MEGACITIES
MEGACITIES
T. V. Jayan
VIGYAN PRASAR
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Contents Foreword .................................................................................. vii Preface ....................................................................................... xi 1.
Megacities......................................................................... 1
2.
Megacities through history ........................................... 7
3.
Megacity Dynamics ...................................................... 19
4.
Slums: An Urban Reality ............................................. 35
5.
Megacities-Mumbai ...................................................... 46
6.
Megacity - Transport .................................................... 53
7.
Conclusion ..................................................................... 64 Suggested Readings ..................................................... 69 Index ............................................................................... 70
Foreword Earth is the only planet we know of with life on it. Animals, Plants and microorganisms maintain a delicate balance with a variety of life forms we call Biodiversity. Each species depends on other species for its existence. When we talk of life on earth, we also talk about the human species. If we need to understand and preserve our environment, we shall need to understand the interdependence of the species on each other and the importance of natural resources like air, water and soil for living beings. Life has continued to evolve on this earth over millions of years adapting to changing environment. Only those species have survived that have adapted to the changing environment. This change could be due to natural causes like earthquakes, eruption of volcanoes, cyclones, and so on. It even could be due to climate change. However, quite often this change is brought about by the species higher up in the ladder of evolution that tries to control environment to suit its needs and for development. This is precisely what human species has done to our fragile planet. We need energy for development; which we traditionally obtain by burning natural resources like
firewood, coal and petroleum. This is what we have been doing for centuries. Today there is consensus that human activities like burning of fossil fuels and consequent pumping of gases like carbon dioxide into atmosphere have been responsible for the earth getting hotter and hotter. Today, there are threats to our planet arising from climate change, degrading environment, the growing rate of extinction of species, declining availability of fresh water, rivers running dry before they can reach sea, loss of fertile land due to degradation, depleting energy sources, incidence of diseases, challenge of feeding an exponentially growing population, and so on. The human population is now so large that the amount of resources needed to sustain it exceeds what is available. Humanity’s environmental demand is much more that the earth’s biological capacity. This implies that we are living way beyond our means, consuming much more than what the earth can sustain. To draw the attention of the world to these aspects and in an attempt to establish that environment is where we live; and development is what we all do in attempting to improve our lot, within that abode, the United Nations has declared the year 2008 as “The Year of the Planet Earth”. It is hoped that with the cooperation of all we shall be able to save the biodiversity and the life on this planet. A host of activities and programmes are being organized all over the world for this purpose. One of the important aspects is to make people aware about the challenges we face and the possible solutions to save this planet from heading towards catastrophe. It is with such thoughts that Vigyan Prasar has initiated programmes with activities built around the theme “The Planet Earth”. The activities comprise of
development and production of a series of informative booklets, radio and television programmes, and CD-ROMs; and training of resource persons in the country in collaboration with other agencies and organizations. It is expected that the present series of publications on the theme “The Planet Earth” would be welcomed by science communicators, science clubs, resource persons, and individuals; and inspire them initiate actions to save this fragile abode of ours.
Vinay B. Kamble Director, Vigyan Prasar New Delhi
Preface In 2007, humanity reached a significant demographic milestone: for the first time in history more people are now living in cities than the countryside. According to projections made by the United Nations, by 2030, cities will be home to over 60 per cent of people. The growth rate is particularly rapid in many of the so-called megacities, cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. The megacities listed by the United Nations already have a total population of nearly 300 million. Needless to say, the megacities are increasingly becoming the growth engines of their respective national economies. But as these cities and economies grow, so do the challenges. One key issue that constantly nags city administrators and town planners is the burden that such runaway growth places on urban infrastructure. Urban residents the world over want — and deserve — a good quality of life. They need good air to breathe, good water to drink and reliable electricity to power their lives. People need good healthcare facilities. They also need to be mobile — so transportation systems must be capable of transporting millions of people while putting as little strain as possible on the environment and city budgets. In other words, a good quality of life requires a well-oiled, efficiently-functioning infrastructure. Moreover, an effective infrastructure in turn
contributes to economic prosperity, further improving quality of life. Unfortunately, the infrastructure in many of these cities lags behind the population’s needs — a major challenge for city governments in both emerging and industrialised nations. The monograph retraces the history of megacities as a whole, complex problems faced by them in terms of economic development, quality of life and the environment. It also looks into the issues posed by unchecked population growth in megacities – mainly through inward migration of people from hinterland in search of better career prospects, living conditions and education. Megacities have been touted as the urban phenomenon of the 21st century. Their unprecedented size and complexity, and their critical role as gateways in the global economy, pose huge challenges for sustainable urban development. Megacities prioritise economic competitiveness and employment. There is a strong focus on creating jobs, with unemployment emerging as the top economic challenge in emerging and transitional cities. Competitiveness in the global economy is another important consideration. Majority of city administrators thinks that their cities need to place high importance on making themselves competitive to attract private investment when deciding on infrastructure issues. The environment matters, but more often than not is sacrificed for growth. Vital environmental issues, however, cannot be swept under the carpet. Air pollution is emerging as the most significant environmental challenge in most
megacities in the developing world, followed by congestion issues. While the first chapter gives an overall picture about megacities, the second one takes one back in time to illustrate how did such big cities come about and how did they get the name megacity. This traces back the history of megacities to the heydays of the Greek empire around 370 BC. Chapter No. 3 digs into what can be called as a “megacity ecosystem” in an attempt to understand its dynamics. It also touches upon the fact that how megacities are increasingly becoming a developing world phenomenon of late and describes how much of the prosperity and stability of the world hinges on healthy growth of these urban agglomerations. The next chapter, “Slums – cities within cities”, throws light on abject poverty and squalor in which majority of population in many megacities, particularly those lives from developing countries. The chapter which heavily draws from UN – Habitat State of the World’s Cities reports periodically brought out by the UN for more than a decade in the past. The numbers brought out by these studies speak for themselves and paint a gloomy picture about living conditions of those living urban slums. Chapter No. 5 takes up commercial nerve centre of India – Mumbai – for an up close analysis. The focus is largely on travails of those live in Mumbai slums. The chapter on transportation briefly discusses various mass transit options being considered by various megacity
administrations in the world. What is, however, glaring is that town planners and city governments, particularly from developing countries, have seldom tried to sell public transport as a means of conveyance. As a result, most of these large cities have an ever-increasing number of private vehicles on rods, seriously compromising air and environment quality in these cities.
T.V. Jayan
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1 Megacities Introduction The year 2007 marks a turning point in the history of urbanisation. For the first in time in the history of mankind, more people will live in cities than the countryside. In other words, one out of every two people on the earth will be living in an urban settlement. This should actually be a cause for celebration. For, right from the days of ancient civilisations, cities have been hailed as centres of learning, economic growth and cultural creativity. Many of them have also served as seats of power. Even today, a large number of people migrate to cities in search of better education, employment, and healthcare facilities. Across civilisations, cities have been playing a valuable role in creating wealth, enhancing social development, attracting investment and harnessing both human and technical resources for achieving unprecedented gains in productivity and competitiveness. Today, as countries develop, urban settlements account for a larger share of national income. It is estimated that urban based economic activities account for up to 55 per cent of gross national product (GNP) in low income
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MEGACITIES
The Megacity of the future
countries, 73 per cent in middle income countries and a whopping 85 per cent in high income countries. If the economic output of the five largest cities in the US – New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston and Philadelphia – added together, their combined wealth wil make them the fourth largest economy in the world.
Megacities
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According to the State of the World 2007 report, brought out by the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute, in the last half century, the world’s urban population has increased nearly fourfold, from 732 million in 1950 to more than 3.2 billion in 2006. In comparison, only 30 per cent of the world’s population lived in cities in 1950. But it jumped to 47 per cent in 2000. This figure may even reach up to 60 per cent by 2030. Such rapidly increasing urbanisation, particularly in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, throws up many challenges as well as opportunities. One such major challenge is mushrooming slums in cities. As people in large numbers move to cities from the hinterland, mainly in search of jobs, it puts pressure on basic amenities like shelter, sanitation and other infrastructural facilities available in a particular city. Such surge in demand often leads to spiraling of cost, making a decent accommodation unaffordable for most migrants. Similarly, when cities grow, there is a boom in construction activities and it attracts a large number of casual labourers from countryside and smaller cities who put themselves up in makeshift shanties. Over years, these shanties end up becoming permanent residences and colonies. According to the United Nations Habitat State of the World’s Cities Report 2006/7, the latest in a continuing series of publications that gauge urban growth and its impact on humanity as a whole, one out of three city dwellers lives in inadequate housing and has no or little access to most basic services such as sanitation and safe drinking water. The global slum population, according to the UN report, has already crossed the one billion mark. This unprecedented growth in slum population is rising serious questions about sustainability of urban settlements.
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If the 20th century was the century of urban sprawl, 21st century will be the century of the megacity. As per the definition adopted by the UN, a megacity is defined as an urban area with more than 10 million inhabitants. In the 1950s, there were only two cities in the world that had a population of more than 10 million, whereas this number rose to 9 in 1985 and 25 in 2005. This may further go up to 60 by 2015. Before World War II, megacities was a phenomenon of industrialised countries. This trend has greatly changed ever since. Today, two-thirds of megacities in the world are in developing and newly industrialised countries. “Megacities are more than just large cities. Their scale creates new dynamics, new complexity and new simultaneity of events and processes – physical, social and economic. They host intense and complex interactions between different demographic, social, political, economic and ecological processes. Megacities undergoing economic boom times often generate considerable opportunities, as well as strong pressures for change accompanied by environmental degradation,” says a brief document1 prepared as part of the International Year of Planet Earth. The megacities of today have far exceeded the proportions of Classical Rome, regarded the first giant city in world history. In first world and third world countries alike, rapid urbanisation has led to a number of social and economic problems, including poverty, hunger, homelessness, crime, and disease transmission. In addition, the resulting demand for land and resources has incurred numerous environmental concerns, including issues of pollution, sanitation management, water, and energy. 1
Megacities – our global urban future, Earth Sciences for Society Foundation, The Netherlands, Dec. 2005.
Megacities
5 Box 1: Urbanisation pot pourri
In 2005, the world’s urban population was 3.17 billion out of a world total of 6.45 billion. If the current trends continue it would reach nearly 5 billion out of a world total of 8.1 billion by 2030. The world’s urban population to grow at an average annual rate of 1.78 per cent, almost twice the growth rate of the world’s total population. Annual urban growth rates are highest in sub-Saharan Africa, at 4.58 per cent. South-eastern Asia with 3.82 per cent, Eastern Asia (3.39 per cent), Western Asia (2.96 per cent), Southern Asia (2.89 per cent) and Northern Africa (2.48 per cent) follow. The developed world’s cities are growing at a slower pace, averaging 0.75 per cent a year. Asia and Africa will dominate global urban growth through 2030. The least urbanised regions of the world – Asia and Africa –have 39.9 per cent and 39.7 per cent of their populations living in cities living in cities as of 2005. But, by 2030, about 54.5 per cent of Asian population will be urban and in Africa 53.5 per cent. Asia alone will account for more than half the world’s urban population (2.66 billion out of a global urban population of 4.94 billion). The urban population of Africa (748 million) will by 2030 be larger than the total population of Europe at that time (685 million).
In the developing world, megacities grow faster than their infrastructure. This run-away urban growth can foster high traffic volumes, high concentrations of industrial production, ecological overload, unregulated and disparate land and property markets, insufficient housing development and, in some cases, such extremes of poverty and wealth living side by side that social unrest may follow.
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MEGACITIES
In developed countries too, things are not different. Inside every first world city is a third world city2. Even in the most prosperous cities around the world, there is an inner city battered with poverty and subsequent inequalities. City leaders and local municipalities always find it difficult to manage the well-being of those millions living within the city limits as the cost of implementing programmes to effectively serve the majority of the inhabitants skyrockets with each added individual. Sadowski and others 3 have shown in a study how a seasoned first world megacity like New York City struggles to cope with such pressures. “After a century of immigrant and migrant influx and considerable financial resources, the basic issues of poverty, sanitation and transportation remain unaddressed or unresolved. The length and urgency of the lists get longer with time, while available financial resources are depleted. As such, many residents and authorities have accepted the status quo. For third world megacities where the population increases by the thousands daily, the impact of overpopulation is even more pronounced without adequate resources to start.” The ardent task before the scientific and engineering community, particularly geographers, earth scientists and town planners, hence, is to make sustainable management of the present and future megacities possible. Inclusion of advanced scientific tools such as geographical information systems and spatial technologies in planning and concerted efforts in the execution of these projects can help ameliorate the negative impacts of development on social and natural environments. 2
3
Megacities – Trends and issues towards sustainable urban development. Abbi Sadowski et al, 2000. Megacities – Trends and issues towards sustainable urban development. Abbi Sadowski et al, 2000.
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2 Megacities Through History
W
hat is urbanisation? At the beginning of the 19th century, only five per cent of the world’s population lived in urban areas; at the beginning of the 20th century, it was close to 15 per cent; and today, in 2007, 50 per cent of the world population are urbanites. Looking towards the future, the trend is even more dramatic. According to the United Nations, “Virtually all of the population growth expected during 20002030 will be concentrated in the urban areas of the world.” Janice E Perlman, an expert in urban studies and author of several books on the subject, likes to describe the 21 st century as ‘urban century’. This is because for the first time since the rise of cities 10,000 years ago, more than half the world’s population will live in urban settlements. This transformation from a predominantly rural world to a predominantly urban one forces mankind to rethink about most of its basic paradigms. From 2000 to 2030, the urban population is expected to increase by two billion, the same number that will be added to
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MEGACITIES
the whole population of the world. The current urban population of 3.17 billion people will swell to 4.9 billion by 2030; whereas, the total world population is 6.1 billion now and will grow to 8.1 billion over the same time period. The second major transformation is a total reversal in the locus of our major cities, from the highly industrialised countries of the north to the developing countries of the south, that is those, in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In 1950, only three of the world’s largest cities were in poor countries; currently, only four of the world’s largest cities are in rich countries. This reversal has contributed to the third transformation—from the city of the elite to the city of the masses, or from a city of formal sector to that of an informal sector. While cities of the “first world” remain relatively stable in population, cities in the developing countries are growing at about 2.3 per cent per year, and their low-income areas (shantytowns, slums, and squatter settlements) are growing at twice that rate. This means that poverty is becoming urbanised, as cityward migration transforms rural peasants into urban squatters. Housing, jobs, and services, not provided through state or market mechanisms, are created by the ingenuity of the urban poor through the “informal economy,” which accounts for one-quarter to two-thirds of the “real economy” of these cities. According to Peter Hall, renowned British professor of planning who teaches at Barlett School of Architecture and Planning, the term megacity might be new, but the phenomenon is not. The Greeks clearly regarded their 1
“Megacities, World cities and Global cities” by Peter Hall, The First Megacities Lecture, Feb 1997, Rotterdam
Megacities through history
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The term megacity might be new, but the phenomenon is not.
Megalopolis, now Megalópoli, — a town located in the western parts of the prefecture Arcadia in Greece — as a very big place. It was founded around 370 BC by Epaminondas of Thebes and its wall reached about 9 kilometres round. Epaminondas helped its progress by forcibly moving into it the inhabitants of some 40 villages. But even at zenith of its growth Megalopolis population was around 40,000. Even Athens, widely referred as the cradle of Western civilization, though seemed perilously large to the people of ancient world, had between 215,000 and 300,000 people at its peak. With that numbers, Athens polis – city and surrounding countryside — was considered the most populous Greek state. First ever city that could have qualified to be called as megacity in ancient days was Rome, even though not strictly in terms of numbers. Rome was …”a kind of rehearsal or trailer for what cities would later become.” That is how Hall puts it.
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How big it is a matter of conjecture, however. Population figures for Rome available in the literature up to the fourth century AD vary between three quarters of a million to around one and a quarter million. The fact is that Rome was very big, bigger by far than any city that existed before, two or three times the record set by Patna (Patliputra) three hundred years earlier, or by Babylon one hundred and fifty years before that and probably bigger than any that would follow for the next seven centuries. Thanks to its huge size, city administrators were forced to come up with complex systems of distributing food supplies, long-distance delivery of water and even waste disposal. It is said that Rome administrators even had to formulate rules of urban traffic management. For nearly 1700 years there was no another western city that could rival or overtake Classical Rome. Constantinople may have equaled ancient Rome in the middle ages, and Peking (today’s Beijing) in the early modern period. But in the early 19th century, London began emerging as a great city. Riding on the waves created by the Industrial Revolution, it began attracting people not just from other parts of the country, but even from other countries. It started to expand at a dizzy rate, creating a precedent that would soon be followed by many North American and European cities as well as a few cities in the east, later in the century. According to available data, population in London in 1801 was just under one million, but it more than doubled to 2,685,000 in 50 years. New York, however, was coming from behind to overtake London and the American city attained No. 1 position by 1925. By the turn of the 20th century there was hardly any city in the world that could have been called as a megacity. So, what is a megacity? According to the definition coined by the United Nations, a megacity is a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million people. By this
Megacities through history
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Arial view of a megacity
standard, there were only two megacities in the world in 1950: New York and London. In comparison, the number of such cities in the world climbed to nine in 1985 and to 25 in 2005, exactly 20 years later. Tokyo2 has been leading the pack for a while and today its population is close to 34 million. As of November 2006, there are six more cities in the 20-million club, including Mumbai and New Delhi from India. Others are Seoul, Mexico City, New York and Sao Paulo. Experts believe that the urban phenomenon of this century will be megacities. As hubs of trade, culture, information and industry, they will be vested with such power that at many levels they will act as city states that are independent of national and regional mediation, say the UN report on the State of Cities 2006/07. 2
Th. Brinkhoff: The Principal Agglomerations of the World, http://www.citypopulation. de, 2006-11-22
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Skyscrapers are the order of the day
So, the definition of what is a megacity is clearly arbitrary, as the population concentration that differentiates megacities from other urban areas changes with time and context. In the ancient world, Rome, with its over one million inhabitants, was a megacity, and today, London or Chicago could be considered megacities, even if they fall below the 10 million UN threshold. Although there will be a few in the rich countries, megacities are primarily going to be a phenomenon of the developing world. If one considers population projections for the 11 largest urban agglomerates in 2015 most of the largest cities of the world will be
Megacities through history
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in the developing world, a significant change from the largest city populations in 1980 and 1994. Although Tokyo will remain the largest city in the world, New York, at second place in 1980 and 1994, is projected to be at the bottom of the list by 2015, while Mumbai will have climbed from sixth to second place, and Jakarta from last to fifth place. Both Tokyo and New York are experiencing relatively modest population increases, and a number of other large cities in the developed world are experiencing population declines. In contrast, the populations of developing world megacities are typically growing from one to five per cent per year, although these rates are expected to abate somewhat in the next 15 years (UN, 1998). However, if all the megacities of the world — developed and developing alike — have one factor in common, it is the great diversity in many of their salient indices, from cost of living to mobility, that often reflects differing approaches to public policies. Today’s megacities are home to nearly 10 per cent of the global urban population. A good example that megacities in the developing world are going through extraordinary spurts of growth is Lagos, former capital city of Nigeria. This commercial capital city, today, is the fastest growing megacity in the world, growing at a more than 5 per cent a year. Almost two-thirds of its over 12 million population lives in slums with no reliable access to drinking water, electricity, waste disposal, and even roads. City authorities estimate that its population will swell to 25 million by 2015, putting further strain on the city’s infrastructure. Projections by experts indicate that all but four megacities of the world will be in developing countries. Asia alone will account for 12 of them! What could make matters worse is the fact that in many of these regions, particularly countries in Asia and Africa, there has been little planning or development of infrastructure to keep pace with the trend.
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Cities are growing vertically to accommudate more and more people
Despite the fact that megacities are increasingly a phenomenon of the developing world, there are some major reasons why the developed world needs to pay attention to them: What happens in the megacities of the developing world affects the rest of the world: The combination of high population density, poverty, and limited resources makes the developing world megacity an environment which
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favours the incubation of disease, from cholera to tuberculosis to sexually transmitted infections, that in an age of rapid communication can almost instantaneously be propagated to the rest of the world. Vulnerability to terrorism, natural hazards, ecological disasters, war conditions, and food scarcity are also exacerbated in the megacities of the developing world. As recent episodes have shown, attacks against embassies, businesses, and travelers directly affect the developed world. Megacities, both in the developed and the developing world, are places where social unrest often originates, as demonstrated currently in Jakarta. Such unrest affects the rest of the world, as do other phenomena of megacities, including the rate at which their residents emigrate to other areas, and the competitive challenge presented by their cheap labour forces. Similarly, the ecological impacts of sprawling megacities extend to other regions of the world. A good example for this is atmospheric brown cloud. Megacities are key instruments of social development: In a world concerned with the growth of the global population, megacities are strong indicators of both present and future conditions. For example, they have become instruments for dramatic birthrate reductions in comparison to other regions of the countries in which they are situated; they are instruments to promote human genome diversity because they attract diverse populations; they are the site of cultural and educational institutions that promote social development; they often set the tone for a nation’s social values; Megacities are centres of economic growth: Cities around the world are playing an ever-increasing role in creating wealth, attracting investment and harnessing both human as well as technical resources for achieving unprecedented gains in productivity and competitiveness. As countries develop, urban settlements account for a larger share of national income. Cities like Sao Paulo, the largest city in
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Saga of diminishing urban green space
Brazil, and Bangkok, the capital city of Thailand, may account for just over 10 per cent of population in their respective countries. But, each contributes more than 40 per cent of national GDP (gross domestic product). Similarly, Mumbai in India. The residents of Mumbai pay more than 40 per cent of the country’s taxes. The unhindered growth of megacities, thanks to urbanisation and industrialisation, has also created a host of social and environmental problems, or exacerbated existing ones. A proliferation of slum areas, severe traffic congestion, uncontrolled industrial growth, poor air quality, an encroachment on natural systems, and deterioration in public health due to water pollution, inadequate drainage, and solid waste disposal practices are the norm in major cities.
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The economic impact of pollution in urban areas in general, in megacities in particular, in terms of loss of productivity and health costs is estimated to be very high. According to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report in 2002, in many countries they are estimated to exceed 10 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Incidentally, annual growth of 10 per cent in GDP considered to be an excellent performance by the economy by any standards. About one in four urban residents does not have access to a safe and reliable water supply while one out of three city dwellers lacks adequate sanitation services. The environmental and social issues are much more than local in importance - they have national, regional, and global significance. The urban challenges - finance, social, and environmental - facing developing countries are alarming. What, if anything, can governments do? A recent ADB study pointed out that governments must return to planned and managed growth of the urban sector. Apart from taking care of the needs of urban poor in megacities, there are several other means to improve the lot in megacities. According to development and planning experts, one such method could be focusing on secondary cities. Investment in infrastructure and creation of job opportunities in these second-rung cities can help slow down growth in megacities which in turn would require minimum investment to avoid environmental and public health disasters. More than likely, most of Asia’s megacities will not be pleasant places for residents in the near future and would contain large slums. Substantial investments are needed to avoid further degradation of urban air quality and to provide adequate safe drinking water. Attention also needs to be given to moving
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Box 2: Lagos – the fastest growing megacity in the world The metropolis of Lagos is the largest melting pot of West Africa’s ethnic groups and the commercial centre of a nation of 108 million inhabitants. Lagos is Nigeria’s oldest and largest city. It is also the largest city in tropical Africa. However, it has given up its role as the capital city to a smaller town named Abuja. Nonetheless, Lagos remains unrivalled as the centre for commerce and finance in Nigeria. The heart of Lagos is Lagos Island, where all the major banks, department stores and restaurants are located. The rich and the famous of the city live on Victoria and Ikoyi Islands. The three islands together make up most of downtown Lagos. The rest of the city, occupied by three-quarters of the population, is of very poor housing quality and very high density (up to 200,000 per square kilometre). Most families live in single rooms of sometimes under 8 square metres, sharing cooking and sanitary facilities with neighbours. There is no statistical data on the population of Lagos, although UN estimates put the number of inhabitants at over 13.4 million in the year 2000, which would make Lagos the world´s seventh largest city. The same UN statistics reveal Lagos to be the fastest growing city in the world and estimate that its population will exceed 20 million by 2010. In that event, Lagos would become the world´s third largest city. Lagos was founded as a Yoruba fishing and farming settlement in the 17th century. By 1861, when British colonialisation began, Lagos grew to about 20,000 inhabitants and established a reputation as a shipping and trading center and as a place of refuge from local wars. The city became the capital of Southern Nigeria in 1906. In 1914, Southern Nigeria and Northern Nigeria were joined to form the Colony and Protectorate of Nigeria. Head of the administration was the Governor-General, residing in the capital Lagos. The population of Lagos reached 700,000 in 1960, when Nigeria became independent. Since then, the city has grown steadily, although it lost its role as the capital city in December 1991. The main reason was that Lagos lay within the home area of
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one of the country´s largest ethnic groups. The new capital Abuja was constructed on a largely unoccupied site near the country´s centre and between the home areas of the three largest ethnic groups.
polluting industries away from major urban centres and introducing an incentive and disincentive regime to reduce pollution emissions. Political steps are also required to resolve solid waste disposal location problems, a critical dilemma throughout the region caused by political interference and public distrust. It is now widely recognized that the urban environment is a poverty issue and that addressing urban environmental degradation must at the same time address the needs of the poor. A key requirement is the strengthening of local government capacity. Similarly, more innovative, equitable and participatory approaches involving local communities are likely to be cheaper and more effective in serving community needs. Self-organized initiatives by local communities, as well as collaborations among civil society groups, business and local governments, have met with some success in providing public goods for the poor. Finally, urban finance reforms are needed to increase the supply of funds, improve the effectiveness of funding, and improve resource efficiency. These reforms need to be implemented at the micro- and macro-levels. At the microlevel, the financial viability and sustainability of urban environmental services need to be significantly improved by implementing mechanisms for cost recovery. At the macro-level, the overall financial sustainability of government entities responsible for providing such services needs to be improved.
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3 Megacity Dynamics
M
egacities contain a rich mix of coexisting people. There are commonly groups with their own distinctive ethnic, community, cultural roots, lifestyles and social milieu. Differences in economic development, social polarisation, quality of infrastructure and governance must be recognised and taken into account. Such scale and dynamism, coupled with complex interacting processes and the sheer concentration of human capital make megacities incubators of huge growth and innovation. They are the focal points of globalisation as well as the driving forces for development; they harbour a wide spectrum of human skill and potential, creativity, social interaction and cultural diversity. Megacities are also foci of global risk. They are increasingly vulnerable systems because they often harbour pronounced poverty, social inequality and environmental degradation, all of which are linked together by a complex system supplying goods and services. People from different socioeconomic groups and corresponding political allegiances may become segregated geographically, creating disparities
21 and conflict. Population density increases vulnerability to natural and man-made hazards. Thus, megacities, exposed to the global environmental, socio-economic and political changes to which they contribute, are both victims and producers of risk. We cannot understand the role of the megacities in our world today, unless we know their dynamics. A megacity is a
Coastal cities are facing a new threat due to climatic change
complex organism and its growth is largely spontaneous process. Experience in the past has clearly shown that megacity is not an entity that can be completely designed. Most of these projects to help low-income A number of planning failures in the past has clearly demonstrated that megacity is not an entity that can be completely designed. Many megacities in the world have had
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specially chalked out projects to help low-income residents of their cities, almost all of them failed to deliver. But experts feel that a megacity cannot be totally designed, but it can be guided in ittes evolution through realistic planning. Such a realistic planning, however, has to begin finding right answers to several questions the megacities pose. Why do megacities attract people? Why do such large populations flow to them and want to live in them? In the developing world, megacities attract those who are seeking a better life — a higher standard of living, better jobs, fewer hardships, and better education. The second question is: Why, if they have such force of attraction, do megacities have what appears to be a formidable set of increasingly intractable problems? The problems of megacities include: Explosive population growth. Alarming increases in poverty that contradict the reasons why a megacity attracts. A concentration of the poor and jobless occurs both in the developing world and, on a smaller scale, in the developed world, as evidenced by the number of unemployed in New York City. Massive infrastructure deficits in transport facilities and roads, leading to traffic snarls and congestion. The paucity of quality drinking water and lack of proper sanitation facilities and sewer systems. Pressures on land and housing. China concentrates 5.7 persons per room, as compared to 0.5 persons in the United States. Environmental concerns, such as contaminated water, air pollution, unchecked weed growth due to the destruction of original vegetation, and overdrawn aquifers. Disease, high death rates, drug-resistant strains of infection, and lethal environmental conditions. For
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23
example, 12.6 percent of the deaths in Jakarta are related to air pollution causes (World Resources Institute, 1996). Economic dependence on federal or state governments that constrains the independence of megacity administrations. Capital scarcity, the factor that shapes the economy of the megacity and aggravates its other problems, from infrastructure to environmental deterioration. These problems are quite common in other cities too, but are more exacerbated in the megacities as they are experiencing very rapid growth with which they cannot cope. Coincident with rapid growth, these problems are occurring in environments where the populations, having flocked to the megacities in hopes of a better life, have ever higher expectations which are generally greater than the ability of a megacity to respond to them.
Megacity problems are aggravated by what are usually serious deficits in the realm of knowledge. These are deficits in the generation of knowledge, such as the research necessary to address the problems of the megacity, and in the dissemination of knowledge, e.g., in the educational systems. Equally serious are deficits in the utilisation of knowledge by the relatively poor and uneducated populations of the megacities. Since megacities are larger than many a nation, they need to address these crucial deficits in knowledge with the same seriousness with which nations address them, through
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MEGACITIES
research, education, and other instruments for the generation, diffusion, and utilisation of knowledge. Of all the challenges confronting the megacities, one of the most difficult and urgent for their stability, and for that matter that of the entire world, is employment. According to the Global Employment Trends released by the United Nations International Labour Organization in January 2006, there are 192 million unemployed people in the world. Another 1.4 billion workers do not earn enough to lift themselves and their families above the $2 a day poverty line. One billion more jobs will have to be provided in the next 25 years, a substantial portion of them in the megacities. This will be an enormous challenge, as it calls for a drastic transformation of the work picture in the megacities of the developing world. Today those megacities are characterised by substantial unemployment, low productivity among those who are employed, a large service sector, a small manufacturing sector, and a large and generally inefficient government sector. There is also a large informal sector of employment in family enterprises and small enterprises, from peddlers to small retail stores, which is quite different from the formal sector of large companies and the government. The employment difficulties are compounded by limited job mobility, inadequate transportation to jobs for poorer citizens, and the lack of legal protection for workers, particularly in the informal sector. This lack of jobs, coupled with the lack of housing and the conditions of life at the margins of the megacity, physically speaking in the slums, and figuratively speaking in the lack of sufficient attention to needs, has led to the growth of a fundamentalism, the roots of which are mainly economic rather than religious. To understand the dynamics of the megacities is also to understand their dilemmas. Dilemmas confront all large cities, but they are much more dramatic in the megacities of the
Megacity Dynamics
25
High rising building with new architect and design
developing world. The first set of dilemmas could be called “mayor’s dilemmas” — how to balance growth and stability and how to avoid vicious circles in development. Balancing growth and stability entails questions of equity versus efficiency, efficiency versus jobs, and equity versus global competition. A megacity exists in a global market which, if the city is to get its share, constrains the ability to continue to offer economically inefficient jobs to the population — the very jobs that are needed to maintain internal stability. A vicious circle in the development of a megacity is that of attraction, growth, and disatraction, as exemplified by Bangalore, a city that offers a good base for growth in terms of a favourable climate, a skilled population, and a good transportation system. That base has led to a strong migration into Bangalore, which, in turn, has led to high real estate costs,
26
MEGACITIES
the creation of slums, health care problems, environmental problems, and shortages of water and energy. This is not exclusively a problem of a developing world megacity. It is often encountered, in different ways, in developed world environments such as the Research Triangle Park in North Carolina. It is, however, far more serious in the developing world, if the hopes that major urban conglomerates be key instruments of social and economic development, rather than of despair, are not to be dashed. The mayor’s dilemmas are often exacerbated by an excessive dependence of the megacity — typical in the developing world — on central federal or state governments. How to lessen that dependence is a challenge both for the megacity and for the nation in which it is embedded. A fundamental rethinking of the city-nation relationship is required, if the nation is to draw the maximum benefit from the megacity and the megacity is to attempt to solve successfully its key problems. Another facet of this problem is the national dilemma of the balance of focus between a megacity and the rest of the country; that is, the extent to which megacities should receive the lion’s share of attention, as often happens to the detriment of other urban areas and the rest of the country. A corollary question is how to slow down the growth of megacities in order to give them the breathing space necessary to provide adequate jobs and infrastructure to their existing populations. Part of the national dilemma is how to find alternatives to megacities by creating or strengthening smaller cities that would offer most of the advantages of a megacity but fewer problems, or by finding other ways of anchoring to the countryside the population that would like to migrate to the megacities. Many experiments to deflect growth from the megacities have failed, however, so the growth continues irrepressibly with serious
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27
social consequences — alienated populations that can find neither jobs nor adequate shelter. A recent example that does not seem to have worked as intended is the attempt by Turkey to create a number of new universities away from the major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, as instruments for catalyzing growth and anchoring population there.
How to keep balance between a megacity and rest of countrya new national dilemma
The solutions to the problems and dilemmas of developing world megacities are complex. However, some approaches are essential, such as adopting “efficiency” policies, focusing on appropriate education, developing credit and capital, encouraging community participation, and focusing on technology. Policies aimed at using more efficiently the resources of the megacities and at developing more efficient systems include
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MEGACITIES
the obvious fiscal discipline; the necessity to create financial reforms and to facilitate self-help activities and the work of entrepreneurs; the removal of institutional barriers such as those to home ownership; and the development of more efficient public-private interfaces. They also include the implementation of municipal service subsidies only for persons
An urban Super Market
in need, instead of for services as a whole (usually a recipe for infrastructure deterioration); the deregulation, within limits that do not destroy social stability, of a highly regimented labor market; and essential cross-sectoral integrations, such as those of jobs and transportation and of land use and housing. The importance of education, as well as of developing adequate credit and capital, is self-evident. The importance of intelligently designed community participation in decisions about the level, quality, and cost of services cannot be
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29
sufficiently stressed. Participatory planning does not mean that the community as a whole plans, but that it gets heard and involved in the planning process. This is a powerful, if often inadequately used, mechanism for avoiding costly solutions or solutions that fail to satisfy the needs of the population, for making the role of the megacity government more efficient,
A close look at a coastal megacity
and, above all, for enabling the users of the megacity infrastructure, from transportation to schools to housing, to acquire a sense of ownership. In solving the problems of the megacities, technology is key to providing more choices, to making available better tools
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to address the challenges, and to generating new markets and thus new opportunities for economic development and employment (Bugliarello, 1994; OECD, 1992). In order to carry out this role, a set of issues needs to be addressed in a different context from that of the developed world. One such issue is the adoption of appropriate standards that provide for the sufficient safety and protection of the users and consumers, but that do not unduly inhibit economic development by forcing the adoption of approaches that are too costly. A second set of policy issues includes the extent to which new technologies are needed, as opposed to technologies that may be already in existence elsewhere but are locally new. That is, existing technologies can be provided in new packages to better respond to the needs of megacities, and locally produced technologies can be used instead of imported ones. Policies are also needed to preserve the coexistence of new and older technologies (for instance, motorized transportation, bicycles, and animal transportation); to develop joint efforts with other cities to solve common problems that are beyond the capabilities of a single megacity; and to determine the appropriate balances between what can be done at a household level and what can be built at the city level (for instance, the extent to which housing can be built with self-help, rather than with large city intervention, or the extent to which energy can be generated, or waste can be processed at the household level, rather than through city networks). Policies must also decide on the balances between soft and hard solutions, for example, the extent to which human labor can be used instead of machines, or whether traffic instrumentation and controls can lessen the need for road construction. Other needed balances are between local and regional focus, such as suburban versus central city development, as well as between the needs of the residents and those of commuters, which often represent a substantial element of the daily population of the megacity (in
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31
Cairo, for example, there are 2 million commuters versus 11 million inhabitants [Rodenbeck, 1999]). Finally, policies need to establish an appropriate balance between free market activities and interventions, a balance difficult to attain because of its impacts on social stability. An important aspect of the quest for a proper balance between efficiency and stability is the issue of subsidies. Experience in developing countries shows that subsidization of an entire service often leads to its deterioration when it overburdens a city budget and the city cannot maintain the service at an adequate level. Thus, both efficiency and sound technological development demand that users should pay for the services they receive, and only those users who cannot pay should be subsidized. In terms of technological needs, developing world megacities demand a philosophy for standards and specifications that is different from that of the developed world. In developing world megacities, standards and specifications should favor low-cost technologies that require little maintenance and are easy to repair, instead of more advanced, high-performance technologies. Too often, imports from the developed world fall rapidly into disrepair because they tend to require high maintenance and may be hard to repair. There is little point, for instance, to require air conditioning in transit vehicles if after a while the inability to adequately maintain it leads the passengers to open or even break the windows of the vehicles. “Good enough” technologies are called for, that is, technological solutions that are adequate for the needs of the megacities, but not so refined as to entail high engineering, construction, or operational costs. Technologies must also account for a different labormachine equation than would be found in a highly developed
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economy. For instance, the sorting of material from urban waste is a significant and traditional source of employment in the poorer cities; it should be replaced by machines only when alternate and more favorable job opportunities are created. Until that occurs, mechanizing the process may be technically elegant and aesthetically pleasing, but could be socially destabilizing, even if it goes against the grain of a developed world engineering and social view. In brief, differences in social and physical environments and customs make it imperative to focus in appropriate ways on the social and environmental acceptability of a technology. Lastly, the export potential of a given technology introduced or developed in a megacity has to be considered; if there is a potential market for the technology, it could enhance the economic viability of the megacity. Examples of needed technologies range from simpler vehicles with high local content to local energy transformers, cheap people-movers, and flexible multimodal systems for transportation, water supply, and waste removal. In each of these cases, the trunk systems — whether streetcars, gas pipelines, water mains, or sewers — need to be extended by flexible systems that provide services to those poorer segments of the population that are often concentrated at the margin of the megacity, as in the barrios or favelas. Those margins tend to expand more rapidly than the ability of the city to expand its trunk infrastructure — particularly water supply and sewage systems, as well as expressways and rail systems — to reach the periphery. In due time, some poor regions of a megacity improve economically and the trunk systems can be extended to them; but new marginal areas will arise that again will require flexible systems. Given the importance of self-help initiatives, megacities need materials, supplies, methods, and organization to enable
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their citizens to help themselves. Finally, “per use” systems are needed to make it possible to charge those who are capable of paying for the use of expressways, water systems, and other services, while subsidies are provided only for those who cannot afford to pay the full rate. Technologies and products to respond to the needs of the developing world megacities represent major market
New challenges: How to provide safety and protection for vertically growing cities
opportunities for both the megacities themselves and for the rest of the world. Those markets can be satisfied by products from inside the megacities or by products coming from anywhere else. However, for products coming from more advanced industrial economies, the market represented by developing world megacities cannot be viewed just as an extension of domestic markets, as seems often to be the case today. A megacity is a new kind of market that has new
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requirements, but also, given its large size, offers substantial opportunities to whomever, in either the developing or the developed world, recognizes it and has the skills and patience to pursue it. The market opportunities can be enhanced by aggregating the markets of several megacities, and by devising new appropriate technologies. Strategies that the developing world megacities need to consider in order to encourage these opportunities include creating effective interfaces between public and private sectors, providing incubators for new or locally new appropriate technologies, and developing joint efforts with other megacities to create a consolidated market, starting with a program of research and development to support the technology needs they have in common (World’s Scientific Academies, 1996). An idea of the size and growth of the megacities market is conveyed by the size of the population of the 11 largest agglomerates in Figure 1, which is projected to go from 162 million in 1994 to 240 million in 2016 — an increase of 80 million people in just those 11 cities. An important element of a global market strategy for a megacity is the development of educational thrusts oriented toward that market. Computer education is already making many developing world megacities into sources of software for the developed world. Low labour costs give developing world megacities an advantage when it comes to peopleintensive services such as tourism, maintenance, or even, possibly, some aspects of health care. There is no reason, for instance, why megacities could not become places for doing the labor-intensive tasks required to maintain technologies of the developed world, or for providing low-cost, personnelintensive health care assistance for certain chronic diseases. In conclusion, the large urban agglomerates we call megacities are increasingly a developing world phenomenon
Megacity Dynamics
35 Box. 3: Hard facts
Some of the major urbanisation trends in the 21st century highlighted in the UN-Habitat State of the World’s Cities 2006/7 report include: By 2030 there will be 5 billion people living in cities. Cities of the developing world will account for 95 per cent of urban expansion in the next two decades and by 2030 will be home to 80 per cent of the world’s urban population (4 billion people). Sub-Saharan Africa has the world’s highest annual urban growth rate (4.58%) and highest slum growth rate (4.53%). Over half the world’s urban population will be living in Asia (2.66 billion). More Africans will be living in cities than the total population of Europe (748 million). There will be more and more Metacities with populations of more than 20 million especially in Asia, Latin America and Africa. The fastest urban growth, spurred by migration from the countryside, will occur in small cities and towns of less than 1 million inhabitants.
that will affect the future prosperity and stability of the entire world. It is important for both the developing world and the developed world to understand megacities’ dynamics, their immense problems and needs, and the economic and market development opportunities they may offer. The evolution of megacities in the developing world will shape patterns of national and global economies, will continue to affect the settlement of vast populations, and will influence the social and political dynamics of the world. Although the megacities are not different in many respects from other urban
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concentrations, they play a key role on the global stage by virtue of their very size. The megacities of the developing world, confronted by nearly intractable problems, have a pervasive and crucial need for policies and socio-technological and socioeconomic approaches that must be devised in a different context than that of the developed world — a context with different settings, different needs, different challenges, and different opportunities.
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4 Slums: An Urban Reality
A
ll major cities in the world have one thing in common: a sizeable population of underprivileged people. These people, constitute about a third of the population in megacities, eke out a miserable living in more ways than one. They live in inadequate housing, are often jobless and have access to no or few basic services. Their living environment is overcrowded and is surrounded by filth and squalor. The very dream of landing better employment in big cities, leading to better living and better education for the offspring, eludes them as the majority fails to find adequate work. The word “slum” first appeared in 19th century London. With the advent of industrial revolution, there had been unprecedented demand for labour, thousands started migrating from countryside to London and nearby cities. This flocking working class population moved into overcrowded and poorly serviced tenements, living close to the factories and industrial plants that employed them. The term referred to what was initially designated “a room of low repute”, but over time took on the generic definition, “a squalid and overcrowded urban area inhabited
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by very poor people”. Although slums continued to grow over the course of the last two centuries, their evolution was particularly swift in the latter half of the 20th century as the developing world became more urbanized. Today’s slums are much larger and have many more residents than the slums prevalent in 19th century Europe and North America. The slum population of Rio de Janeiro, for example, is almost the same size as the total population of Helsinki. Mumbai’s more than 5 million slum dwellers exceed the total population of Nairobi. Slum dwellers now live primarily in the cities of Africa, Asia and Latin America, although a smaller number also live in cities of the developed world. Will slums become a predominant type of settlement in the 21st century? If no preventive or remedial action is taken, they may indeed come to characterize cities in many parts of the developing world. It is generally assumed that urban populations are healthier, more literate and more prosperous than rural populations. But this myth was broken by UN-Habitat report 2006/7 which showed that the urban poor from an urban penalty: Slum dwellers in developing countries are as badly off, if not worse off, than their rural counterparts. The report puts together concrete data to demonstrate that the world’s one billion slum dwellers are more likely to die earlier, experience more hunger and disease, attain less education and have fewer chances of employment than those urban residents that do not reside in a slum. “For a long time, we suspected that the optimistic picture of cities did not reflect the reality on the ground,” Mrs Anna Tibaijuka, UN-Habitat Executive Director, was quoted as saying. The UN-Habitat report “privies concrete evidence that
Slums: An Urban Reality
39
there are two citites within one city – one part of the urban population that has all the benefits of urban living, and the other part, the slums and squatter settlements, where the poor often live under wore conditions that their rural relatives. It is time that donor agencies and national governments recognized the urban penalty and specially targeted additional resources to improve the living conditions of slum dwellers. Janice Perlman, in a 2000 study, loathed the fact that despite overwhelming urban trends, only 10 per cent of all international assistance funding goes to cities, with the rest 90 per cent is still targeted at rural areas. She said this is done in a misguided belief that investment rural development will somehow stem the tide of cityward migration. Regardless of the type of city, every country has responded to the “urban explosion” by trying to limit the growth of its largest cities. These efforts have included restricting in-migration, dispersing the would-be migrants, and stimulating rural development in hopes of equalizing the level of living in the countryside and the city. These efforts have met with limited success in the developing world. Some, such as rural development, have even proven counterproductive, actually hastening out-migration from the countryside. The UN report brought out remarkable similarities between slums and rural areas in health, education, employment and mortality. It showed how in countries like Bangladesh, India and Ethiopia, child malnutrition in slums is comparable to that of rural area. In many Sub-Saharan African cities, children living in slums are more likely to die from waterborne and respiratory illnesses than rural children. Women living in slums are also more likely contract HIV/AIDS than their rural counterparts. These differences are attributed to the poor living conditions in slums, which expose women and children to a variety of health hazards and force girls and women to engage in
40
MEGACITIES
Slums: An Urban Reality
41
Slums- An Urban Reality
42
MEGACITIES
In many developing country the urbanisation has become virtually synonymous with slum formation
sexually risky behaviour. Similarly, studies have shown that both in developed and developing countries job applicants from lowincome neighbourhoods or slums are less likely to be called for interviews than those who reside in better-off localities. Thereby, their chances of shaking off poverty are limited. The vast majority of slums, more than 90 per cent, are located in cities of the developing world, where urbanization has become virtually synonymous with slum formation. This is especially so in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Asia and Western Asia, where urban growth over the last 15 years has been accompanied by a commensurate growth in slums. Asia
Slums: An Urban Reality
43
is already home to more than half of the global slum population (581 million), followed by sub-Saharan Africa (199 million), and Latin America and the Caribbean (134 million). Slum and urban growth rates are highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, 4.53 per cent and 4.58 per cent per year, respectively – nearly twice those of Southern Asia, where slum and urban growth rates are 2.2 per cent and 2.89 per cent per year, respectively. In Western Asia, annual slum and urban growth rates are quite similar, at 2.71 per cent and 2.96 per cent respectively, while in Eastern Asia and Latin America, slum growth rates are significantly lower than urban growth rates, although slum growth rates are relatively high in both regions: 2.28 per cent and 1.28 per cent per year, respectively. South-Eastern Asia and Northern Africa are two regions where the proportion of slum dwellers has actually declined in recent years from over 36 per cent of the urban population in 1990 to approximately 25 per cent in 2005. Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean also have urban growth rates that are higher than slum growth rates. This suggests that countries within these regions have in recent years taken active steps to reduce the number of slum dwellers or prevent slum formation. Some of the major urbanisation trends in the 21st century highlighted in the UN-Habitat Stet of the World’s Cities 2006/ 7 report include: By 2030 there will be 5 billion people living in cities. Cities of the developing world will account for 95 per cent of urban expansion in the next two decades and by 2030 will be home to 80 per cent of the world’s urban population (4 billion people). Sub-Saharan Africa has the world’s highest annual urban growth rate (4.58%) and highest slum growth rate (4.53%).
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MEGACITIES
Over half the world’s urban population will be living in Asia (2.66 billion). More Africans will be living in cities than the total population of Europe (748 million). There will be more and more Metacities with populations of more than 20 million especially in Asia, Latin America and Africa. The fastest urban growth, spurred by migration from the countryside, will occur in small cities and towns of less than 1 million inhabitants.
Slums: Some Definitions UN-Habitat defines a slum household as a group of individuals living under the same roof in an urban area who lack one or more of the following: 1. Durable housing of a permanent nature that protects against extreme climate conditions. 2. Sufficient living space which means not more than three people sharing the same room. 3. Easy access to safe water in sufficient amounts at an affordable price. 4. Access to adequate sanitation in the form of a private or public toilet shared by a reasonable number of people. 5. Security of tenure that prevents forced evictions. Not all slums are homogeneous and not all slum dwellers suffer from the same degree of deprivation. The degree of deprivation depends on how many of the five conditions that define slums are prevalent within a slum household. UN-Habitat analyses show that Sub-Saharan Africa’s slums are the most deprived; over 80 per cent of the region’s slum households have one or two shelter deprivations, but almost half suffer from at least two shelter deprivations. Approximately one-fifth of slum households live in extremely
Slums: An Urban Reality
45
poor conditions, lacking more than three basic shelter needs. Generally, the lack of sanitation and water in the region’s slums is compounded by insufficient living space for families and inadequate, makeshift housing. Even though any one of the above five conditions are used to identify slums, only the first four contribute to a definition of those who suffer from shelter deprivation. Though lack of security of tenure is one of the conditions in most slums, it is not directly related to an assessment of shelter conditions. The UN report also brought out remarkable similarities between slums and rural areas in health, education, employment and mortality. It showed how in countries like Bangladesh, India and Ethiopia, child malnutrition in slums is comparable to that of rural area. In many Sub-Saharan African cities, children living in slumsare more likely to die from waterborne and respiratory illnesses than rural children. Women living in slums are also more likely contract HIV/AIDS than their rural counterparts. These differences are attributed to the poor living conditions in slums, which expose women and children to a variety of health hazards and force girls and women to engage in sexually risky behaviour. Similarly, studies have shown that both in developed and developing countries job applicants from low-income neighbourhoods or slums are less likely to be called interviews than those who reside in better-off localities. Thereby, their chances of shaking off poverty are limited. Although poverty considered as a primarily a rural phenonmenon, it has aleady become a severe, pervasive and largely unacknowledged feature of urban life. Large sections of the urban population, particularly in megacities, are suffering from extreme deprivation. Data show that incidence of disease and mortality is much higher in slums than in non-slum urban
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MEGACITIES
areas. National governments that have been recording national human development indices in various sectors have been largely dividing their administrative areas geographically: urban and rural. As a result, for long, they failed to notice urban poverty and other gross deprivations that go on in a city. This was mainly because statistics failed to properly reflect the ground reality. Statistics show that urban populations are better off than those living in villages: they tend to enjoy more access to services and generally perform well on a range of human development indicators, including life expectancy and literacy. The wealth amassed by the rich and a growing middle class always gave a statistical boost to urban areas. Be it per capita income, number of hospital beds or educational facilities, cities are always found to be far ahead of the hinterland. But what planners and experts overlooked, or failed to notice, was that all these facilities are inaccessible to a vast majority of urban population. Only recently evidence has emerged to suggest suggests that urban poverty in many developing countries is becoming as severe and dehumanizing as rural poverty. The vast majority of slums, more than 90 per cent, are located in cities of the developing world, where urbanisation has become virtually synonymous with slum formation. This is especially so in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Asia and Western Asia, where urban growth over the last 15 years has been accompanied by a commensurate growth in slums. Asia is already home to more than half of the global slum population (581 million), followed by sub-Saharan Africa (199 million), and Latin America and the Caribbean (134 million). Slum and urban growth rates are highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, 4.53 per cent and 4.58 per cent per year, respectively – nearly twice those of Southern Asia, where slum and urban growth rates are 2.2 per cent and 2.89 per cent per year, respectively. In Western Asia, annual slum and urban growth
Slums: An Urban Reality
47
rates are quite similar, at 2.71 per cent and 2.96 per cent respectively, while in Eastern Asia and Latin America, slum growth rates are significantly lower than urban growth rates, although slum growth rates are relatively high in both regions: 2.28 per cent and 1.28 per cent per year, respectively. South-Eastern Asia and Northern Africa are two regions where the proportion of slum dwellers has actually declined in recent years from over 36 per cent of the urban population in 1990 to approximately 25 per cent in 2005. Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean also have urban growth rates that are higher than slum growth rates. This suggests that countries within these regions have in recent years taken active steps to reduce the number of slum dwellers or prevent slum formation. The United Nations lists improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020 as one of its Millennium Development Goals. The UN estimates that such an ambitious project may cost up to 67 billion US Dollars. The rate at which slums are growing exceeds the rate at they are being improved. This severely impacts such achievements. Since 2000, some 200 million slum dwellers have been added to the world’s urban population. If this current trend continues, by 2020, there will be 400 million more people drawn into the misery of slum life and the global slum population will rise to 1.4 billion. If this additional 400 million people in slums by 2020 were too to be given access to basic services and decent housing, there will be an additional bill of 300 billion US Dollars, or 20 billion US Dollars annually. According to UN-Habitat, official development assistance and private and public investment underwrites only 5 to 10 per cent of slum upgrade requirements in sub-Saharan Africa,
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Box 4: Glaring glitches
Worldwide, 18 per cent of all urban housing units (some 125 million units) are non-permanent structures and at least 25 per cent of all housing (175 million houses) does not meet urban construction codes. This figure, in reality, is probably much higher. For every 10 non-permanent houses in the cities of developing countries, 3 or 4 are located in areas prone to floods, landslides, hurricanes and earthquakes. When four or more people live together in one tiny room, they experience a loss of dignity and are susceptible to infectious diseases and domestic violence. Children’s development suffers through being unable to do homework in a quiet space, poor sleep, illness, abuse and violence. Overcrowding is an insignificant problem in the developed world. For instance, less than 1 per cent of the Canadian population shares a room with more than three people. In 2003, two-thirds of overcrowding was in Asia with half of the people (156 million) in Southern Asia. Between 1990 and 2002, some 1.1 billion people were able to access safe drinking water, a global rise in coverage from 77 per cent to 83 per cent. But the number of people without access to improved water will double between 1990 and 2010 from 108 million to 215 million. Only two-thirds of the global urban population gets water from a tap. Per capita consumption varies widely between rich nations (500-800 litres a day) and poor nations (60-150 litres a day). Access to good water often varies greatly within a city even though UN statistics state that 95 per cent of the world’s urban residents have “improved” water which is why in India 65% of hospital in-patients are treated for waterborne diseases.
Slums: An Urban Reality
49
Sanitation and health are interlinked. As many as 1.6 million people die annually as a result of poor sanitation and hygiene – a number 5 times greater than the deaths in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The absence of decent toilets in poor neighbourhoods violates a person’s right to privacy and is an affront to his or her dignity. Yet, more than 25 per cent of city dwellers (2.6 billion) suffer this condition. In 2002, nearly half the developing world (2.5 billion) had no access to proper sanitation – Asia (1.98 billion), Africa (470 million), Latin America and the Caribbean (130 million). In the Mbare neighbourhood of Zimbabwe’s Harare, up to 1,300 people share one communal toilet with only 6 squatting holes. In Nepal, two-thirds of the population defecates in the open because they consider their existing latrines to be unsanitary and unsafe. Women bear the brunt of the consequences of inadequate sanitation, but this has not been a development priority on the UN agenda. A global survey in 60 countries found that 6.7 million people were forcibly evicted from their homes between 2000 and 2002 compared to 4.2 million between 1998 and 2002. Non-empirical evidence indicates that 30-50 per cent of urban residents in the developing world have no legal document such as title deed or a contract to prove tenure security. Reports suggest that the magnitude of urban evictions is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa which is partially due to the failure to organize politically at community levels. In Asia, better legislation and strong civil society action has improved tenure for slum dwellers although this trend is in danger of being reversed in industrialising cities.
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Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia. So, there is a need for an international aid of 5 billion US Dollars annually to close the financing gap. This is nearly equal to 20 per cent of investment needed for developing world slum improvements. Financial assistance from the World Bank and bilateral donors may be to slum improvement, but there is need to create innovative financial institutions and instruments to provide access to capital markets. UN-HABITAT has already established a Slum Upgrading Facility (SUF) in partnership with several donor agencies and development agencies to attract multiple forms of financing for slum upgrade programmes. But, the situation may deteriorate in these countries unless innovations are pursued rigorously. Successful models have demonstrated that when supported by local and central governments, local residents can provide about 80 per cent of resources required for slum upgrades, what is needed is Public sector borrowing to fund slum upgrades and support for slum dwellers savings associations and credit schemes. India’s recently-launched Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) is one such programme. The largest national initiative in the urban sector, JNNURM stipulates mandatory reform of basic services and land tenure. Already in force, is scheduled to be implemented over the next 6 years.
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5 Megacities-Mumbai
J
anice Perlman, famous urban planning expert in the US, feels that there are four distinct characteristics that mark the recent trends in population. First, shift from a predominantly rural world to a predominant urban settlement, secondly, the total reversal of the locus of major cities, from highly industrialized economies of the north to developing countries of the south. Thirdly, the transformation of urban habitats from cities of elites to cities of the masses, with a corresponding shift to formal economy to an informal economy and lastly, population explosion in cities since the middle of the 20th century have converted many major cities to megacities, with populations of more than 10 million. Megacities are unique because the sheer size and scale of such urban agglomerations presents a situation unparallel in history. There is no collective experience to solve its problems. No precedent exists for feeding, sheltering, educating, or transporting so many people in such dense and heterogeneous conditions. Regardless of historic, economic, political, or socio-cultural differences, all of these cities face increasing demands on limited city budgets, extreme polarisation between rich and poor, and severe
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environmental strain, stretching to the limit the carrying capacities of their surrounding areas. Newspapers in the past and present have widely reported the problems faces by these megacities – such as traffic congestion, air pollution, crime, and drinking water contamination. But, what the mass media have failed to spot is their energy, vitality, and opportunity, which exert a magnetic force, attracting the best talent and most highly motivated people. What sets apart megacities from capital cities (capitals of nation states) and global cities (capitals of capital and information flows) is precisely that megacities are capitals of people. People have voted with their feet, seeking a better life, more choice, and wider opportunities for themselves and their children. Be it a megacity in the first world or that in a developing country, they all share many characteristics. Hence, a detailed description of Mumbai, one of the megacities that was subjected to a number of studies, can hold true for most other megacities. Mumbai, the capital city of the state of Maharashtra and India’s most important financial capital, has a population of nearly 18.3 million people, according UN-Habitat report of 2006-07. It is the fourth largest urban agglomeration in the world, after Tokyo, Mexico City and New York-Newark. The city hosts one of the world’s largest slum populations: more than 5 million of the city’s residents are slum dwellers. More people live in Mumbai’s slums than in the entire country of Norway. Slums in Mumbai have always existed. They never underwent any planning, infrastructure construction or implementation of facilities such as water, sewage and drainage. This has led to many problems with Mumbai’s poor population. Slums have risen dramatically since 1950.
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Most of this is due to the fact that Mumbai’s size tripled since India’s independence in 1947. The island of Bombay is about 20 kilometres long, and Greater Mumbai, including Salsette Island, occupies an area of 620 square kilometres and it has a density of nearly 27,000 people per square kilometre, extremely dense. Add all of these elements to the fact that housing in Mumbai is scarce and expensive. In 1976, the Government passed the Urban Land Act which was supposed to enlarge the area on which middle and lower class housing was to be built, however the act has been used, once again in the elitist fashion, to build more upper class housing and to keep hold of wealthy neighborhoods which has only worsened the slum problem. Before 1950 slums were predominantly found around the mills, on the western part of the island, predominantly in an area called Byculla. They were mostly industrial workers in one room tenements. Health and provisions to these areas were issues that were ignored by key policy makers. Instead of going away, the slums have just spread. From 1950 to1968 the amount of slums increased 18 per cent, in the 1970s they had a huge surge and by 1980 slum dwellers were half of the entire city’s population. All this despite the fact that the city underwent slum clearance, implemented by the Municipal Corporation in 1954. Despite its large slum population – or, as some would argue, because of it – Mumbai has emerged as one of India’s leading commercial and cultural centres, home to the country’s hugely successful film industry and a booming stock exchange. The city alone pays almost 40 per cent of the nation’s taxes. There is a perception among many of the country’s policymakers, however, that Mumbai’s progress is being
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hampered by its image as a city of slum dwellers, which severely erodes its ambitions to become the “Shanghai of India” with clean streets, gleaming skyscrapers and a modern and efficient transport and communications network. This perception was reinforced in late 2004 when the Indian government embarked on a campaign to make Mumbai a
“world-class city” in response to a call by the Indian Prime Minister in October 2004 to transform Mumbai into an international hub for trade and commerce. The call was supported by Maharashtra’s chief minister, who submitted an ambitious four-year, $8 billion proposal for modernizing Mumbai, which included the building of new roads, a subway system and a large-scale public housing project. The modernization proposal followed an earlier Slum Rehabilitation Scheme in the mid-1990s that aimed to improve the lives of 4 million slum dwellers through public-private
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partnerships that involved builders in the private sector and the authorities. Slums eventually spread into the areas neighboring Byculla, such as: Mahim Creek, Parel, Dadar and Matunga and wherever else they can find space, even on the roads. The conditions in the slums are terrible. Slum inhabitants constantly have to deal with issues such as, constant migration, lack of water, no sewage or solid waste facilities, lack of public transit, pollution and housing shortages. Infant mortality is as high as it is in rural India where there are no amenities. General Hospitals in the Greater Mumbai region are overcrowded and under-resourced. In fact, most people rely on private doctors, many of which do not have any qualifications or official training. The World Bank has funded development of 176 Primary Care Dispensaries, but they are finding that those efforts are underused and the water supplies to the area are problematic. It seems that the water supply is always too much or too little, for when monsoon season hits some slums are submerged knee deep in water. In 1985, the government tried to rectify the problem by passing the Slum Upgradation Project. It offered secure longterm legal plot tenure to slum households on the basis that they would invest in their housing. By guaranteeing home ownership, they hoped to obliterate slums. Unfortunately the program targeted only 10-12 per cent of the slum population, those who were capable of upgrading their homes. It disregarded those who did not have homes at all. Despite all the attempts to remedy the slum problem of Mumbai, slums are still growing. The slum growth rate is actually greater than the general urban growth rate. In fact, the city is gaining the name “Slumbay.”
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In late 2004, despite progressive slum improvement and tenure regularization policies and programmes, the government of Maharashtra began a slum demolition drive aimed at removing slums and shantytowns in the city. Between December 2004 and March 2005, more than 90,000 shanties were torn down, in violation of poll promises, international covenants to which India is a signatory and a 2001 Slum Areas Act, which protected all slums built prior to 1995. [The Act stipulates that all slum dwellers who could establish that their names were on the electoral roll on 1 January 1995 were protected, to the extent that their homes could not be demolished without rehabilitation.] Amid public outcry and pressure from the ruling Congress party, the demolitions were halted in February 2005, but many believe that the plan to make Mumbai a world-class city is still very much on the cards. But those who oppose demolition drive have consistently argued that it is Mumbai’s poor, who allow the city to flourish by providing cheap labour and services. The poor work as refuse collectors, construction labourers, handcart pullers, vegetable vendors, factory workers, domestic workers and so on. They provide goods and services at rates that most of the city’s people can afford. But when it comes to their housing, the city turns its back on them, they feel. Despite the active role played by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and slum federations in the city, the situation of slum dwellers in Mumbai remains dire. A recent survey for the Mumbai Sewerage Disposal Project found that 42 per cent of slum dwellings in the city had an area of less than 10 square metres and only 9 per cent had an area of more than 20 square metres. Almost half of the households in slums got their water from shared standpipes and only 5 per cent had direct access to water through individual taps. The city’s sanitation situation was even more alarming: 73 per cent of
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the city’s slum households · housing 3.86 million residents – depended exclusively on public toilets. Moreover, overuse and poor maintenance had made public toilets a health hazard, especially in areas where the user group was undefined. Less than one per cent of the slum population had access to individual toilets or to pay-per-use toilets constructed by private agencies or NGOs. Despite the daunting conditions in its slums, Mumbai is a magnet for Indians, not only from neighbouring cities and villages, but also from the rest of the country. According to “Vision Mumbai”, a 2003 report by the private consultancy firm McKinsey & Co, the city urgently needs to build at least 1.1 million affordable housing units in the next decade for current and future generations of slum dwellers and migrants. (Currently, only 58,000 new low-cost housing units are available for pre-1995 slum dwellers.) The report provides the framework for the city’s urban renewal scheme, which, if implemented, will cost upwards of $40 billion over the next decade. City authorities are already looking into how the funds can be raised from Union and state governments and from international lending institutions. Like in so many developing nations, Indian authorities are working to improve infrastructure and slum conditions, but resources are limited. Mumbai’s population will continue to grow. The question is whether the city - and other megacities like it - can take the strain.
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6 Megacity - Transport
T
ransport preoccupies city planners like no other infrastructure issue. Transportation is top of the pile for a number of reasons. Whereas some infrastructure problems, such as lack of water, primarily affect only a section of people in the city, congestion, crowded trains and traffic linked pollution are very visible at all levels of society. Moreover, there is also a clear and direct link between transport and city competitiveness. If megacities are the engines of the global economy, it is the transport network that keeps those engines working efficiently. When roads and railways seize up, or when ports and airports become overloaded, the cost to the economy is high. So, an effective and comfortable transportation is often seen as the single biggest factor in determining a city’s competitiveness. From Tokyo to London to New York, many successful large cities in the world have an efficient mass transit system. Closer home, Mumbai is a good example. But for suburban trains, commuting in Mumbai could have been a grueling experience. It has also played a role in drastically reducing the number of private vehicles on the road. As a result, despite having comparable populations, Mumbai has only a third of Delhi’s private vehicles.
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So, the effective functioning of megacities depends in the most basic way on an efficient transportation system. In many parts of the developing world, however, urban transport is characterised by a rapid growth in demand that has overwhelmed transport capacity. Traffic congestion reduces the productivity of urban agglomerations everywhere, but the consequences in developing-country megacities are greater. Not only is the level of congestion higher in developing-country megacities, but many of these same megacities create a major part of their national gross domestic products. Therefore, reducing urban congestion is a central element of economic growth in these settings. Moreover, reducing congestion will also reduce automobile emissions and thus urban air pollution, which is currently a major health problem in most megacities. According to a recent study conducted by the Confederation of British Industry, the cost of congestion in its cities, including London, is a whopping 38 billion US dollars per year. It is mounting too. Similarly, a survey conducted by Indian trade body ASSOCHAM indicates that congestion leads to a loss of Rs 3000-4000 crore annually in New Delhi. On an average, a person living in Delhi loses as much as 2.5 hours daily before he or she reaches their destination. In addition, the strains placed on the road networks of many large cities have led to significant declines in safety, as well as poor-to-terrible air quality in many places. Perhaps the most compelling aspect of these problems is that the urban poor bear the brunt of both congestion and deteriorating environmental quality because they often face the longest commuting times and spend much of their lives out of doors on congested, noisy, and polluted streets. Developing countries look to the industrialised nations to provide them with models, technologies, and strategies to
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deal with growth in both urbanisation and motorisation. Certainly the experience of cities of the developed world with motorised transportation infrastructure planning and investment exhibits much that is attractive. Large cities in developed countries are productive urban agglomerations
Massive infrastructure deficits in transport facilities and roads, leads to traffic snarls and congestion
whose residents are frequently able to work in the dense centre of the urban area while living in more spacious suburbs. Although many also rely on some form of rail-based mass transit, their life-style is, in most instances, based primarily on a high-quality road infrastructure. Yet western models of urban transport are of limited value for meeting the transportation needs of developing-country
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megacities. For one thing, the benefits of a transportation system designed around the private automobile have come at significant cost in large cities of the developed world. Moreover, given the great differences among the world’s megacities, it is important to recognise both the benefits and costs associated with various strategies for mobility and to choose the investments that hold the most promise for a specific urban setting.
Environmental concern like unchecked pollution is a major issue in growing megacities
There are a number of fundamental differences between the process of motorisation taking place today in developingcountry cities and that which took place in the cities of the developed world. Most important among these is the pace of motorization itself. In the developed countries, cities and their surrounding regions had several decades to respond to the challenges posed by the widespread use of private automobiles
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and increased reliance on trucking for transporting freight. In many cities in the developing world, an equivalent growth is occurring over a decade or two. Moreover, many large cities in the developing world have followed a dense pattern of development that complicates the process of providing roads and public transport services to urban residents. In cities such as Mumbai and Calcutta, for
The growing megacities need modern transportation infrastructure
example, the integration of work, residence, and commerce in the urban core is very high. Developing-country cities generally have much less space allocated to roads than that western cities had during their initial phase of motorisation. In Chinese cities, for example, the amount of land devoted to road space is often less than 10 per cent, while even in 1910, when New York City was at its most dense in terms of population per hectare, roads comprised fully 15 per cent of the urban land area in Manhattan.
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Incidentally, Delhi currently has nearly 20 per cent of its land area under roads. The dense development and relative lack of land devoted to roads make it more difficult to build and operate efficient forms of transportation and increase the cost of acquiring land for expanding the road network. At the same time, developing countries often have fewer resources to devote to the provision of urban transportation infrastructure than did large cities of the industrialised world at the turn of the century. Many industrialised cities had well-established sources of funding for public infrastructure that could be expended over a reasonable time horizon to modernise infrastructure. In contrast, megacities of the developing world must apply limited public revenues to a score of pressing public needs that include not only transportation, but also water and sanitation services, telecommunications, and power supply. In most developingcountry cities, demand for public transportation (both motorised and nonmotorised) has also grown much more rapidly than the population and has far outstripped the growth in revenues available for transportation infrastructure. Furthermore, most residents of developing-country megacities are not in a position to afford motorised public transport, let alone purchase a private vehicle. Any public investment that provides additional capacity for private vehicle use must often come at the expense of investment in public transport or nonmotorised modes that could potentially benefit a far greater number of people. Private vehicles drive few people, but hog up most of the road space. In Delhi, in spite of the phenomenal growth of private vehicles, large numbers – an estimated 60 per cent and above – still travel by bus or bicycle or walk to work. But while cars and two-wheelers move few in our cities, these vehicles
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fill up our road space and add to inefficiency in travel – congestion and pollution. The personal car in India has not replaced the bus, but it has certainly marginalised it. According to the nongovernmental think-tank, Centre for Science and Environment, the share of buses in the total fleet in India has dwindled from 11 per cent in the ‘50s to 1.1 per cent today. “This marginalisation is most acutely seen in the use of road space. In Delhi, personal vehicles – cars and two-
The Metro may provide a solution to urban transportation needs
wheeler — use up more than 75 per cent of the road space but meet only 20 per cent of the commuting demand. But buses that use less than 5 per cent of the road space, meet more than 60 per cent of the travel demand,” it said in a report. Additionally, megacities in developing countries face more problematic obstacles to the implementation of transportation policies than is true of megacities in
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industrialised nations. In some cases, the obstacles are primarily institutional in nature and include overlapping and uncoordinated institutional structures, inadequate or poorly trained technical staff for planning and implementation functions, a lack of legal capacity to enforce regulations and laws, and limited institutional support for new, and often poorly understood, policies. In other instances, the major impediment to the implementation of transport strategies is the political framework in which decision making takes place. These obstacles can be overcome only through a better understanding of the links between policy design and implementation in each particular city, as well as through changes in domestic legislation, the transfer of institutional skills, better training of personnel, and enhanced citizen participation. Although the majority of these strategies fall outside the rubric of traditional transportation policy and are not discussed here in any detail, it is important to recognize the effect of these obstacles on policy implementation. Transportation strategies that are transparent in nature, benefit the elite as well as the average citizen, and do not require large institutional changes are more likely to succeed in the developing-country context. Even within the motorised transport sector, there is a far wider range of options available in developing-country cities than in the developed countries. Urban areas in Africa and Asia are served by a multitude of two- and three-wheeled vehicles, such as auto rickshaws, six-seated passenger vehicles, two- and four-stroke motorcycles, and motor scooters. In these regions, and in Latin America as well, urban roads contain a rich assortment of four-wheeled motor vehicles that includes converted pickups in addition to regular taxis, minibuses, and private cars. The streets of the developing countries are also full of heavy motorised vehicles, including buses, trucks, and tractors. In Latin America, for example, public buses are the
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dominant transport mode in most large cities. Importantly, moreover, much of the transportation service in the developing world is provided by the private sector and receives no public subsidy. At the same time, urbanisation patterns in developing countries are in many ways following the model established by developed economies. With the inevitable growth in urban populations, residents are increasingly locating on cheaper land in the urban periphery. Frequently, moreover, changing residential and intercity transportation patterns also induce a substantial decentralisation of employment. In general, suburbanisation is associated with an increased reliance on motor vehicles and an increase in the number of cars per household, both of which raise the overall level of motorisation further. The differences between developing- and developedcountry cities elaborated above suggest that planning and investing in an automobile-dependent transportation system will be even more costly and difficult in the former than it has been in the latter. At the same time, greater reliance on nonpolluting modes of transportation in developing-country cities, coupled with strong integration of residential and economic activities; suggests those cities may be in a position to avoid some of the most costly mistakes of transportation investment in the industrialised countries. One of the primary motivations for all of the transportation options discussed in this chapter is the contribution of motorised transport to environmental degradation, particularly with respect to air quality. Transport vehicles burning fossil fuels emit pollutants such as hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur oxides (SO2), suspended particulate matter,
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and lead. Moreover, when these pollutants combine, they are potentially more damaging than in their separate forms, and the adverse effects of all pollutants are intensified by the high concentration of motor vehicles and congested driving conditions in most urban areas. Many pollutants can damage human health as well as the environment, but the
Provision for aerial transportation may be a solutution of transportation in growing megacities
two most harmful types of pollutants are probably particulates and lead. Studies released in the last few years indicate that particulates may be the most serious urban air pollution problem. By correlating daily weather, air pollutants, and mortality in six US cities, scientists discovered that nonaccidental death rates are strongly correlated with daily levels of particulates, but not with other pollutants. Other research in 15 US cities indicates that sulfates and fine
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particulate air pollution are associated with a difference of 16 per cent in mortality risks between the most and least polluted cities. Certain particulates, including diesel particles, appear to be especially hazardous because of their chemical composition and extremely small size. A growing body of data on the adverse health effects of lead, especially in young children, indicates there may be no “safe” level, and that lead in gasoline contributes to behavioral problems, lowered IQs, and decreased ability to concentrate in exposed children. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has also uncovered evidence linking lead in the blood and high blood pressure. In addition, the lead scavengers that accompany leaded petrol have been identified as human carcinogens. Inhabitants of cities in developing countries face greater risks from particulates. In general, the levels of local automotive pollution in many large developing-country cities are the source of considerable concern. They result from many of the same factors apparent in industrialised countries, including the content of the fuel, the level of vehicle technology, the level of maintenance and age of a vehicle, driving conditions within the metropolitan area, and the number of vehicles. Unfortunately, in many megacities of the developing world, these variable factors are particularly conducive to high levels of pollutants. Individual vehicle efficiency and emissions can be improved through improvements in fuel quality, advances in vehicle technology, and the adoption and enforcement of national standards. The actions that should receive the highest priority involve improved fuel quality, but the best and most successful strategies rely on a comprehensive approach.
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7 Conclusion
T
he future of the world’s megacities depends solely on sustainable and safer management. For this, megacities require human and natural resources for energy, industry, construction, infrastructure and maintenance. Megacities need these in quantities that trigger severe impact on both immediate environment and the world as a whole. The so-called “ecological footprint” of a megacity extends beyond its boundaries. For instance, a coal-fired thermal power station that supplies electricity to a megacity may be located several hundreds of kilometers away from the city. In the process of generating electricity for the megacity it might belch out noxious fumes and gases in quantities far beyond the carrying capacity of the region. So, every additional unit of electricity used in the megacity leads to corresponding increase in pollution in the vicinity of the power station. Similarly, any urban area, let alone a megacity, can boast of being self-reliant in meeting its water – for drinking as well as for other needs – requirement. As a result, water for municipal supply in the city gathered and purified at faraway regions before being transported to the city through a network of pipes. As the demand for water increases in cities, more water needs to be pumped, often leading to water scarcity in places where it is
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sourced from. This more often than not, leads to conflicts between states. Similarly, air pollution. Megacities, particularly those in developing countries, are the most polluted regions in the world. Highly urbanised regions of the world generate by far the greatest proportion of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas. This is caused by burning of fossil fuels such as petrol and coal. In addition, there are several other harmful toxic gases that leap out into the atmosphere such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen and sulphur oxides thanks to ever increasing vehicular population in cities. It is estimated that urban air pollution kills 3 million people annually. There is of course a need for pursuing sustainable urbanisation policies to reverse the impact of environmental degradation and pollution. Cities, in developed nations, have shown that sound and sustainable land, air and water policies can reduce soil erosion, improve air and water quality and protect biodiversity within cities as well as in their hinterlands. However, most these actions require not just sound planning, but also huge investment. For most developing countries such clean-up” acts are either ill-affordable or fall low down on their priority lists. The success of a megacity is likely to be measured in terms of its economic productivity, social equity and environmental diversity; the latter, which involves diverse land use as well as natural and artificial biotopes, renders megacities attractive and more stable. However, the consequences of success and of high population densities include pollution, energy consumption and waste. These lead to local and wider global environmental impacts that need to be carefully understood, managed and often reduced.
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Box 5: Key questions for survival 1.
What do residents of specific megacities understand by quality of life and what are their particular concepts, desires and needs?
2.
What are the formal and informal drivers and pressures behind planning processes? Who has the power to decide on priorities, funding, and options? Is that power legitimate?
3.
How can “quality of life” be monitored, taking into consideration the uniqueness of values within sociocultural systems?
4.
How will megacities become more competitive, creative and attractive human environments, as well as safer places for people to live?
5.
Is it inevitable that expanding megacities will generate an increasingly disproportionate ecological footprint?
6.
How could better urban design, construction, maintenance and management practices reduce this footprint?
7.
Which drivers and pressures in megacity development contribute to, or hinder, more stable, efficient and sustainable development? How can the interaction of administration, private sector, public and informal activities be improved?
8.
Can megacities provide greater internal efficiency than smaller cities if they are planned and managed properly, or are they inherently unsustainable in the longer term? How can life in a highly urbanised area
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be made as sustainable as life in a sparsely populated rural area? 9.
In what ways are the sustainability and quality of life of megacity residents impaired or improved compared with residents in other areas? How can adverse trends be reversed? How can risks be reduced to an acceptable level?
10. How can we ensure that surface, particularly high-rise, development is well located and safely constructed? How do we ensure that surface and underground development are well integrated so that they complement each other, ensure future sustainable land use, and harmonize with good urban design? 11. What long-term policies, for both surface and underground urban development, can be developed to maintain a balance between economic, social and environmental demands? How can we safeguard surface and groundwater resources? How can we secure food and energy supplies? 12. How can we measure and manage the economic and societal value of the surface and subsurface in megacities, in the context of diverse socio-cultural and political perceptions? What are the visions for, and models of, future megacities? Megacity sprawl commonly encroaches on areas with difficult ground conditions, subject to geohazards, such as flooding or landslides. This makes both initial development and long-term maintenance more expensive. The effects of global environmental and socio-economic change can magnify the risks and impair quality of life for many people. Increasing population density can give rise to increased risks to people
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and property in the face of environmental and man-made hazards. Vigorous economic activity generates individual and societal prosperity and material well being (although often at the price of greater personal, social and environmental stress). However, in times of economic downturn, the consequences of unemployment, loss of social cohesion, collapse of social security and environmental dereliction, can be dramatic for large and concentrated populations. To be sustainable, development must be treated as investment, not consumption. Only in this way will capital be available for future reinvestment. Authorities must control the fabric and land use patterns within a megacity to minimise adverse environmental effects both for the city itself and the hinterland upon which it depends. This requires integrity in resource, logistics (traffic) and waste management, with cost-effective recovery of value, recycling of wastes and materials, and, as far as practicable, reduction of risks to health. International Union of Geological Sciences, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation and Planetearth have put together a set of key research questions for which answers need to be found as part of an extended attempt to make the world’s megacities a better place live on earth. Sustainable and safer development and management of megacities is not vital just for the future of these mammoth urban agglomerations but for the survival of the Planet Earth itself.
Suggested Readings 1.
Megacities – Our global urban future. Earth Sciences for Society Foundation, The Netherlands (2005)
2.
Megacities – Trends and issues towards sustainable urban development. Abbi Sadowski et al (2000)
3.
Megacities Lecture series organised by Megacities Foundation, Amsterdam (1997 onwards)
4.
The Principal Agglomerations of the World. Thomas Brinkhoff (2006)
5.
The State of the World’s Cities reports (2001 onwards)
6.
www.citymayors.com
7.
The Leapfrog Factor: Clearing the air in Asian Cities. Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi. (2005)
8.
Meeting the Challenges of Megacities in the Developing World: A Collection of Working Papers. National Academies Press (1996)
9.
Urban Leadership for 21st century – Janice E Perlman and Elwood M Hopkins (1997)
10.
State of the World 2007 – Our Urban Future. Worldwatch Institute, Washington (2007)
Index B
Hunger, 4, 38
Brown cloud, 15
P
C
Pollutants, 66, 67, 68 Pollution, 4, 16, 17, 19, 22, 23, 52, 55, 58, 59, 61, 64, 67, 68, 69, 70 Public health, 16, 17
Civilisations, 1
D Degradation of urban, 17 Demographic, 4
S
Environmental degradation, 4, 19, 20, 66, 70
Sanitation, 3, 4, 6, 17, 22, 44, 45, 56, 63 Shanties, 3, 56 Sustainability, 3, 19, 72
H
T
Health, 16, 17, 26, 34, 39, 53, 57, 59, 67, 68, 73 Healthcare, 1
Transportation, 6, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30, 32, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67
E
