Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area: Towards a Partnership for Sustainable Management of Resources and the Prevention of Catastrophes - Volume ... Series - Human and Societal Dynamics)

SHARING KNOWLEDGE ACROSS THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA

NATO Security through Science Series This Series presents the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO Programme for Security through Science (STS). Meetings supported by the NATO STS Programme are in security-related priority areas of Defence Against Terrorism or Countering Other Threats to Security. The types of meeting supported are generally “Advanced Study Institutes” and “Advanced Research Workshops”. The NATO STS Series collects together the results of these meetings. The meetings are co-organized by scientists from NATO countries and scientists from NATO’s “Partner” or “Mediterranean Dialogue” countries. The observations and recommendations made at the meetings, as well as the contents of the volumes in the Series, reflect those of participants and contributors only; they should not necessarily be regarded as reflecting NATO views or policy. Advanced Study Institutes (ASI) are high-level tutorial courses to convey the latest developments in a subject to an advanced-level audience. Advanced Research Workshops (ARW) are expert meetings where an intense but informal exchange of views at the frontiers of a subject aims at identifying directions for future action. Following a transformation of the programme in 2004 the Series has been re-named and reorganised. Recent volumes on topics not related to security, which result from meetings supported under the programme earlier, may be found in the NATO Science Series. The Series is published by IOS Press, Amsterdam, and Springer Science and Business Media, Dordrecht, in conjunction with the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. Sub-Series A. B. C. D. E.

Chemistry and Biology Physics and Biophysics Environmental Security Information and Communication Security Human and Societal Dynamics

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Sub-Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics – Vol. 12

ISSN: 1574-5597

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area

Towards a Partnership for Sustainable Management of Resources and the Prevention of Catastrophes

Edited by

Paul Faugeras

AFAS, Paris, France

Abdeslam Hoummada

University Hassan II Aïn Chock, Morocco

and

Robert Klapisch AFAS, Paris, France

Amsterdam • Berlin • Oxford • Tokyo • Washington, DC Published in cooperation with NATO Public Diplomacy Division

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area for Prevention of Catastrophes and Sustainable Management of Water and Energy Casablanca, Morocco 5–7 September 2005 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. ISBN 1-58603-680-7 Library of Congress Control Number: 2006934006 Publisher IOS Press Nieuwe Hemweg 6B 1013 BG Amsterdam Netherlands fax: +31 20 687 0019 e-mail: [email protected] Distributor in the UK and Ireland Gazelle Books Services Ltd. White Cross Mills Hightown Lancaster LA1 4XS United Kingdom fax: +44 1524 63232 e-mail: [email protected]

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Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

v

Foreword Paul FAUGERAS Editor, AFAS 1, Paris This volume gives the proceedings of the third conference of the series “Sharing knowledge across the Mediterranean”, which was organized jointly by the AFAS, the French association for the advancement of sciences, and the University Hassan II of Casablanca and which was held in this city on September, 5th to 7th 2005. This conference was sponsored by a dozen of organizations, among which NATO, which decided to make it as an Advanced Scientific Workshop. In addition to the opening session, nine different sessions were organized, with the following topics: • • • • • • • •

Session 1: Extension of the European space for research to the Mediterranean zone, Session 2: New energies for development, Session 3: Participation of scientist from the South to international projects: SESAME, Session 5: From food security to food safety in the Euro Mediterranean space, Session 6: Fighting the numerical divide, Session 7: Participation of scientist from the South to international projects: CERN, Session 8: Desalination of sea water and recycling of waste water, Session 9: Natural risks in the Mediterranean.

Session 4 dealt with possible future topics and is not reported here, as it was mainly in the form of an open discussion. Authors were requested to write down their own contribution. Some have kindly accepted to do it and they are gratefully acknowledged. The contributions written in English are published as such; those written in French were subsequently translated in English. The whole conference was recorded on video tapes. For financial and time reasons, it was not possible to transcribe all the exposés for which we didn’t receive a written contribution. Somewhat arbitrarily, we restricted ourselves to guest speakers and to the oral exposés, which were not touched in the previous conferences. Transcription was done in the original language of the speaker and was followed by some filtering to eliminate spoken jargon. Translation into English was subsequently made whenever needed. A footnote at the title of each article indicates the nature of the following document: original English, original French, translated, transcription from oral in English, transcription from oral in French and translation in English.

1

AFAS, CNRS, 1 place Aristide Briand, 92195 Meudon Cedex, France.

vi

Apologies are due to those whose contribution couldn’t be transcribed and reported here. Nevertheless, the author’s name, affiliation and title of each contribution is mentioned in due place. However, interested readers can ask the editor to get a copy on a CD-ROM of the slides of all presentations. The publication of these proceedings has been made possible thanks to a specific financial support of some of our sponsors, namely NATO, the Canon Foundation and CIEHAM. These specific contributions for the English edition are gratefully acknowledged. Warm thanks are finally due to Ms Marie-Laure Blanchet, editorial assistant of AFAS, who took care of the proceedings layout and of shaping the contributions, as well as the proof reading of some of the texts.

vii

Conference Chairman

Prof. Robert Klapisch, Honorary President of AFAS, Paris Conference Co-Chairman, Chairman of the Local Organizing Committee Prof. Abdelasam Hoummada, University Hassan II Aïn Chock, Marocco Scientific Programme Committee Prof. R. Klapisch, Paris Prof. A. Hoummada, Casablanca Prof. J.-P. Connerade, London Prof. J. A. Rubio, Madrid Prof. H. Schopper, Geneva Prof. G. Wormser, Orsay Prof. B. Hervieu, Paris Dr. B. Bachelier, Paris Dr. M. Balaban, L’Aquila, Italie Prof. A. Elmidaoui, Kenitra Prof. J. Ellis, Geneva Prof. Y. Lancelot, Marseille Workshop Proceedings

Dr. P. Faugeras, AFAS Paris

ix

Contents Foreword Paul Faugeras Committee

v vii

Opening Session Opening Remarks Robert Klapisch

The Actions of France and the French-Moroccan Partnership Pierre Appriou Welcome Address Mohamed Berkaoui Welcome Address Pascal Colombani

3 7 11 14

Session 1. Extension of the European Research Area to the Mediterranean ICTP as a Model for Excellence for Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Training in the South Katepalli R. Sreenivasan

19

Training and Career Development of Researchers: The EU Context Georges Bingen

29

Scientific Studies and Careers for Women in Tunisia Oum Kalthoum Ben Hassine

39

Evaluation, Criteria for Excellence Jean-Pierre Bourguignon

Women in Science and Their Role to Advance the Societies from the South Nora Berrah

31

43

Session 2. Energy for Development Novel Energies for the Future Carlo Rubbia

Energy Research at CIEMAT and the Almeria Solar Platform Project Juan-Antonio Rubio The Future of Wind Energy in Morocco D. Zejli, R. Benchrifa and A. Bennouna

49 65 70

x

EUROGIA: The Energy Cluster to Provide Green Solutions to Satisfy an Ever-Growing Demand for Energy Gabriel Marquette Sustainable Energy Scenarios in the Mediterranean: Current Situation and Prospects Dominique Gentile and Samir Allal

76 81

Session 3. Participation in International Projects: SESAME SESAME – Synchrotron Light for Experimental Science and Applications for the Middle East Herwig Schopper SESAME Science Programme – An Example of Knowledge Transfer Samar Hasnain The Synchrotron and the Laser: Are They Friends or Foes? Jean-Patrick Connerade

Other Contributions

89 93 100 115

Session 5. From Food Security to Food Safety, Constructing a Euromediterranean Area Demographic Perspectives, Changes in the Agricultural and Food Situation in the Mediterranean Region: Questions for Research Vincent Dollé

119

The Mediterranean, a Free-Trade Zone from 2010: What Consequences Will This Have for Agriculture, Food and Agronomic Research? Najib Akesbi

131

Roundtable Discussion

148

Agriculture: The Next EuroMed Frontier? Moncef Cheikh-Rouhou

142

Session 6. Fighting the Digital Divide E-Science and the Grid Ken Peach Other Contributions

161 175

Session 7. Water Desalination and Reuse Synergies Between Power Generation and Desalination: Economics and Social Advantages Corrado Sommariva Desalination and Wastewater Reuse Resources to Be Considered Azzeddine Elmidaoui

179 185

xi

Management and Distributed Monitoring of Water Resources Elpida Tzafestas, Gerasimos Rigatos and Constantinos Garagunis Other Contributions

188 190

Session 8. Participation of Southern Countries in International Programmes: CERN The Participation of Southern Countries in International Programmes: CERN Is not an Ivory Tunnel John Ellis

193

Moroccan Participation in ATLAS Driss Benchekroun

200

A Plea for Experimental Particle Physics in Algeria Farès Djama

210

Developing Collaboration with CERN Mohamed M. Sherif

Other Contributions

207

215

Session 9. Natural Risks in the Mediterranean Seismic Risk in the Mediterranean Regions Paul Tapponnier

219

Seismic Instrumentation Jean Virieux

250

Seismic Early Warning in Campania Paolo Gasparini

263

Volcanic Risk Around the Mediterranean Franco Barberi

235

Discussion

259

Other Contributions

267

Conclusions of the Meeting Conclusions of the Meeting Robert Klapisch

271

Recommendations

276

Author Index

279

Opening Session

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Opening Remarks Mr. Robert KLAPISCH2 Honorary President of AFAS, Paris Emeritus Research Director at CNRS

Thank you for attending the third edition of our conference “Sharing Knowledge across the Mediterranean.” I’m going to speak in French but present transparencies in English. I’d like to let you know that we also have interpreters and simultaneous translations and you can choose the language of your choice for this conference. I’d like to offer first of all the temporary apologies of Pascal Colombani, president of AFAS, who’s been delayed; his plane was late taking off and he will speak to you just as soon as he arrives in the course of the session. I should also let you know that the French minister François Goulard, who gave us his patronage and his considerable financial support, is not able to attend today, because, as often happens with ministers, he had obligations that were not foreseen at the time he agreed to come. First of all, I would like to address my warmest greetings to those of you who attended the conference in Marseille and the one at CERN [the European Organization for Nuclear Research]. For those of you who were at CERN last year, you will remember that a certain number of wishes were expressed during the course of the meeting. We took note of them, and since the end of the conference in Geneva, AFAS and IN2P3, the National Institute for Nuclear and Particle Physics of the French CNRS [National Center for Scientific Research], have worked out a preliminary program and begun finding different and varied sources of funding. Since December 2004 we’ve had an offer from our Moroccan colleagues to host this conference, and that’s why we’re here now. In February we asked the then minister for research, Mr. François d’Aubert, for his patronage and financial support, which were granted to us in the month of April. And I have to say that this conference would not have been possible without the support of the Moroccan community and of President Berkaoui, who’s going to come in a moment. More details will follow, but I don’t want to miss the opportunity to express all the pleasure I had in working intensively during these past weeks with Abdeslam Hoummada, whom you’ve all seen here present and very busy. I would like now in the rest of my talk to pay homage to the French and international contributors, starting with AFAS and IN2P3, but I have a total of eleven different contributors. So, what is AFAS? It’s the French Association for the Advancement of Science, which was founded in 1872, by Claude Bernard, and which is represented here by Pascal Colombani, its president, who’s going to arrive shortly; by Arlette Franceschetti, 2

Transcription from oral in French and translation.’

4

R. Klapisch / Opening Remarks

secretary-general, who helped us a great deal, some of us with plane tickets; by Paul Faugeras, editor of the journal Sciences, who published the reports from the Geneva meeting; and finally by myself, as honorary president and the predecessor of Pascal Colombani. IN2P3 is the National Institute for Nuclear and Particle Physics of the CNRS. It is represented here by Eliane Perret, who’s in charge of international relations, and by Guy Wormser, director of the Linear Accelerator Laboratory in Orsay, since last week, which I salute, and who’s going to organize the session on the fight against the digital divide which will take place tomorrow. In addition, Michel Spiro, the director of IN2P3, gave this project all his support—to the point of lending us his two private secretaries, who, you will recall, handled your registration in July. He must also offer his apologies for his absence, for it’s the season when the institutes prepare their budgets, and that prevented him from coming. I would now like to present to you the list of organizations and institutes who agreed to support our project and who are represented here. The list is long and I would like to thank them collectively for their support. I’d like to add that compared to last year, the growing number of institutions that supported us must be taken as a sign that our initiative has been very well received and I think that’s very encouraging for the future. I’m therefore just going to say a few words about each institution, in the order, if I can put it this way, in which they came on the scene; you can see, by the way, all the logos of the various institutes on the banner decorating the platform. I’ll start with the French embassy in Morocco, which is represented by Mr. Pierre Appriou, scientific advisor, who’s going to speak to us in a few minutes about the bilateral programs between France and Morocco. I would like to extend to him my particular thanks, because his support allowed a large number of distinguished people, present here, to be able to make the trip to Casablanca. Next is the Institute of Trieste, the ICTP—International Centre for Theoretical Physics, founded by Abdus Salam, and which is a reference point for doctoral and postdoctoral studies in the Third World. It is represented here by its director, Professor Katepalli R. Sreenivasan, whom I thank warmly for having come despite, evidently, a very full schedule. This afternoon at the beginning of the session he will give an altogether extraordinary description of this institution. CIEMAT is the Spanish Research Center for Energy, the Environment, and New Technology. It is represented here by its general director, Juan Antonio Rubio, who organized the session on energy and who’s going to present it this afternoon at the second session. INSTN is the National Institute for Nuclear Sciences and Techniques, which is the university branch of the French Atomic Energy Commission. It is represented by Professor Dominique Gentile, who will present his talk this afternoon. There will be a slight change in the title, but that will be clarified at the beginning of the session by Professor Rubio. CIHEAM is the International Center for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies. It is an intergovernmental association of 12 countries, one of which by the way is Morocco, and it is represented today by Mr. Vincent Dollé, who is the director of the Montpellier center. Mr. Bertrand Hervieu, whom some of you heard in Marseilles when he was president of the Institute for Agronomic Research, is now the secretary-general of CIHEAM, and I have to say that he immediately welcomed our initiative. He provided us with substantial financial support, but unfortunately he also had an institutional duty,

R. Klapisch / Opening Remarks

5

for on this very day, one of the four centers of CIHEAM is opening a conference in Bari which he must attend as secretary-general. I thank also Mr. Bernard Bachelier, who is the former director of CIHEAM in Grenoble and who is beginning a new project in launching the Foundation for Agriculture and Rurality in the World, of which the acronym, FARM, is a bilingual wink. Mr. Bachelier accepted to take up the work of Mr. Hervieu for the session on agriculture and food security, which is important, for, at bottom, we are all concerned—because we all eat. I learned on this occasion that “food security” means that people don’t die of hunger while “food safety” means that people don’t die from being poisoned. Both are obviously important. Next, the Research Institute for Development [IRD] is an institute that is represented today by Mr. Henri Guillaume, who’s here. Mr. Henri Guillaume is the head of the Rabat office of the IRD in Morocco. I should say that historically the IRD was above all concerned with sub-Saharan Africa. During the Marseilles conference, Mr. Girard, who was and still is president of the IRD, met the Moroccan minister, and that is how the IRD office in Morocco came to be. So you see that there are already some concrete results from this Marseille initiative, which we took in 2002, in association with Yves Lancelot, of Brittany and Marseille, who is also present. Let’s move on now to the Canon Foundation for Scientific Research. This foundation spontaneously sent an observer to Geneva, who was entirely seduced, particularly by the SESAME project. I’d thus like to thank Dr. Tom Eagleton, who is the scientific coordinator, for having confirmed his support for us and for being here today. CERN, which everyone is familiar with, welcomed us last year on the occasion of its 50th anniversary. The general director, Robert Aymar, kindly agreed to maintain a certain support this year, although that is not CERN’s tradition—they usually support only those conferences that take place at CERN. We have thus an eminent representative of CERN here, namely John Ellis, who will lead, like last year, the session on the extension of the program to nonmember states, particularly the countries of the south. Professor Herwig Schopper, who is a former general director of CERN and the promoter of the SESAME project, will preside over a session on this project Tuesday morning. SESAME is a project sponsored by UNESCO for the Mediterranean region and the Middle East, and this project is as we speak under construction in Amman. It will be an international laboratory, a little like a mini-CERN: its statutes are modeled on those of CERN. Professor Carlo Rubbia, Nobel Prize in Physics 1984, former director general of CERN also, will present us this afternoon with his vision of the new energies for the 21st century. And I must say personally that, having formerly been with CERN myself, we are very honored by this strong participation of CERN, which proves that CERN is not an ivory tower (one could say moreover an ivory tunnel), but is very much involved in the problems today’s world is facing. Finally, for it comes last on the schedule, I am particularly happy to thank the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO or OTAN (depending on if you’re Anglophone or Francophone), which, in addition to substantial financial support, gave us a special status: in NATO language, this colloquium is an Advanced Research Workshop, which is to say that with this status we are not supposed to be very numerous, and we should present recommendations in addition to reports.

6

R. Klapisch / Opening Remarks

These reports will first be published in English by a publishing house called IOS Press, and we can be assured there will be a wide distribution through all NATO’s distribution organs. We’re already on NATO’s Website. In view of the fact that some Maghreb scientists, or young Maghreb scientists, are not very familiar with English, we have arranged to also publish a French edition, which will appear in the AFAS journal Sciences. Paul Faugeras, who also used to work at CERN, has taken charge of the publication of the reports and he asks you earnestly to give him an electronic copy of your presentations and if possible also a hard copy. In addition to helping him with his task, you will be sure that in doing so you can give your thoughts all the nuances you intended. So it’s in your interest. I’ll finish up by saying that NATO, as I already told you, encourages us to offer recommendations, and this is very important. I think that the recommendations, which must be brief—anything longer than a page won’t be read—and concrete, could have a considerable effect. As you have seen, we have some working rooms and I believe that things like a fiber-optic network as well as the problems of women scientists or agriculture, or European integration, visas for researchers, etc., could be good subjects for recommendations, and I think it’s a great way for these recommendations to be followed up by actions. Thank you, and I’m going to hand the floor over to Mr. Pierre Appriou, whom I thank for being here.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

7

The Actions of France and the French-Moroccan Partnership 3 Mr. Pierre APPRIOU Science Advisor to the French Embassy in Morocco Abstract. France and Morocco have developed for long an intense partnership, especially in the domain of education and research. Most of these programs are lasting several years, are decided by sector-based thematic committees and involve large French research institutions. One recent action is aiming in particular at developing networks of young enterprises in Morocco.

I am very happy to see this meeting take place in Morocco. I think that when Mrs. Bornemann-Blanc came to see me the first time to present a request for support for your event, the French embassy responded immediately. For various reasons, by the way: scientific reasons above all, as the embassy is interested in all the diverse and varied events that are held in Morocco, and they are very numerous—I’ll talk about that a little later. But also for more personal reasons, Mrs. Bornemann-Blanc and I having a working relationship that goes way back. When I was president of the University of Brest, we established a scientific event in Brest together called “Science and Ethics,” which has been going on for almost 10 years now. So I responded enthusiastically to this appeal. First of all, I would like, on behalf of the embassy, to welcome all the French nationals who made the trip to Morocco, to assure them once more how glad we are that they’re here, and to express our keen interest in the implications this type of international event has for France. It bothers me a little to speak of the French-Moroccan partnership since I can see that there are not only French and Moroccan people in the room—but I believe that’s my role, as science advisor to the French embassy, to speak about the state of this partnership today. The French-Moroccan partnership is extremely vast and is supported by committees that I’m going to try to clarify for you as briefly as possible. First of all there are the sector-based and thematic committees (CST). There are five of these CSTs and they cover just about all the exchanges France and Morocco can have. So it’s extremely varied, and the CST that interests us today is CST No. 1, which is involved with education, in the broad sense of the term, higher education and research. The decisions or the recommendations proposed by these committees are then ratified by a council, the Council of Direction and Planning (COP), of the partnership. This council wants to be a decision-making council, but for it be so effectively, these recommendations put forth by the COP must, during a high-level meeting that brings 3

Transcription from oral in French and translation.

8

P. Appriou / The Actions of France and the French-Moroccan Partnership

together every year the two prime ministers of the governments of France and Morocco, be validated by the two prime ministers. This year, this high-level meeting will be slightly postponed. As a general rule it takes place in July, but this year, it will be held in October or November. To come back to the Education, Higher Education, and Research CST, I think that as far as the two latter parts are concerned, we find ourselves actually in an extremely important context which is that of changes in higher education around the world, and in Europe in particular. A conference that was just held in Tarragona in June 2005, of which I received, not later than this morning, the summary of the final declarations, shows all the work now going on between France and Morocco. I’ll read you just two or three points from this declaration from Tarragona: “The participation of universities in the building of a Euro-Mediterranean society turns out to be urgent and necessary,” and the universities in the countries of the European Union that were present at Tarragona “recognize the Mediterranean question as a priority in defining the political and cultural future of Europe.” So, I think that in fact the time seems to have come to create a Euro-Mediterranean zone for higher education and research. I think too that all the conditions have been met for Morocco to be the pillar in the creation of this EuroMediterranean zone of higher education and research, at the level of the Maghreb countries and the countries of the Mediterranean perimeter. So, what is the French embassy doing to try to help Morocco get integrated into this European arena of higher education and research? There are two kinds of actions: 1) First, a type of action tied to the budgetary annuity: these are research programs, integrated action programs, related to agriculture and agronomy. These integrated action programs consist in linking up Moroccan and French teams on a given subject, with financial support awarded to these teams for a period of normally four years. This program has been going on for twenty years now, and has allowed us to lay the foundations for an attachment, I think extremely strong, of Moroccan research to French research within the framework of a partnership that I would call very successful. A change was made last year to this integrated action program: for a program to be eligible, there must now be two Moroccan teams on one side and two French teams on the other, in order to work toward the creation of networks. We believe in fact that research should now develop around structural networks. Speaking of budgetary annuity, I’d also like to mention the aid for colloquia, which allowed for example the French embassy to help put together today’s meeting. These requests for aid for colloquia are extremely numerous, we must get a hundred requests a year, and can support 20 to 25 of them each year, with criteria such as that the colloquia be international, of course—and, also of course, favoring French colloquia. 2) Next, we have programs that last several years. These programs are being implemented within the framework of what we call Priority Solidarity Funds (PSF), since Morocco is part of the Priority Solidarity Zone. And these programs, financed by this Solidarity Priority Fund, are extremely numerous; I’ll certainly forget a few of them in the enumeration I’m going to make, but I’ll speak of the most important. There are two types of programs financed by Priority Solidarity Funds; those we call PI programs, meaning that they are managed directly by the French embassy, and then other, mobilizing programs that are managed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Paris. In terms of the PI programs, I’ll mention two important programs: one new program put in place in October 2004 that is involved with supporting the reform of

P. Appriou / The Actions of France and the French-Moroccan Partnership

9

higher education in Morocco. This program has three parts: one part concerns the administration of the university; one pedagogy, with the setting up of professional training, professional licensing or master’s—since we’re within the framework of the LMD, which Morocco chose to follow, of course, which makes things much easier— and then a third part, which is involved in the restructuring of research and the setup of doctoral programs. So there you have a brief summary of this program financed by the Priority Solidarity Funds; it’s a program that’s going to be financed over the course of four years and it costs approximately 4.5 million euros. One program that has been going on for three years now and that is coming to an end involves enhancing research and bringing Moroccan small and medium-sized companies up to standard. Here it’s about a transfer from the university to small and medium-sized Moroccan businesses. I believe that this is an extremely interesting program, because three networks were put in place: a network of industrial engineering, a network of technological distribution, and a network called Moroccan Incubation Expansion Network [RMIE]: here it’s really the creation of mini-businesses out of research projects at Moroccan universities. And, at the end of three years, the results are starting to come in, and we can already envisage the creation of a dozen businesses from the research results from Moroccan laboratories. There’s still a year to go in this program—and the sum here is also approximately four and a half million euros. In addition, we have important new programs, which are this time PSF, thus mobilizing, which means followed directly by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Paris. The first is concerned with social sciences in the Maghreb. I believe that this is an area that has been a bit neglected, and the fact of instigating this social sciences PSF in the Maghreb is indicative of the new dynamic that’s come about in the course of the last few years. The first selection committee for projects for this PSF was held last May in Paris, and I believe the first results allow us to think that the new dynamic is under way and should allow this sector, which is a little bit difficult, a little bit delicate, a little bit political, to develop and give all its force and newness to the introduction of this new dynamic at the level of higher education and research. And then, next to that, there are a certain number of projects financed by Priority Solidarity Funds that have been running for several years: a CHORUS project, a SIRMA project—some of you at CIHEAM know SIRMA, of course, since a technical assistant from CIRAD is piloting this project, which has to do with irrigation systems in the Maghreb and not just in Morocco, a project that is important for the entire Maghreb. I would also say a word about a new PSF that seems interesting to me and I believe that the French Association for the Advancement of Science will also find it interesting, though you probably already know about it. It’s a project that focuses on scientific and technical culture, and I think that this new project, which is managed, incidentally, by the IRD, is very interesting. Finally a last project, which has not yet begun but which should soon, we hope by next October, which has to do with the mobilization of the Moroccan diaspora. And I think that we’re expecting a lot from this project of the mobilization of the Moroccan diaspora in higher education, research, but also in the medical field. On that subject, I encourage you also to be messengers for this project and invite Moroccans living in France to volunteer to help energize this last PSF, on the Moroccan diaspora. Of course, all these relationships, all this work is being done in close collaboration with the great French research organisms, all of which are involved: CNRS, INSERM, IRD, CIRAD, … IFREMER also in the field of marine science. I believe that all this

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P. Appriou / The Actions of France and the French-Moroccan Partnership

work is extremely promising, extremely revealing of this exemplary partnership and, if there’s a message I’d like to convey, it’s that we act so as to help this partnership to last, and be reinforced, and help Morocco to integrate as quickly as possible into this European arena of higher education and research. I spoke earlier about the conference in Tarragona that just took place. In this higher education network, made up of Mediterranean universities and research centers, which will be supported by the political, community, state, and local institutions of the participating countries, the following recommendations were made, and I’d like to quote them, even if they’re a bit obvious: 1. 2.

3. 4. 5. 6.

Skill development Job growth for young people in sectors requiring significant cultural skills through a system that has been advocated for a long time, but that gets more and more problematic, which is the system of internships and pilot projects, entrepreneurial in nature, supported by the universities and the networks I referred to earlier; the RMIE is working toward that. Mutual knowledge, and I think that it’s important between young students, professors, researchers, but also administrative and technical personnel, through the reinforcement of freedom of movement, exchanges, and communication. Respect also for the Euro-Mediterranean cultural and environmental heritage through various channels, and I think particularly of the translation of texts. The development of Euro-Mediterranean programs for education, for interuniversity exchanges, and other initiatives to advance training and the diffusion of knowledge. Intercultural dialogue—and I think that today’s meeting is very important in terms of this—and the reinforcement of the humanist values that are profoundly immutable and profoundly anchored in all the countries involved—through the participation of civil society and then also academic freedom and the independence of universities.

And that’s the perfect place for me to hand the floor over to the president of the University of Casablanca, Mr. Berkaoui. Thank you for your attention.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Welcome Address4 Professor Mohamed BERKAOUI President of Casablanca’s Hassan II University

Ladies and gentlemen, vice cultural attaché, esteemed professors, esteemed deans of the university, Mr. president, it’s with real pleasure that I participate today in the inauguration of the work of this important gathering in the name of Sharing Knowledge in the Mediterranean Countries. I apologize for being a little late for the opening of this gathering. Minister Habib el Malki as well as Mr. Ouali had hoped to come and honor the opening of this conference with their presence, but as you know, the constraints of this time of year got in the way, and I myself was also stuck in meetings. Mr. Ouali sends you all his best wishes and hopes for real success with your work. Professor Hoummada told me that perhaps, if the opportunity comes up or perhaps tomorrow evening, we’ll get a chance to see Minister el Malki and Mr. Ouali. Our university is very honored to welcome such a gathering which has brought together such prominent participants. Please allow me to welcome you on my personal behalf and on behalf of the Hassan II University of Casablanca. Many distinguished people have come from here and from countries with whom we have close relationships, to talk about the advancement of science and to share their knowledge on topical subjects that are acutely important for all the countries to the north and the south of the Mediterranean. I’m not going to go into the details of the program, which perhaps was already presented to you before I got here, but it involves some very important subjects that I would like to come back to, such as information technologies and communication which would without a doubt be indispensable for bringing together the people of both sides of the Mediterranean, and also ensuring for scientists especially a quick dissemination of information among them and the exchange of their knowledge and their know-how, which is necessary for progress. I would like also to mention the problem of potential natural disasters in the Mediterranean region, particularly those linked to earthquakes, to volcanic activity, in our region. Our region is also very aware of the importance of the desalination of seawater; water treatment concerns us, simply as a means to alleviate the lack of potable water due to drought which is increasingly impacting the countries on the perimeter of the Mediterranean. Without forgetting, of course, food security, the role of science in the development of the agricultural and food sector to ensure sufficient food supply; that requires the participation of our population in the fight against poisoning (various harmful poisons), emerging animal diseases and their impacts on human health. Energy problems are becoming acute, and Morocco is not spared, in view of the price increase for a barrel of oil—for Morocco imports 100% of its oil. We only have to see the rise in oil prices that’s going on right now to be convinced of the urgency of 4

Transcription from oral in French and translation.

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M. Berkaoui / Welcome Address

finding new development solutions and other sources of energy: your gathering is exciting a fair amount of interest in this area. Those are several aspects of the problems that will be discussed during this gathering and which will serve as a backdrop for sharing knowledge and bringing each other up to date in these areas, and also for seeking to develop a new kind of partnership between scientists in the south and their counterparts in the north. And of course, not just concerning science, but also sharing experiences in terms of education and research. As mentioned by Mr. Appriou a few minutes ago: in a partnership and an exemplary cooperation between Morocco and France, but also with other European countries and countries of the Mediterranean perimeter, our country joined the international education and research system and in particular the “LMD” international system. This years marks the third year that Morocco and Moroccan universities are applying this reform, and I hope that these significant reforms will bring us even closer to European scientists and those of the Mediterranean perimeter and around the world. This third year was made possible thanks to the sharing of knowledge between the countries we have close relationships with to try to benefit from experiences on both sides—and I won’t come back to this point which was already touched upon by Mr. Appriou—with the French and foreign cooperation to develop the administrations of our universities which today are enjoying pedagogic, scientific, administrative, and financial autonomy. This poses challenges, of course, in terms of our structure and of improving our internal and external efficiency to benefit the sustainable development of our region, of our country, and of our planet. Besides the administrations, there’s the educational aspect of the reform, and thus the use of new teaching methods, such as distance learning, e-learning, the virtual campus. All of this is aimed at a coming together to foster the expansion and development of our respective countries. But the changes won’t be lasting without quality science, fundamental science, of course, a science of development, a science of action, to accompany this process. And so, we have worked together with you to try to, as I was saying, get the most out of our successful experiments, on both sides. Our university, following the example of the 13 other Moroccan universities, is also in a crucial phase of structuring research so as to create favorable conditions that will allow our scientists to concretize and perpetuate their scientific production as regards innovation, and also new creations. For all these reasons, we are honored to welcome this gathering which will examine topics that are relevant today, and we want to offer, in conclusion, our best wishes for the success of this gathering—may it manage to achieve the objectives laid out, especially a bringing together of the participating scientists from both sides of the Mediterranean. I don’t want to finish without congratulating the organizers, whom I worked alongside, and whom I saw work hard to make this event a success. You all know as well as I do that to succeed at such a challenge isn’t easy, and I salute their determination and their investment. Yesterday as I watched the news on television I saw our professor of the French Association for the Advancement of Science, Mr. Klapisch, who was presenting this event. I can tell you that this conference is echoing very favorably throughout the region, our ministry, and the Moroccan scientific community, and I thank him very warmly. And of course I mustn’t forget the local organization committee, the professors of Hassan II University, who supported the scientific commission and the research and

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cooperation commission with Hassan II University and all the other bodies starting with the French embassy, who supported this event. I am convinced that the results of your work will be very rich and will have a definite impact on the development of research; I’m sure it will lead to the establishment of a dynamic cooperation, fruitful and mutually beneficial to our Mediterranean regions. Once more, I wish you great success in your work and I thank you for your attention.

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Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

Welcome Address5 Mr. Pascal COLOMBANI President of AFAS, Paris It’s a very great pleasure to be here and to find in such a convivial atmosphere so many distinguished guests for this event which, as I’m going to explain to you in a few minutes, is part of a series of conferences and colloquia on north–south scientific dialogue. Robert Klapisch has already thanked the many organizations who came to our aid, so I’m not going to go over that again. I would like however to make special mention of the Institute for Nuclear and Particle Physics, the universities Hassan II, Aïn Chock and Ibn Tofaïl, and the support of NATO, which allowed us finally to put this colloquium together—with, of course, the usual worries in terms of logistics and various other problems, but with nonetheless a bit of breathing room. To give you a little historical background, the French Association for the Advancement of Science is a very old association founded by Claude Bernard whose glory days were in the past until fairly recently. It had entered a kind of lethargic phase until Robert, a few years ago, pulled it out of its slumber by directing it in a very specific way toward a dialogue between society and science and technology: How do we make citizens better understand the importance of science and technology? That’s what we’re trying to do with means that are not considerable but that also are not nonexistent. We have several events in France that we’re involved with at all levels. We organize seminars that are open to everyone; it’s almost popularizing, but it’s very important, because it’s very successful. We put them on in partnership with the Conservatory of Applied Arts; we also work with the Palace of Discovery in Paris for other kinds of seminars that we put on regularly. We also have seminars with what we call “decision-makers,” meaning heads of industry, heads of the private and public sectors. Interestingly enough, these people are, of course, vaguely up to speed, but in fact not very up to speed at all with the major issues in science and technology. In addition to these regular activities, we launched, four or five years ago, more specifically this north–south scientific dialogue. We began in 2002, I believe, in Marseille with an event that cost a lot—though in the end we managed to recover—and that event had the merit of launching the topic in a very extensive, very vast manner. So vast that for the following conference, which took place in Geneva, at CERN on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of CERN, and with the support of CERN—thanks once again for that—we narrowed our focus, our meeting was smaller, a little like the format we have today and in which, like this year, we try to look at the big subjects: energy, health, food, freedom of movement, communication, the environment. It’s an occasion to examine these big subjects, yes, and perhaps not all of them, but with a fairly limited scope, and having here those distinguished persons who bring a great deal to them through their work and their thinking. 5

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P. Colombani / Welcome Address

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So what we’re discussing here, finally, are the big subjects of science and technology, and those whom these big subjects concern, which we’re going to look at today and tomorrow and the day after tomorrow: energy techniques and technologies, telecommunications, genomics, information technologies, sciences of the Universe. We can say, finally, that there are things that have changed, that are changing the world. When we talk about the digital divide, when we talk about genetically modified foods, when we talk about energy, after all these last years have brought us the genome, also the Internet, also the sun. In the end it’s a triptych—the genome, the sun, the Internet— which is changing how we build the north–south dialogue in the scientific and technical fields. We’re also addressing how we can develop scientific knowledge and so we’ll talk about SESAME, a specifically Mediterranean project. We’ll also talk about many other things, like the diffusion of knowledge and ways of life, because we also have to think about these somewhat sociological aspects: how to do all of this and what context it all brings about. So this year we have a special roundtable on the place of women in science and technology. I believe in the importance of these dialogues. It’s especially important that we know what naturally different perceptions our female colleagues bring to this largely male environment. It will be interesting to hear how these things can be or are seen by our colleagues, and how they can change—in particular how the relations between the sexes can be, in a way, redefined in our countries. So, to leave time for this roundtable, which is very important, I’m going to stop there and thank you for your attention.

Session 1 Extension of the European Research Area to the Mediterranean Convener: Jean-Patrick CONNERADE Imperial College of London President of Euroscience, Strasbourg

As an introduction of this afternoon’s session, I would like to remind you the agreements which were signed in Lisbon and in Barcelona, and which were aiming at transforming our European society as a “Knowledge Society”, an expression in vogue. Of course, all human societies are aiming at that goal; this project is indeed universal and puts the scientists at the center of our cares. In fact, the number of researchers and their level will determine what will happen to this “knowledge society”. This afternoon, we will look at the context in which researchers will work and how they will be welcomed in our societies. The sociology of the scientific world is part of the sociology in general, but it is admitted now that the place of the scientists should be at the centre of this new society. Therefore, we should ask ourselves the following questions: What should be the working conditions for researchers? − How the societies of tomorrow will attract and valorize them? − How can we evaluate their work and their potential? − How can we attract young people in the research field?

These questions are essential as they will touch upon our economies. Let us start with an example of the successful welcome of scientists in ICTP, the international laboratory founded by Abdus Salam, and whose role is essential for our countries.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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ICTP as a Model for Excellence for Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Training in the South6 Katepalli R. SREENIVASAN Abdus Salam Research Professor Director, ICTP Trieste Abstract. Founded by Abdus Salam and established near Triete, ICTP main goal is to make the most advance scientific knowledge available to everybody, especially the least advanced countries. Visitors coming from all over the world for a variable duration can continue there their own research or follow specialized courses. Links with local institutes are being developed, to follow and continue helping visitors, in particular in Africa, but are difficult to implement because of the lack of Internet communication means.

The frontiers of science have been expanding very rapidly at least in the last 100 years or so. For many institutes in developing countries, it is often very difficult to catch up with all the advances and to actively participate in making these advances. So many different schemes have been devised how to involve developing countries, not only in catching up but also in actually pushing the frontiers of science. ICTP, the International Center for Theoretical Physics, is one example of an organization that builds a bridge between developing and developed countries. Its goal has been to make the most advanced scientific knowledge available to everyone, including the least developed countries so that infrastructures of high level research can take roots in those countries. So that is the theme of our institution, and for instance, when Morocco is embarked on a new scientific ventures and cooperation with its neighborhoods of the North, it seems like a brief account of how ICTP functions, what it does and where it succeeds and why it succeeds. So it may be useful to explain these points and this is in this spirit that I offered to make the following presentation. I will start by following the suggestion of the convener of this session and by saying a few words about the history of ICTP. This Institute was founded more or less 40 years ago by Abdus Salam, who was the Nobel laureate in 1979, and whose work had direct connections with Carlo Rubbia by the way. This is an institution which operates under the tripartite agreement between two United Nations agencies, UNESCO and AIEA on the one hand, and the Government of Italy on the other. This is really a very important arrangement because the international character gives us an umbrella that makes it possible for this institution to be international, that is, for people from countries like Morocco for instance, to come and feel that the institution belongs to them. On the other hand, as you will see, the Government of Italy plays an extremely 6

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K.R. Sreenivasan / ICTP as a Model for Excellence for Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Training

important role because it actually funds for a very large amount. The mission of the center is to foster the growth of advanced studies and research in developing countries. As I said before, UNESCO and AIEA have given some money, and also we get some money from SIDA, the Kuwait foundation and others but about 82% of the budget comes from Italy. This country has been extremely generous in doing this and I think it has come within the culture of Italian scientific community for many years. An institution like ours is not only interested in creating knowledge, which of course many other institutions are always involved in, but in sharing it with others, which is at least as important. This is working the principle with which the Center works. But just for those of you who don’t know where ICPT is, the Figure 1 shows Europe and Trieste in the upper eastern corner of Italy. In the enlarged part, you can see Trieste here at the bottom and a few kilometers to the north, we have this campus where ICTP is located. There are number of other institutions that came up since ICPT was created, with ICPT’s leadership, not only in ICTP campus but also in this area, on the east of the city in the Science Park. ICPT is a part of institutions that actually have involvements in developing countries. Elettra, about which you will hear more perhaps tomorrow, is not far away. It is also another institution in which Carlo Rubbia was involved in, and which is interested in scientific capacity building up in developing countries.

Figure 1.

Now, let me say a little about how we are basically organized. We have 28 or so “permanent” scientist, permanent between quotation marks because within the UNESCO there is nothing permanent in general, but that is the general idea. These persons are involved in research, some of them are actually full state scientists and we would like everyone now to become full state scientist to have them fully involved in research and training coordination.

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We also have 110 temporary staff which includes about 52 or so post docs, staff associates – these are people who have acquired a name in their own countries in science and they come and spend some time with us so that they build bridges between themselves and us. Some of the temporary staff are long term visitors who have to write a book for instance, or who have a sabbatical leave to spend. We welcome such visitors and they do mostly research. Finally we have about 420 people in any given year that are short-term visitors, among them are our associates. These people, who are associates with the Centre for something of the order of 10 years, come almost every year or every other year sometimes, for about two months or so, and I will show you some statistics about Morocco for instance. Associates are people who have careers of their own in their own countries, but use ICTP as the means of keeping contact with the rest of the community and actually doing things that they could not do at home because they are bound by too much teaching or too much bureaucratic stuff and things of that sort. This really forms the core of the research activities in the center, but what makes the center somewhat even more special is that we usually have 4,000 to 6,000 visitors every year: 6,191 in 2003 and a little bit more in 2004. These visitors participate in many conferences and school programs and workshops and sometimes these are pedagogical trainings at the very frontier of the subject. It depends on the purpose of a particular program: the programs are organized by our scientists here along with the help of a number of other scientists in the rest of the world. So the Center works not only because of people who are there but also because of the connections it has with a number of other people outside.

Figure 2.

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Of course, to take care of this many visitors, to get visas and accommodation and so on, we have about 125 general staff. So that’s the nature of the institution in general. Figure 2 shows statistics between 1970 and 2003, (we did not have any statistics before 1970 and I have not been able to put the 2004 statistics yet). Basically, we have many visitors and person-months from United States and Europe. In fact the largest numbers of visitors we get are from Italy and from Western Europe because we are close to Italy and to Western Europe. But by and large, if you take out the Western Europe, the United States and part of Russia for instance, the rest is really developing countries in some general sense: Latin America, Africa, Asia, China and other Oceanic countries including Australia. So if you add them all up, you will get about 100,000 or so visitors for these many years, 50% from developing countries and 50% from the developed countries. The idea is in fact to mix people of different experiences, different backgrounds in such a way that they learn from each other mostly rather than from the people who are there permanently. Although there are only 50% visitors from developing countries, they spend 75% of the amount of personmonth that is, they spend more time in the center than people from industrialized countries. Figure 3 shows how the number of visitors has grown up with time. It is due mostly on how generous Italy has been with the money in some general sense. For the last few years, although we haven’t had any increase in money, we have squeezed more things and then we have made it possible to have more things within the center. ICTP visitors: 1964-2004 7000 6000 5000

Visitors from "Hosted activities"

4000

Visitors from developed countries From developing countries

3000 2000 1000

64 /6 68 5 /6 9 19 73 19 77 19 81 19 85 19 89 19 93 19 97 20 01

0

Figure 3.

Now let me come to what research gets done at ICTP and why it is done that way. The High Energy group is traditionally very strong; it has been very strong because of the interest of the founder and now we have expended it to include cosmology, astroparticle physics and condensed matter. There is also a statistical physics section, applied and pure mathematics, then an applied physics section, which includes medical physics, optics, lasers and fluid dynamics and so on. We then have a new section on earth sciences, which includes weather climate changes, oceanography, earthquakes, all the sciences that you are particularly interested in some of the remarks that were made

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earlier. We even had a program, or have had a program on environmental and ecological economics, and many other centers in fact are connected to us for this. I have to make something like a common sense statement here, which is: it is very important for ICPT to have a strong core of research activity. ICTP cannot be like many other UNESCO organizations for instance, because if we don’t do science, it is not possible for us to influence other people to do science and we have to do good science, not just any science. This is something that has been in our mind very deeply and we keep to this idea as much as possible. Now many people may ask why this emphasis on High Energy Physics and similar matters for developing countries? Who cares about High Energy Physics in developing countries? But actually my answer has several aspects and I want to spend a minute or so on this subject. Let’s say somebody from a developing country - Morocco is an exception in this case as there are many people interested in High Energy Physics here - let’s say somebody from Uganda wants to do High Energy Physics. Who am I to tell him that this is not for him and that it is only for people in the Institute for Advanced Studies in Princeton? For people like that there must be a place in the world to come and do this sort of stuff. I use High Energy Physics; and I know that CERN is of course a great institution that allows for it. But for such things, ICTP is in fact the place where many people have come. And secondly, if you really train yourself to do something in a rigorous way at some point in your life, this will really remain with you for the rest of the time and it is important to gain rigor in one’s way of thinking, otherwise it is impossible to do anything of some value. Furthermore, I actually believe, and I know this is the case, that the tools that one uses in one of these fields can be transferred to other areas. For instance I know people who have worked in let’s say cosmic microwaves, background radiation and use the analysis for mapping of the data, have in fact use the same kind of ideas for mapping, for instance, the farthest regions in Rwanda. Finally, we are also talking about sustainable development. Sustainable development has in fact very old problems such as providing in general clean drinking water and similar basic things. Even there, high end of technology can be extremely beneficial and CERN in fact has been using this idea in general. I can give you many examples where high end technology has been useful for age old problems of sustainable development goals. In many cases they consist of the trained people who have acted as nucleus for other institutions. This is not wishful thinking, it’s actually true. I know some of those people, who were trained and educated in ICTP. In addition, I must say that we have many programs on a very large number of domains even though we don’t have expertise within ICTP ourselves. We then involve others who are experts in these fields, but I don’t want to take you through all this stuff. We also built a new section on earth-based system physics, which consists of physics of climate systems, physics and predictions of earthquakes, and soil physics and alternative sources of energy, upper atmosphere. All of this is of direct interest to many developing countries. So this is my rapid answer to what we do and why we do it. In addition to the core activities, we take students who have just finished their bachelor’s degree in many of the developing countries and who are very bright people but don’t have the right sort of training and the right sort of education in order to go into research. These students of that level are 20 to 23-4 years old and come for a diploma program in ICTP. They spend a year or so taking courses in different branches of physics and mathematics. For the group that has just been graduated a few days ago, the students were mostly from the least developed countries. In a batch of 39 or so, 8

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are from Africa, 11 from Asia and Middle East, 4 from Latin America and 2 from Central Asia. Out of the 500 students or so we have had, 60% of them have entered in graduate schools and have done extremely well. Many of them remain connected to their own countries and we are planning new grades on applied mathematics and systems physics. This, I think, is another avenue in which young people who are very good are taken in at low level and then raised to very high level in general. Since we are in Africa and pretty surely, Morocco regards itself as an African Country, I want to spend a little time on the involvement of ICTP in Africa in the creation of affiliate centers in the rest of the world. (See Figure 4). These centers are small centers, but there the level of activities is very high. By creating many such small institutions around, the general idea is that it will be possible to raise the level of science everywhere. ICTP has been instrumental in creating about 14 affiliates centers; 6 of them are in Africa as shown on Figure 4. One of them is now closed unfortunately, but nevertheless the others are generally working very well. There are also many so-called external activities that we support in Africa, such as meetings, topical schools and workshops and so on. In Western Africa for instance we have, over time, really invested a lot on Mathematics through a concerted effort. Year after year, our people go and teach courses and arrange other activities, like networks of people, graduate programs, and so on.

Figure 4.

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To go back to visitors and fellows, these people are expatriates who want to go back to their countries for some time. We help them financially a little bit, as for associates. Out of the 256 associates we have, about 30% of the total are from Africa, and the STEP program has been set up for them. It concerns people who want to do PhD: they have to get the degree from their own countries and be registered in their own countries, but they come and spend half of their time in ICTP in order for them to get connected with the rest of the world in some general sense, with ICTP in particular. We also have the so-called PIL fellows, who are people coming from developing countries and spending some time in Italian laboratories, These people spend about a year or so in Italian labs, they are funded by ICTP to a large extent and the rest of the money comes from those institutions. We are also constructing some other programs in Kenya and other places. Now this is just to give you a general idea where people are coming from, in particular from Africa. From Morocco, for instance, we have as you can see, 785 visitors to ICTP and there are 5 institutions collaborating with ICTP in general. As you can see we have focused the large on the Western part of the continent and much on the East, and of course there is a large part that, for whatever reason, which has not been much involved in ICTP. One of the last things I want to talk about is the following: although our interest is mainly in physics and mathematics, in a very broad sense, it is not just very narrowly defined, but still, sometimes we get involved in projects which are outside of it in some sense. Let me give you an example to illustrate this. Previously, we used to supply books and libraries’ subscriptions to a number of scientists who had problems in getting all the literature. Today, the world is very different and literature has to be obtained electronically. But the bottleneck is that there is not much connectivity, especially with Africa. If one compares the cable traffic between let’s say United States and Europe and the one with Africa, you can have a rough idea of what the problem is (see Figure 5).

Figure 5.

Another way of looking at it this is the bandwidth between US and Europe and between Africa and US or Europe. You can see it is really a pittance. In fact in many

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places in Africa, if you want to download an issue of the Physical Review Letters, it is just almost impossible because you just log on to the network and then wait and wait. By the way Morocco is maybe an exception, as it almost never happens. Under these circumstances it is very hard for me to understand how anybody can do physics. This is why we have been pushing many institutions to provide the infrastructure for Internet Connection. We on the other hand will take care of providing access to technical literature, scientific literature through connections with publishers and other institutions and also provide training courses to really have some idea how to use that technology for instance. Another aspect is the quantitative measure of the speed of the Internet in Africa towards the rest of the world, shown in Figure 6 as a function of time starting in 1998 up to 2005. Don’t worry about the precise quantity with which the speed of the Internet is measured, it is actually measured by sending a pulse and then finding the time it takes to bounce back. On the left map are the institutions where the survey has been conducted, in fact there are two in Morocco, I think. You can see how North America has been doing and Europe actually falls fairly behind, but where is Africa in general? You should also understand that this is not necessarily inclusive of all the African countries, some of which I have ignored. As you can see in this right part, Africa is much worse than the rest of the world. This is why we are involved in such projects dealing with the Internet, only because these are vehicles by which you can communicate the knowledge that is essential.

Figure 6.

I must say that part of the problem comes from the government control in some sense, and in some cases, this is also coming from the cost for a certain quantity of Internet connectivity. Look at Nigeria for instance, the problem here is not coming because of the government regulations and other restrictions, but from the cost, which is almost 100 times higher than in the USA for the same bandwidth, which makes it extremely difficult for you to set up such connections. And therefore, one of the things we do is to try to improve that situation through different projects. One of them is to supply articles electronically through e-mail, but this is a very complicated affair. Let me finish now with three statements. The first one is that we try to look for skilled individuals, independent of which country they come from and of what the international standing of their institution is. I

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think this is very important, as even very poor institutions in poor countries have some very skilled individuals. Of course, we have to identify them, and this is a lot of hard work; it is not going to just happen like this. It is very easy to pick up the best people from Harvard or some place like that because they are in fact all very good, but the point is that if you want to pick up people on whom it is worth spending some time and effort, you have to do a lot of work. So this is one important thing. What we also do, or try to do anyhow, is to pick up the brightest scientists, without regard for reputation of their institution or the scientific target of their country, and set them in a position such that they can build their own activity in their own country. When this eventually happens, some of them do that and become involved in public life of their country, and we support them for a reasonably long period of time of the order of 10 years. There is no point in letting someone come at ICTP for three months and then forgetting about him. Absolutely nothing will happen if you do it like this. To the contrary, you should have a sustained connection for these people. Unfortunately we should be able to do more but we can’t. But whatever we do we do for a large period of time and capacity building means that, at some point the people involved must do something substantial with their hands and their minds: they just cannot come and sit in the lecture room, just nodding their heads and going away. They have to do something, they have to do research, they have to write something, this is a very essential point. The next thing is that institutions have to be transparent, and this is what we try to do. If we don’t have transparent institutions, good individuals cannot do very much. So this is another important aspect and we try very hard with various institutions. Institutions must also have steady sources of support, just like individuals, free of political interference I would say. We cannot do much there, this is a bit beyond us, but still we try to help people in many different ways. This is why ICTP gets engaged with politicians and ministries and other bodies, even though it is not our business directly. Like individuals, new institutions need the support of important people and other institutions. Networking is thus essential, and we support their creation quite often, but networking cannot replace a solid work and the effort of individuals. This is something I constantly keep saying, it is essential: networking is fine but you ought to have substance before you go do that. To sum up, among ICTP’s associates, we have had one President of the Republic, which is very nice, 11 ministers, deputy ministers, 2 members of parliament, 7 advisors to presidents or prime ministers, different presidents of University, deans of faculties and heads of institutions. I will conclude with just how a few people perceive ICTP, although this is obviously selective. For instance Lorenza Matsuri from Milan basically says: “The most important contribution of ICTP is the concept of excellence and at this, ICTP has been the most influencing institute in the world to bring that into existence”. In other words, we keep the goal of doing something really well: there is a big difference between doing things, and doing things well. That is a point that I constantly make. We have similar comments from Vietnam, for instance, which says: nearly every PhD physicists in East Asia has had an associateship with ICTP. What he says about East Africa is pretty much true of all sub-Saharan Africa in general. Finally, we don’t forget that this is happening in Italy, because for us it is very important to be connected to our neighbors and because Italian physicists have done very much for our center, not mentioning again the financial support of Italy to ICTP. I want to end this talk with a somewhat high note by citing what Mr. Andreotti, who used to be foreign minister in 1984, said from us: “This Center can make an effective

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contribution to the solution of the central problem of humanity, namely that of peace. Of course, this is true of all international institutions, CERN and other institutions they don’t really talk about peace all the time or almost never but somehow, by working the way they work, they contribute to peace. So this is my few things about ICTP.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Training and Career Development of Researchers: the EU Context7 Georges BINGEN European Commission, Directorate General Research Abstract. My presentation will be an outline of the EU context, and will in particular include a brief presentation of: • Marie Curie actions open for co-operation with 3d countries • Charter/Code Training and career development of researchers are key in research policy. EU actions include general policy actions as well as financial instruments.

1. Financial Instruments (Mainly Marie Curie Actions) • • •

For many years (since the sixties) there are EU training fellowships; transfer of knowledge measures; as well as excellence promotion measures. In FP6 (2002-2006): €1.8 Billion; i.e. +/- €450 billion/year. A proposal for FP7 has been presented with the following specifications: doubling b of the requested budget; continuation of general FP6 philosophy and most of its actions; however also with a few extensions, of which in particular a new scheme for cooperation with 3d countries.

2. Policy Actions Since 2000, the European Research Area (ERA) concept provides a frame for an integrated approach including both the Community actions, i.e. not only RTD framework programmes, but also the coordination of EU and Member States research policy. Since 2002, EU Lisbon/Barcelona objectives, a knowledge for growth pact, reflects the need for more researchers (estimated to an additional 700,000 researchers, on top of the required 500,000 to replace the researchers leaving for retirement by 2010). 2.1. Action Line 1: Mobility Strategy Researchers benefit from mobility experiences of all types: international mobility as well as mobility between sectors. It creates experience, connections, networking, research contacts and generates cooperation. It needs therefore to be encouraged. 7

Original text in English.

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G. Bingen / Training and Career Development of Researchers: The EU Context

But there are obstacles to the mobility of researchers (legal, administrative, social, and practical). Actions at community level include: • • •

Network of 200 mobility centres to provide practical support to mobile researchers; Eracareers Mobility portal, a unique web portal linking all web sites including information for mobile researchers, including job opportunities; EU (Visa) directive to facilitate entry conditions for non-EU researchers; recommendations to Member States to speed up visa delivery for short visits; etc.

2.2. Action Line 2: Career Development Policy Europe needs more and highly qualified researchers, but research careers are not attractive compared to other careers in Europe, and to e.g. US. There is therefore a tendency for the best brains to leave Europe. Actions have therefore been taken at Community level to ensure the recruitment and retention of researchers in the ERA: • •

Raising public (including policy makers) awareness (e.g. Researchers in Europe Initiative). Recognition of researchers rights and obligations, and commitments from research organisations (employers) and funders to respect and support researchers careers: the European Researchers Charter and Code of Conduct for the recruitment of researchers. These two instruments are a Recommendation from the European Commission to the Member States, employers, funders and researchers. They are the fruit of broad consultation of the scientific community, and reflect a broad consensus on the principles included. The Charter and Code are implemented on voluntary basis, and constitute a reference point for the career management of researchers, with an aim to assuring a supportive research environment and working conditions. They are expected to create a genuine (attractive, open, sustainable) European labour market for researchers.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Evaluation, Criteria for Excellence 8 Jean-Pierre BOURGUIGNON CNRS – Institut des Hautes Etudes Scientifiques Abstract. The author has been involved in a number of evaluations of individuals, institutes or even countries. Although performed in his own field, i.e. mathematics, the experience gained over the year is valuable for other science domains and show that evaluation is essential for insuring excellence level and must be adapted to those being evaluated, researchers, structures and countries.

Thank you for inviting me to make this presentation, whose title “Evaluation Criteria for Excellence in Europe” was not exactly mine. The only transformation I made to the title was to add a comma after “evaluation”, as I think it changes a little bit the meaning. I also dropped “Europe”, because I felt that what I want to say is really general, even if my own experience is rather based either on Europe or America. So let me start my presentation by just giving few points of reference, simply for the purpose of saying that a number of things are probably biased mainly because of my personal professional experience. 1. Some Reference Points As a professional, I am a mathematician. I have been therefore working in theoretical science for quite some time, which at one extreme point of the scientific spectrum. I’ve been working at CNRS for already 37 years, but for five times in my life, I spent one year in different foreign countries: Japan, United States, Germany and a few others, China, and some several months in European countries. I have been also teaching in a University which is actually an engineering school, of a very special type, namely the Ecole Polytechnique. As part of my duty now, I have been appointed as the director of a private foundation, which is the Institut des Hautes Etudes Scientifiques, which is a very specific and completely international structure: last year we had visitors from 32 countries and in the last ten years, 54 countries visited IHES. The way we are organized is very much having in mind to bring scientists from different disciplines and have them working together. So, although I am a mathematician, I am used to deal with physicists and more recently with biologists because we started a new venture into molecular biology. The next point I want to make here is very directly connected to my topic: this is the fact that I did participate in a number of evaluations just as a mathematician but sometimes also with a broader spectrum. In particular I have been involved a number 8

Transcription from oral in English.

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of times in recent years, in evaluating disciplines at a national level which, I think, was a very interesting and stimulating experience. For example, I was involved in the evaluation of mathematics in Canada as a country, UK, Austria; I am supposed to do something for Australia next February. So I have been involved in this special exercise of trying to tell a government or an agency where a country stands in terms of its level of development. The bias I wanted to speak about is, you know, that mathematicians tend to be elitists, so in some sense I must have not escaped this influence, and a number of things I am going to say tend to be elitist, but I think one has to deal with that. Another thing, to which I have been really very sensitive as a mathematician, is the fact that various disciplines function differently. This is something which is very often really overlooked, and I will be a bit critical to the Commission about that, because the Commission tends to completely uniform rules of all disciplines, which I think is a disaster. Anyway I am going to comment on that later. One point to note is that evaluation covers very different levels. The first is individual people, second level concerns laboratories or institutes, and last level is the discipline and the skills of the country. I really believe that, although we use the same words, namely evaluating, the methodology and also the way you can use information, the way you can take advantage of what you have found, are extremely different at various levels and therefore one has to be very careful in generalizing from one level to the other. Another point, which I believe is the heart of the matter, is that, in a sense, science, and in particular scientific research, is something for which the quest for excellence is really the motivation for getting the system working. Therefore if you can manage to get the system in a way that the quest for excellence is indeed recognized, it will have a very important influence on the way you structure the whole system. That is something I really have witnessed and I have seen a typical example of it in the case of Portugal. When Portugal joined the European Union, the situation, at least for my discipline of Mathematics, was not so extraordinary. There were some good laboratories but in general the level was very traditional. And the minister in place, who actually is the present minister - he was not minister all the time but has this position again - asked a group of people to evaluate the situation for Portugal. None of them was Portuguese. I must say that in 10 years the change of the situation has been absolutely dramatic. The whole point here was really to forget about local power but just to get outside people to look at the situation and propose for changes. So I really believe that if you take seriously this quest for excellence, you can have a very substantial impact on the way the research functions. Another way of saying what I just said concerning the way you can get to excellence is that, if you don’t follow this way and if you keep excellence evaluation being in the hands of friends of local people, the impact can be extremely negative. Therefore, it is absolutely crucial that the selection of people who evaluate be based purely on the competence level and a few rules concerning independence and making sure that people are really outsiders. 2. Conditions for a Successful Evaluation Let me go to what I see as an essential condition if you want to have successful evaluation. I want just to list a few points, which each time I will try to give a reason

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for it. I already said that, research is done in very different ways depending whether you are theoretician or an experimentalist, and you also have to take into account the differences between disciplines and the different kinds of research you are doing. Taking into account this diversity is absolutely fundamental, and is not always done, which is very unfortunate. The key reason is exactly what I said: if you take a community of researchers, it has its own mode of organization, which of course has often very good reasons to exist, but sometimes the reasons are not so good. Another point is that, depending on the disciplines you are working in, your timescale is a different: if you are planning an accelerator like CERN has been doing, the basic timescale is more or less 20 years. For some other disciplines, the reaction has to be much quicker. Very often in industry also people know that they have to come up with a project very, very quickly. So you have to take these differences into account which means that the ways in which you are going to do the evaluation has really to respect these differences. Last point is of course that, even the signs of recognition are not the same. As mathematicians we tend to be very international in some sense, and it is quite unusual that there are some local, I mean national schools, although sometimes you find some twisted ways of looking at problems. One definitely has to be very attentive to the differences in recognition. Another thing which I learned, and which, I must say, I missed for some time, because I just believed in the words, which was a mistake on my part, is that, very often, the function you assign to a person with very well defined title is not the same from one discipline to the other. Just take the case of a postdoctoral fellow. As mathematician usually you can really start a new activity in a place by hiring a postdoctoral fellow; you are expecting that he comes already with a research program, which can really bring a new sub-discipline in the lab. It so happened that we had no system for postdoctoral fellows for long time in the French system. There was a very small program, which we called the Bresan Fellowships, which was taken care of by the ministry of foreign affairs. At some point I was asked to evaluate this program and I spent two days in the ministry looking with big pile of files. When looking at these files I was very shocked on the first day, but after a while I understood that I just missed something, which was the completely different nature of the letters of recommendation for postdocs in biology and those in mathematics or computer science. Basically all letters for postdocs in biology were describing the kind of techniques the person was really mastering, and essentially no words on the new ideas on his or her thesis. For mathematics, it was the exact opposite. The letters described what the new ideas that the person had brought were. This was clearly explaining that these different people were not expecting the same function in the lab. One has to be very careful that, with the same title, namely postdoctoral fellow, you may not expect at all the same implications or the same impact on the lab in which the person is coming from one discipline to the other. I want to make some more points. As I said choosing the evaluators is very difficult, but the kind of working conditions you offer them is also important. By working conditions I mean for instance, will the evaluators have the possibility of defining the kind of documents you are going to give them or do you decide a priori that they will be given this pile of documents and nothing else? I think it is very important for evaluations of a certain scale, that indeed some evaluators, maybe not the whole group but at least the chairman of the group, be associated with the kind of documents that he would like to have. In the same way I think it is extremely important,

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if you want to have efficient evaluations, that also the program of visits is not something which is decided by the sites, by the visited places but also by the evaluators. So the evaluators should be given the opportunity to define the methodology they want to use, the kind of people they want to work with. Personally I have been always extremely strict about the fact that I really wanted to meet the young people separately from the advisors and spend quite some time with them. Sometimes it does not please some of the people in charge, but I think it is very important to give an opportunity of free speech without nobody from the institution and to listen to what could be said by the younger people. In conclusion, I think that what I call the working conditions or the boundary conditions of the evaluation, are not something of secondary importance because it could change completely the way the whole evaluation goes. The next stage is also very important: of course, in many organizations, evaluation is part of the system, but depending on how you set it up, you could have actually the evaluation not as a help for improving, but actually an obstacle for developing. Let me give few examples in the case of evaluation of people. Of course a typical moment where you evaluate people is when you want to promote them. And I must say, for having witnessed that at the CNRS, that because of actually lacking positions, it is very clear that one of the difficulties in improving interdisciplinarity is very much directly related to the way the procedure for promotions is implemented. Promotions are very difficult to get, people are more or less waiting in line for years to get their promotions, and many people have the feeling that if they don’t do what they are known to be the best at for some years and try to do something else, basically they ruin their chances for a promotion. So one has to be careful that evaluation can become actually an obstacle and not an incentive for people to look into pluridisciplinary programs, depending on how it is set up. Another example which I want to give, is in the United Kingdom, which has developed something, which I think was considered by many people as very important progress: it is called the Research Assessment Exercise and is a national committee which was set up and basically gives the grades to every lab. From these grades you get the basic level of financing. But actually the way it has been set up means that the unit which is really responsible for defending a given lab is the University in which this Lab is sitting. As a result, if the research team is really organized in a group, coordinated actions between small groups in different Universities, basically at different places, these groups are small enough that they are not seen by the administration as vital, and consequently, even if they are performing remarkably well as a group because they are really working together in a very organized way, finally such an activity is completely negated and it disappears from site, if you put too much emphasis on such an assessment exercise. And we could see this effect when we did the global evaluation for the United Kingdom for Mathematics: a number of networks which had been producing remarkable research works were completely disappearing from the organization just because the R&D research assessment exercise has made them invisible from every University where they were located. So clearly if you put in place a system which a priori looks nice, because you have a very thorough system of assessment, it may result in killing some kind of research activities. Of course that was not the intention of people who put it to work, but you need to point to this, I mean, difficulty. Another thing that I already mentioned, and which is something extremely important, is the fact that there are several structures, such as European Union and

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European Commission, where they definitely want to have a completely uniform system of applications or complete uniform system of evaluation for all programs. I must say that, at least for the case of Mathematics, we have seen from European Commission that number of things have been actually going worse and worse in a sense that it was basically impossible to get a number of activities formulated in a proper way: even if you looked at the forms you had to fill, basically it was impossible to put anywhere everything which was significant. And as a result, you were really caught in some kind of impossibility of really making your case in the proper way. So when you are doing an evaluation, you need to recognize and to already take into account the format of the valuation the discipline you are evaluating. This is, I think, extremely important. 3. Evaluating Individuals As I pointed out already, it is very important to make a difference between evaluating individual people, evaluating Labs or Institutes, and evaluating disciplines at the National level or even European level, for several reasons. Let me just mention a few things. The evaluation of individual people is of course something which is very natural, and it is practiced by the scientific community in many different ways. When you submit an article to a journal, you are evaluated, as there is an editorial board that is looking into it, there are referees, and so this is something which exists already. For physics, almost all universities or institutes have a system, in which the thesis is not just read by the advisor but also by outside people with a reference. Many universities are also practicing systematically looking for outside referees when they want to promote people. So in a sense the practice of evaluating is already something which is completely accepted and in place for individual people. The key point is to make sure about independence of the people who make the judgment. Actually it is very difficult to avoid at some stage some self-recruiting, or, let say a system which is completely a closed market, where people who give opinions are actually people who have already a deal with the people who are evaluated. This is extremely critical, particularly for France: if you look at the spectrum of disciplines, the attitude of the community towards self-hiring is quite variable. Hiring people that you have trained can go up to 85%, for one discipline I will not mention, while it is only 16% or so for another one. This shows there are really very wide practices between these two extremes, and I think in the long run it makes a huge difference : if you are in a system where self-hiring is the rule, and if you stop to make an exception, people are really caught in a very difficult situation. If you don’t want to practice self-hiring, they have to send their people elsewhere, and of course some are hired nowhere, so you have to make a very voluntary measures to really make this change. This is typically what happened for Portugal, where the ministry was really extremely strict on this point. I must say that on a 10 years scale this is a remarkable success, but you have to be very tough at some point, and actually to refuse the means for people who want to practice self-hiring. Also, it is very important to identify and really give to people who are competent the opportunity to give their opinions. Actually this is something which all systems in the world are extremely tempted to avoid. One prefers to use very automatic system to do evaluation because, relying on the opinions of people seems to be very fragile and

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also very difficult: people may change their minds and the opinions they express are sometimes a bit ambiguous, so it looks so much better to use automatic impact factors or things like this. I must say, as a mathematician I feel this is terrible. In fact, my own opinion on impact factors is that basically you can use them only when you know enough on the work, which means you don’t need them. So, one has to be very careful with the use of such systems. I am talking here of the evaluation of individuals. It is a different thing when you want to evaluate the value of an activity at, for example level of a country, even at level of institutes, and I will make some comments later. Personally as far as evaluation of individuals is concerned, I would really refuse to consider these things, which doesn’t mean one doesn’t have to look into the publications of these people, whether they have been publishing or not. But the point here is that the number is not the key factor, the key factor is the quality, and who can assess the quality but competent people? I know of most of the mathematicians: some are very famous people who have extremely few publications and some are extremely good people with many publications, and what makes the difference is of course what they have done, not so much how many papers they have published. Impact factors have a number of very negative consequences also: they tend to push people to publishing many papers, no matter what the quality is. At some stage, it’s extremely important to leave researchers, time enough to do ambitious work, to look at difficult questions. And if you tackle difficult questions, most likely you are going to need time to do anything substantial. I wanted to make this comment on the need for some patience when one talks about evaluating researchers, the need for relying on the judgment of competent people, and independent people, which is crucial. My last point concerning individuals concerns young fellows, young researchers. It is extremely important that one considers them in a special way, because it is very important that they know that they should take some risks. If they don’t learn young enough that they have the possibility of taking some risks, they will certainly not do it later. They would be tempted just to do some more technical work later, which may be all right, but they really could have done some more. So I think one has to be very careful. So from that point of view the initiatives which have been mentioned in the previous talk, and the fact that young people, in particular at the post-doctoral moment, should be given enough time, are very important. Postdoctoral fellowship with only one year is something, which should not exist any more, because, as soon as you get the job, you have to look for the next job so how can you do something of substance if you are given so little time? I know that very well because my own institution has a lot of difficulty in practicing long term commitments, but I think it is very important that a very special attention be given to young researchers. 4. Evaluating Structures Concerning the evaluation of research structures, I want to stress again the need to really to leave enough room for differences, for different scales, for the kind of research they are doing and so on. It is very well known that in many disciplines, financing projects has really become the heart of the financing of research. And I think this is very reasonable. On the other hand, if this becomes too important and is really the essential part of the money that labs are receiving, and in particular if this financing goes in short term projects, it can put the whole institution not in a good position to

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prepare its future, and it will force people to just look for very narrow-minded and short-focused research programs, which is not good for the long run. Of course, you can have periods where times are difficult and you can concentrate the use these financial means, but it should not be done too systematically. It is very important that institutions have a balanced situation between some kind of long term commitments that they will be supporting, so that they can really think without too much pressure about what they want to do, and some other part of the activity which then could be very directly linked to projects. Another thing which I could witness by practicing evaluation which is also very important in particular if you keep in mind excellence: excellence is not something which comes from outside, but is also something which is very much felt in the lab itself or in the institution itself. The evaluation has really three parts. One part is this preparation period where people are just between themselves. The evaluators have not yet shown up, maybe they have more or less defined what kind of documents they would like to receive, but the people in the research structure are really facing the problem of preparing their documentation but also, they have the responsibility of choosing what will be their program for the future. So this part should not be missed. The phase during which people prepare documents for evaluators, is a very privileged moment, because it forces to internal discussion: where people are, what will be their priorities, basically whether they will be very ambitious, a little bit ambitious or not ambitious at all, etc. As this is an important moment, people should be given enough time to prepare this. The second part of course, the time of the evaluation itself where the evaluators and the people evaluated are confronted, and the last part, which should not be missed of course, is the moment where the evaluators give their opinion and how do you implement some of the recommendations or you refuse to implement the recommendations, anyway this kind of final interaction where the institution itself responds to the evaluation. For research structures I tend to be extremely critical with the idea of using systematically impact factors because very often the quantitative feeling you get from this impact factors quickly supersedes the thing which I think for me should be dominating, namely the quality and qualitative statements. Coming now to the last stage of evaluation, which is typically to look globally at a discipline, in a region, in a country, it seems to me one has to be very careful. What is a discipline? Of course, universities recognize some disciplines because of the histories behind them, but there are also emerging disciplines. It is very important at some stage that one accepts the idea that there will be some new disciplines showing up, that at some critical times new science is coming up by bringing together several disciplines, and so on. This is something, which has been very much of concern to the EPSRC, the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council in the UK. They decided to do a very systematic evaluation of their disciplines, and when they were finished the first round, they realized that by having divided science into physics, chemistry, computer science, mathematics, actually they missed some of the most the important part of their activities. Of course they were a bit shocked because maybe it meant that some experts who have been in charge of some disciplines should have looked more at the boundary but actually that was not so easy. For the part I was in charge of namely mathematics, where we wanted to look at the boundary with the computer science, we realized that some of the universities had agreed on doing so, but some others refused because they said we have already been evaluated for computer

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science, and they did not want to be evaluated twice. So, when you define a territory, you have to be very careful not missing some very important territory beside it. Another point which is also very important is not to do too much evaluation: if you ask people to write reports too often they start not to write reports carefully, and that is the worst. I already mentioned that it is very important to have the evaluators involved when defining how you want to do the evaluation. It is really important to leave them this intellectual autonomy, and I must say that most of the time if you do this at the level of the country, the best way is to have no nationals involved. So this was the case for Portugal, this was also the case for the UK, and I must say that I am presently in a very difficult battle with Australian people because in the format they have proposed, there are many more nationals that non-national people in the committee and I feel it is not the right way of doing things. As I mentioned, the preparatory phase is extremely important and of course the choice of the team which is given the responsibility of doing this preparation, is something which has to be thought very carefully, and I must say that the success depends very much on this. 5. Conclusion So now, the key point of course is how do you take into account these new expectations and you don’t want to frustrate people too much? How you do the follow-up is a non trivial thing. I want to point out that if you are involved in evaluation, it is a very good way of creating some kind of common culture and common references. It is very important also in this process that you give an opportunity of having several points of view expressed. By doing so, it could really prepare a group of scientists to look into different ways research can be organized. I am thinking about French people who believe that the French way of organizing research is the best in the world, and they never looked at how it is organized elsewhere. That is Franco-French comment. The final point, of course, is that scientists should not forget that they are doing their work in relation with the society and producing this kind of evaluation could be, should be a very important moment also for scientists to prepare themselves to this relation to the society at large. Thank you very much. J.-P. Connerade — So thank you very much Jean-Pierre for the very perceptive account of how difficult it is to evaluate in an already international context. Now, by observing strict time, we have few moments for some discussion of these three presentations. I hope you have them all in mind. They were three very clear presentations, I think covering most of the themes which are important in the management of science, if you like, in the government of science.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Scientific Studies and Careers for Women in Tunisia9 Oum Kalthoum BEN HASSINE Professor at the Faculty of Sciences of Tunisia President of the Association “Women and the Sciences” Abstract. Women have gained access to education in Tunisia more recently than Western countries. They more or less catch up but are suffering the same kind of problems: weak diversification of scientific careers, concentration of women in a limited number of scientific professions, higher unemployment rate. One remedy would be to insure parity in the juries for examinations.

At present, it is widely accepted that the full access of women to education confers upon them the status of agents of economic and social change. In fact, education is a human right indispensable to progress in all areas. This is why the program of action adopted in Beijing in 1995 during the Fourth World Conference on Women identified the universal and equal access of women to education and training as a critical area requiring priority action by governments and the international community. That is how today, certain criteria, such as the literacy rate and the percentage of children in fulltime education according to gender, constitute indicators of human development, for education is a prerequisite for sustainable development, which cannot be accomplished without the equal and full participation of women. To secure their futures, countries need the capabilities and creativity of all of their citizens. This is all the more true when it comes to access to the sciences and to technology, which are both generators of wealth and thus indispensable to development. Economic development depends on the acquisition and mastery of scientific and technological knowledge. The latter represents the key to success in a time when competition between nations is based on intelligence. In this context, the full and equal participation of women in the sciences provides, first, for an increase of the human scientific potential of the country and, second, for a greater diversity in the development of scientific knowledge and the formulation of new ethical norms for science and technology. Nevertheless, access to the sciences depends on the right to education. Tunisian women acquired this right in 1956 when one of the first measures taken by an independent Tunisia was the promulgation of the law of personal status. Among these measures, the establishment of free and compulsory schooling allowed the realization of significant progress in terms of girls’ access to all levels of education, including university, of which today the quantitative results are indisputable. Tunisia is in fact unique among Arab-Muslim countries for the legal status of women and the integration of women into the economy and society. 9

Original text in French, translated in English.

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A look at recent statistical data of percentages of students according to gender reveals that in recent years it is in fact women who have been responsible for the growth of the total university population, since certain faculties (medicine, law) and several tracks (medicine, biological sciences) have seen a significant increase of women students. Improvements in the percentage of children in full-time education have, in fact, gone hand in hand with a progressive reduction of the gap between girls and boys to the girls’ advantage, such that in universities today girls represent approximately 57% of the student body. Compared to their counterparts in Mediterranean countries where free and compulsory schooling for girls is a relatively long-established fact, Tunisian girls have, since they acquired access to education, mostly caught up. They are today more numerous in high schools and in universities, generally better students, and more persevering in their studies. (For the sake of comparison, in France, female students make up approximately 56% of the total student population.) However, despite this considerable breakthrough, girls still hesitate—in Tunisia as well as in most countries, including developed countries—to choose a course of study in technology or the sciences. Most women still opt for the humanities. Looking at all the analyses of recent statistical data (2000-2004) it can be seen that in Tunisia the presence of women in the scientific tracks has definitely increased in recent years. More young women, simply put, are studying science. Nevertheless, their number varies considerably from one track to the next, the highest percentages being recorded in the hard sciences (in secondary school), and in medicine and life sciences (in universities) [3]. This unequal specialization is, in large part, already determined by secondary school, where math and science act as filters and where the choices made by girls, who are fewer in number in the most valued baccalaureats, limit their study and career options [8]. This has an impact on the directions taken by female students in higher education, where one finds the same tendency, and where girls are underrepresented in certain technical and scientific tracks (engineering, physics, math, etc.). Indeed, even those—and there are many of them—who in high school tend toward the track of hard sciences go on to study medical and life sciences (female students representing more than 60% of the total number of students in medical and biological sciences). This situation is not specific to Tunisia (where schooling for all girls, and their access to higher education, are relatively recent accomplishments), for the slow integration of women into the sciences is widely shared, including in developed countries, where, although schooling and access to universities for girls are long established, the opening of scientific education to women is a recent conquest (Hermann in [10]). In France, as in Tunisia, girls are better represented in the various levels of education (girls representing more than 56% of the total number of students in France), and get better results than boys, but their tendencies don’t reflect their capabilities, for the majority of girls tend toward the humanities and social sciences (72.7%), and those who do choose science find themselves in the tracks of life sciences and health sciences (61.7% in medicine), which is judged very suitable for them (Hermann in [10]), since women seem to aspire to help, nurse, and care for others or even to teach, inform, and communicate… in short, activities that are traditionally considered feminine. The problem of the disparities between men and women in the sciences is thus to be found in all countries. Generally speaking, girls tend less than boys toward certain scientific and technical tracks and abandon training that offers better access to the job

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market, such as technical, computer, or engineering training, the recruitment for which, however, is considered to be particularly important for development [12]. According to certain studies and investigations conducted especially on the northern side of the Mediterranean [11], the unequal distribution of girls in the various scientific tracks is directly related to their own motives and to the image they have of these professions, which are different from those of boys. Boys are more interested in job opportunities, in hoped-for remuneration, and in prestige. Girls are looking more for social usefulness. Moreover, students often have a strong positive image of tracks that lead to more practical opportunities associated with professions (engineer, doctor, lawyer, journalist) which appear to them to be clearly defined, and which often provoke either a strong attraction (doctor, for girls) or a strong rejection (engineer, also for girls). On the other hand, for the more “generalist” tracks, such as sciences and humanities, the image seems more vague—or still more stereotyped, in that the opportunities seem at the same time fewer, less well-remunerated, less varied, and essentially geared toward teaching for humanities and research for science. Finally, there’s a demand, more frequent when it comes to girls, for a professional life that is compatible with family life, which is felt to be especially difficult in the professions of engineer and researcher. The consequences of all the above can be summarized as follows: − a weak diversification of scientific careers for women − the concentration of women in a limited number of scientific professions − a higher unemployment rate for young job-seekers who find the sectors for which their qualifications suit them already full. In Tunisia, where the law favors male-female parity on all levels and is well ahead of other countries, and where the collective conventions of employment reserve the same treatment for both sexes, an analysis of the published studies—mainly by CREDIF—on the question of the employment of women revealed that they occupy an unequal position in comparison with men on the job market, principally because of the lack of diversification in their training and professional qualifications [5]. This situation, as emphasized by the European Commission, is neither equitable, for women find themselves kept from the best jobs, in terms of pay, prestige, and social responsibilities—nor effective, for it deprives our societies of a part of their intellectual resources—nor efficient, for, to train many women at the highest level and then not use their skills is a waste. To this must be added the fact that women are absent from the spheres of power and have therefore little influence on scientific policies that determine the larger paths countries will take. Today, more than ever, sustainable development depends on equity in the sciences. This will not, however, be established until the talents of both men and women are made use of. In this context, the similarities revealed between France and Tunisia concerning the place of women in the sciences should constitute an important argument for building a true egalitarian partnership in the Mediterranean, renewed and reinforced. Indeed, the common future of this region requires cooperation that will encourage equal opportunities [4]. At a time when “commercial partnership and exchange” is strongly advocated, cooperation is necessary to ensure that neither side of the Mediterranean excludes its female citizens. To that end, the formation of a Mediterranean group qualified in the

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matter of equality in the sciences, along the model of the Helsinki Group for Europe, could constitute the most important link between the northern and southern sides of the Mediterranean. In conclusion, the development, on the periphery of the Mediterranean, of cooperative programs ensuring the promotion of equality between men and women through the exchange of positive experiences north/south and south/north, and best practices, could, as Edgar Morin put it so well, prevent Europe from closing in on itself [4]. Further reading [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11]

[12] [13]

Association Femmes et Sciences, Femmes dans les métiers scientifiques et techniques, Actes du Colloque organisé le 17 novembre 2001, Ministère de la Recherche à Paris, 2001. O.K. Ben Hassine, Femmes en Sciences : obstacles, défis et enjeux, Revue tunisienne des sciences sociales 118 (1999), , Pub du CERES, 11-26. O.K. Ben Hassine, La place de la femme tunisienne dans les sciences : analyse de la situation actuelle et perspectives de développement, Afkaronline Edit., 2004, 81-101 et sur le site : www.afkaronline.org. O.K. Ben Hassine, Femmes, Education, Sciences et Culture; in Proceedings of the Mediterranean Forum Conference «Women, Agents of change, A Mediterranean Perspective (Lugano, Suisse, 13-15 février 2004), 2004. O.K. Ben Hassine, Participation des femmes tunisiennes au développement : Etat des lieux de leur intégration au marché du travail; Afkaronline sur le site : www.afkaronline.org, 2004. O.K. Ben Hassine, Les Femmes dans les Sciences exactes : une approche comparée, Communication présentée au CREDIF lors de la célébration de la journée internationale de la femme le 12 mars 2004, 2004. O.K. Ben Hassine, Les Femmes dans les Sciences exactes : le point de la situation, Info-CREDIF 31 (2005). O.K. Ben Hassine, Les technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) et les femmes tunisiennes : enjeux et actions, Afkaronline sur le site : www.afkaronline.org, 2005. Commission européenne, Women and science: Making change happen, Proceedings of the Conference, Bruxelles 3-4 avril 2000, 2005 Hulin N., Les Femmes et l’enseignement scientifique, collection «Science, histoire et Société», Edit. Presses Universitaires de France, 2002. Accès des jeunes femmes aux études universitaires scientifiques et techniques : recherche commanditée par la Communauté Française et le Fonds social européen, menée par l’Institut de Sociologie et la Faculté des sciences de l’ULB sous la direction de M. Ala-luf et P. Marage, Newtonia (Rechercheaction in Faits & Gestes, 2004), http://www.egalite.cfwb.be ; http://ulb.ac.be/newtonia. Les études et les carrières scientifiques au féminin : Débats & Recherches en Communauté française Wallonie Bruxelles, Faits & Gestes 12 (2004), Site internet : www.cfwb.be. C. Solar, Savoirs des femmes et développement durable, Colloque International « Femmes, Sciences et technologie » ;(Tunis, 20-22 novembre 1997), 1997.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Women in Science and their Role to Advance the Societies from the South10 Nora BERRAH Physics Department, Western Michigan University, USA Abstract. The past century has witnessed the scientific contributions of women rise significantly in many areas of science and in many parts of the world. We hope that in the new century this positive trend will continue, enabling increased numbers and retention of women in the sciences and, in addition, facilitating the leadership of women at all levels of academia, national laboratories, and industry.

Progress in the 21st century is taking the form of globalization in many areas, particularly in the fields of research and industry. Any such globalization can be achieved successfully only with the utilization, collaboration and mutual respect of all partners involved, regardless of race, religion or gender. The status of women in science has improved tremendously since the 1950’s. We now have female faculty in scientific departments, albeit in small numbers (between 5%-10% in physics, the lowest percentage in the sciences, and about 40% in biology). Women are not generally found in leadership positions such as Chairperson, Dean, Provost, Group Leaders or CEOs of companies, although a few (less than 1%) has achieved that role. I will present in this brief article my experience and perspective as a female physicist who grew up in a country from the South, Algeria and who earned a “Diplome d’études superieures” (bachelor of Sciences degree) in theoretical physics before pursuing a PhD in atomic and molecular physics in the USA. My experience in Algeria as a physics student at the University of Bab Ezzouar in Algiers was very positive. In fact, in 1980 Algeria had about 40% female physics students compared to less than 5% in the US, most of which were foreigners. In Algiers in 1979, I had one female professor but a few female Teaching Assistants. The present status in Algeria consists of 10%-15% of female professors and 40% of graduate students. I believe that North African countries benefited from the French role model provided by Dr. Marie Curie, and thus female scientists or students willing to pursue a career in science are not seen as oddities and have always been well accepted by the establishment as well as the rest of society. I have also been fortunate to have had a very positive experience while training as a PhD student at the University of Virginia, as a postdoc at Argonne National Laboratory and as a faculty at Western Michigan University where I hold a University Distinguished Professor of Physics position. I am also fortunate to be in an institution that truly believes in equality for the genders and the races and is an equal opportunity 10

Original text in English.

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employer. Presently, the president and the provost are both female. Three years ago, the president was African American, and the Dean of my college, Arts and Sciences, was a female. Other institutions also have diversified pools in their leadership positions but much remains to be done, not just in the societies of the South, which I think are more progressive professionally than is thought, but throughout the world. I believe that in order to retain and increase the number of women in science, we need to recognize and accept the fact that female needs can be different than those of the male. The most important difference that comes to mind is motherhood. During a woman’s career, the natural wish to become a mother may arise. Institutions should amend the present system in order to have this or other important needs met. This is a fundamental compromise that should be done for the sake of respecting differences. Tenure timetables should be allowed to stop for 1-2 years in academia, and industries should permit women to take a maternity leave of at least 3 months, without any penalty of losing one’s position or role in the work place. This is unfortunately still a problem in most societies of the North/Western countries with only a few exceptions, such as Sweden. I believe that there are a number of important factors that would enable an increase of women in science. Parental as well as teacher encouragement at all educational levels from kindergarten to high school and from college to graduate school are crucial. Teachers should make every effort to target and include women who have the abilities and interest in all technical and scientific activities that school offers. In my case, my math teacher targeted me in middle school and channeled me to the math/physics high school branch. I was planning to go to the biology branch. Constant reassurance boosts women’s confidence when they enter a male dominated field. The media could play a positive role to represent and portray successful scientific women. By and large, however, this is not presently the case in the US where female scientists are generally portrayed as unattractive, unpopular or incompetent while their male counterparts play the role of hero. These media portrayals are bound to perpetuate the perception that women are not cut out to be scientists and we need to insure that movies as well as documentaries illustrate prominent women in science as well as show collaborative efforts between men and women in laboratories where women play a significant role in the achievements of scientific breakthroughs. We all have a responsibility to inform and educate the media about the new realities by showcasing successful women scientists of today. Role models are very important, and thus institutions ought to hire competent females at all levels, from assistant professors to full professors as well as in leadership positions such as Chairs, Deans, Provost, President, CEO, etc. Although we live an era where affirmative action is being debated, my personal position is that for equal qualifications, institutions should give priority to female until the ratio of women to men increases. The debate over what constitutes an acceptable ratio is still inconclusive; however, suffice it to say that 10% and below is unacceptable in this day and age and 50% may be a positive goal to try to achieve. My general recommendations to increase and retain women in the sciences are the following: 1.

The workplace (Universities, laboratories, industries…) needs to accommodate female scientists by allowing flexible schedules that will permit their needs to be fulfilled. This doesn’t have to be exclusively for women and indeed should be a general, thoughtful policy that would keep any scientist happy.

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2.

3. 4.

5. 6.

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The workplace should designate mentors to help new recruits to learn about how to become a successful scientist. As senior scientists know, success is linked not just to ones scientific abilities but also to understanding workplace policies. The mentoring often happens naturally among men, but not generally between men and women and there are not enough female scientists to take on that role. Thus, senior male scientists should take it upon themselves to mentor junior scientists, both male and female. The workplace should support all its new young employees with financial start-up packages to facilitate rapid successful research programs. The workplace should not overload its new employees with services that will hamper the research endeavors of its scientists. This occurs mostly in universities where services are part of faculty responsibilities and in general, women tend to be assigned more than their share of services to the department, college and university. Release time in the form of sabbaticals is extremely important to keep learning new techniques and to broaden one’s research portfolio. The workplace should promote competent women at all levels when they deserve it so that they may play a role model for new generations of scientists. My recommendations to thesis advisors are the following:

1.

2.

Mentor your students closely and give them responsibilities. Ensure that female students feel part of the group and are not mistreated in any way by their male colleagues. People’s sensitivities vary, and we all have to be alert to differences and treat students and colleagues with respect and sensitivity. Find means to allow students to travel to national and international conferences to present their work. This will give them a broad perspective of the scientific world as well as motivate them to increase their research efforts and stay in the field.

My recommendations to PhD students who would like to be in charge of an independent research program are the following: 1.

2. 3. 4.

It is important to have one or two postdoctoral positions in different laboratories to broaden and deepen one’s ability to develop a research program. The choice of a permanent position needs to be done carefully since workplaces vary with respect to their level of commitment and support to their employees. For large scale science, or for scientists of “users” facilities, chose collaborators cautiously as failed collaborations can be destructive in many ways. Participate to national and international workshops that guide and teach strategies to overcome conflicts in the workplace. Try to resolve any conflicts in the workplace amicably by trying to understand the nature of conflicts when they arise. Most conflicts are due to competition and that competition occurs among men, between men and women, and among women. Conflicts should not be taken personally and should not be interpreted necessarily to be due to gender or prejudice issues, although this sometimes can be the case. Human nature is not perfect and we need to deal with it intelligently by trying to put scientific goals ahead of the day to day irritations due to competition, sexism, and prejudice. Clear communication is key, compromise among all parties is essential and if all fails, it can be necessary to involve the workplace supervisor/director/Dean/Provost or President. Do not accept unacceptable

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compromises that you can not live with if you think rationally that they are biased and unjust. In conclusion, I believe that all scientists have the responsibility to advance all societies. Since women represent about half of the population, we all need to make strong efforts to encourage them, include them and facilitate their integration and promotion as scientists. In particular, women of the South can and should play a key role in their societies in order to allow their societies to advance and catch-up with their Northern counterparts. The latter should continue and even increase their efforts in creating more exchange and training programs between the North and the South in order to bring about a scientific balance that may make important contributions to economic and political stability.

Session 2 Energy for Development Convener: Juan Antonio RUBIO Director of CIEMAT, Madrid

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Novel Energies for the Future11 Carlo RUBBIA 1984 Nobel Prize in Physics Former Director General of CERN Abstract. Nowadays, energy is a severe problem for the mankind, not only because of the population explosion but also because human beings are calling for less poverty and better life. Fossil energies are limited and pose severe problems. New forms of energy can be expected from solar energy and from nonproliferating nuclear energy in various forms (Thorium cycle fission, nuclear fusion). Developed countries are urged to largely invest in the development of these new forms of energy, as this is their duty for the whole mankind.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for having invited me to give a presentation here today. I have to say, that I was hoping to leave the presentation for solar energy to one of the speakers who is not here today. Now, of course it’s very hard for me to change a presentation like this at the last minute, so I apologize from the beginning for the fact that maybe someone may find this presentation being too shifted towards nuclear rather than solar energy. Juan Antonio Rubio is going to discuss the question of solar energy in Spain, he is a person who is rather involved on the practical industrial application of solar energy, but I believe there was also space for a fundamental contribution on that matter. Solar energy was discovered already by Archimedes 2,000 years ago, when he tried to fight against the ships of the Romans. We checked that and we found indeed that could have been done: the numbers are such that he could have thrown them up. But the real problem now is not so much to know what the basic physics are but about the ability to produce an industrial amount of this energy and this is certainly something which is new to us. 1. The energy problems 1.1. The population explosion So let me start my presentation. We will discuss a few general subjects and then I will get on into the practical problems. Now, first of all, the underlying problem to everything we are doing today is the problem of the explosion of the populations and so it is worthwhile to ask ourselves why we have this and what are the reasons for the population to explode so quickly. You can see on Figure 1 a diagram which explains today’s thinking of what is the demographic transition. This is not an exponential explosion. It was considered an exponential explosion in the good old days of the Club of Rome (with Peccei et al.) but now we understand things in a very different way. 11

Transcription from oral in English.

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What we understand about this is that we are going through a number of phases in the human kind. In the first phase, we have high rates of birth and high death rates. So both are very large and balanced obviously, with the result that you find that you sit on a very low level of population, which is the standard level prior to the present demographic transition.

Figure 1. The demographic transition

Then, the death rate has decreased thanks to medicine, to better health, to more food, so people live better and better and the life expectancy, which was something like 29-30 years in the times of the Romans, is developing into something which is 70 to 80 years now and therefore very much larger. Surprisingly enough the birth rate continues to be high because this is a part of the society and this is the way it works. So we have declining death rate but a continuing high birth rate. The next step is that also the birth rate becomes under control: people realize that there are various different ways to organize society other than making children, that such a rate is not longer a justified situation, and therefore also the birth rate decreases, but it comes after, later, because this is a decision while the other one is fact of life. Finally, we come back with another situation in which both the death rate and birth rate are very small and presumably equal. But then, however, what is left over is an enormous change of population. This enormous change of the population has been estimated now by many models and many arguments and is in the order of 10 to12 billion people. This will occur across the next 50-100 years with a transition which will be different between rich countries and poor countries. Developing countries are still in the early stages of this process while in the fully rich countries the birth rate is in fact much smaller compared to the death rate. Just to give you a feeling of this, let’s take a look at numbers: in 1700 we were 600 million, in 1800 we became 930 million, and in 1900 we were 1.6 billion, in 1950 we were 2.4 billion—1950 for many of us was like yesterday—, in 1985 we were 5 billions and in 2020 we will be 8 billions. So we are now dealing with an explosive population growth which is today in the order of 90 million new people per year. 90 million is a very large number. The whole of the European Union of 25 countries are 300 million people, which means that in 3 and half years you make another European Union again. Everybody agrees on the fact that the future progress of mankind will be

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impossible without energy. With that many people and with no energy, you have really a very serious problem, and therefore my conclusion is that energy is necessary to preserve mankind: without such a thing we would not be able to preserve steadily mankind. It would be a disaster. 1.2. Energy and Human Life The second point is to understand a bit better what the situation is for the individual energy consumption. In the very advanced countries, it has increased a hundred fold since the beginning of history. The various stages of development have brought increasing energy consumption. In the present moment, today, each of us is producing of the order of 100 kg of CO2 per day. Incidentally I have to tell you that each car is producing 4 times its weight of CO2 for every year. So when you look at your car, think that every year there will be 4 times as much the weight of the car in terms of CO 2. And when you think that there are about a billion cars, you know what the problem is. On a more philosophical level, you could ask yourself what is the situation about the equivalent per year and you can see on Figure 2 a plot showing Egypt, Greece, Rome, the beginning of Christian era, the discovery of America, and then we have the industrial revolution and suddenly the industrial revolution has created a demand of fossil energy which has been accumulated for millions of years. Today in one year we are recovering roughly the amount of raw material of the fossils which is produced in one million year. So one million year to build it up and one year to burn it.

Figure 2.

Of course, everybody knows the situation; the fossil energy will be over in a certain moment. With some 12 billion people hanging there in this planet, there will be a question in front of us: Which primary energy source will be our alternative solution?

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Now we know also that energy consumption per person now is incrementing by more than 2 per cent per year, and we know that it is fossil dominated, and we also know that all the forecast say that in the next 30 years or so, unless something extraordinary happens, the fossils will still continue to produce the major fraction of energy used by the mankind. Now the real question is: And what after that? And whether it will be today, tomorrow, or at a time we are not going to be there, but surely the mankind intends to continue beyond that. But how will mankind continue to live beyond the exploitation of the fossils phase of its own development? 1.3. Energy and Poverty Another important point I would like to mention is: energy and poverty. There is a huge correlation between lack of energy and poverty. 1.6 billion people, a quarter of the current world population, are without electricity. And living without electricity is equivalent to be totally unable to engage oneself in any activity of socio-economic value whatsoever, because without electricity you are really isolated from the modern world, although living in the same planet, 1.6 billion people! 2.4 billion people rely almost exclusively on traditional energy sources. They have no energy which is delivered to them, they pick up the pieces of wood, they burn the wood and with they start cooking the food or whatever they need to do. Of the 6 billion people about one half live in poverty and out of this 1/5 are severely undernourished. The rest, us, live in comfort and health. These poor people are concentrated mainly in the developing countries. One can notice a tremendous improvement in China but you can see that India is quite a problem as well as Africa. Another remark should be made here: it is the responsibility of the technologically advanced countries to bring about solutions and show the way to those which need it most. If we are not able ourselves to developing cheap and abundant energy for everyone, the developing countries themselves will be unable to develop a system of responsibility. It is up to us to use the gift that we were given in terms of science and technology and transform this gift in a practical system which is not a star-war type of solution but something simple enough so the people in the emerging countries could be able to develop and improve their conditions of life. New energy, how soon? I have been given this talk for 30 minutes. During this time 5,000 new people have entered in the world, at the rate of 3 people per second, mostly in the developing countries, and they will need plenty of energy to survive decently. At the present consumption level, our reserves correspond to a duration of the order 230 years for coal, 45 for oil, 63 for gas and 54 for nuclear. The longevity of the survival of the fossil era will be affected on the one hand by the discovery of new exploitable resources strongly depending on the price, and on the other hand by the inevitable growth of the world population and their standard of living. So it is really difficult to see what the longevity will be. Obviously increased prices allow having more oil, but more people require more oil. One also has to take into account the long lead time for the massive development of some new energy sources, and the end of the fossil era may be on sight: 40-30 years is not a long time in order to turn around a complicated, expensive and immense problem, which is the one of generating new energy, and the problem of oil is only the first beginning. In this situation we have a newcomer, which is an important and a serious newcomer: the climatic changes. The consumption of fossil may be prematurely curbed by environmental disruption. It may well be that we won’t be allowed to burn all the

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coal which is there to be burnt, all the oil which is there to be burnt, because we may find that it changes the climate: the recent example of the major disaster of Katrina has probably something to do with the increased strength and the development of extreme events, which may be related to climatic changes. 1.4. Climatic Changes? As a physicist, I’d like to tell also to people who are not physicists another important point: the climatic effect of combustion of fossil fuel produces 100 times greater energy captured than the combustion itself produces, due to the incremental sub-solar radiation. In other words, we take one piece of coal, one Kg of coal, and we burn it and we ask ourselves what is the integrated solar heated effect? It’s 100 times bigger in terms of green house effect. This is due the fact that CO 2 emitted has a much longer life time and therefore integrating over this time, the effects produced represent effectively 100 times more solar power trapped inside the planet, in addition of the 1 which was done by us by the explicit act of burning. Doubling the preindusrial concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere (a very serious perturbation) will occur after the extraction 1,000 billion tons of fossil carbon. We are presently facing a green house effect with dominating CO2, which is doubling within roughly 50 to 75 years, depending on how things are going. It is generally believed that major technology changes must occur before that, and that in order to modify the present traditional energy pattern, a formula for new research and development will be necessary. So research and development are the only way to come out of this mess, like it has been in all the other fields, medicine, health, industrial revolution, mobility, communication. They all depended on the ability to make a formidable effort in research and development. It should be the same in the case of energy, but I’m afraid that it is not what happens today. New dominant sources are needed in order to reconcile the huge energy demand growing rapidly, especially in the developing countries with an unacceptable climatic impact due to the reduced warming up as I mentioned. 1.5. Energy and GDP Now let us look here at some of the numbers which indicate the present situation. In Figure 3, I plot the energy spent in Giga Joule per capita as a function of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. So the horizontal axis is representing the money we earn per capita, and the vertical one represents the energy produced in number of Giga Joule, which we use mostly in terms of fossils. Let’s look at what you find: first of all, the US are reaching some kind of stable situation but at a rather high level, above all the other countries. Europeans, Japan, Australia are getting quite close but not quite as high as the US, both in terms of work and in terms of other possibilities. But you can find huge number of people: China, India, Brazil, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, which start all to be very tall in GDP per capita and are very energetic users. We know that the GDP per capita of these countries has certainly to go up. India, China have 10% increase per year. And since this is a universal curve, it all makes us to think that energy consumption will be for all in the same track of GDP. And the argument is simple: anything that you can buy, you can create but all needs energy and the energy has to be provided. In fact you can see in the case of China: in 1995, for a total of 1,000 TWh of energy produced, the source was hydro 8%, oil 6%, nuclear 1%,

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gas zero, and coal 75%. In 2020, 4 times more energy needs to be produced and we still are going to have 68% of coal and we are going to have very tiny renewable energy, 0.3%, a bit of more gas, a bit of more nuclear, a bit more oil,. But the most important thing on both graphs is the lack of a factor of 4 overall energy production which will have somehow to be discovered, to be used. This is an indication that there is a clear correlation between energy consumption that lead to an explosion of demand in the developing economy, a phenomenon that has been seen in China and in India.

Figure 3. Energy consumption as a function of GDP

1.6. New Energies, which Ones? Now, in the present situation it is perfectly normal as physicists to ask ourselves where do we have energy? Energy is a physical quantity, is a physical process, so physicists should know better than anybody else what it means, where to get these energies. There are only two natural resources: which have the capability in the long term to provide the energetic survival of the mankind, other sources will not have the capability to maintain the level of development we had. Only two elements, two forces are the sources: world energetic consumption today is less than 1/10,000 of what is available on the surface of the earth in sunny countries. If adequately exploited, solar energy— this is a hypothetical statement, which is not proven by any practical realization at the moment, J.A. Rubio will tell some more about solar energy in general—, but adequately exploited, this energy may provide enough energy for the mankind. This comes in the fact of 1 in 10,000 in sunny area will be enough to give us enough energy to run the world today. The other possibility is the nuclear energy, but new nuclear energy: we know that nuclear energy today is 6% of the primary energy of the planet, and we also know that energy consumption in the planet goes up by 2% per year that means that in 3 years we

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can wipe out the contribution of the actual nuclear because with this amount of nuclear, we are 3 years downstream of ordinary consumption. This is clearly too little. We also know that for instance the Kyoto protocol has 70 years shift in its effect, so these kinds of numbers are obviously too small to make a real change. Therefore if you want to have nuclear energy that is capable to give you half of the total energy, the other half being given by solar, and remembering that developing countries are growing like mad, obviously you have to say that the present nuclear energy is not adequate. In fact I already told you that the present nuclear energy is based on the Uranium 235, which is only 0.71% of the total energy contained in Uranium, and there is not more nuclear energy than there is oil at the first level. However, natural Uranium, Thorium could go under fission of a different nature and Lithium, which could go under fusion, are adequate for many thousands of years at several times at the present rate of consumption. So either new nuclear or solar are the only two cards we have. It’s unlikely that any stable long term development of mankind will be possible without both of them. There is no choice without one or the other. If you are standing in the middle of the Sahara you are not going to build a reactor, you are going to put a piece of sunny solar system, but if you are in Hamburg, Germany, then presumably you are going to have a hard time to pick up enough sun from there to go with it. So this nuclear energy is not today’s nuclear and this solar energy is not today’s solar. Completely new technology must be developed and that means that physicists and in general scientists should come in first, followed by industrialists to change the situation and the time we have is very short. 2. Novel Forms of Solar Energy Today, known renewable energy sources cover only 2.3% of the primary energy consumption. So, present nuclear, present hydro, present renewable energy is a footnote to the energy business. And in order to modify significantly such a pattern that is predominant, new technology must be developed. There is not conspiracy against renewable energy, it’s just that at the present circumstances they seem not to fly as they should. Let me give you some example of areas in which new development could be important: on Figure 4, I show some example of solar mirrors, in Italy, other devices that J.A. Rubio will talk about, which is solar power in Spain, and finally another important thing which is “biomass”. This can be used in certain ways to produce energy accordingly. All those things are in fact very much in the beginning of development and in fact new business could be developed.

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Figure 4.

So let me briefly touch the new solar energy. There is one fact: for one square meter of good location, South Morocco or places like that, it “rains” yearly an equivalent of 25 cm of oil. So it’s an enormous amount of energy that the sun gives us, our problem is not how much energy there is, but that we are not capable to use it, because at the end of every year, if you look around at any piece of land, you find that on any square meter there is not one nice barrel of oil ready to be used. There are various ways of using that energy: it can either be directly collected, eventually with concentrating mirrors or alternatively converted, although with a lower efficiency, into wind, biomass, hydro or photovoltaic, but none of these processes is used correctly so far. It’s not a conspiracy, there are two reasons why. One is the cost. The cheapest energy is known to be the mostly used energy and the fact the oil is going up is in favour to renewable energy (if not of the consumer!). Evidently the energy choice is a financial choice. The politicians can say what they want, the law of economics is much stronger: the energy that will come forward will always be the one that gives the biggest benefit in terms of financial terms to those people who have the strengths and the possibility to buy and invest. The second point is typical of renewable energy: the energy is produced only when the source is available and not whenever needed. This is the problem. Today we are in the middle of the night, there is no photovoltaic electricity to use. Tomorrow we can go there and there is no wind, so what do we do? Do we close the system? And so the energy produced by solar in any form, directly or indirectly, is normally very dependent on the moment, with the variability, which is incompatible with today’s rules. For instance I don’t see Lufthansa or any other company able to fly on solar energy because you can’t imagine the situation in which there is a cloud covering your solar system and you close the energy supply and so forth. In order to overcome these limitations, new technological developments are vigorously pursued in several countries in order to (1) reduce the cost to an acceptable level and (2) to introduce a thermal storage between the solar source and the application and J.A. Rubio will say more later on.

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Today, the only renewable energy that is winning is hydro for two reasons. First of all because hydro is sufficiently cheap, so to make energy you can do it with a cost that is compatible with that system, but also because you have a dam, a lake, in other words a possibility of separating the process of natural accumulation which in this case is rain, from the necessity to produce energy when you need it. So in my view a fundamental argument in favour of any form of energy to become a winner: it has to have low cost and it has to be available when you need it, not when it turns out to be possible to choose it. An example of new forms of energy using this concept of storage and being developed, is solar fields that are concentrating solar light into mirrors, see Figure 5. One mirror is producing a liquid which is hot in one side, cold in the other and the two systems are entirely separated. When there is sun you use the hot storage, when there is no sun you are going to use the cold storage which you have saved and therefore the combined alternator can operate in a way that is totally decoupled from the system, provided that the storage is pretty good and you see very quickly that it is. Concentrating Solar field Hot Storage (≈ 550 °C)

Cold Storage (≈ 290 °C)

Turbine and alternator

Figure 5.

On Figure 6, you can see a very important example of various sizes of systems for the storage of objects carrying energy: compressed hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, compressed CH4, methanol and gasoline and on the left, the thermal storage which is purely thermal. You see that the two sides are not very different, this is for the same stored energy. But, one has to be careful: heat combusts once in a life time, while the other thermal system is in fact something that can occur periodically. In other words, you recover the thermal, but you don’t recover the other. Let me give you some numbers: one mega watt hour of thermal energy can be stored in 5 meter cubic of molten salt, which is extremely good. Another way to compare thermal storage efficiency is gravitation (water coming down of a dam): it turns out that the storage thermal efficiency is equivalent to a gravitational water drop of 72 km!

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Figure 6. Solar collection with storage

So in the case of solar energy which we can store, we are talking about some sort of grand substitution, which you do in any application or process. As shown in Figure 7, today, in a standard system, you are using fossil fuel, you put oil into a boiler and heat up this liquid and this is used in a steam generator, to produce electricity, it could also be production of paper, it could be anything you want in which you heat, you take the flame, 95% of the oil is burnt and produces its heat in the field of application. Solar energy can be used for heating two tanks, as in Figure 5, and the two tanks replace the tanks that stored the fossil unit but everything else is the same. So there is a total decoupling between this part and the second part of the application, which remains the same. People should know more in principle whether they use oil which is burnt from a tank or when they use hot liquid which is accumulated from a source of sunshine.

Figure 7. The “grand” substitution

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To conclude this point, let’s look at Figure 8, which shows the whole planet: the green areas are the ones which receive most of sunshine and you can see that there are plenty of areas around the world and the scale on the left gives the number of GW.hour/Km2 per year. This little spot, indicated in red, is the land area theoretically required, by concentrating solar power, to supply the total expected world electricity demand of 35,000 Terawatt-hour per year in 2050. So there is clear evidence that you invented an intelligent and useful system which can make use of this energy in a sensible way.

Figure 8. Concentrating solar power (CSP)

Spreading this little white spot over the large green areas is not easy, but if you do that I believe that you will be able to have the full electricity support by 2050. This is absolutely remarkable. Of course not all electricity would be done in this way. 3. Novel Forms of Nuclear Energy So let me spend a bit of more time on nuclear energy and on the question of novel forms of nuclear energy. First of all, these new forms must be environmentally friendly. They don’t contribute to green house effect, but they must also be non-proliferating, and we will discuss this very carefully because most of the arguments for nuclear energy are primarily related to the fact that developing countries now want to have nuclear energy and this represents a major problem. They must not give rise to longlived radioactive by-products, there must be no chance of run-away production and one must have a very small fuel inventory. So, the question is a question mark in fact. Is there a rule for nuclear energy? Because not everybody would agree that you want to do nuclear energy all along, it means that when you finish with toxic fossil fuel you are obliged to go solar. Period. Because there is nothing else. I believe nonetheless that there should be nuclear energy, the question is in which kind of level you want to hook?

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In the sixties, ”atoms for peace” promised a cheap, abundant and universally available nuclear power, where the few “nuclear” countries would ensure the necessary know-how to the many others which have renounced to nuclear weaponry. Today, the situation is far from being acceptable: due to technological developments, the link between peaceful and military applications has been shortened: Uranium enrichment may be easily extended to a level sufficient to produce a “bomb grade” U-235 (see the case of Iran for instance); natural Uranium reactors with heavy water (CANDU) generate a considerable amount of Pu, such as produce easily Pu-239 “bomb grade” (the case of India).

• •

Now the question is: Can we have a free nuclear proliferation in all countries? In my view it can become acceptable only once the umbilical cord with this energy and weapon is cut. If we continue to play the game of energy linked with the bomb, problems of mankind would be so complicated that only a few countries will do it, and countries that have little or no energy, they will find themselves in difficulty. So totally different but new adequate technology must be developed. There are essentially three possibilities to do nuclear energy in large amounts without proliferation or with proliferation. Energy is produced whenever we have nuclear fusion or fission, as shown below: Th + n 

232

U+n

238

Li + n  T;

U + n  fission + 2.3n

(Th cycle)

Pu + n  fission + 2.5n

(238U cycle)

U;

233

Pu ;

239

233 239

T + D  He + n

(fusion)

Particularly interesting are fission reactions in which a natural element is bred into a readily fissionable energy generating process. You start with something that is not fissionable or fusionable and you create from that another element which is used. First example is for Thorium which becomes 233U which is fissionable and gives you 2.3 neutrons and energy and is not proliferating. The other possibility is depleted Uranium which becomes Plutonium 239 but this reaction is heavily proliferating. So I believe that the reaction of Thorium and Lithium for fusion can be safely exploited in every country. Let me also mention why Thorium is not proliferating: for 3 reasons: • •

•

Decay heat of the α-decays which conflicts with the low temperature required by the explosive around the core (190 °C for 100 W) Gamma activity of the decay products makes the handling and transport virtually impossible. The contamination of 232U (2x103 ppm) due to Tl-208 (2.6 MeV) for a critical mass of Uranium is about 72 Sv/h (50% lethal dose after 5 minutes) which would make it impossible to build a bomb and transport it in airplane etc. Spontaneous fissions strongly reduce its potential yield because of preinitiation of the chain reaction. Easier to build Gun-type implosion systems are already excluded for Pu-239 with 66 neutrons g-1 s-1.

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Allow me to quickly skip all these stuff. Another important point I’d like to discuss is fusion reactor and ITER: you can see from this diagram (Figure 9) that ITER should become to a level sufficient to produce essentially ignition which has not been reached so far. The question is that ITER, in the most optimistic case, is only the beginning of the story because when the present generation of experiments is left, the next step will be ITER, which would be demonstration technology, confirmation of physics, and will not be yet a machine: after it, you are going to have a demonstration reactor and then eventually we are coming to do a commercial power reactor which will be in 50 years from now. Actually I have to tell you a joke in this respect: a famous person asked a fusion physicist: Why did you say that it takes 50 years to do it when you told me already 50 years 25 years ago? And he answered: “I’m a serious man, I don’t change my mind” (laughs).

Figure 9. Experimental results.

The second point I’d like to say is that the situation today is such that the amount of money that has been put, the amount of interest put by society into developing this new energies, either solar or nuclear, is a very tiny little amount of the money that has been invested in energy to be used. The example of ITER is 4 billion euro, which is two days of price increase of oil, and oil is only one third of the total energy cost which has been used. So in 10 years we will have ITER going and another 10 years to make profit of it, so 20 years in total. In 20 years society is going to find 2 days of cost increase of oil. 2 days put into the future, 2 days out of 20 years doesn’t seem a correct number in terms of ability of mankind not to be overthrown and covered by lack of preparation, which is a general problem that we see everywhere in modern society. In my view, we are not putting enough time and money in order to be able to develop new forms of energy wherever they are. With the various options we have, we should be able to solve the problem of the waste: all data show that for a normal Thorium reactor, the Thorium energy amplifier, the magnetic fusion plant, in 500 years you are going to be able to reach a level of actual coal radioactivity, 500 years which is a reasonable period of time which you know you can handle.

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Conclusion The future of mankind is crucially dependent on continuous availability of cheap and abundant energy. Should energy supply break down, mankind may collapse. This is the first and most important point. Energy from fossil is not forever. Furthermore it is likely to be prematurely curbed by the emergence of serious incontrollable climatic changes. Third point: time has come to consider other sources of energy without which mankind may be heading to disaster. Nuclear and solar are the only two candidates. Serious alternative, nuclear energy without Uranium 235, so new nuclear energy and without proliferation must be investigated. Proliferation should be removed as soon as possible. Nuclear fusion reactors are also likely candidate, presumably capable to produce energy for millennium to come and the difference between renewable and non renewable energy will then become totally academic. If it takes 20 centuries to burn up your energy it is unlikely renewable. Depleted Uranium is also possible but not for everybody because of proliferation concerns. Solar energy, particularly promising is the direct use to concentrate solar radiation in the wide regions of Sun Belt. These methods are likely to be successful in the long run. However, they need urgently an innovative research and development programme. Although innovative energy may eventually be more essential in developing countries, only our technically developed society can realistically foster such a change. Thank you very much.

Question — You didn’t mention Hydrogen as a source of energy. C. Rubbia — I can answer right away. Hydrogen is not an energy source. It is an energy carrier, like electricity. The real question is: How will evolve the method by which you produce hydrogen, if one day hydrogen will become the equivalent of synthetic natural gas, because everything you can do with natural gas you can think to do it with hydrogen? In fact we did have hydrogen in the past year in terms of “town gas”, which was 50% hydrogen and the rest was CO and this thing was used broadly all over European countries and also in America. So hydrogen is well known, it is produced as a chemical process, there is a huge amount of hydrogen 2% of today primary energy makes use of hydrogen, so it’s already a very well developed system. But it produces CO2, because to get it, one starts from natural gas. So, why should you go from natural gas to hydrogen when you can burn the CH4 right away and at best you would use the same amount of CH4 directly or indirectly because the final state and initial state are the same, and the energy consumption is the same. Under these conditions, obviously the real question of hydrogen is what will be the future source that can produce it. Now a lot of work has been done on solar, and there are people who are really building direct solar transformation in hydrogen. The transformation cannot be immediate, because water will go into hydrogen and oxygen naturally at 3,000 degrees which is far too high. You then have to make an indirect chain with intermediate steps, which are working in a circle, working as a catalyser, working to temperatures of 800 degrees and transform sun light into hydrogen which is accumulated and used as a natural gas. The efficiency of this system is very high: it is more than 50 per cent, at least in the laboratory. The second possibility which is supported strongly by the French is the one of nuclear power plant that goes directly

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into hydrogen. That nuclear has to be different than the present nuclear because it has to bear high temperatures. So, one of the major component of generation 4 reactor which will be built in France is the primary use of it to make a gas driven reactor with hydrogen at 800 degrees. It will go into a chemical system rather than producing electricity. So you bypass alternator etc. All this of course is for much later. Another problem of hydrogen is transport. There is a lot of work to do before this thing becomes a reality because the hydrogen requires a field sale, which is something that at the present moment is far to be realistic, then you have to have transport, distribution etc. so unfortunately energy, if you like, transport is not the right place. As a matter of fact, one third of energy goes into electricity, one third goes into industrial application and one third goes into transport, and that last part is the one which will remain with oil. Question — If I understand you correctly, it seems that ITER will not be on time, because we cannot expect anything out of it before 50 years. So it will be late for the bottlenecks in energy production. Is there a timetable for the other sources of energy you described? C. Rubbia — I’ll answer first from a quote from Churchill who said that “Democracy is very bad but all the other forms are worse”. So before saying that fusion is not going to work you ask yourself what other choices you have beside fusion, because otherwise you’ll be in trouble. The main problem is that Uranium 235 in the present situation is not very abundant. I believe that the bright days ahead of us will rely on fission, because fission has behind it 50 years of experience and a little bit of change will not hurt those gentlemen who are running the industrial system of nuclear power plants: when you go to a closed cycle and you make these breeding reactions as indicated in my presentation, you have a much more sophisticated system which would allow you to use all the depleted Uranium that you have around which is a huge amount and it would be used much more efficiently because you are drawing the whole of it not the 0.7%. So you gain between 150 and 200 times the number of material you need to produce a certain amount of energy. So the idea is to use a closed cycle, with the breeding, and to my view that solution, in the nuclear domain, is not a major step. You can make a breeding reactor tomorrow if you want and you can make it work without major problems. There are questions of fast breeder, slow breeder and the rest of it, but still, there is a bright future for fission and it’s not obvious to me that fusion will be the winner. Fusion is much more complicated, as it needs to go to 500 million degrees and there are two facts that you have to remember. Number one: fusion is not what people say, in other words, it’s not the reaction which works on the sun, because the reaction that works on the sun is a-neutronic, there are not neutrons there, while the other reaction produces Tritium. The sun is driven by a reaction which is mostly weakinteraction, the other one is nuclear-interaction. So the relationship between the sun and the other thing is totally a result of a misunderstanding, in my view. This is the first point. The second point is that people think that fusion is clean, but the present fusion is as dirty as fission, however, the great advantage is that fusion brings in radioactivity through activation products and therefore is more short-lived than the other system. So is a fission system which is operating with closed cycle, because in the closed cycle the actinides are not waste: they are used and burnt. So all together, the options are many. In my view it’s not the one solution or the other is the best, the decision will come from

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the future, not ours, somebody else’s future, the point is that we should not continue not to spend anything on this subject. The real problem is to put enough money into this. I said in the beginning that investment in the energy domain is very small. How small is it? Pharmaceutical, chemical, computer industry produces normally 15% or 20% of the sales in form of income which is used to start R&D, so R&D is in the order of 15 to 20 per cent of the initial cost of the product. What is the situation with energy? It’s extremely small worldwide: private and public energy research is between tobacco and beverages, which is half per cent. So we are spending more money today in tobacco, in buying coca cola than we are spending in order to transform a situation that is oil-driven into a situation which is driven by different principles, either solar, or nuclear or whatever. And you realize that this is much more expensive.

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Energy Research at CIEMAT and the Almeria Solar Platform Project12 Juan-Antonio RUBIO Director of CIEMAT, Madrid Abstract. CIEMAT is the only research center on solar energy operative in Europ. It aims at testing various technologies and devices for using solar energy to produce high temperatures, direct steam generation, solar detoxification, solar desalination. Components are also tested and experimental installations in various countries designed.

First of all I want to thank the organizers of this conference, and in particular my colleague Robert Klapisch for the kind invitation. CIEMAT is the Spanish centre for research in energy and environment. 30 years ago it was linked to the Spanish atomic energy commission, but since then there has been a diversification of the activity to cover all energy sources, environmental issues related to energy generation, also basic research, fundamental research in particular physics fields. So we wanted to promote basic science, fundamental science and also all the technologies associated to those developments with applications. These activities are integrated in the European framework but also CIEMAT has in mind to strengthen collaboration with Latin America and Mediterranean countries and this is one the reasons why I am here today. My presentation will mainly focus on thermal solar energy, in particular the solar plant “Almeria”, since I was requested to speak a little bit about it. Almeria is an Arab name as you know and this laboratory is one of the most important laboratories in solar field in the world. Now let me speak about solar energy, which is a potential massive energy source, clearly. In fact it generates from the sun, with a radio density of the order of 63 MW/m 2. However, the geometrical constraints between the sun and the earth lead to a dramatic decrease of the flux in such a way that the irradiant is slightly more than 1 kW/m 2. So if you want to produce energy in solar plants or high temperature applications of solar energy, you need necessarily to have concentration of devices, otherwise you don’t get what you want. There are several technologies used to concentrate solar energy (Figure 1). The technologies in 2 dimensions focus the energy along lines, while the technologies in 3 dimensions, such as the central receivers and the parabolic dishes, focus on a volume, on a point. For the technologies in 2 dimensions, I should also mention the parabolic flux technologies, which are not shown on the figure because they don’t have enough concentration factor and they are not used mainly for producing thermal energy. Anyway, the concentration factors for the parabolic troughs 12

Transcription from oral in English.

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are around 100, for the central receivers this factor can be 1,000 and for the parabolic dishes it could be several thousands. However the parabolic dishes represent a limited market mainly because of the installation cost and for the efficiency of the thermal cycle, and this is a technology mainly used for relatively small applications of a few tens of kilowatts.

Figure 1. Concentrating solar energy

So the most competitive technologies are the parabolic troughs and the central receivers. The parabolic trough has a lot of future, it could become competitive. You can get as much as you want, you just have to add more and more mirrors and you get more and more energy. However, the temperatures that you can reach is limited to several hundred of degrees centigrade. To the contrary, the central receivers of power can reach high temperatures, of 1,000 degrees or more, but they are limited in their size to about 50 MW. Of course you can also install central receivers and have as much power as you need by adding more reflectors. These are the most competitive technologies, according to my information; the parabolic troughs are a bit more competitive than the central receivers, but both technologies have to be developed and we’ll see what happens. Now let me come to the platform of “Almeria”. I will shorten my presentation to leave the floor for questions. First of all, “Almeria” is part of the Central Investigación Energeticas Monumentales and Tecnologicas which has about 1,400 people and an annual budget of 150 million euros. The goal of this platform is to make ready potential industrial applications by concentrating solar thermal energy. The location of the platform is distributed over 103 hectares in the Taberna desert of Almeria. General budget of the laboratory is about 10 million euros. Human resources: the are 100 people working there, 20 of them are commuting between Madrid and Almeria, and the auxiliary personnel for the maintenance of the platform represents about 50 %.

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The platform was born in 1977 in the framework of a large international collaboration and already in 1981 it delivered the first electricity. In 1997 it became part of a thematic collaboration with the DER from Germany. In 1999 it was recognized as the last scientific operative installation in Europ. And since its beginning, more and more experiments have been done on the platform and more installations have been added. So, now it’s really a large laboratory. Let me explain what are the main installations of the solar platform of Almeria, (see Figure 2). First of all, those with number 1 are the central receivers technologies, with two towers, the one on the left is 80 meters high with a nominal power of 7 MW and the other tower on the right has a nominal power of 2.7 MW.

Figure 2. Overall view of the Almeria platform

Then we have another installation, number 2, which is parabolic trough collector technology, which delivers 1.2 MW and is coupled to a multi distillation plant of 3 m 3 per hour. We will talk about it a little bit later on. Number 3 is a parabolic collector installation for direct steam generation, which is one the technologies developed in the platform. This installation has a power of 1.8 MW and is able to deliver 1 kg per second of steam at the temperature of 100 degrees and a pressure of 100 bars, and can produce electricity right away. Number 4 is a set of 6 parabolic dishes, each one of 50 MW of thermal power on which we got quite a lot of experience. Another installation, number 5, is a solar furnace, with a ground area of 100 m 2. It has a power of 60 kW and by concentrating that on a radius of about, in total, 28 cm over a width of about 10 cm, you can reach temperatures of 3,000 degrees. It is mainly used for earth and materials studies and also for developing technical applications. The installation number 6 is a solar detoxification unit of polluted water: there are 6 compound collectors which can make detoxification over a surface of about 40 m 2

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and in a volume of 500 litres. There is also another installation of parabolic collectors on two axes that is able to test detoxification on a volume of about 5,000 litres per hour. The installation number 7 is a solar desalinisation plant: it’s a multi effect distillation plant coupled with solar energy and in fact we are aiming now to produce pure water, to a price of about 3 euro per m 3. This is more expensive than reverse osmosis, but nobody knows, reverse osmosis rely mainly on energy cost and the multi effect distillation coupled with solar could become competitive. The installation number 8 is aiming at testing solar components and buildings. We have several cells, between 5 and 16 m3, with one wall prepared for testing architectural components: thermal losses, optical transmittivity, etc. And finally there is a kind of meteo station at the entrance of the platform of Almeria, which is part of the International Network for Meteorology. In order to shorten my presentation I will not go through each of these technologies, because C. Rubbia already made some descriptions, but nevertheless, if you have any questions, I’m ready to answer. However, what is important to know is that we are planning now to go ahead towards a massive solar energy supply. And in this sense we feel, as Carlo Rubbia said, that concentrating solar power has great potential as energy source. However, it has to be competitive. First of all, the installation cost of the thermal solar energy for one kilowatt an hour is between 2.3 and 3.5 times the installation cost of fossil fuel power plant. Also the operational and maintenance cost is higher by a factor 3 about as compared to the operational and maintenance cost of fossil fuel. However, we feel that there is a margin for competition. Why? We have to optimize the mirrors, first, we have to optimize the pipes and coating, we have to optimize the fluids—only the oil is operational—but there is the steam and there is also the gas, so there is a lot of margin to make an optimisation. We also have to optimize the control systems, which are very expensive in the installations. We have to optimize the conventional tools for energy generations and adapt them to the power that we can generate with our units. Finally there will be of course a decrease of the cost because of the series fabrication of the components. In total we feel that we can get this factor, 3, with respect to the current cost. So profiting now from a favourable legislation in Spain, CIEMAT is launching designs of about 50 MWe Units, in collaboration with the appropriate partners, and continue to build the required small testing prototype units. Thank you very much

Question — Time needed to build a new 50 MW plans that you have in mind? J.-A. Rubio — There are already several projects in Spain, mainly with oil. There are hundreds of projects I’d say 3-4 years. However, first of all we have to do design, this will take mostly 6-9 months, but there are already 10 plants which are foreseen in Spain of 50 MW each, so what we would like to do, is to incorporate in these plants the new technologies, this will take mostly between 4-5 and 10 years. Question — What is the down time for maintenance? J.-A. Rubio — Well, there is no problem with maintenance in general with mirrors, it depends on where they are. If it is in the desert you will have a problem with the sun, you have to clean up the mirrors continuously. However, in Almeria, there are

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no problems. By the way, Almeria is not the best place for sun, we have about 3,000 sunny hours per year, in fact only 6 days of rain per year. However, we have 3,0003,200 hours per year, it is enough, it is a good place. Canaries Island is the very best one, it is better than Almeria. In the countries of North Africa you have very good conditions, in the desert, because of the sun, but then you have to clean a lot the mirrors, continuously.

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The Future of Wind Energy in Morocco 13 D. ZEJLI14, R. BENCHRIFA and A. BENNOUNA Department of Technologies and of the Economics of Renewable Energies National Center for Scientific and Technical Research, Morocco Abstract. In this paper the authors describe progress made in the area of windpower technology throughout the world in general, and then present a project for electric power transmission using wind energy from the south of Morocco to the European Union. The cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of wind energy would be 0.05€ at its arrival in central Europe. Keywords: Wind energy, electric power transmission, costs, Morocco, European Union

1. Introduction In the opinions of many experts, and even of petroleum companies themselves, petroleum production will reach its peak in less than twenty years. Possible avenues to explore to counter this looming shortage aren’t abundant, and one of them is to return to renewable energies with new technologies to respond to the demands of development. The boom in renewable energies, which has been expected for many years now, finally seems to have begun. The case of wind energy is very revealing, since it shows the efforts undertaken by first Denmark and then Germany to bring to the technology of wind energy the success that we now know it to have. In fact, windmills were the first energy-producing constructions created by humankind, and they were used for thousands of years until the nineteenth century, when the windmill was dethroned by the fossil fuels that appeared with the Industrial Revolution. Since that time, very few windmills have been built; of those that remained, most have been abandoned and have disappeared from the landscape. It was only in 1973 that people rediscovered solar and wind power. The two gas crises, the specter of shortages, and the beginnings of awareness about the damage to the environment caused by fossil fuels all contributed to the reawakened interest in renewable energies that we’re seeing today.

Original text in French, translated in English. Corresponding author: Driss ZEJLI, CNRST, 52 Avenue Omar Ibn Khattab, B.P.: 8027, Agdal, Rabat, Morocco; E-mail: [email protected]. 13 14

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2. Wind Energy in the World If, almost thirty years ago, wind energy was considered the least promising of the renewable energies, the situation has changed considerably with the great improvements attained in the past few years in the technology of horizontal-axis wind turbines, and the fact that the costs for them have become competitive. The maximum power per unit for wind turbines was 10 kW at the end of the 1970s, 50 kW in 1984–85 and then 1.5 MW in 1996–97; today this power exceeds 4 MW. The cost, which was close to 0.3 €/kWh in 1980, is now between 0.025 and 0.05 €/kWh for on-shore sites. However, this leap for wind power is the result of the remarkable expansion of electric power, and its development has profited from the accumulated knowledge of several disciplines, especially meteorology, electric machines, aeronautics, structural dynamics, chemistry, and material physics, and also power electronics; hence the multidisciplinary aspect of this technology. The constantly increasing numbers of wind turbines which are connected all over the world to already established power grids shows how successful this technology has become (Figure 1).

Total installed power (MW)

Years

Figure 1. Electric power generated by wind throughout the world

Most modern wind turbines on the market today are the three-blade variety, the rotor being maintained in a position facing the wind. This configuration is called “the Danish Concept” and it tends to constitute the standard these days. Wind turbines function principally in two ways, depending on the choice of generator. Some wind turbines function with a constant rotation speed. In this case, the best output is achieved by a single wind speed. It is possible, however, to try to get a maximal output regardless of wind speed. This can be accomplished by making the rotation speed of the rotor vary; this allows for a very effective output. These wind turbines are equipped with a multipolar generator and power electronics that allow them to function at variable speeds.

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3. Wind Energy in Morocco In 2000, Morocco began large-scale development of wind energy. Following two projects totaling 53 MW, the ONE (National Electricity Bureau) projects the installation of 320 MW: 140 MW in the region of Tangier, 60 MW in Taza, 60 MW at Essaouira, and 60 MW at Tarfaya. In addition, construction by the Lafarge Group of a wind farm to supply electric power to its cement plant in Tetouan can be considered a first for Morocco. One can hope that this initiative will have an encouraging effect on other national economic operators and actors who are still skeptical with regard to this form of energy and don’t yet quite believe in its breakthrough. 4. Is there a Future for Wind Energy in Morocco? Morocco is a country lying fallow, and yet the potential for the growth of the national economy is very high; a strong growth in electricity demand is therefore highly possible. Hence the leading role that the exploitation of this natural resource, of which our skies are generous, can take in the Moroccan economy, not forgetting the beneficial effects that it can have on the emergence of a new industrial fabric with strong potential to produce jobs and wealth. Morocco’s wind energy potential, as shown in Figure 2, is significant, and the transformation technology of this energy source exists and is even competitive. What is most needed is an actual desire to develop this form of energy, which, whether one wants it or not, will without a doubt have a place among the energy options of the future.

Figure 2. Wind energy map of Morocco [1]

Several months before the tenth anniversary of the Barcelona Process, let us imagine a project with ambitious long-term objectives. This project would combine the resources and assets of the partners on both sides of the Mediterranean. It would

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involve electric power transmission using wind energy from southern Morocco to the European Union, as illustrated in Diagram 1.

Morocco Significant wind energy potential

European Union Increased demand for renewable energy + High demographic density _______________________________________________________________________________________ Urgent need for the emergence of a buoyant sector with strong potential to create jobs and wealth

Electricity →

Technology ←

Transferable technology that will create jobs

_______________________________________________________________________________________ Relatively limited financial resources

Investment ←

Presence of several financial institutions + Participation in various financial schemes + Private investment _______________________________________________________________________________________ Diagram 1. Morocco–EU partnership in the framework of an electric power transmission project

The coastal region of southern Morocco is among the windiest regions in the world. It is dominated by trade winds, which are known for their regularity and their sufficiently high speeds. Moreover, in addition to its low demographic density, a large part of this region is composed of plains and rocky plateaus. It therefore lends itself well to the installation of large wind farms. In this region Morocco could produce more than ten times its actual electricity needs. A large part of this production could be exported to the European Union using the technique of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) cables, which minimize line losses. This technique has already been proven in numerous projects of long-distance electric power transmission all over the world.

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Let us suppose that a wind farm with a surface area of 10,000 km 2 is installed in southern Morocco; this farm would produce, as shown in Table 1, the equivalent of almost 200 TWh. This is a little less than 10% of European electricity consumption. Table 1. General data for electric power transmission project

Surface area of farm Minimum wind turbine density Total installed power Estimated production Maximum investment costs (Wind farms + HVDC) Total investment

10,000 km2 5 MW/km2 50,000 MW 200 TWh (European consumption: ~ 2,300 TWh) 1,400 €/kW 70,109 € (1.75 PIBMorocco (2004))

Based on the data shown in Table 1, the cost per kWh as formulated by the first equation below would be 0.05 €/kWh at the arrival of the current in central Europe. It would be less than that per kWh of wind energy produced in offshore Europe, the cost of which is between 0.06 and 0.09 €/kWh [2]. CGA = A(n ) =

Inv.A(n ) + C om Pr i.(i + 1) n

(i + 1) n − 1

(1) (2)

Inv: Total cost of investment (1,400 €/kW) Com: Annual cost of functioning and maintenance (22.5 €/kW.year) A(n): Coefficient of actualization i: Rate of actualization (10%) n: Life span (20 years) Pr: Annual electricity production 5. Socioeconomic and Environmental Effects of Electric Power Transmission Project 5.1. For Morocco − − − −

Export of a nonperishable product with higher added value Development of a new industry Chance for enormous job-creation possibilities Development of heretofore unproductive regions

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5.2. For the European Union − Increase of renewable energies in European electricity consumption to achieve the objective of 21% by 2010 − Import of electricity with renewable origins less expensive than that produced locally − Emergence of a potential market for European products 5.3. For the entire region − Increase in the volume of exchange between the two sides of the Mediterranean − Reduction in illegal immigration. References [1] [2]

Centre de développement des Energies Renouvelables. Le Gisement éolien du Maroc (1995). A. Bonduelle, , M.Lefevre, Eole ou Pluton, Rapport de Greenpeace, décembre 2003.

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EUROGIA: the Energy Cluster to Provide Green Solutions to Satisfy an Ever-Growing Demand for Energy 15 Gabriel MARQUETTE Schlumberger Research, Director, European Affairs Chairman of EUROGIA Abstract. EUROGIA’s fundamental purpose is to initiate the technological developments which are fundamental to ensure a better management of fossil fuels for securing the world energy needs for the next decades, while respecting environmental quality and facilitating the migration towards the hydrogen economy and the use of renewable energy sources.

EUROGIA is a EUREKA 16 strategic initiative for sustainable development and more secure energy supply towards a cleaner and safer future. It has been officially labeled as a EUREKA cluster in March 2004 and is as such the first European R&D program dedicated to security of energy supply and energy chain decarbonisation. EUROGIA’s Roadmap is based on the oil & gas research priorities defined by EUROGIF 17 ’s Thematic Networks, which bring together stakeholders from 17 European countries (including Russia). EUROGIA’s objective is to put this industry vision into practice. EUROGIA is also there to facilitate the re-organisation of the oil & gas supply sector in order to face emerging challenges and to seize the historical opportunity represented by the changing business models vis-à-vis oil and gas operators. 1. Background Sustainable development is the challenge for a world with a growing population that expects better living conditions, in an endangered environment. The challenge is to Original text in English. EUREKA is the intergovernmental initiative supporting European innovation. It represents a panEuropean network for market-oriented, industrial R&D. EUREKA groups 35 countries, including around the Mediterranean Sea all European countries plus Turkey, Israel, and Morocco as an Associate Country. EUROGIA is the first EUREKA cluster for Energy. 17 EUROGIF, the European Oil and Gas Innovation Forum, represents the interests of the oil & gas service and supply industry (over 2000 companies employing 200,000 direct workers) which services oil and gas companies. EUROGIF is involved in 8 Thematic Networks (QHSE, ICT, Floating Structures, Subsea Production, Smart Reservoir, Materials, Gas Chain, CO2) mostly funded by the European Commission (FP5). They bring together more than 170 organisations—operators, contractors, SME’s, Research institutes, universities—from 17 European countries (including Russia). 15 16

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meet present needs without compromising future prospects. Energy systems must evolve to meet these changing needs and respond to environmental concerns, in particular global warming. All fuels will soon have to face rapidly changing, increasingly competitive and much more complex energy markets. In order to be able to satisfy its increasing energy needs, the world has moved from wood to coal and from coal to oil. It is moving today from oil to gas and will, tomorrow, move from gas to hydrogen and renewables. This evolutive process is quite often called “energy decarbonisation”. As an introduction, three general comments have to be made: 1. 2. 3.

Energy activities are now being governed by the “sustainable development” principle whereby economic development, environmental protection and social responsibility are closely interconnected: «meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs». Renewable resources are booming, and in some countries, their annual growth rate can reach up to 20%. However, even if this growth remains constant over the next 20 years, renewables will meet in 2020 as little as 10% of today’s energy demand. Waste management is an essential element in new energy production developments; by-products of all processes must now be either commercialised or segregated and safely disposed of in the reservoir or elsewhere.

Consequently today all issues—technical, economical, environmental and societal—are closely interconnected. They can no longer be investigated independently from one another. As regards CO2 emissions, coal combustion has produced the heaviest emissions. Oil occupies a midway place and natural gas is the least polluting fossil energy source in this respect (e.g. its CO 2 emissions are half that of brown coal). Consequently, in the coming decades, an increase in natural gas consumption is quite likely to be the most effective means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions whilst renewable technologies are further developed, marketed and widely used. The long term goal is to achieve the so-called “hydrogen economy”. It is foreseen that energy demand will increase by 60% within the next 25 years and that fossil energies will still represent around 80% of the worldwide consumption for the same period. This will directly induce, in a “business as usual” scenario, the potential increase of CO2 emissions by 60%. With the main objective of reducing environmental & climatic impact in the next decades, it will be vital to efficiently manage the exploration, production, transport and use of fossil energies. To do so, it is therefore imperative to develop and deploy advanced technologies in both the short and medium to long term. The EU R&D effort of the Oil & Gas Industry represents 33% of the world’s total investment (6bn€), compared to 43% in the US (2.5bn€). O&G operators/producers increasingly outsource their R&D to the O&G Service & Supply Industry. Today, the latter contributes to more than one third of the world’s total R&D budget, and this trend is increasing steadily. As a consequence, the Service & Supply industry has gained more power and responsibility in the choice and design of the new technologies to be developed with a view to not only meet technical and commercial objectives but also to comply with environmental, safety and ethical requirements.

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This O&G Service & Supply industry sector is worth 40bn€ of yearly revenue for EU Member States plus Norway (of which 5% are invested in R&D every year), and it directly employs over 200,000 people. EU R&D investments in this sector exceed 700 M€ yearly (a figure equivalent to the US DoE’s yearly financial support to the US O&G R&D). 2. Objectives In order to face efficiently the energy demand challenges as well as the significant US and Asian competition, three main objectives must be met: • • •

The minimization of climate and environmental impact, due to the use of fossil energies, on the CO2 balance. The competitiveness of European O&G services and equipment sector The security of energy supply

3. Technical Vision In developing a technical vision to achieve these objectives, two avenues must be pursued: • •

Demonstration and deployment of technologies whose feasibility is already proven. Development of innovative high-technology solutions.

Main areas for research should be: 3.1. Decarbonisation: •

• •

Optimization and promotion of the gas chain will have a major impact on CO 2 emission reduction. This covers the elimination of flaring, treatment, contaminant re-injection, conditioning (chemical or physical liquefaction), transit (customized vessels, high pressure and heat insulated gas pipes) and conversion (gas turbines and micro-turbines, fuel cells), CO2 capture and storage: storage can be either static (deep water gasification) or dynamic (secondary oil recovery or recovery of methane from coal mines). Minimization of methane losses: transport (e.g. CIS), abandoned coal mines, energy distribution networks.

3.2. Security of Energy Supply: Optimization of reservoir management and the development of new fossil resources. • •

Exploration and exploitation of deep water reservoirs (< 3000 m): only 15% of the offshore has already been explored. Economic exploitation of gas fields and their associated gas.

G. Marquette / EUROGIA: The Energy Cluster to Provide Green Solutions

•

•

79

Optimization of integrated management of reservoirs, to boost the drainage coefficient from 35 % to 60 % within the next ten years: 1% of enhanced recovery rate = 2 years of worldwide energy consumption Innovative technologies such as multi-component, multi-dimensional, timelapse reservoir characterization and monitoring, interactive drilling, intelligent completion will be essential to achieve this goal. Finally non-conventional hydrocarbons have to be considered: oily sands, heavy oils, coal bed methane, coal bed gasification, methane hydrates (estimated reserves of methane hydrates amount to twice the rest of documented fossil energies reserves) whether on land or at sea bottom (characterization, secure processes of recovery and conversion).

These two areas, besides their considerable potential impact on CO 2 emission and the security of energy supply, have a major potential on the increase of European companies’ competitiveness in a worldwide market. 4. EUROGIA: Part of the Solution in the Energy Equation Faced with the development of the North Sea in the last 30 years and with the shift of R&D efforts from Oil & Gas Operating Companies towards service contractors and suppliers’ research laboratories, the European Service and Supply Industry has built-up a capacity to address new challenges such as deep water reservoirs, optimization of mature field recovery rates, non conventional hydrocarbons, migration to gas, etc. However, for this industry to stay competitive on the worldwide scene (with products and services being net contributors to the EU trade balance), more efforts are needed for a more effective integration. The EUREKA initiative has proven to be successful at structuring R&D at European level and beyond in specific research domains. It has also proven that its industry-driven approach can federate all key players, therefore capitalizing across borders on the expertise of large, medium and small enterprises, all benefiting from both private and public research support. EUROGIA is the tool for European industry to contribute to sustainable development through: • •

•

economic growth: a better positioning vis-à-vis non-European competition and a more secure energy supply for Europe social quality: sustained employment growth, particularly for highly qualified jobs, and increased attractiveness for scientific studies. This is to increase our visibility in the scientific world environmental protection: development of better technologies to minimise the impact of industrial activities on environment, to reduce greenhouse gases, to accelerate the migration towards the hydrogen economy, and to contribute to providing cost effective solutions in the renewable energy sources sector.

EUROGIA’s fundamental purpose is to initiate the technological developments which are fundamental to ensure a better management of fossil fuels for securing the world energy needs for the next decades, while respecting environmental quality and facilitating the migration towards the hydrogen economy and the use of renewable energy sources.

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EUROGIA is an integral part of this strategy: EUROGIA runs 2 to 3 calls for proposals yearly. Bottom-approach, industry-driven, market-oriented projects are key words. Proposals, evaluated by international experts following a peer review procedure, are expected to fall in the 2 areas/ 6 priorities which constitute EUROGIA’s backbone: •

•

Security of supply 1. More efficient exploitation of mature fields 2. Deep and ultra deep offshore fields 3. Non conventional resources Decarbonisation 1. Migration to natural gas 2. Carbon capture, use and storage 3. Migration to hydrogen economy.

17 projects, gathering more than 70 organisations from 11 countries and representing 80 M€ budget have already been granted the EUROGIA label.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Sustainable Energy Scenarios in the Mediterranean: Current Situation and Prospects18 Dominique GENTILE a and Samir ALLAL b Director of the Institut National Sciences et Techniques Nucléaires b Senior Lecturer, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines a

Abstract. The large population growth as well as the increase demand of energy per capita poses severe problems to the Southern Mediterranean countries. The basic trend scenario (laissez faire) leads to an explosion of the demand and may induce instabilities in the region. A more sustainable scenario is possible but requires a concerted political action of all countries involved.

1. Context •

•

•

18

Several exercises in regional energy prospective planning have been carried out in the last few years. Energy specialists have a habit of projecting in the long-term and describing contrasting images of national, regional and global energy demand-and-supply situations with different forecast ranges. Some of these exercises are forecasts outlining the most likely development for the energy sector if the trends observed in the recent period continue in the period under study. Others are a form of prospective planning and present contrasting images that reflect energy constraints and policies which are themselves diverse, and their consequences in terms of energy demand and supply, the environment, etc., on different forecasting horizons. Still others fix normative goals with a given forecast range (for example, to reduce hothouse gas emissions by X% or Y% of renewable energies on a more or less distant forecasting horizon) and set out the technical, economic and organisational conditions needed to reach that horizon. For the Mediterranean countries, the most recent and significant exercises are those developed by the Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie and the Plan Bleu. These scenarios were discussed in a paper at the 4th session of the Université Méditerranéenne d’Eté that we held in Tunis from 11 to 13 July 2005, on the theme “Energy policy and sustainable development in the Mediterranean: challenges and new solidarities”. In the year 2000, the North Mediterranean countries (PNM), which represent 45% of the region, consumed 74% of total consumption of primary energy. An inhabitant of the PNM thus consumed over 3 times more than an inhabitant of a PSEM. The disparity is from 1 to 12 between the country that is the biggest Original text in French, translated in English.

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•

energy consumer per inhabitant—France, with more than 4,200 kep per inhabitant—and the smallest consumer of energy—Morocco, which consumes less than 350 kep per inhabitant (Figure 1). The inequality is even more marked for electricity, since the disparity was from 1 to 4 between the North and the South, and from 1 to 20 between the biggest consumer, France, with 9,000 kWh per inhabitant, and Morocco, with less than 500 kWh per inhabitant (Figure 2).

2025 2010

NORD

2000 1970

2025 2010

PSEM

2000 1970

(kep/hab )

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Source: OME, 2005

Figure 1. Energy consumption per capita in the Mediterranean (1970, 2000, 2010, 2025)

2025 2010 2000

NORD

1970

2025

PSEM

2010 2000

(kWh/hab) 0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Source: OME, 2005

Figure 2. Electricity consumption per capita in the Mediterranean (1970, 2000, 2010, 2025)

Analysis of past evolution of final consumption in the Mediterranean countries shows a very strong growth in final energy consumption for the residential sector (up more than 5% per annum between 1974 and 1999) and the transport sector (average annual growth of around 4%), mainly due to demographic growth, increased urbanisation, improved living standards and the inefficiency of current systems of energy consumption and production. These trends, as we

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•

shall see later (in the laissez-faire scenario), will tend to continue and become more pronounced in the PSEM countries in the coming years if the mechanism put in place to control the increase in energy consumptions is not reinforced. As far as supply structures are concerned, we cannot help but observe a predominance in the Mediterranean of hydrocarbons, a break-through in natural gas and marginal participation on the part of ENRs in energy results for the region (Figure 3). In 2000, fossil fuels (oil, carbon, gas) dominated the region’s energy supply (more than 75% of consumption in the North, and 96% in the South and East). This trend looks set to continue over the next few years, confirming the predominance of fossil fuels, which will account for 87% of energy consumption by 2025 (current-trend scenarios); oil will represent 40% of the balance, with not inconsiderable consequences on the climate. This underlines how much work needs to be done decarbonising EuroMediterranean energy systems if they are to reach the sustainable development goals for the region (Figure 4). Hydro

Nucléaire 13

Hydro ER 0 3

Charbon 12

Gaz 28%

2%

ER 0%

Charbon

15%

Gaz

22

Pétrole 50

Pétrole 55%

Source: OME, 2005

Figure 3. (left) Structure of the energy demand as a function of the source in the Mediterranean (2000 - 830 Mtep)

Figure 4. (right) Structure of the energy demand as a function of the source in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (2000 - 228 Mtep)

2. Importance of Demographic Growth in the Southern Mediterranean •

As regards demography, the population of the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (PSEM) should grow over a period of 25 years (2000–2025) from 242 million inhabitants in 2000 to nearly 340 million inhabitants in 2025—that is, a growth of 40% over the period in question, which is sizeable, particularly in terms of the associated energy needs. In the PNMs, the demographic dynamics is much less marked, and the population should stabilise around 206 million by 2025 (as against 201 million in 2000) (Figure 5).

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D. Gentile and S. Allal / Sustainable Energy Scenarios in the Mediterranean 400 350

PSEM

300

millions habitants

250 200

Nord

150 100 50 0 1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Source: Plan Bleu, OME, 2005

Figure 5. Demographic evolution around Mediterrenean

3. The Consequences for Energy: Basic-Trend Scenarios (OME) •

•

The OME has drawn up for the Mediterranean basin as a whole a basic scenario with a forecasting horizon of 2025. This “basic-trend” scenario, socalled, is based on the guidelines defined in the Mediterranean countries’ energy strategies and takes into account the countries’ demographic and economic growth. It enables us to project, country by country, the level of primary energy demands and structure by source. The scenario is a nonsustainable one in which there is no significant change in the growth of consumption, with priority given to energy restraint. Even though the scenario integrates the pursuit of a certain underlying technological progress (a fall of the order of 0.9% per annum in energy intensity), according to these projections the total demand in primary energy in the Mediterranean basin as a whole could be as high as 1,400 Mtep by 2025 (Figure 6). In relation to 2000, growth would be of the order of 500 Mtep, that is +65% for the period as a whole and +2.1% on average per annum, for an average annual GDP growth of 2.7% in the Mediterranean basin as a whole. Between now and 2025, the PSEMs should experience growth rates in their energy demands four times greater than those of the PNMs, corresponding to a growth of +350 Mtep, that is 3.8% per annum between 2000 and 2025, as against + 200 Mtep, that is +1.2% per annum in the PNMs. By 2025, Turkey will have become the second biggest consumer of energy in the Mediterranean. The relative share of the PSEMs in the total consumption of energy in the Mediterranean will thus grow from 10% in 1970 to 40% in 2025. This basic-trend scenario results above all in spectacular growth in the demand for electricity in the region. Primary commercial energy is consumed first and foremost to produce electricity (34% on average, and possibly as much as 40% by 2025). It is the form of energy that has enjoyed the strongest growth in recent years, thanks to the development of the industrial sector (new processes, automation) and improvements in living standards in the residential sector (electrical appliances, air-conditioning, etc.).

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•

Total electricity consumption for the Mediterranean countries has more than tripled over the last three decades, reaching nearly 1,5000 TWh in 2000, with an average annual growth rate between 1971 and 2000 far superior (+4.5%) to that of primary energy consumption or the GDP. According to this basic-trend scenario, the strong growths in electricity consumption in the PSEMs will continue, reaching approximately 2,800 TWh by 2025 (which corresponds to a growth of +2.5% per annum), with an eventual tripling of electricity consumption in the PSEMs by 2025 (Figure 7). Again according to this scenario, in all of the countries the number of electricity consumers progresses strongly, reaching by 2025 an average of more than 8,500 kWh per inhabitant in the PNMs, but only 3,400 kWh per inhabitant in the PSEMs. The gap between the countries on the opposite shores of the Mediterranean grows smaller, but remains sizeable (from 1 to 2.5). This basic-trend scenario, anticipating a very strong growth in demand, prompts one to consider two big types of risk that could lead to reorientating current energy choices in the Mediterranean: − the first is of a geopolitical and socio-economic character and concerns the growing insecurity of energy developments in the Mediterranean countries, linked to the question of the access to energy of present and future generations; − the second is linked to a foreseeable worsening of the impacts of production and the use of energy on the environment and health.

Faced with these two risks, strategies that favour a more sustainable energy development in the Mediterranean are desirable. They should be based on energy that is efficient in terms of supply and demand, and on large-scale development of low-carbon forms of energy. The important goal of decoupling economics/necessary emission in the region will only be reached by the comingtogether of numerous changes in life-style, production and consumption, in the nature of infrastructures (urbanism, transport, etc.), in improved energy efficiency and the use of non-carbon technologies. The question this raises concerns EuroMediterranean coordination of the effort required and the public policies to be applied for the deployment of such sustainable strategies for the region. 2800

1600

2400 2000 1600

P S EM

800

P S EM

1200 800

400

NORD

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

NORD

400 2025

TWh

Mtep

1200

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Source: OME, 2004

Figure 6. (left) Trend scenario for primary energy consumption in the Mediterranean

Figure 7. (right) Trend scenario for primary electricity consumption in the Mediterranean

2025

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4. Sustainable Scenario for the Region •

By way of illustration, the OME has sought to quantify the benefits of orientations of this kind, by means of a volontarist scenario that can be distinguished from the basic scenario by: − exploitation of a reservoir of economies of possible energies to the tune of 20% to 25% of the total energy demand, a perfectly “realistic” reservoir in the light of currently available techniques; − a more rapid development of renewable energies: 15% of primary energy output by 2025 (excluding biomass), as against 8% in the basic scenario, and 40% of electricity production, as against 20% in the basic scenario. These goals have been differentiated according to country. Comparing the two scenarios (volontarist and basic-trend) yields the following: − an energy intensity falling twice as fast, by 1.6% per annum; − an economising of energy of 208 Mtep per annum by 2025, equivalent to approximately half the foreseeable growth in demands between 2000 and 2025. 60% of this reservoir concerns the PSEMs, and 40% the PNMs ; − a 20-point fall in the average dependancy index of the Mediterranean countries in relation to the basic scenario by 2025. Overall, for the basin as a whole, it should fall from 34% to 18% between 2000 and 2025, whereas it should rise to 38% in the basic scenario by 2025; − sizeable financial economies, estimated at $450 billion for the period in question; − notable reductions, in the region of 25%, in CO 2 emissions linked to the Mediterranean countries’ energy activities. Needless to say, these orders of magnitude have no predictive value. They merely underline how much room for manoeuvre there is when it comes to energy restraint. They also illustrate, in quantitative terms, the high stakes involved in possible alternative scenarios that simultaneously reduce vulnerability to a variety of geopolitical, socio-economic and environmental risks. This volontarist scenario also shows how important it is to act quickly. Given the inertia of energy systems and the irreversability of certain structures, the choices we make today are crucial. Whichever scenario we envisage, and regardless of national policies, cooperation—and Euro-Mediterranean cooperation in particular—can play a very important role in favouring the development of such a sustainable scenario for the region.

Session 3 Participation in International Projects: SESAME Convener: Herwig SCHOPPER Chairman of SESAME Council, Geneva Former Director General of CERN

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SESAME – Synchrotron Light for Experimental Science and Applications for the Middle East19 Herwig SCHOPPER Chairman SESAME Council Abstract. SESAME is an international centre for research being set up in Jordan, near Amman. It will promote science and technology in the Middle-East by making available a facility for synchrotron radiation which can be used for research in many domains. At the same time, it will offer invaluable opportunities to develop cooperation and solidarity in the troubled region through joint efforts in science.

SESAME is an international centre for research being set up in Allaan (Jordan) situated 30 km from Amman, Jordan, following the model of CERN. It will promote science and technology in the Middle-East by making available a facility for synchrotron radiation which can be used for research in many domains, e.g. physics, material research, environment, archaeology, biology and even medicine. It will, at the same time, offer invaluable opportunities to develop cooperation and solidarity in the troubled region through joint efforts in science. In the long run it will contribute to establish a basis of know-how which will be indispensable to tackle also more general problems of the region. It has the following two main objectives: 1. 2.

promote science, technology and applications in the region, create confidence and improve the mutual understanding between partners of different traditions, religions and mentalities (“science for peace”) This will be achieved by • • • • •

Creating a centre of excellence for interdisciplinary research Promote the scientific international collaboration with the main criterion of scientific excellence Training of scientists, students, technicians and even administrators Attract scientists working abroad (reverse brain drain) Promote the development of applications and high-tech industry

The sources of synchrotron radiation have become in the whole world extremely useful tools for research. They are important for the long-term development of 19

Original text in English.

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countries like improving the general conditions of life, reduce unemployment and education. Even a small fraction (1 or 2%) of the funds which are spent for short-term problem (e.g. infrastructures for roads and water) would be sufficient for such longterm projects. Like CERN, SESAME has been created under the auspices of UNESCO as an autonomous international laboratory by a decision of the Executive Board of UNESCO (Spring 2002) that qualified SESAME as a “quintessential UNESCO project combining capacity building with vital peace-building through science” and described it as a “... model project for other regions....”. UNESCO is the depository of the Statutes of SESAME. These Statutes came into force in April 2004 when six countries notified the Director-General of their wish to join the Centre and their acceptance of the Statutes. From 1999 until the Statutes came into force in April 2004, a number of countries participated in the work of the Interim Council (IC) that had been set up to take the necessary measures to prepare the establishment of the Centre. They did so either as Members or Observers of the IC. Following the formal recognition of the Centre by UNESCO in April 2004, most of the countries having participated in the IC confirmed their membership status in what then became the permanent Council of SESAME, namely Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Pakistan, the Palestinian Authority and Turkey. Some countries are still in the process of doing so e.g. Morocco, Cyprus and Iran. Iraq has recently asked to become a Member. Germany, Greece, Italy, Kuwait, the Russian Federation, Sweden, UAE, the UK and the USA are Observers. France, Spain and Japan are also shortly expected to become Observers. Other countries have expressed interest in becoming members. The basis for choosing Jordan as Host State was the assurance that all scientists of the world would have free access to the Centre, and the commitment by the Government of Jordan to provide the land, the existing buildings on the land, as well as the funds for the construction of the building to house the facility. H.M. Abdullah II, King of Jordan, strongly supports the project. Jordan and SESAME have signed a Seat Agreement guaranteeing SESAME privileges similar to those CERN has been given by its Host States, e.g. tax-free salaries. A tripartite cooperation agreement has been signed between Jordan, CERN and SESAME. Some countries have to acquire a new mentality having become a Member of an international organisation. They have to learn that they are “owners” of the centre even if it is not located in their own country. Each member, independent of its geographical location, has the same rights as far as the decision taking (definition of programmes, appointment of directors, etc), utilisation, recruitment of staff and industrial contracts are concerned. A conceptual design for the SESAME machine with a final energy of 2.5 GeV has been approved using components of the BESSY I storage ring and injector system which stopped operation in Berlin at the end of November 1999 and which were donated by the German government. These components were shipped from Germany to Jordan where they are being kept in trust by the Jordanian Ministry of Education until the building to house the Centre has been completed. Funds for the up-grading of the machine are being negotiated with the European Commission. SESAME will be a fully competitive 3.generation synchrotron radiation facility comparable to many similar machines in the whole world, but it will be the first such machine in the Mediterranean region and the Middle East.

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The construction work of the building that is to host the Centre started in August 2003 and is expected to be ready in fall 2006. The installation of the injector system will then start immediately. Beamlines for the first phase of exploitation have been identified in close cooperation with potential users. Contacts with the users’ community are assured by four advisory committees (Beamlines, Scientific, Technical and Training Committee) which have organized a number of users’ meeting and workshops. Beamlines will have to be financed from outside the normal budget. Funds for beamline equipment are being sought from other organisations like IAEA. Some Members of SESAME have expressed their intention to take the responsibility for particular beamlines. Some components will also be obtained from other laboratories, as SLAC (Stanford Linear Accelerator Center) in the U.S. and Lure (Laboratoire pour l’Utilisation du Rayonnement Electromagnétique) in France which are donating components of beamlines from decommissioned machines. The Centre is managed by a Director (Minister Kh. Toukan, Jordan), an Administrative Director (H.Helal, Egypt), a Scientific Director (A. Baig, Pakistan) and a Technical Director (G. Vignola, Italy). It also has a core staff working on the upgrading of the machine. These are accelerator specialists from the region who have been trained in synchrotron radiation laboratories in Europe and the United States. The governing body of the centre is an international Council chaired by H.Schopper (Germany) and two Vice-Presidents (Dincer Ulkü, Turkey and Fawzy Elrefaie, President of the Egyptian Academy of Sciences). Training is one of the major objectives of SESAME, in particular • • •

the formation of young scientists and engineers of the region for the construction and operation of the machine, the training of scientists for the design, construction and operation of the beamlines, the education of potential users.

For this purpose fellowships and other support were made available by IAEA, ICTP, USA, Japan and some laboratories. From about 100 applicants from the region 20 were selected to spend a year or longer at European laboratories like Daresbury (UK), Lure (Paris), ESRF (Grenoble), ANKA (Karlsruhe), SLS (Villigen), Elletra (Trieste), DESY (Hamburg), Max-Lab (Lund). Eight experts were invited to stays in labs in the USA financed by DOE. A new training programme is under discussion with IAEA for which from 32 applications 9 scientists were selected already. The European Scientific Institute has accepted 9 researchers from SESAME members for the Joint Universities Accelerator School (JUAS 2005) in Geneva and because of the good experience they have offered to accept further young scientists for the 2006 schools. The National Synchrotron Radiation Research Centre (NSRRC) at Taiwan had funded three fellowships in 2005 and because of the satisfactory results they offered to continue the programme in 2006. Several workshops in different fields have been organized and users meeting take place regularly to keep close contacts with the potential users’ community. In conclusion it may be stated that SESAME has passed the threshold of no return, although some problems have still to be settled. It is expected that the SESAME machine will become operational in 2009. The more the realisation of the project takes

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shape, the more interest and enthusiasm among potential users but also funding organisation can be observed. It is hoped that Morocco will take a positive decision to join SESAME in the near future and Morocco could even play an important role in coordinating the activities in other countries of North Africa.

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SESAME Science Programme – an Example of Knowledge Transfer 20 Samar HASNAIN Molecular Biophysics Group & North West Structural Genomics Centre Abstract. Synchrotron radiation sources have been an important research tool over the last decades. Developed countries have numerous sources and it is important that Middle-east countries have their own to promote research in atomic and molecular physics, structural and molecular biology, material sciences, environment and archaeology. Scientists from these different disciplines and from different countries will then be in close contact, which can only be beneficial to sciences and peace in the region.

It’s a real pleasure to be here in Morocco and I’d like to give my bottom-line statement already that it is essential for countries such as Morocco to become member of SESAME if they have any aspiration to make the country independent of others as well as building an infrastructure compatible with a knowledge-based economy. What I want to really do in this talk is to show you how SESAME has acted as a real example of knowledge transfer from those countries that have the knowledge of building and exploiting synchrotron radiation sources to countries and regions where this has not been the case at all. One of the things Professor Schopper has already mentioned is that the “synchrotron radiation” sources have been growing like mushrooms; they do look like the top of a mushroom, as you’ll see from various pictures. Until very recently, I would say, about 10 years ago or so, they have been the privilege of industrialized countries, or scientifically advanced countries, as one may want to call them. In the last 10 years or so they have become much more a symbol of aspiration from countries that are what we would call emerging economies and I’ll give you some examples of those as we go along. So let me start from the last slide that G. Vignola showed (Figure 1). I feel that the SESAME team has worked very hard and can be proud that one is trying to work towards a synchrotron radiation source in the Middle East region where there isn’t such a facility, just like Africa. For a third generation source, as we saw in the example of G. Vignola, the characteristics are identical even in terms of emittence to what is being currently built in Canada.

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Figure 1. Flux of the radiation from the different SR sources of the 2.5 GeV SESAME. The numbers in mm in the boxes are the corresponding period length.

So, just to give you an idea of what we’ve been talking about, the first radiation sources started with electron machines like Desy, like Mina, like Frascati and in Stanford: they started with the exploitation of bending magnets. Bending magnets in the curved region have provided already 6 orders of magnitude more X-rays than possible with conventional sources (Figure 2). The second and third generation sources have been based primarily on what we call insertion devices, namely ondulators. And more recently ondulators in vacuum have been pioneered by the Japanese synchrotron radiation sources and now these have been used with other sources, and SESAME has definitely the aspiration of acquiring that in the phase-1 beamlines. And if you look at ondulators, one is talking of about 11 orders of magnitude in terms of the brilliance, which is available in the X-ray region. Many of you would know why the X-ray region is important and I will show you here a few examples, which will demonstrate in a graphic fashion the speed with which the brilliance is being increasing through the sources starting from the rotating anode X-ray tube. One of the beauties of the synchrotron radiation sources is that they are truly interdisciplinary centres. To show you an example of a developed facility, let’s look at the first dedicated X-ray source synchrotron radiation sources at Daresbury, which is where I work. Now what you see (Figure 3) is that the zones which are coloured are Xray equipment. Those which do not have what we called X-ray huts are exploiting VUV and soft X-rays. The X-rays are primarily used for material science and for biological sciences and of course for environmental sciences, while VUV and soft Xrays are used for atomic molecular sciences and surface sciences. So you see that biologists, material scientists and physicists are working in very close proximity and their mutual knowledge is transferred just by proximity. So these are true interdisciplinary centres, and this is the reason of the success of the growth of the synchrotron radiation facilities as the basic science infrastructures.

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Figure 2.

Figure 3.

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Let me go back to my first point. There are currently 54 light sources which are operational in 19 countries, and this is no longer a priority of the scientifically developed countries; many countries have joined in. One of the first was India, the late Indira Gandhi who decided to put synchrotron radiation as part of the development of the region of Indore. Brazil has built a very successful synchrotron radiation facility in Campinas. China has been running such a source and recently has given approval for a third generation source in Shanghai. And of course, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand all have third generation sources, and they have been seen as part of infrastructure essential for development of a knowledge-based economy. 10 extraordinary facilities are in construction, including the SESAME, in Spain, UK, Australia, and France. The characteristics of the Spanish source are very similar to what has been done and developed for Jordan. Now, just to give you again an idea of the impact of X-ray, one measure is to look at Nobel Prizes which have been awarded for works using X-rays. Since the beginning, 18 have been awarded right across scientists, so you have physicists, medicine and chemistry, all these major disciplines are benefiting from the availability of X-rays. More recently two have been awarded directly from the synchrotron radiation experiments which have been carried out in the last 10 years or so. The latest of these has been given to Roderick Mackinnon. His first experimental result was obtained in December 23 1997, Nobel Prize was awarded in 2003. Very, very rapid recognition. This work was done at two synchrotron radiation sources, Chess at Cornell which is a first generation source and at the Brookhaven NSLS light source which is a second generation light source. The previous Prize was given to Sir John Walker for the discovery of F1-ATPase, its structure and the mechanism of its formation and this was recognised in 1997. This was done on SRS, at Daresbury which is the second generation SR source. I just make the point that these two Nobel Prizes have been awarded for works with the first and second generation sources. Just please remember that because I will highlight that in the context of SESAME performance. As we’ve heard, the synchrotron radiation and X-rays have made a huge impact in structural biology. Since the first researches that have been done on haemoglobin and which deserved Nobel Prizes only 30 years ago or so, the size of these structures has increased. Virus structures could be determined in 1985 and the nucleosome and ribosome structures were obtained in 1995: the size and complexity of these structures is becoming tremendous. Around 1970 it was inconceivable that we will ever attend the whole molecular machine structure of such complex proteins. So not only the complexity of the structure has increased but also the numbers of the structures are increasing extremely rapidly. And in fact in the UK, the structure of the F1-ATPase acted as a catalyst for the next generation of light sources to be built in the UK, which is known as Diamond. No wonder Biology is a major component of what has been proposed for SESAME. So these are just examples. Each of these in my view are worth a Nobel Prize, it’s just a question of what your luck is. The largest structure to date has been on Blue tongue virus core which is made up of thousands of proteins and every single atom in this structure has been determined using X-ray crystallography using a third generation source, ESRF in this particular case. So now let me just give you what Diamond is (Figure 4): this is a VUV source of very large circumference, very high performance and of course the cost according to the circumference is very large. But I just want to come on the right hand side of figure 4 which explains that the first design and proposal for this facility was made in 1992, the

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funding was announced within 18 months of the F1-ATPase Nobel Prize, the site was decided between 1999 and spring 2003 and it will come in operation in 2007. So what you see here is the typical timescale for a scientifically advanced country where there’s a huge amount of scientific infrastructure for synchrotron radiation. UK was the country where the first dedicated structure for synchrotron radiation was built and it has taken 15 years. This is also the timescale that has been achieved for SESAME, and from that point of view, this is marvellous and in fact it is indeed praiseworthy to the counsel and everyone else.

Figure 4.

One of the major events in terms of the scientific program of SESAME that took place in October 2002 was funded by the Japanese, JSPS, who brought together the funding and the organisation necessary for what we call the first User Meeting which was highly successful. Through this and many other meetings, one has developed a scientific program for SESAME. So several hundreds scientists have been involved from the Middle East and from the wider region and they are on the best site and they have been put together and prioritised in terms of the six beamlines of phase one. The next user meeting is on the 5th– 8th of December 2005, the detailed program is on the website, I would encourage everyone from the Moroccan and the wider region to come and attend this meeting to look at the latest review of what is happening at the light source. Scientists at SESAME are divided up into 6 broad disciplines: structural and molecular biology, atomic and molecular sciences, which is basically physics, surface and interface science, environmental science, material science and archaeological science. Let me show you the types of insertion devices and the different regions which we’re going to use all the way from infrared to X-rays: we’ll have bending magnets, multiple wigglers and ondulators in vacuum (Figure 5).

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Figure 5. Phase One Beamlines

What you see again on the fore plan (Figure 6) is an intermix of what is taking place on this science facilities. You can see the beamlines with some details of the design, which has taken place. And what you see also are offline facilities of material science, biomedical labs, environmental and archaeology and physics. So you really see the intermix of different sciences and disciplines. I don’t have time to go through these slides, and I’m just going to give you a flavour of what is happening in terms of applications: this is the corner for physics, magnetic materials, memories for highly advanced aspects. Again in the context of environment, techniques such as powder analysis will be used at SESAME. Archaeological science is going to be an important area, which again has a tremendous influence in the whole of the region: tracing history that you could do here is of extreme importance in terms of cultural heritage but also for the politicians and the decision makers. Environment/ Archaeology

Physics

Material Science LAB

BIOMEDICAL LAB

Figure 6.

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So let me just come to some conclusion which is the bottom line and my inspiration of being involved in this project. If I look at the scientifically advanced countries synchrotron-radiation sources and their populations, and divide the total number for their population by the number of synchrotron-radiation sources then one comes to a simple conclusion, that these scientifically advanced countries have a synchrotron-radiation source for every 40 million population. If we compare it to the current existing members of SESAME we have a population of 305 million, in excess of that in the US and if we use the same ratio then we should have at least 7.5 synchrotron-radiation sources for these countries. Morocco has a population of 32 million and I think if Morocco wants to join in the knowledge-based economy it needs to invest in infrastructures of this kind. I believe that by becoming members of SESAME, they’ll be able to create many more synchrotron-radiation sources for the future in the region. And let me just finish with a quote of Abdus Salam which I think happily summarises the aspiration of this audience very eloquently: Science and technology are cyclical. They are a shared heritage of all mankind. East and West, North and South have all equally participated in their creation in the past, as we hope that they will in the future – the joint endeavor in sciences becoming one of the unifying forces among diverse peoples of this globe. Thank you very much.

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The Synchrotron and the Laser: are they Friends or Foes?21 Jean-Patrick CONNERADE Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, London, and Euroscience, Strasbourg Abstract. The purpose of the present paper is to provide a brief introduction to the applications of Synchrotron Radiation (and in particular the SESAME ring) in the area of Atomic Physics. Atomic physicists are usually among the first to become involved in Synchrotron radiation experiments, and atomic physics remains an excellent introduction to the subject area of synchrotron radiation as a whole.

1. General Remarks and Background The many-body problem of classical physics is unsolved. The reason for this is understood: it is a consequence of the occurrence of chaos, as explained by Poincaré: there exist no solutions to the classical orbit equations for three bodies in closed form. In quantum physics, the situation is much less clear. The granularity of phase space, due to the uncertainty principle, is believed to inhibit chaos. Classical chaos, in order to occur, requires an infinite divisibility along the lines of the celebrated ‘universes within universes’ first described by Blaise Pascal. Interest therefore attaches to two situations. The first is the study of many-body effects in quantum mechanical systems, and the second is the persistence of chaotic effects from classical to quantum systems. In performing such studies, it is desirable to remove all sources of confusion due for example to a poor knowledge of the potential, and to work with a fully scaleable system. Both reasons lead one to select atoms, first because the inverse square law is the best known law of force in physics and second because it is completely scaleable. In atomic physics, many-body effects appear in a range of energies between the Xrays and the optical domain. This range is entirely accessible to synchrotron radiation, whereas the laser can only cover restricted portions, which are useful but do not allow the full range of phenomena to be studied. It is therefore necessary to use both types of source, and to have a good understanding of their respective properties in order to exploit their complementary features to the full. A particular aspect of the expertise required to perform synchrotron radiation experiments is indeed their complementarity with laser spectroscopy. This is important to recognize, because it provides both a route into synchrotron studies and an essential background training for researchers, who can perform in-house experiments in their own laboratories before attempting to work in the environment of a synchrotron radiation laboratory.

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I will provide some simple examples to show that the two experimental methods are complementary. In some cases, we have even obtained our data by using both techniques, which allows them to be compared. I will not discuss the effects of high radiation intensity on the spectral response of atoms (multi-photon effects), since these are accessible by laser spectroscopy, but are still beyond the reach of synchrotron radiation studies at time of writing. Some of my examples are drawn from a review paper published in the Arabian Journal of Physics [1], and some others from a book recently re-issued by the Cambridge University Press [2]. 2. Examples drawn from Synchrotron and Laser Experiments on Free Atoms The most important wavelength range for atomic physics is the far ultraviolet and soft X-ray range, within which the simple approximations of the conventional independent electron model cease to apply. This turns out to be the most favourable range experimentally for many synchrotron radiation sources. Furthermore, the synchrotron covers all of this range, whereas lasers cover only a part of it.

Figure 1. Typical energy ranges for synchrotron radiation studies of atomic and molecular spectra

The main advantage of synchrotron radiation is the breadth of its radiation spectrum, which covers the full range from the infrared to the X-ray range essentially as a continuum. No laser is able to do that. However, windowless experiments cannot be performed under pressure, because an accelerator must function in good vacuum. The laser may then provide the only viable alternative. For instance, the example shown in Figure 2 would be very difficult to study with synchrotron radiation. In this experiment, a rather unusual perturbation of a Rydberg series was studied as a function of the pressure of a foreign gas introduced in the atomic column. This experiment would have been difficult to perform by using synchrotron radiation since it requires a buffer gas in the cell, and detection of very high Rydberg members by measuring the ionisation current using a thermionic diode detector, all of which are difficult to accomplish otherwise than by using lasers.

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Figure 2. Two-photon spectra of Calcium in the presence of a pressure of extraneous buffer gas. Notice the pronounced perturbation at high Rydberg members, which grows dramatically with increasing pressure of the buffer gas.

In fact, a simple way to tune a monomode laser is also to sweep the pressure in the oscillator cavity. If the cavity has been well tuned to a single mode, this procedure gives very good resolution, but unfortunately over a very limited wavelength range (typically, about 3 Ångströms for Nitrogen, but this depends also on the refractive index of the gas which is used). In Figure 3, the design of a homebuilt pressure-tuned Littman cavity which we have operated at Imperial College is shown. Notice that this is a simple, table-top device, in which a dye cell is pumped by an external fixed-frequency excimer laser operated at 308nm.

Figure 3. Design of pressure-tuned high resolution pulsed laser oscillator

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This type of laser can provide extremely high resolution in a very simple way in a small laboratory environment such as can readily be set up in a university. This enables researchers not only to complement a synchrotron radiation programme by higher resolution experiments performed ‘in house’, but also to train students on optical experiments before sending them to work in a synchrotron radiation laboratory. It is also very important for synchrotron users to know what can be achieved using laser sources, because the resolution available with a laser source cannot readily be achieved at the synchrotron. An example of a spectrum obtained using a tuneable laser based on the oscillator of Figure 3 is shown in Figure 4, which shows very high members of the principal series of Barium.

Figure 4. High members of the Principal Series of barium. The series can be followed up to a principal quantum number of about 120.

The next slide shows a direct comparison between the resolution achievable by coherent four-wave mixing using a number of laser beams to achieve short enough wavelengths, and by direct excitation using synchrotron radiation for precisely the same atomic spectrum. Note that two synchronously pumped lasers are required and that the tuning range displayed for the laser-based spectrum is only a few angströms. The higher resolution of the laser is not simply due to the optical components, but also in part to the higher flux of photons, which allows thermionic detection to be employed, and therefore yields much more reliable line profiles than one can obtain by photoabsorption techniques.

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Figure 5. Comparison between spectra of the high Rydberg members of the Magnesium atom obtained by synchrotron spectroscopy in photoabsorption (upper spectrum) and by coherent four-wave mixing spectroscopy using several laser beams (lower spectrum)

As it is showed in Figures 5 and 6, coherent sources can give tremendous spectral resolution, but of course their coverage remains very limited. Furthermore, as one exploits the almost inexhaustible wavelength coverage of the synchrotron source, by increasing the photon energy, to break into the more interesting range shown in Figure 1, high resolution becomes less relevant. Indeed there are many situations where it is actually not needed, especially in the ultraviolet and soft X-ray ranges, where synchrotron radiation is at its best. A fundamental limit for atomic spectroscopy is the natural width of a spectral line. In the UV and soft X-ray ranges, this is usually set by auto-ionisation broadening or by the Auger effect, not by radiative widths.

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Figure 6. Example of an autoionising line profile observed by laser spectroscopy

Consequently, we need to understand lineshapes, or more specifically: how shapes of lines are altered by interactions between overlapping or interacting profiles. These are indeed consequences of the many-body interactions. My next few examples will be taken from synchrotron spectra. In fact, one finds that there are many different types of line profile which can occur when autoionising resonances interact with each other. This subject has been studied a lot experimentally, and the observations using synchrotron radiation have revealed a rich variety of line profiles. Figure 7 shows the two basic types of profile, and is drawn from observations of both Xenon and Magnesium atoms in the autoionising range. The diversity of interactions is exemplified by the spectra of Figure 8, which show how spectral profiles of autoionising states can fluctuate in shape and width when they overlap. These changes reveal many interesting aspects of the many-body interactions, and are of great interest to theorists who wish to unravel the complexities of atomic spectra in this energy range. A full theory of the shapes of these interacting resonances has been set up, and is described, for example, in the book on highly excited atoms referred to previously. In this brief review, I will concentrate on experimental material, although some of the figures (in particular Figure 2) show theoretical curves which are intended to illustrate the ideal shapes calculated from the theory of interacting resonances for a wide range of possible parameters.

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Figure 7. The two basic types of resonance which can be observed in an autoionising Rydberg series are demonstrated by two experimental examples, drawn from the spectra of Magnesium and of Xenon.

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Figure 8. Various lineshapes observed in synchrotron radiation spectra of Thallium atoms. Note in particular the symmetry reversals which are characteristic of interacting line profiles.

When lines are very sharp, and occur in a suitable range for tuneable lasers, then it is usually better to turn to a laser source, which is why it is important to be familiar with both types of sources, and to perform experiments in two phases, using, e.g. one source (usually, the synchrotron radiation source) for exploration and the other (often the laser, if it is available in the required energy range) to complete the study. I now give an example of interacting profiles observed by laser spectroscopy. When performing such a laser experiment, which requires a long and tedious high resolution scan, it is an enormous advantage to have the synchrotron spectrum to refer to as the investigation proceeds. Figure 8 in particular shows an effect which was discovered using synchrotron radiation (the q-reversal effect): this is a flip in the symmetry of a series of autoionising resonances as a function of energy they pass through a very broad intruder. Indeed, this symmetry flip can be shown to occur at the point of maximum interaction, and there are some very general theorems which regulate the appearance and the number of such symmetry changes which can occur in an atomic spectrum. These theorems do not only apply in atomic physics, but can be extended to other subjects such as nuclear spectroscopy. However, atoms provide a particularly simple and mathematically ‘clean’ example, again because of the special properties of the scaleable inverse square law of force.

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Figure 9. Interacting autoionising resonances observed in a portion of the spectrum of the Ytterbium atom, showing how complicated changes in the line profiles are revealed by high resolution laser spectroscopy.

The very high flux of laser radiation into a narrow bandwidth obtained with synchrotron radiation sources (typically a kilowatt into a few gigahertz) allows ion and electron counting techniques to be used without compromising spectral resolution. By contrast, for ion counting with synchrotron radiation, a high flux machine with an undulator is desirable. Even then, sacrifices in resolution are inevitable, although the situation will improve with the new generation machines. To illustrate this point, I show data for Ca obtained at the DORIS accelerator with an undulator, and (for the same spectrum) with a coherent four-wave mixing method. First, in Figure 10, I show the Ca spectrum obtained with a thermionic diode at the DORIS undulator, using a chopper for phase-sensitive detection. From Figure 10, one would not suspect the enormous complexity underlying the Ca double excitation spectrum, which only emerges when one attempts a high resolution scan (see Figure 11) by laser spectroscopy.

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Figure 10. Spectrum of double excitations in Ca obtained by thermionic diode detection, using a chopper for phase-sensitive detection at the Doris undulator.

Figure 11. The underlying complexity of the doubly-excited spectrum of Ca.

Even Figure 11, which actually reveals over part of the energy range the emergence of ‘quantum chaos’ triggered by many-body interactions, does not do full justice to the detail which can be extracted by laser spectroscopy, as Figure 12 shows, which only contains a tiny portion of the most regular part of the spectrum in Figure 11.

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Figure 12. A tiny portion of the spectrum of Fig 11, obtained by coherent four-wave mixing spectroscopy at Imperial College.

Nonlinear four-wave mixing is a rather complex trick to extend the wavelength range of lasers. It allows beautiful details of a spectrum to be seen, provided its basic features are already known by synchrotron spectroscopy. Without prior knowledge of the spectrum achieved by using synchrotron radiation, it would be almost impossible to set up such a complex investigation. As another example of the complex effects which have been discovered by combining synchrotron radiation and laser spectroscopies, I give the vanishing fluctuation effect, which is illustrated in Figure 13, from the spectrum of barium.

Figure 13. The vanishing fluctuation effect

As one enters the range of inner shell spectroscopy, it becomes more and more difficult to use lasers to perform fine studies. In the following example (Figure 14), we see a rather high resolution spectrum obtained by multi-colour laser spectroscopy. This is probably as far as one can go by this technique, and the range covered then becomes so small that there is not much one can do using laser techniques.

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Figure 14. Example of multicolour laser spectroscopy

By way of contrast, I now show the full inner shell spectrum of Ca obtained by synchrotron spectroscopy (Figure 16). From this example, one may conclude that inner shells are hard to reach, with meagre results using lasers, but are ideally suited to be studied using synchrotron radiation.

Figure 16. The 3p inner shell spectrum of calcium by synchrotron spectroscopy

3. Experiments with Externally Applied Fields Another aspect of Synchrotron and laser studies is the exploitation of the polarisation of radiation to measure atomic oscillator strengths by using high magnetic fields to observe Faraday rotation. This is an extremely powerful method (the Magneto-Optical Vernier or MOV method, Figure 17), which was actually discovered by using synchrotron radiation. Both synchrotron radiation and coherent radiation sources are naturally polarised. This is a very useful feature which, again, makes them complementary.

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Figure 17. Magneto Optical Vernier pattern obtained by synchrotron radiation spectroscopy at the 500 MeV source of the Physikalisches Institut in Bonn

MOV patterns can also be obtained in the pulsed mode by laser spectroscopy, as shown in Figure 18. The study of such patterns can lead to a detailed understanding of the distribution of oscillator strengths in perturbed series.

Figure18. Oscillator strengths of the Ba Principal series

Finally, I give an example of an experiment which we do not yet know how to do with synchrotron radiation, although it might allow an important breakthrough to be achieved. The purpose of this experiment is to study ‘quantum chaos’ in three dimensions. The experimental layout involves a complex combination of laser and atomic beams, crossing inside a magnetic field, with a perpendicular electric field applied (Figure 19).

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Figure 19. Experimental arrangement for the crossed field studies at Imperial College (Hogan PhD thesis 2006)

The experiments with crossed fields have yielded an enormous amount of useful data relating to ‘quantum chaology’ (see the Stark maps of the diamagnetic spectra shown in Figure 20) but are limited to the investigation of bound states. The only way to extend the data would be to study photoionisation spectra of atoms in crossed fields. This, for the moment, lies beyond current experimental methods. Synchrotron radiation might well open up this new range of experiments, but further development of the detection techniques ill be required. Conclusion In conclusion, we can say that the synchrotron and the laser should be used together. To get the best results, use a laser at home and travel to a synchrotron from time to time. That way, you can cover a spectrum more completely, and use the power of the laser in the windows which are available. Also, you can go to a synchrotron source feeling confident about the experiment because it is familiar.

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Figure 20. Example of a Stark map for the diamagnetic patter of a Rydberg atom placed in crossed electric and magnetic fields. The data are obtained around principal quantum numbers of 52-55.

Acknowledgements The work described in this brief review owes much to a number of colleagues and former students who have contributed to it over many years. In particular, I would like to mention Professor M.Aslam. Baig (currently the Scientific Director of SESAME), Dr. Shahid Farooqi, Dr. Bakri Abdulla and Mr Stephen Hogan. Financial support for this research has come from a variety of sources, including The European Space Agency, the Deutscher Forschungsgemeinschaft, the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung, the Bundesministerium für Forschungs und Technologie, the Royal Society of London and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. References [1] [2]

J.-P. Connerade K.S. Bhattia and Y.Y. Makdisi, Spectroscopic Applications of Lasers, The Arabian Journal of Science and Engineering, 17 (1992), 191. J.-P. Connerade, Highly Excited Atoms, The Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998 (re-issued as a paperback in 2005) ISBN-13 978-0-521-01788-6 and IBSN-10 0-521-01788-2.

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Other Contributions SESAME: Civil Construction and Machine Parameters Gaetano VIGNOLA SESAME, Jordan No written contribution Presentation: 25 slides in English * Condensed Matter Studies in Morocco Abdellah BENYOUSSEF No written contribution Presentation: 33 slides in English

Session 5 From Food Security to Food Safety, Constructing a Euromediterranean Area Convener: Bernard BACHELIER Director of FARM, Paris

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Demographic Perspectives, Changes in the Agricultural and Food Situation in the Mediterranean Region: Questions for Research22 Vincent DOLLÉ Director of CIHEAM-IAMM 23 Abstract. The steady growth of the population in the Mediterranean region, which grew by 150 million inhabitants between 1975 and 2000, is the result of very different demographic dynamics between the northern countries, on the one hand, and the southern and eastern countries, on the other hand. This demographic growth has been accompanied by heavy urbanization and concentration in the coastal zone. Other disparities are developing between the northern Mediterranean countries and the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (the SEM countries), especially in terms of economic growth and human development. Poverty strongly affects the rural sector of the SEM countries, the majority of whose inhabitants live from an often family-based agriculture with unpredictable results. The pressure on the resources of the Mediterranean region is growing. The dependence of the SEM countries for basic food products is strong and the recourse to imports is growing. In this paper, data is presented to give a better idea of the state of food safety and food security for the countries of the Mediterranean region. Complementary research paths between the north and south sides of the Mediterranean are envisaged, in order to reduce the disparities and build a veritable Euro-Mediterranean rural entity benefiting from new basic knowledge produced by a network of regional research and higher education institutions working together in order to promote sustainable rural development. Keywords. Mediterranean, sustainable agriculture, population, demography, resources, trade, globalization, Euro-Mediterranean entity, agri-food, agronomic science, food security, food safety.

1. Mediterranean Population: Retrospective Analysis of its Changes and 30-Year Demographic Projections In a half-century the population of the countries surrounding the Mediterranean grew by 150 million inhabitants; it went from 300 million in 1975 to 400 million in 1995, then to approximately 450 million in 2000 (see Figure 1). The organization Plan Bleu’s past population data and projections for the future lead them to an estimate of more than 500 million inhabitants in the Mediterranean region in 2025. Analyses done by the Original text in French, translated in English. E-mail: [email protected] IAMM (Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier), 3191, route de Mende, 34093 Montpellier Cedex 5 (France). Tel. +33 (0) 4 67 04 60 10, Fax + 33 (0) 4 67 04 60 75. 22 23

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United Nations and then used in the work of CIHEAM24 place the population of the region at approximately 700 million toward 2050.

Population of Mediterranean Countries Retrospective and demographic projection from 1970 to 2025 Population in millions TOTAL; SOUTH and EAST; NORTH →Countries of the North: Spain, France, Monaco, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Greece, Croatia, Bosnia, Yugoslavia →Countries of the South and East: Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Cyprus →Total Figure 1. Population changes on the north and south sides of the Mediterranean, 1970–2025. Source: Plan Bleu 2000, Plan Bleu 11 booklet.

This overall strong demographic growth of the Mediterranean basin is however the result of demographic dynamics that are quite different in the north and south, as in the east of the Mediterranean. More precisely: by countries of the north 25 we mean the countries of Mediterranean Europe as well as the Balkans. The southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEM) countries26 include the countries of the Maghreb and of the Near and Middle East. 24 See Agriculture et alimentation en Méditerranée. Les défis de la mondialisation, Mohamed Salah Bachta and Gérard Ghersi, 2004. 25 Countries of the north: Bosnia, Croatia, Spain, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, and Yugoslavia. 26 Countries of the south and east (SEM): Algeria, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, and Syria.

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In the northern Mediterranean countries, demographic stability is accompanied by an aging of the population and an overall stabilization of births. In these countries, more than one person in two will be more than fifty years old in 2025. This weak demographic growth is to be found in the majority of the countries in the zone, with even, for some of them, a drop in the number of inhabitants. On the contrary, in the SEM countries, strong demographic growth can be seen leading to a tripling of the population in a single generation. The population in these countries is mostly young and the demographic transition that would progressively lead to a stabilization of growth is not expected before 2025 (Figure 2: Population changes in the Mediterranean region (1950–2050), source: United Nations). In 2000, the northern countries made up 70% of the population. In 2025, it’s the SEM countries that will constitute 60% of the Mediterranean population. Millions d’habitants 700 600 500

Méditerranée 400

Nord Sud

300 200 100

1 950

1 970

1 990

2 010

2 030

2 050

Figure 2. Population changes in the Mediterranean region (1950–2050)

A more precise analysis of the location of these populations in the countries of the Mediterranean basin clearly shows that the occupations and the populations are concentrated in the coastal zone. This tendency is long established in the north of the Mediterranean, but it is increasingly true in the south as well. 3,392 built-up areas counted more than 10,000 inhabitants in 1995 (Figure 3, source: Plan Bleu and Géopolis); these built-up areas numbered fewer than 1,900 in 1950. In 20 years, the Mediterranean cities will have 100 million people more than they do today.

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Coastal Mediterranean city Inland Mediterranean city

Figure 3. The population of the Mediterranean region is concentrated on the coasts.

In the same period, a comparative analysis of the changes to the rural populations of the SEM countries and of the European Union (EU) shows a totally inverse tendency for these two regions up to 2000. The agricultural population in the SEM countries has grown steadily; it increased from 60 million inhabitants in 1960 to 100 million in 2000 (see Figure 4).

Millions d'habitants

Population rurale 120 100 80 60 40 20

Union Européenne Monétaire

19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00

0

PSEM

Figure 4. Rural population changes in the Mediterranean region. Source: World Bank.

Starting in 2000, the observations and the demographic projections put forth by the FAO and Plan Bleu indicate a stabilization of this population. In 2002, the majority of the rural population, i.e., 57% of the 189 million inhabitants, was concentrated on the southern side. After 2010, this rural population should decrease. These demographic

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dynamics, differentiated in the north, on the one hand, and the south and east, on the other, are accompanied by, for the entire Mediterranean region, a heavy urbanization with a concentration in the coastal zone. At the same time, the working agricultural population will be relatively smaller. Thus, more Mediterranean people living in cities will need to be fed by fewer Mediterranean farmers. Demographic growth in the Mediterranean region results in a number of impacts on various aspects of daily life, such as changes in the relationship between the working and the nonworking population and in that of the working agricultural population in relation to the total population. This demographic growth, primarily in cities, and the rural exodus that goes with it, have significant overall impacts on employment and revenues in the urban sector. The urbanization of the Mediterranean coastal zone will result, moreover, in associated changes in eating habits, nutritional practices, and food in general. Some of these changes could have significant consequences for public health (see Figure 5). The increase in this population comes, obviously, with an increased pressure on the environment and natural resources. In 2002, development pressure on agricultural lands was strong in the countries of the south; 40% of the Moroccan and 50% of the Turkish working populations were still farmers. The demand for energy 27 is also growing at a fast pace; this includes water demands for agriculture but also for domestic, industrial, and tourism-related use. The risks of social instability have thus also increased, and, as we will show in detail, the SEM countries will have to resort more and more to food imports to meet the needs of their populations. How should these challenges be properly met if the current disparities in the production of wealth from economic and human development among the north, the south, and the east stay the same? 2. Economic Development and Living Standards The total gross national product (GNP) of the Mediterranean region was 4 trillion dollars in 1995, but 90% of this GNP came from five countries of the European Union in the region which represented only 40% of the population. France produced 40% of this wealth, Italy 32%, Spain 15%, and Greece 5%. If the current growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries of the region stays the same, in 30 years the less than a third of the Mediterranean population living in the north will create and possess nine times more wealth than the two-thirds of the Mediterranean population living in the south (data from Plan Bleu and CIHEAM). The growth of the GNP by country is high for all the SEM countries; it has remained at more than 4% per year from 1975 to 2000, while, for the same period, it was 2.5% for the EU countries (see Table 1, source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2003). In the same period, the growth of the GNP per inhabitant was low; this is directly linked to the influence of the demographic growth.

27 According to the scenarios of Plan Bleu reported in Courrier de la Planète, n° 73, 2004, the energy demand of 820 million tons of oil equivalent in 2000 will increase by 40 to 70% according to different scenarios by 2025.

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Table 1. Median annual GNP growth rate, for GNP per inhabitant and for the total population (period: 19752001)

GNP

Population

GNP/inhabitant

4.29 2.44

2.44 0.47

1.81 1.96

Algeria Cyprus Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Malta Morocco Syria Tunisia Turkey

3.10 6.66 5.98 4.25 6.04 3.04* 5.76 3.78 4.37 4.78 3.66

European Monetary Union

2.46

SEM Countries France

2.65 0.89 2.37 2.47 4.17 1.60 0.75 2.11 3.26 2.20 2.17

0.35

* 1988–2001 for Lebanon. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2003.

0.43 5.72 3.53 1.73 1.79 1.24 4.98 1.64 1.08 2.52 1.46

2.10

The GDP per inhabitant is 10 times lower in Algeria than in Italy; 30 times lower in Egypt than in France. The disparities in the production and distribution of wealth between the north and the south lead us to distinguish three levels of human development: the very developed, essentially “European” Mediterranean; a littledeveloped Mediterranean (Syria, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt); and, between the two, the moderately developed Mediterranean (the Balkans, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Turkey). The living standards of the inhabitants of the SEM countries are stagnant. The population living below the national poverty line was growing in many countries in the final years of the 20th century (see Table 2, source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2003). The data for several countries in the Maghreb and Egypt show that this population is larger in rural areas than in urban areas, and confirm moreover that the situation hasn’t reversed much in 10 years. Taken as a whole, the poverty rate is increasing in the majority of countries. Poverty in rural areas is still present, with its consequences in terms of education and health for the rural population. This situation doesn’t help much to reduce the gap between the coastal zones and the interior zones, the latter of which are getting poorer and more marginalized. The median human development index (HDI) for the Mediterranean was 0.79 in 200228 in comparison with a median world HDI of 0.72.

28 Source: PNUD. The HDI calculated for each country has a value between 0 and 1. In 2002, it was at more than 0.9 for France, Spain, and Italy; less than 0.7 for Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco.

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Table 2. Population living below the national poverty line* in %

Year Algeria

1988

Egypt Jordan

1995 1991

Tunisia

1990

Morocco 1990

Rural

Urban

Total

23.3 nd

22.5 nd

22.9 15

2000 1997

13.1

3.5

7.4

1995

16.6

18

7.3

7.6

12.2

13.1

Year 1995

1999

Rural

Urban

Total

nd nd

nd nd

16.7 11.7

30.3

27.2

13.9

14.7

12

3.6

22.6

19

7.6

* National poverty line = set in relation to the median standard of living in each country. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2003.

A few countries attract the majority of foreign direct investment (FDI), which, overall, remains at a low level in the Mediterranean region. The SEM countries attract just 2% of worldwide FDI while 4% of worldwide FDI is directed at developing countries. 45% of the flow of FDI to the SEM countries since 1995 has been directed to Turkey, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. In this context of globalization, the EU remains however the primary investor in countries of the region, even if these countries are not developing their ability to attract this FDI. A significant part of revenues in foreign currencies of the SEM countries is tied to tourism, the impact of which on the growth of the GNP of these countries is increasing. Revenues from tourism contributed to more than 1% of the growth of the GNP in 1980; this contribution grew to more than 4% in 2001. Although 220 million tourists per year in the Mediterranean basin represents 30% of global flow, this rate hasn’t grown much in 10 years for the SEM countries; the touristic attractions of the SEM countries remain subject to active conflicts among certain countries in the Near East. Finally, in the agri-food industry sector, which also contributes to the GDP, the growth rate, around 2 to 3%, has remained steady over a long period.29 An increase in the performance of this sector would require improvements in companies’ management methods; some financial restructuring would help, but improvements in agricultural production would also guarantee the quality and availability of raw materials for the processing industry. It would also be useful to put in place procedures for the traceability of products that are indispensable to the conquest of high added value markets for local high-quality products whose origin can be guaranteed. Shrinking the economic gap between the north and the south is going to require very determined cooperative efforts. What role can the agricultural sector play in changing this situation? 3. Food, Consumption, and Importation The behavior of the Mediterranean consumer is influenced by lifestyle. The urbanizing population is increasingly attracted to the European—or, more generally, Western— style of consumption and distribution. This population, mostly quite young, makes socalled modern choices; their tastes are formed more and more outside the family unit. The Mediterranean and SEM consumer is, in addition, very susceptible to advertising and to the lifestyle displayed on Western television. More women are participants in 29

Source: Agri.Med, Annual report, 2004.

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the economy starting in university (54% of university students in Tunisia since 2004 are… women). Women work increasingly outside the home. Family size is shrinking and, as a result, meal preparation is changing, simplifying, and standardizing. However, the various Mediterranean eating patterns (see Figure 5) are still clearly different from the average Western eating patterns (MCAO).

Grains and root crops Sugar and Honey Fruits and vegetables Fats Legumes Milk and milk products Fish Meat and eggs Figure 5. Mediterranean eating patterns, Agri.Med CIHEAM. 2005 Annual Report.

As the different models of eating patterns show, people on the south side of the Mediterranean consume more grains and root crops, more legumes, and sometimes more fish; on the other hand, they often consume much less meat, milk, dairy products, and fat. This model is often called the Cretan diet; it should be noted that this consumption model practiced by the peasant of Crete was often accompanied by a lot of physical exertion. The Cretan diet is the paradigmatic model to be achieved by many urban Westerners, who are often overweight from a young age30 and are more inclined to sit in front of the television for three hours a day than to expend enough physical effort to work off the surplus calories they’ve eaten. Diets in the south and east of the Mediterranean basin are a good thing that should be preserved, not least for the wealth and diversity of many local products. These products are the result of culinary traditions inherited from all the civilizations that have passed through the Mediterranean region, progressively enriched by new foods originating in Asia and the Americas. This extensive culinary repertoire is still fairly well transmitted from one generation to the next; meals, even frugal meals, are still quite structured and convivial. The Mediterranean diet unites pleasure and health, authenticity, local and quality products. It should thus be conserved as a nutritional and social good.

30

In 2004, one child in six in France was overweight.

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V. Dollé / Demographic Perspectives, Changes in the Agricultural and Food Situation

To satisfy sharply growing domestic food needs, the national agricultural and agrifood industries must be increasingly supplemented by heavy importation. For the SEM countries, the total consumption of grains doubled from 1980 to 2004; this represents at present a volume of more than 100 million tons, 60% of which meets the needs only of Turkey and Egypt. The domestic production of grains in the SEM countries covered, in 1980, 75% of needs. This rate went down to 65% in 2002. In fact, the SEM countries’ dependence on grain imports is increasing. Milk consumption for the same region went from 18 million to 25 million tons. If meeting food needs is getting better on the whole, individual consumption remains low, essentially tied to the still slowly improving living standards among the rural population and the majority of the urban population. All the SEM countries are already, or are becoming, heavy importers of agricultural and agri-food products. In 2000, wheat was the most imported product, and represented for Egypt and Tunisia from 20 to 30% of their food imports. Worldwide, food imports represent approximately 8% of total imports; for the SEM countries, they represent 11% of these imports. Food oils are significant imports for Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt; sugar for Morocco and Tunisia; tea for Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Algeria and Egypt are big importers (see Table 3). In Morocco 31 and Tunisia, the coverage rate of agri-food imports versus agricultural and agri-food exports is improving. On the other hand, in 2000, Turkey became for the first time in its history an importer of agricultural and agri-food products (see Table 3). Europe is the biggest supplier of agricultural and food products to the SEM countries, even though a large part of imported grain products come from the American continent. Likewise trade between Europe and the southern Mediterranean means that Europe is also the main importer of Mediterranean goods. Ten years after the Barcelona Accords, agriculture is still an anomaly in terms of the formation of a large market and the setting up of free-trade zones, whose impacts are varied for the countries of the south—some positive, many others still negative. Table 3. Changes in the agri-food import/export coverage rate 1981 1982 1983 1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

Algeria Cyprus Egypt 5

90

21

60

30

35

17

53

24

24

71

25

29

19

68

27

17

73

26

3

103

21

2

90

22

2 3

1

1

1

74

77

77

82

84

Israel Jordan Lebanon Malta Morocco Syria

17

18

14

69

71

74

73

68

29

23

26

25

18

31

16

276

20

96

38

43

255

22

17

113

97

81

83

1991

3

83

15

68

25

12

1993

3

4

65

70

14

18

62

58

27

35

39

12

12

1992

100

24

112

30

16

69

14

70

77

676

587

32

18

14

643

47

93

99

38

25

Turkey

51

1

2

42

38

21

1989

1990

58

Tunisia

13

94

119 77

79

37

57

255

177

40

240

51

118

37

155

96

187

63

122

56

145

31 In 2003, the coverage rate of exports by imports was 0.42 for Morocco, 0.58 for Tunisia, and just 0.01 for Algeria (source: FAO/CIHEAM-IAMM, 2003).

128

1994 1995 1996

1997

V. Dollé / Demographic Perspectives, Changes in the Agricultural and Food Situation

Algeria Cyprus Egypt 1

65

17

5

60

11

4 1

71 45

13 10

Israel Jordan Lebanon Malta Morocco Syria 55 56 55

52

56 53

1

52

13

53

31

37

2000

2

46

16

48

29

12

1999

1

52

14

51

36

104

13

104

86

44

88

100

52

90

73

10

1998

11

Tunisia

11

14 15

17

92

112 101

73

99

72

69

43

58

73

57

Source: CIHEAM-IAMM calculations based on World Development Indicators 2003.

Turkey 179

101

101

111

117

131 93

The SEM countries, which experience clear difficulties in exploiting their potential to export fruits and vegetables such as olive oil, find themselves competing with the northern countries. The domestic need of the SEM countries for basic products is creating a growing dependence on the countries of the north. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is sometimes justly contested without, however, a better alternative being put into place that would take into account all the functions provided by the agricultural sector. The question is, How to put in place a more sustainable Mediterranean agriculture that would sufficiently and healthily feed its inhabitants while preserving Mediterranean resources and lands, which are coming under greater and greater pressure? 4. An Environment and Resources Subjected to Strong Pressures, an Agriculture with still Uncertain Results Water is becoming an increasingly scarce resource. The data from Plan Bleu on water resources actually available per inhabitant and the projections for 2025 point to acute shortages both conjunctural and localized in certain countries (Morocco, Spain, Libya, Syria, Cyprus) in a few years. These shortages could become structural in countries with significant water needs, such as Egypt and Libya, starting in 2005. The situation would be less critical in Algeria, Israel, Palestine, and Tunisia, since these countries have lower water needs. The pressures are increasingly great on fragile ecosystems, with a growing loss of quality agricultural lands 32 linked to land clearing, erosion, and overgrazing. The cultivation of marginal lands can, moreover, endanger the biodiversity of these lands. Farming practices don’t change very much; there is a strong persistence of small farms 33 , very often parceled out. The microfundium remains widespread in Egypt. Access to agricultural services is difficult for farmers of the south and the east; obtaining credit to buy new equipment is not easy. Rural societies in the south remain vulnerable in view of the precariousness of their status. In this context, gaps in 32 34% of the land to the north of the Mediterranean basin is usable agricultural land, while just 9% of that to the south is. 33 In Morocco, 70% of farms representing 24% of usable agricultural land are smaller than 6 hectares.

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129

agricultural productivity are growing between the north and the south with significant differences between the value added per worker in the north and the south 34. Faced with the growing demand for basic food products not produced by the countries themselves, the agricultural sector in the SEM countries offers fairly uneven performances. In these countries, agriculture remains strongly dependent on rainfall. A veritable crisis in productivity of lands under cultivation and of animal farming can be observed there. However, intensive farming, based on irrigation, is developing at a higher rate: irrigated land went from 11 million hectares in 1960 to more than 20 million in 200435 without, however, covering basic food needs as evoked above. In this context, Mediterranean agriculture has several challenges it must take up, among them: − to guarantee food security and safety by bringing to market—both for the domestic market and for export—healthy, quality products, easily available and accessible; − to find global markets for Mediterranean products with high added value, that have a strong identity, with a certified geographic origin that could lead to a label for Mediterranean products; − to go beyond the strict aspects of increasing agricultural production and to look rather at the dynamics of local and territorial development, at the promotion of true professional organizations, at the role that actors in the production process play, at setting up negotiations, and at the working out of development charters; − to manage natural resources (fauna, flora, water, earth) and bring the negative effects of climactic constraints, such as aridity and its repercussions on erosion, under control. Finally, it has become necessary, in the north as well as the south of the Mediterranean, to take into account the multifunctional aspect of agriculture by adding other functions to its function of essential production, including natural resource management and development. The agricultural policies of the SEM countries, which are the result of policies of structural adjustment, of trade liberalization, of globalization, lead to the abandonment of policies of self-sufficiency, then to the withdrawal of the state and of support structures in production and marketing. Overall, the agricultural industries of the SEM countries remain vulnerable. The question that must be asked is, How can scientific research contribute to the reduction of these imbalances, these disparities? 5. New Scientific Research Challenges In order to contribute to the improvement of agricultural production in the SEM countries and to the formation of a new arena of Euro-Mediterranean trade, scientific research must take up several challenges: technical challenges first, but also challenges involving organization and the setting of priorities. 34 The value added per worker in 2001 was US$60,000 in France, compared with US$1,300 produced by the agricultural worker in Egypt. 35 Source: 2005 study, FIPA, CIHEAM-IAMM, forthcoming.

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Dealing with this situation, which could prefigure a crisis, is going to mean for agronomic science that it take into account new concerns allowing for the promotion of sustainable rural development. Work must be done to perfect new technical systems of reference, to innovate, to carry out technology transfer using a more global approach for the systems of production and the ecosystems into which they fit. A few examples: in grain cultivation, agronomic science and development structures should look carefully at the use of drought-resistant genetic material. Storage and conservation devices should be improved to enhance the value of both local and imported goods. Also, research into making bread out of grains should be undertaken for local grains. Several technical innovations are also anticipated: in supplemental irrigation for rainfed agriculture during periods of hydric stress, in the production of low-waterconsuming winter forage, in the enhancement of water used for agriculture, etc. Beyond these technical efforts, all aspects of agronomic science for rural development should take into account new transverse approaches linking agriculture, food, nutrition, and health. It is also necessary to look at the determining factors of how producers manage their lands, and, more globally, at rurality. It’s also important to analyze the effects of public policy, to take into account the withdrawal of state support and to make professional organizations aware of their responsibilities, to go from rural agricultural development to territorial development, and the growth of sustainable development. New organizations will be needed for research and training more closely linking public institutions, universities, and private partners in both the north and south of the Mediterranean. In the very short term, scientists should no longer be isolated, access to useful scientific knowledge should be facilitated, and research results should be published in media other than just international scientific academic journals with reading committees. This effort should be accompanied by reflection on the programming of the research and a more balanced allocation of resources for projects or teams working on priority issues, and also better shared among regional institutions. The objective of these research and development strategies is to develop skills, to produce reliable knowledge, to construct development scenarios and to propose more harmonious assumptions of Mediterranean development for decision-makers. Agronomic science organized for the whole of the Euro-Mediterranean region in conjunction with higher education could also take charge of a large interdisciplinary cooperative program for priority regional projects. New knowledge is needed for, on the one hand, the perpetuation of a family-farm-based agriculture which supports 75% of the rural populations of the SEM countries, and, on the other hand, the promotion of a more intensive, competitive agriculture that does not, however, ignore the environmental and health exigencies of sustainable development. It might thus be possible to construct a model of regional Euro-Mediterranean integration developing genuine complementarities reconciling food security and food safety with more harmonious development of the Mediterranean region.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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The Mediterranean, a Free-Trade Zone from 2010: what Consequences will this have for Agriculture, Food and Agronomic Research?36 Najib AKESBI Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II Abstract – At the Barcelona conference in 1995, it was proposed to set up a new partnership between Europe and the Mediterranean, aiming at a free exchange zone, but with some exception in agriculture. After 10 years, the balance is disappointing and a total free exchange zone will be detrimental for food security for the Mediterranean countries. Another partnership should be seek in which both sides of the Mediterranean find their advantages and food security and safety, through new ideas, like specialization of countries in specific food production and looking at farmer revenues instead of only food prices.

I think that, after these extremely interesting papers, my difficulty is going to be how to place myself so as to supplement what has been said. The hardest part will be to try to say what has not been said, or, at the very least, to say differently certain things which seem to me essential. I have been asked to try and imagine the Mediterranean as a free-trade zone from 2010, and to see what consequences this might have for agriculture, food and agronomic research. I shall try, then, to present my paper to you in three parts. In the first part, I shall try to set the scene, by which I mean that if, in the definition of the subject proposed, we mean to suggest that the agricultural sector of the Mediterranean will be a free-trade zone from 2010, the reality is different: yes, a free-trade zone is planned, but it will have to make do for the time being with limiting itself to industry, the flow of industrial goods. As for agriculture, it is still governed by the logic of the “agricultural exception”. In the second part, I shall try to set out and explain the consequences of this fact for agriculture and food in the Mediterranean. Finally, the third part will allow me to show that the alternative is not to be found in a free-trade zone but in what I call the “EuroMediterranean Region”, which should be built on two pillars that seem to me essential and which are called “complementarity” and “solidarity”. I shall take up the issue of research, which has been set out well by Vincent Dollé, but merely to situate it in the perspective of the Euro-Mediterranean region and to ask the questions that seem to me to constitute fruitful avenues of enquiry for the future. 36

Original text in French, translated in English.

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1. The Euro-Mediterranean Project of the Free Trade Zone: Industrial Free Trade and the“Agricultural Exception” The current Euro-Mediterranean project is the outcome of the “Barcelona process”. This process, begun in 1995, was initially built up as part of what was called the “renewed Mediterranean policy”—renewed because it aimed to go beyond previous global policy, with a number of innovations in relation to what had previously existed, particularly the notion of partnership, which broke with the notion of aid that had dominated in the past, the question of support for economic reforms, the development of a certain number of direct fundings, decentralised co-operation, and so forth. To understand the Barcelona process properly, we need to remember, I think, that the early 1990s was marked by the fall of the Berlin wall and the emergence of the PECOs, the countries of Eastern Europe. Such was the interest shown by western Europe in this part of Europe, which was emerging on the international stage, that in the southern and eastern Mediterranean a great many questions began to be asked, beginning with whether we weren’t in the process of becoming somewhat overlooked by history… The Barcelona process first came about, then, to deliver a message and affirm a commitment: Europe has not forgotten the Mediterranean and is proposing a plan which, on the face of it, looks very ambitious. The Barcelona declaration (made on 27 November 1995) sketched the outlines of that plan. Broadly speaking, the Euro-Mediterranean partnership will rest on three pillars. The first concerns the political and security matters supposed to organise “a common zone of peace and stability”. The second pillar is economic and is actually, in concrete terms, the free-trade zone, which is supposed to lead, through the benefits of trade, to the “zone of shared prosperity”. It is, it must be said, the most visible part of the plan and will move forward at a steady pace, according to a precise timetable. The third pillar concerns Cupertino in cultural, social and human affairs. This is the pillar that concerns scientific research, and since we will shortly be celebrating the tenth anniversary of the partnership that grew out of the Barcelona process, and therefore of the ten-yearly assessment, we cannot help but notice that it is one of the areas that have unfortunately been somewhat neglected. In concrete terms, the declaration and process have led to the signing of a certain number of accords, called the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership or Association Agreements. As can be seen from Table 1, the European Union has signed agreements with nearly all the eastern and southern Mediterranean countries (the PSEM), given that Malta and Cyprus are now fully paid-up members of the European entity. Only Syria remains to close the circle. In principle, these agreements are underwritten by a funding tool known as the MEDA programme and together form part of the European Union’s wish to assist the Mediterranean countries in their quest for development. That said, these agreements, as I just pointed out, initially involve a certain number of precise commitments to liberalisation in the trading of industrial goods, with a timetable for the removal of all tariff- and non-tariff barriers, generally over a period of 12 years. In the case of Morocco, for example, the removal of barriers begins when the agreement comes into force in March 2000 and should, in principle, lead to the complete free-trade zone in 2012. And so far, I can assure you, the tariff-removal programme has been carried out to the letter.

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Partner States Algeria Cyprus Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Malta Morocco Palestinian Authority Syria Tunisia Turkey

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Paraphs Signature Comes into force December 2001 22 April 2002 February 1997 Member states of the EU as of 1 May 2004 25 June 2001 September 1995 November 1995 In force since 2000 April 1997 24 November 1997 1 May 2002 10 January 2002 17 June 2002 Member states of the EU as of 1 May 2004 November 1995 26 February 1996 1 March 2000 December 1996 February 1997 Temporary cooperation agreement, July 1997 Negotiations underway June 1995 July 1995 1 March 1998 April 1997 Customs union in force

Table 1. Agreement of the Euro-Mediterranean Association, August 2005

Source: European Commission delegation to the kingdom of Morocco, August 2005.

Where agricultural trade is concerned, on the other hand, we cannot fail to observe that the two parties have chosen to abide by the “agricultural exception”. What the term “agricultural exception” means is that, because agriculture is deemed to be a very unusual and highly sensitive sector, involving first of all human food and by extension therefore the dietary security of the population, but also the balance of rural areas, the relationship between town and country, the preservation of the landscape and of the rural historical and cultural heritage, and so on—for all these reasons, agriculture, it is felt, should remain a special sector and should not, therefore, be subject to liberalisation. Instead, we make do with a partial, limited and controlled liberalisation, in the form of “preferences” in the application of favourable customs tariffs or more flexible forms of non-tariff barriers (quotas, timetables, target prices, etc.). Up until 1995, moreover, these preferences were granted unilaterally by the European Union to its partners in the South, without the latter ever being required to do likewise. Under the Barcelona agreements, however, the new principle that will be applied is simply one of “reciprocity”: henceforth, preferential access to EU markets must be duplicated by preferences in kind, if not on the same scale, where the access of European goods to the markets of the PSEM is concerned. It’s a matter of give and take. The PSEM countries, of course, have not in the meantime become developed countries, which would justify a degree of parity in the granting of preferences; in fact, at a time when the race for markets is accelerating and competition between the great trading powers is stepping up, this new orientation should be seen as a clear commitment on the European Union’s part to, at the very least, consolidating its positions in its old “stalking grounds”. What assessment can we give today of this Euro-Mediterranean partnership, which in the case of Morocco is more than thirty years old? A period as long as this gives us the distance we need for a well-argued, well thought-out and reliable assessment. As a matter of fact, figures and statistics have already been furnished in the previous paper which enable us to conclude that overall the results are negative. To say the least, agriculture in the South has not advanced much in two or three decades. Productivity in

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particular has remained very low in the South, while in the North it has grown considerably. Production structures, meanwhile, have changed, but are now completely out of step with the consumption model. Briefly, we find a model that struggles to export what it produces and has increasingly to import what it consumes. True, certain sectors of agriculture have their strong points and have managed, for example, to develop profitable and competitive export outlets; nevertheless, they run up against protectionist policies and practices which are a serious obstacle to development. At the same time, these self-same agricultural sectors seem incapable of producing enough to satisfy even local needs. In addition to their chronic and growing deficits, trade balances in the food sector broadly reflect this state of affairs: exports polarised on what, for the sake of brevity, we can call fruits and vegetables (some liken them to the hors d’œuvre and dessert of a meal), and imports monopolised by staple commodities: cereals, oil, sugar, dairy products, meat—the main course, in a word. This state of affairs is a perfect illustration of the dependence, the insecurity even, of most PSEMs in matters of food. Are these co-operation and association agreements responsible in any way for this state of affairs? Though there can be no denying, of course, each country’s burden of “domestic responsibilities”, in urging the partner countries to adopt production and consumption models that today have manifestly reached a dead end, the agreements have contributed significantly, to say the least, to sowing the seeds of the current crisis. This being so, the question we now need to ask is the following: is free trade inescapable? We need to bear in mind, of course, that all the objective factors I mentioned earlier remain and argue in favor of upholding the principle of an “agricultural exception”. At the same time, however, we can easily observe that the steam-roller of free trade is doing its work, and that, day after day, it is advancing. We can, of course, drag our feet for a few more years in this or that round of international negotiations; this or that “summit” may fail, this or that round of negotiations at the OMC last longer than expected—but let us make no mistake, the strategic thrust is clear: the world is moving towards ever greater liberalization in trade, and the ultimate goal of the promoters of that dynamics is nothing but free trade. In addition to the very buoyant context of the OMC, we should also note, in my opinion, the growing number of regional or bilateral accords that weigh ever more heavily in the balance of freemarketers. On this question, I would like to digress for a moment to illustrate my argument with the example of Morocco, or more exactly the free-trade agreement it has signed with the United States. If we put that agreement in the context of the various accords Morocco has signed with its other partners—in particular, with the European Union, of course—we notice that the first effect of the agreement is to commit the country to a sort of free-market escalation and rivalry. The agreement with the United States is meant to be a full-scale free-trade agreement, global and irreversible. Even in the case of agriculture it does not recognize an exception, and though the deadlines for removing tariffs on certain products seem long enough (between fifteen and twenty years), the course has nonetheless been set, and the planning for liberalization drawn up down to the last detail. Paradoxically, then, the United States in this respect today appears to be in a much more “advanced” situation with regard to Morocco than the European Union. This state of affairs will clearly not last long, and we can safely assume that when the forthcoming negotiations open in 2007 between Morocco and the European Union, the latter will do everything in its power to put an end to it. It is inconceivable that Morocco’s European partner will make do with a level of “concessions” inferior to that secured by the United States. Its “demands” will start,

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therefore, where the latter’s left off and will seek to go further. We are caught up, then, in a free-market spiral that will mean that, the more we open up possibilities for free trade with this or that partner, the more we will be obliged to do likewise for this or that other partner, and so on. All in all, then, I think that, if we assume that the “meaning”, not of “History” but merely of “this particular history” is for the time being perfectly clear, but that the movement in agricultural trade is a bit sluggish when compared with other goods and services, we can deduce from this that the next decade, if it does not turn out to be the “twilight”, will nonetheless mark a decisive break with the past. Between 2010 and 2020, we will not have completely free markets in agricultural trade, but we will have gone a long way down that road; we will have laid the foundations for free trade in the future, and above all we will have cast serious doubts on current protection mechanisms and destabilized the regulatory systems that have worked thus far and preserved certain balances. I see that the chairman is already telling me I have only ten minutes left, so I’ll try to speed up my delivery, or at any rate move on to the second part of my paper and try to answer the following question: what consequences will this have for agriculture and food in the Mediterranean? 2. What Consequences will this have for Agriculture and Food in the Mediterranean? First of all, let us take a look at deep-lying trends, those that have been at work for a long time and look set to continue for a long time to come. To save time, I shall not dwell on demography, since the subject has already been well covered by the previous speaker. A word about the issue of immigration: it is obvious that immigration will continue and grow more pronounced, whatever mechanisms and devices are set in place to try and contain it. This means that it will continue to poison EuroMediterranean relations, which in turn may mean that the first pillar I mentioned earlier, the political and security pillar, will continue to be strengthened at the expense of the other two pillars, which are more concerned with economic and social development. Immigration, too, then, will continue to cast a cloud over Euro-Mediterranean relations, if not to poison them. Above all, I would like to stress a point which seems to me essential: the size of the disparities, the asymmetry. If there is one term that characterizes North-South relations in the Mediterranean, it is the word asymmetry. Everything in the Mediterranean region is asymmetrical. We are in a rather peculiar situation in which partners who are already very disparate to begin with grow further and further apart the more they maintain their partnership! I present here some data that overlaps substantially with that put forward earlier by Vincent Dollé and has no need of commentary, since it speaks for itself. Take the GDP: 85% of the region’s GDP is in the North, and 73% of its agricultural GDP is also in the North, not in the South. Let’s go on to trade: 81% of foreign trade and 93% of agricultural exports are still monopolized by the small number of European countries on the northern shores of the Mediterranean. How about productivity? Broadly speaking, an employed person in the North produces 5 times more than one in the South. As can be seen from the following chart, which presents the spread of cereal yields in the Mediterranean, the disparity

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between the 75 quintals per hectare in France and the 8 to 10 quintals in Morocco or Algeria seems huge. We need go no further in listing indicators of the disparities between the northern and southern shores of the Mediterranean. But they all come together to show for which countries it remains risky, and so to speak insane, to want to put in competition agricultural sectors whose results are so different.

Figure 1. Cereals: disparities in crop yields around the Mediterranean

What is going on with the agricultural policies of the Mediterranean countries today? Briefly, we can say that, in the North, the successive reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy amount to a questioning of a policy that has been highly productivist and, at the same time, endowed with a highly developed regulatory system. That said, we still know very little about what is being put in place, since the reforms undertaken have done little to show their capacity to ensure the conditions of a viable redeployment of existing capacities. We still do not know, for example, what the impact will be—particularly on production—of the shift from a system of price regulation to one of income regulation. All in all, a system seems to have been dismantled, but we don’t yet know what is being set up in its place, still less if the conditions for its positive overstepping are being invented, particularly with regard to a well thought-out, multi-purpose agriculture. Oddly enough, and without wishing to overstate the matter, of course, this is more or less what has been done in the South. In the South, it is those famous structural adjustment policies that have destabilized a system that, for the sake of brevity, can be described as interventionist. The system fulfilled certain functions fairly well, but here, too, what is certain today is that a system has been destabilized that at least had the merit of existing, without so far being replaced by another system founded on the private sector and the market-place. The bridging mechanism that is needed in the

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private sector to lay the foundations for a sort of new production pact has still not been found. This is how things stand in these matters in both North and South, so that the great challenge of our time is to try and perpetuate a form of agriculture that is sufficiently “productive” to reassure and provide healthy food for the population of the Mediterranean, and, at the same time, sufficiently well-thought-out to preserve the resources and lands of the region. For the moment, it is liberalization that is at the top of the agenda, and the question that needs to be asked—and, indeed, haunts people—concerns its impact on agriculture. The question which has particularly engrossed economists in recent years concerns the impact of free trade on the different types of farming, on employment, incomes and production systems. Quite a few studies have been made of the subject, and some of them have even focused on Morocco or Tunisia. I have tried to sum up the most striking and consensual conclusions in five points. The first point is that there is broad agreement on the fact that the consequences of liberalization will be positive for consumers and negative for producers. The former will benefit from the fall in prices, the latter will suffer from the foreign competition. The second point is that we are going to witness even greater deterioration in trade balances, very often in the South, and food dependence will get worse. The third point is that the fall in income for producers will be slight. The studies honestly don’t show that incomes will collapse. The falls in revenue will be slight on average, then, though high for certain categories of producer and certain regions (medium-sized farms and traditional production systems). Oddly enough, small farm-holders are likely to pull through when they dispose of external revenues and tend to consume more than they produce. Large modern farms geared to exporting will generally come out on top because free trade enables them to take advantage of their competitiveness. Are these conclusions optimistic? In point of fact, the objective conditions that prevail, the underlying trends at work and the absence of any accompanying strategy or appropriate regulatory policies would seem to incline to a certain pessimism. The pessimistic scenarios could get the better of the optimistic ones. I now come to the question of food security, and unfortunately I note that I have very little time left to address the matter. Very briefly, I would like first to stress that this concept is not perceived in the same manner in the northern and southern Mediterranean. In the South, we still consider security in quantitative terms. For us, food security is first and foremost approached in terms of the availability and accessibility of food. This, incidentally, is also the approach of the FAO, which at the World Food Summit in 1996 declared: “food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. The existence of production, of products available on the market, does not of itself ensure food security: one must also be in a position to pay for those products in order to acquire them, which raises the question of income levels, of the population’s purchasing powers, especially of the poor, who can suffer from food insecurity not because the products don’t exist but because they can’t acquire them. In the North, on the other hand, the situation is different, even if there do exist “pockets of poverty” here and there. There, it is questions of quality that prevail. Food security basically means the sanitary security of foodstuffs, and, more broadly speaking, their relation to human and animal health.

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That said, it would be a mistake to imagine that the two approaches are mutually exclusive, and that in the South in particular the qualitative dimension of food security is not yet an issue. To be more precise, I would like to return here to the Mediterranean food model mentioned earlier, the famous “Cretan model”, a model that is indeed excellent from the standpoint of the quality of the diet, which is balanced and very healthy; the model of reference recommended by the OMS, the FAO and other international bodies. But what we are seeing today is a certain drift away from this model in both North and South. The developments underway are indeed unfavorable and worrying (see Figures 2 and 3). In the North—we talked about this earlier— globalization is accelerating the extension, the generalization even, of the dominant model—what, for the sake of brevity, I shall call the “Macdonalds model”, with a strong increase in energy contents, mainly shared out between glucides, lipids and proteins (in favor of animal products, sugars and fats). But, in reality, this trend is universal. True, in the South the average food model still remains traditional and distinct from that of the North. What we are seeing is more like an accentuation of the main traditional characteristics: cereals, dried fruit, simple sugars. For want of sufficient purchasing power, the consumption of meats and milk takes a back seat. That said, globalization is at work everywhere, perhaps more slowly, but the extension of the dominant model is also more than perceptible in the countries of the South. The habits of consumption, the practices described earlier in the countries of the North, can also be observed to some extent in countries like Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. And the directions in which consumption models in those countries are moving are just as worrying. With perhaps this paradox, which I have already pointed out: that the model of consumption is developing in a manner even more out of step with the model of production. To put it plainly, I would say that “poor food” precedes poor production; people learn to consume “Big Macs” when they haven’t even solved the problem of production. Their dependence is only that much greater. I stress this point because I have often heard colleagues from the North saying that, for the moment, the problem in our countries is merely “quantitative’. Whereas I say— whether for better or worse is of no importance—that the two challenges present themselves to us simultaneously: we have both a quantity problem and a quality problem with food.

Figure 2. Evolution in disposable income per inhabitant and per day in the North-Mediterranean countries (19632000)

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Figure 3. Evolution in disposable income per inhabitant and per day in the South-Mediterranean countries (1963-2000)

To summarise this part of my talk, I would like to say a few words about the Indicator of Food Quality Indicator (IQA), developed in the Mediterranean by Martine Padilla from work carried out by Gerber and others. The indicator is based on scores attributed to foods according to their quality in terms of the recommendations of specialised institutions. As can be seen from Table 2, the situation in the Mediterranean is not catastrophic, since in the end no IQA is higher than 13, the level beneath which the score is considered “very poor”. Still, it is none too reassuring either, for one notices over the years, between 1960 and 2000, a marked decline in the number of countries which had a good or very good score in 1960 and an average or poor score in 2000. This clearly means that, overall, the quality of food is declining. Years 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Type of IQA

Table 2. Number of Mediterranean countries according to IQA scores

0–4 3 1 0 0 0 Very good

5–6 4 3 1 1 2 Good

7–9 3 8 10 9 10 Average

10–12 3 1 2 3 1 Poor

13–18 0 0 0 0 0 Very poor

Quality is going down, but let’s take another look at “quantity”. Though the FAO’s forecasts up to 2025 do not foresee any “quantitative” security problem in the Mediterranean as a whole, the experts at the same organisation acknowledge that “regional” estimations are unreliable. At all events, there is agreement on the fact that if the countries of the northern Mediterranean risk facing qualitative food insecurity, the

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southern Mediterranean countries and some vulnerable categories of the population in both North and South may experience both aspects of food insecurity simultaneously. Let us now move on quickly to the prospects and to the last part of this paper. 3. For a Research Geared to the Project of a Euro-Mediterranean Region I said earlier that the vision behind the free-trade zone seems to me a poor prospect because in reality it situates the project solely on the level of the market. The problem is that when you are on the market you are already involved in competition. The alternative, one that is genuinely aimed at mutual understanding and the future, should be situated upstream of the process, that is, at the level of Euro-Mediterranean production and production systems. What does this mean in concrete terms? It means that production systems should be organized so that they complement one another. We should work to build rational sector-based complementarities. Where agriculture is concerned, I would say that the complementarities between North and South are easier to build than elsewhere, because they are founded on objective natural and competitive factors. For example, if Morocco enjoys a relative advantage with regard to certain fruits and vegetables, well then, it should be allowed to develop these products by opening up the European markets of the North as much as possible. If France, on the other hand, produces ten times as much wheat as Morocco, it seems only natural that Morocco should agree to part of its cereal supplies coming from that country or, more generally speaking, from the European Union. That is the approach meant by complementarity: not the “specialization” advocated by the classical theory of free trade, but a well-thought-out attempt at a rational organization of production for a whole region—in this instance, the Euro-Mediterranean region—taking into account economic factors, of course, but also political and social ones. This implies that both the European Union and the PSEMs assume responsibility for the economic, financial, social and even political consequences of that choice. Particularly as, in this perspective, food security would be collective because it would rest on the capacity of the entire “region” to guarantee its population both availability and accessibility to food under healthy sanitary conditions. The concept of collective food security would make sense because it would be part of an overall political and strategic vision and would rest on a collective project that would underwrite its viability. But let us be quite clear about this, complementarity calls for solidarity, and the project would only be viable if the transformations were assumed by all, according to his or her capacities and constraints, and accompanied by sizeable funding and regulatory systems. While awaiting this project, which is not only ambitious but, it has to be said, nighon utopian today, the European Union could begin, I believe, by amending the contents of the Euromed partnership. It could agree, for example, to renegotiate the association agreements of the Barcelona process on a new basis of “asymmetrical reciprocity” or bilateral “Special Differentiated Treatment”. The European Union could also extend the logic of the “Leader” programmes to the eastern and southern Mediterranean to help promote rural development and, by the same token, food security. Again, it could join forces with the PSEMs at those international bodies where their common interests are negotiated, notably the World Trade Organization. And there is no shortage of areas where common efforts could yield results: improved access to the markets of the North, the setting-up of an international fund to finance imports from net importing countries, the constitution of minimum public cereal stocks by the main agricultural countries,

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and so on. In exchange, the PSEMs could support the argument of a multi-purpose agriculture. Last but not least, how else can I end this paper than by posing precisely those research questions raised by the plan for a Euro-Mediterranean region, at least with regard to the agricultural sector to which I have paid particular attention here— beginning with the precise model of “Euro-Mediterranean Region” that should be promoted. What model of regional integration should we build? With what complementarities? How should the Mediterranean’s agricultural and rural areas be reorganized? What kinds of reconversion should we promote? What agricultural model is capable of reconciling food and health security? How are we to increase productivity in the South, while at the same time preserving natural resources and human health? How should traditional products be valorized? What kinds of solidarity should be established? How are regulatory systems based on price mechanisms to be turned into wage-support systems? How should agricultural and food research be organized for the Mediterranean as a whole, and their efficiency improved? As you can see, this opens a vast field for research, in keeping with the ambitious Euro-Mediterranean project that ought to be ours.

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Agriculture The Next EuroMed Frontier?37 Moncef CHEIKH-ROUHOU Associate Professor at HEC (Hautes Etudes Commerciales), Paris Abstract. Agriculture is becoming the new border between North and South of the Mediterranean, mainly because of subsidies paid to farmers in developed countries. Although it has been proposed to reduce subsidies, the problem can only be solved with a new partnership between North and South, but also within the countries of south Mediterranean themselselves.

I would first of all like to thank the three speakers who preceded me because the essential has already been said and so, really, I should need less time to say what I have to say, but I can sum up my impressions by saying that there’s good news and bad news. The bad news is that the situation is critical, and the good news is that it’s not desperate, but we’re going to have to find ways to continue to move forward. I am currently an associate professor at HEC in Paris, HEC whose logo has become “Local Roots, Global Reach,” meaning with local roots in France and a global reach. There are 44 nationalities represented in the MBA program where I teach, and my main interest is in the analysis of and participation in economic and financial, but also social and political, construction, between Europe and its neighbors, whether it’s the Mediterranean or the countries of the east. Today, agriculture is a theme very dear to us, but I’m going to maybe shatter the calm by saying: isn’t agriculture in the process of becoming the true new border between the countries of Europe and of the Mediterranean, or between the Mediterranean of the north and the Mediterranean of the south? I’ll recap very quickly what’s already been presented to emphasize one point: the agreements between the north and the south of the Mediterranean were really initiated starting with Barcelona in 1995. The Barcelona Accords have three components: − an industrial component, which is starting to take shape since within two years, Tunisia, the first signatory, and Morocco, the second signatory a few years later, will have industrial markets that are entirely European, and vice versa. The industrial producer in Casablanca, in Tétouan, in Tunis, or in Bizerte will have the entire European market at his disposal with absolutely no restrictions. So industry seems to be working.

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Transcription from oral in French and translation.

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− one component, which could have been taken as related to security, but which is political, is the insistence on stability around the Mediterranean. The main condition for this stability is the transition to parliamentary democracy. An Indian, also English and American, Amartya Sen, received the Nobel Prize in Economics several years ago. Among his writings, the main work that earned him the Nobel Prize was that in which he proved that the biggest democracy in the world, which is not the United States but India, had stopped suffering from famines the day it put in place a system of parliamentary democracy—it might not be perfect, but it’s a parliamentary democracy. Famine ceased to exist because the alarms were sounded very early within this system. That’s why it’s in our interests that this security-related component be understood in the broadest possible sense—real stability. − a human component: research, education, women, and the rights of men and women. This third component could actually be a bridge for what we could propose at the end of the presentation. Concerning the industrial component, at the moment, four countries, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Jordan, are on the point of finalizing their entry into this agreement by 2010—2012 at the latest since there’s a two-year grace period—and all four will be industrially European. Algeria, Syria, and Lebanon will follow. At the level of services between Europe and the south of the Mediterranean, no agreement exists. Everything has been left to the WTO, to GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services) and is in the process of being negotiated. If you want to open a consulting business, a lawyer’s office, a research center, it won’t fall under the jurisdiction of what has been prepared for us by the Euro-Mediterranean agreements, but under the jurisdiction of GATS. Finally, agriculture—I agree with what Professor Akesbi said—is a little bit forgotten in this story. Agriculture, which is today’s topic and which requires urgent attention, today, is not at all on the agenda for the building of Euro-Mediterranean relations. However, I’m going to try and insist on one point, and that’s the link between the treatment of agriculture and the fight against poverty, which is absolutely vital. I’ll start with some data (Table 1). Here are the amounts of aid which were distributed to farmers in the countries of the north, in the developed countries in 2001—it’s a few years old, but it takes time to reconstruct all this data from OCDE (the Office for Economic Cooperation and Development)—which amounted to approximately 251 billion euros. These are enormous amounts of money—you spoke about MEDA, and MEDA is 6 billion euros over five years. So we have here a “hit parade.” You rightly remarked that these amounts are not presented here by inhabitant, but by region. But anyway we find the EU leading the way with around 104 billion euros. The United States follows, with 55 billion euros and also, curiously enough, Japan with 53 billion euros, the main reason for which is that Japan considers its access to rice to be crucial and is ready to pay the price for it. We see Korea here for the same reason, and other countries we wouldn’t have expected to see, like Poland, which has a policy of reinforcing its agriculture. So these aid policies exist.

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Table 1. Subsidies paid to farmers in millions of euro

To come back to the important remark made by Professor Akesbi, if nothing is formalized between the North and South part of the Mediterranean on this subject, what remains? Normally what remains is the law of the market, free trade. I’m going to try and demonstrate that free trade isn’t there yet, and that free trade is not even easily attainable. I want to make clear that these figures represent the total value of transfers from consumers and taxpayers (government) to producers arising from agricultural policies, and I draw your attention only to the fact that these policies don’t date from yesterday, but from 40 years ago. So today, there was first an agreement between the countries of the north that we can summarize by saying that the compromise that was reached in fact limits the amounts of subsidies paid by the countries of the European Union to their farmers, and the implications of this compromise. But this agreement has implications: developing countries have continued to draw attention to the fact that these payments continue to hurt agriculture in the countries of the south. The slight change is due to the fact that most of the subsidies would today be based not only on the quantity produced by the countries of the north, but also on the quality, meaning there was the introduction of a criterion of food quality and of attention paid to ecology, which is a major element. The compromise is as follows: Italy and France, at the time of these negotiations, stood firm, as we saw recently between France and Great Britain, and ended up obtaining that up to 25% of these subsidies for grain and up to 40% of the subsidies for cattle production could be tied to the quantity produced, the rest being evidently tied to what was called the element of quality and of ecology. So the content “incitement to production” continues to be relatively present in the countries of the north. The implications are that, from this agreement: − first, other agricultural reforms could be envisaged; − second, there could be international investment standards not only in industry, but also, in the future, in agriculture; − third, this would allow the introduction of ideas—important for you, researchers and research centers—for patents that would be covered and protected in the most efficient manner possible; − and other elements which I won’t speak about today.

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At this time, in the north, there are two systems for the stabilization of farm revenues: − What is called the American system, established by the former American secretary of agriculture Brennan. The Brennan plan put in place, fifty years ago, a system that guarantees a price to producers. The American government fixes a price, the producers produce, sell, and whatever they don’t sell on the market, the state buys at this price, and they fill sacks which we’re all familiar with, with “shake hands” and the American flag behind them. This system is founded on the price starting from a target price, and we’re going to see what the target price is. − The European Union has another method that it uses to pay subsidies, which is a method of quantity. In both cases, they want to push production, but the effect is not going to be the same. Here the surface area sown is the criterion on which the payments are based. So there’s an incentive effect by surface area or by production. Are these policies legitimate? I tend to answer yes, as far as the attempt to stabilize the revenues of agricultural producers goes. Each country must see that there’s a fact that exists the world over, and that’s that supply and demand of agricultural products never resemble the supply and demand of industrial products, because the supply and demand of agricultural products are both extremely inelastic. Their curves are very vertical, contrary to industry, where they are relatively flat. The result of this inelasticity is that, as soon as there is a variation in climate or as soon as there’s a change in demand, the fluctuation of prices for agricultural products becomes enormous and the revenue of farmers is affected. So stabilizing the revenue of agricultural producers is completely legitimate. Second reason: I tend to say yes, because in fact, food security is sometimes extremely important. Japan thinks it’s worth it to pay 53 billion euros per year to be sure to have their rice. Vietnam, fifteen years ago, you remember, didn’t have enough rice, and invaded Cambodia to secure for themselves, above all, access to rice. So the security of access to food is an element that could be facilitated by these policies of supporting production. On the other hand, these policies should be used very cautiously, because there are some perverse effects that I’d like to insist on. These techniques and these methods of price support, in the countries of the north and throughout the world today, distort the market system. We are no longer in a system of free competition, of the free market, but in a system of prices that are manipulated by local considerations. Does this harm the countries of the Third World or not? It’s clear that since Cancun, and after Cancun, the countries of the Third World are sounding the alarm in saying, “Yes, it harms us.” If we look at the American method from the Brennan plan, where we fix a price and we say to producers: “Produce, we’ll buy what’s left,” and the European system, where we set the surface areas sown and the goals and where we say, “We will intervene to guarantee the revenue of the producers,” it’s obvious that the target price should theoretically be the equilibrium price if the free market existed (Fig. 1). In both cases, it’s what is called the target in the schemes of international negotiation. Unfortunately, in the system of export supports—and thank you for having drawn my attention to this point, for there is a globalized system of price support for exports—this target has the effect that the price as it is perceived by the producers of the south is found to be under the global prices that exist, even if there was no intervention.

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Figure 1. Two present systems

To sum up, if we had done nothing, we should be around the target prices, the equilibrium prices. By intervening, in a way, we end up, especially by encouraging export, giving artificial prices to the market which discourages production in the countries of the south. What are the proposals? An American proposal can be summed up in three parts: − eliminate export subsidies, − only apply customs tariffs by competition of 25% maximum, − reduce payments to farmers so that they no longer overproduce. The Americans say that by doing this, we’d pay 100 billion dollars less over the course of five years (on the 251 billion euros). I’m going to ask the president of this session to have the kindness to summarize for us the French proposal of 2003, which I couldn’t update because of a problem with my computer. B. Bachelier — In 2003, at the time of the Evian Summit, France had proposed to place a moratorium on export refunds, in order to provoke a lowering of export market prices for all basic products headed for the least advanced countries. I remind you that this proposal of President Chirac’s was accepted by the Council of European Ministers, and that it was blocked because the Americans refused to join. So this American proposal, behind this refusal, wants the suppression of supports in all countries, and is a proposal that aims only for the reduction of agricultural prices and not for the maintenance of agricultural revenues. Europe proposed again a suppression of export refunds if the United States would reciprocate, a proposal that’s now blocked by the United States not joining. M. Cheikh-Rouhou — Thank you very much, esteemed president. The result is that we’re still blocked in the south. Another, very encouraging, way exists, and it was reinforced after what happened in Asia after the tsunami. The World Bank and the G8 are in the process of working to show the very close link between agricultural development, meaning the use of appropriate agricultural policies, and the fight against poverty. Agricultural trade is one of the key factors in the fight against poverty. I would draw your attention to the fact that, if trade between the north and the south of the Mediterranean is deficient in

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institutional terms, in organizational terms—and that’s one of the propositions I support—in the south of the Mediterranean itself, trade is also deficient: the UMA (Arab Maghreb Union) has done nothing to encourage industrial or agricultural trade and the UMA is thus the region of the world in which trade within the region is weakest. It’s surpassed by the countries of the Gulf where the trade rate, even though it’s also weak, is higher. So it’s clear that agriculture, in the countries of the south of the Mediterranean, suffers from a double border: a north/south border and a south/south border. I can’t resist drawing your attention in passing to the French proposal of President Chirac to join in this fight against poverty by taxing plane tickets. It might be a good thing because it will bring in money, but the countries that receive tourists aren’t very happy to see this kind of practice develop, and anyway it would be a modest contribution. In conclusion, I think that we have to work now on Euro-Med agreements specific to the zone and that focus attention on the vital importance of agriculture. We can’t speak of stability in the region, nor of democratic transition, when poverty is either increasing or reaching a ceiling at a certain level. Tunisia had poverty rates, as we saw earlier, that have remained on the whole the same; even if they’re relatively low, we would have liked to have seen them decrease even more. The other countries, except for Egypt, have seen their poverty rates rise. There is a direct link between real stability, democratic transition, and changes in the poverty rate. Agriculture is at the center of all that. Next, we need to use, in the construction of a Euro-Mediterranean entity, a winwin approach. We can’t continue to play cat and mouse. We can’t each take credit, all the more since the data that have been presented show clearly that the sum of the national revenues of the countries of the south of the Mediterranean, from Mauritania to Turkey, doesn’t even reach a quarter of the Italian national revenue. If we add the other non-Mediterranean countries of the Middle East, meaning oil producers, we arrive, for the zone the World Bank calls MENA (Middle East and North Africa) at a revenue equal to half that of Italy. So, when we talk about proposals for the construction of inter-Mediterranean programs for the promotion of agriculture, no one thinks today that for the European partners, the result would be catastrophic upheavals—on the contrary, it could contribute to the promotion of extremely interesting changes for both parties. Communication around agricultural policy and around research is fundamental. What you are doing here, what Robert Klapisch is doing, what you are in the process of exchanging is fundamental and vital. Without this communication, all the calls for improving the system will go unheeded. It’s not the work only of administrations, but rather it’s also the work of civil society. Finally, we know that competition doesn’t come only from the countries of the north. We have seen that between the countries of the UMA trade is insufficient, but today, we know that poultry producers are attacked directly not by Belgium but by Thailand; we know what Brazil is in the process of doing to other countries in the south. So neither the partners of the north nor the partners of the south should be happy about so-called cutthroat competition that might arise between the countries of the south, because no one has anything to gain from it.

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Roundtable Discussion38 B. Bachelier — To start off the discussion, I’d like to take up two or three points from the preceding talks. First, we see the difficulty in conceiving of a balanced freetrade zone, because each of the partners is following policies that are in the process of evolving. The Common Agricultural Policy is evolving, we know, we’re going to talk about it, national policies are working on this question, there are no markets in the south, Morocco, for example, signed a free-trade agreement with the United States, etc. So there are many factors, and reconciling national production and exports, it’s extremely complicated. I’ve noticed some questioning from time to time of regulation systems and at other times of free trade, and so it’s clear that it’s all very complex. But it would be interesting to have your opinion, to discuss this. Another observation on this question of policies: obviously, neither North Africa nor Europe is alone in the world, and there are a certain number of factors that result from globalization and negotiations taking place at the World Trade Organization. Secondly, for the research agenda, there are some crucial questions that have been asked regarding the adaptation of the aims of research to Mediterranean agriculture and the corresponding issues. I’ve retained one decisive fact: the supply of foodstuffs in the south is not ensured by the countries in the south of the Mediterranean and the productivity for basic food products has increased very little during the past several years, so we have a real problem there. Of course there are the climatic hazards, we’ve got major ecological constraints and finally we’ve got a major problem in the adaptation of our research results to real situations. And then there are of course other issues that you’re going to raise, so: we’re listening. J. Brugère-Picoux — I’m going to raise a question concerning food security since that’s the subject here. You talked about Thailand. I’ve visited animal farms in Thailand, pigs and poultry, but they don’t have the same food security, especially as regards the use of antibiotics, as in European countries. We’re subject to drastic decisions, for example I see that we’ve suppressed, and here I use the example of poultry, products that were effective for example against blackhead in turkeys, which is devastating turkey farming in France because we have no effective products. So we end up having paradoxical situations in terms of food security, in suppressing products that were effective with poultry and which results in us importing goods from countries that won’t give us this same security. OK, with Thailand, we aren’t worried about H5N1, we won’t import anything at the moment, but we definitely have this serious problem with food security, with the sometimes too-drastic decisions that are made concerning the use of certain products at the source, at the farm. B. Bachelier — I don’t know if someone wants to respond to this question? I’ll come back to it. Thanks in any case for this comment, this reminder. 38

Transcription from oral in French and translation.

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A participant — Thanks, if you’ll allow me I have a small comment to make, also a question to ask. For the comment, I’m going to start by borrowing from Mr. Akesbi the formulation he used of the asymmetry that exists between the north and the south. I think that this asymmetry can only begin to be dispelled when the north starts to concern itself with the real problems of the south, and I’ll give an example from the area of agricultural science, the date palm. The palm grove in the Maghreb is declining because of the north, but in practice, when we propose to the north to research a remedy, in practice they’re not interested. I remind everyone simply that the palm grove is a victim of a parasite, a fungus, that is virtually ravaging, we saw it earlier, all the palm groves of Morocco. Morocco has thus gone from being an exporter to being an importer of dates, and this problem also affects the border between Algeria and Morocco. That’s an example where maybe it’s not a good idea to count on only a south–south collaboration. We see, perhaps, in that axis, that research could be done between Morocco and Tunisia and start to give some examples. That’s my comment. The question is also for Mr. Akesbi, for the scientist and especially politician that he is. Is not Morocco’s position, I would say, delicate and uncomfortable between the signing of the two agreements, between the free-trade zone with the Americans and that with the Europeans, because as regards agricultural policy, what they don’t agree on is much greater than what they do? Thanks. B. Bachelier — Are there any other questions on the European and American agreements? If not, I’ll ask Mr. Akesbi right away to respond to this question, which is quite broad. N. Akesbi — On this question, I think there’s a first level, a first degree of evaluation, which is to say, finally, who wins, who loses? Between us, the answer is so obvious and the disproportions between the economies are such that the only question worth asking is, why? It’s obvious that the agreement with the United States is a political agreement. It’s not an agreement whose determining factors are economic. When we draw up the table, and we did so, of “who wins, who loses?” product by product for agriculture, there’s not a shadow of a doubt, as they say. But let’s move now beyond this first aspect, and you’re right to phrase the question this way. In my opinion the most important thing is that in fact this agreement creates situations that are nearly irreversible. I mean that today, between the European Union and the United States, Morocco is in the middle. Concerning the European Union, that said, no one is content today with this level of free-trade zone. If we think of real strategy, if we think of the Euro-Mediterranean region, if we know that geography imposes its law no matter what, it’s obvious that we will never be the Mexico of the United States—on the contrary we’re the Morocco of the European Union, simply put. If we subscribe to this strategic vision, the step that follows the free-trade zone is the customs union, before moving on to the stage of economic union, etc. But today, in signing the agreement with the United States, we have almost definitively compromised the possibility of one day making an agreement for a customs union with the European Union. Because you know the principle—a customs union, it’s not just liberalizing trade between the union members, it’s also establishing what they call, what Europe did when it was formed, the famous Common External Tariff, that means protecting the union by a customs tariff that can for example protect it from partners outside the union. So if tomorrow we want to form a customs union with the European Union, we’d have to accept establishing a common tariff with the European Union but against the United States,

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for example, which is now no longer possible. We can’t at the same time have a customs union with the European Union and free trade with the United States. That’s where it appears to me to be something extremely dangerous, and these are unfortunately questions that no one thinks about, or at least that no one is debating anymore in Morocco. I repeat once more, that beyond the level of who wins and who loses at trade, the most serious thing in my opinion is that, the fact that we’ve prevented ourselves, and in a rather reckless way, from engaging in what should be, in principle, our natural sphere of activity. Robert Klapisch — As you could see, the room was very sensitive to the cries of alarm that you have raised, and I think that you’re completely right to denounce a situation that is tending toward an excessive liberalization and neglects perhaps some fundamental imbalances. It’s about these fundamental imbalances that I can perhaps make a remark, because I don’t quite see the coherence of what you are denouncing. It’s obvious that agriculture in the south is much less productive, let’s say by a factor of 10 per person, than in the north. Moreover you also talk about the danger of, for Morocco and the countries of the south, the excess urban population, the rural exodus and for the countries of the north which are obviously worried about immigration. Well, that’s where I wasn’t following you, for suppose that with a magic wand, thanks to Rubbia or the World Bank or the trade winds, suddenly we manage to find the energy, the money, and the resources to make agriculture in the south as productive as that in the north. The result would be that you’re going to have the same process as in the north, meaning essentially that fewer farmers will be necessary, and consequently you won’t have as a result of that an end to emigration and the rural exodus. So I think that there’s a real contradiction there and I think personally that, while supporting the idea of food self-sufficiency, of whatever you want, the real solution is shooting for the high end, toward the famous knowledge economy, where in fact we should perhaps look again at certain productions one day. You talked about wheat: we can remark that the Saudis insist on growing wheat with desalinated water, I don’t know if that’s a good use of resources—they can afford it—perhaps. But I think there’s a certain rationality that should impose itself, I’m not saying it should be done mechanically, but that each country can find its fundamental economic nature in the areas in which it’s superior: I mean, we’re not going to grow dates in Paris! I think that in fact the best solution, which won’t happen tomorrow, is for Morocco to enter, like India, like China, into the knowledge economy, which would allow a population that’s going to urbanize whether we want it to or not to live and prosper without recourse to dramatic solutions such as emigration, etc. B. Bachelier — Thank you, Robert. Who wants to respond to that question? J. Brugère-Picoux — Yes, I want to respond because we have an experience that I’ll share with you: the history of the egg market. We industrialized the egg in France. Across the way, you have Tunisia, which is a large poultry producer and which did not make this mistake, and I find that it’s important to know about this experiment: they in fact limited the number of eggs, they did not industrialize, but rather they kept the possibility of having small farmers, they organized the commercialization of eggs starting with these farmers and thus there was in fact a preservation of these farmers who were not, like ours, finally limited in number, because there was a law that let them, in fact, avoid this excessive industrialization.

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A participant — We have to find the right balance, in fact... Strong productivity, that’s a good thing, but there’s no point in going too quickly, and we should keep the balance between self-sufficiency and the conservation of our bio-resources, of our vegetable resources. B. Bachelier — I’m going to make a couple of short remarks myself before handing the floor to N. Akesbi to respond to R. Klapisch. First, I think that yes, we must facilitate access to other forms of development for the countries of the south. That said, access to knowledge or innovation, to industrialization, that’s not a magic wand that’s going to exonerate us and solve the problem of improving the situation of farmers. Europe did it over a period of many decades, during the “glorious thirty” (1945-1973), by integrating its farmers into the national whole at a moment when there were very high growth rates but when there was at the same time a growth in the productivity and revenues of farmers. Certainly, improvement in productivity probably entails a reduction in the number of farmers, and an increase in the work of each farmer. That said, the ratio is first on the productivity per hectare and then on the productivity per person. One can increase considerably the productivity per hectare by working seriously at it, without however immediately provoking the consolidation of farms and rural exodus. I don’t believe that today the majority of developing countries, notably the populous countries of North Africa, can go from an improvement in the situation of farmers directly into industrialization or a knowledge economy. Even India, which has entered the knowledge economy with computer specialists, etc., worked to protect Indian agriculture and improvements thanks to the Green Revolution, which pretty well limited, actually for several decades, rural emigration, without which Indian cities would have exploded. So maybe you’re going to find a front of agronomists arguing for the agricultural exception on the grounds of food sovereignty and the fact that lands don’t move? N. Akesbi — I think that you answered most of the question for me. What I can perhaps add, simply, is that in my opinion the question of emigration can be disassociated from the question of agricultural productivity. It obviously can be associated if we want to contrast the two things, but I think in connection with the European Union, I think the movement of emigration can be mostly disassociated from the agricultural question. The attraction of Europe, the absence of possibilities for finding work at home, whether it be in agriculture, in industry or in the knowledge economy, is much more important. But we shouldn’t forget one thing, either, which is that today Europe sees the question of immigration as a kind of aggression from outside. Well, you know well that all the predictions, all the prospective studies are conclusive on this question: in 10, 15, 20 years Europe will need massive immigration and thus will accept this immigration as something positive. So if I brought up the question of emigration, it was simply to say that there’s an agricultural failure. It’s one factor among others, it’s not the only one but it’s a factor that gives only an impetus. To put it plainly, the farmer, because the land no longer nourishes him, because he can longer live where he is, because the rural world is not livable, let’s put things simply, but also because there’s no alternative in the cities of our countries because there are no industries, etc. ... he is reduced to trying to emigrate, but these are things that in my opinion should not be mixed up. I’ll let Vincent speak.

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Vincent Dollé — I would like to position myself at another level of discussion, and bring a modest contribution on three small tracks, very modest, but which would allow, maybe not a rapid improvement to the situation, but at least help stop it from deteriorating at the same speed. Three examples: 1.

2.

3.

Creating jobs and revenues in the rural sector using channels that do not compete with those of the countries of the north. I’m thinking for example that we have a superb example with dates, it’s a product with very high added value, which could even be an almost luxury product with a permanent market tied to Ramadan. It’s growing strongly in northern Europe, is not competitive, and could even valorize notions of soil, of know-how, of ancestral practices, of the agriculture of the oasis, of ecosystems... There’s a fantastic subject, the scientists of the north are interested. For those who are interested I recently created my laboratory... I was lucky to start my career as a scientist in Morocco, in Marrakech actually, so I caught the virus very early. And it’s a very good subject because it’s a scientific subject of very high quality: how to control somatic embryogenesis, organogenesis, and out of that selected resistant varieties. If afterward we package them with local products, it would help create jobs, revenues, locally. So that means that at least those people in the south won’t go to the northern cities and wait for the boat to Melilla to go elsewhere. All the agriculture on the urban perimeter that doesn’t go to the large export markets, which answers the increasing demand for quality products grown with clean water: that’s a subject both for research and for the implementation of completed research work that corresponds to a strong need and can help reconcile the rural world, the urban world, and the exchanges between city and country, with agricultural products, following sanitary standards, food education activities in cafeterias, etc. So that too is a very good subject. The third subject I think needs to be worked on because it affects the long term and is important for the future, too, is how professional organizations of both north and south, which should be reinforced, are organizing to manage, themselves, these market complementarities directly, on the tracks that could be competitive? One doesn’t produce the same product at the same time at the same place, so on these subjects they simply have to get organized. For instance, the producer of mandarins in Spain could perhaps make an agreement with certain producers of clementines in Algiers or elsewhere, on local products with phytosanitary guarantee concerning the state of the standards that must be worked around. This would involve the professional organizations themselves taking charge; they’ve got to structure themselves so that they are capable of making well-argumented proposals and putting pressure on their governments to negotiate their agreements differently. Why did Morocco sign with the United States? Because in fact no one stopped them from doing so, because on the other side, there weren’t any organized agricultural professional groups who told them, “Stop or you’re going to kill us because we won’t be able to negotiate with Europe.” So we can dream.

I think that there we have three small threads at different levels, that would allow a progressive gathering of knowledge, which could then be developed and shared, and we’d very quickly end up with completed research that could be applied to the development of countries and that would improve the situation in both rural and urban environments.

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A participant — My question is addressed to Mr. Dollé: Speaking of productivity, you said that a farm worker in the north produces the equivalent of five farm workers in the south; how do you account for this imbalance? V. Dollé — There’s a factor that’s very easy to identify and that’s the factor of mechanization. In terms of productivity, unmechanized agriculture is not comparable to mechanized agriculture, especially on large surface areas. So we can’t really compare, and that’s why I gave the limits to this comparison: if we make arithmetic and economic calculations, we could say, yes, that the productivity or the value added by an agricultural worker varies from 1 to 15 in certain cases and from 1 to 5 in productivity. But these indicators also allow us to give indications of change. We’re maybe not going to base a new trade policy on that, but nevertheless with these facts we can measure the drift and see if in fact this gap doesn’t increase or doesn’t diminish. We know furthermore that even in the north now they’re going to start limiting productivity—productivity by worker or by surface area—because they’re going to try to have productions with lower yield but for which there’s a smaller outlay of phytosanitary products, of fertilizer, and that will thus leave overall a bigger margin. These points are also other elements for economists, and we should think in terms of margins much more than in terms of productivity, of production and of loans. E. Guyon — I’d like to come back to this topic of the knowledge economy particularly as it concerns agronomic research. I’ve been working a lot the past year with CRAI, the Center for International Agronomic Research, which works on rice, wheat, corn. CRAI is not as involved as it could be in the Mediterranean zone and with the problems concerning the Mediterranean. France could have had a major role in CRAI, but in the end it has a fairly limited one, because it has its own research institutes. I wonder if it wouldn’t be a good idea to establish some more CRAI centers, or to encourage them—they were financed initially by the World Bank—to concern themselves with these Mediterranean problems. These problems are qualitative problems before they’re quantitative, they have to do with biodiversity, the necessity of keeping species banks, and this seems extremely important to me. It’s clear that for humanity, in particular for the Mediterranean world, this international agronomic research should concern itself with Mediterranean cultures. B. Bachelier — That said, there are no CRAI centers based in North Africa, but ICARDA, ICRISAT in India, and several others are working on Mediterranean subspecies, on Mediterranean species. A participant — In this vast picture that has been painted, it’s a little hard to ask very specific questions, but I have two comments and one question. You spoke of the asymmetry between the north and the south; aren’t we headed also toward an increasingly marked asymmetry in the south of the Mediterranean? And in this context, shouldn’t we be paying special attention to the support of these agricultures that are not very productive in terms of profitability, of international competitiveness but that are nevertheless important: all that revolves around the small family farm, doesn’t it still have a future for a certain time, if we consider it in terms of maintaining the land, of preserving the environment, of social equilibrium, of territorial and regional equilibrium?

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Second comment, we saw through your various talks that in the end the evolution of agriculture is a question of rural development, of multiple job-holding farmers, of the multifunctionality of rural space. It’s already much more noticeable in the north, but it’s becoming that way too in the south. There are multiple development levers: there’s agriculture, but there’s also job creation and the environmental question. In terms of research, I think that this implies two important elements in the definition of programs. We must first of all put into place multidisciplinary programs. As soon as we start working on questions concerning agriculture, concerning rural development, I think it’s very important that we conceive of programs that link natural sciences and, to simplify, social sciences, for we have everything to gain there. Furthermore, even if there are some strong trends, we should never lose sight of the diversity of the situations in the north as well as the south. We have to take into account this regional diversity if science wants to be useful in terms of targeted research and of assisting decision-making in terms of rural development policies or planning policies. My last remark—which is more of a question, but Vincent Dollé started to respond to it—while listening to Professor Akesbi speak of complementary productive systems, I wondered how we could envisage this perspective let’s say in the reconfiguration of the centers of power today? I was thinking of the rise of new actors, of professional organizations but also of the influence of regions: how could we envision the interaction of regions in new forms of cooperation and perhaps new complementarities or solidarities between the two sides of the Mediterranean? B. Bachelier — Thanks, that’s going to be the last question. Then afterwards I’m going to ask each speaker to say some words or concluding remarks and to make suggestions or recommendations he considers as essential. O.K. Ben Hassine — My question is addressed to Mr. Dollé: don’t you think that among the questions posed to science, we could include concerns like the study of the valorization of traditional techniques of conserving water, and God knows that there are plenty in North Africa? And then, another concern is the research first and then the study of the possibility of reintroducing local grain subspecies that have been lost. In each region, there was a subspecies adapted to a clearly defined microclimate that supported the climatic conditions of a variety of regions. So there was a diversity of subspecies that maybe the country itself no longer possesses but that maybe exist in another country’s gene bank. B. Bachelier — Thank you, madam. OK, so that things proceed in an orderly fashion, I propose that we respond to the two questions that have been asked. After that I will say a few words about FARM and then I’ll hand over the floor to each of the participants, so that they can formulate, very briefly, their recommendations. N. Akesbi — I’m going to respond to both questions but there was also a point brought up in the talks, particularly yours, on the question of subsidies. As this is very important, because there were some specifically Mediterranean aspects, I’d like to broach the subject, so if you’ll allow me I’ll take one more minute. On the question of the support of small agriculture, especially family-based agriculture, I’d say yes, a thousand times yes, in fact that’s the true problem. In reality the paradox is that all the reasons why Europeans, for example, are essentially attached to multifunctionality, match up with our own recommendations. But the way in which

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multifunctionality was presented was, in my opinion, badly done. All the themes of multifunctionality were pushed by Europe, in a context of negotiation, and multifunctionality was perceived by non-Europeans, starting with Mediterranean people, as a sort of Trojan horse allowing Europe to continue to protect its agriculture under the cover of multifunctionality. So there was sort of a reaction of rejection in the public opinion, as if we, in the south of the Mediterranean, we were against multifunctionality. Me, I say no, what are we asking for? We need exactly that, to protect our agricultures because we want first of all to preserve a family-based agriculture, because we want to protect the soil, because we have an obvious problem with rural development, we have a problem with the need to protect our patrimony— simply put, we need to keep our farmers. I’ll take up the same expression, we need producers who are guardians of nature. All that, those are interests that actually link up and are not contradictory and I think that all those reasons make the case for the necessity of multifunctionality. As for the question of complementarity, there too I agree. Perhaps I wasn’t clear enough, but I think that today the main obstacle to the emergence of such a model is the state, because behind the state, there are interests, structures, other things. On the other hand, if we approach the question from a sort of front door that tries to mobilize the civilian society, or to put it simply, if we manage to link up interests, the interests of course of both sides, the professional organizations in the channels north and south and to get them to agree on a project that could be a project of complementarity, I think that we could manage to build, little by little, this complementarity. I would even say that at the end of the day, states would show up to consecrate, make official a process that has already begun. But I think that the starting point is at the level of the professional organizations. So, if you’ll allow me, there’s one point I think is important. It was mentioned during the talks and in the discussion, and the conclusion is correct, that the subsidies of countries, of the United States, of Europe, etc., for a certain number of products, are in terms of volume, of dollars, quite considerable. It was also said that when all is said and done the result is that it depresses international prices and that it’s the small producers, especially of the south, who pay the consequences. It’s not the conclusion in itself that I’m going to contest. But precisely at the level of the Mediterranean, and one mustn’t forget, we have to have the courage to express our contradictions. What is the specific situation of a country like Morocco, but also of a country like Tunisia, like Egypt? It’s that in reality we are at the same time exporters of certain products and net importers of basic food products. And it’s true that we have two heads: when we’re importers or exporters. I’ll take a real case: on the Russian market, when the Moroccan exporter sells a tomato or an orange rather for 1 euro, his European competitor gets another euro simply in the form of a subsidy from the European Union. So it’s true, the playing field is not level. But when we’re importers of wheat, as I was saying earlier, of sugar, of oil, etc., we benefit from these subsidies, as importers, as consumers. Let’s be clear: it’s because of these subsidies that we manage to eat more cheaply. If we pay today maybe 180 or 200 dirhams for wheat, it’s because it is subsidized and, once again, we eat cheaply thanks to the subsidies that the European or American taxpayer pays for. It’s reality, and it’s simply to introduce a bit of complexity, or perplexity into our analyses that I make this remark: beware of hasty analyses. When Morocco, speaking officially to the WTO, sings the same tune as Argentina for example, one of the countries of the Group of 15, or Brazil, who themselves have good reason to be against export subsidies, I

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myself say that somewhere Morocco is committing hara-kiri. We are counterproductive in such positions, because our interest is of course that these exports, these subsidies continue. When you calculate the difference, and we have done so—to put it simply, when we ask ourselves what does Morocco lose when it exports and what does it gain when it imports, I assure you there too there’s not a shadow of a doubt: it’s obvious that what we win when we import, and God knows we import, in fact I should say that we import so much in comparison to what we export that there too we win. So, careful with this question of negotiations at the WTO, we must know that we have contradictory interests but that it’s a reflection of our contradictory, paradoxical situations. All that to say that we can have convergent interests with Europe especially while a hasty analysis could lead us to think that that’s maybe not the case. B. Bachelier — Thank you, Najib Akesbi. What you just said is very important, because it’s very true and it points to the reality outside all ideological points of view and I thank you personally for having reminded us of these realities. I think Vincent was asked a question and so he’ll respond, and afterward I’m going to present FARM to you. V. Dollé — Yes, I was asked about the interest in local subspecies. It’s true that we need to be careful not to lose them, but we also need to verify that they’re resistant to “illnesses” that are unfortunately totally globalized. They’re not necessarily all lost, but I think that good prospecting would allow us to recover a number of very worthwhile subspecies. That means that agronomic research has to happen in the field and, being somewhat familiar with the national structures of agronomic science, I don’t believe that they’re equipped to do that work, working closely with farmers on the control of this important genetic potential. A quick remark about the CRAI, and Bernard Bachelier pointed also to ICARDA. But I think that we could imagine that the national systems could organize themselves to divide tasks, while we see that the Algerian, Moroccan, and even Tunisian national systems are investing in a non-unified way in the same subjects. Why not imagine simply that grains, that would be one country, citrus fruits another, and date palms a third. I don’t think that that would involve a big revolution, it doesn’t involve a big agreement at the human level nor a big decision at the government level in Washington, at the World Bank. So I think that that should originate here, with your neighbors. Last thing, which also seems to me very important: local collectives could press professional organizations to play an important role, and I would mention a very interesting organization, which is the Organization of Regions and Departments of the Latin Arc, which is being set up and which is seeing to the formation of close ties between research and development in the rural zones of thirty regions and departments of the Mediterranean perimeter. The presidency of this organization is in the hands of the Conseil Général of the Hérault department until next year; its goal is to set up an observation center on the changes to the agricultural and food situation in the Mediterranean: this could continue to furnish reliable data to build this sustainable Euro-Mediterranean agriculture. B. Bachelier — Please prepare yourselves, and next you’ll have 30 seconds, it’s like on the TV shows. While we’re waiting I’ll tell you about the FARM project, of which Najib Akesbi, whom I hadn’t met before, is not yet a founder, but the last declaration he made already gives him the right to be one... So, several French

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companies propose to create a Foundation for Agriculture and Rurality in the World (FARM), whose objective is to help the agricultural sectors of developing countries. As was already mentioned briefly in the last remarks, we want to work first of all for professional organizations in the countries of the south, using the experience and knowhow of the professionals in the north, with three types of actions: first, a place for exchange, for reflection and influence, a little like what the Americans call a “think tank,” to which I invite our partners to come and discuss so that we can formulate realistic and workable propositions; next, a source for information and training: it has been said how essential access to information, to knowledge, but also to economic information, is; and finally, participation in actions as close as possible to the land. These themes take up those we’ve heard a lot about: food sovereignty and agricultural policies, water, electricity, commercialization and logistics, innovation and technical progress, international commerce rules. You see how much all that matches up with what has already been said. There is a preliminary list of founders which includes Crédit Agricole, Casino, Suez, the French Development Agency, Limagrain—which is a cooperative for the production of French seeds—Air France, French agricultural professionals as a whole, EDF, and several others who are going to join us. The foundation was launched, it was announced by President Chirac at the time of the Dakar Agricultural Forum, but it is essentially being initiated by economic actors and that is where its originality lies, and once more, the idea is to work with professionals in the south. If any of you are interested in knowing more, I’ve got a fact sheet and some addresses, and we’re just now in the start-up phase. So, I thank you and I hand the floor over to my colleagues who will give us in a few words their main recommendation or conclusion. N. Akesbi — If you’ll give me just a minute, I’m going to say what I didn’t say before, I had intended to end on an optimistic note. In fact, I wanted above all to say that science, particularly in the field of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership, was the subject of a meeting at the beginning of June between twenty universities from the north and the south of the Mediterranean. A sort of declaration came out of it, that’s being called the declaration of Tarragona and that places an emphasis on two points: agriculture is indeed one of the research areas appropriate for the entire Mediterranean, which is considered to be one of the most urgent areas: we need to get to work. And the second point is that we need to set up the elements, and I find just the expression interesting, of a Euro-Mediterranean zone of education and research. We must start working on the construction of a Euro-Mediterranean zone of higher education and research. B. Bachelier — I think that this point should be on the summary of conclusions. V. Dollé — I would go exactly in the same direction since it was also in the proposals that I didn’t have time to present. If I had a primary wish or a dream, why not modestly imagine that we could contribute to the re-energizing of national systems of agronomic science on unified priorities. Through information exchanges, through seminars, through visits to the field, why not imagine that the national research systems unify and decide to start work that is regional, interregional, north–south, east–west, on unified priorities and in close cooperation. The interest in such a case would lie in enhancing research results, with the goals of training and teaching for the future leaders of rural development. And finally, why not imagine that we could start Euro-

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Mediterranean doctoral programs, I mean to start an LMD system, since everyone’s coming on board, even France, so why not imagine that on certain priority subjects for agronomic science, we mount education and research systems in the form of EuroMediterranean programs which could lead to significant advances in priority research fields and train people around common themes and finally create, progressively, a Mediterranean spirit on those subjects. M. Cheikh-Rouhou — From the point of view of science I can only agree with what has already been said, but I would add that everything we build is only lasting, only valuable if we take into account the interests of both parties and we would need to ask clearly, naively, the question: Do Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Egypt want to remain eternal consumers or do they want, for certain products, certain plantations, to become in some sense masters of their future? They say that North Africa was the granary of Rome... Economy is schizophrenia, we are Doctor Jekyll and Mister Hyde, producer and consumer at the same time, and this schizophrenia means that we should decide at the national level what we want to work toward. If we want to work toward an eternal economy of consumption, I myself am perfectly in agreement, but we have to accept the consequences. We’ve had subsidized wheat in Tunisia for a long time, but when we stopped the subsidies, we had a revolt in ’84. On the other hand if we want to become producers, masters of our own future for certain essential crops, then we have to take the bull by the horns and I think that it’s in the interest of Europe to contribute to that: the best contribution would be scientific but also setting up negotiations, the establishment of a common policy. Thank you. B. Bachelier — I’m going to express my own wish if you’ll allow me, and that’s that the maximum number possible of African partners participate in FARM, since it’s the project I’m throwing myself into. That’s my wish, but above all I would like to say we must offer the chance for technical progress and improvements in productivity. I say it a little bit deliberately—with an agriculture, of course, that conserves natural resources and the environment—but with real improvements in productivity, keeping in mind ecological constraints, to improve revenues. We must not resign ourselves to an agriculture that remains in a state of poverty and of too-small output for I don’t know what reasons. For that, we must convene a scientific coalition that will require a coming together of all the disciplines and probably of disciplines that today are not yet part of agronomy, but it’s a true agronomic revolution that must take place. Thank you.

Session 6 Fighting the Digital Divide Convener: Guy WORMSER Director of LAL, Orsay

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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E-Science and the Grid39 Ken PEACH Director, e-Science, CCLRC, UK Abstract. Just as the development of the World Wide Web has had its greatest impact outside particle physics, so it will be with the development of the Grid. Escience, of which the Grid is just a part, is already making a big impact upon many scientific disciplines, and facilitating new scientific discoveries that would be difficult to achieve in any other way. Key to this is the definition and use of metadata. The techniques of e-Science present significant opportunities for the less developed countries, including those of the Southern Mediterranean, to make an impact in areas of direct relevance, in health care, civil protection and economic development, provided that the appropriate infrastructure (particularly the internet) is in place.

Introduction E-Science has become a popular research activity, particularly in some countries, covering a very wide range of projects and scientific domains. It is related to, but not synonymous with, the Grid—the Grid is an essential enabling technology for e-science, and requires many of the constructs needed by e-science (metadata, portals, etc.) for its successful implementation, but should not be confused with it. While particle physics certainly has enormous computational needs that represent a significant computing challenge, it is not unique. There are equivalent challenges across the whole spectrum of research, from medicine and the life sciences, through the environment, chemistry, physics and engineering. The scientific problem may be different, but the underlying methodologies have much in common. In this short paper, I will review some of these common issues, and indicate some of the major unresolved problems. Note that many of the themes in this paper are brilliantly illustrated by other presentations in this session [1]-[3]. Note: I have added one or two comments that arose in discussion enclosed in square brackets. 1. What is E-Science? A simple Google™ search on the word e-Science yields more than 577,000 entries; a similar search last October [5] gave 177,000 entries. Even allowing for some noise, this represents a significant, and rapidly growing, volume of activity. There are websites on e-science from government agencies and scientific policy makers, academics and universities, learned societies, healthcare and industry. While there is a great deal of 39

Original text in English.

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activity, there is no agreed definition of e-science. My definition of e-science is “the science that can be achieved through the use of computers to connect different sources of data about a subject, usually collected independently, to extract new information beyond that which is in each data set taken separately, to generate new knowledge and understanding”. The crucial concepts, which drive much of the developing technology, are associated with the issue of different sources of data, and the use of computers to assist the individual scientist to process the data and extract the information that leads to the new knowledge and understanding—that is, the science. The technique is particularly powerful when different sets of data, originally obtained for quite different purposes, can be brought together to address a new problem, which neither dataset on its own can solve. Of course, this has always been possible in principle by combining the published results of the separate analyses and trying to extract the knowledge, but this is often laborious and sometimes prone to error (perhaps not all details of the conditions under which the data were obtained were published, for example). This combination of data from different sources becomes even more laborious and prone to misinterpretation as experiments become more complex, the “granularity” of the information becomes smaller and the data volumes become larger. Achieving the e-science goals requires the development of several underpinning technologies. •

• •

Reliable and secure networks; many applications in all domains (medicine, life sciences, engineering, environmental sciences, and the other physical sciences, as well as particle physics) have, or will have, very large data volumes that might need to be transported over the network, or have relatively modest volumes (images of tens to hundreds of gigabytes) that need to be transported from the repository to the application with low latency, requiring substantial bandwidth. A consistent metadata description of the data—see below. Comprehensive portals, providing both the functionality and assurance that the individual researcher needs.

Many applications will also require Grid-scale computing, that is massive storage and large scale computation. 2. The Importance of Being: Metadata and Meta-Analysis Meta-analysis—defined roughly as an “analysis of other people’s analyses”—is becoming increasingly popular, and important. Of course, this is not new to particle physics—the Particle Data Group produces the annual compendium [6] of particle physics results—a typical result is shown in Figure 1.

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Figure 1. A meta-analysis from the Particle Data Tables.

Another example of contemporary significance in the UK is the recently published [7] search for a correlation between the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination and the increase in autism. The authors not only did some new primary research, but also carried out a systematic review of other studies (a meta-analysis), the results of which considerably strengthened their original findings, namely that there is no demonstrable link. I suspect that the process of carrying out this meta-analysis was not particularly automatic. There are two points to make about meta-analysis. The first is fairly obvious— while it may at first sight seem like an easy way of doing research (other people do the hard work) there is no doubt that the confidence in the conclusions of a serious metaanalysis over those from a single experiment is considerably enhanced; there are some very clear and straightforward conclusions to be drawn from Figure 1. The second point is that, without a well-defined metadata language, it is difficult to see how the process of meta-analysis can be automated, or made robust and easily auditable. To be of general value, metadata needs to be comprehensive, standardised, verified and certified. It should also be no more complicated than necessary. It is useful to divide the metadata into three categories. 2.1. “Geographical” Metadata This includes all of the information about the location of the data, and the characteristics of the “container”. In a distributed environment, this is presumably generated, verified and certified by the system, probably the Grid.

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2.2. “Environmental” Metadata This includes all of the information about the conditions under which the data were obtained. Some of this is common to all subjects (who, when, where, how), but there is clearly some subject-dependence in the description of what the data describe. 2.3. “Structural” Metadata This is subject specific, describing what the data means. [It is customary when discussing metadata to refer to the ontology—roughly defined as the set of relevant entities. The important feature of the ontology is that it provides a specification of all of the attributes (in this context, within a restricted domain) that are knowable. This is not quite as trivial as it looks, since the elements of the ontology may not be evident or agreed, and may (for example) depend upon scale or granularity. (If the domain of study is the migration of antelope or caribou, it may not be useful to start with atoms and molecules.) It is important that the metadata language—which can be viewed as the implementation of the ontology—be common within a domain, and where necessary consistent between domains. (In principle, the metadata vocabulary could be different, but unambiguous translation is only possible if the underlying ontology is the same.)] Many areas of science have made significant progress in the development of appropriate metadata descriptions. This is essential if data from different sources about the same, or similar, systems are to be combined automatically and transparently. [These points were well illustrated by the talks of Nagi [1] and Petitdidier [3].] 3. Portals Part 40 of the Chambers Dictionary definition of a portal is “a website, often incorporating a search engine, that provides access to a wide range of other sites”. In the context of e-science, a more restrictive definition is needed. The portal provides structured access to data, applies the appropriate access and security policies, and guarantees the provenance of the data. A well-designed portal helps the researcher by providing a comprehensive suite of operations, managing the workflow and providing the researcher with the information that is needed to answer the questions posed. Before discussing the features of a portal, it is perhaps instructive to look at some websites that are not e-science portals 41. The first example is Google™. There is no doubt that Google™ is an extraordinarily valuable tool—this paper could not have been written without it. However, it is not an e-science portal. To illustrate, I typed “carrot juice cure cancer” into Google™, and expecting to find a few articles where the words “carrot juice”, “cure” and “cancer” appear in different contexts. More than 73,000 entries were returned. What was surprising was that a large number of these sites did provide 40 The other part of the definition is “a gate or doorway, esp a magnificent one”; those of us who had the privilege of visiting the Grande Mosque Hasan II saw many doors of sufficient magnificence to merit the appellation portal. 41 In the presentation, I quoted John Naughton as writing in The Observer that “[any] fool can write a web-page, and many fools have”. The actual quotation from his column of July 23, 2000 is “[and] because any fool can create an e-commerce website, many fools do.”

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references to cures for cancer involving carrot juice, for example, the Gerson Therapy [9] reports that sufferers are given “a fresh glass of juice every hour: five glasses of apple-carrot juice, three glasses of plain carrot juice and [we give] liver capsules with it, four glasses of juice from leafy type greens rich in chlorophyll, iron, nutrients, enzymes, everything the body has been lacking over the years”. A more relevant example is the Particle Data Group website. This provides access to certified information in a structured way, but does not allow the user to manipulate the data. For example, it might be interesting to see the effect of omitting the data point with the large χ2 from not only Figure 1, but also from all related plots. There are now many examples of data portals, some illustrated in this workshop [1][3]. DiscoveryNet (High Throughput Informatics) aims [10] to “design, develop and implement an advanced infrastructure to support real-time processing, interpretation integration, visualisation and mining of vast amounts of time critical data generated by high throughput devices”, and claims that there already benefits in, for example [11], the study of the molecular evolution of SARS coronavirus. DAME [12] is an advanced Aircraft healthcare diagnosis system. CCLRC is developing a Data Portal [13] with the aim of offering a single method of browsing and searching the contents of all of the CCLRC data resources through the use of a central catalogue holding metadata about all of these resources. The structure of the metadata follows a formal scientific metadata model that is also being developed. The relationship between the portal and the metadata model is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Portals and Metadata, from [13].

Much of the utility of e-science will depends upon the functionality of the portals that are developed. In a rapidly changing world, data volumes are increasing rapidly, data complexity is increasing rapidly, and response times must decrease rapidly. The recent outbreaks of the SARS virus in Asia, which spread rapidly through air travel outside the immediate region, and the contemporary issue of Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and the surrounding littoral states, are eloquent testimony to the requirements. There are also increasing demands by society on the reliability of science. Google™ is very good for simple queries, but requires interpretation and

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judgement for more complicated queries. The recent development of Google Scholar™ goes some way toward addressing some of these issues—the number of sites returned on the query “carrot juice cure cancer” reduces from more than 73,000 to 99, among which is an article [15] on the Gerson Therapy. While noting that Gerson Therapy is among “the more well-known and somewhat researched dietary regimens” [my italics], the only study directly reported noted that, of 7 patients (out of 149 at the outset) who relied solely on the Gerson regime, 3 were reported to be in total remission. However (as the author notes) there have been no comparative studies and little prospect that such studies will be performed, and so it is difficult to interpret the significance of this claim scientifically. What still has to be developed is the certification of the portals—what gives the individual researcher confidence that the portal is comprehensive and accurate? What also has to be developed is the development of schemes of accreditation of portals and datasets. There is a clear role here for the national and international professional societies and perhaps the academic publishers. [The effectiveness of a gate depends upon the integrity of the gatekeeper; the same applies to portals.] The development of e-science techniques presents a great opportunity for the developing world—there is a form of “democracy”; e-science can (in principle) be done by anyone, at any time, from anywhere. Also, no one knows (today) what the key application of e-science techniques will be in the future. Nevertheless, there is a precondition, and that is (as Sreenivasan noted [16] in this conference) access to adequate networking (the internet). Although there has been significant progress (see Hoummada [17]) in increasing the bandwidth between the developing and the developed world, the ratio of these aggregate bandwidths to those between the developed regions is not diminishing significantly. Finally, as Rubbia noted [18], a quarter of the world’s population have no regular access to electricity, disconnecting them completely from all things “e”. These issues need urgent attention if the potential offered by this new paradigm for the developing nations is to be fully realised. 4. E-Science and the Grid E-science applications, including particle physics, require access to data, processing, analysis, simulation and visualisation. Many of these features need computing power at the leading edge of what current technology can deliver. Until now, leading edge and large scale computing has been the province of major computer centres housing massive main-frames, supercomputers or large clusters of workstations. Some of these have in effect a single or closed user community (for example, meteorological computers), while others serve a wide scientific community, who share the resource. The idea of the Computing Grid (often shortened to just “the Grid”) is modelled on the electricity grid—the end-user of the electricity (for breakfast toast) is unconcerned about who generated the electricity, where it was generated and (except in the wider context of energy policy) how it was generated; the power is delivered to the end-user through a simple socket and plug. The Grid (see [19]) has the same motivation—the user is concerned with the specification of the problem, and the Grid finds the necessary data, executes the necessary programmes and returns the results, without the user knowing, or needing to know, where the actual computation was done. Now, while it is true that the cheapest way of providing a given amount of raw compute power, and any associated data storage, is to locate both in the same place,

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there are some sound reasons for developing the distributed paradigm. Some of the data sources are naturally distributed, and so connecting them will require either transporting the data or using the network. The distributed computing model is inherently more resilient, and provides the potential for ensuring that critical data is always available, even if a whole region is rendered inoperable (through natural catastrophe or failure of, say, the electricity supply). The development of Grid technology will, in principle, allow massive computing resources to be harnessed in emergency. As noted above, there have been recent examples where massive computing power might have had a major impact in ameliorating the adverse effects of a natural catastrophe. Without being alarmist, it is possible to imagine situations in which immediate access to massive distributed computing might be essential—the effects of an asteroid in an orbit that brings it into collision with the earth has already been the subject of a major film [20]. Whilst huge amounts of computing power certainly exist, today it takes considerable effort to develop or port a new application onto a distributed computing network—with the evolution of Grid technology, this should become (eventually) more routine. Finally, there is the psychological effect that the Grid has in engaging distributed communities and the pragmatic observation that resources might be available for local computing that would not necessarily be available otherwise. Superficially, the Grid may look like the World Wide Web, invented by Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Cailleau at CERN in the early 1990s. There is no doubting the impact that the web has had on society—there is barely an advertisement that does not have a www.this.that prominently displayed. The web has brought many benefits to society, but has also brought with it some challenges—adult content, fraud, gambling etc. Some early descriptions of the Grid as “the web on steroids” and suchlike, were misleading. The web is deliberately anarchic and loosely organised—caveat lector— but the Grid environment is highly, and necessarily, structured. Many of the major computing challenges of today, and in the future, are characterised by large data volumes, massive data processing, intricate analysis, detailed simulation and advanced visualisation. Particle physics is unique only in the sense that it has to deal with all of these challenges today. But many other disciplines (biology, medicine, earth and environmental sciences, condensed matter physics and computation chemistry, astronomy and cosmology, and even the arts and humanities) have requirements already approaching those of particle physics, and many will soon surpass them. The development of the LHC Computing Grid (the LCG) is a major step toward producing a practical, heterogeneous, large-scale, distributed computing model able to deliver the huge amounts of computing (both CPU cycles and data storage) that the LHC needs. When the LHC is running at full intensity, the four experiments will produce many Petabytes (1015 bytes) of raw data per year. It is important that, in developing the LCG, general solutions are adopted so that the experience gained is available to other applications requiring high performance computing. Already (September 2005), the LCG is operational, with more than 16,000 CPU and 5 PB of disk storage accessible, spread over nearly 200 sites in tens of countries across the world. (Installed in one place, the hardware cost alone would be more than $40M.) A key part of the development of the computing Grid, and the e-Science agenda, is ensuring that the technologies that are developed as part of the LCG are available to, and likewise benefit from, e-Science and Grid developments in other scientific domains. An integral part of this, in Europe, is the EU-funded EGEE (Enabling Grids for e-

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Science in Europe); there are similar initiatives in other regions. There are already significant benefits from this approach ([2]and [3])

Figure 3. Structure of the LHC Computing Grid, using the UK as an example of the tier structure below Tier 1.

The LGC and some other Grids are structured into a series of “Tiers”, with different capabilities and functionalities, as shown in Figure 3. The “Tier 0” receives the data directly from the experiments, and distributes it to the participating Tier 1 centres in the various countries for processing. The Tier 2 centres (organised regionally in the UK, but these could also be hosted by computing or institute centres) provide the main analysis capability, and the Tier 3 and Tier 4 (the desk top or laptop) provide some local computing capacity and (of course) the interface to the user. However, from the laptop, the user has (in principle) access to the full power of the LCG! In many other disciplines, the source of the data is also distributed, but the same diagram is usually applicable—there is no “Tier 0”, but the federation of Tier 1 centres provide the data repositories, which are accessed directly or indirectly from the laptop or desktop. [The layered structure of the Grid means that the cost of the hardware needed to join the system at one of the lower layers is relatively modest. Apart from the Desktop or laptop which the individual researcher needs, a small cluster of four or five machines is sufficient to create a prototype Tier 3 facility, which can then be expanded as funds become available. Furthermore, the regional Tier 2 model adopted by the UK—where typically 4-6 universities pool their resources—may provide an effective model for small or developing countries, and even for developing regions.] There are some Grid issues that need to be addressed. A major difference between a Grid and the Web is that, in order to be able to access a Grid, the user requires a “Digital Identity”. Of course, some websites are “secure”, and require a user name and

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password—usually issued by the owner of the website—before access is allowed. This works for a small number of sites, but the proliferation of user names and passwords soon becomes unmanageable. In the world of the Grid, each user has to be Accredited (that is, issued with a Digital Identity—somewhat like a Passport). As with a Passport, the Digital Identity must be issued by a competent authority—the Certificating Authority—in the form of an encrypted digital certificate. Each time the user access the Grid, the Digital Identity is Authenticated (similar to having your passport checked at an airport) and once the identity is established, the user can proceed to use the facilities, provided that the appropriate Authorisation has been given. These three processes— accreditation, authentication and authorisation—are at the heart of Grid security, and are the focus of much research activity, for example, within EGEE. The comparison with the electricity grid is instructive—the “deliverable” is power (volts times amps)—and there are not many other things that need to be specified (frequency, phases, voltage). Moreover, once the Grid has delivered the power, the involvement of the generating and distributing companies is limited to sending the bill—they do not share in the “intellectual property” that their supply of power enables. However, for the computing Grid, there is no simple analogue to “power”—a computing problem is a complex mixture of CPU power, local memory, I/O capacity (to memory, cache, disk and, via the network, to other processors), and persistent storage. The issue is even more complicated because of the “negative inflation” that arises through the inexorable application of “Moore’s Law” to all of these components. These issues are already affecting the distributed computing models of the present generation of particle physics experiments (BaBar, CDF and D0), and are being discussed in the context of the Memoranda of Understanding needed for the LHC. Finally, as well as the physical resource represented by the computing hardware and fabric, there is the delicate issue of the value of the real Grid resource—the data, the information derived from these data, and the knowledge abstracted form the information. (Who receives the Nobel Prize—the person who provided the data, the person who processed the data and extracted the information, or the person who realised its significance?) It is essential that data policies are defined that cover these issues. The final set of Grid issues concerns the security of the data. The physical security is a responsibility of the Grid managers—regular backup, replication etc. However, many applications (for example in the medical area) there are a host of issues—legal, ethical, the requirement to be able to access the key data completely and accurately while maintaining patient confidentiality—that have to be addressed. There are a number of projects in this area that have solved some of these issues, but there is still more work to be done. 5. “@Home” Computing Although, applying strict definitions of the terms, the various projects that utilise spare CPU cycles (via screen saver software) on home computers are neither “e-science” nor “the Grid”, they do provide graphic examples of what can be achieved in a distributed environment, and this may also provide a model for less developed countries to make progress (as well as maximising the use of precious investment in computer hardware and infrastructure).

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The pioneer of these projects is “SETI@HOME” [21] the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, using the data obtained from radio telescopes. On 6 th September (as I was giving this talk), the 2 billionth work unit was completed! The project has already accumulated well over 2 million years of CPU time (see Figure 4). Unfortunately perhaps, no signals of extraterrestrial life have been found… so far.

Figure 4. An example of the output from the SETI@HOME project.

A second example, from my own laboratory, is even more remarkable. A website (Muon1 [22]) was created by Stephen Brooks, a graduate student working at the CCLRC’s Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, “to simulate and design parts of a particle accelerator”. So far, this website has accumulated over 16 million simulations (see Figure 5 for some sample output). This is remarkable because it is front-line research for a potential future neutrino factory – pure particle physics. Contributions to this work have come from nearly 2,700 users in every continent.

Figure 5. An example plot from [22].

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The final example of the “@Home” movement is much more significant— climateprediction.net [23]. This project aims to “produce a forecast of the climate in the 21st century”, and has recently published [24] its first results (see Figure 6).

Figure 6. The figure shows the change in globally averaged surface temperature with time after carbon dioxide values in the atmosphere are doubled. The black lines show the 15 years of phase 3 from 2579 climateprediction.net runs, and the red lines show comparable results from 127 30-year simulations completed by the Hadley Centre on the Met Office's supercomputer.

What each of these examples demonstrate is that there is a huge capacity “out there” that is unused, and moreover, that there are a large number of people (absolutely if not relatively) willing to donate their spare CPU cycles to a good cause. Of course, not all problems are suited to this kind of deconstruction, but it illustrates what is possible. [Within organisations, it is possible to use the Condor system [25] to utilise unused capacity.] 6. Data Curation The rapid expansion of all things “e” has created an urgent needed to address the longterm preservation of digital information. We do not know in advance whether any particular piece of information has any long-term value, but we do know that a great deal of digital information is already effectively lost—stored on media that can no longer be read. To illustrate the problem, the first website returned by the Google™ search for “escience” in October 2004 is shown in Figure 7. Now, I do not know if the information contained in this website was really important, but (given the Google™ search algorithm) at some time many other authors of websites thought that it was. The issue is that, now, it is very difficult to judge—the information that it contained has vanished from the web. (At least those responsible for this site had the courtesy to say “goodbye”—many just stop supporting the site 42.) 42 After I had used this example last year, this was drawn to the attention of the relevant people. The site now also has a reference to the website of the UK National e-Science Centre—http://www.nesc.ac.uk.

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Figure 7. The first website returned by the Google™ search for “e-science”

Many of the technical issues are addressed in the presentation by Nagi [1] of the Bibliotheca Alexandrina. The first question to be addressed is “what to preserve?”— raw data, reconstructed data and associated simulations, selected data, distributions, plots and tables, notes, or final publications. The second question is “for how long?”— 5 years, 50 years, 500 years or 5,000 years. The first observation is that the issue (unlike the “paper” library) is not the cost of physical storage – at least until Moore’s Law for storage technology fails. However, the “cost of access” to the data is an issue. Preserving the data (the “bits and bytes”) is a chore, but can be automated as new technology is introduced. More difficult is preserving the information contained in the data, and the knowledge derived from it. The essential requirement for both of these is that the metadata (to access the information) and the ontology (to translate this into knowledge) is stored and managed with the data. There is also the related issue of precisely who has access to the data/information/knowledge, and when. This is not an issue while the experiments are running. However, it is an issue for scholarship—the history of the development of science—and may be an issue if there is a need for a re-analysis in the light of subsequent discoveries. Even if it is possible to read the data from older experiments, it is very often difficult to interpret the results because much of the “environmental metadata” has been lost. All of this emphasises the need for the development of data curation policies, and the commitment to fund the consequences. The issue, not just for particle physics or even science but for society, is to identify the digital “Tablets of Stone”, that is, something that is readable for hundreds or thousands of years. 7. E-science in Action There are many current examples of e-science (conforming to the definition given above). This new methodology is already having an impact across the whole range of science, from medicine and the life sciences to chemistry, physics and engineering. [Even the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council has an e-Science programme.] These involve many innovative uses of metadata, portals and Grid technology.

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E-science is a new methodology. So far, there have been more hopes and hints than real achievement, but there is an enormous investment being made world wide, with lots of enthusiasm—which is just as well, because there are many serious issues to be addressed. Despite the complexity and apparent cost, there are I believe great opportunities for the developing economies, including those of the Southern Mediterranean, to make their contribution. Acknowledgements I have chosen to illustrate a number of the issues by quoting real examples, chosen almost randomly. It is a pleasure to acknowledge the hard work of the many people who have developed, and are developing these applications. I would also like to thank the organisers of this Conference, and in particular, Robert Klapisch, for the invitation to give this presentation, which has stimulated me to think more deeply about these issues. The other sessions have been equally stimulating. References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

[6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20]

M. Nagi, “The new Alexandrina: a Library for the digital age”, this Conference. R. Merrouch, “The EUMEDGrid project”, this Conference. M. Zimmermann and N. Jacq, “Grid enabled discovery to address neglected diseases”, presented by G. Wormser, this Conference. M. Petitdidier, “Earth Sciences”, this Conference. K.J. Peach, “The Impact of e-Science”, Computing in High Energy Physics (CHEP), Interlaken, October 2004,http://indicodev.cern.ch/getFile.py/access?contribId=523&sessionId=21&resId=0& ;materialId=paper&confId=0 S. Eidelman et al, Phys.Lett. B592 (2004) 1; see also http://pdg.lbl.gov. L. Smeeth et al, The Lancet 364 (2004), 963. A definition of Ontology plucked from the web is “the specification of a conceptualization”, Tom Gruber, Stanford. Collins Dictionary definition includes “the set of entities presupposed by a theory”. See http://www.healingdaily.com/conditions/Gerson-therapy.htm. See http://www.discovery-on-the.net/. Pei Hao et al, “Studying the molecular evolution of the SARS-coronavirus on the DiscoveryNet Environment”, 2004, http://www.jsbi.org/journal/GIW04/GIW04S08.pdf See http://www.cs.york.ac.uk/dame/. G. Drinkwater et al, “The CCLRC Data Portal”, UK e-Science All Hands Meeting 2003. B. Matthews, S. Sufi, and K. Kleese van Dam, “The CCRLC Scientific Metadata Model”, DL-TR02001 S Goodman, “Two Dietary Regimes for Cancer – Macrobiotics and Gerson”, Positive Health, August 1994. K Sreenivasan, “ICTP a model for excellence in doctoral and post doctoral training for the South”, these proceedings. A Hoummada, “Report on the workshop in the Digital Divide”, Korea, 2005, ibid. C Rubbia, “Energy for the 21st Century”, these proceedings. I Foster & C Kesselman (Eds), “The Grid: Blueprint for a New Computing Infrastructure”, MorganKaufmann (1999). Armageddon, directed by Michael Bay, (1998).

174 [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]

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See http://setiathome.ssl.berkeley.edu/. See http://stephenbrooks.org/muon1/. See http://climateprediction.net/. DA Stainforth et al, Nature, 433, 403-406 (2005). M Livny. See http://www.cs.wisc.edu/condor/

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Other Contributions Bibliotheca Alexandrina – Bridging the Digital Gap Magdy NAGI No written contribution Presentation: 149 slides in English * EUMEDGRID (Empowering e-Science across the Mediterranean) Redouane MERROUCH No written contribution Presentation: 16 slides in French * International ICFA Workshop on HEP Networking, Grids and Digital Divide Issues for Global e-Science (23-28 May 2005, Daegu, Korea) Abdeslam HOUMMADA No written contribution Presentation: 22 slides in English * Round Table: Drug Discovery M. HOFMANN No written contribution Presentation: 16 slides in English * Earth Science Applications Monique PETITIDIDIER No written contribution Presentation: 14 slides in English

Session 7 Water Desalination and Reuse Conveners:

Miriam BALABAN Secretary, European Desalination Society, Italy Azzeddine ELMIDAOUI University of Kenitra

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Synergies between Power Generation and Desalination: Economics and Social Advantages43 Corrado SOMMARIVA President EDS (European Desalination Society) Divisional Director Mott Mac Donald, UK Abstract. Desalination plants can either be stand alone or coupled with medium to large power generation utilities. Often synergies could be found to optimize the use of waste heat from power plant or other resources in desalination plants, This heat would provide benefit to both the power cycle, the environment and would constitute a low cost energy source for driving thermal desalination. The present paper describes some power and desalination coupling typical technology options.

1. Premise Desalination plants can either be stand alone or coupled with medium to large power generation utilities. It is often a concept that the retrofit of thermal desalination downstream a combined cycle (CCGT) or traditional power generation plant is peculiar feature of Middle East countries where oil resources are abundant and therefore energy cost is low. On the contrary often synergies could be found to optimize the use of waste heat from power plant or other resources in desalination plants. The use of this heat would provide a benefit to both the power cycle, the environment and would constitute a low cost energy source for driving thermal desalination. 2. Traditional Cycles Desalination is an energy-intensive process. Thermal desalination power/fuel costs can be optimised if the system is integrated within a power plant’s generating cycle. Evaporative processes present a natural synergy with power generation because they are both using similar process stream (Low pressure steam, condensate etc.) The desalination process is able to make use of low-energy heat for seawater distillation made available from steam turbine extraction. 43

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Since MSF and MED technologies operate at relatively low temperatures their integration into a power cycle is quite convenient. In effect the desalination plant is simply a substitute for the steam turbine condenser of a conventional power circuit. The flow sheet indicated in Figure 1 shows a typical stand-alone thermal desalination and a stand-alone power generation systems with no integration.

Figure 1. Stand alone power and water generation: no integration

An optimized configuration would take the shape of the flow diagram indicated in Figure 2, which is in all respect consistent with the concept of cogeneration, in this case taking the form of combined generation of power and water.

Figure 2. Combined power and water generation: no integration

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Figure 3 below provides an example of the advantages which can be obtained by integrating power and water generation.

Figure 3. Typical heat input with single and double purpose power and water generation

The particular case of Figure 3 shows the heat required to drive three possible process configurations. The first configuration is a single purpose steam turbine of 200 MW, the second case refers to a single purpose MSF desalination of 80 MIGD, while the third case is a combination of the two technologies. As can be seen from Figure 3 the heat required for the combined technologies is substantially lower than the sum of heat required in the stand-alone processes. The process concept indicated in Figure 2 takes the form in new combined cycle gas turbine coupled with thermal desalination indicated in Figure 4 below.

Figure 4. Typical Industrial power and desalination dual purpose plant.

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In order to maximize the use of the steam it is essential to set up the optimal extraction conditions for the thermal desalination plant and ensure that each unit of steam mass is utilized in the steam turbine at the maximum possible extent in order to render the maximum power. Figure 5 show in a typical HS diagram the steam path in a traditional cycle from turbine inlet to steam extraction (distiller and condenser).

Figure 5. Steam turbine expansion line: traditional 93 bar steam and MSF

A conventional thermal desalination plant of MSF ad MED technology would require steam at the following temperature and pressure. Process MSF MED

Steam Temperature 130 °C 80 °C

Steam Pressure 2.5 – 2.3 bar abs 1.8 to 0.4

The use of low grade heat is maximized with the adoption of MED technology which makes use of steam at very low extraction conditions (down to 0.3 bar abs) or even hot water. 3. Look ahead to the Future Generally seawater differential temperature across MSF or MED desalination plant is quite high (11 °C). This fact is recently posing some severe environmental constraints.

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Seawater consumption has not been so far a subject for optimization as no limitations were given for seawater desalination plants in the first desalination plants. Seawater consumption for both MSF and MED ranges between 7.5 to 9 m3 per meter cube of distillate produced. However taking into account that the minimum feed temperature for thermal desalination plants is in the range of 22-24 °C in few instances attempts to combine cooling water have been carried out feeding the MSF plant with seawater branched downstream the power plant condenser as indicated in Figure 7 below.

Figure 7.

In some cases thermal desalination have been retrofitted to the power plant and cooling tower have been re-designed as the seawater temperature would be 9 to 11 °C higher. In alternative for small distillate water generations only (200 to 1,000 m 3/hr) some MSF plant can be installed working on the temperature difference between the cooling water to and from the condenser in accordance to the flow scheme which is indicated below.

Figure 8.

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Basically in this configuration the hot seawater at the condenser outlet would be used a heat source for the MSF which would not need any extraction steam. This mode of operation tends to be expensive on a capital point of view because of the low thermal driving force (only 11 °C) and due to the relatively low stage number that can be accommodated within this temperature difference. On the one hand the system would have the advantage of not using any steam from the power plant (efficiency ∞) therefore the operating cost will be low. On the other hand the construction requirement for an MSF plant operating in the range of 40 °C would be drastically simplified as far as the construction materials are concerned and the extensive use of GRP could drastically reduce the installation cost in future installations. 4. Conclusions An overview on matching water and power generation technology options and recommendation for further improvements have been given in the present report.

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Desalination and Wastewater Reuse Resources to be Considered44 Azzeddine ELMIDAOUI University of Kenitra

Abstract. While the water demand increases dramatically, in particular in the South Mediterranean, its poor quality is responsible of infant mortality. To alleviate these problems, a vigilant policy was adopted in Morocco, based on legal measures, supply of drinking water everywhere, mobilisation of non-conventional resources, sewage and avoiding pollution. Desalination and waste water reuse may become important resources.

Introduction

The water demand in the world is of about 500m³/capita/y, in the two thirds of countries. 80% of diseases and 50% of infant mortality were closely linked to water. The water is responsible of 6-20 million of mortality in the world. The water consumption, in the past century, has increased dramatically, reaching and exceeding the limits of renewable water resources in some areas, such as in North Africa and the Middle East. These trends continue. The great part of the Mediterranean south region is characterized by arid and semiarid conditions. The Mediterranean area is the boundary between the abundance and the water shortage. In 2025, the Mediterranean south will be in a situation of water poverty and water shortage. Table 1 gives in percent the served population with drinking water in some south Mediterranean countries. Table 1. Population served with potable water in %

Egypt

Libya

Mauritania

Tunisia

%

64

Morocco

Consumption L/d/capita

130

131

270

110

82

Country

75

90

64

100

Morocco is characterised by a semi arid climate. Rainfall is very variable from one area to another. It is lower than 300 mm per year in the south and it can exceed the 700 mm per year in the north. In spite of the efforts which were for a long time accomplished in the construction of dams (Morocco has today some 103 dams for approximately 16 billion m 3), the 44

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availability of water decreases with the years. The availability of water was 3,500 m3/capita/year in Morocco in 1960, and 900m 3/capita/y in 2004. In 2020 it will be just about 500m3/capita/y, corresponding to a shortage situation. This is related mainly to the climatic changes and to the dryness periods which were settled for several years leading to a reduction of rainfall of more than 5% and consequently to a reduction in the availability of water of about 20%. The demographic explosion these three last decades and the growing urbanisation due to rural migration because of long periods of dryness and the policy of neglect of the countries for a long time, have strongly contributed to the overexploitation and the deterioration of the water quality. Morocco which had more than 80% of rural population just after independence is today only some 45%. The intense irrigation and the silting of the dams (the silting causes the loss of the equivalent of one dam per year) are also important factors in the reduction and pollution of the water resources. The policy of careful planning and vigilant management adopted by Morocco since 1980 gave satisfactory results for some years, but it reached it limits since 2000. The obligation to use other non conventional water resources such as desalinating water or waste water reuse and the need for a more rigorous policy of planning and water management become a necessity. The great challenges actually in Morocco with regards to water risk managements are several: − − − − −

Policies and legal Supply of drinking water Mobilisation of the nonconventional resources Sewage and pollution Financing

Concerning the supply of drinking water, Morocco has made great progress particularly these last decades. Today the rate of connection to the drinkable water network exceeds 75%, with more than 60% in rural and more than 90% in urban areas. However a national imbalance persists in connexion rates. If this rate reaches 100% in some cities or areas, it remains lower than the average in others. Some peripheral districts of the great agglomerations are not connected or continue to be supplied by terminal fountains. The rural areas require more effort to be connected suitably and definitively. If the quality of distributed water is correct, the distribution networks are not renewed involving enormous losses of drinking water and risks of contamination by the sewage networks. In the field of the non conventional resources, the big progress in Morocco is the use of desalination in spite the relatively high cost per cubic meter. Considerable efforts were mobilised in the south with the construction of several desalination plants in particular by ONEP and the Cherifien Office of Phosphates (OCP). The national production capacity by desalination today exceeds the 30,000 m3/day and will increase rapidly. The ONEP continuously launches invitations to tender for extension of the existing installations and for construction of new installations in the south of the country. The largest installation of more than 80,000m3/d is envisaged by ONEP at Agadir town in 2020 (probably before). The beginning of 2006, OCP will start, a new installation at Layoune in the south of Morocco and already launched an invitation to tender for an installation of some 60,000 m 3/d in the north of Morocco at Jorf Alasfar. However waste water reuse is still the weak point as a non conventional resource. Either these resources are not mobilised enough, or they are mobilised anarchically

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without rigorous and adequate treatment, which constitutes a great danger for the conventional resources and public health. The sewage remains the weak link of the policy of risk management of water in Morocco. The total of the waste water and effluent rejected into the natural environment borders the 650 million cubic meters per year. The total number of waste water treatment plants is of some 64 installations. Just approximately 15 installations are operational treating 6% of the total volume of the rejections under not optimal conditions. The rate of connection in urban environment exceeds the 70% but it is very weak in rural medium. The existing sewage networks are sometimes insufficient and failing. The rain drainage is another very serious problem. Agricultural pollution especially by nitrates and pesticides constitute a permanent danger essentially for the underground waters. The nitrate contents largely exceed the standards in several regions in Morocco. The dilution as solution is not, or will not, be adapted because of the reduction of the water resources. Other types of pollution, such as fluoride pollution, are vulnerable in several regions in Morocco especially in the phosphatic areas. Also in this case dilution is not adapted any more and treatment becomes more and more necessary. These constrain and challenges are practically the same in the Mediterranean South. To overcome these challenges, countries took several initiatives to improve the water management. Efforts for better mobilisation of water resources, for better planning, to improve management, to improve the rate of supply water and sewage networks, to sensitise the population were made. The mobilisation of nonconventional resources especially desalination and water reuse is among the promising solutions. The world capacity of water production by desalination today is approximately 33 million m³, sufficient to supply about 330 million people with drinking water at a use of 100L/capita/d. The principal used technologies are Reverse Osmosis and Distillation. The produced water is used for drinking, industrial uses and irrigation in some cases. The desalination cost decreases continually reaching 0.5 US$ per cubic meter by RO in some cases. However, as it was notified by the World Bank, desalination alone cannot deliver the promise of improved water supply. It should remain the last resort. It should only be applied after having carefully considered cheaper alternatives in term of supply and demand management. More and more, wastewater takes important role in water resources management as a substitute for fresh water in various uses. The water reuse increases more than the desalination: 25% /y in Japan and USA, 28% in Europe, 40% in Australia and Singapore and 60% in Chine. The wastewater rejection in the Arab countries is estimated about of 14 bcm per year with approximately 8 bcm of municipal wastewater and 6bcm of industrial wastewater. Only 50% of the municipal wastewater are treated. About 5% of unconventional water resources are provided by water reuse in the Arab countries. In the South Mediterranean Countries, water reuse has a great potential and would contribute to sustainable management of water resources. Due to limited industrialization, contaminants such as heavy metals and synthetic chemicals are found at very low concentration in domestic wastewater in the South. The reasons of the increase of water reuse in the South are: protect environment, scarcity of conventional water resources and decreasing cost with regard to other alternative water resources. In Morocco, the investment in sewage will be about 4 billion US$ for the 2003-2007 period.

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Management and Distributed Monitoring of Water Resources45 Elpida TZAFESTAS a, Gerasimos RIGATOS b and Constantinos GARAGUNIS c a Institute for Communication and Information Systems, Athens, Greece b Institute for Industrial Systems, Patras, Greece c School of Mines and Metallurgy, National Technical University of Athens, Greece Abstract. Problems concerning the management of available water in Greece present several specific issues due to the geography of the country and to the intensity of economic activity, especially tourism. We propose an integrated, computerized, and distributed approach for the management and monitoring of subterranean water which is based on a rational taking into account of the presence of modest resources, functional needs in terms of production and consumption of water, and dynamic quality criteria. What we propose is based on the experience of daily reality, on an irreplaceable experience—that of living on an island.

Speech at the Roundtable Urban areas including suburbs suffer in general from a sharply increasing lack of available subterranean water for several reasons, first of all increased populations and rural and industrial activity. In addition, the quality of the water is deteriorating because of environmental pollution and problematic management. For a country like Greece, which lives from tourism and suffers from an unequal seasonal distribution of rainfall, management of water destined for human consumption is problematic. More problematic than for other countries on the Mediterranean perimeter who have been represented during this colloquium, because of a limited continental area and a thousand islands dispersed in the Aegean Sea. We propose an integrated, computerized, and distributed approach to managing and monitoring subterranean waters in the context mentioned above. Our vision is based on consideration of the following subjects: 1.

Management and monitoring of natural resources These are becoming increasingly incapable of responding to the needs of today and of tomorrow. A longer-term plan would be implemented, supporting a policy of the replacement, exploitation, and integration of modest natural resources. Our experience is irreplaceable; it is based on the daily life of a large number of customers that the elaborate speculations of research centers don’t have access to.

45

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2.

Functional problems in terms of production and consumption You would have to be blind to not to perceive, in the entire Mediterranean basin, the absence of the notion of maintenance, aggravated by fraud: rigged meters, pirated connections engendering uncontrolled leaks that are also causes of indirect pollution. For all these crimes, we have a solution based on the daily practice of reporting offenses. The plan for the exploitation of resources should be revised to become more operational within the framework of the direct supply to cities (water agencies) and indirect supply through distribution of bottled products. The regulation of demand, as of supply, will be expressed in complex terms of flow management, transport, and management in networks. 3.

Water quality This criterion is just as vital as that of available volume; it is threatened by the spread of environmental pollution. All flow management should come within the scope of current and predicted environmental dynamics. That is the key to viable and economically sound solutions for the future of the country.

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Other Contributions Growth of the Desalination Literature and the Community Miriam BALABAN Secretary, European Desalination Society, Italy No written contribution Presentation: 25 slides in English * Desalination Programme in Algeria Mourad AMARA No written contribution Presentation: 51 slides in French * The State of Desalination Activity in Tunisia Béchir HAMROUNI No written contribution Presentation: 17 slides in French * Specific Treatment for Producing Drinking Water at ONEP Mahmoud HAFSI ONEP, Morocco No written contribution Presentation: 29 slides in French * Water Management and Wind Desalination in Morocco Khalid TAHRI ONEP, Morocco No written contribution

Session 8 Participation of Southern Countries in International Programmes: CERN Convener: John ELLIS Advisor to the Director General of CERN

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The Participation of Southern Countries in International Programmes: CERN is not an Ivory Tunnel46 John ELLIS Theory Division, Physics Department, CERN Abstract. CERN is a pure research laboratory devoted to elementary particle physics. On top of this mission of discovery, it has also the duties of technological innovation, of human resource development and international collaboration, the latter not being restricted to its member states, as explained in this paper.

1. Developing New Scientific Partnerships CERN has four basic missions. First and foremost is scientific research and discovery, of which it has produced many examples during the past half-century. However, this was not the only motivation for founding CERN over fifty years ago, and it is not the only reason why it continues to attract support from European and other governments. Another important mission is technological innovation, which provides spin-offs the potential for valuable industrial collaboration. Also important is advanced training: CERN is a centre for many aspects of human resource development, from schools to postdoctoral fellowships. Last but not least, CERN has many decades of experience in international collaboration, not restricted to its member states, but increasingly also with non-member states outside Europe. All these basic missions enable CERN to serve as a potential source of benefits for Southern countries, as discussed below. First, however, let us recall the principal current scientific objectives of CERN. 2. Prospects in Particle Physics All experiments on the fundamental structure of matter are well described by the Standard Model of particle physics, which was proposed about 40 years ago by Abdus Salam, Sheldon Glashow and Steven Weinberg. The Standard Model has been subjected to crucial tests in experiments at CERN and elsewhere, and is in good agreement with all confirmed laboratory results. However, this success leaves open many important questions beyond the Standard Model. What is the origin of particle masses, and are they due to a new type of particle, called a Higgs boson, as suggested by Salam, Glashow and Weinberg? Why are there 46

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so many different types of matter particles, and is the small difference between matter and antimatter that has been observed in laboratory experiments related to the preponderance of matter in the Universe today? Are the fundamental forces unified, as suggested by Einstein and others? How can one combine General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics and formulate a true quantum theory of gravity? The problem of the origin of particle masses seems the most pressing. Newton showed that weight is proportional to mass, and Einstein showed how energy is related to mass, but neither of them explained where mass comes from in the first place. According to the Higgs theory, there is an as-yet-unobserved field permeating space that is responsible for particle masses, and associated with this field there is a Higgs boson weighing less than about a thousand times the proton mass. Another fundamental problem that may be solved in the same mass-energy range is the nature of the invisible dark matter that astrophysicists and cosmologists tell us fills the Universe. This may well be composed of massive weakly-interacting particles. For them to have the right relic density, these dark matter particles should also weigh less than about a thousand proton masses. One of the prime candidates for this dark matter is provided by supersymmetry, a theory that would also be useful for the Higgs theory, for unifying the fundamental interactions, and for making a quantum theory of gravity based on string theory. Supersymmetry is therefore one of the prime candidates for new physics beyond the Standard Model. Another popular suggestion is that extra dimensions of space may appear at the TeV scale. 3. The Large Hadron Collider The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is an accelerator under construction at CERN that will collide pairs of protons, each with an energy of about 7,000 times the proton mass, making around a billion collisions per second. The high energy and collision rate will enable the LHC to explore the origin of mass and the nature of dark matter, as well as look for small differences between matter and antimatter and produce the plasma of quarks and gluons that is thought to have filled the Universe during the first millionth of a second of its existence. The LHC accelerator is being constructed inside a tunnel of 27km in circumference at an average depth approaching 100m. Whilst most of the accelerator is provided by CERN’s European member states, there are important contributions to the LHC accelerator from the United States, Russia, Japan, India and Canada, as well as some smaller contributions from Argentina and Pakistan. Figure 1 shows the installation of one of the main dipole magnets in the LHC tunnel.

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Figure 1. Installation of one of the LHC magnets in the accelerator tunnel.

The LHC will have four large experimental detectors, the two biggest (ATLAS and CMS) being designed to look for Higgs bosons and supersymmetric particles. Figure 2 shows cutaway drawings of ATLAS and CMS. Their external dimensions are measured in tens of metres, while their internal components must be aligned with micrometer accuracy.

Figure 2. Cutaway drawings of the large ATLAS and CMS detectors for the LHC.

Figure 3 shows some recent photos of progress in their construction. Each of these detectors is being constructed by collaborations of about 2000 scientists and engineers from dozens of countries around the world. The LHC is a truly global project, with significant participation by Southern countries, including Brazil, Morocco, Turkey and potentially Argentina in the case of ATLAS, and Pakistan, Iran and potentially Brazil and Egypt in the case of CMS, as well as non-European Northern countries. The first panel of Figure 4 shows the laboratory in Casablanca where electronics for the ATLAS detector have been tested, and the second panel shows a medical physics laboratory at CERN being visited by a professor and students from the United Arab Emirates, a country which has recently made a Cooperation Agreement with CERN.

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Figure 3. Progress on the construction of the ATLAS and CMS detectors.

Figure 4. (left) The ATLAS testing laboratory in Casablanca, and (right) scientists from the United Arab Emirates visiting CERN.

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4. Technical Innovation Medical physics is just one of the many areas where technologies developed at CERN have found interesting applications. Perhaps the most prominent example is the WorldWide Web, which was developed in 1990 to enable the large international collaborations of scientists working with CERN to share information. CERN decided not to patent the World-Wide Web, but rather to release it for open public use – little imagining the world-wide social revolution that it would trigger! As discussed in another session of this conference, CERN is now spearheading the next stage in the integration of world-wide computer resources: the Grid. This will enable the creation on demand of powerful virtual computing systems, via the global sharing of computer memories, CPUs and software. The Grid will be essential for handling and analyzing all the data that will be produced by the LHC, which will need computing power equivalent to about 100,000 of today’s personal computers. However, the Grid will also be invaluable for many other scientific (and nonscientific) applications. Some of these include medicine and health care (for imaging, diagnosis and treatment), bioinformatics (for the study of the human genome and proteome to understand genetic diseases), nanotechnology (to design new materials from the molecular scale), engineering (for design optimization, simulation, failure analysis and remote instrument access and control), natural resources and the environment (for weather forecasting, earth observation, the modelling and prediction of natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis). Among these applications are many with potential benefits for Southern countries, and CERN is keen to share Grid technology with interested partners around the world. 5. CERN as Educator CERN has extensive training programmes, ranging from school visits and courses for high-school teachers, through apprenticeships and internships for undergraduate students, training for technical and doctoral students, and postdoctoral research fellowships. CERN is ready to provide access to these programmes for students and scientists from Southern countries. Of particular interest may be CERN’s programme for high-school teachers (which had two Mexican participants in 2005) and the summer intern programme for undergraduates (which always has Southern students, including participants this year from Thailand and Madagascar). Each year, CERN also organizes schools for advanced students in computing and accelerator physics, as well as particle physics. Every other year, a physics school is organized jointly with the Latin-American Centre for Physics (CLAF): it has already been held in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina (in 2005), and the next school will be held in Chile in 2007. We are also planning an accelerator physics school in India, and are ready to support other regional schools in cooperation with interested Southern countries. 6. International Collaboration There are several possible levels of collaboration with CERN. Full membership is open to interested European countries, which are currently 20 in number. The original

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member states were from Western Europe, which were followed after the end of the Cold War by several countries from Eastern and Central Europe. The foundation of CERN actually predated the European Union, and its expansion eastwards also predated that of the Union. Associate Membership, with lower financial commitments and correspondingly fewer rights and responsibilities, is open to non-European countries, but no country has yet adopted it. A number of countries (India, Israel, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the United States) are Observer States, with rights to attend meetings of the CERN Council and participate in its discussions. UNESCO and the European Commission also have Observer status. Additionally, CERN has Cooperation Agreements with governments or their agencies from 30 other countries around the world. These include many from the former Soviet Union, Latin America, Africa and Asia, as well as the region of the Southern Mediterranean and Middle East. In addition, scientists from about ten other countries participate in physics experiments at CERN, and CERN has established preliminary contacts with about a dozen other countries. In total, over 6,000 scientists collaborate actively with CERN, of whom about one third come from non-member states. These scientists remain based in their home universities and research institutes, where they prepare hardware, software and analyze data. They come to CERN for varying periods of time to take data, train and meet scientists from other countries. The European Union has recently funded the HELEN scientific network, in order to develop further the existing collaboration between Latin America and CERN by financing scientific exchange visits in both directions. An analogous network in information technology has recently been approved by the European Union. CERN would be happy to seek funding for analogous networks to develop further relations with countries in the Southern Mediterranean, Middle East and other regions of the world. Currently, Turkey and Israel are CERN Observer States, and we have Cooperation Agreements with Pakistan (since 1994, participation in the CMS experiment), Morocco (since 1997, participation in the ATLAS experiment), Iran (since 2001, participation in the CMS experiment) and Jordan (since 2004, covering the SESAME project), and further Cooperation Agreements have been made with Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Currently, the European Union does not provide a framework analogous to that for the HELEN network, but NATO is interested in encouraging scientific cooperation in this region. The following are some possible recommendations to NATO in this direction: − Encourage local governments to facilitate cooperation in high-energy physics and related technologies, e.g., by organizing regional workshops; − Support analogous patterns of cooperation in other ‘big sciences’, such as space science, fusion research, and biology; − Provide financial support for scientific exchanges across the Mediterranean; − Work with the European Union to fund networks analogous to HELEN in highenergy physics and information technology.

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7. Physics is Universal As discussed briefly in this talk, particle physics also addresses fundamental questions about the origin and composition of the Universe. In a real sense, particle accelerators are telescopes as well as microscopes, and the laboratory is a microcosm of the macrocosm. CERN’s research objectives address basic scientific issues of interest to all humanity, and the organization is open to interested scientists from all countries. The research conducted at CERN also requires, develops and provides access to many basic technologies of general value. In particular, our research programme has the potential to benefit significantly Southern countries. We welcome more cooperation across and around the Mediterranean. 8. Outline of the Session After this brief introduction to CERN and its partnerships outside Europe, the subsequent speakers present some particular examples, including Morocco, Iran, Egypt and Algeria, followed by a general discussion.

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Moroccan participation in ATLAS 47 Driss BENCHEKROUN For the ATLAS MOROCCO group University Hassan II Aïn Chock, Faculty of Science Aïn Chock Casablanca, Morocco Abstract. This paper provides a brief summary of Moroccan participation in the ATLAS project at the CERN. The Moroccan contribution has concerned various fields, ranging from instrumentation to the study of physical processes, and has yielded very rich scientific results.

Introduction In September 1996, Morocco officially became part of the ATLAS experiment at the European Centre for Nuclear Research (CERN), thus becoming the first Arab and African country to take part in the experiment, which currently brings together 1,700 physicians from the five continents. It had been participating on an informal basis ever since the early 1990s, when Moroccan physicists contributed to the CERN RD3 Research & Development project and to the setting-up and running of an irradiation station for the SARA accelerator in Grenoble. Regarding the exchanges carried out as part of the programme, we began with a group of exchange arrangements between the Moroccan universities taking part in the project and French laboratories. These arrangements were PICS (International Programme for Scientific Cooperation) or PAIs (Integrated Actions Programme) and were of limited duration, which constitutes a drawback for large projects functioning in the long term. To perpetuate these exchanges, a GRDI (International Research Group) bringing together France, Sweden and Morocco was set up in 2004. Morocco is represented in the GDRI “Liquid argon calorimetrics” by the University Network of High-Energy Physics (RUPHE), a structure bringing together four universities and the CNESTEN (National Centre for Science Energies and Nuclelear Techniques). France is represented by three universities, and Sweden by the KTH (Royal Institute of Technology) in Stockholm. In this paper, I propose to sum up some ten years of Moroccan participation in the ATLAS experiment. The contributions which preceded the officialisation of Moroccan participation will likewise be set out.

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1. The LHC and the ATLAS Detector The LHC (Large Hadron Collider) is a proton-proton collider with an energy of 14 TeV in the centre of mass (7 TeV per beam). It will be operational in 2007 and will make it possible to recreate the conditions that presided in the Universe a picosecond after the Big Bang. The LHC will be installed in the 27-kilometer-long tunnel of the LEP (Large Electron-Positron Collider) and will enable two proton beams to come into collision every 25 nanoseconds. The LHC is also designed to accelerate heavy ions, such as lead ions, to an energy in the centre of mass of the order of 1148 TeV. The LHC’s main goal is to search for the Higgs boson, the discovery of which constitutes the latest experimental proof of the Standard Model of particle physics. The search for eventual signs of a physics beyond the Standard Model, by the discovery of new particles (supersymmetrical particles, new gauge bosons, etc.) also forms part of the LHC’s physics programme. ATLAS (A Toroïdal LHC Apparatus) is one of four experiments planned with the LHC. The ATLAS detector (Figure 1) [1] takes the form of a cylinder 44 meters long, 22 meters in diameter and with a total weight of 7,000 tons. Starting from the point of collision, the particles produced come into contact with the Inner Detector, the electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters and the muon spectrometer. Moroccan participation in the construction of ATLAS concerned the liquid argon part of the electromagnetic calorimeter. In what follows I shall set out in detail the different aspects of the Moroccan contribution to the project.

Figure 1. The ATLAS detector

2. Study of the Contamination of Liquid Argon by Neutronic Irradiation In the LHC, each proton-proton collision will produce some twenty particles composed of pions, protons and so on, which through interaction with the matter of the Detector

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and its environment will produce neutrons. Expected fluence at the level of the ATLAS detector will be of the order of 10 13–1014 neutrons per cm2 per annum. This flux of neutrons may be at the origin of the deterioration of the performances of the ATLAS sub-detectors. The choice of materials for the mechanical and electronic components that have the best possible resistance to neutron radiation was crucial. An irradiation station was therefore built at Grenoble alongside the Rhône-Alpes Accelerators System (SARA) in order to permit a selection of neutron-resistant materials. The results of these studies [2] have made it possible to select little-contaminating materials in order to reduce the attenuation of the signal from the electromagnetic calorimeter during the ten years of the LHC’s functioning. 3. Contribution to the Construction of the ATLAS Detector and the Electronics Design 3.1. Construction of the Central ATLAS Presampler The presampler is a detector that will be fitted to the front of the electromagnetic calorimeter to improve energy resolution when measuring the ionisation produced by particle showers. Construction of the presampler began in 1991 with a first prototype called a “preshower” or particle showers detector [3]. The central ATLAS presampler was built as part of the collaboration between Morocco, France and Sweden. The presampler consists of 64 sectors arranged in two half-barrels. Each sector consists of eight modules of different lengths, each module being composed of a succession of electrodes (anodes and cathodes) separated by a volume of active liguid argon (Figure 2). The number of electrodes needed to construct the presampler is 50,000 anodes and 50,000 cathodes. Morocco was in charge of the qualification tests for all the anodes of the presampler.

Figure 2. A presampler module

After the soldering of four protective resistors, each anode is submitted to a series of tests involving verification of thickness, high-voltage holding capability, and electrical verification with the aid of a test bench specially designed for qualifying the

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presampler’s anodes (Figure 3). The various stages of the construction of the central presampler are set out in detail in the references [4].

Figure 3. Test bench for the anodes of the presampler

The Moroccan group was also involved in inserting the sectors of the presampler (tested in Grenoble and Stockholm) in front of the modules of the electromagnetic calorimeter before inserting the whole assembly in the cryostat (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Insertion of the presampler sectors in the detector at CERN

3.2. Assembling the Modules of the Electromagnetic Calorimeter The ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter is a sampling calorimeter composed of a series of lead plates that act as absorbers and of active layers filled with liquid argon. The whole assembly is shaped like an accordeon. During their stays at the LAPP (Laboratory of Particle Physics at Annecy-le-Vieux, France), members of the Moroccan group took part in the following operations:

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− assembling and cabling of the pre-series module and of certain modules made at the LAPP; − mechanical and electronic qualification tests carried out during the stacking; − tests at the cabling stage.

The Moroccan group, in collaboration with the Laboratory of Subatomic Phsyics and Cosmology of Grenoble, worked on developing an auto-zero amplifier for the ATLAS experiment [5]. Of the various solutions developed during the collaboration, this amplifier was adopted as the back-up version. It was later adapted for use in the EUSO experiment (Extreme Universe Observatory). 4. Participation in the Collecting and Analysis of Beam-Test Data

Beam tests are an important stage in the construction of a detector, since they enable us to study the performances of the different parts of the detector under conditions similar to the operating conditions of the LHC detector. During the period 1998–2003, regular campaigns of beam tests were organised. Figure 5 shows two sectors of the presampler set up opposite a module of the calorimeter before being inserted in the cryostat for beam tests. Moroccan participation in the collecting and analysis of data concerned the tests on the electromagnetic calorimeter (the central calorimeter and the end-caps of the electromagnetic calorimeter). The results of these tests were the subject of various notes and articles [6]. Moroccan participation in the analysing of the data bore on the following points:

− study of the performances of the calorimeter and the presampler (energy resolution, linearity, etc.); − study of the diaphony and energy resolution of the end-cap modules of the electromagnetic calorimeter.

Figure 5. Two sectors of the presampler installed in front of a module of the electromagnetic calorimeter during beamtests at CERN

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Between July and October 2004, combined tests were carried out at the CERN. These tests brought together parts of all the detector’s components (Figure 6) and enabled us to gain a better understanding of the overall functioning of the detector and to test the data acquisition and analysis programmes devloped during the collaboration. A seminar on the analysis of the data from the combined tests was held in Morocco in December 2005.

Figure 6. Experimental set up for combined tests

The data from the different tests were compared with the results of the Monte Carlo simulations undertaken with the support of the Geant3 and Geant4 programmes [7]. The Moroccan group was responsible for the development and maintenance of the presampler geometry programme [8]. The programme was then integrated in the ATLAS global geometry programme for the simulations of beam tests or physical processes. 5. Simulation of Physical Processes at the LHC

Moroccan physicists were also involved in physical simulation work bearing on the possibilities of observing certain processes at the LHC with the ATLAS detector. The subjects treated concerned both standard model physics and the search for new forms of physics predicted by its extensions. Physical process simulation studies also enable one to develop the strategies that will be used during the analysis of the LHC’s real data. Among the subjects treated, let me cite: − a study of the possibilities for observing new gauge bosons through the ATLAS detector [9]; − production of neutral pairs of Higgs bosons in the framework of the MSSN model at the LHC; − detection of neutral trilinear couplings in the production of gauge bosons ZZ and Z_[11]; − production of b quarks at the LHC [12]; − determination of the structure function of gluon at the LHC [13].

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Conclusion Moroccan participation in the ATLAS project involved several fields and required enormous efforts on the part of Moroccan high-energy physicists. The first nine years of that participation yielded very rich scientific results, with the publication of several articles, and vivas for several doctoral theses. Efforts are currently focused on preparing the human and material means for analysing the LHC data as of 2007. Particular interest is focussed to the setting-up of a common calculation centre and subsequently to integrating the LHC’s calculation grid. Références [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]

[6]

[7] [8]

[9] [10] [11] [12] [13]

ATLAS collaboration, ATLAS Technical Proposal. CERN/LHCC/94-43. A. Belymam et al., Nucl. Inst. And Meth. in Phys. Res. B 134 (1998) 217-223. M.L. Andrieux et al., ATL-LARG-98. M.L. Andrieux et al., Nucl. Inst. And Meth. in Phys. Res. B 183 (2001) 337-346. R.D. Davis et al., Nucl. Inst. And Meth. in Phys. Res. A 385 (1997) 47-57. M.L. Andrieux et al., Nucl. Inst. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A 479 Issues 2-3 (2002) 316. D. Dzahini & H. Ghazlane, 8e workshop on Electronics for LHC Experiments Septembre 2002, Colmar, France. D. Dzahini & H. Ghazlane, 2003 IEEE Nuclear Science Symposium & Medical Imaging Conference. Octobre 2003 Portland Oregon USA. A. Akhmadaliev et al., Nucl. Inst. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A 448 (2000) 461-477. A. Akhmadaliev et al., Nucl. Inst. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A 480 Issues 2-3 (2002) 508. B. Aubert et al., Nucl. Inst. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A 500 (2003) 178-201. B. Aubert et al., Nucl. Inst. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A 500 (2003) 202-231. Geant4 collaboration, S. Agostinelli et al , Nucl. Inst. and Meth. in Phys. Res. A 506 (2003), 250-303. D. Benchekroun, J. Collot , ATLAS Internal Note, ATL-LARG-2001-015. D. Benchekoun et al., CHEP'01 - Beijing - China, September 3-7, 2001. D. Benchekroun et al., 10th International Conference on Calorimetry in High Energy Physics, CALOR2002, Pasadena, California, USA, March 25-29, 2002. D.Benchekroun, C. Driouichi, A. Hoummada, Eur. Phys. Journal EPJdirect (Vol. 3) CN3 (2001) 1-17. M. El Kacimi, R. Lafaye, ATLAS Internal Note, ATL-PHYS-2002-015. S. Hassani, thèse université Paris Sud (2002). M. El Kacimi, D. Goujdami et R. Lafaye, CIS2003, 23-25 avril Marrakech-Maroc. El M. Abouelouafa, R. Cherkaoui, ATLAS Internal Note, ATL-PHYS-2001-014.

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Developing Collaboration with CERN48 Mohamed M. SHERIF Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Cairo Universit. Abstract. The collaboration between CERN and Egypt has entered a more active phase and is seen as particularly important to limit the brain drain Egypt is facing. It will also improve communication between North and South and help in the technology transfer.

The relation between Egypt and CERN began initially in limited scale in the early eightieth but more fully in Jan 2003, when workshop at high energy physics between the two sides was created at Cairo University. This yielded a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between CERN, Cairo University and (NCP) National Center of Physics in Pakistan. The three sides of the agreement agreed to cooperate in the assembly and testing of the Resistive Plate Chambers for the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) Detector for the LHC Project at CERN, as well as in the analysis of the associated beam-test data. This article in the MOU has not been yet implemented except for limited number (six) of short fellowships provided by CERN to Cairo University; this is in addition to training fellowships offered by COMSAT to Cairo University. There are number of reasons for the delay in the implementation of some articles in this MOU. The main of these reasons the agreement between the Government of Egypt and CERN not signed until now, because of the change of the Egyptian Minister of higher education and research in 2004.The new Minister launched a major policy reforms in the field of scientific research in Egypt, and he postponed the signing of any agreements on behalf the Egyptian government, until these reforms have at least been structured. The Ministry of higher education is now in the process of completing the administrative requirements for this agreement and it is expected the Minister of higher education to visit CERN to sign this agreement. The Ministry is going to establish a coordination office between CERN and Egypt. The collaboration between Egypt and CERN will cover many fields including CMS experiment, grid computing in addition to the needs of other Egyptian universities and research centers. The progress of this work will depend on the availability of financial support from the Egyptian government and/or external sources.

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1. Progress since 2003 till now CERN has provided six training fellowships to Cairo University at CERN, this has enabled the Egyptian side to learn more about the particle physics and the future experiments at CERN related to LHC. The group of Cairo University has generated the first research paper in the field in ICRC2005 in India. In this work, the energy spectrum of muons penetrating to the CMS cavern which initiated by primary cosmic ray proton are shown in logarithmic scale in Figure 1 and Figure 2. This work will be further developed and published in the scientific journals.

Figure 1. The three curves are corresponding to primary energies, from down to up, 1014 eV, 1015 eV and 1016 eV respectively.

Figure 2. The four curves are corresponding to primary energies, from down to up, 1017 eV, 1018 eV, 1019 eV and 1020 eV respectively.

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In my view the future's experiments at CERN will required a younger generation of researcher of a good scientific standard and free of psychological or political barriers. Concerning Egypt, since it is new in the field of collaboration with CERN, there will be no problems in collaborating with European countries or Mediterranean countries. The collaboration between Egypt and CERN provides a solution to the problem of brain drain which faces Egypt. Through the established easy contacts between Egypt and CERN, CERN is providing solution to scientific and technological problems facing the Egyptian side. This does compensate for continues departing trained researchers at Egypt. Brain drain is also reason for the inability yet to form complete scientific groups in Egypt. The cooperation between Egypt and Mediterranean countries in particle physics is still unfortunately limited for psychological, political and other factors. The presents of international and national organizations such as CERN, ASAF, CNRS and IN2P3, as organizers and sustainers of this cooperation are very crucial for the area. Because of my deep conviction in the above, I wrote to Cairo University to invite the conference of sharing knowledge across the Mediterranean to be at Cairo University next year. Thank you.

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A Plea for Experimental 49 Particle Physics in Algeria Farès DJAMA50 CPPM, CNRS/IN2P3-Université Méditerranée, Marseille Abstract. Particle physics is absent from Algeria. The present contribution seeks to explain the reasons for this absence, to develop an argument that will attract Algerian universities and to suggest an approach to initiating research in the short term. The analysis provided here is the fruit of discussions with an informal group of Algerian physicists working in Europe, in the light of our own personal experience and the contacts we are endeavouring to strike up with our colleagues from Algeria.

Introduction The aim of this article is to develop an argument that will initiate experimental particle physics research in Algeria. The scientific, technological and strategic interest of particle physics, together with the prospects for collaboration with the CERN, are discussed in Part I. Part II analyses the reasons for the absence of such research in Algerian universities, identifies potential collaborators and fixes a realistic goal for the medium term. 1. Particle Physics 1.1. Scientific Interest Particle physics studies the ultimate constituants of matter. Its goal is to construct a coherent, unified model of particles and their interactions. Knowledge of the infinitesimally small also throws light on the first instants of the universe, before the formation of the structures that we know today. Particle physics is the very archetype of fundamental science. The concepts and tools it employs are part of modern scientific culture, and the research policy of an emerging country cannot remain cut off from this crucial sphere of knowledge.

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1.2. Technological Interest Experiments in particle physics develop and use an extremely wide range of technologies. Some new technologies have come to light within the discipline itself, such as the invention of the web at the CERN, or the development of massive calculation grids. The techniques we employ are manifold: micro-electronics, optics, cryogenics, vacuum, superconductors, precision mechanics, information technology, signal treatment, metallurgy, chemistry, and many more. We collaborate continuously with industry, and we possess first-rate technical skills, together with the most up-to-date equipment, in our laboratories. In addition to our activities in fundamental research, we capitalise on those skills by initiating projects that lie outside our discipline but make use of techniques we have developed. The most promising fields, that have already proved an indisputable success, are medical imagery, proton-therapy and scientific calculation. New teams in particle physics could in turn initiate technological activities and have their associates benefit from practical spin-offs such as access to calculation grids. 1.3. Strategic Aspect Particle physics develops, constructs and makes use of large apparatuses: accelerators, detectors, big installations. This equipment is concentrated in a limited number of sites around the world (CERN, Fermilab, DESY, SLAC, KEK, and a few smaller sites). Collaborations are, by their very nature, international. The size of the equipment, the wide range of techniques employed and the large number of possible research subjects in a given experiment explain the scale of current collaborations. By way of example, the ATLAS collaboration at the CERN numbers nearly 2,000 scientists from 150 institutes in 34 countries. An environment of this kind favours the training of elites who possess a broader and more accurate vision of the stakes of research and the ability to defend them before decision-makers. Within these large teams, young scientists are confronted very early on with managing, taking responsibility and engaging in healthy rivalry, on a wide variety of levels, depending on individual experience and aptitude. In the industrialised countries, elites who have been trained in particle physics can be found in a wide range of fields, in some instances far removed from fundamental research and teaching. The most popular fields remain information technology and calculation, instrumentation, electronics, finance, the automobile industry, aeronautics and civil nuclear energy, spheres in which they can apply techniques aquired or developed in our field. All the industrialised countries, as well as the emerging powers (China, India, Brazil, South Korea, South Africa), participate in particle physics research. Many under-developed countries have joined them in recent years (Morocco, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt), making the absence of Algeria all the more conspicuous. 1.4. Collaborating with CERN CERN is the closest particle physics laboratory to the Mediterranean zone, and some of its members (all the major countries of Western Europe) are already the preferred partners of southern-Mediterranean countries in a large number of fields. Taking part in

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experiments at CERN would seem like a natural step for Algeria, therefore, following the example of Morocco. Scientific collaboration at CERN involves accessing and analysing data collected from experiments, and supervising trainees and PhD students during their time there. The technical side depends on the institute’s technological possibilities and the point in the history of an experiment at which the collaboration occurs. This can be anything from taking part in a research and development programme for the construction of a detector or carrying out final tests before the launching of an experiment, to sub-contracting the production and testing of certain elements of an experiment in the course of construction. The CERN laboratory is also an environment in which young scientists can flourish. Its international standing, and its equipment and skills create a highly stimulating atmosphere that can open new horizons for those who stay there. 2. Particle Physics in Algeria 2.1. Why is Algeria Absent? The historical shift that occurred in Europe, from nuclear to particle physics, never took place in Algeria. The teams that collaborated mainly with French laboratories (Ganil, Saturn, Strasbourg) never took that step. It ought to have been taken in the early 1990s, a time that marks the beginning of Algeria’s “dark decade”, which didn’t help matters. One consequence of the tragic events Algeria went through at that time has been the growing paucity of visas delivered to scientists. To our colleagues in Algeria this seems like an extra punishment. The other major reason the shift did not occur is the lack of anticipation and strategy on the part of those involved in research in Algeria. Today, it seems to me that, thanks to brighter prospects on the security and economic fronts, Europe’s political commitment to cooperation and Algeria’s commitment to structuring its research are coming together for a new departure. This new order should not make us overlook other problems. One of the most alarming of these is a disaffection with scientific careers among the best students. Upgrading the research and teaching professions is one incentive that might help attract the best elements once more. 2.2. Who should we Collaborate with in Algeria? The scientists most likely to be interested in experimental particle physics are those from the related disciplines of nuclear physics and theoretical physics. There could be said to be two types of university that are potential candidates to initiate work on particle physics: 1.

Large universities that have a tradition in nuclear physics and are known for their work in theoretical physics (Alger, Oran, Constantine). The apathy of these large institutions could be a drawback when it comes to making a quick start.

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Smaller or new universities that have recently initiated work in theoretical physics and peri-nuclear science (Sétif, Béjaïa, Jijel, etc.). 51 Being small they are more flexible, and the presence of young seniors would make it easier to integrate them in a discipline that, for all that it is related, is nonetheless different. In the early stages, the main drawbacks would be geographical isolation and a certain lack of experience in international collaboration.

2.3. Medium-Term Goal A realistic scenario for collaboration with an Algerian university could have as one of its goals the participation of a team in analysing data collected from the CERN’s future big accelerator, the LHC, starting in 2007. Algerian PhD students would constitute the spearhead of such a scenario. Training Algerian students in theoretical and nuclear physics would allow them to fit easily into particle physics. Most of these degree programmes consist of courses in field theory and the theory of interaction between radiation and matter. This training should be completed with specific courses, taught on site, or with participation in international schools. These PhD students would be integrated in French teams, under joint guardianship, and would stay regularly in France or at CERN. A scenario for providing a minimum of computer technology exists and can easily be implemented to allow these doctoral students to access and analyse data from their campuses, as is the case with the other institutes that take part in experiments in particle physics. These first PhD students could later perpetuate the study of particle physics in Algeria by setting up specific degree courses and supervising further PhD students in their turn. The Moroccan experience (see the contribution of D. Benchekroun) is a particularly good ilustration of this and demonstrates the feasibibility of such a project. 2.4. Pilot Scheme with the University of Sétif Initial contacts with students from the University of Sétif were made at the École Algéro-Française de Physique-Chimie, held at Jijel in December 2004. A cooperation scheme between the team from the Centre de Physique des Particules de Marseille taking part in the ATLAS experiment with the LHC and the nuclear physics laboratory at Sétif is in gestation. An application for support from the TASSILI cooperation programme, part of the EGIDE association which looks after State cooperation funding in France, has been submitted. 3. Conclusion The renewed interest in research in Algeria cannot afford to neglect a field as important as particle physics. On the northern shores of the Mediterranean, there is an unprecedented political will to cooperate with Algeria, and it would be a shame to miss such an opportunity. Particle physics is a discipline that provides solid scientific grounding, as well as opening up new horizons for science and technology. 51

We have constant contacts with these universities. The list is therfore incomplete.

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An opening of this kind would facilitate and benefit other projects, such as integrating the southern Mediterranean countries in the broad-band optical fiber network and in calculation grids. 4. Acknowledgements My warmest thanks go to the AFAS association and, in particular, to R. Klapisch for his invitation, to J. Ellis for his encouragement and to the organisers for their welcome and their time. A friendly thought for my ATLAS colleagues in Morocco, who have greatly contributed to the success of this conference.

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

Other Contributions Iranian High Energy Physics Group Activities at CERN Majid HASHEMI University of Teheran, Visitor at CERN No written contribution Presentation: 14 slides in English

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Session 9 Natural Risks in the Mediterranean Convener: Yves LANCELOT Research Director at CNRS, Marseille

Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

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Seismic Risk in the Mediterranean Regions52 Paul TAPPONNIER IPG Paris Abstract. The Mediterranean is not the most seismic region on the globe but is very complicated as it involves a number of small oceanic basins and micro-blocks. Understanding, even partially, the very different earthquake mechanisms requires fine studies in the fields and is essential for taking appropriate measures. Some examples such as the Marmara sea are somewhat developed in this context.

I am going to begin with the first part of one of the questions Yves Lancelot suggested: what do we understand at the present time about Mediterranean seismicity? What do we know about that seismicity? What would we like to know? What should be done to find out more? The Mediterranean is not the most seismic region on the globe. It’s a seismic region, but which pales in comparison with zones like Japan, California, Alaska, Chile or even China. It’s an extremely complicated region because, as you can see from this map (Figure 1), there are earthquakes with very different mechanisms, which affect a region in which we have a mosaic of small oceanic basins separated by microblocks and continental peninsulas, and it’s harder to know what is happening in regions of this type.

Figure 1. 52

Transcription from oral in French and translation.

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Broadly speaking, we all know that Mediterranean seismicity, the deformations of the Mediterranean, are the outcome of a convergence between the African plate, the Arabic plate and the Eurasian plate. There is more activity in the eastern than in the western Mediterranean because of a repercussion of the Arabia–Eurasia collision which chases Anatolia westward, and we see at once that displacement speeds (vectors) are much higher in the eastern part of the Mediterranean than in the western part (Figure 2). In the eastern Mediterranean, the speeds are between 1 and 3 cm a year. To clarify matters, in Europe and the western Mediterranean we are below one centimeter a year and even, in many places, below 5 mm a year in some cases; this is the great plate convergence.

Figure 2.

These speeds continue to be measured with much greater accuracy. Here, for example, is the work done by Jean-Mathieu Nocquet at Nice, with continuous GPSs (Figure 3). As you can see, we find much the same mechanism: yellow arrows that are very big in all the eastern part and smaller in the western part, with highly variable directions. The difficulties one comes up against at the present time are linked to the fact that Europe is not even rigid, and that a good part of northern Europe, where one would like to put reference stations, suffer the consequences of post-glacial rebound. So uncertainties remain there, typically of the order of one millimetre. In the past, the Mediterranean was the site of extreme catastrophes, of which we have not had the equivalent in the instrumental period. Ever since the seismometer was invented in 1892, there has not been a magnitude-8 earthquake in the Mediterranean. We know that they probably occurred in the past, particularly in the Aergean arc, in Crete or in Rhodes, though these magnitudes are only estimates and we still don’t know the exact size of these earthquakes.

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Figure 3. Geodetic velocity field analysis

Some of the earthquakes mentioned on this simplified map (Figure 4) were accompanied by tsunamis. The faults are in part submarine, and the entire Mediterranean coastline is liable to devastation by tsunamis. Once again, the risks are very different in the western and the eastern parts of the Mediterranean. For instance, the earthquake that occurred in the region of Algiers in May 2003 caused a modest tsunami, which nevertheless hit the Balearic Islands with a two-meter-high wave in the port of Palma in Majorca that was very clearly recorded by the marigraphs. One of the problems is that, as the Mediterranean basin is narrow, tsunamis hit the opposite coasts very quickly, and we really need to think of extremely rapid solutions. Accélération du sol Probabililé 10% 50 ans

Run up de tsunami Probabilité 10% 50 ans

Figure 4.

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The greatest tsunami in Mediterranean history was probably the one accompanying the Cretan earthquake of 365 (Figure 5), and the devastation was gigantic. You can read in texts from the period descriptions that are all but indistinguishable from those of Sumatra. The earthquake affected the entire Hellenic basin of its day, wreaking extreme devastation in Alexandria and Sicily. This earthquake has not been reproduced since, and there you have a big question-mark. Crete 365 M=8.5 ? Crete 3 cm/yr

> 10 m Figure 5.

We know something else about Mediterranean earthquakes. There are two or three examples of seismic sequences that are triggered off in series; certain earthquakes, that is to say, trigger off others. I will begin with an example that is well known today, that of the Calabrian earthquakes of 1783 when, in the space of three days, between 5 and 7 February, three earthquakes affected southern Calabria at the foot of the Aspromonte, followed, less than a month later, and again a few weeks later, by two further earthquakes. It’s clear that these earthquakes trigger each other off. We don’t know exactly what determines the time-lapse separating the first earthquake from the second, third, fourth, fifth—it’s one of the big questions that remain to be solved—but we understand how concentrations of stresses engendered by the break on a fault trigger the breaks on the other faults.

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Figure 6. Evolution of the Coulomb stresses during the different earthquakes which affected southern Calabria in 1783 and subsequent earthquakes in the region

You can see in white (Figure 6 on previous page) the faults that have ruptured during the first earthquake in (a). In (b), you can see the concentrations of stresses on the adjacent faults, which break up in turn on the 6th and 7th of February—they become white. You will note that in the wake of this sequence in 1783, there is an enormous lobe of concentrations of stresses of red Coulomb to the south in the straits of Messina. Needless to say, this lobe of concentrations of stresses is doubtless responsible for the earthquake that occurred in Messina in 1908, and which rendered pratically connected all the breaks along what I call the Siculo-Calabrian rift between Catania and Catanzaro, since in 1693 there had been another earthquake which had claimed 40,000 victims in Catania.

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Once again, sequences of this type allow us to identify regions which are more dangerous than others for the future. The best-known example is the North-Anatolian fault. Another example is the twentieth-century sequence (Figure 7) that ruptured the entire North-Anatolian fault from east to west, revealing a slip deficit, a seismic gap, today, in the sea of Marmara. It follows another sequence, in the seventeenth century, which had also ruptured the entire fault.

Figure 7. The XXth century earthquake sequence

How, today, can we go further, how can we clarify and fine-tune these scenarios? As you will see, there are very important and very simple things to be done, which, in general, are not done. You have to know exactly where the faults lie, and you have to know which segments of the fault are the ones that break in this or that earthquake. Then we hope, gradually, to gain a better understanding of the return time for these earthquakes that occur pseudo-periodically on many faults. I shall begin with the sea of Marmara (Figure 8). The two earthquakes at Izmit in 1999 ruptured in total 180 kilometers of North-Anatolian fault. Before these earthquakes, no-one knew locally, near Izmit, where the fault ran. Here is the very famous photo (Figure 9) of a brand-new group of buildings, uninhabited at the time of the earthquake, and, as you can see, the fault runs through the group of buildings, and even through a building whose surrounding walls it has displaced by four meters. No property developer would ever have built a group of buildings like this had he known where the fault passed; but he didn’t know. This is the case in many places in the world: we don’t know exactly, to the nearest meter, where the active faults pass, including the best-known of these—for example, we don’t know exactly where the San Andreas fault passes. So there remain spots that are highly critical.

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The Fault Map

Armijo et al., Terra Nova, 2002

On the two sides of the pull-apart: strike-slip M 7.4 earthquakes in 1912 and 1999

Figure 8.

Figure 9.

The Izmit earthquake in 1999 broke the eastern branch of the Anatolian fault which arrives to the east of the sea of Marmara. In 1912, another earthquake had occurred at the western tip of this sea. So there is a gap between the two. The detailed cartographical work carried out by Rolando Armijo and his Turkish and French colleagues has significantly advanced matters. We now have the geometry of the active faults, which is a bit complicated, with very high resolution. We can go and inspect the ocean floor and identify the scarps created by the latest earthquake, which are between one and two meters high (Figure 10). We are able to see these scarps with the aid of remote-control robot technology on the ocean floor, and we can even see the direction

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of the slip. What is important is that we now have at our disposal a very precise cartography of a very recent scarp that can be linked to the earthquake of 1912 (Figure 11). Consequently, the size of the seismic gap that exists in the sea of Marmara is reduced, and, instead of imagining the possibility or idea of an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or more that would break all that was broken in the seventeenth century, there remains, it would seem, only 70 kilometers to be broken, that is, a much smaller earthquake. Furthermore, if we imagine that it is the breaks caused by the last earthquake in 1999 that will trigger off and guide the nucleation of the next earthquake, the propagation will mainly occur along the linear fault in a westward direction, a long way therefore from Istanbul, and the effects may in reality be less devastating. last event scarp is 1-2 m high

500 m Superposing hi-res multibeam bathymetry (Seabat 8101 carried by ROV VICTOR: resolution 50cm, precision 10cm) Figure 10.

Here is another example of what can be done, in another region of the eastern Mediterranean, in the Lebanon. The region has seen several large earthquakes in the past: in 1202, a well-known earthquake occurred at the beginning of the Second Crusade, devastating all the castles of the Crusaders. There were others in 1157 and 1170. In 551, a little under 1,500 years ago, an earthquake and a tidal wave devastated Berythe, the ancestor of Beirut, which was ravaged and destroyed and unable to rise from its ashes before the eighteenth century. Once again, in the instrumental period there is virtually nothing: the fault is silent.

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Figure 11.

The Levant fault splits into several branches in the Lebanon area. It does what is called a transpressive bend, which creates the reliefs of Mount Lebanon (Figure 12). We have studied the main branch of the Levant fault, the Yammouneh fault, with the aid of trenches in lacustrian deposits that provide detailed records of seismic events. These are annual deposits, making it possible to identify the dislocations one after the other in fine detail. The deposits can be dated. On the cartography (Figure 13)—it is almost archaeology we are engaged in here—each small black line corresponding to the seismic rupture which arrives at the surface is sealed by a deposit which is not faulted. The tips near the top of these small black lines give us the seismic events, that we are able to date, so that we can reconstruct, over a period of nearly 10,000 years, a history of the region’s paleoseismicity (Figure 14). The blue squares correspond to the dates obtained by carbon-14 analysis, and the red bars are the seismic events. We have some fifteen earthquakes in a little under 14,000 years. The uncertainties are great; the timelapses separating these earthquakes from each other are of the order of 1,000 years and are not necessarily regular. There seems to be a recent acceleration, with return times that are more of the order of 600 years for the last three events.

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Figure 12.

Figure 13.

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Figure 14.

On the middle line (Figure 15), which concerns the Yammouneh fault, we note that the last earthquake occurred in 1202, 803 years ago, that there appear to have been other earthquakes there before, at roughly 600- to 800-year intervals, and that the earthquakes that ruptured the fault from north to south between 1033 and 1202 appear to form a sequence. So we now have a much better idea of the behaviour of faults in that region. The earthquakes of 1759 did not occur on the Yammouneh fault. We are looking at a case where the fault has not moved for 800 years. As this is the approximate return time for large earthquakes, the earthquake is due any day now.

Figure 15. Comparison of the adjacent segments of the Levant fault

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The earthquake of 551 did not occur on these two faults on land; it took place at sea on a fault that has now been properly identified and which separates the town of Tripoli in two. You can see in the middle of the town of Tripoli a 70-meter-high step on a set of stairs, with the upper town and the lower town: it was probably the fault that caused this in 551. The fault is out at sea to the west of Tripoli. There are extraordinary signs of the uplift of shores and beaches along the Lebanese coast just to the south of Beirut. You can see platforms of marine abrasions that are also breeding grounds for small organisms called vermetidae—they are not corals but look a bit like them—with several levels of platforms that have been displaced. Here is an example of one at Tabarja (Figure 16) with the current platier covered with seaweed at the intertidal limit (between tides), and a sort of small, beige reef already karstified and eroded, 40 centimeters above the platier full of seaweed, that we think corresponds to the brutal and instantaneous uplift of the coast at the moment of the earthquake in 551. There are, moreover, carbon-14 datings for dead vermetidae that fit with this hypothesis, which however has not yet been proved.

Figure 16.

The fault is out at sea, of course, and causes the coast to thrust up. It’s situated at a depth of 1,700 meters, which makes the altitude of Mount Lebanon above the plutonic plain of the Levantine basin more or less the same as that of Mont Blanc (3,100 meters + 1,700 meters = 4,800 meters altitude)—“Lubnân”, moreover, means “white mountain” in Arameic. There is a folded piedmont plain beneath the sea, where we have identified active faults. So there is a genuine foreland there, of a kind usually found in other mountain chains in central Asia or elsewhere, but which in this case is submarine. The post-Messinian turbidites are folded, the Messinian salt is likewise folded. There are reverse faults, some of which are blind, others on the surface. Some of them provoke back extension on the frontal fold, and in some places these faults are on the surface. A preliminary document shows a scarp of very recent date on the sea-bed

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identified by SAR which might be the rupture caused by the earthquake in 551. We know very little else, it’s a lead. We don’t know if this devastating earthquake recurs every 2,000 or every 3,000 years. The return time is certainly more than 1,500 years, since there has been no equivalent since 551. Nor do we know if this fault breaks up in one go between Tripoli and Saïda, or if it is segmented. These are crucial problems for understanding future scenarios better. There are many problems of this type in the Mediterranean which are still not understood. We don’t know the faults of the Mediterranean world well enough. We don’t know their personalities, their way of functioning. I will give an example nearer to Casablanca to conclude this paper. You know that in March 2004, there was an earthquake in Al-Hoceima, which followed on from another earthquake that had taken place ten years earlier. There is a brutal change between the tectonics of Algeria in the main, which is dominated by thrust faults and linear compression—that is, the processes that make mountain chains—and the tectonics of the sea of Alboran further east, where you mainly see earthquake mechanisms with normal and transverse faults (Figure 17).

Figure 17. Plate boundary in the Western Mediterranean

At Al-Hoceima, what stands out on satellite images and on the ground is a northsouth valley which corresponds moreover to the Nekor delta, a sink trench bounded by higher regions (photo). This valley is bounded by what are called normal faults—this has been known for some time now—that thrust up the sea-shores to either side of the Nekor trench. These are not the erosion platforms of Lebanon, but almost; there are marines terraces which emerge from the sea, and you see abrasion terraces that have risen quite high; all of these terraces are undated for the moment. The fluvial terraces of the Riss have likewise been displaced, they are perched at present. On the slopes can be found small alluvial cones that have been displaced by several meters; they have not been dated. All are normal faults, faults, that is, with a predominantly vertical thrust. The mechanisms of the earthquakes that occurred in 1994 and 2004, however, have nothing in common with normal mechanisms. On top of this, though they are magnitude-6 earthquakes, there is no breaking of the surface. So the faults we consider to be active in quaternary morphology haven’t moved at all during these earthquakes.

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It’s the faults in the basement deeper down that don’t come to the surface that move, with a different mechanism. Clearly, we have a major problem here, no doubt linked to what happens in the north, in the sea of Alboran, since these faults continue at sea, and the problem has not been solved. Moreover, in the western Mediterranean we don’t even have a first-class model of the deformation. That’s partly because the movements are slow, but there’s a very large number of things we don’t understand. See, for example (Figure 17), how the GPS vectors measured between Sicily and Calabria turn through almost 60°, which is not predicted by an existing model. Perhaps this reflects the current extension of the Siculo-Calabrian rift that opens the straits of Messina. André Gutscher will talk about what’s happening in the Betico-Rifan arc and the possibility that the Lisbon earthquake was caused by easterly subduction beneath the Betico-Rifan arc; but here, too, we have big problems: we don’t really know what is part of Africa, none of these matters have been solved yet. The very movement of Africa is not very well understood at the present time. You have the NUVEL1 pole, the Giovanni Sella pole, the McClusky pole and yet another pole (Figure 18). These poles wander about, in a European context, over a zone almost 4,000 kilometers in length. It’s Eulerian kinematics on the sphere. Any plate movement in relation to another is a rotation, and the pole is the place where the axis of rotation intersects the surface of the sphere.

Figure 18.

You can see that, on a large scale, there is still a lot to be done. Kinematics deserves to be much better understood. To achieve this, we have, at the present time, a marvellous instrument, the continuous GPS. It’s clear that we need stations,—if possible, in the most stable points on the continents—which for the time being don’t exist in Africa, for example.

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We also need to make a big effort in the identification and cartography of faults, identifying the segments that caused the disasters of the past. This is paleoseismology, which is still in its early days. There are, of course, in Italy, and Turkey, teams who are busying themselves with this. In the Middle East, we have begun, as have our colleagues from Strasbourg. All this is still not done on an adequate scale, it requires time and funding. Several years are needed to reach conclusions on a given segment of fault. Dating techniques progress each year. Last but not least, of course, we need to develop the seismic networks, but the hope of witnessing a seismic disaster as it occurs can only be materialised by combining all these techniques and, above all, by talking together so that we can apply them in a concerted manner. Discussion R. Klapisch — Is it possible to have a precise cartography of faults and provide funding for it? P. Tapponnier — That’s quite true, and it might seem the ABC, but, even so, to have a precise cartography of the sea-beds of Marmara, the events of 1999 were needed. The funds needed to do it could never have been raised had there not been those events. It may well be that similar events will be needed. R. Klapisch — You had the Indian ocean all the same. P. Tapponnier — Yes, but you know, numerous projects for campaigns at sea have been submitted that have not been financed. Y. Lancelot — Just one remark: for a very long time, field geology was the only way in which faults were observed, then, all of a sudden, geophysics got the upper hand and people said to themselves that, thanks to the extremely accurate measurements provided directly by seismic networks, the problem would be solved. I think Paul Tapponnier is rehabilitating the hair-fine observations of geomorphology, a discipline that was considered completely outmoded, and one can see very clearly that the prerequiste for this is the field work that has yet to be done, particularly in North Africa—and that is where North-South cooperations can be important. P. Tapponnier — You can’t do one without the other. If you hunt an animal without knowing what the animal’s head looks like, you can run as much as you want, it’ll hide behind the trees and you won’t see it. Y. Lancelot — I’d like to let the audience ask some questions, because Paul Tapponnier has to leave at 4 pm and won’t be present, therefore, for the discussion. A participant — You didn’t explain Agadir. P. Tapponnier — I chose a few examples out of fifty. In particular, I didn’t talk about Lisbon, since André Gutscher is going to speak about it. The earthquake at Agadir claimed many more lives than it ought to have done because it was a superficial earthquake situated exactly beneath the populated region of Agadir; but it was a small

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earthquake, magnitude 5.6 or thereabouts. We know today, thanks to work done by Meghraoui and his colleagues, that this earthquake occurred on a reverse fault that thrust up the southern Atlas. There are reverse faults, what’s more, in much of the southern Atlas, and there are also marine terraces that are folded, arched, to the north of Agadir, along the coast. A participant — I’d like to thank you for your paper. I have a question of a geological nature. We’re accustomed to seeing earthquakes spread out along the limits of plates, yet, on one of your slides, we see that there’s a slightly oblique seismicity on the Africa/Europe edge, which traverses the sea of Alboran. You have said, moreover, that it’s a slightly complicated zone. There’s a completely oblique, more or less NorthEast/South-West orientation on the Africa/Europe edge, and I saw it in a somewhat trans-Mediterranean perspective where there’s a thermic anomaly which follows to some extent that line of seismicity. How is that obliqueness to be explained? P. Tapponnier — You’ve seen that very crude sketch where there’s a big red line starting from Greece, which rims the Adriatic and then runs all along the coast of the Maghreb as far as Gibraltar and beyond. That red line is a view of the mind. We have to be very careful in the western Mediterranean, for we still have difficulty—this is one of our great problems—identifying the limits of blocks. For a long time, moreover, we said to ourselves that all this was what is known as intra-plate deformation—that is to say, there are faults that come into play, but there aren’t really boundaries for plates. So that’s where we are today. If I and others wish to isolate, for example, an “Alboran” block, the so-called Alboran fault that starts at Al Hoceima or thereabouts and then joins the Almeria fault in Spain, it would constitute a boundary between blocks, but you would need to add that block to the overall scheme, and it’s a block bounded by Africa and Spain. Spain itself, moreover, is a block separated from France by the Pyrenees, which are an active zone—in France, as you know, there’s a rift that’s not the site of the most violent volcanic eruptions at the moment, but which has been in the past and is, at any rate, seismic. So we’re in an area of relatively mild deformation, mid-way between plate tectonics as we know it and intra-plate deformation.

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Volcanic Risk around the Mediterranean 53 Franco BARBERI University of Rome 3 Abstract. The risks posed by volcanoes are generally less significant than those posed by earthquakes, but they must be studied carefully to prevent their effect: lava flow, pyroclastic flows in explosive eruptions, lahars or mud flows if ice and snow cover the top of the volcano, fall-out of ashes and tsunamis. The case of Vesuvius is examined in more details, as this is the one presenting the highest level of risks in the world.

The previous paper has just shown to us that the Mediterranean was subject to frequent earthquakes. The risk posed by volcanoes is generally less significant than that posed by earthquakes, but from time to time, volcanoes do erupt and, depending on the place and the density of the inhabitants, can provoke sizeable disasters. I am going to accompany you on a small voyage round the world of volcanic risk, at the end of which I shall speak about the volcano that presents the highest level of risk in the world: Vesuvius, in Italy. The best-known phenomenon is lava flow, that is, the advance of a hightemperature liquid composed of molten rock: the magma. These lava flows are not very dangerous, apart from one or two exceptional cases such as that of the Nyiragongo volcano in Africa, for example, which, because of the high fluidity of its magma, can produce flows that advance at up to 70–80 km/hour and have therefore caused deaths. Normally, the speed of a lava flow is not great enough to claim victims. The cooling of the flow as it advances increases its viscosity, so the speed of the flow diminishes and there is normally time to save people. The material destruction, on the other hand, cannot be prevented, and lava flows can cause considerable damage. We have learned to control outflows, particularly in the case of Etna, which is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, with continuous eruptions almost every year, and whose activities mainly consist of lava flows. Two basic techniques have been learned: − The first technique, shown in these two photos (Figure 1), is diverting a flow by intervening close to the mouth of the eruption, where the magma emerges from the volcano: an artificial channel is installed, then, with the aid of explosives, the lava is rerouted into this artificial channel. Lava is not a Newtonian fluid but a fluid with unusual physical properties, known as a Bingham fluid: the acceleration of gravity is not sufficient to make it move, and if you manage to interrupt the lava flow near the mouth, it ceases. On Etna, this technique has 53

Transcription from oral in French and translation.

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already been successfully applied twice, and we have managed to protect villages in this way.

Figure 1. The control of lava flows. Significant progress achieved at Mt. Etna in the last 20 years. Left: Diversion of the flow into an artificial channel by blasting its levee near the eruptive vent. Right: Deprived of back-thrust, the natural flow front stops. A new flow originates from the diversion site

− The second technique (Figure 2) consists of building dams of earth at the front of the flow with a definite direction, and yields good results. On the left, you can see a transverse dam at the front of the flow which delayed the advance of the lava by a month. On the right, you can see dams built in the direction of the flow, which succeeded perfectly in diverting it in order to protect the buildings you see on the other side of the dam.

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Figure 2. The control of lava flows. Earthern barriers orthogonal or transversal to the flow advancement direction. Left: 1991-92: lava advancement delayed for one month. Right: 2001: lava diverted toward less destructive paths.

We have learned certain techniques, then, to protect ourselves from lava flows. The real problem posed by volcanic eruptions is when the eruption is of an explosive nature. Unlike the lava flow, which is a continuous stream of liquid, what emerges from the volcano is a cloud of gas rich in fragments of magma. The energy varies greatly, and you can have clouds as high as 50 kms above the volcano or ejections several kilometers high. Much the most dangerous phenomenon in the explosive activity of volcanoes is the production of pyroclastic flows caused by the cloud’s gravitational collapse. These flows advance at a speed that in some cases exceeds 5 kms/hour. They have enormous dynamic pressure and a very high temperature, and because of this an almost total destructive power. Here you see a photo (Figure 3A) of the town of Saint-Pierre in Martinique, almost entirely destroyed in 1902 by a pyroclastic flow, and you can see the form this flow takes when it advances: a cloud of gas laden with pyroclastic fragments (Figure 3C).

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Figure 3. Explosive eruptions. High energy emission of fragmented magma and gas: by far the most destructive. Major disasters produced by:pyroclastic flows, e.g. Mt. Pelée, Martinique, 1902: 29,000 victims

Another very grave danger associated with volcanic activity is mudflow (Figure 4). Several mechanisms can cause mudlows. If there is a layer of ice or permanent glacial snow on the volcano, the eruption can bring about their fusion, and a large quantity of water rushes down the mountainside, causing a flood capable of causing enormous damage. The last example of this, a particularly terrible and catastrophic one, was the Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia (South America), which claimed 25,000 victims in 1985. If there is a lake in the crater of the volcano, the eruption may empty the lake, with, once again, an emission of vast quantities of water that produce very dangerous mudflows. There is a famous example of this in Indonesia, but there is also a risk of this type near Rome, with the Colli Albani volcano (in the Alban Hills) and the lake of Castel Gandolfo—where the pope has his summer residence. It was recently discovered to be an active volcano that had erupted and produced mudflows several times up to the Roman era. The Romans, in the fourth century B.C., dug a tunnel to keep down the level of the lake, thus performing what I believe was the first prevention measure ever taken in the world.

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Pinatubo, 1992 Figure 4. Lahars (mud flows): by melting of snow & ice cover, e.g. Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, 1985: 25,000 victims; by flooding from crater lakes, e.g. Kelut, Indonesia, 1915: 5110 victims; by rain mobilization of loose tephra on steep slopes, e.g. Vesuvius, Italy 1631: 3000 victims (also by p.f.).

Even more frequent is the sweeping along by rain of ashes deposited during an explosive eruption. Explosive eruptions are always accompanied by torrential rainfall, on account of the enormous quantity of water vapour which is ejected upwards over the volcano. There are also ashes that bring down the aggregate of the air’s humidity, so there are always heavy rains. Rain sweeps up the loose ashes that have been deposited on the slopes of the volcano, and even on rugged surfaces remote from the volcano, causing these phenomena. You also have tsunamis that are linked to volcanic eruptions and are not of seismic origin. The causes of these tsunamis are basically of two types: a tsunami can be caused by the entry into the sea of an enormous volume of pyroclastic mudflow; the other possibility is a collapse, say, at the end of a large explosive eruption: an example of this is Santorini in the Mediterranean, to which the destruction of Minoan civilisation is uncertainly attributed, but many other examples exist. Here is a photo (Figure 5) of the island of Stromboli, in southern Italy, where, on 30 December 2002, there was a land-slip, part of it underwater, which provoked a tsunami with a wave 11 meters high. Had it happened in the month of August, the number of victims would have run into the thousands.

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Stromboli, 2002 Figure 5. Tsunami: by flank collapse or caldera collapse of volcanic islands; by entrance into the sea of huge volumes of pyroclastic flows. e.g. Santorini, Greece ~1500 b.C.: destruction of Minoan civilization; Tambora, Indonesia, 1815: 10,000 victims (also by p.f.); Krakatau, Indonesia, 1883: 36,000 victims.

The last phenomenon is the fall-out of ashes or fragmentary pyroclastic material. If these accumulate to the point where they exceed the resistance of roofs, the latter collapse. There is also, near the volcano, the ejection of very large blocks, with the damage directly occasioned by this. These are the phenomena that can occur. This chart (Figure 6) indicates active volcanoes in the Mediterranean. They are mainly found in two zones: southern Italy, which has the most famous volcanoes in the world, since the classification of types of eruption comes from Italian volcanoes: Etna, Vulcano, Stromboli, Vesuvius, the Phlegraean fields, etc.; and the Aegean arc in Greece, where there are also active volcanoes, the most important of which are Santorini and Nysiros. Paul Tapponnier has just mentioned likewise the posibility that certain areas of France and Germany may yet produce volcanic eruptions.

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Figure 6. Volcanic risk in the Mediterranean. Two main areas of active volcanism: Southern Italy (Etna, Vulcano, Stromboli, Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, etc.) and Aegean Island Arc, Greece (Santorini, Nysiros, etc.). Very large areas can be devastated outside the volcano by tsunami and downwind pyroclastic fallout.

I would remind you that, in addition to the zone around the volcano that can be totally devastated, tsunamis and even fall-out from the ashes carried by the wind can affect much larger areas than the volcano itself. A number of things can be done to limit the risk. The first is to anticipate the moment an earthquake will begin. We are in a position to understand, to some extent, that a volcano is about to erupt again. We must put together an emergency plan, therefore, and be able to follow the event up to the moment when the probability of an eruption becomes very high. We must know what to do to save people, and, to be perfectly honest, the only method is to evacuate people from the area. I am going to set out a few risk measures to adopt for Vesuvius. I am going to talk about Vesuivius, not just because I am Italian and have studied it, but because it is the volcano which presents the highest level of risk in the world. The risk obviously depends on the type of eruption the volcano is able to produce: here, explosive eruptions of considerable energy. But the risk in this case is mainly a result of the almost continual urban growth around the volcano, with an increase in the number of homes which have begun to rise towards the crater (Figure 7). The density of inhabitants would pose problems even in a zone with no seismic or volcanic risk. In some areas near the coast, there are small ports where the concentration of inhabitants per square kilometer is surpassed only by that of Hong-Kong.

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Figure 7. Vesuvius. Because of the explosive character of the expected eruption and the high density of population in hazardous zones, Vesuvius has the highest volcanic risk in the world

The first thing to do when you have to decide the level of risk and what to do is to evaluate the type of eruption that the volcano is able to produce. Now, a volcano like Vesuvius has known different types of eruption in its history. It has had periods of “open behaviour” when activity was persistent, with very frequent eruptions, as is the case with Etna at the moment. The level of explosiveness was on the low side: 3 on the scale of volcanic explosiveness used by volcanologists, which rises as high as 6 to 7, with only small eruptions of magma. This type of activity lasted three centuries and ended in 1944. Since 1944, that is, sixty-one years ago, Vesuvius has been dormant. These dormant periods in the history of the volcano can last centuries, if not thousands of years, but when they are interrupted, it is always by a very violent, high-energy eruption, called Plinian or sub-Plinian. For 60 years, we have been in one of these periods, which is about to be interrupted, we don’t know when, by an eruption that will certainly be dangerous. The classic example is the famous Plinian eruption of 79 A.D., but there have been slightly less violent eruptions of this type, and you can see in this picture (Figure 8) the last of these, which dates back to 1631. The dormant periods have lasted as long as 1,000 years in one case, and at the very least 500 years, so they are very long.

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Figure 8. Eruptions marking the conduit re-opening after repose periods of variable duration are explosive, of variable intensity, usually with a main plinian (79 A.D.) or subplinian (472 and 1631) phase (sustained and then collapsing column) and initial and late phreatomagmatic phases. Subplinian VEI=4, Vol.=0.1-0.5 km3; Plinian VEI=5, Vol.=0.5-5 km3.

In the event of a renewal of eruptive activity in, say, the next ten years, an explosive eruption of a slightly lower eneregy level than the Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption can be expected, but, at all events, of a fairly high level. Very briefly, here is the scenario, with charts of the different risks. Here is the chart for the fall-out of ashes (Figure 9), which obviously depends on which way the winds are blowing, in this case nearly always East/North-East, East/South-East. The yellow curve, which is the one chosen by the emergency plan, corresponds to a quantity of ash superior to 300 kg per square meter, and you can see from the table that, with ash loads of this order on them, some 20% of roofs will collapse.

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Figure 9. The expected hazards: 1) Tephra fallout

Pyroclastic flows are obviously the most dangerous. By combining a whole series of field studies of the spread of deposits of pyroclastic flows from previous eruptions, and digital simulation, with the aid of physico-digital modelling of eruptions of this type, we are able, after factoring in certain key parameters for the eruption, to estimate the distance that might eventually be covered. All these indicators ultimately lead to this red line, which marks off the zone where the probability of devastation by pyroclastic flows is high (Figure 10). Needless to say, the segmentation is an administrative boundary, marking off the communes around Vesuvius.

Figure 10. The expected hazards: 2) Pyroclastic flows. Red zone = area exposed to p.f. hazard.

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Here (Figure 11), on the right, is an example of digital simulation of pyroclastic flow. The first picture corresponds to 20 seconds after the cloud formation which will generate the pyroclastic flow, and the last picture to 300 seconds or 5 minutes. As you can see, the entire volcano all the way down to the sea is totally affected by the pyroclastic flows in the space of 5 minutes. They are very fast-moving phenomena, then. The whole zone around the volcano will be overrun, devastated and destroyed by the pyroclastic flows in a few minutes after the formation of the phenomenon. This obviously leaves no time to make the population safe once the eruption has begun. To save people, therefore, they must all be evacuated from the zone exposed to the risk before the eruption has begun.

Figure 11. The expected hazards: 2) Pyroclastic flows. Column collapse scenarios obtained by numerical simulation contribute to identify the Red Zone. In a few minutes after column collapse the Red Zone will be devastated. Population living within it must be evacuated before the eruption onset.

Another serious problem is the risk of mudflows. You can see here, on another chart (Figure 12), that the problem is clearly situated on the volcanic edifice, on the cone of Vesuvius; but it doesn’t matter, since this is the same zone that will be affected by the pyroclastic flows. You cannot die twice, so only one of these problems needs to be dealt with. But you can see that, given the special direction of the wind in the area of Vesuvius, even people some distance away will be in the danger zone: accumulations of ash, swept along by rain, can generate mudflows even in zones at some distance from the volcano. These people must also be dealt with and saved.

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Figure 12. The expected hazards: 3) Lahar (mud flows). Zones exposed to lahar hazard are the volcanic edifice (same zone exposed to p.f.) and all downwind steep slopes interested by tephra fallout

The results are the following. Three zones are defined: − in the red zone, the zone exposed to the risk of pyroclastic flows, 551,000 people are currently living, that is, more than half a million people, all of whom have to be evacuated before the eruption begins; − in the yellow zone, the zone exposed to the risk of fall-outs of ash, more than a million people live. Only a fraction of these people (100,000 to 150,000) will be concerned, depending on the direction of the wind. They don’t need to be evacuated beforehand, for there is no immediate danger—what’s more, it couldn’t be done, since nobody can know exactly what direction the wind will be blowing in at the moment of the eruption. They will have to be evacuated at the start of the eruption, when the direction of the wind is known; − last but not least, in the blue zone, the zone exposed to the risk of mudflows and even alluvions, 181,000 people live. Between 20% and 40% of the inhabitants may be affected, depending on the direction of the wind. More than 500,000 people to evacuate before the beginning of the eruption… What is to be done? Where can they be put? How can they be taken care of? The emergency plan for Vesuvius (Figure 13) provides for what is called a twinning chart between the different regions of Italy and the different cities, towns and communes situated around the volcano. Each region has to take charge of one of these towns. For example, Tuscany, the region I come from, has to take charge of the town of Ercolano, which numbers 60,000 inhabitants. The host region must look after everything: housing and food, but also schooling and all social questions. The aim of the plan is to maintain the unity of the administration which is to be evacuated, together with its administrators, teachers and

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doctors, in order to try and keep down, as much as possible, the number of difficulties you are faced with in a disaster of this kind. People living in the yellow zone (ash fall-out) and the blue zone (mudflows) will be evacuated after the start of the eruption and will be shared out in Campania itself.

Figure 13. The Vesuvius emergency plan. Residents of each municipality of the Red Zone will be transferred in one Italian Region and hosted so to maintain as far as possible their links (administration, school, health care). A twinning agreement has been signed by all Regions and the National Government. Drilling exercises are regularly carried out involving 1000-2000 students and their families in order to improve links with the hosting communities. People evacuated from the Yellow and Blue Zones will be hosted in Campania Region.

We are able, to some extent, to anticipate the eruption, or at least to realise that the volcano is beginning to change. In a case like Vesuvius, we are dealing with a crater with a narrow throat and, at a certain depth, the magma. Studies of seismic thermographics have been made, for example, which have sought to establish at what depth the magma is to be found. At all events, before the eruption, this magma has to make a journey to the surface, and the eruption begins when it has reached the surface. This journey is accompanied by a whole series of phenomena: earthquakes which produce fractures along which the magma rises; a pressure that builds up at depth with a highly characteristic deformation and upheaval of the soil, gases which leak out. Variations in the chemical and isotopic composition and fluctuations in heat are observed; the rising up of the magma, a substance that has a different density to rock, penetrates at a high temperature, modifiying all the earth’s physical fields: gravimetric, magnetic, electric. So if a volcano is monitored properly, if all these parameters are measured, we have a good chance of anticipating the eruption.

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The problem is, though, that you have 500,000 people to evacuate before the start of the eruption, and no room for error. If you make a decision too soon, evacuate millions of people and the eruption doesn’t occur, it will be an economic disaster. If, on the other hand, to avoid a false alarm, you wait too long, there is a risk that the eruption will begin while there are still people in the danger zones. It really is a very difficult problem to handle. By way of conclusion, in seismic zones—or in most seismic zones, at least—if you are right on top of the fault, as Paul Tapponnier has shown in certain photos, you can try to protect yourself by putting up seismo-resistant buildings. But for some volcanic phenomena there is really nothing to be done. Buildings that can withstand pyroclastic flows, at a reasonable cost, have not yet been invented. The only way to reduce the risk where Vesuvius is concerned is to lower the density of the population who live in danger zones. A few years ago, the region of Campania launched a very important programme, with an investment of more than 700 million euros, the aim of which is to lower by at least 35,000 the number of residents in the red zone. There are a whole series of aids allocated to families to enable them to buy a house outside the danger zone; there are also public housing programmes aimed at less affluent populations, again outside the zone at risk. There is also a commitment, which didn’t exist before, to combatting improper constructions. I think that some good will come from the fact that, ever since the plan was approved, there has been a great deal of discussion among civil servants and others. Until very recently, nobody wanted to hear about the risk posed by Vesuvius; but now that Vesuvius is an active volcano with a high level of risk, it has entered popular consciousness. This awareness of the risk is an achievement in itself. Y. Lancelot — The fact that Italy has managed to make a considerable effort, particularly with regard to building and evacuation plans, is quite remarkable when one thinks of the housing pressures in the countries of southern Europe, especially in Italy. One can’t help comparing this with what has happened in Louisiana and Alabama, etc. We see that risk exists because populations are settled in places they shouldn’t be settled in—they may not necessarily have any choice—and that the big problem is evacuation, with the extraordinary logistics it entails. And we see that if this preparation continues in Italy, they may succeed in reducing the number of victims. Unfortunately, I think there will be a lot of victims all the same. I am going to hand over now to Jean Virieux, who teaches at the University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis and has taken part in the first underwater seismic instrumentations off the French Riviera. You have seen the appalling hurricanes that have just occurred, and, above all, the incredible number of victims; you have seen the evacuation of Louisiana, where there was a highway completely blocked and where the opposite lane hadn’t been opened—I don’t know why—and so people were in an appalling situation. This clearly shows that it’s a problem for which it ought to be possible for norms of civil protection around the Mediterranean to be put in place. This applies both to earthquakes and volcanism. I think that Franco Barberi has clearly shown that, in the case of volcanism, we have a few days, perhaps two or three, in which to do the work; if people are warned at once, if they know there are plans, they will know where they stand.

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In the case of seismology, obviously an earthquake has very different effects, but here, too, we need to think about problems of evacuation and emergency aid, which for the moment are not necessarily the most highly developed. Volcanism also causes earthquakes: in Martinique, for example, we know that we will certainly have another earthquake in a short time, perhaps without a volcanic eruption, moreover, and special earthquake-resistant building construction, which costs 20% to 25% more than normal construction, is absolutely not applied. In the countries around the Mediterranean, particularly in North Africa, I don’t know if right now in the region of Al Asnam or the region of Al Hoceima earthquakeresistant building construction is strictly applied. At any rate, it’s a point that needs to be stressed, and if one has recommendations to make, it’s that there ought to be international commissions for the Mediterranean within the framework of EuroMediterranean programmes to oversee construction, since it is ultimately what causes the greatest damage.

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Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

Seismic Instrumentation54 Jean VIRIEUX University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis Abstract. Contrary to common thinking, earth is not under close surveillance, and even little is known on its internal behavior. To improve this situation, a massive observation system must be developed and organized in networks. Knowledge is not enough for risk prevention, training and education are of utmost importance to insure security and protection. Also adequate structures and coordination must be implemented at the adequate decision level.

My paper will bear, not on seismic instrumentation as a technique, but on the motives we have for observing the earth more closely. My scientific speciality is founded on interpretation and simulation, on analysing seismological signals, but since I am at Nice Sophia-Antipolis, I am making appeal for greater observation, and this is the meaning of the message that I shall try briefly to put across. A massive commitment to observation of environmental parameters is badly needed. I salute the political courage of Franco Barberi, who, in his time as a junior minister in Italy, took initiatives as a politician to ensure that the risk at Vesuvius was greatly reduced. It is the contribution both of a scientist, and of a man who has borne political responsibilities. The aim is to ensure that there is more education and training in the area of risk. Greater understanding and a better grasp of these huge natural phenomena is needed, so that we can guarantee protection and security through alarm systems. If, among these three points—education and training, research and understanding, security and protection—I had to select one as a priority, it is, of course, education and training I would say needs to be set in motion, since it is the most effective in reducing natural risks. I would like to stress the fact that the earth is not under close surveillance. I have often heard it said that scientists are pondering the problems attendant upon natural disasters, that the earth is under close surveillance; I would like to show and to illustrate that this is not the case at the present time. The two brilliant papers which came before have shown how uncertain, and at times ignorant, we are. I would like to seize this opportunity to show you that the western Mediterranean is the perfect setting for a demonstration of the feasibility of reducing natural risks, not only on account of the phenomena that occur there, but also because of the mix of very different cultures around the Mediterranean. Instrumental seismology is a young science. It was in 1889 that a signal observed in Potsdam in Germany was first correlated with an earthquake in Japan. And few 54

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people stress that it was thanks to modern means of communication that such a correlation was made between a relatively trivial phenomenon on a pendulum vibrating in Germany and a disaster that had been announced through communications media in Japan. The earth, then, was transparent to waves, which spread right across the earth and were not limited, as has been known since Antiquity, to the epicentre or source zone. This has enabled seismologists to make enormous strides in their knowledge of the earth. I would have you know, just the same, that at the turn of the twentieth century— Etienne Guyon has mentioned this—at a time when there were articles making sense of the infinitely small, when quantum physics was present in 1905—we didn’t know what the earth was made of, nor where the principle masses were to be found. The discovery of the solid core by Oldham in 1906 and of the inner seed by Ingrid Legman in 1936 can be credited to seismology. This shows that seismology likewise partakes of fundamental science. What do we mean by massive observation? There is always an alternative in our sciences: either we have a few well-connected, high-grade instruments that enable us to obtain information in what is virtually real time—typically, it’s a rather military approach to the problem, usually connected to nuclear explosions like the “Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty” in Vienna; or we have a massive spread, with no guarantees as to quality or reliability, leading in principle to redundancy, all this being bound up with the emergence of internet networks and what is called grid computing. To have an idea of the magnitude, you should know that the major American programmes for observing the North American continent, which should extend from west to east in what is called the “Bigfoot Experiment”, will last ten years and will deploy a mere 800 sensors across the continent, whereas in industry—in Saudi Arabia, for example—the number of recording channels used to oversee or explore an oil well is 300,000, that is, 100,000 detectors with three dimensional sensors. Seismological observation is now possible outside science laboratories, which, it has to be said, is a revolution for us. Cutting-edge physics can be practised in places no longer confined to the science lab, which gives us a certain humility as scientists. It is important, therefore, to prepare our society to be confronted with this data. What happens when people have observed from within or near their home an event they don’t understand and that in some cases can spark off scenes of panic? Imagine, for example, that out of 10,000 French lycées, 1,000 were equipped with environmental instruments (instruments for measuring the temperature, pressure or vibration of the earth, or the chemical content of the air). This is more instruments for measuring things than the grand American project USARRAY. How many French gendarmeries and hospitals might be equipped, to say nothing of individual initiatives like those seen in Japan at the moment, where you can buy, for something in the region of 10,000 euros, a seismograph which you set up in your living-room and which warns you about the forthcoming earthquake? This is not fiction, but a reality that’s dangerous to manipulate. Needless to say, this means a large amount of seismological data to handle. The flows per station are not enormous (100 Mo per day, per station), but with 10,000 instruments, you can see at once the volume of data to be handled. Real-time interpretation is possible, but requires structured companies with highly trained staff and the preservation of know-how over long periods of time to maintain and analyse that data.

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Finally, the data has to be disseminated, which means you need companies made up of educated people who understand the information that is to be disseminated. Seeing people on a beach taking photographs of a tsunami makes blatantly clear the lack of education in natural phenomena. To show how simple this is: a seismological sensor with three dimensional detection is a small cylindrical box linked to a dataacquisition station the size of a shoe-box, and this equipment can be installed in lycées, which don’t usually make use of their communication bands at night. The latter can therefore be used to transfer environmental parameters without penalising the children in their day-time communications. This leads on, of course, to the great motive of consciousness-raising and education. The EduSeis project (Educational Seismological Network) (Figure 1), together with various partnerships in Europe (Portugal, Germany, Italy and the Naples region, and south-east France), aims to make children—and, by extension, their parents—aware of this problem of natural risk. An illustration of this is given in those red lines of a recording of an earthquake in India, near the border with Pakistan, which was recorded in the region of Nice. This shows you that we can easily make goodquality scientific recordings in schools—I’ll leave out the interpretation side, but there is “scattering”, wave conversion that can, of course, be interpreted. As part of a European project, we are planning to install a station, in partnership with the Algerians, in the region of Boumerdès. If opportunities exist for our academic colleagues in Morocco, we would be extremely interested in collaborating there. EduSeis

Educational Seismological Network

http://aster.unice.fr

Figure 1.

The environment, then, is a social issue. To be a bit provocative with regard to the various disciplines—and I take the opportunity here to thank Yves Lancelot for his invitation to present this paper—climate warming is not the only problem on the planet, and there is not just one type of observation, the type made from satellites. People generally single out satellite observation, which has to exist, of course, and climate

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warming is likewise very important, but we should not overlook the other problems associated with different forms of natural risk. There are a great many actors involved, what with teachers, scientists, politicians and citizens. There are different possible courses of action, and, in the context of our present-day societies, we can certainly do better when it comes to education, prevention and management programmes. But care must be taken to define the different missions properly, and I sometimes have the impression that our society mixes up missions and people. The scientist should understand and inform, but cannot stand in for the line managers of risk alert, for the community in question does not have the critical size. To control impacts more effectively, we need a structured society in a transnational cooperative world. We have this pretty obvious triptych (Figure 2) for the strategy for reducing effects, consisting of assessment (which requires understanding), prevention (which enables measures to be put in place to reduce effects), and, last but not least, the warning system (which makes it possible to launch operations).

v Pré n tio en

IOC/UNESCO

Sy s tč me d’A ler te

From F; Schindelé, Coordinateur du PTWC

Evaluation de l’Aléa Figure 2. Strategy for reducing the effects: Evaluating. Preventing. Alarm

I am going to show you again the slide Paul Tapponnier presented to you earlier (Figure 3), with that famous red line which is just an interpretation—particularly in the western part, which is fairly speculative for want of marine data—to show you that, in the case of tsunamis, for instance, the Mediterranean region is clearly divided into at least three large basins: the Black Sea, the eastern part and the western part. This complicates our task when it comes to sounding the alarm, for the smaller the basin, the swifter must be the alarm. In the context of the western Mediterranean (Figure 4), some activities, particularly seismic ones, have triggered off tsunamis and should therefore enable us to take preventative measures. It’s difficult to explain to populations that nothing can be done in the space of an hour, if we have been warned by instruments that a tsunami is going to arrive, for example in Algeria, and will strike the French coast one hour later.

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Lisbonne 1755 M=8 ?

In Mediterranean Sea, tsunami risk exists. It has already been observed. Few historical events Alger 1365 M= 7?

Messine 1908 M=7 ?

Helike - 373 M=6.5-7

Crète 365 M=8.5 ?

Santorin -1650

Amorgos 1956 M=7.5

Rhodes 1303 M=8 ?

Figure 3.

Western Mediterranean Sea

Few felt Tsunamis on French Coasts • 1979 : felt between Nîmes and Menton, the airport dam construction induces a submarine landslide (11 casualties) • 1986 : after an earthquake, a 2 m tide has occured in Beauduc sea-shore.

1887

1891 2003

1856

? 1908

•2003 : Boumerdès Earthquake, 1,5 m in few places on French Coast (during the night). • 2004 : An anomalous tide occurs at Marseille (Beach of « Pointe Rouge »)

Figure 4.

This is something that can become operational, and we can identify an important social need simply by looking at the number of visits to internet sites, which show that the moment a major event occurs—such as those in Morocco mentioned earlier, and that in Sumatra as well—society asks questions. We must provide the populations concerned with that information. Whether we want to or not, it is our duty as scientists. We need, then, alarm systems that are multi-risk (Figure 5) and will enable us to reduce the effects of risks. A structure exists for this, and we can and must do it; we are not completely powerless in the face of natural risks.

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Network of sensors for different purposes Warning and Early warning of an event (real-time) Mitigation of disaster effects (high dynamic range) Understanding of disasters (broadband observation)  

Human capacities for running these networks (education/training) pyramidal structure national implication supranational management national/european competence Operational issues : decision making, information diffusion (national ?) Figure 5. Multi-hazard warning network

What kind of alarm system? We must build on what already exists. This map (Figure 6) shows the seismological stations connected in real time, and you will notice a more than major shortcoming: even though there’s a station in North Africa (in Morocco), this North/South collaboration will have to be consolidated so that observation stations of this kind can exist.

Rouge: Temps Réel Orange: 1-60 min Jaune: futur

PROJET MEREDIAN

Projet Européen Méditerranée Occidentale (EERWEM) Figure 6. The European project Meredian: building on what exists already

There is a hierarchical side, of course, to this prevention, and you can see (Figure 7) that an Atlantic structure is needed, in the North Sea, where asteroids have triggered off quite sizeable tsunamis in the past. And you also have to mention different parts of the Mediterranean.

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Multi-Hazard system GLOBAL FRAME

Different regional subnetworks (OMWC)

Global EuroMediterranean Network (EMWC)

Different sensors (vibration, pressure, sonic/infrasonic)

Figure 7. Warning system hierarchy

This ought to be, and can be, organised—the challenges, of course, are trickier to handle, because response times must be in the region of ten minutes for tsunamis— with an installation capacity that enables us, as always with these schematic red lines (Figure 8), to set up instruments, be they seismological stations, GPS systems, marigraphs or deep-sea sensors, to alert us to the risk of tsunamis.

Figure 8. OMWN/OMWC (time response 10 mn)

Response times for alarm systems are usually a few seconds for earthquakes—we will see an illustration of this with Naples—and a few minutes for tsunamis. Landslides are one of our huge preoccupations locally on the French Riviera, on account of the risk of a tsunami linked to a slide: you have seen a tsunami linked to an earthquake, and a tsunami linked to a volcano.

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We have to develop, then, more rapid response techniques for these tsunamis connected to landslides, and you have here, for example (Figure 9) the installing of deep-sea sensors in connection with the Antares project for detecting dark matter in cosmology. These problems have enabled us to have a junction-box, that you can see at the bottom of the slopes, which make it possible to have energy and ultimately to transmit data on the bottom of the ocean; a broad-band sensor has been installed, giving us access in real time, via Toulon and the CPPM, to data which is fed back to SophiaAntipolis.

  

Time Response < 2-4 mn Multi-risk analysis (landslide, earthquake, tsunami, other…) Automatic diffusion (trained people)

The ANTARES observatory, an example of modern technology: broadband seismic sensor in real-time, Guralp/GeoAzur, IFREMER/ANTARES Figure 9. Local tsunami warning system

Conclusion (0). Structures need to be set up. Mention was made this morning of initiatives in relation to water problems, associations that need to be set up. It’s obvious that we need organisms close to the fields that will enable us to preserve, assess and develop the environmental heritage. These are fairly simple messages, but they need to be put across, and we will see the example of the region of Campania in a moment. The targets are usually local, of the order of 20,000 km2 with ten-yearly time-scales. The initiatives needed are precise assessments that could make managing of the environment sustainable for our societies. Conclusion (1). The object, Earth, is seldom if ever observed. Putting a seismological sensor at the bottom of the sea is good, but there’s only one of them, and several are needed. Nevertheless, we know our societies are capable of taking action. Energy challenges, for example, have led to considerable resources being freed up for oil prospecting. One may recall that the military have deployed highly effective observation systems for motives other than the risk of earthquakes. The entire effort of

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twentieth-century seismology is founded, not on the analysis of earthquakes, but on nuclear explosions, detection and differentiation. Mention can also be made of food challenges: if we have such a highly advanced meteorology, it’s because we need to have good agriculture. I could also speak of health challenges or legal challenges— France spends a lot on the law. It is important our societies understand that they should also spend a lot on the security of goods and people. Unfortunately, current events in New Orleans show that there exists a misunderstanding in this respect. The growth of the world population makes our societies more vulnerable, so we need to mobilise the funds needed to reduce this vulnerability. Conclusion (2). the recommendation of UNESCO’s International Oceanic Commission has clearly shown that the Mediterranean is an area on which a certain number of efforts should be focused, notably to warn against tsunamis, but also against other natural risks. Placing it under the aegis of the INGV as an actor, a leader for these different initiatives, is a first step. Within this Euro-Mediterranean context, the western Mediterranean, with its well-defined countries and a measure of communication that is easier to develop and set in motion than in the eastern part (which poses far greater political problems, though natural phenomena there are just as powerful, if not more so) is an excellent testing-ground on which to try and show that it’s possible to reduce risks. The cultural diversity will be beneficial, but will not stand in the way of that demonstration. And as was mentioned with regard to agriculture yesterday by Vincent Dollé, the Latin Arc, for instance, which brings together a variety of regions, can serve as a crucible for initiatives of this kind.

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Discussion55 Y. Lancelot — It’s always difficult to engage in prevention with regard to something that may never happen—which always happens in the end, but may only happen in a hundred years time—you can’t convince the political classes to do it. Where climate change is concerned, it only became possible when there was a massive mobilisation, when the consequences were seen for the first time—consequences that start off slowly—when there was a motivation borne by the population itself. The political classes are then forced to react. As Jean Virieux has said, at the present time everything has to go through children’s education, then the universities. Educating people about the environment, which for a very long time was nothing more than an ecologist’s dream, has become one of the major challenges of the planet, for the planet is totally unique and everything on it is interrelated. A general education in the earth sciences must be taken in hand at once, therefore, because after climate change, there is agriculture, desertification, industry, the entire economy. The message to get across is indeed an enormous effort at the level of education. We have known years when the earth sciences as such went into a considerable decline, and we need to get back on our feet by having people like Jean Virieux who work on instrumentation, forecasting and seismic networks team up with people who work on climate—to reply to his “innuendo”! J. Virieux — It wasn’t an innuendo! Regarding climate, for example, you can have a modification of hydrologic systems with consequences for natural risks. It’s not polemics I enjoy, but rubbing minds together so as to sharpen up the arguments of each community, and I think there’s a very important interaction. I work on infrasounds in the atmosphere, so I have no difficulty seeing couplings between different natural media. R. Klapisch — We needn’t be too pessimistic, I think, about the repercussions that might or might not have something that may well not happen. But the fact that it has happened—like the tsunami, for example— and also the fact that there are earthquakes nearly everywhere in the Mediterranean, shows that it’s probably possible to call for more to be done at the level of instrumentation and alerts, on the one hand, and, on the other, as you quite rightly remark, education. It’s absolutely certain, as you said, that the people on television who found it very amusing to run towards the wave, had they known what a tsunami is, as all the Japanese people did, wouldn’t be dead. J. Virieux — It’s possible, thanks to information technology, to obtain goodquality measurements, in places other than research laboratories. This democratisation of scientific measurement is very important, then, for our sciences, and I think that, on the contrary, it’s a message of hope we need to bring. 55

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R. Klapisch — Precisely, and as we have been charged by NATO with putting forward recommendations for forecasting risks, and those risks in particular, I will ask you to draw up a list of concrete measures that make use of this excellent argument you have advanced and which could be one of the key results of this meeting. Y. Lancelot — An example everyone is familiar with would be to compare the number of victims in a large earthquake in Japan compared with the rest of the world. Education, buildings, safety plans have long been applied in that country, and all Japanese children know what to do in the event of an earthquake. They live with it. We do not. We know what happens with politicians: you will see how quickly we will forget the Indonesian tsunami and the hurricane in Louisiana. In fifteen years, if there are no more big hurricanes—but, in my opinion, there will be—it will be forgotten. So we must act now and establish norms. What is tragic about Louisiana is that buildings were allowed to be put up in areas that are completely liable to flooding, that a delta has been destroyed, which is, in geological terms, one of the most sensitive environments there is, in interaction between a river and the sea, with particles arriving there. We have been negligent all round. We need only look at our own garden, at the valleys, like Vaison-la-Romaine, the town of Nîmes, and so on. J. Virieux — I’m not one to dispute that. The peoples of North Africa have stayed in touch with their environment, which is active—the High Atlas is active seismically. People there have this knowledge, this experience, of their environment. In the mountain valleys of the Nice region, where I come from, there is likewise an experience, messages passed down to us by our elders and which say: be careful, the valleys are cut off from the coast, landslides exist. That experience exists, and all populations ought to have that experience. When you see the number of people who come to the French Riviera who have no experience of natural phenomena and won’t tolerate being prevented from going to ski resorts on the week-end, whereas nature, of course, as we know, is sometimes more difficult. Y. Lancelot — Thank you. We’re going to take a few questions from the floor. A participant — To get down to brass tacks, I would like to know at what age you situate the training or classes in which seismics can be taught. Sixth form? Primary school? I don’t think there’s any point doing it at the beginning of secondary school. J. Virieux — It is worth doing. There are phenomena which correspond to the idea of a naturalistic description, and we all know the example of the little girl who had had a class on tsunamis in England and who, as a result, reacted strongly at the time of the wave and saved the whole beach. Understanding will be different according to the different levels, but initiatives exist, even at the level of nursery school. People talk about the disastrous earthquake in Frioul which destroyed a school because the building was poorly reinforced, but in point of fact two schools were destroyed, and we don’t talk about the second school because the teacher, who was married to a geophysician, immediately stuck the children against the wall the moment the roof collapsed, which was a block of concrete, and thanks to her extremely swift reaction, one of the two schools was saved from disaster; the other one, unfortunately, suffered a real catastrophe that was mourned throughout Italy.

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I think there are levels not only for school populations, but for other populations as well. The media should be educated; we have huge problems getting meaningful messages across to journalists. We would love journalists to educate themselves, and we are at their disposal to ensure that journalistic science education is not an empty word. It’s important to educate politicians so that they remember more. They need to take a more scientific approach. Japan is famous for having a weekly cabinet meeting at which a scientist sets out scientific problems. I don’t know of any equivalent. I took part in Jacques Chirac’s “Comité 2000” to set out the scientific challenges, but the repercussions of that committee have been trifling. It’s important to educate the different populations—firemen, of course, but I’m not going to draw up a list for you— and in each case it’s a specific education. You can’t talk about natural phenomena to a child of eight in the same way you would talk about propagation phenomena to a classe préparatoire, or a second-year university student. We ought to be able to discuss the issues in a wide variety of ways, depending on the audience we are addressing. A participant — Professor Barberi spoke of the problematics of evacuation in the event of an explosive eruption of Vesuvius, and that you must neither evacuate people too late, since you have five minutes before it reaches the whole population, nor sound a false alarm, which risks being economically disastrous. First of all, I would like to know if the cost of evacuating 500,000 people has been assessed. Secondly, have there been simulations of evacuation? I don’t think you can simulate the evacuation of 500,000 people, because it would be very costly. Finally, if you made a mistake—that is, if you evacuated the people and there wasn’t an eruption after all—that could be a real, life-size demonstration, because when one does a simulation people generally don’t take it seriously. F. Barberi — The cost is very difficult to assess, and no-one has really bothered with it because, under Italian law, the emergency plan for Vesuvius provides for the declaration of a national state of emergency by the cabinet, which automatically implies the alteration of the plan, even if it has already been approved by parliament, and therefore the freeing-up of the necessary resources. What’s more, I think it would probably pose a problem at the European level as well. As regards evacuation exercises, when I had national responsibility for civil protection in Italy I organised two, obviously with a small fraction of the population, for you cannot evacuate 500,000 people for the sake of an exercise. They involved about 1,000 people and were organised around schools, so with children and their families, who were transported to the host region to facilitate relations between civil servants on both sides as well. We are going to do the operation again next year, with a slightly larger evacuation exercise that will probably involve about 30,000 people—we don’t know the exact number yet. It’s the European Civil Protection, in fact, that’s organising the exercise with the region of Campania. Education is clearly absolutely crucial. The Vesuvius plan was officially approved by the Italian government when I had responsibility for it. I gave a great deal of thought to the matter, and I had no hesitation in saying that a false alarm is always preferable to keeping in the area hundreds of thousands of people whose lives may be at risk. It’s a question of explaining the limitations of science to people, so that they know that mistakes can be made, but that it’s better to make a mistake and move them away from their homes unnecessarily than to let them lose their lives there.

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A participant — Thank you for your talks. I have a question about earthquake prevention and measuring techniques for forecasting earthquakes. Before the earthquake, gases leak out, particularly radioactive gases. Are there measurement records for these gases, and if so, which is the gas the monitoring of whose concentration over time is important for forecasting risks? F. Barberi — There are several phenomena, in principle, that can precede or accompany the start of an earthquake. There is soil deformation, there is microseismicity and there are geochemical variations: there are variations in the depth and pressure of water-tables, and, among these phenomena, an increase in the flow of gas emissions, such as carbonic anhydride, hydrogen and even gases of radioactive origin, mainly radon and helium. The problem is that there are a number of examples where geochemical anomalies in the concentration of certain elements have been noted—for example, of these gases in waters, of emissions of these gases through the soil—, but the bulk of these observations are observations made a posteriori, that is, after the phenomena have occurred. But there aren’t many waters in the world that are continually observed, so we can’t say we have serious statistics on the phenomenon, and we don’t know how many times an anomaly is observed that is not connected with an earthquake. Under these conditions, I think the probability of a false alarm would be enormous. It’s an interesting area of research, and it’s important that we study it, but I don’t see any immediate use for it. It’s not, for the moment, with methods of this kind that we’re going to save lives. Y. Lancelot — Thank you Franco, and I call upon you again for the next paper.

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Seismic Early Warning in Campania56 Paolo GASPARINI Universita degli Studi di Napoli (replaced by Franco BARBERI) Abstract. A scientific center, AMRA, was created recently to look at seismic risks in the Campania region and to devise if possible an early warning system. Based on the analysis of seismic waves, it gives little time to react to earthquakes or eruptions, but a number of preventive measures can nevertheless be implemented, thanks to the will of politicians and responsible persons.

I’m going to take the place of my colleague Paolo Gasparini, who wasn’t able to join us. Paolo Gasparini is the director, president, coordinator, and driving force of AMRA, which is a scientific center that was recently founded in the Naples area. It’s not a research institute, but rather a center for coordination and activities related to scientific activity. All the universities of the region around Naples, all the national scientific organizations are participating, and the goal is to promote scientific research. Several initiatives of this type exist. AMRA is concerned with natural risks and problems linked to the environment. Among its many concerns, we find seismic risk, risk tied to human and geologic activity, volcanic risk, and all natural risks. Among the projects in progress that interest us, one concerns seismic risks and is financed by the Campania region, which is the administrative department surrounding Naples. You know that, unfortunately, we don’t have the scientific capability to predict earthquakes. We don’t know how to recognize the symptoms that announce that an earthquake is imminent. An early warning system is a system based on the properties of seismic waves. With a seismograph, the first seismic wave recorded is called “P.” It’s the wave that has the greatest speed, but the vibration of a P wave is not the one that does the damage. The damage is due essentially to the following waves, the S waves, which cause damage to buildings, and which are slower. Every seismograph registers the P wave first, but at the moment when there’s vibration from P waves, there’s not any damage yet. The damage comes with a delay that depends on the distance from the source, the origin of the earthquake. The farther away one is, the greater the time difference between the arrival of the first and second seismic waves will be. So the early warning system is based on this delay. Campania, in the south of Italy, is a region where there is a lot of seismic activity. In addition, many buildings were not built to earthquake-resistant standards. Vulnerability to earthquakes is thus very high. The result is that earthquakes, even of relatively moderate magnitude, around 7, are catastrophic, and cause a lot of 56

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destruction. The main seismic zone is situated in the Apennines; there is also seismicity tied to two active volcanoes which are Vesuvius and the Phlegrean Fields—but much weaker. The big cities are situated along the coast, Naples especially, and Salerno, which is another big city. Destruction is a concern mainly for the villages, the small cities, in the interior but above all along the coast. Benevento, for example, is situated really very close to the seismic zone and the seismic delay is too short to be able to put in place an early warning system. The project that is under way (Figure 1) foresees an increase in the seismic network and the accelerometric network. You see these signals in this triangle, and the distribution of the new model of seismic network with teletransmission to an automatic processing center, which you see here.

Seismic Risk

A ntropic Risk

AMRA

Regional MultiRisk Network

Modelling

Remote sensing

Hydrogeological Risk

Monitoring

Urban planning and politics

Coastal Risk

V ulcanic Risk

Figure 1.

The problem is to be able to use the delay in the arrival of waves and to do this, the seismic data must be processed instantly, with maximum speed. You see here a simulation (Figure 2): the time necessary to process the recorded data of a single station, meaning to detect the earthquake and estimate its magnitude, is around a second and a half. To process the data from six stations would require three and a half seconds. And obviously, we have to process all the data.

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Figure 2. Time needed to identify and locate the earthquake (Ex. 1980 Irpinia earthquake) with the AMRA network

Taking into account the distance from Naples, the biggest city in Campania, to the seismic zone, we estimate that after three and a half seconds, which is the time needed for the immediate automatic processing of the data, 10 to 12 seconds will remain before the arrival of the tremor that’s going to cause destruction (Figure 3).

dist (km)

Figure 3. Early warning time for the town of Napoli

In 10 seconds, 20 seconds maximum, we can do a lot of things. We could, for example, have automatic signals that would interrupt the circulation of the subway, red traffic lights that light up before a tunnel or a dangerous bridge, systems that would automatically trigger emergency plans in hospitals. There’s a whole host of possibilities, such as interrupting the distribution of gas or of electricity to prevent fires. Systems of this type have already been experimented with in Japan, in Mexico, and, I believe, in Turkey, where they’re in the process of studying the possible applications. In Japan, the subways and the high-speed trains always stop after an earthquake, but not before, because before the tremor reaches the point that the trains stop, the earthquake has already taken place. In principle, there’s a whole host of potential

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applications that are of course automatic. But once again, convincing and educating the population is essential. I want to mention one last thing. This same project involves—and it’s no longer an early warning but something different and very useful—the automatic construction in semi-real time of a network of accelerometers. In a few minutes (100 to 200 seconds) there will be a distribution of the acceleration rate of the ground, so we’re going to know what the real vibration is measured in the various regions. With a data bank containing information on the vulnerability of buildings, of bridges, of tunnels, we’ll be able to obtain fairly quickly a projection of a scenario of damages, which could allow us to offer targeted assistance according to the needs of the region. I want to make a comment. Campania is certainly not the wealthiest region in Italy. You have seen some examples of investments in the seismic network with a very clear social goal which is to try to protect human lives. I spoke to you about investments to lower the risk of Vesuvius, which demonstrate that. Campania is a region with a lot of unemployment, economic problems. But nevertheless there are administrators, politicians who understand that their function is not only to understand people’s desires for the next election, but is also to try to build, in the interest of their citizens, a country with a future that’s a little bit more secure and acceptable. I’m very glad to be able to say that that’s been the case in Campania for several years now, and that six months ago, the administrators of Campania were all reconfirmed in their functions by the popular vote—with more votes than in the preceding elections. Y. Lancelot — Thank you, Franco Barberi. One thing that Franco forgot to say, is that we see the results that can come about when a scientist is appointed to the government, which is after all extremely rare.

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Other Contributions Natural Risks in Turkey Cenk YALTIRAK Istanbul Technical University No written contribution * Study of the 1755 Seism of Lisbon: a French-Moroccan Cooperation Marc-André GUTSCHER Université de Bretagne occidentale, Brest Already published in French: see Pour la Science 325 (Nov 2004) Presentation: 23 slides in French

Conclusions of the Meeting

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Conclusions of the Meeting57 Robert KLAPISCH We have just been through three days of of very dense sessions, I am sure you are all very tired and also maybe frustrated because there just was not enough time to discuss in depth topics which could have been the subjects of a whole meeting by themselves. It is out of the question for me to summarize in twenty minutes what was discussed during some twenty hours of session and I will therefore limit myself to some remarks of general interest. The creation of an Euro-Mediterranean zone has been the goal—starting in Barcelona in 1992—of a series of meetings at the level of ministers and heads of state. This is entirely appropriate, given the high stakes involved. We believe however that this intergovernmental approach, is not sufficient by itself and that a genuine build-up of a Euro-Mediterranean community will only be possible through the deep involvement of actors in the civil society. This means the intervention of individuals and organisations entering deals in all ways of life (Trade, Tourism, Industry but also particularly—and this is of course what concerns us here—between members of scientific communities pursuing common goals. In that spirit, let me elaborate on a phrase that struck me in the contribution by Mr. Bingen. He referred to an ongoing process whereby we are leaving the language of “help” or “assistance” for an attitude of partnership. Of course, becoming a partner does not mean that you become at once an equal. Inequality of development still persists between Northern and Emerging countries, but nevertheless, there is a degree of equality in what concerns rights and dignity. Let me illustrate this by examples. Being a partner, even in a situation where you find yourself not being an equal, leads you to a process whereby you want to progress and become better. And here I want to come back to the procedures for evaluation that where outlined by Jean-Pierre Bourguignon: someone has to tell you the truth about what is not right if you want to correct it. One of our colleagues said in the discussion that evaluation should be “friendly”. That is not what is needed; if you consult a doctor and he tells you to quit smoking, well it is your choice to follow or not the advice, but you need a diagnosis that is frank and not a complacent one. And this is a characteristic of partner relations enabling you to progress that often has succeeded. Another point one which we had a very interesting round table is that progress is impossible if women (one half of the population) are not completely integrated in the scientific production. Without going into details, it is well known that there are real disparities in recruitment and promotions of women scientists. We also know the importance of taking as role models successful women scientists to encourage young girls to pursue scientific studies. 57

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Being partners also suppose that there are structures: with whom would one discuss if there were only individuals? I noticed in many of the talks the role already played by these structures (“we have just signed an Agreement” (or a Memo of Understanding), be it at the level of Ministries or Institutes, and this is a proof that a partnership exists and is making progress. This has led for example to an agreement between Morocco and IN2P3—the particle and nuclear physics branch of CNRS—concerning experiments at CERN. But we have also learnt in the last two days about the existence of a Water Desalination Society in Morocco and also about a more recent one in Tunisia. Entering into agreements with others is a powerful incentive to getting oneself organised and that is what happened for high energy physics, for water treatment, etc. It is an ongoing process and in the sectors where it has been less successful, we should analyse the reasons. After these generalities, let me turn to what actually exists and is successful in terms of these structures. There are indeed Centers of scientific excellence in the developing world and I will cite two: the first is the famous ICTP founded by Abdus Salam and based in Trieste and you have heard the remarkable presentation by its Director, Prof. Sreenivasan. The second one is the new Alexandria Library in Egypt and the talk by Magdy Nagi has shown the rapidly expanding activities of this Library for the Digital Age. Of course, it benefits from technologies developed in the US (Carnegie-Mellon, California, etc.) but building on these, it is already bringing a noteworthy contribution to World culture: digitizing ancient manuscripts in Arabic could obviously not be achieved by any other body! Another example (under construction) is SESAME, which is sponsored by UNESCO and receives considerable support from Germany, the EU and others and will become in 2009 an important world level center for the whole MENA region. When I was interviewed on TV a few days ago, the charming anchor woman asked me “What about Morocco?“. In Morocco I would quote two excellent examples and one which is slightly less positive. The first is an international collaboration with CERN on high energy physics and I would like to dwell on how this started. There were several stages. You first have a few individuals such as Abdeslam Hoummada (my fellow as co-Director of this meeting) that go to France to study towards a PhD and then go on for some post doctoral research within a French team. As time goes on, they are joined by others, and become more autonomous, to the point that going back to Morocco, they form a cluster with other universities and with the backing of the French (IN2P3), they get accepted as full members of ATLAS (a collaboration grouping 2000 researchers from 36 countries and some 150 institutions). A similar situation is happening with water desalination. Azzeddine Elmidaoui has spent many years at Montpellier as a CNRS researcher. Coming back to Morocco, he has founded a group at Kenitra which is very active in the field of the physics and chemistry related to water desalination. As I said already this is very important since researchers in Morocco and Tunisia who for many years have had links with the international community, publish papers etc. will therefore be available at the time decisions will have to be taken in national programs and will insure that the best decisions are taken. As I was discussing with our Algerian colleague: on the one hand, I am full of admiration for the bold and ambitious program in which Algeria has embarked in water desalination, on the other hand, one must admit that because the

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program was conceived in urgency, Algeria has essentially resorted to buying turnkey installations so that it is only after the decision that a program of training of competent technical experts will have to be launched. Membrane technologies are very delicate, and catastrophic failures could occur (and have in some countries). It is obvious that a full fledged construction program responding fully to a situation of need can only be carried out by large, often multinational corporations but there is also clearly the need to have competent people, able to discuss economic and financial aspects but also, ecological impacts, problems of maintenance, all complex problems that should be prepared well in advance. On the whole these are positive aspects, however, what concerns SESAME, I was slightly disappointed. We had an interesting talk from a solid state physicist who explained to us a detailed program using neutron diffraction facilities in France. But apparently for SESAME, he was just waiting that Morocco became an official member. This is a wrong attitude: one should not wait 2009 when SESAME is running to set up a group with ideas and equipment to work there. As Prof. Schopper said, all researchers of the region are welcome at SESAME whether their country is or not a member. There is an advantage to being a member since one is then part of the decision making. These are examples that have been reported at our conference (I am sure there are others unknown to me) to show that one should not hesitate to profit from opportunities offered by the international context. Let me now turn to tools and to essential needs: water, energy and food. The Internet has now become an essential tool since one understands the importance of being able to communicate results to one’s peers. Back in 2002, during our first meeting in Marseille, our Moroccan colleagues were complaining that all they had at their disposal to transmit heavy files were ordinary phone lines with 24 k modems. Since then, as Guy Wormser was reminding us, speed has increased by a factor 100. The next step is the Grid. As soon as we deal with topics like those mentioned by Ken Peach and his colleagues, we need that tool which will transform everything.To take as an example concerning early warning of catastrophies such as earthquakes, early warning etc., we need these tools to cope with the situation. In addition, it so happens that these tools are relatively affordable. Virieux mentioned the necessity to have a number of sensors, obviously one has to link them together and this makes tools necessary. One aspect which enhances the usefulness of these tools is that they naturally lead to enhanced collaboration. I must tell you that one of the critical remarks we would have as “northerners “ is that we are struck by the low level of contacts between scientists from the different Maghreb countries and having common projects would certainly improve the situation. Since we are asked to come with recommendation, I would suggest the following. Abdeslam Hoummada has told us about a private fiber optic connection set-up at low cost between CalTech in Pasadena and Sao Paolo in Brazil. Why not propose such a link extending, say from Mauritania to Egypt? This is a project that would mobilize scientist’s energies and political decision makers might be favourably impressed by the visibility and potential of this project. On a more intellectual plan we could draw attention to the potential of CERN for providing training for young people, for particle physics and related fields and technologies. It would be a pity if North African countries somehow did not take advantage of this possibility. We have therefore proposed a trans-Maghreb workshop of interested physicists. In addition, Etienne Guyon has mentioned to me a project in

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discussion with Moroccan colleagues to hold a meeting (probably in 2007 in Oujda) to discuss reforms of higher education (so-called LMD framework). Let us now turn to basic needs which are water and food. A dominant factor which has been discussed in several talks is demography. If you have a fixed resource such as water and if the population increases, obviously the availability per capita will decrease, this is a problem that has to be addressed and there is no escaping it. Yes a demographic transition is taking place, but it will take some twenty years to be completed. As regards electricity, the situation is even worse since to profit from the amenities of modern life, individual consumption, quite legitimately will increase. As for food, it is even more complicated: in addition to the increase in population, there is the fact (underlined both by Dollé and Akesbi that agricultural yields are a factor of 10 smaller in North Africa than in Europe or other countries. An answer to this is not at all obvious and we should be grateful to Akesbi to have shown that the official answer (a common market of free trade) is in fact creating even more problems than the present situation. As the population increases, Maghreb countries are not selfsufficient any more and must import most of their food. I have heard that Algeria’s self sufficiency is only 4% (it imports 96% of its food). The situation is less dramatic in Morocco and Tunisia, but still, population increase will lead to even less selfsufficiency. Of course, one does not necessarily have to be self-sufficient, provided you have enough money to pay for imports. The problem is even more complicated because of the free trade zone. Akesbi has shown us that things are skewed because a free trade agreement has already (for political reasons and without understanding fully its implications) been signed with the USA to take effect in 2020 which precludes any agreement with Europe. We have no solution to that situation, but at least we have pointed out to questions that were not foreseen in the optimistic assumptions of Barcelona in 1992. The population problems and the fact that a number of professions will undergo changes could only find in my mind a solution (avoiding emigration and urban poverty), with the advent of what is sometimes called the knowledge economy. However, such a transition is difficult to conceive in a society counting 60% illiterates. It is therefore urgent, and this is beyond our reach to improve drastically access to basic knowledge of a large share of the population, and in particular for women for which the problem is even more acute. Then there is the question of necessary technologies. We heard brilliant lectures, in particular the one by Carlo Rubbia. Let me remind you, and this not specific to southern countries the problem of fossil fuels: sooner or later they will become depleted but also they lead to climatic change because of the emission of CO 2 in the atmosphere. It is entirely possible that one stops using fossil fuels even before they are exhausted because we understand their ill effects. Rubbia talked about his ideas about a new nuclear energy and above all about a new form of solar energy and he insists on the necessity of an ambitious research program to bring these potential ideas to fruition. I must admit that I have been greatly impressed by the contribution on by Driss Zejli about wind energy. I am not a great fan of wind energy, but I believe that young Moroccan researcher succeeded in conveying his enthusiasm about the potential in the extreme South of Morocco, a place practically with no population and where, because of trade winds, there are 6,000 hours a year of sufficiently strong wind. Given a huge capital investment, he claims enough power could be made for export to Europe. He may be right or wrong, but I do relish the idea that young Moroccan researchers could

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be hardy enough to propose new ideas and not just replication of what is heard in Denmark or Germany. Concerning water, desalination technologies are now well known, but the message I hear from that community is that once you have obtained water which is relatively pricey, to just dump it back into the sea without recycling it is not understandable (at the minimum, for sanitary reasons) and technologies are there just to do that and they will get better and better. About catastrophes, we were given important inputs: the fact that we have no detailed mapping of faults in the Earth crust in the region is something that has to be remedied, What Franco Barberi has shown us is the absolute necessity of contingency plans in some regions (and the Vesuvio is admittedly exemplary in that respect). I also believe that up to date instrumentation is mandatory and as Virieux said, we should not tell people that maybe nothing will happen for the next 299 years, but we should take advantage of what has recently happened in Asia to get the means to do what is indispensable. In addition, we have to educate people and I am grateful to Virieux to have stated that education of people on what to do in an emergency starts at the kindergarten and not only at university level. Recommendations. We are finishing to write recommendations and these will be reported to NATO. 58

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The recommendations resulting from this workshop can be found in Annex

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Sharing Knowledge Across the Mediterranean Area P. Faugeras et al. (Eds.) IOS Press, 2006 © 2006 IOS Press. All rights reserved.

Recommendations 1. Recommendation 1: On the Prevention of Seismic and Volcanic Catastrophes Initiate Euromediterranean “field” research programs within the European Commission, encouraging coordinated participation of both northern and southern scientific communities. Advise concerned governments on the necessity (and benefits) of implementing paraseismic norms for buildings and various urban developments in high-risk areas. This could be done through specific Euromediterranean conferences. Spread normalized seismic early warning systems within the still poorly equipped areas, and link them together via Internet. Take the necessary steps so that data can be treated on-line by using the Computing Grid. Train appropriate technical support personnel. Study in detail existing early warning systems (following the example of Italy) and adapt them to various areas of high risk. Examine both technical and societal aspects. Encourage simple “down to earth” risk education in schools and communities with a strong commitment of teachers on an everyday basis. 2. Recommendation 2: Insuring Food Security and Food Safety in South and East Mediterranean Countries It appears necessary to promote a true common Euromediterranean economic zone that would allow effective mutual access to markets and protect and sustain local productions by looking for complementarily in types of products and timing of market availability between the European Union and Mediterranean countries. This should result in better relations and agreements between professional organizations of the North and the South. In conformity with the Tarragona declaration (Mediterranean Universities Forum 2-3 June 2005), support should be given to setting up a Euromediterranean framework of research and higher education urgently serving the needs of agriculture and food industry. It is mandatory to give priority to a broad cooperative research program towards a sustainable agriculture able to take into account ecological constraints through the advances of Science. This would allow development of traditional agriculture and reconcile competitivity of modern agriculture with environmental and sanitary requirements.

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3. Recommendation 3: Setting up a Dedicated Academic Optical Fiber Line across North Africa A broadband Internet connection is now indispensable if one is to pursue research in international cooperation. The project EUMETGRID, an outgrowth of the European academic network GEANT is a first notable step in allowing researchers of South Mediterranean countries to link with their peers in the North. Given the probable increase in the demand for bandwidth and the desirability of more cooperation between countries of the Maghreb, particularly in fields such as climatology and catastrophe prevention, we recommend that scientists from all North African countries (from Morocco to Egypt) get together to set up a joint proposal for a proprietary dedicated fiber line linking all countries. The example of the connection between California Institute of Technology and Sao Paolo University shows that this can be set up using very means and volunteer work by students. 4. Recommendation 4: Taking Advantage of Opportunities in International Projects CERN, the European laboratory for particle physics has now opened its program to non-member states researchers worldwide. In the last 5 years a determined effort has been made by CERN management to attract groups from the MENA region and physicists from Morocco, India, Pakistan and Iran are now taking an active part in the preparation of the Large Hadron Collider experimental program. Physicists from Egypt and United Arab Emirates are presently considering that possibility. This is a very advantageous and cost-effective opportunity to take part in front line fundamental research and of training young people in very advanced technologies that can later be applied to other types of research. It would be desirable to get university groups in North Africa to become aware of these existing possibilities and of the advantages for their countries in taking part in that program. We therefore recommend that researchers from Morocco and Egypt convene (with the help of CERN and other interested agencies) a pan North-African workshop to examine the modalities of a joint effort in that direction Another international effort is the future SESAME light source that will open as an international laboratory based in Jordan and will start operation in 2009. Nine MENA countries are already members of that international organization with Morocco, which was one of the founders, presently an observer and expected to join soon. Since light and X rays are universal tools for a broad variety of research in the physical, life and earth sciences, one feels that this should be of interest to all countries of the region, particularly Algeria and Tunisia, but also including Mauritania and Libya. We therefore recommend that physicists from Egypt and Morocco invite colleagues from the region (with the help of SESAME user body) to hold a workshop to incite their colleagues of other North African countries to join that federative regional project. Given the synergies between both international projects, we believe it would be advantageous to combine the workshops on CERN and SESAME participation.

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Author Index Akesbi, N. Allal, S. Appriou, P. Barberi, F. Ben Hassine, O.K. Benchekroun, D. Benchrifa, R. Bennouna, A. Berkaoui, M. Berrah, N. Bingen, G. Bourguignon, J.-P. Cheikh-Rouhou, M. Colombani, P. Connerade, J.-P. Djama, F. Dollé, V. Ellis, J. Elmidaoui, A.

131 81 7 235 39 200 70 70 11 43 29 31 142 14 100 210 119 193 185

Faugeras, P. Garagunis, C. Gasparini, P. Gentile, D. Hasnain, S. Klapisch, R. Marquette, G. Peach, K. Rigatos, G. Rubbia, C. Rubio, J.-A. Schopper, H. Sherif, M.M. Sommariva, C. Sreenivasan, K.R. Tapponnier, P. Tzafestas, E. Virieux, J. Zejli, D.

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