definition of cybernetics for the human sciences as the science of effective organization[7]. In fact, the position that I will seek to develop throughout this work is that: The concept of identity is the sociologically appropriate form of the fundamental phenomenon and theoretical notions of communication and control, the inaugural concepts of the science of cybernetics (Ashby, 1964)[8].

What is little appreciated, even by Beer (1966) himself, is what Beer did was no different from what many scientists in different disciplines had to do in order to apply fundamental “theoretical” laws to more phenomenal domains to which they were judged to be relevant in principle but which in practice seemed to elude easy and fruitful application. The disciplines of acoustics and fluid dynamics come to mind. There are many such cases. The process has been called “finalization” or the purposeful development of science (Bo¨hme et al., 1976; Leeming, 1997; Scha¨fer, 1983; Stokes, 2003; Weingart, 1997). Beer was exercised by the ability of living and human systems to maintain a relatively autonomous existence in an uncertain environment (Espejo and Harnden, 1989). However, in the human world survival is not merely a question of physical endurance (Bauman, 1992). It is essentially and above all a question of the viability of identity. As Beer says, the goal of survival is different from other goals. It is a purpose that closes in on itself; it is a matter of preserving identity (Beer, 1979, p. 114).

He elaborates: A viable system is one sustaining the capability for independent existence as a recognizable identity. Thus a person is a viable system, and so is a firm. In particular, . . . the institutions that humanity has devised to express the will of the people (from government departments and social services) are supposedly viable systems. They do not work at all well, and so their future viability is in question (Beer, 1983, p. 807).

A viable system then is a system that maintains its identity, whatever that is. A very remarkable property of the viable system [is] that it retains its identity. The enterprise may last for hundreds of years, changing all of its components parts many times, and assimilating many kinds of change on the way – and yet it is recognisably itself. . . . the primary characteristic of a viable system is not the power of self-reproduction but of self-production. It is continuously in business to produce itself, to be what it is, to preserve identity (Beer, 1979, p. 277).

The ability to maintain a separate existence in this sense does not mean to exist separately from others and one’s environment, but rather to be able to maintain oneself as a distinct identity even when one is embedded in an environment consisting of interdependent networks of human beings. In fact, the more closely

one is bound up with others the more necessary it may be to maintain oneself as a separate identity in order to avoid engulfment (Scheff, 1990, 1997). It is a conceit of autopoietic theory to assert that all systems are specified by an observer (Maturana and Varela, 1980, 1992). Not all systems are specified by observers, however. Many have a habit of imposing themselves on others, independent of whether observers credit their existence or not. If this is true of tigers and other predators it is especially true of those systems we call identities (Beer, 1979, pp. 8-10). Identities are self-aware systems that impose their own meanings and purposes on observers. Of all the observers of that viable system called the enterprise, the most significant is inevitably itself. This is because of the reflexive nature of the affirmation of identity. The enterprise spends a great deal of its effort in this preoccupation; and if we bring Ashby’s Law to bear on the need for a viable system to do just that, we can see why. If a certain variety is generated in the pursuit of “let’s go” purposes, then an equivalent variety must be devoted to self-maintenance: otherwise the system is going to disintegrate . . . Meanwhile, however, the enterprise is telling not only itself, but also everyone else, that it exists (Beer, 1979, p. 114).

What other features characterise a viable system? A viable system is recursive. It is intrinsically scalar in that it replicates itself in self-similar patterns and in a nested manner at all levels of organization. It is essentially embedded in an environment, which is the source of its challenge to acquire “requisite” variety. It respects the autonomy of the parts that make it up, with one proviso that is agreed by all: that restraints on autonomy shall be computable functions of the purposes of the system and no more than this. Such purposes are given in the organization’s self-identity. Furthermore, a viable system provides a means for the co-ordination of the interactions of the level one autonomous units so as to avoid oscillatory behaviours among and between them. It provides a further means of systemic cohesion by seeking to achieve synergies among the unit elements. It does this through a process of resource bargaining and of intervening to maintain the integrity of the whole if threatened. It is also at this level that a certain selective bias is evident (reflected in resource bargaining outcomes) – activities more in accord with the identity of the system as a whole are typically favoured over those that do not. Engulfment and isolation are both extremes on the continuum of possible outcomes here. Up to this point, the system has been inwardly focused on issues of “here and now” cohesion and integration. However, any viable form of organization must also be oriented to the two major environments in which it is embedded: its contemporaneous environment of stakeholders and others as well is its future environment. The tension between the “here and now” focus and the “there and then” focus must be managed. They are so done under the sign of identity that provides the reference standard for all-inclusive infra-level regulation. The question must now be posed: does this model of viable organization contain within itself sufficient variety such that all forms of social organization can be mapped onto it? The answer is yes. Not only is a viable system designed to contain the structured antinomies of social life, but also it is designed in such as way that each portion of the model absorbs the variety disposed by the others. It does this not as a closed system but as an open negentropic, dissipative system. “All subsystems of a viable system control each other” (Beer, 1979, p. 362).

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All identities are composites, then; they consist of sets of inter-related parts. This goes as much for the organization of the brain and consciousness itself (Beer, 1972; Dennett, 1996; Edelman, 1992) as it does for the identities of social groups and whole societies. In other words, this involves an understanding of a “whole” as being constituted by the interaction of parts and not as some sort of supernatural entity that exists irrespective of what happens between its components (Bateson, 1973; Elias, 1978). A specific pattern of inter-relationship of parts constitutes their enduring structure or organization and that sustains the viability of identity. It is to a detailed discussion of this pattern that I now turn to elucidate the structural dynamics of identity. Identity is the product of the interactions of different levels of a composite agent. These layers can be designated as follows: . enactive . pattern . coherence and integration of enactive and pattern layers (homeostasis) . anticipatory . self-reference and integration of homeostatic and anticipatory layers I will start at the bottom layer, the level of enactment (Table I). Level 1 – enactment This level consists of the units that produce the system in question: they are the operational elements, each plausible as behavioural elements in their own right. As such, within an over-arching framework of identity they constitute the indexical sub-identities that represent us contextually from situation to situation. Plausible as they are each in their own setting they are composite units in a larger system. As operational elements they seek autonomy, but this can only be achieved within the framework of the system in which they participate as members. It is a condition of existence for the operational element that it subsists within a larger whole, containing other elements (Beer, 1979, p. 146).

There is a balance to be struck, therefore, between freedom and constraint: this is a computable function of systemic purpose (Beer, 1979, p. 158)[9]. At any moment, maintains Beer, there are two dimensions of constraint at work on the ensemble of operational elements. If we visualize one as coming to bear on the horizontal axis involving peer relations and affecting performance issues, we can visualize the other on a vertical axis as involving questions of the cohesion or integration of the entire system. This level encompasses, therefore, the elements to be controlled in any composite system. Level one is where the various stakeholders to an identity interact with that identity. This is the level of enacted identity. This is also the level of metonymy, where the part actions of each of the action units are construed as standing in some way for the whole, or a nested series of wholes in a recursive structure. It is where the work of identity starts. Defining the identity for an organization implies defining the primary activities of the organization (Espejo and Harnden, 1989, p. 89).

R2 1

Individuals engaged in the perceptual control of their own behaviours and projects in environments which they enact with others (Powers, 1973)

Level of recursion Enactment – S1

(continued)

The individuals sense of The ability to anticipate the ever more remote and him or her-self: identity. ramified consequences of Me-myself one’s behaviour; self-restraining behaviour, e.g. the civilizing process (Elias, 2000). This is the realm of imagination and of the contemplation of possible future identities

Stabilisation of the personality system and the adaptation of the individual’s drive economy with the structure and horizon of constraints and opportunities for action. Socialization and the social construction of the individual generally through processing by social institutions, e.g. schooling. Marcuse’s (1968) example of the reduction to the metric of calculability of the legitimate motivations of individuals

Protocols and norms for communication and interaction as given in language and the performative and pragmatic aspects of communication and interaction, i.e. culture (Bateson, 1973)

Closure – S5

Anticipation – S4

Homeostasis – S3

Pattern – S2

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Table I. The structure of Governance in society as a viable identity

Table I.

Rþ 1

R0

Organizations constructing and maintaining their identities though boundary interactions with complex environments; the achievement of complex projects and the production of use-values for individuals and other organizations (Ahrne, 1990, 1994) State-societies: maintaining themselves as viable identities through the production of real collective use-values, e.g. education, transport, energy, water, sanitary services, infrastructure, etc. Sets of practices developed by the service class and underwritten by the state: doctors, accountants, engineers, e.g. standards of all kinds

?x Resource bargaining y? by ministries of state with organizations (institutions) and individuals

Homeostasis – S3

Foreign affairs and diplomacy; all state planning, studies and projections regarding the future. Applied social science

Anticipation – S4 ?x y? Similar process at the level Process of selection Interactional ethos and of organizations, e.g. whereby some norms between corporate social organizations and between organizational forms responsibility organizations and people; and practices become institutionalised by the not only anti-oscillatory measures but reduction of state transaction costs, and build-up of trust, social capital, business culture, e.g. HR and PR

Pattern – S2

Parliament; the head of state; symbols of national identity, e.g. flag and emblems

The board and the corporate identity of the organization

Closure – S5

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Level of recursion Enactment – S1

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The tendency here is towards maximum autonomy of action within the constraints of the integrity of the whole from which they derive their own sub-identity. Beer (1979, p. 344) maintains, that: System One . . . should have its full variety available to manage, accepting only the constraint that cohesion must be maintained within the purposes of the viable system.

In other words, there is a constant tension balance between the “I” and the “we” elements of identity, in which engulfment is the outcome at one extreme and alienation the outcome at the other (Scheff, 1990). In terms of human society, level one operational elements will be quite different depending on the level of recursion involved. For instance, at the level of the individual, they will consist of the various coherent packages of behaviour that we put out in every social situation which define who we are there and then (Powers, 1973). At the level of a human society the level one operational elements are all the varieties of social organization that dwell within it (Ahrne, 1990, 1994). For organizations, at the median level of recursion, they are the operational departments that actually carry out the work that produces and hence defines the organization. If we take it that both individuals and organizations function as identities at different levels of recursion, then the operational elements constitute the level of sub-identities that have to be woven into a coherent narrative of the systemic meta identity (Czarniawska, 1997; Shotter and Gergen, 1989) (Table I). Beer often remarked that the purpose of any system is what it does. What it does is done at level one. Levels 2-5 – the metasystem All levels above level 1 belong to the metasystem. The metasystem exists exclusively to service the ensemble of operational elements as a going systemic concern under identity. To this end it performs a number of distinct functions: . To avert conflict, competition, duplication, and oscillatory behaviour generally between the operational elements. This is the task of Level 2 of the metasystem. . To engage in cohesion management, secure the vehicle in the here and now and to conduct resource bargaining between the various operational elements. Occasionally, a special function is to conduct spot audits of the operational level. This distinct set of tasks is the responsibility of level 3. . To engage with the environment and to anticipate and create future possibilities. This takes place on level 4. . To secure the closure of systemic meta identity and to maintain the integrity of this meta-identity through managing the transition of identity from the “here and now” into the “there and then”. Level 2 – pattern Meta-identity is enacted through the pattern of relatedness of the sub-identities that constitute it. It is this level that manages potential conflicts between the semi-autonomous units of level 1. It choreographs their interactions so as to eliminate tension and conflict. Level 2 may be characterised as the personality layer of identity. Pattern is a form of constraint on the horizontal axis.

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Level 2 pattern making between identities in human societies takes the form of culture, of how things are routinely done (Bateson, 1980; Stokes, 2003; Volk, 1995). Level 3 – integration Vertical constraint begins with level 3, which is concerned with systemic cohesion and internal regulation. It is the level of homeostasis[10]. Firmly embedded in the here and now, the integration level engages in the real-time control of actual events. This level achieves the ongoing cohesion and integration of the composite agent as a matter of practical accomplishment. It also manages the resource bargaining of the composite unit with level 1 operational elements: who gets what resources from the common pool and how much, who contributes what and how much. It is also possessed of the power of executive action in times of emergency. Level 3 * engages in periodic “emergency” audits of level 1 activities. Level 3 monitors and controls the activities of the relatively autonomous units of level 1 by means of an embedded system called an identity regulation network (IRN) (Beer, 1979, p. 428). The IRN operates on signals from the organization regarding key variables. It is alerted to activities on the enacted level that pose a threat to identity as currently conceived. It intervenes principally by re-negotiating the reference levels of the level 1 units themselves rather than engaging in any direct material intervention at the level of overt behaviour[11]. Level 3 has discretion over what activities at level 1 may be considered as constituting the system in question (Beer, 1979, p. 254). To this extent, it regulates the diversity of identities at level 1. It is the guardian of the synchronic identity of the metasystem. It determines what forms of teleonomy are considered valid and legitimate within the context of the purposes of the system as a whole. Level 3 is oriented to the ongoing task of securing the operational integrity of the survival vehicle or unit at all times. Level 3 is easily enough discerned in the individual and in organizations and state-societies. At the level of human society level 3 is expressed though the phenomenon of institutionalisation, the recursive application of cultural selection to organizations. Because it is the managerial fulcrum of the viable organization it is the seat of the “chief executive”, however, that function may be conceived (Beer, 1979, p. 263). For instance in state societies, the institutional process crucially embraces departments of government and agencies of state (Beer, 1989, 1994)[12]. In this way, Levels 2 and 3 regulate the pattern and type of teleonomy of level 1 operational elements. The two levels, in particular, regulate the economy of teleonomy of the system in focus – as we shall see, level 2 operates by means of cultural patterns and is augmented by level 3, which operates by means of the process of institutionalisation. The realm of institutionalisation is the realm of self-recognition of society. This is typically the realm that is reflected in the media. It reduces enormously the complexity of what official society has to deal with. It is an imaginary realm in that it excludes the grey area, the areas of illegitimate practices and “other” – identities, the bohemians, the poor, the marginalised – all those from whom the halo of institutional recognition has been withheld. This is why so many “problems” in society do not make it onto the official agenda for action – they do not “officially” exist. However, because the overall process is that of selection this area is also a source for the selection of new practices and the legitimation of new ways of doing things:

witness the way jazz music came from the depth of scandal to being a highly “institutionalised” musical form the late-twentieth century western cultural elites. Level 4 – anticipation Level 4 is a complex level engaging as it does with the environment and the future. Although the system’s operational identity is enacted at level 1 and 4’s activities also have a bearing on this question because of its engagement with the environment. According to Beer (1979, p. 258), . . . systems three and four should exhibit themselves to each other, in a continuous mode, and absorb each other’s variety.

Goal-seeking by definition, due to its forward-looking nature involves anticipatory behaviour (Rosen, 1985). Through imagination we envisage the completion of the very act we are about to embark upon (Shibutani, 1961). Furthermore, we anticipate the responses of others whenever we engage in social action and pitch our behaviour accordingly to take these reactions into account (Mead and Morris, 1974). Anticipation is also a form of learning II (Argyris) or deutero-learning (Bateson) according to which we anticipate patterns of events by projecting forward into the future. In this way, we overcome the errors of over-learning from past experiences by anticipating that things could happen that we have not had to deal with before. It is a form of learning that transcends the limitation of ordinary learning (from experience) (Bateson, 1973) or learning I (Argyris and Scho¨n, 1995). Vickers (1972, p. 158) points to the role of anticipation in human affairs. Firstly, by being able to anticipate outcomes of causal series of action it is not necessary to subject ourselves to the tit-for-tat of action and reaction and the possible deleterious outcomes. Systems thinking can provide us with possible “forms of anticipation”. Secondly, by being able to anticipate deleterious outcomes it is possible to circumscribe the deleterious escalation of inter-actions. This is otherwise known as “regulation”.

Both of these capacities derive from our ability to anticipate with high certainty the outcomes of cycles of action and reaction. They form part of our interactional economy whereby certain outcomes are either facilitated or inhibited through the expenditure of minima quanta of effort. Nor is anticipation limited to the nearly imminent. Within increasing interdependence through interconnected networks, in view of the future possible outcomes of our actions, comes the necessity for heightened levels of control over our own behaviour. It is important, therefore, to be able to anticipate even rather remote consequences of our behaviour (Elias, 2000). Increasingly, at the level of social organization business firms are beginning to re-own the externalities of their business practices through such recognition. This is the rationale for the current push for corporate social responsibility (Willmott, 2001; Zadek, 2001). It is an extension of Elias’s idea of a civilizing process to the realm of business. There is more to it than passively second-guessing some pre-existing future. When we ask, “what will the future bring?” are we not assuming that the future has already been constituted, is not open to our influence and that our best strategy is to try to work out what it might (already) hold in store for us? Yet, our future is formed in the very stance we take towards it. In many respects, we invent our futures (Gabor, 1964).

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The environment (“outside”) and future (“then”) represents the horizon of possibilities present to us now, however dim, a virtual perception some subset of which we elect to enact now, however, weakly (Harnden, 1989). The American Pragmatist, George Herbert Mead, in his action philosophy laid down the template for how self-conscious organisms take action simultaneously with respect to an environment and a temporal horizon of future possibilities. Mead postulated that the self-conscious organism (the “I”) takes action with reference to an internal model of the self (the “Me”) in order to stabilise its actions within a consistent temporal pattern and in conformity with some sense of self-identity (Mead and Morris, 1974). It is at this level, therefore, that we find the beginnings of self-awareness of identity. This is expressed in the development and elaboration of a model of the self, embedded in an environment, whose beginning we find at level four of the structure for viable identity. Unlike the other elements of this model, embodiments of this element (Beer’s system four) in organizations and society tend to be underdeveloped, denatured or degraded in terms of its embedment in the operational feedback loops of the identity in question[13]. However, recent developments, particularly in the sphere of European governance, suggestively indicate the recent growth of system four features. Importantly, the development of such a system four is a strong pre-condition for the successful advance of a social science (Curtin, 1997; Stokes, 2003). Level 5 – closure The self-image, the sense of self is constituted at this level. At level 5, one is keenly aware of self and other. This is the level that renders all behavioural metonymies into metaphors for the identity is question and where the essential tautology that lies at the heart of identity is resolved: I am I. This represents the closure that finally seals identity. The acting person is in a state of constant tension between what he/she is here and now and what he/she is passing over into becoming in the there and then. This tension is managed by our sense of identity, another higher order control system. It manages the rate of change that is occurring between Levels 3 and 4 so as to keep things manageable within homeostatic limits of cohesion, on the one hand, and the demands of the imminent and the future on the other. Change always poses a threat to existing ways and definitions. It, therefore, has to be managed so that there is a smooth transition of identity into the future. That is why level 5 regulates interactions between Levels 3 and 4. Level 5 carries out the requisite identity work according to which the new is joined to the old and a narrative of continuity is formulated (Somers, 1994). The challenge of identity is precisely encapsulated in the aphorism: plus c¸a change, c’est plus la meˆme chose. As Bateson (1973) has said, identity is a matter of the ongoing truth – or relative stasis – of certain descriptive propositions relative to changes occurring at lower levels of logical typing. Level 5 is the self-reference level of identity – it represents the self’s own understanding of itself to itself (reflexive). By managing the interactions between Levels 3 and 4 (and in particular, the error signals that rise from the layers of enacted identity in level 1) it controls its own perceptions of itself. It is in this sense that “closure is the talisman of identity”.

Summary Increasing societal complexity challenges the limited understanding of the processes of governance that were barely adequate in an age of mass society, but that are clearly and manifestly inadequate in an age of identity. Existing forms of bureaucratic organization are increasingly deficient in requisite variety in the face of the burgeoning complexity of the social world. Governance is a distributed function throughout society and has three major loci or attractors: the individual person, the social organization and the state-society. Innovation in the technology of production has given greater control and autonomy to producers thus loosening the hold of authoritarian modes of social regulation. Thus began a long-term trend in the valorisation of horizontal relationships over vertical relationships. The long chains of horizontal dependency that eventuated gradually ensnarled society in a web-like structure of complexity. This in turn led to the augmentation of the self and the sense of self-identity, relative autonomy and self-regulation and a control infrastructure of social organizations in which these functions are embedded. With the rise and widespread use of the technologies of self-reflexivity we are on the verge of a veritable explosion of identities and identity claims. So much so that we may consider that we have entered the phase of identity society. Conclusion The tasks and challenges of government change dramatically as we move from a mass society where government is based on demographics and mass stereotypes to a complex society where it seems identities in their various recursions have already begun to assume quite autonomously governance functions of their own. It seems that government is no longer the seat of societal governance – societal governance has become part of the self-governance of society itself. I have been arguing that now more than ever there is a real opportunity for a fruitful liaison between cybernetics and the social sciences. I have tried to show how the concept of identity holds the key to this union. Identity is the appropriate sociological form in which the cognitive interests of cybernetics can be expressed and made meaningful at this level of social organization. Furthermore, we have been moving towards an identity society, a society in which previous concepts of government and authority have been losing ground: in fact, almost a second feudalism. A governance vacuum is a real danger if the appropriate understandings are not communicated and put in place now. That is the challenge that we, as cyberneticians and social scientists face. We are moving towards new models of governance and more particularly new models of democracy. By asserting the premise that control is a distributed property of any system cybernetics has a unique contribution to make here. “Identity” gives us the key to unlocking this door. Let us now move forward. Notes 1. Livingston (1985, p. 11) defines complexity as follows: “A thing is complex when it exceeds the capacity of a single individual to understand it sufficiently to exercise effective control – regardless of the resources placed at his disposal.” 2. See also Bennis and Slater (1964).

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3. See, Barnard’s (1938, p. 73) definition of a formal organization as a “system of consciously coordinated activities or forces of two or more persons”. 4. A “common project” may consist of no more than agreed mutual assistance towards the goals of each co-operator. As we shall see, the survival and sustenance of such mutual assistance arrangements eventually becomes the project of the co-operators. There is no implication here that agreement on a shared and common goal is necessary in order for organizing to take place. Mutual advantage, it will be seen, is quite sufficient. See below for further discussion. 5. According to Baecker (2001), system-environment relations constitute a primitive and irreducible feature of the world. 6. I do not disclaim having made cybernetic discoveries here, for the record. But the intention of the work is to provide useful insights into the business of management (Beer, 1979, p. 413). 7. Contrast with Wiener’s (1948) “control and communication in the animal and machine”. As definitions they are not contradictory or indeed in conflict. They just emphasize different topics because the levels of analysis are different. In fact, organization is the product of the iteration of the mutually directed concertation of communication and control between two or more people. 8. I have turned to the insights of managerial cybernetics for the same reasons that Mary Parker Follett turned to the study of business management and leadership (Fox and Urwick, 1982). 9. Viable systems of concentrated purpose will be closely-knit, highly cohesive. Viable systems of general purpose will be more loosely coherent. . . . if the systemic purpose is subjective, only agreement of the heart will justify a given level of cohesion in any institution (Beer, 1979). 10. In Claude Bernard’s famous phrase: “La fixite´ du milieu interieur est la condition de la vie libre, independante” (Beer, 1979). 11. Beer (1979, p. 351) writes: “The command axis should be minimally used in the maintenance of organizational cohesion and not more than this.” 12. Consider, the highly conservative role of all government ministries for finance! 13. It is relatively well developed in individuals, though, at least in Western civilization. See the discussion above and also the work of Elias (1991, 2000). References Ahrne, G. (1990), Agency and Organization: Towards an Organizational Theory of Society, Sage, London. Ahrne, G. (1994), Social Organizations: Interaction Inside, Outside and between Organizations, Sage, London. Argyris, C. and Scho¨n, D.A. (1995), Organizational Learning II: Theory, Method, and Practice, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Ashby, W.R. (1964), An Introduction to Cybernetics, Methuen, London. Aulin, A. (1982), The Cybernetic Laws of Social Progress, Pergamon Press, Oxford. Aulin, A. (1986), “Notes on the concept of self-steering”, in Geyer, F. and van der Zouwen, J. (Eds), Sociocybernetic Paradoxes: Observation, Control and Evolution of Self-steering Systems, Sage, London, pp. 100-18. Baecker, D. (2001), “Why systems?”, Theory, Culture & Society, Vol. 18, pp. 59-74. Barnard, C. (1938), The Functions of the Executive, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

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Scha¨fer, W. (1983), Finalization in Science: The Social Orientation of Scientific Progress, Reidel, Amsterdam. Scheff, T.J. (1990), Microsociology: Discourse, Emotion and Social Structure, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL. Scheff, T.J. (1997), Emotions, the Social Bond, and Human Reality: Part/Whole Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA. Scott, W.R. and Meyer J.W. (1987), “Environmental linkages and organizational complexity: Public and private schools”, in Levin, H.M. and James, T. (Eds), Comparing Public and Private Schools, Falmer Press, New York, NY, pp. 128-60. Shibutani, T. (1961), Society and Personality: An Interactionist Approach to Social Psychology, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Shotter, J. and Gergen, K.J. (1989), Texts of Identity, Sage, London. Somers, M.R. (1994), “The narrative construction of identity: a relational and network approach”, Theory and Society, Vol. 23 No. 4, pp. 605-49. Stokes, P.A. (2003), “Finalization, cybernetics and the possibility of a social science”, unpublished PhD, European Business Management School, Swansea. Tainter, J.A. (1988), The Collapse of Complex Societies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA. Tainter, J.A. (1995), “Sustainability of complex societies”, Futures, Vol. 27 No. 4, pp. 397-407. Vickers, G. (1972), Freedom in a Rocking Boat: Changing Values in an Unstable Society, Pelican Books, Harmondsworth. Volk, T. (1995), Metapatterns: Across Space, Time, and Mind, Columbia University Press, New York, NY. Weaver, W. (1948), “Science and complexity”, American Scientist, Vol. 36, pp. 536-44. Weick, K.E. (1979), The Social Psychology of Organizing, 2nd ed., McGraw-Hill, New York, NY. Weick, K.E. (1995), Sensemaking in Organizations, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA. Weingart, P. (1997), “From ‘finalization’ to ‘Mode 2’: old wine in new bottles?”, Social Science Information, Vol. 36, pp. 591-613. White, H.C. (1992), Identity and Control: A Structural Theory of Social Action, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Whitney-Smith, E. (1991), “Information technology and wealth: cybernetics, history and economics”, unpublished PhD, Old Dominion University. Wiener, N. (1948), Cybernetics: or Control and Communication in the Animal and Machine, 1st ed., Wiley, New York, NY. Willmott, M. (2001), Citizen Brands: Putting Society at the Heart of Your Business, Wiley, Chichester. Yates, J. (1989), Control through Communication: The Rise of System in American Management, John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MA. Zadek, S. (2001), The Civil Corporation: The New Economy of Corporate Citizenship, Earthscan, London. Zuboff, S. and Maxmin, J. (2003), The Support Economy: Why Corporations are Failing Individuals and the Next Episode of Capitalism, Allen Lane/The Penguin Press, London.

Further reading Bateson, M.C. (1991), Our Own Metaphor: A Personal Account of a Conference on the Effects of Conscious Purpose on Human Adaptation, Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington, DC. Beer, S. (1974), Designing Freedom, Wiley, London. Sen, A. (1999), Development as Freedom, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Skinner, B.F. (1973), Beyond Freedom and Dignity, Penguin Books, Harmondsworth. About the author Paul A. Stokes is a College Lecturer in the Department of Sociology since 1996 and is a Member of the Faculty of Human Sciences in UCD. During the academic year 2000-2001, he was a Visiting Scholar at the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB). Stokes also acts as Consultant in the area of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). He is a Fellow of the Cybernetics Society of Great Britain and a Member of the Metaphorum on Cybernetics of Governance. He is also Research Director of the Foundation for Human Dignity and Humiliation Studies based at Columbia University. Prior to his joining UCD, Stokes was a Consultant Research Social Scientist in which capacity he carried out a great deal of project related work from research to project management. From 1985 to 1992, he was Managing Director of SUS Research Ltd. From 1992 to 1995 he was Senior Consultant with Sociomics Ltd. From 1988, he was also for two years Joint Project Director of the 12 Nation REVOLVE Consortium under the EU RACE Programme. He was responsible for the completion of a great deal of policy oriented research and evaluation at both National and European levels. Since joining UCD in 1996 Stokes has been involved in teaching, research and administration. Paul Stokes can be contacted at: [email protected]

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Newcastle Business School, University of Northumbria at Newcastle, Newcastle, UK Abstract Purpose – This paper marks the centenary year of W. Ross Ashby (1903-1972), one of the founders of the interdisciplinary subject of cybernetics. Its purpose is to Ashby’s cybernetics to construct a framework for understanding some of the features that presently characterise British higher education. Design/methodology/approach – The contents of Ashby’s 1956 book, An Introduction to Cybernetics, are outlined. Cybernetic concepts, principles, and laws are then applied to some of the features that presently characterise UK universities: growth in student numbers, the modularisation of curricula, concerns over academic standards, and bureaucracy. Findings – The paper finds Ashby’s writings to be critical to understanding the nature of many of the contemporary debates about UK higher education. A diagnosis and critical evaluation of the policy impetus to increase student numbers and modularise curricula is supplied. A cybernetic analysis in support of the current concerns over academic standards is provided. The paper demonstrates why the current higher education quality assurance regime produces a bureaucratised university. Research limitations/implications – The paper’s framework is supported by an analysis of available national statistics and other secondary evidence, but more detailed, cross-comparative, longitudinal studies of the UK labour market and educational attainment are required. Practical implications – Given the economic perspective adopted by policy-makers – the paper identifies three reasons why the current policy of expanding UK higher education may be flawed. Originality/value – The paper marks the centenary year of W. Ross Ashby by demonstrating how his writings can supply a framework for understanding the current debates about UK higher education policy. Keywords Cybernetics, United Kingdom, Universities, Higher education Paper type Research paper

Introduction Is the notion of an organizational science an oxymoron? It would appear to be so – on the basis of this classic statement from Britain’s foremost Sociologist, Giddens (1993, p. 18): . . . a sort of yearning for a social scientific Newton remains common enough, even if today there are perhaps many more who are sceptical of such a possibility than still cherish such a hope. But those who still wait for a Newton are not only waiting for a train that will not arrive, they are in the wrong station altogether.

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 148-163 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640281

One wonders what such stranded travellers would think if their waiting room were shared by a cybernetic scientist such as the late Professor Stafford Beer? For Beer (1998, p. 9) invariably declared that “[The Law of Requisite Variety] . . . has the same stature in the world of affairs as the law of gravity has in the world of physics.” For him this law is “the dominant law of societary systems” (Beer, 1974, p. 23). It “stands in the same relation to management as the law of gravity stands to Newtonian physics” (Beer, 1979, p. 89).

Indeed, the stranded traveller might well be entertained by Beer’s (2001) last public conference address. It made recourse to The Law of Requisite Variety – named “Ashby’s Law” after its discoverer W. Ross Ashby. Beer’s reference to Ashby’s Law was in relation to his analysis of “. . . a colossal joke that is not in the least funny”. Yes . . . railway transport in Great Britain (Beer, 2001). These opening remarks serve to suggest that Beer and Giddens would disagree on the prospects of informing the management of social organizations through studying that codified body of understanding that is commonly called “science”. In this they reflect the epistemological crisis that currently besets UK higher education; a crisis in which the meaning of common concepts like “knowledge”, “science”, “objectivity”, and “truth” are contested[1]. The symptoms of this crisis can be observed in any high street bookshop. In my own I currently find monograph titles that either ask, “Where have all the intellectuals gone?” (Furedi, 2004), or else lament at “How mumbo-jumbo conquered the world” (Wheen, 2004). Yet life – at least as most people live it – is a process not a justification. It follows that managers and public administrators, when confronted with the tangled philosophical roots of contemporary debates, are inclined to merely enquire “what are you saying?” For instance, consider the terms in which Giddens (1984, p. 181) defines and delimits “the problem of order” in social systems: Let me recall . . . the problem of order . . . the problem of how it comes about that social systems “bind” time and space, incorporating presence and absence. This in turn is closely bound up with the problematic of time-space distanciation: the “stretching” of social systems across time-space.

Whilst one might accept that there may be no logical reason why persons of average intelligence should be able to grasp the thoughts of a leading sociologist, one still might feel that it would be wonderful if the rhetorical circle could somehow be broken and a more satisfying insight of what Giddens means by the “problem of order” be provided. If only, for instance, an ostensive definition could be provided – then the gap between language and reality could be bridged without the use of further language. Whilst philosophers debate whether the path from word to reality can ever involve anything other than the path from word to word, this discussion does suggest that there might be scope to at least illustrate the application of what many would call a “science” to the study of a social organization. By necessity, such an illustration can only deploy the written word, but its intention would be to eschew obscurity by mere expression, replacing this with a set of conceptually informed observations about a social organization. In pursuit of this end, the remainder of this paper will attempt to apply The Law of Requisite Variety, and other aspects of the work of the British cybernetic scientist W. Ross Ashby, to some of the contemporary debates about the management and operation of an important set of social organizations: the universities that comprise UK higher education. One also hopes that such an application will improve our understanding of current developments in UK higher education – but I must leave it to the reader to pass a judgement in that regard. However, in an attempt to avoid any misunderstandings, I hereby refer to a “science” as a codified understanding of how things are and how things work; insight made rigorous[2]. My intentions are threefold. Firstly, to provide an illustration of how cybernetic concepts, principles and laws can better our understanding of some of the features

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that presently characterise UK universities: growth in student numbers, the modularisation of curricula, concerns over academic standards, and bureaucracy. Secondly, it appears to me that policy-makers, public administrators, managers and management scholars are largely unaware of the work of cyberneticians such as W. Ross Ashby and Stafford Beer. Hence I would like to raise their profile – not least because they are no longer alive and able to do so for themselves. Thirdly, 2003 was the centenary year of W. Ross Ashby (1903-1972), so it seems wholly appropriate to revisit the contents and ramifications of his remarkable 1956 book entitled An Introduction to Cybernetics[3]. W. Ross Ashby: the Cybernetic Psychiatrist How does a flock of birds hold its formation? Does the bird at the front lead the others? How can a motorist become caught in a traffic jam when there is not a traffic light or a plastic cone in sight? Why is it that a late running bus tends to arrive with two others? How can a sports crowd generate seemingly spontaneous, synchronised, clapping or chanting? Where is the conductor or karaoke machine to co-ordinate the applause or singing? Why are sporting games themselves usually based upon a rule that each contesting side has the same number of players? These were the kind of questions that, at least in part, W. Ross Ashby was fond of posing in his 1956 book entitled An Introduction to Cybernetics. Ross Ashby was born in London in 1903 and trained in medicine and psychiatry. He composed this book in his office – a padded cell in Barnwood House mental hospital, Gloucester. He later became a Professor in the Biological Computer Laboratory at the University of Illinois (Conant, 1974). Ashby’s central interest was in mechanistic explanations of brain like behaviour (Conant, 1974). For instance, many people would assume that there is a centralised cause to the forms of behaviour cited above – a central controller. For instance, a bird that assumes the role of a “squadron leader”. For instance, a person who is in some sense responsible for traffic congestion and unreliable bus services – cue the secretary of state or incompetent bus drivers. In contrast to such assumptions, Ross Ashby was interested in exploring the extent to which such behaviour is explained, not by the composition of the component parts, but in the way that the parts are coupled to one another. System In particular, we might recognise that the flock of birds, traffic jam, bus route and sports crowd all have something in common. They are all comprised of a set of parts that dynamically interact with one another. For Ashby (1956, p. 40) they can be conceptualised as a “system”: “. . . not a thing, but a list of variables”. This implicates the importance of the scientist as an observer: “. . . every material object contains no less than an infinity of variables and therefore of possible systems” (Ashby, 1956, p. 39). It follows that “. . . there can be no such thing as the (unique) behaviour of a very large system, apart from a given observer” (Ashby, 1956, p. 106). But “scientific treatment of a complex system does not demand that every possible distinction be made” (Ashby, 1956, p. 105). On the contrary, “what is necessary is that we should pick out and study the facts that are relevant to some main interest that is already given” (Ashby, 1956, p. 40).

One of Ashby’s own principal interests was the quantification of the richness and complexity of a specified system. Ashby (1956) demonstrates that given a specification of a relevant system, a vector of variables may be implicated, each with a given state at some moment in time. Thus a system, once defined by an observer, will possess what Ashby (1956, p. 125) termed “variety” – equivalent to the number of possible states that can be discerned by the observer. Consequently, variety is a guide to the “complexity” of any specified system (Ashby, 1956, p. 62). A dynamic system may have many possible states – whether it is defined as a whole or as a vector of parts. As the system’s behaviour unfolds, it may adopt new states. Ashby also demonstrated that variety, as a set of possibilities, is fundamental to the communication theory developed by Shannon and Weaver (1949): “As soon as possibilities shrink to one . . . communication is blocked” (Ashby, 1956, p. 124). Another major theme in the book is the exploration of the circumstances in which the observed behaviour of a system can be predicted in either a determinate or statistical sense. Ashby (1956) demonstrates that the possibility of prediction will always depend upon whether the system, as defined by an observer, possesses a number of mathematical qualities in relation to the transformation of its states. If the specified system runs through the same set of states, and if a given state always progresses to the same subsequent state, after some specified time interval, then, at least in principle, its behaviour is predictable because it is a determinate system. In technical terms, it is a “closed single valued transformation” (Ashby, 1956, p. 39). In the statistical version, it is the probability of a given state changing to the probability of a subsequent state, after a specified time interval, which gives rise to the closed single value transformation. For Ashby (1956) the hallmark of science is the search for closed single valued transformations. Reducible system and holistic systems Ross Ashby “. . . had a great gift for making apparently complex ideas seem simple and for illustrating abstract concepts with homely examples” (Conant, 1974, p. 4). He viewed the role of mathematics in his work as that of a tool – rather than an end in itself (Ashby, 1972). Hence he explored systemic behaviour using the mathematics of discrete transformations rather than technically difficult continuous transformations. But he made this maths go a long way by using a meticulous, deductive reasoning that exhibits great rigour and ingenuity. For example, he explored systems in which the form of the transformation – determining the system’s trajectory of behaviour – is itself determined by another transformation. This arrangement he termed a system with “input” (Ashby, 1956, p. 44). This forms the basis of an exploration of whether two systems can be coupled together to form a larger system. A coupling may involve the states that equate with the transforms of one system (its output) acting as the input of another system. By this treatment Ashby demonstrates that the behaviour of a system that is comprised of coupled sub-systems depends not only on the behaviour of the sub-systems, but also on the format of their coupling: “. . . only when the details of [the] coupling are added does the whole’s behaviour become determinate” (Ashby, 1956, p. 53). Alternatively, he demonstrates that if the larger system is not based upon such a dependent relationship between coupled sub-systems, then it is “reducible”: the whole consists of parts that are functionally independent of one another (Ashby, 1956, p. 60).

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Feedback systems Ashby also explored the coupling of systems by means of a mutual relationship of influence. Such a mutual coupling generates a circularity of action in the form of “feedback” (Ashby, 1956, p. 53) and involves a “channel of communication” between the systems (Ashby, 1956, p. 57). A feedback relationship may be negative; in which case a movement in the state of a sub-system “A” will generate a movement in the state of a sub-system “B”. Yet, via the feedback coupling, the very movement in the state of “B” generates a movement in the state of “A”, that counters the initial displacement in “A” – bringing it under “control”. Such a relationship represents “. . . the basic theory . . . of the simple feedback regulator” (Ashby, 1956, p. 224). Alternatively, systems may be coupled such that a movement in either will be re-enforced by the movement of the other: a positive feedback system. Finally, feedback relationships form the basis of homeostatic systems. In this case the movement in the state of a given system will generate movements in others until all systems acquire a stable state whence further movement stops or is maintained within limits (Ashby, 1956). Homeostatic systems A homeostatic feedback design was the basis of Ashby’s famous machine, the homeostat, built on his kitchen table out of Royal Airforce surplus equipment (Conant, 1974). The homeostat was constructed out of electrical feedback loops that operated a set of needle pointers. Over most of their range of movement the pointers would cause the feedback circuits, which acted as their input, to randomly reconfigure themselves – thus causing further movements in the pointers. In this system, it was impossible to predict what the machine would do next because it did not operate to an algorithm – the specification of its coupling was random. Nevertheless, the process inevitably continued until the needles all fell within their stable zones. To the observer, the homeostat displays purposive, brain like activity, searching out a goal – but without the route being specified in advance. Control without a controller The homeostat may appear to be an amusing toy, but not in the eyes of Wiener (1954, p. 38), the ranking Mathematician, Cybernetician and social critic who described it at the time as “. . . one of the great philosophical contributions of the present day.” The implication of the homeostat is that control may have no centralised location – it may be decentralised and dissipated throughout the structure of relationships that constitute a system. For instance, the flock of birds may hold its formation by each bird interacting with every other bird in a particular way that might be described by a few heuristic rules: do not bump into each other but keep up! From these simple rules, the complex behaviour of the whole flock emerges. The failure of the motorist to observe similar rules, probably because of a random distraction, can create a traffic jam without the assistance of a traffic cone or policeman. One driver will be too slow in adjusting to the speed of the car ahead and their rapid deceleration will be magnified by the driver behind and so on – a set of individual negative feedback systems become coupled together to form a positive feedback system. A similar story unfolds in the sports crowd – just by chance a few spectators will clap or chant together. Their tempo

stands out in the sea of random noise. This enables other spectators to tune in and adjust their own noise to it. Others amplify the behaviour in a positive feedback system. The Law of Requisite Variety Yet if Ross Ashby’s name is recognised at all today, it is probably because of his authorship of what he called “The Law of Requisite Variety” – Ashby’s Law. The derivation of the law occupies only a short section in his 1956 book and it results in the simple statement that: “only variety can destroy variety” (Ashby, 1956, p. 207). Again, the mathematics that Ashby used to demonstrate this law is prolonged but accessible. In any case it need not occupy us here because Ashby’s Law is a law of logic and like most laws of logic it makes intuitive sense . . . given a little thought. In essence, the law is based upon an exploration of the logical possibilities inherent in one defined system being able to “counter” the effects of another defined system. For instance, consider a conference meeting with a set of delegates, D, some of whom drink tea and some of whom drink coffee. Then the state of each element of D, at the conference “refreshment break” so to speak, will be either “satisfied” or “dissatisfied” – depending on whether they can secure a cup of tea or a cup of coffee according to their preferences. Whether this is the case will depend – of course – upon the elements that constitute the supply of drinks, R: if R has a variety that is comprised of both tea and coffee then the potential varietal state within D called “dissatisfaction” is destroyed; everyone obtains a drink according to their preference: To put it picturesquely: only variety in R can force down the variety due to D; only variety can destroy variety (Ashby, 1956, p. 207).

Hence the notion of a “sporting contest”: where a game pits one team of players against another team of players of equal number (if not of precisely equal ability). In short, if a team can not absorb the variety of the opposition on the playing field then they will absorb it on the scoreboard. Understanding UK universities: a suitable case for the cybernetic psychiatrist? In the remainder of this paper, I will attempt to relate the work of Ross Ashby to UK higher education in an abstract, but hopefully illuminative way. The UK’s universities have experienced enormous change in recent years, change that has been dominated by a massive expansion in student numbers. (Figure 1). These developments have not passed by unaddressed, with one commentator identifying an “anti-elitist elite” who is content to both instigate and preside over a “dumbed down” educational climate (Furedi, 2004). Others have contrasted what they call “the new idea of a university”, with the university as traditionally understood, and indicted the former as a “sham” (Maskell and Robinson, 2001). Let me move this paper towards its conclusion by exploring how Ross Ashby’s writings might provide us with a better understanding of these current discontents. Ashby’s observation that the definition of any system is observer dependent is critical to understanding the nature of many of the contemporary debates about UK higher education. For Ashby, a system is not a thing – it is a list of variables. It follows that in studying a system we should pick out and study the facts that are relevant to

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154 Figure 1. Total full and part-time student numbers in UK higher education

an interest that is already given. The implication of this, in discussing the use of concepts like “University” in the context of public policy formulation, is that we cannot be precious about the meaning of our words. The policy-maker starts with a set of interests, identifies the set of variables that he thinks are relevant, and then gives that set of variables a short hand label. In other words, the definition of policy-making concepts: . . . must be read back to front, or from the right to the left; for it starts with the defining formula, and asks for a short label for it (Popper, 1957, p. 14).

This idea of reading definitions from right to left is the opposite of what is “normally” done when the meaning of a word is retrieved from a dictionary. But UK higher education policy cannot be discussed with a mindset of essentialist definitions, in other words, with definitions that run from left to right, for instance, that the true essence of a university is that it has properties X, Y, and Z. If commentators think in terms of essentialist definitions then little insight will be on offer if they discover that real life universities do not exhibit the properties of X, Y and Z. The more interesting question is to ask what interests are driving current policy-making conceptualisations of higher education and what are their ramifications? Going for growth Modern western societies are characterised by growth: growth in population, growth in economic output, advance in technological performance and growth in consumption (Meadows et al., 1972, 1992). The root explanation of growth can be traced to the division of labour, economies of scale and the free exchange of productions. As Smith (1776, p. 7) noted, specialisation enables things: an increased dexterity in the worker, the potential to automate tasks using machinery, and the elimination of the temptation to “saunter” from one work task to another. However, such specialisation relies upon a market in which to exchange the “great multiplication of productions” (Smith, 1776, xxxi). It follows that the market exchange system, coupled to a division of labour in the production system, unconsciously promotes the wealth of the nation. In an identical way to Ashby’s homeostat, the market appears to be a controlled system but without a central controller. The wealth of the nation is promoted by an “invisible hand”.

But unlike the homeostat, the modern western society is only stable if it continues to grow. Investment begets profits, which enables further investment that begets further profits . . . and so on. Moreover, this positive feedback system is amplified by leverage: existing assets and expected profits can be transformed into borrowings that enable further investment. Contrary to the homeostatic notions of neo-classical economics, with its emphasis on competitive equilibrium, our culture is “going for growth”.

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Education, education, education Interestingly, Smith (1776) recommended that a government subsidize education for the working poor so as to offset the harmful effects of the mental torpor that he associated with the division of labour. But this is not the professed rationale for the expansion of higher education in the UK. On the contrary, for the UK government: . . . the future demand for those with higher education qualifications will be shaped by the changing structure of the national economy and the labour market, which in turn will be responding to changes in the world economy (The National Committee of Inquiry into Higher Education (TNCI), 1997, p. 87).

In the words of the former Minister for Higher Education, debating the necessity of extending participation in UK higher education to 50 per cent of young people: . . . it is an economic necessity . . . if we want to tackle our productivity agenda and work to maintain and enhance our competitiveness (Hodge, 2001).

In short, this age is interpreted as “the era of flexible specialization” and the era demands a new kind of university (Luke, 1998). The education and the economic system are coupled because greater specialisation and automation requires ever-greater flows of information to co-ordinate the economic system and facilitate exchange on a global basis. Luke (1998, p. 21) summarizes the position: In an era of flexible specialization, traditional knowledge seems miscast inasmuch as its concepts and categories appear unable to hit or, even worse, to be aimed at profitable markets.

Hence, to fuel economic growth, there is a perceived requirement for huge numbers of what are euphemistically called “knowledge workers”: employees who are numerate, literate, and adept at using information and communication technologies. A new conceptualisation of the university is thereby implied; in place of the university as traditionally understood, the university in which “knowledge is capable of being its own end” (Newman, 1854, p. 50), the new idea of a university commodifies knowledge; it has to be “delivered, transmitted, marketed, and consumed” (Furedi, 2004, p. 7). It is “the new university as training in skills” (Maskell and Robinson, 2001, p. 72). (Non) models of the job market Of course, in principle, one might have expected the government’s skills development agenda to be delivered by school education, but that suggestion fails to recognise the lag time in the educational system and the way in which both the economic and educational systems are themselves coupled to a government with a fixed tenure of office. For the politician, the dynamics of the total system means that electoral success may depend upon early results. One might also note that in 2001, the chief inspector of schools reported that a quarter of 11-year olds transfer to secondary schools without

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basic skills in reading and writing. A similar statistic exists for basic skills in mathematics (Woodhead, 2002). Nevertheless “policy conclusions are often quite sensitive to variations in the way the policy is modelled” (Friedman, 1984, p. 21). It is therefore important to note that models of the UK labour market are confused and confusing. There may be at least three reasons to believe that whatever model the UK government is using, if there is one at all, lacks requisite variety in relation to its intended purpose and interests. Firstly, the government’s economic justification for expanded higher education provision rests on human capital theory. This is the notion that each person represents a durable resource – a future flow of labour. Thankfully, humans have no direct market-revealed capital value because people are not bought and sold. Nevertheless, personal earnings can be used as a proxy flow measure of human capital value (Friedman, 1984). It follows that current policy is based upon estimates of both the private and social rates of return from obtaining a first degree (TNCI, 1997). Both of these calculations estimate the stream of extra earnings accumulated by a graduate over their whole lifetime as compared to an estimate of what a non-graduate would have earned. This way of estimating the economic value of higher education is in accordance with the normal practice of neo-classical economics, but other basic tenets of this doctrine are hardly considered at all. For instance, an increase in the supply of any commodity in a market place will generally lead to a fall in its price (Friedman, 1984). The current policy is essentially to note the historically higher earnings of graduates and to increase their supply in the prediction that this will increase the nation’s wealth, but the obvious negative feedback effect between the level of graduates in a labour market and their level of earnings is dismissed by wishful thinking: . . . in looking forward, it is relevant to consider how far the increase in the stock of those with higher education qualifications in the labour market might depress the pay premia . . . We take a somewhat more optimistic view. If higher education institutions and employers adopt the recommendations in the rest of our report, we conclude that there are likely to be continuing significant economic benefits for individuals from higher education (TNCI, 1997, p. 93).

Secondly, whilst the government pursues the expansion of UK higher education, the highest level of skills shortages estimated by the National Skills Task Force is in crafts: builders, plumbers and electricians (Woodhead, 2002). The shortage of plumbers in the UK, and their resultant high earnings, has become close to a national joke, with popular press reports of doctoral graduates who are re-training to become plumbers (Pook, 2004). In Ashby’s terms, feedback in the economic system is already asserting itself – with limiting factors being made plain by skills shortages and wage inflation. Thirdly, a rigorous economic investigation of the coupling of a higher education system to a labour market should consider relationships other than the development of human capital. As texts on micro-economic policy analysis point out, “the re-examination of assumptions which are standard . . . often becomes the central focus in a particular policy context” (Friedman, 1984, p. 21). One important observation in this regard, is that current policy-making defines the higher education system as a system of economic investment. Yet given the economic interests of policy-makers, education should also be considered as a signalling system. As Ashby (1956, p. 124) noted, variety, as a set of possibilities, is fundamental to communication: “As soon as possibilities shrink to one . . . communication is blocked.” One unacknowledged

application of this fact is in economics, where education has been modelled as a signal of natural ability in a job market (Spence, 1973). This proposes that both employers and job applicants can use educational attainment as a signal of productive capability – thereby reducing the transaction costs of informed recruitment. Crucially, such signalling mechanisms rely upon people facing differential costs in obtaining the educational qualifications that serve as signals, for instance, that there are differences in the levels of time and effort that people have to invest in obtaining a qualification (Spence, 1973). If such differences are removed, for instance, if the intellectual demands of higher education are reduced to a lowest common denominator, then there may be incentives for everyone to acquire a higher education. It follows that variety in the communication mechanism is eliminated and communication is blocked – potentially an economically costly outcome because new mechanisms will eventually have to be developed by both job seekers and employers. Students, students, students The current policy might be summed up like this: economic welfare demands that one in every two people obtain an honours degree. Moreover, such qualifications must now include an emphasis on numeracy, literacy and communication. For the university academic, the model might be summed up like this: in 2002/2003 expect 20 students in each of your seminar classes and dedicate some classes to teaching skills that you might think should be developed in school (HESA, 2004a, b)[4]. If the duration of a seminar class is one hour, then how might these numbers be conceptualised in terms of the variety of the seminar system? One way of defining such a system is in terms of the communication channels that potentially exist within it. For eight individuals there are 28 possible channels for the exchange of opinion (56/2): if each person wanted to exchange their opinion with every other person they would have a leisurely two minutes per conversation. For 20 participants, there are 190 (380/2) possible conversation channels, equating to 19 seconds per conversation. In a system of such variety, it would be perfectly possible for an individual student to pass through three years of seminars without ever saying anything. Indeed, even if much of the potential interaction in the seminar were removed, for instance by a tutor who merely decides to ask a question of every student, then each exchange with a student would still have to be curtailed to an average of three minutes. Cybernetic changes also unfold in the lecture hall where it would be much harder to build up a rapport with an audience of 100 than with an audience of 30. Yet what is rapport? It is “feedback” – a two way “channel of communication’” between two systems (Ashby, 1956, p. 57). As Wiener (1954, pp. 49-50) observed: . . . there is no task harder for a lecturer to speak to a dead pan audience. The purpose of applause in a theatre – and it is essential – is to establish in the performers mind some modicum of two way communication.

Moreover, injecting increased numbers of students into a university, without a proportionate injection of financial resources, will require a more efficient use of those resources that are available[5]. It has been estimated that in a manufacturing context the unit cost of production tends to decline as volume increases, usually falling by 15-25 per cent per unit each time volume doubles (Balle, 1994). On the other hand, product differentiation tends to increase the unit cost of production by 20 per cent each

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time the variety of the product doubles (Balle, 1994). In a manifestation of Ashby’s Law, the necessity to balance the financial books in the university context will give rise to the temptation to limit variety in the curriculum. Such a strategy may be attained by modularisation – with large compulsory generic modules delivering large segments of a curriculum across numerous degrees. These would then be supplemented with smaller optional modules at the more advanced levels of study.

158 Modularisation as a (non) reductive system In many respects, a modularised curriculum, which allows a student to “pick and mix” and assemble a degree, with each module having discrete learning outcomes, represents the ideal way to deliver the generic skills that the policy-makers believe the modern economy demands. However, such modules have to be intellectually free standing to make any real sense; in Ashby’s terms the modularised degree system has to be “reducible” to the modules and their learning outcomes. If a modularised degree system is non-reducible, then modules are being coupled as sub-systems to a wider whole, in which case it makes sense to identify that wider whole as a traditional “course” system in disguise. Moreover, the benefits of such pseudo modularisation, such as economies of scale, may not be attained. Furthermore, such a pseudo modularised structure, that has been grafted on to a course by carving up a curriculum into bits and pieces, will lack operational requisite variety in several respects. For instance, it may become difficult to ascertain whether the relationships that should exist between modules do in fact exist – because academic reporting structures and management systems may be configured around each distinct module rather than a course. After all, the curriculum has been “modularised”. Alternatively, a complex matrix structure might be established, or emerge in a de facto sense via a homeostatic process of academic self-regulation. This results in module management and course management, module exam boards and course exam boards – proliferating rather than reducing variety and potentially leaving an individual module tutor ill informed as to what a particular class of students are studying in the wider “course” sense, and how they are performing elsewhere, and even who they are. Given Ashby’s insights into systemic behaviour, it would perhaps be of no surprise to learn that universities who have failed to think through these issues behave like the homeostat and oscillate between a modularised, pseudo modularised and course-based curriculum[6]. Prizes for all . . . except the “Hard Marker”? Yet there are still many more important ramifications to the current policy of higher education expansion. For instance, if the current policy is to encourage one in two young people to enter university, then this means broadening the catchment base, which means that the proportion of excellent students will go down. One would therefore expect that levels of academic achievement would, on average, fall. Interestingly, the statistics of the Higher Education Statistics Agency actually reveal a steady increase in the proportion of first and upper second-class honours degrees awarded in recent years (Figure 2). Of course, in any system of assessment, there is the potential to maintain levels of achievement by establishing a negative feedback coupling between student performance in assessment and the recognised levels of achievement against which

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Figure 2. First degrees by class of award

they are assessed; a phenomenon that is often referred to as “dumbing down”[7]. Yet whilst this might be a simple negative feedback regulator for any one institution that is faced with dwindling pass rates, it will come as a shock for any established academic who is not party to the new arrangement – there will be no prizes for the “hard marker” at the various university examination boards[8]. Moreover, if one institution embarks upon this strategy, it will provide others with an incentive to do the same – potentially generating a positive feedback system of ever-lower standards across higher education as a whole. In essence, there is a potential for “dumbing down” to lead to yet more “dumbing down”, as institutions struggle to maintain their relative positions. In a cruel paradox, the British tradition of external examiners, where examiners from other universities assess the standard of marking at any given university, might actually facilitate this process. Quality, quality, quality . . . paperwork Until arithmetical limits are encountered, the phenomenon of “dumbing down” the assessment process will always have requisite variety in maintaining levels of student attainment – unless it is coupled to another sub-system that it is usual to call “Quality Control”. Thus we have arrived at what, for some, is the greatest burden of working within modern academia: the paper work of bureaucracy (Calder, 2004). In essence, the current quality assurance regime in UK universities concerns itself not with the regulation of systemic outcomes, but with the inspection of systemic processes. For the Quality Assurance Agency (QAA) (2000) for higher education inspects not the outcomes of a university education, but its compliance with a planned process. It assumes that the planned process will achieve “quality” outcomes and inspects whether the actual processes comply with the plan. But in order to make such a “quality” assessment, the actual process must be made transparent and this can only be done by documenting its every conceivable twist and turn. Such, a fully documented process of dynamic high variety will, by definition, generate bureaucracy and paper work on an almost unimaginable scale[9]. It also makes it simply unacceptable to use heuristic methods to regulate this complex, high variety, dynamic system, where every taught class may quite feasibly unfold through a different trajectory of states. No, only

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an algorithm is acceptable, call it a “teaching and learning plan” and be prepared to justify any divergences from it. But can an educational process be managed by an algorithm? It is the process of transformation in a complex system that is always the great unknown – “the black box” (Ashby, 1956, p. 86). For instance, consider a system with just two inputs and two outputs, each of which has just two states, “on” and “off”. Hence the variety of the inputs and outputs are both four-fold: 00, 01, 10, and 11. However, the variety of the potential patterns of connection between input and output, if unconstrained, is equal to 256 (44). Now, however, we define them, most teaching systems have more than two inputs and more than two outputs. For instance, on the output side we might presently be discussing only two students whose answers either “pass” or “fail” a question posed to them. Indeed, a system with eight inputs and one output, each with a state of being either “on” or “off”, has a variety of potential patterns of connection of 2256 – a gigantic number. The function of the university lecturer The commodification and bureaucratisation of higher education effectively means that the profession of university teaching will struggle to maintain the function that Bertrand Russell ascribed to it: “Teachers are more than any other class the guardians of civilization” (Russell, 1950, p. 152). On the contrary, their current predicament is perhaps better reflected by the words of one lecturer in French at Bristol University: Like school teachers, we have chosen to be the guardians of knowledge for subsequent generations . . . What I question is the . . . disruptive administrative duties placed on academic staff. I entered one profession and find myself working in another (Calder, 2004).

Conclusion This paper has sought to revisit the contents and ramifications of W. Ross Ashby’s book – An Introduction to Cybernetics. It has used his work as a vehicle for exploring some of the current developments within UK universities. My broadest intention has been to illustrate how Ashby’s cybernetics can improve our understanding of some of these developments and the debates that they have generated. I did not have the privilege of meeting W. Ross Ashby and I do not claim that he would necessarily agree with anything presented here. I did have the privilege of meeting Beer (1979), who, via books like The Heart of Enterprise, sought to chart the full ramifications of Ashby’s work for the regulation of both business and society. Sadly, both Ashby and Beer are now deceased and their works are poorly represented in the teaching of business management and public administration. For these reasons I hope that this paper has, in its own small way, preserved their words and celebrated their memory. Notes 1. For an introduction to the philosophical debates about these concepts, see Scruton (1996). For an example of the epistemological issues generated in science by the philosophical literature, see Sokal and Bricmont (1998). For an example that relates to business management and public administration, see Loughlin (2004). 2. I do not claim that scientific methodology can itself be easily codified. For the reasons why this is so – see, for example, Chalmers (1982) and Sokal and Bricmont (1998).

3. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 21st Standing Conference on Organizational Symbolism – Organizational Wellness: mens sana in corporate sano? University of Cambridge, UK, 9-12 July 2003, and at the Metaphorum Colloquim on Cybernetics and Governance, University of Sunderland, UK, 30 April-1 May 2004. I am grateful for the comments that I received at both events. I also thank my colleague Nigel van Zwanenberg and Dr Darrin Baines, MedM Ltd, for enlightening discussions on epistemology. 4. In 2002/2003 there were 101,045 teaching and teaching/research academics in all of UK higher education institutions (HESA, 2004a). In the same year there were 2,175,115 students (HESA, 2004b). A ratio of approximately 22:1. 5. In 1997, the TNCI (1997) estimated that the unit of resource per student fell by more than 40 per cent in real terms between 1976 and 1997. 6. See the Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004a) for a report on the many Universities that have introduced and then withdrawn semester-based, modular, courses. 7. See the THES (2004b, c, d) for reported evidence and concerns about declining academic standards. Also Lightfoot (2004) for reports of Parliamentary questions on the issue. 8. See, for example, the THES (2004e), for a report on a university that requires its academics to construct a “remedial action plan” if the failure and withdrawal rate on a course exceeds 15 per cent. 9. It is reported that a study, commissioned by The Higher Education Funding Council for England, estimated that the current annual cost of the quality assurance regime in England is £211 million – equivalent to the annual income of two large universities (THES, 2004f). References Ashby, W.R. (1956), An Introduction to Cybernetics, Methuen edition 1964, London. Ashby, W.R. (1972), “Systems and their informational measures”, in Klir, G. (Ed.), Trends in General Systems Theory, Wiley, New York, NY. Balle, M. (1994), Managing with Systems Thinking, McGraw-Hill, Maidenhead. Beer, S. (1974), Designing Freedom, Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, Chichester. Beer, S. (1998), “Let us now praise famous men – and women too (from Warren McCulloch to Candace Pert)”, paper presented at World Multiconference on Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, Orlando, FL, 12-19 July. Beer, S. (2001), “Vital aspects of viability. The Viable System Model [VSM] in management”, paper presented at First International Conference on Systemic Management, Vienna, 1 May. Calder, M. (2004), “Striking a blow at bureaucracy”, The Daily Telegraph, 25 February 2004. Chalmers, A.F. (1982), What is this Thing Called Science?, 2nd ed., Open University Press, Buckingham. Conant, R. (1974), “W. Ross Ashby (1903-1972)”, International Journal of General Systems, Vol. 1, pp. 4-5. Friedman, L.S. (1984), Microeconomic Policy Analysis, Mcgraw-Hill, New York, NY. Furedi, F. (2004), Where Have All the Intellectuals Gone? Confronting 21st Century Philistinism, Continuum, London. Giddens, A. (1984), The Constitution of Society, Polity Press, Cambridge. Giddens, A. (1993), New Rules of Sociological Method, Polity Press, Cambridge.

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Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2004a), Higher Education Statistics for the UK 2002/2003, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2004b), Students in Higher Education Institutions 2002/2003, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Hodge, M. (2001), “Elitism never made a nation rich”, The Guardian, 6 November. Lightfoot, L. (2004), “Dumbing down fear as leading universities award more firsts”, The Daily Telegraph, 16 March. Loughlin, M. (2004), “Management, science and reality: a commentary on ‘Practically useless? Why management theory needs Popper’”, Philosophy of Management: Formerly Reason in Practice, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 35-44. Luke, T. (1998), “Miscast canons? The future of universities in an era of flexible specialization”, Telos, Vol. 111, pp. 15-31. Maskell, D. and Robinson, I. (2001), The New Idea of a University, Haven Books, London. Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L. and Randers, J. (1972), The Limits to Growth, Pan edition 1974, London. Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J. and Behrens, W.W. III (1992), Beyond the Limits, Earthscan, London. Newman, J.H. (1854), in Turner, F.M. (Ed.), The Idea of a University, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT, 1996. Pook, S. (2004), “Biologist abandons vital research to double his salary fitting boilers”, The Daily Telegraph, 24 February. Popper, K.R. (1957), The Open Society and its Enemies. Vol. II The High Tide of Prophecy: Hegel, Marx and the Aftermath, 3rd ed., Routledge and Kegan Paul, London. Quality Assurance Agency (QAA) (2000), Code of Practice for the Assurance of Academic Quality and Standards in Higher Education, QAA, Gloucester. Russell, B. (1950), Unpopular Essays, Allen and Unwin, London. Scruton, R. (1996), Modern Philosophy – An Introduction and Survey, Mandarin, London. Shannon, C.E. and Weaver, W. (1949), The Mathematical Theory of Communication, University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL. Smith, A. (1776), An Enquiry into the Wealth of Nations, Everyman edition 1991, London. Sokal, A. and Bricmont, J. (1998), Intellectual Impostures. Postmodern Philosophers’ Abuse of Science, Profile Books, London. Spence, M.A. (1973), “Job market signalling”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 87, pp. 355-74. The National Committee of Inquiry into Higher Education (TNCI) (1997), Higher Education in the Learning Society – Report of the National Committee (Dearing Report), HMSO, Norwich, CT. Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004a), “Return to terms of endearment”, 12 November. Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004b), “Caught in vicious circle of declining standards”, THES, 19 November. Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004c), “High on class, low on content?”, THES, 26 November. Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004d), “B-grade maths students are so bad, they may as well guess the answers”, THES, 27 August 2004.

Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004e), “Staff angered by failure rule”, THES, 13 August. Times Higher Education Supplement (THES) (2004f), “Regulation bill cut by 25%”, THES, 18 June. Wheen, F. (2004), How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World. A Short History of Modern Delusions, Fourth Estate, London. Wiener, N. (1954), The Human Use of Human Beings – Cybernetics and Society, 2nd ed., Free Association Books edition 1989, London. Woodhead, C. (2002), Class War, Little Brown, London. Further reading Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (1996), Students in Higher 1994/1995, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (1997), Students in Higher 1995/1996, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (1998), Students in Higher 1996/1997, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (1999), Students in Higher 1997/1998, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2000), Students in Higher 1998/1999, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2001), Students in Higher 1999/2000, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2002), Students in Higher 2000/2001, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) (2003), Students in Higher 2001/2002, Higher Education Statistics Agency, London. National Statistics (2003), Social Trends No 33, HMSO, Norwich, IL.

Education Institutions Education Institutions Education Institutions Education Institutions Education Institutions Education Institutions Education Institutions Education Institutions

About the author Rod Thomas was born in Glamorgan, Wales, in 1965. He studied at the University of York where he was awarded a BA Honours in Economics and an MSc in Health Economics. He currently teaches at the Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, where he is the Programme Leader of the Master of Business Administration by part-time study. Prior to this he was employed in the UK National Health Service. Rod Thomas can be contacted at: rod. [email protected]

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Ralf-Eckhard Tu¨rke Institute of Management and Public Management Centre of Excellence, University of St Gallen, St Gallen, Switzerland Abstract Purpose – A central question of governance in our time is how actors in complex, diverse and dynamic contexts can be harmonized, respecting the needs and limitations of their contexts. New technologies enable shaping and modelling interactions to an extent hitherto unknown. They constitute a huge potential to support and integrate interactions and to reshape governance. This paper sets out to explore a concept of interaction applicable to media which captures and addresses the specific characteristics of social systems required to ensure their viability. Design/methodology/approach – The potential of cybernetics and systems theory for both the design and application of media in social contexts is explored. Building on an autopoietic concept of social systems, a notion of governance as a process of interaction is established. Beer’s Viable Systems Model (VSM) and Schwaninger’s Model of Systemic Control is applied to derive the characteristic elements, configurations and types of interaction required to support balancing actors’ images in social systems. Links to political and social science theory are provided. Findings – Cybernetic and system theories provide a solid conceptual basis for capturing the complexity, dynamics and diversity of interaction. Identifying and addressing the relevant characteristics of interaction in social systems can be achieved through the application of cybernetic tools and vocabulary. These can be used to specify and secure the necessary and sufficient design principles for media through which the viability of social systems can be promoted. Originality/value – The paper shows that requirements to the structure of media applied in social contexts can be specified. Analysing interactions in all kind of social systems does provide clues for the development, implementation, and configuration of improved media. When applied properly, these can boost up governing interactions to much more productive and sustainable forms. This turns out to be a remarkable opportunity to promote the governance of social systems. Keywords Governance, Cybernetics, Social interaction, Systems theory Paper type Research paper

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 164-181 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640290

Introduction Complexity, dynamics, and diversity are central aspects cited in arguments as well as discussions on the subject of governance. They indicate that social conditions in modern societies are multi-layered and complicated rather than simple and clear. These points to a most central question of our time: how can actors in social systems harmonize the needs and limitations of their context and environment? It seems obvious that, in addition to traditional ways of governing, new modes for tackling governance issues are needed: modes that involve actors, stimulate them to integrate into their social context (such as community, company, or country) respecting the needs and limitations which come along and differentiating between common and individual responsibilities. Such modes of dealing with each other must be capable to accommodate social with individual concerns in a differentiated and integrative way.

They must stimulate actors to tolerate different worldviews and to actively support harmonised, inter-dependent behaviour instead of self-centrism. Aspiring to discover such governing modes, and helping to make governing interactions productive, is definitely a major challenge of our time (Kooiman, 2003; Willke, 2000). In this paper, governance shall be considered as a process of interaction. Following Kooiman’s (2003), approach interaction is the basic analytical unit of governance. The relevant aspects for defining and forming relationships between actors unite in interaction and evolve social systems. Interaction makes apparent, to which extent actor constellations are cohesive or rather discrete. Thus, the diversity, complexity, and dynamics of social reality become understandable. Observing systems through an interactional perspective opens up a holistic perspective on the way they function. Understanding them finally enables to choose and develop the conceptual tools adequate for coping with the challenges prevailing. Figure 1 shows the elements of governance as a process of interaction. This paper adopts a social-science perspective on governance so derives the logical prerequisites of interactions that promote the viability of social systems. It looks at image formation within and between actors then asks which characteristics and types of interaction are required to support the accommodation of actor’s images in an adequate way to cope with social diversity, dynamics and complexity. Tackling this question prepares the development of a general integrative framework for media (eGovernance[1]) which describes the necessary and sufficient criteria to promote the viability of the social systems they are applied in. This framework will allow the analysis of interaction in all kinds of social systems and provide clues for the development, implementation, and configuration of improved media.

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Figure 1. Elements of governance as a process of interaction

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Elements of interaction Actor Actors are the basic, autopoietic entities of social systems[2], which mean they are operationally closed, structurally determined, and function in a circular, self-referential way. They perceive their environment solely according to their internal configuration and act with the specific skills their structure provides[3]. Nevertheless, actors mutually influence each other and coordinate their behaviour as a consequence of structural coupling. As they are autonomous, it is impossible to effect a certain behaviour by way of external, hierarchical influence. Instead, actors perceive external influences through their systemic structure and act based upon their individual reflections and interpretations (Go¨rlitz and Burth, 1998). To illustrate this point, Maturana and Varela use the analogy of a submarine pilot, who is being congratulated via radio for a perfect manoeuvre from another actor standing at the beach. The driver is confused by the compliments he received for avoiding “reefs”, “beaches”, etc. His perception was that he had been reading certain dials and maintaining correlations between indicators within the limits of the submarine’s equipment. The dynamics of manoeuvring the submarine by its pilot are structurally determined. They do not concur with representations of the outside world. Beaches and reefs: . . . are valid only for an outside observer, not for the submarine or for the navigator who functions as a component of it (Maturana and Varela, 1985).

Image Actors in social systems do not act from a void. Instead, their behaviour is linked to a perception of reality, which is determined by their beliefs, interests, and backgrounds. These elements coalesce into a perspective, or a mental picture of the things, relationships, and meanings, which constitute the actor’s reality. Since different actors have different beliefs, backgrounds, and interests, they do have different ways of perceiving, experiencing and interpreting reality. An actor’s perspective on reality is referred to here as the concept of image. An image comprises all kinds of belief systems such as visions, knowledge, facts, judgments, presuppositions, wishes, goals, hypotheses, theories, convictions, etc. (Kooiman, 2003). It contains the actor’s validity claims on reality and is created with reference to the actor’s lifeworld (Habermas, 1981a, b). Lifeworld is the transcendental site where actors meet for inter-subjective affairs to deal with their validity claims, to settle disagreements, achieve agreements, etc. It is the “culturally transmitted and linguistically organised stock of interpretative patterns” (Habermas, 1981a) they refer to. It can be described as: . . . the unquestioned ground of everything given in my experience and the unquestionable frame in which all the problems I have to deal with are located (Yolles, 2003).

The image an actor adopts in a certain situation defines the repertoire of actions he can undertake. Thus, the image enables actors to cope with a certain set of situations. The repertoire inherent in the image can be quantified by counting the number of alternative actions (i.e. states) it envisages. The measure to describe this repertoire is variety. It is the measure of complexity describing: . . . the number of possible states of whatever it is, whose complexity we want to measure (Beer, 1979, 1984).

Variety can be determined accurately with respect to a certain situation, but respective numbers quickly grow exorbitant (Ashby, 1964). But the purpose of this measure is not dependent on fixing the exact count for its measure. The salient problem is to identify and assess huge divergencies of varieties and thus estimate the actor’s potential for coping with them (Beer, 1985; Schwaninger, 2004). In practise, qualitative estimations of variety deviations will generally suffice (Beer, 1979; Malik, 1993). The challenge lies in balancing varieties as well between actors in social systems as with the environment. Therefore, variety needs to be attenuated or amplified between actors to cope with their own and the social systems challenges. In the law of requisite variety, the measure is used to express a fundamental cybernetic insight: “Only variety can absorb variety” (Beer, 1979). This states that a complex social system can only be controlled, if the controlling system dispose of equal variety (Ashby, 1964; Beer, 1979). Applied to the governance of social systems, this implies that interaction triggers and essentially predefines the adaptation of actors’ images. It must be assured that actor’s images are suitable for matching the variety of the social system and its environment. Representation The concept of representation is used here to denote tacit or explicit expressions of reality conceptions derived from images. They are the objects actors create and towards which they mutually orient each other in interaction, e.g. language, gesture, etc. Representations initiate the reconciliation of reality conceptions. They are reflections of individual or common images, which explicate what is considered relevant from the perspective of an actor. Media Actors are surrounded by media, which enable them to undertake structural coupling. The media allow individual actors to couple by creating, forming, and exchanging representations of their individual images (Schmidt, 1998). In media, actors express and exchange their social experiences, wishes, and needs (Kooiman, 2003). They provide the arena in which autopoietic actors interact, which is referred to here as public sphere. Interaction as mutual orientation Interaction shall be defined as a mutually influencing relation between two or more actors or social systems (Go¨rlitz and Burth, 1998; Kooiman, 2003). Thus the perception and processing of stimuli affect both the addressed and re-affect the originating actor. In cybernetic terms, interaction is a process of balancing varieties between actors’ images: . . . [every] transaction, everywhere in the system, can be considered in terms of the variety equations that bear upon it (Beer, 1979).

But how does this happen? Most notably, interaction does not transmit variety (or meaning): . . . a set’s variety is not an intrinsic property of the set: the observer and his power of discrimination may have to be specified if the variety is to be well defined (Ashby, 1964).

Beer (1979) emphasizes the same point: it is “the observer, who defines the system [. . .] its variety”. Rather, actors orientate each other towards representations, and each of

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them creates his individual image that filters and interprets his perception of the representation. Meaning and variety then emerge from reference to the validity claims in each actor’s lifeworld. Validity claims may build upon personal beliefs contained in the Weltanschauung or assumptions about the behaviour of the counterpart to take alternative action. Thus, interaction triggers adaptation of actor’s images and is the means for challenging and initiating change in actors’ images through mutual orientation towards specific representations. Through interaction, actors are enabled to reconcile validity claims prevalent in their images. Referencing the validity claims contained in the image of an actor “A”, representations address corresponding validity claims in the image of another actor “B”. Both actors influence each other through their interpretation of the representation as a confirmation or rejection of their prevailing images. Whenever one of the two recognises differences between the representation and his prevailing image, he may conclude to either adapt or retain his persisting image. Intentional and contextual aspects of interaction An intentional (or action) and a contextual (or structural) aspect can be distinguished in interaction. Intentions reflect the capacity of actors to act and show how they relate to each other. The context determines the material, social, and cultural conditions for interaction and constrains actors’ activities. The intentional and contextual aspects of interaction can be understood as the two characteristic spheres, which determine ways of challenging governing images and thus influencing the manifestation of system behaviour. As Kooiman (2003) emphasised, these spheres mutually interfere, thus the expression of the intentional aspect does affect the contextual aspect and vice versa. Intentional or actor aspect of interaction. Actors do have the capacity to control the variation of their own actions. When selecting actions, intentions guide them. These manifest in goals, interests, and purposes and relate to the actor’s consciousness and identity (Kooiman, 2003). From a cybernetic viewpoint, the most important effect of an actor’s intention is the amplification and attenuation of variety. Intentions can be an impulse for generating variety, i.e. if they spur actors to enlarge their repertoire of behaviour for pursuing their goals, interests, and purposes. By develop their behavioural repertoire, intentions amplify the variety of states actors can adopt to respond to environmental fluctuations. Thus, individual actors acquire the capability of coping with larger sets of environmental perturbations. However, intentions can also reduce the variety of the environment by providing criteria for choosing a certain behaviour within an actor’s existing repertoire. For instance, this occurs when an actor vigorously pursues something in his environment based on a concrete image, which facilitates finding it and thus attenuates variety. Interests of individuals coalesce into goals for groups of actors or social systems. Hence, goals can be understood as shared intentions guiding actors when selecting their actions. In conclusion, the intentional aspect of interaction adds to and withdraws variety from systems according to its purpose. Contextual or structural aspect of interaction Intentions are always contextually situated. The contextual aspect of interaction refers to the stable and enduring patterns and conditions which ensure that social systems “don’t fall down and apart”[4]. It points to the material, social, and cultural matters

(Kooiman, 2003) as they manifest in the images of the actors participating in a social system. Such manifestations include Weltanschauungs, paradigms, patterns of communication, power distributions, material and technological possibilities. The contextual aspect refers to the structural constraints that prevail between actors in the external world. Structure points to the relationships that exist between entities, like roles, objects, or processes (Yolles, 1999). Moreover structure creates a “mode of solidarity” (Beer, 1979) between the actors of social systems and ensures that actors form safe assumptions about each others’ behaviour. Thus, structure enables actors to master social complexity (Malik, 1993). In contrast, intentions arise from within individual actors. Warnings and role-based directives are examples of interactions leaving liberty of variety generation to actors, yet at the same time constrain and direct them towards a certain direction (Beer, 1966). Regulating variety production with the contextual aspect of interaction corresponds to the self-organising capability of social systems. As Figure 2 shows, interaction occurs in the public sphere, i.e. where autonomous actors meet and couple by orientating each other towards representations (Yolles, 2003). Each actor then evolves his images by confronting his perception of the external world with his context and intentions, i.e. his individual experiences and worldviews referring to his lifeworld. Intentions determine the purpose of reconciliation between the actors involved. The context defines protocol and formalization of their conduct. Intentional and contextual aspects of interaction must intertwine to generate requisite variety. Successful interactions constantly catalyse or purify the variety provided within the social system. Each actor separately creates his images are; the process of image formation is operationally closed[5]. Actors behave exclusively based upon the specific reality conceptions deposited in their images. They create individual images, which may refer to the shared context of the lifeworld. By enabling reference to shared

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Figure 2. Image creation and representation

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validity claims, the lifeworld enables the accommodation of images between actors. Images are individual actors’ reality conceptions (Tu¨rke, 2005). Degrees of autonomy In structural coupling, actors create the twofold aspects solely according to their internal rationality. Each actor decides, based upon his image, whether he is willing to change or adapt his behaviour subsequently. By referring to their intentions, actors in social systems mutually stimulate each other to perform a limited amount of self-governance. However, their structural characteristics (such as lifeworld, language, culture, identity, rationality, etc.), determine whether they will perceive and how they will process stimuli. Action taking place in response to certain stimuli is not a determined outcome; rather alternative actions are chosen with a certain probability. Being autopoietic does not provide clues about the specific behavioural pattern social systems follow in coupling. It does not mean that parties always interact on equal basis. Instead how actors perceive each other depends on their individual perception of the environment, which arises from their internal structure and rationality (Go¨rlitz and Burth, 1998)[6]. In turn, the following types of interactions are required to model different degrees of influence exertion in social systems: interference, interplay, and intervention. Interferences are flexible and spontaneous societal interactions which actors apply to perform primary societal processes, such as maintaining a family, producing or selling a product, teaching a school class, playing in a string quartet, etc. Form and substance of interference activity are basically unlimited. They take place on equal basis, are generally informal, and involve only small number of actors. Governing with or within interferential interactions means letting others know what is going on, i.e. guiding the exchange, interpretation, and internalisation of information between those interacting. Organisation and rules play a minor role in interferences; they are the least organised kind of societal interactions. Interplays are horizontal and semi-formalised societal interactions. Their function is to engage actors collectively, co-operatively, rather than independently. They occur when actors realise that they are mutually dependent on each other for performing primary processes so they become willing to sacrifice part of their autonomy. Examples of interplays are elections and plebiscites, ballots, reconciliations or mediations between governing actors. Interventions are vertical and formalised societal interactions. Their main function is to exert formalised influence onto other actors within the context. Nevertheless, interventions remain mutual relations between the involved parties, as both the intervening actor and its counterpart are bound by the intervention. Examples of interventions are instructions, formal procedures, rules, incentives (Kooiman, 2003). Anticipation This chapter builds upon Logical Levels of Representation (LLR) (Tu¨rke, 2005) which provide a basis for formulating theoretical requirements to representations. It relies on Schwaninger’s Model of Systemic Control (Schwaninger, 1989, 2000, 2001) and merges it with Schedler’s Rationalities Model as applied in Public Management (Bru¨hlmeier et al., 2001; Schedler and Proeller, 2000).

The Model of Systemic Control is a cybernetic theory describing pre-control processes. It shows how pre-control can establish conditions that facilitate successful moment-to-moment tacit interactions in social systems. Therefore, it distinguishes three logical types of management: normative, strategic, and operative management, which are hierarchically embedded in one another. Each level is logically distinct from the others and provides meta-expressions towards the following. The normative level aims for legitimacy, i.e. the ability of social systems to match the demands of their key stakeholders. Ethos, culture, and social values are instruments that normative management uses to reconcile the internal and external demands of stakeholders assailing social systems. The strategic level seeks effectiveness, i.e. the capability of social systems to reconcile actors harmonically and to take the right steps for implementation. This depends on factors such as core competencies and critical success factors. Finally, the operative level addresses efficiency, i.e. the performance of the social system to fulfil its purposes. Key variables controlled at this level are productivity, profitability, and quality. The rationalities model is an archetype describing the process of image formation and approximation between politicians and managers in political-administrative systems. Two process cycles characterise the inherently different rationalities of politics and management need of reconciliation. In the politics cycle, policies are worded, goals are planned, and effects are measured, described, and evaluated – in turn affecting the formulation of policy. In the management cycle, goals are specified, implemented, executed, and goal-attainment and performance are measured and reported, which in turn affects the specification of goals. Rationalities meet at the intersection of the cycles, but do require translation due to their distinctness. Therefore, it is necessary to derive and translate aspects from the administrative system into the political system and vice versa. Pre-control in social systems is realised by adequately preparing and sensitising actors’ images to provide requisite variety in interaction. Representations can point to images but cannot reflect them comprehensively. They should be designed to provide requisite variety and to avoid reductionist perception and interpretation. Whenever actors orientate each other towards simplified representations of governing images, substantial aspects of the given situation may be ignored, inviting dangerous consequences for interactions. Figure 3 shows the merged model of LLR. It consists of three logical spheres of governance, each of which is distinct in rationality. This qualifies the model to furnish theoretical requirements for governing representations. Three types of representation address different aspects of images, respectively, a “ethos”, “polity” and “action” dimension. The circular processes broadly refer to the interactions required for the assimilation of the represented aspects between the levels. Each level uses a different logic and serves specific variety needs. By creating characteristic representations for each level, actors can express the respective dimensions in their images. By linking elements from all three levels, they can compose representations that provide requisite variety for referencing their images. The concrete set and type of interactions required is specified in the meta-systemic set of interactions described in the VSM, which is sketched in chapter five. Recapitulating, representations do express images. They are means for aligning images of actors within social systems. Exchanging them enables actors to anticipate

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Figure 3. LLR and their interplay

governing needs and stimulates them to challenge and refine their images. Distinguishing LLR allows configuring requisite variety representations. To do so, representations must provide reference to three logical levels, i.e.: (1) operational level; (2) strategic level; and (3) normative levels of governance. On each level actors create “images” about what their governing is about, choose “instruments” to reach what they want to accomplish and use “action” to implement the instruments chosen. Each logical level provides a characteristic explication of “images”, “instruments”, “actions” and “actors”. This enormously facilitates balancing variety in interactions. In the following, four basic types are distinguished: normative, strategic, operative, and tactical representations. Normative representations Normative representations (Figure 4) reference from or point to validity claims of the ethos in the images of their originators. The focus is on “images” and their relations to “instruments”, “actions” and “actors”, expressing what the social must do to produce its purpose and to reconcile the demands of its stakeholders. Meta-statements are provided for linking, understanding, classifying, annotating, judging, or criticising strategic representations. Normative representations allow actors to align their distinctions towards how they intend to arrange their relationships aiming at viability and development. Therefore, they assemble “images” that point to the ethos of the

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context and make explicit its visions, social values, norms and identity. Thus, they define the basic conditions for strategic “instruments”, “actions” and “actors” to flourish. The time horizon of normative representations is long-term or permanent. Strategic representations Strategic representations (Figure 5) reference from or point to validity claims of the polity or social world. They express what the actors of a social system should do and focus on describing “images” and “instruments” required to prepare implementation. Strategic representations provide outcome descriptions and point to the means to be applied for aspiring those outcomes (Schwaninger, 2001). The crux of strategic representations is that they anticipate trends and future events by pointing to variables that are pre-controlling the systems outputs, and their interrelationships (Schwaninger, 2001). “Actions” and “actors” elements of representations are referred to where necessary, but are generally out of focus. With strategic representations, actors balance and align how they intend to deploy their strengths and outcome potentials. Therefore, they provide meta-statements for annotating, classifying, judging, criticizing, or linking operative representations. The time horizon of strategic representations is medium-term. As soon as a final strategic representation (defining “images” and “instruments”, linking to “actions” and “actors”) has been reconciled, it provides the basis for all operative activity.

Figure 5. Strategic representations

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Operative representations Operative representations (Figure 6) reference from or point to validity claims of the action or external natural world in the governing image of their originators. Operative representations focus on “actions” and how these relate to “images”, “actors” and “instruments”. They express what the social system can do to produce its purpose. Thus, operative representations emphasize how “actions” can be conducted optimally by certain “actors” applying specific “instruments” to implement “images”. Links are created between “images”, “actors” and “instruments”, describing who applies which means for aspiring outputs (Schwaninger, 2001). The time horizon of operative representations is short-term. Tactical representations are specific operative-level representations focussing on “actors” and how these relate to “images”, “instruments” and “actions”. They express, what the social system actually does to produce its purpose. The focus is on how “actors” implement “images” by applying “instruments” in concrete “actions”. Therefore, a link is established from “actions” and “instruments” to “images”, describing which ways and means are applied for desired outputs (Schwaninger, 2001). Tactical representation are created concurrently, they do not have a time horizon. They can only be identified in relation to a known and precisely defined goal and do define the scope of action (Beer, 1994). Table I briefly sketches some manifestations of representation for each logical level. Viability The cybernetic concept of viability addresses the quest to make governing interactions productive and to achieve a sustainable development of social systems. It has been formalised by Beer, in the VSM (Adam, 2001; Beer, 1981, 1985, 1979) to express the prerequisites for social systems to maintain permanently viable within their environment. It is unilaterally applicable to any type of social system. It shows that a canon of intentional and contextual conditions is required to evolve viability. The following three sub-concepts sketch the central requirements for social systems to acquire viability: autonomy, recursion, and interaction. Recursion Through recursion, variety is distributed between different levels of an organization. Actors in recursive settings focus their attention to the specific level they engage in. To

Figure 6. Operative requirements

Strategic

“Image”

Normative goals, identities, ethos (culture, social values and norms), visions, purpose descriptions, paradigms, weltanschauung

Developmental and strategic goals, outcome descriptions, critical success factors, environmental constraints, future prospects, threats and opportunities Developmental and strategic “Instrument” Normative laws, decrees and regulations, mission statements, plans and programs, interplay protocols, methods and portfolio-analysis1, theories such as organizational SWOT-analysis2, value benefit learning, knowledge analysis3, resource disposability, management capability analysis “Action” Customs, etiquette, formalities, Aggregated, strategic activity descriptions, long and medium manners, protocols, rules of conduct, social code, social and term standard procedures Core competencies, actor “Actor” Concept and dignity of man, development and qualification, equality, status, social class, actor identity and profile, role recognition, fame, publicity descriptions, authorities

Normative

Tactical

Operative plans, process flows, schedules, concepts and procedures, resource allocations, contracts, operative controlling, accounting, performance and quality management Aggregated, operative activity descriptions, short term operating procedures and guidelines Task assignments, attendance and availability, training on the job

Commands, directives, instructions, indications, hints

Moment-to-moment tacit activity descriptions

Tactical plans and billboards, calendars, process descriptions, schedules, resource allocations, real time stock management and accounting

Tactical goals, task Operative goals, output descriptions, system’s capacity achievements, tacit knowledge, for change, operative knowledge operative experience

Operative

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Table I. Exemplary concepts indexed by types of representation in governance

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capture complexity, viability demands to look at social systems as recursive hierarchies. Actors are assigned to a certain level of recursion equivalent to their role within the social system. Media and the representations applied within them are then configured to reflect only those elements (i.e. goals, tasks, functions, responsibilities and resources) relevant for the description of the individual actors’ context.

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Autonomy The principle of autonomy states that only each system level disposes sufficient expertise and resources to cope with its environment and must, therefore, generate requisite variety to cope with it. Through autonomy, the maximum of variety is dissolved at the level of emergence. Thus, autonomy supports the maximization of freedom as far as this does not negatively affect the superordinated social system (Beer, 1979). Autonomy is a relative factor, determined according to the actual disturbances of the environment and the prevalent coherence of governing actors within the social system (Malik, 2002). Interaction The VSM states that a social system can only be viable if it disposes of a set of five governing functions. These functions define how actors relate to each other, which types of interactions they can undertake, and what constrains their behaviour. Each function can be understood as a role, which requires a specific interaction to be applied in order to acquire a specific variety balance within a fraction of the social system. Functions thus describe the meta-intentions, rules, and conditions required for viability. Basically, it can be subsumed that functions one, two and three conduct the operative management, function four, the strategic management, and function five, the normative management of the viable system. A specific set of interactions is identified and specified in the model for each of them. Jointly, the functions evolve the “necessary and sufficient conditions” (Beer, 1981; Malik, 2002; Schwaninger, 1999) for viability. Figure 7 shows the characteristic interferences, interplays and interventions required to meet these conditions. It is the canon of these interactions executing the different functions and triggering actors on the intentional and contextual level of interaction, which finally evolves viability in a social system. As follows, the functions are briefly sketched with reference to the respective interactions. Type one interactions. The systems one manages the primary activities, which produce the operative outcomes of the viable system. They are the nuclei of recursion within the model. Each is a viable system in itself on the next lower level of recursion. All consequences of being autonomous and able to maintain a separate existence do apply (Beer, 1979). The systems one interact with each other to reconcile upon aspects that are not relevant to the management of the overall system. Type two interactions. System two manages the interdependencies between the systems one (two-one interplay). Activities of the entities are harmonised and the consequences of the reconciliation process are transmitted into system three (two-to-three interference). System two fosters the self-organisation of the systems one and attenuates oscillations of their activities. Type three interactions. System Three manages the operations of the viable system (Beer, 1979). It is aligned to preserving the internal equilibrium, to harmonise and

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Figure 7. Interactions of a viable social system

optimise the viable system (internal arena of system three interplay). Therefore, it essentially concentrates on two tasks: managing the primary activities (three-one interplay, three-to-one intervention) with the intention to gain synergy and evaluating initiatives for innovation which are received by system four (three-four interplay). Furthermore, system three observes and validates information flows of and between

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the systems one via auditing and monitoring activities (three ( *)-to-one intervention) and specifies the protocol of system two activity (three-to-two intervention). Type four interactions. System Four is responsible for the adaptation of the system towards its overall environment, anticipating future developments. Therefore, it “simulates alternative strategies for its own future, in different possible scenarios” (Beer, 1989). The balance of the internal activities can only be sufficient for viability when the relevant external factors are considered (four-with-environment interference). Modelling and diagnosing the overall system in its environment is the focus of system four activity (internal arena of system four interplay). Based upon its findings, system four creates proposals for innovation and forwards them to system three (four-three interplay). Type five interactions. System five balances present and future as well as internal and external perspectives. Therefore, it moderates interactions between systems three and four. It is in charge of clarifying norms and values and defining purpose and the general strategy of the viable system (internal arena of system five interplay). System five creates what could be referred to as context, ground rules or ethos, and serves as frame of reference for common orientation (internal arena of system five interplay). The central tasks here are to secure the identity of the organisation (five-to-three intervention) and its role in the environment (five-to-four intervention). Further, system five observes the interplay between systems three and four (five-to-(three-four) interference). Conclusion The important aspect delivered by new technologies is not the organisation of data and information exchange but the conduct of interaction. Today, electronic media provide means to model and conduct interactions in almost any conceivable form. They take over a key role in the continuous creation and assimilation of images in social systems. Theoretically, any type and process of two-way mediated interaction has become feasible. This opportunity deeply affects governing interactions; they become mouldable – primarily on a technical level. As a consequence, the structure of governing interactions should become a vital aspect: what can media provide to support and facilitate interactions of governing actors? Of at least equal importance, how should they be designed to do so? Consequently, the design of media must take the characteristics of governance into consideration if it is to promote governance (Winograd and Flores, 1987). It should be suited to facilitate and improve social interactions. Therefore, the structure of media needs to build upon a theoretical notion of governance, social systems, and media, which is capable of coping with the demands of highly complex, diverse, and dynamic social systems. Cybernetic and systems theories provide valuable contributions for capturing the complexity inherent in interaction identifying and addressing the specific needs required. The spotlight provided here should have shown that answers to the question of structure for media do exist. The cybernetic toolkit allows the analysis and proactive design of media arrangements according to their ability: . to handle complexity; . to create potent representations;

. . .

to enable actors to anticipate important governing issues; to conduct successful interactions; and to promote viability throughout all interactions performed.

The application of these conceptual tools fosters the provision of requisite variety to actors’ images in social systems by linking and integrating the relevant aspects of interaction. Ongoing research in this field should pick up these stimuli and assess them empirically. The aspects presented here will be assembled into an integrated framework that describes the preconditions for media to promote governance. Notes 1. The term of “eGovernance” is new in the international scientific discussion. For this reason no consensual understanding or conceptual demarcation yet exists (Perri, 2003; Reinermann and Lucke, 2001). 2. This concept of social system applied here builds upon Maturana’s understanding which includes actors and interactions (Maturana, 1980). This approach is analytically distinct from other interpretations, which limit social systems to “communications” as done most notably by Luhmann (1984, 2002). 3. It is important to note that the concept actor does not refer to human beings as organisms but to human beings as autopoietic actors capable to undertake structural couplings in the under-standing used here. A central characteristic of autopoietic systems is their capability to repro-duce their elements. This criterion is not met with actors as human beings. 4. Gordon, J.E.: Structures, Harmondsworth, 1978 as cited in Kooiman (2003). 5. For a detailed description of the role of images and representations in cognition (Maturana and Varela, 1985, Chapters 6 and 7). 6. See also Maturana’s remarks on dominance-relations as a consequence of interactions be-tween animals, in Maturana and Varela (1985). References Adam, M. (2001), Lebensfa¨higkeit sozialer Systeme, Difo-Druck, Bamberg. Ashby, W.R. (1964), An Introduction to Cybernetics, Chapman & Hall, London. Beer, S. (1966), Decision and Control: The Meaning of Operational Research and Management Cybernetics, Wiley, London. Beer, S. (1979), The Heart of the Enterprise, Wiley, New York, NY. Beer, S. (1981), Brain of the Firm, Wiley, New York, NY. Beer, S. (1984), “The viable system model: its provenance, development, methodology and pathology”, in Espejo, R. and Harnden, R. (Eds), The Viable System Model – Interpretations and Applications of Stafford Beer’s VSM, Wiley, New York, NY, pp. 7-25. Beer, S. (1985), Diagnosing the System for Organisations – Companion Volume to Brain of the Firm and The Heart of Enterprise, Wiley, New York, NY. Beer, S. (1989), “National government: disseminated regulation in real time, or ‘How to run a country’”, in Espejo, R. and Harnden, R. (Eds), The Viable System Model – Interpretations and Applications of Stafford Beer’s VSM, Wiley, New York, NY.

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Beer, S. (1994), Beyond Dispute: The Invention of Team Syntegrity, Wiley, Chichester. Bru¨hlmeier, D., Haldemann, T., Mastronardi, P. and Schedler, K. (2001), Politische Planung – Mittelfristige Steuerung in der wirkungsorientierten Verwaltungsfu¨hrung, Haupt, Stuttgart. Go¨rlitz, A. and Burth, H.P. (1998), Politische Steuerung – Ein Studienbuch, Leske & Budrich, Opladen. Habermas, J. (1981a), Theorie des kommunikativen Handelns Volume 1, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt. Habermas, J. (1981b), Theorie des kommunikativen Handelns, Volume 2, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt. Kooiman, J. (2003), Governing as Governance, Sage, London. Luhmann, N. (1984), Soziale Systeme – Grundriss einer allgemeinen Theories Suhrkamp, Frankfurt a.M. Luhmann, N. (1984), Die Politik der Gesellschaft, 1 edn, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt a.M. Malik, F. (1993), “Understanding a knowledge organisation as a viable system”, in Espejo, R. and Schwaninger, M. (Eds), Organizational Fitness, Corporate Effectiveness through Management Cybernetics, Campus, Frankfurt, pp. 93-115. Malik, F. (2002), Strategie des Managements komplexer Systeme – Ein Beitrag zur Management-Kybernetik evolutiona¨rer Systeme, Haupt, Stuttgart. Maturana, H. (1980), “Auto poiesis, communication and society”, in Benseler, F., Heji, P.M. and Ko¨ck, W. (Eds), Autopoiesis, Com-munication and Society: the Theory of Autopoietic System in the Social Sciences, Campus, Frankfurt a.M., New York, NY. Maturana, H. and Varela, F. (1985), El arbol del conocimiento: Las bases biolo´gicas del conocimiento humano, Editorial Debate, Santiago. Perri, S. (2003), “eGovernance: Weber’s revenge?”, in Dowding, K.M. and Margetts, H. (Eds), Challenges to Democracy: Ideas, Involvement and Institutions, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, NY. Reinerman, H. and Lucke, J. (2001), Speyerer Definition von eGovernance, Forschungsprojekt Regieren und Verwalten im informationszeitalter, Speyer. Schedler, K. and Proeller, I. (2000), New Public Management, Haupt, Bern. Schmidt, S.J. (1998), “Medien: Die Kopplung von Kommunikation und Kognition”, in Kra¨mer, S. (Ed.), Medien, Computer, Realita¨t: Wirklichkeitsvorstellungen in neuen Medien, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt, pp. 55-72. Schwaninger, M. (1989), Integrale Unternehmensplanung, Campus, Frankfurt. Schwaninger, M. (1999), “Das Modell Lebensfa¨higer Systeme – Ein Strukturmodell fu¨r organisationale Intelligenz, Lebensfa¨higkeit und Entwicklung”, Discussion paper, Institute of Management, University of St Gallen, available at: wwwpubinhalteeng/ ifb+discussion+papers">www.ifb.unisg.ch/org/IfB/ifbweb.nsf/wwwPubInhalteEng/ IfB þ Discussion þ Papers Schwaninger, M. (2000), “Managing complexity: the path towards intelligent organizations”, System Practise and Action Research, Vol. 13 No. 2, pp. 207-41. Schwaninger, M. (2001), “Intelligent organizations: an integrative framework”, Systems Research and Behavioural Science, Vol. 18 No. 2, pp. 137-58. Schwaninger, M. (2004), “What can cybernetics contribute to the conscious evolution of organisations and society?”, Systems Research and Behavioural Science, Vol. 21 No. 5, pp. 515-27.

Tu¨rke, R-E. (2005), “E-governance. Building blocks for theory”, E-governance: Challenges and Opportunities for Democracy, Administration and Law, Proceedings of the Seoul Congress, International Institute for Administrative Science (IIAS/IISA), Seoul, July 2004. Willke, H. (2000), Systemtheorie I: Grundlagen, UTB Lucius&Lucius, Stuttgart. Winograd, T. and Flores, F. (1987), Understanding Computers and Cognition: A New Foundation for Design, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Yolles, M. (1999), Management Systems – A Viable Approach, Financial Times Management, San Francisco, CA. Yolles, M. (2003), “Viable systems theory, anticipation and logical levels of management”, Conference proceedings for International Conference on Creativity and Complexity, London School of Economics, London, available at: www.psych.lse.ac.uk/complexity/Conference/ MauriceYollesPaper.pdf About the author Ralf-Eckhard Tu¨erke is a Consultant and a Doctoral Student at the University of St Gallen, Switzerland. He holds a joint Master’s degree in Business Administration and Mechanical Engineering and is a trained mediator. During his studies, he spent two years supporting organizations in Argentina, Great Britain, and Spain. He has been a Consultant for Public Management and governance in Kelkheim, Germany, since 1997. He can be contacted at: [email protected]

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The Praxis Centre, Leeds Metropolitan University, Leeds, UK Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a more holistic approach to analysing the impact of all the behaviour of a conflict’s participants its overall dynamics, using the example of the Northern Irish troubles. Design/methodology/approach – A novel multivariate time series approach developed by Professor Paul Smoker is presented which can map the dynamics of this conflict and its causal inferences as a series or “systemograms”. Findings – The case example reveals high levels of autocorrelation in the variety of techniques used by the state security authorities to suppress terrorism, indicating their strong role in maintaining this conflict. When more than one party exhibits such behaviour, the conflict “locks in”. Research limitations/implications – The work remains preliminary and historical. Data was collected on a month-by-month basis which suggests associated rather than direct causal influence. It would be useful to further explore these findings using data from similar conflicts. Practical implications – Suggests that some counter-terrorism approaches may be dysfunctional especially those adopting sub-lethal weapons. Provides some insight into behavioural changes required to prevent conflict destabilisation. Originality/value – Provides a novel conflict research methodology which allows the strong structural dynamics of the conflict to be seen – much the way that elapsed time photography enables hidden processes to be revealed. The raw statistics are presented here. Keywords Cybernetics, Time series analysis, Conflict management, Northern Ireland Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction This paper is essentially an introduction to a new methodology which uses multivariate time series analyses to examine some of the hidden dynamics of the Northern Irish conflict from 1969 to 1981. It draws on the conceptual work of one of the pioneers of peace research, the late Professor Paul Smoker, to describe systemic conflict relationships between all the parties to this conflict. Using some of the most comprehensive statistical documentation ever compiled on an internal conflict, the methodology reveals the highly structured nature of this conflict over a sustained period of time. The paper and its ancillary web sites present not only the data archive, but also make public the univariate, bivariate and multivariate time series programmes used to make the analyses, for the first time. The outputs are presented in the form of descriptions of associated influence or “systemograms” which can describe the dynamic and changing conflict ecology where

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 182-194 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640308

An earlier version of this paper was prepared in conjunction with Professor Dave Webb of Praxis for the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Conference, Analysing Conflict and its Resolution, Oxford University, June 2004. The author wishes to thank Nick Green whose enthusiasm about presenting some of these research findings helped him to produce this paper, and to Stafford Beer who earlier helped in deciding how to present such a conflict systems approach.

apparently disparate conflict behaviour such as house searches, plastic bullet firings and the killing of military personnel, are highly correlated. Measures of autocorrelation are used to suggest a loss of freedom in the actions of particular conflict participants. Particular attention is given to the use of “less-lethal weapons” and their impact on overall conflict dynamics. What emerges is that sectarian killings form a distinct conflict subset, whereas the counter-insurgency behaviour of the state security forces act as a conflict driver, ratchetting up the conflict as each more severe phase of the counter-insurgency programme is introduced. The paper attempts to introduce a more holistic or whole systems conflict approach which is both dynamic and puzzling, since in many paradoxical respects, it indicates co-operation between the various participants to carry on the conflict at a systemic level. A further concept which remains under explored is that of time level. Like elapsed time photography using different speeds to enable hidden processes to be revealed, the multivariate time series approach allows the in connectivity of the conflict’s participants to be studied at different time levels. In nature many processes can only be seen if that right time level is accessed. This technique permits further exploration of that concept in regard to conflict. The provisional lessons of this study are that sub-state conflict control measures can prove dysfunctional, especially when new technologies are used to attack combatants and civilians alike. The author represents it at this time simply because it potentially opens up the prospect of repeating the research methodology in other sub-state conflicts such as Israel and Iraq, if reliable data were ever to become available. It is also timely because of a push by US military planners, to redefine international law – in such a way that it permits the application of sub-lethal weaponry during sub-state conflicts at a level and on a scale which we have never seen before. 2. Background The roots of this paper lie in work first undertaken when the author was a postgraduate student at the Richardson Institute, at the University of Lancaster, nearly three decades ago. The early research originally reported in the Journal of Peace Research (JPR) in 1978 outlined a series of nine hypotheses on how sub-lethal acts by state security forces, might dysfunctionally alter a conflict’s dynamics in ways which led to a loss of control (Wright, 1978). The first challenge was to find sufficient and accurate data on a conflict to test the nine hypotheses outlined in the JPR report and then to design a methodology capable of describing inferred causal influences. Fortunately, the Director of the Richardson Institute during that time, the late Professor Paul Smoker, had pioneered the use of new methodologies to examine the ways in which conflict processes could lock in. His time series study of the Sino-Indian conflict during the 1960s (Smoker, 1969) is seminal. Also instructive was Smoker’s creative approaches to locating suitable data. According to one surreal account, he found the raw statistics for his Sino-Indian Study in the bins outside the Indian embassy where the bound telex exchanges between China and India were waiting to be cast away. He used this unique treasure trove of statistics to show that it was possible to use time series analysis of just two variables (the frequency and length of these respective telex messages), to predict when this conflict would break down.

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Smoker was a founding pioneer of quantitative and simulation approaches in peace and conflict research and he was willing to adapt his Sino-Indian work to the much more complex task of examining the interaction and associated influences of scores of variables over different time levels. Part of that work was written up as a PhD thesis (Wright, 1987); some of it found its way into one of the first volumes on quantitative perspectives on terrorism (Wright, 1981). However, apart from a passing reference to the work in a report for the European Parliament’s Scientific and Technological Options Assessment Unit on approaches to testing and assessing the hidden social and political impacts of technologies of political control in 1998 (Wright, 1998), the work lay moribund and too complicated and problematic to excite peace researchers not enthused by mathematics. The author was working on proofs of the 1978 Journal of Peace Research article referred to above when the secret police carried out their first raid on a British University trying to root out anyone who knew about the then top secret echelon system of mass telecommunications interception. The time series research was the only documentation they left behind – perhaps a telling negative indicator of the political utility of quantitative methods? But for 9/11, the work may have continued to gather dust. However, the new US strategies of ignoring international law, the emergence of new polices seeking to target civilians and combatants together with new weapons technology and the dysfunctional effects of the current military containment strategies in the Middle-East including Iraq and Israel, provoked the author to re-understand the challenge of attempting to quantify or even accurately describe, implied causal inferences in complex conflict dynamics. The following presentation, data, programmes and analyses should not be viewed as finished piece of work but more as a demonstration or illustration of an approach to those whom we hope can reassess their implications and limitations from a deeper understanding of statistics than the author possesses. In many senses this is a tribute and a plea to continue the creative work of Paul Smoker, whose imagination created the methodologies which are applied to illustrate this study. It is, however, argued that a whole systems approach is essential if we are to understand why certain peacekeeping functions and approaches do not work. 3. Testing hypotheses on destabilizing conflict processes in Northern Ireland The hypotheses outlined in Wright (1978) were originally designed to examine the hidden and longer term impacts of so-called “less-lethal weapons” such as plastic bullets – an area of armaments which has subsequently become much more significant as the US and other states develop new technologies for fighting asymmetric warfare after 9/11. In short, the theory went like this “In certain circumstances, the use of less-lethal weapons may be considered as an over corrective response.” Through a cybernetic process of destabilizing feedback, over corrective responses can bring about an opposite effect to the one intended. Instead of containment, an over corrective response would lead towards an induction of uncontrollable conflict and further polarization. Thus attempts to control a situation with over corrective responses are thwarted because in effect the resulting system works against itself. This early study argued that the impact effectiveness of such technological\fixes would decline over time so

that increasing amounts would be required to obtain the same powers of control. If powers of control were lost in this way, then a resurgence of the phenomena under control might develop as the fix lost potency. If the underlying dynamics were not realized, reliance on ever more powerful fixes would prove counterproductive as such cycles of destabilization would repeat themselves. The paper argued that even if these hypotheses were true, it was likely that in the short term such weapons would appear to be an effective means of crowd control. The possibility that they constitute a destabilizing factor in a conflict might only be revealed by a study which correlated their effects on a range of indicators for longer periods of time.

One methodological challenge was that an input of aggression into a conflict by one party during one point in time which results in an output of retaliatory aggression at another period of time, the form in which this output manifests itself might be quite different from the form of input. The British Army in Northern Ireland had adopted strategies from their Land War Operations Volume 111 which were essentially “counter-revolutionary operations”. A key concern here therefore was that if a successively more oppressive set of phased counter-insurgency strategies comprised the software which programmed the behaviour of the dominant system of socio political control, then a self generating conflict could ensue. Thus the introduction of the second most severe phase of the counter-insurgency techniques may be legitimated through the waves of violent retaliation amplified by the use of less-lethal weapons during the first phase. Subsequently, phase two is likely to generate further dissent, which if handled by even more severe riot weapon deployment, may destabilize the situation sufficiently to legitimate the introduction of phase three and so on. Of course there were other factors and approaches applied which also played a role such as the coercive mechanisms used to facilitate internment without trial and the high levels of abuse suffered by the detainees. The parallels with the current conflict in Iraq and Israel reveal similar dynamics but with rather more lethal than less lethal force being deployed. The sickening images of Abu Ghraib remind us that the sensory deprivation techniques using hooding and violent softening up treatments have transformed into standard operating procedures. But the concerns here are similar in that if the authorities fail to realize the impacts of their chosen conflict containment approaches, they risk having to deploy the entire gamut of the counter-insurgency spectrum of operations, in a manner tantamount to self-fulfilment. For Northern Ireland, even a crude time point analysis of political killings graphed against changes in socio-political control tactics, appeared to support this thesis (Figure 1). Of course in the case of the Northern Ireland conflict, the authorities were willing to release detailed statistical data. In Iraq, the coalition forces merely count their own dead and have refused to do body counts on killed oppositional forces or civilians caught in the crossfire for fear of raising echoes of Vietnam. However, one study published in the Lancet in October 2004 suggests nearly 100,000 casualties (http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf). 4. Data considerations Clearly, establishing the statistics of any sub-state conflicts is always going to be problematic: Northern Ireland was no different, almost every provider of information

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Figure 1. Military counter insurgency phases and political killings in Northern Ireland

might be accused of having a partisan view. The problem with the first crude model was that its description was based on the changes in only one empirical conflict indicator, namely the overall death count. It was, however, fruitful in suggesting that there were unforeseen relationships between state and non-state conflict activities which could be measured. It also provides a rudimentary framework to consider such changes. It also implied that the influence of a conflict action may persist within a conflict system, long after the event. The challenge in attempting to develop even a basic holistic approach to just describing the Northern Irish conflict raised fundamental questions about how to select representative conflict indicators, how to find such data and how could substantial amounts of information on this conflict be presented in a meaningful way? The challenge was not just academic since any commentator on this conflict and others of its ilk is likely to draw fire because of inferred political bias. Paul Smoker saw a clear need for the process of interpretation to be clearly separated from the actual conflict description so that subjective bias could be eliminated as far as possible. We decided to pick variables that characterised incidents which most people would regard as being symptomatic of internal war. These included activities of state security personnel (such as house and vehicle searches, gas and plastic bullets fired, internment; paramilitary activists (shooting attacks, bomb explosions, Catholics assassinated, protestants assassinated, state security personnel (army, RUC and UDR) killed or wounded, kneecappings, etc.) and civilian victims of the conflict processes (e.g. civilians killed and wounded). Few other studies at the time had anything like this data – except perhaps for the Italian studies on terrorism published by Carlton and Scaherf (1981) but these had nothing like the level and frequency of events which characterised the Northern Irish troubles. Taken together, these variables provide a significant measure of the Northern Ireland conflict’s level and intensity. The data was collected from official sources such

as the Northern Ireland Office, and the British Army and RUC Press Offices in the form of a monthly breakdown from 1969 to 1981. The full dataset and source references are provided here for the first time (www.imresearch.org/PraxisCentre/NIrelandStudy). Of course all such conflict data are problematic since each “event” is a summation of a much richer set of conflict processes and it is more usual for conflict participants to disagree on conflict statistics than agree (Omega Foundation, 2003) in regard to baton round figures, for example). However, it is arguable that this conflict is better documented than almost any other of its type and provides researchers with a unique framework to understand more about the conflict dynamics at work in what is now known as military operations other than war (MOUT).

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5. Some methodological considerations Briefly, the univariate TSA enables a description of the level of influence which any variable’s past behaviour exerts on that variables subsequent activity. This autocorrelation measure as it is termed provides an important indicator of emergent processes especially a loss of freedom. Highly auto-correlated behaviour is especially important since it is often associated with episodes where conflict participants lock in to their own conflict behaviour and become less responsive to actions of other conflict actors. In Figure 2, for example, a univariate time series analysis of riot munitions (CS gas cartridges, grenades and rubber bullets) shows not just highly predictable behaviour but also consistent mean level moving averages over considerable periods of time, as if the supply itself was the greatest determinant of the number of sub-lethal munitions fired. The bivariate TSA enables a description to be made of the influence one variable’s behaviour has on another, or more precisely, it provides a measure of the extent to which processes associated with the formation of variable A are implicated in the processes associated with the formation of variable B.

Figure 2. High levels of autocorrelation and associated “Loss of Freedom” in riot weapon use

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The multivariate TSA is a more complex technique, created to display the extent to which one variable’s behaviour is implicated in the influences responsible for generating all the others, as it and they change over time. More precisely, it quantifies the overall connectivity of the influences generating all the variables; a measure of the strength of particular linkages together with an indication of the direction of any flows of associated influence which are revealed. Smoker designed the technique as a multivariate cluster time series analysis, that is an amalgam of two different techniques, i.e. a clustering procedure and a time series analysis procedure. The clustering procedure is essentially a form of typal analysis derived from the work of McQuitty (1957). As a component of this methodology it is used to define each variable’s time series as a member of a type, if its behaviour is more like the behaviour of other members of that type than it is like anything else. The time series components are derived from the works of Smoker (1969), Quenouille (1952) and Wold (1949). The time series element serves to ascertain the direction and strength of any associated influences flowing within and between variables. The technical conventions, concepts and measures used to perform these measures together with the technical methodologies for interpreting the results are provided in our Praxis web site for those who wish to undertake a more detailed scrutiny (www.imresearch.org/ PraxisCentre/NIrelandStudy). The web site also provides detailed instruction on constructing a map of all these influences from the output of the multivariate TSA. This is an important element of this approach, since the descriptive systems map of flows of associated influences or “systemograms” can then be compared with other conflict data to make comparisons and evaluations of the impact of policies or any particular episode or activity on the overall conflict dynamics. The actual process of drawing out the “systemograms” is laboriously time consuming. However, in 1985, a research student at UMIST, Walker (1985) managed to semi-automate the process and this work is also available for anyone interested in taking such work further. 6. Mapping key participants contributions to a conflict’s dynamics Mapping out the associated influence of key indicative variables of all the representative participants in a conflict, provides a more systemic picture of the conflict and enables us to at least describe the level and extent to which participants are actually cooperating to structure and maintain their conflict behaviour. It also enables us to identify the highly auto-correlated activities of any group which has in effect become autistic, being most influenced by their own behaviour rather than any of the other conflict participants. For the purpose of this study, a complete output of systemograms for time series 24, has been created on the associated url (www.imresearch.org/PraxisCentre/NIrealndStudy). Here we will discuss only some of the structures and sub-systems emerging from a typical sequence and how this methodology could be applied to other conflicts experiencing similar forms of conflict behaviour. In many ways, the multivariate systemogram approach enables a broad trawl of the data sets to actually identify highly structured behaviour. In practice, sub-systems emerge either between or within variable clusters as a consequence of undertaking this tracking exercise on the “systemograms”. Variables within each sub-system develop certain patterns which sustain as typical features within each systemogram. These can be characterised as follows.

Active variables which have only strands of influence emanating out from them. They act on other variables rather than being significantly acted upon themselves; reactive variables have only strands of influence feeding into them; mixed variables both give and receive influence from other variables; interactive variables neither receive or give influence but correspond their influence with other variables to which they are linked; highly auto-correlated variables which feed a large part of their influence back into themselves indicating a pattern of self generation. Such variables are easy to spot in the systemograms since they are represented by conspicuous concentric circles or semi-circles. Eyeballing an illustrative systemogram sequence is perhaps the best way to understand this methodology.

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7. An illustrative systemogram sequence If the conflict time sequence contained in www.imresearch.org/PraxisCentre/ NIrealndStudy, is examined systemogram by sytemogram, it is possible to discover whether the changing influence processes between different variables or within variable clusters are growing stronger or weaker. The change in the strength of the systemic process is revealed by the change in the level of correlation over selected time periods. Strengthening processes are associated with an increase in the level of correlation, whilst processes which are weakening, exhibit a decline in the level of correlation. The systemograms used here (Figures 3 and 4) are provided simply to illustrative the methodological approach but a full analysis can potentially determine whether any political, military or NGO decision, policy or tactic is significant by empirically establishing when the particular “event” entered the sequence. If we define the influence horizon of an event as being the time period limit of the systemogram when its influence is first felt, the relevant systemogram TP ¼ t 2 n þ L.

Figure 3. Systemogram

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Figure 4. Systemogram 2

Where t ¼ the chronological number of the appropriate month; n ¼ the series length and L ¼ the maximum time lag used. For example, if we are interested in discovering whether or not the decision to introduce internment produced a measurable influence on the dynamics of the conflict, then we can find the first relevant systemogram if we know the following: t ¼ August 1971 ( ¼ 12 þ 12 þ 8) ¼ 32 n ¼ 24 (in this illustrative sequence) L ¼ 2 (in this particular study) TP ¼ 32 2 24 þ 2 ¼ systemogram 10 In systemogram 1, the most significant patterns of influence to emerge concern reactive variables, all of which are strongly auto-correlated. These include the process of vehicle searches (81); house searches (75) bomb explosions (93) and shooting incidents (89). By systemogram 5, these processes have structured with strong links between them. Bomb explosions and house searches are mutually influencing each other and bomb explosions are actively influencing vehicles searched (83). Some of these links confirm common sense – e.g. its natural to up searches of vehicles if bomb attacks are taking place but in systemogram 1 baton round firings are strongly acting on military killed (93). This is an interesting finding since traditionally any killing of military personnel is usually associated with punitive house searches, e.g. not just in Northern Ireland but in Iraq and Israel where the military action is so severe, that civilian houses are destroyed. In this first sytemogram, military killed is empirically described as actively influencing houses searched (87 þ 84). By systemogram 9, CS fired forms a separate cluster, reacting to the influence from Republican Internment (74 and 55); baton rounds are driving influence towards bomb

explosions (75), which continues to drive influence into house searches. The assassination of Protestants and Catholics has become interactively linked (88) as military personnel killed continues to drive influence towards vehicles searched (82) as both variables yield high levels of autocorrelation (84 and 80, respectively) suggesting that these aspects of the conflict processes have become self organising structures. (A full preliminary breakdown is provided in Wright (1987).) If we tabulate the auto-correlated variables across the entire time sequence (Figure 5), we should expect a conflict “lock in” when several of the different conflict participant groups manifest some degree of autistic behaviour as measured by highly auto-correlated variables. In fact a series of “lock ins” emerges. At the beginning of the conflict, government searching and firing of CS was locked in with paramilitary bombings; shooting and killing of army personnel, until time period 25. A short phase of lock in emerges from the period 25 to 33 and then another from time period 33 to 44 and so on. According to Beer (1980):

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. . . this is a system in homeostatic equilibrium. Each part is structuring the other. So the structuring goes mutually on. If one part stops in this creative, evolutionary process, then the whole system breaks down. In Northern Ireland terms that is, the war is over.

Exactly why so many of the British Army reactions developed such highly deterministic traits is a question which must be answered by future studies. Obviously military behaviour, by definition is variety reducing and incorporates standard operating procedures which can be systematically taught. The physical survival of urban guerrilla activists on the other hand, often literally depends on their unpredictability. The “variety increasing” aspects of their behaviour enables them to remain effective, alive and at large. The key issue here is of course the possibility that certain military doctrines are actually dysfunctional – in other words conflict exacerbating rather than conflict resolving.

Figure 5. “Lock In” profiles of Northern Ireland conflict participants 1969-1981

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The presence of so much self-legitimating behaviour in the activities of military personnel should be of concern. Traditional counter-terrorist theories suggest such wars must be fought by taking out the hard men. Yet when freedom of decision is lost in the military group of participants on the level described above, the efficacy of such an approach to conflict resolution must be deeply questioned. The range of associated activities in this process appear to have just as much efficacy in evolving more hard men to get. 8. Conclusions Having said that, it must be acknowledged that such quantitative approaches to whole systems conflict analysis are fraught with difficulties and their findings can seem opaque to non statisticians – including most policy makers. Anecdotal analyses is much easier to churn out and is far more accessible to sound-bite formation. Indeed any conference bringing the approaches of mathematical and conflict analyses together in system’s terms is unusual. Richardson’s conflict models are much less well known today that his weather forecasting equations – perhaps because with the advent of computers, his erstwhile laborious log calculations can now be instantly converted into understandable weather pictures that most of us can grasp (Richardson, 1960). So few people work in these fields. A 1996 analysis of terrorism research in terms of the evolution of a body of knowledge, identified just 32 major members of the community (Reid, 1997). And the majority of these contributors make qualitative rather than quantitative contributions. Of course after 9/11, the media appetite for terrorist and conflict experts has been voracious but few new quantitative approaches are emerging except at the most basic death count level. Of course there has emerged a plethora of chronologies – many of which are open to challenge about objectivity and reliability. And even that is revealing since as was mentioned earlier in the ongoing Iraq conflict, the coalition partners would appear not to be as seriously documenting non coalition casualties, or at least not outside the prisons where different agendas for documenting conflict activities prevail. A key question is utility. What can such studies tell us or reveal that is not more accessible from more anecdotal- or story-based analyses? The short answer is they can yield tremendous insight into the hidden structuring of conflict processes. This becomes increasingly important as the tactics and technologies being offered for asymmetrical warfare alter not only the casualty count but also the selection of who becomes a designated casualty. Nevertheless, such statistical studies need to be capable of showing a facility for generating testable hypotheses. A concern of this study has been to put reliable conflict data in the public domain for use by other researchers to do so. This sharing is slowly helping to birth new approaches. For example, White and Falkenberg-White, in a ground breaking piece of research applied regression analysis to some of the data collated here and discovered that deaths caused by loyalist paramilitaries increased the number of persons killed by British soldiers. They concluded that one explanation for this curious finding given that mostly of those killed by the army were Catholics, might be evidence of “some kind of co-ordinated activity between Loyalist paramilitaries and members of the security services” (White and Falkenberg White, 1995). Whilst there is evidence now since 2002 to support such claims – especially in the light of the Steakknife double

agent fiasco, at other moments alternative agendas have emerged including protecting key members of Sein Fein to ensure the peace process was not derailed (Moloney, 2002). A further possibility as yet not followed, is that other, ostensibly independent variables may be systematically linked to conflicts in ways which seem counter-intuitive. It is often remarked that more people have died in car accidents in Northern Ireland than in the troubles themselves, but no real research on possible hidden links has emerged yet. This methodology would enable other, less obvious conflict pathways to be measured and initially described and this would certainly be an area where even in conflict ridden countries such as Israel or Iraq, good data in principle may be sought. Many of the counter-insurgency spasm wars which are characterising the early part of this century in Afghanistan, Israel and Iraq, are generating similar activities to the conflict in Northern Ireland: shooting incidents, car bombing episodes, civilians and military personnel killed, house and vehicle searches and internment, abuse and torture of suspected terrorists. If the authorities ever release their weekly or monthly statistical data on these wars, it would be worth establishing whether similar dysfunctional conflict structures and conflict “lock-ins” emerged. In conclusion, we have entered a time when public presentation and information management are as much a part of conflict processing, as implementing military theories of peace keeping and conflict reconciliation. During periods of military intervention, the costs of following a misinformed policy are huge, yet the level of efforts and resources devoted to independent conflict assessment and monitoring activity are minuscule. During future periods of conflict, we need to find a way of more independently collecting the raw data of war if we are ever to effectively evaluate existing policies, especially the new “wars against terror”. Without such objectivity we are all prey to propaganda. The important lesson from Northern Ireland is that if we are to truly understand future armed conflict dynamics, accurate data is paramount. There needs to be much more pressure on governments to provide it and to set up structures which enable sufficient accountability for modern states to be legally challenged about the veracity of their statistical conflict data. The challenge to future researchers is to create descriptions and simulations of war which have sufficient truth content to challenge. One day we may even have an official operations research programme dedicated to sustaining peace. References Beer, S. (1980), Letter to S. Wright from Stafford Beer, 22 August. Carlton, D. and Scaherf, C. (Eds) (1981), Contemporary Terror: Studies in Sub-state Violence, Macmillan, London. McQuitty, L. (1957), “Elementary linkage analysis for isolating both orthogonal types & typal relevancies”, Educational & Psychological Measurements, Vol. 17, pp. 207-29. Moloney, E. (2002), “Panorama missed the real story of collusion in Ulster”, Daily Telegraph, 25 June. Omega Foundation (2003), “Baton rounds: a review of the human rights implications of the introduction and use of the L2A1 baton”, Round, Northern Ireland and Proposed Alternatives to the Baton Round, Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission, Belfast, April. Quenouille, M.H. (1952), Associated Measurements, Academic Press, New York, NY.

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Reid, E.O.F. (1997), “Evolution of a body of knowledge: an analysis of terrorism research”, Information Processing and Management, Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 91-106. Richardson, L.F. (1960), Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, Quadrangle Books, Chicago, IL. Smoker, P. (1969), “A time series analysis of Sino-Indian relations”, J. of Conflict Research, Vol. 13 No. 2, pp. 172-91. Walker, T.J.V. (1985), “Automated plotting of complex multivariate time series analysis systemograms”, dissertation BSc in Computation, UMIST, Manchester. White, R.W. and Falkenberg White, T. (1995), “Repression and the liberal state: the case of Northern Ireland, 1969-1972”, J. of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 39 No. 2, pp. 330-52. Wold, H. (1949), “On least squares regression with auto correlated variables & residuals”, Proceedings of the International Statistics Institute, Berne, Switzerland. Wright, S. (1978), “New police technologies: an exploration of the social implications and unforeseen impacts of some recent developments”, J. of Peace Research, Vol. 15 No. 4, pp. 305-22. Wright, S. (1981), “A multivariate time series analysis of the Northern Irish conflict, 1969-1976”, in Alexander, J. and Gleason, J.M. (Eds), Behavioural and Quantitative Perspectives on Terrorism, Permagon Press, New York, NY, pp. 283-328. Wright, S. (1987), “New police technologies & sub-state conflict control”, PhD thesis, Department of Politics, The Richardson Institute, University of Lancaster, Lancaster. Wright, S. (1998), An Appraisal of the Technologies of Political Control: Interim STOA Report (PE 166.499), Luxembourg: European, available at: http://cryptome.org/stoa-atpc.htm (accessed 31 March 2005). About the author Steve Wright is a Visiting Professor in the School of Information, Associate Director of the Praxis Centre and an SSRC Global Security Research Fellow. Born in Newcastle, he began his academic career in Manchester studying Liberal Studies in Science. The course inspired him to look at the political consequences of innovation, which he followed through with postgraduate study at Lancaster University’s Richardson Institute, looking at “New Police Technologies and Sub-State Conflict Control”. Alas, the work progressed too well and resulted in the intelligence agency of a foreign power, America’s NSA, instructing British Police to raid Lancaster University (motto Omnibus Patet Veritas – ironcially “Truth Lies Open to All”). In 1985, he became Head of Manchester City Council’s Police Monitoring Unit, watching the local police force. He went on to become Director of the Omega Foundation in 1989, working with Amnesty International and the European Commission to track the transfer of military security and police technologies. He consequently developed a healthy appetite for travel and a sound expertise in sub-lethal weapons, writing for the Guardian and Le Monde Diplomatique. In 1998, Steve authored the European Parliament’s widely influential STOA report on the Echelon Global Spy System which revealed the extent to which all communications are read by Yorkshire’s Menwith Hill station, which taps two million calls an hour. The US “war against terror” and its human rights fallout has pre-occupied him ever since and he became Chair of the trustees of Privacy International in 2004. His current work covers information warfare, new border control technologies (he is a trustee of the Mines Advisory Group) and the emergence of weapons of mass paralysis.

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HIV/AIDS: a threat to the viability of the societies it attacks

HIV/AIDS

Marcela Villarreal Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy

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Abstract Purpose – To provide a new understanding of the AIDS epidemic and its implications in order to improve the responses from governments and the development community. Design/methodology/approach – The paper briefly describes the AIDS epidemic as it relates to development and to rural development in particular, and analyses these interactions from a systems perspective, inspired by the viable systems model approach. Findings – The paper concludes that HIV/AIDS poses a clear threat to the viability of the societies where the prevalence rates exceed a certain threshold (determined by agro-ecological and other contextual and organisational characteristics). It shows that in order to be effective, the AIDS epidemic needs a systemic response, involving all development sectors and that responses that involve only the health sector cannot address the systemic nature of the damage the epidemic creates, once the prevalence rates go beyond the said threshold. Practical implications – An understanding that the epidemic may render societies non viable may move decision makers more decisively to action and an understanding of the systemic nature of the response needed may prompt an adequate organisation of this action. Originality/value – The paper analyses the AIDS epidemic in an innovative way, contributing to the understanding of its dynamics and implications as well as to the means of addressing them. The paper is useful for policy makers, government officials and development planners to be aware of these and to take them into consideration in the design/implementation of policies, programmes and projects. It should also be of value to academics who wish to deepen their understanding of the epidemic. Keywords Cybernetics, Sociocybernetics, Acquired immune deficiency syndrome Paper type Conceptual paper

Introduction AIDS is subtracting decades of achievements in socio-economic development in Africa, undermining countries’ efforts to reduce poverty and enhance living standards. It is one of the root causes of the crisis that put almost 15 million persons at the risk of famine during the 2002-2003 droughts. It has brought down life expectancy to less than 35 years in the most affected countries. It has created massive losses in human capacity in all sectors as well as severe governance difficulties. Throughout African history, few crises have threatened the very viability of societies, as does the AIDS pandemic. Concerted and vigorous action is needed to address the social, economic and institutional consequences of the epidemic. This paper analyses the nature of the impacts of the epidemic and discusses how these can compromise the viability of the societies it attacks. It proposes to address the epidemic’s systemic impact by improving essential systemic functions and by creating appropriate synergies.

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 195-208 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640317

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Figure 1. Spread of HIV throughout Sub-Sahara Africa, 1986-2001

Dimensions of the epidemic Currently, it is estimated that some 39 million people globally are infected with the HIV virus. More than 25 million (about 64 per cent) of those live in Sub-Saharan Africa, making the region the worst affected area in the world (UNAIDS, 2004a). Since the disease strikes mainly people aged 15-49 years, that is the economically most productive members of society, HIV/AIDS is a problem of critical importance for economic and social development. Because populations of the worst affected countries are predominantly rural, the agricultural sector is particularly affected. Inter-country differences in levels of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are significant. Available estimates for the year 2003 indicate that adult prevalence rates range from less than 3 per cent in parts of Northern Africa (2.3 per cent in Sudan, less than 1 per cent in the other countries) and some island states in the Indian Ocean (1.7 per cent in Madagascar), to more than 24 per cent in Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Swaziland, and Botswana (Figure 1). Overall, countries in Eastern and Southern Africa have been hit hardest by the epidemic, and prevalence is soaring in parts of Western Africa (UNAIDS, 2004a). AIDS affects different population segments with different intensities. For instance, studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa have revealed that due to a combination of biological, socio-economic and cultural factors, women become infected at younger ages than men (Du Guerny and Sjo¨berg, 1993). Consequently, about three million more women than men carry HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. Children are suffering disproportionately the consequences of the epidemic, with an estimated 12 million children orphaned by AIDS. This number is expected to climb to more than 18 million in Sub-Saharan Africa (UNAIDS, 2004b).

Geographic differences within countries are also important. The AIDS epidemic spreads through channels such as truck routes, which greatly facilitate population movement, thus increasing the risks of AIDS infection in villages along such routes. AIDS-related problems in rural communities are further intensified through migration, as many HIV-infected urban dwellers tend to return to their rural homes when they fall ill. Because access to information and health services is much poorer in rural areas than in cities, rural people are less likely to know how to protect themselves against HIV, and if they fall ill they are also less likely to receive adequate care. Owing to such factors, AIDS is now becoming an even greater threat in rural areas than in cities. In spite of major efforts by governments and the civil society, the prevalence of the disease is still increasing throughout much of the African continent. In some countries, the rapidity of the epidemic represents a critical element of the disaster that makes efforts to cope with its effects very difficult. For example, in 1984 less than 1 per cent of Botswana’s adults were infected, whereas by 1999 the national prevalence rate had soared to 35 per cent. But even in regions where the impact of AIDS is thought to be lower, such as in West Africa, the epidemic is spreading fast; for instance, in Cameroon the HIV-prevalence rate rose about 20-fold during the last decade. North Africa is the only part of the continent where levels of AIDS continue to be relatively low.

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Impact The overall impact of the epidemic depends on the actual level of infection in the population. As shown in Figure 2, the spread of the HIV virus follows distinct phases. In phase I, which can take decades, prevalence rates remain low and increase slowly. Phase II starts when a turning point is reached, usually when around 5 per cent of the population becomes infected, when very rapid – sometimes-exponential – growth in the infection rate becomes evident. A new turning point, when the proportion of the population infected levels off, marks the start of phase III. Finally, the onset of the decrease of HIV prevalence rates leads to phase IV. The precise shape of the curve and the duration of each phase will vary from area to area and depends on a range of factors, including policy and other concrete action taken to prevent and mitigate the effects of the epidemic. Early and decisive action may keep rates low, without ever reaching phase II, as is the case of most developed countries. HIV/AIDS is a slow epidemic with slow impacts. Impacts start to be obvious at the population level only years after a sharp increase in prevalence rates (Villarreal, 2005).

Figure 2. Phases in the HIV prevalence curve

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Figure 3. Hypothetical HIV prevalence and death curves

This time lag varies in duration, but massive deaths can be expected 5-10 years after the onset of phase II, depending on the level of nutrition of the population and other factors. Death is one of the main impacts, but before death occurs, there are other impacts, for example, weakness and decreased ability to work for about two years (again, depending on nutritional, medical and other factors). Impoverishment is another effect, starting more or less at the time of decreased work ability. Impacts at the population level that succeed the death curve are, for example, the occurrence of double orphans, as the death of both parents lags behind the death of one parent by a certain number of years. A hypothetical death impact curve is shown in Figure 3. The time lag between the prevalence and impact curves means that a population in which prevalence rates are very high may still not have any observable impact at the population level. Likewise, low prevalence rates may coexist with very high levels of impact during phase IV. Policies, programmes and other initiatives to prevent and mitigate HIV/AIDS need to take the stage of the epidemic into account in the specific area to which they are directed (Topouzis, 2001). For example, if a country or parts of a country are in phase II, the government could model the likely evolution of a sickness and disability curve to programme the distribution of drugs and the deployment of medical personnel. If a country is approaching phase IV, resources should be shifted from mitigation efforts to reconstruction. The impact of the disease is systemic: once a certain threshold prevalence rate has been exceeded, HIV/AIDS does not merely affect certain social or economic sectors, leaving others unaffected. If one component of the society is affected, it is likely that others will also be affected, either directly or indirectly. The impact is observable at all levels of social organization (individuals, households, communities, nations) and throughout different time scales (short, medium and long-term). Unlike other diseases, whose impact remains localized in individuals or households, the systemic shock created by HIV/AIDS is related to the pervasiveness of its impact on whole communities and societies (White and Robinson, 2000). Likewise, in order to be effective, government or other response cannot involve only one sector. In spite of a growing acceptance of the fact that HIV/AIDS is a development problem, i.e. affecting all sectors and requiring a multi-sectoral response, most of the world action to date is overly medicalised, involving mostly the health sector and delivered through the health sector.

The main impacts of the epidemic stem from the widespread loss of prime age adults, which results in loss of income, knowledge, skills and productive capacity in the household, and consequently in a loss of capacity for service provision, institutional performance, communication, productivity and capacity for good governance at community and national levels. In turn, this results in loss of economic growth, and decreased ability from the government to support affected groups with proper policies and implementation mechanisms. This raises the question of effectiveness of policy design and structures for implementation: do affected countries react only by alleviating some of the impacts, or are they preventing the problem from happening? Clearly, prevention requires more integral policies spanning across sectors and creating effective synergies between them. This should be considered a critical success factor for program design as well as for the design of governmental structures to prevent the epidemic. It is not yet clear at what point of the evolution of the epidemic the systemic functions are threatened, or are compromised beyond recovery. The threshold turning point will depend on the resilience of the system, and this depends on issues such as its governance capacity and external factors such as agro-ecological conditions, which render it more vulnerable. For example, a society in a drought-prone area may be threatened beyond recovery with a lower HIV prevalence rate than one in a tropical area, where less labour is needed for survival activities. The 5 per cent prevalence rate level may be a turning point for exponential growth to start (Bonnel, 2000), but the threshold level for viability is an issue requiring further research. The following paragraphs illustrate some of the sectoral impacts of the epidemic. Human resources and institutions Because of HIV/AIDS, ministries and departments are losing large numbers of their staff, leading to delays and disruptions in policy and plan implementation. In Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture, an estimated 58 per cent of all staff deaths are caused by AIDS, while some 16 per cent of staff in Malawi’s Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation were living with the disease (Topouzis and du Guerny, 1999). Without the necessary institutional support services, many agricultural and rural development institutions can no longer achieve their planned programme outputs and production targets. While the agricultural sector has been particularly hit due to the mobility of its staff, other sectors are no less affected. In the first ten months of 1998, Zambia lost 1,300 teachers due to AIDS – the equivalent of two-thirds of all new teachers trained annually (UNAIDS, 2002). Training of primary school teachers had to be reduced from two to one year to be able to cope with the loss of teachers. Furthermore, AIDS has caused a reduction in investment in training, education, staff development, and high levels of staff turnover (Topouzis, 1998). Death of staff also results in a longer-term loss of institutional memory. The loss of human resources and institutional capacity due to the epidemic increasingly obliges governments to compromise on the quality as well as on the amount of the services they provide. This is at a time when governments would need to increase and refine their service provision capacity precisely to be able to deal with the consequences of the epidemic. The social cost of the epidemic is staggering. Providing drugs for HIV infected individuals has exorbitant costs; these expenditures are beyond the reach of many

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governments and most individuals. The increased burden on governments diverts funds from productive investments. The cost of treatment of AIDS and related infections is expected to exceed 30 per cent of the Ministry of Health budget in Ethiopia by 2014, and 50 per cent and 60 per cent in Kenya and Zimbabwe, respectively, by 2005 (UNAIDS and ECA, 2000). To this must be added the cost of assisting orphans and destitute households. The pandemic creates significant shortages of labour supply among working age people, decreased productivity, increased production costs and promotes new migratory movements. Morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS significantly raise the rural households’ expenditures such as medical and funeral costs. In addition, it affects rural life through the loss of valuable skills and experience. Those afflicted with AIDS become unable to carry out their usual farm work. Healthy family members must care for the sick, dedicating less time to attending crops. Important farm tasks are left undone, and fields become unproductive (Topouzis, 1994). Children, especially girls, are frequently forced to discontinue schooling to help the family to cope and to take care of the sick, which also isolates this vulnerable group from useful information and jeopardizes their future. Farm families earn less and less income at a time they need it most. Once savings are gone, the household seeks support from relatives, borrows money or sells its productive assets. Declining incomes can force members of farm households to look for work in cities, and this rural-urban migration further perpetuates the spread of the virus. With the loss of the adults, the dependency ratio of the household is altered, with less working persons per dependent person. A significant proportion of households in the most affected areas have been reduced to impoverished elderly people and children. Especially, the latter may have limited decision-making power and access to resources, as well as less knowledge and experience; and both age groups often lack the physical strength to maintain a household. Traditionally relatives looked after orphans. However, in many places this capacity has been saturated and orphan-headed households are appearing for the first time in African history. In some areas, the percentage of orphans ranges from 7 to 11 per cent. Not surprisingly, severe food insecurity among orphans is already reported in the worst affected areas (UNAIDS and ECA, 2000). In addition, with the death of parents, children are severed from the traditional channel to acquire agricultural skills and knowledge. A study in Kenya showed that only 7 per cent of agricultural households headed by orphans had adequate knowledge for the most basic agricultural tasks. Furthermore, owing to the gender division of labour and knowledge, a surviving parent is not always able to transfer the skills of the deceased one. Breakdown in informal institutions and culture Informal institutions, customary practices and tradition are affected by HIV/AIDS. When a high proportion of households are affected, the traditional safety mechanisms to care for orphans, the elderly, the infirm and the destitute are overwhelmed. Affected people’s time to devote to community organisations is severely curtailed. They are further marginalised because they cannot participate in traditional safety nets in which labour or food is provided in times of need under the assumption that they will be repaid in the future. Informal rural institutions, which are the basis of survival for many in times of crisis, are being severely affected, in particular the extended family and kinship systems. This has implications not only for the spread of HIV but for

the viability of rural institutions. The widespread loss of active adults affects the entire society’s ability to maintain and reproduce itself. Mechanisms for transferring knowledge, values and beliefs from one generation to the next are disrupted, and social organization is undermined. AIDS can tear the very fabric of a society and in fact, in many parts of rural Africa, it has generated an irreversible collapse of the social asset base (Barnett and Blaikie, 1992; White and Robinson, 2000).

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201 Governance capacity Countries with good governance tend to have low and stable HIV prevalence rates (Hsu, 2000; Hickey, 2002). AIDS affects people’s capacity to participate in political activities and decision-making processes, as it stigmatises and marginalises those infected and their families, while at the same time providing less of the services they need. The epidemic severs information and communication flows, not only to and between citizens, but also from the citizens to the authorities. Affected individuals may be too sick to vote (Hsu, 2000) or to participate in community decision-making processes. Rural institutions are thus strongly affected. AIDS also severs inter-generational information and communication flows from parents to children. The epidemic therefore impedes the functioning of essential aspects of good governance such as mechanisms to ensure transparency, accountability and the rule of law. By killing service providers and skilled staff in government institutions, the disease decimates the capacity needed to implement the responses against the disease, at a time when an increased government capacity is needed precisely because of the disease. The devastating impact of the epidemic on the population and its economic capacity has shown that the governments’ ability to react to it has been neither timely nor appropriate. An issue requiring further research is the governments’ capacity to re-design their own organisation, structures and information channels in order to prevent the massive effects of the epidemic and to improve the quality of private and public life of those affected. Food security HIV/AIDS diminishes the household’s ability to produce food because it takes its death toll mostly among productive adults. In fact, the impact on the agricultural labour force, which makes up most of the labour force of the affected countries, has been enormous. FAO has estimated that in the 25 most affected countries in Africa, 7 million agricultural workers have died from AIDS since 1985, and 16 million more deaths are likely in the next two decades. In the ten most affected African countries, labour force decreases ranging from 10 to 26 per cent are anticipated. AIDS affects food production, through sickness and death, in a number of ways: reduction of the area of land under cultivation; declining yields; decline in crop variety; decline in livestock production; decline in post-production operations; loss of agricultural skills; breakdown of support services; loss of agricultural knowledge and agrobiodiversity (Barnett, 1994; FAO, 1995, 1997; du Guerny et al., 2000; Garı´ and Villarreal, 2003; Topouzis and du Guerny, 1999; Rugalema et al., 1999; Gillespie, 1988). HIV/AIDS also affects food security by impoverishing affected families and hence reducing their ability to produce and buy food. A study in Ethiopia revealed that the cost of caring for an AIDS patient, and meeting the subsequent funeral expenses,

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exceeded the average annual farm income (Demeke, 1993). As a result, poor rural households sell their productive assets, including their livestock, to care for the sick or pay the funeral expenses, and with those assets go their only savings, compromising their future livelihoods. One study in Uganda showed that 65 per cent of the AIDS-affected households were obliged to sell property to pay for care (Intl Conf AIDS, 1996). Traditional safety nets, which contribute to food security in times of need, are breaking down in the worst affected communities, where families and neighbours become too overburdened to help each other with food, loans, a hand in the fields, or care of orphans. Poverty, widespread in rural areas, leads to poor nutrition and poor health, which make people more vulnerable to HIV infection. Poor nutrition can also shorten the incubation period of the virus, causing symptoms to appear sooner. This situation is especially severe for the rural poor, who have the least access to medical care. Armed conflict, typically fought in rural areas, also increases vulnerability to HIV/AIDS because of sexual violence, displacement of people and destitution. The impact of HIV/AIDS on agricultural production and food availability will be felt in terms of quantity and quality of food. In Zimbabwe, communal agricultural output has decreased 50 per cent in a five-year period, largely due to HIV/AIDS. The production of maize, cotton, sunflowers and groundnuts has been particularly affected (FES, 1998). The decrease in the agricultural labour force, worker productivity, total outputs, and overall economic growth could lead to a decline in national food supplies and a rise in food prices, including those in urban areas. The breakdown of commercial enterprises may undermine the country’s capacity to export and generate foreign exchange to import food when needed. Many of the worst affected countries are low-income food-deficit countries, and many are also highly indebted poor countries. HIV/AIDS is exacerbating their difficulties in providing food for their peoples. Poverty AIDS affects people of all income and education levels. However, the poor are more vulnerable to its consequences. They are less likely to recover from the shock that the loss of a productive adult and the loss of the resources to take care of him or her cause to the household. Poverty creates a risk environment that contributes to the transmission of HIV, for it is linked to low levels of human capital, limited productive assets and gender inequality in access to resources. The epidemic in turn exacerbates rural poverty. This vicious circle is of particular concern in the rural areas, where most of Africa’s poor live. Whole communities thus become food insecure and impoverished. The epidemic is having a significant effect on formal institutions and their ability to carry out policies and programmes to assist rural households. The disruption in government and other services further aggravates the difficulties in reducing poverty in AIDS-affected populations. Gender Gender inequality is one of the driving forces behind the spread of HIV. Worldwide, access to productive resources including land, credit, knowledge, training and technology, is strongly determined along gender lines, with men frequently having more access to all of these than women. AIDS is worsening existing gender imbalances.

In many patrilineal rural African societies, women have access to productive resources only through marriage. When the husband died, widows traditionally married a surviving brother and thus “bought” their continued access to the clan’s resources. With the advent of the AIDS epidemic, women are losing this traditional safety net. AIDS widows have no legal rights to land and property after their husband’s death, due to customary or even formal inheritance laws. The lack of access to or ownership of productive resources may force them to send some of their children away (who also might be infected with HIV), engage in occasional sex for money, or earn a living as commercial sex workers, contributing to the further spread of the epidemic. Acute gender inequalities are a major factor in the transmission of the epidemic, and are also exacerbated by them. These social and cultural factors, combined with biological factors make women more vulnerable to HIV, especially in youth and adolescence. In many places HIV infection rates are three to five times higher among young women than young men (UNAIDS, 2004a, b). Effective interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic must therefore target both men and women, based on a gender perspective that seeks to understand the complex set of socially ascribed roles and relations between them. Economic growth At national level, according to World Bank estimates, HIV/AIDS has reduced the annual rate of Africa’s per caput GDP growth by 0.7 per cent (Bonnel, 2000). The epidemic undermines three of the main determinants of economic growth: physical, human and social capital, and thus has a major impact on development. For instance, UNDP estimates for South Africa suggest that the human development index could be 15 per cent lower in 2010 due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The viability of aids-affected societies In order for a system to be viable, it must be able to perform the essential systemic functions of implementation, co-ordination, control, intelligence (i.e. two-way link between the primary activity and its external environment) and policy (Beer, 1985; Espejo and Gill, 2005). When the AIDS epidemic becomes generalised, it affects the adequate performance of all of these, rendering the systems it attacks not viable. For the purpose of this analysis, the system is loosely defined as a society. The extreme loss of human resources and knowledge, which is replicated at the household, community and national levels impedes societies with a generalised AIDS epidemic to generate the products and services that it needs to survive and to reproduce itself, thereby impairing the system’s implementation function. In particular, the reduced capacity to provide essential services such as education and to produce vital products such as food impede the implementation of the overall purpose of the system, i.e. to survive (at a minimum) and to progress. As explained above, when AIDS becomes generalised, it limits the society’s ability for good governance, by reducing participation, voting, law enforcement and by increasing inequality at all levels. AIDS increases inequality between men and women, affected and non-affected households, affected and non-affected communities and affected and non-affected countries. AIDS-affected households tend to become increasingly marginalised as they are cut off social safety nets. Essential communication channels

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between different levels of the system are severed, limiting the possibility of the functions of control and co-ordination to operate. Regarding the intelligence function, AIDS reduces the capacity to adapt to external environmental changes. For example, the combination of drought and HIV/AIDS created an acute food crisis that put around 15 million persons at the risk of famine in the southern African region in 2002-2003. Without massive food aid, entire societies would have perished (Report of the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy, 2004). The AIDS epidemic affects societies’ capacity for adaptive exchange with the environment. Finally, AIDS also obstructs a good implementation of the policy function, not only through marginalisation and severing of communication flows, but also by reducing people’s trust in the government’s ability to protect and provide services. In relation to marginalisation, a FAO (2004) study showed that in Zambia, AIDS-affected households could not benefit from a policy to increase smallholder agricultural production through the distribution of subsidised agricultural inputs through cooperatives. These households, and in particular, those headed by women could not participate in the cooperatives, as they were too impoverished to pay cooperatives membership fees. Another FAO (2003b) study revealed that AIDS-affected households were not able to benefit from a Uganda national policy to increase export cash crops. While non-affected households effectively shifted production from food (non-export crops) to cash export crops, those affected were neither able to shift nor to keep up production levels in the subsistence crops. Several authors have explored the relationship between government legitimacy and HIV/AIDS (Nelufule, 2004): HIV/AIDS policies are implemented more effectively when a broad consultative process is undertaken; prevention efforts are more effective when the government has credibility; legitimate governments are more likely to enjoy public trust; a fair legal system with respect for human rights and a fair electoral system with the equal participation of both genders are essential to reduce stigma, increase openness, aiding prevention and the implementation of policies. However, as was noted above, all of these tend to be challenged by the spread of the epidemic itself. Building effective responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic The systemic impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, as outlined above call for a systemic response. To date, in spite of repeated calls for a multi-sectoral response and in spite of repeated affirmations that AIDS is a development problem that goes beyond health, most of the response has come from and through the health sector. Worldwide instruments such as the global fund for AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, channelling the bulk of international assistance, continue to overwhelmingly fund the health sector and health activities. In combating the effects of the AIDS epidemic, the effectiveness of the response of one sector depends on the effectiveness of the response in the others. For example, even if rural inhabitants were able to have full access to the combination of medicines needed for treatment, without adequate food and nutrition, they would not be able to take these medicines. In the rural areas, the most pressing need felt by the people affected by AIDS is food (UNAIDS, FAO, 2003a). Health sector responses that target drug distribution only cannot be effective without adequate food availability, good nutrition and access to food, i.e. without the involvement of the agricultural sector. This is a clear example that a systemic response, with co-ordination and creation of

synergies between all the sectors is paramount to address the AIDS epidemic. A better understanding of the systemic interactions and their relations to the epidemic and the will allow for improved coordination and communication, as well as the design and implementation of more appropriate integrated policies. In the wake of the loss of human resources, knowledge and capacity at all levels created by the epidemic, it has been suggested to “replenish” capacity and in fact several ongoing programmes use UN volunteers and others to take up functions normally carried out by governments. However, this solution is not sustainable due to the costs involved given the vast amount of skilled and non-skilled persons lost. For example, in Malawi, the Minister of Land and Water declared that he had lost 100 senior posts and an additional 800 cadres due to the epidemic. It becomes necessary to systematically rethink and refocus government services and products, in order to: . to be effective in the context of AIDS; and . be able to address the effects of the epidemic. Instead of trying to replenish lost extension workers, extension services should be revamped, in order to benefit the new receivers of services (widows, orphans, elderly) and to provide relevant content for the new situation (e.g. crop varieties that require less labour, other time and labour saving technologies, etc.). Both services and products need to be adapted for the system to be able to implement its purpose. In order to improve communication flows, it is essential to address the causes of marginalisation associated with the epidemic, including stigma. Policies need to ensure that they take into account the specific needs of the AIDS-affected households and communities so that they can fully participate in the intended benefits. Policies, and in particular agricultural policies, given that up to 80 per cent of the population of the most affected countries depends on agriculture for its survival, need to assure inclusiveness, and co-ordination with other sectors, in particular the health sector. Experience has shown that dynamic leadership, political commitment and integrated multi-sectoral action at all levels are necessary for effective measures to halt the HIV/AIDS epidemic and mitigate its effects. Effective policies demand a sharp insight of the dynamics of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in rural areas, including the vulnerability and risk environments created by socio-cultural, economic and environmental factors. Types of policies and the urgency of the measures will depend on the phase of evolution of the epidemic. Although agricultural policies are not usually designed with HIV/AIDS in mind, they can indirectly affect the spread of the epidemic and lessen its effects on farm households and farming systems. By explicitly taking the HIV/AIDS factor into account, agricultural policies can attempt not only to achieve their usual objectives (increase in yield, commercial crop outputs, etc.) but also to reduce vulnerability to HIV by modifying the socio-economic, demographic and cultural factors that are related to risk behaviour (poverty, loss of employment, food insecurity, migration, etc.). Although policies to reduce vulnerability cannot replace policies to reduce risk, they can create positive synergies. Specifically, the agriculture sector can help to influence the environment and the vulnerability context in which the pandemic takes place, thereby also modifying some of the factors that shape its course and impact (Jayne et al., 2005). AIDS threatens the viability of the societies it attacks. However, it is not impossible to control its spread, and in fact there have been a few success stories. For example, in

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Uganda, the infection peaked during the early 1990s with an estimated 15 per cent of the population affected. Ten years later, the level of infection has been halved following the implementation of extensive measures with the participation of all sectors at all levels, emphasising the mobilisation of communities and people living with AIDS, innovative communication techniques, reduction in discriminatory practices and multi-sectoral policies. Another success case is Thailand. However, both countries were able to control the spread of the epidemic when prevalence rates were significantly lower than some of today’s cases. An essential element of success is not to wait until the epidemic becomes generalised. The AIDS epidemic is not a death sentence if it is addressed adequately, but most of the affected countries have not yet attempted a systemic and resolute solution. A systemic response will help governments to take a preventive rather than a reactive approach to the epidemic. Adaptation of current policy making structures, to make sure that a multi-sector and integral response underlies the design of policies and innovative democratic structures to improve communication with the affected or vulnerable population are at the least the options urgently required. There are systemic approaches that have proven to be useful for re-designing institutions with the goal of empowering communities and strengthening their links with government, as the Viable Systems Model (Beer, 1985). More research on how applies to the pandemic seems to be highly desirable in order to understand its dynamics and impact and to organise an adequate structural response. References Barnett, T. (1994), “The effects of HIV/AIDS on farming systems and rural livelihood in Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia: a summary analysis of case studies from research carried out in the period July-September 1993”, Project TSS/1 RAF/92/TO/A, Overseas Development Group University of East Anglia, Norwich. Barnett, T. and Blaikie, P. (1992), AIDS in Africa: Its Present and Future Impacts, The Guilford Press, New York, NY. Beer, S. (1985), Diagnosing the System for Organizations, Wiley, Chichester. Bonnel, R. (2000), “What makes an economy HIV-resistant?”, draft report presented during the International AIDS Economic Network Symposium, Durban, 7-8 July. Demeke, M. (1993), “The potential impact of HIV/AIDS on the rural sector of Ethiopia”, unpublished. Du Guerny, J. and Sjo¨berg, E. (1993), “Inter-relationship between gender relations and the HIV/AIDS epidemic: some possible considerations for policies and programmes”, AIDS, Vol. 7, pp. 1027-34. du Guerny, J., Stloukal, L. and Engh, I. (2000), HIV/AIDS in Namibia: The Impact on the Livestock Sector, Population Programme Service (SDWP) FAO Gender and Population Division, Rome. Espejo, R. and Gill, A. (2005), “The viable system model as a framework for understanding organisations”, Phrontis Limited, available at: www.phrontis.com (accessed March 2005). FAO (1995), The Effects of HIV/AIDS on Farming Systems in Eastern Africa, FAO Farm Management and Production Economics Service, Rome. FAO (1997), Impact du VIH/SIDA sur les syste`mes d’exploitations agricoles en Afrique de l’ouest, FAO, Service de la gestion des exploitations et de l’e´conomie de production, Rome.

FAO (2003a), Mitigating the Impact of HIV/AIDS on Food Security and Rural Poverty: Results of a Multistakeholder Meeting and Outcomes of Subsequent Strategy Development, FAO, Rome, available at: www.fao.org/sd/2003/PE07043_en.htm (accessed March 2005). FAO (2003b), “HIV/AIDS and agriculture: impacts and responses. Case studies from Namibia, Uganda and Zambia”, available at: www.fao.org/sd/2003/PE12013_en.htm (accessed March 2005). FAO (2004), HIV/AIDS, Gender Inequality and Rural Livelihoods. The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Rural Livelihoods in Northern Province, Zambia, FAO, Rome, available at: www.fao.org/ sd/dim_pe1/pe1_040602_en.htm (accessed March 2005). FES (1998), “Land tenure and housing for farm workers in Zimbabwe”, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Seminar Proceedings Series, November, No. 21. Garı´, J. and Villarreal, M. (2003), “Agrobiodiversity and indigenous knowledge in mitigation of the consequences of HIV/AIDS”, paper presented to HIV/AIDS Mitigation Workshop, May, Pretoria, Rome, FAO HIV/AIDS Programme. Gillespie (1988), Potential Impacts of AIDS on Farming Systems: A Case Study from Rwanda, FAO, Rome. Hickey, A. (2002), “Governance and HIV/AIDS: issues of public policy and administration”, HIV/AIDS, Economics and Governance in South Africa: Key Issues in Understanding Response: A Literature Review, Centre for Aids Development, Research and Evaluation, Johannesburg. Hsu, L. (2000), Governance and HIV/AIDS, United Nations Development Programme, South-East Asia HIV/AIDS and Development Project. Intl Conf AIDS (1996), “Impact of aids on families in Rakai district” (cited in AIDS and Africa – country by country). Jayne, T., Villarreal, M., Pingali, P. and Hemrich, G. (2005), “Interactions between the agricultural sector and the HIV/AIDS pandemic: implications for agriculture policy”, ESA working papers, FAO and Michigan State University, available at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/ ae061e/ae061e00.pdf (accessed March 2005). Morris, J.T. (2004) Special Envoy of the Secretary General for Humanitarian Needs in Southern Africa, Mission Report, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia and Swaziland, June 14-21. Nelufule, M.D. (2004), “AIDS and democracy: what do we know?”, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division, prepared for the Democracy, Governance and HIV/AIDS in Africa Roundtable, Pretoria, July. Rugalema, G., Weigang, S. and Mbwika, J. (1999), HIV/AIDS and the Commercial Agricultural Sector of Kenya. Impact, Vulnerability, Susceptibility and Coping Strategies, UNDP and FAO, Rome. Topouzis, D. (1994), “The socio-economic impact of HIV/AIDS on rural families with an emphasis on rural youth”, FAO, Rome, TCP/UGA/2556. Topouzis, D. (1998), The Implications of HIV/AIDS for Rural Development Policy and Programming: Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, FAO (Sustainable Development Department) and UNDP (HIV and Development Programme), Rome. Topouzis, D. (2001) Strategy paper on HIV/AIDS for East and Southern Africa, International Fund for Agricultural Development. Topouzis, D. and du Guerny, J. (1999), Sustainable Agricultural/Rural Development and Vulnerability to the AIDS Epidemic, FAO and UNAIDS Joint Publication, Rome, UNAIDS Best Practice Collection.

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UNAIDS (2002), available at: www.unaids.org; www.unaids.org/publications/graphics/20yearfs/ Frn/HIVAfrique.fr710.jpg; www.unaids.org/fact%5Fsheets/ungass/pdf/FSorphans_en. pdf); www.unaids.org/fact%5Fsheets/files/dev%5Feng.doc; UNAIDS FACT SHEET: www.unaids.org/hivaidsinfo/statistics/fact_sheets/pdfs/Botswana_en.pdf (accessed March 2005). UNAIDS (2004a), “AIDS epidemic update December 2004”, available at: www.unaids.org (accessed April 2005). UNAIDS (2004b) Report on the global AIDS epidemic, available at: www.unaids.org (accessed April 2005). UNAIDS and The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) (2000), “AIDS in Africa – country by country”, paper presented at Africa Development Forum 2000 AIDS: The Greatest Leadership Challenge. Villarreal, M. (2005), “AIDS e sicurezza alimentare: Modelli matematici”, in Emmer, M. (Ed.), Matematica e Cultura 2005, Springer-Verlag/Italia, New York, NY/Milan. White, J. and Robinson, E. (2000), HIV/AIDS and Rural Livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, London. Further reading Barnett, T. and Whiteside, A. (2002), AIDS in the Twenty-First Century: Disease and Globalization, Palgrave Macmillan, New York, NY. Du Guerny, J. (1999), AIDS and Agriculture in Africa: Can Agricultural Policy Make a Difference?, SDWP, FAO, Rome. Kwaramba, P. (1998), “The social and economic impact of HIV/AIDS on communal agricultural systems in Zimbabwe”, Working Paper #19, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung and Zimbabwe Farmers Union, Harare. Rugalema, G. (1999), “AIDS and African rural livelihoods – from knowledge to action”, Keynote address, paper presented at Conference on AIDS, Livelihood and Social Change in Africa, Wageningen University. About the author Marcela Villarreal is the Director of the Gender and Population Division and the Co-ordinator of the HIV/AIDS programme of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. She previously worked for several UN organisations including the ILO and the UNFPA as well as for the Colombian Government and the Cultura Tayrona Foundation. She is the author and co-author of numerous scientific papers, chapters in books and edited volumes on the issues of HIV/AIDS, gender, poverty, rural development and population and development. She has a PhD in rural sociology from Cornell University and an MA/BA in systems and computing engineering from Los Andes University, Bogota´. Marcela Villarreal can be contacted at: marcela. [email protected]

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Contemporary systems and cybernetics Innovative applications

Contemporary systems and cybernetics 209

Brian H. Rudall Norbert Wiener Institute and the University of Wales, UK Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce innovative systems that are currently being developed worldwide. They include reviews of Artificial life machines; Poker-playing “bots”; Advanced systems to harness a human’s electrical field; “smart beer mat”; computer vision surveillance system; robotic systems for gastric surgery; future combat systems. Design/methodology/approach – General review and survey of selected research and development topics. Findings – Illustrates the multi-and trans-disciplinary nature of cybernetics and systems. Aims to further research and development activity. Practical implications – The choice of reviews provides an awareness of the current trends in these areas of endeavour but are necessarily selective. Orginality/va1ue – The reviews are selected from a global database and give a studied assessment of current research and development initiatives. Keywords Automation, Computers, Cybernetics, Research Paper type Technical Paper

1. Introduction Advances in technology are not always matched by similar progress in the research and development of systems and cybernetics. Many applications of new technologies never reach the marketing stage, even after extensive publicity in the media. We review here some initiatives that appear to be promising contributions to a wide variety of endeavours. The range of applications is truly astonishing. We have also reviewed some of those that have recently been publicised. They include a short account of some new developments in building self-replicating machines, a concept of John von Neumann which leads to discussions about whether we could create artificial life. We also highlight the recent interest in producing poker-playing systems which has become a real challenge to the developers of software, and those involved with artificial intelligence. There has been much speculation about how the electrical field of the human body could be utilised in processing. We are told it makes the best computer. Other innovative systems applications are described because they have recently fascinated the public in so many different ways. The computer vision system is already saving lives and looks set to be installed worldwide. Finally, we discuss the new robots that can perform gastric surgery and those that might yet appear in the new combat systems currently being planned.

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 209-216 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X DOI 10.1108/03684920610640326

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2. Self-replicating machines When John von Neumann gave his lecture on “General and Logical Theory of Automata” in 1948 his ideas were met with some scepticism. The suggestion that life is a logical process which could result in making a new kind of creature, was the forerunner of all our discussions on whether “artificial life” was at all possible. An article in Nature (May 2005) now appears to have made such a vision more likely to be realised. This issue tells us that scientists have built a self-reproducing creature, a twisting tower of cubes that can “breed” just like the birds and bees, with, at this stage, a lot of human assistance. There is no doubt that we should now ask the question: does this mean we can produce robots that can breed robots? von Neumann aimed at designing a machine that was complex enough to copy itself. To do this he devised a “self-reproducing automaton” which in the words of one science writer[1] was: . . . a reproductive robot afloat in a sea of its own components; in so doing he united the apparently divergent worlds of nerve tissue and electronics with mathematical logic.

Currently, a research team led by Hod Lipson[2] has used smart bricks to build a real-world version of von Neumann’s machine. Lipson says that: Although the machines we have created are still simple compared with biological self-reproduction, they demonstrate that mechanical self-reproduction is possible, and not unique to biology.

This is not the first venture of Lipson who has in earlier research built an automaton that can design itself and even kill itself. The new self-replicating machine was built with the help of three of his students and certainly does not resemble the conventional robot. In fact, it has been described as looking like a pile of misshapen ice cubes, each about 4 in. across. We are told that: Each “molecube” contains identical machinery and the computer program for replication. Electromagnets on each face allow it selectively to attach or detach from another. It is also split along a long diagonal so each half can swivel relative to the other. A complete robot consists of several cubes linked together and goes forth and multiplies on a laboratory table; living off electricity in the base plate and transferring data and power through its faces.

The cubes have been divided in two so that a multi-cube robot can bend, reconfigure itself and manipulate other cubes. Since one robot is unable to reach across another of the same height it can help finish its own construction. Thus a four-module robot can make a replica in 2.5 minutes by consuming cubes from easily reachable “feeding” locations. Success in replication is by no means assured, but this real-world version of von Neumann’s machine shows that progress can be made towards “artificial life”. Other scientists are actively engaged in this field. In the UK, for example, Adrian Bowyer of Bath University is planning to build self-replicating robots in his RepRap project. 3. Poker-playing “bots” 3.1 Poker-playing robots become a reality A review from the US describes how a computer will challenge the human world poker players to determine whether a machine can outbluff man. We are told that there is a

search for a machine that is capable of beating the world’s top poker players. Such poker-playing robots are called “poker bots” and the aim is to have them enter-events and run, in tandem with their more established human equivalents. In these competitions the winners of each contest can then compete with each other to decide whether a machine can really out bluff man. This will then provide an opportunity for software engineers such as those who designed the chess programs for IBM’s computer Deep Blue, to show their skills. Darren Shuster, an entrepreneur and publicist from California, highlights the problems and the challenge to software designers, he writes that: Chess is a game of pure strategy. To play it well involves the absence of emotion. Poker is the opposite. It involves skill and strategy but it is also a game of chance.

Developing poker-playing robots is not without its social and business consequences. Automation has always affected the traditional pattern of human activity. In this case the emergence of bots has caused alarm among online casinos which have experienced a rapid growth in gambling over the internet. In other words, we see one innovative use of technology competing against another. Online casinos are concerned it would appear that some clients are using robots against unsuspecting opponents and winning huge prizes. As a result because of the enormous financial implications members of the poker robot community are said to be going in fear that the source codes behind their secretive programs will be exposed and used, particularly by online casino operatives, to build better defences against them. Meanwhile, the search continues for the computer system that can emulate the computer chess programs that are capable of beating the top players in the world. Whilst the media calls these systems robotic to give the impression that a robot actually sits in a chair dealing out cards; in practice the game is played with a computer system and the interface is more likely to be the latest interactive device available. Currently, this would be a screen or a handheld device with a display. Already, we are told, more secretive concealed devices are used so that human players can base their game on information and strategies worked out by a remote computer system. Success, as usual will depend on the skill of the programmers and the algorithms they have developed. This has been summed up by one writer who says that: The problem facing programmers is to create a computer that is capable of cheating and lying, a technique that has so far eluded artificial intelligence experts.

4. Advanced systems to harness a human’s electrical field 4.1 The human body becomes a data conduit Many researchers have over the past decade considered the human body to be the best conductor of electronic data. Many experimental systems have been designed to use the body’s conducting properties for receiving, transmitting and indeed processing information. One such device, for example, used the human body to receive wireless signals for communication purposes. Mobile phone designers have produced systems that use the human frame to replace receivers. Researchers also suggest that the human body is the perfect conductor for information such as music, films, etc. all of which could be downloaded in seconds.

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4.2 Red Tacton systems, developed in Japan A report from the NTT Laboratories in Japan describes the Red Tacton system. The developers of this invention envisage a future in which the human body acts as a non-stop conduit for information. The information could be in any electronic form and applied to almost any application. They say, for example, that wireless networks and devices, that are often hampered by intermittent service will eventually be replaced by “human area networks”. The NTT researchers describe Red Tacton as having: . the human body as a path for the electrical signals which let computerised equipment communicate; . a transmitter on the body for the body’s electrical field to transmit digital messages; . a receiver that can be attached to many types of devices: laptop computers, PDAs, mobile phones, mpeg players; and . optical crystal and laser technology to convert the changes in the electric field back into a signal. 4.3 Red Tacton systems could change our habits Some of the ways in which the Red Tacton and indeed similarly developing systems, could change the way in which we live are: . Shaking hands. This simple act could allow two people (or more) to exchange information, e.g. business cards, etc. . Touch. Touching any object such as a door handle could allow for the interchange of information. Tacton security systems can recognise a user and allow access if permitted. . Mobile phones. Touching a mobile phone would instantly transfer information such as address books, call history billing, etc. . Digital images. Such as those obtain by computers, digital cameras could be transferred, e.g. holding a digital camera and touching a printer could print or store a picture. 4.4 Systems function The Red Tacton has chips embedded in machines and they contain transmitters and receivers built to send and accept any form of data stored in a digital format. The chip then takes any data file, e.g. e-mail, MP3 music, etc. and converts it into digital pulses that can be passed and read through a human being’s electrical field. The chip in the receiving device reads these small changes and converts them back into its original form. It is claimed that since the Red Tacton sensors are miniaturised and built into every type of device and product its functions allow it to be used in an almost endless number of potential applications. 4.5 Future applications and marketing The product has already been publicised in the UK press[3] and the world’s media developers at NTT have given an example of its use in advertising applications. An advertisement poster could contain Red Tacton sensors so that simply by touching

the product, information and an order form could be sent to you via your laptop or any other electronic processor. Similar uses would allow business people a simple way of exchanging business and product information by just shaking hands or touching information documents or files. NTT scientists say that:

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4.6 Technical advance NTT are not the only research group to experiment with the use of the human body’s electrical field. Other researchers such as IBM have also been involved in similar projects. So far, there have been no reports of their or other companies progress. The approach taken by IBM and others over the past five years of research has been directed at harnessing the power of the minute and unstable flow of current across the skin. NTT has taken a different one which attempts to use the body’s natural electricity itself. A scientist from NTT says that they have attempted to exploit the tiny variations in the overall field and the way in which they affect highly sensitive lasers. These are changes that are collected by the electro-optic crystal that, it is said, is the key to their whole approach. It is these minute fluctuations that can be converted and then transmitted and read as digital messages so that no current passes along the body. Data they claim can in consequence be transferred virtually instantaneously. This is a technical advance that will be exploited by any research group involved in data transfers. Potential applications in robotics and automation already prove attractive and indeed this new technology promises to be most fruitful. Field tests are already under way and we are told that the first commercial appearance of Red Tacton is expected to be in 2006. 5. Smart beer mat 5.1 German university students project Automation is now reaching the parts that have so far escaped its attention. The thought that customers for beer in Germany should wait for a refill was hardly bearable. This has spurred students at Saarland University, under the supervision of Professor Andreas Butz, who teaches human computer interaction, to devise the interactive beer mat. This “smart mat” uses weight and motion sensors to detect whether a glass is almost empty. The device fits under a traditional cardboard mat and sends radio signals to a computer at the bar to alert staff that the customer is awaiting a top up. Not content to restrict its use to drinking they claim it is also effective as a voting device in pub games. The sensors, we are told would react to different movements. These enterprising students say that sports bars have already shown a particular interest in the device. It is dishwasher proof and comes with a recharger. It costs about £50 although they say that the price could be reduced once they are produced in bulk. Popular applications of automation should be encouraged and student projects that have an instant appeal to the public can stimulate interest in our endeavours.

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6. Computer vision surveillance system There can be no greater reward for a researcher in robotics and automation than to have the system he/she has developed save a life. Poseidon, the name given to a computer vision surveillance system that recognises texture, volume and movement in a swimming pool has, for the first time in the UK, helped lifeguards at Bangor North Wales to save a swimmer from drowning. The system is manufactured in France and is already credited with saving three swimmers in that country. This “state-of-the-art” system has the following features: . it is comprised of a network of eight cameras in the pool itself and another ten overhead; . a software system is built, into the computer that controls the operation; . the software system is designed to analyse in real-time the trajectories of swimmers monitored by the cameras; and . the system can alert lifeguards in the first seconds of a potential accident to the exact location of the swimmer in danger. 6.1 Recent rescue using the system In the recent rescue in the UK the alarm sounded after 3 seconds and the entire rescue executed in 62 seconds. A young girl swimmer was pulled unconscious from 12 ft of water at the deep end of a public pool. The girl could not be seen at the bottom of the pool and would have undoubtedly drowned but for the Poseidon system and the prompt response of the life guard. The Poseidon system was developed by the French Vision I0 company and at this pool site cost £65,000 to install. The company say that the series of cameras in and outside the pool: . . . monitors the movements of swimmers, matching the images with a database to detect those in distress or apparently unconscions. It constantly scans the pool, analysing the trajectories of swimmers. Poseidon sounds an alarm on a screen at the life-guard station, picturing the stricken swimmer and indicating the position.

The system took six years to develop and, includes a very complex piece of software. It has been fitted in more that 120 pools across the world, including the US and Japan. There is no doubt that it is virtually impossible for lifeguards to see everything that is happening in a pool all of the time and Poseidon is a welcome application of automation to lifesaving. 7. Robotic systems for gastric surgery Surgical operations performed by robots are now it seems becoming much more common. It is now not a question of reporting the different types of operation but rather of indicating how many hospitals are being equipped with the robotic systems required to carry then out. Surgery in so many cases has now been made easier and quicker when robotic arms with tools are used. A recent report from the Archives of Surgery by surgeons from the Stanford University School of Medicine, California, USA, confirm that using robotic arms operated by remote control in gastric surgery has been successful. In the particular operation described, robotic arms were used in operations to help obese people to lose weight. The surgeons say they have been able to develop

a safe and efficient way for the surgical robot to carry out gastric bypass operations. This, they claim, is an improvement on the traditional techniques known as laparoscopic surgery. In both techniques, special tools with cameras attached are inserted through small holes in the patient’s body. Whilst traditional tools are held in the surgeon’s hands, the robotic tools are operated remotely from a control station. The impact on the current number of such operations when robotic systems are used is yet to be seen. We are told that gastric bypass operations in the US have increased from 29,000 in 1999 to some 141,000 in 2004. The need for successful robotic surgical systems is now self-evident. 8. Future combat systems A review in the New York Times (20 February 2005) tells us that there are plans to produce robot soldiers. It says that: . . . the Pentagon is planning to spend tens of billions of dollars over the next decade to perfect computerized warfare. This may sound like science fiction but the plan to build future combat systems is the realization of an old dream.

What is envisaged is a completely automated army for use in combat on the ground, in the air and on the seas. We can all accept that existing military equipment from tanks to helicopters are being automated already. There are automated remote missile launchers, automated unmanned spy planes and many other innovated devices being researched and produced. All of these new systems are designed to be coordinated by self-configuring networks of satellites, sensor arrays and supercomputers. 8.1 Concept of robot soldiers These developments are easily accepted as part of the systems of military equipment whose design reflects the considerable advances in technology. What is not so easy to contemplate is the concept of robot soldiers. This report tells us that there are already presentations of systems that aim to “get the human out of the loop”. Some are called, “soldier systems”, “networked lethality”, and “war fighter interfaces”. George Johnson who compiles the report on these developments indicates that: The Pentagon’s promotional material doesn’t mention whether the contract for the future combat systems, said to be the biggest in American military history, includes a line item for philosophers. But they may be best equipped to judge whether computers, despite their faster speeds, greater bandwidth and bigger memories, are inherently different – less trustworthy than the gut feelings and hunches of their keepers.

Much of this speculation fails to take into account the difference between producing “soidier systems” that have “intelligence”, that is “smart soldier systems”, or merely putting a military uniform on robots that have been manufactured to our current levels of competence. This, we are told leads to the question – “Can robot soldiers rise above human fraility?” The military has always been plagued with the scenario of misunderstood orders, knee-jerk decisions, etc. Will our understanding of the human brain allow us to design anything other than purely automated creatures that are still remotely controlled by their decision-making keepers?

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8.2 Can we build smart robot soldier systems? There are so many different views about how the mind functions and we certainly need to focus on a particular research strategy if such military systems are to be built. We are told that John Searle in his book Mind: A brief Introduction (2004) has argued for decades that the brain is not just a computer strung together from neurons. The view that the mind is some form of information processor is still the current thinking. If this view persists then we will continue to tackle the task of producing such systems for military and other uses by aping our present computing devices which remain the basis for the design of smart robots. If, as this report indicates the US Pentagon is seriously bidding for future combat systems to be developed in this way, then those who respond are indeed facing an enormous challenge. Notes 1. A discussion “How to breed robots” by Roger Highfield was published in Science (p. 16, UK Daily Telegraph, 18 May 2005). 2. Lipson is at Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA. 3. Leo Lewis, “Human body is the best computer, say scientists”, The Times (14 July 2005), UK.

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Cybernetics and systems on the web Grids, ten years of WWW Consortium, Maribor

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Alex M. Andrew Reading University, Earley, UK Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe grids, an important development of internet-like communication, with references to internet sources of additional information. The aim is to review developments on the internet, especially those of general cybernetic interest. Design/methodology/approach – The tenth anniversary of the World Wide Web Consortium is noted, as well as music festivals in the Lent district of Maribor, which was the venue for the recent WOSC Congress. Findings – The internet provides valuable information on each of the three topics. Practical implications – Grids are an important current development, especially but not exclusively in connection with particle physics research. Originality/value – It is hoped this is a valuable periodic review. Keywords Particle physics, Worldwide web Paper type General review

Grids: the next generation No. 59 of the journal Ercim News (October 2004) is a special issue on the above topic. “Ercim” is an acronym for the European Research Consortium for Informatics and Mathematics and details of the journal can be found at www.ercim.org/publication/ Ercim_News/. At that site it is possible to request a free subscription to the printed journal, as well as back issues where available, and the complete contents of all issues from no. 19 (October 1994) onward can be downloaded. A previous issue dealing with grids is no. 45 (April 2001), with the heading: “Grids: from e-science to e-business”. A grid, in this connection, is a set of sites interconnected as though through the internet, but by links allowing communication of extremely high capacity, with additional requirements of reliability and of small and consistent transmission delay. Such grids allow the collaborative effort of both people and computers at the respective sites. Many challenging issues of architecture and programming have to be considered and an approach to the efficient utilisation of computers linked in a grid is treated under the heading of “cycle-harvesting”. Grids have been set up in many countries and are inevitably expensive. One example that has been achieved at relatively low cost is the Hungarian ClusterGrid, described in the October 2004 issue of Ercim News in a paper by Peter Stefa´n. This has 1,100 nodes and provides 500 Gflops (Giga-flops, or thousands of millions of floating-point operation per second) for Hungarian academic users. Its special feature is that its component clusters serve educational purposes during the day and are connected to the ClusterGrid during nights and weekends.

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The largest working grid is the LHC Computing Grid, or LCG, developed by CERN in collaboration with other physics institutes. The “nested” acronym LHC refers to the Large Hadron Collider, to be completed by CERN in 2007, and to be the world’s largest particle accelerator. This will produce 10 petabytes of information per year, to be distributed for analysis to more than 100,000 computers in one hundred institutions across the world. An idea of the amount of data represented by 10 petabytes is given in one paper by the comment that it is equivalent to a stack of CDs twice the height of Everest. The British contribution to the effort is described in a paper by Sarah Pearce in the October 2004 issue. It has the name GridPP where the last two letters stand for particle physics. It stems from collaboration of about 100 researchers in 19 UK university particle physics groups. It is linked to other prototype grids throughout the world and has been tested by analysing data from US particle physics experiments in which the UK is involved, as well as by “data challenges” designed to simulate the analysis that will be needed when the large Hadron accelerator is up and running. The developments are epitomised by observing that UK particle physics has progressed from web to grid. In the earlier (April 2001) issue, two of the papers refer to achievement of what are effectively supercomputers, consisting of grids with relatively ordinary computers at the nodes. One of the papers refers to a “virtual” and one to a “distributed” supercomputer. It seems likely that the methods developed for management of grids can be the basis of highly-parallel supercomputers, possibly of interest even when the participating CPUs are not geographically separated. The earlier issue has papers outlining the plans of a great many countries for the establishment of grids. In an outline of British plans, John Taylor, Director General of Research Councils, lists four main areas of application, namely: (1) particle physics, with petabyte data flows and extremely large data storage and communication issues; (2) genomics, with huge emerging databases of the human genome, and where metadata, visualisation and interoperability are crucial; (3) climate change, where large in-silico modelling with many variables is particularly important; and (4) engineering systems design. In another review in the issue, David Boyd, Julia Goodfellow, Lois Steenman-Clark and Peter Allan describe the UK e-Science Grid Programme and refer to applications to bioscience, earth system science, and astronomy. Birthday of W3C Elsewhere in the October 2004 issue it is mentioned that 2004 saw the tenth anniversary of the founding of the World Wide Web Consortium, or W3C. The instigator, and still Director, was Tim Berners-Lee, who was also the originator of the world wide web in 1980. On the same page there is the news that, at an investiture on 16 July 2004, he was dubbed a Knight Commander of the British Empire (KBE). Sir Timothy is to be congratulated on this well-deserved honour. The consortium is clearly very much alive, and in the same October 2004 issue there is mention of what was then its latest recommendation, on a speech synthesis markup

language (SSML). W3C Technical Reports can be found, in downloadable form, at: www.w3.org/TR/. At the time of writing, the 2004 report dealing with SSML is one among about 90 W3C recommendations, of which no less than eight are of more recent date. Lent, Maribor I was unable to attend the 13th WOSC Congress in Maribor, Slovenia, and was surprised to receive a postcard from fellow-directors who did attend, referring to a Lent Festival that was held between 24 June and 9 July. For “Lent” as usually understood, these dates would be impossible according to, as far as I know, any church calendar. In fact, the reference is to Lent as a historic district of Maribor, adjacent to the River Drava and with relics of river trade using rafts. An annual music festival has been held there for a number years, and the postcard was with reference to it. Information can be found at the site: http://lent.slovenija.net/index.php?L ¼ 3 (not forgetting the “j” in slovenija, and where the final L ¼ 3 seems to be the indicator for English language). Other sources of information on Maribor, with pictures, are at: www.burger.si/Maribor/ MariborENG.html and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maribor.

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Awards for Excellence During 2005, awards were made to authors whose contributions to cybernetics and systems were judged by independent panels of judges (who were invariably their academic peers), to have shown excellence. The awards for 2005 were: . Literati Club Awards for outstanding papers (1) published in Kybernetes Vol. 33 Nos. 1-10, 2004. . The Kybernetes Research Awards for papers of excellence (2) presented at the 13th International Congress of Cybernetics and Systems of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics (WOSC), and the 6th International Conference of Sociocybernetics. The awards were presented by Professor Robert Valle´e, the President of WOSC at a special ceremony at its 13th International Congress in July 2005. The award winners were: Literati Club Awards for Excellence 2005 Outstanding Paper Award (Norbert Wiener Award) “Complexity analysis, uncertainty management and fuzzy dynamical systems”, D. Dutta Majumder and Kausik Kumar Mujumdar, Electronics and Communication Sciences Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta, India. Kybernetes Vol. 33 No. 7, 2004 pp. 1143-84. Highly Commended Awards “Combination method of rough set and genetic programming”, Yasser Hassan and Eiichiro Tazaki, Department of Control and Systems Engineering, Toin University of Yokahama, Yokahama, Japan. Kybernetes Vol. 33 No. 1, 2004, pp. 98-117. “The footprint of complexity: the embodiment of social systems”, Raul Espejo, Syncho Ltd, Birmingham UK. Kybernetes Vol. 33 Nos. 3/4, 2004 pp. 671-700. “Second-order cybernetics: an historical introduction”, Bernard Scott, Cranfield University, Royal Military College of Science, Shrivenham, Swindon, UK. Kybernetes Vol. 33 Nos 9/10 2004, pp. 1365-78. Kybernetes Research Awards for papers presented at the 13th WOSC Congress Outstanding Paper winner of the Research Award “Luhmann’s View of Meaning Production Through Moralized Communications: Does it Allow for Moral Invention?”, Diane Laflamme-Outremont, Qube´c, Canada

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Highly Commended Awards (in alphabetical order) “Steering and Control of Innovations in Complex Societies”, Bernd R. Hornung, Data Protection Office, Marburg University, Marburg, Germany. “Systems Approach to Complex Systems Modelling with Special Regards to Tourism”, T. Jere Lazanski, TURISTICA-College of Tourism Studies, Obala 29, SI-6320 Portorose and M. Kljajic´, University of Maribor, Faculty of Organisational Sciences, Kidricˇeva, Kranj, Solvenia.

“Do we know What We Do Not Know? Main Weaknesses of Discourse on Management of ‘Complex Learning Organisation’”, Czeslaw Mesjasz, Cracow University of Economics, Krako´w, Poland. “Information Topology – A useful structure to understand the Globalisation Process”, Eufrosina Otlacan and Romulus-Petru Otlacan, Romanian University of Sciences and Arts “Gheorghe Cristea”, Bucharest and Military Academy, Bucharest, Romania. “Intellectics and Inventics”, Laura Panaˇ, Department of Social Sciences, University Politehnica, Bucharest, Romania. “Information and Communication Technologies for Viable Organizations”, Jose´ Perez Rios, E.T.S.I. Informatica Universidad de Valladolid, Spain. “Study on Venture Problem of Potential Optimal Pure Strategy Solution based on Grey Interval Number Matrix Game”, Zhi-geng Fang and Si-feng Liu, School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, P.R. China. The Literati Club Awards are sponsored by the Literati Club – Emerald Publishing Ltd. An engraved plaque is awarded for “The Norbert Wiener Award for an Outstanding Paper” published in Kybernetes Vol. 34, 2004. The Kybernetes Research Awards are sponsored by the Literati Club – Emerald Publishing Ltd, and the Norbert Wiener Institute of Systems and Cybernetics of WOSC. The Kybernetes Research Award – £350.00 (approx. e490.00) Award winner’s plaque/Award Winner’s Certificate. Publication of the full award winning paper in Kybernetes – The International Journal of Systems and Cybernetics (Subject to copyright). Full one-year subscription to Kybernetes and Online service. The Kybernetes Research Awards for Highly Commended Papers Award winner’s certificate/Publication of full award winning paper in Kybernetes (Subject to copyright).

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Communications and forum The early days It was not like that I have to disagree with the assertion by Peter Krieg (Kybernetes vol. 34, no. 3/4, pp. 551-557) that cybernetics, in its early days, was strongly influenced by alleged military origins. On the contrary, its flourishing after the end of the war was an escape from the frustration of war-related activity to something that could be seen as contributing to human welfare. Certainly, in Britain and USA there were many young people familiar with electronics, as a result of work on radar and other wartime developments. Some of them turned their attention to neuroscience, where the pulse techniques that had been pioneered in radar proved ideal for design of stimulators and recording equipment. Ways of making microelectrodes were devised, and it became possible to record from single neurons and also to stimulate selectively. The way seemed clear to analyse the working of the nervous system as one would an electronic device. Of course, the new availability of electronic digital computers was a major influence, but the computer use mainly discussed by cybernetics pioneers in USA was the work in the Aberdeen Proving Grounds on gun control, rather than the Manhattan Project. This work was of course war-related, as was the famous study by Norbert Wiener of prediction for anti-aircraft gun control, but, unlike the atom bomb, effects of these would be targeted solely on combatants. It can now be seen that many attempts to draw parallels between brains and computers were glib and misleading. The model neurons of Pitts and McCulloch were advanced by them as only extremely crude representations of real neurons, but this warning was not taken to heart as widely as it should have been. The magnitude of the problem of understanding the working of the brain was undoubtedly underestimated by many people, including Herbert Simon as shown by the excerpts quoted by Krieg. The motivation, though, was entirely defensible and laudable. There are many distressing diseases of the nervous system and it was reasonable to suppose that the more that was known the better would be the chances of treatment. Also, there was response to what has been described as the greatest challenge faced by science, namely that of unravelling the working of the brain. Artificial intelligence arose as an offshoot of cybernetics, and some of its results are of general applicability, so may be embodied in military as well as other systems. However, the assertion that the early work was supported by the military requires clarification. It is true that the group around Warren McCulloch, as well as Heinz von Foerster’s BCL, received funding from the Office of Naval Research and the corresponding office of the US Air Force. Curiously, however, this was provided without any requirement that the research should have military applications. One of the reasons given by Heinz von Foerster for closing down the BCL was that the service agencies were starting to alter their policy in this respect. It is true that the difficulty of the task of “understanding man’s understanding” was grossly underestimated, and quite basic aspects of brain activity are still little

understood. In certain areas, though, a great deal of progress has in fact been made, especially in examining visual and other sensory pathways. The findings tend to be presented under the heading of neuroscience rather than cybernetics. There are other ways in which cybernetics has left its mark but not its name, as for instance in the ready reference to feedback in numerous contexts, and awareness of the part played by information transfer, as in references to “messenger RNA”. Just how the working of the brain might be understood is by no means clear, and here second-order cybernetics must enter. As has been said (by, I think, Warren McCulloch) a correct theory of the working of the brain would need to have been written by itself. There is much more to cybernetics than brain theory, and under its heading principles inherent in biological control have been applied successfully in, for example, sociology and management. A few of the applications may have been of a military nature, but on the whole the topic is one of peace and goodwill. Alex M. Andrew

Learning with Locker: an appreciation I would like to celebrate and commemorate the life and work of Alfred Locker by talking about key understandings and concepts I learnt from him. I met Alfred Locker in 1978, at the vast, NATO sponsored conference on Cybernetics and Systems that George Klir organised in Binghampton, New York. I was a novice in the academic world from an almost entirely non-academic background. Alfred and I both contributed to a session focussed on the newly published concept of autopoiesis, which was creating great excitement and interest at the time. We soon, as Milan Zeleny, the editor of the resulting volume noted, discovered a certain camaraderie. From Alfred’s point of view, I am not sure what the attraction was. Perhaps it had simply to do with the expression of his essentially generous nature. From mine, there was much to learn from an older academic mentor. My professor, Gordon Pask, was such a mentor for many years, but it was good to have someone from a different background and with a new insight. Alfred gently stepped in and offered me support and guidance. He also introduced me to a different background and culture than I had come from: the German-speaking tradition. One of the things you tend to believe (and get wrong) when you live as a native speaker of such an apparently dominant world language as English, is that that language encompasses everything. Alfred showed me, not by preaching but by the discourse in his papers, the lasting importance and distinctiveness of this German-speaking tradition. I found (and, I am ashamed to say, continue to find) some difficulty in much of what he wrote not so much because of problems in his use of English as in his mindset; the way of thinking and the references that form the backbone of the German academic tradition, in contrast to the Anglo Saxon. Alfred’s contemporary, our mutual friend Richard Jung, has often commented that it is difficult to write about Alfred’s work for an English speaking audience because of just these differences. I concur. Looking through Alfred’s papers you will find as few English names as you will find German in mine! I remain woefully ignorant of the German tradition Alfred made me aware of, but I have come to covet it. The Anglo Saxon

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tradition is in several ways quite different from the German: unless you know both this can remain unnoticed for a long time. There are advantages in each. Confusingly, there are also some strong similarities. I have mentioned that Alfred introduced me to the German academic tradition. The word academic is also important to me. The way the Anglo Saxon tradition operates, and specially how it operated in Britain in the late 1960s and early 1970s when I was a student, meant that it was easy to overlook the explicit rigour and demanding standards of scholarship that are so desirable in academic work, regardless of tradition. The period around 1970 in Britain saw in a short flash a sort of renaissance and optimism that it was wonderful to be part of. It also meant certain ideas and expectations were given special authority and status, but often were not academic in either intention or value. In my case (and the case of many others), this meant that the academic world was treated with less respect than I later learned was appropriate. Alfred was one of the continental thinkers I encountered in the late 1970s who taught me the importance of understanding what it means, within the German tradition, to be an academic. I find this lesson of almost daily importance when I teach designers, whose association with the academy often remains as ill-formed as mine was around 1970. This is not surprising because the original background from which I came to study cybernetics was design. So, from Alfred Locker, I learnt about both the German and the academic tradition. I have so far avoided talking about Alfred Locker’s work. In part this is because I continue to lack fluency in the German tradition (and language), and so feel less than well-informed, and reluctant to pontificate. Alfred, I think, also recognised this distance: he used to tell me about the German group with whom he could communicate in a manner that suited his thinking and his background, often at special meetings here in Baden, where he displayed in public his TransClassical Systems Theory. It sounded to me like his intellectual home. Nevertheless, I do wish to make a comment, and it is as fundamental to my understanding as the lessons Alfred taught me about the German academic tradition. There is one word that seems to me central to Alfred Locker’s thinking. That word is presupposition. Going back over the papers I have, and bringing to mind our correspondence and our conversations, I find the notion of presupposition always present, suffusing everything, truly a background concept (for that is what presuppositions are) contrarily demanding the attention of the spotlight! From the time when we met, when we were both trying to get to grips with the concept of autopoiesis, until the most recent paper of his I have, the notion of presupposition is omni-present. The involved observer is also present, but one can suggest that this observer is, itself, a presupposition necessary for the notion of presupposition: for where do we find presuppositions if not in the observer? If you have an observer, I think Alfred would have agreed, you have presuppositions – and if you have presuppositions you need an observer to have them. I know Alfred would have insisted you always have an observer! The best way I can think of to articulate what Alfred taught me about presuppositions is through a personal example. Second order cybernetics (the sort of cybernetics that most interests me) was developed to take into account not the possibility of the observer being involved in his/her observation, but the inevitability of this involvement. Alfred also took this

position. However, as is well known, there are several problems associated with the position, one of which is primarily formal. Briefly, the problem is that, according to formal Systems Theory (based on the infamous theorem of Kurt Goedel), no formal system can be described by itself in such a manner that the description is known to be simultaneously both complete and consistent. This argument has been used extensively in debates concerning A.I., and can be seen to go back at least as far as Lady Lovelace’s argument that (in a programmed machine), any intelligence we may find is put there by the programmer and is thus the programmer’s, not the machine’s. Gordon Pask (discussing Lars Loefgren’s paper “An axiomatic explanation of complete self-reproduction”) showed his doctoral class a way round this, which goes as follows. Say some system is described by another system so that the arrangement is of a describing meta-system looking down on a system being described. Now say that gradually the meta-system’s description improves and the difference between the two systems decreases by a process of cybernetic error reduction or by slippage of both the system and the meta-system towards each other. It is not beyond our imagining that at some time the improvement will be such that the description is effectively both complete and consistent: as Pask explained it, the system itself becomes the meta-system to the system’s meta-system: that it, the system becomes its own meta-meta-system. My account of Pask’s elaboration on Loefgren’s theme is inadequate in many respects. Nevertheless, you will surely see both the appeal and the distastefulness of this manoeuvre: it is a practical work-around which scarcely concerns itself with Goedel’s theorem at all! At the time, I found this manoeuvre exciting, probably because of the sort of person I am and my educational background. It also initiated my thinking about such “untouchables” of the European tradition as logic, which I can summarise thus: if there is something we need from (in this case) logic, but it cannot be provided, then we have to choose between saying that what we require is an illegitimate requirement, or that logic needs to be amended, to change. For example, cellular reproduction seems to require that cells contain their own perfect – that is, complete and consistent – self-description, which Go¨del’s theorem rules out. This creates a problem if we are to deal with this phenomenon using logic. For many, logic is unchangeable, and to propose changing it is a form of academic blasphemy. To me it is just obvious: if the logic does not work for what we legitimately need, change it (but change it sensitively). I see logic as a construct: consequently, I find myself not so worried about Goedel’s Theorem as those who think of logic as some truth. However, I do not think Alfred thought of logic in this way: his is more respectful and, quite possibly, more deeply understanding. He wanted to find a way from within the classical tradition of logic: to transcend the problem. To accept logic as a given, a fact in the background, is to make it a presupposition. I believe that, for Alfred, logic was a presupposition. I don not deny that he was prepared to modify logic, or, at least, to accept, in particular, the major reformulations proposed by Gotthard Gu¨nther which Alfred Locker himself extended. I believe the choice I have indicated does not concern truth, but is an aesthetic choice. I think for Alfred it was more like a truth, which is why he would sometimes refer to me (wittily and flippantly) as just being witty and flippant. As far as he was concerned, this was a matter of great seriousness, which may explain why he could get so irritated with colleagues who did not see it that way. I think (though we did not discuss it) that his

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vast respect for and love of the German tradition meant that he wanted to follow it and remain within it. My choice was to stand for a moment outside so that the tradition could be seen freshly. My experience is that when one does this, one attains an immense sense of freedom, release and relief – and one then finds that the stepping outside was not such a radical thing to do. Thus, Alfred Locker worked from the traditional base, respecting and extending it, always hoping to find a way, in contrast to my more iconoclastic (and 1970 British) approach. He initially took the logical limitations as absolute, and worked to find a way that transcended the limitations, imposed by Goedel’s theorem, that faced Systems Theory concerning the matter of descriptions made by the present observer, to incorporate all observers together with their own presuppositions. His position lead him to think of the observer not as a constructor but as a judge of what the supreme observer gave us. He talks (in “The Present Status of General System Theory, 25 Years after Ludwig von Bertalanffy’s Decease – A Critical Overview”) thus: In order to detect isomorphic structures in several realms of reality the observer – or judge of the situation (in particular: the systems theorist) – has necessarily to assume a position above the domains whose structures he compares one with the other. Would he belong to these structures he could not discern them! This fact means that he has to place himself into a proper domain of his own. The difference between him and the object he observes (or more correctly: judges) has to be interpreted as a difference between (a) objects – which must by no means only be physical bodies, but also can be formal structures or relations – and (b) presuppositions which allow for figuring out these very same objects.

And, again: . . .[although] the author has the privilege to belong to the group which continues Gu¨nther’s work – some objections must be made. The critical question has to be posed whether (or not) this approach restricts itself unnecessarily to formal methods whereas a real turn towards trans-classical view should incorporate non-formal methods, too. The resulting break-trough towards recognition of non-formal entities – called presuppositions – would connect to von Bertalanffy’s approach.

Here Alfred expresses both the view of the position he took when he and I met, and the developments that came later in his life and allowed him, he believed, to transcend the problem of presuppositions. In Alfred Locker’s world, as I understand it, there are always presuppositions that will always limit us (or, equally leave us open – the trade off is to limit in order to understand at least something). Because of these presuppositions, we all see differently and the observer’s presence cannot be ignored. Of course, arguing this, itself, can give rise to presuppositions. Thus, what I might call an interest and sensitivity which Alfred brought to me when he first raised the matter of presuppositions, enables the involvement of the present observer, as a result of which much of my world makes better sense. I have therefore enjoyed learning to live with presuppositions. And I have enjoyed the fact that Alfred’s presuppositions and mine were different and, thus, lead to the enjoyment one can gain from such differences. In my paper “The same is different” which appeared in Zeleny’s book, Autopoiesis, and that marks the start of my association with Alfred Locker, I argued that every time

we say two things are the same we are inevitably saying they are different. This is a point so obvious that it is normally ignored. If this is not a presupposition, it is very close to being one! In the light of my affirmation of Learning from Locker, it is nice to see a circularity that suggests a reciprocity. In the same late paper I have quoted from, Alfred talks of the shared common and the individual difference. Once again, there is at least a resonance, just as there is in the views we arrived at concerning presuppositions and the observer. The respectful way that Alfred developed his position, remaining within, yet extending the range of the German academic tradition, was different, and I have learnt much from that. But where we ended up is, while not being the same, at least similar enough to be recognisable to this observer. An appreciation by one human of another cannot really exist without some sort of interaction. The pretence that the author who is eulogising is not part of the eulogy would be as alien to Alfred as it is to me. It is inevitable, in my way of understanding, that my appreciation is not only biographical (of him) but also autobiographical (of me). I am sorry that my person is so visible in my attempts to eulogise Alfred Locker, and apologise if it appears I have somehow usurped what should (and is intended to) be his. I am glad to have known Alfred Locker, to have been able to call him my friend, and to have shared a long part of my life with him. Of later years, I used to meet him in a modest restaurant in the Schottentor in central Vienna called, by Alfred, Kupferdachl, but more generally known as Zum Leupold (Both names are correct.). Some of you may know it. This restaurant has a special place in my personal Vienna, being the first restaurant I went to, and the restaurant where Gordon Pask used to meet friends and colleagues. I last met Alfred 15 months ago, in the same place and eating (of course) a Wienerschnitzel. When Markus Locker did me the honour of asking me to talk about Alfred on this occasion, I downloaded the email invitation in the same restaurant, using their free wifi internet service. For me, receiving this invitation at the Kupferdachl closes a circle – actually, a double circle, including not only Alfred, but also Gordon – a circle which connects varieties of cybernetics and years of relationships. I hope to be in Vienna in November at an event held in the name of another of Alfred’s friends, his fellow Viennese Heinz von Foerster, and I will return to the Kupferdachl to remember my mentor and friend, Alfred Locker, and to eat a Wienerschnitzel in his honour. I would like to thank you all, but specially Markus, for allowing me to take part in this celebration, even if my presence has had to be verbal rather than actual. I would like now to say goodbye to my good friend Alfred. May you rest in peace. Ranulph Glanville CyberEthics Research, UK

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Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 228-238 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X

News, conferences and technical reports 13th International Congress of Cybernetics and Systems of WOSC Congress Report by the President, Professor R. Valle´e The 13th International Congress of Cybernetics and Systems of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics (WOSC) was held at the University of Maribor (Slovenia), Faculty of Economics and Business, from July 6 to 10, 2005, in cooperation with the Research Committee 51 on Sociocybernetics which constituted, under the presidency of Prof. Bernard Hornung, an internal Symposium (6th RC51 Sociocybernetics Conference). The main theme was innovation, but all the topics, considered in the past WOSC conferences, were welcome. The official language was English with the possibility to use French, with transparencies, or the like, in English. A CD-Rom, containing the texts of the communications, was distributed to the participants as well as volumes. On July 6, at the opening session, there were greetings of Prof. Rato Ovin, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business, Prof. Matjaz Mulej, President of the Slovenian Systems Research Society, Prof. Robert Valle´e, President of the WOSC, Prof. Brian H. Rudall, Director of the Norbert Wiener Institute and Vice-President of WOSC, Prof. Bernard Hornung, President of RC52. Prof. Robert Valle´e read messages from Professor J. Rose, Founder and Honorary Director-General of WOSC, and Dr Alex M. Andrew, Director-General of WOSC who were unfortunately unable to come, for health problems. After giving the list of the cities where the WOSC Congresses have been held since 1969 (London 1, Oxford, Bucharest 1, Amsterdam, Mexico-City, Paris, London 2, New York, New Delhi, Bucharest 2, Uxbridge, Pittsburgh), he thanked Prof. Matjaz Mulej and the Local Program and Organizational Committee for their very important contribution also the University of Maribor, the Faculty of Economics and Business, the Institute of Entrepreneurship and the Slovenian Systems Research Society. He made a special mention of UNESCO and the Encyclopedia of Life and Support Systems (EOLSS) for their moral and material support. The opening session was followed by plenary lectures: “The contemporary reordering of social knowledge: the role of systems approaches and complexly studies”, by Richard E. Lee, “Inverse transfer and epistemo-praxiology” by Robert Valle´e and “Requisite holism by co-operation of systems theories: an invention or innovation in inquiry of innovation” by Matjaz Mulej, Stefan Kajzer, Vojko Potocan, Bojan Rosi. On July 9, took place a plenary session whose first part was devoted to the Best Papers Awards, granted by Emerald, publisher of Kybernetes, the official Journal of WOSC. Its Editor-in-Chief, Prof. Brian H. Rudall, after giving informations about the Norbert Wiener Institute of WOSC of which he is Director and Founder and about Kybernetes, announced the awards. The presentation was made by Professor Valle´e. During the second part of this session, an Honorary Fellowship of the WOSC was presented to Prof. Matjaz Mulej by Prof. Robert Valle´e,

Dr Alex M. Andrew (in absentia) and Prof. Brian H. Rudall, for his scientific achievements in the fields of cybernetics and systems and for his very important contribution to the organization and success of the 13th WOSC Conference which attracted about 100 participants from Europe (with an important delegation from Romania), the Americas, and Asia. The sessions were devoted to: contemporary natural-artificial dualism, economic systems, education cybernetics, engineering and information systems, grey systems, management systems, mathematical systems, natural systems, tourism cybernetics, and viable organizations. The incorporated RC51 Symposium included topics, often connected with innovation, such as: sustainability, communication, past and future of sociocybernetics, governance, entrepreneurship, methodological problems, technology, psychology, theory, and perspectives. The congressists had the opportunity to participate to the festival of Lent (a part of Maribor), to an official dinner in an ancient restaurant and, on Sunday 11, to a trip on river Drava in a comfortable raft.

Summaries of addresses presented at the opening ceremony of the 13th WOSC Congress 2005 Presidential Welcome – Professor Robert Valle´e I must begin with two messages from Professor J. Rose, Founder and Honorary Director of WOSC and from Dr Alex Andrew, the Director General of WOSC, who have been unable to attend (these messages are published in full on the following pages). I have little to add to these messages. I think nevertheless that a list of the cities where the congresses of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics (also known as “Organisation Mondiale Pour La Syste´mique et la Cyberne´tique”) may be of interest. They were: London (1969), Oxford, Bucharest, Amsterdam, Mexico City, Paris, London, New York, New Delhi, Bucharest, Uxbridge, (West London), Pittsburgh. The official language has generally been English, but also French for Paris and French and Rumanian for Bucharest. I must say, also, that WOSC has instituted an Honorary Fellowship with 29 living recipients and that our Honorary President in memoriam is Norbert Wiener. Professor Brian Rudall, the vice-president of WOSC will give you information about Kybernetes, the official journal of WOSC, and also about the Norbert Wiener Institute of WOSC which he founded and of which he is the Director. I wish the greatest success to the 13th International Congress of Cybernetics and Systems, and particularly to the Sociocybernetics group under the presidency of Professor Bernard Hornung. I thank very much Professor Matjaz Mulej and the Local Organising Committee for their important work, also the University of Maribor, the Faculty of Economics and Business, the Institute of Entrepeurship, the Slovenian Systems Research Society. A special mention is due to UNESCO and the Encyclepedia of Life Support Systems for their moral and material help. Thank you.

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Brief address to the 13th International Congress of Cybernetics and Systems (July, 2005) [1] Professor J. Rose, Honorary Director and Founder of WOSC. I would like to welcome the participants of the 13th Congress in Maribor and I hope it will be a success. Professor Valle´e, the WOSC President, has asked me to address the Congress; I am gratefu1 to him for the invitation to deliver (though not in person) a brief address that may be of some interest. While cogitating about the contents of the address, I could not help thinking about the very first congress in 1969, held in London, which attracted a large body of cyberneticians and system scientists, including such luminaries as Stafford Beer, W. Ross Ashby, Gordon Pask, W. Grey Walter, etc. in-addition to several scientists of repute from 24 countries. The event was supported by many international bodies, including UNESCO, ILO, etc. The proceedings of the Congress were published in three volumes, entitled Progress of Cybernetics, containing over 200 papers arranged in the following groups: main papers (by Beer, Pask, Walter, George, Boulanger, Ross Ashby, Masturzo and Glushkov); the Meaning of Cybernetics, Neuro-and biocybernetics, Cybernetics and industry (automation), Social and economic consequences (including management); Cybernetics and artifacts; Cybernetics and natural sciences; and cybernetics and social sciences . . . a vast array of sciences and technologies presented by experts of repute. In fact, the Congress marked a milestone in the history of cybernetics and systems. The aim of the event was to establish cybernetics as an interdisciplinary science on solid foundations without spurious accretions, to exchange up-to-date information, and to develop a more efficient liaison between various scientists on an international scale. The highlight of the Congress was the official banquet under the patronage of the Lord Mayor of London at the Guildhall. This glittering event was attended by several hundred leaders of industry and science, the main addresses being delivered by Marshall McLuhan, Stafford Beer and Ross Ashby. In fact, the Congress was held on the 21st forma1 birthday of cybernetics founded by Norbert Wiener. As a result of a post-congress world-wide enquiry and discussions at the Congress itself, it was decided to establish an international body, the World Organisation of Cybernetics and Systems, comprising representatives of relevant bodies in 36 countries, the first Chairman of Council being W. Ross Ashby, Vice-Chairman Stafford Beer (and myself as Director-General). I am sorry to take up so much time with a detailed description of events leading to the establishment of the WOSC and the organisation of subsequent 12 congresses in various cities of Europe, Asia and the Americas. It is hoped that the 14th Congress will be held in 2008, to follow the illustrious tradition of triennial events and further the tremendous work began in 1969. I think it is of interest to note that another important result of the first congress was the inauguration and publication of the International Journal of Cybernetics and Systems, Kybernetes, a reputable and outstanding journal, under the Editorship of the Professor B.H. Rudall, who is also the Director (and founder of the Norbert Wiener Institute). Finally, may I thank the President of the WOSC, Professor Robert Valle´e, for his encouragement to write this short note and for his valiant efforts to advance the cause of the WOSC and its activities. I very much regret I was unable to attend the Congress

because of old age and ill health. I hope you will all enjoy the occasion and lay the foundations for the 14th Congress in 2008. Message to the 13th Congress of WOSC delivered by Professor R. Valle´e from Dr Alex Andrew, Director-General of WOSC I am very sorry that I cannot attend this Congress, because of a temporary health problem. I send my greetings, and best wishes for a Congress that will be both enjoyable and stimulating, in the beautiful surroundings of Slovenia. As the new Director-General of WOSC I would like to pay tribute to the efforts and achievements of the two previous holders of the position, namely Professor John Rose and Professor Robert Valle´e. Each of them has shown supreme skill and judgement in managing the affairs of WOSC, notably – but not only – in arranging a Congress every three years since the first in 1969. Professor Brian Rudall has played an important part throughout, and for a time we had Professor Stafford Beer as President. My appointment as Director-General is an honour, but at the same time a challenge and a responsibility. My predecessors are “a hard act to follow”. I am very glad that they, as well as Professor Rudall, continue to be part of the team, as do also our colleagues worldwide. I hope that our combined efforts will ensure that WOSC continues to flourish and to contribute to the intellectual environment. Have a good Congress! Note 1. Delivered to the Congress by Professor R. Valle´e

Address presented by Professor B.H. Rudall, Vice-President WOSC/Director of the Norbert Wiener Institute and Editor-in-Chief of Kybernetes May I welcome all participants to the 13th International Congress of Cybernetics and Systems of WOSC and the 6th International Conference of Sociocybernetics. It is a pleasure to see so many familiar faces and, of course, so many new ones. May I also express our thanks to our hosts for their kind invitation to hold these events at Maribor. WOSC has a great congress tradition that has lasted more than 40 years. Maribor will be remembered as an important event rather than just a place on a map of Europe. In the same way as we refer in our literature and citations to the London/Oxford/Paris/Amsterdam/New York/Bucharest/New Delhi Congresses and we will allude to Slovenia, not only as the latest member of the EEC, but a country where cybernetics and systems are thriving! I would like to echo what Professor Essor Valle´e has said about Drs Rose and Andrew – I spoke to both before I left the UK and they regret their absence and wish me to express their personal greetings to you all-they tell me with confidence they will be at our next meetings. Since our last Congress we will all have a personal list of those who will no longer be with us-my list includes Gordon Pask/Petsi Masani/Charles Muses/Heinz von Foerster/Stafford Beer . . . all made lasting contributions to our field of endeavour. Stafford Beer in one of his last papers published in Kybernetes asked “What is

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cybernetics?” his theme was to link Cybernetics and Systems to current events and to the future. He ended his paper with: “We should continue to seek answers . . . orthodox solutions are unlikely to be successful”. We do well to ask what is Cybernetics and where we are heading? Are we archieving our goals? Are we relevant to the modern world? Heisenberg, the architect of the uncertainty principle who coined the words “Cosmic Snag” said that we cannot know an electron’s speed and its position, the act of measurement alters the system (a 2nd order Cybernetics situation) he, you may recall, was caught speeding near his university campus and asked by the speed cop. “Do you know how fast you were going?” No he said, but I know exactly where I am. I would suggest that in Cybernetics and Systems we believe we know where we are but have no real idea of where we are going or whether we can reach our goals. AI is a prime example of this. At the 7th Congress in London in 1987 there was much concern about progress in AI the best we could do was to give a computer an IQ of 5 (-Turing would not have been excited) the answer it was decided was to aim at the moon but first get down from the top of the tree and start again at ground level. This may well be the strategy we should take in many of our studies and perhaps use the unorthodox methods that Beer envisaged. We rely on all contributors to the programme to help us realise our goals. Maybe at Maribor this week we have the Wieners/Ashbys/McCollochs/Pasks/Beers and von Foersters of the future. To that end the Kybernetes Research Awards donated by the WOSC Norbert Wiener Institute and the Journal publishers – Emerald, will help us to recognise and encourage excellence in our work. Have a very successful and enjoyable stay at Maribor.

Conference reports Review of CybCon 04 – “Cybernetics and Public Administration”: Annual Conference of UK Cybernetics Society, jointly with Metaphorum [2] The 2004 Annual Conference of the Cybernetics Society, on the theme of “Cybernetics and Public Administration” was held, jointly with Metaphorum, in London during the afternoon of Friday 3 September, and all day on Saturday 4th. Metaphorum is a society that arose out of what has become known as a Staffordian Syntegration in 2003, the reference being to the procedure for team discussion conforming to edges of a regular icosahedron, introduced by Stafford Beer (1994). The topic that was addressed in the 2003 event, held in the University of Hull, was: “What should we do with Stafford’s legacy/gift?” The Metaphorum Society was formed to promulgate and extend Stafford’s initiatives in management cybernetics. Its President, Professor Alfredo Moscardini of the University of Sunderland, participated in the recent conference, as did also Dr Allenna Leonard, the former partner of Stafford Beer who is now President of the American Society for Cybernetics, and also Stafford’s daughter, the painter Vanilla Beer. Details of Metaphorum, including its origins, can be found at: www. metaphorim.org. An account of the conference can be found on the website: www.cybsoc.org. Selected papers are published in this special double issue of Kybernetes.

The start on Friday afternoon was on deck chairs in St James’ Park, in excellent sunny weather but with traffic noise that made things difficult. Nick Green delivered a fascinating account of a planned IT system for the National Health Service, to link all GP surgeries and hospitals and other facilities. This should be efficient and should make available statistical data in ways hitherto impossible. It was indicated by the speaker how part of the system could be mapped onto Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model. Although Nick was prepared to strain his voice it was not feasible, in the park, to follow the original plan for clustered discussion sessions, and the meeting moved to a rather less noisy alternative location above a pub in Whitehall. The first presentation here was by Isaac Hayut-Man, Academy of Jerusalem, on proposals for a peaceful and appropriate treatment of the old city of Jerusalem. It was suggested that all the faiths involved should agree to leave the sites within the city intact, under control of an interfaith body to be established. It is planned to promote the arrangement by forming a temple-shaped laser display over the city that would be effectively a scoreboard for a peacekeeping Olympics, and to spread awareness by giving access to a VR representation of the city as an interactive computer game. Details can be found at: www.thehope.org and are presented in a fine collection of art reproductions in Wired magazine for April 2004, at: www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.04/holyland.html. A feature of the meeting was its international flavour, and the next speaker was Dr Leonie Solomons of the University of Sunderland who explained the nature and origins of conflict in Sri Lanka, with details of the arrivals of the various ethnic groups, with their languages (and alphabets) and religions. Aspects of proposed partitioning of the territory were examined, with reference to such things as agricultural value of respective areas, and access to ports. The central problem is how to form a stable community. Some views of Humberto Maturana were found to be relevant. Two further speakers on the Friday afternoon were Luc Hoebeke, with affiliations in both Belgium and the University of Amsterdam, and Margaret Heath of the Free University of Brussels. Both of them discussed aspects of the Viable System Model in relation to cognitive science and sociology. The venue on the Saturday was a room in the London School of Economics, with projection facilities and no traffic noise. The proceedings began with an address from Prof. Moscardini in which he contrasted the cybernetics field with his own earlier speciality of system dynamics. One difference is that the support for management cybernetics is fragmented, consisting in UK of the two sponsoring bodies for the present conference, with Cybernetics North as a third (WOSC was not explicitly mentioned, though it can provide a common focus and is already involved through Kybernetes). Reference was made to the use of cybernetic principles in a project in the Ukraine. This address was followed by a symposium, introduced by Allenna Leonard, in which three speakers discussed possibilities for systemic development of the AIDS programme of FAO, mainly with reference to Africa. The three speakers were Dr Angela Espinosa of the University of Hull, Dr Marcela Villarreal of FAO, and John Clarke of WHO. The emphasis was on social consequences of the disease, which promotes inequality and is itself promoted by inequality. Many large families have to be supported at subsistence level by a grandparent because the parent generation has

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perished. There are also widows of AIDS victims who are destitute because they are excluded from the clan they joined when they married, the exclusion being made because they are likely to be infected (and with the usual sex bias in such matters, such that they are often blamed for the problem in the first place). The resulting inequality directly leads to spread of the disease because destitute women and children turn to prostitution. John Clarke referred to “organisational autism” and the reluctance in the press and elsewhere to broach topics that are “politically incorrect”, especially references to sexual behaviour. This is a very difficult area, especially in the context of cultures that are unfamiliar to Europeans, but one where scrupulous political correctness is inappropriate. It was mentioned by one of the earlier speakers that the countries most affected by AIDS are contiguous and the infection has largely followed truck routes. In the afternoon, Dr Steve Wright, formerly of the Omega Foundation, gave a systems description of the Northern Ireland conflict. His statistical analysis strongly supported the view that terrorism thrives on the attempt to suppress it, an observation that is acknowledged in various papers of Stafford Beer and that is not popular with current world leaders. He also mentioned some little-known aspects of events in Ireland that do not reflect well on the administration, and chilling anti-terrorist gadgetry under development in commercial laboratories in USA. The final part of the meeting was a presentation and discussion on “identity and structure” led by Dr Paul Stokes, a sociologist in Trinity College, Dublin, and Luc Hoebeke. A feeling of identity can belong to an individual or to a group and is argued to be recursive and related to viability and to the Viable System Model. The theme was developed at length by Stokes, and then the presentation by Hoebeke evoked a good deal of disagreement and controversy. A long paper by Paul Stokes is available at: www.cybsoc.org/IdentityandProcess.pdf. The conference was highly successful and Nick Green in particular is to be congratulated for the local arrangements, which may be a pattern for future events (except for the first part in a noisy public park!). Alex M. Andrew

Note 2. Editor’s note: This special double issue of Kybernetes is based on papers presented at this event. This review is accordingly reprinted for the information of readers. Reference Beer, S. (1994), Beyond Dispute: The Invention of Team Syntegrity, Wiley, Chichester.

UK Cybernetics Society 30th Annual Conference Developments in Cybernetics The conference was held on Saturday 10 September 2005 in the Council Room of King’s College, London, and was a successful event with a varied programme. There were eight presentations in all, four in each of the morning and afternoon sessions. The first was by Jeremy Gordon on the topic: “Modern developments in low-level programming”. He reviewed developments in computing in general terms, and observed that multi-stream computing, and hence the interactive nature of the modern

PC, became a practical possibility with the advent of 32-bit processors, and further possibilities are opened up by 64-bit processors, and by multiple processors on a single chip. Although modern practice does not readily allow it, it can be useful and instructive to operate “close to the machine”, and the speaker described a system allowing the writing and debugging of programs in assembler language, all operating in a Windows environment. Details, and the opportunity of free download, can be found at the address: www.GoDevTool.com. The next presentation was by Tony Wilkes of Organum Consulting on the topic of Musical Score Recognition. Some of the problems were those also arising in optical character recognition, but it was demonstrated that components in musical scores have remarkable diversity and may be superimposed on each other. The value of the scheme would be the storage of musical compositions in a standard digital form that could be used for future printing or performance. An intriguing possibility is that the scheme might be linked to a further stage of analysis using methods developed by a group headed by Longuet-Higgins, allowing ascription of a key signature to any note or chord, and hence the synthesis of music having true or “just” intonation as achieved by singers and violinists, rather than its approximation by keyboard instruments using the 12-note octave. It is interesting to note, parenthetically, that the great Helmholz (1954) was an enthusiastic advocate of just temperament and lists various attempts to achieve a close approximation using instruments having up to 53 keys in each octave. The third presentation was by Nick Hampshire, founder of AFAICS Research (where the initials stand for “as far as I can see”), and former editor of Electronics Today International. His topic was: “From ink and paper to e-ink and e-paper – the impact of technology on the printed word”. The magnitude of the impact was indicated by reference to the storage of what would amount to a small library on a single DVD, with the possibility of reproducing all of it at trivial cost. It has been predicted that by the end of this century only 10 percent of new published material will be in printed form. Nevertheless, paper and ink have advantages of lightness, robustness, and readability under varying conditions of light, as well as ease of making annotations. A survey has shown that a large proportion of electronic documents are printed out by their recipients for convenient reading. Attempts are being made, notably in Japan and Eindhoven, to provide digital printout duplicating the desirable properties of ink and paper. A small light screen of A5 size was passed round, showing text that was formed by black “ink” particles moved into position electrophoretically. Attention is now being given to flexible media, under the heading of “flexible plastic electronics”. The speaker warned that there is an urgent need for standardisation in the area, so as to avoid incompatibilities like that between Betamax and VHS standards for video recording. The morning session ended with a dynamic presentation by Dr Susan Blackmore of the University of the West of England, entitled: “The evolution of meme machines”. The idea of a “meme” was introduced by Richard Dawkins and discussed by Daniel Dennett as well as by the speaker herself in her book The Meme Machine. Compared to other creatures, humans have a unique capacity for imitation and a meme can be defined as a unit of cultural transmission or of imitation. Although the evolution of

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memes has obvious parallels with genetic evolution, the speaker emphasised that the theory should not be seen as analogy but as existing hi its own right. It was claimed that memes are transmitted between individuals without the latter having any say in the matter, and in this sense they are like the “selfish gene” of Dawkins. There is, however, selection, and it does not follow that individuals incorporating memes are necessarily selfish. The speaker admitted that “selfish” was not the ideal word to use in the context though she had not been able to think of a better one. The “meme machine”, or process of mimetic evolution, can be viewed as being subject to viral infection, with religions branded as a particularly significant type of virus. Secularism can be seen as a meme but its spread is limited because its advocates refuse to employ unfair tactics such as the threat of hellfire. As might be expected, a lively discussion ensued. The speaker has a web site: www.susanblackmore.co.uk/memetics/ and considers the world wide web to be the greatest meme machine yet created. The first presentation in the afternoon was by Tom Campbell of TeleGlobal International Ltd, with the title: “SNAP: secure network alternative payments”. He described a scheme for using cards, with PIN numbers but without “chips” or other expensive security arrangements, to allow the convenient transmission of relatively small amounts of money. They would be used for everyday transactions in shops as well as over the internet, for instance, for downloading music and for online gambling. The scheme has been developed and studied over two years and is compatible with existing financial arrangements. It is, in fact, due to be launched in the UK at the end of the coming October, so will be in operation, and probably commonplace, before this account appears in print. The company will inevitably derive a surplus due to cards being lost or forgotten while still carrying value, and this is to be given to a charity. In discussion, the ethicality of selecting a charity without giving customers a say in the matter was questioned. The next presentation was by Doug Haynes, Director of the School of Business Information of the Liverpool John Moores University, and of Cybernetics North. His topic was: “Disseminating the Stafford Beer archives – DVD illustrations”. He reported on a major project to collect and present records of talks and discussions by Stafford Beer. A number of video clips were shown, some of them with rather unsatisfactory sound reproduction. The DVDs are to be made generally available once some technical aspects have been attended to. The third of the afternoon presentations was by Raul Espejo, Professor of Information Management at the University of Lincoln, who collaborated with Stafford Beer for 30 years. His title was: “Responsible governance is good cybernetics”, where “governance” is the term used by Stafford to denote regulatory performance of higher quality than comes from existing governments. The speaker discussed mainly his present concern with arrangements for disposal of nuclear waste. In this he found a lack of communication between interested parties, even between the bodies concerned with disposal of waste and those responsible for decommissioning nuclear reactors. He referred to a principle of “requisite organisation”, similar to “requisite variety” to ensure appropriate “operational coupling”. This should be achieved with regard to varying cultures and conditions, epitomised by the observation that “transparency” is much more than a matter of making information available. A desirable strategy is inclusion, for instance, by the involvement of a representative of friends of the earth in decisions about disposal. These valid and pertinent conclusions were claimed to follow from Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model, though no detailed derivation was given.

The final presentation was by Stephen Gage, Professor of Innovative Technology, University College, London. His topic was: “The wonder of trivial machines”, the reference being to Heinz von Foerster’s distinction between trivial machines and a nontrivial variety. The speaker is a designer and architect who was taught by Gordon Pask, and reference was made to Gordon’s assertion that architecture can be seen as a conversation between an architect and the public. The essential property of a nontrivial machine is unpredictability and an architect can embody something of this by creating a structure that produces different impressions depending on viewpoint and conditions of light. Usually the structure as such is static and so in a sense trivial, though there can be variability in lighting and other effects. The fascination of the “chaos pendulum” as a desk toy illustrates the impact of variability and particularly of unpredictability. Currently, the variability of architectural structures does not have input from viewers, but this may change, prompted by availability of low-cost transducers. In the twenty-first century structures will be designed to be interactive. Though not mentioned by the speaker, an early study by Pask (1971) of interactive robotic theatre performances might give a lead. It can be seen that the programme was varied and informative. This was another highly successful Annual Conference. Alex M. Andrew References Helmholz, H. (1954), On the Sensations of Tone, Dover Publications, New York, NY (first German edition 1862). Pask, G. (1971), “A comment, a case history and a plan”, in Reichardt, J. (Ed.), Cybernetics, Art and Ideas, Studio Vista, London, pp. 76-99.

15th International Conference on Systems Science, Wroclaw University of Technology 7-10 September 2004 – WOSC president’s address Mr Rector, Mr Chairman of the Congress, Mr Chairman of the Organizing Committee, dear colleagues. It is a great honour and pleasure for me to welcome, at this opening ceremony, the participants to the 15th International Congress on Systems Science organized by the Institute of Control and Systems Engineering of Wroclaw University of Technology, directed by Professor Zdzislaw Bubnicki, President of the Polish Committee of Automation of Polish Academy of Sciences. I wish a great success to the Congress on behalf of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics, in short WOSC, also known as Organisation Mondiale de Syste´mique et de Cyberne´tique, co-sponsor of this Conference with the Committee of Automation and Robotics of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The links between WOSC and the Institute of Control and Systems Engineering have already been started, particularly with the presentation to Professor Bubnicki of an Honorary Fellowship in 2001 at the occasion of the WOSC Congress in Pittsburgh. Moreover, Kybernetes, the official journal of WOSC, will be allowed to publish, as well as Systems Science, some communications to this congress. In the name of Prof. J. Rose Founder, Dr Alex Andrew Director-General, Prof. Brian Rudall Vice-President of WOSC and myself, I renew my wishes. Remembering the

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contributions of Poland to systems science in fields such as cybernetics with a precursor like Trentowski (1843), praxiology, economics, cybernetics, automation and the great diversity of nations represented at this Congress I am sure that this manifestation, 15th of a long list of conferences to which I participated many times, will be as successful as usual. Prof. Robert Valle´e President of WOSC Sixth International Conference on Computing Anticipatory Systems The 6th International Conference on Computing Anticipatory Systems (CASYS’03) has been held from 11 to 16 August 2003, at the Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Lie`ge. Sponsors and sponsorships were: Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ministe`re de la Communaute´ Franc¸aise de Belgique, Euro View Services, HEC-Lie`ge and other local bodies, World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics, Union Europe´enne de Syste´mique and Washington Evolutionary Systems Society. The President and Vice-President were Professors Daniel M. Dubois and Robert Valle´e. At the opening session Prof. Daniel M. Dubois, President of the Centre for Hyperincursion and Anticipation in Ordered Systems (CHAOS), gave a lecture on “New developments in computing anticipatory systems”. Prof. Robert Valle´e (President of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics (WOSC), spoke about “Localization in quantum mechanics”. This session was followed by a reception at the City Hall. In the afternoon a plenary session was devoted to an invited lecture on “Non-linear dynamics, artificial cognition and galactic export” by Prof. Otto E. Rossler (Germany) to whom was presented the “CHAOS Award”. On 12 August, for the second plenary session, Dr Laurent Nottale (France), invited speaker, proposed “The theory of scale relativity” and received the “CASYS’03 Award”. For the last plenary session, keynote lecture, on 15 August, Prof. Lofti A. Zadeh (USA), invited speaker, spoke on “A perception-based approach to causality and anticipation”. The Conference was divided into ten symposia dealing with: anticipation, incursion, hyper incursion, soft computing, fuzzy systems, neural networks, mathematical modelling, chaos theory, physical systems, classical physics, quantum mechanics, relativity, computing systems, discrete models, simulation, information systems, cognitive systems, psychology, consciousness, biological systems, evolution, ecology, social and economic systems, engineering and industrial systems, universe. An Abstract Book (D.M. Dubois, ed.) was distributed at the beginning of the congress. Papers were published in Casys International Journal of Computing Anticipatory Systems (Vols. 14-16, Chaos, 2004) or in AIP Conference Proceedings (Vol. 718, American Institute of Physics, 2004). On 14 August, participants met at the official banquet in a traditional restaurant of the city. Despite the weather (extremely high temperature not seen in Europe since years) the conference was a real success thanks to the quality of the communications and of the organization. Robert Valle´e (2005)

Book reviews and reports

Book reviews

Book reviews Dark Hero of the Information Age: in Search of Norbert Wiener the Father of Cybernetics Flo Conway and Jim Siegelman Basic Books New York 2005 ISBN 0-7382-0368-8 423 pp, hardcover US$27.50 Keywords Cybernetics, Information systems Review DOI 10.1108/03684920610640344 This book by Flo Conway and Jim Siegelman, published by Basic Books (New York, 2005), has for subtitle “In Search of Norbert Wiener, the Father of Cybernetics”. In 423 pages, with 34 photos, an important bibliography and many notes, it gives a new biography of Wiener. We already had on this subject, the book of Steve Heims, “John von Neumann and Norbert Wiener: From Mathematics to the Technologies of Life and Death”, 1980, and that of Pesi R. Masani, “Norbert Wiener 1894-1964”, 1990, not forgetting two books by Wiener himself: “Ex-Prodigy: My Childhood and Youth”, 1953, and “I Am a Mathematician: The Later Life of a Prodigy”, 1956. This new one has the originality to insist not only on the psychological side of the difficulties encountered by Wiener, often consequences of the attitude of his father who decided to have an infant prodigy and of his mother who was very scornful to the Jewish people, but also on the unsuspected influence of his family life. On the other side, the scientific point of view is not forgotten and presented with accuracy and clarity. The first part has mainly to do with infancy, youth and early professional years of Wiener. Under his father’s autocratic guidance “he began reading at three, reciting in Greek and Latin at five and German soon after” Then at nine, he took up algebra, geometry, and physics. At ten, he wrote a philosophical paper on “The theory of ignorance”, a subject which, in my opinion, is the most important of epistemology since ignorance can be found everywhere while knowledge is rare, if even it exists. Another interesting trait is his early interest in Jules Verne and H.G. Wells science fiction novels. In 1909, at the age 14, “with his father’s blessing, Norbert registered at the Harvard Graduate School”. Here he felt a latent hostility, which engaged him to go to Cornell to continue his graduate work on philosophy. At last, in 1913, he got a PhD at Harvard. Here he did never succeed to obtain any academic appointment, instead, in 1919, he became instructor at MIT. There started his researches inspired by technical problems, grounded on such tools as Lebesgue integral, Gibbs statistics, Fourier transform, and giving rise to his study of Bownian movement and to “generalized harmonic analysis”. Then came war, a period of “disillusion and hurt, as he watched younger theorists and technicians pluck the fruits of his work”, years of anxiety about his wife’s german sympathies, but also time of the birth of the idea of cybernetics.

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In the next part we see the maturation of cybernetics under the auspices of the Josiah Macy Jr Foundation, the foundation of the “Teleological Society” also known as the “Cybernetics Group”, involving, among many others, Norbert Wiener, Warren S. McCulloch, Walter Pitts. This collaboration proved to be difficult. A negligence of Pitts impeded the recognition of an anteriority of Wiener over Claude Shannon. Complex relations between McCulloch and the Wiener’s family, involving scientific and non-scientific matters, ended in 1951 with a rupture with McCulloch. This affected Wiener very much and was at the origin of an angina attack. Despite these difficulties Wiener published his famous “Cybernetics or Control and Communication in the Animal and the Machine” (first edition, Hermann et Cie, Paris, 1948) and also, in 1949, “Extrapolation, Interpolation and Smoothing of Stationary Time Series, with Engineering Applications”, nicknamed “The Yellow Peril” when it was classified in 1942. “Cybernetics” knew a tremendous success all over the scientific world. The authors give the names of some groups devoted to cybernetics which were created at this time: “In 1950, French scientists formed the first scientific association for cybernetics, fittingly called the “Cercle d’Etudes Cyberne´tiques” – Circle of Cybernetical Studies”. I may add, since I was its Founder, that the honorary President of this Circle was Louis de Broglie. Among its members were Dominique Dubarle (quoted by the authors for his paper “Vers la machine a` gouverner – une nouvelle science: la cyberne´tique”, Le Monde, 1948), Benoıˆt Mandelbrot (known for the theory of fractals). The third and last part deals with Norbert Wiener as a scientist rebelling against “the subordination of those who ought to think to those who have the administrative power . . . ”, promoting “ a society based on human values other than buying or selling”. He presented these ideas in “The Human Use of Human beings: Cybernetics and Society” (1950). He was considered suspect in the days of McCarthy’s campaign. I have known him in these days, in the early 1950s, first in Paris, then, in the summer of 1954, in Cambridge and South Tamworth at Tamarack Cottage his country house. He worked at that time with Armand Siegel on statistics applied to quantum theory. As told to me he was considered not as “red” but “pink”. Anyway, after many difficulties, say the authors, FBI ceased to charge him for his opinions. Wiener had at that moment ten years to live. He wrote papers with Armand Siegel and also with Pesi R. Masani, two autobiographical books (quoted above) and “God&Golem, Inc.: A Comment on Certain Points Where Cybernetics Impinges on Religion” (published posthumously in 1964). Wiener died in Stockholm on 18 March 1964. Flo Conway and Jim Siegelman tell us that “God&Golem, Inc.” won the National Book Award for Science, Philosophy and Religion and that Wiener garnered an array of eponymous awards: the Norbert Wiener Prize in Applied Mathematics (American Mathematical Society and Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematics), the Norbert Wiener Medal for Cybernetics (American Society for Cybernetics), the Norbert Wiener Award for Social and Professional Responsibility (Computer Professionals for Social responsibility). We may add to the list the Norbert Wiener Memorial Gold Medal (World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics). This excellent and original book is of great interest not only for the neophytes, but also for those who had the privilege to know him or the opportunity to study his works. Robert Valle´e

International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics Edited by Charles Franc¸ois 2nd ed. K.G. Saur Munich 2004 Vol. 2 741 p. 29 figures ISBN 3-596-11630-6 Hardcover, e350 Keywords Cybernetics, Information systems Review DOI 10.1108/03684920610640353 This is the second edition of the International Encyclopedia of Systems and Cybernetics, edited by Charles Franc¸ois. The first edition had been published, also by K.G. Saur (Munich), in 1997. We reviewed it in Kybernetes (vol. 27, no. 9, pp. 1092-3). This new edition, is placed under the aegis of an academic committee: M. Bacewicz, H. Benking, S. Brier, G. Chroust, D. Dubois, J. van Gigch, R. Glanville, E. Gru¨n, M. Jackson, A. Judge, M. Kalaidjeva, G. Minati, M. Mulej, R. Rodriguez Ulloa, M. Schwaninger, G.A. Swanson, E. Schwarz, R. Trappl, S. Umpleby, R. Valle´e; J. Warfield. It is an extended one (2 volumes and 741 pages instead of 423). The appendix contains a bibliography of around 4,500 references (books and articles, not only in English but also in Franch, German . . .) completed by a list of institutions and journals devoted to systems or cybernetics with also an index of persons quoted. Among the institutions we observe three federations: International Federation for Systems Research, Union Europe´enne de Syste´mique, World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics and among the journals: CASYS, Cybernetics and Human Knowing, Cybernetics and Systems, International Journal of General Systems, Kybernetes, RES-Systemica, Systems Research and Behavioral Sciences. In the index, the author with the biggest number of references is Ilya Prigogine and the most quoted is Walter Ross Ashby. The second volume ends with a short biography of Charles Franc¸ois. Belgian citizen, born in 1922, retired from the Belgian Foreign Service in 1987, he lived in Central Africa from 1945 to 1960 and since 1963 he lives in Argentina. His first contact with cybernetics was, in 1952, with Wiener’s most famous book on the subject (1948). Later on he became member of the board of many societies or journals devoted to cybernetics or systems. On systemic topics he wrote numerous articles, a book in Franch and three in Spanish. In 1992 he published a Diccionario de Teora General de Sistemas y Ciberne´tica. He is now Honorary president of Grupo de Estudio de Sistemas Integrados which he founded in 1976. The introduction to the first edition is reproduced with the new one in which Charles Franc¸ois insists upon the changes that occurred since 1997, among them the progress of systems thinking in the Far East and Latin America. The problem of a precise definition of the expression “theory of systems” is still present but is not the main issue (we would even add that too much precision is not compatible with the possible evolution of this field of research). An increasing danger is pointed out: that of the

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proliferation of informations among which it is more and more difficult to choose the pertinent ones so close, in some cases, to “doctored pseudo-information”. The help of the United Nations, particularly of UNESCO, is acknowledged, especially for the publication of the “Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems” which is systemic minded. Among possible international projects a “general depository of all existing past and present material” concerning systems and cybernetics should be created. Adequate basic works should also be produced, we would say for the sake of “requisite variety”, in the most important languages, encouraging, this way, creative debates. The encyclopedia itself is a kind of dictionary of 3,807 words (instead of 3,000 in the first edition) from abduction to zoosemiotics, having to do directly or indirectly with systems or cybernetics. The definitions correspond generally to the meanings usual in cybernetics or systemics. A caveat concerning frequent misunderstandings about the true meaning of the expression “general system (or systems) theory” is recalled as well as the opposite choices of “patron saints” of cybernetics and/or systemics: Leibniz, according to Wiener, and Descartes, for McCulloch (to whom I would like to add Pascal). Many concepts are presented: ago-antagonism, andragology, arithmetic relator, autonomy (two meanings), autopoiesis, catastrophe theory, conversation theory, double bind, eigen-element, epistemo-praxiology, fuzzy set, homeostasis, metamodeling, order from noise, perspectivism, requisite variety, self-organization, specular interaction, synergetics, systemology, time of system . . . numerous quotations, from known authors, give the many aspects of each concept or theory, with critical views when needed, logical and mathematical formalisms being generally purposely avoided. This excellent book will be very useful to all readers specialized or not, that are interested in cybernetics or systems for one reason or another. Historians and philosophers will find the material they need for their works. For teachers, students and curious minds, here is more than is necessary for an initiation and even for a deeper understanding. Researchers in systems science, cybernetics, physics, mathematics as well as in economics, sociology, psychology, biology . . . will be attracted by the many perspectives opened by this complete presentation of the field. They will find a very efficient help with the very important bibliography and also informations about journals and societies. In short, we must be very thankful to Charles Franc¸ois for this very valuable work to which he devoted much of his life. Robert Valle´e

Analysis and Decision Making in Uncertain Systems Bubnicki, Zdzislaw Springer Verlag London 2004 371 p. 108 figures hardcover, £60, e129.95, $119 Keywords Cybernetics, Decision marking, Random variables Review DOI 10.1108/03684920610640362 This book, by Professor Academician Zdzislaw Bubnicki, Head of the Institute of Control and Systems Engineering of the Wroclaw University of Technology (Poland),

belongs to the Communications and control Engineering Series edited by Professor Manfred Thoma. It may be considered as an extension of the author’s monograph Uncertain Logics, Variables and Systems (Springer-Verlag, 2002). It is useful for graduate students, researchers and readers interested in control, information and decision in the case of uncertain systems that is to say systems whose description involves any form of uncertainty. The purpose of this book is to provide a unified description of analysis and decision problems in uncertain static or dynamical systems involving random or fuzzy variables and also “uncertain variables” (a concept proposed by the author) or more generally so-called soft variables. The uncertain systems considered are described either as functional (classical) models, or by relational knowledge representations or logical knowledge representations. In the last case relations are logical formulas concerning inputs, outputs and additional variables. It has been introduced by the author and its treatment called “logic-algebraic method”. Another original contribution, in the case of a system with relational knowledge representation, is a learning process obtained by a step to step knowledge validation and up-dating. Each time it is necessary, basic prerequisites are given (random and fuzzy variables for example) making the book self-contained. Moreover many examples are given in each of the 14. For a static functional system, the problem of analysis, is to find the output (result) corresponding to a given input (decision) and the problem of decision is to find the set of possible inputs (decisions) corresponding to a given output (desired results). In case of a static relational system, the analysis problem consists in finding the set of outputs corresponding to a given set of inputs and the decision problem consists in finding the set of possible inputs corresponding to a given set of acceptable outputs. The problems of analysis and decision are also defined and solved when the function or relation is affected by an unknown variable which may be random, fuzzy or “uncertain” (parametric uncertainty). In the case of a static system with logical knowledge representation, analysis and decision problems are also considered, even if the logical knowledge representation is random, fuzzy or “uncertain” (non-parametric uncertainty). The above methods may be applied to dynamical systems (functional, relational or with relational knowledge representations), even in the random, fuzzy or “uncertain” cases, for parametric and non-parametric uncertainty. Problems of optimization or stability of uncertain systems are also considered as well as the complex of operations, with uncertain execution times, and pattern recognition under uncertainty. The learning process concerns a static system with relational knowledge representation involving unknown parameters. At each step of the process one must check (validation) if what is observed is compatible with the knowledge representation admitted at the precedent step. If it is not the case, the current estimation of the parameters must be modified (up-dating). This book represents the synthesis of around 60 papers of the author generally devoted to the impact of the many kinds of uncertainties which can affect a system both at the level of the knowledge of its structure and the level of decision making. It is a very interesting and important contribution to what I call “esistemo-praxiology”. Robert Valle´e

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From Being to Doing: the Origins of the Biology of Cognition Humberto R. Maturana and Bernhard Poerksen Carl-Auer Heidelberg 2004 (German original 2002) ISBN 3-89670-448-6; ISBN 1-932462-15-5 (USA and Canada) 208 pp., 15 Illus. Paperback Euros 27.95/US$37.95/sFr 48.00 In USA and Canada, order on www.zeigtucker.com; in Europe www.carl-auer. com Keywords Cognition, Cybernetics This is in the same style as two earlier books having Bernhard Poerksen as joint author and motivator. (Understanding Systems: Conversations on Epistemology and Ethics, with Heinz von Foerster, and The Certainty of Uncertainty: Dialogues Introducing Constructivism, in which Poerksen reports interviews with a number of workers.) The present book stems from a series of conversations for which he visited Humberto Maturana in Chile for some weeks. The title indicates that Maturana’s theories stem from observations of the activity of living systems rather than merely their structure. As Heinz von Foerster says in a note on the back cover, the book is “rich in anecdote”. The anecdotes are of two kinds. Some of them give an interesting glimpse of Maturana’s life, from impecunious early years after his maternal grandfather was murdered in Bolivia and he and his mother spent two years in an Indian community in the Andes. His thinking was also influenced by long periods of illness, and near-death experience. At a later stage, when he was a university professor, he had no alternative to remaining in Chile during Pinochet’s dictatorship, and had exchanges with the dictator in which he showed exceptional integrity and courage. Other anecdotes, however, are used by Maturana to illustrate aspects of theory, and many of these I found unconvincing. Along with Heinz von Foerster he is a leading advocate of the current idea of “constructivism“, and originator of the mantra: “Anything said is said by an observer”. This is presumably true, though the use of the term “observer” rather than “speaker” acknowledges outside influence of some sort. Scepticism about the more extreme constructivist viewpoints has been expressed in an article in this journal (Kybernetes Vol. 33, No. 9/10, pp. 1392-5, 2004). What seems to me to be an unfortunate feature of various discussions in this area is that there is no distinction between the justifiable aim of being as objective as possible (for example, by using approved statistical methods to process results) and what might be termed “extreme objectivism”. Application of statistical methods certainly does not allow description of any ultimate reality, but nevertheless the methods are valuable, if only in guarding against the unavoidable “wishful thinking” of experimenters who would like to see their efforts rewarded by interesting results. It is undeniable that, as stressed by Maturana and von Foerster, conclusions and theories are constructions by the observer, though subject to somewhat greater constraints than they seem to acknowledge. In their arguments they use the term “responsibility” in a sense that is difficult to fathom, in saying that the observer should take responsibility for his views (and that the attempt to be objective is a shirking of

this). This, however, does not make sense without an indication of to whom, or to what, responsibility is owed, and such indication seems to be missing. At one point in the book, Maturana discusses responsibility, but in a social context in which the effects of actions on other people should be considered. Applied to theory construction, such an interpretation would imply that scientific findings should be edited according to eventual political and social outcomes, a conclusion that I am sure was not intended by Maturana or von Foerster. It is, of course, one thing to discuss these matters with reference to an assumed academic research environment, and quite another to think of them in the context of oppressive regimes in which there is extreme pressure to conform to an alien viewpoint. The thinking of several advocates of constructivism has been shaped by such experience, in which they displayed remarkable courage. However, respect for this does not eliminate fundamental problems. Maturana makes many reference to “love” and claims to have developed a biology of love. There seems to be no great difference between his use of the term and the more prosaic “altruism” discussed much earlier by geneticists Haldane and Hamilton, and in a more modern context by Axelrod (1984). There may be a shade of difference in the treatments in that Maturana considers human interaction with perhaps a rather deeper “meeting of minds” than visualised by the earlier workers, but otherwise there is no very obvious difference. Maturana is also the originator of the theory of autopoiesis, or self-production of living organisms. After much consideration he decided this is the essential characteristic that defines life. Essentially, circular processes are involved, whereby the membrane of a living cell produces protein molecules that participate in the cell’s metabolism and give rise to further molecules that maintain the membrane. The theory has been around for a considerable time with, for example, an early survey by Zeleny (1981) Maturana advocates an approach based on this to the study of living systems, apparently to the exclusion of others that put greater emphasis on communication. He therefore finds little common ground between himself and McCulloch and Pitts, and certainly very little with Minsky. This stance seems surprising for an experimental biologist who has examined visual pathways, and was involved with Lettvin in the famous study of frog vision. Disillusionment with such approaches seems to have stemmed from his failure to identify units in the visual tract of the pigeon responding to components of colour. This is an interesting finding, and would seem to have something in common with the discovery by Melzack and Wall (1982) that there are no specific pain fibres in the nervous system. A shift of attention to autopoiesis seems a strange reaction to such a finding. When first enunciated, the principle of autopoiesis was seized upon with enthusiasm by sociologists and others including Stafford Beer. It is interesting to learn from the new book that Maturana is sceptical of the applications that go outside biology. The book includes useful discussions of education and psychotherapy, but invoking the idea of love rather than of autopoiesis. Maturana now holds an agreeable academic position in Chile, and is not anxious to compete and defend his views widely, as he might once have been. In the book the views are expressed rather dogmatically, though this is understandable and perhaps permissible in the interview situation with himself as focus. Bernhard Poerksen has once more done an admirable job in asking appropriate questions and compiling the account.

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The book is extremely valuable in reviewing the contributions of Maturana and in indicating his current thinking. There are aspects that do not entirely make sense to me, though some of them might be resolved elsewhere in the extensive literature associated with constructivism and autopoiesis. Alex M. Andrew

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References Axelrod, R. (1984), Evolution of Cooperation, Basic Books, New York, NY. Melzack, R. and Wall, P. (1982), The Challenge of Pain, Penguin Books, Harmondsworth. Zeleny, M. (Ed.) (1981), Autopoiesis: A Theory of Living Organization, North-Holland, New York, NY.

Book reports Parallel Programming: Techniques and Applications Using Networked Workstations and Parallel Computers Barry Wilkinson and Michael Alien Prentice-Hall PTR 2005 ISBN 0-13-140563-2 2nd ed. p. 496 $83.00 This is the second edition of a text that is supported by the National Science Foundation. It is a student class book that in consequence, is well-tried and tested. It has also been revised; as one would expect, to include updated material such as cluster programming, now more easily available on current budget computer systems. Cyberneticians and systemist need not worry that it is a student text. They can, obviously use it in the classroom but many may like to use it to improve their own familiarity with parallel programs that can be executed on networked work-stations and indeed, to learn more about the available parallel software tools. We are told that it is non-theoretical and gives a “practical” approach to techniques that can be used to develop and test parallel programs.

Alfred Tarski: Life and Logic Anita Burdman Feferman and Solomon Feferman Cambridge University Press 2004 ISBN 0-521-80240-7 p. 425 (Hardback) £23.00 Alfred Tarski was born in Warsaw, Poland in 1901, and made distinguished contributions to logic. This book is what has been described as a “super biography”

of him. He apparently described himself as “the greatest living sane logician”, a claim, we are told directed at Kurt Go¨del. Cyberneticians will be interested in the fact that he made international contacts, and that a visit to Vienna in 1930 brought him into contact with the Vienna Circle and with Kurt Go¨del. This biography looks at both the man and his mathematical achievements. It is written by two authors who are known in their respected fields. Solomon Feferman as a distinguished logician and Anita Burdman Feferman as a writer and well-known biographer. The combination, we are informed, has produced a book that has been carefully and rigorously researched. One reviewer writes: . . . [that the book] is a masterpiece of detail and clarity. Biographical sections are interlaced with “Interludes” which cogently explain his considerable output and its significance.

It has been reviewed as a “brilliant achievement, a delight to read” and cheap at the price!

Open Process Frameworks — Patterns for the Adaptive e-Enterprise David A. Marca Wiley-IEEE Computer Society Press 2005 (September) ISBN 0-471-73611-2 p. 184 (Paper) $59.95 Books on e-business are now produced in numbers and it is difficult to choose those that really contribute to business. The publishers believe this text “is a cutting-edge” contribution to e-business and its underpinnings. It does take the view that any discussion of e-business and e-commerce should be held from the standpoint of business adaptability and durability. It attempts to do this in one book which is indeed a challenge, particularly as they claim to cover the complex relationships among e-business, e-process and e-commerce. Business and management cyberneticians and systemsists with interests in the e-enterprise scenario will want to know whether the authors approach will improve their interpretation of what is being developed under the name of e-business.

From P2P to Web Services and Grids — Peers in a Client/server World Ian J. Taylor Springer Heidelberg 2005 ISBN 1-85233-869-5 p. 275 (Softcover) $64.95 Published in the Series: Computer Communications and Networks, we are told that it provides a “comprehensive overview” of emerging distributed-systems technologies.

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In systems and cybernetics we cannot ignore developments in this area and it aims to cover a wide range of middleware and application-based technologies such as: OGSA: WSRF: SOAP: WSDL: NAPSTER and GNUTELLA. Although we may use some of these we are given the opportunity of updating and, indeed, being introduced to new ones. Emphasis is given to the architecture being employed and the security model chosen. The author aims to analyse each technology described with particular reference to the degree of centralisation or, indeed, decentralisation they include. May be too specialised for some, but of interest to readers who wish to keep up with new developments and to update their own systems.

Handbook of Learning and Approximate Dynamic Programming Jennie Si, Andrew G. Barto, Warren Buckler Powell and Don Wunsch Wiley Indianapolis 2004 ISBN 0-471-66054-X p. 672 (Cloth) $99.95 This large text was publish in late 2004 and is a mammoth work in the field. The four authors discuss the future directions of learning and approximate dynamic programming (ADP). It looks at the main problems in this field and discusses the opportunities that lie ahead. Whether this is the best moment to assess where ADP has been and what it will become is not easy to assess. The authors believe this is a turning point at which they say, ADP becomes “a mainstream and high-impact research area”. There is the belief that there is much of value to be gained by research communities, with the specialised fields of control and decision theory being the most likely to benefit. Anyone working in this area should certainly look at this discussion, bearing in mind, of course, that it is designed to be a handbook.

Optimisation Globale: The´orie Des Courbes a-denses Yves Cherruault and Caspar Mora Economica Paris, France 2005 ISBN 2-7178-5065-1 p. 164 (Softcover) e24 Both the authors of this book are well-known researchers and are leaders in the field. They have both published numerous papers on this subject in Kybernetes. In addition they featured in the special double issue of this journal that considered “Biocybernetics: methodology and applications” (Kybernetes 34, 7/8, 2005). Professor Cherruault is the Director of the MEDIMAT Laboratory of the University Pierre and Marie Curie (Paris VI), whilst Mora is Professor and the Director of the Department of Mathematical Analysis, at the University of Alicanti, Spain.

This book is written in French and consists of an introduction, nine chapters and a short conclusion. The chapters are: . Pourquoi 1’optimisation globale (p. 5). . Les me´thodes classiques (p. 9). . La me´thode Alienor et ses principaux de´veloppements (p. 23). . Caracte´risation et ge´ne´ration des courbes a-denses (p. 11). . Courbes a-denses et optimisation globale (p. 14). . Courbes a-denses de´finies par des e´quations fonctionnelles (p. 5). . Autres ide´es pour 1’optimisation globale (p. 9). . Application a` lidentification et au controˆle optimal de syste´mes Association avec la me´thode de´compositionnelle (p. 18). . Commentaires sur la litte´rature concernant 1’optimisation globale et les courbes a-denses Proble´mes ouverts (p. 16). A bibliography of 59 citations is also included. This text, like previously published contributions to this field by these two researchers, presents new results in the study of global optimisation. It is both readable and authoritative, the result of many decades of endeavour in the field. A more detailed review will be published in this journal in a future issue. C.J.H. Mann Book reviews and reports editor

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Announcements March 2006 ISSSE 2006 International Symposium on Secure Software Eng., Washington, DC, USA, 13-15 March Contact: See web site: www.jmu.edu/iiia/issse/ PERCOM 2006 – 4th International Conference on Pervase Computing and Communications, Pisa, Italy, 13-17 March Contact: http://cnd.iit.cnr.it/percom2006/ Asia CCS’06 ACM Symposium on Information and Communications Security 2006, Taipei, Taiwan, 21-23 March Contact: Der-Tsai Lee. Tel: 886-2-27883799; E-mail: [email protected] IEEE VR 2006-Virtual Reality Conference, Alexandria, VA, USA, 25-29 March Contact: See web site: www.vr2006.org/cfp.htm#paper SSIAI 2006 – Symposium on Image Analysis & Interpretation, Denver, CO, USA, 26-28 March Contact: P. Misna. E-mail: [email protected] Fourth Annual IEEE Computer Society/ACM International Symposium on Code Generation and Optimisation – CGO-4, New York, NY, USA, 26-29 March Contact: See web site: www.cgo.org ETRA ’06 Eye Tracking Research and Applications 2006, San Diego, CA, USA, 27-29 March Contact: Andrew Duchowski. Tel: 1-864-656-7677; E-mail: [email protected] ECBS 2006 13th Annual International Conference and Workshop on the Eng. of Computer-based Systems, Potsdam, Germany, 27-30 March April 2006 CFP ’06 ACM’s 16th Conference on Computers, Freedom and Privacy, Washington, DC, USA, 1-3 April Contact: Frank Torres. Tel: 202-263-5959; E-mail: [email protected] ICDE 2006 22nd International Conference on Data Engineering, Atlanta, GA, USA, 3-7 April Contact: http://icde06.cc.gatech.edu/

Kybernetes Vol. 35 No. 1/2, 2006 pp. 250-252 q Emerald Group Publishing Limited 0368-492X

5th International Conference on Mathematical Education for Engineers – Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (IMA), Loughborough, UK, 11-13 April Contact: Lucy Nye, IMA, Catherine Richards House, 16 Nelson Str., Southend-on-Sea, Essex SS1 1EF. Tel: 01702 356104; E-mail: [email protected]; web site: www. ima.org.uk

EUROSYS 2006 Conference, Leuven, Belgium, 18-21 April Contact: Yolande Berbers. Tel: 32-16-32-7636; E-mail: [email protected]

Announcements

IPSN ’06 5th International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor networks, Nashville, TN, USA, 19-21 April Contact: John Stankovic. Tel: 434-982-2275; E-mail: [email protected]

251 CSEET 2006 19th Conference on Software Engineering, Education and Training, Oaha, Hawaii, 20-26 April Contact: Daniel Port. E-mail: [email protected] CHI ’06 Conference on Human Factors in Computer Systems, Montreal, Que´bec, Canada, 22-28 April Contact: Dennis Wixon. Tel: þ 1-425-705-2813; E-mail: [email protected] Systems and Software Week 2006 SEW 30th NASA/IEEE Software Engineering Workshop, Columbia, MD (Washington DC metro), 24-28 April Contact: http://sel.gsfc.nasa.gov/sew-30 EASe 2006 3rd IEEE Workshop on Engineering of Autonomic Systems (co-related with ECBS-Potsdam, Germany) Contact: See web site: www.ulster.ac.uk/ease DSSNS 2006 2nd Workshop on Dependability and Security in Sensor Networks and Systems (IEEE sponsored) Contact: See web site: www.dssns.org IPDPS 2006 – 20th International Parallel & Distributed Processing Symposium, Rhodes Island, Greece, 26-29 April Contact: See web site: www.ipdps.org May 2006 CF ’06 Computing Frontiers Conference 2006, Ischia, Italy, 3-5 May Contact: Monica Alderight. Tel: 39-02-23699-332; E-mail: [email protected] MDM 2006 7th International Conference on Mobile Data Management, Nara, Japan, 9-12 May Contact: See web site: www.mdm2006.kddilabs.jp/ ISMVL 2006 36th International Symposium on Multiple-valued Logic, Singapore, 17-20 May Contact: See web site: www.ntu.edu.sg/home/efalkowski/ismvl/ 28th International Conference on Software Engineering – ICSE 2006, Shanghai, China, 20-28 May Contact: See web site: www.icse-conference.org/2006/

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STOC ’06 Symposium on Theory of Computing Conference 2006, Seattle, WA, USA, 21-23 May Contact: Paul Beame. Tel: þ 1 206-543-5114; E-mail: [email protected] WWW 2006 – 15th International World Wide Web Conference, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 22-26 May Contact: See web site: www2006.org June 2006 ISCA 2006 33rd Annual Symposium on Computer Architecture, Boston, MA, USA, 17-21 June Contact: See web site: www.ece.neu.edu/conf/isca2006/ DSN 2006 International Conference on Dependable Systems & Networks, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 25-29 June Contact: See web site: www.dsn2006.org/ DIS ’06 Designing Interactive Systems 2006, University Park, PA, USA, 26-28 June Contact: John M. Carroll. Tel: 814-863-2476; E-mail: [email protected] ISCC 2006 – the 11th Symposium on Computers and Communications, Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy, 26-28 June Contact: See web site: www.comsoc.org/iscc/2006

Special announcements 28th International Conference on Software Engineering 20-28 May 2006 www.icse-conferences.org/2006/ Shanghai 2006 ICSE ’06 ICSE 2006 will be held in Shanghai, China, a main epicenter of the explosive growth of the software industry in China during these early years of the twenty-first century. ICSE 2006 will be a signal event in the recognition of this growth, and in the bringing of the Chinese software engineering community into the ICSE mainstream. The web site will detail traveling arrangements as well as the many ICSE activities to be held in Shanghai, a city that blends the dazzlingly ultramodern and the charmingly traditional. A visa is needed for travel-please visit the web site for more information and other conference details. Travel costs less than you think, so join us in Shanghai in May 2006 for an experience that will combine outstanding technical events with a visit to a city and country that will be truly unforgettable!

The Eleventh IEEE Symposium on Computers and Communications

ISCC 2006 June 26-29, 2006 Cagliari, Sardinia, Italy Sponsored by IEEE Communications Society and IEEE Computer Society: . access networks; . agents, mobile agents, and knowledge base technologies; . bioinformatics; . control and optimization of communication systems; . congestion control; . data mining and database applications; . distributed systems architecture and management; . digital satellite communications; . e-commerce and e-services; . economic and regulatory issues in telecommunications; . network reliability and quality of service; . optical networking overlay and programmable networks; . peer-to-peer computing; . real time communication services (VoIP, games, video); . routing and multicast; . fault-tolerant computing and error recovery; . grid and cluster computing;

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handoff and mobility; high performance networking and protocols; internet services and applications; IPv6; management of telecommunications services; mobile ad-hoc and sensor networks; mobile multimedia communications; modeling and simulation; MPLS, GMPLS; network design, optimization and management; security and cryptography; signal processing in communications and networking; standards; wireless, cellular, and mobile communications; and web services and XML.

www.comsoc.org/iscc/2006.

ICDCS 2006

The 26th International Conference on Distributed Computing Systems Lisbon, Portugal July 4-7, 2006 http://icdcs2006.di.fc.ul.pt www.computer.org Sponsored by The IEEE Computer Society Technical Committee on Distributed Processing

Scope Sponsored by: China Computer Federation The conference provides a forum for engineers and scientists in academia, industry and government to present their latest research findings in any aspects of distributed and parallel computing. Topics of particular interest include, but are not limited to: . algorithms and theory; . autonomic computing; . data management; . fault-tolerance and dependability; . internet computing and applications; . network protocols; . operating systems and middleware; . parallel, cluster and GRID computing; . peer-to-peer;

security; sensor networks and ubiquitous computing; and wireless and mobile computing.

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Special announcements

For further information, please contact: [email protected]

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The Second International Workshop on Analysis and Numerical Approximation of Singular Problems September 6-8, 2006 Karlovassi, Samos, Greece The Second International Workshop on Analysis and Numerical Approximation of Singular Problems will be held at the Aegean University in Karlovassi, Samos, Greece, jointly with the University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK, and the Instituto Superior Tcnico (CEMAT) Lisbon, Portugal Please address your inquiries to: [email protected] or/ [email protected]

35th Annual Conference – 2006 International Conference on Parallel Processing (ICPP 2006) www.cse.ohio-state.edu/ icpp2006 Lisbon, Portugal Columbus, Ohio, USA August 14-18, 2006 Sponsored by The International Association for Computers and Communications (IACC) In cooperation with The Ohio State University, USA

35th Anniversary The International Conference on Parallel Processing is celebrating its 35th year. To commemorate this event, a DVD will be issued containing all the proceedings of this and the previous 34 conferences.

Scope The conference provides a forum for engineers and scientists in academia, industry and government to present their latest research findings in any aspects of parallel and distributed computing. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to: . architecture; . cluster computing; . compilers and languages;

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network services; network-based/grid computing; O.S. & resource management; parallel algorithms and applications; peer-to-peer technology; tools and performance analysis; wireless and mobile computing; and systems support for parallel and distributed applications.

For further information; please contact: D.K. Panda, The Ohio State University, [email protected]; Wu-chi Feng, Portland State University, wuchi@ cs.pdx.edu

Mathematical Education of Engineers V This conference will take place from April 11 to 13, 2006 at the University of Loughborough. This conference aims to reflect the progress and experiences of initiatives within the teaching of mathematics to engineers in recent years, to debate areas of known concern and to learn together from current best practice. A further key aim is to examine collectively as mathematicians, academic engineers and engineers in industry the engineering mathematics provision for the future in the context of ever-increasing demands of competence, effectiveness, quality and relevance. The programme will include invited speakers, contributed papers (or posters), workshop sessions, demonstration sessions and a forum. The proceedings of this conference will be published by the IMA.

Registering an interest The programme will include invited speakers, contributed papers (or posters), workshop sessions and a forum. Informal enquiries can be made by e-mail to [email protected] or to [email protected]. If you are interested in this conference please register your interest by contacting Lucy Nye, Conference Office, IMA, (E-mail: [email protected]) indicating whether you would like to present a paper or display a poster, of contribute to a workshop session.